WorldWideScience

Sample records for based scenario analysis

  1. A scenario-based procedure for seismic risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A new methodology for seismic risk analysis based on probabilistic interpretation of deterministic or scenario-based hazard analysis, in full compliance with the likelihood principle and therefore meeting the requirements of modern risk analysis, has been developed. The proposed methodology can easily be adjusted to deliver its output in a format required for safety analysts and civil engineers. The scenario-based approach allows the incorporation of all available information collected in a geological, seismotectonic and geotechnical database of the site of interest as well as advanced physical modelling techniques to provide a reliable and robust deterministic design basis for civil infrastructures. The robustness of this approach is of special importance for critical infrastructures. At the same time a scenario-based seismic hazard analysis allows the development of the required input for probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) as required by safety analysts and insurance companies. The scenario-based approach removes the ambiguity in the results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) which relies on the projections of Gutenberg-Richter (G-R) equation. The problems in the validity of G-R projections, because of incomplete to total absence of data for making the projections, are still unresolved. Consequently, the information from G-R must not be used in decisions for design of critical structures or critical elements in a structure. The scenario-based methodology is strictly based on observable facts and data and complemented by physical modelling techniques, which can be submitted to a formalised validation process. By means of sensitivity analysis, knowledge gaps related to lack of data can be dealt with easily, due to the limited amount of scenarios to be investigated. The proposed seismic risk analysis can be used with confidence for planning, insurance and engineering applications. (author)

  2. Overview description of the base scenario derived from FEP analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    , subsequent evolution and the processes affecting radionuclide transport for the groundwater and gas pathways. This report uses the conceptual models developed from the FEP analysis to present a description of the base scenario, in terms of the processes to be represented in detailed models. This report does not present an assessment of the base scenario, but rather seeks to provide a summary of those features, events and processes that should be represented, at an appropriate level of detail, within numerical models. The requirements for the development of appropriate models for representing the base scenario are described in an underlying report within the model development document suite. (author)

  3. Scenario analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Li, L.; Braat, L.C.; Lei, G.; Arets, E.J.M.M.; Liu, J.; Jiang, L.; Fan, Z.; Liu, W.; He, H.; Sun, X.

    2014-01-01

    This chapter presents the results of the scenario analysis of China’s ecosystems focusing on forest, grassland, and wetland ecosystems. The analysis was undertaken using Conversion of Land Use Change and its Effects (CLUE) modeling and an ecosystem service matrix (as explained below) complemented by

  4. European Climate - Energy Security Nexus. A model based scenario analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In this research, we have provided an overview of the climate-security nexus in the European sector through a model based scenario analysis with POLES model. The analysis underline that under stringent climate policies, Europe take advantage of a double dividend in its capacity to develop a new cleaner energy model and in lower vulnerability to potential shocks on the international energy markets. (authors)

  5. A NOVEL METHOD FOR MULTISTAGE SCENARIO GENERATION BASED ON CLUSTER ANALYSIS

    OpenAIRE

    XIAODONG JI; XIUJUAN ZHAO; XIULI CHAO

    2006-01-01

    Based on cluster analysis, a novel method is introduced in this paper to generate multistage scenarios. A linear programming model is proposed to exclude the arbitrage opportunity by appending a scenario to the generated scenario set. By means of a cited stochastic linear goal programming portfolio model, a case is given to exhibit the virtues of this scenario generation approach.

  6. Graph-Based Comparisons of Scenarios in Intelligence Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chin, George; Kuchar, Olga A.; Whitney, Paul D.; Powers, Mary E.; Johnson, Katherine E.

    2004-10-13

    In the role of detecting and preventing strategic surprise, intelligence analysts rely heavily on history as they refer to past cases and events to find similarities and distinctions to a current situation or threat. Analysts’ ability to identify similar cases and events, however, is very limited because the intelligence data available for searching are largely disconnected and limited in context. As a result, analysts searching intelligence data often resort to searching by keyword or timestamp. To make better use of intelligence data, analysts should not only be able to construct hypotheses of a current situation or threat but also reconstruct the full context of past events such that those events may then be effectively compared to the current situation and hypotheses. In constructing the context of a situation, case, or hypothesis, analysts decipher patterns and relationships among many different kinds and sources of information. Analysts identify these patterns and relationships through different kinds of analyses. For instance, analysts may conduct link analysis to examine different kinds of relationships, geographical analysis to look at spatial positioning and grouping, timeline analysis to lay out chronological events, and visual analysis to identify clusters of similar information. What these different kinds of analyses provide are analytical frameworks or models for organizing intelligence data along key properties. Unfortunately, these higher-level analytical models are transient: they disappear when their associated analysis tools stop executing. Consequently, analysts cannot easily associate their analyses with their intelligence data in a way that facilitates the integration of different analyses into a larger picture or the comparison of analytical models to other cases. On the Scenario and Knowledge Framework for Analytical Modelling (SKFAM) project at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, we are researching and prototyping a framework that

  7. Hybrid Scenario Based Performance Analysis of DSDV and DSSR

    CERN Document Server

    Majumder, Koushik; 10.5121/ijcsit.2010.2305

    2010-01-01

    The area of mobile ad hoc networking has received considerable attention of the research community in recent years. These networks have gained immense popularity primarily due to their infrastructure-less mode of operation which makes them a suitable candidate for deployment in emergency scenarios like relief operation, battlefield etc., where either the pre-existing infrastructure is totally damaged or it is not possible to establish a new infrastructure quickly. However, MANETs are constrained due to the limited transmission range of the mobile nodes which reduces the total coverage area. Sometimes the infrastructure-less ad hoc network may be combined with a fixed network to form a hybrid network which can cover a wider area with the advantage of having less fixed infrastructure. In such a combined network, for transferring data, we need base stations which act as gateways between the wired and wireless domains. Due to the hybrid nature of these networks, routing is considered a challenging task. Several r...

  8. Security Analysis of Selected AMI Failure Scenarios Using Agent Based Game Theoretic Simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Abercrombie, Robert K [ORNL; Schlicher, Bob G [ORNL; Sheldon, Frederick T [ORNL

    2014-01-01

    Information security analysis can be performed using game theory implemented in dynamic Agent Based Game Theoretic (ABGT) simulations. Such simulations can be verified with the results from game theory analysis and further used to explore larger scale, real world scenarios involving multiple attackers, defenders, and information assets. We concentrated our analysis on the Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI) functional domain which the National Electric Sector Cyber security Organization Resource (NESCOR) working group has currently documented 29 failure scenarios. The strategy for the game was developed by analyzing five electric sector representative failure scenarios contained in the AMI functional domain. From these five selected scenarios, we characterize them into three specific threat categories affecting confidentiality, integrity and availability (CIA). The analysis using our ABGT simulation demonstrates how to model the AMI functional domain using a set of rationalized game theoretic rules decomposed from the failure scenarios in terms of how those scenarios might impact the AMI network with respect to CIA.

  9. Formal analysis of executions of organizational scenarios based on process-oriented models

    OpenAIRE

    Popova, V.; Sharpanskykh, A.

    2007-01-01

    This paper presents various formal techniques for analysis of executions of organizational scenarios based on process-oriented models of organizations. Process-oriented models describe (prescribe) ordering and timing relations on organizational processes, modes of use of resources, allocations of actors to processes etc. The actual execution may diverge from scenarios (pre)defined by a model. A part of techniques proposed in this paper is dedicated to establishing the correspondence between a...

  10. Strategic bidding in electricity markets: An agent-based simulator with game theory for scenario analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pinto, Tiago; Praca, Isabel; Morais, Hugo;

    2013-01-01

    . MASCEM (Multi-Agent System for Competitive Electricity Markets) is a multi-agent electricity market simulator that models market players and simulates their operation in the market. The scenario analysis algorithm has been tested within MASCEM and our experimental findings with a case study based on real...... the behavior that better fits their objectives. This model includes forecasts of competitor players’ actions, to build models of their behavior, in order to define the most probable expected scenarios. Once the scenarios are defined, game theory is applied to support the choice of the ac-tion to be performed...

  11. Measurement based scenario analysis of short-range distribution system planning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chen, Peiyuan; Bak-Jensen, Birgitte; Chen, Zhe; Sørensen, Stefan

    feasible scenarios are performed based on a local distribution system at Støvring in Denmark. Simulation results provide more accurate and insightful information for the decision-maker when using the probabilistic analysis than using the worst-case analysis, so that a better planning can be achieved....

  12. Scenario-based approach to risk analysis in support of cyber security

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The US infrastructure is continually challenged by hostile nation states and others who would do us harm. Cyber vulnerabilities and weaknesses are potential targets and are the result of years of construction and technological improvement in a world less concerned with security than is currently the case. As a result, cyber attack presents a class of challenges for which we are just beginning to prepare. What has been done in the nuclear, chemical and energy sectors as a means of anticipating and preparing for randomly occurring accidents and off-normal events is to develop scenarios as a means by which to prioritize and quantify risk and to take action. However, the number of scenarios risk analysts can develop is almost limitless. How do we ascertain which scenario has the greatest merit? One of the more important contributions of probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) has been to quantify the initiating event probability associated with various classes of accidents; and to quantify the occurrence of various conditions, i.e., end-states, as a function of these important accident sequences. Typically, various classes of conditions are represented by scenarios and are quantified in terms of cut sets and binned into end states. For example, the nuclear industry has a well-defined set of initiating events that are studied in assessing risk. The maturation of risk analysis for cyber security from accounting for barriers or looking at conditions statically to one of ascertaining the probability associated with certain events is, in part, dependent upon the adoption of a scenario-based approach. For example, scenarios take into account threats to personnel and public safety; economic damage, and compromises to major operational and safety functions. Scenarios reflect system, equipment, and component configurations as well as key human-system interactions related to event detection, diagnosis, mitigation and restoration of systems. As part of a cyber attack directed toward

  13. Scenario-Based Stochastic Programs: Strategies for Deleting Scenarios

    OpenAIRE

    Dupacova, J.

    1995-01-01

    The proposed strategies for deleting scenarios are based on postoptimality analysis of the optimal value function with respect to probabilities of the included scenarios. These strategies can be used to reduce the size of the large scenario based problems or of the problems constructed in the course of specific numerical procedures, such as stochastic decomposition or scenario aggregation. A convex nonsmooth optimization problem is replaced by a sequence of line search problems along rec...

  14. Mars base buildup scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Two surface base build-up scenarios are presented in order to help visualize the mission and to serve as a basis for trade studies. In the first scenario, direct manned landings on the Martian surface occur early in the missions and scientific investigation is the main driver and rationale. In the second scenario, early development of an infrastructure to exploite the volatile resources of the Martian moons for economic purposes is emphasized. Scientific exploration of the surface is delayed at first, but once begun develops rapidly aided by the presence of a permanently manned orbital station

  15. Scenario Analysis of the Philippine Energy Market

    OpenAIRE

    Fe Amor Parel Gudmundsson 1975

    2014-01-01

    This research project investigates the Philippine energy market. The main objective is to provide alternative scenarios, based on the propositions which are generated from literature review. Scenario Analysis is used as the primary tool for the analysis using the Delphi method which includes eight panel of experts as participants. Findings of this research concludes three scenarios: Policy Scenario, Sustainability Scenario, and Energy Price Scenario. Political will is important to address th...

  16. Probabilistic scenario earthquakes for Korean site based on seismic hazard analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seismic hazard curves and scenario earthquakes based on Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) are evaluated for a site in Korea. Moreover, dominant seismic sources for the site are identified from the contribution factors of the seismic sources. Furthermore, the seismic hazard curves for eight sites in Korea are evaluated to grasp the regional difference of the seismic hazard, and the more detailed information on seismic hazard for Korean sites are obtained. (authors)

  17. Scenario Analysis of Web Service Composition based on Multi-Criteria Mathematical Goal Programming

    OpenAIRE

    LiYing Cui; Soundar Kumara; Dongwon Lee

    2011-01-01

    This paper addresses the web service composition problem considering multi-criteria regarding quality of services (QoS). Three different scenarios of multi-criteria mathematical programming models are explored under the framework of network based analysis in web service composition. This work takes care of the issues pertaining to inputs and outputs matching of web services and Quality-of-Service (QoS) at the same time. The multi-criteria programming models are explored to select the desirabl...

  18. [Study on strategies of pollution prevention in coastal city of Zhejiang Province based on scenario analysis].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Jin-Ping; Chen, Lü-Jun; Du, Peng-Fei; Qian, Yi

    2013-01-01

    Scenario analysis was used to study the environmental burden in a coastal city of Zhejiang province under different patterns of economic development. The aim of this research is to propose advices on decision making by illustrating how to make emissions reduced by transforming the pattern of economic development in a developed coastal area, which had acquired the level of 70 000 yuan GDP per cap. At first, 18 heavy pollution industries were screened out, by referencing total emissions of chemical oxygen demand, ammonia-nitrogen, sulfur dioxide, and nitrogen oxide. Then, a model of scenario analysis and the back-up calculation program were designed to study the sustainable development of the heavy pollution industries. With 2008 and 2015 as the reference year and the target year respectively, emissions of four pollutants mentioned above in the 18 heavy pollution industries in the city were analyzed under six scenarios. The total emissions of 4 pollutants should be reduced to an expectant degree, which is set as the constraint prerequisite of the scenario analysis. At last, some suggestions for decision-making are put forward, which include maintaining a moderate increase rate of GDP around 7%, strengthening the adjustment of economic structure, controlling the increasing rate of industrial added value of the industries with heavy pollution, optimizing the structure of industries with heavy pollution, decreasing the intensity of waste emission by implementing cleaner production to reduce emission produce at the source, and strengthening regulations on the operation of waste treatment plants to further promote the efficiency of waste treatment. Only by implementing such measures mentioned above, can the total emissions of chemical oxygen demand, ammonia-nitrogen, sulfur dioxide, and nitrogen oxide of the 18 industries with heavy pollution in the city be reduced by a 10%, 10%, 5%, and 15% respectively based on the reference year. PMID:23487960

  19. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of TMI-2 accident scenario using simulation based techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Three Mile Island Unit 2 (TMI-2) accident has been studied extensively, as part of both post-accident technical assessment and follow-up computer code calculations. The models used in computer codes for severe accidents have improved significantly over the years due to better understanding. It was decided to reanalyze the severe accident scenario using current state of the art codes and methodologies. This reanalysis was adopted as a part of the joint standard problem exercise for the Atomic Energy Regulatory Board (AERB) - United States Regulatory Commission (USNRC) bilateral safety meet. The accident scenario was divided into four phases for analysis viz., Phase 1 covers from the accident initiation to the shutdown of the last Reactor Coolant Pumps (RCPs) (0 to 100 min), Phase 2 covers initial fuel heat up and core degradation (100 to 174 min), Phase 3 is the period of recovery of the core water level by operating the reactor coolant pump, and the core reheat that followed (174 to 200 min) and Phase 4 covers refilling of the core by high pressure injection (200 to 300 min). The base case analysis was carried out for all four phases. The majority of the predicted parameters are in good agreement with the observed data. However, some parameters have significant deviations compared to the observed data. These discrepancies have arisen from uncertainties in boundary conditions, such as makeup flow, flow during the RCP 2B transient (Phase 3), models used in the code, the adopted nodalisation schemes, etc. In view of this, uncertainty and sensitivity analyses are carried out using simulation based techniques. The paper deals with uncertainty and sensitivity analyses carried out for the first three phases of the accident scenario.

  20. The Efficacy of Digital Case Scenario versus Paper Case Scenario on Clinical Reasoning in Problem Based Learning: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Zarea Gavgani Vahideh; Hazrati Hakime; Ghojazadeh Mortaza

    2015-01-01

    Introduction: In medical and clinical education, creating critical thinking and promoting clinical reasoning abilities are the highest aims and results of education. The main aim of this study was to assess the efficacy of digital case scenarios versus print/paper case scenarios on clinical reasoning in problem-based learning (PBL). If a study used the multimedia scenario case interventions, video case scenarios and online-guided scenarios as digital case PBL, we would cons...

  1. Scenario-Based Satisficing in Saving : A Theoretical and Experimental Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Güth, Werner; Levati, Maria Vittoria; Ploner, Matteo

    2007-01-01

    Contrary to the models of deterministic life cycle saving, we take it for granted that uncertainty of one's future is the essential problem of saving decisions. However, unlike the stochastic life cycle models, we capture this crucial uncertainty by a non-Bayesian scenario-based satisï¬ cing approach. Decision makers ï¬ rst form aspirations for a few relevant scenarios, and then search for saving plans satisï¬ cing these aspirations. In addition to formally specifying scenario-based satisï¬ c...

  2. Application of State Analysis and Goal-based Operations to a MER Mission Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morris, John Richard; Ingham, Michel D.; Mishkin, Andrew H.; Rasmussen, Robert D.; Starbird, Thomas W.

    2006-01-01

    State Analysis is a model-based systems engineering methodology employing a rigorous discovery process which articulates operations concepts and operability needs as an integrated part of system design. The process produces requirements on system and software design in the form of explicit models which describe the system behavior in terms of state variables and the relationships among them. By applying State Analysis to an actual MER flight mission scenario, this study addresses the specific real world challenges of complex space operations and explores technologies that can be brought to bear on future missions. The paper first describes the tools currently used on a daily basis for MER operations planning and provides an in-depth description of the planning process, in the context of a Martian day's worth of rover engineering activities, resource modeling, flight rules, science observations, and more. It then describes how State Analysis allows for the specification of a corresponding goal-based sequence that accomplishes the same objectives, with several important additional benefits.

  3. A scenario-based modeling approach for emergency evacuation management and risk analysis under multiple uncertainties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Highlights: ► An interval-parameter joint-probabilistic integer programming method is developed. ► It is useful for nuclear emergency management practices under uncertainties. ► It can schedule optimal routes with maximizing evacuees during a finite time. ► Scenario-based analysis enhances robustness in controlling system risk. ► The method will help to improve the capability of disaster responses. -- Abstract: Nuclear emergency evacuation is important to prevent radioactive harms by hazardous materials and to limit the accidents’ consequences; however, uncertainties are involved in the components and processes of such a management system. In the study, an interval-parameter joint-probabilistic integer programming (IJIP) method is developed for emergency evacuation management under uncertainties. Optimization techniques of interval-parameter programming (IPP) and joint-probabilistic constrained (JPC) programming are incorporated into an integer linear programming framework, so that the approach can deal with uncertainties expressed as joint probability and interval values. The IJIP method can schedule the optimal routes to guarantee the maximum population evacuated away from the effected zone during a finite time. Furthermore, it can also facilitate post optimization analysis to enhance robustness in controlling system violation risk imposed on the joint-probabilistic constraints. The developed method has been applied to a case study of nuclear emergency management; meanwhile, a number of scenarios under different system conditions have been analyzed. It is indicated that the solutions are useful for evacuation management practices. The result of the IJIP method can not only help to raise the capability of disaster responses in a systematic manner, but also provide an insight into complex relationships among evacuation planning, resources utilizations, policy requirements and system risks

  4. Scenario Analysis and Path Selection of Low-Carbon Transformation in China Based on a Modified IPAT Model

    OpenAIRE

    Chen, Liang; Yang, Zhifeng; Chen, Bin

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a forecast and analysis of population, economic development, energy consumption and CO2 emissions variation in China in the short- and long-term steps before 2020 with 2007 as the base year. The widely applied IPAT model, which is the basis for calculations, projections, and scenarios of greenhouse gases (GHGs) reformulated as the Kaya equation, is extended to analyze and predict the relations between human activities and the environment. Four scenarios of CO2 emissions ar...

  5. Scenario analysis and path selection of low-carbon transformation in China based on a modified IPAT model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liang Chen

    Full Text Available This paper presents a forecast and analysis of population, economic development, energy consumption and CO2 emissions variation in China in the short- and long-term steps before 2020 with 2007 as the base year. The widely applied IPAT model, which is the basis for calculations, projections, and scenarios of greenhouse gases (GHGs reformulated as the Kaya equation, is extended to analyze and predict the relations between human activities and the environment. Four scenarios of CO2 emissions are used including business as usual (BAU, energy efficiency improvement scenario (EEI, low carbon scenario (LC and enhanced low carbon scenario (ELC. The results show that carbon intensity will be reduced by 40-45% as scheduled and economic growth rate will be 6% in China under LC scenario by 2020. The LC scenario, as the most appropriate and the most feasible scheme for China's low-carbon development in the future, can maximize the harmonious development of economy, society, energy and environmental systems. Assuming China's development follows the LC scenario, the paper further gives four paths of low-carbon transformation in China: technological innovation, industrial structure optimization, energy structure optimization and policy guidance.

  6. Supply Chain Vulnerability Analysis Using Scenario-Based Input-Output Modeling: Application to Port Operations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thekdi, Shital A; Santos, Joost R

    2016-05-01

    Disruptive events such as natural disasters, loss or reduction of resources, work stoppages, and emergent conditions have potential to propagate economic losses across trade networks. In particular, disruptions to the operation of container port activity can be detrimental for international trade and commerce. Risk assessment should anticipate the impact of port operation disruptions with consideration of how priorities change due to uncertain scenarios and guide investments that are effective and feasible for implementation. Priorities for protective measures and continuity of operations planning must consider the economic impact of such disruptions across a variety of scenarios. This article introduces new performance metrics to characterize resiliency in interdependency modeling and also integrates scenario-based methods to measure economic sensitivity to sudden-onset disruptions. The methods will be demonstrated on a U.S. port responsible for handling $36.1 billion of cargo annually. The methods will be useful to port management, private industry supply chain planning, and transportation infrastructure management. PMID:26271771

  7. Application of risk-based multiple criteria decision analysis for selection of the best agricultural scenario for effective watershed management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Javidi Sabbaghian, Reza; Zarghami, Mahdi; Nejadhashemi, A Pouyan; Sharifi, Mohammad Bagher; Herman, Matthew R; Daneshvar, Fariborz

    2016-03-01

    Effective watershed management requires the evaluation of agricultural best management practice (BMP) scenarios which carefully consider the relevant environmental, economic, and social criteria involved. In the Multiple Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) process, scenarios are first evaluated and then ranked to determine the most desirable outcome for the particular watershed. The main challenge of this process is the accurate identification of the best solution for the watershed in question, despite the various risk attitudes presented by the associated decision-makers (DMs). This paper introduces a novel approach for implementation of the MCDM process based on a comparative neutral risk/risk-based decision analysis, which results in the selection of the most desirable scenario for use in the entire watershed. At the sub-basin level, each scenario includes multiple BMPs with scores that have been calculated using the criteria derived from two cases of neutral risk and risk-based decision-making. The simple additive weighting (SAW) operator is applied for use in neutral risk decision-making, while the ordered weighted averaging (OWA) and induced OWA (IOWA) operators are effective for risk-based decision-making. At the watershed level, the BMP scores of the sub-basins are aggregated to calculate each scenarios' combined goodness measurements; the most desirable scenario for the entire watershed is then selected based on the combined goodness measurements. Our final results illustrate the type of operator and risk attitudes needed to satisfy the relevant criteria within the number of sub-basins, and how they ultimately affect the final ranking of the given scenarios. The methodology proposed here has been successfully applied to the Honeyoey Creek-Pine Creek watershed in Michigan, USA to evaluate various BMP scenarios and determine the best solution for both the stakeholders and the overall stream health. PMID:26734840

  8. Scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scenarios provide a framework for exploring future energy perspectives, including a continuation of current dynamics and alternative paths developed on the basis of different assumptions relevant to sustainable energy development. It is important to note that scenarios are neither forecasts nor predictions, but are images of alternative futures based on internally consistent and reproducible sets of assumptions. Thus, scenario outputs and assumptions are inseparable parts of the overall integrated modelling process. This section presents alternative scenarios developed for Cuba for the period 2002-2025. One basic reference (REF) scenario is developed to explore future paths for both energy demand and supply. The optimization of the supply system is further analysed by the development of three alternative scenarios in addition to the REF scenario: a fossil fuels (FOS) scenario that emphasizes the use of fossil fuels; a renewables (REN) scenario that emphasizes intense use of renewables; and a mixed fuels (MIX) scenario that combines assumptions about the use of fossil fuels and renewables. Finally, a sensitivity analysis is performed in which alternative assumptions related to imported crude oil and petroleum products prices are taken into consideration. This section summarizes the methodology, assumptions and resulting characterizations of these alternative scenarios

  9. Automated Analysis of Infinite Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Buchholtz, Mikael

    The security of a network protocol crucially relies on the scenario in which the protocol is deployed. This paper describes syntactic constructs for modelling network scenarios and presents an automated analysis tool, which can guarantee that security properties hold in all of the (infinitely many...

  10. Scenario-based risk analysis of winter snowstorms in the German lowlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    von Wulffen, Anja

    2014-05-01

    conditions. Based on these findings, an exemplary synoptic evolution of a snowstorm leading to representative infrastructure failure cascades is constructed. In a next step, an extrapolation of this obtained scenario to future climate and societal conditions as well as plausible more extreme but not yet observed meteorological conditions is planned in order to obtain a thorough analysis of possible threats to the German food distribution system and a strong foundation for future disaster mitigation planning efforts.

  11. SCENARIO ANALYSIS OF TECHNOLOGY PRODUCTS WITH AN AGENT-BASED SIMULATION AND DATA MINING FRAMEWORK

    OpenAIRE

    AMIT SHINDE; MOEED HAGHNEVIS; Janssen, Marco A.; GEORGE C. RUNGER; MANI JANAKIRAM

    2013-01-01

    A framework is presented to simulate and analyze the effect of multiple business scenarios on the adoption behavior of a group of technology products. Diffusion is viewed as an emergent phenomenon that results from the interaction of consumers. An agent-based model is used in which potential adopters of technology product are allowed to be influenced by their local interactions within the social network. Along with social influence, the effect of product features is important and we ascribe f...

  12. Scenario analysis of energy-based low-carbon development in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Yun; Hao, Fanghua; Meng, Wei; Fu, Jiafeng

    2014-08-01

    China's increasing energy consumption and coal-dominant energy structure have contributed not only to severe environmental pollution, but also to global climate change. This article begins with a brief review of China's primary energy use and associated environmental problems and health risks. To analyze the potential of China's transition to low-carbon development, three scenarios are constructed to simulate energy demand and CO₂ emission trends in China up to 2050 by using the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) model. Simulation results show that with the assumption of an average annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate of 6.45%, total primary energy demand is expected to increase by 63.4%, 48.8% and 12.2% under the Business as Usual (BaU), Carbon Reduction (CR) and Integrated Low Carbon Economy (ILCE) scenarios in 2050 from the 2009 levels. Total energy-related CO₂ emissions will increase from 6.7 billiontons in 2009 to 9.5, 11, 11.6 and 11.2 billiontons; 8.2, 9.2, 9.6 and 9 billiontons; 7.1, 7.4, 7.2 and 6.4 billiontons in 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050 under the BaU, CR and ILCE scenarios, respectively. Total CO₂ emission will drop by 19.6% and 42.9% under the CR and ILCE scenarios in 2050, compared with the BaU scenario. To realize a substantial cut in energy consumption and carbon emissions, China needs to make a long-term low-carbon development strategy targeting further improvement of energy efficiency, optimization of energy structure, deployment of clean coal technology and use of market-based economic instruments like energy/carbon taxation. PMID:25108719

  13. Sustainable Systems Analysis of Production and Transportation Scenarios for Conventional and Bio-based Energy Commodities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doran, E. M.; Golden, J. S.; Nowacek, D. P.

    2013-12-01

    International commerce places unique pressures on the sustainability of water resources and marine environments. System impacts include noise, emissions, and chemical and biological pollutants like introduction of invasive species into key ecosystems. At the same time, maritime trade also enables the sustainability ambition of intragenerational equity in the economy through the global circulation of commodities and manufactured goods, including agricultural, energy and mining resources (UN Trade and Development Board 2013). This paper presents a framework to guide the analysis of the multiple dimensions of the sustainable commerce-ocean nexus. As a demonstration case, we explore the social, economic and environmental aspects of the nexus framework using scenarios for the production and transportation of conventional and bio-based energy commodities. Using coupled LCA and GIS methodologies, we are able to orient the findings spatially for additional insight. Previous work on the sustainable use of marine resources has focused on distinct aspects of the maritime environment. The framework presented here, integrates the anthropogenic use, governance and impacts on the marine and coastal environments with the natural components of the system. A similar framework has been highly effective in progressing the study of land-change science (Turner et al 2007), however modification is required for the unique context of the marine environment. This framework will enable better research integration and planning for sustainability objectives including mitigation and adaptation to climate change, sea level rise, reduced dependence on fossil fuels, protection of critical marine habitat and species, and better management of the ocean as an emerging resource base for the production and transport of commodities and energy across the globe. The framework can also be adapted for vulnerability analysis, resilience studies and to evaluate the trends in production, consumption and

  14. Analysis of scenarios of nuclear power up to 2050 in Japan based on Fukushima Daiichi accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper calculated long-term energy supply-demand outlook up to 2050 in Japan for long-term scenarios of nuclear power based on Fukushima Daiichi accidents, using integrated energy economic model combined with econometric model and MARKAL (MARKet ALlocations) model. If nuclear power was introduced continuously based on the present basic energy plan, the ratio of nuclear power to total generation increased to about 49% compared with 31% in 2005 but decreased to 42 or 16% if the introduction of nuclear power was halted in a long period and then it encouraged increased of coal-fired power plant. As a result, coal consumption increased to about 23 or 90 Mt and CO2 emission increased to about 60 or 250 Mt with no measures of CO2 emission reduction. If CO2 emission in 2050 should be reduced to about 60% of that in 2005, natural gas consumption increased to about 25 or 65 LNG equivalent Mt in case of increase of natural gas fired power plant due to the halt of nuclear power introduction. This case expanded introduction of CO2 capture and storage technology and increased cost necessary for CO2 reduction (marginal CO2 abatement cost). Measures should be more reinforced with combination of fuel conversion, introduction of renewable energy and expansion of CO2 capture and storage technology. (T. Tanaka)

  15. Scenario based analysis of fire escalation in a gas process plant

    OpenAIRE

    Bjørge, Joachim Søreng

    2013-01-01

    This study takes place on a medium sized gas process plant called reference plant. In this thesis several escalation scenarios, as well as gas dispersion, is evaluated through Kameleon KFX and Vessfire. It has previously been conducted similar escalation studies. However, a normal approach to conduct these studies is to use reference values of a uniform property for heat flux both global and peak, and will only record/evaluate if rupture occurs. In this thesis uses every scenario tran...

  16. Scenario-Based Analysis on Water Resources Implication of Coal Power in Western China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiahai Yuan

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Currently, 58% of coal-fired power generation capacity is located in eastern China, where the demand for electricity is strong. Serious air pollution in China, in eastern regions in particular, has compelled the Chinese government to impose a ban on the new construction of pulverized coal power plants in eastern regions. Meanwhile, rapid economic growth is thirsty for electric power supply. As a response, China planned to build large-scale coal power bases in six western provinces, including Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, Shaanxi, Xinjiang, Ningxia and Gansu. In this paper, the water resource implication of the coal power base planning is addressed. We find that, in a business-as-usual (BAU scenario, water consumption for coal power generation in these six provinces will increase from 1130 million m3 in 2012 to 2085 million m3 in 2020, experiencing nearly a double growth. Such a surge will exert great pressure on water supply and lead to serious water crisis in these already water-starved regions. A strong implication is that the Chinese Government must add water resource constraint as a critical point in its overall sustainable development plan, in addition to energy supply and environment protection. An integrated energy-water resource plan with regionalized environmental carrying capacity as constraints should be developed to settle this puzzle. Several measures are proposed to cope with it, including downsizing coal power in western regions, raising the technical threshold of new coal power plants and implementing retrofitting to the inefficient cooling system, and reengineering the generation process to waterless or recycled means.

  17. Policy Choice for Urban Low-carbon transportation in Beijing: Scenario Analysis Based on LEAP model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yu

    2016-04-01

    Beijing is a fast developing megacity with serious traffic problems, such as high energy consumption, high CO2 emission and traffic congestion. The coming 13th Five-Year Plan for Beijing economic and social development will focus on the low-carbon transportation policy to achieve the urban traffic sustainable development. In order to improve the feasibility of urban low-carbon transportation policies, this paper analyzes the future trends of CO2 emissions from transportation of Beijing. Firstly, five policies scenarios are developed according to the coming Beijing 13th Five-Year Plan, including the "Business As Usual (BAU)", the "Public Transportation Priority(PTP)", the "New Energy Vehicle(NEV)", the "Active Transportation(AT)", the "Private Car Regulation(PCR)" and the "Hybrid Policy(HP)". Then the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System(LEAP model) framework is adopted to estimate CO2 emission under given policies scenarios up to year 2020 and analyze the implications. The results demonstrate that the low-carbon transportation policies can reduce CO2 emission effectively. Specifically, the "Hybrid Policy(HP)" has the best performance. In terms of single policy effect, the "Private Car Regulation(PCR)" comes first followed by the "Public Transportation Priority(PTP)".

  18. A procedure for the determination of scenario earthquakes for seismic design based on probabilistic seismic hazard analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This report presents a study on the procedures for the determination of scenario earthquakes for seismic design of nuclear power plants (NPPs) based on probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). In the recent years, the use of PSHA, which is a part of seismic probabilistic safety assessment (PSA), to determine the design basis earthquake motions for NPPs has been proposed. The identified earthquakes are called probability-based scenario earthquakes (PBSEs). The concept of PBSEs originates both from the study of US NRC and from Ishikawa and Kameda. The assessment of PBSEs is composed of seismic hazard analysis and identification of dominant earthquakes. The objectives of this study are to formulate the concept of PBSEs and to examine the procedures for determining the PBSEs for a domestic NPP site. This report consists of three parts, namely, procedures to compile analytical conditions for PBSEs, an assessment to identify PBSEs for a model site using the Ishikawa's concept and the examination of uncertainties involved in analytical conditions. The results obtained from the examination of PBSEs using Ishikawa's concept are as follows. (a) Since PBSEs are expressed by hazard-consistent magnitude and distance in terms of a prescribed reference probability, it is easy to obtain a concrete image of earthquakes that determine the ground response spectrum to be considered in the design of NPPs. (b) Source contribution factors provide the information on the importance of the earthquake source regions and/or active faults, and allows the selection of a couple of PBSEs based on their importance to the site. (c) Since analytical conditions involve uncertainty, sensitivity analyses on uncertainties that would affect seismic hazard curves and identification of PBSEs were performed on various aspects and provided useful insights for assessment of PBSEs. A result from this sensitivity analysis was that, although the difference in selection of attenuation equations led to a

  19. A procedure for the determination of scenario earthquakes for seismic design based on probabilistic seismic hazard analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hirose, Jiro; Muramatsu, Ken [Japan Atomic Energy Research Inst., Tokai, Ibaraki (Japan). Tokai Research Establishment; Okumura, Toshihiko; Taki, Satoshi [Ohsaki Research Institute, Inc., Tokyo (Japan)

    2002-03-01

    This report presents a study on the procedures for the determination of scenario earthquakes for seismic design of nuclear power plants (NPPs) based on probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). In the recent years, the use of PSHA, which is a part of seismic probabilistic safety assessment (PSA), to determine the design basis earthquake motions for NPPs has been proposed. The identified earthquakes are called probability-based scenario earthquakes (PBSEs). The concept of PBSEs originates both from the study of US NRC and from Ishikawa and Kameda. The assessment of PBSEs is composed of seismic hazard analysis and identification of dominant earthquakes. The objectives of this study are to formulate the concept of PBSEs and to examine the procedures for determining the PBSEs for a domestic NPP site. This report consists of three parts, namely, procedures to compile analytical conditions for PBSEs, an assessment to identify PBSEs for a model site using the Ishikawa's concept and the examination of uncertainties involved in analytical conditions. The results obtained from the examination of PBSEs using Ishikawa's concept are as follows. (a) Since PBSEs are expressed by hazard-consistent magnitude and distance in terms of a prescribed reference probability, it is easy to obtain a concrete image of earthquakes that determine the ground response spectrum to be considered in the design of NPPs. (b) Source contribution factors provide the information on the importance of the earthquake source regions and/or active faults, and allows the selection of a couple of PBSEs based on their importance to the site. (c) Since analytical conditions involve uncertainty, sensitivity analyses on uncertainties that would affect seismic hazard curves and identification of PBSEs were performed on various aspects and provided useful insights for assessment of PBSEs. A result from this sensitivity analysis was that, although the difference in selection of attenuation equations led

  20. COMPETITIVE INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS - SCENARIOS METHOD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivan Valeriu

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Keeping a company in the top performing players in the relevant market depends not only on its ability to develop continually, sustainably and balanced, to the standards set by the customer and competition, but also on the ability to protect its strategic information and to know in advance the strategic information of the competition. In addition, given that economic markets, regardless of their profile, enable interconnection not only among domestic companies, but also between domestic companies and foreign companies, the issue of economic competition moves from the national economies to the field of interest of regional and international economic organizations. The stakes for each economic player is to keep ahead of the competition and to be always prepared to face market challenges. Therefore, it needs to know as early as possible, how to react to others’ strategy in terms of research, production and sales. If a competitor is planning to produce more and cheaper, then it must be prepared to counteract quickly this movement. Competitive intelligence helps to evaluate the capabilities of competitors in the market, legally and ethically, and to develop response strategies. One of the main goals of the competitive intelligence is to acknowledge the role of early warning and prevention of surprises that could have a major impact on the market share, reputation, turnover and profitability in the medium and long term of a company. This paper presents some aspects of competitive intelligence, mainly in terms of information analysis and intelligence generation. Presentation is theoretical and addresses a structured method of information analysis - scenarios method – in a version that combines several types of analysis in order to reveal some interconnecting aspects of the factors governing the activity of a company.

  1. Multi-GPU based framework for real-time motion analysis and tracking in multi-user scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sidi Ahmed Mahmoudi

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Video processing algorithms present a necessary tool for various domains related to computer vision such as motion tracking, event detection and localization in multi-user scenarios (crowd videos, mobile camera, scenes with noise, etc.. However, the new video standards, especially those in high definitions require more computation since their treatment is applied on large video frames. As result, the current implementations, even running on modern hardware, cannot provide a real-time processing (25 frames per second, fps. Several solutions have been proposed to overcome this constraint, by exploiting graphic processing units (GPUs. Although they exploit GPU platforms, they are not able to provide a real-time processing of high definition video sequences. In this work, we propose a new framework that enables an efficient exploitation of single and multiple GPUs, in order to achieve real-time processing of Full HD or even 4K video standards. Moreover, the framework includes several GPU based primitive functions related to motion analysis and tracking methods, such as silhouette extraction, contours extraction, corners detection and tracking using optical flow estimation. Based on this framework, we developed several real-time and GPU based video processing applications such as motion detection using moving camera, event detection and event localization

  2. So These Numbers Really Mean Something? A Role Playing Scenario-Based Approach to the Undergraduate Instrumental Analysis Laboratory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grannas, Amanda M.; Lagalante, Anthony F.

    2010-01-01

    A new curricular approach in our undergraduate second-year instrumental analysis laboratory was implemented. Students work collaboratively on scenarios in diverse fields including pharmaceuticals, forensics, gemology, art conservation, and environmental chemistry. Each laboratory section (approximately 12 students) is divided into three groups…

  3. Spatially comprehensive data for forestry scenario analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Barth, Andreas

    2007-01-01

    This thesis focuses on the use of forest data for national level policy making. Three major issues were considered: (i) to determine typical requirements of data in forestry scenario analysis, (ii) to evaluate and further develop methods to determine data requirements, and (iii) to develop methods that improve data usability in forestry scenario analysis. Increasingly, the trend is to use spatially comprehensive data as a basis for forestry scenario analysis. Compared to traditional approache...

  4. Scenario-based roadmapping assessing nuclear technology development paths for future nuclear energy system scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nuclear energy may play a significant role in a future sustainable energy mix. The transition from today's nuclear energy system towards a future more sustainable nuclear energy system will be dictated by technology availability, energy market competitiveness and capability to achieve sustainability through the nuclear fuel cycle. Various scenarios have been investigated worldwide each with a diverse set of assumptions on the timing and characteristics of new nuclear energy systems. Scenario-based roadmapping combines the dynamic scenario-analysis of nuclear energy systems' futures with the technology roadmap information published and analysed in various technology assessment reports though integrated within the nuclear technology roadmap Nuclear-Roadmap.net. The advantages of this combination is to allow mutual improvement of scenario analysis and nuclear technology roadmapping providing a higher degree of confidence in the assessment of nuclear energy system futures. This paper provides a description of scenario-based roadmapping based on DANESS and Nuclear-Roadmap.net. (author)

  5. Scenario Based Network Infrastructure Planning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knudsen, Thomas Phillip; Pedersen, Jens Myrup; Madsen, Ole Brun

    2005-01-01

    The paper presents a method for IT infrastructure planning that take into account very long term developments in usages. The method creates a scenario for a final, time independent stage in the planning process. The method abstracts relevant modelling factors from available information; this...

  6. Scenario analysis for estimating the learning rate of photovoltaic power generation based on learning curve theory in South Korea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    South Korea, as the 9th largest energy consuming in 2013 and the 7th largest greenhouse gas emitting country in 2011, established ‘Low Carbon Green Growth’ as the national vision in 2008, and is announcing various active energy policies that are set to gain the attention of the world. In this paper, we estimated the decrease of photovoltaic power generation cost in Korea based on the learning curve theory. Photovoltaic energy is one of the leading renewable energy sources, and countries all over the world are currently expanding R and D, demonstration and deployment of photovoltaic technology. In order to estimate the learning rate of photovoltaic energy in Korea, both conventional 1FLC (one-factor learning curve), which considers only the cumulative power generation, and 2FLC, which also considers R and D investment were applied. The 1FLC analysis showed that the cost of power generation decreased by 3.1% as the cumulative power generation doubled. The 2FCL analysis presented that the cost decreases by 2.33% every time the cumulative photovoltaic power generation is doubled and by 5.13% every time R and D investment is doubled. Moreover, the effect of R and D investment on photovoltaic technology took after around 3 years, and the depreciation rate of R and D investment was around 20%. - Highlights: • We analyze the learning effects of photovoltaic energy technology in Korea. • In order to calculate the learning rate, we use 1FLC (one-factor learning curve) and 2FLC methods, respectively. • 1FLC method considers only the cumulative power generation. • 2FLC method considers both cumulative power generation and knowledge stock. • We analyze a variety of scenarios by time lag and depreciation rate of R and D investment

  7. Implementation and Analysis of a Wireless Sensor Network-Based Pet Location Monitoring System for Domestic Scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aguirre, Erik; Lopez-Iturri, Peio; Azpilicueta, Leyre; Astrain, José Javier; Villadangos, Jesús; Santesteban, Daniel; Falcone, Francisco

    2016-01-01

    The flexibility of new age wireless networks and the variety of sensors to measure a high number of variables, lead to new scenarios where anything can be monitored by small electronic devices, thereby implementing Wireless Sensor Networks (WSN). Thanks to ZigBee, RFID or WiFi networks the precise location of humans or animals as well as some biological parameters can be known in real-time. However, since wireless sensors must be attached to biological tissues and they are highly dispersive, propagation of electromagnetic waves must be studied to deploy an efficient and well-working network. The main goal of this work is to study the influence of wireless channel limitations in the operation of a specific pet monitoring system, validated at physical channel as well as at functional level. In this sense, radio wave propagation produced by ZigBee devices operating at the ISM 2.4 GHz band is studied through an in-house developed 3D Ray Launching simulation tool, in order to analyze coverage/capacity relations for the optimal system selection as well as deployment strategy in terms of number of transceivers and location. Furthermore, a simplified dog model is developed for simulation code, considering not only its morphology but also its dielectric properties. Relevant wireless channel information such as power distribution, power delay profile and delay spread graphs are obtained providing an extensive wireless channel analysis. A functional dog monitoring system is presented, operating over the implemented ZigBee network and providing real time information to Android based devices. The proposed system can be scaled in order to consider different types of domestic pets as well as new user based functionalities. PMID:27589751

  8. Scenario-based Training: Director's Cut

    OpenAIRE

    Peeters, M.M.M.; van den Bosch, K.; Meyer, J-J.Ch.; Neerincx, M. A.

    2011-01-01

    Research regarding autonomous learning shows that freeplay does not result in optimal learning. Combining scenario-based training with intelligent agent technology off ers the possibility to create autonomous training enriched with automated adaptive support delivered by a director agent. We conducted an experiment to investigate whether directing training scenarios improves the quality of training. Six instructors rated video fragments of directed and non-directed scenarios in terms of learn...

  9. Web Based Tool for Mission Operations Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyles, Carole A.; Bindschadler, Duane L.

    2008-01-01

    A conventional practice for spaceflight projects is to document scenarios in a monolithic Operations Concept document. Such documents can be hundreds of pages long and may require laborious updates. Software development practice utilizes scenarios in the form of smaller, individual use cases, which are often structured and managed using UML. We have developed a process and a web-based scenario tool that utilizes a similar philosophy of smaller, more compact scenarios (but avoids the formality of UML). The need for a scenario process and tool became apparent during the authors' work on a large astrophysics mission. It was noted that every phase of the Mission (e.g., formulation, design, verification and validation, and operations) looked back to scenarios to assess completeness of requirements and design. It was also noted that terminology needed to be clarified and structured to assure communication across all levels of the project. Attempts to manage, communicate, and evolve scenarios at all levels of a project using conventional tools (e.g., Excel) and methods (Scenario Working Group meetings) were not effective given limitations on budget and staffing. The objective of this paper is to document the scenario process and tool created to offer projects a low-cost capability to create, communicate, manage, and evolve scenarios throughout project development. The process and tool have the further benefit of allowing the association of requirements with particular scenarios, establishing and viewing relationships between higher- and lower-level scenarios, and the ability to place all scenarios in a shared context. The resulting structured set of scenarios is widely visible (using a web browser), easily updated, and can be searched according to various criteria including the level (e.g., Project, System, and Team) and Mission Phase. Scenarios are maintained in a web-accessible environment that provides a structured set of scenario fields and allows for maximum

  10. Establishment of a maintenance plan based on quantitative analysis in the context of RCM in a JIT production scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper presents a quantitative method for supporting the preparation or review of an equipment maintenance plan in a Just-in-time production scenario. The proposed method includes the following steps: (i) identifying the parts that influence reliability; (ii) surveying the failure rates and times to repair the parts; (iii) classification of parts according to the effect of their failures; (iv) surveying the line occupation parameters; (v) identifying the probability distributions for time to failure, time to repair, and line occupation; (vi) simulating the production and maintenance using the Monte Carlo approach; (vii) conducting a sensitivity analysis concerning variations in demand, MTTF, and MTTR; and (viii) establishing optimized intervals for preventive maintenance. The method is illustrated through an application in a labeling and filling gallons line at a paints and dyes production company. This method allowed the identification of critical parts as it relates to the productive scenario in question. The results can support companies in their decision making regarding the need and/or type of maintenance investment that would best fit an expected demand scenario

  11. Scenario Based Methodologies in Identifying Ubicomp Application Sets

    OpenAIRE

    Mahon, F.; Pfeifer, Tom; Crotty, M.

    2005-01-01

    In ubiquitous systems of the future, a requirement for appropriate methods for the selection, analysis and evaluation of applications is evident. Traditional methods of analysis rely heavilyon the inherent predictability of the system, something which is totally lacking in ubiquitous systems. This paper discusses one possible approach to flexible analysis and evaluation, the ScenarioBased Approach, describing its use in the IST FP6 project, Daidalos. The Scenario Based approach addresses the ...

  12. A scenario analysis of future energy systems based on an energy flow model represented as functionals of technology options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Highlights: • Energy flow model was represented as the functionals of technology options. • Relationships among available technologies can be visualized by developed model. • Technology roadmapping can be incorporated into the model as technical scenario. • Combination of technologies can increase their contribution to the environment. - Abstract: The design of energy systems has become an issue all over the world. A single optimal system cannot be suggested because the availability of infrastructure and resources and the acceptability of the system should be discussed locally, involving all related stakeholders in the energy system. In particular, researchers and engineers of technologies related to energy systems should be able to perform the forecasting and roadmapping of future energy systems and indicate quantitative results of scenario analyses. We report an energy flow model developed for analysing scenarios of future Japanese energy systems implementing a variety of feasible technology options. The model was modularized and represented as functionals of appropriate technology options, which enables the aggregation and disaggregation of energy systems by defining functionals for single technologies, packages integrating multi-technologies, and mini-systems such as regions implementing industrial symbiosis. Based on the model, the combinations of technologies on both energy supply and demand sides can be addressed considering not only the societal scenarios such as resource prices, economic growth and population change but also the technical scenarios including the development and penetration of energy-related technologies such as distributed solid oxide fuel cells in residential sectors and new-generation vehicles, and the replacement and shift of current technologies such as heat pumps for air conditioning and centralized power generation. The developed model consists of two main modules; namely, a power generation dispatching module for the

  13. Experiments, Passive Observation and Scenario Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hoover, Kevin D.; Juselius, Katarina

    he develops in his famous monograph, The Probability Approach in Econometrics (1944). We show how, once the details of the analogy are systematically understood, the experimental analogy can be used to shed light on theory-consistent cointegrated vector autoregression (CVAR) scenario analysis. CVAR...... scenario analysis can be seen as a clear example of Haavelmo's 'experimental' approach; and, in turn, it can be shown to extend and develop Haavelmo's methodology and to address issues that Haavelmo regarded as unresolved....

  14. A climate profile indicator based comparative analysis of climate change scenarios with regard to maize (Zea mays L.) cultures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dios, N.; Szenteleki, K.; Ferenczy, A.; Petranyl, G. [Corvinus Univ. of Budapest (Hungary). Dept. of Mathematics and Informatics; Hufnagel, L. [Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Budapest (Hungary). Adaptation to Climate Change Research Group

    2009-07-01

    Recent research results let us conclude that climate change might have a significant effect on the yield of wheat, barley, rye, potato and maize, and the borderlines of their area of cultivation might shift 100--150 kilometers to the north. The possible mass occurrence of new aggressive pest, pathogen and weed species in Hungary might also create a problem from plant protection. Maize is one of the most important fodder-plants. Hungary has close to the largest total cultivating area in Europe. Maize is used in many ways, thus being of outstanding economic importance. In Hungary the conditions of maize cultivation are -- except for dry years -- quite favorable in most cultural regions and complex cultivating technologies are available. It also might gain a significant role in the line of new environment-friendly alternative sources of energy. For these reasons, it is important to examine the influence of meteorological factors on maize ecosystems and this examination should include as many climate change scenarios and as long a time series as possible. Using ecological data compiled from scientific literature on pest, pathogen and weed species characteristic in maize cultures in Hungary, we defined monthly climate profile indicators and applied them to complete a comparative analysis of the historical and modelled climate change scenario meteorological data of the city of Debrecen. Our results call attention to a drastic decline of the competitive ability of maize as compared to several C{sub 4} and especially C{sub 3} plants. According to the stricter scenarios, the frequency of potential pest and pathogen damage emergency situations will grow significantly by the end of the century.

  15. Scenarios Analysis of the Energies’ Consumption and Carbon Emissions in China Based on a Dynamic CGE Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuanying Chi

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the development trends and variation characteristics of China’s economy, energy consumption and carbon emissions from 2007 to 2030, and the impacts on China’s economic growth, energy consumption, and carbon emissions under the carbon tax policy scenarios, based on the dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE model. The results show that during the simulation period, China’s economy will keep a relatively high growth rate, but the growth rate will slow down under the benchmark scenario. The energy consumption intensity and the carbon emissions intensity per unit of Gross Domestic Product (GDP will continually decrease. The energy consumption structure and industrial structure will gradually optimize. With the economic growth, the total energy consumption will constantly increase, and the carbon dioxide emissions are still large, and the situation of energy-saving and emission-reduction is still serious. The carbon tax is very important for energy-saving and emission-reduction and energy consumption structure optimization, and the effect of the carbon tax on GDP is small. If the carbon tax could be levied and the enterprise income tax could be reduced at the same time, the dual goals of reducing energy consumption and carbon emissions and increasing the GDP growth can be achieved. Improving the technical progress level of clean power while implementing a carbon tax policy is very meaningful to optimize energy consumption structure and reduce the carbon emissions, but it has some offsetting effect to reduce energy consumption.

  16. CELSS scenario analysis: Breakeven calculations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mason, R. M.

    1980-01-01

    A model of the relative mass requirements of food production components in a controlled ecological life support system (CELSS) based on regenerative concepts is described. Included are a discussion of model scope, structure, and example calculations. Computer programs for cultivar and breakeven calculations are also included.

  17. Scenario and data base for safety assessment of geological disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In order to pick up the important items for the safety researches scenarios and data bases were listed. The structure of this report is as following: 1) Based scenario. The most probable release scenario and well known mechanism were selected to assess the system performance at normal conditions. 2) Other scenarios. Unknown phanomena likely relevant to release were collected for sensitivity analysis of the phenomena and less probable penomena were collected for assessment on abnormal conditions. 3) Data bases - For preconditions : The combination of barriers, phernomenas to be assessed, data regarding the waste form, capacity of repository and dominant functions of bariers for each period were reviewed. - For based scenario : Recommended values of parameters in the based scinario were selected from mainly national assessment reports such as Project Gewahr '85 and KBS-3. Results of relating experiments in our laboratory were also described briefly. - For other scenarios : Probable values and/or the range of parameters were reviewed. 4) Probabilistic phenomena relevant to release. A categories of IAEA safety series No. 68 were referred where they are categorized to two groups bringing perturbations of normal scenarios and new scenarios. (author)

  18. Scenario analysis for supply chain integration in container shipping

    OpenAIRE

    Lam, J.S.L.; E. Van de Voorde

    2011-01-01

    Competition in the business world nowadays is largely between supply chains, rather than individual players only. The same situation exists in container shipping. The study looks into container shipping from an integrated perspective and investigates the nature and level of supply chain integration in container shipping. Based on empirical examinations of the world's top 30 container shipping lines, a scenario analysis is conducted. The paper aims to present the scenario analysis for examinin...

  19. Computational Scenario-based Capability Planning

    CERN Document Server

    Abbass, Hussein; Dam, Helen; Baker, Stephen; Whitacre, James M; Sarker, Ruhul; 10.1145/1389095.1389378

    2009-01-01

    Scenarios are pen-pictures of plausible futures, used for strategic planning. The aim of this investigation is to expand the horizon of scenario-based planning through computational models that are able to aid the analyst in the planning process. The investigation builds upon the advances of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) to create a novel, flexible and customizable computational capability-based planning methodology that is practical and theoretically sound. We will show how evolutionary computation, in particular evolutionary multi-objective optimization, can play a central role - both as an optimizer and as a source for innovation.

  20. Nuclear Futures Analysis and Scenario Building

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This LDRD project created and used advanced analysis capabilities to postulate scenarios and identify issues, externalities, and technologies associated with future ''things nuclear''. ''Things nuclear'' include areas pertaining to nuclear weapons, nuclear materials, and nuclear energy, examined in the context of future domestic and international environments. Analysis tools development included adaptation and expansion of energy, environmental, and economics (E3) models to incorporate a robust description of the nuclear fuel cycle (both current and future technology pathways), creation of a beginning proliferation risk model (coupled to the (E3) model), and extension of traditional first strike stability models to conditions expected to exist in the future (smaller force sizes, multipolar engagement environments, inclusion of actual and latent nuclear weapons (capability)). Accomplishments include scenario development for regional and global nuclear energy, the creation of a beginning nuclear architecture designed to improve the proliferation resistance and environmental performance of the nuclear fuel cycle, and numerous results for future nuclear weapons scenarios

  1. Sensitivity analysis of scenario models for operational risk Advanced Measurement Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Chaudhary, Dinesh

    2014-01-01

    Scenario Analysis (SA) plays a key role in determination of operational risk capital under Basel II Advanced Measurement Approach. However, operational risk capital based on scenario data may exhibit high sensitivity or wrong-way sensitivity to scenario inputs. In this paper, we first discuss scenario generation using quantile approach and parameter estimation using quantile matching. Then we use single-loss approximation (SLA) to examine sensitivity of scenario based capital to scenario inputs.

  2. Scenario-based table top simulations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Broberg, Ole; Edwards, Kasper; Nielsen, J.;

    2012-01-01

    This study developed and tested a scenario-based table top simulation method in a user-driven innovation setting. A team of researchers worked together with a user group of five medical staff members from the existing clinic. Table top simulations of a new clinic were carried out in a simple model...

  3. Scenario-based Training: Director's Cut

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Peeters, M.M.M.; Van den Bosch, K.; Meyer, J-J.Ch.; Neerincx, M.A.

    2011-01-01

    Research regarding autonomous learning shows that freeplay does not result in optimal learning. Combining scenario-based training with intelligent agent technology off ers the possibility to create autonomous training enriched with automated adaptive support delivered by a director agent. We conduct

  4. [Environmental management: critical analysis, scenarios and challenges].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porto, Marcelo Firpo de Souza; Schütz, Gabriel Eduardo

    2012-06-01

    This article discusses the limits, alternatives and challenges of environmental management in contemporary globalized capitalist societies. It is based on a critical analysis supported by authors from social sciences, political ecology and public health. To this end, we systematize the meaning of hegemonic environmental management in terms of eco-efficiency and its limits to tackle environmental risks and construct democratic processes and societies. We developed four ideal scenarios involving possible combinations of environmental management and democracy. This model served as a base, together with academic studies and the theoretical and militant experience of the authors, for a reflection on the current characteristics and future trends of environmental management and democracy, with emphasis on the reality of Latin America, specifically Brazil. Lastly, we discuss possibilities for social transformation taking into consideration the contradictions and emancipatory alternatives resulting from confrontations between hegemonic tendencies of the market and counter-hegemonic utopias and social movements. The latter assume principles of environmental justice, economic solidarity, agro-ecology and sustainability as well as the construction of new epistemologies. PMID:22699636

  5. Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joao M. Goncalves

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Personal information is increasingly gathered and used for providing services tailored to user preferences, but the datasets used to provide such functionality can represent serious privacy threats if not appropriately protected. Work in privacy-preserving data publishing targeted privacy guarantees that protect against record re-identification, by making records indistinguishable, or sensitive attribute value disclosure, by introducing diversity or noise in the sensitive values. However, most approaches fail in the high-dimensional case, and the ones that don't introduce a utility cost incompatible with tailored recommendation scenarios. This paper aims at a sensible trade-off between privacy and the benefits of tailored recommendations, in the context of privacy-preserving data publishing. We empirically demonstrate that significant privacy improvements can be achieved at a utility cost compatible with tailored recommendation scenarios, using a simple partition-based sanitization method.

  6. A critical analysis of the NegaWatt scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The author proposes a rather radical critical analysis of the NegaWatt scenario which is mainly based on the development of the use of solid and liquid biomass produced by forests and farms, and of some marginal resources like wood and urban wastes. He shows that wood resources in France are not sufficient as part of the wood is used for construction. A further exploitation of wood would lead to a dramatic increase of costs. He shows that the scenario overestimates the available wood in France, and moreover, that the promoters of the scenario overstep the physical, biological, social and economic limits of the real world of agriculture

  7. Scenario-based energy efficiency and productivity in China: A non-radial directional distance function analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Improving energy efficiency and productivity is one of the most cost-effective ways for achieving the sustainable development target in China. This paper employs non-radial directional distance function approach to empirically investigate energy efficiency and energy productivity by including CO2 emissions as an undesirable output. Three production scenarios, namely energy conservation (EC), energy conservation and emission reduction (ECER), and energy conservation, emission reduction and economic growth (ECEREG), are specified to assess China's energy efficiency and productivity growth during the period of Eleventh Five-Year Plan. Our empirical results show that there exist substantial differences in China's total-factor energy efficiency and productivity under different scenarios. Under the ECEREG scenario, the national average total-factor energy efficiency score was 0.6306 in 2005–2010, while the national average total-factor energy productivity increased by 0.27% annually during the period. The main driving force for energy productivity growth in China was energy technological change rather than energy efficiency change. - Highlights: • China's regional energy efficiency and productivity in 2005–2010 are evaluated. • Three production scenarios are considered. • Non-radial directional distance function with CO2 emissions is employed. • Technological change is the main driver for China's energy productivity growth

  8. Narrative scenario development based on cross-impact analysis for the evaluation of global-warming mitigation options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Social, technological, economic and environmental issues should be considered comprehensively for the evaluation of global-warming mitigation options. Existing integrated assessment models include assessment of quantitative factors; however, these models do not explicitly consider interactions among qualitative factors in the background - for example, introductions of nuclear power stations interact with social acceptability. In this paper, we applied a technological forecasting method - the cross-impact method - which explicitly deals with the relationships among relevant factors, and we then developed narrative scenarios having consistency with qualitative social contexts. An example of developed scenarios in 2050, assuming the global population and the gross domestic product are the same as those of the A1 scenario of the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, tells us that: (1) the Internet will be extensively used in all regions; (2) the global unified market will appear; (3) regional cultures will tend to converge; (4) long-term investments (of more than 30 years) will become difficult and therefore nuclear-power stations will not increase so remarkably; (5) the self-sufficient supply and diversification of primary energy sources will not progress so rapidly; and (6) due to the widespread use of the Internet, people will be more educated in global environmental issues and environmental costs will be more socially acceptable

  9. Toward Interactive Scenario Analysis and Exploration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gayle, Thomas R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). Interactive Systems, Simulations, and Analysis; Summers, Kenneth Lee [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). Interactive Systems, Simulations, and Analysis; Jungels, John [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). Interactive Systems, Simulations, and Analysis; Oppel III, Fred J. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). Interactive Systems, Simulations, and Analysis

    2015-01-01

    As Modeling and Simulation (M&S) tools have matured, their applicability and importance have increased across many national security challenges. In particular, they provide a way to test how something may behave without the need to do real world testing. However, current and future changes across several factors including capabilities, policy, and funding are driving a need for rapid response or evaluation in ways that many M&S tools cannot address. Issues around large data, computational requirements, delivery mechanisms, and analyst involvement already exist and pose significant challenges. Furthermore, rising expectations, rising input complexity, and increasing depth of analysis will only increase the difficulty of these challenges. In this study we examine whether innovations in M&S software coupled with advances in ''cloud'' computing and ''big-data'' methodologies can overcome many of these challenges. In particular, we propose a simple, horizontally-scalable distributed computing environment that could provide the foundation (i.e. ''cloud'') for next-generation M&S-based applications based on the notion of ''parallel multi-simulation''. In our context, the goal of parallel multi- simulation is to consider as many simultaneous paths of execution as possible. Therefore, with sufficient resources, the complexity is dominated by the cost of single scenario runs as opposed to the number of runs required. We show the feasibility of this architecture through a stable prototype implementation coupled with the Umbra Simulation Framework [6]. Finally, we highlight the utility through multiple novel analysis tools and by showing the performance improvement compared to existing tools.

