WorldWideScience

Sample records for based scenario analysis

  1. Scenario analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Li, L.; Braat, L.C.; Lei, G.; Arets, E.J.M.M.; Liu, J.; Jiang, L.; Fan, Z.; Liu, W.; He, H.; Sun, X.

    2014-01-01

    This chapter presents the results of the scenario analysis of China’s ecosystems focusing on forest, grassland, and wetland ecosystems. The analysis was undertaken using Conversion of Land Use Change and its Effects (CLUE) modeling and an ecosystem service matrix (as explained below) complemented by

  2. European Climate - Energy Security Nexus. A model based scenario analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In this research, we have provided an overview of the climate-security nexus in the European sector through a model based scenario analysis with POLES model. The analysis underline that under stringent climate policies, Europe take advantage of a double dividend in its capacity to develop a new cleaner energy model and in lower vulnerability to potential shocks on the international energy markets. (authors)

  3. Hybrid Scenario Based Performance Analysis of DSDV and DSSR

    CERN Document Server

    Majumder, Koushik; 10.5121/ijcsit.2010.2305

    2010-01-01

    The area of mobile ad hoc networking has received considerable attention of the research community in recent years. These networks have gained immense popularity primarily due to their infrastructure-less mode of operation which makes them a suitable candidate for deployment in emergency scenarios like relief operation, battlefield etc., where either the pre-existing infrastructure is totally damaged or it is not possible to establish a new infrastructure quickly. However, MANETs are constrained due to the limited transmission range of the mobile nodes which reduces the total coverage area. Sometimes the infrastructure-less ad hoc network may be combined with a fixed network to form a hybrid network which can cover a wider area with the advantage of having less fixed infrastructure. In such a combined network, for transferring data, we need base stations which act as gateways between the wired and wireless domains. Due to the hybrid nature of these networks, routing is considered a challenging task. Several r...

  4. Security Analysis of Selected AMI Failure Scenarios Using Agent Based Game Theoretic Simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Abercrombie, Robert K [ORNL; Schlicher, Bob G [ORNL; Sheldon, Frederick T [ORNL

    2014-01-01

    Information security analysis can be performed using game theory implemented in dynamic Agent Based Game Theoretic (ABGT) simulations. Such simulations can be verified with the results from game theory analysis and further used to explore larger scale, real world scenarios involving multiple attackers, defenders, and information assets. We concentrated our analysis on the Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI) functional domain which the National Electric Sector Cyber security Organization Resource (NESCOR) working group has currently documented 29 failure scenarios. The strategy for the game was developed by analyzing five electric sector representative failure scenarios contained in the AMI functional domain. From these five selected scenarios, we characterize them into three specific threat categories affecting confidentiality, integrity and availability (CIA). The analysis using our ABGT simulation demonstrates how to model the AMI functional domain using a set of rationalized game theoretic rules decomposed from the failure scenarios in terms of how those scenarios might impact the AMI network with respect to CIA.

  5. Strategic bidding in electricity markets: An agent-based simulator with game theory for scenario analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pinto, Tiago; Praca, Isabel; Morais, Hugo;

    2013-01-01

    . MASCEM (Multi-Agent System for Competitive Electricity Markets) is a multi-agent electricity market simulator that models market players and simulates their operation in the market. The scenario analysis algorithm has been tested within MASCEM and our experimental findings with a case study based on real...... application in electricity markets can prove to be a high potential tool. This paper proposes a new scenario analysis algorithm, which includes the application of game-theory, to evaluate and preview different scenarios and provide players with the ability to strategically react in order to exhibit...... the behavior that better fits their objectives. This model includes forecasts of competitor players’ actions, to build models of their behavior, in order to define the most probable expected scenarios. Once the scenarios are defined, game theory is applied to support the choice of the ac-tion to be performed...

  6. Formal analysis of executions of organizational scenarios based on process-oriented models

    OpenAIRE

    Popova, V.; Sharpanskykh, A.

    2007-01-01

    This paper presents various formal techniques for analysis of executions of organizational scenarios based on process-oriented models of organizations. Process-oriented models describe (prescribe) ordering and timing relations on organizational processes, modes of use of resources, allocations of actors to processes etc. The actual execution may diverge from scenarios (pre)defined by a model. A part of techniques proposed in this paper is dedicated to establishing the correspondence between a...

  7. 3D Simulation of Storm Surge Disaster Based on Scenario Analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王晓玲; 孙小沛; 张胜利; 孙蕊蕊; 李瑞金; 朱泽彪

    2016-01-01

    The occurrence of storm surge disaster is often accompanied with floodplain, overflow, dike breach and other complex phenomena, while current studies on storm surge flooding are more concentrated on the 1D/2D numerical simulation of single disaster scenario (floodplain, overflow or dike breach), ignoring the composite ef-fects of various phenomena. Therefore, considering the uncertainty in the disaster process of storm surge, scenario analysis was firstly proposed to identify the composite disaster scenario including multiple phenomena by analyzing key driving forces, building scenario matrix and deducing situation logic. Secondly, by combining the advantages of k-ωand k-εmodels in the wall treatment, a shear stress transmission k-ωmodel coupled with VOF was proposed to simulate the 3D flood routing for storm surge disaster. Thirdly, risk degree was introduced to make the risk analysis of storm surge disaster. Finally, based on the scenario analysis, four scenarios with different storm surge intensity (100-year and 200-year frequency) were identified in Tianjin Binhai New Area. Then, 3D numerical simulation and risk map were made for the case.

  8. Scenario Analysis of the Philippine Energy Market

    OpenAIRE

    Fe Amor Parel Gudmundsson 1975

    2014-01-01

    This research project investigates the Philippine energy market. The main objective is to provide alternative scenarios, based on the propositions which are generated from literature review. Scenario Analysis is used as the primary tool for the analysis using the Delphi method which includes eight panel of experts as participants. Findings of this research concludes three scenarios: Policy Scenario, Sustainability Scenario, and Energy Price Scenario. Political will is important to address th...

  9. The Efficacy of Digital Case Scenario versus Paper Case Scenario on Clinical Reasoning in Problem Based Learning: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Zarea Gavgani Vahideh; Hazrati Hakime; Ghojazadeh Mortaza

    2015-01-01

    Introduction: In medical and clinical education, creating critical thinking and promoting clinical reasoning abilities are the highest aims and results of education. The main aim of this study was to assess the efficacy of digital case scenarios versus print/paper case scenarios on clinical reasoning in problem-based learning (PBL). If a study used the multimedia scenario case interventions, video case scenarios and online-guided scenarios as digital case PBL, we would cons...

  10. Application of State Analysis and Goal-based Operations to a MER Mission Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morris, John Richard; Ingham, Michel D.; Mishkin, Andrew H.; Rasmussen, Robert D.; Starbird, Thomas W.

    2006-01-01

    State Analysis is a model-based systems engineering methodology employing a rigorous discovery process which articulates operations concepts and operability needs as an integrated part of system design. The process produces requirements on system and software design in the form of explicit models which describe the system behavior in terms of state variables and the relationships among them. By applying State Analysis to an actual MER flight mission scenario, this study addresses the specific real world challenges of complex space operations and explores technologies that can be brought to bear on future missions. The paper first describes the tools currently used on a daily basis for MER operations planning and provides an in-depth description of the planning process, in the context of a Martian day's worth of rover engineering activities, resource modeling, flight rules, science observations, and more. It then describes how State Analysis allows for the specification of a corresponding goal-based sequence that accomplishes the same objectives, with several important additional benefits.

  11. Dynamic Analysis of Nuclear Waste Generation Based on Nuclear Fuel Cycle Transition Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yoon, S. R. [University of Science and Technology, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Ko, W. I. [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-10-15

    According to the recommendations submitted by the Public Engagement Commission on Spent Nuclear Fuel Management (PECOS), the government was advised to pick the site for an underground laboratory and interim storage facilities before the end of 2020 followed by the related research for permanent and underground disposal of spent fuel after 10 years. In the middle of the main issues, the factors of environmentally friendly and safe way to handle nuclear waste are inextricable from nuclear power generating nation to ensure the sustainability of nuclear power. For this purposes, the closed nuclear fuel cycle has been developed regarding deep geological disposal, pyroprocessing, and burner type sodium-cooled fast reactors (SFRs) in Korea. Among two methods of an equilibrium model and a dynamic model generally used for screening nuclear fuel cycle system, the dynamic model is more appropriate to envisage country-specific environment with the transition phase in the long term and significant to estimate meaningful impacts based on the timedependent behavior of harmful wastes. This study aims at analyzing the spent nuclear fuel generation based on the long-term nuclear fuel cycle transition scenarios considered at up-to-date country specific conditions and comparing long term advantages of the developed nuclear fuel cycle option between once-through cycle and Pyro-SFR cycle. In this study, a dynamic analysis was carried out to estimate the long-term projection of nuclear electricity generation, installed capacity, spent nuclear fuel arising in different fuel cycle scenarios based on the up-to-date national energy plans.

  12. A scenario-based modeling approach for emergency evacuation management and risk analysis under multiple uncertainties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Highlights: ► An interval-parameter joint-probabilistic integer programming method is developed. ► It is useful for nuclear emergency management practices under uncertainties. ► It can schedule optimal routes with maximizing evacuees during a finite time. ► Scenario-based analysis enhances robustness in controlling system risk. ► The method will help to improve the capability of disaster responses. -- Abstract: Nuclear emergency evacuation is important to prevent radioactive harms by hazardous materials and to limit the accidents’ consequences; however, uncertainties are involved in the components and processes of such a management system. In the study, an interval-parameter joint-probabilistic integer programming (IJIP) method is developed for emergency evacuation management under uncertainties. Optimization techniques of interval-parameter programming (IPP) and joint-probabilistic constrained (JPC) programming are incorporated into an integer linear programming framework, so that the approach can deal with uncertainties expressed as joint probability and interval values. The IJIP method can schedule the optimal routes to guarantee the maximum population evacuated away from the effected zone during a finite time. Furthermore, it can also facilitate post optimization analysis to enhance robustness in controlling system violation risk imposed on the joint-probabilistic constraints. The developed method has been applied to a case study of nuclear emergency management; meanwhile, a number of scenarios under different system conditions have been analyzed. It is indicated that the solutions are useful for evacuation management practices. The result of the IJIP method can not only help to raise the capability of disaster responses in a systematic manner, but also provide an insight into complex relationships among evacuation planning, resources utilizations, policy requirements and system risks

  13. Scenario analysis and path selection of low-carbon transformation in China based on a modified IPAT model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liang Chen

    Full Text Available This paper presents a forecast and analysis of population, economic development, energy consumption and CO2 emissions variation in China in the short- and long-term steps before 2020 with 2007 as the base year. The widely applied IPAT model, which is the basis for calculations, projections, and scenarios of greenhouse gases (GHGs reformulated as the Kaya equation, is extended to analyze and predict the relations between human activities and the environment. Four scenarios of CO2 emissions are used including business as usual (BAU, energy efficiency improvement scenario (EEI, low carbon scenario (LC and enhanced low carbon scenario (ELC. The results show that carbon intensity will be reduced by 40-45% as scheduled and economic growth rate will be 6% in China under LC scenario by 2020. The LC scenario, as the most appropriate and the most feasible scheme for China's low-carbon development in the future, can maximize the harmonious development of economy, society, energy and environmental systems. Assuming China's development follows the LC scenario, the paper further gives four paths of low-carbon transformation in China: technological innovation, industrial structure optimization, energy structure optimization and policy guidance.

  14. Supply Chain Vulnerability Analysis Using Scenario-Based Input-Output Modeling: Application to Port Operations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thekdi, Shital A; Santos, Joost R

    2016-05-01

    Disruptive events such as natural disasters, loss or reduction of resources, work stoppages, and emergent conditions have potential to propagate economic losses across trade networks. In particular, disruptions to the operation of container port activity can be detrimental for international trade and commerce. Risk assessment should anticipate the impact of port operation disruptions with consideration of how priorities change due to uncertain scenarios and guide investments that are effective and feasible for implementation. Priorities for protective measures and continuity of operations planning must consider the economic impact of such disruptions across a variety of scenarios. This article introduces new performance metrics to characterize resiliency in interdependency modeling and also integrates scenario-based methods to measure economic sensitivity to sudden-onset disruptions. The methods will be demonstrated on a U.S. port responsible for handling $36.1 billion of cargo annually. The methods will be useful to port management, private industry supply chain planning, and transportation infrastructure management.

  15. Supply Chain Vulnerability Analysis Using Scenario-Based Input-Output Modeling: Application to Port Operations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thekdi, Shital A; Santos, Joost R

    2016-05-01

    Disruptive events such as natural disasters, loss or reduction of resources, work stoppages, and emergent conditions have potential to propagate economic losses across trade networks. In particular, disruptions to the operation of container port activity can be detrimental for international trade and commerce. Risk assessment should anticipate the impact of port operation disruptions with consideration of how priorities change due to uncertain scenarios and guide investments that are effective and feasible for implementation. Priorities for protective measures and continuity of operations planning must consider the economic impact of such disruptions across a variety of scenarios. This article introduces new performance metrics to characterize resiliency in interdependency modeling and also integrates scenario-based methods to measure economic sensitivity to sudden-onset disruptions. The methods will be demonstrated on a U.S. port responsible for handling $36.1 billion of cargo annually. The methods will be useful to port management, private industry supply chain planning, and transportation infrastructure management. PMID:26271771

  16. Scenario-based risk analysis of winter snowstorms in the German lowlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    von Wulffen, Anja

    2014-05-01

    conditions. Based on these findings, an exemplary synoptic evolution of a snowstorm leading to representative infrastructure failure cascades is constructed. In a next step, an extrapolation of this obtained scenario to future climate and societal conditions as well as plausible more extreme but not yet observed meteorological conditions is planned in order to obtain a thorough analysis of possible threats to the German food distribution system and a strong foundation for future disaster mitigation planning efforts.

  17. SCENARIO ANALYSIS OF TECHNOLOGY PRODUCTS WITH AN AGENT-BASED SIMULATION AND DATA MINING FRAMEWORK

    OpenAIRE

    AMIT SHINDE; MOEED HAGHNEVIS; Janssen, Marco A.; GEORGE C. RUNGER; MANI JANAKIRAM

    2013-01-01

    A framework is presented to simulate and analyze the effect of multiple business scenarios on the adoption behavior of a group of technology products. Diffusion is viewed as an emergent phenomenon that results from the interaction of consumers. An agent-based model is used in which potential adopters of technology product are allowed to be influenced by their local interactions within the social network. Along with social influence, the effect of product features is important and we ascribe f...

  18. Scenario analysis of energy-based low-carbon development in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Yun; Hao, Fanghua; Meng, Wei; Fu, Jiafeng

    2014-08-01

    China's increasing energy consumption and coal-dominant energy structure have contributed not only to severe environmental pollution, but also to global climate change. This article begins with a brief review of China's primary energy use and associated environmental problems and health risks. To analyze the potential of China's transition to low-carbon development, three scenarios are constructed to simulate energy demand and CO₂ emission trends in China up to 2050 by using the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) model. Simulation results show that with the assumption of an average annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate of 6.45%, total primary energy demand is expected to increase by 63.4%, 48.8% and 12.2% under the Business as Usual (BaU), Carbon Reduction (CR) and Integrated Low Carbon Economy (ILCE) scenarios in 2050 from the 2009 levels. Total energy-related CO₂ emissions will increase from 6.7 billiontons in 2009 to 9.5, 11, 11.6 and 11.2 billiontons; 8.2, 9.2, 9.6 and 9 billiontons; 7.1, 7.4, 7.2 and 6.4 billiontons in 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050 under the BaU, CR and ILCE scenarios, respectively. Total CO₂ emission will drop by 19.6% and 42.9% under the CR and ILCE scenarios in 2050, compared with the BaU scenario. To realize a substantial cut in energy consumption and carbon emissions, China needs to make a long-term low-carbon development strategy targeting further improvement of energy efficiency, optimization of energy structure, deployment of clean coal technology and use of market-based economic instruments like energy/carbon taxation. PMID:25108719

  19. Sustainable Systems Analysis of Production and Transportation Scenarios for Conventional and Bio-based Energy Commodities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doran, E. M.; Golden, J. S.; Nowacek, D. P.

    2013-12-01

    International commerce places unique pressures on the sustainability of water resources and marine environments. System impacts include noise, emissions, and chemical and biological pollutants like introduction of invasive species into key ecosystems. At the same time, maritime trade also enables the sustainability ambition of intragenerational equity in the economy through the global circulation of commodities and manufactured goods, including agricultural, energy and mining resources (UN Trade and Development Board 2013). This paper presents a framework to guide the analysis of the multiple dimensions of the sustainable commerce-ocean nexus. As a demonstration case, we explore the social, economic and environmental aspects of the nexus framework using scenarios for the production and transportation of conventional and bio-based energy commodities. Using coupled LCA and GIS methodologies, we are able to orient the findings spatially for additional insight. Previous work on the sustainable use of marine resources has focused on distinct aspects of the maritime environment. The framework presented here, integrates the anthropogenic use, governance and impacts on the marine and coastal environments with the natural components of the system. A similar framework has been highly effective in progressing the study of land-change science (Turner et al 2007), however modification is required for the unique context of the marine environment. This framework will enable better research integration and planning for sustainability objectives including mitigation and adaptation to climate change, sea level rise, reduced dependence on fossil fuels, protection of critical marine habitat and species, and better management of the ocean as an emerging resource base for the production and transport of commodities and energy across the globe. The framework can also be adapted for vulnerability analysis, resilience studies and to evaluate the trends in production, consumption and

  20. Multi-scenario-based hazard analysis of high temperature extremes experienced in China during 1951-2010

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YIN Zhan'e; YIN Jie; ZHANG Xiaowei

    2013-01-01

    China is physically and socio-economically susceptible to global warming-derived high temperature extremes because of its vast area and high urban population density.This article presents a scenario-based analysis method for high temperature extremes aimed at illustrating the latter's hazardous potential and exposure across China.Based on probability analysis,high temperature extreme scenarios with return periods of 5,10,20,and 50 years were designed,with a high temperature hazard index calculated by integrating two differentially-weighted extreme temperature indices (maximum temperature and high temperature days).To perform the exposure analysis,a land use map was employed to determine the spatial distribution of susceptible human activities under the different scenarios.The results indicate that there are two heat-prone regions and a sub-hotspot occupying a relatively small land area.However,the societal and economic consequences of such an environmental impact upon the North China Plain and middle/lower Yangtze River Basin would be substantial due to the concentration of human activities in these areas.

  1. Analysis of scenarios of nuclear power up to 2050 in Japan based on Fukushima Daiichi accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper calculated long-term energy supply-demand outlook up to 2050 in Japan for long-term scenarios of nuclear power based on Fukushima Daiichi accidents, using integrated energy economic model combined with econometric model and MARKAL (MARKet ALlocations) model. If nuclear power was introduced continuously based on the present basic energy plan, the ratio of nuclear power to total generation increased to about 49% compared with 31% in 2005 but decreased to 42 or 16% if the introduction of nuclear power was halted in a long period and then it encouraged increased of coal-fired power plant. As a result, coal consumption increased to about 23 or 90 Mt and CO2 emission increased to about 60 or 250 Mt with no measures of CO2 emission reduction. If CO2 emission in 2050 should be reduced to about 60% of that in 2005, natural gas consumption increased to about 25 or 65 LNG equivalent Mt in case of increase of natural gas fired power plant due to the halt of nuclear power introduction. This case expanded introduction of CO2 capture and storage technology and increased cost necessary for CO2 reduction (marginal CO2 abatement cost). Measures should be more reinforced with combination of fuel conversion, introduction of renewable energy and expansion of CO2 capture and storage technology. (T. Tanaka)

  2. Scenario based analysis of fire escalation in a gas process plant

    OpenAIRE

    Bjørge, Joachim Søreng

    2013-01-01

    This study takes place on a medium sized gas process plant called reference plant. In this thesis several escalation scenarios, as well as gas dispersion, is evaluated through Kameleon KFX and Vessfire. It has previously been conducted similar escalation studies. However, a normal approach to conduct these studies is to use reference values of a uniform property for heat flux both global and peak, and will only record/evaluate if rupture occurs. In this thesis uses every scenario tran...

  3. Scenario-Based Analysis on Water Resources Implication of Coal Power in Western China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiahai Yuan

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Currently, 58% of coal-fired power generation capacity is located in eastern China, where the demand for electricity is strong. Serious air pollution in China, in eastern regions in particular, has compelled the Chinese government to impose a ban on the new construction of pulverized coal power plants in eastern regions. Meanwhile, rapid economic growth is thirsty for electric power supply. As a response, China planned to build large-scale coal power bases in six western provinces, including Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, Shaanxi, Xinjiang, Ningxia and Gansu. In this paper, the water resource implication of the coal power base planning is addressed. We find that, in a business-as-usual (BAU scenario, water consumption for coal power generation in these six provinces will increase from 1130 million m3 in 2012 to 2085 million m3 in 2020, experiencing nearly a double growth. Such a surge will exert great pressure on water supply and lead to serious water crisis in these already water-starved regions. A strong implication is that the Chinese Government must add water resource constraint as a critical point in its overall sustainable development plan, in addition to energy supply and environment protection. An integrated energy-water resource plan with regionalized environmental carrying capacity as constraints should be developed to settle this puzzle. Several measures are proposed to cope with it, including downsizing coal power in western regions, raising the technical threshold of new coal power plants and implementing retrofitting to the inefficient cooling system, and reengineering the generation process to waterless or recycled means.

  4. Policy Choice for Urban Low-carbon transportation in Beijing: Scenario Analysis Based on LEAP model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yu

    2016-04-01

    Beijing is a fast developing megacity with serious traffic problems, such as high energy consumption, high CO2 emission and traffic congestion. The coming 13th Five-Year Plan for Beijing economic and social development will focus on the low-carbon transportation policy to achieve the urban traffic sustainable development. In order to improve the feasibility of urban low-carbon transportation policies, this paper analyzes the future trends of CO2 emissions from transportation of Beijing. Firstly, five policies scenarios are developed according to the coming Beijing 13th Five-Year Plan, including the "Business As Usual (BAU)", the "Public Transportation Priority(PTP)", the "New Energy Vehicle(NEV)", the "Active Transportation(AT)", the "Private Car Regulation(PCR)" and the "Hybrid Policy(HP)". Then the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System(LEAP model) framework is adopted to estimate CO2 emission under given policies scenarios up to year 2020 and analyze the implications. The results demonstrate that the low-carbon transportation policies can reduce CO2 emission effectively. Specifically, the "Hybrid Policy(HP)" has the best performance. In terms of single policy effect, the "Private Car Regulation(PCR)" comes first followed by the "Public Transportation Priority(PTP)".

  5. Spatially comprehensive data for forestry scenario analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Barth, Andreas

    2007-01-01

    This thesis focuses on the use of forest data for national level policy making. Three major issues were considered: (i) to determine typical requirements of data in forestry scenario analysis, (ii) to evaluate and further develop methods to determine data requirements, and (iii) to develop methods that improve data usability in forestry scenario analysis. Increasingly, the trend is to use spatially comprehensive data as a basis for forestry scenario analysis. Compared to traditional approache...

  6. Scenario-based roadmapping assessing nuclear technology development paths for future nuclear energy system scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nuclear energy may play a significant role in a future sustainable energy mix. The transition from today's nuclear energy system towards a future more sustainable nuclear energy system will be dictated by technology availability, energy market competitiveness and capability to achieve sustainability through the nuclear fuel cycle. Various scenarios have been investigated worldwide each with a diverse set of assumptions on the timing and characteristics of new nuclear energy systems. Scenario-based roadmapping combines the dynamic scenario-analysis of nuclear energy systems' futures with the technology roadmap information published and analysed in various technology assessment reports though integrated within the nuclear technology roadmap Nuclear-Roadmap.net. The advantages of this combination is to allow mutual improvement of scenario analysis and nuclear technology roadmapping providing a higher degree of confidence in the assessment of nuclear energy system futures. This paper provides a description of scenario-based roadmapping based on DANESS and Nuclear-Roadmap.net. (author)

  7. So These Numbers Really Mean Something? A Role Playing Scenario-Based Approach to the Undergraduate Instrumental Analysis Laboratory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grannas, Amanda M.; Lagalante, Anthony F.

    2010-01-01

    A new curricular approach in our undergraduate second-year instrumental analysis laboratory was implemented. Students work collaboratively on scenarios in diverse fields including pharmaceuticals, forensics, gemology, art conservation, and environmental chemistry. Each laboratory section (approximately 12 students) is divided into three groups…

  8. Scenario Based Network Infrastructure Planning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knudsen, Thomas Phillip; Pedersen, Jens Myrup; Madsen, Ole Brun

    2005-01-01

    The paper presents a method for IT infrastructure planning that take into account very long term developments in usages. The method creates a scenario for a final, time independent stage in the planning process. The method abstracts relevant modelling factors from available information...

  9. Scenario-based Training: Director's Cut

    OpenAIRE

    Peeters, M.M.M.; van den Bosch, K.; Meyer, J-J.Ch.; Neerincx, M. A.

    2011-01-01

    Research regarding autonomous learning shows that freeplay does not result in optimal learning. Combining scenario-based training with intelligent agent technology off ers the possibility to create autonomous training enriched with automated adaptive support delivered by a director agent. We conducted an experiment to investigate whether directing training scenarios improves the quality of training. Six instructors rated video fragments of directed and non-directed scenarios in terms of learn...

  10. Scenario analysis for estimating the learning rate of photovoltaic power generation based on learning curve theory in South Korea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    South Korea, as the 9th largest energy consuming in 2013 and the 7th largest greenhouse gas emitting country in 2011, established ‘Low Carbon Green Growth’ as the national vision in 2008, and is announcing various active energy policies that are set to gain the attention of the world. In this paper, we estimated the decrease of photovoltaic power generation cost in Korea based on the learning curve theory. Photovoltaic energy is one of the leading renewable energy sources, and countries all over the world are currently expanding R and D, demonstration and deployment of photovoltaic technology. In order to estimate the learning rate of photovoltaic energy in Korea, both conventional 1FLC (one-factor learning curve), which considers only the cumulative power generation, and 2FLC, which also considers R and D investment were applied. The 1FLC analysis showed that the cost of power generation decreased by 3.1% as the cumulative power generation doubled. The 2FCL analysis presented that the cost decreases by 2.33% every time the cumulative photovoltaic power generation is doubled and by 5.13% every time R and D investment is doubled. Moreover, the effect of R and D investment on photovoltaic technology took after around 3 years, and the depreciation rate of R and D investment was around 20%. - Highlights: • We analyze the learning effects of photovoltaic energy technology in Korea. • In order to calculate the learning rate, we use 1FLC (one-factor learning curve) and 2FLC methods, respectively. • 1FLC method considers only the cumulative power generation. • 2FLC method considers both cumulative power generation and knowledge stock. • We analyze a variety of scenarios by time lag and depreciation rate of R and D investment

  11. Implementation and Analysis of a Wireless Sensor Network-Based Pet Location Monitoring System for Domestic Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erik Aguirre

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The flexibility of new age wireless networks and the variety of sensors to measure a high number of variables, lead to new scenarios where anything can be monitored by small electronic devices, thereby implementing Wireless Sensor Networks (WSN. Thanks to ZigBee, RFID or WiFi networks the precise location of humans or animals as well as some biological parameters can be known in real-time. However, since wireless sensors must be attached to biological tissues and they are highly dispersive, propagation of electromagnetic waves must be studied to deploy an efficient and well-working network. The main goal of this work is to study the influence of wireless channel limitations in the operation of a specific pet monitoring system, validated at physical channel as well as at functional level. In this sense, radio wave propagation produced by ZigBee devices operating at the ISM 2.4 GHz band is studied through an in-house developed 3D Ray Launching simulation tool, in order to analyze coverage/capacity relations for the optimal system selection as well as deployment strategy in terms of number of transceivers and location. Furthermore, a simplified dog model is developed for simulation code, considering not only its morphology but also its dielectric properties. Relevant wireless channel information such as power distribution, power delay profile and delay spread graphs are obtained providing an extensive wireless channel analysis. A functional dog monitoring system is presented, operating over the implemented ZigBee network and providing real time information to Android based devices. The proposed system can be scaled in order to consider different types of domestic pets as well as new user based functionalities.

  12. Implementation and Analysis of a Wireless Sensor Network-Based Pet Location Monitoring System for Domestic Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aguirre, Erik; Lopez-Iturri, Peio; Azpilicueta, Leyre; Astrain, José Javier; Villadangos, Jesús; Santesteban, Daniel; Falcone, Francisco

    2016-01-01

    The flexibility of new age wireless networks and the variety of sensors to measure a high number of variables, lead to new scenarios where anything can be monitored by small electronic devices, thereby implementing Wireless Sensor Networks (WSN). Thanks to ZigBee, RFID or WiFi networks the precise location of humans or animals as well as some biological parameters can be known in real-time. However, since wireless sensors must be attached to biological tissues and they are highly dispersive, propagation of electromagnetic waves must be studied to deploy an efficient and well-working network. The main goal of this work is to study the influence of wireless channel limitations in the operation of a specific pet monitoring system, validated at physical channel as well as at functional level. In this sense, radio wave propagation produced by ZigBee devices operating at the ISM 2.4 GHz band is studied through an in-house developed 3D Ray Launching simulation tool, in order to analyze coverage/capacity relations for the optimal system selection as well as deployment strategy in terms of number of transceivers and location. Furthermore, a simplified dog model is developed for simulation code, considering not only its morphology but also its dielectric properties. Relevant wireless channel information such as power distribution, power delay profile and delay spread graphs are obtained providing an extensive wireless channel analysis. A functional dog monitoring system is presented, operating over the implemented ZigBee network and providing real time information to Android based devices. The proposed system can be scaled in order to consider different types of domestic pets as well as new user based functionalities. PMID:27589751

  13. Implementation and Analysis of a Wireless Sensor Network-Based Pet Location Monitoring System for Domestic Scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aguirre, Erik; Lopez-Iturri, Peio; Azpilicueta, Leyre; Astrain, José Javier; Villadangos, Jesús; Santesteban, Daniel; Falcone, Francisco

    2016-01-01

    The flexibility of new age wireless networks and the variety of sensors to measure a high number of variables, lead to new scenarios where anything can be monitored by small electronic devices, thereby implementing Wireless Sensor Networks (WSN). Thanks to ZigBee, RFID or WiFi networks the precise location of humans or animals as well as some biological parameters can be known in real-time. However, since wireless sensors must be attached to biological tissues and they are highly dispersive, propagation of electromagnetic waves must be studied to deploy an efficient and well-working network. The main goal of this work is to study the influence of wireless channel limitations in the operation of a specific pet monitoring system, validated at physical channel as well as at functional level. In this sense, radio wave propagation produced by ZigBee devices operating at the ISM 2.4 GHz band is studied through an in-house developed 3D Ray Launching simulation tool, in order to analyze coverage/capacity relations for the optimal system selection as well as deployment strategy in terms of number of transceivers and location. Furthermore, a simplified dog model is developed for simulation code, considering not only its morphology but also its dielectric properties. Relevant wireless channel information such as power distribution, power delay profile and delay spread graphs are obtained providing an extensive wireless channel analysis. A functional dog monitoring system is presented, operating over the implemented ZigBee network and providing real time information to Android based devices. The proposed system can be scaled in order to consider different types of domestic pets as well as new user based functionalities. PMID:27589751

  14. Establishment of a maintenance plan based on quantitative analysis in the context of RCM in a JIT production scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper presents a quantitative method for supporting the preparation or review of an equipment maintenance plan in a Just-in-time production scenario. The proposed method includes the following steps: (i) identifying the parts that influence reliability; (ii) surveying the failure rates and times to repair the parts; (iii) classification of parts according to the effect of their failures; (iv) surveying the line occupation parameters; (v) identifying the probability distributions for time to failure, time to repair, and line occupation; (vi) simulating the production and maintenance using the Monte Carlo approach; (vii) conducting a sensitivity analysis concerning variations in demand, MTTF, and MTTR; and (viii) establishing optimized intervals for preventive maintenance. The method is illustrated through an application in a labeling and filling gallons line at a paints and dyes production company. This method allowed the identification of critical parts as it relates to the productive scenario in question. The results can support companies in their decision making regarding the need and/or type of maintenance investment that would best fit an expected demand scenario

  15. A climate profile indicator based comparative analysis of climate change scenarios with regard to maize (Zea mays L.) cultures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dios, N.; Szenteleki, K.; Ferenczy, A.; Petranyl, G. [Corvinus Univ. of Budapest (Hungary). Dept. of Mathematics and Informatics; Hufnagel, L. [Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Budapest (Hungary). Adaptation to Climate Change Research Group

    2009-07-01

    Recent research results let us conclude that climate change might have a significant effect on the yield of wheat, barley, rye, potato and maize, and the borderlines of their area of cultivation might shift 100--150 kilometers to the north. The possible mass occurrence of new aggressive pest, pathogen and weed species in Hungary might also create a problem from plant protection. Maize is one of the most important fodder-plants. Hungary has close to the largest total cultivating area in Europe. Maize is used in many ways, thus being of outstanding economic importance. In Hungary the conditions of maize cultivation are -- except for dry years -- quite favorable in most cultural regions and complex cultivating technologies are available. It also might gain a significant role in the line of new environment-friendly alternative sources of energy. For these reasons, it is important to examine the influence of meteorological factors on maize ecosystems and this examination should include as many climate change scenarios and as long a time series as possible. Using ecological data compiled from scientific literature on pest, pathogen and weed species characteristic in maize cultures in Hungary, we defined monthly climate profile indicators and applied them to complete a comparative analysis of the historical and modelled climate change scenario meteorological data of the city of Debrecen. Our results call attention to a drastic decline of the competitive ability of maize as compared to several C{sub 4} and especially C{sub 3} plants. According to the stricter scenarios, the frequency of potential pest and pathogen damage emergency situations will grow significantly by the end of the century.

  16. Scenarios Analysis of the Energies’ Consumption and Carbon Emissions in China Based on a Dynamic CGE Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuanying Chi

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the development trends and variation characteristics of China’s economy, energy consumption and carbon emissions from 2007 to 2030, and the impacts on China’s economic growth, energy consumption, and carbon emissions under the carbon tax policy scenarios, based on the dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE model. The results show that during the simulation period, China’s economy will keep a relatively high growth rate, but the growth rate will slow down under the benchmark scenario. The energy consumption intensity and the carbon emissions intensity per unit of Gross Domestic Product (GDP will continually decrease. The energy consumption structure and industrial structure will gradually optimize. With the economic growth, the total energy consumption will constantly increase, and the carbon dioxide emissions are still large, and the situation of energy-saving and emission-reduction is still serious. The carbon tax is very important for energy-saving and emission-reduction and energy consumption structure optimization, and the effect of the carbon tax on GDP is small. If the carbon tax could be levied and the enterprise income tax could be reduced at the same time, the dual goals of reducing energy consumption and carbon emissions and increasing the GDP growth can be achieved. Improving the technical progress level of clean power while implementing a carbon tax policy is very meaningful to optimize energy consumption structure and reduce the carbon emissions, but it has some offsetting effect to reduce energy consumption.

  17. Scenario analysis for supply chain integration in container shipping

    OpenAIRE

    Lam, J.S.L.; Van de Voorde, E.

    2011-01-01

    Competition in the business world nowadays is largely between supply chains, rather than individual players only. The same situation exists in container shipping. The study looks into container shipping from an integrated perspective and investigates the nature and level of supply chain integration in container shipping. Based on empirical examinations of the world's top 30 container shipping lines, a scenario analysis is conducted. The paper aims to present the scenario analysis for examinin...

  18. Computational Scenario-based Capability Planning

    CERN Document Server

    Abbass, Hussein; Dam, Helen; Baker, Stephen; Whitacre, James M; Sarker, Ruhul; 10.1145/1389095.1389378

    2009-01-01

    Scenarios are pen-pictures of plausible futures, used for strategic planning. The aim of this investigation is to expand the horizon of scenario-based planning through computational models that are able to aid the analyst in the planning process. The investigation builds upon the advances of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) to create a novel, flexible and customizable computational capability-based planning methodology that is practical and theoretically sound. We will show how evolutionary computation, in particular evolutionary multi-objective optimization, can play a central role - both as an optimizer and as a source for innovation.

  19. Nuclear Futures Analysis and Scenario Building

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This LDRD project created and used advanced analysis capabilities to postulate scenarios and identify issues, externalities, and technologies associated with future ''things nuclear''. ''Things nuclear'' include areas pertaining to nuclear weapons, nuclear materials, and nuclear energy, examined in the context of future domestic and international environments. Analysis tools development included adaptation and expansion of energy, environmental, and economics (E3) models to incorporate a robust description of the nuclear fuel cycle (both current and future technology pathways), creation of a beginning proliferation risk model (coupled to the (E3) model), and extension of traditional first strike stability models to conditions expected to exist in the future (smaller force sizes, multipolar engagement environments, inclusion of actual and latent nuclear weapons (capability)). Accomplishments include scenario development for regional and global nuclear energy, the creation of a beginning nuclear architecture designed to improve the proliferation resistance and environmental performance of the nuclear fuel cycle, and numerous results for future nuclear weapons scenarios

  20. Sensitivity analysis of scenario models for operational risk Advanced Measurement Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Chaudhary, Dinesh

    2014-01-01

    Scenario Analysis (SA) plays a key role in determination of operational risk capital under Basel II Advanced Measurement Approach. However, operational risk capital based on scenario data may exhibit high sensitivity or wrong-way sensitivity to scenario inputs. In this paper, we first discuss scenario generation using quantile approach and parameter estimation using quantile matching. Then we use single-loss approximation (SLA) to examine sensitivity of scenario based capital to scenario inputs.

  1. Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joao M. Goncalves

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Personal information is increasingly gathered and used for providing services tailored to user preferences, but the datasets used to provide such functionality can represent serious privacy threats if not appropriately protected. Work in privacy-preserving data publishing targeted privacy guarantees that protect against record re-identification, by making records indistinguishable, or sensitive attribute value disclosure, by introducing diversity or noise in the sensitive values. However, most approaches fail in the high-dimensional case, and the ones that don't introduce a utility cost incompatible with tailored recommendation scenarios. This paper aims at a sensible trade-off between privacy and the benefits of tailored recommendations, in the context of privacy-preserving data publishing. We empirically demonstrate that significant privacy improvements can be achieved at a utility cost compatible with tailored recommendation scenarios, using a simple partition-based sanitization method.

  2. Experiments, Passive Observation and Scenario Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hoover, Kevin D.; Juselius, Katarina

    that he develops in his famous monograph, The Probability Approach in Econometrics (1944). We show how, once the details of the analogy are systematically understood, the experimental analogy can be used to shed light on theory-consistent cointegrated vector autoregression (CVAR) scenario analysis. CVAR...

  3. Scenario-based Training: Director's Cut

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Peeters, M.M.M.; Van den Bosch, K.; Meyer, J-J.Ch.; Neerincx, M.A.

    2011-01-01

    Research regarding autonomous learning shows that freeplay does not result in optimal learning. Combining scenario-based training with intelligent agent technology off ers the possibility to create autonomous training enriched with automated adaptive support delivered by a director agent. We conduct

  4. Scenario-based table top simulations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Broberg, Ole; Edwards, Kasper; Nielsen, J.;

    2012-01-01

    This study developed and tested a scenario-based table top simulation method in a user-driven innovation setting. A team of researchers worked together with a user group of five medical staff members from the existing clinic. Table top simulations of a new clinic were carried out in a simple mode...... including patient scenarios, LEGO figures, shoeboxes, and cardboard. The results indicated that table top simulations is a simple, cheap and powerful tool to generate and test innovative conceptual solutions in the early stages of a design process....

  5. Sensitivity analysis on fuel scenario associated magnitudes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garcia Martinez, M.; Alvarez-Velarde, F.

    2014-07-01

    Nuclear fuel cycle scenario analyses are needed as a support for policy makers in terms of sustainability, fuel diversity, security of supply, and social and environmental effects. These analyses are usually aimed to the study of the impact of certain hypotheses on some fuel cycle indicators, without considering the uncertainties on those hypotheses. The expert group of the NEA/OECD on Advanced Fuel Cycle Scenarios, where this work is framed, is devoted to fill this gap, laying the foundations for deep analysis of the sensibilities on fuel cycle indicators. (Author)

  6. [Environmental management: critical analysis, scenarios and challenges].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porto, Marcelo Firpo de Souza; Schütz, Gabriel Eduardo

    2012-06-01

    This article discusses the limits, alternatives and challenges of environmental management in contemporary globalized capitalist societies. It is based on a critical analysis supported by authors from social sciences, political ecology and public health. To this end, we systematize the meaning of hegemonic environmental management in terms of eco-efficiency and its limits to tackle environmental risks and construct democratic processes and societies. We developed four ideal scenarios involving possible combinations of environmental management and democracy. This model served as a base, together with academic studies and the theoretical and militant experience of the authors, for a reflection on the current characteristics and future trends of environmental management and democracy, with emphasis on the reality of Latin America, specifically Brazil. Lastly, we discuss possibilities for social transformation taking into consideration the contradictions and emancipatory alternatives resulting from confrontations between hegemonic tendencies of the market and counter-hegemonic utopias and social movements. The latter assume principles of environmental justice, economic solidarity, agro-ecology and sustainability as well as the construction of new epistemologies.

  7. A critical analysis of the NegaWatt scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The author proposes a rather radical critical analysis of the NegaWatt scenario which is mainly based on the development of the use of solid and liquid biomass produced by forests and farms, and of some marginal resources like wood and urban wastes. He shows that wood resources in France are not sufficient as part of the wood is used for construction. A further exploitation of wood would lead to a dramatic increase of costs. He shows that the scenario overestimates the available wood in France, and moreover, that the promoters of the scenario overstep the physical, biological, social and economic limits of the real world of agriculture

  8. Toward Interactive Scenario Analysis and Exploration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gayle, Thomas R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). Interactive Systems, Simulations, and Analysis; Summers, Kenneth Lee [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). Interactive Systems, Simulations, and Analysis; Jungels, John [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). Interactive Systems, Simulations, and Analysis; Oppel III, Fred J. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). Interactive Systems, Simulations, and Analysis

    2015-01-01

    As Modeling and Simulation (M&S) tools have matured, their applicability and importance have increased across many national security challenges. In particular, they provide a way to test how something may behave without the need to do real world testing. However, current and future changes across several factors including capabilities, policy, and funding are driving a need for rapid response or evaluation in ways that many M&S tools cannot address. Issues around large data, computational requirements, delivery mechanisms, and analyst involvement already exist and pose significant challenges. Furthermore, rising expectations, rising input complexity, and increasing depth of analysis will only increase the difficulty of these challenges. In this study we examine whether innovations in M&S software coupled with advances in ''cloud'' computing and ''big-data'' methodologies can overcome many of these challenges. In particular, we propose a simple, horizontally-scalable distributed computing environment that could provide the foundation (i.e. ''cloud'') for next-generation M&S-based applications based on the notion of ''parallel multi-simulation''. In our context, the goal of parallel multi- simulation is to consider as many simultaneous paths of execution as possible. Therefore, with sufficient resources, the complexity is dominated by the cost of single scenario runs as opposed to the number of runs required. We show the feasibility of this architecture through a stable prototype implementation coupled with the Umbra Simulation Framework [6]. Finally, we highlight the utility through multiple novel analysis tools and by showing the performance improvement compared to existing tools.

  9. Performance analysis of communication links based on VCSEL and silicon photonics technology for high-capacity data-intensive scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boletti, A; Boffi, P; Martelli, P; Ferrario, M; Martinelli, M

    2015-01-26

    To face the increased demand for bandwidth, cost-effectiveness and simplicity of future Ethernet data communications, a comparison between two different solutions based on directly-modulated VCSEL sources and Silicon Photonics technologies is carried out. Also by exploiting 4-PAM modulation, the transmission of 50-Gb/s and beyond capacity per channel is analyzed by means of BER performance. Applications for optical backplane, very short reach and in case of client-optics networks and intra and inter massive data centers communications (up to 10 km) are taken into account. A comparative analysis based on the power consumption is also proposed.

  10. Narrative scenario development based on cross-impact analysis for the evaluation of global-warming mitigation options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Social, technological, economic and environmental issues should be considered comprehensively for the evaluation of global-warming mitigation options. Existing integrated assessment models include assessment of quantitative factors; however, these models do not explicitly consider interactions among qualitative factors in the background - for example, introductions of nuclear power stations interact with social acceptability. In this paper, we applied a technological forecasting method - the cross-impact method - which explicitly deals with the relationships among relevant factors, and we then developed narrative scenarios having consistency with qualitative social contexts. An example of developed scenarios in 2050, assuming the global population and the gross domestic product are the same as those of the A1 scenario of the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, tells us that: (1) the Internet will be extensively used in all regions; (2) the global unified market will appear; (3) regional cultures will tend to converge; (4) long-term investments (of more than 30 years) will become difficult and therefore nuclear-power stations will not increase so remarkably; (5) the self-sufficient supply and diversification of primary energy sources will not progress so rapidly; and (6) due to the widespread use of the Internet, people will be more educated in global environmental issues and environmental costs will be more socially acceptable

  11. Reality based scenarios facilitate knowledge network development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manning, J; Broughton, V; McConnell, E A

    1995-03-01

    The challenge in nursing education is to create a learning environment that enables students to learn new knowledge, access previously acquired information from a variety of disciplines, and apply this newly constructed knowledge to the complex and constantly changing world of practice. Faculty at the University of South Australia, School of Nursing, City Campus describe the use of reality based scenarios to acquire domain-specific knowledge and develop well connected associative knowledge networks, both of which facilitate theory based practice and the student's transition to the role of registered nurse.

  12. A Methodology For Flood Vulnerability Analysis In Complex Flood Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Figueiredo, R.; Martina, M. L. V.; Dottori, F.

    2015-12-01

    Nowadays, flood risk management is gaining importance in order to mitigate and prevent flood disasters, and consequently the analysis of flood vulnerability is becoming a key research topic. In this paper, we propose a methodology for large-scale analysis of flood vulnerability. The methodology is based on a GIS-based index, which considers local topography, terrain roughness and basic information about the flood scenario to reproduce the diffusive behaviour of floodplain flow. The methodology synthetizes the spatial distribution of index values into maps and curves, used to represent the vulnerability in the area of interest. Its application allows for considering different levels of complexity of flood scenarios, from localized flood defence failures to complex hazard scenarios involving river reaches. The components of the methodology are applied and tested in two floodplain areas in Northern Italy recently affected by floods. The results show that the methodology can provide an original and valuable insight of flood vulnerability variables and processes.

  13. INFORMATION SYSTEMS: NEW ONTOLOGIES-BASED SCENARIOS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Susana Herrea

    2006-11-01

    Full Text Available While ontology is still a fertile area of research in the field of Philosophy, Ontologies currently stands for research, development, and application fields in disciplines related with computing, information and knowledge. Information Systems (IS are essentially knowledge artifacts that capture and represent knowledge in certain domains. Considering that ontologies is generally used to specify and communicate knowledge in a domain, and the growing recognition that ontological principles and concepts can be fruitfully applied to the IS field, one could say that an IS has its own implicit ontology when attributing meaning to the symbols used. Explicitly, however, ontology may play different roles in an IS. The scenarios presented in this article allow visualizing the roles that ontologies are now playing or will play in the near future in IS. There is a wide range of uses for ontologies in the different scenarios - they vary from the conceptual analysis of IS modeling techniques to their use as support for IS design, development and application. Our knowledge on the roles played by ontologies in IS is expected to be expanded.

  14. Risk analysis of dust explosion scenarios using Bayesian networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Zhi; Khakzad, Nima; Khan, Faisal; Amyotte, Paul

    2015-02-01

    In this study, a methodology has been proposed for risk analysis of dust explosion scenarios based on Bayesian network. Our methodology also benefits from a bow-tie diagram to better represent the logical relationships existing among contributing factors and consequences of dust explosions. In this study, the risks of dust explosion scenarios are evaluated, taking into account common cause failures and dependencies among root events and possible consequences. Using a diagnostic analysis, dust particle properties, oxygen concentration, and safety training of staff are identified as the most critical root events leading to dust explosions. The probability adaptation concept is also used for sequential updating and thus learning from past dust explosion accidents, which is of great importance in dynamic risk assessment and management. We also apply the proposed methodology to a case study to model dust explosion scenarios, to estimate the envisaged risks, and to identify the vulnerable parts of the system that need additional safety measures. PMID:25264172

  15. Scenarios in society, society in scenarios: toward a social scientific analysis of storyline-driven environmental modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garb, Yaakov [Jacob Blaustein Institutes for Desert Research, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Midreshet Ben-Gurion, 84990 (Israel); Pulver, Simone [Watson Institute for International Studies, Brown University, Providence, RI 02912 (United States); VanDeveer, Stacy D [Department of Political Science, University of New Hamsphire, Durham, NH 03824 (United States)], E-mail: stacy.vandeveer@unh.edu

    2008-10-15

    Scenario analysis, an approach to thinking about alternative futures based on storyline-driven modeling, has become increasingly common and important in attempts to understand and respond to the impacts of human activities on natural systems at a variety of scales. The construction of scenarios is a fundamentally social activity, yet social scientific perspectives have rarely been brought to bear on it. Indeed, there is a growing imbalance between the increasing technical sophistication of the modeling elements of scenarios and the continued simplicity of our understanding of the social origins, linkages, and implications of the narratives to which they are coupled. Drawing on conceptual and methodological tools from science and technology studies, sociology and political science, we offer an overview of what a social scientific analysis of scenarios might include. In particular, we explore both how scenarios intervene in social microscale and macroscale contexts and how aspects of such contexts are embedded in scenarios, often implicitly. Analyzing the social 'work' of scenarios (i) can enhance the understanding of scenario developers and modeling practitioners of the knowledge production processes in which they participate and (ii) can improve the utility of scenario products as decision-support tools to actual, rather than imagined, decision-makers.

  16. The role of energy efficiency in the framework of the EU energy and climate strategy a policy-based scenario analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lechtenboehmer, Stefan; Thomas, Stefan; Zeiss, Christoph (Wuppertal Inst. for Climate, Environment, Energy, Wuppertal (Germany))

    2009-07-01

    Based on a comprehensive scenario analysis of the EU's GHG emissions by 2020, we show that the 20% energy savings target set in the Action Plan 'Doing more with less' in 2006 is still the most significant and thus indispensable strategy element within an ambitious EU climate and energy strategy targeting at a 30% reduction of GHG emissions by 20201. The scenario analysis provides a sector by sector projection of potential future energy use and GHG emissions, combined with a detailed policy analysis of the core policies on energy efficiency by the EU and its Member States taken from current research results by the authors and others. Consequently the paper identifies and quantifies the current implementation deficit in the EU and shows that, despite of sufficient targets, implementation is still significantly lacking in almost all fields of energy efficiency. Some, e.g. transport sector and buildings, are still substantially far from receiving the necessary political impetus. The paper also demonstrates co-benefits of a strong energy efficiency strategy, e.g. the achievability of the targets of the RES directive, which crucially depends on a strong efficiency policy. We conclude that the efforts of the energy efficiency policy of the EU and its Member States have to be significantly intensified. As proposed by the EU in case that other developed and key developing countries take up comparable targets in order to fulfil its role in the climate and energy strategy. To achieve this, we offer an analysis of the current weaknesses of EU energy efficiency policy and derive recommendations on how the EU can still reach its targets for 2020.

  17. Model-based scenarios of Mediterranean droughts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Weiß

    2007-11-01

    Full Text Available This study examines the change in current 100-year hydrological drought frequencies in the Mediterranean in comparison to the 2070s as simulated by the global model WaterGAP. The analysis considers socio-economic and climate changes as indicated by the IPCC scenarios A2 and B2 and the global general circulation model ECHAM4. Under these conditions today's 100-year drought is estimated to occur 10 times more frequently in the future over a large part of the Northern Mediterranean while in North Africa, today's 100-year drought will occur less frequently. Water abstractions are shown to play a minor role in comparison to the impact of climate change, but can intensify the situation.

  18. Scenario

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vidal, Rene Victor Valqui

    1996-01-01

    The main purpose of this paper is to give a synthetic presentation of hte well-known scenario method. Different schools and traditions will be shortly presented. In addition guidelines for hte use of this method will be discussed. Finally, applications will also be outlined as well as some critic...

  19. Analysis of fast reactor scenario with different conversion ratios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Korean fast reactor scenarios have been analyzed for various kinds of conversion ratio by the DANESS system dynamic analysis code. The once-through fuel cycle analysis was modeled based on the Korean 'National Energy Basic Plan' up to 2030 and a postulated nuclear demand growth rate until 2150. The fast reactor scenario analysis has been performed for three kinds of conversion ratios such as 0.3, 0.61 and 1.0. Through the calculations, the nuclear reactor deployment scenario, front-end cycle, back-end cycle, and long-term heat load have been investigated. From the once-through results, it is shown that the nuclear power demand would be ∼70 GWe and the total amount of the spent fuel accumulated by 2150 would be ∼168000 t. Also, the fast reactor scenario analysis results show that the spent fuel inventory and out-pile transuranic element can be reduced by increasing the fast reactor conversion ratio. Furthermore, the long-term heat load of spent fuel decreases with increasing the conversion ratio. However, it is known that the deployment of a fast reactor of low conversion ratio does not much reduce the spent fuel and out-pile transuranic element inventory due to the fast reactor deployment limitation which is related to the availability of transuranic elements. (author)

  20. Addressing an Uncertain Future Using Scenario Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Siddiqui, Afzal S.; Marnay, Chris

    2006-12-15

    The Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) has had a longstanding goal of introducing uncertainty into the analysis it routinely conducts in compliance with the Government Performance and Results Act (GPRA) and for strategic management purposes. The need to introduce some treatment of uncertainty arises both because it would be good general management practice, and because intuitively many of the technologies under development by EERE have a considerable advantage in an uncertain world. For example, an expected kWh output from a wind generator in a future year, which is not exposed to volatile and unpredictable fuel prices, should be truly worth more than an equivalent kWh from an alternative fossil fuel fired technology. Indeed, analysts have attempted to measure this value by comparing the prices observed in fixed-price natural gas contracts compared to ones in which buyers are exposed to market prices (see Bolinger, Wiser, and Golove and (2004)). In addition to the routine reasons for exploring uncertainty given above, the history of energy markets appears to have exhibited infrequent, but troubling, regime shifts, i.e., historic turning points at which the center of gravity or fundamental nature of the system appears to have abruptly shifted. Figure 1 below shows an estimate of how the history of natural gas fired generating costs has evolved over the last three decades. The costs shown incorporate both the well-head gas price and an estimate of how improving generation technology has gradually tended to lower costs. The purpose of this paper is to explore scenario analysis as a method for introducing uncertainty into EERE's forecasting in a manner consistent with the preceding observation. The two questions are how could it be done, and what is its academic basis, if any. Despite the interest in uncertainty methods, applying them poses some major hurdles because of the heavy reliance of EERE on forecasting tools that are deterministic in

  1. Future Scenarios for Fission Based Reactors

    Science.gov (United States)

    David, S.

    2005-04-01

    The coming century will see the exhaustion of standard fossil fuels, coal, gas and oil, which today represent 75% of the world energy production. Moreover, their use will have caused large-scale emission of greenhouse gases (GEG), and induced global climate change. This problem is exacerbated by a growing world energy demand. In this context, nuclear power is the only GEG-free energy source available today capable of responding significantly to this demand. Some scenarios consider a nuclear energy production of around 5 Gtoe in 2050, wich would represent a 20% share of the world energy supply. Present reactors generate energy from the fission of U-235 and require around 200 tons of natural Uranium to produce 1GWe.y of energy, equivalent to the fission of one ton of fissile material. In a scenario of a significant increase in nuclear energy generation, these standard reactors will consume the whole of the world's estimated Uranium reserves in a few decades. However, natural Uranium or Thorium ore, wich are not themselves fissile, can produce a fissile material after a neutron capture ( 239Pu and 233U respectively). In a breeder reactor, the mass of fissile material remains constant, and the fertile ore is the only material to be consumed. In this case, only 1 ton of natural ore is needed to produce 1GWe.y. Thus, the breeding concept allows optimal use of fertile ore and development of sustainable nuclear energy production for several thousand years into the future. Different sustainable nuclear reactor concepts are studied in the international forum "generation IV". Different types of coolant (Na, Pb and He) are studied for fast breeder reactors based on the Uranium cycle. The thermal Thorium cycle requires the use of a liquid fuel, which can be reprocessed online in order to extract the neutron poisons. This paper presents these different sustainable reactors, based on the Uranium or Thorium fuel cycles and will compare the different options in term of fissile

  2. Electricity planning in Japan by 2030 through scenario analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Under continuing policies of the mitigation of GHG (Green House Gases) emission, it is crucial to consider scenarios for Japan to realize a safe and clean future electricity system after the Fukushima nuclear accident. The development plans of nuclear power and renewable energy - mainly PV and wind power - need to be reconsidered. Therefore, in the present study, three electricity supply scenarios in 2030 are proposed according to different future nuclear power development strategies: (1) negative nuclear power; (2) conservative nuclear power; and (3) active pursuit of nuclear power. On the other side, three electricity demand scenarios are also proposed considering energy saving. The purpose of the study is to propose electricity supply systems with maximum renewable energy penetration under different nuclear power development strategies and demand situations through scenario analysis. The scenario analysis is conducted using an input-output hour-by-hour simulation model subject to constraints from technological, economic and environmental perspectives. The obtained installed capacity mix, power generation mix and CO2 emissions of the scenarios were compared and analyzed with each other and with historical data. The results show that (1) penetration level of renewable energy is subject to the share of nuclear power as base load; (2) it is very difficult to remove nuclear power absolutely from the electricity system even when a high level of penetration of renewable energy is realized; (3) high level penetration of renewable energy can reduce the dependence on nuclear and thermal power, but there is a need for more flexible power sources to absorb fluctuations; (4) CO2 emissions reduction compared to 1990 levels can be readily achieved with the help of renewable energy, nuclear power and energy saving in 2030. This is a revised version of the paper that was published in [1]. (author)

  3. A stochastic analysis of the impact of input parameters on profit of Australian pasture-based dairy farms under variable carbon price scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Highlights: • Two different pasture-based dairy feeding systems were evaluated. • The home-grown forage system outperformed the traditional pasture-based system. • Probability of achieving $200,000 income was reduced by imposition of a carbon tax. • Different farming systems will respond to change differently. • The ‘best choice’ for each individual farm is subjective. - Abstract: The imposition of a carbon tax in the economy will have indirect impacts on dairy farmers in Australia. Although there is a great deal of information available regarding mitigation strategies both in Australia and internationally, there seems to be a lack of research investigating the variable prices of carbon-based emissions on dairy farm operating profits in Australia. In this study, a stochastic analysis comparing the uncertainty in income in response to different prices on carbon-based emissions was conducted. The impact of variability in pasture consumption and variable prices of concentrates and hay on farm profitability was also investigated. The two different feeding systems examined were a ryegrass pasture-based system (RM) and a complementary forage-based system (CF). Imposing a carbon price ($20–$60) and not changing the systems reduced the farm operating profits by 28.4% and 25.6% in the RM and CF systems, respectively compared to a scenario where no carbon price was imposed. Different farming businesses will respond to variability in the rapidly changing operating environment such as fluctuations in pasture availability, price of purchased feeds and price of milk or carbon emissions differently. Further, in case there is a carbon price imposed for GHG emissions emanated from dairy farming systems, changing from pasture-based to more complex feeding systems incorporating home-grown double crops may reduce the reductions in farm operating profits. There is opportunity for future studies to focus on the impacts of different mitigation strategies and policy

  4. Scenario Prediction and Analysis of Urban Growth Using SLEUTH Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    FENG Hui-Hui; LIU Hui-Ping; L(U) Ying

    2012-01-01

    Scenario prediction was introduced to better understand urban dynamics and to support urban planning.Taking the Dongguan central urban area of the Pearl River Delta,China as an example,three urban development scenarios,historical trend (HT) scenario,forest protection (FP) scenario,and growth restriction (GR) scenario,were designed and transplanted into the SLEUTH model through the parameter self-modification method.The quantitative analysis results showed that the urban area would expand continuously from 2003 to 2030 under the HT scenario.More land resources would be saved under the GR scenario than FP scenario.Furthermore,the urban growth under the HT and FP scenarios would come to a steady state by 2020,while this deadline of the GR scenario would be postponed to 2025.The spatial pattern analysis using five spatial metrics,class area,number of patches,largest patch index,edge density,and contagion index,showed that under all the scenarios,the urban patches would become bigger and the form would become more compact,and the urban form under the GR scenario would be the smallest and most heterogeneous.These demonstrated that the GR scenario was more effective in meeting the goal of land protection and sustainable development for the study area.

  5. Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merriam, Eric R; Petty, J Todd; Strager, Michael P

    2016-01-01

    There is a critical need for tools and methodologies capable of managing aquatic systems within heavily impacted watersheds. Current efforts often fall short as a result of an inability to quantify and predict complex cumulative effects of current and future land use scenarios at relevant spatial scales. The goal of this manuscript is to provide methods for conducting a targeted watershed assessment that enables resource managers to produce landscape-based cumulative effects models for use within a scenario analysis management framework. Sites are first selected for inclusion within the watershed assessment by identifying sites that fall along independent gradients and combinations of known stressors. Field and laboratory techniques are then used to obtain data on the physical, chemical, and biological effects of multiple land use activities. Multiple linear regression analysis is then used to produce landscape-based cumulative effects models for predicting aquatic conditions. Lastly, methods for incorporating cumulative effects models within a scenario analysis framework for guiding management and regulatory decisions (e.g., permitting and mitigation) within actively developing watersheds are discussed and demonstrated for 2 sub-watersheds within the mountaintop mining region of central Appalachia. The watershed assessment and management approach provided herein enables resource managers to facilitate economic and development activity while protecting aquatic resources and producing opportunity for net ecological benefits through targeted remediation. PMID:27501287

  6. Wiki Based Collaborative Learning in Interuniversity Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katzlinger, Elisabeth; Herzog, Michael A.

    2014-01-01

    In business education advanced collaboration skills and media literacy are important for surviving in a globalized business where virtual communication between enterprises is part of the day-by-day business. To transform these global working situations into higher education, a learning scenario between two universities in Germany and Austria was…

  7. Flooding Capability for River-based Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, Curtis L. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Prescott, Steven [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Ryan, Emerald [Idaho State Univ., Pocatello, ID (United States); Calhoun, Donna [Boise State Univ., ID (United States); Sampath, Ramprasad [Centroid Labs., Los Angeles, CA (United States); Anderson, S. Danielle [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Casteneda, Cody [Boise State Univ., ID (United States)

    2015-10-01

    This report describes the initial investigation into modeling and simulation tools for application of riverine flooding representation as part of the Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) Pathway external hazards evaluations. The report provides examples of different flooding conditions and scenarios that could impact river and watershed systems. Both 2D and 3D modeling approaches are described.

  8. Analysis of five simulated straw harvest scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sokhansanj, Shahabaddine [ORNL; Turhollow Jr, Anthony F [ORNL; Stephen, Jamie [University of British Columbia, Vancouver; Stumborg, Mark [AAFC; Fenton, James [Fenton & Associates; Mani, Sudhagar [University of Georgia

    2008-01-01

    Almost 36 million tonnes (t) of cereal grains are harvested annually on more than 16 million hectares (ha) in Canada. The net straw production varies year by year depending upon weather patterns, crop fertility, soil conservation measures, harvest method, and plant variety. The net yield of straw, after discounting for soil conservation, averages approximately 2.5 dry (d)t ha-1. Efficient equipment is needed to collect and package the material as a feedstock for industrial applications. This paper investigates the costs, energy input, and emissions from power equipment used for harvesting straw. Five scenarios were investigated: (1) large square bales, (2) round bales, (3) large compacted stacks (loafs), (4) dried chops, and (5) wet chops. The baled or loafed biomass is stacked next to the farm. Dry chop is collected in a large pile and wet chop is ensiled. The baling and stacking cost was $21.47 dt-1 (dry tonne), with little difference between round and large square baling. Loafing was the cheapest option at $17.08 dt-1. Dry chop and piling was $23.90 dt-1 and wet chop followed by ensiling was $59.75 dt-1. A significant portion of the wet chop cost was in ensiling. Energy input and emissions were proportional to the costs for each system, except for loafing, which required more energy input than the baling systems. As a fraction of the energy content of biomass (roughly 16 GJ dt-1), the energy input ranged from 1.2% for baling to 3.2% for ensiling. Emissions from the power equipment ranged from 20.3 kg CO2e dt-1 to more than 40 kg CO2e dt-1. A sensitivity analysis on the effect of yield on collection costs showed that a 33% increase in yield reduced the cost by 20%. Similarly a sensitivity analysis on weather conditions showed that a 10oC cooler climate extended the harvest period by 5-10 days whereas a 10oC warmer climate shortened the harvest period by 2-3 days.

