AVISE, ageing anticipation methodology using expert judgement and stimulation. Application to a nuclear power plant component: the pressurizer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bouzaiene-Marle, L.

2005-04-01

This thesis deals with components ageing anticipation in the context of life cycle management. The proposed approach, called AVISE, allows the identification of potentials problems related to ageing, to measure the risks in terms of degradation probability and degradation consequences and gives the adequate solutions to stop or to postpone ageing. This research was undertaken in a particular industrial context, the nuclear industry. Equipments used in this context are specific and particularly reliable. These characteristics result in limited feedback (low number of failures). To compensate for this limited information, two solutions are proposed in this approach. The first solution that we can consider as a classical one consists in using expert judgement. The second one, more original, consists in using the operation feedback of 'similar' components. In order to apply these solutions and to obtain the anticipation results, a set of methodological tools was developed and tested in a real industrial application on a nuclear power plant component: the pressurizer. The first tool is a generic process for expert judgement, identified thanks to a comparison between eleven existing methods using expert judgement. Two methods based on expert stimulation and called STIMEX-IMDP and STIMEX-IPP were elaborated. A reference list of degradation mechanisms and a reference list of ageing effects were constructed and used in the method STIMEX-IMDP in order to help expert stimulation. Then, the developed approach proposes the use of belief networks to model and quantify the risks related to the potential degradations. Finally, the construction of a conceptual data model and specifications are given for the creation of an ageing database. The data to capitalize was identified on the basis of the research undertaken in this thesis. (author)

Construction of a case for expert judgement of uncertainty in early health effects models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Grupa, J.

1997-11-01

The contribution of ECN to a joint study of the European Commission (EC) and the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), in which the uncertainty in risks and consequences of severe accidents at nuclear power plants are evaluated, is described. The procedure used to obtain these uncertainties is called expert judgement. In a formal expert judgement procedure a panel of experts has provided quantitative information about the uncertainty in given observables: a quantity that describes an observation concerning the phenomenon of interest, in this paper the relation between dose and health effects, without information or assumptions about any model describing this phenomenon. The observables are defined in a case structure, a questionnaire provided to all experts. ECN has contributed to the selection of the experts for the early health effects panel, and provided assistance for drafting the case structure for this panel. This paper describes the radiological information provided by ECN and the analyses necessary for constructing the case structure. The deliverables of the expert elicitation are uncertainty distributions of the observables requested in the case structure. The results are intended to be unbiased, i.e. it should be applicable to any model describing the relation between dose and health effects. They will be published by the project team in a joint publication of the NRC and the EC. In this way the resulting uncertainty distributions are available for further work in the joint project and available to a more general public. 2 figs., 4 refs

An Exploration of the Examination Script Features that Most Influence Expert Judgements in Three Methods of Evaluating Script Quality

Science.gov (United States)

Suto, Irenka; Novakovic, Nadezda

2012-01-01

Some methods of determining grade boundaries within examinations, such as awarding, paired comparisons, and rank ordering, entail expert judgements of script quality. We aimed to identify the features of examinees' scripts that most influence judgements in the three methods. For contrasting examinations in biology and English, a Latin square…

Procedures for the elicitation of expert judgements in the probabilistic risk analysis of radioactive waste repositories: an overview

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Watson, S.R.

1992-01-01

In modelling the consequences of a radioactive waste repository using Probabilistic Risk Analysis, it is necessary to use the judgement of experts both in assessing probabilities subjectively, and in choosing suitable analytic frameworks. This report presents the literature on these topics, first discussing the meaning of probability in PRA, and then giving an extensive review of what is known about how to elicit probabilities from experts. The report then provides an overview of the less well developed field of how best to use expertise in the construction of models for PRA. (author)

Procedures for the elicitation of expert judgements in the probabilistic risk analysis of the long-term effects of radioactive waste repositories: an annotated bibliography

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Watson, S.R.

1993-01-01

This annotated bibliography describes the key literature relevant to the elicitation of expert judgements in radioactive waste management. The bibliography is divided into seven sections; section 2 lists the literature exploring the proper interpretation of probabilities used in Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA). Section 3 lists literature describing other calculi for handling uncertainty in a numerical fashion. In section 4 comments are given on how to elicit probabilities from individuals as a measure of subjective degrees of belief and section 5 lists the literature concerning how expert judgements can be combined. Sections 6 and 7 list literature giving an overview of the issues involved in PRA for radioactive waste repositories. (author)

AVISE, ageing anticipation methodology using expert judgement and stimulation. Application to a nuclear power plant component: the pressurizer; AVISE, Anticipation du Vieillissement par Interrogation et Stimulation d'Experts. Application a un materiel passif d'une centrale nucleaire: le pressuriseur

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bouzaiene-Marle, L

2005-04-15

This thesis deals with components ageing anticipation in the context of life cycle management. The proposed approach, called AVISE, allows the identification of potentials problems related to ageing, to measure the risks in terms of degradation probability and degradation consequences and gives the adequate solutions to stop or to postpone ageing. This research was undertaken in a particular industrial context, the nuclear industry. Equipments used in this context are specific and particularly reliable. These characteristics result in limited feedback (low number of failures). To compensate for this limited information, two solutions are proposed in this approach. The first solution that we can consider as a classical one consists in using expert judgement. The second one, more original, consists in using the operation feedback of 'similar' components. In order to apply these solutions and to obtain the anticipation results, a set of methodological tools was developed and tested in a real industrial application on a nuclear power plant component: the pressurizer. The first tool is a generic process for expert judgement, identified thanks to a comparison between eleven existing methods using expert judgement. Two methods based on expert stimulation and called STIMEX-IMDP and STIMEX-IPP were elaborated. A reference list of degradation mechanisms and a reference list of ageing effects were constructed and used in the method STIMEX-IMDP in order to help expert stimulation. Then, the developed approach proposes the use of belief networks to model and quantify the risks related to the potential degradations. Finally, the construction of a conceptual data model and specifications are given for the creation of an ageing database. The data to capitalize was identified on the basis of the research undertaken in this thesis. (author)

AVISE, ageing anticipation methodology using expert judgement and stimulation. Application to a nuclear power plant component: the pressurizer; AVISE, Anticipation du Vieillissement par Interrogation et Stimulation d'Experts. Application a un materiel passif d'une centrale nucleaire: le pressuriseur

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bouzaiene-Marle, L

2005-04-15

This thesis deals with components ageing anticipation in the context of life cycle management. The proposed approach, called AVISE, allows the identification of potentials problems related to ageing, to measure the risks in terms of degradation probability and degradation consequences and gives the adequate solutions to stop or to postpone ageing. This research was undertaken in a particular industrial context, the nuclear industry. Equipments used in this context are specific and particularly reliable. These characteristics result in limited feedback (low number of failures). To compensate for this limited information, two solutions are proposed in this approach. The first solution that we can consider as a classical one consists in using expert judgement. The second one, more original, consists in using the operation feedback of 'similar' components. In order to apply these solutions and to obtain the anticipation results, a set of methodological tools was developed and tested in a real industrial application on a nuclear power plant component: the pressurizer. The first tool is a generic process for expert judgement, identified thanks to a comparison between eleven existing methods using expert judgement. Two methods based on expert stimulation and called STIMEX-IMDP and STIMEX-IPP were elaborated. A reference list of degradation mechanisms and a reference list of ageing effects were constructed and used in the method STIMEX-IMDP in order to help expert stimulation. Then, the developed approach proposes the use of belief networks to model and quantify the risks related to the potential degradations. Finally, the construction of a conceptual data model and specifications are given for the creation of an ageing database. The data to capitalize was identified on the basis of the research undertaken in this thesis. (author)

A Judgement-Based Model of Workplace Learning

Science.gov (United States)

Athanasou, James A.

2004-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to outline a judgement-based model of adult learning. This approach is set out as a Perceptual-Judgemental-Reinforcement approach to social learning under conditions of complexity and where there is no single, clearly identified correct response. The model builds upon the Hager-Halliday thesis of workplace learning and…

Confidence and clinical judgement in community nurses managing venous leg ulceration - A judgement analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Adderley, Una J; Thompson, Carl

2017-11-01

The variation in the management of venous leg ulceration in the UK is partly attributable to an uncertain clinical environment but the quality of judgements is influenced by the how well nurses' confidence and accuracy are aligned. To assess UK community nurses' confidence in the accuracy of their diagnostic judgements and treatment choices when managing venous leg ulceration. Judgement Analysis. UK community and primary care nursing services. 18 community non-specialist nurses working in district (home) nursing teams and general practitioner services and 18 community tissue viability specialist nurses. Using judgement analysis methods, 18 community non-specialist nurses and 18 community tissue viability specialist nurses made diagnoses and treatment judgements about compression therapy for 110 clinical scenarios and indicated their confidence for each judgement. An expert panel made consensus judgements for the same scenarios and these judgements were used as a standard against which to compare the participants. Confidence analysis was used to assess the nurses' confidence about their diagnostic judgements and treatment choices. Despite being very experienced, both non-specialist nurses' and specialist tissue viability nurses' levels of confidence were not well calibrated with their levels of accuracy. The results of this study are important as errors resulting from both over and under-confidence at the diagnostic phase of management may influence treatment choices, and thus increase the chances of treatment error. Copyright © 2017 Tissue Viability Society. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Earthquakes and Tectonics Expert Judgment Elicitation Project

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Coppersmith, K.J.; Perman, R.C.; Youngs, R.R.

1993-02-01

This report summarizes the results of the Earthquakes and Tectonics Expert Judgement Excitation Project sponsored by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI). The objectives of this study were two-fold: (1) to demonstrate methods for the excitation of expert judgement, and (2) to quantify the uncertainties associated with earthquake and tectonics issues for use in the EPRI-HLW performance assessment. Specifically, the technical issue considered is the probability of differential fault displacement through the proposed repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. For this study, a strategy for quantifying uncertainties was developed that relies on the judgements of multiple experts. A panel of seven geologists and seismologists was assembled to quantify the uncertainties associated with earthquake and tectonics issues for the performance assessment model. A series of technical workshops focusing on these issues were conducted. Finally, each expert was individually interviewed in order to elicit his judgement regarding the technical issues and to provide the technical basis for his assessment. This report summarizes the methodologies used to elicit the judgements of the earthquakes and tectonics experts (termed ''specialists''), and summarizes the technical assessments made by the expert panel

Children's judgements and emotions about social exclusion based on weight.

Science.gov (United States)

Nguyen, Christine; Malti, Tina

2014-09-01

This study examined children's judgements and emotions associated with weight-based social exclusion using an ethnically diverse sample of one hundred and seventeen 9- and 13-year-old children. Children were interviewed about three scenarios depicting weight-based exclusion in athletic, academic, and social contexts. Children's judgements of exclusion, emotions attributed to the excluder and excluded targets, and justifications for judgements and emotions were examined. Overall, children judged weight-based exclusion to be wrong for moral reasons. However, they viewed weight-based exclusion in athletic contexts as less wrong compared with academic contexts, and they used more social-conventional reasoning to justify judgements and emotions attributed to excluders in athletic contexts compared with academic and social contexts. Children also expected excluded targets to feel negative emotions, whereas a range of positive and negative emotions was attributed to excluders. In addition, older children were more accepting of weight-based exclusion in athletic contexts than in academic and social contexts. We discuss the results in relation to the development of children's understanding of, and emotions associated with, exclusion based on weight. © 2014 The British Psychological Society.

Use of expert judgement in NUREG-1150

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ortiz, N.R.; Wheeler, T.A.; Breeding, R.J.; Hora, S.; Meyer, M.A.; Kenney, R.L.

1991-01-01

The explicit expert judgment process used in NUREG-1150, 'Severe Accident Risks: An Assessment for Five US Nuclear Plants', is discussed in this paper. The main steps of the process are described, including selection of issues and experts, elicitation training, presentation of issues to the experts, preparation of issue analyses by the experts, discussion of issue analyses and elicitation, and recomposition and aggregation of results. To demonstrate the application of the expert judgment process to NUREG-1150, two issues are summarized: one from the accident frequency analysis, and one from the accident progression analysis. Recommendations and insights are provided to improve the use of explicit expert judgment in complex technical issues. (orig.)

Putting the puzzle together: the role of 'problem definition' in complex clinical judgement.

Science.gov (United States)

Cristancho, Sayra; Lingard, Lorelei; Forbes, Thomas; Ott, Michael; Novick, Richard

2017-02-01

We teach judgement in pieces; that is, we talk about each aspect separately (patient, plan, resources, technique, etc.). We also let trainees figure out how to put the pieces together. In complex situations, this might be problematic. Using data from a drawing-based study on surgeons' experiences with complex situations, we explore the notion of 'problem definition' in real-world clinical judgement using the theoretical lens of systems engineering. 'Emergence', the sensitising concept for analysis, is rooted in two key systems premises: that person and context are inseparable and that what emerges is an act of choice. Via a 'gallery walk' we used these premises to perform analysis on individual drawings as well as cross-comparisons of multiple drawings. Our focus was to understand similarities and differences among the vantage points used by multiple surgeons. In this paper we challenge two assumptions from current models of clinical judgement: that experts hold a fixed and static definition of the problem and that consequently the focus of the expert's work is on solving the problem. Each situation described by our participants revealed different but complementary perspectives of what a surgical problem might come to be: from concerns about ensuring standard of care, to balancing personal emotions versus care choices, to coordinating resources, and to maintaining control while in the midst of personality clashes. We suggest that it is only at the situation and system level, not at the individual level, that we are able to appreciate the nuances of defining the problem when experts make judgements during real-world complex situations. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd and The Association for the Study of Medical Education.

NATO Guide for Judgement-Based Operational Analysis in Defence Decision Making : Executive Leaflet

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wijnmalen, D.J.D.; et al

2012-01-01

Judgment plays an important role in all Operational Analysis (OA). NATO practitioners have determined that approaches in OA that are based on human judgement are increasingly critical to defence decision making. The purpose of the NATO Guide for Judgement-Based OA in Defence Decision Making is to

NATO Guide for Judgement-Based Operational Analysis in Defence Decision Making : Client-Oriented Volume

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wijnmalen, D.J.D.; et al

2012-01-01

Judgment plays an important role in all Operational Analysis (OA). NATO practitioners have determined that approaches in OA that are based on human judgement are increasingly critical to defence decision making. The purpose of the NATO Guide for Judgement-Based OA in Defence Decision Making is to

From Being Non-Judgemental to Deconstructing Normalising Judgement

Science.gov (United States)

Winslade, John M.

2013-01-01

Beginning with Carl Rogers' exhortation for counsellors to be non-judgemental of their clients, this article explores the rationale for withholding judgement in therapy, including diagnostic judgement. It traces Rogers' incipient sociopolitical analysis as a foundation for this ethic and argues that Michel Foucault provides a stronger…

Higher motivation - greater control? The effect of arousal on judgement.

Science.gov (United States)

Riemer, Hila; Viswanathan, Madhu

2013-01-01

This research examines control over the effect of arousal, a dimension of affect, on judgement. Past research shows that high processing motivation enhances control over the effects of affect on judgement. Isolating and studying arousal as opposed to valence, the other dimension of affect, and its effect on judgement, we identify boundary conditions for past findings. Drawing from the literature on processes by which arousal influences judgement, we demonstrate that the role of motivation is contingent upon the type of judgement task (i.e., memory- versus stimulus-based judgement). In stimulus-based judgement, individuals exert greater control over the effect of arousal on judgement under low compared to high motivation. In contrast, in memory-based judgement individuals exert greater control over the effect of arousal under high compared to low motivation. Theoretical implications and avenues for future research are discussed.

Patient preferences versus physicians' judgement: does it make a difference in healthcare decision making?

Science.gov (United States)

Mühlbacher, Axel C; Juhnke, Christin

2013-06-01

Clinicians and public health experts make evidence-based decisions for individual patients, patient groups and even whole populations. In addition to the principles of internal and external validity (evidence), patient preferences must also influence decision making. Great Britain, Australia and Germany are currently discussing methods and procedures for valuing patient preferences in regulatory (authorization and pricing) and in health policy decision making. However, many questions remain on how to best balance patient and public preferences with physicians' judgement in healthcare and health policy decision making. For example, how to define evaluation criteria regarding the perceived value from a patient's perspective? How do physicians' fact-based opinions also reflect patients' preferences based on personal values? Can empirically grounded theories explain differences between patients and experts-and, if so, how? This article aims to identify and compare studies that used different preference elicitation methods and to highlight differences between patient and physician preferences. Therefore, studies comparing patient preferences and physician judgements were analysed in a review. This review shows a limited amount of literature analysing and comparing patient and physician preferences for healthcare interventions and outcomes. Moreover, it shows that methodology used to compare preferences is diverse. A total of 46 studies used the following methods-discrete-choice experiments, conjoint analyses, standard gamble, time trade-offs and paired comparisons-to compare patient preferences with doctor judgements. All studies were published between 1985 and 2011. Most studies reveal a disparity between the preferences of actual patients and those of physicians. For most conditions, physicians underestimated the impact of intervention characteristics on patients' decision making. Differentiated perceptions may reflect ineffective communication between the provider

Could situational judgement tests be used for selection into dental foundation training?

Science.gov (United States)

Patterson, F; Ashworth, V; Mehra, S; Falcon, H

2012-07-13

To pilot and evaluate a machine-markable situational judgement test (SJT) designed to select candidates into UK dental foundation training. Single centre pilot study. UK postgraduate deanery in 2010. Seventy-four candidates attending interview for dental foundation training in Oxford and Wessex Deaneries volunteered to complete the situational judgement test. The situational judgement test was developed to assess relevant professional attributes for dentistry (for example, empathy and integrity) in a machine-markable format. Test content was developed by subject matter experts working with experienced psychometricians. Evaluation of psychometric properties of the pilot situational judgement test (for example, reliability, validity and fairness). Scores in the dental foundation training selection process (short-listing and interviews) were used to examine criterion-related validity. Candidates completed an evaluation questionnaire to examine candidate reactions and face validity of the new test. Forty-six candidates were female and 28 male; mean age was 23.5-years-old (range 22-32). Situational judgement test scores were normally distributed and the test showed good internal reliability when corrected for test length (α = 0.74). Situational judgement test scores positively correlated with the management, leadership and professionalism interview (N = 50; r = 0.43, p fair. This initial pilot study suggests that a situational judgement test is an appropriate and innovative method to measure professional attributes (eg empathy and integrity) for selection into foundation training. Further research will explore the long-term predictive validity of the situational judgement test once candidates have entered training.

The CBT Advisor: An Expert System Program for Making Decisions about CBT.

Science.gov (United States)

Kearsley, Greg

1985-01-01

Discusses structure, credibility, and use of the Computer Based Training (CBT) Advisor, an expert system designed to help managers make judgements about course selection, system selection, cost/benefits, development effort, and probable success of CBT projects. (MBR)

Evaluation of preconceptual plug designs using experts' judgement

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sioshansi, F.P.; O'Rourke, J.E.

1980-03-01

A number of preconceptual plug designs for an underground nuclear waste repository were to be evaluated based on the available information on plug materials and placement techniques. Because of complex environment and loading conditions, long time frame under consideration, rigid performance characteristics and considerable uncertainties present in preconceptual design and material properties, a qualitative and judgmental evaluation procedure was needed to supplement technical studies. A structured procedure was developed to qualitatively capture evaluator's views and reservations on the proposed preconceptual schemes. Since a thorough evaluation of each proposed plug scheme required in-depth experience and familiarity with many components of the plug, three knowledgeable experts with specialties in the most relevant aspects of the problem were independently interviewed. Each plug scheme was broken down into three subcomponents and each subcomponent was evaluated separately. The proposed schemes were then rated taking their subcomponents into consideration. Because the experts had different specialties, their subcomponent and overall ratings were not in full agreement. Each plug scheme's lowest overall rating was used as the most significant determinant of the judgmental preference categories reported in this study. The approach used discriminated between the proposed schemes for those with highest probability of being successful. The most preferred schemes were then reviewed with respect to the data produced in the technical analysis performed during the project. The results of the judgmental analysis were then synthesized and modified with results of the technical analysis to produce the preconceptual plug designs

Expert status and performance.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mark A Burgman

Full Text Available Expert judgements are essential when time and resources are stretched or we face novel dilemmas requiring fast solutions. Good advice can save lives and large sums of money. Typically, experts are defined by their qualifications, track record and experience. The social expectation hypothesis argues that more highly regarded and more experienced experts will give better advice. We asked experts to predict how they will perform, and how their peers will perform, on sets of questions. The results indicate that the way experts regard each other is consistent, but unfortunately, ranks are a poor guide to actual performance. Expert advice will be more accurate if technical decisions routinely use broadly-defined expert groups, structured question protocols and feedback.

Counter-intuitive moral judgement following traumatic brain injury.

Science.gov (United States)

Rowley, Dane A; Rogish, Miles; Alexander, Timothy; Riggs, Kevin J

2017-02-07

Several neurological patient populations, including traumatic brain injury (TBI), appear to produce an abnormally 'utilitarian' pattern of judgements to moral dilemmas; they tend to make judgements that maximize the welfare of the majority, rather than deontological judgements based on the following of moral rules (e.g., do not harm others). However, this patient research has always used extreme dilemmas with highly valued moral rules (e.g., do not kill). Data from healthy participants, however, suggest that when a wider range of dilemmas are employed, involving less valued moral rules (e.g., do not lie), moral judgements demonstrate sensitivity to the psychological intuitiveness of the judgements, rather than their deontological or utilitarian content (Kahane et al., Social Cognitive and Affective Neuroscience, 7, 2011, 393). We sought the moral judgements of 30 TBI participants and 30 controls on moral dilemmas where content (utilitarian/deontological) and intuition (intuitive/counter-intuitive) were measured concurrently. Overall TBI participants made utilitarian judgements in equal proportions to controls; disproportionately favouring utilitarian judgements only when they were counter-intuitive, and deontological judgements only when they were counter-intuitive. These results speak against the view that TBI causes a specific utilitarian bias, suggesting instead that moral intuition is broadly disrupted following TBI. © 2017 The British Psychological Society.

The use of expert judgement in decision making

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2005-07-01

Expert judgment (EJ) techniques and protocols have been used in different areas for more than half a century. the Nuclear Energy Division of the Commissariat a l'Energie Atomique (CEA), via the Risk Control Domain of the Nuclear Development and Innovation Division and the Innovative Systems Studies Service, and the Institute for Energy of JRC (Petten), via the Nuclear Safety Unit, organized a 'workshop on the use of expert judgment in decision making'. The objectives of this workshop were to create an exchange forum about this topic and to gather a first state of the art, in order to identify the needs for R and D. This workshop brought together approximately 55 participants, from different industry sectors (energy, both nuclear and non-nuclear, food and communication among others) and from universities, research organizations and technical support organizations. The workshop was divided in one opening session, four thematic sessions plus a round table and a final general discussion session. The first session was dedicated to the elicitation of expertise and the combination of opinions given by different experts. The papers in this session had more theoretical contents than most of the papers in other session. The second session was dedicated to expert knowledge management. It consisted of four papers, two of them in the area of the food industry, one of them in the area of e-business and the last one in the area of human reliability assessment (HRA) and its impact on Probabilistic Safety Analysis (PSA) calculations. The third session was dedicated to industrial applications and consisted of four papers, all of them in the area of energy production. The last session was about the use of EJ in risk analysis and decision making processes. Four papers were included in this session, EJ has been applied for a very long time in very different fields, which has brought as a consequence a broad diversity of methodologies The workshop did also show the

The use of expert judgement in decision making

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2005-01-01

Expert judgment (EJ) techniques and protocols have been used in different areas for more than half a century. the Nuclear Energy Division of the Commissariat a l'Energie Atomique (CEA), via the Risk Control Domain of the Nuclear Development and Innovation Division and the Innovative Systems Studies Service, and the Institute for Energy of JRC (Petten), via the Nuclear Safety Unit, organized a 'workshop on the use of expert judgment in decision making'. The objectives of this workshop were to create an exchange forum about this topic and to gather a first state of the art, in order to identify the needs for R and D. This workshop brought together approximately 55 participants, from different industry sectors (energy, both nuclear and non-nuclear, food and communication among others) and from universities, research organizations and technical support organizations. The workshop was divided in one opening session, four thematic sessions plus a round table and a final general discussion session. The first session was dedicated to the elicitation of expertise and the combination of opinions given by different experts. The papers in this session had more theoretical contents than most of the papers in other session. The second session was dedicated to expert knowledge management. It consisted of four papers, two of them in the area of the food industry, one of them in the area of e-business and the last one in the area of human reliability assessment (HRA) and its impact on Probabilistic Safety Analysis (PSA) calculations. The third session was dedicated to industrial applications and consisted of four papers, all of them in the area of energy production. The last session was about the use of EJ in risk analysis and decision making processes. Four papers were included in this session, EJ has been applied for a very long time in very different fields, which has brought as a consequence a broad diversity of methodologies The workshop did also show the variety of techniques

The use of expert judgement in decision making

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2005-07-01

Expert judgment (EJ) techniques and protocols have been used in different areas for more than half a century. the Nuclear Energy Division of the Commissariat a l'Energie Atomique (CEA), via the Risk Control Domain of the Nuclear Development and Innovation Division and the Innovative Systems Studies Service, and the Institute for Energy of JRC (Petten), via the Nuclear Safety Unit, organized a 'workshop on the use of expert judgment in decision making'. The objectives of this workshop were to create an exchange forum about this topic and to gather a first state of the art, in order to identify the needs for R and D. This workshop brought together approximately 55 participants, from different industry sectors (energy, both nuclear and non-nuclear, food and communication among others) and from universities, research organizations and technical support organizations. The workshop was divided in one opening session, four thematic sessions plus a round table and a final general discussion session. The first session was dedicated to the elicitation of expertise and the combination of opinions given by different experts. The papers in this session had more theoretical contents than most of the papers in other session. The second session was dedicated to expert knowledge management. It consisted of four papers, two of them in the area of the food industry, one of them in the area of e-business and the last one in the area of human reliability assessment (HRA) and its impact on Probabilistic Safety Analysis (PSA) calculations. The third session was dedicated to industrial applications and consisted of four papers, all of them in the area of energy production. The last session was about the use of EJ in risk analysis and decision making processes. Four papers were included in this session, EJ has been applied for a very long time in very different fields, which has brought as a consequence a broad diversity of methodologies The workshop did also show the variety of techniques

Aesthetic Judgement of Orientation in Modern Art

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

George Mather

2012-01-01

Full Text Available When creating an artwork, the artist makes a decision regarding the orientation at which the work is to be hung based on their aesthetic judgement and the message conveyed by the piece. Is the impact or aesthetic appeal of a work diminished when it is hung at an incorrect orientation? To investigate this question, Experiment 1 asked whether naïve observers can appreciate the correct orientation (as defined by the artist of 40 modern artworks, some of which are entirely abstract. Eighteen participants were shown 40 paintings in a series of trials. Each trial presented all four cardinal orientations on a computer screen, and the participant was asked to select the orientation that was most attractive or meaningful. Results showed that the correct orientation was selected in 48% of trials on average, significantly above the 25% chance level, but well below perfect performance. A second experiment investigated the extent to which the 40 paintings contained recognisable content, which may have mediated orientation judgements. Recognition rates varied from 0% for seven of the paintings to 100% for five paintings. Orientation judgements in Experiment 1 correlated significantly with “meaningful” content judgements in Experiment 2: 42% of the variance in orientation judgements in Experiment 1 was shared with recognition of meaningful content in Experiment 2. For the seven paintings in which no meaningful content at all was detected, 41% of the variance in orientation judgements was shared with variance in a physical measure of image content, Fourier amplitude spectrum slope. For some paintings, orientation judgements were quite consistent, despite a lack of meaningful content. The origin of these orientation judgements remains to be identified.

Group elicitations yield more consistent, yet more uncertain experts in understanding risks to ecosystem services in New Zealand bays

KAUST Repository

Singh, Gerald G.; Sinner, Jim; Ellis, Joanne; Kandlikar, Milind; Halpern, Benjamin S.; Satterfield, Terre; Chan, Kai

2017-01-01

The elicitation of expert judgment is an important tool for assessment of risks and impacts in environmental management contexts, and especially important as decision-makers face novel challenges where prior empirical research is lacking or insufficient. Evidence-driven elicitation approaches typically involve techniques to derive more accurate probability distributions under fairly specific contexts. Experts are, however, prone to overconfidence in their judgements. Group elicitations with diverse experts can reduce expert overconfidence by allowing cross-examination and reassessment of prior judgements, but groups are also prone to uncritical

Group elicitations yield more consistent, yet more uncertain experts in understanding risks to ecosystem services in New Zealand bays

KAUST Repository

Singh, Gerald G.

2017-08-02

The elicitation of expert judgment is an important tool for assessment of risks and impacts in environmental management contexts, and especially important as decision-makers face novel challenges where prior empirical research is lacking or insufficient. Evidence-driven elicitation approaches typically involve techniques to derive more accurate probability distributions under fairly specific contexts. Experts are, however, prone to overconfidence in their judgements. Group elicitations with diverse experts can reduce expert overconfidence by allowing cross-examination and reassessment of prior judgements, but groups are also prone to uncritical

The use of expert opinion for estimation of component unavailability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jordan Cizelj, R.; Kljenak, I.

1998-01-01

When evaluating system safety with Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA), data of component reliability are necessary input data. Despite a significant effort which has been devoted to the collection and processing of reliability data during the last ten years, the quality of data available is still not satisfactory. In the present paper, a method for a suitable failure rate estimation with the help of expert judgement of maintenance people is proposed. Expert judgement about component state is combined with information gathered from a classical reliability database. With the proposed method, generic data are adapted to specific components with combination of probability and fuzzy logic theory.(author)

Integration of professional judgement and decision-making in high-level adventure sports coaching practice.

Science.gov (United States)

Collins, Loel; Collins, Dave

2015-01-01

This study examined the integration of professional judgement and decision-making processes in adventure sports coaching. The study utilised a thematic analysis approach to investigate the decision-making practices of a sample of high-level adventure sports coaches over a series of sessions. Results revealed that, in order to make judgements and decisions in practice, expert coaches employ a range of practical and pedagogic management strategies to create and opportunistically use time for decision-making. These approaches include span of control and time management strategies to facilitate the decision-making process regarding risk management, venue selection, aims, objectives, session content, and differentiation of the coaching process. The implication for coaches, coach education, and accreditation is the recognition and training of the approaches that "create time" for the judgements in practice, namely "creating space to think". The paper concludes by offering a template for a more expertise-focused progression in adventure sports coaching.

Teachers' professional judgement in real teaching situations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mikkelsen, Sidse Hølvig; Daugbjerg, Peer; Sommer, Lise

2017-01-01

Teachers' daily work is complex consisting of teaching, dialogue with pupils, principals, colleagues, parents besides a variety of daily supervision tasks. This entails that the teachers' workdays are loaded with judgements, evaluations, reflections and actions founded on reasonable considerations....... Teachers' capability to make sensible judgements in pedagogical situations and moments are based on their personal norms and knowledge. Norms and knowledge that makes it possible for them to make well-considered decisions regarding good teaching. Teachers' planned changes in teaching are typically well...... as well as unconscious and they are expressed bodily and verbally. The presentation will discuss methodological approach on how to investigate teachers' professional judgement. We will use video recordings of actual teaching situations to generate dialogue with the participating teachers. The dialogue...

Induced seismicity hazard and risk by enhanced geothermal systems: an expert elicitation approach

Science.gov (United States)

Trutnevyte, Evelina; Azevedo, Inês L.

2018-03-01

Induced seismicity is a concern for multiple geoenergy applications, including low-carbon enhanced geothermal systems (EGS). We present the results of an international expert elicitation (n = 14) on EGS induced seismicity hazard and risk. Using a hypothetical scenario of an EGS plant and its geological context, we show that expert best-guess estimates of annualized exceedance probabilities of an M ≥ 3 event range from 0.2%-95% during reservoir stimulation and 0.2%-100% during operation. Best-guess annualized exceedance probabilities of M ≥ 5 event span from 0.002%-2% during stimulation and 0.003%-3% during operation. Assuming that tectonic M7 events could occur, some experts do not exclude induced (triggered) events of up to M7 too. If an induced M = 3 event happens at 5 km depth beneath a town with 10 000 inhabitants, most experts estimate a 50% probability that the loss is contained within 500 000 USD without any injuries or fatalities. In the case of an induced M = 5 event, there is 50% chance that the loss is below 50 million USD with the most-likely outcome of 50 injuries and one fatality or none. As we observe a vast diversity in quantitative expert judgements and underlying mental models, we conclude with implications for induced seismicity risk governance. That is, we suggest documenting individual expert judgements in induced seismicity elicitations before proceeding to consensual judgements, to convene larger expert panels in order not to cherry-pick the experts, and to aim for multi-organization multi-model assessments of EGS induced seismicity hazard and risk.

NATO Guide for Judgement-Based Operational Analysis in Defence Decision Making : Analyst-Oriented Volume - Code of Best Practice for Soft Operational Analysis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wijnmalen, D.J.D.; et al

2012-01-01

Judgment plays an important role in all Operational Analysis (OA). NATO practitioners have determined that approaches in OA that are based on human judgement are increasingly critical to defence decision making. The purpose of the NATO Guide for Judgement-Based OA in Defence Decision Making is to

Research bias in judgement bias studies : a systematic review of valuation judgement literature

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Vincent Gruis; Pim Klamer; Cok Bakker

2017-01-01

Valuation judgement bias has been a research topic for several years due to its proclaimed effect on valuation accuracy. However, little is known on the emphasis of literature on judgement bias, with regard to, for instance, research methodologies, research context and robustness of research

Research bias in judgement bias studies : A systematic review of valuation judgement literature

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Klamer, Pim; Bakker, C.; Gruis, Vincent

2017-01-01

Valuation judgement bias has been a research topic for several years due to its proclaimed effect on valuation accuracy. However, little is known on the emphasis of literature on judgement bias, with regard to, for instance, research methodologies, research context and robustness of research

The judgement process in evidence-based medicine and health technology assessment

OpenAIRE

Kelly, Michael P; Moore, Tessa A

2011-01-01

This article describes the judgements used to interpret evidence in evidence-based medicine (EBM) and health technology assessment (HTA). It outlines the methods and processes of EBM and HTA. Respectively, EBM and HTA are approaches to medical clinical decision making and efficient allocation of scarce health resources. At the heart of both is a concern to review and synthesise evidence, especially evidence derived from randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of clinical effectiveness. The driver...

Computers start to think with expert systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1983-03-21

A growing number of professionals-notably in oil and mineral exploration, plasma research, medicine, VLSI circuit design, drug design and robotics-are beginning to use computerised expert systems. A computer program uses knowledge and inference procedures to solve problems which are sufficiently difficult to require significant human expertise for their solution. The facts constitute a body of information that is widely shared, publicly available and generally agreed upon by experts in the field. The heuristics are mostly private, and little discussed, rules of good judgement (rules of plausible reasoning, rules of good guessing, etc.) that characterise expert-level decision making in the field.

Tacit knowledge as the unifying factor in evidence based medicine and clinical judgement.

Science.gov (United States)

Thornton, Tim

2006-03-17

The paper outlines the role that tacit knowledge plays in what might seem to be an area of knowledge that can be made fully explicit or codified and which forms a central element of Evidence Based Medicine. Appeal to the role the role of tacit knowledge in science provides a way to unify the tripartite definition of Evidence Based Medicine given by Sackett et al: the integration of best research evidence with clinical expertise and patient values. Each of these three elements, crucially including research evidence, rests on an ineliminable and irreducible notion of uncodified good judgement. The paper focuses on research evidence, drawing first on the work of Kuhn to suggest that tacit knowledge contributes, as a matter of fact, to puzzle solving within what he calls normal science. A stronger argument that it must play a role in research is first motivated by looking to Collins' first hand account of replication in applied physics and then broader considerations of replication in justifying knowledge claims in scientific research. Finally, consideration of an argument from Wittgenstein shows that whatever explicit guidelines can be drawn up to guide judgement the specification of what counts as correctly following them has to remain implicit.Overall, the paper sets out arguments for the claim that even though explicit guidelines and codifications can play a practical role in informing clinical practice, they rest on a body of tacit or implicit skill that is in principle ineliminable. It forms the bedrock of good judgement and unites the integration of research, expertise and values.

The Method of Adaptive Comparative Judgement

Science.gov (United States)

Pollitt, Alastair

2012-01-01

Adaptive Comparative Judgement (ACJ) is a modification of Thurstone's method of comparative judgement that exploits the power of adaptivity, but in scoring rather than testing. Professional judgement by teachers replaces the marking of tests; a judge is asked to compare the work of two students and simply to decide which of them is the better.…

On the use of judgement in probabilistic risk analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Apostolakis, G

1986-05-01

The extensive use of judgement in risk studies creates several issues related to the perception of probabilities and the value of formal theories for uncertainty analysis. The direct assessment of probability distributions may lead to biased curves that do not represent the state of knowledge of the assessors. The use of formal methods and the calibration of the analysts help alleviate some of these biases. Case studies involving the assessment of probability distributions for human error rates and for failure rates of components exemplify the importance of the careful use of expert opinions in risk studies.

The judgement process in evidence-based medicine and health technology assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Kelly, Michael P; Moore, Tessa A

2012-02-01

This article describes the judgements used to interpret evidence in evidence-based medicine (EBM) and health technology assessment (HTA). It outlines the methods and processes of EBM and HTA. Respectively, EBM and HTA are approaches to medical clinical decision making and efficient allocation of scarce health resources. At the heart of both is a concern to review and synthesise evidence, especially evidence derived from randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of clinical effectiveness. The driver of the approach of both is a desire to eliminate, or at least reduce, bias. The hierarchy of evidence, which is used as an indicator of the likelihood of bias, features heavily in the process and methods of EBM and HTA. The epistemological underpinnings of EBM and HTA are explored with particular reference to the distinction between rationalism and empiricism, developed by the philosopher David Hume and elaborated by Immanuel Kant in the Critique of Pure Reason. The importance of Humian and Kantian principles for understanding the projects of EBM and HTA is considered and the ways in which decisions are made in both, within a judgemental framework originally outlined by Kant, are explored.

The judgement process in evidence-based medicine and health technology assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Kelly, Michael P; Moore, Tessa A

2012-01-01

This article describes the judgements used to interpret evidence in evidence-based medicine (EBM) and health technology assessment (HTA). It outlines the methods and processes of EBM and HTA. Respectively, EBM and HTA are approaches to medical clinical decision making and efficient allocation of scarce health resources. At the heart of both is a concern to review and synthesise evidence, especially evidence derived from randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of clinical effectiveness. The driver of the approach of both is a desire to eliminate, or at least reduce, bias. The hierarchy of evidence, which is used as an indicator of the likelihood of bias, features heavily in the process and methods of EBM and HTA. The epistemological underpinnings of EBM and HTA are explored with particular reference to the distinction between rationalism and empiricism, developed by the philosopher David Hume and elaborated by Immanuel Kant in the Critique of Pure Reason. The importance of Humian and Kantian principles for understanding the projects of EBM and HTA is considered and the ways in which decisions are made in both, within a judgemental framework originally outlined by Kant, are explored. PMID:23226973

Group prioritisation with unknown expert weights in incomplete linguistic context

Science.gov (United States)

Cheng, Dong; Cheng, Faxin; Zhou, Zhili; Wang, Juan

2017-09-01

In this paper, we study a group prioritisation problem in situations when the expert weights are completely unknown and their judgement preferences are linguistic and incomplete. Starting from the theory of relative entropy (RE) and multiplicative consistency, an optimisation model is provided for deriving an individual priority vector without estimating the missing value(s) of an incomplete linguistic preference relation. In order to address the unknown expert weights in the group aggregating process, we define two new kinds of expert weight indicators based on RE: proximity entropy weight and similarity entropy weight. Furthermore, a dynamic-adjusting algorithm (DAA) is proposed to obtain an objective expert weight vector and capture the dynamic properties involved in it. Unlike the extant literature of group prioritisation, the proposed RE approach does not require pre-allocation of expert weights and can solve incomplete preference relations. An interesting finding is that once all the experts express their preference relations, the final expert weight vector derived from the DAA is fixed irrespective of the initial settings of expert weights. Finally, an application example is conducted to validate the effectiveness and robustness of the RE approach.

Moral judgement by the disconnected left and right cerebral hemispheres: a split-brain investigation.

Science.gov (United States)

Steckler, Conor M; Hamlin, J Kiley; Miller, Michael B; King, Danielle; Kingstone, Alan

2017-07-01

Owing to the hemispheric isolation resulting from a severed corpus callosum, research on split-brain patients can help elucidate the brain regions necessary and sufficient for moral judgement. Notably, typically developing adults heavily weight the intentions underlying others' moral actions, placing greater importance on valenced intentions versus outcomes when assigning praise and blame. Prioritization of intent in moral judgements may depend on neural activity in the right hemisphere's temporoparietal junction, an area implicated in reasoning about mental states. To date, split-brain research has found that the right hemisphere is necessary for intent-based moral judgement. When testing the left hemisphere using linguistically based moral vignettes, split-brain patients evaluate actions based on outcomes, not intentions. Because the right hemisphere has limited language ability relative to the left, and morality paradigms to date have involved significant linguistic demands, it is currently unknown whether the right hemisphere alone generates intent-based judgements. Here we use nonlinguistic morality plays with split-brain patient J.W. to examine the moral judgements of the disconnected right hemisphere, demonstrating a clear focus on intent. This finding indicates that the right hemisphere is not only necessary but also sufficient for intent-based moral judgement, advancing research into the neural systems supporting the moral sense.

Clinical judgement in the era of big data and predictive analytics.

Science.gov (United States)

Chin-Yee, Benjamin; Upshur, Ross

2017-12-13

Clinical judgement is a central and longstanding issue in the philosophy of medicine which has generated significant interest over the past few decades. In this article, we explore different approaches to clinical judgement articulated in the literature, focusing in particular on data-driven, mathematical approaches which we contrast with narrative, virtue-based approaches to clinical reasoning. We discuss the tension between these different clinical epistemologies and further explore the implications of big data and machine learning for a philosophy of clinical judgement. We argue for a pluralistic, integrative approach, and demonstrate how narrative, virtue-based clinical reasoning will remain indispensable in an era of big data and predictive analytics. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Pengaruh Pengalaman Auditor Terhadap Ethical Judgement

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nujmatul Laily

2011-12-01

Full Text Available ABSTRACT: The Effect of Auditor’s Experience on Ethical Judgement. This research examines the effect of auditor’s experience on ethical judgement with auditor’s knowledge and professional commitment as intervening variable. By 82 public accountants were taken as samples.Data collection is done by mail survey and is empirically examined by using path analysis.The results shows that auditor’s experience has direct effect on ethical judgment but it has negative effect with auditor’s knowledge becomes an intervening variable. Auditor’s experience has direct effect on auditor’s knowledge and professional commitment. This study finds no relationship between professional commitment and ethical judgement. The finding of research concludes that experience and knowledge are determinants of ethical judgement.

Professional nurses' understanding of clinical judgement: A contextual inquiry

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anna C. van Graan

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Higher cognitive skills are essential competencies for nurses joining the technologically and increasingly complex health care environment to provide safe and effective nursing care. Educators and clinical facilitators have recognised that newly qualified nurses do not meet the expectations for entry level clinical judgement and are held accountable for finding adequate learning experiences as preparation for such practice demands. An explorative and descriptive qualitative design was followed in this study to reach an understanding of clinical judgement in the clinical nursing environment from the perspective of professional nurses. Eleven professional nurses (n = 11 working at primary health care clinics, public and private hospitals participated voluntarily. Data was collected by means of the “World Café” method, incorporating a combination of techniques such as interviewing, discussions, drawings, narratives and reflection. The focus was on professional nurses' knowledge of the meaning of clinical judgement and factors influencing the development of clinical judgement in the clinical environment. Qualitative thematic content analysis principles were applied during data analysis. The findings were integrated with the relevant literature to culminate in conclusions that should add to the knowledge base of clinical judgement as an essential skill for improving autonomous and accountable nursing care.

Professional nurses' understanding of clinical judgement: A contextual inquiry

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anna C. van Graan

2016-10-01

Full Text Available Higher cognitive skills are essential competencies for nurses joining the technologically and increasingly complex health care environment to provide safe and effective nursing care. Educators and clinical facilitators have recognised that newly qualified nurses do not meet the expectations for entry level clinical judgement and are held accountable for finding adequate learning experiences as preparation for such practice demands. An explorative and descriptive qualitative design was followed in this study to reach an understanding of clinical judgement in the clinical nursing environment from the perspective of professional nurses. Eleven professional nurses (n = 11 working at primary health care clinics, public and private hospitals participated voluntarily. Data was collected by means of the “World Cafe” method, incorporating a combination of techniques such as interviewing, discussions, drawings, narratives and reflection. The focus was on professional nurses' knowledge of the meaning of clinical judgement and factors influencing the development of clinical judgement in the clinical environment. Qualitative thematic content analysis principles were applied during data analysis. The findings were integrated with the relevant literature to culminate in conclusions that should add to the knowledge base of clinical judgement as an essential skill for improving autonomous and accountable nursing care.

Clinical judgement and the emotions.

Science.gov (United States)

Boyd, G

2014-07-01

The basic emotions are more important in decision making than we think. So we need to be aware of them and look not just for rationality in our clinical judgements but rational judgements that 'feel' right. © 2014 The Authors; Internal Medicine Journal © 2014 Royal Australasian College of Physicians.

Site Specific Probable Maximum Precipitation Estimates and Professional Judgement

Science.gov (United States)

Hayes, B. D.; Kao, S. C.; Kanney, J. F.; Quinlan, K. R.; DeNeale, S. T.

2015-12-01

State and federal regulatory authorities currently rely upon the US National Weather Service Hydrometeorological Reports (HMRs) to determine probable maximum precipitation (PMP) estimates (i.e., rainfall depths and durations) for estimating flooding hazards for relatively broad regions in the US. PMP estimates for the contributing watersheds upstream of vulnerable facilities are used to estimate riverine flooding hazards while site-specific estimates for small water sheds are appropriate for individual facilities such as nuclear power plants. The HMRs are often criticized due to their limitations on basin size, questionable applicability in regions affected by orographic effects, their lack of consist methods, and generally by their age. HMR-51 for generalized PMP estimates for the United States east of the 105th meridian, was published in 1978 and is sometimes perceived as overly conservative. The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), is currently reviewing several flood hazard evaluation reports that rely on site specific PMP estimates that have been commercially developed. As such, NRC has recently investigated key areas of expert judgement via a generic audit and one in-depth site specific review as they relate to identifying and quantifying actual and potential storm moisture sources, determining storm transposition limits, and adjusting available moisture during storm transposition. Though much of the approach reviewed was considered a logical extension of HMRs, two key points of expert judgement stood out for further in-depth review. The first relates primarily to small storms and the use of a heuristic for storm representative dew point adjustment developed for the Electric Power Research Institute by North American Weather Consultants in 1993 in order to harmonize historic storms for which only 12 hour dew point data was available with more recent storms in a single database. The second issue relates to the use of climatological averages for spatially

Computer Based Expert Systems.

Science.gov (United States)

Parry, James D.; Ferrara, Joseph M.

1985-01-01

Claims knowledge-based expert computer systems can meet needs of rural schools for affordable expert advice and support and will play an important role in the future of rural education. Describes potential applications in prediction, interpretation, diagnosis, remediation, planning, monitoring, and instruction. (NEC)

Use of questionnaires and an expert panel to judge the environmental consequences of chemical spills for the development of an environment-accident index.

Science.gov (United States)

Andersson, Asa Scott; Stjernström, Olof; Fängmark, Ingrid

2005-05-01

Assessing the environmental consequences of a chemical accident is a complex task. To date, the methods used to evaluate the environmental effects of an acute release of a chemical have often been based on measurements of chemical and physical variables deemed to be important, such as the concentration of the chemical. However, a broader strategy is needed to predict the environmental consequences of potential accidents during the planning process. An Environment-Accident Index (EAI), a simple tool based on such a strategy, has been developed to facilitate the consideration of a multitude of influential variables. The objectives of this study were to evaluate whether questionnaire-based expert panel's judgements could provide useful data on the environmental consequences of chemical spills, and an effective basis for further development of the EAI. As expected, the judgements did not agree perfectly, but they do give rough indications of the environmental effects, and highlight consistent trends that should be useful inputs for planning, prevention and decontamination processes. The different accidents were also judged to have caused everything from minor to very major effects in the environment, implying that a wide range of accident scenarios were represented in the material and covered by the EAI. Therefore, questionnaires and expert panel judgements can be used to collect useful data for estimating the likely environmental consequences of chemical accidents and for further development of the EAI.