  10. Project SAFE. Scenario and system analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This report describes the scenario analysis conducted within the SAFE project, which has resulted in a qualitative description of the SFR disposal system. The scenario report generally documents and justifies the selected system description model, selected scenario initiating events and conditions, the general selection of the type of quantitative evaluation models to be used and the information flow between models. The development of a system description model is done by groups of experts through a series of documented meetings, utilising the Interaction Matrix methodology. This methodology involves a systematic identification of processes and interactions between these processes occurring in the system and documented expert judgements of the relevance of these processes and interactions for the evolution of the system. The SFR disposal system is described by three coupled matrices: one for the repository vaults, one for the geosphere and one for the biosphere. The contents of the matrices have been audited against different international lists of FEPs (Features, Events, Processes) in order to ensure that all FEPs that are relevant are considered in the matrices. These lists of FEPs as well as experiences from past and recent SKB assessments have also been used in the selection of scenario initiating events and conditions. The system description in terms of interaction matrices cannot directly be used in the quantitative assessment. However, the system description can be used to point out the important interactions and how they should be treated in the quantitative analyses and to check that this is done. For this purpose an information flow diagram has been used. This diagram graphically displays the information exchange between the different analyses selected for the quantitative assessment of the evolution of the disposal system

  11. A Methodology For Flood Vulnerability Analysis In Complex Flood Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Figueiredo, R.; Martina, M. L. V.; Dottori, F.

    2015-12-01

    Nowadays, flood risk management is gaining importance in order to mitigate and prevent flood disasters, and consequently the analysis of flood vulnerability is becoming a key research topic. In this paper, we propose a methodology for large-scale analysis of flood vulnerability. The methodology is based on a GIS-based index, which considers local topography, terrain roughness and basic information about the flood scenario to reproduce the diffusive behaviour of floodplain flow. The methodology synthetizes the spatial distribution of index values into maps and curves, used to represent the vulnerability in the area of interest. Its application allows for considering different levels of complexity of flood scenarios, from localized flood defence failures to complex hazard scenarios involving river reaches. The components of the methodology are applied and tested in two floodplain areas in Northern Italy recently affected by floods. The results show that the methodology can provide an original and valuable insight of flood vulnerability variables and processes.

  12. The advanced scenario analysis for performance assessment of geological disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    First of all, with regard to the FEP information data on the Engineered Barrier System (EBS) developed by JNC, description level and content of the FEPs have been examined from various angles on the basis of the latest research information. Each content of the FEP data has been classified and modified by means of integrating descriptive items, checking detail levels and correlations with other FEPs, collating with the H12 report, and adding technical information after H12 report. Secondly, scenario-modeling process has been studied. The study has been conducted by evaluating representation of the repository system, definition of FEP properties, and process interactions based on the concept of the interaction matrix (RES format) which represents influences between physicochemical characteristics of the repository, followed by an experimental development of the actual RES interaction matrix based on the H12 report as the examination to improve the transparency, traceability and comprehensibility of the scenario analysis process. Lastly, in relation to the geological disposal system, assessment techniques have been examined for more practical scenario analysis on particularly strong perturbations. Possible conceptual models have been proposed for each of these scenarios; seismic, faulting, and dike intrusion. As a result of these researches, a future direction for advanced scenario analysis on performance assessment has been indicated, as well as associated issues to be discussed have been clarified. (author)

  13. Risk analysis of dust explosion scenarios using Bayesian networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Zhi; Khakzad, Nima; Khan, Faisal; Amyotte, Paul

    2015-02-01

    In this study, a methodology has been proposed for risk analysis of dust explosion scenarios based on Bayesian network. Our methodology also benefits from a bow-tie diagram to better represent the logical relationships existing among contributing factors and consequences of dust explosions. In this study, the risks of dust explosion scenarios are evaluated, taking into account common cause failures and dependencies among root events and possible consequences. Using a diagnostic analysis, dust particle properties, oxygen concentration, and safety training of staff are identified as the most critical root events leading to dust explosions. The probability adaptation concept is also used for sequential updating and thus learning from past dust explosion accidents, which is of great importance in dynamic risk assessment and management. We also apply the proposed methodology to a case study to model dust explosion scenarios, to estimate the envisaged risks, and to identify the vulnerable parts of the system that need additional safety measures. PMID:25264172

  14. Analysis of fast reactor scenario with different conversion ratios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Korean fast reactor scenarios have been analyzed for various kinds of conversion ratio by the DANESS system dynamic analysis code. The once-through fuel cycle analysis was modeled based on the Korean 'National Energy Basic Plan' up to 2030 and a postulated nuclear demand growth rate until 2150. The fast reactor scenario analysis has been performed for three kinds of conversion ratios such as 0.3, 0.61 and 1.0. Through the calculations, the nuclear reactor deployment scenario, front-end cycle, back-end cycle, and long-term heat load have been investigated. From the once-through results, it is shown that the nuclear power demand would be ∼70 GWe and the total amount of the spent fuel accumulated by 2150 would be ∼168000 t. Also, the fast reactor scenario analysis results show that the spent fuel inventory and out-pile transuranic element can be reduced by increasing the fast reactor conversion ratio. Furthermore, the long-term heat load of spent fuel decreases with increasing the conversion ratio. However, it is known that the deployment of a fast reactor of low conversion ratio does not much reduce the spent fuel and out-pile transuranic element inventory due to the fast reactor deployment limitation which is related to the availability of transuranic elements. (author)

  15. Addressing an Uncertain Future Using Scenario Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Siddiqui, Afzal S.; Marnay, Chris

    2006-12-15

    The Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) has had a longstanding goal of introducing uncertainty into the analysis it routinely conducts in compliance with the Government Performance and Results Act (GPRA) and for strategic management purposes. The need to introduce some treatment of uncertainty arises both because it would be good general management practice, and because intuitively many of the technologies under development by EERE have a considerable advantage in an uncertain world. For example, an expected kWh output from a wind generator in a future year, which is not exposed to volatile and unpredictable fuel prices, should be truly worth more than an equivalent kWh from an alternative fossil fuel fired technology. Indeed, analysts have attempted to measure this value by comparing the prices observed in fixed-price natural gas contracts compared to ones in which buyers are exposed to market prices (see Bolinger, Wiser, and Golove and (2004)). In addition to the routine reasons for exploring uncertainty given above, the history of energy markets appears to have exhibited infrequent, but troubling, regime shifts, i.e., historic turning points at which the center of gravity or fundamental nature of the system appears to have abruptly shifted. Figure 1 below shows an estimate of how the history of natural gas fired generating costs has evolved over the last three decades. The costs shown incorporate both the well-head gas price and an estimate of how improving generation technology has gradually tended to lower costs. The purpose of this paper is to explore scenario analysis as a method for introducing uncertainty into EERE's forecasting in a manner consistent with the preceding observation. The two questions are how could it be done, and what is its academic basis, if any. Despite the interest in uncertainty methods, applying them poses some major hurdles because of the heavy reliance of EERE on forecasting tools that are deterministic in

  16. Analysis of the energy scenario Negawatt 2006

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The association Negawatt published in 2003 an energy scenario for the France in 2050, under the name of Negawatt 2006. This document aims to analyze the scenario Negawatt with a comparison of the scenario published on the web site of SLC, Save the Climate. The authors analyzes the main three sectors: electricity, transports and residential to propose their comparison in conclusion. (A.L.B.)

  17. Preliminary Safety Analysis of the Gorleben Site: Safety Concept and Application to Scenario Development Based on a Site-Specific Features, Events and Processes (FEP) Database - 13304

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Based upon the German safety criteria, released in 2010 by the Federal Ministry of the Environment (BMU), a safety concept and a safety assessment concept for the disposal of heat-generating high-level waste have both been developed in the framework of the preliminary safety case for the Gorleben site (Project VSG). The main objective of the disposal is to contain the radioactive waste inside a defined rock zone, which is called containment-providing rock zone. The radionuclides shall remain essentially at the emplacement site, and at the most, a small defined quantity of material shall be able to leave this rock zone. This shall be accomplished by the geological barrier and a technical barrier system, which is required to seal the inevitable penetration of the geological barrier by the construction of the mine. The safe containment has to be demonstrated for probable and less probable evolutions of the site, while evolutions with very low probability (less than 1 % over the demonstration period of 1 million years) need not to be considered. Owing to the uncertainty in predicting the real evolution of the site, plausible scenarios have been derived in a systematic manner. Therefore, a comprehensive site-specific features, events and processes (FEP) data base for the Gorleben site has been developed. The safety concept was directly taken into account, e.g. by identification of FEP with direct influence on the barriers that provide the containment. No effort was spared to identify the interactions of the FEP, their probabilities of occurrence, and their characteristics (values). The information stored in the data base provided the basis for the development of scenarios. The scenario development methodology is based on FEP related to an impairment of the functionality of a subset of barriers, called initial barriers. By taking these FEP into account in their probable characteristics the reference scenario is derived. Thus, the reference scenario describes a

  18. A stochastic analysis of the impact of input parameters on profit of Australian pasture-based dairy farms under variable carbon price scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Highlights: • Two different pasture-based dairy feeding systems were evaluated. • The home-grown forage system outperformed the traditional pasture-based system. • Probability of achieving $200,000 income was reduced by imposition of a carbon tax. • Different farming systems will respond to change differently. • The ‘best choice’ for each individual farm is subjective. - Abstract: The imposition of a carbon tax in the economy will have indirect impacts on dairy farmers in Australia. Although there is a great deal of information available regarding mitigation strategies both in Australia and internationally, there seems to be a lack of research investigating the variable prices of carbon-based emissions on dairy farm operating profits in Australia. In this study, a stochastic analysis comparing the uncertainty in income in response to different prices on carbon-based emissions was conducted. The impact of variability in pasture consumption and variable prices of concentrates and hay on farm profitability was also investigated. The two different feeding systems examined were a ryegrass pasture-based system (RM) and a complementary forage-based system (CF). Imposing a carbon price ($20–$60) and not changing the systems reduced the farm operating profits by 28.4% and 25.6% in the RM and CF systems, respectively compared to a scenario where no carbon price was imposed. Different farming businesses will respond to variability in the rapidly changing operating environment such as fluctuations in pasture availability, price of purchased feeds and price of milk or carbon emissions differently. Further, in case there is a carbon price imposed for GHG emissions emanated from dairy farming systems, changing from pasture-based to more complex feeding systems incorporating home-grown double crops may reduce the reductions in farm operating profits. There is opportunity for future studies to focus on the impacts of different mitigation strategies and policy

  19. Molecular Diagnostic Analysis of Outbreak Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morsink, M. C.; Dekter, H. E.; Dirks-Mulder, A.; van Leeuwen, W. B.

    2012-01-01

    In the current laboratory assignment, technical aspects of the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) are integrated in the context of six different bacterial outbreak scenarios. The "Enterobacterial Repetitive Intergenic Consensus Sequence" (ERIC) PCR was used to analyze different outbreak scenarios. First, groups of 2-4 students determined optimal…

  20. Electricity planning in Japan by 2030 through scenario analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Under continuing policies of the mitigation of GHG (Green House Gases) emission, it is crucial to consider scenarios for Japan to realize a safe and clean future electricity system after the Fukushima nuclear accident. The development plans of nuclear power and renewable energy - mainly PV and wind power - need to be reconsidered. Therefore, in the present study, three electricity supply scenarios in 2030 are proposed according to different future nuclear power development strategies: (1) negative nuclear power; (2) conservative nuclear power; and (3) active pursuit of nuclear power. On the other side, three electricity demand scenarios are also proposed considering energy saving. The purpose of the study is to propose electricity supply systems with maximum renewable energy penetration under different nuclear power development strategies and demand situations through scenario analysis. The scenario analysis is conducted using an input-output hour-by-hour simulation model subject to constraints from technological, economic and environmental perspectives. The obtained installed capacity mix, power generation mix and CO2 emissions of the scenarios were compared and analyzed with each other and with historical data. The results show that (1) penetration level of renewable energy is subject to the share of nuclear power as base load; (2) it is very difficult to remove nuclear power absolutely from the electricity system even when a high level of penetration of renewable energy is realized; (3) high level penetration of renewable energy can reduce the dependence on nuclear and thermal power, but there is a need for more flexible power sources to absorb fluctuations; (4) CO2 emissions reduction compared to 1990 levels can be readily achieved with the help of renewable energy, nuclear power and energy saving in 2030. This is a revised version of the paper that was published in [1]. (author)

  1. Scenario Prediction and Analysis of Urban Growth Using SLEUTH Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    FENG Hui-Hui; LIU Hui-Ping; L(U) Ying

    2012-01-01

    Scenario prediction was introduced to better understand urban dynamics and to support urban planning.Taking the Dongguan central urban area of the Pearl River Delta,China as an example,three urban development scenarios,historical trend (HT) scenario,forest protection (FP) scenario,and growth restriction (GR) scenario,were designed and transplanted into the SLEUTH model through the parameter self-modification method.The quantitative analysis results showed that the urban area would expand continuously from 2003 to 2030 under the HT scenario.More land resources would be saved under the GR scenario than FP scenario.Furthermore,the urban growth under the HT and FP scenarios would come to a steady state by 2020,while this deadline of the GR scenario would be postponed to 2025.The spatial pattern analysis using five spatial metrics,class area,number of patches,largest patch index,edge density,and contagion index,showed that under all the scenarios,the urban patches would become bigger and the form would become more compact,and the urban form under the GR scenario would be the smallest and most heterogeneous.These demonstrated that the GR scenario was more effective in meeting the goal of land protection and sustainable development for the study area.

  2. Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merriam, Eric R; Petty, J Todd; Strager, Michael P

    2016-01-01

    There is a critical need for tools and methodologies capable of managing aquatic systems within heavily impacted watersheds. Current efforts often fall short as a result of an inability to quantify and predict complex cumulative effects of current and future land use scenarios at relevant spatial scales. The goal of this manuscript is to provide methods for conducting a targeted watershed assessment that enables resource managers to produce landscape-based cumulative effects models for use within a scenario analysis management framework. Sites are first selected for inclusion within the watershed assessment by identifying sites that fall along independent gradients and combinations of known stressors. Field and laboratory techniques are then used to obtain data on the physical, chemical, and biological effects of multiple land use activities. Multiple linear regression analysis is then used to produce landscape-based cumulative effects models for predicting aquatic conditions. Lastly, methods for incorporating cumulative effects models within a scenario analysis framework for guiding management and regulatory decisions (e.g., permitting and mitigation) within actively developing watersheds are discussed and demonstrated for 2 sub-watersheds within the mountaintop mining region of central Appalachia. The watershed assessment and management approach provided herein enables resource managers to facilitate economic and development activity while protecting aquatic resources and producing opportunity for net ecological benefits through targeted remediation. PMID:27501287

  3. Control Strategy Scenarios for the Alien Lionfish Pterois volitans in Chinchorro Bank (Mexican Caribbean): Based on Semi-Quantitative Loop Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Marco Ortiz; Fabián Rodriguez-Zaragoza; Brenda Hermosillo-Nuñez; Ferenc Jordán

    2015-01-01

    Ecological and eco-social network models were constructed with different levels of complexity in order to represent and evaluate management strategies for controlling the alien species Pterois volitans in Chinchorro bank (Mexican Caribbean). Levins´s loop analysis was used as a methodological framework for assessing the local stability (considered as a component of sustainability) of the modeled management interventions represented by various scenarios. The results provided by models of diffe...

  4. Flooding Capability for River-based Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, Curtis L. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Prescott, Steven [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Ryan, Emerald [Idaho State Univ., Pocatello, ID (United States); Calhoun, Donna [Boise State Univ., ID (United States); Sampath, Ramprasad [Centroid Labs., Los Angeles, CA (United States); Anderson, S. Danielle [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Casteneda, Cody [Boise State Univ., ID (United States)

    2015-10-01

    This report describes the initial investigation into modeling and simulation tools for application of riverine flooding representation as part of the Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) Pathway external hazards evaluations. The report provides examples of different flooding conditions and scenarios that could impact river and watershed systems. Both 2D and 3D modeling approaches are described.

  5. Wiki Based Collaborative Learning in Interuniversity Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katzlinger, Elisabeth; Herzog, Michael A.

    2014-01-01

    In business education advanced collaboration skills and media literacy are important for surviving in a globalized business where virtual communication between enterprises is part of the day-by-day business. To transform these global working situations into higher education, a learning scenario between two universities in Germany and Austria was…

  6. Scenarios Based on Shared Socioeconomic Pathway Assumptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edmonds, J.

    2013-12-01

    A set of new scenarios is being developed by the international scientific community as part of a larger program that was articulated in Moss, et al. (2009), published in Nature. A long series of meetings including climate researchers drawn from the climate modeling, impacts, adaptation and vulnerability (IAV) and integrated assessment modeling (IAM) communities have led to the development of a set of five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), which define the state of human and natural societies at a macro scale over the course of the 21st century without regard to climate mitigation or change. SSPs were designed to explore a range of possible futures consistent with greater or lesser challenges to mitigation and challenges to adaptation. They include a narrative storyline and a set of quantified measures--e.g. demographic and economic profiles--that define the high-level state of society as it evolves over the 21st century under the assumption of no significant climate feedback. SSPs can be used to develop quantitative scenarios of human Earth systems using IAMs. IAMs produce information about greenhouse gas emissions, energy systems, the economy, agriculture and land use. Each set of SSPs will have a different human Earth system realization for each IAM. Five groups from the IAM community have begun to explore the implications of SSP assumptions for emissions, energy, economy, agriculture and land use. We report the quantitative results of initial experiments from those groups. A major goal of the Moss, et al. strategy was to enable the use of CMIP5 climate model ensemble products for IAV research. CMIP5 climate scenarios used four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, defined in terms of radiative forcing in the year 2100: 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 Wm-2. There is no reason to believe that the SSPs will generate year 2100 levels of radiative forcing that correspond to the four RCP levels, though it is important that at least one SSP produce a

  7. Energy scenario analysis Enova-IFE; Energiscenarioanalyser Enova-IFE

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rosenberg, Eva; Espegren, Kari Aamodt

    2009-11-15

    Institute for Energy Technology has made a projection of energy use in stationary sector of Norway up to 2050 and by the use of the Norwegian MARKAL model analyzed various scenarios. Total increase demand in stationary sectors by 6 TWh, or 4% to 2020 and by 29 TWh or 16% for 2050, which increase primarily comes in the buildings. Scenarios are analyzed to show the long-term potential given the various operating parameters. An important scenario that is analyzed, the fulfillment of renewable directive. In 2005, the renewable share in Norway about 61%. In the analysis it is assumed that the renewable share to be 75% as of 2020. Implementation of energy efficiency will have a crucial role to increase the renewable share, and efficiency contributes with 26 TWh in the base scenario. What percentage of energy efficiency measures are really implemented will have a great impact on how much renewable electricity to be produced, or how much more bio-energy that must be used, in order to achieve the goal of renewable directive. (AG)

  8. Analysis of five simulated straw harvest scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sokhansanj, Shahabaddine [ORNL; Turhollow Jr, Anthony F [ORNL; Stephen, Jamie [University of British Columbia, Vancouver; Stumborg, Mark [AAFC; Fenton, James [Fenton & Associates; Mani, Sudhagar [University of Georgia

    2008-01-01

    Almost 36 million tonnes (t) of cereal grains are harvested annually on more than 16 million hectares (ha) in Canada. The net straw production varies year by year depending upon weather patterns, crop fertility, soil conservation measures, harvest method, and plant variety. The net yield of straw, after discounting for soil conservation, averages approximately 2.5 dry (d)t ha-1. Efficient equipment is needed to collect and package the material as a feedstock for industrial applications. This paper investigates the costs, energy input, and emissions from power equipment used for harvesting straw. Five scenarios were investigated: (1) large square bales, (2) round bales, (3) large compacted stacks (loafs), (4) dried chops, and (5) wet chops. The baled or loafed biomass is stacked next to the farm. Dry chop is collected in a large pile and wet chop is ensiled. The baling and stacking cost was $21.47 dt-1 (dry tonne), with little difference between round and large square baling. Loafing was the cheapest option at $17.08 dt-1. Dry chop and piling was $23.90 dt-1 and wet chop followed by ensiling was $59.75 dt-1. A significant portion of the wet chop cost was in ensiling. Energy input and emissions were proportional to the costs for each system, except for loafing, which required more energy input than the baling systems. As a fraction of the energy content of biomass (roughly 16 GJ dt-1), the energy input ranged from 1.2% for baling to 3.2% for ensiling. Emissions from the power equipment ranged from 20.3 kg CO2e dt-1 to more than 40 kg CO2e dt-1. A sensitivity analysis on the effect of yield on collection costs showed that a 33% increase in yield reduced the cost by 20%. Similarly a sensitivity analysis on weather conditions showed that a 10oC cooler climate extended the harvest period by 5-10 days whereas a 10oC warmer climate shortened the harvest period by 2-3 days.

  9. The scenario-based generalization of radiation therapy margins

    CERN Document Server

    Fredriksson, Albin

    2015-01-01

    We give a scenario-based treatment plan optimization formulation that is equivalent to planning with geometric margins if the scenario doses are calculated using the static dose cloud approximation. If the scenario doses are instead calculated more accurately, then our formulation provides a novel robust planning method that overcomes many of the difficulties associated with previous scenario-based robust planning methods. In particular, our method protects only against uncertainties that can occur in practice, it gives a sharp dose fall-off outside high dose regions, and it avoids underdosage of the target in ``easy'' scenarios. The method shares the benefits of the previous scenario-based robust planning methods over geometric margins for applications where the static dose cloud approximation is inaccurate, such as irradiation with few fields and irradiation with ion beams. These properties are demonstrated on a suite of phantom cases planned for treatment with scanned proton beams subject to systematic set...

  10. Thermodynamics and process analysis for future economic scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Economists are increasingly interested in forecasting future costs and benefits of policies for dealing with materials/energy fluxes, polluting emissions and environmental impacts on various scales, from sectoral to global. Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models are currently popular because they project demand and industrial structure into the future, along an equilibrium path. But they are applicable only to the extent that structural changes occur in or near equilibrium, independent of radical technological (or social) change. The alternative tool for analyzing economic implications of scenario assumptions is to use Leontief-type Input-Output (I-O) models. I-O models are unable to endogenize structural shifts (changing I-O coefficients). However, this can be a virtue when considering radical rather than incremental shifts. Postulated I-O tables can be used independently to check the internal consistency of scenarios. Or I-O models can be used to generate scenarios by linking them to econometric 'macro-drivers' (which can, in principle, be CGE models). Explicit process analysis can be integrated, in principle, with I-O models. This hybrid scheme provides a natural means of satisfying physical constraints, especially the first and second laws of thermodynamics. This is important, to avoid constructing scenarios based on physically impossible processes. Process analysis is really the only available tool for constructing physically plausible alternative future I-O tables, and generating materials/energy and waste emissions coefficients. Explicit process analysis also helps avoid several problems characteristic of 'pure' CGE or I-O models, viz. (1) aggregation errors (2) inability to handle arbitrary combinations of co-product and co-input relationships and (3) inability to reflect certain non-linearities such as internal feedback loops. 4 figs., 2 tabs., 38 refs

  11. Reliability Analysis of a Green Roof Under Different Storm Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    William, R. K.; Stillwell, A. S.

    2015-12-01

    Urban environments continue to face the challenges of localized flooding and decreased water quality brought on by the increasing amount of impervious area in the built environment. Green infrastructure provides an alternative to conventional storm sewer design by using natural processes to filter and store stormwater at its source. However, there are currently few consistent standards available in North America to ensure that installed green infrastructure is performing as expected. This analysis offers a method for characterizing green roof failure using a visual aid commonly used in earthquake engineering: fragility curves. We adapted the concept of the fragility curve based on the efficiency in runoff reduction provided by a green roof compared to a conventional roof under different storm scenarios. We then used the 2D distributed surface water-groundwater coupled model MIKE SHE to model the impact that a real green roof might have on runoff in different storm events. We then employed a multiple regression analysis to generate an algebraic demand model that was input into the Matlab-based reliability analysis model FERUM, which was then used to calculate the probability of failure. The use of reliability analysis as a part of green infrastructure design code can provide insights into green roof weaknesses and areas for improvement. It also supports the design of code that is more resilient than current standards and is easily testable for failure. Finally, the understanding of reliability of a single green roof module under different scenarios can support holistic testing of system reliability.

  12. Analysis of Russian transition scenarios to innovative nuclear energy system based on thermal and fast reactors with closed nuclear fuel cycle using INPRO methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper presents the results of the analysis of modeling of Russian nuclear energy (NE) scenarios on the basis of thermal and fast reactors with closed nuclear fuel cycle (NFC). Modeling has been carried out with use of CYCLE code (SSC RF IPPE's tool) designed for analysis of Nuclear Energy System (NES) with closed NFC taking into account plutonium and minor actinides (MA) isotopic composition change during multi-recycling of fuel in fast reactors. When considering fast reactor introduction scenarios, one of important questions is to define optimal time for their introduction and related NFC's facilities. Analysis of the results obtained has been fulfilled using the key INPRO indicators for sustainable energy development. It was shown that a delay in fast reactor introduction led to serious ecological, social and finally economic risks for providing energy security and sustainable development of Russia in long-term prospects and loss of knowledge and experience in mastering innovative technologies of fast reactors and related nuclear fuel cycle. (author)

  13. Scenarios Analysis of the Energies’ Consumption and Carbon Emissions in China Based on a Dynamic CGE Model

    OpenAIRE

    Yuanying Chi; Zhengquan Guo; Yuhua Zheng; Xingping Zhang

    2014-01-01

    This paper investigates the development trends and variation characteristics of China’s economy, energy consumption and carbon emissions from 2007 to 2030, and the impacts on China’s economic growth, energy consumption, and carbon emissions under the carbon tax policy scenarios, based on the dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The results show that during the simulation period, China’s economy will keep a relatively high growth rate, but the growth rate will slow down un...

  14. Analysis of similarity between small-break loss-of-coolant accident scenarios based on identification and ranking of basic phenomena

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A methodology for quantifying the overall similarity between simulated transients in nuclear power plants is proposed. Transients are compared quantitatively by using methods based on fast Fourier transform and correlation coefficient function, in which calculated time-dependent parameters which describe dominant basic phenomena are assigned appropriate weighting factors. The methodology is presented by describing its application to the comparison of a simulated 5.08 cm (2'') small-break loss-of-coolant accident to accident scenarios with different break sizes. (author)

  15. E-maintenance Scenarios Based on Augmented Reality Software Architecture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benbelkacem, S.; Zenati-Henda, N.; Belhocine, M.

    2008-06-01

    This paper presents architecture of augmented reality for e-maintenance application. In our case, the aim is not to develop a vision system based on augmented reality concept, but to show the relationship between the different actors in the proposed architecture and to facilitate maintenance of the machine. This architecture allows implementing different scenarios which give to the technician possibilities to intervene on a breakdown device with a distant expert help. Each scenario is established according to machine parameters and technician competences. In our case, a hardware platform is designed to carry out e-maintenance scenarios. An example of e-maintenance scenario is then presented.

  16. Modeling and Composing Scenario-Based Requirements with Aspects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Araujo, Joao; Whittle, Jon; Ki, Dae-Kyoo

    2004-01-01

    There has been significant recent interest, within the Aspect-Oriented Software Development (AOSD) community, in representing crosscutting concerns at various stages of the software lifecycle. However, most of these efforts have concentrated on the design and implementation phases. We focus in this paper on representing aspects during use case modeling. In particular, we focus on scenario-based requirements and show how to compose aspectual and non-aspectual scenarios so that they can be simulated as a whole. Non-aspectual scenarios are modeled as UML sequence diagram. Aspectual scenarios are modeled as Interaction Pattern Specifications (IPS). In order to simulate them, the scenarios are transformed into a set of executable state machines using an existing state machine synthesis algorithm. Previous work composed aspectual and non-aspectual scenarios at the sequence diagram level. In this paper, the composition is done at the state machine level.

  17. Analysis of the 2011 Negawatt scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This document discusses the 2011 Negawatt scenario which, through a 'sobriety and efficiency' approach, divides by two the final energy consumption, and nearly by three the primary energy demand. This decrease concerns all activity sectors, but more particularly the housing and office building sector by means of an extended insulation programme. In the transport sector, the decrease is obtained by a reduction of use, but above all, by technological advances. Fossil energies are nearly discarded. The strong increase of renewable energies is mainly due to biomass which is used for heating purposes, but essentially under the form of methane which replaces oil in transports. Wind and photovoltaic energy ensures 28% of primary energy production and about 60% of electricity production. The feasibility of these measures is analyzed

  18. The need for and use of socio-economic scenarios for climate change analysis: A new approach based on shared socio-economic pathways

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kriegler, Elmar; O' Neill, Brian; Hallegatte, Stephane; Kram, Tom; Lempert, Rob; Moss, Richard H.; Wilbanks, Thomas

    2012-10-01

    A new set of socioeconomic scenarios (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) are described that provide a set of global narratives and socio-economic pathways to pair with climate model scenarios developed using the new Representative Concentration Pathways.

  19. Verifying real-time systems against scenario-based requirements

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Kim Guldstrand; Li, Shuhao; Nielsen, Brian;

    2009-01-01

    We propose an approach to automatic verification of real-time systems against scenario-based requirements. A real-time system is modeled as a network of Timed Automata (TA), and a scenario-based requirement is specified as a Live Sequence Chart (LSC). We define a trace-based semantics for a kerne...... problem. We show how this is accomplished in the context of the Uppaal model checker....

  20. China ASON Network Migration Scenarios and Their Quantitative Analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Guoying Zhang; Soichiro Araki; Itaru Nishioka; Yoshihiko Suemura

    2003-01-01

    This paper proposes two migration scenarios from China rin g networks to ASON mesh networks . In our quantitative analysis with ASON/GMPLS simulator, a subnetwork protection scheme achieved best balanced performance in resource utilization and restoration time.

  1. China ASON Network Migration Scenarios and Their Quantitative Analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Soichiro; Araki; Itaru; Nishioka; Yoshihiko; Suemura

    2003-01-01

    This paper proposes two migration scenarios from China ring networks to ASON mesh networks. In our quantitative analysis with ASON/GMPLS simulator, a subnetwork protection scheme achieved best balanced performance in resource utilization and restoration time.

  2. Model Performance Evaluation and Scenario Analysis (MPESA) Tutorial

    Science.gov (United States)

    This tool consists of two parts: model performance evaluation and scenario analysis (MPESA). The model performance evaluation consists of two components: model performance evaluation metrics and model diagnostics. These metrics provides modelers with statistical goodness-of-fit m...

  3. Usability standards meet scenario-based design: challenges and opportunities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vincent, Christopher J; Blandford, Ann

    2015-02-01

    The focus of this paper is on the challenges and opportunities presented by developing scenarios of use for interactive medical devices. Scenarios are integral to the international standard for usability engineering of medical devices (IEC 62366:2007), and are also applied to the development of health software (draft standard IEC 82304-1). The 62366 standard lays out a process for mitigating risk during normal use (i.e. use as per the instructions, or accepted medical practice). However, this begs the question of whether "real use" (that which occurs in practice) matches "normal use". In this paper, we present an overview of the product lifecycle and how it impacts on the type of scenario that can be practically applied. We report on the development and testing of a set of scenarios intended to inform the design of infusion pumps based on "real use". The scenarios were validated by researchers and practitioners experienced in clinical practice, and their utility was assessed by developers and practitioners representing different stages of the product lifecycle. These evaluations highlighted previously unreported challenges and opportunities for the use of scenarios in this context. Challenges include: integrating scenario-based design with usability engineering practice; covering the breadth of uses of infusion devices; and managing contradictory evidence. Opportunities included scenario use beyond design to guide marketing, to inform purchasing and as resources for training staff. This study exemplifies one empirically grounded approach to communicating and negotiating the realities of practice. PMID:25460202

  4. Contention-based forwarding for street scenarios

    OpenAIRE

    Füßler, Holger; Hartenstein, Hannes; Mauve, Martin; Effelsberg, Wolfgang; Widmer, Jörg

    2004-01-01

    In this paper, we propose to apply Contention-Based Forwarding (CBF) to Vehicular Ad Hoc Networks (VANETs). CBF is a greedy position-based forwarding algorithm that does not require proactive transmission of beacon messages. CBF performance is analyzed using realistic movement patterns of vehicles on a highway. We show by means of simulation that CBF as well as traditional position-based routing (PBR) achieve a delivery rate of almost 100 given that connectivity ...

  5. An analysis on a highly degraded ATWS scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper presents the result of the analysis using the MAAP code to model a highly degraded ATWS scenario. The analysis was performed as a part of the overall Accident Management Program evaluation under development by Taiwan Power Company for its Chinshan Nuclear Power Station (CSNPS). It is concluded that the CSNPS has the capability to withstand this highly degraded ATWS scenario if its current Emergency Operating Procedures are executed during the event

  6. A cognitive task analysis of the SGTR scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This report constitutes a contribution to the NKS/RAK-1:3 project on Integrated Sequence Analysis. Following the meeting at Ringhals, the work was proposed to be performed by the following three steps: Task 1. Cognitive Task Analysis of the E-3 procedure. Task 2. Evaluation and revision of task analysis with Ringhals/KSU experts. Task 3. Integration with simulator data. The Cognitive Task Analysis (CTA) of Task 1 uses the Goals-Means Task Analysis (GMTA) method to identify the sequence of tasks and task steps necessary to achieve the goals of the procedure. It is based on material supplied by Ringhals, which describes the E-3 procedure, including the relevant ES and ECA procedures. The analysis further outlines the cognitive demands profile associated with individual task steps as well as with the task as a whole, as an indication of the nominal task load. The outcome of the cognitive task analysis provides a basis for proposing an adequate event tree. This report describes the results from Task 1. The work has included a two-day meeting between the three contributors, as well as the exchange of intermediate results and comments throughout the period. After the initial draft of the report was prepared, an opportunity was given to observe the SGTR scenario in a full-scope training simulator, and to discuss the details with the instructors. This led to several improvements from the initial draft. (EG)

  7. Large scale scenario analysis of future low carbon energy options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In this study, we use a multi-model framework to examine a set of possible future energy scenarios resulting from R&D investments in Solar, Nuclear, Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), Bio-fuels, Bio-electricity, and Batteries for Electric Transportation. Based on a global scenario analysis, we examine the impact on the economy of advancement in energy technologies, considering both individual technologies and the interactions between pairs of technologies, with a focus on the role of uncertainty. Nuclear and CCS have the most impact on abatement costs, with CCS mostly important at high levels of abatement. We show that CCS and Bio-electricity are complements, while most of the other energy technology pairs are substitutes. We also examine for stochastic dominance between R&D portfolios: given the uncertainty in R&D outcomes, we examine which portfolios would be preferred by all decision-makers, regardless of their attitude toward risk. We observe that portfolios with CCS tend to stochastically dominate those without CCS; and portfolios lacking CCS and Nuclear tend to be stochastically dominated by others. We find that the dominance of CCS becomes even stronger as uncertainty in climate damages increases. Finally, we show that there is significant value in carefully choosing a portfolio, as relatively small portfolios can dominate large portfolios. - Highlights: • We examine future energy scenarios in the face of R&D and climate uncertainty. • We examine the impact of advancement in energy technologies and pairs of technologies. • CCS complements Bio-electricity while most technology pairs are substitutes. • R&D portfolios without CCS are stochastically dominated by portfolios with CCS. • Higher damage uncertainty favors R&D development of CCS and Bio-electricity

  8. Scenario analysis on future electricity supply and demand in Japan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Under continuing policies of CO2 emissions reduction, it is crucial to consider scenarios for Japan to realize a safe and clean future electricity system. The development plans for nuclear power and renewable energy - particularly solar and wind power - are being reconsidered in light of the Fukushima nuclear accident. To contribute to this, in the present study, three electricity supply scenarios for 2030 are proposed according to different future nuclear power development policies, and the maximum penetration of renewable energy generation is pursued. On the other side of the equation, three electricity demand scenarios are also proposed considering potential energy saving measures. The purpose of the study is to demonstrate quantitatively the technological, economic and environmental impacts of different supply policy selections and demand assumptions on future electricity systems. The scenario analysis is conducted using an input–output hour-by-hour simulation model subject to constraints from technological, economic and environmental perspectives. The obtained installed capacity mix, power generation mix, CO2 emissions, and generation cost of the scenarios were inter-compared and analyzed. The penetration of renewable energy generation in a future electricity system in Japan, as well as its relationship with nuclear power share was uncovered. -- Highlights: ► Scenario analysis is conducted on future electricity systems under different supply policies and demand assumptions. ► Scenario analysis is conducted using a input–output hour-by-hour simulation model for real-time demand-supply balance. ► The technological, economic and environmental impacts of supply policies and demand assumptions on future electricity systems are studied. ► The maximum penetration of renewable energy generation is pursued in the scenario analysis using the hour-by-hour simulation. ► The relationship between the penetration levels of renewable energy and nuclear power

  9. The colour scenario: an interdisciplinary analysis for a interdisciplinary topic

    OpenAIRE

    Vezzani, Valentina; Bisson, Mario

    2010-01-01

    The topic of this research is about the exploration of the actual colour scenario, from an Italian perspective analysis to an international one, with the aim to understand the characteristics and the needs of a complex system of disciplines and relationships that depends on the interdisciplinary character of the matter. The understanding of the colour scenario, then representing it, is the first step to understand and promote a common colour knowledge, comprehensible and useful for all those ...

  10. Scenario analysis in spatial impact assessment:a methodological approach

    OpenAIRE

    Torrieri, F.; Nijkamp, P.

    2009-01-01

    This paper introduces the concept of Spatial or Territorial Impact Assessment as a new tool for balanced urban or regional planning from a long-term sustainability perspective. It then argues that modern scenario methods may be a useful complement to pro-active and future oriented urban or regional strategic thinking. A cognitive interactive model for scenario analysis is next presented and its advantages are outlined.

  11. Socio-economic Scenario Development for Climate Change Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    KRIEGLER Elmar; O'Neill, Brian-C; Hallegatte, Stéphane; Kram, Tom; Moss, Richard-H; Lempert, Robert; Wilbanks, Thomas J

    2010-01-01

    Socio-economic scenarios constitute an important tool for exploring the long-term consequences of anthropogenic climate change and available response options. They have been applied for different purposes and to a different degree in various areas of climate change analysis, typically in combination with projections of future climate change. Integrated assessment modeling (IAM) has used them to develop greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios for the 21st century and to investigate strategies...

  12. Pre-Test Analysis of Major Scenarios for ATLAS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Euh, Dong-Jin; Choi, Ki-Yong; Park, Hyun-Sik; Kwon, Tae-Soon

    2007-02-15

    A thermal-hydraulic integral effect test facility, ATLAS was constructed at the Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI). The ATLAS is a 1/2 reduced height and 1/288 volume scaled test facility based on the design features of the APR1400. The simulation capability of the ATLAS for major design basis accidents (DBAs), including a large-break loss-of-coolant (LBLOCA), DVI line break and main steam line break (MSLB) accidents, is evaluated by the best-estimate system code, MARS, with the same control logics, transient scenarios and nodalization scheme. The validity of the applied scaling law and the thermal-hydraulic similarity between the ATLAS and the APR1400 for the major design basis accidents are assessed. It is confirmed that the ATLAS has a capability of maintaining an overall similarity with the reference plant APR1400 for the major design basis accidents considered in the present study. However, depending on the accident scenarios, there are some inconsistencies in certain thermal hydraulic parameters. It is found that the inconsistencies are mainly due to the reduced power effect and the increased stored energy in the structure. The present similarity analysis was successful in obtaining a greater insight into the unique design features of the ATLAS and would be used for developing the optimized experimental procedures and control logics.

  13. Pre-Test Analysis of Major Scenarios for ATLAS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A thermal-hydraulic integral effect test facility, ATLAS was constructed at the Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI). The ATLAS is a 1/2 reduced height and 1/288 volume scaled test facility based on the design features of the APR1400. The simulation capability of the ATLAS for major design basis accidents (DBAs), including a large-break loss-of-coolant (LBLOCA), DVI line break and main steam line break (MSLB) accidents, is evaluated by the best-estimate system code, MARS, with the same control logics, transient scenarios and nodalization scheme. The validity of the applied scaling law and the thermal-hydraulic similarity between the ATLAS and the APR1400 for the major design basis accidents are assessed. It is confirmed that the ATLAS has a capability of maintaining an overall similarity with the reference plant APR1400 for the major design basis accidents considered in the present study. However, depending on the accident scenarios, there are some inconsistencies in certain thermal hydraulic parameters. It is found that the inconsistencies are mainly due to the reduced power effect and the increased stored energy in the structure. The present similarity analysis was successful in obtaining a greater insight into the unique design features of the ATLAS and would be used for developing the optimized experimental procedures and control logics

  14. Long-range scenarios for climate change. Policy analysis. Proceedings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scenarios are conceivable future states of affairs given certain assumptions about the present and the course of events in the intervening period. They are particularly useful for investigating uncertainty and its consequences for decision making. Scenarios explicitly recognize that our ability to forecast the future course of events is very limited. Accordingly they identify the key areas of uncertainty and look at the consequences of different outcomes in those key areas. From the wide-ranging discussion held at the workshop, the criteria and principles listed below were developed to guide the process of scenario building in the particular context of climate change policy analysis. Such criteria should also help to avoid the inappropriate use of scenarios by policy makers and others. (author)

  15. Scenario analysis for integrated water resources planning and management under uncertainty in the Zayandehrud river basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Safavi, Hamid R.; Golmohammadi, Mohammad H.; Sandoval-Solis, Samuel

    2016-08-01

    The goal of this study is to develop and analyze three scenarios in the Zayandehrud river basin in Iran using a model already built and calibrated by Safavi et al. (2015) that has results for the baseline scenario. Results from the baseline scenario show that water demands will be supplied at the cost of depletion of surface and ground water resources, making this scenario undesirable and unsustainable. Supply Management, Demand Management, and Meta (supply and demand management) scenarios are the selected scenarios in this study. They are to be developed and declared into the Zayandehrud model to assess and evaluate the imminent status of the basin. Certain strategies will be employed for this purpose to improve and rectify the current management policies. The five performance criteria of time-based and volumetric reliability, resilience, vulnerability, and maximum deficit will be employed in the process of scenario analysis and evaluation. The results obtained from the performance criteria will be summed up into a so-called 'Water Resources Sustainability Index' to facilitate comparison among the likely trade-offs. Uncertainties arising from historical data, management policies, rainfall-runoff model, demand priorities, and performance criteria are considered in the proposed conceptual framework and modeled by appropriate approaches. Results show that the Supply Management scenario can be used to improve upon the demand supply but that it has no tangible effects on the improvement of the resources in the study region. In this regard, the Demand Management scenario is found to be more effective than the water supply one although it still remains unacceptable. Results of the Meta scenario indicate that both the supply and demand management scenarios must be applied if the water resources are to be safeguarded against degradation and depletion. In other words, the supply management scenario is necessary but not adequate; rather, it must be coupled to the demand

  16. Verifying real-time systems against scenario-based requirements

    OpenAIRE

    Larsen K.G.; Li S; Nielsen B; Pusinskas S.

    2009-01-01

    We propose an approach to automatic verification of real-time systems against scenario-based requirements. A real-time system is modeled as a network of Timed Automata (TA), and a scenario-based requirement is specified as a Live Sequence Chart (LSC). We define a trace-based semantics for a kernel subset of the LSC language. By equivalently translating an LSC chart into an observer TA and then non-intrusively composing this observer with the original system model, the problem of verifying a r...

  17. Technology and Greenhouse Gas Emissions: An IntegratedScenario Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koomey, J.G.; Latiner, S.; Markel, R.J.; Marnay, C.; Richey, R.C.

    1998-09-01

    This report describes an analysis of possible technology-based scenarios for the U.S. energy system that would result in both carbon savings and net economic benefits. We use a modified version of the Energy Information Administration's National Energy Modeling System (LBNL-NEMS) to assess the potential energy, carbon, and bill savings from a portfolio of carbon saving options. This analysis is based on technology resource potentials estimated in previous bottom-up studies, but it uses the integrated LBNL-NEMS framework to assess interactions and synergies among these options. The analysis in this paper builds on previous estimates of possible "technology paths" to investigate four major components of an aggressive greenhouse gas reduction strategy: (1) the large scale implementation of demand-side efficiency, comparable in scale to that presented in two recent policy studies on this topic; (2) a variety of "alternative" electricity supply-side options, including biomass cofiring, extension of the renewable production tax credit for wind, increased industrial cogeneration, and hydropower refurbishment. (3) the economic retirement of older and less efficient existing fossil-find power plants; and (4) a permit charge of $23 per metric ton of carbon (1996 $/t),l assuming that carbon trading is implemented in the US, and that the carbon permit charge equilibrates at this level. This level of carbon permit charge, as discussed later in the report, is in the likely range for the Clinton Administration's position on this topic.

  18. Control Strategy Scenarios for the Alien Lionfish Pterois volitans in Chinchorro Bank (Mexican Caribbean: Based on Semi-Quantitative Loop Analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marco Ortiz

    Full Text Available Ecological and eco-social network models were constructed with different levels of complexity in order to represent and evaluate management strategies for controlling the alien species Pterois volitans in Chinchorro bank (Mexican Caribbean. Levins´s loop analysis was used as a methodological framework for assessing the local stability (considered as a component of sustainability of the modeled management interventions represented by various scenarios. The results provided by models of different complexity (models 1 through 4 showed that a reduction of coral species cover would drive the system to unstable states. In the absence of the alien lionfish, the simultaneous fishing of large benthic epifaunal species, adult herbivorous fish and adult carnivorous fish could be sustainable only if the coral species present high levels of cover (models 2 and 3. Once the lionfish is added to the simulations (models 4 and 5, the analysis suggests that although the exploitation or removal of lionfish from shallow waters may be locally stable, it remains necessary to implement additional and concurrent human interventions that increase the holistic sustainability of the control strategy. The supplementary interventions would require the implementation of programs for: (1 the restoration of corals for increasing their cover, (2 the exploitation or removal of lionfish from deeper waters (decreasing the chance of source/sink meta-population dynamics and (3 the implementation of bans and re-stocking programs for carnivorous fishes (such as grouper that increase the predation and competition pressure on lionfish (i.e. biological control. An effective control management for the alien lionfish at Chinchorro bank should not be optimized for a single action plan: instead, we should investigate the concurrent implementation of multiple strategies.

  19. Control Strategy Scenarios for the Alien Lionfish Pterois volitans in Chinchorro Bank (Mexican Caribbean): Based on Semi-Quantitative Loop Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ortiz, Marco; Rodriguez-Zaragoza, Fabián; Hermosillo-Nuñez, Brenda; Jordán, Ferenc

    2015-01-01

    Ecological and eco-social network models were constructed with different levels of complexity in order to represent and evaluate management strategies for controlling the alien species Pterois volitans in Chinchorro bank (Mexican Caribbean). Levins´s loop analysis was used as a methodological framework for assessing the local stability (considered as a component of sustainability) of the modeled management interventions represented by various scenarios. The results provided by models of different complexity (models 1 through 4) showed that a reduction of coral species cover would drive the system to unstable states. In the absence of the alien lionfish, the simultaneous fishing of large benthic epifaunal species, adult herbivorous fish and adult carnivorous fish could be sustainable only if the coral species present high levels of cover (models 2 and 3). Once the lionfish is added to the simulations (models 4 and 5), the analysis suggests that although the exploitation or removal of lionfish from shallow waters may be locally stable, it remains necessary to implement additional and concurrent human interventions that increase the holistic sustainability of the control strategy. The supplementary interventions would require the implementation of programs for: (1) the restoration of corals for increasing their cover, (2) the exploitation or removal of lionfish from deeper waters (decreasing the chance of source/sink meta-population dynamics) and (3) the implementation of bans and re-stocking programs for carnivorous fishes (such as grouper) that increase the predation and competition pressure on lionfish (i.e. biological control). An effective control management for the alien lionfish at Chinchorro bank should not be optimized for a single action plan: instead, we should investigate the concurrent implementation of multiple strategies. PMID:26114745

  20. Control Strategy Scenarios for the Alien Lionfish Pterois volitans in Chinchorro Bank (Mexican Caribbean): Based on Semi-Quantitative Loop Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ortiz, Marco; Rodriguez-Zaragoza, Fabián; Hermosillo-Nuñez, Brenda; Jordán, Ferenc

    2015-01-01

    Ecological and eco-social network models were constructed with different levels of complexity in order to represent and evaluate management strategies for controlling the alien species Pterois volitans in Chinchorro bank (Mexican Caribbean). Levins´s loop analysis was used as a methodological framework for assessing the local stability (considered as a component of sustainability) of the modeled management interventions represented by various scenarios. The results provided by models of different complexity (models 1 through 4) showed that a reduction of coral species cover would drive the system to unstable states. In the absence of the alien lionfish, the simultaneous fishing of large benthic epifaunal species, adult herbivorous fish and adult carnivorous fish could be sustainable only if the coral species present high levels of cover (models 2 and 3). Once the lionfish is added to the simulations (models 4 and 5), the analysis suggests that although the exploitation or removal of lionfish from shallow waters may be locally stable, it remains necessary to implement additional and concurrent human interventions that increase the holistic sustainability of the control strategy. The supplementary interventions would require the implementation of programs for: (1) the restoration of corals for increasing their cover, (2) the exploitation or removal of lionfish from deeper waters (decreasing the chance of source/sink meta-population dynamics) and (3) the implementation of bans and re-stocking programs for carnivorous fishes (such as grouper) that increase the predation and competition pressure on lionfish (i.e. biological control). An effective control management for the alien lionfish at Chinchorro bank should not be optimized for a single action plan: instead, we should investigate the concurrent implementation of multiple strategies. PMID:26114745

  1. Creative Classrooms through Game-Based Role-Play Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gjedde, Lisa

    2014-01-01

    studies a framework that anchors the curriculum in game-based role-play scenarios and offers affordances for the learners to immerse themselves in the multiple perspectives of the roles. In this way of introducing problem based learning in immersive narrative environments, the learners are provided with...

  2. Analysis of uncertainty propagation in nuclear fuel cycle scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nuclear scenario studies model nuclear fleet over a given period. They enable the comparison of different options for the reactor fleet evolution, and the management of the future fuel cycle materials, from mining to disposal, based on criteria such as installed capacity per reactor technology, mass inventories and flows, in the fuel cycle and in the waste. Uncertainties associated with nuclear data and scenario parameters (fuel, reactors and facilities characteristics) propagate along the isotopic chains in depletion calculations, and through out the scenario history, which reduces the precision of the results. The aim of this work is to develop, implement and use a stochastic uncertainty propagation methodology adapted to scenario studies. The method chosen is based on development of depletion computation surrogate models, which reduce the scenario studies computation time, and whose parameters include perturbations of the depletion model; and fabrication of equivalence model which take into account cross-sections perturbations for computation of fresh fuel enrichment. Then the uncertainty propagation methodology is applied to different scenarios of interest, considering different options of evolution for the French PWR fleet with SFR deployment. (author)

  3. A possible scenario for the mechanism of high-Tc superconductivity based on experimental data

    OpenAIRE

    Mourachkine, A.

    2007-01-01

    The issue of the mechanism of high-Tc superconductivity remains open. In this contribution, we propose a new scenario for the mechanism of superconductivity in cuprates based on analysis of experimental data, mainly tunneling, neutron scattering and muon-spin-relaxation data, made earlier (see e.g. Mod. Phys. Lett. B 19 (2005) 743). A specific feature of this scenario is the mechanism of the establishment of long-range phase coherence among Cooper pairs, based on recent experimental data obta...

  4. Fairness and cost-effectiveness of CO2 emission reduction targets in the European Union member states. An analysis based on scenario studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Member States of the European Union (EU) have agreed upon a common position in the international negotiations on the limitation of greenhouse gas emissions. The total commitment of the EU is the result of differentiated emission targets for the individual Member States. In this study the results of 4 recent scenario studies on CO2 emission reduction are used to assess the fairness and the cost-effectiveness of the differentiated targets. Here, fairness is measured by the average cost per capita in a country to reach the emission target. Cost-effectiveness is based on the marginal cost of emission reduction. It is noted that there are limitations in the comparability of the country results. Further, the coverage of the EU Member States is not complete in all 4 studies. Robust conclusions could thus not be drawn for all countries. Nonetheless, there are strong indications that the efforts to achieve the emission reduction targets are not evenly distributed. Based on the results the countries can be divided into four groups with different burdens to achieve reduction of CO2 emissions: (a) countries that will probably be faced with above average burdens: Sweden, Italy and the Netherlands; (b) countries that will presumably be faced with above average burdens but for which limited information is available: Austria and Denmark; (c) countries that will probably be faced with average burdens or for which the relative efforts are indistinct: Germany, Portugal, Belgium, Finland and Luxembourg; and (d) countries that will probably be faced with below average burdens: United Kingdom, France, Spain, Ireland and Greece. 1 fig., 12 tabs., 6 refs

  5. Scenario-based Training : Director’s Cut

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Peeters, M.M.M.; Bosch, K. van den; Meyer, J.J.C.; Neerincx, M.A.

    2011-01-01

    Research regarding autonomous learning shows that freeplay does not result in optimal learning. Combining scenario-based training with intelligent agent technology offers the possibility to create autonomous training enriched with automated adaptive support delivered by a director agent. We conducte

  6. Scenario Analysis and System Dynamics in New Emerging Technology Research: Case Mobile Peer-to-Peer Content Distribution

    OpenAIRE

    Karikoski, Juuso; Heikkinen, Mikko; Hämmäinen, Heikki

    2009-01-01

    Julkaisun kokoteksti on luettavissa vain Aalto-tunnuksilla. Please note that access to the fulltext is limited to Aalto staff and students. This paper studies the use of scenario analysis andsystem dynamics in researching mobile peer-to-peer contentdistribution as a new emerging technology. Scenario analysisbounds the uncertainty related to the alternative futures of thetechnology by defining different scenarios. System dynamics isused to build a quantitative model based on the scenario...

  7. Scenario analysis for transuranic transmutation by using fast reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Symbiotic fast reactor scenarios with the existing nuclear power systems have been analyzed from the viewpoint of a transuranics transmutation. In this study, a sodium-cooled fast reactor (SFR) and an accelerator driven system (ADS) are considered as representative fast reactor systems. For a comparative analysis of the fuel cycle options, the once-through fuel cycle was at first analyzed based on the current nuclear power plant construction plan and the currently operating nuclear power plants such as the pressurized water reactor (PWR) and the Canada deuterium uranium (CANDU) reactor. After setting up a once-through fuel cycle model, the SFR and ADS scenarios were modeled based on the same nuclear energy demand prediction used for the once-through fuel cycle. Then important fuel cycle parameters such as the amount of the spent fuel and corresponding plutonium, minor actinides and fission products inventories were estimated and compared with those of the once-through fuel cycle. In this fuel cycle model, the Pyro process is assumed for all the spent fuel recycling. In the process all the actinides are recovered and some fraction of the fission product is removed. The deployment fractions of the fast reactor are 25, 10 and 20% for the periods of 2030-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100, respectively. In order to feed the fast reactor systems, it was also assumed that the PWR and CANDU spent fuels are reprocessed from 2025 and the fast reactor spent fuel reprocessing begins in 2035. The fuel cycle calculation was performed by the DYMOND code, which has been used for an analysis of the Generation-IV road map studies. The analysis results of the once-through fuel cycle can be summarized as follows: - The nuclear power demand is expected to grow to 25.2 GWe in the year 2100. - The total spent fuel inventory is expected to be 65000 t in 2100. - The transuranics and fission product inventories are estimated to be 660 and 2390 t, respectively, in 2100. The fast reactor cycle

  8. Tarapur atomic power station: analysis of station blackout scenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Contractor, A.D.; Lele, H.G.; Vaze, K.K. [Bhabha Atomic Research Centre, Mumbai (India). Reactor Safety Division; Srivastava, A.

    2015-03-15

    India is currently operating two BWR built by General Electric Company. The design features of these reactors are similar to the Fukushima's BWR except some better containment features in Indian BWR. This paper discusses the enveloping scenario of station blackout of infinite duration with no operator action and no component failure. The paper describes the details of modelling the TAPS-BWR plant model including SCDAP modelling of reactor core in system code RELAP5 and further thermal hydraulic safety assessment of station blackout scenario. The analysis brought out effectively the response of the plant to this high-pressure severe accident scenario. The time line of the severe accident progression will give details of various stages of accident progression along with hydrogen generation, which will be useful in evolving suitable severe accident management guidelines.

  9. Tarapur atomic power station: analysis of station blackout scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    India is currently operating two BWR built by General Electric Company. The design features of these reactors are similar to the Fukushima's BWR except some better containment features in Indian BWR. This paper discusses the enveloping scenario of station blackout of infinite duration with no operator action and no component failure. The paper describes the details of modelling the TAPS-BWR plant model including SCDAP modelling of reactor core in system code RELAP5 and further thermal hydraulic safety assessment of station blackout scenario. The analysis brought out effectively the response of the plant to this high-pressure severe accident scenario. The time line of the severe accident progression will give details of various stages of accident progression along with hydrogen generation, which will be useful in evolving suitable severe accident management guidelines.

  10. Development on quantitative safety analysis method of accident scenario. The automatic scenario generator development for event sequence construction of accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This study intends to develop a more sophisticated tool that will advance the current event tree method used in all PSA, and to focus on non-catastrophic events, specifically a non-core melt sequence scenario not included in an ordinary PSA. In the non-catastrophic event PSA, it is necessary to consider various end states and failure combinations for the purpose of multiple scenario construction. Therefore it is anticipated that an analysis work should be reduced and automated method and tool is required. A scenario generator that can automatically handle scenario construction logic and generate the enormous size of sequences logically identified by state-of-the-art methodology was developed. To fulfill the scenario generation as a technical tool, a simulation model associated with AI technique and graphical interface, was introduced. The AI simulation model in this study was verified for the feasibility of its capability to evaluate actual systems. In this feasibility study, a spurious SI signal was selected to test the model's applicability. As a result, the basic capability of the scenario generator could be demonstrated and important scenarios were generated. The human interface with a system and its operation, as well as time dependent factors and their quantification in scenario modeling, was added utilizing human scenario generator concept. Then the feasibility of an improved scenario generator was tested for actual use. Automatic scenario generation with a certain level of credibility, was achieved by this study. (author)

  11. An inquiry into the potential of scenario analysis for dealing with uncertainty in strategic environmental assessment in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Strategic environmental assessment (SEA) inherently needs to address greater levels of uncertainty in the formulation and implementation processes of strategic decisions, compared with project environmental impact assessment. The range of uncertainties includes internal and external factors of the complex system that is concerned in the strategy. Scenario analysis is increasingly being used to cope with uncertainty in SEA. Following a brief introduction of scenarios and scenario analysis, this paper examines the rationale for scenario analysis in SEA in the context of China. The state of the art associated with scenario analysis applied to SEA in China was reviewed through four SEA case analyses. Lessons learned from these cases indicated the word 'scenario' appears to be abused and the scenario-based methods appear to be misused due to the lack of understanding of an uncertain future and scenario analysis. However, good experiences were also drawn on, regarding how to integrate scenario analysis into the SEA process in China, how to cope with driving forces including uncertainties, how to combine qualitative scenario storylines with quantitative impact predictions, and how to conduct assessments and propose recommendations based on scenarios. Additionally, the ways to improve the application of this tool in SEA were suggested. We concluded by calling for further methodological research on this issue and more practices.

