WorldWideScience

Sample records for based risk adjusters

  1. Risk-based surveillance: Estimating the effect of unwarranted confounder adjustment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Willeberg, Preben; Nielsen, Liza Rosenbaum; Salman, Mo

    2011-01-01

    We estimated the effects of confounder adjustment as a part of the underlying quantitative risk assessments on the performance of a hypothetical example of a risk-based surveillance system, in which a single risk factor would be used to identify high risk sampling units for testing. The differences...... between estimates of surveillance system performance with and without unwarranted confounder adjustment were shown to be of both numerical and economical significance. Analytical procedures applied to multiple risk factor datasets which yield confounder-adjusted risk estimates should be carefully...... considered for their appropriateness, if the risk estimates are to be used for informing risk-based surveillance systems....

  2. A risk-adjusted CUSUM in continuous time based on the Cox model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biswas, Pinaki; Kalbfleisch, John D

    2008-07-30

    In clinical practice, it is often important to monitor the outcomes associated with participating facilities. In organ transplantation, for example, it is important to monitor and assess the outcomes of the transplants performed at the participating centers and send a signal if a significant upward trend in the failure rates is detected. In manufacturing and process control contexts, the cumulative summation (CUSUM) technique has been used as a sequential monitoring scheme for some time. More recently, the CUSUM has also been suggested for use in medical contexts. In this article, we outline a risk-adjusted CUSUM procedure based on the Cox model for a failure time outcome. Theoretical approximations to the average run length are obtained for this new proposal and for some discrete time procedures suggested in the literature. The proposed scheme and approximations are evaluated in simulations and illustrated on transplant facility data from the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients.

  3. 12 CFR Appendix B to Part 3 - Risk-Based Capital Guidelines; Market Risk Adjustment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    .... Section 2. Definitions For purposes of this appendix, the following definitions apply: (a) Covered...-zero specific risk capital charge. (A) For covered debt positions that are derivatives, a bank must... (including derivatives) in identical debt issues or indices. (iii) A bank must multiply the absolute value...

  4. Risk adjustment methods for Home Care Quality Indicators (HCQIs based on the minimum data set for home care

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hirdes John P

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background There has been increasing interest in enhancing accountability in health care. As such, several methods have been developed to compare the quality of home care services. These comparisons can be problematic if client populations vary across providers and no adjustment is made to account for these differences. The current paper explores the effects of risk adjustment for a set of home care quality indicators (HCQIs based on the Minimum Data Set for Home Care (MDS-HC. Methods A total of 22 home care providers in Ontario and the Winnipeg Regional Health Authority (WRHA in Manitoba, Canada, gathered data on their clients using the MDS-HC. These assessment data were used to generate HCQIs for each agency and for the two regions. Three types of risk adjustment methods were contrasted: a client covariates only; b client covariates plus an "Agency Intake Profile" (AIP to adjust for ascertainment and selection bias by the agency; and c client covariates plus the intake Case Mix Index (CMI. Results The mean age and gender distribution in the two populations was very similar. Across the 19 risk-adjusted HCQIs, Ontario CCACs had a significantly higher AIP adjustment value for eight HCQIs, indicating a greater propensity to trigger on these quality issues on admission. On average, Ontario had unadjusted rates that were 0.3% higher than the WRHA. Following risk adjustment with the AIP covariate, Ontario rates were, on average, 1.5% lower than the WRHA. In the WRHA, individual agencies were likely to experience a decline in their standing, whereby they were more likely to be ranked among the worst performers following risk adjustment. The opposite was true for sites in Ontario. Conclusions Risk adjustment is essential when comparing quality of care across providers when home care agencies provide services to populations with different characteristics. While such adjustment had a relatively small effect for the two regions, it did

  5. Evaluating the Investment Benefit of Multinational Enterprises' International Projects Based on Risk Adjustment: Evidence from China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Chong

    2016-01-01

    This study examines the international risks faced by multinational enterprises to understand their impact on the evaluation of investment projects. Moreover, it establishes a 'three-dimensional' theoretical framework of risk identification to analyse the composition of international risk indicators of multinational enterprises based on the theory…

  6. Evaluating the Investment Benefit of Multinational Enterprises' International Projects Based on Risk Adjustment: Evidence from China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Chong

    2016-01-01

    This study examines the international risks faced by multinational enterprises to understand their impact on the evaluation of investment projects. Moreover, it establishes a 'three-dimensional' theoretical framework of risk identification to analyse the composition of international risk indicators of multinational enterprises based on the theory…

  7. Scalability of a Methodology for Generating Technical Trading Rules with GAPs Based on Risk-Return Adjustment and Incremental Training

    Science.gov (United States)

    de La Cal, E. A.; Fernández, E. M.; Quiroga, R.; Villar, J. R.; Sedano, J.

    In previous works a methodology was defined, based on the design of a genetic algorithm GAP and an incremental training technique adapted to the learning of series of stock market values. The GAP technique consists in a fusion of GP and GA. The GAP algorithm implements the automatic search for crisp trading rules taking as objectives of the training both the optimization of the return obtained and the minimization of the assumed risk. Applying the proposed methodology, rules have been obtained for a period of eight years of the S&P500 index. The achieved adjustment of the relation return-risk has generated rules with returns very superior in the testing period to those obtained applying habitual methodologies and even clearly superior to Buy&Hold. This work probes that the proposed methodology is valid for different assets in a different market than previous work.

  8. Adjusting Population Risk for Functional Health Status.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuller, Richard L; Hughes, John S; Goldfield, Norbert I

    2016-04-01

    Risk adjustment accounts for differences in population mix by reducing the likelihood of enrollee selection by managed care plans and providing a correction to otherwise biased reporting of provider or plan performance. Functional health status is not routinely included within risk-adjustment methods, but is believed by many to be a significant enhancement to risk adjustment for complex enrollees and patients. In this analysis a standardized measure of functional health was created using 3 different source functional assessment instruments submitted to the Medicare program on condition of payment. The authors use a 5% development sample of Medicare claims from 2006 and 2007, including functional health assessments, and develop a model of functional health classification comprising 9 groups defined by the interaction of self-care, mobility, incontinence, and cognitive impairment. The 9 functional groups were used to augment Clinical Risk Groups, a diagnosis-based patient classification system, and when using a validation set of 100% of Medicare data for 2010 and 2011, this study found the use of the functional health module to improve the fit of observed enrollee cost, measured by the R(2) statistic, by 5% across all Medicare enrollees. The authors observed complex nonlinear interactions across functional health domains when constructing the model and caution that functional health status needs careful handling when used for risk adjustment. The addition of functional health status within existing risk-adjustment models has the potential to improve equitable resource allocation in the financing of care costs for more complex enrollees if handled appropriately. (Population Health Management 2016;19:136-144).

  9. Risk-adjusted monitoring of survival times

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sego, Landon H.; Reynolds, Marion R.; Woodall, William H.

    2009-02-26

    We consider the monitoring of clinical outcomes, where each patient has a di®erent risk of death prior to undergoing a health care procedure.We propose a risk-adjusted survival time CUSUM chart (RAST CUSUM) for monitoring clinical outcomes where the primary endpoint is a continuous, time-to-event variable that may be right censored. Risk adjustment is accomplished using accelerated failure time regression models. We compare the average run length performance of the RAST CUSUM chart to the risk-adjusted Bernoulli CUSUM chart, using data from cardiac surgeries to motivate the details of the comparison. The comparisons show that the RAST CUSUM chart is more efficient at detecting a sudden decrease in the odds of death than the risk-adjusted Bernoulli CUSUM chart, especially when the fraction of censored observations is not too high. We also discuss the implementation of a prospective monitoring scheme using the RAST CUSUM chart.

  10. Burden of typhoid fever in low-income and middle-income countries: a systematic, literature-based update with risk-factor adjustment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mogasale, Vittal; Maskery, Brian; Ochiai, R Leon; Lee, Jung Seok; Mogasale, Vijayalaxmi V; Ramani, Enusa; Kim, Young Eun; Park, Jin Kyung; Wierzba, Thomas F

    2014-10-01

    No access to safe water is an important risk factor for typhoid fever, yet risk-level heterogeneity is unaccounted for in previous global burden estimates. Since WHO has recommended risk-based use of typhoid polysaccharide vaccine, we revisited the burden of typhoid fever in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) after adjusting for water-related risk. We estimated the typhoid disease burden from studies done in LMICs based on blood-culture-confirmed incidence rates applied to the 2010 population, after correcting for operational issues related to surveillance, limitations of diagnostic tests, and water-related risk. We derived incidence estimates, correction factors, and mortality estimates from systematic literature reviews. We did scenario analyses for risk factors, diagnostic sensitivity, and case fatality rates, accounting for the uncertainty in these estimates and we compared them with previous disease burden estimates. The estimated number of typhoid fever cases in LMICs in 2010 after adjusting for water-related risk was 11·9 million (95% CI 9·9-14·7) cases with 129 000 (75 000-208 000) deaths. By comparison, the estimated risk-unadjusted burden was 20·6 million (17·5-24·2) cases and 223 000 (131 000-344 000) deaths. Scenario analyses indicated that the risk-factor adjustment and updated diagnostic test correction factor derived from systematic literature reviews were the drivers of differences between the current estimate and past estimates. The risk-adjusted typhoid fever burden estimate was more conservative than previous estimates. However, by distinguishing the risk differences, it will allow assessment of the effect at the population level and will facilitate cost-effectiveness calculations for risk-based vaccination strategies for future typhoid conjugate vaccine. Copyright © 2014 Mogasale et al. Open Access article distributed under the terms of CC BY-NC-SA. Published by .. All rights reserved.

  11. The Impact of Paradoxical Comorbidities on Risk-Adjusted...

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — Persistent uncertainty remains regarding assessments of patient comorbidity based on administrative data for mortality risk adjustment. Some models include comorbid...

  12. Risk-Adjusted Mortality: Problems and Possibilities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Shine

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The ratio of observed-to-expected deaths is considered a measure of hospital quality and for this reason will soon become a basis for payment. However, there are drivers of that metric more potent than quality: most important are medical documentation and patient acuity. If hositals underdocument and therefore do not capture the full “expected mortality” they may be tempted to lower their observed/expected ratio by reducing “observed mortality” through limiting access to the very ill. Underdocumentation occurs because hospitals do not recognize, and therefore cannot seek to confirm, specific comorbidities conferring high mortality risk. To help hospitals identify these comorbidities, this paper describes an easily implemented spread-sheet for evaluating comorbid conditions associated, in any particular hospital, with each discharge. This method identifies comorbidities that increase in frequency as mortality risk increases within each diagnostic grouping. The method is inductive and therefore independent of any particular risk-adjustment technique.

  13. A Machine Learning Framework for Plan Payment Risk Adjustment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rose, Sherri

    2016-12-01

    To introduce cross-validation and a nonparametric machine learning framework for plan payment risk adjustment and then assess whether they have the potential to improve risk adjustment. 2011-2012 Truven MarketScan database. We compare the performance of multiple statistical approaches within a broad machine learning framework for estimation of risk adjustment formulas. Total annual expenditure was predicted using age, sex, geography, inpatient diagnoses, and hierarchical condition category variables. The methods included regression, penalized regression, decision trees, neural networks, and an ensemble super learner, all in concert with screening algorithms that reduce the set of variables considered. The performance of these methods was compared based on cross-validated R(2) . Our results indicate that a simplified risk adjustment formula selected via this nonparametric framework maintains much of the efficiency of a traditional larger formula. The ensemble approach also outperformed classical regression and all other algorithms studied. The implementation of cross-validated machine learning techniques provides novel insight into risk adjustment estimation, possibly allowing for a simplified formula, thereby reducing incentives for increased coding intensity as well as the ability of insurers to "game" the system with aggressive diagnostic upcoding. © Health Research and Educational Trust.

  14. FDG PET/CT diagnostic criteria may need adjustment based on MRI to estimate the presurgical risk of extrapelvic infiltration in patients with uterine endometrial cancer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sudo, Satoko; Sakuragi, Noriaki [Hokkaido University Graduate School of Medicine, Department of Gynecology, Sapporo (Japan); Hattori, Naoya; Manabe, Osamu; Hirata, Kenji; Tamaki, Nagara [Hokkaido University Graduate School of Medicine, Department of Nuclear Medicine, Kitaku, Sapporo (Japan); Kato, Fumi; Mimura, Rie; Magota, Keiichi; Sugimori, Hiroyuki [Hokkaido University Graduate School of Medicine, Department of Diagnostic and Interventional Radiology, Sapporo (Japan)

    2015-04-01

    The staging of endometrial cancer requires surgery which carries the risk of morbidity. FDG PET/CT combined with anatomical imaging may reduce the number of unnecessary lymphadenectomies by demonstrating the risk of extrapelvic infiltration. The purpose of this study was to optimize FDG PET/CT diagnostic criteria for risk assessment in endometrial cancer after first-line risk triage with MRI. The study population comprised 37 patients who underwent curative surgery for the treatment of endometrial cancer. First, the risk of extrapelvic infiltration was triaged using MRI. Second, multiple glucose metabolic profiles of the primary lesion were assessed with FDG PET/CT, and these were correlated with the histopathological risk of extrapelvic infiltration including lymphovascular space invasion (LVSI) and high-grade malignancy (grades 2 and 3). The results of histological correlation were used to adjust FDG PET/CT diagnostic criteria. Presurgical assessment using MRI was positive for deep (>50 %) myometrial invasion in 17 patients. The optimal FDG PET/CT diagnostic criteria vary depending on the results of MRI. Specifically, SUVmax (≥16.0) was used to indicate LVSI risk with an overall diagnostic accuracy of 88.2 % in patients with MRI findings showing myometrial invasion. High-grade malignancy did not correlate with any of metabolic profiles in this patient group. In the remaining patients without myometrial invasion, lesion glycolysis (LG) or metabolic volume were better indicators of LVSI than SUVmax with the same diagnostic accuracy of 80.0 %. In addition, LG (≥26.9) predicted high-grade malignancy with an accuracy of 72.2 %. Using the optimized cut-off criteria for LVSI, glucose metabolic profiling of primary lesions correctly predicted lymph node metastasis with an accuracy of 73.0 %, which was comparable with the accuracy of visual assessment for lymph node metastasis using MRI and FDG PET/CT. FDG PET/CT diagnostic criteria may need adjustment based on the

  15. Competition Leverage : How the Demand Side Affects Optimal Risk Adjustment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bijlsma, M.; Boone, J.; Zwart, G.

    2011-01-01

    We study optimal risk adjustment in imperfectly competitive health insurance markets when high-risk consumers are less likely to switch insurer than low-risk consumers. First, we find that insurers still have an incentive to select even if risk adjustment perfectly corrects for cost differences amon

  16. Risk-Adjusted Control Charts for Health Care Monitoring

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Willem Albers

    2011-01-01

    the distribution involved is negative binomial. However, in health care monitoring, (groups of patients will often belong to different risk categories. In the present paper, we will show how information about category membership can be used to adjust the basic negative binomial charts to the actual risk incurred. Attention is also devoted to comparing such conditional charts to their unconditional counterparts. The latter do take possible heterogeneity into account but refrain from risk-adjustment. Note that in the risk adjusted case several parameters are involved, which will all be typically unknown. Hence, the potentially considerable estimation effects of the new charts will be investigated as well.

  17. Risk adjustment for inter-hospital comparison of caesarean delivery rates in low-risk deliveries.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elisa Stivanello

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Caesarean delivery (CD rates have been frequently used as quality measures for maternity service comparisons. More recently, primary CD rates (CD in women without previous CD or CD rates within selected categories such as nulliparous, term, cephalic singleton deliveries (NTCS have been used. The objective of this study is to determine the extent to which risk adjustment for clinical and socio-demographic variables is needed for inter-hospital comparisons of CD rates in women without previous CD and in NTCS deliveries. METHODS: Hospital discharge records of women who delivered in Emilia-Romagna Region (Italy from January, 2007 to June 2009 and in Tuscany Region for year 2009 were linked with birth certificates. Adjusted RRs of CD in women without a previous Caesarean and NTCS were estimated using Poisson regression. Percentage differences in RR before and after adjustment were calculated and hospital rankings, based on crude and adjusted RRs, were examined. RESULTS: Adjusted RR differed substantially from crude RR in women without a previous Caesarean and only marginally in NTCS group. Hospital ranking was markedly affected by adjustment in women without a previous CD, but less in NTCS. CONCLUSION: Risk adjustment is warranted for inter-hospital comparisons of primary CD rates but not for NTCS CD rates. Crude NTCS CD rates are a reliable estimate of adjusted NTCS CD.

  18. ACA Risk Adjustment - Overview, Context, and Challenges

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — Volume 4, Issue 3 of the Medicare and Medicaid Research Review includes three articles describing the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) developed risk...

  19. ACA Risk Adjustment - Overview, Context, and Challenges

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — Volume 4, Issue 3 of the Medicare and Medicaid Research Review includes three articles describing the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) developed risk...

  20. Medicare's risk-adjusted capitation method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grimaldi, Paul L

    2002-01-01

    Since 1997, the method to establish capitation rates for Medicare beneficiaries who are members of risk-bearing managed care plans has undergone several important developments. This includes the factoring of beneficiary health status into the rate-setting calculations. These changes were expected to increase the number of participating health plans, accelerate Medicare enrollment growth, and slice Medicare spending.

  1. Children's Adjustment Following Divorce: Risk and Resilience Perspectives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelly, Joan B.; Emery, Robert E.

    2003-01-01

    Reviews the empirical literature on the longer-term adjustment of children of divorce from the perspective of (a) the stressors and elevated risks that divorce presents for children and (b) protective factors associated with better adjustment. The resiliency demonstrated by the majority of children is discussed, as are controversies regarding the…

  2. Do insurers respond to risk adjustment? A long-term, nationwide analysis from Switzerland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    von Wyl, Viktor; Beck, Konstantin

    2016-03-01

    Community rating in social health insurance calls for risk adjustment in order to eliminate incentives for risk selection. Swiss risk adjustment is known to be insufficient, and substantial risk selection incentives remain. This study develops five indicators to monitor residual risk selection. Three indicators target activities of conglomerates of insurers (with the same ownership), which steer enrollees into specific carriers based on applicants' risk profiles. As a proxy for their market power, those indicators estimate the amount of premium-, health care cost-, and risk-adjustment transfer variability that is attributable to conglomerates. Two additional indicators, derived from linear regression, describe the amount of residual cost differences between insurers that are not covered by risk adjustment. All indicators measuring conglomerate-based risk selection activities showed increases between 1996 and 2009, paralleling the establishment of new conglomerates. At their maxima in 2009, the indicator values imply that 56% of the net risk adjustment volume, 34% of premium variability, and 51% cost variability in the market were attributable to conglomerates. From 2010 onwards, all indicators decreased, coinciding with a pre-announced risk adjustment reform implemented in 2012. Likewise, the regression-based indicators suggest that the volume and variance of residual cost differences between insurers that are not equaled out by risk adjustment have decreased markedly since 2009 as a result of the latest reform. Our analysis demonstrates that risk-selection, especially by conglomerates, is a real phenomenon in Switzerland. However, insurers seem to have reduced risk selection activities to optimize their losses and gains from the latest risk adjustment reform.

  3. The high-density lipoprotein-adjusted SCORE model worsens SCORE-based risk classification in a contemporary population of 30 824 Europeans

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mortensen, Martin B; Afzal, Shoaib; Nordestgaard, Børge G

    2015-01-01

    AIMS: Recent European guidelines recommend to include high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol in risk assessment for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD), using a SCORE-based risk model (SCORE-HDL). We compared the predictive performance of SCORE-HDL with SCORE in an independent......, contemporary, 'low-risk' European population, focusing on ability to identify those in need of intensified CVD prevention. METHODS AND RESULTS: Between 2003 and 2008, 46,092 individuals without CVD, diabetes, or statin use were enrolled in the Copenhagen General Population Study (CGPS). During a mean of 6.......8 years of follow-up, 339 individuals died of CVD. In the SCORE target population (age 40-65; n = 30,824), fewer individuals were at baseline categorized as high risk (≥5% 10-year risk of fatal CVD) using SCORE-HDL compared with SCORE (10 vs. 17% in men, 1 vs. 3% in women). SCORE-HDL did not improve...

  4. The relationship between effectiveness and costs measured by a risk-adjusted case-mix system: multicentre study of Catalonian population data bases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Flor-Serra Ferran

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The main objective of this study is to measure the relationship between morbidity, direct health care costs and the degree of clinical effectiveness (resolution of health centres and health professionals by the retrospective application of Adjusted Clinical Groups in a Spanish population setting. The secondary objectives are to determine the factors determining inadequate correlations and the opinion of health professionals on these instruments. Methods/Design We will carry out a multi-centre, retrospective study using patient records from 15 primary health care centres and population data bases. The main measurements will be: general variables (age and sex, centre, service [family medicine, paediatrics], and medical unit, dependent variables (mean number of visits, episodes and direct costs, co-morbidity (Johns Hopkins University Adjusted Clinical Groups Case-Mix System and effectiveness. The totality of centres/patients will be considered as the standard for comparison. The efficiency index for visits, tests (laboratory, radiology, others, referrals, pharmaceutical prescriptions and total will be calculated as the ratio: observed variables/variables expected by indirect standardization. The model of cost/patient/year will differentiate fixed/semi-fixed (visits costs of the variables for each patient attended/year (N = 350,000 inhabitants. The mean relative weights of the cost of care will be obtained. The effectiveness will be measured using a set of 50 indicators of process, efficiency and/or health results, and an adjusted synthetic index will be constructed (method: percentile 50. The correlation between the efficiency (relative-weights and synthetic (by centre and physician indices will be established using the coefficient of determination. The opinion/degree of acceptance of physicians (N = 1,000 will be measured using a structured questionnaire including various dimensions. Statistical analysis: multiple regression

  5. A note on risk adjustment and fair compensation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shmueli, A

    2000-09-01

    This note comments on the application of results from the theory of fair compensation to risk adjustment. It argues that the main flaw of such application lies in the consideration of health plans merely as administrative social agents, through which money flows from a central fund to providers of medical care, ignoring their economic behaviour. However, it is that behaviour which raises the issue of risk selection to begin with. With linear health expenditure function, the fair compensation axiomatic solution is shown to be equivalent to the solution of a simple optimal regulation problem. That equivalence permits the analysis of several further issues related to risk adjustment and to the application of the theory of fair compensation to it.

  6. Spatial implications of covariate adjustment on patterns of risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sabel, Clive Eric; Wilson, Jeff Gaines; Kingham, Simon

    2007-01-01

    Epidemiological studies that examine the relationship between environmental exposures and health often address other determinants of health that may influence the relationship being studied by adjusting for these factors as covariates. While disease surveillance methods routinely control for cova......Epidemiological studies that examine the relationship between environmental exposures and health often address other determinants of health that may influence the relationship being studied by adjusting for these factors as covariates. While disease surveillance methods routinely control......), then for a deprivation index, and finally for both PM10 and deprivation. Spatial patterns of risk, disease clusters and cold and hot spots were generated using a spatial scan statistic and a Getis-Ord Gi* statistic. In all disease groups tested (except the control disease), adjustment for chronic PM10 exposure...... area to a mixed residential/industrial area, possibly introducing new environmental exposures. Researchers should be aware of the potential spatial effects inherent in adjusting for covariates when considering study design and interpreting results. © 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved....

  7. Gaming in risk-adjusted mortality rates: effect of misclassification of risk factors in the benchmarking of cardiac surgery risk-adjusted mortality rates

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Siregar, S.; Groenwold, R.H.; Versteegh, M.I.; Noyez, L.; Burg, W.J.P.P. ter; Bots, M.L.; Graaf, Y. van der; Herwerden, L.A. van

    2013-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: Upcoding or undercoding of risk factors could affect the benchmarking of risk-adjusted mortality rates. The aim was to investigate the effect of misclassification of risk factors on the benchmarking of mortality rates after cardiac surgery. METHODS: A prospective cohort was used comprisin

  8. Measurement Of Shariah Stock Performance Using Risk Adjusted Performance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zuhairan Y Yunan

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this research is to analyze the shariah stock performance using risk adjusted performance method. There are three parameters to measure the stock performance i.e. Sharpe, Treynor, and Jensen. This performance’s measurements calculate the return and risk factor from shariah stocks. The data that used on this research is using the data of stocks at Jakarta Islamic Index. Sampling method that used on this paper is purposive sampling. This research is using ten companies as a sample. The result shows that from three parameters, the stock that have a best performance are AALI, ANTM, ASII, CPIN, INDF, KLBF, LSIP, and UNTR.DOI: 10.15408/aiq.v7i1.1364

  9. 48 CFR 215.404-71-3 - Contract type risk and working capital adjustment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... normal value when the contract type risk is low. Indicators of this are— (i) Very mature product line... paragraph (c) of this subsection using the evaluation criteria in paragraph (d) of this subsection. (2... provisions for performance-based payments, do not compute a working capital adjustment. (d)...

  10. Dynamic probability control limits for risk-adjusted Bernoulli CUSUM charts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xiang; Woodall, William H

    2015-11-10

    The risk-adjusted Bernoulli cumulative sum (CUSUM) chart developed by Steiner et al. (2000) is an increasingly popular tool for monitoring clinical and surgical performance. In practice, however, the use of a fixed control limit for the chart leads to a quite variable in-control average run length performance for patient populations with different risk score distributions. To overcome this problem, we determine simulation-based dynamic probability control limits (DPCLs) patient-by-patient for the risk-adjusted Bernoulli CUSUM charts. By maintaining the probability of a false alarm at a constant level conditional on no false alarm for previous observations, our risk-adjusted CUSUM charts with DPCLs have consistent in-control performance at the desired level with approximately geometrically distributed run lengths. Our simulation results demonstrate that our method does not rely on any information or assumptions about the patients' risk distributions. The use of DPCLs for risk-adjusted Bernoulli CUSUM charts allows each chart to be designed for the corresponding particular sequence of patients for a surgeon or hospital.

  11. Intimate relationships, individual adjustment, and coronary heart disease: Implications of overlapping associations in psychosocial risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Timothy W; Baucom, Brian R W

    2017-09-01

    Being married or involved in a similar intimate relationship is associated with reduced risk of coronary heart disease (CHD). However, the quality of these relationships matters, as strain and disruption are associated with increased risk. These effects are typically studied separately from well-established psychosocial factors for CHD that are aspects of personality and emotional adjustment, even though discord and disruption in intimate relationships are related to these same individual characteristics. Thus, research to date tends to parse correlated risks, often taking a piecemeal approach by focusing on intimate relationships without considering aspects of personality and emotional adjustment that contribute to risk and protection, or focusing on individual-level risks while largely ignoring closely related health-relevant relationships. As an alternative, this article describes an integrative approach, first reviewing associations of the quality of intimate relationships with personality characteristics and aspects of emotional adjustment that confer CHD risk, and then discussing conceptual models of these associations and the biobehavioral mechanisms linking them with CHD. Current approaches to couple interventions are then discussed, including those that have a combined focus on intimate relationship difficulties and emotional adjustment. An integrative agenda for future research emphasizes aggregated risks, combining concepts and methods in current relationship science with those in biobehavioral research on CHD, and including parallel disparities in relationship functioning, emotional adjustment, and CHD risk. Such efforts could ultimately inform empirically based assessments and interventions for interrelated aspects of individuals and their intimate relationships that influence the development and course of CHD. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  12. Risk adjustment for inter-hospital comparison of primary cesarean section rates: need, validity and parsimony

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dallolio Laura

    2006-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Cesarean section rates is often used as an indicator of quality of care in maternity hospitals. The assumption is that lower rates reflect in developed countries more appropriate clinical practice and general better performances. Hospitals are thus often ranked on the basis of caesarean section rates. The aim of this study is to assess whether the adjustment for clinical and sociodemographic variables of the mother and the fetus is necessary for inter-hospital comparisons of cesarean section (c-section rates and to assess whether a risk adjustment model based on a limited number of variables could be identified and used. Methods Discharge abstracts of labouring women without prior cesarean were linked with abstracts of newborns discharged from 29 hospitals of the Emilia-Romagna Region (Italy from 2003 to 2004. Adjusted ORs of cesarean by hospital were estimated by using two logistic regression models: 1 a full model including the potential confounders selected by a backward procedure; 2 a parsimonious model including only actual confounders identified by the "change-in-estimate" procedure. Hospital rankings, based on ORs were examined. Results 24 risk factors for c-section were included in the full model and 7 (marital status, maternal age, infant weight, fetopelvic disproportion, eclampsia or pre-eclampsia, placenta previa/abruptio placentae, malposition/malpresentation in the parsimonious model. Hospital ranking using the adjusted ORs from both models was different from that obtained using the crude ORs. The correlation between the rankings of the two models was 0.92. The crude ORs were smaller than ORs adjusted by both models, with the parsimonious ones producing more precise estimates. Conclusion Risk adjustment is necessary to compare hospital c-section rates, it shows differences in rankings and highlights inappropriateness of some hospitals. By adjusting for only actual confounders valid and more precise estimates

  13. Evidence that Risk Adjustment is Unnecessary in Estimates of the User Cost of Money

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diego A. Restrepo-Tobón

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Investors value the  special attributes of monetary assets (e.g.,  exchangeability, liquidity, and safety  and pay a premium for holding them in the form of a lower return rate. The user cost of holding monetary assets can be measured approximately by the difference between the  returns on illiquid risky assets and  those of safer liquid assets. A more appropriate measure should adjust this difference by the  differential risk of the  assets in question. We investigate the  impact that time  non-separable preferences has on the  estimation of the  risk-adjusted user cost of money. Using U.K. data from 1965Q1 to 2011Q1, we estimate a habit-based asset pricing model  with money  in the utility function and  find that the  risk  adjustment for risky monetary assets is negligible. Thus, researchers can dispense with risk adjusting the  user cost of money  in constructing monetary aggregate indexes.

  14. Application of a Propensity Score Approach for Risk Adjustment in Profiling Multiple Physician Groups on Asthma Care

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, I-Chan; Frangakis, Constantine; Dominici, Francesca; Diette, Gregory B; Wu, Albert W

    2005-01-01

    Objectives To develop a propensity score-based risk adjustment method to estimate the performance of 20 physician groups and to compare performance rankings using our method to a standard hierarchical regression-based risk adjustment method. Data Sources/Study Setting Mailed survey of patients from 20 California physician groups between July 1998 and February 1999. Study Design A cross-sectional analysis of physician group performance using patient satisfaction with asthma care. We compared the performance of the 20 physician groups using a novel propensity score-based risk adjustment method. More specifically, by using a multinomial logistic regression model we estimated for each patient the propensity scores, or probabilities, of having been treated by each of the 20 physician groups. To adjust for different distributions of characteristics across groups, patients cared for by a given group were first stratified into five strata based on their propensity of being in that group. Then, strata-specific performance was combined across the five strata. We compared our propensity score method to hierarchical model-based risk adjustment without using propensity scores. The impact of different risk-adjustment methods on performance was measured in terms of percentage changes in absolute and quintile ranking (AR, QR), and weighted κ of agreement on QR. Results The propensity score-based risk adjustment method balanced the distributions of all covariates among the 20 physician groups, providing evidence for validity. The propensity score-based method and the hierarchical model-based method without propensity scores provided substantially different rankings (75 percent of groups differed in AR, 50 percent differed in QR, weighted κ=0.69). Conclusions We developed and tested a propensity score method for profiling multiple physician groups. We found that our method could balance the distributions of covariates across groups and yielded substantially different profiles

  15. 基于风险调整指标RAROC的投资组合保险策略研究%The Research of Performance of Portfolio Insurance Based on Risk Adjustment Indicator RAROC

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    姚远; 姚姗姗

    2012-01-01

    average excess return, opportunity cost, insurance costs, skewness, kurtosis and so on,however, these traditional indicators don' t consider risk factors that may cause potential loss of the portfolio insurance. Some researches introduce VaR as a separate indicator to measure portfolio insurance performance, but there is no combination of risk and return. Thus, by introducing VaR into the traditional RAROC indicators as the measurement of the added risk of portfolio insurance strategy, this paper constructs a new RAROC indicator based on risk adjustment to measure the return of unit risk of portfolio insurance, its core idea is to measure the size of the risk-adjusted returns via taking the future foreseeable losses into account. In this paper, compared with the traditional evaluation indicators like the final asset value, yield, and skew- ness, we adopt different risk multiplier and floors to analyze the performance of CPPI and TIPP strategy under the long, short and shock markets. The empirical results show that no matter which kind of insurance policy can play a combination of insurance functions, especially in bear market, all of them can both ensure the ending portfolio val- ue higher than the initial insurance amount, which means that the security of the investment has been effectively as- sured and can also capture benefits from the rising of stock prices. In case we do not consider transaction costs, in a period of sustained rising market, CPPI strategy performs best, followed by buy and hold strategy,while the TIPP strategy has the lowest final value ; in a period of the sustained declining market, the TIPP strategy performs best, followed by CPPI strategy , both of them successfully lock the loss in the initially range, while buy and hold strategy has the worst performance; In the shock period, the final asset value of the three strategies are not very different, the TIPP strategy performs best, followed by B&H strategy, while the CPFI strategy has

  16. Risk Adjustment, Reinsurance Improved Financial Outcomes For Individual Market Insurers With The Highest Claims.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacobs, Paul D; Cohen, Michael L; Keenan, Patricia

    2017-04-01

    The Affordable Care Act (ACA) reformed the individual health insurance market. Because insurers can no longer vary their offers of coverage based on applicants' health status, the ACA established a risk adjustment program to equalize health-related cost differences across plans. The ACA also established a temporary reinsurance program to subsidize high-cost claims. To assess the impact of these programs, we compared revenues to claims costs for insurers in the individual market during the first two years of ACA implementation (2014 and 2015), before and after the inclusion of risk adjustment and reinsurance payments. Before these payments were included, for the 30 percent of insurers with the highest claims costs, claims (not including administrative expenses) exceeded premium revenues by $90-$397 per enrollee per month. The effect was reversed after these payments were included, with revenues exceeding claims costs by $0-$49 per month. The risk adjustment and reinsurance programs were relatively well targeted in the first two years. While there is ongoing discussion regarding the future of the ACA, our findings can shed light on how risk-sharing programs can address risk selection among insurers-a pervasive issue in all health insurance markets.

  17. Premorbid adjustment in individuals at ultra-high risk for developing psychosis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dannevang, Anders; Randers, Lasse; Gondan, Matthias

    2016-01-01

    Objective: Deterioration in premorbid adjustment is related to ultra-high risk (UHR) individuals developing psychosis, but it has not been examined how UHR individuals’ development differs compared to healthy controls. This study investigates differences in premorbid adjustment between UHR...

  18. LIQUIDITY ADJUSTED VALUE AT RISK: INTEGRATING THE UNCERTAINTY IN DEPTH AND TIGHTNESS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Levent C. Uslu

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Efficient market risk management should also focus on the market liquidity risk, which is generally ignored by the conventional Value at Risk Metrics. We propose two alternative parametric methods to existing studies for the estimation of Liquidity Adjusted Value at Risk (LVaR. The first model is based on the volatility dynamics of VNET (Engle and Lange, 2001 whereas the second model also incorporates the first two moments of the tightness dimension to the latter, as measured by relative weighted bid-ask spreads. Considering a portfolio with different underlying volatility assumptions (EWMA, GARCH-CCC, GARCH-DCC, validation results indicate that both parametric LVaR approaches are strong alternatives to tightness based LVaR models and strictly superior to conventional VaR models, with respect to performance related to regulatory compliance, statistical coverage and overall relative cost of liquidity vs. loss size on violation days.

  19. Systematic review of risk adjustment models of hospital length of stay (LOS).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Mingshan; Sajobi, Tolulope; Lucyk, Kelsey; Lorenzetti, Diane; Quan, Hude

    2015-04-01

    Policy decisions in health care, such as hospital performance evaluation and performance-based budgeting, require an accurate prediction of hospital length of stay (LOS). This paper provides a systematic review of risk adjustment models for hospital LOS, and focuses primarily on studies that use administrative data. MEDLINE, EMBASE, Cochrane, PubMed, and EconLit were searched for studies that tested the performance of risk adjustment models in predicting hospital LOS. We included studies that tested models developed for the general inpatient population, and excluded those that analyzed risk factors only correlated with LOS, impact analyses, or those that used disease-specific scales and indexes to predict LOS. Our search yielded 3973 abstracts, of which 37 were included. These studies used various disease groupers and severity/morbidity indexes to predict LOS. Few models were developed specifically for explaining hospital LOS; most focused primarily on explaining resource spending and the costs associated with hospital LOS, and applied these models to hospital LOS. We found a large variation in predictive power across different LOS predictive models. The best model performance for most studies fell in the range of 0.30-0.60, approximately. The current risk adjustment methodologies for predicting LOS are still limited in terms of models, predictors, and predictive power. One possible approach to improving the performance of LOS risk adjustment models is to include more disease-specific variables, such as disease-specific or condition-specific measures, and functional measures. For this approach, however, more comprehensive and standardized data are urgently needed. In addition, statistical methods and evaluation tools more appropriate to LOS should be tested and adopted.

  20. New ventures require accurate risk analyses and adjustments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eastaugh, S R

    2000-01-01

    For new business ventures to succeed, healthcare executives need to conduct robust risk analyses and develop new approaches to balance risk and return. Risk analysis involves examination of objective risks and harder-to-quantify subjective risks. Mathematical principles applied to investment portfolios also can be applied to a portfolio of departments or strategic business units within an organization. The ideal business investment would have a high expected return and a low standard deviation. Nonetheless, both conservative and speculative strategies should be considered in determining an organization's optimal service line and helping the organization manage risk.

  1. Cumulative Family Risk Predicts Increases in Adjustment Difficulties across Early Adolescence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buehler, Cheryl; Gerard, Jean M.

    2013-01-01

    Family is an important socialization context for youth as they move through early adolescence. A significant feature of this complex socialization context is the accumulation of potential family risk factors that may compromise youth adjustment. This study examined cumulative family risk and adolescents' adjustment difficulties in 416 two-parent…

  2. 基于流动性调整CAViaR模型的风险度量方法%A New Method of Risk Measurement Based on Liquidity Adjusted CAViaR Models

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    闫昌荣

    2012-01-01

    The measurement and management of the liquidity risk, which is one of the major risks faced by investors, has always been one of the most difficult problems in both academia and practice. In this paper, we propose a new risk measurement method, called liquidity adjusted CAViaR models, to help investors manage future risks better, especially liquidity risk. This method can directly reflect the impacts of liquidity changes on the future risks, and the future liquidity adjusted VaR can be calculated simultanuously. Empirical studies suggest that this model can characterize the behavior of dynamic changes of liquidity risks in Chinese stock market, and conclude that a substantial decline of stock liquidity may lead to a significant increase of future risks. The positive liquidity may have a more significant effect than that of negative liquidity, thus it is more worthy of attentions from investors.%本文提出了流动性风险度量的一个新的方法,流动性调整的CAViaR模型。该模型能够直接反映资产流动性的变动对未来风险的影响,并在此基础上计算资产未来经过流动性调整的风险VaR,从而使投资者能够更好地管理风险,尤其是流动性风险。实证研究表明,该模型能够较好地刻画中国股市流动性风险的动态变化特征;并且发现股票流动性的大幅下降通常导致未来风险明显加大,且正向流动性下降所带来的风险往往较负向流动性要更大,因此更值得投资者关注。

  3. Regression Trees Identify Relevant Interactions: Can This Improve the Predictive Performance of Risk Adjustment?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buchner, Florian; Wasem, Jürgen; Schillo, Sonja

    2017-01-01

    Risk equalization formulas have been refined since their introduction about two decades ago. Because of the complexity and the abundance of possible interactions between the variables used, hardly any interactions are considered. A regression tree is used to systematically search for interactions, a methodologically new approach in risk equalization. Analyses are based on a data set of nearly 2.9 million individuals from a major German social health insurer. A two-step approach is applied: In the first step a regression tree is built on the basis of the learning data set. Terminal nodes characterized by more than one morbidity-group-split represent interaction effects of different morbidity groups. In the second step the 'traditional' weighted least squares regression equation is expanded by adding interaction terms for all interactions detected by the tree, and regression coefficients are recalculated. The resulting risk adjustment formula shows an improvement in the adjusted R(2) from 25.43% to 25.81% on the evaluation data set. Predictive ratios are calculated for subgroups affected by the interactions. The R(2) improvement detected is only marginal. According to the sample level performance measures used, not involving a considerable number of morbidity interactions forms no relevant loss in accuracy. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  4. BUNDLE ADJUSTMENTS CCD CAMERA CALIBRATION BASED ON COLLINEARITY EQUATION

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Liu Changying; Yu Zhijing; Che Rensheng; Ye Dong; Huang Qingcheng; Yang Dingning

    2004-01-01

    The solid template CCD camera calibration method of bundle adjustments based on collinearity equation is presented considering the characteristics of space large-dimension on-line measurement. In the method, a more comprehensive camera model is adopted which is based on the pinhole model extended with distortions corrections. In the process of calibration, calibration precision is improved by imaging at different locations in the whole measurement space, multi-imaging at the same location and bundle adjustments optimization. The calibration experiment proves that the calibration method is able to fulfill calibration requirement of CCD camera applied to vision measurement.

  5. Risk Adjustment for Determining Surgical Site Infection in Colon Surgery: Are All Models Created Equal?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muratore, Sydne; Statz, Catherine; Glover, J J; Kwaan, Mary; Beilman, Greg

    2016-04-01

    Colon surgical site infections (SSIs) are being utilized increasingly as a quality measure for hospital reimbursement and public reporting. The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) now require reporting of colon SSI, which is entered through the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's National Healthcare Safety Network (NHSN). However, the CMS's model for determining expected SSIs uses different risk adjustment variables than does NHSN. We hypothesize that CMS's colon SSI model will predict lower expected infection rates than will NHSN. Colon SSI data were reported prospectively to NHSN from 2012-2014 for the six Fairview Hospitals (1,789 colon procedures). We compared expected quarterly SSIs and standardized infection ratios (SIRs) generated by CMS's risk-adjustment model (age and American Society of Anesthesiologist [ASA] classification) vs. NHSN's (age, ASA classification, procedure duration, endoscope [including laparoscope] use, medical school affiliation, hospital bed number, and incision class). The patients with more complex colon SSIs were more likely to be male (60% vs. 44%; p = 0.011), to have contaminated/dirty incisions (21% vs. 10%; p = 0.005), and to have longer operations (235 min vs. 156 min; p < 0.001) and were more likely to be at a medical school-affiliated hospital (53% vs. 40%; p = 0.032). For Fairview Hospitals combined, CMS calculated a lower number of expected quarterly SSIs than did the NHSN (4.58 vs. 5.09 SSIs/quarter; p = 0.002). This difference persisted in a university hospital (727 procedures; 2.08 vs. 2.33; p = 0.002) and a smaller, community-based hospital (565 procedures; 1.31 vs. 1.42; p = 0.002). There were two quarters in which CMS identified Fairview's SIR as an outlier for complex colon SSIs (p = 0.05 and 0.04), whereas NHSN did not (p = 0.06 and 0.06). The CMS's current risk-adjustment model using age and ASA classification predicts lower rates of expected colon

  6. Use of surveillance data for prevention of healthcare-associated infection: risk adjustment and reporting dilemmas.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    O'Neill, Eoghan

    2009-08-01

    Healthcare-associated or nosocomial infection (HCAI) is of increasing importance to healthcare providers and the public. Surveillance is crucial but must be adjusted for risk, especially when used for interhospital comparisons or for public reporting.

  7. Behavioral Risk Factors: Selected Metropolitan Area Risk Trends (SMART) MMSA Age-adjusted Prevalence Data (2011 to Present)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — 2011 to present. BRFSS SMART MMSA age-adjusted prevalence combined land line and cell phone data. The Selected Metropolitan Area Risk Trends (SMART) project uses the...

  8. Behavioral Risk Factors: Selected Metropolitan Area Risk Trends (SMART) MMSA Age-adjusted Prevalence Data (2011 to Present)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — 2011 to present. BRFSS SMART MMSA age-adjusted prevalence combined land line and cell phone data. The Selected Metropolitan Area Risk Trends (SMART) project uses...

  9. Adjusted risk for trisomy 21 after the anomaly scan. How accurate is the Fetal Medicine Foundation algorithm?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dagklis, Themistoklis I; Kalogiannidis, Ioannis I; Prapa, Stella M; Prapas, Yannis M; Prapas, Nikos M

    2012-02-01

    To examine the accuracy of the Fetal Medicine Foundation algorithm used to adjust the risk for trisomy 21 after ultrasound findings detected or not at the time of the anomaly scan. This was a retrospective study of all amniocenteses performed in a single centre, in singleton pregnancies, between 1998 and 2008. Maternal demographic characteristics, second-trimester ultrasound findings, indications for amniocentesis and karyotype results were reviewed. The algorithm introduced by the Fetal Medicine Foundation was used to calculate the patient specific risk for trisomy 21 using the age related background risk and anomaly scan findings. Expected trisomy 21 cases based on these risks was compared with the actual karyotype results. Overall, 4,511 cases of singleton pregnancies that underwent second-trimester amniocentesis were reviewed. In 572 cases (12.7%), there were markers of chromosomal abnormality and no previous screening for trisomy 21. The expected number of trisomy 21 cases based on maternal age for this population of 572 cases was 1. The expected number of chromosomal abnormalities after adjusting for ultrasound findings based on the algorithm introduced by the Fetal Medicine Foundation was 6.9 (95% confidence interval 3.4-14.3). After karyotyping, in this population there were 6 cases of trisomy 21, 1 case of Trisomy 18 and 1 case of XXY. The algorithm that adjusts the age related risk of trisomy 21 according to second-trimester anomaly scan findings is very accurate in predicting the modified risk.

  10. Usefulness of administrative databases for risk adjustment of adverse events in surgical patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodrigo-Rincón, Isabel; Martin-Vizcaíno, Marta P; Tirapu-León, Belén; Zabalza-López, Pedro; Abad-Vicente, Francisco J; Merino-Peralta, Asunción; Oteiza-Martínez, Fabiola

    2016-03-01

    The aim of this study was to assess the usefulness of clinical-administrative databases for the development of risk adjustment in the assessment of adverse events in surgical patients. The study was conducted at the Hospital of Navarra, a tertiary teaching hospital in northern Spain. We studied 1602 hospitalizations of surgical patients from 2008 to 2010. We analysed 40 comorbidity variables included in the National Surgical Quality Improvement (NSQIP) Program of the American College of Surgeons using 2 sources of information: The clinical and administrative database (CADB) and the data extracted from the complete clinical records (CR), which was considered the gold standard. Variables were catalogued according to compliance with the established criteria: sensitivity, positive predictive value and kappa coefficient >0.6. The average number of comorbidities per study participant was 1.6 using the CR and 0.95 based on CADB (p<.0001). Thirteen types of comorbidities (accounting for 8% of the comorbidities detected in the CR) were not identified when the CADB was the source of information. Five of the 27 remaining comorbidities complied with the 3 established criteria; 2 pathologies fulfilled 2 criteria, whereas 11 fulfilled 1, and 9 did not fulfil any criterion. CADB detected prevalent comorbidities such as comorbid hypertension and diabetes. However, the CABD did not provide enough information to assess the variables needed to perform the risk adjustment proposed by the NSQIP for the assessment of adverse events in surgical patients. Copyright © 2015. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U.

  11. Adjusting for risk selection in state health insurance exchanges will be critically important and feasible, but not easy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weiner, Jonathan P; Trish, Erin; Abrams, Chad; Lemke, Klaus

    2012-02-01

    The Affordable Care Act calls for the establishment of state-level health insurance exchanges. The viability and success of these exchanges will require effective risk-adjustment strategies to compensate for differences in enrollees' health status across health plans. This article describes why the Affordable Care Act could lead to favorable or adverse risk selection across plans. It reviews provisions in the act and recent proposed regulations intended to mitigate the problem of risk selection. We performed a simulation that showed that under the premium rating restrictions in the law, large incentives for insurers to attract healthier enrollees will be likely to persist-resulting in substantial overpayment to plans with very healthy enrollees and underpayment to plans with very sick members. We conclude that risk adjustment based on patients' diagnoses, such as will be in place from 2014 on, will yield payments to insurers that will be more accurate than what will come solely from the age-adjusted and other rating allowed by the act. We also describe additional challenges of implementing risk adjustment.

  12. A method to adjust radiation dose-response relationships for clinical risk factors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Appelt, Ane Lindegaard; Vogelius, Ivan R

    2012-01-01

    Several clinical risk factors for radiation induced toxicity have been identified in the literature. Here, we present a method to quantify the effect of clinical risk factors on radiation dose-response curves and apply the method to adjust the dose-response for radiation pneumonitis for patients...

  13. Automatic Adjustment of Wide-Base Google Street View Panoramas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boussias-Alexakis, E.; Tsironisa, V.; Petsa, E.; Karras, G.

    2016-06-01

    This paper focuses on the issue of sparse matching in cases of extremely wide-base panoramic images such as those acquired by Google Street View in narrow urban streets. In order to effectively use affine point operators for bundle adjustment, panoramas must be suitably rectified to simulate affinity. To this end, a custom piecewise planar projection (triangular prism projection) is applied. On the assumption that the image baselines run parallel to the street façades, the estimated locations of the vanishing lines of the façade plane allow effectively removing projectivity and applying the ASIFT point operator on panorama pairs. Results from comparisons with multi-panorama adjustment, based on manually measured image points, and ground truth indicate that such an approach, if further elaborated, may well provide a realistic answer to the matching problem in the case of demanding panorama configurations.

  14. Acute anticoagulation adjustment in patients with atrial fibrillation at risk for stroke: approaches, strategies, risks and benefits.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olshansky, Brian; Guo, Hongsheng

    2005-07-01

    The acute management of anticoagulation in patients with atrial fibrillation to prevent stroke and other thromboembolic complications includes the use of individualized strategies tailored to the patient and based on the situation (cardioversion, surgeries, dental procedures, cardiac interventions, other invasive procedures and initiation of, or adjustment to, warfarin dosing). The vast range of choices can cause confusion and few randomized controlled clinical trials in this area provide adequate guidance. Chronic anticoagulation management is more straightforward since clinical evidence is ample, randomized clinical trial data provides cogent informaiton and guidelines have been established. Acute management of anticoagulation in patients with atrial fibrillation to prevent thromboembolic complications is often unrecognized but is emerging as a crucial, but challenging, and increasingly complex aspect of the care of patients with atrial fibrillation. This review addresses issues regarding such patients who may be at risk for stroke and require acute adjustments of anticoagulation (in light of, or in lieu of, chronic anticoagulation). Several promising new strategies are considered in light of established medical care. This analysis provides practical recommendations based on available data and presents results from recent investigations that may provide insight into future strategies.

  15. Engine control system having fuel-based adjustment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willi, Martin L.; Fiveland, Scott B.; Montgomery, David T.; Gong, Weidong

    2011-03-15

    A control system for an engine having a cylinder is disclosed having an engine valve configured to affect a fluid flow of the cylinder, an actuator configured to move the engine valve, and an in-cylinder sensor configured to generate a signal indicative of a characteristic of fuel entering the cylinder. The control system also has a controller in communication with the actuator and the sensor. The controller is configured to determine the characteristic of the fuel based on the signal and selectively regulate the actuator to adjust a timing of the engine valve based on the characteristic of the fuel.

  16. Conference Innovations in Derivatives Market : Fixed Income Modeling, Valuation Adjustments, Risk Management, and Regulation

    CERN Document Server

    Grbac, Zorana; Scherer, Matthias; Zagst, Rudi

    2016-01-01

    This book presents 20 peer-reviewed chapters on current aspects of derivatives markets and derivative pricing. The contributions, written by leading researchers in the field as well as experienced authors from the financial industry, present the state of the art in: • Modeling counterparty credit risk: credit valuation adjustment, debit valuation adjustment, funding valuation adjustment, and wrong way risk. • Pricing and hedging in fixed-income markets and multi-curve interest-rate modeling. • Recent developments concerning contingent convertible bonds, the measuring of basis spreads, and the modeling of implied correlations. The recent financial crisis has cast tremendous doubts on the classical view on derivative pricing. Now, counterparty credit risk and liquidity issues are integral aspects of a prudent valuation procedure and the reference interest rates are represented by a multitude of curves according to their different periods and maturities. A panel discussion included in the book (featuring D...

  17. Beyond preadoptive risk: The impact of adoptive family environment on adopted youth's psychosocial adjustment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ji, Juye; Brooks, Devon; Barth, Richard P; Kim, Hansung

    2010-07-01

    Adopted children often are exposed to preadoptive stressors--such as prenatal substance exposure, child maltreatment, and out-of-home placements--that increase their risks for psychosocial maladjustment. Psychosocial adjustment of adopted children emerges as the product of pre- and postadoptive factors. This study builds on previous research, which fails to simultaneously assess the influences of pre- and postadoptive factors, by examining the impact of adoptive family sense of coherence on adoptee's psychosocial adjustment beyond the effects of preadoptive risks. Using a sample of adoptive families (n = 385) taking part in the California Long Range Adoption Study, structural equation modeling analyses were performed. Results indicate a significant impact of family sense of coherence on adoptees' psychosocial adjustment and a considerably less significant role of preadoptive risks. The findings suggest the importance of assessing adoptive family's ability to respond to stress and of helping families to build and maintain their capacity to cope with stress despite the sometimes fractious pressures of adoption.

  18. Cumulative family risk predicts increases in adjustment difficulties across early adolescence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buehler, Cheryl; Gerard, Jean M

    2013-06-01

    Family is an important socialization context for youth as they move through early adolescence. A significant feature of this complex socialization context is the accumulation of potential family risk factors that may compromise youth adjustment. This study examined cumulative family risk and adolescents' adjustment difficulties in 416 two-parent families using four waves of annual longitudinal data (51% female youth). Risk factors in four family domains were examined: socioeconomic, parents' psychological realm, marital, and parenting. Cumulative family risk experienced while in 6th grade was associated concurrently with daughters' higher internalizing problems and with increased internalizing problems during early adolescence. Cumulative family risk was associated concurrently with sons' higher externalizing problems and with daughters' increased externalizing problems over time. Cumulative family risk was associated concurrently with lower grades and with declining grades over time for both daughters and sons. The number of risk domains also was associated with youths' adjustment difficulties during early adolescence, providing evidence that risk in two-parent families involves more than ineffective parenting. These findings suggest a critical need to provide strong support for families in reducing a variety of stressors across multiple family domains as their children traverse early adolescence.

  19. Variance-based fingerprint distance adjustment algorithm for indoor localization

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xiaolong Xu; Yu Tang; Xinheng Wang; Yun Zhang

    2015-01-01

    The multipath effect and movements of people in in-door environments lead to inaccurate localization. Through the test, calculation and analysis on the received signal strength in-dication (RSSI) and the variance of RSSI, we propose a novel variance-based fingerprint distance adjustment algorithm (VFDA). Based on the rule that variance decreases with the increase of RSSI mean, VFDA calculates RSSI variance with the mean value of received RSSIs. Then, we can get the correction weight. VFDA adjusts the fingerprint distances with the correction weight based on the variance of RSSI, which is used to correct the fingerprint distance. Besides, a threshold value is applied to VFDA to im-prove its performance further. VFDA and VFDA with the threshold value are applied in two kinds of real typical indoor environments deployed with several Wi-Fi access points. One is a quadrate lab room, and the other is a long and narrow corridor of a building. Experimental results and performance analysis show that in in-door environments, both VFDA and VFDA with the threshold have better positioning accuracy and environmental adaptability than the current typical positioning methods based on the k-nearest neighbor algorithm and the weighted k-nearest neighbor algorithm with similar computational costs.

  20. Size-Adjustable Microdroplets Generation Based on Microinjection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shibao Li

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Microinjection is a promising tool for microdroplet generation, while the microinjection for microdroplets generation still remains a challenging issue due to the Laplace pressure at the micropipette opening. Here, we apply a simple and robust substrate-contacting microinjection method to microdroplet generation, presenting a size-adjustable microdroplets generation method based on a critical injection (CI model. Firstly, the micropipette is adjusted to a preset injection pressure. Secondly, the micropipette is moved down to contact the substrate, then, the Laplace pressure in the droplet is no longer relevant and the liquid flows out in time. The liquid constantly flows out until the micropipette is lifted, ending the substrate-contacting situation, which results in the recovery of the Laplace pressure at the micropipette opening, and the liquid injection is terminated. We carry out five groups of experiments whereupon 1600 images are captured within each group and the microdroplet radius of each image is detected. Then we determine the relationship among microdroplet radius, radius at the micropipette opening, time, and pressure, and, two more experiments are conducted to verify the relationship. To verify the effectiveness of the substrate-contacting method and the relationship, we conducted two experiments with six desired microdroplet radii are set in each experiment, by adjusting the injection time with a given pressure, and adjusting the injection pressure with a given time. Then, six arrays of microdroplets are obtained in each experiment. The results of the experiments show that the standard errors of the microdroplet radii are less than 2% and the experimental errors fall in the range of ±5%. The average operating speed is 20 microdroplets/min and the minimum radius of the microdroplets is 25 μm. This method has a simple experimental setup that enables easy manipulation and lower cost.

  1. Improved hospital-level risk adjustment for surveillance of healthcare-associated bloodstream infections: a retrospective cohort study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jones MA

    2009-09-01

    -of-fit and the higher frequency of OBSI and STAPH outcomes indicated that hospital-specific risk adjustment based on medical services provided would be useful for these outcomes in Queensland. The low frequency of IVD-STAPH and MRSA outcomes indicated that development of a hospital-level risk score was a more valid method of risk adjustment for these outcomes.

  2. Development of a Risk-adjustment Model for the Inpatient Rehabilitation Facility Discharge Self-care Functional Status Quality Measure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deutsch, Anne; Pardasaney, Poonam; Iriondo-Perez, Jeniffer; Ingber, Melvin J; Porter, Kristie A; McMullen, Tara

    2017-07-01

    Functional status measures are important patient-centered indicators of inpatient rehabilitation facility (IRF) quality of care. We developed a risk-adjusted self-care functional status measure for the IRF Quality Reporting Program. This paper describes the development and performance of the measure's risk-adjustment model. Our sample included IRF Medicare fee-for-service patients from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services' 2008-2010 Post-Acute Care Payment Reform Demonstration. Data sources included the Continuity Assessment Record and Evaluation Item Set, IRF-Patient Assessment Instrument, and Medicare claims. Self-care scores were based on 7 Continuity Assessment Record and Evaluation items. The model was developed using discharge self-care score as the dependent variable, and generalized linear modeling with generalized estimation equation to account for patient characteristics and clustering within IRFs. Patient demographics, clinical characteristics at IRF admission, and clinical characteristics related to the recent hospitalization were tested as risk adjusters. A total of 4769 patient stays from 38 IRFs were included. Approximately 57% of the sample was female; 38.4%, 75-84 years; and 31.0%, 65-74 years. The final model, containing 77 risk adjusters, explained 53.7% of variance in discharge self-care scores (P<0.0001). Admission self-care function was the strongest predictor, followed by admission cognitive function and IRF primary diagnosis group. The range of expected and observed scores overlapped very well, with little bias across the range of predicted self-care functioning. Our risk-adjustment model demonstrated strong validity for predicting discharge self-care scores. Although the model needs validation with national data, it represents an important first step in evaluation of IRF functional outcomes.

  3. The Impact of Extreme-Risk Cases on Hospitals’ Risk-Adjusted Percutaneous Coronary Intervention Mortality Ratings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sherwood, Matthew W.; Brennan, J. Matthew; Ho, Kalon K.; Masoudi, Frederick A.; Messenger, John C.; Weaver, W. Douglas; Dai, David; Peterson, Eric D.

    2017-01-01

    OBJECTIVES The goal of this study was to examine the calibration of a validated risk-adjustment model in very high-risk percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) cases and assess whether sites’ case mix affects their performance ratings. BACKGROUND There are concerns that treating PCI patients with particularly high-risk features such as cardiogenic shock or prior cardiac arrest may adversely impact hospital performance ratings. However, there is little investigation on the validity of these concerns. METHODS We examined 624,286 PCI procedures from 1,168 sites that participated in the CathPCI Registry in 2010. Procedural risk was estimated using the recently published Version 4 National Cardiovascular Data Registry (NCDR) PCI risk-adjusted mortality (RAM) model. We calculated observed/expected mortality using several risk classification methods, and simulated hospital performance after combining their highest risk cases over 2 years into a single year. RESULTS In 2010, crude in-hospital PCI mortality was 1.4%. The NCDR model was generally well calibrated among high risk, however there was slight overprediction of risk in extreme cases. Hospitals treating the highest overall expected risk PCI patients or those treating the top 20% of high-risk cases had lower (better) RAM ratings than centers treating lower-risk cases (1.25% vs. 1.51%). The observed/expected ratio for top-risk quintile versus low-risk quintile was 0.91 (0.87 to 0.96) versus 1.10 (1.03 to 1.17). Combining all the high-risk patients over a 2-year period into a single year also did not negatively impact the site’s RAM ratings. CONCLUSIONS Evaluation of a contemporary sample of PCI cases across the United States showed no evidence that treating high-risk PCI cases adversely affects hospital RAM rates. PMID:25499301

  4. Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) Age-Adjusted Prevalence Data (2011 to present)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — 2011 to present. BRFSS combined land line and cell phone age-adjusted prevalence data. The BRFSS is a continuous, state-based surveillance system that collects...