Factors influencing societal response of nanotechnology: an expert stakeholder analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gupta, Nidhi; Fischer, Arnout R. H.; Lans, Ivo A. van der; Frewer, Lynn J.

2012-01-01

Nanotechnology can be described as an emerging technology and, as has been the case with other emerging technologies such as genetic modification, different socio-psychological factors will potentially influence societal responses to its development and application. These factors will play an important role in how nanotechnology is developed and commercialised. This article aims to identify expert opinion on factors influencing societal response to applications of nanotechnology. Structured interviews with experts on nanotechnology from North West Europe were conducted using repertory grid methodology in conjunction with generalized Procrustes analysis to examine the psychological constructs underlying societal uptake of 15 key applications of nanotechnology drawn from different areas (e.g. medicine, agriculture and environment, chemical, food, military, sports, and cosmetics). Based on expert judgement, the main factors influencing societal response to different applications of nanotechnology will be the extent to which applications are perceived to be beneficial, useful, and necessary, and how 'real' and physically close to the end-user these applications are perceived to be by the public.

Factors influencing societal response of nanotechnology: an expert stakeholder analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Gupta, Nidhi; Fischer, Arnout R. H.; van der Lans, Ivo A.; Frewer, Lynn J.

2012-05-01

Nanotechnology can be described as an emerging technology and, as has been the case with other emerging technologies such as genetic modification, different socio-psychological factors will potentially influence societal responses to its development and application. These factors will play an important role in how nanotechnology is developed and commercialised. This article aims to identify expert opinion on factors influencing societal response to applications of nanotechnology. Structured interviews with experts on nanotechnology from North West Europe were conducted using repertory grid methodology in conjunction with generalized Procrustes analysis to examine the psychological constructs underlying societal uptake of 15 key applications of nanotechnology drawn from different areas (e.g. medicine, agriculture and environment, chemical, food, military, sports, and cosmetics). Based on expert judgement, the main factors influencing societal response to different applications of nanotechnology will be the extent to which applications are perceived to be beneficial, useful, and necessary, and how 'real' and physically close to the end-user these applications are perceived to be by the public.

Recognition and Judgement in Social Work

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Juul, Søren

2009-01-01

to recognition. In the first part, I outline the normative ideal and show its relevance for practical social work on the basis of social clients' experiences of disrespect. In the second, I expalin the concept of judgement and criticise the prevailing forms of judgement to be found in the social institutions...

Judgement in achieving protection against radiation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Taylor, L.S.

1980-01-01

This article includes the following topics: Ionizing radiation as a toxic agent; value judgement in establishing protection standards; origin of radiation protection standards; numerical radiation protection standards; exposure of populations; the proportional dose-effect relationship; assumptions involved in the proportional dose-effect relationship and a continued need for value judgement

Study on judgement baseline for XRF on-line detection system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang Quanshi; Bao Min

2000-01-01

Based on the Signal Detection Theory (SDT) and the statistics principle, the choice method of judgement baseline was studied. According to the characteristics of X-ray Fluorescence (XRF) spectra in the on-line detection system, the calculation methods for the characteristic peak of the element-tagged and background were carried out. The complex judgement baseline were rationally selected after a lot of experiments and analyzing. The operating results of near one year show that it is available

Vulnerability of bridges to scour: insights from an international expert elicitation workshop

Science.gov (United States)

Lamb, Rob; Aspinall, Willy; Odbert, Henry; Wagener, Thorsten

2017-08-01

Scour (localised erosion) during flood events is one of the most significant threats to bridges over rivers and estuaries, and has been the cause of numerous bridge failures, with damaging consequences. Mitigation of the risk of bridges being damaged by scour is therefore important to many infrastructure owners, and is supported by industry guidance. Even after mitigation, some residual risk remains, though its extent is difficult to quantify because of the uncertainties inherent in the prediction of scour and the assessment of the scour risk. This paper summarises findings from an international expert workshop on bridge scour risk assessment that explores uncertainties about the vulnerability of bridges to scour. Two specialised structured elicitation methods were applied to explore the factors that experts in the field consider important when assessing scour risk and to derive pooled expert judgements of bridge failure probabilities that are conditional on a range of assumed scenarios describing flood event severity, bridge and watercourse types and risk mitigation protocols. The experts' judgements broadly align with industry good practice, but indicate significant uncertainty about quantitative estimates of bridge failure probabilities, reflecting the difficulty in assessing the residual risk of failure. The data and findings presented here could provide a useful context for the development of generic scour fragility models and their associated uncertainties.

Normative and descriptive accounts of the influence of power and contingency on causal judgement.

Science.gov (United States)

Perales, José C; Shanks, David R

2003-08-01

The power PC theory (Cheng, 1997) is a normative account of causal inference, which predicts that causal judgements are based on the power p of a potential cause, where p is the cause-effect contingency normalized by the base rate of the effect. In three experiments we demonstrate that both cause-effect contingency and effect base-rate independently affect estimates in causal learning tasks. In Experiment 1, causal strength judgements were directly related to power p in a task in which the effect base-rate was manipulated across two positive and two negative contingency conditions. In Experiments 2 and 3 contingency manipulations affected causal estimates in several situations in which power p was held constant, contrary to the power PC theory's predictions. This latter effect cannot be explained by participants' conflation of reliability and causal strength, as Experiment 3 demonstrated independence of causal judgements and confidence. From a descriptive point of view, the data are compatible with Pearce's (1987) model, as well as with several other judgement rules, but not with the Rescorla-Wagner (Rescorla & Wagner, 1972) or power PC models.

TU Delft expert judgment data base

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cooke, Roger M.; Goossens, Louis L.H.J.

2008-01-01

We review the applications of structured expert judgment uncertainty quantification using the 'classical model' developed at the Delft University of Technology over the last 17 years [Cooke RM. Experts in uncertainty. Oxford: Oxford University Press; 1991; Expert judgment study on atmospheric dispersion and deposition. Report Faculty of Technical Mathematics and Informatics No.01-81, Delft University of Technology; 1991]. These involve 45 expert panels, performed under contract with problem owners who reviewed and approved the results. With a few exceptions, all these applications involved the use of seed variables; that is, variables from the experts' area of expertise for which the true values are available post hoc. Seed variables are used to (1) measure expert performance, (2) enable performance-based weighted combination of experts' distributions, and (3) evaluate and hopefully validate the resulting combination or 'decision maker'. This article reviews the classical model for structured expert judgment and the performance measures, reviews applications, comparing performance-based decision makers with 'equal weight' decision makers, and collects some lessons learned

New criteria for inflammatory back pain in patients with chronic back pain: a real patient exercise by experts from the Assessment of SpondyloArthritis international Society (ASAS).

Science.gov (United States)

Sieper, J; van der Heijde, D; Landewé, R; Brandt, J; Burgos-Vagas, R; Collantes-Estevez, E; Dijkmans, B; Dougados, M; Khan, M A; Leirisalo-Repo, M; van der Linden, S; Maksymowych, W P; Mielants, H; Olivieri, I; Rudwaleit, M

2009-06-01

Inflammatory back pain (IBP) is an important clinical symptom in patients with axial spondyloarthritis (SpA), and relevant for classification and diagnosis. In the present report, a new approach for the development of IBP classification criteria is discussed. Rheumatologists (n = 13) who are experts in SpA took part in a 2-day international workshop to investigate 20 patients with back pain and possible SpA. Each expert documented the presence/absence of clinical parameters typical for IBP, and judged whether IBP was considered present or absent based on the received information. This expert judgement was used as the dependent variable in a logistic regression analysis in order to identify those individual IBP parameters that contributed best to a diagnosis of IBP. The new set of IBP criteria was validated in a separate cohort of patients (n = 648). Five parameters best explained IBP according to the experts. These were: (1) improvement with exercise (odds ratio (OR) 23.1); (2) pain at night (OR 20.4); (3) insidious onset (OR 12.7); (4) age at onset validation cohort. This new approach with real patients defines a set of IBP definition criteria using overall expert judgement on IBP as the gold standard. The IBP experts' criteria are robust, easy to apply and have good face validity.

The role of engineering judgement, safety culture, and organizational factors in risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Muzumdar, Ajit; Professor, Visiting

1996-01-01

This paper reviews the role of engineering judgement, safety culture, and organizational factors in risk assessment by examining the reasons for human-based error. The need for more emphasis on producing engineers with good engineering judgement is described. The progress in quantifying the role of safety culture and organizational factors in risk assessment studies is summarized

Factors influencing societal response of nanotechnology: an expert stakeholder analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gupta, Nidhi, E-mail: nidhi.gupta@wur.nl; Fischer, Arnout R. H., E-mail: arnout.fischer@wur.nl; Lans, Ivo A. van der, E-mail: Ivo.vanderLans@wur.nl [Wageningen University, Marketing and Consumer Behaviour Group (Netherlands); Frewer, Lynn J., E-mail: lynn.frewer@newcastle.ac.uk [Newcastle University, School of Agriculture, Food and Rural Development (United Kingdom)

2012-05-15

Nanotechnology can be described as an emerging technology and, as has been the case with other emerging technologies such as genetic modification, different socio-psychological factors will potentially influence societal responses to its development and application. These factors will play an important role in how nanotechnology is developed and commercialised. This article aims to identify expert opinion on factors influencing societal response to applications of nanotechnology. Structured interviews with experts on nanotechnology from North West Europe were conducted using repertory grid methodology in conjunction with generalized Procrustes analysis to examine the psychological constructs underlying societal uptake of 15 key applications of nanotechnology drawn from different areas (e.g. medicine, agriculture and environment, chemical, food, military, sports, and cosmetics). Based on expert judgement, the main factors influencing societal response to different applications of nanotechnology will be the extent to which applications are perceived to be beneficial, useful, and necessary, and how 'real' and physically close to the end-user these applications are perceived to be by the public.

Development of reflective judgement in the pre-doctoral dental clinical curriculum.

Science.gov (United States)

Boyd, L D

2008-08-01

When dental students begin patient care in the clinical curriculum, they are required to move from the well-defined problems of the classroom to the more ambiguous and real life problems encountered in the context of patient care in the clinical setting. This change in learning environment requires development of reflective thinking. Reflective thinking refers to the process of thinking about uncertainty or ill-defined problems. King and Kitchener refer to the outcome of the reflective thinking process as reflective judgement. The purpose of this study was to explore the development of reflective judgement in the initial phase of the clinical curriculum. This exploratory study used a case study approach with qualitative methods. A convenience sample of third year predoctoral dental students (n = 16) volunteered to participate in writing a clinic journal and semi-structured interviews at three time points over a time period of one year. Student compliance in writing clinical journals was poor; therefore the qualitative data was primarily gathered from interview transcripts. The qualitative interview data were analysed using a coding scheme based on King and Kitchener's Reflective Judgement Model of Intellectual Development. The Cronbach alpha was 0.76 for reliability of the coding scheme. Based on the analysis of interview data, the there was an average growth in reflective judgement over the year from Stage 4.89 to 5.59 for an overall change of +0.70. Additional research is needed to explore the growth in reflective judgement over the final year of the clinical curriculum as well as to identify the most effective educational strategies to facilitate growth in reflective judgment.

Vulnerability of bridges to scour: insights from an international expert elicitation workshop

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. Lamb

2017-08-01

Full Text Available Scour (localised erosion during flood events is one of the most significant threats to bridges over rivers and estuaries, and has been the cause of numerous bridge failures, with damaging consequences. Mitigation of the risk of bridges being damaged by scour is therefore important to many infrastructure owners, and is supported by industry guidance. Even after mitigation, some residual risk remains, though its extent is difficult to quantify because of the uncertainties inherent in the prediction of scour and the assessment of the scour risk. This paper summarises findings from an international expert workshop on bridge scour risk assessment that explores uncertainties about the vulnerability of bridges to scour. Two specialised structured elicitation methods were applied to explore the factors that experts in the field consider important when assessing scour risk and to derive pooled expert judgements of bridge failure probabilities that are conditional on a range of assumed scenarios describing flood event severity, bridge and watercourse types and risk mitigation protocols. The experts' judgements broadly align with industry good practice, but indicate significant uncertainty about quantitative estimates of bridge failure probabilities, reflecting the difficulty in assessing the residual risk of failure. The data and findings presented here could provide a useful context for the development of generic scour fragility models and their associated uncertainties.

Expert judgement on inadvertent human intrusion into the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hora, S.C.; von Winterfeldt, D.; Trauth, K.M.

1991-12-01

Four expert-judgment teams have developed analyses delineating possible future societies in the next 10,000 years in the vicinity of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). Expert-judgment analysis was used to address the question of future societies because neither experimentation, observation, nor modeling can resolve such uncertainties. Each of the four, four-member teams, comprised of individuals with expertise in the physical, social, or political sciences, developed detailed qualitative assessments of possible future societies. These assessments include detailed discussions of the underlying physical and societal factors that would influence society and the likely modes of human-intrusion at the WIPP, as well as the probabilities of intrusion. Technological development, population growth, economic development, conservation of information, persistence of government control, and mitigation of danger from nuclear waste were the factors the teams believed to be most important. Likely modes of human-intrusion were categorized as excavation, disposal/storage, tunneling, drilling, and offsite activities. Each team also developed quantitative assessments by providing probabilities of various alternative futures, of inadvertent human intrusion, and in some cases, of particular modes of intrusion. The information created throughout this study will be used in conjunction with other types of information, including experimental data, calculations from physical principles and computer models, and perhaps other judgments, as input to ''performance assessment.'' The more qualitative results of this study will be used as input to another expert panel considering markers to deter inadvertent human intrusion at the WIPP

Moderation and Consistency of Teacher Judgement: Teachers' Views

Science.gov (United States)

Connolly, Stephen; Klenowski, Valentina; Wyatt-Smith, Claire Maree

2012-01-01

Major curriculum and assessment reforms in Australia have generated research interest in issues related to standards, teacher judgement and moderation. This article is based on one related inquiry of a large-scale Australian Research Council Linkage project conducted in Queensland. This qualitative study analysed interview data to identify…

Judgement on Windscale

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roberts, G.C.; White, I.F.

1978-01-01

A summary is given of the findings of the report on the Windscale Inquiry into the application by British Nuclear Fuels Limited for planning permission to establish a plant for reprocessing irradiated oxide nuclear fuels (The Windscale Inquiry. Report by the Hon. Mr. Justice Parker, 26 January 1978, Vol.1, Report and Annexes 3 to 5, HMSO). Particular attention is given to comments in the report on the ICRP and NRPB, radiation protection standards, and the risks associated with fuel reprocessing. The bases of the judgements made are given, together with Mr. Justice Parker's recommenda-tions for the setting of discharge limits, monitoring discharges and levels of environmental radioactivity, and the assessment of what constitutes a tolerable risk to the public. (U.K)

A test to identify judgement bias in mice

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Boleij, H.; van't Klooster, J.; Lavrijsen, M.; Kirchhoff, S.; Arndt, S.S.; Ohl, F.

2012-01-01

Emotional states are known to affect cognitive processes. For example highly anxious individuals interpret ambiguous stimuli more negatively than low anxious people, an effect called negative judgement bias. Recently, the measurement of judgement bias has been used to try and indicate emotional

Clinical judgement and the medical profession

Science.gov (United States)

Kienle, Gunver S; Kiene, Helmut

2011-01-01

Objectives Clinical judgment is a central element of the medical profession, essential for the performance of the doctor, and potentially generating information also for other clinicians and for scientists and health care managers. The recently renewed interest in clinical judgement is primarily engaged with its role in communication, diagnosis and decision making. Beyond this issue, the present article highlights the interrelations between clinical judgement, therapy assessment and medical professionalism. Methods Literature review and theory development. Results The article presents different methodological approaches to causality assessment in clinical studies and in clinical judgement, and offers criteria for clinical single case causality. The article outlines models of medical professionalism such as technical rationality and practice epistemology, and characterizes features of professional expertise such as tacit knowledge, reflection in action, and gestalt cognition. Conclusions Consequences of a methodological and logistical advancement of clinical judgment are discussed, both in regard to medical progress and to the renewel of the cognitive basis of the medical profession. PMID:20973873

Metacomprehension judgements reflect the belief that diagrams improve learning from text.

Science.gov (United States)

Serra, Michael J; Dunlosky, John

2010-10-01

In two experiments we systematically explored whether people consider the format of text materials when judging their text learning, and whether doing so might inappropriately bias their judgements. Participants studied either text with diagrams (multimedia) or text alone and made both per-paragraph judgements and global judgements of their text learning. In Experiment 1 they judged their learning to be better for text with diagrams than for text alone. In that study, however, test performance was greater for multimedia, so the judgements may reflect either a belief in the power of multimedia or on-line processing. Experiment 2 replicated this finding and also included a third group that read texts with pictures that did not improve text performance. Judgements made by this group were just as high as those made by participants who received the effective multimedia format. These results confirm the hypothesis that people's metacomprehension judgements can be influenced by their beliefs about text format. Over-reliance on this multimedia heuristic, however, might reduce judgement accuracy in situations where it is invalid.

Expert opinions on carbon dioxide capture and storage-A framing of uncertainties and possibilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hansson, Anders; Bryngelsson, Marten

2009-01-01

There are many uncertainties and knowledge gaps regarding the development of carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS)-e.g., when it comes to costs, life-cycle effects, storage capacity and permanence. In spite of these uncertainties and barriers, the CCS research community is generally very optimistic regarding CCS' development. The discrepancy between the uncertainties and the optimism is the point of departure in this study, which is based on interviews with 24 CCS experts. The aim is to analyse experts' framings of CCS with focus on two key aspects: (i) the function and potential of CCS and (ii) uncertainties. The optimism among the CCS experts is tentatively explained. The interpretative flexibility of CCS is claimed to be an essential explanation for the optimism. CCS is promoted from a wide variety of perspectives, e.g., solidarity and peace, bridge to a sustainable energy system, sustaining the modern lifestyle and compatibility with the fossil fuel lock-in. Awareness of the uncertainties and potential over-optimism is warranted within policy and decision making as they often rely on scientific forecasts and experts' judgements.

Expert opinions on carbon dioxide capture and storage-A framing of uncertainties and possibilities

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hansson, Anders [Linkoeping University, Department of Technology and Social Change, SE-58183 Linkoeping (Sweden); Linkoeping University, Centre for Climate Science and Policy Research, SE-60174 Norrkoeping (Sweden); Bryngelsson, Marten [KTH, School of Chemical Sciences, Teknikringen 50, SE-10044 Stockholm (Sweden)], E-mail: mrtn@kth.se

2009-06-15

There are many uncertainties and knowledge gaps regarding the development of carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS)-e.g., when it comes to costs, life-cycle effects, storage capacity and permanence. In spite of these uncertainties and barriers, the CCS research community is generally very optimistic regarding CCS' development. The discrepancy between the uncertainties and the optimism is the point of departure in this study, which is based on interviews with 24 CCS experts. The aim is to analyse experts' framings of CCS with focus on two key aspects: (i) the function and potential of CCS and (ii) uncertainties. The optimism among the CCS experts is tentatively explained. The interpretative flexibility of CCS is claimed to be an essential explanation for the optimism. CCS is promoted from a wide variety of perspectives, e.g., solidarity and peace, bridge to a sustainable energy system, sustaining the modern lifestyle and compatibility with the fossil fuel lock-in. Awareness of the uncertainties and potential over-optimism is warranted within policy and decision making as they often rely on scientific forecasts and experts' judgements.

Agent-Based Modelling for Security Risk Assessment

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Janssen, S.A.M.; Sharpans'kykh, Alexei; Bajo, J.; Vale, Z.; Hallenborg, K.; Rocha, A.P.; Mathieu, P.; Pawlewski, P.; Del Val, E.; Novais, P.; Lopes, F.; Duque Méndez, N.D.; Julián, V.; Holmgren, J.

2017-01-01

Security Risk Assessment is commonly performed by using traditional methods based on linear probabilistic tools and informal expert judgements. These methods lack the capability to take the inherent dynamic and intelligent nature of attackers into account. To partially address the limitations,

PROFESSIONAL JUDGEMENT. THE KEY TO A SUCCESSFUL AUDIT

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anca Oana CHIȘ

2014-11-01

Full Text Available Professional judgement represents the key to a succesful audit engagement. In order for the auditors to use their professional judgment correctly, they must know the rules and standards, both those related to accounting and audit.ISA 200 emphasizes the importance of exercising professional judgment in the planning phase and in the auditor's audit work. Judgment is exercised by an auditor whose training, knowledge and experience have assisted in developing the skills needed to achieve reasonable judgments. The article is a theoretical one, its main objective being the study of professional judgement in audit engagements. Professional judgment was analyzed using a qualitative research methodology, taking into considerationdefinitions from auditing standards and presenting the work of researchers all over the world, while emphasizing specific situations in which judgement is used. Our study draws the attention to the importance of the professional judgement during audit and the obligation of each auditor to use it appropriately.

A design condition for incorporating human judgement into monitoring systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tanaka, K.; Klir, G.J.

1999-01-01

In safety monitoring, there exists an uncertainty situation in which the sensor cannot detect whether or not the monitored object is in danger. For the uncertainty zone identified by a non-homogeneous safety monitoring system that utilizes two types of sensors with different thresholds, operators or experts are expected to judge whether the real state is safe or dangerous on the basis of additional information from a detailed inspection or other related sensors output. However, the activities for inspection performed by relevant humans may require additional cost and introduce inspection errors. The present article proposes two types of an automatic monitoring system not involving any human inspection or a human-machine (H-M) cooperative monitoring system with inspection. In order to compare the systems, an approach based on the Dempster-Shafer theory is proposed as uncertainty analysis by this theory (it is simpler than by the traditional Bayesian approach). By comparing their expected losses as a result of failed dangerous failures or failed safe failures as well as the inspection errors, the condition is determined under which H-M cooperative systems incorporating human judgements are more effective than automatic monitoring systems

Expert system for web based collaborative CAE

Science.gov (United States)

Hou, Liang; Lin, Zusheng

2006-11-01

An expert system for web based collaborative CAE was developed based on knowledge engineering, relational database and commercial FEA (Finite element analysis) software. The architecture of the system was illustrated. In this system, the experts' experiences, theories and typical examples and other related knowledge, which will be used in the stage of pre-process in FEA, were categorized into analysis process and object knowledge. Then, the integrated knowledge model based on object-oriented method and rule based method was described. The integrated reasoning process based on CBR (case based reasoning) and rule based reasoning was presented. Finally, the analysis process of this expert system in web based CAE application was illustrated, and an analysis example of a machine tool's column was illustrated to prove the validity of the system.

A Web-Based Rice Plant Expert System Using Rule-Based Reasoning

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anton Setiawan Honggowibowo

2009-12-01

Full Text Available Rice plants can be attacked by various kinds of diseases which are possible to be determined from their symptoms. However, it is to recognize that to find out the exact type of disease, an agricultural expert’s opinion is needed, meanwhile the numbers of agricultural experts are limited and there are too many problems to be solved at the same time. This makes a system with a capability as an expert is required. This system must contain the knowledge of the diseases and symptom of rice plants as an agricultural expert has to have. This research designs a web-based expert system using rule-based reasoning. The rule are modified from the method of forward chaining inference and backward chaining in order to to help farmers in the rice plant disease diagnosis. The web-based rice plants disease diagnosis expert system has the advantages to access and use easily. With web-based features inside, it is expected that the farmer can accesse the expert system everywhere to overcome the problem to diagnose rice diseases.

ART-Ada: An Ada-based expert system tool

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, S. Daniel; Allen, Bradley P.

1991-01-01

The Department of Defense mandate to standardize on Ada as the language for software systems development has resulted in increased interest in making expert systems technology readily available in Ada environments. NASA's Space Station Freedom is an example of the large Ada software development projects that will require expert systems in the 1990's. Another large scale application that can benefit from Ada based expert system tool technology is the Pilot's Associate (PA) expert system project for military combat aircraft. Automated Reasoning Tool (ART) Ada, an Ada Expert system tool is described. ART-Ada allow applications of a C-based expert system tool called ART-IM to be deployed in various Ada environments. ART-Ada is being used to implement several prototype expert systems for NASA's Space Station Freedom Program and the U.S. Air Force.

Impairment in judgement of the moral emotion guilt following orbitofrontal cortex damage.

Science.gov (United States)

Funayama, Michitaka; Koreki, Akihiro; Muramatsu, Taro; Mimura, Masaru; Kato, Motoichiro; Abe, Takayuki

2018-04-19

Although neuroimaging studies have provided evidence for an association between moral emotions and the orbitofrontal cortex, studies on patients with focal lesions using experimental probes of moral emotions are scarce. Here, we addressed this topic by presenting a moral emotion judgement task to patients with focal brain damage. Four judgement tasks in a simple pairwise choice paradigm were given to 72 patients with cerebrovascular disease. These tasks consisted of a perceptual line judgement task as a control task; the objects' preference task as a basic preference judgement task; and two types of moral emotion judgement task, an anger task and a guilt task. A multiple linear regression analysis was performed on each set of task performance scores to take into account potential confounders. Performance on the guilt emotion judgement task negatively correlated with the orbitofrontal cortex damage, but not with the other variables. Results for the other judgement tasks did not reach statistical significance. The close association between orbitofrontal cortex damage and a decrease in guilt emotion judgement consistency might suggest that the orbitofrontal cortex plays a key role in the sense of guilt, a hallmark of morality. © 2018 The British Psychological Society.

Expert judgements on the response of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation to climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zickfeld, K.; Levermann, A.; Kuhlbrodt, T.; Rahmstorf, S.; Morgan, M.G.; Keith, D.W.

2007-01-01

We present results from detailed interviews with 12 leading climate scientists about the possible effects of global climate change on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). The elicitation sought to examine the range of opinions within the climatic research community about the physical processes that determine the current strength of the AMOC, its future evolution in a changing climate and the consequences of potential AMOC changes. Experts assign different relative importance to physical processes which determine the present-day strength of the AMOC as well as to forcing factors which determine its future evolution under climate change. Many processes and factors deemed important are assessed as poorly known and insufficiently represented in state-of-the-art climate models. All experts anticipate a weakening of the AMOC under scenarios of increase of greenhouse gas concentrations. Two experts expect a permanent collapse of the AMOC as the most likely response under a 4xCO2 scenario. Assuming a global mean temperature increase in the year 2100 of 4 K, eight experts assess the probability of triggering an AMOC collapse as significantly different from zero, three of them as larger than 40%. Elicited consequences of AMOC reduction include strong changes in temperature, precipitation distribution and sea level in the North Atlantic area. It is expected that an appropriately designed research program, with emphasis on long-term observations and coupled climate modeling, would contribute to substantially reduce uncertainty about the future evolution of the AMOC

Judgements of agency in schizophrenia: an impairment in autonoetic metacognition.

Science.gov (United States)

Metcalfe, Janet; Van Snellenberg, Jared X; DeRosse, Pamela; Balsam, Peter; Malhotra, Anil K

2012-05-19

We investigated judgements of agency in participants with schizophrenia and healthy controls. Participants engaged in a computer game in which they attempted to touch downward falling Xs and avoid touching Os. On some trials, participants were objectively in perfect control. On other trials, they were objectively not in complete control because the movement of the cursor on the screen was distorted with respect to the position of the mouse by random noise (turbulence), or it was lagged by 250 or 500 ms. Participants made metacognitive judgements of agency as well as judgements of performance. Control participants' judgements of agency were affected by the turbulence and lag variables-indicating that they knew they were objectively not in control in those conditions, and they were also influenced by their assessments of performance. The patients also used their assessments of performance but neither turbulence nor lag affected their judgements of agency. This indicated an impairment in agency monitoring. The patients, unlike the healthy controls, used only publically available external cues about performance in making judgements of 'agency' and did not rely on any additional access to internal self-relevant cues that were diagnostic in indicating whether or not they were, in fact, in control.

Research on erroneous judgement and operation of human at emergency

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang Li; Huang Shudong; Li Xianyi; Chen Jianhua

2001-01-01

The behavior characteristic of human at emergency is analysed, and the root causes and the influencing factors are discussed, which result in erroneous judgement and operation. With experiment on erroneous judgement and operation of human at emergency, the error characteristic values are obtained, then the mathematical models are established. Comparing to foreign data, it is known that there are no marked differences between Chinese and foreigners in percent of erroneous judgement and operation at emergency

On the use of the analytic hierarchy process in the aggregation of expert judgments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zio, E.

1996-01-01

Expert judgments are involved in many aspects of scientific research, either formally or informally. In order to combine the different opinions elicited, simple aggregation methods have often been used with the result that expert biases, interexpert dependencies and other factors which might affect the judgments of the experts are often ignored. A more comprehensive approach, based on the analytic hierarchy process, is proposed in this paper to account for the large variety of factors influencing the experts. A structured hierarchy is constructed to decompose the overall problem in the elementary factors that can influence the expert's judgements. The importance of the different elements of the hierarchy is then assessed by pairwise comparison. The overall approach is simple, presents a systematic character and offers a good degree of flexibility. The approach provides the decision maker with a tool to quantitatively measure the significance of the judgments provided by the different experts involved in the elicitation. The resulting values can be used as weights in an aggregation scheme such as, for example, the simple weighted averaging scheme. Two applications of the approach are presented with reference to case studies of formal expert judgment elicitation previously analyzed in literature: the elicitation of the pressure increment in the containment building of the Sequoyah nuclear power plant following reactor vessel breach, and the prediction of the future changes in precipitation in the vicinity of Yucca Mountain

Expert system based radionuclide identification

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aarnio, P.A.; Ala-Heikkil, J.J.; Hakulinen, T.T.; Nikkinen, M.T.

1998-01-01

An expert system coupled with the gamma spectrum analysis system SAMPO has been developed for automating the qualitative identification of radionuclides as well as for determining the quantitative parameters of the spectrum components. The program is written in C-language and runs in various environments ranging from PCs to UNIX workstations. The expert system utilizes a complete gamma library with over 2600 nuclides and 80,000 lines, and a rule base of about fifty criteria including energies, relative peak intensities, genesis modes, half lives, parent-daughter relationships, etc. The rule base is furthermore extensible by the user. This is not an original contribution but a somewhat updated version of papers and reports previously published elsewhere. (author)

Measuring cognitive task demands using dual task methodology, subjective self-ratings, and expert judgments : A Validation Study

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Révész, Andrea; Michel, Marije; Gilabert, Roger

2016-01-01

This study explored the usefulness of dual-task methodology, self-ratings, and expert judgements in assessing task-generated cognitive demands as a way to provide validity evidence for manipulations of task complexity. The participants were 96 students and 61 ESL teachers. The students, 48 English

Artificial intelligence expert system for nuclear power plant control and maintenance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Westrom, G.B.

1987-01-01

A major concern in emergency response in a nuclear power plant is the lack of real experience with a catastrophic condition. Experts do more than just follow a set of rules. They have experience and insight into problems and are able to use their professional judgement. The objectives of this expert system are: Detect subtle off-normal trends in a reactor power plant system. Alert the operator with color graphics and synthesized voice commands. Identify the source of the problem and advise the operator on steps to restore the plant to normal operation. Provide an explanation facility and database to supply detailed information on component history and reasoning process. The RHRS (Residual Heat Removal System) was selected for the initial expert systems development because it is extremely important during refueling and cold shutdown operations

Expert opinions on carbon dioxide capture and storage. A framing of uncertainties and possibilities

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hansson, Anders [Linkoeping University, Department of Technology and Social Change, SE-58183 Linkoeping (Sweden); Bryngelsson, Maarten [KTH, School of Chemical Sciences, Teknikringen 50, SE-10044 Stockholm (Sweden)

2009-06-15

There are many uncertainties and knowledge gaps regarding the development of carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) - e.g., when it comes to costs, life-cycle effects, storage capacity and permanence. In spite of these uncertainties and barriers, the CCS research community is generally very optimistic regarding CCS' development. The discrepancy between the uncertainties and the optimism is the point of departure in this study, which is based on interviews with 24 CCS experts. The aim is to analyse experts' framings of CCS with focus on two key aspects: (1) the function and potential of CCS and (2) uncertainties. The optimism among the CCS experts is tentatively explained. The interpretative flexibility of CCS is claimed to be an essential explanation for the optimism. CCS is promoted from a wide variety of perspectives, e.g., solidarity and peace, bridge to a sustainable energy system, sustaining the modern lifestyle and compatibility with the fossil fuel lock-in. Awareness of the uncertainties and potential over-optimism is warranted within policy and decision making as they often rely on scientific forecasts and experts' judgements. (author)

Teaching practical wisdom in medicine through clinical judgement, goals of care, and ethical reasoning.

Science.gov (United States)

Kaldjian, Lauris Christopher

2010-09-01

Clinical decision making is a challenging task that requires practical wisdom-the practised ability to help patients choose wisely among available diagnostic and treatment options. But practical wisdom is not a concept one typically hears mentioned in medical training and practice. Instead, emphasis is placed on clinical judgement. The author draws from Aristotle and Aquinas to describe the virtue of practical wisdom and compare it with clinical judgement. From this comparison, the author suggests that a more complete understanding of clinical judgement requires its explicit integration with goals of care and ethical values. Although clinicians may be justified in assuming that goals of care and ethical values are implicit in routine decision making, it remains important for training purposes to encourage habits of clinical judgement that are consciously goal-directed and ethically informed. By connecting clinical judgement to patients' goals and values, clinical decisions are more likely to stay focused on the particular interests of individual patients. To cultivate wise clinical judgement among trainees, educational efforts should aim at the integration of clinical judgement, communication with patients about goals of care, and ethical reasoning. But ultimately, training in wise clinical judgement will take years of practice in the company of experienced clinicians who are able to demonstrate practical wisdom by example. By helping trainees develop clinical judgement that incorporates patients' goals of care and ethical reasoning, we may help lessen the risk that 'clinical judgement' will merely express 'the clinician's judgement.'

Values in breast cancer screening: an empirical study with Australian experts

Science.gov (United States)

Parker, Lisa; Rychetnik, Lucie; Carter, Stacy

2015-01-01

Objective To explore what Australian experts value in breast screening, how these values are conceptualised and prioritised, and how they inform experts’ reasoning and judgement about the Australian breast-screening programme. Design Qualitative study based on interviews with experts. Participants 33 experts, including clinicians, programme managers, policymakers, advocates and researchers selected for their recognisable influence in the Australian breast-screening setting. Setting Australian breast-screening policy, practice and research settings. Results Experts expressed 2 types of values: ethical values (about what was good, important or right) and epistemological values (about how evidence should be created and used). Ethical values included delivering benefit, avoiding harm, promoting autonomy, fairness, cost effectiveness, accountability, professionalism and transparency. Epistemological values informed experts’ arguments about prioritising and evaluating evidence methodology, source population and professional interests. Some values were conceptualised differently by experts: for example, delivering benefit could mean reducing breast cancer mortality, reducing all-cause mortality, reducing mortality in younger women, reducing need for aggressive treatment, and/or reassuring women they were cancer free. When values came into conflict, experts prioritised them differently: for example, when experts perceived a conflict between delivering benefits and promoting autonomy, there were differences in which value was prioritised. We explain the complexity of the relationship between held values and experts’ overall views on breast cancer screening. Conclusions Experts’ positions in breast screening are influenced by evidence and a wide range of ethical and epistemological values. We conclude that discussions about values should be a regular part of breast-screening review in order to build understanding between those who hold different positions, and

An Embedded Rule-Based Diagnostic Expert System in Ada

Science.gov (United States)

Jones, Robert E.; Liberman, Eugene M.

1992-01-01

Ada is becoming an increasingly popular programming language for large Government-funded software projects. Ada with it portability, transportability, and maintainability lends itself well to today's complex programming environment. In addition, expert systems have also assumed a growing role in providing human-like reasoning capability expertise for computer systems. The integration is discussed of expert system technology with Ada programming language, especially a rule-based expert system using an ART-Ada (Automated Reasoning Tool for Ada) system shell. NASA Lewis was chosen as a beta test site for ART-Ada. The test was conducted by implementing the existing Autonomous Power EXpert System (APEX), a Lisp-based power expert system, in ART-Ada. Three components, the rule-based expert systems, a graphics user interface, and communications software make up SMART-Ada (Systems fault Management with ART-Ada). The rules were written in the ART-Ada development environment and converted to Ada source code. The graphics interface was developed with the Transportable Application Environment (TAE) Plus, which generates Ada source code to control graphics images. SMART-Ada communicates with a remote host to obtain either simulated or real data. The Ada source code generated with ART-Ada, TAE Plus, and communications code was incorporated into an Ada expert system that reads the data from a power distribution test bed, applies the rule to determine a fault, if one exists, and graphically displays it on the screen. The main objective, to conduct a beta test on the ART-Ada rule-based expert system shell, was achieved. The system is operational. New Ada tools will assist in future successful projects. ART-Ada is one such tool and is a viable alternative to the straight Ada code when an application requires a rule-based or knowledge-based approach.

Evaluating future detriment from radioactive discharges Judgements and implications for optimisation of protection

CERN Document Server

Fleishman, A B

1982-01-01

For long-lived nuclides released into the environment, it is possible to calculate dose commitments extending over thousands or millions of years. The inclusion of this detriment to future populations in present day decision-making is not a technical matter, but represents an area where judgement must be applied. This report shows how different judgements on the relative valuation of future doses can have significant implications for the management of radioactive effluents. A quantitative framework for the expression of such judgements is proposed for optimisation studies, to clarify for decision-makers these implications in the assessment of alternative management options. This is based on the economic principles of discounting, but is related to the use of incomplete collective dose commitments (truncated in time), and includes a zero discount rate which assigns the same weight to doses whenever received. The framework is applied to a series of potential management options for the control of carbon-14, kryp...

A Belief Rule-Based Expert System to Diagnose Influenza

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hossain, Mohammad Shahadat; Khalid, Md. Saifuddin; Akter, Shamima

2014-01-01

, development and application of an expert system to diagnose influenza under uncertainty. The recently developed generic belief rule-based inference methodology by using the evidential reasoning (RIMER) approach is employed to develop this expert system, termed as Belief Rule Based Expert System (BRBES......). The RIMER approach can handle different types of uncertainties, both in knowledge representation, and in inference procedures. The knowledge-base of this system was constructed by using records of the real patient data along with in consultation with the Influenza specialists of Bangladesh. Practical case...

29 CFR 18.703 - Bases of opinion testimony by experts.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... Bases of opinion testimony by experts. The facts or data in the particular case upon which an expert... 29 Labor 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 true Bases of opinion testimony by experts. 18.703 Section 18.703 Labor Office of the Secretary of Labor RULES OF PRACTICE AND PROCEDURE FOR ADMINISTRATIVE HEARINGS...

The International Accounting Standards Board’s Progress in Promoting Judgement Through Objectives-Oriented Accounting Standards

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tanja Lakovic

2013-07-01

Full Text Available This study analyzes how the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB promotes professional judgement by issuing objectives-oriented accounting standards and exposure drafts.  We focus on the the role of judgement as outlined in Phase I of the IASB Conceptual Framework (CF, Chapter 1, “Objective of General Purpose Financial Statements” and Chapter 3, “Qualitative Characteristics of Useful Financial Information” (IASB 2010. We discuss how the framework, when viewed through the prism of 'objectives-oriented accounting standards' as recommended by the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC Report in its “Study Pursuant to Section 108(d of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002 on the Adoption by the United States Financial Reporting System of a Principles-Based Accounting System” (July 2003, encourages professional judgement. We analyze International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS and Exposure Drafts (ED issued by the IASB since its inception in 2002 to determine if those documents are consistent with objectives-oriented accounting standards. Our analysis is useful for gaining insights into how the IASB integrates the CF with the SEC’s recommended objectives-oriented accounting approach to promote judgement in the interest of IASB/FASB convergence of accounting standards.

Ask-the-expert: Active Learning Based Knowledge Discovery Using the Expert

Science.gov (United States)

Das, Kamalika; Avrekh, Ilya; Matthews, Bryan; Sharma, Manali; Oza, Nikunj

2017-01-01

Often the manual review of large data sets, either for purposes of labeling unlabeled instances or for classifying meaningful results from uninteresting (but statistically significant) ones is extremely resource intensive, especially in terms of subject matter expert (SME) time. Use of active learning has been shown to diminish this review time significantly. However, since active learning is an iterative process of learning a classifier based on a small number of SME-provided labels at each iteration, the lack of an enabling tool can hinder the process of adoption of these technologies in real-life, in spite of their labor-saving potential. In this demo we present ASK-the-Expert, an interactive tool that allows SMEs to review instances from a data set and provide labels within a single framework. ASK-the-Expert is powered by an active learning algorithm for training a classifier in the backend. We demonstrate this system in the context of an aviation safety application, but the tool can be adopted to work as a simple review and labeling tool as well, without the use of active learning.

A Study on Satellite Diagnostic Expert Systems Using Case-Based Approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Young-Tack Park

1997-06-01

Full Text Available Many research works are on going to monitor and diagnose diverse malfunctions of satellite systems as the complexity and number of satellites increase. Currently, many works on monitoring and diagnosis are carried out by human experts but there are needs to automate much of the routine works of them. Hence, it is necessary to study on using expert systems which can assist human experts routine work by doing automatically, thereby allow human experts devote their expertise more critical and important areas of monitoring and diagnosis. In this paper, we are employing artificial intelligence techniques to model human experts' knowledge and inference the constructed knowledge. Especially, case-based approaches are used to construct a knowledge base to model human expert capabilities which use previous typical exemplars. We have designed and implemented a prototype case-based system for diagnosing satellite malfunctions using cases. Our system remembers typical failure cases and diagnoses a current malfunction by indexing the case base. Diverse methods are used to build a more user friendly interface which allows human experts can build a knowledge base in as easy way.

Ofsted's Judgement of Parental Engagement: A Justification of Its Place in Leadership and Management

Science.gov (United States)

Goodall, Janet

2015-01-01

This article considers the recent change to Ofsted's inspection criteria, which now includes a judgement on schools' engagement with parents as part of the overall Leadership and Management judgement. The article argues that this is the correct place for this judgement, linking effective parental engagement with the development of a broad and…

Evaluating future detriment from radioactive discharges: Judgements and implications for optimisation of protection

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fleishman, A.B.; Clark, M.J.

1982-04-01

For long-lived nuclides released into the environment, it is possible to calculate dose commitments extending over thousands or millions of years. The inclusion of this detriment to future populations in present day decision-making is not a technical matter, but represents an area where judgement must be applied. This report shows how different judgements on the relative valuation of future doses can have significant implications for the management of radioactive effluents. A quantitative framework for the expression of such judgements is proposed for optimisation studies, to clarify for decision-makers these implications in the assessment of alternative management options. This is based on the economic principles of discounting, but is related to the use of incomplete collective dose commitments (truncated in time), and includes a zero discount rate which assigns the same weight to doses whenever received. The framework is applied to a series of potential management options for the control of carbon-14, krypton-85 and iodine-129 arising from a notional fuel reprocessing plant. Using published data on plant costs and a range of costs of unit collective dose, the sensitivity of 'optimum' options to variations in discount rates is analysed. A number of general conclusions are drawn from the results but the optimisation is intended for illustrative purposes, and therefore cannot be used to reach judgements on the desirability of implementing specific effluent controls. This work was partially funded by the Commission of the European Communities. (author)

A Fuzzy Rule-Based Expert System for Evaluating Intellectual Capital

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mohammad Hossein Fazel Zarandi

2012-01-01

Full Text Available A fuzzy rule-based expert system is developed for evaluating intellectual capital. A fuzzy linguistic approach assists managers to understand and evaluate the level of each intellectual capital item. The proposed fuzzy rule-based expert system applies fuzzy linguistic variables to express the level of qualitative evaluation and criteria of experts. Feasibility of the proposed model is demonstrated by the result of intellectual capital performance evaluation for a sample company.

Effects of stimulus order on discrimination processes in comparative and equality judgements: data and models.

Science.gov (United States)

Dyjas, Oliver; Ulrich, Rolf

2014-01-01

In typical discrimination experiments, participants are presented with a constant standard and a variable comparison stimulus and their task is to judge which of these two stimuli is larger (comparative judgement). In these experiments, discrimination sensitivity depends on the temporal order of these stimuli (Type B effect) and is usually higher when the standard precedes rather than follows the comparison. Here, we outline how two models of stimulus discrimination can account for the Type B effect, namely the weighted difference model (or basic Sensation Weighting model) and the Internal Reference Model. For both models, the predicted psychometric functions for comparative judgements as well as for equality judgements, in which participants indicate whether they perceived the two stimuli to be equal or not equal, are derived and it is shown that the models also predict a Type B effect for equality judgements. In the empirical part, the models' predictions are evaluated. To this end, participants performed a duration discrimination task with comparative judgements and with equality judgements. In line with the models' predictions, a Type B effect was observed for both judgement types. In addition, a time-order error, as indicated by shifts of the psychometric functions, and differences in response times were observed only for the equality judgement. Since both models entail distinct additional predictions, it seems worthwhile for future research to unite the two models into one conceptual framework.

Development of expert system for fault diagnosis and restoration at substations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Choo, Jin Boo; Kwon, Tae Won; Yoon, Yong Beum; Park, Sung Taek [Korea Electric Power Corp. (KEPCO), Taejon (Korea, Republic of). Research Center; Park, Young Moon; Lee, Heung Jae [Electrical Engineering and Science Research Institute (Korea, Republic of)

1996-12-31

When a fault occurs in power systems, the operators have to make precise judgements on the situation and take appropriate actions rapidly to protect the system and minimize the black-out area. However, the larger and the more complex the power systems become, the more difficult it becomes to expect the effective actions of human operators. Therefore, it is a very important issue to support the operators of the local power systems in the case of various faults. We develop an expert system for fault diagnosis and reconfiguration of local power system. The expert system has a capability of identifying the location and the type of faults, the black-out area, and an appropriate reconfiguration procedure for re-energizing or minimizing the service interruption (author). 35 refs., 45 figs.

Development of expert system for fault diagnosis and restoration at substations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Choo, Jin Boo; Kwon, Tae Won; Yoon, Yong Beum; Park, Sung Taek [Korea Electric Power Corp. (KEPCO), Taejon (Korea, Republic of). Research Center; Park, Young Moon; Lee, Heung Jae [Electrical Engineering and Science Research Institute (Korea, Republic of)

1995-12-31

When a fault occurs in power systems, the operators have to make precise judgements on the situation and take appropriate actions rapidly to protect the system and minimize the black-out area. However, the larger and the more complex the power systems become, the more difficult it becomes to expect the effective actions of human operators. Therefore, it is a very important issue to support the operators of the local power systems in the case of various faults. We develop an expert system for fault diagnosis and reconfiguration of local power system. The expert system has a capability of identifying the location and the type of faults, the black-out area, and an appropriate reconfiguration procedure for re-energizing or minimizing the service interruption (author). 35 refs., 45 figs.

Factors influencing nurses' judgements about self-neglect cases.

Science.gov (United States)

Lauder, W; Ludwick, R; Zeller, R; Winchell, J

2006-06-01

From the perspective of the practising nurse self-neglect may best be understood in terms of a set of complex and often poorly defined clinical problems in which two key clinical issues are "how do I judge whether this person has the capacity to make decisions about their lifestyle?" and "do we need to treat this person using mental health legislation?" These are taxing questions as judging if a patient has the capacity to make decisions about their lifestyle choices is difficult for even the most experienced clinicians. Such determinations require nurses to form a judgement as to mental capacity of the patient. We do not know what patient characteristics and in what combination nurses use these when making these judgements. This factorial survey aimed to identify which patient characteristics influenced Registered Nurses' judgements on decision-making capacity and decisions on the use of interventions which require statutory interventions in cases of self-neglect. Judgements on decision-making capacity were overwhelmingly predicted by information of the patients' mental health status. Nurses place patients in one of three broad categories of no mental illness, minor mental illness and severe mental illness. This categorization appears to operate as a fast and frugal heuristic indicating that nurses may use mental status as a cognitive screen to work from in judging self-neglect. Although there is a correlation between the severity of mental illness and the capacity for making decisions they are not the same. This study shows the continued work that needs done in educating nurses not only about self-neglect but also about the role a patient's mental status may have in assessment of problems.

