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Sample records for based expert judgement

  1. Expert judgement in performance assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilmot, R.D.; Galson, D.A.

    2000-01-01

    This report is a pilot study that systematically describes the various types of expert judgement that are made throughout the development of a PA, and summarizes existing tools and practices for dealing with expert judgements. The report also includes recommendations for further work in the area of expert judgement. Expert judgements can be classified in a number of ways, including classification according to why the judgements are made and according to how the judgements are made. In terms of why judgements are made, there is a broad distinction between: Judgements concerning data that are made because alternatives are not feasible; and Judgements about the conduct of a PA that are made because there are no alternative approaches for making the decision. In the case of how judgements are made, the report distinguishes between non-elicited judgements made by individuals, non-elicited judgements made by groups, and elicited judgements made by individuals or groups. These types of judgement can generally be distinguished by the extent of the associated documentation, and hence their traceability. Tools for assessing judgements vary depending on the type of judgements being examined. Key tools are peer review, an appropriate QA regime, documentation, and elicitation. Dialogue with stake holders is also identified as important in establishing whether judgements are justified in the context in which they are used. The PA process comprises a number of stages, from establishing the assessment context, through site selection and repository design, to scenario and model development and parametrisation. The report discusses how judgements are used in each of these stages, and identifies which of the tools and procedures for assessing judgements are most appropriate at each stage. Recommendations for further work include the conduct of a trial expert elicitation to gain experience in the advantages and disadvantages of this technique, the development of guidance for peer

  2. Evaluation of a Delphi technique based expert judgement method for LCA valuation - DELPHI II

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hakala, S.; Wilson, B.

    1999-01-01

    Transparency and certainty are essential qualities for an acceptable and trusted valuation method. Based on the evaluation of the expert judgement method developed in the Delphi I study both of these criteria may be only partially accomplished by such a method. As for the technical procedure the method is well documented and transparency is good. Argumentation of the judgements, however, should be increased. The quality of the valuation indexes is explicitly available, but their certainty is very low for most interventions. The opinions of the experts differ much from each other. How much this depends on different values and how much on differences in knowledge etc. is impossible to assess. Also, how much the technique used and the statistical handling of the expert answers may have impacted the eventual scores of different interventions is difficult to assess. However, application of the expert judgement by means of the Delphi-technique to LCA valuation is a new idea, and, consequently, the method is still very much under development, far from maturity. This should be taken into account when considering the results out of the evaluation of the case study, which was the third of the kind in Europe

  3. Evaluation of a Delphi technique based expert judgement method for LCA valuation - DELPHI II

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Virtanen, Y.; Torkkeli, S. [VTT Chemical Technology, Espoo (Finland). Environmental Technology; Wilson, B. [Landbank Environmental Research and Consulting, London (United Kingdom)

    1999-07-01

    Because of the complexity and trade-offs between different points of the life cycles of the analysed systems, a method which measures the environmental damage caused by each intervention is needed in order to make a choice between the products. However, there is no commonly agreed methodology for this particular purpose. In most of the methods the valuation is implicitly or explicitly based on economic criteria. For various reasons, however, economically obtained criteria do not necessarily reflect ecological arguments correctly. Thus, there is a need for new, ecologically based valuation methods. One such approach is the expert judgement method, based on the Delphi technique, which rejects the economic basis in favour of the judgements of a group of environmental experts. However, it is not self evident that the expert judgement based environmental rating of interventions will be essentially more correct and certain than other methods. In this study the method was evaluated at different points of the procedure in order to obtain a picture of the quality of the indexes produced. The evaluation was based on an actual Delphi study made in 1995-1996 in Finland, Sweden and Norway. The main questions addressed were the significance of the results and the operational quality of the Delphi procedure. The results obtained by applying the expert method indexes were also compared with the results obtained with other valuation methods for the background life cycle inventory of the case study. Additional material included feedback data from panellists of the case study, collected with a questionnaire. The questionnaire data was analysed to identify major dimensions in the criteria for evaluating interventions and correlation of the final indexes of the Delphi I study with these dimensions. The rest of the questionnaire material was used to document panellists' opinions and experiences of the Delphi process, familiarity with the environmental impacts of various

  4. Evaluation of a Delphi technique based expert judgement method for LCA valuation - DELPHI II

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Virtanen, Y.; Torkkeli, S.