  5. Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) Age-Adjusted Prevalence Data (2011 to present)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — 2011 to present. BRFSS combined land line and cell phone age-adjusted prevalence data. The BRFSS is a continuous, state-based surveillance system that collects...

  6. Child Maltreatment Profiles and Adjustment Problems in High-Risk Adolescents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hazen, Andrea L.; Connelly, Cynthia D.; Roesch, Scott C.; Hough, Richard L.; Landsverk, John A.

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to identify profiles of maltreatment experiences in a sample of high-risk adolescents and to investigate the relationship between the derived profiles and psychological adjustment. Participants are 1,131 youth between the ages of 12 and 18 years involved with publicly funded mental health and social services.…

  7. School Adjustment of Pupils with ADHD: Cognitive, Emotional and Temperament Risk Factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanchez-Perez, Noelia; Gonzalez-Salinas, Carmen

    2013-01-01

    From different research perspectives, the cognitive and emotional characteristics associated with ADHD in children have been identified as risk factors for the development of diverse adjustment problems in the school context. Research in nonclinical population can additionally help in understanding ADHD deficits, since children with specific…

  8. 77 FR 21775 - Risk Adjustment Meeting-May 7, 2012 and May 8, 2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-04-11

    ... methodology is being developed and we are working through operational issues. ] DATES: Meeting Dates: May 7th...: Please send inquiries about the logistics of the meeting to logistics@isomglobal.com and about the... Federal risk adjustment methodology is being developed and we are working through operational issues. II...

  9. Designing and evaluating risk-based surveillance systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Willeberg, Preben; Nielsen, Liza Rosenbaum; Salman, Mo

    2012-01-01

    Risk-based surveillance systems reveal occurrence of disease or infection in a sample of population units, which are selected on the basis of risk factors for the condition under study. The purpose of such systems for supporting practical animal disease policy formulations and management decisions...... applicable risk estimate for use in designing and evaluating a risk-based surveillance system would be a crude (unadjusted) relative risk, odds ratio or apparent prevalence. Risk estimates found in the published literature, however, are often the results of multivariable analyses implicitly adjusting...... the estimates for confounding from other risk factors. We describe some potential unintentional effects when using adjusted risk estimates in evaluating the efficacy and sensitivity of risk-based surveillance systems (SSe). In two examples, we quantify and compare the efficacy and SSe using adjusted and crude...

  10. Towards individualized dose constraints: Adjusting the QUANTEC radiation pneumonitis model for clinical risk factors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Appelt, Ane L; Vogelius, Ivan R.; Farr, Katherina P.

    2014-01-01

    Background. Understanding the dose-response of the lung in order to minimize the risk of radiation pneumonitis (RP) is critical for optimization of lung cancer radiotherapy. We propose a method to combine the dose-response relationship for RP in the landmark QUANTEC paper with known clinical risk......-only QUANTEC model and the model including risk factors. Subdistribution cumulative incidence functions were compared for patients with high/low-risk predictions from the two models, and concordance indices (c-indices) for the prediction of RP were calculated. Results. The reference dose- response relationship...... factors, in order to enable individual risk prediction. The approach is validated in an independent dataset. Material and methods. The prevalence of risk factors in the patient populations underlying the QUANTEC analysis was estimated, and a previously published method to adjust dose...

  11. Assessing the effect of estimation error on risk-adjusted CUSUM chart performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-12-01

    Mark A. Jones, Stefan H. Steiner. Assessing the effect of estimation error on risk-adjusted CUSUM chart performance. Int J Qual Health Care (2012) 24(2): 176–181 doi: 10.1093/intqhc/mzr082. The authors would like to correct an error identified in the above paper. Table 5 included incorrect information. The correct table has been reprinted below. Furthermore, in the discussion on p. 180 of this paper, one of the incorrect numbers in Table 5 was quoted. This section is reproduced below with the correct numbers. In the case of homogeneous patients where adverse event risk was assumed to be constant at 6.6% the estimated level of estimation error: SD (ARL0) = 85.9 was less than the equivalent risk-adjusted scenario where SD (ARL0) = 89.2 but only by around 4%.

  12. Pitch Based Wind Turbine Intelligent Speed Setpoint Adjustment Algorithms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Asier González-González

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available This work is aimed at optimizing the wind turbine rotor speed setpoint algorithm. Several intelligent adjustment strategies have been investigated in order to improve a reward function that takes into account the power captured from the wind and the turbine speed error. After different approaches including Reinforcement Learning, the best results were obtained using a Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO-based wind turbine speed setpoint algorithm. A reward improvement of up to 10.67% has been achieved using PSO compared to a constant approach and 0.48% compared to a conventional approach. We conclude that the pitch angle is the most adequate input variable for the turbine speed setpoint algorithm compared to others such as rotor speed, or rotor angular acceleration.

  13. On-demand Reporting of Risk-adjusted and Smoothed Rates for Quality Profiling in ACS NSQIP.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, Mark E; Liu, Yaoming; Huffman, Kristopher M; Ko, Clifford Y; Hall, Bruce L

    2016-12-01

    Surgical quality improvement depends on hospitals having accurate and timely information about comparative performance. Profiling accuracy is improved by risk adjustment and shrinkage adjustment to stabilize estimates. These adjustments are included in ACS NSQIP reports, where hospital odds ratios (OR) are estimated using hierarchical models built on contemporaneous data. However, the timeliness of feedback remains an issue. We describe an alternative, nonhierarchical approach, which yields risk- and shrinkage-adjusted rates. In contrast to our "Traditional" NSQIP method, this approach uses preexisting equations, built on historical data, which permits hospitals to have near immediate access to profiling results. We compared our traditional method to this new "on-demand" approach with respect to outlier determinations, kappa statistics, and correlations between logged OR and standardized rates, for 12 models (4 surgical groups by 3 outcomes). When both methods used the same contemporaneous data, there were similar numbers of hospital outliers and correlations between logged OR and standardized rates were high. However, larger differences were observed when the effect of contemporaneous versus historical data was added to differences in statistical methodology. The on-demand, nonhierarchical approach provides results similar to the traditional hierarchical method and offers immediacy, an "over-time" perspective, application to a broader range of models and data subsets, and reporting of more easily understood rates. Although the nonhierarchical method results are now available "on-demand" in a web-based application, the hierarchical approach has advantages, which support its continued periodic publication as the gold standard for hospital profiling in the program.

  14. Transplant center quality assessment using a continuously updatable, risk-adjusted technique (CUSUM).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Axelrod, D A; Guidinger, M K; Metzger, R A; Wiesner, R H; Webb, R L; Merion, R M

    2006-02-01

    Access to timely, risk-adjusted measures of transplant center outcomes is crucial for program quality improvement. The cumulative summation technique (CUSUM) has been proposed as a sensitive tool to detect persistent, clinically relevant changes in transplant center performance over time. Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients data for adult kidney and liver transplants (1/97 to 12/01) were examined using logistic regression models to predict risk of graft failure (kidney) and death (liver) at 1 year. Risk-adjusted CUSUM charts were constructed for each center and compared with results from the semi-annual method of the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network (OPTN). Transplant centers (N = 258) performed 59 650 kidney transplants, with a 9.2% 1-year graft failure rate. The CUSUM method identified centers with a period of significantly improving (N = 92) or declining (N = 52) performance. Transplant centers (N = 114) performed 18 277 liver transplants, with a 13.9% 1-year mortality rate. The CUSUM method demonstrated improving performance at 48 centers and declining performance at 24 centers. The CUSUM technique also identified the majority of centers flagged by the current OPTN method (20/22 kidney and 8/11 liver). CUSUM monitoring may be a useful technique for quality improvement, allowing center directors to identify clinically important, risk-adjusted changes in transplant center outcome.

  15. Childhood ADHD symptoms and risk for cigarette smoking during adolescence: School adjustment as a potential mediator.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flory, Kate; Malone, Patrick S; Lamis, Dorian A

    2011-06-01

    Although a large body of research suggests that children with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) are at increased risk for cigarette smoking during adolescence compared with their non-ADHD peers, much less research has examined why. The current study addressed this gap in the literature by examining middle school adjustment, broadly defined, as a possible mediator of the relation between childhood ADHD symptoms and cigarette smoking during middle adolescence (10th grade). Longitudinal data were collected from a community sample of 754 youth using self-report and parent report along with school records, and a novel statistical technique was used in the process of testing for mediation. Consistent with hypotheses, school adjustment was found to mediate the relation between childhood ADHD symptoms and later cigarette smoking, even after controlling for early externalizing problems. Results have implications for etiological theories of adolescent deviant behavior and suggest that successful smoking prevention programs targeting youth with ADHD should include a school adjustment component.

  16. Fire-related cognitions moderate the impact of risk factors on adjustment following wildfire disaster.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scher, Christine D; Ellwanger, Joel

    2009-10-01

    This study builds upon current understanding of risk and protective factors for post-disaster adjustment by examining relationships between disaster-related cognitions, three empirically supported risk factors for poorer adjustment (i.e., greater disaster impact, female gender, and racial/ethnic minority status), and three common post-disaster outcomes (i.e., depression, anxiety, and somatic complaints). Participants were 200 students exposed to wildfire disaster. Simultaneous hierarchical regression analyses revealed that, during the acute stress period: (1) disaster-related cognitions in interaction with fire impact and minority status, as well as gender, were related to anxiety symptoms, (2) cognitions were related to depression symptoms, and (3) cognitions in interaction with minority status, as well as fire impact, were related to somatic symptoms. No examined variables predicted symptom change.

  17. Improving risk-adjusted measures of surgical site infection for the national healthcare safety network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mu, Yi; Edwards, Jonathan R; Horan, Teresa C; Berrios-Torres, Sandra I; Fridkin, Scott K

    2011-10-01

    The National Healthcare Safety Network (NHSN) has provided simple risk adjustment of surgical site infection (SSI) rates to participating hospitals to facilitate quality improvement activities; improved risk models were developed and evaluated. Data reported to the NHSN for all operative procedures performed from January 1, 2006, through December 31, 2008, were analyzed. Only SSIs related to the primary incision site were included. A common set of patient- and hospital-specific variables were evaluated as potential SSI risk factors by univariate analysis. Some ific variables were available for inclusion. Stepwise logistic regression was used to develop the specific risk models by procedure category. Bootstrap resampling was used to validate the models, and the c-index was used to compare the predictive power of new procedure-specific risk models with that of the models with the NHSN risk index as the only variable (NHSN risk index model). From January 1, 2006, through December 31, 2008, 847 hospitals in 43 states reported a total of 849,659 procedures and 16,147 primary incisional SSIs (risk, 1.90%) among 39 operative procedure categories. Overall, the median c-index of the new procedure-specific risk was greater (0.67 [range, 0.59-0.85]) than the median c-index of the NHSN risk index models (0.60 [range, 0.51-0.77]); for 33 of 39 procedures, the new procedure-specific models yielded a higher c-index than did the NHSN risk index models. A set of new risk models developed using existing data elements collected through the NHSN improves predictive performance, compared with the traditional NHSN risk index stratification.

  18. Evolving Adjustments to External (Gamma) Slope Factors for CERCLA Risk and Dose Assessments - 12290

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Walker, Stuart [U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (United States)

    2012-07-01

    To model the external exposure pathway in risk and dose assessments of radioactive contamination at Superfund sites, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) uses slope factors (SFs), also known as risk coefficients, and dose conversion factors (DCFs). Without any adjustment these external radiation exposure pathways effectively assumes that an individual is exposed to a source geometry that is effectively an infinite slab. The concept of an 'infinite slab' means that the thickness of the contaminated zone and its aerial extent are so large that it behaves as if it were infinite in its physical dimensions. EPA has been making increasingly complex adjustments to account for the extent of the contamination and its corresponding radiation field to provide more accurate risk and dose assessment modeling when using its calculators. In most instances, the more accurate modeling results derived from these gamma adjustments are less conservative. The notable exception are for some radionuclides in rooms with contaminated walls, ceiling, and floors, and the receptor is in location of the room with the highest amount of radiation exposure, usually the corner of small rooms and the center of large conference rooms. (authors)

  19. Household adjustment to flood risk: a survey of coastal residents in Texas and Florida, United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brody, Samuel D; Lee, Yoonjeong; Highfield, Wesley E

    2017-07-01

    Individual households have increasingly borne responsibility for reducing the adverse impacts of flooding on their property. Little observational research has been conducted, however, at the household level to examine the major factors contributing to the selection of a particular household adjustment. This study addresses the issue by evaluating statistically the factors influencing the adoption of various household flood hazard adjustments. The results indicate that respondents with higher-value homes or longer housing tenure are more likely to adopt structural and expensive techniques. In addition, the information source and the Community Rating System (CRS) score for the jurisdiction where the household is located have a significant bearing on household adjustment. In contrast, proximity to risk zones and risk perception yield somewhat mixed results or behave counter to assumptions in the literature. The study findings provide insights that will be of value to governments and decision-makers interested in encouraging homeowners to take protective action given increasing flood risk. © 2017 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2017.

  20. A risk-adjusted approach to comparing the return on investment in health care programs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sendi, Pedram; Al, Maiwenn J; Zimmermann, Heinz

    2004-09-01

    The league table approach to rank ordering health care programs according to the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio is a common method to guide policy makers in setting priorities for resource allocation. In the presence of uncertainty, however, ranking programs is complicated by the degree of variability associated with each program. Confidence intervals for cost-effectiveness ratios may be overlapping. Moreover, confidence intervals may include negative ratios and the interpretation of negative cost-effectiveness ratios is ambiguous. We suggest to rank mutually exclusive health care programs according to their rate of return which is defined as the net monetary benefit over the costs of the program. However, how does a program with a higher expected return but higher uncertainty compare to a program with a lower expected return but lower risk? In the present paper we propose a risk-adjusted measure to compare the return on investment in health care programs. Financing a health care program is treated as an investment in a risky asset. The risky asset is combined with a risk-free asset in order to construct a combined portfolio. The weights attributed to the risk-free and risky assets are chosen in such a manner that all programs under consideration exhibit the same degree of uncertainty. We can then compare the performance of the individual programs by constructing a risk-adjusted league table of expected returns.

  1. Identifying Military and Combat Specific Risk Factors for Child Adjustment: Comparing High and Low Risk Military Families and Civilian Families

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-06-01

    measure developmentally salient skills that are indicators of current adaptation among preschool and early childhood boys and girls of civilian intact and...single-parent families. This will allow for the identification of military-specific challenges, if any, of child adjustment and developmental ...n/a INTRODUCTION There is an emerging consensus that parental combat deployment may increase risk for child development ; but details on what the

  2. Towards individualized dose constraints: Adjusting the QUANTEC radiation pneumonitis model for clinical risk factors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Appelt, Ane L; Vogelius, Ivan R.; Farr, Katherina P.;

    2014-01-01

    Background. Understanding the dose-response of the lung in order to minimize the risk of radiation pneumonitis (RP) is critical for optimization of lung cancer radiotherapy. We propose a method to combine the dose-response relationship for RP in the landmark QUANTEC paper with known clinical risk...... factors, in order to enable individual risk prediction. The approach is validated in an independent dataset. Material and methods. The prevalence of risk factors in the patient populations underlying the QUANTEC analysis was estimated, and a previously published method to adjust dose......-response relationships for clinical risk factors was employed. Effect size estimates (odds ratios) for risk factors were drawn from a recently published meta-analysis. Baseline values for D50 and γ50 were found. The method was tested in an independent dataset (103 patients), comparing the predictive power of the dose......-only QUANTEC model and the model including risk factors. Subdistribution cumulative incidence functions were compared for patients with high/low-risk predictions from the two models, and concordance indices (c-indices) for the prediction of RP were calculated. Results. The reference dose- response relationship...

  3. Incremental Training for SVM-Based Classification with Keyword Adjusting

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SUN Jin-wen; YANG Jian-wu; LU Bin; XIAO Jian-guo

    2004-01-01

    This paper analyzed the theory of incremental learning of SVM (support vector machine) and pointed out it is a shortage that the support vector optimization is only considered in present research of SVM incremental learning.According to the significance of keyword in training, a new incremental training method considering keyword adjusting was proposed, which eliminates the difference between incremental learning and batch learning through the keyword adjusting.The experimental results show that the improved method outperforms the method without the keyword adjusting and achieve the same precision as the batch method.

  4. One idea of portfolio risk control for absolute return strategy risk adjustments by signals from correlation behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nishiyama, N.

    2001-12-01

    Absolute return strategy provided from fund of funds (FOFs) investment schemes is the focus in Japanese Financial Community. FOFs investment mainly consists of hedge fund investment and it has two major characteristics which are low correlation against benchmark index and little impact from various external changes in the environment given maximizing return. According to the historical track record of survival hedge funds in this business world, they maintain a stable high return and low risk. However, one must keep in mind that low risk would not be equal to risk free. The failure of Long-term capital management (LTCM) that took place in the summer of 1998 was a symbolized phenomenon. The summer of 1998 exhibited a certain limitation of traditional value at risk (VaR) and some possibility that traditional VaR could be ineffectual to the nonlinear type of fluctuation in the market. In this paper, I try to bring self-organized criticality (SOC) into portfolio risk control. SOC would be well known as a model of decay in the natural world. I analyzed nonlinear type of fluctuation in the market as SOC and applied SOC to capture complicated market movement using threshold point of SOC and risk adjustments by scenario correlation as implicit signals. Threshold becomes the control parameter of risk exposure to set downside floor and forecast extreme nonlinear type of fluctuation under a certain probability. Simulation results would show synergy effect of portfolio risk control between SOC and absolute return strategy.

  5. Variation In Accountable Care Organization Spending And Sensitivity To Risk Adjustment: Implications For Benchmarking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rose, Sherri; Zaslavsky, Alan M; McWilliams, J Michael

    2016-03-01

    Spending targets (or benchmarks) for accountable care organizations (ACOs) participating in the Medicare Shared Savings Program must be set carefully to encourage program participation while achieving fiscal goals and minimizing unintended consequences, such as penalizing ACOs for serving sicker patients. Recently proposed regulatory changes include measures to make benchmarks more similar for ACOs in the same area with different historical spending levels. We found that ACOs vary widely in how their spending levels compare with those of other local providers after standard case-mix adjustments. Additionally adjusting for survey measures of patient health meaningfully reduced the variation in differences between ACO spending and local average fee-for-service spending, but substantial variation remained, which suggests that differences in care efficiency between ACOs and local non-ACO providers vary widely. Accordingly, measures to equilibrate benchmarks between high- and low-spending ACOs--such as setting benchmarks to risk-adjusted average fee-for-service spending in an area--should be implemented gradually to maintain participation by ACOs with high spending. Use of survey information also could help mitigate perverse incentives for risk selection and upcoding and limit unintended consequences of new benchmarking methodologies for ACOs serving sicker patients.

  6. Impact of selected risk factors on quality-adjusted life expectancy in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brønnum-Hansen, Henrik; Juel, Knud; Davidsen, Michael

    2007-01-01

    AIMS: The construct quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) combines mortality and overall health status and can be used to quantify the impact of risk factors on population health. The purpose of the study was to estimate the impact of tobacco smoking, high alcohol consumption, physical inactivity...... Health Survey 2000, and Danish EQ-5D values. RESULTS: The quality-adjusted life expectancy of 25-year-olds was 10-11 QALYs shorter for heavy smokers than for those who never smoke. The difference in life expectancy was 9-10 years. Men and women with high alcohol consumption could expect to lose about 5...... and 3 QALYs, respectively. Sedentary persons could expect to have about 7 fewer QALYs than physically active persons. Obesity shortened QALYs by almost 3 for men and 6 for women. CONCLUSIONS: Smoking, high alcohol consumption, physical inactivity, and obesity strongly reduce life expectancy and health...

  7. Covariate adjustment of cumulative incidence functions for competing risks data using inverse probability of treatment weighting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neumann, Anke; Billionnet, Cécile

    2016-06-01

    In observational studies without random assignment of the treatment, the unadjusted comparison between treatment groups may be misleading due to confounding. One method to adjust for measured confounders is inverse probability of treatment weighting. This method can also be used in the analysis of time to event data with competing risks. Competing risks arise if for some individuals the event of interest is precluded by a different type of event occurring before, or if only the earliest of several times to event, corresponding to different event types, is observed or is of interest. In the presence of competing risks, time to event data are often characterized by cumulative incidence functions, one for each event type of interest. We describe the use of inverse probability of treatment weighting to create adjusted cumulative incidence functions. This method is equivalent to direct standardization when the weight model is saturated. No assumptions about the form of the cumulative incidence functions are required. The method allows studying associations between treatment and the different types of event under study, while focusing on the earliest event only. We present a SAS macro implementing this method and we provide a worked example.

  8. Psychosocial Adjustment and Sibling Relationships in Siblings of Children with Autism Spectrum Disorder: Risk and Protective Factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walton, Katherine M.; Ingersoll, Brooke R.

    2015-01-01

    This study compared sibling adjustment and relationships in siblings of children with Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD-Sibs; n = 69) and siblings of children with typical development (TD-Sibs; n = 93). ASD-Sibs and TD-Sibs demonstrated similar emotional/behavioral adjustment. Older male ASD-Sibs were at increased risk for difficulties. Sibling…

  9. Reliability of risk-adjusted outcomes for profiling hospital surgical quality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krell, Robert W; Hozain, Ahmed; Kao, Lillian S; Dimick, Justin B

    2014-05-01

    Quality improvement platforms commonly use risk-adjusted morbidity and mortality to profile hospital performance. However, given small hospital caseloads and low event rates for some procedures, it is unclear whether these outcomes reliably reflect hospital performance. To determine the reliability of risk-adjusted morbidity and mortality for hospital performance profiling using clinical registry data. A retrospective cohort study was conducted using data from the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program, 2009. Participants included all patients (N = 55,466) who underwent colon resection, pancreatic resection, laparoscopic gastric bypass, ventral hernia repair, abdominal aortic aneurysm repair, and lower extremity bypass. Outcomes included risk-adjusted overall morbidity, severe morbidity, and mortality. We assessed reliability (0-1 scale: 0, completely unreliable; and 1, perfectly reliable) for all 3 outcomes. We also quantified the number of hospitals meeting minimum acceptable reliability thresholds (>0.70, good reliability; and >0.50, fair reliability) for each outcome. For overall morbidity, the most common outcome studied, the mean reliability depended on sample size (ie, how high the hospital caseload was) and the event rate (ie, how frequently the outcome occurred). For example, mean reliability for overall morbidity was low for abdominal aortic aneurysm repair (reliability, 0.29; sample size, 25 cases per year; and event rate, 18.3%). In contrast, mean reliability for overall morbidity was higher for colon resection (reliability, 0.61; sample size, 114 cases per year; and event rate, 26.8%). Colon resection (37.7% of hospitals), pancreatic resection (7.1% of hospitals), and laparoscopic gastric bypass (11.5% of hospitals) were the only procedures for which any hospitals met a reliability threshold of 0.70 for overall morbidity. Because severe morbidity and mortality are less frequent outcomes, their mean

  10. A comparison of administrative and physiologic predictive models in determining risk adjusted mortality rates in critically ill patients.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kyle B Enfield

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Hospitals are increasingly compared based on clinical outcomes adjusted for severity of illness. Multiple methods exist to adjust for differences between patients. The challenge for consumers of this information, both the public and healthcare providers, is interpreting differences in risk adjustment models particularly when models differ in their use of administrative and physiologic data. We set to examine how administrative and physiologic models compare to each when applied to critically ill patients. METHODS: We prospectively abstracted variables for a physiologic and administrative model of mortality from two intensive care units in the United States. Predicted mortality was compared through the Pearsons Product coefficient and Bland-Altman analysis. A subgroup of patients admitted directly from the emergency department was analyzed to remove potential confounding changes in condition prior to ICU admission. RESULTS: We included 556 patients from two academic medical centers in this analysis. The administrative model and physiologic models predicted mortalities for the combined cohort were 15.3% (95% CI 13.7%, 16.8% and 24.6% (95% CI 22.7%, 26.5% (t-test p-value<0.001. The r(2 for these models was 0.297. The Bland-Atlman plot suggests that at low predicted mortality there was good agreement; however, as mortality increased the models diverged. Similar results were found when analyzing a subgroup of patients admitted directly from the emergency department. When comparing the two hospitals, there was a statistical difference when using the administrative model but not the physiologic model. Unexplained mortality, defined as those patients who died who had a predicted mortality less than 10%, was a rare event by either model. CONCLUSIONS: In conclusion, while it has been shown that administrative models provide estimates of mortality that are similar to physiologic models in non-critically ill patients with pneumonia, our results

  11. Risk Adjustment for Congenital Heart Surgery Score as a Risk Factor for Candidemia in Children Undergoing Congenital Heart Defect Surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Araujo Motta, Fabio; Dalla-Costa, Libera Maria; Dominguez Muro, Marisol; Lenzi, Andrea; Picharski, Gledson Luiz; Burger, Marion

    2016-11-01

    Candida species are the primary cause of invasive fungal infection in hospitalized children. There are few data on risk factors for postoperative candidemia in pediatric patients with congenital heart defects. This study aimed to identify risk factors for candidemia in patients with congenital heart defects who underwent cardiac surgery. This was a case-control study conducted in patients admitted to a pediatric cardiology intensive care unit from January 2006 to December 2013. Candidemia cases were matched with control patients without candidemia. Multivariate analyses were conducted to determine predictive probabilities for the incidence of candidemia at a risk higher than 10%. Thirty patients diagnosed with candidemia (incidence: 0.7 cases/1000 patient days) were matched with 75 controls. Risk factors independently associated with candidemia included Risk Adjustment for Congenital Heart Surgery (RACHS-1) category ≥3 [odds ratio (OR) = 3.165, 95% confidence interval: 1.377-8.467], use of acid suppression therapy (OR = 1.9, 95% confidence interval: 0.949-3.979) and thrombocytopenia (OR = 2.2, 95% confidence interval: 1.2-4.2). Predictive probabilities ranged from 11% (only in RACHS-1 category ≥3) to 58% (combined RACHS-1 ≥3, thrombocytopenia and acid suppression therapy use). The case fatality rate within 30 days after candidemia was 50%. This is the first report using the RACHS-1 category as a risk factor for invasive candidiasis in patients with congenital heart defects in the pediatric intensive care unit. Further studies must be conducted to validate the risk factors for candidemia in this pediatric population.

  12. Risk factors and obstetric complications of large for gestational age births with adjustments for community effects: results from a new cohort study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cameron Cate M

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background High birth weight has serious adverse impacts on chronic health conditions and development in children. This study identifies the social determinants and obstetric complications of high birth weight adjusted for gestational age and baby gender. Methods Pregnant women were recruited from three maternity hospitals in South-East Queensland in Australia during antenatal clinic visits. A questionnaire was completed by each participant to elicit information on eco-epidemiological exposures. Perinatal information was extracted from hospital birth records. A hierarchical mixture regression model was used in the analysis to account for the heterogeneity of birth weights and identify risk factors and obstetric complications of births that were large for gestational age. A generalized linear mixed model was used to adjust for (random "community" effects. Results Pre-pregnancy obesity (adjusted OR = 2.73, 95% CI = 1.49-5.01, previous pregnancy (adjusted OR = 2.03, 95% CI = 1.08-3.81, and married mothers (adjusted OR = 1.85, 95% CI = 1.00-3.42 were significantly associated with large for gestational age babies. Subsequent complications included the increased need for delivery by caesarean sections or instrumental procedures (adjusted OR = 1.98, 95% CI = 1.10-3.55, resuscitation (adjusted OR = 2.52, 95% CI = 1.33-4.79, and transfer to intensive/special care nursery (adjusted OR = 3.76, 95% CI = 1.89-7.49. Communities associated with a higher proportion of large for gestational age births were identified. Conclusions Pre pregnancy obesity is the principal modifiable risk factor for large for gestational age births. Large for gestational age is an important risk factor for the subsequent obstetric complications. The findings improve the evidence-base on which to base preventive interventions to reduce the impact of high birth weight on maternal and child health.

  13. Capacitance-Based Frequency Adjustment of Micro Piezoelectric Vibration Generator

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xinhua Mao

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Micro piezoelectric vibration generator has a wide application in the field of microelectronics. Its natural frequency is unchanged after being manufactured. However, resonance cannot occur when the natural frequencies of a piezoelectric generator and the source of vibration frequency are not consistent. Output voltage of the piezoelectric generator will sharply decline. It cannot normally supply power for electronic devices. In order to make the natural frequency of the generator approach the frequency of vibration source, the capacitance FM technology is adopted in this paper. Different capacitance FM schemes are designed by different locations of the adjustment layer. The corresponding capacitance FM models have been established. Characteristic and effect of the capacitance FM have been simulated by the FM model. Experimental results show that the natural frequency of the generator could vary from 46.5 Hz to 42.4 Hz when the bypass capacitance value increases from 0 nF to 30 nF. The natural frequency of a piezoelectric vibration generator could be continuously adjusted by this method.

  14. Selection and adjustment of cropping system under risk:An empirical analysis based on vegetable cropping households in Beijing%风险条件下农户种植制度选择与调整——以北京市蔬菜种植户为例

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    朱宁; 马骥

    2013-01-01

    为深入研究风险条件下的农户种植制度的选择与调整行为,揭示农户多元化种植制度调整的合理性,从而为指导农户进行种植制度的选择与调整提供依据.利用对北京市蔬菜种植户抽样调查所获得的截面数据,采用MOTAD模型实证分析了蔬菜种植户的生产经营状况及其在风险条件下种植制度选择行为.结果表明:北京市蔬菜种植户在生产中主要面临价格风险,而且在风险条件下,农户会对其蔬菜种植结构进行调整.本研究结合效用最大化条件,测算出了适合于当地农户的蔬菜种植制度,即农户在效用最大化的条件下可以利用0.41 hm2的土地进行多元化的蔬菜种植,并达到预期收益.根据实地调研显示,北京市蔬菜种植户户均耕地面积达0.74 hm2,研究结果能够为当地的生产经营提供借鉴.%This article studies farmers' choice and adjustment behavior of cropping systems under the conditions of risk in depth,reveals the rationality of farmers' adjustment about diversified cropping systems,and thus provides a basis to guide farmers' selection and adjustment on the cropping system.Based on the cross-section data obtained from sampling survey of Beijing's vegetable farmers,this article adopts MOTAD model to analyze the production and operating status of the farmers and their cropping system choice under risk.The results indicated that Beijing vegetable farmers faced price risk mostly,and they might adjust their vegetable planting structure when they were in risk.Combined with utility maximization condition,the author calculated a reasonable vegetable cropping system suited to the local farmers,and that farmers could take diversity cultivation with 0.41 hm2 of land and then receive prospective return.According to the field research,every Beijing vegetable planting household had 0.74 hm2 of land area in average,so the results of this study could provide a reference for the local production and

  15. Psychological Adjustment: Are adopted adolescents at greater risk for negative outcomes?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Caroline Tozzi Reppold

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available During the last decades several authors have indicated that being an adopted child resulted in a higher risk of psychological maladjustment. The objective of this research was to investigate the changes in perception of parental styles in adopted and no-adopted adolescents Brazilians. The sample comprised 524 adolescents (68 were adopted and 456 were raised by their biological parents. The instruments used were a demographic questionnaire and theResponsiveness Scales and Parental Demands. The findings indicated that adoptive parents are significantly more indulgent than biological parents. In comparison, the adolescents described their biological parents as more negligent. The findings corroborated the transcultural effects of parental styles on the psychological adjustment and confirmed the hypothesis that the parental socialization strategies moderate the development of adoptedadolescent.

  16. Adjustment of lifetime risks of space radiation-induced cancer by the healthy worker effect and cancer misclassification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leif E. Peterson

    2015-12-01

    Conclusions. The typical life table approach for projecting lifetime risk of radiation-induced cancer mortality and incidence for astronauts and radiation workers can be improved by adjusting for HWE while simulating the uncertainty of input rates, input excess risk coefficients, and bias correction factors during multiple Monte Carlo realizations of the life table.

  17. Study on Posture Adjusting System of Spacecraft Based on Stewart Mechanism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Feng; Feng, Wei; Dai, Wei-Bing; Yi, Wang-Min; Liu, Guang-Tong; Zheng, Sheng-Yu

    In this paper, the design principles of adjusting parallel mechanisms is introduced, including mechanical subsystem, control sub-system and software sub-system. According to the design principles, key technologies for system of adjusting parallel mechanisms are analyzed. Finally, design specifications for system of adjusting parallel mechanisms are proposed based on requirement of spacecraft integration and it can apply to cabin docking, solar array panel docking and camera docking.

  18. Contextual, Ecological and Organizational Variations in Risk-Adjusted COPD and Asthma Hospitalization Rates of Rural Medicare Beneficiaries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wan, Thomas T H; Lin, Yi-Ling; Ortiz, Judith

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to examine what factors contributing to the variability in chronic obstructive pulmonary disorder (COPD) and asthma hospitalization rates when the influence of patient characteristics is being simultaneously considered by applying a risk adjustment method. A longitudinal analysis of COPD and asthma hospitalization of rural Medicare beneficiaries in 427 rural health clinics (RHCs) was conducted utilizing administrative data and inpatient and outpatient claims from Region 4. The repeated measures of risk-adjusted COPD and asthma admission rate were analyzed by growth curve modeling. A generalized estimating equation (GEE) method was used to identify the relevance of selected predictors in accounting for the variability in risk-adjusted admission rates for COPD and asthma. Both adjusted and unadjusted rates of COPD admission showed a slight decline from 2010 to 2013. The growth curve modeling showed the annual rates of change were gradually accentuated through time. GEE revealed that a moderate amount of variance (marginal R(2) = 0.66) in the risk-adjusted hospital admission rates for COPD and asthma was accounted for by contextual, ecological, and organizational variables. The contextual, ecological, and organizational factors are those associated with RHCs, not hospitals. We cannot infer how the variability in hospital practices in RHC service areas may have contributed to the disparities in admissions. Identification of RHCs with substantially higher rates than an average rate can portray the need for further enhancement of needed ambulatory or primary care services for the specific groups of RHCs. Because the risk-adjusted rates of hospitalization do not very by classification of rural area, future research should address the variation in a specific COPD and asthma condition of RHC patients. Risk-adjusted admission rates for COPD and asthma are influenced by the synergism of multiple contextual, ecological, and organizational factors

  19. Risk-Adjusted Analysis of Relevant Outcome Drivers for Patients after More Than Two Kidney Transplants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lampros Kousoulas

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Renal transplantation is the treatment of choice for patients suffering end-stage renal disease, but as the long-term renal allograft survival is limited, most transplant recipients will face graft loss and will be considered for a retransplantation. The goal of this study was to evaluate the patient and graft survival of the 61 renal transplant recipients after second or subsequent renal transplantation, transplanted in our institution between 1990 and 2010, and to identify risk factors related to inferior outcomes. Actuarial patient survival was 98.3%, 94.8%, and 88.2% after one, three, and five years, respectively. Actuarial graft survival was 86.8%, 80%, and 78.1% after one, three, and five years, respectively. Risk-adjusted analysis revealed that only age at the time of last transplantation had a significant influence on patient survival, whereas graft survival was influenced by multiple immunological and surgical factors, such as the number of HLA mismatches, the type of immunosuppression, the number of surgical complications, need of reoperation, primary graft nonfunction, and acute rejection episodes. In conclusion, third and subsequent renal transplantation constitute a valid therapeutic option, but inferior outcomes should be expected among elderly patients, hyperimmunized recipients, and recipients with multiple operations at the site of last renal transplantation.

  20. A risk-adjusted O-E CUSUM with monitoring bands for monitoring medical outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Rena Jie; Kalbfleisch, John D

    2013-03-01

    In order to monitor a medical center's survival outcomes using simple plots, we introduce a risk-adjusted Observed-Expected (O-E) Cumulative SUM (CUSUM) along with monitoring bands as decision criterion.The proposed monitoring bands can be used in place of a more traditional but complicated V-shaped mask or the simultaneous use of two one-sided CUSUMs. The resulting plot is designed to simultaneously monitor for failure time outcomes that are "worse than expected" or "better than expected." The slopes of the O-E CUSUM provide direct estimates of the relative risk (as compared to a standard or expected failure rate) for the data being monitored. Appropriate rejection regions are obtained by controlling the false alarm rate (type I error) over a period of given length. Simulation studies are conducted to illustrate the performance of the proposed method. A case study is carried out for 58 liver transplant centers. The use of CUSUM methods for quality improvement is stressed.

  1. Relations of growth in effortful control to family income, cumulative risk, and adjustment in preschool-age children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lengua, Liliana J; Moran, Lyndsey; Zalewski, Maureen; Ruberry, Erika; Kiff, Cara; Thompson, Stephanie

    2015-05-01

    The study examined growth in effortful control (executive control, delay ability) in relation to income, cumulative risk (aggregate of demographic and psychosocial risk factors), and adjustment in 306 preschool-age children (50 % girls, 50 % boys) from families representing a range of income (29 % at- or near-poverty; 28 % lower-income; 25 % middle-income; 18 % upper-income), with 4 assessments starting at 36-40 month. Income was directly related to levels of executive control and delay ability. Cumulative risk accounted for the effects of income on delay ability but not executive control. Higher initial executive control and slope of executive control and delay ability predicted academic readiness, whereas levels, but not growth, of executive control and delay ability predicted social competence and adjustment problems. Low income is a marker for lower effortful control, which demonstrates additive or mediating effects in the relation of income to children's preschool adjustment.

  2. Risk-based decisionmaking (Panel)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, T.H.

    1995-12-31

    By means of a panel discussion and extensive audience interaction, explore the current challenges and progress to date in applying risk considerations to decisionmaking related to low-level waste. This topic is especially timely because of the proposed legislation pertaining to risk-based decisionmaking and because of the increased emphasis placed on radiological performance assessments of low-level waste disposal.

  3. Identifying Military and Combat-Specific Risk Factors for Child Adjustment: Comparing High and Low Risk Military Families and Civilian Families

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-08-01

    preschool children, maternal emotional distress was a strong predictor of child psychopathology and poor achievement of developmental ...military-specific challenges, if any, of child adjustment and developmental milestones, and; 2) examine the role of spousal-perceived Service Member risk...INTRODUCTION There is an emerging consensus that parental combat deployment may increase risk for child development ; but details on what the

  4. Codified Risk Based Inspection Planning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Faber, M.H.

    2002-01-01

    Simplified methods are described for reliability- and risk-based inspection planning of steel structures. The methods simplify the practical aspects of identifying inspection plans complying both with specific requirements to the maximum acceptable annual probability of structural collapse...

  5. Design of motion adjusting system for space camera based on ultrasonic motor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Kai; Jin, Guang; Gu, Song; Yan, Yong; Sun, Zhiyuan

    2011-08-01

    Drift angle is a transverse intersection angle of vector of image motion of the space camera. Adjusting the angle could reduce the influence on image quality. Ultrasonic motor (USM) is a new type of actuator using ultrasonic wave stimulated by piezoelectric ceramics. They have many advantages in comparison with conventional electromagnetic motors. In this paper, some improvement was designed for control system of drift adjusting mechanism. Based on ultrasonic motor T-60 was designed the drift adjusting system, which is composed of the drift adjusting mechanical frame, the ultrasonic motor, the driver of Ultrasonic Motor, the photoelectric encoder and the drift adjusting controller. The TMS320F28335 DSP was adopted as the calculation and control processor, photoelectric encoder was used as sensor of position closed loop system and the voltage driving circuit designed as generator of ultrasonic wave. It was built the mathematic model of drive circuit of the ultrasonic motor T-60 using matlab modules. In order to verify the validity of the drift adjusting system, was introduced the source of the disturbance, and made simulation analysis. It designed the control systems of motor drive for drift adjusting system with the improved PID control. The drift angle adjusting system has such advantages as the small space, simple configuration, high position control precision, fine repeatability, self locking property and low powers. It showed that the system could accomplish the mission of drift angle adjusting excellent.

  6. A Proportional Hazards Regression Model for the Subdistribution with Covariates-adjusted Censoring Weight for Competing Risks Data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    He, Peng; Eriksson, Frank; Scheike, Thomas H.

    2016-01-01

    With competing risks data, one often needs to assess the treatment and covariate effects on the cumulative incidence function. Fine and Gray proposed a proportional hazards regression model for the subdistribution of a competing risk with the assumption that the censoring distribution and the cov......With competing risks data, one often needs to assess the treatment and covariate effects on the cumulative incidence function. Fine and Gray proposed a proportional hazards regression model for the subdistribution of a competing risk with the assumption that the censoring distribution...... and the covariates are independent. Covariate-dependent censoring sometimes occurs in medical studies. In this paper, we study the proportional hazards regression model for the subdistribution of a competing risk with proper adjustments for covariate-dependent censoring. We consider a covariate-adjusted weight...... function by fitting the Cox model for the censoring distribution and using the predictive probability for each individual. Our simulation study shows that the covariate-adjusted weight estimator is basically unbiased when the censoring time depends on the covariates, and the covariate-adjusted weight...

  7. A Comparative Study of CAPM and Seven Factors Risk Adjusted Return Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Madiha Riaz Bhatti

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available This study is a comparison and contrast of the predictive powers of two asset pricing models: CAPM and seven factor risk-return adjusted model, to explain the cross section of stock rate of returns in the financial sector listed at Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE. To test the models daily returns from January 2013 to February 2014 have been taken and the excess returns of portfolios are regressed on explanatory variables. The results of the tested models indicate that the models are valid and applicable in the financial market of Pakistan during the period under study, as the intercepts are not significantly different from zero. It is consequently established from the findings that all the explanatory variables explain the stock returns in the financial sector of KSE. In addition, the results of this study show that addition of more explanatory variables to the single factor CAPM results in reasonably high values of R2. These results provide substantial support to fund managers, investors and financial analysts in making investment decisions.

  8. The Dynamic Adjustment Mechanism between the Liquidity Risk Constraint and the Capital Structure of China Commercial Banks:Based on the Panel Simultaneous System Estimation%流动性风险约束与商业银行资本结构的动态调整机制——基于面板联立系统的经验与证据

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    杨有振; 王书华

    2015-01-01

    基于11家商业银行2004~2013年的面板数据,构建了流动性风险约束下商业银行资本结构变化的动态面板联立系统,证实了流动性风险约束对商业银行资本结构调整的时间效应,在流动性风险约束与商业银行资本结构间存在着相互动态作用机制. 应对流动性风险冲击,要求商业银行的资本调整在短期内应当侧重于对当期流动性风险约束的调整,而长期内应加强对流动性风险约束时滞效应的调整.%Based on 11 commercial banks 2004~2013 panel data, this article constructed the panel simultane-ous system on the liquidity risk constraint and the capital structure of China commercial banks.The article has con-firmed that the liquidity risk constraint has time effect on the commercial banks capital structure adjustment mecha-nism, there is a dynamic interaction mechanism in the capital structure and the liquidity risk constraint of the com-mercial banks.On dealing with the liquidity risk shock,commercial banks should adjust its capital structure mainly focus on the current liquidity risk constraints within the short time period, while strengthen the time lag adjustment during the long counterpart.

  9. FLC based adjustable speed drives for power quality enhancement

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sukumar Darly

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available This study describes a new approach based on fuzzy algorithm to suppress the current harmonic contents in the output of an inverter. Inverter system using fuzzy controllers provide ride-through capability during voltage sags, reduces harmonics, improves power factor and high reliability, less electromagnetic interference noise, low common mode noise and extends output voltage range. A feasible test is implemented by building a model of three-phase impedance source inverter, which is designed and controlled on the basis of proposed considerations. It is verified from the practical point of view that these new approaches are more effective and acceptable to minimize the harmonic distortion and improves the quality of power. Due to the complex algorithm, their realization often calls for a compromise between cost and performance. The proposed optimizing strategies may be applied in variable-frequency dc-ac inverters, UPSs, and ac drives.

  10. Relations of Growth in Effortful Control to Family Income, Cumulative Risk, and Adjustment in Preschool-age Children

    OpenAIRE

    Lengua, Liliana J.; Moran, Lyndsey; Zalewski, Maureen; Ruberry, Erika; Kiff, Cara; Thompson, Stephanie

    2015-01-01

    The study examined growth in effortful control (executive control, delay ability) in relation to income, cumulative risk (aggregate of demographic and psychosocial risk factors), and adjustment in 306 preschool-age children (50% girls, 50% boys) from families representing a range of income (29% at- or near-poverty; 28% lower-income; 25% middle-income; 18% upper-income), with 4 assessments starting at 36–40 mos. Income was directly related to levels of executive control and delay ability. Cumu...

  11. Associations between blood glucose and carotid intima-media thickness disappear after adjustment for shared risk factors: the KORA F4 study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bernd Kowall

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: The association between blood glucose and carotid intima-media thickness (CIMT is considered to be established knowledge. We aimed to assess whether associations between different measures of glycaemia and CIMT are actually independent of anthropometric variables and metabolic risk factors. Moreover, we checked published studies for the adjustment for shared risk factors of blood glucose and CIMT. METHODS: Fasting glucose, 2-hour glucose, HbA1c, and CIMT were measured in 31-81-years-old participants of the population-based Cooperative Health Research in the Region of Augsburg (KORA F4 study in Southern Germany (n = 2,663. CIMT was assessed according to the Rotterdam protocol. Linear and logistic regression models with adjustment for age, sex, anthropometric measures, hypertension, and dyslipidaemia were fitted to assess the association between continuous measures of glycaemia, and categories of glucose regulation, respectively, with CIMT. RESULTS: We found a 0.10 mm increase (95%-confidence interval: 0.08-0.12 in CIMT in subjects with compared to subjects without diabetes in crude analysis. This increase was not significant in age-sex adjusted models (p = 0.17. Likewise, neither impaired fasting glucose (p = 0.22 nor impaired glucose tolerance (p = 0.93 were associated with CIMT after adjustment for age, sex, and waist circumference. In multivariable adjusted models, age, sex, hypertension, waist circumference, HDL and LDL cholesterol, but neither fasting glucose nor 2-hour glucose nor HbA1c were associated with elevated CIMT. Literature findings are inconclusive regarding an independent association of glucose levels and CIMT. CONCLUSION: CIMT is highly dependent on traditional cardiovascular risk factors, but no relationships between blood glucose and CIMT were found after adjustment for age, sex, and anthropometric variables.

  12. Adjustments of the Pesticide Risk Index Used in Environmental Policy in Flanders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fevery, Davina; Peeters, Bob; Lenders, Sonia; Spanoghe, Pieter

    2015-01-01

    Indicators are used to quantify the pressure of pesticides on the environment. Pesticide risk indicators typically require weighting environmental exposure by a no effect concentration. An indicator based on spread equivalents (ΣSeq) is used in environmental policy in Flanders (Belgium). The pesticide risk for aquatic life is estimated by weighting active ingredient usage by the ratio of their maximum allowable concentration and their soil halflife. Accurate estimates of total pesticide usage in the region are essential in such calculations. Up to 2012, the environmental impact of pesticides was estimated on sales figures provided by the Federal Government. Since 2013, pesticide use is calculated based on results from the Farm Accountancy Data Network (FADN). The estimation of pesticide use was supplemented with data for non-agricultural use based on sales figures of amateur use provided by industry and data obtained from public services. The Seq-indicator was modified to better reflect reality. This method was applied for the period 2009-2012 and showed differences between estimated use and sales figures of pesticides. The estimated use of pesticides based on accountancy data is more accurate compared to sales figures. This approach resulted in a better view on pesticide use and its respective environmental impact in Flanders.

  13. Designing and evaluating risk-based surveillance systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Willeberg, Preben; Nielsen, Liza Rosenbaum; Salman, Mo

    2012-01-01

    Risk-based surveillance systems reveal occurrence of disease or infection in a sample of population units, which are selected on the basis of risk factors for the condition under study. The purpose of such systems for supporting practical animal disease policy formulations and management decisions...... are: A: to detect an emerging disease or infection, if it becomes introduced into a population; or B: to substantiate freedom from a condition in a population; or C: to detect cases and estimate the prevalence of an endemic condition in a population. In risk-based surveillance these aims should be met...... applicable risk estimate for use in designing and evaluating a risk-based surveillance system would be a crude (unadjusted) relative risk, odds ratio or apparent prevalence. Risk estimates found in the published literature, however, are often the results of multivariable analyses implicitly adjusting...

  14. Emotional Intelligence and Identity Style as Risk Factors for High-Risk Behavior in Prisoners: The Mediating Role of Resiliency and Social Adjustment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maktabi

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Background A motivation for the intense scientific interest in high-risk behaviors is to do with firmly held belief that behaviors such as substance abuse and delinquency have ubiquitous, catastrophic outcomes. Objectives The current study aimed to examine a model of risk factors for high-risk behaviors in prisoners. It was hypothesized that emotional intelligence and identity style have an indirect effect on high-risk behaviors via the mediating role of social adjustment and resiliency. Materials and Methods The sample consisted of 293 prisoners that were selected via simple random sampling and participated in this research by completing Schutte’s emotional intelligence scale, Berzonsky identity style inventory, social adjustment scale, Conner-Davidson’s resilience scale, and high risk behavior scale; all these instruments are reliable and have been validated. Structural equation modeling (SEM through SPSS 20 and AMOS 20 were used for data analysis. Results The results suggested that the model had good fit (root mean square of approximation = 0.07, comparative fit index = 0.95, normed fit index = 0.91, goodness of fit index =0.93 with the data. Accordingly, the indirect effect of resiliency on high-risk behavior via social adjustment and resiliency, and the indirect effect of identity style on high-risk behavior via emotional intelligence and resiliency were approved. Conclusions Our findings suggest the importance of high-risk behaviors in terms of etiological pathways, maintenance process and treatment interventions.

  15. Adjustment for smoking reduces radiation risk: fifth analysis of mortality of nuclear industry workers in Japan, 1999-2010

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kudo, S.; Ishida, J.; Yoshimoto, K.; Mizuno, S.; Ohshima, S.; Kasagi, F., E-mail: s_kudo@rea.or.jp [Instituto of Radiation Epidemiology, Radiation Effects Association, 1-9-16 Kajicho, Chiyoda-ku, 101-0044 Tokyo (Japan)

    2015-10-15

    Full text: Many cohort studies among nuclear industry workers have been carried out to determine the possible health effects of low-level radiation. In those studies, confounding factors, for example, age was adjusted to exclude the effect of difference of mortality by age to estimate radiation risk. But there are few studies adjusting for smoking that is known as a strong factor which affects mortality. Radiation Effects Association (Rea) initiated a cohort study of nuclear industry workers mortality in 1990. To examine non-radiation factors confounding on the mortality risk among the radiation workers, Rea have performed life-style questionnaire surveys among the part of workers at 1997 and 2003 and found the correlation between radiation dose and smoking rate. Mortality follow-up were made on 75,442 male respondents for an average of 8.3 years during the observation period 1999-2010. Estimates of Excess Relative Risk percent (Err %) per 10 mSv were obtained by using the Poisson regression. The Err for all causes was statistically significant (1.05 (90 % CI 0.31 : 1.80)), but no longer significant after adjusting for smoking (0.45 (-0.24 : 1.13)). The Err for all cancers excluding leukemia was not significant (0.92 (-0.30 : 2.16)), but after adjusting for smoking, it decreased (0.36 (-0.79 : 1.50)). Thus smoking has a large effect to obscure a radiation risk, so adjustment for smoking is important to estimate radiation risk. (Author)

  16. Capital and Portfolio Risk under the Solvency Regulation Supervision Analysis of Partial Adjustment Model based on Property-liability Companies%偿付能力监管下韵资本与组合风险——基于产险公司局部联立调整模型的分析

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王丽珍; 李秀芳

    2012-01-01

    Ever since 2007, capital and stock increases trend m insurance compamc~ o~ ,~ , the required capital size are expanding, and also the frequency of capital increasing is improving. Although the ap- pearance of this phenomenon is inevitable, owing to the costliness and scarcity of capital, insurance industry and China Insurance Regulatory Commission all have paid more attention to the upsurge about capital. Furthermore, if the insurance companies can' t raise capital timely, they will not operate normally, and then it is bound to endanger social stability and the interest of insurance consumers. So it is meaningful to study the capital under the solvency regulation supervision and the special development stage. The capital is applicable to withstand unexpected loss, in this sense, the adjustment of capital is corresponding with risk level. Thus, we combine capital with risk to re- search the development of china' s property-liability companies. According to the research paradigm of banking studies about capital structure and portfolio risk, we employ partial adjustment model to the insurance area. Through the panel data of 34 Property-Liability insurance companies, this paper conduct the Three-stage least square ( 3 SLS) procedure to estimate a simultaneous equations model and examines the impact of capital determina- tion and portfolio risk under solvency regulation. In addition to this, we also consider the other factors, such as the structure of lines, the scale of asset, the reinsurance ratio, the return of asset under the research framework. Based on this, robustness tests with two broad heading including five types subsamples also present consistent results. Our key findings include four aspects. First of all, we find that capitalized insurers increase capital faster than under- capitalized insurers, which is different from the condition of American. This result implies that, on account of the rapid development of insurance industry currently, insurance

  17. Risk and Resilience Factors for Combat-Related Posttraumatic Psychopathology and Post Combat Adjustment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-05-01

    Related Posttraumatic Psychopathology and Post Combat Adjustment PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR: Joseph R. Calabrese, MD CONTRACTING ORGANIZATION...REPORT DATE 01-05-2012 2. REPORT TYPE Final 3. DATES COVERED 07 May 2007 – 5 Apr 2012 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b...conducted using maximum likelihood estimation with a mean-adjusted chi-square ( MLM ) (the Satorra-Bentler chi-square value), which is robust to non

  18. Can parents adjust to the idea that their child is at risk for a sudden death? : Psychological impact of risk for Long QT Syndrome

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Grosfeld, FJM; van Tintelen, JP; van Langen, IM; Wilde, AAM; van den Bout, J; ten Kroode, HFJ

    2005-01-01

    Can a parent adjust to the idea that its child is at risk for a sudden death? This question is raised by a diagnostic procedure in which children were tested for an inherited Long QT Syndrome (LQTS). This potentially life-threatening but treatable cardiac arrhythmia syndrome may cause sudden death,

  19. Performance Evaluation of Electronic Inductor-Based Adjustable Speed Drives with Respect to Line Current Interharmonics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Soltani, Hamid; Davari, Pooya; Zare, Firuz;

    2017-01-01

    Electronic Inductor (EI)-based front-end rectifiers have a large potential to become the prominent next generation of Active Front End (AFE) topology used in many applications including Adjustable Speed Drives (ASDs) for systems having unidirectional power flow. The EI-based ASD is mostly attract...

  20. Thickness and Shape Synthetical Adjustment for DC Mill Based on Dynamic Nerve-Fuzzy Control

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    JIA Chun-yu; WANG Ying-rui; ZHOU Hui-feng

    2004-01-01

    Due to the complexity of thickness and shape synthetical adjustment system and the difficulties to build a mathematical model, a thickness and shape synthetical adjustment scheme on DC mill based on dynamic nerve-fuzzy control was put forward, and a self-organizing fuzzy control model was established. The structure of the network can be optimized dynamically. In the course of studying, the network can automatically adjust its structure based on the specific questions and make its structure the optimal. The input and output of the network are fuzzy sets, and the trained network can complete the composite relation, the fuzzy inference. For decreasing the off-line training time of BP network, the fuzzy sets are encoded. The simulation results indicate that the self-organizing fuzzy control based on dynamic neural network is better than traditional decoupling PID control.

  1. The Effectiveness of Functional Family Therapy in Reducing Adolescent Mental Health Risk and Family Adjustment Difficulties in an Irish Context.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartnett, Dan; Carr, Alan; Sexton, Thomas

    2016-06-01

    To evaluate the effectiveness of Functional Family Therapy (FFT) 42 cases were randomized to FFT and 55 to a waiting-list control group. Minimization procedures controlled the effects of potentially confounding baseline variables. Cases were treated by a team of five therapists who implemented FFT with a moderate degree of fidelity. Rates of clinical recovery were significantly higher in the FFT group than in the control group. Compared to the comparison group, parents in the FFT group reported significantly greater improvement in adolescent problems on the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ) and both parents and adolescents reported improvements in family adjustment on the Systemic Clinical Outcomes and Routine Evaluation (SCORE). In addition, 93% of youth and families in the treatment condition completed FFT. Improvements shown immediately after treatment were sustained at 3-month follow-up. Results provide a current demonstration of FFT's effectiveness for youth with behavior problems in community-based settings, expand our understanding of the range of positive outcomes of FFT to include mental health risk and family-defined problem severity and impact, and suggests that it is an effective intervention when implemented in an Irish context. © 2015 Family Process Institute.

  2. Bias adjustment of satellite-based precipitation estimation using gauge observations: A case study in Chile

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Zhongwen; Hsu, Kuolin; Sorooshian, Soroosh; Xu, Xinyi; Braithwaite, Dan; Verbist, Koen M. J.

    2016-04-01

    Satellite-based precipitation estimates (SPEs) are promising alternative precipitation data for climatic and hydrological applications, especially for regions where ground-based observations are limited. However, existing satellite-based rainfall estimations are subject to systematic biases. This study aims to adjust the biases in the Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks-Cloud Classification System (PERSIANN-CCS) rainfall data over Chile, using gauge observations as reference. A novel bias adjustment framework, termed QM-GW, is proposed based on the nonparametric quantile mapping approach and a Gaussian weighting interpolation scheme. The PERSIANN-CCS precipitation estimates (daily, 0.04°×0.04°) over Chile are adjusted for the period of 2009-2014. The historical data (satellite and gauge) for 2009-2013 are used to calibrate the methodology; nonparametric cumulative distribution functions of satellite and gauge observations are estimated at every 1°×1° box region. One year (2014) of gauge data was used for validation. The results show that the biases of the PERSIANN-CCS precipitation data are effectively reduced. The spatial patterns of adjusted satellite rainfall show high consistency to the gauge observations, with reduced root-mean-square errors and mean biases. The systematic biases of the PERSIANN-CCS precipitation time series, at both monthly and daily scales, are removed. The extended validation also verifies that the proposed approach can be applied to adjust SPEs into the future, without further need for ground-based measurements. This study serves as a valuable reference for the bias adjustment of existing SPEs using gauge observations worldwide.

  3. Adjustable muscle plication: a new surgical technique for strabismic patients with high risk for anterior segment ischemia

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Carlos; Laria; David; P.Pi?ero

    2015-01-01

    <正>INTRODUCTION Anterior ciliary arteries provide 70%of the vascular supply of the anterior segment.A significant interruption of the vascular flow of these arteries increases the risk for anterior ischemia.Although the frequency of this special condition is low after strabismus surgery(1:13 000)[1],its effects may involve substantial visual problems[2].We report the successful outcome of a new surgical approach for strabismus management in a case of high risk for anterior ischemia.Specifically,we show the correction of the horizontal ocular deviation by means of an adjustable muscle

  4. Psychosocial Adjustment and Perceived Risk Among Adolescent Girls From Families With BRCA1/2 or Breast Cancer History.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bradbury, Angela R; Patrick-Miller, Linda; Schwartz, Lisa A; Egleston, Brian L; Henry-Moss, Dare; Domchek, Susan M; Daly, Mary B; Tuchman, Lisa; Moore, Cynthia; Rauch, Paula K; Shorter, Rebecca; Karpink, Kelsey; Sands, Colleen Burke

    2016-10-01

    To evaluate the impact of breast cancer family history and maternal BRCA1/2 mutation on the psychosocial adjustment and perceived risk in girls age 11 to 19 years old. Girls age 11 to 19 years old with one or more relatives with breast cancer or a familial BRCA1/2 mutation (breast cancer family history [BCFH] positive, n = 208; n = 69 with BRCA1/2-positive mother), peers (BCFH negative, n = 112), and their mothers completed assessments of psychosocial adjustment, breast cancer-specific distress, and perceived risk of breast cancer. General psychosocial adjustment did not differ significantly between BCFH-positive and BCFH-negative girls, either by self-report or mother report, except for higher self-esteem among BCFH-positive girls (P = .01). BCFH-positive girls had higher breast cancer-specific distress than BCFH-negative girls (P < .001), but girls from BRCA1/2-positive families did not differ from other BCFH-positive peers. BCFH-positive girls were more likely to report themselves at increased self-risk for breast cancer in adulthood than BCFH-negative peers (74% v 33%, respectively; P ≤ .001). Girls from BRCA1/2-positive families were more likely than other BCFH-positive and BCFH-negative peers to report themselves at increased risk (P < .001). In all groups, perceived risk of breast cancer was associated with older age. Higher breast cancer-specific distress among adolescent girls was associated with higher self-perceived risk of breast cancer and higher maternal breast cancer-specific distress. Adolescent girls from BRCA1/2-positive and breast cancer families have higher self-esteem and do not have poorer psychosocial adjustment than peers. However, they do experience greater breast cancer-specific distress and perceived risk of breast cancer, particularly among older girls. Understanding the impact is important to optimize responses to growing up in families at familial and genetic risk for breast cancer, particularly given the debate over the genetic

  5. Fuzzy based risk register for construction project risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuchta, Dorota; Ptaszyńska, Ewa

    2017-07-01

    The paper contains fuzzy based risk register used to identify risks which appear in construction projects and to assess their attributes. Risk is considered here as a possible event with negative consequences for the project [4]. We use different risk attributes in the proposed risk register. Values of risk attributes are generated by using fuzzy numbers. Specific risk attributes have different importance for project managers of construction projects. To compare specific risk attributes we use methods of fuzzy numbers ranking. The main strengths of the proposed concept in managing construction projects are also presented in the paper.