Expert Opinion in SR 97 and the SKI/SSI Joint Review of SR 97

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hora, Stephen

2002-09-01

The role of sensitivity and uncertainty analyses for radioactive waste disposal assessments is reviewed. The report covers a description of the these concepts were applied in the authorities' review of the safety report SR 97. With regard to the use of expert knowledge, the most significant weakness of SR 97 is absence of any standards, procedures, and even definitions for expert judgment. This situation needs to be dealt with by SKB in the near future as it denigrates the portions of the study that are well done. In developing expert judgment processes, SSI should ensure that SKB creates procedures that guarantee traceability and transparency. This will become very important as the repository system matures and receives greater public scrutiny. Both in the area of scenario creation and expert judgement, there are processes that have gained international acceptance. It would be in the best interest of SKB, and the public, to adhere these accepted approaches.

Expert Opinion in SR 97 and the SKI/SSI Joint Review of SR 97

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hora, Stephen

2002-09-01

The role of sensitivity and uncertainty analyses for radioactive waste disposal assessments is reviewed. The report covers a description of the these concepts were applied in the authorities' review of the safety report SR 97. With regard to the use of expert knowledge, the most significant weakness of SR 97 is absence of any standards, procedures, and even definitions for expert judgment. This situation needs to be dealt with by SKB in the near future as it denigrates the portions of the study that are well done. In developing expert judgment processes, SSI should ensure that SKB creates procedures that guarantee traceability and transparency. This will become very important as the repository system matures and receives greater public scrutiny. Both in the area of scenario creation and expert judgement, there are processes that have gained international acceptance. It would be in the best interest of SKB, and the public, to adhere these accepted approaches

Rule - based Fault Diagnosis Expert System for Wind Turbine

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Deng Xiao-Wen

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Under the trend of increasing installed capacity of wind power, the intelligent fault diagnosis of wind turbine is of great significance to the safe and efficient operation of wind farms. Based on the knowledge of fault diagnosis of wind turbines, this paper builds expert system diagnostic knowledge base by using confidence production rules and expert system self-learning method. In Visual Studio 2013 platform, C # language is selected and ADO.NET technology is used to access the database. Development of Fault Diagnosis Expert System for Wind Turbine. The purpose of this paper is to realize on-line diagnosis of wind turbine fault through human-computer interaction, and to improve the diagnostic capability of the system through the continuous improvement of the knowledge base.

The Language of Appraisal in British Advertisements: The Construal of Attitudinal Judgement

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Agata Križan

2016-12-01

Full Text Available The article explores the occurrence and frequency of use of attitudinal judgement in British advertisement texts. Judgement, as one of the main attitudinal categories in the discourse-semantic appraisal model (Martin and White 2005, is concerned with the evaluation of human character and behaviour. The article focuses on the judgement categories of capability and propriety, as the research described concludes that they are the most frequently occurring of the judgement categories. Some typical instances encoding capability and propriety are discussed in terms of explicit and implicit manifestation. The article demonstrates that capability and propriety often participate in attitudinal double-coding due to the brevity of advertising texts and the creativity of advertising language. Capability and propriety are strongly socially motivated: they impose values upon the potential consumer, and hence upon society, and through them create social roles for the participants in the advertising interaction.

Mentor judgements and decision-making in the assessment of student nurse competence in practice: A mixed-methods study.

Science.gov (United States)

Burden, Sarah; Topping, Anne Elizabeth; O'Halloran, Catherine

2018-05-01

To investigate how mentors form judgements and reach summative assessment decisions regarding student competence in practice. Competence assessment is a significant component of pre-registration nursing programmes in the United Kingdom. Concerns exist that assessments are subjective, lack consistency and that mentors fail to judge student performance as unsatisfactory. A two-stage sequential embedded mixed-methods design. Data collected 2012-2013. This study involved a whole student cohort completing a UK undergraduate adult nursing programme (N = 41). Stage 1: quantitative data on mentor conduct of assessment interviews and the final decision recorded (N = 330 from 270 mentors) were extracted from student Practice Assessment Documents (PADs). Stage 2: mentor feedback in student PADs was used in Stimulated Recall interviews with a purposive sample of final placement mentors (N = 17). These were thematically analysed. Findings were integrated to develop a theoretically driven model of mentor decision-making. Course assessment strategies and documentation had limited effect in framing mentor judgements and decisions. Rather, mentors amassed impressions, moderated by expectations of an "idealized student" by practice area and programme stage that influenced their management and outcome of the assessment process. These impressions were accumulated and combined into judgements that informed the final decision. This process can best be understood and conceptualized through the Brunswik's lens model of social judgement. Mentor decisions were reasoned and there was a shared understanding of judgement criteria and their importance. This impression-based nature of mentor decision-making questions the reliability and validity of competency-based assessments used in nursing pre-registration programmes. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Project on Alternative Systems Study - PASS. Comparison of technology of KBS-3, MLH, VLH and VDH concepts by using an expert group

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Olsson, Lars; Sandstedt, H.

1992-09-01

This report constitutes a technical comparison and ranking of four repository concepts for final disposal of spent nuclear fuel, that have been studied by SKB: KBS-3, Medium Long Holes (MLH), Very Long Holes (VLH) and Very Deep Holes (VDH). The technical comparison is part of the project 'Project on Alternative Systems Study, PASS', which was initiated by SKB. With the objective of presenting a ranking of the four concepts. Besides this comparison of Technology the ranking is separately made for Long-term Performance and Safety, and Costs before the merging into one verdict. The ranking regarding Technology was carried out in accordance with the method Analytical Hierarchy Process, AHP, and by the aid of expert judgement in the form of a group consisting of six experts. The AHP method implies that the criteria for comparison are ordered in a hierarchy and that the ranking is carried out by pairwise comparison of the criteria. In the evaluation process a measure of the relative importance of each criterion is obtained. The result of the expert judgement exercise was that each expert individually ranked the four concepts in the following order with the top ranked alternative first: KBS-3, MLH, VLH and VDH. The common opinion among the experts was that the top ranking of KBS-3 is significant and the the major criteria used in the study could change substantially without changing the top ranking of KBS-3

Relevance as process: judgements in the context of scholarly research

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Theresa D. Anderson

2005-01-01

Full Text Available Introduction. This paper discusses how exploring the research process in-depth and over time contributes to a fuller understanding of interactions with various representations of information. Method. A longitudinal ethnographic study explored decisions made by two informants involved in scholarly research. Relevance assessment and information seeking were observed as part of informants' own ongoing research projects. Fieldwork used methods of discovery that allowed informants to shape the exploration of the practices surrounding the evolving understandings of their topics. Analysis. Inductive analysis was carried out on the qualitative data collected over a two-year period of judgements observed on a document-by-document basis. The paper introduces broad categories that point to the variability and richness of the ways that informants used representations of information resources to make relevance judgements. Results. Relevance judgements appear to be drivers of the search and research processes informants moved through during the observations. Focusing on research goals rather than on retrieval tasks brings us to a fuller understanding of the relationship between ultimate research goals and the articulation of those goals in interactions with information systems. Conclusion. Relevance assessment is a process that unfolds in the doing of a search, the making of judgements and the using of texts and representations of information.

Techniques and implementation of the embedded rule-based expert system using Ada

Science.gov (United States)

Liberman, Eugene M.; Jones, Robert E.

1991-01-01

Ada is becoming an increasingly popular programming language for large Government-funded software projects. Ada with its portability, transportability, and maintainability lends itself well to today's complex programming environment. In addition, expert systems have also assured a growing role in providing human-like reasoning capability and expertise for computer systems. The integration of expert system technology with Ada programming language, specifically a rule-based expert system using an ART-Ada (Automated Reasoning Tool for Ada) system shell is discussed. The NASA Lewis Research Center was chosen as a beta test site for ART-Ada. The test was conducted by implementing the existing Autonomous Power EXpert System (APEX), a Lisp-base power expert system, in ART-Ada. Three components, the rule-based expert system, a graphics user interface, and communications software make up SMART-Ada (Systems fault Management with ART-Ada). The main objective, to conduct a beta test on the ART-Ada rule-based expert system shell, was achieved. The system is operational. New Ada tools will assist in future successful projects. ART-Ada is one such tool and is a viable alternative to the straight Ada code when an application requires a rule-based or knowledge-based approach.

Strategies for adding adaptive learning mechanisms to rule-based diagnostic expert systems

Science.gov (United States)

Stclair, D. C.; Sabharwal, C. L.; Bond, W. E.; Hacke, Keith

1988-01-01

Rule-based diagnostic expert systems can be used to perform many of the diagnostic chores necessary in today's complex space systems. These expert systems typically take a set of symptoms as input and produce diagnostic advice as output. The primary objective of such expert systems is to provide accurate and comprehensive advice which can be used to help return the space system in question to nominal operation. The development and maintenance of diagnostic expert systems is time and labor intensive since the services of both knowledge engineer(s) and domain expert(s) are required. The use of adaptive learning mechanisms to increment evaluate and refine rules promises to reduce both time and labor costs associated with such systems. This paper describes the basic adaptive learning mechanisms of strengthening, weakening, generalization, discrimination, and discovery. Next basic strategies are discussed for adding these learning mechanisms to rule-based diagnostic expert systems. These strategies support the incremental evaluation and refinement of rules in the knowledge base by comparing the set of advice given by the expert system (A) with the correct diagnosis (C). Techniques are described for selecting those rules in the in the knowledge base which should participate in adaptive learning. The strategies presented may be used with a wide variety of learning algorithms. Further, these strategies are applicable to a large number of rule-based diagnostic expert systems. They may be used to provide either immediate or deferred updating of the knowledge base.

"I Think It's Low Self-Esteem". Teachers' Judgements: A Cautionary Tale

Science.gov (United States)

Miller, David; Parker, Donna

2006-01-01

Although there is a debate about the importance of self-esteem in education, many primary teachers wish to help children who suffer from low self-esteem. However, in order to do this, we first have to identify such children. It is almost taken for granted that we can make quite accurate judgements based on the knowledge built up through day-to-day…

Towards an Understanding of Teacher Judgement in the Context of Social Moderation

Science.gov (United States)

Adie, Lenore Ellen; Klenowski, Valentina; Wyatt-Smith, Claire

2012-01-01

Social moderation involves teachers gathering together to discuss their judgements of the quality of student work and to reach agreement regarding the standard awarded. This qualitative study conducted over a three-year period investigated the social practice of moderation and the influence on teachers' judgements of students' work. An initial…

Clinical judgement within the South African clinical nursing environment: A concept analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anna C. van Graan

2016-12-01

The findings emphasized clinical judgement as skill within the clinical nursing environment, thereby improving autonomous and accountable nursing care. These findings will assist nurse leaders and clinical nurse educators in developing a teaching-learning strategy to promote clinical judgement in undergraduate nursing students, thereby contributing to the quality of nursing care.

Moral Schemas and Tacit Judgement or How the Defining Issues Test Is Supported by Cognitive Science.

Science.gov (United States)

Narvaez, Darcia; Bock, Tonia

2002-01-01

Discusses three core moral judgement ideas: (1) modern schema theory, (2) automatic decision-making frequency, and (3) implicit processes as the default mode of human information processing. Compares the Defining Issues Test (measures the beginnings of moral judgement) and the Lawrence Kohlberg Moral Judgement Interview (measures the highest level…

Integrated Knowledge Based Expert System for Disease Diagnosis System

Science.gov (United States)

Arbaiy, Nureize; Sulaiman, Shafiza Eliza; Hassan, Norlida; Afizah Afip, Zehan

2017-08-01

The role and importance of healthcare systems to improve quality of life and social welfare in a society have been well recognized. Attention should be given to raise awareness and implementing appropriate measures to improve health care. Therefore, a computer based system is developed to serve as an alternative for people to self-diagnose their health status based on given symptoms. This strategy should be emphasized so that people can utilize the information correctly as a reference to enjoy healthier life. Hence, a Web-based Community Center for Healthcare Diagnosis system is developed based on expert system technique. Expert system reasoning technique is employed in the system to enable information about treatment and prevention of the diseases based on given symptoms. At present, three diseases are included which are arthritis, thalassemia and pneumococcal. Sets of rule and fact are managed in the knowledge based system. Web based technology is used as a platform to disseminate the information to users in order for them to optimize the information appropriately. This system will benefit people who wish to increase health awareness and seek expert knowledge on the diseases by performing self-diagnosis for early disease detection.

Staff Judgements of Responsibility for the Challenging Behaviour of Adults with Intellectual Disabilities

Science.gov (United States)

Dagnan, D.; Cairns, M.

2005-01-01

This study examines the importance of staff judgements of responsibility for challenging behaviour in predicting their emotional and intended helping responses. Sixty-two carers completed questionnaires rating attributions of internality, stability and controllability, emotions of sympathy and anger, judgements of responsibility for the…

The influence of affective and cognitive arguments on message judgement and attitude change: The moderating effects of meta-bases and structural bases.

Science.gov (United States)

Keer, Mario; van den Putte, Bas; Neijens, Peter; de Wit, John

2013-01-01

This study investigated whether the efficacy of affective vs. cognitive persuasive messages was moderated by (1) individuals' subjective assessments of whether their attitudes were based on affect or cognition (i.e. meta-bases) and (2) the degree individuals' attitudes were correlated with affect and cognition (i.e. structural bases). Participants (N = 97) were randomly exposed to a message containing either affective or cognitive arguments discouraging binge drinking. The results demonstrated that meta-bases and not structural bases moderated the influence of argument type on message judgement. Affective (cognitive) messages were judged more positively when individuals' meta-bases were more affective (cognitive). In contrast, structural bases and not meta-bases moderated the influence of argument type on attitude and intention change following exposure to the message. Surprisingly, change was greater among individuals who read a message that mismatched their structural attitude base. Affective messages were more effective as attitudes were more cognition-based, and vice versa. Thus, although individuals prefer messages that match their meta-base, attitude and intention change regarding binge drinking are best established by mismatching their structural base.

Implications of social judgement theory for persuasive advertising ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Implications of social judgement theory for persuasive advertising campaigns. ... The way the consumers perceive an advertising campaign will, therefore, determine how they will respond to the advertisement. ... AJOL African Journals Online.

The microcomputer-based expert system in CAD-PV

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, Y.; Qin, S.

1987-01-01

As a branch of artificial intelligence, expert system has been revealed day after day in more and more engineering scopes since the successful applications of MYCIN in diagnosis and DENDRAL in the molecular structure of organic compounds etc.. But in the design scope of pressure vessel, as we know, only a few papers have so far been published with respect to the expert system. The necessity and feasibility of accompanying CAD-PV with expert system attracted more scholars to engage in. Although many countries, including China, have regularized the design standards or codes for pressure vessel, but of which no one can solve all of the problems concerning the various practical occasions and experiences. In general, the more domain knowledges a design engineer possesses of, the better decision will be made by him. By virtue of the expert system any less experienced engineer could make the optimum decision in design as well as a skilled senior engineer in addition to the application of design code. It is the due significance for developing high level expert system as an intelligence assistant in the plan option of CAD-PV. In this paper we attempt to introduce a specified software JACKPV used in the design procedure of jacketed pressure vessel as an intelligence front in CAD-PV. JACKPV consists of the function of expert system based on the personal computer IBM-PC/XT with the language PASCAL in its program. It was proved that an ordinary CAD software could be effectively improved while equipped with expert system. (orig.)

Auditors’ Personal Values and Ethical Judgement at Different Levels of Ethical Climate: A Conceptual Link

OpenAIRE

Ahmed Mohamed Alteer; Sofri Bin Yahya; Md Harashid Haron

2013-01-01

The purpose of this paper is come up with theoretical model through understanding the causes and motives behind the auditor judgements. The finding of this study that there are several ethical theories a models provide a significant understanding of ethical issues and suggested factors that may affect ethical judgement decision. The suggestion model proposes that ethical judgements are influenced by personal values via ethical sensitivity. Nonetheless, the influence of personal values on ethi...

Evaluation of a Performance-Based Expert Elicitation: WHO Global Attribution of Foodborne Diseases

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Aspinall, W. P.; Cooke, R. M.; Havelaar, A. H.

2016-01-01

. This paper presents new findings from a large-scale international SEJ study intended to estimate the global burden of foodborne disease on behalf of WHO. The study involved 72 experts distributed over 134 expert panels, with panels comprising thirteen experts on average. Elicitations were conducted in five...... languages. Performance-based weighted solutions for target questions of interest were formed for each panel. These weights were based on individual expert's statistical accuracy and informativeness, determined using between ten and fifteen calibration variables from the experts' field with known values...

Consistency and reliability of judgements by assessors of case based discussions in general practice specialty training programmes in the United Kingdom.

Science.gov (United States)

Bodgener, Susan; Denney, Meiling; Howard, John

2017-01-01

Case based discussions (CbDs) are a mandatory workplace assessment used throughout general practitioner (GP) specialty training; they contribute to the annual review of competence progression (ARCP) for each trainee. This study examined the judgements arising from CbDs made by different groups of assessors and whether or not these assessments supported ARCP decisions. The trainees selected were at the end of their first year of GP training and had been identified during their ARCPs to need extra training time. CbDs were specifically chosen as they are completed by both hospital and GP supervisors, enabling comparison between these two groups. The results raise concern with regard to the consistency of judgements made by different groups of assessors, with significant variance between assessors of different status and seniority. Further work needs to be done on whether the CbD in its current format is fit for purpose as one of the mandatory WPBAs for GP trainees, particularly during their hospital placements. There is a need to increase the inter-rater reliability of CbDs to ensure a consistent contribution to subsequent decisions about a trainee's overall progress.

Depressive realism and the effect of intertrial interval on judgements of zero, positive, and negative contingencies

OpenAIRE

Msetfi, Rachel M.; Murphy, Robin, A.; Simpson, Jane

2007-01-01

peer-reviewed In three experiments we tested how the spacing of trials during acquisition of zero, positive, and negative event–outcome contingencies differentially affected depressed and nondepressed students’ judgements. Experiment 1 found that nondepressed participants’ judgements of zero contingencies increased with longer intertrial intervals (ITIs) but not simply longer procedure durations. Depressed groups’ judgements were not sensitive to either manipulation, producing an effect kn...

Risk perception of diagnostic and therapeutic radiological applications. Comparison of experts and the public

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arranz, L.; Macias, M.T.; Prades, A.; Sola, R.; Martinez-Arias, R.

2000-01-01

Recent research has found many differences between experts and lay people in judgements of radiological risks. However, most of these studies were carried out on experts from nuclear power plants, regulatory bodies etc. This paper analyses the differences among several groups of 'experts' coming from the Health area and the lay people. A survey was designed to assess the perceived seriousness of seven diagnostic and therapeutic applications: conventional diagnostic radiology, computed tomography, chemotherapy, ecography examinations, radiotherapy, and diagnostic and therapeutic nuclear medicine. The questionnaire was distributed to samples of experts (professionals exposed to ionizing radiations, and other health professionals), and outpatients. All samples were selected from ten countries: Argentine, Brazil, Colombia, Cuba, Ecuador, Mexico, Panama, Peru, Uruguay, and Spain, thanks to the collaboration of the different National Radioprotection Societies of the above mentioned countries, and of other concerned professionals (in case they didn't have any association at the time). The following comparisons will be presented: 1) Differences between experts' and the public; 2) differences among several groups of 'experts'; 3) within the 'expert' sample, differences between perceived seriousness as a patient and as a professional at risk; 4) within the public sample, individual differences related to some socio-demographic variables. A cross-cultural analysis of the above mentioned comparisons will also be carried out. (author)

Risk perception of diagnostic and therapeutic radiological applications. Comparison of experts and the public

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Arranz, L. [Hospital Ramon y Cajal, Madrid (Spain); Macias, M.T. [CSIC, Madrid (Spain); Prades, A.; Sola, R. [Ciemat, Madrid (Spain); Martinez-Arias, R. [Universidad Complutense, Madrid (Spain)

2000-05-01

Recent research has found many differences between experts and lay people in judgements of radiological risks. However, most of these studies were carried out on experts from nuclear power plants, regulatory bodies etc. This paper analyses the differences among several groups of 'experts' coming from the Health area and the lay people. A survey was designed to assess the perceived seriousness of seven diagnostic and therapeutic applications: conventional diagnostic radiology, computed tomography, chemotherapy, ecography examinations, radiotherapy, and diagnostic and therapeutic nuclear medicine. The questionnaire was distributed to samples of experts (professionals exposed to ionizing radiations, and other health professionals), and outpatients. All samples were selected from ten countries: Argentine, Brazil, Colombia, Cuba, Ecuador, Mexico, Panama, Peru, Uruguay, and Spain, thanks to the collaboration of the different National Radioprotection Societies of the above mentioned countries, and of other concerned professionals (in case they didn't have any association at the time). The following comparisons will be presented: 1) Differences between experts' and the public; 2) differences among several groups of 'experts'; 3) within the 'expert' sample, differences between perceived seriousness as a patient and as a professional at risk; 4) within the public sample, individual differences related to some socio-demographic variables. A cross-cultural analysis of the above mentioned comparisons will also be carried out. (author)

A simple fish-based approach to assess the ecological quality of freshwater reservoirs in Central Europe

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Blabolil Petr

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The assessment of ecological quality in freshwater ecosystems is a key issue in many countries, but conditions for the development of assessment methodologies are often country-specific. This study proposes a simple methodology for the assessment of the ecological potential of reservoirs based on fish communities using a dataset covering major environmental and pressure gradients in reservoirs in the Czech Republic. Fish data obtained by gillnet sampling were correlated with a proxy of eutrophication as a key indicator of anthropogenic pressure for selecting appropriate fish-based indicators, establishing scoring criteria and developing the index of ecological quality. Expert judgement was also used to select potential fish indicators. Nine indicators were selected for the final fish-based index, fulfilling the criteria required by the Water Framework Directive. Two steps were used to validate the fish-based index quantification of its inter annual stability and sensitivity analysis of individual indicators. Finally, the index was compared to a previously developed general index for Central and Western Europe. Our study demonstrates that a combination of expert judgement and strict validation methods can result in an informative assessment of the ecological conditions, which can help identify conservation and restoration priorities.

Memory judgements: the contribution of detail and emotion to assessments of believability and reliability.

Science.gov (United States)

Justice, Lucy V; Smith, Harriet M J

2018-06-06

In legal settings, jury members, police, and legal professionals often have to make judgements about witnesses' or victims' memories of events. Without a scientific understanding of memory, (often erroneous) beliefs are used to make decisions. Evaluation of the literature identified two prevalent beliefs that could influence judgements: (1) memory operates like a video recorder therefore, accounts that are detailed are more believable than those containing vague descriptions, and (2) memories recalled with congruent emotion are more believable than those recalled with incongruent emotion. A 2 (emotionality: emotional, non-emotional) × 2 (detail: high, low) factorial design was generated. In line with previous research, participants made believability judgements (Experiment 1) but uniquely, participants were also asked to judge the reliability of the rememberer's recall (Experiment 2). Self-reported confidence, personality measures, and political orientation were also recorded. Believability judgements did not vary as a function of detail or emotion but detailed accounts were judged as more reliable than vague accounts. Confidence and believability were positively correlated, whereas the confidence-reliability relationship was more complex. Personality and political measures were independent of judgements of both constructs. Our results suggest that believability and reliability are distinct constructs and should be examined as such in future research.

Feed type based expert systems in mineral processing plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jamsa-Jounela, S.-L.; Laine, S.; Laurila, H.

1999-01-01

Artificial Intelligence includes excellent tools for the control and supervision of industrial processes. Several thousand industrial applications have been reported worldwide. Recently, the designers of the AI systems have begun to hybridize the intelligent techniques, expert systems, fuzzy logic and neural networks, to enhance the capability of the AI systems. Expert systems have proved to be ideal candidates especially for the control of mineral processes. As successful case projects, expert system based on on-line classification of the feed type is described in this paper. The essential feature of this expert system is the classification of different feed types and their distinct control strategies at the plant. In addition to the classification, the expert system has a database containing information about how to handle the determined feed type. This self-learning database scans historical process data to suggest the best treatment for the ore type under processing. The system has been tested in two concentrators, the Outokumpu Finnmines Oy, Hitura mine and Outokumpu Chrome Oy, Kemi mine. (author)

The influence of discrete emotions on judgement and decision-making: a meta-analytic review.

Science.gov (United States)

Angie, Amanda D; Connelly, Shane; Waples, Ethan P; Kligyte, Vykinta

2011-12-01

During the past three decades, researchers interested in emotions and cognition have attempted to understand the relationship that affect and emotions have with cognitive outcomes such as judgement and decision-making. Recent research has revealed the importance of examining more discrete emotions, showing that same-valence emotions (e.g., anger and fear) differentially impact judgement and decision-making outcomes. Narrative reviews of the literature (Lerner & Tiedens, 2006 ; Pham, 2007 ) have identified some under-researched topics, but provide a limited synthesis of findings. The purpose of this study was to review the research examining the influence of discrete emotions on judgement and decision-making outcomes and provide an assessment of the observed effects using a meta-analytic approach. Results, overall, show that discrete emotions have moderate to large effects on judgement and decision-making outcomes. However, moderator analyses revealed differential effects for study-design characteristics and emotion-manipulation characteristics by emotion type. Implications are discussed.

Uncertainty in geological linework: communicating the expert's tacit model to the data user(s) by expert elicitation.

Science.gov (United States)

Lawley, Russell; Barron, Mark; Lark, Murray

2015-04-01

At BGS, expert elicitation has been used to evaluate uncertainty of surveyed boundaries in several, common, geological scenarios. As a result, a 'collective' understanding of the issues surrounding each scenario has emerged. The work has provoked wider debate in three key areas: a) what can we do to resolve those scenarios where a 'consensus' of understanding cannot be achieved b) what does it mean for survey practices and subsequent use of maps in 3D models c) how do we communicate the 'collective' understanding of geological mapping (with or without consensus for specific scenarios). Previous work elicited expert judgement for uncertainty in six contrasting mapping scenarios. In five cases it was possible to arrive at a consensus model; in a sixth case experts with different experience (length of service, academic background) took very different views of the nature of the mapping problem. The scenario concerned identification of the boundary between two contrasting tills (one derived from Triassic source materials being red in colour; the other, derived from Jurassic materials being grey in colour). Initial debate during the elicitation identified that the colour contrast should provide some degree of confidence in locating the boundary via traditional auger-traverse survey methods. However, as the elicitation progressed, it became clear that the complexities of the relationship between the two Tills were not uniformly understood across the experts and the panel could not agree a consensus regarding the spatial uncertainty of the boundary. The elicitation process allowed a significant degree of structured knowledge-exchange between experts of differing backgrounds and was successful in identifying a measure of uncertainty for what was considered a contentious scenario. However, the findings have significant implications for a boundary-scenario that is widely mapped across the central regions of Great Britain. We will discuss our experience of the use of

An expert system based software sizing tool, phase 2

Science.gov (United States)

Friedlander, David

1990-01-01

A software tool was developed for predicting the size of a future computer program at an early stage in its development. The system is intended to enable a user who is not expert in Software Engineering to estimate software size in lines of source code with an accuracy similar to that of an expert, based on the program's functional specifications. The project was planned as a knowledge based system with a field prototype as the goal of Phase 2 and a commercial system planned for Phase 3. The researchers used techniques from Artificial Intelligence and knowledge from human experts and existing software from NASA's COSMIC database. They devised a classification scheme for the software specifications, and a small set of generic software components that represent complexity and apply to large classes of programs. The specifications are converted to generic components by a set of rules and the generic components are input to a nonlinear sizing function which makes the final prediction. The system developed for this project predicted code sizes from the database with a bias factor of 1.06 and a fluctuation factor of 1.77, an accuracy similar to that of human experts but without their significant optimistic bias.

Bases for conceptualisation of the notion of expert thinking

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Krnjaić Zora

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Institute of Psychology, Faculty of Philosophy, University of Belgrade This paper presents the bases for conceptualisation of the notion of expert thinking: the key concepts from the L.S. Vygotsky's theory and modern theories of giftedness, as well as empirical findings about the differences in achievement of gifted students from different academic study groups. We first present the conceptual core of the notion of expert thinking, i.e. the concept of artificial development from the sociocultural-historical theory of Vygotsky. Then we proceed to the bases which refer to relevant theoretical discussions and empirical findings about the development of giftedness and expertise, indicating that the phenomena of giftedness and expert thinking can be considered as general developmental psychological problems and in the context of general cognitive development and thinking. Special part refers to empirical data about differences in achievement in psychological tests by the most successful intellectually gifted students from various academic study groups. The paper also includes the working definition of expert thinking, which is defined as thinking of higher order, developed under the influence of culture and systematic education, in the course of which deep knowledge structures are acquired, enabling performance of specific patterns of intellectual operations which depend on particular epistemological nature of individual knowledge domains.

Expert System

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hildebrandt, Thomas Troels; Cattani, Gian Luca

2016-01-01

An expert system is a computer system for inferring knowledge from a knowledge base, typically by using a set of inference rules. When the concept of expert systems was introduced at Stanford University in the early 1970s, the knowledge base was an unstructured set of facts. Today the knowledge b...... for the application of expert systems, but also raises issues regarding privacy and legal liability....

On the performance of social network and likelihood-based expert weighting schemes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cooke, Roger M.; ElSaadany, Susie; Huang Xinzheng

2008-01-01

Using expert judgment data from the TU Delft's expert judgment database, we compare the performance of different weighting schemes, namely equal weighting, performance-based weighting from the classical model [Cooke RM. Experts in uncertainty. Oxford: Oxford University Press; 1991.], social network (SN) weighting and likelihood weighting. The picture that emerges with regard to SN weights is rather mixed. SN theory does not provide an alternative to performance-based combination of expert judgments, since the statistical accuracy of the SN decision maker is sometimes unacceptably low. On the other hand, it does outperform equal weighting in the majority of cases. The results here, though not overwhelmingly positive, do nonetheless motivate further research into social interaction methods for nominating and weighting experts. Indeed, a full expert judgment study with performance measurement requires an investment in time and effort, with a view to securing external validation. If high confidence in a comparable level of validation can be obtained by less intensive methods, this would be very welcome, and would facilitate the application of structured expert judgment in situations where the resources for a full study are not available. Likelihood weights are just as resource intensive as performance-based weights, and the evidence presented here suggests that they are inferior to performance-based weights with regard to those scoring variables which are optimized in performance weights (calibration and information). Perhaps surprisingly, they are also inferior with regard to likelihood. Their use is further discouraged by the fact that they constitute a strongly improper scoring rule

Web-based expert system for foundry pollution prevention

Science.gov (United States)

Moynihan, Gary P.

2004-02-01

Pollution prevention is a complex task. Many small foundries lack the in-house expertise to perform these tasks. Expert systems are a type of computer information system that incorporates artificial intelligence. As noted in the literature, they provide a means of automating specialized expertise. This approach may be further leveraged by implementing the expert system on the internet (or world-wide web). This will allow distribution of the expertise to a variety of geographically-dispersed foundries. The purpose of this research is to develop a prototype web-based expert system to support pollution prevention for the foundry industry. The prototype system identifies potential emissions for a specified process, and also provides recommendations for the prevention of these contaminants. The system is viewed as an initial step toward assisting the foundry industry in better meeting government pollution regulations, as well as improving operating efficiencies within these companies.

Wisdom and narrative: Dealing with complexity and judgement in ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Wisdom and narrative: Dealing with complexity and judgement in translator education. ... This article explores wisdom as concept to guide translator education in institutions of higher education. It uses the work ... AJOL African Journals Online.

Development of a rule-based diagnostic platform on an object-oriented expert system shell

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, Wenlin; Yang, Ming; Seong, Poong Hyun

2016-01-01

Highlights: • Multilevel Flow Model represents system knowledge as a domain map in expert system. • Rule-based fault diagnostic expert system can identify root cause via a causal chain. • Rule-based fault diagnostic expert system can be used for fault simulation training. - Abstract: This paper presents the development and implementation of a real-time rule-based diagnostic platform. The knowledge is acquired from domain experts and textbooks and the design of the fault diagnosis expert system was performed in the following ways: (i) establishing of corresponding classes and instances to build the domain map, (ii) creating of generic fault models based on events, and (iii) building of diagnostic reasoning based on rules. Knowledge representation is a complicated issue of expert systems. One highlight of this paper is that the Multilevel Flow Model has been used to represent the knowledge, which composes the domain map within the expert system as well as providing a concise description of the system. The developed platform is illustrated using the pressure safety system of a pressurized water reactor as an example of the simulation test bed; the platform is developed using the commercial and industrially validated software G2. The emulation test was conducted and it has been proven that the fault diagnosis expert system can identify the faults correctly and in a timely way; this system can be used as a simulation-based training tool to assist operators to make better decisions.

Model-based expert systems for linac computer controls

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, M.J.

1988-09-01

The use of machine modeling and beam simulation programs for the control of accelerator operation has become standard practice. The success of a model-based control operation depends on how the parameter to be controlled is measured, how the measured data is analyzed, how the result of the analysis is interpreted, and how a solution is implemented. There is considerable interest in applying expert systems technology that can automate all of these processes. The design of an expert system to control the beam trajectory in linear accelerators will be discussed as an illustration of this approach. 4 figs., 1 tab

Giving “Best Advice”: Proposing a Framework of Community Pharmacist Professional Judgement Formation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cicely Roche

2014-02-01

Full Text Available Community pharmacy is often portrayed as a marriage of professional and business roles in a commercial domain, thereby creating a need for, and value in, pursuing the development of professional competencies for use in the community pharmacy business. In context, professional judgement is the application of knowledge, skills and attitudes (competencies which, when applied to situations where there is no one or obvious right or wrong way to proceed, gives a patient a better likelihood of a favourable outcome than if a lay-person had made the decision. The challenge for community pharmacists is that professional judgement formation is influenced by professional, commercial and personal criteria with inherent interconnected challenges. In community pharmacy practice in the Republic of Ireland (ROI, this challenge is compounded by the fact that advice is normally provided in an environment where the pharmacist provides professional advice “for free” and then may offer to sell the patient a product or service based on that advice, an activity which amounts to a commercial transaction. While there is currently no evidence to confirm whether or not these professional judgement influences are resolved successfully, their very existence poses a risk that their resolution “in the wrong way” could compromise patient outcomes or professional standing following the delivery of pharmacy services. It is therefore apparent that a community pharmacist requires skills in identifying and analysing professional/commercial/personal influences in order to appreciate the criteria which may affect both parties’ (patient and pharmacist decision making. By contemplating the interaction between the pharmacist’s professional competencies and the individual influences on that pharmacist, we can consider the enhancement of professional competencies that underpin the “best” advice being offered to the patient, regardless of whether that advice is offered in

Expert validation of fit-for-purpose guidelines for designing programmes of assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dijkstra Joost

2012-04-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background An assessment programme, a purposeful mix of assessment activities, is necessary to achieve a complete picture of assessee competence. High quality assessment programmes exist, however, design requirements for such programmes are still unclear. We developed guidelines for design based on an earlier developed framework which identified areas to be covered. A fitness-for-purpose approach defining quality was adopted to develop and validate guidelines. Methods First, in a brainstorm, ideas were generated, followed by structured interviews with 9 international assessment experts. Then, guidelines were fine-tuned through analysis of the interviews. Finally, validation was based on expert consensus via member checking. Results In total 72 guidelines were developed and in this paper the most salient guidelines are discussed. The guidelines are related and grouped per layer of the framework. Some guidelines were so generic that these are applicable in any design consideration. These are: the principle of proportionality, rationales should underpin each decisions, and requirement of expertise. Logically, many guidelines focus on practical aspects of assessment. Some guidelines were found to be clear and concrete, others were less straightforward and were phrased more as issues for contemplation. Conclusions The set of guidelines is comprehensive and not bound to a specific context or educational approach. From the fitness-for-purpose principle, guidelines are eclectic, requiring expertise judgement to use them appropriately in different contexts. Further validation studies to test practicality are required.

Comparing the treatment of uncertainty in Bayesian networks and fuzzy expert systems used for a human reliability analysis application

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baraldi, Piero; Podofillini, Luca; Mkrtchyan, Lusine; Zio, Enrico; Dang, Vinh N.

2015-01-01

The use of expert systems can be helpful to improve the transparency and repeatability of assessments in areas of risk analysis with limited data available. In this field, human reliability analysis (HRA) is no exception, and, in particular, dependence analysis is an HRA task strongly based on analyst judgement. The analysis of dependence among Human Failure Events refers to the assessment of the effect of an earlier human failure on the probability of the subsequent ones. This paper analyses and compares two expert systems, based on Bayesian Belief Networks and Fuzzy Logic (a Fuzzy Expert System, FES), respectively. The comparison shows that a BBN approach should be preferred in all the cases characterized by quantifiable uncertainty in the input (i.e. when probability distributions can be assigned to describe the input parameters uncertainty), since it provides a satisfactory representation of the uncertainty and its output is directly interpretable for use within PSA. On the other hand, in cases characterized by very limited knowledge, an analyst may feel constrained by the probabilistic framework, which requires assigning probability distributions for describing uncertainty. In these cases, the FES seems to lead to a more transparent representation of the input and output uncertainty. - Highlights: • We analyse treatment of uncertainty in two expert systems. • We compare a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) and a Fuzzy Expert System (FES). • We focus on the input assessment, inference engines and output assessment. • We focus on an application problem of interest for human reliability analysis. • We emphasize the application rather than math to reach non-BBN or FES specialists

Expert system for aiding fuel exchange planning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shiratori, Yoshitake.

1992-01-01

A fuel exchange plan is prepared based on intelligence bases such as a method of zoning a reactor core, a fuel arrangement rule and a procedure for fuel exchange, as well as initial data. Then, the fuel exchange plans are patterned to several groups based on the intelligence bases such as patterning of fuel arrangement. A typical pattern is analyzed by a reactor core analyzing code and allowance or rejection for the analyzed patterns is judged based on intelligence bases regarding life time of the reactor core, thermal limit value of fuels, burning of fuel for irradiation test. The result of the judgement is fed-back as an estimation information and the initial data and the intelligence data are added to prepare a plan again. A similar analysis is also conducted for the plan of the rejected group. The allowance or rejection is judged for all of the plans in the same manner. The intelligence bases are used and the result of the judgement is fed-back as a condition for estimation, thereby enabling to remarkably save labors and time and prepare non-typical exchange plans. (N.H.)

A PC-based expert system for nondestructive testing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shankar, R.; Williams, R.; Smith, C.; Selby, G.

1991-01-01

Rule-based decision logic which can emulate problem-solving expertise of humans is being explored for power plant nondestructive evaluation (NDE) applications. This paper describes an effort underway at the EPRI NDE Center to assist in the interpretation of NDE data acquired by automatic systems during ultrasonic weld examination of boiling-water reactors (BWRs). A personal computer (PC) -based expert system shell was used to encode rules and assemble knowledge to address the discrimination of intergranular stress corrosion cracking (IGSCC) from benign reflectors in the inspection of pipe-to-component welds. The rules attempt to factor in plant inspection history, ultrasonic examination data nd, if available, radiography testing data; a majority of them deal with specific ultrasonic signal temporal and spatial behavior during automatic scanning. The paper describes the efforts in the development of the expert system

Are teachers' judgements of pupils' ability influenced by body shape?

Science.gov (United States)

Shackleton, N L; Campbell, T

2014-04-01

Evidence indicates that teachers can judge pupils on the basis of their physical appearance, including their body shape. Teacher bias towards obese pupils has been suggested as a potential pathway through which obese children attain relatively lower academic levels. The aim of this study was to investigate whether teachers' judgements of pupils' ability are influenced by the body shape of the child. The sample includes English, singleton children in state schools from the Millennium Cohort Study. The data were taken from the fourth wave of data collection, when the children were approximately 7 years old. In all, 5086/5072 children had teacher ability ratings of reading and maths. Logistic regression analyses were used to test whether teachers' perceptions of the child's reading and mathematics ability were influenced by the pupil's waist circumference, conditional upon cognitive test scores of reading and maths ability. After adjustment for cognitive test scores, no significant overall relationship was found between the pupil's waist circumference and the teacher's judgements of ability. No statistically significant differences were observed in the probability of being judged as above average after further adjustments were made for potential confounders. There is little evidence that teachers' judgements of pupils' ability are influenced by obesity.

System of Objectified Judgement Analysis (SOJA) as a tool in rational and transparent drug-decision making.

Science.gov (United States)

Janknegt, Robert; Scott, Mike; Mairs, Jill; Timoney, Mark; McElnay, James; Brenninkmeijer, Rob

2007-10-01

Drug selection should be a rational process that embraces the principles of evidence-based medicine. However, many factors may affect the choice of agent. It is against this background that the System of Objectified Judgement Analysis (SOJA) process for rational drug-selection was developed. This article describes how the information on which the SOJA process is based, was researched and processed.

Expert2OWL: A Methodology for Pattern-Based Ontology Development.

Science.gov (United States)

Tahar, Kais; Xu, Jie; Herre, Heinrich

2017-01-01

The formalization of expert knowledge enables a broad spectrum of applications employing ontologies as underlying technology. These include eLearning, Semantic Web and expert systems. However, the manual construction of such ontologies is time-consuming and thus expensive. Moreover, experts are often unfamiliar with the syntax and semantics of formal ontology languages such as OWL and usually have no experience in developing formal ontologies. To overcome these barriers, we developed a new method and tool, called Expert2OWL that provides efficient features to support the construction of OWL ontologies using GFO (General Formal Ontology) as a top-level ontology. This method allows a close and effective collaboration between ontologists and domain experts. Essentially, this tool integrates Excel spreadsheets as part of a pattern-based ontology development and refinement process. Expert2OWL enables us to expedite the development process and modularize the resulting ontologies. We applied this method in the field of Chinese Herbal Medicine (CHM) and used Expert2OWL to automatically generate an accurate Chinese Herbology ontology (CHO). The expressivity of CHO was tested and evaluated using ontology query languages SPARQL and DL. CHO shows promising results and can generate answers to important scientific questions such as which Chinese herbal formulas contain which substances, which substances treat which diseases, and which ones are the most frequently used in CHM.

Clinical judgement within the South African clinical nursing environment: A concept analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anna C. van Graan

2016-10-01

Full Text Available Reform in the South African healthcare and educational system were characterized by the ideals that the country needs to produce independent, critical thinkers. Nurses need to cope with diversity in a more creative way, defining their role in a complex, uncertain, rapidly changing health care environment. Quality clinical judgement is therefore imperative as an identified characteristic of newly qualified professional nurses. The objective of this study was to explore and describe clinical judgement through various data sources and review of literature to clarify the meaning and promote a common understanding through formulating the characteristics and developing a connotative (theoretical definition of the concept. An explorative, descriptive qualitative design was used to discover the complexity and meaning of the phenomenon. Multiple data sources and search strategies were used, for the time frame 1982—2013. A concept analysis was used to arrive at a theoretical definition of the concept of ‘clinical judgement’ as a complex cognitive skill to evaluate patient needs, adaption of current treatment protocols as well as new treatment strategies, prevention of adverse side effects through being proactive rather than reactive within the clinical nursing environment. The findings emphasized clinical judgement as skill within the clinical nursing environment, thereby improving autonomous and accountable nursing care. These findings will assist nurse leaders and clinical nurse educators in developing a teaching-learning strategy to promote clinical judgement in undergraduate nursing students, thereby contributing to the quality of nursing care.

Knowledge based economy: The role of expert diaspora

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Filipović Jovan

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Diasporas stand out as an economic or cultural avant-garde of transformation. This is especially true for academic and other intellectual Diaspora communities, because science and knowledge creation are global enterprises. Proclivity of knowledge workers to move in order to improve and absorb transnational knowledge through Diaspora networks might be an essential quality of an emerging national economy of a developing country. The article treats the role of expert Diaspora in knowledge based economy, innovation and talent management. Besides presenting the essentials of knowledge based economy and innovation, it discusses the role of expert Diaspora in science, technology and innovation (STI capacity building. Also, the article emphasizes the importance of leadership for talent and its implications for Diaspora. Using WEF statistics, it illustrates negative consequences of the sad policy of “Chaseaway the brightest and the best” for innovative capacity, competitiveness, and prosperity of nations.

Expert Systems

OpenAIRE

Lucas, P.J.F.

2005-01-01

Expert systems mimic the problem-solving activity of human experts in specialized domains by capturing and representing expert knowledge. Expert systems include a knowledge base, an inference engine that derives conclusions from the knowledge, and a user interface. Knowledge may be stored as if-then rules, orusing other formalisms such as frames and predicate logic. Uncertain knowledge may be represented using certainty factors, Bayesian networks, Dempster-Shafer belief functions, or fuzzy se...

Findings from analysing and quantifying human error using current methods

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dang, V.N.; Reer, B.

1999-01-01

In human reliability analysis (HRA), the scarcity of data means that, at best, judgement must be applied to transfer to the domain of the analysis what data are available for similar tasks. In particular for the quantification of tasks involving decisions, the analyst has to choose among quantification approaches that all depend to a significant degree on expert judgement. The use of expert judgement can be made more reliable by eliciting relative judgements rather than absolute judgements. These approaches, which are based on multiple criterion decision theory, focus on ranking the tasks to be analysed by difficulty. While these approaches remedy at least partially the poor performance of experts in the estimation of probabilities, they nevertheless require the calibration of the relative scale on which the actions are ranked in order to obtain the probabilities of interest. This paper presents some results from a comparison of some current HRA methods performed in the frame of a study of SLIM calibration options. The HRA quantification methods THERP, HEART, and INTENT were applied to derive calibration human error probabilities for two groups of operator actions. (author)

First Impressions: Gait Cues Drive Reliable Trait Judgements

Science.gov (United States)

Thoresen, John C.; Vuong, Quoc C.; Atkinson, Anthony P.

2012-01-01

Personality trait attribution can underpin important social decisions and yet requires little effort; even a brief exposure to a photograph can generate lasting impressions. Body movement is a channel readily available to observers and allows judgements to be made when facial and body appearances are less visible; e.g., from great distances.…

Neural network based expert system for fault diagnosis of particle accelerators

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dewidar, M.M.

1997-01-01

Particle accelerators are generators that produce beams of charged particles, acquiring different energies, depending on the accelerator type. The MGC-20 cyclotron is a cyclic particle accelerator used for accelerating protons, deuterons, alpha particles, and helium-3 to different energies. Its applications include isotope production, nuclear reaction, and mass spectroscopy studies. It is a complicated machine, it consists of five main parts, the ion source, the deflector, the beam transport system, the concentric and harmonic coils, and the radio frequency system. The diagnosis of this device is a very complex task. it depends on the conditions of 27 indicators of the control panel of the device. The accurate diagnosis can lead to a high system reliability and save maintenance costs. so an expert system for the cyclotron fault diagnosis is necessary to be built. In this thesis , a hybrid expert system was developed for the fault diagnosis of the MGC-20 cyclotron. Two intelligent techniques, multilayer feed forward back propagation neural network and the rule based expert system, are integrated as a pre-processor loosely coupled model to build the proposed hybrid expert system. The architecture of the developed hybrid expert system consists of two levels. The first level is two feed forward back propagation neural networks, used for isolating the faulty part of the cyclotron. The second level is the rule based expert system, used for troubleshooting the faults inside the isolated faulty part. 4-6 tabs., 4-5 figs., 36 refs

The Potential of Computer-Based Expert Systems for Special Educators in Rural Settings.

Science.gov (United States)

Parry, James D.; Ferrara, Joseph M.

Knowledge-based expert computer systems are addressing issues relevant to all special educators, but are particularly relevant in rural settings where human experts are less available because of distance and cost. An expert system is an application of artificial intelligence (AI) that typically engages the user in a dialogue resembling the…

Web-based Weather Expert System (WES) for Space Shuttle Launch

Science.gov (United States)

Bardina, Jorge E.; Rajkumar, T.