  9. Scenarios Based on Shared Socioeconomic Pathway Assumptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edmonds, J.

    2013-12-01

    A set of new scenarios is being developed by the international scientific community as part of a larger program that was articulated in Moss, et al. (2009), published in Nature. A long series of meetings including climate researchers drawn from the climate modeling, impacts, adaptation and vulnerability (IAV) and integrated assessment modeling (IAM) communities have led to the development of a set of five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), which define the state of human and natural societies at a macro scale over the course of the 21st century without regard to climate mitigation or change. SSPs were designed to explore a range of possible futures consistent with greater or lesser challenges to mitigation and challenges to adaptation. They include a narrative storyline and a set of quantified measures--e.g. demographic and economic profiles--that define the high-level state of society as it evolves over the 21st century under the assumption of no significant climate feedback. SSPs can be used to develop quantitative scenarios of human Earth systems using IAMs. IAMs produce information about greenhouse gas emissions, energy systems, the economy, agriculture and land use. Each set of SSPs will have a different human Earth system realization for each IAM. Five groups from the IAM community have begun to explore the implications of SSP assumptions for emissions, energy, economy, agriculture and land use. We report the quantitative results of initial experiments from those groups. A major goal of the Moss, et al. strategy was to enable the use of CMIP5 climate model ensemble products for IAV research. CMIP5 climate scenarios used four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, defined in terms of radiative forcing in the year 2100: 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 Wm-2. There is no reason to believe that the SSPs will generate year 2100 levels of radiative forcing that correspond to the four RCP levels, though it is important that at least one SSP produce a

  10. Control Strategy Scenarios for the Alien Lionfish Pterois volitans in Chinchorro Bank (Mexican Caribbean): Based on Semi-Quantitative Loop Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Marco Ortiz; Fabián Rodriguez-Zaragoza; Brenda Hermosillo-Nuñez; Ferenc Jordán

    2015-01-01

    Ecological and eco-social network models were constructed with different levels of complexity in order to represent and evaluate management strategies for controlling the alien species Pterois volitans in Chinchorro bank (Mexican Caribbean). Levins´s loop analysis was used as a methodological framework for assessing the local stability (considered as a component of sustainability) of the modeled management interventions represented by various scenarios. The results provided by models of diffe...

  11. The scenario-based generalization of radiation therapy margins

    CERN Document Server

    Fredriksson, Albin

    2015-01-01

    We give a scenario-based treatment plan optimization formulation that is equivalent to planning with geometric margins if the scenario doses are calculated using the static dose cloud approximation. If the scenario doses are instead calculated more accurately, then our formulation provides a novel robust planning method that overcomes many of the difficulties associated with previous scenario-based robust planning methods. In particular, our method protects only against uncertainties that can occur in practice, it gives a sharp dose fall-off outside high dose regions, and it avoids underdosage of the target in ``easy'' scenarios. The method shares the benefits of the previous scenario-based robust planning methods over geometric margins for applications where the static dose cloud approximation is inaccurate, such as irradiation with few fields and irradiation with ion beams. These properties are demonstrated on a suite of phantom cases planned for treatment with scanned proton beams subject to systematic set...

  12. Reliability Analysis of a Green Roof Under Different Storm Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    William, R. K.; Stillwell, A. S.

    2015-12-01

    Urban environments continue to face the challenges of localized flooding and decreased water quality brought on by the increasing amount of impervious area in the built environment. Green infrastructure provides an alternative to conventional storm sewer design by using natural processes to filter and store stormwater at its source. However, there are currently few consistent standards available in North America to ensure that installed green infrastructure is performing as expected. This analysis offers a method for characterizing green roof failure using a visual aid commonly used in earthquake engineering: fragility curves. We adapted the concept of the fragility curve based on the efficiency in runoff reduction provided by a green roof compared to a conventional roof under different storm scenarios. We then used the 2D distributed surface water-groundwater coupled model MIKE SHE to model the impact that a real green roof might have on runoff in different storm events. We then employed a multiple regression analysis to generate an algebraic demand model that was input into the Matlab-based reliability analysis model FERUM, which was then used to calculate the probability of failure. The use of reliability analysis as a part of green infrastructure design code can provide insights into green roof weaknesses and areas for improvement. It also supports the design of code that is more resilient than current standards and is easily testable for failure. Finally, the understanding of reliability of a single green roof module under different scenarios can support holistic testing of system reliability.

  13. E-maintenance Scenarios Based on Augmented Reality Software Architecture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benbelkacem, S.; Zenati-Henda, N.; Belhocine, M.

    2008-06-01

    This paper presents architecture of augmented reality for e-maintenance application. In our case, the aim is not to develop a vision system based on augmented reality concept, but to show the relationship between the different actors in the proposed architecture and to facilitate maintenance of the machine. This architecture allows implementing different scenarios which give to the technician possibilities to intervene on a breakdown device with a distant expert help. Each scenario is established according to machine parameters and technician competences. In our case, a hardware platform is designed to carry out e-maintenance scenarios. An example of e-maintenance scenario is then presented.

  14. Verifying real-time systems against scenario-based requirements

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Kim Guldstrand; Li, Shuhao; Nielsen, Brian;

    2009-01-01

    subset of the LSC language. By equivalently translating an LSC chart into an observer TA and then non-intrusively composing this observer with the original system model, the problem of verifying a real-time system against a scenario-based requirement reduces to a classical real-time model checking......We propose an approach to automatic verification of real-time systems against scenario-based requirements. A real-time system is modeled as a network of Timed Automata (TA), and a scenario-based requirement is specified as a Live Sequence Chart (LSC). We define a trace-based semantics for a kernel...

  15. Creative Classrooms through Game-Based Role-Play Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gjedde, Lisa

    2014-01-01

    studies a framework that anchors the curriculum in game-based role-play scenarios and offers affordances for the learners to immerse themselves in the multiple perspectives of the roles. In this way of introducing problem based learning in immersive narrative environments, the learners are provided......-based role-play scenarios as a learning tool that can integrate the curriculum in meaningful context, and how it has impacted on the interaction and creative learning experiences in the class....

  16. Model Performance Evaluation and Scenario Analysis (MPESA) Tutorial

    Science.gov (United States)

    This tool consists of two parts: model performance evaluation and scenario analysis (MPESA). The model performance evaluation consists of two components: model performance evaluation metrics and model diagnostics. These metrics provides modelers with statistical goodness-of-fit m...

  17. China ASON Network Migration Scenarios and Their Quantitative Analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Guoying Zhang; Soichiro Araki; Itaru Nishioka; Yoshihiko Suemura

    2003-01-01

    This paper proposes two migration scenarios from China rin g networks to ASON mesh networks . In our quantitative analysis with ASON/GMPLS simulator, a subnetwork protection scheme achieved best balanced performance in resource utilization and restoration time.

  18. China ASON Network Migration Scenarios and Their Quantitative Analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Soichiro; Araki; Itaru; Nishioka; Yoshihiko; Suemura

    2003-01-01

    This paper proposes two migration scenarios from China ring networks to ASON mesh networks. In our quantitative analysis with ASON/GMPLS simulator, a subnetwork protection scheme achieved best balanced performance in resource utilization and restoration time.

  19. Usability standards meet scenario-based design: challenges and opportunities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vincent, Christopher J; Blandford, Ann

    2015-02-01

    The focus of this paper is on the challenges and opportunities presented by developing scenarios of use for interactive medical devices. Scenarios are integral to the international standard for usability engineering of medical devices (IEC 62366:2007), and are also applied to the development of health software (draft standard IEC 82304-1). The 62366 standard lays out a process for mitigating risk during normal use (i.e. use as per the instructions, or accepted medical practice). However, this begs the question of whether "real use" (that which occurs in practice) matches "normal use". In this paper, we present an overview of the product lifecycle and how it impacts on the type of scenario that can be practically applied. We report on the development and testing of a set of scenarios intended to inform the design of infusion pumps based on "real use". The scenarios were validated by researchers and practitioners experienced in clinical practice, and their utility was assessed by developers and practitioners representing different stages of the product lifecycle. These evaluations highlighted previously unreported challenges and opportunities for the use of scenarios in this context. Challenges include: integrating scenario-based design with usability engineering practice; covering the breadth of uses of infusion devices; and managing contradictory evidence. Opportunities included scenario use beyond design to guide marketing, to inform purchasing and as resources for training staff. This study exemplifies one empirically grounded approach to communicating and negotiating the realities of practice. PMID:25460202

  20. Contention-based forwarding for street scenarios

    OpenAIRE

    Füßler, Holger; Hartenstein, Hannes; Mauve, Martin; Effelsberg, Wolfgang; Widmer, Jörg

    2004-01-01

    In this paper, we propose to apply Contention-Based Forwarding (CBF) to Vehicular Ad Hoc Networks (VANETs). CBF is a greedy position-based forwarding algorithm that does not require proactive transmission of beacon messages. CBF performance is analyzed using realistic movement patterns of vehicles on a highway. We show by means of simulation that CBF as well as traditional position-based routing (PBR) achieve a delivery rate of almost 100 given that connectivity ...

  1. A scenario based approach for flexible resource loading under uncertainty

    OpenAIRE

    Wullink, G; Gademann, A.J.R.M.; Hans, E.W.; Harten, van, W.H.

    2003-01-01

    Order acceptance decisions in manufacture-to-order environments are often made based on incomplete or uncertain information. To promise reliable due dates and to manage resource capacity adequately, resource capacity loading is an indispensable supporting tool. We propose a scenario based approach for resource loading under uncertainty that minimises the expected costs. The approach uses an MILP to find a plan that has minimum expected costs over all relevant scenarios. We propose an exact an...

  2. A cognitive task analysis of the SGTR scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This report constitutes a contribution to the NKS/RAK-1:3 project on Integrated Sequence Analysis. Following the meeting at Ringhals, the work was proposed to be performed by the following three steps: Task 1. Cognitive Task Analysis of the E-3 procedure. Task 2. Evaluation and revision of task analysis with Ringhals/KSU experts. Task 3. Integration with simulator data. The Cognitive Task Analysis (CTA) of Task 1 uses the Goals-Means Task Analysis (GMTA) method to identify the sequence of tasks and task steps necessary to achieve the goals of the procedure. It is based on material supplied by Ringhals, which describes the E-3 procedure, including the relevant ES and ECA procedures. The analysis further outlines the cognitive demands profile associated with individual task steps as well as with the task as a whole, as an indication of the nominal task load. The outcome of the cognitive task analysis provides a basis for proposing an adequate event tree. This report describes the results from Task 1. The work has included a two-day meeting between the three contributors, as well as the exchange of intermediate results and comments throughout the period. After the initial draft of the report was prepared, an opportunity was given to observe the SGTR scenario in a full-scope training simulator, and to discuss the details with the instructors. This led to several improvements from the initial draft. (EG)

  3. Large scale scenario analysis of future low carbon energy options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In this study, we use a multi-model framework to examine a set of possible future energy scenarios resulting from R&D investments in Solar, Nuclear, Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), Bio-fuels, Bio-electricity, and Batteries for Electric Transportation. Based on a global scenario analysis, we examine the impact on the economy of advancement in energy technologies, considering both individual technologies and the interactions between pairs of technologies, with a focus on the role of uncertainty. Nuclear and CCS have the most impact on abatement costs, with CCS mostly important at high levels of abatement. We show that CCS and Bio-electricity are complements, while most of the other energy technology pairs are substitutes. We also examine for stochastic dominance between R&D portfolios: given the uncertainty in R&D outcomes, we examine which portfolios would be preferred by all decision-makers, regardless of their attitude toward risk. We observe that portfolios with CCS tend to stochastically dominate those without CCS; and portfolios lacking CCS and Nuclear tend to be stochastically dominated by others. We find that the dominance of CCS becomes even stronger as uncertainty in climate damages increases. Finally, we show that there is significant value in carefully choosing a portfolio, as relatively small portfolios can dominate large portfolios. - Highlights: • We examine future energy scenarios in the face of R&D and climate uncertainty. • We examine the impact of advancement in energy technologies and pairs of technologies. • CCS complements Bio-electricity while most technology pairs are substitutes. • R&D portfolios without CCS are stochastically dominated by portfolios with CCS. • Higher damage uncertainty favors R&D development of CCS and Bio-electricity

  4. Socio-economic Scenario Development for Climate Change Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    KRIEGLER Elmar; O'Neill, Brian-C; Hallegatte, Stéphane; Kram, Tom; Moss, Richard-H; Lempert, Robert; Wilbanks, Thomas J

    2010-01-01

    Socio-economic scenarios constitute an important tool for exploring the long-term consequences of anthropogenic climate change and available response options. They have been applied for different purposes and to a different degree in various areas of climate change analysis, typically in combination with projections of future climate change. Integrated assessment modeling (IAM) has used them to develop greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios for the 21st century and to investigate strategies...

  5. Pre-Test Analysis of Major Scenarios for ATLAS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A thermal-hydraulic integral effect test facility, ATLAS was constructed at the Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI). The ATLAS is a 1/2 reduced height and 1/288 volume scaled test facility based on the design features of the APR1400. The simulation capability of the ATLAS for major design basis accidents (DBAs), including a large-break loss-of-coolant (LBLOCA), DVI line break and main steam line break (MSLB) accidents, is evaluated by the best-estimate system code, MARS, with the same control logics, transient scenarios and nodalization scheme. The validity of the applied scaling law and the thermal-hydraulic similarity between the ATLAS and the APR1400 for the major design basis accidents are assessed. It is confirmed that the ATLAS has a capability of maintaining an overall similarity with the reference plant APR1400 for the major design basis accidents considered in the present study. However, depending on the accident scenarios, there are some inconsistencies in certain thermal hydraulic parameters. It is found that the inconsistencies are mainly due to the reduced power effect and the increased stored energy in the structure. The present similarity analysis was successful in obtaining a greater insight into the unique design features of the ATLAS and would be used for developing the optimized experimental procedures and control logics

  6. Pre-Test Analysis of Major Scenarios for ATLAS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Euh, Dong-Jin; Choi, Ki-Yong; Park, Hyun-Sik; Kwon, Tae-Soon

    2007-02-15

    A thermal-hydraulic integral effect test facility, ATLAS was constructed at the Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI). The ATLAS is a 1/2 reduced height and 1/288 volume scaled test facility based on the design features of the APR1400. The simulation capability of the ATLAS for major design basis accidents (DBAs), including a large-break loss-of-coolant (LBLOCA), DVI line break and main steam line break (MSLB) accidents, is evaluated by the best-estimate system code, MARS, with the same control logics, transient scenarios and nodalization scheme. The validity of the applied scaling law and the thermal-hydraulic similarity between the ATLAS and the APR1400 for the major design basis accidents are assessed. It is confirmed that the ATLAS has a capability of maintaining an overall similarity with the reference plant APR1400 for the major design basis accidents considered in the present study. However, depending on the accident scenarios, there are some inconsistencies in certain thermal hydraulic parameters. It is found that the inconsistencies are mainly due to the reduced power effect and the increased stored energy in the structure. The present similarity analysis was successful in obtaining a greater insight into the unique design features of the ATLAS and would be used for developing the optimized experimental procedures and control logics.

  7. Scenario analysis for integrated water resources planning and management under uncertainty in the Zayandehrud river basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Safavi, Hamid R.; Golmohammadi, Mohammad H.; Sandoval-Solis, Samuel

    2016-08-01

    The goal of this study is to develop and analyze three scenarios in the Zayandehrud river basin in Iran using a model already built and calibrated by Safavi et al. (2015) that has results for the baseline scenario. Results from the baseline scenario show that water demands will be supplied at the cost of depletion of surface and ground water resources, making this scenario undesirable and unsustainable. Supply Management, Demand Management, and Meta (supply and demand management) scenarios are the selected scenarios in this study. They are to be developed and declared into the Zayandehrud model to assess and evaluate the imminent status of the basin. Certain strategies will be employed for this purpose to improve and rectify the current management policies. The five performance criteria of time-based and volumetric reliability, resilience, vulnerability, and maximum deficit will be employed in the process of scenario analysis and evaluation. The results obtained from the performance criteria will be summed up into a so-called 'Water Resources Sustainability Index' to facilitate comparison among the likely trade-offs. Uncertainties arising from historical data, management policies, rainfall-runoff model, demand priorities, and performance criteria are considered in the proposed conceptual framework and modeled by appropriate approaches. Results show that the Supply Management scenario can be used to improve upon the demand supply but that it has no tangible effects on the improvement of the resources in the study region. In this regard, the Demand Management scenario is found to be more effective than the water supply one although it still remains unacceptable. Results of the Meta scenario indicate that both the supply and demand management scenarios must be applied if the water resources are to be safeguarded against degradation and depletion. In other words, the supply management scenario is necessary but not adequate; rather, it must be coupled to the demand

  8. Long-range scenarios for climate change. Policy analysis. Proceedings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scenarios are conceivable future states of affairs given certain assumptions about the present and the course of events in the intervening period. They are particularly useful for investigating uncertainty and its consequences for decision making. Scenarios explicitly recognize that our ability to forecast the future course of events is very limited. Accordingly they identify the key areas of uncertainty and look at the consequences of different outcomes in those key areas. From the wide-ranging discussion held at the workshop, the criteria and principles listed below were developed to guide the process of scenario building in the particular context of climate change policy analysis. Such criteria should also help to avoid the inappropriate use of scenarios by policy makers and others. (author)

  9. Technology and Greenhouse Gas Emissions: An IntegratedScenario Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koomey, J.G.; Latiner, S.; Markel, R.J.; Marnay, C.; Richey, R.C.

    1998-09-01

    This report describes an analysis of possible technology-based scenarios for the U.S. energy system that would result in both carbon savings and net economic benefits. We use a modified version of the Energy Information Administration's National Energy Modeling System (LBNL-NEMS) to assess the potential energy, carbon, and bill savings from a portfolio of carbon saving options. This analysis is based on technology resource potentials estimated in previous bottom-up studies, but it uses the integrated LBNL-NEMS framework to assess interactions and synergies among these options. The analysis in this paper builds on previous estimates of possible "technology paths" to investigate four major components of an aggressive greenhouse gas reduction strategy: (1) the large scale implementation of demand-side efficiency, comparable in scale to that presented in two recent policy studies on this topic; (2) a variety of "alternative" electricity supply-side options, including biomass cofiring, extension of the renewable production tax credit for wind, increased industrial cogeneration, and hydropower refurbishment. (3) the economic retirement of older and less efficient existing fossil-find power plants; and (4) a permit charge of $23 per metric ton of carbon (1996 $/t),l assuming that carbon trading is implemented in the US, and that the carbon permit charge equilibrates at this level. This level of carbon permit charge, as discussed later in the report, is in the likely range for the Clinton Administration's position on this topic.

  10. Analysis of uncertainty propagation in nuclear fuel cycle scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nuclear scenario studies model nuclear fleet over a given period. They enable the comparison of different options for the reactor fleet evolution, and the management of the future fuel cycle materials, from mining to disposal, based on criteria such as installed capacity per reactor technology, mass inventories and flows, in the fuel cycle and in the waste. Uncertainties associated with nuclear data and scenario parameters (fuel, reactors and facilities characteristics) propagate along the isotopic chains in depletion calculations, and through out the scenario history, which reduces the precision of the results. The aim of this work is to develop, implement and use a stochastic uncertainty propagation methodology adapted to scenario studies. The method chosen is based on development of depletion computation surrogate models, which reduce the scenario studies computation time, and whose parameters include perturbations of the depletion model; and fabrication of equivalence model which take into account cross-sections perturbations for computation of fresh fuel enrichment. Then the uncertainty propagation methodology is applied to different scenarios of interest, considering different options of evolution for the French PWR fleet with SFR deployment. (author)

  11. Evaluating climate change adaptation options for urban flooding in Copenhagen based on new high‐end emission scenario simulations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Leonhardsen, Lykke; Madsen, Henrik

    2014-01-01

    Climate change adaptation studies on urban flooding are often based on a model chain approach from climate forcing scenarios to analysis of adaptation measures. Previous analyses of impacts in Denmark using ensemble projections of the A1B scenario are supplemented by two high‐end scenario simulat...

  12. Control Strategy Scenarios for the Alien Lionfish Pterois volitans in Chinchorro Bank (Mexican Caribbean: Based on Semi-Quantitative Loop Analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marco Ortiz

    Full Text Available Ecological and eco-social network models were constructed with different levels of complexity in order to represent and evaluate management strategies for controlling the alien species Pterois volitans in Chinchorro bank (Mexican Caribbean. Levins´s loop analysis was used as a methodological framework for assessing the local stability (considered as a component of sustainability of the modeled management interventions represented by various scenarios. The results provided by models of different complexity (models 1 through 4 showed that a reduction of coral species cover would drive the system to unstable states. In the absence of the alien lionfish, the simultaneous fishing of large benthic epifaunal species, adult herbivorous fish and adult carnivorous fish could be sustainable only if the coral species present high levels of cover (models 2 and 3. Once the lionfish is added to the simulations (models 4 and 5, the analysis suggests that although the exploitation or removal of lionfish from shallow waters may be locally stable, it remains necessary to implement additional and concurrent human interventions that increase the holistic sustainability of the control strategy. The supplementary interventions would require the implementation of programs for: (1 the restoration of corals for increasing their cover, (2 the exploitation or removal of lionfish from deeper waters (decreasing the chance of source/sink meta-population dynamics and (3 the implementation of bans and re-stocking programs for carnivorous fishes (such as grouper that increase the predation and competition pressure on lionfish (i.e. biological control. An effective control management for the alien lionfish at Chinchorro bank should not be optimized for a single action plan: instead, we should investigate the concurrent implementation of multiple strategies.

  13. Control Strategy Scenarios for the Alien Lionfish Pterois volitans in Chinchorro Bank (Mexican Caribbean): Based on Semi-Quantitative Loop Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ortiz, Marco; Rodriguez-Zaragoza, Fabián; Hermosillo-Nuñez, Brenda; Jordán, Ferenc

    2015-01-01

    Ecological and eco-social network models were constructed with different levels of complexity in order to represent and evaluate management strategies for controlling the alien species Pterois volitans in Chinchorro bank (Mexican Caribbean). Levins´s loop analysis was used as a methodological framework for assessing the local stability (considered as a component of sustainability) of the modeled management interventions represented by various scenarios. The results provided by models of different complexity (models 1 through 4) showed that a reduction of coral species cover would drive the system to unstable states. In the absence of the alien lionfish, the simultaneous fishing of large benthic epifaunal species, adult herbivorous fish and adult carnivorous fish could be sustainable only if the coral species present high levels of cover (models 2 and 3). Once the lionfish is added to the simulations (models 4 and 5), the analysis suggests that although the exploitation or removal of lionfish from shallow waters may be locally stable, it remains necessary to implement additional and concurrent human interventions that increase the holistic sustainability of the control strategy. The supplementary interventions would require the implementation of programs for: (1) the restoration of corals for increasing their cover, (2) the exploitation or removal of lionfish from deeper waters (decreasing the chance of source/sink meta-population dynamics) and (3) the implementation of bans and re-stocking programs for carnivorous fishes (such as grouper) that increase the predation and competition pressure on lionfish (i.e. biological control). An effective control management for the alien lionfish at Chinchorro bank should not be optimized for a single action plan: instead, we should investigate the concurrent implementation of multiple strategies. PMID:26114745

  14. Fairness and cost-effectiveness of CO2 emission reduction targets in the European Union member states. An analysis based on scenario studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Member States of the European Union (EU) have agreed upon a common position in the international negotiations on the limitation of greenhouse gas emissions. The total commitment of the EU is the result of differentiated emission targets for the individual Member States. In this study the results of 4 recent scenario studies on CO2 emission reduction are used to assess the fairness and the cost-effectiveness of the differentiated targets. Here, fairness is measured by the average cost per capita in a country to reach the emission target. Cost-effectiveness is based on the marginal cost of emission reduction. It is noted that there are limitations in the comparability of the country results. Further, the coverage of the EU Member States is not complete in all 4 studies. Robust conclusions could thus not be drawn for all countries. Nonetheless, there are strong indications that the efforts to achieve the emission reduction targets are not evenly distributed. Based on the results the countries can be divided into four groups with different burdens to achieve reduction of CO2 emissions: (a) countries that will probably be faced with above average burdens: Sweden, Italy and the Netherlands; (b) countries that will presumably be faced with above average burdens but for which limited information is available: Austria and Denmark; (c) countries that will probably be faced with average burdens or for which the relative efforts are indistinct: Germany, Portugal, Belgium, Finland and Luxembourg; and (d) countries that will probably be faced with below average burdens: United Kingdom, France, Spain, Ireland and Greece. 1 fig., 12 tabs., 6 refs

  15. Scenario Analysis and System Dynamics in New Emerging Technology Research: Case Mobile Peer-to-Peer Content Distribution

    OpenAIRE

    Karikoski, Juuso; Heikkinen, Mikko; Hämmäinen, Heikki

    2009-01-01

    Julkaisun kokoteksti on luettavissa vain Aalto-tunnuksilla. Please note that access to the fulltext is limited to Aalto staff and students. This paper studies the use of scenario analysis andsystem dynamics in researching mobile peer-to-peer contentdistribution as a new emerging technology. Scenario analysisbounds the uncertainty related to the alternative futures of thetechnology by defining different scenarios. System dynamics isused to build a quantitative model based on the scenario...

  16. Metastudy analysis on 2050 energy scenarios. Policy briefing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Foerster, Hannah; Healy, Sean; Loreck, Charlotte; Matthes, Felix [Oeko-Institut e.V. - Institut fuer Angewandte Oekologie, Freiburg im Breisgau (Germany); Fischedick, Manfred; Lechtenboehmer, Stefan; Samadi, Sascha; Venjakob, Johannes [Wuppertal Institut (Germany)

    2012-07-15

    The need for an ''Energy Roadmap 2050'' triggered a multitude of studies that were conducted between 2009 and 2011, which again contained a multitude of decarbonisation scenarios, which achieve the EU's long-term emission mitigation target of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by at least 80% until 2050 (relative to 1990 emissions). The variety of important analysis is difficult to compare and utilize for specific and timely policy decisions. Thus the Smart Energy for Europe Platform (SEFEP) has commissioned a comparative study of relevant energy scenario studies for Europe. The findings of this comparative study are summarized here briefly.

  17. Development on quantitative safety analysis method of accident scenario. The automatic scenario generator development for event sequence construction of accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This study intends to develop a more sophisticated tool that will advance the current event tree method used in all PSA, and to focus on non-catastrophic events, specifically a non-core melt sequence scenario not included in an ordinary PSA. In the non-catastrophic event PSA, it is necessary to consider various end states and failure combinations for the purpose of multiple scenario construction. Therefore it is anticipated that an analysis work should be reduced and automated method and tool is required. A scenario generator that can automatically handle scenario construction logic and generate the enormous size of sequences logically identified by state-of-the-art methodology was developed. To fulfill the scenario generation as a technical tool, a simulation model associated with AI technique and graphical interface, was introduced. The AI simulation model in this study was verified for the feasibility of its capability to evaluate actual systems. In this feasibility study, a spurious SI signal was selected to test the model's applicability. As a result, the basic capability of the scenario generator could be demonstrated and important scenarios were generated. The human interface with a system and its operation, as well as time dependent factors and their quantification in scenario modeling, was added utilizing human scenario generator concept. Then the feasibility of an improved scenario generator was tested for actual use. Automatic scenario generation with a certain level of credibility, was achieved by this study. (author)

  18. Scenario-based Training : Director’s Cut

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Peeters, M.M.M.; Bosch, K. van den; Meyer, J.J.C.; Neerincx, M.A.

    2011-01-01

    Research regarding autonomous learning shows that freeplay does not result in optimal learning. Combining scenario-based training with intelligent agent technology offers the possibility to create autonomous training enriched with automated adaptive support delivered by a director agent. We conducte

  19. Tarapur atomic power station: analysis of station blackout scenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Contractor, A.D.; Lele, H.G.; Vaze, K.K. [Bhabha Atomic Research Centre, Mumbai (India). Reactor Safety Division; Srivastava, A.

    2015-03-15

    India is currently operating two BWR built by General Electric Company. The design features of these reactors are similar to the Fukushima's BWR except some better containment features in Indian BWR. This paper discusses the enveloping scenario of station blackout of infinite duration with no operator action and no component failure. The paper describes the details of modelling the TAPS-BWR plant model including SCDAP modelling of reactor core in system code RELAP5 and further thermal hydraulic safety assessment of station blackout scenario. The analysis brought out effectively the response of the plant to this high-pressure severe accident scenario. The time line of the severe accident progression will give details of various stages of accident progression along with hydrogen generation, which will be useful in evolving suitable severe accident management guidelines.

  20. Water footprint scenarios for 2050: A global analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ercin, A. Ertug; Hoekstra, Arjen Y.

    2014-01-01

    This study develops water footprint scenarios for 2050 based on a number of drivers of change: population growth, economic growth, production/trade pattern, consumption pattern (dietary change, bioenergy use) and technological development. The objective the study is to understand the changes in the

  1. An Approach to Traffic Scenario Analysis, Generation and Evaluation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chen, Y.; Van Zuylen, H.J.

    2014-01-01

    Start taking a few most applied scenarios from a traffic control centre, analysing each component and structure of the whole, and evaluating the impact of each component and some typical combinations, based on available monitoring systems. Carrying on such initial research on best practices, we buil

  2. An inquiry into the potential of scenario analysis for dealing with uncertainty in strategic environmental assessment in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Strategic environmental assessment (SEA) inherently needs to address greater levels of uncertainty in the formulation and implementation processes of strategic decisions, compared with project environmental impact assessment. The range of uncertainties includes internal and external factors of the complex system that is concerned in the strategy. Scenario analysis is increasingly being used to cope with uncertainty in SEA. Following a brief introduction of scenarios and scenario analysis, this paper examines the rationale for scenario analysis in SEA in the context of China. The state of the art associated with scenario analysis applied to SEA in China was reviewed through four SEA case analyses. Lessons learned from these cases indicated the word 'scenario' appears to be abused and the scenario-based methods appear to be misused due to the lack of understanding of an uncertain future and scenario analysis. However, good experiences were also drawn on, regarding how to integrate scenario analysis into the SEA process in China, how to cope with driving forces including uncertainties, how to combine qualitative scenario storylines with quantitative impact predictions, and how to conduct assessments and propose recommendations based on scenarios. Additionally, the ways to improve the application of this tool in SEA were suggested. We concluded by calling for further methodological research on this issue and more practices.

  3. Systems analysis of past, present, and future chemical terrorism scenarios.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hoette, Trisha Marie

    2012-03-01

    Throughout history, as new chemical threats arose, strategies for the defense against chemical attacks have also evolved. As a part of an Early Career Laboratory Directed Research and Development project, a systems analysis of past, present, and future chemical terrorism scenarios was performed to understand how the chemical threats and attack strategies change over time. For the analysis, the difficulty in executing chemical attack was evaluated within a framework of three major scenario elements. First, historical examples of chemical terrorism were examined to determine how the use of chemical threats, versus other weapons, contributed to the successful execution of the attack. Using the same framework, the future of chemical terrorism was assessed with respect to the impact of globalization and new technologies. Finally, the efficacy of the current defenses against contemporary chemical terrorism was considered briefly. The results of this analysis justify the need for continued diligence in chemical defense.

  4. Organic Farming Scenarios: Operational Analysis and Costs of implementing Innovative Technologies

    OpenAIRE

    Sørensen, Claus G.; Madsen, Niels A.; Jacobsen, Brian H.

    2005-01-01

    The objective of this study has been to design a number of farm scenarios representing future plausible and internally consistent organic farming enterprises based on milk, pig, and plant production and use these farm scenarios as the basis for the generation of generalised knowledge on labour and machinery input and costs. Also, an impact analysis and feasibility study of introducing innovative technologies into the organic production system has been invoked. The labour demand for the ...

  5. Scenario-based Participatory Design for Pervasive Computing

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIU Zhi-qiang; DING Peng; SHENG Huan-ye

    2007-01-01

    Lots of pervasive computing researchers are working on how to realize the user-centered intelligent pervasive computing environment as Mark Weiser figured out. Task abstraction is the fundamentation of configuration for pervasive application. Based on task-oriented and descriptive properties of scenario, a scenario-based participatory design model was proposed to realize the task abstraction. The design model provided users and domain experts a useful mechanism to build the customized applications by separating system model into domain model and design model. In this design model, domain experts, together with users, stakeholders focus on the logic rules (domain model) and programmers work on the implementation (design model). In order to formalize the model description, a human-agent interaction language to transform users' goals and domain rules into executable scenarios was also discussed. An agent platform - describer used to link design and implementation of scenarios was developed to realize the configuration of applications according to different requirements. The demand bus application showed the design process and the usability of this model.

  6. Scenario-based Storm Surge Vulnerability Assessment of Catanduanes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suarez, J. K. B.

    2015-12-01

    After the devastating storm surge effect of Typhoon Haiyan, the public recognized an improved communication about risks, vulnerabilities and what is threatened by storm surge. This can be provided by vulnerability maps which allow better visual presentations and understanding of the risks and vulnerabilities. Local implementers can direct the resources needed for protection of these areas. Moreover, vulnerability and hazard maps are relevant in all phases of disaster management designed by the National Disaster Risk Reduction Council (NDRRMC) - disaster preparedness, prevention and mitigation and response and recovery and rehabilitation. This paper aims to analyze the vulnerability of Catanduanes, a coastal province in the Philippines, to storm surges in terms of four parameters: population, built environment, natural environment and agricultural production. The vulnerability study relies on the storm surge inundation maps based on the Department of Science and Technology Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards' (DOST-Project NOAH) proposed four Storm Surge Advisory (SSA) scenarios (1-2, 3, 4, and 5 meters) for predicting storm surge heights. To determine total percent affected for each parameter elements, an overlay analysis was performed in ArcGIS Desktop. Moreover, vulnerability and hazard maps are generated as a final output and a tool for visualizing the impacts of storm surge event at different surge heights. The result of this study would help the selected province to know their present condition and adapt strategies to strengthen areas where they are found to be most vulnerable in order to prepare better for the future.

  7. Reliable Freestanding Position-Based Routing in Highway Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luis Villaseñor-González

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Vehicular Ad Hoc Networks (VANETs are considered by car manufacturers and the research community as the enabling technology to radically improve the safety, efficiency and comfort of everyday driving. However, before VANET technology can fulfill all its expected potential, several difficulties must be addressed. One key issue arising when working with VANETs is the complexity of the networking protocols compared to those used by traditional infrastructure networks. Therefore, proper design of the routing strategy becomes a main issue for the effective deployment of VANETs. In this paper, a reliable freestanding position-based routing algorithm (FPBR for highway scenarios is proposed. For this scenario, several important issues such as the high mobility of vehicles and the propagation conditions may affect the performance of the routing strategy. These constraints have only been partially addressed in previous proposals. In contrast, the design approach used for developing FPBR considered the constraints imposed by a highway scenario and implements mechanisms to overcome them. FPBR performance is compared to one of the leading protocols for highway scenarios. Performance metrics show that FPBR yields similar results when considering freespace propagation conditions, and outperforms the leading protocol when considering a realistic highway path loss model.

  8. Reliable freestanding position-based routing in highway scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galaviz-Mosqueda, Gabriel A; Aquino-Santos, Raúl; Villarreal-Reyes, Salvador; Rivera-Rodríguez, Raúl; Villaseñor-González, Luis; Edwards, Arthur

    2012-01-01

    Vehicular Ad Hoc Networks (VANETs) are considered by car manufacturers and the research community as the enabling technology to radically improve the safety, efficiency and comfort of everyday driving. However, before VANET technology can fulfill all its expected potential, several difficulties must be addressed. One key issue arising when working with VANETs is the complexity of the networking protocols compared to those used by traditional infrastructure networks. Therefore, proper design of the routing strategy becomes a main issue for the effective deployment of VANETs. In this paper, a reliable freestanding position-based routing algorithm (FPBR) for highway scenarios is proposed. For this scenario, several important issues such as the high mobility of vehicles and the propagation conditions may affect the performance of the routing strategy. These constraints have only been partially addressed in previous proposals. In contrast, the design approach used for developing FPBR considered the constraints imposed by a highway scenario and implements mechanisms to overcome them. FPBR performance is compared to one of the leading protocols for highway scenarios. Performance metrics show that FPBR yields similar results when considering freespace propagation conditions, and outperforms the leading protocol when considering a realistic highway path loss model. PMID:23202159

  9. Modeling and analysis of long-term energy scenarios for sustainable strategies of Ethiopia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Senshaw, Dereje Azemraw

    2014-04-15

    from 1,313 PJ in 2010. Nevertheless, the energy intensity is expected to decrease gradually across the three scenarios, from 65MJ/$ in base year (2010) to 22, 20 and 13 MJ/$ in 2050 for BAU, Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 respectively. Importantly, under Scenario 2, the energy intensity will decrease with an average annual rate of 3,9%. Certainly, Scenario 2 has the largest capability of energy savings. The per capita primary energy consumption in Scenario 2 is the highest (at annual rate of 4.1%) and followed by Scenario 1 (3.3%) over the period. With respect to energy intensity, energy diversity and per capita consumption, BAU scenario shows is the least preferred option with highest risks related to security and diversity of supply. In Scenario 2, the proportion of oil consumption will decrease to 7.4%, i.e., lower than the values of 17.72% and 11.5% for the BAU and Scenario 1, respectively. The demand for non-conventional renewables is expected to increase significantly in all three scenarios from around 1% in 2010, to 11% 23% and 36.6% for the BAU scenario, Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 respectively over the period of 2010-2050. Overall, under Scenario 2, the degree of diversification in the total energy requirement would increase and gradually will become environmentally friendly in Ethiopia, with rapid growth in the use of alternative clean energy. The absolute CO{sub 2} emissions under the three scenarios from 2010 to 2050 will slightly increase due to the stronger economic development, which still stay within the limits of an ambitious climate change mitigation policy. Nevertheless, Scenario 2 has the lowest CO{sub 2} emission intensity, followed by the Scenario 1 and BAU scenarios. By 2050 the CO{sub 2} emissions intensities of BAU, Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 will reach 0.1, 0.08 and 0.05 kg CO{sub 2} per US$ of GDP, respectively. Overall, the results of analysis demonstrate that the alternative scenarios (Scenario 1 and Scenario 2) would result in a sustainable energy

  10. Modeling and analysis of long-term energy scenarios for sustainable strategies of Ethiopia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    ,313 PJ in 2010. Nevertheless, the energy intensity is expected to decrease gradually across the three scenarios, from 65MJ/$ in base year (2010) to 22, 20 and 13 MJ/$ in 2050 for BAU, Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 respectively. Importantly, under Scenario 2, the energy intensity will decrease with an average annual rate of 3,9%. Certainly, Scenario 2 has the largest capability of energy savings. The per capita primary energy consumption in Scenario 2 is the highest (at annual rate of 4.1%) and followed by Scenario 1 (3.3%) over the period. With respect to energy intensity, energy diversity and per capita consumption, BAU scenario shows is the least preferred option with highest risks related to security and diversity of supply. In Scenario 2, the proportion of oil consumption will decrease to 7.4%, i.e., lower than the values of 17.72% and 11.5% for the BAU and Scenario 1, respectively. The demand for non-conventional renewables is expected to increase significantly in all three scenarios from around 1% in 2010, to 11% 23% and 36.6% for the BAU scenario, Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 respectively over the period of 2010-2050. Overall, under Scenario 2, the degree of diversification in the total energy requirement would increase and gradually will become environmentally friendly in Ethiopia, with rapid growth in the use of alternative clean energy. The absolute CO2 emissions under the three scenarios from 2010 to 2050 will slightly increase due to the stronger economic development, which still stay within the limits of an ambitious climate change mitigation policy. Nevertheless, Scenario 2 has the lowest CO2 emission intensity, followed by the Scenario 1 and BAU scenarios. By 2050 the CO2 emissions intensities of BAU, Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 will reach 0.1, 0.08 and 0.05 kg CO2 per US$ of GDP, respectively. Overall, the results of analysis demonstrate that the alternative scenarios (Scenario 1 and Scenario 2) would result in a sustainable energy transitions that would shape the

  11. Analysis of the energy scenario Negawatt 2006; Analyse du scenario energetique negaWatt 2006

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Acket, C.; Bacher, P

    2006-10-15

    The association Negawatt published in 2003 an energy scenario for the France in 2050, under the name of Negawatt 2006. This document aims to analyze the scenario Negawatt with a comparison of the scenario published on the web site of SLC, Save the Climate. The authors analyzes the main three sectors: electricity, transports and residential to propose their comparison in conclusion. (A.L.B.)

  12. Deriving future oriented research and competence requirements based on scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sonne, Anne-Mette; Harmsen, Hanne; Jensen, Birger Boutrup

    The key to a company's survival lies in its ability to adapt itself to an ever changing world. A company's knowledge and competencies must be fitted to the requirements of the environment in which it operates. However, the kind of competencies that ensures a company's survival are not acquired...... overnight. Consequently companies need to try to be foresighted with regards to what is required to operate successfully not only today but also tomorrow and in five and ten years. Hence, companies are faced with trying to assess how to best prepare themselves for a tomorrow that they can only guess about......, which perhaps explains the increasing popularity of scenario analysis in business and other organizations. An institutionalised usage of scenario planning can shape a company's ability to act rather than to react in a volatile environment. Emerging weak signals (i.e. indicators of change) can...

  13. Robustness Analysis of Real Network Topologies Under Multiple Failure Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Manzano, M.; Marzo, J. L.; Calle, E.;

    2012-01-01

    Nowadays the ubiquity of telecommunication networks, which underpin and fulfill key aspects of modern day living, is taken for granted. Significant large-scale failures have occurred in the last years affecting telecommunication networks. Traditionally, network robustness analysis has been focused...... on topological characteristics. Recently approaches also consider the services supported by such networks. In this paper we carry out a robustness analysis of five real backbone telecommunication networks under defined multiple failure scenarios, taking into account the consequences of the loss of established...

  14. Base Station Antenna Pattern Distortion in Practical Urban Deployment Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rodriguez Larrad, Ignacio; Nguyen, Huan Cong; Sørensen, Troels Bundgaard;

    2014-01-01

    In real urban deployments, base station antennas are typically not placed in free space conditions. Therefore, the radiation pattern can be affected by mounting structures and nearby obstacles located in the proximity of the antenna (near-field), which are often not taken into consideration. Also...... presents a combination of near-field and far-field simulations aimed to provide an overview of the distortion experienced by the base station antenna pattern in two different urban deployment scenarios: rooftop and telecommunications tower. The study illustrates how, in comparison with the near...

  15. Probabilistic scenario-based water resource planning and management:A case study in the Yellow River Basin, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, C.; Schoups, G.; van de Giesen, N.

    2012-04-01

    Water resource planning and management is subject to large uncertainties with respect to the impact of climate change and socio-economic development on water systems. In order to deal with these uncertainties, probabilistic climate and socio-economic scenarios were developed based on the Principle of Maximum Entropy, as defined within information theory, and as inputs to hydrological models to construct probabilistic water scenarios using Monte Carlo simulation. Probabilistic scenarios provide more explicit information than equally-likely scenarios for decision-making in water resource management. A case was developed for the Yellow River Basin, China, where future water availability and water demand are affected by both climate change and socio-economic development. Climate scenarios of future precipitation and temperature were developed based on the results of multiple Global climate models; and socio-economic scenarios were downscaled from existing large-scale scenarios. Probability distributions were assigned to these scenarios to explicitly represent a full set of future possibilities. Probabilistic climate scenarios were used as input to a rainfall-runoff model to simulate future river discharge and socio-economic scenarios for calculating water demand. A full set of possible future water supply-demand scenarios and their associated probability distributions were generated. This set can feed the further analysis of the future water balance, which can be used as a basis to plan and manage water resources in the Yellow River Basin. Key words: Probabilistic scenarios, climate change, socio-economic development, water management

  16. The variation of health effects based on the scenarios considering release parameters and meteorological data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The variation of health effects resulting from the severe accidents of the YGN 3 and 4 nuclear power plants was examined based on scenarios considering the release parameters and meteorological data. The release parameters and meteorological data considered in making basic scenarios are release height, heat content, release time, warning time, wind speed, rainfall rate, and atmospheric stability class. The seasonal scenarios were also made in order to estimate the seasonal variation of health effects by considering seasonal characteristics of Korea. According to the results, there are large differences in consequence analysis from scenario to although an equal amount of radioactive materials is released to the atmosphere. Also, there are large differences in health effects from season to season due to distinct seasonal characteristics of Korea. Therefore, it is necessary to consider seasonal characteristics in developing optimum emergency response strategies

  17. Development and analysis of SCR requirements tables for system scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Callahan, John R.; Morrison, Jeffery L.

    1995-01-01

    We describe the use of scenarios to develop and refine requirement tables for parts of the Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS). The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is developing EOSDIS as part of its Mission-To-Planet-Earth (MTPE) project to accept instrument/platform observation requests from end-user scientists, schedule and perform requested observations of the Earth from space, collect and process the observed data, and distribute data to scientists and archives. Current requirements for the system are managed with tools that allow developers to trace the relationships between requirements and other development artifacts, including other requirements. In addition, the user community (e.g., earth and atmospheric scientists), in conjunction with NASA, has generated scenarios describing the actions of EOSDIS subsystems in response to user requests and other system activities. As part of a research effort in verification and validation techniques, this paper describes our efforts to develop requirements tables from these scenarios for the EOSDIS Core System (ECS). The tables specify event-driven mode transitions based on techniques developed by the Naval Research Lab's (NRL) Software Cost Reduction (SCR) project. The SCR approach has proven effective in specifying requirements for large systems in an unambiguous, terse format that enhance identification of incomplete and inconsistent requirements. We describe development of SCR tables from user scenarios and identify the strengths and weaknesses of our approach in contrast to the requirements tracing approach. We also evaluate the capabilities of both approach to respond to the volatility of requirements in large, complex systems.

  18. Improvement of nursing students' learning outcomes through scenario-based skills training

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uysal, Nurcan

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Objective: this study analyzed the influence of scenario-based skills training on students' learning skills. Method: the author evaluated the nursing skills laboratory exam papers of 605 sophomores in nursing programs for seven years. The study determined the common mistakes of students and the laboratory work was designed in a scenario-based format. The effectiveness of this method was evaluated by assessing the number of errors the students committed and their achievement scores in laboratory examinations. This study presents the students' common mistakes in intramuscular and subcutaneous injection and their development of intravenous access skills, included in the nursing skills laboratory examination. Results: an analysis of the students' most common mistakes revealed that the most common was not following the principles of asepsis for all three skills (intramuscular, subcutaneous injection, intravenous access) in the first year of the scenario-based training. The students' exam achievement scores increased gradually, except in the fall semester of the academic year 2009-2010. The study found that the scenario-based skills training reduced students' common mistakes in examinations and enhanced their performance on exams. Conclusion: this method received a positive response from both students and instructors. The scenario-based training is available for use in addition to other skills training methods. PMID:27508922

  19. Designing and Evaluating Conative Game-Based Learning Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schønau-Fog, Henrik

    2014-01-01

    It is an essential prerequisite to design for motivation in game-based learning applications, tools and activities. However, how is it possible to design and evaluate motivational game-based learning scenarios in a systematic process-oriented manner based on conation and player engagement? While....... These concepts will then be utilized to introduce the foundation of a framework consisting of three stages: initiation, exploration and captivation. The stages are intended to sustain the learners’ conation beyond gamification and the framework may thus be helpful in the design and evaluation of conative game-based...... conation is related to the perseverance, determination and tenacity players exhibit when playing an interesting game, player engagement describes in detail what it is that causes a player to keep playing - Not only through fun and gamification drivers such as points and levels, but by utilizing triggers...

  20. Collapse Scenarios of High-Rise Buildings Using Plastic Limit Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Liu

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available The Twin Towers of the World Trade Center (WTC in New York, USA collapsed on 11 September, 2001. The incident is regarded as the most severe disaster for high-rise buildings in history. Investigations into the collapse scenarios are still being conducted. Possible collapse scenarios assessed by local and international experts were reported. Another possible collapse scenario of the WTC based on two hypotheses was proposed in this paper, and the idea of plastic limit analysis was applied to evaluate the approximate limit load. According to the theory analysis and numerical calculations, a conclusion can be drawn that the large fires, aroused by the terrorist attack, play a significant role on the collapse of the WTC.

  1. Scenario Analysis. Toward a Change in the Soil Consumption Paradigm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giuseppe Mazzeo

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available The processes of urbanization affecting the modern world have seen the explosion of the city and the transformation of compact and well defined structures in agglomerations with a seamlessly expansion. This has sparked a number of social and economic consequences that have impacted on the city, on the urbanized areas, and on the surroundings. The usage of the term “sprawl” to define the process of expansion of the human agglomerations dates back to eighty years ago, about, and from that period countless researches were done on the argument, also if it is open the question about the future trends of the city; if it is clear that the expansive model is still winning, it is equally necessary to identify new models that can better interpret the needs for a new attention to the territory and its environment. For this purpose the paper explores the feasible use of the scenario analysis as tool for defining the potential evolutionary paths of the city. Particular attention is placed on the construction of de-urbanization’s scenarios, namely the set of reorganization’s hypotheses of urban structures focused on the compaction of their physical size and on the maximizing of the number of residents and users. The paper seeks to deepen the possible trajectories of de-urbanization and of urban and territorial reorganization stretched to reverse the diffusion and expansive processes at the metropolitan level. The paper initially defines the characters of the processes of urbanization, also with reference to some research’s models. The second part investigates the use of scenarios for the construction of evolutionary trends. The third, finally, examines the trends comparing the processes of urban growth and of de-urbanization.

  2. Ontology-based collaborative framework for disaster recovery scenarios

    CERN Document Server

    Ramanathan, Sakkaravarthi; Drira, Khalil; Chassot, Christophe

    2012-01-01

    This paper aims at designing of adaptive framework for supporting collaborative work of different actors in public safety and disaster recovery missions. In such scenarios, firemen and robots interact to each other to reach a common goal; firemen team is equipped with smart devices and robots team is supplied with communication technologies, and should carry on specific tasks. Here, reliable connection is mandatory to ensure the interaction between actors. But wireless access network and communication resources are vulnerable in the event of a sudden unexpected change in the environment. Also, the continuous change in the mission requirements such as inclusion/exclusion of new actor, changing the actor's priority and the limitations of smart devices need to be monitored. To perform dynamically in such case, the presented framework is based on a generic multi-level modeling approach that ensures adaptation handled by semantic modeling. Automated self-configuration is driven by rule-based reconfiguration polici...

  3. How to improve scenario analysis as a strategic management tool?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Postma, TJBM; Liebl, F

    2005-01-01

    Scenarios are claimed to support strategic decision makers. They are especially effective in dealing with uncertainties. This paper addresses some drawbacks of the conventional scenario method, which is especially directed at handling these uncertainties, and indicates possible avenues for methodolo

  4. An Experiment on Graph Analysis Methodologies for Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brothers, Alan J.; Whitney, Paul D.; Wolf, Katherine E.; Kuchar, Olga A.; Chin, George

    2005-09-30

    Visual graph representations are increasingly used to represent, display, and explore scenarios and the structure of organizations. The graph representations of scenarios are readily understood, and commercial software is available to create and manage these representations. The purpose of the research presented in this paper is to explore whether these graph representations support quantitative assessments of the underlying scenarios. The underlying structure of the scenarios is the information that is being targeted in the experiment and the extent to which the scenarios are similar in content. An experiment was designed that incorporated both the contents of the scenarios and analysts’ graph representations of the scenarios. The scenarios’ content was represented graphically by analysts, and both the structure and the semantics of the graph representation were attempted to be used to understand the content. The structure information was not found to be discriminating for the content of the scenarios in this experiment; but, the semantic information was discriminating.

  5. Designing Collaborative Learning Environments Using Educational Scenarios Based on SR

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fotini Paraskeva

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available As more and more studies acknowledge that students are basic contributors to the learning process, factors such as self concept, (computer self-efficacy and self-regulation are important in enhancing human performance. Nevertheless, these learner characteristics have received little attention in the e-learning environment. This paper presents the results of a study indicating significant positive relationships between learner characteristics, such as self-concept (academic achievement and job achievement, Computer Self Efficacy (CSE and Self-Regulation (SR constructs. Acknowledging the requirement for a strong shift of students towards developing self-regulated scenarios and strategies, we suggest that collaborative e-learning environments should be designed according to the self-regulated theory and self-beliefs. As a result, in this study we present a model examining how we can design educational scenarios based on self-regulation theory in a collaborative e-learning environment. This model is a tool for conducting experiments in e-learning university courses, studying the design, development and evaluation of the collaborative learning process.

  6. Modern Policyholder Preferences and Scenario-Based Projections

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Ninna Reitzel

    This PhD thesis covers aspects of policyholder preferences and life insurance projections based on economic scenarios. Both topics are relevant to policyholders as well as to the life insurance and pension industry—and equally important, the topics give rise to a variety of interesting mathematical...... problems and industry related considerations. From a policyholder perspective, being aware of one’s own preferences is central for making the best possible financial decisions, with life insurance and pensions playing a major role. From an industry perspective, understanding policyholder preferences...... is important for designing competitive life insurance and savings products and for providing sound advice to policyholders. Preferences come in many shapes and forms. In this thesis, we focus on separation of risk and time preferences and preferences for smooth investment. The latter is modeled with something...

  7. Map-Based Channel Model for Urban Macrocell Propagation Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jose F. Monserrat

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The evolution of LTE towards 5G has started and different research projects and institutions are in the process of verifying new technology components through simulations. Coordination between groups is strongly recommended and, in this sense, a common definition of test cases and simulation models is needed. The scope of this paper is to present a realistic channel model for urban macrocell scenarios. This model is map-based and takes into account the layout of buildings situated in the area under study. A detailed description of the model is given together with a comparison with other widely used channel models. The benchmark includes a measurement campaign in which the proposed model is shown to be much closer to the actual behavior of a cellular system. Particular attention is given to the outdoor component of the model, since it is here where the proposed approach is showing main difference with other previous models.

  8. In vitro Quinolones Susceptibility Analysis of Chinese Mycoplasma bovis Isolates and their Phylogenetic Scenarios based upon QRDRs of DNA Topoisomerases Revealing a Unique Transition in ParC

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Riaz Mustafa1,2,3, Jingjing Qi1,2, Xiaoliang Ba1,2, Yingyu Chen1,4, Changmin Hu1,2, Xiaole Liu1,2, Lingling Tu5, Qingjie Peng5, Huanchun Chen1,2 and Aizhen Guo1,2*

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Mycoplasma bovis can cause different systemic problems in cattle, and recently has been resulted in huge economic losses in China. In vitro susceptibilities of 26 twice sub-cultured Chinese M. bovis field isolates were determined at physiological pH including PG45 through broth micro-dilution method. Except Huanggang isolate, all isolates and PG45 were in the sensitive range for levofloxacin, lomefloxacin and ciprofloxacin, whereas, for norfloxacin and nalidixic acid, they had shown intermediate resistant and complete resistant patterns, respectively. The multiple sequence analysis revealed point mutations in QRDRs of gyrA and parC genes of Huanggang isolate resulting in amino acid substitutions at positions 83 (S-F in GyrA (E. coli numbering and 80 (S-I in ParC proteins, the latter is reported for first time in M. bovis. Conclusively, fluoroquinolones are the potential veterinary therapeutic agents for mycoplasmosis in China and resistance to these agents comes through point mutations in QRDRs of gyrA and parC genes with ParC and GyrA mutation orientation.

  9. A Two-Account Life Insurance Model for Scenario-Based Valuation Including Event Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Ninna Reitzel; Schomacker, Kristian Juul

    2015-01-01

    Using a two-account model with event risk, we model life insurance contracts taking into account both guaranteed and non-guaranteed payments in participating life insurance as well as in unit-linked insurance. Here, event risk is used as a generic term for life insurance events, such as death......, disability, etc. In our treatment of participating life insurance, we have special focus on the bonus schemes “consolidation” and “additional benefits”, and one goal is to formalize how these work and interact. Another goal is to describe similarities and differences between participating life insurance...... model by conducting scenario analysis based on Monte Carlo simulation, but the model applies to scenarios in general and to worst-case and best-estimate scenarios in particular. In addition to easy computations, our model offers a common framework for the valuation of life insurance payments across...

  10. Scenario analysis of false indication in computer-control systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Highlights: ► A new failure mode and effect for safety-critical systems is proposed. ► False indication is the most dreadful kind of partial failures. ► A model-based simulation approach to generate failure scenarios is proposed. ► Simulation results showed that multiple errors may cause undesired consequences. ► An assertion-based method to detect false indication problems is provided. -- Abstract: Computer control may cause additional failure modes and effects that are new to analogue systems. False indication is one such failure mode that may bring unknown risks to a system. False indication refers to the problem when part of a system fails while other processes still work, and the failure is not revealed to operators. This paper presents a model-based simulation approach to systematically generate potential false indication and unintended consequences. Experiments showed that once a false indication occurs, it may have drastic effects on system safety. False indication can mislead the operator to perform adverse actions or no action. Therefore, we propose an assertion-based detection method to alleviate such failures. Our assertions contain process/device dependencies, timing relations and physical conservation rules. With these assertions, the operator may be alerted at run time. The proposed technique can reduce false indication problem. Moreover, it can also be used to assist the system design.

  11. Scenarios analysis based on CLUE model in of land use change Jiangxi Province by 2030%基于CLUE模型的2030年江西省土地利用变化情景分析

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    郭延凤; 于秀波; 姜鲁光; 查良松

    2012-01-01

    引入“一切照常情景”、“规划情景”和“优化情景”三种生态系统变化情景,采用CLUE模型,对江西省2001~2030年的土地利用空间变化进行模型模拟,并用2005年的土地利用现状图对模拟结果进行了验证。研究表明:在“一切照常情景”中,耕地持续减少;建设用地急剧增加;林地面积基本保持稳定。在“规划情景”中,耕地持续增加;建设用地略有增加,并在2020年后基本保持不变;林地总面积变化不大,但是高密度森林面积比重增大;河流和湖泊面积略微减少,湿地面积大幅增加。在“优化情景”中,森林增加趋势较“规划情景”有所减缓,河流和湖泊,湿地均有显著增加。本研究对研究区今后的土地利用规划修编和土地可持续性管理具有重要的指导意义。%Using CLUE (The Conversion of Land Use and its Effects) model based on GIS spatial analysis and statistics, this paper introduced three scenarios ("Business as Usual Scenario", "Planned Scenario" and "Optimal Scenario") to simulate the land use spatial change in Jiangxi Province from 2001 to 2030. The paper has developed three scenarios on land use change to conduct a comparative analysis. Scenarios provide an effective tool to assess the risks of current land use patterns and the policy options, and offer more comprehensive and meaningful scientific information to policy-makers from different approaches by taking various factors into account. As a result, scenario analysis plays a critical role in this study, where nine types of land use are identified to show what might take place under different scenarios. This model is applied to simulate the future land use scenarios in the next three decades, and to validate the simulated results with the land use map in 2005. The validation suggests that the model has accurately positioned the simulated results to an appropriate spatial

  12. The future role of alternative powertrains and fuels in the German transport sector. A model based scenario analysis with respect to technical, economic and environmental aspects with a focus on road transport

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The transport sector is facing the challenges of satisfying the ever increasing transport demand on the one hand and achieving greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction targets without compromising economic development on the other hand. There are various alternative fuels and powertrains which might play a role in the future of the German transport sector. Amongst these options, biofuels are considered to help lower GHG emissions. However, they are severely criticized to create an additional strain for the energy system and particularly for the transport sector with land area requirement for energy crop production, which may imply a competition with food production. This study aims to assess the future role of alternative fuels and powertrains in the German transport sector in terms of their costs, efficiencies, GHG emissions and land area requirement for energy crops. To fulfill this aim, a techno-economic analysis of all relevant fuels and powertrain options was performed and a model based approach was employed. The utilized model belongs to the TIMES (The Integrated MARKAL EFOM System) family and is a bottom-up linear cost optimization energy system model. A scenario analysis was employed in order to assess the effect of different technological, economic, environmental and political conditions on the overall system. The results of the scenario analysis indicated that the transport system will still be dominated by conventional powertrains in 2030. Alternative powertrains are projected to play only a secondary role until 2030. It is not expected that fuel cell or battery electric passenger cars will be introduced into the market until 2030 in Germany. Nevertheless, hybrid electric powertrains have to be used in the German passenger car sector under ambitious GHG emission reduction targets and high oil prices. The introduction of alternative powertrains (such as hybrid electric and fuel cell powertrain) is much more likely in the bus sector (especially for public

  13. Using Groupware to Build a Scenario-Based Early Warning System

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mullekom, T.L. van; Vennix, J.A.M.

    2004-01-01

    Scenario analysis has been used as a technique to support strategy formulation for several decades. During scenario analyses, the effects of different possible futures (scenarios) on the performance of an organization are assessed. Moreover, actions are formulated to deal with these effects. This an

  14. Interactive Design Method Based on Needs Analysis Scenario-Based Research Mission%基于使用场景进行任务需求分析的交互设计方法研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张晓东; 隋涌

    2016-01-01

    The design is for human services, prior to doing the design to the “person” of the basic factors. The mobile application product design interaction design changes to object to object tradition, directly to the user’s behavior as a design object. Method and usage scenarios are very easy to understand the description and analysis of user behavior, It is usually combined with “5W+H” to carry on the analysis: “Who, When, Where, What, Why, How”.%设计是为人服务的,在做设计之前要想好“人”这个基本因素。而移动应用产品设计中的交互设计改变了以物为对象的传统,直接把用户的使用行为作为设计对象。而使用场景是一种非常容易理解的分析和描述用户行为的方法,它通常结合六何分析法来进行分析:谁(Who),什么时间(When),在哪里(Where),发生了什么( What),为什么要这样( Why),如何解决( How)。

  15. Scenario-based design: A method for connecting information system design with public health operations and emergency management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reeder, Blaine; Turner, Anne M

    2011-01-01

    Responding to public health emergencies requires rapid and accurate assessment of workforce availability under adverse and changing circumstances. However, public health information systems to support resource management during both routine and emergency operations are currently lacking. We applied scenario-based design as an approach to engage public health practitioners in the creation and validation of an information design to support routine and emergency public health activities. Methods: Using semi-structured interviews we identified the information needs and activities of senior public health managers of a large municipal health department during routine and emergency operations. Results: Interview analysis identified twenty-five information needs for public health operations management. The identified information needs were used in conjunction with scenario-based design to create twenty-five scenarios of use and a public health manager persona. Scenarios of use and persona were validated and modified based on follow-up surveys with study participants. Scenarios were used to test and gain feedback on a pilot information system. Conclusion: The method of scenario-based design was applied to represent the resource management needs of senior-level public health managers under routine and disaster settings. Scenario-based design can be a useful tool for engaging public health practitioners in the design process and to validate an information system design. PMID:21807120

  16. Model Independent Framework for Analysis of Scenarios with Multiple Heavy Extra Quarks

    CERN Document Server

    Barducci, Daniele; Buchkremer, Mathieu; Cacciapaglia, Giacomo; Deandrea, Aldo; De Curtis, Stefania; Marrouche, Jad; Moretti, Stefano; Panizzi, Luca

    2014-01-01

    In this paper we present an analysis strategy and a dedicated tool to determine the exclusion confidence level for any scenario involving multiple heavy extra quarks with generic decay channels, as predicted in several extensions of the Standard Model. We have created, validated and used a software package, called XQCAT (eXtra Quark Combined Analysis Tool), which is based on publicly available experimental data from direct searches for top partners and from Supersymmetry inspired searches. The code will soon be publicly available and will be upgraded to include data from new searches. By means of this code, we recast the limits from CMS on new heavy extra quarks considering a complete set of decay channels. The resulting exclusion confidence levels are presented for some simple scenarios with multiple states and general coupling assumptions. Highlighting the importance of combining multiple topology searches to obtain accurate re-interpretations of the existing searches, we discuss the reach of the SUSY analy...

  17. Method-Based Higher Education in Sustainability: The Potential of the Scenario Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard Beecroft

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Both sustainability and education are challenging process-oriented objectives. When the aim is to combine both notions, as in Higher Education in Sustainability (HES, it is indispensable to first establish a common ground between them. In this paper, we characterise this common ground in terms of four aspects: future orientation, normativity, global perspective, and theory engaged in practice. Based on an analysis of the common ground, one method that is well-established in a wide range of sustainability sciences shows high potential for use in HES because it covers all four aspects in detail: the scenario method. We argue that a didactical reconstruction of the scenario method is necessary to utilise its potential and develop adequate forms of teaching in higher education. The scenario method is used to construct and analyse a set of alternative future developments to support decisions that have to be made in the present. Didactical reconstruction reveals a spectrum of objectives for which the scenario method can be employed: (1 projection; (2 teleological planning and (3 an explorative search for possibilities not yet considered. By studying and experimenting with this spectrum of objectives, students in HES can develop fundamental reflexive competencies in addressing the future in different ways that are relevant for both sustainability and education.