    1999-01-01

    Because of the complexity and trade-offs between different points of the life cycles of the analysed systems, a method which measures the environmental damage caused by each intervention is needed in order to make a choice between the products. However, there is no commonly agreed methodology for this particular purpose. In most of the methods the valuation is implicitly or explicitly based on economic criteria. For various reasons, however, economically obtained criteria do not necessarily reflect ecological arguments correctly. Thus, there is a need for new, ecologically based valuation methods. One such approach is the expert judgement method, based on the Delphi technique, which rejects the economic basis in favour of the judgements of a group of environmental experts. However, it is not self evident that the expert judgement based environmental rating of interventions will be essentially more correct and certain than other methods. In this study the method was evaluated at different points of the procedure in order to obtain a picture of the quality of the indexes produced. The evaluation was based on an actual Delphi study made in 1995-1996 in Finland, Sweden and Norway. The main questions addressed were the significance of the results and the operational quality of the Delphi procedure. The results obtained by applying the expert method indexes were also compared with the results obtained with other valuation methods for the background life cycle inventory of the case study. Additional material included feedback data from panellists of the case study, collected with a questionnaire. The questionnaire data was analysed to identify major dimensions in the criteria for evaluating interventions and correlation of the final indexes of the Delphi I study with these dimensions. The rest of the questionnaire material was used to document panellists' opinions and experiences of the Delphi process, familiarity with the environmental impacts of various interventions

  5. Expert judgement models in quantitative risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rosqvist, T.; Tuominen, R.

    1999-01-01

    Expert judgement is a valuable source of information in risk management. Especially, risk-based decision making relies significantly on quantitative risk assessment, which requires numerical data describing the initiator event frequencies and conditional probabilities in the risk model. This data is seldom found in databases and has to be elicited from qualified experts. In this report, we discuss some modelling approaches to expert judgement in risk modelling. A classical and a Bayesian expert model is presented and applied to real case expert judgement data. The cornerstone in the models is the log-normal distribution, which is argued to be a satisfactory choice for modelling degree-of-belief type probability distributions with respect to the unknown parameters in a risk model. Expert judgements are qualified according to bias, dispersion, and dependency, which are treated differently in the classical and Bayesian approaches. The differences are pointed out and related to the application task. Differences in the results obtained from the different approaches, as applied to real case expert judgement data, are discussed. Also, the role of a degree-of-belief type probability in risk decision making is discussed

  6. Expert judgement combination using moment methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wisse, Bram; Bedford, Tim; Quigley, John

    2008-01-01

    Moment methods have been employed in decision analysis, partly to avoid the computational burden that decision models involving continuous probability distributions can suffer from. In the Bayes linear (BL) methodology prior judgements about uncertain quantities are specified using expectation (rather than probability) as the fundamental notion. BL provides a strong foundation for moment methods, rooted in work of De Finetti and Goldstein. The main objective of this paper is to discuss in what way expert assessments of moments can be combined, in a non-Bayesian way, to construct a prior assessment. We show that the linear pool can be justified in an analogous but technically different way to linear pools for probability assessments, and that this linear pool has a very convenient property: a linear pool of experts' assessments of moments is coherent if each of the experts has given coherent assessments. To determine the weights of the linear pool we give a method of performance based weighting analogous to Cooke's classical model and explore its properties. Finally, we compare its performance with the classical model on data gathered in applications of the classical model

  7. Statistical models for expert judgement and wear prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pulkkinen, U.

    1994-01-01

    This thesis studies the statistical analysis of expert judgements and prediction of wear. The point of view adopted is the one of information theory and Bayesian statistics. A general Bayesian framework for analyzing both the expert judgements and wear prediction is presented. Information theoretic interpretations are given for some averaging techniques used in the determination of consensus distributions. Further, information theoretic models are compared with a Bayesian model. The general Bayesian framework is then applied in analyzing expert judgements based on ordinal comparisons. In this context, the value of information lost in the ordinal comparison process is analyzed by applying decision theoretic concepts. As a generalization of the Bayesian framework, stochastic filtering models for wear prediction are formulated. These models utilize the information from condition monitoring measurements in updating the residual life distribution of mechanical components. Finally, the application of stochastic control models in optimizing operational strategies for inspected components are studied. Monte-Carlo simulation methods, such as the Gibbs sampler and the stochastic quasi-gradient method, are applied in the determination of posterior distributions and in the solution of stochastic optimization problems. (orig.) (57 refs., 7 figs., 1 tab.)