2003-01-01

The Web-based Weather Expert System (WES) is a critical module of the Virtual Test Bed development to support 'go/no go' decisions for Space Shuttle operations in the Intelligent Launch and Range Operations program of NASA. The weather rules characterize certain aspects of the environment related to the launching or landing site, the time of the day or night, the pad or runway conditions, the mission durations, the runway equipment and landing type. Expert system rules are derived from weather contingency rules, which were developed over years by NASA. Backward chaining, a goal-directed inference method is adopted, because a particular consequence or goal clause is evaluated first, and then chained backward through the rules. Once a rule is satisfied or true, then that particular rule is fired and the decision is expressed. The expert system is continuously verifying the rules against the past one-hour weather conditions and the decisions are made. The normal procedure of operations requires a formal pre-launch weather briefing held on Launch minus 1 day, which is a specific weather briefing for all areas of Space Shuttle launch operations. In this paper, the Web-based Weather Expert System of the Intelligent Launch and range Operations program is presented.

Arrested development: early prefrontal lesions impair the maturation of moral judgement.

Science.gov (United States)

Taber-Thomas, Bradley C; Asp, Erik W; Koenigs, Michael; Sutterer, Matthew; Anderson, Steven W; Tranel, Daniel

2014-04-01

Learning to make moral judgements based on considerations beyond self-interest is a fundamental aspect of moral development. A deficit in such learning is associated with poor socialization and criminal behaviour. The neural systems required for the acquisition and maturation of moral competency are not well understood. Here we show in a unique sample of neurological patients that focal lesions involving ventromedial prefrontal cortex, acquired during development, result in an abnormally egocentric pattern of moral judgement. In response to simple hypothetical moral scenarios, the patients were more likely than comparison participants to endorse self-interested actions that involved breaking moral rules or physically harming others in order to benefit themselves. This pattern (which we also found in subjects with psychopathy) differs from that of patients with adult-onset ventromedial prefrontal cortex lesions--the latter group showed normal rejection of egocentric rule violations. This novel contrast of patients with ventromedial prefrontal cortex lesions acquired during development versus during adulthood yields new evidence suggesting that the ventromedial prefrontal cortex is a critical neural substrate for the acquisition and maturation of moral competency that goes beyond self-interest to consider the welfare of others. Disruption to this affective neural system early in life interrupts moral development.

On Preparing for More Subjective Judgements: RAE2008

Science.gov (United States)

Johnston, Ron

2005-01-01

Ever since the first UK Research Assessment Exercise (RAE) was held in the mid-1980s panels of academics have had to make subjective judgements about the quality of work submitted by institutions. In preparation for the 2008 RAE, the four Funding Councils (Higher Education Funding Council for England, Scottish Higher Education Funding Council,…

Assessing leadership decision-making styles: psychometric properties of the Leadership Judgement Indicator

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Faraci P

2013-10-01

Full Text Available Palmira Faraci,1 Michael Lock,2 Robert Wheeler2 1Faculty of Human and Social Sciences, University of Enna “Kore”, Enna, Italy; 2Formula 4 Leadership Limited, Nottingham, UK Abstract: This study aimed to validate the Italian version of the Leadership Judgement Indicator, an unconventional instrument devoted to measurement of leaders' judgments and preferred styles, ie, directive, consultative, consensual, or delegative, when dealing with a range of decision-making scenarios. After forward-translation and back-translation, its psychometric properties were estimated for 299 managers at various levels, who were asked to put themselves in the position of leader and to rate the appropriateness of certain ways of responding to challenge. Differences between several groups of managers, ranked in order of seniority, provided evidence for discriminant validity. Internal consistency was adequate. The findings show that the Italian adaptation of the Leadership Judgement Indicator has promising psychometric qualities, suggesting its suitability for use to improve outcomes in both organizational and selection settings. Keywords: Leadership Judgement Indicator, decision-making, situational test, scenarios, psychometric properties

using subjective judgement to determine the validity of a tutorial

African Journals Online (AJOL)

2008-11-21

Nov 21, 2008 ... methodological aspects of subjective judgement will follow in the place of conventional .... Volunteers to undertake tasks. 3. Identifies learning ... Integrates legislation, ethics, social and physical sciences. 5. Evaluates and ...

Plant Distribution Data Show Broader Climatic Limits than Expert-Based Climatic Tolerance Estimates.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Caroline A Curtis

Full Text Available Although increasingly sophisticated environmental measures are being applied to species distributions models, the focus remains on using climatic data to provide estimates of habitat suitability. Climatic tolerance estimates based on expert knowledge are available for a wide range of plants via the USDA PLANTS database. We aim to test how climatic tolerance inferred from plant distribution records relates to tolerance estimated by experts. Further, we use this information to identify circumstances when species distributions are more likely to approximate climatic tolerance.We compiled expert knowledge estimates of minimum and maximum precipitation and minimum temperature tolerance for over 1800 conservation plant species from the 'plant characteristics' information in the USDA PLANTS database. We derived climatic tolerance from distribution data downloaded from the Global Biodiversity and Information Facility (GBIF and corresponding climate from WorldClim. We compared expert-derived climatic tolerance to empirical estimates to find the difference between their inferred climate niches (ΔCN, and tested whether ΔCN was influenced by growth form or range size.Climate niches calculated from distribution data were significantly broader than expert-based tolerance estimates (Mann-Whitney p values << 0.001. The average plant could tolerate 24 mm lower minimum precipitation, 14 mm higher maximum precipitation, and 7° C lower minimum temperatures based on distribution data relative to expert-based tolerance estimates. Species with larger ranges had greater ΔCN for minimum precipitation and minimum temperature. For maximum precipitation and minimum temperature, forbs and grasses tended to have larger ΔCN while grasses and trees had larger ΔCN for minimum precipitation.Our results show that distribution data are consistently broader than USDA PLANTS experts' knowledge and likely provide more robust estimates of climatic tolerance, especially for

Depressive realism and the effect of intertrial interval on judgements of zero, positive, and negative contingencies.

Science.gov (United States)

Msetfi, Rachel M; Murphy, Robin A; Simpson, Jane

2007-03-01

In three experiments we tested how the spacing of trials during acquisition of zero, positive, and negative response-outcome contingencies differentially affected depressed and nondepressed students' judgements. Experiment 1 found that nondepressed participants' judgements of zero contingencies increased with longer intertrial intervals (ITIs) but not simply longer procedure durations. Depressed groups' judgements were not sensitive to either manipulation, producing an effect known as depressive realism only with long ITIs. Experiments 2 and 3 tested predictions of Cheng's (1997) Power PC theory and the Rescorla-Wagner (1972) model, that the increase in context exposure experienced during the ITI might influence judgements most with negative contingencies and least with positive contingencies. Results suggested that depressed people were less sensitive to differences in contingency and contextual exposure. We propose that a context-processing difference between depressed and nondepressed people removes any objective notion of "realism" that was originally employed to explain the depressive realism effect (Alloy & Abramson, 1979).

Developing a personal computer based expert system for radionuclide identification

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aarnio, P.A.; Hakulinen, T.T.

1990-01-01

Several expert system development tools are available for personal computers today. We have used one of the LISP-based high end tools for nearly two years in developing an expert system for identification of gamma sources. The system contains a radionuclide database of 2055 nuclides and 48000 gamma transitions with a knowledge base of about sixty rules. This application combines a LISP-based inference engine with database management and relatively heavy numerical calculations performed using C-language. The most important feature needed has been the possibility to use LISP and C together with the more advanced object oriented features of the development tool. Main difficulties have been long response times and the big amount (10-16 MB) of computer memory required

5-HT modulation by acute tryptophan depletion of human instrumental contingency judgements.

Science.gov (United States)

Chase, Henry W; Crockett, Molly J; Msetfi, Rachel M; Murphy, Robin A; Clark, Luke; Sahakian, Barbara J; Robbins, Trevor W

2011-02-01

The concept of 'depressive realism', that depression leads to more accurate perception of causal control, has been influential in the field of depression research, but remains controversial. Recent work testing contingency learning has suggested that contextual processing might determine realism-like effects. Serotonin (5-hydroxytryptamine, (5-HT)), which is implicated in the pathophysiology of depression, might also influence contextual processing. Using acute tryptophan depletion (ATD), we tested the hypothesis that dysfunctional serotoninergic neurotransmission influences contingency judgements in dysphoric subjects via an effect on contextual processing. We employed a novel contingency learning task to obtain separate measures (ratings) of the causal effect of participants' responses and efficacy of the background context over an outcome. Participants, without a history of depression, completed this task on and off ATD in a double-blind, placebo-controlled, within-subjects design. As with other work on contingency learning, the effects of ATD were related to baseline mood levels. Although no overall effects of ATD were observed, the subgroup of participants with low Beck depression inventory (BDI) scores showed reduced ratings of contextual control and improved accuracy of contingency judgements under positive contingencies following ATD, compared to placebo. High BDI participants demonstrated low accuracy in contingency judgements, regardless of serotoninergic status. No effect of ATD on contingency judgements was observed in the group as a whole, but effects were observed in a subgroup of participants with low BDI scores. We discuss these data in light of the context processing hypothesis, and prior research on 5-HT and depressive realism.

The contribution of emotional empathy to approachability judgements assigned to emotional faces is context specific

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Megan L Willis

2015-08-01

Full Text Available Previous research on approachability judgements has indicated that facial expressions modulate how these judgements are made, but the relationship between emotional empathy and context in this decision-making process has not yet been examined. This study examined the contribution of emotional empathy to approachability judgements assigned to emotional faces in different contexts. One hundred and twenty female participants completed the Questionnaire Measure of Emotional Empathy. Participants provided approachability judgements to faces displaying angry, disgusted, fearful, happy, neutral and sad expressions, in three different contexts – when evaluating whether they would approach another individual to: 1 receive help; 2 give help; or 3 when no contextual information was provided. In addition, participants were also required to provide ratings of perceived threat, emotional intensity and label facial expressions. Emotional empathy significantly predicted approachability ratings for specific emotions in each context, over and above the contribution of perceived threat and intensity, which were associated with emotional empathy. Higher emotional empathy predicted less willingness to approach people with angry and disgusted faces to receive help, and a greater willingness to approach people with happy faces to receive help. Higher emotional empathy also predicted a greater willingness to approach people with sad faces to offer help, and more willingness to approach people with happy faces when no contextual information was provided. These results highlight the important contribution of individual differences in emotional empathy in predicting how approachability judgements are assigned to facial expressions in context.

'What on earth can this possibly mean'? French reentry courts and experts' risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Herzog-Evans, Martine

2016-01-01

Against the backdrop of ten years of punitive criminal justice policies, the number of cases in which risk assessments by psychiatrist experts are mandatory has considerably increased in France. Because of complex and deeply ingrained cultural factors, most experts and academics oppose the use of actuarial or other structured judgement tools, which they assimilate to these policy changes. Parallel to this, the reentry judges in charge of making release and other community sentence decisions have maintained a strong rehabilitative and desistance-focused culture. Drawing on interviews with these judges and experts, the author wanted to assess the judges' expectations of experts' reports, their opinion on actuarial tools, and how they perceived experts and their aptitude to assess risk. The study showed that French reentry judges manage to keep experts' conclusions at bay when they do not fit with their desistance goals, as they can draw upon their own expertise and that of probation services. They do not have much faith in the professionalism and methodology of experts, and would like them to better demonstrate how they reach their conclusions. Moreover, criminogenic needs assessment would be much more useful to them than static risk assessment, which raises the issue as to why this is not the French probation services' role. Reentry judges who never encountered a report which uses a structured tool are influenced by the French ideological debate; those who have read such reports are unanimously in favour of such tools. It thus seems clear that they would like experts to be more strongly guided by science, but are not yet fully aware of what this entails. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A development process meta-model for Web based expert systems: The Web engineering point of view

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dokas, I.M.; Alapetite, Alexandre

2006-01-01

raised their complexity. Unfortunately, there is so far no clear answer to the question: How may the methods and experience of Web engineering and expert systems be combined and applied in order todevelop effective and successful Web based expert systems? In an attempt to answer this question...... on Web based expert systems – will be presented. The idea behind the presentation of theaccessibility evaluation and its conclusions is to show to Web based expert system developers, who typically have little Web engineering background, that Web engineering issues must be considered when developing Web......Similar to many legacy computer systems, expert systems can be accessed via the Web, forming a set of Web applications known as Web based expert systems. The tough Web competition, the way people and organizations rely on Web applications and theincreasing user requirements for better services have...

A conceptual framework to facilitate clinical judgement in nursing: A ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Anna Catharina van Graan

dent, critical thinking nurses who can cope with diversity in a creative way and define their role in a complex, ... Previous research (concept analysis of clinical judgement and focus group ...... African and international journal databases: EBSCO ...

The effect of evaluation on co-occurrence memory judgement.

Science.gov (United States)

Bar-Anan, Yoav; Amzaleg-David, Efrat

2014-01-01

Three experiments tested the effect of an attitude towards an object on the memory judgement of whether this object co-occurred with positive versus negative stimuli. We induced positive or negative attitudes towards novel male stimuli, and paired each man with an equal number of positive and negative animals. In a memory test, participants reported more co-occurrences of same-valence man/animal pairs than opposite-valence pairs. This valence-compatibility effect occurred even when attitudes were induced after the pairing (Experiment 1), when participants knew that each man occurred with an equal number of positive and negative animals (Experiment 2), and in reports of clear memory of pairs that did not co-occur (Experiment 3). The present findings suggest that evaluation causes illusory correlation even when the co-occurring stimuli are not traits or behaviours attributed to the attitude object. The results question the validity of co-occurrence memory judgements as measures of co-occurrence awareness in evaluative conditioning (EC) research.

Interaction between gaze and visual and proprioceptive position judgements.

Science.gov (United States)

Fiehler, Katja; Rösler, Frank; Henriques, Denise Y P

2010-06-01

There is considerable evidence that targets for action are represented in a dynamic gaze-centered frame of reference, such that each gaze shift requires an internal updating of the target. Here, we investigated the effect of eye movements on the spatial representation of targets used for position judgements. Participants had their hand passively placed to a location, and then judged whether this location was left or right of a remembered visual or remembered proprioceptive target, while gaze direction was varied. Estimates of position of the remembered targets relative to the unseen position of the hand were assessed with an adaptive psychophysical procedure. These positional judgements significantly varied relative to gaze for both remembered visual and remembered proprioceptive targets. Our results suggest that relative target positions may also be represented in eye-centered coordinates. This implies similar spatial reference frames for action control and space perception when positions are coded relative to the hand.

Developing a project-based computational physics course grounded in expert practice

Science.gov (United States)

Burke, Christopher J.; Atherton, Timothy J.

2017-04-01

We describe a project-based computational physics course developed using a backwards course design approach. From an initial competency-based model of problem solving in computational physics, we interviewed faculty who use these tools in their own research to determine indicators of expert practice. From these, a rubric was formulated that enabled us to design a course intended to allow students to learn these skills. We also report an initial implementation of the course and, by having the interviewees regrade student work, show that students acquired many of the expert practices identified.

A method of knowledge base verification and validation for nuclear power plants expert systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kwon, Il Won

1996-02-01

The adoption of expert systems mainly as operator supporting systems is becoming increasingly popular as the control algorithms of system become more and more sophisticated and complicated. As a result of this popularity, a large number of expert systems are developed. The nature of expert systems, however, requires that they be verified and validated carefully and that detailed methodologies for their development be devised. Therefore, it is widely noted that assuring the reliability of expert systems is very important, especially in nuclear industry, and it is also recognized that the process of verification and validation is an essential part of reliability assurance for these systems. Research and practices have produced numerous methods for expert system verification and validation (V and V) that suggest traditional software and system approaches to V and V. However, many approaches and methods for expert system V and V are partial, unreliable, and not uniform. The purpose of this paper is to present a new approach to expert system V and V, based on Petri nets, providing a uniform model. We devise and suggest an automated tool, called COKEP (Checker Of Knowledge base using Extended Petri net), for checking incorrectness, inconsistency, and incompleteness in a knowledge base. We also suggest heuristic analysis for validation process to show that the reasoning path is correct

Vividness in judgements of guilt.

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Bensi, L; Nori, R; Strazzari, E; Giusberti, F

2003-12-01

This study investigated the vividness variable in legal decision-making. It was hypothesised that different verdicts regarding the same legal case can be obtained by simply varying the vividness of phrases, without changing any probative element. 53 participants read Original (26) or Vivid (27) versions of testimonies to a homicide case, then made a decision as to the defendant's guilt. Results support the hypothesis: participants' judgements significantly differ between the two conditions; that is, participants who read the Original version consider the homicide as unintentional while participants who read the Vivid one are not able to choose between intentional or unintentional homicide. Therefore we can infer that vividness influenced the process by which guilt is attributed.

A Computerised Business Ethics Expert System -A new approach to improving the ethical quality of business decision-making

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bernie Brenner

2007-06-01

Full Text Available Abstract Where unethical business decision-making arises from failures of ethical perception, there is an important role for ethical training and decision-making tools. These may help business people to consider all relevant issues when assessing the ethical status of potential decisions. Ethical training programmes give business people a basic understanding of the principles which underlie ethical judgements and equip them with many of the necessary skills for dealing with the ethical dilemmas which they face in their jobs. Similarly, ethical decision-making tools may guide managers through the various ethical considerations which are relevant to business decision-making and help them to develop their ethical-perceptual skills. Furthermore, by establishing and reinforcing good ethical decision-making practices, training programmes and decision-making tools may also reduce the incidence of self-consciously unethical decision-making. A new approach to improving the ethical quality of business decision-making by the use of computerized business ethics expert systems is proposed. These systems have the potential to guide business people through a process of ethical evaluation while simultaneously fulfilling an educational role, thus providing many of the benefits of both training programmes and decision-making tools. While the prospect of a computer system which could simply make ethical judgements for business people is both unrealistic and undesirable, a system which leads human decision-makers through a structured assessment process has the potential for genuine benefits. Keywords: Expert Systems, Ethical Decision Making

using subjective judgement to determine the validity of a tutorial

African Journals Online (AJOL)

2008-11-21

Nov 21, 2008 ... Subjective Judgement Model for paired comparison of instrument .... methods for decision making and problem solving would be ... quantitative analysis allows for repeatability and hence an audit ... Takes risks in expressing ideas ..... PBL curriculum planning, implementation and evaluation, ... Company.

Use of Occupancy Models to Evaluate Expert Knowledge-based Species-Habitat Relationships

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Monica N. Iglecia

2012-12-01

Full Text Available Expert knowledge-based species-habitat relationships are used extensively to guide conservation planning, particularly when data are scarce. Purported relationships describe the initial state of knowledge, but are rarely tested. We assessed support in the data for suitability rankings of vegetation types based on expert knowledge for three terrestrial avian species in the South Atlantic Coastal Plain of the United States. Experts used published studies, natural history, survey data, and field experience to rank vegetation types as optimal, suitable, and marginal. We used single-season occupancy models, coupled with land cover and Breeding Bird Survey data, to examine the hypothesis that patterns of occupancy conformed to species-habitat suitability rankings purported by experts. Purported habitat suitability was validated for two of three species. As predicted for the Eastern Wood-Pewee (Contopus virens and Brown-headed Nuthatch (Sitta pusilla, occupancy was strongly influenced by vegetation types classified as "optimal habitat" by the species suitability rankings for nuthatches and wood-pewees. Contrary to predictions, Red-headed Woodpecker (Melanerpes erythrocephalus models that included vegetation types as covariates received similar support by the data as models without vegetation types. For all three species, occupancy was also related to sampling latitude. Our results suggest that covariates representing other habitat requirements might be necessary to model occurrence of generalist species like the woodpecker. The modeling approach described herein provides a means to test expert knowledge-based species-habitat relationships, and hence, help guide conservation planning.

EXPERT SYSTEMS

OpenAIRE

Georgiana Marin; Mihai Catalin Andrei

2011-01-01

In recent decades IT and computer systems have evolved rapidly in economic informatics field. The goal is to create user friendly information systems that respond promptly and accurately to requests. Informatics systems evolved into decision assisted systems, and such systems are converted, based on gained experience, in expert systems for creative problem solving that an organization is facing. Expert systems are aimed at rebuilding human reasoning on the expertise obtained from experts, sto...

An approach to build a knowledge base for reactor diagnostic system using statistical method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yokobayashi, Masao; Matsumoto, Kiyoshi; Kohsaka, Atsuo

1988-01-01

In the development of a rule-based expert system, one of the key issues is how to acquire knowledge and to build a knowledge base. When the knowledge base of DISKET was built, which is an expert system for nuclear reactor accident diagnosis developed in Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute, several problems have been experienced. To write rules is a time-consuming task, and it was difficult to keep the objectivity and consistency of rules as the number of rules increased. Certainty factors must be determined often according to engineering judgement, i.e. empirically or intuitively. A systematic approach was attempted to cope with these difficulties and to build efficiently an objective knowledge base. The approach described in this paper is based on the concept that a prototype knowledge base, colloquially speaking an initial guess, should first be generated in a systematic way, then it is modified or improved by human experts for practical use. Factor analysis was used as the systematic way. DISKET system, the procedure of building a knowledge base, and the verification of the approach are reported. (Kako, I.)

Professional judgement and decision-making in adventure sports coaching: the role of interaction.

Science.gov (United States)

Collins, Loel; Collins, Dave

2016-01-01

This qualitative study presents the view that coaching practice places demands on the coach's adaptability and flexibility. These requirements for being adaptive and flexible are met through a careful process of professional judgement and decision-making based on context-appropriate bodies of knowledge. Adventure sports coaches were selected for study on the basis that adventure sports create a hyper-dynamic environment in which these features can be examined. Thematic analysis revealed that coaches were generally well informed and practised with respect to the technical aspects of their sporting disciplines. Less positively, however, they often relied on ad hoc contextualisation of generalised theories of coaching practice to respond to the hyper-dynamic environments encountered in adventure sports. We propose that coaching practice reflects the demands of the environment, individual learning needs of the students and the task at hand. Together, these factors outwardly resemble a constraints-led approach but, we suggest, actually reflect manipulation of these parameters from a cognitive rather than an ecological perspective. This process is facilitated by a refined judgement and decision-making process, sophisticated epistemology and an explicit interaction of coaching components.

A conversational case-based reasoning approach to assisting experts in solving professional problems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Negar Armaghan

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Nowadays, organizations attempt to retrieve, collect, preserve and manage knowledge and experience of experts in order to reuse them later and to promote innovation. In this sense, Experience Management is one of the important organizational issues. This article is discussed the main ideas of a future Conversational Case-Based Reasoning (CCBR intended to assist the experts of after-sales service in a French industrial company. The aim of this research is to formalize the experience of experts in after-sales service in order to better reuse them for similar problems in future. The research opts for an action research method which consists of two main parts: description of failure and proposition of decision protocol. The data were complemented by questionnaires, documentary analysis (including technical reports and other technical documents, observation and many interviews with experts. The findings include several aspects: the formalization of Problem-solving Cards, proposing the structure of case base, as well as the framework of proposed system. These formalizations permit after-sales service experts to provide effective diagnosis and problem-solving.

Automated implementation of rule-based expert systems with neural networks for time-critical applications

Science.gov (United States)

Ramamoorthy, P. A.; Huang, Song; Govind, Girish

1991-01-01

In fault diagnosis, control and real-time monitoring, both timing and accuracy are critical for operators or machines to reach proper solutions or appropriate actions. Expert systems are becoming more popular in the manufacturing community for dealing with such problems. In recent years, neural networks have revived and their applications have spread to many areas of science and engineering. A method of using neural networks to implement rule-based expert systems for time-critical applications is discussed here. This method can convert a given rule-based system into a neural network with fixed weights and thresholds. The rules governing the translation are presented along with some examples. We also present the results of automated machine implementation of such networks from the given rule-base. This significantly simplifies the translation process to neural network expert systems from conventional rule-based systems. Results comparing the performance of the proposed approach based on neural networks vs. the classical approach are given. The possibility of very large scale integration (VLSI) realization of such neural network expert systems is also discussed.

A fuzzy expert system based on relations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hall, L.O.; Kandel, A.

1986-01-01

The Fuzzy Expert System (FESS) is an expert system which makes use of the theory of fuzzy relations to perform inference. Relations are very general and can be used for any application, which only requires different types of relations be implemented and used. The incorporation of fuzzy reasoning techniques enables the expert system to deal with imprecision in a well-founded manner. The knowledge is represented in relational frames. FESS may operate in either a forward chaining or backward chaining manner. It uses primarily implication and factual relations. A unique methodology for combination of evidence has been developed. It makes uses of a blackboard for communication between the various knowledge sources which may operate in parallel. The expert system has been designed in such a manner that it may be used for diverse applications

Species identification by conservation practitioners using online images: accuracy and agreement between experts

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gail E. Austen

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Emerging technologies have led to an increase in species observations being recorded via digital images. Such visual records are easily shared, and are often uploaded to online communities when help is required to identify or validate species. Although this is common practice, little is known about the accuracy of species identification from such images. Using online images of newts that are native and non-native to the UK, this study asked holders of great crested newt (Triturus cristatus licences (issued by UK authorities to permit surveying for this species to sort these images into groups, and to assign species names to those groups. All of these experts identified the native species, but agreement among these participants was low, with some being cautious in committing to definitive identifications. Individuals’ accuracy was also independent of both their experience and self-assessed ability. Furthermore, mean accuracy was not uniform across species (69–96%. These findings demonstrate the difficulty of accurate identification of newts from a single image, and that expert judgements are variable, even within the same knowledgeable community. We suggest that identification decisions should be made on multiple images and verified by more than one expert, which could improve the reliability of species data.

The impact of expert knowledge on natural hazard susceptibility assessment using spatial multi-criteria analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Karlsson, Caroline; Kalantari, Zahra; Mörtberg, Ulla; Olofsson, Bo; Lyon, Steve

2016-04-01

Road and railway networks are one of the key factors to a country's economic growth. Inadequate infrastructural networks could be detrimental to a society if the transport between locations are hindered or delayed. Logistical hindrances can often be avoided whereas natural hindrances are more difficult to control. One natural hindrance that can have a severe adverse effect on both infrastructure and society is flooding. Intense and heavy rainfall events can trigger other natural hazards such as landslides and debris flow. Disruptions caused by landslides are similar to that of floods and increase the maintenance cost considerably. The effect on society by natural disasters is likely to increase due to a changed climate with increasing precipitation. Therefore, there is a need for risk prevention and mitigation of natural hazards. Determining susceptible areas and incorporating them in the decision process may reduce the infrastructural harm. Spatial multi-criteria analysis (SMCA) is a part of decision analysis, which provides a set of procedures for analysing complex decision problems through a Geographic Information System (GIS). The objective and aim of this study was to evaluate the usefulness of expert judgements for inundation, landslide and debris flow susceptibility assessments through a SMCA approach using hydrological, geological and land use factors. The sensitivity of the SMCA model was tested in relation to each perspective and impact on the resulting susceptibility. A least cost path function was used to compare new alternative road lines with the existing ones. This comparison was undertaken to identify the resulting differences in the susceptibility assessments using expert judgements as well as historic incidences of flooding and landslides in order to discuss the usefulness of the model in road planning.

An Expert System-Based Approach to Hospitality Company Diagnosis

OpenAIRE

Balfe, Andrew; O'Connor, Peter; McDonnell, Ciaran

1994-01-01

This paper describes the development of a prototype Expert System-based Analysis and Diagnostic (ESAD) package for the Hotel and Catering Industry. This computerised tool aids the hospitality manager in methodically scrutinising the hotel unit and environment, combining key information with systematic reasoning. The system searches through its extensive knowledge base, investigating complicated relationships. The number of possibilities considered is increased which will broaden the depth and...

The International Accounting Standards Board’s Progress in Promoting Judgement Through Objectives-Oriented Accounting Standards

OpenAIRE

Tanja Lakovic; Jayne Fuglister

2013-01-01

This study analyzes how the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB) promotes professional judgement by issuing objectives-oriented accounting standards and exposure drafts.  We focus on the the role of judgement as outlined in Phase I of the IASB Conceptual Framework (CF), Chapter 1, “Objective of General Purpose Financial Statements” and Chapter 3, “Qualitative Characteristics of Useful Financial Information” (IASB 2010). We discuss how the framework, when viewed through the prism of...

Expert systems and computer based industrial systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dunand, R.

1989-01-01

Framentec is the artificial intelligence subsidiary of FRAMATOME. It is involved in expert-system activities of Shells, developments, methodology and software for maintenance (Maintex) and consulting and methodology. Specific applications in the nuclear field are presented. The first is an expert system to assist in the piping support design prototype, the second is an expert system that assists an ultrasonic testing operator in determining the nature of a welding defect and the third is a welding machine diagnosis advisor. Maintex is a software tool to provide assistance in the repair of complex industrial equipment. (author)

The business judgement rule – approach and application

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Adina Ponta

2015-12-01

Full Text Available The business judgment rule represents a central doctrine of corporate governance, due to its major implications on corporate directors' liability and to its infl uence on the relationship between shareholders and the board of directors. The interpretation of the Rule as a behavioral standard or as an „abstention doctrine” can determinatively influence the liability proceedings against directors who acted in consideration of their fiduciary duties. This paper aims at analyzing the national legal provisions of the Business Judgement Rule and the compatibility of the legal provisions with the established interpretations of the Rule that can be found in the foreign literature. Absent a case law that clarifies de approaches of the Business Judgement Rule by the national courts, the research analyzes the traditional Common Law approaches of the Rule and the obstacles which hinder a faithful transfer of the Rule in Romania. The objective of these identifications is to draw de lege ferenda proposals for an efficient application of the legal provisions in the future. Considering that this Rule is the natural consequence of trust and of the powers granted to corporate directors, the conclusions of the research suggest solutions for the stabilization of the continuous tension of the supreme values of the corporate world: authority and liability.

Developing a Web-Based Advisory Expert System for Implementing Traffic Calming Strategies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Amir Falamarzi

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Lack of traffic safety has become a serious issue in residential areas. In this paper, a web-based advisory expert system for the purpose of applying traffic calming strategies on residential streets is described because there currently lacks a structured framework for the implementation of such strategies. Developing an expert system can assist and advise engineers for dealing with traffic safety problems. This expert system is developed to fill the gap between the traffic safety experts and people who seek to employ traffic calming strategies including decision makers, engineers, and students. In order to build the expert system, examining sources related to traffic calming studies as well as interviewing with domain experts have been carried out. The system includes above 150 rules and 200 images for different types of measures. The system has three main functions including classifying traffic calming measures, prioritizing traffic calming strategies, and presenting solutions for different traffic safety problems. Verifying, validating processes, and comparing the system with similar works have shown that the system is consistent and acceptable for practical uses. Finally, some recommendations for improving the system are presented.

Frontal brain deactivation during a non-verbal cognitive judgement bias test in sheep.

Science.gov (United States)

Guldimann, Kathrin; Vögeli, Sabine; Wolf, Martin; Wechsler, Beat; Gygax, Lorenz

2015-02-01

Animal welfare concerns have raised an interest in animal affective states. These states also play an important role in the proximate control of behaviour. Due to their potential to modulate short-term emotional reactions, one specific focus is on long-term affective states, that is, mood. These states can be assessed by using non-verbal cognitive judgement bias paradigms. Here, we conducted a spatial variant of such a test on 24 focal animals that were kept under either unpredictable, stimulus-poor or predictable, stimulus-rich housing conditions to induce differential mood states. Based on functional near-infrared spectroscopy, we measured haemodynamic frontal brain reactions during 10 s in which the sheep could observe the configuration of the cognitive judgement bias trial before indicating their assessment based on the go/no-go reaction. We used (generalised) mixed-effects models to evaluate the data. Sheep from the unpredictable, stimulus-poor housing conditions took longer and were less likely to reach the learning criterion and reacted slightly more optimistically in the cognitive judgement bias test than sheep from the predictable, stimulus-rich housing conditions. A frontal cortical increase in deoxy-haemoglobin [HHb] and a decrease in oxy-haemoglobin [O2Hb] were observed during the visual assessment of the test situation by the sheep, indicating a frontal cortical brain deactivation. This deactivation was more pronounced with the negativity of the test situation, which was reflected by the provenance of the sheep from the unpredictable, stimulus-poor housing conditions, the proximity of the cue to the negatively reinforced cue location, or the absence of a go reaction in the trial. It seems that (1) sheep from the unpredictable, stimulus-poor in comparison to sheep from the predictable, stimulus-rich housing conditions dealt less easily with the test conditions rich in stimuli, that (2) long-term housing conditions seemingly did not influence mood

A Longitudinal Study of Accounting Students' Ethical Judgement Making Ability

Science.gov (United States)

Mohamed Saat, Maisarah; Porter, Stacey; Woodbine, Gordon

2012-01-01

This paper reports the effect of a moral education programme on the ethical judgement making ability of university students. The programme comprises two forms of intervention: a dedicated ethics course and subsequent practical training. A total of 113 accounting students from six Malaysian universities participated in a longitudinal study…

Online-Expert: An Expert System for Online Database Selection.

Science.gov (United States)

Zahir, Sajjad; Chang, Chew Lik

1992-01-01

Describes the design and development of a prototype expert system called ONLINE-EXPERT that helps users select online databases and vendors that meet users' needs. Search strategies are discussed; knowledge acquisition and knowledge bases are described; and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), a decision analysis technique that ranks databases,…

Expert music performance: cognitive, neural, and developmental bases.

Science.gov (United States)

Brown, Rachel M; Zatorre, Robert J; Penhune, Virginia B

2015-01-01

In this chapter, we explore what happens in the brain of an expert musician during performance. Understanding expert music performance is interesting to cognitive neuroscientists not only because it tests the limits of human memory and movement, but also because studying expert musicianship can help us understand skilled human behavior in general. In this chapter, we outline important facets of our current understanding of the cognitive and neural basis for music performance, and developmental factors that may underlie musical ability. We address three main questions. (1) What is expert performance? (2) How do musicians achieve expert-level performance? (3) How does expert performance come about? We address the first question by describing musicians' ability to remember, plan, execute, and monitor their performances in order to perform music accurately and expressively. We address the second question by reviewing evidence for possible cognitive and neural mechanisms that may underlie or contribute to expert music performance, including the integration of sound and movement, feedforward and feedback motor control processes, expectancy, and imagery. We further discuss how neural circuits in auditory, motor, parietal, subcortical, and frontal cortex all contribute to different facets of musical expertise. Finally, we address the third question by reviewing evidence for the heritability of musical expertise and for how expertise develops through training and practice. We end by discussing outlooks for future work. © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Integrating clinicians, knowledge and data: expert-based cooperative analysis in healthcare decision support.

Science.gov (United States)

Gibert, Karina; García-Alonso, Carlos; Salvador-Carulla, Luis

2010-09-30

Decision support in health systems is a highly difficult task, due to the inherent complexity of the process and structures involved. This paper introduces a new hybrid methodology Expert-based Cooperative Analysis (EbCA), which incorporates explicit prior expert knowledge in data analysis methods, and elicits implicit or tacit expert knowledge (IK) to improve decision support in healthcare systems. EbCA has been applied to two different case studies, showing its usability and versatility: 1) Bench-marking of small mental health areas based on technical efficiency estimated by EbCA-Data Envelopment Analysis (EbCA-DEA), and 2) Case-mix of schizophrenia based on functional dependency using Clustering Based on Rules (ClBR). In both cases comparisons towards classical procedures using qualitative explicit prior knowledge were made. Bayesian predictive validity measures were used for comparison with expert panels results. Overall agreement was tested by Intraclass Correlation Coefficient in case "1" and kappa in both cases. EbCA is a new methodology composed by 6 steps:. 1) Data collection and data preparation; 2) acquisition of "Prior Expert Knowledge" (PEK) and design of the "Prior Knowledge Base" (PKB); 3) PKB-guided analysis; 4) support-interpretation tools to evaluate results and detect inconsistencies (here Implicit Knowledg -IK- might be elicited); 5) incorporation of elicited IK in PKB and repeat till a satisfactory solution; 6) post-processing results for decision support. EbCA has been useful for incorporating PEK in two different analysis methods (DEA and Clustering), applied respectively to assess technical efficiency of small mental health areas and for case-mix of schizophrenia based on functional dependency. Differences in results obtained with classical approaches were mainly related to the IK which could be elicited by using EbCA and had major implications for the decision making in both cases. This paper presents EbCA and shows the convenience of

Integrating clinicians, knowledge and data: expert-based cooperative analysis in healthcare decision support

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

García-Alonso Carlos

2010-09-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Decision support in health systems is a highly difficult task, due to the inherent complexity of the process and structures involved. Method This paper introduces a new hybrid methodology Expert-based Cooperative Analysis (EbCA, which incorporates explicit prior expert knowledge in data analysis methods, and elicits implicit or tacit expert knowledge (IK to improve decision support in healthcare systems. EbCA has been applied to two different case studies, showing its usability and versatility: 1 Bench-marking of small mental health areas based on technical efficiency estimated by EbCA-Data Envelopment Analysis (EbCA-DEA, and 2 Case-mix of schizophrenia based on functional dependency using Clustering Based on Rules (ClBR. In both cases comparisons towards classical procedures using qualitative explicit prior knowledge were made. Bayesian predictive validity measures were used for comparison with expert panels results. Overall agreement was tested by Intraclass Correlation Coefficient in case "1" and kappa in both cases. Results EbCA is a new methodology composed by 6 steps:. 1 Data collection and data preparation; 2 acquisition of "Prior Expert Knowledge" (PEK and design of the "Prior Knowledge Base" (PKB; 3 PKB-guided analysis; 4 support-interpretation tools to evaluate results and detect inconsistencies (here Implicit Knowledg -IK- might be elicited; 5 incorporation of elicited IK in PKB and repeat till a satisfactory solution; 6 post-processing results for decision support. EbCA has been useful for incorporating PEK in two different analysis methods (DEA and Clustering, applied respectively to assess technical efficiency of small mental health areas and for case-mix of schizophrenia based on functional dependency. Differences in results obtained with classical approaches were mainly related to the IK which could be elicited by using EbCA and had major implications for the decision making in both cases. Discussion This

Expert ease

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1984-04-01

Expert-ease allows the most inexperienced of computer users to build an expert system in a matter of hours. It is nothing more or less than a computer based problem-solving system. It allows the expert to preserve his or her knowledge in the form of rules, which can be applied to problems put to the system by the non-expert. The crucial piece of software at the heart of Expert-Ease extracts rules from data, and is called the analogue concept learning system. It was developed by Intelligent Terminals Ltd. and supplied to Export Software International to be incorporated into a commercially attractive package for business users. The resulting product runs on the Act Sirius and the IBM PC and compatibles. It is a well conceived and polished product with a popular appeal that should ensure widespread acceptance even at a cost of >1500 plus vat.

Merging expert and empirical data for rare event frequency estimation: Pool homogenisation for empirical Bayes models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Quigley, John; Hardman, Gavin; Bedford, Tim; Walls, Lesley

2011-01-01

Empirical Bayes provides one approach to estimating the frequency of rare events as a weighted average of the frequencies of an event and a pool of events. The pool will draw upon, for example, events with similar precursors. The higher the degree of homogeneity of the pool, then the Empirical Bayes estimator will be more accurate. We propose and evaluate a new method using homogenisation factors under the assumption that events are generated from a Homogeneous Poisson Process. The homogenisation factors are scaling constants, which can be elicited through structured expert judgement and used to align the frequencies of different events, hence homogenising the pool. The estimation error relative to the homogeneity of the pool is examined theoretically indicating that reduced error is associated with larger pool homogeneity. The effects of misspecified expert assessments of the homogenisation factors are examined theoretically and through simulation experiments. Our results show that the proposed Empirical Bayes method using homogenisation factors is robust under different degrees of misspecification.

Expert consensus v. evidence-based approaches in the revision of the DSM.

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Kendler, K S; Solomon, M

2016-08-01

The development of DSM-III through DSM-5 has relied heavily on expert consensus. In this essay, we provide an historical and critical perspective on this process. Over the last 40 years, medicine has struggled to find appropriate methods for summarizing research results and making clinical recommendations. When such recommendations are issued by authorized organizations, they can have widespread influence (i.e. DSM-III and its successors). In the 1970s, expert consensus conferences, led by the NIH, reviewed research about controversial medical issues and successfully disseminated results. However, these consensus conferences struggled with aggregating the complex available evidence. In the 1990s, the rise of evidence-based medicine cast doubt on the reliability of expert consensus. Since then, medicine has increasingly relied on systematic reviews, as developed by the evidence-based medicine movement, and advocated for their early incorporation in expert consensus efforts. With the partial exception of DSM-IV, such systematic evidence-based reviews have not been consistently integrated into the development of the DSMs, leaving their development out of step with the larger medical field. Like the recommendations made for the NIH consensus conferences, we argue that the DSM process should be modified to require systematic evidence-based reviews before Work Groups make their assessments. Our suggestions - which would require leadership and additional resources to set standards for appropriate evidence hierarchies, carry out systematic reviews, and upgrade the group process - should improve the objectivity of the DSM, increase the validity of its results, and improve the reception of any changes in nosology.

Web Based Cattle Disease Expert System Diagnosis with forward Chaining Method

Science.gov (United States)

Zamsuri, Ahmad; Syafitri, Wenni; Sadar, Muhamad

2017-12-01

Cattle is one of the livestock who have high economic potential, whether for livestock, cattle seed, or even for food stock. Everything that comes from Cattle is a treasure for example the Milk, the Meat, and Cattle-hide. The factor that cause Cattles to die is the spread of disease that could crock up the Cattle’s health. So that the Expert system is needed to utilize and analye the Cattle’s disease so it could detect the disease without going to the veterinarian. Forward chaining method is one of the correct method in this expert system wherein began with Symptoms to determine the illness. From this matter, we built a web based expert system application on Cattles disease to ease the disease detection and showing the brief information about the Cattles itself.

How to Use Qualitative Analysis to Support a DSA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Coutts, D.A.

2003-01-01

The use of judgement-based analyses that produces qualitative results can be a very effective method to demonstrate the safety posture of a nuclear facility. Such methodologies are recognized as appropriate through the graded approach established by the 10 CFR 830, Nuclear Safety Management and DOE-STD-3009. To successfully implement judgement-based analysis requires recognition of the uncertainties and biases that may be inherent with this approach. This paper will summarize the common errors that can occur when conducting judgement-based analyses and recommend techniques to improve the reproducibility and accuracy of such qualitative analyses. This paper will examine some of the Apparent and Not-So-Apparent Weaknesses associated with expert judgement and how to minimize these weaknesses. Examples related to the development of Documented Safety Analyses will be presented

Sequential effects in judgements of attractiveness: the influences of face race and sex.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Robin S S Kramer

Full Text Available In perceptual decision-making, a person's response on a given trial is influenced by their response on the immediately preceding trial. This sequential effect was initially demonstrated in psychophysical tasks, but has now been found in more complex, real-world judgements. The similarity of the current and previous stimuli determines the nature of the effect, with more similar items producing assimilation in judgements, while less similarity can cause a contrast effect. Previous research found assimilation in ratings of facial attractiveness, and here, we investigated whether this effect is influenced by the social categories of the faces presented. Over three experiments, participants rated the attractiveness of own- (White and other-race (Chinese faces of both sexes that appeared successively. Through blocking trials by race (Experiment 1, sex (Experiment 2, or both dimensions (Experiment 3, we could examine how sequential judgements were altered by the salience of different social categories in face sequences. For sequences that varied in sex alone, own-race faces showed significantly less opposite-sex assimilation (male and female faces perceived as dissimilar, while other-race faces showed equal assimilation for opposite- and same-sex sequences (male and female faces were not differentiated. For sequences that varied in race alone, categorisation by race resulted in no opposite-race assimilation for either sex of face (White and Chinese faces perceived as dissimilar. For sequences that varied in both race and sex, same-category assimilation was significantly greater than opposite-category. Our results suggest that the race of a face represents a superordinate category relative to sex. These findings demonstrate the importance of social categories when considering sequential judgements of faces, and also highlight a novel approach for investigating how multiple social dimensions interact during decision-making.

Do educational interventions improve nurses' clinical decision making and judgement? A systematic review.

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Thompson, Carl; Stapley, Sally

2011-07-01

Despite the growing popularity of decision making in nursing curricula, the effectiveness of educational interventions to improve nursing judgement and decision making is unknown. We sought to synthesise and summarise the comparative evidence for educational interventions to improve nursing judgements and clinical decisions. A systematic review. Electronic databases: Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), MEDLINE, CINAHL and PsycINFO, Social Sciences Citation Index, OpenSIGLE conference proceedings and hand searching nursing journals. Studies published since 1960, reporting any educational intervention that aimed to improve nurses' clinical judgements or decision making were included. Studies were assessed for relevance and quality. Data extracted included study design; educational setting; the nature of participants; whether the study was concerned with the clinical application of skills or the application of theory; the type of decision targeted by the intervention (e.g. diagnostic reasoning) and whether the evaluation of the intervention focused on efficacy or effectiveness. A narrative approach to study synthesis was used due to heterogeneity in interventions, study samples, outcomes and settings and incomplete reporting of effect sizes. From 5262 initial citations 24 studies were included in the review. A variety of educational approaches were reported. Study quality and content reporting was generally poor. Pedagogical theories were widely used but use of decision theory (with the exception of subjective expected utility theory implicit in decision analysis) was rare. The effectiveness and efficacy of interventions was mixed. Educational interventions to improve nurses' judgements and decisions are complex and the evidence from comparative studies does little to reduce the uncertainty about 'what works'. Nurse educators need to pay attention to decision, as well as pedagogical, theory in the design of interventions. Study design and

An expert systems application to space base data processing

Science.gov (United States)

Babb, Stephen M.

1988-01-01

The advent of space vehicles with their increased data requirements are reflected in the complexity of future telemetry systems. Space based operations with its immense operating costs will shift the burden of data processing and routine analysis from the space station to the Orbital Transfer Vehicle (OTV). A research and development project is described which addresses the real time onboard data processing tasks associated with a space based vehicle, specifically focusing on an implementation of an expert system.

International, Expert-Based, Consensus Statement Regarding the Management of Acute Diverticulitis.

Science.gov (United States)

O'Leary, D Peter; Lynch, Noel; Clancy, Cillian; Winter, Desmond C; Myers, Eddie

2015-09-01

This Delphi study provides consensus related to many aspects of acute diverticulitis and identifies other areas in need of research. To generate an international, expert-based, consensus statement to address controversies in the management of acute diverticulitis. This study was conducted using the Delphi technique from April 3 through October 21, 2014. A survey website was used and a panel of acute diverticulitis experts was formed via the snowball method. The top 5 acute diverticulitis experts in 5 international geographic regions were identified based on their number of publications related to acute diverticulitis. The Delphi study used 3 rounds of questions, after which the consensus statement was collated. A consensus statement related to the management of acute diverticulitis. Twenty items were selected for inclusion in the consensus statement following 3 rounds of questioning. A clear definition of uncomplicated and complicated diverticulitis is provided. In uncomplicated diverticulitis, consensus was reached regarding appropriate laboratory and radiological evaluation of patients as well as nonsurgical, surgical, and follow-up strategies. A number of important topics, including antibiotic treatment, failed to reach consensus. In addition, consensus was reached regarding many nonsurgical and surgical treatment strategies in complicated diverticulitis. Controversy continues internationally regarding the management of acute diverticulitis. This study demonstrates that there is more nonconsensus among experts than consensus regarding most issues, even in the same region. It also provides insight into the status quo regarding the treatment of acute diverticulitis and provides important direction for future research.

Using the Delphi expert consensus method in mental health research.

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Jorm, Anthony F

2015-10-01

The article gives an introductory overview of the use of the Delphi expert consensus method in mental health research. It explains the rationale for using the method, examines the range of uses to which it has been put in mental health research, and describes the stages of carrying out a Delphi study using examples from the literature. To ascertain the range of uses, a systematic search was carried out in PubMed. The article also examines the implications of 'wisdom of crowds' research for how to conduct Delphi studies. The Delphi method is a systematic way of determining expert consensus that is useful for answering questions that are not amenable to experimental and epidemiological methods. The validity of the approach is supported by 'wisdom of crowds' research showing that groups can make good judgements under certain conditions. In mental health research, the Delphi method has been used for making estimations where there is incomplete evidence (e.g. What is the global prevalence of dementia?), making predictions (e.g. What types of interactions with a person who is suicidal will reduce their chance of suicide?), determining collective values (e.g. What areas of research should be given greatest priority?) and defining foundational concepts (e.g. How should we define 'relapse'?). A range of experts have been used in Delphi research, including clinicians, researchers, consumers and caregivers. The Delphi method has a wide range of potential uses in mental health research. © The Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Psychiatrists 2015.

