WorldWideScience

Sample records for based scenario analysis

  1. Scenario analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Li, L.; Braat, L.C.; Lei, G.; Arets, E.J.M.M.; Liu, J.; Jiang, L.; Fan, Z.; Liu, W.; He, H.; Sun, X.

    2014-01-01

    This chapter presents the results of the scenario analysis of China’s ecosystems focusing on forest, grassland, and wetland ecosystems. The analysis was undertaken using Conversion of Land Use Change and its Effects (CLUE) modeling and an ecosystem service matrix (as explained below) complemented by

  2. Hybrid Scenario Based Performance Analysis of DSDV and DSSR

    CERN Document Server

    Majumder, Koushik; 10.5121/ijcsit.2010.2305

    2010-01-01

    The area of mobile ad hoc networking has received considerable attention of the research community in recent years. These networks have gained immense popularity primarily due to their infrastructure-less mode of operation which makes them a suitable candidate for deployment in emergency scenarios like relief operation, battlefield etc., where either the pre-existing infrastructure is totally damaged or it is not possible to establish a new infrastructure quickly. However, MANETs are constrained due to the limited transmission range of the mobile nodes which reduces the total coverage area. Sometimes the infrastructure-less ad hoc network may be combined with a fixed network to form a hybrid network which can cover a wider area with the advantage of having less fixed infrastructure. In such a combined network, for transferring data, we need base stations which act as gateways between the wired and wireless domains. Due to the hybrid nature of these networks, routing is considered a challenging task. Several r...

  3. Security Analysis of Selected AMI Failure Scenarios Using Agent Based Game Theoretic Simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Abercrombie, Robert K [ORNL; Schlicher, Bob G [ORNL; Sheldon, Frederick T [ORNL

    2014-01-01

    Information security analysis can be performed using game theory implemented in dynamic Agent Based Game Theoretic (ABGT) simulations. Such simulations can be verified with the results from game theory analysis and further used to explore larger scale, real world scenarios involving multiple attackers, defenders, and information assets. We concentrated our analysis on the Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI) functional domain which the National Electric Sector Cyber security Organization Resource (NESCOR) working group has currently documented 29 failure scenarios. The strategy for the game was developed by analyzing five electric sector representative failure scenarios contained in the AMI functional domain. From these five selected scenarios, we characterize them into three specific threat categories affecting confidentiality, integrity and availability (CIA). The analysis using our ABGT simulation demonstrates how to model the AMI functional domain using a set of rationalized game theoretic rules decomposed from the failure scenarios in terms of how those scenarios might impact the AMI network with respect to CIA.

  4. Tx scenario analysis of FBMC based LDM system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Soonki Jo

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Filter bank multiple carrier (FBMC technology is one of the alternative solutions for multicarrier modulation. FBMC does not need cyclic prefix (CP and guard band utilized for orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM and CP and guard band cause loss of spectral efficiency. FBMC features offset QAM (OQAM and band-limited filtering on each subcarrier, which eliminate the need of CP and guard band. FBMC filtering could maintain the orthogonality in a real signal domain by using well localized filter. Meanwhile layer division multiplexing (LDM is also introduced to increase the spectral efficiency. In LDM, low density parity check (LDPC coded multi signals are transmitted simultaneously with different power levels in same frequency band and these signals form signal layers. Combination of FBMC and LDM techniques can maximize the spectral efficiency. In this paper, LDM system which adopts FBMC is proposed. The LDM system has both OFDM and FBMC modulated layers. To apply FBMC to LDM system, log-likelihood ratio (LLR calculation scheme for FBMC is needed for LDPC decoding. Three scenarios for LDM system are considered and BER performance of each scenario is analyzed to find proper scenario.

  5. 3D Simulation of Storm Surge Disaster Based on Scenario Analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王晓玲; 孙小沛; 张胜利; 孙蕊蕊; 李瑞金; 朱泽彪

    2016-01-01

    The occurrence of storm surge disaster is often accompanied with floodplain, overflow, dike breach and other complex phenomena, while current studies on storm surge flooding are more concentrated on the 1D/2D numerical simulation of single disaster scenario (floodplain, overflow or dike breach), ignoring the composite ef-fects of various phenomena. Therefore, considering the uncertainty in the disaster process of storm surge, scenario analysis was firstly proposed to identify the composite disaster scenario including multiple phenomena by analyzing key driving forces, building scenario matrix and deducing situation logic. Secondly, by combining the advantages of k-ωand k-εmodels in the wall treatment, a shear stress transmission k-ωmodel coupled with VOF was proposed to simulate the 3D flood routing for storm surge disaster. Thirdly, risk degree was introduced to make the risk analysis of storm surge disaster. Finally, based on the scenario analysis, four scenarios with different storm surge intensity (100-year and 200-year frequency) were identified in Tianjin Binhai New Area. Then, 3D numerical simulation and risk map were made for the case.

  6. Measurement based scenario analysis of short-range distribution system planning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chen, Peiyuan; Bak-Jensen, Birgitte; Chen, Zhe

    2009-01-01

    This paper focuses on short-range distribution system planning using a probabilistic approach. Empirical probabilistic distributions of load demand and distributed generations are derived from the historical measurement data and incorporated into the system planning. Simulations with various...... feasible scenarios are performed based on a local distribution system at Støvring in Denmark. Simulation results provide more accurate and insightful information for the decision-maker when using the probabilistic analysis than using the worst-case analysis, so that a better planning can be achieved....

  7. [Scenario analysis on sustainable development of Sino-Singapore Tianjin Eco-city based on emergy and system dynamics].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Chun-fa; Cao, Ying-ying; Yang, Jian-cho; Yang, Qi-qi

    2015-08-01

    Dynamic evaluation of sustainable development is one of the key fundamental parts of the success of Sino-Singapore Tianjin Eco-city, which is the first eco-city in China constructed by international cooperation. Based on the analysis of nature and economy, function and structure, planning control indices and so on, we constructed a sustainable development evaluation index system and a system dynamics model of Sino-Singapore Tianjin Eco-city to explore dynamic trends of its population, material and currency by comprehensive utilization of emergy analysis and system dynamics method. Five scenarios were set up and simulated, including inertial scenario, scientific and technological scenario, economic scenario, environmental scenario and harmonious development scenario. Then, the sustainability of the 5 scenarios was evaluated and compared. The results showed that in the economy and environment sustainable development scenario, there was a steady growth trend of GDP, accumulation of both emergy and currency, and relatively lower values in emergy waste ratio, emergy ratio of waste, and emergy loading ratio. Although both sustainable evaluation indices, such as ESI and UEI, were relatively low, the economy and environment sustainable development scenario was still the best development scenario which was more active than others.

  8. Strategic bidding in electricity markets: An agent-based simulator with game theory for scenario analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pinto, Tiago; Praca, Isabel; Morais, Hugo

    2013-01-01

    the behavior that better fits their objectives. This model includes forecasts of competitor players’ actions, to build models of their behavior, in order to define the most probable expected scenarios. Once the scenarios are defined, game theory is applied to support the choice of the ac-tion to be performed......Electricity markets are complex environments, involving a large number of different entities, with specific charac-teristics and objectives, making their decisions and interacting in a dynamic scene. Game-theory has been widely used to sup-port decisions in competitive environments; therefore its...... application in electricity markets can prove to be a high potential tool. This paper proposes a new scenario analysis algorithm, which includes the application of game-theory, to evaluate and preview different scenarios and provide players with the ability to strategically react in order to exhibit...

  9. Dynamic Analysis of Nuclear Waste Generation Based on Nuclear Fuel Cycle Transition Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yoon, S. R. [University of Science and Technology, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Ko, W. I. [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-10-15

    According to the recommendations submitted by the Public Engagement Commission on Spent Nuclear Fuel Management (PECOS), the government was advised to pick the site for an underground laboratory and interim storage facilities before the end of 2020 followed by the related research for permanent and underground disposal of spent fuel after 10 years. In the middle of the main issues, the factors of environmentally friendly and safe way to handle nuclear waste are inextricable from nuclear power generating nation to ensure the sustainability of nuclear power. For this purposes, the closed nuclear fuel cycle has been developed regarding deep geological disposal, pyroprocessing, and burner type sodium-cooled fast reactors (SFRs) in Korea. Among two methods of an equilibrium model and a dynamic model generally used for screening nuclear fuel cycle system, the dynamic model is more appropriate to envisage country-specific environment with the transition phase in the long term and significant to estimate meaningful impacts based on the timedependent behavior of harmful wastes. This study aims at analyzing the spent nuclear fuel generation based on the long-term nuclear fuel cycle transition scenarios considered at up-to-date country specific conditions and comparing long term advantages of the developed nuclear fuel cycle option between once-through cycle and Pyro-SFR cycle. In this study, a dynamic analysis was carried out to estimate the long-term projection of nuclear electricity generation, installed capacity, spent nuclear fuel arising in different fuel cycle scenarios based on the up-to-date national energy plans.

  10. Automated Analysis of Infinite Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Buchholtz, Mikael

    2005-01-01

    The security of a network protocol crucially relies on the scenario in which the protocol is deployed. This paper describes syntactic constructs for modelling network scenarios and presents an automated analysis tool, which can guarantee that security properties hold in all of the (infinitely many...

  11. Supply Chain Vulnerability Analysis Using Scenario-Based Input-Output Modeling: Application to Port Operations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thekdi, Shital A; Santos, Joost R

    2016-05-01

    Disruptive events such as natural disasters, loss or reduction of resources, work stoppages, and emergent conditions have potential to propagate economic losses across trade networks. In particular, disruptions to the operation of container port activity can be detrimental for international trade and commerce. Risk assessment should anticipate the impact of port operation disruptions with consideration of how priorities change due to uncertain scenarios and guide investments that are effective and feasible for implementation. Priorities for protective measures and continuity of operations planning must consider the economic impact of such disruptions across a variety of scenarios. This article introduces new performance metrics to characterize resiliency in interdependency modeling and also integrates scenario-based methods to measure economic sensitivity to sudden-onset disruptions. The methods will be demonstrated on a U.S. port responsible for handling $36.1 billion of cargo annually. The methods will be useful to port management, private industry supply chain planning, and transportation infrastructure management.

  12. Application of risk-based multiple criteria decision analysis for selection of the best agricultural scenario for effective watershed management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Javidi Sabbaghian, Reza; Zarghami, Mahdi; Nejadhashemi, A Pouyan; Sharifi, Mohammad Bagher; Herman, Matthew R; Daneshvar, Fariborz

    2016-03-01

    Effective watershed management requires the evaluation of agricultural best management practice (BMP) scenarios which carefully consider the relevant environmental, economic, and social criteria involved. In the Multiple Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) process, scenarios are first evaluated and then ranked to determine the most desirable outcome for the particular watershed. The main challenge of this process is the accurate identification of the best solution for the watershed in question, despite the various risk attitudes presented by the associated decision-makers (DMs). This paper introduces a novel approach for implementation of the MCDM process based on a comparative neutral risk/risk-based decision analysis, which results in the selection of the most desirable scenario for use in the entire watershed. At the sub-basin level, each scenario includes multiple BMPs with scores that have been calculated using the criteria derived from two cases of neutral risk and risk-based decision-making. The simple additive weighting (SAW) operator is applied for use in neutral risk decision-making, while the ordered weighted averaging (OWA) and induced OWA (IOWA) operators are effective for risk-based decision-making. At the watershed level, the BMP scores of the sub-basins are aggregated to calculate each scenarios' combined goodness measurements; the most desirable scenario for the entire watershed is then selected based on the combined goodness measurements. Our final results illustrate the type of operator and risk attitudes needed to satisfy the relevant criteria within the number of sub-basins, and how they ultimately affect the final ranking of the given scenarios. The methodology proposed here has been successfully applied to the Honeyoey Creek-Pine Creek watershed in Michigan, USA to evaluate various BMP scenarios and determine the best solution for both the stakeholders and the overall stream health.

  13. Scenario-based risk analysis of winter snowstorms in the German lowlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    von Wulffen, Anja

    2014-05-01

    conditions. Based on these findings, an exemplary synoptic evolution of a snowstorm leading to representative infrastructure failure cascades is constructed. In a next step, an extrapolation of this obtained scenario to future climate and societal conditions as well as plausible more extreme but not yet observed meteorological conditions is planned in order to obtain a thorough analysis of possible threats to the German food distribution system and a strong foundation for future disaster mitigation planning efforts.

  14. Scenario analysis of energy-based low-carbon development in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Yun; Hao, Fanghua; Meng, Wei; Fu, Jiafeng

    2014-08-01

    China's increasing energy consumption and coal-dominant energy structure have contributed not only to severe environmental pollution, but also to global climate change. This article begins with a brief review of China's primary energy use and associated environmental problems and health risks. To analyze the potential of China's transition to low-carbon development, three scenarios are constructed to simulate energy demand and CO₂ emission trends in China up to 2050 by using the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) model. Simulation results show that with the assumption of an average annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate of 6.45%, total primary energy demand is expected to increase by 63.4%, 48.8% and 12.2% under the Business as Usual (BaU), Carbon Reduction (CR) and Integrated Low Carbon Economy (ILCE) scenarios in 2050 from the 2009 levels. Total energy-related CO₂ emissions will increase from 6.7 billiontons in 2009 to 9.5, 11, 11.6 and 11.2 billiontons; 8.2, 9.2, 9.6 and 9 billiontons; 7.1, 7.4, 7.2 and 6.4 billiontons in 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050 under the BaU, CR and ILCE scenarios, respectively. Total CO₂ emission will drop by 19.6% and 42.9% under the CR and ILCE scenarios in 2050, compared with the BaU scenario. To realize a substantial cut in energy consumption and carbon emissions, China needs to make a long-term low-carbon development strategy targeting further improvement of energy efficiency, optimization of energy structure, deployment of clean coal technology and use of market-based economic instruments like energy/carbon taxation.

  15. Sustainable Systems Analysis of Production and Transportation Scenarios for Conventional and Bio-based Energy Commodities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doran, E. M.; Golden, J. S.; Nowacek, D. P.

    2013-12-01

    International commerce places unique pressures on the sustainability of water resources and marine environments. System impacts include noise, emissions, and chemical and biological pollutants like introduction of invasive species into key ecosystems. At the same time, maritime trade also enables the sustainability ambition of intragenerational equity in the economy through the global circulation of commodities and manufactured goods, including agricultural, energy and mining resources (UN Trade and Development Board 2013). This paper presents a framework to guide the analysis of the multiple dimensions of the sustainable commerce-ocean nexus. As a demonstration case, we explore the social, economic and environmental aspects of the nexus framework using scenarios for the production and transportation of conventional and bio-based energy commodities. Using coupled LCA and GIS methodologies, we are able to orient the findings spatially for additional insight. Previous work on the sustainable use of marine resources has focused on distinct aspects of the maritime environment. The framework presented here, integrates the anthropogenic use, governance and impacts on the marine and coastal environments with the natural components of the system. A similar framework has been highly effective in progressing the study of land-change science (Turner et al 2007), however modification is required for the unique context of the marine environment. This framework will enable better research integration and planning for sustainability objectives including mitigation and adaptation to climate change, sea level rise, reduced dependence on fossil fuels, protection of critical marine habitat and species, and better management of the ocean as an emerging resource base for the production and transport of commodities and energy across the globe. The framework can also be adapted for vulnerability analysis, resilience studies and to evaluate the trends in production, consumption and

  16. Microalgae-based biodiesel: economic analysis of downstream process realistic scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ríos, Sergio D; Torres, Carmen M; Torras, Carles; Salvadó, Joan; Mateo-Sanz, Josep M; Jiménez, Laureano

    2013-05-01

    Microalgae oil has been identified as a reliable resource for biodiesel production due to its high lipid productivity and potential cultivation in non-fertile locations. However, high scale production of microalgae based biodiesel depends on the optimization of the entire process to be economically feasible. The selected strain, medium, harvesting methods, etc., sorely affects the ash content in the dry biomass which have a direct effect in the lipid content. Moreover, the suitable lipids for biodiesel production, some of the neutral/saponifiable, are only a fraction of the total ones (around 30% dry base biomass in the best case). The present work uses computational tools for the modeling of different scenarios of the harvesting, oil extraction and transesterification. This rigorous modeling approach detects process bottlenecks that could have led to an overestimation of the potentiality of the microalgae lipids as a resource for the biodiesel production.

  17. Using Cognitive Task Analysis to Develop Scenario-Based Training for House-Clearing Teams

    Science.gov (United States)

    2006-06-22

    scenario. ß For an advanced scenario, incorporate several Why Difficults. For a basic-level scenario, use fewer. ß There is a lot of loud music playing. ß...l’urbanisation a eu pour effet d’augmenter le nombre d’opérations militaires en terrain urbain (OMTU), dans lesquelles les unités se trouvent à œuvrer dans des

  18. Multi-scenario-based hazard analysis of high temperature extremes experienced in China during 1951-2010

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YIN Zhan'e; YIN Jie; ZHANG Xiaowei

    2013-01-01

    China is physically and socio-economically susceptible to global warming-derived high temperature extremes because of its vast area and high urban population density.This article presents a scenario-based analysis method for high temperature extremes aimed at illustrating the latter's hazardous potential and exposure across China.Based on probability analysis,high temperature extreme scenarios with return periods of 5,10,20,and 50 years were designed,with a high temperature hazard index calculated by integrating two differentially-weighted extreme temperature indices (maximum temperature and high temperature days).To perform the exposure analysis,a land use map was employed to determine the spatial distribution of susceptible human activities under the different scenarios.The results indicate that there are two heat-prone regions and a sub-hotspot occupying a relatively small land area.However,the societal and economic consequences of such an environmental impact upon the North China Plain and middle/lower Yangtze River Basin would be substantial due to the concentration of human activities in these areas.

  19. [New paradigm for soil and water conservation: a method based on watershed process modeling and scenario analysis].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, A-Xing; Chen, La-Jiao; Qin, Cheng-Zhi; Wang, Ping; Liu, Jun-Zhi; Li, Run-Kui; Cai, Qiang-Guo

    2012-07-01

    With the increase of severe soil erosion problem, soil and water conservation has become an urgent concern for sustainable development. Small watershed experimental observation is the traditional paradigm for soil and water control. However, the establishment of experimental watershed usually takes long time, and has the limitations of poor repeatability and high cost. Moreover, the popularization of the results from the experimental watershed is limited for other areas due to the differences in watershed conditions. Therefore, it is not sufficient to completely rely on this old paradigm for soil and water loss control. Recently, scenario analysis based on watershed modeling has been introduced into watershed management, which can provide information about the effectiveness of different management practices based on the quantitative simulation of watershed processes. Because of its merits such as low cost, short period, and high repeatability, scenario analysis shows great potential in aiding the development of watershed management strategy. This paper elaborated a new paradigm using watershed modeling and scenario analysis for soil and water conservation, illustrated this new paradigm through two cases for practical watershed management, and explored the future development of this new soil and water conservation paradigm.

  20. A scenario-based modeling approach for emergency evacuation management and risk analysis under multiple uncertainties.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lv, Y; Huang, G H; Guo, L; Li, Y P; Dai, C; Wang, X W; Sun, W

    2013-02-15

    Nuclear emergency evacuation is important to prevent radioactive harms by hazardous materials and to limit the accidents' consequences; however, uncertainties are involved in the components and processes of such a management system. In the study, an interval-parameter joint-probabilistic integer programming (IJIP) method is developed for emergency evacuation management under uncertainties. Optimization techniques of interval-parameter programming (IPP) and joint-probabilistic constrained (JPC) programming are incorporated into an integer linear programming framework, so that the approach can deal with uncertainties expressed as joint probability and interval values. The IJIP method can schedule the optimal routes to guarantee the maximum population evacuated away from the effected zone during a finite time. Furthermore, it can also facilitate post optimization analysis to enhance robustness in controlling system violation risk imposed on the joint-probabilistic constraints. The developed method has been applied to a case study of nuclear emergency management; meanwhile, a number of scenarios under different system conditions have been analyzed. It is indicated that the solutions are useful for evacuation management practices. The result of the IJIP method can not only help to raise the capability of disaster responses in a systematic manner, but also provide an insight into complex relationships among evacuation planning, resources utilizations, policy requirements and system risks.

  1. Scenario-Based Analysis on Water Resources Implication of Coal Power in Western China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiahai Yuan

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Currently, 58% of coal-fired power generation capacity is located in eastern China, where the demand for electricity is strong. Serious air pollution in China, in eastern regions in particular, has compelled the Chinese government to impose a ban on the new construction of pulverized coal power plants in eastern regions. Meanwhile, rapid economic growth is thirsty for electric power supply. As a response, China planned to build large-scale coal power bases in six western provinces, including Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, Shaanxi, Xinjiang, Ningxia and Gansu. In this paper, the water resource implication of the coal power base planning is addressed. We find that, in a business-as-usual (BAU scenario, water consumption for coal power generation in these six provinces will increase from 1130 million m3 in 2012 to 2085 million m3 in 2020, experiencing nearly a double growth. Such a surge will exert great pressure on water supply and lead to serious water crisis in these already water-starved regions. A strong implication is that the Chinese Government must add water resource constraint as a critical point in its overall sustainable development plan, in addition to energy supply and environment protection. An integrated energy-water resource plan with regionalized environmental carrying capacity as constraints should be developed to settle this puzzle. Several measures are proposed to cope with it, including downsizing coal power in western regions, raising the technical threshold of new coal power plants and implementing retrofitting to the inefficient cooling system, and reengineering the generation process to waterless or recycled means.

  2. Policy Choice for Urban Low-carbon transportation in Beijing: Scenario Analysis Based on LEAP model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yu

    2016-04-01

    Beijing is a fast developing megacity with serious traffic problems, such as high energy consumption, high CO2 emission and traffic congestion. The coming 13th Five-Year Plan for Beijing economic and social development will focus on the low-carbon transportation policy to achieve the urban traffic sustainable development. In order to improve the feasibility of urban low-carbon transportation policies, this paper analyzes the future trends of CO2 emissions from transportation of Beijing. Firstly, five policies scenarios are developed according to the coming Beijing 13th Five-Year Plan, including the "Business As Usual (BAU)", the "Public Transportation Priority(PTP)", the "New Energy Vehicle(NEV)", the "Active Transportation(AT)", the "Private Car Regulation(PCR)" and the "Hybrid Policy(HP)". Then the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System(LEAP model) framework is adopted to estimate CO2 emission under given policies scenarios up to year 2020 and analyze the implications. The results demonstrate that the low-carbon transportation policies can reduce CO2 emission effectively. Specifically, the "Hybrid Policy(HP)" has the best performance. In terms of single policy effect, the "Private Car Regulation(PCR)" comes first followed by the "Public Transportation Priority(PTP)".

  3. COMPETITIVE INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS - SCENARIOS METHOD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivan Valeriu

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Keeping a company in the top performing players in the relevant market depends not only on its ability to develop continually, sustainably and balanced, to the standards set by the customer and competition, but also on the ability to protect its strategic information and to know in advance the strategic information of the competition. In addition, given that economic markets, regardless of their profile, enable interconnection not only among domestic companies, but also between domestic companies and foreign companies, the issue of economic competition moves from the national economies to the field of interest of regional and international economic organizations. The stakes for each economic player is to keep ahead of the competition and to be always prepared to face market challenges. Therefore, it needs to know as early as possible, how to react to others’ strategy in terms of research, production and sales. If a competitor is planning to produce more and cheaper, then it must be prepared to counteract quickly this movement. Competitive intelligence helps to evaluate the capabilities of competitors in the market, legally and ethically, and to develop response strategies. One of the main goals of the competitive intelligence is to acknowledge the role of early warning and prevention of surprises that could have a major impact on the market share, reputation, turnover and profitability in the medium and long term of a company. This paper presents some aspects of competitive intelligence, mainly in terms of information analysis and intelligence generation. Presentation is theoretical and addresses a structured method of information analysis - scenarios method – in a version that combines several types of analysis in order to reveal some interconnecting aspects of the factors governing the activity of a company.

  4. Scenario Based Network Infrastructure Planning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knudsen, Thomas Phillip; Pedersen, Jens Myrup; Madsen, Ole Brun

    2005-01-01

    The paper presents a method for IT infrastructure planning that take into account very long term developments in usages. The method creates a scenario for a final, time independent stage in the planning process. The method abstracts relevant modelling factors from available information...

  5. Web Based Tool for Mission Operations Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyles, Carole A.; Bindschadler, Duane L.

    2008-01-01

    A conventional practice for spaceflight projects is to document scenarios in a monolithic Operations Concept document. Such documents can be hundreds of pages long and may require laborious updates. Software development practice utilizes scenarios in the form of smaller, individual use cases, which are often structured and managed using UML. We have developed a process and a web-based scenario tool that utilizes a similar philosophy of smaller, more compact scenarios (but avoids the formality of UML). The need for a scenario process and tool became apparent during the authors' work on a large astrophysics mission. It was noted that every phase of the Mission (e.g., formulation, design, verification and validation, and operations) looked back to scenarios to assess completeness of requirements and design. It was also noted that terminology needed to be clarified and structured to assure communication across all levels of the project. Attempts to manage, communicate, and evolve scenarios at all levels of a project using conventional tools (e.g., Excel) and methods (Scenario Working Group meetings) were not effective given limitations on budget and staffing. The objective of this paper is to document the scenario process and tool created to offer projects a low-cost capability to create, communicate, manage, and evolve scenarios throughout project development. The process and tool have the further benefit of allowing the association of requirements with particular scenarios, establishing and viewing relationships between higher- and lower-level scenarios, and the ability to place all scenarios in a shared context. The resulting structured set of scenarios is widely visible (using a web browser), easily updated, and can be searched according to various criteria including the level (e.g., Project, System, and Team) and Mission Phase. Scenarios are maintained in a web-accessible environment that provides a structured set of scenario fields and allows for maximum

  6. Implementation and Analysis of a Wireless Sensor Network-Based Pet Location Monitoring System for Domestic Scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aguirre, Erik; Lopez-Iturri, Peio; Azpilicueta, Leyre; Astrain, José Javier; Villadangos, Jesús; Santesteban, Daniel; Falcone, Francisco

    2016-08-30

    The flexibility of new age wireless networks and the variety of sensors to measure a high number of variables, lead to new scenarios where anything can be monitored by small electronic devices, thereby implementing Wireless Sensor Networks (WSN). Thanks to ZigBee, RFID or WiFi networks the precise location of humans or animals as well as some biological parameters can be known in real-time. However, since wireless sensors must be attached to biological tissues and they are highly dispersive, propagation of electromagnetic waves must be studied to deploy an efficient and well-working network. The main goal of this work is to study the influence of wireless channel limitations in the operation of a specific pet monitoring system, validated at physical channel as well as at functional level. In this sense, radio wave propagation produced by ZigBee devices operating at the ISM 2.4 GHz band is studied through an in-house developed 3D Ray Launching simulation tool, in order to analyze coverage/capacity relations for the optimal system selection as well as deployment strategy in terms of number of transceivers and location. Furthermore, a simplified dog model is developed for simulation code, considering not only its morphology but also its dielectric properties. Relevant wireless channel information such as power distribution, power delay profile and delay spread graphs are obtained providing an extensive wireless channel analysis. A functional dog monitoring system is presented, operating over the implemented ZigBee network and providing real time information to Android based devices. The proposed system can be scaled in order to consider different types of domestic pets as well as new user based functionalities.

  7. Implementation and Analysis of a Wireless Sensor Network-Based Pet Location Monitoring System for Domestic Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erik Aguirre

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The flexibility of new age wireless networks and the variety of sensors to measure a high number of variables, lead to new scenarios where anything can be monitored by small electronic devices, thereby implementing Wireless Sensor Networks (WSN. Thanks to ZigBee, RFID or WiFi networks the precise location of humans or animals as well as some biological parameters can be known in real-time. However, since wireless sensors must be attached to biological tissues and they are highly dispersive, propagation of electromagnetic waves must be studied to deploy an efficient and well-working network. The main goal of this work is to study the influence of wireless channel limitations in the operation of a specific pet monitoring system, validated at physical channel as well as at functional level. In this sense, radio wave propagation produced by ZigBee devices operating at the ISM 2.4 GHz band is studied through an in-house developed 3D Ray Launching simulation tool, in order to analyze coverage/capacity relations for the optimal system selection as well as deployment strategy in terms of number of transceivers and location. Furthermore, a simplified dog model is developed for simulation code, considering not only its morphology but also its dielectric properties. Relevant wireless channel information such as power distribution, power delay profile and delay spread graphs are obtained providing an extensive wireless channel analysis. A functional dog monitoring system is presented, operating over the implemented ZigBee network and providing real time information to Android based devices. The proposed system can be scaled in order to consider different types of domestic pets as well as new user based functionalities.

  8. Implementation and Analysis of a Wireless Sensor Network-Based Pet Location Monitoring System for Domestic Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aguirre, Erik; Lopez-Iturri, Peio; Azpilicueta, Leyre; Astrain, José Javier; Villadangos, Jesús; Santesteban, Daniel; Falcone, Francisco

    2016-01-01

    The flexibility of new age wireless networks and the variety of sensors to measure a high number of variables, lead to new scenarios where anything can be monitored by small electronic devices, thereby implementing Wireless Sensor Networks (WSN). Thanks to ZigBee, RFID or WiFi networks the precise location of humans or animals as well as some biological parameters can be known in real-time. However, since wireless sensors must be attached to biological tissues and they are highly dispersive, propagation of electromagnetic waves must be studied to deploy an efficient and well-working network. The main goal of this work is to study the influence of wireless channel limitations in the operation of a specific pet monitoring system, validated at physical channel as well as at functional level. In this sense, radio wave propagation produced by ZigBee devices operating at the ISM 2.4 GHz band is studied through an in-house developed 3D Ray Launching simulation tool, in order to analyze coverage/capacity relations for the optimal system selection as well as deployment strategy in terms of number of transceivers and location. Furthermore, a simplified dog model is developed for simulation code, considering not only its morphology but also its dielectric properties. Relevant wireless channel information such as power distribution, power delay profile and delay spread graphs are obtained providing an extensive wireless channel analysis. A functional dog monitoring system is presented, operating over the implemented ZigBee network and providing real time information to Android based devices. The proposed system can be scaled in order to consider different types of domestic pets as well as new user based functionalities. PMID:27589751

  9. Scenarios Analysis of the Energies’ Consumption and Carbon Emissions in China Based on a Dynamic CGE Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuanying Chi

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the development trends and variation characteristics of China’s economy, energy consumption and carbon emissions from 2007 to 2030, and the impacts on China’s economic growth, energy consumption, and carbon emissions under the carbon tax policy scenarios, based on the dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE model. The results show that during the simulation period, China’s economy will keep a relatively high growth rate, but the growth rate will slow down under the benchmark scenario. The energy consumption intensity and the carbon emissions intensity per unit of Gross Domestic Product (GDP will continually decrease. The energy consumption structure and industrial structure will gradually optimize. With the economic growth, the total energy consumption will constantly increase, and the carbon dioxide emissions are still large, and the situation of energy-saving and emission-reduction is still serious. The carbon tax is very important for energy-saving and emission-reduction and energy consumption structure optimization, and the effect of the carbon tax on GDP is small. If the carbon tax could be levied and the enterprise income tax could be reduced at the same time, the dual goals of reducing energy consumption and carbon emissions and increasing the GDP growth can be achieved. Improving the technical progress level of clean power while implementing a carbon tax policy is very meaningful to optimize energy consumption structure and reduce the carbon emissions, but it has some offsetting effect to reduce energy consumption.

  10. Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joao M. Goncalves

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Personal information is increasingly gathered and used for providing services tailored to user preferences, but the datasets used to provide such functionality can represent serious privacy threats if not appropriately protected. Work in privacy-preserving data publishing targeted privacy guarantees that protect against record re-identification, by making records indistinguishable, or sensitive attribute value disclosure, by introducing diversity or noise in the sensitive values. However, most approaches fail in the high-dimensional case, and the ones that don't introduce a utility cost incompatible with tailored recommendation scenarios. This paper aims at a sensible trade-off between privacy and the benefits of tailored recommendations, in the context of privacy-preserving data publishing. We empirically demonstrate that significant privacy improvements can be achieved at a utility cost compatible with tailored recommendation scenarios, using a simple partition-based sanitization method.

  11. Computational Scenario-based Capability Planning

    CERN Document Server

    Abbass, Hussein; Dam, Helen; Baker, Stephen; Whitacre, James M; Sarker, Ruhul; 10.1145/1389095.1389378

    2009-01-01

    Scenarios are pen-pictures of plausible futures, used for strategic planning. The aim of this investigation is to expand the horizon of scenario-based planning through computational models that are able to aid the analyst in the planning process. The investigation builds upon the advances of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) to create a novel, flexible and customizable computational capability-based planning methodology that is practical and theoretically sound. We will show how evolutionary computation, in particular evolutionary multi-objective optimization, can play a central role - both as an optimizer and as a source for innovation.

  12. xLPR Scenario Analysis Report.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eckert-Gallup, Aubrey Celia [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Lewis, John R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Brooks, Dusty Marie [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Martin, Nevin [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hund, Lauren [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Clark, Andrew Jordan [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Mariner, Paul [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-03-01

    This report describes the methods, results, and conclusions of the analysis of 11 scenarios defined to exercise various options available in the xLPR (Extremely Low Probability of Rupture) Version 2 .0 code. The scope of the scenario analysis is three - fold: (i) exercise the various options and components comprising xLPR v2.0 and defining each scenario; (ii) develop and exercise methods for analyzing and interpreting xLPR v2.0 outputs ; and (iii) exercise the various sampling options available in xLPR v2.0. The simulation workflow template developed during the course of this effort helps to form a basis for the application of the xLPR code to problems with similar inputs and probabilistic requirements and address in a systematic manner the three points covered by the scope.

  13. Experiments, Passive Observation and Scenario Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hoover, Kevin D.; Juselius, Katarina

    that he develops in his famous monograph, The Probability Approach in Econometrics (1944). We show how, once the details of the analogy are systematically understood, the experimental analogy can be used to shed light on theory-consistent cointegrated vector autoregression (CVAR) scenario analysis. CVAR...

  14. Sensitivity analysis on fuel scenario associated magnitudes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garcia Martinez, M.; Alvarez-Velarde, F.

    2014-07-01

    Nuclear fuel cycle scenario analyses are needed as a support for policy makers in terms of sustainability, fuel diversity, security of supply, and social and environmental effects. These analyses are usually aimed to the study of the impact of certain hypotheses on some fuel cycle indicators, without considering the uncertainties on those hypotheses. The expert group of the NEA/OECD on Advanced Fuel Cycle Scenarios, where this work is framed, is devoted to fill this gap, laying the foundations for deep analysis of the sensibilities on fuel cycle indicators. (Author)

  15. Scenario-based Training: Director's Cut

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Peeters, M.M.M.; Van den Bosch, K.; Meyer, J-J.Ch.; Neerincx, M.A.

    2011-01-01

    Research regarding autonomous learning shows that freeplay does not result in optimal learning. Combining scenario-based training with intelligent agent technology off ers the possibility to create autonomous training enriched with automated adaptive support delivered by a director agent. We conduct

  16. Scenario-based table top simulations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Broberg, Ole; Edwards, Kasper; Nielsen, J.

    2012-01-01

    This study developed and tested a scenario-based table top simulation method in a user-driven innovation setting. A team of researchers worked together with a user group of five medical staff members from the existing clinic. Table top simulations of a new clinic were carried out in a simple model...... including patient scenarios, LEGO figures, shoeboxes, and cardboard. The results indicated that table top simulations is a simple, cheap and powerful tool to generate and test innovative conceptual solutions in the early stages of a design process....

  17. [Environmental management: critical analysis, scenarios and challenges].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porto, Marcelo Firpo de Souza; Schütz, Gabriel Eduardo

    2012-06-01

    This article discusses the limits, alternatives and challenges of environmental management in contemporary globalized capitalist societies. It is based on a critical analysis supported by authors from social sciences, political ecology and public health. To this end, we systematize the meaning of hegemonic environmental management in terms of eco-efficiency and its limits to tackle environmental risks and construct democratic processes and societies. We developed four ideal scenarios involving possible combinations of environmental management and democracy. This model served as a base, together with academic studies and the theoretical and militant experience of the authors, for a reflection on the current characteristics and future trends of environmental management and democracy, with emphasis on the reality of Latin America, specifically Brazil. Lastly, we discuss possibilities for social transformation taking into consideration the contradictions and emancipatory alternatives resulting from confrontations between hegemonic tendencies of the market and counter-hegemonic utopias and social movements. The latter assume principles of environmental justice, economic solidarity, agro-ecology and sustainability as well as the construction of new epistemologies.

  18. Sensitivity analysis of parameters affecting carbon footprint of fossil fuel power plants based on life cycle assessment scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Dalir

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available In this study a pseudo comprehensive carbon footprint model for fossil fuel power plants is presented. Parameters which their effects are considered in this study include: plant type, fuel type, fuel transmission type, internal consumption of the plant, degradation, site ambient condition, transmission and distribution losses. Investigating internal consumption, degradation and site ambient condition effect on carbon footprint assessment of fossil fuel power plant is the specific feature of the proposed model. To evaluate the model, a sensitivity analysis is performed under different scenarios covering all possible choices for investigated parameters. The results show that carbon footprint of fossil fuel electrical energy that is produced, transmitted and distributed, varies from 321 g CO2 eq/kWh to 980 g CO2 equivalent /kWh. Carbon footprint of combined cycle with natural gas as main fuel is the minimum carbon footprint. Other factors can also cause indicative variation. Fuel type causes a variation of 28%. Ambient condition may change the result up to 13%. Transmission makes the carbon footprint larger by 4%. Internal consumption and degradation influence the result by 2 and 2.5%, respectively. Therefore, to minimize the carbon footprint of fossil fuel electricity, it is recommended to construct natural gas ignited combined cycles in low lands where the temperature is low and relative humidity is high. And the internal consumption is as least as possible and the maintenance and overhaul is as regular as possible.

  19. Toward Interactive Scenario Analysis and Exploration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gayle, Thomas R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). Interactive Systems, Simulations, and Analysis; Summers, Kenneth Lee [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). Interactive Systems, Simulations, and Analysis; Jungels, John [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). Interactive Systems, Simulations, and Analysis; Oppel III, Fred J. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). Interactive Systems, Simulations, and Analysis

    2015-01-01

    As Modeling and Simulation (M&S) tools have matured, their applicability and importance have increased across many national security challenges. In particular, they provide a way to test how something may behave without the need to do real world testing. However, current and future changes across several factors including capabilities, policy, and funding are driving a need for rapid response or evaluation in ways that many M&S tools cannot address. Issues around large data, computational requirements, delivery mechanisms, and analyst involvement already exist and pose significant challenges. Furthermore, rising expectations, rising input complexity, and increasing depth of analysis will only increase the difficulty of these challenges. In this study we examine whether innovations in M&S software coupled with advances in ''cloud'' computing and ''big-data'' methodologies can overcome many of these challenges. In particular, we propose a simple, horizontally-scalable distributed computing environment that could provide the foundation (i.e. ''cloud'') for next-generation M&S-based applications based on the notion of ''parallel multi-simulation''. In our context, the goal of parallel multi- simulation is to consider as many simultaneous paths of execution as possible. Therefore, with sufficient resources, the complexity is dominated by the cost of single scenario runs as opposed to the number of runs required. We show the feasibility of this architecture through a stable prototype implementation coupled with the Umbra Simulation Framework [6]. Finally, we highlight the utility through multiple novel analysis tools and by showing the performance improvement compared to existing tools.

  20. Future trends in environmental impact of eucalyptus-based Kraft pulp industry in Thailand: a scenario analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jawjit, W.; Kroeze, C.; Soontaranun, W.; Hordijk, L.

    2008-01-01

    This study explores possible future trends in the environmental impact of the Kraft pulp industry in Thailand between 2000 and 2020. Scenarios were developed to analyze the effect of different options to reduce the future environmental impact, and the costs associated with the implementation of thes

  1. Renewable energy perspectives for the North African electricity systems: a comparative analysis of model-based scenario studies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brand, B.; Blok, Kornelis

    2015-01-01

    Prospects for the integration of power markets and the expansion of renewable energy have recently triggered a number of publications dealing with transformation scenarios of the North African electricity systems. This paper compares five studies using economic electricity supply- and demand models

  2. Performance analysis of communication links based on VCSEL and silicon photonics technology for high-capacity data-intensive scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boletti, A; Boffi, P; Martelli, P; Ferrario, M; Martinelli, M

    2015-01-26

    To face the increased demand for bandwidth, cost-effectiveness and simplicity of future Ethernet data communications, a comparison between two different solutions based on directly-modulated VCSEL sources and Silicon Photonics technologies is carried out. Also by exploiting 4-PAM modulation, the transmission of 50-Gb/s and beyond capacity per channel is analyzed by means of BER performance. Applications for optical backplane, very short reach and in case of client-optics networks and intra and inter massive data centers communications (up to 10 km) are taken into account. A comparative analysis based on the power consumption is also proposed.

  3. Reality based scenarios facilitate knowledge network development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manning, J; Broughton, V; McConnell, E A

    1995-03-01

    The challenge in nursing education is to create a learning environment that enables students to learn new knowledge, access previously acquired information from a variety of disciplines, and apply this newly constructed knowledge to the complex and constantly changing world of practice. Faculty at the University of South Australia, School of Nursing, City Campus describe the use of reality based scenarios to acquire domain-specific knowledge and develop well connected associative knowledge networks, both of which facilitate theory based practice and the student's transition to the role of registered nurse.

  4. Effects of forest management on sustainability of integrated timber and energy wood production. Scenario analysis based on ecosystem model simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Routa, J.

    2011-07-01

    The main aim of this thesis was to study the effects of forest management on the sustainability of integrated timber and energy wood production in Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.), on fertile and medium fertile sites, and Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.), on medium fertile and less fertile sites. In this context, an ecosystem model was used in scenario analyses, which considered the effects of management on the total stem wood production, timber and energy wood production. Furthermore, the management implications for net present value (NPV) and net CO{sub 2} emissions of the use of energy wood was addressed. The management included varying pre-commercial stand density, timing, and intensity of energy wood thinning, N fertilization (Papers 2-4), and rotation length (Paper 4). In addition, the effects of the genetic entry on above-ground biomass production of Norway spruce were studied based on experimental data (Paper 1). In general, the management with higher pre-commercial stand density than that used in basic management and N fertilization clearly increased stem wood production (i.e. sawlogs, pulp and small-sized stem wood), energy wood production (logging residuals, small-sized stem wood, stump wood and roots) and also NPV over the rotation for both Norway spruce and Scots pine, regardless of site fertility type and rotation length used in the simulations (Papers 2-4). However, the total stem wood production and energy wood production were also affected by the timing of energy wood thinning. Fertilization had a positive effect, but the effects of number of applications and amount of N fertilization were negligible on the total stem wood and energy wood production. Additionally, in the case of net CO{sub 2} emissions, the increase of pre-commercial stand density and fertilization clearly decreased the net CO{sub 2} emission in energy production over the rotation regardless of tree species, site fertility type and rotation length used in simulations (Papers

  5. The scenario-based approach adopted in the ELECTRA project for deriving innovate control room functionality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Marinelli, Mattia; Heussen, Kai; Prostejovsky, Alexander

    2017-01-01

    . The paper intends to outline the methodology adopted, which is based on the cognitive work analysis framework, to provide an overview of the most interesting scenarios and to summarize the requirements analysis results. In order to derive required control room functionality, a set of relevant control room...... scenarios have been identified based on the Web-of-Cells control concept. We considered scenarios that challenge traditional control schemes, scenarios that caused major failures (i.e., blackouts) and scenarios that can be expected to appear in the future. For each scenario, information concerning network...

  6. Scenarios in society, society in scenarios: toward a social scientific analysis of storyline-driven environmental modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garb, Yaakov [Jacob Blaustein Institutes for Desert Research, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Midreshet Ben-Gurion, 84990 (Israel); Pulver, Simone [Watson Institute for International Studies, Brown University, Providence, RI 02912 (United States); VanDeveer, Stacy D [Department of Political Science, University of New Hamsphire, Durham, NH 03824 (United States)], E-mail: stacy.vandeveer@unh.edu

    2008-10-15

    Scenario analysis, an approach to thinking about alternative futures based on storyline-driven modeling, has become increasingly common and important in attempts to understand and respond to the impacts of human activities on natural systems at a variety of scales. The construction of scenarios is a fundamentally social activity, yet social scientific perspectives have rarely been brought to bear on it. Indeed, there is a growing imbalance between the increasing technical sophistication of the modeling elements of scenarios and the continued simplicity of our understanding of the social origins, linkages, and implications of the narratives to which they are coupled. Drawing on conceptual and methodological tools from science and technology studies, sociology and political science, we offer an overview of what a social scientific analysis of scenarios might include. In particular, we explore both how scenarios intervene in social microscale and macroscale contexts and how aspects of such contexts are embedded in scenarios, often implicitly. Analyzing the social 'work' of scenarios (i) can enhance the understanding of scenario developers and modeling practitioners of the knowledge production processes in which they participate and (ii) can improve the utility of scenario products as decision-support tools to actual, rather than imagined, decision-makers.

  7. Model-based scenarios of Mediterranean droughts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Weiß

    2007-11-01

    Full Text Available This study examines the change in current 100-year hydrological drought frequencies in the Mediterranean in comparison to the 2070s as simulated by the global model WaterGAP. The analysis considers socio-economic and climate changes as indicated by the IPCC scenarios A2 and B2 and the global general circulation model ECHAM4. Under these conditions today's 100-year drought is estimated to occur 10 times more frequently in the future over a large part of the Northern Mediterranean while in North Africa, today's 100-year drought will occur less frequently. Water abstractions are shown to play a minor role in comparison to the impact of climate change, but can intensify the situation.

  8. Scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pérez-Soba, Marta; Maas, Rob

    2015-01-01

    We cannot predict the future with certainty, but we know that it is influenced by our current actions, and that these in turn are influenced by our expectations. This is why future scenarios have existed from the dawn of civilization and have been used for developing military, political and economic

  9. Scenario

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vidal, Rene Victor Valqui

    1996-01-01

    The main purpose of this paper is to give a synthetic presentation of hte well-known scenario method. Different schools and traditions will be shortly presented. In addition guidelines for hte use of this method will be discussed. Finally, applications will also be outlined as well as some critic...

  10. A scenario based project portfolio selection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kamran Pourahmadi

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available One of the primary assumptions in many project portfolio selection is the availability of all parameters. However, in real-world cases, many parameters are under uncertainty and the exact values are unknown in advance. This paper presents a scenario based mathematical model for project portfolio selection when parameters are under uncertainty. The problem considers two objective functions where the first one maximizes the net present value while the second objective function is the minimization of the positive deviations from the allocation of resources. The second objective function is looking for project resource leveling. The resulted model is formulated as mixed integer programming and the problem is analyzed under different conditions.

  11. Addressing an Uncertain Future Using Scenario Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Siddiqui, Afzal S.; Marnay, Chris

    2006-12-15

    The Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) has had a longstanding goal of introducing uncertainty into the analysis it routinely conducts in compliance with the Government Performance and Results Act (GPRA) and for strategic management purposes. The need to introduce some treatment of uncertainty arises both because it would be good general management practice, and because intuitively many of the technologies under development by EERE have a considerable advantage in an uncertain world. For example, an expected kWh output from a wind generator in a future year, which is not exposed to volatile and unpredictable fuel prices, should be truly worth more than an equivalent kWh from an alternative fossil fuel fired technology. Indeed, analysts have attempted to measure this value by comparing the prices observed in fixed-price natural gas contracts compared to ones in which buyers are exposed to market prices (see Bolinger, Wiser, and Golove and (2004)). In addition to the routine reasons for exploring uncertainty given above, the history of energy markets appears to have exhibited infrequent, but troubling, regime shifts, i.e., historic turning points at which the center of gravity or fundamental nature of the system appears to have abruptly shifted. Figure 1 below shows an estimate of how the history of natural gas fired generating costs has evolved over the last three decades. The costs shown incorporate both the well-head gas price and an estimate of how improving generation technology has gradually tended to lower costs. The purpose of this paper is to explore scenario analysis as a method for introducing uncertainty into EERE's forecasting in a manner consistent with the preceding observation. The two questions are how could it be done, and what is its academic basis, if any. Despite the interest in uncertainty methods, applying them poses some major hurdles because of the heavy reliance of EERE on forecasting tools that are deterministic in

  12. Future Scenarios for Fission Based Reactors

    Science.gov (United States)

    David, S.

    2005-04-01

    The coming century will see the exhaustion of standard fossil fuels, coal, gas and oil, which today represent 75% of the world energy production. Moreover, their use will have caused large-scale emission of greenhouse gases (GEG), and induced global climate change. This problem is exacerbated by a growing world energy demand. In this context, nuclear power is the only GEG-free energy source available today capable of responding significantly to this demand. Some scenarios consider a nuclear energy production of around 5 Gtoe in 2050, wich would represent a 20% share of the world energy supply. Present reactors generate energy from the fission of U-235 and require around 200 tons of natural Uranium to produce 1GWe.y of energy, equivalent to the fission of one ton of fissile material. In a scenario of a significant increase in nuclear energy generation, these standard reactors will consume the whole of the world's estimated Uranium reserves in a few decades. However, natural Uranium or Thorium ore, wich are not themselves fissile, can produce a fissile material after a neutron capture ( 239Pu and 233U respectively). In a breeder reactor, the mass of fissile material remains constant, and the fertile ore is the only material to be consumed. In this case, only 1 ton of natural ore is needed to produce 1GWe.y. Thus, the breeding concept allows optimal use of fertile ore and development of sustainable nuclear energy production for several thousand years into the future. Different sustainable nuclear reactor concepts are studied in the international forum "generation IV". Different types of coolant (Na, Pb and He) are studied for fast breeder reactors based on the Uranium cycle. The thermal Thorium cycle requires the use of a liquid fuel, which can be reprocessed online in order to extract the neutron poisons. This paper presents these different sustainable reactors, based on the Uranium or Thorium fuel cycles and will compare the different options in term of fissile

  13. Expert judgment-based risk assessment using statistical scenario analysis: a case study-running the bulls in Pamplona (Spain).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mallor, Fermín; García-Olaverri, Carmen; Gómez-Elvira, Sagrario; Mateo-Collazas, Pedro

    2008-08-01

    In this article, we present a methodology to assess the risk incurred by a participant in an activity involving danger of injury. The lack of high-quality historical data for the case considered prevented us from constructing a sufficiently detailed statistical model. It was therefore decided to generate a risk assessment model based on expert judgment. The methodology is illustrated in a real case context: the assessment of risk to participants in a San Fermin bull-run in Pamplona (Spain). The members of the panel of "experts on the bull-run" represented very different perspectives on the phenomenon: runners, surgeons and other health care personnel, journalists, civil defense workers, security staff, organizers, herdsmen, authors of books on the bull-run, etc. We consulted 55 experts. Our methodology includes the design of a survey instrument to elicit the experts' views and the statistical and mathematical procedures used to aggregate their subjective opinions.

  14. Scenario Prediction and Analysis of Urban Growth Using SLEUTH Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    FENG Hui-Hui; LIU Hui-Ping; L(U) Ying

    2012-01-01

    Scenario prediction was introduced to better understand urban dynamics and to support urban planning.Taking the Dongguan central urban area of the Pearl River Delta,China as an example,three urban development scenarios,historical trend (HT) scenario,forest protection (FP) scenario,and growth restriction (GR) scenario,were designed and transplanted into the SLEUTH model through the parameter self-modification method.The quantitative analysis results showed that the urban area would expand continuously from 2003 to 2030 under the HT scenario.More land resources would be saved under the GR scenario than FP scenario.Furthermore,the urban growth under the HT and FP scenarios would come to a steady state by 2020,while this deadline of the GR scenario would be postponed to 2025.The spatial pattern analysis using five spatial metrics,class area,number of patches,largest patch index,edge density,and contagion index,showed that under all the scenarios,the urban patches would become bigger and the form would become more compact,and the urban form under the GR scenario would be the smallest and most heterogeneous.These demonstrated that the GR scenario was more effective in meeting the goal of land protection and sustainable development for the study area.

  15. Energy scenario analysis Enova-IFE; Energiscenarioanalyser Enova-IFE

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rosenberg, Eva; Espegren, Kari Aamodt

    2009-11-15

    Institute for Energy Technology has made a projection of energy use in stationary sector of Norway up to 2050 and by the use of the Norwegian MARKAL model analyzed various scenarios. Total increase demand in stationary sectors by 6 TWh, or 4% to 2020 and by 29 TWh or 16% for 2050, which increase primarily comes in the buildings. Scenarios are analyzed to show the long-term potential given the various operating parameters. An important scenario that is analyzed, the fulfillment of renewable directive. In 2005, the renewable share in Norway about 61%. In the analysis it is assumed that the renewable share to be 75% as of 2020. Implementation of energy efficiency will have a crucial role to increase the renewable share, and efficiency contributes with 26 TWh in the base scenario. What percentage of energy efficiency measures are really implemented will have a great impact on how much renewable electricity to be produced, or how much more bio-energy that must be used, in order to achieve the goal of renewable directive. (AG)

  16. Flooding Capability for River-based Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, Curtis L. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Prescott, Steven [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Ryan, Emerald [Idaho State Univ., Pocatello, ID (United States); Calhoun, Donna [Boise State Univ., ID (United States); Sampath, Ramprasad [Centroid Labs., Los Angeles, CA (United States); Anderson, S. Danielle [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Casteneda, Cody [Boise State Univ., ID (United States)

    2015-10-01

    This report describes the initial investigation into modeling and simulation tools for application of riverine flooding representation as part of the Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) Pathway external hazards evaluations. The report provides examples of different flooding conditions and scenarios that could impact river and watershed systems. Both 2D and 3D modeling approaches are described.

  17. Wiki Based Collaborative Learning in Interuniversity Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katzlinger, Elisabeth; Herzog, Michael A.

    2014-01-01

    In business education advanced collaboration skills and media literacy are important for surviving in a globalized business where virtual communication between enterprises is part of the day-by-day business. To transform these global working situations into higher education, a learning scenario between two universities in Germany and Austria was…

  18. The scenario-based generalization of radiation therapy margins

    CERN Document Server

    Fredriksson, Albin

    2015-01-01

    We give a scenario-based treatment plan optimization formulation that is equivalent to planning with geometric margins if the scenario doses are calculated using the static dose cloud approximation. If the scenario doses are instead calculated more accurately, then our formulation provides a novel robust planning method that overcomes many of the difficulties associated with previous scenario-based robust planning methods. In particular, our method protects only against uncertainties that can occur in practice, it gives a sharp dose fall-off outside high dose regions, and it avoids underdosage of the target in ``easy'' scenarios. The method shares the benefits of the previous scenario-based robust planning methods over geometric margins for applications where the static dose cloud approximation is inaccurate, such as irradiation with few fields and irradiation with ion beams. These properties are demonstrated on a suite of phantom cases planned for treatment with scanned proton beams subject to systematic set...

  19. Reliability Analysis of a Green Roof Under Different Storm Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    William, R. K.; Stillwell, A. S.

    2015-12-01

    Urban environments continue to face the challenges of localized flooding and decreased water quality brought on by the increasing amount of impervious area in the built environment. Green infrastructure provides an alternative to conventional storm sewer design by using natural processes to filter and store stormwater at its source. However, there are currently few consistent standards available in North America to ensure that installed green infrastructure is performing as expected. This analysis offers a method for characterizing green roof failure using a visual aid commonly used in earthquake engineering: fragility curves. We adapted the concept of the fragility curve based on the efficiency in runoff reduction provided by a green roof compared to a conventional roof under different storm scenarios. We then used the 2D distributed surface water-groundwater coupled model MIKE SHE to model the impact that a real green roof might have on runoff in different storm events. We then employed a multiple regression analysis to generate an algebraic demand model that was input into the Matlab-based reliability analysis model FERUM, which was then used to calculate the probability of failure. The use of reliability analysis as a part of green infrastructure design code can provide insights into green roof weaknesses and areas for improvement. It also supports the design of code that is more resilient than current standards and is easily testable for failure. Finally, the understanding of reliability of a single green roof module under different scenarios can support holistic testing of system reliability.

  20. An Approach to Scenario Analysis, Generation and Evaluation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chen, Y.; Van Zuylen, H.J.

    2014-01-01

    This article presents an operation-oriented approach for traffic management scenario generation, analysis and evaluation. We start taking a few most applied scenarios from a traffic control centre, analysing each component and structure of the whole, and evaluating the impact of each component and s

  1. Verifying real-time systems against scenario-based requirements

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Kim Guldstrand; Li, Shuhao; Nielsen, Brian;

    2009-01-01

    subset of the LSC language. By equivalently translating an LSC chart into an observer TA and then non-intrusively composing this observer with the original system model, the problem of verifying a real-time system against a scenario-based requirement reduces to a classical real-time model checking......We propose an approach to automatic verification of real-time systems against scenario-based requirements. A real-time system is modeled as a network of Timed Automata (TA), and a scenario-based requirement is specified as a Live Sequence Chart (LSC). We define a trace-based semantics for a kernel...

  2. China ASON Network Migration Scenarios and Their Quantitative Analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Soichiro; Araki; Itaru; Nishioka; Yoshihiko; Suemura

    2003-01-01

    This paper proposes two migration scenarios from China ring networks to ASON mesh networks. In our quantitative analysis with ASON/GMPLS simulator, a subnetwork protection scheme achieved best balanced performance in resource utilization and restoration time.

  3. China ASON Network Migration Scenarios and Their Quantitative Analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Guoying Zhang; Soichiro Araki; Itaru Nishioka; Yoshihiko Suemura

    2003-01-01

    This paper proposes two migration scenarios from China rin g networks to ASON mesh networks . In our quantitative analysis with ASON/GMPLS simulator, a subnetwork protection scheme achieved best balanced performance in resource utilization and restoration time.

  4. Model Performance Evaluation and Scenario Analysis (MPESA) Tutorial

    Science.gov (United States)

    This tool consists of two parts: model performance evaluation and scenario analysis (MPESA). The model performance evaluation consists of two components: model performance evaluation metrics and model diagnostics. These metrics provides modelers with statistical goodness-of-fit m...

  5. Wireless Sensor Networks: Performance Analysis in Indoor Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Ferrari

    2007-03-01

    Full Text Available We evaluate the performance of realistic wireless sensor networks in indoor scenarios. Most of the considered networks are formed by nodes using the Zigbee communication protocol. For comparison, we also analyze networks based on the proprietary standard Z-Wave. Two main groups of network scenarios are proposed: (i scenarios with direct transmissions between the remote nodes and the network coordinator, and (ii scenarios with routers, which relay the packets between the remote nodes and the coordinator. The sensor networks of interest are evaluated considering different performance metrics. In particular, we show how the received signal strength indication (RSSI behaves in the considered scenarios. Then, the network behavior is characterized in terms of end-to-end delay and throughput. In order to confirm the experiments, analytical and simulation results are also derived.

  6. Pre-Test Analysis of Major Scenarios for ATLAS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Euh, Dong-Jin; Choi, Ki-Yong; Park, Hyun-Sik; Kwon, Tae-Soon

    2007-02-15

    A thermal-hydraulic integral effect test facility, ATLAS was constructed at the Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI). The ATLAS is a 1/2 reduced height and 1/288 volume scaled test facility based on the design features of the APR1400. The simulation capability of the ATLAS for major design basis accidents (DBAs), including a large-break loss-of-coolant (LBLOCA), DVI line break and main steam line break (MSLB) accidents, is evaluated by the best-estimate system code, MARS, with the same control logics, transient scenarios and nodalization scheme. The validity of the applied scaling law and the thermal-hydraulic similarity between the ATLAS and the APR1400 for the major design basis accidents are assessed. It is confirmed that the ATLAS has a capability of maintaining an overall similarity with the reference plant APR1400 for the major design basis accidents considered in the present study. However, depending on the accident scenarios, there are some inconsistencies in certain thermal hydraulic parameters. It is found that the inconsistencies are mainly due to the reduced power effect and the increased stored energy in the structure. The present similarity analysis was successful in obtaining a greater insight into the unique design features of the ATLAS and would be used for developing the optimized experimental procedures and control logics.

  7. Scenario analysis for integrated water resources planning and management under uncertainty in the Zayandehrud river basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Safavi, Hamid R.; Golmohammadi, Mohammad H.; Sandoval-Solis, Samuel

    2016-08-01

    The goal of this study is to develop and analyze three scenarios in the Zayandehrud river basin in Iran using a model already built and calibrated by Safavi et al. (2015) that has results for the baseline scenario. Results from the baseline scenario show that water demands will be supplied at the cost of depletion of surface and ground water resources, making this scenario undesirable and unsustainable. Supply Management, Demand Management, and Meta (supply and demand management) scenarios are the selected scenarios in this study. They are to be developed and declared into the Zayandehrud model to assess and evaluate the imminent status of the basin. Certain strategies will be employed for this purpose to improve and rectify the current management policies. The five performance criteria of time-based and volumetric reliability, resilience, vulnerability, and maximum deficit will be employed in the process of scenario analysis and evaluation. The results obtained from the performance criteria will be summed up into a so-called 'Water Resources Sustainability Index' to facilitate comparison among the likely trade-offs. Uncertainties arising from historical data, management policies, rainfall-runoff model, demand priorities, and performance criteria are considered in the proposed conceptual framework and modeled by appropriate approaches. Results show that the Supply Management scenario can be used to improve upon the demand supply but that it has no tangible effects on the improvement of the resources in the study region. In this regard, the Demand Management scenario is found to be more effective than the water supply one although it still remains unacceptable. Results of the Meta scenario indicate that both the supply and demand management scenarios must be applied if the water resources are to be safeguarded against degradation and depletion. In other words, the supply management scenario is necessary but not adequate; rather, it must be coupled to the demand

  8. Technology and Greenhouse Gas Emissions: An IntegratedScenario Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koomey, J.G.; Latiner, S.; Markel, R.J.; Marnay, C.; Richey, R.C.

    1998-09-01

    This report describes an analysis of possible technology-based scenarios for the U.S. energy system that would result in both carbon savings and net economic benefits. We use a modified version of the Energy Information Administration's National Energy Modeling System (LBNL-NEMS) to assess the potential energy, carbon, and bill savings from a portfolio of carbon saving options. This analysis is based on technology resource potentials estimated in previous bottom-up studies, but it uses the integrated LBNL-NEMS framework to assess interactions and synergies among these options. The analysis in this paper builds on previous estimates of possible "technology paths" to investigate four major components of an aggressive greenhouse gas reduction strategy: (1) the large scale implementation of demand-side efficiency, comparable in scale to that presented in two recent policy studies on this topic; (2) a variety of "alternative" electricity supply-side options, including biomass cofiring, extension of the renewable production tax credit for wind, increased industrial cogeneration, and hydropower refurbishment. (3) the economic retirement of older and less efficient existing fossil-find power plants; and (4) a permit charge of $23 per metric ton of carbon (1996 $/t),l assuming that carbon trading is implemented in the US, and that the carbon permit charge equilibrates at this level. This level of carbon permit charge, as discussed later in the report, is in the likely range for the Clinton Administration's position on this topic.

  9. Control Strategy Scenarios for the Alien Lionfish Pterois volitans in Chinchorro Bank (Mexican Caribbean): Based on Semi-Quantitative Loop Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ortiz, Marco; Rodriguez-Zaragoza, Fabián; Hermosillo-Nuñez, Brenda; Jordán, Ferenc

    2015-01-01

    Ecological and eco-social network models were constructed with different levels of complexity in order to represent and evaluate management strategies for controlling the alien species Pterois volitans in Chinchorro bank (Mexican Caribbean). Levins´s loop analysis was used as a methodological framework for assessing the local stability (considered as a component of sustainability) of the modeled management interventions represented by various scenarios. The results provided by models of different complexity (models 1 through 4) showed that a reduction of coral species cover would drive the system to unstable states. In the absence of the alien lionfish, the simultaneous fishing of large benthic epifaunal species, adult herbivorous fish and adult carnivorous fish could be sustainable only if the coral species present high levels of cover (models 2 and 3). Once the lionfish is added to the simulations (models 4 and 5), the analysis suggests that although the exploitation or removal of lionfish from shallow waters may be locally stable, it remains necessary to implement additional and concurrent human interventions that increase the holistic sustainability of the control strategy. The supplementary interventions would require the implementation of programs for: (1) the restoration of corals for increasing their cover, (2) the exploitation or removal of lionfish from deeper waters (decreasing the chance of source/sink meta-population dynamics) and (3) the implementation of bans and re-stocking programs for carnivorous fishes (such as grouper) that increase the predation and competition pressure on lionfish (i.e. biological control). An effective control management for the alien lionfish at Chinchorro bank should not be optimized for a single action plan: instead, we should investigate the concurrent implementation of multiple strategies. PMID:26114745

  10. Metastudy analysis on 2050 energy scenarios. Policy briefing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Foerster, Hannah; Healy, Sean; Loreck, Charlotte; Matthes, Felix [Oeko-Institut e.V. - Institut fuer Angewandte Oekologie, Freiburg im Breisgau (Germany); Fischedick, Manfred; Lechtenboehmer, Stefan; Samadi, Sascha; Venjakob, Johannes [Wuppertal Institut (Germany)

    2012-07-15

    The need for an ''Energy Roadmap 2050'' triggered a multitude of studies that were conducted between 2009 and 2011, which again contained a multitude of decarbonisation scenarios, which achieve the EU's long-term emission mitigation target of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by at least 80% until 2050 (relative to 1990 emissions). The variety of important analysis is difficult to compare and utilize for specific and timely policy decisions. Thus the Smart Energy for Europe Platform (SEFEP) has commissioned a comparative study of relevant energy scenario studies for Europe. The findings of this comparative study are summarized here briefly.