  6. Pathways of Parenting Style on Adolescents' College Adjustment, Academic Achievement, and Alcohol Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kenney, Shannon R.; Lac, Andrew; Hummer, Justin F.; Grimaldi, Elizabeth M.; LaBrie, Joseph W.

    2015-01-01

    This study examined the pathways of parenting style (permissive, authoritarian, and authoritative) to alcohol consumption and consequences through the mediators of college adjustment and academic achievement (grade point average [GPA]). Participants were 289 students from a private, mid-size, West Coast university (mean age 19.01 years, 58.8%…

  7. Pathways of Parenting Style on Adolescents' College Adjustment, Academic Achievement, and Alcohol Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kenney, Shannon R.; Lac, Andrew; Hummer, Justin F.; Grimaldi, Elizabeth M.; LaBrie, Joseph W.

    2015-01-01

    This study examined the pathways of parenting style (permissive, authoritarian, and authoritative) to alcohol consumption and consequences through the mediators of college adjustment and academic achievement (grade point average [GPA]). Participants were 289 students from a private, mid-size, West Coast university (mean age 19.01 years, 58.8%…

  8. Interpersonal circumplex descriptions of psychosocial risk factors for physical illness: application to hostility, neuroticism, and marital adjustment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Timothy W; Traupman, Emily K; Uchino, Bert N; Berg, Cynthia A

    2010-06-01

    Personality risk factors for physical illness are typically studied individually and apart from risk factors reflecting the social environment, potentially fostering a piecemeal understanding of psychosocial influences on health. Because it can be used to describe both personality and social relationship processes, the interpersonal circumplex (IPC) provides an integrative approach to psychosocial risk. In 301 married couples we examined IPC correlates of 3 risk factor domains: anger, hostility, and aggressiveness; neuroticism; and marital adjustment. Risk factors displayed IPC locations ranging from hostile dominance (e.g., verbal aggressiveness, marital conflict) to hostility (e.g., anger) to hostile submissiveness (e.g., anxiety, depression); protective factors (marital satisfaction and support) reflected warmth or friendliness in the IPC. Similar descriptions were found using self-reports and spouse ratings of IPC dimensions, indicating that interpersonal styles associated with risk factors do not simply reflect common method variance. Findings identify interpersonal processes reflecting low affiliation or high hostility as a common component of risk and indicate distinctions among risk factors along the dominance dimension.

  9. Simulation-based coefficients for adjusting climate impact on energy consumption of commercial buildings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Na; Makhmalbaf, Atefe; Srivastava, Viraj; Hathaway, John E.

    2016-11-23

    This paper presents a new technique for and the results of normalizing building energy consumption to enable a fair comparison among various types of buildings located near different weather stations across the U.S. The method was developed for the U.S. Building Energy Asset Score, a whole-building energy efficiency rating system focusing on building envelope, mechanical systems, and lighting systems. The Asset Score is calculated based on simulated energy use under standard operating conditions. Existing weather normalization methods such as those based on heating and cooling degrees days are not robust enough to adjust all climatic factors such as humidity and solar radiation. In this work, over 1000 sets of climate coefficients were developed to separately adjust building heating, cooling, and fan energy use at each weather station in the United States. This paper also presents a robust, standardized weather station mapping based on climate similarity rather than choosing the closest weather station. This proposed simulated-based climate adjustment was validated through testing on several hundreds of thousands of modeled buildings. Results indicated the developed climate coefficients can isolate and adjust for the impacts of local climate for asset rating.

  10. Dimensionality of the Chinese Dyadic Adjustment Scale Based on Confirmatory Factor Analyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shek, Daniel T. L.; Cheung, C. K.

    2008-01-01

    Based on the responses of 1,501 Chinese married adults to the Chinese version of the Dyadic Adjustment Scale (C-DAS), confirmatory factor analyses showed that four factors were abstracted from the C-DAS (Dyadic Consensus, Dyadic Cohesion, Dyadic Satisfaction and Affectional Expression) and these four primary factors were subsumed under a…

  11. Evaluating changes in matrix based, recovery-adjusted concentrations in paired data for pesticides in groundwater

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zimmerman, Tammy M.; Breen, Kevin J.

    2012-01-01

    Pesticide concentration data for waters from selected carbonate-rock aquifers in agricultural areas of Pennsylvania were collected in 1993–2009 for occurrence and distribution assessments. A set of 30 wells was visited once in 1993–1995 and again in 2008–2009 to assess concentration changes. The data include censored matched pairs (nondetections of a compound in one or both samples of a pair). A potentially improved approach for assessing concentration changes is presented where (i) concentrations are adjusted with models of matrix-spike recovery and (ii) area-wide temporal change is tested by use of the paired Prentice-Wilcoxon (PPW) statistical test. The PPW results for atrazine, simazine, metolachlor, prometon, and an atrazine degradate, deethylatrazine (DEA), are compared using recovery-adjusted and unadjusted concentrations. Results for adjusted compared with unadjusted concentrations in 2008–2009 compared with 1993–1995 were similar for atrazine and simazine (significant decrease; 95% confidence level) and metolachlor (no change) but differed for DEA (adjusted, decrease; unadjusted, increase) and prometon (adjusted, decrease; unadjusted, no change). The PPW results were different on recovery-adjusted compared with unadjusted concentrations. Not accounting for variability in recovery can mask a true change, misidentify a change when no true change exists, or assign a direction opposite of the true change in concentration that resulted from matrix influences on extraction and laboratory method performance. However, matrix-based models of recovery derived from a laboratory performance dataset from multiple studies for national assessment, as used herein, rather than time- and study-specific recoveries may introduce uncertainty in recovery adjustments for individual samples that should be considered in assessing change.

  12. Business cycle effects on portfolio credit risk: A simple FX Adjustment for a factor model

    OpenAIRE

    Sokolov, Yuri

    2010-01-01

    The recent economic crisis on the demand side of the economy affects the trends and volatilities of the exchange rates as well as the operating conditions of borrowers in emerging market economies. But the exchange rate depreciation creates both winners and losers. With a weaker exchange rate, exporters and net holders of foreign assets will benefit, and vice verse, those relying on import and net debtors in foreign currency will be hurt. This paper presents a simple FX adjustment framewor...

  13. The Prediction of Social Adjustment Based on Emotional and Spiritual Intelligence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kazem Geram

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Based on emotional and spiritual intelligence of male teachers in Arak City, this correlational study attempts to shed light upon the prediction of social adjustment. The statistical population consists of all 650 male teachers of high schools in Arak city. The sampling method was conducted through cluster random sampling among 300 participants. Three instruments of Social Adjustment Scale (SAS, BarOn Questionnaire of Emotional Intelligence (EQ-i and spiritual intelligence questionnaire by Badii et al., are used. To investigate the hypotheses, we used Pearson Correlation Coefficient and to homogeneity of variance, the Levene's test was utilized. By SPSS Software through Pearson correlation analysis, the collected data were analyzed. The results show that the relation of social adjustment with emotional intelligence and spiritual intelligence is significant.

  14. Contact Angle Adjustment in Equation of States Based Pseudo-Potential Model

    CERN Document Server

    Hu, Anjie; Uddin, Rizwan

    2015-01-01

    Single component pseudo-potential lattice Boltzmann model has been widely applied in multiphase simulation due to its simplicity and stability. In many research, it has been claimed that this model can be stable for density ratios larger than 1000, however, the application of the model is still limited to small density ratios when the contact angle is considered. The reason is that the original contact angle adjustment method influences the stability of the model. Moreover, simulation results in present work show that, by applying the contact angle adjustment method, the density distribution near the wall is artificially changed, and the contact angle is dependent on the surface tension. Hence, it is very inconvenient to apply this method with a fixed contact angle, and the accuracy of the model cannot be guaranteed. To solve these problems, a contact angle adjustment method based on the geometry analysis is proposed and numerically compared with the original method. Simulation results show that, with the new...

  15. An adjustable flow restrictor for implantable infusion pumps based on porous ceramics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jannsen, Holger; Klein, Stephan; Nestler, Bodo

    2015-08-01

    This paper describes an adjustable flow restrictor for use in gas-driven implantable infusion pumps, which is based on the resistance of a flow through a porous ceramic material. The flow inside the walls of a ceramic tube can be adjusted between 270 nl/min and 1260 nl/min by changing the flow path length in the ceramic over a distance of 14 mm. The long-term stability of the flow restrictor has been analyzed. A drift of -8% from the nominal value was observed, which lies within the required tolerance of ±10% after 30 days. The average time needed to change the flow rate is 40 s. In addition, the maximum adjustment time was 110 s, which also lies within the specification.

  16. Singularity-sensitive gauge-based radar rainfall adjustment methods for urban hydrological applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L.-P. Wang

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Gauge-based radar rainfall adjustment techniques have been widely used to improve the applicability of radar rainfall estimates to large-scale hydrological modelling. However, their use for urban hydrological applications is limited as they were mostly developed based upon Gaussian approximations and therefore tend to smooth off so-called "singularities" (features of a non-Gaussian field that can be observed in the fine-scale rainfall structure. Overlooking the singularities could be critical, given that their distribution is highly consistent with that of local extreme magnitudes. This deficiency may cause large errors in the subsequent urban hydrological modelling. To address this limitation and improve the applicability of adjustment techniques at urban scales, a method is proposed herein which incorporates a local singularity analysis into existing adjustment techniques and allows the preservation of the singularity structures throughout the adjustment process. In this paper the proposed singularity analysis is incorporated into the Bayesian merging technique and the performance of the resulting singularity-sensitive method is compared with that of the original Bayesian (non singularity-sensitive technique and the commonly-used mean field bias adjustment. This test is conducted using as case study four storm events observed in the Portobello catchment (53 km2 (Edinburgh, UK during 2011 and for which radar estimates, dense rain gauge and sewer flow records, as well as a recently-calibrated urban drainage model were available. The results suggest that, in general, the proposed singularity-sensitive method can effectively preserve the non-normality in local rainfall structure, while retaining the ability of the original adjustment techniques to generate nearly unbiased estimates. Moreover, the ability of the singularity-sensitive technique to preserve the non-normality in rainfall estimates often leads to better reproduction of the urban

  17. Positioning resilience for 2015: the role of resistance, incremental adjustment and transformation in disaster risk management policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matyas, David; Pelling, Mark

    2015-01-01

    Resilience is a ubiquitous term in disaster risk management and is an increasingly prominent concept in early discussions focused on elaborating the post-2015 international policy landscape. Riddled with competing meanings and diverse policy implications, however, it is a concept caught between the abstract and operational. This paper provides a review of the rise to prominence of the concept of resilience and advances an elaboration of the related concepts of resistance, incremental adjustment and transformation. We argue that these concepts can contribute to decision-making by offering three distinct options for risk management policy. In order to deliberately and effectively choose among these options, we suggest that critical reflexivity is a prerequisite, necessitating improved decision-making capacity if varied perspectives (including those of the most vulnerable) are to be involved in the selection of the best approach to risk management. © 2014 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2014.

  18. The HHS-HCC Risk Adjustment Model for Individual and Small

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — Volume 4, Issue 3 of the Medicare and Medicaid Research Review includes three articles describing the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) developed risk...

  19. Codified Risk Based Inspection Planning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Faber, M.H.

    2002-01-01

    and member failure and at the same time minimizing overall total service life costs. Generic inspections plans can then be established for representative fatigue sensitive details in terms of characteristics such as FDF (Fatigue Design Factor), detail type, RSR (Reserve Strength Ratio) given fatigue failure......Simplified methods are described for reliability- and risk-based inspection planning of steel structures. The methods simplify the practical aspects of identifying inspection plans complying both with specific requirements to the maximum acceptable annual probability of structural collapse...

  20. Why and when is ethnic harassment a risk for immigrant adolescents' school adjustment? understanding the processes and conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bayram Özdemir, Sevgi; Stattin, Håkan

    2014-08-01

    Ethnically harassed immigrant youth are at risk for experiencing a wide range of school adjustment problems. However, it is still unclear why and under what conditions experiencing ethnic harassment leads to school adjustment difficulties. To address this limitation in the literature, we examined two important questions. First, we investigated whether self-esteem and/or depressive symptoms would mediate the associations between ethnic harassment and poor school adjustment among immigrant youth. Second, we examined whether immigrant youths' perception of school context would play a buffering role in the pathways between ethnic harassment and school adjustment difficulties. The sample (n = 330; M age = 14.07, SD = .90; 49% girls at T1) was drawn from a longitudinal study in Sweden. The results revealed that experiencing ethnic harassment led to a decrease in immigrant youths' self-esteem over time, and that youths' expectations of academic failure increased. Further, youths' relationships with their teachers and their perceptions of school democracy moderated the mediation processes. Specifically, when youth had poor relationships with their teachers or perceived their school context as less democratic, being exposed to ethnic harassment led to a decrease in their self-esteem. In turn, they reported low school satisfaction and perceived themselves as being unsuccessful in school. Such indirect effects were not observed when youth had high positive relationships with their teachers or perceived their school as offering a democratic environment. These findings highlight the importance of understanding underlying processes and conditions in the examination of the effects of ethnic devaluation experiences in order to reach a more comprehensive understanding of immigrant youths' school adjustment.

  1. Adjusting thresholds of satellite-based convective initiation interest fields based on the cloud environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jewett, Christopher P.; Mecikalski, John R.

    2013-11-01

    The Time-Space Exchangeability (TSE) concept states that similar characteristics of a given property are closely related statistically for objects or features within close proximity. In this exercise, the objects considered are growing cumulus clouds, and the data sets to be considered in a statistical sense are geostationary satellite infrared (IR) fields that help describe cloud growth rates, cloud top heights, and whether cloud tops contain significant amounts of frozen hydrometeors. In this exercise, the TSE concept is applied to alter otherwise static thresholds of IR fields of interest used within a satellite-based convective initiation (CI) nowcasting algorithm. The convective environment in which the clouds develop dictate growth rate and precipitation processes, and cumuli growing within similar mesoscale environments should have similar growth characteristics. Using environmental information provided by regional statistics of the interest fields, the thresholds are examined for adjustment toward improving the accuracy of 0-1 h CI nowcasts. Growing cumulus clouds are observed within a CI algorithm through IR fields for many 1000 s of cumulus cloud objects, from which statistics are generated on mesoscales. Initial results show a reduction in the number of false alarms of ~50%, yet at the cost of eliminating approximately ~20% of the correct CI forecasts. For comparison, static thresholds (i.e., with the same threshold values applied across the entire satellite domain) within the CI algorithm often produce a relatively high probability of detection, with false alarms being a significant problem. In addition to increased algorithm performance, a benefit of using a method like TSE is that a variety of unknown variables that influence cumulus cloud growth can be accounted for without need for explicit near-cloud observations that can be difficult to obtain.

  2. Structural-Parameter-Based Jumping-Height-and-Distance Adjustment and Obstacle Sensing of a Bio-Inspired Jumping Robot

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jun Zhang

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Jumping-height-and-distance (JHD active adjustment capability is important for jumping robots to overcome different sizes of obstacle. This paper proposes a new structural parameter-based JHD active adjustment approach for our previous jumping robot. First, the JHD adjustments, modifying the lengths of different legs of the robot, are modelled and simulated. Then, three mechanisms for leg-length adjustment are proposed and compared, and the screw-and-nut mechanism is selected. And for adjusting of different structural parameters using this mechanism, the one with the best JHD adjusting performance and the lowest mechanical complexity is adopted. Thirdly, an obstacle-distance-and-height (ODH detection method using only one infrared sensor is designed. Finally, the performances of the proposed methods are tested. Experimental results show that the jumping-height-and distance adjustable ranges are 0.11 m and 0.96 m, respectively, which validates the effectiveness of the proposed JHD adjustment method.

  3. Behavioral adjustments of African herbivores to predation risk by lions: spatiotemporal variations influence habitat use.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valeix, M; Loveridge, A J; Chamaillé-Jammes, S; Davidson, Z; Murindagomo, F; Fritz, H; Macdonald, D W

    2009-01-01

    Predators may influence their prey populations not only through direct lethal effects, but also through indirect behavioral changes. Here, we combined spatiotemporal fine-scale data from GPS radio collars on lions with habitat use information on 11 African herbivores in Hwange National Park (Zimbabwe) to test whether the risk of predation by lions influenced the distribution of herbivores in the landscape. Effects of long-term risk of predation (likelihood of lion presence calculated over four months) and short-term risk of predation (actual presence of lions in the vicinity in the preceding 24 hours) were contrasted. The long-term risk of predation by lions appeared to influence the distributions of all browsers across the landscape, but not of grazers. This result strongly suggests that browsers and grazers, which face different ecological constraints, are influenced at different spatial and temporal scales in the variation of the risk of predation by lions. The results also show that all herbivores tend to use more open habitats preferentially when lions are in their vicinity, probably an effective anti-predator behavior against such an ambush predator. Behaviorally induced effects of lions may therefore contribute significantly to structuring African herbivore communities, and hence possibly their effects on savanna ecosystems.

  4. Risk-Adjusted Impact of Administrative Costs on the Distribution of Terminal Wealth for Long-Term Investment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Montserrat Guillén

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The impact of administrative costs on the distribution of terminal wealth is approximated using a simple formula applicable to many investment situations. We show that the reduction in median returns attributable to administrative fees is usually at least twice the amount of the administrative costs charged for most investment funds, when considering a risk-adjustment correction over a reasonably long-term time horizon. The example we present covers a number of standard cases and can be applied to passive investments, mutual funds, and hedge funds. Our results show investors the potential losses they face in performance due to administrative costs.

  5. Risk-adjusted impact of administrative costs on the distribution of terminal wealth for long-term investment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guillén, Montserrat; Jarner, Søren Fiig; Nielsen, Jens Perch; Pérez-Marín, Ana M

    2014-01-01

    The impact of administrative costs on the distribution of terminal wealth is approximated using a simple formula applicable to many investment situations. We show that the reduction in median returns attributable to administrative fees is usually at least twice the amount of the administrative costs charged for most investment funds, when considering a risk-adjustment correction over a reasonably long-term time horizon. The example we present covers a number of standard cases and can be applied to passive investments, mutual funds, and hedge funds. Our results show investors the potential losses they face in performance due to administrative costs.

  6. Contact angle adjustment in equation-of-state-based pseudopotential model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Anjie; Li, Longjian; Uddin, Rizwan; Liu, Dong

    2016-05-01

    The single component pseudopotential lattice Boltzmann model has been widely applied in multiphase simulation due to its simplicity and stability. In many studies, it has been claimed that this model can be stable for density ratios larger than 1000. However, the application of the model is still limited to small density ratios when the contact angle is considered. The reason is that the original contact angle adjustment method influences the stability of the model. Moreover, simulation results in the present work show that, by applying the original contact angle adjustment method, the density distribution near the wall is artificially changed, and the contact angle is dependent on the surface tension. Hence, it is very inconvenient to apply this method with a fixed contact angle, and the accuracy of the model cannot be guaranteed. To solve these problems, a contact angle adjustment method based on the geometry analysis is proposed and numerically compared with the original method. Simulation results show that, with our contact angle adjustment method, the stability of the model is highly improved when the density ratio is relatively large, and it is independent of the surface tension.

  7. Calibration and adjustment of center of mass (COM) based on EKF during in-flight phase

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    DONG Feng; LIAO He; JIA ChengLong; XIA XiaoJing

    2009-01-01

    The electrostatic accelerometer, assembled on gravity satellite, serves to measure all non-gravitational accelerations caused by atmosphere drag or solar radiation pressure, etc. The proof-mass center of the accelerometer needs to be precisely positioned at the center of gravity satellite, otherwise, the offset between them will bring measurement disturbance due to angular acceleration of satellite and gradient.Because of installation and measurement errors on the ground, fuel consumption during the in-flight phase and other adverse factors, the offset between the proof-mass center and the satellite center of mass is usually large enough to affect the measurement accuracy of the accelerometer, even beyond its range. Therefore, the offset needs to be measured or estimated, and then be controlled within the measurement requirement of the accelerometer by the center of mass (COM) adjustment mechanism during the life of the satellite. The estimation algorithm based on EKF, which uses the measurement of accelerometer, gyro and magnetometer, is put forward to estimate the offset, and the COM adjustment mechanism then adjusts the satellite center of mass in order to make the offset meet the requirement.With the special configuration layout, the COM adjustment mechanism driven by the stepper motors can separately regulate X, Y and Z axes. The associated simulation shows that the offset can be con-trolled better than 0.03 mm for all the axes with the method mentioned above.

  8. Social risk and protective factors for African American children's academic achievement and adjustment during the transition to middle school.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burchinal, Margaret R; Roberts, Joanne E; Zeisel, Susan A; Rowley, Stephanie J

    2008-01-01

    The transition to middle school is often marked by decreased academic achievement and increased emotional stress, and African American children exposed to social risk may be especially vulnerable during this transition. To identify mediators and protective factors, the authors related severity and timing of risk exposure to academic achievement and adjustment between 4th and 6th grade in 74 African American children. Longitudinal analyses indicated that severity more than timing of risk exposure was negatively related to all outcomes and that language skills mediated the pathway from risk for most outcomes. Transition to middle school was related to lower math scores and to more externalizing problems when children experienced higher levels of social risk. Language skills and parenting served as protective factors, whereas expectations of racial discrimination was a vulnerability factor. Results imply that promoting parenting and, especially, language skills, and decreasing expectations of racial discrimination provide pathways to academic success for African American children during the transition from elementary to middle school, especially those exposed to adversity.

  9. Age-adjusted relative suicide risk by marital and employment status over the past 25 years in Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamauchi, T; Fujita, T; Tachimori, H; Takeshima, T; Inagaki, M; Sudo, A

    2013-03-01

    There have been no longitudinal studies in Japan examining national-level data for suicide risk by marital and employment status. We examined the age-adjusted relative suicide risk (RR) by marital and employment status from national data acquired for all suicides in Japan occurring in the past 25 years. All deaths identified as suicides according to ICD-9 and ICD-10 were extracted from vital statistics data of Japan for the years 1980, 1985, 1990, 1995, 2000 and 2005. Population statistics for Japanese residents aged ≥15 years were obtained from the census. Suicide rates for almost all categories analyzed decreased in both genders between 1985 and 1990 and increased between 1995 and 2000, especially among men. Unemployed and divorced men had a consistently higher RR in each year analyzed. Unemployed and divorced women had a higher risk than those in other categories, especially in 2000 and 2005. In women, particularly in 1980, 1985 and 1990, those who were unemployed and never married had a similar RR to those who were unemployed and divorced. Unemployed and divorced people were at a high risk of suicide over the past 25 years, particularly in 2000 and 2005. Our findings suggest that the effects of divorce and unemployment on suicide risk are synergistic.

  10. Maternal Adjustment and Infant Outcome in Medically Defined High-Risk Pregnancy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levy-Shiff, Rachel; Lerman, Maya; Har-Even, Dov; Hod, Moshe

    2002-01-01

    Explored relation of biological and psychosocial risk factors to infant development among pregnant women who had pregestational diabetes, gestational diabetes, or were nondiabetic. Found that infants of diabetic mothers scored lower on the Bayley Scales at 1 year and revealed fewer positive and more negative behaviors than infants of nondiabetic…

  11. Neonatal mortality risk associated with preterm birth in East Africa, adjusted by weight for gestational age

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Marchant, Tanya; Willey, Barbara; Katz, Joanne

    2012-01-01

    Low birth weight and prematurity are amongst the strongest predictors of neonatal death. However, the extent to which they act independently is poorly understood. Our objective was to estimate the neonatal mortality risk associated with preterm birth when stratified by weight for gestational age ...

  12. Adjustable Parameter-Based Distributed Fault Estimation Observer Design for Multiagent Systems With Directed Graphs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Ke; Jiang, Bin; Shi, Peng

    2017-02-01

    In this paper, a novel adjustable parameter (AP)-based distributed fault estimation observer (DFEO) is proposed for multiagent systems (MASs) with the directed communication topology. First, a relative output estimation error is defined based on the communication topology of MASs. Then a DFEO with AP is constructed with the purpose of improving the accuracy of fault estimation. Based on H ∞ and H 2 with pole placement, multiconstrained design is given to calculate the gain of DFEO. Finally, simulation results are presented to illustrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed DFEO design with AP.

  13. Risk-based regulation: Challenges and opportunities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bari, R.A.

    1995-11-01

    Over the last twenty years, man has witnessed a gradual but steady movement toward increased usage of risk-based methods and results in the regulatory process. The ``risk perspective`` as a supportive view to existing (non-risk-based or deterministic) information used in decision making has a firm foothold now in most countries that regulate nuclear power. Furthermore, in the areas outside the nuclear power field, such as health risk assessment, risk-based information is used increasingly to make decisions on potential impacts of chemical, biological, and radiological exposures. Some of the principal concepts and issues that are pertinent to risk-based regulation are reviewed. There is a growing interest in most countries in the use of risk-based methods and results to facilitate decision-making associated with regulatory processes. A summary is presented of the challenges and opportunities related to expanded use of risk-based regulation.

  14. Calculation of Credit Valuation Adjustment Based on Least Square Monte Carlo Methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qian Liu

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Counterparty credit risk has become one of the highest-profile risks facing participants in the financial markets. Despite this, relatively little is known about how counterparty credit risk is actually priced mathematically. We examine this issue using interest rate swaps. This largely traded financial product allows us to well identify the risk profiles of both institutions and their counterparties. Concretely, Hull-White model for rate and mean-reverting model for default intensity have proven to be in correspondence with the reality and to be well suited for financial institutions. Besides, we find that least square Monte Carlo method is quite efficient in the calculation of credit valuation adjustment (CVA, for short as it avoids the redundant step to generate inner scenarios. As a result, it accelerates the convergence speed of the CVA estimators. In the second part, we propose a new method to calculate bilateral CVA to avoid double counting in the existing bibliographies, where several copula functions are adopted to describe the dependence of two first to default times.

  15. Risk-adjusted morbidity in teaching hospitals correlates with reported levels of communication and collaboration on surgical teams but not with scale measures of teamwork climate, safety climate, or working conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davenport, Daniel L; Henderson, William G; Mosca, Cecilia L; Khuri, Shukri F; Mentzer, Robert M

    2007-12-01

    Since the Institute of Medicine patient safety reports, a number of survey-based measures of organizational climate safety factors (OCSFs) have been developed. The goal of this study was to measure the impact of OCSFs on risk-adjusted surgical morbidity and mortality. Surveys were administered to staff on general/vascular surgery services during a year. Surveys included multiitem scales measuring OCSFs. Additionally, perceived levels of communication and collaboration with coworkers were assessed. The National Surgical Quality Improvement Program was used to assess risk-adjusted morbidity and mortality. Correlations between outcomes and OCSFs were calculated and between outcomes and communication/collaboration with attending and resident doctors, nurses, and other providers. Fifty-two sites participated in the survey: 44 Veterans Affairs and 8 academic medical centers. A total of 6,083 surveys were returned, for a response rate of 52%. The OCSF measures of teamwork climate, safety climate, working conditions, recognition of stress effects, job satisfaction, and burnout demonstrated internal validity but did not correlate with risk-adjusted outcomes. Reported levels of communication/collaboration with attending and resident doctors correlated with risk-adjusted morbidity. Survey-based teamwork, safety climate, and working conditions scales are not confirmed to measure organizational factors that influence risk-adjusted surgical outcomes. Reported communication/collaboration with attending and resident doctors on surgical services influenced patient morbidity. This suggests the importance of doctors' coordination and decision-making roles on surgical teams in providing high-quality and safe care. We propose risk-adjusted morbidity as an effective measure of surgical patient safety.

  16. [The motive force of evolution based on the principle of organismal adjustment evolution.].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, Jia-Shu

    2010-08-01

    From the analysis of the existing problems of the prevalent theories of evolution, this paper discussed the motive force of evolution based on the knowledge of the principle of organismal adjustment evolution to get a new understanding of the evolution mechanism. In the guide of Schrodinger's theory - "life feeds on negative entropy", the author proposed that "negative entropy flow" actually includes material flow, energy flow and information flow, and the "negative entropy flow" is the motive force for living and development. By modifying my own theory of principle of organismal adjustment evolution (not adaptation evolution), a new theory of "regulation system of organismal adjustment evolution involved in DNA, RNA and protein interacting with environment" is proposed. According to the view that phylogenetic development is the "integral" of individual development, the difference of negative entropy flow between organisms and environment is considered to be a motive force for evolution, which is a new understanding of the mechanism of evolution. Based on such understanding, evolution is regarded as "a changing process that one subsystem passes all or part of its genetic information to the next generation in a larger system, and during the adaptation process produces some new elements, stops some old ones, and thereby lasts in the larger system". Some other controversial questions related to evolution are also discussed.

  17. Optimal fuzzy PID controller with adjustable factors based on flexible polyhedron search algorithm

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    谭冠政; 肖宏峰; 王越超

    2002-01-01

    A new kind of optimal fuzzy PID controller is proposed, which contains two parts. One is an on-line fuzzy inference system, and the other is a conventional PID controller. In the fuzzy inference system, three adjustable factors xp, xi, and xd are introduced. Their functions are to further modify and optimize the result of the fuzzy inference so as to make the controller have the optimal control effect on a given object. The optimal values of these adjustable factors are determined based on the ITAE criterion and the Nelder and Mead′s flexible polyhedron search algorithm. This optimal fuzzy PID controller has been used to control the executive motor of the intelligent artificial leg designed by the authors. The result of computer simulation indicates that this controller is very effective and can be widely used to control different kinds of objects and processes.

  18. [An adjustment procedure for comparing migration data based on different definitions in Japanese censuses].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ishikawa, Y; Inoue, T; Matsunaka, R

    1998-11-01

    "Change of migration definition in [the] 1990 census of Japan prevents us from comparing the migration data reported in it with those in [the] 1970 and 1980 censuses. However, the adjustment procedure we propose in this article enables us to directly compare them.... The observed migration data based on the 1970/80 definition and the estimated data based on the 1990 definition are compared for the period of 1965-70 and 1975-80. Furthermore, temporal changes of age-specific inter-regional migration size during the period between 1965-70 and 1985-90 are explained." (EXCERPT)

  19. What is the empirical evidence that hospitals with higher-risk adjusted mortality rates provide poorer quality care? A systematic review of the literature

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammed Mohammed A

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Despite increasing interest and publication of risk-adjusted hospital mortality rates, the relationship with underlying quality of care remains unclear. We undertook a systematic review to ascertain the extent to which variations in risk-adjusted mortality rates were associated with differences in quality of care. Methods We identified studies in which risk-adjusted mortality and quality of care had been reported in more than one hospital. We adopted an iterative search strategy using three databases – Medline, HealthSTAR and CINAHL from 1966, 1975 and 1982 respectively. We identified potentially relevant studies on the basis of the title or abstract. We obtained these papers and included those which met our inclusion criteria. Results From an initial yield of 6,456 papers, 36 studies met the inclusion criteria. Several of these studies considered more than one process-versus-risk-adjusted mortality relationship. In total we found 51 such relationships in a widen range of clinical conditions using a variety of methods. A positive correlation between better quality of care and risk-adjusted mortality was found in under half the relationships (26/51 51% but the remainder showed no correlation (16/51 31% or a paradoxical correlation (9/51 18%. Conclusion The general notion that hospitals with higher risk-adjusted mortality have poorer quality of care is neither consistent nor reliable.

  20. Implications of Public Reporting of Risk-Adjusted Mortality Following Percutaneous Coronary Intervention: Misperceptions and Potential Consequences for High-Risk Patients Including Nonsurgical Patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gupta, Anuj; Yeh, Robert W; Tamis-Holland, Jacqueline E; Patel, Shalin H; Guyton, Robert A; Klein, Lloyd W; Rab, Tanveer; Kirtane, Ajay J

    2016-10-24

    Assessment of clinical outcomes such as 30-day mortality following coronary revascularization procedures has historically been used to spur quality improvement programs. Public reporting of risk-adjusted outcomes is already mandated in several states, and proposals to further expand public reporting have been put forward as a means of increasing transparency and potentially incentivizing high quality care. However, for public reporting of outcomes to be considered a useful surrogate of procedural quality of care, several prerequisites must be met. First, the reporting measure must be truly representative of the quality of the procedure itself, rather than be dominated by other underlying factors, such as the overall level of illness of a patient. Second, to foster comparisons among physicians and institutions, the metric requires accurate ascertainment of and adjustment for differences in patient risk profiles. This is particularly relevant for high-risk clinical patient scenarios. Finally, the potential deleterious consequences of public reporting of a quality metric should be considered prior to expanding the use of public reporting more broadly. In this viewpoint, the authors review in particular the characterization of high-risk patients currently treated by percutaneous coronary interventional procedures, assessing the adequacy of clinical risk models used in this population. They then expand upon the limitations of 30-day mortality as a quality metric for percutaneous coronary intervention, addressing the strengths and limitations of this metric, as well as offering suggestions to enhance its future use in public reporting. Copyright © 2016 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. [Susceptibility to strategy of the drug component of the IPHCC+RxGroups classification system in a risk-adjusted morbidity compensation scheme--a conceptional and data-supported analysis].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Behrend, C; Felder, S; Busse, R

    2007-01-01

    A report commissioned by the German Ministry of Health recommends to the existing scheme for calculating risk-adjusted transfers to sickness funds supplement with the IPHCC+RxGroups method. The method is based on inpatient diagnoses and prescribed drugs as health status measures deduced from prior use. The present study investigates the sickness fund's expected net return from gaming based on the drug component of the risk adjuster. The study explores three possible strategies using the RxGroups method. For the stimulations, insurees are assigned to additional indications or to higher valued RxGroups within the same indication. Then, costs and financial benefits attributable to the altered drug use are estimated and compared with the status quo. The study uses 2000 and 2001 sample data of more than 370,000 insurees of Germany's company-based sickness funds system (BKK). While upgrading increases overall costs, it can be beneficial for the individual sickness funds. Their net return crucially depends on the number of sickness funds gaming the system: the more participating in the game, the smaller is the average net return. Moreover, not participating often is even worse, which in turn points to a prisoner's dilemma. When extending the risk adjustment scheme in social health insurance, the German legislator should take into account the perverse incentives of risk adjusters such as the described prescription drug model.

  2. Demography-adjusted tests of neutrality based on genome-wide SNP data

    KAUST Repository

    Rafajlović, Marina

    2014-08-01

    Tests of the neutral evolution hypothesis are usually built on the standard model which assumes that mutations are neutral and the population size remains constant over time. However, it is unclear how such tests are affected if the last assumption is dropped. Here, we extend the unifying framework for tests based on the site frequency spectrum, introduced by Achaz and Ferretti, to populations of varying size. Key ingredients are the first two moments of the site frequency spectrum. We show how these moments can be computed analytically if a population has experienced two instantaneous size changes in the past. We apply our method to data from ten human populations gathered in the 1000 genomes project, estimate their demographies and define demography-adjusted versions of Tajima\\'s D, Fay & Wu\\'s H, and Zeng\\'s E. Our results show that demography-adjusted test statistics facilitate the direct comparison between populations and that most of the differences among populations seen in the original unadjusted tests can be explained by their underlying demographies. Upon carrying out whole-genome screens for deviations from neutrality, we identify candidate regions of recent positive selection. We provide track files with values of the adjusted and unadjusted tests for upload to the UCSC genome browser. © 2014 Elsevier Inc.

  3. Block adjustment of airborne InSAR based on interferogram phase and POS data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yue, Xijuan; Zhao, Yinghui; Han, Chunming; Dou, Changyong

    2015-12-01

    High-precision surface elevation information in large scale can be obtained efficiently by airborne Interferomatric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) system, which is recently becoming an important tool to acquire remote sensing data and perform mapping applications in the area where surveying and mapping is difficult to be accomplished by spaceborne satellite or field working. . Based on the study of the three-dimensional (3D) positioning model using interferogram phase and Position and Orientation System (POS) data and block adjustment error model, a block adjustment method to produce seamless wide-area mosaic product generated from airborne InSAR data is proposed in this paper. The effect of 6 parameters, including trajectory and attitude of the aircraft, baseline length and incline angle, slant range, and interferometric phase, on the 3D positioning accuracy is quantitatively analyzed. Using the data acquired in the field campaign conducted in Mianyang county Sichuan province, China in June 2011, a mosaic seamless Digital Elevation Model (DEM) product was generated from 76 images in 4 flight strips by the proposed block adjustment model. The residuals of ground control points (GCPs), the absolute positioning accuracy of check points (CPs) and the relative positioning accuracy of tie points (TPs) both in same and adjacent strips were assessed. The experimental results suggest that the DEM and Digital Orthophoto Map (DOM) product generated by the airborne InSAR data with sparse GCPs can meet mapping accuracy requirement at scale of 1:10 000.

  4. RISK LOAN PORTFOLIO OPTIMIZATION MODEL BASED ON CVAR RISK MEASURE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ming-Chang LEE

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available In order to achieve commercial banks liquidity, safety and profitability objective requirements, loan portfolio risk analysis based optimization decisions are rational allocation of assets.  The risk analysis and asset allocation are the key technology of banking and risk management.  The aim of this paper, build a loan portfolio optimization model based on risk analysis.  Loan portfolio rate of return by using Value-at-Risk (VaR and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR constraint optimization decision model reflects the bank's risk tolerance, and the potential loss of direct control of the bank.  In this paper, it analyze a general risk management model applied to portfolio problems with VaR and CVaR risk measures by using Using the Lagrangian Algorithm.  This paper solves the highly difficult problem by matrix operation method.  Therefore, the combination of this paper is easy understanding the portfolio problems with VaR and CVaR risk model is a hyperbola in mean-standard deviation space.  It is easy calculation in proposed method.

  5. Remote Sensing-based Methodologies for Snow Model Adjustments in Operational Streamflow Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bender, S.; Miller, W. P.; Bernard, B.; Stokes, M.; Oaida, C. M.; Painter, T. H.

    2015-12-01

    Water management agencies rely on hydrologic forecasts issued by operational agencies such as NOAA's Colorado Basin River Forecast Center (CBRFC). The CBRFC has partnered with the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) under funding from NASA to incorporate research-oriented, remotely-sensed snow data into CBRFC operations and to improve the accuracy of CBRFC forecasts. The partnership has yielded valuable analysis of snow surface albedo as represented in JPL's MODIS Dust Radiative Forcing in Snow (MODDRFS) data, across the CBRFC's area of responsibility. When dust layers within a snowpack emerge, reducing the snow surface albedo, the snowmelt rate may accelerate. The CBRFC operational snow model (SNOW17) is a temperature-index model that lacks explicit representation of snowpack surface albedo. CBRFC forecasters monitor MODDRFS data for emerging dust layers and may manually adjust SNOW17 melt rates. A technique was needed for efficient and objective incorporation of the MODDRFS data into SNOW17. Initial development focused in Colorado, where dust-on-snow events frequently occur. CBRFC forecasters used retrospective JPL-CBRFC analysis and developed a quantitative relationship between MODDRFS data and mean areal temperature (MAT) data. The relationship was used to generate adjusted, MODDRFS-informed input for SNOW17. Impacts of the MODDRFS-SNOW17 MAT adjustment method on snowmelt-driven streamflow prediction varied spatially and with characteristics of the dust deposition events. The largest improvements occurred in southwestern Colorado, in years with intense dust deposition events. Application of the method in other regions of Colorado and in "low dust" years resulted in minimal impact. The MODDRFS-SNOW17 MAT technique will be implemented in CBRFC operations in late 2015, prior to spring 2016 runoff. Collaborative investigation of remote sensing-based adjustment methods for the CBRFC operational hydrologic forecasting environment will continue over the next several years.

  6. Phenotypic plasticity in anti-intraguild predator strategies: mite larvae adjust their behaviours according to vulnerability and predation risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walzer, Andreas; Schausberger, Peter

    2013-05-01

    Interspecific threat-sensitivity allows prey to maximize the net benefit of antipredator strategies by adjusting the type and intensity of their response to the level of predation risk. This is well documented for classical prey-predator interactions but less so for intraguild predation (IGP). We examined threat-sensitivity in antipredator behaviour of larvae in a predatory mite guild sharing spider mites as prey. The guild consisted of the highly vulnerable intraguild (IG) prey and weak IG predator Phytoseiulus persimilis, the moderately vulnerable IG prey and moderate IG predator Neoseiulus californicus and the little vulnerable IG prey and strong IG predator Amblyseius andersoni. We videotaped the behaviour of the IG prey larvae of the three species in presence of either a low- or a high-risk IG predator female or predator absence and analysed time, distance, path shape and interaction parameters of predators and prey. The least vulnerable IG prey A. andersoni was insensitive to differing IGP risks but the moderately vulnerable IG prey N. californicus and the highly vulnerable IG prey P. persimilis responded in a threat-sensitive manner. Predator presence triggered threat-sensitive behavioural changes in one out of ten measured traits in N. californicus larvae but in four traits in P. persimilis larvae. Low-risk IG predator presence induced a typical escape response in P. persimilis larvae, whereas they reduced their activity in the high-risk IG predator presence. We argue that interspecific threat-sensitivity may promote co-existence of IG predators and IG prey and should be common in predator guilds with long co-evolutionary history.

  7. Performance Evaluation of Electronic Inductor-Based Adjustable Speed Drives with Respect to Line Current Interharmonics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Soltani, Hamid; Davari, Pooya; Blaabjerg, Frede

    2017-01-01

    Electronic Inductor (EI)-based front-end rectifiers have a large potential to become the prominent next generation of Active Front End (AFE) topology used in many applications including Adjustable Speed Drives (ASDs) for systems having unidirectional power flow. The EI-based ASD is mostly...... attractive due to its improved harmonic performance compared to a conventional ASD. In this digest, the input currents of the EI-based ASD are investigated and compared with the conventional ASDs with respect to interharmonics, which is an emerging power quality topic. First, the main causes...... of the interharmonic distortions in the ASD applications are analyzed under balanced and unbalanced load conditions. Thereafter, the key role of the EI at the DC stage is investigated in terms of high impedance and current harmonics transfer. Obtained experiments and simulations for both EI-based and conventional ASD...

  8. Preschoolers' Attachment to Mother and Risk for Adjustment Problems in Kindergarten: Can Teachers Make a Difference?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buyse, Evelien; Verschueren, Karine; Doumen, Sarah

    2011-01-01

    Based on attachment theory, two aims were addressed. Firstly, we tested whether close teacher-child relationships may buffer children who are less securely attached to their mothers against negative outcomes, such as aggressive behavior. Secondly, our study evaluated whether teacher sensitivity may protect less securely attached children against…

  9. Risk-based methodology for USNRC inspections

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wong, S.M. [Brookhaven National Lab., Upton, NY (United States); Holahan, G.M.; Chung, J.W.; Johnson, M.R. [Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, DC (United States). Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation

    1995-12-01

    This paper describes the development and trial applications of a risk-based methodology to enhance the inspection processes for US nuclear power plants. Objectives of risk-based methods to complement prescriptive engineering approaches in US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) inspection programs are presented. Insights from time-dependent risk profiles of plant configurational from Individual Plant Evaluation (IPE) studies were integrated to develop a framework for optimizing inspection efforts in NRC regulatory initiatives. Lessons learned from NRC pilot applications of the risk-based methodology for evaluation of the effectiveness of operational risk management programs at US nuclear power plant sites are also discussed.

  10. Risk and protection factors in the peer context: how do other children contribute to the psychosocial adjustment of the adolescent?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marie-Hélène Véronneau

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available As children become adolescents, peers assume greater importance in their lives. Peer experiences can either help them thrive or negatively affect their psychosocial adjustment. In this review article definitions for the types of peer experiences are provided followed by an overview of common psychosocial issues encountered by adolescents. Past research that has pointed to risk and protection factors that emerge from peer experiences during adolescence and the role of peer influences in the context of current issues relevant to adolescent education are discussed. Research suggests that friendships with deviant peers, involvement in bullying and the experience of rejection from the overall peer group are related to adjustment problems, whereas friendships with prosocial and academically oriented peers and social acceptance in the peer group are related to healthy development. Friendship quality, popularity among peers, and involvement in friendship cliques cannot be clearly categorized as either positive or negative influences, because they interact with other factors in shaping the development of adolescents. The promotion of social skills and positive youth leadership as an integral part of the student's learning process in school is recommended.

  11. Small-Sized Variable Stiffness Actuator Module Based on Adjustable Moment Arm

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yu, Hongseon; Song, Jaebok [Korea Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2013-10-15

    In recent years, variable stiffness actuation has attracted much attention because interaction between a robot and the environment is increasingly required for various robot tasks. Several variable stiffness actuators (VSO) have been developed; however, they find limited applications owing to their size and weight. For realizing their widespread use, we developed a compact and lightweight mini-VSO. The mini-VSO consists of a control module based on an adjustable moment arm mechanism and a drive module with two motors. By controlling the relative motion of cams in the control module, the position and stiffness can be simultaneously controlled. Experimental results are presented to show its ability to change stiffness.

  12. Risk Adjusted Valuation of the Current Military Retirement and the CY2018 Retirement System

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-06-01

    personal discount rate and career retention curves. The results of this analysis suggest that the blended retirement system is the best choice for...perspective based on generalized data that facilitates a baseline course of action and creates discussion for a very personal choice . 44 Financial...U.S. military’s choice to transition to the blended retirement system in 2018. All service members will be grandfathered into the current system but

  13. Adding Laboratory Data to Hospital Claims Data to Improve Risk Adjustment of Inpatient/30-Day Postdischarge Outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pine, Michael; Fry, Donald E; Hannan, Edward L; Naessens, James M; Whitman, Kay; Reband, Agnes; Qian, Feng; Schindler, Joseph; Sonneborn, Mark; Roland, Jaclyn; Hyde, Linda; Dennison, Barbara A

    Numerical laboratory data at admission have been proposed for enhancement of inpatient predictive modeling from administrative claims. In this study, predictive models for inpatient/30-day postdischarge mortality and for risk-adjusted prolonged length of stay, as a surrogate for severe inpatient complications of care, were designed with administrative data only and with administrative data plus numerical laboratory variables. A comparison of resulting inpatient models for acute myocardial infarction, congestive heart failure, coronary artery bypass grafting, and percutaneous cardiac interventions demonstrated improved discrimination and calibration with administrative data plus laboratory values compared to administrative data only for both mortality and prolonged length of stay. Improved goodness of fit was most apparent in acute myocardial infarction and percutaneous cardiac intervention. The emergence of electronic medical records should make the addition of laboratory variables to administrative data an efficient and practical method to clinically enhance predictive modeling of inpatient outcomes of care.

  14. Metodology for Risk-based Indicators Impementation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vladimír Plos

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The article describes the principle of creating a riskbased indicators in companies operating in an air transport. The first part deals with the description of safety indicators and introduce the concept of risk-based indicators. The next section describes the procedure for creating the base of risk-based indicators and describes specific examples of developed indicators.

  15. [Nutritional risk in surgery evaluated by body mass index adjusted or not to elderly patients].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bicudo-Salomão, Alberto; Aguilar-Nascimento, José Eduardo de; Caporossi, Cervantes

    2006-01-01

    Standard body mass index cut-off points for malnutrition are routinely used for adults independently of their age. The hypothesis of this study was that a cut-off point higher than the usual for the diagnosis of malnutrition might be more precise to access the nutritional risk of aged surgical patients. To evaluate the morbimortality in aged surgical patients and its association with nutritional status assessed by body mass index using either the standard and a higher cut-off point for malnutrition. All patients admitted for operative procedures (n = 1,912) were allocated to either two groups: 65 years old (n = 285). The body mass index was used to access the nutritional status. Two different cut-off points for malnutrition (18.5 or 24 kg/m(2)) were used in the group of older patients. Endpoints of the study were length of stay, morbidity and mortality. Length of stay was higher in patients over 65 years (6 [1-75] days vs. 4 [1-137] days). Both postoperative complications (37/285; 13.0% vs. 109/1627; 6.7%; OR 2.1; IC95% 1.40-3.09) and deaths (15/285; 5.3% vs. 34/1627; 2.1%; OR 2.6; IC95% 1.40-4.84) were most common in the older group. Using a higher cut-off (24 kg/m(2)), the length of stay (8 [1-75] days vs. 4 [1-43] days), postoperative complications (28/152; 18.4% versus 9/133; 6.8%; OR 3,1; IC95% 1.41-6.86) and re-operations (16/152; 10.5% versus 3/133; 2.2%; OR 5.1; IC95% 1.45-17.91) were greater in malnourished patients. However these correlations were not statistically significant with the cut-off point for malnutrition in 18.5 kg/m(2). Morbimortality is higher in surgical patients over 65 years old. In these, the cut-off point set in 24 kg/m(2) was most associated with the occurrence of postoperative complications, re-operations and length of stay.

  16. LC Filter Design for Wide Band Gap Device Based Adjustable Speed Drives

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vadstrup, Casper; Wang, Xiongfei; Blaabjerg, Frede

    2014-01-01

    the LC filter with a higher cut off frequency and without damping resistors. The selection of inductance and capacitance is chosen based on capacitor voltage ripple and current ripple. The filter adds a base load to the inverter, which increases the inverter losses. It is shown how the modulation index......This paper presents a simple design procedure for LC filters used in wide band gap device based adjustable speed drives. Wide band gap devices offer fast turn-on and turn-off times, thus producing high dV/dt into the motor terminals. The high dV/dt can be harmful for the motor windings and bearings...... affects the capacitor capacitor and the inverter current....

  17. Infrared image gray adaptive adjusting enhancement algorithm based on gray redundancy histogram-dealing technique

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hao, Zi-long; Liu, Yong; Chen, Ruo-wang

    2016-11-01

    In view of the histogram equalizing algorithm to enhance image in digital image processing, an Infrared Image Gray adaptive adjusting Enhancement Algorithm Based on Gray Redundancy Histogram-dealing Technique is proposed. The algorithm is based on the determination of the entire image gray value, enhanced or lowered the image's overall gray value by increasing appropriate gray points, and then use gray-level redundancy HE method to compress the gray-scale of the image. The algorithm can enhance image detail information. Through MATLAB simulation, this paper compares the algorithm with the histogram equalization method and the algorithm based on gray redundancy histogram-dealing technique , and verifies the effectiveness of the algorithm.

  18. Exchange-Rate Risk Mitigation with Price-Level-Adjusting Mortgages: The Case of the Mexican UDI

    OpenAIRE

    Joseph B. Lipscomb; Harvey, John T; Harold Hunt

    2003-01-01

    In 1995, Mexico introduced a credit system based on a price-level-adjusting unit of account called the Unidad de Inversion (UDI, pronounced “oo-dee†), which is Spanish for “unit of investment.†The Bank of Mexico maintains an UDI Index, which sets the peso value of an UDI on any given day. Loans denominated in UDIs maintain their purchasing power and provide a real rate of return in the local currency, pesos. The focus of this study is the real rate of return earned by dollar investors...

  19. RGB-D SLAM Based on Extended Bundle Adjustment with 2D and 3D Information

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kaichang Di

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available In the study of SLAM problem using an RGB-D camera, depth information and visual information as two types of primary measurement data are rarely tightly coupled during refinement of camera pose estimation. In this paper, a new method of RGB-D camera SLAM is proposed based on extended bundle adjustment with integrated 2D and 3D information on the basis of a new projection model. First, the geometric relationship between the image plane coordinates and the depth values is constructed through RGB-D camera calibration. Then, 2D and 3D feature points are automatically extracted and matched between consecutive frames to build a continuous image network. Finally, extended bundle adjustment based on the new projection model, which takes both image and depth measurements into consideration, is applied to the image network for high-precision pose estimation. Field experiments show that the proposed method has a notably better performance than the traditional method, and the experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method in improving localization accuracy.

  20. RGB-D SLAM Based on Extended Bundle Adjustment with 2D and 3D Information.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di, Kaichang; Zhao, Qiang; Wan, Wenhui; Wang, Yexin; Gao, Yunjun

    2016-08-13

    In the study of SLAM problem using an RGB-D camera, depth information and visual information as two types of primary measurement data are rarely tightly coupled during refinement of camera pose estimation. In this paper, a new method of RGB-D camera SLAM is proposed based on extended bundle adjustment with integrated 2D and 3D information on the basis of a new projection model. First, the geometric relationship between the image plane coordinates and the depth values is constructed through RGB-D camera calibration. Then, 2D and 3D feature points are automatically extracted and matched between consecutive frames to build a continuous image network. Finally, extended bundle adjustment based on the new projection model, which takes both image and depth measurements into consideration, is applied to the image network for high-precision pose estimation. Field experiments show that the proposed method has a notably better performance than the traditional method, and the experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method in improving localization accuracy.

  1. New Strategy for Congestion Control based on Dynamic Adjustment of Congestion Window

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gamal Attiya

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a new mechanism for the end-to-end congestion control, called EnewReno. The proposed mechanism is based on the enhancement of both the congestion avoidance and the fast recovery algorithms of the TCP NewReno so as to improve its performance. The basic idea of the proposed mechanism is to adjust the congestion window of the TCP sender dynamically based on the level of congestion in the network so as to allow transferring more packets to the destination. The performance of the proposed mechanism is evaluated and compared with the most recent mechanisms by simulation studies using the well known Network Simulator NS-2 and the realistic topology generator GT-ITM.

  2. Risk-based SMA for Cubesats

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leitner, Jesse

    2016-01-01

    This presentation conveys an approach for risk-based safety and mission assurance applied to cubesats. This presentation accompanies a NASA Goddard standard in development that provides guidance for building a mission success plan for cubesats based on the risk tolerance and resources available.

  3. Response Adjusted for Days of Antibiotic Risk (RADAR): evaluation of a novel method to compare strategies to optimize antibiotic use.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schweitzer, V A; van Smeden, M; Postma, D F; Oosterheert, J J; Bonten, M J M; van Werkhoven, C H

    2017-05-10

    The Response Adjusted for Days of Antibiotic Risk (RADAR) statistic was proposed to improve the efficiency of trials comparing antibiotic stewardship strategies to optimize antibiotic use. We studied the behaviour of RADAR in a non-inferiority trial in which a β-lactam monotherapy strategy (n = 656) was non-inferior to fluoroquinolone monotherapy (n = 888) for patients with moderately severe community-acquired pneumonia. Patients were ranked according to clinical outcome, using five or eight categories, and antibiotic use. RADAR was calculated as the probability that the β-lactam group had a more favourable ranking than the fluoroquinolone group. To investigate the sensitivity of RADAR to detrimental clinical outcome we simulated increasing rates of 90-day mortality in the β-lactam group and performed the RADAR and non-inferiority analysis. The RADAR of the β-lactam group compared with the fluoroquinolone group was 60.3% (95% CI 57.9%-62.7%) using five and 58.4% (95% CI 56.0%-60.9%) using eight clinical outcome categories, all in favour of β-lactam. Sample sizes for RADAR were 38% (250/653) and 89% (580/653) of the non-inferiority sample size calculation, using five or eight clinical outcome categories, respectively. With simulated mortality rates, loss of non-inferiority of the β-lactam group occurred at a relative risk of 1.125 in the conventional analysis, whereas using RADAR the β-lactam group lost superiority at a relative risk of mortality of 1.25 and 1.5, with eight and five clinical outcome categories, respectively. RADAR favoured β-lactam over fluoroquinolone therapy for community-acquired pneumonia. Although RADAR required fewer patients than conventional non-inferiority analysis, the statistic was less sensitive to detrimental outcomes. Copyright © 2017 European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Cytogenetic bases for risk inference

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bender, M A

    1980-01-01

    Various enviromental pollutants are suspected of being capable of causing cancers or genetic defects even at low levels of exposure. In order to estimate risk from exposure to these pollutants, it would be useful to have some indicator of exposure. It is suggested that chromosomes are ideally suited for this purpose. Through the phenonema of chromosome aberrations and sister chromatid exchanges (SCE), chromosomes respond to virtually all carcinogens and mutagens. Aberrations and SCE are discussed in the context of their use as indicators of increased risk to health by chemical pollutants. (ACR)

  5. Bundle Block Adjustment of Airborne Three-Line Array Imagery Based on Rotation Angles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yongjun Zhang

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available In the midst of the rapid developments in electronic instruments and remote sensing technologies, airborne three-line array sensors and their applications are being widely promoted and plentiful research related to data processing and high precision geo-referencing technologies is under way. The exterior orientation parameters (EOPs, which are measured by the integrated positioning and orientation system (POS of airborne three-line sensors, however, have inevitable systematic errors, so the level of precision of direct geo-referencing is not sufficiently accurate for surveying and mapping applications. Consequently, a few ground control points are necessary to refine the exterior orientation parameters, and this paper will discuss bundle block adjustment models based on the systematic error compensation and the orientation image, considering the principle of an image sensor and the characteristics of the integrated POS. Unlike the models available in the literature, which mainly use a quaternion to represent the rotation matrix of exterior orientation, three rotation angles are directly used in order to effectively model and eliminate the systematic errors of the POS observations. Very good experimental results have been achieved with several real datasets that verify the correctness and effectiveness of the proposed adjustment models.

  6. Improvement for Speech Signal based on Post Wiener Filter and Adjustable Beam-Former

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaorong Tong

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available In this study, a two-stage filter structure is introduced for speech enhancement. The first stage is an adjustable filter and sum beam-former with four-microphone array. The control of beam-forming filter is realized by adjusting only a single control variable. Different from the adaptive beam-forming filter, the proposed filter structure does not bring to any adaptive error noise, thus, it also does not bring the trouble to the second stage of the speech signal processing. The second stage of the proposed filter is a Wiener filter. The estimation of signal’s power spectrum for Wiener filter is realized by cross-correlation between primary outputs of two adjacent directional beams. This estimation is based on the assumption that the noise outputs of the two adjacent directional beams come from two independent noise source but the speech outputs come from the same speech source. The simulation results shown that the proposed algorithm can improve the Signal-Noise-Ratio (SNR about 6 dB.

  7. The role of motor impulsivity in socioemotional adjustment in high-risk seven year old children and healthy controls: a follow-up study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José C. Perales

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The main aim of the present study was two-wise: first, to assess the presence of behavioral and intellectual disturbances in high-risk 7-year-old children, compared to healthy controls; and, second, and most importantly, to evaluate the discriminative validity of a motor impulsivity neuropsychological task (Go/No-go as an indicator of daily-life socioemotional adjustment. We administered the Behavior Assessment Scale for Children (BASC, the Weschler Intelligence Scale for Children (WISCIV, and the Go/No-go task to 14 high-risk 7 year-olds and 20 matched healthy controls. High-risk children had been classified as so shortly after birth, due to the presence of perinatal risk factors, and later released from the early care unit. They are currently schooled according to their age. We expected performance in the Go/No-go task to be a good indicator of behavioral disturbances in high-risk children, and more specifically of those related to socioemotional adjustment. Accordingly to such a hypothesis, high-risk children showed significantly worse scores in most BASC and WISC subscales, and committed more commission and omission errors on the Go/No-go task. Most importantly, regression analyses showed that performance on the Go/No-go task (but not WISC scores was an independent indicator of socioemotional adjustment problems. This result is in accordance with proposals that motor impulsivity is an important mediator between altered executive function development and socioemotional adjustment.

  8. The relationship between the c-statistic of a risk-adjustment model and the accuracy of hospital report cards: A Monte Carlo study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Austin, Peter C.; Reeves, Mathew J.

    2015-01-01

    Background Hospital report cards, in which outcomes following the provision of medical or surgical care are compared across health care providers, are being published with increasing frequency. Essential to the production of these reports is risk-adjustment, which allows investigators to account for differences in the distribution of patient illness severity across different hospitals. Logistic regression models are frequently used for risk-adjustment in hospital report cards. Many applied researchers use the c-statistic (equivalent to the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) of the logistic regression model as a measure of the credibility and accuracy of hospital report cards. Objectives To determine the relationship between the c-statistic of a risk-adjustment model and the accuracy of hospital report cards. Research Design Monte Carlo simulations were used to examine this issue. We examined the influence of three factors on the accuracy of hospital report cards: the c-statistic of the logistic regression model used for risk-adjustment, the number of hospitals, and the number of patients treated at each hospital. The parameters used to generate the simulated datasets came from analyses of patients hospitalized with a diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction in Ontario, Canada. Results The c-statistic of the risk-adjustment model had, at most, a very modest impact on the accuracy of hospital report cards, whereas the number of patients treated at each hospital had a much greater impact. Conclusions The c-statistic of a risk-adjustment model should not be used to assess the accuracy of a hospital report card. PMID:23295579

  9. Risk Probability Estimating Based on Clustering

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chen, Yong; Jensen, Christian D.; Gray, Elizabeth

    2003-01-01

    of prior experiences, recommendations from a trusted entity or the reputation of the other entity. In this paper we propose a dynamic mechanism for estimating the risk probability of a certain interaction in a given environment using hybrid neural networks. We argue that traditional risk assessment models...... from the insurance industry do not directly apply to ubiquitous computing environments. Instead, we propose a dynamic mechanism for risk assessment, which is based on pattern matching, classification and prediction procedures. This mechanism uses an estimator of risk probability, which is based...