  18. Hydrogen Financial Analysis Scenario Tool (H2FAST). Web Tool User's Manual

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bush, B. [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Penev, M. [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Melaina, M. [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Zuboy, J. [Independent Consultant, Golden, CO (United States)

    2015-05-11

    The Hydrogen Financial Analysis Scenario Tool (H2FAST) provides a quick and convenient indepth financial analysis for hydrogen fueling stations. This manual describes how to use the H2FAST web tool, which is one of three H2FAST formats developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). Although all of the formats are based on the same financial computations and conform to generally accepted accounting principles (FASAB 2014, Investopedia 2014), each format provides a different level of complexity and user interactivity.

  19. Performance analysis of seismocardiography for heart sound signal recording in noisy scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jain, Puneet Kumar; Tiwari, Anil Kumar; Chourasia, Vijay S

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents a system based on Seismocardiography (SCG) to monitor the heart sound signal for the long-term. It uses an accelerometer, which is of small size and low weight and, thus, convenient to wear. Such a system should also be robust to various noises which occur in real life scenarios. Therefore, a detailed analysis is provided of the proposed system and its performance is compared to the performance of the Phoncardiography (PCG) system. For this purpose, both signals of five subjects were simultaneously recorded in clinical and different real life noisy scenarios. For the quantitative analysis, the detection rate of fundamental heart sound components, S1 and S2, is obtained. Furthermore, a quality index based on the energy of fundamental components is also proposed and obtained for the same. Results show that both the techniques are able to acquire the S1 and S2, in clinical set-up. However, in real life scenarios, we observed many favourable features in the proposed system as compared to PCG, for its use for long-term monitoring. PMID:26860039

  20. 40 CFR 68.28 - Alternative release scenario analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    .... 68.28 Section 68.28 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR... alternative release scenarios: (1) The five-year accident history provided in § 68.42; and (2) Failure... applicable as part of current practices. Proprietary models that account for the modeling conditions may...

  1. Development of a GIS-based Scenario Analysis System for Pesticide Groundwater Risk Assessment in China%我国农药地下水环境风险评估场景体系的建立

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    林绿; 覃志豪; 李文娟

    2014-01-01

    根据国际通用的标准场景和环境脆弱性概念,利用GIS技术,以我国气象、土壤、农业生产等数据为基础,构建农药环境风险评估过程“现实中最糟糕的情况”。针对旱地作物和地下水这一环境系统,将我国划分为6个农药地下水环境风险评估场景区,并在此基础上构建了11个标准场景点,从而形成针对旱地作物的我国农药地下水环境风险评估场景体系。利用欧盟农药环境暴露模型PEARL测试该场景体系,运行结果显示该场景体系科学可行。该场景体系的建立既为运用定量模型进行我国农药环境风险评估奠定了重要基础,也为我国农药环境风险管理、农药登记管理工作提供了技术支持和科学依据。%Pesticide environmental risk assessment is a key part of pesticide registration process. Here we applied the concept of standard scenario system developed by the European Union(EU)to groundwater risk assessment of pesticides used in dryland crops. Precipita-tion, temperature, soil organic matter and pesticide application ways were all considered as the main factors affecting environmental behav-iors and soil concentrations of pesticides. Based on meteorological, soil and agricultural production data, a GIS approach was adopted to es-tablish the standard scenario systems. They consisted of 6 scenario zones and 11 standard scenarios. The PEARL model developed by the EU for simulation of pesticide environmental risk was employed to test the established scenarios. The simulation showed pesticide Aldicarb had high environmental risk but Atrazin and Oxadixyl was relatively safe. These results show that the established scenarios would be useful for enhancing the efficiency of pesticide registration.

  2. Scenario-Based Digital Forensics Challenges in Cloud Computing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erik Miranda Lopez

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The aim of digital forensics is to extract information to answer the 5Ws (Why, When, Where, What, and Who from the data extracted from the evidence. In order to achieve this, most digital forensic processes assume absolute control of digital evidence. However, in a cloud environment forensic investigation, this is not always possible. Additionally, the unique characteristics of cloud computing create new technical, legal and architectural challenges when conducting a forensic investigation. We propose a hypothetical scenario to uncover and explain the challenges forensic practitioners face during cloud investigations. Additionally, we also provide solutions to address the challenges. Our hypothetical case scenario has shown that, in the long run, better live forensic tools, development of new methods tailored for cloud investigations and new procedures and standards are indeed needed. Furthermore, we have come to the conclusion that forensic investigations biggest challenge is not technical but legal.

  3. Study on the scenario of the fire incident and related analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    On March 11,1997, Bituminization Demonstration Facility (BDF) of PNC Tokai Works made fire and explosion incident. As soon as the Incident Investigation Committee was established and began its activity just after the incident, we PNC also began our investigation of the damage, operational records, and everything considered useful to study cause of the incident to contribute to the committee. The cause is not yet completely clarified, but it is now believed that the fire occurred as a result of several unfavorable operational condition changes and that the cause is so complicated. Such operational condition changes are slower feed rate of waste solution, higher extruder torque, higher extruder temperature, introduction of precipitation from the bottom of waste solution vessel, and so on. Based on the investigation and study of much data, an assumable scenario has been developed. This report describes PNC 's view, as of middle October 1997, on the scenario of the fire incident and result of related analysis. (authors)

  4. SWAT meta-modeling as support of the management scenario analysis in large watersheds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azzellino, A; Çevirgen, S; Giupponi, C; Parati, P; Ragusa, F; Salvetti, R

    2015-01-01

    In the last two decades, numerous models and modeling techniques have been developed to simulate nonpoint source pollution effects. Most models simulate the hydrological, chemical, and physical processes involved in the entrainment and transport of sediment, nutrients, and pesticides. Very often these models require a distributed modeling approach and are limited in scope by the requirement of homogeneity and by the need to manipulate extensive data sets. Physically based models are extensively used in this field as a decision support for managing the nonpoint source emissions. A common characteristic of this type of model is a demanding input of several state variables that makes the calibration and effort-costing in implementing any simulation scenario more difficult. In this study the USDA Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to model the Venice Lagoon Watershed (VLW), Northern Italy. A Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) network was trained on SWAT simulations and used as a meta-model for scenario analysis. The MLP meta-model was successfully trained and showed an overall accuracy higher than 70% both on the training and on the evaluation set, allowing a significant simplification in conducting scenario analysis.

  5. Infectious disease, development, and climate change, A scenario analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Tol, R.S.J.; Ebi, K L; Yohe, G. W.

    2007-01-01

    We study the effects of development and climate change on infectious disease in Sub-Saharan Africa. Infant mortality and infectious disease are close related, but there are better data for the former. In an international cross-section, per capita income, literacy, and absolute poverty significantly affect infant mortality. We use scenarios of these three determinants, and of climate change to project the future incidence of malaria, assuming it to change proportionally to infant mortality. Ma...

  6. Joint Environmental and Economical Analysis of Wastewater Treatment Plants Control Strategies: A Benchmark Scenario Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Montse Meneses

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, a joint environmental and economic analysis of different Wastewater Treatment Plant (WWTP control strategies is carried out. The assessment is based on the application of the Life Cycle Assessment (LCA as a method to evaluate the environmental impact and the Benchmark Simulation Model No. 1 (BSM1. The BSM1 is taken as the benchmark scenario used to implement the control strategies. The Effluent Quality Index (EQI and the Overall Cost Index (OCI are two indicators provided by BSM1 and used to evaluate the plant’s performance from the effluent quality and the economic points of view, respectively. This work conducts a combined analysis and assessment of ten different control strategies defined to operate a wastewater treatment plant. This analysis includes the usual economic and performance indexes provided by BSM1 joined with the LCA analysis that determines the environmental impact linked to each one of the considered control strategies. It is shown how to get an overall evaluation of the environmental effects by using a normalized graphical representation that can be easily used to compare control strategies from the environmental impact point of view. The use of only the BSM1 indexes provides an assessment that leads to a clustering of control strategies according to the cost/quality tradeoff they show. Therefore, regarding the cost/quality tradeoff, all strategies in the same group are almost equal and do not provide an indication on how to proceed in order to select the appropriate one. It is therefore shown how the fact of adding a new, complementary, evaluation (LCA based allows either to reinforce a decision that could be taken solely on the basis of the EQI/OCI tradeoff or to select one control strategy among the others.

  7. Information for policy makers 2. Analysis of the EU's energy roadmap 2050 scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Foerster, Hannah; Healy, Sean; Loreck, Charlotte; Matthes, Felix [Oeko-Institut e.V. - Institut fuer Angewandte Oekologie, Freiburg im Breisgau (Germany); Fischedick, Manfred; Lechtenboehmer, Stefan; Samadi, Sascha; Venjakob, Johannes [Wuppertal Institut (Germany)

    2012-05-15

    With growing concerns about climate change, energy import dependency and increasing fuel costs, a political consensus has formed in Europe in recent years about the need to transform the way we supply and consume energy. However, there is less political consensus on the specific steps that need to be taken in order to achieve a future sustainable energy system. Questions about which technologies should be used to what extent and how fast changes in the energy system should be instituted are being discussed on the European Union as well as on the Member State level. Energy scenarios are seen as a helpful tool to guide and inform these discussions. Several scenario studies on the European energy system have been released in recent years by stakeholders like environmental NGOs and industry associations. A number of these studies have recently been analysed by the Oeko-Institut and the Wuppertal Institute within an ongoing project commissioned by the Smart Energy for Europe Platform (SEFEF). The project aims to advance the debate on the decarbonisation of the energy system in the EU as well as its Member States during the course of 2012 and to make contributions to the scientific literature on this topic. Analysis within the project focuses on the development of the electricity system, as this system today is the main source for CO{sub 2} emissions and is widely regarded to be the key to any future decarbonisation pathway. The paper at hand summarises the analyses accomplished based on scenarios developed within the recently released Energy Roadmap 2050 of the European Union. The Roadmap explores different energy system pathways, which are compatible with the EU's long-term climate targets. It is a highly influential publication and will play a significant role in determining what will follow the EU's 2020 energy agenda. The Roadmap's analysis is currently discussed by EU and Member States policymakers as well as by stakeholders throughout Europe

  8. Biomethane production system: Energetic analysis of various scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Bin; Zhang, Xiangping; Bao, Di; Xu, Yajing; Zhang, Suojiang; Deng, Liyuan

    2016-04-01

    The energy consumption models of biomethane production system were established, which are more rigorous and universal than the empirical data reported by previous biomethane system energetic assessment work. The energy efficiencies of different scenarios considering factors such as two digestion modes, two heating modes of digester, with or without heat exchange between slurry and feedstock, and four crude biogas upgrading technologies were evaluated. Results showed the scenario employing thermophilic digestion and high pressure water scrubbing technology, with heat exchange between feedstock and slurry, and heat demand of digester supplied by the energy source outside the system has the highest energy efficiency (46.5%) and lowest energy consumption (13.46 MJth/Nm(3) CH4), while scenario employing mesophilic digestion and pressure swing adsorption technology, without heat exchange and heat demand of digester supplied by combusting the biogas produced inside the system has the lowest energy efficiency (15.8%) and highest energy consumption (34.90 MJth/Nm(3) CH4). PMID:26855289

  9. Model-based Evaluation of Location-based Relaying Policies in a Realistic Mobile Indoor Scenario

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jimmy Jessen; Olsen, Rasmus Løvenstein; Madsen, Tatiana Kozlova;

    2012-01-01

    developed Markov Chain model for a realistic indoor scenario that is based on ray-tracing enriched measurements from the WHERE2 project. These results are furthermore compared to results obtained using an idealistic path loss model, and it is shown that the performance impact of node mobility and...

  10. "The Strawberry Caper": Using Scenario-Based Problem Solving to Integrate Middle School Science Topics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonda, Rebecca L.; DeHart, Kyle; Ashman, Tia-Lynn; Legg, Alison Slinskey

    2015-01-01

    Achieving a deep understanding of the many topics covered in middle school biology classes is difficult for many students. One way to help students learn these topics is through scenario-based learning, which enhances students' performance. The scenario-based problem-solving module presented here, "The Strawberry Caper," not only…

  11. Risk analysis for confined space entries: Critical analysis of four tools applied to three risk scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burlet-Vienney, Damien; Chinniah, Yuvin; Bahloul, Ali; Roberge, Brigitte

    2016-06-01

    Investigation reports of fatal confined space accidents nearly always point to a problem of identifying or underestimating risks. This paper compares 4 different risk analysis tools developed for confined spaces by applying them to 3 hazardous scenarios. The tools were namely 1. a checklist without risk estimation (Tool A), 2. a checklist with a risk scale (Tool B), 3. a risk calculation without a formal hazard identification stage (Tool C), and 4. a questionnaire followed by a risk matrix (Tool D). Each tool's structure and practical application were studied. Tools A and B gave crude results comparable to those of more analytic tools in less time. Their main limitations were lack of contextual information for the identified hazards and greater dependency on the user's expertise and ability to tackle hazards of different nature. Tools C and D utilized more systematic approaches than tools A and B by supporting risk reduction based on the description of the risk factors. Tool D is distinctive because of 1. its comprehensive structure with respect to the steps suggested in risk management, 2. its dynamic approach to hazard identification, and 3. its use of data resulting from the risk analysis. PMID:26864350

  12. Case studies of scenario analysis for adaptive management of natural resource and infrastructure systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hamilton, M.C.; Thekdi, S.A.; Jenicek, E.M.;

    2013-01-01

    of emergent conditions and help to avoid regret and belated action. The purpose of this paper is to present several case studies in natural resources and infrastructure systems management where scenario analysis has been used to aide decision making under uncertainty. The case studies include several resource...... to scenario analysis provides insight into both high-performing and robust initiatives/policies, and, perhaps more importantly, influential scenarios. Identifying the scenarios that are most influential to policy making helps to direct further investigative analysis, modeling, and data-collection efforts......Management of natural resources and infrastructure systems for sustainability is complicated by uncertainties in the human and natural environment. Moreover, decisions are further complicated by contradictory views, values, and concerns that are rarely made explicit. Scenario analysis can play...

  13. The role of scenario analysis in water resources management in Yanqi Basin, Xinjiang, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, N.; Kinzelbach, W. K.; Li, W.; Dong, X.

    2011-12-01

    With the rapid increase of world population and food demand, the demand for water resources is also increasing. At the same time shifts in rain patterns due to global climate change make the water resources situation more uncertain. A global water crisis can therefore not be excluded. The socio-economic and environmental problems induced by such a water crisis are especially prominent in arid and semiarid regions. The Yanqi Basin in Xinjiang province is a typical case study in China's arid and semi-arid areas, where rainfall is scarce and evaporation is extremely high. Thus its water resources have been under great pressure to satisfy the increasing water demand of agriculture and urban and industrial expansion in the last decades. The development has been accompanied by a number of environmental problems. Yanqi Basin is an important cultivated area which is irrigated by water diverted from rivers. Because of the long-term flood irrigation and an inefficient drainage system, the groundwater level under the cultivated area rose, accelerating the phreatic evaporation and leading to increased soil salinization. Simultaneously, the water quantity and quality of Boston Lake have been impaired in past years because of the decreased river discharge and the increased salt flux contained in the drainage discharge. Thus the ecosystems depending on the inflow to and outflow from the lake suffered. The riverine forests in the downstream area were degraded due to declining groundwater levels, and aquatic life as well as downstream water users had to cope with deteriorating water quality. The big challenge for decision makers in the basin is how to balance the justified requirements of agriculture, industrial development and the ecosystem. In order to provide a scientific basis to the decision making process, a scenario analysis was adopted. Here several scenarios are proposed: the basic scenario, scenario 1, describes the status of the year 2008. A second scenario maximizes the

  14. Evaluating adaptation options for urban flooding based on new high-end emission scenario regional climate model simulations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Leonardsen, L.; Madsen, Henrik

    2015-01-01

    Climate change adaptation studies on urban flooding are often based on a model chain approach from climate forcing scenarios to analysis of adaptation measures. Previous analyses of climate change impacts in Copenhagen, Denmark, were supplemented by 2 high-end scenario simulations. These include...... not seem to change substantially compared to currently applied projections. The flood risk (in terms of expected annual damage, EAD) from sea surge is likely to increase by more than 2 orders of magnitude in 2100 compared to the present cost. The risk from pluvial flooding in 2000 is likely to increase...... to pluvial flooding that makes the urban areas more robust and reduces the risk of flooding under the current climate to a very low level. The reduction in flood risk for the A1B scenario is substantial (corresponding to 0.2-0.3 times the current EAD in 2100), and even in the high-end scenarios, the risk...

  15. Validation and Scenario Analysis of a Soil Organic Carbon Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    HUANG Yao; LIU Shi-liang; SHEN Qi-rong; ZONG Liang-gang; JIANG Ding-an; HUANG Hong-guang

    2002-01-01

    A model developed by the authors was validated against independent data sets. The data sets were obtained from field experiments of crop residue decomposition and a 7-year soil improvement in Yixing City, Jiangsu Province. Model validation indicated that soil organic carbon dynamics can be simulated from the weather variables of temperature, sunlight and precipitation, soil clay content and bulk density, grain yield of previous crops, qualities and quantities of the added organic matter. Model simulation in general agreed with the measurements. The comparison between computed and measured resulted in correlation coefficient γ2 values of 0.9291 * * * (n = 48) and 0. 6431 * * (n = 65) for the two experiments, respectively. Model prediction under three scenarios of no additional organic matter input, with an annual incorporation of rice and wheat straw at rates of 6.75t/ha and 9.0t/ha suggested that the soil organic carbon in Wanshi Township of Yixing City would be from an initial value of 7.85g/kg in 1983 to 6.30g/kg, 11.42g/kg and 13g/kg in 2014, respectively. Consequently, total nitrogen content of the soil was predicted to be respectively 0.49g/kg,0.89g/kg and 1.01g/kg under the three scenarios.

  16. Development of scenario based training environment by mixed reality system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    We developed a support system for maintenance training of electric power facilities by Mixed Reality. A user of the system wears a Head-Mounted Display (HMD) with a small camera, puts a sensor on top of one's head and stands in front of a blue screen. The system recognizes an object and estimates its position and pose from an image that is captured by the small camera. The object recognition and the position-pose estimation are performed by image processing. after the object recognition and the position-pose estimation, the system overlays computer graphics to the object images. The computer graphics show operational guidance, instructions, or dynamic inside movements of the object on the HMD. In this paper, we describe an outline of the system and validation results of the system functions by several training scenarios. the validation results show that the support system can be used as an educational training tool of novice engineers. (author)

  17. Hydrogen Financial Analysis Scenario Tool (H2FAST); NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Melaina, Marc

    2015-04-21

    This presentation describes the Hydrogen Financial Analysis Scenario Tool, H2FAST, and provides an overview of each of the three H2FAST formats: the H2FAST web tool, the H2FAST Excel spreadsheet, and the H2FAST Business Case Scenario (BCS) tool. Examples are presented to illustrate the types of questions that H2FAST can help answer.

  18. Radiation Detection Scenario Analysis Toolbox (RADSAT) Test Case Implementation Final Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shaver, Mark W.

    2010-09-27

    Final report for the project. This project was designed to demonstrate the use of the Radiation Detection Scenario Analysis Toolbox (RADSAT) radiation detection transport modeling package (developed in a previous NA-22 project) for specific radiation detection scenarios important to proliferation detection.

  19. Overview of the Hydrogen Financial Analysis Scenario Tool (H2FAST); NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Melaina, Marc; Bush, Brian; Penev, Michael

    2015-05-12

    This presentation provides an introduction to the Hydrogen Financial Analysis Scenario Tool (H2FAST) and includes an overview of each of the three versions of H2FAST: the Web tool, the Excel spreadsheet version, and the beta version of the H2FAST Business Case Scenario tool.

  20. Scenario based seismic hazard assessment and its application to the seismic verification of relevant buildings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romanelli, Fabio; Vaccari, Franco; Altin, Giorgio; Panza, Giuliano

    2016-04-01

    The procedure we developed, and applied to a few relevant cases, leads to the seismic verification of a building by: a) use of a scenario based neodeterministic approach (NDSHA) for the calculation of the seismic input, and b) control of the numerical modeling of an existing building, using free vibration measurements of the real structure. The key point of this approach is the strict collaboration, from the seismic input definition to the monitoring of the response of the building in the calculation phase, of the seismologist and the civil engineer. The vibrometry study allows the engineer to adjust the computational model in the direction suggested by the experimental result of a physical measurement. Once the model has been calibrated by vibrometric analysis, one can select in the design spectrum the proper range of periods of interest for the structure. Then, the realistic values of spectral acceleration, which include the appropriate amplification obtained through the modeling of a "scenario" input to be applied to the final model, can be selected. Generally, but not necessarily, the "scenario" spectra lead to higher accelerations than those deduced by taking the spectra from the national codes (i.e. NTC 2008, for Italy). The task of the verifier engineer is to act so that the solution of the verification is conservative and realistic. We show some examples of the application of the procedure to some relevant (e.g. schools) buildings of the Trieste Province. The adoption of the scenario input has given in most of the cases an increase of critical elements that have to be taken into account in the design of reinforcements. However, the higher cost associated with the increase of elements to reinforce is reasonable, especially considering the important reduction of the risk level.

  1. A Two-Account Life Insurance Model for Scenario-Based Valuation Including Event Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ninna Reitzel Jensen

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Using a two-account model with event risk, we model life insurance contracts taking into account both guaranteed and non-guaranteed payments in participating life insurance as well as in unit-linked insurance. Here, event risk is used as a generic term for life insurance events, such as death, disability, etc. In our treatment of participating life insurance, we have special focus on the bonus schemes “consolidation” and “additional benefits”, and one goal is to formalize how these work and interact. Another goal is to describe similarities and differences between participating life insurance and unit-linked insurance. By use of a two-account model, we are able to illustrate general concepts without making the model too abstract. To allow for complicated financial markets without dramatically increasing the mathematical complexity, we focus on economic scenarios. We illustrate the use of our model by conducting scenario analysis based on Monte Carlo simulation, but the model applies to scenarios in general and to worst-case and best-estimate scenarios in particular. In addition to easy computations, our model offers a common framework for the valuation of life insurance payments across product types. This enables comparison of participating life insurance products and unit-linked insurance products, thus building a bridge between the two different ways of formalizing life insurance products. Finally, our model distinguishes itself from the existing literature by taking into account the Markov model for the state of the policyholder and, hereby, facilitating event risk.

  2. Agent-based simulation of alternative classroom evacuation scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Runjiao Liu

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Due to the growing number of emergency accidents occurring around students, evacuation issues have become significantly important for both school officials and architects. Simply following construction codes cannot ensure that a building׳s layout is suitable for evacuation behaviors; therefore, to discover the suitable planning schemes, we have introduced an agent-based simulation model via Netlogo to investigate the interrelationships between evacuation efficiency and classroom layouts. Before conducting modeling experiments, both the simulation structure and the sensitivity to its parameter settings are examined by validation research and sensitivity analysis. Furthermore, to demonstrate the importance of conducting fire drills with students, two different types of behavior rules are designed to reflect the distinctive characteristics of students evacuating without instructions and students evacuating in good order. The general comparison results show us that the classroom layout with two exits shortens students׳ evacuation time, and the premeditated behavior rules, meaning that students who follow preset instructions to arrange their activities, not only escape faster but also have some advantages in ensuring their safety during the evacuation process. Moreover, at the end of this paper, several methods of improving this simulation model are proposed for more complex research in the future.

  3. The Design and Effect of Automated Directions During Scenario-based Training

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Peeters, Marieke; Bosch, Karel van den; Meyer, John-Jules Ch.; Neerincx, Mark A.

    2014-01-01

    During scenario-based training, the scenario is dynamically adapted in real time to control the storyline and increase its effectiveness. A team of experienced staff members is required to manage and perform the adaptations. They manipulate the storyline and the level of support during their role-pl

  4. The design and effect of automated directions during scenario-based training

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Peeters, M.M.M.; Bosch, K. van den; Meyer, J.J.C.; Neerincx, M.A.

    2014-01-01

    During scenario-based training, the scenario is dynamically adapted in real time to control the storyline and increase its effectiveness. A team of experienced staff members is required to manage and perform the adaptations. They manipulate the storyline and the level of support during their role-pl

  5. Scenario analysis of the impacts of forest management and climate change on the European forest sector carbon budget

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Karjalainen, T.; Pusinen, A.; Liski, J.; Nabuurs, G.J.; Eggers, T.; Lapveteläinen, T.; Kaipainen, T.

    2003-01-01

    Analysis of the impacts of forest management and climate change on the European forest sector carbon budget between 1990 and 2050 are presented in this article. Forest inventory based carbon budgeting with large scale scenario modelling was used. Altogether 27 countries and 128.5 million hectare of

  6. Scenario-Based Sustainability Assessment to Provide Interactive Decision Support for the Long-Term Transition of Urban Water Supply Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Aydin, Nazli Yonca

    2014-01-01

    This dissertation focuses on the evaluation of technical and environmental sustainability of water distribution systems based on scenario analysis. The decision support system is created to assist in the decision making-process and to visualize the results of the sustainability assessment for current and future populations and scenarios. First, a methodology is developed to assess the technical and environmental sustainability for the current and future water distribution system scenarios. Th...

  7. Scenario based optimization of a container vessel with respect to its projected operating conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wagner Jonas

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper the scenario based optimization of the bulbous bow of the KRISO Container Ship (KCS is presented. The optimization of the parametrically modeled vessel is based on a statistically developed operational profile generated from noon-to-noon reports of a comparable 3600 TEU container vessel and specific development functions representing the growth of global economy during the vessels service time. In order to consider uncertainties, statistical fluctuations are added. An analysis of these data lead to a number of most probable upcoming operating conditions (OC the vessel will stay in the future. According to their respective likeliness an objective function for the evaluation of the optimal design variant of the vessel is derived and implemented within the parametrical optimization workbench FRIENDSHIP Framework. In the following this evaluation is done with respect to vessel’s calculated effective power based on the usage of potential flow code. The evaluation shows, that the usage of scenarios within the optimization process has a strong influence on the hull form.

  8. The Development Framework for Scenario-based Goal Modeling%基于剧本的目标模型开发框架

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    林涛; 应晶

    2000-01-01

    Beginning with recent issues in requirement engineering,this paper proposes a development framework for scenario-based goal modeling(SBGMF),which integrates with scenario management to goal modeling successfully, and supports elaboration, analysis, validation and corporation, and stimulates the mechanism of requirement tracing and component reusing. The paper addresses the structure and functions of the framework SBGMF.

  9. Accessing technical data bases using STDS: A collection of scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hardgrave, W. T.

    1975-01-01

    A line by line description is given of sessions using the set-theoretic data system (STDS) to interact with technical data bases. The data bases contain data from actual applications at NASA Langley Research Center. The report is meant to be a tutorial document that accompanies set processing in a network environment.

  10. Proposed methodology for completion of scenario analysis for the Basalt Waste Isolation Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This report presents the methodology to complete an assessment of postclosure performance, considering all credible scenarios, including the nominal case, for a proposed repository for high-level nuclear waste at the Hanford Site, Washington State. The methodology consists of defensible techniques for identifying and screening scenarios, and for then assessing the risks associated with each. The results of the scenario analysis are used to comprehensively determine system performance and/or risk for evaluation of compliance with postclosure performance criteria (10 CFR 60 and 40 CFR 191). In addition to describing the proposed methodology, this report reviews available methodologies for scenario analysis, discusses pertinent performance assessment and uncertainty concepts, advises how to implement the methodology (including the organizational requirements and a description of tasks) and recommends how to use the methodology in guiding future site characterization, analysis, and engineered subsystem design work. 36 refs., 24 figs., 1 tab

  11. Mannich Bases: An Important Pharmacophore in Present Scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suman Bala

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Mannich bases are the end products of Mannich reaction and are known as beta-amino ketone carrying compounds. Mannich reaction is a carbon-carbon bond forming nucleophilic addition reaction and is a key step in synthesis of a wide variety of natural products, pharmaceuticals, and so forth. Mannich reaction is important for the construction of nitrogen containing compounds. There is a number of aminoalkyl chain bearing Mannich bases like fluoxetine, atropine, ethacrynic acid, trihexyphenidyl, and so forth with high curative value. The literature studies enlighten the fact that Mannich bases are very reactive and recognized to possess potent diverse activities like anti-inflammatory, anticancer, antifilarial, antibacterial, antifungal, anticonvulsant, anthelmintic, antitubercular, analgesic, anti-HIV, antimalarial, antipsychotic, antiviral activities and so forth. The biological activity of Mannich bases is mainly attributed to α, β-unsaturated ketone which can be generated by deamination of hydrogen atom of the amine group.

  12. The analysis of historical earthquakes of the North Anatolian Fault in the Marmara Region, Turkey for the last 15 centuries based on intensity and continuous Coulomb scenarios: Implications for the fault geometry and the interaction of individual earthqua

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yaltırak, Cenk; Şahin, Murat

    2016-04-01

    In this study we evaluated the historical earthquakes of the Marmara Region totally in three-stages. In first stage, historical earthquakes were compiled from the available catalogues and classified according to their spatial distribution, whereas only the ones, related with the active northern branch of the North Anatolian Fault (NAF) were selected. Then, the next phase of classification was made to relate historical data to the ancient and historical settlements, for which a kind of shake map was produced for each event. In the second stage, three different fault models, suggested for the geometry of the NAF in the Marmara Region, were integrated into a GIS database. Mw magnitudes were calculated for each fault segment by using lengths, seismogenic depths, and slip-rates of fault segments. In the third stage, the revised digital geological map of the Marmara Region were compiled based on 1:500k conventional maps and were used to estimate the Vs30 distribution within a grid of 750x750 m. Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) maps were produced for each earthquake scenario, depending on the geometry of different fault models, calculated model magnitudes and intensity distributions. Moreover, we tested the surface ruptures of each earthquake scenarios by using the Coulomb stress change model for historical data covering a time era between AD 478 and 2016 in assumption with a constant horizontal slip rate of 19 mma-1 for all fault segments. As conclusion, the horsetail-fault geometry (Yaltırak, 2002) among all 3 fault models yielded the best fit to the distribution of intensities and coulomb models.

  13. Forest Policy Scenario Analysis: Sensitivity of Songbird Community to Changes in Forest Cover Amount and Configuration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jim Baker

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available Changes in mature forest cover amount, composition, and configuration can be of significant consequence to wildlife populations. The response of wildlife to forest patterns is of concern to forest managers because it lies at the heart of such competing approaches to forest planning as aggregated vs. dispersed harvest block layouts. In this study, we developed a species assessment framework to evaluate the outcomes of forest management scenarios on biodiversity conservation objectives. Scenarios were assessed in the context of a broad range of forest structures and patterns that would be expected to occur under natural disturbance and succession processes. Spatial habitat models were used to predict the effects of varying degrees of mature forest cover amount, composition, and configuration on habitat occupancy for a set of 13 focal songbird species. We used a spatially explicit harvest scheduling program to model forest management options and simulate future forest conditions resulting from alternative forest management scenarios, and used a process-based fire-simulation model to simulate future forest conditions resulting from natural wildfire disturbance. Spatial pattern signatures were derived for both habitat occupancy and forest conditions, and these were placed in the context of the simulated range of natural variation. Strategic policy analyses were set in the context of current Ontario forest management policies. This included use of sequential time-restricted harvest blocks (created for Woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus conservation and delayed harvest areas (created for American marten (Martes americana atrata conservation. This approach increased the realism of the analysis, but reduced the generality of interpretations. We found that forest management options that create linear strips of old forest deviate the most from simulated natural patterns, and had the greatest negative effects on habitat occupancy, whereas policy options

  14. Scenario design and basic analysis of the National Data Centre Preparedness Exercise 2013

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ross, Ole; Ceranna, Lars; Hartmann, Gernot; Gestermann, Nicolai; Bönneman, Christian

    2014-05-01

    The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) prohibits all kinds of nuclear explosions. For the detection of treaty violations the International Monitoring System (IMS) operates stations observing seismic, hydroacoustic, and infrasound signals as well as radioisotopes in the atmosphere. While the IMS data is collected, processed and technically analyzed in the International Data Center (IDC) of the CTBT-Organization, National Data Centers (NDC) provide interpretation and advice to their government concerning suspicious detections occurring in IMS data. NDC Preparedness Exercises (NPE) are regularly performed dealing with fictitious treaty violations to practice the combined analysis of CTBT verification technologies and for the mutual exchange of information between NDC and also with the IDC. The NPE2010 and NPE2012 trigger scenarios were based on selected seismic events from the Reviewed Event Bulletin (REB) serving as starting point for fictitious Radionuclide dispersion. The main task was the identification of the original REB event and the discrimination between earthquakes and explosions as source. The scenario design of NPE2013 differs from those of previous NPEs. The waveform event selection is not constrained to events in the REB. The exercise trigger is a combination of a tempo-spatial indication pointing to a certain waveform event and simulated radionuclide concentrations generated by forward Atmospheric Transport Modelling based on a fictitious release. For the waveform event the date (4 Sept. 2013) is given and the region is communicated in a map showing the fictitious state of "Frisia" at the Coast of the North Sea in Central Europe. The synthetic radionuclide detections start in Vienna (8 Sept, I-131) and Schauinsland (11 Sept, Xe-133) with rather low activity concentrations and are most prominent in Stockholm and Spitsbergen mid of September 2013. Smaller concentrations in Asia follow later on. The potential connection between the waveform and

  15. Analysis of advanced European nuclear fuel cycle scenarios including transmutation and economic estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Highlights: • Four fuel cycle scenarios have been analyzed in resources and economic terms. • Scenarios involve Once-Through, Pu burning, and MA transmutation strategies. • No restrictions were found in terms of uranium and plutonium availability. • The best case cost and the impact of their uncertainties to the LCOE were analyzed. - Abstract: Four European fuel cycle scenarios involving transmutation options (in coherence with PATEROS and CP-ESFR EU projects) have been addressed from a point of view of resources utilization and economic estimates. Scenarios include: (i) the current fleet using Light Water Reactor (LWR) technology and open fuel cycle, (ii) full replacement of the initial fleet with Fast Reactors (FR) burning U–Pu MOX fuel, (iii) closed fuel cycle with Minor Actinide (MA) transmutation in a fraction of the FR fleet, and (iv) closed fuel cycle with MA transmutation in dedicated Accelerator Driven Systems (ADS). All scenarios consider an intermediate period of GEN-III+ LWR deployment and they extend for 200 years, looking for long term equilibrium mass flow achievement. The simulations were made using the TREVOL code, capable to assess the management of the nuclear mass streams in the scenario as well as economics for the estimation of the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) and other costs. Results reveal that all scenarios are feasible according to nuclear resources demand (natural and depleted U, and Pu). Additionally, we have found as expected that the FR scenario reduces considerably the Pu inventory in repositories compared to the reference scenario. The elimination of the LWR MA legacy requires a maximum of 55% fraction (i.e., a peak value of 44 FR units) of the FR fleet dedicated to transmutation (MA in MOX fuel, homogeneous transmutation) or an average of 28 units of ADS plants (i.e., a peak value of 51 ADS units). Regarding the economic analysis, the main usefulness of the provided economic results is for relative comparison of

  16. TRIDEC Cloud - a Web-based Platform for Tsunami Early Warning tested with NEAMWave14 Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hammitzsch, Martin; Spazier, Johannes; Reißland, Sven; Necmioglu, Ocal; Comoglu, Mustafa; Ozer Sozdinler, Ceren; Carrilho, Fernando; Wächter, Joachim

    2015-04-01

    the European scale. The TRIDEC Cloud has not been involved officially in Part B of the NEAMWave14 scenarios. However, the scenarios have been used by GFZ, KOERI, and IPMA for testing in exercise runs on October 27-28, 2014. Additionally, the Greek NEAMWave14 scenario has been tested in an exercise run by GFZ only on October 29, 2014 (see ICG/NEAMTWS-XI/13). The exercise runs demonstrated that operators in warning centres and stakeholders of other involved parties just need a standard web browser to access a full-fledged TEWS. The integration of GPU accelerated tsunami simulation computations have been an integral part to foster early warning with on-demand tsunami predictions based on actual source parameters. Thus tsunami travel times, estimated times of arrival and estimated wave heights are available immediately for visualization and for further analysis and processing. The generation of warning messages is based on internationally agreed message structures and includes static and dynamic information based on earthquake information, instant computations of tsunami simulations, and actual measurements. Generated messages are served for review, modification, and addressing in one simple form for dissemination via Cloud Messages, Shared Maps, e-mail, FTP/GTS, SMS, and FAX. Cloud Messages and Shared Maps are complementary channels and integrate interactive event and simulation data. Thus recipients are enabled to interact dynamically with a map and diagrams beyond traditional text information.

  17. Six scenarios of exploiting an ontology based, mobilized learning environment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    G. Kismihók; I. Szabó; R. Vas

    2012-01-01

    In this article, six different exploitation possibilities of an educational ontology based, mobilized learning management system are presented. The focal point of this system is the educational ontology model. The first version of this educational ontology model serves as a foundation for curriculum

  18. Product design pattern based on big data-driven scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Conggang Yu

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available This article discusses about new product design patterns in the big data era, gives designer a new rational thinking way, and is a new way to understand the design of the product. Based on the key criteria of the product design process, category, element, and product are used to input the data, which comprises concrete data and abstract data as an enlargement of the criteria of product design process for the establishment of a big data-driven product design pattern’s model. Moreover, an experiment and a product design case are conducted to verify the feasibility of the new pattern. Ultimately, we will conclude that the data-driven product design has two patterns: one is the concrete data supporting the product design, namely “product–data–product” pattern, and the second is based on the value of the abstract data for product design, namely “data–product–data” pattern. Through the data, users are involving themselves in the design development process. Data and product form a huge network, and data plays a role of connection or node. So the essence of the design is to find a new connection based on element, and to find a new node based on category.

  19. Ground surface temperature scenarios in complex high-mountain topography based on regional climate model results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salzmann, Nadine; NöTzli, Jeannette; Hauck, Christian; Gruber, Stephan; Hoelzle, Martin; Haeberli, Wilfried

    2007-06-01

    Climate change can have severe impacts on the high-mountain cryosphere, such as instabilities in rock walls induced by thawing permafrost. Relating climate change scenarios produced from global climate models (GCMs) and regional climate models (RCMs) to complex high-mountain environments is a challenging task. The qualitative and quantitative impact of changes in climatic conditions on local to microscale ground surface temperature (GST) and the ground thermal regime is not readily apparent. This study assesses a possible range of changes in the GST (ΔGST) in complex mountain topography. To account for uncertainties associated with RCM output, a set of 12 different scenario climate time series (including 10 RCM-based and 2 incremental scenarios) was applied to the topography and energy balance (TEBAL) model to simulate average ΔGST for 36 different topographic situations. Variability of the simulated ΔGST is related primarily to the emission scenarios, the RCM, and the approach used to apply RCM results to the impact model. In terms of topography, significant influence on GST simulation was shown by aspect because it modifies the received amount of solar radiation at the surface. North faces showed higher sensitivity to the applied climate scenarios, while uncertainties are higher for south faces. On the basis of the results of this study, use of RCM-based scenarios is recommended for mountain permafrost impact studies, as opposed to incremental scenarios.

  20. Analysis and Comparison of 24 GHz cmWave Radio Propagation in Urban and Suburban Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rodriguez, Ignacio; Portela Lopes de Almeida, Erika; Abreu, Renato;

    2016-01-01

    as compared to the urban case. Increased spatial multipath, in average 1.23 times higher, is observed in the suburban scenario, mainly due to the strong presence of vegetation. This results in reduced suburban NLOS path loss exponents (3.4) in comparison to the urban scenario (3.7), as detailed in the outdoor...... path loss analysis. The paper also highlights the potential of using beam combining techniques in order to improve cell-edge coverage by 17% and 37% in the urban and suburban scenarios, respectively. Outdoor-to-indoor propagation was also investigated, finding an average penetration loss of 6.5 d...

  1. Developing a CBA Methodology for the Scenario-Based Land-Use Impact Assessment of Proposed Rail Investments in the Leipzig Region

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ustaoglu, Eda; Williams, Brndan; Petrov, Laura Oana

    2012-01-01

    Model applications. The land-use scenarios considered in this research are a baseline scenario of dispersed development and an alternative scenario of more compact urban developments associated with potential rapid rail provisions in the Leipzig Region. The appraisal of transport-land-use relationships...... is subject to the use of economic indicators and can be evaluated based on alternative land development scenarios developed for the Leipzig Area. In this context, key elements of a Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) approach will be developed for the evaluation of potential costs of urban rail provisions with its...

  2. GENERIC DEGRADATION SCENARIO AND CONFIGURATION ANALYSIS FOR DOE CODISPOSAL WASTE PACKAGE

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The purpose of this analysis is to develop a generic set of degradation scenarios and associated configurations for various Department of Energy (DOE) spent nuclear fuel (SNF) types when codisposed with the high-level waste (HLW) glass inside a waste package (WP). The degradation takes place inside the WP. These scenarios and configurations are developed as refinements of the standard degradation scenarios and potentially critical configuration classes given in Section 3.1 of the ''Disposal Criticality Analysis Methodology Topical Report'' (Ref. 1). Certain degradation scenarios and configurations will change when EDA II design is baselined. In accordance with AP-3.10Q, Revision 0, ICN 0, a work direction was developed, issued, and used in the preparation of this document (Ref. 13, p. 7)

  3. Strategies for cost-effective carbon reductions: A sensitivity analysis of alternative scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gumerman, Etan; Koomey, Jonathan G.; Brown, Marilyn

    2001-07-11

    Analyses of alternative futures often present results for a limited set of scenarios, with little if any sensitivity analysis to identify the factors affecting the scenario results. This approach creates an artificial impression of certainty associated with the scenarios considered, and inhibits understanding of the underlying forces. This paper summarizes the economic and carbon savings sensitivity analysis completed for the Scenarios for a Clean Energy Future study (IWG, 2000). Its 19 sensitivity cases provide insight into the costs and carbon-reduction impacts of a carbon permit trading system, demand-side efficiency programs, and supply-side policies. Impacts under different natural gas and oil price trajectories are also examined. The results provide compelling evidence that policy opportunities exist to reduce carbon emissions and save society money.

  4. SCENARIO AND TARGET SIMULATION FOR A GROUND BASED MULTIFUNCTION PHASED ARRAY RADAR

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2008-01-01

    This paper describes a scenario and target simulation which operates in non real-time to provide full closed-loop operation of the ground based multifunction phased array radar simulation system in support of ballistic missile defence experiments against countermeasure.By simulating the target scattering signature and dynamical signature,this scenario and target simulation provide re- alistic scenario source to evaluate the system performance of multifunction phased array radar,and the key algorithms verification and validation such as target tracking,multi-target imaging and target recognition.

  5. vNet Zero Energy for Radio Base Stations- Balearic Scenario

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sabater, Pere; Mihovska, Albena Dimitrova; Pol, Andreu Moia;

    2016-01-01

    based on coal and fossil fuels which is not an environmentally sustainable scenario. The aim of this study is to identify the processes that would reduce the energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions, designing a target scenario featuring "zero CO2 emissions" and "100% renewable energies" in RBS....... The energy costs, CO2 emissions and data traffic data used for the study are generated by a sample of RBS from the Balearic Islands. The results are shown in terms of energy performance for a normal and net zero emissions scenarios....

  6. Scenario analysis with the Dutch acidification systems (DAS) model: an example for forests and forest soils

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Within the framework of the Dutch Priority Programme on Acidification, the DAS model has been developed. This model aims at evaluating the effects of acidification abatement strategies on a number of receptor systems in the Netherlands and describes the entire causality chain from emissions to effects in a regionalized way. Effects of three emission/deposition scenarios on forest soils and forests are described. The emission/deposition scenarios are based on political measures as announced in the Netherlands Environmental Policy Plan for the period 1990-2000. Deposition reductions lead to a fast increase of the pH value and decrease of the Al3+ concentration and Al3+/Ca2+ ratio in the soil solution, decreasing the risk for indirect forest damage. The exceedance of a critical Al3+ concentration of 0.2 molc.m-3 and a critical molar Al3+/Ca2+ ratio of 1.0 reduces from about 75% and 65% of the considered forest area at present to about 40% and 30% in the year 2000. If deposition is kept constant after 2000, the critical Al3+ concentration and Al3+/Ca2- ratio will still be exceeded in a considerable area of forest soil in 2050. The scenario analysis for forests indicates that the nitrogen content of needles is reduced significantly. However, when the deposition is kept constant after 2000, a critical nitrogen content of 1.8% in needles is still exceeded in forests in areas with high nitrogen deposition. The final part of the paper gives a brief description of future model developments. 31 refs., 9 figs., 3 tabs

  7. Scenario analysis for the postclosure assessment of the Canadian concept for nuclear fuel waste disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    AECL Research has developed and evaluated a concept for disposal of Canada's nuclear fuel waste involving deep underground disposal of the waste in intrusive igneous rock of the Canadian Shield. The postclosure assessment of this concept focusses on the effects on human health and the environment due to potential contaminant releases into the biosphere after the disposal vault is closed. Both radiotoxic and chemically toxic contaminants are considered. One of the steps in the postclosure assessment process is scenario analysis. Scenario analysis identifies factors that could affect the performance of the disposal system and groups these factors into scenarios that require detailed quantitative evaluation. This report documents a systematic procedure for scenario analysis that was developed for the postclosure assessment and then applied to the study of a hypothetical disposal system. The application leads to a comprehensive list of factors and a set of scenarios that require further quantitative study. The application also identifies a number of other factors and potential scenarios that would not contribute significantly to environmental and safety impacts for the hypothetical disposal system. (author). 46 refs., 3 tabs., 3 figs., 2 appendices

  8. Biomass Scenario Model: BETO Analysis Platform Peer Review; NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bush, B.

    2015-03-23

    The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a unique, carefully validated, state-of-the-art fourth-generation model of the domestic bioenergy supply chain which explicitly focuses on policy issues and their potential side effects. It integrates resource availability, behavior, policy, and physical, technological, and economic constraints. The BSM uses system-dynamics simulation to model dynamic interactions across the supply chain; it tracks the deployment of biofuels given technological development and the reaction of the investment community to those technologies in the context of land availability, the competing oil market, consumer demand for biofuels, and government policies over time. It places a strong emphasis on the behavior and decision-making of various economic agents. The model treats the major infrastructure-compatible fuels. Scenario analysis based on the BSM shows that the biofuels industry tends not to rapidly thrive without significant external actions in the early years of its evolution. An initial focus for jumpstarting the industry typically has strongest results in the BSM in areas where effects of intervention have been identified to be multiplicative. In general, we find that policies which are coordinated across the whole supply chain have significant impact in fostering the growth of the biofuels industry and that the production of tens of billions of gallons of biofuels may occur under sufficiently favorable conditions.

  9. Analysis of Multipath Routing in Random Ad Hoc Networks Scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Indrani Das

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available In this study, we have proposed a multipath routing protocol for Mobile Ad Hoc Networks. Multipath routing overcomes various problems that occur in data delivery through a single path. The proposed protocol selects multiple neighbor nodes of source node to establish multiple paths towards destination. These nodes are selected based on their minimum remaining distance from destination. We have computed the length of various paths and average hops count for different node density in the network. We have considered only three paths for our evaluation. The results show that path-2 gives better results in term of hop count and path length among three paths.

  10. A comparability analysis of global burden sharing GHG reduction scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The distribution of the mitigation burden across countries is a key issue regarding the post-2012 global climate policies. This article explores the economic implications of alternative allocation rules, an assessment made in the run-up to the COP15 in Copenhagen (December 2009). We analyse the comparability of the allocations across countries based on four single indicators: GDP per capita, GHG emissions per GDP, GHG emission trends in the recent past, and population growth. The multi-sectoral computable general equilibrium model of the global economy, GEM-E3, is used for that purpose. Further, the article also compares a perfect carbon market without transaction costs with the case of a gradually developing carbon market, i.e. a carbon market with (gradually diminishing) transaction costs. - Highlights: ► Burden sharing of global mitigation efforts should consider equity and efficiency. ► The comparability of allocations across countries is based on four indicators. ► The four indicators are GDP/capita, GHG/GDP, population growth, and GHG trend. ► Any possible agreement on effort comparability needs a combination of indicators. ► We analyse the role played by the degree of flexibility in global carbon trading

  11. Evolutionary Game Analysis of Unexpected Incidents Involving Mass Participation Based Scenario Inference%基于情景推演的群体性突发事件演化博弈分析

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王循庆; 李勇建; 孙华丽

    2015-01-01

    Unexpected incidents involving mass participation have impacted China′s social harmony and public safety.Aiming at the benefit game problem of different social groups in unexpected incidents involving mass participation, we study the strategy se-lection process of two types of social groups, i.e.the social powerful group and social vulnerable group, based on evolution game theory.Then this paper establishes the evolutionary game model of unexpected incidents involving mass participation under the scenario with or without the higher levels of government′s punishment mechanism, and analyzes the behavior strategy stability of the two heterogeneous groups.Finally, this paper introduces evolutionary status of unexpected incidents involving mass participa-tion for scenario inference simulations, the results show that:Under the scenario without the higher government′s punishment mechanism,①if the costs and credit losses by taking tough poli-cies are higher than the benefits and punishment costs on the vulnerable groups who adopt the struggle strategy.Moreover the benefits of the social vulnerable groups by taking the struggle strategy are less than the costs, then the two heterogeneous groups will ultimately choose cooperative strategies;②if the benefits by taking tough policies of the social powerful group exceed the sum of the action costs, credit losses and compensation costs, meanwhile the benefits of the social vulnerable group by taking the struggle strategy exceed the sum of the costs including the action, compensation and penalty, then the two heterogeneous groups will select the tough struggle strategy;③the strategy evolutionary velocities of the two heterogeneous groups are directly related with the initial proportion of policies selections.Given the same tactics proportion, the speed of stable strategy evolutionary of the social vulnerable group is faster than that of the powerful group. Under the scenario with the higher government′s punishment

  12. Scenario Analysis of Urban Residential Land Use Utility Based on Multi-agents' Spatial Decision%基于多主体行为决策的城市居住用地利用效用情景分析

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    单玉红; 朱欣焰

    2011-01-01

    .Furthermore,urban government agents will adjust the residential land developing priority sequence based on the comprehensive consideration of the social and ecological land use utility.So by adjusting the land use and environmental protection policies of urban government agent the model sets three scenarios which respectively represent the compact,relaxed and controlled modes of urban residential space extension and gets the residential developing priority function in every scenario.By the function,the model can get the preview of the evolution of residential space in every set scenario and provide land use planning policy guidance for urban government in advance. Taking Wuchang and Hongshan districts in Wuhan as the experimental areas,the paper compares the land use structure and land use efficiency in the process of the residential space evolution from 1998 to 2008 among the three scenarios and the actual situation respectively.The comparison indicates that land new development holds a lager proportion in the evolution process of the experimental residential space from 1998 to 2008,that is to say the land redevelopment level of old urban in experimental districts is not enough.In fact the government of Wuhan city had focused on residential new development of the suburban fringe areas before 2004,but the emphasis has been transferred to the old city transformation and land redevelopment after 2004,the point verifies the validity of the model to a certain degree. Compared with the model's simulating results under different scenarios,the factual residential space evolution always has intersections with the three simulating results respectively,which means urban government may adjust its land use policy,natural environmental protection policy and so on under the influence of macroscopic environment in different periods.This is just one of the characteristics of Chinese real estate market.Excepting this,from the model simulating results,urban residents have attached increasing importance to

  13. Intermediate steps towards the 2000-Watt society in Switzerland: an energy-economic scenario analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In this dissertation by Thorsten Frank Schulz the intermediate steps necessary to realise the 2000-Watt Society in Switzerland are examined. An analysis of an energy-economic scenario shows that the 2000-Watt Society should be seen as a long-term goal. According to the author, the major changes required to allow the implementation of this project concern energy-transformation and energy-demand technologies. Electricity will, according to the author, play an important role in a service-oriented society in the future. In such a transformation even intermediate steps are associated with considerable expense. The aims of the 2000-Watt Society project are listed. Energy and CO2 balances for the domestic and transport sectors are presented and discussed. Complementary analyses are presented concerning fuel cells and wood-based fuel technologies. Finally, the implications of the 2000-Watt society and the effects of technological change are summarised and an outlook is presented

  14. Topical report on release scenario analysis of long-term management of high-level defense waste at the Hanford Site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Potential release scenarios for the defense high-level waste (HLW) on the Hanford Site are presented. Presented in this report are the three components necessary for evaluating the various alternatives under consideration for long-term management of Hanford defense HLW: identification of scenarios and events which might directly or indirectly disrupt radionuclide containment barriers; geotransport calculations of waste migration through the site media; and consequence (dose) analyses based on groundwater and air pathways calculations. The scenarios described in this report provide the necessary parameters for radionuclide transport and consequence analysis. Scenarios are categorized as either bounding or nonbounding. Bounding scenarios consider worst case or what if situations where an actual and significant release of waste material to the environment would happen if the scenario were to occur. Bounding scenarios include both near-term and long-term scenarios. Near-term scenarios are events which occur at 100 years from 1990. Long term scenarios are potential events considered to occur at 1000 and 10,000 years from 1990. Nonbounding scenarios consider events which result in insignificant releases or no release at all to the environment. Three release mechanisms are described in this report: (1) direct exposure of waste to the biosphere by a defined sequence of events (scenario) such as human intrusion by drilling; (2) radionuclides contacting an unconfined aquifer through downward percolation of groundwater or a rising water table; and (3) cataclysmic or explosive release of radionuclides by such mechanisms as meteorite impact, fire and explosion, criticality, or seismic events. Scenarios in this report present ways in which these release mechanisms could occur at a waste management facility. The scenarios are applied to the two in-tank waste management alternatives: in-situ disposal and continued present action

  15. Technology and Greenhouse Gas Emissions: An Integrated Scenario Analysis using the LBNL-NEMS model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This report describes an analysis of possible technology-based scenarios for the U.S. energy system that would result in both carbon savings and net economic benefits. We use a modified version of the Energy Information Administration's National Energy Modeling System (LBNL-NEMS) to assess the potential energy, carbon, and bill savings from a portfolio of carbon saving options. This analysis is based on technology resource potentials estimated in previous bottom-up studies, but it uses the integrated LBNL-NEMS framework to assess interactions and synergies among these options. The analysis in this paper builds on previous estimates of possible ''technology paths'' to investigate four major components of an aggressive greenhouse gas reduction strategy: (1) the large scale implementation of demand-side efficiency, comparable in scale to that presented in two recent policy studies on this topic; (2) a variety of ''alternative'' electricity supply-side options, including biomass cofiring, extension of the renewable production tax credit for wind, increased industrial cogeneration, and hydropower refurbishment. (3) the economic retirement of older and less efficient existing fossil-find power plants; and (4) a permit charge of $23 per metric ton of carbon (1996 $/t),l assuming that carbon trading is implemented in the US, and that the carbon permit charge equilibrates at this level. This level of carbon permit charge, as discussed later in the report, is in the likely range for the Clinton Administration's position on this topic

  16. Simulation of Reclaimed-Water Injection and Pumping Scenarios and Particle-Tracking Analysis near Mount Pleasant, South Carolina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petkewich, Matthew D.; Campbell, Bruce G.

    2009-01-01

    The effect of injecting reclaimed water into the Middendorf aquifer beneath Mount Pleasant, South Carolina, was simulated using a groundwater-flow model of the Coastal Plain Physiographic Province of South Carolina and parts of Georgia and North Carolina. Reclaimed water, also known as recycled water, is wastewater or stormwater that has been treated to an appropriate level so that the water can be reused. The scenarios were simulated to evaluate potential changes in groundwater flow and groundwater-level conditions caused by injecting reclaimed water into the Middendorf aquifer. Simulations included a Base Case and two injection scenarios. Maximum pumping rates were simulated as 6.65, 8.50, and 10.5 million gallons per day for the Base Case, Scenario 1, and Scenario 2, respectively. The Base Case simulation represents a non-injection estimate of the year 2050 groundwater levels for comparison purposes for the two injection scenarios. For Scenarios 1 and 2, the simulated injection of reclaimed water at 3 million gallons per day begins in 2012 and continues through 2050. The flow paths and time of travel for the injected reclaimed water were simulated using particle-tracking analysis. The simulations indicated a general decline of groundwater altitudes in the Middendorf aquifer in the Mount Pleasant, South Carolina, area between 2004 and 2050 for the Base Case and two injection scenarios. For the Base Case, groundwater altitudes generally declined about 90 feet from the 2004 groundwater levels. For Scenarios 1 and 2, although groundwater altitudes initially increased in the Mount Pleasant area because of the simulated injection, these higher groundwater levels declined as Mount Pleasant Waterworks pumping increased over time. When compared to the Base Case simulation, 2050 groundwater altitudes for Scenario 1 are between 15 feet lower to 23 feet higher for production wells, between 41 and 77 feet higher for the injection wells, and between 9 and 23 feet higher for

  17. Quantifying uncertainty in urban flooding analysis caused by the combined effect of climate and land use change scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I.-W. Jung

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available How will the combined impacts of land use change and climate change influence changes in urban flood frequency and what is the main uncertainty source of the results? We attempt to answer to these questions in two catchments with different degrees of urbanization, the Fanno catchment with 84% urban land use and the Johnson catchment with 36% urban land use, both located in the Pacific Northwest of the US. Five uncertainty sources – general circulation model (GCM structures, future greenhouse gas (GHG emission scenarios, land use change scenarios, natural variability, and hydrologic model parameters – are considered to compare the relative source of uncertainty in flood frequency projections. Two land use change scenarios conservation and development, representing possible future land use changes are used for analysis. Results show the highest increase in flood frequency under the combination of medium high GHG emission (A1B and development scenarios, and the lowest increase under the combination of low GHG emission (B1 and conservation scenarios. Although the combined impact is more significant to flood frequency change than individual scenarios, it does not linearly increase flood frequency. Changes in flood frequency are more sensitive to climate change than land use change in the two catchments for 2050s (2040–2069. Shorter term flood frequency change, 2 and 5 year floods, is highly affected by GCM structure, while longer term flood frequency change above 25 year floods is dominated by natural variability. Projected flood frequency changes more significantly in Johnson creek than Fanno creek. This result indicates that, under expected climate change conditions, an adaptive urban planning based on the conservation scenario could be more effective in less developed Johnson catchment than in the already developed Fanno catchment.

  18. Geothermal power production in future electricity markets-A scenario analysis for Germany

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Development and diffusion of new renewable energy technologies play a central role in mitigating climate change. In this context, small-scale deep geothermal power has seen growing interest in recent years as an environmentally friendly, non-intermittent energy source with large technical potential. Following the first successful demonstration projects, the German geothermal industry is currently experiencing an internationally unparalleled growth. In this study we explore the factors driving this development, and the role geothermal power production could play in the future of the German electricity market. For this, we apply the scenario technique, based on literature analysis and interviews with companies operating actively in the field. Our findings highlight the importance of political support and framework conditions in the electricity market, with the best prospects in a decentralised energy system based on renewable energy sources, where high investment costs and the risk of discovery failure are balanced by the benefits of low-carbon base load power. - Research highlights: → Small scale geothermal plants could provide base load for RES based power systems. → New technologies allow its use even in geologically inactive regions like Germany. → Key factors for growth are political support and power market framework conditions. → Main investment barriers are comparatively high investment costs and discovery risks. → Scale of use depends on technological evolution and energy system structure.

  19. Using Formative Scenario Analysis approach for landslide risk analysis in a relatively scarce data environment: preliminary results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zumpano, Veronica; Balteanu, Dan; Mazzorana, Bruno; Micu, Mihai

    2014-05-01

    It is increasingly important to provide to stakeholders tools that will enable them to better understand what is the state of the environment in which they live and manage and to help them to make decisions that aim to minimize the consequences of hydro-meteorological hazards. Very often, however, quantitative studies, especially for large areas, are difficult to perform. This is due to the fact that unfortunately isn't often possible to have the numerous data required to perform the analysis. In addition it has been proven that in scenario analysis, often deterministic approaches are not able to detect some features of the system revealing unexpected behaviors, and resulting in underestimation or omission of some impact factors. Here are presented some preliminary results obtained applying Formative Scenario Analysis that can be considered a possible solution for landslide risk analysis in cases where the data needed even if existent are not available. This method is an expert based approach that integrates intuitions and qualitative evaluations of impact factors with the quantitative analysis of relations between these factors: a group of experts with different but pertinent expertise, determine (by a rating procedure) quantitative relations between these factors, then through mathematical operations the scenarios describing a certain state of the system are obtained. The approach is applied to Buzau County (Romania), an area belonging to the Curvature Romanian Carpathians and Subcarpathians, a region strongly affected by environmental hazards. The region has been previously involved in numerous episodes of severe hydro-meteorological events that caused considerable damages (1975, 2005, 2006). In this application we are referring only to one type of landslides that can be described as shallow and medium-seated with a (mainly) translational movement that can go from slide to flow. The material involved can be either soil, debris or a mixture of both, in Romanian

  20. Analysis of China' s Primary Energy Demand Scenarios Based on the CDECGE Model%基于CDECGE模型的中国能源需求情景分析

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    毕清华; 范英; 蔡圣华; 夏炎

    2013-01-01

    从我国未来经济社会发展目标出发,根据不同的政策目标设定了3种经济发展情景:基准情景、强化低碳情景和粗放型情景.分析了3种情景下我国未来的一次能源需求量、能源消费结构及CO2排放趋势,为把握我国未来的能源安全形势、控制温室气体排放提供了有效的政策分析工具.研究方法是在Monash模型的基础上构造的我国能源经济动态可计算一般均衡模型(CDECGE).结果显示,按照现在的经济增长方式和增长率预期,如果没有额外的政策措施,2020年之前我国能源需求仍将快速增长,但在适度的低碳政策引导下,我国2020年的能源需求将控制在45.52亿t标煤,CO2排放强度将达到1.635 t/万元,相对2005年下降45%.碳税作为一种经济减排政策,会有效的降低CO2排放,减少化石能源的需求,使经济向低碳社会转型,从而实现2020年CO2排放强度降低的减排目标.因此,为减缓能源需求量的快速增长趋势,实现减排目标,可以从改善产业结构、实行碳税政策等方面采取措施,优化能源结构,实现经济结构转型,从而保障能源供应安全和控制温室气体排放.%In response to China' s future economic and social development goals, this paper explored three economic development scenarios; the baseline scenario, the enhanced, low-carbon scenario, and the extensive economic growth scenario. The paper analysed China' s primary energy demand, CO2 emissions trends, and energy consumption structure under different policies, and the model can be an effective policy tool for analysing China' s future energy security situation and controlling China' s greenhouse gas emissions. A dynamic energy computable general equilibrium ( CGE) model, which was based on the Monash model, was used to evaluate China' s energy economy (CDECGE Model) . The investigation results show that due to the current economic growth patterns and the economic growth rate, without

  1. Scenario based approach to structural damage detection and its value in a risk and reliability perspective

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hovgaard, Mads Knude; Hansen, Jannick Balleby; Brincker, Rune

    2013-01-01

    A scenario- and vibration based structural damage detection method is demonstrated though simulation. The method is Finite Element (FE) based. The value of the monitoring is calculated using structural reliability theory. A high cycle fatigue crack propagation model is assumed as the damage mecha...

  2. Mathematical modeling of a vehicle crash test based on elasto-plastic unloading scenarios of spring-mass models

    OpenAIRE

    Pawlus, Witold; Karimi, Hamid Reza; Robbersmyr, Kjell G.

    2010-01-01

    This paper investigates the usability of spring which exhibit nonlinear force-deflection characteristic in the area of mathematical modeling of vehicle crash. We present a method which allows us to obtain parameters of the spring-mass model basing on the full-scale experimental data analysis. Since vehicle collision is a dynamic event, it involves such phenomena as rebound and energy dissipation. Three different spring unloading scenarios (elastic, plastic, and elasto-plastic) are covered and...

  3. Mathematical modeling of a vehicle crash test based on elasto-plastic unloading scenarios of spring-mass models

    OpenAIRE

    Pawlus, Witold; Karimi, Hamid Reza; Robbersmyr, Kjell G.

    2011-01-01

    This paper investigates the usability of spring which exhibit nonlinear force-deflection characteristic in the area of mathematical modeling of vehicle crash. We present a method which allows us to obtain parameters of the spring-mass model basing on the full-scale experimental data analysis. Since vehicle collision is a dynamic event, it involves such phenomena as rebound and energy dissipation. Three different spring unloading scenarios (elastic, plastic, and elasto-plastic) are covered and...