  8. Processing Expert Judgements in Accident Consequence Modelling (invited paper)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kraan, B.C.P.; Cooke, R.M.

    2000-01-01

    In performing uncertainty analysis a distribution on the code input parameters is required. The construction of the distribution on the code input parameters for the joint CEC/USNRC Accident Consequence Code Uncertainty Analysis using Expert Judgement is discussed. An example from the food chain module is used to illustrate the construction. Different mathematical techniques have been developed to transform the expert judgements into the required format. Finally, the effect of taking account of correlations in performing uncertainty analysis is investigated. (author)

  9. Use of expert judgement in NUREG-1150

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ortiz, N.R.; Wheeler, T.A.; Breeding, R.J.; Hora, S.; Meyer, M.A.; Kenney, R.L.

    1991-01-01

    The explicit expert judgment process used in NUREG-1150, 'Severe Accident Risks: An Assessment for Five US Nuclear Plants', is discussed in this paper. The main steps of the process are described, including selection of issues and experts, elicitation training, presentation of issues to the experts, preparation of issue analyses by the experts, discussion of issue analyses and elicitation, and recomposition and aggregation of results. To demonstrate the application of the expert judgment process to NUREG-1150, two issues are summarized: one from the accident frequency analysis, and one from the accident progression analysis. Recommendations and insights are provided to improve the use of explicit expert judgment in complex technical issues. (orig.)

  10. Procedures Guide for Structural Expert Judgement in Accident Consequence Modelling (invited paper)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cooke, R.M.; Goossens, L.H.J.

    2000-01-01

    A protocol is outlined for using structured expert judgement to generate uncertainty data for uncertainty analyses. The use of performance based weighting as an instrument to enable optimisation of the aggregated experts' assessments is emphasised. Examples are shown from the EC/USNRC joint study on Probabilistic Accident Consequence Uncertainty Analysis. (author)

  11. Risk and reliability analyses (LURI) and expert judgement techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pyy, P.; Pulkkinen, U.

    1998-01-01

    Probabilistic safety analysis (PSA) is currently used as a regulatory licensing tool in risk informed and plant performance based regulation. More often also utility safety improvements are based on PSA calculations as one criterion. PSA attempts to comprehensively identify all important risk contributors, compare them with each other, assess the safety level and suggest improvements based on its findings. The strength of PSA is that it is capable to provide decision makers with numerical estimates of risks. This makes decision making easier than the comparison of purely qualitative results. PSA is the only comprehensive tool that compactly attempts to include all the important risk contributors in its scope. Despite the demonstrated strengths of PSA, there are some features that have reduced its uses. For example, the PSA scope has been limited to the power operation and process internal events (transients and LOCAs). Only lately, areas such as shutdown, external events and severe accidents have been included in PSA models in many countries. Problems related to modelling are, e.g., that rather static fault and event tree models are commonly used in PSA to model dynamic event sequences. Even if a valid model may be generated, there may not be any other data sources to be used than expert judgement. Furthermore, there are a variety of different techniques for human reliability assessment (HRA) giving varying results. In the project Reliability and Risk Analyses (LURI) these limitations and shortcomings have been studied. In the decision making area, case studies on the application of decision analysis and a doctoral thesis have been published. Further, practical aid has been given to utilities and regulatory decision making. Model uncertainty effect on PSA results has been demonstrated by two case studies. Human reliability has been studied both in the integrated safety analysis study and in the study of maintenance originated NPP component faults based on the

  12. Expert judgements in performance assessments. Report of an SKI/SSI seminar

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wilmot, R.D.; Galson, D.A. [Galson Sciences Ltd, Oakham (United Kingdom); Hora, S.C. [Univ. of Hawaii, Hilo, HI (United States)