  11. Fast scenario-based design space exploration using feature selection

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Stralen, P.; Pimentel, A.; Mühl, G.; Richling, J.; Herkersdorf, A.

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents a novel approach to efficiently perform early system level design space exploration (DSE) of MultiProcessor System-on-Chip (MPSoC) based embedded systems. By modeling dynamic multi-application workloads using application scenarios, optimal designs can be quickly identified using

  12. An Approach to Traffic Scenario Analysis, Generation and Evaluation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chen, Y.; Van Zuylen, H.J.

    2014-01-01

    Start taking a few most applied scenarios from a traffic control centre, analysing each component and structure of the whole, and evaluating the impact of each component and some typical combinations, based on available monitoring systems. Carrying on such initial research on best practices, we buil

  13. Model-based Scenario Analysis of the Impact of Remediation Measures on Metal Leaching from Soils Contaminated by Historic Smelter Emissions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joris, Ingeborg; Bronders, Jan; van der Grift, Bas; Seuntjens, Piet

    2014-05-01

    A spatially distributed model for leaching of Cd from the unsaturated zone was developed for the Belgian-Dutch transnational Kempen region. The model uses as input land-use maps, atmospheric deposition data, and soil data and is part of a larger regional model that simulates transport of Cd in soil, groundwater, and surface water. A new method for deriving deposition from multiple sites was validated using soil data in different wind directions. Leaching was calculated for the period 1890 to 2010 using a reconstruction of metal loads in the region. The model was able to reproduce spatial patterns of concentrations in soil and groundwater and predicted the concentration in shallow groundwater adequately well for the purpose of evaluating management options. For 42% of the data points, measurements and calculations were within the same concentration class. The model was used for forecasting under a reference scenario, an autonomous development scenario including climate change, and a scenario with implementation of remediation measures. The impact of autonomous development (under the most extreme scenario of climatic change) amounted to an increase of 10% in cumulative Cd flux after 100 yr as compared with the reference scenario. The impact of remediation measures was mainly local and is less pronounced (i.e., only 3% change in cumulative flux at the regional scale). The integrated model served as a tool to assist in developing management strategies and prioritization of remediation of the wide-spread heavy metal contamination in the region.

  14. Integrated Analysis of Market Transformation Scenarios with HyTrans

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Greene, David L [ORNL; Leiby, Paul Newsome [ORNL; Bowman, David Charles [ORNL

    2007-06-01

    This report presents alternative visions of the transition of light-duty vehicle transportation in the United States from petroleum to hydrogen power. It is a supporting document to the U.S. Department of Energy's Summary Report, "Analysis of the Transition to a Hydrogen Economy and the Potential Hydrogen Infrastructure Requirements" (U.S. DOE, 2007). Three alternative early transition scenarios were analyzed using a market simulation model called HyTrans. The HyTrans model simultaneously represents the behavior of fuel suppliers, vehicle manufacturers and consumers, explicitly recognizing the importance of fuel availability and the diversity of vehicle choices to consumers, and dependence of fuel supply on the existence of market demand. Competitive market outcomes are simulated by means of non-linear optimization of social surplus through the year 2050. The three scenarios specify different rates and geographical distributions of market penetration for hydrogen fuel cell vehicles from 2012 through 2025. Scenario 1 leads to 2 million vehicles on U.S. roads by 2025, while Scenarios 2 and 3 result in 5 million and 10 million FCVs in use by 2025, respectively. The HyTrans model "costs out" the transition scenarios and alternative policies for achieving them. It then tests whether the scenarios, together with the achievement of the DOE's technology goals for fuel cell vehicles and hydrogen infrastructure technologies could lead to a sustainable transition to hydrogen powered transportation. Given the achievement of DOE's ambitious technology goals, all three scenarios appear to lead to a sustainable transition to hydrogen. In the absence of early transition deployment effort, no transition is likely to begin before 2045. The cumulative costs of the transition scenarios to the government range from $8 billion to $45 billion, depending on the scenario, the policies adopted and the degree of cost-sharing with industry. In the absence of carbon constraining

  15. Systems analysis of past, present, and future chemical terrorism scenarios.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hoette, Trisha Marie

    2012-03-01

    Throughout history, as new chemical threats arose, strategies for the defense against chemical attacks have also evolved. As a part of an Early Career Laboratory Directed Research and Development project, a systems analysis of past, present, and future chemical terrorism scenarios was performed to understand how the chemical threats and attack strategies change over time. For the analysis, the difficulty in executing chemical attack was evaluated within a framework of three major scenario elements. First, historical examples of chemical terrorism were examined to determine how the use of chemical threats, versus other weapons, contributed to the successful execution of the attack. Using the same framework, the future of chemical terrorism was assessed with respect to the impact of globalization and new technologies. Finally, the efficacy of the current defenses against contemporary chemical terrorism was considered briefly. The results of this analysis justify the need for continued diligence in chemical defense.

  16. Scenario-based Participatory Design for Pervasive Computing

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIU Zhi-qiang; DING Peng; SHENG Huan-ye

    2007-01-01

    Lots of pervasive computing researchers are working on how to realize the user-centered intelligent pervasive computing environment as Mark Weiser figured out. Task abstraction is the fundamentation of configuration for pervasive application. Based on task-oriented and descriptive properties of scenario, a scenario-based participatory design model was proposed to realize the task abstraction. The design model provided users and domain experts a useful mechanism to build the customized applications by separating system model into domain model and design model. In this design model, domain experts, together with users, stakeholders focus on the logic rules (domain model) and programmers work on the implementation (design model). In order to formalize the model description, a human-agent interaction language to transform users' goals and domain rules into executable scenarios was also discussed. An agent platform - describer used to link design and implementation of scenarios was developed to realize the configuration of applications according to different requirements. The demand bus application showed the design process and the usability of this model.

  17. Scenario-based Storm Surge Vulnerability Assessment of Catanduanes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suarez, J. K. B.

    2015-12-01

    After the devastating storm surge effect of Typhoon Haiyan, the public recognized an improved communication about risks, vulnerabilities and what is threatened by storm surge. This can be provided by vulnerability maps which allow better visual presentations and understanding of the risks and vulnerabilities. Local implementers can direct the resources needed for protection of these areas. Moreover, vulnerability and hazard maps are relevant in all phases of disaster management designed by the National Disaster Risk Reduction Council (NDRRMC) - disaster preparedness, prevention and mitigation and response and recovery and rehabilitation. This paper aims to analyze the vulnerability of Catanduanes, a coastal province in the Philippines, to storm surges in terms of four parameters: population, built environment, natural environment and agricultural production. The vulnerability study relies on the storm surge inundation maps based on the Department of Science and Technology Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards' (DOST-Project NOAH) proposed four Storm Surge Advisory (SSA) scenarios (1-2, 3, 4, and 5 meters) for predicting storm surge heights. To determine total percent affected for each parameter elements, an overlay analysis was performed in ArcGIS Desktop. Moreover, vulnerability and hazard maps are generated as a final output and a tool for visualizing the impacts of storm surge event at different surge heights. The result of this study would help the selected province to know their present condition and adapt strategies to strengthen areas where they are found to be most vulnerable in order to prepare better for the future.

  18. Modeling and analysis of long-term energy scenarios for sustainable strategies of Ethiopia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Senshaw, Dereje Azemraw

    2014-04-15

    from 1,313 PJ in 2010. Nevertheless, the energy intensity is expected to decrease gradually across the three scenarios, from 65MJ/$ in base year (2010) to 22, 20 and 13 MJ/$ in 2050 for BAU, Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 respectively. Importantly, under Scenario 2, the energy intensity will decrease with an average annual rate of 3,9%. Certainly, Scenario 2 has the largest capability of energy savings. The per capita primary energy consumption in Scenario 2 is the highest (at annual rate of 4.1%) and followed by Scenario 1 (3.3%) over the period. With respect to energy intensity, energy diversity and per capita consumption, BAU scenario shows is the least preferred option with highest risks related to security and diversity of supply. In Scenario 2, the proportion of oil consumption will decrease to 7.4%, i.e., lower than the values of 17.72% and 11.5% for the BAU and Scenario 1, respectively. The demand for non-conventional renewables is expected to increase significantly in all three scenarios from around 1% in 2010, to 11% 23% and 36.6% for the BAU scenario, Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 respectively over the period of 2010-2050. Overall, under Scenario 2, the degree of diversification in the total energy requirement would increase and gradually will become environmentally friendly in Ethiopia, with rapid growth in the use of alternative clean energy. The absolute CO{sub 2} emissions under the three scenarios from 2010 to 2050 will slightly increase due to the stronger economic development, which still stay within the limits of an ambitious climate change mitigation policy. Nevertheless, Scenario 2 has the lowest CO{sub 2} emission intensity, followed by the Scenario 1 and BAU scenarios. By 2050 the CO{sub 2} emissions intensities of BAU, Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 will reach 0.1, 0.08 and 0.05 kg CO{sub 2} per US$ of GDP, respectively. Overall, the results of analysis demonstrate that the alternative scenarios (Scenario 1 and Scenario 2) would result in a sustainable energy

  19. Analysis of the energy scenario Negawatt 2006; Analyse du scenario energetique negaWatt 2006

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Acket, C.; Bacher, P

    2006-10-15

    The association Negawatt published in 2003 an energy scenario for the France in 2050, under the name of Negawatt 2006. This document aims to analyze the scenario Negawatt with a comparison of the scenario published on the web site of SLC, Save the Climate. The authors analyzes the main three sectors: electricity, transports and residential to propose their comparison in conclusion. (A.L.B.)

  20. Modern Policyholder Preferences and Scenario-Based Projections

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Ninna Reitzel

    This PhD thesis covers aspects of policyholder preferences and life insurance projections based on economic scenarios. Both topics are relevant to policyholders as well as to the life insurance and pension industry—and equally important, the topics give rise to a variety of interesting mathematical...... is important for designing competitive life insurance and savings products and for providing sound advice to policyholders. Preferences come in many shapes and forms. In this thesis, we focus on separation of risk and time preferences and preferences for smooth investment. The latter is modeled with something...... as unconventional as explicit preferences for not trading, and if not careful, the former entails time-inconsistency. From a policyholder and advisory perspective, scenario-based projections allow for tailor-made bonus, benefit, and retirement savings prognoses that illustrate financial riskiness...

  1. Base Station Antenna Pattern Distortion in Practical Urban Deployment Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rodriguez Larrad, Ignacio; Nguyen, Huan Cong; Sørensen, Troels Bundgaard

    2014-01-01

    In real urban deployments, base station antennas are typically not placed in free space conditions. Therefore, the radiation pattern can be affected by mounting structures and nearby obstacles located in the proximity of the antenna (near-field), which are often not taken into consideration. Also...... the intrinsic propagation mechanisms of the urban environment (far-field) can contribute to the distortion of the radiation pattern observed in a practical deployment scenario, especially when comparing it to the antenna pattern provided by the manufacturer and typically measured in free space. This paper...... presents a combination of near-field and far-field simulations aimed to provide an overview of the distortion experienced by the base station antenna pattern in two different urban deployment scenarios: rooftop and telecommunications tower. The study illustrates how, in comparison with the near...

  2. Benefits of Scenario-based Learning in university education

    OpenAIRE

    Elliott-Kingston, Caroline; Doyle, Owen P. E.; Hunter, Alan

    2016-01-01

    As an applied science, horticulture is particularly suited to interactive teaching and learning methods.  Much of the undergraduate learning in horticulture is passive; therefore, more active learning strategies should be introduced. One such active learning technique is scenario-based learning (SBL).  This form of learning allows students to apply academic knowledge to a simulated 'real-life' situation.  It is particularly suited to promoting group participation and learning.  Its use provid...

  3. Robustness Analysis of Real Network Topologies Under Multiple Failure Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Manzano, M.; Marzo, J. L.; Calle, E.

    2012-01-01

    on topological characteristics. Recently approaches also consider the services supported by such networks. In this paper we carry out a robustness analysis of five real backbone telecommunication networks under defined multiple failure scenarios, taking into account the consequences of the loss of established......Nowadays the ubiquity of telecommunication networks, which underpin and fulfill key aspects of modern day living, is taken for granted. Significant large-scale failures have occurred in the last years affecting telecommunication networks. Traditionally, network robustness analysis has been focused...

  4. Mortality estimation based on Business as Usual Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pozzer, Andrea; Lelieveld, Jos; Barlas, Ceren

    2013-04-01

    Air pollution by fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone (O3) has increased strongly with industrialization and urbanization. Epidemiological studies have shown that these pollutants increase lung cancer, cardiopulmonary and respiratory mortality. The atmospheric chemistry general circulation model EMAC has been used to estimate the concentration of such pollutants in recent and future years (2005, 2010, 2025 and 2050), based on a Business as Usual scenario. The emission scenario assumes that population and economic growth largely determine energy consumption and consequent pollution sources ("business as usual"). Based on the modeled pollutants concentrations and the UN estimates of population growth in the future, we assessed the premature mortality and the years of human life lost (YLL) caused by anthropogenic PM2.5 and O3 for epidemiological regions defined by the World Health Organization. The premature mortality for people of 30 years and older were estimated using a health impact function using parameters derived from epidemiological studies. Our results suggest that with a Business as Usual scenario, the ratio between mortality and population would increase of ~ 50% by 2050. This ratio, together with the increase of world population, would lead by the year 2050 to 8.9 millions premature deaths, equivalent to 79 millions of YYL.

  5. Probabilistic scenario-based water resource planning and management:A case study in the Yellow River Basin, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, C.; Schoups, G.; van de Giesen, N.

    2012-04-01

    Water resource planning and management is subject to large uncertainties with respect to the impact of climate change and socio-economic development on water systems. In order to deal with these uncertainties, probabilistic climate and socio-economic scenarios were developed based on the Principle of Maximum Entropy, as defined within information theory, and as inputs to hydrological models to construct probabilistic water scenarios using Monte Carlo simulation. Probabilistic scenarios provide more explicit information than equally-likely scenarios for decision-making in water resource management. A case was developed for the Yellow River Basin, China, where future water availability and water demand are affected by both climate change and socio-economic development. Climate scenarios of future precipitation and temperature were developed based on the results of multiple Global climate models; and socio-economic scenarios were downscaled from existing large-scale scenarios. Probability distributions were assigned to these scenarios to explicitly represent a full set of future possibilities. Probabilistic climate scenarios were used as input to a rainfall-runoff model to simulate future river discharge and socio-economic scenarios for calculating water demand. A full set of possible future water supply-demand scenarios and their associated probability distributions were generated. This set can feed the further analysis of the future water balance, which can be used as a basis to plan and manage water resources in the Yellow River Basin. Key words: Probabilistic scenarios, climate change, socio-economic development, water management

  6. Deriving future oriented research and competence requirements based on scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sonne, Anne-Mette; Harmsen, Hanne; Jensen, Birger Boutrup

    prepare for different possible futures do scenario methods offer real value. A way to try to be better prepared for the future is to deduct competence and research needs given different possible future development described in a number of scenarios. Hence, the aim of this paper is to test the use...... of scenarios for this purpose. Most scenario studies report mostly on the scenario construction, were as we want to focus on the suitability of scenario methods as a mean of deducting competence requirements and research needs. Also scenario techniques have mostly been used on either a company level or a macro...... level. Here we apply the scenario technique at an industry level. We hope our experience with the process will be helpful to practitioners who wish to work with scenarios as well as researchers who may be able to learn from our experiences with an expansion of the scenario method. The Danish food...

  7. Development and analysis of SCR requirements tables for system scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Callahan, John R.; Morrison, Jeffery L.

    1995-01-01

    We describe the use of scenarios to develop and refine requirement tables for parts of the Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS). The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is developing EOSDIS as part of its Mission-To-Planet-Earth (MTPE) project to accept instrument/platform observation requests from end-user scientists, schedule and perform requested observations of the Earth from space, collect and process the observed data, and distribute data to scientists and archives. Current requirements for the system are managed with tools that allow developers to trace the relationships between requirements and other development artifacts, including other requirements. In addition, the user community (e.g., earth and atmospheric scientists), in conjunction with NASA, has generated scenarios describing the actions of EOSDIS subsystems in response to user requests and other system activities. As part of a research effort in verification and validation techniques, this paper describes our efforts to develop requirements tables from these scenarios for the EOSDIS Core System (ECS). The tables specify event-driven mode transitions based on techniques developed by the Naval Research Lab's (NRL) Software Cost Reduction (SCR) project. The SCR approach has proven effective in specifying requirements for large systems in an unambiguous, terse format that enhance identification of incomplete and inconsistent requirements. We describe development of SCR tables from user scenarios and identify the strengths and weaknesses of our approach in contrast to the requirements tracing approach. We also evaluate the capabilities of both approach to respond to the volatility of requirements in large, complex systems.

  8. Hybrid Modeling for Scenario-Based Evaluation of Failure Effects in Advanced Hardware-Software Designs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malin, Jane T.; Fleming, Land; Throop, David

    2001-01-01

    This paper describes an incremental scenario-based simulation approach to evaluation of intelligent software for control and management of hardware systems. A hybrid continuous/discrete event simulation of the hardware dynamically interacts with the intelligent software in operations scenarios. Embedded anomalous conditions and failures in simulated hardware can lead to emergent software behavior and identification of missing or faulty software or hardware requirements. An approach is described for extending simulation-based automated incremental failure modes and effects analysis, to support concurrent evaluation of intelligent software and the hardware controlled by the software

  9. Improvement of nursing students' learning outcomes through scenario-based skills training

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uysal, Nurcan

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Objective: this study analyzed the influence of scenario-based skills training on students' learning skills. Method: the author evaluated the nursing skills laboratory exam papers of 605 sophomores in nursing programs for seven years. The study determined the common mistakes of students and the laboratory work was designed in a scenario-based format. The effectiveness of this method was evaluated by assessing the number of errors the students committed and their achievement scores in laboratory examinations. This study presents the students' common mistakes in intramuscular and subcutaneous injection and their development of intravenous access skills, included in the nursing skills laboratory examination. Results: an analysis of the students' most common mistakes revealed that the most common was not following the principles of asepsis for all three skills (intramuscular, subcutaneous injection, intravenous access) in the first year of the scenario-based training. The students' exam achievement scores increased gradually, except in the fall semester of the academic year 2009-2010. The study found that the scenario-based skills training reduced students' common mistakes in examinations and enhanced their performance on exams. Conclusion: this method received a positive response from both students and instructors. The scenario-based training is available for use in addition to other skills training methods. PMID:27508922

  10. Improvement of nursing students' learning outcomes through scenario-based skills training

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nurcan Uysal

    Full Text Available Abstract Objective: this study analyzed the influence of scenario-based skills training on students' learning skills. Method: the author evaluated the nursing skills laboratory exam papers of 605 sophomores in nursing programs for seven years. The study determined the common mistakes of students and the laboratory work was designed in a scenario-based format. The effectiveness of this method was evaluated by assessing the number of errors the students committed and their achievement scores in laboratory examinations. This study presents the students' common mistakes in intramuscular and subcutaneous injection and their development of intravenous access skills, included in the nursing skills laboratory examination. Results: an analysis of the students' most common mistakes revealed that the most common was not following the principles of asepsis for all three skills (intramuscular, subcutaneous injection, intravenous access in the first year of the scenario-based training. The students' exam achievement scores increased gradually, except in the fall semester of the academic year 2009-2010. The study found that the scenario-based skills training reduced students' common mistakes in examinations and enhanced their performance on exams. Conclusion: this method received a positive response from both students and instructors. The scenario-based training is available for use in addition to other skills training methods.

  11. 基于情景分析的军事物流配送中心选址模型%Location models for military logistics distribution centers based on scenario analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    谢文龙; 魏国强

    2015-01-01

    The location problem of military logistics distribution centers in the uncertain wartime scenarios is studied in this paper. Considering the military logistics system performance optimization and cost saving , two stochastic program-ming models are presented based on scenario analysis. Infrastructure damage, storage capacity and delivery time con-straints are contained in these models. The method to solve this model is discussed. The decision for distribution center loca-tion, type and munitions quantity is given by solving these models. A pair of“preferred-reserve”supply point is assigned for each user before the war in the first model, and the distribution plan under each scenario is given in the second model. Numerical example shows the rationality of the models, illustrates that the second model outperforms the first one.%研究不确定战时情景下的军事物流配送中心选址问题。兼顾军事物流系统性能优化和成本节约建立了两个随机规划模型,模型中引入情景分析,考虑了设施损毁、库容和配送时间约束。讨论了模型求解方法,通过求解模型得到配送中心选址、选型和预置量决策。模型一在情景出现前为每个用户指派了首选与后备供应点,模型二给出了每个情景下的配送方案。仿真算例表明了模型的合理性和解法的有效性,也验证了模型一优于模型二。

  12. Collapse Scenarios of High-Rise Buildings Using Plastic Limit Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Liu

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available The Twin Towers of the World Trade Center (WTC in New York, USA collapsed on 11 September, 2001. The incident is regarded as the most severe disaster for high-rise buildings in history. Investigations into the collapse scenarios are still being conducted. Possible collapse scenarios assessed by local and international experts were reported. Another possible collapse scenario of the WTC based on two hypotheses was proposed in this paper, and the idea of plastic limit analysis was applied to evaluate the approximate limit load. According to the theory analysis and numerical calculations, a conclusion can be drawn that the large fires, aroused by the terrorist attack, play a significant role on the collapse of the WTC.

  13. An Experiment on Graph Analysis Methodologies for Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brothers, Alan J.; Whitney, Paul D.; Wolf, Katherine E.; Kuchar, Olga A.; Chin, George

    2005-09-30

    Visual graph representations are increasingly used to represent, display, and explore scenarios and the structure of organizations. The graph representations of scenarios are readily understood, and commercial software is available to create and manage these representations. The purpose of the research presented in this paper is to explore whether these graph representations support quantitative assessments of the underlying scenarios. The underlying structure of the scenarios is the information that is being targeted in the experiment and the extent to which the scenarios are similar in content. An experiment was designed that incorporated both the contents of the scenarios and analysts’ graph representations of the scenarios. The scenarios’ content was represented graphically by analysts, and both the structure and the semantics of the graph representation were attempted to be used to understand the content. The structure information was not found to be discriminating for the content of the scenarios in this experiment; but, the semantic information was discriminating.

  14. Ontology-based collaborative framework for disaster recovery scenarios

    CERN Document Server

    Ramanathan, Sakkaravarthi; Drira, Khalil; Chassot, Christophe

    2012-01-01

    This paper aims at designing of adaptive framework for supporting collaborative work of different actors in public safety and disaster recovery missions. In such scenarios, firemen and robots interact to each other to reach a common goal; firemen team is equipped with smart devices and robots team is supplied with communication technologies, and should carry on specific tasks. Here, reliable connection is mandatory to ensure the interaction between actors. But wireless access network and communication resources are vulnerable in the event of a sudden unexpected change in the environment. Also, the continuous change in the mission requirements such as inclusion/exclusion of new actor, changing the actor's priority and the limitations of smart devices need to be monitored. To perform dynamically in such case, the presented framework is based on a generic multi-level modeling approach that ensures adaptation handled by semantic modeling. Automated self-configuration is driven by rule-based reconfiguration polici...

  15. Designing Collaborative Learning Environments Using Educational Scenarios Based on SR

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fotini Paraskeva

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available As more and more studies acknowledge that students are basic contributors to the learning process, factors such as self concept, (computer self-efficacy and self-regulation are important in enhancing human performance. Nevertheless, these learner characteristics have received little attention in the e-learning environment. This paper presents the results of a study indicating significant positive relationships between learner characteristics, such as self-concept (academic achievement and job achievement, Computer Self Efficacy (CSE and Self-Regulation (SR constructs. Acknowledging the requirement for a strong shift of students towards developing self-regulated scenarios and strategies, we suggest that collaborative e-learning environments should be designed according to the self-regulated theory and self-beliefs. As a result, in this study we present a model examining how we can design educational scenarios based on self-regulation theory in a collaborative e-learning environment. This model is a tool for conducting experiments in e-learning university courses, studying the design, development and evaluation of the collaborative learning process.

  16. Map-Based Channel Model for Urban Macrocell Propagation Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jose F. Monserrat

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The evolution of LTE towards 5G has started and different research projects and institutions are in the process of verifying new technology components through simulations. Coordination between groups is strongly recommended and, in this sense, a common definition of test cases and simulation models is needed. The scope of this paper is to present a realistic channel model for urban macrocell scenarios. This model is map-based and takes into account the layout of buildings situated in the area under study. A detailed description of the model is given together with a comparison with other widely used channel models. The benchmark includes a measurement campaign in which the proposed model is shown to be much closer to the actual behavior of a cellular system. Particular attention is given to the outdoor component of the model, since it is here where the proposed approach is showing main difference with other previous models.

  17. A Two-Account Life Insurance Model for Scenario-Based Valuation Including Event Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Ninna Reitzel; Schomacker, Kristian Juul

    2015-01-01

    Using a two-account model with event risk, we model life insurance contracts taking into account both guaranteed and non-guaranteed payments in participating life insurance as well as in unit-linked insurance. Here, event risk is used as a generic term for life insurance events, such as death......, disability, etc. In our treatment of participating life insurance, we have special focus on the bonus schemes “consolidation” and “additional benefits”, and one goal is to formalize how these work and interact. Another goal is to describe similarities and differences between participating life insurance...... model by conducting scenario analysis based on Monte Carlo simulation, but the model applies to scenarios in general and to worst-case and best-estimate scenarios in particular. In addition to easy computations, our model offers a common framework for the valuation of life insurance payments across...

  18. In vitro Quinolones Susceptibility Analysis of Chinese Mycoplasma bovis Isolates and their Phylogenetic Scenarios based upon QRDRs of DNA Topoisomerases Revealing a Unique Transition in ParC

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Riaz Mustafa1,2,3, Jingjing Qi1,2, Xiaoliang Ba1,2, Yingyu Chen1,4, Changmin Hu1,2, Xiaole Liu1,2, Lingling Tu5, Qingjie Peng5, Huanchun Chen1,2 and Aizhen Guo1,2*

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Mycoplasma bovis can cause different systemic problems in cattle, and recently has been resulted in huge economic losses in China. In vitro susceptibilities of 26 twice sub-cultured Chinese M. bovis field isolates were determined at physiological pH including PG45 through broth micro-dilution method. Except Huanggang isolate, all isolates and PG45 were in the sensitive range for levofloxacin, lomefloxacin and ciprofloxacin, whereas, for norfloxacin and nalidixic acid, they had shown intermediate resistant and complete resistant patterns, respectively. The multiple sequence analysis revealed point mutations in QRDRs of gyrA and parC genes of Huanggang isolate resulting in amino acid substitutions at positions 83 (S-F in GyrA (E. coli numbering and 80 (S-I in ParC proteins, the latter is reported for first time in M. bovis. Conclusively, fluoroquinolones are the potential veterinary therapeutic agents for mycoplasmosis in China and resistance to these agents comes through point mutations in QRDRs of gyrA and parC genes with ParC and GyrA mutation orientation.

  19. Global Sensitivity Analysis for Multiple Scenarios and Models of Nitrogen Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Z.; Shi, L.; Ye, M.

    2015-12-01

    Modeling nitrogen process in soil is a long-lasting challenge partly because of the uncertainties from parameters, models and scenarios. It may be difficult to identify a suitable model and its corresponding parameters.This study assesses the global sensitivity indices for parameters of multiple models and scenarios on nitrogen processes. The majority of existing nitrogen dynamics models consider nitrification and denitrification as a first-order decay process or a Michaelis-Menten model, while various reduction functions are used to reflect the impact of environmental soil conditions. To determine the model uncertainty, 9 alternative models were designed based on NP2D model in this study. These models have the similar descriptions of nitrogen process but are different in the cal reduction functions of soil water and temperature. A global sensitivity analysis of each models under various scenarios was evaluated. Results show that in our synthetic cases of nitrogen transport and transformation, the global sensitivity indices vary between each models and scenarios. Larger indices for parameters of nitrification are obtained than the ones of denitrification in 6 models, while an inverse relationship is revealed in the rest 3 models. Parameters of soil temperature reduction functions are more sensitive than those of soil water reduction functions. When the soil water and temperature increase separately or together, parameters of denitrification gain their sensitivity, but the indices for parameters of soil temperature reduction functions decrease simultaneously. Our results indicate that identifying important parameters may be biased if ignoring the model and scenario uncertainties. This problem can be resolved by using the global sensitivity indices for multiple models and multiple scenarios. The new indices is useful to determine the relative contributions from different models and scenarios.

  20. Effect analysis of transient scenarios for successful water management strategies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Haasnoot, M.; Middelkoop, H.; Deursen, van W.; Beek, van E.; Beersma, J.; Erdbrink, C.D.; Os, van A.G.

    2008-01-01

    Recent scenario studies on water management focus on one or two projection years and the effects on the water system and functions. The future is however more complex and dynamic. Therefore, we analyse transient scenarios in order to evaluate the performance of water management strategies. Current a

  1. Using Groupware to Build a Scenario-Based Early Warning System

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mullekom, T.L. van; Vennix, J.A.M.

    2004-01-01

    Scenario analysis has been used as a technique to support strategy formulation for several decades. During scenario analyses, the effects of different possible futures (scenarios) on the performance of an organization are assessed. Moreover, actions are formulated to deal with these effects. This an

  2. The Environmental Scenario Generator (ESG: a distributed environmental data archive analysis tool

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E A Kihn

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The Environmental Scenario Generator (ESG is a network distributed software system designed to allow a user to interact with archives of environmental data for the purpose of scenario extraction, data analysis and integration with existing models that require environmental input. The ESG uses fuzzy-logic based search tools to allow a user to look for specific environmental scenarios in vast archives by specifying the search in human linguistic terms. For example, the user can specify a scenario such as a "cloud free week" or "high winds and low pressure" and then search relevant archives available across the network to get a list of matching events. The ESG hooks to existing archives of data by providing a simple communication framework and an efficient data model for exchanging data. Once data has been delivered by the distributed archives in the ESG data model, it can easily be accessed by the visualization, integration and analysis components to meet specific user requests. The ESG implementation provides a framework which can be taken as a pattern applicable to other distributed archive systems.

  3. A scenario-based MCDA framework for wastewater infrastructure planning under uncertainty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Jun; Egger, Christoph; Lienert, Judit

    2016-12-01

    Wastewater infrastructure management is increasingly important because of urbanization, environmental pollutants, aging infrastructures, and climate change. We propose a scenario-based multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) framework to compare different infrastructure alternatives in terms of their sustainability. These range from the current centralized system to semi- and fully decentralized options. Various sources of uncertainty are considered, including external socio-economic uncertainty captured by future scenarios, uncertainty in predicting outcomes of alternatives, and incomplete preferences of stakeholders. Stochastic Multi-criteria Acceptability Analysis (SMAA) with Monte Carlo simulation is performed, and rank acceptability indices help identify robust alternatives. We propose step-wise local sensitivity analysis, which is useful for practitioners to effectively elicit preferences and identify major sources of uncertainty. The approach is demonstrated in a Swiss case study where ten stakeholders are involved throughout. Their preferences are quantitatively elicited by combining an online questionnaire with face-to-face interviews. The trade-off questions reveal a high concern about environmental and an unexpectedly low importance of economic criteria. This results in a surprisingly good ranking of high-tech decentralized wastewater alternatives using urine source separation for most stakeholders in all scenarios. Combining scenario planning and MCDA proves useful, as the performance of wastewater infrastructure systems is indeed sensitive to socio-economic boundary conditions and the other sources of uncertainty. The proposed sensitivity analysis suggests that a simplified elicitation procedure is sufficient in many cases. Elicitation of more information such as detailed marginal value functions should only follow if the sensitivity analysis finds this necessary. Moreover, the uncertainty of rankings can be considerably reduced by better predictions

  4. Scenario-based design: A method for connecting information system design with public health operations and emergency management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reeder, Blaine; Turner, Anne M

    2011-01-01

    Responding to public health emergencies requires rapid and accurate assessment of workforce availability under adverse and changing circumstances. However, public health information systems to support resource management during both routine and emergency operations are currently lacking. We applied scenario-based design as an approach to engage public health practitioners in the creation and validation of an information design to support routine and emergency public health activities. Methods: Using semi-structured interviews we identified the information needs and activities of senior public health managers of a large municipal health department during routine and emergency operations. Results: Interview analysis identified twenty-five information needs for public health operations management. The identified information needs were used in conjunction with scenario-based design to create twenty-five scenarios of use and a public health manager persona. Scenarios of use and persona were validated and modified based on follow-up surveys with study participants. Scenarios were used to test and gain feedback on a pilot information system. Conclusion: The method of scenario-based design was applied to represent the resource management needs of senior-level public health managers under routine and disaster settings. Scenario-based design can be a useful tool for engaging public health practitioners in the design process and to validate an information system design. PMID:21807120

  5. Integrated physics analysis of plasma start-up scenario of helical reactor FFHR-d1

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goto, T.; Miyazawa, J.; Sakamoto, R.; Seki, R.; Suzuki, C.; Yokoyama, M.; Satake, S.; Sagara, A.; The FFHR Design Group

    2015-06-01

    1D physics analysis of the plasma start-up scenario of the large helical device (LHD)-type helical reactor FFHR-d1 was conducted. The time evolution of the plasma profile is calculated using a simple model based on the LHD experimental observations. A detailed assessment of the magnetohydrodynamic equilibrium and neo-classical energy loss was conducted using the integrated transport analysis code TASK3D. The robust controllability of the fusion power was confirmed by feedback control of the pellet fuelling and a simple staged variation of the external heating power with a small number of simple diagnostics (line-averaged electron density, edge electron density and fusion power). A baseline operation control scenario (plasma start-up and steady-state sustainment) of the FFHR-d1 reactor for both self-ignition and sub-ignition operation modes was demonstrated.

  6. Model Independent Framework for Analysis of Scenarios with Multiple Heavy Extra Quarks

    CERN Document Server

    Barducci, Daniele; Buchkremer, Mathieu; Cacciapaglia, Giacomo; Deandrea, Aldo; De Curtis, Stefania; Marrouche, Jad; Moretti, Stefano; Panizzi, Luca

    2014-01-01

    In this paper we present an analysis strategy and a dedicated tool to determine the exclusion confidence level for any scenario involving multiple heavy extra quarks with generic decay channels, as predicted in several extensions of the Standard Model. We have created, validated and used a software package, called XQCAT (eXtra Quark Combined Analysis Tool), which is based on publicly available experimental data from direct searches for top partners and from Supersymmetry inspired searches. The code will soon be publicly available and will be upgraded to include data from new searches. By means of this code, we recast the limits from CMS on new heavy extra quarks considering a complete set of decay channels. The resulting exclusion confidence levels are presented for some simple scenarios with multiple states and general coupling assumptions. Highlighting the importance of combining multiple topology searches to obtain accurate re-interpretations of the existing searches, we discuss the reach of the SUSY analy...

  7. Evaluating climate change adaptation options for urban flooding in Copenhagen based on new high‐end emission scenario simulations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Leonhardsen, Lykke; Madsen, Henrik

    2014-01-01

    Climate change adaptation studies on urban flooding are often based on a model chain approach from climate forcing scenarios to analysis of adaptation measures. Previous analyses of impacts in Denmark using ensemble projections of the A1B scenario are supplemented by two high‐end scenario...... to change substantially. The impacts are assessed using Copenhagen as a case study. For both types of extremes large adaptation measures are essential in the global six degree scenario; dikes must be constructed to mitigate sea surge risk and a variety of measures to store or convey storm water must...... be implemented as well as new paradigms for city planning to mitigate the impact of change in extreme precipitation risk. For both hazards business‐as‐usual are not possible scenarios, because large autonomous adaptation will occur in lack of suitable policy‐driven changes. Copenhagen has developed an adaptation...

  8. Hydrogen Financial Analysis Scenario Tool (H2FAST). Web Tool User's Manual

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bush, B. [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Penev, M. [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Melaina, M. [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Zuboy, J. [Independent Consultant, Golden, CO (United States)

    2015-05-11

    The Hydrogen Financial Analysis Scenario Tool (H2FAST) provides a quick and convenient indepth financial analysis for hydrogen fueling stations. This manual describes how to use the H2FAST web tool, which is one of three H2FAST formats developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). Although all of the formats are based on the same financial computations and conform to generally accepted accounting principles (FASAB 2014, Investopedia 2014), each format provides a different level of complexity and user interactivity.

  9. Some Methods for Scenario Analysis in Defence Strategic Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scenarios are an important tool in the strategic planning process, and are increasingly used in both the Defence and business world. This paper...illustrated with small examples. We also demonstrate a single, flexible approach to combining these methods using a typical Defence strategic planning problem

  10. Scenario-Based Digital Forensics Challenges in Cloud Computing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erik Miranda Lopez

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The aim of digital forensics is to extract information to answer the 5Ws (Why, When, Where, What, and Who from the data extracted from the evidence. In order to achieve this, most digital forensic processes assume absolute control of digital evidence. However, in a cloud environment forensic investigation, this is not always possible. Additionally, the unique characteristics of cloud computing create new technical, legal and architectural challenges when conducting a forensic investigation. We propose a hypothetical scenario to uncover and explain the challenges forensic practitioners face during cloud investigations. Additionally, we also provide solutions to address the challenges. Our hypothetical case scenario has shown that, in the long run, better live forensic tools, development of new methods tailored for cloud investigations and new procedures and standards are indeed needed. Furthermore, we have come to the conclusion that forensic investigations biggest challenge is not technical but legal.

  11. SWAT meta-modeling as support of the management scenario analysis in large watersheds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azzellino, A; Çevirgen, S; Giupponi, C; Parati, P; Ragusa, F; Salvetti, R

    2015-01-01

    In the last two decades, numerous models and modeling techniques have been developed to simulate nonpoint source pollution effects. Most models simulate the hydrological, chemical, and physical processes involved in the entrainment and transport of sediment, nutrients, and pesticides. Very often these models require a distributed modeling approach and are limited in scope by the requirement of homogeneity and by the need to manipulate extensive data sets. Physically based models are extensively used in this field as a decision support for managing the nonpoint source emissions. A common characteristic of this type of model is a demanding input of several state variables that makes the calibration and effort-costing in implementing any simulation scenario more difficult. In this study the USDA Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to model the Venice Lagoon Watershed (VLW), Northern Italy. A Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) network was trained on SWAT simulations and used as a meta-model for scenario analysis. The MLP meta-model was successfully trained and showed an overall accuracy higher than 70% both on the training and on the evaluation set, allowing a significant simplification in conducting scenario analysis.

  12. Information for policy makers 2. Analysis of the EU's energy roadmap 2050 scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Foerster, Hannah; Healy, Sean; Loreck, Charlotte; Matthes, Felix [Oeko-Institut e.V. - Institut fuer Angewandte Oekologie, Freiburg im Breisgau (Germany); Fischedick, Manfred; Lechtenboehmer, Stefan; Samadi, Sascha; Venjakob, Johannes [Wuppertal Institut (Germany)

    2012-05-15

    With growing concerns about climate change, energy import dependency and increasing fuel costs, a political consensus has formed in Europe in recent years about the need to transform the way we supply and consume energy. However, there is less political consensus on the specific steps that need to be taken in order to achieve a future sustainable energy system. Questions about which technologies should be used to what extent and how fast changes in the energy system should be instituted are being discussed on the European Union as well as on the Member State level. Energy scenarios are seen as a helpful tool to guide and inform these discussions. Several scenario studies on the European energy system have been released in recent years by stakeholders like environmental NGOs and industry associations. A number of these studies have recently been analysed by the Oeko-Institut and the Wuppertal Institute within an ongoing project commissioned by the Smart Energy for Europe Platform (SEFEF). The project aims to advance the debate on the decarbonisation of the energy system in the EU as well as its Member States during the course of 2012 and to make contributions to the scientific literature on this topic. Analysis within the project focuses on the development of the electricity system, as this system today is the main source for CO{sub 2} emissions and is widely regarded to be the key to any future decarbonisation pathway. The paper at hand summarises the analyses accomplished based on scenarios developed within the recently released Energy Roadmap 2050 of the European Union. The Roadmap explores different energy system pathways, which are compatible with the EU's long-term climate targets. It is a highly influential publication and will play a significant role in determining what will follow the EU's 2020 energy agenda. The Roadmap's analysis is currently discussed by EU and Member States policymakers as well as by stakeholders throughout Europe

  13. Earthquake scenarios based on lessons from the past

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solakov, Dimcho; Simeonova, Stella; Aleksandrova, Irena; Popova, Iliana

    2010-05-01

    Earthquakes are the most deadly of the natural disasters affecting the human environment; indeed catastrophic earthquakes have marked the whole human history. Global seismic hazard and vulnerability to earthquakes are increasing steadily as urbanization and development occupy more areas that are prone to effects of strong earthquakes. Additionally, the uncontrolled growth of mega cities in highly seismic areas around the world is often associated with the construction of seismically unsafe buildings and infrastructures, and undertaken with an insufficient knowledge of the regional seismicity peculiarities and seismic hazard. The assessment of seismic hazard and generation of earthquake scenarios is the first link in the prevention chain and the first step in the evaluation of the seismic risk. The implementation of the earthquake scenarios into the policies for seismic risk reduction will allow focusing on the prevention of earthquake effects rather than on intervention following the disasters. The territory of Bulgaria (situated in the eastern part of the Balkan Peninsula) represents a typical example of high seismic risk area. Over the centuries, Bulgaria has experienced strong earthquakes. At the beginning of the 20-the century (from 1901 to 1928) five earthquakes with magnitude larger than or equal to MS=7.0 occurred in Bulgaria. However, no such large earthquakes occurred in Bulgaria since 1928, which may induce non-professionals to underestimate the earthquake risk. The 1986 earthquake of magnitude MS=5.7 occurred in the central northern Bulgaria (near the town of Strazhitsa) is the strongest quake after 1928. Moreover, the seismicity of the neighboring countries, like Greece, Turkey, former Yugoslavia and Romania (especially Vrancea-Romania intermediate earthquakes), influences the seismic hazard in Bulgaria. In the present study deterministic scenarios (expressed in seismic intensity) for two Bulgarian cities (Rouse and Plovdiv) are presented. The work on

  14. "The Strawberry Caper": Using Scenario-Based Problem Solving to Integrate Middle School Science Topics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonda, Rebecca L.; DeHart, Kyle; Ashman, Tia-Lynn; Legg, Alison Slinskey

    2015-01-01

    Achieving a deep understanding of the many topics covered in middle school biology classes is difficult for many students. One way to help students learn these topics is through scenario-based learning, which enhances students' performance. The scenario-based problem-solving module presented here, "The Strawberry Caper," not only…

  15. Case studies of scenario analysis for adaptive management of natural resource and infrastructure systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hamilton, M.C.; Thekdi, S.A.; Jenicek, E.M.;

    2013-01-01

    of emergent conditions and help to avoid regret and belated action. The purpose of this paper is to present several case studies in natural resources and infrastructure systems management where scenario analysis has been used to aide decision making under uncertainty. The case studies include several resource...... to scenario analysis provides insight into both high-performing and robust initiatives/policies, and, perhaps more importantly, influential scenarios. Identifying the scenarios that are most influential to policy making helps to direct further investigative analysis, modeling, and data-collection efforts......Management of natural resources and infrastructure systems for sustainability is complicated by uncertainties in the human and natural environment. Moreover, decisions are further complicated by contradictory views, values, and concerns that are rarely made explicit. Scenario analysis can play...

  16. Model-based Evaluation of Location-based Relaying Policies in a Realistic Mobile Indoor Scenario

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jimmy Jessen; Olsen, Rasmus Løvenstein; Madsen, Tatiana Kozlova

    2012-01-01

    developed Markov Chain model for a realistic indoor scenario that is based on ray-tracing enriched measurements from the WHERE2 project. These results are furthermore compared to results obtained using an idealistic path loss model, and it is shown that the performance impact of node mobility...

  17. Scenario simulation based assessment of subsurface energy storage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beyer, C.; Bauer, S.; Dahmke, A.

    2014-12-01

    Energy production from renewable sources such as solar or wind power is characterized by temporally varying power supply. The politically intended transition towards renewable energies in Germany („Energiewende") hence requires the installation of energy storage technologies to compensate for the fluctuating production. In this context, subsurface energy storage represents a viable option due to large potential storage capacities and the wide prevalence of suited geological formations. Technologies for subsurface energy storage comprise cavern or deep porous media storage of synthetic hydrogen or methane from electrolysis and methanization, or compressed air, as well as heat storage in shallow or moderately deep porous formations. Pressure build-up, fluid displacement or temperature changes induced by such operations may affect local and regional groundwater flow, geomechanical behavior, groundwater geochemistry and microbiology. Moreover, subsurface energy storage may interact and possibly be in conflict with other "uses" like drinking water abstraction or ecological goods and functions. An utilization of the subsurface for energy storage therefore requires an adequate system and process understanding for the evaluation and assessment of possible impacts of specific storage operations on other types of subsurface use, the affected environment and protected entities. This contribution presents the framework of the ANGUS+ project, in which tools and methods are developed for these types of assessments. Synthetic but still realistic scenarios of geological energy storage are derived and parameterized for representative North German storage sites by data acquisition and evaluation, and experimental work. Coupled numerical hydraulic, thermal, mechanical and reactive transport (THMC) simulation tools are developed and applied to simulate the energy storage and subsurface usage scenarios, which are analyzed for an assessment and generalization of the imposed THMC

  18. Analysis of advanced european nuclear fuel cycle scenarios including transmutation and economical estimates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Merino Rodriguez, I.; Alvarez-Velarde, F.; Martin-Fuertes, F. [CIEMAT, Avda. Complutense, 40, 28040 Madrid (Spain)

    2013-07-01

    In this work the transition from the existing Light Water Reactors (LWR) to the advanced reactors is analyzed, including Generation III+ reactors in a European framework. Four European fuel cycle scenarios involving transmutation options have been addressed. The first scenario (i.e., reference) is the current fleet using LWR technology and open fuel cycle. The second scenario assumes a full replacement of the initial fleet with Fast Reactors (FR) burning U-Pu MOX fuel. The third scenario is a modification of the second one introducing Minor Actinide (MA) transmutation in a fraction of the FR fleet. Finally, in the fourth scenario, the LWR fleet is replaced using FR with MOX fuel as well as Accelerator Driven Systems (ADS) for MA transmutation. All scenarios consider an intermediate period of GEN-III+ LWR deployment and they extend for a period of 200 years looking for equilibrium mass flows. The simulations were made using the TR-EVOL code, a tool for fuel cycle studies developed by CIEMAT. The results reveal that all scenarios are feasible according to nuclear resources demand (U and Pu). Concerning to no transmutation cases, the second scenario reduces considerably the Pu inventory in repositories compared to the reference scenario, although the MA inventory increases. The transmutation scenarios show that elimination of the LWR MA legacy requires on one hand a maximum of 33% fraction (i.e., a peak value of 26 FR units) of the FR fleet dedicated to transmutation (MA in MOX fuel, homogeneous transmutation). On the other hand a maximum number of ADS plants accounting for 5% of electricity generation are predicted in the fourth scenario (i.e., 35 ADS units). Regarding the economic analysis, the estimations show an increase of LCOE (Levelized cost of electricity) - averaged over the whole period - with respect to the reference scenario of 21% and 29% for FR and FR with transmutation scenarios respectively, and 34% for the fourth scenario. (authors)

  19. The role of scenario analysis in water resources management in Yanqi Basin, Xinjiang, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, N.; Kinzelbach, W. K.; Li, W.; Dong, X.

    2011-12-01

    With the rapid increase of world population and food demand, the demand for water resources is also increasing. At the same time shifts in rain patterns due to global climate change make the water resources situation more uncertain. A global water crisis can therefore not be excluded. The socio-economic and environmental problems induced by such a water crisis are especially prominent in arid and semiarid regions. The Yanqi Basin in Xinjiang province is a typical case study in China's arid and semi-arid areas, where rainfall is scarce and evaporation is extremely high. Thus its water resources have been under great pressure to satisfy the increasing water demand of agriculture and urban and industrial expansion in the last decades. The development has been accompanied by a number of environmental problems. Yanqi Basin is an important cultivated area which is irrigated by water diverted from rivers. Because of the long-term flood irrigation and an inefficient drainage system, the groundwater level under the cultivated area rose, accelerating the phreatic evaporation and leading to increased soil salinization. Simultaneously, the water quantity and quality of Boston Lake have been impaired in past years because of the decreased river discharge and the increased salt flux contained in the drainage discharge. Thus the ecosystems depending on the inflow to and outflow from the lake suffered. The riverine forests in the downstream area were degraded due to declining groundwater levels, and aquatic life as well as downstream water users had to cope with deteriorating water quality. The big challenge for decision makers in the basin is how to balance the justified requirements of agriculture, industrial development and the ecosystem. In order to provide a scientific basis to the decision making process, a scenario analysis was adopted. Here several scenarios are proposed: the basic scenario, scenario 1, describes the status of the year 2008. A second scenario maximizes the

  20. Validation and Scenario Analysis of a Soil Organic Carbon Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    HUANG Yao; LIU Shi-liang; SHEN Qi-rong; ZONG Liang-gang; JIANG Ding-an; HUANG Hong-guang

    2002-01-01

    A model developed by the authors was validated against independent data sets. The data sets were obtained from field experiments of crop residue decomposition and a 7-year soil improvement in Yixing City, Jiangsu Province. Model validation indicated that soil organic carbon dynamics can be simulated from the weather variables of temperature, sunlight and precipitation, soil clay content and bulk density, grain yield of previous crops, qualities and quantities of the added organic matter. Model simulation in general agreed with the measurements. The comparison between computed and measured resulted in correlation coefficient γ2 values of 0.9291 * * * (n = 48) and 0. 6431 * * (n = 65) for the two experiments, respectively. Model prediction under three scenarios of no additional organic matter input, with an annual incorporation of rice and wheat straw at rates of 6.75t/ha and 9.0t/ha suggested that the soil organic carbon in Wanshi Township of Yixing City would be from an initial value of 7.85g/kg in 1983 to 6.30g/kg, 11.42g/kg and 13g/kg in 2014, respectively. Consequently, total nitrogen content of the soil was predicted to be respectively 0.49g/kg,0.89g/kg and 1.01g/kg under the three scenarios.

  1. Radiation Detection Scenario Analysis Toolbox (RADSAT) Test Case Implementation Final Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shaver, Mark W.

    2010-09-27

    Final report for the project. This project was designed to demonstrate the use of the Radiation Detection Scenario Analysis Toolbox (RADSAT) radiation detection transport modeling package (developed in a previous NA-22 project) for specific radiation detection scenarios important to proliferation detection.

  2. Hydrogen Financial Analysis Scenario Tool (H2FAST); NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Melaina, Marc

    2015-04-21

    This presentation describes the Hydrogen Financial Analysis Scenario Tool, H2FAST, and provides an overview of each of the three H2FAST formats: the H2FAST web tool, the H2FAST Excel spreadsheet, and the H2FAST Business Case Scenario (BCS) tool. Examples are presented to illustrate the types of questions that H2FAST can help answer.

  3. Overview of the Hydrogen Financial Analysis Scenario Tool (H2FAST); NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Melaina, Marc; Bush, Brian; Penev, Michael

    2015-05-12

    This presentation provides an introduction to the Hydrogen Financial Analysis Scenario Tool (H2FAST) and includes an overview of each of the three versions of H2FAST: the Web tool, the Excel spreadsheet version, and the beta version of the H2FAST Business Case Scenario tool.

  4. Scenario based seismic hazard assessment and its application to the seismic verification of relevant buildings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romanelli, Fabio; Vaccari, Franco; Altin, Giorgio; Panza, Giuliano

    2016-04-01

    The procedure we developed, and applied to a few relevant cases, leads to the seismic verification of a building by: a) use of a scenario based neodeterministic approach (NDSHA) for the calculation of the seismic input, and b) control of the numerical modeling of an existing building, using free vibration measurements of the real structure. The key point of this approach is the strict collaboration, from the seismic input definition to the monitoring of the response of the building in the calculation phase, of the seismologist and the civil engineer. The vibrometry study allows the engineer to adjust the computational model in the direction suggested by the experimental result of a physical measurement. Once the model has been calibrated by vibrometric analysis, one can select in the design spectrum the proper range of periods of interest for the structure. Then, the realistic values of spectral acceleration, which include the appropriate amplification obtained through the modeling of a "scenario" input to be applied to the final model, can be selected. Generally, but not necessarily, the "scenario" spectra lead to higher accelerations than those deduced by taking the spectra from the national codes (i.e. NTC 2008, for Italy). The task of the verifier engineer is to act so that the solution of the verification is conservative and realistic. We show some examples of the application of the procedure to some relevant (e.g. schools) buildings of the Trieste Province. The adoption of the scenario input has given in most of the cases an increase of critical elements that have to be taken into account in the design of reinforcements. However, the higher cost associated with the increase of elements to reinforce is reasonable, especially considering the important reduction of the risk level.

  5. A Two-Account Life Insurance Model for Scenario-Based Valuation Including Event Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ninna Reitzel Jensen

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Using a two-account model with event risk, we model life insurance contracts taking into account both guaranteed and non-guaranteed payments in participating life insurance as well as in unit-linked insurance. Here, event risk is used as a generic term for life insurance events, such as death, disability, etc. In our treatment of participating life insurance, we have special focus on the bonus schemes “consolidation” and “additional benefits”, and one goal is to formalize how these work and interact. Another goal is to describe similarities and differences between participating life insurance and unit-linked insurance. By use of a two-account model, we are able to illustrate general concepts without making the model too abstract. To allow for complicated financial markets without dramatically increasing the mathematical complexity, we focus on economic scenarios. We illustrate the use of our model by conducting scenario analysis based on Monte Carlo simulation, but the model applies to scenarios in general and to worst-case and best-estimate scenarios in particular. In addition to easy computations, our model offers a common framework for the valuation of life insurance payments across product types. This enables comparison of participating life insurance products and unit-linked insurance products, thus building a bridge between the two different ways of formalizing life insurance products. Finally, our model distinguishes itself from the existing literature by taking into account the Markov model for the state of the policyholder and, hereby, facilitating event risk.

  6. Tactical decision games - developing scenario-based training for decision-making in distributed teams

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lauche, K.; Crichton, M.; Bayerl, P.S.

    2009-01-01

    Team training should reflect the increasing complexity of decision-making environments. Guidelines for scenario-based training were adopted for a distributed setting and tested in a pilot training session with a distributed team in the offshore oil industry. Participants valued the scenario as chall

  7. Preparing to Prevent: Conflict-Related Sexual Violence Mitigation Scenario-Based Training

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-11-26

    This document contains training scenarios to help military units address sexual violence in the context of peacekeeping missions. It begins with...overviews of conflict-related sexual violence and scenario-based training, then provides situational information to be used as background for the eight

  8. Transportation energy scenario analysis technical report No. 1: examination of four existing scenarios. [Projections for 1985, 1995, 2010, and 2025

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bernard, M. J.; LaBelle, S. J.; Millar, M.; Walbridge, E. W.

    1978-03-01

    This project aims to provide the DOE Division of Transportation Energy Conservation (TEC) with a long-range forecasting framework in which to evaluate potential changes to the U.S. Transportation system. This initial report examines four existing, but diverse, 50-year scenarios of the future. It describes the scenarios and summarizes the changes in the major transportation system variables that would occur through the year 2025 in each scenario. Projections of variables of interest to TEC are explored, including passenger or ton miles and energy consumption. Each is reported for 1985, 1995, 2010, and 2025 under four scenarios: success, moderate economic growth, energy crisis, and transformation. The philosophy of this project is that the transportation system must support future lifestyles; by examining potential future lifestyles the required transportation system changes can be deduced. The project: (a) develops a set of scenarios that span likely futures; (b) describes the lifestyles in each scenario in order; (c) determines the characteristics of the transportation system supporting those lifestyles; (d) indicates transportation technologies and policies necessary in that system; and (e) derives the energy characteristics of that system. The implications of the four existing scenarios are examined with emphasis on current TEC electric-vehicle development. This preliminary investigation will be followed by detailed-scenario building (modifying existing scenarios or developing new ones) and generation of lifestyles and transportation system demands under each of the scenarios. This work will be reported in October 1978.

  9. Scenario analysis of the impacts of forest management and climate change on the European forest sector carbon budget

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Karjalainen, T.; Pusinen, A.; Liski, J.; Nabuurs, G.J.; Eggers, T.; Lapveteläinen, T.; Kaipainen, T.

    2003-01-01

    Analysis of the impacts of forest management and climate change on the European forest sector carbon budget between 1990 and 2050 are presented in this article. Forest inventory based carbon budgeting with large scale scenario modelling was used. Altogether 27 countries and 128.5 million hectare of

  10. The Development Framework for Scenario-based Goal Modeling%基于剧本的目标模型开发框架

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    林涛; 应晶

    2000-01-01

    Beginning with recent issues in requirement engineering,this paper proposes a development framework for scenario-based goal modeling(SBGMF),which integrates with scenario management to goal modeling successfully, and supports elaboration, analysis, validation and corporation, and stimulates the mechanism of requirement tracing and component reusing. The paper addresses the structure and functions of the framework SBGMF.

  11. Accessing technical data bases using STDS: A collection of scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hardgrave, W. T.

    1975-01-01

    A line by line description is given of sessions using the set-theoretic data system (STDS) to interact with technical data bases. The data bases contain data from actual applications at NASA Langley Research Center. The report is meant to be a tutorial document that accompanies set processing in a network environment.

  12. Forest Policy Scenario Analysis: Sensitivity of Songbird Community to Changes in Forest Cover Amount and Configuration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert S. Rempel

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available Changes in mature forest cover amount, composition, and configuration can be of significant consequence to wildlife populations. The response of wildlife to forest patterns is of concern to forest managers because it lies at the heart of such competing approaches to forest planning as aggregated vs. dispersed harvest block layouts. In this study, we developed a species assessment framework to evaluate the outcomes of forest management scenarios on biodiversity conservation objectives. Scenarios were assessed in the context of a broad range of forest structures and patterns that would be expected to occur under natural disturbance and succession processes. Spatial habitat models were used to predict the effects of varying degrees of mature forest cover amount, composition, and configuration on habitat occupancy for a set of 13 focal songbird species. We used a spatially explicit harvest scheduling program to model forest management options and simulate future forest conditions resulting from alternative forest management scenarios, and used a process-based fire-simulation model to simulate future forest conditions resulting from natural wildfire disturbance. Spatial pattern signatures were derived for both habitat occupancy and forest conditions, and these were placed in the context of the simulated range of natural variation. Strategic policy analyses were set in the context of current Ontario forest management policies. This included use of sequential time-restricted harvest blocks (created for Woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus conservation and delayed harvest areas (created for American marten (Martes americana atrata conservation. This approach increased the realism of the analysis, but reduced the generality of interpretations. We found that forest management options that create linear strips of old forest deviate the most from simulated natural patterns, and had the greatest negative effects on habitat occupancy, whereas policy options

  13. Scenario design and basic analysis of the National Data Centre Preparedness Exercise 2013

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ross, Ole; Ceranna, Lars; Hartmann, Gernot; Gestermann, Nicolai; Bönneman, Christian

    2014-05-01

    The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) prohibits all kinds of nuclear explosions. For the detection of treaty violations the International Monitoring System (IMS) operates stations observing seismic, hydroacoustic, and infrasound signals as well as radioisotopes in the atmosphere. While the IMS data is collected, processed and technically analyzed in the International Data Center (IDC) of the CTBT-Organization, National Data Centers (NDC) provide interpretation and advice to their government concerning suspicious detections occurring in IMS data. NDC Preparedness Exercises (NPE) are regularly performed dealing with fictitious treaty violations to practice the combined analysis of CTBT verification technologies and for the mutual exchange of information between NDC and also with the IDC. The NPE2010 and NPE2012 trigger scenarios were based on selected seismic events from the Reviewed Event Bulletin (REB) serving as starting point for fictitious Radionuclide dispersion. The main task was the identification of the original REB event and the discrimination between earthquakes and explosions as source. The scenario design of NPE2013 differs from those of previous NPEs. The waveform event selection is not constrained to events in the REB. The exercise trigger is a combination of a tempo-spatial indication pointing to a certain waveform event and simulated radionuclide concentrations generated by forward Atmospheric Transport Modelling based on a fictitious release. For the waveform event the date (4 Sept. 2013) is given and the region is communicated in a map showing the fictitious state of "Frisia" at the Coast of the North Sea in Central Europe. The synthetic radionuclide detections start in Vienna (8 Sept, I-131) and Schauinsland (11 Sept, Xe-133) with rather low activity concentrations and are most prominent in Stockholm and Spitsbergen mid of September 2013. Smaller concentrations in Asia follow later on. The potential connection between the waveform and

  14. Seismic response analysis of Wolsung NPP structure and equipment subjected to scenario earthquakes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Choi, In Kil; Ahn, Seong Moon; Choun, Young Sun; Seo, Jeong Moon

    2005-03-15

    The standard response spectrum proposed by US NRC has been used as a design earthquake for the design of Korean nuclear power plant structures. However, it does not reflect the characteristic of seismological and geological of Korea. In this study, the seismic response analysis of Wolsung NPP structure and equipment were performed. Three types of input motions, artificial time histories that envelop the US NRC Regulatory Guide 1.60 spectrum and the probability based scenario earthquake spectra developed for the Korean NPP site and a typical near-fault earthquake recorded at thirty sites, were used as input motions. The acceleration, displacement and shear force responses of Wolsung containment structure due to the design earthquake were larger than those due to the other input earthquakes. But, considering displacement response increases abruptly as Wolsung NPP structure does nonlinear behavior, the reassessment of the seismic safety margin based on the displacement is necessary if the structure does nonlinear behavior; although it has adequate the seismic safety margin within elastic limit. Among the main safety-related devices, electrical cabinet and pump showed the large responses on the scenario earthquake which has the high frequency characteristic. This has great effects of the seismic capacity of the main devices installed inside of the building. This means that the design earthquake is not so conservative for the safety of the safety related nuclear power plant equipments.

  15. Mannich Bases: An Important Pharmacophore in Present Scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suman Bala

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Mannich bases are the end products of Mannich reaction and are known as beta-amino ketone carrying compounds. Mannich reaction is a carbon-carbon bond forming nucleophilic addition reaction and is a key step in synthesis of a wide variety of natural products, pharmaceuticals, and so forth. Mannich reaction is important for the construction of nitrogen containing compounds. There is a number of aminoalkyl chain bearing Mannich bases like fluoxetine, atropine, ethacrynic acid, trihexyphenidyl, and so forth with high curative value. The literature studies enlighten the fact that Mannich bases are very reactive and recognized to possess potent diverse activities like anti-inflammatory, anticancer, antifilarial, antibacterial, antifungal, anticonvulsant, anthelmintic, antitubercular, analgesic, anti-HIV, antimalarial, antipsychotic, antiviral activities and so forth. The biological activity of Mannich bases is mainly attributed to α, β-unsaturated ketone which can be generated by deamination of hydrogen atom of the amine group.

  16. TRIDEC Cloud - a Web-based Platform for Tsunami Early Warning tested with NEAMWave14 Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hammitzsch, Martin; Spazier, Johannes; Reißland, Sven; Necmioglu, Ocal; Comoglu, Mustafa; Ozer Sozdinler, Ceren; Carrilho, Fernando; Wächter, Joachim

    2015-04-01

    the European scale. The TRIDEC Cloud has not been involved officially in Part B of the NEAMWave14 scenarios. However, the scenarios have been used by GFZ, KOERI, and IPMA for testing in exercise runs on October 27-28, 2014. Additionally, the Greek NEAMWave14 scenario has been tested in an exercise run by GFZ only on October 29, 2014 (see ICG/NEAMTWS-XI/13). The exercise runs demonstrated that operators in warning centres and stakeholders of other involved parties just need a standard web browser to access a full-fledged TEWS. The integration of GPU accelerated tsunami simulation computations have been an integral part to foster early warning with on-demand tsunami predictions based on actual source parameters. Thus tsunami travel times, estimated times of arrival and estimated wave heights are available immediately for visualization and for further analysis and processing. The generation of warning messages is based on internationally agreed message structures and includes static and dynamic information based on earthquake information, instant computations of tsunami simulations, and actual measurements. Generated messages are served for review, modification, and addressing in one simple form for dissemination via Cloud Messages, Shared Maps, e-mail, FTP/GTS, SMS, and FAX. Cloud Messages and Shared Maps are complementary channels and integrate interactive event and simulation data. Thus recipients are enabled to interact dynamically with a map and diagrams beyond traditional text information.