  4. The centricity of presence in scenario-based high fidelity human patient simulation: a model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunnington, Renee M

    2015-01-01

    Enhancing immersive presence has been shown to have influence on learning outcomes in virtual types of simulation. Scenario-based human patient simulation, a mixed reality form, may pose unique challenges for inducing the centricity of presence among participants in simulation. A model for enhancing the centricity of presence in scenario-based human patient simulation is presented here. The model represents a theoretical linkage among the interaction of pedagogical, individual, and group factors that influence the centricity of presence among participants in simulation. Presence may have an important influence on the learning experiences and learning outcomes in scenario-based high fidelity human patient simulation. This report is a follow-up to an article published in 2014 by the author where connections were made to the theoretical basis of presence as articulated by nurse scholars. PMID:25520467

  5. Real-time determination of the worst tsunami scenario based on Earthquake Early Warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Furuya, Takashi; Koshimura, Shunichi; Hino, Ryota; Ohta, Yusaku; Inoue, Takuya

    2016-04-01

    In recent years, real-time tsunami inundation forecasting has been developed with the advances of dense seismic monitoring, GPS Earth observation, offshore tsunami observation networks, and high-performance computing infrastructure (Koshimura et al., 2014). Several uncertainties are involved in tsunami inundation modeling and it is believed that tsunami generation model is one of the great uncertain sources. Uncertain tsunami source model has risk to underestimate tsunami height, extent of inundation zone, and damage. Tsunami source inversion using observed seismic, geodetic and tsunami data is the most effective to avoid underestimation of tsunami, but needs to expect more time to acquire the observed data and this limitation makes difficult to terminate real-time tsunami inundation forecasting within sufficient time. Not waiting for the precise tsunami observation information, but from disaster management point of view, we aim to determine the worst tsunami source scenario, for the use of real-time tsunami inundation forecasting and mapping, using the seismic information of Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) that can be obtained immediately after the event triggered. After an earthquake occurs, JMA's EEW estimates magnitude and hypocenter. With the constraints of earthquake magnitude, hypocenter and scaling law, we determine possible multi tsunami source scenarios and start searching the worst one by the superposition of pre-computed tsunami Green's functions, i.e. time series of tsunami height at offshore points corresponding to 2-dimensional Gaussian unit source, e.g. Tsushima et al., 2014. Scenario analysis of our method consists of following 2 steps. (1) Searching the worst scenario range by calculating 90 scenarios with various strike and fault-position. From maximum tsunami height of 90 scenarios, we determine a narrower strike range which causes high tsunami height in the area of concern. (2) Calculating 900 scenarios that have different strike, dip, length

  6. SAFRR AND Physics-Based Scenarios: The Power of Scientifically Credible Stories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cox, D. A.; Jones, L.

    2015-12-01

    USGS's SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Project and its predecessor, the Multi Hazards Demonstration Project, uses the latest earth science to develop scenarios so that communities can improve disaster resilience. SAFRR has created detailed physics-based natural-disaster scenarios of a M7.8 San Andreas earthquake in southern California (ShakeOut), atmospheric-river storms rivaling the Great California Flood of 1862 (ARkStorm), a Tohoku-sized earthquake and tsunami in the eastern Aleutians (SAFRR Tsunami), and now a M7.05 quake on the Hayward Fault in the San Francisco Bay area (HayWired), as novel ways of providing science for decision making. Each scenario is scientifically plausible, deterministic, and large enough to demand attention but not too large to be believable. The scenarios address interacting hazards, requiring involvement of multiple science disciplines and user communities. The scenarios routinely expose hitherto unknown or ignored vulnerabilities, most often in cascading effects missed when impacts are considered in isolation. They take advantage of story telling to provide decision makers with clear explanations and justifications for mitigation and preparedness actions, and have been used for national-to-local disaster response exercises and planning. Effectiveness is further leveraged by downscaling the scenarios to local levels. For example, although the ARkStorm scenario describes state-scale events and has been used that way by NASA and the Navy, SAFRR also partnered with FEMA to focus on two local areas, Ventura County in the coastal plain and the mountain setting of Lake Tahoe with downstream impacts in Reno, Sparks and Carson City. Downscaling and focused analyses increased usefulness to user communities, drawing new participants into the study. SAFRR scenarios have also motivated new research to answer questions uncovered by stakeholders, closing the circle of co-evolving disaster-science and disaster-response improvements.

  7. A multivariate copula-based framework for dealing with hazard scenarios and failure probabilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salvadori, G.; Durante, F.; De Michele, C.; Bernardi, M.; Petrella, L.

    2016-05-01

    This paper is of methodological nature, and deals with the foundations of Risk Assessment. Several international guidelines have recently recommended to select appropriate/relevant Hazard Scenarios in order to tame the consequences of (extreme) natural phenomena. In particular, the scenarios should be multivariate, i.e., they should take into account the fact that several variables, generally not independent, may be of interest. In this work, it is shown how a Hazard Scenario can be identified in terms of (i) a specific geometry and (ii) a suitable probability level. Several scenarios, as well as a Structural approach, are presented, and due comparisons are carried out. In addition, it is shown how the Hazard Scenario approach illustrated here is well suited to cope with the notion of Failure Probability, a tool traditionally used for design and risk assessment in engineering practice. All the results outlined throughout the work are based on the Copula Theory, which turns out to be a fundamental theoretical apparatus for doing multivariate risk assessment: formulas for the calculation of the probability of Hazard Scenarios in the general multidimensional case (d≥2) are derived, and worthy analytical relationships among the probabilities of occurrence of Hazard Scenarios are presented. In addition, the Extreme Value and Archimedean special cases are dealt with, relationships between dependence ordering and scenario levels are studied, and a counter-example concerning Tail Dependence is shown. Suitable indications for the practical application of the techniques outlined in the work are given, and two case studies illustrate the procedures discussed in the paper.

  8. 基于CGE模型的2020年中国碳排放强度目标分析%Analysis of the Scenarios of China' s Carbon Intensity Reduction in 2020 Based on the CGE Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    刘小敏; 付加锋

    2011-01-01

    In the 21st century, mankind will face a big challenge, i.e., global climate change. Many countries have achieved agreement on this issue. In November in 2009, China announced a new carbon intensity reduction target in 2020 year to manifest the commitment of the Chinese government to dealing with climate change. The study was to unravel the key issues associated with whether China can meet the challenge and how to achieve the goal. First, we formulated a variety of scenarios to accomplish the goal of 2020' s carbon intensity based on the experience of achieving the national energy intensity targets in the Eleventh Five National plan during the last five years. Combined with the country' s other development strategies, such as the future energy structure, the ratio of various energy goals, and considering the existing major emission reduction planning for the next decade, we used the computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to develop and analyze the scenarios. To construct the SAM which is the data base of the CGE model, we replaced the value by physical data in energy sectors. This treatment could make it more realistic and manageable in energy consumption calculations. An energy CGE model with five specific energy sectors was built subsequently. Some parameters of the scenarios were summarized from the existing studies and others were specified on the assumption that policies of energy saving and emissions reduction in the Eleventh Five-Year nation' s plan will remain almost invariant in the next decade. We estimated the difficulty of achieving the carbon intensity targets in 2020 by comparing the national targets of the last five years with the targets of the year 2020, figuring out possible paths to achieve the goal of year 2020. Results show that: 1) Industrial restructuring showed limited contribution to energy saving over the last five years, and the largest part of energy saving came from decreases in energy intensity of major industrial sectors. Sectors

  9. Dynamic scenario quantification based on continuous Markov Monte Carlo method with meta-model of thermal hydraulics for level 2 PSA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    We have established a dynamic scenario quantification method based on the coupling of a Continuous Markov Monte Carlo (CMMC) method and a plant thermal-hydraulics analysis code for level 2 PSA (probabilistic safety assessment). This paper presents meta-analysis coupling model to obtain the dynamic scenario quantification with a reasonable computational cost. The PLOHS (protected-loss-of-heat-sink) accident of a liquid sodium fast reactor is selected as the level 2 PSA scenario in the model. Furthermore, we also discuss categorizing methods of the quantification result because the coupling method differs widely from existing event tree method. (author)

  10. Hawaii Clean Energy Initiative (HCEI) Scenario Analysis: Quantitative Estimates Used to Facilitate Working Group Discussions (2008-2010)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Braccio, R.; Finch, P.; Frazier, R.

    2012-03-01

    This report provides details on the Hawaii Clean Energy Initiative (HCEI) Scenario Analysis to identify potential policy options and evaluate their impact on reaching the 70% HECI goal, present possible pathways to attain the goal based on currently available technology, with an eye to initiatives under way in Hawaii, and provide an 'order-of-magnitude' cost estimate and a jump-start to action that would be adjusted with a better understanding of the technologies and market.

  11. Projection in Future Drought Hazard of South Korea Based on RCP Climate Change Scenario 8.5 Using SPEI

    OpenAIRE

    Byung Sik Kim; In Gi Chang; Jang Hyun Sung; Hae Jin Han

    2016-01-01

    The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) analysis was conducted using monthly precipitation data and temperature data on a 12.5 km × 12.5 km resolution based on a Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 climate change scenario, and the characteristics of drought were identified by the threshold. In addition, the changes in drought severity and intensity were projected using the threshold based on the run-length concept and frequency analysis. As a result of the a...

  12. Sensitivity/uncertainty analysis of a borehole scenario comparing Latin Hypercube Sampling and deterministic sensitivity approaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A computer code was used to study steady-state flow for a hypothetical borehole scenario. The model consists of three coupled equations with only eight parameters and three dependent variables. This study focused on steady-state flow as the performance measure of interest. Two different approaches to sensitivity/uncertainty analysis were used on this code. One approach, based on Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS), is a statistical sampling method, whereas, the second approach is based on the deterministic evaluation of sensitivities. The LHS technique is easy to apply and should work well for codes with a moderate number of parameters. Of deterministic techniques, the direct method is preferred when there are many performance measures of interest and a moderate number of parameters. The adjoint method is recommended when there are a limited number of performance measures and an unlimited number of parameters. This unlimited number of parameters capability can be extremely useful for finite element or finite difference codes with a large number of grid blocks. The Office of Nuclear Waste Isolation will use the technique most appropriate for an individual situation. For example, the adjoint method may be used to reduce the scope to a size that can be readily handled by a technique such as LHS. Other techniques for sensitivity/uncertainty analysis, e.g., kriging followed by conditional simulation, will be used also. 15 references, 4 figures, 9 tables

  13. Scenario analysis to vehicular emission reduction in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Xiurui; Fu, Liwei; Ji, Muse; Lang, Jianlei; Chen, Dongsheng; Cheng, Shuiyuan

    2016-09-01

    Motor vehicle emissions are increasingly becoming one of the important factors affecting the urban air quality in China. It is necessary and useful to policy makers to demonstrate the situation given the relevant pollutants reduction measures are taken. This paper predicted the reduction potentials of conventional pollutants (PM10, NOx, CO, HC) under different control strategies and policies in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region during 2011-2020. There are the baseline and 5 control scenarios designed, which presented the different current and future possible vehicular emissions control measures. Future population of different kinds of vehicles were predicted based on the Gompertz model, and vehicle kilometers travelled estimated as well. After that, the emissions reduction under the different scenarios during 2011-2020 could be estimated using emission factors and activity level data. The results showed that, the vehicle population in the BTH region would continue to grow up, especially in Tianjin and Hebei. Comparing the different scenarios, emission standards updating scenario would achieve a substantial reduction and keep rising up for all the pollutants, and the scenario of eliminating high-emission vehicles can reduce emissions more effectively in short-term than in long-term, especially in Beijing. Due to the constraints of existing economical and technical level, the reduction effect of promoting new energy vehicles would not be significant, especially given the consideration of their lifetime impact. The reduction effect of population regulation scenario in Beijing cannot be ignorable and would keep going up for PM10, CO and HC, excluding NOx. Under the integrated scenario considering all the control measures it would achieve the maximum reduction potential of emissions, which means to reduce emissions of PM10, NOx, CO, HC, by 56%, 59%, 48%, 52%, respectively, compared to BAU scenario for the whole BTH region in 2020. PMID:27325548

  14. Comparison of HRA methods based on WWER-1000 NPP real and simulated accident scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Full text: Adequate treatment of human interactions in probabilistic safety analysis (PSA) studies is a key to the understanding of accident sequences and their relative importance in overall risk. Human interactions with machines have long been recognized as important contributors to the safe operation of nuclear power plants (NPP). Human interactions affect the ordering of dominant accident sequences and hence have a significant effect on the risk of NPP. By virtue of the ability to combine the treatment of both human and hardware reliability in real accidents, NPP fullscope, multifunctional and computer-based simulators provide a unique way of developing an understanding of the importance of specific human actions for overall plant safety. Context dependent human reliability assessment (HRA) models, such as the holistic decision tree (HDT) and performance evaluation of teamwork (PET) methods, are the so-called second generation HRA techniques. The HDT model has been used for a number of PSA studies. The PET method reflects promising prospects for dealing with dynamic aspects of human performance. The paper presents a comparison of the two HRA techniques for calculation of post-accident human error probability in the PSA. The real and simulated event training scenario 'turbine's stop after loss of feedwater' based on standard PSA model assumptions is designed for WWER-1000 computer simulator and their detailed boundary conditions are described and analyzed. The error probability of post-accident individual actions will be calculated by means of each investigated technique based on student's computer simulator training archives

  15. Scenario based outdoor simulation in pre-hospital trauma care using a simple mannequin model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grier Gareth

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Introduction We describe a system of scenario-based training using simple mannequins under realistic circumstances for the training of pre-hospital care providers. Methods A simple intubatable mannequin or student volunteers are used together with a training version of the equipment used on a routine basis by the pre-hospital care team (doctor + paramedic. Training is conducted outdoors at the base location all year round. The scenarios are led by scenario facilitators who are predominantly senior physicians. Their role is to brief the training team and guide the scenario, results of patient assessment and the simulated responses to interventions and treatment. Pilots, fire-fighters and medical students are utilised in scenarios to enhance realism by taking up roles as bystanders, additional ambulance staff and police. These scenario participants are briefed and introduced to the scene in a realistic manner. After completion of the scenario, the training team would usually be invited to prepare and deliver a hospital handover as they would in a real mission. A formal structured debrief then takes place. Results This training method technique has been used for the training of all London Helicopter Emergency Medical Service (London HEMS doctors and paramedics over the last 24 months. Informal participant feedback suggests that this is a very useful teaching method, both for improving motor skills, critical decision-making, scene management and team interaction. Although formal assessment of this technique has not yet taken place we describe how this type of training is conducted in a busy operational pre-hospital trauma service. Discussion The teaching and maintenance of pre-hospital care skills is essential to an effective pre-hospital trauma care system. Simple mannequin based scenario training is feasible on a day-to-day basis and has the advantages of low cost, rapid set up and turn around. The scope of scenarios is limited only by

  16. Expanded Capabilities for the Hydrogen Financial Analysis Scenario Tool (H2FAST)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bush, Brian; Melaina, Marc; Penev, Michael

    2016-06-08

    This presentation describes how NREL expanded the capabilities for the Hydrogen Financial Analysis Scenario Tool (H2FAST) in FY16. It was presented at the U.S. Department of Energy Hydrogen and Fuel Cells Program 2016 Annual Merit Review and Peer Evaluation Meeting on June 8, 2016, in Washington, D.C.

  17. Scenario analysis to account for photovoltaic generation uncertainty in distribution grid reconfiguration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chittur Ramaswamy, Parvathy; Deconinck, Geert; Pillai, Jayakrishnan Radhakrishna

    2013-01-01

    This paper considers hourly reconfiguration of a low voltage distribution network with the objectives of minimizing power loss and voltage deviation. The uncertainty in photovoltaic (PV) generation which in turn will affect the optimum configuration is tackled with the help of scenario analysis. ......-dominated solutions, demonstrating their trade-offs. Finally, the best compromise solution can be selected depending on the decision maker's requirement....

  18. Enhanced adaptive management: integrating decision analysis, scenario analysis and environmental modeling for the Everglades.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Convertino, Matteo; Foran, Christy M; Keisler, Jeffrey M; Scarlett, Lynn; LoSchiavo, Andy; Kiker, Gregory A; Linkov, Igor

    2013-01-01

    We propose to enhance existing adaptive management efforts with a decision-analytical approach that can guide the initial selection of robust restoration alternative plans and inform the need to adjust these alternatives in the course of action based on continuously acquired monitoring information and changing stakeholder values. We demonstrate an application of enhanced adaptive management for a wetland restoration case study inspired by the Florida Everglades restoration effort. We find that alternatives designed to reconstruct the pre-drainage flow may have a positive ecological impact, but may also have high operational costs and only marginally contribute to meeting other objectives such as reduction of flooding. Enhanced adaptive management allows managers to guide investment in ecosystem modeling and monitoring efforts through scenario and value of information analyses to support optimal restoration strategies in the face of uncertain and changing information. PMID:24113217

  19. Scenario Analysis of Tillage, Residue and Fertilization Management Effects on Soil Organic Carbon Dynamics

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Xiao-Bin; CAI Dian-Xiong; W.B.HOOGMOED; O.OENEMA; U.D.PERDOK

    2005-01-01

    Based on data from 10-year field experiments on residue/fertilizer management in the dryland farming region of northern China, Century model was used to simulate the site-specific ecosystem dynamics through adjustment of the model's parameters, and the applicability of the model to propose soil organic carbon (SOC) management temporally and spatially, in cases such as of tillage/residue/fertilization management options, was identified via scenario analysis.Results between simulations and actual measurements were in close agreement when appropriate applications of stover,manure and inorganic fertilizer were combined. Simulations of extreme C/N ratios with added organic materials tended to underestimate the measured effects. Scenarios of changed tillage methods, residue practices and fertilization options showed potential to maintain and enhance SOC in the long run, while increasing inorganic N slowed down the SOC turnover rate but did not create a net C sink without any organic C input. The Century model simulation showed a good relationship between annual C inputs to the soil and the rate of C sequestration in the top 20 cm layer and provided quantitative estimations of changes in parameters crucial for sustainable land use and management. Conservation tillage practices for sustainable land use should be integrated with residue management and appreciable organic and inorganic fertilizer application, adapted according to the local residue resource, soil fertility and production conditions. At least 50%residue return into the soil was needed annually for maintenance of SOC balance, and manure amendment was important for enhancement of SOC in small crop-livestock systems in which crop residue land application was limited.

  20. Pre-Service Teachers' Perspectives on Using Scenario-Based Virtual Worlds in Science Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kennedy-Clark, Shannon

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents the findings of a study on the current knowledge and attitudes of pre-service teachers on the use of scenario-based multi-user virtual environments in science education. The 28 participants involved in the study were introduced to "Virtual Singapura," a multi-user virtual environment, and completed an open-ended questionnaire.…

  1. Assessing the Psychometric Properties of a Scenario-Based Measure of Achievement Guilt and Shame

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Ted; Sharp, Jessica; Alexander, James

    2008-01-01

    In this study, the psychometric properties of the scenario-based Achievement Guilt and Shame Scale (AGSS) were established. The AGSS and scales assessing interpersonal guilt and shame, high standards, overgeneralization, self-criticism, self-esteem, academic self-concept, fear of failure, and tendency to respond in a socially desirable manner were…

  2. THE SCENARIOS APPROACH TO ATTENUATION-BASED REMEDIES FOR INORGANIC AND RADIONUCLIDE CONTAMINANTS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vangelas, K.; Rysz, M.; Truex, M.; Brady, P.; Newell, C.; Denham, M.

    2011-08-04

    Guidance materials based on use of conceptual model scenarios were developed to assist evaluation and implementation of attenuation-based remedies for groundwater and vadose zones contaminated with inorganic and radionuclide contaminants. The Scenarios approach is intended to complement the comprehensive information provided in the US EPA's Technical Protocol for Monitored Natural Attenuation (MNA) of Inorganic Contaminants by providing additional information on site conceptual models and extending the evaluation to consideration of Enhanced Attenuation approaches. The conceptual models incorporate the notion of reactive facies, defined as units with hydrogeochemical properties that are different from surrounding units and that react with contaminants in distinct ways. The conceptual models also incorporate consideration of biogeochemical gradients, defined as boundaries between different geochemical conditions that have been induced by waste disposal or other natural phenomena. Gradients can change over time when geochemical conditions from one area migrate into another, potentially affecting contaminant mobility. A recognition of gradients allows the attenuation-affecting conditions of a site to be projected into the future. The Scenarios approach provides a stepwise process to identify an appropriate category of conceptual model and refine it for a specific site. Scenario materials provide links to pertinent sections in the EPA technical protocol and present information about contaminant mobility and important controlling mechanism for attenuation-based remedies based on the categories of conceptual models.

  3. An Ontology-Based Scenario for Teaching the Management of Health Information Systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jahn, Franziska; Schaaf, Michael; Kahmann, Christian; Tahar, Kais; Kücherer, Christian; Paech, Barbara; Winter, Alfred

    2016-01-01

    The terminology for the management of health information systems is characterized by complexity and polysemy which is both challenging for medical informatics students and practitioners. SNIK, an ontology of information management (IMI) in hospitals, brings together IM concepts from different literature sources. Based on SNIK, we developed a blended learning scenario to teach medical informatics students IM concepts and their relationships. In proof-of-concept teaching units, students found the use of SNIK in teaching and learning motivating and useful. In the next step, the blended learning scenario will be rolled out to an international course for medical informatics students. PMID:27577404

  4. A Scenario-Based Protocol Checker for Public-Key Authentication Scheme

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saito, Takamichi

    Security protocol provides communication security for the internet. One of the important features of it is authentication with key exchange. Its correctness is a requirement of the whole of the communication security. In this paper, we introduce three attack models realized as their attack scenarios, and provide an authentication-protocol checker for applying three attack-scenarios based on the models. We also utilize it to check two popular security protocols: Secure SHell (SSH) and Secure Socket Layer/Transport Layer Security (SSL/TLS).

  5. HYDROLOGIC MODEL UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH SIMULATING FUTURE LAND-COVER/USE SCENARIOS: A RETROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS

    Science.gov (United States)

    GIS-based hydrologic modeling offers a convenient means of assessing the impacts associated with land-cover/use change for environmental planning efforts. Alternative future scenarios can be used as input to hydrologic models and compared with existing conditions to evaluate pot...

  6. A structured process to develop scenarios for use in evaluation of an evidence-based approach in clinical decision making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manns PJ

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Patricia J Manns, Johanna DarrahDepartment of Physical Therapy, Faculty of Rehabilitation Medicine, University of Alberta, Edmonton, CanadaBackground and purpose: Scenarios are used as the basis from which to evaluate the use of the components of evidence-based practice in decision making, yet there are few examples of a standardized process of scenario writing. The aim of this paper is to describe a step-by-step scenario writing method used in the context of the authors’ curriculum research study.Methods: Scenario writing teams included one physical therapy clinician and one academic staff member. There were four steps in the scenario development process: (1 identify prevalent condition and brainstorm interventions; (2 literature search; (3 develop scenario framework; and (4 write scenario.Results: Scenarios focused only on interventions, not diagnostic or prognostic problems. The process led to two types of scenarios – ones that provided an intervention with strong research evidence and others where the intervention had weak evidence to support its use. The end product of the process was a scenario that incorporates aspects of evidence-based decision making and can be used as the basis for evaluation.Conclusion: The use of scenarios has been very helpful to capture therapists’ reasoning processes. The scenario development process was applied in an education context as part of a final evaluation of graduating clinical physical therapy students.Keywords: physical therapists, clinical decision making, evaluation, curriculum

  7. Scenarios of Future Water use on Mediterranean Islands based on an Integrated Assessment of Water Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lange, M. A.

    2006-12-01

    The availability of water in sufficient quantities and adequate quality presents considerable problems on Mediterranean islands. Because of their isolation and thus the impossibility to draw on more distant or more divers aquifers, they rely entirely on precipitation as natural replenishing mechanism. Recent observations indicate decreasing precipitation, increasing evaporation and steadily growing demand for water on the islands. Future climate change will exacerbate this problem, thus increasing the already pertinent vulnerability to droughts. Responsible planning of water management strategies requires scenarios of future supply and demand through an integrated assessment including climate scenarios based on regional climate modeling as well as scenarios on changes in societal and economical determinants of water demand. Constructing such strategies necessitates a thorough understanding about the interdependencies and feedbacks between physical/hydrological and socio-economic determinants of water balances on an island. This has to be based on a solid understanding of past and present developments of these drivers. In the framework of the EU-funded MEDIS project (Towards sustainable water use on Mediterranean Islands: addressing conflicting demands and varying hydrological, social and economic conditions, EVK1-CT-2001-00092), detailed investigations on present vulnerabilities and adaptation strategies to droughts have been carried out on Mallorca, Corsica, Sicily, Crete and Cyprus. This was based on an interdisciplinary study design including hydrological, geophysical, agricultural-, social and political sciences investigations. A central element of the study has been the close interaction with stakeholders on the islands and their contribution to strategy formulation. An important result has been a specification of vulnerability components including: a physical/environmental-, an economical/regulatory- and a social/institutional/political component. Their

  8. A method for scenario-based risk assessment for robust aerospace systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Victoria Katherine

    involved in completing the modeling and simulation are: Alternative Solution Modeling, Uncertainty Quantification, Risk Assessment, and Risk Mitigation. Focus area three consists of Decision Support. In this area a decision support interface is created that allows for game playing between solution alternatives and risk mitigation. A multi-attribute decision making process is also implemented to aid in decision making. A demonstration problem inspired by Airbus' mid 1980s decision to break into the widebody long-range market was developed to illustrate the use of this method. The results showed that the method is able to capture additional types of risk than previous analysis methods, particularly at the early stages of aircraft design. It was also shown that the method can be used to help create a system that is robust to external environmental factors. The addition of an external environment risk analysis in the early stages of conceptual design can add another dimension to the analysis of feasibility and viability. The ability to take risk into account during the early stages of the design process can allow for the elimination of potentially feasible and viable but too-risky alternatives. The addition of a scenario-based analysis instead of a traditional probabilistic analysis enabled uncertainty to be effectively bound and examined over a variety of potential futures instead of only a single future. There is also potential for a product to be groomed for a specific future that one believes is likely to happen, or for a product to be steered during design as the future unfolds.

  9. Technology penetration and capital stock turnover. Lessons from IEA scenario analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Philibert, C. [International Energy Agency IEA, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development OECD, Paris (France)

    2007-05-15

    The aim of this paper is to reflect on the significant differences between the emissions reductions projections in mid-term and long-term scenarios, and to explore their policy implications. It draws mainly on two recent IEA publications: the 2006 World Energy Outlook (WEO), which contains energy and energy-related CO2 projections up to 2030, and the 2006-published Energy Technology Perspectives (ETP), which considers scenarios and strategies up to 2050. The analysis focuses on a comparison of the Alternative Policy Scenario of the 2006 WEO, and the various Accelerated Technology (ACT) Scenarios in the ETP. The next section provides the necessary background on these two publications and their energy-related CO2 emissions by 2030 and 2050, respectively. The third section investigates in some more depth the reasons for the large differences in the amount of emission reductions at these dates. Capital stock turnover and technology maturation lead times, in particular, are identified as primary reasons for the differences. The fourth section suggests several possible policy conclusions that can be drawn from this analysis. They include thought pieces with respect to the action required in the short-term; to the necessity of long-term signals; to the advantages and limitations of short-term targets; and to the opportunities and challenges the international community faces with respect to emission reductions in developing countries.

  10. Photodegradation of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in soils under a climate change base scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marquès, Montse; Mari, Montse; Audí-Miró, Carme; Sierra, Jordi; Soler, Albert; Nadal, Martí; Domingo, José L

    2016-04-01

    The photodegradation of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in two typical Mediterranean soils, either coarse- or fine-textured, was here investigated. Soil samples, spiked with the 16 US EPA priority PAHs, were incubated in a climate chamber at stable conditions of temperature (20 °C) and light (9.6 W m(-2)) for 28 days, simulating a climate change base scenario. PAH concentrations in soils were analyzed throughout the experiment, and correlated with data obtained by means of Microtox(®) ecotoxicity test. Photodegradation was found to be dependent on exposure time, molecular weight of each hydrocarbon, and soil texture. Fine-textured soil was able to enhance sorption, being PAHs more photodegraded than in coarse-textured soil. According to the EC50 values reported by Microtox(®), a higher detoxification was observed in fine-textured soil, being correlated with the outcomes of the analytical study. Significant photodegradation rates were detected for a number of PAHs, namely phenanthrene, anthracene, benzo(a)pyrene, and indeno(123-cd)pyrene. Benzo(a)pyrene, commonly used as an indicator for PAH pollution, was completely removed after 7 days of light exposure. In addition to the PAH chemical analysis and the ecotoxicity tests, a hydrogen isotope analysis of benzo(a)pyrene was also carried out. The degradation of this specific compound was associated to a high enrichment in (2)H, obtaining a maximum δ(2)H isotopic shift of +232‰. This strong isotopic effect observed in benzo(a)pyrene suggests that compound-specific isotope analysis (CSIA) may be a powerful tool to monitor in situ degradation of PAHs. Moreover, hydrogen isotopes of benzo(a)pyrene evidenced a degradation process of unknown origin occurring in the darkness.

  11. Photodegradation of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in soils under a climate change base scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marquès, Montse; Mari, Montse; Audí-Miró, Carme; Sierra, Jordi; Soler, Albert; Nadal, Martí; Domingo, José L

    2016-04-01

    The photodegradation of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in two typical Mediterranean soils, either coarse- or fine-textured, was here investigated. Soil samples, spiked with the 16 US EPA priority PAHs, were incubated in a climate chamber at stable conditions of temperature (20 °C) and light (9.6 W m(-2)) for 28 days, simulating a climate change base scenario. PAH concentrations in soils were analyzed throughout the experiment, and correlated with data obtained by means of Microtox(®) ecotoxicity test. Photodegradation was found to be dependent on exposure time, molecular weight of each hydrocarbon, and soil texture. Fine-textured soil was able to enhance sorption, being PAHs more photodegraded than in coarse-textured soil. According to the EC50 values reported by Microtox(®), a higher detoxification was observed in fine-textured soil, being correlated with the outcomes of the analytical study. Significant photodegradation rates were detected for a number of PAHs, namely phenanthrene, anthracene, benzo(a)pyrene, and indeno(123-cd)pyrene. Benzo(a)pyrene, commonly used as an indicator for PAH pollution, was completely removed after 7 days of light exposure. In addition to the PAH chemical analysis and the ecotoxicity tests, a hydrogen isotope analysis of benzo(a)pyrene was also carried out. The degradation of this specific compound was associated to a high enrichment in (2)H, obtaining a maximum δ(2)H isotopic shift of +232‰. This strong isotopic effect observed in benzo(a)pyrene suggests that compound-specific isotope analysis (CSIA) may be a powerful tool to monitor in situ degradation of PAHs. Moreover, hydrogen isotopes of benzo(a)pyrene evidenced a degradation process of unknown origin occurring in the darkness. PMID:26841292

  12. A scenario-based clean gasoline production strategy for China National Petroleum Corporation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Liu Haiyan; Yu Jianning; Fan Yu; Shi Gang; Bao Xiaojun

    2008-01-01

    Facing increasingly strict environmental regulations on transportation fuels,China National Petroleum Corp.(CNPC),the second largest supplier of petroleum products in China,needs to upgrade its transportation fuels.Using the scenario-based analysis method,this paper analyzes how the emission related properties,including antiknock index,and sulfur,olefin,benzene and aromatics contents of gasoline produced by CNPC,vary with the change in the configuration of gasoline production units in the future 5-15 years.The results showed that for CNPC to upgrade its gasoline,the share of fluid catalytic cracking(FCC)naphtha must be reduced,but just increasing reformate or alkylate and isomerate will result in excessive increase in benzene and aromatics contents or a great loss of gasoline octane number.Therefore,CNPC should suitably control the capacity of its FCC units and increase the capacity of reformer,alkylation and isomerization units.Most importantly,CNPC should dramatically expand the capacity of its hydrotreating or non-hydrotreating gasoline upgrading units to decrease the olefin and sulfur contents in FCC gasoline that takes a dominant share of about 80% in the gasoline pool of China.

  13. Scenarios which may lead to the rise of an asteroid-based technical civilisation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kecskes, Csaba

    2002-05-01

    In a previous paper, the author described a hypothetical development path of technical civilisations which has the following stages: planet dwellers, asteroid dwellers, interstellar travellers, interstellar space dwellers. In this paper, several scenarios are described which may cause the rise of an asteroid-based technical civilisation. Before such a transition may take place, certain space technologies must be developed fully (now these exist only in very preliminary forms): closed-cycle biological life support systems, space manufacturing systems, electrical propulsion systems. After mastering these technologies, certain events may provide the necessary financial means and social impetus for the foundation of the first asteroid-based colonies. In the first scenario, a rich minority group becomes persecuted and they decide to leave the Earth. In the second scenario, a "cold war"-like situation exists and the leaders of the superpowers order the creation of asteroid-based colonies to show off their empires' technological (and financial) grandiosity. In the third scenario, the basic situation is similar to the second one, but in this case the asteroids are not just occupied by the colonists. With several decades of hard work, an asteroid can be turned into a kinetic energy weapon which can provide the same (or greater) threat as the nuclear arsenal of a present superpower. In the fourth scenario, some military asteroids are moved to Earth-centred orbits and utilised as "solar power satellites" (SPS). This would be a quite economical solution because a "military asteroid" already contains most of the important components of an SPS (large solar collector arrays, power distribution devices, orbit modifying rocket engine), one should add only a large microwave transmitter.

  14. Modeling urban expansion policy scenarios using an agent-based approach for Guangzhou Metropolitan Region of China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guangjin Tian

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Policy makers and the human decision processes of urban planning have an impact on urban expansion. The behaviors and decision modes of regional authority, real estate developer, resident, and farmer agents and their interactions can be simulated by the analytical hierarchy process (AHP method. The driving factors are regressed with urban dynamics instead of static land-use types. Agents’ behaviors and decision modes have an impact on the urban dynamic pattern by adjusting parameter weights. We integrate an agent-based model (ABM with AHP to investigate a complex decision-making process and future urban dynamic processes. Three policy scenarios for baseline development, rapid development, and green land protection have been applied to predict the future development patterns of the Guangzhou metropolitan region. A future policy scenario analysis can help policy makers to understand the possible results. These individuals can adjust their policies and decisions according to their different objectives.

  15. Scenario-based verification of real-time systems using UPPAAL

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Li, Shuhao; Belaguer, Sandie; David, Alexandre;

    2010-01-01

    as a separate monitored LSC chart. We make timed extensions to a kernel subset of the LSC language and define a trace-based semantics. By translating a monitored LSC chart to a behavior-equivalent observer TA and then non-intrusively composing this observer with the original TA modeled real-time system......, the problem of scenario-based verification reduces to a computation tree logic (CTL) real-time model checking problem. In case the real time system is modeled as a set of driving LSC charts, we translate these driving charts and the monitored chart into a behavior-equivalent network of TAs by using a “one......Abstract This paper proposes two approaches to tool-supported automatic verification of dense real-time systems against scenario-based requirements, where a system is modeled as a network of timed automata (TAs) or as a set of driving live sequence charts (LSCs), and a requirement is specified...

  16. Lunar Outpost Life Support Architecture Study Based on a High Mobility Exploration Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lange, Kevin E.; Anderson, Molly S.

    2009-01-01

    As scenarios for lunar surface exploration and habitation continue to evolve within NASA s Constellation program, so must studies of optimal life support system architectures and technologies. This paper presents results of a life support architecture study based on a 2009 NASA scenario known as Scenario 12. Scenario 12 represents a consolidation of ideas from earlier NASA scenarios and includes an outpost near the Lunar South Pole comprised of three larger fixed surface elements and four attached pressurized rovers. The scenario places a high emphasis on surface mobility, with planning assuming that all four crewmembers spend roughly 50% of the time away from the outpost on 3-14 day excursions in two of the pressurized rovers. Some of the larger elements can also be mobilized for longer duration excursions. This emphasis on mobility poses a significant challenge for a regenerative life support system in terms of cost-effective waste collection and resource recovery across multiple elements, including rovers with very constrained infrastructure resources. The current study considers pressurized rovers as part of a distributed outpost life support architecture in both stand-alone and integrated configurations. A range of architectures are examined reflecting different levels of closure and distributed functionality. Different lander propellant scavenging options are also considered involving either initial conversion of residual oxygen and hydrogen propellants to water or initial direct oxygen scavenging. Monte Carlo simulations are used to assess the sensitivity of results to volatile high-impact mission variables, including the quantity of residual lander propellants available for scavenging, the fraction of crew time away from the outpost on excursions, total extravehicular activity hours, and habitat leakage. Architectures are evaluated by estimating surpluses or deficits of water and oxygen per 180-day mission and differences in fixed and 10-year

  17. Analysis of Concentrating Solar Power with Thermal Energy Storage in a California 33% Renewable Scenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Denholm, P.; Wan, Y. H.; Hummon, M.; Mehos, M.

    2013-03-01

    This analysis evaluates CSP with TES in a scenario where California derives 33% of its electricity from renewable energy sources. It uses a commercial grid simulation tool to examine the avoided operational and capacity costs associated with CSP and compares this value to PV and a baseload generation with constant output. Overall, the analysis demonstrates several properties of dispatchable CSP, including the flexibility to generate during periods of high value and avoid generation during periods of lower value. Of note in this analysis is the fact that significant amount of operational value is derived from the provision of reserves in the case where CSP is allowed to provide these services. This analysis also indicates that the 'optimal' configuration of CSP could vary as a function of renewable penetration, and each configuration will need to be evaluated in terms of its ability to provide dispatchable energy, reserves, and firm capacity. The model can be used to investigate additional scenarios involving alternative technology options and generation mixes, applying these scenarios within California or in other regions of interest.

  18. A life cycle cost analysis framework for geologic storage of hydrogen : a scenario analysis.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kobos, Peter Holmes; Lord, Anna Snider; Borns, David James

    2010-10-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy has an interest in large scale hydrogen geostorage, which would offer substantial buffer capacity to meet possible disruptions in supply. Geostorage options being considered are salt caverns, depleted oil/gas reservoirs, aquifers and potentially hard rock cavrns. DOE has an interest in assessing the geological, geomechanical and economic viability for these types of hydrogen storage options. This study has developed an ecocomic analysis methodology to address costs entailed in developing and operating an underground geologic storage facility. This year the tool was updated specifically to (1) a version that is fully arrayed such that all four types of geologic storage options can be assessed at the same time, (2) incorporate specific scenarios illustrating the model's capability, and (3) incorporate more accurate model input assumptions for the wells and storage site modules. Drawing from the knowledge gained in the underground large scale geostorage options for natural gas and petroleum in the U.S. and from the potential to store relatively large volumes of CO{sub 2} in geological formations, the hydrogen storage assessment modeling will continue to build on these strengths while maintaining modeling transparency such that other modeling efforts may draw from this project.

  19. Adapting for uncertainty : a scenario analysis of U.S. technology energy futures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The pattern of future evolution for United States (US) energy markets is highly uncertain at this time. This article provided details of a study using a scenario analysis technique to investigate key energy issues affecting decision-making processes in the United States. Four scenarios were used to examine the driving forces and critical uncertainties that may shape United States energy markets and the economy for the next 50 years: (1) a reference scenario benchmarked to the 2002 annual energy outlook forecast, (2) abundant and inexpensive supplies of oil and gas, (3) a chaotic future beset with international conflict, faltering new technologies, environmental policy difficulties and slowed economic growth, and (4) a technology-driven market in which a variety of forces converge to reshape the energy sector. Each of the scenarios was quantified using a computable general equilibrium model known as the All Modular Industry Growth Assessment (AMIGA) model. Results suggested that the range of different outcomes for the US is broad. However, energy use is expected to increase in all 4 scenarios. It was observed that the introduction of policies to encourage capital stock turnover and accelerate the commercialization of high efficiency, low-emissions technologies may reduce future primary energy demand. The analysis also showed that lower energy prices may lead to higher economic growth. Policies introduced to improve energy efficiency and accelerate the introduction of new technologies did not appreciably reduce the prospects for economic growth. Results also suggested that lower fossil fuel prices discourage investments in energy efficiency or new technologies and may mask the task of responding to future surprises. It was concluded that an investment path that emphasizes both energy efficiency improvements and advanced energy supply technologies will provide economic growth conditions similar to the implementation of lower energy prices. 11 refs., 1 tab., 2 figs

  20. Performance Analysis of Ad Hoc Routing Protocols in City Scenario for VANET

    Science.gov (United States)

    Das, Sanjoy; Raw, Ram Shringar; Das, Indrani

    2011-12-01

    In this paper, performance analysis of Location Aided Routing (LAR), AODV and DSR protocol in city scenarios has been done. The mobility model considered is Manhattan model. This mobility model used to emulate the movement pattern of nodes i.e., vehicles on streets defined by maps. Our objective is to provide a comparative analysis among LAR, AODV and DSR protocol in city scenarios in Vehicular Ad hoc Networks. The simulation work has been conducted using the Glomosim 2.03 simulator. The results show that LAR1 protocol achieves maximum packet delivery ratio is 100% in the sparsely populated network. The delay is maximum in AODV 121.88 ms when the number of node is 10 in the network. The results show that LAR1 outperform DSR and AODV in term of packet delivery ratio and end to end delay.

  1. Gas allocation plans based on failures scenarios: PETROBRAS-Gas and Power Sector

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Faertes, Denise; Vieira, Flavia; Saker, Leonardo; Heil, Luciana [PETROBRAS, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Galvao, Joao [DNV, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2009-07-01

    The purpose of this paper is to present gas allocation plans developed for PETROBRAS Gas and Power Sector, considering failure to supply scenarios that could occur along gas supply network. Those scenarios, as well as the associated contingency plans, were identified and validated by an experienced team, composed by engineers and operators from different PETROBRAS sectors. The key issue of concern was the anticipation of possible undesired scenarios that could imply on contract shortfalls, the evaluation of possible maneuvers, taking into account best gas delivery allocation. Different software were used for the simulation of best gas supply allocation and for the verification of delivery pressure and conditions for final consumers. The ability of being capable of dealing with undesired or crisis scenarios, based on suitable anticipation levels, is, nowadays, a highly valuable attribute to be presented by competitive corporations, for best crisis management and prompt recovery response. Those plans are being used by Gas and Power Gas Operation Control Centre and as an input for reliability modeling of gas supply chain. (author)

  2. Developing scenarios to assess future landslide risks: a model-based approach applied to mountainous regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vacquie, Laure; Houet, Thomas

    2016-04-01

    In the last century, European mountain landscapes have experienced significant transformations. Natural and anthropogenic changes, climate changes, touristic and industrial development, socio-economic interactions, and their implications in terms of LUCC (land use and land cover changes) have directly influenced the spatial organization and vulnerability of mountain landscapes. This study is conducted as part of the SAMCO project founded by the French National Science Agency (ANR). It aims at developing a methodological approach, combining various tools, modelling platforms and methods, to identify vulnerable regions to landslide hazards accounting for futures LUCC. It presents an integrated approach combining participative scenarios and a LULC changes simulation models to assess the combined effects of LUCC and climate change on landslide risks in the Cauterets valley (French Pyrenees Mountains) up to 2100. Through vulnerability and risk mapping, the objective is to gather information to support landscape planning and implement land use strategies with local stakeholders for risk management. Four contrasting scenarios are developed and exhibit contrasting trajectories of socio-economic development. Prospective scenarios are based on national and international socio-economic contexts relying on existing assessment reports. The methodological approach integrates knowledge from local stakeholders to refine each scenario during their construction and to reinforce their plausibility and relevance by accounting for local specificities, e.g. logging and pastoral activities, touristic development, urban planning, etc. A process-based model, the Forecasting Scenarios for Mountains (ForeSceM) model, developed on the Dinamica Ego modelling platform is used to spatially allocate futures LUCC for each prospective scenario. Concurrently, a spatial decision support tool, i.e. the SYLVACCESS model, is used to identify accessible areas for forestry in scenario projecting logging

  3. Scenario Analysis of Nutrient Removal from Municipal Wastewater by Microalgal Biofilms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    René H. Wijffels

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Microalgae can be used for the treatment of municipal wastewater. The application of microalgal biofilms in wastewater treatment systems seems attractive, being able to remove nitrogen, phosphorus and COD from wastewater at a short hydraulic retention time. This study therefore investigates the area requirement, achieved effluent concentrations and biomass production of a hypothetical large-scale microalgal biofilm system treating municipal wastewater. Three scenarios were defined: using microalgal biofilms: (1 as a post-treatment; (2 as a second stage of wastewater treatment, after a first stage in which COD is removed by activated sludge; and (3 in a symbiotic microalgal/heterotrophic system. The analysis showed that in the Netherlands, the area requirements for these three scenarios range from 0.32 to 2.1 m2 per person equivalent. Moreover, it was found that it was not possible to simultaneously remove all nitrogen and phosphorus from the wastewater, because of the nitrogen:phosphorus ratio in the wastewater. Phosphorus was limiting in the post-treatment scenario, while nitrogen was limiting in the two other scenarios. Furthermore, a substantial amount of microalgal biomass was produced, ranging from 13 to 59 g per person equivalent per day. These findings show that microalgal biofilm systems hold large potential as seasonal wastewater treatment systems and that it is worthwhile to investigate these systems further.

  4. An evaluation of implementing problem-based learning scenarios in an immersive virtual world

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maggi Savin-Baden

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Objectives: This paper will describe a project adopting a pedagogical approach that implemented and evaluated a problem-based learning project in an immersive virtual world. The project involved an iterative process of testing scenarios using student feedback to improve upon the scenarios. Methods: The study used illuminative evaluation which is argued to take account of wider contexts than more traditional evaluation and, is primarily concerned with description and interpretation rather than measurement and prediction. The evaluation encompassed formative elements to inform the project team and summative elements to establish the worth of what was achieved. Results: The findings in many ways were more positive than initially anticipated, but there were also a number of challenges. The themes that emerged for the data were technological challenges, pedagogical design, usability and avatar identity, collaboration and Interaction. Conclusions: Students appreciated the value of Second Life as a collaborative environment, but also viewed such practice-based simulations as valuable for individual work. An interesting consequence of the richness and authenticity of the Second Life scenarios is the large amount of detail provided, much more than is usual in paper-based face-to face problem-based learning sessions.

  5. An interdisciplinary scenario analysis to assess the water availability and water consumption in the Upper Ouémé catchment in Benin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Giertz

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an interdisciplinary scenario analysis to assess the influence of global and regional change on future water availability and water consumption in the Upper Ouémé catchment in central Benin. For the region three development scenarios were evolved. These scenarios are combined with climate change scenarios based on the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In the mo-delling approach the quantification of the land use/land cover change is performed by the cellular automata model CLUE-S. The future climate scenarios are computed with the regional climate model REMO driven by the global ECHAM model. Using this data different land use and climate change scenarios can be calculated with the conceptual hydrological model UHP-HRU to assess the effects of global changes on the future water availability in Benin. To analyse the future water availability also the water consumption has to be taken into account. Due to high population growth an increase in water need in the future is expected for the region. To calculate the future household water consumption data from a regional survey and demographic projections are used. Development of the water need for animal husbandry is also considered. The first test run of the modelling approach was performed for the development scenario 'business as usual' combined with the IPCC scenario B2 for the year 2025. This test demonstrates the applicability of the approach for an interdisciplinary scenario analysis. A continuous run from 2000–2025 will be simulated for different scenarios as soon as the input data concerning land use/land cover and climate are available.

  6. The Application of Scenario Analysis in the Overall Planning of Land Use:A Case Study of Shangluo City in Shaanxi Province

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SUN Pi-ling; YANG Hai-juan

    2012-01-01

    The overall planning of land use is a complex process of joint action of social system, natural and economic conditions. On the basis of summarizing the existing researches, we select Shaanxi’s Shangluo City, located in the Qinba mountainous area as the study object, to expound the concept and steps of scenario analysis based on land use change data, under the guidance of ecological safety and sustainable development theory. We design four different scenarios of land use planning program in Shangluo City during the period 2006-2020, and use grey linear programming model to analyze each scenario. The results show that the scenario analysis is feasible in the adjustment of land use structure in Shangluo City; operable in the determining of land use planning program on a macro-municipal scale.

  7. Multimedia Scenario Based Learning Programme for Enhancing the English Language Efficiency among Primary School Students

    OpenAIRE

    Navnath Tupe

    2015-01-01

    This research was undertaken with a view to assess the deficiencies in English language among Primary School Children and to develop Multimedia Scenario Based Learning Programme (MSBLP) for mastery of English language which required special attention and effective treatment. The experimental study with pretest, post-test control group design was employed to carry out the experiment of MSBLP in a sample school and to determine its efficacy for enhancing English Language skill...

  8. Play Hard, Work Harder. Alternative Reality Game and Scenario Based Assessments for Learning.

    OpenAIRE

    Ryan, Barry

    2014-01-01

    In this paper, an evaluative case study is detailed as an example of alternative reality game and scenario based assessments for learning. This pedagogic approach is evaluated and recommendations for practice offered. Integrating technology into the assessment process, and final student product, influenced the chosen pedagogy. The use of technology permitted this assessment approach to be adopted for a medium sized (n=40) student cohort. The use of wikis, eportfolios and digital reflective di...

  9. InfoStation-based Adaptable Provision of m Learning Services: Main Scenarios

    OpenAIRE

    Ganchev, Ivan; Stojanov, Stanimir; O’Droma, Mairtin; Meere, Damien

    2008-01-01

    This paper presents an adaptable InfoStation-based multi-agent system facilitating the mobile eLearning (mLearning) service provision within a University Campus. A horizontal view of the network architecture is presented. Main communications scenarios are considered by describing the detailed interaction of the system entities involved in the mLearning service provision. The mTest service is explored as a practical example. System implementation approaches are also considered.

  10. Effect of Problem Based Learning Scenario on Knowledge of Third Class Students About Childhood Poisoning

    OpenAIRE

    Nazan Karaoğlu; Sevgi Pekcan; Burak Cem Soner; Muzaffer Şeker; Rahmi Örs

    2011-01-01

    Introduction: It is stated that students cannot carry their knowledge on basic medical sciences that they gained with classical education to clinical classes and clinical practice and problem based learning (PBL) can compensate this drawback. It was aimed to evaluate the effect of PBL scenario written on this topic on level of knowledge about childhood poisoning of third class students who completed the most of theoretical pharmacology education.Materials and Method: A questionnaire form prep...

  11. Projection in Future Drought Hazard of South Korea Based on RCP Climate Change Scenario 8.5 Using SPEI

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Byung Sik Kim

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI analysis was conducted using monthly precipitation data and temperature data on a 12.5 km × 12.5 km resolution based on a Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 8.5 climate change scenario, and the characteristics of drought were identified by the threshold. In addition, the changes in drought severity and intensity were projected using the threshold based on the run-length concept and frequency analysis. As a result of the analysis, the probability density function of the total drought and maximum drought intensity moved the upper tail for the upcoming years, and the average drought intensity was also projected to become stronger in the future than in the present to the right side. Through this, it could be projected that the drought scale and frequency and the drought intensity will become severer over South Korea because of future climate change.

  12. Assessing Interventions to Manage West Nile Virus Using Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis with Risk Scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hongoh, Valerie; Campagna, Céline; Panic, Mirna; Samuel, Onil; Gosselin, Pierre; Waaub, Jean-Philippe; Ravel, André; Samoura, Karim; Michel, Pascal

    2016-01-01

    The recent emergence of West Nile virus (WNV) in North America highlights vulnerability to climate sensitive diseases and stresses the importance of preventive efforts to reduce their public health impact. Effective prevention involves reducing environmental risk of exposure and increasing adoption of preventive behaviours, both of which depend on knowledge and acceptance of such measures. When making operational decisions about disease prevention and control, public health must take into account a wide range of operational, environmental, social and economic considerations in addition to intervention effectiveness. The current study aimed to identify, assess and rank possible risk reduction measures taking into account a broad set of criteria and perspectives applicable to the management of WNV in Quebec under increasing transmission risk scenarios, some of which may be related to ongoing warming in higher-latitude regions. A participatory approach was used to collect information on categories of concern to relevant stakeholders with respect to WNV prevention and control. Multi-criteria decision analysis was applied to examine stakeholder perspectives and their effect on strategy rankings under increasing transmission risk scenarios. Twenty-three preventive interventions were retained for evaluation using eighteen criteria identified by stakeholders. Combined evaluations revealed that, at an individual-level, inspecting window screen integrity, wearing light colored, long clothing, eliminating peridomestic larval sites and reducing outdoor activities at peak times were top interventions under six WNV transmission scenarios. At a regional-level, the use of larvicides was a preferred strategy in five out of six scenarios, while use of adulticides and dissemination of sterile male mosquitoes were found to be among the least favoured interventions in almost all scenarios. Our findings suggest that continued public health efforts aimed at reinforcing individual

  13. Assessing Interventions to Manage West Nile Virus Using Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis with Risk Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hongoh, Valerie; Campagna, Céline; Panic, Mirna; Samuel, Onil; Gosselin, Pierre; Waaub, Jean-Philippe; Ravel, André; Samoura, Karim; Michel, Pascal

    2016-01-01

    The recent emergence of West Nile virus (WNV) in North America highlights vulnerability to climate sensitive diseases and stresses the importance of preventive efforts to reduce their public health impact. Effective prevention involves reducing environmental risk of exposure and increasing adoption of preventive behaviours, both of which depend on knowledge and acceptance of such measures. When making operational decisions about disease prevention and control, public health must take into account a wide range of operational, environmental, social and economic considerations in addition to intervention effectiveness. The current study aimed to identify, assess and rank possible risk reduction measures taking into account a broad set of criteria and perspectives applicable to the management of WNV in Quebec under increasing transmission risk scenarios, some of which may be related to ongoing warming in higher-latitude regions. A participatory approach was used to collect information on categories of concern to relevant stakeholders with respect to WNV prevention and control. Multi-criteria decision analysis was applied to examine stakeholder perspectives and their effect on strategy rankings under increasing transmission risk scenarios. Twenty-three preventive interventions were retained for evaluation using eighteen criteria identified by stakeholders. Combined evaluations revealed that, at an individual-level, inspecting window screen integrity, wearing light colored, long clothing, eliminating peridomestic larval sites and reducing outdoor activities at peak times were top interventions under six WNV transmission scenarios. At a regional-level, the use of larvicides was a preferred strategy in five out of six scenarios, while use of adulticides and dissemination of sterile male mosquitoes were found to be among the least favoured interventions in almost all scenarios. Our findings suggest that continued public health efforts aimed at reinforcing individual

  14. Assessing Interventions to Manage West Nile Virus Using Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis with Risk Scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hongoh, Valerie; Campagna, Céline; Panic, Mirna; Samuel, Onil; Gosselin, Pierre; Waaub, Jean-Philippe; Ravel, André; Samoura, Karim; Michel, Pascal

    2016-01-01

    The recent emergence of West Nile virus (WNV) in North America highlights vulnerability to climate sensitive diseases and stresses the importance of preventive efforts to reduce their public health impact. Effective prevention involves reducing environmental risk of exposure and increasing adoption of preventive behaviours, both of which depend on knowledge and acceptance of such measures. When making operational decisions about disease prevention and control, public health must take into account a wide range of operational, environmental, social and economic considerations in addition to intervention effectiveness. The current study aimed to identify, assess and rank possible risk reduction measures taking into account a broad set of criteria and perspectives applicable to the management of WNV in Quebec under increasing transmission risk scenarios, some of which may be related to ongoing warming in higher-latitude regions. A participatory approach was used to collect information on categories of concern to relevant stakeholders with respect to WNV prevention and control. Multi-criteria decision analysis was applied to examine stakeholder perspectives and their effect on strategy rankings under increasing transmission risk scenarios. Twenty-three preventive interventions were retained for evaluation using eighteen criteria identified by stakeholders. Combined evaluations revealed that, at an individual-level, inspecting window screen integrity, wearing light colored, long clothing, eliminating peridomestic larval sites and reducing outdoor activities at peak times were top interventions under six WNV transmission scenarios. At a regional-level, the use of larvicides was a preferred strategy in five out of six scenarios, while use of adulticides and dissemination of sterile male mosquitoes were found to be among the least favoured interventions in almost all scenarios. Our findings suggest that continued public health efforts aimed at reinforcing individual

  15. Developing Courses with Holorena, A Framework for Scenario- and Game Based E-Learning Environments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laszlo Juracz

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available However utilizing rich, interactive solutions can make learning more effective and attractive, scenarioandgame-based educational resources on the web are not widely used. Creating these applications is acomplex, expensive and challenging process. Development frameworks and authoring tools hardlysupport reusable components, teamwork and learning management system-independent coursewarearchitecture. In this article we initiate the concept of a low-level, thick-client solution addressing theseproblems. With some example applications we try to demonstrate, how a framework, based on thisconcept can be useful for developing scenario- and game-based e-learning environments.

  16. Study of the triton-burnup process in different JET scenarios using neutron monitor based on CVD diamond

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nemtsev, G.; Amosov, V.; Meshchaninov, S.; Popovichev, S.; Rodionov, R.

    2016-11-01

    We present the results of analysis of triton burn-up process using the data from diamond detector. Neutron monitor based on CVD diamond was installed in JET torus hall close to the plasma center. We measure the part of 14 MeV neutrons in scenarios where plasma current varies in a range of 1-3 MA. In this experiment diamond neutron monitor was also able to detect strong gamma bursts produced by runaway electrons arising during the disruptions. We can conclude that CVD diamond detector will contribute to the study of fast particles confinement and help predict the disruption events in future tokamaks.

  17. A Scenario-Based Approach for Energy Storage Capacity Determination in LV Grids with High PV Penetration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hashemi Toghroljerdi, Seyedmostafa; Østergaard, Jacob; Yang, Guangya

    2014-01-01

    analysis of feasible scenarios associated with the net injected power into the grid by customers. A new concept is defined based on the remaining power curve (RPC) associated with the local generation and consumption, and the uncertainties related to PV output and load consumption are modeled in some RPCs...... with different occurrence probabilities without involving the time-series studies problems. The proposed method is capable of modeling output power of PV panels with different orientations as well as different electric vehicle (EV) charging patterns....

  18. Analysis of a single primary coolant pump trip scenario in a PHWR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper addresses the analysis of a single primary coolant pump (PCP) trip scenario in a 220 MWe Indian pressurized heavy water reactor (PHWR). The analysis is carried out using a lumped parameter model. The time dependent mass, momentum and energy for conservation equations for the primary system are solved using finite difference scheme. The predictions of the model for the time required to reach the over-pressure trip value was in good agreement with the plant data. Parametric studies are carried out to study the influences of the isolation of the failed branch and a delay in the trip of the diagonally opposite PCP. (author). 2 refs., 13 figs., 1 tab

  19. Modelling land use changes according to transportation scenarios using raster based GIS indicators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fuglsang, Morten; Münier, Bernd; Hansen, Henning Sten

    2012-01-01

    the cellular automata model LUCIA. An Eastern Danish case area was selected, comprising the Copenhagen metropolitan area and its hinterland. The different scenarios are described using a range of different GIS datasets. These include mapping of accessibility based on public and private transportation, urban......The modelling of land use change is a way to analyse future scenarios by modelling different future pathways. This study demonstrates the potential to explore and test the understanding of land use change relations by applying spatial data of different scales, coupled with socio-economic data....... In the EU-FP7 research project PASHMINA (Paradigm Shift modelling and innovative approaches), three storylines of future transportation paradigm shifts towards 2050 are created. These storylines are translated into spatial planning strategies and their implication on land use changes were modelled via...

  20. Development of Accident Scenario for Interim Spent Fuel Storage Facility Based on Fukushima Accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    700 MTU of spent nuclear fuel is discharged from nuclear fleet every year and spent fuel storage is currently 70.9% full. The on-site wet type spent fuel storage pool of each NPP(nuclear power plants) in Korea will shortly exceed its storage limit. Backdrop, the Korean government has rolled out a plan to construct an interim spent fuel storage facility by 2024. However, the type of interim spent fuel storage facility has not been decided yet in detail. The Fukushima accident has resulted in more stringent requirements for nuclear facilities in case of beyond design basis accidents. Therefore, there has been growing demand for developing scenario on interim storage facility to prepare for beyond design basis accidents and conducting dose assessment based on the scenario to verify the safety of each type of storage

  1. Improved seismic risk estimation for Bucharest, based on multiple hazard scenarios, analytical methods and new techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toma-Danila, Dragos; Florinela Manea, Elena; Ortanza Cioflan, Carmen

    2014-05-01

    a very local-dependent hazard. Also, for major earthquakes, nonlinear effects need to be considered. This problem is treated accordingly, by using recent microzonation studies, together with real data recorded at 4 events with Mw≥6. Different ground motion prediction equations are also analyzed, and improvement of them is investigated. For the buildings and population damage assessment, two open-source software are used and compared: SELENA and ELER. The damage probability for buildings is obtained through capacity-spectrum based methods. The spectral content is used for spectral acceleration at 0.2, 0.3 and 1 seconds. As the level of analysis (6 sectors for all the city) has not the best resolution with respect to the Bucharest hazard scenarios defined, we propose a procedure on how to divide the data into smaller units, taking into consideration the construction code (4 periods) and material. This approach relies on free data available from real estate agencies web-sites. The study provides an insight view on the seismic risk analysis for Bucharest and an improvement of the real-time emergency system. Most important, the system is also evaluated through real data and relevant scenarios. State-of-the art GIS maps are also presented, both for seismic hazard and risk.

  2. Environmental implications of large-scale adoption of wind power: a scenario-based life cycle assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    We investigate the potential environmental impacts of a large-scale adoption of wind power to meet up to 22% of the world’s growing electricity demand. The analysis builds on life cycle assessments of generic onshore and offshore wind farms, meant to represent average conditions for global deployment of wind power. We scale unit-based findings to estimate aggregated emissions of building, operating and decommissioning wind farms toward 2050, taking into account changes in the electricity mix in manufacturing. The energy scenarios investigated are the International Energy Agency’s BLUE scenarios. We estimate 1.7–2.6 Gt CO2-eq climate change, 2.1–3.2 Mt N-eq marine eutrophication, 9.2–14 Mt NMVOC photochemical oxidant formation, and 9.5–15 Mt SO2-eq terrestrial acidification impact category indicators due to global wind power in 2007–50. Assuming lifetimes 5 yr longer than reference, the total climate change indicator values are reduced by 8%. In the BLUE Map scenario, construction of new capacity contributes 64%, and repowering of existing capacity 38%, to total cumulative greenhouse gas emissions. The total emissions of wind electricity range between 4% and 14% of the direct emissions of the replaced fossil-fueled power plants. For all impact categories, the indirect emissions of displaced fossil power are larger than the total emissions caused by wind power.

  3. Applying Cellular Automata for Simulating and Assessing Urban Growth Scenario Based in Nairobi, Kenya

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kenneth Mubea

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This research explores urban growth based scenarios for the city of Nairobi using a cellular automata urban growth model (UGM. African cities have experienced rapid urbanization over the last decade due to increased population growth and high economic activities. We used multi-temporal Landsat imageries for 1976, 1986, 2000 and 2010 to investigate urban land-use changes in Nairobi. Our UGM used data from urban land-use of 1986 and 2010, road data, slope data and exclusion layer. Monte-Carlo technique was used for model calibration and Multi Resolution Validation (MRV technique for validation. Simulation of urban land-use was done up to the year 2030 when Kenya plans to attain Vision 2030. Three scenarios were explored in the urban modelling process; unmanaged growth with no restriction on environmental areas, managed growth with moderate protection, and a managed growth with maximum protection on forest, agricultural areas, and urban green. Thus alternative scenario development using UGM is useful for planning purposes so as to ensure sustainable development is achieved. UGM provides quantitative, visual, spatial and temporal information which aid policy and decision makers can make informed decisions.

  4. Scenario analysis for biodiversity conservation: a social-ecological system approach in the Australian Alps.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitchell, Michael; Lockwood, Michael; Moore, Susan A; Clement, Sarah

    2015-03-01

    Current policy interventions are having limited success in addressing the ongoing decline in global biodiversity. In part, this is attributable to insufficient attention being paid to the social and governance processes that drive decisions and can undermine their implementation. Scenario planning that draws on social-ecological systems (SES) analysis provides a useful means to systematically explore and anticipate future uncertainties regarding the interaction between humans and biodiversity outcomes. However, the effective application of SES models has been limited by the insufficient attention given to governance influences. Understanding the influence governance attributes have on the future trajectory of SES is likely to assist choice of effective interventions, as well as needs and opportunities for governance reform. In a case study in the Australian Alps, we explore the potential of joint SES and scenario analyses to identify how governance influences landscape-scale biodiversity outcomes. Novel aspects of our application of these methods were the specification of the focal system's governance attributes according to requirements for adaptive capacity, and constraining scenarios according to the current governance settings while varying key social and biophysical drivers. This approach allowed us to identify how current governance arrangements influence landscape-scale biodiversity outcomes, and establishes a baseline from which the potential benefits of governance reform can be assessed.