  12. Integrated Analysis of Market Transformation Scenarios with HyTrans

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Greene, David L [ORNL; Leiby, Paul Newsome [ORNL; Bowman, David Charles [ORNL

    2007-06-01

    This report presents alternative visions of the transition of light-duty vehicle transportation in the United States from petroleum to hydrogen power. It is a supporting document to the U.S. Department of Energy's Summary Report, "Analysis of the Transition to a Hydrogen Economy and the Potential Hydrogen Infrastructure Requirements" (U.S. DOE, 2007). Three alternative early transition scenarios were analyzed using a market simulation model called HyTrans. The HyTrans model simultaneously represents the behavior of fuel suppliers, vehicle manufacturers and consumers, explicitly recognizing the importance of fuel availability and the diversity of vehicle choices to consumers, and dependence of fuel supply on the existence of market demand. Competitive market outcomes are simulated by means of non-linear optimization of social surplus through the year 2050. The three scenarios specify different rates and geographical distributions of market penetration for hydrogen fuel cell vehicles from 2012 through 2025. Scenario 1 leads to 2 million vehicles on U.S. roads by 2025, while Scenarios 2 and 3 result in 5 million and 10 million FCVs in use by 2025, respectively. The HyTrans model "costs out" the transition scenarios and alternative policies for achieving them. It then tests whether the scenarios, together with the achievement of the DOE's technology goals for fuel cell vehicles and hydrogen infrastructure technologies could lead to a sustainable transition to hydrogen powered transportation. Given the achievement of DOE's ambitious technology goals, all three scenarios appear to lead to a sustainable transition to hydrogen. In the absence of early transition deployment effort, no transition is likely to begin before 2045. The cumulative costs of the transition scenarios to the government range from $8 billion to $45 billion, depending on the scenario, the policies adopted and the degree of cost-sharing with industry. In the absence of carbon constraining

  13. Organic Farming Scenarios: Operational Analysis and Costs of implementing Innovative Technologies

    OpenAIRE

    Sørensen, Claus G.; Madsen, Niels A.; Jacobsen, Brian H.

    2005-01-01

    The objective of this study has been to design a number of farm scenarios representing future plausible and internally consistent organic farming enterprises based on milk, pig, and plant production and use these farm scenarios as the basis for the generation of generalised knowledge on labour and machinery input and costs. Also, an impact analysis and feasibility study of introducing innovative technologies into the organic production system has been invoked. The labour demand for the ...

  14. Scenario-based Storm Surge Vulnerability Assessment of Catanduanes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suarez, J. K. B.

    2015-12-01

    After the devastating storm surge effect of Typhoon Haiyan, the public recognized an improved communication about risks, vulnerabilities and what is threatened by storm surge. This can be provided by vulnerability maps which allow better visual presentations and understanding of the risks and vulnerabilities. Local implementers can direct the resources needed for protection of these areas. Moreover, vulnerability and hazard maps are relevant in all phases of disaster management designed by the National Disaster Risk Reduction Council (NDRRMC) - disaster preparedness, prevention and mitigation and response and recovery and rehabilitation. This paper aims to analyze the vulnerability of Catanduanes, a coastal province in the Philippines, to storm surges in terms of four parameters: population, built environment, natural environment and agricultural production. The vulnerability study relies on the storm surge inundation maps based on the Department of Science and Technology Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards' (DOST-Project NOAH) proposed four Storm Surge Advisory (SSA) scenarios (1-2, 3, 4, and 5 meters) for predicting storm surge heights. To determine total percent affected for each parameter elements, an overlay analysis was performed in ArcGIS Desktop. Moreover, vulnerability and hazard maps are generated as a final output and a tool for visualizing the impacts of storm surge event at different surge heights. The result of this study would help the selected province to know their present condition and adapt strategies to strengthen areas where they are found to be most vulnerable in order to prepare better for the future.

  15. Systems analysis of past, present, and future chemical terrorism scenarios.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hoette, Trisha Marie

    2012-03-01

    Throughout history, as new chemical threats arose, strategies for the defense against chemical attacks have also evolved. As a part of an Early Career Laboratory Directed Research and Development project, a systems analysis of past, present, and future chemical terrorism scenarios was performed to understand how the chemical threats and attack strategies change over time. For the analysis, the difficulty in executing chemical attack was evaluated within a framework of three major scenario elements. First, historical examples of chemical terrorism were examined to determine how the use of chemical threats, versus other weapons, contributed to the successful execution of the attack. Using the same framework, the future of chemical terrorism was assessed with respect to the impact of globalization and new technologies. Finally, the efficacy of the current defenses against contemporary chemical terrorism was considered briefly. The results of this analysis justify the need for continued diligence in chemical defense.

  16. Reliable freestanding position-based routing in highway scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galaviz-Mosqueda, Gabriel A; Aquino-Santos, Raúl; Villarreal-Reyes, Salvador; Rivera-Rodríguez, Raúl; Villaseñor-González, Luis; Edwards, Arthur

    2012-01-01

    Vehicular Ad Hoc Networks (VANETs) are considered by car manufacturers and the research community as the enabling technology to radically improve the safety, efficiency and comfort of everyday driving. However, before VANET technology can fulfill all its expected potential, several difficulties must be addressed. One key issue arising when working with VANETs is the complexity of the networking protocols compared to those used by traditional infrastructure networks. Therefore, proper design of the routing strategy becomes a main issue for the effective deployment of VANETs. In this paper, a reliable freestanding position-based routing algorithm (FPBR) for highway scenarios is proposed. For this scenario, several important issues such as the high mobility of vehicles and the propagation conditions may affect the performance of the routing strategy. These constraints have only been partially addressed in previous proposals. In contrast, the design approach used for developing FPBR considered the constraints imposed by a highway scenario and implements mechanisms to overcome them. FPBR performance is compared to one of the leading protocols for highway scenarios. Performance metrics show that FPBR yields similar results when considering freespace propagation conditions, and outperforms the leading protocol when considering a realistic highway path loss model. PMID:23202159

  17. Space mission scenario development and performance analysis tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kordon, Mark; Baker, John; Gilbert, John; Hanks, David

    2004-01-01

    This paper discusses a new and innovative approach for a rapid spacecraft multi-disciplinary performance analysis using a tool called the Mission Scenario Development Workbench (MSDW). To meet the needs of new classes of space missions, analysis tools with proven models were developed and integrated into a framework to enable rapid trades and analyses between spacecraft designs and operational scenarios during the formulation phase of a mission. Generally speaking, spacecraft resources are highly constrained on deep space missions and this approach makes it possible to maximize the use of existing resources to attain the best possible science return. This approach also has the potential benefit of reducing the risk of costly design changes made later in the design cycle necessary to meet the mission requirements by understanding system design sensitivities early and adding appropriate margins. This paper will describe the approach used by the Mars Science Laboratory Project to accomplish this result.

  18. Modeling and analysis of long-term energy scenarios for sustainable strategies of Ethiopia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Senshaw, Dereje Azemraw

    2014-04-15

    from 1,313 PJ in 2010. Nevertheless, the energy intensity is expected to decrease gradually across the three scenarios, from 65MJ/$ in base year (2010) to 22, 20 and 13 MJ/$ in 2050 for BAU, Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 respectively. Importantly, under Scenario 2, the energy intensity will decrease with an average annual rate of 3,9%. Certainly, Scenario 2 has the largest capability of energy savings. The per capita primary energy consumption in Scenario 2 is the highest (at annual rate of 4.1%) and followed by Scenario 1 (3.3%) over the period. With respect to energy intensity, energy diversity and per capita consumption, BAU scenario shows is the least preferred option with highest risks related to security and diversity of supply. In Scenario 2, the proportion of oil consumption will decrease to 7.4%, i.e., lower than the values of 17.72% and 11.5% for the BAU and Scenario 1, respectively. The demand for non-conventional renewables is expected to increase significantly in all three scenarios from around 1% in 2010, to 11% 23% and 36.6% for the BAU scenario, Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 respectively over the period of 2010-2050. Overall, under Scenario 2, the degree of diversification in the total energy requirement would increase and gradually will become environmentally friendly in Ethiopia, with rapid growth in the use of alternative clean energy. The absolute CO{sub 2} emissions under the three scenarios from 2010 to 2050 will slightly increase due to the stronger economic development, which still stay within the limits of an ambitious climate change mitigation policy. Nevertheless, Scenario 2 has the lowest CO{sub 2} emission intensity, followed by the Scenario 1 and BAU scenarios. By 2050 the CO{sub 2} emissions intensities of BAU, Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 will reach 0.1, 0.08 and 0.05 kg CO{sub 2} per US$ of GDP, respectively. Overall, the results of analysis demonstrate that the alternative scenarios (Scenario 1 and Scenario 2) would result in a sustainable energy

  19. Modeling and analysis of long-term energy scenarios for sustainable strategies of Ethiopia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    ,313 PJ in 2010. Nevertheless, the energy intensity is expected to decrease gradually across the three scenarios, from 65MJ/$ in base year (2010) to 22, 20 and 13 MJ/$ in 2050 for BAU, Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 respectively. Importantly, under Scenario 2, the energy intensity will decrease with an average annual rate of 3,9%. Certainly, Scenario 2 has the largest capability of energy savings. The per capita primary energy consumption in Scenario 2 is the highest (at annual rate of 4.1%) and followed by Scenario 1 (3.3%) over the period. With respect to energy intensity, energy diversity and per capita consumption, BAU scenario shows is the least preferred option with highest risks related to security and diversity of supply. In Scenario 2, the proportion of oil consumption will decrease to 7.4%, i.e., lower than the values of 17.72% and 11.5% for the BAU and Scenario 1, respectively. The demand for non-conventional renewables is expected to increase significantly in all three scenarios from around 1% in 2010, to 11% 23% and 36.6% for the BAU scenario, Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 respectively over the period of 2010-2050. Overall, under Scenario 2, the degree of diversification in the total energy requirement would increase and gradually will become environmentally friendly in Ethiopia, with rapid growth in the use of alternative clean energy. The absolute CO2 emissions under the three scenarios from 2010 to 2050 will slightly increase due to the stronger economic development, which still stay within the limits of an ambitious climate change mitigation policy. Nevertheless, Scenario 2 has the lowest CO2 emission intensity, followed by the Scenario 1 and BAU scenarios. By 2050 the CO2 emissions intensities of BAU, Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 will reach 0.1, 0.08 and 0.05 kg CO2 per US$ of GDP, respectively. Overall, the results of analysis demonstrate that the alternative scenarios (Scenario 1 and Scenario 2) would result in a sustainable energy transitions that would shape the

  20. Experimental interpretation and code validation based on the Phebus-FP programme. Lessons learnt from the analysis of the containment scenario of FPT1 and FPT2 tests

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The phenomenological scenario of a severe accident is extremely complex. Its simulation requires specific models of a number of phenomena of different nature (i.e., materials behavior, thermal-hydraulics, aerosols, etc.) and their adequate coupling in safety computer codes. Therefore, an exhaustive and extensive validation against representative databases is mandatory. PHEBUS-FP project is, beyond any doubt, one of the more valuable data sources for this purpose. This paper summarizes the main lessons learnt from the containment simulations of FPT1 and FPT2 test. Several safety computer codes: CONTAIN 2.0, MELCOR 1.8.5 and ASTEC 1.1 have been used. This diversity has allowed a 'user-independent' cross comparison of codes and data. Boundary and initial conditions, as well as assumptions and approximations, have ensured a reliable assessment of code performance. In addition to code validation, simulations have assisted in the interpretation of experiments by showing potential experimental uncertainties of major effect in the scenario or even by pinpointing that some measured data were probably more reliable than others in these experiments. Parametric studies have been necessary to assess the effect of some of the hypotheses and approximations. (author)

  1. Quantum Gravity Scenario of Inflation based on the CMB Anisotropies

    CERN Document Server

    Hamada, K; Hamada, Ken-ji; Yukawa, Tetsuyuki

    2004-01-01

    Inflationary scenario based on a renormalizable model of conformal gravity is proposed and primordial spectrum is derived. The sharp fall off of the angular power spectra at low multipoles in the COBE and WMAP observations are explained by a dynamical scale of quantum gravity. At this scale, the universe would make a sharp transition from the quantum spacetime with conformal invariance to the classical spacetime.

  2. Analysis of the energy scenario Negawatt 2006; Analyse du scenario energetique negaWatt 2006

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Acket, C.; Bacher, P

    2006-10-15

    The association Negawatt published in 2003 an energy scenario for the France in 2050, under the name of Negawatt 2006. This document aims to analyze the scenario Negawatt with a comparison of the scenario published on the web site of SLC, Save the Climate. The authors analyzes the main three sectors: electricity, transports and residential to propose their comparison in conclusion. (A.L.B.)

  3. Robustness Analysis of Real Network Topologies Under Multiple Failure Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Manzano, M.; Marzo, J. L.; Calle, E.; Fagertun, Anna Manolova

    2012-01-01

    on topological characteristics. Recently approaches also consider the services supported by such networks. In this paper we carry out a robustness analysis of five real backbone telecommunication networks under defined multiple failure scenarios, taking into account the consequences of the loss of......Nowadays the ubiquity of telecommunication networks, which underpin and fulfill key aspects of modern day living, is taken for granted. Significant large-scale failures have occurred in the last years affecting telecommunication networks. Traditionally, network robustness analysis has been focused...

  4. The variation of health effects based on the scenarios considering release parameters and meteorological data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The variation of health effects resulting from the severe accidents of the YGN 3 and 4 nuclear power plants was examined based on scenarios considering the release parameters and meteorological data. The release parameters and meteorological data considered in making basic scenarios are release height, heat content, release time, warning time, wind speed, rainfall rate, and atmospheric stability class. The seasonal scenarios were also made in order to estimate the seasonal variation of health effects by considering seasonal characteristics of Korea. According to the results, there are large differences in consequence analysis from scenario to although an equal amount of radioactive materials is released to the atmosphere. Also, there are large differences in health effects from season to season due to distinct seasonal characteristics of Korea. Therefore, it is necessary to consider seasonal characteristics in developing optimum emergency response strategies

  5. Hybrid Modeling for Scenario-Based Evaluation of Failure Effects in Advanced Hardware-Software Designs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malin, Jane T.; Fleming, Land; Throop, David

    2001-01-01

    This paper describes an incremental scenario-based simulation approach to evaluation of intelligent software for control and management of hardware systems. A hybrid continuous/discrete event simulation of the hardware dynamically interacts with the intelligent software in operations scenarios. Embedded anomalous conditions and failures in simulated hardware can lead to emergent software behavior and identification of missing or faulty software or hardware requirements. An approach is described for extending simulation-based automated incremental failure modes and effects analysis, to support concurrent evaluation of intelligent software and the hardware controlled by the software

  6. Development and analysis of SCR requirements tables for system scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Callahan, John R.; Morrison, Jeffery L.

    1995-01-01

    We describe the use of scenarios to develop and refine requirement tables for parts of the Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS). The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is developing EOSDIS as part of its Mission-To-Planet-Earth (MTPE) project to accept instrument/platform observation requests from end-user scientists, schedule and perform requested observations of the Earth from space, collect and process the observed data, and distribute data to scientists and archives. Current requirements for the system are managed with tools that allow developers to trace the relationships between requirements and other development artifacts, including other requirements. In addition, the user community (e.g., earth and atmospheric scientists), in conjunction with NASA, has generated scenarios describing the actions of EOSDIS subsystems in response to user requests and other system activities. As part of a research effort in verification and validation techniques, this paper describes our efforts to develop requirements tables from these scenarios for the EOSDIS Core System (ECS). The tables specify event-driven mode transitions based on techniques developed by the Naval Research Lab's (NRL) Software Cost Reduction (SCR) project. The SCR approach has proven effective in specifying requirements for large systems in an unambiguous, terse format that enhance identification of incomplete and inconsistent requirements. We describe development of SCR tables from user scenarios and identify the strengths and weaknesses of our approach in contrast to the requirements tracing approach. We also evaluate the capabilities of both approach to respond to the volatility of requirements in large, complex systems.

  7. Summary report of the advanced scenario analysis for performance assessment of geological disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    First of all, with regard to the FEP information data on the Engineered Barrier System (EBS) developed by JNC, description level and content of the FEPs have been examined from various angles on the basis of the latest research information. Each content of the FEP data has been classified and modified by means of integrating descriptive items, checking detail levels and correlations with other FEPs, collating with the H12 report, and adding technical information after H12 report. Secondly, scenario-modeling process has been studied. The study has been conducted by evaluating representation of the repository system, definition of FEP properties, and process interactions based on the concept of the interaction matrix (RES format) which represents influences between physicochemical characteristics of the repository, followed by an experimental development of the actual RES interaction matrix based on the H12 report as the examination to improve the transparency, traceability and comprehensibility of the scenario analysis process. Lastly, in relation to the geological disposal system, assessment techniques have been examined for more practical scenario analysis on particularly strong perturbations. Possible conceptual models have been proposed for each of these scenarios; seismic, faulting, and dike intrusion. As a result of these researches, a future direction for advanced scenario analysis on performance assessment has been indicated, as well as associated issues to be discussed have been clarified. (author)

  8. Renewable electricity generation in Germany: A meta-analysis of mitigation scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    German energy policy targets envision a share of electricity from renewable energy sources (RES-E) of at least 80% in 2050. How can the transformation of the German electricity sector be achieved and at what costs? This paper addresses these questions by means of a meta-analysis of 10 recent model-based mitigation scenarios for Germany. It turns out that the scenarios exploit the three basic strategic options of increasing the share of RES-E – domestic RES-E generation, electricity demand reductions, and RES-E imports – to substantially different extents. Domestic RES-E generation increases in all scenarios, particularly from onshore and offshore wind. Scenarios that rely heavily on reducing electricity demand require a relatively low expansion of domestic RES-E generation. Despite detailed technical analyses, insights on the costs of the transformation remain limited. A discussion of underlying scenario assumptions reveals that it is unclear whether (i) RES-E and system integration technology development will be as cost-competitive as postulated, (ii) implicitly assumed institutional requirements will be realized, and (iii) relevant actors in the transformation process will be incentivized accordingly. Therefore, future research should pursue a thorough assessment of strategic options for transforming the German electricity system that consistently integrates technologies, institutions, and actors. - Highlights: • We analyze 10 mitigation scenarios for the Germany electricity sector. • They group into three distinct strategies for attaining high shares of renewables. • All scenarios suggest that high shares of wind onshore and offshore are necessary. • We critically discuss underlying assumption of the scenarios. • Future scenarios should consistently integrate technologies, actors and institutions

  9. Ontology-based collaborative framework for disaster recovery scenarios

    CERN Document Server

    Ramanathan, Sakkaravarthi; Drira, Khalil; Chassot, Christophe

    2012-01-01

    This paper aims at designing of adaptive framework for supporting collaborative work of different actors in public safety and disaster recovery missions. In such scenarios, firemen and robots interact to each other to reach a common goal; firemen team is equipped with smart devices and robots team is supplied with communication technologies, and should carry on specific tasks. Here, reliable connection is mandatory to ensure the interaction between actors. But wireless access network and communication resources are vulnerable in the event of a sudden unexpected change in the environment. Also, the continuous change in the mission requirements such as inclusion/exclusion of new actor, changing the actor's priority and the limitations of smart devices need to be monitored. To perform dynamically in such case, the presented framework is based on a generic multi-level modeling approach that ensures adaptation handled by semantic modeling. Automated self-configuration is driven by rule-based reconfiguration polici...

  10. Scenario Analysis. Toward a Change in the Soil Consumption Paradigm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giuseppe Mazzeo

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available The processes of urbanization affecting the modern world have seen the explosion of the city and the transformation of compact and well defined structures in agglomerations with a seamlessly expansion. This has sparked a number of social and economic consequences that have impacted on the city, on the urbanized areas, and on the surroundings. The usage of the term “sprawl” to define the process of expansion of the human agglomerations dates back to eighty years ago, about, and from that period countless researches were done on the argument, also if it is open the question about the future trends of the city; if it is clear that the expansive model is still winning, it is equally necessary to identify new models that can better interpret the needs for a new attention to the territory and its environment. For this purpose the paper explores the feasible use of the scenario analysis as tool for defining the potential evolutionary paths of the city. Particular attention is placed on the construction of de-urbanization’s scenarios, namely the set of reorganization’s hypotheses of urban structures focused on the compaction of their physical size and on the maximizing of the number of residents and users. The paper seeks to deepen the possible trajectories of de-urbanization and of urban and territorial reorganization stretched to reverse the diffusion and expansive processes at the metropolitan level. The paper initially defines the characters of the processes of urbanization, also with reference to some research’s models. The second part investigates the use of scenarios for the construction of evolutionary trends. The third, finally, examines the trends comparing the processes of urban growth and of de-urbanization.

  11. An Experiment on Graph Analysis Methodologies for Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brothers, Alan J.; Whitney, Paul D.; Wolf, Katherine E.; Kuchar, Olga A.; Chin, George

    2005-09-30

    Visual graph representations are increasingly used to represent, display, and explore scenarios and the structure of organizations. The graph representations of scenarios are readily understood, and commercial software is available to create and manage these representations. The purpose of the research presented in this paper is to explore whether these graph representations support quantitative assessments of the underlying scenarios. The underlying structure of the scenarios is the information that is being targeted in the experiment and the extent to which the scenarios are similar in content. An experiment was designed that incorporated both the contents of the scenarios and analysts’ graph representations of the scenarios. The scenarios’ content was represented graphically by analysts, and both the structure and the semantics of the graph representation were attempted to be used to understand the content. The structure information was not found to be discriminating for the content of the scenarios in this experiment; but, the semantic information was discriminating.

  12. Designing Collaborative Learning Environments Using Educational Scenarios Based on SR

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fotini Paraskeva

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available As more and more studies acknowledge that students are basic contributors to the learning process, factors such as self concept, (computer self-efficacy and self-regulation are important in enhancing human performance. Nevertheless, these learner characteristics have received little attention in the e-learning environment. This paper presents the results of a study indicating significant positive relationships between learner characteristics, such as self-concept (academic achievement and job achievement, Computer Self Efficacy (CSE and Self-Regulation (SR constructs. Acknowledging the requirement for a strong shift of students towards developing self-regulated scenarios and strategies, we suggest that collaborative e-learning environments should be designed according to the self-regulated theory and self-beliefs. As a result, in this study we present a model examining how we can design educational scenarios based on self-regulation theory in a collaborative e-learning environment. This model is a tool for conducting experiments in e-learning university courses, studying the design, development and evaluation of the collaborative learning process.

  13. In vitro Quinolones Susceptibility Analysis of Chinese Mycoplasma bovis Isolates and their Phylogenetic Scenarios based upon QRDRs of DNA Topoisomerases Revealing a Unique Transition in ParC

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Riaz Mustafa1,2,3, Jingjing Qi1,2, Xiaoliang Ba1,2, Yingyu Chen1,4, Changmin Hu1,2, Xiaole Liu1,2, Lingling Tu5, Qingjie Peng5, Huanchun Chen1,2 and Aizhen Guo1,2*

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Mycoplasma bovis can cause different systemic problems in cattle, and recently has been resulted in huge economic losses in China. In vitro susceptibilities of 26 twice sub-cultured Chinese M. bovis field isolates were determined at physiological pH including PG45 through broth micro-dilution method. Except Huanggang isolate, all isolates and PG45 were in the sensitive range for levofloxacin, lomefloxacin and ciprofloxacin, whereas, for norfloxacin and nalidixic acid, they had shown intermediate resistant and complete resistant patterns, respectively. The multiple sequence analysis revealed point mutations in QRDRs of gyrA and parC genes of Huanggang isolate resulting in amino acid substitutions at positions 83 (S-F in GyrA (E. coli numbering and 80 (S-I in ParC proteins, the latter is reported for first time in M. bovis. Conclusively, fluoroquinolones are the potential veterinary therapeutic agents for mycoplasmosis in China and resistance to these agents comes through point mutations in QRDRs of gyrA and parC genes with ParC and GyrA mutation orientation.

  14. Development of a computer tool to support scenario analysis for safety assessment of HLW geological disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In 'H12 Project to Establishing Technical Basis for HLW Disposal in Japan' a systematic approach that was based on an international consensus was adopted to develop scenarios to be considered in performance assessment. Adequacy of the approach was, in general term, appreciated through the domestic and international peer review. However it was also suggested that there were issues related to improving transparency and traceability of the procedure. To achieve this, improvement of scenario analysis method has been studied. In this study, based on an improvement method for treatment of FEP interaction a computer tool to support scenario analysis by specialists of performance assessment has been developed. Anticipated effects of this tool are to improve efficiency of complex and time consuming scenario analysis work and to reduce possibility of human errors in this work. This tool also enables to describe interactions among a vast number of FEPs and the related information as interaction matrix, and analysis those interactions from a variety of perspectives. (author)

  15. Grid modeling, analysis and simulation of different scenarios for a smart low-voltage distribution grid

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mihet-Popa, Lucian; Han, Xue; Bindner, Henrik W.; Pihl-Andersen, J.; Mehmedalic, J.

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents the modeling, analysis and simulation of a low-voltage distribution grid model based on the real data designed for evaluation of a future smart grid. The grid model is built measuring the distribution lines' length and considering the cable dimensions and lengths, the grid age....... The model is implemented in NEPLAN and DIgSILENT Power Factory and different scenarios are developed and analyzed. A time series simulation is conducted for a specific scenario with a comparison between different voltage and load profiles along the feeders....

  16. Map-Based Channel Model for Urban Macrocell Propagation Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jose F. Monserrat

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The evolution of LTE towards 5G has started and different research projects and institutions are in the process of verifying new technology components through simulations. Coordination between groups is strongly recommended and, in this sense, a common definition of test cases and simulation models is needed. The scope of this paper is to present a realistic channel model for urban macrocell scenarios. This model is map-based and takes into account the layout of buildings situated in the area under study. A detailed description of the model is given together with a comparison with other widely used channel models. The benchmark includes a measurement campaign in which the proposed model is shown to be much closer to the actual behavior of a cellular system. Particular attention is given to the outdoor component of the model, since it is here where the proposed approach is showing main difference with other previous models.

  17. Scenario aggregation and analysis via Mean-Shift Methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A new generation of dynamic methodologies is being developed for nuclear reactor probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) which explicitly account for the time element in modeling the probabilistic system evolution and use numerical simulation tools to account for possible dependencies between failure events. The dynamic event tree (DET) approach is one of these methodologies. One challenge with dynamic PRA methodologies is the large amount of data they produce which may be difficult to analyze without appropriate software tools. The concept of 'data mining' is well known in the computer science community and several methodologies have been developed in order to extract useful information from a dataset with a large number of records. Using the dataset generated by the DET analysis of the reactor vessel auxiliary cooling system (RVACS) of an ABR-1000 for an aircraft crash recovery scenario and the Mean-Shift Methodology for data mining, it is shown how clusters of transients with common characteristics can be identified and classified. (authors)

  18. Scenarios analysis based on CLUE model in of land use change Jiangxi Province by 2030%基于CLUE模型的2030年江西省土地利用变化情景分析

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    郭延凤; 于秀波; 姜鲁光; 查良松

    2012-01-01

    引入“一切照常情景”、“规划情景”和“优化情景”三种生态系统变化情景,采用CLUE模型,对江西省2001~2030年的土地利用空间变化进行模型模拟,并用2005年的土地利用现状图对模拟结果进行了验证。研究表明:在“一切照常情景”中,耕地持续减少;建设用地急剧增加;林地面积基本保持稳定。在“规划情景”中,耕地持续增加;建设用地略有增加,并在2020年后基本保持不变;林地总面积变化不大,但是高密度森林面积比重增大;河流和湖泊面积略微减少,湿地面积大幅增加。在“优化情景”中,森林增加趋势较“规划情景”有所减缓,河流和湖泊,湿地均有显著增加。本研究对研究区今后的土地利用规划修编和土地可持续性管理具有重要的指导意义。%Using CLUE (The Conversion of Land Use and its Effects) model based on GIS spatial analysis and statistics, this paper introduced three scenarios ("Business as Usual Scenario", "Planned Scenario" and "Optimal Scenario") to simulate the land use spatial change in Jiangxi Province from 2001 to 2030. The paper has developed three scenarios on land use change to conduct a comparative analysis. Scenarios provide an effective tool to assess the risks of current land use patterns and the policy options, and offer more comprehensive and meaningful scientific information to policy-makers from different approaches by taking various factors into account. As a result, scenario analysis plays a critical role in this study, where nine types of land use are identified to show what might take place under different scenarios. This model is applied to simulate the future land use scenarios in the next three decades, and to validate the simulated results with the land use map in 2005. The validation suggests that the model has accurately positioned the simulated results to an appropriate spatial

  19. Carbon reduction scenarios for 2050: An explorative analysis of public preferences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper presents an analysis of public preferences for a low carbon future UK and compares them with three future scenarios proposed by the UK government based on data from 10,983 self-selected participants who engaged in the UK Department of Energy and Climate Change ‘My2050’ online simulation. Participants expressed a stronger preference for demand-side options than for supply-side ones. They also chose fuel switching (to electricity) and technical energy efficiency measures above more behaviour focused options. Renewable energy options (wind, solar, marine and hydro) were preferred to other low carbon supply options (nuclear power, carbon capture and storage), with offshore wind power more popular than onshore. Nuclear power was the least popular generation option. Acceptability of the government′s three proposed scenarios was tested by comparing these scenarios with the research findings. Greatest support was suggested for the two scenarios emphasising business greenness, home energy efficiency, electrification of home heating and travel behaviour. The lowest level of support was demonstrated for the scenario based on significant growth in nuclear power with minimal increases in energy efficiency. Despite issues regarding the representivity of the sampled respondents, the work demonstrates the possibility of using outputs from the tool to assess publically preferred pathways. - Highlights: • Examination of >10,000 initial responses to UK government ‘My 2050’ simulation. • A number of patterns were identified in the responses. • Participants preferred renewable energy options to other low carbon supply options. • The alignment of public preferences with government scenarios was assessed. • The value of scenario simulations for public engagement was demonstrated with caveats

  20. 40 CFR 68.25 - Worst-case release scenario analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 15 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Worst-case release scenario analysis... scenario analysis. (a) The owner or operator shall analyze and report in the RMP: (1) For Program 1 processes, one worst-case release scenario for each Program 1 process; (2) For Program 2 and 3 processes:...

  1. Scenario analysis of false indication in computer-control systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Highlights: ► A new failure mode and effect for safety-critical systems is proposed. ► False indication is the most dreadful kind of partial failures. ► A model-based simulation approach to generate failure scenarios is proposed. ► Simulation results showed that multiple errors may cause undesired consequences. ► An assertion-based method to detect false indication problems is provided. -- Abstract: Computer control may cause additional failure modes and effects that are new to analogue systems. False indication is one such failure mode that may bring unknown risks to a system. False indication refers to the problem when part of a system fails while other processes still work, and the failure is not revealed to operators. This paper presents a model-based simulation approach to systematically generate potential false indication and unintended consequences. Experiments showed that once a false indication occurs, it may have drastic effects on system safety. False indication can mislead the operator to perform adverse actions or no action. Therefore, we propose an assertion-based detection method to alleviate such failures. Our assertions contain process/device dependencies, timing relations and physical conservation rules. With these assertions, the operator may be alerted at run time. The proposed technique can reduce false indication problem. Moreover, it can also be used to assist the system design.

  2. The future role of alternative powertrains and fuels in the German transport sector. A model based scenario analysis with respect to technical, economic and environmental aspects with a focus on road transport

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The transport sector is facing the challenges of satisfying the ever increasing transport demand on the one hand and achieving greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction targets without compromising economic development on the other hand. There are various alternative fuels and powertrains which might play a role in the future of the German transport sector. Amongst these options, biofuels are considered to help lower GHG emissions. However, they are severely criticized to create an additional strain for the energy system and particularly for the transport sector with land area requirement for energy crop production, which may imply a competition with food production. This study aims to assess the future role of alternative fuels and powertrains in the German transport sector in terms of their costs, efficiencies, GHG emissions and land area requirement for energy crops. To fulfill this aim, a techno-economic analysis of all relevant fuels and powertrain options was performed and a model based approach was employed. The utilized model belongs to the TIMES (The Integrated MARKAL EFOM System) family and is a bottom-up linear cost optimization energy system model. A scenario analysis was employed in order to assess the effect of different technological, economic, environmental and political conditions on the overall system. The results of the scenario analysis indicated that the transport system will still be dominated by conventional powertrains in 2030. Alternative powertrains are projected to play only a secondary role until 2030. It is not expected that fuel cell or battery electric passenger cars will be introduced into the market until 2030 in Germany. Nevertheless, hybrid electric powertrains have to be used in the German passenger car sector under ambitious GHG emission reduction targets and high oil prices. The introduction of alternative powertrains (such as hybrid electric and fuel cell powertrain) is much more likely in the bus sector (especially for public

  3. Interactive Design Method Based on Needs Analysis Scenario-Based Research Mission%基于使用场景进行任务需求分析的交互设计方法研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张晓东; 隋涌

    2016-01-01

    The design is for human services, prior to doing the design to the “person” of the basic factors. The mobile application product design interaction design changes to object to object tradition, directly to the user’s behavior as a design object. Method and usage scenarios are very easy to understand the description and analysis of user behavior, It is usually combined with “5W+H” to carry on the analysis: “Who, When, Where, What, Why, How”.%设计是为人服务的,在做设计之前要想好“人”这个基本因素。而移动应用产品设计中的交互设计改变了以物为对象的传统,直接把用户的使用行为作为设计对象。而使用场景是一种非常容易理解的分析和描述用户行为的方法,它通常结合六何分析法来进行分析:谁(Who),什么时间(When),在哪里(Where),发生了什么( What),为什么要这样( Why),如何解决( How)。

  4. Deriving future oriented research and competence requirements based on scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sonne, Anne-Mette; Harmsen, Hanne; Jensen, Birger Boutrup

    overnight. Consequently companies need to try to be foresighted with regards to what is required to operate successfully not only today but also tomorrow and in five and ten years. Hence, companies are faced with trying to assess how to best prepare themselves for a tomorrow that they can only guess about...... scenarios for this purpose. Most scenario studies report mostly on the scenario construction, were as we want to focus on the suitability of scenario methods as a mean of deducting competence requirements and research needs. Also scenario techniques have mostly been used on either a company level or a macro......The key to a company's survival lies in its ability to adapt itself to an ever changing world. A company's knowledge and competencies must be fitted to the requirements of the environment in which it operates. However, the kind of competencies that ensures a company's survival are not acquired...

  5. Renewable energy technology portfolio planning with scenario analysis: A case study for Taiwan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper presents the results of a case study of applying a systematic and proven process of technology portfolio planning with the use of scenario analysis to renewable energy developments in Taiwan. The planning process starts with decision values of technology development based on a survey of society leaders. It then generates, based on expert opinions and literature search, a set of major technology alternatives, which in this study include: wind energy, photovoltaic, bio-energy, solar thermal power, ocean energy, and geothermal energy. Through a committee of technical experts with diversified professional backgrounds, the process in this study next constructs three scenarios ('Season in the Sun', 'More Desire than Energy', and 'Castle in the Air') to encompass future uncertainties in the relationships between the technology alternatives and the decision values. Finally, through a second committee of professionals, the process assesses the importance and risks of these alternative technologies and develops a general strategic plan for the renewable energy technology portfolio that is responsive and robust for the future scenarios. The most important contributions of this paper are the clear description of the systematic process of technology portfolio planning and scenario analysis, the detailed demonstration of their application through a case study on the renewable energy development in Taiwan, and the valuable results and insights gained from the application.

  6. Critical Paths and Sensitivities towards a Zero Emission Vehicle Fleet in Germany - A Scenario Based Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Propfe, Bernd; Schmid, Stephan; Friedrich, Horst

    2011-01-01

    Based on a detailed analysis on how the availability of charging infrastructure influences the technical suitability of electric vehicles for customer needs, we assess critical paths and probable outcomes for the future composition of the German passenger vehicle fleet. In three different market scenarios several technical as well as political options for developing the German market towards a low carbon fleet are analyzed. Eventually, a comparison between the assumptions made and the German ...

  7. Using Groupware to Build a Scenario-Based Early Warning System

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mullekom, T.L. van; Vennix, J.A.M.

    2004-01-01

    Scenario analysis has been used as a technique to support strategy formulation for several decades. During scenario analyses, the effects of different possible futures (scenarios) on the performance of an organization are assessed. Moreover, actions are formulated to deal with these effects. This an

  8. Analysis and Comparison of 24 GHz cmWave Radio Propagation in Urban and Suburban Scenarios

    OpenAIRE

    Rodriguez, Ignacio; Portela Lopes de Almeida, Erika; Abreu, Renato; Lauridsen, Mads; Loureiro, Alexandre; Mogensen, Preben Elgaard

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents a measurement-based comparison of cm-wave propagation in urban and suburban scenarios at 24 GHz with transmitter antennas located above rooftop level. Different sets of directional measurements, exploring the full azimuth and the range from -30 to +30 degrees in elevation, were performed with horn antennas located close to street level, in order to explore the spatial characteristics of the channel in both LOS and NLOS conditions. The statistical analysis of different dire...

  9. Comparative advantage of Vietnam's rice sector under different liberalisation scenarios: a policy analysis matrix (PAM) study

    OpenAIRE

    Nguyen, Manh Hai; Heidhues, Franz

    2004-01-01

    The rapidly changing global economic environment and domestic economic reforms in Viet-nam have brought the issue of comparative advantage of the rice sector to the forefront. In recent years, Vietnam has had to compete in an increasingly competitive rice export market. This paper examines the fluctuations in the comparative advantage of Vietnamese rice production based on different scenarios of trade liberalisation and economic reform in Viet-nam. To do this, a Policy Analysis Matrix (PAM) w...

  10. EMI Risk Management with the Threat Scenario, Effect, and Criticality Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sabath, F.

    EMI risk assessment is a process for identifying, analyzing, and developing mitigation strategies for risks caused by electromagnetic interferences (EMI). The EMI risk assessment incorporates risk analysis and risk management, i.e., it combines systematic processes for risk identification, and evaluation, and how to deal with these risks. This chapter introduces a novel methodology for EMI risk assessment at system level, the Threat Scenario, Effect, and Criticality Analysis (TSECA). The TSECA is based on the general principle of the well-established Failure Mode, Effects, and Criticality Analysis (FMECA), which has been modified to include.

  11. Scenario-based design: A method for connecting information system design with public health operations and emergency management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reeder, Blaine; Turner, Anne M

    2011-01-01

    Responding to public health emergencies requires rapid and accurate assessment of workforce availability under adverse and changing circumstances. However, public health information systems to support resource management during both routine and emergency operations are currently lacking. We applied scenario-based design as an approach to engage public health practitioners in the creation and validation of an information design to support routine and emergency public health activities. Methods: Using semi-structured interviews we identified the information needs and activities of senior public health managers of a large municipal health department during routine and emergency operations. Results: Interview analysis identified twenty-five information needs for public health operations management. The identified information needs were used in conjunction with scenario-based design to create twenty-five scenarios of use and a public health manager persona. Scenarios of use and persona were validated and modified based on follow-up surveys with study participants. Scenarios were used to test and gain feedback on a pilot information system. Conclusion: The method of scenario-based design was applied to represent the resource management needs of senior-level public health managers under routine and disaster settings. Scenario-based design can be a useful tool for engaging public health practitioners in the design process and to validate an information system design. PMID:21807120

  12. Scenario analysis of the nuclear power's role in future zero-carbon electricity system in Japan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The realization of a zero-carbon electricity system is of vital importance to a future zero-carbon energy system and society, and nuclear power is expected to contribute to this much more than intermittent, complicated and costly renewald energies in the future in Japan. Therefore, in the present study, the role of nuclear power in Japan's future zero-carbon electricity system was studied using scenario analysis methods. Furthermore, technical feasibility analysis was conducted for electricity systems of the proposed scenarios in terms of reliability for the fluctuations of both daily and seasonal electrical demand and supply using an hour by hour simulation. The results show that nuclear power will contribute at least 60% of electricity production, and the whole systems were proven to be technically feasible with the help of EV batteries and hydrogen for daily and seasonal electricity storages respectively, operated based on smart gird control technologies. (author)

  13. Integrated physics analysis of plasma start-up scenario of helical reactor FFHR-d1

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goto, T.; Miyazawa, J.; Sakamoto, R.; Seki, R.; Suzuki, C.; Yokoyama, M.; Satake, S.; Sagara, A.; The FFHR Design Group

    2015-06-01

    1D physics analysis of the plasma start-up scenario of the large helical device (LHD)-type helical reactor FFHR-d1 was conducted. The time evolution of the plasma profile is calculated using a simple model based on the LHD experimental observations. A detailed assessment of the magnetohydrodynamic equilibrium and neo-classical energy loss was conducted using the integrated transport analysis code TASK3D. The robust controllability of the fusion power was confirmed by feedback control of the pellet fuelling and a simple staged variation of the external heating power with a small number of simple diagnostics (line-averaged electron density, edge electron density and fusion power). A baseline operation control scenario (plasma start-up and steady-state sustainment) of the FFHR-d1 reactor for both self-ignition and sub-ignition operation modes was demonstrated.

  14. Method-Based Higher Education in Sustainability: The Potential of the Scenario Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard Beecroft

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Both sustainability and education are challenging process-oriented objectives. When the aim is to combine both notions, as in Higher Education in Sustainability (HES, it is indispensable to first establish a common ground between them. In this paper, we characterise this common ground in terms of four aspects: future orientation, normativity, global perspective, and theory engaged in practice. Based on an analysis of the common ground, one method that is well-established in a wide range of sustainability sciences shows high potential for use in HES because it covers all four aspects in detail: the scenario method. We argue that a didactical reconstruction of the scenario method is necessary to utilise its potential and develop adequate forms of teaching in higher education. The scenario method is used to construct and analyse a set of alternative future developments to support decisions that have to be made in the present. Didactical reconstruction reveals a spectrum of objectives for which the scenario method can be employed: (1 projection; (2 teleological planning and (3 an explorative search for possibilities not yet considered. By studying and experimenting with this spectrum of objectives, students in HES can develop fundamental reflexive competencies in addressing the future in different ways that are relevant for both sustainability and education.

  15. Hydrogen Financial Analysis Scenario Tool (H2FAST). Web Tool User's Manual

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bush, B. [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Penev, M. [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Melaina, M. [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Zuboy, J. [Independent Consultant, Golden, CO (United States)

    2015-05-11

    The Hydrogen Financial Analysis Scenario Tool (H2FAST) provides a quick and convenient indepth financial analysis for hydrogen fueling stations. This manual describes how to use the H2FAST web tool, which is one of three H2FAST formats developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). Although all of the formats are based on the same financial computations and conform to generally accepted accounting principles (FASAB 2014, Investopedia 2014), each format provides a different level of complexity and user interactivity.

  16. Nonlinear seismic analysis of CANDU containment structure subjected to scenario earthquakes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In this study, the seismic safety of a CANDU containment structure is estimated by performing the nonlinear seismic analysis for the scenario earthquakes. The lumped mass model of the containment building was developed for a nonlinear dynamic time history analysis. The tri-linear skeleton curve was used for the nonlinear behavior of the prestressed concrete containment building. In order to estimate the inelastic nonlinear response of the containment, the maximum point oriented model was used for the hysteretic rule of the shear deformation. Three kinds of earthquake ground motions which represent the design earthquake ground motion for the Korean nuclear power plants, the probability based scenario earthquakes for the Korean nuclear power plant sites and the 30 set of real near-fault earthquake records were used as the input motion. The seismic response of the containment for the design earthquake is compared with the responses for the probability based scenario earthquake and the near-fault earthquake record. The floor response of the structure was estimated to evaluate the seismic safety of the safety related equipment installed in the building. (authors)

  17. Development of a GIS-based Scenario Analysis System for Pesticide Groundwater Risk Assessment in China%我国农药地下水环境风险评估场景体系的建立

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    林绿; 覃志豪; 李文娟

    2014-01-01

    根据国际通用的标准场景和环境脆弱性概念,利用GIS技术,以我国气象、土壤、农业生产等数据为基础,构建农药环境风险评估过程“现实中最糟糕的情况”。针对旱地作物和地下水这一环境系统,将我国划分为6个农药地下水环境风险评估场景区,并在此基础上构建了11个标准场景点,从而形成针对旱地作物的我国农药地下水环境风险评估场景体系。利用欧盟农药环境暴露模型PEARL测试该场景体系,运行结果显示该场景体系科学可行。该场景体系的建立既为运用定量模型进行我国农药环境风险评估奠定了重要基础,也为我国农药环境风险管理、农药登记管理工作提供了技术支持和科学依据。%Pesticide environmental risk assessment is a key part of pesticide registration process. Here we applied the concept of standard scenario system developed by the European Union(EU)to groundwater risk assessment of pesticides used in dryland crops. Precipita-tion, temperature, soil organic matter and pesticide application ways were all considered as the main factors affecting environmental behav-iors and soil concentrations of pesticides. Based on meteorological, soil and agricultural production data, a GIS approach was adopted to es-tablish the standard scenario systems. They consisted of 6 scenario zones and 11 standard scenarios. The PEARL model developed by the EU for simulation of pesticide environmental risk was employed to test the established scenarios. The simulation showed pesticide Aldicarb had high environmental risk but Atrazin and Oxadixyl was relatively safe. These results show that the established scenarios would be useful for enhancing the efficiency of pesticide registration.

  18. 40 CFR 68.28 - Alternative release scenario analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    .... 68.28 Section 68.28 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR... alternative release scenarios: (1) The five-year accident history provided in § 68.42; and (2) Failure... applicable as part of current practices. Proprietary models that account for the modeling conditions may...

  19. Commercial Aircraft Emission Scenario for 2020: Database Development and Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sutkus, Donald J., Jr.; Baughcum, Steven L.; DuBois, Douglas P.; Wey, Chowen C. (Technical Monitor)

    2003-01-01

    This report describes the development of a three-dimensional database of aircraft fuel use and emissions (NO(x), CO, and hydrocarbons) for the commercial aircraft fleet projected to 2020. Global totals of emissions and fuel burn for 2020 are compared to global totals from previous aircraft emission scenario calculations.

  20. Scenario based outdoor simulation in pre-hospital trauma care using a simple mannequin model

    OpenAIRE

    Grier Gareth; Davies Gareth; Habig Karel; Bredmose Per P; Lockey David J

    2010-01-01

    Abstract Introduction We describe a system of scenario-based training using simple mannequins under realistic circumstances for the training of pre-hospital care providers. Methods A simple intubatable mannequin or student volunteers are used together with a training version of the equipment used on a routine basis by the pre-hospital care team (doctor + paramedic). Training is conducted outdoors at the base location all year round. The scenarios are led by scenario facilitators who are predo...

  1. Study on the scenario of the fire incident and related analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    On March 11,1997, Bituminization Demonstration Facility (BDF) of PNC Tokai Works made fire and explosion incident. As soon as the Incident Investigation Committee was established and began its activity just after the incident, we PNC also began our investigation of the damage, operational records, and everything considered useful to study cause of the incident to contribute to the committee. The cause is not yet completely clarified, but it is now believed that the fire occurred as a result of several unfavorable operational condition changes and that the cause is so complicated. Such operational condition changes are slower feed rate of waste solution, higher extruder torque, higher extruder temperature, introduction of precipitation from the bottom of waste solution vessel, and so on. Based on the investigation and study of much data, an assumable scenario has been developed. This report describes PNC 's view, as of middle October 1997, on the scenario of the fire incident and result of related analysis. (authors)

  2. Attack Interference in Non-Collaborative Scenarios for Security Protocol Analysis [Extended Version

    CERN Document Server

    Fiazza, M Camilla; Viganò, Luca

    2011-01-01

    In security protocol analysis, the traditional choice to consider a single Dolev-Yao attacker is supported by the fact that models with multiple collaborating Dolev-Yao attackers have been shown to be reducible to models with one Dolev-Yao attacker. In this paper, we take a fundamentally different approach and investigate the case of multiple non-collaborating attackers. After formalizing the framework for multi-attacker scenarios, we show with a case study that concurrent competitive attacks can interfere with each other. We then present a new strategy to defend security protocols, based on active exploitation of attack interference. The paper can be seen as providing two proof-of-concept results: (i) it is possible to exploit interference to mitigate protocol vulnerabilities, thus providing a form of protection to protocols; (ii) the search for defense strategies requires scenarios with at least two attackers.

  3. Joint Environmental and Economical Analysis of Wastewater Treatment Plants Control Strategies: A Benchmark Scenario Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Montse Meneses

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, a joint environmental and economic analysis of different Wastewater Treatment Plant (WWTP control strategies is carried out. The assessment is based on the application of the Life Cycle Assessment (LCA as a method to evaluate the environmental impact and the Benchmark Simulation Model No. 1 (BSM1. The BSM1 is taken as the benchmark scenario used to implement the control strategies. The Effluent Quality Index (EQI and the Overall Cost Index (OCI are two indicators provided by BSM1 and used to evaluate the plant’s performance from the effluent quality and the economic points of view, respectively. This work conducts a combined analysis and assessment of ten different control strategies defined to operate a wastewater treatment plant. This analysis includes the usual economic and performance indexes provided by BSM1 joined with the LCA analysis that determines the environmental impact linked to each one of the considered control strategies. It is shown how to get an overall evaluation of the environmental effects by using a normalized graphical representation that can be easily used to compare control strategies from the environmental impact point of view. The use of only the BSM1 indexes provides an assessment that leads to a clustering of control strategies according to the cost/quality tradeoff they show. Therefore, regarding the cost/quality tradeoff, all strategies in the same group are almost equal and do not provide an indication on how to proceed in order to select the appropriate one. It is therefore shown how the fact of adding a new, complementary, evaluation (LCA based allows either to reinforce a decision that could be taken solely on the basis of the EQI/OCI tradeoff or to select one control strategy among the others.

  4. Model-based Evaluation of Location-based Relaying Policies in a Realistic Mobile Indoor Scenario

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jimmy Jessen; Olsen, Rasmus Løvenstein; Madsen, Tatiana Kozlova;

    2012-01-01

    developed Markov Chain model for a realistic indoor scenario that is based on ray-tracing enriched measurements from the WHERE2 project. These results are furthermore compared to results obtained using an idealistic path loss model, and it is shown that the performance impact of node mobility and...

  5. Scenario analysis to account for photovoltaic generation uncertainty in distribution grid reconfiguration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chittur Ramaswamy, Parvathy; Deconinck, Geert; Pillai, Jayakrishnan Radhakrishna

    2013-01-01

    the uncertainty in PV generation. This is possible because the PV generation values for a given hour during different days are taken into account by means of defining various scenarios when finding out the optimum configuration. Non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm (NSGA-II) used in this paper...... the proposed strategy of the scenario analysis called the Internal method, final non-dominated solutions (configurations) will have a relative acceptable performance in all scenarios. The use of scenario analysis helps in reducing the number of switches that needs to be installed in order to cater for...

  6. Benchmark Study on Nuclear Fuel Cycle Transition Scenarios - Analysis Codes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Under the auspices of the NEA Nuclear Science Committee (NSC), the Working Party on Scientific Issues of the Fuel Cycle (WPFC) has been established to co-ordinate scientific activities regarding various existing and advanced nuclear fuel cycles, including advanced reactor systems, associated chemistry and flowsheets, development and performance of fuel and materials, accelerators and spallation targets. The WPFC has different expert groups to cover a wide range of scientific fields in the nuclear fuel cycle. The Expert Group on Fuel Cycle Transition Scenarios Studies was created in 2003 to study R and D needs and relevant technology for an efficient transition from current to future advanced reactor fuel cycles. The objectives of the expert group are to (1) assemble and organise institutional, technical, and economics information critical to the understanding of the issues involved in transitioning from current fuel cycles to long-term sustainable fuel cycles or a phase-out of the nuclear enterprise and (2) provide a framework for assessing specific national needs related to that transition. After reviewing national, regional or worldwide transition scenarios, the expert group performed a benchmark study to compare the existing codes in terms of capabilities, modelling and results. The benchmark was conducted in two phases: (1) depletion calculations for PWR UOX, PWR MOX and fast reactor calculations and (2) transition calculation using various scenario codes (COSI, FAMILY21, VISION, EVOLCODE and DESAE) using three different transition scenarios (once-through, limited plutonium recycling in LWRs and plutonium and minor actinides recycling in fast reactors). The comparison mainly focused on the mass flow and the composition of heavy elements depending on time, i.e. natural uranium needs, enrichment needs, fresh fuel fabrication needs, fuel irradiation, inventory of spent fuel and nuclear materials, reprocessing needs, etc

  7. Infectious disease, development, and climate change, A scenario analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Tol, R.S.J.; Ebi, K L; Yohe, G. W.

    2007-01-01

    We study the effects of development and climate change on infectious disease in Sub-Saharan Africa. Infant mortality and infectious disease are close related, but there are better data for the former. In an international cross-section, per capita income, literacy, and absolute poverty significantly affect infant mortality. We use scenarios of these three determinants, and of climate change to project the future incidence of malaria, assuming it to change proportionally to infant mortality. Ma...

  8. Biomethane production system: Energetic analysis of various scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Bin; Zhang, Xiangping; Bao, Di; Xu, Yajing; Zhang, Suojiang; Deng, Liyuan

    2016-04-01

    The energy consumption models of biomethane production system were established, which are more rigorous and universal than the empirical data reported by previous biomethane system energetic assessment work. The energy efficiencies of different scenarios considering factors such as two digestion modes, two heating modes of digester, with or without heat exchange between slurry and feedstock, and four crude biogas upgrading technologies were evaluated. Results showed the scenario employing thermophilic digestion and high pressure water scrubbing technology, with heat exchange between feedstock and slurry, and heat demand of digester supplied by the energy source outside the system has the highest energy efficiency (46.5%) and lowest energy consumption (13.46 MJth/Nm(3) CH4), while scenario employing mesophilic digestion and pressure swing adsorption technology, without heat exchange and heat demand of digester supplied by combusting the biogas produced inside the system has the lowest energy efficiency (15.8%) and highest energy consumption (34.90 MJth/Nm(3) CH4). PMID:26855289

  9. Analysis of disruption scenarios and their possible mitigation in ITER

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Database analyses have been carried out to derive physics guidelines for the shortest current quench time and their waveforms as well as the product of halo fraction with toroidal peaking factor arising from disruptions in ITER. Several representative disruption scenarios are specified. Disruption simulations with the DINA code and electromagnetic load (EM) analyses with 3D finite element method (FEM) code are performed for these scenarios. Reasonable margins are confirmed in the forces on in-vessel components due to induced eddy and halo currents for these representative scenarios. It is noted that an increase in the current decay time by a factor of 1.5-2 can reduce the force due to eddy currents significantly at the expense of small increase of halo currents. This condition can be realized by injection of (1-2)x1024 atoms of neon without generating runaway electrons. In the massive injection scheme, the response time can be very fast, and the mitigation for only a small fraction of the total number of disruptions (≤ (3-4)%) is missed, while the force on the gas inlet valve becomes high (≥300 kg). In the moderate injection case, the response time is rather slow (≥100 ms) and the mitigation for a substantial fraction of the total number of disruptions (40-50)% is missed, while the force on the inlet valve can be easily handled. (author)

  10. "The Strawberry Caper": Using Scenario-Based Problem Solving to Integrate Middle School Science Topics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonda, Rebecca L.; DeHart, Kyle; Ashman, Tia-Lynn; Legg, Alison Slinskey

    2015-01-01

    Achieving a deep understanding of the many topics covered in middle school biology classes is difficult for many students. One way to help students learn these topics is through scenario-based learning, which enhances students' performance. The scenario-based problem-solving module presented here, "The Strawberry Caper," not only…

  11. Risk analysis for confined space entries: Critical analysis of four tools applied to three risk scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burlet-Vienney, Damien; Chinniah, Yuvin; Bahloul, Ali; Roberge, Brigitte

    2016-06-01

    Investigation reports of fatal confined space accidents nearly always point to a problem of identifying or underestimating risks. This paper compares 4 different risk analysis tools developed for confined spaces by applying them to 3 hazardous scenarios. The tools were namely 1. a checklist without risk estimation (Tool A), 2. a checklist with a risk scale (Tool B), 3. a risk calculation without a formal hazard identification stage (Tool C), and 4. a questionnaire followed by a risk matrix (Tool D). Each tool's structure and practical application were studied. Tools A and B gave crude results comparable to those of more analytic tools in less time. Their main limitations were lack of contextual information for the identified hazards and greater dependency on the user's expertise and ability to tackle hazards of different nature. Tools C and D utilized more systematic approaches than tools A and B by supporting risk reduction based on the description of the risk factors. Tool D is distinctive because of 1. its comprehensive structure with respect to the steps suggested in risk management, 2. its dynamic approach to hazard identification, and 3. its use of data resulting from the risk analysis. PMID:26864350

  12. Scenario Analysis, Decision Trees and Simulation for Cost Benefit Analysis of the Cargo Screening Process

    OpenAIRE

    Sherman, Galina; Siebers, Peer-Olaf; Aickelin, Uwe; Menachof, David

    2013-01-01

    In this paper we present our ideas for conducting a cost benefit analysis by using three different methods: scenario analysis, decision trees and simulation. Then we introduce our case study and examine these methods in a real world situation. We show how these tools can be used and what the results are for each of them. Our aim is to conduct a comparison of these different probabilistic methods of estimating costs for port security risk assessment studies. Methodologically, we are trying ...

  13. Highway Electrification And Automation Technologies - Regional Impacts Analysis Project: Phase I: Baseline Scenario Data Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Scag; Path

    1993-01-01

    The Highway Electrification and Automation Technologies Regional Impacts Analysis Project addresses the transportation-related problems of freeway congestion, air pollution, and dependence on fossil fuels in southern California. This report presents a documentation of the basis for the impacts analysis. It contains sections on data collected, baseline forecast for 2025, and electrification and automation specification scenarios. This report constitutes the final report for Phase I of the proj...

  14. Risk assessment of groundwater pollution using sensitivity analysis and a worst-case scenario analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Huysmans, Marijke; Madarasz, Tamas; Dassargues, Alain

    2006-01-01

    This paper illustrates how sensitivity analysis and a worst-case scenario analysis can be useful tools in risk assessment of groundwater pollution. The approach is applied to a study area in Hungary with several known groundwater pollution sources and nearby drinking water production wells. The main concern is whether the contamination sources threaten the drinking water wells of the area. A groundwater flow and transport model is set up to answer this question. Due to limited data availabili...

  15. Combining scenario planning and multi-criteria decision analysis in practice

    OpenAIRE

    Montibeller, Gilberto; Gummer, Haidee; Tumidei, Daniele

    2007-01-01

    The integrated use of Scenario Planning and Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) has been advocated as a powerful combination for providing decision support in strategic decisions. Scenario Planning helps decision makers in devising strategies and thinking about possible future scenarios; while MCDA can support an indepth performance evaluation of each strategy, as well as in the design of more robust and better options. One of the frameworks proposed recently, by Goodwin & Wright, suggest...

  16. Protective Alternatives of SMR against Extreme Threat Scenario – A Preliminary Risk Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The article presents a preliminary risk analysis of the main features in NPP (Nuclear Power Plant) that includes SMR - Small and Modular Reactors, given an extreme threat scenario. A review of the structure and systems of the SMR is followed by systematic definitions and analysis of the threat scenario to which a preliminary risk analysis was carried out. The article outlines the basic events caused by the referred threat scenario, which had led to possible failure mechanisms according to FTA (Fault-Tree-Analysis),critical protective circuits, and todetecting critical topics for the protection and safety of the reactor

  17. Development of scenario based training environment by mixed reality system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    We developed a support system for maintenance training of electric power facilities by Mixed Reality. A user of the system wears a Head-Mounted Display (HMD) with a small camera, puts a sensor on top of one's head and stands in front of a blue screen. The system recognizes an object and estimates its position and pose from an image that is captured by the small camera. The object recognition and the position-pose estimation are performed by image processing. after the object recognition and the position-pose estimation, the system overlays computer graphics to the object images. The computer graphics show operational guidance, instructions, or dynamic inside movements of the object on the HMD. In this paper, we describe an outline of the system and validation results of the system functions by several training scenarios. the validation results show that the support system can be used as an educational training tool of novice engineers. (author)

  18. Validation and Scenario Analysis of a Soil Organic Carbon Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    HUANG Yao; LIU Shi-liang; SHEN Qi-rong; ZONG Liang-gang; JIANG Ding-an; HUANG Hong-guang

    2002-01-01

    A model developed by the authors was validated against independent data sets. The data sets were obtained from field experiments of crop residue decomposition and a 7-year soil improvement in Yixing City, Jiangsu Province. Model validation indicated that soil organic carbon dynamics can be simulated from the weather variables of temperature, sunlight and precipitation, soil clay content and bulk density, grain yield of previous crops, qualities and quantities of the added organic matter. Model simulation in general agreed with the measurements. The comparison between computed and measured resulted in correlation coefficient γ2 values of 0.9291 * * * (n = 48) and 0. 6431 * * (n = 65) for the two experiments, respectively. Model prediction under three scenarios of no additional organic matter input, with an annual incorporation of rice and wheat straw at rates of 6.75t/ha and 9.0t/ha suggested that the soil organic carbon in Wanshi Township of Yixing City would be from an initial value of 7.85g/kg in 1983 to 6.30g/kg, 11.42g/kg and 13g/kg in 2014, respectively. Consequently, total nitrogen content of the soil was predicted to be respectively 0.49g/kg,0.89g/kg and 1.01g/kg under the three scenarios.