  17. Analysis of the thermomechanical behavior of the IFMIF bayonet target assembly under design loading scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bernardi, D., E-mail: davide.bernardi@enea.it [ENEA Brasimone, Camugnano, BO (Italy); Arena, P.; Bongiovì, G.; Di Maio, P.A. [Dipartimento di Energia, Ingegneria dell’Informazione e Modelli Matematici, Università di Palermo, Viale delle Scienze, Palermo (Italy); Frisoni, M. [ENEA Bologna, Via Martiri di Monte Sole 4, Bologna (Italy); Miccichè, G.; Serra, M. [ENEA Brasimone, Camugnano, BO (Italy)

    2015-10-15

    In the framework of the IFMIF Engineering Validation and Engineering Design Activities (IFMIF/EVEDA) phase, ENEA is responsible for the design of the European concept of the IFMIF lithium target system which foresees the possibility to periodically replace only the most irradiated and thus critical component (i.e., the backplate) while continuing to operate the rest of the target for a longer period (the so-called bayonet backplate concept). In this work, the results of the steady state thermomechanical analysis of the IFMIF bayonet target assembly under two different design loading scenarios (a “hot” scenario and a “cold” scenario) are briefly reported highlighting the relevant indications obtained with respect to the fulfillment of the design requirements. In particular, the analyses have shown that in the hot scenario the temperatures reached in the target assembly are within the material acceptable limits while in the cold scenario transition below the ductile to brittle transition temperature (DBTT) cannot be excluded. Moreover, results indicate that the contact between backplate and high flux test module is avoided and that the overall structural integrity of the system is assured in both scenarios. However, stress linearization analysis reveals that ITER Structural Design Criteria for In-vessel Components (SDC-IC) design rules are not always met along the selected paths at backplate middle plane section in the hot scenario, thus suggesting the need of a revision of the backplate design or a change of the operating conditions.

  18. Scenario-Based Systems Engineering Application to Mine Warfare

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-12-01

    collects and provides reporting of historical O&S costs data for the Navy and Marine Corps weapon systems. Available cost information was...Hunting System as well as the legacy MCM 1 and CH-53E. The Measures of Effectiveness (MOE) utilized were Area Clearance Rate Sustained and...process was utilized to analyze input variables for relationships to the MOEs and compare resulting MOEs from the various configurations. A cost analysis

  19. Six scenarios of exploiting an ontology based, mobilized learning environment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kismihók, G.; Szabó, I.; Vas, R.

    2012-01-01

    In this article, six different exploitation possibilities of an educational ontology based, mobilized learning management system are presented. The focal point of this system is the educational ontology model. The first version of this educational ontology model serves as a foundation for curriculum

  20. Scenario-based design space exploration of MPSoCs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Stralen, P.; Pimentel, A.

    2010-01-01

    Early design space exploration (DSE) is a key ingredient in system-level design of MPSoC-based embedded systems. The state of the art in this field typically still explores systems under a single, fixed application workload. In reality, however, the applications are concurrently executing and conten

  1. Product design pattern based on big data-driven scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Conggang Yu

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available This article discusses about new product design patterns in the big data era, gives designer a new rational thinking way, and is a new way to understand the design of the product. Based on the key criteria of the product design process, category, element, and product are used to input the data, which comprises concrete data and abstract data as an enlargement of the criteria of product design process for the establishment of a big data-driven product design pattern’s model. Moreover, an experiment and a product design case are conducted to verify the feasibility of the new pattern. Ultimately, we will conclude that the data-driven product design has two patterns: one is the concrete data supporting the product design, namely “product–data–product” pattern, and the second is based on the value of the abstract data for product design, namely “data–product–data” pattern. Through the data, users are involving themselves in the design development process. Data and product form a huge network, and data plays a role of connection or node. So the essence of the design is to find a new connection based on element, and to find a new node based on category.

  2. Strategies for cost-effective carbon reductions: A sensitivity analysis of alternative scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gumerman, Etan; Koomey, Jonathan G.; Brown, Marilyn

    2001-07-11

    Analyses of alternative futures often present results for a limited set of scenarios, with little if any sensitivity analysis to identify the factors affecting the scenario results. This approach creates an artificial impression of certainty associated with the scenarios considered, and inhibits understanding of the underlying forces. This paper summarizes the economic and carbon savings sensitivity analysis completed for the Scenarios for a Clean Energy Future study (IWG, 2000). Its 19 sensitivity cases provide insight into the costs and carbon-reduction impacts of a carbon permit trading system, demand-side efficiency programs, and supply-side policies. Impacts under different natural gas and oil price trajectories are also examined. The results provide compelling evidence that policy opportunities exist to reduce carbon emissions and save society money.

  3. SCENARIO AND TARGET SIMULATION FOR A GROUND BASED MULTIFUNCTION PHASED ARRAY RADAR

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2008-01-01

    This paper describes a scenario and target simulation which operates in non real-time to provide full closed-loop operation of the ground based multifunction phased array radar simulation system in support of ballistic missile defence experiments against countermeasure.By simulating the target scattering signature and dynamical signature,this scenario and target simulation provide re- alistic scenario source to evaluate the system performance of multifunction phased array radar,and the key algorithms verification and validation such as target tracking,multi-target imaging and target recognition.

  4. vNet Zero Energy for Radio Base Stations- Balearic Scenario

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sabater, Pere; Mihovska, Albena Dimitrova; Pol, Andreu Moia;

    2016-01-01

    based on coal and fossil fuels which is not an environmentally sustainable scenario. The aim of this study is to identify the processes that would reduce the energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions, designing a target scenario featuring "zero CO2 emissions" and "100% renewable energies" in RBS....... The energy costs, CO2 emissions and data traffic data used for the study are generated by a sample of RBS from the Balearic Islands. The results are shown in terms of energy performance for a normal and net zero emissions scenarios....

  5. A Scenario-Based Technique for Developing SOA Technical Governance

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-06-01

    18  Figure 5:  CBDi-SAE SOA Governance Framework 19  Figure 6:  IBM SOA Governance and Management Method 20  Figure 7:  ITIL Core Framework 21...organizations, even if they are not SOA specific, such as the Information Technol- ogy Infrastructure Library ( ITIL ) [10] These frameworks can be very...based on a standard or a widely recommended approach such as ITIL , one custom-built for the organization, or a hybrid of all of the preceding. For

  6. Biomass Scenario Model: BETO Analysis Platform Peer Review; NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bush, B.

    2015-03-23

    The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a unique, carefully validated, state-of-the-art fourth-generation model of the domestic bioenergy supply chain which explicitly focuses on policy issues and their potential side effects. It integrates resource availability, behavior, policy, and physical, technological, and economic constraints. The BSM uses system-dynamics simulation to model dynamic interactions across the supply chain; it tracks the deployment of biofuels given technological development and the reaction of the investment community to those technologies in the context of land availability, the competing oil market, consumer demand for biofuels, and government policies over time. It places a strong emphasis on the behavior and decision-making of various economic agents. The model treats the major infrastructure-compatible fuels. Scenario analysis based on the BSM shows that the biofuels industry tends not to rapidly thrive without significant external actions in the early years of its evolution. An initial focus for jumpstarting the industry typically has strongest results in the BSM in areas where effects of intervention have been identified to be multiplicative. In general, we find that policies which are coordinated across the whole supply chain have significant impact in fostering the growth of the biofuels industry and that the production of tens of billions of gallons of biofuels may occur under sufficiently favorable conditions.

  7. Watershed scale environmental sustainability analysis of biofuel production in changing land use and climate scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    RAJ, C.; Chaubey, I.; Cherkauer, K. A.; Brouder, S. M.; Volenec, J. J.

    2013-12-01

    One of the grand challenges in meeting the US biofuel goal is producing large quantities of cellulosic biofeedstock materials for the production of biofuels in an environmentally sustainable and economically viable manner. The possible land use and land management practice changes induce concerns over the environmental impacts of these bioenergy crop production scenarios both in terms of water availability and water quality, and these impacts may be exacerbated by climate variability and change. This study aims to evaluate environmental sustainability of various plausible land and crop management scenarios for biofuel production under changing climate scenarios for a Midwest US watershed. The study considers twelve environmental sustainability indicators related hydrology and water quality with thirteen plausible biofuels scenarios in the watershed under nine climate change scenarios. The land use change scenarios for evaluation includes, (1) bioenergy crops in highly erodible soils (3) bioenergy crops in low row crop productive fields (marginal lands); (3) bioenergy crops in pasture and range land use areas and (4) combinations of these scenarios. Future climate data bias corrected and downscaled to daily values from the World Climate Research Programme's (WCRP's) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) multi-model dataset were used in this study. The distributed hydrological model SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) was used to simulate bioenergy crops growth, hydrology and water quality. The watershed scale sustainability analysis was done in Wildcat Creek basin, which is located in North-Central Indiana, USA.

  8. Analysis of Multipath Routing in Random Ad Hoc Networks Scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Indrani Das

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available In this study, we have proposed a multipath routing protocol for Mobile Ad Hoc Networks. Multipath routing overcomes various problems that occur in data delivery through a single path. The proposed protocol selects multiple neighbor nodes of source node to establish multiple paths towards destination. These nodes are selected based on their minimum remaining distance from destination. We have computed the length of various paths and average hops count for different node density in the network. We have considered only three paths for our evaluation. The results show that path-2 gives better results in term of hop count and path length among three paths.

  9. Scenario Simulation-Based Assessment of Trip Difficulty for Urban Residents under Rainstorm Waterlogging

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yingyue Sun

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available In this study, an experiment was performed to assess the trip difficulty for urban residents of different age groups walking in various depths of water, and the data were corroborated with the real urban rainstorm waterlogging scenarios in downtown (Daoli district Ha-Erbin (China. Mathematical models of urban rainstorm waterlogging were constructed using scenario simulation methods, aided by the GIS spatial analysis technology and hydrodynamic analysis of the waterway systems in the study area. Then these models were used to evaluate the impact of waterlogging on the safety of residents walking in the affected area. Results are summarized as: (1 for an urban rainstorm waterlogging scenario reoccurring once every 10 years, three grid regions would have waterlogging above 0.5 m moving at a velocity of 1.5 m/s. Under this scenario, waterlogging would accumulate on traffic roads only in small areas, affecting the safety and mobility of residents walking in the neighborhood; (2 for an urban rainstorm waterlogging scenario reoccurring once every 20 years, 13 grids experienced the same waterlogging situation affecting a larger area of the city; (3 for an urban rainstorm waterlogging scenario reoccurring once every 50 years, 86 grid regions were affected (waterlogging above 0.5 m moving at 1.5 m/s, and those areas would become impassable for residents.

  10. Topical report on release scenario analysis of long-term management of high-level defense waste at the Hanford Site

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wallace, R.W.; Landstrom, D.K.; Blair, S.C.; Howes, B.W.; Robkin, M.A.; Benson, G.L.; Reisenauer, A.E.; Walters, W.H.; Zimmerman, M.G.

    1980-11-01

    Potential release scenarios for the defense high-level waste (HLW) on the Hanford Site are presented. Presented in this report are the three components necessary for evaluating the various alternatives under consideration for long-term management of Hanford defense HLW: identification of scenarios and events which might directly or indirectly disrupt radionuclide containment barriers; geotransport calculations of waste migration through the site media; and consequence (dose) analyses based on groundwater and air pathways calculations. The scenarios described in this report provide the necessary parameters for radionuclide transport and consequence analysis. Scenarios are categorized as either bounding or nonbounding. Bounding scenarios consider worst case or what if situations where an actual and significant release of waste material to the environment would happen if the scenario were to occur. Bounding scenarios include both near-term and long-term scenarios. Near-term scenarios are events which occur at 100 years from 1990. Long term scenarios are potential events considered to occur at 1000 and 10,000 years from 1990. Nonbounding scenarios consider events which result in insignificant releases or no release at all to the environment. Three release mechanisms are described in this report: (1) direct exposure of waste to the biosphere by a defined sequence of events (scenario) such as human intrusion by drilling; (2) radionuclides contacting an unconfined aquifer through downward percolation of groundwater or a rising water table; and (3) cataclysmic or explosive release of radionuclides by such mechanisms as meteorite impact, fire and explosion, criticality, or seismic events. Scenarios in this report present ways in which these release mechanisms could occur at a waste management facility. The scenarios are applied to the two in-tank waste management alternatives: in-situ disposal and continued present action.

  11. TRANSPORTATION BOT SCHEMES FOR PUBLIC AND PRIVATE SECTOR FINANCING SCENARIO ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chien-Hung WEI

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available Transportation Build-Operate-Transfer financing projects have larger payment risks and failure possibilities than other financing projects, and these factors are essential to financing scenarios. The changes of financing scenarios not only affect private sectors' financing process but the conflict between private sectors and banks. This study broadly reviews relevant factors affecting BOT financing strategies, interviews relevant experts and then uses scenario analysis to design a questionnaire to find out the most important factors affecting BOT financing. The findings of this study are four major factors affecting public and private financing scenarios. In this paper, we also propose some suggestions as possible complements to public and private sector financing strategies.

  12. Evolutionary Game Analysis of Unexpected Incidents Involving Mass Participation Based Scenario Inference%基于情景推演的群体性突发事件演化博弈分析

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王循庆; 李勇建; 孙华丽

    2015-01-01

    Unexpected incidents involving mass participation have impacted China′s social harmony and public safety.Aiming at the benefit game problem of different social groups in unexpected incidents involving mass participation, we study the strategy se-lection process of two types of social groups, i.e.the social powerful group and social vulnerable group, based on evolution game theory.Then this paper establishes the evolutionary game model of unexpected incidents involving mass participation under the scenario with or without the higher levels of government′s punishment mechanism, and analyzes the behavior strategy stability of the two heterogeneous groups.Finally, this paper introduces evolutionary status of unexpected incidents involving mass participa-tion for scenario inference simulations, the results show that:Under the scenario without the higher government′s punishment mechanism,①if the costs and credit losses by taking tough poli-cies are higher than the benefits and punishment costs on the vulnerable groups who adopt the struggle strategy.Moreover the benefits of the social vulnerable groups by taking the struggle strategy are less than the costs, then the two heterogeneous groups will ultimately choose cooperative strategies;②if the benefits by taking tough policies of the social powerful group exceed the sum of the action costs, credit losses and compensation costs, meanwhile the benefits of the social vulnerable group by taking the struggle strategy exceed the sum of the costs including the action, compensation and penalty, then the two heterogeneous groups will select the tough struggle strategy;③the strategy evolutionary velocities of the two heterogeneous groups are directly related with the initial proportion of policies selections.Given the same tactics proportion, the speed of stable strategy evolutionary of the social vulnerable group is faster than that of the powerful group. Under the scenario with the higher government′s punishment

  13. Scenario Analysis of Urban Residential Land Use Utility Based on Multi-agents' Spatial Decision%基于多主体行为决策的城市居住用地利用效用情景分析

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    单玉红; 朱欣焰

    2011-01-01

    .Furthermore,urban government agents will adjust the residential land developing priority sequence based on the comprehensive consideration of the social and ecological land use utility.So by adjusting the land use and environmental protection policies of urban government agent the model sets three scenarios which respectively represent the compact,relaxed and controlled modes of urban residential space extension and gets the residential developing priority function in every scenario.By the function,the model can get the preview of the evolution of residential space in every set scenario and provide land use planning policy guidance for urban government in advance. Taking Wuchang and Hongshan districts in Wuhan as the experimental areas,the paper compares the land use structure and land use efficiency in the process of the residential space evolution from 1998 to 2008 among the three scenarios and the actual situation respectively.The comparison indicates that land new development holds a lager proportion in the evolution process of the experimental residential space from 1998 to 2008,that is to say the land redevelopment level of old urban in experimental districts is not enough.In fact the government of Wuhan city had focused on residential new development of the suburban fringe areas before 2004,but the emphasis has been transferred to the old city transformation and land redevelopment after 2004,the point verifies the validity of the model to a certain degree. Compared with the model's simulating results under different scenarios,the factual residential space evolution always has intersections with the three simulating results respectively,which means urban government may adjust its land use policy,natural environmental protection policy and so on under the influence of macroscopic environment in different periods.This is just one of the characteristics of Chinese real estate market.Excepting this,from the model simulating results,urban residents have attached increasing importance to

  14. Scenario-based radiation therapy margins for patient setup, organ motion, and particle range uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bokrantz, Rasmus; Fredriksson, Albin

    2017-02-01

    This work extends and validates the scenario-based generalization of margins presented in Fredriksson and Bokrantz (2016 Phys. Med. Biol. 61 2067–82). Scenario-based margins are, in their original form, a method for robust planning under setup uncertainty where the sum of a plan evaluation criterion over a set of scenarios is optimized. The voxelwise penalties in the summands are weighted by a distribution of coefficients defined such that the method is mathematically equivalent to the use of conventional geometric margins if the scenario doses are calculated using the static dose cloud approximation. The purpose of this work is to extend scenario-based margins to general types of geometric uncertainty and to validate their use on clinical cases. Specifically, we outline how to incorporate density heterogeneity in the calculation of coefficients and demonstrate the extended method’s ability to safeguard against setup errors, organ motion, and range shifts (and combinations thereof). For a water phantom with a high-density slab partly covering the target, the extended form of scenario-based margins method led to improved target coverage robustness compared to the original method. At most minor differences in robustness were, however, observed between the extended and original method for a prostate and two lung patients, all treated with intensity-modulated proton therapy, yielding evidence that the calculation of weighting coefficients is generally insensitive to tissue heterogeneities. The scenario-based margins were, furthermore, verified to provide a comparable level of robustness to expected value and worst case optimization while circumventing some known shortcomings of these methods.

  15. Quantifying uncertainty in urban flooding analysis caused by the combined effect of climate and land use change scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I.-W. Jung

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available How will the combined impacts of land use change and climate change influence changes in urban flood frequency and what is the main uncertainty source of the results? We attempt to answer to these questions in two catchments with different degrees of urbanization, the Fanno catchment with 84% urban land use and the Johnson catchment with 36% urban land use, both located in the Pacific Northwest of the US. Five uncertainty sources – general circulation model (GCM structures, future greenhouse gas (GHG emission scenarios, land use change scenarios, natural variability, and hydrologic model parameters – are considered to compare the relative source of uncertainty in flood frequency projections. Two land use change scenarios conservation and development, representing possible future land use changes are used for analysis. Results show the highest increase in flood frequency under the combination of medium high GHG emission (A1B and development scenarios, and the lowest increase under the combination of low GHG emission (B1 and conservation scenarios. Although the combined impact is more significant to flood frequency change than individual scenarios, it does not linearly increase flood frequency. Changes in flood frequency are more sensitive to climate change than land use change in the two catchments for 2050s (2040–2069. Shorter term flood frequency change, 2 and 5 year floods, is highly affected by GCM structure, while longer term flood frequency change above 25 year floods is dominated by natural variability. Projected flood frequency changes more significantly in Johnson creek than Fanno creek. This result indicates that, under expected climate change conditions, an adaptive urban planning based on the conservation scenario could be more effective in less developed Johnson catchment than in the already developed Fanno catchment.

  16. Simulation of Reclaimed-Water Injection and Pumping Scenarios and Particle-Tracking Analysis near Mount Pleasant, South Carolina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petkewich, Matthew D.; Campbell, Bruce G.

    2009-01-01

    The effect of injecting reclaimed water into the Middendorf aquifer beneath Mount Pleasant, South Carolina, was simulated using a groundwater-flow model of the Coastal Plain Physiographic Province of South Carolina and parts of Georgia and North Carolina. Reclaimed water, also known as recycled water, is wastewater or stormwater that has been treated to an appropriate level so that the water can be reused. The scenarios were simulated to evaluate potential changes in groundwater flow and groundwater-level conditions caused by injecting reclaimed water into the Middendorf aquifer. Simulations included a Base Case and two injection scenarios. Maximum pumping rates were simulated as 6.65, 8.50, and 10.5 million gallons per day for the Base Case, Scenario 1, and Scenario 2, respectively. The Base Case simulation represents a non-injection estimate of the year 2050 groundwater levels for comparison purposes for the two injection scenarios. For Scenarios 1 and 2, the simulated injection of reclaimed water at 3 million gallons per day begins in 2012 and continues through 2050. The flow paths and time of travel for the injected reclaimed water were simulated using particle-tracking analysis. The simulations indicated a general decline of groundwater altitudes in the Middendorf aquifer in the Mount Pleasant, South Carolina, area between 2004 and 2050 for the Base Case and two injection scenarios. For the Base Case, groundwater altitudes generally declined about 90 feet from the 2004 groundwater levels. For Scenarios 1 and 2, although groundwater altitudes initially increased in the Mount Pleasant area because of the simulated injection, these higher groundwater levels declined as Mount Pleasant Waterworks pumping increased over time. When compared to the Base Case simulation, 2050 groundwater altitudes for Scenario 1 are between 15 feet lower to 23 feet higher for production wells, between 41 and 77 feet higher for the injection wells, and between 9 and 23 feet higher for

  17. Worst-case Throughput Analysis for Parametric Rate and Parametric Actor Execution Time Scenario-Aware Dataflow Graphs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mladen Skelin

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Scenario-aware dataflow (SADF is a prominent tool for modeling and analysis of dynamic embedded dataflow applications. In SADF the application is represented as a finite collection of synchronous dataflow (SDF graphs, each of which represents one possible application behaviour or scenario. A finite state machine (FSM specifies the possible orders of scenario occurrences. The SADF model renders the tightest possible performance guarantees, but is limited by its finiteness. This means that from a practical point of view, it can only handle dynamic dataflow applications that are characterized by a reasonably sized set of possible behaviours or scenarios. In this paper we remove this limitation for a class of SADF graphs by means of SADF model parametrization in terms of graph port rates and actor execution times. First, we formally define the semantics of the model relevant for throughput analysis based on (max,+ linear system theory and (max,+ automata. Second, by generalizing some of the existing results, we give the algorithms for worst-case throughput analysis of parametric rate and parametric actor execution time acyclic SADF graphs with a fully connected, possibly infinite state transition system. Third, we demonstrate our approach on a few realistic applications from digital signal processing (DSP domain mapped onto an embedded multi-processor architecture.

  18. Scenario and multiple criteria decision analysis for energy and environmental security of military and industrial installations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karvetski, Christopher W; Lambert, James H; Linkov, Igor

    2011-04-01

    Military and industrial facilities need secure and reliable power generation. Grid outages can result in cascading infrastructure failures as well as security breaches and should be avoided. Adding redundancy and increasing reliability can require additional environmental, financial, logistical, and other considerations and resources. Uncertain scenarios consisting of emergent environmental conditions, regulatory changes, growth of regional energy demands, and other concerns result in further complications. Decisions on selecting energy alternatives are made on an ad hoc basis. The present work integrates scenario analysis and multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA) to identify combinations of impactful emergent conditions and to perform a preliminary benefits analysis of energy and environmental security investments for industrial and military installations. Application of a traditional MCDA approach would require significant stakeholder elicitations under multiple uncertain scenarios. The approach proposed in this study develops and iteratively adjusts a scoring function for investment alternatives to find the scenarios with the most significant impacts on installation security. A robust prioritization of investment alternatives can be achieved by integrating stakeholder preferences and focusing modeling and decision-analytical tools on a few key emergent conditions and scenarios. The approach is described and demonstrated for a campus of several dozen interconnected industrial buildings within a major installation.

  19. Real-time determination of the worst tsunami scenario based on Earthquake Early Warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Furuya, Takashi; Koshimura, Shunichi; Hino, Ryota; Ohta, Yusaku; Inoue, Takuya

    2016-04-01

    In recent years, real-time tsunami inundation forecasting has been developed with the advances of dense seismic monitoring, GPS Earth observation, offshore tsunami observation networks, and high-performance computing infrastructure (Koshimura et al., 2014). Several uncertainties are involved in tsunami inundation modeling and it is believed that tsunami generation model is one of the great uncertain sources. Uncertain tsunami source model has risk to underestimate tsunami height, extent of inundation zone, and damage. Tsunami source inversion using observed seismic, geodetic and tsunami data is the most effective to avoid underestimation of tsunami, but needs to expect more time to acquire the observed data and this limitation makes difficult to terminate real-time tsunami inundation forecasting within sufficient time. Not waiting for the precise tsunami observation information, but from disaster management point of view, we aim to determine the worst tsunami source scenario, for the use of real-time tsunami inundation forecasting and mapping, using the seismic information of Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) that can be obtained immediately after the event triggered. After an earthquake occurs, JMA's EEW estimates magnitude and hypocenter. With the constraints of earthquake magnitude, hypocenter and scaling law, we determine possible multi tsunami source scenarios and start searching the worst one by the superposition of pre-computed tsunami Green's functions, i.e. time series of tsunami height at offshore points corresponding to 2-dimensional Gaussian unit source, e.g. Tsushima et al., 2014. Scenario analysis of our method consists of following 2 steps. (1) Searching the worst scenario range by calculating 90 scenarios with various strike and fault-position. From maximum tsunami height of 90 scenarios, we determine a narrower strike range which causes high tsunami height in the area of concern. (2) Calculating 900 scenarios that have different strike, dip, length

  20. Scenario based approach to structural damage detection and its value in a risk and reliability perspective

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hovgaard, Mads Knude; Hansen, Jannick Balleby; Brincker, Rune

    2013-01-01

    A scenario- and vibration based structural damage detection method is demonstrated though simulation. The method is Finite Element (FE) based. The value of the monitoring is calculated using structural reliability theory. A high cycle fatigue crack propagation model is assumed as the damage mecha...

  1. Analysis of China' s Primary Energy Demand Scenarios Based on the CDECGE Model%基于CDECGE模型的中国能源需求情景分析

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    毕清华; 范英; 蔡圣华; 夏炎

    2013-01-01

    从我国未来经济社会发展目标出发,根据不同的政策目标设定了3种经济发展情景:基准情景、强化低碳情景和粗放型情景.分析了3种情景下我国未来的一次能源需求量、能源消费结构及CO2排放趋势,为把握我国未来的能源安全形势、控制温室气体排放提供了有效的政策分析工具.研究方法是在Monash模型的基础上构造的我国能源经济动态可计算一般均衡模型(CDECGE).结果显示,按照现在的经济增长方式和增长率预期,如果没有额外的政策措施,2020年之前我国能源需求仍将快速增长,但在适度的低碳政策引导下,我国2020年的能源需求将控制在45.52亿t标煤,CO2排放强度将达到1.635 t/万元,相对2005年下降45%.碳税作为一种经济减排政策,会有效的降低CO2排放,减少化石能源的需求,使经济向低碳社会转型,从而实现2020年CO2排放强度降低的减排目标.因此,为减缓能源需求量的快速增长趋势,实现减排目标,可以从改善产业结构、实行碳税政策等方面采取措施,优化能源结构,实现经济结构转型,从而保障能源供应安全和控制温室气体排放.%In response to China' s future economic and social development goals, this paper explored three economic development scenarios; the baseline scenario, the enhanced, low-carbon scenario, and the extensive economic growth scenario. The paper analysed China' s primary energy demand, CO2 emissions trends, and energy consumption structure under different policies, and the model can be an effective policy tool for analysing China' s future energy security situation and controlling China' s greenhouse gas emissions. A dynamic energy computable general equilibrium ( CGE) model, which was based on the Monash model, was used to evaluate China' s energy economy (CDECGE Model) . The investigation results show that due to the current economic growth patterns and the economic growth rate, without

  2. SAFRR AND Physics-Based Scenarios: The Power of Scientifically Credible Stories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cox, D. A.; Jones, L.

    2015-12-01

    USGS's SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Project and its predecessor, the Multi Hazards Demonstration Project, uses the latest earth science to develop scenarios so that communities can improve disaster resilience. SAFRR has created detailed physics-based natural-disaster scenarios of a M7.8 San Andreas earthquake in southern California (ShakeOut), atmospheric-river storms rivaling the Great California Flood of 1862 (ARkStorm), a Tohoku-sized earthquake and tsunami in the eastern Aleutians (SAFRR Tsunami), and now a M7.05 quake on the Hayward Fault in the San Francisco Bay area (HayWired), as novel ways of providing science for decision making. Each scenario is scientifically plausible, deterministic, and large enough to demand attention but not too large to be believable. The scenarios address interacting hazards, requiring involvement of multiple science disciplines and user communities. The scenarios routinely expose hitherto unknown or ignored vulnerabilities, most often in cascading effects missed when impacts are considered in isolation. They take advantage of story telling to provide decision makers with clear explanations and justifications for mitigation and preparedness actions, and have been used for national-to-local disaster response exercises and planning. Effectiveness is further leveraged by downscaling the scenarios to local levels. For example, although the ARkStorm scenario describes state-scale events and has been used that way by NASA and the Navy, SAFRR also partnered with FEMA to focus on two local areas, Ventura County in the coastal plain and the mountain setting of Lake Tahoe with downstream impacts in Reno, Sparks and Carson City. Downscaling and focused analyses increased usefulness to user communities, drawing new participants into the study. SAFRR scenarios have also motivated new research to answer questions uncovered by stakeholders, closing the circle of co-evolving disaster-science and disaster-response improvements.

  3. A multivariate copula-based framework for dealing with hazard scenarios and failure probabilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salvadori, G.; Durante, F.; De Michele, C.; Bernardi, M.; Petrella, L.

    2016-05-01

    This paper is of methodological nature, and deals with the foundations of Risk Assessment. Several international guidelines have recently recommended to select appropriate/relevant Hazard Scenarios in order to tame the consequences of (extreme) natural phenomena. In particular, the scenarios should be multivariate, i.e., they should take into account the fact that several variables, generally not independent, may be of interest. In this work, it is shown how a Hazard Scenario can be identified in terms of (i) a specific geometry and (ii) a suitable probability level. Several scenarios, as well as a Structural approach, are presented, and due comparisons are carried out. In addition, it is shown how the Hazard Scenario approach illustrated here is well suited to cope with the notion of Failure Probability, a tool traditionally used for design and risk assessment in engineering practice. All the results outlined throughout the work are based on the Copula Theory, which turns out to be a fundamental theoretical apparatus for doing multivariate risk assessment: formulas for the calculation of the probability of Hazard Scenarios in the general multidimensional case (d≥2) are derived, and worthy analytical relationships among the probabilities of occurrence of Hazard Scenarios are presented. In addition, the Extreme Value and Archimedean special cases are dealt with, relationships between dependence ordering and scenario levels are studied, and a counter-example concerning Tail Dependence is shown. Suitable indications for the practical application of the techniques outlined in the work are given, and two case studies illustrate the procedures discussed in the paper.

  4. Hawaii Clean Energy Initiative (HCEI) Scenario Analysis: Quantitative Estimates Used to Facilitate Working Group Discussions (2008-2010)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Braccio, R.; Finch, P.; Frazier, R.

    2012-03-01

    This report provides details on the Hawaii Clean Energy Initiative (HCEI) Scenario Analysis to identify potential policy options and evaluate their impact on reaching the 70% HECI goal, present possible pathways to attain the goal based on currently available technology, with an eye to initiatives under way in Hawaii, and provide an 'order-of-magnitude' cost estimate and a jump-start to action that would be adjusted with a better understanding of the technologies and market.

  5. Scenario analysis to vehicular emission reduction in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Xiurui; Fu, Liwei; Ji, Muse; Lang, Jianlei; Chen, Dongsheng; Cheng, Shuiyuan

    2016-09-01

    Motor vehicle emissions are increasingly becoming one of the important factors affecting the urban air quality in China. It is necessary and useful to policy makers to demonstrate the situation given the relevant pollutants reduction measures are taken. This paper predicted the reduction potentials of conventional pollutants (PM10, NOx, CO, HC) under different control strategies and policies in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region during 2011-2020. There are the baseline and 5 control scenarios designed, which presented the different current and future possible vehicular emissions control measures. Future population of different kinds of vehicles were predicted based on the Gompertz model, and vehicle kilometers travelled estimated as well. After that, the emissions reduction under the different scenarios during 2011-2020 could be estimated using emission factors and activity level data. The results showed that, the vehicle population in the BTH region would continue to grow up, especially in Tianjin and Hebei. Comparing the different scenarios, emission standards updating scenario would achieve a substantial reduction and keep rising up for all the pollutants, and the scenario of eliminating high-emission vehicles can reduce emissions more effectively in short-term than in long-term, especially in Beijing. Due to the constraints of existing economical and technical level, the reduction effect of promoting new energy vehicles would not be significant, especially given the consideration of their lifetime impact. The reduction effect of population regulation scenario in Beijing cannot be ignorable and would keep going up for PM10, CO and HC, excluding NOx. Under the integrated scenario considering all the control measures it would achieve the maximum reduction potential of emissions, which means to reduce emissions of PM10, NOx, CO, HC, by 56%, 59%, 48%, 52%, respectively, compared to BAU scenario for the whole BTH region in 2020.

  6. 基于CGE模型的2020年中国碳排放强度目标分析%Analysis of the Scenarios of China' s Carbon Intensity Reduction in 2020 Based on the CGE Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    刘小敏; 付加锋

    2011-01-01

    In the 21st century, mankind will face a big challenge, i.e., global climate change. Many countries have achieved agreement on this issue. In November in 2009, China announced a new carbon intensity reduction target in 2020 year to manifest the commitment of the Chinese government to dealing with climate change. The study was to unravel the key issues associated with whether China can meet the challenge and how to achieve the goal. First, we formulated a variety of scenarios to accomplish the goal of 2020' s carbon intensity based on the experience of achieving the national energy intensity targets in the Eleventh Five National plan during the last five years. Combined with the country' s other development strategies, such as the future energy structure, the ratio of various energy goals, and considering the existing major emission reduction planning for the next decade, we used the computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to develop and analyze the scenarios. To construct the SAM which is the data base of the CGE model, we replaced the value by physical data in energy sectors. This treatment could make it more realistic and manageable in energy consumption calculations. An energy CGE model with five specific energy sectors was built subsequently. Some parameters of the scenarios were summarized from the existing studies and others were specified on the assumption that policies of energy saving and emissions reduction in the Eleventh Five-Year nation' s plan will remain almost invariant in the next decade. We estimated the difficulty of achieving the carbon intensity targets in 2020 by comparing the national targets of the last five years with the targets of the year 2020, figuring out possible paths to achieve the goal of year 2020. Results show that: 1) Industrial restructuring showed limited contribution to energy saving over the last five years, and the largest part of energy saving came from decreases in energy intensity of major industrial sectors. Sectors

  7. Scenario based outdoor simulation in pre-hospital trauma care using a simple mannequin model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grier Gareth

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Introduction We describe a system of scenario-based training using simple mannequins under realistic circumstances for the training of pre-hospital care providers. Methods A simple intubatable mannequin or student volunteers are used together with a training version of the equipment used on a routine basis by the pre-hospital care team (doctor + paramedic. Training is conducted outdoors at the base location all year round. The scenarios are led by scenario facilitators who are predominantly senior physicians. Their role is to brief the training team and guide the scenario, results of patient assessment and the simulated responses to interventions and treatment. Pilots, fire-fighters and medical students are utilised in scenarios to enhance realism by taking up roles as bystanders, additional ambulance staff and police. These scenario participants are briefed and introduced to the scene in a realistic manner. After completion of the scenario, the training team would usually be invited to prepare and deliver a hospital handover as they would in a real mission. A formal structured debrief then takes place. Results This training method technique has been used for the training of all London Helicopter Emergency Medical Service (London HEMS doctors and paramedics over the last 24 months. Informal participant feedback suggests that this is a very useful teaching method, both for improving motor skills, critical decision-making, scene management and team interaction. Although formal assessment of this technique has not yet taken place we describe how this type of training is conducted in a busy operational pre-hospital trauma service. Discussion The teaching and maintenance of pre-hospital care skills is essential to an effective pre-hospital trauma care system. Simple mannequin based scenario training is feasible on a day-to-day basis and has the advantages of low cost, rapid set up and turn around. The scope of scenarios is limited only by

  8. Scenario analysis to account for photovoltaic generation uncertainty in distribution grid reconfiguration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chittur Ramaswamy, Parvathy; Deconinck, Geert; Pillai, Jayakrishnan Radhakrishna

    2013-01-01

    This paper considers hourly reconfiguration of a low voltage distribution network with the objectives of minimizing power loss and voltage deviation. The uncertainty in photovoltaic (PV) generation which in turn will affect the optimum configuration is tackled with the help of scenario analysis. ...

  9. Expanded Capabilities for the Hydrogen Financial Analysis Scenario Tool (H2FAST)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bush, Brian; Melaina, Marc; Penev, Michael

    2016-06-08

    This presentation describes how NREL expanded the capabilities for the Hydrogen Financial Analysis Scenario Tool (H2FAST) in FY16. It was presented at the U.S. Department of Energy Hydrogen and Fuel Cells Program 2016 Annual Merit Review and Peer Evaluation Meeting on June 8, 2016, in Washington, D.C.

  10. Analysis and Comparison of 24 GHz cmWave Radio Propagation in Urban and Suburban Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rodriguez, Ignacio; Portela Lopes de Almeida, Erika; Abreu, Renato Barbosa;

    2016-01-01

    path loss analysis. The paper also highlights the potential of using beam combining techniques in order to improve cell-edge coverage by 17% and 37% in the urban and suburban scenarios, respectively. Outdoor-to-indoor propagation was also investigated, finding an average penetration loss of 6.5 d...

  11. National Aviation Fuel Scenario Analysis Program (NAFSAP). Volume I. Model Description. Volume II. User Manual.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1980-03-01

    TESI CHART NATIONAI RUREAt (F ANDA[)Rt 1V4 A NATIONAL. AVIATION ~ FUEL SCENARIO.. ANALYSIS PROGRAM 49!! VOLUM I: MODEL DESCRIA~v 4<C VOLUME II: tr)ER...executes post processor which translates results of the graphics program to machine readable code used by the pen plotter) cr (depressing the carriage

  12. Global sensitivity analysis of the BSM2 dynamic influent disturbance scenario generator

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Flores-Alsina, Xavier; Gernaey, Krist V.; Jeppsson, Ulf

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents the results of a global sensitivity analysis (GSA) of a phenomenological model that generates dynamic wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) influent disturbance scenarios. This influent model is part of the Benchmark Simulation Model (BSM) family and creates realistic dry/wet weat...

  13. Scenario Analysis of Tillage, Residue and Fertilization Management Effects on Soil Organic Carbon Dynamics

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Xiao-Bin; CAI Dian-Xiong; W.B.HOOGMOED; O.OENEMA; U.D.PERDOK

    2005-01-01

    Based on data from 10-year field experiments on residue/fertilizer management in the dryland farming region of northern China, Century model was used to simulate the site-specific ecosystem dynamics through adjustment of the model's parameters, and the applicability of the model to propose soil organic carbon (SOC) management temporally and spatially, in cases such as of tillage/residue/fertilization management options, was identified via scenario analysis.Results between simulations and actual measurements were in close agreement when appropriate applications of stover,manure and inorganic fertilizer were combined. Simulations of extreme C/N ratios with added organic materials tended to underestimate the measured effects. Scenarios of changed tillage methods, residue practices and fertilization options showed potential to maintain and enhance SOC in the long run, while increasing inorganic N slowed down the SOC turnover rate but did not create a net C sink without any organic C input. The Century model simulation showed a good relationship between annual C inputs to the soil and the rate of C sequestration in the top 20 cm layer and provided quantitative estimations of changes in parameters crucial for sustainable land use and management. Conservation tillage practices for sustainable land use should be integrated with residue management and appreciable organic and inorganic fertilizer application, adapted according to the local residue resource, soil fertility and production conditions. At least 50%residue return into the soil was needed annually for maintenance of SOC balance, and manure amendment was important for enhancement of SOC in small crop-livestock systems in which crop residue land application was limited.

  14. A Systematic Approach to Explorative Scenario Analysis in Emergy Assessment with Emphasis on Resilience

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kamp, Andreas; Østergård, Hanne

    2016-01-01

    the future may bring. We develop a systematic approach to explorative scenario analysis and attempt to quantify aspects of resilience specifically for emergy assessment (EmA) of production systems. We group system inputs into five categories: (1) fossil fuels, their derivatives, metals and minerals, (2) on......-site renewable inputs, (3) slowly renewable inputs, (4) direct labour and (5) indirect labour. We consider the existing EmA indicators of biophysical efficiency (the unit emergy value, UEV), the degree of dependence on free, renewable, natural flows of energy (%R) and the degree of dependence on local inputs...... by corresponding narratives. We analyse the aggregated effect on UEVs of these scenarios for production systems that differ with respect to how the emergy flow is distributed among the five input categories. We find that for most production systems, scenario conditions significantly affect the UEV. The production...

  15. Participatory scenario planning in place-based social-ecological research

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rozas, Elisa Oteros; Martín-López, Berta; Daw, Tim M.

    2015-01-01

    Participatory scenario planning (PSP) is an increasingly popular tool in place-based environmental research for evaluating alternative futures of social-ecological systems. Although a range of guidelines on PSP methods are available in the scientific and grey literature, there is a need to reflect...

  16. Kalman filter for speech enhancement in cocktail party scenarios using a codebook-based approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kavalekalam, Mathew Shaji; Christensen, Mads Græsbøll; Gran, Fredrik;

    2016-01-01

    Enhancement of speech in non-stationary background noise is a challenging task, and conventional single channel speech enhancement algorithms have not been able to improve the speech intelligibility in such scenarios. The work proposed in this paper investigates a single channel Kalman filter based...

  17. Design Process of a Goal-Based Scenario on Computing Fundamentals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beriswill, Joanne Elizabeth

    2014-01-01

    In this design case, an instructor developed a goal-based scenario (GBS) for undergraduate computer fundamentals students to apply their knowledge of computer equipment and software. The GBS, entitled the MegaTech Project, presented the students with descriptions of the everyday activities of four persons needing to purchase a computer system. The…

  18. Adapting Scenario-Based Curriculum Materials to Community College Technical Courses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yarnall, Louise; Toyama, Yukie; Gong, Bowyee; Ayers, Catherine; Ostrander, Jane

    2007-01-01

    Community college educators seek to infuse their workforce courses with more "real world" activities. This 3-year case study examined how 7 instructors and 78 students in California and Texas responded to the changes involved in implementing one type of reform program--the scenario-based curriculum (Schank, 1997). The study shows that…

  19. Multimedia Scenario Based Learning Programme for Enhancing the English Language Efficiency among Primary School Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tupe, Navnath

    2015-01-01

    This research was undertaken with a view to assess the deficiencies in English language among Primary School Children and to develop Multimedia Scenario Based Learning Programme (MSBLP) for mastery of English language which required special attention and effective treatment. The experimental study with pre-test, post-test control group design was…

  20. THE SCENARIOS APPROACH TO ATTENUATION-BASED REMEDIES FOR INORGANIC AND RADIONUCLIDE CONTAMINANTS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vangelas, K.; Rysz, M.; Truex, M.; Brady, P.; Newell, C.; Denham, M.

    2011-08-04

    Guidance materials based on use of conceptual model scenarios were developed to assist evaluation and implementation of attenuation-based remedies for groundwater and vadose zones contaminated with inorganic and radionuclide contaminants. The Scenarios approach is intended to complement the comprehensive information provided in the US EPA's Technical Protocol for Monitored Natural Attenuation (MNA) of Inorganic Contaminants by providing additional information on site conceptual models and extending the evaluation to consideration of Enhanced Attenuation approaches. The conceptual models incorporate the notion of reactive facies, defined as units with hydrogeochemical properties that are different from surrounding units and that react with contaminants in distinct ways. The conceptual models also incorporate consideration of biogeochemical gradients, defined as boundaries between different geochemical conditions that have been induced by waste disposal or other natural phenomena. Gradients can change over time when geochemical conditions from one area migrate into another, potentially affecting contaminant mobility. A recognition of gradients allows the attenuation-affecting conditions of a site to be projected into the future. The Scenarios approach provides a stepwise process to identify an appropriate category of conceptual model and refine it for a specific site. Scenario materials provide links to pertinent sections in the EPA technical protocol and present information about contaminant mobility and important controlling mechanism for attenuation-based remedies based on the categories of conceptual models.

  1. Performance Assessment of a Solar-Assisted Desiccant-Based Air Handling Unit Considering Different Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giovanni Angrisani

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, three alternative layouts (scenarios of an innovative solar-assisted hybrid desiccant-based air handling unit (AHU are investigated through dynamic simulations. Performance is evaluated with respect to a reference system and compared to those of the innovative plant without modifications. For each scenario, different collector types, surfaces and tilt angles are considered. The effect of the solar thermal energy surplus exploitation for other low-temperature uses is also investigated. The first alternative scenario consists of the recovery of the heat rejected by the condenser of the chiller to pre-heat the regeneration air. The second scenario considers the pre-heating of regeneration air with the warmer regeneration air exiting the desiccant wheel (DW. The last scenario provides pre-cooling of the process air before entering the DW. Results reveal that the plants with evacuated solar collectors (SC can ensure primary energy savings (15%–24% and avoid equivalent CO2 emissions (14%–22%, about 10 percentage points more than those with flat-plate collectors, when the solar thermal energy is used only for air conditioning and the collectors have the best tilt angle. If all of the solar thermal energy is considered, the best results with evacuated tube collectors are approximately 73% in terms of primary energy saving, 71% in terms of avoided equivalent CO2 emissions and a payback period of six years.

  2. Developing a CBA Methodology for the Scenario-Based Land-Use Impact Assessment of Proposed Rail Investments in the Leipzig Region

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ustaoglu, Eda; Williams, Brndan; Petrov, Laura Oana

    2012-01-01

    This paper develops a methodological approach to be utilised for the evaluation of transport-land-use impacts of rapid rail investments in the Leipzig Region with the potential for this approach to be used for other European regions. Various land development scenarios are generated from the MOLAND...... Model applications. The land-use scenarios considered in this research are a baseline scenario of dispersed development and an alternative scenario of more compact urban developments associated with potential rapid rail provisions in the Leipzig Region. The appraisal of transport-land-use relationships...... is subject to the use of economic indicators and can be evaluated based on alternative land development scenarios developed for the Leipzig Area. In this context, key elements of a Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) approach will be developed for the evaluation of potential costs of urban rail provisions with its...

  3. Scenario Based Approach for Multiple Source Tsunami Hazard Assessment for Sines, Portugal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wronna, Martin; Omira, Rachid; Baptista, Maria Ana

    2015-04-01

    In this paper, we present a scenario-based approach for tsunami hazard assessment for the city and harbour of Sines, Portugal one the test-sites of project ASTARTE. Sines holds one of the most important deep-water ports which contains oil-bearing, petrochemical, liquid bulk, coal and container terminals. The port and its industrial infrastructures are facing the ocean to the southwest facing the main seismogenic sources. This work considers two different seismic zones: the Southwest Iberian Margin and the Gloria Fault. Within these two regions, a total of five scenarios were selected to assess tsunami impact at the test site. These scenarios correspond to the worst-case credible scenario approach based upon the largest events of the historical and paleo tsunami catalogues. The tsunami simulations from the source area towards the coast is carried out using NSWING a Non-linear Shallow Water Model With Nested Grids. The code solves the non-linear shallow water equations using the discretization and explicit leap-frog finite difference scheme, in a Cartesian or Spherical frame. The initial sea surface displacement is assumed to be equal to the sea bottom deformation that is computed by Okada equations. Both uniform and non-uniform slip conditions are used. The presented results correspond to the models using non-uniform slip conditions. In this study, the static effect of tides is analysed for three different tidal stages MLLW (mean lower low water) MSL (mean sea level) and MHHW (mean higher high water). For each scenario, inundation is described by maximum values of wave height, flow depth, drawdown, run-up and inundation distance. Synthetic waveforms are computed at virtual tide gages at specific locations outside and inside the harbour. The final results consist of Aggregate Scenario Maps presented for the different inundation parameters. This work is funded by ASTARTE - Assessment, Strategy And Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe - FP7-ENV2013 6.4-3, Grant 603839

  4. A structured process to develop scenarios for use in evaluation of an evidence-based approach in clinical decision making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manns PJ

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Patricia J Manns, Johanna DarrahDepartment of Physical Therapy, Faculty of Rehabilitation Medicine, University of Alberta, Edmonton, CanadaBackground and purpose: Scenarios are used as the basis from which to evaluate the use of the components of evidence-based practice in decision making, yet there are few examples of a standardized process of scenario writing. The aim of this paper is to describe a step-by-step scenario writing method used in the context of the authors’ curriculum research study.Methods: Scenario writing teams included one physical therapy clinician and one academic staff member. There were four steps in the scenario development process: (1 identify prevalent condition and brainstorm interventions; (2 literature search; (3 develop scenario framework; and (4 write scenario.Results: Scenarios focused only on interventions, not diagnostic or prognostic problems. The process led to two types of scenarios – ones that provided an intervention with strong research evidence and others where the intervention had weak evidence to support its use. The end product of the process was a scenario that incorporates aspects of evidence-based decision making and can be used as the basis for evaluation.Conclusion: The use of scenarios has been very helpful to capture therapists’ reasoning processes. The scenario development process was applied in an education context as part of a final evaluation of graduating clinical physical therapy students.Keywords: physical therapists, clinical decision making, evaluation, curriculum

  5. Scenarios of Future Water use on Mediterranean Islands based on an Integrated Assessment of Water Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lange, M. A.

    2006-12-01

    The availability of water in sufficient quantities and adequate quality presents considerable problems on Mediterranean islands. Because of their isolation and thus the impossibility to draw on more distant or more divers aquifers, they rely entirely on precipitation as natural replenishing mechanism. Recent observations indicate decreasing precipitation, increasing evaporation and steadily growing demand for water on the islands. Future climate change will exacerbate this problem, thus increasing the already pertinent vulnerability to droughts. Responsible planning of water management strategies requires scenarios of future supply and demand through an integrated assessment including climate scenarios based on regional climate modeling as well as scenarios on changes in societal and economical determinants of water demand. Constructing such strategies necessitates a thorough understanding about the interdependencies and feedbacks between physical/hydrological and socio-economic determinants of water balances on an island. This has to be based on a solid understanding of past and present developments of these drivers. In the framework of the EU-funded MEDIS project (Towards sustainable water use on Mediterranean Islands: addressing conflicting demands and varying hydrological, social and economic conditions, EVK1-CT-2001-00092), detailed investigations on present vulnerabilities and adaptation strategies to droughts have been carried out on Mallorca, Corsica, Sicily, Crete and Cyprus. This was based on an interdisciplinary study design including hydrological, geophysical, agricultural-, social and political sciences investigations. A central element of the study has been the close interaction with stakeholders on the islands and their contribution to strategy formulation. An important result has been a specification of vulnerability components including: a physical/environmental-, an economical/regulatory- and a social/institutional/political component. Their

  6. Technology penetration and capital stock turnover. Lessons from IEA scenario analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Philibert, C. [International Energy Agency IEA, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development OECD, Paris (France)

    2007-05-15

    The aim of this paper is to reflect on the significant differences between the emissions reductions projections in mid-term and long-term scenarios, and to explore their policy implications. It draws mainly on two recent IEA publications: the 2006 World Energy Outlook (WEO), which contains energy and energy-related CO2 projections up to 2030, and the 2006-published Energy Technology Perspectives (ETP), which considers scenarios and strategies up to 2050. The analysis focuses on a comparison of the Alternative Policy Scenario of the 2006 WEO, and the various Accelerated Technology (ACT) Scenarios in the ETP. The next section provides the necessary background on these two publications and their energy-related CO2 emissions by 2030 and 2050, respectively. The third section investigates in some more depth the reasons for the large differences in the amount of emission reductions at these dates. Capital stock turnover and technology maturation lead times, in particular, are identified as primary reasons for the differences. The fourth section suggests several possible policy conclusions that can be drawn from this analysis. They include thought pieces with respect to the action required in the short-term; to the necessity of long-term signals; to the advantages and limitations of short-term targets; and to the opportunities and challenges the international community faces with respect to emission reductions in developing countries.

  7. Scenario analysis for sustainable development of Chongming Island: water resources sustainability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ni, Xiong; Wu, Yanqing; Wu, Jun; Lu, Jian; Wilson, P Chris

    2012-11-15

    With the socioeconomic and urban development of Chongming Island (the largest alluvial island in the world), water demand is rapidly growing. To make adjustments to the water utilization structure of each industry, allocate limited water resources, and increase local water use efficiency, this study performed a scenario analysis for the water sustainability of Chongming Island. Four different scenarios were performed to assess the water resource availability by 2020. The growth rate for water demand will be much higher than that of water supply under a serious situation prediction. The water supply growth volume will be 2.22 × 10(8)m(3) from 2010 to 2020 under Scenario I and Scenario II while the corresponding water demand growth volume will be 2.74 × 10(8)m(3) and 2.64 × 10(8)m(3), respectively. There will be a rapid growth in water use benefit under both high and low development modes. The water use benefit will be about 50 CNY/m(3) under Scenarios I and II in 2020. The production structure will need to be adjusted for sustainable utilization of water resources. Sewage drainage but not the forest and grass coverage rate will be a major obstacle to future development and environmental quality. According to a multi-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, Scenario II is finally deemed to be the most desirable plan, suggesting that the policy of rapid socioeconomic development and better environmental protection may achieve the most sustainable development of Chongming Island in the future.

  8. Scenarios which may lead to the rise of an asteroid-based technical civilisation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kecskes, Csaba

    2002-05-01

    In a previous paper, the author described a hypothetical development path of technical civilisations which has the following stages: planet dwellers, asteroid dwellers, interstellar travellers, interstellar space dwellers. In this paper, several scenarios are described which may cause the rise of an asteroid-based technical civilisation. Before such a transition may take place, certain space technologies must be developed fully (now these exist only in very preliminary forms): closed-cycle biological life support systems, space manufacturing systems, electrical propulsion systems. After mastering these technologies, certain events may provide the necessary financial means and social impetus for the foundation of the first asteroid-based colonies. In the first scenario, a rich minority group becomes persecuted and they decide to leave the Earth. In the second scenario, a "cold war"-like situation exists and the leaders of the superpowers order the creation of asteroid-based colonies to show off their empires' technological (and financial) grandiosity. In the third scenario, the basic situation is similar to the second one, but in this case the asteroids are not just occupied by the colonists. With several decades of hard work, an asteroid can be turned into a kinetic energy weapon which can provide the same (or greater) threat as the nuclear arsenal of a present superpower. In the fourth scenario, some military asteroids are moved to Earth-centred orbits and utilised as "solar power satellites" (SPS). This would be a quite economical solution because a "military asteroid" already contains most of the important components of an SPS (large solar collector arrays, power distribution devices, orbit modifying rocket engine), one should add only a large microwave transmitter.

  9. Scenarios which may lead to the rise of an asteroid-based technical civilisation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kecskes, Csaba

    2002-05-01

    In a previous paper, the author described a hypothetical development path of technical civilisations which has the following stages: planet dwellers, asteroid dwellers, interstellar travellers, interstellar space dwellers. In this paper, several scenarios are described which may cause the rise of an asteroid-based technical civilisation. Before such a transition may take place, certain space technologies must be developed fully (now these exist only in very preliminary forms): closed-cycle biological life support systems, space manufacturing systems, electrical propulsion systems. After mastering these technologies, certain events may provide the necessary financial means and social impetus for the foundation of the first asteroid-based colonies. In the first scenario, a rich minority group becomes persecuted and they decide to leave the Earth. In the second scenario, a "cold war"-like situation exists and the leaders of the superpowers order the creation of asteroid-based colonies to show off their empires' technological (and financial) grandiosity. In the third scenario, the basic situation is similar to the second one, but in this case the asteroids are not just occupied by the colonists. With several decades of hard work, an asteroid can be turned into a kinetic energy weapon which can provide the same (or greater) threat as the nuclear arsenal of a present superpower. In the fourth scenario, some military asteroids are moved to Earth-centred orbits and utilised as "solar power satellites" (SPS). This would be a quite economical solution because a "military asteroid" already contains most of the important components of an SPS (large solar collector arrays, power distribution devices, orbit modifying rocket engine), one should add only a large microwave transmitter.

  10. Photodegradation of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in soils under a climate change base scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marquès, Montse; Mari, Montse; Audí-Miró, Carme; Sierra, Jordi; Soler, Albert; Nadal, Martí; Domingo, José L

    2016-04-01

    The photodegradation of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in two typical Mediterranean soils, either coarse- or fine-textured, was here investigated. Soil samples, spiked with the 16 US EPA priority PAHs, were incubated in a climate chamber at stable conditions of temperature (20 °C) and light (9.6 W m(-2)) for 28 days, simulating a climate change base scenario. PAH concentrations in soils were analyzed throughout the experiment, and correlated with data obtained by means of Microtox(®) ecotoxicity test. Photodegradation was found to be dependent on exposure time, molecular weight of each hydrocarbon, and soil texture. Fine-textured soil was able to enhance sorption, being PAHs more photodegraded than in coarse-textured soil. According to the EC50 values reported by Microtox(®), a higher detoxification was observed in fine-textured soil, being correlated with the outcomes of the analytical study. Significant photodegradation rates were detected for a number of PAHs, namely phenanthrene, anthracene, benzo(a)pyrene, and indeno(123-cd)pyrene. Benzo(a)pyrene, commonly used as an indicator for PAH pollution, was completely removed after 7 days of light exposure. In addition to the PAH chemical analysis and the ecotoxicity tests, a hydrogen isotope analysis of benzo(a)pyrene was also carried out. The degradation of this specific compound was associated to a high enrichment in (2)H, obtaining a maximum δ(2)H isotopic shift of +232‰. This strong isotopic effect observed in benzo(a)pyrene suggests that compound-specific isotope analysis (CSIA) may be a powerful tool to monitor in situ degradation of PAHs. Moreover, hydrogen isotopes of benzo(a)pyrene evidenced a degradation process of unknown origin occurring in the darkness.

  11. A scenario-based clean gasoline production strategy for China National Petroleum Corporation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Liu Haiyan; Yu Jianning; Fan Yu; Shi Gang; Bao Xiaojun

    2008-01-01

    Facing increasingly strict environmental regulations on transportation fuels,China National Petroleum Corp.(CNPC),the second largest supplier of petroleum products in China,needs to upgrade its transportation fuels.Using the scenario-based analysis method,this paper analyzes how the emission related properties,including antiknock index,and sulfur,olefin,benzene and aromatics contents of gasoline produced by CNPC,vary with the change in the configuration of gasoline production units in the future 5-15 years.The results showed that for CNPC to upgrade its gasoline,the share of fluid catalytic cracking(FCC)naphtha must be reduced,but just increasing reformate or alkylate and isomerate will result in excessive increase in benzene and aromatics contents or a great loss of gasoline octane number.Therefore,CNPC should suitably control the capacity of its FCC units and increase the capacity of reformer,alkylation and isomerization units.Most importantly,CNPC should dramatically expand the capacity of its hydrotreating or non-hydrotreating gasoline upgrading units to decrease the olefin and sulfur contents in FCC gasoline that takes a dominant share of about 80% in the gasoline pool of China.

  12. Scenario-based verification of real-time systems using UPPAAL

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Li, Shuhao; Belaguer, Sandie; David, Alexandre;

    2010-01-01

    as a separate monitored LSC chart. We make timed extensions to a kernel subset of the LSC language and define a trace-based semantics. By translating a monitored LSC chart to a behavior-equivalent observer TA and then non-intrusively composing this observer with the original TA modeled real-time system......, the problem of scenario-based verification reduces to a computation tree logic (CTL) real-time model checking problem. In case the real time system is modeled as a set of driving LSC charts, we translate these driving charts and the monitored chart into a behavior-equivalent network of TAs by using a “one......Abstract This paper proposes two approaches to tool-supported automatic verification of dense real-time systems against scenario-based requirements, where a system is modeled as a network of timed automata (TAs) or as a set of driving live sequence charts (LSCs), and a requirement is specified...

  13. Analysis of Concentrating Solar Power with Thermal Energy Storage in a California 33% Renewable Scenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Denholm, P.; Wan, Y. H.; Hummon, M.; Mehos, M.

    2013-03-01

    This analysis evaluates CSP with TES in a scenario where California derives 33% of its electricity from renewable energy sources. It uses a commercial grid simulation tool to examine the avoided operational and capacity costs associated with CSP and compares this value to PV and a baseload generation with constant output. Overall, the analysis demonstrates several properties of dispatchable CSP, including the flexibility to generate during periods of high value and avoid generation during periods of lower value. Of note in this analysis is the fact that significant amount of operational value is derived from the provision of reserves in the case where CSP is allowed to provide these services. This analysis also indicates that the 'optimal' configuration of CSP could vary as a function of renewable penetration, and each configuration will need to be evaluated in terms of its ability to provide dispatchable energy, reserves, and firm capacity. The model can be used to investigate additional scenarios involving alternative technology options and generation mixes, applying these scenarios within California or in other regions of interest.

  14. Managing Obstetric Emergencies and Trauma (MOET structured skills training in Armenia, utilising models and reality based scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Israelyan Musheg

    2002-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Mortality rates in Western Europe have fallen significantly over the last 50 years. Maternal mortality now averages 10 maternal deaths per 100,000 live births but in some of the Newly Independent States of the former Soviet Union, the ratio is nearly 4 times higher. The availability of skilled attendants to prevent, detect and manage major obstetric complications may be the single most important factor in preventing maternal deaths. A modern, multidisciplinary, scenario and model based training programme has been established in the UK (Managing Obstetric Emergencies and Trauma (MOET and allows specialist obstetricians to learn or revise the undertaking of procedures using models, and to have their skills tested in scenarios. Methods Given the success of the MOET course in the UK, the organisers were keen to evaluate it in another setting (Armenia. Pre-course knowledge and practice questionnaires were administered. In an exploratory analysis, post-course results were compared to pre-course answers obtained by the same interviewer. Results All candidates showed an improvement in post-course scores. The range was far narrower afterwards (167–188 than before (85–129.5. In the individual score analysis only two scenarios showed a non-significant change (cord prolapse and breech delivery. Conclusion This paper demonstrates the reliability of the model based scenarios, with a highly significant improvement in obstetric emergency management. However, clinical audit will be required to measure the full impact of training by longer term follow up. Audit of delays, specific obstetric complications, referrals and near misses may all be amenable to review.

  15. Performance Analysis of Ad Hoc Routing Protocols in City Scenario for VANET

    Science.gov (United States)

    Das, Sanjoy; Raw, Ram Shringar; Das, Indrani

    2011-12-01

    In this paper, performance analysis of Location Aided Routing (LAR), AODV and DSR protocol in city scenarios has been done. The mobility model considered is Manhattan model. This mobility model used to emulate the movement pattern of nodes i.e., vehicles on streets defined by maps. Our objective is to provide a comparative analysis among LAR, AODV and DSR protocol in city scenarios in Vehicular Ad hoc Networks. The simulation work has been conducted using the Glomosim 2.03 simulator. The results show that LAR1 protocol achieves maximum packet delivery ratio is 100% in the sparsely populated network. The delay is maximum in AODV 121.88 ms when the number of node is 10 in the network. The results show that LAR1 outperform DSR and AODV in term of packet delivery ratio and end to end delay.

  16. ECLIPSE: An integrated energy-economy model for climate policy and scenario analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Turton, Hal [Energy Economics Group, Paul Scherrer Institute, CH-5232 Villigen PSI (Switzerland)

    2008-12-15

    This paper describes the development of the Energy and Climate Policy and Scenario Evaluation (ECLIPSE) model - a flexible integrated assessment tool for energy and climate change policy and scenario assessment. This tool builds on earlier efforts to link top-down and bottom-up models, and combines a macroeconomic energy demand model and a consumer-budget transport demand model with the technology-rich bottom-up energy and transport system model Energy Research and Investment Strategy (ERIS), and solves the models iteratively. Compared to previous efforts, ECLIPSE includes many new features, such as a more disaggregated production function, improved calibration and parameterization and separate modeling of passenger transport demand. The separate modeling of transportation makes ECLIPSE particularly well-suited to analyzing interactions between the transport sector and the broader energy market and economy. This paper presents results illustrating some features of the integrated model, compares technology deployment results with ECLIPSE and the bottom-up ERIS model, and briefly describes illustrative baseline and greenhouse gas mitigation scenarios to highlight some of the features of the framework outlined in this paper. A number of modeling and policy insights arising from this scenario analysis are discussed. (author)

  17. An interdisciplinary scenario analysis to assess the water availability and water consumption in the Upper Ouémé catchment in Benin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Giertz

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an interdisciplinary scenario analysis to assess the influence of global and regional change on future water availability and water consumption in the Upper Ouémé catchment in central Benin. For the region three development scenarios were evolved. These scenarios are combined with climate change scenarios based on the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In the mo-delling approach the quantification of the land use/land cover change is performed by the cellular automata model CLUE-S. The future climate scenarios are computed with the regional climate model REMO driven by the global ECHAM model. Using this data different land use and climate change scenarios can be calculated with the conceptual hydrological model UHP-HRU to assess the effects of global changes on the future water availability in Benin. To analyse the future water availability also the water consumption has to be taken into account. Due to high population growth an increase in water need in the future is expected for the region. To calculate the future household water consumption data from a regional survey and demographic projections are used. Development of the water need for animal husbandry is also considered. The first test run of the modelling approach was performed for the development scenario 'business as usual' combined with the IPCC scenario B2 for the year 2025. This test demonstrates the applicability of the approach for an interdisciplinary scenario analysis. A continuous run from 2000–2025 will be simulated for different scenarios as soon as the input data concerning land use/land cover and climate are available.