  5. Pre-test analysis of ATLAS SBO with RCP seal leakage scenario using MARS code

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pham, Quang Huy; Lee, Sang Young; Oh, Seung Jong [KEPCO International Nuclear Graduate School, Ulsan (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-10-15

    This study presents a pre-test calculation for the Advanced Thermal-hydraulic Test Loop for Accident Simulation (ATLAS) SBO experiment with RCP seal leakage scenario. Initially, turbine-driven auxfeed water pumps are used. Then, outside cooling water injection method is used for long term cooling. The analysis results would be useful for conducting the experiment to verify the APR 1400 extended SBO optimum mitigation strategy using outside cooling water injection in future. The pre-test calculation for ATLAS extended SBO with RCP seal leakage and outside cooling water injection scenario is performed. After Fukushima nuclear accident, the capability of coping with the extended station blackout (SBO) becomes important. Many NPPs are applying FLEX approach as main coping strategies for extended SBO scenarios. In FLEX strategies, outside cooling water injection to reactor cooling system (RCS) and steam generators (SGs) is considered as an effective method to remove residual heat and maintain the inventory of the systems during the accident. It is worthwhile to examine the soundness of outside cooling water injection method for extended SBO mitigation by both calculation and experimental demonstration. From the calculation results, outside cooling water injection into RCS and SGs is verified as an effective method during extended SBO when RCS and SGs depressurization is sufficiently performed.

  6. Scenario-based assessment of buildings damage and population exposure due to tsunamis for the town of Alexandria, Egypt

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pagnoni, G.; Armigliato, A.; Tinti, S.

    2015-08-01

    Alexandria is the second biggest city in Egypt as regards population, is a key economic area in northern Africa and has a very important tourist activity. Historical catalogues indicate that it was severely affected by a number of tsunami events. In this work we assess the tsunami hazard by running numerical simulations of tsunami impact in Alexandria through the Worst-case Credible Tsunami Scenario Analysis (WCTSA). We identify three main seismic sources: the Western Hellenic Arc (WHA - reference event AD 365, Mw = 8.5), the Eastern Hellenic Arc (EHA - reference event 1303, Mw = 8.0) and the Cyprus Arc (CA - hypothetical scenario earthquake with Mw = 8.0), inferred from the tectonic setting and from historical tsunami catalogues. All numerical simulations are carried out by means of the code UBO-TSUFD, developed and maintained by the Tsunami Research Team of the University of Bologna. Relevant tsunami metrics are computed for each scenario and then used to build aggregated fields such as the maximum flood depth and the maximum inundation area. We find that the case that produces the most relevant flooding in Alexandria is the EHA scenario, with wave heights up to 4 m. The aggregate fields are used for a building vulnerability assessment according to a methodology developed in the frame of the EU-FP6 project SCHEMA and further refined in this study, based on the adoption of a suitable building damage matrix and on water inundation depth. It is found that in the districts of El Dekhila and Al Amriyah, to the south-west of the port of Dekhila over 12 000 buildings could be affected and hundreds of them could incur in consequences ranging from important damage to total collapse. It is also found that in the same districts tsunami inundation covers an area of about 15 km2 resulting in more than 150 000 residents being exposed.

  7. Scenario-based assessment of buildings damage and population exposure due to tsunamis for the town of Alexandria, Egypt

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Pagnoni

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Alexandria is the second biggest city in Egypt as regards population, is a key economic area in northern Africa and has a very important tourist activity. Historical catalogues indicate that it was severely affected by a number of tsunami events. In this work we assess the tsunami hazard by running numerical simulations of tsunami impact in Alexandria through the Worst-case Credible Tsunami Scenario Analysis (WCTSA. We identify three main seismic sources: the Western Hellenic Arc (WHA – reference event AD 365, Mw = 8.5, the Eastern Hellenic Arc (EHA – reference event 1303, Mw = 8.0 and the Cyprus Arc (CA – hypothetical scenario earthquake with Mw = 8.0, inferred from the tectonic setting and from historical tsunami catalogues. All numerical simulations are carried out by means of the code UBO-TSUFD, developed and maintained by the Tsunami Research Team of the University of Bologna. Relevant tsunami metrics are computed for each scenario and then used to build aggregated fields such as the maximum flood depth and the maximum inundation area. We find that the case that produces the most relevant flooding in Alexandria is the EHA scenario, with wave heights up to 4 m. The aggregate fields are used for a building vulnerability assessment according to a methodology developed in the frame of the EU-FP6 project SCHEMA and further refined in this study, based on the adoption of a suitable building damage matrix and on water inundation depth. It is found that in the districts of El Dekhila and Al Amriyah, to the south-west of the port of Dekhila over 12 000 buildings could be affected and hundreds of them could incur in consequences ranging from important damage to total collapse. It is also found that in the same districts tsunami inundation covers an area of about 15 km2 resulting in more than 150 000 residents being exposed.

  8. Scenario analysis of Agro-Environment measure adoption for soil erosion protection in Sicilian vineyard (Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Novara, Agata; Gristina, Luciano; Fantappiè, Maria; Costantini, Edoardo

    2014-05-01

    carbon content of the topsoil (averaged on the first 50 cm of soil depth) with the table published by Stone and Hilborn (2012). The slope-length and slope gradient (LS) factors were derived from the Digital Terrain Model of Sicily (20 x 20 m) using the formulas proposed by Wischmeier and Smith (1978), and revised by McCool et al. (1987 and 1989). The C factor were applied according previous studies in the same area and ranged among 0.22 and 0.12 and less than 0.10 using permanent species able to reduce erosion rate up to 90% (Gristina et al., 2006; Novara et al. 2011). The scenario analysis of the soil erosion reduction after the adoption of AEM could be used by policy makers as a base for the evaluation of the Payment for Ecosystem Service (PES) to be paid to farmers through the future Agro-Ecosystem measures incentives. Gristina, L., Bagarello, V., Ferro, V., Poma, I., 2006. Cover and management factor for Sicilian vineyard systems. In: 14th International Soil conservation Organization Conference—Water Management and Soil Conservation in Semi-arid Environments, 14-19 May 2006, Marrakech, Marocco (ISCO2006), pp. 1-4. A Novara, L Gristina, SS Saladino, A Santoro, A Cerda 2011 Soil erosion assessment on tillage and alternative soil managements in a Sicilian vineyard. Soil and Tillage Research 117, 140-147

  9. Analysis of Value Chain Governance: Scenarios to Develop Small-Scale Furniture Producers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rika Harini Irawati

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE X-NONE MicrosoftInternetExplorer4 Furniture industry had shown a long chain of production to consumption, from raw material producers (tree growers, semi-finished producers, finished product producers, and retailers to exporters. Jepara as a centre furniture industry in Indonesia incorporates around 15,000 business units and provide livelihoods to approximately 170,000 workers. This sector contributes about 27% of Jepara‘s people domestic income. Small and medium furniture enterprises (SMEs have significant roles in the furniture industry as production structures are characterized by them. Power and information imbalance throughout the furniture value chain have resulted in problems of uneven distribution of gains among actors of the industry. SME furniture producers have experienced an unfair value added distribution. Hence, development of SMEs is important for strengthening the industry and expected to result in a portion of value added distribution to them.  We are trying to develop scenarios for SME improvement in the furniture industry in Jepara by identifying their problems and implementing Value Chain Analysis (VCA. VCA is an approach to describe SME producer relations with other actors in the industry and the governance type of their relations. Data is collected by interviewing selected SMEs from the association of small scale producers in Jepara to get detailed maps of their value chain. The research will produce future scenarios and intervention points to improve small-scale producer sustainability and better value added distribution among furniture actors. The scenarios will not only benefit selected producers but also the furniture industry of Jepara, and can be adopted for similar industries throughout Indonesia and abroad. Keywords: furniture, value chain, governance, scenario, small-scale

  10. Blind estimation of the number of speech source in reverberant multisource scenarios based on binaural signals

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    May, Tobias; van de Par, Steven

    2012-01-01

    In this paper we present a new approach for estimating the number of active speech sources in the presence of interfering noise sources and reverberation. First, a binaural front-end is used to detect the spatial positions of all active sound sources, resulting in a binary mask for each candidate...... on a support vector machine (SVM) classifier. A systematic analysis shows that the proposed algorithm is able to blindly determine the number and the corresponding spatial positions of speech sources in multisource scenarios and generalizes well to unknown acoustic conditions...

  11. Analysis of the stability of PTW riders in autonomous braking scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Symeonidis, Ioannis; Kavadarli, Gueven; Erich, Schuller; Graw, Matthias; Peldschus, Steffen

    2012-11-01

    While fatalities of car occupants in the EU decreased remarkably over the last decade, Powered Two Wheelers (PTWs) fatalities still increase following the increase of PTW ownership. Autonomous braking systems have been implemented in several types of vehicles and are presently addressed by research in the field of PTWs. A major concern in this context is the rider stability. Experiments with volunteers were performed in order to find out whether autonomous braking for PTWs will produce a greater instability of the rider in comparison to manual braking. The PTW's braking conditions were simulated in a laboratory with a motorcycle mock-up mounted on a sled, which was accelerated with an average of 0.35 g. The motion of the rider was captured in autonomous braking scenarios with and without pre-warning as well as in manual braking scenarios. No significant differences between the scenarios were found with respect to maximum forward displacement of the volunteer's torso and head (pautonomous braking at low deceleration will not cause significant instabilities of the rider in comparison to manual braking in idealized laboratory conditions. Based on this, further research into the development and implementation of autonomous braking systems for PTWs, e.g. by extensive riding tests, seems valuable.

  12. Assessment of vulnerability to future marine processes of urbanized coastal environments by a GIS-based approach: expected scenario in the metropolitan area of Bari (Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mancini, F.; Ceppi, C.; Christopulos, V.

    2013-12-01

    Literature concerning the risk assessment procedures after extreme meteorological events is generally focused on the establishing of relationship between actual severe weather conditions and impact detected over the involved zones. Such an events are classified on the basis of measurements and observation able to assess the magnitude of phenomena or on the basis of related effects on the affected area, the latter being deeply connected with the overall physical vulnerability. However such assessment almost never do consider scenario about expected extreme event and possible pattern of urbanization at the time of impact and nor the spatial and temporal uncertainty of phenomena are taken into account. The drawn of future scenario about coastal vulnerability to marine processes is therefore difficult. This work focuses the study case of the Metropoli Terra di Bari (metropolitan area of Bari, Apulia, Italy) where a coastal vulnerability analysis due to climate changes expected on the basis of expert opinions coming from the scientific community was carried out. Several possible impacts on the coastal environments were considered, in particular sea level rise inundation, flooding due to storm surge and coastal erosion. For such a purpose the methodology base on SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenario) produced by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) was adopted after a regionalization procedure as carried out by Verburgh and others (2006) at the European scale. The open source software SLEUTH, base on the cellular automate principle, was used and the reliability of obtained scenario verified through the Monte Carlo method. Once these scenario were produced, a GIS-based multicriteria methodology was implemented to evaluate the vulnerability of the urbanized coastal area of interest. Several vulnerability maps related are therefore available for different scenario able to consider the degree of hazards and potential development of the typology and extent

  13. Scenario analysis of the benefit of municipal organic-waste composting over landfill, Cambodia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seng, Bunrith; Hirayama, Kimiaki; Katayama-Hirayama, Keiko; Ochiai, Satoru; Kaneko, Hidehiro

    2013-01-15

    This paper presents insight into the benefits of organic waste recycling through composting over landfill, in terms of landfill life extension, compost product, and mitigation of greenhouse gases (GHGs). Future waste generation from 2003 to 2020 was forecast, and five scenarios of organic waste recycling in the municipality of Phnom Penh (MPP), Cambodia, were carried out. Organic waste-specifically food and garden waste-was used for composting, and the remaining waste was landfilled. The recycling scenarios were set based on organic waste generated from difference sources: households, restaurants, shops, markets, schools, hotels, offices, and street sweeping. Through the five scenarios, the minimum volume reductions of waste disposal were about 56, 123, and 219 m(3) d(-1) in 2003, 2012, and 2020, respectively, whereas the maximum volume reductions in these years were about 325, 643, and 1025 m(3) d(-1). These volume reductions reflect a landfill life extension of a minimum of half a year and a maximum of about four years. Compost product could be produced at a minimum of 14, 30, and 54 tons d(-1) in 2003, 2012, and 2020, respectively, and at a maximum in those years of about 80, 158, and 252 tons d(-1). At the same time benefit is gained in compost product, GHG emissions could be reduced by a minimum of 12.8% and a maximum of 65.0% from 2003 to 2020. This means about 3.23 (minimum) and 5.79 million tons CO(2)eq (maximum) contributed to GHG mitigation. In this regard, it is strongly recommended that MPP should try to initiate an organic-waste recycling strategy in a best fit scenario.

  14. Particle Reduction Strategies - PAREST. PM10-cause analysis based on hypothetical emissions scenarios. Sub-report; Strategien zur Verminderung der Feinstaubbelastung - PAREST. PM10-Ursachenanalyse auf der Basis hypothetischer Emissionsszenarien. Teilbericht

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stern, Rainer [Freie Univ. Berlin (Germany). Inst. fuer Meteorologie, Troposphaerische Umweltforschung

    2013-06-15

    In this report, a PM10 cause analysis is presented, which provides an estimation of the extent to which the emitted substances from ten different source sectors are responsible for the calculated PM10 concentrations in Germany (PM = particulate matter). [German] In diesem Bericht wird eine PM10-Ursachenanalyse vorgestellt, die eine Abschaetzung liefert, in welchem Umfang die in Deutschland von den verschiedenen Verursachergruppen emittierten Stoffe fuer die in Deutschland berechneten PM10-Konzentrationen verantwortlich sind.

  15. Scenario Analysis of a Local-scale Low Carbon Society in China : An Application of Shanghai

    OpenAIRE

    2011-01-01

    Climate change is a global issue and threatens the basic element of life for people around the world. Lots of countries have set up targets and take measures to mitigate carbon dioxide emissions. China has also set up its own target to reduce carbon dioxide emission per unit of GDP by 40%-45% in 2020 compared to the level of 2005. This thesis develops a framework to estimate the emission level of carbon dioxide at local (or city) level in China by scenario analysis. This framework is applied ...

  16. Participatory scenario planning in place-based social-ecological research

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rozas, Elisa Oteros; Martín-López, Berta; Daw, Tim M.;

    2015-01-01

    Participatory scenario planning (PSP) is an increasingly popular tool in place-based environmental research for evaluating alternative futures of social-ecological systems. Although a range of guidelines on PSP methods are available in the scientific and grey literature, there is a need to reflect...... of PSP, particularly when tailored to shared objectives between local people and researchers, has enriched environmental management and scientific research through building common understanding and fostering learning about future planning of social-ecological systems. However, PSP still requires greater...

  17. Incorporating scenario-based simulation into a hospital nursing education program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagle, Beth M; McHale, Jeanne M; Alexander, Gail A; French, Brian M

    2009-01-01

    Nurse educators are challenged to provide meaningful and effective learning opportunities for both new and experienced nurses. Simulation as a teaching and learning methodology is being embraced by nursing in academic and practice settings to provide innovative educational experiences to assess and develop clinical competency, promote teamwork, and improve care processes. This article provides an overview of the historical basis for using simulation in education, simulation methodologies, and perceived advantages and disadvantages. It also provides a description of the integration of scenario-based programs using a full-scale patient simulator into nursing education programming at a large academic medical center. PMID:19226995

  18. Scenario analysis in business model choosing for instrument-making enterprise

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ye.V. Krykavskyi

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the article. The aim of this study is to develop the selection technology of the enterprise business model in conditions of market dynamism and uncertainty, as well as testing of this technology at a specific enterprise according to the method of situational analysis. The results of the analysis. Economic development of modern markets is characterized by the fact that almost all the enterprises experience significant dynamics and a high degree of entropy, which complicates the decision-making process. As the basic unit of the economy, the enterprise should respond correctly to new objective challenges, including: instability of global financial markets, business intellectualization and acceleration of scientific-technological progress with simultaneous strengthening of environmental demands to economic systems, increasing of competition and its transition to a global level, rapid change of consumer demands and individualization of consumer proposal, increased attention to corporate responsibility towards society and so on. Obviously, the important task of modern enterprises becomes a justification of business organization model, which is selected in accordance with the established potential and the aforementioned challenges. The authors have developed a selection technology of the enterprise business model, which involves the combination of scenarios use, strategic alternatives matrix, SWOT-analysis and the method of «decisions tree» during the implementation of the following steps: - generating of alternative scenarios of enterprise business models with the help of strategic alternatives matrix. Previously prepared analytical materials are used in the preparation of scenarios. Creating a scenario involves the following steps: determining a time interval formulation of the events, verbal interpretation of their essence, their quantitative assessment; - choosing the type of scenarios and scenarios selection criteria for business

  19. Top-down workforce demand extrapolation based on an EC energy road-map scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The EHRO-N team of JRC-IET provides the EC with essential data related to supply and demand for nuclear experts based on bottom-up information from the nuclear industry. The current paper deals with an alternative approach to derive figures for the demand side information of the nuclear workforce. Complementary to the bottom-up approach, a top-down modelling approach extrapolation of an EC Energy road-map nuclear energy demand scenario is followed here in addition to the survey information. In this top-down modelling approach, the number of nuclear power plants that are in operation and under construction is derived as a function of time from 2010 up to 2050 assuming that the current reactor park will be replaced by generic third generation reactors of 1400 MWe or 1000 MWe. Depending on the size of new build reactors, the analysis shows the number of new reactors required to fulfil the demand for nuclear energy. Based on workforce models for operation and construction of nuclear power plants, the model allows an extrapolation of these respective work-forces. Using the nuclear skills pyramid, the total workforce employed at a plant is broken down in a nuclear (experts), nuclearized, and nuclear aware workforce. With retirement profiles for nuclear power plants derived from the bottom-up EHRO-N survey, the replacement of the current workforce is taken into account. The peak of the new workforce (partly replacing the retiring workforce and additionally keeping up with the growing total workforce demand) for nuclear experts and nuclearized employees is to be expected at the end of the considered period (2050). However, the peak workforce for nuclear aware employees is to be expected around 2020. When comparing to historical data for the nuclear capacity being installed at the same time in Europe, it is clear that the expected future capacity to be installed at the same time in Europe is significantly lower (factor of 2) than in the early 1980's. However, it should

  20. Vulnerability Assessment of Rural Social-ecological System Based on Scenario Analysis:A Case Study of Zhonglianchuan Town in Yuzhong County%基于情景分析的西北农村社会-生态系统脆弱性研究——以榆中县中连川乡为例

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    杨新军; 张慧; 王子侨

    2015-01-01

    The vulnerability of human-environmental system is the key for geographical research. Social-eco-logical system(SES)and its resilience research provide a new idea and an integrated theoretical framework for Human-environmental analysis. In the latest decade, the objects of vulnerability study gradually transform from the ecological system to the Socio-ecological Systems, that is, the human-environmental coupled sys-tems. As Social-ecological systems have multiple-scale panarchy and multiple differing stakeholders are in-volved, the traditional methodology for assessing vulnerability of Socio-ecological Systems could not explain the uncertainty about the very system. In this article, Zhonglianhuan Town in Yuzhong County of Gansu Prov-ince was taken as the study area, a field survey about contextual interview with multiple differing stakeholders which include the farmers, local managers and academic researchers were conducted, the acceptability of dif-ferent people toward different scenarios could be measured as an indicator of their fragility. Then, the vulnera-bility of rural Social-ecological system was analyzed. The two key drivers of the rural SES were climatic drought and government policy by using scenario analysis, whose interactions decided the future of local SES. Then, with the cross-impact analysis, three scenarios ( S1, S2 and S3) were filtered which is most likely to hap-pen in the future. Based on the scenario analysis, the acceptability of stakeholders toward the three different scenarios was measured combining with social-ecological matrix, and then the vulnerability in the three diffi-dent scenarios was judged. The result indicates that, In scenario 1, Drought was alleviated and there were poli-cy support, the vulnerability of farmers and local managers is low;in scenario 2 (Drought was alleviated but there was no policy support)and 3(there was policy support but Drought occurred most frequently), the accept-ability of farmers and local managers was

  1. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in the scenario simulation with RELAP/SCDAP and MELCOR codes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A methodology was implemented for analysis of uncertainty in simulations of scenarios with RELAP/SCDAP V- 3.4 bi-7 and MELCOR V-2.1 codes, same that are used to perform safety analysis in the Comision Nacional de Seguridad Nuclear y Salvaguardias (CNSNS). The uncertainty analysis methodology chosen is a probabilistic method of type Propagation of uncertainty of the input parameters to the departure parameters. Therefore, it began with the selection of the input parameters considered uncertain and are considered of high importance in the scenario for its direct effect on the output interest variable. These parameters were randomly sampled according to intervals of variation or probability distribution functions assigned by expert judgment to generate a set of input files that were run through the simulation code to propagate the uncertainty to the output parameters. Then, through the use or ordered statistical and formula Wilks, was determined that the minimum number of executions required to obtain the uncertainty bands that include a population of 95% at a confidence level of 95% in the results is 93, is important to mention that in this method that number of executions does not depend on the number of selected input parameters. In the implementation routines in Fortran 90 that allowed automate the process to make the uncertainty analysis in transients for RELAP/SCDAP code were generated. In the case of MELCOR code for severe accident analysis, automation was carried out through complement Dakota Uncertainty incorporated into the Snap platform. To test the practical application of this methodology, two analyzes were performed: the first with the simulation of closing transient of the main steam isolation valves using the RELAP/SCDAP code obtaining the uncertainty band of the dome pressure of the vessel; while in the second analysis, the accident simulation of the power total loss (Sbo) was carried out with the Macarol code obtaining the uncertainty band for the

  2. A scenario tree-based decomposition for solving multistage stochastic programs. With application in energy production

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mahlke, Debora

    2011-07-01

    This thesis is concerned with the development and implementation of an optimization method for the solution of multistage stochastic mixed-integer programs arising in energy production. Motivated by the strong increase in electricity produced from wind energy, we investigate the question of how energy storages may contribute to integrate the strongly fluctuating wind power into the electric power network. In order to study the economics of energy storages, we consider a power generation system which consists of conventional power plants, different types of energy storages, and an offshore wind park which supplies a region of certain dimension with electrical energy. On this basis, we aim at optimizing the commitment of the facilities over several days minimizing the overall costs. We formulate the problem as a mixed-integer optimization program concentrating on the combinatorial and stochastic aspects. The nonlinearities arising from partial load efficiencies of the units are approximated by piece-wise linear functions. In order to account for the uncertainty regarding the fluctuations of the available wind power and of the prices for electricity purchased on the spot market, we describe the affected data via a scenario tree. Altogether, we obtain a stochastic multistage mixed-integer problem (SMIP) of high complexity whose solution is algorithmically and computationally challenging. The main focus of this thesis is on the development of a scenario tree-based decomposition approach combined with a branch-and-bound method (SD-BB) for solution of the SMIP described above. This novel method relies on the decomposition of the original formulation into several subproblems based on the splitting of the scenario tree into subtrees. Using a branch-and-bound framework which we extend by Lagrangian relaxation, we can solve the problem to global optimality. In order to support the solution process, we investigate the polyhedral substructure which results from the description

  3. Impacts of Mega-droughts on Water and Food Security in the Indo-Gangetic Plains: A Paleoclimate Scenario Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, T.; Pitois, G.; Ringler, C.; Wang, D.; Rosegrant, M. W.

    2014-12-01

    Spanning over Pakistan, northern India, Nepal, and Bangladesh, the Indo-Gangetic Plains (IGP) is the home of several hundred million people and the "bread basket" for much of South Asia. The flat terrain, fertile soils, and favorable climate of the IGP make it agriculturally productive. However prolonged droughts caused by consecutive monsoon failures can seriously affect crop production and social wellbeing, in particular for the eastern part of the plains where agriculture remains largely rain-fed. Severe droughts were observed in the IGP historically, and recent paleoclimate studies reveal that more severe and long-lasting "mega-droughts" had happened in the distant past. Agricultural losses from major droughts can dramatically affect food systems and increase the vulnerability of resource-poor people given the delicate balance between food supply and demand under growing natural resource scarcity. To estimate the potential impacts of "mega-droughts" on the water and food systems in the IGP, we develop worst-case drought scenarios through inverse modeling of tree-ring-based PDSI reconstruction that covers the period 1300-1899 (A.D.), and analyze these historic mega-drought scenarios using IFPRI's IMPACT global water and food projections model. The base year of the IMPACT model is parameterized using socioeconomic and engineering data that reflect today's water management and infrastructure, agricultural technologies, population, income, and market institutions. The base year simulation is validated against observations to ensure model fidelity. Anticipated changes of the above factors in the future out to 2050 are specified using demographic and economic growth projections and literature data. Model simulation results represent the consequences of mega-droughts in the IGP given technological and socioeconomic conditions of today and in the future. We also explore policy options for increasing the resilience of water and food systems in the IGP, through scenario

  4. Emergence of the First Catalytic Oligonucleotides in a Formamide-Based Origin Scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Šponer, Judit E; Šponer, Jiří; Nováková, Olga; Brabec, Viktor; Šedo, Ondrej; Zdráhal, Zbyněk; Costanzo, Giovanna; Pino, Samanta; Saladino, Raffaele; Di Mauro, Ernesto

    2016-03-01

    50 years after the historical Miller-Urey experiment, the formamide-based scenario is perhaps the most powerful concurrent hypothesis for the origin of life on our planet besides the traditional HCN-based concept. The information accumulated during the last 15 years in this topic is astonishingly growing and nowadays the formamide-based model represents one of the most complete and coherent pathways leading from simple prebiotic precursors up to the first catalytically active RNA molecules. In this work, we overview the major events of this long pathway that have emerged from recent experimental and theoretical studies, mainly concentrating on the mechanistic, methodological, and structural aspects of this research.

  5. Multi-Purpose Avionic Architecture for Vision Based Navigation Systems for EDL and Surface Mobility Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tramutola, A.; Paltro, D.; Cabalo Perucha, M. P.; Paar, G.; Steiner, J.; Barrio, A. M.

    2015-09-01

    Vision Based Navigation (VBNAV) has been identified as a valid technology to support space exploration because it can improve autonomy and safety of space missions. Several mission scenarios can benefit from the VBNAV: Rendezvous & Docking, Fly-Bys, Interplanetary cruise, Entry Descent and Landing (EDL) and Planetary Surface exploration. For some of them VBNAV can improve the accuracy in state estimation as additional relative navigation sensor or as absolute navigation sensor. For some others, like surface mobility and terrain exploration for path identification and planning, VBNAV is mandatory. This paper presents the general avionic architecture of a Vision Based System as defined in the frame of the ESA R&T study “Multi-purpose Vision-based Navigation System Engineering Model - part 1 (VisNav-EM-1)” with special focus on the surface mobility application.

  6. COMPARISON AND ANALYSIS OF GREEDY FORWARDING USING BNGF METHOD IN DIFFERENT VEHICULAR TRAFFIC SCENARIOS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ram Shringar Raw

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available A Vehicular Ad hoc Network (VANET is a most popular application of Mobile Ad hoc Networks (MANETs. A lot of research work around the world is being conducted to design an efficient routing protocol for VANETs. In this paper, we examine the significance of Greedy Forwarding with Border Node based approach for VANETs. We propose a position based routing protocol to forward packet to the border nodes of the forwarding nodeas the next-hop node. This protocol is called Border Node based Greedy Forwarding (BNGF since it uses border nodes with greedy forwarding. We categorize BNGF as BNGF-H for highway and BNGF-C for city traffic scenario. We have simulated this protocol using NS-2 simulator and evaluated the performance in terms of end-to-end delay and packet delivery ratio. We have compared both the methods for highway and city traffic scenarios. The results clearly show that the end-toend delay for BNGF-C is significantly lower and packet delivery ratio is higher than BNGF-H.

  7. Ex-Vessel Steam Explosion Analysis of Central Melt Pour Scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    gained at 2 bar primary system overpressure and water sub-cooling of 50 degree C. The purpose of the work presented in the paper is to perform a detailed analysis of the central melt pour scenario at 2 bar primary system overpressure and water sub-cooling of 50 degree C, where the strongest steam explosion occurred. The steam explosion analysis will be performed with the computer code MC3D, which is build mainly for the simulation of the complex FCI phenomena. The MC3D is being developed by IRSN, France. The reasons for the obtained so high pressure loads during the steam explosion in the selected scenario will be highlighted and discussed in details.(author)

  8. Model based systems engineering (MBSE) applied to Radio Aurora Explorer (RAX) CubeSat mission operational scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spangelo, S. C.; Cutler, J.; Anderson, L.; Fosse, E.; Cheng, L.; Yntema, R.; Bajaj, M.; Delp, C.; Cole, B.; Soremekum, G.; Kaslow, D.

    Small satellites are more highly resource-constrained by mass, power, volume, delivery timelines, and financial cost relative to their larger counterparts. Small satellites are operationally challenging because subsystem functions are coupled and constrained by the limited available commodities (e.g. data, energy, and access times to ground resources). Furthermore, additional operational complexities arise because small satellite components are physically integrated, which may yield thermal or radio frequency interference. In this paper, we extend our initial Model Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) framework developed for a small satellite mission by demonstrating the ability to model different behaviors and scenarios. We integrate several simulation tools to execute SysML-based behavior models, including subsystem functions and internal states of the spacecraft. We demonstrate utility of this approach to drive the system analysis and design process. We demonstrate applicability of the simulation environment to capture realistic satellite operational scenarios, which include energy collection, the data acquisition, and downloading to ground stations. The integrated modeling environment enables users to extract feasibility, performance, and robustness metrics. This enables visualization of both the physical states (e.g. position, attitude) and functional states (e.g. operating points of various subsystems) of the satellite for representative mission scenarios. The modeling approach presented in this paper offers satellite designers and operators the opportunity to assess the feasibility of vehicle and network parameters, as well as the feasibility of operational schedules. This will enable future missions to benefit from using these models throughout the full design, test, and fly cycle. In particular, vehicle and network parameters and schedules can be verified prior to being implemented, during mission operations, and can also be updated in near real-time with oper

  9. Global sensitivity analysis of the BSM2 dynamic influent disturbance scenario generator

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Flores-Alsina, Xavier; Gernaey, Krist V.; Jeppsson, Ulf

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents the results of a global sensitivity analysis (GSA) of a phenomenological model that generates dynamic wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) influent disturbance scenarios. This influent model is part of the Benchmark Simulation Model (BSM) family and creates realistic dry....../wet weather files describing diurnal, weekend and seasonal variations through the combination of different generic model blocks, i.e. households, industry, rainfall and infiltration. The GSA is carried out by combining Monte Carlo simulations and standardized regression coefficients (SRC). Cluster analysis...... is then applied, classifying the influence of the model parameters into strong, medium and weak. The results show that the method is able to decompose the variance of the model predictions (R-2 > 0.9) satisfactorily, thus identifying the model parameters with strongest impact on several flow rate descriptors...

  10. River discharge and flood inundation over the Amazon based on IPCC AR5 scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paiva, Rodrigo; Sorribas, Mino; Jones, Charles; Carvalho, Leila; Melack, John; Bravo, Juan Martin; Beighley, Edward

    2015-04-01

    Climate change and related effects over the hydrologic regime of the Amazon River basin could have major impacts over human and ecological communities, including issues with transportation, flood vulnerability, fisheries and hydropower generation. We examined future changes in discharge and floodplain inundation within the Amazon River basin. We used the hydrological model MGB-IPH (Modelo de Grandes Bacias - Instituto de Pesquisas Hidráulicas) coupled with a 1D river hydrodynamic model simulating water storage over the floodplains. The model was forced using satellite based precipitation from the TRMM 3B42 dataset, and it had a good performance when validated against discharge and stage measurements as well as remotely sensed data, including radar altimetry-based water levels, gravity anomaly-based terrestrial water storage and flood inundation extent. Future scenarios of precipitation and other relevant climatic variables for the 2070 to 2100 time period were taken from five coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) from IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The climate models were chosen based on their ability to represent the main aspects of recent (1970 to 2000) Amazon climate. A quantile-quantile bias removal procedure was applied to climate model precipitation to mitigate unreliable predictions. The hydrologic model was then forced using past observed climate data altered by delta change factors based on the past and future climate models aiming to estimate projected discharge and floodplain inundation in climate change scenario at several control points in the basin. The climate projections present large uncertainty, especially the precipitation rate, and predictions using different climate models do not agree on the sign of changes on total Amazon flood extent or discharge along the main stem of the Amazon River. However, analyses of results at different regions indicate an increase

  11. Systems Analysis, Scenario Construction and Consequence Analysis Definition for SITE-94

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chapman, N.A.; Robinson, P. [Intera Information Technologies Ltd (United Kingdom); Andersson, Johan; Wingefors, S. [Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate, Stockholm (Sweden); Skagius, K.; Wiborgh, M. [Kemakta Konsult AB, Stockholm (Sweden); Wene, C.O. [Chalmers Inst. of Technology, Goeteborg (Sweden)

    1995-06-01

    SITE-94 is a performance assessment of a hypothetical repository at a real site. The main objective of the project is to determine how site specific data should be assimilated into the performance assessment process and to evaluate how uncertainties inherent in site characterization will influence performance assessment results. This report uses scenario definition work as a vehicle to introduce the systems approach to performance assessment which has been developed and tested in SITE-94 and which constitutes one of the main advances made during the project. The results of the application of the methodology are presented separately, in the SITE-94 Summary Report. 40 refs, 21 figs, 12 tabs.

  12. Systems Analysis, Scenario Construction and Consequence Analysis Definition for SITE-94

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    SITE-94 is a performance assessment of a hypothetical repository at a real site. The main objective of the project is to determine how site specific data should be assimilated into the performance assessment process and to evaluate how uncertainties inherent in site characterization will influence performance assessment results. This report uses scenario definition work as a vehicle to introduce the systems approach to performance assessment which has been developed and tested in SITE-94 and which constitutes one of the main advances made during the project. The results of the application of the methodology are presented separately, in the SITE-94 Summary Report. 40 refs, 21 figs, 12 tabs

  13. Methodology To Define Drought Management Scenarios Based On Accumulated Future Projections Of Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haro-Monteagudo, David; Solera-Solera, Abel; Andreu-Álvarez, Joaquín

    2014-05-01

    Drought is a serious threat to many water resources systems in the world. Especially to those in which the equilibrium between resources availability and water uses is very fragile, making that deviation below normality compromises the capacity of the system to cope with all the demands and environmental requirements. Since droughts are not isolated events but instead they develop through time in what could be considered a creeping behavior, it is very difficult to determine when an episode starts and how long will it last. Because this is a major concern for water managers and society in general, scientific research has strived to develop indices that allow evaluating the risk of a drought event occurrence. These indices often have as basis previous and current state variables of the system that combined between them supply decision making responsible with an indication of the risk of being in a situation of drought, normally through the definition of a drought scenario situation. While this way of proceeding has found to be effective in many systems, there are cases in which indicators systems fail to define the appropriate on-going drought scenario early enough to start measures that allowed to minimize the possible impacts. This is the case, for example, of systems with high seasonal precipitation variability. The use of risk assessment models to evaluate future possible states of the system becomes handy in cases like the previous one, although they are not limited to such systems. We present a method to refine the drought scenario definition within a water resources system. To implement this methodology, we use a risk assessment model generalized to water resources systems based in the stochastic generation of multiple possible future streamflows generation and the simulation of the system from a Monte-Carlo approach. We do this assessment every month of the year up to the end of the hydrologic year that normally corresponds with the end of the irrigation

  14. Assessing nitrate leaching losses with simulation scenarios and model based fertiliser recommendations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michalczyk, A.; Kersebaum, K. C.; Hartmann, T.; Yue, S. C.; Chen, X. P.

    2012-04-01

    Excessive mineral nitrogen fertiliser application and irrigation in intensive agricultural cropping systems is seen as a major reason for low water and nitrogen use efficiencies in the North China Plain. High nitrogen fertiliser and irrigation water inputs do not only lead to higher production costs but also to decreasing ground water tables, nitrate accumulation in deeper soil layers below the root zone and water pollution. To evaluate the effects of improved management practices on environmental pollution risk, the HERMES model is used to simulate nitrate leaching losses. The HERMES model is a dynamic, process based crop model made for practical applications such as fertiliser recommendations. The model was tested and validated on two field studies in the south of the Hebei Province that lasted for about three years with a winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and summer maize (Zea mays L.) double cropping system. Biomass, grain yield, plant N uptake and soil water content were better simulated than mineral nitrogen in the soil. A model based nitrogen fertiliser recommendation was applied in the field for one wheat crop. The parallel model simulation showed satisfying results. Although there was no change in the amount of irrigation, the results indicated a possibility to reduce the fertiliser rate and thus nitrogen leaching even more than in the reduced treatment without reducing crop yields. Further more a simulation scenario with a model based fertiliser recommendation and a field capacity based irrigation was compared to farmers practice and reduced nitrogen treatment. The scenario results showed that the model recommendation together with the reduced irrigation has the highest potential to reduce nitrate leaching. The results also showed that flood irrigation as practiced by the farmers and its difficult to estimate amounts of water bears a big uncertainty for modelling.

  15. Low carbon scenarios for transport in India: Co-benefits analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dependence on oil for transport is a concern for India's policymakers on three counts – energy security, local environment and climate change. Rapid urbanisation and accompanying motorisation has created some of the most polluting cities in India and rising demand for oil is leading to higher imports, besides causing more CO2 emissions. The government of India wants to achieve the climate goals through a sustainability approach that simultaneously addresses other environment and developmental challenges. This paper analyses a sustainable low carbon transport (SLCT) scenario based on sustainable strategies for passenger and freight mobility, vehicle technologies and fuel using global CO2 prices that correspond to 2 °C global stabilisation target. The scenarios span from years 2010 to 2050 and are analysed using the energy system model-ANSWER MARKAL. The SLCT scenario has improved energy security (cumulative oil demand lower by 3100 Mtoe), improved air quality (PM 2.5 emissions never exceed the existing levels) and the cumulative CO2 emissions are lower by 13 billion t CO2 thereby showing that achieving development objectives with CO2 co-benefits is feasible. -- Highlights: •India's BAU transitions pose challenges for energy security and climate change. •Sustainable transport policies deliver benefits for air quality and energy security. •Sustainable transport policies fall short of mitigation needed for 2 °C stabilisation. •Transport sector becomes increasingly dependent on electricity. •Low carbon policies are essential to clean transport and electricity generation

  16. Scenario-based water resources planning for utilities in the Lake Victoria region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mehta, Vishal K.; Aslam, Omar; Dale, Larry; Miller, Norman; Purkey, David R.

    Urban areas in the Lake Victoria (LV) region are experiencing the highest growth rates in Africa. As efforts to meet increasing demand accelerate, integrated water resources management (IWRM) tools provide opportunities for utilities and other stakeholders to develop a planning framework comprehensive enough to include short term (e.g. landuse change), as well as longer term (e.g. climate change) scenarios. This paper presents IWRM models built using the Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) decision support system, for three towns in the LV region - Bukoba (Tanzania), Masaka (Uganda), and Kisii (Kenya). Each model was calibrated under current system performance based on site visits, utility reporting and interviews. Projected water supply, demand, revenues and costs were then evaluated against a combination of climate, demographic and infrastructure scenarios up to 2050. Our results show that water supply in all three towns is currently infrastructure limited; achieving existing design capacity could meet most projected demand until 2020s in Masaka beyond which new supply and conservation strategies would be needed. In Bukoba, reducing leakages would provide little performance improvement in the short-term, but doubling capacity would meet all demands until 2050. In Kisii, major infrastructure investment is urgently needed. In Masaka, streamflow simulations show that wetland sources could satisfy all demand until 2050, but at the cost of almost no water downstream of the intake. These models demonstrate the value of IWRM tools for developing water management plans that integrate hydroclimatology-driven supply to demand projections on a single platform.

  17. Multimedia Scenario Based Learning Programme for Enhancing the English Language Efficiency among Primary School Students

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Navnath Tupe

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available This research was undertaken with a view to assess the deficiencies in English language among Primary School Children and to develop Multimedia Scenario Based Learning Programme (MSBLP for mastery of English language which required special attention and effective treatment. The experimental study with pretest, post-test control group design was employed to carry out the experiment of MSBLP in a sample school and to determine its efficacy for enhancing English Language skills among Primary School Students. In India, the Central and State Government has made great efforts to Education for All (EFA and initiated several programs to provide universal access to education, to reduce the drop-out rates and ensure achievement of minimum levels of learning. To our surprise the scenario had not much changed inside the classroom even implementing several programmes. However, it was still unclear how effective was the delivery of the course content in the classroom. An intensive training for teachers on a regular basis on a state-wide scale may not be feasible again and again. Hence, multimedia offers pragmatic solutions So that this research paper devoted to explore the issues of learning English and describes the creation of MSBLP as a solution in scientific manner.

  18. Analysis of Reactor Deployment Scenarios with Introduction of SFR Breakeven Reactors and Burners Using DANESS Code

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Young In; Hahn, Do Hee; Won, Byung Chool; Lee, Dong Uk

    2008-01-15

    Using the DANESS code newly employed for future scenario analysis, reactor deployment scenarios with the introduction of sodium cooled fast reactors(SFRs) having different conversion ratios in the existing PWRs dominant nuclear fleet have been analyzed to find the SFR deployment strategy for replacing PWRs with the view of a spent fuel reduction and an efficient uranium utilization through its reuse in a closed nuclear fuel cycle. Descriptions of the DANESS code and how to use are briefly given from the viewpoint of its first application. The use of SFRs and recycling of TRUs by reusing PWR spent fuel leads to the substantial reduction of the amount of PWR spent fuel and environmental burden by decreasing radiotoxicity of high level waste, and a significant improvement on the natural uranium resources utilization. A continuous deployment of burners effectively decreases the amount of PWR spent fuel accumulation, thus lightening the burden for PWR spent fuel management. An introduction of breakeven reactors effectively reduces the uranium demand through producing excess TRU during the operation, thus contributing to a sustainable nuclear power development. With SFR introduction starting in 2040, PWRs will remain as a main power reactor type till 2100 and SFRs will be in support of waste minimization and fuel utilization.

  19. Techno-Economic Analysis of Biochemical Scenarios for Production of Cellulosic Ethanol

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kazi, F. K.; Fortman, J.; Anex, R.; Kothandaraman, G.; Hsu, D.; Aden, A.; Dutta, A.

    2010-06-01

    A techno-economic analysis on the production of cellulosic ethanol by fermentation was conducted to understand the viability of liquid biofuel production processes within the next 5-8 years. Initially, 35 technologies were reviewed, then a two-step down selection was performed to choose scenarios to be evaluated in a more detailed economic analysis. The lignocellulosic ethanol process was selected because it is well studied and portions of the process have been tested at pilot scales. Seven process variations were selected and examined in detail. Process designs were constrained to public data published in 2007 or earlier, without projecting for future process improvements. Economic analysis was performed for an 'nth plant' (mature technology) to obtain total investment and product value (PV). Sensitivity analysis was performed on PV to assess the impact of variations in process and economic parameters. Results show that the modeled dilute acid pretreatment process without any downstream process variation had the lowest PV of $3.40/gal of ethanol ($5.15/gallon of gasoline equivalent) in 2007 dollars. Sensitivity analysis shows that PV is most sensitive to feedstock and enzyme costs.

  20. Analysis of LOCA Scenarios in the NIST Research Reactor Before and After Fuel Conversion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baek, J. S. [Brookhaven National Lab. (BNL), Upton, NY (United States); Cheng, L. Y. [Brookhaven National Lab. (BNL), Upton, NY (United States); Diamond, D. [Brookhaven National Lab. (BNL), Upton, NY (United States)

    2015-08-30

    An analysis has been done of hypothetical loss-of-coolant-accidents (LOCAs) in the research reactor (NBSR) at the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST). The purpose of the analysis is to determine if the peak clad temperature remains below the Safety Limit, which is the blister temperature for the fuel. The configuration of the NBSR considered in the analysis is that projected for the future when changes will be made so that shutdown pumps do not operate when a LOCA signal is detected. The analysis was done for the present core with high-enriched uranium (HEU) fuel and with the proposed low-enriched uranium (LEU) fuel that would be used when the NBSR is converted from one to the other. The analysis consists of two parts. The first examines how the water would drain from the primary system following a break and the possibility for the loss of coolant from within the fuel element flow channels. This work is performed using the TRACE system thermal-hydraulic code. The second looks at the fuel clad temperature as a function of time given that the water may have drained from many of the flow channels and the water in the vessel is in a quasi-equilibrium state. The temperature behavior is investigated using the three-dimensional heat conduction code HEATING7.3. The results in all scenarios considered for both HEU and LEU fuel show that the peak clad temperature remains below the blister temperature.

  1. Supporting Problem Solving with Case-Stories Learning Scenario and Video-based Collaborative Learning Technology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chun Hu

    2004-04-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we suggest that case-based resources, which are used for assisting cognition during problem solving, can be structured around the work of narratives in social cultural psychology. Theories and other research methods have proposed structures within narratives and stories which may be useful to the design of case-based resources. Moreover, embedded within cases are stories which are contextually rich, supporting the epistemological groundings of situated cognition. Therefore the purposes of this paper are to discuss possible frameworks of case-stories; derive design principles as to “what” constitutes a good case story or narrative; and suggest how technology can support story-based learning. We adopt video-based Computer-Supported Collaborative Learning (CSCL technology to support problem solving with case-stories learning scenarios. Our hypothesis in this paper is that well-designed case-based resources are able to aid in the cognitive processes undergirding problem solving and meaning making. We also suggest the use of an emerging video-based collaborative learning technology to support such an instructional strategy.

  2. Scenario Analysis of Peak Demand Savings for Commercial Buildings with Thermal Mass in California

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yin, Rongxin; Kiliccote, Sila; Piette, Mary Ann; Parrish, Kristen

    2010-05-14

    This paper reports on the potential impact of demand response (DR) strategies in commercial buildings in California based on the Demand Response Quick Assessment Tool (DRQAT), which uses EnergyPlus simulation prototypes for office and retail buildings. The study describes the potential impact of building size, thermal mass, climate, and DR strategies on demand savings in commercial buildings. Sensitivity analyses are performed to evaluate how these factors influence the demand shift and shed during the peak period. The whole-building peak demand of a commercial building with high thermal mass in a hot climate zone can be reduced by 30percent using an optimized demand response strategy. Results are summarized for various simulation scenarios designed to help owners and managers understand the potential savings for demand response deployment. Simulated demand savings under various scenarios were compared to field-measured data in numerous climate zones, allowing calibration of the prototype models. The simulation results are compared to the peak demand data from the Commercial End-Use Survey for commercial buildings in California. On the economic side, a set of electricity rates are used to evaluate the impact of the DR strategies on economic savings for different thermal mass and climate conditions. Our comparison of recent simulation to field test results provides an understanding of the DR potential in commercial buildings.

  3. System analysis with improved thermo-mechanical fuel rod models for modeling current and advanced LWR materials in accident scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porter, Ian Edward

    A nuclear reactor systems code has the ability to model the system response in an accident scenario based on known initial conditions at the onset of the transient. However, there has been a tendency for these codes to lack the detailed thermo-mechanical fuel rod response models needed for accurate prediction of fuel rod failure. This proposed work will couple today's most widely used steady-state (FRAPCON) and transient (FRAPTRAN) fuel rod models with a systems code TRACE for best-estimate modeling of system response in accident scenarios such as a loss of coolant accident (LOCA). In doing so, code modifications will be made to model gamma heating in LWRs during steady-state and accident conditions and to improve fuel rod thermal/mechanical analysis by allowing axial nodalization of burnup-dependent phenomena such as swelling, cladding creep and oxidation. With the ability to model both burnup-dependent parameters and transient fuel rod response, a fuel dispersal study will be conducted using a hypothetical accident scenario under both PWR and BWR conditions to determine the amount of fuel dispersed under varying conditions. Due to the fuel fragmentation size and internal rod pressure both being dependent on burnup, this analysis will be conducted at beginning, middle and end of cycle to examine the effects that cycle time can play on fuel rod failure and dispersal. Current fuel rod and system codes used by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) are compilations of legacy codes with only commonly used light water reactor materials, Uranium Dioxide (UO2), Mixed Oxide (U/PuO 2) and zirconium alloys. However, the events at Fukushima Daiichi and Three Mile Island accident have shown the need for exploration into advanced materials possessing improved accident tolerance. This work looks to further modify the NRC codes to include silicon carbide (SiC), an advanced cladding material proposed by current DOE funded research on accident tolerant fuels (ATF). Several

  4. Capacity Model and Constraints Analysis for Integrated Remote Wireless Sensor and Satellite Network in Emergency Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Zhang

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available This article investigates the capacity problem of an integrated remote wireless sensor and satellite network (IWSSN in emergency scenarios. We formulate a general model to evaluate the remote sensor and satellite network capacity. Compared to most existing works for ground networks, the proposed model is time varying and space oriented. To capture the characteristics of a practical network, we sift through major capacity-impacting constraints and analyze the influence of these constraints. Specifically, we combine the geometric satellite orbit model and satellite tool kit (STK engineering software to quantify the trends of the capacity constraints. Our objective in analyzing these trends is to provide insights and design guidelines for optimizing the integrated remote wireless sensor and satellite network schedules. Simulation results validate the theoretical analysis of capacity trends and show the optimization opportunities of the IWSSN.

  5. Climate influences on the cost-effectiveness of vector-based interventions against malaria in elimination scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parham, Paul E; Hughes, Dyfrig A

    2015-04-01

    Despite the dependence of mosquito population dynamics on environmental conditions, the associated impact of climate and climate change on present and future malaria remains an area of ongoing debate and uncertainty. Here, we develop a novel integration of mosquito, transmission and economic modelling to assess whether the cost-effectiveness of indoor residual spraying (IRS) and long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) against Plasmodium falciparum transmission by Anopheles gambiae s.s. mosquitoes depends on climatic conditions in low endemicity scenarios. We find that although temperature and rainfall affect the cost-effectiveness of IRS and/or LLIN scale-up, whether this is sufficient to influence policy depends on local endemicity, existing interventions, host immune response to infection and the emergence rate of insecticide resistance. For the scenarios considered, IRS is found to be more cost-effective than LLINs for the same level of scale-up, and both are more cost-effective at lower mean precipitation and higher variability in precipitation and temperature. We also find that the dependence of peak transmission on mean temperature translates into optimal temperatures for vector-based intervention cost-effectiveness. Further cost-effectiveness analysis that accounts for country-specific epidemiological and environmental heterogeneities is required to assess optimal intervention scale-up for elimination and better understand future transmission trends under climate change. PMID:25688017

  6. ABM and GIS-based multi-scenarios volcanic evacuation modelling of Merapi

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jumadi, Carver, Steve; Quincey, Duncan

    2016-05-01

    Conducting effective evacuation is one of the successful keys to deal with such crisis. Therefore, a plan that considers the probability of the spatial extent of the hazard occurrences is needed. Likewise, the evacuation plan in Merapi is already prepared before the eruption on 2010. However, the plan could not be performed because the eruption magnitude was bigger than it was predicted. In this condition, the extent of the hazardous area was increased larger than the prepared hazard model. Managing such unpredicted situation need adequate information that flexible and adaptable to the current situation. Therefore, we applied an Agent-based Model (ABM) and Geographic Information System (GIS) using multi-scenarios hazard model to support the evacuation management. The methodology and the case study in Merapi is provided.

  7. A web-based 3D visualisation and assessment system for urban precinct scenario modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trubka, Roman; Glackin, Stephen; Lade, Oliver; Pettit, Chris

    2016-07-01

    Recent years have seen an increasing number of spatial tools and technologies for enabling better decision-making in the urban environment. They have largely arisen because of the need for cities to be more efficiently planned to accommodate growing populations while mitigating urban sprawl, and also because of innovations in rendering data in 3D being well suited for visualising the urban built environment. In this paper we review a number of systems that are better known and more commonly used in the field of urban planning. We then introduce Envision Scenario Planner (ESP), a web-based 3D precinct geodesign, visualisation and assessment tool, developed using Agile and Co-design methods. We provide a comprehensive account of the tool, beginning with a discussion of its design and development process and concluding with an example use case and a discussion of the lessons learned in its development.

  8. Waste Isolation Safety Assessment Program scenario analysis methods for use in assessing the safety of the geologic isolation of nuclear waste

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The relative utility of the various safety analysis methods to scenario analysis for a repository system was evaluated by judging the degree to which certain criteria are satisfied by use of the method. Six safety analysis methods were reviewed in this report for possible use in scenario analysis of nuclear waste repositories: expert opinion, perspectives analysis, fault trees/event trees, Monte Carlo simulation, Markov chains, and classical systems analysis. Four criteria have been selected. The criteria suggest that the methods: (1) be quantitative and scientifically based; (2) model the potential disruptive events and processes, (3) model the system before and after failure (sufficiently detailed to provide for subsequent consequence analysis); and (4) be compatible with the level of available system knowledge and data. Expert opinion, fault trees/event trees, Monte Carlo simulation and classical systems analysis were judged to have the greatest potential appliation to the problem of scenario analysis. The methods were found to be constrained by limited data and by knowledge of the processes governing the system. It was determined that no single method is clearly superior to others when measured against all the criteria. Therefore, to get the best understanding of system behavior, a combination of the methods is recommended. Monte Carlo simulation was judged to be the most suitable matrix in which to incorporate a combination of methods

  9. Context-based handover of persons in crowd and riot scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Metzler, Jürgen

    2015-02-01

    In order to control riots in crowds, it is helpful to get ringleaders under control and pull them out of the crowd if one has become an offender. A great support to achieve these tasks is the capability of observing the crowd and ringleaders automatically by using cameras. It also allows a better conservation of evidence in riot control. A ringleader who has become an offender should be tracked across and recognized by several cameras, regardless of whether overlapping camera's fields of view exist or not. We propose a context-based approach for handover of persons between different camera fields of view. This approach can be applied for overlapping as well as for non-overlapping fields of view, so that a fast and accurate identification of individual persons in camera networks is feasible. Within the scope of this paper, the approach is applied to a handover of persons between single images without having any temporal information. It is particularly developed for semiautomatic video editing and a handover of persons between cameras in order to improve conservation of evidence. The approach has been developed on a dataset collected during a Crowd and Riot Control (CRC) training of the German armed forces. It consists of three different levels of escalation. First, the crowd started with a peaceful demonstration. Later, there were violent protests, and third, the riot escalated and offenders bumped into the chain of guards. One result of the work is a reliable context-based method for person re-identification between single images of different camera fields of view in crowd and riot scenarios. Furthermore, a qualitative assessment shows that the use of contextual information can support this task additionally. It can decrease the needed time for handover and the number of confusions which supports the conservation of evidence in crowd and riot scenarios.

  10. Identifying the potential CO2-efficiency for the Deutsche Post DHL delivery fleet based on vehicle technology scenarios

    OpenAIRE

    Propfe, Bernd; Schlaghecken, Georg; Jüchter, Achim; Schmid, Stephan

    2011-01-01

    In order to identify the CO2-reduction potential of the German delivery fleet of Deutsche Post DHL, this study analyzes 3 different fleet scenarios. Based on a newly developed driving cycle that matches the specific requirements of delivery trucks, fuel consumptions for 6 different types of powertrains have been simulated. Subsequently, 3 fleet scenarios up to 2020 have been calculated with VECTOR21. A comparison of potential CO2-reductions and corresponding costs for the entire delivery f...

  11. A change navigation-based, scenario planning process within a developing world context from an Afro-centric leadership perspective

    OpenAIRE

    Chris A. Geldenhuys; Theo H. Veldsman

    2011-01-01

    Orientation: In the hyper turbulent context faced currently by organisations, more flexible strategic planning approaches, such as scenario planning which take into account a more comprehensive range of possible futures for an organisation, will position organisations better than conventional forecast and estimates that depend only on a single, linearly extrapolated, strategic response.Research purpose: This study aimed to investigate how scenario-based planning (a strictly cognitive man...

  12. On Scenario-based Model-driven Configuration Management for Flexible Networking Experimentation Infrastructures

    OpenAIRE

    Galán Márquez, Fermín

    2010-01-01

    The goal of the present dissertation is to improve the current state of the art in configuration management in networking experimentation infrastructures (testbeds). In particular, our goal is to solve the scenario technology-dependency problem, so the same scenarios can be reused in different testbeds. In order to achieve this goal, three objectives have to be addressed. First, to develop a model-driven configuration management architecture that decouples scenario specifications from the...

  13. Intermediate steps towards the 2000-Watt society in Switzerland: an energy-economic scenario analysis[Dissertation 17314

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schulz, T. F

    2007-07-01

    In this dissertation by Thorsten Frank Schulz the intermediate steps necessary to realise the 2000-Watt Society in Switzerland are examined. An analysis of an energy-economic scenario shows that the 2000-Watt Society should be seen as a long-term goal. According to the author, the major changes required to allow the implementation of this project concern energy-transformation and energy-demand technologies. Electricity will, according to the author, play an important role in a service-oriented society in the future. In such a transformation even intermediate steps are associated with considerable expense. The aims of the 2000-Watt Society project are listed. Energy and CO{sub 2} balances for the domestic and transport sectors are presented and discussed. Complementary analyses are presented concerning fuel cells and wood-based fuel technologies. Finally, the implications of the 2000-Watt society and the effects of technological change are summarised and an outlook is presented.

  14. Effect of Problem Based Learning Scenario on Knowledge of Third Class Students About Childhood Poisoning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nazan Karaoğlu

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: It is stated that students cannot carry their knowledge on basic medical sciences that they gained with classical education to clinical classes and clinical practice and problem based learning (PBL can compensate this drawback. It was aimed to evaluate the effect of PBL scenario written on this topic on level of knowledge about childhood poisoning of third class students who completed the most of theoretical pharmacology education.Materials and Method: A questionnaire form prepared by researchers was applied to randomly chosen PBL groups without writing names and on the basis of voluntariness before and after a case of childhood poisoning which was applied as the second PBL scenario in the second midterm of 2009-2010 academic years. Numbers, percentages, chi-square and student’s t-test were used for evaluation of the questionnaire form comprised of demographic data, open-closed ended questions for measuring attitudes and level of knowledge against case of poisoning and statements as making a priority ranking.Results: In the study group, 89 students took part in pre-test and 96 students took part in post-test. In the answers to the list including the substances that are the most common causes of admission according to data of Refik Saydam National Poison Center (e.g. lotion, bath foam, cosmetics, water color and calamine lotions, the substances that the students stated to be toxic in pre-test were answered correctly in the post-test (p<0.05. Number of correct answers increased significantly for knowledge about commonly used drugs in clinical practice like anti-depressants, calcium canal blockers, oral antidiabetics that were marked as non-toxic by the students although they are toxic (p<0.05. While mean knowledge score for these 40 items was 17.52±5.82 in pre-test, it increased to 27.89±8.79 in post-test (p<0.001.Conclusion: Results of this study indicate that PBL scenario applied to the students who learned pharmacology

  15. The hydroclimatological response to global warming based on the dynamically downscaled climate change scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Im, Eun-Soon; Coppola, Erika; Giorgi, Felippo

    2010-05-01

    Given the discernable evidences of climate changes due to human activity, there is a growing demand for the reliable climate change scenario in response to future emission forcing. One of the most significant impacts of climate changes can be that on the hydrological process. Changes in the seasonality and increase in the low and high rainfall extremes can severely influence the water balance of river basin, with serious consequences for societies and ecosystems. In fact, recent studies have reported that East Asia including the Korean peninsula is regarded to be a highly vulnerability region under global warming, in particular for water resources. As an attempt accurately assess the impact of climate change over Korea, we performed a downscaling of the ECAHM5-MPI/OM global projection under the A1B emission scenario for the period 1971-2100 using the RegCM3 one-way double-nested system. Physically based long-term (130 years) fine-scale (20 km) climate information is appropriate for analyzing the detailed structure of the hydroclimatological response to climate change. Changes in temperature and precipitation are translated to the hydrological condition in a direct or indirect way. The change in precipitation shows a distinct seasonal variations and a complicated spatial pattern. While changes in total precipitation do not show any relevant trend, the change patterns in daily precipitation clearly show an enhancement of high intensity precipitation and a reduction of weak intensity precipitation. The increase of temperature enhances the evapotranspiration, and hence the actual water stress becomes more pronounced in the future climate. Precipitation, snow, and runoff changes show the relevant topographical modulation under global warming. This study clearly demonstrates the importance of a refined topography for improving the accuracy of the local climatology. Improved accuracy of regional climate projection could lead to an enhanced reliability of the

  16. The effectiveness of energy service demand reduction: A scenario analysis of global climate change mitigation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A reduction of energy service demand is a climate mitigation option, but its effectiveness has never been quantified. We quantify the effectiveness of energy service demand reduction in the building, transport, and industry sectors using the Asia-Pacific Integrated Assessment/Computable General Equilibrium (AIM/CGE) model for the period 2015–2050 under various scenarios. There were two major findings. First, a 25% energy service demand reduction in the building, transport, and basic material industry sectors would reduce the GDP loss induced by climate mitigation from 4.0% to 3.0% and from 1.2% to 0.7% in 2050 under the 450 ppm and 550 ppm CO2 equivalent concentration stabilization scenarios, respectively. Second, the effectiveness of a reduction in the building sector's energy service demand would be higher than those of the other sectors at the same rate of the energy service demand reduction. Furthermore, we also conducted a sensitivity analysis of different socioeconomic conditions, and the climate mitigation target was found to be a key determinant of the effectiveness of energy service demand reduction measures. Therefore, more certain climate mitigation targets would be useful for the decision makers who design energy service demand reduction measures. - Highlights: • The effectiveness of a reduction in energy service demand is quantified. • A 25% reduction in energy service demand would be equivalent to 1% of GDP in 2050. • Stringent mitigation increases the effectiveness of energy service demand reduction. • Effectiveness of a reduction in energy demand service is higher in the building sector

  17. Low carbon society scenario analysis of transport sector of an emerging economy—The AIM/Enduse modelling approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The transport sector of a country is the backbone driving the economy forward. Thailand’s land transport sector is modelled using the AIM/Enduse, which is a recursive dynamic optimization model, based on bottom-up modelling principle. The travel demand is divided into two major categories which are passenger travel and freight travel. The objective of this paper is to analyse the mitigation possible through low carbon society (LCS) measures and emission tax (ET). Two scenario clusters are devised along with the BAU case. The LCS scenario cluster has three designed scenarios which are LCS-L, LCS-M and LCS-H. The emission tax (ET) cluster has four scenarios, where the taxes of 50, 100, 200 and 500 USD/t-CO2 are implemented. Along with this the marginal abatement costs (MAC) of the counter-measures (CMs) and the co-benefits in terms of energy security, productivity and air pollutant mitigation are also assessed. Results show that LCS scenarios are possible of mitigating up to 1230 Mt-CO2 cumulatively, from 2010 to 2050. In terms of MACs, new vehicles play a pivotal role, along with hybrid vehicles. The Average Abatement Cost (AAC) assessment shows that the AAC of LCS-H scenario is in the order of 100 USD/t-CO2. All the LCS and ET scenarios show an enhancement in energy security and also a threefold increase in productivity. There is distinct mitigation in terms of air pollutants from the transport sector as well. -- Highlights: •Thailand transport sector has been modelled using AIM/Enduse model. •Potential cumulative mitigation of CO2 during 2010–2050 is approximately 30% when compared the BAU scenario. •Abatement cost curves show that various counter measures are practical in the transport sector. •Energy security is enhanced due to CO2 mitigation in the LCS scenario

  18. Genome-Wide Analysis of Yield in Europe: Allelic Effects Vary with Drought and Heat Scenarios1[OPEN

    Science.gov (United States)

    Millet, Emilie J.; Welcker, Claude; Kruijer, Willem; Negro, Sandra; Coupel-Ledru, Aude; Laborde, Jacques; Bauland, Cyril; Praud, Sebastien; Presterl, Thomas; Usadel, Björn; Charcosset, Alain; Van Eeuwijk, Fred; Tardieu, François

    2016-01-01

    Assessing the genetic variability of plant performance under heat and drought scenarios can contribute to reduce the negative effects of climate change. We propose here an approach that consisted of (1) clustering time courses of environmental variables simulated by a crop model in current (35 years × 55 sites) and future conditions into six scenarios of temperature and water deficit as experienced by maize (Zea mays L.) plants; (2) performing 29 field experiments in contrasting conditions across Europe with 244 maize hybrids; (3) assigning individual experiments to scenarios based on environmental conditions as measured in each field experiment; frequencies of temperature scenarios in our experiments corresponded to future heat scenarios (+5°C); (4) analyzing the genetic variation of plant performance for each environmental scenario. Forty-eight quantitative trait loci (QTLs) of yield were identified by association genetics using a multi-environment multi-locus model. Eight and twelve QTLs were associated to tolerances to heat and drought stresses because they were specific to hot and dry scenarios, respectively, with low or even negative allelic effects in favorable scenarios. Twenty-four QTLs improved yield in favorable conditions but showed nonsignificant effects under stress; they were therefore associated with higher sensitivity. Our approach showed a pattern of QTL effects expressed as functions of environmental variables and scenarios, allowing us to suggest hypotheses for mechanisms and candidate genes underlying each QTL. It can be used for assessing the performance of genotypes and the contribution of genomic regions under current and future stress situations and to accelerate breeding for drought-prone environments. PMID:27436830

  19. The role of animated pedagogical agents in scenario-based language e-learning: a case-study

    OpenAIRE

    Reategui, Eliseo; Polonia, Eunice; Roland, Letícia

    2007-01-01

    Scenario-based language e-learning (SBeL) is focused on contextual learning, since it uses authentic activities that can improve communication skills. This paper reports a case-study that proposes the use of animated pedagogical agents (APAs) in a Brazilian Portuguese web-based course built under a mix of task- and scenario-based approaches. Its main purpose is to discuss how APAs can be used to improve students' communicative skills, cultural awareness and level of interaction with course's ...