  19. Hydrogen Financial Analysis Scenario Tool (H2FAST); NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Melaina, Marc

    2015-04-21

    This presentation describes the Hydrogen Financial Analysis Scenario Tool, H2FAST, and provides an overview of each of the three H2FAST formats: the H2FAST web tool, the H2FAST Excel spreadsheet, and the H2FAST Business Case Scenario (BCS) tool. Examples are presented to illustrate the types of questions that H2FAST can help answer.

  20. Overview of the Hydrogen Financial Analysis Scenario Tool (H2FAST); NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Melaina, Marc; Bush, Brian; Penev, Michael

    2015-05-12

    This presentation provides an introduction to the Hydrogen Financial Analysis Scenario Tool (H2FAST) and includes an overview of each of the three versions of H2FAST: the Web tool, the Excel spreadsheet version, and the beta version of the H2FAST Business Case Scenario tool.

  1. A Two-Account Life Insurance Model for Scenario-Based Valuation Including Event Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ninna Reitzel Jensen

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Using a two-account model with event risk, we model life insurance contracts taking into account both guaranteed and non-guaranteed payments in participating life insurance as well as in unit-linked insurance. Here, event risk is used as a generic term for life insurance events, such as death, disability, etc. In our treatment of participating life insurance, we have special focus on the bonus schemes “consolidation” and “additional benefits”, and one goal is to formalize how these work and interact. Another goal is to describe similarities and differences between participating life insurance and unit-linked insurance. By use of a two-account model, we are able to illustrate general concepts without making the model too abstract. To allow for complicated financial markets without dramatically increasing the mathematical complexity, we focus on economic scenarios. We illustrate the use of our model by conducting scenario analysis based on Monte Carlo simulation, but the model applies to scenarios in general and to worst-case and best-estimate scenarios in particular. In addition to easy computations, our model offers a common framework for the valuation of life insurance payments across product types. This enables comparison of participating life insurance products and unit-linked insurance products, thus building a bridge between the two different ways of formalizing life insurance products. Finally, our model distinguishes itself from the existing literature by taking into account the Markov model for the state of the policyholder and, hereby, facilitating event risk.

  2. Scenario based seismic hazard assessment and its application to the seismic verification of relevant buildings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romanelli, Fabio; Vaccari, Franco; Altin, Giorgio; Panza, Giuliano

    2016-04-01

    The procedure we developed, and applied to a few relevant cases, leads to the seismic verification of a building by: a) use of a scenario based neodeterministic approach (NDSHA) for the calculation of the seismic input, and b) control of the numerical modeling of an existing building, using free vibration measurements of the real structure. The key point of this approach is the strict collaboration, from the seismic input definition to the monitoring of the response of the building in the calculation phase, of the seismologist and the civil engineer. The vibrometry study allows the engineer to adjust the computational model in the direction suggested by the experimental result of a physical measurement. Once the model has been calibrated by vibrometric analysis, one can select in the design spectrum the proper range of periods of interest for the structure. Then, the realistic values of spectral acceleration, which include the appropriate amplification obtained through the modeling of a "scenario" input to be applied to the final model, can be selected. Generally, but not necessarily, the "scenario" spectra lead to higher accelerations than those deduced by taking the spectra from the national codes (i.e. NTC 2008, for Italy). The task of the verifier engineer is to act so that the solution of the verification is conservative and realistic. We show some examples of the application of the procedure to some relevant (e.g. schools) buildings of the Trieste Province. The adoption of the scenario input has given in most of the cases an increase of critical elements that have to be taken into account in the design of reinforcements. However, the higher cost associated with the increase of elements to reinforce is reasonable, especially considering the important reduction of the risk level.

  3. Agent-based simulation of alternative classroom evacuation scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Runjiao Liu

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Due to the growing number of emergency accidents occurring around students, evacuation issues have become significantly important for both school officials and architects. Simply following construction codes cannot ensure that a building׳s layout is suitable for evacuation behaviors; therefore, to discover the suitable planning schemes, we have introduced an agent-based simulation model via Netlogo to investigate the interrelationships between evacuation efficiency and classroom layouts. Before conducting modeling experiments, both the simulation structure and the sensitivity to its parameter settings are examined by validation research and sensitivity analysis. Furthermore, to demonstrate the importance of conducting fire drills with students, two different types of behavior rules are designed to reflect the distinctive characteristics of students evacuating without instructions and students evacuating in good order. The general comparison results show us that the classroom layout with two exits shortens students׳ evacuation time, and the premeditated behavior rules, meaning that students who follow preset instructions to arrange their activities, not only escape faster but also have some advantages in ensuring their safety during the evacuation process. Moreover, at the end of this paper, several methods of improving this simulation model are proposed for more complex research in the future.

  4. The design and effect of automated directions during scenario-based training

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Peeters, M.M.M.; Bosch, K. van den; Meyer, J.J.C.; Neerincx, M.A.

    2014-01-01

    During scenario-based training, the scenario is dynamically adapted in real time to control the storyline and increase its effectiveness. A team of experienced staff members is required to manage and perform the adaptations. They manipulate the storyline and the level of support during their role-pl

  5. The Design and Effect of Automated Directions During Scenario-based Training

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Peeters, Marieke; Bosch, Karel van den; Meyer, John-Jules Ch.; Neerincx, Mark A.

    2014-01-01

    During scenario-based training, the scenario is dynamically adapted in real time to control the storyline and increase its effectiveness. A team of experienced staff members is required to manage and perform the adaptations. They manipulate the storyline and the level of support during their role-pl

  6. Scenario analysis of the impacts of forest management and climate change on the European forest sector carbon budget

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Karjalainen, T.; Pusinen, A.; Liski, J.; Nabuurs, G.J.; Eggers, T.; Lapveteläinen, T.; Kaipainen, T.

    2003-01-01

    Analysis of the impacts of forest management and climate change on the European forest sector carbon budget between 1990 and 2050 are presented in this article. Forest inventory based carbon budgeting with large scale scenario modelling was used. Altogether 27 countries and 128.5 million hectare of

  7. Scenario based optimization of a container vessel with respect to its projected operating conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wagner Jonas

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper the scenario based optimization of the bulbous bow of the KRISO Container Ship (KCS is presented. The optimization of the parametrically modeled vessel is based on a statistically developed operational profile generated from noon-to-noon reports of a comparable 3600 TEU container vessel and specific development functions representing the growth of global economy during the vessels service time. In order to consider uncertainties, statistical fluctuations are added. An analysis of these data lead to a number of most probable upcoming operating conditions (OC the vessel will stay in the future. According to their respective likeliness an objective function for the evaluation of the optimal design variant of the vessel is derived and implemented within the parametrical optimization workbench FRIENDSHIP Framework. In the following this evaluation is done with respect to vessel’s calculated effective power based on the usage of potential flow code. The evaluation shows, that the usage of scenarios within the optimization process has a strong influence on the hull form.

  8. Scenario-Based Sustainability Assessment to Provide Interactive Decision Support for the Long-Term Transition of Urban Water Supply Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Aydin, Nazli Yonca

    2014-01-01

    This dissertation focuses on the evaluation of technical and environmental sustainability of water distribution systems based on scenario analysis. The decision support system is created to assist in the decision making-process and to visualize the results of the sustainability assessment for current and future populations and scenarios. First, a methodology is developed to assess the technical and environmental sustainability for the current and future water distribution system scenarios. Th...

  9. Global energy outlook: an oil price scenario analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    At stable oil prices in the low 20s (US dollars per barrel), a reference case for oil market development sees annual oil demand growth of 1.5 million barrels per day over the period 2000-10. At these prices, non-OPEC production growth, mainly from developing countries and the former Soviet Union, is expected to meet less than one-third of this increase in demand; this means that an annual rise in output of around 1 mb/d is required from OPEC, increasing to 1.4 mb/d yearly over the period 2010-20. However, high prices, above 30 dollars/b, lead to lower oil demand, and, in particular, a strong response in non-OPEC production for both conventional and unconventional oil. Consequently, there will be a sharp reduction in OPEC market share, with even production levels having to continually fall. Such a scenario suggests that a price of 30 dollars/b and above may be unsustainable. The moot question remains at what price non-linear non-OPEC production responses may be triggered in the future. (author)

  10. Methods for Scenario-building: it’s importance for policy analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Moniz, António

    2005-01-01

    A scenario is a policy analysis tool that describes a possible set of future conditions. The most useful scenarios (for corporations, for policy decision makers) are those that display the conditions of important variables over time. In this approach, the quantitative underpinning enriches the narrative evolution of conditions or evolution of the variables; narratives describe the important events and developments that shape the variables. In terms of innovative methods for policy analysis, t...

  11. The analysis of historical earthquakes of the North Anatolian Fault in the Marmara Region, Turkey for the last 15 centuries based on intensity and continuous Coulomb scenarios: Implications for the fault geometry and the interaction of individual earthqua

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yaltırak, Cenk; Şahin, Murat

    2016-04-01

    In this study we evaluated the historical earthquakes of the Marmara Region totally in three-stages. In first stage, historical earthquakes were compiled from the available catalogues and classified according to their spatial distribution, whereas only the ones, related with the active northern branch of the North Anatolian Fault (NAF) were selected. Then, the next phase of classification was made to relate historical data to the ancient and historical settlements, for which a kind of shake map was produced for each event. In the second stage, three different fault models, suggested for the geometry of the NAF in the Marmara Region, were integrated into a GIS database. Mw magnitudes were calculated for each fault segment by using lengths, seismogenic depths, and slip-rates of fault segments. In the third stage, the revised digital geological map of the Marmara Region were compiled based on 1:500k conventional maps and were used to estimate the Vs30 distribution within a grid of 750x750 m. Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) maps were produced for each earthquake scenario, depending on the geometry of different fault models, calculated model magnitudes and intensity distributions. Moreover, we tested the surface ruptures of each earthquake scenarios by using the Coulomb stress change model for historical data covering a time era between AD 478 and 2016 in assumption with a constant horizontal slip rate of 19 mma-1 for all fault segments. As conclusion, the horsetail-fault geometry (Yaltırak, 2002) among all 3 fault models yielded the best fit to the distribution of intensities and coulomb models.

  12. Comparison of Integrated Analysis Methods for Two Model Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amundsen, Ruth M.

    1999-01-01

    Integrated analysis methods have the potential to substantially decrease the time required for analysis modeling. Integration with computer aided design (CAD) software can also allow a model to be more accurate by facilitating import of exact design geometry. However, the integrated method utilized must sometimes be tailored to the specific modeling situation, in order to make the process most efficient. Two cases are presented here that illustrate different processes used for thermal analysis on two different models. These examples are used to illustrate how the requirements, available input, expected output, and tools available all affect the process selected by the analyst for the most efficient and effective analysis.

  13. Accessing technical data bases using STDS: A collection of scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hardgrave, W. T.

    1975-01-01

    A line by line description is given of sessions using the set-theoretic data system (STDS) to interact with technical data bases. The data bases contain data from actual applications at NASA Langley Research Center. The report is meant to be a tutorial document that accompanies set processing in a network environment.

  14. Mannich Bases: An Important Pharmacophore in Present Scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suman Bala

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Mannich bases are the end products of Mannich reaction and are known as beta-amino ketone carrying compounds. Mannich reaction is a carbon-carbon bond forming nucleophilic addition reaction and is a key step in synthesis of a wide variety of natural products, pharmaceuticals, and so forth. Mannich reaction is important for the construction of nitrogen containing compounds. There is a number of aminoalkyl chain bearing Mannich bases like fluoxetine, atropine, ethacrynic acid, trihexyphenidyl, and so forth with high curative value. The literature studies enlighten the fact that Mannich bases are very reactive and recognized to possess potent diverse activities like anti-inflammatory, anticancer, antifilarial, antibacterial, antifungal, anticonvulsant, anthelmintic, antitubercular, analgesic, anti-HIV, antimalarial, antipsychotic, antiviral activities and so forth. The biological activity of Mannich bases is mainly attributed to α, β-unsaturated ketone which can be generated by deamination of hydrogen atom of the amine group.

  15. Scenario-informed multiple criteria analysis for prioritizing investments in electricity capacity expansion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Planning the expansion and energy security of electricity capacity for a national electricity utility is a complex task in almost any economy. Planning is usually an iterative activity and can involve the use of large scale planning optimization systems accompanied by assessment of uncertain scenarios emerging from economic, technological, environmental, and regulatory developments. This paper applies a multiple criteria decision analysis to prioritize investment portfolios in capacity expansion and energy security while principally studying the robustness of the prioritization to multiple uncertain and emergent scenarios. The scenarios are identified through interaction with decision makers and stakeholders. The approach finds which scenarios most affect the prioritization of the portfolios and which portfolios have the greatest upside and downside potential across scenarios. The approach fosters innovation in the use of robust and efficient technologies, renewable energy sources, and cleaner energy fuels. A demonstration is provided for assessing the performance of technology portfolios constructed from investments in nine electricity generation technologies in Mexico.

  16. Proposed methodology for completion of scenario analysis for the Basalt Waste Isolation Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This report presents the methodology to complete an assessment of postclosure performance, considering all credible scenarios, including the nominal case, for a proposed repository for high-level nuclear waste at the Hanford Site, Washington State. The methodology consists of defensible techniques for identifying and screening scenarios, and for then assessing the risks associated with each. The results of the scenario analysis are used to comprehensively determine system performance and/or risk for evaluation of compliance with postclosure performance criteria (10 CFR 60 and 40 CFR 191). In addition to describing the proposed methodology, this report reviews available methodologies for scenario analysis, discusses pertinent performance assessment and uncertainty concepts, advises how to implement the methodology (including the organizational requirements and a description of tasks) and recommends how to use the methodology in guiding future site characterization, analysis, and engineered subsystem design work. 36 refs., 24 figs., 1 tab

  17. Scenario design and basic analysis of the National Data Centre Preparedness Exercise 2013

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ross, Ole; Ceranna, Lars; Hartmann, Gernot; Gestermann, Nicolai; Bönneman, Christian

    2014-05-01

    The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) prohibits all kinds of nuclear explosions. For the detection of treaty violations the International Monitoring System (IMS) operates stations observing seismic, hydroacoustic, and infrasound signals as well as radioisotopes in the atmosphere. While the IMS data is collected, processed and technically analyzed in the International Data Center (IDC) of the CTBT-Organization, National Data Centers (NDC) provide interpretation and advice to their government concerning suspicious detections occurring in IMS data. NDC Preparedness Exercises (NPE) are regularly performed dealing with fictitious treaty violations to practice the combined analysis of CTBT verification technologies and for the mutual exchange of information between NDC and also with the IDC. The NPE2010 and NPE2012 trigger scenarios were based on selected seismic events from the Reviewed Event Bulletin (REB) serving as starting point for fictitious Radionuclide dispersion. The main task was the identification of the original REB event and the discrimination between earthquakes and explosions as source. The scenario design of NPE2013 differs from those of previous NPEs. The waveform event selection is not constrained to events in the REB. The exercise trigger is a combination of a tempo-spatial indication pointing to a certain waveform event and simulated radionuclide concentrations generated by forward Atmospheric Transport Modelling based on a fictitious release. For the waveform event the date (4 Sept. 2013) is given and the region is communicated in a map showing the fictitious state of "Frisia" at the Coast of the North Sea in Central Europe. The synthetic radionuclide detections start in Vienna (8 Sept, I-131) and Schauinsland (11 Sept, Xe-133) with rather low activity concentrations and are most prominent in Stockholm and Spitsbergen mid of September 2013. Smaller concentrations in Asia follow later on. The potential connection between the waveform and

  18. Severe accident analysis for shutdown state scenarios of CANDU6 plant using ISAAC

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper describes the analysis results for the shutdown state accident scenarios with ISAAC (Integrated Severe Accident Analysis code for CANDU plants) in terms of the severe core damage progression from the fuel heat up to the fuel channel failure, fuel material relocation to the calandria vessel, and to calandria/reactor building failure. The analyzed cases include the CANDU6 genetic scenarios. For the base case which represents the most pessimistic assumption for the safety systems, the important phenomena are described at the plant systems following the accident progression including the primary heat transport system, the core (fuel channel and suspended debris bed), the calandria vessel, the reactor vault, and the reactor building. Also the fission product and hydrogen behavior are analyzed. In order to see the effect of the safety systems on severe core damage accident progression, the availability of a moderator cooling system and a shield cooling system are considered for the sensitivity cases. Each scenario is analyzed up to 500,000 seconds (138.9 hours) to see the corium behavior until the reactor vault bottom concrete melt-through. For the ISAAC simulation of the CANDU6 plant, 18 representative fuel channels for 190 actual channels each loop (9 channels between steam generators) are defined for the core configuration. The reactor building is defined with 13 compartments and 22 junctions including reactor building leakage. The result of the most severe case of base case shows that the core uncovers at 2.8 hours, pressure tube ruptures at 3.3 hours due to creep, the reactor building fails at about 32.6 hours and the calandria fails at 49.9 hours after an accident initiation. In the scenarios where the moderator cooling system is available, the pressure tubes experience the creep rupture, but the fuel melt do not occur and the reactor building maintained their integrity. The end shield cooling system can't prevent the core melt and relocation but

  19. Forest Policy Scenario Analysis: Sensitivity of Songbird Community to Changes in Forest Cover Amount and Configuration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jim Baker

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available Changes in mature forest cover amount, composition, and configuration can be of significant consequence to wildlife populations. The response of wildlife to forest patterns is of concern to forest managers because it lies at the heart of such competing approaches to forest planning as aggregated vs. dispersed harvest block layouts. In this study, we developed a species assessment framework to evaluate the outcomes of forest management scenarios on biodiversity conservation objectives. Scenarios were assessed in the context of a broad range of forest structures and patterns that would be expected to occur under natural disturbance and succession processes. Spatial habitat models were used to predict the effects of varying degrees of mature forest cover amount, composition, and configuration on habitat occupancy for a set of 13 focal songbird species. We used a spatially explicit harvest scheduling program to model forest management options and simulate future forest conditions resulting from alternative forest management scenarios, and used a process-based fire-simulation model to simulate future forest conditions resulting from natural wildfire disturbance. Spatial pattern signatures were derived for both habitat occupancy and forest conditions, and these were placed in the context of the simulated range of natural variation. Strategic policy analyses were set in the context of current Ontario forest management policies. This included use of sequential time-restricted harvest blocks (created for Woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus conservation and delayed harvest areas (created for American marten (Martes americana atrata conservation. This approach increased the realism of the analysis, but reduced the generality of interpretations. We found that forest management options that create linear strips of old forest deviate the most from simulated natural patterns, and had the greatest negative effects on habitat occupancy, whereas policy options

  20. Seismic response analysis of Wolsung NPP structure and equipment subjected to scenario earthquakes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Choi, In Kil; Ahn, Seong Moon; Choun, Young Sun; Seo, Jeong Moon

    2005-03-15

    The standard response spectrum proposed by US NRC has been used as a design earthquake for the design of Korean nuclear power plant structures. However, it does not reflect the characteristic of seismological and geological of Korea. In this study, the seismic response analysis of Wolsung NPP structure and equipment were performed. Three types of input motions, artificial time histories that envelop the US NRC Regulatory Guide 1.60 spectrum and the probability based scenario earthquake spectra developed for the Korean NPP site and a typical near-fault earthquake recorded at thirty sites, were used as input motions. The acceleration, displacement and shear force responses of Wolsung containment structure due to the design earthquake were larger than those due to the other input earthquakes. But, considering displacement response increases abruptly as Wolsung NPP structure does nonlinear behavior, the reassessment of the seismic safety margin based on the displacement is necessary if the structure does nonlinear behavior; although it has adequate the seismic safety margin within elastic limit. Among the main safety-related devices, electrical cabinet and pump showed the large responses on the scenario earthquake which has the high frequency characteristic. This has great effects of the seismic capacity of the main devices installed inside of the building. This means that the design earthquake is not so conservative for the safety of the safety related nuclear power plant equipments.

  1. Analysis of advanced European nuclear fuel cycle scenarios including transmutation and economic estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Highlights: • Four fuel cycle scenarios have been analyzed in resources and economic terms. • Scenarios involve Once-Through, Pu burning, and MA transmutation strategies. • No restrictions were found in terms of uranium and plutonium availability. • The best case cost and the impact of their uncertainties to the LCOE were analyzed. - Abstract: Four European fuel cycle scenarios involving transmutation options (in coherence with PATEROS and CP-ESFR EU projects) have been addressed from a point of view of resources utilization and economic estimates. Scenarios include: (i) the current fleet using Light Water Reactor (LWR) technology and open fuel cycle, (ii) full replacement of the initial fleet with Fast Reactors (FR) burning U–Pu MOX fuel, (iii) closed fuel cycle with Minor Actinide (MA) transmutation in a fraction of the FR fleet, and (iv) closed fuel cycle with MA transmutation in dedicated Accelerator Driven Systems (ADS). All scenarios consider an intermediate period of GEN-III+ LWR deployment and they extend for 200 years, looking for long term equilibrium mass flow achievement. The simulations were made using the TREVOL code, capable to assess the management of the nuclear mass streams in the scenario as well as economics for the estimation of the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) and other costs. Results reveal that all scenarios are feasible according to nuclear resources demand (natural and depleted U, and Pu). Additionally, we have found as expected that the FR scenario reduces considerably the Pu inventory in repositories compared to the reference scenario. The elimination of the LWR MA legacy requires a maximum of 55% fraction (i.e., a peak value of 44 FR units) of the FR fleet dedicated to transmutation (MA in MOX fuel, homogeneous transmutation) or an average of 28 units of ADS plants (i.e., a peak value of 51 ADS units). Regarding the economic analysis, the main usefulness of the provided economic results is for relative comparison of

  2. Six scenarios of exploiting an ontology based, mobilized learning environment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    G. Kismihók; I. Szabó; R. Vas

    2012-01-01

    In this article, six different exploitation possibilities of an educational ontology based, mobilized learning management system are presented. The focal point of this system is the educational ontology model. The first version of this educational ontology model serves as a foundation for curriculum

  3. Indoor navigation and location based services scenario for airports

    OpenAIRE

    Klimek, Helge; Greßmann, Björn; Turau, Volker

    2011-01-01

    This report explains in an in depth example how our architecture for indoor navigation and location based services (INLBS) works. The expandable architecture offers a framework API and predefined services with a runtime environment and aims at enabling ubiquitous INLBS where users can use their mobile devices in any building.

  4. Ground surface temperature scenarios in complex high-mountain topography based on regional climate model results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salzmann, Nadine; NöTzli, Jeannette; Hauck, Christian; Gruber, Stephan; Hoelzle, Martin; Haeberli, Wilfried

    2007-06-01

    Climate change can have severe impacts on the high-mountain cryosphere, such as instabilities in rock walls induced by thawing permafrost. Relating climate change scenarios produced from global climate models (GCMs) and regional climate models (RCMs) to complex high-mountain environments is a challenging task. The qualitative and quantitative impact of changes in climatic conditions on local to microscale ground surface temperature (GST) and the ground thermal regime is not readily apparent. This study assesses a possible range of changes in the GST (ΔGST) in complex mountain topography. To account for uncertainties associated with RCM output, a set of 12 different scenario climate time series (including 10 RCM-based and 2 incremental scenarios) was applied to the topography and energy balance (TEBAL) model to simulate average ΔGST for 36 different topographic situations. Variability of the simulated ΔGST is related primarily to the emission scenarios, the RCM, and the approach used to apply RCM results to the impact model. In terms of topography, significant influence on GST simulation was shown by aspect because it modifies the received amount of solar radiation at the surface. North faces showed higher sensitivity to the applied climate scenarios, while uncertainties are higher for south faces. On the basis of the results of this study, use of RCM-based scenarios is recommended for mountain permafrost impact studies, as opposed to incremental scenarios.

  5. Scenario Content, Outcome and Process - developing and testing methodologies for goal-based socio-technical scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wangel, Josefin (KTH Royal Inst. of Tech., Stockholm (Sweden). School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Urban Planning and Environment, Environmental Strategies); Gustafsson, Stina (KTH Royal Inst. of Tech., Stockholm (Sweden). School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology)

    2011-07-01

    This report presents methodological developments and findings from the ongoing research project SitCit. SitCit is a cross-disciplinary research project in which the challenge of sustainable urban development is taken on through a futures studies approach. Rather than starting in the problematic present, SitCit takes its starting point in the desired future. Through developing scenarios of more sustainable futures and connecting these to the present, the project aims at identifying and innovating potentials for a less environmentally burdening urban life. Energy use and CO{sub 2} are the main focus, but through a complementary qualitative sustainability assessment other aspects of sustainability are also included. The scenario methodology is comprised of three separate but interconnected parts. In the Scenario Content the question what could change is at the centre, and the potential changes are sought in the physical, institutional, and socio-cultural structures of buildings, transport and citizens' everyday life. Fundamental to the Scenario Content is an iterative identification of objects and actors of change. The Scenario Outcome focuses on the question of how much energy use could be decreased through these changes. This is estimated through modelling the scenario contents in terms of energy usage systems. In the Scenario Process the question of how the changes could be achieved is explored through elaborating the identified actors into a dimension of governance in the scenarios. Figure 1 presents an overview of the methodology and its integral parts. In SitCit, the methodology is developed through three scenario studies focusing on green mobility in Bromma, ICT solutions in Soedermalm and energy efficiency through refurbishment in Rinkeby-Kista. These three Stockholm City Districts all have their specific urban morphological and demographical characteristics and are chosen for contrast. This report presents the study focusing on green mobility

  6. GENERIC DEGRADATION SCENARIO AND CONFIGURATION ANALYSIS FOR DOE CODISPOSAL WASTE PACKAGE

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The purpose of this analysis is to develop a generic set of degradation scenarios and associated configurations for various Department of Energy (DOE) spent nuclear fuel (SNF) types when codisposed with the high-level waste (HLW) glass inside a waste package (WP). The degradation takes place inside the WP. These scenarios and configurations are developed as refinements of the standard degradation scenarios and potentially critical configuration classes given in Section 3.1 of the ''Disposal Criticality Analysis Methodology Topical Report'' (Ref. 1). Certain degradation scenarios and configurations will change when EDA II design is baselined. In accordance with AP-3.10Q, Revision 0, ICN 0, a work direction was developed, issued, and used in the preparation of this document (Ref. 13, p. 7)

  7. Strategies for cost-effective carbon reductions: A sensitivity analysis of alternative scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Analyses of alternative futures often present results for a limited set of scenarios, with little if any sensitivity analysis to identify the factors affecting the scenario results. This approach creates an artificial impression of certainty associated with the scenarios considered, and inhibits understanding of the underlying forces. This paper summarizes the economic and carbon savings sensitivity analysis completed for the Scenarios for a Clean Energy Future study (IWG, 2000). Its 19 sensitivity cases provide insight into the costs and carbon-reduction impacts of a carbon permit trading system, demand-side efficiency programs, and supply-side policies. Impacts under different natural gas and oil price trajectories are also examined. The results provide compelling evidence that policy opportunities exist to reduce carbon emissions and save society money

  8. SCENARIO AND TARGET SIMULATION FOR A GROUND BASED MULTIFUNCTION PHASED ARRAY RADAR

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2008-01-01

    This paper describes a scenario and target simulation which operates in non real-time to provide full closed-loop operation of the ground based multifunction phased array radar simulation system in support of ballistic missile defence experiments against countermeasure.By simulating the target scattering signature and dynamical signature,this scenario and target simulation provide re- alistic scenario source to evaluate the system performance of multifunction phased array radar,and the key algorithms verification and validation such as target tracking,multi-target imaging and target recognition.

  9. Scenario analysis with the Dutch acidification systems (DAS) model: an example for forests and forest soils

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Within the framework of the Dutch Priority Programme on Acidification, the DAS model has been developed. This model aims at evaluating the effects of acidification abatement strategies on a number of receptor systems in the Netherlands and describes the entire causality chain from emissions to effects in a regionalized way. Effects of three emission/deposition scenarios on forest soils and forests are described. The emission/deposition scenarios are based on political measures as announced in the Netherlands Environmental Policy Plan for the period 1990-2000. Deposition reductions lead to a fast increase of the pH value and decrease of the Al3+ concentration and Al3+/Ca2+ ratio in the soil solution, decreasing the risk for indirect forest damage. The exceedance of a critical Al3+ concentration of 0.2 molc.m-3 and a critical molar Al3+/Ca2+ ratio of 1.0 reduces from about 75% and 65% of the considered forest area at present to about 40% and 30% in the year 2000. If deposition is kept constant after 2000, the critical Al3+ concentration and Al3+/Ca2- ratio will still be exceeded in a considerable area of forest soil in 2050. The scenario analysis for forests indicates that the nitrogen content of needles is reduced significantly. However, when the deposition is kept constant after 2000, a critical nitrogen content of 1.8% in needles is still exceeded in forests in areas with high nitrogen deposition. The final part of the paper gives a brief description of future model developments. 31 refs., 9 figs., 3 tabs

  10. Development and analysis of scenarios for a permanent repository for radioactive wastes in Salt Rock

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scenarios were developed and analyzed as part of a long-term safety analysis of a permanent repository for radioactive wastes. A procedure is described by which features, events, and processes (FEP) at a specific site can be evaluated for the long-term safety assessment of a permanent repository for radioactive waste. These FEPs can be weighted according to selected criteria and combined to scenarios using a conceptual model of the site. Copyright (2001) Material Research Society

  11. Analysis of Long-term Energy and Carbon Emission Scenarios for India

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In the coming years India faces great challenges in energy and environment. The path of development chosen by India, upon which lies the future growth of energy and emission trajectories, would be greatly influenced by technological developments both within and outside the country, economic cooperation between countries, and global cooperation in limiting greenhouse gas emissions. This paper discusses the integrated modeling system used for developing and analyzing the long-term trajectories and presents results for the scenarios developed. In the context of ongoing market reforms two scenarios - accelerated and decelerated reforms - are developed depicting fast and slow progress in energy sector reforms compared to expectations in the baseline scenario. Accelerated market reforms would spur improvements in technological efficiencies. Reforms would lower investment risks in India, thereby stimulating increased levels of foreign direct investment. On the other hand in decelerated reform scenario economic growth is lower than that in the base case, there is low access to capital, and technological improvements lag behind those in the base case. In another scenario we assume specific policy interventions for penetration of renewable technologies over the baseline scenario, for promotion and accelerated deployment of renewable energy technologies over and above the baseline assumptions. A scenario with carbon (c) constraints has also been developed and the results discussed

  12. A Multi-layer Scenario Analysis for Sustainable International Transport

    OpenAIRE

    Rodenburg, C.A.; Ubbels, B.J.; Nijkamp, P.

    2000-01-01

    It is clear that the future of the transport sector is fraught withuncertainties, as the system can be influenced by many factors thatcan develop in various ways. The aim of this paper is to gain insightinto the future development of the transportation sector. It presentsthe development of the transport sector based on four globalisationscenarios. On three different scale levels (global, European andDutch) four future images of the transportation market areconstructed. The expected implicatio...

  13. A Scenario Based Allocation Model Using Entropy Pooling for Computing the cenarioProbabilities

    OpenAIRE

    Georgelis, Nikos; Nyberg, Mikael

    2013-01-01

    We introduce a scenario based allocation model (SBAM) that uses entropy pooling for computing scenario probabilities. Compared to most other models that allow the investor to blend historical data with subjective views about the future, the SBAM does not require the investor to quantify a level of confidence in the subjective views.  A quantitative test is performed on a simulated systematic fund offered by the fund company Informed Portfolio Management in Stockholm, Sweden. The simulated fun...

  14. Scenario analysis for the postclosure assessment of the Canadian concept for nuclear fuel waste disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    AECL Research has developed and evaluated a concept for disposal of Canada's nuclear fuel waste involving deep underground disposal of the waste in intrusive igneous rock of the Canadian Shield. The postclosure assessment of this concept focusses on the effects on human health and the environment due to potential contaminant releases into the biosphere after the disposal vault is closed. Both radiotoxic and chemically toxic contaminants are considered. One of the steps in the postclosure assessment process is scenario analysis. Scenario analysis identifies factors that could affect the performance of the disposal system and groups these factors into scenarios that require detailed quantitative evaluation. This report documents a systematic procedure for scenario analysis that was developed for the postclosure assessment and then applied to the study of a hypothetical disposal system. The application leads to a comprehensive list of factors and a set of scenarios that require further quantitative study. The application also identifies a number of other factors and potential scenarios that would not contribute significantly to environmental and safety impacts for the hypothetical disposal system. (author). 46 refs., 3 tabs., 3 figs., 2 appendices

  15. Biomass Scenario Model: BETO Analysis Platform Peer Review; NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bush, B.

    2015-03-23

    The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a unique, carefully validated, state-of-the-art fourth-generation model of the domestic bioenergy supply chain which explicitly focuses on policy issues and their potential side effects. It integrates resource availability, behavior, policy, and physical, technological, and economic constraints. The BSM uses system-dynamics simulation to model dynamic interactions across the supply chain; it tracks the deployment of biofuels given technological development and the reaction of the investment community to those technologies in the context of land availability, the competing oil market, consumer demand for biofuels, and government policies over time. It places a strong emphasis on the behavior and decision-making of various economic agents. The model treats the major infrastructure-compatible fuels. Scenario analysis based on the BSM shows that the biofuels industry tends not to rapidly thrive without significant external actions in the early years of its evolution. An initial focus for jumpstarting the industry typically has strongest results in the BSM in areas where effects of intervention have been identified to be multiplicative. In general, we find that policies which are coordinated across the whole supply chain have significant impact in fostering the growth of the biofuels industry and that the production of tens of billions of gallons of biofuels may occur under sufficiently favorable conditions.

  16. Analysis of Multipath Routing in Random Ad Hoc Networks Scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Indrani Das

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available In this study, we have proposed a multipath routing protocol for Mobile Ad Hoc Networks. Multipath routing overcomes various problems that occur in data delivery through a single path. The proposed protocol selects multiple neighbor nodes of source node to establish multiple paths towards destination. These nodes are selected based on their minimum remaining distance from destination. We have computed the length of various paths and average hops count for different node density in the network. We have considered only three paths for our evaluation. The results show that path-2 gives better results in term of hop count and path length among three paths.

  17. A comparability analysis of global burden sharing GHG reduction scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The distribution of the mitigation burden across countries is a key issue regarding the post-2012 global climate policies. This article explores the economic implications of alternative allocation rules, an assessment made in the run-up to the COP15 in Copenhagen (December 2009). We analyse the comparability of the allocations across countries based on four single indicators: GDP per capita, GHG emissions per GDP, GHG emission trends in the recent past, and population growth. The multi-sectoral computable general equilibrium model of the global economy, GEM-E3, is used for that purpose. Further, the article also compares a perfect carbon market without transaction costs with the case of a gradually developing carbon market, i.e. a carbon market with (gradually diminishing) transaction costs. - Highlights: ► Burden sharing of global mitigation efforts should consider equity and efficiency. ► The comparability of allocations across countries is based on four indicators. ► The four indicators are GDP/capita, GHG/GDP, population growth, and GHG trend. ► Any possible agreement on effort comparability needs a combination of indicators. ► We analyse the role played by the degree of flexibility in global carbon trading

  18. Intermediate steps towards the 2000-Watt society in Switzerland: an energy-economic scenario analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In this dissertation by Thorsten Frank Schulz the intermediate steps necessary to realise the 2000-Watt Society in Switzerland are examined. An analysis of an energy-economic scenario shows that the 2000-Watt Society should be seen as a long-term goal. According to the author, the major changes required to allow the implementation of this project concern energy-transformation and energy-demand technologies. Electricity will, according to the author, play an important role in a service-oriented society in the future. In such a transformation even intermediate steps are associated with considerable expense. The aims of the 2000-Watt Society project are listed. Energy and CO2 balances for the domestic and transport sectors are presented and discussed. Complementary analyses are presented concerning fuel cells and wood-based fuel technologies. Finally, the implications of the 2000-Watt society and the effects of technological change are summarised and an outlook is presented

  19. Modeling and Analysis of Realistic Fire Scenarios in Spacecraft

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brooker, J. E.; Dietrich, D. L.; Gokoglu, S. A.; Urban, D. L.; Ruff, G. A.

    2015-01-01

    An accidental fire inside a spacecraft is an unlikely, but very real emergency situation that can easily have dire consequences. While much has been learned over the past 25+ years of dedicated research on flame behavior in microgravity, a quantitative understanding of the initiation, spread, detection and extinguishment of a realistic fire aboard a spacecraft is lacking. Virtually all combustion experiments in microgravity have been small-scale, by necessity (hardware limitations in ground-based facilities and safety concerns in space-based facilities). Large-scale, realistic fire experiments are unlikely for the foreseeable future (unlike in terrestrial situations). Therefore, NASA will have to rely on scale modeling, extrapolation of small-scale experiments and detailed numerical modeling to provide the data necessary for vehicle and safety system design. This paper presents the results of parallel efforts to better model the initiation, spread, detection and extinguishment of fires aboard spacecraft. The first is a detailed numerical model using the freely available Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS). FDS is a CFD code that numerically solves a large eddy simulation form of the Navier-Stokes equations. FDS provides a detailed treatment of the smoke and energy transport from a fire. The simulations provide a wealth of information, but are computationally intensive and not suitable for parametric studies where the detailed treatment of the mass and energy transport are unnecessary. The second path extends a model previously documented at ICES meetings that attempted to predict maximum survivable fires aboard space-craft. This one-dimensional model implies the heat and mass transfer as well as toxic species production from a fire. These simplifications result in a code that is faster and more suitable for parametric studies (having already been used to help in the hatch design of the Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle, MPCV).

  20. Analysis of China' s Primary Energy Demand Scenarios Based on the CDECGE Model%基于CDECGE模型的中国能源需求情景分析

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    毕清华; 范英; 蔡圣华; 夏炎

    2013-01-01

    从我国未来经济社会发展目标出发,根据不同的政策目标设定了3种经济发展情景:基准情景、强化低碳情景和粗放型情景.分析了3种情景下我国未来的一次能源需求量、能源消费结构及CO2排放趋势,为把握我国未来的能源安全形势、控制温室气体排放提供了有效的政策分析工具.研究方法是在Monash模型的基础上构造的我国能源经济动态可计算一般均衡模型(CDECGE).结果显示,按照现在的经济增长方式和增长率预期,如果没有额外的政策措施,2020年之前我国能源需求仍将快速增长,但在适度的低碳政策引导下,我国2020年的能源需求将控制在45.52亿t标煤,CO2排放强度将达到1.635 t/万元,相对2005年下降45%.碳税作为一种经济减排政策,会有效的降低CO2排放,减少化石能源的需求,使经济向低碳社会转型,从而实现2020年CO2排放强度降低的减排目标.因此,为减缓能源需求量的快速增长趋势,实现减排目标,可以从改善产业结构、实行碳税政策等方面采取措施,优化能源结构,实现经济结构转型,从而保障能源供应安全和控制温室气体排放.%In response to China' s future economic and social development goals, this paper explored three economic development scenarios; the baseline scenario, the enhanced, low-carbon scenario, and the extensive economic growth scenario. The paper analysed China' s primary energy demand, CO2 emissions trends, and energy consumption structure under different policies, and the model can be an effective policy tool for analysing China' s future energy security situation and controlling China' s greenhouse gas emissions. A dynamic energy computable general equilibrium ( CGE) model, which was based on the Monash model, was used to evaluate China' s energy economy (CDECGE Model) . The investigation results show that due to the current economic growth patterns and the economic growth rate, without

  1. 77 FR 48107 - Workshop on Performance Assessments of Near-Surface Disposal Facilities: FEPs Analysis, Scenario...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-08-13

    ...-Surface Disposal Facilities: FEPs Analysis, Scenario and Conceptual Model Development, and Code Selection... Radioactive Waste.'' These regulations were published in the Federal Register on December 27, 1982 (47 FR... on three aspects of a performance assessment: (1) Features, Events, and Processes (FEPs) analysis,...

  2. Designing Peace and Conflict Exercises: Level of Analysis, Scenario, and Role Specification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartels, Elizabeth; McCown, Margaret; Wilkie, Timothy

    2013-01-01

    Attentiveness to and transparency about the methodological implications of the level of analysis selected for peace and conflict exercises constitute essential elements of good game design. The article explores the impact of level of analysis choices in the context of two key portions of exercises, scenario construction and role specification. It…

  3. Topical report on release scenario analysis of long-term management of high-level defense waste at the Hanford Site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Potential release scenarios for the defense high-level waste (HLW) on the Hanford Site are presented. Presented in this report are the three components necessary for evaluating the various alternatives under consideration for long-term management of Hanford defense HLW: identification of scenarios and events which might directly or indirectly disrupt radionuclide containment barriers; geotransport calculations of waste migration through the site media; and consequence (dose) analyses based on groundwater and air pathways calculations. The scenarios described in this report provide the necessary parameters for radionuclide transport and consequence analysis. Scenarios are categorized as either bounding or nonbounding. Bounding scenarios consider worst case or what if situations where an actual and significant release of waste material to the environment would happen if the scenario were to occur. Bounding scenarios include both near-term and long-term scenarios. Near-term scenarios are events which occur at 100 years from 1990. Long term scenarios are potential events considered to occur at 1000 and 10,000 years from 1990. Nonbounding scenarios consider events which result in insignificant releases or no release at all to the environment. Three release mechanisms are described in this report: (1) direct exposure of waste to the biosphere by a defined sequence of events (scenario) such as human intrusion by drilling; (2) radionuclides contacting an unconfined aquifer through downward percolation of groundwater or a rising water table; and (3) cataclysmic or explosive release of radionuclides by such mechanisms as meteorite impact, fire and explosion, criticality, or seismic events. Scenarios in this report present ways in which these release mechanisms could occur at a waste management facility. The scenarios are applied to the two in-tank waste management alternatives: in-situ disposal and continued present action

  4. Technology and Greenhouse Gas Emissions: An Integrated Scenario Analysis using the LBNL-NEMS model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This report describes an analysis of possible technology-based scenarios for the U.S. energy system that would result in both carbon savings and net economic benefits. We use a modified version of the Energy Information Administration's National Energy Modeling System (LBNL-NEMS) to assess the potential energy, carbon, and bill savings from a portfolio of carbon saving options. This analysis is based on technology resource potentials estimated in previous bottom-up studies, but it uses the integrated LBNL-NEMS framework to assess interactions and synergies among these options. The analysis in this paper builds on previous estimates of possible ''technology paths'' to investigate four major components of an aggressive greenhouse gas reduction strategy: (1) the large scale implementation of demand-side efficiency, comparable in scale to that presented in two recent policy studies on this topic; (2) a variety of ''alternative'' electricity supply-side options, including biomass cofiring, extension of the renewable production tax credit for wind, increased industrial cogeneration, and hydropower refurbishment. (3) the economic retirement of older and less efficient existing fossil-find power plants; and (4) a permit charge of $23 per metric ton of carbon (1996 $/t),l assuming that carbon trading is implemented in the US, and that the carbon permit charge equilibrates at this level. This level of carbon permit charge, as discussed later in the report, is in the likely range for the Clinton Administration's position on this topic

  5. Evolutionary Game Analysis of Unexpected Incidents Involving Mass Participation Based Scenario Inference%基于情景推演的群体性突发事件演化博弈分析

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王循庆; 李勇建; 孙华丽

    2015-01-01

    game problem of different social groups in unexpected incidents involving mass participation, we study the strategy se-lection process of two types of social groups, i.e.the social powerful group and social vulnerable group, based on evolution game theory.Then this paper establishes the evolutionary game model of unexpected incidents involving mass participation under the scenario with or without the higher levels of government′s punishment mechanism, and analyzes the behavior strategy stability of the two heterogeneous groups.Finally, this paper introduces evolutionary status of unexpected incidents involving mass participa-tion for scenario inference simulations, the results show that:Under the scenario without the higher government′s punishment mechanism,①if the costs and credit losses by taking tough poli-cies are higher than the benefits and punishment costs on the vulnerable groups who adopt the struggle strategy.Moreover the benefits of the social vulnerable groups by taking the struggle strategy are less than the costs, then the two heterogeneous groups will ultimately choose cooperative strategies;②if the benefits by taking tough policies of the social powerful group exceed the sum of the action costs, credit losses and compensation costs, meanwhile the benefits of the social vulnerable group by taking the struggle strategy exceed the sum of the costs including the action, compensation and penalty, then the two heterogeneous groups will select the tough struggle strategy;③the strategy evolutionary velocities of the two heterogeneous groups are directly related with the initial proportion of policies selections.Given the same tactics proportion, the speed of stable strategy evolutionary of the social vulnerable group is faster than that of the powerful group. Under the scenario with the higher government′s punishment mechanism, ①if the punishment costs of superior government are higher than the margin between the benefits and the costs including

  6. Using Formative Scenario Analysis approach for landslide risk analysis in a relatively scarce data environment: preliminary results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zumpano, Veronica; Balteanu, Dan; Mazzorana, Bruno; Micu, Mihai

    2014-05-01

    It is increasingly important to provide to stakeholders tools that will enable them to better understand what is the state of the environment in which they live and manage and to help them to make decisions that aim to minimize the consequences of hydro-meteorological hazards. Very often, however, quantitative studies, especially for large areas, are difficult to perform. This is due to the fact that unfortunately isn't often possible to have the numerous data required to perform the analysis. In addition it has been proven that in scenario analysis, often deterministic approaches are not able to detect some features of the system revealing unexpected behaviors, and resulting in underestimation or omission of some impact factors. Here are presented some preliminary results obtained applying Formative Scenario Analysis that can be considered a possible solution for landslide risk analysis in cases where the data needed even if existent are not available. This method is an expert based approach that integrates intuitions and qualitative evaluations of impact factors with the quantitative analysis of relations between these factors: a group of experts with different but pertinent expertise, determine (by a rating procedure) quantitative relations between these factors, then through mathematical operations the scenarios describing a certain state of the system are obtained. The approach is applied to Buzau County (Romania), an area belonging to the Curvature Romanian Carpathians and Subcarpathians, a region strongly affected by environmental hazards. The region has been previously involved in numerous episodes of severe hydro-meteorological events that caused considerable damages (1975, 2005, 2006). In this application we are referring only to one type of landslides that can be described as shallow and medium-seated with a (mainly) translational movement that can go from slide to flow. The material involved can be either soil, debris or a mixture of both, in Romanian

  7. Geothermal power production in future electricity markets-A scenario analysis for Germany

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Development and diffusion of new renewable energy technologies play a central role in mitigating climate change. In this context, small-scale deep geothermal power has seen growing interest in recent years as an environmentally friendly, non-intermittent energy source with large technical potential. Following the first successful demonstration projects, the German geothermal industry is currently experiencing an internationally unparalleled growth. In this study we explore the factors driving this development, and the role geothermal power production could play in the future of the German electricity market. For this, we apply the scenario technique, based on literature analysis and interviews with companies operating actively in the field. Our findings highlight the importance of political support and framework conditions in the electricity market, with the best prospects in a decentralised energy system based on renewable energy sources, where high investment costs and the risk of discovery failure are balanced by the benefits of low-carbon base load power. - Research highlights: → Small scale geothermal plants could provide base load for RES based power systems. → New technologies allow its use even in geologically inactive regions like Germany. → Key factors for growth are political support and power market framework conditions. → Main investment barriers are comparatively high investment costs and discovery risks. → Scale of use depends on technological evolution and energy system structure.

  8. Case studies of scenario analysis for adaptive management of natural resource and infrastructure systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hamilton, M.C.; Thekdi, S.A.; Jenicek, E.M.;

    2013-01-01

    Management of natural resources and infrastructure systems for sustainability is complicated by uncertainties in the human and natural environment. Moreover, decisions are further complicated by contradictory views, values, and concerns that are rarely made explicit. Scenario analysis can play a...... of emergent conditions and help to avoid regret and belated action. The purpose of this paper is to present several case studies in natural resources and infrastructure systems management where scenario analysis has been used to aide decision making under uncertainty. The case studies include several...... resource and infrastructure systems: (1) water resources (2) land-use corridors (3) energy infrastructure, and (4) coastal climate change adaptation. The case studies emphasize a participatory approach, where scenario analysis becomes a means of incorporating diverse stakeholder concerns and experience...

  9. Simulation of Reclaimed-Water Injection and Pumping Scenarios and Particle-Tracking Analysis near Mount Pleasant, South Carolina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petkewich, Matthew D.; Campbell, Bruce G.

    2009-01-01

    The effect of injecting reclaimed water into the Middendorf aquifer beneath Mount Pleasant, South Carolina, was simulated using a groundwater-flow model of the Coastal Plain Physiographic Province of South Carolina and parts of Georgia and North Carolina. Reclaimed water, also known as recycled water, is wastewater or stormwater that has been treated to an appropriate level so that the water can be reused. The scenarios were simulated to evaluate potential changes in groundwater flow and groundwater-level conditions caused by injecting reclaimed water into the Middendorf aquifer. Simulations included a Base Case and two injection scenarios. Maximum pumping rates were simulated as 6.65, 8.50, and 10.5 million gallons per day for the Base Case, Scenario 1, and Scenario 2, respectively. The Base Case simulation represents a non-injection estimate of the year 2050 groundwater levels for comparison purposes for the two injection scenarios. For Scenarios 1 and 2, the simulated injection of reclaimed water at 3 million gallons per day begins in 2012 and continues through 2050. The flow paths and time of travel for the injected reclaimed water were simulated using particle-tracking analysis. The simulations indicated a general decline of groundwater altitudes in the Middendorf aquifer in the Mount Pleasant, South Carolina, area between 2004 and 2050 for the Base Case and two injection scenarios. For the Base Case, groundwater altitudes generally declined about 90 feet from the 2004 groundwater levels. For Scenarios 1 and 2, although groundwater altitudes initially increased in the Mount Pleasant area because of the simulated injection, these higher groundwater levels declined as Mount Pleasant Waterworks pumping increased over time. When compared to the Base Case simulation, 2050 groundwater altitudes for Scenario 1 are between 15 feet lower to 23 feet higher for production wells, between 41 and 77 feet higher for the injection wells, and between 9 and 23 feet higher for

  10. Quantifying uncertainty in urban flooding analysis caused by the combined effect of climate and land use change scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I.-W. Jung

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available How will the combined impacts of land use change and climate change influence changes in urban flood frequency and what is the main uncertainty source of the results? We attempt to answer to these questions in two catchments with different degrees of urbanization, the Fanno catchment with 84% urban land use and the Johnson catchment with 36% urban land use, both located in the Pacific Northwest of the US. Five uncertainty sources – general circulation model (GCM structures, future greenhouse gas (GHG emission scenarios, land use change scenarios, natural variability, and hydrologic model parameters – are considered to compare the relative source of uncertainty in flood frequency projections. Two land use change scenarios conservation and development, representing possible future land use changes are used for analysis. Results show the highest increase in flood frequency under the combination of medium high GHG emission (A1B and development scenarios, and the lowest increase under the combination of low GHG emission (B1 and conservation scenarios. Although the combined impact is more significant to flood frequency change than individual scenarios, it does not linearly increase flood frequency. Changes in flood frequency are more sensitive to climate change than land use change in the two catchments for 2050s (2040–2069. Shorter term flood frequency change, 2 and 5 year floods, is highly affected by GCM structure, while longer term flood frequency change above 25 year floods is dominated by natural variability. Projected flood frequency changes more significantly in Johnson creek than Fanno creek. This result indicates that, under expected climate change conditions, an adaptive urban planning based on the conservation scenario could be more effective in less developed Johnson catchment than in the already developed Fanno catchment.

  11. Assessing the impact of land use change on hydrology by ensemble modeling (LUCHEM) III: Scenario analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huisman, J.A.; Breuer, L.; Bormann, H.; Bronstert, A.; Croke, B.F.W.; Frede, H.-G.; Graff, T.; Hubrechts, L.; Jakeman, A.J.; Kite, G.; Lanini, J.; Leavesley, G.; Lettenmaier, D.P.; Lindstrom, G.; Seibert, J.; Sivapalan, M.; Viney, N.R.; Willems, P.

    2009-01-01

    An ensemble of 10 hydrological models was applied to the same set of land use change scenarios. There was general agreement about the direction of changes in the mean annual discharge and 90% discharge percentile predicted by the ensemble members, although a considerable range in the magnitude of predictions for the scenarios and catchments under consideration was obvious. Differences in the magnitude of the increase were attributed to the different mean annual actual evapotranspiration rates for each land use type. The ensemble of model runs was further analyzed with deterministic and probabilistic ensemble methods. The deterministic ensemble method based on a trimmed mean resulted in a single somewhat more reliable scenario prediction. The probabilistic reliability ensemble averaging (REA) method allowed a quantification of the model structure uncertainty in the scenario predictions. It was concluded that the use of a model ensemble has greatly increased our confidence in the reliability of the model predictions. ?? 2008 Elsevier Ltd.

  12. Mathematical modeling of a vehicle crash test based on elasto-plastic unloading scenarios of spring-mass models

    OpenAIRE

    Pawlus, Witold; Karimi, Hamid Reza; Robbersmyr, Kjell G.

    2010-01-01

    This paper investigates the usability of spring which exhibit nonlinear force-deflection characteristic in the area of mathematical modeling of vehicle crash. We present a method which allows us to obtain parameters of the spring-mass model basing on the full-scale experimental data analysis. Since vehicle collision is a dynamic event, it involves such phenomena as rebound and energy dissipation. Three different spring unloading scenarios (elastic, plastic, and elasto-plastic) are covered and...

  13. Mathematical modeling of a vehicle crash test based on elasto-plastic unloading scenarios of spring-mass models

    OpenAIRE

    2011-01-01

    This paper investigates the usability of spring which exhibit nonlinear force-deflection characteristic in the area of mathematical modeling of vehicle crash. We present a method which allows us to obtain parameters of the spring-mass model basing on the full-scale experimental data analysis. Since vehicle collision is a dynamic event, it involves such phenomena as rebound and energy dissipation. Three different spring unloading scenarios (elastic, plastic, and elasto-plastic) are covered and...

  14. The centricity of presence in scenario-based high fidelity human patient simulation: a model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunnington, Renee M

    2015-01-01

    Enhancing immersive presence has been shown to have influence on learning outcomes in virtual types of simulation. Scenario-based human patient simulation, a mixed reality form, may pose unique challenges for inducing the centricity of presence among participants in simulation. A model for enhancing the centricity of presence in scenario-based human patient simulation is presented here. The model represents a theoretical linkage among the interaction of pedagogical, individual, and group factors that influence the centricity of presence among participants in simulation. Presence may have an important influence on the learning experiences and learning outcomes in scenario-based high fidelity human patient simulation. This report is a follow-up to an article published in 2014 by the author where connections were made to the theoretical basis of presence as articulated by nurse scholars. PMID:25520467

  15. Real-time determination of the worst tsunami scenario based on Earthquake Early Warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Furuya, Takashi; Koshimura, Shunichi; Hino, Ryota; Ohta, Yusaku; Inoue, Takuya

    2016-04-01

    In recent years, real-time tsunami inundation forecasting has been developed with the advances of dense seismic monitoring, GPS Earth observation, offshore tsunami observation networks, and high-performance computing infrastructure (Koshimura et al., 2014). Several uncertainties are involved in tsunami inundation modeling and it is believed that tsunami generation model is one of the great uncertain sources. Uncertain tsunami source model has risk to underestimate tsunami height, extent of inundation zone, and damage. Tsunami source inversion using observed seismic, geodetic and tsunami data is the most effective to avoid underestimation of tsunami, but needs to expect more time to acquire the observed data and this limitation makes difficult to terminate real-time tsunami inundation forecasting within sufficient time. Not waiting for the precise tsunami observation information, but from disaster management point of view, we aim to determine the worst tsunami source scenario, for the use of real-time tsunami inundation forecasting and mapping, using the seismic information of Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) that can be obtained immediately after the event triggered. After an earthquake occurs, JMA's EEW estimates magnitude and hypocenter. With the constraints of earthquake magnitude, hypocenter and scaling law, we determine possible multi tsunami source scenarios and start searching the worst one by the superposition of pre-computed tsunami Green's functions, i.e. time series of tsunami height at offshore points corresponding to 2-dimensional Gaussian unit source, e.g. Tsushima et al., 2014. Scenario analysis of our method consists of following 2 steps. (1) Searching the worst scenario range by calculating 90 scenarios with various strike and fault-position. From maximum tsunami height of 90 scenarios, we determine a narrower strike range which causes high tsunami height in the area of concern. (2) Calculating 900 scenarios that have different strike, dip, length

  16. Risk D and D Rapid Prototype: Scenario Documentation and Analysis Tool

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Report describes process and methodology associated with a rapid prototype tool for integrating project risk analysis and health and safety risk analysis for decontamination and decommissioning projects. The objective of the Decontamination and Decommissioning (D and D) Risk Management Evaluation and Work Sequencing Standardization Project under DOE EM-23 is to recommend or develop practical risk-management tools for decommissioning of nuclear facilities. PNNL has responsibility under this project for recommending or developing computer-based tools that facilitate the evaluation of risks in order to optimize the sequencing of D and D work. PNNL's approach is to adapt, augment, and integrate existing resources rather than to develop a new suite of tools. Methods for the evaluation of H and S risks associated with work in potentially hazardous environments are well-established. Several approaches exist which, collectively, are referred to as process hazard analysis (PHA). A PHA generally involves the systematic identification of accidents, exposures, and other adverse events associated with a given process or work flow. This identification process is usually achieved in a brainstorming environment or by other means of eliciting informed opinion. The likelihoods of adverse events (scenarios) and their associated consequence severities are estimated against pre-defined scales, based on which risk indices are then calculated. A similar process is encoded in various project risk software products that facilitate the quantification of schedule and cost risks associated with adverse scenarios. However, risk models do not generally capture both project risk and H and S risk. The intent of the project reported here is to produce a tool that facilitates the elicitation, characterization, and documentation of both project risk and H and S risk based on defined sequences of D and D activities. By considering alternative D and D sequences, comparison of the predicted risks can

  17. A multivariate copula-based framework for dealing with hazard scenarios and failure probabilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salvadori, G.; Durante, F.; De Michele, C.; Bernardi, M.; Petrella, L.

    2016-05-01

    This paper is of methodological nature, and deals with the foundations of Risk Assessment. Several international guidelines have recently recommended to select appropriate/relevant Hazard Scenarios in order to tame the consequences of (extreme) natural phenomena. In particular, the scenarios should be multivariate, i.e., they should take into account the fact that several variables, generally not independent, may be of interest. In this work, it is shown how a Hazard Scenario can be identified in terms of (i) a specific geometry and (ii) a suitable probability level. Several scenarios, as well as a Structural approach, are presented, and due comparisons are carried out. In addition, it is shown how the Hazard Scenario approach illustrated here is well suited to cope with the notion of Failure Probability, a tool traditionally used for design and risk assessment in engineering practice. All the results outlined throughout the work are based on the Copula Theory, which turns out to be a fundamental theoretical apparatus for doing multivariate risk assessment: formulas for the calculation of the probability of Hazard Scenarios in the general multidimensional case (d≥2) are derived, and worthy analytical relationships among the probabilities of occurrence of Hazard Scenarios are presented. In addition, the Extreme Value and Archimedean special cases are dealt with, relationships between dependence ordering and scenario levels are studied, and a counter-example concerning Tail Dependence is shown. Suitable indications for the practical application of the techniques outlined in the work are given, and two case studies illustrate the procedures discussed in the paper.

  18. SAFRR AND Physics-Based Scenarios: The Power of Scientifically Credible Stories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cox, D. A.; Jones, L.