  10. Multi-Period Model of Portfolio Investment and Adjustment Based on Hybrid Genetic Algorithm

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    RONG Ximin; LU Meiping; DENG Lin

    2009-01-01

    This paper proposes a multi-period portfolio investment model with class constraints, transaction cost, and indivisible securities. When an investor joins the securities market for the first time, he should decide on portfolio investment based on the practical conditions of securities market. In addition, investors should adjust the portfolio according to market changes, changing or not changing the category of risky securities. Markowitz mean-variance approach is applied to the multi-period portfolio selection problems. Because the sub-models are optimal mixed integer program, whose objective function is not unimodal and feasible set is with a particular structure, traditional optimization method usually fails to find a globally optimal solution. So this paper employs the hybrid genetic algorithm to solve the problem. Investment policies that accord with finance market and are easy to operate for investors are put forward with an illustration of application.

  11. Optimal Scheme Selection of Agricultural Production Structure Adjustment - Based on DEA Model; Punjab (Pakistan)

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zeeshan Ahmad; Meng Jun; Muhammad Abdullah; Mazhar Nadeem Ishaq; Majid Lateef; Imran Khan

    2015-01-01

    This paper used the modern evaluation method of DEA (Data Envelopment Analysis) to assess the comparative efficiency and then on the basis of this among multiple schemes chose the optimal scheme of agricultural production structure adjustment. Based on the results of DEA model, we dissected scale advantages of each discretionary scheme or plan. We examined scale advantages of each discretionary scheme, tested profoundly a definitive purpose behind not-DEA efficient, which elucidated the system and methodology to enhance these discretionary plans. At the end, another method had been proposed to rank and select the optimal scheme. The research was important to guide the practice if the modification of agricultural production industrial structure was carried on.

  12. Second-Order Polynomial Equation-Based Block Adjustment for Orthorectification of DISP Imagery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guoqing Zhou

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Due to the lack of ground control points (GCPs and parameters of satellite orbits, as well as the interior and exterior orientation parameters of cameras in historical declassified intelligence satellite photography (DISP imagery, a second order polynomial equation-based block adjustment model is proposed for orthorectification of DISP imagery. With the proposed model, 355 DISP images from four missions and five orbits are orthorectified, with an approximate accuracy of 2.0–3.0 m. The 355 orthorectified images are assembled into a seamless, full-coverage mosaic image map of the karst area of Guangxi, China. The accuracy of the mosaicked image map is within 2.0–4.0 m when compared to 78 checkpoints measured by Real–Time Kinematic (RTK GPS surveys. The assembled image map will be delivered to the Guangxi Geological Library and released to the public domain and the research community.

  13. Performance analysis of adjustable window based FIR filter for noisy ECG Signal Filtering

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Mahawar

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Recording of the electrical activity associated to heart functioning is known as Electrocardiogram (ECG. ECG is a quasi-periodical, rhythmically signal synchronized by the function of the heart, which acts as a generator of bioelectric events. ECG signals are low level signals and sensitive to external contaminations. Electrocardiogram signals are often corrupted by noise which may have electrical or electrophysiological origin. The noise signal tends to alter the signal morphology, thereby hindering the correct diagnosis. In order to remove the unwanted noise, a digital filtering technique based on adjustable windows is proposed in this paper. Finite Impulse Response (FIR low pass is designed using windowing method for the ECG signal. The results obtained from different techniques are compared on the basis of popularly used signal error measures like SNR, PRD, PRD1, and MSE.

  14. A High-Precision Registration Technology Based on Bundle Adjustment in Structured Light Scanning System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jianying Yuan

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The multiview 3D data registration precision will decrease with the increasing number of registrations when measuring a large scale object using structured light scanning. In this paper, we propose a high-precision registration method based on multiple view geometry theory in order to solve this problem. First, a multiview network is constructed during the scanning process. The bundle adjustment method from digital close range photogrammetry is used to optimize the multiview network to obtain high-precision global control points. After that, the 3D data under each local coordinate of each scan are registered with the global control points. The method overcomes the error accumulation in the traditional registration process and reduces the time consumption of the following 3D data global optimization. The multiview 3D scan registration precision and efficiency are increased. Experiments verify the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.

  15. Posture Adjustment of Microphone Based on Image Recognition in Automatic Welding System

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Wang Jin'e; Gao Ping; Huang Haibo; Li Xiangpeng; Zheng Liang; Xu Wenkui; Chen Liguo

    2015-01-01

    As the requirements of production process is getting higher and higher with the reduction of volume ,mi-crophone production automation become an urgent need to improve the production efficiency .The most important part is studied and a precise algorithm of calculating the deviation angle of four types microphones is proposed , based on the feature extraction and visual detection .Pretreatment is performed to achieve the real-time microphone image .Canny edge detection and typical feature extraction are used to distinguish the four types of microphones , categorizing them as type M 1 and type M2 .And Hough transformation is used to extract the image features of mi-crophone .Therefore ,the deviation angle between the posture of microphone and the ideal posture in 2D plane can be achieved .Depending on the angle ,the system drives the motor to adjust posture of the microphone .The final purpose is to realize the high efficiency welding of four different types of microphones .

  16. Risk Probability Estimating Based on Clustering

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chen, Yong; Jensen, Christian D.; Gray, Elizabeth;

    2003-01-01

    from the insurance industry do not directly apply to ubiquitous computing environments. Instead, we propose a dynamic mechanism for risk assessment, which is based on pattern matching, classification and prediction procedures. This mechanism uses an estimator of risk probability, which is based......biquitous computing environments are highly dynamic, with new unforeseen circumstances and constantly changing environments, which introduces new risks that cannot be assessed through traditional means of risk analysis. Mobile entities in a ubiquitous computing environment require the ability...... to perform an autonomous assessment of the risk incurred by a specific interaction with another entity in a given context. This assessment will allow a mobile entity to decide whether sufficient evidence exists to mitigate the risk and allow the interaction to proceed. Such evidence might include records...

  17. DYNAMIC LAYOUT ADJUSTMENT AND NAVIGATION FOR ENTERPRISE GIS BASED ON OBJECT MARK RECOGNITION

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2003-01-01

    In this paper a new method is developed to make a dynamic layout adjustment and navigation for enterprise Geographic Information System(GIS) based on object mark recognition. The extraction of object mark images is based on some morphological structural patterns, which are described by morphological structural points, contour property, and other geometrical data in a binary image of enterprise geographic information map. Some pre-processing methods, contour smooth following, linearization and extraction patterns of structural points, are introduced. If any special object is selected to make a decision in a GIS map, the all information around it will be obtained. That is, we need to investigate similar object enterprises around selected region to analyse whether it is necessary for establishing the object enterprise at that place. To further navigate GIS map, we need to move from one region to another. Each time a region is formed and displayed based on the user′ s focus. If a focus point of a map is selected, in terms of extracted object mark image, a dynamic layout and navigation diagram is constructed. When the user changes the focus (i.e. click a node in the navigation mode), a new sub-diagram is formed by dropping old nodes and adding new nodes. The prototype system provides effective interfaces that support GIS image navigation, detailed local image/map viewing, and enterprise information browsing.

  18. Voltage adjusting characteristics in terahertz transmission through Fabry-Pérot-based metamaterials

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jun Luo

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Metallic electric split-ring resonators (SRRs with featured size in micrometer scale, which are connected by thin metal wires, are patterned to form a periodically distributed planar array. The arrayed metallic SRRs are fabricated on an n-doped gallium arsenide (n-GaAs layer grown directly over a semi-insulating gallium arsenide (SI-GaAs wafer. The patterned metal microstructures and n-GaAs layer construct a Schottky diode, which can support an external voltage applied to modify the device properties. The developed architectures present typical functional metamaterial characters, and thus is proposed to reveal voltage adjusting characteristics in the transmission of terahertz waves at normal incidence. We also demonstrate the terahertz transmission characteristics of the voltage controlled Fabry-Pérot-based metamaterial device, which is composed of arrayed metallic SRRs. To date, many metamaterials developed in earlier works have been used to regulate the transmission amplitude or phase at specific frequencies in terahertz wavelength range, which are mainly dominated by the inductance-capacitance (LC resonance mechanism. However, in our work, the external voltage controlled metamaterial device is developed, and the extraordinary transmission regulation characteristics based on both the Fabry-Pérot (FP resonance and relatively weak surface plasmon polariton (SPP resonance in 0.025-1.5 THz range, are presented. Our research therefore shows a potential application of the dual-mode-resonance-based metamaterial for improving terahertz transmission regulation.

  19. Development and Testing of a Decision Making Based Method to Adjust Automatically the Harrowing Intensity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roland Gerhards

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Harrowing is often used to reduce weed competition, generally using a constant intensity across a whole field. The efficacy of weed harrowing in wheat and barley can be optimized, if site-specific conditions of soil, weed infestation and crop growth stage are taken into account. This study aimed to develop and test an algorithm to automatically adjust the harrowing intensity by varying the tine angle and number of passes. The field variability of crop leaf cover, weed density and soil density was acquired with geo-referenced sensors to investigate the harrowing selectivity and crop recovery. Crop leaf cover and weed density were assessed using bispectral cameras through differential images analysis. The draught force of the soil opposite to the direction of travel was measured with electronic load cell sensor connected to a rigid tine mounted in front of the harrow. Optimal harrowing intensity levels were derived in previously implemented experiments, based on the weed control efficacy and yield gain. The assessments of crop leaf cover, weed density and soil density were combined via rules with the aforementioned optimal intensities, in a linguistic fuzzy inference system (LFIS. The system was evaluated in two field experiments that compared constant intensities with variable intensities inferred by the system. A higher weed density reduction could be achieved when the harrowing intensity was not kept constant along the cultivated plot. Varying the intensity tended to reduce the crop leaf cover, though slightly improving crop yield. A real-time intensity adjustment with this system is achievable, if the cameras are attached in the front and at the rear or sides of the harrow.

  20. Civilian Reuse of Former Military Bases. Summary of Completed Military Base Economic Adjustment Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    1990-06-01

    Immobiliare Ltd . Boston National Planning & Development and John Charlestown (c) Historic Park, Sail Magazine. O’Brien. Navy Yard Project Maneger, MA General...Crowder College, Commerce. Neosho, MO 64850 Municipal Airport (417) 451-1925 .,onrad. Montana 1972 153 50 Cascade Campers Ltd , Intercontinental...South Carolina 1963 672 5,253 Woolworth Distribution Center. 3M 500(C) Phillip Southerland. Executive Donaldson Air Force Base 1964 (4.100) Company

  1. Risk based surveillance for vector borne diseases

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bødker, Rene

    of samples and hence early detection of outbreaks. Models for vector borne diseases in Denmark have demonstrated dramatic variation in outbreak risk during the season and between years. The Danish VetMap project aims to make these risk based surveillance estimates available on the veterinarians smart phones...

  2. WTS - Risk Based Resource Targeting (RBRT) -

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Transportation — The Risk Based Resource Targeting (RBRT) application supports a new SMS-structured process designed to focus on safety oversight of systems and processes rather than...

  3. Bulk Density Adjustment of Resin-Based Equivalent Material for Geomechanical Model Test

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pengxian Fan

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available An equivalent material is of significance to the simulation of prototype rock in geomechanical model test. Researchers attempt to ensure that the bulk density of equivalent material is equal to that of prototype rock. In this work, barite sand was used to increase the bulk density of a resin-based equivalent material. The variation law of the bulk density was revealed in the simulation of a prototype rock of a different bulk density. Over 300 specimens were made for uniaxial compression test. Test results indicated that the substitution of quartz sand by barite sand had no apparent influence on the uniaxial compressive strength and elastic modulus of the specimens but can increase the bulk density, according to the proportional coarse aggregate content. An ideal linearity was found in the relationship between the barite sand substitution ratio and the bulk density. The relationship between the bulk density and the usage of coarse aggregate and barite sand was also presented. The test results provided an insight into the bulk density adjustment of resin-based equivalent materials.

  4. Hierarchical 3D mechanical parts matching based-on adjustable geometry and topology similarity measurements

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    马嵩华; 田凌

    2014-01-01

    A hierarchical scheme of feature-based model similarity measurement was proposed, named CSG_D2, in which both geometry similarity and topology similarity were applied. The features of 3D mechanical part were constructed by a series of primitive features with tree structure, as a form of constructive solid geometry (CSG) tree. The D2 shape distributions of these features were extracted for geometry similarity measurement, and the pose vector and non-disappeared proportion of each leaf node were gained for topology similarity measurement. Based on these, the dissimilarity between the query and the candidate was accessed by level-by-level CSG tree comparisons. With the adjustable weights, our scheme satisfies different comparison emphasis on the geometry or topology similarity. The assessment results from CSG_D2 demonstrate more discriminative than those from D2 in the analysis of precision-recall and similarity matrix. Finally, an experimental search engine is applied for mechanical parts reuse by using CSG_D2, which is convenient for the mechanical design process.

  5. PV Array Driven Adjustable Speed Drive for a Lunar Base Heat Pump

    Science.gov (United States)

    Domijan, Alexander, Jr.; Buchh, Tariq Aslam

    1995-01-01

    A study of various aspects of Adjustable Speed Drives (ASD) is presented. A summary of the relative merits of different ASD systems presently in vogue is discussed. The advantages of using microcomputer based ASDs is now widely understood and accepted. Of the three most popular drive systems, namely the Induction Motor Drive, Switched Reluctance Motor Drive and Brushless DC Motor Drive, any one may be chosen. The choice would depend on the nature of the application and its requirements. The suitability of the above mentioned drive systems for a photovoltaic array driven ASD for an aerospace application are discussed. The discussion is based on the experience of the authors, various researchers and industry. In chapter 2 a PV array power supply scheme has been proposed, this scheme will have an enhanced reliability in addition to the other known advantages of the case where a stand alone PV array is feeding the heat pump. In chapter 3 the results of computer simulation of PV array driven induction motor drive system have been included. A discussion on these preliminary simulation results have also been included in this chapter. Chapter 4 includes a brief discussion on various control techniques for three phase induction motors. A discussion on different power devices and their various performance characteristics is given in Chapter 5.

  6. Risk adjustment models for interhospital comparison of CS rates using Robson's ten group classification system and other socio-demographic and clinical variables.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colais, Paola; Fantini, Maria P; Fusco, Danilo; Carretta, Elisa; Stivanello, Elisa; Lenzi, Jacopo; Pieri, Giulia; Perucci, Carlo A

    2012-06-21

    Caesarean section (CS) rate is a quality of health care indicator frequently used at national and international level. The aim of this study was to assess whether adjustment for Robson's Ten Group Classification System (TGCS), and clinical and socio-demographic variables of the mother and the fetus is necessary for inter-hospital comparisons of CS rates. The study population includes 64,423 deliveries in Emilia-Romagna between January 1, 2003 and December 31, 2004, classified according to theTGCS. Poisson regression was used to estimate crude and adjusted hospital relative risks of CS compared to a reference category. Analyses were carried out in the overall population and separately according to the Robson groups (groups I, II, III, IV and V-X combined). Adjusted relative risks (RR) of CS were estimated using two risk-adjustment models; the first (M1) including the TGCS group as the only adjustment factor; the second (M2) including in addition demographic and clinical confounders identified using a stepwise selection procedure. Percentage variations between crude and adjusted RRs by hospital were calculated to evaluate the confounding effect of covariates. The percentage variations from crude to adjusted RR proved to be similar in M1 and M2 model. However, stratified analyses by Robson's classification groups showed that residual confounding for clinical and demographic variables was present in groups I (nulliparous, single, cephalic, ≥37 weeks, spontaneous labour) and III (multiparous, excluding previous CS, single, cephalic, ≥37 weeks, spontaneous labour) and IV (multiparous, excluding previous CS, single, cephalic, ≥37 weeks, induced or CS before labour) and to a minor extent in groups II (nulliparous, single, cephalic, ≥37 weeks, induced or CS before labour) and IV (multiparous, excluding previous CS, single, cephalic, ≥37 weeks, induced or CS before labour). The TGCS classification is useful for inter-hospital comparison of CS section rates, but

  7. Evaluation of heparin dosing based on adjusted body weight in obese patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Jingyang; John, Billee; Tesdal, Emily

    2016-10-01

    Results of a study to determine whether heparin dosing based on adjusted body weight (BWAdj) instead of actual body weight (ABW) can lead to faster achievement of therapeutic activated partial thromboplastin time (aPTT) values in obese patients are presented. A single-center retrospective cohort study was conducted to assess aPTT outcomes before and after implementation of a revised heparin protocol specifying BWAdj-based dosing for obese patients. The primary outcome was the percentage of first aPTT values within the target range after heparin initiation. Secondary outcomes included the median time to the first on-target aPTT and the rate of clinically significant bleeding. After protocol implementation, there was no significant difference between obese and nonobese patients in the primary outcome (17% and 21%, respectively, had first aPTT values in the target range) or in the median time to achieve the first on-target aPTT value. Among obese patients, on-target aPTT values were achieved significantly faster with BWAdj-versus ABW-based dosing (14 hours versus 24 hours, p = 0.002). Prior to implementation of BWAdj-based heparin dosing, obese patients had a higher rate of clinically significant bleeding than nonobese patients (11% versus 1%, p = 0.01); postimplementation bleeding rates did not differ significantly. The percentages of first aPTT values in the targeted range did not differ significantly in obese and nonobese patients before and after protocol implementation. The use of BWAdj for dose calculation in obese patients was associated with faster achievement of an aPTT value in the target range. Copyright © 2016 by the American Society of Health-System Pharmacists, Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. ADJUSTMENT FACTORS AND ADJUSTMENT STRUCTURE

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Tao Benzao

    2003-01-01

    In this paper, adjustment factors J and R put forward by professor Zhou Jiangwen are introduced and the nature of the adjustment factors and their role in evaluating adjustment structure is discussed and proved.

  9. Risk Based Optimal Fatigue Testing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Faber, M.H.; Kroon, I.B.

    1992-01-01

    Optimal fatigue life testing of materials is considered. Based on minimization of the total expected costs of a mechanical component a strategy is suggested to determine the optimal stress range levels for which additional experiments are to be performed together with an optimal value of the maxi......Optimal fatigue life testing of materials is considered. Based on minimization of the total expected costs of a mechanical component a strategy is suggested to determine the optimal stress range levels for which additional experiments are to be performed together with an optimal value...

  10. Convexity Adjustments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    M. Gaspar, Raquel; Murgoci, Agatha

    2010-01-01

    of particular importance to practitioners: yield convexity adjustments, forward versus futures convexity adjustments, timing and quanto convexity adjustments. We claim that the appropriate way to look into any of these adjustments is as a side effect of a measure change, as proposed by Pelsser (2003...

  11. Risk Classification and Risk-based Safety and Mission Assurance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leitner, Jesse A.

    2014-01-01

    Recent activities to revamp and emphasize the need to streamline processes and activities for Class D missions across the agency have led to various interpretations of Class D, including the lumping of a variety of low-cost projects into Class D. Sometimes terms such as Class D minus are used. In this presentation, mission risk classifications will be traced to official requirements and definitions as a measure to ensure that projects and programs align with the guidance and requirements that are commensurate for their defined risk posture. As part of this, the full suite of risk classifications, formal and informal will be defined, followed by an introduction to the new GPR 8705.4 that is currently under review.GPR 8705.4 lays out guidance for the mission success activities performed at the Classes A-D for NPR 7120.5 projects as well as for projects not under NPR 7120.5. Furthermore, the trends in stepping from Class A into higher risk posture classifications will be discussed. The talk will conclude with a discussion about risk-based safety and mission assuranceat GSFC.

  12. Based on Motivation and Adjust Strategy%立足动机,调整策略

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    杨洪

    2012-01-01

    旅游经营者和游客之间存在着旅游供求关系,因此,旅游经营者必须要做到能够很好地了解旅游者的行为动机,才能调整经营策略来满足旅游者的需求。本文在尽可能透彻地了解旅游者新旧两种动机的基础上,有的放矢对旅游经营者经营策略进行了研究。%There exists a relationship of supply and demand between operators and the tourists;therefore,tour operators should be able to have a good understanding of tourist behavior and motivation so that they can adjust business strategy to meeting the needs of tourists.In this paper,based on a thorough understanding of old and new motivations of the tourists,the author has a detailed research in the operating strategy on tourism operators.

  13. Image-based human age estimation by manifold learning and locally adjusted robust regression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Guodong; Fu, Yun; Dyer, Charles R; Huang, Thomas S

    2008-07-01

    Estimating human age automatically via facial image analysis has lots of potential real-world applications, such as human computer interaction and multimedia communication. However, it is still a challenging problem for the existing computer vision systems to automatically and effectively estimate human ages. The aging process is determined by not only the person's gene, but also many external factors, such as health, living style, living location, and weather conditions. Males and females may also age differently. The current age estimation performance is still not good enough for practical use and more effort has to be put into this research direction. In this paper, we introduce the age manifold learning scheme for extracting face aging features and design a locally adjusted robust regressor for learning and prediction of human ages. The novel approach improves the age estimation accuracy significantly over all previous methods. The merit of the proposed approaches for image-based age estimation is shown by extensive experiments on a large internal age database and the public available FG-NET database.

  14. Study on Electricity Business Expansion and Electricity Sales Based on Seasonal Adjustment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yumin; Han, Xueshan; Wang, Yong; Zhang, Li; Yang, Guangsen; Sun, Donglei; Wang, Bolun

    2017-05-01

    [1] proposed a novel analysis and forecast method of electricity business expansion based on Seasonal Adjustment, we extend this work to include the effect the micro and macro aspects, respectively. From micro aspect, we introduce the concept of load factor to forecast the stable value of electricity consumption of single new consumer after the installation of new capacity of the high-voltage transformer. From macro aspects, considering the growth of business expanding is also stimulated by the growth of electricity sales, it is necessary to analyse the antecedent relationship between business expanding and electricity sales. First, forecast electricity consumption of customer group and release rules of expanding capacity, respectively. Second, contrast the degree of fitting and prediction accuracy to find out the antecedence relationship and analyse the reason. Also, it can be used as a contrast to observe the influence of customer group in different ranges on the prediction precision. Finally, Simulation results indicate that the proposed method is accurate to help determine the value of expanding capacity and electricity consumption.

  15. RISK BASED TESTING A Fuzzy Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ochin Sharma

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Earlier Testers used to concentrate on only functionality, usability or performance sort of testing. Many of these derived by the customer’s desire or need. Same thing was with the risk based testing. If an application used to be real time based or crucial in terms or national security or economic then it was considered to be a risk based testing candidate. But business of individual has equalimportance for the people. Hence now risked based scenario and testing is a must do strategy. But based on the various factors how will you decide when an event or activity is under risk and should be treated on priority based. In real time projects many activities cannot be decided as ‘Yes’ or ‘No’ criteria. For example in a project if any one person is left out of 10 members’ team. It cannot be treated as crucial, but if 5 members left within short span of time. This 50% breakdown in work force definitely be consider as critical, so here we can wave a red (priority signal. So fuzzy approach can be consider as an important deal with respect of risk management

  16. Adjusting for Cell Type Composition in DNA Methylation Data Using a Regression-Based Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Meaghan J; Islam, Sumaiya A; Edgar, Rachel D; Kobor, Michael S

    2017-01-01

    Analysis of DNA methylation in a population context has the potential to uncover novel gene and environment interactions as well as markers of health and disease. In order to find such associations it is important to control for factors which may mask or alter DNA methylation signatures. Since tissue of origin and coinciding cell type composition are major contributors to DNA methylation patterns, and can easily confound important findings, it is vital to adjust DNA methylation data for such differences across individuals. Here we describe the use of a regression method to adjust for cell type composition in DNA methylation data. We specifically discuss what information is required to adjust for cell type composition and then provide detailed instructions on how to perform cell type adjustment on high dimensional DNA methylation data. This method has been applied mainly to Illumina 450K data, but can also be adapted to pyrosequencing or genome-wide bisulfite sequencing data.

  17. Uncertainty-based Estimation of the Secure Range for ISO New England Dynamic Interchange Adjustment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Etingov, Pavel V.; Makarov, Yuri V.; Wu, Di; Hou, Zhangshuan; Sun, Yannan; Maslennikov, S.; Luo, Xiaochuan; Zheng, T.; George, S.; Knowland, T.; Litvinov, E.; Weaver, S.; Sanchez, E.

    2014-04-14

    The paper proposes an approach to estimate the secure range for dynamic interchange adjustment, which assists system operators in scheduling the interchange with neighboring control areas. Uncertainties associated with various sources are incorporated. The proposed method is implemented in the dynamic interchange adjustment (DINA) tool developed by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) for ISO New England. Simulation results are used to validate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

  18. A novel space-based observation strategy for GEO objects based on daily pointing adjustment of multi-sensors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Yun-peng; Li, Ke-bo; Xu, Wei; Chen, Lei; Huang, Jian-yu

    2016-08-01

    Space-based visible (SBV) program has been proved to be with a large advantage to observe geosynchronous earth orbit (GEO) objects. With the development of SBV observation started from 1996, many strategies have come out for the purpose of observing GEO objects more efficiently. However it is a big challenge to visit all the GEO objects in a relatively short time because of the distribution characteristics of GEO belt and limited field of view (FOV) of sensor. And it's also difficult to keep a high coverage of the GEO belt every day in a whole year. In this paper, a space-based observation strategy for GEO objects is designed based on the characteristics of the GEO belt. The mathematical formula of GEO belt is deduced and the evolvement of GEO objects is illustrated. There are basically two kinds of orientation strategies for most observation satellites, i.e., earth-oriented and inertia-directional. Influences of both strategies to their own observation regions are analyzed and compared with each other. A passive optical instrument with daily attitude-adjusting strategies is proposed to increase the daily coverage rate of GEO objects in a whole year. Furthermore, in order to observe more GEO objects in a relatively short time, the strategy of a satellite with multi-sensors is proposed. The installation parameters between different sensors are optimized, more than 98% of GEO satellites can be observed every day and almost all the GEO satellites can be observed every two days with 3 sensors (FOV: 6° × 6°) on the satellite under the strategy of daily pointing adjustment in a whole year.

  19. An immunity based network security risk estimation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI Tao

    2005-01-01

    According to the relationship between the antibody concentration and the pathogen intrusion intensity, here we present an immunity-based model for the network security risk estimation (Insre). In Insre, the concepts and formal definitions of self,nonself, antibody, antigen and lymphocyte in the network security domain are given. Then the mathematical models of the self-tolerance, the clonal selection, the lifecycle of mature lymphocyte, immune memory and immune surveillance are established. Building upon the above models, a quantitative computation model for network security risk estimation,which is based on the calculation of antibody concentration, is thus presented. By using Insre, the types and intensity of network attacks, as well as the risk level of network security, can be calculated quantitatively and in real-time. Our theoretical analysis and experimental results show that Insre is a good solution to real-time risk evaluation for the network security.

  20. Nonlinear relative-proportion-based route adjustment process for day-to-day traffic dynamics: modeling, equilibrium and stability analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Wenlong; Ma, Shoufeng; Tian, Junfang; Li, Geng

    2016-11-01

    Travelers' route adjustment behaviors in a congested road traffic network are acknowledged as a dynamic game process between them. Existing Proportional-Switch Adjustment Process (PSAP) models have been extensively investigated to characterize travelers' route choice behaviors; PSAP has concise structure and intuitive behavior rule. Unfortunately most of which have some limitations, i.e., the flow over adjustment problem for the discrete PSAP model, the absolute cost differences route adjustment problem, etc. This paper proposes a relative-Proportion-based Route Adjustment Process (rePRAP) maintains the advantages of PSAP and overcomes these limitations. The rePRAP describes the situation that travelers on higher cost route switch to those with lower cost at the rate that is unilaterally depended on the relative cost differences between higher cost route and its alternatives. It is verified to be consistent with the principle of the rational behavior adjustment process. The equivalence among user equilibrium, stationary path flow pattern and stationary link flow pattern is established, which can be applied to judge whether a given network traffic flow has reached UE or not by detecting the stationary or non-stationary state of link flow pattern. The stability theorem is proved by the Lyapunov function approach. A simple example is tested to demonstrate the effectiveness of the rePRAP model.

  1. Geographical clustering of prostate cancer grade and stage at diagnosis, before and after adjustment for risk factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Curriero Frank

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Spatial variation in patterns of disease outcomes is often explored with techniques such as cluster detection analysis. In other types of investigations, geographically varying individual or community level characteristics are often used as independent predictors in statistical models which also attempt to explain variation in disease outcomes. However, there is a lack of research which combines geographically referenced exploratory analysis with multilevel models. We used a spatial scan statistic approach, in combination with predicted block group-level disease patterns from multilevel models, to examine geographic variation in prostate cancer grade and stage at diagnosis. Results We examined data from 20928 Maryland men with incident prostate cancer reported to the Maryland Cancer Registry during 1992–1997. Initial cluster detection analyses, prior to adjustment, indicated that there were four statistically significant clusters of high and low rates of each outcome (later stage at diagnosis and higher histologic grade of tumor for prostate cancer cases in Maryland during 1992–1997. After adjustment for individual case attributes, including age, race, year of diagnosis, patterns of clusters changed for both outcomes. Additional adjustment for Census block group and county-level socioeconomic measures changed the cluster patterns further. Conclusions These findings provide evidence that, in locations where adjustment changed patterns of clusters, the adjustment factors may be contributing causes of the original clusters. In addition, clusters identified after adjusting for individual and area-level predictors indicate area of unexplained variation, and merit further small-area investigations.

  2. Transmission History Based Distributed Adaptive Contention Window Adjustment Algorithm Cooperating with Automatic Rate Fallback for Wireless LANs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ogawa, Masakatsu; Hiraguri, Takefumi; Nishimori, Kentaro; Takaya, Kazuhiro; Murakawa, Kazuo

    This paper proposes and investigates a distributed adaptive contention window adjustment algorithm based on the transmission history for wireless LANs called the transmission-history-based distributed adaptive contention window adjustment (THAW) algorithm. The objective of this paper is to reduce the transmission delay and improve the channel throughput compared to conventional algorithms. The feature of THAW is that it adaptively adjusts the initial contention window (CWinit) size in the binary exponential backoff (BEB) algorithm used in the IEEE 802.11 standard according to the transmission history and the automatic rate fallback (ARF) algorithm, which is the most basic algorithm in automatic rate controls. This effect is to keep CWinit at a high value in a congested state. Simulation results show that the THAW algorithm outperforms the conventional algorithms in terms of the channel throughput and delay, even if the timer in the ARF is changed.

  3. Comparison of Satellite-based Basal and Adjusted Evapotranspiration for Several California Crops

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, L.; Lund, C.; Melton, F. S.

    2013-12-01

    There is a continuing need to develop new sources of information on agricultural crop water consumption in the arid Western U.S. Pursuant to the California Water Conservation Act of 2009, for instance, the stakeholder community has developed a set of quantitative indicators involving measurement of evapotranspiration (ET) or crop consumptive use (Calif. Dept. Water Resources, 2012). Fraction of reference ET (or, crop coefficients) can be estimated from a biophysical description of the crop canopy involving green fractional cover (Fc) and height as per the FAO-56 practice standard of Allen et al. (1998). The current study involved 19 fields in California's San Joaquin Valley and Central Coast during 2011-12, growing a variety of specialty and commodity crops: lettuce, raisin, tomato, almond, melon, winegrape, garlic, peach, orange, cotton, corn and wheat. Most crops were on surface or subsurface drip, though micro-jet, sprinkler and flood were represented as well. Fc was retrospectively estimated every 8-16 days by optical satellite data and interpolated to a daily timestep. Crop height was derived as a capped linear function of Fc using published guideline maxima. These variables were used to generate daily basal crop coefficients (Kcb) per field through most or all of each respective growth cycle by the density coefficient approach of Allen & Pereira (2009). A soil water balance model for both topsoil and root zone, based on FAO-56 and using on-site measurements of applied irrigation and precipitation, was used to develop daily soil evaporation and crop water stress coefficients (Ke, Ks). Key meteorological variables (wind speed, relative humidity) were extracted from the California Irrigation Management Information System (CIMIS) for climate correction. Basal crop ET (ETcb) was then derived from Kcb using CIMIS reference ET. Adjusted crop ET (ETc_adj) was estimated by the dual coefficient approach involving Kcb, Ke, and incorporating Ks. Cumulative ETc

  4. VaR BASED RISK MANAGEMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mária Bohdalová

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we discuss the Value–at–Risk concept and we analyse the market risk by using EWMA approach. EWMA (exponentially weighted moving average forecasting technique is a popular measure of various risks in financial risk management. We will compare standard EWMA, robust EWMA and skewed EWMA forecast of VaR. JP Morgan standard EWMA is derived from Gaussian distribution. Robust EWMA is based on Laplace distribution and skewed EWMA is a new approach derived from an asymmetric Laplace distribution. Asymmetric Laplace distribution takes into account both skewness and heavy tails in return distribution and the time varying nature of them in practice. Skewed EWMA VaR is a generalization of the standard EWMA method. Using these approaches we will analyse selected financial series (three European market indexes and one exchange rate. We have found andconfirmed that skewed EWMA forecasting of VaR outperforms the standard EWMA method.

  5. Evaluation and Selection of the Optimal Scheme of Industrial Structure Adjustment Based on DEA

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    FU Lifang; GE Jiaqi; MENG Jun

    2006-01-01

    In the paper, the advanced assessment method of DEA (Date Envelopment Analysis) had been used to evaluate relative efficiency and select the optimal scheme of agricultural industrial structure adjustment. According to the results of DEA models, we analyzed scale benefits of every optional schemes, probed deeply the ultimate reason for not DEA efficient, which clarified the method and approach to improve these optional schemes. Finally, a new method had been proposed to rank and select the optimal scheme. The research is significant to direct the practice of the adjustment of agricultural industrial structure.

  6. Evaluating changes in matrix-based, recovery-adjusted concentrations in paired data for pesticides in groundwater.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zimmerman, Tammy M; Breen, Kevin J

    2012-01-01

    Pesticide concentration data for waters from selected carbonate-rock aquifers in agricultural areas of Pennsylvania were collected in 1993-2009 for occurrence and distribution assessments. A set of 30 wells was visited once in 1993-1995 and again in 2008-2009 to assess concentration changes. The data include censored matched pairs (nondetections of a compound in one or both samples of a pair). A potentially improved approach for assessing concentration changes is presented where (i) concentrations are adjusted with models of matrix-spike recovery and (ii) area-wide temporal change is tested by use of the paired Prentice-Wilcoxon (PPW) statistical test. The PPW results for atrazine, simazine, metolachlor, prometon, and an atrazine degradate, deethylatrazine (DEA), are compared using recovery-adjusted and unadjusted concentrations. Results for adjusted compared with unadjusted concentrations in 2008-2009 compared with 1993-1995 were similar for atrazine and simazine (significant decrease; 95% confidence level) and metolachlor (no change) but differed for DEA (adjusted, decrease; unadjusted, increase) and prometon (adjusted, decrease; unadjusted, no change). The PPW results were different on recovery-adjusted compared with unadjusted concentrations. Not accounting for variability in recovery can mask a true change, misidentify a change when no true change exists, or assign a direction opposite of the true change in concentration that resulted from matrix influences on extraction and laboratory method performance. However, matrix-based models of recovery derived from a laboratory performance dataset from multiple studies for national assessment, as used herein, rather than time- and study-specific recoveries may introduce uncertainty in recovery adjustments for individual samples that should be considered in assessing change.

  7. A Case-Based System for Construction Project Risk Management

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YANG Lan-rong; ZHANG Jin-long

    2002-01-01

    This paper presents a Case-Based system for assisting construction project managers in identifying risk factors and the corresponding construction project risk. The construction project risk identification model captures the case, acquired from previous completed construction projects and experience. A prototype is developed based on the proposed Case-Based system to determine risk factors along with their risk effects.

  8. Nonparametric randomization-based covariate adjustment for stratified analysis of time-to-event or dichotomous outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hussey, Michael A; Koch, Gary G; Preisser, John S; Saville, Benjamin R

    2016-01-01

    Time-to-event or dichotomous outcomes in randomized clinical trials often have analyses using the Cox proportional hazards model or conditional logistic regression, respectively, to obtain covariate-adjusted log hazard (or odds) ratios. Nonparametric Randomization-Based Analysis of Covariance (NPANCOVA) can be applied to unadjusted log hazard (or odds) ratios estimated from a model containing treatment as the only explanatory variable. These adjusted estimates are stratified population-averaged treatment effects and only require a valid randomization to the two treatment groups and avoid key modeling assumptions (e.g., proportional hazards in the case of a Cox model) for the adjustment variables. The methodology has application in the regulatory environment where such assumptions cannot be verified a priori. Application of the methodology is illustrated through three examples on real data from two randomized trials.

  9. Controller Design and Analysis of Spacecraft Automatic Levelling and Equalizing Hoist Device based on Hanging Point Adjustment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tang Laiying

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Spacecraft Automatic Levelling and Equalizing Hoist Device (SALEHD is a kind of hoisting device developed for eccentric spacecraft level-adjusting, based on hanging point adjustment by utilizing XY-workbench. To make the device automatically adjust the spacecraft to be levelling, the controller for SALEHD was designed in this paper. Through geometry and mechanics analysis for SALEHD and the spacecraft, the mathematical model of the controller is established. And then, the link of adaptive control and the link of variable structure control were added into the controller to adapt the unknown parameter and eliminate the interference of support vehicle. The stability of the controller was analysed, through constructing Lyapunov energy function. It was proved that the controller system is asymptotically stable, and converged to origin that is equilibrium point. So the controller can be applied in SALEHD availably and safely.

  10. Architectures and Evaluation for Adjustable Control Autonomy for Space-Based Life Support Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malin, Jane T.; Schreckenghost, Debra K.

    2001-01-01

    In the past five years, a number of automation applications for control of crew life support systems have been developed and evaluated in the Adjustable Autonomy Testbed at NASA's Johnson Space Center. This paper surveys progress on an adjustable autonomous control architecture for situations where software and human operators work together to manage anomalies and other system problems. When problems occur, the level of control autonomy can be adjusted, so that operators and software agents can work together on diagnosis and recovery. In 1997 adjustable autonomy software was developed to manage gas transfer and storage in a closed life support test. Four crewmembers lived and worked in a chamber for 91 days, with both air and water recycling. CO2 was converted to O2 by gas processing systems and wheat crops. With the automation software, significantly fewer hours were spent monitoring operations. System-level validation testing of the software by interactive hybrid simulation revealed problems both in software requirements and implementation. Since that time, we have been developing multi-agent approaches for automation software and human operators, to cooperatively control systems and manage problems. Each new capability has been tested and demonstrated in realistic dynamic anomaly scenarios, using the hybrid simulation tool.

  11. Seat Adjustment Design of an Intelligent Robotic Wheelchair Based on the Stewart Platform

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Po Er Hsu

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available A wheelchair user makes direct contact with the wheelchair seat, which serves as the interface between the user and the wheelchair, for much of any given day. Seat adjustment design is of crucial importance in providing proper seating posture and comfort. This paper presents a multiple‐DOF (degrees of freedom seat adjustment mechanism, which is intended to increase the independence of the wheelchair user while maintaining a concise structure, light weight, and intuitive control interface. This four‐axis Stewart platform is capable of heaving, pitching, and swaying to provide seat elevation, tilt‐in‐space, and sideways movement functions. The geometry and types of joints of this mechanism are carefully arranged so that only one actuator needs to be controlled, enabling the wheelchair user to adjust the seat by simply pressing a button. The seat is also equipped with soft pressure‐sensing pads to provide pressure management by adjusting the seat mechanism once continuous and concentrated pressure is detected. Finally, by comparing with the manual wheelchair, the proposed mechanism demonstrated the easier and more convenient operation with less effort for transfer assistance.

  12. Supervision of Teachers Based on Adjusted Arithmetic Learning in Special Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eriksson, Gota

    2008-01-01

    This article reports on 20 children's learning in arithmetic after teaching was adjusted to their conceptual development. The report covers periods from three months up to three terms in an ongoing intervention study of teachers and children in schools for the intellectually disabled and of remedial teaching in regular schools. The researcher…

  13. The Predictive Relationship between Temperament, School Adjustment, and Academic Achievement: A 2-Year Longitudinal Study of Children At-Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Hendawi, Maha

    2010-01-01

    Individual differences in temperament can be a risk or a protective factor for a child, especially for children at-risk who possess single or multiple risk factors that may interfere with their educational success and affect their healthy development and their life-long outcomes. This research study examined the concurrent and longitudinal…

  14. 风险调整及其在卫生领域中的应用%Risk Adjustment and Its Application in Health Care Field

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    郑娟; 王健

    2014-01-01

    Risk adjustment has been widely used in healthcare management and payment system reforms in many developed countries, which has raised awareness of domestic scholars, although the systematic and comprehensive introduction has not been started. It provides the conception and purpose of the risk adjustment, demonstrates adjustment model building and its application in health care research. It aims on promoting the development and application of the model in China, assist managers to make decisions such as financial planning, medical management, risk control and disease management.%风险调整方法在许多发达国家的医疗管理和支付系统改革中得到广泛应用,并引起了国内学者的一些关注,但系统性的介绍和研究还没有真正开始。文中简单介绍了风险调整的概念、目的,风险调整模型的构建及其在卫生领域的应用研究。希望借此能够促进该模型在国内的发展和应用,帮助管理者进行财政规划、医药管理,风险控制、疾病管理等决策。

  15. Incretin-Based Therapy and Risk of Acute Pancreatitis: A Nationwide Population-Based Case-Control Study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thomsen, Reimar Wernich; Pedersen, Lars; Møller, Niels;

    2015-01-01

    adjusted for history of gallstones, alcoholism, obesity, and other pancreatitis-associated comorbidities and medications. RESULTS: A total of 89 pancreatitis patients (0.69%) and 684 control subjects (0.53%) were ever users of incretins. The crude OR for acute pancreatitis among incretin users was 1.36 (95...... OR comparing incretin-based therapy with other antihyperglycemic therapy internally while also adjusting for diabetes duration and complications was 0.97 (95% CI 0.76-1.23). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that the use of incretin-based drugs appears not to be associated with an increased risk of acute...

  16. Parental Dysphoria and Children's Adjustment: Marital Conflict Styles, Children's Emotional Security, and Parenting as Mediators of Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Du Rocher Schudlich, Tina D.; Cummings, E. Mark

    2007-01-01

    Dimensions of martial conflict, children's emotional security regarding interparental conflict, and parenting style were examined as mediators between parental dysphoria and child adjustment. A community sample of 262 children, ages 8-16, participated with their parents. Behavioral observations were made of parents' interactions during marital…

  17. 13 CFR 120.1000 - Risk-Based Lender Oversight.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 13 Business Credit and Assistance 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Risk-Based Lender Oversight. 120.1000 Section 120.1000 Business Credit and Assistance SMALL BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION BUSINESS LOANS Risk-Based Lender Oversight Supervision § 120.1000 Risk-Based Lender Oversight. (a) Risk-Based...

  18. 76 FR 1889 - Risk-Based Capital Guidelines: Market Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-11

    ... basic components of sound market risk management. For example, the current market risk capital rule requires an independent risk control unit that reports directly to senior management and an internal risk measurement model that is integrated into the daily management process. The quantitative criteria include the...

  19. Assessment on Different Schemes of Industrial Structure Adjustment Based on DEA

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    FU Li-fang; MENG Jun

    2004-01-01

    DEA is a new research field in operations research. It has unique virtues in dealing with assessment problem with multi-inputs especially multi-outputs, In this paper, DEA model of Dεc2R has been applied to evaluate the relative efficiency of several different schemes of industrial structure adjustment of agriculture and finally select the optimal scheme. Furthermore, the inferior scheme has been improved according to some useful insights got from DEA model.

  20. Risk assessment of soybean-based phytoestrogens.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwack, Seung Jun; Kim, Kyu-Bong; Kim, Hyung Sik; Yoon, Kyung Sil; Lee, Byung Mu

    2009-01-01

    Koreans generally consume high quantities of soybean-based foods that contain a variety of phytoestrogens, such as, daidzein, zenistein, and biochalin A. However, phytoestrogens are considered to be potential endocrine-disrupting chemicals (EDC), which interfere with the normal function of the hormonal and reproductive systems. Therefore, dietary exposure to soybean-based phytoestrogens is of concern for Koreans, and comparative dietary risk assessments are required between Japanese (high consumers) versus Americans (low consumers). In this study, a relative risk assessment was conducted based upon daily intake levels of soybean-based foods and phytoestrogens in a Korean cohort, and the risks of photoestrogens were compared with those posed by estradiol and other EDC. Koreans approximately 30-49 yr of age consume on average a total of 135.2 g/d of soy-based foods including soybean, soybean sauce, soybean paste, and soybean oil, and 0.51 mg/kg body weight (bw)/d of phytoestrogens such as daidzein and genistein. Using estimated daily intakes (EDI) and estrogenic potencies (EP), margins of safety (MOS) were calculated where 0.05 is for estradiol (MOS value estrogenic effect); thus, MOS values of 1.89 for Japanese, 1.96 for Koreans, and 5.55 for Americans indicate that consumption of soybean-based foods exerted no apparent estrogenic effects, as all MOS values were all higher than 1. For other synthetic EDC used as reference values, MOS values were dieldrin 27, nonylphenol 250, butyl benzyl phthalate 321, bisphenol A 1000, biochanin A 2203, and coumesterol 2898. These results suggest that dietary exposure to phytoestrogens, such as daidzein and genistein, poses a relatively higher health risk for humans than synthetic EDC, although MOS values were all greater than 1.

  1. Credit risk evaluation based on social media.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Yang; Gu, Jing; Zhou, Zongfang

    2016-07-01

    Social media has been playing an increasingly important role in the sharing of individuals' opinions on many financial issues, including credit risk in investment decisions. This paper analyzes whether these opinions, which are transmitted through social media, can accurately predict enterprises' future credit risk. We consider financial statements oriented evaluation results based on logit and probit approaches as the benchmarks. We then conduct textual analysis to retrieve both posts and their corresponding commentaries published on two of the most popular social media platforms for financial investors in China. Professional advice from financial analysts is also investigated in this paper. We surprisingly find that the opinions extracted from both posts and commentaries surpass opinions of analysts in terms of credit risk prediction.

  2. Response bias, weighting adjustments, and design effects in the Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (Army STARRS).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kessler, Ronald C; Heeringa, Steven G; Colpe, Lisa J; Fullerton, Carol S; Gebler, Nancy; Hwang, Irving; Naifeh, James A; Nock, Matthew K; Sampson, Nancy A; Schoenbaum, Michael; Zaslavsky, Alan M; Stein, Murray B; Ursano, Robert J

    2013-12-01

    The Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (Army STARRS) is a multi-component epidemiological and neurobiological study designed to generate actionable recommendations to reduce US Army suicides and increase knowledge about determinants of suicidality. Three Army STARRS component studies are large-scale surveys: one of new soldiers prior to beginning Basic Combat Training (BCT; n = 50,765 completed self-administered questionnaires); another of other soldiers exclusive of those in BCT (n = 35,372); and a third of three Brigade Combat Teams about to deploy to Afghanistan who are being followed multiple times after returning from deployment (n = 9421). Although the response rates in these surveys are quite good (72.0-90.8%), questions can be raised about sample biases in estimating prevalence of mental disorders and suicidality, the main outcomes of the surveys based on evidence that people in the general population with mental disorders are under-represented in community surveys. This paper presents the results of analyses designed to determine whether such bias exists in the Army STARRS surveys and, if so, to develop weights to correct for these biases. Data are also presented on sample inefficiencies introduced by weighting and sample clustering and on analyses of the trade-off between bias and efficiency in weight trimming.

  3. Model based risk assessment - the CORAS framework

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gran, Bjoern Axel; Fredriksen, Rune; Thunem, Atoosa P-J.

    2004-04-15

    Traditional risk analysis and assessment is based on failure-oriented models of the system. In contrast to this, model-based risk assessment (MBRA) utilizes success-oriented models describing all intended system aspects, including functional, operational and organizational aspects of the target. The target models are then used as input sources for complementary risk analysis and assessment techniques, as well as a basis for the documentation of the assessment results. The EU-funded CORAS project developed a tool-supported methodology for the application of MBRA in security-critical systems. The methodology has been tested with successful outcome through a series of seven trial within the telemedicine and ecommerce areas. The CORAS project in general and the CORAS application of MBRA in particular have contributed positively to the visibility of model-based risk assessment and thus to the disclosure of several potentials for further exploitation of various aspects within this important research field. In that connection, the CORAS methodology's possibilities for further improvement towards utilization in more complex architectures and also in other application domains such as the nuclear field can be addressed. The latter calls for adapting the framework to address nuclear standards such as IEC 60880 and IEC 61513. For this development we recommend applying a trial driven approach within the nuclear field. The tool supported approach for combining risk analysis and system development also fits well with the HRP proposal for developing an Integrated Design Environment (IDE) providing efficient methods and tools to support control room systems design. (Author)

  4. Pesticide use, environmental spillovers and efficiency: A nonparametric risk-adjusted efficiency approach applied to Dutch arable farming

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Skevas, T.; Stefanou, S.E.; Oude Lansink, A.G.J.M.

    2014-01-01

    Pesticides are widely used by crop producers in developed countries to combat risk associated with pests and diseases. However, their indiscriminate use can lead to various environmental spillovers that may alter the agricultural production environment thus contributing to production risk. This

  5. Node Self-Deployment Algorithm Based on an Uneven Cluster with Radius Adjusting for Underwater Sensor Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peng Jiang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Existing move-restricted node self-deployment algorithms are based on a fixed node communication radius, evaluate the performance based on network coverage or the connectivity rate and do not consider the number of nodes near the sink node and the energy consumption distribution of the network topology, thereby degrading network reliability and the energy consumption balance. Therefore, we propose a distributed underwater node self-deployment algorithm. First, each node begins the uneven clustering based on the distance on the water surface. Each cluster head node selects its next-hop node to synchronously construct a connected path to the sink node. Second, the cluster head node adjusts its depth while maintaining the layout formed by the uneven clustering and then adjusts the positions of in-cluster nodes. The algorithm originally considers the network reliability and energy consumption balance during node deployment and considers the coverage redundancy rate of all positions that a node may reach during the node position adjustment. Simulation results show, compared to the connected dominating set (CDS based depth computation algorithm, that the proposed algorithm can increase the number of the nodes near the sink node and improve network reliability while guaranteeing the network connectivity rate. Moreover, it can balance energy consumption during network operation, further improve network coverage rate and reduce energy consumption.

  6. Immediate Postoperative Intraocular Pressure Adjustment Reduces Risk of Cystoid Macular Edema after Uncomplicated Micro Incision Coaxial Phacoemulsification Cataract Surgery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jarstad, Allison R.; Chung, Gary W.; Tester, Robert A.; Day, Linda E.

    2017-01-01

    Purpose To determine the accuracy of visual estimation of immediate postoperative intraocular pressure (IOP) following microincision cataract surgery (MICS) and the effect of immediate postoperative IOP adjustment on prevention of cystoid macular edema (CME). Setting Ambulatory surgical center. Methods Prospective, randomized analysis of 170 eyes in 135 patients with MICS, performed in a Medicare approved outpatient ambulatory surgery center. Surgical parameters included a keratome incision of 1.5 mm to 2.8 mm, topical anesthetic, case completion IOP estimation by palpation and patient visualization of light, and IOP adjustment before exiting the operating theater. IOPs were classified into three groups: low (21 to 30 mmHg). IOP measurements were repeated 1 day after surgery. Optical coherence tomography (Stratus OCT, Zeiss) was measured at 2 weeks. An increase in foveal thickness greater than 15 µm was used to indicate CME. Statistical analysis was performed using one- and two-tailed Student's t-tests. Results Mean minimal foveal thickness averaged 207.15 µm in the low pressure group, 205.14 µm in the normal IOP group, and 210.48 µm in the elevated IOP group 2 weeks following surgery. CME occurred in 14 of 170 eyes (8.2%) at 2 weeks (low IOP, 35.7%; normal IOP, 14.2%; elevated IOP, 50.0%). Change in IOP from the operating theater to 1 day after surgery was within +/−5 mmHg in 54 eyes (31.7%), elevated by 6 to 15 mmHg in 22 eyes (12.9%), and elevated more than 15 mmHg in four eyes (2.3%). IOP was reduced by 6 mmHg to 15 mmHg in 39 eyes (22.9%) and reduced by more than 15 mmHg in nine eyes (5.3%). Conclusions Immediate postoperative adjustment of IOP may prevent CME in MICS. Physicians can improve their ability to estimate postoperative IOP with experience in tonometry to verify immediate postoperative IOP. There are patient safety and economic benefits to immediate IOP adjustment in the operating theater. Synopsis Immediate postoperative IOP adjustment

  7. A Water Hammer Protection Method for Mine Drainage System Based on Velocity Adjustment of Hydraulic Control Valve

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yanfei Kou

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Water hammer analysis is a fundamental work of pipeline systems design process for water distribution networks. The main characteristics for mine drainage system are the limited space and high cost of equipment and pipeline changing. In order to solve the protection problem of valve-closing water hammer for mine drainage system, a water hammer protection method for mine drainage system based on velocity adjustment of HCV (Hydraulic Control Valve is proposed in this paper. The mathematic model of water hammer fluctuations is established based on the characteristic line method. Then, boundary conditions of water hammer controlling for mine drainage system are determined and its simplex model is established. The optimization adjustment strategy is solved from the mathematic model of multistage valve-closing. Taking a mine drainage system as an example, compared results between simulations and experiments show that the proposed method and the optimized valve-closing strategy are effective.

  8. An adjustable focusing system for a 2 MeV H- ion beam line based on permanent magnet quadrupoles

    CERN Document Server

    Nirkko, M; Ereditato, A; Kreslo, I; Scampoli, P; Weber, M

    2012-01-01

    A compact adjustable focusing system for a 2 MeV H- RFQ Linac is designed, constructed and tested based on four permanent magnet quadrupoles (PMQ). A PMQ model is realised using finite element simulations, providing an integrated field gradient of 2.35 T with a maximal field gradient of 57 T/m. A prototype is constructed and the magnetic field is measured, demonstrating good agreement with the simulation. Particle track simulations provide initial values for the quadrupole positions. Accordingly, four PMQs are constructed and assembled on the beam line, their positions are then tuned to obtain a minimal beam spot size of (1.2 x 2.2) mm^2 on target. This paper describes an adjustable PMQ beam line for an external ion beam. The novel compact design based on commercially available NdFeB magnets allows high flexibility for ion beam applications.

  9. Droop Control with an Adjustable Complex Virtual Impedance Loop based on Cloud Model Theory

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Li, Yan; Shuai, Zhikang; Xu, Qinming

    2016-01-01

    not only can avoid the active/reactive power coupling, but also it may reduce the output voltage drop of the PCC voltage. The proposed adjustable complex virtual impedance loop is putted into the conventional P/Q droop control to overcome the difficulty of getting the line impedance, which may change...... sometimes. The cloud model theory is applied to get online the changing line impedance value, which relies on the relevance of the reactive power responding the changing line impedance. The verification of the proposed control strategy is done according to the simulation in a low voltage microgrid in Matlab....

  10. Simply Adjustable Sinusoidal Oscillator Based on Negative Three-Port Current Conveyors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Sotner

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available The paper deals with sinusoidal oscillator employing two controlled second-generation negative-current conveyors and two capacitors. The proposed oscillator has a simple circuit configuration. Electronic (voltage adjusting of the oscillation frequency and condition of oscillation are possible. The presented circuit is verified in PSpice utilizing macro models of commercially available negative current conveyors. The circuit is also verified by experimental measurements. Important characteristics and drawbacks of the proposed circuit and influences of real active elements in the designed circuit are discussed in detail.

  11. A Water Hammer Protection Method for Mine Drainage System Based on Velocity Adjustment of Hydraulic Control Valve

    OpenAIRE

    Yanfei Kou; Jieming Yang; Ziming Kou

    2016-01-01

    Water hammer analysis is a fundamental work of pipeline systems design process for water distribution networks. The main characteristics for mine drainage system are the limited space and high cost of equipment and pipeline changing. In order to solve the protection problem of valve-closing water hammer for mine drainage system, a water hammer protection method for mine drainage system based on velocity adjustment of HCV (Hydraulic Control Valve) is proposed in this paper. The mathematic mode...

  12. Is use of fall risk-increasing drugs in an elderly population associated with an increased risk of hip fracture, after adjustment for multimorbidity level

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorell, Kristine; Ranstad, Karin; Midlöv, Patrik;

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Risk factors for hip fracture are well studied because of the negative impact on patients and the community, with mortality in the first year being almost 30% in the elderly. Age, gender and fall risk-increasing drugs, identified by the National Board of Health and Welfare in Sweden...... level and risk of hip fracture in an elderly population. METHODS: Data were from Östergötland County, Sweden, and comprised the total population in the county aged 75 years and older during 2006. The odds ratio (OR) for hip fracture during use of fall risk-increasing drugs was calculated by multivariate......, are well known risk factors for hip fracture, but how multimorbidity level affects the risk of hip fracture during use of fall risk-increasing drugs is to our knowledge not as well studied. This study explored the relationship between use of fall risk-increasing drugs in combination with multimorbidity...

  13. The Impact of Disability and Social Determinants of Health on Condition-Specific Readmissions beyond Medicare Risk Adjustments: A Cohort Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meddings, Jennifer; Reichert, Heidi; Smith, Shawna N; Iwashyna, Theodore J; Langa, Kenneth M; Hofer, Timothy P; McMahon, Laurence F

    2017-01-01

    Readmission rates after pneumonia, heart failure, and acute myocardial infarction hospitalizations are risk-adjusted for age, gender, and medical comorbidities and used to penalize hospitals. To assess the impact of disability and social determinants of health on condition-specific readmissions beyond current risk adjustment. Retrospective cohort study of Medicare patients using 1) linked Health and Retirement Study-Medicare claims data (HRS-CMS) and 2) Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project State Inpatient Databases (Florida, Washington) linked with ZIP Code-level measures from the Census American Community Survey (ACS-HCUP). Multilevel logistic regression models assessed the impact of disability and selected social determinants of health on readmission beyond current risk adjustment. Outcomes measured were readmissions ≤30 days after hospitalizations for pneumonia, heart failure, or acute myocardial infarction. HRS-CMS models included disability measures (activities of daily living [ADL] limitations, cognitive impairment, nursing home residence, home healthcare use) and social determinants of health (spouse, children, wealth, Medicaid, race). ACS-HCUP model measures were ZIP Code-percentage of residents ≥65 years of age with ADL difficulty, spouse, income, Medicaid, and patient-level and hospital-level race. For pneumonia, ≥3 ADL difficulties (OR 1.61, CI 1.079-2.391) and prior home healthcare needs (OR 1.68, CI 1.204-2.355) increased readmission in HRS-CMS models (N = 1631); ADL difficulties (OR 1.20, CI 1.063-1.352) and 'other' race (OR 1.14, CI 1.001-1.301) increased readmission in ACS-HCUP models (N = 27,297). For heart failure, children (OR 0.66, CI 0.437-0.984) and wealth (OR 0.53, CI 0.349-0.787) lowered readmission in HRS-CMS models (N = 2068), while black (OR 1.17, CI 1.056-1.292) and 'other' race (OR 1.14, CI 1.036-1.260) increased readmission in ACS-HCUP models (N = 37,612). For acute myocardial infarction, nursing home status

  14. Adaptive Kalman Filter Based on Adjustable Sampling Interval in Burst Detection for Water Distribution System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Doo Yong Choi

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Rapid detection of bursts and leaks in water distribution systems (WDSs can reduce the social and economic costs incurred through direct loss of water into the ground, additional energy demand for water supply, and service interruptions. Many real-time burst detection models have been developed in accordance with the use of supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA systems and the establishment of district meter areas (DMAs. Nonetheless, no consideration has been given to how frequently a flow meter measures and transmits data for predicting breaks and leaks in pipes. This paper analyzes the effect of sampling interval when an adaptive Kalman filter is used for detecting bursts in a WDS. A new sampling algorithm is presented that adjusts the sampling interval depending on the normalized residuals of flow after filtering. The proposed algorithm is applied to a virtual sinusoidal flow curve and real DMA flow data obtained from Jeongeup city in South Korea. The simulation results prove that the self-adjusting algorithm for determining the sampling interval is efficient and maintains reasonable accuracy in burst detection. The proposed sampling method has a significant potential for water utilities to build and operate real-time DMA monitoring systems combined with smart customer metering systems.

  15. Rigorous Strip Adjustment of Airborne Laserscanning Data Based on the Icp Algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glira, P.; Pfeifer, N.; Briese, C.; Ressl, C.