  20. Developing courses with HoloRena, a framework for scenario- and game based e-learning environments

    CERN Document Server

    Juracz, Laszlo

    2010-01-01

    However utilizing rich, interactive solutions can make learning more effective and attractive, scenario- and game-based educational resources on the web are not widely used. Creating these applications is a complex, expensive and challenging process. Development frameworks and authoring tools hardly support reusable components, teamwork and learning management system-independent courseware architecture. In this article we initiate the concept of a low-level, thick-client solution addressing these problems. With some example applications we try to demonstrate, how a framework, based on this concept can be useful for developing scenario- and game-based e-learning environments.

  1. Life cycle assessment of cell phones in Brazil based on two reverse logistics scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniela da Gama e Silva Volpe Moreira de Moraes

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available This article is a result of a cell phone collection obtained at the Center for Information Technology Renato Archer (CTI under the AMBIENTRONIC Program, an initiative that supports the Brazilian electronic sector in the development of technologies for sustainability. The objective of this article is to assess two reverse logistic scenarios of cell phones using the technique of life-cycle assessment (LCA. The first scenario reflects the current scenario in Brazil, where batteries are recycled in Brazil and the other parts of the phones are outsourced to Europe. The second scenario is a proposal of full treatment in Brazil. The results indicate that the second scenario has a lower potential impact with important reduction of acidification, photochemical oxidation, eutrophication and the use of non-renewable energy. Furthermore, fully implementing reverse logistics in Brazil will enable socioeconomic benefits from the sale of materials and the generation of employment and income.

  2. Modeling post-fire sediment yield based on two burn scenarios at the Sooke Lake Reservoir, BC, Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dobre, Mariana; Elliot, William J.; Brooks, Erin S.; Smith, Tim

    2016-04-01

    Wildfires can have major adverse effects on municipal water sources. Local governments need methods to evaluate fire risk and to develop mitigation procedures. The Sooke Lake Reservoir is the primary source of water for the city of Victoria, BC and the concern is that sediment delivered from upland burned areas could have a detrimental impact on the reservoir and the water supply. We conducted a sediment delivery modeling pilot study on a portion of the Sooke Lake Reservoir (specifically, the Trestle Creek Management Unit (TCMU)) to evaluate the potential impacts of wildfire on sediment delivery from hillslopes and sub-catchments. We used a process-based hydrologic and soil erosion model called Water Erosion Prediction Project geospatial interface, GeoWEPP, to predict the sediment delivery from specific return period design storms for two burn severity scenarios: real (low-intensity burn severity) and worst (high-intensity burn severity) case scenarios. The GeoWEPP model allows users to simulate streamflow and erosion from hillslope polygons within a watershed. The model requires information on the topographic, soil and vegetative characteristics for each hillslope and a weather file. WEPP default values and several assumptions were necessary to apply the model where data were missing. Based on a 10-m DEM we delineated 16 watersheds within the TCMU area. A long term 100-year daily climate file was generated for this analysis using the CLIGEN model based on the historical observations recorded at Concrete, WA in United States, and adjusted for observed monthly precipitation observed in the Sooke Basin. We ran 100-year simulations and calculated yearly and event-based return periods (for 2, 5, 10, 20, 25, and 50 years) for each of the 16 watersheds. Overall, WEPP simulations indicate that the storms that are most likely to produce the greatest runoff and sediment load in these coastal, maritime climates with relatively low rainfall intensities are likely to occur in

  3. Lunar base scenario cost estimates: Lunar base systems study task 6.1

    Science.gov (United States)

    1988-01-01

    The projected development and production costs of each of the Lunar Base's systems are described and unit costs are estimated for transporting the systems to the lunar surface and for setting up the system.

  4. Event-based knowledge elicitation of operating room management decision-making using scenarios adapted from information systems data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Epstein Richard H

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background No systematic process has previously been described for a needs assessment that identifies the operating room (OR management decisions made by the anesthesiologists and nurse managers at a facility that do not maximize the efficiency of use of OR time. We evaluated whether event-based knowledge elicitation can be used practically for rapid assessment of OR management decision-making at facilities, whether scenarios can be adapted automatically from information systems data, and the usefulness of the approach. Methods A process of event-based knowledge elicitation was developed to assess OR management decision-making that may reduce the efficiency of use of OR time. Hypothetical scenarios addressing every OR management decision influencing OR efficiency were created from published examples. Scenarios are adapted, so that cues about conditions are accurate and appropriate for each facility (e.g., if OR 1 is used as an example in a scenario, the listed procedure is a type of procedure performed at the facility in OR 1. Adaptation is performed automatically using the facility's OR information system or anesthesia information management system (AIMS data for most scenarios (43 of 45. Performing the needs assessment takes approximately 1 hour of local managers' time while they decide if their decisions are consistent with the described scenarios. A table of contents of the indexed scenarios is created automatically, providing a simple version of problem solving using case-based reasoning. For example, a new OR manager wanting to know the best way to decide whether to move a case can look in the chapter on "Moving Cases on the Day of Surgery" to find a scenario that describes the situation being encountered. Results Scenarios have been adapted and used at 22 hospitals. Few changes in decisions were needed to increase the efficiency of use of OR time. The few changes were heterogeneous among hospitals, showing the usefulness of

  5. Algal-based CO2 Sequestration Technology and Global Scenario of Carbon Credit Market: A Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shailendra Kumar Singh

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this paper is to provide an overview of the global and national scenario of Carbon credit. This paper will also discuss the advantages of the algae-based carbon capture technology in growing carbon credit market. Carbon Dioxide (CO2, the most important greenhouse gas produced by combustion of fuels, has become a cause of global panic as its concentration in the Earth’s atmosphere has been rising alarmingly. However, it is now turning into a product that helps people, countries, consultants, traders, corporations and even farmers earn billion of rupees. A carbon credit is a generic term for any tradable certificate or permit representing the right to emit one tone of CO2 or CO2 equivalent (CO2-e. Businesses can exchange, buy or sell carbon credits in the international markets at the prevailing market price. India and China are likely to emerge as biggest seller and Europe is going to be biggest buyers of carbon credits. Using algae for reduction the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere is known as algae-based carbon capture technology. This new technology has attracted companies that need inexpensive CO2 sequestration solutions. Algae farming emerge as the best CO2 sequestration technique in comparison with other methods.

  6. Comparative analysis of hourly and dynamic power balancing models for validating future energy scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pillai, Jayakrishnan R.; Heussen, Kai; Østergaard, Poul Alberg

    2011-01-01

    , the model is verified on the basis of the existing energy mix on Bornholm as an islanded energy system. Future energy scenarios for the year 2030 are analysed to study a feasible technology mix for a higher share of wind power. Finally, the results of the hourly simulations are compared to dynamic......Energy system analyses on the basis of fast and simple tools have proven particularly useful for interdisciplinary planning projects with frequent iterations and re-evaluation of alternative scenarios. As such, the tool “EnergyPLAN” is used for hourly balanced and spatially aggregate annual...... analyses of energy scenarios. For the relatively fast dynamics of electrical energy systems, additional requirements need to be formulated to justify the technical feasibility of the respective scenario. In this article, the comparison is made of energy scenarios for the Danish island of Bornholm. First...

  7. Life Cycle Analysis of the Production of FT-Fuels. 4 Different Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Blinge, M. [Chalmers University of Technology (Sweden); Rehnlund, B. [Atrax Energi AB (Sweden); Larsen, U.; Lundorf, P.; Ivarsson, A.; Schramm, J. [Technical University of Denmark (Denmark)

    2006-11-15

    This paper deals with aspects concerning the life cycle aspects regarding Fischer-Tropsch (FT) fuels. Four different scenarios are being analysed based on Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) figures. The results etc presented below emanates from a project undertaken by the International Energy Agency's (IEA) Implementing Agreement on Advanced Motor Fuels (IEA/AMF). The project has been carried out as an IEA/AMF annex, number XXXI, with financial support from the USA, Finland and Denmark. Some important results from the scenario studies based on the evaluated LCA data are: Production and use of GTL fuel has the potential of contributing about the same or slightly less greenhouse gas to the atmosphere than production and use of conventional diesel; Production and use of CTL emits more than twice as much greenhouse gases compared to traditional fuels; Production and use of BTL reduces the emissions of greenhouse gases by 60-90 %; To substitute 15 % of the EU 15 countries fuel consumption would an area of 310 000 km2 be cultivated with Salix. This corresponds to an area of the size of Poland. It would also require 122 FTplants of 1,6 GW; Theoretically, it is possible supply the worlds need for energy with biomass. However, planning the production, the localization of plants, building the infrastructure, this will take time and requires heavy long-term investments; The demand for Natural gas is increasing and there is no way for the US to meet an increased demand from supplying the vehicle fleet with F-T fuels from domestic reserves. With the political situation in the Middle East and in Venezuela, it doesn't seem likely that this solution will ease the US problems with reducing their oil dependences. The IEA/AMF project has also included emission tests on road vehicles fuelled by FT-Gasoline. These tests have been performed by The Technical University of Denmark and will be presented in another presentation at the ISAF XVI, 'Emissions from Road Vehicles Fuelled

  8. Economic and environmental evaluation of three goal-vision based scenarios for organic dairy farming in Denmark.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oudshoorn, F.W.; Sorensen, C.A.G.; Boer, de I.J.M.

    2011-01-01

    The objective of this study was to explore the sustainability of future organic dairy farming systems in Denmark, by evaluating the economic and environmental consequences of three scenarios at the farm level based on different visions of future sustainability leading to different farm-based goals.

  9. Energy and emissions benefits of renewable energy derived from municipal solid waste: Analysis of a low carbon scenario in Malaysia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Highlights: • Feasibility study on the energy and GHG emission reduction for WtE strategies for municipal solid waste (MSW) in Malaysia. • Greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions from WtE strategies analysed using IPCC guideline. • Scenario analysis by comparison of different WtE strategies. • Impact of moisture content of MSW towards energy potential and GHG emission reduction. - Abstract: Ineffective waste management that involves dumping of waste in landfills may degrade valuable land resources and emit methane gas (CH4), a more potent greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide (CO2). The incineration of waste also emits polluted chemicals such as dioxin and particle. Therefore, from a solid waste management perspective, both landfilling and incineration practices pose challenges to the development of a green and sustainable future. Waste-to-energy (WtE) has become a promising strategy catering to these issues because the utilisation of waste reduces the amount of landfilled waste (overcoming land resource issues) while increasing renewable energy production. The goal of this paper is to evaluate the energy and carbon reduction potential in Malaysia for various WtE strategies for municipal solid waste (MSW). The material properties of the MSW, its energy conversion potential and subsequent greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions are analysed based on the chemical compositions and biogenic carbon fractions of the waste. The GHG emission reduction potential is also calculated by considering fossil fuel displacement and CH4 avoidance from landfilling. In this paper, five different scenarios are analysed with results indicating a integration of landfill gas (LFG) recovery systems and waste incinerator as the major and minor WtE strategies shows the highest economical benefit with optimal GHG mitigation and energy potential. Sensitivity analysis on the effect of moisture content of MSW towards energy potential and GHG emissions are performed. These evaluations of WtE strategies

  10. Based on Scenario Analysis the Choice of the Layout of the Urban Space and Industrial Strategy——Taking Yibin City as an Example%基于情景分析的城市空间与产业战略布局选择——以宜宾市为例

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    卢毅; 李理; 赵勇; 吴颖

    2013-01-01

    In terms of the problem of the layout of the urban space and industrial strategy can not be solved by conventional prediction method, Scene analysis method can be used in tackling the problem, it can emphasize the core problem and the key factors, the most likely three scenario schemes can be constructed: polynuclear, monocyte, ribbon. To make the choice of Yibin city "multicore development" space strategy, analysis and evaluation are implemented. Based on the overall coordination considering of space and traffic factors, Yibin "three core triaxial twelve group" development mode and industrial strategy layout selection and development strategy can be formulated.%针对常规预测方法难于解决宜宾市当前形势下空间与产业战略布局的问题,应用情景分析方法,明确其关键影响因素和核心问题,构建出多核、单核、带状等三种最有可能出现的情景方案,进行分析评价,作出宜宾市“多核发展”空间战略布局选择.在协调统筹考虑空间、交通因素的基础上,制定出宜宾“三核心三轴十二组团”的模式与产业战略布局选择及其发展策略.

  11. Four Scenarios for Europe. Based on UNEP's third Global Environment Outlook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The third Global Environment Outlook (GEO-3) was published on the eve of the Johannesburg summit (autumn 2002). GEO-3 looked back thirty years and forward thirty years. A set of what-if scenarios was used to explore the ways our society can advance, including implications for environmental and social goals. Characteristically, GEO-3 examines in a relatively deep fashion how its global scenarios can be interpreted in the context of each of the world's regions. This brochure presents the pan-European elaboration of the four GEO-3 scenarios. It focusses on the scenarios proper and their impacts in environmental terms. The scenarios are: The Markets First scenario envisages a world in which market-driven developments converge on the currently prevailing values and expectations in industrialized countries; In a Policy First world, strong actions are undertaken by governments in an attempt to achieve specific social and environmental goals; The Security First scenario assumes a world full of large disparities, where inequality and conflict, brought about by socio-economic and environmental stresses, prevail: and Sustainability First pictures a world in which a new development paradigm emerges in response to the challenge of sustainability supported by new, more equitable values and institutions. The second section describes 'the pan-European tale of the four futures' in a predominantly qualitative manner. Section 3 presents a regionally differentiated examination of the environmental implications of the scenarios. Details on input material, assumptions and methodologies applied, and actual results, can be found in Chapter 4 of GEO-3 'Outlook 2002-32' and in the Technical Background Report on GEO-3 Scenario Work

  12. Automation of block assignment planning using a diagram-based scenario modeling method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hwang In Hyuck

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Most shipbuilding scheduling research so far has focused on the load level on the dock plan. This is be¬cause the dock is the least extendable resource in shipyards, and its overloading is difficult to resolve. However, once dock scheduling is completed, making a plan that makes the best use of the rest of the resources in the shipyard to minimize any additional cost is also important. Block assignment planning is one of the midterm planning tasks; it assigns a block to the facility (factory/shop or surface plate that will actually manufacture the block according to the block characteristics and current situation of the facility. It is one of the most heavily loaded midterm planning tasks and is carried out manu¬ally by experienced workers. In this study, a method of representing the block assignment rules using a diagram was su¬ggested through analysis of the existing manual process. A block allocation program was developed which automated the block assignment process according to the rules represented by the diagram. The planning scenario was validated through a case study that compared the manual assignment and two automated block assignment results.

  13. Selection of an appropriate wastewater treatment technology: a scenario-based multiple-attribute decision-making approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalbar, Pradip P; Karmakar, Subhankar; Asolekar, Shyam R

    2012-12-30

    Many technological alternatives for wastewater treatment are available, ranging from advanced technologies to conventional treatment options. It is difficult to select the most appropriate technology from among a set of available alternatives to treat wastewater at a particular location. Many factors, such as capital costs, operation and maintenance costs and land requirement, are involved in the decision-making process. Sustainability criteria must also be incorporated into the decision-making process such that appropriate technologies are selected for developing economies such as that of India. A scenario-based multiple-attribute decision-making (MADM) methodology has been developed and applied to the selection of wastewater treatment alternative. The four most commonly used wastewater treatment technologies for treatment of municipal wastewater in India are ranked for various scenarios. Six scenarios are developed that capture the regional and local societal priorities of urban, suburban and rural areas and translate them into the mathematical algorithm of the MADM methodology. The articulated scenarios depict the most commonly encountered decision-making situations in addressing technology selection for wastewater treatment in India. A widely used compensatory MADM technique, TOPSIS, has been selected to rank the alternatives. Seven criteria with twelve indicators are formulated to evaluate the alternatives. Different weight matrices are used for each scenario, depending on the priorities of the scenario. This study shows that it is difficult to select the most appropriate wastewater treatment alternative under the "no scenario" condition (equal weights given to each attribute), and the decision-making methodology presented in this paper effectively identifies the most appropriate wastewater treatment alternative for each of the scenarios.

  14. Projecting the environmental profile of Singapore's landfill activities: Comparisons of present and future scenarios based on LCA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khoo, Hsien H; Tan, Lester L Z; Tan, Reginald B H

    2012-05-01

    This article aims to generate the environmental profile of Singapore's Semakau landfill by comparing three different operational options associated with the life cycle stages of landfilling activities, against a 'business as usual' scenario. Before life cycle assessment or LCA is used to quantify the potential impacts from landfilling activities, an attempt to incorporate localized and empirical information into the amounts of ash and MSW sent to the landfill was made. A linear regression representation of the relationship between the mass of waste disposed and the mass of incineration ash generated was modeled from waste statistics between years 2004 and 2009. Next, the mass of individual MSW components was projected from 2010 to 2030. The LCA results highlighted that in a 'business as usual' scenario the normalized total impacts of global warming, acidification and human toxicity increased by about 2% annually from 2011 to 2030. By replacing the 8000-tonne barge with a 10000-tonne coastal bulk carrier or freighter (in scenario 2) a grand total reduction of 48% of both global warming potential and acidification can be realized by year 2030. Scenario 3 explored the importance of having a Waste Water Treatment Plant in place to reduce human toxicity levels - however, the overall long-term benefits were not as significant as scenario 2. It is shown in scenario 4 that the option of increased recycling championed over all other three scenarios in the long run, resulting in a total 58% reduction in year 2030 for the total normalized results. A separate comparison of scenarios 1-4 is also carried out for energy utilization and land use in terms of volume of waste occupied. Along with the predicted reductions in environmental burdens, an additional bonus is found in the expanded lifespan of Semakau landfill from year 2032 (base case) to year 2039. Model limitations and suggestions for improvements were also discussed. PMID:22257698

  15. MOSES - A modelling tool for the analysis of scenarios of the European electricity supply system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weitemeyer, S.; Feck, T.; Agert, C.

    2012-10-01

    Recent studies have shown that a transition of the current power supply system in Europe to a system almost entirely based on fluctuating Renewable Energy Sources (RES) by mid-century is possible. However, most of these scenarios require a significant amount of back-up power capacities to ensure the security of electricity supply. This would imply high additional investments and operating costs. Hence, alternative options should be investigated first. Here we present a first outlook of our simulation model MOSES which will be able to analyse different target states of the European electricity system in 2050. In this model long-term meteorological data series are used to optimise the capacity mix of RES in Europe. One of the main elements of our tool is a simplified electricity network. In addition, alternative options for reduction of additional back-up power like the expansion of the transmission grid, the use of demand-side management and/or the installation of over-capacities will be implemented. The results will be used to provide scientifically proven recommendations to policy makers for a reliable energy supply system in Europe based on Renewable Energy Sources.

  16. The net employment impact of energy transition in France: An input-output analysis of the 'negaWatt' scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    We study the impact on employment in France of the implementation of the energy transition scenario built by negaWatt (2011), which provides a massive development of energy savings (through measures of sufficiency and energy efficiency) and renewable energy between 2012 and 2050. Compared to 2010, this scenario results in a halving of CO2 emissions from energy sources in France in 2030 and a division by 16 in 2050, without capture and storage of CO2, without implementation of new nuclear power plant and closing existing plants after 40 years of operation at maximum. We calculate the effect on employment of the implementation of this scenario compared to a baseline scenario that extends recent developments and considers the policies already decided. The method used to calculate the effect on employment of each scenario is to calculate the cost of the main technical and organizational options used, to allocate these costs among the 118 branches of the French economy and multiply these costs by the employment content of each branch. The latter is estimated by input-output analysis, which enables the recording of jobs generated by the production of all inputs. One of two scenarios being more expensive than the other, one must take into account the negative effect on employment of funding such costs. For this, it is assumed that this additional cost is borne by households and that they decrease their consumption accordingly by the same amount. This avoids biasing the results in favour of the most expensive scenario. The implementation of negaWatt scenario leads to a positive effect on employment, on the order of 240 000 full-time equivalent jobs in 2020 and 630,000 in 2030. We study the sensitivity of results to assumptions on prices of imported energy, the evolution of labour productivity, the distribution of costs between households and governments, and finally the consumption-savings decision. The effect on employment is largely positive in all cases. (author)

  17. Tsunami hazard for the city of Catania, eastern Sicily, Italy, assessed by means of Worst-case Credible Tsunami Scenario Analysis (WCTSA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Tonini

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Eastern Sicily is one of the coastal areas most exposed to earthquakes and tsunamis in Italy. The city of Catania that developed between the eastern base of Etna volcano and the Ionian Sea is, together with the neighbour coastal belt, under the strong menace of tsunamis. This paper addresses the estimation of the tsunami hazard for the city of Catania by using the technique of the Worst-case Credible Tsunami Scenario Analysis (WCTSA and is focused on a target area including the Catania harbour and the beach called La Plaia where many human activities develop and many important structures are present. The aim of the work is to provide a detailed tsunami hazard analysis, firstly by building scenarios that are proposed on the basis of tectonic considerations and of the largest historical events that hit the city in the past, and then by combining all the information deriving from single scenarios into a unique aggregated scenario that can be viewed as the worst virtual scenario. Scenarios have been calculated by means of numerical simulations on computational grids of different resolutions, passing from 3 km on a regional scale to 40 m in the target area. La Plaia beach results to be the area most exposed to tsunami inundation, with inland penetration up to hundreds of meters. The harbour turns out to be more exposed to tsunami waves with low frequencies: in particular, it is found that the major contribution to the hazard in the harbour is due to a tsunami from a remote source, which propagates with much longer periods than tsunamis from local sources. This work has been performed in the framework of the EU-funded project SCHEMA.

  18. Scenario-based prediction of Li-ion batteries fire-induced toxicity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lecocq, Amandine; Eshetu, Gebrekidan Gebresilassie; Grugeon, Sylvie; Martin, Nelly; Laruelle, Stephane; Marlair, Guy

    2016-06-01

    The development of high energy Li-ion batteries with improved durability and increased safety mostly relies on the use of newly developed electrolytes. A detailed appraisal of fire-induced thermal and chemical threats on LiPF6- and LiFSI-based electrolytes by means of the so-called "fire propagation apparatus" had highlighted that the salt anion was responsible for the emission of a non negligible content of irritant gas as HF (PF6-) or HF and SO2 (FSI-). A more thorough comparative investigation of the toxicity threat in the case of larger-size 0.4 kWh Li-ion modules was thus undertaken. A modeling approach that consists in extrapolating the experimental data obtained from 1.3Ah LiFePO4/graphite pouch cells under fire conditions and in using the state-of-the-art fire safety international standards for the evaluation of fire toxicity was applied under two different real-scale simulating scenarios. The obtained results reveal that critical thresholds are highly dependent on the nature of the salt, LiPF6 or LiFSI, and on the cells state of charge. Hence, this approach can help define appropriate fire safety engineering measures for a given technology (different chemistry) or application (fully charged backup batteries or batteries subjected to deep discharge).

  19. Improvement of the PSA model using a best-estimate thermal-hydraulic analysis of LOCA scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This study was performed to propose both new success criterion and heading of the event tree by using best-estimate analysis of each LOCA scenario, aiming at the improvement of the PSA models. The MARS code was used for the thermal-hydraulic analysis of LOCA and the Ulchin units 3 and 4 were selected as a reference plant in this study. This study was performed to improve the PSA model of three LOCA scenarios by using best-estimate thermal-hydraulic analysis. The LOCA calculations with various configurations of the safety systems and break sizes were performed. Using the results, we proposed both new success criterion and heading of the small- and middle-break LOCA scenario. The small-break LOCA will be analyzed later in terms of operator actions to depressurize the RCS. The results of this analysis may contribute to improve the PSA model of LOCA. In the probabilistic safety analysis (PSA) of Korean Standard Nuclear Power Plant (KSNP), loss-of-coolant accidents (LOCA) are classified into three scenarios by the break size, such as large-, middle-, and small-break LOCA. The specific break sizes were adopted to identify the boundaries of the three groups in the previous PSA model and the success criteria has been conservatively applied to each state of safety system in the event tree

  20. Intermediate steps towards the 2000 W society in Switzerland: An energy-economic scenario analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schulz, Thorsten F.; Kypreos, Socrates [Energy Economics Group, Paul Scherrer Institute (PSI) CH-5232 Villigen (Switzerland); Barreto, Leonardo [Energy Economics Group, Paul Scherrer Institute (PSI) CH-5232 Villigen (Switzerland); Austrian Energy Agency, A-1060 Vienna (Austria); Wokaun, Alexander [General Energy, Paul Scherrer Institute (PSI) CH-5232 Villigen (Switzerland)

    2008-04-15

    In the future, sustainable development under the umbrella of the 2000 W society could be of major interest. Could the target of the 2000 W society, i.e. a primary energy per capita (PEC) consumption of 2000 W, be realized until 2050? Various combinations of PEC and CO{sub 2} targets are tested, and the additional costs to be paid by the society are estimated. The assessment is carried out with the Swiss MARKAL model, a bottom-up energy-system model projecting future technology investments for Switzerland. The analysis reveals that the 2000 W society should be seen as a long-term goal. For all contemplated scenarios, a PEC consumption of 3500 W per capita (w/cap) is feasible in the year 2050. However, strong PEC consumption targets can reduce CO{sub 2} emissions to an equivalent of 5% per decade at maximum. For stronger CO{sub 2} emission reduction goals, corresponding targets must be formulated explicitly. At an oil price of 75 US${sub 2000}/bbl in 2050, the additional (cumulative, discounted) costs to reach a 10% CO{sub 2} reduction per decade combined with a 3500 W per capita target amount to about 40 billion US${sub 2000}. On the contrary, to reach pure CO{sub 2} reduction targets is drastically cheaper, challenging the vision of the 2000 W society. (author)

  1. Supporting primary-level mathematics teachers’ collaboration in designing and using technology-based scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Misfeldt, Morten; Zacho, Lis

    2016-01-01

    GeoGebra and Google sites. Both teachers and pupils work with the concept of “game” as something they design, and furthermore, the pupils immerse themselves into the scenarios that the teachers create in a way similar to “playing a game.” We investigate teachers participation in collaborative...... that the notion of “game” can support collaborative scenario design is a viable way of introducing technology and open-ended projects to primary school teachers....

  2. Conceiving Scenario-Based IS Support for Knowledge Synthesis: The Organization Architect

    OpenAIRE

    Kam Hou VAT

    2005-01-01

    This paper examines the idea of creating information systems (IS) support for knowledge work through the elaboration of typical organizational scenarios. Specifically, our research is driven by a belief that the design issues of IS support must be situated in the context of social processes in which, in a specific organizational scenario, a particular group of people can conceptualize their knowledge work and hence the purposeful action they wish to undertake. This provides the basis for asce...

  3. Situated cognitive engineering : the requirements and design of directed scenario-based training

    OpenAIRE

    Peeters, M.; Bosch, K. van den; Meyer, J.J.C.; Neerincx, M. A.

    2011-01-01

    The development of adaptive virtual learning environments as an educative tool is promising. In this paper we use the situated cognitive engineering method to analyze the operational demands, theoretical foundations and technological opportunities for the design of a Director Agent (DA). A DA uses its knowledge about the virtual world, the trainee, the task domain, and the scenario to intervene in the course of events during the training scenario. The goal of these interventions is to achieve...

  4. Analysis of Spent Fuel Assembly Thermal Behaviors in Boil-off Accident Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Hye-Min; Chun, Tae-Hyun; Kim, Sun-Ki [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2014-10-15

    The spent fuel pool (SFP) accidents would occur due to many different postulated scenarios, for example a SBO (Station Black Out) at SFP storage or an attack from external factor. In this study, we focused on the SFP boil off accident and analyzed the thermal behaviors of spent fuels following this accident, using MELCOR 1.8.6. version. MELCOR, originally the severe accident code, has been developed to also be appropriate to the SFP accident. This paper provides the spent fuel heatup characteristics in terms of decay heat, water level and fuel arrangement. The SFP model is based on 17x17 PWR assembly designed by Westinghouse. Spent fuel coolability has been analyzed with single and 1x4 assembly MELCOR models in the case of boil-off accident. It was shown that the low powered spent fuel assembly could be more vulnerable in the partial loss of coolant inventory because of lack of steam cooling and more fuel being uncovered. In addition, it was found that minimum water level has to be maintained above half of assembly height so as not to experience fuel failure, which depends on decay heat power.

  5. Enhanced Adaptive Management: Integrating Decision Analysis, Scenario Analysis and Environmental Modeling for the Everglades

    OpenAIRE

    Convertino, Matteo; Christy M. Foran; Jeffrey M. Keisler; Scarlett, Lynn; LoSchiavo, Andy; Gregory A. Kiker; Linkov, Igor

    2013-01-01

    We propose to enhance existing adaptive management efforts with a decision-analytical approach that can guide the initial selection of robust restoration alternative plans and inform the need to adjust these alternatives in the course of action based on continuously acquired monitoring information and changing stakeholder values. We demonstrate an application of enhanced adaptive management for a wetland restoration case study inspired by the Florida Everglades restoration effort. We find tha...

  6. Systemic analysis of production scenarios for bioethanol produced from ligno-cellulosic biomass [abstract

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ghysel, F.

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Defining alternatives for non-renewable energy sources constitutes a priority to the development of our societies. One of these alternatives is biofuels production starting from energy crops, agricultural wastes, forest products or wastes. In this context, a "second generation" biofuels production, aiming at utilizing the whole plant, including ligno-cellulosic (hemicelluloses, cellulose, lignin fractions (Ogier et al., 1999 that are not used for human food, would allow the reduction of the drawbacks of bioethanol production (Schoeling, 2007. However, numerous technical, economical, ethical and environmental questions are still pending. One of the aims of the BioEtha2 project, directed by the Walloon Agricultural Research Centre, is to define the position of bioethanol produced from ligno-cellulosic biomass among the different renewable energy alternatives that could be developed in Wallonia towards 2020. With this aim, and in order to answer the numerous questions in this field, the project aims at using tools and methods coming from the concept of "forecasting scenarios" (Sebillotte, 2002; Slegten et al., 2007; For-learn, 2008. This concept, based on a contemporary reality, aims to explore different possible scenarios for the future development of alternative sources of energy production. The principle is to evaluate, explore, possible futures of the studied problematic, through the establishment of possible evolution trajectories. We contribute to this prospective through a systemic approach (Vanloqueren, 2007 that allows lightening the existing interactions within the system "ligno-cellulosic biomass chain" without isolating it from its environment. We explain and sketch the two contexts needed to identify primary stakes. The global context includes inter-dependant and auto-regulating fields such as society, politics, technology and economy. These four fields influence each part of the "chain" with specific tools. However, the interest and

  7. A Systematic Approach to Explorative Scenario Analysis in Emergy Assessment with Emphasis on Resilience

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kamp, Andreas; Østergård, Hanne

    2016-01-01

    Fossil energy depletion (specifically peak oil) and climate change are imagined to profoundly affect human civilisation. This motivates assessment of resilience, a concept associated with the ability to persist and maintain function. Explorative scenarios may be used to cast light on what......-site renewable inputs, (3) slowly renewable inputs, (4) direct labour and (5) indirect labour. We consider the existing EmA indicators of biophysical efficiency (the unit emergy value, UEV), the degree of dependence on free, renewable, natural flows of energy (%R) and the degree of dependence on local inputs...... systems that rely primarily on on-site renewable resources appear less sensitive to societal changes. The significance of labour inputs varies among scenarios, and a higher percentage of labour inputs leads to increasing UEV in a Green Tech scenario but lower UEV in more radical energy decent scenarios...

  8. Life-cycle analysis of the total Danish energy system. An assessment of the present Danish energy system and selected furture scenarios. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kuemmel, B.; Soerensen, B.

    1997-01-01

    The promise of life-cycle analysis (LCA) is to enable the incorporation of environmental and social impacts into decision-making processes. The challenge is to do it on the basis of the always incomplete and uncertain data available, in a way that is sufficiently transparent to avoid that the modeller introduces any particular bias into the decision process, by the way of selecting and treating the incomplete data. The life-cycle analysis of the currently existing system is to be seen as a reference, against which alternative solutions to the same problem is weighed. However, as it takes time to introduce new systems, the alternative scenarios are for a future situation, which is chosen as the middle of the 21st century. The reason for using a 30-50 year period is a reflection on the time needed for a smooth transition to an energy system based on sources different from the ones used today, with implied differences all the way through the conversion and end-use system. A scenario will only be selected if it has been identified and if there is social support for it, so construction of more exotic scenarios by the researcher would only be meaningful, if its advantages are so convincing that an interest can be created and the necessary social support be forthcoming. One may say that the energy scenarios based on renewable energy sources are in this category, as they were identified by a minority group (of scientists and other individuals) and successfully brought to the attention of the public debate during 1970ies. In any case it should be kept in mind, that no claim of having identified the optimum solution can be made after assessing a finite number of scenarios. (EG) 88 refs.

  9. Variability of tsunami inundation footprints considering stochastic scenarios based on a single rupture model: Application to the 2011 Tohoku earthquake

    KAUST Repository

    Goda, Katsuichiro

    2015-06-30

    The sensitivity and variability of spatial tsunami inundation footprints in coastal cities and towns due to a megathrust subduction earthquake in the Tohoku region of Japan are investigated by considering different fault geometry and slip distributions. Stochastic tsunami scenarios are generated based on the spectral analysis and synthesis method with regards to an inverted source model. To assess spatial inundation processes accurately, tsunami modeling is conducted using bathymetry and elevation data with 50 m grid resolutions. Using the developed methodology for assessing variability of tsunami hazard estimates, stochastic inundation depth maps can be generated for local coastal communities. These maps are important for improving disaster preparedness by understanding the consequences of different situations/conditions, and by communicating uncertainty associated with hazard predictions. The analysis indicates that the sensitivity of inundation areas to the geometrical parameters (i.e., top-edge depth, strike, and dip) depends on the tsunami source characteristics and the site location, and is therefore complex and highly nonlinear. The variability assessment of inundation footprints indicates significant influence of slip distributions. In particular, topographical features of the region, such as ria coast and near-shore plain, have major influence on the tsunami inundation footprints.

  10. Variability of tsunami inundation footprints considering stochastic scenarios based on a single rupture model: Application to the 2011 Tohoku earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goda, Katsuichiro; Yasuda, Tomohiro; Mori, Nobuhito; Mai, P. Martin

    2015-06-01

    The sensitivity and variability of spatial tsunami inundation footprints in coastal cities and towns due to a megathrust subduction earthquake in the Tohoku region of Japan are investigated by considering different fault geometry and slip distributions. Stochastic tsunami scenarios are generated based on the spectral analysis and synthesis method with regards to an inverted source model. To assess spatial inundation processes accurately, tsunami modeling is conducted using bathymetry and elevation data with 50 m grid resolutions. Using the developed methodology for assessing variability of tsunami hazard estimates, stochastic inundation depth maps can be generated for local coastal communities. These maps are important for improving disaster preparedness by understanding the consequences of different situations/conditions, and by communicating uncertainty associated with hazard predictions. The analysis indicates that the sensitivity of inundation areas to the geometrical parameters (i.e., top-edge depth, strike, and dip) depends on the tsunami source characteristics and the site location, and is therefore complex and highly nonlinear. The variability assessment of inundation footprints indicates significant influence of slip distributions. In particular, topographical features of the region, such as ria coast and near-shore plain, have major influence on the tsunami inundation footprints.

  11. Can scenario-planning support community-based natural resource management? Experiences from three countries in Latin America

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kerry A. Waylen

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Community-based natural resource management (CBNRM is a concept critical to managing social-ecological systems but whose implementation needs strengthening. Scenario planning is one approach that may offer benefits relevant to CBNRM but whose potential is not yet well understood. Therefore, we designed, trialed, and evaluated a scenario-planning method intended to support CBNRM in three cases, located in Colombia, Mexico, and Argentina. Implementing scenario planning was judged as worthwhile in all three cases, although aspects of it were challenging to facilitate. The benefits generated were relevant to strengthening CBNRM: encouraging the participation of local people and using their knowledge, enhanced consideration of and adaptation to future change, and supporting the development of systems thinking. Tracing exactly when and how these benefits arose was challenging, but two elements of the method seemed particularly useful. First, using a systematic approach to discuss how drivers of change may affect local social-ecological systems helped to foster systems thinking and identify connections between issues. Second, explicitly focusing on how to use and respond to scenarios helped identify specific practical activities, or "response options," that would support CBNRM despite the pressures of future change. Discussions about response options also highlighted the need for support by other actors, e.g., policy groups: this raised the question of when and how other actors and other sources of knowledge should be involved in scenario planning, so as to encourage their buy-in to actions identified by the process. We suggest that other CBNRM initiatives may benefit from adapting and applying scenario planning. However, these initiatives should be carefully monitored because further research is required to understand how and when scenario-planning methods may produce benefits, as well as their strengths and weaknesses versus other methods.

  12. Ethoprophos fate on soil-water interface and effects on non-target terrestrial and aquatic biota under Mediterranean crop-based scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leitão, Sara; Moreira-Santos, Matilde; Van den Brink, Paul J; Ribeiro, Rui; José Cerejeira, M; Sousa, José Paulo

    2014-05-01

    The present study aimed to assess the environmental fate of the insecticide and nematicide ethoprophos in the soil-water interface following the pesticide application in simulated maize and potato crops under Mediterranean agricultural conditions, particularly of irrigation. Focus was given to the soil-water transfer pathways (leaching and runoff), to the pesticide transport in soil between pesticide application (crop row) and non-application areas (between crop rows), as well as to toxic effects of the various matrices on terrestrial and aquatic biota. A semi-field methodology mimicking a "worst-case" ethoprophos application (twice the recommended dosage for maize and potato crops: 100% concentration v/v) in agricultural field situations was used, in order to mimic a possible misuse by the farmer under realistic conditions. A rainfall was simulated under a slope of 20° for both crop-based scenarios. Soil and water samples were collected for the analysis of pesticide residues. Ecotoxicity of soil and aquatic samples was assessed by performing lethal and sublethal bioassays with organisms from different trophic levels: the collembolan Folsomia candida, the earthworm Eisenia andrei and the cladoceran Daphnia magna. Although the majority of ethoprophos sorbed to the soil application area, pesticide concentrations were detected in all water matrices illustrating pesticide transfer pathways of water contamination between environmental compartments. Leaching to groundwater proved to be an important transfer pathway of ethoprophos under both crop-based scenarios, as it resulted in high pesticide concentration in leachates from Maize (130µgL(-1)) and Potato (630µgL(-1)) crop scenarios, respectively. Ethoprophos application at the Potato crop scenario caused more toxic effects on terrestrial and aquatic biota than at the Maize scenario at the recommended dosage and lower concentrations. In both crop-based scenarios, ethoprophos moved with the irrigation water flow to the

  13. Transient analysis of a hydrogen-desalination cogeneration nuclear power plant : accident scenarios within the hydrogen production plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The WHEN (Water-Hydrogen-Electricity Nuclear gas-cooled reactor) system is an integrated system based on a nuclear power plant coupled with desalination and hydrogen production. The WHEN system integrates the HELP (High-Economical Low-Pressure) IS (Iodine- Sulfur) cycle for hydrogen production and the CD (Capacitive Desalination) + MED (Multi Effect Distillation) Hybrid system for desalination on top of the HTGR (High-Temperature Gas-cooled Reactor), which generates electricity. The WHEN system can enhance energy utilization by as much as 70%, and it can be flexibly designed according to various user needs. When we operate this type of cogeneration nuclear power plant, the load balance of each system is critical for the continuous operation of the entire system. A set of transient scenarios was simulated using a system analysis code (the GAMMA code), which can take into account the flow path design of hydrogen production coupling, i.e., undercooling and overcooling transients that are initiated in the hydrogen production plant. From the results of a safety analysis, we confirmed that the undercooling and overcooling transients initiated in the IS cycle do not lead any serious safety problems on the WHEN system. (author)

  14. Analysis of Future Streamflow Regimes under Global Change Scenarios in Central Chile for Ecosystem Sustainability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henriquez Dole, L. E.; Gironas, J. A.; Vicuna, S.

    2015-12-01

    Given the critical role of the streamflow regime for ecosystem sustainability, modeling long term effects of climate change and land use change on streamflow is important to predict possible impacts in stream ecosystems. Because flow duration curves are largely used to characterize the streamflow regime and define indices of ecosystem health, they were used to represent and analyze in this study the stream regime in the Maipo River Basin in Central Chile. Water and Environmental Assessment and Planning (WEAP) model and the Plant Growth Model (PGM) were used to simulate water distribution, consumption in rural areas and stream flows on a weekly basis. Historical data (1990-2014), future land use scenarios (2030/2050) and climate change scenarios were included in the process. Historical data show a declining trend in flows mainly by unprecedented climatic conditions, increasing interest among users on future streamflow scenarios. In the future, under an expected decline in water availability coupled with changes in crop water demand, water users will be forced to adapt by changing water allocation rules. Such adaptation actions would in turns affect the streamflow regime. Future scenarios for streamflow regime show dramatic changes in water availability and temporal distribution. Annual weekly mean flows can reduce in 19% in the worst scenario and increase in 3.3% in the best of them, and variability in streamflow increases nearly 90% in all scenarios under evaluation. The occurrence of maximum and minimum monthly flows changes, as June instead of July becomes the driest month, and December instead of January becomes the month with maximum flows. Overall, results show that under future scenarios streamflow is affected and altered by water allocation rules to satisfy water demands, and thus decisions will need to consider the streamflow regime (and habitat) in order to be sustainable.

  15. Low carbon and clean energy scenarios for India: Analysis of targets approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Low carbon energy technologies are of increasing importance to India for reducing emissions and diversifying its energy supply mix. Using GCAM, an integrated assessment model, this paper analyzes a targets approach for pushing solar, wind, and nuclear technologies in the Indian electricity generation sector from 2005 to 2095. Targets for these technologies have been constructed on the basis of Indian government documents, policy announcements, and expert opinions. Different targets have been set for the reference scenario and the carbon price scenario. In the reference scenario, wind and nuclear technologies exceed respective targets in the long run without any subsidy push, while solar energy requires subsidy push throughout the century in order to meet its high targets. In the short run, nuclear energy also requires significant subsidy, including a much higher initial subsidy relative to solar power, which is a result of its higher targets. Under a carbon price scenario, the carbon price drives the penetration of these technologies. Still, subsidy is required — especially in the short run when the carbon price is low. We also found that pushing solar, wind, and nuclear technologies leads to a decrease in share of CCS under the carbon price scenario and biomass under both the reference and carbon price scenarios. This is because low carbon technologies compete among themselves and substitute each other, thereby enhancing the need for subsidy or carbon price, highlighting that proposed targets are not set at efficient levels. In light of contemporary debate on external costs of nuclear energy, we also assess the sensitivity of the results to nuclear technology cost. We find that higher cost significantly decreases the share of nuclear power under both the reference and carbon price scenarios.

  16. The role of energy efficiency in the development of the Iranian energy system energy scenario analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Supersberger, Nikolaus; Lechtenboehmer, Stefan (Wuppertal Inst. for Climate, Environment and Energy, Wuppertal (Germany)); Seifried, Dieter (Buero Oe-Quadrat, Freiburg (Germany)); Moshiri, Saeed (Dept. of Economics, Univ. of Manitoba (Canada))

    2009-07-01

    Iran is one of the largest oil producers and natural gas owners globally. However, it has to struggle with domestic energy shortages, economic losses through energy subsidisation and inefficient energy infrastructures. Furthermore, GHG and other energy related emissions are rapidly increasing and posing a growing threat to local environment as well as global climate. With current trends prevailing, Iran may even become a net energy importer over the next decades. Resource allocation is therefore a crucial challenge for Iran: domestic consumption stands versus exports of energy. The energy transformation sector clarifies Iran's dilemma: soaring electricity demand leads to blackouts, and power plant new builds are far from using most efficient technologies (e. g. CHP), therefore keeping energy intensive structures. But fossil fuels could be sold on international markets if spared by having more efficient energy infrastructures. As shown by the high energy intensity of its economy, Iran has large potentials for energy saving and efficiency. In order to highlight and better identify this potential the paper contrasts a high efficiency scenario in all sectors of energy transformation and consumption with a possible 'business as usual' development. Using a bottom-up approach, the analysis provides a sector-by-sector perspective on energy saving potentials. These can be utilised on the demand side especially in the transport sector (fuels) and in households (electricity for appliances, natural gas for heating). Electricity generation bears efficiency potentials as well. We conclude that Iran, but also the international community, would benefit on various levels from a more energy-efficient Iranian economy: Energy exports could increase, generating more foreign currency and reducing the pressures on international oil and gas prices; energy consumption would decrease, leading to lower needs for nuclear energy and for subsidies to Iranian people, as well as to

  17. Scenarios of a deregulated electricity industry. Analysis; Szenarien einer liberalisierten Stromversorgung. Analyse

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Foerster, G.

    2002-07-01

    Four scenarios have been established which represent the spectrum of probable developments in the Internal Market until 2010. The content-related postulations are described in two parts. In the first part, various fundamental settings are defined which apply to all four scenarios alike, whereas in the second part a set of influencing variables (descriptors) are defined which develop along dissimilar, distinctive lines and thus can be used for modelling within the four different scenarios. Applying a special scenario analysing method, the cross-impact method, those combinations of descriptors can be derived which lead to conclusive scenarios and consistent postulations. (orig./CB) [German] Es wurden vier Szenarien erarbeitet, die das Spektrum der wahrscheinlichen Entwicklungen im EU-Binnenmarkt bis zum Jahr 2010 repraesentieren. Die inhaltlichen Aussagen werden in zwei Teilen beschrieben. Der erste Teil beinhaltet eine Reihe von Rahmengroessen, die fuer alle vier Szenarien gleich sind. Der zweite Teil besteht aus einem Satz von Einflussgroessen (Deskriptoren) mit verschiedenen Auspraegungen, in denen sich die vier Szenarien unterscheiden. Mit Hilfe einer speziellen Szenariotechnik, der Cross-Impact-Methode, bestimmt man diejenigen Kombinationen der Deskriptorauspraegungen, die zu in sich schluessigen Szenarien ohne widerspruechliche Assagen fuehren. (orig./CB)

  18. Scenario Analysis for Programmatic Tuberculosis Control in Western Province, Papua New Guinea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trauer, James M; Denholm, Justin T; Waseem, Saba; Ragonnet, Romain; McBryde, Emma S

    2016-06-15

    Tuberculosis (TB) and multidrug-resistant TB (MDR-TB) are major health problems in Western Province, Papua New Guinea. While comprehensive expansion of TB control programs is desirable, logistical challenges are considerable, and there is substantial uncertainty regarding the true disease burden. We parameterized our previously described mathematical model of Mycobacterium tuberculosis dynamics in Western Province, following an epidemiologic assessment. Five hypothetical scenarios representing alternative programmatic approaches during the period from 2013 to 2023 were developed with local staff. Bayesian uncertainty analyses were undertaken to explicitly acknowledge the uncertainty around key epidemiologic parameters, and an economic evaluation was performed. With continuation of existing programmatic strategies, overall TB incidence remained stable at 555 cases per 100,000 population per year (95% simulation interval (SI): 420, 807), but the proportion of incident cases attributable to MDR-TB increased from 16% to 35%. Comprehensive, provincewide strengthening of existing programs reduced incidence to 353 cases per 100,000 population per year (95% SI: 246, 558), with 46% being cases of MDR-TB, while incorporating programmatic management of MDR-TB into these programs reduced incidence to 233 cases per 100,000 population per year (95% SI: 198, 269) with 14% MDR-TB. Most economic costs were due to hospitalization during the intensive treatment phase. Broad scale-up of TB control activities in Western Province with incorporation of programmatic management of MDR-TB is vital if control is to be achieved. Community-based treatment approaches are important to reduce the associated economic costs. PMID:27199387

  19. Scenario Analysis for Programmatic Tuberculosis Control in Western Province, Papua New Guinea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trauer, James M; Denholm, Justin T; Waseem, Saba; Ragonnet, Romain; McBryde, Emma S

    2016-06-15

    Tuberculosis (TB) and multidrug-resistant TB (MDR-TB) are major health problems in Western Province, Papua New Guinea. While comprehensive expansion of TB control programs is desirable, logistical challenges are considerable, and there is substantial uncertainty regarding the true disease burden. We parameterized our previously described mathematical model of Mycobacterium tuberculosis dynamics in Western Province, following an epidemiologic assessment. Five hypothetical scenarios representing alternative programmatic approaches during the period from 2013 to 2023 were developed with local staff. Bayesian uncertainty analyses were undertaken to explicitly acknowledge the uncertainty around key epidemiologic parameters, and an economic evaluation was performed. With continuation of existing programmatic strategies, overall TB incidence remained stable at 555 cases per 100,000 population per year (95% simulation interval (SI): 420, 807), but the proportion of incident cases attributable to MDR-TB increased from 16% to 35%. Comprehensive, provincewide strengthening of existing programs reduced incidence to 353 cases per 100,000 population per year (95% SI: 246, 558), with 46% being cases of MDR-TB, while incorporating programmatic management of MDR-TB into these programs reduced incidence to 233 cases per 100,000 population per year (95% SI: 198, 269) with 14% MDR-TB. Most economic costs were due to hospitalization during the intensive treatment phase. Broad scale-up of TB control activities in Western Province with incorporation of programmatic management of MDR-TB is vital if control is to be achieved. Community-based treatment approaches are important to reduce the associated economic costs.

  20. A change navigation-based, scenario planning process within a developing world context from an Afro-centric leadership perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chris A. Geldenhuys

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Orientation: In the hyper turbulent context faced currently by organisations, more flexible strategic planning approaches, such as scenario planning which take into account a more comprehensive range of possible futures for an organisation, will position organisations better than conventional forecast and estimates that depend only on a single, linearly extrapolated, strategic response.Research purpose: This study aimed to investigate how scenario-based planning (a strictly cognitive management tool can be combined with organisational change navigation (a practice addressing the emotionality of change and how this integrated process should be aligned with the prerequisites imposed by a developing country context and an Afro-centric leadership perspective in order to make the process more context relevant and aligned.Motivation for the study: The integration of organisational change navigation with conventional scenario based planning, as well as the incorporation of the perquisites of a developing countries and an Afro-centric leadership perspective, will give organisations a more robust, holistic strategic management tool that will add significantly more value within a rapidly, radically and unpredictably changing world.Research design, approach and method: The adopted research approach comprised a combination of the sourcing of the latest thinking in the literature (the ‘theory’ as well as the views of seasoned practitioners of scenario planning (the ‘practice’ through an iterative research process, moving between theory and practice, back to practice and finally returning to theory in order to arrive at a validated expanded and enhanced scenario-based planning process which is both theory and practice ‘proof’.Main findings: A management tool incorporating the change navigation and the unique features of developing countries and Afro-centric leadership was formulated and empirically validated. This management tool is referred to as

  1. Environmental assessment of amine-based carbon capture Scenario modelling with life cycle assessment (LCA)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brekke, Andreas; Askham, Cecilia; Modahl, Ingunn Saur; Vold, Bjoern Ivar; Johnsen, Fredrik Moltu

    2012-07-01

    This report contains a first attempt at introducing the environmental impacts associated with amines and derivatives in a life cycle assessment (LCA) of gas power production with carbon capture and comparing these with other environmental impacts associated with the production system. The report aims to identify data gaps and methodological challenges connected both to modelling toxicity of amines and derivatives and weighting of environmental impacts. A scenario based modelling exercise was performed on a theoretical gas power plant with carbon capture, where emission levels of nitrosamines were varied between zero (gas power without CCS) to a worst case level (outside the probable range of actual carbon capture facilities). Because of extensive research and development in the areas of solvents and emissions from carbon capture facilities in the latter years, data used in the exercise may be outdated and results should therefore not be taken at face value.The results from the exercise showed: According to UseTox, emissions of nitrosamines are less important than emissions of formaldehyde with regard to toxicity related to operation of (i.e. both inputs to and outputs from) a carbon capture facility. If characterisation factors for emissions of metals are included, these outweigh all other toxic emissions in the study. None of the most recent weighting methods in LCA include characterisation factors for nitrosamines, and these are therefore not part of the environmental ranking.These results shows that the EDecIDe project has an important role to play in developing LCA methodology useful for assessing the environmental performance of amine based carbon capture in particular and CCS in general. The EDecIDe project will examine the toxicity models used in LCA in more detail, specifically UseTox. The applicability of the LCA compartment models and site specificity issues for a Norwegian/Arctic situation will be explored. This applies to the environmental compartments

  2. Spatially explicit scenario analysis for hydrologic services in an urbanizing agricultural watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiu, J.; Booth, E.; Carpenter, S. R.; Turner, M.

    2013-12-01

    The sustainability of hydrologic services (benefits to people generated by terrestrial ecosystem effects on freshwater) is challenged by changes in climate and land use. Despite the importance of hydrologic services, few studies have investigated how the provision of ecosystem services related to freshwater quantity and quality may vary in magnitude and spatial pattern for alternative future trajectories. Such analyses may provide useful information for sustaining freshwater resources in the face of a complex and uncertain future. We analyzed the supply of multiple hydrologic services from 2010 to 2070 across a large urbanizing agricultural watershed in the Upper Midwest of the United States, and asked the following: (i) What are the potential trajectories for the supply of hydrologic services under contrasting but plausible future scenarios? (ii) Where on the landscape is the delivery of hydrologic services most vulnerable to future changes? The Nested Watershed scenario represents extreme climate change (warmer temperatures and more frequent extreme events) and a concerted response from institutions, whereas in the Investment in Innovation scenario, climate change is less severe and technological innovations play a major role. Despite more extreme climate in the Nested Watershed scenario, all hydrologic services (i.e., freshwater supply, surface water quality, flood regulation) were maintained or enhanced (~30%) compared to the 2010 baseline, by strict government interventions that prioritized freshwater resources. Despite less extreme climate in the Investment in Innovation scenario and advances in green technology, only surface water quality and flood regulation were maintained or increased (~80%); freshwater supply declined by 25%, indicating a potential future tradeoff between water quality and quantity. Spatially, the locations of greatest vulnerability (i.e., decline) differed by service and among scenarios. In the Nested Watershed scenario, although

  3. Maximum Loss Calculation using Scenario Analysis, Heavy Tails and Implied Volatility Patterns

    OpenAIRE

    Söderman, Ronnie

    2000-01-01

    The objective of this paper is to improve option risk monitoring by examining the information content of implied volatility and by introducing the calculation of a single-sum expected risk exposure similar to the Value-at-Risk. The figure is calculated in two steps. First, there is a need to estimate the value of a portfolio of options for a number of different market scenarios, while the second step is to summarize the information content of the estimated scenarios into a single-sum risk mea...

  4. Scenarios for groundwater flow and radionuclide migration of concern for the TVO-92 safety analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The project aims at formulating different scenarios relevant to performance assessment of radioactive waste repositories in a crystalline rock formation. The scenarios studied range from a repository located in virgin rock to more complex situations with the potential repository located in the rock but being intersected by fracture zones with different inclinations and strikes relative to the prevailing gradient. The project comprises a study of regional flow and migration systems, and also involves discussions on local scale phenomena such as release from the canisters to the near-field barrier, and phenomena related to the disturbed zone around the repository tunnels

  5. Supporting primary-level mathematics teachers’ collaboration in designing and using technology-based scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Misfeldt, Morten; Zacho, Lis

    2016-01-01

    In this article, we address how the design of educational scenarios can support teachers’ adoption of both technology and open-ended projects indorsing creativity and innovation. We do that by describing how groups of teachers develop digital learning environments supporting using a combination o...

  6. Google Earth based visualization of Dutch land use scenarios: beyond usability

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lammeren, van R.J.A.; Houtkamp, J.M.; Hilferink, M.; Bouwman, A.

    2009-01-01

    This contribution describes GESO, a tool to prepare a Google Earth visualization of the Dutch land use scenarios as created by the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency. This Google Earth (GE) for the Sustainable Outlook tool, named GESO aims to be an effective, easy and low cost way to study

  7. A prospective scenario of the French nuclear fleet growth based on sodium cooled fast reactor technology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Generation IV Sodium cooled Fast Reactors (SFR) deployment would allow to optimize the use of the various available resources (natural, reprocessed and depleted uranium, plutonium) thanks to breeding capacities featuring a valuable advantage with respect to the fuel cycle flexibility and fissile material management. The complete replacement of the 60 GWe French nuclear fleet by GEN IV SFRs in 2100 would require around 1000 tons of plutonium. An accurate simulation of this prospective scenario shows that the amount of plutonium issued from the French PWRs spent fuel reprocessing would not be enough. The lacking amount of plutonium could be produced with fertile blankets during the transient SFR deployment phase. A more ambitious research scenario, aimed at doubling the nuclear French fleet installed power in 2100, would require to use SFRs at their maximum breeding capacity. However, it is not possible to deploy more than about 100 GWe of SFRs in 2100, meaning that the fleet growth would have to be partially supported by GEN III PWRs. Using the scenario simulation code TIRELIRE-STRATEGIE, we have optimized the main scenario parameters: the capacities of the fuel cycle facilities, the proportion of PWRs necessary for supporting the growth phase, the kinetics of SFRs deployment compatible with the plutonium build-up, etc., while respecting industrial constraints such as a realistic cooling time before reprocessing, a fuel cycle plants utilization rate constant over several decades, etc.. We illustrate the impact of this French fleet growth scenario over the nuclear material fluxes in the fuel cycle plants, the uranium consumption, and the waste production. (author)

  8. Analysis of Phosphorus Flows through Minnesota's Twin Cities Urban Food-Shed: Three Scenarios for Improving Nutrient Efficiency

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peterson, H. M.; Baker, L. A.

    2012-12-01

    cropping system within the food-shed. P use efficiencies for these systems include: corn (1.14), hog (0.47), dairy (0.36), and beef (0.20). We will present three scenarios to illustrate how upstream and downstream changes alter the urban food-shed P balance. The first scenario examines upstream (food processing) waste management to identify nutrient recycling inefficiencies between agricultural and urban systems. The second scenario focuses on quantifying how altering consumer choices, such as converting to a more vegetable-based diet, shifts the P balance within the food-shed. The final scenario seeks to improve P use efficiency within the urban ecosystem to reduce downstream transfer. This research will contribute to the understanding of how human diets within a concentrated urban ecosystem impact an entire systems P balance. The potential for increasing P use efficiency and identifying barriers and opportunities to improve P use efficiency will be discussed.

  9. Usability Assessment of International Office Website of Diponegoro University With Scenario Based Usability Evaluation Method and Wammi Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ratna Purwaningsih

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Website development needs to pay attention to usability aspect which consist of four factors: efficiency, effectiveness, satisfactions and error rate. The website of International Office of Diponegoro University provides academic information for Indonesian students and foreign students. The website still has some problem, especially on searching certain information. This research aims to evaluate the design of the existing website and measures the usability. A well-designed website will help users to meet theirs needs and purposes. The methods used in this study are Scenario-Based End-User Evaluation and WAMMI (Website Analysis and Measurement Inventory. Users perform a number of task on the existing website and on the redesigned website and then provide feedback for each task they have done and fill a WAMMI questionnaire as a test of memorability. This questionnaire used to test users memory on access process of a page from the site. The results of the data processing of usability test show that redesigned website has better value than existing website on effectiveness, efficiency, memorability and error rate.

  10. Future trends in worldwide river nitrogen transport and related nitrous oxide emissions : a scenario analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kroeze, C.; Seitzinger, S.P.; Domingues, R.

    2001-01-01

    We analyze possible future trends in dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) export by world rivers and associated emissions of nitrous oxide (N2O). Our scenarios either assume that current trends continue or that nitrogen (N) inputs to aquatic systems are reduced as a result of changes in agriculture pr

  11. Large-scale scenario analysis in forest ecology and forest management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mohren, G.M.J.

    2003-01-01

    Large-scale scenario models have been developed to combine forest inventory data and forest growth models to explore impacts of changes in environmental conditions and consequences of changes in forest management, and to support decision-making and policy development. This article reviews some of th

  12. Interference analysis in a LTE-A HetNet scenario

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Monteiro, Nuno; Mihovska, Albena D.; Rodrigues, Antonio;

    2013-01-01

    The electromagnetic spectrum is a scarce resource that needs to be efficiently and effectively reused to allow the provider the necessary conditions to satisfy its customers increasing demands. It is vital that the reuse of the spectrum does not lead to high interference scenarios. The use of het...

  13. Scenario analysis for a intersectorial infrastructure management; Szenarioanalyse fuer intersektorales Infrastruktur-Management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dierich, Axel; Schoen, Susanne [inter 3 - Institut fuer Ressourcenmanagement, Berlin (Germany); Bartels, Marie; Hahne, Michael; Hempel, Leon [Technische Univ. Berlin (Germany). Zentrum Technik und Gesellschaft; Lieb, Renate

    2012-06-15

    Supply networks are coupled to each other in many ways. Within the project ''Simkas-3D'' scenarios for possible interferences of water infrastructures as well as energy infrastructures are developed. It is examined how these crisis events may continue across system boundaries.

  14. Strategies to reduce the environmental impact of an aluminium pressure die casting plant: A scenario analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Neto, B.; Kroeze, C.; Hordijk, L.; Costa, C.; Pulles, M.P.J.

    2009-01-01

    This study explores a model (MIKADO) to analyse scenarios for the reduction of the environmental impact of an aluminium die casting plant. Our model calculates the potential to reduce emissions, and the costs associated with implementation of reduction options. In an earlier paper [Neto, B., Kroeze,

  15. Spent Nuclear Fuel Management: Levelized Cost of Electricity Generation and Analysis of Various Production Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura Rodriguez-Penalonga

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available This article aims to analyze the results of an economic study carried out to compare the influence of nuclear production capacity in different countries. The analysis is based on LCOEs (levelized cost of electricity for three back-end strategies: open cycle, closed cycle and advanced closed cycle. The results show that costs are not a relevant criteria in order to select an energy policy for the spent nuclear fuel management.

  16. Municipal scale scenario: Analysis of an Italian seaside town with MarkAL-TIMES

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This work presents three 25-year energy scenarios developed with the TIMES model generator for Pesaro, a seaside municipality in central Italy. It evaluates the effectiveness of local-scale energy policies in three sectors: households, transport, and the public sector (PS). Since the local energy demand is affected by summer tourism, seasonal consumption by holiday homes was also studied. Three scenarios were hypothesized: Business as Usual (BAU), Exemplary Public Sector (EPS), and Exemplary Municipality (EM). The EPS scenario models the exemplary role that recent European directives attribute to the PS in setting energy efficiency and technology penetration targets for itself; the EM scenario extends these targets to the household sector. In particular, the study underscores the potential of micro-cogeneration technologies in achieving local environmental targets, even though their diffusion would involve an increase in local energy consumption due to internalization of the primary energy used to produce electricity, which would no longer be wholly imported from outside municipal boundaries. The study provides information to local decision-makers by estimating the cost of implementing a number of energy policies. Finally, the study discusses the adequacy of TIMES as a tool to analyse municipal-scale scenarios. - Highlights: ► The main sectors investigated are transportation, household, and public sector. ► To account of touristic season holyday homes are modelled separately. ► Energy efficiency and renewables can help to highly reduce local consumptions. ► Micro-chp increases local consumption internalizing electricity self-production. ► Provide an insight on the adequacy of the use of TIMES at municipal scale.