    2015-12-01

    USGS's SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Project and its predecessor, the Multi Hazards Demonstration Project, uses the latest earth science to develop scenarios so that communities can improve disaster resilience. SAFRR has created detailed physics-based natural-disaster scenarios of a M7.8 San Andreas earthquake in southern California (ShakeOut), atmospheric-river storms rivaling the Great California Flood of 1862 (ARkStorm), a Tohoku-sized earthquake and tsunami in the eastern Aleutians (SAFRR Tsunami), and now a M7.05 quake on the Hayward Fault in the San Francisco Bay area (HayWired), as novel ways of providing science for decision making. Each scenario is scientifically plausible, deterministic, and large enough to demand attention but not too large to be believable. The scenarios address interacting hazards, requiring involvement of multiple science disciplines and user communities. The scenarios routinely expose hitherto unknown or ignored vulnerabilities, most often in cascading effects missed when impacts are considered in isolation. They take advantage of story telling to provide decision makers with clear explanations and justifications for mitigation and preparedness actions, and have been used for national-to-local disaster response exercises and planning. Effectiveness is further leveraged by downscaling the scenarios to local levels. For example, although the ARkStorm scenario describes state-scale events and has been used that way by NASA and the Navy, SAFRR also partnered with FEMA to focus on two local areas, Ventura County in the coastal plain and the mountain setting of Lake Tahoe with downstream impacts in Reno, Sparks and Carson City. Downscaling and focused analyses increased usefulness to user communities, drawing new participants into the study. SAFRR scenarios have also motivated new research to answer questions uncovered by stakeholders, closing the circle of co-evolving disaster-science and disaster-response improvements.

  19. Dynamic scenario quantification based on continuous Markov Monte Carlo method with meta-model of thermal hydraulics for level 2 PSA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    We have established a dynamic scenario quantification method based on the coupling of a Continuous Markov Monte Carlo (CMMC) method and a plant thermal-hydraulics analysis code for level 2 PSA (probabilistic safety assessment). This paper presents meta-analysis coupling model to obtain the dynamic scenario quantification with a reasonable computational cost. The PLOHS (protected-loss-of-heat-sink) accident of a liquid sodium fast reactor is selected as the level 2 PSA scenario in the model. Furthermore, we also discuss categorizing methods of the quantification result because the coupling method differs widely from existing event tree method. (author)

  20. Projection in Future Drought Hazard of South Korea Based on RCP Climate Change Scenario 8.5 Using SPEI

    OpenAIRE

    Byung Sik Kim; In Gi Chang; Jang Hyun Sung; Hae Jin Han

    2016-01-01

    The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) analysis was conducted using monthly precipitation data and temperature data on a 12.5 km × 12.5 km resolution based on a Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 climate change scenario, and the characteristics of drought were identified by the threshold. In addition, the changes in drought severity and intensity were projected using the threshold based on the run-length concept and frequency analysis. As a result of the a...

  1. A scenario analysis of investment options for the Cuban power sector using the MARKAL model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Cuban power sector faces a need for extensive investment in new generating capacity, under a large number of uncertainties regarding future conditions, including: rate of demand growth, fluctuations in fuel prices, access to imported fuel, and access to investment capital for construction of new power plants and development of fuel import infrastructure. To identify cost effective investment strategies under these uncertainties, a supply and power sector MARKAL model was assembled, following an extensive review of available data on the Cuban power system and resource potentials. Two scenarios were assessed, a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario assuming continued moderate electricity load growth and domestic fuel production growth, and a high growth (HI) scenario assuming rapid electricity demand growth, rapid increase in domestic fuel production, and a transition to market pricing of electricity. Within these two scenarios sets, sensitivity analyses were conducted on a number of variables. The implications of least-cost investment strategies for new capacity builds, investment spending requirements, electricity prices, fuel expenditures, and carbon dioxide emissions for each scenario were assessed. Natural gas was found to be the cost effective fuel for new generation across both scenarios and most sensitivity cases, suggesting that access to natural gas, through increased domestic production and LNG import, is a clear priority for further analysis in the Cuban context. (author)

  2. Hawaii Clean Energy Initiative (HCEI) Scenario Analysis: Quantitative Estimates Used to Facilitate Working Group Discussions (2008-2010)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Braccio, R.; Finch, P.; Frazier, R.

    2012-03-01

    This report provides details on the Hawaii Clean Energy Initiative (HCEI) Scenario Analysis to identify potential policy options and evaluate their impact on reaching the 70% HECI goal, present possible pathways to attain the goal based on currently available technology, with an eye to initiatives under way in Hawaii, and provide an 'order-of-magnitude' cost estimate and a jump-start to action that would be adjusted with a better understanding of the technologies and market.

  3. Sensitivity/uncertainty analysis of a borehole scenario comparing Latin Hypercube Sampling and deterministic sensitivity approaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A computer code was used to study steady-state flow for a hypothetical borehole scenario. The model consists of three coupled equations with only eight parameters and three dependent variables. This study focused on steady-state flow as the performance measure of interest. Two different approaches to sensitivity/uncertainty analysis were used on this code. One approach, based on Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS), is a statistical sampling method, whereas, the second approach is based on the deterministic evaluation of sensitivities. The LHS technique is easy to apply and should work well for codes with a moderate number of parameters. Of deterministic techniques, the direct method is preferred when there are many performance measures of interest and a moderate number of parameters. The adjoint method is recommended when there are a limited number of performance measures and an unlimited number of parameters. This unlimited number of parameters capability can be extremely useful for finite element or finite difference codes with a large number of grid blocks. The Office of Nuclear Waste Isolation will use the technique most appropriate for an individual situation. For example, the adjoint method may be used to reduce the scope to a size that can be readily handled by a technique such as LHS. Other techniques for sensitivity/uncertainty analysis, e.g., kriging followed by conditional simulation, will be used also. 15 references, 4 figures, 9 tables

  4. Comparison of HRA methods based on WWER-1000 NPP real and simulated accident scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Full text: Adequate treatment of human interactions in probabilistic safety analysis (PSA) studies is a key to the understanding of accident sequences and their relative importance in overall risk. Human interactions with machines have long been recognized as important contributors to the safe operation of nuclear power plants (NPP). Human interactions affect the ordering of dominant accident sequences and hence have a significant effect on the risk of NPP. By virtue of the ability to combine the treatment of both human and hardware reliability in real accidents, NPP fullscope, multifunctional and computer-based simulators provide a unique way of developing an understanding of the importance of specific human actions for overall plant safety. Context dependent human reliability assessment (HRA) models, such as the holistic decision tree (HDT) and performance evaluation of teamwork (PET) methods, are the so-called second generation HRA techniques. The HDT model has been used for a number of PSA studies. The PET method reflects promising prospects for dealing with dynamic aspects of human performance. The paper presents a comparison of the two HRA techniques for calculation of post-accident human error probability in the PSA. The real and simulated event training scenario 'turbine's stop after loss of feedwater' based on standard PSA model assumptions is designed for WWER-1000 computer simulator and their detailed boundary conditions are described and analyzed. The error probability of post-accident individual actions will be calculated by means of each investigated technique based on student's computer simulator training archives

  5. Power sector scenarios for Thailand: An exploratory analysis 2002-2022

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Power sector scenarios for Thailand are constructed in this paper to represent the range of opportunities and constraints associated with divergent set of technical and policy options. They include Business-As-Usual (BAU), No-New-Coal (NNC), and Green Futures (GF) scenarios over a 20-year period (2002-2022). The results from the BAU scenario show that fossil fuels will continue to dominate electricity generation in Thailand during the study period. Similar results are obtained for the NNC option, although the dependence shifts from coal and oil towards natural gas-based power generation. This may represent a better environmental pathway but an all out shift from coal to natural gas is likely to increase Thailand's dependence on imported fuel, making it more vulnerable to unstable global oil and gas prices. The GF scenario offers a more optimistic route that allows the country to confront its energy security dilemma whilst fulfilling its environmental commitments by giving renewable energy technologies a prominent place in the country's power generation mix. Over the study period, our result showed little difference between the three scenarios in terms of financing new generation plants despite an early misgiving about the viability of an ambitious renewable energy programme. This paper also goes beyond the financial evaluation of each scenario to provide a comparison of the scenarios in terms of their greenhouse gas emissions together with the comparative costs of emissions reductions. Indeed, if such externalities are taken into account to determine 'viability', the GF scenario represents an attractive way forward for the Thai power sector

  6. Power sector scenarios for Thailand: An exploratory analysis 2002-2022

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Power sector scenarios for Thailand are constructed in this paper to represent the range of opportunities and constraints associated with divergent set of technical and policy options. They include Business-As-Usual (BAU), No-New-Coal (NNC), and Green Futures (GF) scenarios over a 20-year period (2002-2022). The results from the BAU scenario show that fossil fuels will continue to dominate electricity generation in Thailand during the study period. Similar results are obtained for the NNC option, although the dependence shifts from coal and oil towards natural gas-based power generation. This may represent a better environmental pathway but an all out shift from coal to natural gas is likely to increase Thailand's dependence on imported fuel, making it more vulnerable to unstable global oil and gas prices. The GF scenario offers a more optimistic route that allows the country to confront its energy security dilemma whilst fulfilling its environmental commitments by giving renewable energy technologies a prominent place in the country's power generation mix. Over the study period, our result showed little difference between the three scenarios in terms of financing new generation plants despite an early misgiving about the viability of an ambitious renewable energy programme. This paper also goes beyond the financial evaluation of each scenario to provide a comparison of the scenarios in terms of their greenhouse gas emissions together with the comparative costs of emissions reductions. Indeed, if such externalities are taken into account to determine 'viability', the GF scenario represents an attractive way forward for the Thai power sector. (author)

  7. vNet Zero Energy for Radio Base Stations- Balearic Scenario

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sabater, Pere; Mihovska, Albena Dimitrova; Pol, Andreu Moia;

    2016-01-01

    The Balearic Islands have one of the best telecommunications infrastructures in Spain, with more than 1500 Radio Base Stations (RBS) covering a total surface of 4.991,66 km². This archipelago has high energy consumption, with high CO2 emissions, due to an electrical energy production system mainly...... based on coal and fossil fuels which is not an environmentally sustainable scenario. The aim of this study is to identify the processes that would reduce the energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions, designing a target scenario featuring "zero CO2 emissions" and "100% renewable energies" in RBS....... The energy costs, CO2 emissions and data traffic data used for the study are generated by a sample of RBS from the Balearic Islands. The results are shown in terms of energy performance for a normal and net zero emissions scenarios....

  8. Scenario based outdoor simulation in pre-hospital trauma care using a simple mannequin model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grier Gareth

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Introduction We describe a system of scenario-based training using simple mannequins under realistic circumstances for the training of pre-hospital care providers. Methods A simple intubatable mannequin or student volunteers are used together with a training version of the equipment used on a routine basis by the pre-hospital care team (doctor + paramedic. Training is conducted outdoors at the base location all year round. The scenarios are led by scenario facilitators who are predominantly senior physicians. Their role is to brief the training team and guide the scenario, results of patient assessment and the simulated responses to interventions and treatment. Pilots, fire-fighters and medical students are utilised in scenarios to enhance realism by taking up roles as bystanders, additional ambulance staff and police. These scenario participants are briefed and introduced to the scene in a realistic manner. After completion of the scenario, the training team would usually be invited to prepare and deliver a hospital handover as they would in a real mission. A formal structured debrief then takes place. Results This training method technique has been used for the training of all London Helicopter Emergency Medical Service (London HEMS doctors and paramedics over the last 24 months. Informal participant feedback suggests that this is a very useful teaching method, both for improving motor skills, critical decision-making, scene management and team interaction. Although formal assessment of this technique has not yet taken place we describe how this type of training is conducted in a busy operational pre-hospital trauma service. Discussion The teaching and maintenance of pre-hospital care skills is essential to an effective pre-hospital trauma care system. Simple mannequin based scenario training is feasible on a day-to-day basis and has the advantages of low cost, rapid set up and turn around. The scope of scenarios is limited only by

  9. Enhanced adaptive management: integrating decision analysis, scenario analysis and environmental modeling for the Everglades.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Convertino, Matteo; Foran, Christy M; Keisler, Jeffrey M; Scarlett, Lynn; LoSchiavo, Andy; Kiker, Gregory A; Linkov, Igor

    2013-01-01

    We propose to enhance existing adaptive management efforts with a decision-analytical approach that can guide the initial selection of robust restoration alternative plans and inform the need to adjust these alternatives in the course of action based on continuously acquired monitoring information and changing stakeholder values. We demonstrate an application of enhanced adaptive management for a wetland restoration case study inspired by the Florida Everglades restoration effort. We find that alternatives designed to reconstruct the pre-drainage flow may have a positive ecological impact, but may also have high operational costs and only marginally contribute to meeting other objectives such as reduction of flooding. Enhanced adaptive management allows managers to guide investment in ecosystem modeling and monitoring efforts through scenario and value of information analyses to support optimal restoration strategies in the face of uncertain and changing information. PMID:24113217

  10. MisTec: A software application for supporting space exploration scenario options and technology development analysis and planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horsham, Gary A. P.

    1991-01-01

    The structure and composition of a new, emerging software application, which models and analyzes space exploration scenario options for feasibility based on technology development projections is presented. The software application consists of four main components: a scenario generator for designing and inputting scenario options and constraints; a processor which performs algorithmic coupling and options analyses of mission activity requirements and technology capabilities; a results display which graphically and textually shows coupling and options analysis results; and a data/knowledge base which contains information on a variety of mission activities and (power and propulsion) technology system capabilities. The general long-range study process used by NASA to support recent studies is briefly introduced to provide the primary basis for comparison for discussing the potential advantages to be gained from developing and applying this king of application. A hypothetical example of a scenario option to facilitate the best conceptual understanding of what the application is, how it works, or the operating methodology, and when it might be applied is presented.

  11. MisTec - A software application for supporting space exploration scenario options and technology development analysis and planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horsham, Gary A. P.

    1992-01-01

    This structure and composition of a new, emerging software application, which models and analyzes space exploration scenario options for feasibility based on technology development projections is presented. The software application consists of four main components: a scenario generator for designing and inputting scenario options and constraints; a processor which performs algorithmic coupling and options analyses of mission activity requirements and technology capabilities; a results display which graphically and textually shows coupling and options analysis results; and a data/knowledge base which contains information on a variety of mission activities and (power and propulsion) technology system capabilities. The general long-range study process used by NASA to support recent studies is briefly introduced to provide the primary basis for comparison for discussing the potential advantages to be gained from developing and applying this kind of application. A hypothetical example of a scenario option to facilitate the best conceptual understanding of what the application is, how it works, or the operating methodology, and when it might be applied is presented.

  12. Expanded Capabilities for the Hydrogen Financial Analysis Scenario Tool (H2FAST)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bush, Brian; Melaina, Marc; Penev, Michael

    2016-06-08

    This presentation describes how NREL expanded the capabilities for the Hydrogen Financial Analysis Scenario Tool (H2FAST) in FY16. It was presented at the U.S. Department of Energy Hydrogen and Fuel Cells Program 2016 Annual Merit Review and Peer Evaluation Meeting on June 8, 2016, in Washington, D.C.

  13. Scenario Analysis of Tillage, Residue and Fertilization Management Effects on Soil Organic Carbon Dynamics

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Xiao-Bin; CAI Dian-Xiong; W.B.HOOGMOED; O.OENEMA; U.D.PERDOK

    2005-01-01

    Based on data from 10-year field experiments on residue/fertilizer management in the dryland farming region of northern China, Century model was used to simulate the site-specific ecosystem dynamics through adjustment of the model's parameters, and the applicability of the model to propose soil organic carbon (SOC) management temporally and spatially, in cases such as of tillage/residue/fertilization management options, was identified via scenario analysis.Results between simulations and actual measurements were in close agreement when appropriate applications of stover,manure and inorganic fertilizer were combined. Simulations of extreme C/N ratios with added organic materials tended to underestimate the measured effects. Scenarios of changed tillage methods, residue practices and fertilization options showed potential to maintain and enhance SOC in the long run, while increasing inorganic N slowed down the SOC turnover rate but did not create a net C sink without any organic C input. The Century model simulation showed a good relationship between annual C inputs to the soil and the rate of C sequestration in the top 20 cm layer and provided quantitative estimations of changes in parameters crucial for sustainable land use and management. Conservation tillage practices for sustainable land use should be integrated with residue management and appreciable organic and inorganic fertilizer application, adapted according to the local residue resource, soil fertility and production conditions. At least 50%residue return into the soil was needed annually for maintenance of SOC balance, and manure amendment was important for enhancement of SOC in small crop-livestock systems in which crop residue land application was limited.

  14. Pre-Service Teachers' Perspectives on Using Scenario-Based Virtual Worlds in Science Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kennedy-Clark, Shannon

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents the findings of a study on the current knowledge and attitudes of pre-service teachers on the use of scenario-based multi-user virtual environments in science education. The 28 participants involved in the study were introduced to "Virtual Singapura," a multi-user virtual environment, and completed an open-ended questionnaire.…

  15. THE SCENARIOS APPROACH TO ATTENUATION-BASED REMEDIES FOR INORGANIC AND RADIONUCLIDE CONTAMINANTS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vangelas, K.; Rysz, M.; Truex, M.; Brady, P.; Newell, C.; Denham, M.

    2011-08-04

    Guidance materials based on use of conceptual model scenarios were developed to assist evaluation and implementation of attenuation-based remedies for groundwater and vadose zones contaminated with inorganic and radionuclide contaminants. The Scenarios approach is intended to complement the comprehensive information provided in the US EPA's Technical Protocol for Monitored Natural Attenuation (MNA) of Inorganic Contaminants by providing additional information on site conceptual models and extending the evaluation to consideration of Enhanced Attenuation approaches. The conceptual models incorporate the notion of reactive facies, defined as units with hydrogeochemical properties that are different from surrounding units and that react with contaminants in distinct ways. The conceptual models also incorporate consideration of biogeochemical gradients, defined as boundaries between different geochemical conditions that have been induced by waste disposal or other natural phenomena. Gradients can change over time when geochemical conditions from one area migrate into another, potentially affecting contaminant mobility. A recognition of gradients allows the attenuation-affecting conditions of a site to be projected into the future. The Scenarios approach provides a stepwise process to identify an appropriate category of conceptual model and refine it for a specific site. Scenario materials provide links to pertinent sections in the EPA technical protocol and present information about contaminant mobility and important controlling mechanism for attenuation-based remedies based on the categories of conceptual models.

  16. Assessing the Psychometric Properties of a Scenario-Based Measure of Achievement Guilt and Shame

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Ted; Sharp, Jessica; Alexander, James

    2008-01-01

    In this study, the psychometric properties of the scenario-based Achievement Guilt and Shame Scale (AGSS) were established. The AGSS and scales assessing interpersonal guilt and shame, high standards, overgeneralization, self-criticism, self-esteem, academic self-concept, fear of failure, and tendency to respond in a socially desirable manner were…

  17. An Ontology-Based Scenario for Teaching the Management of Health Information Systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jahn, Franziska; Schaaf, Michael; Kahmann, Christian; Tahar, Kais; Kücherer, Christian; Paech, Barbara; Winter, Alfred

    2016-01-01

    The terminology for the management of health information systems is characterized by complexity and polysemy which is both challenging for medical informatics students and practitioners. SNIK, an ontology of information management (IMI) in hospitals, brings together IM concepts from different literature sources. Based on SNIK, we developed a blended learning scenario to teach medical informatics students IM concepts and their relationships. In proof-of-concept teaching units, students found the use of SNIK in teaching and learning motivating and useful. In the next step, the blended learning scenario will be rolled out to an international course for medical informatics students. PMID:27577404

  18. A Scenario-Based Protocol Checker for Public-Key Authentication Scheme

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saito, Takamichi

    Security protocol provides communication security for the internet. One of the important features of it is authentication with key exchange. Its correctness is a requirement of the whole of the communication security. In this paper, we introduce three attack models realized as their attack scenarios, and provide an authentication-protocol checker for applying three attack-scenarios based on the models. We also utilize it to check two popular security protocols: Secure SHell (SSH) and Secure Socket Layer/Transport Layer Security (SSL/TLS).

  19. Scenario-based analyses of energy system development and its environmental implications in Thailand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thailand is one of the fastest growing energy-intensive economies in Southeast Asia. To formulate sound energy policies in the country, it is important to understand the impact of energy use on the environment over the long-period. This study examines energy system development and its associated greenhouse gas and local air pollutant emissions under four scenarios in Thailand through the year 2050. The four scenarios involve different growth paths for economy, population, energy efficiency and penetration of renewable energy technologies. The paper assesses the changes in primary energy supply mix, sector-wise final energy demand, energy import dependency and CO2, SO2 and NO x emissions under four scenarios using end-use based Asia-Pacific Integrated Assessment Model (AIM/Enduse) of Thailand

  20. Analysis and Comparison of 24 GHz cmWave Radio Propagation in Urban and Suburban Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rodriguez, Ignacio; Portela Lopes de Almeida, Erika; Abreu, Renato; Lauridsen, Mads; Loureiro, Alexandre; Mogensen, Preben Elgaard

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents a measurement-based comparison of cm-wave propagation in urban and suburban scenarios at 24 GHz with transmitter antennas located above rooftop level. Different sets of directional measurements, exploring the full azimuth and the range from -30 to +30 degrees in elevation, were...

  1. Scenario analysis for nutrient emission reduction in the European inland waters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Despite a large body of legislation, high nutrient loads are still emitted in European inland waters. In the present study we evaluate a set of alternative scenarios aiming at reducing nitrogen and phosphorus emissions from anthropogenic activities to all European Seas. In particular, we tested the full implementation of the European Urban Waste Water Directive, which controls emissions from point source. In addition, we associated the full implementation of this Directive with a ban of phosphorus-based laundry detergents. Then we tested two human diet scenarios and their impacts on nutrient emissions. We also developed a scenario based on an optimal use of organic manure. The impacts of all our scenarios were evaluated using a statistical model of nitrogen and phosphorus fate (GREEN) linked to an agro-economic model (CAPRI). We show that the ban of phosphorus-based laundry detergents coupled with the full implementation of the Urban Waste Water Directive is the most effective approach for reducing phosphorus emissions from human based activities. Concerning nitrogen, the highest reductions are obtained with the optimized use of organic manure. (paper)

  2. A structured process to develop scenarios for use in evaluation of an evidence-based approach in clinical decision making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manns PJ

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Patricia J Manns, Johanna DarrahDepartment of Physical Therapy, Faculty of Rehabilitation Medicine, University of Alberta, Edmonton, CanadaBackground and purpose: Scenarios are used as the basis from which to evaluate the use of the components of evidence-based practice in decision making, yet there are few examples of a standardized process of scenario writing. The aim of this paper is to describe a step-by-step scenario writing method used in the context of the authors’ curriculum research study.Methods: Scenario writing teams included one physical therapy clinician and one academic staff member. There were four steps in the scenario development process: (1 identify prevalent condition and brainstorm interventions; (2 literature search; (3 develop scenario framework; and (4 write scenario.Results: Scenarios focused only on interventions, not diagnostic or prognostic problems. The process led to two types of scenarios – ones that provided an intervention with strong research evidence and others where the intervention had weak evidence to support its use. The end product of the process was a scenario that incorporates aspects of evidence-based decision making and can be used as the basis for evaluation.Conclusion: The use of scenarios has been very helpful to capture therapists’ reasoning processes. The scenario development process was applied in an education context as part of a final evaluation of graduating clinical physical therapy students.Keywords: physical therapists, clinical decision making, evaluation, curriculum

  3. Low carbon scenarios for transport in India: Co-benefits analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dhar, Subash; Shukla, P.R.

    2015-01-01

    imports, besides causing more CO2 emissions. The government of India wants to achieve the climate goals through a sustainability approach that simultaneously addresses other environment and developmental challenges. This paper analyses a sustainable low carbon transport (SLCT) scenario based on...... sustainable strategies for passenger and freight mobility, vehicle technologies and fuel using global CO2 prices that correspond to 2 °C global stabilisation target. The scenarios span from years 2010 to 2050 and are analysed using the energy system model-ANSWER MARKAL. The SLCT scenario has improved energy...... security (cumulative oil demand lower by 3100 Mtoe), improved air quality (PM 2.5 emissions never exceed the existing levels) and the cumulative CO2 emissions are lower by 13 billion t CO2 thereby showing that achieving development objectives with CO2 co-benefits is feasible....

  4. Scenarios of Future Water use on Mediterranean Islands based on an Integrated Assessment of Water Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lange, M. A.

    2006-12-01

    The availability of water in sufficient quantities and adequate quality presents considerable problems on Mediterranean islands. Because of their isolation and thus the impossibility to draw on more distant or more divers aquifers, they rely entirely on precipitation as natural replenishing mechanism. Recent observations indicate decreasing precipitation, increasing evaporation and steadily growing demand for water on the islands. Future climate change will exacerbate this problem, thus increasing the already pertinent vulnerability to droughts. Responsible planning of water management strategies requires scenarios of future supply and demand through an integrated assessment including climate scenarios based on regional climate modeling as well as scenarios on changes in societal and economical determinants of water demand. Constructing such strategies necessitates a thorough understanding about the interdependencies and feedbacks between physical/hydrological and socio-economic determinants of water balances on an island. This has to be based on a solid understanding of past and present developments of these drivers. In the framework of the EU-funded MEDIS project (Towards sustainable water use on Mediterranean Islands: addressing conflicting demands and varying hydrological, social and economic conditions, EVK1-CT-2001-00092), detailed investigations on present vulnerabilities and adaptation strategies to droughts have been carried out on Mallorca, Corsica, Sicily, Crete and Cyprus. This was based on an interdisciplinary study design including hydrological, geophysical, agricultural-, social and political sciences investigations. A central element of the study has been the close interaction with stakeholders on the islands and their contribution to strategy formulation. An important result has been a specification of vulnerability components including: a physical/environmental-, an economical/regulatory- and a social/institutional/political component. Their

  5. Validation of a model with climatic and flow scenario analysis: case of Lake Burrumbeet in southeastern Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yihdego, Yohannes; Webb, John

    2016-05-01

    Forecast evaluation is an important topic that addresses the development of reliable hydrological probabilistic forecasts, mainly through the use of climate uncertainties. Often, validation has no place in hydrology for most of the times, despite the parameters of a model are uncertain. Similarly, the structure of the model can be incorrectly chosen. A calibrated and verified dynamic hydrologic water balance spreadsheet model has been used to assess the effect of climate variability on Lake Burrumbeet, southeastern Australia. The lake level has been verified to lake level, lake volume, lake surface area, surface outflow and lake salinity. The current study aims to increase lake level confidence model prediction through historical validation for the year 2008-2013, under different climatic scenario. Based on the observed climatic condition (2008-2013), it fairly matches with a hybridization of scenarios, being the period interval (2008-2013), corresponds to both dry and wet climatic condition. Besides to the hydrologic stresses uncertainty, uncertainty in the calibrated model is among the major drawbacks involved in making scenario simulations. In line with this, the uncertainty in the calibrated model was tested using sensitivity analysis and showed that errors in the model can largely be attributed to erroneous estimates of evaporation and rainfall, and surface inflow to a lesser. The study demonstrates that several climatic scenarios should be analysed, with a combination of extreme climate, stream flow and climate change instead of one assumed climatic sequence, to improve climate variability prediction in the future. Performing such scenario analysis is a valid exercise to comprehend the uncertainty with the model structure and hydrology, in a meaningful way, without missing those, even considered as less probable, ultimately turned to be crucial for decision making and will definitely increase the confidence of model prediction for management of the water

  6. The Application of Scenario Analysis in the Overall Planning of Land Use: A Case Study of Shangluo City in Shaanxi Province

    OpenAIRE

    Sun, Pi-ling; Yang, Hai-juan

    2012-01-01

    The overall planning of land use is a complex process of joint action of social system, natural and economic conditions. On the basis of summarizing the existing researches, we select Shaanxi's Shangluo City, located in the Qinba mountainous area as the study object, to expound the concept and steps of scenario analysis based on land use change data, under the guidance of ecological safety and sustainable development theory. We design four different scenarios of land use planning program in S...

  7. Technology penetration and capital stock turnover. Lessons from IEA scenario analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Philibert, C. [International Energy Agency IEA, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development OECD, Paris (France)

    2007-05-15

    The aim of this paper is to reflect on the significant differences between the emissions reductions projections in mid-term and long-term scenarios, and to explore their policy implications. It draws mainly on two recent IEA publications: the 2006 World Energy Outlook (WEO), which contains energy and energy-related CO2 projections up to 2030, and the 2006-published Energy Technology Perspectives (ETP), which considers scenarios and strategies up to 2050. The analysis focuses on a comparison of the Alternative Policy Scenario of the 2006 WEO, and the various Accelerated Technology (ACT) Scenarios in the ETP. The next section provides the necessary background on these two publications and their energy-related CO2 emissions by 2030 and 2050, respectively. The third section investigates in some more depth the reasons for the large differences in the amount of emission reductions at these dates. Capital stock turnover and technology maturation lead times, in particular, are identified as primary reasons for the differences. The fourth section suggests several possible policy conclusions that can be drawn from this analysis. They include thought pieces with respect to the action required in the short-term; to the necessity of long-term signals; to the advantages and limitations of short-term targets; and to the opportunities and challenges the international community faces with respect to emission reductions in developing countries.

  8. Photodegradation of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in soils under a climate change base scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marquès, Montse; Mari, Montse; Audí-Miró, Carme; Sierra, Jordi; Soler, Albert; Nadal, Martí; Domingo, José L

    2016-04-01

    The photodegradation of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in two typical Mediterranean soils, either coarse- or fine-textured, was here investigated. Soil samples, spiked with the 16 US EPA priority PAHs, were incubated in a climate chamber at stable conditions of temperature (20 °C) and light (9.6 W m(-2)) for 28 days, simulating a climate change base scenario. PAH concentrations in soils were analyzed throughout the experiment, and correlated with data obtained by means of Microtox(®) ecotoxicity test. Photodegradation was found to be dependent on exposure time, molecular weight of each hydrocarbon, and soil texture. Fine-textured soil was able to enhance sorption, being PAHs more photodegraded than in coarse-textured soil. According to the EC50 values reported by Microtox(®), a higher detoxification was observed in fine-textured soil, being correlated with the outcomes of the analytical study. Significant photodegradation rates were detected for a number of PAHs, namely phenanthrene, anthracene, benzo(a)pyrene, and indeno(123-cd)pyrene. Benzo(a)pyrene, commonly used as an indicator for PAH pollution, was completely removed after 7 days of light exposure. In addition to the PAH chemical analysis and the ecotoxicity tests, a hydrogen isotope analysis of benzo(a)pyrene was also carried out. The degradation of this specific compound was associated to a high enrichment in (2)H, obtaining a maximum δ(2)H isotopic shift of +232‰. This strong isotopic effect observed in benzo(a)pyrene suggests that compound-specific isotope analysis (CSIA) may be a powerful tool to monitor in situ degradation of PAHs. Moreover, hydrogen isotopes of benzo(a)pyrene evidenced a degradation process of unknown origin occurring in the darkness. PMID:26841292

  9. AGC Tuning Of TCPS Based Hydrothermal System under Open Market Scenario with Particle Swarm Optimization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Srinivasa Rao

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper demonstrates the analysis of Automatic generation control (AGC of a two-area interconnected thyristor controlled phase shifter (TCPS based hydrothermal system in the continuous mode under open market scenario. Further the use of particle swarm optimization in optimizing the value of integral controller has also been reported. The effects of nonlinearities like deadband and generation rate constraint on the system have also been investigated. Open transmission access and the evolving of more socialized companies for generation, transmission and distribution affects the formulation of AGC problem. So the traditional AGC two-area system is modified to take into account the effect of bilateral contracts on the dynamics. A control strategy using TCPS is proposed to provide active control of system frequency. Gain settings of the integral controllers without and with TCPS are optimized using the particle swarm optimization following a step load disturbance in either of the areas. The results reported in this paper demonstrate the effectiveness of the particle swarm optimizer (PSO in the tuning of value of integral controller. The enhancement in the dynamic response of the power system is verified through simulation results.

  10. A scenario-based clean gasoline production strategy for China National Petroleum Corporation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Liu Haiyan; Yu Jianning; Fan Yu; Shi Gang; Bao Xiaojun

    2008-01-01

    Facing increasingly strict environmental regulations on transportation fuels,China National Petroleum Corp.(CNPC),the second largest supplier of petroleum products in China,needs to upgrade its transportation fuels.Using the scenario-based analysis method,this paper analyzes how the emission related properties,including antiknock index,and sulfur,olefin,benzene and aromatics contents of gasoline produced by CNPC,vary with the change in the configuration of gasoline production units in the future 5-15 years.The results showed that for CNPC to upgrade its gasoline,the share of fluid catalytic cracking(FCC)naphtha must be reduced,but just increasing reformate or alkylate and isomerate will result in excessive increase in benzene and aromatics contents or a great loss of gasoline octane number.Therefore,CNPC should suitably control the capacity of its FCC units and increase the capacity of reformer,alkylation and isomerization units.Most importantly,CNPC should dramatically expand the capacity of its hydrotreating or non-hydrotreating gasoline upgrading units to decrease the olefin and sulfur contents in FCC gasoline that takes a dominant share of about 80% in the gasoline pool of China.

  11. Free boundary analysis of advanced scenarios in ITER modelled by CRONOS and DINA-CH

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Full text of publication follows. The plasma performance, heating, current drive and shape characteristics for accessing advanced scenarios in ITER (hybrid and steady-state regimes) have been analyzed in free boundary simulations performed with the CRONOS and DINA-CH codes. For the hybrid scenario, a sensitivity analysis shows that the operational window which leads to an optimum control of q- and pressure-profiles is narrow as small changes on parameters like density peaking, H98(y,2) factor, heating and current drive schemes, plasma shape or q95 lead to big changes on the optimum scenario found. A steady-state regime, with no Internal Transport Barrier, is obtained by reducing the total current from the 12 MA considered for the hybrid scenario to 10 MA by keeping the magnetic field at 5.3 T. For this scenario, the inclusion of Lower Hybrid waves is necessary for achieving a regime with 100% of non-inductive current. In particular, the fact that the density is peaked, with a peaking factor of 1.4, helps the penetration of the waves and increases the current drive efficiency since the density at the top of the pedestal is lower compared to the typical flat-density simulations performed in the past which had the same Greenwald fraction, 0.8. It is shown how the non-linear interplay between the plasma shape, q profile, current drive and bootstrap current has forced the development of a time dependent controller to prevent and control the formation of a current hole due to the high amount of non-inductive current, which represents 70% of the total current. Both scenarios were achieved within the technical limits of ITER, specifically the PF coil currents, voltages, forces and fields. (authors)

  12. Future drought scenarios for the Greater Alpine Region based on dynamical downscaling experiments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haslinger, Klaus; Anders, Ivonne; Schöner, Wolfgang

    2014-05-01

    Large scale droughts have major ecologic, agricultural, economic as well as societal impacts by reducing crop yield, producing low flows in river systems or by limiting the public water supply. Under the perspective of rising temperatures and possibly altered precipitation regimes in the upcoming decades due to global climate change, we accomplish an assessment of future drought characteristics for the Greater Alpine Region (GAR) with regional climate model simulations. This study consists of two parts: First, the ability of the Regional Climate Model COSMO-CLM (CCLM) to simulate drought conditions in the past in space and time is evaluated. Second, an analysis of future drought scenarios for the GAR is conducted. As a drought index the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) is used. For the evaluation of the Regional Climate Model in the past, simulations driven by ERA-40 are compared to observations. The gridded observational datasets of the HISTALP-database are used for evaluation in the first place. To assess the skill of CCLM, correlation coefficients between the SPEI of model simulations and gridded observations stratified by seasons and time scales are accomplished. For the analysis of future changes in the drought characteristics, four scenario runs are investigated. These are ECHAM5 and HadCM3 driven CCLM runs for the SRES scenarios A1B, A2 and B1. The SPEI is calculated spanning both the C20 and the scenario runs and are therefore regarded as transient simulations. Generally, trends to dryer annual mean conditions are apparent in each of the scenario runs, whereas the signal is rather strong in summer, contradicted by winter which shows a slight increase in precipitation north of the Alps. This in turn leads to higher variability of the SPEI in the future, as differences between winter (wetter or no change) and summer (considerably dryer) grow larger.

  13. Modeling urban expansion policy scenarios using an agent-based approach for Guangzhou Metropolitan Region of China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guangjin Tian

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Policy makers and the human decision processes of urban planning have an impact on urban expansion. The behaviors and decision modes of regional authority, real estate developer, resident, and farmer agents and their interactions can be simulated by the analytical hierarchy process (AHP method. The driving factors are regressed with urban dynamics instead of static land-use types. Agents’ behaviors and decision modes have an impact on the urban dynamic pattern by adjusting parameter weights. We integrate an agent-based model (ABM with AHP to investigate a complex decision-making process and future urban dynamic processes. Three policy scenarios for baseline development, rapid development, and green land protection have been applied to predict the future development patterns of the Guangzhou metropolitan region. A future policy scenario analysis can help policy makers to understand the possible results. These individuals can adjust their policies and decisions according to their different objectives.

  14. Scenario-based verification of real-time systems using UPPAAL

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Li, Shuhao; Belaguer, Sandie; David, Alexandre;

    2010-01-01

    Abstract This paper proposes two approaches to tool-supported automatic verification of dense real-time systems against scenario-based requirements, where a system is modeled as a network of timed automata (TAs) or as a set of driving live sequence charts (LSCs), and a requirement is specified as a...... separate monitored LSC chart. We make timed extensions to a kernel subset of the LSC language and define a trace-based semantics. By translating a monitored LSC chart to a behavior-equivalent observer TA and then non-intrusively composing this observer with the original TA modeled real-time system, the...... problem of scenario-based verification reduces to a computation tree logic (CTL) real-time model checking problem. In case the real time system is modeled as a set of driving LSC charts, we translate these driving charts and the monitored chart into a behavior-equivalent network of TAs by using a “one...

  15. Managing Obstetric Emergencies and Trauma (MOET structured skills training in Armenia, utilising models and reality based scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Israelyan Musheg

    2002-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Mortality rates in Western Europe have fallen significantly over the last 50 years. Maternal mortality now averages 10 maternal deaths per 100,000 live births but in some of the Newly Independent States of the former Soviet Union, the ratio is nearly 4 times higher. The availability of skilled attendants to prevent, detect and manage major obstetric complications may be the single most important factor in preventing maternal deaths. A modern, multidisciplinary, scenario and model based training programme has been established in the UK (Managing Obstetric Emergencies and Trauma (MOET and allows specialist obstetricians to learn or revise the undertaking of procedures using models, and to have their skills tested in scenarios. Methods Given the success of the MOET course in the UK, the organisers were keen to evaluate it in another setting (Armenia. Pre-course knowledge and practice questionnaires were administered. In an exploratory analysis, post-course results were compared to pre-course answers obtained by the same interviewer. Results All candidates showed an improvement in post-course scores. The range was far narrower afterwards (167–188 than before (85–129.5. In the individual score analysis only two scenarios showed a non-significant change (cord prolapse and breech delivery. Conclusion This paper demonstrates the reliability of the model based scenarios, with a highly significant improvement in obstetric emergency management. However, clinical audit will be required to measure the full impact of training by longer term follow up. Audit of delays, specific obstetric complications, referrals and near misses may all be amenable to review.

  16. Scenario Analysis With Economic-Energy Systems Models Coupled to Simple Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanson, D. A.; Kotamarthi, V. R.; Foster, I. T.; Franklin, M.; Zhu, E.; Patel, D. M.

    2008-12-01

    Here, we compare two scenarios based on Stanford University's Energy Modeling Forum Study 22 on global cooperative and non-cooperative climate policies. In the former, efficient transition paths are implemented including technology Research and Development effort, energy conservation programs, and price signals for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In the non-cooperative case, some countries try to relax their regulations and be free riders. Total emissions and costs are higher in the non-cooperative scenario. The simulations, including climate impacts, run to the year 2100. We use the Argonne AMIGA-MARS economic-energy systems model, the Texas AM University's Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model (FASOM), and the University of Illinois's Integrated Science Assessment Model (ISAM), with offline coupling between the FASOM and AMIGA-MARS and an online coupling between AMIGA-MARS and ISAM. This set of models captures the interaction of terrestrial systems, land use, crops and forests, climate change, human activity, and energy systems. Our scenario simulations represent dynamic paths over which all the climate, terrestrial, economic, and energy technology equations are solved simultaneously Special attention is paid to biofuels and how they interact with conventional gasoline/diesel fuel markets. Possible low-carbon penetration paths are based on estimated costs for new technologies, including cellulosic biomass, coal-to-liquids, plug-in electric vehicles, solar and nuclear energy. We explicitly explore key uncertainties that affect mitigation and adaptation scenarios.

  17. Analysis of Concentrating Solar Power with Thermal Energy Storage in a California 33% Renewable Scenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Denholm, P.; Wan, Y. H.; Hummon, M.; Mehos, M.

    2013-03-01

    This analysis evaluates CSP with TES in a scenario where California derives 33% of its electricity from renewable energy sources. It uses a commercial grid simulation tool to examine the avoided operational and capacity costs associated with CSP and compares this value to PV and a baseload generation with constant output. Overall, the analysis demonstrates several properties of dispatchable CSP, including the flexibility to generate during periods of high value and avoid generation during periods of lower value. Of note in this analysis is the fact that significant amount of operational value is derived from the provision of reserves in the case where CSP is allowed to provide these services. This analysis also indicates that the 'optimal' configuration of CSP could vary as a function of renewable penetration, and each configuration will need to be evaluated in terms of its ability to provide dispatchable energy, reserves, and firm capacity. The model can be used to investigate additional scenarios involving alternative technology options and generation mixes, applying these scenarios within California or in other regions of interest.

  18. Adapting for uncertainty : a scenario analysis of U.S. technology energy futures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The pattern of future evolution for United States (US) energy markets is highly uncertain at this time. This article provided details of a study using a scenario analysis technique to investigate key energy issues affecting decision-making processes in the United States. Four scenarios were used to examine the driving forces and critical uncertainties that may shape United States energy markets and the economy for the next 50 years: (1) a reference scenario benchmarked to the 2002 annual energy outlook forecast, (2) abundant and inexpensive supplies of oil and gas, (3) a chaotic future beset with international conflict, faltering new technologies, environmental policy difficulties and slowed economic growth, and (4) a technology-driven market in which a variety of forces converge to reshape the energy sector. Each of the scenarios was quantified using a computable general equilibrium model known as the All Modular Industry Growth Assessment (AMIGA) model. Results suggested that the range of different outcomes for the US is broad. However, energy use is expected to increase in all 4 scenarios. It was observed that the introduction of policies to encourage capital stock turnover and accelerate the commercialization of high efficiency, low-emissions technologies may reduce future primary energy demand. The analysis also showed that lower energy prices may lead to higher economic growth. Policies introduced to improve energy efficiency and accelerate the introduction of new technologies did not appreciably reduce the prospects for economic growth. Results also suggested that lower fossil fuel prices discourage investments in energy efficiency or new technologies and may mask the task of responding to future surprises. It was concluded that an investment path that emphasizes both energy efficiency improvements and advanced energy supply technologies will provide economic growth conditions similar to the implementation of lower energy prices. 11 refs., 1 tab., 2 figs

  19. Developing scenarios to assess future landslide risks: a model-based approach applied to mountainous regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vacquie, Laure; Houet, Thomas

    2016-04-01

    In the last century, European mountain landscapes have experienced significant transformations. Natural and anthropogenic changes, climate changes, touristic and industrial development, socio-economic interactions, and their implications in terms of LUCC (land use and land cover changes) have directly influenced the spatial organization and vulnerability of mountain landscapes. This study is conducted as part of the SAMCO project founded by the French National Science Agency (ANR). It aims at developing a methodological approach, combining various tools, modelling platforms and methods, to identify vulnerable regions to landslide hazards accounting for futures LUCC. It presents an integrated approach combining participative scenarios and a LULC changes simulation models to assess the combined effects of LUCC and climate change on landslide risks in the Cauterets valley (French Pyrenees Mountains) up to 2100. Through vulnerability and risk mapping, the objective is to gather information to support landscape planning and implement land use strategies with local stakeholders for risk management. Four contrasting scenarios are developed and exhibit contrasting trajectories of socio-economic development. Prospective scenarios are based on national and international socio-economic contexts relying on existing assessment reports. The methodological approach integrates knowledge from local stakeholders to refine each scenario during their construction and to reinforce their plausibility and relevance by accounting for local specificities, e.g. logging and pastoral activities, touristic development, urban planning, etc. A process-based model, the Forecasting Scenarios for Mountains (ForeSceM) model, developed on the Dinamica Ego modelling platform is used to spatially allocate futures LUCC for each prospective scenario. Concurrently, a spatial decision support tool, i.e. the SYLVACCESS model, is used to identify accessible areas for forestry in scenario projecting logging

  20. Gas allocation plans based on failures scenarios: PETROBRAS-Gas and Power Sector

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Faertes, Denise; Vieira, Flavia; Saker, Leonardo; Heil, Luciana [PETROBRAS, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Galvao, Joao [DNV, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2009-07-01

    The purpose of this paper is to present gas allocation plans developed for PETROBRAS Gas and Power Sector, considering failure to supply scenarios that could occur along gas supply network. Those scenarios, as well as the associated contingency plans, were identified and validated by an experienced team, composed by engineers and operators from different PETROBRAS sectors. The key issue of concern was the anticipation of possible undesired scenarios that could imply on contract shortfalls, the evaluation of possible maneuvers, taking into account best gas delivery allocation. Different software were used for the simulation of best gas supply allocation and for the verification of delivery pressure and conditions for final consumers. The ability of being capable of dealing with undesired or crisis scenarios, based on suitable anticipation levels, is, nowadays, a highly valuable attribute to be presented by competitive corporations, for best crisis management and prompt recovery response. Those plans are being used by Gas and Power Gas Operation Control Centre and as an input for reliability modeling of gas supply chain. (author)

  1. Performance Analysis of Ad Hoc Routing Protocols in City Scenario for VANET

    Science.gov (United States)

    Das, Sanjoy; Raw, Ram Shringar; Das, Indrani

    2011-12-01

    In this paper, performance analysis of Location Aided Routing (LAR), AODV and DSR protocol in city scenarios has been done. The mobility model considered is Manhattan model. This mobility model used to emulate the movement pattern of nodes i.e., vehicles on streets defined by maps. Our objective is to provide a comparative analysis among LAR, AODV and DSR protocol in city scenarios in Vehicular Ad hoc Networks. The simulation work has been conducted using the Glomosim 2.03 simulator. The results show that LAR1 protocol achieves maximum packet delivery ratio is 100% in the sparsely populated network. The delay is maximum in AODV 121.88 ms when the number of node is 10 in the network. The results show that LAR1 outperform DSR and AODV in term of packet delivery ratio and end to end delay.

  2. Integrated physics analysis of plasma operation control scenario of helical reactor FFHR-d1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1-D analysis of the plasma operation control scenario of the LHD-type helical reactor FFHR-d1 was conducted. A stable variation of the fusion power can be realized by feedback control of the pellet fuelling and the simple staged variation of the external heating power with a small number of simple diagnostics (line-averaged electron density, edge electron density and fusion power). Detailed physics assessment on MHD equilibrium and neo-classical energy loss was conducted by the integrated transport analysis code TASK3D. Although some more measures to suppress Shafranov shift are preferable in high beta conditions, a baseline operation control scenario of FFHR-d1 (plasma start-up and steady-state sustainment) for both self-ignition and sub-ignition conditions was established. (author)

  3. An evaluation of implementing problem-based learning scenarios in an immersive virtual world

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maggi Savin-Baden

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Objectives: This paper will describe a project adopting a pedagogical approach that implemented and evaluated a problem-based learning project in an immersive virtual world. The project involved an iterative process of testing scenarios using student feedback to improve upon the scenarios. Methods: The study used illuminative evaluation which is argued to take account of wider contexts than more traditional evaluation and, is primarily concerned with description and interpretation rather than measurement and prediction. The evaluation encompassed formative elements to inform the project team and summative elements to establish the worth of what was achieved. Results: The findings in many ways were more positive than initially anticipated, but there were also a number of challenges. The themes that emerged for the data were technological challenges, pedagogical design, usability and avatar identity, collaboration and Interaction. Conclusions: Students appreciated the value of Second Life as a collaborative environment, but also viewed such practice-based simulations as valuable for individual work. An interesting consequence of the richness and authenticity of the Second Life scenarios is the large amount of detail provided, much more than is usual in paper-based face-to face problem-based learning sessions.

  4. Contrasting safety assessments of a runway incursion scenario: Event sequence analysis versus multi-agent dynamic risk modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In the safety literature it has been argued, that in a complex socio-technical system safety cannot be well analysed by event sequence based approaches, but requires to capture the complex interactions and performance variability of the socio-technical system. In order to evaluate the quantitative and practical consequences of these arguments, this study compares two approaches to assess accident risk of an example safety critical sociotechnical system. It contrasts an event sequence based assessment with a multi-agent dynamic risk model (MA-DRM) based assessment, both of which are performed for a particular runway incursion scenario. The event sequence analysis uses the well-known event tree modelling formalism and the MA-DRM based approach combines agent based modelling, hybrid Petri nets and rare event Monte Carlo simulation. The comparison addresses qualitative and quantitative differences in the methods, attained risk levels, and in the prime factors influencing the safety of the operation. The assessments show considerable differences in the accident risk implications of the performance of human operators and technical systems in the runway incursion scenario. In contrast with the event sequence based results, the MA-DRM based results show that the accident risk is not manifest from the performance of and relations between individual human operators and technical systems. Instead, the safety risk emerges from the totality of the performance and interactions in the agent based model of the safety critical operation considered, which coincides very well with the argumentation in the safety literature.

  5. Scenario Analysis of Nutrient Removal from Municipal Wastewater by Microalgal Biofilms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    René H. Wijffels

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Microalgae can be used for the treatment of municipal wastewater. The application of microalgal biofilms in wastewater treatment systems seems attractive, being able to remove nitrogen, phosphorus and COD from wastewater at a short hydraulic retention time. This study therefore investigates the area requirement, achieved effluent concentrations and biomass production of a hypothetical large-scale microalgal biofilm system treating municipal wastewater. Three scenarios were defined: using microalgal biofilms: (1 as a post-treatment; (2 as a second stage of wastewater treatment, after a first stage in which COD is removed by activated sludge; and (3 in a symbiotic microalgal/heterotrophic system. The analysis showed that in the Netherlands, the area requirements for these three scenarios range from 0.32 to 2.1 m2 per person equivalent. Moreover, it was found that it was not possible to simultaneously remove all nitrogen and phosphorus from the wastewater, because of the nitrogen:phosphorus ratio in the wastewater. Phosphorus was limiting in the post-treatment scenario, while nitrogen was limiting in the two other scenarios. Furthermore, a substantial amount of microalgal biomass was produced, ranging from 13 to 59 g per person equivalent per day. These findings show that microalgal biofilm systems hold large potential as seasonal wastewater treatment systems and that it is worthwhile to investigate these systems further.

  6. The Application of Scenario Analysis in the Overall Planning of Land Use:A Case Study of Shangluo City in Shaanxi Province

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SUN Pi-ling; YANG Hai-juan

    2012-01-01

    The overall planning of land use is a complex process of joint action of social system, natural and economic conditions. On the basis of summarizing the existing researches, we select Shaanxi’s Shangluo City, located in the Qinba mountainous area as the study object, to expound the concept and steps of scenario analysis based on land use change data, under the guidance of ecological safety and sustainable development theory. We design four different scenarios of land use planning program in Shangluo City during the period 2006-2020, and use grey linear programming model to analyze each scenario. The results show that the scenario analysis is feasible in the adjustment of land use structure in Shangluo City; operable in the determining of land use planning program on a macro-municipal scale.

  7. An interdisciplinary scenario analysis to assess the water availability and water consumption in the Upper Ouémé catchment in Benin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Giertz

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an interdisciplinary scenario analysis to assess the influence of global and regional change on future water availability and water consumption in the Upper Ouémé catchment in central Benin. For the region three development scenarios were evolved. These scenarios are combined with climate change scenarios based on the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In the mo-delling approach the quantification of the land use/land cover change is performed by the cellular automata model CLUE-S. The future climate scenarios are computed with the regional climate model REMO driven by the global ECHAM model. Using this data different land use and climate change scenarios can be calculated with the conceptual hydrological model UHP-HRU to assess the effects of global changes on the future water availability in Benin. To analyse the future water availability also the water consumption has to be taken into account. Due to high population growth an increase in water need in the future is expected for the region. To calculate the future household water consumption data from a regional survey and demographic projections are used. Development of the water need for animal husbandry is also considered. The first test run of the modelling approach was performed for the development scenario 'business as usual' combined with the IPCC scenario B2 for the year 2025. This test demonstrates the applicability of the approach for an interdisciplinary scenario analysis. A continuous run from 2000–2025 will be simulated for different scenarios as soon as the input data concerning land use/land cover and climate are available.

  8. Scenario Analysis to Identify Viable Conservation Strategies in Paraguay's Imperiled Atlantic Forest

    OpenAIRE

    Laura Rodriguez; Ross Mitchell; Carlson, Matthew J.

    2011-01-01

    A common challenge facing land use planning is assessment of the future performance of land use options. The challenge can be acute in developing regions where land use is expanding rapidly and funding and data needed for planning are scarce. To inform land use planning for a biosphere reserve located in Paraguay's Atlantic forest region, a scenario analysis explored the relative merits of conventional and conservation agricultural practices, sustained yield forestry, and protection. Sim...

  9. Multimedia Scenario Based Learning Programme for Enhancing the English Language Efficiency among Primary School Students

    OpenAIRE

    Navnath Tupe

    2015-01-01

    This research was undertaken with a view to assess the deficiencies in English language among Primary School Children and to develop Multimedia Scenario Based Learning Programme (MSBLP) for mastery of English language which required special attention and effective treatment. The experimental study with pretest, post-test control group design was employed to carry out the experiment of MSBLP in a sample school and to determine its efficacy for enhancing English Language skill...

  10. Play Hard, Work Harder. Alternative Reality Game and Scenario Based Assessments for Learning.

    OpenAIRE

    Ryan, Barry

    2014-01-01

    In this paper, an evaluative case study is detailed as an example of alternative reality game and scenario based assessments for learning. This pedagogic approach is evaluated and recommendations for practice offered. Integrating technology into the assessment process, and final student product, influenced the chosen pedagogy. The use of technology permitted this assessment approach to be adopted for a medium sized (n=40) student cohort. The use of wikis, eportfolios and digital reflective di...

  11. Effect of Problem Based Learning Scenario on Knowledge of Third Class Students About Childhood Poisoning

    OpenAIRE

    Nazan Karaoğlu; Sevgi Pekcan; Burak Cem Soner; Muzaffer Şeker; Rahmi Örs

    2011-01-01

    Introduction: It is stated that students cannot carry their knowledge on basic medical sciences that they gained with classical education to clinical classes and clinical practice and problem based learning (PBL) can compensate this drawback. It was aimed to evaluate the effect of PBL scenario written on this topic on level of knowledge about childhood poisoning of third class students who completed the most of theoretical pharmacology education.Materials and Method: A questionnaire form prep...

  12. InfoStation-based Adaptable Provision of m Learning Services: Main Scenarios

    OpenAIRE

    Ganchev, Ivan; Stojanov, Stanimir; O’Droma, Mairtin; Meere, Damien

    2008-01-01

    This paper presents an adaptable InfoStation-based multi-agent system facilitating the mobile eLearning (mLearning) service provision within a University Campus. A horizontal view of the network architecture is presented. Main communications scenarios are considered by describing the detailed interaction of the system entities involved in the mLearning service provision. The mTest service is explored as a practical example. System implementation approaches are also considered.

  13. Developing Courses with Holorena, A Framework for Scenario- and Game Based E-Learning Environments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laszlo Juracz

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available However utilizing rich, interactive solutions can make learning more effective and attractive, scenarioandgame-based educational resources on the web are not widely used. Creating these applications is acomplex, expensive and challenging process. Development frameworks and authoring tools hardlysupport reusable components, teamwork and learning management system-independent coursewarearchitecture. In this article we initiate the concept of a low-level, thick-client solution addressing theseproblems. With some example applications we try to demonstrate, how a framework, based on thisconcept can be useful for developing scenario- and game-based e-learning environments.

  14. Development of optimization-based probabilistic earthquake scenarios for the city of Tehran

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zolfaghari, M. R.; Peyghaleh, E.

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents the methodology and practical example for the application of optimization process to select earthquake scenarios which best represent probabilistic earthquake hazard in a given region. The method is based on simulation of a large dataset of potential earthquakes, representing the long-term seismotectonic characteristics in a given region. The simulation process uses Monte-Carlo simulation and regional seismogenic source parameters to generate a synthetic earthquake catalogue consisting of a large number of earthquakes, each characterized with magnitude, location, focal depth and fault characteristics. Such catalogue provides full distributions of events in time, space and size; however, demands large computation power when is used for risk assessment, particularly when other sources of uncertainties are involved in the process. To reduce the number of selected earthquake scenarios, a mixed-integer linear program formulation is developed in this study. This approach results in reduced set of optimization-based probabilistic earthquake scenario, while maintaining shape of hazard curves and full probabilistic picture by minimizing the error between hazard curves driven by full and reduced sets of synthetic earthquake scenarios. To test the model, the regional seismotectonic and seismogenic characteristics of northern Iran are used to simulate a set of 10,000-year worth of events consisting of some 84,000 earthquakes. The optimization model is then performed multiple times with various input data, taking into account probabilistic seismic hazard for Tehran city as the main constrains. The sensitivity of the selected scenarios to the user-specified site/return period error-weight is also assessed. The methodology could enhance run time process for full probabilistic earthquake studies like seismic hazard and risk assessment. The reduced set is the representative of the contributions of all possible earthquakes; however, it requires far less

  15. Measuring Engagement in Later Life Activities: Rasch-Based Scenario Scales for Work, Caregiving, Informal Helping, and Volunteering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ludlow, Larry H.; Matz-Costa, Christina; Johnson, Clair; Brown, Melissa; Besen, Elyssa; James, Jacquelyn B.

    2014-01-01

    The development of Rasch-based "comparative engagement scenarios" based on Guttman's facet theory and sentence mapping procedures is described. The scenario scales measuring engagement in work, caregiving, informal helping, and volunteering illuminate the lived experiences of role involvement among older adults and offer multiple…

  16. Assessing Interventions to Manage West Nile Virus Using Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis with Risk Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hongoh, Valerie; Campagna, Céline; Panic, Mirna; Samuel, Onil; Gosselin, Pierre; Waaub, Jean-Philippe; Ravel, André; Samoura, Karim; Michel, Pascal

    2016-01-01

    The recent emergence of West Nile virus (WNV) in North America highlights vulnerability to climate sensitive diseases and stresses the importance of preventive efforts to reduce their public health impact. Effective prevention involves reducing environmental risk of exposure and increasing adoption of preventive behaviours, both of which depend on knowledge and acceptance of such measures. When making operational decisions about disease prevention and control, public health must take into account a wide range of operational, environmental, social and economic considerations in addition to intervention effectiveness. The current study aimed to identify, assess and rank possible risk reduction measures taking into account a broad set of criteria and perspectives applicable to the management of WNV in Quebec under increasing transmission risk scenarios, some of which may be related to ongoing warming in higher-latitude regions. A participatory approach was used to collect information on categories of concern to relevant stakeholders with respect to WNV prevention and control. Multi-criteria decision analysis was applied to examine stakeholder perspectives and their effect on strategy rankings under increasing transmission risk scenarios. Twenty-three preventive interventions were retained for evaluation using eighteen criteria identified by stakeholders. Combined evaluations revealed that, at an individual-level, inspecting window screen integrity, wearing light colored, long clothing, eliminating peridomestic larval sites and reducing outdoor activities at peak times were top interventions under six WNV transmission scenarios. At a regional-level, the use of larvicides was a preferred strategy in five out of six scenarios, while use of adulticides and dissemination of sterile male mosquitoes were found to be among the least favoured interventions in almost all scenarios. Our findings suggest that continued public health efforts aimed at reinforcing individual

  17. Assessing Interventions to Manage West Nile Virus Using Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis with Risk Scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hongoh, Valerie; Campagna, Céline; Panic, Mirna; Samuel, Onil; Gosselin, Pierre; Waaub, Jean-Philippe; Ravel, André; Samoura, Karim; Michel, Pascal

    2016-01-01

    The recent emergence of West Nile virus (WNV) in North America highlights vulnerability to climate sensitive diseases and stresses the importance of preventive efforts to reduce their public health impact. Effective prevention involves reducing environmental risk of exposure and increasing adoption of preventive behaviours, both of which depend on knowledge and acceptance of such measures. When making operational decisions about disease prevention and control, public health must take into account a wide range of operational, environmental, social and economic considerations in addition to intervention effectiveness. The current study aimed to identify, assess and rank possible risk reduction measures taking into account a broad set of criteria and perspectives applicable to the management of WNV in Quebec under increasing transmission risk scenarios, some of which may be related to ongoing warming in higher-latitude regions. A participatory approach was used to collect information on categories of concern to relevant stakeholders with respect to WNV prevention and control. Multi-criteria decision analysis was applied to examine stakeholder perspectives and their effect on strategy rankings under increasing transmission risk scenarios. Twenty-three preventive interventions were retained for evaluation using eighteen criteria identified by stakeholders. Combined evaluations revealed that, at an individual-level, inspecting window screen integrity, wearing light colored, long clothing, eliminating peridomestic larval sites and reducing outdoor activities at peak times were top interventions under six WNV transmission scenarios. At a regional-level, the use of larvicides was a preferred strategy in five out of six scenarios, while use of adulticides and dissemination of sterile male mosquitoes were found to be among the least favoured interventions in almost all scenarios. Our findings suggest that continued public health efforts aimed at reinforcing individual

  18. Analysis of a single primary coolant pump trip scenario in a PHWR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper addresses the analysis of a single primary coolant pump (PCP) trip scenario in a 220 MWe Indian pressurized heavy water reactor (PHWR). The analysis is carried out using a lumped parameter model. The time dependent mass, momentum and energy for conservation equations for the primary system are solved using finite difference scheme. The predictions of the model for the time required to reach the over-pressure trip value was in good agreement with the plant data. Parametric studies are carried out to study the influences of the isolation of the failed branch and a delay in the trip of the diagonally opposite PCP. (author). 2 refs., 13 figs., 1 tab

  19. Delivering CMIP5-based climate scenarios for impact assessments in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Semenov, Mikhail

    2014-05-01

    Local-scale climate scenarios are required as input to impact models for assessment of climate change impacts. These scenarios incorporate changes in climatic variability as well as extreme events which are particularly important when used in conjunctions with process-based non-linear impact models. ELPIS is a repository of climate scenarios for Europe, which is based on the LARS-WG weather generator and future climate projections. Recently, projections from 18 global climate models (GCMs) from the CMIP5 multi-model ensembles used in the latest IPCC AR5 were incorporated into ELPIS. In ELPIS, the site parameters for climatic variables for the baseline period, 1980-2010, were estimated by LARS-WG from the European Crop Growth Monitoring System (CGMS) daily weather which were interpolated from observed sites over 25-km grid in Europe. Using change-factors derived from GCMs, LARS-WG perturbed site distributions for the baseline climate to generate local-scale daily weather for the future under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 concentration pathways. The ability of LARS-WG to reproduce daily weather time series for 1980-2010 was assessed using statistical tests. Baseline site parameters, derived from CGMS, were validated against independent dataset obtained from the ECA&D archive. ELPIS represents a unique resource for impact assessments of climate change in Europe.