  18. A life cycle cost analysis framework for geologic storage of hydrogen : a scenario analysis.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kobos, Peter Holmes; Lord, Anna Snider; Borns, David James

    2010-10-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy has an interest in large scale hydrogen geostorage, which would offer substantial buffer capacity to meet possible disruptions in supply. Geostorage options being considered are salt caverns, depleted oil/gas reservoirs, aquifers and potentially hard rock cavrns. DOE has an interest in assessing the geological, geomechanical and economic viability for these types of hydrogen storage options. This study has developed an ecocomic analysis methodology to address costs entailed in developing and operating an underground geologic storage facility. This year the tool was updated specifically to (1) a version that is fully arrayed such that all four types of geologic storage options can be assessed at the same time, (2) incorporate specific scenarios illustrating the model's capability, and (3) incorporate more accurate model input assumptions for the wells and storage site modules. Drawing from the knowledge gained in the underground large scale geostorage options for natural gas and petroleum in the U.S. and from the potential to store relatively large volumes of CO{sub 2} in geological formations, the hydrogen storage assessment modeling will continue to build on these strengths while maintaining modeling transparency such that other modeling efforts may draw from this project.

  19. Developing scenarios to assess future landslide risks: a model-based approach applied to mountainous regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vacquie, Laure; Houet, Thomas

    2016-04-01

    In the last century, European mountain landscapes have experienced significant transformations. Natural and anthropogenic changes, climate changes, touristic and industrial development, socio-economic interactions, and their implications in terms of LUCC (land use and land cover changes) have directly influenced the spatial organization and vulnerability of mountain landscapes. This study is conducted as part of the SAMCO project founded by the French National Science Agency (ANR). It aims at developing a methodological approach, combining various tools, modelling platforms and methods, to identify vulnerable regions to landslide hazards accounting for futures LUCC. It presents an integrated approach combining participative scenarios and a LULC changes simulation models to assess the combined effects of LUCC and climate change on landslide risks in the Cauterets valley (French Pyrenees Mountains) up to 2100. Through vulnerability and risk mapping, the objective is to gather information to support landscape planning and implement land use strategies with local stakeholders for risk management. Four contrasting scenarios are developed and exhibit contrasting trajectories of socio-economic development. Prospective scenarios are based on national and international socio-economic contexts relying on existing assessment reports. The methodological approach integrates knowledge from local stakeholders to refine each scenario during their construction and to reinforce their plausibility and relevance by accounting for local specificities, e.g. logging and pastoral activities, touristic development, urban planning, etc. A process-based model, the Forecasting Scenarios for Mountains (ForeSceM) model, developed on the Dinamica Ego modelling platform is used to spatially allocate futures LUCC for each prospective scenario. Concurrently, a spatial decision support tool, i.e. the SYLVACCESS model, is used to identify accessible areas for forestry in scenario projecting logging

  20. The Application of Scenario Analysis in the Overall Planning of Land Use:A Case Study of Shangluo City in Shaanxi Province

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SUN Pi-ling; YANG Hai-juan

    2012-01-01

    The overall planning of land use is a complex process of joint action of social system, natural and economic conditions. On the basis of summarizing the existing researches, we select Shaanxi’s Shangluo City, located in the Qinba mountainous area as the study object, to expound the concept and steps of scenario analysis based on land use change data, under the guidance of ecological safety and sustainable development theory. We design four different scenarios of land use planning program in Shangluo City during the period 2006-2020, and use grey linear programming model to analyze each scenario. The results show that the scenario analysis is feasible in the adjustment of land use structure in Shangluo City; operable in the determining of land use planning program on a macro-municipal scale.

  1. Representing Instructional Material for Scenario-Based Guided-Discovery Courseware

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Greitzer, Frank L.; Merrill, M. DAVID.; Rice, Douglas M.; Curtis, Darren S.

    2004-12-06

    The focus of this paper is to discuss paradigms for learning that are based on sound principles of human learning and cognition, and to discuss technical challenges that must be overcome in achieving this research goal through instructional system design (ISD) approaches that are cost-effective as well as conformant with today's interactive multimedia instruction standards. Fundamental concepts are to: engage learners to solve real-world problems (progress from simple to complex); relate material to previous experience; demonstrate what is to be learned using interactive, problem-centered activities rather than passive exposure to material; require learners to use their new knowledge to solve problems that demonstrate their knowledge in a relevant applied setting; and guide the learner with feedback and coaching early, then gradually withdraw this support as learning progresses. Many of these principles have been put into practice by employing interactive learning objects as re-usable components of larger, more integrated exercises. A challenge is to make even more extensive use of interactive, scenario-based activities within a guided-discovery framework. Because the design and construction of interactive, scenario-based learning objects and more complex integrated exercises is labor-intensive, this paper explores the use of interactive learning objects and associated representation schema for instructional content to facilitate development of tools for creating scenario-based, guided-discovery courseware.

  2. Assessing Interventions to Manage West Nile Virus Using Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis with Risk Scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hongoh, Valerie; Campagna, Céline; Panic, Mirna; Samuel, Onil; Gosselin, Pierre; Waaub, Jean-Philippe; Ravel, André; Samoura, Karim; Michel, Pascal

    2016-01-01

    The recent emergence of West Nile virus (WNV) in North America highlights vulnerability to climate sensitive diseases and stresses the importance of preventive efforts to reduce their public health impact. Effective prevention involves reducing environmental risk of exposure and increasing adoption of preventive behaviours, both of which depend on knowledge and acceptance of such measures. When making operational decisions about disease prevention and control, public health must take into account a wide range of operational, environmental, social and economic considerations in addition to intervention effectiveness. The current study aimed to identify, assess and rank possible risk reduction measures taking into account a broad set of criteria and perspectives applicable to the management of WNV in Quebec under increasing transmission risk scenarios, some of which may be related to ongoing warming in higher-latitude regions. A participatory approach was used to collect information on categories of concern to relevant stakeholders with respect to WNV prevention and control. Multi-criteria decision analysis was applied to examine stakeholder perspectives and their effect on strategy rankings under increasing transmission risk scenarios. Twenty-three preventive interventions were retained for evaluation using eighteen criteria identified by stakeholders. Combined evaluations revealed that, at an individual-level, inspecting window screen integrity, wearing light colored, long clothing, eliminating peridomestic larval sites and reducing outdoor activities at peak times were top interventions under six WNV transmission scenarios. At a regional-level, the use of larvicides was a preferred strategy in five out of six scenarios, while use of adulticides and dissemination of sterile male mosquitoes were found to be among the least favoured interventions in almost all scenarios. Our findings suggest that continued public health efforts aimed at reinforcing individual

  3. Measuring Engagement in Later Life Activities: Rasch-Based Scenario Scales for Work, Caregiving, Informal Helping, and Volunteering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ludlow, Larry H.; Matz-Costa, Christina; Johnson, Clair; Brown, Melissa; Besen, Elyssa; James, Jacquelyn B.

    2014-01-01

    The development of Rasch-based "comparative engagement scenarios" based on Guttman's facet theory and sentence mapping procedures is described. The scenario scales measuring engagement in work, caregiving, informal helping, and volunteering illuminate the lived experiences of role involvement among older adults and offer multiple…

  4. Developing Courses with Holorena, A Framework for Scenario- and Game Based E-Learning Environments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laszlo Juracz

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available However utilizing rich, interactive solutions can make learning more effective and attractive, scenarioandgame-based educational resources on the web are not widely used. Creating these applications is acomplex, expensive and challenging process. Development frameworks and authoring tools hardlysupport reusable components, teamwork and learning management system-independent coursewarearchitecture. In this article we initiate the concept of a low-level, thick-client solution addressing theseproblems. With some example applications we try to demonstrate, how a framework, based on thisconcept can be useful for developing scenario- and game-based e-learning environments.

  5. Projection in Future Drought Hazard of South Korea Based on RCP Climate Change Scenario 8.5 Using SPEI

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Byung Sik Kim

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI analysis was conducted using monthly precipitation data and temperature data on a 12.5 km × 12.5 km resolution based on a Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 8.5 climate change scenario, and the characteristics of drought were identified by the threshold. In addition, the changes in drought severity and intensity were projected using the threshold based on the run-length concept and frequency analysis. As a result of the analysis, the probability density function of the total drought and maximum drought intensity moved the upper tail for the upcoming years, and the average drought intensity was also projected to become stronger in the future than in the present to the right side. Through this, it could be projected that the drought scale and frequency and the drought intensity will become severer over South Korea because of future climate change.

  6. Study of the triton-burnup process in different JET scenarios using neutron monitor based on CVD diamond

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nemtsev, G.; Amosov, V.; Meshchaninov, S.; Popovichev, S.; Rodionov, R.

    2016-11-01

    We present the results of analysis of triton burn-up process using the data from diamond detector. Neutron monitor based on CVD diamond was installed in JET torus hall close to the plasma center. We measure the part of 14 MeV neutrons in scenarios where plasma current varies in a range of 1-3 MA. In this experiment diamond neutron monitor was also able to detect strong gamma bursts produced by runaway electrons arising during the disruptions. We can conclude that CVD diamond detector will contribute to the study of fast particles confinement and help predict the disruption events in future tokamaks.

  7. Trajectory Generation Model-Based IMM Tracking for Safe Driving in Intersection Scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tingting Zhou

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Tracking the actions of vehicles at crossroads and planning safe trajectories will be an effective method to reduce the rate of traffic accident at intersections. It is to resolve the problem of the abrupt change because of the existence of drivers' voluntary choices. In this paper, we make approach of an improved IMM tracking method based on trajectory generation, abstracted by trajectory generation algorithm, to improve this situation. Because of the similarity between human-driving trajectory and programming trajectory which is generated by trajectory-generated algorithm, the improved IMM method performs well in tracking moving vehicles with some sudden changes of its movement. A set of data is collected for experiments when an object vehicle takes a sudden left turn in intersection scenario. To compare the experiment results between IMM method with trajectory generation model and the one without, tracking error of the former decreases by 75% in particular scenario.

  8. Modelling land use changes according to transportation scenarios using raster based GIS indicators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fuglsang, Morten; Münier, Bernd; Hansen, Henning Sten

    2012-01-01

    . In the EU-FP7 research project PASHMINA (Paradigm Shift modelling and innovative approaches), three storylines of future transportation paradigm shifts towards 2050 are created. These storylines are translated into spatial planning strategies and their implication on land use changes were modelled via...... the cellular automata model LUCIA. An Eastern Danish case area was selected, comprising the Copenhagen metropolitan area and its hinterland. The different scenarios are described using a range of different GIS datasets. These include mapping of accessibility based on public and private transportation, urban...... in urban distribution that different spatial planning strategies may initiate, and thus change the shape of the urban landscape. The scenarios outline different planning strategies, leading to a more homogenous urban structure, targeted at a reduction of transportation work and thus energy consumption...

  9. Improved seismic risk estimation for Bucharest, based on multiple hazard scenarios, analytical methods and new techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toma-Danila, Dragos; Florinela Manea, Elena; Ortanza Cioflan, Carmen

    2014-05-01

    a very local-dependent hazard. Also, for major earthquakes, nonlinear effects need to be considered. This problem is treated accordingly, by using recent microzonation studies, together with real data recorded at 4 events with Mw≥6. Different ground motion prediction equations are also analyzed, and improvement of them is investigated. For the buildings and population damage assessment, two open-source software are used and compared: SELENA and ELER. The damage probability for buildings is obtained through capacity-spectrum based methods. The spectral content is used for spectral acceleration at 0.2, 0.3 and 1 seconds. As the level of analysis (6 sectors for all the city) has not the best resolution with respect to the Bucharest hazard scenarios defined, we propose a procedure on how to divide the data into smaller units, taking into consideration the construction code (4 periods) and material. This approach relies on free data available from real estate agencies web-sites. The study provides an insight view on the seismic risk analysis for Bucharest and an improvement of the real-time emergency system. Most important, the system is also evaluated through real data and relevant scenarios. State-of-the art GIS maps are also presented, both for seismic hazard and risk.

  10. Scenario analysis for biodiversity conservation: a social-ecological system approach in the Australian Alps.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitchell, Michael; Lockwood, Michael; Moore, Susan A; Clement, Sarah

    2015-03-01

    Current policy interventions are having limited success in addressing the ongoing decline in global biodiversity. In part, this is attributable to insufficient attention being paid to the social and governance processes that drive decisions and can undermine their implementation. Scenario planning that draws on social-ecological systems (SES) analysis provides a useful means to systematically explore and anticipate future uncertainties regarding the interaction between humans and biodiversity outcomes. However, the effective application of SES models has been limited by the insufficient attention given to governance influences. Understanding the influence governance attributes have on the future trajectory of SES is likely to assist choice of effective interventions, as well as needs and opportunities for governance reform. In a case study in the Australian Alps, we explore the potential of joint SES and scenario analyses to identify how governance influences landscape-scale biodiversity outcomes. Novel aspects of our application of these methods were the specification of the focal system's governance attributes according to requirements for adaptive capacity, and constraining scenarios according to the current governance settings while varying key social and biophysical drivers. This approach allowed us to identify how current governance arrangements influence landscape-scale biodiversity outcomes, and establishes a baseline from which the potential benefits of governance reform can be assessed.

  11. Pre-test analysis of ATLAS SBO with RCP seal leakage scenario using MARS code

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pham, Quang Huy; Lee, Sang Young; Oh, Seung Jong [KEPCO International Nuclear Graduate School, Ulsan (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-10-15

    This study presents a pre-test calculation for the Advanced Thermal-hydraulic Test Loop for Accident Simulation (ATLAS) SBO experiment with RCP seal leakage scenario. Initially, turbine-driven auxfeed water pumps are used. Then, outside cooling water injection method is used for long term cooling. The analysis results would be useful for conducting the experiment to verify the APR 1400 extended SBO optimum mitigation strategy using outside cooling water injection in future. The pre-test calculation for ATLAS extended SBO with RCP seal leakage and outside cooling water injection scenario is performed. After Fukushima nuclear accident, the capability of coping with the extended station blackout (SBO) becomes important. Many NPPs are applying FLEX approach as main coping strategies for extended SBO scenarios. In FLEX strategies, outside cooling water injection to reactor cooling system (RCS) and steam generators (SGs) is considered as an effective method to remove residual heat and maintain the inventory of the systems during the accident. It is worthwhile to examine the soundness of outside cooling water injection method for extended SBO mitigation by both calculation and experimental demonstration. From the calculation results, outside cooling water injection into RCS and SGs is verified as an effective method during extended SBO when RCS and SGs depressurization is sufficiently performed.

  12. Scenario analysis of Agro-Environment measure adoption for soil erosion protection in Sicilian vineyard (Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Novara, Agata; Gristina, Luciano; Fantappiè, Maria; Costantini, Edoardo

    2014-05-01

    carbon content of the topsoil (averaged on the first 50 cm of soil depth) with the table published by Stone and Hilborn (2012). The slope-length and slope gradient (LS) factors were derived from the Digital Terrain Model of Sicily (20 x 20 m) using the formulas proposed by Wischmeier and Smith (1978), and revised by McCool et al. (1987 and 1989). The C factor were applied according previous studies in the same area and ranged among 0.22 and 0.12 and less than 0.10 using permanent species able to reduce erosion rate up to 90% (Gristina et al., 2006; Novara et al. 2011). The scenario analysis of the soil erosion reduction after the adoption of AEM could be used by policy makers as a base for the evaluation of the Payment for Ecosystem Service (PES) to be paid to farmers through the future Agro-Ecosystem measures incentives. Gristina, L., Bagarello, V., Ferro, V., Poma, I., 2006. Cover and management factor for Sicilian vineyard systems. In: 14th International Soil conservation Organization Conference—Water Management and Soil Conservation in Semi-arid Environments, 14-19 May 2006, Marrakech, Marocco (ISCO2006), pp. 1-4. A Novara, L Gristina, SS Saladino, A Santoro, A Cerda 2011 Soil erosion assessment on tillage and alternative soil managements in a Sicilian vineyard. Soil and Tillage Research 117, 140-147

  13. Applying Cellular Automata for Simulating and Assessing Urban Growth Scenario Based in Nairobi, Kenya

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kenneth Mubea

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This research explores urban growth based scenarios for the city of Nairobi using a cellular automata urban growth model (UGM. African cities have experienced rapid urbanization over the last decade due to increased population growth and high economic activities. We used multi-temporal Landsat imageries for 1976, 1986, 2000 and 2010 to investigate urban land-use changes in Nairobi. Our UGM used data from urban land-use of 1986 and 2010, road data, slope data and exclusion layer. Monte-Carlo technique was used for model calibration and Multi Resolution Validation (MRV technique for validation. Simulation of urban land-use was done up to the year 2030 when Kenya plans to attain Vision 2030. Three scenarios were explored in the urban modelling process; unmanaged growth with no restriction on environmental areas, managed growth with moderate protection, and a managed growth with maximum protection on forest, agricultural areas, and urban green. Thus alternative scenario development using UGM is useful for planning purposes so as to ensure sustainable development is achieved. UGM provides quantitative, visual, spatial and temporal information which aid policy and decision makers can make informed decisions.

  14. Analysis of Value Chain Governance: Scenarios to Develop Small-Scale Furniture Producers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rika Harini Irawati

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE X-NONE MicrosoftInternetExplorer4 Furniture industry had shown a long chain of production to consumption, from raw material producers (tree growers, semi-finished producers, finished product producers, and retailers to exporters. Jepara as a centre furniture industry in Indonesia incorporates around 15,000 business units and provide livelihoods to approximately 170,000 workers. This sector contributes about 27% of Jepara‘s people domestic income. Small and medium furniture enterprises (SMEs have significant roles in the furniture industry as production structures are characterized by them. Power and information imbalance throughout the furniture value chain have resulted in problems of uneven distribution of gains among actors of the industry. SME furniture producers have experienced an unfair value added distribution. Hence, development of SMEs is important for strengthening the industry and expected to result in a portion of value added distribution to them.  We are trying to develop scenarios for SME improvement in the furniture industry in Jepara by identifying their problems and implementing Value Chain Analysis (VCA. VCA is an approach to describe SME producer relations with other actors in the industry and the governance type of their relations. Data is collected by interviewing selected SMEs from the association of small scale producers in Jepara to get detailed maps of their value chain. The research will produce future scenarios and intervention points to improve small-scale producer sustainability and better value added distribution among furniture actors. The scenarios will not only benefit selected producers but also the furniture industry of Jepara, and can be adopted for similar industries throughout Indonesia and abroad. Keywords: furniture, value chain, governance, scenario, small-scale

  15. Scenario-based assessment of buildings damage and population exposure due to tsunamis for the town of Alexandria, Egypt

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Pagnoni

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Alexandria is the second biggest city in Egypt as regards population, is a key economic area in northern Africa and has a very important tourist activity. Historical catalogues indicate that it was severely affected by a number of tsunami events. In this work we assess the tsunami hazard by running numerical simulations of tsunami impact in Alexandria through the Worst-case Credible Tsunami Scenario Analysis (WCTSA. We identify three main seismic sources: the Western Hellenic Arc (WHA – reference event AD 365, Mw = 8.5, the Eastern Hellenic Arc (EHA – reference event 1303, Mw = 8.0 and the Cyprus Arc (CA – hypothetical scenario earthquake with Mw = 8.0, inferred from the tectonic setting and from historical tsunami catalogues. All numerical simulations are carried out by means of the code UBO-TSUFD, developed and maintained by the Tsunami Research Team of the University of Bologna. Relevant tsunami metrics are computed for each scenario and then used to build aggregated fields such as the maximum flood depth and the maximum inundation area. We find that the case that produces the most relevant flooding in Alexandria is the EHA scenario, with wave heights up to 4 m. The aggregate fields are used for a building vulnerability assessment according to a methodology developed in the frame of the EU-FP6 project SCHEMA and further refined in this study, based on the adoption of a suitable building damage matrix and on water inundation depth. It is found that in the districts of El Dekhila and Al Amriyah, to the south-west of the port of Dekhila over 12 000 buildings could be affected and hundreds of them could incur in consequences ranging from important damage to total collapse. It is also found that in the same districts tsunami inundation covers an area of about 15 km2 resulting in more than 150 000 residents being exposed.

  16. Blind estimation of the number of speech source in reverberant multisource scenarios based on binaural signals

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    May, Tobias; van de Par, Steven

    2012-01-01

    In this paper we present a new approach for estimating the number of active speech sources in the presence of interfering noise sources and reverberation. First, a binaural front-end is used to detect the spatial positions of all active sound sources, resulting in a binary mask for each candidate...... on a support vector machine (SVM) classifier. A systematic analysis shows that the proposed algorithm is able to blindly determine the number and the corresponding spatial positions of speech sources in multisource scenarios and generalizes well to unknown acoustic conditions...

  17. Analysis of the stability of PTW riders in autonomous braking scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Symeonidis, Ioannis; Kavadarli, Gueven; Erich, Schuller; Graw, Matthias; Peldschus, Steffen

    2012-11-01

    While fatalities of car occupants in the EU decreased remarkably over the last decade, Powered Two Wheelers (PTWs) fatalities still increase following the increase of PTW ownership. Autonomous braking systems have been implemented in several types of vehicles and are presently addressed by research in the field of PTWs. A major concern in this context is the rider stability. Experiments with volunteers were performed in order to find out whether autonomous braking for PTWs will produce a greater instability of the rider in comparison to manual braking. The PTW's braking conditions were simulated in a laboratory with a motorcycle mock-up mounted on a sled, which was accelerated with an average of 0.35 g. The motion of the rider was captured in autonomous braking scenarios with and without pre-warning as well as in manual braking scenarios. No significant differences between the scenarios were found with respect to maximum forward displacement of the volunteer's torso and head (pautonomous braking at low deceleration will not cause significant instabilities of the rider in comparison to manual braking in idealized laboratory conditions. Based on this, further research into the development and implementation of autonomous braking systems for PTWs, e.g. by extensive riding tests, seems valuable.

  18. Scenario analysis of the benefit of municipal organic-waste composting over landfill, Cambodia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seng, Bunrith; Hirayama, Kimiaki; Katayama-Hirayama, Keiko; Ochiai, Satoru; Kaneko, Hidehiro

    2013-01-15

    This paper presents insight into the benefits of organic waste recycling through composting over landfill, in terms of landfill life extension, compost product, and mitigation of greenhouse gases (GHGs). Future waste generation from 2003 to 2020 was forecast, and five scenarios of organic waste recycling in the municipality of Phnom Penh (MPP), Cambodia, were carried out. Organic waste-specifically food and garden waste-was used for composting, and the remaining waste was landfilled. The recycling scenarios were set based on organic waste generated from difference sources: households, restaurants, shops, markets, schools, hotels, offices, and street sweeping. Through the five scenarios, the minimum volume reductions of waste disposal were about 56, 123, and 219 m(3) d(-1) in 2003, 2012, and 2020, respectively, whereas the maximum volume reductions in these years were about 325, 643, and 1025 m(3) d(-1). These volume reductions reflect a landfill life extension of a minimum of half a year and a maximum of about four years. Compost product could be produced at a minimum of 14, 30, and 54 tons d(-1) in 2003, 2012, and 2020, respectively, and at a maximum in those years of about 80, 158, and 252 tons d(-1). At the same time benefit is gained in compost product, GHG emissions could be reduced by a minimum of 12.8% and a maximum of 65.0% from 2003 to 2020. This means about 3.23 (minimum) and 5.79 million tons CO(2)eq (maximum) contributed to GHG mitigation. In this regard, it is strongly recommended that MPP should try to initiate an organic-waste recycling strategy in a best fit scenario.

  19. Scenario analysis in business model choosing for instrument-making enterprise

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ye.V. Krykavskyi

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the article. The aim of this study is to develop the selection technology of the enterprise business model in conditions of market dynamism and uncertainty, as well as testing of this technology at a specific enterprise according to the method of situational analysis. The results of the analysis. Economic development of modern markets is characterized by the fact that almost all the enterprises experience significant dynamics and a high degree of entropy, which complicates the decision-making process. As the basic unit of the economy, the enterprise should respond correctly to new objective challenges, including: instability of global financial markets, business intellectualization and acceleration of scientific-technological progress with simultaneous strengthening of environmental demands to economic systems, increasing of competition and its transition to a global level, rapid change of consumer demands and individualization of consumer proposal, increased attention to corporate responsibility towards society and so on. Obviously, the important task of modern enterprises becomes a justification of business organization model, which is selected in accordance with the established potential and the aforementioned challenges. The authors have developed a selection technology of the enterprise business model, which involves the combination of scenarios use, strategic alternatives matrix, SWOT-analysis and the method of «decisions tree» during the implementation of the following steps: - generating of alternative scenarios of enterprise business models with the help of strategic alternatives matrix. Previously prepared analytical materials are used in the preparation of scenarios. Creating a scenario involves the following steps: determining a time interval formulation of the events, verbal interpretation of their essence, their quantitative assessment; - choosing the type of scenarios and scenarios selection criteria for business

  20. Modelling nitrogen and phosphorus fluxes from land to the UK river network - Scenario Analysis and possible mitigation measures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vinjili, Shailaja; Hiscock, Kevin; Lovett, Andrew

    2014-05-01

    Nutrient export models, based on land use and land management data, support the analysis of the cause and effect of land use changes and aid in identifying significant nutrient sources. Although various simple approaches such as export coefficient modelling have been used for national scale and regional-scale studies, many of them lack inclusion of process-based elements to the model. In this study, we present a model that describes the river nutrient (nitrogen and phosphorus) load as a function of nutrient sources, runoff, nutrient retention and hydrogeology. The model was calibrated using measured water quality data on N and P at catchment outlets and was applied to a 2-km resolution dataset established for England, Wales & Scotland. A 2-km resolution Digital Elevation Model (DEM) was developed using the grid and a flow accumulation algorithm in ESRI's ArcGIS. We combine nutrient loads from each 2-km cell with the flow accumulation model to identify the spatial distribution of critical nutrient sources to river water. Subsequently, the model was used to analyse different land management and climate change scenarios. The results of this study and scenario analysis seek to identify potential nutrient sensitive areas and support land use planning and policy decisions.

  1. Particle Reduction Strategies - PAREST. PM10-cause analysis based on hypothetical emissions scenarios. Sub-report; Strategien zur Verminderung der Feinstaubbelastung - PAREST. PM10-Ursachenanalyse auf der Basis hypothetischer Emissionsszenarien. Teilbericht

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stern, Rainer [Freie Univ. Berlin (Germany). Inst. fuer Meteorologie, Troposphaerische Umweltforschung

    2013-06-15

    In this report, a PM10 cause analysis is presented, which provides an estimation of the extent to which the emitted substances from ten different source sectors are responsible for the calculated PM10 concentrations in Germany (PM = particulate matter). [German] In diesem Bericht wird eine PM10-Ursachenanalyse vorgestellt, die eine Abschaetzung liefert, in welchem Umfang die in Deutschland von den verschiedenen Verursachergruppen emittierten Stoffe fuer die in Deutschland berechneten PM10-Konzentrationen verantwortlich sind.

  2. Impacts of Mega-droughts on Water and Food Security in the Indo-Gangetic Plains: A Paleoclimate Scenario Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, T.; Pitois, G.; Ringler, C.; Wang, D.; Rosegrant, M. W.

    2014-12-01

    Spanning over Pakistan, northern India, Nepal, and Bangladesh, the Indo-Gangetic Plains (IGP) is the home of several hundred million people and the "bread basket" for much of South Asia. The flat terrain, fertile soils, and favorable climate of the IGP make it agriculturally productive. However prolonged droughts caused by consecutive monsoon failures can seriously affect crop production and social wellbeing, in particular for the eastern part of the plains where agriculture remains largely rain-fed. Severe droughts were observed in the IGP historically, and recent paleoclimate studies reveal that more severe and long-lasting "mega-droughts" had happened in the distant past. Agricultural losses from major droughts can dramatically affect food systems and increase the vulnerability of resource-poor people given the delicate balance between food supply and demand under growing natural resource scarcity. To estimate the potential impacts of "mega-droughts" on the water and food systems in the IGP, we develop worst-case drought scenarios through inverse modeling of tree-ring-based PDSI reconstruction that covers the period 1300-1899 (A.D.), and analyze these historic mega-drought scenarios using IFPRI's IMPACT global water and food projections model. The base year of the IMPACT model is parameterized using socioeconomic and engineering data that reflect today's water management and infrastructure, agricultural technologies, population, income, and market institutions. The base year simulation is validated against observations to ensure model fidelity. Anticipated changes of the above factors in the future out to 2050 are specified using demographic and economic growth projections and literature data. Model simulation results represent the consequences of mega-droughts in the IGP given technological and socioeconomic conditions of today and in the future. We also explore policy options for increasing the resilience of water and food systems in the IGP, through scenario

  3. Vulnerability Assessment of Rural Social-ecological System Based on Scenario Analysis:A Case Study of Zhonglianchuan Town in Yuzhong County%基于情景分析的西北农村社会-生态系统脆弱性研究——以榆中县中连川乡为例

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    杨新军; 张慧; 王子侨

    2015-01-01

    The vulnerability of human-environmental system is the key for geographical research. Social-eco-logical system(SES)and its resilience research provide a new idea and an integrated theoretical framework for Human-environmental analysis. In the latest decade, the objects of vulnerability study gradually transform from the ecological system to the Socio-ecological Systems, that is, the human-environmental coupled sys-tems. As Social-ecological systems have multiple-scale panarchy and multiple differing stakeholders are in-volved, the traditional methodology for assessing vulnerability of Socio-ecological Systems could not explain the uncertainty about the very system. In this article, Zhonglianhuan Town in Yuzhong County of Gansu Prov-ince was taken as the study area, a field survey about contextual interview with multiple differing stakeholders which include the farmers, local managers and academic researchers were conducted, the acceptability of dif-ferent people toward different scenarios could be measured as an indicator of their fragility. Then, the vulnera-bility of rural Social-ecological system was analyzed. The two key drivers of the rural SES were climatic drought and government policy by using scenario analysis, whose interactions decided the future of local SES. Then, with the cross-impact analysis, three scenarios ( S1, S2 and S3) were filtered which is most likely to hap-pen in the future. Based on the scenario analysis, the acceptability of stakeholders toward the three different scenarios was measured combining with social-ecological matrix, and then the vulnerability in the three diffi-dent scenarios was judged. The result indicates that, In scenario 1, Drought was alleviated and there were poli-cy support, the vulnerability of farmers and local managers is low;in scenario 2 (Drought was alleviated but there was no policy support)and 3(there was policy support but Drought occurred most frequently), the accept-ability of farmers and local managers was

  4. COMPARISON AND ANALYSIS OF GREEDY FORWARDING USING BNGF METHOD IN DIFFERENT VEHICULAR TRAFFIC SCENARIOS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ram Shringar Raw

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available A Vehicular Ad hoc Network (VANET is a most popular application of Mobile Ad hoc Networks (MANETs. A lot of research work around the world is being conducted to design an efficient routing protocol for VANETs. In this paper, we examine the significance of Greedy Forwarding with Border Node based approach for VANETs. We propose a position based routing protocol to forward packet to the border nodes of the forwarding nodeas the next-hop node. This protocol is called Border Node based Greedy Forwarding (BNGF since it uses border nodes with greedy forwarding. We categorize BNGF as BNGF-H for highway and BNGF-C for city traffic scenario. We have simulated this protocol using NS-2 simulator and evaluated the performance in terms of end-to-end delay and packet delivery ratio. We have compared both the methods for highway and city traffic scenarios. The results clearly show that the end-toend delay for BNGF-C is significantly lower and packet delivery ratio is higher than BNGF-H.

  5. Emergence of the First Catalytic Oligonucleotides in a Formamide-Based Origin Scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Šponer, Judit E; Šponer, Jiří; Nováková, Olga; Brabec, Viktor; Šedo, Ondrej; Zdráhal, Zbyněk; Costanzo, Giovanna; Pino, Samanta; Saladino, Raffaele; Di Mauro, Ernesto

    2016-03-07

    50 years after the historical Miller-Urey experiment, the formamide-based scenario is perhaps the most powerful concurrent hypothesis for the origin of life on our planet besides the traditional HCN-based concept. The information accumulated during the last 15 years in this topic is astonishingly growing and nowadays the formamide-based model represents one of the most complete and coherent pathways leading from simple prebiotic precursors up to the first catalytically active RNA molecules. In this work, we overview the major events of this long pathway that have emerged from recent experimental and theoretical studies, mainly concentrating on the mechanistic, methodological, and structural aspects of this research.

  6. Multi-Purpose Avionic Architecture for Vision Based Navigation Systems for EDL and Surface Mobility Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tramutola, A.; Paltro, D.; Cabalo Perucha, M. P.; Paar, G.; Steiner, J.; Barrio, A. M.

    2015-09-01

    Vision Based Navigation (VBNAV) has been identified as a valid technology to support space exploration because it can improve autonomy and safety of space missions. Several mission scenarios can benefit from the VBNAV: Rendezvous & Docking, Fly-Bys, Interplanetary cruise, Entry Descent and Landing (EDL) and Planetary Surface exploration. For some of them VBNAV can improve the accuracy in state estimation as additional relative navigation sensor or as absolute navigation sensor. For some others, like surface mobility and terrain exploration for path identification and planning, VBNAV is mandatory. This paper presents the general avionic architecture of a Vision Based System as defined in the frame of the ESA R&T study “Multi-purpose Vision-based Navigation System Engineering Model - part 1 (VisNav-EM-1)” with special focus on the surface mobility application.

  7. Should big cities grow? Scenario-based cellular automata urban growth modeling and policy applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ChengHe Guan

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The formation of ‘Urban Networks’ has become a wide-spread phenomenon around the world. In the study of metropolitan regions, there are competing or diverging views about management and control of environmental and land-use factors as well as about scales and arrangements of settlements. Especially in China, these matters alongside of regulatory aspects, infrastructure applications, and resource allocations, are important because of population concentrations and the overlapping of urban areas with other land resources. On the other hand, the increasing sophistication of models operating on iterative computational power and widely-available spatial information and analytical techniques make it possible to simulate and investigate the spatial distribution of urban territories at a regional scale. This research applies a scenario-based Cellular Automata model to a case study of the Changjiang Delta Region, which produces useful and predictive scenario-based projections within the region, using quantitative methods and baseline conditions that address issues of regional urban development. The contribution of the research includes the improvement of computer simulation of urban growth, the application of urban form and other indices to evaluate complex urban conditions, and a heightened understanding of the performance of an urban network in the Changjiang Delta Region composed of big, medium, and small-sized cities and towns.

  8. Model based systems engineering (MBSE) applied to Radio Aurora Explorer (RAX) CubeSat mission operational scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spangelo, S. C.; Cutler, J.; Anderson, L.; Fosse, E.; Cheng, L.; Yntema, R.; Bajaj, M.; Delp, C.; Cole, B.; Soremekum, G.; Kaslow, D.

    Small satellites are more highly resource-constrained by mass, power, volume, delivery timelines, and financial cost relative to their larger counterparts. Small satellites are operationally challenging because subsystem functions are coupled and constrained by the limited available commodities (e.g. data, energy, and access times to ground resources). Furthermore, additional operational complexities arise because small satellite components are physically integrated, which may yield thermal or radio frequency interference. In this paper, we extend our initial Model Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) framework developed for a small satellite mission by demonstrating the ability to model different behaviors and scenarios. We integrate several simulation tools to execute SysML-based behavior models, including subsystem functions and internal states of the spacecraft. We demonstrate utility of this approach to drive the system analysis and design process. We demonstrate applicability of the simulation environment to capture realistic satellite operational scenarios, which include energy collection, the data acquisition, and downloading to ground stations. The integrated modeling environment enables users to extract feasibility, performance, and robustness metrics. This enables visualization of both the physical states (e.g. position, attitude) and functional states (e.g. operating points of various subsystems) of the satellite for representative mission scenarios. The modeling approach presented in this paper offers satellite designers and operators the opportunity to assess the feasibility of vehicle and network parameters, as well as the feasibility of operational schedules. This will enable future missions to benefit from using these models throughout the full design, test, and fly cycle. In particular, vehicle and network parameters and schedules can be verified prior to being implemented, during mission operations, and can also be updated in near real-time with oper

  9. Tools for analysis and scenario-development for climate impacts applications from large multi-model ensembles data distributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ammann, C. M.; Vigh, J. L.; Brown, B.; Gilleland, E.; Fowler, T.; Kaatz, L.; Buja, L.; Rood, R. B.; Barsugli, J. J.; Guentchev, G.

    2013-12-01

    For climate change impact applications to properly incorporate the current state of science and its associated broad range of data, good intentions are commonly confronted by the realities of interoperability issues, by the lack of transparency of assumptions behind complex modeling and experimental design frameworks, and even by ordinary data handling and management hurdles due to the enormous volumes of data. Yet, well-informed choices in data selection and insightful uncertainty exploration need to be able to draw from all this information to develop suitable products and indices for the applications. Because climate impacts are often complex and require careful integration into a multi-stressor environment, simple one-way delivery of climate data will often miss the specific needs on the ground. Product development and knowledge integration are a inherently iterative processes, requiring direct collaborations between the scientists and the application specialists. To be successful in efficiently and effectively extracting useful information from the climate change information archives, efficient tools for analysis and scenario-development are necessary. Standardized intercomparison of climate data is a necessary foundation to identify strategies to investigate probabilistic outcomes and to explore process-driven outcomes that are likely, plausible or maybe just possible. Based on the extensive evaluation tools for downscaled climate data provided by the National Climate Predictions and Projections (NCPP) platform, we illustrate analysis and scenario-development tools that help explore different sources of uncertainty and allow for sampling of realistic time-series to assess potential impacts for targeted applications. This work combines rigorous evaluation and validation of climate projection data and facilitates assessments of scenarios in context of observed variability and change.

  10. Diffuse hydrological mass transport through catchments: scenario analysis of coupled physical and biogeochemical uncertainty effects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Persson

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper quantifies and maps the effects of coupled physical and biogeochemical variability on diffuse hydrological mass transport through and from catchments. It further develops a scenario analysis approach and investigates its applicability for handling uncertainties about both physical and biogeochemical variability and their different possible cross-correlation. The approach enables identification of conservative assumptions, uncertainty ranges, as well as pollutant/nutrient release locations and situations for which further investigations are most needed in order to reduce the most important uncertainty effects. The present scenario results provide different statistical and geographic distributions of advective travel times for diffuse hydrological mass transport. The geographic mapping can be used to identify potential hotspot areas with large mass loading to downstream surface and coastal waters, as well as their opposite, potential lowest-impact areas within the catchment. Results for alternative travel time distributions show that neglect or underestimation of the physical advection variability, and in particular of those transport pathways with much shorter than average advective solute travel times, can lead to substantial underestimation of pollutant and nutrient loads to downstream surface and coastal waters. This is particularly true for relatively high catchment-characteristic product of average attenuation rate and average advective travel time, for which mass delivery would be near zero under assumed transport homogeneity but can be orders of magnitude higher for variable transport conditions. A scenario of high advection variability, with a significant fraction of relatively short travel times, combined with a relevant average biogeochemical mass attenuation rate, emerges consistently from the present results as a generally reasonable, conservative assumption for estimating maximum diffuse mass loading, when the prevailing

  11. Evaluating adaptation options for urban flooding based on new high-end emission scenario regional climate model simulations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Leonardsen, L.; Madsen, Henrik

    2015-01-01

    a regional climate model projection forced to a global temperature increase of 6 degrees C in 2100 as well as a projection based on a high radiative forcing scenario (RCP8.5). With these scenarios, projected impacts of extreme precipitation increase significantly. For extreme sea surges, the impacts do...... by almost 4 and 8 times the current EAD for the RCP8.5 and 6 degrees C scenario, respectively. For both hazards, business-as-usual is not a possible scenario, since even in the absence of policy-driven changes, significant autonomous adaptation is likely to occur. Copenhagen has developed an adaptation plan...... is significantly reduced (corresponding to 0.6-1.0 and 1.2-2.1 times the current EAD for the RCP8.5 and 6 degrees C scenario, respectively)....

  12. Systems Analysis, Scenario Construction and Consequence Analysis Definition for SITE-94

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chapman, N.A.; Robinson, P. [Intera Information Technologies Ltd (United Kingdom); Andersson, Johan; Wingefors, S. [Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate, Stockholm (Sweden); Skagius, K.; Wiborgh, M. [Kemakta Konsult AB, Stockholm (Sweden); Wene, C.O. [Chalmers Inst. of Technology, Goeteborg (Sweden)

    1995-06-01

    SITE-94 is a performance assessment of a hypothetical repository at a real site. The main objective of the project is to determine how site specific data should be assimilated into the performance assessment process and to evaluate how uncertainties inherent in site characterization will influence performance assessment results. This report uses scenario definition work as a vehicle to introduce the systems approach to performance assessment which has been developed and tested in SITE-94 and which constitutes one of the main advances made during the project. The results of the application of the methodology are presented separately, in the SITE-94 Summary Report. 40 refs, 21 figs, 12 tabs.

  13. Basin-scale Modeling of Geological Carbon Sequestration: Model Complexity, Injection Scenario and Sensitivity Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, X.; Bandilla, K.; Celia, M. A.; Bachu, S.

    2013-12-01

    Geological carbon sequestration can significantly contribute to climate-change mitigation only if it is deployed at a very large scale. This means that injection scenarios must occur, and be analyzed, at the basin scale. Various mathematical models of different complexity may be used to assess the fate of injected CO2 and/or resident brine. These models span the range from multi-dimensional, multi-phase numerical simulators to simple single-phase analytical solutions. In this study, we consider a range of models, all based on vertically-integrated governing equations, to predict the basin-scale pressure response to specific injection scenarios. The Canadian section of the Basal Aquifer is used as a test site to compare the different modeling approaches. The model domain covers an area of approximately 811,000 km2, and the total injection rate is 63 Mt/yr, corresponding to 9 locations where large point sources have been identified. Predicted areas of critical pressure exceedance are used as a comparison metric among the different modeling approaches. Comparison of the results shows that single-phase numerical models may be good enough to predict the pressure response over a large aquifer; however, a simple superposition of semi-analytical or analytical solutions is not sufficiently accurate because spatial variability of formation properties plays an important role in the problem, and these variations are not captured properly with simple superposition. We consider two different injection scenarios: injection at the source locations and injection at locations with more suitable aquifer properties. Results indicate that in formations with significant spatial variability of properties, strong variations in injectivity among the different source locations can be expected, leading to the need to transport the captured CO2 to suitable injection locations, thereby necessitating development of a pipeline network. We also consider the sensitivity of porosity and

  14. Scenario-based Simulation of Criticality Concerning the Transportation of Dangerous Goods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Badea Dorel

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The critical infrastructure protection domain, through its social implications, is a relatively new research topic, and a science in this regard is not setup yet. Its complexity, through the operational subsumed areas, through the interdependencies and cascading possible effects, through the many facets for investigation, is a special one which imposes specific approaches. This paper intends to continue the investigations in this field, which are conducted in an individual manner or by research teams, by authors with concerns in this regard who agreed to allocate to the topical subject a special attention based on its importance, beyond an exclusive approach – as a special topic. This time, there are brought into attention the issues related to chemical industry sector correlated with actual associated implications of necessary transportation activities in this field. Simulation-based scenario is the main technique employed as a research methodology by using dedicated software.

  15. Methodology To Define Drought Management Scenarios Based On Accumulated Future Projections Of Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haro-Monteagudo, David; Solera-Solera, Abel; Andreu-Álvarez, Joaquín

    2014-05-01

    Drought is a serious threat to many water resources systems in the world. Especially to those in which the equilibrium between resources availability and water uses is very fragile, making that deviation below normality compromises the capacity of the system to cope with all the demands and environmental requirements. Since droughts are not isolated events but instead they develop through time in what could be considered a creeping behavior, it is very difficult to determine when an episode starts and how long will it last. Because this is a major concern for water managers and society in general, scientific research has strived to develop indices that allow evaluating the risk of a drought event occurrence. These indices often have as basis previous and current state variables of the system that combined between them supply decision making responsible with an indication of the risk of being in a situation of drought, normally through the definition of a drought scenario situation. While this way of proceeding has found to be effective in many systems, there are cases in which indicators systems fail to define the appropriate on-going drought scenario early enough to start measures that allowed to minimize the possible impacts. This is the case, for example, of systems with high seasonal precipitation variability. The use of risk assessment models to evaluate future possible states of the system becomes handy in cases like the previous one, although they are not limited to such systems. We present a method to refine the drought scenario definition within a water resources system. To implement this methodology, we use a risk assessment model generalized to water resources systems based in the stochastic generation of multiple possible future streamflows generation and the simulation of the system from a Monte-Carlo approach. We do this assessment every month of the year up to the end of the hydrologic year that normally corresponds with the end of the irrigation

  16. Analysis of Reactor Deployment Scenarios with Introduction of SFR Breakeven Reactors and Burners Using DANESS Code

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Young In; Hahn, Do Hee; Won, Byung Chool; Lee, Dong Uk

    2008-01-15

    Using the DANESS code newly employed for future scenario analysis, reactor deployment scenarios with the introduction of sodium cooled fast reactors(SFRs) having different conversion ratios in the existing PWRs dominant nuclear fleet have been analyzed to find the SFR deployment strategy for replacing PWRs with the view of a spent fuel reduction and an efficient uranium utilization through its reuse in a closed nuclear fuel cycle. Descriptions of the DANESS code and how to use are briefly given from the viewpoint of its first application. The use of SFRs and recycling of TRUs by reusing PWR spent fuel leads to the substantial reduction of the amount of PWR spent fuel and environmental burden by decreasing radiotoxicity of high level waste, and a significant improvement on the natural uranium resources utilization. A continuous deployment of burners effectively decreases the amount of PWR spent fuel accumulation, thus lightening the burden for PWR spent fuel management. An introduction of breakeven reactors effectively reduces the uranium demand through producing excess TRU during the operation, thus contributing to a sustainable nuclear power development. With SFR introduction starting in 2040, PWRs will remain as a main power reactor type till 2100 and SFRs will be in support of waste minimization and fuel utilization.

  17. Remote-sensing based approach to forecast habitat quality under climate change scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Requena-Mullor, Juan M.; López, Enrique; Castro, Antonio J.; Alcaraz-Segura, Domingo; Castro, Hermelindo; Reyes, Andrés; Cabello, Javier

    2017-01-01

    As climate change is expected to have a significant impact on species distributions, there is an urgent challenge to provide reliable information to guide conservation biodiversity policies. In addressing this challenge, we propose a remote sensing-based approach to forecast the future habitat quality for European badger, a species not abundant and at risk of local extinction in the arid environments of southeastern Spain, by incorporating environmental variables related with the ecosystem functioning and correlated with climate and land use. Using ensemble prediction methods, we designed global spatial distribution models for the distribution range of badger using presence-only data and climate variables. Then, we constructed regional models for an arid region in the southeast Spain using EVI (Enhanced Vegetation Index) derived variables and weighting the pseudo-absences with the global model projections applied to this region. Finally, we forecast the badger potential spatial distribution in the time period 2071–2099 based on IPCC scenarios incorporating the uncertainty derived from the predicted values of EVI-derived variables. By including remotely sensed descriptors of the temporal dynamics and spatial patterns of ecosystem functioning into spatial distribution models, results suggest that future forecast is less favorable for European badgers than not including them. In addition, change in spatial pattern of habitat suitability may become higher than when forecasts are based just on climate variables. Since the validity of future forecast only based on climate variables is currently questioned, conservation policies supported by such information could have a biased vision and overestimate or underestimate the potential changes in species distribution derived from climate change. The incorporation of ecosystem functional attributes derived from remote sensing in the modeling of future forecast may contribute to the improvement of the detection of ecological

  18. Remote-sensing based approach to forecast habitat quality under climate change scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Requena-Mullor, Juan M; López, Enrique; Castro, Antonio J; Alcaraz-Segura, Domingo; Castro, Hermelindo; Reyes, Andrés; Cabello, Javier

    2017-01-01

    As climate change is expected to have a significant impact on species distributions, there is an urgent challenge to provide reliable information to guide conservation biodiversity policies. In addressing this challenge, we propose a remote sensing-based approach to forecast the future habitat quality for European badger, a species not abundant and at risk of local extinction in the arid environments of southeastern Spain, by incorporating environmental variables related with the ecosystem functioning and correlated with climate and land use. Using ensemble prediction methods, we designed global spatial distribution models for the distribution range of badger using presence-only data and climate variables. Then, we constructed regional models for an arid region in the southeast Spain using EVI (Enhanced Vegetation Index) derived variables and weighting the pseudo-absences with the global model projections applied to this region. Finally, we forecast the badger potential spatial distribution in the time period 2071-2099 based on IPCC scenarios incorporating the uncertainty derived from the predicted values of EVI-derived variables. By including remotely sensed descriptors of the temporal dynamics and spatial patterns of ecosystem functioning into spatial distribution models, results suggest that future forecast is less favorable for European badgers than not including them. In addition, change in spatial pattern of habitat suitability may become higher than when forecasts are based just on climate variables. Since the validity of future forecast only based on climate variables is currently questioned, conservation policies supported by such information could have a biased vision and overestimate or underestimate the potential changes in species distribution derived from climate change. The incorporation of ecosystem functional attributes derived from remote sensing in the modeling of future forecast may contribute to the improvement of the detection of ecological

  19. Multimedia Scenario Based Learning Programme for Enhancing the English Language Efficiency among Primary School Students

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Navnath Tupe

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available This research was undertaken with a view to assess the deficiencies in English language among Primary School Children and to develop Multimedia Scenario Based Learning Programme (MSBLP for mastery of English language which required special attention and effective treatment. The experimental study with pretest, post-test control group design was employed to carry out the experiment of MSBLP in a sample school and to determine its efficacy for enhancing English Language skills among Primary School Students. In India, the Central and State Government has made great efforts to Education for All (EFA and initiated several programs to provide universal access to education, to reduce the drop-out rates and ensure achievement of minimum levels of learning. To our surprise the scenario had not much changed inside the classroom even implementing several programmes. However, it was still unclear how effective was the delivery of the course content in the classroom. An intensive training for teachers on a regular basis on a state-wide scale may not be feasible again and again. Hence, multimedia offers pragmatic solutions So that this research paper devoted to explore the issues of learning English and describes the creation of MSBLP as a solution in scientific manner.

  20. Scenario-based water resources planning for utilities in the Lake Victoria region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mehta, Vishal K.; Aslam, Omar; Dale, Larry; Miller, Norman; Purkey, David R.

    Urban areas in the Lake Victoria (LV) region are experiencing the highest growth rates in Africa. As efforts to meet increasing demand accelerate, integrated water resources management (IWRM) tools provide opportunities for utilities and other stakeholders to develop a planning framework comprehensive enough to include short term (e.g. landuse change), as well as longer term (e.g. climate change) scenarios. This paper presents IWRM models built using the Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) decision support system, for three towns in the LV region - Bukoba (Tanzania), Masaka (Uganda), and Kisii (Kenya). Each model was calibrated under current system performance based on site visits, utility reporting and interviews. Projected water supply, demand, revenues and costs were then evaluated against a combination of climate, demographic and infrastructure scenarios up to 2050. Our results show that water supply in all three towns is currently infrastructure limited; achieving existing design capacity could meet most projected demand until 2020s in Masaka beyond which new supply and conservation strategies would be needed. In Bukoba, reducing leakages would provide little performance improvement in the short-term, but doubling capacity would meet all demands until 2050. In Kisii, major infrastructure investment is urgently needed. In Masaka, streamflow simulations show that wetland sources could satisfy all demand until 2050, but at the cost of almost no water downstream of the intake. These models demonstrate the value of IWRM tools for developing water management plans that integrate hydroclimatology-driven supply to demand projections on a single platform.

  1. Methods and tools for developing virtual territories for scenario analysis of agro-ecosystems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlo Giupponi

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Land evaluation has a leading role in the sustainable management of natural resources. By integrating information from different disciplinary fields and at different spatial scales, concerning soils, climate, vegetation, geomorphology, economic and social drivers, it assesses alternative land uses with consideration of socio-economic and environmental objectives. Over time, the increasing complexity of such an analysis has shown the limits of traditional approaches proposed by Food and Agricultural Organisation and other international institutions in the second half of the 20th century, to deal with relatively new phenomena, such as those related to global change. Among the recent methodological proposals, agro-ecological zoning (AEZ has gained increasing attention of scholars. Global change affects all the variables to be considered for land evaluation and in particular those affecting land productivity and economic consequences, but only rarely they have been jointly considered. Moreover, the possibility of simulating agro-ecosystems over long-time periods in many parts of the world is limited by the great efforts required for data acquisition and the many sources of errors. Our study aims to demonstrate the opportunity to explore the use of virtual territories as analogues of controlled field experiments, in order to carry out scenario analysis of agro-ecosystems, which may exist or not at the moment. Virtual territories exhibit morphological, ecological and land cover features statistically similar to selected existing territories. Provided this basic prerequisite is met, a virtual territory is built as a coherent set of geographic information system layers and databases on which the effects of global change phenomena (e.g., climate and land use changes can be simulated under different scenarios. The advantages are: the possibility of having full control of the experimental conditions; the possibility of setting up factorial experiments with

  2. Techno-Economic Analysis of Biochemical Scenarios for Production of Cellulosic Ethanol

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kazi, F. K.; Fortman, J.; Anex, R.; Kothandaraman, G.; Hsu, D.; Aden, A.; Dutta, A.

    2010-06-01

    A techno-economic analysis on the production of cellulosic ethanol by fermentation was conducted to understand the viability of liquid biofuel production processes within the next 5-8 years. Initially, 35 technologies were reviewed, then a two-step down selection was performed to choose scenarios to be evaluated in a more detailed economic analysis. The lignocellulosic ethanol process was selected because it is well studied and portions of the process have been tested at pilot scales. Seven process variations were selected and examined in detail. Process designs were constrained to public data published in 2007 or earlier, without projecting for future process improvements. Economic analysis was performed for an 'nth plant' (mature technology) to obtain total investment and product value (PV). Sensitivity analysis was performed on PV to assess the impact of variations in process and economic parameters. Results show that the modeled dilute acid pretreatment process without any downstream process variation had the lowest PV of $3.40/gal of ethanol ($5.15/gallon of gasoline equivalent) in 2007 dollars. Sensitivity analysis shows that PV is most sensitive to feedstock and enzyme costs.

  3. Analysis of LOCA Scenarios in the NIST Research Reactor Before and After Fuel Conversion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baek, J. S. [Brookhaven National Lab. (BNL), Upton, NY (United States); Cheng, L. Y. [Brookhaven National Lab. (BNL), Upton, NY (United States); Diamond, D. [Brookhaven National Lab. (BNL), Upton, NY (United States)

    2015-08-30

    An analysis has been done of hypothetical loss-of-coolant-accidents (LOCAs) in the research reactor (NBSR) at the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST). The purpose of the analysis is to determine if the peak clad temperature remains below the Safety Limit, which is the blister temperature for the fuel. The configuration of the NBSR considered in the analysis is that projected for the future when changes will be made so that shutdown pumps do not operate when a LOCA signal is detected. The analysis was done for the present core with high-enriched uranium (HEU) fuel and with the proposed low-enriched uranium (LEU) fuel that would be used when the NBSR is converted from one to the other. The analysis consists of two parts. The first examines how the water would drain from the primary system following a break and the possibility for the loss of coolant from within the fuel element flow channels. This work is performed using the TRACE system thermal-hydraulic code. The second looks at the fuel clad temperature as a function of time given that the water may have drained from many of the flow channels and the water in the vessel is in a quasi-equilibrium state. The temperature behavior is investigated using the three-dimensional heat conduction code HEATING7.3. The results in all scenarios considered for both HEU and LEU fuel show that the peak clad temperature remains below the blister temperature.

  4. Scenario Analysis of Peak Demand Savings for Commercial Buildings with Thermal Mass in California

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yin, Rongxin; Kiliccote, Sila; Piette, Mary Ann; Parrish, Kristen

    2010-05-14

    This paper reports on the potential impact of demand response (DR) strategies in commercial buildings in California based on the Demand Response Quick Assessment Tool (DRQAT), which uses EnergyPlus simulation prototypes for office and retail buildings. The study describes the potential impact of building size, thermal mass, climate, and DR strategies on demand savings in commercial buildings. Sensitivity analyses are performed to evaluate how these factors influence the demand shift and shed during the peak period. The whole-building peak demand of a commercial building with high thermal mass in a hot climate zone can be reduced by 30percent using an optimized demand response strategy. Results are summarized for various simulation scenarios designed to help owners and managers understand the potential savings for demand response deployment. Simulated demand savings under various scenarios were compared to field-measured data in numerous climate zones, allowing calibration of the prototype models. The simulation results are compared to the peak demand data from the Commercial End-Use Survey for commercial buildings in California. On the economic side, a set of electricity rates are used to evaluate the impact of the DR strategies on economic savings for different thermal mass and climate conditions. Our comparison of recent simulation to field test results provides an understanding of the DR potential in commercial buildings.

  5. Supporting Problem Solving with Case-Stories Learning Scenario and Video-based Collaborative Learning Technology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chun Hu

    2004-04-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we suggest that case-based resources, which are used for assisting cognition during problem solving, can be structured around the work of narratives in social cultural psychology. Theories and other research methods have proposed structures within narratives and stories which may be useful to the design of case-based resources. Moreover, embedded within cases are stories which are contextually rich, supporting the epistemological groundings of situated cognition. Therefore the purposes of this paper are to discuss possible frameworks of case-stories; derive design principles as to “what” constitutes a good case story or narrative; and suggest how technology can support story-based learning. We adopt video-based Computer-Supported Collaborative Learning (CSCL technology to support problem solving with case-stories learning scenarios. Our hypothesis in this paper is that well-designed case-based resources are able to aid in the cognitive processes undergirding problem solving and meaning making. We also suggest the use of an emerging video-based collaborative learning technology to support such an instructional strategy.

  6. System analysis with improved thermo-mechanical fuel rod models for modeling current and advanced LWR materials in accident scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porter, Ian Edward

    A nuclear reactor systems code has the ability to model the system response in an accident scenario based on known initial conditions at the onset of the transient. However, there has been a tendency for these codes to lack the detailed thermo-mechanical fuel rod response models needed for accurate prediction of fuel rod failure. This proposed work will couple today's most widely used steady-state (FRAPCON) and transient (FRAPTRAN) fuel rod models with a systems code TRACE for best-estimate modeling of system response in accident scenarios such as a loss of coolant accident (LOCA). In doing so, code modifications will be made to model gamma heating in LWRs during steady-state and accident conditions and to improve fuel rod thermal/mechanical analysis by allowing axial nodalization of burnup-dependent phenomena such as swelling, cladding creep and oxidation. With the ability to model both burnup-dependent parameters and transient fuel rod response, a fuel dispersal study will be conducted using a hypothetical accident scenario under both PWR and BWR conditions to determine the amount of fuel dispersed under varying conditions. Due to the fuel fragmentation size and internal rod pressure both being dependent on burnup, this analysis will be conducted at beginning, middle and end of cycle to examine the effects that cycle time can play on fuel rod failure and dispersal. Current fuel rod and system codes used by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) are compilations of legacy codes with only commonly used light water reactor materials, Uranium Dioxide (UO2), Mixed Oxide (U/PuO 2) and zirconium alloys. However, the events at Fukushima Daiichi and Three Mile Island accident have shown the need for exploration into advanced materials possessing improved accident tolerance. This work looks to further modify the NRC codes to include silicon carbide (SiC), an advanced cladding material proposed by current DOE funded research on accident tolerant fuels (ATF). Several

  7. Capacity Model and Constraints Analysis for Integrated Remote Wireless Sensor and Satellite Network in Emergency Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Zhang

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available This article investigates the capacity problem of an integrated remote wireless sensor and satellite network (IWSSN in emergency scenarios. We formulate a general model to evaluate the remote sensor and satellite network capacity. Compared to most existing works for ground networks, the proposed model is time varying and space oriented. To capture the characteristics of a practical network, we sift through major capacity-impacting constraints and analyze the influence of these constraints. Specifically, we combine the geometric satellite orbit model and satellite tool kit (STK engineering software to quantify the trends of the capacity constraints. Our objective in analyzing these trends is to provide insights and design guidelines for optimizing the integrated remote wireless sensor and satellite network schedules. Simulation results validate the theoretical analysis of capacity trends and show the optimization opportunities of the IWSSN.

  8. A triangular fuzzy TOPSIS-based approach for the application of water technologies in different emergency water supply scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qu, Jianhua; Meng, Xianlin; Yu, Huan; You, Hong

    2016-09-01

    Because of the increasing frequency and intensity of unexpected natural disasters, providing safe drinking water for the affected population following a disaster has become a global challenge of growing concern. An onsite water supply technology that is portable, mobile, or modular is a more suitable and sustainable solution for the victims than transporting bottled water. In recent years, various water techniques, such as membrane-assisted technologies, have been proposed and successfully implemented in many places. Given the diversity of techniques available, the current challenge is how to scientifically identify the optimum options for different disaster scenarios. Hence, a fuzzy triangular-based multi-criteria, group decision-making tool was developed in this research. The approach was then applied to the selection of the most appropriate water technologies corresponding to the different emergency water supply scenarios. The results show this tool capable of facilitating scientific analysis in the evaluation and selection of emergency water technologies for enduring security drinking water supply in disaster relief.

  9. Tx scenario analysis of FBMC based LDM system

    OpenAIRE

    Soonki Jo; Jong-Soo Seo

    2015-01-01

    Filter bank multiple carrier (FBMC) technology is one of the alternative solutions for multicarrier modulation. FBMC does not need cyclic prefix (CP) and guard band utilized for orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM) and CP and guard band cause loss of spectral efficiency. FBMC features offset QAM (OQAM) and band-limited filtering on each subcarrier, which eliminate the need of CP and guard band. FBMC filtering could maintain the orthogonality in a real signal domain by using well ...

  10. Ship accessibility predictions for the Arctic Ocean based on IPCC CO2 emission scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oh, Jai-Ho; Woo, Sumin; Yang, Sin-Il

    2017-02-01

    Changes in the extent of Arctic sea ice, which have resulted from climate change, offer new opportunities to use the Northern Sea Route (NSR) and Northwest Passage (NWP) for shipping. However, choosing to navigate the Arctic Ocean remains challenging due to the limited accessibility of ships and the balance between economic gain and potential risk. As a result, more precise and detailed information on both weather and sea ice change in the Arctic are required. In this study, a high-resolution global AGCM was used to provide detailed information on the extent and thickness of Arctic sea ice. For this simulation, we have simulated the AMIP-type simulation for the present-day climate during 31 years from 1979 to 2009 with observed SST and Sea Ice concentration. For the future climate projection, we have performed the historical climate during 1979-2005 and subsequently the future climate projection during 2010-2099 with mean of four CMIP5 models due to the two Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCP 8.5 and RCP 4.5). First, the AMIP-type simulation was evaluated by comparison with observations from the Hadley Centre sea-ice and Sea Surface Temperature (HadlSST) dataset. The model reflects the maximum (in March) and minimum (in September) sea ice extent and annual cycle. Based on this validation, the future sea ice extents show the decreasing trend for both the maximum and minimum seasons and RCP 8.5 shows more sharply decreasing patterns of sea ice than RCP 4.5. Under both scenarios, ships classified as Polar Class (PC) 3 and Open-Water (OW) were predicted to have the largest and smallest number of ship-accessible days (in any given year) for the NSR and NWP, respectively. Based on the RCP 8.5 scenario, the projections suggest that after 2070, PC3 and PC6 vessels will have year-round access across to the Arctic Ocean. In contrast, OW vessels will continue to have a seasonal handicap, inhibiting their ability to pass through the NSR and NWP.

  11. A scenario-based study on information flow and collaboration patterns in disaster management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sagun, Aysu; Bouchlaghem, Dino; Anumba, Chimay J

    2009-04-01

    Disaster management (DM) is a continuous, highly collaborative process involving governments, DM organisations, responders, the construction sector, and the general public. Most research approaches to DM include the development of information and communication technologies (ICT) to support the collaboration process rather than the creation of a collaboration process to provide information flows and patterns. An Intelligent Disaster Collaboration System (IDCS) is introduced in this paper as a conceptual model to integrate ICT into DM and the mitigation process and to enhance collaboration. The framework is applicable to the collaboration process at the local, regional and national levels. Within this context, the deployment of ICT tools in DM is explored and scenario-based case studies on flooding and terrorism--examples of natural and human-induced disasters, respectively--are presented. Conclusions are drawn regarding the differences found in collaboration patterns and ICT used during natural and human-induced disasters and the differences between currently available ICT and proposed ICT.

  12. Elements of Scenario-Based Learning on Suicidal Patient Care Using Real-Time Video.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Chuehfen; Lee, Hueying; Hsu, Shuhui; Shu, Inmei

    2016-01-01

    This study aims understanding of students' learning experiences when receiving scenario-based learning combined with real-time video. Videos that recorded student nurses intervention with a suicidal standardized patient (SP) were replayed immediately as teaching materials. Videos clips and field notes from ten classes were analysed. Investigators and method triangulation were used to boost the robustness of the study. Three key elements, emotional involvement, concretizing of the teaching material and substitute learning were identified. Emotions were evoked among the SP, the student performer and the students who were observing, thus facilitating a learning effect. Concretizing of the teaching material refers to students were able to focus on the discussions using visual and verbal information. Substitute learning occurred when the students watching the videos, both the strengths and weaknesses represented were similar to those that would be likely to occur. These key elements explicate their learning experience and suggested a strategic teaching method.