Assessing leadership decision-making styles: psychometric properties of the Leadership Judgement Indicator.

Science.gov (United States)

Faraci, Palmira; Lock, Michael; Wheeler, Robert

2013-01-01

This study aimed to validate the Italian version of the Leadership Judgement Indicator, an unconventional instrument devoted to measurement of leaders' judgments and preferred styles, ie, directive, consultative, consensual, or delegative, when dealing with a range of decision-making scenarios. After forward-translation and back-translation, its psychometric properties were estimated for 299 managers at various levels, who were asked to put themselves in the position of leader and to rate the appropriateness of certain ways of responding to challenge. Differences between several groups of managers, ranked in order of seniority, provided evidence for discriminant validity. Internal consistency was adequate. The findings show that the Italian adaptation of the Leadership Judgement Indicator has promising psychometric qualities, suggesting its suitability for use to improve outcomes in both organizational and selection settings.

Assessing leadership decision-making styles: psychometric properties of the Leadership Judgement Indicator

Science.gov (United States)

Faraci, Palmira; Lock, Michael; Wheeler, Robert

2013-01-01

This study aimed to validate the Italian version of the Leadership Judgement Indicator, an unconventional instrument devoted to measurement of leaders’ judgments and preferred styles, ie, directive, consultative, consensual, or delegative, when dealing with a range of decision-making scenarios. After forward-translation and back-translation, its psychometric properties were estimated for 299 managers at various levels, who were asked to put themselves in the position of leader and to rate the appropriateness of certain ways of responding to challenge. Differences between several groups of managers, ranked in order of seniority, provided evidence for discriminant validity. Internal consistency was adequate. The findings show that the Italian adaptation of the Leadership Judgement Indicator has promising psychometric qualities, suggesting its suitability for use to improve outcomes in both organizational and selection settings. PMID:24204179

Development of a tool for knowledge base verification of expert system based on Design/CPN

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Jong Hyun

1998-02-01

Verification is a necessary work in developing a reliable expert system. Verification is a process aimed at demonstrating whether a system meets it's specified requirements. As expert systems are used in various applications, the knowledge base verification of systems takes an important position. The conventional Petri net approach that has been studied recently in order to verify the knowledge base is found that it is inadequate to verify the knowledge base of large and complex system, such as alarm processing system of nuclear power plant. Thus, we propose an improved method that models the knowledge base as enhanced colored Petri net. In this study, we analyze the reachability and the error characteristics of the knowledge base. Generally, verification process requires computational support by automated tools. For this reason, this study developed a tool for knowledge base verification based on Design/CPN, which is a tool for editing, modeling, and simulating Colored Petri net. This tool uses Enhanced Colored Petri net as a modeling method. By applying this tool to the knowledge base of nuclear power plant, it is noticed that it can successfully check most of the anomalies that can occur in a knowledge base

Judgements about Knowledge: Searching for Factors that Influence Their Validity

Science.gov (United States)

Mengelkamp, Christoph; Bannert, Maria

2009-01-01

Introduction: Research in the field of metacomprehension often uses the accuracy of judgements of own knowledge as a measure of monitoring which is a central component of metacognition. One aim of this study is to investigate if the accuracy above chance usually found in studies using traditional texts can be replicated with hypermedia. More…

Expert - Non-expert differences in visual behaviour during alpine slalom skiing.

Science.gov (United States)

Decroix, Marjolein; Wazir, Mohd Rozilee Wazir Norjali; Zeuwts, Linus; Deconinck, Frederik F J A; Lenoir, Matthieu; Vansteenkiste, Pieter

2017-10-01

The aim of this study was to investigate visual behaviour of expert and non-expert ski athletes during an alpine slalom. Fourteen non-experts and five expert slalom skiers completed an alpine slalom course in an indoor ski slope while wearing a head-mounted eye tracking device. Experts completed the slalom clearly faster than non-experts, but no significant difference was found in timing and position of the turn initiation. Although both groups already looked at future obstacles approximately 0,5s before passing the upcoming pole, the higher speed of experts implied that they shifted gaze spatially earlier in the bend than non-experts. Furthermore, experts focussed more on the second next pole while non-expert slalom skiers looked more to the snow surface immediately in front of their body. No difference was found in the fixation frequency, average fixation duration, and quiet eye duration between both groups. These results suggest that experts focus on the timing of their actions while non-experts still need to pay attention to the execution of these actions. These results also might suggest that ski trainers should instruct non-experts and experts to focus on the next pole and, shift their gaze to the second next pole shortly before reaching it. Based on the current study it seems unadvisable to instruct slalom skiers to look several poles ahead during the actual slalom. However, future research should test if these results still hold on a real outdoor slope, including multiple vertical gates. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Knowledge base to develop expert system prototype for predicting groundwater pollution from nitrogen fertilizer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ta-oun, M.; Daud, M.; Bardaie, M.Z.; Jusop, S.

1999-01-01

An expert system for prediction the impact of nitrogen fertilizer on groundwater pollution potential was established by using CLIPS (NASA's Jonson Space Centre). The knowledge base could be extracted from FAO reports, ministry of agriculture and rural development Malaysia report, established literature and domain expert for preparing an expert system skeleton. An expert system was used to correlate the availability of nitrogen fertilizer with the vulnerability of groundwater to pollution in Peninsula Malaysia and to identify potential groundwater quality problems. An n-fertilizer groundwater pollution potential index produced b using the vulnerability of groundwater to pollution yields a more accurate screening toll for identifying potential pollution problems than by considering vulnerability alone. An expert system can predict the groundwater pollution potential under several conditions of agricultural activities and existing environments. (authors)

Effects of caffeine on prospective duration judgements of various intervals depend on task difficulty.

Science.gov (United States)

Gruber, Ronald P; Block, Richard A

2005-06-01

The effects of caffeine on prospective duration judgements were investigated in two double-blind placebo-controlled experiments. After taking either 200 mg of caffeine or a placebo, participants performed a task that demanded considerable attention, driving a car in a simulator (Experiment 1) or a task that demanded relatively little attention, watching a videotaped scene from a driven car (Experiment 2). Each participant made duration judgements of three target intervals: 15 s, 60 s and 300 s. Actively driving participants in the caffeine condition judged it as shorter than did those in the placebo condition. Caffeine had no effect on duration judgements following passive viewing. When people must perform a relatively difficult task, caffeine causes participants to allocate relatively more of their attentional resources to the task and relatively less to duration timing. Although caffeine may increase the pacemaker rate of an internal clock (via dopamine D(1) agonism), when external events are attention-demanding, caffeine mainly influences the relative allocation of attention to external events or to time (via dopamine D(2) agonism) in cerebral areas subserving the executive control of attention. Copyright 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The reliability of structural systems operating at high temperature: Replacing engineering judgement with operational experience

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chevalier, M.J.; Smith, D.J.; Dean, D.W.

2012-01-01

Deterministic assessments are used to assess the integrity of structural systems operating at high temperature by providing a lower bound lifetime prediction, requiring considerable engineering judgement. However such a result may not satisfy the structural integrity assessment purpose if the results are overly conservative or conversely plant observations (such as failures) could undermine the assessment result if observed before the lower bound lifetime. This paper develops a reliability methodology for high temperature assessments and illustrates the impact and importance of managing the uncertainties within such an analysis. This is done by separating uncertainties into three classifications; aleatory uncertainty, quantifiable epistemic uncertainty and unquantifiable epistemic uncertainty. The result is a reliability model that can predict the behaviour of a structural system based upon plant observations, including failure and survival data. This can be used to reduce the over reliance upon engineering judgement which is prevalent in deterministic assessments. Highlights: ► Deterministic assessments are shown to be heavily reliant upon engineering judgment. ► Based upon the R5 procedure, a reliability model for a structural system is developed. ► Variables must be classified as either aleatory or epistemic to model their impact on reliability. ► Operation experience is then used to reduce reliance upon engineering judgment. ► This results in a model which can predict system behaviour and learn from operational experience.

The Role of Age in Life Satisfaction Judgements among Educated ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

This study investigated the role of age in life satisfaction judgements among educated adults in Ado – Ekiti. Employing a sample of 544 participants of educated adults in the age cohorts of 20 – 39 years (276), 40 – 59 years (179), and 60+ years (89), selected through a multi-stage sampling, and administering on them Life ...

39 VetoMed : un système expert à base d'icônes pour la médecine ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

PR BOKO

Mots-clés: système expert, générateur de systèmes expert, base de connaissances, médecine traditionnelle vétérinaire, plantes médicinales, interface iconique, tradipraticien. Abstract. VetoMed : An icon-based expert system for Traditional Veterinary Medicine. In this paper we propose an expert system in which, icons are ...

Expert Systems for the Analytical Laboratory.

Science.gov (United States)

de Monchy, Allan R.; And Others

1988-01-01

Discusses two computer problem solving programs: rule-based expert systems and decision analysis expert systems. Explores the application of expert systems to automated chemical analyses. Presents six factors to consider before using expert systems. (MVL)

Are men better than women at acoustic size judgements?

Science.gov (United States)

Charlton, Benjamin D; Taylor, Anna M; Reby, David

2013-08-23

Formants are important phonetic elements of human speech that are also used by humans and non-human mammals to assess the body size of potential mates and rivals. As a consequence, it has been suggested that formant perception, which is crucial for speech perception, may have evolved through sexual selection. Somewhat surprisingly, though, no previous studies have examined whether sexes differ in their ability to use formants for size evaluation. Here, we investigated whether men and women differ in their ability to use the formant frequency spacing of synthetic vocal stimuli to make auditory size judgements over a wide range of fundamental frequencies (the main determinant of vocal pitch). Our results reveal that men are significantly better than women at comparing the apparent size of stimuli, and that lower pitch improves the ability of both men and women to perform these acoustic size judgements. These findings constitute the first demonstration of a sex difference in formant perception, and lend support to the idea that acoustic size normalization, a crucial prerequisite for speech perception, may have been sexually selected through male competition. We also provide the first evidence that vocalizations with relatively low pitch improve the perception of size-related formant information.

Correlations Between Clinical Judgement and Learning Style Preferences of Nursing Students in the Simulation Room.

Science.gov (United States)

Hallin, Karin; Haggstrom, Marie; Backstrom, Britt; Kristiansen, Lisbeth Porskrog

2015-09-28

Health care educators account for variables affecting patient safety and are responsible for developing the highly complex process of education planning. Clinical judgement is a multidimensional process, which may be affected by learning styles. The aim was to explore three specific hypotheses to test correlations between nursing students' team achievements in clinical judgement and emotional, sociological and physiological learning style preferences. A descriptive cross-sectional study was conducted with Swedish university nursing students in 2012-2013. Convenience sampling was used with 60 teams with 173 nursing students in the final semester of a three-year Bachelor of Science in nursing programme. Data collection included questionnaires of personal characteristics, learning style preferences, determined by the Dunn and Dunn Productivity Environmental Preference Survey, and videotaped complex nursing simulation scenarios. Comparison with Lasater Clinical Judgement Rubric and Non-parametric analyses were performed. Three significant correlations were found between the team achievements and the students' learning style preferences: significant negative correlation with 'Structure' and 'Kinesthetic' at the individual level, and positive correlation with the 'Tactile' variable. No significant correlations with students' 'Motivation', 'Persistence', 'Wish to learn alone' and 'Wish for an authoritative person present' were seen. There were multiple complex interactions between the tested learning style preferences and the team achievements of clinical judgement in the simulation room, which provides important information for the becoming nurses. Several factors may have influenced the results that should be acknowledged when designing further research. We suggest conducting mixed methods to determine further relationships between team achievements, learning style preferences, cognitive learning outcomes and group processes.

Some comments on the substituted judgement standard.

Science.gov (United States)

Egonsson, Dan

2010-02-01

On a traditional interpretation of the substituted judgement standard (SJS) a person who makes treatment decisions on behalf of a non-competent patient (e.g. concerning euthanasia) ought to decide as the patient would have decided had she been competent. I propose an alternative interpretation of SJS in which the surrogate is required to infer what the patient actually thought about these end-of-life decisions. In clarifying SJS it is also important to differentiate the patient's consent and preference. If SJS is part of an autonomy ideal of the sort found in Kantian ethics, consent seems more important than preference. From a utilitarian perspective a preference-based reading of SJS seems natural. I argue that the justification of SJS within a utilitarian framework will boil down to the question whether a non-competent patient can be said to have any surviving preferences. If we give a virtue-ethical justification of SJS the relative importance of consent and preferences depends on which virtue one stresses--respect or care. I argue that SJS might be an independent normative method for extending the patient's autonomy, both from a Kantian and a virtue ethical perspective.

The Use of Web Based Expert System Application for Identification and Intervention of Children with Special Needs in Inclusive School

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dian Atnantomi Wiliyanto

2017-11-01

Full Text Available This research is conducted to determine the effectiveness of web based expert system application for identification and intervention of children with special needs in inclusive school. 40 teachers of inclusive school in Surakarta participated in this research. The result showed that: (1 web based expert system application was suitable with the needs of teachers/officers, had 50% (excellence criteria, (2 web based expert system application was worthwhile for identification of children with special needs, had 50% (excellence criteria, (3 web based expert system application was easy to use, had 52.5% (good criteria, and (4 web based expert system application had result accuracy in making decision, had 52.5% (good criteria. It shows that the use of web based expert system application is effective to be used by teachers in inclusive school in conducting identification and intervention with percentage on average was more than 50%.

Belief-rule-based expert systems for evaluation of e-government

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hossain, Mohammad Shahadat; Zander, Pär-Ola Mikael; Kamal, Md Sarwar

2015-01-01

, known as the Belief Rule Based Expert System (BRBES) and implemented in the local e-government of Bangladesh. The results have been compared with a recently developed method of evaluating e-government, and it is demonstrated that the results of the BRBES are more accurate and reliable. The BRBES can...

Developing a PC-based expert system for fault analysis of reactor instruments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Diwakar, M.P.; Rathod, N.C.; Bairi, B.R.; Darbhe, M.D.; Joglekar, S.S.

1989-01-01

This paper describes the development of an expert system for fault analysis of electronic instruments in the CIRUS nuclear reactor. The system was developed in Prolog on an IBM PC-XT compatible computer. A 'model-based' approach (Button et al, 1986) was adopted combining 'frames' and 'rules' to provide flexible control over the inferencing mechanisms. Frames represent the domain-objects as well as the inter-object relationships. They include 'demons' or 'active values' for triggering actions. Rules, along with frames, are used for fault analysis. The rules can be activated either in a data-driven or a goal-driven manner. The use of frames makes rule management easier. It is felt that developing in-house shell proved advantageous, compared to using commercially available shells. Choosing the model-based approach was efficient compared to a production system architecture. Therefore, the use of hybrid representations for diagnostic applications is advocated. Based on the experience, some general recommendations for developing such systems are presented. The expert system helps novice operators to understand the process of diagnosis and achieve a significant required level of competence. The system may not achieve the required level of proficiency by itself, but it can be used to train operators to become experts. (author). 12 refs

A new Expert Finding model based on Term Correlation Matrix

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ehsan Pornour

2015-09-01

Full Text Available Due to the enormous volume of unstructured information available on the Web and inside organization, finding an answer to the knowledge need in a short time is difficult. For this reason, beside Search Engines which don’t consider users individual characteristics, Recommender systems were created which use user’s previous activities and other individual characteristics to help users find needed knowledge. Recommender systems usage is increasing every day. Expert finder systems also by introducing expert people instead of recommending information to users have provided this facility for users to ask their questions form experts. Having relation with experts not only causes information transition, but also with transferring experiences and inception causes knowledge transition. In this paper we used university professors academic resume as expert people profile and then proposed a new expert finding model that recommends experts to users query. We used Term Correlation Matrix, Vector Space Model and PageRank algorithm and proposed a new hybrid model which outperforms conventional methods. This model can be used in internet environment, organizations and universities that experts have resume dataset.

A rule-based expert system for generating control displays at the Advanced Photon Source

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Coulter, K.J.

1993-01-01

The integration of a rule-based expert system for generating screen displays for controlling and monitoring instrumentation under the Experimental Physics and Industrial Control System (EPICS) is presented. The expert system is implemented using CLIPS, an expert system shell from the Software Technology Branch at Lyndon B. Johnson Space Center. The user selects the hardware input and output to be displayed and the expert system constructs a graphical control screen appropriate for the data. Such a system provides a method for implementing a common look and feel for displays created by several different users and reduces the amount of time required to create displays for new hardware configurations. Users are able to modify the displays as needed using the EPICS display editor tool

A rule-based expert system for generating control displays at the advanced photon source

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Coulter, K.J.

1994-01-01

The integration of a rule-based expert system for generating screen displays for controlling and monitoring instrumentation under the Experimental Physics and Industrial Control System (EPICS) is presented. The expert system is implemented using CLIPS, an expert system shell from the Software Technology Branch at Lyndon B. Johnson Space Center. The user selects the hardware input and output to be displayed and the expert system constructs a graphical control screen appropriate for the data. Such a system provides a method for implementing a common look and feel for displays created by several different users and reduces the amount of time required to create displays for new hardware configurations. Users are able to modify the displays as needed using the EPICS display editor tool. ((orig.))

Moral Development in Business Education--Social Conditions Influencing Moral Judgement Competence

Science.gov (United States)

Bienengräber, Thomas

2014-01-01

Workplace relations like any social relation first and foremost have a moral dimension. Thus, if vocational education sees one of its major goals in helping apprentices to deal with moral issues, one of the core objectives in vocational education is the support of the apprentice's development of moral judgement competence. Since Lawrence Kohlberg…

PSG-EXPERT. An expert system for the diagnosis of sleep disorders.

Science.gov (United States)

Fred, A; Filipe, J; Partinen, M; Paiva, T

2000-01-01

This paper describes PSG-EXPERT, an expert system in the domain of sleep disorders exploring polysomnographic data. The developed software tool is addressed from two points of view: (1)--as an integrated environment for the development of diagnosis-oriented expert systems; (2)--as an auxiliary diagnosis tool in the particular domain of sleep disorders. Developed over a Windows platform, this software tool extends one of the most popular shells--CLIPS (C Language Integrated Production System) with the following features: backward chaining engine; graph-based explanation facilities; knowledge editor including a fuzzy fact editor and a rules editor, with facts-rules integrity checking; belief revision mechanism; built-in case generator and validation module. It therefore provides graphical support for knowledge acquisition, edition, explanation and validation. From an application domain point of view, PSG-Expert is an auxiliary diagnosis system for sleep disorders based on polysomnographic data, that aims at assisting the medical expert in his diagnosis task by providing automatic analysis of polysomnographic data, summarising the results of this analysis in terms of a report of major findings and possible diagnosis consistent with the polysomnographic data. Sleep disorders classification follows the International Classification of Sleep Disorders. Major features of the system include: browsing on patients data records; structured navigation on Sleep Disorders descriptions according to ASDA definitions; internet links to related pages; diagnosis consistent with polysomnographic data; graphical user-interface including graph-based explanatory facilities; uncertainty modelling and belief revision; production of reports; connection to remote databases.

Distributed Web-Based Expert System for Launch Operations

Science.gov (United States)

Bardina, Jorge E.; Thirumalainambi, Rajkumar

2005-01-01

The simulation and modeling of launch operations is based on a representation of the organization of the operations suitable to experiment of the physical, procedural, software, hardware and psychological aspects of space flight operations. The virtual test bed consists of a weather expert system to advice on the effect of weather to the launch operations. It also simulates toxic gas dispersion model, and the risk impact on human health. Since all modeling and simulation is based on the internet, it could reduce the cost of operations of launch and range safety by conducting extensive research before a particular launch. Each model has an independent decision making module to derive the best decision for launch.

Use of a FORTH-based PROLOG for real-time expert systems. 1: Spacelab life sciences experiment application

Science.gov (United States)

Paloski, William H.; Odette, Louis L.; Krever, Alfred J.; West, Allison K.

1987-01-01

A real-time expert system is being developed to serve as the astronaut interface for a series of Spacelab vestibular experiments. This expert system is written in a version of Prolog that is itself written in Forth. The Prolog contains a predicate that can be used to execute Forth definitions; thus, the Forth becomes an embedded real-time operating system within the Prolog programming environment. The expert system consists of a data base containing detailed operational instructions for each experiment, a rule base containing Prolog clauses used to determine the next step in an experiment sequence, and a procedure base containing Prolog goals formed from real-time routines coded in Forth. In this paper, we demonstrate and describe the techniques and considerations used to develop this real-time expert system, and we conclude that Forth-based Prolog provides a viable implementation vehicle for this and similar applications.

From prejudice to reasonable judgement: integrating (moral) value discussions in university courses

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Aalberts, J.M.C.; Koster, E.; Boschhuizen, R.

2012-01-01

The central question addressed in this article is how (moral) values discussions in university courses can be integrated in a systematic way. Discussion of (moral) values is fundamental to the Dublin descriptor about judgement formation in use in European universities. To integrate this descriptor

Correlations between Clinical Judgement and Learning Style Preferences of Nursing Students in the Simulation Room

Science.gov (United States)

Hallin, Karin; Häggström, Marie; Bäckström, Britt; Kristiansen, Lisbeth Porskrog

2016-01-01

Background: Health care educators account for variables affecting patient safety and are responsible for developing the highly complex process of education planning. Clinical judgement is a multidimensional process, which may be affected by learning styles. The aim was to explore three specific hypotheses to test correlations between nursing students’ team achievements in clinical judgement and emotional, sociological and physiological learning style preferences. Methods: A descriptive cross-sectional study was conducted with Swedish university nursing students in 2012-2013. Convenience sampling was used with 60 teams with 173 nursing students in the final semester of a three-year Bachelor of Science in nursing programme. Data collection included questionnaires of personal characteristics, learning style preferences, determined by the Dunn and Dunn Productivity Environmental Preference Survey, and videotaped complex nursing simulation scenarios. Comparison with Lasater Clinical Judgement Rubric and Non-parametric analyses were performed. Results: Three significant correlations were found between the team achievements and the students’ learning style preferences: significant negative correlation with ‘Structure’ and ‘Kinesthetic’ at the individual level, and positive correlation with the ‘Tactile’ variable. No significant correlations with students’ ‘Motivation’, ‘Persistence’, ‘Wish to learn alone’ and ‘Wish for an authoritative person present’ were seen. Discussion and Conclusion: There were multiple complex interactions between the tested learning style preferences and the team achievements of clinical judgement in the simulation room, which provides important information for the becoming nurses. Several factors may have influenced the results that should be acknowledged when designing further research. We suggest conducting mixed methods to determine further relationships between team achievements, learning style preferences

The Relation of Birth Order, Social Class, and Need Achievement to Independent Judgement

Science.gov (United States)

Rhine, W. Ray

1974-01-01

This article reports an investigation in which the brith order, social class, and level of achievement arousal are the variables considered when fifth and sixth-grade girls make independent judgements in performing a set task. (JH)

Comparing the creativity of children's design solutions based on expert assessment

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Thang, B.; Sluis - Thiescheffer, R.J.W.; Bekker, M.M.; Eggen, J.H.; Vermeeren, A.P.O.S.; Ridder, de H.

2008-01-01

LOBBI Netherlands Consortium Subscribe (Full Service) Register (Limited Service, Free) Login Search: The ACM Digital Library The Guide Feedback Comparing the creativity of children's design solutions based on expert assessment Full text Pdf (3.04 MB) Source Interaction Design and Children archive

Effectiveness of User- and Expert-Driven Web-based Hypertension Programs: an RCT.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Sam; Brooks, Dina; Thomas, Scott G; Eysenbach, Gunther; Nolan, Robert P

2018-04-01

The effectiveness of self-guided Internet-based lifestyle counseling (e-counseling) varies, depending on treatment protocol. Two dominant procedures in e-counseling are expert- and user-driven. The influence of these procedures on hypertension management remains unclear. The objective was to assess whether blood pressure improved with expert-driven or user-driven e-counseling over control intervention in patients with hypertension over a 4-month period. This study used a three-parallel group, double-blind randomized controlled design. In Toronto, Canada, 128 participants (aged 35-74 years) with hypertension were recruited. Participants were recruited using online and poster advertisements. Data collection took place between June 2012 and June 2014. Data were analyzed from October 2014 to December 2016. Controls received a weekly e-mail newsletter regarding hypertension management. The expert-driven group was prescribed a weekly exercise and diet plan (e.g., increase 1,000 steps/day this week). The user-driven group received weekly e-mail, which allowed participants to choose their intervention goals (e.g., [1] feel more confident to change my lifestyle, or [2] self-help tips for exercise or a heart healthy diet). Primary outcome was systolic blood pressure measured at baseline and 4-month follow-up. Secondary outcomes included cholesterol, 10-year Framingham cardiovascular risk, daily steps, and dietary habits. Expert-driven groups showed a greater systolic blood pressure decrease than controls at follow-up (expert-driven versus control: -7.5 mmHg, 95% CI= -12.5, -2.6, p=0.01). Systolic blood pressure reduction did not significantly differ between user- and expert-driven. Expert-driven compared with controls also showed a significant improvement in pulse pressure, cholesterol, and Framingham risk score. The expert-driven intervention was significantly more effective than both user-driven and control groups in increasing daily steps and fruit intake. It may be

Knowledge acquisition from natural language for expert systems based on classification problem-solving methods

Science.gov (United States)

Gomez, Fernando

1989-01-01

It is shown how certain kinds of domain independent expert systems based on classification problem-solving methods can be constructed directly from natural language descriptions by a human expert. The expert knowledge is not translated into production rules. Rather, it is mapped into conceptual structures which are integrated into long-term memory (LTM). The resulting system is one in which problem-solving, retrieval and memory organization are integrated processes. In other words, the same algorithm and knowledge representation structures are shared by these processes. As a result of this, the system can answer questions, solve problems or reorganize LTM.

Real time expert systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Asami, Tohru; Hashimoto, Kazuo; Yamamoto, Seiichi

1992-01-01

Recently, aiming at the application to the plant control for nuclear reactors and traffic and communication control, the research and the practical use of the expert system suitable to real time processing have become conspicuous. In this report, the condition for the required function to control the object that dynamically changes within a limited time is presented, and the technical difference between the real time expert system developed so as to satisfy it and the expert system of conventional type is explained with the actual examples and from theoretical aspect. The expert system of conventional type has the technical base in the problem-solving equipment originating in STRIPS. The real time expert system is applied to the fields accompanied by surveillance and control, to which conventional expert system is hard to be applied. The requirement for the real time expert system, the example of the real time expert system, and as the techniques of realizing real time processing, the realization of interruption processing, dispersion processing, and the mechanism of maintaining the consistency of knowledge are explained. (K.I.)

Expert Systems: What Is an Expert System?

Science.gov (United States)

Duval, Beverly K.; Main, Linda

1994-01-01

Describes expert systems and discusses their use in libraries. Highlights include parts of an expert system; expert system shells; an example of how to build an expert system; a bibliography of 34 sources of information on expert systems in libraries; and a list of 10 expert system shells used in libraries. (Contains five references.) (LRW)

Expert Systems: An Overview for Teacher-Librarians.

Science.gov (United States)

Orwig, Gary; Barron, Ann

1992-01-01

Provides an overview of expert systems for teacher librarians. Highlights include artificial intelligence and expert systems; the development of the MYCIN medical expert system; rule-based expert systems; the use of expert system shells to develop a specific system; and how to select an appropriate application for an expert system. (11 references)…

Expert-systems and computer-based industrial systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Terrien, J.F.

1987-01-01

Framatome makes wide use of expert systems, computer-assisted engineering, production management and personnel training. It has set up separate business units and subsidiaries and also participates in other companies which have the relevant expertise. Five examples of the products and services available in these are discussed. These are in the field of applied artificial intelligence and expert-systems, in integrated computer-aid design and engineering, structural analysis, computer-related products and services and document management systems. The structure of the companies involved and the work they are doing is discussed. (UK)

Contextual Factors for Finding Similar Experts

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hofmann, Katja; Balog, Krisztian; Bogers, Toine

2010-01-01

-seeking models, are rarely taken into account. In this article, we extend content-based expert-finding approaches with contextual factors that have been found to influence human expert finding. We focus on a task of science communicators in a knowledge-intensive environment, the task of finding similar experts......, given an example expert. Our approach combines expertise-seeking and retrieval research. First, we conduct a user study to identify contextual factors that may play a role in the studied task and environment. Then, we design expert retrieval models to capture these factors. We combine these with content......-based retrieval models and evaluate them in a retrieval experiment. Our main finding is that while content-based features are the most important, human participants also take contextual factors into account, such as media experience and organizational structure. We develop two principled ways of modeling...

Expert system characteristics and potential applications in safeguards

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chapman, L.D.

1986-01-01

The general growth of expert, knowledge-based (KB) or rule based systems will significantly increase in the next three to five years. Improvements in computer hardware (speed, reduced size, power) and software (rule based, data based, user interfaces) in recent years are providing the foundations for the growth of expert systems. A byproduct of this growth will undoubtedly be the application of expert systems to various safeguards problems. Characteristics of these expert systems will involve 1) multiple rules governing an outcome, 2) confidence factors on individual variables and rule sets, 3) priority, cost, and risk based rule sets, and 4) the reasoning behind the advice or decision given by the expert system. This paper presents characteristics, structures, and examples of simple rule based systems. Potential application areas for these expert systems may include training, operations, management, designs, evaluations, and specific hardware operation

A simulation-based expert system for nuclear power plant diagnostics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hassberger, J.A.; Lee, J.C.

1989-01-01

An expert system for diagnosing operational transients in a nuclear power plant is discussed. Hypothesis and test is used as the problem-solving strategy with hypotheses generated by an expert system that monitors the plant for patterns of data symptomatic of known failure modes. Fuzzy logic is employed as the inferencing mechanism with two complementary implication schemes to handle scenarios involving competing failures. Hypothesis testing is performed. An artificial intelligence framework based on a critical functions approach is used to deal with the complexity of a nuclear plant. A prototype system for diagnosing transients in the reactor coolant system of a pressurized water reactor has been developed to test the algorithms described here. Results are presented for the diagnosis of data from the Three Mile Island Unit 2 loss-of-feedwater/small-break loss-of-collant accident

Expert systems: An overview

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Verdejo, F.

1985-01-01

The purpose of this article is to introduce readers to the basic principles of rule-based expert systems. Four topics are discussed in subsequent sections: (1) Definition; (2) Structure of an expert system; (3) State of the art and (4) Impact and future research. (orig.)

Cogent Confabulation based Expert System for Segmentation and Classification of Natural Landscape Images

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

BRAOVIC, M.

2017-05-01

Full Text Available Ever since there has been an increase in the number of automatic wildfire monitoring and surveillance systems in the last few years, natural landscape images have been of great importance. In this paper we propose an expert system for fast segmentation and classification of regions on natural landscape images that is suitable for real-time applications. We focus primarily on Mediterranean landscape images since the Mediterranean area and areas with similar climate are the ones most associated with high wildfire risk. The proposed expert system is based on cogent confabulation theory and knowledge bases that contain information about local and global features, optimal color spaces suitable for classification of certain regions, and context of each class. The obtained results indicate that the proposed expert system significantly outperforms well-known classifiers that it was compared against in both accuracy and speed, and that it is effective and efficient for real-time applications. Additionally, we present a FESB MLID dataset on which we conducted our research and that we made publicly available.

Design of a Fuzzy Rule Base Expert System to Predict and Classify ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The main objective of design of a rule base expert system using fuzzy logic approach is to predict and forecast the risk level of cardiac patients to avoid sudden death. In this proposed system, uncertainty is captured using rule base and classification using fuzzy c-means clustering is discussed to overcome the risk level, ...

Expert opinion vs. empirical evidence

Science.gov (United States)

Herman, Rod A; Raybould, Alan

2014-01-01

Expert opinion is often sought by government regulatory agencies when there is insufficient empirical evidence to judge the safety implications of a course of action. However, it can be reckless to continue following expert opinion when a preponderance of evidence is amassed that conflicts with this opinion. Factual evidence should always trump opinion in prioritizing the information that is used to guide regulatory policy. Evidence-based medicine has seen a dramatic upturn in recent years spurred by examples where evidence indicated that certain treatments recommended by expert opinions increased death rates. We suggest that scientific evidence should also take priority over expert opinion in the regulation of genetically modified crops (GM). Examples of regulatory data requirements that are not justified based on the mass of evidence are described, and it is suggested that expertise in risk assessment should guide evidence-based regulation of GM crops. PMID:24637724

An approach to build a knowledge base for reactor accident diagnostic expert system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yoshida, K.; Fujii, M.; Fujiki, K.; Yokobayashi, M.; Kohsaka, A.; Aoyagi, T.; Hirota, Y.

1987-01-01

In the development of a rule based expert system, one of the key issues is how to acquire knowledge and to build knowledge base (KB). On building the KB of DISKET, which is an expert system for nuclear reactor accident diagnosis developed in JAERI, several problems have been experienced as follows. To write rules is a time consuming task, and it is difficult to keep the objectivity and consistency of rules as the number of rules increase. Further, certainty factors (CFs) must be often determined according to engineering judgment, i.e., empirically or intuitively. A systematic approach was attempted to handle these difficulties and to build an objective KB efficiently. The approach described in this paper is based on the concept that a prototype KB, colloquially speaking an initial guess, should first be generated in a systematic way and then is to be modified and/or improved by human experts for practical use. Statistical methods, principally Factor Analysis, were used as the systematic way to build a prototype KB for the DISKET using a PWR plant simulator data. The source information is a number of data obtained from the simulation of transients, such as the status of components and annunciator etc., and major process parameters like pressures, temperatures and so on

Factors Influencing the Application of a Biopsychosocial Perspective in Clinical Judgement of Chronic Pain: Interactive Management with Medical Students.

Science.gov (United States)

Dwyer, Christopher P; McKenna-Plumley, Phoebe E; Durand, Hannah; Gormley, Emer M; Slattery, Brian W; Harney, Owen M; MacNeela, Padraig; McGuire, Brian E

2017-09-01

Though there is wide support for the application of biopsychosocial perspectives in clinical judgement of chronic pain cases, such perspectives are often overlooked due to either inadequate training or attitudes favoring a biomedical approach. Recent research has indicated that despite such explanations, both established general practitioners (GP) and medical students account for some psychosocial factors when making clinical judgements regarding chronic pain cases, but report not being likely to apply these in real-world, clinical settings due to numerous factors, including available time with patients. Thus, it is evident that a greater understanding of clinical judgement-making processes and the factors that affect application of these processes is required, particularly regarding chronic pain. The aims of the current study were to investigate medical students' conceptualizations of the factors that influence application of a biopsychosocial approach to clinical judgement-making in cases of chronic pain using interactive management (IM), model the relationships among these factors, and make recommendations to chronic pain treatment policy in light of the findings. The current study used IM to identify and model factors that influence the application of a biopsychosocial approach to clinical judgement-making in cases of chronic pain, based on medical students' conceptualizations of these factors. Two university classrooms. IM is a systems thinking and action mapping strategy used to aid groups in developing outcomes regarding complex issues, through integrating contributions from individuals with diverse views, backgrounds, and perspectives. IM commonly utilizes the nominal group technique and interpretive structural modeling, which in this context were employed to help medical students identify, clarify, and model influences on the application of biopsychosocial perspectives in treating chronic pain patients. Results of IM group work revealed 7 core

An expert system for vibration based diagnostics of rotating machines

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Korteniemi, A.

1990-01-01

Very often changes in the mechanical condition of the rotating machinery can be observed as changes in its vibration. This paper presents an expert system for vibration-based diagnosis of rotating machines by describing the architecture of the developed prototype system. The importance of modelling the problem solving knowledge as well as the domain knowledge is emphasized by presenting the knowledge in several levels

Designing Fuzzy Rule Based Expert System for Cyber Security

OpenAIRE

Goztepe, Kerim

2016-01-01

The state of cyber security has begun to attract more attention and interest outside the community of computer security experts. Cyber security is not a single problem, but rather a group of highly different problems involving different sets of threats. Fuzzy Rule based system for cyber security is a system consists of a rule depository and a mechanism for accessing and running the rules. The depository is usually constructed with a collection of related rule sets. The aim of this study is to...

A fault diagnosis and operation advising cooperative expert system based on multi-agent technology

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zhao, W.; Bai, X.; Ding, J.; Fang, Z.; Li, Z. [China Electric Power Research Inst., Haidian District, Beijing (China)

2006-07-01

Power systems are becoming more and more complex. In addition, the amount of real-time alarm messages from the supervisory control and data acquisition, energy management systems and wide area measurement systems about switchgear and protection are also increasing to a point far beyond the operator's capacity to digest the information. Research and development of a fault diagnosis system is necessary for the timely identification of fault or malfunctioning devices and for realizing the automation functions of dynamic supervisory control system. The prevailing fault diagnosis approaches in power systems include the expert system, artificial neural network, and fault diagnosis based on optimal theory. This paper discussed the advantages and disadvantages of each of these approaches for diagnosing faults. The paper also proposed a new fault diagnosis and operational processing approach based on a cooperative expert system combined with a multi-agent architecture. For solving complex and correlative faults, the cooperative expert system can overcome the deficiency of a single expert system. It can be used not only for diagnosing complex faults in real time but also in providing timely operational advice. The proposed system has been used successfully in a district power grid in China's Shangdong province for a year. 9 refs., 4 figs.

Personality Similarity between Teachers and Their Students Influences Teacher Judgement of Student Achievement

Science.gov (United States)

Rausch, Tobias; Karing, Constance; Dörfler, Tobias; Artelt, Cordula

2016-01-01

This study examined personality similarity between teachers and their students and its impact on teacher judgement of student achievement in the domains of reading comprehension and mathematics. Personality similarity was quantified through intraclass correlations between personality characteristics of 409 dyads of German teachers and their…

IDEA system - a new computer-based expert system for incorporation monitoring

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Doerfel, H.

2007-01-01

Recently, at the Karlsruhe Research Centre, a computer-based expert system, Internal Dose Equivalent Assessment System (IDEA System), has been developed for assisting dosimetrists in applying the relevant recommendations and guidelines for internal dosimetry. The expert system gives guidance to the user with respect to: (a) planning of monitoring, (b) performing routine and special monitoring, and (c) evaluation of primary monitoring results. The evaluation is done according to the IDEA System guidelines (Doerfel, H. et al., General guidelines for the estimation of committed effective dose from incorporation monitoring data. Research Report FZKA 7243, Research Center Karlsruhe, Karlsruhe (2006). ISSN 0947-8260.) in a three-stage procedure according to the expected level of exposure. At the first level the evaluation is performed with default or site-specific parameter values, at the second level case-specific parameter values are applied and at the third level a special evaluation is performed with individual adjustment of model parameter values. With these well-defined procedures the expert system follows the aim, in which all recommendations and guidelines are applied properly and the results in terms of committed effective and organ doses are close to the best estimate. (author)

Intelligent programs-expert systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gledhill, V X

1982-01-01

In recent years, computer scientists have developed what are called expert systems. These programs have three fundamental components: a knowledge base, which changes with experience; an inference engine which enables the program to make decisions; and an interface that allows the program to communicate with the person using the system. Expert systems have been developed successfully in areas such as medical diagnosis, geology, and computer maintenance. This paper describes the evolution and basic principles of expert systems and give some examples of their use.

The PWI [plutonium waste incinerator] expert system: Real time, PC-based process analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brown, K.G.; Smith, F.G.

1987-01-01

A real time, microcomputer-based expert system is being developed for a prototype plutonium waste incinerator (PWI) process at Du Pont's Savannah River Laboratory. The expert system will diagnose instrumentation problems, assist operator training, serve as a repository for engineering knowledge about the process, and provide continuous operation and performance information. A set of necessary operational criteria was developed from process and engineering constraints; it was used to define hardware and software needs. The most important criterion is operating speed because the analysis operates in real time. TURBO PROLOG by Borland International was selected. The analysis system is divided into three sections: the user-system interface, the inference engine and rule base, and the files representing the blackboard information center

Superior Administrative Court Lueneburg. Judgement of January 20, 1982 (Kruemmel)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1983-01-01

This judgement of the OVG Lueneburg (Sup. Adm. Court) decided over the action for annulment of the second part-construction permit for Kruemmel nuclear power plant. Upon the action of the appellant, the OVG partly cancelled the ''design concept license'' for the nuclear power plant and, regarding the remaining items of the appeal, dismissed the appeal. The Court decided that the license for a nuclear power plant design concept is binding for a licensing authority in as much as the following part-construction permits have to be based on the fulfilment of section 7, sub-section 2, no. 3 of the Atomic Energy Act, as far as the plant components to be licensed comply with the licensed concept and are not subject to the conditions of section 17, sub-sections 2-5 of the Atomic Energy Act. This binding effect at the same time leads to the possibility of third parties being affected. (HP) [de

Situational judgement tests and personality measurement : some answers and more questions

OpenAIRE

Judge, Timothy A.; Hofmans, Joeri; Wille, Bart

2017-01-01

Abstract: Work psychologists have devoted considerable attention to studying how personality traits can best be conceptualized and assessed in 'high-stakes' contexts such as selection or hiring decisions. Lievens argued that two selection methods, Situational Judgement Tests and Assessment Centre exercises, by standardizing and contextualizing personality measurement, offer many advantages to personality psychology. In hopes of clarifying this argument, we ask two fundamental questions: (1) W...

GIS Supported Landslide Susceptibility Modeling at Regional Scale: An Expert-Based Fuzzy Weighting Method

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Christos Chalkias

2014-04-01

Full Text Available The main aim of this paper is landslide susceptibility assessment using fuzzy expert-based modeling. Factors that influence landslide occurrence, such as elevation, slope, aspect, lithology, land cover, precipitation and seismicity were considered. Expert-based fuzzy weighting (EFW approach was used to combine these factors for landslide susceptibility mapping (Peloponnese, Greece. This method produced a landslide susceptibility map of the investigated area. The landslides under investigation have more or less same characteristics: lateral based and downslope shallow movement of soils or rocks. The validation of the model reveals, that predicted susceptibility levels are found to be in good agreement with the past landslide occurrences. Hence, the obtained landslide susceptibility map could be acceptable, for landslide hazard prevention and mitigation at regional scale.

Patients with environment-related disorders: comprehensive results of interdisciplinary diagnostics.

Science.gov (United States)

Brand, Serge; Heller, Pia; Bircher, Andreas J; Braun-Fahrleander, Charlotte; Huss, Anke; Niederer, Markus; Schwarzenbach, Simone; Waeber, Roger; Wegmann, Lukas; Kuechenhoff, Joachim

2009-03-01

Researchers dealing with environmental illnesses face complex diagnostic and methodological difficulties. Poor objective findings contrast with high subjective suffering and a firm belief that environmental exposure is the only source of complaints. The Basel pilot research project established a multi-modal assessment procedure and assessed complaints attributed to the environment. Medical, psychological and environmental findings were evaluated as to their pathogenic validity. Furthermore, patients were pooled into distinguishable subgroups in order to formulate more appropriate therapy strategies. Sixty-three patients took part in the threefold diagnostic approach (medical examination, psychiatric exploration, environmental analysis) of a mixed qualitative/quantitative study. Interdisciplinary case conferences allowed a consensus rating of the aetiological relevance of the findings to be reached. The discrepancy between self-rating and experts' judgement was exploited for subgroup formation. About 50% of the patients' symptoms could be attributed to psychiatric causes. Based on self-rating and experts' judgement, four subgroups were distinguished with differing medical, psychiatric and environmental aetiologies, personality traits and interactional competencies. Patients with environment-related disorders form a heterogeneous group. An interdisciplinary assessment and a comparison between self- and experts' judgements enable a more differentiated psychotherapeutic procedure and may enhance future treatment success.

Plant specification of a generic human-error data through a two-stage Bayesian approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Heising, C.D.; Patterson, E.I.

1984-01-01

Expert judgement concerning human performance in nuclear power plants is quantitatively coupled with actuarial data on such performance in order to derive plant-specific human-error rate probability distributions. The coupling procedure consists of a two-stage application of Bayes' theorem to information which is grouped by type. The first information type contains expert judgement concerning human performance at nuclear power plants in general. Data collected on human performance at a group of similar plants forms the second information type. The third information type consists of data on human performance in a specific plant which has the same characteristics as the group members. The first and second information types are coupled in the first application of Bayes' theorem to derive a probability distribution for population performance. This distribution is then combined with the third information type in a second application of Bayes' theorem to determine a plant-specific human-error rate probability distribution. The two stage Bayesian procedure thus provides a means to quantitatively couple sparse data with expert judgement in order to obtain a human performance probability distribution based upon available information. Example calculations for a group of like reactors are also given. (author)

A brief history and technical review of the expert system research

Science.gov (United States)

Tan, Haocheng

2017-09-01

The expert system is a computer system that emulates the decision-making ability of a human expert, which aims to solve complex problems by reasoning knowledge. It is an important branch of artificial intelligence. In this paper, firstly, we briefly introduce the development and basic structure of the expert system. Then, from the perspective of the enabling technology, we classify the current expert systems and elaborate four expert systems: The Rule-Based Expert System, the Framework-Based Expert System, the Fuzzy Logic-Based Expert System and the Expert System Based on Neural Network.

Expert systems and nuclear safety

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Beltracchi, L.

1990-01-01

The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and the Electric Power Research Institute have initiated a broad-based exploration of means to evaluate the potential applications of expert systems in the nuclear industry. This exploratory effort will assess the use of expert systems to augment the diagnostic and decision-making capabilities of personnel with the goal of enhancing productivity, reliability, and performance. The initial research effort is the development and documentation of guidelines for verifying and validating (V and V) expert systems. An initial application of expert systems in the nuclear industry is to aid operations and maintenance personnel in decision-making tasks. The scope of the decision aiding covers all types of cognitive behavior consisting of skill, rule, and knowledge-based behavior. For example, procedure trackers were designed and tested to support rule-based behavior. Further, these systems automate many of the tedious, error-prone human monitoring tasks, thereby reducing the potential for human error. The paper version of the procedure contains the knowledge base and the rules and thus serves as the basis of the design verification of the procedure tracker. Person-in-the-loop tests serve as the basis for the validation of a procedure tracker. When conducting validation tests, it is important to ascertain that the human retains the locus of control in the use of the expert system

Expert system for estimating LWR plutonium production

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sandquist, G.M.

1988-01-01

An Artificial Intelligence-Expert System called APES (Analysis of Proliferation by Expert System) has been developed and tested to permit a non proliferation expert to evaluate the capability and capacity of a specified LWR reactor and PUREX reprocessing system for producing and separating plutonium even when system information may be limited and uncertain. APES employs an expert system coded in LISP and based upon an HP-RL (Hewlett Packard-Representational Language) Expert System Shell. The user I/O interface communicates with a blackboard and the knowledge base which contains the quantitative models required to describe the reactor, selected fission product production and radioactive decay processes, Purex reprocessing and ancillary knowledge

Learning from the Pros: Influence of Web-Based Expert Commentary on Vicarious Learning about Financial Markets

Science.gov (United States)

Ford, Matthew W.; Kent, Daniel W.; Devoto, Steven

2007-01-01

Web-based financial commentary, in which experts routinely express market-related thought processes, is proposed as a means for college students to learn vicariously about financial markets. Undergraduate business school students from a regional university were exposed to expert market commentary from a single financial Web site for a 6-week…

Expert judgment for nuclear energy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Choi, Young Sung; Lee, Sun Ho; Lee, Byong Whi

2000-01-01

Public perception on nuclear energy is much influenced by subjective impressions mostly formed through sensational and dramatic news of mass media or anti-nuclear groups. However, nuclear experts, those who have more relevant knowledge and information about nuclear energy, may have reasonable opinion based on scientific facts or inferences. Thus their opinion and consensus should be examined and taken into account during the process of nuclear energy policy formulation. For the purpose of eliciting experts' opinion, the web-based on-line survey system (eBOSS) was developed. Using the survey system, experts' views on nuclear energy were tallied, analyzed and compared with the public's. Based on the survey results, the paper suggests some recommendations about the future direction of the public information program in Korea

Beyond dual-process models: A categorisation of processes underlying intuitive judgement and decision making

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Glöckner, A.; Witteman, C.L.M.