    2000-09-01

    Expert judgements are an important element of all performance assessments and are made when alternative approaches to decision-making are not available or are not feasible. Decisions regarding the scope of a particular assessment or the type of modelling approach adopted must be made through judgements because there are no observations that can be made. Similarly, any assumptions concerning human activities in the far future are essentially speculative and must be based on expert judgement. Observations of spatial heterogeneity within a disposal system may, on the other hand, be theoretically possible but not be feasible because of excessive cost or because they would adversely affect the system they were intended to characterise. Because there is a wide range of judgements made within a performance assessment, there are several ways of making the judgements and of assessing how they have been made. Judgements may, for example, be made by individuals or by groups, and they may be formally elicited or made without formal elicitation. Dialogue with stake holders can be an important means of assessing judgements, as can peer review. Documentation is a key element throughout the process of making and reviewing judgements, and appropriate quality assurance procedures can also build confidence in judgements. In order to develop an understanding of the processes of making and assessing judgements, the Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate (SKI) and the Swedish Radiation Protection Institute (SSI) jointly sponsored a seminar entitled 'The Use of Expert Judgements in Performance Assessments'. The seminar was held in Norrtaelje, Sweden, on 17-19 January 2000. The seminar was organised by Galson Sciences Ltd (GSL) on behalf of SKI, and conducted jointly by GSL and Professor Steve Hora of the University of Hawaii. Participants at the seminar included SKI and SSI staff and independent experts. A key element of the seminar was an illustrative expert elicitation session

  13. Expert judgements in performance assessments. Report of an SKI/SSI seminar

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilmot, R.D.; Galson, D.A.; Hora, S.C.

    2000-09-01

    Expert judgements are an important element of all performance assessments and are made when alternative approaches to decision-making are not available or are not feasible. Decisions regarding the scope of a particular assessment or the type of modelling approach adopted must be made through judgements because there are no observations that can be made. Similarly, any assumptions concerning human activities in the far future are essentially speculative and must be based on expert judgement. Observations of spatial heterogeneity within a disposal system may, on the other hand, be theoretically possible but not be feasible because of excessive cost or because they would adversely affect the system they were intended to characterise. Because there is a wide range of judgements made within a performance assessment, there are several ways of making the judgements and of assessing how they have been made. Judgements may, for example, be made by individuals or by groups, and they may be formally elicited or made without formal elicitation. Dialogue with stake holders can be an important means of assessing judgements, as can peer review. Documentation is a key element throughout the process of making and reviewing judgements, and appropriate quality assurance procedures can also build confidence in judgements. In order to develop an understanding of the processes of making and assessing judgements, the Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate (SKI) and the Swedish Radiation Protection Institute (SSI) jointly sponsored a seminar entitled 'The Use of Expert Judgements in Performance Assessments'. The seminar was held in Norrtaelje, Sweden, on 17-19 January 2000. The seminar was organised by Galson Sciences Ltd (GSL) on behalf of SKI, and conducted jointly by GSL and Professor Steve Hora of the University of Hawaii. Participants at the seminar included SKI and SSI staff and independent experts. A key element of the seminar was an illustrative expert elicitation session, designed to

  14. Comparison of Pattern Classification Methods in Crossarm Reuse Judgement System Based on Rust Images

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamana, Michiko; Murata, Hiroshi; Onoda, Takashi; Ohashi, Tohru; Kato, Seiji

    Japanese electric power companies currently utilize existing equipments completely and maintain facilities effectively. Human experts presently judge various hardwares whether they are be reusable or not to utilize equipments completely. Especially, this paper considers about crossarm reuse judgement. This judgement is based on rust, which attaches on crossarms, by human experts. However, this judgement depends on human expertise and it is difficult to keep constant judgement accuracy. Electric power companies want to take constant and good judgement accuracy. Therefore, we develop a crossarm reuse judgement system based on rust images using machine learning techniques. The system consists of commercial microscope and standard note PC to keep the cost. And we estimate the judgement accuracy of various pattern classification methods without the special image processing such as extracting features. The results show that support vector machine is the most suitable method for this judgement system.