  13. A web-based 3D visualisation and assessment system for urban precinct scenario modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trubka, Roman; Glackin, Stephen; Lade, Oliver; Pettit, Chris

    2016-07-01

    Recent years have seen an increasing number of spatial tools and technologies for enabling better decision-making in the urban environment. They have largely arisen because of the need for cities to be more efficiently planned to accommodate growing populations while mitigating urban sprawl, and also because of innovations in rendering data in 3D being well suited for visualising the urban built environment. In this paper we review a number of systems that are better known and more commonly used in the field of urban planning. We then introduce Envision Scenario Planner (ESP), a web-based 3D precinct geodesign, visualisation and assessment tool, developed using Agile and Co-design methods. We provide a comprehensive account of the tool, beginning with a discussion of its design and development process and concluding with an example use case and a discussion of the lessons learned in its development.

  14. ABM and GIS-based multi-scenarios volcanic evacuation modelling of Merapi

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jumadi, Carver, Steve; Quincey, Duncan

    2016-05-01

    Conducting effective evacuation is one of the successful keys to deal with such crisis. Therefore, a plan that considers the probability of the spatial extent of the hazard occurrences is needed. Likewise, the evacuation plan in Merapi is already prepared before the eruption on 2010. However, the plan could not be performed because the eruption magnitude was bigger than it was predicted. In this condition, the extent of the hazardous area was increased larger than the prepared hazard model. Managing such unpredicted situation need adequate information that flexible and adaptable to the current situation. Therefore, we applied an Agent-based Model (ABM) and Geographic Information System (GIS) using multi-scenarios hazard model to support the evacuation management. The methodology and the case study in Merapi is provided.

  15. Low carbon scenarios for transport in India: Co-benefits analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dhar, Subash; Shukla, P.R.

    2015-01-01

    Dependence on oil for transport is a concern for India's policymakers on three counts – energy security, local environment and climate change. Rapid urbanisation and accompanying motorisation has created some of the most polluting cities in India and rising demand for oil is leading to higher...... imports, besides causing more CO2 emissions. The government of India wants to achieve the climate goals through a sustainability approach that simultaneously addresses other environment and developmental challenges. This paper analyses a sustainable low carbon transport (SLCT) scenario based...... security (cumulative oil demand lower by 3100 Mtoe), improved air quality (PM 2.5 emissions never exceed the existing levels) and the cumulative CO2 emissions are lower by 13 billion t CO2 thereby showing that achieving development objectives with CO2 co-benefits is feasible....

  16. Intermediate steps towards the 2000-Watt society in Switzerland: an energy-economic scenario analysis[Dissertation 17314

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schulz, T. F

    2007-07-01

    In this dissertation by Thorsten Frank Schulz the intermediate steps necessary to realise the 2000-Watt Society in Switzerland are examined. An analysis of an energy-economic scenario shows that the 2000-Watt Society should be seen as a long-term goal. According to the author, the major changes required to allow the implementation of this project concern energy-transformation and energy-demand technologies. Electricity will, according to the author, play an important role in a service-oriented society in the future. In such a transformation even intermediate steps are associated with considerable expense. The aims of the 2000-Watt Society project are listed. Energy and CO{sub 2} balances for the domestic and transport sectors are presented and discussed. Complementary analyses are presented concerning fuel cells and wood-based fuel technologies. Finally, the implications of the 2000-Watt society and the effects of technological change are summarised and an outlook is presented.

  17. Effect of Problem Based Learning Scenario on Knowledge of Third Class Students About Childhood Poisoning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nazan Karaoğlu

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: It is stated that students cannot carry their knowledge on basic medical sciences that they gained with classical education to clinical classes and clinical practice and problem based learning (PBL can compensate this drawback. It was aimed to evaluate the effect of PBL scenario written on this topic on level of knowledge about childhood poisoning of third class students who completed the most of theoretical pharmacology education.Materials and Method: A questionnaire form prepared by researchers was applied to randomly chosen PBL groups without writing names and on the basis of voluntariness before and after a case of childhood poisoning which was applied as the second PBL scenario in the second midterm of 2009-2010 academic years. Numbers, percentages, chi-square and student’s t-test were used for evaluation of the questionnaire form comprised of demographic data, open-closed ended questions for measuring attitudes and level of knowledge against case of poisoning and statements as making a priority ranking.Results: In the study group, 89 students took part in pre-test and 96 students took part in post-test. In the answers to the list including the substances that are the most common causes of admission according to data of Refik Saydam National Poison Center (e.g. lotion, bath foam, cosmetics, water color and calamine lotions, the substances that the students stated to be toxic in pre-test were answered correctly in the post-test (p<0.05. Number of correct answers increased significantly for knowledge about commonly used drugs in clinical practice like anti-depressants, calcium canal blockers, oral antidiabetics that were marked as non-toxic by the students although they are toxic (p<0.05. While mean knowledge score for these 40 items was 17.52±5.82 in pre-test, it increased to 27.89±8.79 in post-test (p<0.001.Conclusion: Results of this study indicate that PBL scenario applied to the students who learned pharmacology

  18. Comparison of selected methods of analysis for reconstructed fields of precipitation in climate scenarios over Poland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Konca-Kedzierska, Krystyna

    2017-01-01

    Obtaining information about future climate change is essential to the development of adaptation strategies, but no less a significant problem than gathering the data is assessing its credibility. The task of assessing the credibility of scenarios is solved by evaluating climate models in the referenced period. Methods of comparing meteorological fields in the grid points often lead to an overestimation of the error for precipitation. The way precipitation effects the environment—a much wider concern than just where the precipitation occurs—allows for the assumption of some tolerance in the verification of its location. The main objective of this study is to find a way to evaluate climate scenarios without taking into account the details of location and intensity of precipitation. One of the methods for a less restrictive examination of compatibility of precipitation fields is to compare their properties in the neighborhood of the point rather than the value at the point. Maps of climate indices and probabilities of exceeding some threshold are evaluated. The second method is a cluster approach, and each field of precipitation is replaced by a set of clusters found in the phase space {(lon,lat,cl)}, where cl is the class of precipitation. Instead of comparing the fields of precipitation, it deals with the set of exemplars of the clusters. Further analysis concerns the spatial distribution of exemplars within a selected class of precipitation. This generalized description allows for comparison between precipitation fields with tolerance in respect to exact location and intensity. Comparison with such descriptions allows one to assess whether two given fields have a similar property in a very general sense.

  19. Land use scenarios simulation based on the CLUE-S model of the Lijiang River Basin in Guilin, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Qingwen; Liu, Guang; Li, Lei; He, Chengxin; Huang, Yuqing; Yao, Yuefeng

    2016-11-01

    The relationship between government policy and land use change is very important, which can provide important information for understanding of land use change and for helping in development of sustainable policy. Returning Farmland to Forest Program is simulated by the CLUE-S model. Land use maps in 1993, 2006, 2010 and 2015 in Lijiang River Basin are interpreted based on remote sensing change from 1993 to 2025 under two scenarios (i.e., Natural Growth Scenarios, Government Intervention Scenarios). In the “Natural Growth Scenarios”, the area of construction land and cultivated land are increased, the others are decreased. In the “Government Intervention Scenarios”, the area of construction land, woodland, cultivated land, and water are increased, the others is in declined. The compared results of two scenarios provide a scientific support for the government policy in the Lijiang River Basin.

  20. Developing courses with HoloRena, a framework for scenario- and game based e-learning environments

    CERN Document Server

    Juracz, Laszlo

    2010-01-01

    However utilizing rich, interactive solutions can make learning more effective and attractive, scenario- and game-based educational resources on the web are not widely used. Creating these applications is a complex, expensive and challenging process. Development frameworks and authoring tools hardly support reusable components, teamwork and learning management system-independent courseware architecture. In this article we initiate the concept of a low-level, thick-client solution addressing these problems. With some example applications we try to demonstrate, how a framework, based on this concept can be useful for developing scenario- and game-based e-learning environments.

  1. Life cycle assessment of cell phones in Brazil based on two reverse logistics scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniela da Gama e Silva Volpe Moreira de Moraes

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available This article is a result of a cell phone collection obtained at the Center for Information Technology Renato Archer (CTI under the AMBIENTRONIC Program, an initiative that supports the Brazilian electronic sector in the development of technologies for sustainability. The objective of this article is to assess two reverse logistic scenarios of cell phones using the technique of life-cycle assessment (LCA. The first scenario reflects the current scenario in Brazil, where batteries are recycled in Brazil and the other parts of the phones are outsourced to Europe. The second scenario is a proposal of full treatment in Brazil. The results indicate that the second scenario has a lower potential impact with important reduction of acidification, photochemical oxidation, eutrophication and the use of non-renewable energy. Furthermore, fully implementing reverse logistics in Brazil will enable socioeconomic benefits from the sale of materials and the generation of employment and income.

  2. Modeling post-fire sediment yield based on two burn scenarios at the Sooke Lake Reservoir, BC, Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dobre, Mariana; Elliot, William J.; Brooks, Erin S.; Smith, Tim

    2016-04-01

    Wildfires can have major adverse effects on municipal water sources. Local governments need methods to evaluate fire risk and to develop mitigation procedures. The Sooke Lake Reservoir is the primary source of water for the city of Victoria, BC and the concern is that sediment delivered from upland burned areas could have a detrimental impact on the reservoir and the water supply. We conducted a sediment delivery modeling pilot study on a portion of the Sooke Lake Reservoir (specifically, the Trestle Creek Management Unit (TCMU)) to evaluate the potential impacts of wildfire on sediment delivery from hillslopes and sub-catchments. We used a process-based hydrologic and soil erosion model called Water Erosion Prediction Project geospatial interface, GeoWEPP, to predict the sediment delivery from specific return period design storms for two burn severity scenarios: real (low-intensity burn severity) and worst (high-intensity burn severity) case scenarios. The GeoWEPP model allows users to simulate streamflow and erosion from hillslope polygons within a watershed. The model requires information on the topographic, soil and vegetative characteristics for each hillslope and a weather file. WEPP default values and several assumptions were necessary to apply the model where data were missing. Based on a 10-m DEM we delineated 16 watersheds within the TCMU area. A long term 100-year daily climate file was generated for this analysis using the CLIGEN model based on the historical observations recorded at Concrete, WA in United States, and adjusted for observed monthly precipitation observed in the Sooke Basin. We ran 100-year simulations and calculated yearly and event-based return periods (for 2, 5, 10, 20, 25, and 50 years) for each of the 16 watersheds. Overall, WEPP simulations indicate that the storms that are most likely to produce the greatest runoff and sediment load in these coastal, maritime climates with relatively low rainfall intensities are likely to occur in

  3. Event-based knowledge elicitation of operating room management decision-making using scenarios adapted from information systems data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Epstein Richard H

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background No systematic process has previously been described for a needs assessment that identifies the operating room (OR management decisions made by the anesthesiologists and nurse managers at a facility that do not maximize the efficiency of use of OR time. We evaluated whether event-based knowledge elicitation can be used practically for rapid assessment of OR management decision-making at facilities, whether scenarios can be adapted automatically from information systems data, and the usefulness of the approach. Methods A process of event-based knowledge elicitation was developed to assess OR management decision-making that may reduce the efficiency of use of OR time. Hypothetical scenarios addressing every OR management decision influencing OR efficiency were created from published examples. Scenarios are adapted, so that cues about conditions are accurate and appropriate for each facility (e.g., if OR 1 is used as an example in a scenario, the listed procedure is a type of procedure performed at the facility in OR 1. Adaptation is performed automatically using the facility's OR information system or anesthesia information management system (AIMS data for most scenarios (43 of 45. Performing the needs assessment takes approximately 1 hour of local managers' time while they decide if their decisions are consistent with the described scenarios. A table of contents of the indexed scenarios is created automatically, providing a simple version of problem solving using case-based reasoning. For example, a new OR manager wanting to know the best way to decide whether to move a case can look in the chapter on "Moving Cases on the Day of Surgery" to find a scenario that describes the situation being encountered. Results Scenarios have been adapted and used at 22 hospitals. Few changes in decisions were needed to increase the efficiency of use of OR time. The few changes were heterogeneous among hospitals, showing the usefulness of

  4. Algal-based CO2 Sequestration Technology and Global Scenario of Carbon Credit Market: A Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shailendra Kumar Singh

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this paper is to provide an overview of the global and national scenario of Carbon credit. This paper will also discuss the advantages of the algae-based carbon capture technology in growing carbon credit market. Carbon Dioxide (CO2, the most important greenhouse gas produced by combustion of fuels, has become a cause of global panic as its concentration in the Earth’s atmosphere has been rising alarmingly. However, it is now turning into a product that helps people, countries, consultants, traders, corporations and even farmers earn billion of rupees. A carbon credit is a generic term for any tradable certificate or permit representing the right to emit one tone of CO2 or CO2 equivalent (CO2-e. Businesses can exchange, buy or sell carbon credits in the international markets at the prevailing market price. India and China are likely to emerge as biggest seller and Europe is going to be biggest buyers of carbon credits. Using algae for reduction the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere is known as algae-based carbon capture technology. This new technology has attracted companies that need inexpensive CO2 sequestration solutions. Algae farming emerge as the best CO2 sequestration technique in comparison with other methods.

  5. Life Cycle Analysis of the Production of FT-Fuels. 4 Different Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Blinge, M. [Chalmers University of Technology (Sweden); Rehnlund, B. [Atrax Energi AB (Sweden); Larsen, U.; Lundorf, P.; Ivarsson, A.; Schramm, J. [Technical University of Denmark (Denmark)

    2006-11-15

    This paper deals with aspects concerning the life cycle aspects regarding Fischer-Tropsch (FT) fuels. Four different scenarios are being analysed based on Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) figures. The results etc presented below emanates from a project undertaken by the International Energy Agency's (IEA) Implementing Agreement on Advanced Motor Fuels (IEA/AMF). The project has been carried out as an IEA/AMF annex, number XXXI, with financial support from the USA, Finland and Denmark. Some important results from the scenario studies based on the evaluated LCA data are: Production and use of GTL fuel has the potential of contributing about the same or slightly less greenhouse gas to the atmosphere than production and use of conventional diesel; Production and use of CTL emits more than twice as much greenhouse gases compared to traditional fuels; Production and use of BTL reduces the emissions of greenhouse gases by 60-90 %; To substitute 15 % of the EU 15 countries fuel consumption would an area of 310 000 km2 be cultivated with Salix. This corresponds to an area of the size of Poland. It would also require 122 FTplants of 1,6 GW; Theoretically, it is possible supply the worlds need for energy with biomass. However, planning the production, the localization of plants, building the infrastructure, this will take time and requires heavy long-term investments; The demand for Natural gas is increasing and there is no way for the US to meet an increased demand from supplying the vehicle fleet with F-T fuels from domestic reserves. With the political situation in the Middle East and in Venezuela, it doesn't seem likely that this solution will ease the US problems with reducing their oil dependences. The IEA/AMF project has also included emission tests on road vehicles fuelled by FT-Gasoline. These tests have been performed by The Technical University of Denmark and will be presented in another presentation at the ISAF XVI, 'Emissions from Road Vehicles Fuelled

  6. Analysis of the change in temperature trends in Subansiri River basin for RCP scenarios using CMIP5 datasets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shivam; Goyal, Manish Kumar; Sarma, Arup Kumar

    2016-06-01

    This study focuses on changes in the maximum and minimum temperature over the Subansiri River basin for different climate change scenarios. For the study, dataset from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) fifth assessment report (AR5) (i.e., coupled model intercomparison project phase five (CMIP5) dataset with representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios) were utilized. Long-term (2011-2100) maximum temperature (T max) and minimum temperature (Tmin) time series were generated using the statistical downscaling technique for low emission scenario (RCP2.6), moderate emission scenario (RCP6.0), and extreme emission scenario (RCP8.5). Trends and change of magnitude in T max, T min, and diurnal temperature range (DTR) were analyzed for different interdecadal time scales (2011-2100, 2011-2040, 2041-2070, 2070-2100) using Mann-Kendall non-parametric test and Sen's slope estimator, respectively. The temperature data series for the observed duration (1981-2000) has been found to show increasing trends in T max and T min at both annual and monthly scale. Trend analysis of downscaled temperature for the period 2011-2100 shows increase in annual maximum temperature and annual minimum temperature for all the selected RCP scenarios; however, on the monthly scale, T max and T min have been seen to have decreasing trends in some months.

  7. Economic and environmental evaluation of three goal-vision based scenarios for organic dairy farming in Denmark.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oudshoorn, F.W.; Sorensen, C.A.G.; Boer, de I.J.M.

    2011-01-01

    The objective of this study was to explore the sustainability of future organic dairy farming systems in Denmark, by evaluating the economic and environmental consequences of three scenarios at the farm level based on different visions of future sustainability leading to different farm-based goals.

  8. Lunar base scenario cost estimates: Lunar base systems study task 6.1

    Science.gov (United States)

    1988-01-01

    The projected development and production costs of each of the Lunar Base's systems are described and unit costs are estimated for transporting the systems to the lunar surface and for setting up the system.

  9. MOSES – A modelling tool for the analysis of scenarios of the European electricity supply system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Agert C.

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Recent studies have shown that a transition of the current power supply system in Europe to a system almost entirely based on fluctuating Renewable Energy Sources (RES by mid-century is possible. However, most of these scenarios require a significant amount of back-up power capacities to ensure the security of electricity supply. This would imply high additional investments and operating costs. Hence, alternative options should be investigated first. Here we present a first outlook of our simulation model MOSES which will be able to analyse different target states of the European electricity system in 2050. In this model long-term meteorological data series are used to optimise the capacity mix of RES in Europe. One of the main elements of our tool is a simplified electricity network. In addition, alternative options for reduction of additional back-up power like the expansion of the transmission grid, the use of demand-side management and/or the installation of over-capacities will be implemented. The results will be used to provide scientifically proven recommendations to policy makers for a reliable energy supply system in Europe based on Renewable Energy Sources.

  10. Projecting the environmental profile of Singapore's landfill activities: Comparisons of present and future scenarios based on LCA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khoo, Hsien H; Tan, Lester L Z; Tan, Reginald B H

    2012-05-01

    This article aims to generate the environmental profile of Singapore's Semakau landfill by comparing three different operational options associated with the life cycle stages of landfilling activities, against a 'business as usual' scenario. Before life cycle assessment or LCA is used to quantify the potential impacts from landfilling activities, an attempt to incorporate localized and empirical information into the amounts of ash and MSW sent to the landfill was made. A linear regression representation of the relationship between the mass of waste disposed and the mass of incineration ash generated was modeled from waste statistics between years 2004 and 2009. Next, the mass of individual MSW components was projected from 2010 to 2030. The LCA results highlighted that in a 'business as usual' scenario the normalized total impacts of global warming, acidification and human toxicity increased by about 2% annually from 2011 to 2030. By replacing the 8000-tonne barge with a 10000-tonne coastal bulk carrier or freighter (in scenario 2) a grand total reduction of 48% of both global warming potential and acidification can be realized by year 2030. Scenario 3 explored the importance of having a Waste Water Treatment Plant in place to reduce human toxicity levels - however, the overall long-term benefits were not as significant as scenario 2. It is shown in scenario 4 that the option of increased recycling championed over all other three scenarios in the long run, resulting in a total 58% reduction in year 2030 for the total normalized results. A separate comparison of scenarios 1-4 is also carried out for energy utilization and land use in terms of volume of waste occupied. Along with the predicted reductions in environmental burdens, an additional bonus is found in the expanded lifespan of Semakau landfill from year 2032 (base case) to year 2039. Model limitations and suggestions for improvements were also discussed.

  11. Selection of an appropriate wastewater treatment technology: a scenario-based multiple-attribute decision-making approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalbar, Pradip P; Karmakar, Subhankar; Asolekar, Shyam R

    2012-12-30

    Many technological alternatives for wastewater treatment are available, ranging from advanced technologies to conventional treatment options. It is difficult to select the most appropriate technology from among a set of available alternatives to treat wastewater at a particular location. Many factors, such as capital costs, operation and maintenance costs and land requirement, are involved in the decision-making process. Sustainability criteria must also be incorporated into the decision-making process such that appropriate technologies are selected for developing economies such as that of India. A scenario-based multiple-attribute decision-making (MADM) methodology has been developed and applied to the selection of wastewater treatment alternative. The four most commonly used wastewater treatment technologies for treatment of municipal wastewater in India are ranked for various scenarios. Six scenarios are developed that capture the regional and local societal priorities of urban, suburban and rural areas and translate them into the mathematical algorithm of the MADM methodology. The articulated scenarios depict the most commonly encountered decision-making situations in addressing technology selection for wastewater treatment in India. A widely used compensatory MADM technique, TOPSIS, has been selected to rank the alternatives. Seven criteria with twelve indicators are formulated to evaluate the alternatives. Different weight matrices are used for each scenario, depending on the priorities of the scenario. This study shows that it is difficult to select the most appropriate wastewater treatment alternative under the "no scenario" condition (equal weights given to each attribute), and the decision-making methodology presented in this paper effectively identifies the most appropriate wastewater treatment alternative for each of the scenarios.

  12. Automation of block assignment planning using a diagram-based scenario modeling method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hwang, In Hyuck; Kim, Youngmin; Lee, Dong Kun; Shin, Jong Gye

    2014-03-01

    Most shipbuilding scheduling research so far has focused on the load level on the dock plan. This is be¬cause the dock is the least extendable resource in shipyards, and its overloading is difficult to resolve. However, once dock scheduling is completed, making a plan that makes the best use of the rest of the resources in the shipyard to minimize any additional cost is also important. Block assignment planning is one of the midterm planning tasks; it assigns a block to the facility (factory/shop or surface plate) that will actually manufacture the block according to the block characteristics and current situation of the facility. It is one of the most heavily loaded midterm planning tasks and is carried out manu¬ally by experienced workers. In this study, a method of representing the block assignment rules using a diagram was su¬ggested through analysis of the existing manual process. A block allocation program was developed which automated the block assignment process according to the rules represented by the diagram. The planning scenario was validated through a case study that compared the manual assignment and two automated block assignment results.

  13. Automation of block assignment planning using a diagram-based scenario modeling method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hwang In Hyuck

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Most shipbuilding scheduling research so far has focused on the load level on the dock plan. This is be¬cause the dock is the least extendable resource in shipyards, and its overloading is difficult to resolve. However, once dock scheduling is completed, making a plan that makes the best use of the rest of the resources in the shipyard to minimize any additional cost is also important. Block assignment planning is one of the midterm planning tasks; it assigns a block to the facility (factory/shop or surface plate that will actually manufacture the block according to the block characteristics and current situation of the facility. It is one of the most heavily loaded midterm planning tasks and is carried out manu¬ally by experienced workers. In this study, a method of representing the block assignment rules using a diagram was su¬ggested through analysis of the existing manual process. A block allocation program was developed which automated the block assignment process according to the rules represented by the diagram. The planning scenario was validated through a case study that compared the manual assignment and two automated block assignment results.

  14. Energy scenarios for Germany. A critical analysis of the 2011 Lead Study; Energieszenarien fuer Deutschland. Eine kritische Analyse der Leitstudie 2011

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hake, Juergen-Friedrich; Hansen, Patrick; Kronenberg, Tobias; Pesch, Thiemo [Forschungszentrum Juelich GmbH (DE). Inst. fuer Energie- und Klimaforschung, Systemforschung und Technologische Entwicklung (IEK-STE)

    2012-06-15

    A multitude of energy scenarios has evolved over the past years for the purpose of analysing future developments of the German energy supply system. These scenarios differ markedly in their goals and methods. This article presents an analysis method for classifying and comparing these scenarios and then proceeds to apply the method to the current ''Lead Study''.

  15. Analysis of climate variability under various scenarios for future urban growth in Seoul Metropolitan Area (SMA), Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, H.; Jeong, J.; Kim, Y.

    2011-12-01

    It is important to adjust urban growth data closer to reality in the regional climate model because urban changes give effects to physical properties such as albedo, moisture availability and roughness length in the atmosphere. Future urban growth, however, has not been considered widely in the prediction model for future climate change. In this study, we used the urban growth model called SLEUTH (Slope, Land-use, Excluded, Urban, Transportation, Hill-shade) based on cellular automata (CA) technique to predict the future urban growth. The target area is Seoul Metropolitan area (SMA) where the urban area explosively has expanded the most in the Korean peninsula due to the continuous industrialization since 1970s. The SLEUTH model was calibrated to know the pattern of the urban growth in SMA with historical data for 35 years (1975-2000) provided from Water Management Information System (WAMIS) in Korea and then the future urban growth was projected out to 2050 assuming three different scenarios: (1) current trends scenario (Scenario 1; SC1), (2) regional policy and urban planning scenario (Scenario 2; SC2), (3) ecologically protection scenario (Scenario 3; SC3). As a result, the urban ratios by scenarios were increased 12.87, 11.17 and 6.26 percentages of the total area for 50 years respectively. These predictions of SLEUTH model used as the boundary condition data and the 6 hourly data of ECHAM5/OM-1 A1B scenarios generated by Max-Plank Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg, Germany used as the initial condition data in Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. We designed four different numerical experiments in accordance with the four scenarios for the urban growth (SC1, SC2, SC3 and Current condition) and carried out for 5 years (2046-2050). Overall, the increment of urban ratio under various urban growth scenarios in SMA caused the spatial distributions of temperature to change, the average temperature to increase and the average wind speed to decrease in the

  16. Intermediate steps towards the 2000 W society in Switzerland: An energy-economic scenario analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schulz, Thorsten F.; Kypreos, Socrates [Energy Economics Group, Paul Scherrer Institute (PSI) CH-5232 Villigen (Switzerland); Barreto, Leonardo [Energy Economics Group, Paul Scherrer Institute (PSI) CH-5232 Villigen (Switzerland); Austrian Energy Agency, A-1060 Vienna (Austria); Wokaun, Alexander [General Energy, Paul Scherrer Institute (PSI) CH-5232 Villigen (Switzerland)

    2008-04-15

    In the future, sustainable development under the umbrella of the 2000 W society could be of major interest. Could the target of the 2000 W society, i.e. a primary energy per capita (PEC) consumption of 2000 W, be realized until 2050? Various combinations of PEC and CO{sub 2} targets are tested, and the additional costs to be paid by the society are estimated. The assessment is carried out with the Swiss MARKAL model, a bottom-up energy-system model projecting future technology investments for Switzerland. The analysis reveals that the 2000 W society should be seen as a long-term goal. For all contemplated scenarios, a PEC consumption of 3500 W per capita (w/cap) is feasible in the year 2050. However, strong PEC consumption targets can reduce CO{sub 2} emissions to an equivalent of 5% per decade at maximum. For stronger CO{sub 2} emission reduction goals, corresponding targets must be formulated explicitly. At an oil price of 75 US${sub 2000}/bbl in 2050, the additional (cumulative, discounted) costs to reach a 10% CO{sub 2} reduction per decade combined with a 3500 W per capita target amount to about 40 billion US${sub 2000}. On the contrary, to reach pure CO{sub 2} reduction targets is drastically cheaper, challenging the vision of the 2000 W society. (author)

  17. Based on Scenario Analysis the Choice of the Layout of the Urban Space and Industrial Strategy——Taking Yibin City as an Example%基于情景分析的城市空间与产业战略布局选择——以宜宾市为例

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    卢毅; 李理; 赵勇; 吴颖

    2013-01-01

    In terms of the problem of the layout of the urban space and industrial strategy can not be solved by conventional prediction method, Scene analysis method can be used in tackling the problem, it can emphasize the core problem and the key factors, the most likely three scenario schemes can be constructed: polynuclear, monocyte, ribbon. To make the choice of Yibin city "multicore development" space strategy, analysis and evaluation are implemented. Based on the overall coordination considering of space and traffic factors, Yibin "three core triaxial twelve group" development mode and industrial strategy layout selection and development strategy can be formulated.%针对常规预测方法难于解决宜宾市当前形势下空间与产业战略布局的问题,应用情景分析方法,明确其关键影响因素和核心问题,构建出多核、单核、带状等三种最有可能出现的情景方案,进行分析评价,作出宜宾市“多核发展”空间战略布局选择.在协调统筹考虑空间、交通因素的基础上,制定出宜宾“三核心三轴十二组团”的模式与产业战略布局选择及其发展策略.

  18. Scenario-based prediction of Li-ion batteries fire-induced toxicity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lecocq, Amandine; Eshetu, Gebrekidan Gebresilassie; Grugeon, Sylvie; Martin, Nelly; Laruelle, Stephane; Marlair, Guy

    2016-06-01

    The development of high energy Li-ion batteries with improved durability and increased safety mostly relies on the use of newly developed electrolytes. A detailed appraisal of fire-induced thermal and chemical threats on LiPF6- and LiFSI-based electrolytes by means of the so-called "fire propagation apparatus" had highlighted that the salt anion was responsible for the emission of a non negligible content of irritant gas as HF (PF6-) or HF and SO2 (FSI-). A more thorough comparative investigation of the toxicity threat in the case of larger-size 0.4 kWh Li-ion modules was thus undertaken. A modeling approach that consists in extrapolating the experimental data obtained from 1.3Ah LiFePO4/graphite pouch cells under fire conditions and in using the state-of-the-art fire safety international standards for the evaluation of fire toxicity was applied under two different real-scale simulating scenarios. The obtained results reveal that critical thresholds are highly dependent on the nature of the salt, LiPF6 or LiFSI, and on the cells state of charge. Hence, this approach can help define appropriate fire safety engineering measures for a given technology (different chemistry) or application (fully charged backup batteries or batteries subjected to deep discharge).

  19. Systemic analysis of production scenarios for bioethanol produced from ligno-cellulosic biomass [abstract

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ghysel, F.

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Defining alternatives for non-renewable energy sources constitutes a priority to the development of our societies. One of these alternatives is biofuels production starting from energy crops, agricultural wastes, forest products or wastes. In this context, a "second generation" biofuels production, aiming at utilizing the whole plant, including ligno-cellulosic (hemicelluloses, cellulose, lignin fractions (Ogier et al., 1999 that are not used for human food, would allow the reduction of the drawbacks of bioethanol production (Schoeling, 2007. However, numerous technical, economical, ethical and environmental questions are still pending. One of the aims of the BioEtha2 project, directed by the Walloon Agricultural Research Centre, is to define the position of bioethanol produced from ligno-cellulosic biomass among the different renewable energy alternatives that could be developed in Wallonia towards 2020. With this aim, and in order to answer the numerous questions in this field, the project aims at using tools and methods coming from the concept of "forecasting scenarios" (Sebillotte, 2002; Slegten et al., 2007; For-learn, 2008. This concept, based on a contemporary reality, aims to explore different possible scenarios for the future development of alternative sources of energy production. The principle is to evaluate, explore, possible futures of the studied problematic, through the establishment of possible evolution trajectories. We contribute to this prospective through a systemic approach (Vanloqueren, 2007 that allows lightening the existing interactions within the system "ligno-cellulosic biomass chain" without isolating it from its environment. We explain and sketch the two contexts needed to identify primary stakes. The global context includes inter-dependant and auto-regulating fields such as society, politics, technology and economy. These four fields influence each part of the "chain" with specific tools. However, the interest and

  20. Life-cycle analysis of the total Danish energy system. An assessment of the present Danish energy system and selected furture scenarios. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kuemmel, B.; Soerensen, B.

    1997-01-01

    The promise of life-cycle analysis (LCA) is to enable the incorporation of environmental and social impacts into decision-making processes. The challenge is to do it on the basis of the always incomplete and uncertain data available, in a way that is sufficiently transparent to avoid that the modeller introduces any particular bias into the decision process, by the way of selecting and treating the incomplete data. The life-cycle analysis of the currently existing system is to be seen as a reference, against which alternative solutions to the same problem is weighed. However, as it takes time to introduce new systems, the alternative scenarios are for a future situation, which is chosen as the middle of the 21st century. The reason for using a 30-50 year period is a reflection on the time needed for a smooth transition to an energy system based on sources different from the ones used today, with implied differences all the way through the conversion and end-use system. A scenario will only be selected if it has been identified and if there is social support for it, so construction of more exotic scenarios by the researcher would only be meaningful, if its advantages are so convincing that an interest can be created and the necessary social support be forthcoming. One may say that the energy scenarios based on renewable energy sources are in this category, as they were identified by a minority group (of scientists and other individuals) and successfully brought to the attention of the public debate during 1970ies. In any case it should be kept in mind, that no claim of having identified the optimum solution can be made after assessing a finite number of scenarios. (EG) 88 refs.

  1. Can scenario-planning support community-based natural resource management? Experiences from three countries in Latin America

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kerry A. Waylen

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Community-based natural resource management (CBNRM is a concept critical to managing social-ecological systems but whose implementation needs strengthening. Scenario planning is one approach that may offer benefits relevant to CBNRM but whose potential is not yet well understood. Therefore, we designed, trialed, and evaluated a scenario-planning method intended to support CBNRM in three cases, located in Colombia, Mexico, and Argentina. Implementing scenario planning was judged as worthwhile in all three cases, although aspects of it were challenging to facilitate. The benefits generated were relevant to strengthening CBNRM: encouraging the participation of local people and using their knowledge, enhanced consideration of and adaptation to future change, and supporting the development of systems thinking. Tracing exactly when and how these benefits arose was challenging, but two elements of the method seemed particularly useful. First, using a systematic approach to discuss how drivers of change may affect local social-ecological systems helped to foster systems thinking and identify connections between issues. Second, explicitly focusing on how to use and respond to scenarios helped identify specific practical activities, or "response options," that would support CBNRM despite the pressures of future change. Discussions about response options also highlighted the need for support by other actors, e.g., policy groups: this raised the question of when and how other actors and other sources of knowledge should be involved in scenario planning, so as to encourage their buy-in to actions identified by the process. We suggest that other CBNRM initiatives may benefit from adapting and applying scenario planning. However, these initiatives should be carefully monitored because further research is required to understand how and when scenario-planning methods may produce benefits, as well as their strengths and weaknesses versus other methods.

  2. Variability of tsunami inundation footprints considering stochastic scenarios based on a single rupture model: Application to the 2011 Tohoku earthquake

    KAUST Repository

    Goda, Katsuichiro

    2015-06-30

    The sensitivity and variability of spatial tsunami inundation footprints in coastal cities and towns due to a megathrust subduction earthquake in the Tohoku region of Japan are investigated by considering different fault geometry and slip distributions. Stochastic tsunami scenarios are generated based on the spectral analysis and synthesis method with regards to an inverted source model. To assess spatial inundation processes accurately, tsunami modeling is conducted using bathymetry and elevation data with 50 m grid resolutions. Using the developed methodology for assessing variability of tsunami hazard estimates, stochastic inundation depth maps can be generated for local coastal communities. These maps are important for improving disaster preparedness by understanding the consequences of different situations/conditions, and by communicating uncertainty associated with hazard predictions. The analysis indicates that the sensitivity of inundation areas to the geometrical parameters (i.e., top-edge depth, strike, and dip) depends on the tsunami source characteristics and the site location, and is therefore complex and highly nonlinear. The variability assessment of inundation footprints indicates significant influence of slip distributions. In particular, topographical features of the region, such as ria coast and near-shore plain, have major influence on the tsunami inundation footprints.

  3. Performance Analysis of IEEE 802.15.6 CSMA/CA Protocol for WBAN Medical Scenario through DTMC Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Vivek; Gupta, Bharat

    2016-12-01

    The newly drafted IEEE 802.15.6 standard for Wireless Body Area Networks (WBAN) has been concentrating on a numerous medical and non-medical applications. Such short range wireless communication standard offers ultra-low power consumption with variable data rates from few Kbps to Mbps in, on or around the proximity of the human body. In this paper, the performance analysis of carrier sense multiple access with collision avoidance (CSMA/CA) scheme based on IEEE 802.15.6 standard in terms of throughput, reliability, clear channel assessment (CCA) failure probability, packet drop probability, and end-to-end delay has been presented. We have developed a discrete-time Markov chain (DTMC) to significantly evaluate the performances of IEEE 802.15.6 CSMA/CA under non-ideal channel condition having saturated traffic condition including node wait time and service time. We also visualize that, as soon as the payload length increases the CCA failure probability increases, which results in lower node's reliability. Also, we have calculated the end-to-end delay in order to prioritize the node wait time cause by backoff and retransmission. The user priority (UP) wise DTMC analysis has been performed to show the importance of the standard especially for medical scenario.

  4. A task analysis of pier side ship-handling for virtual environment ship-handling simulator scenario development

    OpenAIRE

    Grassi, Charles R.

    2000-01-01

    Approved for public release: distribution is unlimited Researchers at the Naval Air Warfare Center Training Systems Divisions (NAWCTSD) in Orlando, FL have developed a testbed for the Conning Officer Virtual Environment (COVE) Ship-handling simulator. The purpose of this task analysis was to provide a workable document that they could use in the development of pier side ship-handling scenarios for their simulator. The task analysis not only identified the general procedures and methodologi...

  5. Scenarios of a deregulated electricity industry. Analysis; Szenarien einer liberalisierten Stromversorgung. Analyse

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Foerster, G.

    2002-07-01

    Four scenarios have been established which represent the spectrum of probable developments in the Internal Market until 2010. The content-related postulations are described in two parts. In the first part, various fundamental settings are defined which apply to all four scenarios alike, whereas in the second part a set of influencing variables (descriptors) are defined which develop along dissimilar, distinctive lines and thus can be used for modelling within the four different scenarios. Applying a special scenario analysing method, the cross-impact method, those combinations of descriptors can be derived which lead to conclusive scenarios and consistent postulations. (orig./CB) [German] Es wurden vier Szenarien erarbeitet, die das Spektrum der wahrscheinlichen Entwicklungen im EU-Binnenmarkt bis zum Jahr 2010 repraesentieren. Die inhaltlichen Aussagen werden in zwei Teilen beschrieben. Der erste Teil beinhaltet eine Reihe von Rahmengroessen, die fuer alle vier Szenarien gleich sind. Der zweite Teil besteht aus einem Satz von Einflussgroessen (Deskriptoren) mit verschiedenen Auspraegungen, in denen sich die vier Szenarien unterscheiden. Mit Hilfe einer speziellen Szenariotechnik, der Cross-Impact-Methode, bestimmt man diejenigen Kombinationen der Deskriptorauspraegungen, die zu in sich schluessigen Szenarien ohne widerspruechliche Assagen fuehren. (orig./CB)

  6. Thermal and Hydrological Response of Rock Glaciers to Climate Change: A Scenario Based Simulation Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Apaloo, Jotham; Brenning, Alexander; Gruber, Stephan

    2014-05-01

    Rock glaciers are ice-debris landforms characterized by creeping ice-rich permafrost. Recognition of their hydrological significance is increasing and is of particular relevance to the dry Andes, where rock glaciers cover greater area than glaciers. However, additional knowledge and research approaches pertaining to the seasonal hydrological contributions and climatic sensitivities of rock glaciers are necessary for improved water resource planning in many regions around the world. This work explores the utility of the energy and water balance model GEOtop to quantify the thermal and hydrological response of rock glaciers to climate scenarios. Weather data was generated with the intermediate-stochastic weather generator AWE-GEN for a site in the Southeast Swiss Alps, which marked a novel approach in cryospheric studies. Weather data for a reference scenario was generated which approximates conditions during the observation period (1985-2012). AWE-GEN produced time series of weather data for the reference scenario with statistical properties of precipitation in close agreement with observations, but air temperature showed substantial negative biases in summer months, which are attributed to difficulties in modeling local climatic characteristics. To examine the influence of climate change, data for eight climate change scenarios were generated by specifying change factors for mean monthly air temperature. The thermal and hydrological evolution of rock glacier soils were simulated for 50 years under the climatic forcing of the reference scenario followed by 50 years under each climate change scenario. Mean annual ground surface temperature (MAGST), active layer depth, permafrost total ice content, and the potential summer runoff contribution were quantified and compared before and after the onset of the climate change conditions. Air temperature increases in the climate change scenarios were amplified in MAGST. Stable rock glacier points were resistant to changes in

  7. Scenario Analysis for Programmatic Tuberculosis Control in Western Province, Papua New Guinea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trauer, James M; Denholm, Justin T; Waseem, Saba; Ragonnet, Romain; McBryde, Emma S

    2016-06-15

    Tuberculosis (TB) and multidrug-resistant TB (MDR-TB) are major health problems in Western Province, Papua New Guinea. While comprehensive expansion of TB control programs is desirable, logistical challenges are considerable, and there is substantial uncertainty regarding the true disease burden. We parameterized our previously described mathematical model of Mycobacterium tuberculosis dynamics in Western Province, following an epidemiologic assessment. Five hypothetical scenarios representing alternative programmatic approaches during the period from 2013 to 2023 were developed with local staff. Bayesian uncertainty analyses were undertaken to explicitly acknowledge the uncertainty around key epidemiologic parameters, and an economic evaluation was performed. With continuation of existing programmatic strategies, overall TB incidence remained stable at 555 cases per 100,000 population per year (95% simulation interval (SI): 420, 807), but the proportion of incident cases attributable to MDR-TB increased from 16% to 35%. Comprehensive, provincewide strengthening of existing programs reduced incidence to 353 cases per 100,000 population per year (95% SI: 246, 558), with 46% being cases of MDR-TB, while incorporating programmatic management of MDR-TB into these programs reduced incidence to 233 cases per 100,000 population per year (95% SI: 198, 269) with 14% MDR-TB. Most economic costs were due to hospitalization during the intensive treatment phase. Broad scale-up of TB control activities in Western Province with incorporation of programmatic management of MDR-TB is vital if control is to be achieved. Community-based treatment approaches are important to reduce the associated economic costs.

  8. A change navigation-based, scenario planning process within a developing world context from an Afro-centric leadership perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chris A. Geldenhuys

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Orientation: In the hyper turbulent context faced currently by organisations, more flexible strategic planning approaches, such as scenario planning which take into account a more comprehensive range of possible futures for an organisation, will position organisations better than conventional forecast and estimates that depend only on a single, linearly extrapolated, strategic response.Research purpose: This study aimed to investigate how scenario-based planning (a strictly cognitive management tool can be combined with organisational change navigation (a practice addressing the emotionality of change and how this integrated process should be aligned with the prerequisites imposed by a developing country context and an Afro-centric leadership perspective in order to make the process more context relevant and aligned.Motivation for the study: The integration of organisational change navigation with conventional scenario based planning, as well as the incorporation of the perquisites of a developing countries and an Afro-centric leadership perspective, will give organisations a more robust, holistic strategic management tool that will add significantly more value within a rapidly, radically and unpredictably changing world.Research design, approach and method: The adopted research approach comprised a combination of the sourcing of the latest thinking in the literature (the ‘theory’ as well as the views of seasoned practitioners of scenario planning (the ‘practice’ through an iterative research process, moving between theory and practice, back to practice and finally returning to theory in order to arrive at a validated expanded and enhanced scenario-based planning process which is both theory and practice ‘proof’.Main findings: A management tool incorporating the change navigation and the unique features of developing countries and Afro-centric leadership was formulated and empirically validated. This management tool is referred to as

  9. Environmental assessment of amine-based carbon capture Scenario modelling with life cycle assessment (LCA)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brekke, Andreas; Askham, Cecilia; Modahl, Ingunn Saur; Vold, Bjoern Ivar; Johnsen, Fredrik Moltu

    2012-07-01

    This report contains a first attempt at introducing the environmental impacts associated with amines and derivatives in a life cycle assessment (LCA) of gas power production with carbon capture and comparing these with other environmental impacts associated with the production system. The report aims to identify data gaps and methodological challenges connected both to modelling toxicity of amines and derivatives and weighting of environmental impacts. A scenario based modelling exercise was performed on a theoretical gas power plant with carbon capture, where emission levels of nitrosamines were varied between zero (gas power without CCS) to a worst case level (outside the probable range of actual carbon capture facilities). Because of extensive research and development in the areas of solvents and emissions from carbon capture facilities in the latter years, data used in the exercise may be outdated and results should therefore not be taken at face value.The results from the exercise showed: According to UseTox, emissions of nitrosamines are less important than emissions of formaldehyde with regard to toxicity related to operation of (i.e. both inputs to and outputs from) a carbon capture facility. If characterisation factors for emissions of metals are included, these outweigh all other toxic emissions in the study. None of the most recent weighting methods in LCA include characterisation factors for nitrosamines, and these are therefore not part of the environmental ranking.These results shows that the EDecIDe project has an important role to play in developing LCA methodology useful for assessing the environmental performance of amine based carbon capture in particular and CCS in general. The EDecIDe project will examine the toxicity models used in LCA in more detail, specifically UseTox. The applicability of the LCA compartment models and site specificity issues for a Norwegian/Arctic situation will be explored. This applies to the environmental compartments

  10. Google Earth based visualization of Dutch land use scenarios: beyond usability

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lammeren, van R.J.A.; Houtkamp, J.M.; Hilferink, M.; Bouwman, A.

    2009-01-01

    This contribution describes GESO, a tool to prepare a Google Earth visualization of the Dutch land use scenarios as created by the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency. This Google Earth (GE) for the Sustainable Outlook tool, named GESO aims to be an effective, easy and low cost way to study

  11. Nuclear Iran: Framing the U.S. Response Using a Scenario-Based Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    2006-04-01

    Scearce, Diana; Katherine Fulton; and the Global Business Network community. WHAT IF? The Art of Scenario Thinking for Nonprofits. Emeryville, CA... Global Business Network, 2004. “Shah’s son wants role in Iran future.” Aljjazeera.net, 15 January 2004, n.p. On-line. Internet, 18 January 2006

  12. Measurement-based Channel Characterization for 5G Wireless Communications on Campus Scenario

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mi, Yang; He, Ruisi; Ai, Bo

    2017-01-01

    GHz according to the requirements and scenarios of 5G communication. Channel measurements were conducted on campus of Beijing Jiaotong University, China at two key optional frequency bands below 6 GHz. By using the measured data, we analyzed key channel parameters at 460MHz and 3.5GHz, such as power...

  13. Analysis of Phosphorus Flows through Minnesota's Twin Cities Urban Food-Shed: Three Scenarios for Improving Nutrient Efficiency

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peterson, H. M.; Baker, L. A.

    2012-12-01

    cropping system within the food-shed. P use efficiencies for these systems include: corn (1.14), hog (0.47), dairy (0.36), and beef (0.20). We will present three scenarios to illustrate how upstream and downstream changes alter the urban food-shed P balance. The first scenario examines upstream (food processing) waste management to identify nutrient recycling inefficiencies between agricultural and urban systems. The second scenario focuses on quantifying how altering consumer choices, such as converting to a more vegetable-based diet, shifts the P balance within the food-shed. The final scenario seeks to improve P use efficiency within the urban ecosystem to reduce downstream transfer. This research will contribute to the understanding of how human diets within a concentrated urban ecosystem impact an entire systems P balance. The potential for increasing P use efficiency and identifying barriers and opportunities to improve P use efficiency will be discussed.

  14. Future trends in worldwide river nitrogen transport and related nitrous oxide emissions : a scenario analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kroeze, C.; Seitzinger, S.P.; Domingues, R.

    2001-01-01

    We analyze possible future trends in dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) export by world rivers and associated emissions of nitrous oxide (N2O). Our scenarios either assume that current trends continue or that nitrogen (N) inputs to aquatic systems are reduced as a result of changes in agriculture pr

  15. Analysis of 38 GHz mmWave Propagation Characteristics of Urban Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rodriguez Larrad, Ignacio; Nguyen, Huan Cong; Sørensen, Troels Bundgaard

    2015-01-01

    , diffraction, transmission, as well as polarization effects. The measurement results confirm that, at this particular frequency, propagation in urban scenarios is mainly driven by line-of-sight and reflection. The proposed models are practical for implementation in system level simulators or ray-tracing tools...

  16. Structural Analysis of the Global Multimedia Scenario: Technological, Market, Environmental, and Regulatory Issues.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicolo, Enrico; Sapio, Bartolomeo

    1996-01-01

    Presents a strategic evaluation of the global multimedia scenario, considering both stand-alone workstations and distributed multimedia in the worldwide interactive network, including educational databases on the Internet. Discusses 50 technological, market, environmental, and regulatory factors and estimates their impacts on each other using WISE…

  17. Interference analysis in a LTE-A HetNet scenario

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Monteiro, Nuno; Mihovska, Albena D.; Rodrigues, Antonio

    2013-01-01

    The electromagnetic spectrum is a scarce resource that needs to be efficiently and effectively reused to allow the provider the necessary conditions to satisfy its customers increasing demands. It is vital that the reuse of the spectrum does not lead to high interference scenarios. The use of het...

  18. Strategies to reduce the environmental impact of an aluminium pressure die casting plant: A scenario analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Neto, B.; Kroeze, C.; Hordijk, L.; Costa, C.; Pulles, M.P.J.

    2009-01-01

    This study explores a model (MIKADO) to analyse scenarios for the reduction of the environmental impact of an aluminium die casting plant. Our model calculates the potential to reduce emissions, and the costs associated with implementation of reduction options. In an earlier paper [Neto, B., Kroeze,

  19. Usability Assessment of International Office Website of Diponegoro University With Scenario Based Usability Evaluation Method and Wammi Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ratna Purwaningsih

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Website development needs to pay attention to usability aspect which consist of four factors: efficiency, effectiveness, satisfactions and error rate. The website of International Office of Diponegoro University provides academic information for Indonesian students and foreign students. The website still has some problem, especially on searching certain information. This research aims to evaluate the design of the existing website and measures the usability. A well-designed website will help users to meet theirs needs and purposes. The methods used in this study are Scenario-Based End-User Evaluation and WAMMI (Website Analysis and Measurement Inventory. Users perform a number of task on the existing website and on the redesigned website and then provide feedback for each task they have done and fill a WAMMI questionnaire as a test of memorability. This questionnaire used to test users memory on access process of a page from the site. The results of the data processing of usability test show that redesigned website has better value than existing website on effectiveness, efficiency, memorability and error rate.

  20. Food scenarios 2025

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sundbo, Jon

    2016-01-01

    This article presents the results of a future study of the food sector. Two scenarios have been developed using a combination of: 1) a summary of the relevant scientific knowledge, 2) systematic scenario writing, 3) an expert-based Delphi technique, and 4) an expert seminar assessment. The two...... scenarios present possible futures at global, national (Denmark) and regional (Zealand, Denmark) levels. The main scenario is called ‘Food for ordinary days and celebrations’ (a combination of ‘High-technological food production − The functional society’ and ‘High-gastronomic food − The experience society...

  1. Application of Scenario Analysis and Multiagent Technique in Land-Use Planning: A Case Study on Sanjiang Wetlands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huan Yu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Land-use planning has triggered debates on social and environmental values, in which two key questions will be faced: one is how to see different planning simulation results instantaneously and apply the results back to interactively assist planning work; the other is how to ensure that the planning simulation result is scientific and accurate. To answer these questions, the objective of this paper is to analyze whether and how a bridge can be built between qualitative and quantitative approaches for land-use planning work and to find out a way to overcome the gap that exists between the ability to construct computer simulation models to aid integrated land-use plan making and the demand for them by planning professionals. The study presented a theoretical framework of land-use planning based on scenario analysis (SA method and multiagent system (MAS simulation integration and selected freshwater wetlands in the Sanjiang Plain of China as a case study area. Study results showed that MAS simulation technique emphasizing quantitative process effectively compensated for the SA method emphasizing qualitative process, which realized the organic combination of qualitative and quantitative land-use planning work, and then provided a new idea and method for the land-use planning and sustainable managements of land resources.

  2. Scenario? Guilty!

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kyng, Morten

    1992-01-01

    Robert Campbell categorizes the word "scenario" as a buzzword, identifies four major uses within HCI and suggests that we adopt new terms differentiating these four uses of the word. My first reaction to reading the article was definitely positive, but rereading it gave me enough second thoughts ...... to warrant a response. I should probably confess that I searched my latest paper for the word "scenario" and found eight occurrences, none of which fell in the categories described by Campbell....

  3. New Approaches to Transport Project Assessment: Reference Scenario Forecasting and Quantitative Risk Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang

    2010-01-01

    This presentation sets out a new methodology for examining the uncertainties relating to transport decision making based on infrastructure appraisals. Traditional transport infrastructure projects are based upon cost-benefit analyses in order to appraise the projects feasibility. Recent research ....... Additionally, the handling of uncertainties is supplemented by making use of the principle of Optimism Bias, which depicts the historical tendency of overestimating transport related benefits (user demands i.e. travel time savings) and underestimating investment costs.......This presentation sets out a new methodology for examining the uncertainties relating to transport decision making based on infrastructure appraisals. Traditional transport infrastructure projects are based upon cost-benefit analyses in order to appraise the projects feasibility. Recent research...... however has proved that the point estimates derived from such analyses are embedded with a large degree of uncertainty. Thus, a new scheme was proposed in terms of applying quantitative risk analysis (QRA) and Monte Carlo simulation in order to represent the uncertainties within the cost-benefit analysis...

  4. Stochastic Multi-Commodity Facility Location Based on a New Scenario Generation Technique

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahootchi, M.; Fattahi, M.; Khakbazan, E.

    2011-11-01

    This paper extends two models for stochastic multi-commodity facility location problem. The problem is formulated as two-stage stochastic programming. As a main point of this study, a new algorithm is applied to efficiently generate scenarios for uncertain correlated customers' demands. This algorithm uses Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) and a scenario reduction approach. The relation between customer satisfaction level and cost are considered in model I. The risk measure using Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) is embedded into the optimization model II. Here, the structure of the network contains three facility layers including plants, distribution centers, and retailers. The first stage decisions are the number, locations, and the capacity of distribution centers. In the second stage, the decisions are the amount of productions, the volume of transportation between plants and customers.

  5. Supporting primary-level mathematics teachers’ collaboration in designing and using technology-based scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Misfeldt, Morten; Zacho, Lis

    2016-01-01

    In this article, we address how the design of educational scenarios can support teachers’ adoption of both technology and open-ended projects indorsing creativity and innovation. We do that by describing how groups of teachers develop digital learning environments supporting using a combination...... of GeoGebra and Google sites. Both teachers and pupils work with the concept of “game” as something they design, and furthermore, the pupils immerse themselves into the scenarios that the teachers create in a way similar to “playing a game.” We investigate teachers participation in collaborative...... development and testing through qualitative means, aiming to describe the teachers’ appropriation of (1) GeoGebra as a tool for doing and teaching mathematics, and (2) game as a metaphor supporting open-ended projects addressing creativity and innovation in the classroom. The data from the project suggest...

  6. Scenarios for nature development

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Harms, W.B.

    1995-01-01

    A procedure in backcasting scenarios is presented. Two case-studies differing in scale illustrate the differences in ecological contribution to plan design and to plan evaluation. Scenarios for nature development are presented for both case-studies, based on ecological objectives and spatial strateg

  7. Scenario-based earthquake hazard and risk assessment for Baku (Azerbaijan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Babayev

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available A rapid growth of population, intensive civil and industrial building, land and water instabilities (e.g. landslides, significant underground water level fluctuations, and the lack of public awareness regarding seismic hazard contribute to the increase of vulnerability of Baku (the capital city of the Republic of Azerbaijan to earthquakes. In this study, we assess an earthquake risk in the city determined as a convolution of seismic hazard (in terms of the surface peak ground acceleration, PGA, vulnerability (due to building construction fragility, population features, the gross domestic product per capita, and landslide's occurrence, and exposure of infrastructure and critical facilities. The earthquake risk assessment provides useful information to identify the factors influencing the risk. A deterministic seismic hazard for Baku is analysed for four earthquake scenarios: near, far, local, and extreme events. The seismic hazard models demonstrate the level of ground shaking in the city: PGA high values are predicted in the southern coastal and north-eastern parts of the city and in some parts of the downtown. The PGA attains its maximal values for the local and extreme earthquake scenarios. We show that the quality of buildings and the probability of their damage, the distribution of urban population, exposure, and the pattern of peak ground acceleration contribute to the seismic risk, meanwhile the vulnerability factors play a more prominent role for all earthquake scenarios. Our results can allow elaborating strategic countermeasure plans for the earthquake risk mitigation in the Baku city.

  8. Comparative analysis of hourly and dynamic power balancing models for validating future energy scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pillai, Jayakrishnan R.; Heussen, Kai; Østergaard, Poul Alberg

    2011-01-01

    Energy system analyses on the basis of fast and simple tools have proven particularly useful for interdisciplinary planning projects with frequent iterations and re-evaluation of alternative scenarios. As such, the tool “EnergyPLAN” is used for hourly balanced and spatially aggregate annual......, the model is verified on the basis of the existing energy mix on Bornholm as an islanded energy system. Future energy scenarios for the year 2030 are analysed to study a feasible technology mix for a higher share of wind power. Finally, the results of the hourly simulations are compared to dynamic frequency...... simulations incorporating the Vehicle-to-grid technology. The results indicate how the EnergyPLAN model may be improved in terms of intra-hour variability, stability and ancillary services to achieve a better reflection of energy and power capacity requirements....

  9. Investigating 100% renewable energy supply at regional level using scenario analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Annicka Waenn

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Energy modelling work in Ireland to date has mainly taken place at a national level. A regional modelling approach is necessary however, for Ireland to reach the ambitious targets for renewable energy and emissions reduction. This paper explores the usefulness of the energy modelling tool EnergyPLAN in investigating the energy system of the South West Region of Ireland. This paper estimates a 10.5% current renewable energy share of energy use, with 40% renewable electricity. We build and assess a reference scenario and three renewable energy scenarios from a technological and resources perspective. The results show that sufficient resources are available for the South West Region energy system to become 100% renewable and quantifies the land-use implications. Moreover, EnergyPLAN can be a useful tool in exploring different technical solutions. However, thorough investigations of as many alternatives as possible, is necessary before major investments are made in a future energy system.

  10. Risk-based damage potential and loss estimation of extreme flooding scenarios in the Austrian Federal Province of Tyrol

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Huttenlau

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Within the last decades serious flooding events occurred in many parts of Europe and especially in 2005 the Austrian Federal Province of Tyrol was serious affected. These events in general and particularly the 2005 event have sensitised decision makers and the public. Beside discussions pertaining to protection goals and lessons learnt, the issue concerning potential consequences of extreme and severe flooding events has been raised. Additionally to the general interest of the public, decision makers of the insurance industry, public authorities, and responsible politicians are especially confronted with the question of possible consequences of extreme events. Answers thereof are necessary for the implementation of preventive appropriate risk management strategies. Thereby, property and liability losses reflect a large proportion of the direct tangible losses. These are of great interest for the insurance sector and can be understood as main indicators to interpret the severity of potential events. The natural scientific-technical risk analysis concept provides a predefined and structured framework to analyse the quantities of affected elements at risk, their corresponding damage potentials, and the potential losses. Generally, this risk concept framework follows the process steps hazard analysis, exposition analysis, and consequence analysis. Additionally to the conventional hazard analysis, the potential amount of endangered elements and their corresponding damage potentials were analysed and, thereupon, concrete losses were estimated. These took the specific vulnerability of the various individual elements at risk into consideration. The present flood risk analysis estimates firstly the general exposures of the risk indicators in the study area and secondly analyses the specific exposures and consequences of five extreme event scenarios. In order to precisely identify, localize, and characterize the relevant risk indicators of buildings

  11. Tsunami hazard potential for the equatorial southwestern Pacific atolls of Tokelau from scenario-based simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orpin, Alan R.; Rickard, Graham J.; Gerring, Peter K.; Lamarche, Geoffroy

    2016-05-01

    Devastating tsunami over the last decade have significantly heightened awareness of the potential consequences and vulnerability of low-lying Pacific islands and coastal regions. Our appraisal of the potential tsunami hazard for the atolls of the Tokelau Islands is based on a tsunami source-propagation-inundation model using Gerris Flow Solver, adapted from the companion study by Lamarche et al. (2015) for the islands of Wallis and Futuna. We assess whether there is potential for tsunami flooding on any of the village islets from a selection of 14 earthquake-source experiments. These earthquake sources are primarily based on the largest Pacific earthquakes of Mw ≥ 8.1 since 1950 and other large credible sources of tsunami that may impact Tokelau. Earthquake-source location and moment magnitude are related to tsunami-wave amplitudes and tsunami flood depths simulated for each of the three atolls of Tokelau. This approach yields instructive results for a community advisory but is not intended to be fully deterministic. Rather, the underlying aim is to identify credible sources that present the greatest potential to trigger an emergency response. Results from our modelling show that wave fields are channelled by the bathymetry of the Pacific basin in such a way that the swathes of the highest waves sweep immediately northeast of the Tokelau Islands. Our limited simulations suggest that trans-Pacific tsunami from distant earthquake sources to the north of Tokelau pose the most significant inundation threat. In particular, our assumed worst-case scenario for the Kuril Trench generated maximum modelled-wave amplitudes in excess of 1 m, which may last a few hours and include several wave trains. Other sources can impact specific sectors of the atolls, particularly distant earthquakes from Chile and Peru, and regional earthquake sources to the south. Flooding is dependent on the wave orientation and direct alignment to the incoming tsunami. Our "worst-case" tsunami

  12. Effects of fishing effort allocation scenarios on energy efficiency and profitability: an individual-based model applied to Danish fisheries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bastardie, Francois; Nielsen, J. Rasmus; Andersen, Bo Sølgaard;

    2010-01-01

    engine specifications, and fish and fuel prices. The outcomes of scenarios A and B indicate a trade-off between fuel savings and energy efficiency improvements when effort is displaced closer to the harbour compared to reductions in total landing amounts and profit. Scenario C indicates that historic......Global concerns about CO2 emissions, national CO2 quotas, and rising fuel prices are incentives for the commercial fishing fleet industry to change their fishing practices and reduce fuel consumption, which constitutes a significant part of fishing costs. Vessel-based fuel consumption, energy...... efficiency (quantity of fish caught per litre of fuel used), and profitability are factors that we simulated in developing a spatially explicit individual-based model (IBM) for fishing vessel movements. The observed spatial and seasonal patterns of fishing effort for each fishing activity are evaluated...

  13. Accuracy of depolarization and delay spread predictions using advanced ray-based modeling in indoor scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mani Francesco

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract This article investigates the prediction accuracy of an advanced deterministic propagation model in terms of channel depolarization and frequency selectivity for indoor wireless propagation. In addition to specular reflection and diffraction, the developed ray tracing tool considers penetration through dielectric blocks and/or diffuse scattering mechanisms. The sensitivity and prediction accuracy analysis is based on two measurement campaigns carried out in a warehouse and an office building. It is shown that the implementation of diffuse scattering into RT significantly increases the accuracy of the cross-polar discrimination prediction, whereas the delay-spread prediction is only marginally improved.

  14. Cosmological Analysis of Dynamical Chern-Simons Modified Gravity via Dark Energy Scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdul Jawad

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to study the cosmological evolution of the universe in the framework of dynamical Chern-Simons modified gravity. We take pilgrim dark energy model with Hubble and event horizons in interacting scenario with cold dark matter. For this scenario, we discuss cosmological parameters such as Hubble and equation of state and cosmological plane like ωϑ-ωϑ′ and squared speed of sound. It is found that Hubble parameter approaches the ranges 75-0.5+0.5 (for u=2 and (74, 74.30 (for u=1,-1,-2 for Hubble horizon pilgrim dark energy. It implies the ranges 74.80-0.005+0.005 (for u=2 and (73.4, 74 (for u=-2 for event horizon pilgrim dark energy. The equation of state parameter provides consistent ranges with different observational schemes. Also, ωϑ-ωϑ′ planes lie in the range (ωϑ=-1.13-0.25+0.24,ωϑ′<1.32. The squared speed of sound shows stability for all present models in the present scenario. We would like to mention here that our results of various cosmological parameters show consistency with different observational data like Planck, WP, BAO, H0, SNLS, and WMAP.

  15. Robustness Analysis of Regional Water Supply Portfolios using Synthetic Inflow Scenarios with Variable Drought Frequency

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herman, J. D.; Zeff, H. B.; Lamontagne, J. R.; Reed, P. M.; Characklis, G. W.

    2015-12-01

    Robustness analyses of water supply systems have moved toward exploratory simulation to discover scenarios in which existing or planned policies may fail to meet stakeholder objectives. Such assessments rely heavily on the choice of plausible future scenarios, which, in the case of drought management, requires sampling or generating a broad ensemble of reservoir inflows which do not necessarily reflect the historical record. Here we adapt a widely used synthetic streamflow generation method to adjust the frequency of low-flow periods, which can be related to impactful historical events from the perspective of decision makers. Specifically, the modified generation procedure allows the user to specify parameters n, p such that events with observed weekly non-exceedance frequency p appear in the synthetic scenario with approximate frequency np (i.e., the pth percentile flow occurs n times more frequently). Additionally, the generator preserves the historical autocorrelation of streamflow and its seasonality, as well as approximate multi-site correlation. Using model simulations from recent work in multi-objective urban drought portfolio planning in North Carolina, a region whose water supply faces both climate and population pressures, we illustrate the decision-relevant consequences caused by raising the frequency of low flows associated with the 2007-2008 drought. This method explores system performance under extreme events of increasing frequency prior to reconciling these findings with climate model projections, and thus can be used to support bottom-up robustness methods in water systems planning.