    2015-08-01

    Airborne Laser Scanning (ALS) is an efficient method for the acquisition of dense and accurate point clouds over extended areas. To ensure a gapless coverage of the area, point clouds are collected strip wise with a considerable overlap. The redundant information contained in these overlap areas can be used, together with ground-truth data, to re-calibrate the ALS system and to compensate for systematic measurement errors. This process, usually denoted as strip adjustment, leads to an improved georeferencing of the ALS strips, or in other words, to a higher data quality of the acquired point clouds. We present a fully automatic strip adjustment method that (a) uses the original scanner and trajectory measurements, (b) performs an on-the-job calibration of the entire ALS multisensor system, and (c) corrects the trajectory errors individually for each strip. Like in the Iterative Closest Point (ICP) algorithm, correspondences are established iteratively and directly between points of overlapping ALS strips (avoiding a time-consuming segmentation and/or interpolation of the point clouds). The suitability of the method for large amounts of data is demonstrated on the basis of an ALS block consisting of 103 strips.

  16. Infections and risk-adjusted length of stay and hospital mortality in Polish Neonatology Intensive Care Units

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Różańska

    2015-06-01

    Conclusions: The general condition of VLBW infants statistically increase both their risk of mortality and LOS; this is in contrast to the presence of infection, which significantly prolonged LOS only.

  17. Big data based fraud risk management at Alibaba

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Chen, Jidong; Tao, Ye; Wang, Haoran; Chen, Tao

    2015-01-01

    .... This paper is to introduce the Fraud Risk Management at Alibaba under big data. Alibaba has built a fraud risk monitoring and management system based on real-time big data processing and intelligent risk models...

  18. The Risks and Rewards of Value-Based Reimbursement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henkel, Robert J; Maryland, Patricia A

    2015-01-01

    As healthcare systems across the country shift to value-based care, they face an enormous challenge. Not only must they reimagine how they identify, engage, and manage the care of patients, they also need to determine new ways of engaging and aligning physicians and other caregivers in creating better-coordinated care across the continuum. This article explores how healthcare systems making the transition from volume to value can maximize their reward while managing their risk. As the largest not-for-profit healthcare system in the United States and the largest Catholic healthcare system in the world, Ascension is committed to making its own transition, marked by broad-based innovation. We call this goal the Quadruple Aim: improving health outcomes, patient experiences, and provider experiences while lowering the overall cost of care. Healthcare systems and providers have many value-based models to choose from, including pay for performance (P4P), shared savings, bundled payments, shared risk, global capitation, and provider-sponsored health plans. Analysis of these options should include an evaluation of market readiness (i.e., the ability of a health system to align with the needs of employers or commercial insurers in a given market). Healthcare systems also must be prepared to invest in resources that facilitate effective transitions and continuity of care--for example, care management. In addition, they need to recognize that as they focus on wellness, inpatient volumes will decline, requiring cost-structure adjustments and added ancillary services to compensate for this decline. Some healthcare systems are even exploring the possibility of becoming their own payer, taking on more risk and responsibility for the health of patients and populations.

  19. Study on Optimization of Electromagnetic Relay's Reaction Torque Characteristics Based on Adjusted Parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhai, Guofu; Wang, Qiya; Ren, Wanbin

    The cooperative characteristics of electromagnetic relay's attraction torque and reaction torque are the key property to ensure its reliability, and it is important to attain better cooperative characteristics by analyzing and optimizing relay's electromagnetic system and mechanical system. From the standpoint of changing reaction torque of mechanical system, in this paper, adjusted parameters (armature's maximum angular displacement αarm_max, initial return spring's force Finiti_return_spring, normally closed (NC) contacts' force FNC_contacts, contacts' gap δgap, and normally opened (NO) contacts' over travel δNO_contacts) were adopted as design variables, and objective function was provided for with the purpose of increasing breaking velocities of both NC contacts and NO contacts. Finally, genetic algorithm (GA) was used to attain optimization of the objective function. Accuracy of calculation for the relay's dynamic characteristics was verified by experiment.

  20. Dynamic Online Bandwidth Adjustment Scheme Based on Kalai-Smorodinsky Bargaining Solution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Sungwook

    Virtual Private Network (VPN) is a cost effective method to provide integrated multimedia services. Usually heterogeneous multimedia data can be categorized into different types according to the required Quality of Service (QoS). Therefore, VPN should support the prioritization among different services. In order to support multiple types of services with different QoS requirements, efficient bandwidth management algorithms are important issues. In this paper, I employ the Kalai-Smorodinsky Bargaining Solution (KSBS) for the development of an adaptive bandwidth adjustment algorithm. In addition, to effectively manage the bandwidth in VPNs, the proposed control paradigm is realized in a dynamic online approach, which is practical for real network operations. The simulations show that the proposed scheme can significantly improve the system performances.

  1. Subwavelength ripples adjustment based on electron dynamics control by using shaped ultrafast laser pulse trains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Lan; Shi, Xuesong; Li, Xin; Yuan, Yanping; Wang, Cong; Lu, Yongfeng

    2012-09-10

    This study reveals that the periods, ablation areas and orientations of periodic surface structures (ripples) in fused silica can be adjusted by using designed femtosecond (fs) laser pulse trains to control transient localized electron dynamics and corresponding material properties. By increasing the pulse delays from 0 to 100 fs, the ripple periods are changed from ~550 nm to ~255 nm and the orientation is rotated by 90°. The nearwavelength/subwavelength ripple periods are close to the fundamental/second-harmonic wavelengths in fused silica respectively. The subsequent subpulse of the train significantly impacts free electron distributions generated by the previous subpulse(s), which might influence the formation mechanism of ripples and the surface morphology.

  2. Controlling fractional order chaotic systems based on Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy model and adaptive adjustment mechanism

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zheng Yongai, E-mail: zhengyongai@163.co [Department of Computer, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou, 225009 (China); Nian Yibei [School of Energy and Power Engineering, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou, 225009 (China); Wang Dejin [Department of Computer, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou, 225009 (China)

    2010-12-01

    In this Letter, a kind of novel model, called the generalized Takagi-Sugeno (T-S) fuzzy model, is first developed by extending the conventional T-S fuzzy model. Then, a simple but efficient method to control fractional order chaotic systems is proposed using the generalized T-S fuzzy model and adaptive adjustment mechanism (AAM). Sufficient conditions are derived to guarantee chaos control from the stability criterion of linear fractional order systems. The proposed approach offers a systematic design procedure for stabilizing a large class of fractional order chaotic systems from the literature about chaos research. The effectiveness of the approach is tested on fractional order Roessler system and fractional order Lorenz system.

  3. Reliability adjustment: a necessity for trauma center ranking and benchmarking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hashmi, Zain G; Dimick, Justin B; Efron, David T; Haut, Elliott R; Schneider, Eric B; Zafar, Syed Nabeel; Schwartz, Diane; Cornwell, Edward E; Haider, Adil H

    2013-07-01

    Currently, trauma center quality benchmarking is based on risk adjusted observed-expected (O/E) mortality ratios. However, failure to account for number of patients has been recently shown to produce unreliable mortality estimates, especially for low-volume centers. This study explores the effect of reliability adjustment (RA), a statistical technique developed to eliminate bias introduced by low volume on risk-adjusted trauma center benchmarking. Analysis of the National Trauma Data Bank 2010 was performed. Patients 16 years or older with blunt or penetrating trauma and an Injury Severity Score (ISS) of 9 or greater were included. Based on the statistically accepted standards of the Trauma Quality Improvement Program methodology, risk-adjusted mortality rates were generated for each center and used to rank them accordingly. Hierarchical logistic regression modeling was then performed to adjust these rates for reliability using an empiric Bayes approach. The impact of RA was examined by (1) recalculating interfacility variations in adjusted mortality rates and (2) comparing adjusted hospital mortality quintile rankings before and after RA. A total of 557 facilities (with 278,558 patients) were included. RA significantly reduced the variation in risk-adjusted mortality rates between centers from 14-fold (0.7-9.8%) to only 2-fold (4.4-9.6%) after RA. This reduction in variation was most profound for smaller centers. A total of 68 "best" hospitals and 18 "worst" hospitals based on current risk adjustment methods were reclassified after performing RA. "Reliability adjustment" dramatically reduces variations in risk-adjusted mortality arising from statistical noise, especially for lower volume centers. Moreover, the absence of RA had a profound impact on hospital performance assessment, suggesting that nearly one of every six hospitals in National Trauma Data Bank would have been inappropriately placed among the very best or very worst quintile of rankings. RA should be

  4. Risk of Stroke in Patients With Spontaneous Pneumothorax: A Nationwide, Population-Based Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Ching-Yuan; Yeh, Diana Yu-Wung; Lin, Cheng-Li; Kao, Chia-Hung

    2016-04-01

    The association between spontaneous pneumothorax (SP) and stroke has not been reported, and this study aimed to explore this association. We used the National Health Insurance Research Database for conducting a nationwide, population-based, retrospective cohort study of patients newly hospitalized for SP from 2000 to 2010. A total of 2541 patients with newly diagnosed SP were included and compared with patients without SP. We observed that patients with SP were at higher risk for developing stroke, with an adjusted hazard ratio (HR) of 1.56. In addition, these patients had a significantly higher risk of hemorrhagic stroke (adjusted HR = 2.22) than of ischemic stroke (adjusted HR = 1.48). The risk of stroke was the highest in the initial 4 months after hospitalization for SP (adjusted HR = 3.41, 95% confidence interval = 1.98-5.87). In conclusion, our study revealed a correlation between stroke and a history of SP, and the risk of stroke after SP was time sensitive.

  5. Chiropractic Adjustment

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... syndrome) A certain type of stroke (vertebral artery dissection) after neck manipulation Don't seek chiropractic adjustment ... Chiropractic treatment. Rochester, Minn.: Mayo Foundation for Medical Education and Research; 2015. Shekelle P, et al. Spinal ...

  6. 12 CFR 932.3 - Risk-based capital requirement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... credit risk capital requirement, its market risk capital requirement, and its operations risk capital... 12 Banks and Banking 7 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Risk-based capital requirement. 932.3 Section 932.3 Banks and Banking FEDERAL HOUSING FINANCE BOARD FEDERAL HOME LOAN BANK RISK MANAGEMENT AND...

  7. Cumulative Socioeconomic Status Risk, Allostatic Load, and Adjustment: A Prospective Latent Profile Analysis with Contextual and Genetic Protective Factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brody, Gene H.; Yu, Tianyi; Chen, Yi-Fu; Kogan, Steven M.; Evans, Gary W.; Beach, Steven R. H.; Windle, Michael; Simons, Ronald L.; Gerrard, Meg; Gibbons, Frederick X.; Philibert, Robert A.

    2013-01-01

    The health disparities literature has identified a common pattern among middle-aged African Americans that includes high rates of chronic disease along with low rates of psychiatric disorders despite exposure to high levels of cumulative socioeconomic status (SES) risk. The current study was designed to test hypotheses about the developmental…

  8. Adjustable-Viewing-Angle Endoscopic Tool for Skull Base and Brain Surgery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bae, Youngsam; Liao, Anna; Manohara, Harish; Shahinian, Hrayr

    2008-01-01

    The term Multi-Angle and Rear Viewing Endoscopic tooL (MARVEL) denotes an auxiliary endoscope, now undergoing development, that a surgeon would use in conjunction with a conventional endoscope to obtain additional perspective. The role of the MARVEL in endoscopic brain surgery would be similar to the role of a mouth mirror in dentistry. Such a tool is potentially useful for in-situ planetary geology applications for the close-up imaging of unexposed rock surfaces in cracks or those not in the direct line of sight. A conventional endoscope provides mostly a frontal view that is, a view along its longitudinal axis and, hence, along a straight line extending from an opening through which it is inserted. The MARVEL could be inserted through the same opening as that of the conventional endoscope, but could be adjusted to provide a view from almost any desired angle. The MARVEL camera image would be displayed, on the same monitor as that of the conventional endoscopic image, as an inset within the conventional endoscopic image. For example, while viewing a tumor from the front in the conventional endoscopic image, the surgeon could simultaneously view the tumor from the side or the rear in the MARVEL image, and could thereby gain additional visual cues that would aid in precise three-dimensional positioning of surgical tools to excise the tumor. Indeed, a side or rear view through the MARVEL could be essential in a case in which the object of surgical interest was not visible from the front. The conceptual design of the MARVEL exploits the surgeon s familiarity with endoscopic surgical tools. The MARVEL would include a miniature electronic camera and miniature radio transmitter mounted on the tip of a surgical tool derived from an endo-scissor (see figure). The inclusion of the radio transmitter would eliminate the need for wires, which could interfere with manipulation of this and other surgical tools. The handgrip of the tool would be connected to a linkage similar to

  9. Obstetric conditions and risk of first admission with schizophrenia: A Danish national register based study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Byrne, Majella; Agerbo, Esben; Bennedsen, Birgit

    2007-01-01

    and 24, 826 individually matched controls. Adjusting for the other obstetric factors, family psychiatric history, and socio-economic and demographic factors, risk of schizophrenia was associated with maternal non-attendance at antenatal appointments (Incidence Rate Ratio (IRR) 2.08, 95% CI: 1.0, 4......A range of complications of pregnancy, abnormal fetal growth and development, and complications of delivery have been associated with increased risk of schizophrenia. Few studies have been able to adjust for a broad range of potential confounding factors. A national population nested case......-control study based on Danish longitudinal registers was conducted to investigate the risk of schizophrenia associated with exposure to a range of obstetric events. The sample included 1039 first admissions to, or contacts with Danish psychiatric services with an ICD-8 or ICD-10 diagnosis of schizophrenia...

  10. 78 FR 76521 - Risk-Based Capital Guidelines; Market Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-12-18

    ... capital adequacy and risk profile. In those cases, a banking organization must disclose the general nature... no longer reflective of the bank's capital adequacy and risk profile, then a brief discussion of this... definition of ``Covered position'' to read as follows: Appendix E to Part 225--Capital Adequacy...

  11. Risk-Based Assessment of Structural Robustness

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oana-Mihaela Ioniţă

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Providing safety of structures is one of the main aims of design. In traditional design it is achieved by designing structural components against specified limit states. However, as showed the Ronan Point collapse in UK in 1968, when a gas explosion in one of flats on the 18-th floor of the residential building caused the failure of an entire section of the building, this approach is not sufficient. The approach does not exclude the risk of local damage to a structure due to accidental events that can occur during service life of the structure. While probability of occurrence of such events for ordinary structures is low, and, therefore, they are not considered explicitly in design, their effect on structural safety becomes significant if the structure is not robust, that is when some local damage can trigger a chain reaction of failures causing collapse of the whole structure or of a major part of it, the so called progressive collapse. The purpose of this paper is to outline the basic premises for the utilization of risk assessment in evaluating the robustness of structures. In the following the robustness assessment is understood as a process of decision making based on risks.

  12. [Motion control of moving mirror based on fixed-mirror adjustment in FTIR spectrometer].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Zhong-bing; Xu, Xian-ze; Le, Yi; Xu, Feng-qiu; Li, Jun-wei

    2012-08-01

    The performance of the uniform motion of the moving mirror, which is the only constant motion part in FTIR spectrometer, and the performance of the alignment of the fixed mirror play a key role in FTIR spectrometer, and affect the interference effect and the quality of the spectrogram and may restrict the precision and resolution of the instrument directly. The present article focuses on the research on the uniform motion of the moving mirror and the alignment of the fixed mirror. In order to improve the FTIR spectrometer, the maglev support system was designed for the moving mirror and the phase detection technology was adopted to adjust the tilt angle between the moving mirror and the fixed mirror. This paper also introduces an improved fuzzy PID control algorithm to get the accurate speed of the moving mirror and realize the control strategy from both hardware design and algorithm. The results show that the development of the moving mirror motion control system gets sufficient accuracy and real-time, which can ensure the uniform motion of the moving mirror and the alignment of the fixed mirror.

  13. Virtual Environments, Online Racial Discrimination, and Adjustment among a Diverse, School-Based Sample of Adolescents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tynes, Brendesha M.; Rose, Chad A.; Hiss, Sophia; Umaña-Taylor, Adriana J.; Mitchell, Kimberly; Williams, David

    2015-01-01

    Given the recent rise in online hate activity and the increased amount of time adolescents spend with media, more research is needed on their experiences with racial discrimination in virtual environments. This cross-sectional study examines the association between amount of time spent online, traditional and online racial discrimination and adolescent adjustment, including depressive symptoms, anxiety and externalizing behaviors. The study also explores the role that social identities, including race and gender, play in these associations. Online surveys were administered to 627 sixth through twelfth graders in K-8, middle and high schools. Multiple regression results revealed that discrimination online was associated with all three outcome variables. Additionally, a significant interaction between online discrimination by time online was found for externalizing behaviors indicating that increased time online and higher levels of online discrimination are associated with more problem behavior. This study highlights the need for clinicians, educational professionals and researchers to attend to race-related experiences online as well as in traditional environments. PMID:27134698

  14. The self-adjusting file (SAF) system: An evidence-based update.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Metzger, Zvi

    2014-09-01

    Current rotary file systems are effective tools. Nevertheless, they have two main shortcomings: They are unable to effectively clean and shape oval canals and depend too much on the irrigant to do the cleaning, which is an unrealistic illusionThey may jeopardize the long-term survival of the tooth via unnecessary, excessive removal of sound dentin and creation of micro-cracks in the remaining root dentin. The new Self-adjusting File (SAF) technology uses a hollow, compressible NiTi file, with no central metal core, through which a continuous flow of irrigant is provided throughout the procedure. The SAF technology allows for effective cleaning of all root canals including oval canals, thus allowing for the effective disinfection and obturation of all canal morphologies. This technology uses a new concept of cleaning and shaping in which a uniform layer of dentin is removed from around the entire perimeter of the root canal, thus avoiding unnecessary excessive removal of sound dentin. Furthermore, the mode of action used by this file system does not apply the machining of all root canals to a circular bore, as do all other rotary file systems, and does not cause micro-cracks in the remaining root dentin. The new SAF technology allows for a new concept in cleaning and shaping root canals: Minimally Invasive 3D Endodontics.

  15. A Novel Risk Score to the Prediction of 10-year Risk for Coronary Artery Disease Among the Elderly in Beijing Based on Competing Risk Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Long; Tang, Zhe; Li, Xia; Luo, Yanxia; Guo, Jin; Li, Haibin; Liu, Xiangtong; Tao, Lixin; Yan, Aoshuang; Guo, Xiuhua

    2016-03-01

    The study aimed to construct a risk prediction model for coronary artery disease (CAD) based on competing risk model among the elderly in Beijing and develop a user-friendly CAD risk score tool. We used competing risk model to evaluate the risk of developing a first CAD event. On the basis of the risk factors that were included in the competing risk model, we constructed the CAD risk prediction model with Cox proportional hazard model. Time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and time-dependent area under the ROC curve (AUC) were used to evaluate the discrimination ability of the both methods. Calibration plots were applied to assess the calibration ability and adjusted for the competing risk of non-CAD death. Net reclassification index (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) were applied to quantify the improvement contributed by the new risk factors. Internal validation of predictive accuracy was performed using 1000 times of bootstrap re-sampling. Of the 1775 participants without CAD at baseline, 473 incident cases of CAD were documented for a 20-year follow-up. Time-dependent AUCs for men and women at t = 10 years were 0.841 [95% confidence interval (95% CI): 0.806-0.877], 0.804 (95% CI: 0.768-0.839) in Fine and Gray model, 0.784 (95% CI: 0.738-0.830), 0.733 (95% CI: 0.692-0.775) in Cox proportional hazard model. The competing risk model was significantly superior to Cox proportional hazard model on discrimination and calibration. The cut-off values of the risk score that marked the difference between low-risk and high-risk patients were 34 points for men and 30 points for women, which have good sensitivity and specificity. A sex-specific multivariable risk factor algorithm-based competing risk model has been developed on the basis of an elderly Chinese cohort, which could be applied to predict an individual's risk and provide a useful guide to identify the groups at a high risk for CAD among the Chinese adults over 55

  16. A Novel Risk Score to the Prediction of 10-year Risk for Coronary Artery Disease Among the Elderly in Beijing Based on Competing Risk Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Long; Tang, Zhe; Li, Xia; Luo, Yanxia; Guo, Jin; Li, Haibin; Liu, Xiangtong; Tao, Lixin; Yan, Aoshuang; Guo, Xiuhua

    2016-01-01

    Abstract The study aimed to construct a risk prediction model for coronary artery disease (CAD) based on competing risk model among the elderly in Beijing and develop a user-friendly CAD risk score tool. We used competing risk model to evaluate the risk of developing a first CAD event. On the basis of the risk factors that were included in the competing risk model, we constructed the CAD risk prediction model with Cox proportional hazard model. Time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and time-dependent area under the ROC curve (AUC) were used to evaluate the discrimination ability of the both methods. Calibration plots were applied to assess the calibration ability and adjusted for the competing risk of non-CAD death. Net reclassification index (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) were applied to quantify the improvement contributed by the new risk factors. Internal validation of predictive accuracy was performed using 1000 times of bootstrap re-sampling. Of the 1775 participants without CAD at baseline, 473 incident cases of CAD were documented for a 20-year follow-up. Time-dependent AUCs for men and women at t = 10 years were 0.841 [95% confidence interval (95% CI): 0.806–0.877], 0.804 (95% CI: 0.768–0.839) in Fine and Gray model, 0.784 (95% CI: 0.738–0.830), 0.733 (95% CI: 0.692–0.775) in Cox proportional hazard model. The competing risk model was significantly superior to Cox proportional hazard model on discrimination and calibration. The cut-off values of the risk score that marked the difference between low-risk and high-risk patients were 34 points for men and 30 points for women, which have good sensitivity and specificity. A sex-specific multivariable risk factor algorithm-based competing risk model has been developed on the basis of an elderly Chinese cohort, which could be applied to predict an individual's risk and provide a useful guide to identify the groups at a high risk for CAD among the Chinese

  17. The Effect of Family Communication Patterns on Adopted Adolescent Adjustment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rueter, Martha A.; Koerner, Ascan F.

    2008-01-01

    Adoption and family communication both affect adolescent adjustment. We proposed that adoption status and family communication interact such that adopted adolescents in families with certain communication patterns are at greater risk for adjustment problems. We tested this hypothesis using a community-based sample of 384 adoptive and 208…

  18. Model-Based Mitigation of Availability Risks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zambon, Emmanuele; Bolzoni, D.; Etalle, Sandro; Salvato, Marco

    2007-01-01

    The assessment and mitigation of risks related to the availability of the IT infrastructure is becoming increasingly important in modern organizations. Unfortunately, present standards for Risk Assessment and Mitigation show limitations when evaluating and mitigating availability risks. This is due

  19. Unbalanced Baseline in School-Based Interventions to Prevent Obesity: Adjustment Can Lead to Bias - a Systematic Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rosely Sichieri

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Background/Aims: Cluster designs favor unbalanced baseline measures. The aim of the present study was to determine the frequency of unbalanced baseline BMI on school-based randomized controlled trials (RCT aimed at obesity reduction and to evaluate the analysis strategies. We hypothesized that the adjustment of unbalanced baseline measures may explain the great discrepancy among studies. Methods: The source of data was the Medline database content from January 1995 until May 2012. Our search strategy combined key words related to school-based interventions with such related to weight and was not limited by language. The participants' ages were restricted to 6-18 years. Results: We identified 146 school-based studies on obesity prevention (or overweight or excessive weight change. Of the 146 studies, 36 were retained for the analysis after excluding reviews, feasibility studies, other outcomes, and repeated publications. 13 (35% of the reviewed studies had statistically significant (p Conclusion: Adjustment for the baseline BMI is frequently done in cluster randomized studies, and there is no standardization for this procedure. Thus, procedures that disentangle the effects of group, time and changes in time, such as mixed effects models, should be used as standard methods in school-based studies on the prevention of weight gain.

  20. Effects of parental depressive symptoms on child adjustment moderated by HPA: Within- and between-family risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laurent, Heidemarie K.; Leve, Leslie D.; Neiderhiser, Jenae M.; Natsuaki, Misaki N.; Shaw, Daniel S.; Fisher, Philip A.; Marceau, Kristine; Harold, Gordon T.; Reiss, David

    2012-01-01

    Child hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) activity was investigated as a moderator of parental depressive symptom effects on child behavior in an adoption sample ( n =210 families). Adoptive parents’ depressive symptoms and child internalizing and externalizing were assessed at 18, 27, and 54 months, and child morning and evening HPA activity measured through salivary cortisol at 54 months. Children’s daily cortisol levels and day-to-day variability were tested as moderators of longitudinal associations between parent and child symptoms at within- and between-family levels. Mothers’ symptoms related directly to child internalizing, but child evening cortisol moderated effects of fathers’ symptoms on internalizing, and of both parents’ symptoms on externalizing. Different paths of within-family risk dynamics vs. between-family risk synergy were found for internalizing vs. externalizing outcomes. PMID:23013523

  1. Calibration and adjustment of center of mass(COM) based on EKF during in-flight phase

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2009-01-01

    The electrostatic accelerometer,assembled on gravity satellite,serves to measure all non-gravitational accelerations caused by atmosphere drag or solar radiation pressure,etc.The proof-mass center of the accelerometer needs to be precisely positioned at the center of gravity satellite,otherwise,the offset between them will bring measurement disturbance due to angular acceleration of satellite and gradient.Because of installation and measurement errors on the ground,fuel consumption during the in-flight phase and other adverse factors,the offset between the proof-mass center and the satellite center of mass is usually large enough to affect the measurement accuracy of the accelerometer,even beyond its range.Therefore,the offset needs to be measured or estimated,and then be controlled within the measurement requirement of the accelerometer by the center of mass(COM) adjustment mechanism during the life of the satellite.The estimation algorithm based on EKF,which uses the measurement of accelerometer,gyro and magnetometer,is put forward to estimate the offset,and the COM adjustment mechanism then adjusts the satellite center of mass in order to make the offset meet the requirement.With the special configuration layout,the COM adjustment mechanism driven by the stepper motors can separately regulate X,Y and Z axes.The associated simulation shows that the offset can be con-trolled better than 0.03 mm for all the axes with the method mentioned above.

  2. Surgeon length of service and risk-adjusted outcomes: linked observational analysis of the UK National Adult Cardiac Surgery Audit Registry and General Medical Council Register.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hickey, Graeme L; Grant, Stuart W; Freemantle, Nick; Cunningham, David; Munsch, Christopher M; Livesey, Steven A; Roxburgh, James; Buchan, Iain; Bridgewater, Ben

    2014-09-01

    To explore the relationship between in-hospital mortality following adult cardiac surgery and the time since primary clinical qualification for the responsible consultant cardiac surgeon (a proxy for experience). Retrospective analysis of prospectively collected national registry data over a 10-year period using mixed-effects multiple logistic regression modelling. Surgeon experience was defined as the time between the date of surgery and award of primary clinical qualification. UK National Health Service hospitals performing cardiac surgery between January 2003 and December 2012. All patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafts and/or valve surgery under the care of a consultant cardiac surgeon. All-cause in-hospital mortality. A total of 292,973 operations performed by 273 consultant surgeons (with lengths of service from 11.2 to 42.0 years) were included. Crude mortality increased approximately linearly until 33 years service, before decreasing. After adjusting for case-mix and year of surgery, there remained a statistically significant (p=0.002) association between length of service and in-hospital mortality (odds ratio 1.013; 95% CI 1.005-1.021 for each year of 'experience'). Consultant cardiac surgeons take on increasingly complex surgery as they gain experience. With this progression, the incidence of adverse outcomes is expected to increase, as is demonstrated in this study. After adjusting for case-mix using the EuroSCORE, we observed an increased risk of mortality in patients operated on by longer serving surgeons. This finding may reflect under-adjustment for risk, unmeasured confounding or a real association. Further research into outcomes over the time course of surgeon's careers is required. © The Royal Society of Medicine.

  3. Benchmarking Judgmentally Adjusted Forecasts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans); L.P. de Bruijn (Bert)

    2017-01-01

    textabstractMany publicly available macroeconomic forecasts are judgmentally adjusted model-based forecasts. In practice, usually only a single final forecast is available, and not the underlying econometric model, nor are the size and reason for adjustment known. Hence, the relative weights given

  4. Benchmarking judgmentally adjusted forecasts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans); L.P. de Bruijn (Bert)

    2015-01-01

    markdownabstractMany publicly available macroeconomic forecasts are judgmentally-adjusted model-based forecasts. In practice usually only a single final forecast is available, and not the underlying econometric model, nor are the size and reason for adjustment known. Hence, the relative weights

  5. Benchmarking judgmentally adjusted forecasts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans); L.P. de Bruijn (Bert)

    2015-01-01

    markdownabstractMany publicly available macroeconomic forecasts are judgmentally-adjusted model-based forecasts. In practice usually only a single final forecast is available, and not the underlying econometric model, nor are the size and reason for adjustment known. Hence, the relative weights give

  6. Effect of Laparoscopic Adjustable Gastric Banding on Metabolic Syndrome and Its Risk Factors in Morbidly Obese Adolescents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rushika Conroy

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available We examined the effect of laparoscopic adjustable gastric banding (LAGB on weight loss, inflammatory markers, and components of the Metabolic Syndrome (MeS in morbidly obese adolescents and determined if those with MeS lose less weight post-LAGB than those without. Data from 14–18 yr adolescents were obtained at baseline, 6 and 12 months following LAGB. Significant weight loss and improvements in MeS components were observed 6 months and one year following LAGB. The incidence of MeS declined 56.8% after 6 months and 69.6% after 12 months. There was no significant difference in amount of weight lost post-LAGB between those with and without MeS at either timepoint. Correlations between change in weight parameters and components of MeS in those with and without MeS at baseline were examined and found to vary by diagnostic category. LAGB is effective for short-term improvement in weight, inflammatory markers, and components of MeS in morbidly obese adolescents.

  7. Regression coefficient-based scoring system should be used to assign weights to the risk index.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mehta, Hemalkumar B; Mehta, Vinay; Girman, Cynthia J; Adhikari, Deepak; Johnson, Michael L

    2016-11-01

    Some previously developed risk scores contained a mathematical error in their construction: risk ratios were added to derive weights to construct a summary risk score. This study demonstrates the mathematical error and derived different versions of the Charlson comorbidity score (CCS) using regression coefficient-based and risk ratio-based scoring systems to further demonstrate the effects of incorrect weighting on performance in predicting mortality. This retrospective cohort study included elderly people from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink. Cox proportional hazards regression models were constructed for time to 1-year mortality. Weights were assigned to 17 comorbidities using regression coefficient-based and risk ratio-based scoring systems. Different versions of CCS were compared using Akaike information criteria (AIC), McFadden's adjusted R(2), and net reclassification improvement (NRI). Regression coefficient-based models (Beta, Beta10/integer, Beta/Schneeweiss, Beta/Sullivan) had lower AIC and higher R(2) compared to risk ratio-based models (HR/Charlson, HR/Johnson). Regression coefficient-based CCS reclassified more number of people into the correct strata (NRI range, 9.02-10.04) compared to risk ratio-based CCS (NRI range, 8.14-8.22). Previously developed risk scores contained an error in their construction adding ratios instead of multiplying them. Furthermore, as demonstrated here, adding ratios fail to even work adequately from a practical standpoint. CCS derived using regression coefficients performed slightly better than in fitting the data compared to risk ratio-based scoring systems. Researchers should use a regression coefficient-based scoring system to develop a risk index, which is theoretically correct. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. LC Filter Design for Wide Band Gap Device Based Adjustable Speed Drives

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vadstrup, Casper; Wang, Xiongfei; Blaabjerg, Frede

    2014-01-01

    the LC filter with a higher cut off frequency and without damping resistors. The selection of inductance and capacitance is chosen based on capacitor voltage ripple and current ripple. The filter adds a base load to the inverter, which increases the inverter losses. It is shown how the modulation index...

  9. 75 FR 10973 - Hazardous Materials: Risk-Based Adjustment of Transportation Security Plan Requirements

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-03-09

    ... Any quantity of Organic None. peroxide, Type B, liquid peroxide, Type B, liquid or solid, temperature... or suspensions or gels in a large bulk quantity. 5.2 Any quantity of Organic peroxide, Type B, liquid... materials; 2.3 poison gases; 4.3 dangerous when wet material; 5.2 Type B organic peroxides, liquid or...

  10. Improving depth resolution of diffuse optical tomography with an exponential adjustment method based on maximum singular value of layered sensitivity

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Haijing Niu; Ping Guo; Xiaodong Song; Tianzi Jiang

    2008-01-01

    The sensitivity of diffuse optical tomography (DOT) imaging exponentially decreases with the increase of photon penetration depth, which leads to a poor depth resolution for DOT. In this letter, an exponential adjustment method (EAM) based on maximum singular value of layered sensitivity is proposed. Optimal depth resolution can be achieved by compensating the reduced sensitivity in the deep medium. Simulations are performed using a semi-infinite model and the simulation results show that the EAM method can substantially improve the depth resolution of deeply embedded objects in the medium. Consequently, the image quality and the reconstruction accuracy for these objects have been largely improved.

  11. Directional Variance Adjustment: Bias Reduction in Covariance Matrices Based on Factor Analysis with an Application to Portfolio Optimization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartz, Daniel; Hatrick, Kerr; Hesse, Christian W.; Müller, Klaus-Robert; Lemm, Steven

    2013-01-01

    Robust and reliable covariance estimates play a decisive role in financial and many other applications. An important class of estimators is based on factor models. Here, we show by extensive Monte Carlo simulations that covariance matrices derived from the statistical Factor Analysis model exhibit a systematic error, which is similar to the well-known systematic error of the spectrum of the sample covariance matrix. Moreover, we introduce the Directional Variance Adjustment (DVA) algorithm, which diminishes the systematic error. In a thorough empirical study for the US, European, and Hong Kong stock market we show that our proposed method leads to improved portfolio allocation. PMID:23844016

  12. Directional variance adjustment: bias reduction in covariance matrices based on factor analysis with an application to portfolio optimization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartz, Daniel; Hatrick, Kerr; Hesse, Christian W; Müller, Klaus-Robert; Lemm, Steven

    2013-01-01

    Robust and reliable covariance estimates play a decisive role in financial and many other applications. An important class of estimators is based on factor models. Here, we show by extensive Monte Carlo simulations that covariance matrices derived from the statistical Factor Analysis model exhibit a systematic error, which is similar to the well-known systematic error of the spectrum of the sample covariance matrix. Moreover, we introduce the Directional Variance Adjustment (DVA) algorithm, which diminishes the systematic error. In a thorough empirical study for the US, European, and Hong Kong stock market we show that our proposed method leads to improved portfolio allocation.

  13. Femtosecond laser-induced periodic structure adjustments based on electron dynamics control: from subwavelength ripples to double-grating structures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Xuesong; Jiang, Lan; Li, Xin; Wang, Sumei; Yuan, Yanping; Lu, Yongfeng

    2013-10-01

    This study proposes a method for adjusting subwavelength ripple periods and the corresponding double-grating structures formed on fused silica by designing femtosecond laser pulse trains based on localized transient electron density control. Four near-constant period ranges of 190-490 nm of ripples perpendicular to the polarization are obtained by designing pulse trains to excite and modulate the surface plasmon waves. In the period range of 350-490 nm, the double-grating structure is fabricated in one step, which is probably attributable to the grating-assisted enhanced energy deposition and subsequent thermal effects.

  14. Research on Gear-box Fault Diagnosis Method Based on Adjusting-learning-rate PSO Neural Network

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    PAN Hong-xia; MA Qing-feng

    2006-01-01

    Based on the research of Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) learning rate, two learning rates are changed linearly with velocity-formula evolving in order to adjust the proportion of social part and cognitional part; then the methods are applied to BP neural network training, the convergence rate is heavily accelerated and locally optional solution is avoided. According to actual data of two levels compound-box in vibration lab, signals are analyzed and their characteristic values are abstracted. By applying the trained BP neural networks to compound-box fault diagnosis, it is indicated that the methods are sound effective.

  15. Directional variance adjustment: bias reduction in covariance matrices based on factor analysis with an application to portfolio optimization.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Bartz

    Full Text Available Robust and reliable covariance estimates play a decisive role in financial and many other applications. An important class of estimators is based on factor models. Here, we show by extensive Monte Carlo simulations that covariance matrices derived from the statistical Factor Analysis model exhibit a systematic error, which is similar to the well-known systematic error of the spectrum of the sample covariance matrix. Moreover, we introduce the Directional Variance Adjustment (DVA algorithm, which diminishes the systematic error. In a thorough empirical study for the US, European, and Hong Kong stock market we show that our proposed method leads to improved portfolio allocation.

  16. Antipsychotics and risk of first-time hospitalization for myocardial infarction: a population-based case-control study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nakagawa, S; Pedersen, Lene; Olsen, Mette Lena

    2006-01-01

    . Objective. To examine risk of hospitalization for myocardial infarction (MI) amongst users of antipsychotics compared with non-users. Design and subjects. A population-based case-control study using data from hospital discharge registries in the counties of North Jutland, Viborg and Aarhus, Denmark......, and the Danish Civil Registration System. We identified 21 377 cases of first-time hospitalization for MI and 106 885 sex- and age-matched non-MI population controls in the period 1992-2004. All prescriptions for antipsychotics filled prior to the date of admission for MI were retrieved from population......-based prescription databases. We used conditional logistic regression to adjust for a wide range of covariates. Results. Current users of atypical [adjusted relative risk: 0.98, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.88-1.09] and typical antipsychotics (adjusted relative risk: 0.99, 95% CI: 0.96-1.03) had no increased...

  17. Allocation of risk capital based on iso-entropic coherent risk measure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chengli Zheng

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The potential of diversified portfolio leads to the risk capital allocation problem. There are many kinds of methods or rules to allocate risk capital.  However, they have flaws, such as non-continuity, unfairness. In order to get a better method, we propose a new risk measure to be the base of risk capital allocation rule. Design/methodology/approach: We proposed two kinds of allocation methods: one is marginal risk contribution based on iso-entropic coherent risk measure(IE, the other one is to combine the minimal excess allocation(EBA principle and IE into risk capital allocation. The iso-entropic coherent risk measure has many advantages over others; it is continuous and more powerful in distinguishing risks, consistent with higher-order stochastic dominances than other risk measures. And EBA is consistent with the amount of risk, which means fairness for risk capital allocation. Findings: Through cases, simulations and empirical application, it shows that these two allocation rules satisfy some good properties, can be more efficient, more precise and fairer. And the EBA based on IE may be the better one. Research limitations/implications: However, there are some problems still open. One is how to treat the negative value of allocation. Second is that the consistence between the allocated risk capital and the amount of the risk needs to be studied further. Originality/value: A good risk measure is very important for risk capital allocation. We proposed two methods to deal with risk capital allocation based on a new coherent risk measure called iso-entropic risk measure, which is smooth and consistent with higher-order stochastic dominance and has higher resolution of risk. It shows that the risk capital allocation rules based on iso-entropic risk measure are better than the other rules.

  18. Dynamic gauge adjustment of high-resolution X-band radar data for convective rain storms: Model-based evaluation against measured combined sewer overflow

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Borup, Morten; Grum, Morten; Linde, Jens Jørgen

    2016-01-01

    , well defined, 64 ha urban catchment, for nine overflow generating rain events. The dynamically adjusted radar data perform best when the aggregation period is as small as 10–20 min, in which case it performs much better than static adjusted radar data and data from rain gauges situated 2–3 km away.......Numerous studies have shown that radar rainfall estimates need to be adjusted against rain gauge measurements in order to be useful for hydrological modelling. In the current study we investigate if adjustment can improve radar rainfall estimates to the point where they can be used for modelling...... overflows from urban drainage systems, and we furthermore investigate the importance of the aggregation period of the adjustment scheme. This is done by continuously adjusting X-band radar data based on the previous 5–30 min of rain data recorded by multiple rain gauges and propagating the rainfall...

  19. A risk-based microbiological criterion that uses the relative risk as the critical limit

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Jens Kirk; Nørrung, Birgit; da Costa Alves Machado, Simone

    2015-01-01

    criteria. The approach requires the availability of a quantitative microbiological risk assessment model to get risk estimates for food products from sampled food lots. By relating these food lot risk estimates to the mean risk estimate associated to a representative baseline data set, a relative risk......A risk-based microbiological criterion is described, that is based on the relative risk associated to the analytical result of a number of samples taken from a food lot. The acceptable limit is a specific level of risk and not a specific number of microorganisms, as in other microbiological...... estimate can be obtained. This relative risk estimate then can be compared with a critical value, defined by the criterion. This microbiological criterion based on a relative risk limit is particularly useful when quantitative enumeration data are available and when the prevalence of the microorganism...

  20. Q-Learning-Based Adjustable Fixed-Phase Quantum Grover Search Algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Ying; Shi, Wensha; Wang, Yijun; Hu, Jiankun

    2017-02-01

    We demonstrate that the rotation phase can be suitably chosen to increase the efficiency of the phase-based quantum search algorithm, leading to a dynamic balance between iterations and success probabilities of the fixed-phase quantum Grover search algorithm with Q-learning for a given number of solutions. In this search algorithm, the proposed Q-learning algorithm, which is a model-free reinforcement learning strategy in essence, is used for performing a matching algorithm based on the fraction of marked items λ and the rotation phase α. After establishing the policy function α = π(λ), we complete the fixed-phase Grover algorithm, where the phase parameter is selected via the learned policy. Simulation results show that the Q-learning-based Grover search algorithm (QLGA) enables fewer iterations and gives birth to higher success probabilities. Compared with the conventional Grover algorithms, it avoids the optimal local situations, thereby enabling success probabilities to approach one.

  1. Users Guide to SAMINT: A Code for Nuclear Data Adjustment with SAMMY Based on Integral Experiments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sobes, Vladimir [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Leal, Luiz C. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Arbanas, Goran [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    2014-10-01

    The purpose of this project is to couple differential and integral data evaluation in a continuous-energy framework. More specifically, the goal is to use the Generalized Linear Least Squares methodology employed in TSURFER to update the parameters of a resolved resonance region evaluation directly. Recognizing that the GLLS methodology in TSURFER is identical to the mathematical description of the simple Bayesian updating carried out in SAMMY, the computer code SAMINT was created to help use the mathematical machinery of SAMMY to update resolved resonance parameters based on integral data. Minimal modifications of SAMMY are required when used with SAMINT to make resonance parameter updates based on integral experimental data.

  2. A bidirection-adjustable ionic current rectification system based on a biconical micro-channel.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Fengxia; Chen, Cheng; Xie, Xia; Chen, Lisha; Li, Meixian; Zhu, Zhiwei

    2015-10-25

    We developed a simple, cheap and bidirectional ionic current rectification system based on the integration of a biconical micro-channel, working electrode and reference electrode. This system may have potential and realistic future value for studying two-way ionic transport in the cell membrane.

  3. Performance Evaluation of Electronic Inductor-Based Adjustable Speed Drives with Respect to Line Current Interharmonics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Soltani, Hamid; Davari, Pooya; Zare, Firuz;

    2017-01-01

    attractive due to its improved harmonic performance compared to a conventional ASD. In this digest, the input currents of the EI-based ASD are investigated and compared with the conventional ASDs with respect to interharmonics, which is an emerging power quality topic. First, the main causes...

  4. Enhanced TDMA Based Anti-Collision Algorithm with a Dynamic Frame Size Adjustment Strategy for Mobile RFID Readers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shin, Kwang Cheol; Park, Seung Bo; Jo, Geun Sik

    2009-01-01

    In the fields of production, manufacturing and supply chain management, Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) is regarded as one of the most important technologies. Nowadays, Mobile RFID, which is often installed in carts or forklift trucks, is increasingly being applied to the search for and checkout of items in warehouses, supermarkets, libraries and other industrial fields. In using Mobile RFID, since the readers are continuously moving, they can interfere with each other when they attempt to read the tags. In this study, we suggest a Time Division Multiple Access (TDMA) based anti-collision algorithm for Mobile RFID readers. Our algorithm automatically adjusts the frame size of each reader without using manual parameters by adopting the dynamic frame size adjustment strategy when collisions occur at a reader. Through experiments on a simulated environment for Mobile RFID readers, we show that the proposed method improves the number of successful transmissions by about 228% on average, compared with Colorwave, a representative TDMA based anti-collision algorithm. PMID:22399942

  5. Enhanced TDMA Based Anti-Collision Algorithm with a Dynamic Frame Size Adjustment Strategy for Mobile RFID Readers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kwang Cheol Shin

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available In the fields of production, manufacturing and supply chain management, Radio Frequency Identification (RFID is regarded as one of the most important technologies. Nowadays, Mobile RFID, which is often installed in carts or forklift trucks, is increasingly being applied to the search for and checkout of items in warehouses, supermarkets, libraries and other industrial fields. In using Mobile RFID, since the readers are continuously moving, they can interfere with each other when they attempt to read the tags. In this study, we suggest a Time Division Multiple Access (TDMA based anti-collision algorithm for Mobile RFID readers. Our algorithm automatically adjusts the frame size of each reader without using manual parameters by adopting the dynamic frame size adjustment strategy when collisions occur at a reader. Through experiments on a simulated environment for Mobile RFID readers, we show that the proposed method improves the number of successful transmissions by about 228% on average, compared with Colorwave, a representative TDMA based anti-collision algorithm.

  6. Comparison of the performance of the CMS Hierarchical Condition Category (CMS-HCC risk adjuster with the charlson and elixhauser comorbidity measures in predicting mortality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li Pengxiang

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS has implemented the CMS-Hierarchical Condition Category (CMS-HCC model to risk adjust Medicare capitation payments. This study intends to assess the performance of the CMS-HCC risk adjustment method and to compare it to the Charlson and Elixhauser comorbidity measures in predicting in-hospital and six-month mortality in Medicare beneficiaries. Methods The study used the 2005-2006 Chronic Condition Data Warehouse (CCW 5% Medicare files. The primary study sample included all community-dwelling fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries with a hospital admission between January 1st, 2006 and June 30th, 2006. Additionally, four disease-specific samples consisting of subgroups of patients with principal diagnoses of congestive heart failure (CHF, stroke, diabetes mellitus (DM, and acute myocardial infarction (AMI were also selected. Four analytic files were generated for each sample by extracting inpatient and/or outpatient claims for each patient. Logistic regressions were used to compare the methods. Model performance was assessed using the c-statistic, the Akaike's information criterion (AIC, the Bayesian information criterion (BIC and their 95% confidence intervals estimated using bootstrapping. Results The CMS-HCC had statistically significant higher c-statistic and lower AIC and BIC values than the Charlson and Elixhauser methods in predicting in-hospital and six-month mortality across all samples in analytic files that included claims from the index hospitalization. Exclusion of claims for the index hospitalization generally led to drops in model performance across all methods with the highest drops for the CMS-HCC method. However, the CMS-HCC still performed as well or better than the other two methods. Conclusions The CMS-HCC method demonstrated better performance relative to the Charlson and Elixhauser methods in predicting in-hospital and six-month mortality. The CMS

  7. Water risk assessment in China based on the improved Water Risk Filter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong, G.; Yaqin, Q.; Qiong, L.; Cunwen, N.; Na, W.; Jiajia, L.; Jongde, G.; Na, Z.; Xiangyi, D.

    2014-09-01

    Finding an effective way to deal with the water crisis and the relationship between water and development is a major issue for all levels of government and different economic sectors across the world. Scientific understanding of water risk is the basis for achieving a scientific relationship between water and development, and water risk assessment is currently an important research focus. To effectively deal with the global water crisis, the World Wide Fund for Nature and German Investment and Development Company Limited proposed the concept of water risk and released an online Water Risk Filter in March 2012, which has been applied to at least 85 countries. To comprehensively and accurately reflect the situation of water risk in China, this study adjusts the water risk assessment indicators in the Water Risk Filter, taking the actual situation in China and the difficulty of obtaining the information about the indicators into account, and proposes an index system for water risk evaluation for China which consists of physical risk, regulatory risk and reputational risk. The improved Water Risk Filter is further used to assess the sources and causes of the water risks in 10 first-class and seven second-class water resource areas (WRAs). The results indicate that the water risk for the whole country is generally medium and low, while those for different regions in the country vary greatly, and those for southern regions are generally lower than those for northern regions. Government regulatory and policy implementation as well as media supervision in northern regions should be strengthened to reduce the water risk. The research results may provide decision support and references for both governments and industrial enterprises in identifying water risks, formulating prevention and control policies, and improving water resources management in China.

  8. Army Physical Therapy Productivity According to the Performance Based Adjustment Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-05-02

    Therapy Association ( APTA ) does not have guidelines for determining appropriate productivity standards. According to the APTA , "productivity...standards are generally determined by facilities, based on the specifics of their population, staffing mix, etc." ( APTA , 2007). Hence, the PBAM...benchmarking methodology is at odds with the APTA’s view of how to establish productivity standards. Despite the lack of APTA productivity guidance, the

  9. Acculturation and adjustment in Latino adolescents: how cultural risk factors and assets influence multiple domains of adolescent mental health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smokowski, Paul; Buchanan, Rachel L; Bacallao, Martica L

    2009-07-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine the relationships among risk factors, cultural assets, and Latino adolescent mental health outcomes. We extend past research by using a longitudinal design and evaluating direct and moderated acculturation effects across a range of internalizing, externalizing, and academic engagement outcomes. The sample consisted of 281 Latino/a youths and one of their parents in metropolitan, small town, and rural areas within North Carolina and Arizona. The length of time the adolescent was in the U.S. was positively related to humiliation, aggression, and school bonding. Adolescent U.S. cultural involvement and parent culture of origin involvement were not significantly related to adolescent mental health or school bonding. Parent U.S. involvement had an inverse association with adolescent social problems, aggression, and anxiety. Adolescent culture of origin involvement was positively related to adolescent self-esteem 1 year later. Inverse relationships were found for the link between adolescent culture of origin involvement and hopelessness, social problems, and aggression 1 year later. Implications for prevention programming and policy development are discussed.

  10. Team Performance and Risk-Adjusted Health Outcomes in the Program of All-Inclusive Care for the Elderly (PACE)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mukamel, Dana B.; Temkin-Greener, Helena; Delavan, Rachel; Peterson, Derick R.; Gross, Diane; Kunitz, Stephen; Williams, T. Franklin

    2006-01-01

    Purpose: The Program of All-Inclusive Care for the Elderly (PACE) is a community-based program providing primary, acute, and long-term care to frail elderly individuals. A central component of the PACE model is the interdisciplinary care team, which includes both professionals and non-professionals. The purpose of this study was to examine the…

  11. Salary adjustments

    CERN Multimedia

    HR Department

    2008-01-01

    In accordance with decisions taken by the Finance Committee and Council in December 2007, salaries are adjusted with effect from 1 January 2008. Scale of basic salaries and scale of stipends paid to fellows (Annex R A 5 and R A 6 respectively): increased by 0.71% with effect from 1 January 2008. As a result of the stability of the Geneva consumer price index, the following elements do not increase: a)\tFamily Allowance, Child Allowance and Infant Allowance (Annex R A 3); b)\tReimbursement of education fees: maximum amounts of reimbursement (Annex R A 4.01) for the academic year 2007/2008. Related adjustments will be applied, wherever applicable, to Paid Associates and Students. As in the past, the actual percentage increase of each salary position may vary, due to the application of a constant step value and rounding effects. Human Resources Department Tel. 73566

  12. Salary adjustments

    CERN Multimedia

    HR Department

    2008-01-01

    In accordance with decisions taken by the Finance Committee and Council in December 2007, salaries are adjusted with effect from 1 January 2008. Scale of basic salaries and scale of stipends paid to fellows (Annex R A 5 and R A 6 respectively): increased by 0.71% with effect from 1 January 2008. As a result of the stability of the Geneva consumer price index, following elements do not increase: a) Family Allowance, Child Allowance and Infant Allowance (Annex R A 3). b) Reimbursement of education fees: maximum amounts of reimbursement (Annex R A 4.01) for the academic year 2007/2008. Related adjustments will be implemented, wherever applicable, to Paid Associates and Students. As in the past, the actual percentage increase of each salary position may vary, due to the application of a constant step value and the rounding effects. Human Resources Department Tel. 73566

  13. Burden of Six Healthcare-Associated Infections on European Population Health: Estimating Incidence-Based Disability-Adjusted Life Years through a Population Prevalence-Based Modelling Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alessandro Cassini

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Estimating the burden of healthcare-associated infections (HAIs compared to other communicable diseases is an ongoing challenge given the need for good quality data on the incidence of these infections and the involved comorbidities. Based on the methodology of the Burden of Communicable Diseases in Europe (BCoDE project and 2011-2012 data from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC point prevalence survey (PPS of HAIs and antimicrobial use in European acute care hospitals, we estimated the burden of six common HAIs.The included HAIs were healthcare-associated pneumonia (HAP, healthcare-associated urinary tract infection (HA UTI, surgical site infection (SSI, healthcare-associated Clostridium difficile infection (HA CDI, healthcare-associated neonatal sepsis, and healthcare-associated primary bloodstream infection (HA primary BSI. The burden of these HAIs was measured in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs. Evidence relating to the disease progression pathway of each type of HAI was collected through systematic literature reviews, in order to estimate the risks attributable to HAIs. For each of the six HAIs, gender and age group prevalence from the ECDC PPS was converted into incidence rates by applying the Rhame and Sudderth formula. We adjusted for reduced life expectancy within the hospital population using three severity groups based on McCabe score data from the ECDC PPS. We estimated that 2,609,911 new cases of HAI occur every year in the European Union and European Economic Area (EU/EEA. The cumulative burden of the six HAIs was estimated at 501 DALYs per 100,000 general population each year in EU/EEA. HAP and HA primary BSI were associated with the highest burden and represented more than 60% of the total burden, with 169 and 145 DALYs per 100,000 total population, respectively. HA UTI, SSI, HA CDI, and HA primary BSI ranked as the third to sixth syndromes in terms of burden of disease. HAP and HA primary BSI were

  14. Dietary Reference Intakes for Zinc May Require Adjustment for Phytate Intake Based upon Model Predictions12

    OpenAIRE

    Hambidge, K Michael; Miller, Leland V.; Westcott, Jamie E.; Krebs, Nancy F

    2008-01-01

    The quantity of total dietary zinc (Zn) and phytate are the principal determinants of the quantity of absorbed Zn. Recent estimates of Dietary Reference Intakes (DRI) for Zn by the Institute of Medicine (IOM) were based on data from low-phytate or phytate-free diets. The objective of this project was to estimate the effects of increasing quantities of dietary phytate on these DRI. We used a trivariate model of the quantity of Zn absorbed as a function of dietary Zn and phytate with updated pa...

  15. The use of central laboratories and remote electronic data capture to risk-adjust therapy for pediatric acute lymphoblastic leukemia and neuroblastoma

    OpenAIRE

    Devidas, Meenakshi; London, Wendy B.; Anderson, James R.

    2010-01-01

    The Children’s Oncology Group (COG) is a National Cancer Institute sponsored cooperative clinical trials group with the primary mission of conducting pediatric cancer clinical trials. COG has complex risk classification systems that are used to deliver risk-stratified therapy for many pediatric cances, including clinical trials for Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia (ALL) and Neuroblastoma (NB). Classification of patients is based on biological, clinical, and genomic data obtained at initial diagno...

  16. Autonomous Parameter Adjustment for SSVEP-Based BCIs with a Novel BCI Wizard.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gembler, Felix; Stawicki, Piotr; Volosyak, Ivan

    2015-01-01

    Brain-Computer Interfaces (BCIs) transfer human brain activities into computer commands and enable a communication channel without requiring movement. Among other BCI approaches, steady-state visual evoked potential (SSVEP)-based BCIs have the potential to become accurate, assistive technologies for persons with severe disabilities. Those systems require customization of different kinds of parameters (e.g., stimulation frequencies). Calibration usually requires selecting predefined parameters by experienced/trained personnel, though in real-life scenarios an interface allowing people with no experience in programming to set up the BCI would be desirable. Another occurring problem regarding BCI performance is BCI illiteracy (also called BCI deficiency). Many articles reported that BCI control could not be achieved by a non-negligible number of users. In order to bypass those problems we developed a SSVEP-BCI wizard, a system that automatically determines user-dependent key-parameters to customize SSVEP-based BCI systems. This wizard was tested and evaluated with 61 healthy subjects. All subjects were asked to spell the phrase "RHINE WAAL UNIVERSITY" with a spelling application after key parameters were determined by the wizard. Results show that all subjects were able to control the spelling application. A mean (SD) accuracy of 97.14 (3.73)% was reached (all subjects reached an accuracy above 85% and 25 subjects even reached 100% accuracy).

  17. Study of dual wavelength composite output of solid state laser based on adjustment of resonator parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Lei; Nie, Jinsong; Wang, Xi; Hu, Yuze

    2016-10-01

    The 1064nm fundamental wave (FW) and the 532nm second harmonic wave (SHW) of Nd:YAG laser have been widely applied in many fields. In some military applications requiring interference in both visible and near-infrared spectrum range, the de-identification interference technology based on the dual wavelength composite output of FW and SHW offers an effective way of making the device or equipment miniaturized and low cost. In this paper, the application of 1064nm and 532nm dual-wavelength composite output technology in military electro-optical countermeasure is studied. A certain resonator configuration that can achieve composite laser output with high power, high beam quality and high repetition rate is proposed. Considering the thermal lens effect, the stability of this certain resonator is analyzed based on the theory of cavity transfer matrix. It shows that with the increase of thermal effect, the intracavity fundamental mode volume decreased, resulting the peak fluctuation of cavity stability parameter. To explore the impact the resonator parameters does to characteristics and output ratio of composite laser, the solid-state laser's dual-wavelength composite output models in both continuous and pulsed condition are established by theory of steady state equation and rate equation. Throughout theoretical simulation and analysis, the optimal KTP length and best FW transmissivity are obtained. The experiment is then carried out to verify the correctness of theoretical calculation result.

  18. Autonomous parameter adjustment for SSVEP-based BCIs with a novel BCI Wizard

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Felix eGembler

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Brain-computer interfaces (BCIs transfer human brain activities into computer commands and enable a communication channel without requiring movement.Among other BCI approaches, steady-state visual evoked potential (SSVEP-based BCIs have the potential to become accurate, assistive technologies for persons with severe disabilities.Those systems require customization of different kinds of parameters (e.g. stimulation frequencies. Calibration usually requires selecting predefined parameters by experienced/trained personnel, though in real-life scenarios an interface allowing people with no experience in programming to set up the BCI would be desirable. Another occurring problem regarding BCI performance is BCI illiteracy (also called BCI deficiency. Many articles reported that BCI control could not be achieved by a non-negligible number of users. In order to bypass those problems we developed a SSVEP-BCI wizard, a system that automatically determines user-dependent key-parameters to customize SSVEP-based BCI systems. This wizard was tested and evaluated with 61 healthy subjects. All subjects were asked to spell the phrase ``RHINE WAAL UNIVERSITY'' with a spelling application after key parameters were determined by the wizard. Results show that all subjects were able to control the spelling application. A mean (SD accuracy of 97.14 (3.73% was reached (all subjects reached an accuracy above 85% and 25 subjects even reached 100% accuracy.

  19. Adjustable Two-Tier Cache for IPTV Based on Segmented Streaming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kai-Chun Liang

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Internet protocol TV (IPTV is a promising Internet killer application, which integrates video, voice, and data onto a single IP network, and offers viewers an innovative set of choices and control over their TV content. To provide high-quality IPTV services, an effective strategy is based on caching. This work proposes a segment-based two-tier caching approach, which divides each video into multiple segments to be cached. This approach also partitions the cache space into two layers, where the first layer mainly caches to-be-played segments and the second layer saves possibly played segments. As the segment access becomes frequent, the proposed approach enlarges the first layer and reduces the second layer, and vice versa. Because requested segments may not be accessed frequently, this work further designs an admission control mechanism to determine whether an incoming segment should be cached or not. The cache architecture takes forward/stop playback into account and may replace the unused segments under the interrupted playback. Finally, we conduct comprehensive simulation experiments to evaluate the performance of the proposed approach. The results show that our approach can yield higher hit ratio than previous work under various environmental parameters.

  20. 12 CFR 652.70 - Risk-based capital level.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... risk-based capital level is the sum of the following amounts: (a) Credit and interest rate risk. The... 12 Banks and Banking 6 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Risk-based capital level. 652.70 Section 652.70 Banks and Banking FARM CREDIT ADMINISTRATION FARM CREDIT SYSTEM FEDERAL AGRICULTURAL...