  15. A review of expert judgement and treatment of probability in SR 97

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilmot, R.D.; Crawford, M.B.

    2000-01-01

    The Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) recently published its latest performance assessment for deep disposal of spent nuclear fuel, based on the KBS-3 concept. This assessment, SR 97, uses three hypothetical repository sites (known as Aberg, Beberg and Ceberg) to provide a range of geological settings and hydrogeological conditions for the assessment. The long-term performance of these sites is compared for several sets of assumptions relating to canister lifetimes, climate evolution, and patterns of human behaviour. This report is a review of SR 97 conducted by Galson Sciences Ltd on behalf of the Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate (SKI). The review focussed on the use of expert judgement in the assessment and on the treatment of uncertainty and the use of probability in assessment calculations. The review of SR 97 concluded that SKB had identified many of the judgements made in developing and implementing the assessment and modelling approaches, but that a more formal documentation of the assumptions involved would add to the clarity and transparency of the use of judgements. Similarly, explicit acknowledgement of the basis for making judgements about the treatment of FEPs would improve confidence in the assessment. There are a number of tools that can be useful in justifying the judgements made in an assessment. The review concluded that more use of dialogue with stake holders, peer review and expert elicitation could all be of value in SKB's assessment programme. Recently introduced regulations in Sweden have established an individual risk criterion for the long-term performance of repositories. SKB has previously identified 'pessimistic' and 'reasonable' values for a number of model parameters, and used these in a range of deterministic calculations to calculate dose and to illustrate system performance. To allow for the calculation of risk, SKB introduced probabilistic analyses into the SR 97 assessment by assigning probabilities of 10

  16. Coupling systematic planning and expert judgement enhances the efficiency of river restoration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langhans, Simone D; Gessner, Jörn; Hermoso, Virgilio; Wolter, Christian

    2016-08-01

    Ineffectiveness of current river restoration practices hinders the achievement of ecological quality targets set by country-specific regulations. Recent advances in river restoration help planning efforts more systematically to reach ecological targets at the least costs. However, such approaches are often desktop-based and overlook real-world constraints. We argue that combining two techniques commonly used in the conservation arena - expert judgement and systematic planning - will deliver cost-effective restoration plans with a high potential for implementation. We tested this idea targeting the restoration of spawning habitat, i.e. gravel bars, for 11 rheophilic fish species along a river system in Germany (Havel-Spree rivers). With a group of local fish experts, we identified the location and extent of potential gravel bars along the rivers and necessary improvements to migration barriers to ensure fish passage. Restoration cost of each gravel bar included the cost of the action itself plus a fraction of the cost necessary to ensure longitudinal connectivity by upgrading or building fish passages located downstream. We set restoration targets according to the EU Water Framework Directive, i.e. relative abundance of 11 fish species in the reference community and optimised a restoration plan by prioritising a subset of restoration sites from the full set of identified sites, using the conservation planning software Marxan. Out of the 66 potential gravel bars, 36 sites which were mainly located in the downstream section of the system were selected, reflecting their cost-effectiveness given that fewer barriers needed intervention. Due to the limited overall number of sites that experts identified as being suitable for restoring spawning habitat, reaching abundance-targets was challenged. We conclude that coupling systematic river restoration planning with expert judgement produces optimised restoration plans that account for on-the-ground implementation constraints

  17. A risk-informed approach of quantification of epistemic uncertainty for the long-term radioactive waste disposal. Improving reliability of expert judgements with an advanced elicitation procedure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sugiyama, Daisuke; Chida, Taiji; Fujita, Tomonari; Tsukamoto, Masaki

    2011-01-01

    A quantification methodology of epistemic uncertainty by expert judgement based on the risk-informed approach is developed to assess inevitable uncertainty for the long-term safety assessment of radioactive waste disposal. The proposed method in this study employs techniques of logic tree, by which options of models and/or scenarios are identified, and Evidential Support Logic (ESL), by which possibility of each option is quantified. In this report, the effect of a feedback process of discussion between experts and input of state-of-the-art knowledge in the proposed method is discussed to estimate alteration of the distribution of expert judgements which is one of the factors causing uncertainty. In a preliminary quantification experiment of uncertainty of degradation of the engineering barrier materials in a tentative sub-surface disposal using the proposed methodology, experts themselves modified questions appropriately to facilitate sound judgements and to correlate those with scientific evidences clearly. The result suggests that the method effectively improves confidence of expert judgement. Also, the degree of consensus of expert judgement was sort of improved in some cases, since scientific knowledge and information of expert judgement in other fields became common understanding. It is suggested that the proposed method could facilitate consensus on uncertainty between interested persons. (author)