  16. Metaphorical scenarios in business science discourse

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Baramee Kheovichai

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Metaphor has been shown to play an important role in business science discourse. Yet, previous corpus-based studies only investigated a pre-selected list of metaphoric expressions, potentially rendering the analysis incomplete. Furthermore, some studies which only focused on lexis did not analyse how the lexical items may construct business concepts in terms of scenarios. The purpose of this research is to investigate metaphor used to construct business concepts in business research articles. 42 business research articles published in 2009-2010 from five journals ranked in the top-ten according to the 2007 journal impact factors (Thompson Reuters, 2008 constitute the data of this study. Semantic annotation software USAS (Rayson, 2008 was used to assist in the retrieval of metaphoric expressions. Furthermore, manual analysis of concordances was done to find metaphorical expressions that had not been captured by the semantic tags. The analysis of these metaphoric expressions was based on Conceptual Metaphor Theory (Lakoff & Johnson, 1980 and Metaphor Scenario (Musolff, 2006. Data analysis indicates that metaphor constructs business concepts as scenarios which have participants performing actions to reach their goal according to the SOURCE-PATH-GOAL schema of the source domains. At the centre of these scenarios, the BOUNDED SPACE source domain serves as a conceptual space or a setting for each scenario. Other source domains, which are WAR, SPORT, GAME, JOURNEY, MACHINE, LIVING ORGANISM, BUILDING and PHYSICAL FORCES, project the scenarios onto the space, forming interconnected and coherent scenarios of business discourse

  17. Preliminary analysis of Alvito-Odivelas reservoir system operation under climate change scenarios

    OpenAIRE

    2008-01-01

    The present study provides a preliminary analysis of the impact of climate change on a water resources system of Alentejo region in the South of Portugal. Regional climate model HadRM3P forced by the Global Circulation Model HadAM3P A2 of the Hadley Centre, is used to derive temperature and precipitation data, which in turn is used as input to hydrological model (SHETRAN) for simulation of future streamflow. Dynamic programming based models are used for operation of reservoir system in order ...

  18. Integrative Scenario Development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joerg A. Priess

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Scenarios are employed to address a large number of future environmental and socioeconomic challenges. We present a conceptual framework for the development of scenarios to integrate the objectives of different stakeholder groups. Based on the framework, land-use scenarios were developed to provide a common base for further research. At the same time, these scenarios assisted regional stakeholders to bring forward their concerns and arrive at a shared understanding of challenges between scientific and regional stakeholders, which allowed them to eventually support regional decision making. The focus on the integration of views and knowledge domains of different stakeholder groups, such as scientists and practitioners, required rigorous and repeated measures of quality control. The application of the integrative concept provided products for both stakeholder groups, and the process of scenario development facilitated cooperation and learning within both the scientist and practitioner groups as well as between the two groups.

  19. Scenarios for global emissions from air traffic. The development of regional and gridded (5 degrees x 5 degrees) emissions scenarios for aircraft and for surface sources, based on CPB scenarios and existing emission inventories for aircraft and surface sources

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Olivier JGJ; LAE

    1995-01-01

    An estimate was made of present global emissions from air traffic using statistical information on fuel consumption, aircraft types and applying emission factors for various compounds. To generate scenarios for future emissions from air traffic, assumptions were used regarding the development of the

  20. Conceiving Scenario-Based IS Support for Knowledge Synthesis: The Organization Architect

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kam Hou VAT

    2005-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the idea of creating information systems (IS support for knowledge work through the elaboration of typical organizational scenarios. Specifically, our research is driven by a belief that the design issues of IS support must be situated in the context of social processes in which, in a specific organizational scenario, a particular group of people can conceptualize their knowledge work and hence the purposeful action they wish to undertake. This provides the basis for ascertaining what information support is needed by those who undertake that action, and how modern information technology can help to provide that support. Thereby, designing IS support for knowledge work requires attention to the purposeful action which the IS serves, and hence to the meanings which make those particular actions meaningful and relevant to particular groups of people in a particular situation. This is often facilitated by the provision of an important enquiry process constantly attended to, and integrated into organizational activities by which IS professionals could learn of the organization's continual adjustments to its changing world. Our discussion here brings forth the notion of the learning organization information systems (LOIS, through which each member of the organization is enabled to create his or her own knowledge space, which is subject to some level of description, and thus may be architected and integrated into an organization. Importantly, in order to develop the various LOIS support for knowledge work, we need the correspondent organization scenarios to contextualize the IS design. And we attribute this development philosophy to the essence of systems thinking in conceiving IS support. The paper concludes by reiterating the work of the organization architect, which entails understanding, analyzing, designing, and communicating the most relevant parts of the organization and how they fit together.

  1. Entry modes and the impact of mobile microfinance at the Base of the Pyramid: Scenarios of “My Village Phone” in Egypt

    OpenAIRE

    Mostafa, Mohamad

    2010-01-01

    The expansion of mobile telecoms in the Egyptian market has contributed to different development paradigms. The entry mode and the way telecoms follow to access the Base of the Pyramid market in Egypt identifies which paradigm will take place in the future. Using the case of “My Village Phone” we developed a scenario analysis to explore the linkages between the entry modes and development paradigms. We found that “Pro-poor”, “Para-poor”, “Per-poor”, “Per-poor exports” and “Networked” are expe...

  2. Spectral Efficiency Analysis for Multicarrier Based 4G Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Silva, Nuno; Rahman, Muhammad Imadur; Frederiksen, Flemming Bjerge;

    2006-01-01

    In this paper, a spectral efficiency definition is proposed. Spectral efficiency for multicarrier based multiaccess techniques, such as OFDMA, MC-CDMA and OFDMA-CDM, is analyzed. Simulations for different indoor and outdoor scenarios are carried out. Based on the simulations, we have discussed ho...... different wireless channel’s condition affects the performance of a system in terms of spectral efficiency. Based on our analysis, we have also recommended different access techniques for different scenarios....

  3. Techno-economic analysis of receiver replacement scenarios in a parabolic trough field

    Science.gov (United States)

    Röger, Marc; Lüpfert, Eckhard; Caron, Simon; Dieckmann, Simon

    2016-05-01

    The heat loss of an evacuated parabolic trough receiver of solar thermal power plants ranges typically between values below 150 and 200 W/m at 350°C. Defects, such as glass breakage by wind events and coating degradation, anti-reflection coating degradation or hydrogen accumulation in the annulus, decrease the annual electricity production. This study examines the effect of different receiver performance loss scenarios on the energetic and economic output of a modern 150-MWel-parabolic trough plant with 7.5-hours molten-salt storage, located in Ma'an, Jordan over the whole lifetime by modeling it in an extended version of the software greenius. Compared to the reference scenario, a wind event in year 5 (10, 15) causing glass envelope breakage and consequential degradation of the selective coating of 5.6% of the receivers reduces the electricity output by 5.1% (3.8%, 2.5%), the net present value is reduced by 36.5% (23.1%, 13.1%). The payback time of receiver replacement is only 0.7 years and hence this measure is recommended. The highest negative impact on performance and net present value of a project has the hydrogen accumulation scenario (50% of field affected) in event year 5 (10,15) reducing net electric output by 10.7% (8.1%, 5.4%) and the net present value by 77.0% (48.7%, 27.6%). Replacement of the receivers or even better an inexpensive repair solution is an energetically and economically sensible solution. The option of investing in premium receivers with Xe-capsule during the construction phase is a viable option if the surplus cost for premium receivers is lower than 10 to 20 percent.

  4. Performance Analysis of Relays in LTE for a Realistic Suburban Deployment Scenario

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Coletti, Claudio; Mogensen, Preben; Irmer, Ralf

    2011-01-01

    -effectiveness have been widely investigated in the literature, considering mainly statistical deployment scenarios, like regular networks with uniform traffic distribution. This paper is envisaged to illustrate the performances of different relay technologies (In-Band/Out-band) in a realistic suburban network......Relays are likely to play an important role in the deployment of Beyond 3G networks, such as LTE-Advanced, thanks to the possibility of effectively extending Macro network coverage and fulfilling the expected high data-rate requirements. Up until now, the relay technology potential and its cost...... of a lower frequency carrier at the Macro layer guarantee better network coverage and capacity improvements....

  5. SCENARIOS SIMULATION OF COUPLING SYSTEM BETWEEN URBANIZATION AND ECO-ENVIRONMENT IN JIANGSU PROVINCE BASED ON SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODEL

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIU Yao-bin; LI Ren-dong; LI Chun-hua

    2005-01-01

    By means of ISM (Interpretative Structural Modeling) and SD (System Dynamics) methods, this paper made a system dynamics model of urbanization and eco-environment coupling in Jiangsu Province according to the implication and PSR (Pressure State Response) framework of urbanization and eeo-environment coupling. Moreover, five typical scenarios during 2000-2015 have been simulated and analyzed based on the time serial statistical data during 1990-2003 in Jiangsu, which indicates: firstly, there are significant differences between the results and the scenarios,and the five coupling models all have comparative advantages and drawbacks; secondly, in terms of the characteristics and regional development disparities of Jiangsu and the general rule of world urbanization process, this paper reveals that only when either population urbanization model or social urbanization model to be correspondingly adopted, the sustainable development among population, economy, urbanization and eeo-environment can be realized.

  6. Hybrid Map-Based Navigation Method for Unmanned Ground Vehicle in Urban Scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huiyan Chen

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available To reduce the data size of metric map and map matching computational cost in unmanned ground vehicle self-driving navigation in urban scenarios, a metric-topological hybrid map navigation system is proposed in this paper. According to the different positioning accuracy requirements, urban areas are divided into strong constraint (SC areas, such as roads with lanes, and loose constraint (LC areas, such as intersections and open areas. As direction of the self-driving vehicle is provided by traffic lanes and global waypoints in the road network, a simple topological map is fit for the navigation in the SC areas. While in the LC areas, the navigation of the self-driving vehicle mainly relies on the positioning information. Simultaneous localization and mapping technology is used to provide a detailed metric map in the LC areas, and a window constraint Markov localization algorithm is introduced to achieve accurate position using laser scanner. Furthermore, the real-time performance of the Markov algorithm is enhanced by using a constraint window to restrict the size of the state space. By registering the metric maps into the road network, a hybrid map of the urban scenario can be constructed. Real unmanned vehicle mapping and navigation tests demonstrated the capabilities of the proposed method.

  7. Increasing Plant Based Foods or Dairy Foods Differentially Affects Nutrient Intakes: Dietary Scenarios Using NHANES 2007-2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cifelli, Christopher J; Houchins, Jenny A; Demmer, Elieke; Fulgoni, Victor L

    2016-07-11

    Diets rich in plant foods and lower in animal-based products have garnered increased attention among researchers, dietitians and health professionals in recent years for their potential to, not only improve health, but also to lessen the environmental impact. However, the potential effects of increasing plant-based foods at the expense of animal-based foods on macro- and micronutrient nutrient adequacy in the U.S. diet is unknown. In addition, dairy foods are consistently under consumed, thus the impact of increased dairy on nutrient adequacy is important to measure. Accordingly, the objective of this study was to use national survey data to model three different dietary scenarios to assess the effects of increasing plant-based foods or dairy foods on macronutrient intake and nutrient adequacy. Data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2007-2010 for persons two years and older (n = 17,387) were used in all the analyses. Comparisons were made of usual intake of macronutrients and shortfall nutrients of three dietary scenarios that increased intakes by 100%: (i) plant-based foods; (ii) protein-rich plant-based foods (i.e., legumes, nuts, seeds, soy); and (iii) milk, cheese and yogurt. Scenarios (i) and (ii) had commensurate reductions in animal product intake. In both children (2-18 years) and adults (≥19 years), the percent not meeting the Estimated Average Requirement (EAR) decreased for vitamin C, magnesium, vitamin E, folate and iron when plant-based foods were increased. However the percent not meeting the EAR increased for calcium, protein, vitamin A, and vitamin D in this scenario. Doubling protein-rich plant-based foods had no effect on nutrient intake because they were consumed in very low quantities in the baseline diet. The dairy model reduced the percent not meeting the EAR for calcium, vitamin A, vitamin D, magnesium, and protein, while sodium and saturated fat levels increased. Our modeling shows that increasing plant-based

  8. Increasing Plant Based Foods or Dairy Foods Differentially Affects Nutrient Intakes: Dietary Scenarios Using NHANES 2007–2010

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher J. Cifelli

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Diets rich in plant foods and lower in animal-based products have garnered increased attention among researchers, dietitians and health professionals in recent years for their potential to, not only improve health, but also to lessen the environmental impact. However, the potential effects of increasing plant-based foods at the expense of animal-based foods on macro- and micronutrient nutrient adequacy in the U.S. diet is unknown. In addition, dairy foods are consistently under consumed, thus the impact of increased dairy on nutrient adequacy is important to measure. Accordingly, the objective of this study was to use national survey data to model three different dietary scenarios to assess the effects of increasing plant-based foods or dairy foods on macronutrient intake and nutrient adequacy. Data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES 2007–2010 for persons two years and older (n = 17,387 were used in all the analyses. Comparisons were made of usual intake of macronutrients and shortfall nutrients of three dietary scenarios that increased intakes by 100%: (i plant-based foods; (ii protein-rich plant-based foods (i.e., legumes, nuts, seeds, soy; and (iii milk, cheese and yogurt. Scenarios (i and (ii had commensurate reductions in animal product intake. In both children (2–18 years and adults (≥19 years, the percent not meeting the Estimated Average Requirement (EAR decreased for vitamin C, magnesium, vitamin E, folate and iron when plant-based foods were increased. However the percent not meeting the EAR increased for calcium, protein, vitamin A, and vitamin D in this scenario. Doubling protein-rich plant-based foods had no effect on nutrient intake because they were consumed in very low quantities in the baseline diet. The dairy model reduced the percent not meeting the EAR for calcium, vitamin A, vitamin D, magnesium, and protein, while sodium and saturated fat levels increased. Our modeling shows that

  9. [Synergistic emission reduction of chief air pollutants and greenhouse gases-based on scenario simulations of energy consumptions in Beijing].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Yuan-bo; Li, Wei

    2013-05-01

    It is one of the common targets and important tasks for energy management and environmental control of Beijing to improve urban air quality while reducing the emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG). Here, based on the interim and long term developmental planning and energy structure of the city, three energy consumption scenarios in low, moderate and high restrictions were designed by taking the potential energy saving policies and environmental targets into account. The long-range energy alternatives planning (LEAP) model was employed to predict and evaluate reduction effects of the chief air pollutants and GHG during 2010 to 2020 under the three given scenarios. The results showed that if urban energy consumption system was optimized or adjusted by exercising energy saving and emission reduction and pollution control measures, the predicted energy uses will be reduced by 10 to 30 million tons of coal equivalents by 2020. Under the two energy scenarios with moderate and high restrictions, the anticipated emissions of SO2, NOx, PM10, PM2.5, VOC and GHG will be respectively reduced to 71 to 100.2, 159.2 to 218.7, 89.8 to 133.8, 51.4 to 96.0, 56.4 to 74.8 and 148 200 to 164 700 thousand tons. Correspondingly, when compared with the low-restriction scenario, the reducing rate will be 53% to 67% , 50% to 64% , 33% to 55% , 25% to 60% , 41% to 55% and 26% to 34% respectively. Furthermore, based on a study of synergistic emission reduction of the air pollutants and GHG, it was proposed that the adjustment and control of energy consumptions shall be intensively developed in the three sectors of industry, transportation and services. In this way the synergistic reduction of the emissions of chief air pollutants and GHG will be achieved; meanwhile the pressures of energy demands may be deliberately relieved.

  10. Spatial, temporal and frequency based climate change assessment in Columbia River Basin using multi downscaled-scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rana, Arun; Moradkhani, Hamid

    2016-07-01

    Uncertainties in climate modelling are well documented in literature. Global Climate Models (GCMs) are often used to downscale the climatic parameters on a regional scale. In the present work, we have analyzed the changes in precipitation and temperature for future scenario period of 2070-2099 with respect to historical period of 1970-2000 from statistically downscaled GCM projections in Columbia River Basin (CRB). Analysis is performed using two different statistically downscaled climate projections (with ten GCMs downscaled products each, for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, from CMIP5 dataset) namely, those from the Bias Correction and Spatial Downscaling (BCSD) technique generated at Portland State University and from the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) technique, generated at University of Idaho, totaling to 40 different scenarios. The two datasets for BCSD and MACA are downscaled from observed data for both scenarios projections i.e. RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Analysis is performed using spatial change (yearly scale), temporal change (monthly scale), percentile change (seasonal scale), quantile change (yearly scale), and wavelet analysis (yearly scale) in the future period from the historical period, respectively, at a scale of 1/16th of degree for entire CRB region. Results have indicated in varied degree of spatial change pattern for the entire Columbia River Basin, especially western part of the basin. At temporal scales, winter precipitation has higher variability than summer and vice versa for temperature. Most of the models have indicated considerate positive change in quantiles and percentiles for both precipitation and temperature. Wavelet analysis provided insights into possible explanation to changes in precipitation.

  11. Climate change effects on airborne pathogenic bioaerosol concentrations: a scenario analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Leuken, J P G; Swart, A N; Droogers, P; van Pul, A; Heederik, D; Havelaar, A H

    2016-01-01

    The most recent IPCC report presented further scientific evidence for global climate change in the twenty-first century. Important secondary effects of climate change include those on water resource availability, agricultural yields, urban healthy living, biodiversity, ecosystems, food security, and public health. The aim of this explorative study was to determine the range of expected airborne pathogen concentrations during a single outbreak or release in a future climate compared to a historical climatic period (1981-2010). We used five climate scenarios for the periods 2016-2045 and 2036-2065 defined by the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute and two conversion tools to create hourly future meteorological data sets. We modelled season-averaged airborne pathogen concentrations by means of an atmospheric dispersion model and compared these data to historical (1981-2010) modelled concentrations. Our results showed that modelled concentrations were modified several percentage points on average as a result of climate change. On average, concentrations were reduced in four out of five scenarios. Wind speed and global radiation were of critical importance, which determine horizontal and vertical dilution. Modelled concentrations decreased on average, but large positive and negative hourly averaged effects were calculated (from -67 to +639 %). This explorative study shows that further research should include pathogen inactivation and more detailed probability functions on precipitation, snow, and large-scale circulation.

  12. Regional analysis of social characteristics for evacuation resource planning: ARkStorm scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wein, Anne; Ratliff, Jamie L.; Allan Baez,; Sleeter, Rachel

    2016-01-01

    Local planning is insufficient for regional catastrophes; regional exercises are needed to test emergency plans and decision-making structures. The ARkStorm scenario would trigger a mass evacuation that would be complicated by the social characteristics of populations [e.g., vehicle ownership, age, poverty, English language limitation (ELL), and shelter needs]. Land cover data and dasymetric mapping improves the allocation of residential populations and their social characteristics to the ARkStorm flood zone in 21 counties in California. Numbers and concentrations of county, urban, and rural residents exposed to flooding as well as populations in and out of the scenario flood zone are profiled. The results inform mass evacuation planning by providing a means to (1) examine the sufficiency of mutual aid agreements, (2) underscore planning for carless populations, and (3) tailor multilingual communication strategies. The various geographical distinctions emphasize different challenges throughout the region. It will be important to investigate behavioral responses to warnings, identify evacuation constraints (e.g., shelter capacity versus need), and obtain comparable data on transient populations.

  13. Analysis of baseline and alternative air quality scenarios for Pakistan: an integrated approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mir, Kaleem Anwar; Purohit, Pallav; Goldstein, Gary A; Balasubramanian, Rajasekhar

    2016-11-01

    This study aims to assess the current and future air pollution and associated health impacts in Pakistan. In this study, the Pakistan Integrated Energy Model (Pak-IEM) is used to assess current and future energy consumption in Pakistan. To assess air pollution levels and associated health impacts, we used the Greenhouse gas and Air pollution INteractions and Synergies (GAINS) model. A linkage has been established between both the models to feed the energy outputs from Pak-IEM into GAINS for exploring different scenarios. Mainly, the emissions of three air pollutants (SO2, NOx, and PM2.5) as well as the associated health impacts of increased emissions are assessed. Baseline emission scenario (BES) shows a growth in emissions of SO2, NOx, and PM2.5 by a factor of 2.4, 2.2, and 2.5 between 2007 and 2030. In terms of health impacts, by 2030, annual mean concentrations of fine particles (PM2.5) would increase to more than 150 μg/m(3) in some parts of Punjab region of Pakistan, for which loss in statistical life expectancy is calculated to increase from 30 to 60 months in 2007 up to 60-100 months in 2030 on average.

  14. Analysis of Prominent Reactive Routing Protocols using Self Created Network Scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amandeep Makkar

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Mobile Adhoc Network is characterized by multi-hop wireless connectivity and dynamic topology. The mobile nodes in this network communicate with each other without established infrastructure. Since the wireless links are highly error prone and can go down frequently due to mobility of nodes, therefore, routing in MANET is a critical task due to highly dynamic environment. In this research paper, pattern analysis of two on-demand routing protocols has been done by presenting their functionality. A simulation model with TCP and UDP connections has been developed to study inter-layer interactions and their performance implications. The performance differential parameters have been analyzed using metrics like PDR with varying speed and pause time. Based on the simulation results, recommendations have been made about the significance of either protocol in various situations. The study reveals that DSR protocol outperforms AODV protocol under low as well as high mobility situation in case of UDP as well as TCP connections. AODV protocol also starts performing well under high mobility situation. DSR protocol outperforms AODV protocol when the connections are through UDP and this analysis is independent of pause time. AODV protocol outperforms the DSR protocol when the connections are through TCP and the pause time is increased up to a large extent.

  15. THE EFFECTS OF SCENARIO BASED BLENDED LEARNING ENVIRONMENT ON ATTITUDES OF PRESERVICE TECHNOLOGIES TEACHERS TOWARD TEACHING PROFESSION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Serap SAMSA

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study was to define the effects of experiences that have been acquired at the Teacher Experience Course and skills acquired at the Blended Learning Environment on attitudes of preservice technologies teachers toward teaching profession. In the study, a pretest-posttest quasi-experimental design was used. The study group is consisting of 37 students who were registered for Teacher Experience Course of Computer Education and Instructional Technology, Faculty of Educational Science, Ankara University. In order to collect data a 5 point likert scale with 34 items, which is developed by Üstüner (2006, was used. The scale was used both at the beginning and at the end of the semester. At the beginning of the semester students who would go to the public schools institutions once a week were randomly assigned to one of the five schools. The study took 10 weeks. Beginning from 4th week, students were given scenarios once a week, totally 8 scenarios. The main aim of these scenarios was to assist students in order to improve their standpoints according to the problems that they encountered in the school. Scenarios and solutions were discussed at the face to face courses, semiweekly. The period of Teaching Practice and generated solutions according to presented problems were assessed with students at the last week of the study. Descriptive statistics and t-test statistical technique were used to analysis of data. The result of the study indicated that there is a significant difference in favour of average points of posttest.

  16. Acoustic data analysis and scenario over watch from an aerostat at the NATO SET-153 field experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reiff, Christian; Scanlon, Michael

    2012-06-01

    The purpose of the NATO SET-153 field experiment was to provide an opportunity to demonstrate multiple sensor technologies in an urban environment and determine integration capabilities for future development. The Army Research Laboratory (ARL) experimental aerostat was used primarily as a persistent over watch capability as a substitute for a UAV. Continuous video was recorded on the aerostat and segments of video were captured of the scenarios on the ground that the camera was following manually. Some of the segments showing scenario activities will be presented. The captured pictures and video frames have telemetry in the headers that provides the UTM time and the Inertial Navigation System (INS) GPS location and the inertial roll, pitch, and yaw as well as the camera gimbal pan and tilt angles. The timing is useful to synchronize the images with the scenario events providing activity ground truth. The INS, GPS, and camera gimbal angle values can be used with the acoustic solution for the location of a sound source to determine the relative accuracy of the solution if the camera is pointed at the sound source. This method will be confirmed by the use of a propane cannon whose GPS location is logged. During the field experiment, other interesting acoustic events such as vehicle convoys, platoon level firefights with vehicles using blanks, and a UAV helicopter were recorded and will be presented in a quick analysis.

  17. An attempt to solve the hierarchy problem based on gravity-gauge-Higgs unification scenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hasegawa, K. [Graduate School of Science and Technology, Kobe University, Rokkodai, Nada, Kobe 657-8501 (Japan)]. E-mail: kouhei@phys.sci.kobe-u.ac.jp; Lim, C.S. [Department of Physics, Kobe University, Rokkodai, Nada, Kobe 657-8501 (Japan)]. E-mail: lim@phys.sci.kobe-u.ac.jp; Maru, Nobuhito [Theoretical Physics Laboratory, RIKEN, Wako, Saitama 351-0198 (Japan)]. E-mail: maru@riken.jp

    2004-12-16

    We discuss a possible scenario to solve the hierarchy problem, in which 4-dimensional bosonic fields with all possible integer spins, graviton, gauge boson and Higgs are unified in a framework of a gravity theory with extra dimensions. The Higgs is identified with the extra space component of the metric tensor. One-loop quantum effect on the Higgs mass-squared is explicitly calculated in a five-dimensional gravity theory compactified on S{sup 1}. We obtain a finite calculable Higgs mass-squared without suffering from quadratic divergence, by virtue of general coordinate transformation invariance, which is argued to be guaranteed by the summation over all Kaluza-Klein modes running in the loop diagrams.

  18. A Two-Account Life Insurance Model for Scenario-Based Valuation Including Event Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Ninna Reitzel; Schomacker, Kristian Juul

    2015-01-01

    and unit-linked insurance. By use of a two-account model, we are able to illustrate general concepts without making the model too abstract. To allow for complicated financial markets without dramatically increasing the mathematical complexity, we focus on economic scenarios. We illustrate the use of our......Using a two-account model with event risk, we model life insurance contracts taking into account both guaranteed and non-guaranteed payments in participating life insurance as well as in unit-linked insurance. Here, event risk is used as a generic term for life insurance events, such as death...... product types. This enables comparison of participating life insurance products and unit-linked insurance products, thus building a bridge between the two different ways of formalizing life insurance products. Finally, our model distinguishes itself from the existing literature by taking into account...

  19. A Scenario-Based Mobile Application for Robot-Assisted Smart Digital Homes

    CERN Document Server

    Manashty, Ali Reza; Jahromi, Zahra Forootan

    2010-01-01

    Smart homes are becoming more popular, as every day a new home appliance can be digitally controlled. Smart Digital Homes are using a server to make interaction with all the possible devices in one place, on a computer or webpage. In this paper we designed and implemented a mobile application using Windows Mobile platform that can connect to the controlling server of a Smart Home and grants the access to the Smart Home devices and robots everywhere possible. UML diagrams are presented to illustrate the application design process. Robots are also considered as devices that are able to interact to other object and devices. Scenarios are defined as a set of sequential actions to help manage different tasks all in one place. The mobile application can connect to the server using GPRS mobile internet and Short Message System (SMS). Interactive home map is also designed for easier status-checking and interacting with the devices using the mobile phones.

  20. An Empirically grounded Agent Based simulator for the Air Traffic Management in the SESAR scenario

    CERN Document Server

    Gurtner, Gérald; Ducci, Marco; Miccichè, Salvatore

    2016-01-01

    In this paper we present a simulator allowing to perform policy experiments relative to the air traffic management. Different SESAR solutions can be implemented in the model to see the reaction of the different stakeholders as well as other relevant metrics (delays, safety, etc). The model describes both the strategic phase associated to the planning of the flight trajectories and the tactical modifications occurring in the en-route phase. An implementation of the model is available as open-source and freely accessible by any user. More specifically, different procedures related to business trajectories and free-routing are tested and we illustrate the capabilities of the model on airspace implementing these concepts. After performing numerical simulations with the model, we show that in a free-routing scenario the controllers perform less operations although they are dispersed over a larger portion of the airspace. This can potentially increase the complexity of conflict detection and resolution for controll...

  1. Differentiating the effects of climate and land use change on European biodiversity: A scenario analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vermaat, Jan E; Hellmann, Fritz A; van Teeffelen, Astrid J A; van Minnen, Jelle; Alkemade, Rob; Billeter, Regula; Beierkuhnlein, Carl; Boitani, Luigi; Cabeza, Mar; Feld, Christian K; Huntley, Brian; Paterson, James; WallisDeVries, Michiel F

    2017-04-01

    Current observed as well as projected changes in biodiversity are the result of multiple interacting factors, with land use and climate change often marked as most important drivers. We aimed to disentangle the separate impacts of these two for sets of vascular plant, bird, butterfly and dragonfly species listed as characteristic for European dry grasslands and wetlands, two habitats of high and threatened biodiversity. We combined articulations of the four frequently used SRES climate scenarios and associated land use change projections for 2030, and assessed their impact on population trends in species (i.e. whether they would probably be declining, stable or increasing). We used the BIOSCORE database tool, which allows assessment of the effects of a range of environmental pressures including climate change as well as land use change. We updated the species lists included in this tool for our two habitat types. We projected species change for two spatial scales: the EU27 covering most of Europe, and the more restricted biogeographic region of 'Continental Europe'. Other environmental pressures modelled for the four scenarios than land use and climate change generally did not explain a significant part of the variance in species richness change. Changes in characteristic bird and dragonfly species were least pronounced. Land use change was the most important driver for vascular plants in both habitats and spatial scales, leading to a decline in 50-100% of the species included, whereas climate change was more important for wetland dragonflies and birds (40-50 %). Patterns of species decline were similar in continental Europe and the EU27 for wetlands but differed for dry grasslands, where a substantially lower proportion of butterflies and birds declined in continental Europe, and 50 % of bird species increased, probably linked to a projected increase in semi-natural vegetation. In line with the literature using climate envelope models, we found little divergence

  2. Performance analysis of Xen virtual machines in real-world scenarios

    CERN Document Server

    Heissler, Adrian

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents results of the performance benchmarks of the Open Source hypervisor Xen. The study focuses on the network related performance as well as on the application related performance of multiple virtual machines that were running on the same Xen hypervisor. The comparison was carried out using a self-developed benchmark suite that consists of easily available Open Source tools. The goal is to measure the performance of the hypervisor in typical real-world application scenarios when used for "mass virtual hosting", such as hosting solutions of so called virtual private servers for small-to-medium sized businesses environments. The results of the benchmarks show, that the tested Xen setup offers good performance with respect to network traffic stress tests, but only 75% of the performance of the non-virtualized reference environment. This application performance score decreases as more virtual machines are running simultaneously.

  3. Analysis of sheltering and evacuation strategies for an urban nuclear detonation scenario.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yoshimura, Ann S.; Brandt, Larry D.

    2009-05-01

    Development of an effective strategy for shelter and evacuation is among the most important planning tasks in preparation for response to a low yield, nuclear detonation in an urban area. This study examines shelter-evacuate policies and effectiveness focusing on a 10 kt scenario in Los Angeles. The goal is to provide technical insights that can support development of urban response plans. Results indicate that extended shelter-in-place can offer the most robust protection when high quality shelter exists. Where less effective shelter is available and the fallout radiation intensity level is high, informed evacuation at the appropriate time can substantially reduce the overall dose to personnel. However, uncertainties in the characteristics of the fallout region and in the exit route can make evacuation a risky strategy. Analyses indicate that only a relatively small fraction of the total urban population may experience significant dose reduction benefits from even a well-informed evacuation plan.

  4. Analysis of sheltering and evacuation strategies for a Chicago nuclear detonation scenario.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yoshimura, Ann S.; Brandt, Larry D.

    2011-09-01

    Development of an effective strategy for shelter and evacuation is among the most important planning tasks in preparation for response to a low yield, nuclear detonation in an urban area. Extensive studies have been performed and guidance published that highlight the key principles for saving lives following such an event. However, region-specific data are important in the planning process as well. This study examines some of the unique regional factors that impact planning for a 10 kt detonation in Chicago. The work utilizes a single scenario to examine regional impacts as well as the shelter-evacuate decision alternatives at selected exemplary points. For many Chicago neighborhoods, the excellent assessed shelter quality available make shelter-in-place or selective transit to a nearby shelter a compelling post-detonation strategy.

  5. Scenario Grouping and Classification Methodology for Postprocessing of Data Generated by Integrated Deterministic-Probabilistic Safety Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergey Galushin

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Integrated Deterministic-Probabilistic Safety Assessment (IDPSA combines deterministic model of a nuclear power plant with a method for exploration of the uncertainty space. Huge amount of data is generated in the process of such exploration. It is very difficult to “manually” process and extract from such data information that can be used by a decision maker for risk-informed characterization, understanding, and eventually decision making on improvement of the system safety and performance. Such understanding requires an approach for interpretation, grouping of similar scenario evolutions, and classification of the principal characteristics of the events that contribute to the risk. In this work, we develop an approach for classification and characterization of failure domains. The method is based on scenario grouping, clustering, and application of decision trees for characterization of the influence of timing and order of events. We demonstrate how the proposed approach is used to classify scenarios that are amenable to treatment with Boolean logic in classical Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA from those where timing and order of events determine process evolution and eventually violation of safety criteria. The efficiency of the approach has been verified with application to the SARNET benchmark exercise on the effectiveness of hydrogen management in the containment.

  6. Impacts and responses to sea-level rise: a global analysis of the SRES scenarios over the twenty-first century.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicholls, Robert J; Tol, Richard S J

    2006-04-15

    Taking the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) climate and socio-economic scenarios (A1FI, A2, B1 and B2 'future worlds'), the potential impacts of sea-level rise through the twenty-first century are explored using complementary impact and economic analysis methods at the global scale. These methods have never been explored together previously. In all scenarios, the exposure and hence the impact potential due to increased flooding by sea-level rise increases significantly compared to the base year (1990). While mitigation reduces impacts, due to the lagged response of sea-level rise to atmospheric temperature rise, impacts cannot be avoided during the twenty-first century by this response alone. Cost-benefit analyses suggest that widespread protection will be an economically rational response to land loss due to sea-level rise in the four SRES futures that are considered. The most vulnerable future worlds to sea-level rise appear to be the A2 and B2 scenarios, which primarily reflects differences in the socio-economic situation (coastal population, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and GDP/capita), rather than the magnitude of sea-level rise. Small islands and deltaic settings stand out as being more vulnerable as shown in many earlier analyses. Collectively, these results suggest that human societies will have more choice in how they respond to sea-level rise than is often assumed. However, this conclusion needs to be tempered by recognition that we still do not understand these choices and significant impacts remain possible. Future worlds which experience larger rises in sea-level than considered here (above 35 cm), more extreme events, a reactive rather than proactive approach to adaptation, and where GDP growth is slower or more unequal than in the SRES futures remain a concern. There is considerable scope for further research to better understand these diverse issues.

  7. Carbon Footprint of Housing in the Leeds City Region - A Best Practice Scenario Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barrett, John; Dawkins, Elena (Stockholm Environment Inst. (Sweden))|(Univ. of York, Heslington, York YO10 5DD (United Kingdom))

    2008-06-15

    The Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) was commissioned by the Environment Agency to carry out a carbon footprint analysis of the housing sector, using the Leeds City Region (LCR) as an example. The aim was to determine our ability to meet the 80 per cent by 2050 challenge of energy efficiency in the housing sector. The study relates specifically to LCR but its findings will help any planning and development teams make the right decisions and gain the resources necessary to meet carbon budgets at regional and local levels. With a growing population and an additional 263,000 housing units to be built within LCR by 2026, the housing sector would need to reduce its expected total carbon dioxide emissions by 38 million tonnes between 2010 and 2026 to be on track for 80 per cent savings in 2050. The report outlines the most detailed analysis to date of the required measures to deliver a growth-based regional housing strategy, alongside reducing carbon emissions. If the city region's new and existing housing is to attain the levels of energy efficiency necessary to deliver these carbon savings, big changes will be required in the way we build, maintain and run our homes over the next 20 years. There are pockets of good practice already in the region and the study shows that by combining innovative measures on construction standards, improvements to existing housing, low and zero carbon technologies and changing behaviour of householders, LCR can achieve the necessary savings to meet its carbon budget

  8. Moral foundations vignettes: a standardized stimulus database of scenarios based on moral foundations theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clifford, Scott; Iyengar, Vijeth; Cabeza, Roberto; Sinnott-Armstrong, Walter

    2015-12-01

    Research on the emotional, cognitive, and social determinants of moral judgment has surged in recent years. The development of moral foundations theory (MFT) has played an important role, demonstrating the breadth of morality. Moral psychology has responded by investigating how different domains of moral judgment are shaped by a variety of psychological factors. Yet, the discipline lacks a validated set of moral violations that span the moral domain, creating a barrier to investigating influences on judgment and how their neural bases might vary across the moral domain. In this paper, we aim to fill this gap by developing and validating a large set of moral foundations vignettes (MFVs). Each vignette depicts a behavior violating a particular moral foundation and not others. The vignettes are controlled on many dimensions including syntactic structure and complexity making them suitable for neuroimaging research. We demonstrate the validity of our vignettes by examining respondents' classifications of moral violations, conducting exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis, and demonstrating the correspondence between the extracted factors and existing measures of the moral foundations. We expect that the MFVs will be beneficial for a wide variety of behavioral and neuroimaging investigations of moral cognition.

  9. Teaching Scenario-Based Planning for Sustainable Landscape Development: An Evaluation of Learning Effects in the Cagliari Studio Workshop

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian Albert

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the contributions of an intensive educational workshop to advance students’ understanding and skills for collaborative, scenario-based landscape planning. The research design involves a case study workshop with thirty international students and several regional experts as well as a multi-stage, in-process evaluation. The workshop resulted in six different alternative futures for the region of Cagliari, Italy, and a seventh combined version that was considered best by regional reviewers. The students’ learning evaluation showed substantial advances in their relevant understanding and skills. Key aspects of the workshop pedagogy and the evaluation are discussed, and recommendations for future applications presented.

  10. The multiscale importance of road segments in a network disruption scenario: a risk-based approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freiria, Susana; Tavares, Alexandre O; Pedro Julião, Rui

    2015-03-01

    This article addresses the problem of the multiscale importance of road networks, with the aim of helping to establish a more resilient network in the event of a road disruption scenario. A new model for identifying the most important roads is described and applied on a local and regional scale. The work presented here represents a step forward, since it focuses on the interaction between identifying the most important roads in a network that connect people and health services, the specificity of the natural hazards that threaten the normal functioning of the network, and an assessment of the consequences of three real-world interruptions from a multiscale perspective. The case studies concern three different past events: road interruptions due to a flood, a forest fire, and a mass movement. On the basis of the results obtained, it is possible to establish the roads for which risk management should be a priority. The multiscale perspective shows that in a road interruption the regional system may have the capacity to reorganize itself, although the interruption may have consequences for local dynamics. Coordination between local and regional scales is therefore important. The model proposed here allows for the scaling of emergency response facilities and human and physical resources. It represents an innovative approach to defining priorities, not only in the prevention phase but also in terms of the response to natural disasters, such as awareness of the consequences of road disruption for the rescue services sent out to local communities.

  11. Scenario Based Municipal Wastewater Estimation: Development and Application of a Dynamic Simulation Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yong Zhang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper develops causal loop diagrams and a system dynamics model for estimation of wastewater quantity changes as a function of future socioeconomic development and the municipal water environment of the city under the influence of several key factors. Using Wuhan (a city with population more than 10 million in China as a case study, the variability of Wuhan’s wastewater quantity and water environment is modeled under different development patterns by year 2030. Nine future scenarios are designed by assigning different values to those key factors, including GDP growth rate, water consumption of annual ten thousand GDP, and wastewater treatment fee. The results show that (1 GDP growth leads to an increase in municipal wastewater quantity, but an increase in wastewater treatment fee can be in favor of reducing urban water pollution, and (2 the impact of per ten thousand yuan GDP water consumption on the amount of municipal wastewater is larger in the near future, while the impact of GDP growth rate is much larger in the long term. The dynamic model has proven to be reliable for simulating the municipal wastewater changes, and it could help decision makers to make the scientific and reasonable decisions.

  12. Investigating Impacts of Alternative Crop Market Scenarios on Land Use Change with an Agent-Based Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Deng Ding

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available We developed an agent-based model (ABM to simulate farmers’ decisions on crop type and fertilizer application in response to commodity and biofuel crop prices. Farm profit maximization constrained by farmers’ profit expectations for land committed to biofuel crop production was used as the decision rule. Empirical parameters characterizing farmers’ profit expectations were derived from an agricultural landowners and operators survey and integrated in the ABM. The integration of crop production cost models and the survey information in the ABM is critical to producing simulations that can provide realistic insights into agricultural land use planning and policy making. Model simulations were run with historical market prices and alternative market scenarios for corn price, soybean to corn price ratio, switchgrass price, and switchgrass to corn stover ratio. The results of the comparison between simulated cropland percentage and crop rotations with satellite-based land cover data suggest that farmers may be underestimating the effects that continuous corn production has on yields. The simulation results for alternative market scenarios based on a survey of agricultural land owners and operators in the Clear Creek Watershed in eastern Iowa show that farmers see cellulosic biofuel feedstock production in the form of perennial grasses or corn stover as a more risky enterprise than their current crop production systems, likely because of market and production risks and lock in effects. As a result farmers do not follow a simple farm-profit maximization rule.

  13. Scenario development methodologies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eng, T. [Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co., Stockholm (Sweden); Hudson, J. [Rock Engineering Consultants, Welwyn Garden City, Herts (United Kingdom); Stephansson, O. [Royal Inst. of Tech., Stockholm (Sweden). Div. of Engineering Geology; Skagius, K.; Wiborgh, M. [Kemakta, Stockholm (Sweden)

    1994-11-01

    In the period 1981-1994, SKB has studied several methodologies to systematize and visualize all the features, events and processes (FEPs) that can influence a repository for radioactive waste in the future. All the work performed is based on the terminology and basic findings in the joint SKI/SKB work on scenario development presented in the SKB Technical Report 89-35. The methodologies studied are (a) Event tree analysis, (b) Influence diagrams and (c) Rock Engineering Systems (RES) matrices. Each one of the methodologies is explained in this report as well as examples of applications. One chapter is devoted to a comparison between the two most promising methodologies, namely: Influence diagrams and the RES methodology. In conclusion a combination of parts of the Influence diagram and the RES methodology is likely to be a promising approach. 26 refs.

  14. Parameter variation and scenario analysis in impact assessments of emerging energy technologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breunig, Hanna Marie

    There is a global need for energy technologies that reduce the adverse impacts of societal progress and that address today's challenges without creating tomorrow's problems. Life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) can support technology developers in achieving these prerequisites of sustainability by providing a systems perspective. However, modeling the early-stage scale up and impacts of technology systems may lead to unreliable or incomplete results due to a lack of representative technical, spatial, and temporal data. The goal of this dissertation is to support the acceleration of clean energy technology development by providing information about the regional variation of impacts and benefits resulting from plausible deployment scenarios. Three emerging energy technologies are selected as case studies: (1) brine management for carbon dioxide sequestration; (2) carbon dioxide capture, utilization, and sequestration; (3) stationary fuel cells for combined heat and power in commercial buildings. In all three case studies, priority areas are identified where more reliable data and models are necessary for reducing uncertainty, and vital information is revealed on how impacts vary spatially and temporally. Importantly, moving away from default technology and waste management hierarchies as a source of data fosters goal-driven systems thinking which in turn leads to the discovery of technology improvement potentials.

  15. Radioactive bone cement for the treatment of spinal metastases: a dosimetric analysis of simulated clinical scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaneko, T. S.; Sehgal, V.; Skinner, H. B.; Al-Ghazi, M. S. A. L.; Ramsinghani, N. S.; Marquez Miranda, M.; Keyak, J. H.

    2012-07-01

    Vertebral metastases are a common manifestation of many cancers, potentially leading to vertebral collapse and neurological complications. Conventional treatment often involves percutaneous vertebroplasty/kyphoplasty followed by external beam radiation therapy. As a more convenient alternative, we have introduced radioactive bone cement, i.e. bone cement incorporating a radionuclide. In this study, we used a previously developed Monte Carlo radiation transport modeling method to evaluate dose distributions from phosphorus-32 radioactive cement in simulated clinical scenarios. Isodose curves were generally concentric about the surface of bone cement injected into cadaveric vertebrae, indicating that dose distributions are relatively predictable, thus facilitating treatment planning (cement formulation and dosimetry method are patent pending). Model results indicated that a therapeutic dose could be delivered to tumor/bone within ∼4 mm of the cement surface while maintaining a safe dose to radiosensitive tissue beyond this distance. This therapeutic range should be sufficient to treat target volumes within the vertebral body when tumor ablation or other techniques are used to create a cavity into which the radioactive cement can be injected. With further development, treating spinal metastases with radioactive bone cement may become a clinically useful and convenient alternative to the conventional two-step approach of percutaneous strength restoration followed by radiotherapy.

  16. Future Residential Water Heating Prospects in Brazil: A Scenario Building Ground Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Felipe de Albuquerque Sgarbi

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available In Brazil, electricity is the prime energy carrier for bath shower heating purposes. However, since analyses indicate that expansion of the country´s electricity generation capacity shall spruce from an increased non-renewable sources’ stake in detriment to that of hydroelectricity, high electricity consumption rates that spring from home end uses of the kind have drawn the attention of those who are involved with local energy planning. Furthermore, massive use of electric showers in a short timeframe largely drive electricity demands to culminate in peak loads. For water heating purposes, this context has favoured an alternative to electricity, deemed feasible from both an efficiency and energy infrastructure standpoint: promote fuel gas consumption (liquefied petroleum gas and natural gas in particular. A scenario methodology is herein employed to map electric shower use related variables and players and assess the future behaviour of the core elements that condition resorting to this technology. Thereafter, strategies and opportunities to promote the rational consumption of the country´s power sources ground on the increased use of fuel gases for residential water heating purposes are discussed. 

  17. A Cloud Robotics Based Service for Managing RPAS in Emergency, Rescue and Hazardous Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silvagni, Mario; Chiaberge, Marcello; Sanguedolce, Claudio; Dara, Gianluca

    2016-04-01

    Cloud robotics and cloud services are revolutionizing not only the ICT world but also the robotics industry, giving robots more computing capabilities, storage and connection bandwidth while opening new scenarios that blend the physical to the digital world. In this vision, new IT architectures are required to manage robots, retrieve data from them and create services to interact with users. Among all the robots this work is mainly focused on flying robots, better known as drones, UAV (Unmanned Aerial Vehicle) or RPAS (Remotely Piloted Aircraft Systems). The cloud robotics approach shifts the concept of having a single local "intelligence" for every single UAV, as a unique device that carries out onboard all the computation and storage processes, to a more powerful "centralized brain" located in the cloud. This breakthrough opens new scenarios where UAVs are agents, relying on remote servers for most of their computational load and data storage, creating a network of devices where they can share knowledge and information. Many applications, using UAVs, are growing as interesting and suitable devices for environment monitoring. Many services can be build fetching data from UAVs, such as telemetry, video streaming, pictures or sensors data; once. These services, part of the IT architecture, can be accessed via web by other devices or shared with other UAVs. As test cases of the proposed architecture, two examples are reported. In the first one a search and rescue or emergency management, where UAVs are required for monitoring intervention, is shown. In case of emergency or aggression, the user requests the emergency service from the IT architecture, providing GPS coordinates and an identification number. The IT architecture uses a UAV (choosing among the available one according to distance, service status, etc.) to reach him/her for monitoring and support operations. In the meantime, an officer will use the service to see the current position of the UAV, its

  18. Exposure scenarios for workers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marquart, Hans; Northage, Christine; Money, Chris

    2007-12-01

    The new European chemicals legislation REACH (Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation and restriction of Chemicals) requires the development of Exposure Scenarios describing the conditions and risk management measures needed for the safe use of chemicals. Such Exposure Scenarios should integrate considerations of both human health and the environment. Specific aspects are relevant for worker exposure. Gathering information on the uses of the chemical is an important step in developing an Exposure Scenario. In-house information at manufacturers is an important source. Downstream users can contribute information through direct contact or through their associations. Relatively simple approaches (Tier 1 tools, such as the ECETOC Targeted Risk Assessment and the model EASE) can be used to develop broad Exposure Scenarios that cover many use situations. These approaches rely on the categorisation of just a few determinants, including only a small number of risk management measures. Such approaches have a limited discriminatory power and are rather conservative. When the hazard of the substance or the complexity of the exposure situation require a more in-depth approach, further development of the Exposure Scenarios with Tier 2 approaches is needed. Measured data sets of worker exposure are very valuable in a Tier 2 approach. Some downstream user associations have attempted to build Exposure Scenarios based on measured data sets. Generic Tier 2 tools for developing Exposure Scenarios do not exist yet. To enable efficient development of the worker exposure part of Exposure Scenarios a further development of Tier 1 and Tier 2 tools is needed. Special attention should be given to user friendliness and to the validity (boundaries) of the approaches. The development of standard worker exposure descriptions or full Exposure Scenarios by downstream user branches in cooperation with manufacturers and importers is recommended.

  19. A simulation method for the stability analysis of landscape scenarios by using a NetLogo application in GIS environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gobattoni, Federica; Lauro, Giuliana; Leone, Antonio; Monaco, Roberto; Pelorosso, Raffaele

    2010-05-01

    Landscape continually evolves under the influence of a complex and broad range of natural processes, directly or indirectly determined by land use, but also under the impact of anthropic actions of planning and territorial management. While processes such as earthquakes, landslides, and so on, are manifestations of this evolutionary process, human decisions concerning land government (cropping, urbanization etc.) may affect dramatically the landscape evolution in a complex mechanism of cause-and-effect leading to accelerated erosion phenomena, hydro-geological instability and flood events. To better understand landscape evolution and change in time, several numerical and empirical models have been developed and implemented with the aim to explore and explain such complex processes; reproducing landscape evolution through models and schematic representation of reality could be a powerful and reliable tool for natural resources planning and decision making in land management. Even understanding interactions and relations between the involved variables, predicting how the system will react to external inputs such as political, social or economic constraints, could be strongly difficult. Decision support systems could help in choosing among possible alternatives by integrating different sources of information and "What if" scenarios could be developed as possible future states of the world that represent alternative plausible conditions under different assumptions (Mahmoud M. wt al., 2009). Modelling approaches can be successfully applied to describe and assess both the natural spatial environmental variability and the anthropic impacts at different temporal and spatial scales even if they usually takes into account each aspect of the environmental system separately and without looking directly at landscape as a unique system and without understanding its intrinsic evolution mechanisms (H. Siegrist, 2002, S. Demberel, 2003, A. Brenner, 2005). GIS-based models which

  20. Evaluation of Resident Evacuations in Urban Rainstorm Waterlogging Disasters Based on Scenario Simulation: Daoli District (Harbin, China as an Example

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peng Chen

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available With the acceleration of urbanization, waterlogging has become an increasingly serious issue. Road waterlogging has a great influence on residents’ travel and traffic safety. Thus, evaluation of residents’ travel difficulties caused by rainstorm waterlogging disasters is of great significance for their travel safety and emergency shelter needs. This study investigated urban rainstorm waterlogging disasters, evaluating the impact of the evolution of such disasters’ evolution on residents’ evacuation, using Daoli District (Harbin, China as the research demonstration area to perform empirical research using a combination of scenario simulations, questionnaires, GIS spatial technology analysis and a hydrodynamics method to establish an urban rainstorm waterlogging numerical simulation model. The results show that under the conditions of a 10-year frequency rainstorm, there are three street sections in the study area with a high difficulty index, five street sections with medium difficulty index and the index is low at other districts, while under the conditions of a 50-year frequency rainstorm, there are five street sections with a high difficulty index, nine street sections with a medium difficulty index and the other districts all have a low index. These research results can help set the foundation for further small-scale urban rainstorm waterlogging disaster scenario simulations and emergency shelter planning as well as forecasting and warning, and provide a brand-new thought and research method for research on residents’ safe travel.

  1. A task analysis of underway replenishment for virtual environment ship-handling simulator scenario development

    OpenAIRE

    Norris, Steven D.

    1998-01-01

    Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited While developing a Virtual Reality (VR) Ship handling simulator for the Surface Warfare Officer School (SWOS) in Newport, RI, researchers at the Naval Air Warfare Center Training Systems Division (NAWCTSD) in Orlando, FL discovered a need for a task analysis of a Conning Officer during an Underway Replenishment (UNREP). The purpose of this task analysis was to document the tasks the Conning Officer performs and cues used to accomplish ...

  2. Emergy Analysis and Sustainability Efficiency Analysis of Different Crop-Based Biodiesel in Life Cycle Perspective

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ren, Jingzheng; Manzardo, Alessandro; Mazzi, Anna

    2013-01-01

    Biodiesel as a promising alternative energy resource has been a hot spot in chemical engineering nowadays, but there is also an argument about the sustainability of biodiesel. In order to analyze the sustainability of biodiesel production systems and select the most sustainable scenario, various...... kinds of crop-based biodiesel including soybean-, rapeseed-, sunflower-, jatropha- and palm-based biodiesel production options are studied by emergy analysis; soybean-based scenario is recognized as the most sustainable scenario that should be chosen for further study in China. DEA method is used...... to evaluate the sustainability efficiencies of these options, and the biodiesel production systems based on soybean, sunflower, and palm are considered as DEA efficient, whereas rapeseed-based and jatropha-based scenarios are needed to be improved, and the improved methods have also been specified....

  3. Emergy Analysis and Sustainability Efficiency Analysis of Different Crop-Based Biodiesel in Life Cycle Perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jingzheng Ren

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Biodiesel as a promising alternative energy resource has been a hot spot in chemical engineering nowadays, but there is also an argument about the sustainability of biodiesel. In order to analyze the sustainability of biodiesel production systems and select the most sustainable scenario, various kinds of crop-based biodiesel including soybean-, rapeseed-, sunflower-, jatropha- and palm-based biodiesel production options are studied by emergy analysis; soybean-based scenario is recognized as the most sustainable scenario that should be chosen for further study in China. DEA method is used to evaluate the sustainability efficiencies of these options, and the biodiesel production systems based on soybean, sunflower, and palm are considered as DEA efficient, whereas rapeseed-based and jatropha-based scenarios are needed to be improved, and the improved methods have also been specified.

  4. Emergy analysis and sustainability efficiency analysis of different crop-based biodiesel in life cycle perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ren, Jingzheng; Manzardo, Alessandro; Mazzi, Anna; Fedele, Andrea; Scipioni, Antonio

    2013-01-01

    Biodiesel as a promising alternative energy resource has been a hot spot in chemical engineering nowadays, but there is also an argument about the sustainability of biodiesel. In order to analyze the sustainability of biodiesel production systems and select the most sustainable scenario, various kinds of crop-based biodiesel including soybean-, rapeseed-, sunflower-, jatropha- and palm-based biodiesel production options are studied by emergy analysis; soybean-based scenario is recognized as the most sustainable scenario that should be chosen for further study in China. DEA method is used to evaluate the sustainability efficiencies of these options, and the biodiesel production systems based on soybean, sunflower, and palm are considered as DEA efficient, whereas rapeseed-based and jatropha-based scenarios are needed to be improved, and the improved methods have also been specified.

  5. Scenario analysis of carbon emissions' anti-driving effect on Qingdao's energy structure adjustment with an optimization model, Part II: Energy system planning and management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, C B; Huang, G H; Liu, Z P; Zhen, J L; Yin, J G

    2017-03-01

    In this study, an inexact multistage stochastic mixed-integer programming (IMSMP) method was developed for supporting regional-scale energy system planning (EPS) associated with multiple uncertainties presented as discrete intervals, probability distributions and their combinations. An IMSMP-based energy system planning (IMSMP-ESP) model was formulated for Qingdao to demonstrate its applicability. Solutions which can provide optimal patterns of energy resources generation, conversion, transmission, allocation and facility capacity expansion schemes have been obtained. The results can help local decision makers generate cost-effective energy system management schemes and gain a comprehensive tradeoff between economic objectives and environmental requirements. Moreover, taking the CO2 emissions scenarios mentioned in Part I into consideration, the anti-driving effect of carbon emissions on energy structure adjustment was studied based on the developed model and scenario analysis. Several suggestions can be concluded from the results: (a) to ensure the smooth realization of low-carbon and sustainable development, appropriate price control and fiscal subsidy on high-cost energy resources should be considered by the decision-makers; (b) compared with coal, natural gas utilization should be strongly encouraged in order to insure that Qingdao could reach the carbon discharges peak value in 2020; (c) to guarantee Qingdao's power supply security in the future, the construction of new power plants should be emphasised instead of enhancing the transmission capacity of grid infrastructure.

  6. Exploring an Ecologically Sustainable Scheme for Landscape Restoration of Abandoned Mine Land: Scenario-Based Simulation Integrated Linear Programming and CLUE-S Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Liping; Zhang, Shiwen; Huang, Yajie; Cao, Meng; Huang, Yuanfang; Zhang, Hongyan

    2016-01-01

    Understanding abandoned mine land (AML) changes during land reclamation is crucial for reusing damaged land resources and formulating sound ecological restoration policies. This study combines the linear programming (LP) model and the CLUE-S model to simulate land-use dynamics in the Mentougou District (Beijing, China) from 2007 to 2020 under three reclamation scenarios, that is, the planning scenario based on the general land-use plan in study area (scenario 1), maximal comprehensive benefits (scenario 2), and maximal ecosystem service value (scenario 3). Nine landscape-scale graph metrics were then selected to describe the landscape characteristics. The results show that the coupled model presented can simulate the dynamics of AML effectively and the spatially explicit transformations of AML were different. New cultivated land dominates in scenario 1, while construction land and forest land account for major percentages in scenarios 2 and 3, respectively. Scenario 3 has an advantage in most of the selected indices as the patches combined most closely. To conclude, reclaiming AML by transformation into more forest can reduce the variability and maintain the stability of the landscape ecological system in study area. These findings contribute to better mapping AML dynamics and providing policy support for the management of AML. PMID:27023575

  7. Exploring an Ecologically Sustainable Scheme for Landscape Restoration of Abandoned Mine Land: Scenario-Based Simulation Integrated Linear Programming and CLUE-S Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Liping; Zhang, Shiwen; Huang, Yajie; Cao, Meng; Huang, Yuanfang; Zhang, Hongyan

    2016-03-24

    Understanding abandoned mine land (AML) changes during land reclamation is crucial for reusing damaged land resources and formulating sound ecological restoration policies. This study combines the linear programming (LP) model and the CLUE-S model to simulate land-use dynamics in the Mentougou District (Beijing, China) from 2007 to 2020 under three reclamation scenarios, that is, the planning scenario based on the general land-use plan in study area (scenario 1), maximal comprehensive benefits (scenario 2), and maximal ecosystem service value (scenario 3). Nine landscape-scale graph metrics were then selected to describe the landscape characteristics. The results show that the coupled model presented can simulate the dynamics of AML effectively and the spatially explicit transformations of AML were different. New cultivated land dominates in scenario 1, while construction land and forest land account for major percentages in scenarios 2 and 3, respectively. Scenario 3 has an advantage in most of the selected indices as the patches combined most closely. To conclude, reclaiming AML by transformation into more forest can reduce the variability and maintain the stability of the landscape ecological system in study area. These findings contribute to better mapping AML dynamics and providing policy support for the management of AML.

  8. 40 CFR 68.25 - Worst-case release scenario analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... used is based on TNT equivalent methods. (1) For regulated flammable substances that are normally gases... shall be used to determine the distance to the explosion endpoint if the model used is based on TNT equivalent methods. (1) For regulated flammable substances that are normally liquids at ambient...

  9. Problem-based scenarios with laptops: an effective combination for cross-curricular learning in mathematics, science and language

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Viktor Freiman

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Many educational systems consider using one-to-one access to the laptop as a way to improve teaching and learning. A two-year action research project on the use of laptop computers by New Brunswick (Canada grade 7 and 8 Francophone students aimed to better understand the impact of laptops on learning. Two problem-based learning (PBL interdisciplinary scenarios (math, science, language arts were implemented in eight experimental classes to measure and document students’ actual learning process, particularly in terms of their ability to scientifically investigate authentic problems, to reason mathematically, and to communicate. On-site observations, video-recording, journals, samples of students’ work, and interviews were used to collect qualitative data. Based on our findings, we argue that laptops in and of themselves may not automatically lead to better results on standardized tests, but rather create opportunities to enrich learning with more open-ended, constructive, collaborative, reflective, and cognitively complex learning tasks.

  10. An Analysis Platform for Mobile Ad Hoc Network (MANET) Scenario Execution Log Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-01-01

    execution-based model generation has shown success for routing attacks, but requires a large amount of manual and expert-level intervention due to the...DISTRIBUTION/AVAILABILITY STATEMENT Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited 13. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES 14. ABSTRACT Generating models ...a plugin-based platform that provides a flexible and efficient mechanism for the model generation process. This platform consists of a web portal

  11. Scenarios for the Future of Air Quality: Planning and Analysis in an Uncertain World

    Science.gov (United States)

    On November 15 and 16 of 2010, EPA hosted a workshop: The Future of Air Quality: Planning and Analysis in An Uncertain World in Chapel Hill, North Carolina. This workshop was an “outside-of-the-box” thinking exercise, where a small group of EPA staff and managers brainstormed o...

  12. Surface impedance based microwave imaging method for breast cancer screening: contrast-enhanced scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Güren, Onan; Çayören, Mehmet; Ergene, Lale Tükenmez; Akduman, Ibrahim

    2014-10-01

    A new microwave imaging method that uses microwave contrast agents is presented for the detection and localization of breast tumours. The method is based on the reconstruction of breast surface impedance through a measured scattered field. The surface impedance modelling allows for representing the electrical properties of the breasts in terms of impedance boundary conditions, which enable us to map the inner structure of the breasts into surface impedance functions. Later a simple quantitative method is proposed to screen breasts against malignant tumours where the detection procedure is based on weighted cross correlations among impedance functions. Numerical results demonstrate that the method is capable of detecting small malignancies and provides reasonable localization.

  13. The role of nuclear energy in long-term climate scenarios: An analysis with the World-TIMES model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vaillancourt, Kathleen [GERAD Research Center, 3000 Chemin de la Cote-Sainte-Catherine, Montreal, Quebec, H3T 2A7 (Canada)], E-mail: kathleen.vaillancourt@gerad.ca; Labriet, Maryse [CIEMAT Research Center, Avenida Complutense 22, 28040 Madrid (Spain); Loulou, Richard [GERAD Research Center, 3000 Chemin de la Cote-Sainte-Catherine, Montreal, Quebec, H3T 2A7 (Canada); McGill University, Faculty of Management, Montreal, Quebec (Canada); Waaub, Jean-Philippe [GERAD Research Center, 3000 Chemin de la Cote-Sainte-Catherine, Montreal, Quebec, H3T 2A7 (Canada); Departement de Geographie, Universite du Quebec a Montreal, Montreal, Quebec (Canada)

    2008-07-15

    There is a revival in the nuclear debate observed in the literature. Several analyses have shown that nuclear technologies may represent very attractive options for greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions, especially in countries with high growth projections for energy demand. Our objective is to analyze the role of nuclear energy in long-term climate scenarios using the World-TIMES (The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System) bottom-up model. World-TIMES is a global model that optimizes the energy system of 15 regions over a 100-year horizon (2000-2100). We present energy and emission results for climate scenarios for two levels of CO{sub 2} concentration (450 and 550 ppmv by 2100). We analyze the penetration level of nuclear energy under various sets of assumptions on technology parameters and exogenous constraints on nuclear development to reflect social perceptions. Nuclear energy technologies satisfy a large portion of electricity production in many regions. Most regions experience an energy transition based on advanced oil and gas technologies and hydropower. Other renewable technologies might play a more important role but need further cost reductions or new regulations to penetrate the market in substantial proportions. Carbon sequestration and endogenous demand reductions for energy services are also significantly contributing to reach environmental target.

  14. Supply Chain Simulator: A Scenario-Based Educational Tool to Enhance Student Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siddiqui, Atiq; Khan, Mehmood; Akhtar, Sohail

    2008-01-01

    Simulation-based educational products are excellent set of illustrative tools that proffer features like visualization of the dynamic behavior of a real system, etc. Such products have great efficacy in education and are known to be one of the first-rate student centered learning methodologies. These products allow students to practice skills such…

  15. Emission trading scheme: market analysis and forecasting scenarios; Emission Trading scheme: analisi di mercato e scenari previsivi

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Clo, Stefano [Universita' di Bologna, Bologna (Italy). Facolta' di Economia; Desalvo, Tobia [Scuola Mattei Master MEDEA, (Italy)

    2006-06-15

    This article offers an economic analysis of the Emission Trading Scheme (ETS) and its institutional framework; we introduce an economic model able to simulate some possible market price's scenarios. The aim of this article is to offer a better market fundamentals' comprehension and to help economic agents building their expectations about market's development. [Italian] Questo articolo offre un'analisi economica dell'Emission Trading Scheme (ETS) e delle istituzioni pubbliche che lo interessano. Viene, inoltre, presentato un modello economico elaborato per simulare l'andamento futuro dei prezzi, con l'obiettivo di contribuire ad una migliore comprensione dei meccanismi di mercato e di facilitare la formulazione di aspettative.