  1. Malnutrition Increases With Obesity and Is a Stronger Independent Risk Factor for Postoperative Complications: A Propensity-Adjusted Analysis of Total Hip Arthroplasty Patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, Michael C; D'Ambrosia, Christopher; McLawhorn, Alexander S; Schairer, William W; Padgett, Douglas E; Cross, Michael B

    2016-11-01

    Obesity is frequently associated with complications after total hip arthroplasty (THA) and is often concomitant with malnutrition. The purpose of this study was to investigate the independent morbidity risk of malnutrition relative to obesity. The National Surgical Quality Improvement Program from 2005 to 2013 was queried for elective primary THA cases. Malnutrition was defined as albumin malnutrition with 30-day outcomes. A total of 40,653 THA cases were identified, of which 20,210 (49.7%) had preoperative albumin measurements. Propensity score adjustment successfully reduced potential selection bias, with P > .05 for differences between those with and without albumin data. Malnutrition incidence increased from 2.8% in obese I to 5.7% in obese III patients. With multivariable propensity-adjusted logistic regression, malnutrition was a more robust predictor than any obesity class for any postoperative complication(s) (odds ratio [OR] 1.61, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.25-2.08), major complications (OR 1.63, 95% CI 1.21-2.19), respiratory complications (OR 2.35, 95% CI 1.27-4.37), blood transfusions (OR 1.71, 95% CI 1.44-2.03), and extended length of stay (OR 1.35, 95% CI 1.14-1.59). Malnutrition incidence increased significantly from obese I to obese III patients and was a stronger and more consistent predictor than obesity of complications after THA. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Wavelet-Based Color Pathological Image Watermark through Dynamically Adjusting the Embedding Intensity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guoyan Liu

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a new dynamic and robust blind watermarking scheme for color pathological image based on discrete wavelet transform (DWT. The binary watermark image is preprocessed before embedding; firstly it is scrambled by Arnold cat map and then encrypted by pseudorandom sequence generated by robust chaotic map. The host image is divided into n×n blocks, and the encrypted watermark is embedded into the higher frequency domain of blue component. The mean and variance of the subbands are calculated, to dynamically modify the wavelet coefficient of a block according to the embedded 0 or 1, so as to generate the detection threshold. We research the relationship between embedding intensity and threshold and give the effective range of the threshold to extract the watermark. Experimental results show that the scheme can resist against common distortions, especially getting advantage over JPEG compression, additive noise, brightening, rotation, and cropping.

  3. Wavelet-based color pathological image watermark through dynamically adjusting the embedding intensity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Guoyan; Liu, Hongjun; Kadir, Abdurahman

    2012-01-01

    This paper proposes a new dynamic and robust blind watermarking scheme for color pathological image based on discrete wavelet transform (DWT). The binary watermark image is preprocessed before embedding; firstly it is scrambled by Arnold cat map and then encrypted by pseudorandom sequence generated by robust chaotic map. The host image is divided into n × n blocks, and the encrypted watermark is embedded into the higher frequency domain of blue component. The mean and variance of the subbands are calculated, to dynamically modify the wavelet coefficient of a block according to the embedded 0 or 1, so as to generate the detection threshold. We research the relationship between embedding intensity and threshold and give the effective range of the threshold to extract the watermark. Experimental results show that the scheme can resist against common distortions, especially getting advantage over JPEG compression, additive noise, brightening, rotation, and cropping.

  4. Tunable fluorescence enhancement based on bandgap-adjustable 3D Fe3O4 nanoparticles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Fei; Gao, Suning; Zhu, Lili; Liao, Fan; Yang, Lulu; Shao, Mingwang

    2016-06-01

    Great progress has been made in fluorescence-based detection utilizing solid state enhanced substrates in recent years. However, it is still difficult to achieve reliable substrates with tunable enhancement factors. The present work shows liquid fluorescence enhanced substrates consisting of suspensions of Fe3O4 nanoparticles (NPs), which can assemble 3D photonic crystal under the external magnetic field. The photonic bandgap induced by the equilibrium of attractive magnetic force and repulsive electrostatic force between adjacent Fe3O4 NPs is utilized to enhance fluorescence intensity of dye molecules (including R6G, RB, Cy5, DMTPS-DCV) in a reversible and controllable manner. The results show that a maximum of 12.3-fold fluorescence enhancement is realized in the 3D Fe3O4 NP substrates without the utilization of metal particles for PCs/DMTPS-DCV (1.0 × 10-7 M, water fraction (f w) = 90%).

  5. Characterization of the CALIBAN Critical Assembly Neutron Spectra using Several Adjustment Methods Based on Activation Foils Measurement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casoli, Pierre; Grégoire, Gilles; Rousseau, Guillaume; Jacquet, Xavier; Authier, Nicolas

    2016-02-01

    CALIBAN is a metallic critical assembly managed by the Criticality, Neutron Science and Measurement Department located on the French CEA Center of Valduc. The reactor is extensively used for benchmark experiments dedicated to the evaluation of nuclear data, for electronic hardening or to study the effect of the neutrons on various materials. Therefore CALIBAN irradiation characteristics and especially its central cavity neutron spectrum have to be very accurately evaluated. In order to strengthen our knowledge of this spectrum, several adjustment methods based on activation foils measurements are being studied for a few years in the laboratory. Firstly two codes included in the UMG package have been tested and compared: MAXED and GRAVEL. More recently, the CALIBAN cavity spectrum has been studied using CALMAR, a new adjustment tool currently under development at the CEA Center of Cadarache. The article will discuss and compare the results and the quality of spectrum rebuilding obtained with the UMG codes and with the CALMAR software, from a set of activation measurements carried out in the CALIBAN irradiation cavity.

  6. Characterization of the CALIBAN Critical Assembly Neutron Spectra using Several Adjustment Methods Based on Activation Foils Measurement

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Casoli Pierre

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available CALIBAN is a metallic critical assembly managed by the Criticality, Neutron Science and Measurement Department located on the French CEA Center of Valduc. The reactor is extensively used for benchmark experiments dedicated to the evaluation of nuclear data, for electronic hardening or to study the effect of the neutrons on various materials. Therefore CALIBAN irradiation characteristics and especially its central cavity neutron spectrum have to be very accurately evaluated. In order to strengthen our knowledge of this spectrum, several adjustment methods based on activation foils measurements are being studied for a few years in the laboratory. Firstly two codes included in the UMG package have been tested and compared: MAXED and GRAVEL. More recently, the CALIBAN cavity spectrum has been studied using CALMAR, a new adjustment tool currently under development at the CEA Center of Cadarache. The article will discuss and compare the results and the quality of spectrum rebuilding obtained with the UMG codes and with the CALMAR software, from a set of activation measurements carried out in the CALIBAN irradiation cavity.

  7. Capital Adjustment, Risk Control and Business Cycle%资本调整、风险控制与宏观经济周期

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    刘胤; 吴俊; 张宗益

    2011-01-01

    本文将经济周期、市场结构等外部宏观因素,以及贷款拨备、管理效率等微观银行特征引入研究框架,构建实证检验的联立方程模型,运用GMM方法,采用2004~2009年23家主要城市商业银行数据,从周期性特征的视角对其资本和风险调整的内生互动行为及其影响因素进行实证分析。结果显示,中国城市商业银行资本和风险调整行为之间存在非对称互动影响,其风险行为呈现明显的周期性;盈利能力、成本管理效率对城市商业银行提升资本水平作用有限;严格的资本监管、市场集中度的降低都有利于城市商业银行提升资本充足水平,但对其降低风险的作用有限。%The paper introduces macro-economic factors, such as business cycle and market structure, and bank's microcharacteristics, such as loan povisioning and management efficiency into the analysis framework, and establishes a simultaneous equations model. With the data of 23 major city commercial banks between 2004 and 2009, GMM is employed to empirically analyze the endogenous interaction relationship between capital adjustment and risk-taking adjustment and affecting factors from the perspective of cyclical characteristics. The results show that the association between changes in capital and risk is asymmetric; the risk-taking behaviors are cyclical; earnings power and cost management efficiency fail to show significant impact on capital increase; both strict capital regulation and the decrease of bank concentration have positive impact on capital adequacy, but their influence on reducing risk is limited.

  8. Continuity Adjustment for Control Charts for Attributes

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    L.K. Chan; T.K. Mak; B. Tao

    2003-01-01

    A unified approach is proposed for making a continuity adjustment on some control charts for attributes, e.g., np-chart and c-chart, through adding a uniform (0, 1) random observation to the conventional sample statistic (e.g., npi and ci). The adjusted sample statistic then has a continuous distribution. Consequently, given any Type I risk α (the probability that the sample statistic is on or beyond the control limits),control charts achieving the exact value of α can be readily constructed. Guidelines are given for when to use the continuity adjustment control chart, the conventional Shewhart control chart (with ±3 standard deviations control limits), and the control chart based on the exact distribution of the sample statistic before adjustment.

  9. Relationship Between Acute Benzodiazepine Poisoning and Acute Pancreatitis Risk: A Population-Based Cohort Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liaw, Geng-Wang; Hung, Dong-Zong; Chen, Wei-Kung; Lin, Cheng-Li; Lin, I-Ching; Kao, Chia-Hung

    2015-12-01

    We designed a population-based retrospective cohort study to investigate the association between the event of benzodiazepine (BZD) poisoning and the risk of acute pancreatitis.In the present study, 12,893 patients with BZD poisoning during 2000 to 2011 were enrolled and matched with 4 comparison patients according to mean age and sex. We determined the cumulative incidences and adjusted hazard ratios of acute pancreatitis.A significant association was observed between BZD poisoning and acute pancreatitis. After adjustment for potential risk factors, the patients with BZD poisoning had a 5.33-fold increased risk of acute pancreatitis compared with the controls without BZD poisoning (HR = 5.33, 95% CI = 2.26-12.60). The results revealed that acute pancreatitis in patients with BZD poisoning occurred in a follow-up time of ≤1 month (HR = 50.0, P risk of acute pancreatitis was no different between the patients with and without BZD poisoning when the follow-up time was >1 month (HR = 1.07, P > .05).This population-based study revealed the positive correlation between the event of BZD poisoning and an increased risk of acute pancreatitis. The findings warrant further large-scale and in-depth investigation.

  10. Signal Amplification in Field Effect-Based Sandwich Enzyme-Linked Immunosensing by Tuned Buffer Concentration with Ionic Strength Adjuster.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Satyendra; Kumar, Narendra; Panda, Siddhartha

    2016-04-01

    Miniaturization of the sandwich enzyme-based immunosensor has several advantages but could result in lower signal strength due to lower enzyme loading. Hence, technologies for amplification of the signal are needed. Signal amplification in a field effect-based electrochemical immunosensor utilizing chip-based ELISA is presented in this work. First, the molarities of phosphate buffer saline (PBS) and concentrations of KCl as ionic strength adjuster were optimized to maximize the GOx glucose-based enzymatic reactions in a beaker for signal amplification measured by change in the voltage shift with an EIS device (using 20 μl of solution) and validated with a commercial pH meter (using 3 ml of solution). The PBS molarity of 100 μM with 25 mM KCl provided the maximum voltage shift. These optimized buffer conditions were further verified for GOx immobilized on silicon chips, and similar trends with decreased PBS molarity were obtained; however, the voltage shift values obtained on chip reaction were lower as compared to the reactions occurring in the beaker. The decreased voltage shift with immobilized enzyme on chip could be attributed to the increased Km (Michaelis-Menten constant) values in the immobilized GOx. Finally, a more than sixfold signal enhancement (from 8 to 47 mV) for the chip-based sandwich immunoassay was obtained by altering the PBS molarity from 10 to 100 μM with 25 mM KCl.

  11. Risk of Cataract Surgery in HIV-Infected Individuals: A Danish Nationwide Population-Based Cohort Study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Line D; Kessel, Line; Molander, Laleh D

    2011-01-01

    Background. Premature aging has been suggested a risk factor for early death in patients infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). Therefore, the risk of age-related diseases, such as cataracts, should be increased in this population. In a nationwide, population-based cohort study we...... assessed the risk of cataract surgery in HIV-infected individuals compared with the general population.Methods. We identified 5315 HIV-infected individuals from a Danish national cohort of HIV-infected individuals and a population-based age- and sex-matched comparison cohort of 53 150 individuals. Data...... analogue reverse-transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTIs) were estimated by Poisson regression analyses and adjusted for age, sex, and calendar year.Results. HIV-infected individuals had a higher risk of cataract surgery than the comparison cohort (adjusted IRR, 1.87; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1...

  12. Risk of Cataract Surgery in HIV-Infected Individuals: A Danish Nationwide Population-Based Cohort Study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Line D; Kessel, Line; Molander, Laleh D

    2011-01-01

    Background. Premature aging has been suggested a risk factor for early death in patients infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). Therefore, the risk of age-related diseases, such as cataracts, should be increased in this population. In a nationwide, population-based cohort study we...... assessed the risk of cataract surgery in HIV-infected individuals compared with the general population. Methods. We identified 5315 HIV-infected individuals from a Danish national cohort of HIV-infected individuals and a population-based age- and sex-matched comparison cohort of 53¿150 individuals. Data...... analogue reverse-transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTIs) were estimated by Poisson regression analyses and adjusted for age, sex, and calendar year. Results. HIV-infected individuals had a higher risk of cataract surgery than the comparison cohort (adjusted IRR, 1.87; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1...

  13. Modelling and control of Base Plate Loading subsystem for The Motorized Adjustable Vertical Platform

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norsahperi, N. M. H.; Ahmad, S.; Fuad, A. F. M.; Mahmood, I. A.; Toha, S. F.; Akmeliawati, R.; Darsivan, F. J.

    2017-03-01

    Malaysia National Space Agency, ANGKASA is an organization that intensively undergoes many researches especially on space. On 2011, ANGKASA had built Satellite Assembly, Integration and Test Centre (AITC) for spacecraft development and test. Satellite will undergo numerous tests and one of it is Thermal test in Thermal Vacuum Chamber (TVC). In fact, TVC is located in cleanroom and on a platform. The only available facilities for loading and unloading the satellite is overhead crane. By utilizing the overhead crane can jeopardize the safety of the satellite. Therefore, Motorized vertical platform (MAVeP) for transferring the satellite into the TVC with capability to operate under cleanroom condition and limited space is proposed to facilitate the test. MAVeP is the combination of several mechanisms to produce horizontal and vertical motions with the ability to transfer the satellite from loading bay into TVC. The integration of both motions to elevate and transfer heavy loads with high precision capability will deliver major contributions in various industries such as aerospace and automotive. Base plate subsystem is capable to translate the horizontal motion by converting the angular motion from motor to linear motion by using rack and pinion mechanism. Generally a system can be modelled by performing physical modelling from schematic diagram or through system identification techniques. Both techniques are time consuming and required comprehensive understanding about the system, which may expose to error prone especially for complex mechanism. Therefore, a 3D virtual modelling technique has been implemented to represent the system in real world environment i.e. gravity to simulate control performance. The main purpose of this technique is to provide better model to analyse the system performance and capable to evaluate the dynamic behaviour of the system with visualization of the system performance, where a 3D prototype was designed and assembled in Solidworks

  14. Risk of Debt-Based Financing in Indonesian Islamic Banking

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kharisya Ayu Effendi

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study is to know the risk of debt-based financing in Islamic banking in Indonesia by using an accounting based calculation, those are NPF analysis, Credit risk Z-score and Altman Z-score. This study is telling about the risk of debt-based finacing on Indonesian Islamic banking using an accounting based measurement, those are NPF analysis, Credit Risk Z-score analysis and Altman Z-score analysis. The data was obtained from 2011 to 2015 from the website of each bank. The result is a risk on debt-based financing on Indonesian Islamic is low. The measurement using 3 accounting based measurement tool gives a consistent result, that is Indonesian Islamic banking use a debt-based financing have a high financial stability and a low risk.DOI: 10.15408/aiq.v9i2.4821

  15. Risk based rulemaking and design - Proceed with caution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zachariadis, Panos; Psaraftis, Harilaos N.; Kontovas, Christos A.

    2007-01-01

    The trend towards a risk based regulatory framework at IMO and within classification societies is expanding while some voices claim that a full ship risk based scantlings design approach can be immediately implementable. This paper attempts to clarify some widely used, but confusing to many......, notions such as Risk Based Rulemaking vs. Risk Based Design, and IMO's Goal Based Standards Traditional Approach vs. Safety Level Approach, and the implications of their use, or misuse, to future ship rulemaking, design and safety. The paper elaborates on some identified weaknesses of Formal Safety...... Assessment and the risk based approach which must be corrected. It further cautions on the over eagerness of some rule makers and designers to drop all prescriptive rule formulations and haphazardly adopt risk based formulations borrowed from other industries which may not be appropriate for ships...

  16. Initial pre-stress finding procedure and structural performance research for Levy cable dome based on linear adjustment theory

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    The cable-strut structural system is statically and kinematically indeterminate. The initial pre-stress is a key factor for determining the shape and load carrying capacity. A new numerical algorithm is presented herein for the initial pre-stress finding procedure of complete cable-strut assembly. This method is based on the linear adjustment theory and does not take into account the material behavior. By using this method, the initial pre-stress of the multi self-stress modes can be found easily and the calculation process is simplified and efficient also. Finally, the initial pre-stress and structural performances of a particular Levy cable dome are analyzed comprehensively. The algorithm has proven to be efficient and correct, and the numerical results are valuable for practical design of Levy cable dome.

  17. Incentivising flood risk adaptation through risk based insurance premiums : Trade-offs between affordability and risk reduction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hudson, Paul F.; Botzen, W.J.W.; Feyen, L.; Aerts, Jeroen C.J.H.

    2016-01-01

    The financial incentives offered by the risk-based pricing of insurance can stimulate policyholder adaptation to flood risk while potentially conflicting with affordability. We examine the trade-off between risk reduction and affordability in a model of public-private flood insurance in France and G

  18. APTZ Adjustment Based on LFPL Under Constant Illumination Condition%恒定光照下基于LFPL的APTZ调节

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    苏洁; 印桂生; 魏振华; 刘亚辉

    2011-01-01

    为提高光照恒定情况下视觉系统中PTZ调节的主动性和稳定性,提出恒定光照下基于LFPL的APTZ调节方法.采用基于局部粒子滤波的目标预定位方法,对运动目标实现自动估计的标定,提高系统调节的主动性,解决非线性跟踪问题.动态选取光照不变特征滤波粒子克服了光照变化和噪声等因素对目标预定位方法的影响,增强视觉系统的鲁棒性.对水平角和抑角采用Fuzzy控制方法,提高视觉跟踪系统的稳定性.实验结果表明,该方法是正确有效的,使用该系统对变速运动目标的长距离跟踪结果较传统方法更稳定,在光照变化和噪声条件下的运动目标跟踪实验也取得较好的结果.%To improve the initivative and stability of Pan-Tilt-Zoom(PTZ) adjustment in visual system under constant illumination condition,Active Pan-Tilt-Zoom(APTZ) adjustment method based on Local particle Filtering Pre-Location(LFPL) under constant illumination condition is proposed. Target pre-location mehtod based on local particle filter is used to realize automatic estimation calibratiing for moving target. Initivative of PTZ adjusting is improved and nonlinear tracking problem can be settled. Dynamic selecting illumination-inviarants as filtering particles can overcome the affect of illumination varying and noise in target pre-location algorithm and robust of visual system is improved. Fuzzy control method is used to control pan and tilt to improve the stability of visual tracking system. The correctness and accuracy are tested by experiments. Long distance tracking for varying speed moving target using this method shows it is more stabile than the traditional method. Moving target racking under varying illumination and noise conditions shows ideal result.

  19. OA01.45. Study of manas prakriti as a risk factor in mental adjustment disorders of young adults and role of sattvavajaya chikitsa (rational emotive behavioural therapy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kolhe, Ganesh Sheshrao

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: In Ayurveda, physical and mental status of a person is described in terms of Prakriti. Manas prakriti is divided in three types as Satvik, Rajasik, Tamasik. Further these manas prakritis are divided as Satvik 7 types, Rajasik 6 & Tamasik of 3 types. (Su.sha.4/63). Though considerable body of research work is available on Deha prakriti, not much research work is available on Manas Prakriti. Rational Emotive Education is a preventive-interventionist approach by which a person can be taught sane mental health concepts and skills. REBT is based on a valid educational model which emphasises positive self-acceptance, critical thinking, the application of the scientific method to self-understanding, and behavioural change. Experiments with the program have shown that person can be taught to guide their actions through positive directed thought. Method: Phase I: Literary search - carried out by compiling & analysing work done on Mental Adjustment disorders. PHASE II: Nidanatmaka (Epidemiological) study. Survey based on the CRF prepared on the basis of phase one compilations incorporating Nidan, samrapti. More than 500 subjects were studied and analysed for pattern of Nidana Panchaka of Mental adjustment in Young Adults w.s.r. to Manas prakriti. PHASE III: UPASHYATMAKA (CLINICAL STUDY): About 100 Patients identified as suffering from Mental Adjustment Disorders in the Nidanatmaka study to be selected for the upashayatmaka Study after due process of Informed consent. These Patients to be divided into two groups: Group A (Rajasika): - Sattvavajaya Chikitsa (REBT), Counselling as per the guide-lines of Rational Emotive Behavioural Therapy along with Yashtimadhu Ghan Vati. Group B (Tamasika): Sattvavajaya Chikitsa (REBT), Counselling as per the guide-lines of Rational Emotive Behavioural Therapy along with Tagar Ghan Vati. Result: Sattvavajaya chikitsa and drugs taken for trial were found to be effective. Conclusion: Manas prakriti has definite role in mental health

  20. Adjustment Criterion and Algorithm in Adjustment Model with Uncertain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SONG Yingchun

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Uncertainty often exists in the process of obtaining measurement data, which affects the reliability of parameter estimation. This paper establishes a new adjustment model in which uncertainty is incorporated into the function model as a parameter. A new adjustment criterion and its iterative algorithm are given based on uncertainty propagation law in the residual error, in which the maximum possible uncertainty is minimized. This paper also analyzes, with examples, the different adjustment criteria and features of optimal solutions about the least-squares adjustment, the uncertainty adjustment and total least-squares adjustment. Existing error theory is extended with new observational data processing method about uncertainty.

  1. Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Prayogo, Galang Sandy, E-mail: gasandylang@live.com; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky [Department of Mechanical Engineering, Diponegoro University, Semarang (Indonesia); Kim, Seon Jin [Department of Mechanical & Automotive Engineering of Pukyong National University (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-04-19

    Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

  2. Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prayogo, Galang Sandy; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky; Kim, Seon Jin

    2016-04-01

    Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

  3. Risk perception, risk evaluation and human values: cognitive bases of acceptability of a radioactive waste repository

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Earle, T.C.; Lindell, M.K.; Rankin, W.L.

    1981-07-01

    Public acceptance of radioactive waste management alternatives depends in part on public perception of the associated risks. Three aspects of those perceived risks were explored in this study: (1) synthetic measures of risk perception based on judgments of probability and consequences; (2) acceptability of hypothetical radioactive waste policies, and (3) effects of human values on risk perception. Both the work on synthetic measures of risk perception and on the acceptability of hypothetical policies included investigations of three categories of risk: (1) Short-term public risk (affecting persons living when the wastes are created), (2) Long-term public risk (affecting persons living after the time the wastes were created), and (3) Occupational risk (affecting persons working with the radioactive wastes). The human values work related to public risk perception in general, across categories of persons affected. Respondents were selected according to a purposive sampling strategy.

  4. Risk-based classification system of nanomaterials

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tervonen, Tommi; Linkov, Igor; Figueira, Jose Rui; Steevens, Jeffery; Chappell, Mark; Merad, Myriam

    Various stakeholders are increasingly interested in the potential toxicity and other risks associated with nanomaterials throughout the different stages of a product's life cycle (e.g., development, production, use, disposal). Risk assessment methods and tools developed and applied to chemical and

  5. Risk-based classification system of nanomaterials

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tervonen, Tommi; Linkov, Igor; Figueira, Jose Rui; Steevens, Jeffery; Chappell, Mark; Merad, Myriam

    2009-01-01

    Various stakeholders are increasingly interested in the potential toxicity and other risks associated with nanomaterials throughout the different stages of a product's life cycle (e.g., development, production, use, disposal). Risk assessment methods and tools developed and applied to chemical and b

  6. Important risk factors and attributable risk of vertebral fractures in the population-based Tromsø study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Waterloo Svanhild

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Vertebral fractures, the most common type of osteoporotic fractures, are associated with increased risk of subsequent fracture, morbidity, and mortality. The aim of this study was to examine the contribution of important risk factors to the variability in vertebral fracture risk. Methods Vertebral fracture was ascertained by VFA method (DXA, GE Lunar Prodigy in 2887 men and women, aged between 38 and 87 years, in the population-based Tromsø Study 2007/2008. Bone mineral density (BMD; g/cm2 at the hip was measured by DXA. Lifestyle information was collected by questionnaires. Multivariable logistic regression model, with anthropometric and lifestyle factors included, was used to assess the association between each or combined risk factors and vertebral fracture risk. Population attributable risk was estimated for combined risk factors in the final multivariable model. Results In both sexes, age (odds ratio [OR] per 5 year increase: 1.32; 95% CI 1.19-1.45 in women and 1.21; 95% CI 1.10-1.33 in men and BMD (OR per SD decrease: 1.60; 95% CI 1.34-1.90 in women and1.40; 95% CI 1.18-1.67 in men were independent risk factors for vertebral fracture. At BMD levels higher than 0.85 g/cm2, men had a greater risk of fracture than women (OR 1.52; 95% CI 1.14-2.04, after adjusting for age. In women and men, respectively, approximately 46% and 33% of vertebral fracture risk was attributable to advancing age (more than 70 years and low BMD (less than 0.85 g/cm2, with the latter having a greater effect than the former. Conclusions These data confirm that age and BMD are major risk factors for vertebral fracture risk. However, in both sexes the two factors accounted for less than half of fracture risk. The identification of individuals with vertebral fracture is still a challenge.

  7. Risk factors for bacterial vaginosis in pregnancy: a population-based study on Danish women

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorsen, Poul; Vogel, Ida; Molsted, Kirsten

    2006-01-01

    Background. No larger population-based study of bacterial vaginosis in pregnancy has previously been available. The objective of this study was to examine risk factors for bacterial vaginosis in pregnancy. Design. From a prospective population-based cohort of 3,596 eligible pregnant women, 2......, and sociodemographic factors) were computed. Results. At enrolment, bacterial vaginosis was diagnosed in 13.7% of Danish pregnant women. Significant risk factors for bacterial vaginosis were: daily coitus (adjusted relative risk 2.09 [1.43-3.04]), being single (1.76 [1.21-2.56]), smoking more than 10 cigarettes daily...... at conception (1.59 [1.29-1.93]), previous genital infection with Chlamydia trachomatis or Neisseria gonorrhoeae (1.39 [1.07-1.79]), and consuming 2 or more drinks per week (1.33 [1.02-1.74]) after control for confounding factors. Conclusion. In pregnancy, women who have daily coitus, are single, smokers...

  8. Melt-processable hydrophobic acrylonitrile-based copolymer systems with adjustable elastic properties designed for biomedical applications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, J; Trescher, K; Kratz, K; Jung, F; Hiebl, B; Lendlein, A

    2010-01-01

    Acrylonitrile-based polymer systems (PAN) are comprehensively explored as versatile biomaterials having various potential biomedical applications, such as membranes for extra corporal devices or matrixes for guided skin reconstruction. The surface properties (e.g. hydrophilicity or charges) of such materials can be tailored over a wide range by variation of molecular parameters such as different co-monomers or their sequence structure. Some of these materials show interesting biofunctionalities such as capability for selective cell cultivation. So far, the majority of AN-based copolymers, which were investigated in physiological environments, were processed from the solution (e.g. membranes), as these materials are thermo-sensitive and might degrade when heated. In this work we aimed at the synthesis of hydrophobic, melt-processable AN-based copolymers with adjustable elastic properties for preparation of model scaffolds with controlled pore geometry and size. For this purpose a series of copolymers from acrylonitrile and n-butyl acrylate (nBA) was synthesized via free radical copolymerisation technique. The content of nBA in the copolymer varied from 45 wt% to 70 wt%, which was confirmed by 1H-NMR spectroscopy. The glass transition temperatures (Tg) of the P(AN-co-nBA) copolymers determined by differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) decreased from 58 degrees C to 20 degrees C with increasing nBA-content, which was in excellent agreement with the prediction of the Gordon-Taylor equation based on the Tgs of the homopolymers. The Young's modulus obtained in tensile tests was found to decrease significantly with rising nBA-content from 1062 MPa to 1.2 MPa. All copolymers could be successfully processed from the melt with processing temperatures ranging from 50 degrees C to 170 degrees C, whereby thermally induced decomposition was only observed at temperatures higher than 320 degrees C in thermal gravimetric analysis (TGA). Finally, the melt processed P

  9. Hard and Soft Adjusting of a Parameter With Its Known Boundaries by the Value Based on the Experts’ Estimations Limited to the Parameter

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Romanuke Vadim V.

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Adjustment of an unknown parameter of the multistage expert procedure is considered. The lower and upper boundaries of the parameter are counted to be known. A key condition showing that experts’ estimations are satisfactory in the current procedure is an inequality, in which the value based on the estimations is not greater than the parameter. The algorithms of hard and soft adjusting are developed. If the inequality is true and its both terms are too close for a long sequence of expert procedures, the adjusting can be early stopped. The algorithms are reversible, implying inversion to the reverse inequality and sliding up off the lower boundary.

  10. Biological Based Risk Assessment for Space Exploration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cucinotta, Francis A.

    2011-01-01

    Exposures from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) - made up of high-energy protons and high-energy and charge (HZE) nuclei, and solar particle events (SPEs) - comprised largely of low- to medium-energy protons are the primary health concern for astronauts for long-term space missions. Experimental studies have shown that HZE nuclei produce both qualitative and quantitative differences in biological effects compared to terrestrial radiation, making risk assessments for cancer and degenerative risks, such as central nervous system effects and heart disease, highly uncertain. The goal for space radiation protection at NASA is to be able to reduce the uncertainties in risk assessments for Mars exploration to be small enough to ensure acceptable levels of risks are not exceeded and to adequately assess the efficacy of mitigation measures such as shielding or biological countermeasures. We review the recent BEIR VII and UNSCEAR-2006 models of cancer risks and their uncertainties. These models are shown to have an inherent 2-fold uncertainty as defined by ratio of the 95% percent confidence level to the mean projection, even before radiation quality is considered. In order to overcome the uncertainties in these models, new approaches to risk assessment are warranted. We consider new computational biology approaches to modeling cancer risks. A basic program of research that includes stochastic descriptions of the physics and chemistry of radiation tracks and biochemistry of metabolic pathways, to emerging biological understanding of cellular and tissue modifications leading to cancer is described.

  11. Methodology and application for health risk classification of chemicals in foods based on risk matrix.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Ping Ping; Liu, Zhao Ping; Zhang, Lei; Liu, Ai Dong; Song, Yan; Yong, Ling; Li, Ning

    2014-11-01

    The method has been developed to accurately identify the magnitude of health risks and provide scientific evidence for implementation of risk management in food safety. It combines two parameters including consequence and likelihood of adverse effects based on risk matrix. Score definitions and classification for the consequence and the likelihood of adverse effects are proposed. The risk score identifies the intersection of consequence and likelihood in risk matrix represents its health risk level with different colors: 'low', 'medium', 'high'. Its use in an actual case is shown.

  12. Application of Risk Index to Risk-Based Decision-Making in Vessel Traffic Service System

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    GUO Guo-ping; FAN Yao-tian

    2007-01-01

    The applications of risk index to risk estimation, risk acceptability, and cost-benefit analysis for planning vessel traffic service (VTS) system were analyzed. An example of Wuhan Port shows that its application is easily implemented and can be helpful in a comprehensive and scientific decision-making. Especially aiming to the difficult problems with respect to risk prediction, risk acceptability and cost-benefit assessment, this article put forward some new solutions based on risk-index, such as the trendline estimation, ALARP (as low as reasonably practicable) matrix and weighted cost-benefit analysis, with a fairly good operability and comparability.

  13. Are health-based payments a feasible tool for addressing risk segmentation?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogal, D L; Gauthier, A K

    1998-01-01

    As they attempt to increase health insurance coverage and improve the efficiency of the market, researchers, policymakers, and health plan representatives have been addressing the issue of risk segmentation. Many risk assessment tools and risk-adjusted payment methodologies have been developed and demonstrated for a variety of populations and payers experiencing various market constraints. The evidence shows that risk-adjusted payments are feasible for most populations receiving acute care, while technical obstacles, political issues, and some research gaps remain.

  14. A Risk-Based Interval Two-Stage Programming Model for Agricultural System Management under Uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ye Xu

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Nonpoint source (NPS pollution caused by agricultural activities is main reason that water quality in watershed becomes worse, even leading to deterioration. Moreover, pollution control is accompanied with revenue’s fall for agricultural system. How to design and generate a cost-effective and environmentally friendly agricultural production pattern is a critical issue for local managers. In this study, a risk-based interval two-stage programming model (RBITSP was developed. Compared to general ITSP model, significant contribution made by RBITSP model was that it emphasized importance of financial risk under various probabilistic levels, rather than only being concentrated on expected economic benefit, where risk is expressed as the probability of not meeting target profit under each individual scenario realization. This way effectively avoided solutions’ inaccuracy caused by traditional expected objective function and generated a variety of solutions through adjusting weight coefficients, which reflected trade-off between system economy and reliability. A case study of agricultural production management with the Tai Lake watershed was used to demonstrate superiority of proposed model. Obtained results could be a base for designing land-structure adjustment patterns and farmland retirement schemes and realizing balance of system benefit, system-failure risk, and water-body protection.

  15. Hard and Soft Adjusting of a Parameter With Its Known Boundaries by the Value Based on the Experts’ Estimations Limited to the Parameter

    OpenAIRE

    Romanuke Vadim V.

    2016-01-01

    Adjustment of an unknown parameter of the multistage expert procedure is considered. The lower and upper boundaries of the parameter are counted to be known. A key condition showing that experts’ estimations are satisfactory in the current procedure is an inequality, in which the value based on the estimations is not greater than the parameter. The algorithms of hard and soft adjusting are developed. If the inequality is true and its both terms are too close for a long sequence of expert proc...

  16. Air Quality Monitoring: Risk-Based Choices

    Science.gov (United States)

    James, John T.

    2009-01-01

    Air monitoring is secondary to rigid control of risks to air quality. Air quality monitoring requires us to target the credible residual risks. Constraints on monitoring devices are severe. Must transition from archival to real-time, on-board monitoring. Must provide data to crew in a way that they can interpret findings. Dust management and monitoring may be a major concern for exploration class missions.

  17. Process-based project proposal risk management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alok Kumar

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available We all are aware of the organizational omnipresence. Projects within the organizations are ubiquitous too. Projects achieve their goals successfully if they are planned, scheduled, controlled and implemented well. The project lifecycle of initiating, planning, scheduling, controlling and implementing are very well-planned by project managers and the organizations. Successful projects have well-developed risk management plans to deal with situations impacting projects. Like any other organisation, a university does try to access funds for different purposes too. For such organisations, running a project is not the issue, rather getting a project proposal approved to fund a project is the key. Project proposal processing is done by the nodal office in every organisation. Usually, these nodal offices help in administration and submission of a project proposal for accessing funds. Seldom are these nodal project offices within the organizations facilitate a project proposal approval by proactively reaching out to the project managers. And as project managers prepare project proposals, little or no attention is made to prepare a project proposal risk plan so as to maximise project acquisition. Risk plans are submitted while preparing proposals but these risk plans cater to a requirement to address actual projects upon approval. Hence, a risk management plan for project proposal is either missing or very little effort is made to treat the risks inherent in project acquisition. This paper is an integral attempt to highlight the importance of risk treatment for project proposal stage as an extremely important step to preparing the risk management plan made for projects corresponding to their lifecycle phases. Several tools and techniques have been proposed in the paper to help and guide either the project owner (proposer or the main organisational unit responsible for project management. Development of tools and techniques to further enhance project

  18. Adjusting for overdispersion in piecewise exponential regression models to estimate excess mortality rate in population-based research

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miguel Angel Luque-Fernandez

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In population-based cancer research, piecewise exponential regression models are used to derive adjusted estimates of excess mortality due to cancer using the Poisson generalized linear modelling framework. However, the assumption that the conditional mean and variance of the rate parameter given the set of covariates x i are equal is strong and may fail to account for overdispersion given the variability of the rate parameter (the variance exceeds the mean. Using an empirical example, we aimed to describe simple methods to test and correct for overdispersion. Methods We used a regression-based score test for overdispersion under the relative survival framework and proposed different approaches to correct for overdispersion including a quasi-likelihood, robust standard errors estimation, negative binomial regression and flexible piecewise modelling. Results All piecewise exponential regression models showed the presence of significant inherent overdispersion (p-value <0.001. However, the flexible piecewise exponential model showed the smallest overdispersion parameter (3.2 versus 21.3 for non-flexible piecewise exponential models. Conclusion We showed that there were no major differences between methods. However, using a flexible piecewise regression modelling, with either a quasi-likelihood or robust standard errors, was the best approach as it deals with both, overdispersion due to model misspecification and true or inherent overdispersion.

  19. Coherence and content of conflict-based narratives: associations to family risk and maladjustment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Müller, Eva; Perren, Sonja; Wustmann Seiler, Corina

    2014-10-01

    This study examined the role of structural and content characteristics of children's conflict-based narratives (coherence, positive and aggressive themes) in the association between early childhood family risk and children's internalizing and externalizing problems in a sample of 193 children (97 girls, 96 boys) aged 3 to 5 years (M = 3.85, SD = .48). Parents participated in an interview on family related risk factors; teachers and parents completed the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire; children completed conflict-based narratives based on the MacArthur Story Stem Battery (MSSB). We specifically investigated the mediating and moderating role of narrative coherence and content themes in the association between family risk and children's internalizing and externalizing problems. Children's narrative coherence was associated with better adjustment, and had a buffering effect on the negative relation between family risk on children's internalizing problems. Positive themes were negatively associated with externalizing problems. Telling narratives with many positive and negative themes buffered the negative association of family risk and teacher-reported externalizing problems. In sum, the findings suggest that in children, being able to tell coherent and enriched narratives may buffer the impact of family risk on their symptoms, and being able to produce positive themes rather than aggressive themes is associated with lower externalizing problems.

  20. Methods for risk-based planning of O&M of wind turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jannie Sønderkær; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2014-01-01

    In order to make wind energy more competitive, the big expenses for operation and maintenance must be reduced. Consistent decisions that minimize the expected costs can be made based on risk-based methods. Such methods have been implemented for maintenance planning for oil and gas structures......, but for offshore wind turbines, the conditions are different and the methods need to be adjusted accordingly. This paper gives an overview of various approaches to solve the decision problem: methods with decision rules based on observed variables, a method with decision rules based on the probability of failure......, a method based on limited memory influence diagrams and a method based on the partially observable Markov decision process. The methods with decision rules based on observed variables are easy to use, but can only take the most recent observation into account, when a decision is made. The other methods can...

  1. Behavior-Based Safety and Occupational Risk Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geller, E. Scott

    2005-01-01

    The behavior-based approach to managing occupational risk and preventing workplace injuries is reviewed. Unlike the typical top-down control approach to industrial safety, behavior-based safety (BBS) provides tools and procedures workers can use to take personal control of occupational risks. Strategies the author and his colleagues have been…

  2. Couples' patterns of adjustment to colon cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Northouse, L L; Mood, D; Templin, T; Mellon, S; George, T

    2000-01-01

    The objectives for this longitudinal study were to: (a) compare colon cancer patients' and their spouses' appraisal of illness, resources, concurrent stress, and adjustment during the first year following surgery; (b) examine the influence of gender (male vs female) and role (patient vs spouse caregiver) on study variables; (c) assess the degree of correlation between patients' and spouses' adjustments; and (d) identify factors that affect adjustment to the illness. Fifty-six couples were interviewed at one week post diagnosis, and at 60 days and one year post surgery. Based on a cognitive-appraisal model of stress, the Smilkstein Stress Scale was used to measure concurrent stress; the Family APGAR, Social Support Questionnaire, and Dyadic Adjustment Scale were used to measure social resources; the Beck Hopelessness Scale and Mishel Uncertainty in Illness Scales were used to measure appraisal of illness; and the Brief Symptom Inventory and Psychosocial Adjustment to Illness Scale were used to measure psychosocial adjustment. Repeated Measures Analysis of Variance indicated that spouses reported significantly more emotional distress and less social support than patients. Gender differences were found, with women reporting more distress, more role problems, and less marital satisfaction, regardless of whether they were patient or spouse. Both patients and spouses reported decreases in their family functioning and social support, but also decreases in emotional distress over time. Moderately high autocorrelations and modest intercorrelations were found among and between patients' and spouses' adjustment scores over time. The strongest predictors of patients' role adjustment problems were hopelessness and spouses' role problems. The strongest predictors of spouses' role problems were spouses' own baseline role problems and level of marital satisfaction. Interventions need to start early in the course of illness, be family-focused, and identify the couples at risk of

  3. Assessment model of dam operation risk based on monitoring data

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    Although the dams produce remarkable social and economic benefits,the threat made by unsafe dams to the life and property of people who live in the lower river area is un-negligible.Based on the monitoring data which reflect the safety condition of dams,the risk degree concept is proposed and the analysis system and model for evaluating risk degree (rate) are established in this paper by combining the reliability theory and field monitoring data.The analysis method for risk degree is presented based on Bayesian approach.A five-grade risk degree system for dam operation risk and corresponding risk degree is put forward according to the safety condition of dams.The operation risks of four cascade dams on some river are analyzed by the model and approach presented here and the result is adopted by the owner.

  4. Risk-based decisionmaking in the DOE: Challenges and status

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Henry, C.J.; Alchowiak, J.; Moses, M. [Dept. of Energy, Washington, DC (United States)] [and others

    1995-12-31

    The primary mission of the Environmental Management Program is to protect human health and the environment, the first goal of which must be, to address urgent risks and threats. Another is to provide for a safe workplace. Without credible risk assessments and good risk management practices, the central environmental goals cannot be met. Principles for risk analysis which include principles for risk assessment, management, communication, and priority setting were adopted. As recommended, Environmental Management is using risk-based decision making in its budget process and in the implementation of its program. The challenges presented in using a risk-based Decision making process are to integrate risk assessment methods and cultural and social values so as to produce meaningful priorities. The different laws and regulations governing the Department define risk differently in implementing activities to protect human health and the environment, therefore, assumptions and judgements in risk analysis vary. Currently, the Environmental Management Program is developing and improving a framework to incorporate risk into the budget process and to link the budget, compliance requirements and risk reduction/pollution prevention activities.

  5. School-Based Racial and Gender Discrimination among African American Adolescents: Exploring Gender Variation in Frequency and Implications for Adjustment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chavous, Tabbye M.; Griffin, Tiffany M.

    2012-01-01

    The present study examined school-based racial and gender discrimination experiences among African American adolescents in Grade 8 (n = 204 girls; n = 209 boys). A primary goal was exploring gender variation in frequency of both types of discrimination and associations of discrimination with academic and psychological functioning among girls and boys. Girls and boys did not vary in reported racial discrimination frequency, but boys reported more gender discrimination experiences. Multiple regression analyses within gender groups indicated that among girls and boys, racial discrimination and gender discrimination predicted higher depressive symptoms and school importance and racial discrimination predicted self-esteem. Racial and gender discrimination were also negatively associated with grade point average among boys but were not significantly associated in girls’ analyses. Significant gender discrimination X racial discrimination interactions resulted in the girls’ models predicting psychological outcomes and in boys’ models predicting academic achievement. Taken together, findings suggest the importance of considering gender- and race-related experiences in understanding academic and psychological adjustment among African American adolescents. PMID:22837794

  6. A Measurement Study of BLE iBeacon and Geometric Adjustment Scheme for Indoor Location-Based Mobile Applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeongyeup Paek

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE and the iBeacons have recently gained large interest for enabling various proximity-based application services. Given the ubiquitously deployed nature of Bluetooth devices including mobile smartphones, using BLE and iBeacon technologies seemed to be a promising future to come. This work started off with the belief that this was true: iBeacons could provide us with the accuracy in proximity and distance estimation to enable and simplify the development of many previously difficult applications. However, our empirical studies with three different iBeacon devices from various vendors and two types of smartphone platforms prove that this is not the case. Signal strength readings vary significantly over different iBeacon vendors, mobile platforms, environmental or deployment factors, and usage scenarios. This variability in signal strength naturally complicates the process of extracting an accurate location/proximity estimation in real environments. Our lessons on the limitations of iBeacon technique lead us to design a simple class attendance checking application by performing a simple form of geometric adjustments to compensate for the natural variations in beacon signal strength readings. We believe that the negative observations made in this work can provide future researchers with a reference on how well of a performance to expect from iBeacon devices as they enter their system design phases.

  7. Natural macromolecule based carboxymethyl cellulose as a gel polymer electrolyte with adjustable porosity for lithium ion batteries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Y. S.; Xiao, S. Y.; Li, M. X.; Chang, Z.; Wang, F. X.; Gao, J.; Wu, Y. P.

    2015-08-01

    A porous membrane of carboxymethyl cellulose (CMC) from natural macromolecule as a host of a gel polymer electrolyte for lithium ion batteries is reported. It is prepared, for the first time, by a simple non-solvent evaporation method and its porous structure is fine-adjusted by varying the composition ratio of the solvent and non-solvent mixture. The electrolyte uptake of the porous membrane based on CMC is 75.9%. The ionic conductivity of the as-prepared gel membrane saturated with 1 mol L-1 LiPF6 electrolyte at room temperature can be up to 0.48 mS cm-1. Moreover, the lithium ion transference in the gel membrane at room temperature is as high as 0.46, much higher than 0.27 for the commercial separator Celgard 2730. When evaluated by using LiFePO4 cathode, the prepared gel membrane exhibits very good electrochemical performance including higher reversible capacity, better rate capability and good cycling behaviour. The obtained results suggest that this porous polymer membrane shows great attraction to the lithium ion batteries requiring high safety, low cost and environmental friendliness.

  8. A Risk Metric Assessment of Scenario-Based Market Risk Measures for Volatility and Risk Estimation: Evidence from Emerging Markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sitima Innocent

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The study evaluated the sensitivity of the Value- at- Risk (VaR and Expected Shortfalls (ES with respect to portfolio allocation in emerging markets with an index portfolio of a developed market. This study utilised different models for VaR and ES techniques using various scenario-based models such as Covariance Methods, Historical Simulation and the GARCH (1, 1 for the predictive ability of these models in both relatively stable market conditions and extreme market conditions. The results showed that Expected Shortfall has less risk tolerance than VaR based on the same scenario-based market risk measures

  9. Quantified Risk Ranking Model for Condition-Based Risk and Reliability Centered Maintenance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chattopadhyaya, Pradip Kumar; Basu, Sushil Kumar; Majumdar, Manik Chandra

    2017-06-01

    In the recent past, risk and reliability centered maintenance (RRCM) framework is introduced with a shift in the methodological focus from reliability and probabilities (expected values) to reliability, uncertainty and risk. In this paper authors explain a novel methodology for risk quantification and ranking the critical items for prioritizing the maintenance actions on the basis of condition-based risk and reliability centered maintenance (CBRRCM). The critical items are identified through criticality analysis of RPN values of items of a system and the maintenance significant precipitating factors (MSPF) of items are evaluated. The criticality of risk is assessed using three risk coefficients. The likelihood risk coefficient treats the probability as a fuzzy number. The abstract risk coefficient deduces risk influenced by uncertainty, sensitivity besides other factors. The third risk coefficient is called hazardous risk coefficient, which is due to anticipated hazards which may occur in the future and the risk is deduced from criteria of consequences on safety, environment, maintenance and economic risks with corresponding cost for consequences. The characteristic values of all the three risk coefficients are obtained with a particular test. With few more tests on the system, the values may change significantly within controlling range of each coefficient, hence `random number simulation' is resorted to obtain one distinctive value for each coefficient. The risk coefficients are statistically added to obtain final risk coefficient of each critical item and then the final rankings of critical items are estimated. The prioritization in ranking of critical items using the developed mathematical model for risk assessment shall be useful in optimization of financial losses and timing of maintenance actions.

  10. Quantified Risk Ranking Model for Condition-Based Risk and Reliability Centered Maintenance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chattopadhyaya, Pradip Kumar; Basu, Sushil Kumar; Majumdar, Manik Chandra

    2016-03-01

    In the recent past, risk and reliability centered maintenance (RRCM) framework is introduced with a shift in the methodological focus from reliability and probabilities (expected values) to reliability, uncertainty and risk. In this paper authors explain a novel methodology for risk quantification and ranking the critical items for prioritizing the maintenance actions on the basis of condition-based risk and reliability centered maintenance (CBRRCM). The critical items are identified through criticality analysis of RPN values of items of a system and the maintenance significant precipitating factors (MSPF) of items are evaluated. The criticality of risk is assessed using three risk coefficients. The likelihood risk coefficient treats the probability as a fuzzy number. The abstract risk coefficient deduces risk influenced by uncertainty, sensitivity besides other factors. The third risk coefficient is called hazardous risk coefficient, which is due to anticipated hazards which may occur in the future and the risk is deduced from criteria of consequences on safety, environment, maintenance and economic risks with corresponding cost for consequences. The characteristic values of all the three risk coefficients are obtained with a particular test. With few more tests on the system, the values may change significantly within controlling range of each coefficient, hence `random number simulation' is resorted to obtain one distinctive value for each coefficient. The risk coefficients are statistically added to obtain final risk coefficient of each critical item and then the final rankings of critical items are estimated. The prioritization in ranking of critical items using the developed mathematical model for risk assessment shall be useful in optimization of financial losses and timing of maintenance actions.

  11. The national burden of cerebrovascular diseases in Spain: a population-based study using disability-adjusted life years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Catalá-López, Ferrán; Fernández de Larrea-Baz, Nerea; Morant-Ginestar, Consuelo; Álvarez-Martín, Elena; Díaz-Guzmán, Jaime; Gènova-Maleras, Ricard

    2015-04-20

    The aim of the present study was to determine the national burden of cerebrovascular diseases in the adult population of Spain. Cross-sectional, descriptive population-based study. We calculated the disability-adjusted life years (DALY) metric using country-specific data from national statistics and epidemiological studies to obtain representative outcomes for the Spanish population. DALYs were divided into years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs) and years of life lived with disability (YLDs). DALYs were estimated for the year 2008 by applying demographic structure by sex and age-groups, cause-specific mortality, morbidity data and new disability weights proposed in the recent Global Burden of Disease study. In the base case, neither YLLs nor YLDs were discounted or age-weighted. Uncertainty around DALYs was tested using sensitivity analyses. In Spain, cerebrovascular diseases generated 418,052 DALYs, comprising 337,000 (80.6%) YLLs and 81,052 (19.4%) YLDs. This accounts for 1,113 DALYs per 100,000 population (men: 1,197 and women: 1,033) and 3,912 per 100,000 in those over the age of 65 years (men: 4,427 and women: 2,033). Depending on the standard life table and choice of social values used for calculation, total DALYs varied by 15.3% and 59.9% below the main estimate. Estimates provided here represent a comprehensive analysis of the burden of cerebrovascular diseases at a national level. Prevention and control programmes aimed at reducing the disease burden merit further priority in Spain. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  12. Psychotropic drugs and the risk of fractures in old age: a prospective population-based study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Piirtola Maarit

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background There is evidence that the use of any psychotropic and the concomitant use of two or more benzodiazepines are related to an increased risk of fractures in old age. However, also controversial results exist. The aim was to describe associations between the use of a psychotropic drug, or the concomitant use of two or more of these drugs and the risk of fractures in a population aged 65 years or over. Methods This study was a part of a prospective longitudinal population-based study carried out in the municipality of Lieto, South-Western Finland. The objective was to describe gender-specific associations between the use of one psychotropic drug [benzodiazepine (BZD, antipsychotic (AP or antidepressant (AD] or the concomitant use of two or more psychotropic drugs and the risk of fractures in a population 65 years or over. Subjects were participants in the first wave of the Lieto study in 1990-1991, and they were followed up until the end of 1996. Information about fractures confirmed with radiology reports in 1,177 subjects (482 men and 695 women during the follow-up was collected from medical records. Two follow-up periods (three and six years were used, and previously found risk factors of fractures were adjusted as confounding factors separately for men and women. The Poisson regression model was used in the analyses. Results The concomitant use of two or more BZDs and the concomitant use of two or more APs were related to an increased risk of fractures during both follow-up periods after adjusting for confounding factors in men. No similar associations were found in women. Conclusions The concomitant use of several BZDs and that of several APs are associated with an increase in the risk of fractures in older men. Our findings show only risk relations. We cannot draw the conclusion that these drug combinations are causes of fractures.

  13. A genetic risk tool for obesity predisposition assessment and personalized nutrition implementation based on macronutrient intake.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goni, Leticia; Cuervo, Marta; Milagro, Fermín I; Martínez, J Alfredo

    2015-01-01

    There is little evidence about genetic risk score (GRS)-diet interactions in order to provide personalized nutrition based on the genotype. The aim of the study was to assess the value of a GRS on obesity prediction and to further evaluate the interactions between the GRS and dietary intake on obesity. A total of 711 seekers of a Nutrigenetic Service were examined for anthropometric and body composition measurements and also for dietary habits and physical activity. Oral epithelial cells were collected for the identification of 16 SNPs (related with obesity or lipid metabolism) using DNA zip-coded beads. Genotypes were coded as 0, 1 or 2 according to the number of risk alleles, and the GRS was calculated by adding risk alleles with such a criterion. After being adjusted for gender, age, physical activity and energy intake, the GRS demonstrated that individuals carrying >7 risk alleles had in average 0.93 kg/m(2) of BMI, 1.69 % of body fat mass, 1.94 cm of waist circumference and 0.01 waist-to-height ratio more than the individuals with ≤7 risk alleles. Significant interactions for GRS and the consumption of energy, total protein, animal protein, vegetable protein, total fat, saturated fatty acids, polyunsaturated fatty acids, total carbohydrates, complex carbohydrates and fiber intake on adiposity traits were found after adjusted for confounders variables. The GRS confirmed that the high genetic risk group showed greater values of adiposity than the low risk group and demonstrated that macronutrient intake modifies the GRS association with adiposity traits.

  14. Personality, lifestyle, and risk of cardiovascular disease and cancer: follow-up of population based cohort.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stürmer, Til; Hasselbach, Petra; Amelang, Manfred

    2006-06-10

    To study the relation between measures of personality and risk of cardiovascular disease and cancer in a large cohort. Follow-up of population based cohort. Heidelberg, Germany. 5114 women and men aged 40-65 in 1992-5. Psychological traits assessed by several standardised personality questionnaires in 1992-5, related to cause of death (to 2002-3) or reported incidence of cardiovascular diseases and cancer (validated by treating doctors). Relative risks (and 95% confidence intervals) for combined morbidity and mortality according to five important personality traits were estimated using multivariable Cox proportional hazards models. During median follow-up of 8.5 years, 257 participants died and 72 were diagnosed with a heart attack, 62 with stroke, and 240 with cancer (morbidity and mortality combined). A high internal locus of control over disease was associated with a decreased risk of myocardial infarction (adjusted relative risk for an increase of 1 SD = 0.75; 95% confidence interval 0.58 to 0.96). An increase of 1 SD in time urgency was associated with a decreased risk of cancer (adjusted relative risk 0.83; 0.73 to 0.95). Other major personality traits--anger control, psychoticism, and symptoms of depression--were not consistently associated with myocardial infarction, stroke, or cancer. Internal locus of control over disease and time urgency seem to be associated with reduced risk for common chronic diseases, probably by affecting unmeasured health related behaviour. The other personality traits assessed had no major impact on cardiovascular disease and cancer.

  15. Risk based technique for improving technical specifications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, I. S.; Jae, M. S.; Kim, B. S.; Hwang, S. W.; Kang, K. M.; Park, S. S.; Yu, Y. S. [Hanyang Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2001-03-15

    The objective of this study is to develop the systematic guidance for reviewing the documents associated with the changes of technical specifications. The work done in this fiscal year is the following : surveys in TS requirements, TS improvements and TS regulations in foreign countries as well as Korea, surveys on the state-of-the-art of RITSs and their use in Korea, development of a decision-making framework for both the licensee and the regulation agency, description of risk measures, assessment methodology on STI/AOT, and adverse effects caused by periodic maintenance, which are explained in appendix. The results of this study might contribute to enhancing the quality of the current technical specifications and contribute to preparing the risk informed regulation program using the decision-making framework developed in this study.

  16. Threat Based Risk Assessment for Enterprise Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-02-15

    trained practitioners and even skilled security experts can miss key threats or misunderstand the impact of breaches. Our goal is to automate and...attack risk is $1000 × 0.05, or $50. If the company grows to 10 employees and the probability any one of the employees is untrustworthy is again 0.05...then the expected loss per year is roughly $400, assuming the employees operate independently (Figure 9). This amount will certainly lead to loss of

  17. Risk-based zoning for urbanizing floodplains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porse, Erik

    2014-01-01

    Urban floodplain development brings economic benefits and enhanced flood risks. Rapidly growing cities must often balance the economic benefits and increased risks of floodplain settlement. Planning can provide multiple flood mitigation and environmental benefits by combining traditional structural measures such as levees, increasingly popular landscape and design features (green infrastructure), and non-structural measures such as zoning. Flexibility in both structural and non-structural options, including zoning procedures, can reduce flood risks. This paper presents a linear programming formulation to assess cost-effective urban floodplain development decisions that consider benefits and costs of development along with expected flood damages. It uses a probabilistic approach to identify combinations of land-use allocations (residential and commercial development, flood channels, distributed runoff management) and zoning regulations (development zones in channel) to maximize benefits. The model is applied to a floodplain planning analysis for an urbanizing region in the Baja Sur peninsula of Mexico. The analysis demonstrates how (1) economic benefits drive floodplain development, (2) flexible zoning can improve economic returns, and (3) cities can use landscapes, enhanced by technology and design, to manage floods. The framework can incorporate additional green infrastructure benefits, and bridges typical disciplinary gaps for planning and engineering.

  18. On-board adaptive model for state of charge estimation of lithium-ion batteries based on Kalman filter with proportional integral-based error adjustment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Jingwen; Dong, Guangzhong; Chen, Zonghai

    2017-10-01

    With the rapid development of battery-powered electric vehicles, the lithium-ion battery plays a critical role in the reliability of vehicle system. In order to provide timely management and protection for battery systems, it is necessary to develop a reliable battery model and accurate battery parameters estimation to describe battery dynamic behaviors. Therefore, this paper focuses on an on-board adaptive model for state-of-charge (SOC) estimation of lithium-ion batteries. Firstly, a first-order equivalent circuit battery model is employed to describe battery dynamic characteristics. Then, the recursive least square algorithm and the off-line identification method are used to provide good initial values of model parameters to ensure filter stability and reduce the convergence time. Thirdly, an extended-Kalman-filter (EKF) is applied to on-line estimate battery SOC and model parameters. Considering that the EKF is essentially a first-order Taylor approximation of battery model, which contains inevitable model errors, thus, a proportional integral-based error adjustment technique is employed to improve the performance of EKF method and correct model parameters. Finally, the experimental results on lithium-ion batteries indicate that the proposed EKF with proportional integral-based error adjustment method can provide robust and accurate battery model and on-line parameter estimation.

  19. Dynamic gauge adjustment of high-resolution X-band radar data for convective rain storms: Model-based evaluation against measured combined sewer overflow

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borup, Morten; Grum, Morten; Linde, Jens Jørgen; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen

    2016-08-01

    Numerous studies have shown that radar rainfall estimates need to be adjusted against rain gauge measurements in order to be useful for hydrological modelling. In the current study we investigate if adjustment can improve radar rainfall estimates to the point where they can be used for modelling overflows from urban drainage systems, and we furthermore investigate the importance of the aggregation period of the adjustment scheme. This is done by continuously adjusting X-band radar data based on the previous 5-30 min of rain data recorded by multiple rain gauges and propagating the rainfall estimates through a hydraulic urban drainage model. The model is built entirely from physical data, without any calibration, to avoid bias towards any specific type of rainfall estimate. The performance is assessed by comparing measured and modelled water levels at a weir downstream of a highly impermeable, well defined, 64 ha urban catchment, for nine overflow generating rain events. The dynamically adjusted radar data perform best when the aggregation period is as small as 10-20 min, in which case it performs much better than static adjusted radar data and data from rain gauges situated 2-3 km away.

  20. Assessment and adjustment of sea surface salinity products from Aquarius in the southeast Indian Ocean based onin situ measurement and MyOcean modeled data

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    XIA Shenzhen; KE Changqing; ZHOU Xiaobing; ZHANG Jie

    2016-01-01

    Thein situ sea surface salinity (SSS) measurements from a scientific cruise to the western zone of the southeast Indian Ocean covering 30°-60°S, 80°-120°E are used to assess the SSS retrieved from Aquarius (Aquarius SSS). Wind speed and sea surface temperature (SST) affect the SSS estimates based on passive microwave radiation within the mid- to low-latitude southeast Indian Ocean. The relationships among thein situ, Aquarius SSS and wind-SST corrections are used to adjust the Aquarius SSS. The adjusted Aquarius SSS are compared with the SSS data from MyOcean model. Results show that: (1) Before adjustment: compared with MyOcean SSS, the Aquarius SSS in most of the sea areas is higher; but lower in the low-temperature sea areas located at the south of 55°S and west of 98°E. The Aquarius SSS is generally higher by 0.42 on average for the southeast Indian Ocean. (2) After adjustment: the adjustment greatly counteracts the impact of high wind speeds and improves the overall accuracy of the retrieved salinity (the mean absolute error of the Zonal mean is improved by 0.06, and the mean error is -0.05 compared with MyOcean SSS). Near the latitude 42°S, the adjusted SSS is well consistent with the MyOcean and the difference is approximately 0.004.