2010-01-01

Intuitive-automatic processes are crucial for making judgements and decisions. The fascinating complexity of these processes has attracted many decision researchers, prompting them to start investigating intuition empirically and to develop numerous models. Dual-process models assume a clear

Probabilistic safety assessment based expert systems in support of dynamic risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Varde, P.V.; Sharma, U.L.; Marik, S.K.; Raina, V.K.; Tikku, A.C.

2006-01-01

Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) studies are being performed, world over as part of integrated risk assessment for Nuclear Power Plants and in many cases PSA insight is utilized in support of decision making. Though the modern plants are built with inherent safety provisions, particularly to reduce the supervisory requirements during initial period into the accident, it is always desired to develop an efficient user friendly real-time operator advisory system for handling of plant transients/emergencies which would be of immense benefit for the enhancement of operational safety of the plant. This paper discusses an integrated approach for the development of operator support system. In this approach, PSA methodology and the insight obtained from PSA has been utilized for development of knowledge based or rule based experts system. While Artificial Neural Network (ANN) approach has been employed for transient identification, rule-base expert system shell environment was used for the development of diagnostic module in this system. Attempt has been made to demonstrate that this approach offers an efficient framework for addressing requirements related to handling of real-time/dynamic scenario. (author)

Distinct contribution of the parietal and temporal cortex to hand configuration and contextual judgements about tools.

Science.gov (United States)

Andres, Michael; Pelgrims, Barbara; Olivier, Etienne

2013-09-01

Neuropsychological studies showed that manipulatory and semantic knowledge can be independently impaired in patients with upper-limb apraxia, leading to different tool use disorders. The present study aimed to dissociate the brain regions involved in judging the hand configuration or the context associated to tool use. We focussed on the left supramarginalis gyrus (SMG) and left middle temporal gyrus (MTG), whose activation, as evidenced by functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) studies, suggests that they may play a critical role in tool use. The distinctive location of SMG in the dorsal visual stream led us to postulate that this parietal region could play a role in processing incoming information about tools to shape hand posture. In contrast, we hypothesized that MTG, because of its interconnections with several cortical areas involved in semantic memory, could contribute to retrieving semantic information necessary to create a contextual representation of tool use. To test these hypotheses, we used neuronavigated transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) to interfere transiently with the function of either left SMG or left MTG in healthy participants performing judgement tasks about either hand configuration or context of tool use. We found that SMG virtual lesions impaired hand configuration but not contextual judgements, whereas MTG lesions selectively interfered with judgements about the context of tool use while leaving hand configuration judgements unaffected. This double dissociation demonstrates that the ability to infer a context of use or a hand posture from tool perception relies on distinct processes, performed in the temporal and parietal regions. The present findings suggest that tool use disorders caused by SMG lesions will be characterized by difficulties in selecting the appropriate hand posture for tool use, whereas MTG lesions will yield difficulties in using tools in the appropriate context. Copyright © 2012. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Brazilian medical students’ perceptions of expert versus non-expert facilitators in a (non problem-based learning environment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lucélio B. Couto

2015-04-01

Full Text Available Background: In problem-based learning (PBL, the facilitator plays an important role in guiding the student learning process. However, although content expertise is generally regarded as a useful but non-essential prerequisite for effective PBL facilitation, the perceived importance of content knowledge may be subject to cultural, contextual, and/or experiential influences. Aim: We sought to examine medical students’ perceptions of subject-matter expertise among PBL facilitators in a region of the world (Brazil where such active learning pedagogies are not widely used in university or pre-university settings. Results: Of the 252 Brazilian medical students surveyed, significantly (p≤0.001 greater proportions viewed content expert facilitators to be more effective than their non-expert counterparts at building knowledge (95% vs. 6%, guiding the learning process (93% vs. 7%, achieving cognitive learning (92% vs. 18%, generating learning goals (87% vs. 15%, and motivating self-study (80% vs. 15%. Discussion/conclusion: According to Brazilian medical students, subject-matter expertise among PBL facilitators is essential to the learning process. We believe this widespread perception is due, in large part, to the relative lack of prior educational exposure to such pedagogies.

SLC beam line error analysis using a model-based expert system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, M.; Kleban, S.

1988-02-01

Commissioning particle beam line is usually a very time-consuming and labor-intensive task for accelerator physicists. To aid in commissioning, we developed a model-based expert system that identifies error-free regions, as well as localizing beam line errors. This paper will give examples of the use of our system for the SLC commissioning. 8 refs., 5 figs

Professional approaches in clinical judgements among senior and junior doctors: implications for medical education

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pilhammar Ewa

2009-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Clinical experience has traditionally been highly valued in medical education and clinical healthcare. On account of its multi-faceted nature, clinical experience is mostly difficult to articulate, and is mainly expressed in clinical situations as professional approaches. Due to retirement, hospitals in Scandinavia will soon face a substantial decrease in the number of senior specialist doctors, and it has been discussed whether healthcare will suffer an immense loss of experienced-based knowledge when this senior group leaves the organization. Both senior specialists and junior colleagues are often involved in clinical education, but the way in which these two groups vary in professional approaches and contributions to clinical education has not been so well described. Cognitive psychology has contributed to the understanding of how experience may influence professional approaches, but such studies have not included the effect of differences in position and responsibilities that junior and senior doctors hold in clinical healthcare. In the light of the discussion above, it is essential to describe the professional approaches of senior doctors in relation to those of their junior colleagues. This study therefore aims to describe and compare the professional approaches of junior and senior doctors when making clinical judgements. Methods Critical incident technique was used in interviews with nine senior doctors and nine junior doctors in internal medicine. The interviews were subjected to qualitative content analysis. Result Senior and junior doctors expressed a variety of professional approaches in clinical judgement as follows: use of theoretical knowledge, use of prior experience of cases and courses of events, use of ethical and moral values, meeting and communicating with the patient, focusing on available information, relying on their own ability, getting support and guidance from others and being directed by the

Is therapeutic judgement influenced by the patient's socio-economic status?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Madsen, Esben Elholm; Morville, Anne-Le; Larsen, Anette Enemark

2016-01-01

Background In Denmark patients are entitled to rehabilitation regardless of socio-economic status (SES). During this process therapists have to balance cost effectiveness with providing equal treatment. Aim To investigate whether occupational therapists and physiotherapists were influenced...... their professional ethical principles, although they might face ethical dilemmas during their clinical decision-making. In order to prevent and resolve these dilemmas, they have to be made explicit. However, further research on how SES influences the health care professional's judgement is warranted....

Evaluating the validity of an integrity-based situational judgement test for medical school admissions.

Science.gov (United States)

Husbands, Adrian; Rodgerson, Mark J; Dowell, Jon; Patterson, Fiona

2015-09-02

While the construct of integrity has emerged as a front-runner amongst the desirable attributes to select for in medical school admissions, it is less clear how best to assess this characteristic. A potential solution lies in the use of Situational Judgement Tests (SJTs) which have gained popularity due to robust psychometric evidence and potential for large-scale administration. This study aims to explore the psychometric properties of an SJT designed to measure the construct of integrity. Ten SJT scenarios, each with five response stems were developed from critical incident interviews with academic and clinical staff. 200 of 520 (38.5 %) Multiple Mini Interview candidates at Dundee Medical School participated in the study during the 2012-2013 admissions cycle. Participants were asked to rate the appropriateness of each SJT response on a 4-point likert scale as well as complete the HEXACO personality inventory and a face validity questionnaire. Pearson's correlations and descriptive statistics were used to examine the associations between SJT score, HEXACO personality traits, pre-admissions measures namely academic and United Kingdom Clinical Aptitude Test (UKCAT) scores, as well as acceptability. Cronbach's alpha reliability for the SJT was .64. Statistically significant correlations ranging from .16 to .36 (.22 to .53 disattenuated) were observed between SJT score and the honesty-humility (integrity), conscientiousness, extraversion and agreeableness dimensions of the HEXACO inventory. A significant correlation of .32 (.47 disattenuated) was observed between SJT and MMI scores and no significant relationship with the UKCAT. Participant reactions to the SJTs were generally positive. Initial findings are encouraging regarding the psychometric robustness of an integrity-based SJT for medical student selection, with significant associations found between the SJTs, integrity, other desirable personality traits and the MMI. The SJTs showed little or no redundancy with

Assessing Teachers' Judgements of Students' Academic Motivation and Emotions across Two Rating Methods

Science.gov (United States)

Zhu, Mingjing; Urhahne, Detlef

2014-01-01

The present study examines the accuracy of teachers' judgements about students' motivation and emotions in English learning with two different rating methods. A sample of 480 sixth-grade Chinese students reported their academic self-concept, learning effort, enjoyment, and test anxiety via a questionnaire and were rated on these dimensions by…

Expert systems in clinical microbiology.

Science.gov (United States)

Winstanley, Trevor; Courvalin, Patrice

2011-07-01

This review aims to discuss expert systems in general and how they may be used in medicine as a whole and clinical microbiology in particular (with the aid of interpretive reading). It considers rule-based systems, pattern-based systems, and data mining and introduces neural nets. A variety of noncommercial systems is described, and the central role played by the EUCAST is stressed. The need for expert rules in the environment of reset EUCAST breakpoints is also questioned. Commercial automated systems with on-board expert systems are considered, with emphasis being placed on the "big three": Vitek 2, BD Phoenix, and MicroScan. By necessity and in places, the review becomes a general review of automated system performances for the detection of specific resistance mechanisms rather than focusing solely on expert systems. Published performance evaluations of each system are drawn together and commented on critically.

Problems with quantification of safety culture

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kozuh, M.; Mavko, B.

1995-01-01

For the qualitative part of the method for the Safety Culture assessment we quantitative part was developed based on expert judgement and statistical methods. The quantitative assessment should go in parallel with the qualitative part already presented. The essential part is based on expert opinion which organizational factors are the most important for certain risk significant components and how well are they implemented. The problems with getting the ratings are described in the paper. (author)

NDT-based bridge condition assessment supported by expert tools

Science.gov (United States)

Bień, J.; KuŻawa, M.

2016-06-01

This paper is focused on the progress in the application of Expert Tools supporting integration of inspection and NDT testing findings in order to effectuate effective decision making by bridge owners. Possibilities of knowledge representation in the intelligent computer Expert Tools by means of the multi-level hybrid network technology are described. These multi-level hybrid networks can be built of neural, fuzzy and functional components depending on the problem that needs to be solved and on the type of available information. Application of the technology is illustrated by an example of the Bridge Evaluation Expert Function (BEEF) implemented in the Railway Bridge Management System "SMOK" operated by the Polish State Railways.

The importance of early-school radioactivity education in cultivating proper reflexive judgement on radiation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nishina, Kojiro [Aichi Shukutoku Univ., The College of Contemporary Social Studies, Nagakute, Aichi (Japan)

1999-09-01

An attempt is made to draw a preliminary conclusion on the effectiveness of early-school education on radioactivity, based on two cases of student responses. The first is the returns of questionnaires circulated at two colleges, which were typical of an engineering college and a liberal-arts college, respectively. The second is the reactions of liberal arts students to observed, unexpected levels of radiation in their environment. Their reaction was dominated by their preoccupation on radiation, rather than by the quantitative data they themselves collected on the spot. Thus classes in early schooldays are considered to play a vital role in cultivating proper judgement they are to rely on as general citizens. (author)

The importance of early-school radioactivity education in cultivating proper reflexive judgement on radiation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nishina, Kojiro

1999-01-01

An attempt is made to draw a preliminary conclusion on the effectiveness of early-school education on radioactivity, based on two cases of student responses. The first is the returns of questionnaires circulated at two colleges, which were typical of an engineering college and a liberal-arts college, respectively. The second is the reactions of liberal arts students to observed, unexpected levels of radiation in their environment. Their reaction was dominated by their preoccupation on radiation, rather than by the quantitative data they themselves collected on the spot. Thus classes in early schooldays are considered to play a vital role in cultivating proper judgement they are to rely on as general citizens. (author)

ALICE Expert System

CERN Document Server

Ionita, C

2014-01-01

The ALICE experiment at CERN employs a number of human operators (shifters), who have to make sure that the experiment is always in a state compatible with taking Physics data. Given the complexity of the system and the myriad of errors that can arise, this is not always a trivial task. The aim of this paper is to describe an expert system that is capable of assisting human shifters in the ALICE control room. The system diagnoses potential issues and attempts to make smart recommendations for troubleshooting. At its core, a Prolog engine infers whether a Physics or a technical run can be started based on the current state of the underlying sub-systems. A separate C++ component queries certain SMI objects and stores their state as facts in a Prolog knowledge base. By mining the data stored in dierent system logs, the expert system can also diagnose errors arising during a run. Currently the system is used by the on-call experts for faster response times, but we expect it to be adopted as a standard tool by reg...

BWR recirculation pump diagnostic expert system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chiang, S.C.; Morimoto, C.N.; Torres, M.R.

2004-01-01

At General Electric (GE), an on-line expert system to support maintenance decisions for BWR recirculation pumps for nuclear power plants has been developed. This diagnostic expert system is an interactive on-line system that furnishes diagnostic information concerning BWR recirculation pump operational problems. It effectively provides the recirculation pump diagnostic expertise in the plant control room continuously 24 hours a day. The expert system is interfaced to an on-line monitoring system, which uses existing plant sensors to acquire non-safety related data in real time. The expert system correlates and evaluates process data and vibration data by applying expert rules to determine the condition of a BWR recirculation pump system by applying knowledge based rules. Any diagnosis will be automatically displayed, indicating which pump may have a problem, the category of the problem, and the degree of concern expressed by the validity index and color hierarchy. The rules incorporate the expert knowledge from various technical sources such as plant experience, engineering principles, and published reports. These rules are installed in IF-THEN formats and the resulting truth values are also expressed in fuzzy terms and a certainty factor called a validity index. This GE Recirculation Pump Expert System uses industry-standard software, hardware, and network access to provide flexible interfaces with other possible data acquisition systems. Gensym G2 Real-Time Expert System is used for the expert shell and provides the graphical user interface, knowledge base, and inference engine capabilities. (author)

Expert systems: an alternative paradigm

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Coombs, M.; Alty, J.

1984-01-01

There has recently been a significant effort by the AI community to interest industry in the potential of expert systems. However, this has resulted in far fewer substantial applications projects than might be expected. This article argues that this is because human experts are rarely required to perform the role that computer-based experts are programmed to adopt. Instead of being called in to answer well-defined problems, they are more often asked to assist other experts to extend and refine their understanding of a problem area at the junction of their two domains of knowledge. This more properly involves educational rather than problem-solving skills. An alternative approach to expert system design is proposed based upon guided discovery learning. The user is provided with a supportive environment for a particular class of problem, the system predominantly acting as an adviser rather than directing the interaction. The environment includes a database of domain knowledge, a set of procedures for its application to a concrete problem, and an intelligent machine-based adviser to judge the user's effectiveness and advise on strategy. The procedures focus upon the use of user generated explanations both to promote the application of domain knowledge and to expose understanding difficulties. Simple database PROLOG is being used as the subject material for the prototype system which is known as MINDPAD. 30 references.

Young children’s environmental judgement and its relationship with their understanding of the concept of living things

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Villarroel José Domingo

2017-03-01

Full Text Available Do young children think that plants deserve morally-based respect or, on the contrary, do they feel that respect for plant life is nothing more than another behavioural norm similar to, for instance, one that states that you should not pick your nose in public? This study examines how dilemmas involving environmental, moral and socio-conventional situations are comprehended in early childhood so as to investigate the issue of whether young children attach a significant degree of severity to transgressions against plant life in comparison with disregarding socially accepted rules. Additionally, young children’s judgements are put into perspective alongside their understanding of the concept of living things in order to shed light on the role that grasping essential biological notions might play in the emergence of young children’s assessments of actions that pose a threat to the environment. The sample of the study consists of 328 children (162 girls and 166 boys who attend Early Years Education or Primary Education and the data examined comes from the individual interviews conducted with the children. The results are discussed in connection with the current understanding of the source of ethical judgements which emphasises the importance that emotions seem to play in the construction of moral thinking.

A study on the dryness judgement criterion for leak test in water-cooled generator stator windings

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Hee Soo; Bae, Yong Chae; Lee, Wook Ryun; Lee, Doo Young; Cho, Sung Won

2009-01-01

The complete dryness of stator inside is a necessary and sufficient condition for leak test. Microcracks by high cycle fatigue due to operation are generated in stator windings and they are interrupted by water molecules during leak test. For this reason, during leak test, the wrong value is indicated as follows: There are no leaks in stator windings. Generator manufacturers presents unique dryness judgement criteria for leak test but actually any criteria never indicate accurate dryness point for leak test. The reason is that stator winding has a complexity of structure and absence of an effective dryness equipment in power plant. In this paper, dryness judgement criterion to judge if stator winding inside is dried completely is proposed and is testified experimentally.

Inductive acquisition of expert knowledge

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Muggleton, S.H.

1986-01-01

Expert systems divide neatly into two categories: those in which (1) the expert decisions result in changes to some external environment (control systems), and (2) the expert decisions merely seek to describe the environment (classification systems). Both the explanation of computer-based reasoning and the bottleneck (Feigenbaum, 1979) of knowledge acquisition are major issues in expert-systems research. The author contributed to these areas of research in two ways: 1. He implemented an expert-system shell, the Mugol environment, which facilitates knowledge acquisition by inductive inference and provides automatic explanation of run-time reasoning on demand. RuleMaster, a commercial version of this environment, was used to advantage industrially in the construction and testing of two large classification systems. 2. He investigated a new techniques called 'sequence induction' that can be used in construction of control systems. Sequence induction is based on theoretical work in grammatical learning. He improved existing grammatical learning algorithms as well as suggesting and theoretically characterizing new ones. These algorithms were successfully applied to acquisition of knowledge for a diverse set of control systems, including inductive construction of robot plans and chess end-gam strategies.

Expert Systems in Reference Services.

Science.gov (United States)

Roysdon, Christine, Ed.; White, Howard D., Ed.

1989-01-01

Eleven articles introduce expert systems applications in library and information science, and present design and implementation issues of system development for reference services. Topics covered include knowledge based systems, prototype development, the use of artificial intelligence to remedy current system inadequacies, and an expert system to…

Price competition between an expert and a non-expert

OpenAIRE

Bouckaert, J.M.C.; Degryse, H.A.

1998-01-01

This paper characterizes price competition between an expert and a non-expert. In contrast with the expert, the non-expert’s repair technology is not always successful. Consumers visit the expert after experiencing an unsuccessful match at the non-expert. This re-entry affects the behaviour of both sellers. For low enough probability of successful repair at the non-expert, all consumers first visit the non-expert, and a ‘timid-pricing’ equilibrium results. If the non-expert’s repair technolog...

Development of a QFD-based expert system for CNC turning centre selection

Science.gov (United States)

Prasad, Kanika; Chakraborty, Shankar

2015-12-01

Computer numerical control (CNC) machine tools are automated devices capable of generating complicated and intricate product shapes in shorter time. Selection of the best CNC machine tool is a critical, complex and time-consuming task due to availability of a wide range of alternatives and conflicting nature of several evaluation criteria. Although, the past researchers had attempted to select the appropriate machining centres using different knowledge-based systems, mathematical models and multi-criteria decision-making methods, none of those approaches has given due importance to the voice of customers. The aforesaid limitation can be overcome using quality function deployment (QFD) technique, which is a systematic approach for integrating customers' needs and designing the product to meet those needs first time and every time. In this paper, the adopted QFD-based methodology helps in selecting CNC turning centres for a manufacturing organization, providing due importance to the voice of customers to meet their requirements. An expert system based on QFD technique is developed in Visual BASIC 6.0 to automate the CNC turning centre selection procedure for different production plans. Three illustrative examples are demonstrated to explain the real-time applicability of the developed expert system.

Expert system in PNC, 5

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tobita, Yoshimasa; Yamaguchi, Takashi; Matsumoto, Mitsuo; Ono, Kiyoshi.

1990-01-01

The computer code system which can evaluate the mass balance and cycle cost in nuclear fuel cycle has been developing a PNC using an artificial intelligence technique. This system is composed of the expert system, data base and analysis codes. The expert system is the most important one in the system and the content of the expert system is explained in this paper. The expert system has the three functions. The first is the function of understanding the meaning of user's questions by natural language, the second is the function of selecting the best way to solve the problem given by the user using the knowledge which is already installed in the system, and the last is the function of answering the questions. The knowledge of the experts installed in the expert system is represented by the frame-type rules. Therefore, the knowledge will be simply added to the system, and consequently the system will be easily extended. (author)

Knowledge base expert system control of spatial xenon oscillations in pressurized water reactors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alten, S.

1992-01-01

Nuclear reactor operators are required to pay special attention to spatial xenon oscillations during the load-follow operation of pressurized water reactors. They are expected to observe the axial offset of the core, and to estimate the correct time and amount of necessary control action based on heuristic rules given in axial xenon oscillations are knowledge intensive, and heuristic in nature. An expert system, ACES (Axial offset Control using Expert Systems) is developed to implement a heuristic constant axial offset control procedure to aid reactor operators in increasing the plant reliability by reducing the human error component of the failure probability. ACES is written in a production system language, OPS5, based on the forward chaining algorithm. It samples reactor data with a certain time interval in terms of measurable parameters, such as the power, period, and the axial offset of the core. It then processes the core status utilizing a set of equations which are used in a back of the envelope calculations by domain experts. Heuristic rules of ACES identify the control variable to be used among the full and part length control rods and boron concentration, while a knowledge base is used to determine the amount of control. ACES is designed as a set of generic rules to avoid reducing the system into a set of patterns. Instead ACES evaluates the system, determines the necessary corrective actions in terms of reactivity insertion, and provides this reactivity insertion using the control variables. The amount of control action is determined using a knowledge base which consists of the differential rod worth curves, and the boron reactivity worth of a given reactor. Having the reactor dependent parameters in its knowledge base, ACES is applicable to an arbitrary reactor for axial offset control purposes

A Knowledge-Based Expert System Using MFM Model for Operator Supporting

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mo, Kun; Seong, Poong Hyun

2005-01-01

In this paper, a knowledge-based expert system using MFM (Multi-level Flow Modeling) is proposed for enhancing the operators' ability to cope with various situations in nuclear power plant. There are many complicated situations, in which regular and suitable operations should be done by operators accordingly. In order to help the operator to assess the situations promptly and accurately, and to regulate their operations according to these situations. it is necessary to develop an expert systems to help the operator for the fault diagnosis, alarm analysis, and operation results estimation for each operation. Many kinds of operator supporting systems focusing on different functions have been developed. Most of them used various methodologies for single diagnosis function or operation permission function. The proposed system integrated functions of fault diagnosis, alarm analysis and operation results estimation by the MFM basic algorithm for the operator supporting

Hierarchical Model of Assessing and Selecting Experts

OpenAIRE

Chernysheva, Tatiana Yurievna; Korchuganova, Mariya Anatolievna; Borisov, V. V.; Minkov, S. L.

2016-01-01

Revealing experts' competences is a multi-objective issue. Authors of the paper deal with competence assessing methods of experts seen as objects, and criteria of qualities. An analytic hierarchy process of assessing and ranking experts is offered, which is based on paired comparison matrices and scores, quality parameters are taken into account as well. Calculation and assessment of experts is given as an example.

Larger right posterior parietal volume in action video game experts: a behavioral and voxel-based morphometry (VBM study.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Satoshi Tanaka

Full Text Available Recent studies suggest that action video game players exhibit superior performance in visuospatial cognitive tasks compared with non-game players. However, the neural basis underlying this visuospatial cognitive performance advantage remains largely unknown. The present human behavioral and imaging study compared gray matter volume in action video game experts and non-experts using structural magnetic resonance imaging and voxel-based morphometry analysis. The results revealed significantly larger gray matter volume in the right posterior parietal cortex in experts compared with non-experts. Furthermore, the larger gray matter volume in the right posterior parietal cortex significantly correlated with individual performance in a visual working memory task in experts. These results suggest that differences in brain structure may be linked to extensive video game play, leading to superior visuospatial cognitive performance in action video game experts.

The effect of maintenance policy violations

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Rijsdijk, Christiaan; Tinga, Tiedo

2014-01-01

Motivation Maintenance policy assessments usually rely on expert judgement. We seek for some history based validation. Organisations may use our inference to assess risks of maintenance policy violations. Approach We depart from the arbitrary viewpoint that decisions have observable effects. We

Rule base system in developing groundwater pollution expert system: predicting model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mongkon Ta-oun; Mohamed Daud; Mohd Zohadie Bardaie; Shamshuddin Jusop

2000-01-01

New techniques are now available for use in the protection of the environment. One of these techniques is the use of expert system for prediction groundwater pollution potential. Groundwater Pollution Expert system (GWPES) rules are a collection of principles and procedures used to know the comprehension of groundwater pollution prediction. The rules of groundwater pollution expert system in the form of questions, choice, radio-box, slide rule, button or frame are translated in to IF-THEN rule. The rules including of variables, types, domains and descriptions were used by the function of wxCLIPS (C Language Integrate Production System) expert system shell. (author)

Being similar while judging right and wrong: The effects of personal and situational similarity on moral judgements.

Science.gov (United States)

Pascal, Emilia

2017-07-20

This study investigated the effects of similarity with the transgressor and the victim on the perceived immorality of the transgression. Participants read two stories describing a person that cheated on their partner and a police officer that mistreated somebody. In the first story we manipulated participants' personal similarity to the transgressor and in the second their personal similarity to the victim. In each story, participants' past situational similarity to the target character was assessed according to their previous experiences of being in the same position. Results show that both personal and past situational similarity to the transgressor determine less severe moral judgements, while personal and past situational similarity with the victim have the opposite effect. We also tested several potential mediators of these effects, derived from competing theoretical accounts of the influence of similarity on perceived responsibility. Empathy emerged as mediating most of the effects of similarity on moral judgements, except those induced by past situational similarity with the victim. The foreseen probability of being in a similar situation mediated only the effects of similarity to the transgressor, and not those of similarity to the victim. Overall, results highlight the complex mechanisms of the influences of similarity on moral judgements. © 2017 International Union of Psychological Science.

Expert database system for quality control

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Anne J.; Li, Zhi-Cheng

1993-09-01

There are more competitors today. Markets are not homogeneous they are fragmented into increasingly focused niches requiring greater flexibility in the product mix shorter manufacturing production runs and above allhigher quality. In this paper the author identified a real-time expert system as a way to improve plantwide quality management. The quality control expert database system (QCEDS) by integrating knowledge of experts in operations quality management and computer systems use all information relevant to quality managementfacts as well as rulesto determine if a product meets quality standards. Keywords: expert system quality control data base

A living PSA based on use of expert systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ancelin, C.; Bouissou, M.; Le, P.; De Saint-Quentin, S.; Villatte, N.

1989-01-01

This paper presents the expert systems that are developed by EDF in the framework of the French PSA. Aimed at automatically generating reliability models (fault trees, state graphs....), these expert systems are used for the reliability studies of safety systems in the Paluel nuclear power plant. Beyond the description of the implemented method, this paper insists on the new approach proposed to the reliability engineer, when using artificial intelligence techniques

ALICE Expert System

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ionita, C; Carena, F

2014-01-01

The ALICE experiment at CERN employs a number of human operators (shifters), who have to make sure that the experiment is always in a state compatible with taking Physics data. Given the complexity of the system and the myriad of errors that can arise, this is not always a trivial task. The aim of this paper is to describe an expert system that is capable of assisting human shifters in the ALICE control room. The system diagnoses potential issues and attempts to make smart recommendations for troubleshooting. At its core, a Prolog engine infers whether a Physics or a technical run can be started based on the current state of the underlying sub-systems. A separate C++ component queries certain SMI objects and stores their state as facts in a Prolog knowledge base. By mining the data stored in different system logs, the expert system can also diagnose errors arising during a run. Currently the system is used by the on-call experts for faster response times, but we expect it to be adopted as a standard tool by regular shifters during the next data taking period

WINE ADVISOR EXPERT SYSTEM USING DECISION RULES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dinuca Elena Claudia

2013-07-01

Full Text Available In this article I focus on developing an expert system for advising the choice of wine that best matches a specific occasion. An expert system is a computer application that performs a task that would be performed by a human expert. The implementation is done using Delphi programming language. I used to represent the knowledge bases a set of rules. The rules are of type IF THEN ELSE rules, decision rules based on different important wine features.

Impact of vocational interests, previous academic experience, gender and age on Situational Judgement Test performance

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Schripsema, Nienke R.; Trigt, van Anke M.; Borleffs, Jan C. C.; Cohen-Schotanus, Janke

Situational Judgement Tests (SJTs) are increasingly implemented in medical school admissions. In this paper, we investigate the effects of vocational interests, previous academic experience, gender and age on SJT performance. The SJT was part of the selection process for the Bachelor's degree

Knowledge based expert system approach to instrumentation selection (INSEL

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. Barai

2004-08-01

Full Text Available The selection of appropriate instrumentation for any structural measurement of civil engineering structure is a complex task. Recent developments in Artificial Intelligence (AI can help in an organized use of experiential knowledge available on instrumentation for laboratory and in-situ measurement. Usually, the instrumentation decision is based on the experience and judgment of experimentalists. The heuristic knowledge available for different types of measurement is domain dependent and the information is scattered in varied knowledge sources. The knowledge engineering techniques can help in capturing the experiential knowledge. This paper demonstrates a prototype knowledge based system for INstrument SELection (INSEL assistant where the experiential knowledge for various structural domains can be captured and utilized for making instrumentation decision. In particular, this Knowledge Based Expert System (KBES encodes the heuristics on measurement and demonstrates the instrument selection process with reference to steel bridges. INSEL runs on a microcomputer and uses an INSIGHT 2+ environment.

An expert fitness diagnosis system based on elastic cloud computing.

Science.gov (United States)

Tseng, Kevin C; Wu, Chia-Chuan

2014-01-01

This paper presents an expert diagnosis system based on cloud computing. It classifies a user's fitness level based on supervised machine learning techniques. This system is able to learn and make customized diagnoses according to the user's physiological data, such as age, gender, and body mass index (BMI). In addition, an elastic algorithm based on Poisson distribution is presented to allocate computation resources dynamically. It predicts the required resources in the future according to the exponential moving average of past observations. The experimental results show that Naïve Bayes is the best classifier with the highest accuracy (90.8%) and that the elastic algorithm is able to capture tightly the trend of requests generated from the Internet and thus assign corresponding computation resources to ensure the quality of service.

An Expert Fitness Diagnosis System Based on Elastic Cloud Computing

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kevin C. Tseng

2014-01-01

Full Text Available This paper presents an expert diagnosis system based on cloud computing. It classifies a user’s fitness level based on supervised machine learning techniques. This system is able to learn and make customized diagnoses according to the user’s physiological data, such as age, gender, and body mass index (BMI. In addition, an elastic algorithm based on Poisson distribution is presented to allocate computation resources dynamically. It predicts the required resources in the future according to the exponential moving average of past observations. The experimental results show that Naïve Bayes is the best classifier with the highest accuracy (90.8% and that the elastic algorithm is able to capture tightly the trend of requests generated from the Internet and thus assign corresponding computation resources to ensure the quality of service.

Reliability-Based and Cost-Oriented Product Optimization Integrating Fuzzy Reasoning Petri Nets, Interval Expert Evaluation and Cultural-Based DMOPSO Using Crowding Distance Sorting

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhaoxi Hong

2017-08-01

Full Text Available In reliability-based and cost-oriented product optimization, the target product reliability is apportioned to subsystems or components to achieve the maximum reliability and minimum cost. Main challenges to conducting such optimization design lie in how to simultaneously consider subsystem division, uncertain evaluation provided by experts for essential factors, and dynamic propagation of product failure. To overcome these problems, a reliability-based and cost-oriented product optimization method integrating fuzzy reasoning Petri net (FRPN, interval expert evaluation and cultural-based dynamic multi-objective particle swarm optimization (DMOPSO using crowding distance sorting is proposed in this paper. Subsystem division is performed based on failure decoupling, and then subsystem weights are calculated with FRPN reflecting dynamic and uncertain failure propagation, as well as interval expert evaluation considering six essential factors. A mathematical model of reliability-based and cost-oriented product optimization is established, and the cultural-based DMOPSO with crowding distance sorting is utilized to obtain the optimized design scheme. The efficiency and effectiveness of the proposed method are demonstrated by the numerical example of the optimization design for a computer numerically controlled (CNC machine tool.

Surgical experts: born or made?

Science.gov (United States)

Sadideen, Hazim; Alvand, Abtin; Saadeddin, Munir; Kneebone, Roger

2013-01-01

The concept of surgical expertise and the processes involved in its development are topical, and there is a constant drive to identify reliable measures of expert performance in surgery. This review explores the notion of whether surgical experts are "born" or "made", with reference to educational theory and pertinent literature. Peer-reviewed publications, books, and online resources on surgical education, expertise and training were reviewed. Important themes and aspects of expertise acquisition were identified in order to better understand the concept of a surgical expert. The definition of surgical expertise and several important aspects of its development are highlighted. Innate talent plays an important role, but is insufficient on its own to produce a surgical expert. Multiple theories that explore motor skill acquisition and memory are relevant, and Ericsson's theory of the development of competence followed by deliberate self-practice has been especially influential. Psychomotor and non-technical skills are necessary for progression in the current climate in light of our training curricula; surgical experts are adaptive experts who excel in these. The literature suggests that surgical expertise is reached through practice; surgical experts are made, not born. A deeper understanding of the nature of expert performance and its development will ensure that surgical education training programmes are of the highest possible quality. Surgical educators should aim to develop an expertise-based approach, with expert performance as the benchmark. Copyright © 2013 Surgical Associates Ltd. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Matrix Failure Modes and Effects Analysis as a Knowledge Base for a Real Time Automated Diagnosis Expert System

Science.gov (United States)

Herrin, Stephanie; Iverson, David; Spukovska, Lilly; Souza, Kenneth A. (Technical Monitor)

1994-01-01

Failure Modes and Effects Analysis contain a wealth of information that can be used to create the knowledge base required for building automated diagnostic Expert systems. A real time monitoring and diagnosis expert system based on an actual NASA project's matrix failure modes and effects analysis was developed. This Expert system Was developed at NASA Ames Research Center. This system was first used as a case study to monitor the Research Animal Holding Facility (RAHF), a Space Shuttle payload that is used to house and monitor animals in orbit so the effects of space flight and microgravity can be studied. The techniques developed for the RAHF monitoring and diagnosis Expert system are general enough to be used for monitoring and diagnosis of a variety of other systems that undergo a Matrix FMEA. This automated diagnosis system was successfully used on-line and validated on the Space Shuttle flight STS-58, mission SLS-2 in October 1993.

The cluster analysis based on non-teacher artificial neural network for the danger prediction of coal spontaneous fire

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wang, D.; Wang, J. [China University of Mining and Technology (China)

1999-04-01

This paper focuses on the problem of predicting the danger level of spontaneous fire in coal mines. Firstly, the inadequacy of the present artificial neural networks prediction model is analysed. Then a new cluster model based on non-teacher neural network is constructed according to the danger judgement standards given by experts. On this basis, by adopting the error square sum criterion and its algorithm, the corresponding prediction software is developed and applied in two working faces of Chaili Coal Mine. The forecasting result is importantly significant for the prevention of spontaneous fire. 4 refs., 1 fig., 1 tab.

A Computer-Based, Interactive Videodisc Job Aid and Expert System for Electron Beam Lithography Integration and Diagnostic Procedures.

Science.gov (United States)

Stevenson, Kimberly

This master's thesis describes the development of an expert system and interactive videodisc computer-based instructional job aid used for assisting in the integration of electron beam lithography devices. Comparable to all comprehensive training, expert system and job aid development require a criterion-referenced systems approach treatment to…

Proposal for a structured computed tomography report in the evaluation of pancreatic neoplasms based on expert opinions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lopes, Paulo Gustavo Maciel; Matsumoto, Carlos Alberto; Lobo, Edson José; D' Ippolito, Giuseppe, E-mail: pgmlopes87@gmail.com [Universidade Federal de São Paulo (EPM/UNIFESP), SP (Brazil). Escola de Medicina

2018-03-15

Objective: To create a structured computed tomography (CT) report for the systematic evaluation of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC), based on the opinions of clinicians and surgeons. Materials And Methods: This was a prospective study in which we applied a 21-item questionnaire to experts in pancreatic diseases in order to create a model of a structured abdominal CT report. The questionnaire addressed the location and size of PDACs, as well as their effects on adjacent structures and on the vasculature, together with metastases. We used a Likert scale to determine which of those parameters should be included in the model. Results: A total of 18 experts (12 surgeons and 6 clinicians) from 9 institutions completed the questionnaire. All of the experts agreed that the following (if present) should be described in the CT report on a PDAC: the degree of enhancement; the diameter and location of the lesion; pancreatic duct obstruction; biliary dilatation; pancreatic atrophy; liver metastases; peritoneal nodules; ascites; lymph node enlargement; and invasion of adjacent structures. More than 80% of the experts agreed that the report should also describe the relationship between the PDAC and the surrounding vasculature. Conclusion: We have developed a template for a CT report on patients with PDAC, based on the opinions of experts involved in the treatment of such patients. (author)

NESSUS/EXPERT - An expert system for probabilistic structural analysis methods

Science.gov (United States)

Millwater, H.; Palmer, K.; Fink, P.

1988-01-01

An expert system (NESSUS/EXPERT) is presented which provides assistance in using probabilistic structural analysis methods. NESSUS/EXPERT is an interactive menu-driven expert system that provides information to assist in the use of the probabilistic finite element code NESSUS/FEM and the fast probability integrator. NESSUS/EXPERT was developed with a combination of FORTRAN and CLIPS, a C language expert system tool, to exploit the strengths of each language.

THE ARCHITECTURE OF MULTI-COMPONENT DISTRIBUTED HYBRID EXPERT TRAINING SYSTEM

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Оleh Shevchuk

2016-09-01

Full Text Available The paper reports on the design of a multi-component architecture of distributed hybrid expert training system that can be used for the study of knowledge base of both internal and external expert systems and artificial intelligence systems that are distributed on Internet servers and other computer networks. Expert training system is based on three groups of basic principles: cybernetic, reflecting experience of previous research of systems of artificial intelligence, expert training systems; pedagogical, determining the principles, on which pedagogical design and use of expert training systems are based; psychological, determining preconditious and understanding of pupils psychics, on which the processes of design and use of expert training systems in professional training of future specialists are based.It accounts for the efficient training through the distributed knowledge via the Internet, which greatly increases the didactic capabilities of the system.

A Belief Rule Based Expert System to Assess Mental Disorder under Uncertainty

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hossain, Mohammad Shahadat; Afif Monrat, Ahmed; Hasan, Mamun

2016-01-01

to ignorance, incompleteness, and randomness. So, a belief rule-based expert system (BRBES) has been designed and developed with the capability of handling the uncertainties mentioned. Evidential reasoning works as the inference engine and the belief rule base as the knowledge representation schema......Mental disorder is a change of mental or behavioral pattern that causes sufferings and impairs the ability to function in ordinary life. In psychopathology, the assessment methods of mental disorder contain various types of uncertainties associated with signs and symptoms. This study identifies...

Expert robots in nuclear plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Byrd, J.S.; Fisher, J.J.; DeVries, K.R.; Martin, T.P.

1987-01-01

Expert robots enhance a safety and operations in nuclear plants. E.I. du Pont de Nemours and Company, Savannah River Laboratory, is developing expert mobile robots for deployment in nuclear applications at the Savannah River Plant. Knowledge-based expert systems are being evaluated to simplify operator control, to assist in navigation and manipulation functions, and to analyze sensory information. Development work using two research vehicles is underway to demonstrate semiautonomous, intelligence, expert robot system operation in process areas. A description of the mechanical equipment, control systems, and operating modes is presented, including the integration of onboard sensors. A control hierarchy that uses modest computational methods is being used to allow mobile robots to autonomously navigate and perform tasks in known environments without the need for large computer systems

Expert robots in nuclear plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Byrd, J.S.; Fisher, J.J.; DeVries, K.R.; Martin, T.P.

1987-01-01

Expert robots will enhance safety and operations in nuclear plants. E. I. du Pont de Nemours and Company, Savannah River Laboratory, is developing expert mobile robots for deployment in nuclear applications at the Savannah River Plant. Knowledge-based expert systems are being evaluated to simplify operator control, to assist in navigation and manipulation functions, and to analyze sensory information. Development work using two research vehicles is underway to demonstrate semiautonomous, intelligent, expert robot system operation in process areas. A description of the mechanical equipment, control systems, and operating modes is presented, including the integration of onboard sensors. A control hierarchy that uses modest computational methods is being used to allow mobile robots to autonomously navigate and perform tasks in known environments without the need for large computer systems

Paradigms and building tools for real-time expert systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Behrens, U.; Flasinski, M.; Hagge, L.; Ohrenberg, K.

1994-01-01

An expert system is a software which can simulate the problem solving behavior of a human expert. The rule-based paradigm is chosen to describe the different aspects involved in expert system development. Differences between expert systems and common procedural or object-oriented programs are investigated. Expert system shells are introduced as a building tool for expert systems, together with some guidelines on the evaluation of such shells. A discussion of special needs for real-time expert system development concludes the paper

A Belief Rule-Based Expert System to Assess Bronchiolitis Suspicion from Signs and Symptoms Under Uncertainty

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Karim, Rezuan; Hossain, Mohammad Shahadat; Khalid, Md. Saifuddin

2017-01-01

developed generic belief rule-based inference methodology by using evidential reasoning (RIMER) acts as the inference engine of this BRBES while belief rule base as the knowledge representation schema. The knowledge base of the system is constructed by using real patient data and expert opinion from...

A method of knowledge base verification for nuclear power plant expert systems using extended Petri Nets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kwon, I. W.; Seong, P. H.

1996-01-01

The adoption of expert systems mainly as operator supporting systems is becoming increasingly popular as the control algorithms of system become more and more sophisticated and complicated. The verification phase of knowledge base is an important part for developing reliable expert systems, especially in nuclear industry. Although several strategies or tools have been developed to perform potential error checking, they often neglect the reliability of verification methods. Because a Petri net provides a uniform mathematical formalization of knowledge base, it has been employed for knowledge base verification. In this work, we devise and suggest an automated tool, called COKEP(Checker of Knowledge base using Extended Petri net), for detecting incorrectness, inconsistency, and incompleteness in a knowledge base. The scope of the verification problem is expended to chained errors, unlike previous studies that assume error incidence to be limited to rule pairs only. In addition, we consider certainty factor in checking, because most of knowledge bases have certainly factors. 8 refs,. 2 figs,. 4 tabs. (author)

IDEA-system - a new computer based expert system for incorporation monitoring

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Doerfel, H.

2005-01-01

Full text: There is an increasing number of national and international recommendations and guidelines for incorporation monitoring (ICRP Publications, IAEA Safety Reports, ISO Standards, etc.). These recommendations cover different phases of incorporation monitoring and they provide general requirements for the measuring techniques, the monitoring procedures and for the procedures to evaluate intakes and doses from the monitoring results. There is, however, still a strong need for giving guidance to the dosimetrists on how to apply all the regulations properly. Thus, the EU project IDEAS was launched in order to provide general guidelines for the assessment of internal dose from incorporation monitoring data. These guidelines have recently been discussed in a virtual workshop on the internet (www.ideas-workshop.de) and they are being considered by ICRP for possible adoption in the near future. Recently, in the Karlsruhe Research Centre, a computer-based expert system has been developed for assisting dosimetrists in applying the relevant recommendations and guidelines for incorporation monitoring and internal dosimetry. The expert system gives guidance to the user with respect to: planning of monitoring (estimation of potential exposures, decision on the requirements of monitoring, definition of optimum measuring techniques and monitoring intervals); performing routine and special monitoring and evaluation of primary monitoring results. The evaluation of primary monitoring results is done according to the IDEAS guidelines in a threestage procedure according to the expected level of exposure (E = committed effective dose): standard evaluation with default or site specific parameter values (E 6 mSv). With these well-defined procedures the expert system follows the aim, that all recommendations and guidelines are applied properly and thus: internal exposures of more than 1 mSv are very likely to be detected in all situations; the results in terms of committed effective

Expert systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Haldy, P.A.

1988-01-01

The definitions of the terms 'artificial intelligence' and 'expert systems', the methodology, areas of employment and limits of expert systems are discussed. The operation of an expert system is described, especially the presentation and organization of knowledge as well as interference and control. Methods and tools for expert system development are presented and their application in nuclear energy are briefly addressed. 7 figs., 2 tabs., 6 refs

An expert system in medical diagnosis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Raboanary, R.; Raoelina Andriambololona; Soffer, J.; Raboanary, J.

2001-01-01

Health problem is still a crucial one in some countries. It is so important that it becomes a major handicap in economic and social development. In order to solve this problem, we have conceived an expert system that we called MITSABO, which means TO HEAL, to help the physicians to diagnose tropical diseases. It is clear that by extending the data base and the knowledge base, we can extend the application of the software to more general areas. In our expert system, we used the concept of 'self organization' of neural network based on the determination of the eigenvalues and the eigenvectors associated to the correlation matrix XX t . The projection of the data on the two first eigenvectors gives a classification of the diseases which is used to get a first approach in the diagnosis of the patient. This diagnosis is improved by using an expert system which is built from the knowledge base.

Using Fuzzy Logic to Increase the Accuracy of E-Commerce Risk Assessment Based on an Expert System

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

H. Beheshti

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Strong adaptive control can be exercised even without access to accurate data inputs. Such control is possible through fuzzy mathematics, which is a meta-collection of Boolean logic principles that imply relative accuracy. Fuzzy mathematics find applications in e-commerce, where different risk analysis methods are available for risk assessment and estimation. Such approaches can be quantitative or qualitative, depending on the type of examined data. Quantitative methods are grounded in statistics, whereas qualitative methods are based on expert judgments and fuzzy set theory. Given that qualitative methods are very subjective and deal with vague or inaccurate data, fuzzy logic can be used to extract useful information from data inaccuracies. In this study, a model based on the opinions of e-commerce security experts was designed and implemented by using fuzzy expert systems and MATLAB. A case study was conducted to validate the effectiveness of the Model.

Accident diagnosis system based on real-time decision tree expert system

Science.gov (United States)

Nicolau, Andressa dos S.; Augusto, João P. da S. C.; Schirru, Roberto

2017-06-01

Safety is one of the most studied topics when referring to power stations. For that reason, sensors and alarms develop an important role in environmental and human protection. When abnormal event happens, it triggers a chain of alarms that must be, somehow, checked by the control room operators. In this case, diagnosis support system can help operators to accurately identify the possible root-cause of the problem in short time. In this article, we present a computational model of a generic diagnose support system based on artificial intelligence, that was applied on the dataset of two real power stations: Angra1 Nuclear Power Plant and Santo Antônio Hydroelectric Plant. The proposed system processes all the information logged in the sequence of events before a shutdown signal using the expert's knowledge inputted into an expert system indicating the chain of events, from the shutdown signal to its root-cause. The results of both applications showed that the support system is a potential tool to help the control room operators identify abnormal events, as accidents and consequently increase the safety.

Identifying influenza-like illness presentation from unstructured general practice clinical narrative using a text classifier rule-based expert system versus a clinical expert.

Science.gov (United States)

MacRae, Jayden; Love, Tom; Baker, Michael G; Dowell, Anthony; Carnachan, Matthew; Stubbe, Maria; McBain, Lynn

2015-10-06

We designed and validated a rule-based expert system to identify influenza like illness (ILI) from routinely recorded general practice clinical narrative to aid a larger retrospective research study into the impact of the 2009 influenza pandemic in New Zealand. Rules were assessed using pattern matching heuristics on routine clinical narrative. The system was trained using data from 623 clinical encounters and validated using a clinical expert as a gold standard against a mutually exclusive set of 901 records. We calculated a 98.2 % specificity and 90.2 % sensitivity across an ILI incidence of 12.4 % measured against clinical expert classification. Peak problem list identification of ILI by clinical coding in any month was 9.2 % of all detected ILI presentations. Our system addressed an unusual problem domain for clinical narrative classification; using notational, unstructured, clinician entered information in a community care setting. It performed well compared with other approaches and domains. It has potential applications in real-time surveillance of disease, and in assisted problem list coding for clinicians. Our system identified ILI presentation with sufficient accuracy for use at a population level in the wider research study. The peak coding of 9.2 % illustrated the need for automated coding of unstructured narrative in our study.