  20. Development of Accident Scenario for Interim Spent Fuel Storage Facility Based on Fukushima Accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    700 MTU of spent nuclear fuel is discharged from nuclear fleet every year and spent fuel storage is currently 70.9% full. The on-site wet type spent fuel storage pool of each NPP(nuclear power plants) in Korea will shortly exceed its storage limit. Backdrop, the Korean government has rolled out a plan to construct an interim spent fuel storage facility by 2024. However, the type of interim spent fuel storage facility has not been decided yet in detail. The Fukushima accident has resulted in more stringent requirements for nuclear facilities in case of beyond design basis accidents. Therefore, there has been growing demand for developing scenario on interim storage facility to prepare for beyond design basis accidents and conducting dose assessment based on the scenario to verify the safety of each type of storage

  1. A lifestyle-based scenario for US buildings: implications for energy use

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Can lifestyle-based scenarios provide insight into the nature of energy use in our future buildings? Participants in a design charrette brainstormed ideas about the future of US homes and workplaces. The teams started from several descriptions of daily lifestyles, and developed specific building characteristics as the place settings for these narratives. In addition to characterizing the physical environment, the teams also identified the forces that would be influential in making these changes. Further reflection was made on the possible unintended consequences of these changes. The energy implications of these changes were characterized with respect to magnitude and direction. While acknowledging the speculative nature of the exercise, the rationale was to broaden the discussion on future energy use by looking at future scenarios in the context of everyday life

  2. Improved seismic risk estimation for Bucharest, based on multiple hazard scenarios, analytical methods and new techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toma-Danila, Dragos; Florinela Manea, Elena; Ortanza Cioflan, Carmen

    2014-05-01

    a very local-dependent hazard. Also, for major earthquakes, nonlinear effects need to be considered. This problem is treated accordingly, by using recent microzonation studies, together with real data recorded at 4 events with Mw≥6. Different ground motion prediction equations are also analyzed, and improvement of them is investigated. For the buildings and population damage assessment, two open-source software are used and compared: SELENA and ELER. The damage probability for buildings is obtained through capacity-spectrum based methods. The spectral content is used for spectral acceleration at 0.2, 0.3 and 1 seconds. As the level of analysis (6 sectors for all the city) has not the best resolution with respect to the Bucharest hazard scenarios defined, we propose a procedure on how to divide the data into smaller units, taking into consideration the construction code (4 periods) and material. This approach relies on free data available from real estate agencies web-sites. The study provides an insight view on the seismic risk analysis for Bucharest and an improvement of the real-time emergency system. Most important, the system is also evaluated through real data and relevant scenarios. State-of-the art GIS maps are also presented, both for seismic hazard and risk.

  3. Environmental implications of large-scale adoption of wind power: a scenario-based life cycle assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    We investigate the potential environmental impacts of a large-scale adoption of wind power to meet up to 22% of the world’s growing electricity demand. The analysis builds on life cycle assessments of generic onshore and offshore wind farms, meant to represent average conditions for global deployment of wind power. We scale unit-based findings to estimate aggregated emissions of building, operating and decommissioning wind farms toward 2050, taking into account changes in the electricity mix in manufacturing. The energy scenarios investigated are the International Energy Agency’s BLUE scenarios. We estimate 1.7–2.6 Gt CO2-eq climate change, 2.1–3.2 Mt N-eq marine eutrophication, 9.2–14 Mt NMVOC photochemical oxidant formation, and 9.5–15 Mt SO2-eq terrestrial acidification impact category indicators due to global wind power in 2007–50. Assuming lifetimes 5 yr longer than reference, the total climate change indicator values are reduced by 8%. In the BLUE Map scenario, construction of new capacity contributes 64%, and repowering of existing capacity 38%, to total cumulative greenhouse gas emissions. The total emissions of wind electricity range between 4% and 14% of the direct emissions of the replaced fossil-fueled power plants. For all impact categories, the indirect emissions of displaced fossil power are larger than the total emissions caused by wind power.

  4. Scenario based approach to structural damage detection and its value in a risk and reliability perspective

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hovgaard, Mads Knude; Hansen, Jannick Balleby; Brincker, Rune

    2013-01-01

    mechanism. The statistical properties of the monitoring system (the distribution of the detectable damage) are estimated using a log-linear regression for signal response data from simulation. The value of monitoring is then calculated as the difference in expected utility for the structure with- and......A scenario- and vibration based structural damage detection method is demonstrated though simulation. The method is Finite Element (FE) based. The value of the monitoring is calculated using structural reliability theory. A high cycle fatigue crack propagation model is assumed as the damage...

  5. Modelling land use changes according to transportation scenarios using raster based GIS indicators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fuglsang, Morten; Münier, Bernd; Hansen, Henning Sten

    2012-01-01

    the cellular automata model LUCIA. An Eastern Danish case area was selected, comprising the Copenhagen metropolitan area and its hinterland. The different scenarios are described using a range of different GIS datasets. These include mapping of accessibility based on public and private transportation...... consumption. This will lead to less impact on climate from transportation based on a more optimal localization and transport infrastructure strategy....... the EU-FP7 research project PASHMINA (Paradigm Shift modelling and innovative approaches), three storylines of future transportation paradigm shifts towards 2050 are created. These storylines are translated into spatial planning strategies and their implication on land use changes were modelled via...

  6. Particle Reduction Strategies - PAREST. PM10-cause analysis based on hypothetical emissions scenarios. Sub-report; Strategien zur Verminderung der Feinstaubbelastung - PAREST. PM10-Ursachenanalyse auf der Basis hypothetischer Emissionsszenarien. Teilbericht

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stern, Rainer [Freie Univ. Berlin (Germany). Inst. fuer Meteorologie, Troposphaerische Umweltforschung

    2013-06-15

    In this report, a PM10 cause analysis is presented, which provides an estimation of the extent to which the emitted substances from ten different source sectors are responsible for the calculated PM10 concentrations in Germany (PM = particulate matter). [German] In diesem Bericht wird eine PM10-Ursachenanalyse vorgestellt, die eine Abschaetzung liefert, in welchem Umfang die in Deutschland von den verschiedenen Verursachergruppen emittierten Stoffe fuer die in Deutschland berechneten PM10-Konzentrationen verantwortlich sind.

  7. Applying Cellular Automata for Simulating and Assessing Urban Growth Scenario Based in Nairobi, Kenya

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kenneth Mubea

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This research explores urban growth based scenarios for the city of Nairobi using a cellular automata urban growth model (UGM. African cities have experienced rapid urbanization over the last decade due to increased population growth and high economic activities. We used multi-temporal Landsat imageries for 1976, 1986, 2000 and 2010 to investigate urban land-use changes in Nairobi. Our UGM used data from urban land-use of 1986 and 2010, road data, slope data and exclusion layer. Monte-Carlo technique was used for model calibration and Multi Resolution Validation (MRV technique for validation. Simulation of urban land-use was done up to the year 2030 when Kenya plans to attain Vision 2030. Three scenarios were explored in the urban modelling process; unmanaged growth with no restriction on environmental areas, managed growth with moderate protection, and a managed growth with maximum protection on forest, agricultural areas, and urban green. Thus alternative scenario development using UGM is useful for planning purposes so as to ensure sustainable development is achieved. UGM provides quantitative, visual, spatial and temporal information which aid policy and decision makers can make informed decisions.

  8. Scenario-based assessment of buildings damage and population exposure due to tsunamis for the town of Alexandria, Egypt

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Pagnoni

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Alexandria is the second biggest city in Egypt as regards population, is a key economic area in northern Africa and has a very important tourist activity. Historical catalogues indicate that it was severely affected by a number of tsunami events. In this work we assess the tsunami hazard by running numerical simulations of tsunami impact in Alexandria through the Worst-case Credible Tsunami Scenario Analysis (WCTSA. We identify three main seismic sources: the Western Hellenic Arc (WHA – reference event AD 365, Mw = 8.5, the Eastern Hellenic Arc (EHA – reference event 1303, Mw = 8.0 and the Cyprus Arc (CA – hypothetical scenario earthquake with Mw = 8.0, inferred from the tectonic setting and from historical tsunami catalogues. All numerical simulations are carried out by means of the code UBO-TSUFD, developed and maintained by the Tsunami Research Team of the University of Bologna. Relevant tsunami metrics are computed for each scenario and then used to build aggregated fields such as the maximum flood depth and the maximum inundation area. We find that the case that produces the most relevant flooding in Alexandria is the EHA scenario, with wave heights up to 4 m. The aggregate fields are used for a building vulnerability assessment according to a methodology developed in the frame of the EU-FP6 project SCHEMA and further refined in this study, based on the adoption of a suitable building damage matrix and on water inundation depth. It is found that in the districts of El Dekhila and Al Amriyah, to the south-west of the port of Dekhila over 12 000 buildings could be affected and hundreds of them could incur in consequences ranging from important damage to total collapse. It is also found that in the same districts tsunami inundation covers an area of about 15 km2 resulting in more than 150 000 residents being exposed.

  9. Scenario analysis of Agro-Environment measure adoption for soil erosion protection in Sicilian vineyard (Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Novara, Agata; Gristina, Luciano; Fantappiè, Maria; Costantini, Edoardo

    2014-05-01

    carbon content of the topsoil (averaged on the first 50 cm of soil depth) with the table published by Stone and Hilborn (2012). The slope-length and slope gradient (LS) factors were derived from the Digital Terrain Model of Sicily (20 x 20 m) using the formulas proposed by Wischmeier and Smith (1978), and revised by McCool et al. (1987 and 1989). The C factor were applied according previous studies in the same area and ranged among 0.22 and 0.12 and less than 0.10 using permanent species able to reduce erosion rate up to 90% (Gristina et al., 2006; Novara et al. 2011). The scenario analysis of the soil erosion reduction after the adoption of AEM could be used by policy makers as a base for the evaluation of the Payment for Ecosystem Service (PES) to be paid to farmers through the future Agro-Ecosystem measures incentives. Gristina, L., Bagarello, V., Ferro, V., Poma, I., 2006. Cover and management factor for Sicilian vineyard systems. In: 14th International Soil conservation Organization Conference—Water Management and Soil Conservation in Semi-arid Environments, 14-19 May 2006, Marrakech, Marocco (ISCO2006), pp. 1-4. A Novara, L Gristina, SS Saladino, A Santoro, A Cerda 2011 Soil erosion assessment on tillage and alternative soil managements in a Sicilian vineyard. Soil and Tillage Research 117, 140-147

  10. Blind estimation of the number of speech source in reverberant multisource scenarios based on binaural signals

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    May, Tobias; van de Par, Steven

    2012-01-01

    In this paper we present a new approach for estimating the number of active speech sources in the presence of interfering noise sources and reverberation. First, a binaural front-end is used to detect the spatial positions of all active sound sources, resulting in a binary mask for each candidate...... on a support vector machine (SVM) classifier. A systematic analysis shows that the proposed algorithm is able to blindly determine the number and the corresponding spatial positions of speech sources in multisource scenarios and generalizes well to unknown acoustic conditions...

  11. Analysis of Value Chain Governance: Scenarios to Develop Small-Scale Furniture Producers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rika Harini Irawati

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE X-NONE MicrosoftInternetExplorer4 Furniture industry had shown a long chain of production to consumption, from raw material producers (tree growers, semi-finished producers, finished product producers, and retailers to exporters. Jepara as a centre furniture industry in Indonesia incorporates around 15,000 business units and provide livelihoods to approximately 170,000 workers. This sector contributes about 27% of Jepara‘s people domestic income. Small and medium furniture enterprises (SMEs have significant roles in the furniture industry as production structures are characterized by them. Power and information imbalance throughout the furniture value chain have resulted in problems of uneven distribution of gains among actors of the industry. SME furniture producers have experienced an unfair value added distribution. Hence, development of SMEs is important for strengthening the industry and expected to result in a portion of value added distribution to them.  We are trying to develop scenarios for SME improvement in the furniture industry in Jepara by identifying their problems and implementing Value Chain Analysis (VCA. VCA is an approach to describe SME producer relations with other actors in the industry and the governance type of their relations. Data is collected by interviewing selected SMEs from the association of small scale producers in Jepara to get detailed maps of their value chain. The research will produce future scenarios and intervention points to improve small-scale producer sustainability and better value added distribution among furniture actors. The scenarios will not only benefit selected producers but also the furniture industry of Jepara, and can be adopted for similar industries throughout Indonesia and abroad. Keywords: furniture, value chain, governance, scenario, small-scale

  12. Evaluating options for sustainable energy mixes in South Korea using scenario analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    To mitigate greenhouse gas emissions, coal-fired electricity infrastructure needs to be replaced by low-carbon electricity generation options. Here we examine a range of possible alternative scenarios for sustainable electricity generation in South Korea, considering both physical and economic limits of current technologies. The results show that South Korea cannot achieve a 100% renewable energy mix and requires at least 55 GW of backup capacity. Given that constraint, we modelled seven scenarios: (i) the present condition, (ii) the First National Electricity Plan configuration, (iii) renewable energy (including 5 GW photovoltaic) with fuel cells or (iv) natural gas backup, (v) maximum renewable energy (including 75 GW photovoltaic) with natural gas, (vi) maximum nuclear power, and (vii) nuclear power with natural gas. We then quantify levelised cost of electricity, energy security, greenhouse gas emissions, fresh water consumption, heated water discharge, land transformation, air pollutant emissions, radioactive waste disposal, solid waste disposal and safety issues for each modelled mix. Our analysis shows that the maximum nuclear power scenario yields the fewest overall negative impacts, and the maximum renewable energy scenario with fuel cells would have the highest negative impacts. - Highlights: ► Due to physical limits of renewable sources, renewable energy cannot provide total electricity consumption in South Korea. ► A massive expansion of solar power will act to save only a small amount of backup fuel at greatly increased costs. ► A huge supply of natural gas capacity is essential, due to the absence of feasible large-scale energy storage. ► A pathway to maximize renewable energy causes more environmental and economic disadvantages than the status quo. ► Maximizing nuclear power is the most sustainable option for South Korea

  13. Evaluating climate change adaptation options for urban flooding in Copenhagen based on new high‐end emission scenario simulations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Leonhardsen, Lykke; Madsen, Henrik

    2014-01-01

    simulations. These include a regional climate model projection forced to a global temperature increase of 6 degrees as well as a projection based on the RCP8.5 scenario. With these scenarios projected impacts of extreme precipitation increase significantly. For extreme sea surges the impacts do not seem to...

  14. 基于情景分析的西北农村社会-生态系统脆弱性研究——以榆中县中连川乡为例%Vulnerability Assessment of Rural Social-ecological System Based on Scenario Analysis:A Case Study of Zhonglianchuan Town in Yuzhong County

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    杨新军; 张慧; 王子侨

    2015-01-01

    methodology for assessing vulnerability of Socio-ecological Systems could not explain the uncertainty about the very system. In this article, Zhonglianhuan Town in Yuzhong County of Gansu Prov-ince was taken as the study area, a field survey about contextual interview with multiple differing stakeholders which include the farmers, local managers and academic researchers were conducted, the acceptability of dif-ferent people toward different scenarios could be measured as an indicator of their fragility. Then, the vulnera-bility of rural Social-ecological system was analyzed. The two key drivers of the rural SES were climatic drought and government policy by using scenario analysis, whose interactions decided the future of local SES. Then, with the cross-impact analysis, three scenarios ( S1, S2 and S3) were filtered which is most likely to hap-pen in the future. Based on the scenario analysis, the acceptability of stakeholders toward the three different scenarios was measured combining with social-ecological matrix, and then the vulnerability in the three diffi-dent scenarios was judged. The result indicates that, In scenario 1, Drought was alleviated and there were poli-cy support, the vulnerability of farmers and local managers is low;in scenario 2 (Drought was alleviated but there was no policy support)and 3(there was policy support but Drought occurred most frequently), the accept-ability of farmers and local managers was negative-going and the vulnerability degree was high. Worsening drought determined the future of the study area, however, the policy support make up the negative impact to some extent. some policy suggestions were proposed for the development through analyzing the vulnerability of ,the local social-ecological systems. At last, the research on the vulnerability of human-environmental sys-tem combining social factors with ecological factors was reviewed.

  15. Assessment of vulnerability to future marine processes of urbanized coastal environments by a GIS-based approach: expected scenario in the metropolitan area of Bari (Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mancini, F.; Ceppi, C.; Christopulos, V.

    2013-12-01

    Literature concerning the risk assessment procedures after extreme meteorological events is generally focused on the establishing of relationship between actual severe weather conditions and impact detected over the involved zones. Such an events are classified on the basis of measurements and observation able to assess the magnitude of phenomena or on the basis of related effects on the affected area, the latter being deeply connected with the overall physical vulnerability. However such assessment almost never do consider scenario about expected extreme event and possible pattern of urbanization at the time of impact and nor the spatial and temporal uncertainty of phenomena are taken into account. The drawn of future scenario about coastal vulnerability to marine processes is therefore difficult. This work focuses the study case of the Metropoli Terra di Bari (metropolitan area of Bari, Apulia, Italy) where a coastal vulnerability analysis due to climate changes expected on the basis of expert opinions coming from the scientific community was carried out. Several possible impacts on the coastal environments were considered, in particular sea level rise inundation, flooding due to storm surge and coastal erosion. For such a purpose the methodology base on SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenario) produced by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) was adopted after a regionalization procedure as carried out by Verburgh and others (2006) at the European scale. The open source software SLEUTH, base on the cellular automate principle, was used and the reliability of obtained scenario verified through the Monte Carlo method. Once these scenario were produced, a GIS-based multicriteria methodology was implemented to evaluate the vulnerability of the urbanized coastal area of interest. Several vulnerability maps related are therefore available for different scenario able to consider the degree of hazards and potential development of the typology and extent

  16. Plant incident progress scenario analysis for nuclear emergency exercise of Kansai Electric Power Co., Inc. in fiscal 2011

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In the light of the lessons learned from the accident at Fukushima dai-ichi nuclear power plant, the Kansai Electric Power Company (KEPCO) has developed various emergency safety measures in order to restore cooling functions in the nuclear power plants (NPPs) while preventing reactor core or spent fuel damages and containing radioactive releases even in the case that all the three safety functions (all AC power sources, seawater cooling and spent fuel pit (SFP) cooling functions) are lost due to a tsunami. A nuclear emergency exercise of KEPCO, which was intended for Ohi-1-4, was held in fiscal 2011 for an evaluation of the emergency plan. The scenario of the exercise was as follows: Ohi units 1, 2 and 3 in operation scrammed automatically due to an earthquake. At that time, Ohi unit 4 was under periodic inspection. Then, an earthquake-induced tsunami hit the NPPs. Finally, all of Ohi NPPs fell into station black out (SBO) and the cooling systems totally lost their function. In addition, the turbine driven auxiliary feed water pump did not work in Ohi unit 3, thus water supply to the steam generators (SGs) was lost. In this paper, the scenario which is postulated for emergency exercise is analyzed with the MAAP4 code in order to assist the nuclear emergency exercise of KEPCO in fiscal 2011. Then, the incident progress of the postulated scenario is evaluated on the basis of the analysis results, including the time of the occurrence of specified events based on the Nuclear Disaster Special Measures Law and main events. The results indicate that it is possible to terminate the event without core damage for the postulated scenario. (author)

  17. Analysis of the stability of PTW riders in autonomous braking scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Symeonidis, Ioannis; Kavadarli, Gueven; Erich, Schuller; Graw, Matthias; Peldschus, Steffen

    2012-11-01

    While fatalities of car occupants in the EU decreased remarkably over the last decade, Powered Two Wheelers (PTWs) fatalities still increase following the increase of PTW ownership. Autonomous braking systems have been implemented in several types of vehicles and are presently addressed by research in the field of PTWs. A major concern in this context is the rider stability. Experiments with volunteers were performed in order to find out whether autonomous braking for PTWs will produce a greater instability of the rider in comparison to manual braking. The PTW's braking conditions were simulated in a laboratory with a motorcycle mock-up mounted on a sled, which was accelerated with an average of 0.35 g. The motion of the rider was captured in autonomous braking scenarios with and without pre-warning as well as in manual braking scenarios. No significant differences between the scenarios were found with respect to maximum forward displacement of the volunteer's torso and head (pautonomous braking at low deceleration will not cause significant instabilities of the rider in comparison to manual braking in idealized laboratory conditions. Based on this, further research into the development and implementation of autonomous braking systems for PTWs, e.g. by extensive riding tests, seems valuable. PMID:23036398

  18. Analysis of global warming stabilization scenarios. The Asian-Pacific Integrated Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper analyzes the economic and climatic impacts of the EMF 19 emission scenarios. A reference scenario, three emission scenarios targeting 550 ppmv atmospheric concentration, and three tax scenarios are analyzed. The profiles of energy consumption and economic losses of each policy scenario are compared to the reference scenario. The model also estimates that global mean temperature will increase 1.7-2.9 C in 2100, and the sea level will rise 40-51 cm, compared to the 1990 levels under the EMF scenarios. Impacts on food productivity and malaria infection are estimated to be very severe in some countries in the Asian region

  19. Scenario Analysis of a Local-scale Low Carbon Society in China : An Application of Shanghai

    OpenAIRE

    2011-01-01

    Climate change is a global issue and threatens the basic element of life for people around the world. Lots of countries have set up targets and take measures to mitigate carbon dioxide emissions. China has also set up its own target to reduce carbon dioxide emission per unit of GDP by 40%-45% in 2020 compared to the level of 2005. This thesis develops a framework to estimate the emission level of carbon dioxide at local (or city) level in China by scenario analysis. This framework is applied ...

  20. Relevant scenarios and uncertainty analysis of severe accidents in the U.S. EPR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    As part of U.S. EPR design certification activities, AREVA has prepared analyses to support the US NRC's regulatory expectation with regard to the resolution of several severe accident safety issues identified in SECY 93-087. To address the large uncertainties associated with severe accident progression, AREVA NP has developed and applied a best-estimate plus uncertainty methodology to the analysis of severe accidents. The uncertainty methodology considers a broad spectrum of phenomenological and process uncertainties. Unique among the uncertainty parameters considered is the sampling of event sequence (i.e., scenario type). (authors)

  1. Top-down workforce demand extrapolation based on an EC energy road-map scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The EHRO-N team of JRC-IET provides the EC with essential data related to supply and demand for nuclear experts based on bottom-up information from the nuclear industry. The current paper deals with an alternative approach to derive figures for the demand side information of the nuclear workforce. Complementary to the bottom-up approach, a top-down modelling approach extrapolation of an EC Energy road-map nuclear energy demand scenario is followed here in addition to the survey information. In this top-down modelling approach, the number of nuclear power plants that are in operation and under construction is derived as a function of time from 2010 up to 2050 assuming that the current reactor park will be replaced by generic third generation reactors of 1400 MWe or 1000 MWe. Depending on the size of new build reactors, the analysis shows the number of new reactors required to fulfil the demand for nuclear energy. Based on workforce models for operation and construction of nuclear power plants, the model allows an extrapolation of these respective work-forces. Using the nuclear skills pyramid, the total workforce employed at a plant is broken down in a nuclear (experts), nuclearized, and nuclear aware workforce. With retirement profiles for nuclear power plants derived from the bottom-up EHRO-N survey, the replacement of the current workforce is taken into account. The peak of the new workforce (partly replacing the retiring workforce and additionally keeping up with the growing total workforce demand) for nuclear experts and nuclearized employees is to be expected at the end of the considered period (2050). However, the peak workforce for nuclear aware employees is to be expected around 2020. When comparing to historical data for the nuclear capacity being installed at the same time in Europe, it is clear that the expected future capacity to be installed at the same time in Europe is significantly lower (factor of 2) than in the early 1980's. However, it should

  2. TOP-DOWN WORKFORCE DEMAND EXTRAPOLATION BASED ON AN EC ENERGY ROADMAP SCENARIO

    OpenAIRE

    ROELOFS Ferry; VON ESTORFF Ulrik

    2014-01-01

    The EHRO-N team of JRC-IET provides the EC with essential data related to supply and demand for nuclear experts based on bottom-up information from the nuclear industry. The current paper deals with an alternative approach to derive figures for the demand side information of the nuclear workforce. Complementary to the bottom-up approach, a top-down modelling approach extrapolation of an EC Energy Roadmap nuclear energy demand scenario is followed here in addition to the survey information. ...

  3. Measurement-Based Delay and Doppler Characterizations for High-Speed Railway Hilly Scenario

    OpenAIRE

    Yan Zhang; Zunwen He; Wancheng Zhang; Limin Xiao; Shidong Zhou

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents results for delay and Doppler spread characterization in high-speed railway (HSR) hilly scenario. To investigate the propagation characteristics in this specific terrain, a measurement campaign is conducted along the “Guangzhou-Shenzhen” HSR in China. A wideband channel sounder with 40 MHz bandwidth is used to collect raw data at 2.4 GHz band. The delay spread and Doppler frequency features are analyzed based on measured data. It is found that there are abundant multipath ...

  4. Incorporating scenario-based simulation into a hospital nursing education program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagle, Beth M; McHale, Jeanne M; Alexander, Gail A; French, Brian M

    2009-01-01

    Nurse educators are challenged to provide meaningful and effective learning opportunities for both new and experienced nurses. Simulation as a teaching and learning methodology is being embraced by nursing in academic and practice settings to provide innovative educational experiences to assess and develop clinical competency, promote teamwork, and improve care processes. This article provides an overview of the historical basis for using simulation in education, simulation methodologies, and perceived advantages and disadvantages. It also provides a description of the integration of scenario-based programs using a full-scale patient simulator into nursing education programming at a large academic medical center. PMID:19226995

  5. Modelling project feasibility robustness by use of scenarios

    OpenAIRE

    Rehfeld, Claus; Leleur, Steen

    1998-01-01

    Key words: Evaluation, Scenario, Uncertainty, Multi-Modal Abstract: This paper presents the application of a new scenario based analysis technique which has been developed for transport infrastructure planning. The approach aims at dealing with uncertainty in the planning environment in a more systematic way than is usually the case when applying scenario analysis. Specifically, the developed scenario approach secures a consistent inclusion of actual scenario elements in the quantitative impa...

  6. Scenario analysis in business model choosing for instrument-making enterprise

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ye.V. Krykavskyi

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the article. The aim of this study is to develop the selection technology of the enterprise business model in conditions of market dynamism and uncertainty, as well as testing of this technology at a specific enterprise according to the method of situational analysis. The results of the analysis. Economic development of modern markets is characterized by the fact that almost all the enterprises experience significant dynamics and a high degree of entropy, which complicates the decision-making process. As the basic unit of the economy, the enterprise should respond correctly to new objective challenges, including: instability of global financial markets, business intellectualization and acceleration of scientific-technological progress with simultaneous strengthening of environmental demands to economic systems, increasing of competition and its transition to a global level, rapid change of consumer demands and individualization of consumer proposal, increased attention to corporate responsibility towards society and so on. Obviously, the important task of modern enterprises becomes a justification of business organization model, which is selected in accordance with the established potential and the aforementioned challenges. The authors have developed a selection technology of the enterprise business model, which involves the combination of scenarios use, strategic alternatives matrix, SWOT-analysis and the method of «decisions tree» during the implementation of the following steps: - generating of alternative scenarios of enterprise business models with the help of strategic alternatives matrix. Previously prepared analytical materials are used in the preparation of scenarios. Creating a scenario involves the following steps: determining a time interval formulation of the events, verbal interpretation of their essence, their quantitative assessment; - choosing the type of scenarios and scenarios selection criteria for business

  7. The Impact of New Estimates of Mixing Ratio and Flux-based Halogen Scenarios on Ozone Evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oman, Luke D.; Douglass, Anne R.; Liang, Qing; Strahan, Susan E.

    2014-01-01

    The evolution of ozone in the 21st century has been shown to be mainly impacted by the halogen emissions scenario and predicted changes in the circulation of the stratosphere. New estimates of mixing ratio and flux-based emission scenarios have been produced from the SPARC Lifetime Assessment 2013. Simulations using the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model (GEOSCCM) are conducted using this new A1 2014 halogen scenario and compared to ones using the A1 2010 scenario. This updated version of GEOSCCM includes a realistic representation of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation and improvements related to the break up of the Antarctic polar vortex. We will present results of the ozone evolution over the recent past and 21st century to the A1 2010, A1 2014 mixing ratio, and an A1 2014 flux-based halogen scenario. Implications of the uncertainties in these estimates as well as those from possible circulation changes will be discussed.

  8. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in the scenario simulation with RELAP/SCDAP and MELCOR codes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A methodology was implemented for analysis of uncertainty in simulations of scenarios with RELAP/SCDAP V- 3.4 bi-7 and MELCOR V-2.1 codes, same that are used to perform safety analysis in the Comision Nacional de Seguridad Nuclear y Salvaguardias (CNSNS). The uncertainty analysis methodology chosen is a probabilistic method of type Propagation of uncertainty of the input parameters to the departure parameters. Therefore, it began with the selection of the input parameters considered uncertain and are considered of high importance in the scenario for its direct effect on the output interest variable. These parameters were randomly sampled according to intervals of variation or probability distribution functions assigned by expert judgment to generate a set of input files that were run through the simulation code to propagate the uncertainty to the output parameters. Then, through the use or ordered statistical and formula Wilks, was determined that the minimum number of executions required to obtain the uncertainty bands that include a population of 95% at a confidence level of 95% in the results is 93, is important to mention that in this method that number of executions does not depend on the number of selected input parameters. In the implementation routines in Fortran 90 that allowed automate the process to make the uncertainty analysis in transients for RELAP/SCDAP code were generated. In the case of MELCOR code for severe accident analysis, automation was carried out through complement Dakota Uncertainty incorporated into the Snap platform. To test the practical application of this methodology, two analyzes were performed: the first with the simulation of closing transient of the main steam isolation valves using the RELAP/SCDAP code obtaining the uncertainty band of the dome pressure of the vessel; while in the second analysis, the accident simulation of the power total loss (Sbo) was carried out with the Macarol code obtaining the uncertainty band for the

  9. A scenario tree-based decomposition for solving multistage stochastic programs. With application in energy production

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mahlke, Debora

    2011-07-01

    This thesis is concerned with the development and implementation of an optimization method for the solution of multistage stochastic mixed-integer programs arising in energy production. Motivated by the strong increase in electricity produced from wind energy, we investigate the question of how energy storages may contribute to integrate the strongly fluctuating wind power into the electric power network. In order to study the economics of energy storages, we consider a power generation system which consists of conventional power plants, different types of energy storages, and an offshore wind park which supplies a region of certain dimension with electrical energy. On this basis, we aim at optimizing the commitment of the facilities over several days minimizing the overall costs. We formulate the problem as a mixed-integer optimization program concentrating on the combinatorial and stochastic aspects. The nonlinearities arising from partial load efficiencies of the units are approximated by piece-wise linear functions. In order to account for the uncertainty regarding the fluctuations of the available wind power and of the prices for electricity purchased on the spot market, we describe the affected data via a scenario tree. Altogether, we obtain a stochastic multistage mixed-integer problem (SMIP) of high complexity whose solution is algorithmically and computationally challenging. The main focus of this thesis is on the development of a scenario tree-based decomposition approach combined with a branch-and-bound method (SD-BB) for solution of the SMIP described above. This novel method relies on the decomposition of the original formulation into several subproblems based on the splitting of the scenario tree into subtrees. Using a branch-and-bound framework which we extend by Lagrangian relaxation, we can solve the problem to global optimality. In order to support the solution process, we investigate the polyhedral substructure which results from the description

  10. Impacts of Mega-droughts on Water and Food Security in the Indo-Gangetic Plains: A Paleoclimate Scenario Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, T.; Pitois, G.; Ringler, C.; Wang, D.; Rosegrant, M. W.

    2014-12-01

    Spanning over Pakistan, northern India, Nepal, and Bangladesh, the Indo-Gangetic Plains (IGP) is the home of several hundred million people and the "bread basket" for much of South Asia. The flat terrain, fertile soils, and favorable climate of the IGP make it agriculturally productive. However prolonged droughts caused by consecutive monsoon failures can seriously affect crop production and social wellbeing, in particular for the eastern part of the plains where agriculture remains largely rain-fed. Severe droughts were observed in the IGP historically, and recent paleoclimate studies reveal that more severe and long-lasting "mega-droughts" had happened in the distant past. Agricultural losses from major droughts can dramatically affect food systems and increase the vulnerability of resource-poor people given the delicate balance between food supply and demand under growing natural resource scarcity. To estimate the potential impacts of "mega-droughts" on the water and food systems in the IGP, we develop worst-case drought scenarios through inverse modeling of tree-ring-based PDSI reconstruction that covers the period 1300-1899 (A.D.), and analyze these historic mega-drought scenarios using IFPRI's IMPACT global water and food projections model. The base year of the IMPACT model is parameterized using socioeconomic and engineering data that reflect today's water management and infrastructure, agricultural technologies, population, income, and market institutions. The base year simulation is validated against observations to ensure model fidelity. Anticipated changes of the above factors in the future out to 2050 are specified using demographic and economic growth projections and literature data. Model simulation results represent the consequences of mega-droughts in the IGP given technological and socioeconomic conditions of today and in the future. We also explore policy options for increasing the resilience of water and food systems in the IGP, through scenario

  11. Multi-Purpose Avionic Architecture for Vision Based Navigation Systems for EDL and Surface Mobility Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tramutola, A.; Paltro, D.; Cabalo Perucha, M. P.; Paar, G.; Steiner, J.; Barrio, A. M.

    2015-09-01

    Vision Based Navigation (VBNAV) has been identified as a valid technology to support space exploration because it can improve autonomy and safety of space missions. Several mission scenarios can benefit from the VBNAV: Rendezvous & Docking, Fly-Bys, Interplanetary cruise, Entry Descent and Landing (EDL) and Planetary Surface exploration. For some of them VBNAV can improve the accuracy in state estimation as additional relative navigation sensor or as absolute navigation sensor. For some others, like surface mobility and terrain exploration for path identification and planning, VBNAV is mandatory. This paper presents the general avionic architecture of a Vision Based System as defined in the frame of the ESA R&T study “Multi-purpose Vision-based Navigation System Engineering Model - part 1 (VisNav-EM-1)” with special focus on the surface mobility application.

  12. Emergence of the First Catalytic Oligonucleotides in a Formamide-Based Origin Scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Šponer, Judit E; Šponer, Jiří; Nováková, Olga; Brabec, Viktor; Šedo, Ondrej; Zdráhal, Zbyněk; Costanzo, Giovanna; Pino, Samanta; Saladino, Raffaele; Di Mauro, Ernesto

    2016-03-01

    50 years after the historical Miller-Urey experiment, the formamide-based scenario is perhaps the most powerful concurrent hypothesis for the origin of life on our planet besides the traditional HCN-based concept. The information accumulated during the last 15 years in this topic is astonishingly growing and nowadays the formamide-based model represents one of the most complete and coherent pathways leading from simple prebiotic precursors up to the first catalytically active RNA molecules. In this work, we overview the major events of this long pathway that have emerged from recent experimental and theoretical studies, mainly concentrating on the mechanistic, methodological, and structural aspects of this research. PMID:26807661

  13. COMPARISON AND ANALYSIS OF GREEDY FORWARDING USING BNGF METHOD IN DIFFERENT VEHICULAR TRAFFIC SCENARIOS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ram Shringar Raw

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available A Vehicular Ad hoc Network (VANET is a most popular application of Mobile Ad hoc Networks (MANETs. A lot of research work around the world is being conducted to design an efficient routing protocol for VANETs. In this paper, we examine the significance of Greedy Forwarding with Border Node based approach for VANETs. We propose a position based routing protocol to forward packet to the border nodes of the forwarding nodeas the next-hop node. This protocol is called Border Node based Greedy Forwarding (BNGF since it uses border nodes with greedy forwarding. We categorize BNGF as BNGF-H for highway and BNGF-C for city traffic scenario. We have simulated this protocol using NS-2 simulator and evaluated the performance in terms of end-to-end delay and packet delivery ratio. We have compared both the methods for highway and city traffic scenarios. The results clearly show that the end-toend delay for BNGF-C is significantly lower and packet delivery ratio is higher than BNGF-H.

  14. VOIP Call Optimization in Diverse Network Scenarios Using Learning Based State-Space Search Technique

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tamal Chakraborty

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available A VoIP based call has stringent QoS requirements with respect to delay, jitter, loss, MOS and R-Factor. Various QoS mechanisms implemented to satisfy these requirements must be adaptive under diverse network scenarios and applied in proper sequence, otherwise they may conflict with each other. The objective of this paper is to address the problem of adaptive QoS maintenance and sequential executionof available QoS implementation mechanisms with respect to VoIP under varying network conditions. In this paper, we generalize this problem as state-space problem and solve it. Firstly, we map the problem of QoS optimization into state-space domain and apply incremental heuristic search. We implement the proposed algorithm under various network and user scenarios in a VoIP test-bed for QoS enhancement. Then learning strategy is implemented for refinement of knowledge base to improve the performance of call quality over time. Finally, we discuss the advantages and uniqueness of our approach.

  15. Scenario-Based Software Architecture for Designing Connectors Framework in Distributed System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hamid Mcheick

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Software connectors is one of key word in enterprise information system. In recent years, software developers have facing more challenges of connectors which are used to connect distributed components. Design of connectors in an existing system encounters many issues such as choosing the connectors based on scenario quality, matching these connectors with design pattern, and implementing them. Especially, we concentrate on identifying the attributes that interest an observer, identifying the functions where these connectors could be applied, and keeping all applications clean after adding new connectors. Each problem is described by a scenario to design architecture, especially to design a connector based on architecture attributes. In this paper, we develop a software framework to design connectors between components and solution of these issues. A case study is done to maintain high level of independency between components and to illustrate this independency. This case study uses Aspect-Oriented Programming (AOP and AspectJ, Design Pattern to and Program Slicing to solve main problems of design of connectors. A conclusion is given at the end of this paper.

  16. Realisable scenarios for a future electricity supply based 100% on renewable energies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Czisch, G. [Univ. of Kassel, Inst. for Electrical Engineering - Efficient Energy Conversion (Germany); Giebel, G. [Risoe National Lab., DTU, Roskilde (Denmark)

    2007-05-15

    In view of the resource and climate problems, it seems obvious that we must transform our energy system into one using only renewable energies. But questions arise how such a system should be structured, which techniques should be used and, of course, how costly it might be. These questions were the focus of a study which investigated the cost optimum of a future renewable electricity supply for Europe and its closer Asian and African neighbourhood. The resulting scenarios are based on a broad data basis of the electricity consumption and for renewable energies. A linear optimisation determines the best system configuration and temporal dispatch of all components. The outcome of the scenarios can be considered as being a scientific breakthrough since it proves that a totally renewable electricity supply is possible even with current technology and at the same time is affordable for our national economies. In the conservative base case scenario, wind power would dominate the production spread over the better wind areas within the whole supply area, connected with the demand centres via HVDC transmission. The transmission system, furthermore, powerfully integrates the existing storage hydropower to provide for backup co-equally assisted by biomass power and supported by solar thermal electricity. The main results of the different scenarios can be summarized as follows: 1) A totally renewable electricity supply for Europe and its neighbourhood is possible and affordable. 2) Electricity import from non-European neighbour countries can be a very valuable and substantial component of a future supply. 3) Smoothing effects by the use of sources at locations in different climate zones improve the security of the supply and reduce the costs. 4) A large-scale co-operation of many different countries opens up for the possibility to combine the goals of development policy and climate politics in a multilateral win-win strategy. To aid implementation, an international extension

  17. Realisable scenarios for a future electricity supply based 100% on renewable energies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In view of the resource and climate problems, it seems obvious that we must transform our energy system into one using only renewable energies. But questions arise how such a system should be structured, which techniques should be used and, of course, how costly it might be. These questions were the focus of a study which investigated the cost optimum of a future renewable electricity supply for Europe and its closer Asian and African neighbourhood. The resulting scenarios are based on a broad data basis of the electricity consumption and for renewable energies. A linear optimisation determines the best system configuration and temporal dispatch of all components. The outcome of the scenarios can be considered as being a scientific breakthrough since it proves that a totally renewable electricity supply is possible even with current technology and at the same time is affordable for our national economies. In the conservative base case scenario, wind power would dominate the production spread over the better wind areas within the whole supply area, connected with the demand centres via HVDC transmission. The transmission system, furthermore, powerfully integrates the existing storage hydropower to provide for backup co-equally assisted by biomass power and supported by solar thermal electricity. The main results of the different scenarios can be summarized as follows: 1) A totally renewable electricity supply for Europe and its neighbourhood is possible and affordable. 2) Electricity import from non-European neighbour countries can be a very valuable and substantial component of a future supply. 3) Smoothing effects by the use of sources at locations in different climate zones improve the security of the supply and reduce the costs. 4) A large-scale co-operation of many different countries opens up for the possibility to combine the goals of development policy and climate politics in a multilateral win-win strategy. To aid implementation, an international extension

  18. Ex-Vessel Steam Explosion Analysis of Central Melt Pour Scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    gained at 2 bar primary system overpressure and water sub-cooling of 50 degree C. The purpose of the work presented in the paper is to perform a detailed analysis of the central melt pour scenario at 2 bar primary system overpressure and water sub-cooling of 50 degree C, where the strongest steam explosion occurred. The steam explosion analysis will be performed with the computer code MC3D, which is build mainly for the simulation of the complex FCI phenomena. The MC3D is being developed by IRSN, France. The reasons for the obtained so high pressure loads during the steam explosion in the selected scenario will be highlighted and discussed in details.(author)

  19. Scenario-based resilience assessment framework for critical infrastructure systems: Case study for seismic resilience of seaports

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A number of metrics in the past have been proposed and numerically implemented to assess the overall performance of large systems during natural disasters and their recovery in the aftermath of the events. Among such performance measures, resilience is a reliable metric. This paper proposes a probabilistic framework for scenario-based resilience assessment of infrastructure systems. The method accounts for uncertainties in the process including the correlation of the earthquake intensity measures, fragility assessment of structural components, estimation of repair requirements, the repair process, and finally the service demands. The proposed method is applied to a hypothetical seaport terminal and the system level performance of the seaport is assessed using various performance metrics. Results of this analysis have shown that medium to large seismic events may significantly disrupt the operation of seaports right after the event and the recovery process may take months. The proposed framework will enable port stakeholders to systematically assess the most-likely performance of the system during expected future earthquake events. - Highlights: • A scenario-based framework for seismic resilience assessment of systems is presented. • Seismic resilience of a hypothetical seaport with realistic settings is studied. • Berth availability is found to govern seaport functionality following earthquakes

  20. River discharge and flood inundation over the Amazon based on IPCC AR5 scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paiva, Rodrigo; Sorribas, Mino; Jones, Charles; Carvalho, Leila; Melack, John; Bravo, Juan Martin; Beighley, Edward

    2015-04-01

    Climate change and related effects over the hydrologic regime of the Amazon River basin could have major impacts over human and ecological communities, including issues with transportation, flood vulnerability, fisheries and hydropower generation. We examined future changes in discharge and floodplain inundation within the Amazon River basin. We used the hydrological model MGB-IPH (Modelo de Grandes Bacias - Instituto de Pesquisas Hidráulicas) coupled with a 1D river hydrodynamic model simulating water storage over the floodplains. The model was forced using satellite based precipitation from the TRMM 3B42 dataset, and it had a good performance when validated against discharge and stage measurements as well as remotely sensed data, including radar altimetry-based water levels, gravity anomaly-based terrestrial water storage and flood inundation extent. Future scenarios of precipitation and other relevant climatic variables for the 2070 to 2100 time period were taken from five coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) from IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The climate models were chosen based on their ability to represent the main aspects of recent (1970 to 2000) Amazon climate. A quantile-quantile bias removal procedure was applied to climate model precipitation to mitigate unreliable predictions. The hydrologic model was then forced using past observed climate data altered by delta change factors based on the past and future climate models aiming to estimate projected discharge and floodplain inundation in climate change scenario at several control points in the basin. The climate projections present large uncertainty, especially the precipitation rate, and predictions using different climate models do not agree on the sign of changes on total Amazon flood extent or discharge along the main stem of the Amazon River. However, analyses of results at different regions indicate an increase

  1. Systems Analysis, Scenario Construction and Consequence Analysis Definition for SITE-94

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    SITE-94 is a performance assessment of a hypothetical repository at a real site. The main objective of the project is to determine how site specific data should be assimilated into the performance assessment process and to evaluate how uncertainties inherent in site characterization will influence performance assessment results. This report uses scenario definition work as a vehicle to introduce the systems approach to performance assessment which has been developed and tested in SITE-94 and which constitutes one of the main advances made during the project. The results of the application of the methodology are presented separately, in the SITE-94 Summary Report. 40 refs, 21 figs, 12 tabs

  2. Systems Analysis, Scenario Construction and Consequence Analysis Definition for SITE-94

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chapman, N.A.; Robinson, P. [Intera Information Technologies Ltd (United Kingdom); Andersson, Johan; Wingefors, S. [Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate, Stockholm (Sweden); Skagius, K.; Wiborgh, M. [Kemakta Konsult AB, Stockholm (Sweden); Wene, C.O. [Chalmers Inst. of Technology, Goeteborg (Sweden)

    1995-06-01

    SITE-94 is a performance assessment of a hypothetical repository at a real site. The main objective of the project is to determine how site specific data should be assimilated into the performance assessment process and to evaluate how uncertainties inherent in site characterization will influence performance assessment results. This report uses scenario definition work as a vehicle to introduce the systems approach to performance assessment which has been developed and tested in SITE-94 and which constitutes one of the main advances made during the project. The results of the application of the methodology are presented separately, in the SITE-94 Summary Report. 40 refs, 21 figs, 12 tabs.

  3. Radiation Detection Scenario Analysis Toolbox (RADSAT) Test Case Implementation Final Report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Final report for the project. This project was designed to demonstrate the use of the Radiation Detection Scenario Analysis Toolbox (RADSAT) radiation detection transport modeling package (developed in a previous NA-22 project) for specific radiation detection scenarios important to proliferation detection. This project was designed to demonstrate the use of the Radiation Detection Scenario Analysis Toolbox (RADSAT) radiation detection transport modeling package (developed in a previous NA-22 project) for specific radiation detection scenarios important to proliferation detection. RADSAT is founded on a 3-dimensional deterministic radiation transport solver capable of efficiently computing the radiation field at all points in complex, large-scale problems (e.g. buildings). These results are then coupled to a Monte Carlo detector response simulator. For this project Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) staff applied RADSAT to two specific instruments and scenarios, in close collaboration with the developers of each technology. The first is a neutron-scatter camera for detection of concealed neutron-emitting sources developed at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) and the second is a spent-fuel verification system for fuel assemblies in storage casks developed at Idaho National Laboratory (INL). To simulate detector responses, RADSAT uses a source modified version of Monte Carlo N-Particle Version 5 (MCNP5), which does not produce all of the information required to produce images for the scatter camera system. SNL models the scatter camera with Monte Carlo N-Particle - Politecnico di Milano (MCNP-PoliMi), which utilizes more accurate neutron elastic scattering physics and secondary gamma-ray production essential for modeling time-dependent events in multiple detectors. Therefore, RADSAT currently will not work for generating images for the scatter camera. However, it was demonstrated that RADSAT calculated the correct individual detector response, which

  4. Evaluating adaptation options for urban flooding based on new high-end emission scenario regional climate model simulations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Leonardsen, L.; Madsen, Henrik

    2015-01-01

    regional climate model projection forced to a global temperature increase of 6 degrees C in 2100 as well as a projection based on a high radiative forcing scenario (RCP8.5). With these scenarios, projected impacts of extreme precipitation increase significantly. For extreme sea surges, the impacts do not...... almost 4 and 8 times the current EAD for the RCP8.5 and 6 degrees C scenario, respectively. For both hazards, business-as-usual is not a possible scenario, since even in the absence of policy-driven changes, significant autonomous adaptation is likely to occur. Copenhagen has developed an adaptation plan...... risk is significantly reduced (corresponding to 0.6-1.0 and 1.2-2.1 times the current EAD for the RCP8.5 and 6 degrees C scenario, respectively)....

  5. Achieving deep reductions in US transport greenhouse gas emissions: Scenario analysis and policy implications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper investigates the potential for making deep cuts in US transportation greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the long-term (50-80% below 1990 levels by 2050). Scenarios are used to envision how such a significant decarbonization might be achieved through the application of advanced vehicle technologies and fuels, and various options for behavioral change. A Kaya framework that decomposes GHG emissions into the product of four major drivers is used to analyze emissions and mitigation options. In contrast to most previous studies, a relatively simple, easily adaptable modeling methodology is used which can incorporate insights from other modeling studies and organize them in a way that is easy for policymakers to understand. Also, a wider range of transportation subsectors is considered here-light- and heavy-duty vehicles, aviation, rail, marine, agriculture, off-road, and construction. This analysis investigates scenarios with multiple options (increased efficiency, lower-carbon fuels, and travel demand management) across the various subsectors and confirms the notion that there are no 'silver bullet' strategies for making deep cuts in transport GHGs. If substantial emission reductions are to be made, considerable action is needed on all fronts, and no subsectors can be ignored. Light-duty vehicles offer the greatest potential for emission reductions; however, while deep reductions in other subsectors are also possible, there are more limitations in the types of fuels and propulsion systems that can be used. In all cases travel demand management strategies are critical; deep emission cuts will not likely be possible without slowing growth in travel demand across all modes. Even though these scenarios represent only a small subset of the potential futures in which deep reductions might be achieved, they provide a sense of the magnitude of changes required in our transportation system and the need for early and aggressive action if long-term targets are to be met.

  6. Comparison of future energy scenarios for Denmark: IDA 2050, CEESA (Coherent Energy and Environmental System Analysis), and Climate Commission 2050

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scenario-making is becoming an important tool in energy policy making and energy systems analyses. This article probes into the making of scenarios for Denmark by presenting a comparison of three future scenarios which narrate 100% renewable energy system for Denmark in 2050; IDA 2050, Climate Commission 2050, and CEESA (Coherent Energy and Environmental System Analysis). Generally, although with minor differences, the scenarios suggest the same technological solutions for the future such as expansion of biomass usage and wind power capacity, integration of transport sector into the other energy sectors. The methodologies used in two academic scenarios, IDA 2050 and CEESA, are compared. The main differences in the methodologies of IDA 2050 and CEESA are found in the estimation of future biomass potential, transport demand assessment, and a trial to examine future power grid in an electrical engineering perspective. The above-mentioned methodologies are compared in an evolutionary perspective to determine if the methodologies reflect the complex reality well. The results of the scenarios are also assessed within the framework of “radical technological change” in order to show which future scenario assumes more radical change within five dimensions of technology; technique, knowledge, organization, product, and profit. -- Highlights: ► Three future scenarios for Danish future in 2050 are compared. ► All of these scenarios suggest the same solutions for the future with minor differences. ► There are differences in methodologies for IDA 2050 and CEESA such as biomass, transport, and power grid. ► The contents of scenarios are assessed which scenario assume more radical technological change in the future.

  7. Simulation supported scenario analysis for water resources planning: a case study in northern Italy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Facchi, A; Gandolfi, C; Ortuani, B; Maggi, D

    2005-01-01

    The work presents the results of a comprehensive modelling study of surface and groundwater resources in the Muzza-Bassa Lodigiana irrigation district, in Northern Italy. It assesses the impact of changes in land use and irrigation water availability on the distribution of crop water consumption in space and time, as well as on the groundwater resources. A distributed, integrated surface water-groundwater simulation system was implemented and applied to the study area. The system is based on the coupling of a conceptual vadose zone model with the groundwater model MODFLOW. To assess the impact of land use and irrigation water availability on water deficit for crops as well as on groundwater system in the area, a number of management scenarios were identified and compared with a base scenario, reflecting the present conditions. Changes in land use may alter significantly both total crop water requirement and aquifer recharge. Water supply is sufficient to meet demand under present conditions and, from the crop water use viewpoint, a reduction of water availability has a positive effect on the overall irrigation system efficiency; however, evapotranspiration deficit increases, concentrated in July and August, when it may be critical for maize crops. PMID:15850169

  8. Multimedia Scenario Based Learning Programme for Enhancing the English Language Efficiency among Primary School Students

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Navnath Tupe

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available This research was undertaken with a view to assess the deficiencies in English language among Primary School Children and to develop Multimedia Scenario Based Learning Programme (MSBLP for mastery of English language which required special attention and effective treatment. The experimental study with pretest, post-test control group design was employed to carry out the experiment of MSBLP in a sample school and to determine its efficacy for enhancing English Language skills among Primary School Students. In India, the Central and State Government has made great efforts to Education for All (EFA and initiated several programs to provide universal access to education, to reduce the drop-out rates and ensure achievement of minimum levels of learning. To our surprise the scenario had not much changed inside the classroom even implementing several programmes. However, it was still unclear how effective was the delivery of the course content in the classroom. An intensive training for teachers on a regular basis on a state-wide scale may not be feasible again and again. Hence, multimedia offers pragmatic solutions So that this research paper devoted to explore the issues of learning English and describes the creation of MSBLP as a solution in scientific manner.

  9. Scenario-based water resources planning for utilities in the Lake Victoria region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mehta, Vishal K.; Aslam, Omar; Dale, Larry; Miller, Norman; Purkey, David R.

    Urban areas in the Lake Victoria (LV) region are experiencing the highest growth rates in Africa. As efforts to meet increasing demand accelerate, integrated water resources management (IWRM) tools provide opportunities for utilities and other stakeholders to develop a planning framework comprehensive enough to include short term (e.g. landuse change), as well as longer term (e.g. climate change) scenarios. This paper presents IWRM models built using the Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) decision support system, for three towns in the LV region - Bukoba (Tanzania), Masaka (Uganda), and Kisii (Kenya). Each model was calibrated under current system performance based on site visits, utility reporting and interviews. Projected water supply, demand, revenues and costs were then evaluated against a combination of climate, demographic and infrastructure scenarios up to 2050. Our results show that water supply in all three towns is currently infrastructure limited; achieving existing design capacity could meet most projected demand until 2020s in Masaka beyond which new supply and conservation strategies would be needed. In Bukoba, reducing leakages would provide little performance improvement in the short-term, but doubling capacity would meet all demands until 2050. In Kisii, major infrastructure investment is urgently needed. In Masaka, streamflow simulations show that wetland sources could satisfy all demand until 2050, but at the cost of almost no water downstream of the intake. These models demonstrate the value of IWRM tools for developing water management plans that integrate hydroclimatology-driven supply to demand projections on a single platform.

  10. Low carbon scenarios for transport in India: Co-benefits analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dependence on oil for transport is a concern for India's policymakers on three counts – energy security, local environment and climate change. Rapid urbanisation and accompanying motorisation has created some of the most polluting cities in India and rising demand for oil is leading to higher imports, besides causing more CO2 emissions. The government of India wants to achieve the climate goals through a sustainability approach that simultaneously addresses other environment and developmental challenges. This paper analyses a sustainable low carbon transport (SLCT) scenario based on sustainable strategies for passenger and freight mobility, vehicle technologies and fuel using global CO2 prices that correspond to 2 °C global stabilisation target. The scenarios span from years 2010 to 2050 and are analysed using the energy system model-ANSWER MARKAL. The SLCT scenario has improved energy security (cumulative oil demand lower by 3100 Mtoe), improved air quality (PM 2.5 emissions never exceed the existing levels) and the cumulative CO2 emissions are lower by 13 billion t CO2 thereby showing that achieving development objectives with CO2 co-benefits is feasible. -- Highlights: •India's BAU transitions pose challenges for energy security and climate change. •Sustainable transport policies deliver benefits for air quality and energy security. •Sustainable transport policies fall short of mitigation needed for 2 °C stabilisation. •Transport sector becomes increasingly dependent on electricity. •Low carbon policies are essential to clean transport and electricity generation

  11. Basin-scale Modeling of Geological Carbon Sequestration: Model Complexity, Injection Scenario and Sensitivity Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, X.; Bandilla, K.; Celia, M. A.; Bachu, S.

    2013-12-01

    Geological carbon sequestration can significantly contribute to climate-change mitigation only if it is deployed at a very large scale. This means that injection scenarios must occur, and be analyzed, at the basin scale. Various mathematical models of different complexity may be used to assess the fate of injected CO2 and/or resident brine. These models span the range from multi-dimensional, multi-phase numerical simulators to simple single-phase analytical solutions. In this study, we consider a range of models, all based on vertically-integrated governing equations, to predict the basin-scale pressure response to specific injection scenarios. The Canadian section of the Basal Aquifer is used as a test site to compare the different modeling approaches. The model domain covers an area of approximately 811,000 km2, and the total injection rate is 63 Mt/yr, corresponding to 9 locations where large point sources have been identified. Predicted areas of critical pressure exceedance are used as a comparison metric among the different modeling approaches. Comparison of the results shows that single-phase numerical models may be good enough to predict the pressure response over a large aquifer; however, a simple superposition of semi-analytical or analytical solutions is not sufficiently accurate because spatial variability of formation properties plays an important role in the problem, and these variations are not captured properly with simple superposition. We consider two different injection scenarios: injection at the source locations and injection at locations with more suitable aquifer properties. Results indicate that in formations with significant spatial variability of properties, strong variations in injectivity among the different source locations can be expected, leading to the need to transport the captured CO2 to suitable injection locations, thereby necessitating development of a pipeline network. We also consider the sensitivity of porosity and

  12. Analysis of Reactor Deployment Scenarios with Introduction of SFR Breakeven Reactors and Burners Using DANESS Code

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Young In; Hahn, Do Hee; Won, Byung Chool; Lee, Dong Uk

    2008-01-15

    Using the DANESS code newly employed for future scenario analysis, reactor deployment scenarios with the introduction of sodium cooled fast reactors(SFRs) having different conversion ratios in the existing PWRs dominant nuclear fleet have been analyzed to find the SFR deployment strategy for replacing PWRs with the view of a spent fuel reduction and an efficient uranium utilization through its reuse in a closed nuclear fuel cycle. Descriptions of the DANESS code and how to use are briefly given from the viewpoint of its first application. The use of SFRs and recycling of TRUs by reusing PWR spent fuel leads to the substantial reduction of the amount of PWR spent fuel and environmental burden by decreasing radiotoxicity of high level waste, and a significant improvement on the natural uranium resources utilization. A continuous deployment of burners effectively decreases the amount of PWR spent fuel accumulation, thus lightening the burden for PWR spent fuel management. An introduction of breakeven reactors effectively reduces the uranium demand through producing excess TRU during the operation, thus contributing to a sustainable nuclear power development. With SFR introduction starting in 2040, PWRs will remain as a main power reactor type till 2100 and SFRs will be in support of waste minimization and fuel utilization.