  1. Biophysics of risk aversion based on neurotransmitter receptor theory

    CERN Document Server

    Takahashi, Taiki

    2011-01-01

    Decision under risk and uncertainty has been attracting attention in neuroeconomics and neuroendocrinology of decision-making. This paper demonstrated that the neurotransmitter receptor theory-based value (utility) function can account for human and animal risk-taking behavior. The theory predicts that (i) when dopaminergic neuronal response is efficiently coupled to the formation of ligand-receptor complex, subjects are risk-aversive (irrespective of their satisfaction level) and (ii) when the coupling is inefficient, subjects are risk-seeking at low satisfaction levels, consistent with risk-sensitive foraging theory in ecology. It is further suggested that some anomalies in decision under risk are due to inefficiency of the coupling between dopamine receptor activation and neuronal response. Future directions in the application of the model to studies in neuroeconomics of addiction and neuroendocrine modulation of risk-taking behavior are discussed.

  2. Fracture risk following bariatric surgery: a population-based study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakamura, K M; Haglind, E G C; Clowes, J A; Achenbach, S J; Atkinson, E J; Melton, L J; Kennel, K A

    2014-01-01

    The effects of bariatric surgery on skeletal health are poorly understood. We found that bariatric surgery patients are more prone to fracture when compared to the general population. While further studies of fracture risk in this population are needed, bone health should be discussed in bariatric surgery clinics. Bariatric surgery is an increasingly common treatment for medically complicated obesity. Adverse skeletal changes after bariatric surgery have been reported, but their clinical importance remains unknown. We hypothesized that bariatric surgery patients are at increased risk of fracture. We conducted a historical cohort study of fracture incidence among 258 Olmsted County, Minnesota, residents who underwent a first bariatric surgery in 1985-2004. Relative fracture risk was expressed as standardized incidence ratios (SIRs), while potential risk factors were evaluated by hazard ratios (HR) obtained from a time-to-fracture regression model. The mean (±SD) body mass index at bariatric surgery was 49.0 ± 8.4 kg/m(2), with an average age of 44 ± 10 years and 82% (212) females. Gastric bypass surgery was performed in 94% of cases. Median follow-up was 7.7 years (range, 6 days to 25 years), during which 79 subjects experienced 132 fractures. Relative risk for any fracture was increased 2.3-fold (95% confidence interval (CI), 1.8-2.8) and was elevated for a first fracture at the hip, spine, wrist, or humerus (SIR, 1.9; 95% CI, 1.1-2.9), as well as for a first fracture at any other site (SIR, 2.5; 95% CI, 2.0-3.2). Better preoperative activity status was associated with a lower age-adjusted risk (HR, 0.4; 95% CI, 0.2-0.8) while prior fracture history was not associated with postoperative fracture risk. Bariatric surgery, which is accompanied by substantial biochemical, hormonal, and mechanical changes, is associated with an increased risk of fracture.

  3. Risk factors for bacterial vaginosis in pregnancy: a population-based study on Danish women

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorsen, Poul; Vogel, Ida; Molsted, Kirsten

    2006-01-01

    Background. No larger population-based study of bacterial vaginosis in pregnancy has previously been available. The objective of this study was to examine risk factors for bacterial vaginosis in pregnancy. Design. From a prospective population-based cohort of 3,596 eligible pregnant women, 2......,927 (81.4%) completed the study. Methods. Women were asked to participate in this study at their first prenatal visit at 17 gestational weeks (range 7+/324+/0). Samples from the genital tract were taken at enrolment. Bacterial vaginosis was determined by Amsel's clinical criteria (3 out of 4: pH>/4.......5, homogenous discharge, clue cells, and positive amine test). Data were collected from three questionnaires completed during the second and third trimesters and correlated with the diagnosis of bacterial vaginosis. Crude and adjusted relative risks (reproductive, medical, behavioral, sexual...

  4. Risk assessment and hierarchical risk management of enterprises in chemical industrial parks based on catastrophe theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yu; Song, Guobao; Yang, Fenglin; Zhang, Shushen; Zhang, Yun; Liu, Zhenyu

    2012-12-03

    According to risk systems theory and the characteristics of the chemical industry, an index system was established for risk assessment of enterprises in chemical industrial parks (CIPs) based on the inherent risk of the source, effectiveness of the prevention and control mechanism, and vulnerability of the receptor. A comprehensive risk assessment method based on catastrophe theory was then proposed and used to analyze the risk levels of ten major chemical enterprises in the Songmu Island CIP, China. According to the principle of equal distribution function, the chemical enterprise risk level was divided into the following five levels: 1.0 (very safe), 0.8 (safe), 0.6 (generally recognized as safe, GRAS), 0.4 (unsafe), 0.2 (very unsafe). The results revealed five enterprises (50%) with an unsafe risk level, and another five enterprises (50%) at the generally recognized as safe risk level. This method solves the multi-objective evaluation and decision-making problem. Additionally, this method involves simple calculations and provides an effective technique for risk assessment and hierarchical risk management of enterprises in CIPs.

  5. Biological Bases of Space Radiation Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    1997-01-01

    In this session, Session JP4, the discussion focuses on the following topics: Hematopoiesis Dynamics in Irradiated Mammals, Mathematical Modeling; Estimating Health Risks in Space from Galactic Cosmic Rays; Failure of Heavy Ions to Affect Physiological Integrity of the Corneal Endothelial Monolayer; Application of an Unbiased Two-Gel CDNA Library Screening Method to Expression Monitoring of Genes in Irradiated Versus Control Cells; Detection of Radiation-Induced DNA Strand Breaks in Mammalian Cells By Enzymatic Post-Labeling; Evaluation of Bleomycin-Induced Chromosome Aberrations Under Microgravity Conditions in Human Lymphocytes, Using "Fish" Techniques; Technical Description of the Space Exposure Biology Assembly Seba on ISS; and Cytogenetic Research in Biological Dosimetry.

  6. Adjusting Growth

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2006-01-01

    How does China's approach to economic growth differ from that of the United States? In the context of economic globalization, how can China and the United States establish win-win relations? Focusing on these questions, People's Daily Online Washington-based correspondent Yong Tang recently interviewed Paul A Samuelson, professor of economics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and Robert Mundell, professor of international economics at Columbia University, both of whom are Nobel Prize Laureate...

  7. Model of personalised risk assessment of phytoestrogen intake based on 11 SNP in ESR1 and ESR2 genes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Radoslav Zidek

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Phytoestrogens can induce biological responses in vertebrates by mimicking or modulating the action or production of endogenous hormones, and because of their structural similarity with estradiol they have the ability to cause estrogenic or anti-estrogenic effects. Risk assessment of phytoestrogens intake may therefore provide important information useful in the adjustment of nutrients composition, as one of nutrigenomics approaches. Proper risk assessment is an essential part of good nutrient composition. The current risk assessment procedures does use an additive effect of genes, but the accumulation of relevant factors do not count with the distribution of risk in the European population. A combination of approaches based on genetic score, along with the use of the data bases like 1000 genomes and dbSNP is a powerful tool for population risk modelling that would provide reasonable results without needs of as testing a representative number of individual genetic profiles.

  8. A population-based study of race-specific risk for placental abruption

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stamilio David M

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Efforts to elucidate risk factors for placental abruption are imperative due to the severity of complications it produces for both mother and fetus, and its contribution to preterm birth. Ethnicity-based differences in risk of placental abruption and preterm birth have been reported. We tested the hypotheses that race, after adjusting for other factors, is associated with the risk of placental abruption at specific gestational ages, and that there is a greater contribution of placental abruption to the increased risk of preterm birth in Black mothers, compared to White mothers. Methods We conducted a population-based cohort study using the Missouri Department of Health's maternally-linked database of all births in Missouri (1989–1997 to assess racial effects on placental abruption and the contribution of placental abruption to preterm birth, at different gestational age categories (n = 664,303. Results Among 108,806 births to Black mothers and 555,497 births to White mothers, 1.02% (95% CI 0.96–1.08 of Black births were complicated by placental abruption, compared to 0.71% (95% CI 0.69–0.73 of White births (aOR 1.32, 95% CI 1.22–1.43. The magnitude of risk of placental abruption for Black mothers, compared to White mothers, increased with younger gestational age categories. The risk of placental abruption resulting in term and extreme preterm births ( Conclusion Black women have an increased risk of placental abruption compared to White women, even when controlling for known coexisting risk factors. This risk increase is greatest at the earliest preterm gestational ages when outcomes are the poorest. The relative contribution of placental abruption to term births was greater in Black women, whereas the relative contribution of placental abruption to preterm birth was greater in White women.

  9. Application of risk-based inspection methods for cryogenic equipment

    CERN Document Server

    CERN. Geneva

    2016-01-01

    Risk-based Inspection (RBI) is widely applied across the world as part of Pressure Equipment Integrity Management, especially in the oil and gas industry, to generally reduce costs compared with time-based approaches and assist in assigning resources to the most critical equipment. One of the challenges in RBI is to apply it for low temperature and cryogenic applications, as there are usually no degradation mechanisms by which to determine a suitable probability of failure in the overall risk assessment. However, the assumptions used for other degradation mechanisms can be adopted to determine, qualitatively and semi-quantitatively, a consequence of failure within the risk assessment. This can assist in providing a consistent basis for the assumptions used in ensuring adequate process safety barriers and determining suitable sizing of relief devices. This presentation will discuss risk-based inspection in the context of cryogenic safety, as well as present some of the considerations for the risk assessme...

  10. Research needs for risk-informed, performance-based regulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thadani, A.C.

    1997-01-01

    This article summarizes the activities of the Office of Research of the NRC, both from a historical aspect as well as it applies to the application of risk-based decision making. The office has been actively involved in problems related to understanding risks related to core accidents, to understanding the problem of aging of reactor components and materials from years of service, and toward the understanding and analysis of severe accidents. In addition new policy statements regarding the role of risk assessment in regulatory applications has given focus for the need of further work. The NRC has used risk assessment in regulatory questions in the past but in a fairly ad hoc sort of manner. The new policies will clearly require a better defined application of risk assessment, and help for people evaluating applications in judging the applicability of such applications when a component of them is based on risk-based decision making. To address this, standard review plans are being prepared to serve as guides for such questions. In addition, with regulatory decisions being allowed to be based upon risk-based decisions, it is necessary to have an adequate data base prepared, and made publically available, to support such a position.

  11. RiskREP: Risk-Based Security Requirements Elicitation and Prioritization (extended version)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Herrmann, Andrea; Morali, A.

    2010-01-01

    Today, companies are required to be in control of the security of their IT assets. This is especially challenging in the presence of limited budgets and conflicting requirements. Here, we present Risk-Based Requirements Elicitation and Prioritization (RiskREP), a method for managing IT security

  12. A Risk-Based Sensor Placement Methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Ronald W [ORNL; Kulesz, James J [ORNL

    2006-08-01

    A sensor placement methodology is proposed to solve the problem of optimal location of sensors or detectors to protect population against the exposure to and effects of known and/or postulated chemical, biological, and/or radiological threats. Historical meteorological data are used to characterize weather conditions as wind speed and direction pairs with the percentage of occurrence of the pairs over the historical period. The meteorological data drive atmospheric transport and dispersion modeling of the threats, the results of which are used to calculate population at risk against standard exposure levels. Sensor locations are determined via a dynamic programming algorithm where threats captured or detected by sensors placed in prior stages are removed from consideration in subsequent stages. Moreover, the proposed methodology provides a quantification of the marginal utility of each additional sensor or detector. Thus, the criterion for halting the iterative process can be the number of detectors available, a threshold marginal utility value, or the cumulative detection of a minimum factor of the total risk value represented by all threats.

  13. Alcohol consumption, physical activity, and chronic disease risk factors: a population-based cross-sectional survey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Djoussé Luc

    2006-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Whether the association of alcohol consumption and cardiovascular disease is the product of confounding and the degree to which this concern applies to other behaviors are unclear. Methods Using the 2003 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, a population-based telephone survey of adults in the US, we compared chronic disease risk factors between 123,359 abstainers and 126,674 moderate drinkers, defined as intake of ≤ 2 drinks per day among men and ≤ 1 drink per day among women, using age- and sex- and multivariable-adjusted models. We also compared sedentary and active individuals, defined as moderate physical activity ≥ 30 minutes per day for ≥ 5 days per week, or vigorous activity for ≥ 20 minutes per day on ≥ 3 days. Results Chronic disease risk factors and features of unhealthy lifestyle were generally more prevalent among abstainers than drinkers in age- and sex-adjusted analyses, but these differences were generally attenuated or eliminated by additional adjustment for race and education. For low fruit and vegetable intake, divorced marital status, and absence of a personal physician, adjustment for race and education reversed initially positive age- and sex-adjusted associations with abstention. Comparison of sedentary and active individuals produced similar findings, with generally lower levels of risk factors among more physical active individuals. Conclusion The differences between abstainers and drinkers are attenuated after adjustment for limited sociodemographic features, and sedentary and active individuals share a similar pattern. Although observational studies of both factors may be susceptible to uncontrolled confounding, our results provide no evidence that moderate drinking is unique in this regard. Ultimately, randomized trials of all such lifestyle factors will be needed to answer these questions definitively.

  14. Risk-based audit selection of dairy farms

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Asseldonk, van M.A.P.M.; Velthuis, A.G.J.

    2014-01-01

    Dairy farms are audited in the Netherlands on numerous process standards. Each farm is audited once every 2 years. Increasing demands for cost-effectiveness in farm audits can be met by introducing risk-based principles. This implies targeting subpopulations with a higher risk of poor process standa

  15. Risk-based Process Development of Biosimilars as Part of the Quality by Design Paradigm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zalai, Dénes; Dietzsch, Christian; Herwig, Christoph

    2013-01-01

    In the last few years, several quality by design (QbD) studies demonstrated the benefit of systematic approaches for biopharmaceutical development. However, only very few studies identified biosimilars as a special case of product development. The targeted quality profile of biosimilars is strictly defined by the originator's product characteristic. Moreover, the major source of prior knowledge is the experience with the originator product itself. Processing this information in biosimilar development has a major effect on risk management and process development strategies. The main objective of this contribution is to demonstrate how risk management can facilitate the implementation of QbD in early-stage product development with special emphasis on fitting the reported approaches to biosimilars. Risk assessments were highlighted as important tools to integrate prior knowledge in biosimilar development. The risk assessment process as suggested by the International Conference on Harmonization (ICH Q9) was reviewed and three elements were identified to play a key role in targeted risk assessment approaches: proper understanding of target linkage, risk assessment tool compliance, and criticality threshold value. Adjusting these steps to biosimilar applications helped to address some unique challenges of these products such as a strictly defined quality profile or a lack of process knowledge. This contribution demonstrates the need for tailored risk management approaches for the risk-based development of biosimilars and provides novel tools for the integration of additional knowledge available for these products. The pharmaceutical industry is facing challenges such as profit loss and price competition. Companies are forced to rationalize business models and to cut costs in development as well as manufacturing. These trends recently hinder the implementation of any concepts that do not offer certain financial benefit or promise a long return of investment. Quality by

  16. Risk Based Maintenance in Electricity Network Organisations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mehairjan, R.P.Y.

    2016-01-01

    Presently, maintenance management of assets in infrastructure utilities such as electricity, gas and water are widely undergoing changes towards new working environments. These are mainly driven against the background of stringent regulatory regimes, an ageing asset base, increased customer demands

  17. Study of a risk-based piping inspection guideline system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tien, Shiaw-Wen; Hwang, Wen-Tsung; Tsai, Chih-Hung

    2007-02-01

    A risk-based inspection system and a piping inspection guideline model were developed in this study. The research procedure consists of two parts--the building of a risk-based inspection model for piping and the construction of a risk-based piping inspection guideline model. Field visits at the plant were conducted to develop the risk-based inspection and strategic analysis system. A knowledge-based model had been built in accordance with international standards and local government regulations, and the rational unified process was applied for reducing the discrepancy in the development of the models. The models had been designed to analyze damage factors, damage models, and potential damage positions of piping in the petrochemical plants. The purpose of this study was to provide inspection-related personnel with the optimal planning tools for piping inspections, hence, to enable effective predictions of potential piping risks and to enhance the better degree of safety in plant operations that the petrochemical industries can be expected to achieve. A risk analysis was conducted on the piping system of a petrochemical plant. The outcome indicated that most of the risks resulted from a small number of pipelines.

  18. Prediction of Banking Systemic Risk Based on Support Vector Machine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shouwei Li

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Banking systemic risk is a complex nonlinear phenomenon and has shed light on the importance of safeguarding financial stability by recent financial crisis. According to the complex nonlinear characteristics of banking systemic risk, in this paper we apply support vector machine (SVM to the prediction of banking systemic risk in an attempt to suggest a new model with better explanatory power and stability. We conduct a case study of an SVM-based prediction model for Chinese banking systemic risk and find the experiment results showing that support vector machine is an efficient method in such case.

  19. Serum Fatty Acids and Risk of Cutaneous Melanoma: A Population-Based Case-Control Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marco Vinceti

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Some observational studies have suggested that excess dietary intake of polyunsaturated fatty acids such as linoleic acid increases cutaneous melanoma risk. We aimed at examining the association between serum fatty acids and melanoma risk by conducting a population-based case-control study in a northern Italy community. Methods. The percentage composition of 12 fatty acids was determined in 51 newly diagnosed melanoma patients and 51 age- and sex-matched population controls by extracting total lipids from serum samples using thin layer and gas chromatography. Conditional logistic regression was used to estimate the relative risk of melanoma associated with tertiles of percentage composition of each fatty acid as well as groupings including saturated, monounsaturated, and polyunsaturated fatty acids. Results. We found a slightly increased melanoma risk for stearic and arachidic acids proportion, with and without adjustment for potential confounders. For an n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acid, docosapentaenoic acid, we found a male-specific direct association with melanoma risk. No other associations emerged for the other saturated, monounsaturated, and polyunsaturated fatty acids, individually or grouped by type. Conclusions. These findings do not suggest a major role of fatty acids, including linoleic acid, on risk of cutaneous melanoma, though their evaluation is limited by the small sample size.

  20. How Should Risk-Based Regulation Reflect Current Public Opinion?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pollock, Christopher John

    2016-08-01

    Risk-based regulation of novel agricultural products with public choice manifest via traceability and labelling is a more effective approach than the use of regulatory processes to reflect public concerns, which may not always be supported by evidence.

  1. Ontology-based specification, identification and analysis of perioperative risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uciteli, Alexandr; Neumann, Juliane; Tahar, Kais; Saleh, Kutaiba; Stucke, Stephan; Faulbrück-Röhr, Sebastian; Kaeding, André; Specht, Martin; Schmidt, Tobias; Neumuth, Thomas; Besting, Andreas; Stegemann, Dominik; Portheine, Frank; Herre, Heinrich

    2017-09-06

    Medical personnel in hospitals often works under great physical and mental strain. In medical decision-making, errors can never be completely ruled out. Several studies have shown that between 50 and 60% of adverse events could have been avoided through better organization, more attention or more effective security procedures. Critical situations especially arise during interdisciplinary collaboration and the use of complex medical technology, for example during surgical interventions and in perioperative settings (the period of time before, during and after surgical intervention). In this paper, we present an ontology and an ontology-based software system, which can identify risks across medical processes and supports the avoidance of errors in particular in the perioperative setting. We developed a practicable definition of the risk notion, which is easily understandable by the medical staff and is usable for the software tools. Based on this definition, we developed a Risk Identification Ontology (RIO) and used it for the specification and the identification of perioperative risks. An agent system was developed, which gathers risk-relevant data during the whole perioperative treatment process from various sources and provides it for risk identification and analysis in a centralized fashion. The results of such an analysis are provided to the medical personnel in form of context-sensitive hints and alerts. For the identification of the ontologically specified risks, we developed an ontology-based software module, called Ontology-based Risk Detector (OntoRiDe). About 20 risks relating to cochlear implantation (CI) have already been implemented. Comprehensive testing has indicated the correctness of the data acquisition, risk identification and analysis components, as well as the web-based visualization of results.

  2. BREATH: Web-Based Self-Management for Psychological Adjustment After Primary Breast Cancer--Results of a Multicenter Randomized Controlled Trial

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Berg, S.W. van den; Gielissen, M.F.M.; Custers, J.A.E.; Graaf, W.T.A. van der; Ottevanger, P.B.; Prins, J.B.

    2015-01-01

    PURPOSE: Early breast cancer survivors (BCSs) report high unmet care needs, and easily accessible care is not routinely available for this growing population. The Breast Cancer E-Health (BREATH) trial is a Web-based self-management intervention to support the psychological adjustment of women after

  3. Management of Microbiologically Influenced Corrosion in Risk Based Inspection analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skovhus, Torben Lund; Hillier, Elizabeth; Andersen, Erlend S.

    2016-01-01

    Operating offshore oil and gas production facilities is often associated with high risk. In order to manage the risk, operators commonly use aids to support decision making in the establishment of a maintenance and inspection strategy. Risk Based Inspection (RBI) analysis is widely used in the of......Operating offshore oil and gas production facilities is often associated with high risk. In order to manage the risk, operators commonly use aids to support decision making in the establishment of a maintenance and inspection strategy. Risk Based Inspection (RBI) analysis is widely used...... in the offshore industry as a means to justify the inspection strategy adopted. The RBI analysis is a decision-making technique that enables asset managers to identify the risk related to failure of their most critical systems and components, with an effect on safety, environmental and business related issues....... Risk is a measure of possible loss or injury, and is expressed as the combination of the incident probability and its consequences. A component may have several associated risk levels depending on the different consequences of failure and the different probabilities of those failures occurring...

  4. Risk prediction of cardiovascular death based on the QTc interval

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jonas B; Graff, Claus; Rasmussen, Peter V

    2014-01-01

    .1 years, 6647 persons died from cardiovascular causes. Long-term risks of CVD were estimated for subgroups defined by age, gender, cardiovascular disease, and QTc interval categories. In general, we observed an increased risk of CVD for both very short and long QTc intervals. Prolongation of the QTc......AIMS: Using a large, contemporary primary care population we aimed to provide absolute long-term risks of cardiovascular death (CVD) based on the QTc interval and to test whether the QTc interval is of value in risk prediction of CVD on an individual level. METHODS AND RESULTS: Digital...... interval resulted in the worst prognosis for men whereas in women, a very short QTc interval was equivalent in risk to a borderline prolonged QTc interval. The effect of the QTc interval on the absolute risk of CVD was most pronounced in the elderly and in those with cardiovascular disease whereas...

  5. Association of urinary metal profiles with altered glucose levels and diabetes risk: a population-based study in China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Feng

    Full Text Available Elevated heavy metals and fasting plasma glucose (FPG levels were both associated with increased risk of cardiovascular diseases. However, studies on the associations of heavy metals and essential elements with altered FPG and diabetes risk were limited or conflicting. The objective of this study was to evaluate the potential associations of heavy metals and essential trace elements with FPG and diabetes risk among general Chinese population.We conducted a cross-sectional study to investigate the associations of urinary concentrations of 23 metals with FPG, impaired fasting glucose (IFG and diabetes among 2242 community-based Chinese adults in Wuhan. We used the false discovery rate (FDR method to correct for multiple hypothesis tests.After adjusting for potential confounders, urinary aluminum, titanium, cobalt, nickel, copper, zinc, selenium, rubidium, strontium, molybdenum, cadmium, antimony, barium, tungsten and lead were associated with altered FPG, IFG or diabetes risk (all P< 0.05; arsenic was only dose-dependently related to diabetes (P< 0.05. After additional adjustment for multiple testing, titanium, copper, zinc, selenium, rubidium, tungsten and lead were still significantly associated with one or more outcomes (all FDR-adjusted P< 0.05.Our results suggest that multiple metals in urine are associated with FPG, IFG or diabetes risk. Because the cross-sectional design precludes inferences about causality, further prospective studies are warranted to validate our findings.

  6. Trait-based ecological risk assessment (TERA): the new frontier?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baird, Donald J; Rubach, Mascha N; Van den Brink, Paul J

    2008-01-01

    Traits describe the physical characteristics, ecological niche, and functional role of species within ecosystems, and trait-based approaches are now being introduced into the field of Ecological Risk Assessment (ERA). The costs and benefits arising from the adoption of these approaches in the assessment of risks from toxic substances are described, and the path forward for this new frontier in risk assessment science is presented. In particular, the necessity for more open collaboration and web-based data-sharing to facilitate the development of these exciting new tools is stressed, and the role of scientific organizations such as SETAC as promoters of this ambitious program is highlighted.

  7. Risk-based rules for crane safety systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ruud, Stian [Section for Control Systems, DNV Maritime, 1322 Hovik (Norway)], E-mail: Stian.Ruud@dnv.com; Mikkelsen, Age [Section for Lifting Appliances, DNV Maritime, 1322 Hovik (Norway)], E-mail: Age.Mikkelsen@dnv.com

    2008-09-15

    The International Maritime Organisation (IMO) has recommended a method called formal safety assessment (FSA) for future development of rules and regulations. The FSA method has been applied in a pilot research project for development of risk-based rules and functional requirements for systems and components for offshore crane systems. This paper reports some developments in the project. A method for estimating target reliability for the risk-control options (safety functions) by means of the cost/benefit decision criterion has been developed in the project and is presented in this paper. Finally, a structure for risk-based rules is proposed and presented.

  8. Infective Endocarditis and Cancer Risk: A Population-Based Cohort Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Li-Min; Wu, Jung-Nan; Lin, Cheng-Li; Day, Jen-Der; Liang, Ji-An; Liou, Li-Ren; Kao, Chia-Hung

    2016-03-01

    This study investigated the possible relationship between endocarditis and overall and individual cancer risk among study participants in Taiwan.We used data from the National Health Insurance program of Taiwan to conduct a population-based, observational, and retrospective cohort study. The case group consisted of 14,534 patients who were diagnosed with endocarditis between January 1, 2000 and December 31, 2010. For the control group, 4 patients without endocarditis were frequency matched to each endocarditis patient according to age, sex, and index year. Competing risks regression analysis was conducted to determine the effect of endocarditis on cancer risk.A large difference was noted in Charlson comorbidity index between endocarditis and nonendocarditis patients. In patients with endocarditis, the risk for developing overall cancer was significant and 119% higher than in patients without endocarditis (adjusted subhazard ratio = 2.19, 95% confidence interval = 1.98-2.42). Regarding individual cancers, in addition to head and neck, uterus, female breast and hematological malignancies, the risks of developing colorectal cancer, and some digestive tract cancers were significantly higher. Additional analyses determined that the association of cancer with endocarditis is stronger within the 1st 5 years after endocarditis diagnosis.This population-based cohort study found that patients with endocarditis are at a higher risk for colorectal cancer and other cancers in Taiwan. The risk was even higher within the 1st 5 years after endocarditis diagnosis. It suggested that endocarditis is an early marker of colorectal cancer and other cancers. The underlying mechanisms must still be explored and may account for a shared risk factor of infection in both endocarditis and malignancy.

  9. Adjusting the specificity of an engine map based on the sensitivity of an engine control parameter relative to a performance variable

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Li; Lee, Donghoon; Yilmaz, Hakan; Stefanopoulou, Anna

    2014-10-28

    Methods and systems for engine control optimization are provided. A first and a second operating condition of a vehicle engine are detected. An initial value is identified for a first and a second engine control parameter corresponding to a combination of the detected operating conditions according to a first and a second engine map look-up table. The initial values for the engine control parameters are adjusted based on a detected engine performance variable to cause the engine performance variable to approach a target value. A first and a second sensitivity of the engine performance variable are determined in response to changes in the engine control parameters. The first engine map look-up table is adjusted when the first sensitivity is greater than a threshold, and the second engine map look-up table is adjusted when the second sensitivity is greater than a threshold.

  10. Ship crashworthiness in risk based design

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vredeveldt, A.W.

    2011-01-01

    The concept of goal based design is gradually gaining a foothold in the IMO regulatory process. This paper demonstrates how this concept can be implemented in a practical way. The demonstrator case is transport of dangerous cargo on Europe's inland water ways. © 2011 Taylor & Francis Group, London.

  11. Risk-Based Explosive Safety Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-11-30

    other provision of law, no person shall be subject to any penalty for failing to comply with a collection of information if it does not display a...based analysis of scenario 2 would likely determine that the hazard of death or injury to any single person is low due to the separation distance

  12. A software tool for estimation of burden of infectious diseases in Europe using incidence-based disability adjusted life years

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Colzani, E. (Edoardo); A. Cassini (Alessandro); D. Lewandowski (Daniel); M.J.J. Mangen; Plass, D. (Dietrich); S.A. McDonald (Scott); R.A.W. Van Lier (Rene A. W.); J.A. Haagsma (Juanita); Maringhini, G. (Guido); Pini, A. (Alessandro); P Kramarz (Piotr); M.E.E. Kretzschmar (Mirjam)

    2017-01-01

    textabstractThe burden of disease framework facilitates the assessment of the health impact of diseases through the use of summary measures of population health such as Disability- Adjusted Life Years (DALYs). However, calculating, interpreting and communicating the results of studies using this met

  13. A Software Tool for Estimation of Burden of Infectious Diseases in Europe Using Incidence-Based Disability Adjusted Life Years

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Colzani, Edoardo; Cassini, Alessandro; Lewandowski, Daniel; Mangen, Marie-Josee J; Plass, Dietrich; McDonald, Scott A; van Lier, Alies; Haagsma, Juanita A; Maringhini, Guido; Pini, Alessandro; Kramarz, Piotr; Kretzschmar, Mirjam EE

    2017-01-01

    The burden of disease framework facilitates the assessment of the health impact of diseases through the use of summary measures of population health such as Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs). However, calculating, interpreting and communicating the results of studies using this methodology pose

  14. A software tool for estimation of burden of infectious diseases in Europe using incidence-based disability adjusted life years

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Colzani, E. (Edoardo); A. Cassini (Alessandro); D. Lewandowski (Daniel); M.J.J. Mangen; Plass, D. (Dietrich); S.A. McDonald (Scott); R.A.W. Van Lier (Rene A. W.); J.A. Haagsma (Juanita); Maringhini, G. (Guido); Pini, A. (Alessandro); P Kramarz (Piotr); M.E.E. Kretzschmar (Mirjam)

    2017-01-01

    textabstractThe burden of disease framework facilitates the assessment of the health impact of diseases through the use of summary measures of population health such as Disability- Adjusted Life Years (DALYs). However, calculating, interpreting and communicating the results of studies using this

  15. A software tool for estimation of burden of infectious diseases in Europe using incidence-based disability adjusted life years

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Colzani, Edoardo; Cassini, Alessandro; Lewandowski, Daniel; Mangen, Marie Josee J.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/217293964; Plass, Dietrich; McDonald, Scott A; van Lier, Alies; Haagsma, Juanita A.; Maringhini, Guido; Pini, Alessandro; Kramarz, Piotr; Kretzschmar, Mirjam E.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/075187981

    2017-01-01

    The burden of disease framework facilitates the assessment of the health impact of diseases through the use of summary measures of population health such as Disability- Adjusted Life Years (DALYs). However, calculating, interpreting and communicating the results of studies using this methodology

  16. Improved constraints on models of glacial isostatic adjustment: a review of the contribution of ground-based geodetic observations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    King, M.A.; Altamimi, Z.; Boehm, J.; Bos, M.; Dach, R.; Elosegui, P. Fund, F.; Hernández-Pajares, M.; Lavallee, D.; Riva, E.M.; et al.

    2010-01-01

    The provision of accurate models of Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) is presently a priority need in climate studies, largely due to the potential of the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data to be used to determine accurate and continent-wide assessments of ice mass change and hydr

  17. Development of a claims-based risk score to identify obese individuals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, Jeanne M; Chang, Hsien-Yen; Bolen, Shari D; Shore, Andrew D; Goodwin, Suzanne M; Weiner, Jonathan P

    2010-08-01

    Obesity is underdiagnosed, hampering system-based health promotion and research. Our objective was to develop and validate a claims-based risk model to identify obese persons using medical diagnosis and prescription records. We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of de-identified claims data from enrollees of 3 Blue Cross Blue Shield plans who completed a health risk assessment capturing height and weight. The final sample of 71,057 enrollees was randomly split into 2 subsamples for development and validation of the obesity risk model. Using the Johns Hopkins Adjusted Clinical Groups case-mix/predictive risk methodology, we categorized study members' diagnosis (ICD) codes. Logistic regression was used to determine which claims-based risk markers were associated with a body mass index (BMI) > or = 35 kg/m(2). The sensitivities of the scores > or =90(th) percentile to detect obesity were 26% to 33%, while the specificities were >90%. The areas under the receiver operator curve ranged from 0.67 to 0.73. In contrast, a diagnosis of obesity or an obesity medication alone had very poor sensitivity (10% and 1%, respectively); the obesity risk model identified an additional 22% of obese members. Varying the percentile cut-point from the 70(th) to the 99(th) percentile resulted in positive predictive values ranging from 15.5 to 59.2. An obesity risk score was highly specific for detecting a BMI > or = 35 kg/m(2) and substantially increased the detection of obese members beyond a provider-coded obesity diagnosis or medication claim. This model could be used for obesity care management and health promotion or for obesity-related research.

  18. Screening Models for Cardiac Risk Evaluation in Emergency Abdominal Surgery. I. Evaluation of the Intraoperative Period Risk based on Data from the Preoperative Period

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mikhail Matveev

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available A classification of intraoperative cardio-vascular complications (CVC was performed, based on data from 466 patients subjected to emergency surgery, due to severe abdominal surgical diseases or traumas, in accordance with the severe criteria of ACC/AHA for CVC in noncardiac surgery. There were 370 intraoperative CVC registered, distributed as follows: groups with low risk (148, moderate risk (200, and high risk (22. Patient groups were formed, according to the CVC risk level, during the intraoperative period, for which the determinant factor for the group distribution of patients was the complication with the highest risk. Individual data was collected for each patient, based on 65 indices: age, physical status, diseases, surgical interventions, anaesthesiological information, intra and postoperative cardio-vascular complications, disease outcome, causes of death, cardiovascular disease anamnesis, anamnesis of all other nonsurgical diseases present, laboratory results, results from all imaging and instrumental examinations, etc. On the basis of these indices, a new distribution of the risk factors was implemented, into groups with different levels of risk of CVC during intraoperative period. This result is a solid argument, substantiating the proposal to introduce these adjustments for determining the severity of CVC in the specific conditions of emergency abdominal surgery.

  19. Psychological Adjustment in Breast Cancer Survivors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stanton, Annette L; Bower, Julienne E

    2015-01-01

    Women living with a diagnosis of breast cancer constitute more than 20 % of the cancer survivor population in the United States. Research on trajectories of psychological adjustment in women recently diagnosed with breast suggests that the largest proportion of women evidences relatively low psychological distress either from the point of diagnosis or after a period of recovery. Substantial heterogeneity exists, however, and some women are at risk for lingering depression, anxiety, fear of cancer recurrence and other long-term psychological effects. Most women diagnosed with breast cancer also report a number of benefits that arise from their experience of cancer. Longitudinal studies have illuminated risk and protective factors for psychological adjustment in breast cancer survivors, which we describe in this chapter. Effective psychosocial interventions, as evidenced in randomized controlled trials, also are available for bolstering breast cancer-related adjustment. We offer directions for research to deepen the understanding of biological, psychological, and social contributors to positive adjustment in the context of breast cancer, as well as suggestions for the development of optimally efficient evidence-based psychosocial interventions for women living with the disease.

  20. Reciprocal Influences Between Maternal Parenting and Child Adjustment in a High-risk Population: A Five-Year Cross-Lagged Analysis of Bidirectional Effects

    OpenAIRE

    Barbot, Baptiste; Crossman, Elizabeth; Hunter, Scott R.; Grigorenko, Elena L.; Luthar, Suniya S.

    2014-01-01

    This study examines longitudinally the bidirectional influences between maternal parenting (behaviors and parenting stress) and mothers' perceptions of their children's adjustment, in a multivariate approach. Data was gathered from 361 low-income mothers (many with psychiatric diagnoses) reporting on their parenting behavior, parenting stress and their child's adjustment, in a two-wave longitudinal study over 5 years. Measurement models were developed to derive four broad parenting constructs...

  1. Risk-Based Therapy for Localized Osteosarcoma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Venkatramani, Rajkumar; Murray, Jeffrey; Helman, Lee; Meyer, William; Hicks, M John; Krance, Robert; Lau, Ching; Jo, Eunji; Chintagumpala, Murali

    2016-03-01

    The outcome of localized osteosarcoma has remained constant over the past 30 years. Histological response to preoperative chemotherapy is the best predictor of outcome. Strategies to alter treatment based on histological response have not resulted in increased survival. Patients with localized osteosarcoma received preoperative chemotherapy with cisplatin, doxorubicin, and methotrexate. Patients whose tumors had a good histological response (≥90% necrosis) continued with the same treatment postoperatively. Patients with poor histological response (treatment-related deaths. Postoperative alkylator intensification with high-dose cyclophosphamide and melphalan in patients with localized osteosarcoma with poor histological response failed to improve survival. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  2. Gout increases risk of fracture: A nationwide population-based cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tzeng, Huey-En; Lin, Che-Chen; Wang, I-Kuan; Huang, Po-Hao; Tsai, Chun-Hao

    2016-08-01

    There is still debate on whether high uric acid increases bone mineral density (BMD) against osteoporotic fracture or bone resorption caused by gout inflammation. This study aimed to evaluate whether gout offers a protective effect on bone health or not. We conducted a nationwide population-based retrospective cohort study to evaluate the association between gout history and risk factors of fracture.A retrospective cohort study was designed using the claim data from Longitudinal Health Insurance Database (LHID). A total of 43,647 subjects with gout and a cohort of 87,294 comparison subjects without gout were matched in terms of age and sex between 2001 and 2009, and the data were followed until December 31, 2011. The primary outcome of the study was the fracture incidence, and the impacts of gout on fracture risks were analyzed using the Cox proportional hazards model.After an 11-year follow-up period, 6992 and 11,412 incidents of fracture were reported in gout and comparison cohorts, respectively. The overall incidence rate of fracture in individuals with gout was nearly 23%, which was higher than that in individuals without gout (252 vs 205 per 10,000 person-years) at an adjusted hazard ratio of 1.17 (95% confidence interval = 1.14-1.21). Age, sex, and fracture-associated comorbidities were adjusted accordingly. As for fracture locations, patients with gout were found at significant higher fracture risks for upper/lower limbs and spine fractures. In gout patient, the user of allopurinol or benzbromarone has significantly lower risk of facture than nonusers.Gout history is considered as a risk factor for fractures, particularly in female individuals and fracture sites located at the spine or upper/lower limbs.

  3. Risk factors for perinatal mortality in Murmansk County, Russia: a registry-based study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Usynina, Anna A.; Grjibovski, Andrej M.; Krettek, Alexandra; Odland, Jon Øyvind; Kudryavtsev, Alexander V.; Anda, Erik Eik

    2017-01-01

    ABSTRACT Background: Factors contributing to perinatal mortality (PM) in Northwest Russia remain unclear. This study investigated possible associations between selected maternal and fetal characteristics and PM based on data from the population-based Murmansk County Birth Registry. Objective: This study investigated possible associations between selected maternal and fetal characteristics and PM based on data from the population-based Murmansk County Birth Registry. Methods: The study population consisted of all live- and stillbirths registered in the Murmansk County Birth Registry during 2006–2011 (n = 52,806). We excluded multiple births, births prior to 22 and after 45 completed weeks of gestation, infants with congenital malformations, and births with missing information regarding gestational age (a total of n = 3,666) and/or the studied characteristics (n = 2,356). Possible associations between maternal socio-demographic and lifestyle characteristics, maternal pre-pregnancy characteristics, pregnancy characteristics, and PM were studied by multivariable logistic regression. Crude and adjusted odds ratios with 95% confidence intervals were calculated. Results: Of the 49,140 births eligible for prevalence analysis, 338 were identified as perinatal deaths (6.9 per 1,000 births). After adjustment for other factors, maternal low education level, prior preterm delivery, spontaneous or induced abortions, antepartum hemorrhage, antenatally detected or suspected fetal growth retardation, and alcohol abuse during pregnancy all significantly increased the risk of PM. We observed a higher risk of PM in unmarried women, as well as overweight or obese mothers. Maternal underweight reduced the risk of PM. Conclusions: Our results suggest that both social and medical factors are important correlates of perinatal mortality in Northwest Russia. PMID:28156197

  4. ADAMTS13 activity as a novel risk factor for incident type 2 diabetes mellitus: a population-based cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Vries, Paul S; van Herpt, Thijs T W; Ligthart, Symen; Hofman, Albert; Ikram, M Arfan; van Hoek, Mandy; Sijbrands, Eric J G; Franco, Oscar H; de Maat, Moniek P M; Leebeek, Frank W G; Dehghan, Abbas

    2017-02-01

    ADAMTS13 is a protease that breaks down von Willebrand factor (VWF) multimers into smaller, less active particles. VWF has been associated with an increased risk of incident type 2 diabetes mellitus. Here, we determine whether ADAMTS13 activity and VWF antigen are associated with incident diabetes. This study included 5176 participants from the Rotterdam Study, a prospective population-based cohort study. Participants were free of diabetes at baseline and followed up for more than 20 years. Cox proportional hazards models were used to examine the association of ADAMTS13 activity and VWF antigen with incident diabetes. ADAMTS13 activity was associated with an increased risk of incident diabetes (HR 1.17 [95% CI 1.08, 1.27]) after adjustment for known risk factors and VWF antigen levels. Although ADAMTS13 activity was positively associated with fasting glucose and insulin, the association with incident diabetes did not change when we adjusted for these covariates. ADAMTS13 activity was also associated with incident prediabetes (defined on the basis of both fasting and non-fasting blood glucose) after adjustment for known risk factors (HR 1.11 [95% CI 1.03, 1.19]), while the VWF antigen level was not. VWF antigen was associated with incident diabetes, but this association was attenuated after adjustment for known risk factors. ADAMTS13 activity appears to be an independent risk factor for incident prediabetes and type 2 diabetes. As the association between ADAMTS13 and diabetes did not appear to be explained by its cleavage of VWF, ADAMTS13 may have an independent role in the development of diabetes.

  5. Predicting 10-Year Risk of Fatal Cardiovascular Disease in Germany: An Update Based on the SCORE-Deutschland Risk Charts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rücker, Viktoria; Keil, Ulrich; Fitzgerald, Anthony P; Malzahn, Uwe; Prugger, Christof; Ertl, Georg; Heuschmann, Peter U; Neuhauser, Hannelore

    2016-01-01

    Estimation of absolute risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD), preferably with population-specific risk charts, has become a cornerstone of CVD primary prevention. Regular recalibration of risk charts may be necessary due to decreasing CVD rates and CVD risk factor levels. The SCORE risk charts for fatal CVD risk assessment were first calibrated for Germany with 1998 risk factor level data and 1999 mortality statistics. We present an update of these risk charts based on the SCORE methodology including estimates of relative risks from SCORE, risk factor levels from the German Health Interview and Examination Survey for Adults 2008–11 (DEGS1) and official mortality statistics from 2012. Competing risks methods were applied and estimates were independently validated. Updated risk charts were calculated based on cholesterol, smoking, systolic blood pressure risk factor levels, sex and 5-year age-groups. The absolute 10-year risk estimates of fatal CVD were lower according to the updated risk charts compared to the first calibration for Germany. In a nationwide sample of 3062 adults aged 40–65 years free of major CVD from DEGS1, the mean 10-year risk of fatal CVD estimated by the updated charts was lower by 29% and the estimated proportion of high risk people (10-year risk > = 5%) by 50% compared to the older risk charts. This recalibration shows a need for regular updates of risk charts according to changes in mortality and risk factor levels in order to sustain the identification of people with a high CVD risk. PMID:27612145

  6. High-risk drinking is associated with a higher risk of diabetes mellitus in Korean men, based on the 2010-2012 KNHANES.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong, Sung-Won; Linton, John A; Shim, Jae-Yong; Kang, Hee-Taik

    2015-05-01

    We examined the association between alcohol-drinking pattern and diabetes mellitus (DM) in Korean adults. This cross-sectional study included 12,486 participants (5551 men and 6935 women) who participated in the 2010-2012 Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. We categorized alcohol-drinking pattern into three groups based on the alcohol-use disorders identification test (AUDIT): low-risk (score: 0-7), intermediate-risk (score: 8-14), and high-risk (score: ≥15). DM was defined as having fasting plasma glucose ≥126 mg/dL or taking glucose-lowering medication, including insulin therapy. In the study population, 25.2% of men and 4.7% of women were high-risk drinkers. DM prevalence was 9.2% in men and 5.4% in women. DM prevalence was 9.0% and 5.7% in the low-risk drinking group, 7.6% and 4.1% in the intermediate-risk drinking group, and 11.2% and 3.5% in the high-risk drinking group in men and women, respectively. Compared to the low-risk drinking group, odds ratios (95% confidence intervals) of men and women in the intermediate-risk drinking group for DM were 1.043 (0.779-1.396) and 1.139 (0.712-1.824), respectively, and 1.480 (1.133-1.933) and 0.827 (0.296-2.311) in the high-risk drinking group, after adjusting for age and other confounding factors. In conclusion, high-risk drinking appears to be associated with a higher risk of DM in men, but not in women.

  7. Risk-Based Computational Prototyping (Briefing Charts)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    2010) Prof Huang, Director  Dr. Beran, PM • Prof Missoum, Mr. Basudhar (UA, Tucson) and Dr. Lambe (MSSRC) – RBDO  with LCO  • Prof Dong and Mr. Gaston...periodic formulation 21 Approved for public release. Reliability‐Based Design Optimization ( RBDO ) Goal: Examine use of...amp   x = response variables d = design variables    aluminum g(x(d, E, M∞ )) > 0; side constraints on d RBDO M∞ Generally, the designed

  8. Risk-based underground pipeline safety management considering corrosion effect.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shin, Seolin; Lee, Gunhak; Ahmed, Usama; Lee, Yongkyu; Na, Jonggeol; Han, Chonghun

    2017-08-18

    Due to the long term usage and irregular maintenance for corrosion checks, catastrophic accidents have been increasing in underground pipelines. In this study, a new safety management methodology of underground pipeline, risk-based pipeline management, is introduced reflecting corrosion effect. First, principle of the risk-based pipeline management is presented compared with an original method, qualitative measure. It is distinguished from the qualitative measure by reflecting societal risk and corrosion in safety management of underground pipeline. And then, it is applied to an existing underground propylene pipeline in Ulsan Industrial Complex, South Korea. The consequence analysis is based on real information, and the frequency analysis reflects degree of corrosion. For calculation of corrosion rate, direct current voltage gradient (DCVG) and close interval potential survey (CIPS) are conducted. As a result of applying the risk-based pipeline management, risk integral is reduced by 56.8% compared to the qualitative measure. Finally, sensitivity analysis is conducted on variables, which affect the risk of the pipeline. This study would contribute to introduce quantitative measure to pipeline management and increase safety of pipeline. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. A Computational Tool for Testing Dose-related Trend Using an Age-adjusted Bootstrap-based Poly-k Test

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hojin Moon

    2006-08-01

    Full Text Available A computational tool for testing for a dose-related trend and/or a pairwise difference in the incidence of an occult tumor via an age-adjusted bootstrap-based poly-k test and the original poly-k test is presented in this paper. The poly-k test (Bailer and Portier 1988 is a survival-adjusted Cochran-Armitage test, which achieves robustness to effects of differential mortality across dose groups. The original poly-k test is asymptotically standard normal under the null hypothesis. However, the asymptotic normality is not valid if there is a deviation from the tumor onset distribution that is assumed in this test. Our age-adjusted bootstrap-based poly-k test assesses the significance of assumed asymptotic normal tests and investigates an empirical distribution of the original poly-k test statistic using an age-adjusted bootstrap method. A tumor of interest is an occult tumor for which the time to onset is not directly observable. Since most of the animal carcinogenicity studies are designed with a single terminal sacrifice, the present tool is applicable to rodent tumorigenicity assays that have a single terminal sacrifice. The present tool takes input information simply from a user screen and reports testing results back to the screen through a user-interface. The computational tool is implemented in C/C++ and is applied to analyze a real data set as an example. Our tool enables the FDA and the pharmaceutical industry to implement a statistical analysis of tumorigenicity data from animal bioassays via our age-adjusted bootstrap-based poly-k test and the original poly-k test which has been adopted by the National Toxicology Program as its standard statistical test.

  10. Organophosphate Poisoning and Subsequent Acute Kidney Injury Risk: A Nationwide Population-Based Cohort Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Feng-You; Chen, Wei-Kung; Lin, Cheng-Li; Lai, Ching-Yuan; Wu, Yung-Shun; Lin, I-Ching; Kao, Chia-Hung

    2015-11-01

    Small numbers of the papers have studied the association between organophosphate (OP) poisoning and the subsequent acute kidney injury (AKI). Therefore, we used the National Health Insurance Research Database (NHIRD) to study whether patients with OP poisoning are associated with a higher risk to have subsequent AKI.The retrospective cohort study comprised patients aged ≥20 years with OP poisoning and hospitalized diagnosis during 2000-2011 (N = 8924). Each OP poisoning patient was frequency-matched to 4 control patients based on age, sex, index year, and comorbidities of diabetes, hypertension, hyperlipidemia, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, coronary artery disease, and stroke (N = 35,696). We conducted Cox proportional hazard regression analysis to estimate the effects of OP poisoning on AKI risk.The overall incidence of AKI was higher in the patients with OP poisoning than in the controls (4.85 vs 3.47/1000 person-years). After adjustment for age, sex, comorbidity, and interaction terms, patients with OP poisoning were associated with a 6.17-fold higher risk of AKI compared with the comparison cohort. Patients with highly severe OP poisoning were associated with a substantially increased risk of AKI.The study found OP poisoning is associated with increased risk of subsequent AKI. Future studies are encouraged to evaluate whether long-term effects exist and the best guideline to prevent the continuously impaired renal function.

  11. [Systemic cardiovascular risk assessment. Conventional or eye fundus-based?].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolf, A; Kernt, M; Kampik, A; Neubauer, A S

    2010-09-01

    Several systemic cardiovascular (CV) risk assessment algorithms exist, of which the ESC HeartScore, Framingham and PROCAM are the most frequently applied in Germany. The risk estimates generated differ and take a number of different risk factors into consideration. Due to existing homology of retinal vessels and brain vessels, eye fundus examination is a promising approach to improving risk prediction. Large cohort studies investigated retinal vascular changes, including arteriovenous ratio, as well as signs of retinopathy such as cotton-wool spots, microaneurysms, or retinal hemorrhages for their ability to predict systemic cardiovascular events. While signs of retinopathy proved to have high predictive power (but are rarely diagnosed,) the retinal vascular changes investigated could contribute little to enhancing systemic CV risk prediction. A number of new and promising approaches based on static and dynamic retinal analysis exist, but still need to be validated prospectively.

  12. A risk-based framework for biomedical data sharing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dankar, Fida K; Badji, Radja

    2017-02-01

    The problem of biomedical data sharing is a form of gambling; on one hand it incurs the risk of privacy violations and on the other it stands to profit from knowledge discovery. In general, the risk of granting data access to a user depends heavily upon the data requested, the purpose for the access, the user requesting the data (user motives) and the security of the user's environment. While traditional manual biomedical data sharing processes (based on institutional review boards) are lengthy and demanding, the automated ones (known as honest broker systems) disregard the individualities of different requests and offer "one-size-fits-all" solutions to all data requestors. In this manuscript, we propose a conceptual risk-aware data sharing system; the system brings the concept of risk, from all contextual information surrounding a data request, into the data disclosure decision module. The decision module, in turn, imposes mitigation measures to counter the calculated risk.

  13. Quantitative health risk assessment of Cryptosporidium in rivers of southern China based on continuous monitoring.

    Science.gov (United States)

    An, Wei; Zhang, Dongqing; Xiao, Shumin; Yu, Jianwei; Yang, Min

    2011-06-01

    The concentrations of Cryptosporidium in the source water of several cities of Zhejiang Province, China were determined to be in the range of 0-17 oocysts/10 L in the rainy season in 2008, with a mean value of 7 oocysts/10 L. Based on the investigation data, comprehensive risk assessment of Cryptosporidium infection was performed by considering different water intake routes as well as water consumption. Intakes of unboiled tapwater (including drinking and tooth-brushing and food and dish washing) and source water (through swimming in rivers) were estimated to be 2.59-25.9 and 0.32-0.74 L/year-person, respectively. The mortality due to Cryptosporidium infection for people in this region, excluding HIV-infected patients, was calculated as 0-0.0146 per 10(5) persons using a conditional probability formula. Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were used to quantify the risk of Cryptosporidium infection, for which uncertainty was analyzed. For people who consumed conventionally treated water, the DALYs due to Cryptosporidium infection were 6.51 per 10(5) (95% CI: 2.16 × 10(-5)-22.35 × 10(-5)) persons, which were higher than a risk judged acceptable by some (1.97 × 10(-5) DALYs per year), and the risk for those consuming ozone-treated water became 0.0689 × 10(-5) DALYs per year. The major risk of infection resulted from swimming in the river. This study provides a method to establish the risk of Cryptosporidium infection and optimize the scheme for reducing the risk effectively, which is useful for the modification of water quality standards based on cost utility analysis given use of DALYs.

  14. Risk-Based Decision Making for Deterioration Processes Using POMDP

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jannie Sønderkær; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2015-01-01

    This paper proposes a method for risk-based decision making for maintenance of deteriorating components, based on the partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP). Unlike most methods, the decision polices do not need to be stationary and can vary according to seasons and near the end of ...

  15. Benefits of Risk Based Inspection Planning for Offshore Structures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Straub, D.M.; Goyet, J.; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2006-01-01

    The economical benefits of applying risk-based inspection planning (RBI) for offshore structures subject to fatigue are evaluated based on experiences from past industrial projects. To this end, the factors influencing the cost of inspection, repair and failure of structures are discussed......, the financial benefit of RBI is assessed....

  16. Sustainability and Risk: Towards a Risk-Based Sustainability Rating for Real Estate Investments

    OpenAIRE

    Erika Meins; Daniel Sager

    2013-01-01

    Purpose - To identify the relative contribution of selected sustainability features to property value risk with the aim of generating a risk-based weighting system for a property sustainability rating.Approach - For a given set of sustainability features, a discounted cash flow (DCF) model is used to derive the weights. The anticipated demand for each sustainability feature is described by three future states of nature. Subjective probability distributions describe the occurrence of the futur...

  17. Risk-based thinking in the Production Process Using

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lucie Hrbackova

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The present article has focused on risk-based thinking in the production process according to the updated ISO/FDIS 9001/2015 Quality Management System – Requirements. One of the crucial changes of this update is incorporation of the risk-based thinking into quality management system of organizations. This article deals with this current issue of correct understanding of the actions to address risksin the processes that influence the customers. On the basis of a new updated standard and case studies focused on application of the method of the FMEA Process (Failure Mode and Effects Analysis as well as the method of Quality Assurance Matrixin the production process, suitability of using these methods for risk assessment in the production process was assessed. The result is utilisation of these methods of FMEA and QAM for identification, analysis and risk assessment in the production process taking into consideration requirements of the respective standard.

  18. Adjustment computations spatial data analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Ghilani, Charles D

    2011-01-01

    the complete guide to adjusting for measurement error-expanded and updated no measurement is ever exact. Adjustment Computations updates a classic, definitive text on surveying with the latest methodologies and tools for analyzing and adjusting errors with a focus on least squares adjustments, the most rigorous methodology available and the one on which accuracy standards for surveys are based. This extensively updated Fifth Edition shares new information on advances in modern software and GNSS-acquired data. Expanded sections offer a greater amount of computable problems and their worked solu

  19. Lymphatic filariasis transmission risk map of India, based on a geo-environmental risk model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sabesan, Shanmugavelu; Raju, Konuganti Hari Kishan; Subramanian, Swaminathan; Srivastava, Pradeep Kumar; Jambulingam, Purushothaman

    2013-09-01

    The strategy adopted by a global program to interrupt transmission of lymphatic filariasis (LF) is mass drug administration (MDA) using chemotherapy. India also followed this strategy by introducing MDA in the historically known endemic areas. All other areas, which remained unsurveyed, were presumed to be nonendemic and left without any intervention. Therefore, identification of LF transmission risk areas in the entire country has become essential so that they can be targeted for intervention. A geo-environmental risk model (GERM) developed earlier was used to create a filariasis transmission risk map for India. In this model, a Standardized Filariasis Transmission Risk Index (SFTRI, based on geo-environmental risk variables) was used as a predictor of transmission risk. The relationship between SFTRI and endemicity (historically known) of an area was quantified by logistic regression analysis. The quantified relationship was validated by assessing the filarial antigenemia status of children living in the unsurveyed areas through a ground truth study. A significant positive relationship was observed between SFTRI and the endemicity of an area. Overall, the model prediction of filarial endemic status of districts was found to be correct in 92.8% of the total observations. Thus, among the 190 districts hitherto unsurveyed, as many as 113 districts were predicted to be at risk, and the remaining at no risk. The GERM developed on geographic information system (GIS) platform is useful for LF spatial delimitation on a macrogeographic/regional scale. Furthermore, the risk map developed will be useful for the national LF elimination program by identifying areas at risk for intervention and for undertaking surveillance in no-risk areas.

  20. Big data based fraud risk management at Alibaba

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jidong Chen

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available With development of mobile internet and finance, fraud risk comes in all shapes and sizes. This paper is to introduce the Fraud Risk Management at Alibaba under big data. Alibaba has built a fraud risk monitoring and management system based on real-time big data processing and intelligent risk models. It captures fraud signals directly from huge amount data of user behaviors and network, analyzes them in real-time using machine learning, and accurately predicts the bad users and transactions. To extend the fraud risk prevention ability to external customers, Alibaba also built up a big data based fraud prevention product called AntBuckler. AntBuckler aims to identify and prevent all flavors of malicious behaviors with flexibility and intelligence for online merchants and banks. By combining large amount data of Alibaba and customers', AntBuckler uses the RAIN score engine to quantify risk levels of users or transactions for fraud prevention. It also has a user-friendly visualization UI with risk scores, top reasons and fraud connections.

  1. Market-Based Price-Risk Management for Coffee Producers

    OpenAIRE

    Sushil Mohan

    2007-01-01

    Coffee is characterised by high levels of price fluctuation, which exposes coffee producers to price risk. Coffee is widely traded in international commodity futures markets. This offers scope for producers to mange their price risk by hedging on these markets. The hedging mechanism proposed is based on the use of put options. The paper uses historical data of actual coffee put options contracts to estimate the costs of the mechanism; the benefits are inferred from field evidence. It emerges ...

  2. Suicide risk in relation to level of urbanicity - a population-based linkage study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Qin, Ping

    2005-01-01

    from various Danish longitudinal registers. Data were analysed with conditional logistic regression. RESULTS: This study confirms that people living in more urbanized areas are at a higher risk of suicide than their counterparts in less urbanized areas. However, this excess risk is largely eliminated...... when adjusted for personal marital, income, and ethnic differences; it is even reversed when further adjusted for psychiatric status. Moreover, the impact of urbanicity on suicide risk differs significantly by sex and across age. Urban living reduces suicide risk significantly among men, especially...

  3. Model-based benefit-risk assessment: can Archimedes help?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krishna, R

    2009-03-01

    In December 2008, the US Food and Drug Administration issued a new draft Guidance for Industry on Diabetes Mellitus--evaluating cardiovascular risk in new antidiabetic therapies to treat Type 2 diabetes. This guidance comes at a time when recent discussions have focused on delineation of cardiovascular risk reduction for new antidiabetic drugs. Computational tools that can enable early prediction of cardiovascular risk are reviewed with specific reference to Archimedes (Kaiser Permanente), with an aim of proposing a model-based solution and enabling decisions to be made as early as possible in the drug development value chain.

  4. Endometrial cancer risk prediction including serum-based biomarkers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fortner, Renée T; Hüsing, Anika; Kühn, Tilman;

    2017-01-01

    Endometrial cancer risk prediction models including lifestyle, anthropometric, and reproductive factors have limited discrimination. Adding biomarker data to these models may improve predictive capacity; to our knowledge, this has not been investigated for endometrial cancer. Using a nested case......-control study within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort, we investigated the improvement in discrimination gained by adding serum biomarker concentrations to risk estimates derived from an existing risk prediction model based on epidemiologic factors. Serum...... concentrations of sex steroid hormones, metabolic markers, growth factors, adipokines, and cytokines were evaluated in a step-wise backward selection process; biomarkers were retained at pdiscrimination was assessed using...

  5. AHP-FCE Based Physical Exercise Risk Evaluation Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WU Yi-zhi; DING Yong-sheng; XU Hong-an

    2007-01-01

    Exercise is a highly proven and beneficial health promotion modality. But it is very difficult to determine whether the person during exercise is safe. A unique and comprehensive approach is proposed to perform physical exercise risk evaluation (PERE), in which personalized factors are determined basing on grey correlation analysis, analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method is used to structure the large numbers of risk factors, and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation (FCE) is applied to fuzzify the factors and compute the exercise risk level. Finally, an actual calculation example is used to verify the feasibility of the method.