  18. The use of expert judgement in decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2005-01-01

    Expert judgment (EJ) techniques and protocols have been used in different areas for more than half a century. the Nuclear Energy Division of the Commissariat a l'Energie Atomique (CEA), via the Risk Control Domain of the Nuclear Development and Innovation Division and the Innovative Systems Studies Service, and the Institute for Energy of JRC (Petten), via the Nuclear Safety Unit, organized a 'workshop on the use of expert judgment in decision making'. The objectives of this workshop were to create an exchange forum about this topic and to gather a first state of the art, in order to identify the needs for R and D. This workshop brought together approximately 55 participants, from different industry sectors (energy, both nuclear and non-nuclear, food and communication among others) and from universities, research organizations and technical support organizations. The workshop was divided in one opening session, four thematic sessions plus a round table and a final general discussion session. The first session was dedicated to the elicitation of expertise and the combination of opinions given by different experts. The papers in this session had more theoretical contents than most of the papers in other session. The second session was dedicated to expert knowledge management. It consisted of four papers, two of them in the area of the food industry, one of them in the area of e-business and the last one in the area of human reliability assessment (HRA) and its impact on Probabilistic Safety Analysis (PSA) calculations. The third session was dedicated to industrial applications and consisted of four papers, all of them in the area of energy production. The last session was about the use of EJ in risk analysis and decision making processes. Four papers were included in this session, EJ has been applied for a very long time in very different fields, which has brought as a consequence a broad diversity of methodologies The workshop did also show the variety of techniques

  19. The use of expert judgement in decision making

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2005-07-01

    Expert judgment (EJ) techniques and protocols have been used in different areas for more than half a century. the Nuclear Energy Division of the Commissariat a l'Energie Atomique (CEA), via the Risk Control Domain of the Nuclear Development and Innovation Division and the Innovative Systems Studies Service, and the Institute for Energy of JRC (Petten), via the Nuclear Safety Unit, organized a 'workshop on the use of expert judgment in decision making'. The objectives of this workshop were to create an exchange forum about this topic and to gather a first state of the art, in order to identify the needs for R and D. This workshop brought together approximately 55 participants, from different industry sectors (energy, both nuclear and non-nuclear, food and communication among others) and from universities, research organizations and technical support organizations. The workshop was divided in one opening session, four thematic sessions plus a round table and a final general discussion session. The first session was dedicated to the elicitation of expertise and the combination of opinions given by different experts. The papers in this session had more theoretical contents than most of the papers in other session. The second session was dedicated to expert knowledge management. It consisted of four papers, two of them in the area of the food industry, one of them in the area of e-business and the last one in the area of human reliability assessment (HRA) and its impact on Probabilistic Safety Analysis (PSA) calculations. The third session was dedicated to industrial applications and consisted of four papers, all of them in the area of energy production. The last session was about the use of EJ in risk analysis and decision making processes. Four papers were included in this session, EJ has been applied for a very long time in very different fields, which has brought as a consequence a broad diversity of methodologies The workshop did also show the

  20. Construction of a case for expert judgement of uncertainty in early health effects models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grupa, J.