  13. Insights into future air quality: a multipollutant analysis of future scenarios using the MARKAL model

    Science.gov (United States)

    In this presentation, we will provide an update on the development and evaluation of the Air Quality Futures (AQF) scenarios. These scenarios represent widely different assumptions regarding the evolution of the U.S. energy system over the next 40 years. The four AQF scenarios di...

  14. Techno-Economic Analysis of Biochemical Scenarios for Production of Cellulosic Ethanol

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kazi, F. K.; Fortman, J.; Anex, R.; Kothandaraman, G.; Hsu, D.; Aden, A.; Dutta, A.

    2010-06-01

    A techno-economic analysis on the production of cellulosic ethanol by fermentation was conducted to understand the viability of liquid biofuel production processes within the next 5-8 years. Initially, 35 technologies were reviewed, then a two-step down selection was performed to choose scenarios to be evaluated in a more detailed economic analysis. The lignocellulosic ethanol process was selected because it is well studied and portions of the process have been tested at pilot scales. Seven process variations were selected and examined in detail. Process designs were constrained to public data published in 2007 or earlier, without projecting for future process improvements. Economic analysis was performed for an 'nth plant' (mature technology) to obtain total investment and product value (PV). Sensitivity analysis was performed on PV to assess the impact of variations in process and economic parameters. Results show that the modeled dilute acid pretreatment process without any downstream process variation had the lowest PV of $3.40/gal of ethanol ($5.15/gallon of gasoline equivalent) in 2007 dollars. Sensitivity analysis shows that PV is most sensitive to feedstock and enzyme costs.

  15. Analysis of LOCA Scenarios in the NIST Research Reactor Before and After Fuel Conversion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baek, J. S. [Brookhaven National Lab. (BNL), Upton, NY (United States); Cheng, L. Y. [Brookhaven National Lab. (BNL), Upton, NY (United States); Diamond, D. [Brookhaven National Lab. (BNL), Upton, NY (United States)

    2015-08-30

    An analysis has been done of hypothetical loss-of-coolant-accidents (LOCAs) in the research reactor (NBSR) at the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST). The purpose of the analysis is to determine if the peak clad temperature remains below the Safety Limit, which is the blister temperature for the fuel. The configuration of the NBSR considered in the analysis is that projected for the future when changes will be made so that shutdown pumps do not operate when a LOCA signal is detected. The analysis was done for the present core with high-enriched uranium (HEU) fuel and with the proposed low-enriched uranium (LEU) fuel that would be used when the NBSR is converted from one to the other. The analysis consists of two parts. The first examines how the water would drain from the primary system following a break and the possibility for the loss of coolant from within the fuel element flow channels. This work is performed using the TRACE system thermal-hydraulic code. The second looks at the fuel clad temperature as a function of time given that the water may have drained from many of the flow channels and the water in the vessel is in a quasi-equilibrium state. The temperature behavior is investigated using the three-dimensional heat conduction code HEATING7.3. The results in all scenarios considered for both HEU and LEU fuel show that the peak clad temperature remains below the blister temperature.

  16. Analysis of LOCA Scenarios in the NIST Research Reactor Before and After Fuel Conversion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    An analysis has been done of hypothetical loss-of-coolant-accidents (LOCAs) in the research reactor (NBSR) at the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST). The purpose of the analysis is to determine if the peak clad temperature remains below the Safety Limit, which is the blister temperature for the fuel. The configuration of the NBSR considered in the analysis is that projected for the future when changes will be made so that shutdown pumps do not operate when a LOCA signal is detected. The analysis was done for the present core with high-enriched uranium (HEU) fuel and with the proposed low-enriched uranium (LEU) fuel that would be used when the NBSR is converted from one to the other. The analysis consists of two parts. The first examines how the water would drain from the primary system following a break and the possibility for the loss of coolant from within the fuel element flow channels. This work is performed using the TRACE system thermal-hydraulic code. The second looks at the fuel clad temperature as a function of time given that the water may have drained from many of the flow channels and the water in the vessel is in a quasi-equilibrium state. The temperature behavior is investigated using the three-dimensional heat conduction code HEATING7.3. The results in all scenarios considered for both HEU and LEU fuel show that the peak clad temperature remains below the blister temperature.

  17. Climate influences on the cost-effectiveness of vector-based interventions against malaria in elimination scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parham, Paul E; Hughes, Dyfrig A

    2015-04-01

    Despite the dependence of mosquito population dynamics on environmental conditions, the associated impact of climate and climate change on present and future malaria remains an area of ongoing debate and uncertainty. Here, we develop a novel integration of mosquito, transmission and economic modelling to assess whether the cost-effectiveness of indoor residual spraying (IRS) and long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) against Plasmodium falciparum transmission by Anopheles gambiae s.s. mosquitoes depends on climatic conditions in low endemicity scenarios. We find that although temperature and rainfall affect the cost-effectiveness of IRS and/or LLIN scale-up, whether this is sufficient to influence policy depends on local endemicity, existing interventions, host immune response to infection and the emergence rate of insecticide resistance. For the scenarios considered, IRS is found to be more cost-effective than LLINs for the same level of scale-up, and both are more cost-effective at lower mean precipitation and higher variability in precipitation and temperature. We also find that the dependence of peak transmission on mean temperature translates into optimal temperatures for vector-based intervention cost-effectiveness. Further cost-effectiveness analysis that accounts for country-specific epidemiological and environmental heterogeneities is required to assess optimal intervention scale-up for elimination and better understand future transmission trends under climate change. PMID:25688017

  18. Global sensitivity analysis of the BSM2 dynamic influent disturbance scenario generator

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Flores-Alsina, Xavier; Gernaey, Krist V.; Jeppsson, Ulf

    2012-01-01

    then applied, classifying the influence of the model parameters into strong, medium and weak. The results show that the method is able to decompose the variance of the model predictions (R-2 > 0.9) satisfactorily, thus identifying the model parameters with strongest impact on several flow rate...... dry and wet weather conditions the SRC ranking changes when the time scale of the analysis is modified, thus demonstrating the potential to identify the effect of the model parameters on the fast/medium/slow dynamics of the flow rate. The paper ends with a discussion on the interpretation of GSA...... results and of the advantages of using synthetic dynamic flow rate data for WWTP influent scenario generation. This section also includes general suggestions on how to use the proposed methodology to any influent generator to adapt the created time series to a modeller's demands....

  19. Participatory scenario planning in place-based social-ecological research

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rozas, Elisa Oteros; Martín-López, Berta; Daw, Tim M.;

    2015-01-01

    on existing practices and their appropriate application for different objectives and contexts at the local scale, as well as on their potential perceived outcomes. We contribute to theoretical and empirical frameworks by analyzing how and why researchers assess social-ecological systems using place...... approach; (4) the process; (5) the content of the scenarios; (6) the outputs of the research; and (7) the monitoring and evaluation of the PSP process. This was complemented by a reflection on strengths and weaknesses of using PSP for the place-based social-ecological research. We conclude that the...... application of PSP, particularly when tailored to shared objectives between local people and researchers, has enriched environmental management and scientific research through building common understanding and fostering learning about future planning of social-ecological systems. However, PSP still requires...

  20. A web-based 3D visualisation and assessment system for urban precinct scenario modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trubka, Roman; Glackin, Stephen; Lade, Oliver; Pettit, Chris

    2016-07-01

    Recent years have seen an increasing number of spatial tools and technologies for enabling better decision-making in the urban environment. They have largely arisen because of the need for cities to be more efficiently planned to accommodate growing populations while mitigating urban sprawl, and also because of innovations in rendering data in 3D being well suited for visualising the urban built environment. In this paper we review a number of systems that are better known and more commonly used in the field of urban planning. We then introduce Envision Scenario Planner (ESP), a web-based 3D precinct geodesign, visualisation and assessment tool, developed using Agile and Co-design methods. We provide a comprehensive account of the tool, beginning with a discussion of its design and development process and concluding with an example use case and a discussion of the lessons learned in its development.

  1. Scenario-based Water Resources Management Using the Water Value Concept

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hassanzadeh, Elmira; Elshorbagy, Amin; Wheater, Howard

    2013-04-01

    The Saskatchewan River is the key water resource for the 3 prairie provinces of Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba in Western Canada, and thus it is necessary to pursue long-term regional and watershed-based planning for the river basin. The water resources system is complex because it includes multiple components, representing various demand sectors, including the environment, which impose conflicting objectives, and multiple jurisdictions. The biophysical complexity is exacerbated by the socioeconomic dimensions associated for example with impacts of land and water management, value systems including environmental flows, and policy and governance dimensions.. We focus on the South Saskatchewan River Basin (SSRB) in Alberta and Saskatchewan, which is already fully allocated in southern Alberta and is subject to increasing demand due to rapid economic development and a growing population. Multiple sectors and water uses include agricultural, municipal, industrial, mining, hydropower, and environmental flow requirements. The significant spatial variability in the level of development and future needs for water places different values on water across the basin. Water resources planning and decision making must take these complexities into consideration, yet also deal with a new dimension—climate change and its possible future impacts on water resources systems. There is a pressing need to deal with water in terms of its value, rather than a mere commodity subject to traditional quantitative optimization. In this research, a value-based water resources system (VWRS) model is proposed to couple the hydrological and the societal aspects of water resources in one integrated modeling tool for the SSRB. The objective of this work is to develop the VWRS model as a negotiation, planning, and management tool that allows for the assessment of the availability, as well as the allocation scenarios, of water resources for competing users under varying conditions. The proposed

  2. ABM and GIS-based multi-scenarios volcanic evacuation modelling of Merapi

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jumadi, Carver, Steve; Quincey, Duncan

    2016-05-01

    Conducting effective evacuation is one of the successful keys to deal with such crisis. Therefore, a plan that considers the probability of the spatial extent of the hazard occurrences is needed. Likewise, the evacuation plan in Merapi is already prepared before the eruption on 2010. However, the plan could not be performed because the eruption magnitude was bigger than it was predicted. In this condition, the extent of the hazardous area was increased larger than the prepared hazard model. Managing such unpredicted situation need adequate information that flexible and adaptable to the current situation. Therefore, we applied an Agent-based Model (ABM) and Geographic Information System (GIS) using multi-scenarios hazard model to support the evacuation management. The methodology and the case study in Merapi is provided.

  3. The Development of Ball Control Techniques for Robot Soccer based on Predefined Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Omar

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Robotic soccer is an attractive topic in artificial intelligence and robotics research. However, to develop techniques and algorithms in this domain is a complex task. This study presents the development of ball control techniques and algorithms for robot soccer based on several predefined scenarios. In this study, we study the robot can do ball passing, obstacle avoiding and ball shooting according to certain situations. A vision system is used in this case where it calculates the robot position in x, y coordinates to make sure the robots move to the right direction. The velocity of each robot wheel is manipulated to control the speed of the robots and allow them to make turning and shooting. Algorithm testing was carried out by using a robot soccer simulator. Several techniques in obstacle avoiding and positioning were successfully implemented. The results prove these algorithms can be applied to execute the given tasks.

  4. Waste Isolation Safety Assessment Program scenario analysis methods for use in assessing the safety of the geologic isolation of nuclear waste

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The relative utility of the various safety analysis methods to scenario analysis for a repository system was evaluated by judging the degree to which certain criteria are satisfied by use of the method. Six safety analysis methods were reviewed in this report for possible use in scenario analysis of nuclear waste repositories: expert opinion, perspectives analysis, fault trees/event trees, Monte Carlo simulation, Markov chains, and classical systems analysis. Four criteria have been selected. The criteria suggest that the methods: (1) be quantitative and scientifically based; (2) model the potential disruptive events and processes, (3) model the system before and after failure (sufficiently detailed to provide for subsequent consequence analysis); and (4) be compatible with the level of available system knowledge and data. Expert opinion, fault trees/event trees, Monte Carlo simulation and classical systems analysis were judged to have the greatest potential appliation to the problem of scenario analysis. The methods were found to be constrained by limited data and by knowledge of the processes governing the system. It was determined that no single method is clearly superior to others when measured against all the criteria. Therefore, to get the best understanding of system behavior, a combination of the methods is recommended. Monte Carlo simulation was judged to be the most suitable matrix in which to incorporate a combination of methods

  5. Identifying the potential CO2-efficiency for the Deutsche Post DHL delivery fleet based on vehicle technology scenarios

    OpenAIRE

    Propfe, Bernd; Schlaghecken, Georg; Jüchter, Achim; Schmid, Stephan

    2011-01-01

    In order to identify the CO2-reduction potential of the German delivery fleet of Deutsche Post DHL, this study analyzes 3 different fleet scenarios. Based on a newly developed driving cycle that matches the specific requirements of delivery trucks, fuel consumptions for 6 different types of powertrains have been simulated. Subsequently, 3 fleet scenarios up to 2020 have been calculated with VECTOR21. A comparison of potential CO2-reductions and corresponding costs for the entire delivery f...

  6. A change navigation-based, scenario planning process within a developing world context from an Afro-centric leadership perspective

    OpenAIRE

    Chris A. Geldenhuys; Theo H. Veldsman

    2011-01-01

    Orientation: In the hyper turbulent context faced currently by organisations, more flexible strategic planning approaches, such as scenario planning which take into account a more comprehensive range of possible futures for an organisation, will position organisations better than conventional forecast and estimates that depend only on a single, linearly extrapolated, strategic response.Research purpose: This study aimed to investigate how scenario-based planning (a strictly cognitive man...

  7. On Scenario-based Model-driven Configuration Management for Flexible Networking Experimentation Infrastructures

    OpenAIRE

    Galán Márquez, Fermín

    2010-01-01

    The goal of the present dissertation is to improve the current state of the art in configuration management in networking experimentation infrastructures (testbeds). In particular, our goal is to solve the scenario technology-dependency problem, so the same scenarios can be reused in different testbeds. In order to achieve this goal, three objectives have to be addressed. First, to develop a model-driven configuration management architecture that decouples scenario specifications from the...

  8. Intermediate steps towards the 2000-Watt society in Switzerland: an energy-economic scenario analysis[Dissertation 17314

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schulz, T. F

    2007-07-01

    In this dissertation by Thorsten Frank Schulz the intermediate steps necessary to realise the 2000-Watt Society in Switzerland are examined. An analysis of an energy-economic scenario shows that the 2000-Watt Society should be seen as a long-term goal. According to the author, the major changes required to allow the implementation of this project concern energy-transformation and energy-demand technologies. Electricity will, according to the author, play an important role in a service-oriented society in the future. In such a transformation even intermediate steps are associated with considerable expense. The aims of the 2000-Watt Society project are listed. Energy and CO{sub 2} balances for the domestic and transport sectors are presented and discussed. Complementary analyses are presented concerning fuel cells and wood-based fuel technologies. Finally, the implications of the 2000-Watt society and the effects of technological change are summarised and an outlook is presented.

  9. Effect of Problem Based Learning Scenario on Knowledge of Third Class Students About Childhood Poisoning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nazan Karaoğlu

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: It is stated that students cannot carry their knowledge on basic medical sciences that they gained with classical education to clinical classes and clinical practice and problem based learning (PBL can compensate this drawback. It was aimed to evaluate the effect of PBL scenario written on this topic on level of knowledge about childhood poisoning of third class students who completed the most of theoretical pharmacology education.Materials and Method: A questionnaire form prepared by researchers was applied to randomly chosen PBL groups without writing names and on the basis of voluntariness before and after a case of childhood poisoning which was applied as the second PBL scenario in the second midterm of 2009-2010 academic years. Numbers, percentages, chi-square and student’s t-test were used for evaluation of the questionnaire form comprised of demographic data, open-closed ended questions for measuring attitudes and level of knowledge against case of poisoning and statements as making a priority ranking.Results: In the study group, 89 students took part in pre-test and 96 students took part in post-test. In the answers to the list including the substances that are the most common causes of admission according to data of Refik Saydam National Poison Center (e.g. lotion, bath foam, cosmetics, water color and calamine lotions, the substances that the students stated to be toxic in pre-test were answered correctly in the post-test (p<0.05. Number of correct answers increased significantly for knowledge about commonly used drugs in clinical practice like anti-depressants, calcium canal blockers, oral antidiabetics that were marked as non-toxic by the students although they are toxic (p<0.05. While mean knowledge score for these 40 items was 17.52±5.82 in pre-test, it increased to 27.89±8.79 in post-test (p<0.001.Conclusion: Results of this study indicate that PBL scenario applied to the students who learned pharmacology

  10. Magnetohydrodynamic modes analysis and control of Fusion Advanced Studies Torus high-current scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    One of the main FAST (Fusion Advanced Studies Torus) goals is to have a flexible experiment capable to test tools and scenarios for safe and reliable tokamak operation, in order to support ITER and help the final DEMO design. In particular, in this paper, we focus on operation close to a possible border of stability related to low-q operation. To this purpose, a new FAST scenario has then been designed at Ip = 10 MA, BT = 8.5 T, q95 ≈ 2.3. Transport simulations, carried out by using the code JETTO and the first principle transport model GLF23, indicate that, under these conditions, FAST could achieve an equivalent Q ≈ 3.5. FAST will be equipped with a set of internal active coils for feedback control, which will produce magnetic perturbation with toroidal number n = 1 or n = 2. Magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) mode analysis and feedback control simulations performed with the codes MARS, MARS-F, CarMa (both assuming the presence of a perfect conductive wall and using the exact 3D resistive wall structure) show the possibility of the FAST conductive structures to stabilize n = 1 ideal modes. This leaves therefore room for active mitigation of the resistive mode (down to a characteristic time of 1 ms) for safety purposes, i.e., to avoid dangerous MHD-driven plasma disruption, when working close to the machine limits and magnetic and kinetic energy density not far from reactor values

  11. The effectiveness of energy service demand reduction: A scenario analysis of global climate change mitigation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A reduction of energy service demand is a climate mitigation option, but its effectiveness has never been quantified. We quantify the effectiveness of energy service demand reduction in the building, transport, and industry sectors using the Asia-Pacific Integrated Assessment/Computable General Equilibrium (AIM/CGE) model for the period 2015–2050 under various scenarios. There were two major findings. First, a 25% energy service demand reduction in the building, transport, and basic material industry sectors would reduce the GDP loss induced by climate mitigation from 4.0% to 3.0% and from 1.2% to 0.7% in 2050 under the 450 ppm and 550 ppm CO2 equivalent concentration stabilization scenarios, respectively. Second, the effectiveness of a reduction in the building sector's energy service demand would be higher than those of the other sectors at the same rate of the energy service demand reduction. Furthermore, we also conducted a sensitivity analysis of different socioeconomic conditions, and the climate mitigation target was found to be a key determinant of the effectiveness of energy service demand reduction measures. Therefore, more certain climate mitigation targets would be useful for the decision makers who design energy service demand reduction measures. - Highlights: • The effectiveness of a reduction in energy service demand is quantified. • A 25% reduction in energy service demand would be equivalent to 1% of GDP in 2050. • Stringent mitigation increases the effectiveness of energy service demand reduction. • Effectiveness of a reduction in energy demand service is higher in the building sector

  12. Ambient Intelligence: From Scenario Analysis towards a Bottom-Up Design

    OpenAIRE

    Olaru, Andrei; El Fallah Seghrouchni, Amal; Florea, Adina Magda

    2010-01-01

    In the domain of Ambient Intelligence, research goals are many times driven by scenarios that help envisage a world enriched by ambient, pervasive, intelligent services. So far, scenarios have most times presented the perception that one person has upon the system, with few details on how the system should work in the background in order to deal with realistic requirements. In this paper, starting from scenarios presented in previous research, we identify features and requirements for AmI sys...

  13. Assessing spatial uncertainties of land allocation using the scenario approach and sensitivity analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Hatna, E.; Verburg, P.H.; Tabeau, A.A.

    2010-01-01

    The paper assess uncertainty of future spatial allocation of agricultural land in Europe. To assess the possible future development of agricultural production and land for the period 2000 – 2030, two contrasting scenarios are constructed. The scenarios storylines lead to different measurable assumptions concerning scenario specific drivers (variables) and parameters. Many of them are estimations and thus include a certain level of uncertainty regarding their true values. This leads to uncerta...

  14. Developing courses with HoloRena, a framework for scenario- and game based e-learning environments

    CERN Document Server

    Juracz, Laszlo

    2010-01-01

    However utilizing rich, interactive solutions can make learning more effective and attractive, scenario- and game-based educational resources on the web are not widely used. Creating these applications is a complex, expensive and challenging process. Development frameworks and authoring tools hardly support reusable components, teamwork and learning management system-independent courseware architecture. In this article we initiate the concept of a low-level, thick-client solution addressing these problems. With some example applications we try to demonstrate, how a framework, based on this concept can be useful for developing scenario- and game-based e-learning environments.

  15. The role of animated pedagogical agents in scenario-based language e-learning: a case-study

    OpenAIRE

    Reategui, Eliseo; Polonia, Eunice; Roland, Letícia

    2007-01-01

    Scenario-based language e-learning (SBeL) is focused on contextual learning, since it uses authentic activities that can improve communication skills. This paper reports a case-study that proposes the use of animated pedagogical agents (APAs) in a Brazilian Portuguese web-based course built under a mix of task- and scenario-based approaches. Its main purpose is to discuss how APAs can be used to improve students' communicative skills, cultural awareness and level of interaction with course's ...

  16. A Risk Metric Assessment of Scenario-Based Market Risk Measures for Volatility and Risk Estimation: Evidence from Emerging Markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sitima Innocent

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The study evaluated the sensitivity of the Value- at- Risk (VaR and Expected Shortfalls (ES with respect to portfolio allocation in emerging markets with an index portfolio of a developed market. This study utilised different models for VaR and ES techniques using various scenario-based models such as Covariance Methods, Historical Simulation and the GARCH (1, 1 for the predictive ability of these models in both relatively stable market conditions and extreme market conditions. The results showed that Expected Shortfall has less risk tolerance than VaR based on the same scenario-based market risk measures

  17. Wind power in Finland up to the year 2025--'soft' scenarios based on expert views

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In this article we present a method of constructing 'soft' scenarios applied to the wind power development in Finland up to the year 2025. We asked 14 experts to describe probable and preferable futures using a quantitative questionnaire and qualitative interviews. Wind power production grows in all scenarios but there were differences in the order of magnitude of 10. The growth rate of electricity consumption slows down in all scenarios. Qualitative arguments varied even within clusters, with wind power policy emerging as the main dividing factor. The differences revealed diverse values and political objectives, as well as great uncertainties in assumptions about future developments. These influence wind power policy and were also believed to have contributed to the slow development of wind power in Finland. Re-thinking of the Finnish wind power policy is recommended. The 'soft' scenario method is considered valuable in finding diverse views, constructing transparent scenarios and assisting energy policy making

  18. Low carbon society scenario analysis of transport sector of an emerging economy—The AIM/Enduse modelling approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The transport sector of a country is the backbone driving the economy forward. Thailand’s land transport sector is modelled using the AIM/Enduse, which is a recursive dynamic optimization model, based on bottom-up modelling principle. The travel demand is divided into two major categories which are passenger travel and freight travel. The objective of this paper is to analyse the mitigation possible through low carbon society (LCS) measures and emission tax (ET). Two scenario clusters are devised along with the BAU case. The LCS scenario cluster has three designed scenarios which are LCS-L, LCS-M and LCS-H. The emission tax (ET) cluster has four scenarios, where the taxes of 50, 100, 200 and 500 USD/t-CO2 are implemented. Along with this the marginal abatement costs (MAC) of the counter-measures (CMs) and the co-benefits in terms of energy security, productivity and air pollutant mitigation are also assessed. Results show that LCS scenarios are possible of mitigating up to 1230 Mt-CO2 cumulatively, from 2010 to 2050. In terms of MACs, new vehicles play a pivotal role, along with hybrid vehicles. The Average Abatement Cost (AAC) assessment shows that the AAC of LCS-H scenario is in the order of 100 USD/t-CO2. All the LCS and ET scenarios show an enhancement in energy security and also a threefold increase in productivity. There is distinct mitigation in terms of air pollutants from the transport sector as well. -- Highlights: •Thailand transport sector has been modelled using AIM/Enduse model. •Potential cumulative mitigation of CO2 during 2010–2050 is approximately 30% when compared the BAU scenario. •Abatement cost curves show that various counter measures are practical in the transport sector. •Energy security is enhanced due to CO2 mitigation in the LCS scenario

  19. Modeling post-fire sediment yield based on two burn scenarios at the Sooke Lake Reservoir, BC, Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dobre, Mariana; Elliot, William J.; Brooks, Erin S.; Smith, Tim

    2016-04-01

    Wildfires can have major adverse effects on municipal water sources. Local governments need methods to evaluate fire risk and to develop mitigation procedures. The Sooke Lake Reservoir is the primary source of water for the city of Victoria, BC and the concern is that sediment delivered from upland burned areas could have a detrimental impact on the reservoir and the water supply. We conducted a sediment delivery modeling pilot study on a portion of the Sooke Lake Reservoir (specifically, the Trestle Creek Management Unit (TCMU)) to evaluate the potential impacts of wildfire on sediment delivery from hillslopes and sub-catchments. We used a process-based hydrologic and soil erosion model called Water Erosion Prediction Project geospatial interface, GeoWEPP, to predict the sediment delivery from specific return period design storms for two burn severity scenarios: real (low-intensity burn severity) and worst (high-intensity burn severity) case scenarios. The GeoWEPP model allows users to simulate streamflow and erosion from hillslope polygons within a watershed. The model requires information on the topographic, soil and vegetative characteristics for each hillslope and a weather file. WEPP default values and several assumptions were necessary to apply the model where data were missing. Based on a 10-m DEM we delineated 16 watersheds within the TCMU area. A long term 100-year daily climate file was generated for this analysis using the CLIGEN model based on the historical observations recorded at Concrete, WA in United States, and adjusted for observed monthly precipitation observed in the Sooke Basin. We ran 100-year simulations and calculated yearly and event-based return periods (for 2, 5, 10, 20, 25, and 50 years) for each of the 16 watersheds. Overall, WEPP simulations indicate that the storms that are most likely to produce the greatest runoff and sediment load in these coastal, maritime climates with relatively low rainfall intensities are likely to occur in

  20. Physics analysis on the NRU core for an accident scenario of a loop pressure tube crack

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Nuclear Research Universal (NRU) reactor loops are high temperature, high pressure test facilities, designed for power reactor fuel development and materials testing within the core of the NRU reactor. The loops allow test material to be subject to neutron flux, temperature and pressure conditions typical of a power reactor. This paper describes the physics analysis on the NRU core for an accident scenario of a loop pressure tube crack with a concurrent liner tube failure. After the crack has occurred, thermal-hydraulic analysis predicts the formation of a steam bubble of 50 cm radius in the D2O moderator/coolant around the loop test section. The steam displaces the D2O moderator and has a negative reactivity effect. This negative reactivity effect is large enough to overcome the positive loop void reactivity such that the reactor is shut down and reactor safety is not compromised. The paper also describes the sensitivity of steam bubble densities on the reactivity effect and presents results for subsequent reductions of fluxes and channel powers around the loop site. (author)

  1. Physics analysis on the NRU core for an accident scenario of a loop pressure tube crack

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Leung, T.C., E-mail: leungt@aecl.ca [Atomic Energy of Canada Limited, Chalk River, Ontario (Canada)

    2010-07-01

    The Nuclear Research Universal (NRU) reactor loops are high temperature, high pressure test facilities, designed for power reactor fuel development and materials testing within the core of the NRU reactor. The loops allow test material to be subject to neutron flux, temperature and pressure conditions typical of a power reactor. This paper describes the physics analysis on the NRU core for an accident scenario of a loop pressure tube crack with a concurrent liner tube failure. After the crack has occurred, thermal-hydraulic analysis predicts the formation of a steam bubble of 50 cm radius in the D{sub 2}O moderator/coolant around the loop test section. The steam displaces the D{sub 2}O moderator and has a negative reactivity effect. This negative reactivity effect is large enough to overcome the positive loop void reactivity such that the reactor is shut down and reactor safety is not compromised. The paper also describes the sensitivity of steam bubble densities on the reactivity effect and presents results for subsequent reductions of fluxes and channel powers around the loop site. (author)

  2. Algal-based CO2 Sequestration Technology and Global Scenario of Carbon Credit Market: A Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shailendra Kumar Singh

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this paper is to provide an overview of the global and national scenario of Carbon credit. This paper will also discuss the advantages of the algae-based carbon capture technology in growing carbon credit market. Carbon Dioxide (CO2, the most important greenhouse gas produced by combustion of fuels, has become a cause of global panic as its concentration in the Earth’s atmosphere has been rising alarmingly. However, it is now turning into a product that helps people, countries, consultants, traders, corporations and even farmers earn billion of rupees. A carbon credit is a generic term for any tradable certificate or permit representing the right to emit one tone of CO2 or CO2 equivalent (CO2-e. Businesses can exchange, buy or sell carbon credits in the international markets at the prevailing market price. India and China are likely to emerge as biggest seller and Europe is going to be biggest buyers of carbon credits. Using algae for reduction the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere is known as algae-based carbon capture technology. This new technology has attracted companies that need inexpensive CO2 sequestration solutions. Algae farming emerge as the best CO2 sequestration technique in comparison with other methods.

  3. Event-based knowledge elicitation of operating room management decision-making using scenarios adapted from information systems data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Epstein Richard H

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background No systematic process has previously been described for a needs assessment that identifies the operating room (OR management decisions made by the anesthesiologists and nurse managers at a facility that do not maximize the efficiency of use of OR time. We evaluated whether event-based knowledge elicitation can be used practically for rapid assessment of OR management decision-making at facilities, whether scenarios can be adapted automatically from information systems data, and the usefulness of the approach. Methods A process of event-based knowledge elicitation was developed to assess OR management decision-making that may reduce the efficiency of use of OR time. Hypothetical scenarios addressing every OR management decision influencing OR efficiency were created from published examples. Scenarios are adapted, so that cues about conditions are accurate and appropriate for each facility (e.g., if OR 1 is used as an example in a scenario, the listed procedure is a type of procedure performed at the facility in OR 1. Adaptation is performed automatically using the facility's OR information system or anesthesia information management system (AIMS data for most scenarios (43 of 45. Performing the needs assessment takes approximately 1 hour of local managers' time while they decide if their decisions are consistent with the described scenarios. A table of contents of the indexed scenarios is created automatically, providing a simple version of problem solving using case-based reasoning. For example, a new OR manager wanting to know the best way to decide whether to move a case can look in the chapter on "Moving Cases on the Day of Surgery" to find a scenario that describes the situation being encountered. Results Scenarios have been adapted and used at 22 hospitals. Few changes in decisions were needed to increase the efficiency of use of OR time. The few changes were heterogeneous among hospitals, showing the usefulness of

  4. Analysis of Data Interruption in an LTE Highway Scenario with Dual Connectivity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gimenez, Lucas Chavarria; Michaelsen, Per-Henrik; Pedersen, Klaus I.

    evaluated by means of system level simulations for a high-speed scenario. The scenario models a highway covered by a macro layer and an ultra dense network of small cells distributed on both sides of the road. Results reveal that for single connectivity, and due to the large amount of handovers, terminals...

  5. Insights into future air quality: Analysis of future emissions scenarios using the MARKAL model

    Science.gov (United States)

    This presentation will provide an update on the development and evaluation of four Air Quality Futures (AQF) scenarios. These scenarios represent widely different assumptions regarding the evolution of the U.S. energy system over the next 40 years. The primary differences between...

  6. Economic and environmental evaluation of three goal-vision based scenarios for organic dairy farming in Denmark.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oudshoorn, F.W.; Sorensen, C.A.G.; Boer, de I.J.M.

    2011-01-01

    The objective of this study was to explore the sustainability of future organic dairy farming systems in Denmark, by evaluating the economic and environmental consequences of three scenarios at the farm level based on different visions of future sustainability leading to different farm-based goals.

  7. Energy and emissions benefits of renewable energy derived from municipal solid waste: Analysis of a low carbon scenario in Malaysia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Highlights: • Feasibility study on the energy and GHG emission reduction for WtE strategies for municipal solid waste (MSW) in Malaysia. • Greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions from WtE strategies analysed using IPCC guideline. • Scenario analysis by comparison of different WtE strategies. • Impact of moisture content of MSW towards energy potential and GHG emission reduction. - Abstract: Ineffective waste management that involves dumping of waste in landfills may degrade valuable land resources and emit methane gas (CH4), a more potent greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide (CO2). The incineration of waste also emits polluted chemicals such as dioxin and particle. Therefore, from a solid waste management perspective, both landfilling and incineration practices pose challenges to the development of a green and sustainable future. Waste-to-energy (WtE) has become a promising strategy catering to these issues because the utilisation of waste reduces the amount of landfilled waste (overcoming land resource issues) while increasing renewable energy production. The goal of this paper is to evaluate the energy and carbon reduction potential in Malaysia for various WtE strategies for municipal solid waste (MSW). The material properties of the MSW, its energy conversion potential and subsequent greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions are analysed based on the chemical compositions and biogenic carbon fractions of the waste. The GHG emission reduction potential is also calculated by considering fossil fuel displacement and CH4 avoidance from landfilling. In this paper, five different scenarios are analysed with results indicating a integration of landfill gas (LFG) recovery systems and waste incinerator as the major and minor WtE strategies shows the highest economical benefit with optimal GHG mitigation and energy potential. Sensitivity analysis on the effect of moisture content of MSW towards energy potential and GHG emissions are performed. These evaluations of WtE strategies

  8. Comparative analysis of hourly and dynamic power balancing models for validating future energy scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pillai, Jayakrishnan R.; Heussen, Kai; Østergaard, Poul Alberg

    2011-01-01

    , the model is verified on the basis of the existing energy mix on Bornholm as an islanded energy system. Future energy scenarios for the year 2030 are analysed to study a feasible technology mix for a higher share of wind power. Finally, the results of the hourly simulations are compared to dynamic......Energy system analyses on the basis of fast and simple tools have proven particularly useful for interdisciplinary planning projects with frequent iterations and re-evaluation of alternative scenarios. As such, the tool “EnergyPLAN” is used for hourly balanced and spatially aggregate annual...... analyses of energy scenarios. For the relatively fast dynamics of electrical energy systems, additional requirements need to be formulated to justify the technical feasibility of the respective scenario. In this article, the comparison is made of energy scenarios for the Danish island of Bornholm. First...

  9. Shale gas technology innovation rate impact on economic Base Case – Scenario model benchmarks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Highlights: • Cash flow models control which technology is affordable in emerging shale gas plays. • Impact of technology innovation on IRR can be as important as wellhead price hikes. • Cash flow models are useful for technology decisions that make shale gas plays economic. • The economic gap can be closed by appropriate technology innovation. - Abstract: Low gas wellhead prices in North America have put its shale gas industry under high competitive pressure. Rapid technology innovation can help companies to improve the economic performance of shale gas fields. Cash flow models are paramount for setting effective production and technology innovation targets to achieve positive returns on investment in all global shale gas plays. Future cash flow of a well (or cluster of wells) may either improve further or deteriorate, depending on: (1) the regional volatility in gas prices at the wellhead – which must pay for the gas resource extraction, and (2) the cost and effectiveness of the well technology used. Gas price is an externality and cannot be controlled by individual companies, but well technology cost can be reduced while improving production output. We assume two plausible scenarios for well technology innovation and model the return on investment while checking against sensitivity to gas price volatility. It appears well technology innovation – if paced fast enough – can fully redeem the negative impact of gas price decline on shale well profits, and the required rates are quantified in our sensitivity analysis

  10. Automation of block assignment planning using a diagram-based scenario modeling method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hwang In Hyuck

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Most shipbuilding scheduling research so far has focused on the load level on the dock plan. This is be¬cause the dock is the least extendable resource in shipyards, and its overloading is difficult to resolve. However, once dock scheduling is completed, making a plan that makes the best use of the rest of the resources in the shipyard to minimize any additional cost is also important. Block assignment planning is one of the midterm planning tasks; it assigns a block to the facility (factory/shop or surface plate that will actually manufacture the block according to the block characteristics and current situation of the facility. It is one of the most heavily loaded midterm planning tasks and is carried out manu¬ally by experienced workers. In this study, a method of representing the block assignment rules using a diagram was su¬ggested through analysis of the existing manual process. A block allocation program was developed which automated the block assignment process according to the rules represented by the diagram. The planning scenario was validated through a case study that compared the manual assignment and two automated block assignment results.

  11. The Colombian biofuel supply chains: The assessment of current and promising scenarios based on environmental goals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Colombian biofuels are used in the transportation sector at low-percentage blends of biofuel–fossil fuel (until 8:92, volume basis). Since energy policies encourage the increment of Bioenergy percentage in energy matrix, the biofuels production and use should be increased during the next years. In this work, the environmental assessment of several scenarios involving current and promising biofuel supply chains was made. The aim of this paper was the assessment of several possible alternatives to increase the biofuels production from current agricultural supply chains. Sugarcane, cassava, oil-palm and jatropha were considered as feedstocks for the analysis. The environmental assessment included calculations of the greenhouse gas emissions and the potential environmental impacts, using the life cycle assessment approach. The results indicated that the current biofuels production mitigates environmental impacts in comparison to fossil fuels production and use. Additionally, biofuels production using promising feedstocks could be environmentally competitive if the production processes are improved. - Highlights: • The environmental assessment of current and promising Colombian biofuels was made. • Current Colombian biofuel supply chains show 5–8% of GHG emissions savings. • Jatropha and cassava are potential feedstocks for Colombian biofuels production. • Suitable biofuels in Colombia can be achieved by feedstock integration

  12. Four Scenarios for Europe. Based on UNEP's third Global Environment Outlook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The third Global Environment Outlook (GEO-3) was published on the eve of the Johannesburg summit (autumn 2002). GEO-3 looked back thirty years and forward thirty years. A set of what-if scenarios was used to explore the ways our society can advance, including implications for environmental and social goals. Characteristically, GEO-3 examines in a relatively deep fashion how its global scenarios can be interpreted in the context of each of the world's regions. This brochure presents the pan-European elaboration of the four GEO-3 scenarios. It focusses on the scenarios proper and their impacts in environmental terms. The scenarios are: The Markets First scenario envisages a world in which market-driven developments converge on the currently prevailing values and expectations in industrialized countries; In a Policy First world, strong actions are undertaken by governments in an attempt to achieve specific social and environmental goals; The Security First scenario assumes a world full of large disparities, where inequality and conflict, brought about by socio-economic and environmental stresses, prevail: and Sustainability First pictures a world in which a new development paradigm emerges in response to the challenge of sustainability supported by new, more equitable values and institutions. The second section describes 'the pan-European tale of the four futures' in a predominantly qualitative manner. Section 3 presents a regionally differentiated examination of the environmental implications of the scenarios. Details on input material, assumptions and methodologies applied, and actual results, can be found in Chapter 4 of GEO-3 'Outlook 2002-32' and in the Technical Background Report on GEO-3 Scenario Work

  13. Projecting the environmental profile of Singapore's landfill activities: Comparisons of present and future scenarios based on LCA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khoo, Hsien H; Tan, Lester L Z; Tan, Reginald B H

    2012-05-01

    This article aims to generate the environmental profile of Singapore's Semakau landfill by comparing three different operational options associated with the life cycle stages of landfilling activities, against a 'business as usual' scenario. Before life cycle assessment or LCA is used to quantify the potential impacts from landfilling activities, an attempt to incorporate localized and empirical information into the amounts of ash and MSW sent to the landfill was made. A linear regression representation of the relationship between the mass of waste disposed and the mass of incineration ash generated was modeled from waste statistics between years 2004 and 2009. Next, the mass of individual MSW components was projected from 2010 to 2030. The LCA results highlighted that in a 'business as usual' scenario the normalized total impacts of global warming, acidification and human toxicity increased by about 2% annually from 2011 to 2030. By replacing the 8000-tonne barge with a 10000-tonne coastal bulk carrier or freighter (in scenario 2) a grand total reduction of 48% of both global warming potential and acidification can be realized by year 2030. Scenario 3 explored the importance of having a Waste Water Treatment Plant in place to reduce human toxicity levels - however, the overall long-term benefits were not as significant as scenario 2. It is shown in scenario 4 that the option of increased recycling championed over all other three scenarios in the long run, resulting in a total 58% reduction in year 2030 for the total normalized results. A separate comparison of scenarios 1-4 is also carried out for energy utilization and land use in terms of volume of waste occupied. Along with the predicted reductions in environmental burdens, an additional bonus is found in the expanded lifespan of Semakau landfill from year 2032 (base case) to year 2039. Model limitations and suggestions for improvements were also discussed. PMID:22257698

  14. Tsunami hazard for the city of Catania, eastern Sicily, Italy, assessed by means of Worst-case Credible Tsunami Scenario Analysis (WCTSA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Tonini

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Eastern Sicily is one of the coastal areas most exposed to earthquakes and tsunamis in Italy. The city of Catania that developed between the eastern base of Etna volcano and the Ionian Sea is, together with the neighbour coastal belt, under the strong menace of tsunamis. This paper addresses the estimation of the tsunami hazard for the city of Catania by using the technique of the Worst-case Credible Tsunami Scenario Analysis (WCTSA and is focused on a target area including the Catania harbour and the beach called La Plaia where many human activities develop and many important structures are present. The aim of the work is to provide a detailed tsunami hazard analysis, firstly by building scenarios that are proposed on the basis of tectonic considerations and of the largest historical events that hit the city in the past, and then by combining all the information deriving from single scenarios into a unique aggregated scenario that can be viewed as the worst virtual scenario. Scenarios have been calculated by means of numerical simulations on computational grids of different resolutions, passing from 3 km on a regional scale to 40 m in the target area. La Plaia beach results to be the area most exposed to tsunami inundation, with inland penetration up to hundreds of meters. The harbour turns out to be more exposed to tsunami waves with low frequencies: in particular, it is found that the major contribution to the hazard in the harbour is due to a tsunami from a remote source, which propagates with much longer periods than tsunamis from local sources. This work has been performed in the framework of the EU-funded project SCHEMA.

  15. MOSES - A modelling tool for the analysis of scenarios of the European electricity supply system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weitemeyer, S.; Feck, T.; Agert, C.

    2012-10-01

    Recent studies have shown that a transition of the current power supply system in Europe to a system almost entirely based on fluctuating Renewable Energy Sources (RES) by mid-century is possible. However, most of these scenarios require a significant amount of back-up power capacities to ensure the security of electricity supply. This would imply high additional investments and operating costs. Hence, alternative options should be investigated first. Here we present a first outlook of our simulation model MOSES which will be able to analyse different target states of the European electricity system in 2050. In this model long-term meteorological data series are used to optimise the capacity mix of RES in Europe. One of the main elements of our tool is a simplified electricity network. In addition, alternative options for reduction of additional back-up power like the expansion of the transmission grid, the use of demand-side management and/or the installation of over-capacities will be implemented. The results will be used to provide scientifically proven recommendations to policy makers for a reliable energy supply system in Europe based on Renewable Energy Sources.

  16. TRU transmutation studies for phase-out scenarios based on fast neutron ADS systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper present the first CIEMAT studies of scenarios in which the electric energy production from nuclear fission is progressively reduced and transmutation technologies are used to reduce the left over TRU inventory and its associated radiotoxicity. The motivations and differences from the more frequent equilibrium scenarios are presented. A scheme with three stages is proposed. and briefly discussed, for the application of transmutation technologies to phase-out scenarios and some results are presented for an orientative example case, obtaining simple but relevant general conclusions. (authors)

  17. The net employment impact of energy transition in France: An input-output analysis of the 'negaWatt' scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    We study the impact on employment in France of the implementation of the energy transition scenario built by negaWatt (2011), which provides a massive development of energy savings (through measures of sufficiency and energy efficiency) and renewable energy between 2012 and 2050. Compared to 2010, this scenario results in a halving of CO2 emissions from energy sources in France in 2030 and a division by 16 in 2050, without capture and storage of CO2, without implementation of new nuclear power plant and closing existing plants after 40 years of operation at maximum. We calculate the effect on employment of the implementation of this scenario compared to a baseline scenario that extends recent developments and considers the policies already decided. The method used to calculate the effect on employment of each scenario is to calculate the cost of the main technical and organizational options used, to allocate these costs among the 118 branches of the French economy and multiply these costs by the employment content of each branch. The latter is estimated by input-output analysis, which enables the recording of jobs generated by the production of all inputs. One of two scenarios being more expensive than the other, one must take into account the negative effect on employment of funding such costs. For this, it is assumed that this additional cost is borne by households and that they decrease their consumption accordingly by the same amount. This avoids biasing the results in favour of the most expensive scenario. The implementation of negaWatt scenario leads to a positive effect on employment, on the order of 240 000 full-time equivalent jobs in 2020 and 630,000 in 2030. We study the sensitivity of results to assumptions on prices of imported energy, the evolution of labour productivity, the distribution of costs between households and governments, and finally the consumption-savings decision. The effect on employment is largely positive in all cases. (author)

  18. Scenario-based prediction of Li-ion batteries fire-induced toxicity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lecocq, Amandine; Eshetu, Gebrekidan Gebresilassie; Grugeon, Sylvie; Martin, Nelly; Laruelle, Stephane; Marlair, Guy

    2016-06-01

    The development of high energy Li-ion batteries with improved durability and increased safety mostly relies on the use of newly developed electrolytes. A detailed appraisal of fire-induced thermal and chemical threats on LiPF6- and LiFSI-based electrolytes by means of the so-called "fire propagation apparatus" had highlighted that the salt anion was responsible for the emission of a non negligible content of irritant gas as HF (PF6-) or HF and SO2 (FSI-). A more thorough comparative investigation of the toxicity threat in the case of larger-size 0.4 kWh Li-ion modules was thus undertaken. A modeling approach that consists in extrapolating the experimental data obtained from 1.3Ah LiFePO4/graphite pouch cells under fire conditions and in using the state-of-the-art fire safety international standards for the evaluation of fire toxicity was applied under two different real-scale simulating scenarios. The obtained results reveal that critical thresholds are highly dependent on the nature of the salt, LiPF6 or LiFSI, and on the cells state of charge. Hence, this approach can help define appropriate fire safety engineering measures for a given technology (different chemistry) or application (fully charged backup batteries or batteries subjected to deep discharge).

  19. Improvement of the PSA model using a best-estimate thermal-hydraulic analysis of LOCA scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This study was performed to propose both new success criterion and heading of the event tree by using best-estimate analysis of each LOCA scenario, aiming at the improvement of the PSA models. The MARS code was used for the thermal-hydraulic analysis of LOCA and the Ulchin units 3 and 4 were selected as a reference plant in this study. This study was performed to improve the PSA model of three LOCA scenarios by using best-estimate thermal-hydraulic analysis. The LOCA calculations with various configurations of the safety systems and break sizes were performed. Using the results, we proposed both new success criterion and heading of the small- and middle-break LOCA scenario. The small-break LOCA will be analyzed later in terms of operator actions to depressurize the RCS. The results of this analysis may contribute to improve the PSA model of LOCA. In the probabilistic safety analysis (PSA) of Korean Standard Nuclear Power Plant (KSNP), loss-of-coolant accidents (LOCA) are classified into three scenarios by the break size, such as large-, middle-, and small-break LOCA. The specific break sizes were adopted to identify the boundaries of the three groups in the previous PSA model and the success criteria has been conservatively applied to each state of safety system in the event tree

  20. Portuguese industry and the EU trade emissions directive: development and analysis of CO2 emission scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In December 1997, the Kyoto Protocol was adopted, setting limits on the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of industrialized countries. The European Union agreed to reduce its emissions of GHG by 8% during the period 2008-2012 in comparison to their 1990 levels. Subsequently, in a scheme known as 'burden-sharing', Portugal was allowed to increase its emissions by 27% in the same period. Large industrial facilities are responsible for a significant share of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and are object of a European Directive (2003/87/EC) establishing the scheme for GHG emission allowance trading within the European Union, launched with the purpose of allowing the reduction of GHG emissions cost-effectively. According to the Directive, Member States shall develop a National Allocation Plan (NAP) stating the total quantity of allowances that each one intends to allocate and how it proposes to allocate them among the activities included in the trading scheme. In this work, an analysis of the Portuguese industry is performed, focused on the energy consumption and CO2 emissions levels in the period 1990-2001 and on the estimation of the two parameters for the period 2002-2012, considering different economic growth scenarios and investments on energy reduction technologies. Results show that all the analysed sectors present a significant growth in CO2 emissions, exceeding the limit established in the frame of the Kyoto Protocol, and that measures other than cost-effective energy technologies will have to be implemented

  1. Projecting avian response to linked changes in groundwater and riparian floodplain vegetation along a dryland river: A scenario analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arriana, Brand L.; Stromberg, J.C.; Goodrich, D.C.; Dixon, M.D.; Lansey, K.; Kang, D.; Brookshire, D.S.; Cerasale, D.J.

    2011-01-01

    Groundwater is a key driver of riparian condition on dryland rivers but is in high demand for municipal, industrial, and agricultural uses. Approaches are needed to guide decisions that balance human water needs while conserving riparian ecosystems. We developed a space-for-time substitution model that links groundwater change scenarios implemented within a Decision Support System (DSS) with proportions of floodplain vegetation types and abundances of breeding and migratory birds along the upper San Pedro River, AZ, USA. We investigated nine scenarios ranging from groundwater depletion to recharge. In groundwater decline scenarios, relative proportions of tall-canopied obligate phreatophytes (Populus/Salix, cottonwood/willow) on the floodplain progressively decline, and shrubbier species less dependent on permanent water sources (e.g. Tamarix spp., saltcedar) increase. These scenarios result in broad shifts in the composition of the breeding bird community, with canopy-nesting and water-obligate birds declining but midstory nesting birds increasing in abundance as groundwater declines. For the most extreme draw-down scenario where all reaches undergo groundwater declines, models project that only 10% of the upper San Pedro floodplain would be comprised of cottonwood/willow (73% saltcedar and 18% mesquite), and abundances of canopy-nesting, water-obligate, and spring migrant birds would decline 48%, 72%, and 40%, respectively. Groundwater recharge scenarios were associated with increases in canopy-nesting birds particularly given the extreme recharge scenario (all reaches regain shallow water tables and perennial streamflow). Model outputs serve to assess the sensitivity of biotic groups to potential changes in groundwater and thus to rank scenarios based on their expected ecological impacts. ?? 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  2. Conceiving Scenario-Based IS Support for Knowledge Synthesis: The Organization Architect

    OpenAIRE

    Kam Hou VAT

    2005-01-01

    This paper examines the idea of creating information systems (IS) support for knowledge work through the elaboration of typical organizational scenarios. Specifically, our research is driven by a belief that the design issues of IS support must be situated in the context of social processes in which, in a specific organizational scenario, a particular group of people can conceptualize their knowledge work and hence the purposeful action they wish to undertake. This provides the basis for asce...

  3. Supporting primary-level mathematics teachers’ collaboration in designing and using technology-based scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Misfeldt, Morten; Zacho, Lis

    2016-01-01

    GeoGebra and Google sites. Both teachers and pupils work with the concept of “game” as something they design, and furthermore, the pupils immerse themselves into the scenarios that the teachers create in a way similar to “playing a game.” We investigate teachers participation in collaborative...... that the notion of “game” can support collaborative scenario design is a viable way of introducing technology and open-ended projects to primary school teachers....

  4. Situated cognitive engineering : the requirements and design of directed scenario-based training

    OpenAIRE

    Peeters, M.; Bosch, K. van den; Meyer, J.J.C.; Neerincx, M. A.

    2011-01-01

    The development of adaptive virtual learning environments as an educative tool is promising. In this paper we use the situated cognitive engineering method to analyze the operational demands, theoretical foundations and technological opportunities for the design of a Director Agent (DA). A DA uses its knowledge about the virtual world, the trainee, the task domain, and the scenario to intervene in the course of events during the training scenario. The goal of these interventions is to achieve...

  5. Enhanced Adaptive Management: Integrating Decision Analysis, Scenario Analysis and Environmental Modeling for the Everglades

    OpenAIRE

    Convertino, Matteo; Christy M. Foran; Jeffrey M. Keisler; Scarlett, Lynn; LoSchiavo, Andy; Gregory A. Kiker; Linkov, Igor

    2013-01-01

    We propose to enhance existing adaptive management efforts with a decision-analytical approach that can guide the initial selection of robust restoration alternative plans and inform the need to adjust these alternatives in the course of action based on continuously acquired monitoring information and changing stakeholder values. We demonstrate an application of enhanced adaptive management for a wetland restoration case study inspired by the Florida Everglades restoration effort. We find tha...

  6. Are patient-centered care values as reflected in teaching scenarios really being taught when implemented by teaching faculty? A discourse analysis on an Indonesian medical school's curriculum

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claramita Mora

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background According to The Indonesian Medical Council, 2006, Indonesian competence-based medical curriculum should be oriented towards family medicine. We aimed to find out if the educational goal of patient-centered care within family medicine (comprehensive care and continuous care were adequately transferred from the expected curriculum to implemented curriculum and teaching process. Methods Discourse analysis was done by 3 general practitioners of scenarios and learning objectives of an Indonesian undergraduate medical curriculum. The coders categorized those sentences into two groups: met or unmet the educational goal of patient-centered care. Results Text analysis showed gaps in patient-centered care training between the scenarios and the learning objectives which were developed by both curriculum committee and the block planning groups and the way in which the material was taught. Most sentences in the scenarios were more relevant to patient-centered care while most sentences in the learning objectives were more inclined towards disease-perspectives. Conclusions There is currently a discrepancy between expected patient-centered care values in the scenario and instructional materials that are being used.

  7. Scenario analysis of climate change and tourism in Spain and other European regions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sanchez, A.M.

    2005-06-15

    The aim of the study is to determine the possible impact of climate change on the tourist industry in Spain, with an especial focus on coastal regions. This includes the identification of potential areas suffering a decrease in the tourist flows, as well as different regions that could see a benefit on increasing temperatures and more reliable weather predictions. To do so, a Tourism Climate Index will be used, studying the potentiality of an area for tourism considering different elements of the climate which are relevant for the tourism activities. Current and future climatological scenarios over the main tourist sites in Spain will be built. In addition, the study will include an evaluation of the context around Spain, including case studies in other 5 different countries and a global description for the rest of the continent. Chapter 2 focuses mainly on the tourist sector. The global importance of this activity, together with the international tourism flows, serves as introduction to a more detailed assessment of the significant role that Spain plays as a tourist destination. The complex interrelations between climate (change) and tourism are reviewed in chapter 3. First, a brief introduction about climate change and descriptions of major projections about future climate world wide. This description is further detailed for Spain. Additionally, the interactions between tourism and climate are described thoroughly. Chapter 4 discusses the concept of 'Tourist Comfort Index', addressing key issues such as factors included and weighting. This section gives also a brief overview of the analysis and the data that was needed in the elaboration of the thesis. The implementation of the index and the results for current climate and future climate is presented. After the data analysis, chapter 5 provides an in-depth discussion of the results and compares them with other studies. This chapter is followed by the conclusions and recommendations in chapter 6.

  8. Analysis of Spent Fuel Assembly Thermal Behaviors in Boil-off Accident Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Hye-Min; Chun, Tae-Hyun; Kim, Sun-Ki [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2014-10-15

    The spent fuel pool (SFP) accidents would occur due to many different postulated scenarios, for example a SBO (Station Black Out) at SFP storage or an attack from external factor. In this study, we focused on the SFP boil off accident and analyzed the thermal behaviors of spent fuels following this accident, using MELCOR 1.8.6. version. MELCOR, originally the severe accident code, has been developed to also be appropriate to the SFP accident. This paper provides the spent fuel heatup characteristics in terms of decay heat, water level and fuel arrangement. The SFP model is based on 17x17 PWR assembly designed by Westinghouse. Spent fuel coolability has been analyzed with single and 1x4 assembly MELCOR models in the case of boil-off accident. It was shown that the low powered spent fuel assembly could be more vulnerable in the partial loss of coolant inventory because of lack of steam cooling and more fuel being uncovered. In addition, it was found that minimum water level has to be maintained above half of assembly height so as not to experience fuel failure, which depends on decay heat power.

  9. Directions for lunar construction - A derivation of requirements from a construction scenario analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dias, William S.; Matijevic, Jacob R.; Venkataraman, Subramani T.; Smith, Jeffrey H.; Lindemann, Randel A.; Levin, Richard R.

    1992-01-01

    This paper provides an initial trade-off study among several lunar construction options available to the Space Exploration Initiative. The relative time effectiveness of Extra-Vehicular Activity (EVA), Intra-Vehicular Activity (IVA), and Earth-based remote control assembly and construction methods are studied. Also considered is whether there is any construction time savings to building roads in advance, or surveying the construction sites with orbiters or rovers in advance. The study was conducted by adding detail to a potentially real scenario - a nuclear power plant - and applying time multipliers for the various control options and terrain alternatives, provided by roboticists among the authors. The authors conclude that IVA is a faster construction method than either EVA or construction conducted remotely from Earth. Surveying proposed sites in advance, with orbiters and rovers, provides a significant time savings through adding to certainty, and therefore may be cost effective. Developing a heavy-lift launch capability and minimizing assembly and construction processes by landing large payloads is probably worthwhile to the degree possible, as construction activities would use a large amount of surface operations time.

  10. Multi-criteria analysis for the determination of the best WEEE management scenario in Cyprus

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Waste from electrical and electronic equipment (WEEE) constitutes one of the most complicated solid waste streams in terms of its composition, and, as a result, it is difficult to be effectively managed. In view of the environmental problems derived from WEEE management, many countries have established national legislation to improve the reuse, recycling and other forms of recovery of this waste stream so as to apply suitable management schemes. In this work, alternative systems are examined for the WEEE management in Cyprus. These systems are evaluated by developing and applying the Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) method PROMETHEE. In particular, through this MCDM method, 12 alternative management systems were compared and ranked according to their performance and efficiency. The obtained results show that the management schemes/systems based on partial disassembly are the most suitable for implementation in Cyprus. More specifically, the optimum scenario/system that can be implemented in Cyprus is that of partial disassembly and forwarding of recyclable materials to the native existing market and disposal of the residues at landfill sites

  11. Systemic analysis of production scenarios for bioethanol produced from ligno-cellulosic biomass [abstract

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ghysel, F.

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Defining alternatives for non-renewable energy sources constitutes a priority to the development of our societies. One of these alternatives is biofuels production starting from energy crops, agricultural wastes, forest products or wastes. In this context, a "second generation" biofuels production, aiming at utilizing the whole plant, including ligno-cellulosic (hemicelluloses, cellulose, lignin fractions (Ogier et al., 1999 that are not used for human food, would allow the reduction of the drawbacks of bioethanol production (Schoeling, 2007. However, numerous technical, economical, ethical and environmental questions are still pending. One of the aims of the BioEtha2 project, directed by the Walloon Agricultural Research Centre, is to define the position of bioethanol produced from ligno-cellulosic biomass among the different renewable energy alternatives that could be developed in Wallonia towards 2020. With this aim, and in order to answer the numerous questions in this field, the project aims at using tools and methods coming from the concept of "forecasting scenarios" (Sebillotte, 2002; Slegten et al., 2007; For-learn, 2008. This concept, based on a contemporary reality, aims to explore different possible scenarios for the future development of alternative sources of energy production. The principle is to evaluate, explore, possible futures of the studied problematic, through the establishment of possible evolution trajectories. We contribute to this prospective through a systemic approach (Vanloqueren, 2007 that allows lightening the existing interactions within the system "ligno-cellulosic biomass chain" without isolating it from its environment. We explain and sketch the two contexts needed to identify primary stakes. The global context includes inter-dependant and auto-regulating fields such as society, politics, technology and economy. These four fields influence each part of the "chain" with specific tools. However, the interest and

  12. Natural gas industry in Italy. Analysis, scenarios for european union regulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Natural gas represents an energy source in strong expansion in the last years, not only in Italy but in all european countries. The forecasting and scenarios show an increasing in demand of natural gas consumption

  13. A Systematic Approach to Explorative Scenario Analysis in Emergy Assessment with Emphasis on Resilience

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kamp, Andreas; Østergård, Hanne

    2016-01-01

    Fossil energy depletion (specifically peak oil) and climate change are imagined to profoundly affect human civilisation. This motivates assessment of resilience, a concept associated with the ability to persist and maintain function. Explorative scenarios may be used to cast light on what the......-site renewable inputs, (3) slowly renewable inputs, (4) direct labour and (5) indirect labour. We consider the existing EmA indicators of biophysical efficiency (the unit emergy value, UEV), the degree of dependence on free, renewable, natural flows of energy (%R) and the degree of dependence on local inputs...... systems that rely primarily on on-site renewable resources appear less sensitive to societal changes. The significance of labour inputs varies among scenarios, and a higher percentage of labour inputs leads to increasing UEV in a Green Tech scenario but lower UEV in more radical energy decent scenarios. A...