  6. Increased Risk of Chronic Kidney Disease in Rheumatoid Arthritis Associated with Cardiovascular Complications - A National Population-Based Cohort Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hsien-Yi Chiu

    Full Text Available There have been few large population-based studies of the association between rheumatoid arthritis (RA and chronic kidney disease (CKD and glomerulonephritis. This nationwide cohort study investigated the risks of developing CKD and glomerulonephritis in patients with RA, and the associated risks for cardiovascular complications.From the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database, we identified a study cohort of 12,579 patients with RA and randomly selected 37,737 subjects without RA as a control cohort. Each subject was individually followed for up for 5 years, and the risk of CKD was analyzed using Cox proportional hazards regression models.During the follow-up period, after adjusting for traditional cardiovascular risk factors RA was independently associated with a significantly increased risk of CKD (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.31; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.23-1.40 and glomerulonephritis (aHR 1.55; 95% CI 1.37-1.76. Increased risk of CKD was also associated with the use of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs, cyclosporine, glucocorticoids, mycophenolate mofetil, and cyclophosphamide. Patients with comorbidities had even greater increased risk of CKD. Moreover, RA patients with concurrent CKD had significantly higher likelihood of developing ischemic heart disease and stroke.RA patients had higher risk of developing CKD and glomerulonephritis, independent of traditional cardiovascular risk factors. Their increased risk of CKD may be attributed to glomerulonephritis, chronic inflammation, comorbidities, and renal toxicity of antirheumatic drugs. Careful monitoring of renal function in RA patients and tight control of their comorbid diseases and cardiovascular risk factors are warranted.

  7. Application of hazard analysis and critical control point methodology and risk-based grading to consumer food safety surveys.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Røssvoll, Elin Halbach; Ueland, Øydis; Hagtvedt, Therese; Jacobsen, Eivind; Lavik, Randi; Langsrud, Solveig

    2012-09-01

    Traditionally, consumer food safety survey responses have been classified as either "right" or "wrong" and food handling practices that are associated with high risk of infection have been treated in the same way as practices with lower risks. In this study, a risk-based method for consumer food safety surveys has been developed, and HACCP (hazard analysis and critical control point) methodology was used for selecting relevant questions. We conducted a nationally representative Web-based survey (n = 2,008), and to fit the self-reported answers we adjusted a risk-based grading system originally developed for observational studies. The results of the survey were analyzed both with the traditional "right" and "wrong" classification and with the risk-based grading system. The results using the two methods were very different. Only 5 of the 10 most frequent food handling violations were among the 10 practices associated with the highest risk. These 10 practices dealt with different aspects of heat treatment (lacking or insufficient), whereas the majority of the most frequent violations involved storing food at room temperature for too long. Use of the risk-based grading system for survey responses gave a more realistic picture of risks associated with domestic food handling practices. The method highlighted important violations and minor errors, which are performed by most people and are not associated with significant risk. Surveys built on a HACCP-based approach with risk-based grading will contribute to a better understanding of domestic food handling practices and will be of great value for targeted information and educational activities.

  8. 基于自适应临界状态的交通流运营安全评价%Safety Audit of Traffic Flows Based on Self-adjustable Critical State

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    蒋锐; 郭忠印; 孔令旗

    2011-01-01

    考虑实际交通流中车辆驾驶员的主观能动性,改进交通冲突技术机械式假设的不足,提出交通流自适应临界状态概念.构建车速差、减速度差和行程时间差等3个模型,量化交通流运营状态的自适应“能力”.以安全车头时距和实际车头时距的差值,评价实时交通流运营安全性.通过实验分析,结果表明基于自适应临界状态的运营风险与历史事故数之间存在良好的相关性.%Considering characteristic of driver subjective in real traffic flows, self-adjustable critical state is put forward firstly conquering mechanical-hypothesis weakness of traffic conflict. Based on differences of speed/deceleration/travel time, analysis models are found to appraise ability of self-adjustable traffic flows. In according to discrepancy between safety headway and realistic headway, traffic flow risk index is introduced to audit real-time traffic safety. Experiment results showed that the relation between traffic flow risk and historical accidents is well.

  9. Elevated plasma vitamin B12 levels and risk of venous thromboembolism among cancer patients: A population-based cohort study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arendt, Johan Frederik Håkonsen; Farkas, Dora Kormendine; Pedersen, Lars

    2017-01-01

    Introduction: Both venous thromboembolism (VTE) and high plasma vitamin B12 levels (cobalamin, Cbl) are markers of occult cancer and aggressive cancer with a poor prognosis. In this population-based cohort study, we assessed VTE risk among cancer patients with high plasma Cbl levels. Materials...... and categorised as either cancer-associated if no other provoking factors were present before VTE or provoked by other risk factors (surgery, trauma, or pregnancy). We calculated cumulative incidence proportions and adjusted hazard ratios computed from Cox regression analysis (reference: plasma Cbl of 200...

  10. Risk-based decision making and risk management of European Union regional programs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michalopoulos Evangelos

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a generalized method for management decision making incorporating risk assessment techniques. The risk based decision making methodology is applied to European Union expenditure programs used to implement its regional policy, such as the community support framework, community initiatives, special initiatives and other European policies. An example is presented for the development of an audit (inspection program in the region of West Macedonia, Greece, during the implementation of the 3rd Community Structural Support Framework Operational Program. The generic nature of the method permits its use in the management of similar European regional programs in Greece and other European countries. It is also applicable to many other industries interested in applying risk-based management decisions to physical or process based systems. .

  11. Risk profiling of cattle farms as a potential tool in risk-based surveillance for Mycobacterium bovis infection among cattle in tuberculosis-free areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ribeiro-Lima, Joao; Schwabenlander, Stacey; Oakes, Michael; Thompson, Beth; Wells, Scott J

    2016-06-15

    OBJECTIVE To develop a cattle herd risk-profiling system that could potentially inform risk-based surveillance strategies for Mycobacterium bovis infection in cattle and provide information that could be used to help direct resource allocation by a state agency for this purpose. DESIGN Cross-sectional study. SAMPLE Records for any size movement (importation) of cattle into Minnesota from other US states during 2009 (n = 7,185) and 2011 (8,107). PROCEDURES Data from certificates of veterinary inspection were entered into a spreadsheet. Movement data were summarized at premises and county levels, and for each level, the distribution of cattle moved and number of movements were evaluated. Risk profiling (assessment and categorization of risk for disease introduction) for each import movement was performed on the basis of known risk factors. Latent class analysis was used to assign movements to risk classifications with adjustment on the basis of expert opinions from personnel knowledgeable about bovine tuberculosis; these data were used to classify premises as very high, high, medium, or low risk for disease introduction. RESULTS In each year, approximately 1,500 premises imported cattle, typically beef and feeder types, with the peak of import movements during the fall season. The risk model identified 4 risk classes for cattle movements. Approximately 500 of the estimated 27,406 (2%) cattle premises in Minnesota were in the very high or high risk groups for either year; greatest density of these premises was in the southeast and southwest regions of the state. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE A risk-profiling approach was developed that can be applied in targeted surveillance efforts for bovine tuberculosis, particularly in disease-free areas.

  12. Regression equations for estimation of annual peak-streamflow frequency for undeveloped watersheds in Texas using an L-moment-based, PRESS-minimized, residual-adjusted approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asquith, William H.; Roussel, Meghan C.

    2009-01-01

    Annual peak-streamflow frequency estimates are needed for flood-plain management; for objective assessment of flood risk; for cost-effective design of dams, levees, and other flood-control structures; and for design of roads, bridges, and culverts. Annual peak-streamflow frequency represents the peak streamflow for nine recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, 200, 250, and 500 years. Common methods for estimation of peak-streamflow frequency for ungaged or unmonitored watersheds are regression equations for each recurrence interval developed for one or more regions; such regional equations are the subject of this report. The method is based on analysis of annual peak-streamflow data from U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations (stations). Beginning in 2007, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Texas Department of Transportation and in partnership with Texas Tech University, began a 3-year investigation concerning the development of regional equations to estimate annual peak-streamflow frequency for undeveloped watersheds in Texas. The investigation focuses primarily on 638 stations with 8 or more years of data from undeveloped watersheds and other criteria. The general approach is explicitly limited to the use of L-moment statistics, which are used in conjunction with a technique of multi-linear regression referred to as PRESS minimization. The approach used to develop the regional equations, which was refined during the investigation, is referred to as the 'L-moment-based, PRESS-minimized, residual-adjusted approach'. For the approach, seven unique distributions are fit to the sample L-moments of the data for each of 638 stations and trimmed means of the seven results of the distributions for each recurrence interval are used to define the station specific, peak-streamflow frequency. As a first iteration of regression, nine weighted-least-squares, PRESS-minimized, multi-linear regression equations are computed using the watershed

  13. Marketing Risk Management of Palm Oil Based Biodiesel Agroindustry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I Gusti Bagus Udayana

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Biodiesel is fuel generates from vegetable oils that have properties similar to diesel oil. The advantages of biodiesel compared to diesel is an environmentally friendly fuel because it produces much lower emissions (sulfur free, low smoke number in accordance with global issues, higher cetane number (> 57 so that the combustion efficiency is better than diesel, lubrication properties of the piston engine; biodegradable, a renewable energy because it is made from natural materials, and improve the independence of fuel supply because it can be produced locally. The purpose of this research is to design the risk management decision support system for agro-industry development biodiesel of oil palm-based. Determination of objectives and risk management strategies using the used to obtain an alternative value in the aspect of marketing. This research resulted in a decision support system that is useful to help decision makers in addressing the risk of agro-bio-diesel. Risk management model is designed in a decision support system  (DSS, can be used by industrial users and investors in the field of biodiesel. DSS software development using Microsoft Visual Basic Version 6.0 consists of three main components namely database management system, knowledge base management system and model base management system. Model base management system consists of risk marketing analysis.

  14. A simple data base for identification of risk profiles

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Munganahalli, D.

    1996-12-31

    Sedco Forex is a drilling contractor that operates approximately 80 rigs on land and offshore worldwide. The HSE management system developed by Sedco Forex is an effort to prevent accidents and minimize losses. An integral part of the HSE management system is establishing risk profiles and thereby minimizing risk and reducing loss exposures. Risk profiles are established based on accident reports, potential accident reports and other risk identification reports (RIR) like the Du Pont STOP system. A rig could fill in as many as 30 accident reports, 30 potential accident reports and 500 STOP cards each year. Statistics are important for an HSE management system, since they are indicators of success or failure of HSE systems. It is however difficult to establish risk profiles based on statistical information, unless tools are available at the rig site to aid with the analysis. Risk profiles are then used to identify important areas in the operation that may require specific attention to minimize the loss exposure. Programs to address the loss exposure can then be identified and implemented with either a local or corporate approach. In January 1995, Sedco Forex implemented a uniform HSE Database on all the rigs worldwide. In one year companywide, the HSE database would contain information on approximately 500 accident and potential accident reports, and 10,000 STOP cards. This paper demonstrates the salient features of the database and describes how it has helped in establishing key risk profiles. It also shows a recent example of how risk profiles have been established at the corporate level and used to identify the key contributing factors to hands and finger injuries. Based on this information, a campaign was launched to minimize the frequency of occurrence and associated loss attributed to hands and fingers accidents.

  15. Use of proton pump inhibitors and the risk of listeriosis. A nationwide registry-based case-control study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kvistholm Jensen, Anne; Simonsen, Jacob; Ethelberg, Steen

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Recent studies suggest that proton pump inhibitors (PPIs) may increase the risk for listeriosis. We aimed to investigate a potential association in cases of non-pregnancy associated listeriosis, using registry data. METHODS: We conducted a population-based case-control study using...... Danish health registries. Case-patients (n=721) were defined as patients ≥45 years notified with listeriosis, July 1994 to December 2012. We selected 34,800 control-subjects by risk-set sampling. Controls were individually matched for age, sex, municipality and time. Person data on use of PPI and other...... conditional logistic regression, matched odds ratios (ORs) adjusted for CMI and confounders were estimated. RESULTS: The adjusted OR with current use of PPIs for development of listeriosis was 2.81 (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.14-3.69). PPI usage up to 90 days before the index date remained statistically...

  16. Risk and Protective Factors for Poor School Adjustment in Lesbian, Gay, and Bisexual (LGB) High School Youth: Variable and Person-Centered Analyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murdock, Tamera B.; Bolch, Megan B.

    2005-01-01

    This study examined the relations between school climate and school adjustment among 101 lesbian, gay, and bisexual (LGB) high school students and the moderating influence of social support on those relations. Students completed surveys to assess three aspects of the school climate (the school's exclusion/inclusion of LGB people, personal…

  17. Teacher-Student Relationships among Behaviorally At-Risk African American Youth from Low-Income Backgrounds: Student Perceptions, Teacher Perceptions, and Socioemotional Adjustment Correlates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murray, Christopher; Zvoch, Keith

    2011-01-01

    This investigation examines teacher-student relationships among African American youth from low-income backgrounds (N = 193). Students and their teachers completed measures of teacher-student relationship quality and measures pertaining to emotional, behavioral, and school-related adjustment. Results indicated that African American youth who fell…

  18. Reciprocal influences between maternal parenting and child adjustment in a high-risk population: a 5-year cross-lagged analysis of bidirectional effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barbot, Baptiste; Crossman, Elizabeth; Hunter, Scott R; Grigorenko, Elena L; Luthar, Suniya S

    2014-09-01

    This study examines longitudinally the bidirectional influences between maternal parenting (behaviors and parenting stress) and mothers' perceptions of their children's adjustment, in a multivariate approach. Data was gathered from 361 low-income mothers (many with psychiatric diagnoses) reporting on their parenting behavior, parenting stress, and their child's adjustment, in a 2-wave longitudinal study over 5 years. Measurement models were developed to derive 4 broad parenting constructs (involvement, control, rejection, and stress) and 3 child adjustment constructs (internalizing problems, externalizing problems, and social competence). After measurement invariance of these constructs was confirmed across relevant groups and over time, both measurement models were integrated in a single crossed-lagged regression analysis of latent constructs. Multiple reciprocal influences were observed between parenting and perceived child adjustment over time: Externalizing and internalizing problems in children were predicted by baseline maternal parenting behaviors, and child social competence was found to reduce parental stress and increase parental involvement and appropriate monitoring. These findings on the motherhood experience are discussed in light of recent research efforts to understand mother-child bidirectional influences and their potential for practical applications.

  19. Risk-based audit selection of dairy farms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Asseldonk, M A P M; Velthuis, A G J

    2014-02-01

    Dairy farms are audited in the Netherlands on numerous process standards. Each farm is audited once every 2 years. Increasing demands for cost-effectiveness in farm audits can be met by introducing risk-based principles. This implies targeting subpopulations with a higher risk of poor process standards. To select farms for an audit that present higher risks, a statistical analysis was conducted to test the relationship between the outcome of farm audits and bulk milk laboratory results before the audit. The analysis comprised 28,358 farm audits and all conducted laboratory tests of bulk milk samples 12 mo before the audit. The overall outcome of each farm audit was classified as approved or rejected. Laboratory results included somatic cell count (SCC), total bacterial count (TBC), antimicrobial drug residues (ADR), level of butyric acid spores (BAB), freezing point depression (FPD), level of free fatty acids (FFA), and cleanliness of the milk (CLN). The bulk milk laboratory results were significantly related to audit outcomes. Rejected audits are likely to occur on dairy farms with higher mean levels of SCC, TBC, ADR, and BAB. Moreover, in a multivariable model, maxima for TBC, SCC, and FPD as well as standard deviations for TBC and FPD are risk factors for negative audit outcomes. The efficiency curve of a risk-based selection approach, on the basis of the derived regression results, dominated the current random selection approach. To capture 25, 50, or 75% of the population with poor process standards (i.e., audit outcome of rejected), respectively, only 8, 20, or 47% of the population had to be sampled based on a risk-based selection approach. Milk quality information can thus be used to preselect high-risk farms to be audited more frequently.

  20. Risk-Based Operation and Maintenance Using Bayesian Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jannie Jessen; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2011-01-01

    This paper describes how risk-based decision making can be used for maintenance planning of components exposed to degradation such as fatigue in offshore wind turbines. In fatigue models, large epistemic uncertainties are usually present. These can be reduced if monitoring results are used to upd...... to update the models, and hereby a better basis for decision making is obtained. An application example shows how a Bayesian network model can be used as a tool for updating the model and assist in risk-based decision making....

  1. Practical risk-based decision making: Good decisions made efficiently

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Haire, M.J. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States); Guthrie, V.; Walker, D. [JBF Associates, Inc., Knoxville, TN (United States); Singer, R. [Westinghouse Savannah River Co., Aiken, SC (United States)

    1995-12-01

    The Robotics and Process Systems Division of the Oak Ridge National Laboratory and the Westinghouse Savannah River Company have teamed with JBF Associates, Inc. to address risk-based robotic planning. The objective of the project is to provide systematic, risk-based relative comparisons of competing alternatives for solving clean-up problems at DOE facilities. This paper presents the methodology developed, describes the software developed to efficiently apply the methodology, and discusses the results of initial applications for DOE. The paper also addresses current work in applying the approach to problems in other industries (including an example from the hydrocarbon processing industry).

  2. Methods for Risk-Based Planning of O&M of Wind Turbines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jannie Sønderkær Nielsen

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available In order to make wind energy more competitive, the big expenses for operation and maintenance must be reduced. Consistent decisions that minimize the expected costs can be made based on risk-based methods. Such methods have been implemented for maintenance planning for oil and gas structures, but for offshore wind turbines, the conditions are different and the methods need to be adjusted accordingly. This paper gives an overview of various approaches to solve the decision problem: methods with decision rules based on observed variables, a method with decision rules based on the probability of failure, a method based on limited memory influence diagrams and a method based on the partially observable Markov decision process. The methods with decision rules based on observed variables are easy to use, but can only take the most recent observation into account, when a decision is made. The other methods can take more information into account, and especially, the method based on the Markov decision process is very flexible and accurate. A case study shows that the Markov decision process and decision rules based on the probability of failure are equally good and give lower costs compared to decision rules based on observed variables.

  3. A new adjustable gains for second order sliding mode control of saturated DFIG-based wind turbine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bounadja, E.; Djahbar, A.; Taleb, R.; Boudjema, Z.

    2017-02-01

    The control of Doubly-Fed induction generator (DFIG), used in wind energy conversion, has been given a great deal of interest. Frequently, this control has been dealt with ignoring the magnetic saturation effect in the DFIG model. The aim of the present work is twofold: firstly, the magnetic saturation effect is accounted in the control design model; secondly, a new second order sliding mode control scheme using adjustable-gains (AG-SOSMC) is proposed to control the DFIG via its rotor side converter. This scheme allows the independent control of the generated active and reactive power. Conventionally, the second order sliding mode control (SOSMC) applied to the DFIG, utilize the super-twisting algorithm with fixed gains. In the proposed AG-SOSMC, a simple means by which the controller can adjust its behavior is used. For that, a linear function is used to represent the variation in gain as a function of the absolute value of the discrepancy between the reference rotor current and its measured value. The transient DFIG speed response using the aforementioned characteristic is compared with the one determined by using the conventional SOSMC controller with fixed gains. Simulation results show, accurate dynamic performances, quicker transient response and more accurate control are achieved for different operating conditions.

  4. Association between television viewing and the risk of metabolic syndrome in a community-based population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liu Chiu-Shong

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background As a result of metabolic syndrome becoming an important issue during recent decades, many studies have explored the risk factors contributing to its development. However, less attention has been paid to the risk associated with sedentary behavior, especially television viewing. This study examined the association between television viewing time and the risk of having metabolic syndrome in a population of Taiwanese subjects. Methods This community-based cross-sectional study included 2,353 subjects (1,144 men and 1,209 women aged 40 and over from October, 2004 to September, 2005. Information about the time spent watching TV was obtained using a self-administered questionnaire. The definition of metabolic syndrome was according to the Third Report of the National Cholesterol Education Program's Adult Treatment Panel modified for Asians. Results Compared to subjects who viewed TV 20 hr/week had a 1.50-fold (95% confidence intervals (CI: 1.10, 2.03 risk for men and a 1.93-fold (95% CI: 1.37, 2.71 risk for women of having metabolic syndrome, after adjusting for physical activity and other covariates. Stratifying by the three categories of total activity levels, TV viewing time > 20 hr/week was found to still hold a significant risk for having metabolic syndrome in the lowest of the three categories of total activity level for men and in all three categories of total activity level for women. Conclusion The findings suggest that TV viewing is an independent risk factor associated with metabolic syndrome in Taiwanese people.

  5. Risk factors associated with symptomatic cholelithiasis in Taiwan: a population-based study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hung, Shih-Chang; Liao, Kuan-Fu; Lai, Shih-Wei; Li, Chia-Ing; Chen, Wen-Chi

    2011-10-17

    Cholelithiasis has become a major health problem in Taiwan. The predominant type of gallstone found in Asian populations differs from that in the West, indicating possible differences in the etiology and risk factors for cholelithiasis. The aim of this study is to investigate the risk factors for cholelithiasis using data representative of the general population. We performed a population-based, case-control study in which we analyzed medical data for 3725 patients newly diagnosed with cholelithiasis and 11175 gender- and age-matched controls with no history of cholelithiasis, using information obtained from the 2005 Registry for Beneficiaries of the National Health Insurance Research Database. Coexisting medical conditions were included in the analysis. Relative risks were estimated by adjusted odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) using a multivariate logistic regression analysis. After controlling for the other covariates, multivariate logistic regression analysis identified the following as risk factors for cholelithiasis (in descending order of contribution): Among all patients - hepatitis C (OR = 2.78), cirrhosis (OR = 2.47), hepatitis B (OR = 2.00), obesity (OR = 1.89), and hyperlipidemia (OR = 1.54); Among women - hepatitis C (OR = 3.05), cirrhosis (OR = 1.92), obesity (OR = 1.91), menopause (OR = 1.61), hepatitis B (OR = 1.54), and hyperlipidemia (OR = 1.49). Diabetes mellitus appeared to have a marked influence on the development of cholelithiasis but was not identified as a significant independent risk factor for cholelithiasis. The risk factors for cholelithiasis were obesity, hyperlipidemia, hepatitis B infection, hepatitis C infection, and cirrhosis in both genders, and menopause in females. Despite differences in the predominate type of gallstone in Asian versus Western populations, we identified no unique risk factors among the population of Taiwan.

  6. Convexity Adjustments for ATS Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Murgoci, Agatha; Gaspar, Raquel M.

    Practitioners are used to value a broad class of exotic interest rate derivatives simply by preforming for what is known as convexity adjustments (or convexity corrections). We start by exploiting the relations between various interest rate models and their connections to measure changes. As a re......Practitioners are used to value a broad class of exotic interest rate derivatives simply by preforming for what is known as convexity adjustments (or convexity corrections). We start by exploiting the relations between various interest rate models and their connections to measure changes....... As a result we classify convexity adjustments into forward adjustments and swaps adjustments. We, then, focus on affine term structure (ATS) models and, in this context, conjecture convexity adjustments should be related of affine functionals. In the case of forward adjustments, we show how to obtain exact...... formulas. Concretely for LIBOR in arrears (LIA) contracts, we derive the system of Riccatti ODE-s one needs to compute to obtain the exact adjustment. Based upon the ideas of Schrager and Pelsser (2006) we are also able to derive general swap adjustments useful, in particular, when dealing with constant...

  7. Developing a regional risk based spill management program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McCoy, D. [Husky Oil Operations Ltd., Calgary, AB (Canada); Freeman, J.; Lowen, H.A.; Ag, A. [Matrix Solutions Inc., Edmonton, AB (Canada)

    2004-07-01

    Husky Oil Ltd. required a simple and effective method to cleanup brine spills from it operations in east-central Alberta. A risk based brine spill management program was developed in which soil and groundwater from 16 typical spill sites were characterized. The risk of future offsite impacts from spills was evaluated using a 2 tier method. Groundwater quality objectives were established for potential receptors. The migration of chlorine was then determined through groundwater modeling. The study showed that only spills larger than 30 cubic meters in volume posed a risk to receptors surrounding the spill site. The spills were divided into 3 management groups: (1) spills flowing directly into surface or groundwater where unique handling situations would be required, (2) large spills on coarse soils where further assessment and remediation action would be required after initial cleanup, and (3) other spills that pose little risk to receptors and where treatment would involve amendments and monitoring for land restoration capability.

  8. Prototype Biology-Based Radiation Risk Module Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terrier, Douglas; Clayton, Ronald G.; Patel, Zarana; Hu, Shaowen; Huff, Janice

    2015-01-01

    Biological effects of space radiation and risk mitigation are strategic knowledge gaps for the Evolvable Mars Campaign. The current epidemiology-based NASA Space Cancer Risk (NSCR) model contains large uncertainties (HAT #6.5a) due to lack of information on the radiobiology of galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and lack of human data. The use of experimental models that most accurately replicate the response of human tissues is critical for precision in risk projections. Our proposed study will compare DNA damage, histological, and cell kinetic parameters after irradiation in normal 2D human cells versus 3D tissue models, and it will use a multi-scale computational model (CHASTE) to investigate various biological processes that may contribute to carcinogenesis, including radiation-induced cellular signaling pathways. This cross-disciplinary work, with biological validation of an evolvable mathematical computational model, will help reduce uncertainties within NSCR and aid risk mitigation for radiation-induced carcinogenesis.

  9. Does being empathic pay off?-Associations between performance-based measures of empathy and social adjustment in younger and older women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blanke, Elisabeth S; Rauers, Antje; Riediger, Michaela

    2016-08-01

    Cognitive empathy (the ability to infer another person's thoughts and feelings) and emotional empathy (the ability to emotionally resonate with another person's feelings) have been associated with social adjustment. Traditionally, these skills are assessed with self-report measures. However, these may not adequately reflect people's actual empathic abilities. There is only little and inconsistent empirical evidence on associations between performance-based empathy and positive social adjustment. In the study presented here, we gathered further evidence for such an association. Using a realistic interaction task in which unfamiliar women were paired into dyads and talked about positive and negative events in their lives, we assessed empathic accuracy (an indicator of cognitive empathy) and emotional congruence (an indicator of emotional empathy). Additionally, we obtained 2 indicators of social adjustment: participants' self-rated satisfaction regarding the communication with their partner in the interaction task, and their self-rated satisfaction with social relationships in general. We furthermore explored the role of potential moderators, which may help to explain discrepant past findings. To test for contextual and interindividual differences, we distinguished between positive and negative emotional valence in the empathy task and investigated 2 adult age groups (102 younger women: 20-31 years; 106 older: 69-80 years). For almost all analyses, only empathic skills for positive (not for negative) affect were predictive of social adjustment, and the associations were comparable for younger and older women. These results underline the role of valence in associations between empathic skills and social adjustment across the life span. (PsycINFO Database Record

  10. Game Theory and Risk-Based Levee System Design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hui, R.; Lund, J. R.; Madani, K.

    2014-12-01

    Risk-based analysis has been developed for optimal levee design for economic efficiency. Along many rivers, two levees on opposite riverbanks act as a simple levee system. Being rational and self-interested, land owners on each river bank would tend to independently optimize their levees with risk-based analysis, resulting in a Pareto-inefficient levee system design from the social planner's perspective. Game theory is applied in this study to analyze decision making process in a simple levee system in which the land owners on each river bank develop their design strategies using risk-based economic optimization. For each land owner, the annual expected total cost includes expected annual damage cost and annualized construction cost. The non-cooperative Nash equilibrium is identified and compared to the social planner's optimal distribution of flood risk and damage cost throughout the system which results in the minimum total flood cost for the system. The social planner's optimal solution is not feasible without appropriate level of compensation for the transferred flood risk to guarantee and improve conditions for all parties. Therefore, cooperative game theory is then employed to develop an economically optimal design that can be implemented in practice. By examining the game in the reversible and irreversible decision making modes, the cost of decision making myopia is calculated to underline the significance of considering the externalities and evolution path of dynamic water resource problems for optimal decision making.

  11. DALY-Based Health Risk Assessment of Construction Noise in Beijing, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiao, Jun; Li, Xiaodong; Zhang, Zhihui

    2016-10-26

    Noise produced by construction activities has become the second most serious acoustic polluting element in China. To provide industry practitioners with a better understanding of the health risks of construction noise and to aid in creating environmentally friendly construction plans during early construction stages, we developed a quantitative model to assess the health impairment risks (HIA) associated with construction noise for individuals living adjacent to construction sites. This model classifies noise-induced health impairments into four categories: cardiovascular disease, cognitive impairment, sleep disturbance, and annoyance, and uses disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) as an indicator of damage. Furthermore, the value of a statistical life (VSL) is used to transform DALYs into a monetary value based on the affected demographic characteristics, thereby offering policy makers a reliable theoretical foundation for establishing reasonable standards to compensate residents suffering from construction noise. A practical earthwork project in Beijing is used as a case study to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed model. The results indicate that construction noise could bring significant health risks to the neighboring resident community, with an estimated 34.51 DALYs of health damage and 20.47 million yuan in social costs. In particular, people aged 45-54 are most vulnerable to construction noise, with the greatest health risks being caused by sleep disturbance.

  12. Increased risk of essential tremor in migraine: A population-based retrospective cohort study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, Chi-Ieong; Lin, Che-Chen; Chen, Hsuan-Ju; Wang, Han-Cheng; Chen, Wei-Hung

    2017-01-01

    Purpose To examine the long-term risk of essential tremor (ET) in migraine. Methods Using population-based administrative data from a subset of the National Health Insurance Research Database (NHIRD) of Taiwan, we identified 22,696 newly diagnosed migraineurs (mean age 44.5 years) and a matched migraine-free cohort of 90,784 individuals in the period 2000–2008. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was conducted for assessing the ET risk for the migraine cohort compared to the migraine-free cohort. Results After adjusting for covariates, the migraine cohort had a 1.83-fold increased risk (95% CI 1.50–2.23) of subsequent ET in comparison to the migraine-free cohort (8.97 vs. 4.81 per 10,000 person-years). In the subgroup analysis, patients with migraine were associated with higher risks of ET, regardless of gender, age or the existence of comorbidities. Conclusion Our findings demonstrated an association between migraine and ET, suggesting a possible shared pathophysiology underpinning both disorders. PMID:28288163

  13. Endometrial cancer risk prediction including serum-based biomarkers: results from the EPIC cohort.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fortner, Renée T; Hüsing, Anika; Kühn, Tilman; Konar, Meric; Overvad, Kim; Tjønneland, Anne; Hansen, Louise; Boutron-Ruault, Marie-Christine; Severi, Gianluca; Fournier, Agnès; Boeing, Heiner; Trichopoulou, Antonia; Benetou, Vasiliki; Orfanos, Philippos; Masala, Giovanna; Agnoli, Claudia; Mattiello, Amalia; Tumino, Rosario; Sacerdote, Carlotta; Bueno-de-Mesquita, H B As; Peeters, Petra H M; Weiderpass, Elisabete; Gram, Inger T; Gavrilyuk, Oxana; Quirós, J Ramón; Maria Huerta, José; Ardanaz, Eva; Larrañaga, Nerea; Lujan-Barroso, Leila; Sánchez-Cantalejo, Emilio; Butt, Salma Tunå; Borgquist, Signe; Idahl, Annika; Lundin, Eva; Khaw, Kay-Tee; Allen, Naomi E; Rinaldi, Sabina; Dossus, Laure; Gunter, Marc; Merritt, Melissa A; Tzoulaki, Ioanna; Riboli, Elio; Kaaks, Rudolf

    2017-03-15

    Endometrial cancer risk prediction models including lifestyle, anthropometric and reproductive factors have limited discrimination. Adding biomarker data to these models may improve predictive capacity; to our knowledge, this has not been investigated for endometrial cancer. Using a nested case-control study within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort, we investigated the improvement in discrimination gained by adding serum biomarker concentrations to risk estimates derived from an existing risk prediction model based on epidemiologic factors. Serum concentrations of sex steroid hormones, metabolic markers, growth factors, adipokines and cytokines were evaluated in a step-wise backward selection process; biomarkers were retained at p risk estimates. We used internal validation with bootstrapping (1000-fold) to adjust for over-fitting. Adiponectin, estrone, interleukin-1 receptor antagonist, tumor necrosis factor-alpha and triglycerides were selected into the model. After accounting for over-fitting, discrimination was improved by 2.0 percentage points when all evaluated biomarkers were included and 1.7 percentage points in the model including the selected biomarkers. Models including etiologic markers on independent pathways and genetic markers may further improve discrimination. © 2016 UICC.

  14. Risk of hospitalization for community acquired pneumonia with renin-angiotensin blockade in elderly patients: a population-based study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sachin Shah

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: To characterize the 90-day risk of hospitalization with pneumonia among patients treated with different anti-hypertensive drug classes. DESIGN: Population based cohort study using five linked databases. PARTICIPANTS: Individuals over the age of 65 who filled a new outpatient prescription for one of four anti-hypertensive medications: ACE inhibitors (n = 86 775, ARBs (n = 33,953, calcium channel blockers (CCB, n = 34,240, beta blockers (BB, n = 35,331 and thiazide diuretics (n = 64 186. PRIMARY OUTCOME: Hospitalization with pneumonia within 90 days of a qualifying prescription. We adjusted for ten a priori selected covariates, including age, sex, diabetes and number of visits to a family doctor. RESULTS: Baseline characteristics of the groups were relatively well matched, except for age, sex, diabetes and frequency of family doctor visits. 128 of the 86 775 patients (0.15% initiated on an ACE inhibitor and 43 of the 33953 patients (0.13% of patients initiated on an ARB were hospitalized with pneumonia in the subsequent 90 days. 135 of 64 186 patients (0.21% initiated on a thiazide, 112 of 35 331 patients (.32% initiated on a BB, and 89 of 34 240 (0.26% patients initiated on a CCB achieved the primary outcome. Compared to calcium channel blockers, ACE inhibitors (adjusted OR 0.61, 95% CI 0.46 to 0.81 and ARBs (adjusted OR 0.52, 95% CI 0.36 to 0.76 were associated with a lower risk of pneumonia. No benefit was seen with thiazides (adjusted OR 0.87, 95% CI 0.66 to 1.14 or beta blockers (adjusted OR 1.21, 95% CI 0.91 to 1.60. CONCLUSION: Initiating medications that block the renin angiotensin system, compared to other anti-hypertensive medications, is associated with a small absolute reduction in the 90 day risk of hospitalization with pneumonia.

  15. RiskREP: Risk-Based Security Requirements Elicitation and Prioritization

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Herrmann, Andrea; Morali, A.; Etalle, Sandro; Wieringa, Roelf J.; Niedrite, Laila; Strazdina, Renate; Wangler, Benkt

    2011-01-01

    Companies are under pressure to be in control of their assets but at the same time they must operate as efficiently as possible. This means that they aim to implement “good-enough security‿ but need to be able to justify their security investment plans. In this paper, we present a Risk-Based

  16. Self-Tuning Insulin Adjustment Algorithm for Type 1 Diabetic Patients based on Multi-Doses Regime

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. U. Campos-Delgado

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available A self-tuning algorithm is presented for on-line insulin dosage adjustment in type 1 diabetic patients (chronic stage. The algorithm suggested does not need information of the patient insulin–glucose dynamics (model-free. Three doses are programmed daily, where a combination of two types of insulin: rapid/short and intermediate/long acting is injected into the patient through a subcutaneous route. The doses adaptation is performed by reducing the error in the blood glucose level from euglycemics. In this way, a total of five doses are tuned per day: three rapid/short and two intermediate/long, where there is large penalty to avoid hypoglycemic scenarios. Closed-loop simulation results are illustrated using a detailed nonlinear model of the subcutaneous insulin–glucose dynamics in a type 1 diabetic patient with meal intake.

  17. Initial Pre-stress Finding and Structural Behaviors Analysis of Cable Net Based on Linear Adjustment Theory

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    REN Tao; CHEN Wu-jun; FU Gong-yi

    2008-01-01

    The tensile cable-strut structure is a self-equilibrate pre-stressed system. The initial pre-stress calculation is the fundamental structural analysis. A new numerical procedure was developed. The force density method is the cornerstone of analytical formula, and then introduced into linear adjustment theory;the least square least norm solution, the optimized initial pre-stress, is yielded. The initial pre-stress and structural performances of a particular single-layer saddle-shaped cable-net structure were analyzed with the developed method, which is proved to be efficient and correct. The modal analyses were performed with respect to various pre-stress levels. Finally, the structural performances were investigated comprehensively.

  18. Emergy-Based Adjustment of the Agricultural Structure in a Low-Carbon Economy in Manas County of China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergio Ulgiati

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available The emergy concept, integrated with a multi-objective linear programming method, was used to model the agricultural structure of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region under the consideration of the need to develop a low-carbon economy. The emergy indices before and after the structural optimization were evaluated. In the reconstructed model, the proportions of agriculture, forestry and artificial grassland should be adjusted from 19:2:1 to 5.2:1:2.5; the Emergy Yield Ratio (1.48 was higher than the average local (0.49 and national levels (0.27; and the Emergy Investment Ratio (11.1 was higher than the current structure (4.93 and that obtained from the 2003 data (0.055 in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, the Water Emergy Cost (0.055 should be reduced compared to that before the adjustment (0.088. The measurement of all the parameters validated the positive impact of the modeled agricultural structure. The self-sufficiency ratio of the system increased from the original level of 0.106 to 0.432, which indicated a better coupling effect among the subsystems within the whole system. The comparative advantage index between the two systems before and after optimization was approximately 2:1. When the mountain ecosystem service value was considered, excessive animal husbandry led to a 1.41 × 1010 RMB·a−1 indirect economic loss, which was 4.15 times the GDP during the same time period. The functional improvement of the modeled structure supports the plan to “construct a central oasis and protect the surrounding mountains and deserts” to develop a sustainable agricultural system. Conserved natural grassland can make a large contribution to the carbon storage; and therefore, it is wise alternative that promote a low-carbon economic development strategy.

  19. Empirical comparison of maximal voxel and non-isotropic adjusted cluster extent results in a voxel-based morphometry study of comorbid learning disability with schizophrenia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moorhead, T William J; Job, Dominic E; Spencer, Michael D; Whalley, Heather C; Johnstone, Eve C; Lawrie, Stephen M

    2005-11-15

    We present an empirical comparison of cluster extent and maximal voxel results in a voxel-based morphometry (VBM) study of brain structure. The cluster extents are adjusted for underlying deviation from uniform smoothness. We implement this comparison on a four-group cohort that has previously shown evidence of a neuro-developmental component in schizophrenia (Moorhead, T.W.J., Job, D.E., Whalley, H.C., Sanderson, T.L., Johnstone, E.C. and Lawrie, S.M. 2004. Voxel-based morphometry of comorbid schizophrenia and learning disability: analyses in normalized and native spaces using parametric and nonparametric statistical methods. NeuroImage 22: 188-202.). We find that adjusted cluster extent results provide information on the nature of deficits that occur in the schizophrenia affected groups, and these important structural differences are not all shown in maximal voxel results. The maximal voxel and cluster extent results are corrected for multiple comparisons using Random Fields (RF) methods. In order to apply the cluster extent measures, we propose a post-hoc method for determining the primary threshold in the analysis. Unadjusted cluster extent results are reported, for these, no allowance is made for non-isotropic smoothness, and comparison with the adjusted extent results shows that the unadjusted results can be either conservative or anti-conservative depending upon the underlying tissue distributions.

  20. The Effects of School-Based Maum Meditation Program on the Self-Esteem and School Adjustment in Primary School Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoo, Yang Gyeong; Lee, In Soo

    2013-01-01

    Self-esteem and school adjustment of children in the lower grades of primary school, the beginning stage of school life, have a close relationship with development of personality, mental health and characters of children. Therefore, the present study aimed to verify the effect of school-based Maum Meditation program on children in the lower grades of primary school, as a personality education program. The result showed that the experimental group with application of Maum Meditation program had significant improvements in self-esteem and school adjustment, compared to the control group without the application. In conclusion, since the study provides significant evidence that the intervention of Maum Meditation program had positive effects on self-esteem and school adjustment of children in the early stage of primary school, it is suggested to actively employ Maum Meditation as a school-based meditation program for mental health promotion of children in the early school ages, the stage of formation of personalities and habits. PMID:23777717

  1. The effects of school-based Maum meditation program on the self-esteem and school adjustment in primary school students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoo, Yang Gyeong; Lee, In Soo

    2013-03-10

    Self-esteem and school adjustment of children in the lower grades of primary school, the beginning stage of school life, have a close relationship with development of personality, mental health and characters of children. Therefore, the present study aimed to verify the effect of school-based Maum Meditation program on children in the lower grades of primary school, as a personality education program. The result showed that the experimental group with application of Maum Meditation program had significant improvements in self-esteem and school adjustment, compared to the control group without the application. In conclusion, since the study provides significant evidence that the intervention of Maum Meditation program had positive effects on self-esteem and school adjustment of children in the early stage of primary school, it is suggested to actively employ Maum Meditation as a school-based meditation program for mental health promotion of children in the early school ages, the stage of formation of personalities and habits.

  2. A School-Based Suicide Risk Assessment Protocol

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boccio, Dana E.

    2015-01-01

    Suicide remains the third leading cause of death among young people in the United States. Considering that youth who contemplate suicide generally exhibit warning signs before engaging in lethal self-harm, school-based mental health professionals can play a vital role in identifying students who are at risk for suicidal behavior. Nevertheless, the…

  3. Trait-based ecological risk assessment (TERA): the New Frontier?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Baird, D.J.; Rubach, M.N.; Brink, van den P.J.

    2008-01-01

    Traits describe the physical characteristics, ecological niche, and functional role of species within ecosystems, and trait-based approaches are now being introduced into the field of Ecological Risk Assessment (ERA). The costs and benefits arising from the adoption of these approaches in the assess

  4. Risk-based planning analysis for a single levee

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hui, Rui; Jachens, Elizabeth; Lund, Jay

    2016-04-01

    Traditional risk-based analysis for levee planning focuses primarily on overtopping failure. Although many levees fail before overtopping, few planning studies explicitly include intermediate geotechnical failures in flood risk analysis. This study develops a risk-based model for two simplified levee failure modes: overtopping failure and overall intermediate geotechnical failure from through-seepage, determined by the levee cross section represented by levee height and crown width. Overtopping failure is based only on water level and levee height, while through-seepage failure depends on many geotechnical factors as well, mathematically represented here as a function of levee crown width using levee fragility curves developed from professional judgment or analysis. These levee planning decisions are optimized to minimize the annual expected total cost, which sums expected (residual) annual flood damage and annualized construction costs. Applicability of this optimization approach to planning new levees or upgrading existing levees is demonstrated preliminarily for a levee on a small river protecting agricultural land, and a major levee on a large river protecting a more valuable urban area. Optimized results show higher likelihood of intermediate geotechnical failure than overtopping failure. The effects of uncertainty in levee fragility curves, economic damage potential, construction costs, and hydrology (changing climate) are explored. Optimal levee crown width is more sensitive to these uncertainties than height, while the derived general principles and guidelines for risk-based optimal levee planning remain the same.

  5. Task-based dermal exposure models for regulatory risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Warren, N.D.; Marquart, H.; Christopher, Y.; Laitinen, J.; Hemmen, J.J. van

    2006-01-01

    The regulatory risk assessment of chemicals requires the estimation of occupational dermal exposure. Until recently, the models used were either based on limited data or were specific to a particular class of chemical or application. The EU project RISKOFDERM has gathered a considerable number of ne

  6. Risk-Based Operation and Maintenance Using Bayesian Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jannie Jessen; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2011-01-01

    This paper describes how risk-based decision making can be used for maintenance planning of components exposed to degradation such as fatigue in offshore wind turbines. In fatigue models, large epistemic uncertainties are usually present. These can be reduced if monitoring results are used...

  7. Approach channels: risk- and simulation-based design

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nuygen, M.Q.

    2008-01-01

    The aim of this study is to develop new interpretation methods and overall risk assessment models for navigation aspects in association with waterway design. The methods, which are based on the results achieved from ship maneuvering simulation and numerical models, address two ship accident scenario

  8. Research needs for risk-informed, performance-based regulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cloninger, T.H. [Houston Lighting & Power Company, Wadsworth, TX (United States)

    1997-01-01

    This presentation was made by an executive in the utility which operates the South Texas Project reactors, and summarizes their perspective on probabilistic safety analysis, risk-based operation, and risk-based regulation. They view it as a tool to help them better apply their resources to maintain the level of safety necessary to protect the public health and safety. South Texas served as one of the pilot plants for the application of risk-based regulation to the maintenance rule. The author feels that the process presents opportunities as well as challenges. Among the opportunities is the involvement of more people in the process, and the sense of investment they take in the decisions, in addition to the insight they can offer. In the area of challenges there is the need for better understanding of how to apply what already is known on problems, rather than essentially reinventing the wheel to address problems. Research is needed to better understand when some events are not truly of a significant safety concern. The demarcation between deterministic decisions and the appropriate application of risk-based decisions must be better defined, for the sake of the operator as well as the public observing plant operation.

  9. Task-based dermal exposure models for regulatory risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Warren, N.D.; Marquart, H.; Christopher, Y.; Laitinen, J.; Hemmen, J.J. van

    2006-01-01

    The regulatory risk assessment of chemicals requires the estimation of occupational dermal exposure. Until recently, the models used were either based on limited data or were specific to a particular class of chemical or application. The EU project RISKOFDERM has gathered a considerable number of

  10. Delayed heart rate recovery after exercise as a risk factor of incident type 2 diabetes mellitus after adjusting for glycometabolic parameters in men.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Tae Yang; Jee, Jae Hwan; Bae, Ji Cheol; Hong, Won-Jung; Jin, Sang-Man; Kim, Jae Hyeon; Lee, Moon-Kyu

    2016-10-15

    Some studies have reported that delayed heart rate recovery (HRR) after exercise is associated with incident type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). This study aimed to investigate the longitudinal association of delayed HRR following a graded exercise treadmill test (GTX) with the development of T2DM including glucose-associated parameters as an adjusting factor in healthy Korean men. Analyses including fasting plasma glucose, HOMA-IR, HOMA-β, and HbA1c as confounding factors and known confounders were performed. HRR was calculated as peak heart rate minus heart rate after a 1-min rest (HRR 1). Cox proportional hazards model was used to quantify the independent association between HRR and incident T2DM. During 9082 person-years of follow-up between 2006 and 2012, there were 180 (10.1%) incident cases of T2DM. After adjustment for age, BMI, systolic BP, diastolic BP, smoking status, peak heart rate, peak oxygen uptake, TG, LDL-C, HDL-C, fasting plasma glucose, HOMA-IR, HOMA-β, and HbA1c, the hazard ratios (HRs) [95% confidence interval (CI)] of incident T2DM comparing the second and third tertiles to the first tertile of HRR 1 were 0.867 (0.609-1.235) and 0.624 (0.426-0.915), respectively (p for trend=0.017). As a continuous variable, in the fully-adjusted model, the HR (95% CI) of incident T2DM associated with each 1 beat increase in HRR 1 was 0.980 (0.960-1.000) (p=0.048). This study demonstrated that delayed HRR after exercise predicts incident T2DM in men, even after adjusting for fasting glucose, HOMA-IR, HOMA-β, and HbA1c. However, only HRR 1 had clinical significance. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Osteoporosis increases subsequent risk of gallstone: a nationwide population-based cohort study in Taiwan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klahan, Sukhontip; Kuo, Chun-Nan; Chien, Shu-Chen; Lin, Yea-Wen; Lin, Chun-Yi; Lin, Chia-Hsien; Chang, Wei-Chiao; Lin, Ching-I; Hung, Kuo-Sheng; Chang, Wei-Pin

    2014-11-18

    Osteopontin (OPN) is a pro-inflammatory cytokine which is expressed in various tissues. It participates in the bone remodeling process and stimulates bone resorption by osteoclasts. It is also a core protein of cholesterol gallstones. We hypothesized osteoporotic patients might have higher risk in developing gallstones and conducted a population-based study to examine the risk of developing gallstone in osteoporotic patients in Taiwan. A total of 1,638 patients diagnosed with osteoporosis between 2003 and 2005 were identified in the National Health Insurance Research Database. A comparison cohort without osteoporosis (n =6,552) was randomly matched to each osteoporosis patient at a ratio of 4: 1 based on age and sex. A Cox proportional-hazards regression analysis was performed to evaluate the 5-year gallstone-free survival rates for the 2 cohorts. During the 5-year follow-up period, 114 and 311 cases of gallstone occurred in the osteoporosis and comparison cohorts, respectively. After adjusting for the confounders, the Cox regression analysis of the risk of gallstone in the osteoporosis and comparison cohorts yielded a hazard ratio of 1.35 (95% confidence interval: 1.07 - 1.69; p gallstone than the general population.

  12. Work-related violence against educators in Minnesota: rates and risks based on hours exposed.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Chia; Gerberich, Susan G; Alexander, Bruce H; Ryan, Andy D; Nachreiner, Nancy M; Mongin, Steve J

    2013-02-01

    Violence is a major occupational problem; yet, rigorous studies focused on educators to address this problem are limited. The objective was to identify educators' potential risks for physical assault (PA) and nonphysical violence (NPV), based on hours exposed. A total of 4,731 licensed kindergarten through grade 12 Minnesota educators, identified from the Minnesota Department of Education database, participated. Specially designed mailed questionnaires (12-month recall) enabled data collection. Calculated PA and NPV rates, per 100,000 working hours, used Poisson regression. Directed acyclic graphs identified confounders for multivariable analysis, adjusted for non-response and unknown eligibility. The total PA rate was 5.3; PA risks increased for educators who: were non-married versus married; held master's degrees, or education specialist degrees, versus associate/bachelor's degrees; worked in public alternative and various school types, versus public schools; worked as social workers, in special education or multiple activities, versus standard classroom teaching; worked with kindergarten to second grade. The investigated results for PA and NPV were similar, with a few exceptions. DISCUSSION AND IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: Results from this study provided information about factors associated with increased and decreased risks for violence against educators, based on hours worked. In addition, they provided a basis for further investigations to reduce violence against educators in the school environment. Copyright © 2013 National Safety Council and Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Predicting mortality after congenital heart surgeries: Evaluation of the Aristotle and Risk Adjustement in Congenital Heart surgery-1 risk prediction scoring systems: A retrospective single center analysis of 1150 patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shreedhar S Joshi

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Aims and Objectives: To validate Aristotle basic complexity and Aristotle comprehensive complexity (ABC and ACC and risk adjustment in congenital heart surgery-1 (RACHS-1 prediction models for in hospital mortality after surgery for congenital heart disease in a single surgical unit. Materials and Methods: Patients younger than 18 years, who had undergone surgery for congenital heart diseases from July 2007 to July 2013 were enrolled. Scoring for ABC and ACC scoring and assigning to RACHS-1 categories were done retrospectively from retrieved case files. Discriminative power of scoring systems was assessed with area under curve (AUC of receiver operating curves (ROC. Calibration (test for goodness of fit of the model was measured with Hosmer-Lemeshow modification of χ2 test. Net reclassification improvement (NRI and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI were applied to assess reclassification. Results: A total of 1150 cases were assessed with an all-cause in-hospital mortality rate of 7.91%. When modeled for multivariate regression analysis, the ABC (χ2 = 8.24, P = 0.08, ACC (χ2 = 4.17 , P = 0.57 and RACHS-1 (χ2 = 2.13 , P = 0.14 scores showed good overall performance. The AUC was 0.677 with 95% confidence interval (CI of 0.61-0.73 for ABC score, 0.704 (95% CI: 0.64-0.76 for ACC score and for RACHS-1 it was 0.607 (95%CI: 0.55-0.66. ACC had an improved predictability in comparison to RACHS-1 and ABC on analysis with NRI and IDI. Conclusions: ACC predicted mortality better than ABC and RCAHS-1 models. A national database will help in developing predictive models unique to our populations, till then, ACC scoring model can be used to analyze individual performances and compare with other institutes.

  14. Hazardous materials transportation: a risk-analysis-based routing methodology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leonelli, P; Bonvicini, S; Spadoni, G

    2000-01-07

    This paper introduces a new methodology based on risk analysis for the selection of the best route for the transport of a hazardous substance. In order to perform this optimisation, the network is considered as a graph composed by nodes and arcs; each arc is assigned a cost per unit vehicle travelling on it and a vehicle capacity. After short discussion about risk measures suitable for linear risk sources, the arc capacities are introduced by comparison between the societal and individual risk measures of each arc with hazardous materials transportation risk criteria; then arc costs are defined in order to take into account both transportation out-of-pocket expenses and risk-related costs. The optimisation problem can thus be formulated as a 'minimum cost flow problem', which consists of determining for a specific hazardous substance the cheapest flow distribution, honouring the arc capacities, from the origin nodes to the destination nodes. The main features of the optimisation procedure, implemented on the computer code OPTIPATH, are presented. Test results about shipments of ammonia are discussed and finally further research developments are proposed.

  15. Pedestrian safety management using the risk-based approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Romanowska Aleksandra

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents a concept of a multi-level pedestrian safety management system. Three management levels are distinguished: strategic, tactical and operational. The basis for the proposed approach to pedestrian safety management is a risk-based method. In the approach the elements of behavioural and systemic theories were used, allowing for the development of a formalised and repeatable procedure integrating the phases of risk assessment and response to the hazards of road crashes involving pedestrians. Key to the method are tools supporting pedestrian safety management. According to the risk management approach, the tools can be divided into two groups: tools supporting risk assessment and tools supporting risk response. In the paper attention is paid to selected tools supporting risk assessment, with particular emphasis on the methods for estimating forecasted pedestrian safety measures (at strategic, national and regional level and identification of particularly dangerous locations in terms of pedestrian safety at tactical (regional and local and operational level. The proposed pedestrian safety management methods and tools can support road administration in making rational decisions in terms of road safety, safety of road infrastructure, crash elimination measures or reducing the consequences suffered by road users (particularly pedestrians as a result of road crashes.

  16. Agreement in cardiovascular risk rating based on anthropometric parameters

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dantas, Endilly Maria da Silva; Pinto, Cristiane Jordânia; Freitas, Rodrigo Pegado de Abreu; Medeiros, Anna Cecília Queiroz de [Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte, Natal, RN (Brazil)

    2015-07-01

    To investigate the agreement in evaluation of risk of developing cardiovascular diseases based on anthropometric parameters in young adults. The study included 406 students, measuring weight, height, and waist and neck circumferences. Waist-to-height ratio and the conicity index. The kappa coefficient was used to assess agreement in risk classification for cardiovascular diseases. The positive and negative specific agreement values were calculated as well. The Pearson chi-square (χ{sup 2}) test was used to assess associations between categorical variables (p<0.05). The majority of the parameters assessed (44%) showed slight (k=0.21 to 0.40) and/or poor agreement (k<0.20), with low values of negative specific agreement. The best agreement was observed between waist circumference and waist-to-height ratio both for the general population (k=0.88) and between sexes (k=0.93 to 0.86). There was a significant association (p<0.001) between the risk of cardiovascular diseases and females when using waist circumference and conicity index, and with males when using neck circumference. This resulted in a wide variation in the prevalence of cardiovascular disease risk (5.5%-36.5%), depending on the parameter and the sex that was assessed. The results indicate variability in agreement in assessing risk for cardiovascular diseases, based on anthropometric parameters, and which also seems to be influenced by sex. Further studies in the Brazilian population are required to better understand this issue.

  17. Mindfulness Based Programs Implemented with At-Risk Adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rawlett, Kristen; Scrandis, Debra

    2016-01-01

    This review examines studies on mindfulness based programs used with adolescents at-risk for poor future outcomes such as not graduating from high school and living in poverty. The keywords used include mindfulness, at-risk and adolescents in each database to search CINAHL (10 items: 2 book reviews, 3 Dissertations, and 5 research articles), Medline EBSCO (15 research articles), and PubMed (10 research articles). Only primary research articles published between 2009- 2015 in English on mindfulness and at-risk adolescents were included for the most current evidence. Few studies (n= 11) were found that investigate mindfulness in at-risk adolescents. These studies used various mindfulness programs (n = 7) making it difficult to generalize findings for practice. Only three studies were randomized control trials focusing mostly on male students with low socioeconomic status and existing mental health diagnoses. There is a relationship between health behaviors and academic achievement. Future research studies on mindfulness based interventions need to expand to its effects on academic achievement in those youth at-risk to decrease problematic behaviors and improve their ability to be successful adults.

  18. Model based climate information on drought risk in Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calmanti, S.; Syroka, J.; Jones, C.; Carfagna, F.; Dell'Aquila, A.; Hoefsloot, P.; Kaffaf, S.; Nikulin, G.

    2012-04-01

    The United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) has embarked upon the endeavor of creating a sustainable Africa-wide natural disaster risk management system. A fundamental building block of this initiative is the setup of a drought impact modeling platform called Africa Risk-View that aims to quantify and monitor weather-related food security risk in Africa. The modeling approach is based the Water Requirement Satisfaction Index (WRSI), as the fundamental indicator of the performances of agriculture and uses historical records of food assistance operation to project future potential needs for livelihood protection. By using climate change scenarios as an input to Africa Risk-View it is possible, in principles, to evaluate the future impact of climate variability on critical issues such as food security and the overall performance of the envisaged risk management system. A necessary preliminary step to this challenging task is the exploration of the sources of uncertainties affecting the assessment based on modeled climate change scenarios. For this purpose, a limited set of climate models have been selected in order verify the relevance of using climate model output data with Africa Risk-View and to explore a minimal range of possible sources of uncertainty. This first evaluation exercise started before the setup of the CORDEX framework and has relied on model output available at the time. In particular only one regional downscaling was available for the entire African continent from the ENSEMBLES project. The analysis shows that current coarse resolution global climate models can not directly feed into the Africa RiskView risk-analysis tool. However, regional downscaling may help correcting the inherent biases observed in the datasets. Further analysis is performed by using the first data available under the CORDEX framework. In particular, we consider a set of simulation driven with boundary conditions from the reanalysis ERA-Interim to evaluate the skill drought

  19. Development of a GCR Event-based Risk Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cucinotta, Francis A.; Ponomarev, Artem L.; Plante, Ianik; Carra, Claudio; Kim, Myung-Hee

    2009-01-01

    A goal at NASA is to develop event-based systems biology models of space radiation risks that will replace the current dose-based empirical models. Complex and varied biochemical signaling processes transmit the initial DNA and oxidative damage from space radiation into cellular and tissue responses. Mis-repaired damage or aberrant signals can lead to genomic instability, persistent oxidative stress or inflammation, which are causative of cancer and CNS risks. Protective signaling through adaptive responses or cell repopulation is also possible. We are developing a computational simulation approach to galactic cosmic ray (GCR) effects that is based on biological events rather than average quantities such as dose, fluence, or dose equivalent. The goal of the GCR Event-based Risk Model (GERMcode) is to provide a simulation tool to describe and integrate physical and biological events into stochastic models of space radiation risks. We used the quantum multiple scattering model of heavy ion fragmentation (QMSFRG) and well known energy loss processes to develop a stochastic Monte-Carlo based model of GCR transport in spacecraft shielding and tissue. We validated the accuracy of the model by comparing to physical data from the NASA Space Radiation Laboratory (NSRL). Our simulation approach allows us to time-tag each GCR proton or heavy ion interaction in tissue including correlated secondary ions often of high multiplicity. Conventional space radiation risk assessment employs average quantities, and assumes linearity and additivity of responses over the complete range of GCR charge and energies. To investigate possible deviations from these assumptions, we studied several biological response pathway models of varying induction and relaxation times including the ATM, TGF -Smad, and WNT signaling pathways. We then considered small volumes of interacting cells and the time-dependent biophysical events that the GCR would produce within these tissue volumes to estimate how

  20. Risk of anxiety and depressive disorders in patients with myocardial infarction: A nationwide population-based cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Hsin-Pei; Chien, Wu-Chien; Cheng, Wei-Tung; Chung, Chi-Hsiang; Cheng, Shu-Meng; Tzeng, Wen-Chii

    2016-08-01

    Anxiety and depressive symptoms are associated with adverse cardiovascular events after an acute myocardial infarction (MI). However, most studies focusing on anxiety or depression have used rating scales or self-report methods rather than clinical diagnosis. This study aimed to investigate the association between psychiatrist-diagnosed psychiatric disorders and cardiovascular prognosis.We sampled data from the National Health Insurance Research Database; 1396 patients with MI were recruited as the study cohort and 13,960 patients without MI were recruited as the comparison cohort. Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to examine the effect of MI on the risk of anxiety and depressive disorders.During the first 2 years of follow-up, patients with MI exhibited a significantly higher risk of anxiety disorders (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] = 5.06, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 4.61-5.54) and depressive disorders (adjusted HR = 7.23, 95% CI: 4.88-10.88) than those without MI did. Greater risk for anxiety and depressive disorders was observed among women and patients aged 45 to 64 years following an acute MI. Patients with post-MI anxiety had a 9.37-fold (95% CI: 4.45-19.70) higher risk of recurrent MI than those without MI did after adjustment for age, sex, socioeconomic status, and comorbidities.This nationwide population-based cohort study provides evidence that MI increases the risk of anxiety and depressive disorders during the first 2 years post-MI, and post-MI anxiety disorders are associated with a higher risk of recurrent MI.