  16. Using a Flexible Skill-Based Approach to Recognize Objects in Industrial Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Rasmus Skovgaard; Schou, Casper; Damgaard, Jens Skov

    2016-01-01

    as well as the need for highly specialized staff for setting up modern collaborative robots. This paper proposes a skill for recognition and classification of different objects. The skill is parameterized using manual kinesthetic teaching, and machine learning based on SIFT features, Bag of Words, and SVM......Traditional industrial robots are highly efficient and precise and therefore well suited for carrying out simple, repetitive tasks. They are, however, complicated and time consuming to setup and re-program to perform new tasks. Skill-based programming attempts to reduce both the required time...... is used to classify objects. A user study with 20 test participants shows that robotics novices after only a short introduction are able to instruct the skill and combine it with other skills (pick and place) to program a complete task....

  17. On Improving the Reliability of Distribution Networks Based on Investment Scenarios Using Reference Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kawahara, Koji

    Distribution systems are inherent monopolies and therefore these have generally been regulated in order to protect customers and to ensure cost-effective operation. In the UK this is one of the functions of OFGEM (Office of Gas and Electricity Markets). Initially the regulation was based on the value of assets but there is a trend nowadays towards performance-based regulation. In order to achieve this, a methodology is needed that enables the reliability performance associated with alternative investment strategies to be compared with the investment cost of these strategies. At present there is no accepted approach for such assessments. Building on the concept of reference networks proposed in Refs. (1), (2), this paper describes how these networks can be used to assess the impact that performance driven investment strategies will have on the improvement in reliability indices. The method has been tested using the underground and overhead part of a real system.

  18. Fighting Tomorrows Fire Today: Leveraging Intelligence for Scenario-Based Exercise Design

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-03-01

    psychologists from the Department of Intercultural Business Communication , Friedrich-Schiller-University in Jena, Germany, explain the psychological...are social events that reflect the ways, we live and structure our societies and communities .”100 Simply stated, this idea leads into the study of... social media ,” but each recommendation was categorized based on its content and the “Special Needs” category received its single checkmark. 3

  19. Trajectory Generation Model-Based IMM Tracking for Safe Driving in Intersection Scenario

    OpenAIRE

    2011-01-01

    Tracking the actions of vehicles at crossroads and planning safe trajectories will be an effective method to reduce the rate of traffic accident at intersections. It is to resolve the problem of the abrupt change because of the existence of drivers' voluntary choices. In this paper, we make approach of an improved IMM tracking method based on trajectory generation, abstracted by trajectory generation algorithm, to improve this situation. Because of the similarity between human-driving traject...

  20. Validation of a scenario-based assessment of critical thinking using an externally validated tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buur, Jennifer L; Schmidt, Peggy; Smylie, Dean; Irizarry, Kris; Crocker, Carlos; Tyler, John; Barr, Margaret

    2012-01-01

    With medical education transitioning from knowledge-based curricula to competency-based curricula, critical thinking skills have emerged as a major competency. While there are validated external instruments for assessing critical thinking, many educators have created their own custom assessments of critical thinking. However, the face validity of these assessments has not been challenged. The purpose of this study was to compare results from a custom assessment of critical thinking with the results from a validated external instrument of critical thinking. Students from the College of Veterinary Medicine at Western University of Health Sciences were administered a custom assessment of critical thinking (ACT) examination and the externally validated instrument, California Critical Thinking Skills Test (CCTST), in the spring of 2011. Total scores and sub-scores from each exam were analyzed for significant correlations using Pearson correlation coefficients. Significant correlations between ACT Blooms 2 and deductive reasoning and total ACT score and deductive reasoning were demonstrated with correlation coefficients of 0.24 and 0.22, respectively. No other statistically significant correlations were found. The lack of significant correlation between the two examinations illustrates the need in medical education to externally validate internal custom assessments. Ultimately, the development and validation of custom assessments of non-knowledge-based competencies will produce higher quality medical professionals.

  1. Scenario analysis of tillage, residue and fertilization management effects on soil organic carbon dynamics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wang Xiaobin,; Cai Diangxiong,; Hoogmoed, W.B.; Oenema, O.; Perdok, U.D.

    2005-01-01

    Based on data from 10-year field experiments on residue/fertilizer management in the dryland farming region of northern China, Century model was used to simulate the site-specific ecosystem dynamics through adjustment of the model's parameters, and the applicability of the model to propose soil orga

  2. Multiwavelength analysis of the intriguing GRB 061126: The reverse shock scenario and magnetization

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gomboc, A.; Kobayashi, S.; Guidorzi, C.; Melandri, A.; Mangano, V.; Sbarufatti, B.; Mundell, C.G.; Schady, P.; Smith, R.J.; Updike, A.C.; Kann, D.A.; Misra, K.; Rol, E.; Pozanenko, A.; Castro-Tirado, A.J.; Anupama, G.C.; Bersier, D.; Bode, M.F.; Carter, D.; Curran, P.; Fruchter, A.; Graham, J.; Hartmann, D.H.; Ibrahimov, M.; Levan, A.; Monfardini, A.; Mottram, C.J.; O'Brien, P.T.; Prema, P.; Sahu, D.K.; Steele, I.A.; Tanvir, N.R.; Wiersema, K.

    2008-01-01

    We present a detailed study of the prompt and afterglow emission from Swift GRB 061126 using BAT, XRT, UVOT data and multicolor optical imaging from 10 ground-based telescopes. GRB 061126 was a long burst (T90 = 191 s) with four overlapping peaks in its γ-ray light curve. The X-ray afterglow, observ

  3. South African maize production scenarios for 2055 using a combined empirical and process-based model approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Estes, L.; Bradley, B.; Oppenheimer, M.; Wilcove, D.; Beukes, H.; Schulze, R. E.; Tadross, M.

    2011-12-01

    In South Africa, a semi-arid country with a diverse agricultural sector, climate change is projected to negatively impact staple crop production. Our study examines future impacts to maize, South Africa's most widely grown staple crop. Working at finer spatial resolution than previous studies, we combine the process-based DSSAT4.5 and the empirical MAXENT models to study future maize suitability. Climate scenarios were based on 9 GCMs run under SRES A2 and B1 emissions scenarios down-scaled (using self-organizing maps) to 5838 locations. Soil properties were derived from textural and compositional data linked to 26422 landforms. DSSAT was run with typical dryland planting parameters and mean projected CO2 values. MAXENT was trained using aircraft-observed distributions and monthly climatologies data derived from downscaled daily records, with future rainfall increased by 10% to simulate CO2 related water-use efficiency gains. We assessed model accuracy based on correlations between model output and a satellite-derived yield proxy (integrated NDVI), and the overlap of modeled and observed maize field distributions. DSSAT yields were linearly correlated to mean integrated NDVI (R2 = 0.38), while MAXENT's relationship was logistic. Binary suitability maps based on thresholding model outputs were slightly more accurate for MAXENT (88%) than for DSSAT (87%) when compared to current maize field distribution. We created 18 suitability maps for each model (9 GCMs X 2 SRES) using projected changes relative to historical suitability thresholds. Future maps largely agreed in eastern South Africa, but disagreed strongly in the semi-arid west. Using a 95% confidence criterion (17 models agree), MAXENT showed a 241305 km2 suitability loss relative to its modeled historical suitability, while DSSAT showed a potential loss of only 112446 km2. Even the smaller potential loss highlighted by DSSAT is uncertain, given that DSSAT's mean (across all 18 climate scenarios) projected yield

  4. A tool for home-based rehabilitation allowing for clinical evaluation in a visual markerless scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capecci, M; Ceravolo, M G; D'Orazio, F; Ferracuti, F; Iarlori, S; Lazzaro, G; Longhi, S; Romeo, L; Verdini, F

    2015-08-01

    This work deals with the design of an interactive monitoring tool for home-based physical rehabilitation. The software platform includes a video processing stage and the exercise performance evaluation. Image features are extracted by a Kinect v2 sensor and elaborated to return the exercises score. Furthermore the tool provides to physiotherapists a quantitative exercise evaluation of subject's performances. The proposed tool for home rehabilitation has been tested on 5 subjects and 5 different exercises and results are presented. In particular both exercises and relative evaluation indexes were selected by specialists in neurorehabilitation.

  5. Sensor-Based Human Activity Recognition in a Multi-user Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Liang; Gu, Tao; Tao, Xianping; Lu, Jian

    Existing work on sensor-based activity recognition focuses mainly on single-user activities. However, in real life, activities are often performed by multiple users involving interactions between them. In this paper, we propose Coupled Hidden Markov Models (CHMMs) to recognize multi-user activities from sensor readings in a smart home environment. We develop a multimodal sensing platform and present a theoretical framework to recognize both single-user and multi-user activities. We conduct our trace collection done in a smart home, and evaluate our framework through experimental studies. Our experimental result shows that we achieve an average accuracy of 85.46% with CHMMs.

  6. EDGE TECHNOLOGIES IN IoT AND APPLICATION SCENARIO OF RFID BASED IoT

    OpenAIRE

    Dharam Gami *, Asst. Prof. Dhaval Nimavat, Asst. Prof. Shubham Sharma

    2016-01-01

    Internet of Things possesses the power to change the era. IoT will offer an advance connectivity between objects which will change the face of machine-to-machine communication. IoT will connect autonomous systems, devices and heterogeneous machines and make them communicate without human interactions. Many technologies will play significant role in IoT implementation. In this paper, we aim to describe the candidate of edge technologies in IoT and demonstrate how RFID based IoT system will loo...

  7. Neonatal infrared thermography imaging: Analysis of heat flux during different clinical scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abbas, Abbas K.; Heimann, Konrad; Blazek, Vladimir; Orlikowsky, Thorsten; Leonhardt, Steffen

    2012-11-01

    IntroductionAn accurate skin temperature measurement of Neonatal Infrared Thermography (NIRT) imaging requires an appropriate calibration process for compensation of external effects (e.g. variation of environmental temperature, variable air velocity or humidity). Although modern infrared cameras can perform such calibration, an additional compensation is required for highly accurate thermography. This compensation which corrects any temperature drift should occur during the NIRT imaging process. We introduce a compensation technique which is based on modeling the physical interactions within the measurement scene and derived the detected temperature signal of the object. Materials and methodsIn this work such compensation was performed for different NIRT imaging application in neonatology (e.g. convective incubators, kangaroo mother care (KMC), and an open radiant warmer). The spatially distributed temperatures of 12 preterm infants (average gestation age 31 weeks) were measured under these different infant care arrangements (i.e. closed care system like a convective incubator, and open care system like kangaroo mother care, and open radiant warmer). ResultsAs errors in measurement of temperature were anticipated, a novel compensation method derived from infrared thermography of the neonate's skin was developed. Moreover, the differences in temperature recording for the 12 preterm infants varied from subject to subject. This variation could be arising from individual experimental setting applied to the same region of interest over the neonate's body. The experimental results for the model-based corrections is verified over the selected patient group. ConclusionThe proposed technique relies on applying model-based correction to the measured temperature and reducing extraneous errors during NIRT. This application specific method is based on different heat flux compartments present in neonatal thermography scene. Furthermore, these results are considered to be

  8. A computable general equilibrium analysis of greenhouse gas reduction paths and scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Iorwerth, A.A.; Bagnoli, P.; Dissou, Y.; Peluso, T.; Rudin, J. [Department of Finance, Ottawa, ON (Canada)

    2000-10-31

    Finance Canada conducted an analysis on behalf of the federal-provincial Climate Change Analysis and Modelling Group regarding policy options to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The Canadian sectoral general equilibrium model (CaSGEM) was used to simulate the Canadian economy using representative consumers and producers. The model describes the complete economy comprised of 51 sectors producing 59 goods and services. The model does not describe the transition costs of the path taken in adjusting to the new policy environment. Instead, it focuses on the Canadian economy after the impacts of new policies have been in place long enough to work themselves through the economy. It was suggested that at least some producers, particularly in electricity production, could easily replace GHG-intensive inputs with those which are less polluting. A table was included which showed the reduction in emissions from coal and natural gas predicted by the model for the electricity sector. The reduction in fuel use was also reported. It was concluded that there would be a long-run economic cost to implement the Kyoto agreement, but the cost is neither inconsequential nor enormous if the agreement is implemented in a cost-effective way. It was determined that the use of sector-specific emissions targets would add to the overall cost of implementing the Kyoto agreement without reducing the variation in economic impact across sectors. It was noted that technical assumptions have a significant bearing on the general impact and its distribution across sectors and provinces. tabs.

  9. Evaluating interactive computer-based scenarios designed for learning medical technology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Persson, Johanna; Dalholm, Elisabeth Hornyánszky; Wallergård, Mattias; Johansson, Gerd

    2014-11-01

    The use of medical equipment is growing in healthcare, resulting in an increased need for resources to educate users in how to manage the various devices. Learning the practical operation of a device is one thing, but learning how to work with the device in the actual clinical context is more challenging. This paper presents a computer-based simulation prototype for learning medical technology in the context of critical care. Properties from simulation and computer games have been adopted to create a visualization-based, interactive and contextually bound tool for learning. A participatory design process, including three researchers and three practitioners from a clinic for infectious diseases, was adopted to adjust the form and content of the prototype to the needs of the clinical practice and to create a situated learning experience. An evaluation with 18 practitioners showed that practitioners were positive to this type of tool for learning and that it served as a good platform for eliciting and sharing knowledge. Our conclusion is that this type of tools can be a complement to traditional learning resources to situate the learning in a context without requiring advanced technology or being resource-demanding.

  10. Carotenoid Biosynthesis in Cyanobacteria: Structural and Evolutionary Scenarios Based on Comparative Genomics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chengwei Liang , Fangqing Zhao , Wei Wei , Zhangxiao Wen , Song Qin

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Carotenoids are widely distributed pigments in nature and their biosynthetic pathway has been extensively studied in various organisms. The recent access to the overwhelming amount genomic data of cyanobacteria has given birth to a novel approach called comparative genomics. The putative enzymes involved in the carotenoid biosynthesis among the cyanobacteria were determined by similarity-based tools. The reconstruction of biosynthetic pathway was based on the related enzymes. It is interesting to find that nearly all the cyanobacteria share quite similar pathway to synthesize β-carotene except for Gloeobacter violaceus PCC 7421. The enzymes, crtE-B-P-Qb-L, involved in the upstream pathway are more conserved than the subsequent ones (crtW-R. In addition, many carotenoid synthesis enzymes exhibit diversity in structure and function. Such examples in the families of ζ –carotene desaturase, lycopene cylases and carotene ketolases were described in this article. When we mapped these crt genes to the cyanobacterial genomes, the crt genes showed great structural variation among species. All of them are dispersed on the whole chromosome in contrast to the linear adjacent distribution of the crt gene cluster in other eubacteria. Moreover, in unicellular cyanobacteria, each step of the carotenogenic pathway is usually catalyzed by one gene product, whereas multiple ketolase genes are found in filamentous cyanobacteria. Such increased numbers of crt genes and their correlation to the ecological adaptation were carefully discussed.

  11. Ray-Based Statistical Propagation Modeling for Indoor Corridor Scenarios at 15 GHz

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qi Wang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available According to the demands for fifth-generation (5G communication systems, high frequency bands (above 6 GHz need to be adopted to provide additional spectrum. This paper investigates the characteristics of indoor corridor channels at 15 GHz. Channel measurements with a vector network analyzer in two corridors were conducted. Based on a ray-optical approach, a deterministic channel model covering both antenna and propagation characteristic is presented. The channel model is evaluated by comparing simulated results of received power and root mean square delay spread with the corresponding measurements. By removing the impact of directional antennas from the transmitter and receiver, a path loss model as well as small-scale fading properties for typical corridors is presented based on the generated samples from the deterministic model. Results show that the standard deviation of path loss variation is related to the Tx height, and placing the Tx closer to the ceiling leads to a smaller fluctuation of path loss.

  12. 情景环境与人为差错的对应关系分析方法%Method for correlation analysis between scenario and human error

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    蒋英杰; 孙志强; 宫二玲; 谢红卫

    2011-01-01

    A new method is proposed to analyze the correlation between scenario and human error. The scenario is decomposed into six aspects, which are operator, machine, task, organization, environment and assistant devices. Based on the scenario decomposition, a taxonomy of performance shaping factor is constructed, which includes thirty-eight items and can provide a reference template for the investigation of human error causes. Based on the skill-based, rule-based and knowledge-based (SRK) model, the slip/lapse/mistake framework is introduced to classify human errors, which are categorized as skill-based slip and lapse, rule-based slip and mistake, and knowledge-based mistake. Grey relational analysis is introduced to analyze the correlation between performance shaping factors and human error types, in which the correlations of "consequent-antecedent" and "antecedent-consequent" are both analyzed. By this method, performance shaping factors related to some specified human error type and human error types caused by some specified performance shaping factor both can be sorted according to their correlation degrees. A case study is provided, which shows that the proposed method is applicable in analyzing the correlation between scenario and human error, and can provide some important implications for human error prediction and human error reduction.%提出了一种分析情景环境与人为差错之间对应关系的方法.将情景环境分为操作者、机器、任务、组织、环境和辅助系统6个方面,建立了包含38个元素的行为形成因子分类方法,为人为差错成因的查找提供了参考模板.在SRK(skill-based,rule-based and knowledge-based)模型的基础上引入疏忽/遗忘/错误分类框架,将人为差错分为技能型疏忽、技能型遗忘、规则型疏忽、规则型错误以及知识型错误等5种基本的人为差错类型.使用灰色关联分析方法,从“结果-原因”和“原因-结果”两个方向分析行为形

  13. Current scenario of peptide-based drugs: the key roles of cationic antitumor and antiviral peptides

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kelly eMulder

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Cationic antimicrobial peptides (AMPs and host defense peptides (HDPs show vast potential as peptide-based drugs. Great effort has been made in order to exploit their mechanisms of action, aiming to identify their targets as well as to enhance their activity and bioavailability. In this review, we will focus on both naturally occurring and designed antiviral and antitumor cationic peptides, including those here called promiscuous, in which multiple targets are associated with a single peptide structure. Emphasis will be given to their bio-chemical features, selectivity against extra targets and molecular mechanisms. Peptides which possess antitumor activity against different cancer cell lines will be discussed, as well as peptides which inhibit virus replication, focusing on their applications for human health, animal health and agriculture, and their potential as new therapeutic drugs. Moreover, the development of production and nano-delivery systems for both classes of cationic peptides and perspectives on improving them will be considered.

  14. Comparative Analysis of Two Industries for Validating Green Manufacturing (GM) Framework: An Indian Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rehman, Minhaj Ahemad Abdul; Shrivastava, Rakesh Lakshmikumar; Shrivastava, Rashmi Rakesh

    2016-07-01

    Green Manufacturing (GM) deals with manufacturing practices that reduces or eliminates the adverse environmental impact during any of its phases. It emphasizes the use of processes that do not contaminate the environment or hurt consumers, employees, or other stakeholders. This paper presents the comparative analysis of two Indian industries representing different sectors for validating GM framework. It also highlights the road map of the companies for achieving performance improvement through GM implementation and its impact on organisational performance. The case studies helps in evaluating the companies GM implementation and overall business performance. For this, a developed diagnostic instrument in the form of questionnaire was administered amongst employees in the companies respectively and their responses were analysed. In order to have a better understanding of the impact of GM implementation, the information about overall business performance was obtained over the last 3 years. The diagnostic instrument developed here may be used by manufacturing organisations to prioritise their management efforts to assess and implement GM.

  15. Analytical Framework for End-to-End Delay Based on Unidirectional Highway Scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aslinda Hassan

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available In a sparse vehicular ad hoc network, a vehicle normally employs a carry and forward approach, where it holds the message it wants to transmit until the vehicle meets other vehicles or roadside units. A number of analyses in the literature have been done to investigate the time delay when packets are being carried by vehicles on both unidirectional and bidirectional highways. However, these analyses are focusing on the delay between either two disconnected vehicles or two disconnected vehicle clusters. Furthermore, majority of the analyses only concentrate on the expected value of the end-to-end delay when the carry and forward approach is used. Using regression analysis, we establish the distribution model for the time delay between two disconnected vehicle clusters as an exponential distribution. Consequently, a distribution is newly derived to represent the number of clusters on a highway using a vehicular traffic model. From there, we are able to formulate end-to-end delay model which extends the time delay model for two disconnected vehicle clusters to multiple disconnected clusters on a unidirectional highway. The analytical results obtained from the analytical model are then validated through simulation results.

  16. Integrating experimental and numerical methods for a scenario-based quantitative assessment of subsurface energy storage options

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kabuth, Alina; Dahmke, Andreas; Hagrey, Said Attia al; Berta, Márton; Dörr, Cordula; Koproch, Nicolas; Köber, Ralf; Köhn, Daniel; Nolde, Michael; Tilmann Pfeiffer, Wolf; Popp, Steffi; Schwanebeck, Malte; Bauer, Sebastian

    2016-04-01

    second example, the option of seasonal hydrogen storage in a deep saline aquifer is considered. The induced thermal and hydraulic multiphase flow processes were simulated. Also, an integrative approach towards geophysical monitoring of gas presence was evaluated by synthetically applying these monitoring methods to the synthetic, however realistically defined numerical storage scenarios. Laboratory experiments provided parameterisations of geochemical effects caused by storage gas leakage into shallow aquifers in cases of sealing failure. Ultimately, the analysis of realistically defined scenarios of subsurface energy storage within the ANGUS+ project allows a quantification of the subsurface space claimed by a storage operation and its induced effects. Acknowledgments: This work is part of the ANGUS+ project (www.angusplus.de) and funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) as part of the energy storage initiative "Energiespeicher".

  17. The cost-effectiveness of neonatal screening for Cystic Fibrosis: an analysis of alternative scenarios using a decision model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tu Karen

    2005-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The use of neonatal screening for cystic fibrosis is widely debated in the United Kingdom and elsewhere, but the evidence available to inform policy is limited. This paper explores the cost-effectiveness of adding screening for cystic fibrosis to an existing routine neonatal screening programme for congenital hypothyroidism and phenylketonuria, under alternative scenarios and assumptions. Methods The study is based on a decision model comparing screening to no screening in terms of a number of outcome measures, including diagnosis of cystic fibrosis, life-time treatment costs, life years and QALYs gained. The setting is a hypothetical UK health region without an existing neonatal screening programme for cystic fibrosis. Results Under initial assumptions, neonatal screening (using an immunoreactive trypsin/DNA two stage screening protocol costs £5,387 per infant diagnosed, or £1.83 per infant screened (1998 costs. Neonatal screening for cystic fibrosis produces an incremental cost-effectiveness of £6,864 per QALY gained, in our base case scenario (an assumed benefit of a 6 month delay in the emergence of symptoms. A difference of 11 months or more in the emergence of symptoms (and mean survival means neonatal screening is both less costly and produces better outcomes than no screening. Conclusion Neonatal screening is expensive as a method of diagnosis. Neonatal screening may be a cost-effective intervention if the hypothesised delays in the onset of symptoms are confirmed. Implementing both antenatal and neonatal screening would undermine potential economic benefits, since a reduction in the birth incidence of cystic fibrosis would reduce the cost-effectiveness of neonatal screening.

  18. Vulnerability Analysis of Rainstorm Waterlogging on Buildings in Central Urban Area of Shanghai Based on Scenario Simulation%基于情景模拟的上海中心城区建筑暴雨内涝脆弱性分析

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    权瑞松

    2014-01-01

    Rainstorm waterlogging disaster, as one of the most devastating natural hazards in Shanghai, has bad-ly affected residents’lives and operation of urban system. As the accumulation of population and wealth, in the background of global climate change and sea level rises, the vulnerability of coastal city show an increas-ing trend which may lead a very serious situation of rainstorm waterlogging disaster risk. From the point view of scenario analysis, the vulnerability of the indoor property and structure of the buildings to rainstorm water-logging disasters in central urban area of Shanghai was analyzed and evaluated combined with the previous studies. The main conclusions were as follows:1) The vulnerability of different building types presents signifi-cant difference. The warehousing and the old-style residence are the most vulnerable building types when expo-sure to waterlogging disasters. 2) The loss rate, number, and types of damaged buildings increase as the precipi-tation intensity increases. 3) The structure of buildings was more vulnerable than the properties in the build-ings, but the loss rate of building structure was lower than that of the properties in the building in the same con-dition. 4) The number of building with damaged structure was higher than that of building with damages prop-erty under the same scenario. 5) The spatial difference of the vulnerability of buildings is obvious. Over all, the rainstorm waterlogging disaster has the most serious effects on the buildings in Yangpu, Putuo and Xuhui Dis-trict;the buildings in Changning, Hongkou and Zhabei District have medium vulnerability rank;the buildings in Luwan, Jing’an and Huangpu District have low vulnerability rank.%暴雨内涝灾害是上海市最主要的自然灾害类型之一。在全球气候变化与海平面上升背景下,随着城市人口、财富的不断积聚,沿海城市的脆弱性增强,面临的暴雨内涝灾害风险形势更加严峻。基于情景分析视

  19. The role of technology in different framings of scenario-based simulation in nursing education and the impact on design for learning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nortvig, Anne-Mette; Jørnø, Rasmus Leth; Gundersen, Peter

    2013-01-01

    (-) that the scenario is not real. Time-outs where the student steps out of character and back-stage communication in between performances are considered part of the design. These pauses are not only opportunities for reflection but can be used to discuss alternative courses of action with peers, recall information......Scenarios for simulation in nurse education are often designed around specialized technological equipment such as full-sized programmable manikins in order to achieve a high level of fidelity and credibility. The scripted scenarios are performed or played out by students as part of their training...... opportunities for reflection on action. In such designs technology withdraws into the background as part of an evaluation of how realistic the scenario is deemed. The emphasis is on evaluation of the performance. In this paper we would first like to offer an analysis of the above approach as evaluative as we...

  20. The role of technology in different framing of scenario-based simulation in nursing education and the impact on design for learning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nortvig, Anne-Mette; Jørnø, Rasmus Leth Vergmann; Gundersen, Peter Bukovica

    2013-01-01

    - that the scenario is not real. Time-outs where the student steps out of character and back-stage communication in between performances are considered part of the design. These pauses are not only opportunities for reflection but can be used to discuss alternative courses of action with peers, recall information......Scenarios for simulation in nurse education are often designed around specialized technological equipment such as full-sized programmable manikins in order to achieve a high level of fidelity and credibility. The scripted scenarios are performed or played out by students as part of their training...... opportunities for reflection on action. In such designs technology withdraws into the background as part of an evaluation of how realistic the scenario is deemed. The emphasis is on evaluation of the performance. In this paper we would first like to offer an analysis of the above approach as evaluative as we...

  1. Simulating Interactive Learning Scenarios with Intelligent Pedagogical Agents in a Virtual World through BDI-Based Agents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohamed Soliman

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Intelligent Pedagogical Agents (IPAs are designed for pedagogical purposes to support learning in 3D virtual learning environments. Several benefits of IPAs have been found adding to support learning effectiveness. Pedagogical agents can be thought of as a central point of interaction between the learner and the learning environment. And hence, the intelligent behavior and functional richness of pedagogical agents have the potential to reward back into increased engagement and learning effectiveness. However, the realization of those agents remains to be a challenge based on intelligent agents in virtual worlds. This paper reports the challenging reasons and most importantly an approach for simplification. A simulation based on BDI agents is introduced opening the road for several extensions and experimentation before implementation of IPAs in a virtual world can take place. The simulation provides a proof-of concept based on three intelligent agents to represent an IPA, a learner, and learning object implemented in JACK and Jadex intelligent agent platforms. To that end, the paper exhibits the difficulties, resolutions, and decisions made when designing and implementing the learning scenario in both domains of the virtual world and the agent-based simulation while comparing the two agent platforms.

  2. Societal Risk Evaluation Scheme (SRES): Scenario-Based Multi-Criteria Evaluation of Synthetic Biology Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-01-01

    Synthetic biology (SB) applies engineering principles to biology for the construction of novel biological systems designed for useful purposes. From an oversight perspective, SB products come with significant uncertainty. Yet there is a need to anticipate and prepare for SB applications before deployment. This study develops a Societal Risk Evaluation Scheme (SRES) in order to advance methods for anticipatory governance of emerging technologies such as SB. The SRES is based upon societal risk factors that were identified as important through a policy Delphi study. These factors range from those associated with traditional risk assessment, such as health and environmental consequences, to broader features of risk such as those associated with reversibility, manageability, anticipated levels of public concern, and uncertainty. A multi-disciplinary panel with diverse perspectives and affiliations assessed four case studies of SB using the SRES. Rankings of the SRES components are compared within and across the case studies. From these comparisons, we found levels of controllability and familiarity associated with the cases to be important for overall SRES rankings. From a theoretical standpoint, this study illustrates the applicability of the psychometric paradigm to evaluating SB cases. In addition, our paper describes how the SRES can be incorporated into anticipatory governance models as a screening tool to prioritize research, information collection, and dialogue in the face of the limited capacity of governance systems. To our knowledge, this is the first study to elicit data on specific cases of SB with the goal of developing theory and tools for risk governance. PMID:28052080

  3. A Case Study on Developing an Effective Information Based Healthcare Services - India's Scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Pathanjali Sastri

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available The real test of technological development is to ensure whether it reaches people and the most important task is to produce, manage and deliver relevant information systems appropriately within India. Therefore technology needs to be acquired and adapted for it to be appropriately developed. A country like India needs to adapt and develop information systems based on their own needs and structures, using their own methods and practices. When it comes to eGovernance projects, better cooperation is the need of the day both from public as well as private players [1]. The Indian government is taking greater cognizance of the benefits of technology and some e-Gov projects have already been initiated and deployed in few states of our country [1]. However, despite an improved Information Communication Technology (ICT in our country thanks to the efforts of our government, there are still problems which continue to hamper the use of information and ICT in domain of healthcare in India [2]. This paper discusses the current levels of IT and quality in health care in our country and how Information Technology (IT might be helpful in future.

  4. Water Resources Sustainability in Northwest Mexico: Analysis of Regional Infrastructure Plans under Historical and Climate Change Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Che, D.; Robles-Morua, A.; Mayer, A. S.; Vivoni, E. R.

    2012-12-01

    The arid state of Sonora, Mexico, has embarked on a large water infrastructure project to provide additional water supply and improved sanitation to the growing capital of Hermosillo. The main component of the Sonora SI project involves an interbasin transfer from rural to urban water users that has generated conflicts over water among different social sectors. Through interactions with regional stakeholders from agricultural and water management agencies, we ascertained the need for a long-term assessment of the water resources of one of the system components, the Sonora River Basin (SRB). A semi-distributed, daily watershed model that includes current and proposed reservoir infrastructure was applied to the SRB. This simulation framework allowed us to explore alternative scenarios of water supply from the SRB to Hermosillo under historical (1980-2010) and future (2031-2040) periods that include the impact of climate change. We compared three precipitation forcing scenarios for the historical period: (1) a network of ground observations from Mexican water agencies; (2) gridded fields from the North America Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) at 12 km resolution; and (3) gridded fields from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model at 10 km resolution. These were compared to daily historical observations at two stream gauging stations and two reservoirs to generate confidence in the simulation tools. We then tested the impact of climate change through the use of the A2 emissions scenario and HadCM3 boundary forcing on the WRF simulations of a future period. Our analysis is focused on the combined impact of existing and proposed reservoir infrastructure at two new sites on the water supply management in the SRB under historical and future climate conditions. We also explore the impact of climate variability and change on the bimodal precipitation pattern from winter frontal storms and the summertime North American monsoon and its consequences on water

  5. Hydrogen Scenario Analysis Summary Report: Analysis of the Transition to Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and the Potential Hydrogen Energy Infrastructure Requirements

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Greene, David L [ORNL; Leiby, Paul Newsome [ORNL; James, Brian [Directed Technologies, Inc.; Perez, Julie [Directed Technologies, Inc.; Melendez, Margo [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL); Milbrandt, Anelia [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL); Unnasch, Stefan [Life Cycle Associates; Rutherford, Daniel [TIAX, LLC; Hooks, Matthew [TIAX, LLC

    2008-03-01

    Infrastructure Technologies Program (HFCIT) has supported a series of analyses to evaluate alternative scenarios for deployment of millions of hydrogen fueled vehicles and supporting infrastructure. To ensure that these alternative market penetration scenarios took into consideration the thinking of the automobile manufacturers, energy companies, industrial hydrogen suppliers, and others from the private sector, DOE held several stakeholder meetings to explain the analyses, describe the models, and solicit comments about the methods, assumptions, and preliminary results (U.S. DOE, 2006a). The first stakeholder meeting was held on January 26, 2006, to solicit guidance during the initial phases of the analysis; this was followed by a second meeting on August 9-10, 2006, to review the preliminary results. A third and final meeting was held on January 31, 2007, to discuss the final analysis results. More than 60 hydrogen energy experts from industry, government, national laboratories, and universities attended these meetings and provided their comments to help guide DOE's analysis. The final scenarios attempt to reflect the collective judgment of the participants in these meetings. However, they should not be interpreted as having been explicitly endorsed by DOE or any of the stakeholders participating. The DOE analysis examined three vehicle penetration scenarios: Scenario 1--Production of thousands of vehicles per year by 2015 and hundreds of thousands per year by 2019. This option is expected to lead to a market penetration of 2.0 million fuel cell vehicles (FCV) by 2025. Scenario 2--Production of thousands of FCVs by 2013 and hundreds of thousands by 2018. This option is expected to lead to a market penetration of 5.0 million FCVs by 2025. Scenario 3--Production of thousands of FCVs by 2013, hundreds of thousands by 2018, and millions by 2021 such that market penetration is 10 million by 2025. Scenario 3 was formulated to comply with the NAS recommendation: 'DOE should

  6. Hawaii Energy Strategy Project 2: Fossil Energy Review. Task IV. Scenario development and analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yamaguchi, N.D.; Breazeale, K. [ed.

    1993-12-01

    The Hawaii Energy Strategy (HES) Program is a seven-project effort led by the State of Hawaii Department of Business, Economic Development & Tourism (DBEDT) to investigate a wide spectrum of Hawaii energy issues. The East-West Center`s Program on Resources: Energy and Minerals, has been assigned HES Project 2, Fossil Energy Review, which focuses on fossil energy use in Hawaii and the greater regional and global markets. HES Project 2 has four parts: Task I (World and Regional Fossil Energy Dynamics) covers petroleum, natural gas, and coal in global and regional contexts, along with a discussion of energy and the environment. Task II (Fossil Energy in Hawaii) focuses more closely on fossil energy use in Hawaii: current utilization and trends, the structure of imports, possible future sources of supply, fuel substitutability, and energy security. Task III`s emphasis is Greenfield Options; that is, fossil energy sources not yet used in Hawaii. This task is divided into two sections: first, an in-depth {open_quotes}Assessment of Coal Technology Options and Implications for the State of Hawaii,{close_quotes} along with a spreadsheet analysis model, which was subcontracted to the Environmental Assessment and Information Sciences Division of Argonne National Laboratory; and second, a chapter on liquefied natural gas (LNG) in the Asia-Pacific market and the issues surrounding possible introduction of LNG into the Hawaii market.

  7. Transdisciplinary Evaluation of Energy Scenarios for a German Village Using Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Schmuck

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA can assist local decision processes towards selecting renewable energy systems as it is able to manage qualitative data and offers opportunities to integrate knowledge from local stakeholders. However, little experience is available regarding practical applications of MCDA in real decision processes in communities on their path towards a renewable energy supply. Within the “Bioenergy-Region Ludwigsfelde” project, an MCDA evaluation has been applied to a small village on its way to becoming a “bioenergy village”. Here, MCDA has been combined with already established tools accompanying the process to becoming a “bioenergy village”, such as planning workshops, citizens’ meetings and best-practice trips. A comprehensive set of sustainability criteria was applied aimed at addressing the questions of local actors. An emphasis was placed on social criteria that comprise the perceived values of local impacts. In general, it was observed that MCDA provides many benefits for this application context. In particular, the group weighting using the SIMOS method demonstrated good results in the process. However, for real-world applications of MCDA, the challenge of data compilation in particular must be addressed.

  8. Regional Issue Identification and Assessment (RIIA): an analysis of the Mid-Range Projection Series C Scenario. Executive summary for Federal Region IV

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Honea, B.; Hillsman, E.

    1979-10-01

    The Department of Energy (DOE) has hypothesized a number of alternate energy futures as part of its energy planning and analysis programs. In this report, which is part of DOE's Regional Issue Identification and Assessment (RIIA) Program, Oak Ridge National Laboratory examines how a proposed energy future called the Mid-Range Projection Series C Scenario would affect Federal Region IV (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Tennessee). This scenario, to be called the Series C Scenario, assumes a medium supply and a medium demand for fuel through 1990, and it incorporates the fuel switching provisions of the Energy Supply and Environmental Coordination Act. The report portrays the major regional environmental, human health and safety, socioeconomic, and institutional effects that might result from the implementation of the Series C Scenario.

  9. Life-cycle analysis of energy use, greenhouse gas emissions, and water consumption in the 2016 MYPP algal biofuel scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Frank, Edward [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Pegallapati, Ambica K. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Davis, Ryan [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Markham, Jennifer [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Coleman, Andre [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Jones, Sue [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Wigmosta, Mark S. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Zhu, Yunhua [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2016-06-16

    The Department of Energy (DOE) Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) Multi-year Program Plan (MYPP) describes the bioenergy objectives pursued by BETO, the strategies for achieving those objectives, the current state of technology (SOT), and a number of design cases that explore cost and operational performance required to advance the SOT towards middle and long term goals (MYPP, 2016). Two options for converting algae to biofuel intermediates were considered in the MYPP, namely algal biofuel production via lipid extraction and algal biofuel production by thermal processing. The first option, lipid extraction, is represented by the Combined Algae Processing (CAP) pathway in which algae are hydrolyzed in a weak acid pretreatment step. The treated slurry is fermented for ethanol production from sugars. The fermentation stillage contains most of the lipids from the original biomass, which are recovered through wet solvent extraction. The process residuals after lipid extraction, which contain much of the original mass of amino acids and proteins, are directed to anaerobic digestion (AD) for biogas production and recycle of N and P nutrients. The second option, thermal processing, comprises direct hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL) of the wet biomass, separation of aqueous, gas, and oil phases, and treatment of the aqueous phase with catalytic hydrothermal gasification (CHG) to produce biogas and to recover N and P nutrients. The present report describes a life cycle analysis of energy use and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of the CAP and HTL options for the three scenarios just described. Water use is also reported. Water use during algal biofuel production comes from evaporation during cultivation, discharge to bleed streams to control pond salinity (“blowdown”), and from use during preprocessing and upgrading. For scenarios considered to date, most water use was from evaporation and, secondarily, from bleed streams. Other use was relatively small at the level of

  10. Epistemic-based investigation of the probability of hazard scenarios using Bayesian network for the lifting operation of floating objects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toroody, Ahmad Bahoo; Abaiee, Mohammad Mahdi; Gholamnia, Reza; Ketabdari, Mohammad Javad

    2016-09-01

    Owing to the increase in unprecedented accidents with new root causes in almost all operational areas, the importance of risk management has dramatically risen. Risk assessment, one of the most significant aspects of risk management, has a substantial impact on the system-safety level of organizations, industries, and operations. If the causes of all kinds of failure and the interactions between them are considered, effective risk assessment can be highly accurate. A combination of traditional risk assessment approaches and modern scientific probability methods can help in realizing better quantitative risk assessment methods. Most researchers face the problem of minimal field data with respect to the probability and frequency of each failure. Because of this limitation in the availability of epistemic knowledge, it is important to conduct epistemic estimations by applying the Bayesian theory for identifying plausible outcomes. In this paper, we propose an algorithm and demonstrate its application in a case study for a light-weight lifting operation in the Persian Gulf of Iran. First, we identify potential accident scenarios and present them in an event tree format. Next, excluding human error, we use the event tree to roughly estimate the prior probability of other hazard-promoting factors using a minimal amount of field data. We then use the Success Likelihood Index Method (SLIM) to calculate the probability of human error. On the basis of the proposed event tree, we use the Bayesian network of the provided scenarios to compensate for the lack of data. Finally, we determine the resulting probability of each event based on its evidence in the epistemic estimation format by building on two Bayesian network types: the probability of hazard promotion factors and the Bayesian theory. The study results indicate that despite the lack of available information on the operation of floating objects, a satisfactory result can be achieved using epistemic data.

  11. Epistemic-Based Investigation of the Probability of Hazard Scenarios Using Bayesian Network for the Lifting Operation of Floating Objects

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Ahmad Bahoo Toroody; Mohammad Mahdi Abaiee; Reza Gholamnia; Mohammad Javad Ketabdari

    2016-01-01

    Owing to the increase in unprecedented accidents with new root causes in almost all operational areas, the importance of risk management has dramatically risen. Risk assessment, one of the most significant aspects of risk management, has a substantial impact on the system-safety level of organizations, industries, and operations. If the causes of all kinds of failure and the interactions between them are considered, effective risk assessment can be highly accurate. A combination of traditional risk assessment approaches and modern scientific probability methods can help in realizing better quantitative risk assessment methods. Most researchers face the problem of minimal field data with respect to the probability and frequency of each failure. Because of this limitation in the availability of epistemic knowledge, it is important to conduct epistemic estimations by applying the Bayesian theory for identifying plausible outcomes. In this paper, we propose an algorithm and demonstrate its application in a case study for a light-weight lifting operation in the Persian Gulf of Iran. First, we identify potential accident scenarios and present them in an event tree format. Next, excluding human error, we use the event tree to roughly estimate the prior probability of other hazard-promoting factors using a minimal amount of field data. We then use the Success Likelihood Index Method (SLIM) to calculate the probability of human error. On the basis of the proposed event tree, we use the Bayesian network of the provided scenarios to compensate for the lack of data. Finally, we determine the resulting probability of each event based on its evidence in the epistemic estimation format by building on two Bayesian network types:the probability of hazard promotion factors and the Bayesian theory. The study results indicate that despite the lack of available information on the operation of floating objects, a satisfactory result can be achieved using epistemic data.

  12. Hydrogen Scenario Analysis Summary Report: Analysis of the Transition to Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and the Potential Hydrogen Energy Infrastructure Requirements

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Greene, David L [ORNL; Leiby, Paul Newsome [ORNL; James, Brian [Directed Technologies, Inc.; Perez, Julie [Directed Technologies, Inc.; Melendez, Margo [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL); Milbrandt, Anelia [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL); Unnasch, Stefan [Life Cycle Associates; Rutherford, Daniel [TIAX, LLC; Hooks, Matthew [TIAX, LLC

    2008-03-01

    Infrastructure Technologies Program (HFCIT) has supported a series of analyses to evaluate alternative scenarios for deployment of millions of hydrogen fueled vehicles and supporting infrastructure. To ensure that these alternative market penetration scenarios took into consideration the thinking of the automobile manufacturers, energy companies, industrial hydrogen suppliers, and others from the private sector, DOE held several stakeholder meetings to explain the analyses, describe the models, and solicit comments about the methods, assumptions, and preliminary results (U.S. DOE, 2006a). The first stakeholder meeting was held on January 26, 2006, to solicit guidance during the initial phases of the analysis; this was followed by a second meeting on August 9-10, 2006, to review the preliminary results. A third and final meeting was held on January 31, 2007, to discuss the final analysis results. More than 60 hydrogen energy experts from industry, government, national laboratories, and universities attended these meetings and provided their comments to help guide DOE's analysis. The final scenarios attempt to reflect the collective judgment of the participants in these meetings. However, they should not be interpreted as having been explicitly endorsed by DOE or any of the stakeholders participating. The DOE analysis examined three vehicle penetration scenarios: Scenario 1--Production of thousands of vehicles per year by 2015 and hundreds of thousands per year by 2019. This option is expected to lead to a market penetration of 2.0 million fuel cell vehicles (FCV) by 2025. Scenario 2--Production of thousands of FCVs by 2013 and hundreds of thousands by 2018. This option is expected to lead to a market penetration of 5.0 million FCVs by 2025. Scenario 3--Production of thousands of FCVs by 2013, hundreds of thousands by 2018, and millions by 2021 such that market penetration is 10 million by 2025. Scenario 3 was formulated to comply with the NAS recommendation: 'DOE should

  13. EDITORIAL: Where next with global environmental scenarios? Where next with global environmental scenarios?

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Neill, Brian; Pulver, Simone; Van Deveer, Stacy; Garb, Yaakov

    2008-12-01

    -oriented scenario exercises also generate scenario products, but such products are recognized as meaningful mostly (or only) in the social context in which they were developed. It should be noted that those seeking to understand the functions, implications and utility of scenarios can approach analysis of scenarios and their impacts from either perspective—focusing attention on product outcomes and influence or assessing procedural and contextual dynamics and implications. Papers in this issue examine various aspects of scenario products, scenario processes and their interactions, with specific reference to global environmental change scenarios. Hulme and Dessai (2008) use the product-process distinction as a starting point for developing a framework to evaluate the success of scenario exercises. They identify 'prediction success', 'decision success' and 'learning success' as three evaluation metrics for scenarios, with the first two most relevant to scenario products and the last emphasizing procedural aspects of scenarios. They suggest that viewing scenarios primarily as products implies examining how closely actual outcomes have matched envisioned outcomes, while viewing them primarily as processes suggests evaluating the extent to which scenarios engaged participants and enabled their learning. O'Neill and Nakicenovic (2008) focus on Hulme and Dessai's evaluation metric, learning. Based on a review of six scenario/assessment exercises, they ask if and how scenario products have incorporated comparative assessments of results in order to enable cumulative learning across scenario efforts. The authors conclude that, although participating modelling teams have benefited greatly from the process of scenario activities and applied that learning to other scenario exercises in which they engage, learning from comparative assessments of scenario products has been rather limited; the latter due to the limited time and resources invested in comparative analysis. Pitcher (2009) speaks

  14. Coffee Beverage Quality Assessment Based on ETA/CPTEC-HadCM3 Model (A1B-IPCC/SRES Scenario), Southeastern Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giarolla, A.; Resende, N.; Chou, S. C.; Tavares, P. S.; Rodrigues, D. C.

    2012-04-01

    Environmental factors influence the coffee beverage quality and air temperature has a significant importance in this process. The grain maturation occurs very quickly in regions that present high temperatures and sometimes there is not enough time to complete all this phase adequately. In the other hand, with mild temperatures, the grain maturation occurs more slowly and it promotes a better quality beverage. The aim of this study was to assess the coffee beverage quality in the southeastern Brazil, based on climate projections using the Eta-CPTEC regional model driven by four members of an ensemble of the Met Office Hadley Centre Global Coupled climate model (HadCM3). The global model ensemble was run over the 21st century according to IPCC SRES, A1B emissions scenario. Each ensemble member presented different climate sensitivity in the analysis. The Eta-CPTEC-HadCM3 model was configured with a 40-km grid size and was run over the period of 1961-90 to represent a baseline climate, and over the period of 2011-2100 to simulate possible future changes and the effects on the coffee beverage quality. A coffee beverage quality classification, which depends on the annual air temperature proposed by Bressani (2007) and also, a quality coffee beverage sensory classification, based on Camargo and Cortez (1998) were considered in this study. An evaluation of the systematic errors (BIAS) for each member for the period from 1961 to 1990 was made. The results presented by Eta/CPTEC-HadCM3 model indicated that in the case of an occurrence of A1B emission scenario, the coffee beverage quality could be affected in this region due to the fact that the flavor may become stronger and unpleasant caused by rising air temperatures. The BIAS evaluation and subsequent errors removal demonstrated improvement in the scenarios simulations. A short review concerning agronomic techniques to mitigate extreme meteorological events or global warming on coffee crop based on Camargo (2010) also is

  15. Thermal and spectroscopic analysis of organic matter degradation and humification during composting of pig slurry in different scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martín-Mata, J; Lahoz-Ramos, C; Bustamante, M A; Marhuenda-Egea, F C; Moral, R; Santos, A; Sáez, J A; Bernal, M P

    2016-09-01

    In this work, different analytical techniques (thermal analysis, (13)C cross-polarization magic angle spinning (CPMAS) NMR and Fourier transform infrared (FT-IR) spectroscopy) have been used to study the organic matter changes during the co-composting of pig slurry with cotton gin waste. To ensure the validity of the findings, the composting process was developed in different scenarios: under experimental pilot plant conditions, using the static pile system, and under real conditions on a pig farm, using the turning pile system. Also, the thermal stability index (R1) was determined before and after an extraction with water, to evaluate the effect of eliminating water-soluble inorganic salts on the thermal analysis. The results of the thermal methods showed the degradation of the most labile organic matter during composting; R1 increased during composting in all piles, without any influence of the presence of water-soluble inorganic ions in the sample. The NMR showed a decrease in the abundance of the carbohydrate molecules and an increase in the aliphatic materials during composting, due to a concentration effect. Also, FT-IR spectroscopy was a useful technique to study the trends of polysaccharides and nitrate, as indicators of organic matter transformations during composting.

  16. Characterizing the emission implications of future natural gas production and use in the U.S. and Rocky Mountain region: A scenario-based energy system modeling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    McLeod, Jeffrey

    The recent increase in U.S. natural gas production made possible through advancements in extraction techniques including hydraulic fracturing has transformed the U.S. energy supply landscape while raising questions regarding the balance of environmental impacts associated with natural gas production and use. Impact areas at issue include emissions of methane and criteria pollutants from natural gas production, alongside changes in emissions from increased use of natural gas in place of coal for electricity generation. In the Rocky Mountain region, these impact areas have been subject to additional scrutiny due to the high level of regional oil and gas production activity and concerns over its links to air quality. Here, the MARKAL (MArket ALlocation) least-cost energy system optimization model in conjunction with the EPA-MARKAL nine-region database has been used to characterize future regional and national emissions of CO 2, CH4, VOC, and NOx attributed to natural gas production and use in several sectors of the economy. The analysis is informed by comparing and contrasting a base case, business-as-usual scenario with scenarios featuring variations in future natural gas supply characteristics, constraints affecting the electricity generation mix, carbon emission reduction strategies and increased demand for natural gas in the transportation sector. Emission trends and their associated sensitivities are identified and contrasted between the Rocky Mountain region and the U.S. as a whole. The modeling results of this study illustrate the resilience of the short term greenhouse gas emission benefits associated with fuel switching from coal to gas in the electric sector, but also call attention to the long term implications of increasing natural gas production and use for emissions of methane and VOCs, especially in the Rocky Mountain region. This analysis can help to inform the broader discussion of the potential environmental impacts of future natural gas production

  17. Scenario based product design

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tideman, M.

    2008-01-01

    Creating good products is not an easy thing to do. There are usually many different people who have an interest in the product. People such as the user, of course, but also marketing managers, production engineers, maintenance workers, recycling specialists, and government representatives, just to n

  18. A specific scenario for the origin of life and the genetic code based on peptide/oligonucleotide interdependence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffith, Robert W

    2009-12-01

    Among various scenarios that attempt to explain how life arose, the RNA world is currently the most widely accepted scientific hypothesis among biologists. However, the RNA world is logistically implausible and doesn't explain how translation arose and DNA became incorporated into living systems. Here I propose an alternative hypothesis for life's origin based on cooperation between simple nucleic acids, peptides and lipids. Organic matter that accumulated on the prebiotic Earth segregated into phases in the ocean based on density and solubility. Synthesis of complex organic monomers and polymerization reactions occurred within a surface hydrophilic layer and at its aqueous and atmospheric interfaces. Replication of nucleic acids and translation of peptides began at the emulsified interface between hydrophobic and aqueous layers. At the core of the protobiont was a family of short nucleic acids bearing arginine's codon and anticodon that added this amino acid to pre-formed peptides. In turn, the survival and replication of nucleic acid was aided by the peptides. The arginine-enriched peptides served to sequester and transfer phosphate bond energy and acted as cohesive agents, aggregating nucleic acids and keeping them at the interface.

  19. The Comparison of Distributed P2P Trust Models Based on Quantitative Parameters in the File Downloading Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jingpei Wang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Varied P2P trust models have been proposed recently; it is necessary to develop an effective method to evaluate these trust models to resolve the commonalities (guiding the newly generated trust models in theory and individuality (assisting a decision maker in choosing an optimal trust model to implement in specific context issues. A new method for analyzing and comparing P2P trust models based on hierarchical parameters quantization in the file downloading scenarios is proposed in this paper. Several parameters are extracted from the functional attributes and quality feature of trust relationship, as well as requirements from the specific network context and the evaluators. Several distributed P2P trust models are analyzed quantitatively with extracted parameters modeled into a hierarchical model. The fuzzy inferring method is applied to the hierarchical modeling of parameters to fuse the evaluated values of the candidate trust models, and then the relative optimal one is selected based on the sorted overall quantitative values. Finally, analyses and simulation are performed. The results show that the proposed method is reasonable and effective compared with the previous algorithms.

  20. Using an Animated Case Scenario Based on Constructivist 5E Model to Enhance Pre-Service Teachers' Awareness of Electrical Safety

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirca, Necati

    2013-01-01

    The objective of this study is to get pre-service teachers to develop an awareness of first aid knowledge and skills related to electrical shocking and safety within a scenario based animation based on a Constructivist 5E model. The sample of the study was composed of 78 (46 girls and 32 boys) pre-service classroom teachers from two faculties of…

  1. Exploring Young Children's Performance on and Acceptance of an Educational Scenario-Based Digital Game for Teaching Route-Planning Strategies: A Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Yi-Hui; Hou, Huei-Tse

    2016-01-01

    Researchers suggest that game-based learning (GBL) can be used to facilitate mathematics learning. However, empirical GBL research that targets young children is still limited. The purposes of the study is to develop a scenario-based digital game to promote children's route-planning ability, to empirically explore children's learning performance…

  2. Analysis of Regional Climate Changes adjusted Future Urban Growth Scenarios and possibility of the future air quality prediction in Seoul Metropolitan Area (SMA), Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, H.; Kim, Y.; Jeong, J.

    2012-12-01

    Land-use changes give effects to physical properties such as albedo, moisture availability and roughness length in the atmosphere, but future urban growth has not been considered widely to predict the future regional climate change because it is hard to predict the future land-use changes. In this study, we used the urban growth model called SLEUTH (Slope, Land-use, Excluded, Urban, Transportation, Hill-shade) based on Cellular Automata (CA) technique to predict the future land-use (especially, urban growth) changes. Seoul Metropolitan Area (SMA), the research area in this study, is the most explosively developed region in the Korean peninsula due to the continuous industrialization since 1970s. SLEUTH was calibrated to know the pattern and process of the urban growth and expansion in SMA with historical data for 35 years (1975-2000) provided from WAter Management Information System (WAMIS) in Korea and then future urban growth was projected out to 2050 assuming three different scenarios: (1) historical trends of urban growth (SC1), (2) future urban policy and plan (SC2), (3) ecological protection and growth (SC3). We used the FNL data of NCEP/NCAR for one month, Oct. in 2005 to evaluate the performance of the WRF on the long-term climate simulation and compared results of WRF with the ASOS/AWS (Automated Surface Observing Systems and Automated Weather System) observation data of the Korea Meteorology Administration. Based on the accuracy of the model, we performed various numerical experiments by the urban growth scenarios using the 6 hourly data of ECHAM5/OM-1 A1B scenarios generated by Max-Plank Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg, Germany on Oct. for 5 years (2046-2050), respectively. The difference of urban ratio under various urban growth scenarios in SMA consequently caused the spatial distributions of temperature to change, the average temperature to increase in the urban area. PBL height with a maximum of about 200m also appeared locally in newly

  3. Understanding Land System Change Through Scenario-Based Simulations: A Case Study from the Drylands in Northern China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Zhifeng; Verburg, Peter H; Wu, Jianguo; He, Chunyang

    2017-03-01

    The drylands in northern China are expected to face dramatic land system change in the context of socioeconomic development and environmental conservation. Recent studies have addressed changes of land cover with socioeconomic development in the drylands in northern China. However, the changes in land use intensity and the potential role of environmental conservation measures have yet to be adequately examined. Given the importance of land management intensity to the ecological conditions and regional sustainability, our study projected land system change in Hohhot city in the drylands in northern China from 2013 to 2030. Here, land systems are defined as combinations of land cover and land use intensity. Using the CLUMondo model, we simulated land system change in Hohhot under three scenarios: a scenario following historical trends, a scenario with strong socioeconomic and land use planning, and a scenario focused on achieving environmental conservation targets. Our results showed that Hohhot is likely to experience agricultural intensification and urban growth under all three scenarios. The agricultural intensity and the urban growth rate were much higher under the historical trend scenario compared to those with more planning interventions. The dynamics of grasslands depend strongly on projections of livestock and other claims on land resources. In the historical trend scenario, intensively grazed grasslands increase whereas a large amount of the current area of grasslands with livestock converts to forest under the scenario with strong planning. Strong conversion from grasslands with livestock and extensive cropland to semi-natural grasslands was estimated under the conservation scenario. The findings provide an input into discussions about environmental management, planning and sustainable land system design for Hohhot.

  4. Understanding Land System Change Through Scenario-Based Simulations: A Case Study from the Drylands in Northern China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Zhifeng; Verburg, Peter H.; Wu, Jianguo; He, Chunyang

    2017-03-01

    The drylands in northern China are expected to face dramatic land system change in the context of socioeconomic development and environmental conservation. Recent studies have addressed changes of land cover with socioeconomic development in the drylands in northern China. However, the changes in land use intensity and the potential role of environmental conservation measures have yet to be adequately examined. Given the importance of land management intensity to the ecological conditions and regional sustainability, our study projected land system change in Hohhot city in the drylands in northern China from 2013 to 2030. Here, land systems are defined as combinations of land cover and land use intensity. Using the CLUMondo model, we simulated land system change in Hohhot under three scenarios: a scenario following historical trends, a scenario with strong socioeconomic and land use planning, and a scenario focused on achieving environmental conservation targets. Our results showed that Hohhot is likely to experience agricultural intensification and urban growth under all three scenarios. The agricultural intensity and the urban growth rate were much higher under the historical trend scenario compared to those with more planning interventions. The dynamics of grasslands depend strongly on projections of livestock and other claims on land resources. In the historical trend scenario, intensively grazed grasslands increase whereas a large amount of the current area of grasslands with livestock converts to forest under the scenario with strong planning. Strong conversion from grasslands with livestock and extensive cropland to semi-natural grasslands was estimated under the conservation scenario. The findings provide an input into discussions about environmental management, planning and sustainable land system design for Hohhot.

  5. Dissolved oxygen analysis, TMDL model comparison, and particulate matter shunting—Preliminary results from three model scenarios for the Klamath River upstream of Keno Dam, Oregon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sullivan, Annett B.; Rounds, Stewart A.; Deas, Michael L.; Sogutlugil, I. Ertugrul

    2012-01-01

    Efforts are underway to identify actions that would improve water quality in the Link River to Keno Dam reach of the Upper Klamath River in south-central Oregon. To provide further insight into water-quality improvement options, three scenarios were developed, run, and analyzed using previously calibrated CE-QUAL-W2 hydrodynamic and water-quality models. Additional scenarios are under development as part of this ongoing study. Most of these scenarios evaluate changes relative to a "current conditions" model, but in some cases a "natural conditions" model was used that simulated the reach without the effect of point and nonpoint sources and set Upper Klamath Lake at its Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) targets. These scenarios were simulated using a model developed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and Watercourse Engineering, Inc. for the years 2006–09, referred to here as the "USGS model." Another model of the reach was developed by Tetra Tech, Inc. for years 2000 and 2002 to support the Klamath River TMDL process; that model is referred to here as the "TMDL model." The three scenarios described in this report included (1) an analysis of whether this reach of the Upper Klamath River would be in compliance with dissolved oxygen standards if sources met TMDL allocations, (2) an application of more recent datasets to the TMDL model with comparison to results from the USGS model, and (3) an examination of the effect on dissolved oxygen in the Klamath River if particulate material were stopped from entering Klamath Project diversion canals. Updates and modifications to the USGS model are in progress, so in the future these scenarios will be reanalyzed with the updated model and the interim results presented here will be superseded. Significant findings from this phase of the investigation include: * The TMDL analysis used depth-averaged dissolved oxygen concentrations from model output for comparison with dissolved oxygen standards. The Oregon dissolved oxygen

  6. Moving from pixels to parcels: Modeling agricultural scenarios in the northern Great Plains using a hybrid raster- and vector-based approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sohl, T.; Wika, S.; Dornbierer, J.; Sayler, K. L.; Quenzer, R.

    2015-12-01

    Policy and economic driving forces have resulted in a higher demand for biofuel feedstocks in recent years, resulting in substantial increases in cultivated cropland in the northern Great Plains. A cellulosic-based biofuel industry could potentially further impact the region, with grassland and marginal agricultural land converted to perennial grasses or other feedstocks. Scenarios of projected land-use change are needed to enable regional stakeholders to plan for the potential consequences of expanded agricultural activity. Land-use models used to produce spatially explicit scenarios are typically raster-based and are poor at representing ownership units on which land-use change is based. This work describes a hybrid raster/vector-based modeling approach for modeling scenarios of agricultural change in the northern Great Plains. Regional scenarios of agricultural change from 2012 to 2050 were constructed, based partly on the U.S. Department of Energy's Billion Ton Update. Land-use data built from the 2012 Cropland Data Layer and the 2011 National Land Cover Database was used to establish initial conditions. Field boundaries from the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Common Land Unit dataset were used to establish ownership units. A modified version of the U.S. Geological Survey's Forecasting Scenarios of land-use (FORE-SCE) model was used to ingest vector-based field boundaries to facilitate the modeling of a farmer's choice of land use for a given year, while patch-based raster methodologies were used to represent expansion of urban/developed lands and other land use conversions. All modeled data were merged to a common raster dataset representing annual land use from 2012 to 2050. The hybrid modeling approach enabled the use of traditional, raster-based methods while integrating vector-based data to represent agricultural fields and other ownership-based units upon which land-use decisions are typically made.

  7. Potential Effects of a Scenario Earthquake on the Economy of Southern California: Intraregional Commuter, Worker, and Earnings Flow Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sherrouse, Benson C.; Hester, David J.

    2008-01-01

    The Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP) is a collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and various partners from the public and private sectors and academia, meant to improve Southern California's resiliency to natural hazards (Jones and others, 2007). In support of the MHDP objectives, the ShakeOut Scenario was developed. It describes a magnitude 7.8 (M7.8) earthquake along the southernmost 300 kilometers (200 miles) of the San Andreas Fault, identified by geoscientists as a plausible event that will cause moderate to strong shaking over much of the eight-county (Imperial, Kern, Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Diego, and Ventura) Southern California region (Jones and others, 2008). This report uses selected datasets from the U.S. Census Bureau and the State of California's Employment Development Department to develop preliminary estimates of the number and spatial distribution of commuters who cross the San Andreas Fault and to characterize these commuters by the industries in which they work and their total earnings. The analysis concerns the relative exposure of the region's economy to the effects of the earthquake as described by the location, volume, and earnings of those commuters who work in each of the region's economic sectors. It is anticipated that damage to transportation corridors traversing the fault would lead to at least short-term disruptions in the ability of commuters to travel between their places of residence and work.

  8. Learning from global emissions scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Neill, Brian C.; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa

    2008-10-01

    Scenarios of global greenhouse gas emissions have played a key role in climate change analysis for over twenty years. Currently, several research communities are organizing to undertake a new round of scenario development in the lead-up to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). To help inform this process, we assess a number of past efforts to develop and learn from sets of global greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. We conclude that while emissions scenario exercises have likely had substantial benefits for participating modeling teams and produced insights from individual models, learning from the exercises taken as a whole has been more limited. Model comparison exercises have typically focused on the production of large numbers of scenarios while investing little in assessing the results or the production process, perhaps on the assumption that later assessment efforts could play this role. However, much of this assessment potential remains untapped. Efforts such as scenario-related chapters of IPCC reports have been most informative when they have gone to extra lengths to carry out more specific comparison exercises, but in general these assessments do not have the remit or resources to carry out the kind of detailed analysis of scenario results necessary for drawing the most useful conclusions. We recommend that scenario comparison exercises build-in time and resources for assessing scenario results in more detail at the time when they are produced, that these exercises focus on more specific questions to improve the prospects for learning, and that additional scenario assessments are carried out separately from production exercises. We also discuss the obstacles to better assessment that might exist, and how they might be overcome. Finally, we recommend that future work include much greater emphasis on understanding how scenarios are actually used, as a guide to improving scenario production.

  9. Integrating ecosystem services analysis into scenario planning practice: accounting for street tree benefits with i-Tree valuation in Central Texas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hilde, Thomas; Paterson, Robert

    2014-12-15

    Scenario planning continues to gain momentum in the United States as an effective process for building consensus on long-range community plans and creating regional visions for the future. However, efforts to integrate more sophisticated information into the analytical framework to help identify important ecosystem services have lagged in practice. This is problematic because understanding the tradeoffs of land consumption patterns on ecological integrity is central to mitigating the environmental degradation caused by land use change and new development. In this paper we describe how an ecosystem services valuation model, i-Tree, was integrated into a mainstream scenario planning software tool, Envision Tomorrow, to assess the benefits of public street trees for alternative future development scenarios. The tool is then applied to development scenarios from the City of Hutto, TX, a Central Texas Sustainable Places Project demonstration community. The integrated tool represents a methodological improvement for scenario planning practice, offers a way to incorporate ecosystem services analysis into mainstream planning processes, and serves as an example of how open source software tools can expand the range of issues available for community and regional planning consideration, even in cases where community resources are limited. The tool also offers room for future improvements; feasible options include canopy analysis of various future land use typologies, as well as a generalized street tree model for broader U.S. application.