  14. Variability of tsunami inundation footprints considering stochastic scenarios based on a single rupture model: Application to the 2011 Tohoku earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goda, Katsuichiro; Yasuda, Tomohiro; Mori, Nobuhito; Mai, P. Martin

    2015-06-01

    The sensitivity and variability of spatial tsunami inundation footprints in coastal cities and towns due to a megathrust subduction earthquake in the Tohoku region of Japan are investigated by considering different fault geometry and slip distributions. Stochastic tsunami scenarios are generated based on the spectral analysis and synthesis method with regards to an inverted source model. To assess spatial inundation processes accurately, tsunami modeling is conducted using bathymetry and elevation data with 50 m grid resolutions. Using the developed methodology for assessing variability of tsunami hazard estimates, stochastic inundation depth maps can be generated for local coastal communities. These maps are important for improving disaster preparedness by understanding the consequences of different situations/conditions, and by communicating uncertainty associated with hazard predictions. The analysis indicates that the sensitivity of inundation areas to the geometrical parameters (i.e., top-edge depth, strike, and dip) depends on the tsunami source characteristics and the site location, and is therefore complex and highly nonlinear. The variability assessment of inundation footprints indicates significant influence of slip distributions. In particular, topographical features of the region, such as ria coast and near-shore plain, have major influence on the tsunami inundation footprints.

  15. Variability of tsunami inundation footprints considering stochastic scenarios based on a single rupture model: Application to the 2011 Tohoku earthquake

    KAUST Repository

    Goda, Katsuichiro

    2015-06-30

    The sensitivity and variability of spatial tsunami inundation footprints in coastal cities and towns due to a megathrust subduction earthquake in the Tohoku region of Japan are investigated by considering different fault geometry and slip distributions. Stochastic tsunami scenarios are generated based on the spectral analysis and synthesis method with regards to an inverted source model. To assess spatial inundation processes accurately, tsunami modeling is conducted using bathymetry and elevation data with 50 m grid resolutions. Using the developed methodology for assessing variability of tsunami hazard estimates, stochastic inundation depth maps can be generated for local coastal communities. These maps are important for improving disaster preparedness by understanding the consequences of different situations/conditions, and by communicating uncertainty associated with hazard predictions. The analysis indicates that the sensitivity of inundation areas to the geometrical parameters (i.e., top-edge depth, strike, and dip) depends on the tsunami source characteristics and the site location, and is therefore complex and highly nonlinear. The variability assessment of inundation footprints indicates significant influence of slip distributions. In particular, topographical features of the region, such as ria coast and near-shore plain, have major influence on the tsunami inundation footprints.

  16. Spatially explicit scenario analysis for reconciling agricultural expansion, forest protection, and carbon conservation in Indonesia

    OpenAIRE

    Koh, Lian Pin; Ghazoul, Jaboury

    2010-01-01

    Palm oil is the world's most important vegetable oil in terms of production quantity. Indonesia, the world's largest palm-oil producer, plans to double its production by 2020, with unclear implications for the other national priorities of food (rice) production, forest and biodiversity protection, and carbon conservation. We modeled the outcomes of alternative development scenarios and show that every single-priority scenario had substantial tradeoffs associated with other priorities. The exc...

  17. Analysis of scenario development methods and practice of high level radioactive waste geological disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The scenario development is the key step in HLW geological disposal. The features, events and processes (FEPs) should be first considered. The FEPs can be sorted and grouped to form scenario. It is very useful and have reference value for the developing the FEPs of HLW geological disposal in a conceptual and planning stage in China by introducing the FEPs established and sorted methods. (authors)

  18. Review on –Analysis of Solid Waste Management Scenarios in Bhopal City

    OpenAIRE

    Tapas Dasgupta

    2014-01-01

    Solid Waste Management (SWM) system in Bhopal has deteriorated recently to the point that only limited waste collection is undertaken in certain urban areas and disposal is largely to uncontrolled dump sites. In this study, the technical, economical, and environmental aspects of three SWM scenarios were investigated aiming to compare the scenarios and select the most appropriate one for implementation. Waste disposal into a sanitary landfill, waste transportation to ...

  19. Life-cycle analysis of the total Danish energy system. An assessment of the present Danish energy system and selected furture scenarios. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kuemmel, B.; Soerensen, B.

    1997-01-01

    The promise of life-cycle analysis (LCA) is to enable the incorporation of environmental and social impacts into decision-making processes. The challenge is to do it on the basis of the always incomplete and uncertain data available, in a way that is sufficiently transparent to avoid that the modeller introduces any particular bias into the decision process, by the way of selecting and treating the incomplete data. The life-cycle analysis of the currently existing system is to be seen as a reference, against which alternative solutions to the same problem is weighed. However, as it takes time to introduce new systems, the alternative scenarios are for a future situation, which is chosen as the middle of the 21st century. The reason for using a 30-50 year period is a reflection on the time needed for a smooth transition to an energy system based on sources different from the ones used today, with implied differences all the way through the conversion and end-use system. A scenario will only be selected if it has been identified and if there is social support for it, so construction of more exotic scenarios by the researcher would only be meaningful, if its advantages are so convincing that an interest can be created and the necessary social support be forthcoming. One may say that the energy scenarios based on renewable energy sources are in this category, as they were identified by a minority group (of scientists and other individuals) and successfully brought to the attention of the public debate during 1970ies. In any case it should be kept in mind, that no claim of having identified the optimum solution can be made after assessing a finite number of scenarios. (EG) 88 refs.

  20. Can scenario-planning support community-based natural resource management? Experiences from three countries in Latin America

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kerry A. Waylen

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Community-based natural resource management (CBNRM is a concept critical to managing social-ecological systems but whose implementation needs strengthening. Scenario planning is one approach that may offer benefits relevant to CBNRM but whose potential is not yet well understood. Therefore, we designed, trialed, and evaluated a scenario-planning method intended to support CBNRM in three cases, located in Colombia, Mexico, and Argentina. Implementing scenario planning was judged as worthwhile in all three cases, although aspects of it were challenging to facilitate. The benefits generated were relevant to strengthening CBNRM: encouraging the participation of local people and using their knowledge, enhanced consideration of and adaptation to future change, and supporting the development of systems thinking. Tracing exactly when and how these benefits arose was challenging, but two elements of the method seemed particularly useful. First, using a systematic approach to discuss how drivers of change may affect local social-ecological systems helped to foster systems thinking and identify connections between issues. Second, explicitly focusing on how to use and respond to scenarios helped identify specific practical activities, or "response options," that would support CBNRM despite the pressures of future change. Discussions about response options also highlighted the need for support by other actors, e.g., policy groups: this raised the question of when and how other actors and other sources of knowledge should be involved in scenario planning, so as to encourage their buy-in to actions identified by the process. We suggest that other CBNRM initiatives may benefit from adapting and applying scenario planning. However, these initiatives should be carefully monitored because further research is required to understand how and when scenario-planning methods may produce benefits, as well as their strengths and weaknesses versus other methods.

  1. Ethoprophos fate on soil-water interface and effects on non-target terrestrial and aquatic biota under Mediterranean crop-based scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leitão, Sara; Moreira-Santos, Matilde; Van den Brink, Paul J; Ribeiro, Rui; José Cerejeira, M; Sousa, José Paulo

    2014-05-01

    The present study aimed to assess the environmental fate of the insecticide and nematicide ethoprophos in the soil-water interface following the pesticide application in simulated maize and potato crops under Mediterranean agricultural conditions, particularly of irrigation. Focus was given to the soil-water transfer pathways (leaching and runoff), to the pesticide transport in soil between pesticide application (crop row) and non-application areas (between crop rows), as well as to toxic effects of the various matrices on terrestrial and aquatic biota. A semi-field methodology mimicking a "worst-case" ethoprophos application (twice the recommended dosage for maize and potato crops: 100% concentration v/v) in agricultural field situations was used, in order to mimic a possible misuse by the farmer under realistic conditions. A rainfall was simulated under a slope of 20° for both crop-based scenarios. Soil and water samples were collected for the analysis of pesticide residues. Ecotoxicity of soil and aquatic samples was assessed by performing lethal and sublethal bioassays with organisms from different trophic levels: the collembolan Folsomia candida, the earthworm Eisenia andrei and the cladoceran Daphnia magna. Although the majority of ethoprophos sorbed to the soil application area, pesticide concentrations were detected in all water matrices illustrating pesticide transfer pathways of water contamination between environmental compartments. Leaching to groundwater proved to be an important transfer pathway of ethoprophos under both crop-based scenarios, as it resulted in high pesticide concentration in leachates from Maize (130µgL(-1)) and Potato (630µgL(-1)) crop scenarios, respectively. Ethoprophos application at the Potato crop scenario caused more toxic effects on terrestrial and aquatic biota than at the Maize scenario at the recommended dosage and lower concentrations. In both crop-based scenarios, ethoprophos moved with the irrigation water flow to the

  2. Integrated Evaluation and Scenario Simulation for Forest Ecological Security of Beijing Based on System Dynamics Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fangzheng Li

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Forest Ecological Security (FES means coordinated development of forest ecosystems, social economies, and the forest environment. In this paper, we evaluate FES in Beijing under different designed scenarios using a dynamic systems model and find that first, the initial FES index value (in Scenario 0 increased to its highest level of 0.529 in 2012, but declined slightly to 0.485 by 2020. Second, in Scenarios 1–4, the FES index value reached 0.545, 0.516, 0.585 and 0.637 respectively in 2020, which was enhanced in varying degrees when compared with Scenario 0. The simulation shows the implementation of forest management policies, socioeconomic development and environmental management combine to affect the FES in Beijing. The FES could develop into a good state when the productivity of forest resources, the stability of forest environments and the orderly development of the social economy are carefully maintained (in Scenario 4. This research could provide decision-making in support of the overall improvement of forest conditions while promoting sustainable forestry in Beijing.

  3. Effects of fishing effort allocation scenarios on energy efficiency and profitability: an individual-based model applied to Danish fisheries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bastardie, Francois; Nielsen, J. Rasmus; Andersen, Bo Sølgaard;

    2010-01-01

    Global concerns about CO2 emissions, national CO2 quotas, and rising fuel prices are incentives for the commercial fishing fleet industry to change their fishing practices and reduce fuel consumption, which constitutes a significant part of fishing costs. Vessel-based fuel consumption, energy...... engine specifications, and fish and fuel prices. The outcomes of scenarios A and B indicate a trade-off between fuel savings and energy efficiency improvements when effort is displaced closer to the harbour compared to reductions in total landing amounts and profit. Scenario C indicates that historic...

  4. Conceptual design of Fusion Experimental Reactor (FER) based on an advanced scenario of plasma operation and control

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Fusion Experimental Reactor (FER) which is being developed at JAERI as a next-generation tokamak following JT-60 has the major purpose of realizing a self-ignited, long-burning DT plasma and demonstrating engineering feasibility. The paper emphasizes the advanced scenario of FER plasma operation and control and the advantage in engineering design made possible by the scenario. The FER concept is discussed, which is based on quasi-steady-state operation by a lower-hybrid-wave current drive or steady-state operation by three candidate radiofrequency waves, impurity control by a cold and dense divertor plasma and vertical position control of a highly elongated plasma. (author)

  5. Transient analysis of a hydrogen-desalination cogeneration nuclear power plant : accident scenarios within the hydrogen production plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The WHEN (Water-Hydrogen-Electricity Nuclear gas-cooled reactor) system is an integrated system based on a nuclear power plant coupled with desalination and hydrogen production. The WHEN system integrates the HELP (High-Economical Low-Pressure) IS (Iodine- Sulfur) cycle for hydrogen production and the CD (Capacitive Desalination) + MED (Multi Effect Distillation) Hybrid system for desalination on top of the HTGR (High-Temperature Gas-cooled Reactor), which generates electricity. The WHEN system can enhance energy utilization by as much as 70%, and it can be flexibly designed according to various user needs. When we operate this type of cogeneration nuclear power plant, the load balance of each system is critical for the continuous operation of the entire system. A set of transient scenarios was simulated using a system analysis code (the GAMMA code), which can take into account the flow path design of hydrogen production coupling, i.e., undercooling and overcooling transients that are initiated in the hydrogen production plant. From the results of a safety analysis, we confirmed that the undercooling and overcooling transients initiated in the IS cycle do not lead any serious safety problems on the WHEN system. (author)

  6. Regional Issue Identification and Assessment (RIIA): an analysis of the mid-range projection, Series C Scenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Honea, B.; Hillsman, E.

    1979-10-01

    The Department of Energy has hypothesized a number of alternate energy futures as part of its energy planning and analysis programs. How a proposed energy future called the Mid-Range Projection Series C Scenario would affect Federal Region VI (Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Texas, and New Mexico) is examined in this report. This scenario assumes a medium supply and a medium demand for fuel through 1990, and it incorporates the fuel-switching provisions of the Energy Supply and Environmental Coordination Act. The report portrays the major regional environmental, human health and safety, socioeconomic, and institutional effects that might result from the realization of the Series C Scenario. This discussion should serve as a basis for further assessments, as it identifies some issues of major concern for Region VI that must be addressed in more depth.

  7. Grid modeling, analysis and simulation of different scenarios for a smart low-voltage distribution grid

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mihet-Popa, Lucian; Han, Xue; Bindner, Henrik W.;

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents the modeling, analysis and simulation of a low-voltage distribution grid model based on the real data designed for evaluation of a future smart grid. The grid model is built measuring the distribution lines' length and considering the cable dimensions and lengths, the grid age...

  8. Low carbon and clean energy scenarios for India: Analysis of targets approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Low carbon energy technologies are of increasing importance to India for reducing emissions and diversifying its energy supply mix. Using GCAM, an integrated assessment model, this paper analyzes a targets approach for pushing solar, wind, and nuclear technologies in the Indian electricity generation sector from 2005 to 2095. Targets for these technologies have been constructed on the basis of Indian government documents, policy announcements, and expert opinions. Different targets have been set for the reference scenario and the carbon price scenario. In the reference scenario, wind and nuclear technologies exceed respective targets in the long run without any subsidy push, while solar energy requires subsidy push throughout the century in order to meet its high targets. In the short run, nuclear energy also requires significant subsidy, including a much higher initial subsidy relative to solar power, which is a result of its higher targets. Under a carbon price scenario, the carbon price drives the penetration of these technologies. Still, subsidy is required — especially in the short run when the carbon price is low. We also found that pushing solar, wind, and nuclear technologies leads to a decrease in share of CCS under the carbon price scenario and biomass under both the reference and carbon price scenarios. This is because low carbon technologies compete among themselves and substitute each other, thereby enhancing the need for subsidy or carbon price, highlighting that proposed targets are not set at efficient levels. In light of contemporary debate on external costs of nuclear energy, we also assess the sensitivity of the results to nuclear technology cost. We find that higher cost significantly decreases the share of nuclear power under both the reference and carbon price scenarios.

  9. Pervasive Learning System Based on a Scenario Model Integrating Web Service Retrieval and Orchestration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cuong Ngyuen Pham

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available We are interested in learning and working scenarios integrating web service retrieval and orchestration in pervasive TEL systems in a learning situation at workplace. This paper proposes a context-aware model of corporate learning and working scenarios in e-retail environment such as shops and hypermarkets. This scenario model enables us to select how to achieve activities according to the current situation. We outline the semantic description of web services to enable the selection, composition and execution of web services to achieve objectives specified by learning and working activities. We propose a context-aware and adaptive model for pervasive learning systems. This model enables the selection of the relevant methods or services to realize activities according to the current situation. Moreover, we also build and develop an Intelligent Selling Space (ISS architecture that serves as an infrastructure for service management and execution in e-retail environment.

  10. Validation of scenario-based business requirements with Coloured Petri Nets

    OpenAIRE

    Ribeiro, Óscar R.; Fernandes, João M.

    2009-01-01

    A scenario can be used to describe a possible instantiation of a given business use case and can be expressed for example as a list of steps written in natural language, or by an interaction diagram. This paper discusses how a collection of scenarios, all expressed as UML2 sequence diagrams, can be described for validation purposes by a single model, written in the Coloured Petri Nets (CPN) modelling language. Due to the support for parallelism given by the CPN language, the obtained CPN m...

  11. NASA TLA workload analysis support. Volume 1: Detailed task scenarios for general aviation and metering and spacing studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sundstrom, J. L.

    1980-01-01

    The techniques required to produce and validate six detailed task timeline scenarios for crew workload studies are described. Specific emphasis is given to: general aviation single pilot instrument flight rules operations in a high density traffic area; fixed path metering and spacing operations; and comparative workload operation between the forward and aft-flight decks of the NASA terminal control vehicle. The validation efforts also provide a cursory examination of the resultant demand workload based on the operating procedures depicted in the detailed task scenarios.

  12. Scenarios of a deregulated electricity industry. Analysis; Szenarien einer liberalisierten Stromversorgung. Analyse

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Foerster, G.

    2002-07-01

    Four scenarios have been established which represent the spectrum of probable developments in the Internal Market until 2010. The content-related postulations are described in two parts. In the first part, various fundamental settings are defined which apply to all four scenarios alike, whereas in the second part a set of influencing variables (descriptors) are defined which develop along dissimilar, distinctive lines and thus can be used for modelling within the four different scenarios. Applying a special scenario analysing method, the cross-impact method, those combinations of descriptors can be derived which lead to conclusive scenarios and consistent postulations. (orig./CB) [German] Es wurden vier Szenarien erarbeitet, die das Spektrum der wahrscheinlichen Entwicklungen im EU-Binnenmarkt bis zum Jahr 2010 repraesentieren. Die inhaltlichen Aussagen werden in zwei Teilen beschrieben. Der erste Teil beinhaltet eine Reihe von Rahmengroessen, die fuer alle vier Szenarien gleich sind. Der zweite Teil besteht aus einem Satz von Einflussgroessen (Deskriptoren) mit verschiedenen Auspraegungen, in denen sich die vier Szenarien unterscheiden. Mit Hilfe einer speziellen Szenariotechnik, der Cross-Impact-Methode, bestimmt man diejenigen Kombinationen der Deskriptorauspraegungen, die zu in sich schluessigen Szenarien ohne widerspruechliche Assagen fuehren. (orig./CB)

  13. Scenario Analysis for Programmatic Tuberculosis Control in Western Province, Papua New Guinea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trauer, James M; Denholm, Justin T; Waseem, Saba; Ragonnet, Romain; McBryde, Emma S

    2016-06-15

    Tuberculosis (TB) and multidrug-resistant TB (MDR-TB) are major health problems in Western Province, Papua New Guinea. While comprehensive expansion of TB control programs is desirable, logistical challenges are considerable, and there is substantial uncertainty regarding the true disease burden. We parameterized our previously described mathematical model of Mycobacterium tuberculosis dynamics in Western Province, following an epidemiologic assessment. Five hypothetical scenarios representing alternative programmatic approaches during the period from 2013 to 2023 were developed with local staff. Bayesian uncertainty analyses were undertaken to explicitly acknowledge the uncertainty around key epidemiologic parameters, and an economic evaluation was performed. With continuation of existing programmatic strategies, overall TB incidence remained stable at 555 cases per 100,000 population per year (95% simulation interval (SI): 420, 807), but the proportion of incident cases attributable to MDR-TB increased from 16% to 35%. Comprehensive, provincewide strengthening of existing programs reduced incidence to 353 cases per 100,000 population per year (95% SI: 246, 558), with 46% being cases of MDR-TB, while incorporating programmatic management of MDR-TB into these programs reduced incidence to 233 cases per 100,000 population per year (95% SI: 198, 269) with 14% MDR-TB. Most economic costs were due to hospitalization during the intensive treatment phase. Broad scale-up of TB control activities in Western Province with incorporation of programmatic management of MDR-TB is vital if control is to be achieved. Community-based treatment approaches are important to reduce the associated economic costs. PMID:27199387

  14. Environmental assessment of amine-based carbon capture Scenario modelling with life cycle assessment (LCA)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brekke, Andreas; Askham, Cecilia; Modahl, Ingunn Saur; Vold, Bjoern Ivar; Johnsen, Fredrik Moltu

    2012-07-01

    This report contains a first attempt at introducing the environmental impacts associated with amines and derivatives in a life cycle assessment (LCA) of gas power production with carbon capture and comparing these with other environmental impacts associated with the production system. The report aims to identify data gaps and methodological challenges connected both to modelling toxicity of amines and derivatives and weighting of environmental impacts. A scenario based modelling exercise was performed on a theoretical gas power plant with carbon capture, where emission levels of nitrosamines were varied between zero (gas power without CCS) to a worst case level (outside the probable range of actual carbon capture facilities). Because of extensive research and development in the areas of solvents and emissions from carbon capture facilities in the latter years, data used in the exercise may be outdated and results should therefore not be taken at face value.The results from the exercise showed: According to UseTox, emissions of nitrosamines are less important than emissions of formaldehyde with regard to toxicity related to operation of (i.e. both inputs to and outputs from) a carbon capture facility. If characterisation factors for emissions of metals are included, these outweigh all other toxic emissions in the study. None of the most recent weighting methods in LCA include characterisation factors for nitrosamines, and these are therefore not part of the environmental ranking.These results shows that the EDecIDe project has an important role to play in developing LCA methodology useful for assessing the environmental performance of amine based carbon capture in particular and CCS in general. The EDecIDe project will examine the toxicity models used in LCA in more detail, specifically UseTox. The applicability of the LCA compartment models and site specificity issues for a Norwegian/Arctic situation will be explored. This applies to the environmental compartments

  15. A change navigation-based, scenario planning process within a developing world context from an Afro-centric leadership perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chris A. Geldenhuys

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Orientation: In the hyper turbulent context faced currently by organisations, more flexible strategic planning approaches, such as scenario planning which take into account a more comprehensive range of possible futures for an organisation, will position organisations better than conventional forecast and estimates that depend only on a single, linearly extrapolated, strategic response.Research purpose: This study aimed to investigate how scenario-based planning (a strictly cognitive management tool can be combined with organisational change navigation (a practice addressing the emotionality of change and how this integrated process should be aligned with the prerequisites imposed by a developing country context and an Afro-centric leadership perspective in order to make the process more context relevant and aligned.Motivation for the study: The integration of organisational change navigation with conventional scenario based planning, as well as the incorporation of the perquisites of a developing countries and an Afro-centric leadership perspective, will give organisations a more robust, holistic strategic management tool that will add significantly more value within a rapidly, radically and unpredictably changing world.Research design, approach and method: The adopted research approach comprised a combination of the sourcing of the latest thinking in the literature (the ‘theory’ as well as the views of seasoned practitioners of scenario planning (the ‘practice’ through an iterative research process, moving between theory and practice, back to practice and finally returning to theory in order to arrive at a validated expanded and enhanced scenario-based planning process which is both theory and practice ‘proof’.Main findings: A management tool incorporating the change navigation and the unique features of developing countries and Afro-centric leadership was formulated and empirically validated. This management tool is referred to as

  16. Supporting Primary-Level Mathematics Teachers' Collaboration in Designing and Using Technology-Based Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Misfeldt, Morten; Zacho, Lis

    2016-01-01

    In this article, we address how the design of educational scenarios can support teachers' adoption of both technology and open-ended projects indorsing creativity and innovation. We do that by describing how groups of teachers develop digital learning environments supporting using a combination of GeoGebra and Google sites. Both teachers and…

  17. Scenario-based tsunami hazard assessment for the coast of Vietnam from the Manila Trench source

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong Nguyen, Phuong; Cong Bui, Que; Ha Vu, Phuong; The Pham, Truyen

    2014-11-01

    This paper assesses the impact of tsunamis in the East Vietnam Sea potentially originated from a giant rupture along the Manila Trench to the Vietnamese coast. Tsunami heights and arrival times to the major forecast points along the Vietnamese coast are computed using COMCOT model. The results of the worst case scenario (Mw = 9.3) and two extreme scenarios were used to assess the tsunami hazards. The simulation results show that Vietnamese coast can be divided into three parts with different levels of tsunami hazard. The highest threat exists along the coasts of Central and North-Central Vietnam, from Quang Binh to Ba Ria - Vung Tau provinces, with maximum wave height of 18 m observed near Quang Ngai coast, and a tsunami would reach this coastline in two hours at the earliest. The northern coastal zone of Vietnam has lower tsunami hazard. In the worst case scenario, maximum amplitudes of tsunami waves at Hai Phong sea port and Nam Dinh city, North Vietnam, are 3.5 m and 3.7 m, respectively, while the travel times to these sites are much longer, over 8 h. The southern coastal zone of Vietnam has very low tsunami hazard. In the worst case scenario, the maximum amplitude at Ca Mau is 0.12 m, while the travel time is over 10 h.

  18. Maximum Loss Calculation using Scenario Analysis, Heavy Tails and Implied Volatility Patterns

    OpenAIRE

    Söderman, Ronnie

    2000-01-01

    The objective of this paper is to improve option risk monitoring by examining the information content of implied volatility and by introducing the calculation of a single-sum expected risk exposure similar to the Value-at-Risk. The figure is calculated in two steps. First, there is a need to estimate the value of a portfolio of options for a number of different market scenarios, while the second step is to summarize the information content of the estimated scenarios into a single-sum risk mea...

  19. Scenarios for groundwater flow and radionuclide migration of concern for the TVO-92 safety analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The project aims at formulating different scenarios relevant to performance assessment of radioactive waste repositories in a crystalline rock formation. The scenarios studied range from a repository located in virgin rock to more complex situations with the potential repository located in the rock but being intersected by fracture zones with different inclinations and strikes relative to the prevailing gradient. The project comprises a study of regional flow and migration systems, and also involves discussions on local scale phenomena such as release from the canisters to the near-field barrier, and phenomena related to the disturbed zone around the repository tunnels

  20. Spatially explicit scenario analysis for hydrologic services in an urbanizing agricultural watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiu, J.; Booth, E.; Carpenter, S. R.; Turner, M.

    2013-12-01

    The sustainability of hydrologic services (benefits to people generated by terrestrial ecosystem effects on freshwater) is challenged by changes in climate and land use. Despite the importance of hydrologic services, few studies have investigated how the provision of ecosystem services related to freshwater quantity and quality may vary in magnitude and spatial pattern for alternative future trajectories. Such analyses may provide useful information for sustaining freshwater resources in the face of a complex and uncertain future. We analyzed the supply of multiple hydrologic services from 2010 to 2070 across a large urbanizing agricultural watershed in the Upper Midwest of the United States, and asked the following: (i) What are the potential trajectories for the supply of hydrologic services under contrasting but plausible future scenarios? (ii) Where on the landscape is the delivery of hydrologic services most vulnerable to future changes? The Nested Watershed scenario represents extreme climate change (warmer temperatures and more frequent extreme events) and a concerted response from institutions, whereas in the Investment in Innovation scenario, climate change is less severe and technological innovations play a major role. Despite more extreme climate in the Nested Watershed scenario, all hydrologic services (i.e., freshwater supply, surface water quality, flood regulation) were maintained or enhanced (~30%) compared to the 2010 baseline, by strict government interventions that prioritized freshwater resources. Despite less extreme climate in the Investment in Innovation scenario and advances in green technology, only surface water quality and flood regulation were maintained or increased (~80%); freshwater supply declined by 25%, indicating a potential future tradeoff between water quality and quantity. Spatially, the locations of greatest vulnerability (i.e., decline) differed by service and among scenarios. In the Nested Watershed scenario, although

  1. Application of portfolio analysis to the Dutch generating mix. Reference case and two renewables cases, year 2030, SE and GE scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This report presents results of an application of Markowitz Portfolio Theory (MPT) to the future portfolio of electricity generating technologies in the Netherlands in year 2030. Projections are made based on two specific scenarios constructed by the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB), i.e. 'Strong Europe (SE)' and 'Global Economy (GE)'. This study zooms in on the electricity cost risk dimension of the Dutch portfolio of generating technologies. Major results of this study are: (a) In both scenarios, the base variant is not very efficient. Graphical analysis suggests that diversification may yield up to 20% risk reduction at no extra cost; (b) Promotion of renewable energy can greatly decrease the portfolio risk. Defining mixes without renewables results in significantly riskier mixes with relatively small impact on portfolio costs; (c) Because of its relative low risk and high potential, large-scale implementation of offshore wind can reduce cost risk of the Dutch generating portfolio while only in the GE scenario a (small) upward effect on the projected Dutch electricity cost in year 2030 is foreseen. In a SE world large-scale implementation of offshore wind is projected to have a downward effect on Dutch electricity prices by the year 2030

  2. A prospective scenario of the French nuclear fleet growth based on sodium cooled fast reactor technology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Generation IV Sodium cooled Fast Reactors (SFR) deployment would allow to optimize the use of the various available resources (natural, reprocessed and depleted uranium, plutonium) thanks to breeding capacities featuring a valuable advantage with respect to the fuel cycle flexibility and fissile material management. The complete replacement of the 60 GWe French nuclear fleet by GEN IV SFRs in 2100 would require around 1000 tons of plutonium. An accurate simulation of this prospective scenario shows that the amount of plutonium issued from the French PWRs spent fuel reprocessing would not be enough. The lacking amount of plutonium could be produced with fertile blankets during the transient SFR deployment phase. A more ambitious research scenario, aimed at doubling the nuclear French fleet installed power in 2100, would require to use SFRs at their maximum breeding capacity. However, it is not possible to deploy more than about 100 GWe of SFRs in 2100, meaning that the fleet growth would have to be partially supported by GEN III PWRs. Using the scenario simulation code TIRELIRE-STRATEGIE, we have optimized the main scenario parameters: the capacities of the fuel cycle facilities, the proportion of PWRs necessary for supporting the growth phase, the kinetics of SFRs deployment compatible with the plutonium build-up, etc., while respecting industrial constraints such as a realistic cooling time before reprocessing, a fuel cycle plants utilization rate constant over several decades, etc.. We illustrate the impact of this French fleet growth scenario over the nuclear material fluxes in the fuel cycle plants, the uranium consumption, and the waste production. (author)

  3. Usability Assessment of International Office Website of Diponegoro University With Scenario Based Usability Evaluation Method and Wammi Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ratna Purwaningsih

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Website development needs to pay attention to usability aspect which consist of four factors: efficiency, effectiveness, satisfactions and error rate. The website of International Office of Diponegoro University provides academic information for Indonesian students and foreign students. The website still has some problem, especially on searching certain information. This research aims to evaluate the design of the existing website and measures the usability. A well-designed website will help users to meet theirs needs and purposes. The methods used in this study are Scenario-Based End-User Evaluation and WAMMI (Website Analysis and Measurement Inventory. Users perform a number of task on the existing website and on the redesigned website and then provide feedback for each task they have done and fill a WAMMI questionnaire as a test of memorability. This questionnaire used to test users memory on access process of a page from the site. The results of the data processing of usability test show that redesigned website has better value than existing website on effectiveness, efficiency, memorability and error rate.

  4. Hydrological Response to Climate Change over the Blue Nile Basin Distributed hydrological modeling based on surrogate climate change scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berhane, F. G.; Anyah, R. O.

    2010-12-01

    The program Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT2009) model has been applied to the Blue Nile Basin to study the hydrological response to surrogate climate changes over the Blue Nile Basin (Ethiopia) by downscaling gridded weather data. The specific objectives of the study include (i) examining the performance of the SWAT model in simulating hydrology-climate interactions and feedbacks within the entire Blue Nile Basin, and (ii) investigating the response of hydrological variables to surrogate climate changes. Monthly weather data from the Climate Research Unit (CRU) are converted to daily values as input into the SWAT using Monthly to Daily Weather Converter (MODAWEC). Using the program SUFI-2 (Sequential Uncertainty Fitting Algorithm), data from 1979 to 1983 are applied for sensitivity analysis and calibration (P-factor = 90%, R-factor =0.7, R2 =0.93 and NS=0.93) and subsequently to validate hindcasts over the period 1984-1989 (R2 =0.92 and NS=0.92). The period from 1960-2000 was used as baseline and has been used to determine the changes and the effect of the surrogate climate changes over the Blue Nile Basin. Overall, our surrogate climate change based simulations indicate the hydrology of the Blue Nile catchment is very sensitive to potential climate change with 100%, 34% and 51% increase to the surface runoff, lateral flow and water yield respectively for the A2 scenario surrogate. Key Words: SWAT, MODAWEC, Blue Nile Basin, SUFI-2, climate change, hydrological modeling, CRU

  5. Analysis of Phosphorus Flows through Minnesota's Twin Cities Urban Food-Shed: Three Scenarios for Improving Nutrient Efficiency

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peterson, H. M.; Baker, L. A.

    2012-12-01

    cropping system within the food-shed. P use efficiencies for these systems include: corn (1.14), hog (0.47), dairy (0.36), and beef (0.20). We will present three scenarios to illustrate how upstream and downstream changes alter the urban food-shed P balance. The first scenario examines upstream (food processing) waste management to identify nutrient recycling inefficiencies between agricultural and urban systems. The second scenario focuses on quantifying how altering consumer choices, such as converting to a more vegetable-based diet, shifts the P balance within the food-shed. The final scenario seeks to improve P use efficiency within the urban ecosystem to reduce downstream transfer. This research will contribute to the understanding of how human diets within a concentrated urban ecosystem impact an entire systems P balance. The potential for increasing P use efficiency and identifying barriers and opportunities to improve P use efficiency will be discussed.

  6. Large-scale scenario analysis in forest ecology and forest management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mohren, G.M.J.

    2003-01-01

    Large-scale scenario models have been developed to combine forest inventory data and forest growth models to explore impacts of changes in environmental conditions and consequences of changes in forest management, and to support decision-making and policy development. This article reviews some of th

  7. Decomposition analysis of CO2 emission in long-term climate stabilization scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    To achieve the stabilization of greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations in the atmosphere, the international community will need to intensify its long-term efforts. Many EU countries have released national long-term scenarios toward 2050, and their ambitious targets for CO2 emission reduction are aiming at a decrease of more than 50% of today's emission. In April 2004, Japan began a research project on its long-term climate policy. This paper discusses the long-term scenarios in other countries and the medium-term scenarios in Japan to support the development of a Japan's long-term climate stabilization scenario. In this study, CO2 emission is decomposed with an extended Kaya identity (indexes: CO2 capture and storage, carbon intensity, energy efficiency, energy intensity, economic activity) and a Reduction Balance Table is developed. In order to achieve the ambitious target of a 60-80% reduction, the pace of aggregated energy intensity improvement and carbon intensity decrease must be 2-3 times greater than the previous 40-year historical change, and the change rates need to be maintained for 50 years

  8. Interference analysis in a LTE-A HetNet scenario

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Monteiro, Nuno; Mihovska, Albena D.; Rodrigues, Antonio;

    2013-01-01

    The electromagnetic spectrum is a scarce resource that needs to be efficiently and effectively reused to allow the provider the necessary conditions to satisfy its customers increasing demands. It is vital that the reuse of the spectrum does not lead to high interference scenarios. The use of...

  9. Future trends in worldwide river nitrogen transport and related nitrous oxide emissions : a scenario analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kroeze, C.; Seitzinger, S.P.; Domingues, R.

    2001-01-01

    We analyze possible future trends in dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) export by world rivers and associated emissions of nitrous oxide (N2O). Our scenarios either assume that current trends continue or that nitrogen (N) inputs to aquatic systems are reduced as a result of changes in agriculture pr

  10. Scenario analysis for a intersectorial infrastructure management; Szenarioanalyse fuer intersektorales Infrastruktur-Management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dierich, Axel; Schoen, Susanne [inter 3 - Institut fuer Ressourcenmanagement, Berlin (Germany); Bartels, Marie; Hahne, Michael; Hempel, Leon [Technische Univ. Berlin (Germany). Zentrum Technik und Gesellschaft; Lieb, Renate

    2012-06-15

    Supply networks are coupled to each other in many ways. Within the project ''Simkas-3D'' scenarios for possible interferences of water infrastructures as well as energy infrastructures are developed. It is examined how these crisis events may continue across system boundaries.

  11. Strategies to reduce the environmental impact of an aluminium pressure die casting plant: A scenario analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Neto, B.; Kroeze, C.; Hordijk, L.; Costa, C.; Pulles, M.P.J.

    2009-01-01

    This study explores a model (MIKADO) to analyse scenarios for the reduction of the environmental impact of an aluminium die casting plant. Our model calculates the potential to reduce emissions, and the costs associated with implementation of reduction options. In an earlier paper [Neto, B., Kroeze,

  12. Application of Scenario Analysis and Multiagent Technique in Land-Use Planning: A Case Study on Sanjiang Wetlands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huan Yu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Land-use planning has triggered debates on social and environmental values, in which two key questions will be faced: one is how to see different planning simulation results instantaneously and apply the results back to interactively assist planning work; the other is how to ensure that the planning simulation result is scientific and accurate. To answer these questions, the objective of this paper is to analyze whether and how a bridge can be built between qualitative and quantitative approaches for land-use planning work and to find out a way to overcome the gap that exists between the ability to construct computer simulation models to aid integrated land-use plan making and the demand for them by planning professionals. The study presented a theoretical framework of land-use planning based on scenario analysis (SA method and multiagent system (MAS simulation integration and selected freshwater wetlands in the Sanjiang Plain of China as a case study area. Study results showed that MAS simulation technique emphasizing quantitative process effectively compensated for the SA method emphasizing qualitative process, which realized the organic combination of qualitative and quantitative land-use planning work, and then provided a new idea and method for the land-use planning and sustainable managements of land resources.

  13. Municipal scale scenario: Analysis of an Italian seaside town with MarkAL-TIMES

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This work presents three 25-year energy scenarios developed with the TIMES model generator for Pesaro, a seaside municipality in central Italy. It evaluates the effectiveness of local-scale energy policies in three sectors: households, transport, and the public sector (PS). Since the local energy demand is affected by summer tourism, seasonal consumption by holiday homes was also studied. Three scenarios were hypothesized: Business as Usual (BAU), Exemplary Public Sector (EPS), and Exemplary Municipality (EM). The EPS scenario models the exemplary role that recent European directives attribute to the PS in setting energy efficiency and technology penetration targets for itself; the EM scenario extends these targets to the household sector. In particular, the study underscores the potential of micro-cogeneration technologies in achieving local environmental targets, even though their diffusion would involve an increase in local energy consumption due to internalization of the primary energy used to produce electricity, which would no longer be wholly imported from outside municipal boundaries. The study provides information to local decision-makers by estimating the cost of implementing a number of energy policies. Finally, the study discusses the adequacy of TIMES as a tool to analyse municipal-scale scenarios. - Highlights: ► The main sectors investigated are transportation, household, and public sector. ► To account of touristic season holyday homes are modelled separately. ► Energy efficiency and renewables can help to highly reduce local consumptions. ► Micro-chp increases local consumption internalizing electricity self-production. ► Provide an insight on the adequacy of the use of TIMES at municipal scale.

  14. New Approaches to Transport Project Assessment: Reference Scenario Forecasting and Quantitative Risk Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang

    2010-01-01

    This presentation sets out a new methodology for examining the uncertainties relating to transport decision making based on infrastructure appraisals. Traditional transport infrastructure projects are based upon cost-benefit analyses in order to appraise the projects feasibility. Recent research ....... Additionally, the handling of uncertainties is supplemented by making use of the principle of Optimism Bias, which depicts the historical tendency of overestimating transport related benefits (user demands i.e. travel time savings) and underestimating investment costs.......This presentation sets out a new methodology for examining the uncertainties relating to transport decision making based on infrastructure appraisals. Traditional transport infrastructure projects are based upon cost-benefit analyses in order to appraise the projects feasibility. Recent research...... however has proved that the point estimates derived from such analyses are embedded with a large degree of uncertainty. Thus, a new scheme was proposed in terms of applying quantitative risk analysis (QRA) and Monte Carlo simulation in order to represent the uncertainties within the cost-benefit analysis...

  15. Supporting primary-level mathematics teachers’ collaboration in designing and using technology-based scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Misfeldt, Morten; Zacho, Lis

    2016-01-01

    In this article, we address how the design of educational scenarios can support teachers’ adoption of both technology and open-ended projects indorsing creativity and innovation. We do that by describing how groups of teachers develop digital learning environments supporting using a combination of...... development and testing through qualitative means, aiming to describe the teachers’ appropriation of (1) GeoGebra as a tool for doing and teaching mathematics, and (2) game as a metaphor supporting open-ended projects addressing creativity and innovation in the classroom. The data from the project suggest...... that the notion of “game” can support collaborative scenario design is a viable way of introducing technology and open-ended projects to primary school teachers....

  16. Preparatory Work for a Scenario-Based Electricity Expansion Plan for North Korea after Hypothetical Reunification using WASP-IV

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    It is noteworthy that North Korean government itself has demanded other parties' cooperation in the field of power sector as the top priority to deal with North Korean own economic issues. In this light, the researcher consider that how to build power capacity in North Korean area after reunification needs to be studied with priority. A scenario-based approach is being adopted, and three scenarios are proposed: Scenario increasing capacity at 2.4% annual rate, Imitating South Korean electricity expansion history, and reaching 80% of South Korean Annual Peak Load in 35 years. In order to carry out the research, WASP-IV (Wien Automation System Planning-IV) code developed by IAEA is, with reasonable assumptions, being executed. Annual Peak Load prediction for each scenario, load duration curve, and existing power generating facilities in North Korea are presented herein. This research is being conducted as a preparatory work for the further study. IAEA's WASP-IV is adopted for a scenario-based electricity expansion plan for North Korea after hypothetical reunification between Koreas. Input data including Annual Peak Load, load duration curve, and existing facilities are built and presented. Additional future research includes inputting candidate plants data, cost data such as construction period, operation and maintenance costs, and fuel costs, as well as decommissioning of aged power plants in North Korea to complete WASP-IV execution. Assuming reunification, electricity expansion plan would need to integrate North and South Koreas demands and facilities. However, this research narrows down its scope to North Korean demand and facilities only. Such integrated simulation could be the topic for the later research. This work was supported by the 2014 Research Fund of the KINGS

  17. Scenario-Based Evaluation of Perception of Picture Quality Failures in LCD Televisions

    OpenAIRE

    Keijzers, J.; Scholten, L.; Lu, Y; den Ouden, E.

    2009-01-01

    In innovative Consumer Electronics products, such as LCD televisions, consumers often perceive the product's malfunctioning differently than designers do. To support critical design decisions, it is therefore important to understand how consumers perceive potential product failures. This paper discusses the development of realistic failure scenarios related to the picture quality of an LCD television. The impact of television content as well as failure origin on the perception of ...

  18. Future Skilled-Labour Markets in Germany: from Model-Based Calculations to Scenarios

    OpenAIRE

    Tobias Maier; Robert Helmrich; Gerd Zika; Marc Ingo Wolter

    2013-01-01

    In this article, we focus on the potential development of the German labour market. For this purpose, wedeveloped a forecasting system that considers both supply and demand by occupational fi elds and qualifi cationsand that relies on consistent datasets, exogenous assumptions and systematic correlations. We presentthe key impacts for our forecasting system and highlight the eff ects of diff erent assumptions (scenarios)exemplifi ed on our demand model. On the supply side, we point out how di...

  19. Ground surface temperature scenarios in complex high-mountain topography based on regional climate model results

    OpenAIRE

    Salzmann, N.; Noetzli, J.; C. Hauck; Gruber, S.; M. Hoelzle; Haeberli, W.

    2007-01-01

    Climate change can have severe impacts on the high-mountain cryosphere, such as instabilities in rock walls induced by thawing permafrost. Relating climate change scenarios produced from global climate models (GCMs) and regional climate models (RCMs) to complex high-mountain environments is a challenging task. The qualitative and quantitative impact of changes in climatic conditions on local to microscale ground surface temperature (GST) and the ground thermal regime is not readily apparent. ...

  20. Google Earth based visualization of Dutch land use scenarios: beyond usability

    OpenAIRE

    Lammeren, van, R.J.A.; Houtkamp, J.M.; Hilferink, M.; Bouwman, A.

    2009-01-01

    This contribution describes GESO, a tool to prepare a Google Earth visualization of the Dutch land use scenarios as created by the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency. This Google Earth (GE) for the Sustainable Outlook tool, named GESO aims to be an effective, easy and low cost way to study Sustainable Outlook data via an interactive 3D visualization that integrates the land use icon and landscape feature approach as presented in the VisualScan study. The concept, implementation and u...

  1. Accuracy of depolarization and delay spread predictions using advanced ray-based modeling in indoor scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mani Francesco

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract This article investigates the prediction accuracy of an advanced deterministic propagation model in terms of channel depolarization and frequency selectivity for indoor wireless propagation. In addition to specular reflection and diffraction, the developed ray tracing tool considers penetration through dielectric blocks and/or diffuse scattering mechanisms. The sensitivity and prediction accuracy analysis is based on two measurement campaigns carried out in a warehouse and an office building. It is shown that the implementation of diffuse scattering into RT significantly increases the accuracy of the cross-polar discrimination prediction, whereas the delay-spread prediction is only marginally improved.

  2. Scenario-based earthquake hazard and risk assessment for Baku (Azerbaijan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Babayev

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available A rapid growth of population, intensive civil and industrial building, land and water instabilities (e.g. landslides, significant underground water level fluctuations, and the lack of public awareness regarding seismic hazard contribute to the increase of vulnerability of Baku (the capital city of the Republic of Azerbaijan to earthquakes. In this study, we assess an earthquake risk in the city determined as a convolution of seismic hazard (in terms of the surface peak ground acceleration, PGA, vulnerability (due to building construction fragility, population features, the gross domestic product per capita, and landslide's occurrence, and exposure of infrastructure and critical facilities. The earthquake risk assessment provides useful information to identify the factors influencing the risk. A deterministic seismic hazard for Baku is analysed for four earthquake scenarios: near, far, local, and extreme events. The seismic hazard models demonstrate the level of ground shaking in the city: PGA high values are predicted in the southern coastal and north-eastern parts of the city and in some parts of the downtown. The PGA attains its maximal values for the local and extreme earthquake scenarios. We show that the quality of buildings and the probability of their damage, the distribution of urban population, exposure, and the pattern of peak ground acceleration contribute to the seismic risk, meanwhile the vulnerability factors play a more prominent role for all earthquake scenarios. Our results can allow elaborating strategic countermeasure plans for the earthquake risk mitigation in the Baku city.

  3. Tsunami hazard potential for the equatorial southwestern Pacific atolls of Tokelau from scenario-based simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orpin, Alan R.; Rickard, Graham J.; Gerring, Peter K.; Lamarche, Geoffroy

    2016-05-01

    Devastating tsunami over the last decade have significantly heightened awareness of the potential consequences and vulnerability of low-lying Pacific islands and coastal regions. Our appraisal of the potential tsunami hazard for the atolls of the Tokelau Islands is based on a tsunami source-propagation-inundation model using Gerris Flow Solver, adapted from the companion study by Lamarche et al. (2015) for the islands of Wallis and Futuna. We assess whether there is potential for tsunami flooding on any of the village islets from a selection of 14 earthquake-source experiments. These earthquake sources are primarily based on the largest Pacific earthquakes of Mw ≥ 8.1 since 1950 and other large credible sources of tsunami that may impact Tokelau. Earthquake-source location and moment magnitude are related to tsunami-wave amplitudes and tsunami flood depths simulated for each of the three atolls of Tokelau. This approach yields instructive results for a community advisory but is not intended to be fully deterministic. Rather, the underlying aim is to identify credible sources that present the greatest potential to trigger an emergency response. Results from our modelling show that wave fields are channelled by the bathymetry of the Pacific basin in such a way that the swathes of the highest waves sweep immediately northeast of the Tokelau Islands. Our limited simulations suggest that trans-Pacific tsunami from distant earthquake sources to the north of Tokelau pose the most significant inundation threat. In particular, our assumed worst-case scenario for the Kuril Trench generated maximum modelled-wave amplitudes in excess of 1 m, which may last a few hours and include several wave trains. Other sources can impact specific sectors of the atolls, particularly distant earthquakes from Chile and Peru, and regional earthquake sources to the south. Flooding is dependent on the wave orientation and direct alignment to the incoming tsunami. Our "worst-case" tsunami

  4. Emergy Analysis and Sustainability Efficiency Analysis of Different Crop-Based Biodiesel in Life Cycle Perspective

    OpenAIRE

    Jingzheng Ren; Alessandro Manzardo; Anna Mazzi; Andrea Fedele; Antonio Scipioni

    2013-01-01

    Biodiesel as a promising alternative energy resource has been a hot spot in chemical engineering nowadays, but there is also an argument about the sustainability of biodiesel. In order to analyze the sustainability of biodiesel production systems and select the most sustainable scenario, various kinds of crop-based biodiesel including soybean-, rapeseed-, sunflower-, jatropha- and palm-based biodiesel production options are studied by emergy analysis; soybean-based scenario is recognized as t...

  5. Risk-based damage potential and loss estimation of extreme flooding scenarios in the Austrian Federal Province of Tyrol

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Huttenlau

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Within the last decades serious flooding events occurred in many parts of Europe and especially in 2005 the Austrian Federal Province of Tyrol was serious affected. These events in general and particularly the 2005 event have sensitised decision makers and the public. Beside discussions pertaining to protection goals and lessons learnt, the issue concerning potential consequences of extreme and severe flooding events has been raised. Additionally to the general interest of the public, decision makers of the insurance industry, public authorities, and responsible politicians are especially confronted with the question of possible consequences of extreme events. Answers thereof are necessary for the implementation of preventive appropriate risk management strategies. Thereby, property and liability losses reflect a large proportion of the direct tangible losses. These are of great interest for the insurance sector and can be understood as main indicators to interpret the severity of potential events. The natural scientific-technical risk analysis concept provides a predefined and structured framework to analyse the quantities of affected elements at risk, their corresponding damage potentials, and the potential losses. Generally, this risk concept framework follows the process steps hazard analysis, exposition analysis, and consequence analysis. Additionally to the conventional hazard analysis, the potential amount of endangered elements and their corresponding damage potentials were analysed and, thereupon, concrete losses were estimated. These took the specific vulnerability of the various individual elements at risk into consideration. The present flood risk analysis estimates firstly the general exposures of the risk indicators in the study area and secondly analyses the specific exposures and consequences of five extreme event scenarios. In order to precisely identify, localize, and characterize the relevant risk indicators of buildings

  6. Integrated impact analysis of a nuclear power plant: evaluation of accident scenarios, radiological dose estimates and protective measures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The potential environmental impact associated to hypothetical accident scenarios in nuclear power plants can be better evaluated by using an integrated analysis approach. This approach would also help the planning of protective measures to protect public and the environment. The objective of this work identification of critical areas and groups of population, in terms of protective measures, by taking a geographical information system approach in the region of Angra dos Reis, where the Brazilian nuclear power plant is located

  7. Event-based knowledge elicitation of operating room management decision-making using scenarios adapted from information systems data

    OpenAIRE

    Epstein Richard H; Wachtel Ruth E; Dexter Franklin

    2011-01-01

    Abstract Background No systematic process has previously been described for a needs assessment that identifies the operating room (OR) management decisions made by the anesthesiologists and nurse managers at a facility that do not maximize the efficiency of use of OR time. We evaluated whether event-based knowledge elicitation can be used practically for rapid assessment of OR management decision-making at facilities, whether scenarios can be adapted automatically from information systems dat...

  8. Developing courses with HoloRena, a framework for scenario- and game based e-learning environments

    OpenAIRE

    Laszlo Juracz

    2010-01-01

    However utilizing rich, interactive solutions can make learning more effective and attractive, scenario- and game-based educational resources on the web are not widely used. Creating these applications is a complex, expensive and challenging process. Development frameworks and authoring tools hardly support reusable components, teamwork and learning management system-independent courseware architecture. In this article we initiate the concept of a low-level, thick-client solution addressing t...

  9. Analysis of a postulated accident scenario involving loss of forced flow in a LMFBR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A model to analyse a postulated accident scenario involving loss of forced flow in the reactor vessel of a LMFBR is used. Five phases of the accident are analysed: Natural Circulation, Subcooled Boiling, Nucleate Boiling, Core Dryout and Cladding melt. The heat conduction in the fuel cladding, coolant and lower and upper plenum are calculated by a lump-parameter model. Physical data of a prototype LMFBR reactor were used for the calculation. (author)

  10. Performance analysis of Xen virtual machines in real-world scenarios

    OpenAIRE

    Heissler, Adrian

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents results of the performance benchmarks of the Open Source hypervisor Xen. The study focuses on the network related performance as well as on the application related performance of multiple virtual machines that were running on the same Xen hypervisor. The comparison was carried out using a self-developed benchmark suite that consists of easily available Open Source tools. The goal is to measure the performance of the hypervisor in typical real-world application scenarios wh...

  11. A design methodology for scenario-analysis in urban freight modelling

    OpenAIRE

    Ambrosini, Christian; Gonzalez-Feliu, Jesus; Toilier, Florence

    2013-01-01

    International audience Urban goods movement modelling is a popular subject in urban logistics research. However, most models remain under-used because practitioners have difficulties to apply them to simulate urban policies and their impacts on transport flows, mainly when the assessed situations are different from the initial usage of the mode. This paper aims to answer to that issue by proposing a methodology of scenario construction and assessment using current models and tools. The met...

  12. Scenario Analysis of Nutrient Removal from Municipal Wastewater by Microalgal Biofilms

    OpenAIRE

    Wijffels, René H.; Nadine C. Boelee; Marcel Janssen; Hardy Temmink; Buisman, Cees J. N.

    2012-01-01

    Microalgae can be used for the treatment of municipal wastewater. The application of microalgal biofilms in wastewater treatment systems seems attractive, being able to remove nitrogen, phosphorus and COD from wastewater at a short hydraulic retention time. This study therefore investigates the area requirement, achieved effluent concentrations and biomass production of a hypothetical large-scale microalgal biofilm system treating municipal wastewater. Three scenarios were defined: using micr...

  13. Thermodynamic analysis of spent pyrochemical salts in the stored condition and in viable accident scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This study involves examining ''spent'' electrorefining (ER) salts in the form present after usage (as stored), and then after exposure to water in a proposed accident scenario. Additionally, the equilibrium composition of the salt after extended exposure to air was also calculated by computer modeling and those results are also presented herein. It should be noted that these salts are extremely similar to spent MSE salts from the Rocky Flats MSE campaigns using NaCl-KCl- MgCl2

  14. Robustness Analysis of Regional Water Supply Portfolios using Synthetic Inflow Scenarios with Variable Drought Frequency

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herman, J. D.; Zeff, H. B.; Lamontagne, J. R.; Reed, P. M.; Characklis, G. W.

    2015-12-01

    Robustness analyses of water supply systems have moved toward exploratory simulation to discover scenarios in which existing or planned policies may fail to meet stakeholder objectives. Such assessments rely heavily on the choice of plausible future scenarios, which, in the case of drought management, requires sampling or generating a broad ensemble of reservoir inflows which do not necessarily reflect the historical record. Here we adapt a widely used synthetic streamflow generation method to adjust the frequency of low-flow periods, which can be related to impactful historical events from the perspective of decision makers. Specifically, the modified generation procedure allows the user to specify parameters n, p such that events with observed weekly non-exceedance frequency p appear in the synthetic scenario with approximate frequency np (i.e., the pth percentile flow occurs n times more frequently). Additionally, the generator preserves the historical autocorrelation of streamflow and its seasonality, as well as approximate multi-site correlation. Using model simulations from recent work in multi-objective urban drought portfolio planning in North Carolina, a region whose water supply faces both climate and population pressures, we illustrate the decision-relevant consequences caused by raising the frequency of low flows associated with the 2007-2008 drought. This method explores system performance under extreme events of increasing frequency prior to reconciling these findings with climate model projections, and thus can be used to support bottom-up robustness methods in water systems planning.

  15. Scenario analysis of China's emissions pathways in the 21st century for low carbon transition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    China's growing demand for energy - and its dependence on coal - has seen its carbon emissions increase more than 50% since 2000. Within the debate about mitigating global climate change, there is mounting pressure for emerging economies like China to take more responsibility for reducing their carbon emissions within a post-2012 international climate change policy framework. For China, this leads to fundamental questions about how feasible it is for the country to shift away from its recent carbon intensive pattern of growth. This paper presents some general results of scenarios that have been developed to investigate how China might continue to develop within a cumulative carbon emissions budget. The results show how changes in the key sectors of the Chinese economy could enable China to follow four different low carbon development pathways, each of which complies with a cumulative emissions constraint. Each scenario reflects different priorities for governmental decision making, infrastructure investments and social preferences. Having compared the key features of each scenario, the paper concludes with some implications for Chinese government policy.

  16. Scenario analysis of China's emissions pathways in the 21st century for low carbon transition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    China's growing demand for energy - and its dependence on coal - has seen its carbon emissions increase more than 50% since 2000. Within the debate about mitigating global climate change, there is mounting pressure for emerging economies like China to take more responsibility for reducing their carbon emissions within a post-2012 international climate change policy framework. For China, this leads to fundamental questions about how feasible it is for the country to shift away from its recent carbon intensive pattern of growth. This paper presents some general results of scenarios that have been developed to investigate how China might continue to develop within a cumulative carbon emissions budget. The results show how changes in the key sectors of the Chinese economy could enable China to follow four different low carbon development pathways, each of which complies with a cumulative emissions constraint. Each scenario reflects different priorities for governmental decision making, infrastructure investments and social preferences. Having compared the key features of each scenario, the paper concludes with some implications for Chinese government policy. (author)

  17. The world in scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    As an introduction to this special issue 'Worlds of difference: Scenarios's for the economy, energy and the environment 1990-2015', an outline is given of the future of the world and the Netherlands, based on four scenarios. These scenarios are published in 'Scanning the future' in May 1992 by the CPB, the Dutch Central Planning Bureau. The Global Shift (GS) scenario is characterized by a very dynamic technological development, the free market perspective, strong economic growth in the Asian economies, and a relative economic regression in Western Europe. In the European Renaissance (ER) scenario the technological development is less dynamic and more gradual than in the GS scenario. The Balanced Growth (BG) scenario is dominated by a sustainable economic development and a strong technological dynamic development. The Global Crisis (GC) scenario shows a downward spiral in many areas, stagnating developments and fragile economies as results of the trends in the eighties. The first three scenarios are elaborated for the Netherlands. Also attention is paid to the aims and meaning of long-term scenarios. 2 figs., 2 tabs., 3 refs

  18. Entry modes and the impact of mobile microfinance at the Base of the Pyramid: Scenarios of “My Village Phone” in Egypt

    OpenAIRE

    Mostafa, Mohamad

    2010-01-01

    The expansion of mobile telecoms in the Egyptian market has contributed to different development paradigms. The entry mode and the way telecoms follow to access the Base of the Pyramid market in Egypt identifies which paradigm will take place in the future. Using the case of “My Village Phone” we developed a scenario analysis to explore the linkages between the entry modes and development paradigms. We found that “Pro-poor”, “Para-poor”, “Per-poor”, “Per-poor exports” and “Networked” are expe...

  19. Conceiving Scenario-Based IS Support for Knowledge Synthesis: The Organization Architect

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kam Hou VAT

    2005-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the idea of creating information systems (IS support for knowledge work through the elaboration of typical organizational scenarios. Specifically, our research is driven by a belief that the design issues of IS support must be situated in the context of social processes in which, in a specific organizational scenario, a particular group of people can conceptualize their knowledge work and hence the purposeful action they wish to undertake. This provides the basis for ascertaining what information support is needed by those who undertake that action, and how modern information technology can help to provide that support. Thereby, designing IS support for knowledge work requires attention to the purposeful action which the IS serves, and hence to the meanings which make those particular actions meaningful and relevant to particular groups of people in a particular situation. This is often facilitated by the provision of an important enquiry process constantly attended to, and integrated into organizational activities by which IS professionals could learn of the organization's continual adjustments to its changing world. Our discussion here brings forth the notion of the learning organization information systems (LOIS, through which each member of the organization is enabled to create his or her own knowledge space, which is subject to some level of description, and thus may be architected and integrated into an organization. Importantly, in order to develop the various LOIS support for knowledge work, we need the correspondent organization scenarios to contextualize the IS design. And we attribute this development philosophy to the essence of systems thinking in conceiving IS support. The paper concludes by reiterating the work of the organization architect, which entails understanding, analyzing, designing, and communicating the most relevant parts of the organization and how they fit together.

  20. Deploying a Single or a Double Cluster Head Particle Swarm Optimization Technique based on WSN scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Akanksha Mohan Gupte

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Designing a WSN involves taking into account two most important design criterions. One is achieving the energy optimization and other is enhancing the network longevity. Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO technique is an efficient protocol which is capable of achieving these deign goals. Now PSO algorithm can be designed either having a Single Cluster Head or Double Cluster Heads. This paper deals with the choice to be made out of these algorithms depending upon the Wireless Sensor Network (WSN scenarios. PSO being a heuristic technique, it is very important to choose the efficient method in order to achieve an improved network lifetime along with reduction in energy consumption.