  17. Global river nutrient export: scenario analysis of past and future trends (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seitzinger, S.; Mayorga, E.; Bouwman, L.; Beusen, A.; Harrison, J.; Kroeze, C.; Dumont, E.

    2010-12-01

    Climate change is one of a number of human forcings that affect river export of nutrients from watersheds. Past trends (1970-2000) and four future (2030 and 2050) scenarios of N, P, C and Si sources and controlling factors in watersheds globally were analyzed using the NEWS model. Hydrology is an important factor controlling river export of nutrients. Changes in river nutrient export between 2000 and 2030 due to future changes in hydrology related to climate change were compared to changes due to a scenario that integrated changes in a range of social-economic factors. These included changes in food and energy production, nutrient management practices, and GDP, among other factors. The four future scenarios were developed using the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA) scenarios as a basis. The Global Orchestration scenario from the MA generally exhibited the largest human impacts on climate as well as social-economic development. At the global scale by 2030, climate change alone was projected to slightly decrease annual dissolved inorganic N export (0.2 Tg N), compared to a global increase of 3.5 Tg N using the integrated assessment approach. However, there was considerable regional variability. For example, climate accounted for much of the decrease in DIN export projected in parts of Europe and the eastern USA. In other regions such as China, climate accounted for only a small portion of the large increase in projected DIN export. Climate had a larger effect on dissolved organic N, P and C export than dissolved inorganic N and P. The effects of climate forcing on land-ocean interactions should be studied within the context of multiple human forcings.

  18. Application of Scenario Analysis and Multiagent Technique in Land-Use Planning: A Case Study on Sanjiang Wetlands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huan Yu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Land-use planning has triggered debates on social and environmental values, in which two key questions will be faced: one is how to see different planning simulation results instantaneously and apply the results back to interactively assist planning work; the other is how to ensure that the planning simulation result is scientific and accurate. To answer these questions, the objective of this paper is to analyze whether and how a bridge can be built between qualitative and quantitative approaches for land-use planning work and to find out a way to overcome the gap that exists between the ability to construct computer simulation models to aid integrated land-use plan making and the demand for them by planning professionals. The study presented a theoretical framework of land-use planning based on scenario analysis (SA method and multiagent system (MAS simulation integration and selected freshwater wetlands in the Sanjiang Plain of China as a case study area. Study results showed that MAS simulation technique emphasizing quantitative process effectively compensated for the SA method emphasizing qualitative process, which realized the organic combination of qualitative and quantitative land-use planning work, and then provided a new idea and method for the land-use planning and sustainable managements of land resources.

  19. Preparatory Work for a Scenario-Based Electricity Expansion Plan for North Korea after Hypothetical Reunification using WASP-IV

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    It is noteworthy that North Korean government itself has demanded other parties' cooperation in the field of power sector as the top priority to deal with North Korean own economic issues. In this light, the researcher consider that how to build power capacity in North Korean area after reunification needs to be studied with priority. A scenario-based approach is being adopted, and three scenarios are proposed: Scenario increasing capacity at 2.4% annual rate, Imitating South Korean electricity expansion history, and reaching 80% of South Korean Annual Peak Load in 35 years. In order to carry out the research, WASP-IV (Wien Automation System Planning-IV) code developed by IAEA is, with reasonable assumptions, being executed. Annual Peak Load prediction for each scenario, load duration curve, and existing power generating facilities in North Korea are presented herein. This research is being conducted as a preparatory work for the further study. IAEA's WASP-IV is adopted for a scenario-based electricity expansion plan for North Korea after hypothetical reunification between Koreas. Input data including Annual Peak Load, load duration curve, and existing facilities are built and presented. Additional future research includes inputting candidate plants data, cost data such as construction period, operation and maintenance costs, and fuel costs, as well as decommissioning of aged power plants in North Korea to complete WASP-IV execution. Assuming reunification, electricity expansion plan would need to integrate North and South Koreas demands and facilities. However, this research narrows down its scope to North Korean demand and facilities only. Such integrated simulation could be the topic for the later research. This work was supported by the 2014 Research Fund of the KINGS

  20. Stochastic Multi-Commodity Facility Location Based on a New Scenario Generation Technique

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahootchi, M.; Fattahi, M.; Khakbazan, E.

    2011-11-01

    This paper extends two models for stochastic multi-commodity facility location problem. The problem is formulated as two-stage stochastic programming. As a main point of this study, a new algorithm is applied to efficiently generate scenarios for uncertain correlated customers' demands. This algorithm uses Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) and a scenario reduction approach. The relation between customer satisfaction level and cost are considered in model I. The risk measure using Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) is embedded into the optimization model II. Here, the structure of the network contains three facility layers including plants, distribution centers, and retailers. The first stage decisions are the number, locations, and the capacity of distribution centers. In the second stage, the decisions are the amount of productions, the volume of transportation between plants and customers.

  1. Scenario-Based Evaluation of Perception of Picture Quality Failures in LCD Televisions

    OpenAIRE

    Keijzers, J.; Scholten, L.; Lu, Y; den Ouden, E.

    2009-01-01

    In innovative Consumer Electronics products, such as LCD televisions, consumers often perceive the product's malfunctioning differently than designers do. To support critical design decisions, it is therefore important to understand how consumers perceive potential product failures. This paper discusses the development of realistic failure scenarios related to the picture quality of an LCD television. The impact of television content as well as failure origin on the perception of ...

  2. Ground surface temperature scenarios in complex high-mountain topography based on regional climate model results

    OpenAIRE

    Salzmann, N.; Noetzli, J.; C. Hauck; Gruber, S.; M. Hoelzle; Haeberli, W.

    2007-01-01

    Climate change can have severe impacts on the high-mountain cryosphere, such as instabilities in rock walls induced by thawing permafrost. Relating climate change scenarios produced from global climate models (GCMs) and regional climate models (RCMs) to complex high-mountain environments is a challenging task. The qualitative and quantitative impact of changes in climatic conditions on local to microscale ground surface temperature (GST) and the ground thermal regime is not readily apparent. ...

  3. Scenario-based earthquake hazard and risk assessment for Baku (Azerbaijan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Babayev

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available A rapid growth of population, intensive civil and industrial building, land and water instabilities (e.g. landslides, significant underground water level fluctuations, and the lack of public awareness regarding seismic hazard contribute to the increase of vulnerability of Baku (the capital city of the Republic of Azerbaijan to earthquakes. In this study, we assess an earthquake risk in the city determined as a convolution of seismic hazard (in terms of the surface peak ground acceleration, PGA, vulnerability (due to building construction fragility, population features, the gross domestic product per capita, and landslide's occurrence, and exposure of infrastructure and critical facilities. The earthquake risk assessment provides useful information to identify the factors influencing the risk. A deterministic seismic hazard for Baku is analysed for four earthquake scenarios: near, far, local, and extreme events. The seismic hazard models demonstrate the level of ground shaking in the city: PGA high values are predicted in the southern coastal and north-eastern parts of the city and in some parts of the downtown. The PGA attains its maximal values for the local and extreme earthquake scenarios. We show that the quality of buildings and the probability of their damage, the distribution of urban population, exposure, and the pattern of peak ground acceleration contribute to the seismic risk, meanwhile the vulnerability factors play a more prominent role for all earthquake scenarios. Our results can allow elaborating strategic countermeasure plans for the earthquake risk mitigation in the Baku city.

  4. Accuracy of depolarization and delay spread predictions using advanced ray-based modeling in indoor scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mani Francesco

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract This article investigates the prediction accuracy of an advanced deterministic propagation model in terms of channel depolarization and frequency selectivity for indoor wireless propagation. In addition to specular reflection and diffraction, the developed ray tracing tool considers penetration through dielectric blocks and/or diffuse scattering mechanisms. The sensitivity and prediction accuracy analysis is based on two measurement campaigns carried out in a warehouse and an office building. It is shown that the implementation of diffuse scattering into RT significantly increases the accuracy of the cross-polar discrimination prediction, whereas the delay-spread prediction is only marginally improved.

  5. Tsunami hazard potential for the equatorial southwestern Pacific atolls of Tokelau from scenario-based simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orpin, Alan R.; Rickard, Graham J.; Gerring, Peter K.; Lamarche, Geoffroy

    2016-05-01

    Devastating tsunami over the last decade have significantly heightened awareness of the potential consequences and vulnerability of low-lying Pacific islands and coastal regions. Our appraisal of the potential tsunami hazard for the atolls of the Tokelau Islands is based on a tsunami source-propagation-inundation model using Gerris Flow Solver, adapted from the companion study by Lamarche et al. (2015) for the islands of Wallis and Futuna. We assess whether there is potential for tsunami flooding on any of the village islets from a selection of 14 earthquake-source experiments. These earthquake sources are primarily based on the largest Pacific earthquakes of Mw ≥ 8.1 since 1950 and other large credible sources of tsunami that may impact Tokelau. Earthquake-source location and moment magnitude are related to tsunami-wave amplitudes and tsunami flood depths simulated for each of the three atolls of Tokelau. This approach yields instructive results for a community advisory but is not intended to be fully deterministic. Rather, the underlying aim is to identify credible sources that present the greatest potential to trigger an emergency response. Results from our modelling show that wave fields are channelled by the bathymetry of the Pacific basin in such a way that the swathes of the highest waves sweep immediately northeast of the Tokelau Islands. Our limited simulations suggest that trans-Pacific tsunami from distant earthquake sources to the north of Tokelau pose the most significant inundation threat. In particular, our assumed worst-case scenario for the Kuril Trench generated maximum modelled-wave amplitudes in excess of 1 m, which may last a few hours and include several wave trains. Other sources can impact specific sectors of the atolls, particularly distant earthquakes from Chile and Peru, and regional earthquake sources to the south. Flooding is dependent on the wave orientation and direct alignment to the incoming tsunami. Our "worst-case" tsunami

  6. Risk-based damage potential and loss estimation of extreme flooding scenarios in the Austrian Federal Province of Tyrol

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Huttenlau

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Within the last decades serious flooding events occurred in many parts of Europe and especially in 2005 the Austrian Federal Province of Tyrol was serious affected. These events in general and particularly the 2005 event have sensitised decision makers and the public. Beside discussions pertaining to protection goals and lessons learnt, the issue concerning potential consequences of extreme and severe flooding events has been raised. Additionally to the general interest of the public, decision makers of the insurance industry, public authorities, and responsible politicians are especially confronted with the question of possible consequences of extreme events. Answers thereof are necessary for the implementation of preventive appropriate risk management strategies. Thereby, property and liability losses reflect a large proportion of the direct tangible losses. These are of great interest for the insurance sector and can be understood as main indicators to interpret the severity of potential events. The natural scientific-technical risk analysis concept provides a predefined and structured framework to analyse the quantities of affected elements at risk, their corresponding damage potentials, and the potential losses. Generally, this risk concept framework follows the process steps hazard analysis, exposition analysis, and consequence analysis. Additionally to the conventional hazard analysis, the potential amount of endangered elements and their corresponding damage potentials were analysed and, thereupon, concrete losses were estimated. These took the specific vulnerability of the various individual elements at risk into consideration. The present flood risk analysis estimates firstly the general exposures of the risk indicators in the study area and secondly analyses the specific exposures and consequences of five extreme event scenarios. In order to precisely identify, localize, and characterize the relevant risk indicators of buildings

  7. Food scenarios 2025

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sundbo, Jon

    2016-01-01

    This article presents the results of a future study of the food sector. Two scenarios have been developed using a combination of: 1) a summary of the relevant scientific knowledge, 2) systematic scenario writing, 3) an expert-based Delphi technique, and 4) an expert seminar assessment. The two...... scenarios present possible futures at global, national (Denmark) and regional (Zealand, Denmark) levels. The main scenario is called ‘Food for ordinary days and celebrations’ (a combination of ‘High-technological food production − The functional society’ and ‘High-gastronomic food − The experience society...

  8. Investigating 100% renewable energy supply at regional level using scenario analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Annicka Waenn

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Energy modelling work in Ireland to date has mainly taken place at a national level. A regional modelling approach is necessary however, for Ireland to reach the ambitious targets for renewable energy and emissions reduction. This paper explores the usefulness of the energy modelling tool EnergyPLAN in investigating the energy system of the South West Region of Ireland. This paper estimates a 10.5% current renewable energy share of energy use, with 40% renewable electricity. We build and assess a reference scenario and three renewable energy scenarios from a technological and resources perspective. The results show that sufficient resources are available for the South West Region energy system to become 100% renewable and quantifies the land-use implications. Moreover, EnergyPLAN can be a useful tool in exploring different technical solutions. However, thorough investigations of as many alternatives as possible, is necessary before major investments are made in a future energy system.

  9. Scenario Analysis of Nutrient Removal from Municipal Wastewater by Microalgal Biofilms

    OpenAIRE

    Wijffels, René H.; Nadine C. Boelee; Marcel Janssen; Hardy Temmink; Buisman, Cees J. N.

    2012-01-01

    Microalgae can be used for the treatment of municipal wastewater. The application of microalgal biofilms in wastewater treatment systems seems attractive, being able to remove nitrogen, phosphorus and COD from wastewater at a short hydraulic retention time. This study therefore investigates the area requirement, achieved effluent concentrations and biomass production of a hypothetical large-scale microalgal biofilm system treating municipal wastewater. Three scenarios were defined: using micr...

  10. A design methodology for scenario-analysis in urban freight modelling

    OpenAIRE

    Ambrosini, Christian; Gonzalez-Feliu, Jesus; Toilier, Florence

    2013-01-01

    International audience Urban goods movement modelling is a popular subject in urban logistics research. However, most models remain under-used because practitioners have difficulties to apply them to simulate urban policies and their impacts on transport flows, mainly when the assessed situations are different from the initial usage of the mode. This paper aims to answer to that issue by proposing a methodology of scenario construction and assessment using current models and tools. The met...

  11. Thermodynamic analysis of spent pyrochemical salts in the stored condition and in viable accident scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This study involves examining ''spent'' electrorefining (ER) salts in the form present after usage (as stored), and then after exposure to water in a proposed accident scenario. Additionally, the equilibrium composition of the salt after extended exposure to air was also calculated by computer modeling and those results are also presented herein. It should be noted that these salts are extremely similar to spent MSE salts from the Rocky Flats MSE campaigns using NaCl-KCl- MgCl2

  12. Robustness Analysis of Regional Water Supply Portfolios using Synthetic Inflow Scenarios with Variable Drought Frequency

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herman, J. D.; Zeff, H. B.; Lamontagne, J. R.; Reed, P. M.; Characklis, G. W.

    2015-12-01

    Robustness analyses of water supply systems have moved toward exploratory simulation to discover scenarios in which existing or planned policies may fail to meet stakeholder objectives. Such assessments rely heavily on the choice of plausible future scenarios, which, in the case of drought management, requires sampling or generating a broad ensemble of reservoir inflows which do not necessarily reflect the historical record. Here we adapt a widely used synthetic streamflow generation method to adjust the frequency of low-flow periods, which can be related to impactful historical events from the perspective of decision makers. Specifically, the modified generation procedure allows the user to specify parameters n, p such that events with observed weekly non-exceedance frequency p appear in the synthetic scenario with approximate frequency np (i.e., the pth percentile flow occurs n times more frequently). Additionally, the generator preserves the historical autocorrelation of streamflow and its seasonality, as well as approximate multi-site correlation. Using model simulations from recent work in multi-objective urban drought portfolio planning in North Carolina, a region whose water supply faces both climate and population pressures, we illustrate the decision-relevant consequences caused by raising the frequency of low flows associated with the 2007-2008 drought. This method explores system performance under extreme events of increasing frequency prior to reconciling these findings with climate model projections, and thus can be used to support bottom-up robustness methods in water systems planning.

  13. Analysis of Two Scenarios for the Early Optical Emission of the GRB Afterglows 990123 and 021211

    CERN Document Server

    Panaitescu, A

    2004-01-01

    The optical light-curves of GRB afterglows 990123 and 021211 exhibit a steep decay at 100--600 seconds after the burst, the decay becoming slower after about 10 minutes. We investigate two scenarios for the fast decaying early optical emission of these GRB afterglows. In the reverse-forward shock scenario, this emission arises in the reverse shock crossing the GRB ejecta, the mitigation of the light-curve decay occurring when the forward shock emission overtakes that from the reverse shock. Both a homogeneous and wind-like circumburst medium are considered. In the wind-bubble scenario, the steeply decaying, early optical emission arises from the forward shock interacting with a 1/r^2 bubble, with a negligible contribution from the reverse shock, the slower decay starting when the blast wave reaches the bubble termination shock and enters a homogeneous region of the circumburst medium. We determine the shock microphysical parameters, ejecta kinetic energy, and circumburst density which accommodate the radio an...

  14. Scenario analysis of China's emissions pathways in the 21st century for low carbon transition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    China's growing demand for energy - and its dependence on coal - has seen its carbon emissions increase more than 50% since 2000. Within the debate about mitigating global climate change, there is mounting pressure for emerging economies like China to take more responsibility for reducing their carbon emissions within a post-2012 international climate change policy framework. For China, this leads to fundamental questions about how feasible it is for the country to shift away from its recent carbon intensive pattern of growth. This paper presents some general results of scenarios that have been developed to investigate how China might continue to develop within a cumulative carbon emissions budget. The results show how changes in the key sectors of the Chinese economy could enable China to follow four different low carbon development pathways, each of which complies with a cumulative emissions constraint. Each scenario reflects different priorities for governmental decision making, infrastructure investments and social preferences. Having compared the key features of each scenario, the paper concludes with some implications for Chinese government policy.

  15. Scenario analysis of China's emissions pathways in the 21st century for low carbon transition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    China's growing demand for energy - and its dependence on coal - has seen its carbon emissions increase more than 50% since 2000. Within the debate about mitigating global climate change, there is mounting pressure for emerging economies like China to take more responsibility for reducing their carbon emissions within a post-2012 international climate change policy framework. For China, this leads to fundamental questions about how feasible it is for the country to shift away from its recent carbon intensive pattern of growth. This paper presents some general results of scenarios that have been developed to investigate how China might continue to develop within a cumulative carbon emissions budget. The results show how changes in the key sectors of the Chinese economy could enable China to follow four different low carbon development pathways, each of which complies with a cumulative emissions constraint. Each scenario reflects different priorities for governmental decision making, infrastructure investments and social preferences. Having compared the key features of each scenario, the paper concludes with some implications for Chinese government policy. (author)

  16. Event-based knowledge elicitation of operating room management decision-making using scenarios adapted from information systems data

    OpenAIRE

    Epstein Richard H; Wachtel Ruth E; Dexter Franklin

    2011-01-01

    Abstract Background No systematic process has previously been described for a needs assessment that identifies the operating room (OR) management decisions made by the anesthesiologists and nurse managers at a facility that do not maximize the efficiency of use of OR time. We evaluated whether event-based knowledge elicitation can be used practically for rapid assessment of OR management decision-making at facilities, whether scenarios can be adapted automatically from information systems dat...

  17. Scenarios for nature development

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Harms, W.B.

    1995-01-01

    A procedure in backcasting scenarios is presented. Two case-studies differing in scale illustrate the differences in ecological contribution to plan design and to plan evaluation. Scenarios for nature development are presented for both case-studies, based on ecological objectives and spatial strateg

  18. Metaphorical scenarios in business science discourse

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Baramee Kheovichai

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Metaphor has been shown to play an important role in business science discourse. Yet, previous corpus-based studies only investigated a pre-selected list of metaphoric expressions, potentially rendering the analysis incomplete. Furthermore, some studies which only focused on lexis did not analyse how the lexical items may construct business concepts in terms of scenarios. The purpose of this research is to investigate metaphor used to construct business concepts in business research articles. 42 business research articles published in 2009-2010 from five journals ranked in the top-ten according to the 2007 journal impact factors (Thompson Reuters, 2008 constitute the data of this study. Semantic annotation software USAS (Rayson, 2008 was used to assist in the retrieval of metaphoric expressions. Furthermore, manual analysis of concordances was done to find metaphorical expressions that had not been captured by the semantic tags. The analysis of these metaphoric expressions was based on Conceptual Metaphor Theory (Lakoff & Johnson, 1980 and Metaphor Scenario (Musolff, 2006. Data analysis indicates that metaphor constructs business concepts as scenarios which have participants performing actions to reach their goal according to the SOURCE-PATH-GOAL schema of the source domains. At the centre of these scenarios, the BOUNDED SPACE source domain serves as a conceptual space or a setting for each scenario. Other source domains, which are WAR, SPORT, GAME, JOURNEY, MACHINE, LIVING ORGANISM, BUILDING and PHYSICAL FORCES, project the scenarios onto the space, forming interconnected and coherent scenarios of business discourse

  19. Conceiving Scenario-Based IS Support for Knowledge Synthesis: The Organization Architect

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kam Hou VAT

    2005-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the idea of creating information systems (IS support for knowledge work through the elaboration of typical organizational scenarios. Specifically, our research is driven by a belief that the design issues of IS support must be situated in the context of social processes in which, in a specific organizational scenario, a particular group of people can conceptualize their knowledge work and hence the purposeful action they wish to undertake. This provides the basis for ascertaining what information support is needed by those who undertake that action, and how modern information technology can help to provide that support. Thereby, designing IS support for knowledge work requires attention to the purposeful action which the IS serves, and hence to the meanings which make those particular actions meaningful and relevant to particular groups of people in a particular situation. This is often facilitated by the provision of an important enquiry process constantly attended to, and integrated into organizational activities by which IS professionals could learn of the organization's continual adjustments to its changing world. Our discussion here brings forth the notion of the learning organization information systems (LOIS, through which each member of the organization is enabled to create his or her own knowledge space, which is subject to some level of description, and thus may be architected and integrated into an organization. Importantly, in order to develop the various LOIS support for knowledge work, we need the correspondent organization scenarios to contextualize the IS design. And we attribute this development philosophy to the essence of systems thinking in conceiving IS support. The paper concludes by reiterating the work of the organization architect, which entails understanding, analyzing, designing, and communicating the most relevant parts of the organization and how they fit together.

  20. Entry modes and the impact of mobile microfinance at the Base of the Pyramid: Scenarios of “My Village Phone” in Egypt

    OpenAIRE

    Mostafa, Mohamad

    2010-01-01

    The expansion of mobile telecoms in the Egyptian market has contributed to different development paradigms. The entry mode and the way telecoms follow to access the Base of the Pyramid market in Egypt identifies which paradigm will take place in the future. Using the case of “My Village Phone” we developed a scenario analysis to explore the linkages between the entry modes and development paradigms. We found that “Pro-poor”, “Para-poor”, “Per-poor”, “Per-poor exports” and “Networked” are expe...

  1. Economic Impacts of GHG Stabilization Scenarios and regional differentiation of targets based on burden sharing rules

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In the first part of this report an overview is given of the energy version of WorldScan, which is a dynamic multi-region, multi-sector applied general equilibrium model. The second part presents applications, concerning the medium term (Kyoto protocol) and the long run (stabilization scenarios). Finally, one of the appendices presents an overview of the WorldScan User Support System (WUSS), which we developed as part of this project. WUSS visualizes a database with WorldScan model simulations and includes the new IPCC-SRES baselines and post-SRES stabilization scenarios. The analyses presented in this report show that some countries will gain and some will lose from implementing the Kyoto Protocol (KP). However, the USA does not ratify the Protocol, and this will economically benefit the other OECD countries and burdens the former Soviet Union and the global environment. The KP will imply a cost to the Non-Annex B energy exporters such as the Middle East. But in globalizing worlds they may gain, because of lower trade barriers that encourage relocation of energy-intensive production from Annex B towards the Middle East. The phenomenon 'carbon leakage' undermines the effectiveness of the KP. In the long run, non-Annex B countries will have to reduce emissions to stabilize greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere. Global emission trading is the instrument that allows for allocations of emission permits to non-Annex B that compensate them for any losses without sacrificing economic efficiency. 42 refs

  2. Hybrid Map-Based Navigation Method for Unmanned Ground Vehicle in Urban Scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huiyan Chen

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available To reduce the data size of metric map and map matching computational cost in unmanned ground vehicle self-driving navigation in urban scenarios, a metric-topological hybrid map navigation system is proposed in this paper. According to the different positioning accuracy requirements, urban areas are divided into strong constraint (SC areas, such as roads with lanes, and loose constraint (LC areas, such as intersections and open areas. As direction of the self-driving vehicle is provided by traffic lanes and global waypoints in the road network, a simple topological map is fit for the navigation in the SC areas. While in the LC areas, the navigation of the self-driving vehicle mainly relies on the positioning information. Simultaneous localization and mapping technology is used to provide a detailed metric map in the LC areas, and a window constraint Markov localization algorithm is introduced to achieve accurate position using laser scanner. Furthermore, the real-time performance of the Markov algorithm is enhanced by using a constraint window to restrict the size of the state space. By registering the metric maps into the road network, a hybrid map of the urban scenario can be constructed. Real unmanned vehicle mapping and navigation tests demonstrated the capabilities of the proposed method.

  3. A methodology for scenario development based on understanding of long-term evolution of geological disposal systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    We have developed a 'hybrid' scenario development method by combining bottom-up and top-down approaches and applied for the case of geological disposal of high-level waste. This approach provides a top-down perspective, by introducing a concept of safety functions for different periods and 'storyboards', which depict repository evolution with time on a range of spatial scales, and a bottom-up perspective, by identifying relationship between processes related to radionuclide migration and safety functions based on feature, event and process (FEP) management. Based on a trial study, we have specified work descriptions for each step of the hybrid scenario development methodology and confirmed that the storyboard provides a baseline and holistic overview for the FEP management and a common platform to involve close interaction with experts in various disciplines to understand the crossover phenomenological processes. We also confirmed that there is no conflict between the top-down approach and the bottom-up approach and the hybrid scenario development work frame fulfils the specified requirements for traceability, comprehensiveness, ease of understanding, integration of multidisciplinary knowledge and applicability to a staged approach to siting. (author)

  4. Integrative Scenario Development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joerg A. Priess

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Scenarios are employed to address a large number of future environmental and socioeconomic challenges. We present a conceptual framework for the development of scenarios to integrate the objectives of different stakeholder groups. Based on the framework, land-use scenarios were developed to provide a common base for further research. At the same time, these scenarios assisted regional stakeholders to bring forward their concerns and arrive at a shared understanding of challenges between scientific and regional stakeholders, which allowed them to eventually support regional decision making. The focus on the integration of views and knowledge domains of different stakeholder groups, such as scientists and practitioners, required rigorous and repeated measures of quality control. The application of the integrative concept provided products for both stakeholder groups, and the process of scenario development facilitated cooperation and learning within both the scientist and practitioner groups as well as between the two groups.

  5. Techno-economic analysis of receiver replacement scenarios in a parabolic trough field

    Science.gov (United States)

    Röger, Marc; Lüpfert, Eckhard; Caron, Simon; Dieckmann, Simon

    2016-05-01

    The heat loss of an evacuated parabolic trough receiver of solar thermal power plants ranges typically between values below 150 and 200 W/m at 350°C. Defects, such as glass breakage by wind events and coating degradation, anti-reflection coating degradation or hydrogen accumulation in the annulus, decrease the annual electricity production. This study examines the effect of different receiver performance loss scenarios on the energetic and economic output of a modern 150-MWel-parabolic trough plant with 7.5-hours molten-salt storage, located in Ma'an, Jordan over the whole lifetime by modeling it in an extended version of the software greenius. Compared to the reference scenario, a wind event in year 5 (10, 15) causing glass envelope breakage and consequential degradation of the selective coating of 5.6% of the receivers reduces the electricity output by 5.1% (3.8%, 2.5%), the net present value is reduced by 36.5% (23.1%, 13.1%). The payback time of receiver replacement is only 0.7 years and hence this measure is recommended. The highest negative impact on performance and net present value of a project has the hydrogen accumulation scenario (50% of field affected) in event year 5 (10,15) reducing net electric output by 10.7% (8.1%, 5.4%) and the net present value by 77.0% (48.7%, 27.6%). Replacement of the receivers or even better an inexpensive repair solution is an energetically and economically sensible solution. The option of investing in premium receivers with Xe-capsule during the construction phase is a viable option if the surplus cost for premium receivers is lower than 10 to 20 percent.

  6. SCENARIOS SIMULATION OF COUPLING SYSTEM BETWEEN URBANIZATION AND ECO-ENVIRONMENT IN JIANGSU PROVINCE BASED ON SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODEL

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIU Yao-bin; LI Ren-dong; LI Chun-hua

    2005-01-01

    By means of ISM (Interpretative Structural Modeling) and SD (System Dynamics) methods, this paper made a system dynamics model of urbanization and eco-environment coupling in Jiangsu Province according to the implication and PSR (Pressure State Response) framework of urbanization and eeo-environment coupling. Moreover, five typical scenarios during 2000-2015 have been simulated and analyzed based on the time serial statistical data during 1990-2003 in Jiangsu, which indicates: firstly, there are significant differences between the results and the scenarios,and the five coupling models all have comparative advantages and drawbacks; secondly, in terms of the characteristics and regional development disparities of Jiangsu and the general rule of world urbanization process, this paper reveals that only when either population urbanization model or social urbanization model to be correspondingly adopted, the sustainable development among population, economy, urbanization and eeo-environment can be realized.

  7. Analysis of 38 GHz mmWave Propagation Characteristics of Urban Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rodriguez Larrad, Ignacio; Nguyen, Huan Cong; Sørensen, Troels Bundgaard;

    2015-01-01

    urban outdoor and outdoor-to-indoor propagation characteristics at 38 GHz. Different sets of measurements were performed in order to understand, quantify and model the behavior of the different underlying propagation mechanisms. The study considers line-of-sight propagation, reflection, scattering......, diffraction, transmission, as well as polarization effects. The measurement results confirm that, at this particular frequency, propagation in urban scenarios is mainly driven by line-of-sight and reflection. The proposed models are practical for implementation in system level simulators or ray-tracing tools...

  8. Performance Analysis of Relays in LTE for a Realistic Suburban Deployment Scenario

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Coletti, Claudio; Mogensen, Preben; Irmer, Ralf

    2011-01-01

    -effectiveness have been widely investigated in the literature, considering mainly statistical deployment scenarios, like regular networks with uniform traffic distribution. This paper is envisaged to illustrate the performances of different relay technologies (In-Band/Out-band) in a realistic suburban network......Relays are likely to play an important role in the deployment of Beyond 3G networks, such as LTE-Advanced, thanks to the possibility of effectively extending Macro network coverage and fulfilling the expected high data-rate requirements. Up until now, the relay technology potential and its cost...... of a lower frequency carrier at the Macro layer guarantee better network coverage and capacity improvements....

  9. Increasing Plant Based Foods or Dairy Foods Differentially Affects Nutrient Intakes: Dietary Scenarios Using NHANES 2007-2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cifelli, Christopher J; Houchins, Jenny A; Demmer, Elieke; Fulgoni, Victor L

    2016-07-11

    Diets rich in plant foods and lower in animal-based products have garnered increased attention among researchers, dietitians and health professionals in recent years for their potential to, not only improve health, but also to lessen the environmental impact. However, the potential effects of increasing plant-based foods at the expense of animal-based foods on macro- and micronutrient nutrient adequacy in the U.S. diet is unknown. In addition, dairy foods are consistently under consumed, thus the impact of increased dairy on nutrient adequacy is important to measure. Accordingly, the objective of this study was to use national survey data to model three different dietary scenarios to assess the effects of increasing plant-based foods or dairy foods on macronutrient intake and nutrient adequacy. Data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2007-2010 for persons two years and older (n = 17,387) were used in all the analyses. Comparisons were made of usual intake of macronutrients and shortfall nutrients of three dietary scenarios that increased intakes by 100%: (i) plant-based foods; (ii) protein-rich plant-based foods (i.e., legumes, nuts, seeds, soy); and (iii) milk, cheese and yogurt. Scenarios (i) and (ii) had commensurate reductions in animal product intake. In both children (2-18 years) and adults (≥19 years), the percent not meeting the Estimated Average Requirement (EAR) decreased for vitamin C, magnesium, vitamin E, folate and iron when plant-based foods were increased. However the percent not meeting the EAR increased for calcium, protein, vitamin A, and vitamin D in this scenario. Doubling protein-rich plant-based foods had no effect on nutrient intake because they were consumed in very low quantities in the baseline diet. The dairy model reduced the percent not meeting the EAR for calcium, vitamin A, vitamin D, magnesium, and protein, while sodium and saturated fat levels increased. Our modeling shows that increasing plant-based

  10. Increasing Plant Based Foods or Dairy Foods Differentially Affects Nutrient Intakes: Dietary Scenarios Using NHANES 2007-2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cifelli, Christopher J; Houchins, Jenny A; Demmer, Elieke; Fulgoni, Victor L

    2016-01-01

    Diets rich in plant foods and lower in animal-based products have garnered increased attention among researchers, dietitians and health professionals in recent years for their potential to, not only improve health, but also to lessen the environmental impact. However, the potential effects of increasing plant-based foods at the expense of animal-based foods on macro- and micronutrient nutrient adequacy in the U.S. diet is unknown. In addition, dairy foods are consistently under consumed, thus the impact of increased dairy on nutrient adequacy is important to measure. Accordingly, the objective of this study was to use national survey data to model three different dietary scenarios to assess the effects of increasing plant-based foods or dairy foods on macronutrient intake and nutrient adequacy. Data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2007-2010 for persons two years and older (n = 17,387) were used in all the analyses. Comparisons were made of usual intake of macronutrients and shortfall nutrients of three dietary scenarios that increased intakes by 100%: (i) plant-based foods; (ii) protein-rich plant-based foods (i.e., legumes, nuts, seeds, soy); and (iii) milk, cheese and yogurt. Scenarios (i) and (ii) had commensurate reductions in animal product intake. In both children (2-18 years) and adults (≥19 years), the percent not meeting the Estimated Average Requirement (EAR) decreased for vitamin C, magnesium, vitamin E, folate and iron when plant-based foods were increased. However the percent not meeting the EAR increased for calcium, protein, vitamin A, and vitamin D in this scenario. Doubling protein-rich plant-based foods had no effect on nutrient intake because they were consumed in very low quantities in the baseline diet. The dairy model reduced the percent not meeting the EAR for calcium, vitamin A, vitamin D, magnesium, and protein, while sodium and saturated fat levels increased. Our modeling shows that increasing plant-based

  11. Increasing Plant Based Foods or Dairy Foods Differentially Affects Nutrient Intakes: Dietary Scenarios Using NHANES 2007–2010

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher J. Cifelli

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Diets rich in plant foods and lower in animal-based products have garnered increased attention among researchers, dietitians and health professionals in recent years for their potential to, not only improve health, but also to lessen the environmental impact. However, the potential effects of increasing plant-based foods at the expense of animal-based foods on macro- and micronutrient nutrient adequacy in the U.S. diet is unknown. In addition, dairy foods are consistently under consumed, thus the impact of increased dairy on nutrient adequacy is important to measure. Accordingly, the objective of this study was to use national survey data to model three different dietary scenarios to assess the effects of increasing plant-based foods or dairy foods on macronutrient intake and nutrient adequacy. Data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES 2007–2010 for persons two years and older (n = 17,387 were used in all the analyses. Comparisons were made of usual intake of macronutrients and shortfall nutrients of three dietary scenarios that increased intakes by 100%: (i plant-based foods; (ii protein-rich plant-based foods (i.e., legumes, nuts, seeds, soy; and (iii milk, cheese and yogurt. Scenarios (i and (ii had commensurate reductions in animal product intake. In both children (2–18 years and adults (≥19 years, the percent not meeting the Estimated Average Requirement (EAR decreased for vitamin C, magnesium, vitamin E, folate and iron when plant-based foods were increased. However the percent not meeting the EAR increased for calcium, protein, vitamin A, and vitamin D in this scenario. Doubling protein-rich plant-based foods had no effect on nutrient intake because they were consumed in very low quantities in the baseline diet. The dairy model reduced the percent not meeting the EAR for calcium, vitamin A, vitamin D, magnesium, and protein, while sodium and saturated fat levels increased. Our modeling shows that

  12. [Synergistic emission reduction of chief air pollutants and greenhouse gases-based on scenario simulations of energy consumptions in Beijing].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Yuan-bo; Li, Wei

    2013-05-01

    It is one of the common targets and important tasks for energy management and environmental control of Beijing to improve urban air quality while reducing the emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG). Here, based on the interim and long term developmental planning and energy structure of the city, three energy consumption scenarios in low, moderate and high restrictions were designed by taking the potential energy saving policies and environmental targets into account. The long-range energy alternatives planning (LEAP) model was employed to predict and evaluate reduction effects of the chief air pollutants and GHG during 2010 to 2020 under the three given scenarios. The results showed that if urban energy consumption system was optimized or adjusted by exercising energy saving and emission reduction and pollution control measures, the predicted energy uses will be reduced by 10 to 30 million tons of coal equivalents by 2020. Under the two energy scenarios with moderate and high restrictions, the anticipated emissions of SO2, NOx, PM10, PM2.5, VOC and GHG will be respectively reduced to 71 to 100.2, 159.2 to 218.7, 89.8 to 133.8, 51.4 to 96.0, 56.4 to 74.8 and 148 200 to 164 700 thousand tons. Correspondingly, when compared with the low-restriction scenario, the reducing rate will be 53% to 67% , 50% to 64% , 33% to 55% , 25% to 60% , 41% to 55% and 26% to 34% respectively. Furthermore, based on a study of synergistic emission reduction of the air pollutants and GHG, it was proposed that the adjustment and control of energy consumptions shall be intensively developed in the three sectors of industry, transportation and services. In this way the synergistic reduction of the emissions of chief air pollutants and GHG will be achieved; meanwhile the pressures of energy demands may be deliberately relieved.

  13. Spatial, temporal and frequency based climate change assessment in Columbia River Basin using multi downscaled-scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rana, Arun; Moradkhani, Hamid

    2016-07-01

    Uncertainties in climate modelling are well documented in literature. Global Climate Models (GCMs) are often used to downscale the climatic parameters on a regional scale. In the present work, we have analyzed the changes in precipitation and temperature for future scenario period of 2070-2099 with respect to historical period of 1970-2000 from statistically downscaled GCM projections in Columbia River Basin (CRB). Analysis is performed using two different statistically downscaled climate projections (with ten GCMs downscaled products each, for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, from CMIP5 dataset) namely, those from the Bias Correction and Spatial Downscaling (BCSD) technique generated at Portland State University and from the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) technique, generated at University of Idaho, totaling to 40 different scenarios. The two datasets for BCSD and MACA are downscaled from observed data for both scenarios projections i.e. RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Analysis is performed using spatial change (yearly scale), temporal change (monthly scale), percentile change (seasonal scale), quantile change (yearly scale), and wavelet analysis (yearly scale) in the future period from the historical period, respectively, at a scale of 1/16th of degree for entire CRB region. Results have indicated in varied degree of spatial change pattern for the entire Columbia River Basin, especially western part of the basin. At temporal scales, winter precipitation has higher variability than summer and vice versa for temperature. Most of the models have indicated considerate positive change in quantiles and percentiles for both precipitation and temperature. Wavelet analysis provided insights into possible explanation to changes in precipitation.

  14. Regional analysis of social characteristics for evacuation resource planning: ARkStorm scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wein, Anne; Ratliff, Jamie L.; Allan Baez,; Sleeter, Rachel

    2016-01-01

    Local planning is insufficient for regional catastrophes; regional exercises are needed to test emergency plans and decision-making structures. The ARkStorm scenario would trigger a mass evacuation that would be complicated by the social characteristics of populations [e.g., vehicle ownership, age, poverty, English language limitation (ELL), and shelter needs]. Land cover data and dasymetric mapping improves the allocation of residential populations and their social characteristics to the ARkStorm flood zone in 21 counties in California. Numbers and concentrations of county, urban, and rural residents exposed to flooding as well as populations in and out of the scenario flood zone are profiled. The results inform mass evacuation planning by providing a means to (1) examine the sufficiency of mutual aid agreements, (2) underscore planning for carless populations, and (3) tailor multilingual communication strategies. The various geographical distinctions emphasize different challenges throughout the region. It will be important to investigate behavioral responses to warnings, identify evacuation constraints (e.g., shelter capacity versus need), and obtain comparable data on transient populations.

  15. Emergy Analysis and Sustainability Efficiency Analysis of Different Crop-Based Biodiesel in Life Cycle Perspective

    OpenAIRE

    Jingzheng Ren; Alessandro Manzardo; Anna Mazzi; Andrea Fedele; Antonio Scipioni

    2013-01-01

    Biodiesel as a promising alternative energy resource has been a hot spot in chemical engineering nowadays, but there is also an argument about the sustainability of biodiesel. In order to analyze the sustainability of biodiesel production systems and select the most sustainable scenario, various kinds of crop-based biodiesel including soybean-, rapeseed-, sunflower-, jatropha- and palm-based biodiesel production options are studied by emergy analysis; soybean-based scenario is recognized as t...

  16. Analysis of Prominent Reactive Routing Protocols using Self Created Network Scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amandeep Makkar

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Mobile Adhoc Network is characterized by multi-hop wireless connectivity and dynamic topology. The mobile nodes in this network communicate with each other without established infrastructure. Since the wireless links are highly error prone and can go down frequently due to mobility of nodes, therefore, routing in MANET is a critical task due to highly dynamic environment. In this research paper, pattern analysis of two on-demand routing protocols has been done by presenting their functionality. A simulation model with TCP and UDP connections has been developed to study inter-layer interactions and their performance implications. The performance differential parameters have been analyzed using metrics like PDR with varying speed and pause time. Based on the simulation results, recommendations have been made about the significance of either protocol in various situations. The study reveals that DSR protocol outperforms AODV protocol under low as well as high mobility situation in case of UDP as well as TCP connections. AODV protocol also starts performing well under high mobility situation. DSR protocol outperforms AODV protocol when the connections are through UDP and this analysis is independent of pause time. AODV protocol outperforms the DSR protocol when the connections are through TCP and the pause time is increased up to a large extent.

  17. THE EFFECTS OF SCENARIO BASED BLENDED LEARNING ENVIRONMENT ON ATTITUDES OF PRESERVICE TECHNOLOGIES TEACHERS TOWARD TEACHING PROFESSION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Serap SAMSA

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study was to define the effects of experiences that have been acquired at the Teacher Experience Course and skills acquired at the Blended Learning Environment on attitudes of preservice technologies teachers toward teaching profession. In the study, a pretest-posttest quasi-experimental design was used. The study group is consisting of 37 students who were registered for Teacher Experience Course of Computer Education and Instructional Technology, Faculty of Educational Science, Ankara University. In order to collect data a 5 point likert scale with 34 items, which is developed by Üstüner (2006, was used. The scale was used both at the beginning and at the end of the semester. At the beginning of the semester students who would go to the public schools institutions once a week were randomly assigned to one of the five schools. The study took 10 weeks. Beginning from 4th week, students were given scenarios once a week, totally 8 scenarios. The main aim of these scenarios was to assist students in order to improve their standpoints according to the problems that they encountered in the school. Scenarios and solutions were discussed at the face to face courses, semiweekly. The period of Teaching Practice and generated solutions according to presented problems were assessed with students at the last week of the study. Descriptive statistics and t-test statistical technique were used to analysis of data. The result of the study indicated that there is a significant difference in favour of average points of posttest.

  18. Rural energy survey and scenario analysis of village energy consumption. A case study in Lao People's Democratic Republic

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mustonen, S.M. [Finland Futures Research Centre, Turku School of Economics, Pinninkatu 47, 33100 Tampere (Finland)

    2010-02-15

    In developing countries, providing all citizens an access to modern forms of energy is among the central energy policy objectives, as the linkages between modern energy services and human development are widely recognized. This paper presents in a scenario analysis of rural energy consumption, how energy services in different sectors of a village economy contribute to the achievement of the UNDP Millennium Development Goals. In a rural village in Lao People's Democratic Republic, household energy demand and energy uses were surveyed immediately prior to the electrification of the village. Based on the situation preceding electrification of the village, the development of village electrification was studied by simulating the village energy system, accounting for all village energy uses but transportation. To study the potential development of electricity demand in the village, three scenarios were constructed using the LEAP model: 'residential demand', 'income generation' and 'public services'. Energy demand in each scenario was analyzed with reference to the Millennium Development Goals. (author)

  19. Rural energy survey and scenario analysis of village energy consumption: A case study in Lao People's Democratic Republic

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mustonen, S.M., E-mail: suvisanna.mustonen@tut.f [Finland Futures Research Centre, Turku School of Economics, Pinninkatu 47, 33100 Tampere (Finland)

    2010-02-15

    In developing countries, providing all citizens an access to modern forms of energy is among the central energy policy objectives, as the linkages between modern energy services and human development are widely recognized. This paper presents in a scenario analysis of rural energy consumption, how energy services in different sectors of a village economy contribute to the achievement of the UNDP Millennium Development Goals. In a rural village in Lao People's Democratic Republic, household energy demand and energy uses were surveyed immediately prior to the electrification of the village. Based on the situation preceding electrification of the village, the development of village electrification was studied by simulating the village energy system, accounting for all village energy uses but transportation. To study the potential development of electricity demand in the village, three scenarios were constructed using the LEAP model: 'residential demand', 'income generation' and 'public services'. Energy demand in each scenario was analyzed with reference to the Millennium Development Goals.

  20. A Scenario-Based Mobile Application for Robot-Assisted Smart Digital Homes

    CERN Document Server

    Manashty, Ali Reza; Jahromi, Zahra Forootan

    2010-01-01

    Smart homes are becoming more popular, as every day a new home appliance can be digitally controlled. Smart Digital Homes are using a server to make interaction with all the possible devices in one place, on a computer or webpage. In this paper we designed and implemented a mobile application using Windows Mobile platform that can connect to the controlling server of a Smart Home and grants the access to the Smart Home devices and robots everywhere possible. UML diagrams are presented to illustrate the application design process. Robots are also considered as devices that are able to interact to other object and devices. Scenarios are defined as a set of sequential actions to help manage different tasks all in one place. The mobile application can connect to the server using GPRS mobile internet and Short Message System (SMS). Interactive home map is also designed for easier status-checking and interacting with the devices using the mobile phones.

  1. A methanotroph-based biorefinery: Potential scenarios for generating multiple products from a single fermentation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strong, P J; Kalyuzhnaya, M; Silverman, J; Clarke, W P

    2016-09-01

    Methane, a carbon source for methanotrophic bacteria, is the principal component of natural gas and is produced during anaerobic digestion of organic matter (biogas). Methanotrophs are a viable source of single cell protein (feed supplement) and can produce various products, since they accumulate osmolytes (e.g. ectoine, sucrose), phospholipids (potential biofuels) and biopolymers (polyhydroxybutyrate, glycogen), among others. Other cell components, such as surface layers, metal chelating proteins (methanobactin), enzymes (methane monooxygenase) or heterologous proteins hold promise as future products. Here, scenarios are presented where ectoine, polyhydroxybutyrate or protein G are synthesised as the primary product, in conjunction with a variety of ancillary products that could enhance process viability. Single or dual-stage processes and volumetric requirements for bioreactors are discussed, in terms of an annual biomass output of 1000 tonnesyear(-1). Product yields are discussed in relation to methane and oxygen consumption and organic waste generation. PMID:27146469

  2. An Empirically grounded Agent Based simulator for the Air Traffic Management in the SESAR scenario

    CERN Document Server

    Gurtner, Gérald; Ducci, Marco; Miccichè, Salvatore

    2016-01-01

    In this paper we present a simulator allowing to perform policy experiments relative to the air traffic management. Different SESAR solutions can be implemented in the model to see the reaction of the different stakeholders as well as other relevant metrics (delays, safety, etc). The model describes both the strategic phase associated to the planning of the flight trajectories and the tactical modifications occurring in the en-route phase. An implementation of the model is available as open-source and freely accessible by any user. More specifically, different procedures related to business trajectories and free-routing are tested and we illustrate the capabilities of the model on airspace implementing these concepts. After performing numerical simulations with the model, we show that in a free-routing scenario the controllers perform less operations although they are dispersed over a larger portion of the airspace. This can potentially increase the complexity of conflict detection and resolution for controll...

  3. Acoustic data analysis and scenario over watch from an aerostat at the NATO SET-153 field experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reiff, Christian; Scanlon, Michael

    2012-06-01

    The purpose of the NATO SET-153 field experiment was to provide an opportunity to demonstrate multiple sensor technologies in an urban environment and determine integration capabilities for future development. The Army Research Laboratory (ARL) experimental aerostat was used primarily as a persistent over watch capability as a substitute for a UAV. Continuous video was recorded on the aerostat and segments of video were captured of the scenarios on the ground that the camera was following manually. Some of the segments showing scenario activities will be presented. The captured pictures and video frames have telemetry in the headers that provides the UTM time and the Inertial Navigation System (INS) GPS location and the inertial roll, pitch, and yaw as well as the camera gimbal pan and tilt angles. The timing is useful to synchronize the images with the scenario events providing activity ground truth. The INS, GPS, and camera gimbal angle values can be used with the acoustic solution for the location of a sound source to determine the relative accuracy of the solution if the camera is pointed at the sound source. This method will be confirmed by the use of a propane cannon whose GPS location is logged. During the field experiment, other interesting acoustic events such as vehicle convoys, platoon level firefights with vehicles using blanks, and a UAV helicopter were recorded and will be presented in a quick analysis.

  4. ANALYSIS OF THE SCIENTIFIC PRODUCTION ON SCENARIO PLANNING IN THE WEB OF SCIENCE FROM 1983 TO 2012

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adalberto Tacin

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to conduct an evaluation of the scientific literature on scenario planning within the production of the Web of Science - a set of databases known as Science Citation Indexes - in the period between 1983 and 2012, adding up 451 articles. We carried out a bibliometric study, adopting an exploratory perspective of mixed nature: qualitative for the bibliographic part and quantitative, regarding to descriptive statistics. The data analysis showed, on the research subarea for the topic 'management science', an interest of 47% with a total of 212 articles, followed by 'business & economy’ with 91 articles (20.2% and thirdly the subarea of 'public administration' figures with 68 publications (15.1%. We also observed that 92 journals published papers related to 'scenario planning' during the survey period. The Dutch European Journal of Operation Research published 93 articles, followed by the North American Technological Forecasting and Social Change with 50 articles and the British Journal of the Operational Research Society with 48 publications. We believe that the systematization of the main authors and most cited articles in the field of scenario planning must be useful for advancing and maturing future works on this topic.

  5. The Nankai Trough earthquake tsunamis in Korea: numerical studies of the 1707 Hoei earthquake and physics-based scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, SatByul; Saito, Tatsuhiko; Fukuyama, Eiichi; Kang, Tae-Seob

    2016-04-01

    Historical documents in Korea and China report abnormal waves in the sea and rivers close to the date of the 1707 Hoei earthquake, which occurred in the Nankai Trough, off southwestern Japan. This indicates that the tsunami caused by the Hoei earthquake might have reached Korea and China, which suggests a potential hazard in Korea from large earthquakes in the Nankai Trough. We conducted tsunami simulations to study the details of tsunamis in Korea caused by large earthquakes. Our results showed that the Hoei earthquake (Mw 8.8) tsunami reached the Korean Peninsula about 200 min after the earthquake occurred. The maximum tsunami height was ~0.5 m along the Korean coast. The model of the Hoei earthquake predicted a long-lasting tsunami whose highest peak arrived 600 min later after the first arrival near the coastline of Jeju Island. In addition, we conducted tsunami simulations using physics-based scenarios of anticipated earthquakes in the Nankai subduction zone. The maximum tsunami height in the scenarios (Mw 8.5-8.6) was ~0.4 m along the Korean coast. As a simple evaluation of larger possible tsunamis, we increased the amount of stress released by the earthquake by a factor of two and three, resulting in scenarios for Mw 8.8 and 8.9 earthquakes, respectively. The tsunami height increased by 0.1-0.4 m compared to that estimated by the Hoei earthquake.

  6. Scenario? Guilty!

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kyng, Morten

    1992-01-01

    Robert Campbell categorizes the word "scenario" as a buzzword, identifies four major uses within HCI and suggests that we adopt new terms differentiating these four uses of the word. My first reaction to reading the article was definitely positive, but rereading it gave me enough second thoughts...

  7. Developing Scenarios: Linking Environmental Scanning and Strategic Planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whiteley, Meredith A.; And Others

    1990-01-01

    The multiple scenario analysis technique for organizational planning used by multinational corporations is adaptable for colleges and universities. Arizona State University launched a futures-based planning project using the Delphi technique and cross-impact analysis to produce three alternative scenarios (stable, turbulent, and chaotic) to expand…

  8. Impact of the Kyoto Protocol on the Iberian Electricity Market: A scenario analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper presents an assessment of the impact of the Kyoto Protocol on the Iberian Electricity Market during two periods: the first phase (2005-2007) and the second phase (2008-2012). A market-equilibrium model is used in order to analyze different conditions faced by generation companies. Scenarios involving CO2-emission prices, hydro conditions, demand, fuel prices and renewable generation are considered. This valuation will show the significance of CO2-emission prices as regards Spanish and Portuguese electricity prices, generation mix, utilities profits and the total CO2 emissions. Furthermore, the results will illustrate how energy policies implemented by regulators are critical for Spain and Portugal in order to mitigate the negative impact of the Kyoto Protocol. In conclusion, the Iberian electricity system will not be able to reach the Kyoto targets, except in very favorable conditions (CO2-emission prices over Euro 15/ton and the implementation of very efficient energy policies)

  9. Impact of the Kyoto Protocol on the Iberian Electricity Market: A scenario analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper presents an assessment of the impact of the Kyoto Protocol on the Iberian Electricity Market during two periods: the first phase (2005-2007) and the second phase (2008-2012). A market-equilibrium model is used in order to analyze different conditions faced by generation companies. Scenarios involving CO2-emission prices, hydro conditions, demand, fuel prices and renewable generation are considered. This valuation will show the significance of CO2-emission prices as regards Spanish and Portuguese electricity prices, generation mix, utilities profits and the total CO2 emissions. Furthermore, the results will illustrate how energy policies implemented by regulators are critical for Spain and Portugal in order to mitigate the negative impact of the Kyoto Protocol. In conclusion, the Iberian electricity system will not be able to reach the Kyoto targets, except in very favorable conditions (CO2-emission prices over EUR15/ton and the implementation of very efficient energy policies). (author)

  10. Analysis of sheltering and evacuation strategies for an urban nuclear detonation scenario.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yoshimura, Ann S.; Brandt, Larry D.

    2009-05-01

    Development of an effective strategy for shelter and evacuation is among the most important planning tasks in preparation for response to a low yield, nuclear detonation in an urban area. This study examines shelter-evacuate policies and effectiveness focusing on a 10 kt scenario in Los Angeles. The goal is to provide technical insights that can support development of urban response plans. Results indicate that extended shelter-in-place can offer the most robust protection when high quality shelter exists. Where less effective shelter is available and the fallout radiation intensity level is high, informed evacuation at the appropriate time can substantially reduce the overall dose to personnel. However, uncertainties in the characteristics of the fallout region and in the exit route can make evacuation a risky strategy. Analyses indicate that only a relatively small fraction of the total urban population may experience significant dose reduction benefits from even a well-informed evacuation plan.

  11. Analysis of sheltering and evacuation strategies for a national capital region nuclear detonation scenario.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yoshimura, Ann S.; Brandt, Larry D.

    2011-12-01

    Development of an effective strategy for shelter and evacuation is among the most important planning tasks in preparation for response to a low yield, nuclear detonation in an urban area. Extensive studies have been performed and guidance published that highlight the key principles for saving lives following such an event. However, region-specific data are important in the planning process as well. This study examines some of the unique regional factors that impact planning for a 10 kT detonation in the National Capital Region. The work utilizes a single scenario to examine regional impacts as well as the shelter-evacuate decision alternatives at one exemplary point. For most Washington, DC neighborhoods, the excellent assessed shelter quality available make shelter-in-place or selective transit to a nearby shelter a compelling post-detonation strategy.

  12. Performance analysis of Xen virtual machines in real-world scenarios

    CERN Document Server

    Heissler, Adrian

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents results of the performance benchmarks of the Open Source hypervisor Xen. The study focuses on the network related performance as well as on the application related performance of multiple virtual machines that were running on the same Xen hypervisor. The comparison was carried out using a self-developed benchmark suite that consists of easily available Open Source tools. The goal is to measure the performance of the hypervisor in typical real-world application scenarios when used for "mass virtual hosting", such as hosting solutions of so called virtual private servers for small-to-medium sized businesses environments. The results of the benchmarks show, that the tested Xen setup offers good performance with respect to network traffic stress tests, but only 75% of the performance of the non-virtualized reference environment. This application performance score decreases as more virtual machines are running simultaneously.

  13. Analysis of sheltering and evacuation strategies for a Chicago nuclear detonation scenario.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yoshimura, Ann S.; Brandt, Larry D.

    2011-09-01

    Development of an effective strategy for shelter and evacuation is among the most important planning tasks in preparation for response to a low yield, nuclear detonation in an urban area. Extensive studies have been performed and guidance published that highlight the key principles for saving lives following such an event. However, region-specific data are important in the planning process as well. This study examines some of the unique regional factors that impact planning for a 10 kt detonation in Chicago. The work utilizes a single scenario to examine regional impacts as well as the shelter-evacuate decision alternatives at selected exemplary points. For many Chicago neighborhoods, the excellent assessed shelter quality available make shelter-in-place or selective transit to a nearby shelter a compelling post-detonation strategy.

  14. Industrialization scenario for X-ray telescopes production based on glass slumping

    Science.gov (United States)

    Proserpio, Laura; Döhring, Thorsten; Breunig, Elias; Friedrich, Peter; Winter, Anita

    2014-07-01

    Large X-ray segmented telescopes will be a key element for future missions aiming to solve still hidden mysteries of the hot and energetic Universe, such as the role of black holes in shaping their surroundings or how and why ordinary matter assembles into galaxies and clusters as it does. The major challenge of these systems is to guarantee a large effective area in combination with large field of view and good angular resolution, while maintaining the mass of the entire system within the geometrical and mass budget posed by space launchers. The slumping technology presents all the technical potentiality to be implemented for the realization of such demanding systems: it is based on the use of thin glass foils, shaped at high temperature in an oven over a suitable mould. Thousands of slumped segments are then aligned and assembled together into the optical payload. An exercise on the mass production approach has been conducted at Max Planck Institute for Extraterrestrial Physics (MPE) to show that the slumping technology can be a valuable approach for the realization of future X-ray telescopes also from a point of view of industrialization. For the analysis, a possible design for the ATHENA mission telescope was taken as reference.

  15. Exposure Analysis of Rainstorm Waterlogging on Subway in Central Urban Area of Shanghai Based on Multiple Scenario Perspective%多情景视角的上海中心城区地铁暴雨内涝暴露性分析

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    权瑞松

    2015-01-01

    Due to rapid urbanization, most cities in the world like Shanghai have a large number of underground facilities including public transport and commercial facilities such as subway, parks, shopping malls, etc. With the continuous development of underground spaces, the threat of rainstorm waterlogging is increasing. One of the significant components of impacts from rainstorm waterlogging is possibility of damage to underground fa-cilities. Under the background of dramatic increase of extreme weather events, the safety issues of under-ground spaces against rainstorm waterlogging have become an important aspect of urban safety. The present study focused on subway in Shanghai central urban area, and analyzed the exposure of rainstorm waterlogging on subway based on multiple scenario perspective. Considering a series of impact factors of rainstorm water-logging in urban area, the present study established a framework for exposure analysis of rainstorm waterlog-ging on subway through the combination of hydrological modeling and concept model for rainstorm waterlog-ging affected frequency. The results show that the exposure of subway in Shanghai central urban area was not very high. The total number of subway station exits which might suffer rainstorm waterlogging was only 40. Meanwhile, the number of inundated subway exits presents a remarkable increasing trend as increasing rain-storm intensity. Shanghai West Railway Station exit 1 and Loushanguan Road Station exit 3 have high expo-sure rank. The number of subway station exits with medium exposure was 18. There were 20 subway station exits, which have low exposure rank. The exposure index (ES) value indicates that there are obvious differenc-es of exposure degree between different subway lines. Overall, Subway line 2 and line 11 belong to high expo-sure subway line;line 8 and line 10 have medium exposure rank;and line 1, line 4, line 7 and line 9 show low waterlogging exposure. These results will provide reference for

  16. Carbon Footprint of Housing in the Leeds City Region - A Best Practice Scenario Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barrett, John; Dawkins, Elena (Stockholm Environment Inst. (Sweden))|(Univ. of York, Heslington, York YO10 5DD (United Kingdom))

    2008-06-15

    The Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) was commissioned by the Environment Agency to carry out a carbon footprint analysis of the housing sector, using the Leeds City Region (LCR) as an example. The aim was to determine our ability to meet the 80 per cent by 2050 challenge of energy efficiency in the housing sector. The study relates specifically to LCR but its findings will help any planning and development teams make the right decisions and gain the resources necessary to meet carbon budgets at regional and local levels. With a growing population and an additional 263,000 housing units to be built within LCR by 2026, the housing sector would need to reduce its expected total carbon dioxide emissions by 38 million tonnes between 2010 and 2026 to be on track for 80 per cent savings in 2050. The report outlines the most detailed analysis to date of the required measures to deliver a growth-based regional housing strategy, alongside reducing carbon emissions. If the city region's new and existing housing is to attain the levels of energy efficiency necessary to deliver these carbon savings, big changes will be required in the way we build, maintain and run our homes over the next 20 years. There are pockets of good practice already in the region and the study shows that by combining innovative measures on construction standards, improvements to existing housing, low and zero carbon technologies and changing behaviour of householders, LCR can achieve the necessary savings to meet its carbon budget

  17. Scenario Grouping and Classification Methodology for Postprocessing of Data Generated by Integrated Deterministic-Probabilistic Safety Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergey Galushin

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Integrated Deterministic-Probabilistic Safety Assessment (IDPSA combines deterministic model of a nuclear power plant with a method for exploration of the uncertainty space. Huge amount of data is generated in the process of such exploration. It is very difficult to “manually” process and extract from such data information that can be used by a decision maker for risk-informed characterization, understanding, and eventually decision making on improvement of the system safety and performance. Such understanding requires an approach for interpretation, grouping of similar scenario evolutions, and classification of the principal characteristics of the events that contribute to the risk. In this work, we develop an approach for classification and characterization of failure domains. The method is based on scenario grouping, clustering, and application of decision trees for characterization of the influence of timing and order of events. We demonstrate how the proposed approach is used to classify scenarios that are amenable to treatment with Boolean logic in classical Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA from those where timing and order of events determine process evolution and eventually violation of safety criteria. The efficiency of the approach has been verified with application to the SARNET benchmark exercise on the effectiveness of hydrogen management in the containment.

  18. Assessment of neutral particle analysis abilities to measure the plasma hydrogen isotope composition in ITER burning scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The main object of the neutral particle analysis (NPA) on ITER is to measure the hydrogen isotope composition of the plasma using measurements of the neutralized fluxes of the corresponding hydrogen ions. In burning scenarios the reliable on-line measurements of the tritium/deuterium (T/D) density ratio stands out as the most important application of the diagnostics. This paper presents the results of the error analysis of the NPA signals for ‘official’ ITER burning scenarios—inductive and steady state. The goal of the study is to find the range of values of T/D density ratio, where NPA measurements meet the ITER requirements specified for this parameter, i.e. 10% of accuracy and time resolution equal to 0.1 s. This analysis takes into account both the statistics of the particle counts detected by NPA and of the noise counts induced in NPA detectors by neutrons and gammas. The calibration errors and errors of the external plasma parameters, used in the interpretation of NPA data, are also accounted. The results of the study for low (20–200 keV) and high (200 keV–2 MeV) energy ranges of the D and T neutral fluxes are discussed. It was shown that in the inductive scenario NPA can provide the required accuracy of the T/D density ratio measurement if the plasma composition varies within 0.2–10 (edge measurements) and 0.15–10 (core measurements). In the steady-state scenario these ranges are 0.01–10 (edge measurements) and 0.07–7 (core measurements). (paper)

  19. Participatory scenario planning in place-based social-ecological research: insights and experiences from 23 case studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elisa Oteros-Rozas

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Participatory scenario planning (PSP is an increasingly popular tool in place-based environmental research for evaluating alternative futures of social-ecological systems. Although a range of guidelines on PSP methods are available in the scientific and grey literature, there is a need to reflect on existing practices and their appropriate application for different objectives and contexts at the local scale, as well as on their potential perceived outcomes. We contribute to theoretical and empirical frameworks by analyzing how and why researchers assess social-ecological systems using place-based PSP, hence facilitating the appropriate uptake of such scenario tools in the future. We analyzed 23 PSP case studies conducted by the authors in a wide range of social-ecological settings by exploring seven aspects: (1 the context; (2 the original motivations and objectives; (3 the methodological approach; (4 the process; (5 the content of the scenarios; (6 the outputs of the research; and (7 the monitoring and evaluation of the PSP process. This was complemented by a reflection on strengths and weaknesses of using PSP for the place-based social-ecological research. We conclude that the application of PSP, particularly when tailored to shared objectives between local people and researchers, has enriched environmental management and scientific research through building common understanding and fostering learning about future planning of social-ecological systems. However, PSP still requires greater systematic monitoring and evaluation to assess its impact on the promotion of collective action for transitions to sustainability and the adaptation to global environmental change and its challenges.