    1997-11-01

    The contribution of ECN to a joint study of the European Commission (EC) and the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), in which the uncertainty in risks and consequences of severe accidents at nuclear power plants are evaluated, is described. The procedure used to obtain these uncertainties is called expert judgement. In a formal expert judgement procedure a panel of experts has provided quantitative information about the uncertainty in given observables: a quantity that describes an observation concerning the phenomenon of interest, in this paper the relation between dose and health effects, without information or assumptions about any model describing this phenomenon. The observables are defined in a case structure, a questionnaire provided to all experts. ECN has contributed to the selection of the experts for the early health effects panel, and provided assistance for drafting the case structure for this panel. This paper describes the radiological information provided by ECN and the analyses necessary for constructing the case structure. The deliverables of the expert elicitation are uncertainty distributions of the observables requested in the case structure. The results are intended to be unbiased, i.e. it should be applicable to any model describing the relation between dose and health effects. They will be published by the project team in a joint publication of the NRC and the EC. In this way the resulting uncertainty distributions are available for further work in the joint project and available to a more general public. 2 figs., 4 refs

  1. AVISE, ageing anticipation methodology using expert judgement and stimulation. Application to a nuclear power plant component: the pressurizer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bouzaiene-Marle, L.

    2005-04-01

    This thesis deals with components ageing anticipation in the context of life cycle management. The proposed approach, called AVISE, allows the identification of potentials problems related to ageing, to measure the risks in terms of degradation probability and degradation consequences and gives the adequate solutions to stop or to postpone ageing. This research was undertaken in a particular industrial context, the nuclear industry. Equipments used in this context are specific and particularly reliable. These characteristics result in limited feedback (low number of failures). To compensate for this limited information, two solutions are proposed in this approach. The first solution that we can consider as a classical one consists in using expert judgement. The second one, more original, consists in using the operation feedback of 'similar' components. In order to apply these solutions and to obtain the anticipation results, a set of methodological tools was developed and tested in a real industrial application on a nuclear power plant component: the pressurizer. The first tool is a generic process for expert judgement, identified thanks to a comparison between eleven existing methods using expert judgement. Two methods based on expert stimulation and called STIMEX-IMDP and STIMEX-IPP were elaborated. A reference list of degradation mechanisms and a reference list of ageing effects were constructed and used in the method STIMEX-IMDP in order to help expert stimulation. Then, the developed approach proposes the use of belief networks to model and quantify the risks related to the potential degradations. Finally, the construction of a conceptual data model and specifications are given for the creation of an ageing database. The data to capitalize was identified on the basis of the research undertaken in this thesis. (author)

  2. A Judgement-Based Model of Workplace Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Athanasou, James A.

    2004-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to outline a judgement-based model of adult learning. This approach is set out as a Perceptual-Judgemental-Reinforcement approach to social learning under conditions of complexity and where there is no single, clearly identified correct response. The model builds upon the Hager-Halliday thesis of workplace learning and…

  3. Children's judgements and emotions about social exclusion based on weight.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, Christine; Malti, Tina

    2014-09-01

    This study examined children's judgements and emotions associated with weight-based social exclusion using an ethnically diverse sample of one hundred and seventeen 9- and 13-year-old children. Children were interviewed about three scenarios depicting weight-based exclusion in athletic, academic, and social contexts. Children's judgements of exclusion, emotions attributed to the excluder and excluded targets, and justifications for judgements and emotions were examined. Overall, children judged weight-based exclusion to be wrong for moral reasons. However, they viewed weight-based exclusion in athletic contexts as less wrong compared with academic contexts, and they used more social-conventional reasoning to justify judgements and emotions attributed to excluders in athletic contexts compared with academic and social contexts. Children also expected excluded targets to feel negative emotions, whereas a range of positive and negative emotions was attributed to excluders. In addition, older children were more accepting of weight-based exclusion in athletic contexts than in academic and social contexts. We discuss the results in relation to the development of children's understanding of, and emotions associated with, exclusion based on weight. © 2014 The British Psychological Society.

  4. Procedures for the elicitation of expert judgements in the probabilistic risk analysis of radioactive waste repositories: an overview

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Watson, S.R.

    1992-01-01

    In modelling the consequences of a radioactive waste repository using Probabilistic Risk Analysis, it is necessary to use the judgement of experts both in assessing probabilities subjectively, and in choosing suitable analytic frameworks. This report presents the literature on these topics, first discussing the meaning of probability in PRA, and then giving an extensive review of what is known about how to elicit probabilities from experts. The report then provides an overview of the less well developed field of how best to use expertise in the construction of models for PRA. (author)

  5. Procedures for the elicitation of expert judgements in the probabilistic risk analysis of the long-term effects of radioactive waste repositories: an annotated bibliography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Watson, S.R.