Hierarchical Model of Assessing and Selecting Experts

Science.gov (United States)

Chernysheva, T. Y.; Korchuganova, M. A.; Borisov, V. V.; Min'kov, S. L.

2016-04-01

Revealing experts’ competences is a multi-objective issue. Authors of the paper deal with competence assessing methods of experts seen as objects, and criteria of qualities. An analytic hierarchy process of assessing and ranking experts is offered, which is based on paired comparison matrices and scores, quality parameters are taken into account as well. Calculation and assessment of experts is given as an example.

Accuracy and interobserver agreement between MR-non-expert radiologists and MR-experts in reading MRI for suspected appendicitis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Leeuwenburgh, Marjolein M.N., E-mail: m.m.leeuwenburgh@amc.uva.nl [Department of Surgery, Academic Medical Center, University of Amsterdam (Netherlands); Department of Radiology, Academic Medical Center, University of Amsterdam (Netherlands); Wiarda, Bart M. [Department of Radiology, Alkmaar Medical Center, Alkmaar (Netherlands); Jensch, Sebastiaan [Department of Radiology, Sint Lucas Andreas Hospital, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Wouter van Es, H. [Department of Radiology, Sint Antonius Hospital, Nieuwegein (Netherlands); Stockmann, Hein B.A.C. [Department of Surgery, Kennemer Gasthuis, Haarlem (Netherlands); Gratama, Jan Willem C. [Department of Radiology, Gelre Hospitals, Apeldoorn (Netherlands); Cobben, Lodewijk P.J. [Department of Radiology, Haaglanden Medical Center, Leidschendam (Netherlands); Bossuyt, Patrick M.M. [Department of Clinical Epidemiology, Academic Medical Center, University of Amsterdam (Netherlands); Boermeester, Marja A. [Department of Surgery, Academic Medical Center, University of Amsterdam (Netherlands); Stoker, Jaap [Department of Radiology, Academic Medical Center, University of Amsterdam (Netherlands)

2014-01-15

Objective: To compare accuracy and interobserver agreement between radiologists with limited experience in the evaluation of abdominal MRI (non-experts), and radiologists with longer MR reading experience (experts), in reading MRI in patients with suspected appendicitis. Methods: MR imaging was performed in 223 adult patients with suspected appendicitis and read independently by two members of a team of eight MR-inexperienced radiologists, who were trained with 100 MR examinations previous to this study (non-expert reading). Expert reading was performed by two radiologists with a larger abdominal MR experience (>500 examinations) in consensus. A final diagnosis was assigned after three months based on all available information, except MRI findings. We estimated MRI sensitivity and specificity for appendicitis and for all urgent diagnoses separately. Interobserver agreement was evaluated using kappa statistics. Results: Urgent diagnoses were assigned to 147 of 223 patients; 117 had appendicitis. Sensitivity for appendicitis was 0.89 by MR-non-expert radiologists and 0.97 in MR-expert reading (p = 0.01). Specificity was 0.83 for MR-non-experts versus 0.93 for MR-expert reading (p = 0.002). MR-experts and MR-non-experts agreed on appendicitis in 89% of cases (kappa 0.78). Accuracy in detecting urgent diagnoses was significantly lower in MR-non-experts compared to MR-expert reading: sensitivity 0.84 versus 0.95 (p < 0.001) and specificity 0.71 versus 0.82 (p = 0.03), respectively. Agreement on urgent diagnoses was 83% (kappa 0.63). Conclusion: MR-non-experts have sufficient sensitivity in reading MRI in patients with suspected appendicitis, with good agreement with MR-expert reading, but accuracy of MR-expert reading was higher.

Accuracy and interobserver agreement between MR-non-expert radiologists and MR-experts in reading MRI for suspected appendicitis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Leeuwenburgh, Marjolein M.N.; Wiarda, Bart M.; Jensch, Sebastiaan; Wouter van Es, H.; Stockmann, Hein B.A.C.; Gratama, Jan Willem C.; Cobben, Lodewijk P.J.; Bossuyt, Patrick M.M.; Boermeester, Marja A.; Stoker, Jaap

2014-01-01

Objective: To compare accuracy and interobserver agreement between radiologists with limited experience in the evaluation of abdominal MRI (non-experts), and radiologists with longer MR reading experience (experts), in reading MRI in patients with suspected appendicitis. Methods: MR imaging was performed in 223 adult patients with suspected appendicitis and read independently by two members of a team of eight MR-inexperienced radiologists, who were trained with 100 MR examinations previous to this study (non-expert reading). Expert reading was performed by two radiologists with a larger abdominal MR experience (>500 examinations) in consensus. A final diagnosis was assigned after three months based on all available information, except MRI findings. We estimated MRI sensitivity and specificity for appendicitis and for all urgent diagnoses separately. Interobserver agreement was evaluated using kappa statistics. Results: Urgent diagnoses were assigned to 147 of 223 patients; 117 had appendicitis. Sensitivity for appendicitis was 0.89 by MR-non-expert radiologists and 0.97 in MR-expert reading (p = 0.01). Specificity was 0.83 for MR-non-experts versus 0.93 for MR-expert reading (p = 0.002). MR-experts and MR-non-experts agreed on appendicitis in 89% of cases (kappa 0.78). Accuracy in detecting urgent diagnoses was significantly lower in MR-non-experts compared to MR-expert reading: sensitivity 0.84 versus 0.95 (p < 0.001) and specificity 0.71 versus 0.82 (p = 0.03), respectively. Agreement on urgent diagnoses was 83% (kappa 0.63). Conclusion: MR-non-experts have sufficient sensitivity in reading MRI in patients with suspected appendicitis, with good agreement with MR-expert reading, but accuracy of MR-expert reading was higher

Rule Based Expert System for Monitoring Real Time Drug Supply in Hospital Using Radio Frequency Identification Technology

Science.gov (United States)

Driandanu, Galih; Surarso, Bayu; Suryono

2018-02-01

A radio frequency identification (RFID) has obtained increasing attention with the emergence of various applications. This study aims to examine the implementation of rule based expert system supported by RFID technology into a monitoring information system of drug supply in a hospital. This research facilitates in monitoring the real time drug supply by using data sample from the hospital pharmacy. This system able to identify and count the number of drug and provide warning and report in real time. the conclusion is the rule based expert system and RFID technology can facilitate the performance in monitoring the drug supply quickly and precisely.

Impact of Vocational Interests, Previous Academic Experience, Gender and Age on Situational Judgement Test Performance

Science.gov (United States)

Schripsema, Nienke R.; van Trigt, Anke M.; Borleffs, Jan C. C.; Cohen-Schotanus, Janke

2017-01-01

Situational Judgement Tests (SJTs) are increasingly implemented in medical school admissions. In this paper, we investigate the effects of vocational interests, previous academic experience, gender and age on SJT performance. The SJT was part of the selection process for the Bachelor's degree programme in Medicine at University of Groningen, the…

Expert system for liquid low-level waste management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ferrada, J.J.

1992-01-01

An expert system prototype has been developed to support system analysis activities at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) for waste management tasks. This expert system will aid in prioritizing radioactive waste streams for treatment and disposal by evaluating the severity and treatability of the problem as well as the final waste form. The objectives of the expert system development included: (1) collecting information on process treatment technologies for liquid low-level waste (LLLW) that can be incorporated in the knowledge base of the expert system, and (2) producing a prototype that suggests processes and disposal technologies for the ORNL LLLW system. The concept under which the expert system has been designed is integration of knowledge. There are many sources of knowledge (data bases, text files, simulation programs, etc.) that an expert would regularly consult in order to solve a problem of liquid waste management. The expert would normally know how to extract the information from these different sources of knowledge. The general scope of this project would be to include as much pertinent information as possible within the boundaries of the expert system. As a result, the user, who may not be an expert in every aspect of liquid waste management, may be able to apply the content of the information to a specific waste problem. This paper gives the methodological steps to develop the expert system under this general framework

Which Dimensions of Patient-Centeredness Matter? - Results of a Web-Based Expert Delphi Survey.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jördis M Zill

Full Text Available Present models and definitions of patient-centeredness revealed a lack of conceptual clarity. Based on a prior systematic literature review, we developed an integrative model with 15 dimensions of patient-centeredness. The aims of this study were to 1 validate, and 2 prioritize these dimensions.A two-round web-based Delphi study was conducted. 297 international experts were invited to participate. In round one they were asked to 1 give an individual rating on a nine-point-scale on relevance and clarity of the dimensions, 2 add missing dimensions, and 3 prioritize the dimensions. In round two, experts received feedback about the results of round one and were asked to reflect and re-rate their own results. The cut-off for the validation of a dimension was a median < 7 on one of the criteria.105 experts participated in round one and 71 in round two. In round one, one new dimension was suggested and included for discussion in round two. In round two, this dimension did not reach sufficient ratings to be included in the model. Eleven dimensions reached a median ≥ 7 on both criteria (relevance and clarity. Four dimensions had a median < 7 on one or both criteria. The five dimensions rated as most important were: patient as a unique person, patient involvement in care, patient information, clinician-patient communication and patient empowerment.11 out of the 15 dimensions have been validated through experts' ratings. Further research on the four dimensions that received insufficient ratings is recommended. The priority order of the dimensions can help researchers and clinicians to focus on the most important dimensions of patient-centeredness. Overall, the model provides a useful framework that can be used in the development of measures, interventions, and medical education curricula, as well as the adoption of a new perspective in health policy.

The impact of psychological stress on men's judgements of female body size.

Science.gov (United States)

Swami, Viren; Tovée, Martin J

2012-01-01

Previous work has suggested that the experience of psychological stress may influence physical attractiveness ideals, but most evidence in favour of this hypothesis remains archival. The objective of this study was to experimentally investigate the impact of stress on men's judgements of female body size. Men were randomly assigned to either an experimental group, in which they took part in a task that heightened stress (experimental group, n = 41) or in which they did not take part in such a task (control group, n = 40). Both groups rated the attractiveness of female bodies varying in size from emaciated to obese, completed a measure of appetite sensation, and had their body mass indices (BMIs) measured. Between-groups analyses showed that the experimental group was matched with the control group in terms of mean age, BMI, and appetite sensation. Further analyses showed that men in the experimental group rated a significantly heavier female body size as maximally attractive than the control group. Men in the experimental group also rated heavier female bodies as more attractive and idealised a wider range of female figures than did the control group. This study found that the experience of stress was associated with a preference among men for heavier female body sizes. These results indicate that human attractiveness judgements are sensitive to variations in local ecologies and reflect adaptive strategies for dealing with changing environmental conditions.

A methodology for uncertainty quantification in quantitative technology valuation based on expert elicitation

Science.gov (United States)

Akram, Muhammad Farooq Bin

uncertainty propagation. Non-linear behavior in technology interactions is captured through expert elicitation based technology synergy matrices (TSM). Proposed TSMs increase the fidelity of current technology forecasting methods by including higher order technology interactions. A test case for quantification of epistemic uncertainty on a large scale problem of combined cycle power generation system was selected. A detailed multidisciplinary modeling and simulation environment was adopted for this problem. Results have shown that evidence theory based technique provides more insight on the uncertainties arising from incomplete information or lack of knowledge as compared to deterministic or probability theory methods. Margin analysis was also carried out for both the techniques. A detailed description of TSMs and their usage in conjunction with technology impact matrices and technology compatibility matrices is discussed. Various combination methods are also proposed for higher order interactions, which can be applied according to the expert opinion or historical data. The introduction of technology synergy matrix enabled capturing the higher order technology interactions, and improvement in predicted system performance.

Simulation-based expert system for nuclear reactor control and diagnostics. Progress report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, J.C.; Martin, W.R.

1986-01-01

This research concerns the development of artificial intelligence (AI) techniques suitable for application to the diagnostics and control of nuclear power plant systems. The overall objective of the current effort is to build a prototype simulation-based expert system for diagnosing accidents in nuclear reactors. The system is being designed to analyze plant data heuristically using fuzzy logic to form a set of hypotheses about a particular transient. Hypothesis testing, fault magnitude estimation and transient analysis is performed using simulation programs to model plant behavior. An adaptive learning technique has been developed for achieving accurate simulations of plant dynamics using low-order physical models of plant components. The results of the diagnostics and simulation analysis of the plant transient are to be analyzed by an expert system for final diagnoses and control guidance. To date, significant progress has been made toward achieving the primary goals of this project. Based on a critical safety functions approach, an overall design for the nuclear plant expert system has been developed. The methodology for performing diagnostic reasoning on plant signals has been developed and the algorithms implemented and tested. A methodology for utilizing the information contained in the physical models of plant components has also been developed. This work included the derivation of a unique Kalman filtering algorithm for using power plant data to systematically improve on-line simulations through the judicious adjustment of key model parameters. A few simulation models of key plant components have been developed and implemented to demonstrate the method on a realistic accident scenario. The chosen transient is a loss of feed flow exasperated by a stuck open relief valve, similar to the initiating event of the Three Mile Island Unit 2 accident in 1979

What causes breast cancer? A systematic review of causal attributions among breast cancer survivors and how these compare to expert-endorsed risk factors.

Science.gov (United States)

Dumalaon-Canaria, Jo Anne; Hutchinson, Amanda D; Prichard, Ivanka; Wilson, Carlene

2014-07-01

The aim of this paper was to review published research that analyzed causal attributions for breast cancer among women previously diagnosed with breast cancer. These attributions were compared with risk factors identified by published scientific evidence in order to determine the level of agreement between cancer survivors' attributions and expert opinion. A comprehensive search for articles, published between 1982 and 2012, reporting studies on causal attributions for breast cancer among patients and survivors was undertaken. Of 5,135 potentially relevant articles, 22 studies met the inclusion criteria. Two additional articles were sourced from reference lists of included studies. Results indicated a consistent belief among survivors that their own breast cancer could be attributed to family history, environmental factors, stress, fate, or chance. Lifestyle factors were less frequently identified, despite expert health information highlighting the importance of these factors in controlling and modifying cancer risk. This review demonstrated that misperceptions about the contribution of modifiable lifestyle factors to the risk of breast cancer have remained largely unchanged over the past 30 years. The findings of this review indicate that beliefs about the causes of breast cancer among affected women are not always consistent with the judgement of experts. Breast cancer survivors did not regularly identify causal factors supported by expert consensus such as age, physical inactivity, breast density, alcohol consumption, and reproductive history. Further research examining psychological predictors of attributions and the impact of cancer prevention messages on adjustment and well-being of cancer survivors is warranted.

Optimizing the Timing of Expert Feedback During Simulation-Based Spaced Practice of Endourologic Skills.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Jason Young; McDougall, Elspeth M; Lineberry, Matthew; Tekian, Ara

2016-08-01

Provision of expert feedback is widely acknowledged to be an essential component of simulation-based training. However, little is known about the most effective and efficient ways to provide feedback to novices. Optimizing the timing of expert feedback may improve outcomes while reducing resource requirements. The main objective of this study was to determine the impact of providing early versus late expert feedback to novice learners engaged in a flexible ureteroscopy (fURS) training curriculum. Senior medical students were recruited to participate in this study. Each student participated in a comprehensive fURS training curriculum that included 3 deliberate, independent practice sessions. Baseline and postcourse fURS skill was assessed for each student using a standardized fURS test task. Each student was randomized to either an early feedback group (EFG) or late feedback group (LFG). The EFG participants were provided expert feedback immediately after the baseline skill test, whereas LFG participants were given feedback before their final deliberate, independent practice session. Eighteen senior medical students completed the study (9 EFG and 9 LFG participants). There were no discernible demographic differences between the groups at baseline. When controlling for pretest performance, early rather than late feedback was associated with both shorter postcourse time to completion of the task (19.2 vs. 21.5 minutes, P feedback when learning a novel skill. Further study is required.

Assessing socioeconomic vulnerability to dengue fever in Cali, Colombia: statistical vs expert-based modeling.

Science.gov (United States)

Hagenlocher, Michael; Delmelle, Eric; Casas, Irene; Kienberger, Stefan

2013-08-14

As a result of changes in climatic conditions and greater resistance to insecticides, many regions across the globe, including Colombia, have been facing a resurgence of vector-borne diseases, and dengue fever in particular. Timely information on both (1) the spatial distribution of the disease, and (2) prevailing vulnerabilities of the population are needed to adequately plan targeted preventive intervention. We propose a methodology for the spatial assessment of current socioeconomic vulnerabilities to dengue fever in Cali, a tropical urban environment of Colombia. Based on a set of socioeconomic and demographic indicators derived from census data and ancillary geospatial datasets, we develop a spatial approach for both expert-based and purely statistical-based modeling of current vulnerability levels across 340 neighborhoods of the city using a Geographic Information System (GIS). The results of both approaches are comparatively evaluated by means of spatial statistics. A web-based approach is proposed to facilitate the visualization and the dissemination of the output vulnerability index to the community. The statistical and the expert-based modeling approach exhibit a high concordance, globally, and spatially. The expert-based approach indicates a slightly higher vulnerability mean (0.53) and vulnerability median (0.56) across all neighborhoods, compared to the purely statistical approach (mean = 0.48; median = 0.49). Both approaches reveal that high values of vulnerability tend to cluster in the eastern, north-eastern, and western part of the city. These are poor neighborhoods with high percentages of young (i.e., local expertise, statistical approaches could be used, with caution. By decomposing identified vulnerability "hotspots" into their underlying factors, our approach provides valuable information on both (1) the location of neighborhoods, and (2) vulnerability factors that should be given priority in the context of targeted intervention

A knowledge-base verification of NPP expert systems using extended Petri nets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kwon, Il Won; Seong, Poong Hyun

1995-01-01

The verification phase of knowledge base is an important part for developing reliable expert systems, especially in nuclear industry. Although several strategies or tools have been developed to perform potential error checking, they often neglect the reliability of verification methods. Because a Petri net provides a uniform mathematical formalization of knowledge base, it has been employed for knowledge base verification. In this work, we devise and suggest an automated tool, called COKEP (Checker Of Knowledge base using Extended Petri net), for detecting incorrectness, inconsistency, and incompleteness in a knowledge base. The scope of the verification problem is expanded to chained errors, unlike previous studies that assumed error incidence to be limited to rule pairs only. In addition, we consider certainty factor in checking, because most of knowledge bases have certainty factors

The Effect of Multimedia Based Learning in Chemistry Teaching and Learning on Students’ Self-Regulated Learning

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Erfan Priyambodo

2014-11-01

Full Text Available In recent years, the uses of Multimedia Based Learning (MBL in classroom instruction increased widely. Overall, this implementation aims to improve students’ motivation and also their learning outcomes. This study was answering the effect of MBL toward students’ Self-Regulated Learning (SRL in chemistry teaching and learning. The experiment was conducted in class XI of senior high school in Yogyakarta. Researchers create some computer based media for chemistry materials and continued with expert judgement of the media. Students’ data SRL were measured using validated questionnaire. The questionnaire consists of three components, i.e. metacognitive, motivation and behavior. The results showed that there was significant differences in SRL of students before and after participating in chemistry teaching and learning which applying MBL.

Expert System Development on On-line Measurement of Sewage Treatment Based Process

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jianjun QIN

2014-02-01

Full Text Available This article puts forward a solution in which an instrument on-line automatic measurement and expert system process are optimized according to the complexity and great process dynamics of sewage treatment process. Firstly modeling has been set up with configuration sewage treatment process in which the process has been integrated into the computer software environment. Secondly certain number of water quality automatic monitoring instruments and sensor probes are set in the reaction tanks according to the needs of process changes and management. The data information acquired can be displayed and recorded at the real time. A human-machine integration expert system featuring computer automation management is developed for the base by one-off method thus to realize the intelligent and unmanned management. The advantages brought about from it can fill up the inexperience of the on-site management personnel and solve the contradiction between the water quality dynamics and difficulty in the process adjustment.

Clarification of Safe Delivery by Iranian Experts Based on Clinical Governance: A Qualitative Study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Forozun Olfati

2015-10-01

Full Text Available Objective:To clarify the principles of a safe delivery based on Clinical Governance Criteria, as recommended by the pertinent experts.Materials and methods:The current study was part of a qualitative research conducted by content analysis method in 2013 and purposive sampling, performing 24 in-depth interviews based on semi-structured questions and analyzed using thematic content analysis. The participants in this research included midwives, obstetricians, managers, and hospital doctors. The data were under continuous consideration and comparative analysis in order to achieve data saturation.Results:The main concepts derived from interpretations of the pertinent experts include: Patient & Public involvement; Risk Management; Education; Clinical efficiency; Clinical audit; Personnel & Management.Conclusion:In a safe delivery, there is a vicious cycle of causes the elimination of which is only possible through benchmarking patterns that attend to most aspects of a safe delivery.Changes to services require utilization of appropriate change management strategies.

A comparison of CLIPS- and LISP-based approaches to the development of a real-time expert system

Science.gov (United States)

Frainier, R.; Groleau, N.; Bhatnagar, R.; Lam, C.; Compton, M.; Colombano, S.; Lai, S.; Szolovits, P.; Manahan, M.; Statler, I.

1990-01-01

This paper describes an ongoing expert system development effort started in 1988 which is evaluating both CLIPS- and LISP- based approaches. The expert system is being developed to a project schedule and is planned for flight on Space Shuttle Mission SLS-2 in 1992. The expert system will help astronauts do the best possible science for a vestibular physiology experiment already scheduled for that mission. The system gathers and reduces data from the experiment, flags 'interesting' results, and proposes changes in the experiment both to exploit the in-flight observations and to stay within the time allowed by Mission Control for the experiment. These tasks must all be performed in real time. Two Apple Macintosh computers are used. The CLIPS- and LISP- based environments are layered above the Macintosh computer Operating System. The 'CLIPS-based' environment includes CLIPS and HyperCard. The LlSP-based environment includes Common LISP, Parmenides (a frame system), and FRuleKit (a rule system). Important evaluation factors include ease of programming, performance against real-time requirements, usability by an astronaut, robustness, and ease of maintenance. Current results on the factors of ease of programming, performance against real-time requirements, and ease of maintenance are discussed.

Expert software for accident identification

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dobnikar, M.; Nemec, T.; Muehleisen, A.

2003-01-01

Each type of an accident in a Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) causes immediately after the start of the accident variations of physical parameters that are typical for that type of the accident thus enabling its identification. Examples of these parameter are: decrease of reactor coolant system pressure, increase of radiation level in the containment, increase of pressure in the containment. An expert software enabling a fast preliminary identification of the type of the accident in Krsko NPP has been developed. As input data selected typical parameters from Emergency Response Data System (ERDS) of the Krsko NPP are used. Based on these parameters the expert software identifies the type of the accident and also provides the user with appropriate references (past analyses and other documentation of such an accident). The expert software is to be used as a support tool by an expert team that forms in case of an emergency at Slovenian Nuclear Safety Administration (SNSA) with the task to determine the cause of the accident, its most probable scenario and the source term. The expert software should provide initial identification of the event, while the final one is still to be made after appropriate assessment of the event by the expert group considering possibility of non-typical events, multiple causes, initial conditions, influences of operators' actions etc. The expert software can be also used as an educational/training tool and even as a simple database of available accident analyses. (author)

Expert systems as decision tools

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Scott, C.K.

1989-01-01

The feasibility of using expert systems as an aid in regulatory compliance functions has been investigated. A literature review was carried out to identify applications of expert systems to regulatory affairs. A bibliography of the small literature on such applications was prepared. A prototype system, ARIES, was developed to demonstrate the use of an expert system as an aid to a Project Officer in assuring compliance with licence requirements. The system runs on a personal computer with a graphical interface. Extensive use is made of hypertext to link interrelated rules and requirements as well as to provide an explanation facility. Based on the performance of ARIES the development of a field version is recommended

Expert system. Based advisory system for the operator's mental activities support

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gieci, A.; Macko, J.; Mosny, J.

2000-01-01

The operator's mental activity is the most important part of his work. A processing of a large amount of the information by the operator is possible only if he/she possesses appropriate cognitive skills. To facilitate the novice's acquisition of the experienced operator's cognitive skills of the decision-making process a special type of the expert system was developed. The cognitive engineering's models and problem-solving methodology constitutes the basis of this expert system. The article gives an account of the prototype of the mentioned expert system developed to aid the whole mental activity of the nuclear power plant operator during his decision-making process. (author)

Adaptive capture of expert knowledge

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Barrett, C.L.; Jones, R.D. [Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States); Hand, Un Kyong [Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States)]|[US Navy (United States)

1995-05-01

A method is introduced that can directly acquire knowledge-engineered, rule-based logic in an adaptive network. This adaptive representation of the rule system can then replace the rule system in simulated intelligent agents and thereby permit further performance-based adaptation of the rule system. The approach described provides both weight-fitting network adaptation and potentially powerful rule mutation and selection mechanisms. Nonlinear terms are generated implicitly in the mutation process through the emergent interaction of multiple linear terms. By this method it is possible to acquire nonlinear relations that exist in the training data without addition of hidden layers or imposition of explicit nonlinear terms in the network. We smoothed and captured a set of expert rules with an adaptive network. The motivation for this was to (1) realize a speed advantage over traditional rule-based simulations; (2) have variability in the intelligent objects not possible by rule-based systems but provided by adaptive systems: and (3) maintain the understandability of rule-based simulations. A set of binary rules was smoothed and converted into a simple set of arithmetic statements, where continuous, non-binary rules are permitted. A neural network, called the expert network, was developed to capture this rule set, which it was able to do with zero error. The expert network is also capable of learning a nonmonotonic term without a hidden layer. The trained network in feedforward operation is fast running, compact, and traceable to the rule base.

Expert opinion vs. empirical evidence

OpenAIRE

Herman, Rod A; Raybould, Alan

2014-01-01

Expert opinion is often sought by government regulatory agencies when there is insufficient empirical evidence to judge the safety implications of a course of action. However, it can be reckless to continue following expert opinion when a preponderance of evidence is amassed that conflicts with this opinion. Factual evidence should always trump opinion in prioritizing the information that is used to guide regulatory policy. Evidence-based medicine has seen a dramatic upturn in recent years sp...

Liquid low level waste management expert system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ferrada, J.J.; Abraham, T.J.; Jackson, J.R.

1991-01-01

An expert system has been developed as part of a new initiative for the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) systems analysis program. This expert system will aid in prioritizing radioactive waste streams for treatment and disposal by evaluating the severity and treatability of the problem, as well as the final waste form. The objectives of the expert system development included: (1) collecting information on process treatment technologies for liquid low-level waste (LLLW) that can be incorporated in the knowledge base of the expert system, and (2) producing a prototype that suggests processes and disposal technologies for the ORNL LLLW system. 4 refs., 9 figs

Tropospheric ozone. Formation, properties, effects. Expert opinion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Elstner, E.F.

1996-01-01

The formation and dispersion of tropospheric ozone are discussed only marginally in this expert opinion; the key interest is in the effects of ground level ozone on plants, animals, and humans. The expert opinion is based on an analysis of the available scientific publications. (orig./MG) [de

Anticipation and visual search behaviour in expert soccer goalkeepers

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Savelsbergh, G.J.P.; van der Kamp, J.; Williams, A.M.; Ward, P.

2005-01-01

A novel methodological approach is presented to examine the visual search behaviours employed by expert goalkeepers during simulated penalty kick situations in soccer. Expert soccer goalkeepers were classified as successful or unsuccessful based on their performance on a film-based test of

The impact of psychological stress on men's judgements of female body size.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Viren Swami

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Previous work has suggested that the experience of psychological stress may influence physical attractiveness ideals, but most evidence in favour of this hypothesis remains archival. The objective of this study was to experimentally investigate the impact of stress on men's judgements of female body size. METHODS: Men were randomly assigned to either an experimental group, in which they took part in a task that heightened stress (experimental group, n = 41 or in which they did not take part in such a task (control group, n = 40. Both groups rated the attractiveness of female bodies varying in size from emaciated to obese, completed a measure of appetite sensation, and had their body mass indices (BMIs measured. RESULTS: Between-groups analyses showed that the experimental group was matched with the control group in terms of mean age, BMI, and appetite sensation. Further analyses showed that men in the experimental group rated a significantly heavier female body size as maximally attractive than the control group. Men in the experimental group also rated heavier female bodies as more attractive and idealised a wider range of female figures than did the control group. CONCLUSION: This study found that the experience of stress was associated with a preference among men for heavier female body sizes. These results indicate that human attractiveness judgements are sensitive to variations in local ecologies and reflect adaptive strategies for dealing with changing environmental conditions.

Scientific evidence and the toxic tort. A socio-legal study of the issues, expert evidence and judgement in Reay and Hope v. British Nuclear Fuels plc

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Harrison, R.J.

1999-01-01

Providing a socio-legal analysis of the issues, expert evidence and judgment in Reay and Hope v BNFL plc., the thesis offers an insight into the complexity of the toxic tort. Starting with an overview of the history of Sellafield, the thesis reflects on the scientific and epidemiological concerns surrounding the link between childhood cancer and nuclear installations. Drawing on scientific knowledge and epistemological considerations, the thesis moves on to the difficulties of verifying causation in science and the problems of establishing causation in law. Outlining the role of the expert witness and scientific expert evidence, the thesis proceeds with a case analysis, before broaching the thorny issue of judicial decision making and in particular, the difference between the 'discovery' and 'justification' process. Moving on to the Judgment in Reay and Hope, attention is given to the potential application of probability theory to the judicial decision making process. Lasting just short of one hundred days and including the testimony of numerous scientific experts, Reay and Hope marked new ground in a number of ways; it was the first personal injury claim to test the concept of genetic damage from radiation; the only time that a Queen's Bench Division Judge had been allocated a full-time judicial assistant, and one of the first trials to endorse a satellite video link for examination of international expert witnesses. As far as judicial management is concerned, the case was a forerunner in having Counsels' Opening Statements in writing in advance of the trial, as well as having written daily submissions of key issues from plaintiffs and defendants upon conclusion of oral evidence. The circumstances that led to the trial relate to events in excess of thirty to forty years ago when the fathers of Dorothy Reay and Vivien Hope were employed by the Defendants and their predecessors (the United Kingdom Atomic Energy Authority) as fitters for the Sellafield Plant

Scientific evidence and the toxic tort. A socio-legal study of the issues, expert evidence and judgement in Reay and Hope v. British Nuclear Fuels plc

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Harrison, R.J

1999-07-01

Providing a socio-legal analysis of the issues, expert evidence and judgment in Reay and Hope v BNFL plc., the thesis offers an insight into the complexity of the toxic tort. Starting with an overview of the history of Sellafield, the thesis reflects on the scientific and epidemiological concerns surrounding the link between childhood cancer and nuclear installations. Drawing on scientific knowledge and epistemological considerations, the thesis moves on to the difficulties of verifying causation in science and the problems of establishing causation in law. Outlining the role of the expert witness and scientific expert evidence, the thesis proceeds with a case analysis, before broaching the thorny issue of judicial decision making and in particular, the difference between the 'discovery' and 'justification' process. Moving on to the Judgment in Reay and Hope, attention is given to the potential application of probability theory to the judicial decision making process. Lasting just short of one hundred days and including the testimony of numerous scientific experts, Reay and Hope marked new ground in a number of ways; it was the first personal injury claim to test the concept of genetic damage from radiation; the only time that a Queen's Bench Division Judge had been allocated a full-time judicial assistant, and one of the first trials to endorse a satellite video link for examination of international expert witnesses. As far as judicial management is concerned, the case was a forerunner in having Counsels' Opening Statements in writing in advance of the trial, as well as having written daily submissions of key issues from plaintiffs and defendants upon conclusion of oral evidence. The circumstances that led to the trial relate to events in excess of thirty to forty years ago when the fathers of Dorothy Reay and Vivien Hope were employed by the Defendants and their predecessors (the United Kingdom Atomic Energy Authority) as fitters for

Hybrid expert system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tsoukalas, L.; Ikonomopoulos, A.; Uhrig, R.E.

1991-01-01

This paper presents a methodology that couples rule-based expert systems using fuzzy logic, to pre-trained artificial neutral networks (ANN) for the purpose of transient identification in Nuclear Power Plants (NPP). In order to provide timely concise, and task-specific information about the may aspects of the transient and to determine the state of the system based on the interpretation of potentially noisy data a model-referenced approach is utilized. In it, the expert system performs the basic interpretation and processing of the model data, and pre-trained ANNs provide the model. having access to a set of neural networks that typify general categories of transients, the rule based system is able to perform identification functions. Membership functions - condensing information about a transient in a form convenient for a rule-based identification system characterizing a transient - are the output of neural computations. This allows the identification function to be performed with a speed comparable to or faster than that of the temporal evolution of the system. Simulator data form major secondary system pipe rupture is used to demonstrate the methodology. The results indicate excellent noise-tolerance for ANN's and suggest a new method for transient identification within the framework of Fuzzy Logic

Subjectivity Inherent In By-Eye Symmetry Judgements and the Large Cutting Tools at the Cave of Hearths, Limpopo Province, South Africa

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dave Underhill

2007-11-01

Full Text Available The Stone Age of South Africa is an area of study due for a renaissance, and there is a real need for unification of the extant evidence. As a beginning to this, new methodologies have been proposed. This paper tackles the issue of symmetry, specifically the subjectivity involved in by-eye judgements. Assumptions of subjectivity, however, are not proof: presented here is a critical analysis of the inherent bias of by-eye symmetry judgements. Ultimately it is clear that the method contains a level of subjectivity which strips it of any analytical value. The by-eye judgement of symmetry is replaced by the more robust Flip Test computer program, and a brief study is made of the Large Cutting Tools (LCT at a vitally important, yet often overlooked, site dating from the Pleistocene in South Africa, the Cave of Hearths, Limpopo province. The corollary is that the symmetry present in the Cave of Hearths Large Cutting Tools can be studied with some measure of confidence: suggestions are made regarding the nature of tool typologies and the knappers’ ultimate focus on tip shape and utility.

The BASES expert statement on emotion regulation in sport.

Science.gov (United States)

Lane, Andrew M; Beedie, Chris J; Jones, Marc V; Uphill, Mark; Devonport, Tracey J

2012-01-01

Emotions experienced before and during sports competition have been found to influence sports performance. Emotion regulation is defined as the automatic or deliberate use of strategies to initiate, maintain, modify or display emotions (Gross & Thompson, 2007) and is proposed to occur when a discrepancy exists between current and desired emotions. Two distinct motivations to regulate emotion - hedonic and instrumental (in short, for pleasure or for purpose) - have been proposed (Tamir, 2009). The instrumental approach might provide a more fruitful area of investigation for sports researchers as some athletes hold beliefs that supposedly pleasant emotions such as happiness and calmness associate with poor performance and supposedly unpleasant emotions such as anxiety and anger associate with good performance (Hanin, 2010). Athletes are more likely to try to regulate an emotion if they believe that doing so will facilitate performance. Strategies that encourage re-appraisal of factors that trigger emotions are proposed to be preferable. In this British Association of Sport and Exercise Sciences (BASES) expert statement, a summary of the key theoretical issues are offered leading to evidence-based recommendations for practitioners and researchers.

Judgement and the role of the metaphysics of values in medical ethics.

Science.gov (United States)

Thornton, T

2006-06-01

Despite its authors' intentions, the four principles approach to medical ethics can become crudely algorithmic in practice. The first section sets out the bare bones of the four principles approach drawing out those aspects of Beauchamp and Childress's Principles of biomedical ethics that encourage this misreading. The second section argues that if the emphasis on the guidance of moral judgement is augmented by a particularist account of what disciplines it, then the danger can be reduced. In the third section, I consider how much the resultant picture diverges from Beauchamp and Childress's actual position.

Essen Superior Court. Judgement of September 24, 1982. ('Boycott of electricity bills')

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1983-01-01

The Essen Superiour Court decided by judgement published on September 24, 1982 that an electricity supply company is not, by the supply contract, obliged to his customers to do without electric energy generated from nuclear energy. Even though the basic rights of the constitution may influence the contractual relations between the electricity supply compagny and the customers, the basic rights of freedom of conscience and the right of free speech do not entitle the customer to interfere with the lawful performance of the freedom of entrepreneurial activity of the electricity supply company. (WB) [de

Expert systems for plant operations training and assistance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pack, R.W.; Lazar, P.M.; Schmidt, R.V.; Gaddy, C.D.

1988-01-01

The project described in this paper explored the use of expert systems for plant operations training and assistance. Three computer technologies were reviewed: computer-aided instruction, expert systems, and expert training systems (ETS). The technology of CAI has been developed since the early 1960s, and a wide range of applications are available commercially today. Expert systems have been developed primarily as job performance aids, and the number of commercial applications is increasing. A fully developed ETS has models of the trainer and trainee, in addition to a knowledge base

Handbook of VLSI chip design and expert systems

CERN Document Server

Schwarz, A F

1993-01-01

Handbook of VLSI Chip Design and Expert Systems provides information pertinent to the fundamental aspects of expert systems, which provides a knowledge-based approach to problem solving. This book discusses the use of expert systems in every possible subtask of VLSI chip design as well as in the interrelations between the subtasks.Organized into nine chapters, this book begins with an overview of design automation, which can be identified as Computer-Aided Design of Circuits and Systems (CADCAS). This text then presents the progress in artificial intelligence, with emphasis on expert systems.

Automated planning target volume generation: an evaluation pitting a computer-based tool against human experts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ketting, Case H.; Austin-Seymour, Mary; Kalet, Ira; Jacky, Jon; Kromhout-Schiro, Sharon; Hummel, Sharon; Unger, Jonathan; Fagan, Lawrence M.; Griffin, Tom

1997-01-01

Purpose: Software tools are seeing increased use in three-dimensional treatment planning. However, the development of these tools frequently omits careful evaluation before placing them in clinical use. This study demonstrates the application of a rigorous evaluation methodology using blinded peer review to an automated software tool that produces ICRU-50 planning target volumes (PTVs). Methods and Materials: Seven physicians from three different institutions involved in three-dimensional treatment planning participated in the evaluation. Four physicians drew partial PTVs on nine test cases, consisting of four nasopharynx and five lung primaries. Using the same information provided to the human experts, the computer tool generated PTVs for comparison. The remaining three physicians, designated evaluators, individually reviewed the PTVs for acceptability. To exclude bias, the evaluators were blinded to the source (human or computer) of the PTVs they reviewed. Their scorings of the PTVs were statistically examined to determine if the computer tool performed as well as the human experts. Results: The computer tool was as successful as the human experts in generating PTVs. Failures were primarily attributable to insufficient margins around the clinical target volume and to encroachment upon critical structures. In a qualitative analysis, the human and computer experts displayed similar types and distributions of errors. Conclusions: Rigorous evaluation of computer-based radiotherapy tools requires comparison to current practice and can reveal areas for improvement before the tool enters clinical practice

Expert systems in clinical practice

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Renaud-Salis, J.L.

1987-01-01

The first expert systems prototypes intended for advising physicians on diagnosis or therapy selection have been designed more than ten years ago. However, a few of them are already in use in clinical practice after years of research and development efforts. The capabilities of these systems to reason symbolically and to mimic the hypothetico-deductive processes used by physicians distinguishes them from conventional computer programs. Their power comes from their knowledge-base which embeds a large quantity of high-level, specialized knowledge captured from medical experts. Common methods for knowledge representation include production rules and frames. These methods also provide a mean for organizing and structuring the knowledge according to hierarchical or causal links. The best expert-systems perform at the level of the experts. They are easy to learn and use, and can communicate with the user in pseudo-natural language. Moreover they are able to explain their line of reasoning. These capabilities make them potentially useful, usable and acceptable by physicians. However if the problems related to difficulties and costs in building expert-systems are on the way to be solved within the next few years, forensic and ethical issues should have to be addressed before one can envisage their routine use in clinical practice [fr

Quality dependent fusion of intramodal and multimodal biometric experts

Science.gov (United States)

Kittler, J.; Poh, N.; Fatukasi, O.; Messer, K.; Kryszczuk, K.; Richiardi, J.; Drygajlo, A.

2007-04-01

We address the problem of score level fusion of intramodal and multimodal experts in the context of biometric identity verification. We investigate the merits of confidence based weighting of component experts. In contrast to the conventional approach where confidence values are derived from scores, we use instead raw measures of biometric data quality to control the influence of each expert on the final fused score. We show that quality based fusion gives better performance than quality free fusion. The use of quality weighted scores as features in the definition of the fusion functions leads to further improvements. We demonstrate that the achievable performance gain is also affected by the choice of fusion architecture. The evaluation of the proposed methodology involves 6 face and one speech verification experts. It is carried out on the XM2VTS data base.

Diagnosis - Using automatic test equipment and artificial intelligence expert systems

Science.gov (United States)

Ramsey, J. E., Jr.

Three expert systems (ATEOPS, ATEFEXPERS, and ATEFATLAS), which were created to direct automatic test equipment (ATE), are reviewed. The purpose of the project was to develop an expert system to troubleshoot the converter-programmer power supply card for the F-15 aircraft and have that expert system direct the automatic test equipment. Each expert system uses a different knowledge base or inference engine, basing the testing on the circuit schematic, test requirements document, or ATLAS code. Implementing generalized modules allows the expert systems to be used for any different unit under test. Using converted ATLAS to LISP code allows the expert system to direct any ATE using ATLAS. The constraint propagated frame system allows for the expansion of control by creating the ATLAS code, checking the code for good software engineering techniques, directing the ATE, and changing the test sequence as needed (planning).

A diagnostic expert system for NPP based on hybrid knowledge approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yang, Joon On; Chang, Soon Heung

1989-01-01

This paper describes a diagnostic expert system, HYPOSS (Hybrid Knowledge Based Plant Operation Supporting System), which has been developed to support operators' decision making during the transients of nuclear power plant. HYPOSS adopts the hybrid knowledge approach which combines shallow and deep knowledge to couple the merits of both approaches. In HYPOSS, four types of knowledge are used according to the steps of diagnosis procedure: structural, functional, behavioral and heuristic knowledge. The structural and functional knowledge is represented by three fundamental primitives and five types of functions respectively. The behavioral knowledge is represented using constraints. The inference procedure is based on the human problem solving behavior modeled in HYPOSS. For the validation of HYPOSS, several tests have been performed based on the data produced by a plant simulator. The results of validation studies showed a good applicability of HYPOSS to the anomaly diagnosis of nuclear power plant

Automated Individual Prescription of Exercise with an XML-based Expert System.

Science.gov (United States)

Jang, S; Park, S R; Jang, Y; Park, J; Yoon, Y; Park, S

2005-01-01

Continuously motivating people to exercise regularly is more important than finding a barriers such as lack of time, cost of equipment or gym membership, lack of nearby facilities and poor weather or night-time lighting. Our proposed system presents practicable methods of motivation through a web-based exercise prescription service. Users are instructed to exercise according to their physical ability by means of an automated individual prescription of exercise checked and approved by a personal trainer or exercise specialist after being tested with the HIMS, fitness assessment system. Furthermore, utilizing BIOFIT exercise prescriptions scheduled by an expert system can help users exercise systematically. Automated individual prescriptions are built in XML based documents because the data needs to be flexible, expansible and convertible structures to process diverse exercise templates. Web-based exercise prescription service makes users stay interested in exercise even if they live in many different environments.

Methodology toward second generation expert systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dormoy, J.L.

1989-01-01

So-called First Generation Expert Systems were aimed at capturing the expert's know-how. Though providing remarkable achievements, this first wave did not give the expected outcome. A new generation is getting out from the laboratories. Instead of remaining at a shallow level of knowledge - that is the unmotivated reasoning processes expressed by an expert when he is forced to tell them - one attempts to re-build this level of knowledge from the first principles which constitute the basis of an expert's knowledge. These systems are called deep knowledge-based, or second generation expert systems. Discussion in the three first parts rests on two examples: A first generation and a half system for process control in nuclear powers plants, than the system EXTRA for alarm processing in nuclear plants, wherein fonctional knowledge is explicitely represented. We show how deep knowledge can be implemented, and the advantages that can be expected from this methodology. Qualitative Physics is discussed in the next part. Future research developments as well as potential payoffs are mentioned [fr

False confessions, expert testimony, and admissibility.

Science.gov (United States)

Watson, Clarence; Weiss, Kenneth J; Pouncey, Claire

2010-01-01

The confession of a criminal defendant serves as a prosecutor's most compelling piece of evidence during trial. Courts must preserve a defendant's constitutional right to a fair trial while upholding the judicial interests of presenting competent and reliable evidence to the jury. When a defendant seeks to challenge the validity of that confession through expert testimony, the prosecution often contests the admissibility of the expert's opinion. Depending on the content and methodology of the expert's opinion, testimony addressing the phenomenon of false confessions may or may not be admissible. This article outlines the scientific and epistemological bases of expert testimony on false confession, notes the obstacles facing its admissibility, and provides guidance to the expert in formulating opinions that will reach the judge or jury. We review the 2006 New Jersey Superior Court decision in State of New Jersey v. George King to illustrate what is involved in the admissibility of false-confession testimony and use the case as a starting point in developing a best-practice approach to working in this area.

Judgement of irradiation-preserved food by the adult population in Hungary (preliminary publication)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tolnay, P.; Szabo, S.A.

1997-01-01

A wide survey by questionnaires was started in 1997 in the subject area of Nutrition and Health. Part of this survey was directed toward the acceptance of preserved food by irradiation treatment by the public. The results have been evaluated here and presented. The main problem was to find out the differences of various segments of the Hungarian adult population in their judgement of irradiated food, and what is the general knowledge in relation with radiopreservation technology of food. (R.P.)

An American knowledge base in England - Alternate implementations of an expert system flight status monitor

Science.gov (United States)

Butler, G. F.; Graves, A. T.; Disbrow, J. D.; Duke, E. L.

1989-01-01

A joint activity between the Dryden Flight Research Facility of the NASA Ames Research Center (Ames-Dryden) and the Royal Aerospace Establishment (RAE) on knowledge-based systems has been agreed. Under the agreement, a flight status monitor knowledge base developed at Ames-Dryden has been implemented using the real-time AI (artificial intelligence) toolkit MUSE, which was developed in the UK. Here, the background to the cooperation is described and the details of the flight status monitor and a prototype MUSE implementation are presented. It is noted that the capabilities of the expert-system flight status monitor to monitor data downlinked from the flight test aircraft and to generate information on the state and health of the system for the test engineers provides increased safety during flight testing of new systems. Furthermore, the expert-system flight status monitor provides the systems engineers with ready access to the large amount of information required to describe a complex aircraft system.

Facial attractiveness judgements reflect learning of parental age characteristics.

Science.gov (United States)

Perrett, David I; Penton-Voak, Ian S; Little, Anthony C; Tiddeman, Bernard P; Burt, D Michael; Schmidt, Natalie; Oxley, Roz; Kinloch, Nicholas; Barrett, Louise

2002-05-07

Mate preferences are shaped by infant experience of parental characteristics in a wide variety of species. Similar processes in humans may lead to physical similarity between parents and mates, yet this possibility has received little attention. The age of parents is one salient physical characteristic that offspring may attend to. The current study used computer-graphic faces to examine how preferences for age in faces were influenced by parental age. We found that women born to 'old' parents (over 30) were less impressed by youth, and more attracted to age cues in male faces than women with 'young' parents (under 30). For men, preferences for female faces were influenced by their mother's age and not their father's age, but only for long-term relationships. These data indicate that judgements of facial attractiveness in humans reflect the learning of parental characteristics.

A Quality Function Deployment-Based Expert System for Cotton Fibre Selection

Science.gov (United States)

Chakraborty, Shankar; Prasad, Kanika

2018-06-01

The textile industries have seen resurgence in customers' demand for quality products during the preceding few years. This product range is extremely varied, with hand-spun and hand-woven products at one end of the spectrum, while products manufactured from the capital intensive sophisticated machineries at the other end. Since, cotton fibres are predominantly employed as the raw material for manufacturing these products, their proper selection is crucial for sustainable development of the textile/spinning industries. However, availability of numerous cotton fibre alternatives with various physical properties makes this selection process unwieldy and time consuming. Thus, there is need for a structured approach that can incorporate customers' demand into the selection process. This paper demonstrates the application of a structured and logical procedure of selecting the best cotton fibre type to fulfill a set of specified end product requirements through design and development of a quality function deployment (QFD)-based expert system. The QFD technique is employed here to provide due importance to the customers' spoken and unspoken needs, and subsequently calculate the priority weights of the considered cotton fibre properties. Two real time illustrative examples are presented to explicate the applicability and potentiality of the developed expert system to resolve cotton fibre selection problems.