  20. Sensitivity analysis of synergistic collaborative scenarios towards sustainable nuclear energy systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The paper presents results of the study on the role of collaboration among countries towards sustainable global nuclear energy systems. The study explores various market shares for nuclear fuel cycle services, possible scale of collaboration among countries and assesses benefits and issues relevant for collaboration between suppliers and users of nuclear fuel cycle services. The approach used in the study is based on a heterogeneous world model with grouping of the non-personified nuclear energy countries according to different nuclear fuel cycle policies. The methodology applied in the analysis allocates a fraction of future global nuclear energy generation to each of such country-groups as a function of time. The sensitivity studies performed show the impacts of the group shares on the scope of collaboration among countries and on the resulting possible reactor mix and nuclear fuel cycle infrastructure versus time. The study quantitatively demonstrates that the synergistic approach to nuclear fuel cycle has a significant potential for offering a win-win collaborative strategy to both, technology holders and technology users on their joint way to future sustainable nuclear energy systems. The study also highlights possible issues on such a collaborative way. (authors)

  1. Future impact of traffic emissions on atmospheric ozone and OH based on two scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ø. Hodnebrog

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available The future impact of traffic emissions on atmospheric ozone and OH has been investigated separately for the three sectors AIRcraft, maritime SHIPping and ROAD traffic. To reduce uncertainties we present results from an ensemble of six different atmospheric chemistry models, each simulating the atmospheric chemical composition in a possible high emission scenario (A1B, and with emissions from each transport sector reduced by 5% to estimate sensitivities. Our results are compared with optimistic future emission scenarios (B1 and B1 ACARE, presented in a companion paper, and with the recent past (year 2000. Present-day activity indicates that anthropogenic emissions so far evolve closer to A1B than the B1 scenario.

    As a response to expected changes in emissions, AIR and SHIP will have increased impacts on atmospheric O3 and OH in the future while the impact of ROAD traffic will decrease substantially as a result of technological improvements. In 2050, maximum aircraft-induced O3 occurs near 80° N in the UTLS region and could reach 9 ppbv in the zonal mean during summer. Emissions from ship traffic have their largest O3 impact in the maritime boundary layer with a maximum of 6 ppbv over the North Atlantic Ocean during summer in 2050. The O3 impact of road traffic emissions in the lower troposphere peaks at 3 ppbv over the Arabian Peninsula, much lower than the impact in 2000.

    Radiative Forcing (RF calculations show that the net effect of AIR, SHIP and ROAD combined will change from a~marginal cooling of −0.38 ± 13 mW m−2 in 2000 to a relatively strong cooling of −32 ± 8.9 (B1 or −31 ± 20 mW m−2 (A1B in 2050, when taking into account RF due to changes in O3, CH4 and CH4-induced O3. This is caused both by the enhanced negative net RF from SHIP, which will change from −20 ± 5.4 mW m−2 in 2000 to

  2. Future impact of traffic emissions on atmospheric ozone and OH based on two scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ø. Hodnebrog

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The future impact of traffic emissions on atmospheric ozone and OH has been investigated separately for the three sectors AIRcraft, maritime SHIPping and ROAD traffic. To reduce uncertainties we present results from an ensemble of six different atmospheric chemistry models, each simulating the atmospheric chemical composition in a possible high emission scenario (A1B, and with emissions from each transport sector reduced by 5% to estimate sensitivities. Our results are compared with optimistic future emission scenarios (B1 and B1 ACARE, presented in a companion paper, and with the recent past (year 2000. Present-day activity indicates that anthropogenic emissions so far evolve closer to A1B than the B1 scenario.

    As a response to expected changes in emissions, AIR and SHIP will have increased impacts on atmospheric O3 and OH in the future while the impact of ROAD traffic will decrease substantially as a result of technological improvements. In 2050, maximum aircraft-induced O3 occurs near 80° N in the UTLS region and could reach 9 ppbv in the zonal mean during summer. Emissions from ship traffic have their largest O3 impact in the maritime boundary layer with a maximum of 6 ppbv over the North Atlantic Ocean during summer in 2050. The O3 impact of road traffic emissions in the lower troposphere peaks at 3 ppbv over the Arabian Peninsula, much lower than the impact in 2000.

    Radiative forcing (RF calculations show that the net effect of AIR, SHIP and ROAD combined will change from a marginal cooling of −0.44 ± 13 mW m−2 in 2000 to a relatively strong cooling of −32 ± 9.3 (B1 or −32 ± 18 mW m−2 (A1B in 2050, when taking into account RF due to changes in O3, CH4 and CH4-induced O3. This is caused both by the enhanced negative net RF from SHIP, which will change from −19 ± 5.3 mW m−2 in 2000 to

  3. Teaching Scenario-Based Planning for Sustainable Landscape Development: An Evaluation of Learning Effects in the Cagliari Studio Workshop

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian Albert

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the contributions of an intensive educational workshop to advance students’ understanding and skills for collaborative, scenario-based landscape planning. The research design involves a case study workshop with thirty international students and several regional experts as well as a multi-stage, in-process evaluation. The workshop resulted in six different alternative futures for the region of Cagliari, Italy, and a seventh combined version that was considered best by regional reviewers. The students’ learning evaluation showed substantial advances in their relevant understanding and skills. Key aspects of the workshop pedagogy and the evaluation are discussed, and recommendations for future applications presented.

  4. Investigating Impacts of Alternative Crop Market Scenarios on Land Use Change with an Agent-Based Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Deng Ding

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available We developed an agent-based model (ABM to simulate farmers’ decisions on crop type and fertilizer application in response to commodity and biofuel crop prices. Farm profit maximization constrained by farmers’ profit expectations for land committed to biofuel crop production was used as the decision rule. Empirical parameters characterizing farmers’ profit expectations were derived from an agricultural landowners and operators survey and integrated in the ABM. The integration of crop production cost models and the survey information in the ABM is critical to producing simulations that can provide realistic insights into agricultural land use planning and policy making. Model simulations were run with historical market prices and alternative market scenarios for corn price, soybean to corn price ratio, switchgrass price, and switchgrass to corn stover ratio. The results of the comparison between simulated cropland percentage and crop rotations with satellite-based land cover data suggest that farmers may be underestimating the effects that continuous corn production has on yields. The simulation results for alternative market scenarios based on a survey of agricultural land owners and operators in the Clear Creek Watershed in eastern Iowa show that farmers see cellulosic biofuel feedstock production in the form of perennial grasses or corn stover as a more risky enterprise than their current crop production systems, likely because of market and production risks and lock in effects. As a result farmers do not follow a simple farm-profit maximization rule.

  5. Emergy Analysis and Sustainability Efficiency Analysis of Different Crop-Based Biodiesel in Life Cycle Perspective

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ren, Jingzheng; Manzardo, Alessandro; Mazzi, Anna;

    2013-01-01

    Biodiesel as a promising alternative energy resource has been a hot spot in chemical engineering nowadays, but there is also an argument about the sustainability of biodiesel. In order to analyze the sustainability of biodiesel production systems and select the most sustainable scenario, various...... kinds of crop-based biodiesel including soybean-, rapeseed-, sunflower-, jatropha- and palm-based biodiesel production options are studied by emergy analysis; soybean-based scenario is recognized as the most sustainable scenario that should be chosen for further study in China. DEA method is used...... to evaluate the sustainability efficiencies of these options, and the biodiesel production systems based on soybean, sunflower, and palm are considered as DEA efficient, whereas rapeseed-based and jatropha-based scenarios are needed to be improved, and the improved methods have also been specified....

  6. Future Residential Water Heating Prospects in Brazil: A Scenario Building Ground Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Felipe de Albuquerque Sgarbi

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available In Brazil, electricity is the prime energy carrier for bath shower heating purposes. However, since analyses indicate that expansion of the country´s electricity generation capacity shall spruce from an increased non-renewable sources’ stake in detriment to that of hydroelectricity, high electricity consumption rates that spring from home end uses of the kind have drawn the attention of those who are involved with local energy planning. Furthermore, massive use of electric showers in a short timeframe largely drive electricity demands to culminate in peak loads. For water heating purposes, this context has favoured an alternative to electricity, deemed feasible from both an efficiency and energy infrastructure standpoint: promote fuel gas consumption (liquefied petroleum gas and natural gas in particular. A scenario methodology is herein employed to map electric shower use related variables and players and assess the future behaviour of the core elements that condition resorting to this technology. Thereafter, strategies and opportunities to promote the rational consumption of the country´s power sources ground on the increased use of fuel gases for residential water heating purposes are discussed. 

  7. Parameter variation and scenario analysis in impact assessments of emerging energy technologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breunig, Hanna Marie

    There is a global need for energy technologies that reduce the adverse impacts of societal progress and that address today's challenges without creating tomorrow's problems. Life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) can support technology developers in achieving these prerequisites of sustainability by providing a systems perspective. However, modeling the early-stage scale up and impacts of technology systems may lead to unreliable or incomplete results due to a lack of representative technical, spatial, and temporal data. The goal of this dissertation is to support the acceleration of clean energy technology development by providing information about the regional variation of impacts and benefits resulting from plausible deployment scenarios. Three emerging energy technologies are selected as case studies: (1) brine management for carbon dioxide sequestration; (2) carbon dioxide capture, utilization, and sequestration; (3) stationary fuel cells for combined heat and power in commercial buildings. In all three case studies, priority areas are identified where more reliable data and models are necessary for reducing uncertainty, and vital information is revealed on how impacts vary spatially and temporally. Importantly, moving away from default technology and waste management hierarchies as a source of data fosters goal-driven systems thinking which in turn leads to the discovery of technology improvement potentials.

  8. Radioactive bone cement for the treatment of spinal metastases: a dosimetric analysis of simulated clinical scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaneko, T. S.; Sehgal, V.; Skinner, H. B.; Al-Ghazi, M. S. A. L.; Ramsinghani, N. S.; Marquez Miranda, M.; Keyak, J. H.

    2012-07-01

    Vertebral metastases are a common manifestation of many cancers, potentially leading to vertebral collapse and neurological complications. Conventional treatment often involves percutaneous vertebroplasty/kyphoplasty followed by external beam radiation therapy. As a more convenient alternative, we have introduced radioactive bone cement, i.e. bone cement incorporating a radionuclide. In this study, we used a previously developed Monte Carlo radiation transport modeling method to evaluate dose distributions from phosphorus-32 radioactive cement in simulated clinical scenarios. Isodose curves were generally concentric about the surface of bone cement injected into cadaveric vertebrae, indicating that dose distributions are relatively predictable, thus facilitating treatment planning (cement formulation and dosimetry method are patent pending). Model results indicated that a therapeutic dose could be delivered to tumor/bone within ∼4 mm of the cement surface while maintaining a safe dose to radiosensitive tissue beyond this distance. This therapeutic range should be sufficient to treat target volumes within the vertebral body when tumor ablation or other techniques are used to create a cavity into which the radioactive cement can be injected. With further development, treating spinal metastases with radioactive bone cement may become a clinically useful and convenient alternative to the conventional two-step approach of percutaneous strength restoration followed by radiotherapy.

  9. Dynamic optimization of ISR sensors using a risk-based reward function applied to ground and space surveillance scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeSena, J. T.; Martin, S. R.; Clarke, J. C.; Dutrow, D. A.; Newman, A. J.

    2012-06-01

    As the number and diversity of sensing assets available for intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) operations continues to expand, the limited ability of human operators to effectively manage, control and exploit the ISR ensemble is exceeded, leading to reduced operational effectiveness. Automated support both in the processing of voluminous sensor data and sensor asset control can relieve the burden of human operators to support operation of larger ISR ensembles. In dynamic environments it is essential to react quickly to current information to avoid stale, sub-optimal plans. Our approach is to apply the principles of feedback control to ISR operations, "closing the loop" from the sensor collections through automated processing to ISR asset control. Previous work by the authors demonstrated non-myopic multiple platform trajectory control using a receding horizon controller in a closed feedback loop with a multiple hypothesis tracker applied to multi-target search and track simulation scenarios in the ground and space domains. This paper presents extensions in both size and scope of the previous work, demonstrating closed-loop control, involving both platform routing and sensor pointing, of a multisensor, multi-platform ISR ensemble tasked with providing situational awareness and performing search, track and classification of multiple moving ground targets in irregular warfare scenarios. The closed-loop ISR system is fullyrealized using distributed, asynchronous components that communicate over a network. The closed-loop ISR system has been exercised via a networked simulation test bed against a scenario in the Afghanistan theater implemented using high-fidelity terrain and imagery data. In addition, the system has been applied to space surveillance scenarios requiring tracking of space objects where current deliberative, manually intensive processes for managing sensor assets are insufficiently responsive. Simulation experiment results are presented

  10. A Cloud Robotics Based Service for Managing RPAS in Emergency, Rescue and Hazardous Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silvagni, Mario; Chiaberge, Marcello; Sanguedolce, Claudio; Dara, Gianluca

    2016-04-01

    Cloud robotics and cloud services are revolutionizing not only the ICT world but also the robotics industry, giving robots more computing capabilities, storage and connection bandwidth while opening new scenarios that blend the physical to the digital world. In this vision, new IT architectures are required to manage robots, retrieve data from them and create services to interact with users. Among all the robots this work is mainly focused on flying robots, better known as drones, UAV (Unmanned Aerial Vehicle) or RPAS (Remotely Piloted Aircraft Systems). The cloud robotics approach shifts the concept of having a single local "intelligence" for every single UAV, as a unique device that carries out onboard all the computation and storage processes, to a more powerful "centralized brain" located in the cloud. This breakthrough opens new scenarios where UAVs are agents, relying on remote servers for most of their computational load and data storage, creating a network of devices where they can share knowledge and information. Many applications, using UAVs, are growing as interesting and suitable devices for environment monitoring. Many services can be build fetching data from UAVs, such as telemetry, video streaming, pictures or sensors data; once. These services, part of the IT architecture, can be accessed via web by other devices or shared with other UAVs. As test cases of the proposed architecture, two examples are reported. In the first one a search and rescue or emergency management, where UAVs are required for monitoring intervention, is shown. In case of emergency or aggression, the user requests the emergency service from the IT architecture, providing GPS coordinates and an identification number. The IT architecture uses a UAV (choosing among the available one according to distance, service status, etc.) to reach him/her for monitoring and support operations. In the meantime, an officer will use the service to see the current position of the UAV, its

  11. Scenario development methodologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In the period 1981-1994, SKB has studied several methodologies to systematize and visualize all the features, events and processes (FEPs) that can influence a repository for radioactive waste in the future. All the work performed is based on the terminology and basic findings in the joint SKI/SKB work on scenario development presented in the SKB Technical Report 89-35. The methodologies studied are a) Event tree analysis, b) Influence diagrams and c) Rock Engineering Systems (RES) matrices. Each one of the methodologies is explained in this report as well as examples of applications. One chapter is devoted to a comparison between the two most promising methodologies, namely: Influence diagrams and the RES methodology. In conclusion a combination of parts of the Influence diagram and the RES methodology is likely to be a promising approach. 26 refs

  12. VoIP Call Optimization in Diverse Network Scenarios Using Learning Based State-Space Search Technique

    CERN Document Server

    Chakraborty, Tamal; Misra, Iti Saha; Sanyal, Salil Kumar

    2011-01-01

    A VoIP based call has stringent QoS requirements with respect to delay, jitter, loss, MOS and R-Factor. Various QoS mechanisms implemented to satisfy these requirements must be adaptive under diverse network scenarios and applied in proper sequence, otherwise they may conflict with each other. The objective of this paper is to address the problem of adaptive QoS maintenance and sequential execution of available QoS implementation mechanisms with respect to VoIP under varying network conditions. In this paper, we generalize this problem as state-space problem and solve it. Firstly, we map the problem of QoS optimization into state-space domain and apply incremental heuristic search. We implement the proposed algorithm under various network and user scenarios in a VoIP test-bed for QoS enhancement. Then learning strategy is implemented for refinement of knowledge base to improve the performance of call quality over time. Finally, we discuss the advantages and uniqueness of our approach.

  13. Surgical interventions in intracranial arteriovenous malformations: Indications and outcome analysis in a changing scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thapa Amit

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Background : Intracranial arteriovenous malformations (AVM are being increasingly managed by multimodality approach. This changing scenario encouraged us to study the present state of surgery in intracranial AVMs and the outcomes. Materials and Methods : Of a total of 868 patients evaluated for suspected or known AVMs between January 2000 and July 2008, 790 had intracranial AVMs. The clinical characteristics and surgical outcomes of the 111 opeated patients were analyzed. Results : Of the 111 patients, 73 were males. Clinical features included: Headache (70%, loss of consciousness (48% and seizures (32%. The commonest AVM grade was Spetzler-Martin (SM grade II (41%, 7% had AVM> 6 cm and 78% had evidence of bleed. In total 143 surgeries were performed and 22% of patients required multiple interventions. The types of surgical interventions included elective excision of AVM in 23%, emergency surgery (either AVM excision or evacuation of hematoma in 55%, surgery following radiosurgery/embolization in 5% and palliative non-definitive surgeries (e.g. shunt in 15%. Post-operative angiography was done in 67% of patients. Obliteration rates for elective excision of AVM in Spetzler Martin Grade I, II, IIIa, IIIb and IV were 100%, 71%, 33%, 50% and 67% respectively (mean follow-up:31.6 months. Of 39 patients with residual AVMs, 33 received gamma knife and four underwent embolization. Outcome was modified Rankin scale (mRS grade 1 in 34% of paitnets and the overall favorable outcome was 83% and there were six deaths. Conclusion : In our patients′ cohort one in every eight patients required surgery. In intracranial AVMs, surgery still plays an important role. In developing countries like India it may be beneficial to electively excise Grade I and II AVMs if cost is a consideration.

  14. A simulation method for the stability analysis of landscape scenarios by using a NetLogo application in GIS environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gobattoni, Federica; Lauro, Giuliana; Leone, Antonio; Monaco, Roberto; Pelorosso, Raffaele

    2010-05-01

    Landscape continually evolves under the influence of a complex and broad range of natural processes, directly or indirectly determined by land use, but also under the impact of anthropic actions of planning and territorial management. While processes such as earthquakes, landslides, and so on, are manifestations of this evolutionary process, human decisions concerning land government (cropping, urbanization etc.) may affect dramatically the landscape evolution in a complex mechanism of cause-and-effect leading to accelerated erosion phenomena, hydro-geological instability and flood events. To better understand landscape evolution and change in time, several numerical and empirical models have been developed and implemented with the aim to explore and explain such complex processes; reproducing landscape evolution through models and schematic representation of reality could be a powerful and reliable tool for natural resources planning and decision making in land management. Even understanding interactions and relations between the involved variables, predicting how the system will react to external inputs such as political, social or economic constraints, could be strongly difficult. Decision support systems could help in choosing among possible alternatives by integrating different sources of information and "What if" scenarios could be developed as possible future states of the world that represent alternative plausible conditions under different assumptions (Mahmoud M. wt al., 2009). Modelling approaches can be successfully applied to describe and assess both the natural spatial environmental variability and the anthropic impacts at different temporal and spatial scales even if they usually takes into account each aspect of the environmental system separately and without looking directly at landscape as a unique system and without understanding its intrinsic evolution mechanisms (H. Siegrist, 2002, S. Demberel, 2003, A. Brenner, 2005). GIS-based models which

  15. A Usability and Learnability Case Study of Glass Flight Deck Interfaces and Pilot Interactions through Scenario-based Training

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Cino, Thomas J., II

    In the aviation industry, digitally produced and presented flight, navigation, and aircraft information is commonly referred to as glass flight decks. Glass flight decks are driven by computer-based subsystems and have long been a part of military and commercial aviation sectors. Over the past 15 years, the General Aviation (GA) sector of the aviation industry has become a recent beneficiary of the rapid advancement of computer-based glass flight deck (GFD) systems. While providing the GA pilot considerable enhancements in the quality of information about the status and operations of the aircraft, training pilots on the use of glass flight decks is often delivered with traditional methods (e.g. textbooks, PowerPoint presentations, user manuals, and limited computer-based training modules). These training methods have been reported as less than desirable in learning to use the glass flight deck interface. Difficulties in achieving a complete understanding of functional and operational characteristics of the GFD systems, acquiring a full understanding of the interrelationships of the varied subsystems, and handling the wealth of flight information provided have been reported. Documented pilot concerns of poor user experience and satisfaction, and problems with the learning the complex and sophisticated interface of the GFD are additional issues with current pilot training approaches. A case study was executed to explore ways to improve training using GFD systems at a Midwestern aviation university. The researcher investigated if variations in instructional systems design and training methods for learning glass flight deck technology would affect the perceptions and attitudes of pilots of the learnability (an attribute of usability) of the glass flight deck interface. Specifically, this study investigated the effectiveness of scenario-based training (SBT) methods to potentially improve pilot knowledge and understanding of a GFD system, and overall pilot user

  16. Application of scenario-driven hazard analysis in the solid rocket booster

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kouroush Jenab

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Bibliographical Notes: Kouroush Jenab is a senior member of IEEE, received the B.Sc. degree from the IE Department at Isfahan University of Technology (1989, the M.Sc. degree from the IE Department at Tehran Polytechnic (1992, and the Ph.D. degree from the Department of Mechanical Engineering at the University of Ottawa (2005. He served as a senior engineer/manager in auto, and high-tech industries for 18 years. He joined the National Research Council Canada as a research officer where he participated in several international research projects. In 2006, he joined the Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering at Ryerson University, Toronto as assistant professor. Currently, Dr. Jenab is Faculty of the College of Aeronautics at Embry-riddle Aeronautical University, FL, USA. He has published over 110 papers in international scientific journals based on his experiences in industries. Nikita Ottosen is a current Systems Engineering graduate student at Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University. She received her undergraduate degree from ERAU in Aeronautics and is currently working as an Assistant Campus Director at the Crestview, FL campus. She gained valuable knowledge previously working for the Boeing Company and Seattle-Tacoma International Airport, known as The Port of Seattle, in Seattle, Washington. During her time at The Port of Seattle she worked alongside the Wildlife Management department to conduct a study on effective wildlife management strategies. Her study will become a part of a future Airport Cooperative Research Program (ACRP publication, sponsored by the FAA’s Transportation Research Board of the National Academies. Saeid Moslehpour is a full professor and department chair in the Electrical and Computer Engineering Department in the College of Engineering, Technology, and Architecture at the University of Hartford. He holds Ph.D. (1993 from Iowa State University and Bachelor of Science (1989 and Master of Science (1990

  17. Evolving practices in environmental scenarios: a new scenario typology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wilkinson, Angela; Eidinow, Esther [James Martin Institute, Said Business School, University of Oxford, Park End Street, Oxford OX1 1HP (United Kingdom)

    2008-10-15

    A new approach to scenarios focused on environmental concerns, changes and challenges, i.e. so-called 'environmental scenarios', is necessary if global environmental changes are to be more effectively appreciated and addressed through sustained and collaborative action. On the basis of a comparison of previous approaches to global environmental scenarios and a review of existing scenario typologies, we propose a new scenario typology to help guide scenario-based interventions. This typology makes explicit the types of and/or the approaches to knowledge ('the epistemologies') which underpin a scenario approach. Drawing on previous environmental scenario projects, we distinguish and describe two main types in this new typology: 'problem-focused' and 'actor-centric'. This leads in turn to our suggestion for a third type, which we call 'RIMA'-'reflexive interventionist or multi-agent based'. This approach to scenarios emphasizes the importance of the involvement of different epistemologies in a scenario-based process of action learning in the public interest. We suggest that, by combining the epistemologies apparent in the previous two types, this approach can create a more effective bridge between longer-term thinking and more immediate actions. Our description is aimed at scenario practitioners in general, as well as those who work with (environmental) scenarios that address global challenges.

  18. An efficient scenario-based stochastic programming framework for multi-objective optimal micro-grid operation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Highlights: ► Proposes a stochastic model for optimal energy management. ► Consider uncertainties related to the forecasted values for load demand. ► Consider uncertainties of forecasted values of output power of wind and photovoltaic units. ► Consider uncertainties of forecasted values of market price. ► Present an improved multi-objective teaching–learning-based optimization. -- Abstract: This paper proposes a stochastic model for optimal energy management with the goal of cost and emission minimization. In this model, the uncertainties related to the forecasted values for load demand, available output power of wind and photovoltaic units and market price are modeled by a scenario-based stochastic programming. In the presented method, scenarios are generated by a roulette wheel mechanism based on probability distribution functions of the input random variables. Through this method, the inherent stochastic nature of the proposed problem is released and the problem is decomposed into a deterministic problem. An improved multi-objective teaching–learning-based optimization is implemented to yield the best expected Pareto optimal front. In the proposed stochastic optimization method, a novel self adaptive probabilistic modification strategy is offered to improve the performance of the presented algorithm. Also, a set of non-dominated solutions are stored in a repository during the simulation process. Meanwhile, the size of the repository is controlled by usage of a fuzzy-based clustering technique. The best expected compromise solution stored in the repository is selected via the niching mechanism in a way that solutions are encouraged to seek the lesser explored regions. The proposed framework is applied in a typical grid-connected micro grid in order to verify its efficiency and feasibility.

  19. Evaluation of Resident Evacuations in Urban Rainstorm Waterlogging Disasters Based on Scenario Simulation: Daoli District (Harbin, China as an Example

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peng Chen

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available With the acceleration of urbanization, waterlogging has become an increasingly serious issue. Road waterlogging has a great influence on residents’ travel and traffic safety. Thus, evaluation of residents’ travel difficulties caused by rainstorm waterlogging disasters is of great significance for their travel safety and emergency shelter needs. This study investigated urban rainstorm waterlogging disasters, evaluating the impact of the evolution of such disasters’ evolution on residents’ evacuation, using Daoli District (Harbin, China as the research demonstration area to perform empirical research using a combination of scenario simulations, questionnaires, GIS spatial technology analysis and a hydrodynamics method to establish an urban rainstorm waterlogging numerical simulation model. The results show that under the conditions of a 10-year frequency rainstorm, there are three street sections in the study area with a high difficulty index, five street sections with medium difficulty index and the index is low at other districts, while under the conditions of a 50-year frequency rainstorm, there are five street sections with a high difficulty index, nine street sections with a medium difficulty index and the other districts all have a low index. These research results can help set the foundation for further small-scale urban rainstorm waterlogging disaster scenario simulations and emergency shelter planning as well as forecasting and warning, and provide a brand-new thought and research method for research on residents’ safe travel.

  20. Traffic Analysis and Synthetic Scenario Generation for ATM Operational Concepts Evaluation

    OpenAIRE

    Besada Portas, Juan Alberto; Portillo Garcia, Javier Ignacio; Miguel Vela, Gonzalo de; Andrea, Rafael de; Canino, Jose Miguel

    2009-01-01

    This paper describes a pair of systems which can be used to obtain realistic traffic samples in a Sector/TMA from a given real traffic database. Those are a traffic analyzer and a traffic pattern generator. These two systems allow the ATM engineer to both gain insight on the traffic structure of the area under analysis and to obtain statistically significant samples for the evaluation of operational concepts and procedure changes, perform analysis of ATM performance under traffic changes, ...

  1. The implications of renewable energy research and development: Policy scenario analysis with experience and learning effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kobos, Peter Holmes

    This dissertation analyzes the current and potential future costs of renewable energy technology from an institutional perspective. The central hypothesis is that reliable technology cost forecasting can be achieved through standard and modified experience curves implemented in a dynamic simulation model. Additionally, drawing upon region-specific institutional lessons highlights the role of market, social, and political institutions throughout an economy. Socio-political influences and government policy pathways drive resource allocation decisions that may be predominately influenced by factors other than those considered in a traditional market-driven, mechanistic approach. Learning in economic systems as a research topic is an attractive complement to the notion of institutional pathways. The economic implications of learning by doing, as first outlined by Arrow (1962), highlight decreasing production costs as individuals, or more generally the firm, become more familiar with a production process. The standard approach in the literature has been to employ a common experience curve where cumulative production is the only independent variable affecting costs. This dissertation develops a two factor experience curve, adding research, development and demonstration (RD&D) expenditures as a second variable. To illustrate the concept in the context of energy planning, two factor experience curves are developed for wind energy technology and solar photovoltaic (PV) modules under different assumptions on learning rates for cumulative capacity and the knowledge stock (a function of past RD&D efforts). Additionally, a one factor experience curve and cost trajectory scenarios are developed for concentrated solar power and geothermal energy technology, respectively. Cost forecasts are then developed for all four of these technologies in a dynamic simulation model. Combining the theoretical framework of learning by doing with the fields of organizational learning and

  2. The Relevance of Personal Integrity in Corporate Ethics: A Study based on Indian Scenario

    OpenAIRE

    Joseph, Augustine

    2015-01-01

    Corporate unethical behaviour is the result of the conflicts of interest between various corporate relations: namely, the relationship between employees and the corporation as such, the relationship among the employees, and the relationship between the corporation and its stakeholders. Corporate integrity theories are the proposed solution. There are two types of corporate integrity theories such as social contract based and civic citizenship based. Both corporate integrity theories try to cr...

  3. Problem-based scenarios with laptops: an effective combination for cross-curricular learning in mathematics, science and language

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Viktor Freiman

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Many educational systems consider using one-to-one access to the laptop as a way to improve teaching and learning. A two-year action research project on the use of laptop computers by New Brunswick (Canada grade 7 and 8 Francophone students aimed to better understand the impact of laptops on learning. Two problem-based learning (PBL interdisciplinary scenarios (math, science, language arts were implemented in eight experimental classes to measure and document students’ actual learning process, particularly in terms of their ability to scientifically investigate authentic problems, to reason mathematically, and to communicate. On-site observations, video-recording, journals, samples of students’ work, and interviews were used to collect qualitative data. Based on our findings, we argue that laptops in and of themselves may not automatically lead to better results on standardized tests, but rather create opportunities to enrich learning with more open-ended, constructive, collaborative, reflective, and cognitively complex learning tasks.

  4. Exploring an Ecologically Sustainable Scheme for Landscape Restoration of Abandoned Mine Land: Scenario-Based Simulation Integrated Linear Programming and CLUE-S Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Liping; Zhang, Shiwen; Huang, Yajie; Cao, Meng; Huang, Yuanfang; Zhang, Hongyan

    2016-01-01

    Understanding abandoned mine land (AML) changes during land reclamation is crucial for reusing damaged land resources and formulating sound ecological restoration policies. This study combines the linear programming (LP) model and the CLUE-S model to simulate land-use dynamics in the Mentougou District (Beijing, China) from 2007 to 2020 under three reclamation scenarios, that is, the planning scenario based on the general land-use plan in study area (scenario 1), maximal comprehensive benefits (scenario 2), and maximal ecosystem service value (scenario 3). Nine landscape-scale graph metrics were then selected to describe the landscape characteristics. The results show that the coupled model presented can simulate the dynamics of AML effectively and the spatially explicit transformations of AML were different. New cultivated land dominates in scenario 1, while construction land and forest land account for major percentages in scenarios 2 and 3, respectively. Scenario 3 has an advantage in most of the selected indices as the patches combined most closely. To conclude, reclaiming AML by transformation into more forest can reduce the variability and maintain the stability of the landscape ecological system in study area. These findings contribute to better mapping AML dynamics and providing policy support for the management of AML. PMID:27023575

  5. Exploring an Ecologically Sustainable Scheme for Landscape Restoration of Abandoned Mine Land: Scenario-Based Simulation Integrated Linear Programming and CLUE-S Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Liping; Zhang, Shiwen; Huang, Yajie; Cao, Meng; Huang, Yuanfang; Zhang, Hongyan

    2016-04-01

    Understanding abandoned mine land (AML) changes during land reclamation is crucial for reusing damaged land resources and formulating sound ecological restoration policies. This study combines the linear programming (LP) model and the CLUE-S model to simulate land-use dynamics in the Mentougou District (Beijing, China) from 2007 to 2020 under three reclamation scenarios, that is, the planning scenario based on the general land-use plan in study area (scenario 1), maximal comprehensive benefits (scenario 2), and maximal ecosystem service value (scenario 3). Nine landscape-scale graph metrics were then selected to describe the landscape characteristics. The results show that the coupled model presented can simulate the dynamics of AML effectively and the spatially explicit transformations of AML were different. New cultivated land dominates in scenario 1, while construction land and forest land account for major percentages in scenarios 2 and 3, respectively. Scenario 3 has an advantage in most of the selected indices as the patches combined most closely. To conclude, reclaiming AML by transformation into more forest can reduce the variability and maintain the stability of the landscape ecological system in study area. These findings contribute to better mapping AML dynamics and providing policy support for the management of AML. PMID:27023575

  6. HAZUS Analysis of a Hosgri Fault Earthquake Scenario in Support of the Diablo Canyon Power Plant Earthquake Emergency Evacuation Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    McLaren, M. K.; Nishenko, S. P.; Seligson, H.; Vardas, T.

    2011-12-01

    databases developed from San Luis Obispo County Assessor's data, updated to reflect HAZUS' current valuation model (in 2006 dollars), were incorporated. Products of the current study include a technical report, maps provided to the Evacuation Planner, and archived HAZUS study regions reflecting all data improvements and scenario analysis results, shared with San Luis Obispo County Office of Emergency Services.

  7. Analysis of liquid relief valves opening demand during pressure increase abnormal scenarios at Embalse nuclear power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Two hypothetical scenarios have been analyzed where, after an initiating event, Embalse nuclear power plant primary heat transport system could undergo a pressure increase. These abnormal events are a loss of feedwater to the steam generators and a loss of Class IV power supply with Class III restoration. This analysis focuses on primary system liquid relief valves action, specially on their opening demand. Calculation results show that even when these valves are expected to open during the transient, primary system maximum allowable pressure would not be exceeded if they failed to open. System response was also studied in case that one of these relief valves did not close once primary system pressure decreases. For the scenario of loss of feedwater to steam generators, if the degasser-condenser could not be bottled-up, Emergency Cooling Injection conditions would be reached due to a continuos loss of coolant. In case of loss of Class IV -and assuming degasser-condenser bottling-up as service water would not be available- it was observed that primary system should remain pressurized, and with core cooled by thermo siphoning mechanism. (author)

  8. Surface impedance based microwave imaging method for breast cancer screening: contrast-enhanced scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Güren, Onan; Çayören, Mehmet; Tükenmez Ergene, Lale; Akduman, Ibrahim

    2014-10-01

    A new microwave imaging method that uses microwave contrast agents is presented for the detection and localization of breast tumours. The method is based on the reconstruction of breast surface impedance through a measured scattered field. The surface impedance modelling allows for representing the electrical properties of the breasts in terms of impedance boundary conditions, which enable us to map the inner structure of the breasts into surface impedance functions. Later a simple quantitative method is proposed to screen breasts against malignant tumours where the detection procedure is based on weighted cross correlations among impedance functions. Numerical results demonstrate that the method is capable of detecting small malignancies and provides reasonable localization.

  9. Surface impedance based microwave imaging method for breast cancer screening: contrast-enhanced scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Güren, Onan; Çayören, Mehmet; Ergene, Lale Tükenmez; Akduman, Ibrahim

    2014-10-01

    A new microwave imaging method that uses microwave contrast agents is presented for the detection and localization of breast tumours. The method is based on the reconstruction of breast surface impedance through a measured scattered field. The surface impedance modelling allows for representing the electrical properties of the breasts in terms of impedance boundary conditions, which enable us to map the inner structure of the breasts into surface impedance functions. Later a simple quantitative method is proposed to screen breasts against malignant tumours where the detection procedure is based on weighted cross correlations among impedance functions. Numerical results demonstrate that the method is capable of detecting small malignancies and provides reasonable localization.

  10. New Approaches to Transport Project Assessment: Reference Scenario Forecasting and Quantitative Risk Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang

    2010-01-01

    This presentation sets out a new methodology for examining the uncertainties relating to transport decision making based on infrastructure appraisals. Traditional transport infrastructure projects are based upon cost-benefit analyses in order to appraise the projects feasibility. Recent research....... Additionally, the handling of uncertainties is supplemented by making use of the principle of Optimism Bias, which depicts the historical tendency of overestimating transport related benefits (user demands i.e. travel time savings) and underestimating investment costs....

  11. Scenario-based Requirements Elicitation in a Pain-teletreatment Application

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Widya, I.; Bults, R.G.A.; Huis in 't Veld, M.H.A.; Vollenbroek-Hutten, M.M.R.; Shishkov, B.B.; Cordeiro, J.; Ranchordas, A.

    2009-01-01

    This paper proposes a way to elicit requirements in the domain of eHealth, in particular telemedicine treatment, that is in alignment with the evidence based working practice in medicine. In collaboration with ICT developers, medical professionals co-shape the intended system, which has to support t

  12. Designing Collaborative E-Learning Environments Based upon Semantic Wiki: From Design Models to Application Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yanyan; Dong, Mingkai; Huang, Ronghuai

    2011-01-01

    The knowledge society requires life-long learning and flexible learning environment that enables fast, just-in-time and relevant learning, aiding the development of communities of knowledge, linking learners and practitioners with experts. Based upon semantic wiki, a combination of wiki and Semantic Web technology, this paper designs and develops…

  13. A model based method for evaluation of crop operation scenarios in greenhouses

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ooster, van 't A.

    2015-01-01

    Abstract This research initiated a model-based method to analyse labour in crop production systems and to quantify effects of system changes in order to contribute to effective greenhouse crop cultivation systems with efficient use of human labour and technology. This method was gra

  14. Supply Chain Simulator: A Scenario-Based Educational Tool to Enhance Student Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siddiqui, Atiq; Khan, Mehmood; Akhtar, Sohail

    2008-01-01

    Simulation-based educational products are excellent set of illustrative tools that proffer features like visualization of the dynamic behavior of a real system, etc. Such products have great efficacy in education and are known to be one of the first-rate student centered learning methodologies. These products allow students to practice skills such…

  15. Phosphorus demand for the 1970-2100 period: A scenario analysis of resource depletion

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vuuren, van D.P.; Bouwman, A.F.; Beusen, A.H.W.

    2010-01-01

    The phosphorus (P) cycle has been significantly altered by human activities. For this paper, we explored the sustainability of current P flows in terms of resource depletion and the ultimate fate of these flows. The analysis shows that rapid depletion of extractable phosphate rock is not very likely

  16. Integration of Systems Network (SysNet) tools for regional land use scenario analysis in Asia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roetter, R.P.; Hoanh, C.T.; Laborte, A.G.; Keulen, van H.; Ittersum, van M.K.; Dreiser, C.; Diepen, van C.A.; Ridder, de N.; Laar, van H.H.

    2005-01-01

    This paper introduces the approach of the Systems research Network (SysNet) for land use planning in tropical Asia with a focus on its main scientific-technical output: the development of the land use planning and analysis system (LUPAS) and its component models. These include crop simulation models

  17. Two-stage robust UC including a novel scenario-based uncertainty model for wind power applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Highlights: • Methodological framework for obtaining Robust Unit Commitment (UC) policies. • Wind-power forecast using a revisited bootstrap predictive inference approach. • Novel scenario-based model for wind-power uncertainty. • Efficient modeling framework for obtaining nearly optimal UC policies in reasonable time. • Effective incorporation of wind-power uncertainty in the UC modeling. - Abstract: The complex processes involved in the determination of the availability of power from renewable energy sources, such as wind power, impose great challenges in the forecasting processes carried out by transmission system operators (TSOs). Nowadays, many of these TSOs use operation planning tools that take into account the uncertainty of the wind-power. However, most of these methods typically require strict assumptions about the probabilistic behavior of the forecast error, and usually ignore the dynamic nature of the forecasting process. In this paper a methodological framework to obtain Robust Unit Commitment (UC) policies is presented; such methodology considers a novel scenario-based uncertainty model for wind power applications. The proposed method is composed by three main phases. The first two phases generate a sound wind-power forecast using a bootstrap predictive inference approach. The third phase corresponds to modeling and solving a one-day ahead Robust UC considering the output of the first phase. The performance of proposed approach is evaluated using as case study a new wind farm to be incorporated into the Northern Interconnected System (NIS) of Chile. A projection of wind-based power installation, as well as different characteristic of the uncertain data, are considered in this study

  18. The role of nuclear energy in long-term climate scenarios: An analysis with the World-TIMES model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    There is a revival in the nuclear debate observed in the literature. Several analyses have shown that nuclear technologies may represent very attractive options for greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions, especially in countries with high growth projections for energy demand. Our objective is to analyze the role of nuclear energy in long-term climate scenarios using the World-TIMES (The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System) bottom-up model. World-TIMES is a global model that optimizes the energy system of 15 regions over a 100-year horizon (2000-2100). We present energy and emission results for climate scenarios for two levels of CO2 concentration (450 and 550 ppmv by 2100). We analyze the penetration level of nuclear energy under various sets of assumptions on technology parameters and exogenous constraints on nuclear development to reflect social perceptions. Nuclear energy technologies satisfy a large portion of electricity production in many regions. Most regions experience an energy transition based on advanced oil and gas technologies and hydropower. Other renewable technologies might play a more important role but need further cost reductions or new regulations to penetrate the market in substantial proportions. Carbon sequestration and endogenous demand reductions for energy services are also significantly contributing to reach environmental target

  19. The role of nuclear energy in long-term climate scenarios: An analysis with the World-TIMES model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vaillancourt, Kathleen [GERAD Research Center, 3000 Chemin de la Cote-Sainte-Catherine, Montreal, Quebec, H3T 2A7 (Canada)], E-mail: kathleen.vaillancourt@gerad.ca; Labriet, Maryse [CIEMAT Research Center, Avenida Complutense 22, 28040 Madrid (Spain); Loulou, Richard [GERAD Research Center, 3000 Chemin de la Cote-Sainte-Catherine, Montreal, Quebec, H3T 2A7 (Canada); McGill University, Faculty of Management, Montreal, Quebec (Canada); Waaub, Jean-Philippe [GERAD Research Center, 3000 Chemin de la Cote-Sainte-Catherine, Montreal, Quebec, H3T 2A7 (Canada); Departement de Geographie, Universite du Quebec a Montreal, Montreal, Quebec (Canada)

    2008-07-15

    There is a revival in the nuclear debate observed in the literature. Several analyses have shown that nuclear technologies may represent very attractive options for greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions, especially in countries with high growth projections for energy demand. Our objective is to analyze the role of nuclear energy in long-term climate scenarios using the World-TIMES (The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System) bottom-up model. World-TIMES is a global model that optimizes the energy system of 15 regions over a 100-year horizon (2000-2100). We present energy and emission results for climate scenarios for two levels of CO{sub 2} concentration (450 and 550 ppmv by 2100). We analyze the penetration level of nuclear energy under various sets of assumptions on technology parameters and exogenous constraints on nuclear development to reflect social perceptions. Nuclear energy technologies satisfy a large portion of electricity production in many regions. Most regions experience an energy transition based on advanced oil and gas technologies and hydropower. Other renewable technologies might play a more important role but need further cost reductions or new regulations to penetrate the market in substantial proportions. Carbon sequestration and endogenous demand reductions for energy services are also significantly contributing to reach environmental target.

  20. On Improving the Reliability of Distribution Networks Based on Investment Scenarios Using Reference Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kawahara, Koji

    Distribution systems are inherent monopolies and therefore these have generally been regulated in order to protect customers and to ensure cost-effective operation. In the UK this is one of the functions of OFGEM (Office of Gas and Electricity Markets). Initially the regulation was based on the value of assets but there is a trend nowadays towards performance-based regulation. In order to achieve this, a methodology is needed that enables the reliability performance associated with alternative investment strategies to be compared with the investment cost of these strategies. At present there is no accepted approach for such assessments. Building on the concept of reference networks proposed in Refs. (1), (2), this paper describes how these networks can be used to assess the impact that performance driven investment strategies will have on the improvement in reliability indices. The method has been tested using the underground and overhead part of a real system.

  1. Trajectory Generation Model-Based IMM Tracking for Safe Driving in Intersection Scenario

    OpenAIRE

    Tingting Zhou; Ming Li; Xiaoming Mai; Qi Wang; Fang Liu; Qingquan Li

    2011-01-01

    Tracking the actions of vehicles at crossroads and planning safe trajectories will be an effective method to reduce the rate of traffic accident at intersections. It is to resolve the problem of the abrupt change because of the existence of drivers' voluntary choices. In this paper, we make approach of an improved IMM tracking method based on trajectory generation, abstracted by trajectory generation algorithm, to improve this situation. Because of the similarity between human-driving traject...

  2. Export Duties on Oil and Oil Products: Cancel Expediency and Scenario Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Yuri Bobylev; Georgy Idrisov; Sergey Sinelnikov-Murylev

    2012-01-01

    The existing mechanism of gaining resource rent from the national resources sale represents a way to cover inefficient mainly one economic sector – oil refining. National oil refining in the world prices has been producing negative value added for over twenty years. Present research provides analysis of the consequences, which can come from the cancellation of the export duty on oil and oil products as a necessary step to stimulate the energy efficiency of Russia’s economy and to eliminate un...

  3. Scenario analysis of tillage, residue and fertilization management effects on soil organic carbon dynamics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wang Xiaobin,; Cai Diangxiong,; Hoogmoed, W.B.; Oenema, O.; Perdok, U.D.

    2005-01-01

    Based on data from 10-year field experiments on residue/fertilizer management in the dryland farming region of northern China, Century model was used to simulate the site-specific ecosystem dynamics through adjustment of the model's parameters, and the applicability of the model to propose soil orga

  4. A Multi-agent Potential Field based bot for a Full RTS Game Scenario

    OpenAIRE

    Hagelbäck, Johan; Johansson, Stefan J.

    2009-01-01

    Computer games in general, and Real Time Strategy games in particular is a challenging task for both AI research and game AI programmers. The player, or AI bot, must use its workers to gather resources. They must be spent wisely on structures such as barracks or factories, mobile units such as soldiers, workers and tanks. The constructed units can be used to explore the game world, hunt down the enemy forces and destroy the opponent buildings. We propose a multi-agent architecture based on ar...

  5. EDGE TECHNOLOGIES IN IoT AND APPLICATION SCENARIO OF RFID BASED IoT

    OpenAIRE

    Dharam Gami *, Asst. Prof. Dhaval Nimavat, Asst. Prof. Shubham Sharma

    2016-01-01

    Internet of Things possesses the power to change the era. IoT will offer an advance connectivity between objects which will change the face of machine-to-machine communication. IoT will connect autonomous systems, devices and heterogeneous machines and make them communicate without human interactions. Many technologies will play significant role in IoT implementation. In this paper, we aim to describe the candidate of edge technologies in IoT and demonstrate how RFID based IoT system will loo...

  6. The Use of Open-Ended Problem-Based Learning Scenarios in an Interdisciplinary Biotechnology Class: Evaluation of a Problem-Based Learning Course Across Three Years

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Todd R. Steck

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Use of open-ended Problem-Based Learning (PBL in biology classrooms has been limited by the difficulty in designing problem scenarios such that the content learned in a course can be predicted and controlled, the lack of familiarity of this method of instruction by faculty, and the difficulty in assessment. Here we present the results of a study in which we developed a team-based interdisciplinary course that combined the fields of biology and civil engineering across three years. We used PBL scenarios as the only learning tool, wrote the problem scenarios, and developed the means to assess these courses and the results of that assessment. Our data indicates that PBL changed students’ perception of their learning in content knowledge and promoted a change in students’ learning styles. Although no  statistically significant improvement in problem-solving skills and critical thinking skills was observed, students reported substantial changes in their problem-based learning strategies and critical thinking skills.

  7. The use of open-ended problem-based learning scenarios in an interdisciplinary biotechnology class: evaluation of a problem-based learning course across three years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steck, Todd R; Dibiase, Warren; Wang, Chuang; Boukhtiarov, Anatoli

    2012-01-01

    Use of open-ended Problem-Based Learning (PBL) in biology classrooms has been limited by the difficulty in designing problem scenarios such that the content learned in a course can be predicted and controlled, the lack of familiarity of this method of instruction by faculty, and the difficulty in assessment. Here we present the results of a study in which we developed a team-based interdisciplinary course that combined the fields of biology and civil engineering across three years. We used PBL scenarios as the only learning tool, wrote the problem scenarios, and developed the means to assess these courses and the results of that assessment. Our data indicates that PBL changed students' perception of their learning in content knowledge and promoted a change in students' learning styles. Although no statistically significant improvement in problem-solving skills and critical thinking skills was observed, students reported substantial changes in their problem-based learning strategies and critical thinking skills. PMID:23653774

  8. Modeling fates and impacts for bio-economic analysis of hypothetical oil spill scenarios in San Francisco Bay

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    French McCay, D.; Whittier, N.; Sankaranarayanan, S.; Jennings, J. [Applied Science Associates Inc., Narragansett, RI (United States); Etkin, D.S. [Environmental Research Consulting, Winchester, MA (United States)

    2002-07-01

    The oil spill risks associated with four submerged rock pinnacles near Alcatraz Island in San Francisco Bay are being evaluated by the United States Army Corps of Engineers. Oil spill modeling has been conducted for a hypothetical oil spill to determine biological impacts, damages to natural resources and response costs. The scenarios are hypothetical vessel grounding on the pinnacles. The SIMAP modeling software by the Applied Science Associates was used to model 3 spill sizes (20, 50 and 95 percentile by volume) and 4 types of oil (gasoline, diesel, heavy fuel oil, and crude oil). The frequency distribution of oil fates and impacts was determined by first running each scenario in stochastic mode. The oil fates and biological effects of the spills were the focus of this paper. It was shown that diesel and crude oil spills would have greater impacts in the water column than heavy fuel or gasoline because gasoline is more volatile and less toxic and because heavy oil spills would be small in volume. It was determined that the major impacts and damage to birds would be low due to the high dilution potential of the bay. It was also noted that dispersants would be very effective in reducing impacts on wildlife and the shoreline. These results are being used to evaluate the cost-benefit analysis of removing the rocks versus the risk of an oil spill. The work demonstrates a statistically quantifiable method to estimate potential impacts that could be used in ecological risk assessment and cost-benefit analysis. 15 refs., 13 tabs., 11 figs.

  9. Evaluating interactive computer-based scenarios designed for learning medical technology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Persson, Johanna; Dalholm, Elisabeth Hornyánszky; Wallergård, Mattias; Johansson, Gerd

    2014-11-01

    The use of medical equipment is growing in healthcare, resulting in an increased need for resources to educate users in how to manage the various devices. Learning the practical operation of a device is one thing, but learning how to work with the device in the actual clinical context is more challenging. This paper presents a computer-based simulation prototype for learning medical technology in the context of critical care. Properties from simulation and computer games have been adopted to create a visualization-based, interactive and contextually bound tool for learning. A participatory design process, including three researchers and three practitioners from a clinic for infectious diseases, was adopted to adjust the form and content of the prototype to the needs of the clinical practice and to create a situated learning experience. An evaluation with 18 practitioners showed that practitioners were positive to this type of tool for learning and that it served as a good platform for eliciting and sharing knowledge. Our conclusion is that this type of tools can be a complement to traditional learning resources to situate the learning in a context without requiring advanced technology or being resource-demanding. PMID:24898339

  10. Evaluating interactive computer-based scenarios designed for learning medical technology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Persson, Johanna; Dalholm, Elisabeth Hornyánszky; Wallergård, Mattias; Johansson, Gerd

    2014-11-01

    The use of medical equipment is growing in healthcare, resulting in an increased need for resources to educate users in how to manage the various devices. Learning the practical operation of a device is one thing, but learning how to work with the device in the actual clinical context is more challenging. This paper presents a computer-based simulation prototype for learning medical technology in the context of critical care. Properties from simulation and computer games have been adopted to create a visualization-based, interactive and contextually bound tool for learning. A participatory design process, including three researchers and three practitioners from a clinic for infectious diseases, was adopted to adjust the form and content of the prototype to the needs of the clinical practice and to create a situated learning experience. An evaluation with 18 practitioners showed that practitioners were positive to this type of tool for learning and that it served as a good platform for eliciting and sharing knowledge. Our conclusion is that this type of tools can be a complement to traditional learning resources to situate the learning in a context without requiring advanced technology or being resource-demanding.

  11. Ray-Based Statistical Propagation Modeling for Indoor Corridor Scenarios at 15 GHz

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qi Wang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available According to the demands for fifth-generation (5G communication systems, high frequency bands (above 6 GHz need to be adopted to provide additional spectrum. This paper investigates the characteristics of indoor corridor channels at 15 GHz. Channel measurements with a vector network analyzer in two corridors were conducted. Based on a ray-optical approach, a deterministic channel model covering both antenna and propagation characteristic is presented. The channel model is evaluated by comparing simulated results of received power and root mean square delay spread with the corresponding measurements. By removing the impact of directional antennas from the transmitter and receiver, a path loss model as well as small-scale fading properties for typical corridors is presented based on the generated samples from the deterministic model. Results show that the standard deviation of path loss variation is related to the Tx height, and placing the Tx closer to the ceiling leads to a smaller fluctuation of path loss.

  12. Evaluating the impact of scenario-based high-fidelity patient simulation on academic metrics of student success.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sportsman, Susan; Schumacker, Randall E; Hamilton, Patti

    2011-01-01

    Despite the ongoing nursing shortage, nurse educators are responsible for preparing students to practice in highly complex health care systems. As nurse educators explore new learning strategies to support an increase in student admissions, they must also evaluate the impact of these strategies on the quality of the educational experience. The study reported here evaluated the impact of scenario-based, high-fidelity patient simulation used to increase student admissions in an associate degree and baccalaureate nursing program in north-central Texas upon students' sense of their own clinical competence, graduating grade point average (GPA), and performance on standardized exit examinations. These are measures commonly used by nurse educators as metrics of success. PMID:21923008

  13. Effects of fishing effort allocation scenarios on energy efficiency and profitability: an individual-based model applied to Danish fisheries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bastardie, Francois; Nielsen, J. Rasmus; Andersen, Bo Sølgaard;

    2010-01-01

    to the harbour, and (C) allocating effort towards optimising the expected area-specific profit per trip. The model is informed by data from each Danish fishing vessel >15 m after coupling its high resolution spatial and temporal effort data (VMS) with data from logbook landing declarations, sales slips, vessel...... effort allocation has actually been sub-optimal because increased profits from decreased fuel consumption and larger landings could have been obtained by applying a different spatial effort allocation. Based on recent advances in VMS and logbooks data analyses, this paper contributes to improve...... against three alternative effort allocation scenarios for the assumed fishermen's adaptation to these factors: (A) preferring nearby fishing grounds rather than distant grounds with potentially larger catches and higher values, (B) shifting to other fisheries targeting resources located closer...

  14. South African maize production scenarios for 2055 using a combined empirical and process-based model approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Estes, L.; Bradley, B.; Oppenheimer, M.; Wilcove, D.; Beukes, H.; Schulze, R. E.; Tadross, M.

    2011-12-01

    In South Africa, a semi-arid country with a diverse agricultural sector, climate change is projected to negatively impact staple crop production. Our study examines future impacts to maize, South Africa's most widely grown staple crop. Working at finer spatial resolution than previous studies, we combine the process-based DSSAT4.5 and the empirical MAXENT models to study future maize suitability. Climate scenarios were based on 9 GCMs run under SRES A2 and B1 emissions scenarios down-scaled (using self-organizing maps) to 5838 locations. Soil properties were derived from textural and compositional data linked to 26422 landforms. DSSAT was run with typical dryland planting parameters and mean projected CO2 values. MAXENT was trained using aircraft-observed distributions and monthly climatologies data derived from downscaled daily records, with future rainfall increased by 10% to simulate CO2 related water-use efficiency gains. We assessed model accuracy based on correlations between model output and a satellite-derived yield proxy (integrated NDVI), and the overlap of modeled and observed maize field distributions. DSSAT yields were linearly correlated to mean integrated NDVI (R2 = 0.38), while MAXENT's relationship was logistic. Binary suitability maps based on thresholding model outputs were slightly more accurate for MAXENT (88%) than for DSSAT (87%) when compared to current maize field distribution. We created 18 suitability maps for each model (9 GCMs X 2 SRES) using projected changes relative to historical suitability thresholds. Future maps largely agreed in eastern South Africa, but disagreed strongly in the semi-arid west. Using a 95% confidence criterion (17 models agree), MAXENT showed a 241305 km2 suitability loss relative to its modeled historical suitability, while DSSAT showed a potential loss of only 112446 km2. Even the smaller potential loss highlighted by DSSAT is uncertain, given that DSSAT's mean (across all 18 climate scenarios) projected yield

  15. UK Sugar Beet Farm Productivity Under Different Reform Scenarios: A Farm Level Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Renwick, Alan W.; Revoredo-Giha, Cesar; Reader, Mark A

    2005-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to study the effect that the imminent reform in the European Union (EU) sugar regime may have on farm productivity in the United Kingdom (UK). We perform the analysis on a sample of sugar beet farms representative of all the UK sugar beet regions. To estimate the changes in productivity, we estimate a multi-output cost function representing the cropping part of the farm, which is the component that would be mostly affected by the sugar beet reform. We use this cos...

  16. Neonatal infrared thermography imaging: Analysis of heat flux during different clinical scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abbas, Abbas K.; Heimann, Konrad; Blazek, Vladimir; Orlikowsky, Thorsten; Leonhardt, Steffen

    2012-11-01

    IntroductionAn accurate skin temperature measurement of Neonatal Infrared Thermography (NIRT) imaging requires an appropriate calibration process for compensation of external effects (e.g. variation of environmental temperature, variable air velocity or humidity). Although modern infrared cameras can perform such calibration, an additional compensation is required for highly accurate thermography. This compensation which corrects any temperature drift should occur during the NIRT imaging process. We introduce a compensation technique which is based on modeling the physical interactions within the measurement scene and derived the detected temperature signal of the object. Materials and methodsIn this work such compensation was performed for different NIRT imaging application in neonatology (e.g. convective incubators, kangaroo mother care (KMC), and an open radiant warmer). The spatially distributed temperatures of 12 preterm infants (average gestation age 31 weeks) were measured under these different infant care arrangements (i.e. closed care system like a convective incubator, and open care system like kangaroo mother care, and open radiant warmer). ResultsAs errors in measurement of temperature were anticipated, a novel compensation method derived from infrared thermography of the neonate's skin was developed. Moreover, the differences in temperature recording for the 12 preterm infants varied from subject to subject. This variation could be arising from individual experimental setting applied to the same region of interest over the neonate's body. The experimental results for the model-based corrections is verified over the selected patient group. ConclusionThe proposed technique relies on applying model-based correction to the measured temperature and reducing extraneous errors during NIRT. This application specific method is based on different heat flux compartments present in neonatal thermography scene. Furthermore, these results are considered to be

  17. Dissolved oxygen analysis, TMDL model comparison, and particulate matter shunting—Preliminary results from three model scenarios for the Klamath River upstream of Keno Dam, Oregon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sullivan, Annett B.; Rounds, Stewart A.; Deas, Michael L.; Sogutlugil, I. Ertugrul

    2012-01-01

    Efforts are underway to identify actions that would improve water quality in the Link River to Keno Dam reach of the Upper Klamath River in south-central Oregon. To provide further insight into water-quality improvement options, three scenarios were developed, run, and analyzed using previously calibrated CE-QUAL-W2 hydrodynamic and water-quality models. Additional scenarios are under development as part of this ongoing study. Most of these scenarios evaluate changes relative to a "current conditions" model, but in some cases a "natural conditions" model was used that simulated the reach without the effect of point and nonpoint sources and set Upper Klamath Lake at its Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) targets. These scenarios were simulated using a model developed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and Watercourse Engineering, Inc. for the years 2006–09, referred to here as the "USGS model." Another model of the reach was developed by Tetra Tech, Inc. for years 2000 and 2002 to support the Klamath River TMDL process; that model is referred to here as the "TMDL model." The three scenarios described in this report included (1) an analysis of whether this reach of the Upper Klamath River would be in compliance with dissolved oxygen standards if sources met TMDL allocations, (2) an application of more recent datasets to the TMDL model with comparison to results from the USGS model, and (3) an examination of the effect on dissolved oxygen in the Klamath River if particulate material were stopped from entering Klamath Project diversion canals. Updates and modifications to the USGS model are in progress, so in the future these scenarios will be reanalyzed with the updated model and the interim results presented here will be superseded. Significant findings from this phase of the investigation include: * The TMDL analysis used depth-averaged dissolved oxygen concentrations from model output for comparison with dissolved oxygen standards. The Oregon dissolved oxygen

  18. Analysis of Spent Fuel Characteristics in Different Scenarios of Closing the Nuclear Fuel Cycle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Calculation analysis of the isotope and radiation-migration characteristics of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) in the open fuel cycle of thermal reactor VVER-1000 and in closed cycle of fast reactor with lead-bismuth coolant has been fulfilled. Effects of including an accelerator-driven system (ADS) into the system for transmutation of minor actinides (MA) into the cycles studied on the SNF characteristics has been reviewed. The application of ADS-burner of MA symbiotically with operating VVER-1000 reactors has been shown to decrease the high-level wastes’ activity approximately 20 times within the interval from the end of cooling in reactor to 105 years; in this case the principle of radiation-migration balance of activity in the underground burial for ~500 years is met as well. The calculation analysis gives grounds to conclude that the use of ADS for burning minor actinides in closed fuel cycle of fast reactors with lead-bismuth coolant, where U, Pu, and MA are recycled, with natural uranium as a makeup fuel, does not provide any special advantages in terms of radiation and migration characteristics of spent fuel and its wastes. (author)

  19. Analytical Framework for End-to-End Delay Based on Unidirectional Highway Scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aslinda Hassan

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available In a sparse vehicular ad hoc network, a vehicle normally employs a carry and forward approach, where it holds the message it wants to transmit until the vehicle meets other vehicles or roadside units. A number of analyses in the literature have been done to investigate the time delay when packets are being carried by vehicles on both unidirectional and bidirectional highways. However, these analyses are focusing on the delay between either two disconnected vehicles or two disconnected vehicle clusters. Furthermore, majority of the analyses only concentrate on the expected value of the end-to-end delay when the carry and forward approach is used. Using regression analysis, we establish the distribution model for the time delay between two disconnected vehicle clusters as an exponential distribution. Consequently, a distribution is newly derived to represent the number of clusters on a highway using a vehicular traffic model. From there, we are able to formulate end-to-end delay model which extends the time delay model for two disconnected vehicle clusters to multiple disconnected clusters on a unidirectional highway. The analytical results obtained from the analytical model are then validated through simulation results.

  20. 情景环境与人为差错的对应关系分析方法%Method for correlation analysis between scenario and human error

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    蒋英杰; 孙志强; 宫二玲; 谢红卫

    2011-01-01

    A new method is proposed to analyze the correlation between scenario and human error. The scenario is decomposed into six aspects, which are operator, machine, task, organization, environment and assistant devices. Based on the scenario decomposition, a taxonomy of performance shaping factor is constructed, which includes thirty-eight items and can provide a reference template for the investigation of human error causes. Based on the skill-based, rule-based and knowledge-based (SRK) model, the slip/lapse/mistake framework is introduced to classify human errors, which are categorized as skill-based slip and lapse, rule-based slip and mistake, and knowledge-based mistake. Grey relational analysis is introduced to analyze the correlation between performance shaping factors and human error types, in which the correlations of "consequent-antecedent" and "antecedent-consequent" are both analyzed. By this method, performance shaping factors related to some specified human error type and human error types caused by some specified performance shaping factor both can be sorted according to their correlation degrees. A case study is provided, which shows that the proposed method is applicable in analyzing the correlation between scenario and human error, and can provide some important implications for human error prediction and human error reduction.%提出了一种分析情景环境与人为差错之间对应关系的方法.将情景环境分为操作者、机器、任务、组织、环境和辅助系统6个方面,建立了包含38个元素的行为形成因子分类方法,为人为差错成因的查找提供了参考模板.在SRK(skill-based,rule-based and knowledge-based)模型的基础上引入疏忽/遗忘/错误分类框架,将人为差错分为技能型疏忽、技能型遗忘、规则型疏忽、规则型错误以及知识型错误等5种基本的人为差错类型.使用灰色关联分析方法,从“结果-原因”和“原因-结果”两个方向分析行为形