  10. Measurement-Based LoS/NLoS Channel Modeling for Hot-Spot Urban Scenarios in UMTS Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiajing Chen

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available A measurement campaign is introduced for modeling radio channels with either line-of-sight (LoS or non-line-of-sight (NLoS connection between user equipment (UE and NodeB (NB in an operating universal mobile telecommunications system. A space-alternating generalized expectation-maximization (SAGE algorithm is applied to estimate the delays and the complex attenuations of multipath components from the obtained channel impulse responses. Based on a novel LoS detection method of multipath parameter estimates, channels are classified into LoS and NLoS categories. Deterministic models which are named “channel maps” and fading statistical models have been constructed for LoS and NLoS, respectively. In addition, statistics of new parameters, such as the distance between the NB and the UE in LoS/NLoS scenarios, the life-distance of LoS channel, the LoS existence probability per location and per NB, the power variation at LoS to NLoS transition and vice versa, and the transition duration, are extracted. These models are applicable for designing and performance evaluation of transmission techniques or systems used by distinguishing the LoS and NLoS channels.

  11. A scenario for solar wind penetration of earth's magnetic tail based on ion composition data from the ISEE 1 spacecraft

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lennartsson, W.

    1992-01-01

    Based on He(2+) and H(-) ion composition data from the Plasma Composition Experiment on ISEE 1, a scenario is proposed for the solar wind penetration of the earth's magnetic tail, which does not require that the solar wind plasma be magnetized. While this study does not take issue with the notion that earth's magnetic field merges with the solar wind magnetic field on a regular basis, it focuses on certain aspects of interaction between the solar wind particles and the earth's field, e.g, the fact that the geomagnetic tail always has a plasma sheet, even during times when the physical signs of magnetic merging are weak or absent. It is argued that the solar plasma enters along slots between the tail lobes and the plasma sheet, even quite close to earth, convected inward along the plasma sheet boundary layer or adjacent to it, by the electric fringe field of the ever present low-latitude magnetopause boundary layer (LLBL). The required E x B drifts are produced by closing LLBL equipotential surfaces through the plasma sheet.

  12. A scenario for solar wind penetration of earth's magnetic tail based on ion composition data from the ISEE 1 spacecraft

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lennartsson, W.

    1992-12-01

    Based on He(2+) and H(-) ion composition data from the Plasma Composition Experiment on ISEE 1, a scenario is proposed for the solar wind penetration of the earth's magnetic tail, which does not require that the solar wind plasma be magnetized. While this study does not take issue with the notion that earth's magnetic field merges with the solar wind magnetic field on a regular basis, it focuses on certain aspects of interaction between the solar wind particles and the earth's field, e.g, the fact that the geomagnetic tail always has a plasma sheet, even during times when the physical signs of magnetic merging are weak or absent. It is argued that the solar plasma enters along slots between the tail lobes and the plasma sheet, even quite close to earth, convected inward along the plasma sheet boundary layer or adjacent to it, by the electric fringe field of the ever present low-latitude magnetopause boundary layer (LLBL). The required E x B drifts are produced by closing LLBL equipotential surfaces through the plasma sheet.

  13. On Emergency Scenario Library Based on Knowledge Element%基于知识元的突发事件情景库研究*

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张承伟; 戴文超; 李建伟; 王石影; 王延章

    2013-01-01

    Based on the research of emergency management and decision-making, this paper proposes a concept of scenario library based on knowledge element, focusing on the scenario structure, scenario library decision support process and related rules, it provides a new way for scenario building. On the one hand, this study complements the related research for scenario model management library, and es-tablishes the system of scenario model management and application;on the other hand, it provides a more systematic decision support re-pository for emergencies, reducing the risks and uncertainties of responsive decision-making, and thus provides a foundation for efficient response to emergencies under different scenarios.%针对突发事件的应急管理与决策的研究,提出以知识元为基础的情景库理念,重点阐述了情景结构、情景库辅助决策的过程及相关规则,为情景构建提供了新的途径。本研究一方面补充了针对情景模型管理库的相关研究,建立了情景模型管理与应用的基本体系;另一方面为突发事件的应对提供了较为系统的决策支持储备库,降低了应对决策的风险与不确定性,为高效应对不同情景下的突发事件提供了基础。

  14. Potential Effects of a Scenario Earthquake on the Economy of Southern California: Labor Market Exposure and Sensitivity Analysis to a Magnitude 7.8 Earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sherrouse, Benson C.; Hester, David J.; Wein, Anne M.

    2008-01-01

    The Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP) is a collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and various partners from the public and private sectors and academia, meant to improve Southern California's resiliency to natural hazards (Jones and others, 2007). In support of the MHDP objectives, the ShakeOut Scenario was developed. It describes a magnitude 7.8 (M7.8) earthquake along the southernmost 300 kilometers (200 miles) of the San Andreas Fault, identified by geoscientists as a plausible event that will cause moderate to strong shaking over much of the eight-county (Imperial, Kern, Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Diego, and Ventura) Southern California region. This report contains an exposure and sensitivity analysis of economic Super Sectors in terms of labor and employment statistics. Exposure is measured as the absolute counts of labor market variables anticipated to experience each level of Instrumental Intensity (a proxy measure of damage). Sensitivity is the percentage of the exposure of each Super Sector to each Instrumental Intensity level. The analysis concerns the direct effect of the scenario earthquake on economic sectors and provides a baseline for the indirect and interactive analysis of an input-output model of the regional economy. The analysis is inspired by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report that analyzed the labor market losses (exposure) of a M6.9 earthquake on the Hayward fault by overlaying geocoded labor market data on Instrumental Intensity values. The method used here is influenced by the ZIP-code-level data provided by the California Employment Development Department (CA EDD), which requires the assignment of Instrumental Intensities to ZIP codes. The ZIP-code-level labor market data includes the number of business establishments, employees, and quarterly payroll categorized by the North American Industry Classification System. According to the analysis results, nearly 225,000 business

  15. Particle reduction strategies - PAREST. Gridded European emission data for projection years 2010, 2015 and 2020 based on the IIASA GAINS NEC scenarios. Teilbericht

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gon, Hugo Denier van der; Visschedijk, Antoon; Brugh, Hans van den [TNO Earth, Environment and Life Sciences, Utrecht (Netherlands)

    2013-06-15

    Projected emissions for selected scenarios for the years 2010, 2015 and 2020 were obtained from the GAINS NEC scenario reports and distributed on a high resolution over Europe using the TNO gridding tools. These emission maps are available as model input in the PAREST project to model the contribution of Europe to air quality in Germany in 2010, 2015 and 2020 (see note Rainer Stern, May 2009). The scenarios have a significant influence on absolute emission levels for the countries that were covered by IIASA GAINS. This suggests that emission changes in countries were no scenarios were available (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia) or where only a projection year baseline is available (all non-EU) may be subject to significant changes as well (but these are quite far from Germany). For future projects it is recommended to make simple and transparent scenarios for these other countries, as well as for International Shipping. The change in emissions from the base year 2005 to the projection year 2010 needs to be interpreted with care. This because some methodology differences between 2005 official emission data as used in the PAREST base year 2005 emission set and GAINS 2010 data exist. It is expected that the emission reduction steps towards 2020 are more realistic.

  16. Scenario Analysis on Climate Change Impacts of Urban Land Expansion under Different Urbanization Patterns: A Case Study of Wuhan Metropolitan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xinli Ke

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Urban land expansion plays an important role in climate change. It is significant to select a reasonable urban expansion pattern to mitigate the impact of urban land expansion on the regional climate in the rapid urbanization process. In this paper, taking Wuhan metropolitan as the case study area, and three urbanization patterns scenarios are designed to simulate spatial patterns of urban land expansion in the future using the Partitioned and Asynchronous Cellular Automata Model. Then, simulation results of land use are adjusted and inputted into WRF (Weather Research and Forecast model to simulate regional climate change. The results show that: (1 warming effect is strongest under centralized urbanization while it is on the opposite under decentralized scenario; (2 the warming effect is stronger and wider in centralized urbanization scenario than in decentralized urbanization scenario; (3 the impact trends of urban land use expansion on precipitation are basically the same under different scenarios; (4 and spatial distribution of rainfall was more concentrated under centralized urbanization scenario, and there is a rainfall center of wider scope, greater intensity. Accordingly, it can be concluded that decentralized urbanization is a reasonable urbanization pattern to mitigate climate change in rapid urbanization period.

  17. Future waste treatment and energy systems – examples of joint scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Münster, M., E-mail: maem@dtu.dk [System Analysis Division, DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark, Frederiksborgvej 399, 4000 Roskilde (Denmark); Finnveden, G. [KTH Royal Institute of Technology, School of Architecture and the Built Environment, Department of Planning and Environment, Division of Environmental Strategies Research – fms, 100 44 Stockholm (Sweden); Wenzel, H. [Institute of Chemical Engineering, Biotechnology and Environmental Technology, University of Southern Denmark, Niels Bohrs Allé 1, 5230 Odense M (Denmark)

    2013-11-15

    Highlights: • Approach for use of scenarios dealing with both waste management and energy issues. • Overall scenarios for the common project and sub-scenarios in parts of the project. • Combining different types of scenarios to the tools of different disciplines. • Use of explorative external scenarios based on marginals for consequential LCA. - Abstract: Development and use of scenarios for large interdisciplinary projects is a complicated task. This article provides practical examples of how it has been carried out in two projects addressing waste management and energy issues respectively. Based on experiences from the two projects, recommendations are made for an approach concerning development of scenarios in projects dealing with both waste management and energy issues. Recommendations are given to develop and use overall scenarios for the project and leave room for sub-scenarios in parts of the project. Combining different types of scenarios is recommended, too, in order to adapt to the methods and tools of different disciplines, such as developing predictive scenarios with general equilibrium tools and analysing explorative scenarios with energy system analysis tools. Furthermore, as marginals identified in differing future background systems determine the outcomes of consequential life cycle assessments (LCAs), it is considered advisable to develop and use explorative external scenarios based on possible marginals as a framework for consequential LCAs. This approach is illustrated using an on-going Danish research project.

  18. Climate Change Effects on Heat- and Cold-Related Mortality in the Netherlands: A Scenario-Based Integrated Environmental Health Impact Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maud M. T. E. Huynen

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Although people will most likely adjust to warmer temperatures, it is still difficult to assess what this adaptation will look like. This scenario-based integrated health impacts assessment explores baseline (1981–2010 and future (2050 population attributable fractions (PAF of mortality due to heat (PAFheat and cold (PAFcold, by combining observed temperature–mortality relationships with the Dutch KNMI’14 climate scenarios and three adaptation scenarios. The 2050 model results without adaptation reveal a decrease in PAFcold (8.90% at baseline; 6.56%–7.85% in 2050 that outweighs the increase in PAFheat (1.15% at baseline; 1.66%–2.52% in 2050. When the 2050 model runs applying the different adaptation scenarios are considered as well, however, the PAFheat ranges between 0.94% and 2.52% and the PAFcold between 6.56% and 9.85%. Hence, PAFheat and PAFcold can decrease as well as increase in view of climate change (depending on the adaptation scenario. The associated annual mortality burdens in 2050—accounting for both the increasing temperatures and mortality trend—show that heat-related deaths will range between 1879 and 5061 (1511 at baseline and cold-related deaths between 13,149 and 19,753 (11,727 at baseline. Our results clearly illustrate that model outcomes are not only highly dependent on climate scenarios, but also on adaptation assumptions. Hence, a better understanding of (the impact of various plausible adaptation scenarios is required to advance future integrated health impact assessments.

  19. Climate Change Effects on Heat- and Cold-Related Mortality in the Netherlands: A Scenario-Based Integrated Environmental Health Impact Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huynen, Maud M. T. E.; Martens, Pim

    2015-01-01

    Although people will most likely adjust to warmer temperatures, it is still difficult to assess what this adaptation will look like. This scenario-based integrated health impacts assessment explores baseline (1981–2010) and future (2050) population attributable fractions (PAF) of mortality due to heat (PAFheat) and cold (PAFcold), by combining observed temperature–mortality relationships with the Dutch KNMI’14 climate scenarios and three adaptation scenarios. The 2050 model results without adaptation reveal a decrease in PAFcold (8.90% at baseline; 6.56%–7.85% in 2050) that outweighs the increase in PAFheat (1.15% at baseline; 1.66%–2.52% in 2050). When the 2050 model runs applying the different adaptation scenarios are considered as well, however, the PAFheat ranges between 0.94% and 2.52% and the PAFcold between 6.56% and 9.85%. Hence, PAFheat and PAFcold can decrease as well as increase in view of climate change (depending on the adaptation scenario). The associated annual mortality burdens in 2050—accounting for both the increasing temperatures and mortality trend—show that heat-related deaths will range between 1879 and 5061 (1511 at baseline) and cold-related deaths between 13,149 and 19,753 (11,727 at baseline). Our results clearly illustrate that model outcomes are not only highly dependent on climate scenarios, but also on adaptation assumptions. Hence, a better understanding of (the impact of various) plausible adaptation scenarios is required to advance future integrated health impact assessments. PMID:26512680

  20. Source-Based Modeling Of Urban Stormwater Quality Response to the Selected Scenarios Combining Future Changes in Climate and Socio-Economic Factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borris, Matthias; Leonhardt, Günther; Marsalek, Jiri; Österlund, Heléne; Viklander, Maria

    2016-08-01

    The assessment of future trends in urban stormwater quality should be most helpful for ensuring the effectiveness of the existing stormwater quality infrastructure in the future and mitigating the associated impacts on receiving waters. Combined effects of expected changes in climate and socio-economic factors on stormwater quality were examined in two urban test catchments by applying a source-based computer model (WinSLAMM) for TSS and three heavy metals (copper, lead, and zinc) for various future scenarios. Generally, both catchments showed similar responses to the future scenarios and pollutant loads were generally more sensitive to changes in socio-economic factors (i.e., increasing traffic intensities, growth and intensification of the individual land-uses) than in the climate. Specifically, for the selected Intermediate socio-economic scenario and two climate change scenarios (RSP = 2.6 and 8.5), the TSS loads from both catchments increased by about 10 % on average, but when applying the Intermediate climate change scenario (RCP = 4.5) for two SSPs, the Sustainability and Security scenarios (SSP1 and SSP3), the TSS loads increased on average by 70 %. Furthermore, it was observed that well-designed and maintained stormwater treatment facilities targeting local pollution hotspots exhibited the potential to significantly improve stormwater quality, however, at potentially high costs. In fact, it was possible to reduce pollutant loads from both catchments under the future Sustainability scenario (on average, e.g., TSS were reduced by 20 %), compared to the current conditions. The methodology developed in this study was found useful for planning climate change adaptation strategies in the context of local conditions.

  1. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Neill, Brian C.; Tebaldi, Claudia; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Eyring, Veronika; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Hurtt, George; Knutti, Reto; Kriegler, Elmar; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Lowe, Jason; Meehl, Gerald A.; Moss, Richard; Riahi, Keywan; Sanderson, Benjamin M.

    2016-09-01

    Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. In this paper, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate a wide range of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. At the same time, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2 °C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. To serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially explicit

  2. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    O& amp; apos; Neill, Brian C.; Tebaldi, Claudia; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Eyring, Veronika; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Hurtt, George; Knutti, Reto; Kriegler, Elmar; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Lowe, Jason; Meehl, Gerald A.; Moss, Richard; Riahi, Keywan; Sanderson, Benjamin M.

    2016-01-01

    Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. In this paper, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate a wide range of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. At the same time, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2 °C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. To serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially

  3. Techno-Economic Analysis of Biofuels Production Based on Gasification

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Swanson, R. M.; Platon, A.; Satrio, J. A.; Brown, R. C.; Hsu, D. D.

    2010-11-01

    This study compares capital and production costs of two biomass-to-liquid production plants based on gasification. The first biorefinery scenario is an oxygen-fed, low-temperature (870?C), non-slagging, fluidized bed gasifier. The second scenario is an oxygen-fed, high-temperature (1,300?C), slagging, entrained flow gasifier. Both are followed by catalytic Fischer-Tropsch synthesis and hydroprocessing to naphtha-range (gasoline blend stock) and distillate-range (diesel blend stock) liquid fractions. Process modeling software (Aspen Plus) is utilized to organize the mass and energy streams and cost estimation software is used to generate equipment costs. Economic analysis is performed to estimate the capital investment and operating costs. Results show that the total capital investment required for nth plant scenarios is $610 million and $500 million for high-temperature and low-temperature scenarios, respectively. Product value (PV) for the high-temperature and low-temperature scenarios is estimated to be $4.30 and $4.80 per gallon of gasoline equivalent (GGE), respectively, based on a feedstock cost of $75 per dry short ton. Sensitivity analysis is also performed on process and economic parameters. This analysis shows that total capital investment and feedstock cost are among the most influential parameters affecting the PV.

  4. A Study of the Competency of Third Year Medical Students to Interpret Biochemically Based Clinical Scenarios Using Knowledge and Skills Gained in Year 1 and 2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gowda, Veena Bhaskar S.; Nagaiah, Bhaskar Hebbani; Sengodan, Bharathi

    2016-01-01

    Medical students build clinical knowledge on the grounds of previously obtained basic knowledge. The study aimed to evaluate the competency of third year medical students to interpret biochemically based clinical scenarios using knowledge and skills gained during year 1 and 2 of undergraduate medical training. Study was conducted on year 3 MBBS…

  5. ICT-Supported, Scenario-Based Learning in Preclinical Veterinary Science Education: Quantifying Learning Outcomes and Facilitating the Novice-Expert Transition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seddon, Jennifer M.; McDonald, Brenda; Schmidt, Adele L.

    2012-01-01

    Problem and/or scenario-based learning is often deployed in preclinical education and training as a means of: (a) developing students' capacity to respond to authentic, real-world problems; (b) facilitating integration of knowledge across subject areas, and; (c) increasing motivation for learning. Six information and communication technology (ICT)…

  6. Energy scenarios for the nordic region towards 2035

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fidje, Audun

    2008-07-01

    This report summarizes the assumptions, methodology and main results of the MARKAL analysis of options for a sustainable energy future in the Nordic region. The work is based on the Nordic MARKAL model, which has been modified such that it may be used to analyse a large number of scenarios, typically 500 to 5000. The scenarios are developed by analysis a set of strategies and uncertainties. All these strategies and uncertainties are combined such that we generate in total 1 152 scenarios. The main purpose of generating a large number of scenarios was to facilitate for multi-criteria trade-off analysis. Overall results from this analysis show that large reductions of CO{sub 2} emissions are possible at CO{sub 2} cost below 50 EUR/t CO{sub 2} (author)

  7. Projectile Base Flow Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    2007-11-02

    S) AND ADDRESS(ES) DCW Industries, Inc. 5354 Palm Drive La Canada, CA 91011 8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION...REPORT NUMBER DCW -38-R-05 9. SPONSORING / MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) U. S. Army Research Office...Turbulence Modeling for CFD, Second Edition, DCW Industries, Inc., La Cañada, CA. Wilcox, D. C. (2001), “Projectile Base Flow Analysis,” DCW

  8. Research of Job Scenario-based English in High Vocational English Teaching%高职英语职场情景化教学的研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    孙静

    2012-01-01

    Higher vocational English teaching aims at adapting to the occupational application demand of enterprises and learners, and the job scenario-based teaching just can embody the requirement of practical English ability needed by job. Implementing job scenario-based teaching should select teaching resource in advance, and make preparation for scenario task before class. At the same time, it needs to have job scenario-based teaching in class and practical class well.%高职英语教学的目的是为了适应企业和学习者的职业应用需要,而职场情景化教学恰恰能在教学中体现出职场所需的实用性英语能力要求。实施职场情景化教学,要提前选择教学资源,做好课前情景任务准备,同时要分别上好课堂上职场情景化教学和实践课堂上的教学。

  9. Assessing spatial uncertainties of land allocation using a scenario approach and sensitivity analysis: a study for land use in Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verburg, Peter H; Tabeau, Andrzej; Hatna, Erez

    2013-09-01

    Land change model outcomes are vulnerable to multiple types of uncertainty, including uncertainty in input data, structural uncertainties in the model and uncertainties in model parameters. In coupled model systems the uncertainties propagate between the models. This paper assesses uncertainty of changes in future spatial allocation of agricultural land in Europe as they arise from a general equilibrium model coupled to a spatial land use allocation model. Two contrasting scenarios are used to capture some of the uncertainty in the development of typical combinations of economic, demographic and policy variables. The scenario storylines include different measurable assumptions concerning scenario specific drivers (variables) and parameters. Many of these assumptions are estimations and thus include a certain level of uncertainty regarding their true values. This leads to uncertainty within the scenario outcomes. In this study we have explored how uncertainty in national-level assumptions within the contrasting scenario assumptions translates into uncertainty in the location of changes in agricultural land use in Europe. The results indicate that uncertainty in coarse-scale assumptions does not translate into a homogeneous spread of the uncertainty within Europe. Some regions are more certain than others in facing specific land change trajectories irrespective of the uncertainty in the macro-level assumptions. The spatial spread of certain and more uncertain locations of land change is dependent on location conditions as well as on the overall scenario conditions. Translating macro-level uncertainties to uncertainties in spatial patterns of land change makes it possible to better understand and visualize the land change consequences of uncertainties in model input variables.

  10. Demand scenarios, worldwide

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schaefer, A. [Massachusetts Inst. of Technology, Center for Technology, Policy and Industrial Development and the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Cambridge, MA (United States)

    1996-11-01

    Existing methods are inadequate for developing aggregate (regional and global) and long-term (several decades) passenger transport demand scenarios, since they are mainly based on simple extensions of current patterns rather than causal relationships that account for the competition among transport modes (aircraft, automobiles, buses and trains) to provide transport services. The demand scenario presented in this paper is based on two empirically proven invariances of human behavior. First, transport accounts for 10 to 15 percent of household total expenditures for those owning an automobile, and around 5 percent for non-motorized households on average (travel money budget). Second, the mean time spent traveling is approximately one hour per capita per day (travel time budget). These two budgets constraints determine the dynamics of the scenario: rising income increases per capita expenditure on travel which, in turn, increase demand for mobility. Limited travel time constraints travelers to shift to faster transport systems. The scenario is initiated with the first integrated historical data set on traffic volume in 11 world regions and the globe from 1960 to 1990 for all major modes of motorized transport. World average per capita traffic volume, which was 1,800 kilometers in 1960 and 4,2090 in 1990, is estimated to rise to 7,900 kilometers in 2020 - given a modest average increase in Gross World Product of 1.9% per year. Higher economic growth rates in Asian regions result in an increase in regional per capita traffic volume up to a factor of 5.3 from 1990 levels. Modal splits continue shifting to more flexible and faster modes of transport. At one point, passenger cars can no longer satisfy the increasing demand for speed (i.e. rising mobility within a fixed time budget). In North America it is estimated that the absolute traffic volume of automobiles will gradually decline starting in the 2010s. (author) 13 figs., 6 tabs., 35 refs.

  11. 基于知识使用场景的知识推送方法研究%Knowledge push based on knowledge usage scenario

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    赵晓玲; 郭钢; 董元发

    2013-01-01

    针对知识推送问题,建立了基于场景的知识推送模型、场景驱动的知识库模型。采用语义相似度的方法计算知识使用场景的相似度,通过知识使用场景与知识的映射,实现与任务场景最匹配知识的推送。以某气门生产企业的工艺知识推送为例验证了该知识推送方法的可行性。%To solve the problem of knowledge pushing, the models of knowledge pushing based on knowledge usage scenario and knowledge base drove by usage scenario are proposed. Semantic similarity is used to calculate the similarity between knowl-edge usage scenario and knowledge index. According to the relationship between knowledge and knowledge usage scenario, knowledge is recognized and pushed to the task. A case study of process knowledge push in a valve production enterprise is pro-vided to demonstrate the feasibility of this method.

  12. Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis of a Fire-Induced Accident Scenario Involving Binary Variables and Mechanistic Codes

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-09-10

    Simulation of Fire Scenarios, VTT Building and Transport, PO Box 1803, FIN-02044 VTT , Finland, 2003. [11] Fire PRA Methods Enhancements: Additions...FMSNL 21 INPUT TO PFS I. CFAST CONTROL PFS: Probabilistic Fire Simulator v4.0 CFAST Model and Execution Control VTT Technical Research Centre

  13. A Stochastic Programming Approach with Improved Multi-Criteria Scenario-Based Solution Method for Sustainable Reverse Logistics Design of Waste Electrical and Electronic Equipment (WEEE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hao Yu

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Today, the increased public concern about sustainable development and more stringent environmental regulations have become important driving forces for value recovery from end-of-life and end-of use products through reverse logistics. Waste electrical and electronic equipment (WEEE contains both valuable components that need to be recycled and hazardous substances that have to be properly treated or disposed of, so the design of a reverse logistics system for sustainable treatment of WEEE is of paramount importance. This paper presents a stochastic mixed integer programming model for designing and planning a generic multi-source, multi-echelon, capacitated, and sustainable reverse logistics network for WEEE management under uncertainty. The model takes into account both economic efficiency and environmental impacts in decision-making, and the environmental impacts are evaluated in terms of carbon emissions. A multi-criteria two-stage scenario-based solution method is employed and further developed in this study for generating the optimal solution for the stochastic optimization problem. The proposed model and solution method are validated through a numerical experiment and sensitivity analyses presented later in this paper, and an analysis of the results is also given to provide a deep managerial insight into the application of the proposed stochastic optimization model.

  14. Water use implications of biofuel scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teter, J.; Mishra, G. S.; Yeh, S.

    2012-12-01

    Existing studies rely upon attributional lifecycle analysis (LCA) approaches to estimate water intensity of biofuels in liters of irrigated/evapotranspiration water consumed for biofuel production. Such approaches can be misleading. From a policy perspective, a better approach is to compare differential water impacts among scenarios on a landscape scale. We address the shortcomings of existing studies by using consequential LCA, and incorporate direct and indirect land use (changes) of biofuel scenarios, marginal vs. average biofuel water use estimates, future climate, and geographic heterogeneity. We use the outputs of a partial equilibrium economic model, climate and soil data, and a process-based crop-soil-climate-water model to estimate differences in green water (GW - directly from precipitation to soil) and blue water (BW - supplied by irrigation) use among three scenarios: (1) business-as-usual (BAU), (2) Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) mandates, and (3) a national Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) plus the RFS scenario. We use spatial statistical methods to interpolate key climatic variables using daily climate observations for the contiguous USA. Finally, we use FAO's crop model AquaCrop to estimate the domestic GW and BW impacts of biofuel policies from 2007-2035. We assess the differences among scenarios along the following metrics: (1) crop area expansion at the county level, including prime and marginal lands, (2) crop-specific and overall annual/seasonal water balances including (a) water inflows (irrigation & precipitation), (b) crop-atmosphere interactions: (evaporation & transpiration) and (d) soil-water flows (runoff & soil infiltration), in mm 3 /acre over the relevant time period. The functional unit of analysis is the BW and GW requirements of biofuels (mm3 per Btu biofuel) at the county level. Differential water use impacts among scenarios are a primarily a function of (1) land use conversion, in particular that of formerly uncropped land classes

  15. Renewable Energy and Efficiency Modeling Analysis Partnership: An Analysis of How Different Energy Models Addressed a Common High Renewable Energy Penetration Scenario in 2025

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Blair, N.; Jenkin, T.; Milford, J.; Short, W.; Sullivan, P.; Evans, D.; Lieberman, E.; Goldstein, G.; Wright, E.; Jayaraman, K.; Venkatech, B.; Kleiman, G.; Namovicz, C.; Smith, B.; Palmer, K.; Wiser, R.; Wood, F.

    2009-09-30

    and/or different answers in response to a set of focused energy-related questions. The focus was on understanding reasons for model differences, not on policy implications, even though a policy of high renewable penetration was used for the analysis. A group process was used to identify the potential question (or questions) to be addressed through the project. In late 2006, increasing renewable energy penetration in the electricity sector was chosen from among several options as the general policy to model. From this framework, the analysts chose a renewable portfolio standard (RPS) as the way to implement the required renewable energy market penetration in the models. An RPS was chosen because it was (i) of interest and represented the group's consensus choice, and (ii) tractable and not too burdensome for the modelers. Because the modelers and analysts were largely using their own resources, it was important to consider the degree of effort required. In fact, several of the modelers who started this process had to discontinue participation because of other demands on their time. Federal and state RPS policy is an area of active political interest and debate. Recognizing this, participants used this exercise to gain insight into energy model structure and performance. The results are not intended to provide any particular insight into policy design or be used for policy advocacy, and participants are not expected to form a policy stance based on the outcomes of the modeling. The goals of this REMAP project - in terms of the main topic of renewable penetration - were to: (1) Compare models and understand why they may give different results to the same question, (2) Improve the rigor and consistency of assumptions used across models, and (3) Evaluate the ability of models to measure the impacts of high renewable-penetration scenarios.

  16. Future climate in world regions: an intercomparison of model-based projections for the new IPCC emissions scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ruosteenoja, K.; Carter, T.R.; Jylhae, K.; Tuomenvirta, H.

    2003-07-01

    Projections of changes in seasonal surface air temperature and precipitation for three 30-year periods during the 21st century in 32 sub-continental scale regions are presented. This information may offer useful guidance on the selection of climate scenarios for regional impact studies. The climate changes have been simulated by seven coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs), the greenhouse gas and aerosol forcing being inferred from the SRES emission scenarios A1F1, A2, B1 and B2. For a majority of the AOGCMs, simulations have only been conducted for scenarios A2 and B2. Projections for other scenarios were then extrapolated from the available runs applying a pattern-scaling technique. In tests, this method proved to be fairly accurate, the correlation between the AOGCM-simulated and the corresponding pattern-scaled response to the A2 scenario for the end of the 21st century being generally {approx} 0.97 - 0.99 for temperature and {approx} 0.9 or higher for precipitation. Projected changes of temperature and precipitation are presented in the form of 384 scatter diagrams. The model-simulated temperature changes were almost invariably statistically significant, i.e., they fell clearly outside the natural multi-decadal variability derived from 1000-year unforced coupled AOGCM simulations. For precipitation, fewer modelled changes were statistically significant, especially in the earliest projection period 2010-2039. Differences in the projections given by various models were substantial, of the same order of magnitude by the end of the century as differences among the responses to separate forcing scenarios. Nevertheless, the surface air temperature increased in all regions and seasons. For precipitation, changes with both sign occurred, but an increase of regional precipitation was more common than a decrease. All models simulate higher precipitation at high latitudes and enhanced summer monsoon precipitation for Southern and Eastern Asia. There

  17. 城市暴雨内涝情景模拟与灾害风险评估%Community-based scenario modelling and disaster risk assessment of urban rainstorm waterlogging

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    尹占娥; 殷杰; 许世远; 温家洪

    2011-01-01

    Scenario modelling and the risk assessment of natural disasters is one of the hotspots in disaster research. However, up until now, urban natural disaster risk assessments lack common procedures and programrnes. This paper selects rainstorm waterlogging as a disaster to research, which is one of the most frequently occurring hazards for most cities in China. As an example, we used a small-scale integrated methodology to assess risks relating to rainstorm waterlogging hazards in the Jing'an District of Shanghai. Based on the basic concept of disaster risk, this paper applies scenario modelling to express the risk of small-scale urban rainstorm waterlogging disasters in different return periods. Through this analysis of vulnerability and exposure, we simulate different disaster scenarios and propose a comprehensive analysis method and procedure for small-scale urban storm waterlogging disaster risk assessments. A grid-based Geographical Information System (GIS) approach,including an urban terrain model, an urban rainfall model and an urban drainage model, was applied to simulate inundation area and depth. Stage-damage curves for residential buildings and contents were then generated by the loss data of waterlogging from field surveys, which were further applied to analyse vulnerability, exposure and loss assessment. Finally, the exceedance probability curve for disaster damage was constructed using the damage of each simulated event and the respective exceedance probabilities. A framework was also developed for coupling the waterlogging risk with the risk planning and management through the exceedance probability curve and annual average waterlogging loss. This is a new exploration for small-scale urban natural disaster scenario simulation and risk assessment.

  18. The impact of China's vehicle emissions on regional air quality in 2000 and 2020: a scenario analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Saikawa

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available The number of vehicles in China has been increasing rapidly. We evaluate the impact of current and possible future vehicle emissions from China on Asian air quality. We modify the Regional Emission Inventory in Asia (REAS for China's road transport sector in 2000 using updated Chinese data for the number of vehicles, annual mileage, and emission factors. We develop two scenarios for 2020: a scenario where emission factors remain the same as they were in 2000 (No-Policy, NoPol, and a scenario where Euro 3 vehicle emission standards are applied to all vehicles (except motorcycles and rural vehicles. The Euro 3 scenario is an approximation of what may be the case in 2020 as, starting in 2008, all new vehicles in China (except motorcycles were required to meet the Euro 3 emission standards. Using the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF/Chem, we examine the regional air quality response to China's vehicle emissions in 2000 and in 2020 for the NoPol and Euro 3 scenarios. We evaluate the 2000 model results with observations in Japan, China, Korea, and Russia. Under NoPol in 2020, emissions of carbon monoxide (CO, nitrogen oxides (NOx, non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs, black carbon (BC, and organic carbon (OC from China's vehicles more than double compared to the 2000 baseline. If all vehicles meet the Euro 3 regulations in 2020, however, these emissions are reduced by more than 50% relative to NoPol. The implementation of stringent vehicle emission standards leads to a large, simultaneous reduction of the surface ozone (O3 mixing ratios and particulate matter (PM2.5 concentrations. In the Euro 3 scenario, surface O3 is reduced by more than 10 ppbv and surface PM2.5 is reduced by more than 10 μg m−3 relative to NoPol in Northeast China in all seasons. In spring, surface O3 mixing ratios and PM2.5 concentrations in

  19. Alternative zoning scenarios for regional sustainable land use controls in China: a knowledge-based multiobjective optimisation model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xia, Yin; Liu, Dianfeng; Liu, Yaolin; He, Jianhua; Hong, Xiaofeng

    2014-08-28

    Alternative land use zoning scenarios provide guidance for sustainable land use controls. This study focused on an ecologically vulnerable catchment on the Loess Plateau in China, proposed a novel land use zoning model, and generated alternative zoning solutions to satisfy the various requirements of land use stakeholders and managers. This model combined multiple zoning objectives, i.e., maximum zoning suitability, maximum planning compatibility and maximum spatial compactness, with land use constraints by using goal programming technique, and employed a modified simulated annealing algorithm to search for the optimal zoning solutions. The land use zoning knowledge was incorporated into the initialisation operator and neighbourhood selection strategy of the simulated annealing algorithm to improve its efficiency. The case study indicates that the model is both effective and robust. Five optimal zoning scenarios of the study area were helpful for satisfying the requirements of land use controls in loess hilly regions, e.g., land use intensification, agricultural protection and environmental conservation.

  20. A renewable energy scenario for Aalborg Municipality based on low-temperature geothermal heat, wind power and biomass

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Østergaard, Poul Alberg; Mathiesen, Brian Vad; Möller, Bernd;

    2010-01-01

    Aalborg Municipality, Denmark, wishes to investigate the possibilities of becoming independent of fossil fuels. This article describes a scenario for supplying Aalborg Municipality’s energy needs through a combination of low-temperature geothermal heat, wind power and biomass. Of particular focus...... in the scenario is how low-temperature geothermal heat may be utilised in district heating (DH) systems. The analyses show that it is possible to cover Aalborg Municipality’s energy needs through the use of locally available sources in combination with significant electricity savings, heat savings, reductions...... in industrial fuel use and savings and fuel-substitutions in the transport sector. With biomass resources being finite, the two marginal energy resources in Aalborg are geothermal heat and wind power. If geothermal heat is utilised more, wind power may be limited and vice versa. The system still relies...

  1. Multi-board concept - a scenario based approach for supporting product quality and life cycle oriented design

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Robotham, Antony John; Hertzum, Morten

    2000-01-01

    This paper will describe the multi-board concept, which is a working approach for supporting life cycle oriented design and product quality. Aspects of this concept include construction of a common working environment where multiple display boards depict scenarios of the product life cycle......, creating a shared quality mindset amongst design-ers, and developing creativity and synthesis in product design. The appropriateness of scenarios for supporting life cycle oriented design will be ar-gued and preliminary results from early experi-mentation will be presented.Initial results lead us...... to believe that the multi-board concept promises to be a useful means of communication amongst the design team. We be-lieve that it fosters a thorough understanding of life cycle events, which, in turn, inspires the design of innovative products of the highest quality....

  2. The effectiveness and cost effectiveness of dark chocolate consumption as prevention therapy in people at high risk of cardiovascular disease: best case scenario analysis using a Markov model

    OpenAIRE

    Zomer, Ella; Owen, Alice; Magliano, Dianna J; Liew, Danny; Reid, Christopher M

    2012-01-01

    Objective To model the long term effectiveness and cost effectiveness of daily dark chocolate consumption in a population with metabolic syndrome at high risk of cardiovascular disease. Design Best case scenario analysis using a Markov model. Setting Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle study. Participants 2013 people with hypertension who met the criteria for metabolic syndrome, with no history of cardiovascular disease and not receiving antihypertensive therapy. Main outcome measures ...

  3. Combining exploratory scenarios and participatory backcasting: using an agent-based model in participatory policy design for a multi-functional landscape.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Berkel, Derek B; Verburg, Peter H

    While the merits of local participatory policy design are widely recognised, limited use is made of model-based scenario results to inform such stakeholder involvement. In this paper we present the findings of a study using an agent based model to help stakeholders consider, discuss and incorporate spatial and temporal processes in a backcasting exercise for rural development. The study is carried out in the Dutch region called the Achterhoek. Region-specific scenarios were constructed based on interviews with local experts. The scenarios are simulated in an agent based model incorporating rural residents and farmer characteristics, the environment and different policy interventions for realistic projection of landscape evolution. Results of the model simulations were presented to stakeholders representing different rural sectors at a workshop. The results indicate that illustration of the spatial configuration of landscape changes is appreciated by stakeholders. Testing stakeholders' solutions by way of model simulations revealed that the effectiveness of local interventions is strongly related to exogenous processes such as market competition and endogenous processes like local willingness to engage in multifunctional activities. The integration of multi-agent modelling and participatory backcasting is effective as it offers a possibility to initiate discussion between experts and stakeholders bringing together different expertise.

  4. Estimation model of training support system for Finite Element Analysis and implementation of training scenario as knowledge patterns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mitsuhiro Murayama

    2003-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an arrangement method of FEA modeling knowledge by using a design pattern methodology, and deals with an estimation method of FEA training scenario. The prototype support system and its training knowledge can be arranged and classified in several patterns, while the mechanics of a beam structure has been picked up as an example of training subject. Essential evaluation problems were prepared for checking the synthetic achievement and the effectivity of training support system onto any beginners of the code called MARC/MENTAT has been investigated. Through the simulation with the prototype training support system, an evaluation model as the synthetic achievement test for any training scenario was shown with the degree vector. Observing the reusability of training programs, the compression rate of iterated common operations was estimated for the prototype training support system.

  5. SCENARIO OF AN ACCIDENT OF SOIL DAMS IN CASE OF WATER SPILL OVER A DAM CREST BY USING FAULT TREE ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kuznetsov Dmitriy Viktorovich

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The scenario of a hydrodynamic accident of water flow over a crest of a soil dam is considered by the method of fault tree analysis, for which the basic reasons and controlled diagnostic indicators of an accident have been defined. Logical operators “AND”/”OR” were used for creation of a sequence of logically connected events, leading to an undesired event in the scenario of accident. The scenario of the accident was plotted in case of three basic reasons - an excessive settling of a dam crest, an excess flood, an inoperable spillway, taking into account the sequence of the events’ development and with observance of the necessary conditions leading to an accident. “Technical” reasons were observed in the present scenario, force majeure events were not considered. The provided scenario of the accident consists of two branches of events’ development: the left one that depends on an upstream level, and the right one that depends on settling of a dam crest. In each of the considered events an accident “the water spill over a crest of a soil dam” is possible only in case of execution of two different conditions at the same time, i.e. in case of an appropriate upstream level and the appropriate mark of a crest of a soil dam. The conditions of the accident are defined by diagnostic indices - the upstream level and settling of a dam crest, which at the same time are safety criteria of the hydraulic structure for soil dams. They allow defining the technical condition of the construction. Four possible technical conditions are suggested for the definition of technical statuses - normative, operable, limited operable, abnormal. Criteria of safety are the boundaries of the state: for loading and impact - it is the upstream level, for geometrical compliance of the construction - it is a dam crest mark.

  6. Statistical analysis and ANN modeling for predicting hydrological extremes under climate change scenarios: the example of a small Mediterranean agro-watershed.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kourgialas, Nektarios N; Dokou, Zoi; Karatzas, George P

    2015-05-01

    The purpose of this study was to create a modeling management tool for the simulation of extreme flow events under current and future climatic conditions. This tool is a combination of different components and can be applied in complex hydrogeological river basins, where frequent flood and drought phenomena occur. The first component is the statistical analysis of the available hydro-meteorological data. Specifically, principal components analysis was performed in order to quantify the importance of the hydro-meteorological parameters that affect the generation of extreme events. The second component is a prediction-forecasting artificial neural network (ANN) model that simulates, accurately and efficiently, river flow on an hourly basis. This model is based on a methodology that attempts to resolve a very difficult problem related to the accurate estimation of extreme flows. For this purpose, the available measurements (5 years of hourly data) were divided in two subsets: one for the dry and one for the wet periods of the hydrological year. This way, two ANNs were created, trained, tested and validated for a complex Mediterranean river basin in Crete, Greece. As part of the second management component a statistical downscaling tool was used for the creation of meteorological data according to the higher and lower emission climate change scenarios A2 and B1. These data are used as input in the ANN for the forecasting of river flow for the next two decades. The final component is the application of a meteorological index on the measured and forecasted precipitation and flow data, in order to assess the severity and duration of extreme events.

  7. Scenario-based climate change modelling for a regional permafrost probability model of the southern Yukon and northern British Columbia, Canada

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. P. Bonnaventure

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Scenario-based climate change modelling for equilibrium conditions was applied to a Regional Model of permafrost probability for the southern Yukon and northwestern British Columbia. Under a −1 K cooling scenario, permafrost area expands from 58% (present day of the 490 000 km2 to 76%, whereas warming scenarios of +1 K, +2 K and +5 K decrease the terrain underlain by permafrost to 38%, 24% and 9% respectively. The morphology of permafrost gain/loss under these scenarios is controlled by the Surface Lapse Rate (SLR, which varies across the region below and above treeline. The SLR is an air temperature elevation gradient that that is noticeably different across the study region. As a result of this attribute three distinct patterns of loss morphology can be identified. Areas that are more maritime exhibit SLRs characteristically similar above and below treeline resulting in low probabilities of permafrost in valley bottoms. Consequently, a loss front moves to upper elevations when warming scenarios are applied (Simple Unidirectional Spatial Loss. Areas where SLRs are gentle below treeline (but normal/negative and normal above treeline show lower permafrost probabilities with a loss front moving up mountain according to two separate SLRs (Complex Unidirectional Spatial Loss. Finally areas that display high continentally exhibit Bidirectional Spatial Loss where the loss front of lower permafrost probabilities moves up mountain above treeline and down mountain below treeline. Areas that are most affected by permafrost loss are zones with SLRs close to 0 K km−1 where permafrost is extensive, whereas the least susceptible areas to changes in MAAT are above treeline and are highly elevation dependent.

  8. Assessment of future scenarios for wind erosion sensitivity changes based on ALADIN and REMO regional climate model simulation data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mezősi Gábor

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available The changes in rate and pattern of wind erosion sensitivity due to climate change were investigated for 2021–2050 and 2071–2100 compared to the reference period (1961–1990 in Hungary. The sensitivities of the main influencing factors (soil texture, vegetation cover and climate factor were evaluated by fuzzy method and a combined wind erosion sensitivity map was compiled. The climate factor, as the driving factor of the changes, was assessed based on observed data for the reference period, while REMO and ALADIN regional climate model simulation data for the future periods. The changes in wind erosion sensitivity were evaluated on potentially affected agricultural land use types, and hot spot areas were allocated. Based on the results, 5–6% of the total agricultural areas were high sensitive areas in the reference period. In the 21st century slight or moderate changes of wind erosion sensitivity can be expected, and mostly ‘pastures’, ‘complex cultivation patterns’, and ‘land principally occupied by agriculture with significant areas of natural vegetation’ are affected. The applied combination of multi-indicator approach and fuzzy analysis provides novelty in the field of land sensitivity assessment. The method is suitable for regional scale analysis of wind erosion sensitivity changes and supports regional planning by allocating priority areas where changes in agro-technics or land use have to be considered.

  9. Assessment of future scenarios for wind erosion sensitivity changes based on ALADIN and REMO regional climate model simulation data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mezősi, Gábor; Blanka, Viktória; Bata, Teodóra; Ladányi, Zsuzsanna; Kemény, Gábor; Meyer, Burghard C.

    2016-07-01

    The changes in rate and pattern of wind erosion sensitivity due to climate change were investigated for 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 compared to the reference period (1961-1990) in Hungary. The sensitivities of the main influencing factors (soil texture, vegetation cover and climate factor) were evaluated by fuzzy method and a combined wind erosion sensitivity map was compiled. The climate factor, as the driving factor of the changes, was assessed based on observed data for the reference period, while REMO and ALADIN regional climate model simulation data for the future periods. The changes in wind erosion sensitivity were evaluated on potentially affected agricultural land use types, and hot spot areas were allocated. Based on the results, 5-6% of the total agricultural areas were high sensitive areas in the reference period. In the 21st century slight or moderate changes of wind erosion sensitivity can be expected, and mostly `pastures', `complex cultivation patterns', and `land principally occupied by agriculture with significant areas of natural vegetation' are affected. The applied combination of multi-indicator approach and fuzzy analysis provides novelty in the field of land sensitivity assessment. The method is suitable for regional scale analysis of wind erosion sensitivity changes and supports regional planning by allocating priority areas where changes in agro-technics or land use have to be considered.

  10. Mitigation scenario analysis: modelling the impacts of changes in agricultural management practices on surface water quality at the catchment scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Sam; He, Yi; Hiscock, Kevin

    2014-05-01

    ) within the program SWAT-CUP (SWAT Calibration and Uncertainty Programs). Model performance is assessed against a variety of statistical measures including the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSE) and percentage bias (PBIAS). Various mitigation scenarios are modelled within the catchment, including changes in fertiliser application rates and timing and the introduction of different tillage techniques and cover-crop regimes. The effects of the applied measures on water quality are examined and recommendations made on which measures have the greatest potential to be applied within the catchment to improve water quality. This study reports the findings of that analysis and presents techniques by which diffuse agricultural pollution can be reduced within catchments through the implementation of multiple on-farm measures. The methodology presented has the potential to be applied within other catchments, allowing tailored mitigation strategies to be developed. Ultimately, this research provides 'tested' mitigation options that can be applied within the Wensum and similar catchments to improve water quality and to ensure that certain obligatory water quality standards are achieved.

  11. Using Comprehensive Science-based Disaster Scenarios to Support Seismic Safety Policy: A Case Study in Los Angeles, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, L.

    2014-12-01

    In 2014, the USGS entered a technical assistance agreement with the City of Los Angeles to apply the results of the 2008 ShakeOut Scenario of a M7.8 earthquake on the southern San Andreas fault to develop a comprehensive plan to increase the seismic resilience of the City. The results of this project are to be submitted to the Mayor of Los Angeles at the Great ShakeOut on October 16, 2014. The ShakeOut scenario detailed how the expected cascade of failures in a big earthquake could lead to significant delays in disaster recovery that could create financial losses that greatly exceed the direct losses in the event. The goal of the seismic resilience plan is to: protect the lives of residents during earthquakes improve the capacity of the City to respond to the earthquake prepare the City to recover quickly after the earthquake so as to protect the economy of the City and all of southern California To accomplish these goals, the project addresses three areas of seismic vulnerability that were identified in the original ShakeOut Scenario: Pre-1980 buildings that present an unacceptable risk to the lives of residents, including "non-ductile reinforced concrete," and "soft-first-story" buildings Water system infrastructure (including impact on firefighting capability) Communications infrastructure The critical science needed to support policy decisions is to understand the probable consequences to the regional long-term economy caused by decisions to undertake (or not) different levels of mitigation. The arguments against mitigation are the immediate financial costs, so a better understanding of the eventual benefit is required. However, the direct savings rarely justify the mitigation costs, so the arguments in favor of mitigation are driven by the potential for cascading failures and the potential to trigger the type of long term reduction in population and economic activity that has occurred in New Orleans since Hurricane Katrina.

  12. California's electricity system of the future scenario analysis in support of public-interest transmission system R&D planning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eto, Joseph; Stovall, John P.

    2003-04-01

    The California Energy Commission directed the Consortium for Electric Reliability Technology Solutions to analyze possible future scenarios for the California electricity system and assess transmission research and development (R&D) needs, with special emphasis on prioritizing public-interest R&D needs, using criteria developed by the Energy Commission. The scenarios analyzed in this report are not predictions, nor do they express policy preferences of the project participants or the Energy Commission. The public-interest R&D needs that are identified as a result of the analysis are one input that will be considered by the Energy Commission's Public Interest Energy Research staff in preparing a transmission R&D plan.

  13. Costs involved in the expansion of renewable energies. A meta-analysis of scenarios; Kosten des Ausbaus erneuerbarer Energien. Eine Metaanalyse von Szenarien

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pahle, Michael; Knopf, Brigitte; Tietjen, Oliver; Schmid, Eva [Potsdam-Institut fuer Klimafolgenforschung e.V., Potsdam (Germany)

    2012-09-15

    This study investigates current scenarios for a long-term transformation of the energy system towards high shares of renewable energy sources (RES) with a focus the associated costs. The scenarios include different regional scopes (Germany, Europe, and World) and were selected according to the following criteria: a minimum share of 80% RES electricity production in the power sector in 2050 and relevance in the public debate. Total transformation costs consist of a number of components, and scenarios are selective in terms of covered components as well as applied methodologies. For that reason total transformation costs are not comparable across scenarios. This can only be done for specific investment costs of RES technologies, which all scenarios rely on and treat in a consistent manner. Moreover, it can be assumed that specific investment costs are an essential driver of total transition costs. The essential mechanism for the development of future specific investment costs is the ''learning'' inherent to RES technologies. It is most widely used in the form of learning-by-doing, which assumes that specific investment costs decrease with increasing cumulated installed capacity. In fact, all investigated scenarios take account of learning-by-doing, by which the costs of all technologies are reduced until 2050. The largest reductions occur for solar energy (PV), which has abundant worldwide potential and a still relatively low degree of technological maturity. In contrast, the smallest reductions occur for wind energy (onshore), which is already mature and where expected technological progress is thus limited. Regarding capacity deployment, another relevant factor is the economic potential available in the respective region. They give rise to wind energy as the major technology in Germany, whereas solar energy dominates on the global level. For Europe the situation is more ambiguous, but solar energy is always an important option in case imports

  14. Costs involved in the expansion of renewable energies. A meta-analysis of scenarios; Kosten des Ausbaus erneuerbarer Energien. Eine Metaanalyse von Szenarien

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pahle, Michael; Knopf, Brigitte; Tietjen, Oliver; Schmid, Eva [Potsdam-Institut fuer Klimafolgenforschung e.V., Potsdam (Germany)

    2012-09-15

    This study investigates current scenarios for a long-term transformation of the energy system towards high shares of renewable energy sources (RES) with a focus the associated costs. The scenarios include different regional scopes (Germany, Europe, and World) and were selected according to the following criteria: a minimum share of 80% RES electricity production in the power sector in 2050 and relevance in the public debate. Total transformation costs consist of a number of components, and scenarios are selective in terms of covered components as well as applied methodologies. For that reason total transformation costs are not comparable across scenarios. This can only be done for specific investment costs of RES technologies, which all scenarios rely on and treat in a consistent manner. Moreover, it can be assumed that specific investment costs are an essential driver of total transition costs. The essential mechanism for the development of future specific investment costs is the ''learning'' inherent to RES technologies. It is most widely used in the form of learning-by-doing, which assumes that specific investment costs decrease with increasing cumulated installed capacity. In fact, all investigated scenarios take account of learning-by-doing, by which the costs of all technologies are reduced until 2050. The largest reductions occur for solar energy (PV), which has abundant worldwide potential and a still relatively low degree of technological maturity. In contrast, the smallest reductions occur for wind energy (onshore), which is already mature and where expected technological progress is thus limited. Regarding capacity deployment, another relevant factor is the economic potential available in the respective region. They give rise to wind energy as the major technology in Germany, whereas solar energy dominates on the global level. For Europe the situation is more ambiguous, but solar energy is always an important option in case imports

  15. Scenario Analysis on Global Hydropower Development Paths and Their Contribution to GHG Mitigation Utilizing a Dynamic CGE Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qian, Z.; Hanasaki, N.; Fujimori, S.; Masaki, Y.; Hijioka, Y.

    2015-12-01

    Currently, hydropower accounts for 16% of the worldwide electricity power supply and 86% of the total renewable electricity energy source due to its low cost, low greenhouse gas (GHG) emission, and relatively high reliability. It is well known that the global hydropower has not yet been fully developed, but the future paths of development and corresponding contribution to GHG mitigation in each region combined with socioeconomic activities are less known. Here we investigated following three questions. How much will hydropower generation increase in the future? Will hydropower generation reach the economically exploitable capability (EEC)? If this will be the case, when and where will it occur? How much GHG emission will be reduced by adding new hydropower? In order to address these questions, we used the AIM/CGE model, a dynamic computable general equilibrium model to quantify the global hydropower development paths and corresponding GHG mitigation contribution for 17 regions in the world associated with a socio-economic scenario termed SSP2. We compared two scenarios with different assumptions on EEC. One is BAU which takes EEC from the report of "World Energy Resources", the other is FIX_BAU which fix EEC at the current hydropower generation amount throughout the research period (2005-2100) or no additional installation of hydropower plants. The comparison between two scenarios indicated that promoting hydropower development contributed to GHG emission reduction globally but the magnitude varied by region. For example we found that in North Africa, hydropower development grew fast because of the rapid economic development, but it reached EEC as soon as in 2040 because of limitation in EEC due to its climatic and geographical conditions. Conversely, in Brazil, it grew steadily and did not reach its abundant EEC. Consequently, GHG mitigation contribution of North Africa is far less than Brazil. This research provides important information for policy makers to

  16. Assessing global fossil fuel availability in a scenario framework

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bauer, Nico; Hilaire, Jerome; Brecha, Robert J.; Edmonds, James A.; Jiang, Kejun; Kriegler, Elmar; Rogner, Hans-Holger; Sferra, Fabio

    2016-06-01

    This study assesses global, long-term economic availability of coal, oil and gas within the Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP) scenario framework considering alternative assumptions as to highly uncertain future developments of technology, policy and the economy. Diverse sets of trajectories are formulated varying the challenges to mitigation and adaptation of climate change. The potential CO2 emissions from fossil fuels make it a crucial element subject to deep uncertainties. The analysis is based on a well-established data set of cost-quantity combinations that assumes favorable techno-economic developments, but ignores additional constraints on the extraction sector. This study significantly extends that analysis to include alternative assumptions for the fossil fuel sector consistent with the SSP scenario families and applies these filters to the original data set, thus resulting in alternative cumulative fossil fuel availability curves. In a Middle-of-the-Road scenario, low cost fossil fuels embody carbon consistent with a RCP6.0 emission profile, if all the CO2 were emitted freely during the 21st century. In scenarios with high challenges to mitigation, the assumed embodied carbon in low-cost fossil fuels can trigger a RCP8.5 scenario; low mitigation challenges scenarios are still consistent with a RCP4.5 scenario.

  17. Scenario-based modeling for multiple allocation hub location problem under disruption risk: multiple cuts Benders decomposition approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yahyaei, Mohsen; Bashiri, Mahdi

    2017-03-01

    The hub location problem arises in a variety of domains such as transportation and telecommunication systems. In many real-world situations, hub facilities are subject to disruption. This paper deals with the multiple allocation hub location problem in the presence of facilities failure. To model the problem, a two-stage stochastic formulation is developed. In the proposed model, the number of scenarios grows exponentially with the number of facilities. To alleviate this issue, two approaches are applied simultaneously. The first approach is to apply sample average approximation to approximate the two stochastic problem via sampling. Then, by applying the multiple cuts Benders decomposition approach, computational performance is enhanced. Numerical studies show the effective performance of the SAA in terms of optimality gap for small problem instances with numerous scenarios. Moreover, performance of multi-cut Benders decomposition is assessed through comparison with the classic version and the computational results reveal the superiority of the multi-cut approach regarding the computational time and number of iterations.

  18. Development of the scenario-based training system to reduce hazards and prevent accidents during decommissioning of nuclear facilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jeong, KwanSeong; Choi, Jong-Won; Moon, JeiKwon; Choi, ByungSeon; Hyun, Dongjun; Lee, Jonghwan; Kim, IkJune; Kim, GeunHo; Kang, ShinYoung [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-10-15

    Decommissioning of nuclear facilities has to be accomplished by assuring the safety of workers. Decommissioning workers need familiarization with working environments because working environment is under high radioactivity and work difficulty during decommissioning of nuclear facilities. On-the-job training of decommissioning works could effectively train decommissioning workers but this training approach could consume much costs and poor modifications of scenarios. The efficiency of virtual training system could be much better than that of physical training system. This paper was intended to develop the training system to prevent accidents for decommissioning of nuclear facilities. The requirements for the training system were drawn. The data management modules for the training system were designed. The training system of decommissioning workers was developed on the basis of virtual reality which is flexibly modified. The visualization and measurement in the training system were real-time done according as changes of the decommissioning scenario. It can be concluded that this training system enables the subject to improve his familiarization about working environments and to prevent accidents during decommissioning of nuclear facilities. In the end, the safety during decommissioning of nuclear facilities will be guaranteed under the principle of ALARA.

  19. Scenario-based modelling of mass transfer mechanisms at a petroleum contaminated field site-numerical implications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vasudevan, M; Nambi, Indumathi M; Suresh Kumar, G

    2016-06-15

    Knowledge about distribution of dissolved plumes and their influencing factors is essential for risk assessment and remediation of light non-aqueous phase liquid contamination in groundwater. Present study deals with the applicability of numerical model for simulating various hydro-geological scenarios considering non-uniform source distribution at a petroleum contaminated site in Chennai, India. The complexity associated with the hydrogeology of the site has limited scope for on-site quantification of petroleum pipeline spillage. The change in fuel composition under mass-transfer limited conditions was predicted by simultaneously comparing deviations in aqueous concentrations and activity coefficients (between Raoult's law and analytical approaches). The effects of source migration and weathering on the dissolution of major soluble fractions of petroleum fuel were also studied in relation to the apparent change in their activity coefficients and molar fractions. The model results were compared with field observations and found that field conditions were favourable for biodegradation, especially for the aromatic fraction (benzene and toluene (nearly 95% removal), polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (up to 65% removal) and xylene (nearly 45% removal). The results help to differentiate the effect of compositional non-ideality from rate-limited dissolution towards tailing of less soluble compounds (alkanes and trimethylbenzene). Although the effect of non-ideality decreased with distance from the source, the assumption of spatially varying residual saturation could effectively illustrate post-spill scenario by estimating the consequent decrease in mass transfer rate.

  20. Do you agree with the doctor's decision to continue treatment?: A scenario-based study of hospital nurses in Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francesca Ingravallo

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: A lack of social consensus on the duty to comply with a patient's request to forgo treatment was reported in Italy, but little is known about the nurses' attitudes regarding this issue. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Questionnaire including two clinical scenarios regarding doctor's decision to not comply with a competent patient's request to forgo treatment was administered to all nurses (n = 487 of an Italian medium-sized hospital. RESULTS: Eighty-five percent of nurses completed the study. Although 83% of participants supported a general right to self-determination, around 40% of them agreed with the doctor's decision in both scenarios. The multivariate analyses adjusted for gender, age, length of professional experience, and care setting showed that the agreement with the doctor's decision was significantly associated with nurses' personal background beliefs about self-determination and quality of life. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS: Many nurses have difficulty in accepting a patient's request to forgo treatment. Increasing ethical reflection and discussion at both educational and professional level, and introducing ethical consultation services would be essential to develop a consistent approach to end-of-life decisions in Italian hospitals.

  1. Exposure scenarios for workers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marquart, H.; Northage, C.; Money, C.

    2007-01-01

    The new European chemicals legislation REACH (Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation and restriction of Chemicals) requires the development of Exposure Scenarios describing the conditions and risk management measures needed for the safe use of chemicals. Such Exposure Scenarios should integrate con

  2. Numerical Analysis of the Transient Behaviour of a Variable Speed Pump-Turbine during a Pumping Power Reduction Scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giorgio Pavesi

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available To achieve the carbon free electricity generation target for 2050, the penetration of renewable energy sources should further increase. To address the impacts of their unpredictable and intermittent characteristics on the future electricity grid, Pumped Hydro Energy Storage (PHES plants should enhance their regulation capability by extending their continuous operating range far beyond the optimal normal working range. However, for the time being, the regulation capability of the new generation of PHES, equipped with reversible pump-turbines due to their cost-effectiveness, is limited at part load by instability problems. The aim of this paper is to analyse, during a pumping power reduction scenario, the onset and development of unsteady phenomena leading to unstable behaviour. A 3D transient numerical simulation was carried out on the first stage of a variable-speed two-stage pump-turbine from full load to the unstable operating zone by progressively reducing the speed from 100% to 88% rpm corresponding to a power reduction from full load to about 60% with a ramp rate of 1.5% per s. Two three-dimensional unsteady flow structures affecting the return channel and the wicket gates at the end of the first stage were identified and their evolution in the power regulation scenario was fluid-dynamically and spectrally characterized to determine the fluid-dynamical conditions causing the head drop in the hump zone.

  3. On Guangxi's CO_2 Abatement by Using Catastrophe Progression Method and Scenario Analysis Method%基于突变级数法与情景分析法的广西CO_2减排研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    蒙瑞海

    2012-01-01

    Based on related indices from the year 1978 to 2009,using catastrophe progression method,Guangxi's CO2 emissions are analyzed and evaluated.By using scenario analysis method,the impact of different scenarios on Guangxi's CO2 emissions is analyzed,and Guangxi's CO2 emissions of year 2015 are forecasted under different scenarios,in order to make reasonable suggestions for Guangxi's CO2 abatement.%依据广西1978—2009年CO2排放的相关指标数据,采用突变级数法对广西1978—2009年CO2减排作出了相关分析评价.在此基础上,运用情景分析法预测不同情景下广西2015年CO2排放,分析不同情景选择对广西CO2排放的影响,以期为广西开展CO2减排提出合理化建议.

  4. Future waste treatment and energy systems – examples of joint scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Münster, Marie; Finnveden, G.; Wenzel, H.

    2013-01-01

    , recommendations are made for an approach concerning development of scenarios in projects dealing with both waste management and energy issues. Recommendations are given to develop and use overall scenarios for the project and leave room for sub-scenarios in parts of the project. Combining different types......Development and use of scenarios for large interdisciplinary projects is a complicated task. This article provides practical examples of how it has been carried out in two projects addressing waste management and energy issues respectively. Based on experiences from the two projects...... of scenarios is recommended, too, in order to adapt to the methods and tools of different disciplines, such as developing predictive scenarios with general equilibrium tools and analysing explorative scenarios with energy system analysis tools. Furthermore, as marginals identified in differing future...

  5. Role Assessment of GIS Analysis and its Reliability while Ranking Urban Sustainability Using Scenarios Specific to Regional Climate, Community and Culture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salmi, H. Al; Abdulmuttalib, H. M.

    2012-07-01

    Urban Sustainability expresses the level of conservation of a city while living a town or consuming its urban resources, but the measurement of urban sustainability depends on what are considered important indicators of conservation besides the permitted levels of consumption in accordance with adopted criteria. This criterion should have common factors that are shared for all the members tested or cities to be evaluated as in this particular case for Abu Dhabi, but also have specific factors that are related to the geographic place, community and culture, that is the measures of urban sustainability specific to a middle east climate, community and culture where GIS Vector and Raster analysis have a role or add a value in urban sustainability measurements or grading are considered herein. Scenarios were tested using various GIS data types to replicate urban history (ten years period), current status and expected future of Abu Dhabi City setting factors to climate, community needs and culture. The useful Vector or Raster GIS data sets that are related to every scenario where selected and analysed in the sense of how and how much it can benefit the urban sustainability ranking in quantity and quality tests, this besides assessing the suitable data nature, type and format, the important topology rules to be considered, the useful attributes to be added, the relationships which should be maintained between data types of a geo- database, and specify its usage in a specific scenario test, then setting weights to