A Quality Function Deployment-Based Expert System for Cotton Fibre Selection

Science.gov (United States)

Chakraborty, Shankar; Prasad, Kanika

2018-01-01

The textile industries have seen resurgence in customers' demand for quality products during the preceding few years. This product range is extremely varied, with hand-spun and hand-woven products at one end of the spectrum, while products manufactured from the capital intensive sophisticated machineries at the other end. Since, cotton fibres are predominantly employed as the raw material for manufacturing these products, their proper selection is crucial for sustainable development of the textile/spinning industries. However, availability of numerous cotton fibre alternatives with various physical properties makes this selection process unwieldy and time consuming. Thus, there is need for a structured approach that can incorporate customers' demand into the selection process. This paper demonstrates the application of a structured and logical procedure of selecting the best cotton fibre type to fulfill a set of specified end product requirements through design and development of a quality function deployment (QFD)-based expert system. The QFD technique is employed here to provide due importance to the customers' spoken and unspoken needs, and subsequently calculate the priority weights of the considered cotton fibre properties. Two real time illustrative examples are presented to explicate the applicability and potentiality of the developed expert system to resolve cotton fibre selection problems.

Cooperating expert systems for space station power distribution management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nguyen, T.A.; Chiou, W.C.

1986-01-01

In a complex system such as the manned Space Station, it is deemed necessary that many expert systems must perform tasks in a concurrent and cooperative manner. An important question to arise is: what cooperative-task-performing models are appropriate for multiple expert systems to jointly perform tasks. The solution to this question will provide a crucial automation design criteria for the Space Station complex systems architecture. Based on a client/server model for performing tasks, the authors have developed a system that acts as a front-end to support loosely-coupled communications between expert systems running on multiple Symbolics machines. As an example, they use the two ART*-based expert systems to demonstrate the concept of parallel symbolic manipulation for power distribution management and dynamic load planner/scheduler in the simulated Space Station environment. This on-going work will also explore other cooperative-task-performing models as alternatives which can evaluate inter and intra expert system communication mechanisms. It will serve as a testbed and a bench-marking tool for other Space Station expert subsystem communication and information exchange

Cooperating Expert Systems For Space Station Power Distribution Management

Science.gov (United States)

Nguyen, T. A.; Chiou, W. C.

1987-02-01

In a complex system such as the manned Space Station, it is deem necessary that many expert systems must perform tasks in a concurrent and cooperative manner. An important question arise is: what cooperative-task-performing models are appropriate for multiple expert systems to jointly perform tasks. The solution to this question will provide a crucial automation design criteria for the Space Station complex systems architecture. Based on a client/server model for performing tasks, we have developed a system that acts as a front-end to support loosely-coupled communications between expert systems running on multiple Symbolics machines. As an example, we use two ART*-based expert systems to demonstrate the concept of parallel symbolic manipulation for power distribution management and dynamic load planner/scheduler in the simulated Space Station environment. This on-going work will also explore other cooperative-task-performing models as alternatives which can evaluate inter and intra expert system communication mechanisms. It will be served as a testbed and a bench-marking tool for other Space Station expert subsystem communication and information exchange.

The recourse to experts. Political reasons and uses

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dumoulin, L.; La Branche, St.; Robert, C.; Warin, Ph.

2005-01-01

The need of reliable knowledge is necessary to draw adequate public policies. The role of experts is more and more important in any field, the expert brings his own specialized knowledge to the political world, he can define looming threads, can predict catastrophes, can highlight the long-term responsibility of particular choices but he can also contribute to the drawing of adequate solutions. The limit of expert's power lays in his ability to make a synthesis of plural knowledge. This book presents the role and weight of experts in our society from justice to economics via natural risks. A lot of examples of public policies based on expert valuation is given, in particular the recourse to experts of the European Union when it was to deal with the upgrading of nuclear safety standard in eastern countries. (A.C.)

Jess, the Java expert system shell

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Friedman-Hill, E.J.

1997-11-01

This report describes Jess, a clone of the popular CLIPS expert system shell written entirely in Java. Jess supports the development of rule-based expert systems which can be tightly coupled to code written in the powerful, portable Java language. The syntax of the Jess language is discussed, and a comprehensive list of supported functions is presented. A guide to extending Jess by writing Java code is also included.

An expert system for dispersion model interpretation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Skyllingstad, E.D.; Ramsdell, J.V.

1988-10-01

A prototype expert system designed to diagnose dispersion model uncertainty is described in this paper with application to a puff transport model. The system obtains qualitative information from the model user and through an expert-derived knowledge base, performs a rating of the current simulation. These results can then be used in combination with dispersion model output for deciding appropriate evacuation measures. Ultimately, the goal of this work is to develop an expert system that may be operated accurately by an individual uneducated in meteorology or dispersion modeling. 5 refs., 3 figs

Assessing Trauma Care Provider Judgement in the Prediction of Need for Life-saving Interventions

Science.gov (United States)

2015-01-13

suggest that agreement among groups of clinicians is far less dependable. The overall patterns of agreement among provider groups in our study are not...Gabbe BJ, Cameron P, Victorian State Trauma Outcomes Registry and Monitoring Group (VSTORM). Is paramedic judgement useful in prehospital trauma triage...2007;63:1338–46. [13] Gruen RL, Jurkovich GJ, McIntyre LK, Foy HM, Maier RV. Patterns of errors contributing to trauma mortality: lessons learned from

Neural network-based expert system for severe accident management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Klopp, G.T.; Silverman, E.B.

1992-01-01

This paper presents the results of the second phase of a three-phase Severe Accident Management expert system program underway at Commonwealth Edison Company (CECo). Phase I successfully demonstrated the feasibility of Artificial Neural Networks to support several of the objectives of severe accident management. Simulated accident scenarios were generated by the Modular Accident Analysis Program (MAAP) code currently in use by CECo as part of their Individual Plant Evaluations (IPE)/Accident Management Program. The primary objectives of the second phase were to develop and demonstrate four capabilities of neural networks with respect to nuclear power plant severe accident monitoring and prediction. The results of this work would form the foundation of a demonstration system which included expert system performance features. These capabilities included the ability to: (1) Predict the time available prior to support plate (and reactor vessel) failure; (2) Calculate the time remaining until recovery actions were too late to prevent core damage; (3) Predict future parameter values of each of the MAAP parameter variables; and (4) Detect simulated sensor failure and provide best-value estimates for further processing in the presence of a sensor failure. A variety of accident scenarios for the Zion and Dresden plants were used to train and test the neural network expert system. These included large and small break LOCAs as well as a range of transient events. 3 refs., 1 fig., 1 tab

MANAGEMENT OF RISKS BASED ON INTERACTION BETWEEN CONSTRUCTION EXPERT AND CUSTOMER ORGANIZATION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Александр Васильевич Харитонович

2016-02-01

Full Text Available The paper describes problems connected to management of risk and key characteristics of interaction of construction expert and organization-customer of expert services. We have conducted the analysis of different schemes used for management of risk, their advantages and disadvantages. In addition authors describe the main opportunities that appear in the organization as a result of the systematic engagement of an external expert at different stages of investment and construction project (getting recommendations aimed at improving of the organization adaptability to changes and risks; improving the efficiency of management of investment and construction projects etc..

Expert and competent non-expert visual cues during simulated diagnosis in intensive care.

Science.gov (United States)

McCormack, Clare; Wiggins, Mark W; Loveday, Thomas; Festa, Marino

2014-01-01

The aim of this study was to examine the information acquisition strategies of expert and competent non-expert intensive care physicians during two simulated diagnostic scenarios involving respiratory distress in an infant. Specifically, the information acquisition performance of six experts and 12 competent non-experts was examined using an eye-tracker during the initial 90 s of the assessment of the patient. The results indicated that, in comparison to competent non-experts, experts recorded longer mean fixations, irrespective of the scenario. When the dwell times were examined against specific areas of interest, the results revealed that competent non-experts recorded greater overall dwell times on the nurse, where experts recorded relatively greater dwell times on the head and face of the manikin. In the context of the scenarios, experts recorded differential dwell times, spending relatively more time on the head and face during the seizure scenario than during the coughing scenario. The differences evident between experts and competent non-experts were interpreted as evidence of the relative availability of task-specific cues or heuristics in memory that might direct the process of information acquisition amongst expert physicians. The implications are discussed for the training and assessment of diagnostic skills.

Knowledge Representation Using Multilevel Flow Model in Expert System

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, Wenlin; Yang, Ming

2015-01-01

As for the knowledge representation, of course, there are a great many methods available for knowledge representation. These include frames, causal models, and many others. This paper presents a novel method called Multilevel Flow Model (MFM), which is used for knowledge representation in G2 expert system. Knowledge representation plays a vital role in constructing knowledge bases. Moreover, it also has impact on building of generic fault model as well as knowledge bases. The MFM is particularly useful to describe system knowledge concisely as domain map in expert system when domain experts are not available

Knowledge Representation Using Multilevel Flow Model in Expert System

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wang, Wenlin; Yang, Ming [Harbin Engineering University, Harbin (China)

2015-05-15

As for the knowledge representation, of course, there are a great many methods available for knowledge representation. These include frames, causal models, and many others. This paper presents a novel method called Multilevel Flow Model (MFM), which is used for knowledge representation in G2 expert system. Knowledge representation plays a vital role in constructing knowledge bases. Moreover, it also has impact on building of generic fault model as well as knowledge bases. The MFM is particularly useful to describe system knowledge concisely as domain map in expert system when domain experts are not available.

Felt Moral Obligation and the Moral Judgement-Moral Action Gap: Toward a Phenomenology of Moral Life

Science.gov (United States)

Williams, Richard N.; Gantt, Edwin E.

2012-01-01

The step-off point for this article is the problem of the "moral judgement-moral action gap" as found in contemporary literature of moral education and moral development. We argue that this gap, and the conceptual problems encountered by attempts to bridge it, reflects the effect of a different, deeper and more problematic conceptual gap: the…

[Development of expert diagnostic system for common respiratory diseases].

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Wei-hua; Chen, You-ling; Yan, Zheng

2014-03-01

To develop an internet-based expert diagnostic system for common respiratory diseases. SaaS system was used to build architecture; pattern of forward reasoning was applied for inference engine design; ASP.NET with C# from the tool pack of Microsoft Visual Studio 2005 was used for website-interview medical expert system.The database of the system was constructed with Microsoft SQL Server 2005. The developed expert system contained large data memory and high efficient function of data interview and data analysis for diagnosis of various diseases.The users were able to perform this system to obtain diagnosis for common respiratory diseases via internet. The developed expert system may be used for internet-based diagnosis of various respiratory diseases,particularly in telemedicine setting.

Spectral information interpretation of X-ray analysis based on expert system approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Drakunov, Yu.M.; Lezin, A.N.; Pukha, N.P.; Silachev, I.Yu.

2000-01-01

An expert subprogram for automated identification for element composition of the samples of different nature according to the result of energy-dispersive X-ray fluorescence analysis is elaborated, The flowchart of the subprogram is presented, brief description of expert system structure and its algorithm is given. (author)

Pengaruh Filosofi Moral Etika dan Emosi terhadap Ethical Judgement Akuntan: Studi Empiris dengan Menggunakan Multidimensional Ethics Scale Pada PT Bank BRI dan PT Telkom di Medan

OpenAIRE

Ardani, Devi Agustia

2013-01-01

THE INFLUENCE OF THE PHILOSOPHY OF ETHICS AND EMOTION TO ETHICAL JUDGEMENT OF ACCONTANTS : EMPHIRICAL STUDY BY USING MULTIDIMENSIONAL ETHICS SCALE FROM PT BANK BRI AND PT TELKOM IN MEDAN The formulation of problem in this study is how philosophy of ethics and emotion which consist of justice, deontology, relativism, egoism, utilitarianism, regret, relief, and satisfaction affect ethical judgement for accountants. The purpose of this study is to know and analyze the influence of ph...

CLIPS/Ada: An Ada-based tool for building expert systems

Science.gov (United States)

White, W. A.

1990-01-01

Clips/Ada is a production system language and a development environment. It is functionally equivalent to the CLIPS tool. CLIPS/Ada was developed in order to provide a means of incorporating expert system technology into projects where the use of the Ada language had been mandated. A secondary purpose was to glean information about the Ada language and its compilers. Specifically, whether or not the language and compilers were mature enough to support AI applications. The CLIPS/Ada tool is coded entirely in Ada and is designed to be used by Ada systems that require expert reasoning.

Design and Development Computer-Based E-Learning Teaching Material for Improving Mathematical Understanding Ability and Spatial Sense of Junior High School Students

Science.gov (United States)

Nurjanah; Dahlan, J. A.; Wibisono, Y.

2017-02-01

This paper aims to make a design and development computer-based e-learning teaching material for improving mathematical understanding ability and spatial sense of junior high school students. Furthermore, the particular aims are (1) getting teaching material design, evaluation model, and intrument to measure mathematical understanding ability and spatial sense of junior high school students; (2) conducting trials computer-based e-learning teaching material model, asessment, and instrument to develop mathematical understanding ability and spatial sense of junior high school students; (3) completing teaching material models of computer-based e-learning, assessment, and develop mathematical understanding ability and spatial sense of junior high school students; (4) resulting research product is teaching materials of computer-based e-learning. Furthermore, the product is an interactive learning disc. The research method is used of this study is developmental research which is conducted by thought experiment and instruction experiment. The result showed that teaching materials could be used very well. This is based on the validation of computer-based e-learning teaching materials, which is validated by 5 multimedia experts. The judgement result of face and content validity of 5 validator shows that the same judgement result to the face and content validity of each item test of mathematical understanding ability and spatial sense. The reliability test of mathematical understanding ability and spatial sense are 0,929 and 0,939. This reliability test is very high. While the validity of both tests have a high and very high criteria.

An expert system for the quantification of fault rates in construction fall accidents.

Science.gov (United States)

Talat Birgonul, M; Dikmen, Irem; Budayan, Cenk; Demirel, Tuncay

2016-01-01

Expert witness reports, prepared with the aim of quantifying fault rates among parties, play an important role in a court's final decision. However, conflicting fault rates assigned by different expert witness boards lead to iterative objections raised by the related parties. This unfavorable situation mainly originates due to the subjectivity of expert judgments and unavailability of objective information about the causes of accidents. As a solution to this shortcoming, an expert system based on a rule-based system was developed for the quantification of fault rates in construction fall accidents. The aim of developing DsSafe is decreasing the subjectivity inherent in expert witness reports. Eighty-four inspection reports prepared by the official and authorized inspectors were examined and root causes of construction fall accidents in Turkey were identified. Using this information, an evaluation form was designed and submitted to the experts. Experts were asked to evaluate the importance level of the factors that govern fall accidents and determine the fault rates under different scenarios. Based on expert judgments, a rule-based expert system was developed. The accuracy and reliability of DsSafe were tested with real data as obtained from finalized court cases. DsSafe gives satisfactory results.

Structure of the knowledge base for an expert labeling system

Science.gov (United States)

Rajaram, N. S.

1981-01-01

One of the principal objectives of the NASA AgRISTARS program is the inventory of global crop resources using remotely sensed data gathered by Land Satellites (LANDSAT). A central problem in any such crop inventory procedure is the interpretation of LANDSAT images and identification of parts of each image which are covered by a particular crop of interest. This task of labeling is largely a manual one done by trained human analysts and consequently presents obstacles to the development of totally automated crop inventory systems. However, development in knowledge engineering as well as widespread availability of inexpensive hardware and software for artificial intelligence work offers possibilities for developing expert systems for labeling of crops. Such a knowledge based approach to labeling is presented.

Expert and Competent Non-Expert Visual Cues during Simulated Diagnosis in Intensive Care

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Clare eMcCormack

2014-08-01

Full Text Available The aim of this study was to examine the information acquisition strategies of expert and competent non-expert intensive care physicians during two simulated diagnostic scenarios involving respiratory distress in an infant. Specifically, the information acquisition performance of six experts and 12 competent non-experts was examined using an eye tracker during the initial 90 seconds of the assessment of the patient. The results indicated that, in comparison to competent non-experts, experts recorded longer mean fixations, irrespective of the scenario. When the dwell times were examined against specific areas of interest, the results revealed that competent non-experts recorded greater overall dwell times on the nurse, where experts recorded relatively greater dwell times on the head and face of the manikin. In the context of the scenarios, experts recorded differential dwell times, spending relatively more time on the head and face during the seizure scenario than during the coughing scenario. The differences evident between experts and competent non-experts were interpreted as evidence of the relative availability of task-specific cues or heuristics in memory that might direct the process of information acquisition amongst expert physicians. The implications are discussed for the training and assessment of diagnostic skills.

Rule-based expert system for maritime anomaly detection

Science.gov (United States)

Roy, Jean

2010-04-01

Maritime domain operators/analysts have a mandate to be aware of all that is happening within their areas of responsibility. This mandate derives from the needs to defend sovereignty, protect infrastructures, counter terrorism, detect illegal activities, etc., and it has become more challenging in the past decade, as commercial shipping turned into a potential threat. In particular, a huge portion of the data and information made available to the operators/analysts is mundane, from maritime platforms going about normal, legitimate activities, and it is very challenging for them to detect and identify the non-mundane. To achieve such anomaly detection, they must establish numerous relevant situational facts from a variety of sensor data streams. Unfortunately, many of the facts of interest just cannot be observed; the operators/analysts thus use their knowledge of the maritime domain and their reasoning faculties to infer these facts. As they are often overwhelmed by the large amount of data and information, automated reasoning tools could be used to support them by inferring the necessary facts, ultimately providing indications and warning on a small number of anomalous events worthy of their attention. Along this line of thought, this paper describes a proof-of-concept prototype of a rule-based expert system implementing automated rule-based reasoning in support of maritime anomaly detection.

Expert tool use

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Thorndahl, Kathrine Liedtke; Ravn, Susanne

2017-01-01

on a case study of elite rope skipping, we argue that the phenomenological concept of incorporation does not suffice to adequately describe how expert tool users feel when interacting with their tools. By analyzing a combination of insights gained from participant observation of 11 elite rope skippers......According to some phenomenologists, a tool can be experienced as incorporated when, as a result of habitual use or deliberate practice, someone is able to manipulate it without conscious effort. In this article, we specifically focus on the experience of expertise tool use in elite sport. Based...... and autoethnographic material from one former elite skipper, we take some initial steps toward the development of a more nuanced understanding of the concept of incorporation; one that is able to accommodate the experiences of expert tool users. In sum, our analyses indicate that the possibility for experiencing...

Expert Coaching in Weight Loss: Retrospective Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Kushner, Robert F; Hill, James O; Lindquist, Richard; Brunning, Scott; Margulies, Amy

2018-01-01

Background Providing coaches as part of a weight management program is a common practice to increase participant engagement and weight loss success. Understanding coach and participant interactions and how these interactions impact weight loss success needs to be further explored for coaching best practices. Objective The purpose of this study was to analyze the coach and participant interaction in a 6-month weight loss intervention administered by Retrofit, a personalized weight management and Web-based disease prevention solution. The study specifically examined the association between different methods of coach-participant interaction and weight loss and tried to understand the level of coaching impact on weight loss outcome. Methods A retrospective analysis was performed using 1432 participants enrolled from 2011 to 2016 in the Retrofit weight loss program. Participants were males and females aged 18 years or older with a baseline body mass index of ≥25 kg/m², who also provided at least one weight measurement beyond baseline. First, a detailed analysis of different coach-participant interaction was performed using both intent-to-treat and completer populations. Next, a multiple regression analysis was performed using all measures associated with coach-participant interactions involving expert coaching sessions, live weekly expert-led Web-based classes, and electronic messaging and feedback. Finally, 3 significant predictors (Pcoaching session attendance (Pcoaching sessions, attending 60% of live weekly Web-based classes, and receiving a minimum of 1 food log feedback day per week were associated with clinically significant weight loss. Conclusions Participant’s one-on-one expert coaching session attendance, live weekly expert-led interactive Web-based class attendance, and the number of food log feedback days per week from expert coach were significant predictors of weight loss in a 6-month intervention. PMID:29535082

GOTRES: an expert system for fault detection and analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chung, D.T.; Modarres, M.

1989-01-01

This paper describes a deep-knowledge expert system shell for diagnosing faults in process operations. The expert program shell is called GOTRES (GOal TRee Expert System) and uses a goal tree-success tree deep-knowledge structure to model its knowledge-base. To demonstrate GOTRES, we have built an on-line fault diagnosis expert system for an experimental nuclear reactor facility using this shell. The expert system is capable of diagnosing fault conditions using system goal tree as well as utilizing accumulated operating knowledge to predict plant causal and temporal behaviours. The GOTRES shell has also been used for root-cause detection and analysis in a nuclear plant. (author)

Planning bioinformatics workflows using an expert system

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Xiaoling; Chang, Jeffrey T.

2017-01-01

Abstract Motivation: Bioinformatic analyses are becoming formidably more complex due to the increasing number of steps required to process the data, as well as the proliferation of methods that can be used in each step. To alleviate this difficulty, pipelines are commonly employed. However, pipelines are typically implemented to automate a specific analysis, and thus are difficult to use for exploratory analyses requiring systematic changes to the software or parameters used. Results: To automate the development of pipelines, we have investigated expert systems. We created the Bioinformatics ExperT SYstem (BETSY) that includes a knowledge base where the capabilities of bioinformatics software is explicitly and formally encoded. BETSY is a backwards-chaining rule-based expert system comprised of a data model that can capture the richness of biological data, and an inference engine that reasons on the knowledge base to produce workflows. Currently, the knowledge base is populated with rules to analyze microarray and next generation sequencing data. We evaluated BETSY and found that it could generate workflows that reproduce and go beyond previously published bioinformatics results. Finally, a meta-investigation of the workflows generated from the knowledge base produced a quantitative measure of the technical burden imposed by each step of bioinformatics analyses, revealing the large number of steps devoted to the pre-processing of data. In sum, an expert system approach can facilitate exploratory bioinformatic analysis by automating the development of workflows, a task that requires significant domain expertise. Availability and Implementation: https://github.com/jefftc/changlab Contact: jeffrey.t.chang@uth.tmc.edu PMID:28052928

Expert systems to assist plant operation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Matsumoto, Yoshihiro; Mori, Nobuyuki; Wada, Norio

1985-01-01

Large-scale real-time process control systems, such as those for electric power dispatching, large thermal and nuclear power stations, steel mill plants and manufacturing automation systems, need expert systems to assist operator's decision. The expert systems newly developed to fulfill the requirement are founded on OKBS (object oriented knowledge based system). OKBS provides various object types: fuzzy logic type, production rule type, frame type, state transition type, abstract data type and input/output transformation type. (author)

Expert System Software Assistant for Payload Operations

Science.gov (United States)

Rogers, Mark N.

1997-01-01

The broad objective of this expert system software based application was to demonstrate the enhancements and cost savings that can be achieved through expert system software utilization in a spacecraft ground control center. Spacelab provided a valuable proving ground for this advanced software technology; a technology that will be exploited and expanded for future ISS operations. Our specific focus was on demonstrating payload cadre command and control efficiency improvements through the use of "smart" software which monitors flight telemetry, provides enhanced schematic-based data visualization, and performs advanced engineering data analysis.

Concept of expert system for modal split in transportation planning

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Popović Maja M.

2006-01-01

Full Text Available The objective of this paper is to develop a concept of expert system based on the survey of experts' opinions and their experience concerning relations in modal split, on the basis of parameters of transport system demand and transport supply, defined through PT travel time and city size, i.e. mean trip length. This expert system could be of use both to experts and less experienced planners who could apply the knowledge contained in this expert system for further improvement, on operational as well as on strategic level.

An Analysis of the Working Memories of Expert Sport Instructors

Science.gov (United States)

McCullick, Bryan; Schempp, Paul; Hsu, Shan-Hui; Jung, Jin Hong; Vickers, Brad; Schuknecht, Greg

2006-01-01

A distinguishing characteristic of expert teachers appears to be an excellent memory (Berliner, 1986; Tan, 1997). Possessing an excellent memory aids experts in building a substantial knowledge base relative to teaching and learning. Despite its importance, the memory skills of expert teachers have yet to be investigated. Therefore, the purpose of…

Plutonium - the ultrapoison? An expert's opinion about an expert opinion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stoll, W.; Becker, K.

1989-01-01

In an expert opinion written by Professor H. Kuni, Marburg, for the North Rhine-Westphalian state government, plutonium is called by far the most dangerous element in the Periodic Table. The Marburg medical expert holds that even improved legal instruments are unable to warrant effective protection of the workers handling this material, in the light of the present standards of industrial safety, because of radiological conditions and measuring problems with plutonium isotopes. In this article by an internationally renowned expert in the field, the ideas expressed in the expert opinion about the toxicity of plutonium, the cause-and-effect relationship in radiation damage by plutonium, and recent findings about the toxicity are subjected to a critical review. On the basis of results of radiation protection and of case studies, the statements in the expert opinion are contrasted with facts which make them appear in a very different light. (orig./RB) [de

Disrupting the right prefrontal cortex alters moral judgement.

Science.gov (United States)

Tassy, Sébastien; Oullier, Olivier; Duclos, Yann; Coulon, Olivier; Mancini, Julien; Deruelle, Christine; Attarian, Sharam; Felician, Olivier; Wicker, Bruno

2012-03-01

Humans daily face social situations involving conflicts between competing moral decision. Despite a substantial amount of studies published over the past 10 years, the respective role of emotions and reason, their possible interaction, and their behavioural expression during moral evaluation remains an unresolved issue. A dualistic approach to moral evaluation proposes that the right dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (rDLPFc) controls emotional impulses. However, recent findings raise the possibility that the right DLPFc processes emotional information during moral decision making. We used repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation (rTMS) to transiently disrupt rDLPFc activity before measuring decision making in the context of moral dilemmas. Results reveal an increase of the probability of utilitarian responses during objective evaluation of moral dilemmas in the rTMS group (compared to a SHAM one). This suggests that the right DLPFc function not only participates to a rational cognitive control process, but also integrates emotions generated by contextual information appraisal, which are decisive for response selection in moral judgements. © The Author (2011). Published by Oxford University Press.

An expert system for turbogenerator diagnostics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bessenyei, Z.; Tomcsanyi, T.; Toth, Z.; Laczay, I.

1992-01-01

In 1990, an expert system for turbo-generator diagnostics (EST-D) was installed at the 3rd and 4th units of the Paks NPP (Hungary). The expert system is strongly integrated to the ARGUS II vibration monitoring and diagnostics system. The system works on IBM PC AT. The VEIKI's and the NPP's human experts were interviewed to fill up the knowledgebase. The system is able to identify 13 different faults of the parts of a turbogenerator. The knowledgebase consists of ca 200 rules. The rules were built in and the system was verified and validated using a model of the turbines and using the experiences gathered with ARGUS II during the last 3 years. The maintenance personnel is authorized to modify and/or extend the knowledgebase. The input data for evaluation come from measured vibration patterns produced by the ARGUS II system, database of events, and maintenance data input by the maintenance personnel. The expert system is based on the modified GENESYS 2.1 shell (developed by SZAMALK, Hungary). Some limitations from PC application were eliminated, and a new, independent explanation module and man-machine interface were developed. Using this man-machine interface, one of the basic goals of the expert system developments was achieved: the human experts contribution is not necessary for diagnoses. The operator of the diagnostics system is able to produce the reports of diagnoses. Of course the interface allows the human experts to see the diagnoses through. It should be mentioned, at the beginning of 1991, we installed a similar expert system at the 1st 1000 MW WWER type unit of the Kalinin NPP (Soviet Union). In this paper, the operation of the EST-D, the man-machine interface and the operational experiences of the first 4 months work are explained. 2 refs., 14 figs

A Web Based Sweet Orange Crop Expert System using Rule Based System and Artificial Bee Colony Optimization Algorithm

OpenAIRE

Prof.M.S.Prasad Babu,; Mrs.J.Anitha,; K.Hari Krishna

2010-01-01

Citrus fruits have a prominent place among popular and exclusively grown tropical and sub-tropical fruits. Their nature ,multifold nutritional and medicinal values have made them so important. Sweet Orange Crop expert advisory system is aimed at a collaborative venture with eminent Agriculture Scientist and Experts in the area of Sweet Orange Plantation with an excellent team of computer Engineers, Programmers and designers. This Expert System contains two main parts one is Sweet Orange Infor...

Engineering judgement and bridging the fire safety gap in existing nuclear facilities

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Qamheiah, G.; Wu, Y., E-mail: gqamheiah@plcfire.com, E-mail: dwu@plcfire.com [PLC Fire Safety Solutions, Mississauga, ON (Canada)

2014-07-01

Canadian nuclear power plants were constructed in the 1960's through the 1980's. Fire safety considerations were largely based on guidance from general building and fire codes in effect at the time. Since then, nuclear specific fire safety standards have been developed and adopted by the Regulator, increasing the expected level of fire safety in the process. Application of the standards to existing plants was largely limited to operational requirements viewed as retroactive. However, as existing facilities undergo modifications or refurbishment for the purpose of life extension, the expectation is that the design requirements of these fire safety standards also be satisfied. This creates considerable challenges for existing nuclear power plants as fire safety requirements such as those intended to assure means for safe egress, prevention of fire spread and protection of redundancy rely upon fire protection features that are inherent in the physical infrastructural design. This paper focuses on the methodology for conducting fire safety gap analyses on existing plants, and the integral role that engineering judgement plays in the development of viable and cost effective solutions to achieve the objectives of the current fire safety standards. (author)

Medical Expert Systems Survey

OpenAIRE

Abu-Nasser, Bassem S.

2017-01-01

International audience; There is an increased interest in the area of Artificial Intelligence in general and expert systems in particular. Expert systems are rapidly growing technology. Expert systems are a branch of Artificial Intelligence which is having a great impact on many fields of human life. Expert systems use human expert knowledge to solve complex problems in many fields such as Health, science, engineering, business, and weather forecasting. Organizations employing the technology ...

Strategy for Developing Expert-System-Based Internet Protocols (TCP/IP)

Science.gov (United States)

Ivancic, William D.

1997-01-01

The Satellite Networks and Architectures Branch of NASA's Lewis Research is addressing the issue of seamless interoperability of satellite networks with terrestrial networks. One of the major issues is improving reliable transmission protocols such as TCP over long latency and error-prone links. Many tuning parameters are available to enhance the performance of TCP including segment size, timers and window sizes. There are also numerous congestion avoidance algorithms such as slow start, selective retransmission and selective acknowledgment that are utilized to improve performance. This paper provides a strategy to characterize the performance of TCP relative to various parameter settings in a variety of network environments (i.e. LAN, WAN, wireless, satellite, and IP over ATM). This information can then be utilized to develop expert-system-based Internet protocols.

Modeling the Construct of an Expert Evidence-Adaptive Knowledge Base for a Pressure Injury Clinical Decision Support System

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Peck Chui Betty Khong

2017-07-01

Full Text Available The selection of appropriate wound products for the treatment of pressure injuries is paramount in promoting wound healing. However, nurses find it difficult to decide on the most optimal wound product(s due to limited live experiences in managing pressure injuries resulting from successfully implemented pressure injury prevention programs. The challenges of effective decision-making in wound treatments by nurses at the point of care are compounded by the yearly release of wide arrays of newly researched wound products into the consumer market. A clinical decision support system for pressure injury (PI-CDSS was built to facilitate effective decision-making and selection of optimal wound treatments. This paper describes the development of PI-CDSS with an expert knowledge base using an interactive development environment, Blaze Advisor. A conceptual framework using decision-making and decision theory, knowledge representation, and process modelling guided the construct of the PI-CDSS. This expert system has incorporated the practical and relevant decision knowledge of wound experts in assessment and wound treatments in its algorithm. The construct of the PI-CDSS is adaptive, with scalable capabilities for expansion to include other CDSSs and interoperability to interface with other existing clinical and administrative systems. The algorithm was formatively evaluated and tested for usability. The treatment modalities generated after using patient-specific assessment data were found to be consistent with the treatment plan(s proposed by the wound experts. The overall agreement exceeded 90% between the wound experts and the generated treatment modalities for the choice of wound products, instructions, and alerts. The PI-CDSS serves as a just-in-time wound treatment protocol with suggested clinical actions for nurses, based on the best evidence available.

Inter-expert and intra-expert reliability in sleep spindle scoring

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wendt, Sabrina Lyngbye; Welinder, Peter; Sørensen, Helge Bjarup Dissing

2015-01-01

Objectives To measure the inter-expert and intra-expert agreement in sleep spindle scoring, and to quantify how many experts are needed to build a reliable dataset of sleep spindle scorings. Methods The EEG dataset was comprised of 400 randomly selected 115 s segments of stage 2 sleep from 110...... with higher reliability than the estimation of spindle duration. Reliability of sleep spindle scoring can be improved by using qualitative confidence scores, rather than a dichotomous yes/no scoring system. Conclusions We estimate that 2–3 experts are needed to build a spindle scoring dataset...... with ‘substantial’ reliability (κ: 0.61–0.8), and 4 or more experts are needed to build a dataset with ‘almost perfect’ reliability (κ: 0.81–1). Significance Spindle scoring is a critical part of sleep staging, and spindles are believed to play an important role in development, aging, and diseases of the nervous...

Image-based teleconsultation using smartphones or tablets: qualitative assessment of medical experts.

Science.gov (United States)

Boissin, Constance; Blom, Lisa; Wallis, Lee; Laflamme, Lucie

2017-02-01

Mobile health has promising potential in improving healthcare delivery by facilitating access to expert advice. Enabling experts to review images on their smartphone or tablet may save valuable time. This study aims at assessing whether images viewed by medical specialists on handheld devices such as smartphones and tablets are perceived to be of comparable quality as when viewed on a computer screen. This was a prospective study comparing the perceived quality of 18 images on three different display devices (smartphone, tablet and computer) by 27 participants (4 burn surgeons and 23 emergency medicine specialists). The images, presented in random order, covered clinical (dermatological conditions, burns, ECGs and X-rays) and non-clinical subjects and their perceived quality was assessed using a 7-point Likert scale. Differences in devices' quality ratings were analysed using linear regression models for clustered data adjusting for image type and participants' characteristics (age, gender and medical specialty). Overall, the images were rated good or very good in most instances and more so for the smartphone (83.1%, mean score 5.7) and tablet (78.2%, mean 5.5) than for a standard computer (70.6%, mean 5.2). Both handheld devices had significantly higher ratings than the computer screen, even after controlling for image type and participants' characteristics. Nearly all experts expressed that they would be comfortable using smartphones (n=25) or tablets (n=26) for image-based teleconsultation. This study suggests that handheld devices could be a substitute for computer screens for teleconsultation by physicians working in emergency settings. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

The contribution of research on expertise to understanding of expert thinking

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Krnjaić Zora

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Expertise is determined based on the high level of mastery of knowledge and skills in different areas of human activities (science, art, sports and other less formal domains. This paper explores the contribution of empirical research on expertise to understanding of the nature of expert thinking. For that purpose we have compiled an overview and performed an analysis of the findings of relevant research on expertise based on different approaches and paradigms. We have included the studies that researched experts singled out based on their exceptional performances in different domains (absolute expertise and the studies based on comparing experts with novices (relative expertise. We have analyzed the studies using different paradigms: psychometric and cognitive paradigms, as well as the new offshoot, the paradigm based on viewing giftedness as developing expertise. Research results provide empirically grounded findings on the characteristics of expert thinking and consistently point to the fact that knowledge is the core of expertise. The characteristics of expert knowledge are operationalized via the quantity and organization of knowledge and the mastery of deep contents and knowledge systems, which enables the recognition of rules, models and information sets, as well as the use of knowledge in further studying, detecting and solving different problems. It can be concluded that research findings on expertise are one of the foundations in the conceptualization of expert thinking. They significantly contribute to obtaining an insight into the way in which knowledge shapes thought and into understanding the mechanisms of demonstrating knowledge in the mental processes of experts.

An approach to quality classification of deep groundwaters in Sweden and Finland

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Laaksoharju, M.; Smellie, J.; Ruotsalainen, P.; Snellman, M.

1993-11-01

The quality and representativeness of groundwaters sampled in the Swedish SKB and in the Finnish TVO nuclear waste disposal site investigations have been evaluated. By definition a high quality sample is considered to be the one which best reflects the undisturbed hydrological and geochemical in situ conditions for the sampled section. Manual (expert judgement), statistical multivariate, mixing models and quality scoring system have been used to classify the waters regarding representativity. The constructed scoring system is best suited for quality classification, although the expert judgement is always needed as a complement. The observations are scored on a continuous scale based on the response of selected quality indicating parameters. Less representative samples are not rejected but given a value indicating the confidence of the observation. Finnish data obtained 45% of the possible scores compared to 55% for the Swedish data. The quality is generally 10% higher in the Swedish samples compared to the Finnish samples. The difference in sampling procedure is the probable reason for this

Expert Systems: An Introduction -46 ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

Research Scientist in the. Knowledge Based. Computer Systems Group at NeST. He is one of the ... Expert systems encode human expertise in limited domains ... answers questions the user has and provides an explanation of its reasoning.

Expert system for quality control in the INIS database

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Todeschini, C.; Tolstenkov, A.

1990-05-01

An expert system developed to identify input items to INIS database with a high probability of containing errors is described. The system employs a Knowledge Base constructed by the interpretation of a large number of intellectual choices or expert decisions made by human indexers and incorporated in the INIS database. On the basis of the descriptor indexing, the system checks the correctness of the categorization. A notable feature of the system is its capability of self improvement by the continuous updating of the Knowledge Base. The expert system has also been found to be extremely useful in identifying documents with poor indexing. 3 refs, 9 figs

Expert system for quality control in the INIS database

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Todeschini, C; Tolstenkov, A [International Atomic Energy Agency, Vienna (Austria)

1990-05-01

An expert system developed to identify input items to INIS database with a high probability of containing errors is described. The system employs a Knowledge Base constructed by the interpretation of a large number of intellectual choices or expert decisions made by human indexers and incorporated in the INIS database. On the basis of the descriptor indexing, the system checks the correctness of the categorization. A notable feature of the system is its capability of self improvement by the continuous updating of the Knowledge Base. The expert system has also been found to be extremely useful in identifying documents with poor indexing. 3 refs, 9 figs.

The diagnose of oil palm disease using Naive Bayes Method based on Expert System Technology

Science.gov (United States)

Nababan, Marlince; Laia, Yonata; Sitanggang, Delima; Sihombing, Oloan; Indra, Evta; Siregar, Saut; Purba, Windania; Mancur, Roy

2018-04-01

Expert system is dealt with system that used computer-based human intelligence to overcome particular problem which is commonly conducted by an expert. Frequent problem faced by the farmers of oil palm is the difficulty in defining the type of plant disease. As a result, the delay treatment of plant disease brings out the declining of farm products. An application system is needed to deal with the obstacles and diagnosing the type of oil palm plant disease. The researcher designed an intelligence-based application with input-output plan which is able to diagnose the type of oil palm plant disease by applying naive bayes method. Based on the research result by conducting bayes method with recognized symptom, diagnose of oil palm plant disease could be accomplished. The data of symptoms found are leaves turned yellow 0.4, dead leaves 0.4, black and brown color among the veins of leaves 0.5, young and old fruit with whole space 0.4, and decay of bunches is 0.3. The roots are tender in the amount of 0.5, and damage on sheath is 0.3. Through the chosen symptoms as mentioned above, the value of bayes is 80% with the type of disease is rotten bunch.

Towards real persons: Clinical judgement and philosophy of psychiatry

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tim Thornton

2007-08-01

Full Text Available One of the motivations for the new philosophy of psychiatry is the need to understand changing ideas in mental health care. In the last century, changes in both physical and biological theory prompted work in philosophy of physics and philosophy of biology to understand those fields better, attempts which were continuous with empirical work. At the start of this century, changes in psychiatry promise increased interest in the philosophy of psychiatry as an attempt, alongside empirical research, to understand the conceptual underpinnings of mental heath care. While philosophical methods are distinct from empirical methods, the work is truly interdisciplinary, growing organically from the complexities of demand on psychiatric care and, although philosophical, carried out by philosophers and psychiatrists alike. One focus is the nature of clinical judgement in psychiatric diagnosis. In this short note I will briefly sketch some issues that arise from a current idea: that psychiatric diagnosis should include idiographic elements.

Guerra, terror, julgamento War, terror, judgement

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. B. J. Walker

2003-12-01

Full Text Available O presente artigo responde a uma variedade de tentativas precoces de interpretar o significado mais amplo da violência do 11 de setembro de 2001. Seu argumento central diz respeito às bases do julgamento político. Aborda uma variedade de interpretações correntes para as formas contemporâneas de violência em parte relacionadas às alegações de uma política weberiana de responsabilidade, em parte relacionadas às tensões estruturais entre princípios de multilateralismo e unilateralismo. O artigo sugere que nem o multilateralismo nem o unilateralismo são suficientes para dar conta das questões sobre autoridade legítima e violência, para as quais o 11 de setembro de 2001 pelo menos trouxe um pouco mais de clareza. Conclui com uma breve alusão à crescente dificuldade para se desenhar linhas, não somente entre os civilizados e os bárbaros, mas também as linhas físicas que foram usadas para criar o sistema moderno de Estados, em muitos contextos, mas esta é uma dificuldade que está na raiz de problemas mais sérios envolvidos na formação do julgamento político moderno.This article responds to the variety of early attempts to interpret the broader significance of the violence of September 11, 2001. Its central argument concerns the grounds for political judgement. It reads a variety of current interpretations of contemporary forms of violence partly in relation to claims about a Weberian politics of responsibility and partly in relation to structural tensions between principles of multilateralism and unilateralism. Neither multilateralism nor unilateralism, the article suggests, is sufficient to engage the questions about legitimate authority and violence to which September 11, 2001 at least brought greater clarity. It concludes with a brief allusion to the increasing difficulty of drawing lines; not only lines between the civilized and the barbarian but also the physical lines that have been used to create a modern system of

Using the Hand Laterality Judgement Task to assess motor imagery : a study of practice effects in repeated measurements

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Boonstra, Anne M.; de Vries, Sjoerd J.; Veenstra, Evelien; Tepper, Marga; Feenstra, Wya; Otten, Egbert

The aim of this study was to determine whether there is a practice effect on the Hand Laterality Judgement Task (HLJT). The HLJT task is a mental rotation task that can be used to assess motor imagery ability in stroke patients. Thirty-three healthy individuals performed the HLJT and two control

The use of Fuzzy expert system in robots decision-making

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jamaseb, Mehdi; Jafari, Shahram; Montaseri, Farshid; Dadgar, Masoud

2014-01-01

The main issue that is investigated in this paper, is a method for decision making of mobile robots in different conditions for this purpose, we have used expert system. In this way, that the conditions of the robot are analyzed by on expert person a special issue (like following a ball) using knowledge base and suitable decisions will be mode. Then, using this information fuzzy rules well be built, and using its rules, robots decisions can be implemented like an expert person. In this study, we have used delta3d base for implementing expert systems and CLIPS and also we have used NAO for simulation rcssserver3d robot and 3d football simulation have been used for implementing operation program

Beta adrenergic blockade reduces utilitarian judgement

Science.gov (United States)

Sylvia, Terbeck; Guy, Kahane; Sarah, McTavish; Julian, Savulescu; Neil, Levy; Miles, Hewstone; Cowen, Philip J.

2013-01-01

Noradrenergic pathways are involved in mediating the central and peripheral effects of physiological arousal. The aim of the present study was to investigate the role of noradrenergic transmission in moral decision-making. We studied the effects in healthy volunteers of propranolol (a noradrenergic beta-adrenoceptor antagonist) on moral judgement in a set of moral dilemmas pitting utilitarian outcomes (e.g., saving five lives) against highly aversive harmful actions (e.g., killing an innocent person) in a double-blind, placebo-controlled, parallel group design. Propranolol (40 mg orally) significantly reduced heart rate, but had no effect on self-reported mood. Importantly, propranolol made participants more likely to judge harmful actions as morally unacceptable, but only in dilemmas where harms were ‘up close and personal’. In addition, longer response times for such personal dilemmas were only found for the placebo group. Finally, judgments in personal dilemmas by the propranolol group were more decisive. These findings indicate that noradrenergic pathways play a role in responses to moral dilemmas, in line with recent work implicating emotion in moral decision-making. However, contrary to current theorising, these findings also suggest that aversion to harming is not driven by emotional arousal. Our findings are also of significant practical interest given that propranolol is a widely used drug in different settings, and is currently being considered as a potential treatment for post-traumatic stress disorder in military and rescue service personnel. PMID:23085134

Comments on SKB's SFL 3-5 preliminary performance assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wilmot, R.D.; Crawford, M.B.

2000-01-01

values. These uses of expert judgement in assessments are discussed more extensively in a recent study for SKI. The key point to be made about the use of judgements is that they must be documented in such a way that not only can the judgements themselves be examined but so too can the basis for them. Only in this way can judgements be properly reviewed and confidence developed in the results of an assessment based on them. Very similar comments apply to SFL 3-5 as were made in our review of SR 97 regarding the use of expert judgement. There is no formal documentation of the expert judgements made at the various stages of the development of the SFL 3-5 assessment, although the use of expert judgement is recognised by SKB. Therefore, the ownership of the judgements (i.e., who made them, how they were made, and why) cannot be determined, and the review and approval process applied to these judgements cannot be assessed. The assessment is at a preliminary stage, and this may preclude the extensive use of expert elicitation as a judgement tool. However, dialogue and peer review could both be applied beneficially to build confidence in the assessment. The stated purpose of the SFL 3-5 preliminary assessment is to examine the effects on calculated doses of different hydrological and biosphere conditions. In this sense, it would be appropriate for the assessment to be restricted to a limited set of scenarios, but only if such scenarios were clearly defined and allowed different aspects of the disposal system to be examined and sensitivities to be assessed. In the SFL 3-5 PA, SKB defines four scenarios, of which two have been used for performance calculations - a Reference Scenario and a Future Human Actions Scenario. However, neither of these scenarios adequately fulfil the requirements of clarity or usefulness. The principal issues of concern are: There is no structured reporting of a set of potentially important FEPs, or of the basis for omitting FEPs from the assessment

Online NPP monitoring with neuro-expert system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nabeshima, K.

2002-01-01

This study present a hybrid monitoring system for nuclear power plant utilizing neural networks and a rule-based expert system. The whole monitoring system including a data acquisition system and the advisory displays has been tested by an on-line simulator of pressurized water reactor. From the testing results, it was shown that the neural network in the monitoring system successfully modeled the plant dynamics and detected the symptoms of anomalies earlier than the conventional alarm system. The expert system also worked satisfactorily in diagnosing and displaying the system status by using the outputs of neural networks and a priori knowledge base

Using XML and XSLT for flexible elicitation of mental-health risk knowledge.

Science.gov (United States)

Buckingham, C D; Ahmed, A; Adams, A E

2007-03-01

Current tools for assessing risks associated with mental-health problems require assessors to make high-level judgements based on clinical experience. This paper describes how new technologies can enhance qualitative research methods to identify lower-level cues underlying these judgements, which can be collected by people without a specialist mental-health background. Content analysis of interviews with 46 multidisciplinary mental-health experts exposed the cues and their interrelationships, which were represented by a mind map using software that stores maps as XML. All 46 mind maps were integrated into a single XML knowledge structure and analysed by a Lisp program to generate quantitative information about the numbers of experts associated with each part of it. The knowledge was refined by the experts, using software developed in Flash to record their collective views within the XML itself. These views specified how the XML should be transformed by XSLT, a technology for rendering XML, which resulted in a validated hierarchical knowledge structure associating patient cues with risks. Changing knowledge elicitation requirements were accommodated by flexible transformations of XML data using XSLT, which also facilitated generation of multiple data-gathering tools suiting different assessment circumstances and levels of mental-health knowledge.

The Finishing Touch: Anatomy of Expert Lesson Closures

Science.gov (United States)

Webster, Collin A.; Connolly, Graeme; Schempp, Paul G.

2009-01-01

Background: Based on the idea that students remember best what is presented last, the lesson closure is commonly identified as an important component of effective teaching and has recently surfaced as a routine practice of expert teachers in sport. Despite its link to both effective and expert instruction, the lesson closure has seen scarce…

A framework for building real-time expert systems