    1993-01-01

    This annotated bibliography describes the key literature relevant to the elicitation of expert judgements in radioactive waste management. The bibliography is divided into seven sections; section 2 lists the literature exploring the proper interpretation of probabilities used in Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA). Section 3 lists literature describing other calculi for handling uncertainty in a numerical fashion. In section 4 comments are given on how to elicit probabilities from individuals as a measure of subjective degrees of belief and section 5 lists the literature concerning how expert judgements can be combined. Sections 6 and 7 list literature giving an overview of the issues involved in PRA for radioactive waste repositories. (author)

  6. Development of an Expert Judgement Elicitation and Calibration Methodology for Risk Analysis in Conceptual Vehicle Design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Unal, Resit; Keating, Charles; Conway, Bruce; Chytka, Trina

    2004-01-01

    A comprehensive expert-judgment elicitation methodology to quantify input parameter uncertainty and analysis tool uncertainty in a conceptual launch vehicle design analysis has been developed. The ten-phase methodology seeks to obtain expert judgment opinion for quantifying uncertainties as a probability distribution so that multidisciplinary risk analysis studies can be performed. The calibration and aggregation techniques presented as part of the methodology are aimed at improving individual expert estimates, and provide an approach to aggregate multiple expert judgments into a single probability distribution. The purpose of this report is to document the methodology development and its validation through application to a reference aerospace vehicle. A detailed summary of the application exercise, including calibration and aggregation results is presented. A discussion of possible future steps in this research area is given.

  7. The role of expert judgement in risk assessment of complex plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dumitrescu, Maria; Carcadea, Elena; Preda, Irina Aida; Lazar, Roxana Elena

    2000-01-01

    There is a risk in every action or activity performed by the man. Irrespective of how rigorous the risk assessment method would be, the input data are predominantly subjective, as being estimated, gathered and introduced in the system by humans while the final decision could be purely subjective. The subjectivism prevails, and the looseness as subjective uncertainty gives the fuzzy nature of assessment. In this paper a risk assessment method for technological operations is proposed and, through it, the assessment of quantity of subjectivism and risk perception, based on the fuzzy set theory. For making a working instrument of it, useful in applications, a software system adapted to the method was developed. The risk assessment method includes: - the selection of decision group; - the objective establishing and delimitation; - the establishment of estimation criterion and of typical evaluation factors; - the subjective assessment of degree of achievement for any criterion with fuzzy variables; - the processing of data with a fuzzy mathematical model; - the conclusion regarding the potential danger; - the managerial solution. The expert group, appealing to own experience and information holding of each, analyses for any operation: what can happen and what consequences can appear if the event is happened. (authors)

  8. What static and dynamic properties should slalom skis possess? Judgements by advanced and expert skiers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, Christian; Overney, Leila S; Fauve, Mathieu; Blanke, Olaf; Rhyner, Hansueli; Herzog, Michael H; Bourban, Pierre-Etienne; Månson, Jan-Anders E

    2007-12-01

    Flexural and torsional rigidity are important properties of skis. However, the flexural and torsional rigidity that lead to optimal performance remain to be established. In the present study, four pairs of slalom skis that differed in flexural and torsional rigidity were tested by advanced and expert skiers. Using a 10-item questionnaire, different aspects of the skis' performance were rated on a 9-point scale. For each pair of skis, physical measurements were compared with the ratings of the two groups of skiers. Correlations (Spearman) were then determined between (i) different mechanical properties of the skis (static and dynamic), (ii) subjective assessments of the participants, and (iii) properties of the skis and the participants' assessments. The latter showed that expert skiers rate the aspects of the skis more accurately than advanced skiers. Most importantly, expert skiers are particularly sensitive to torsion of the skis. These results suggest that such highly rated elements should be addressed in future ski designs.

  9. A code of best practice for judgement-based operational research

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wijnmalen, D.J.D.; Curtis, N.J.

    2013-01-01

    Judgement-based (or ‘soft’) Operational Research (OR) is used in Defence, although it may not be well known and understood and it may not be perceived to have the rigour of more quantitative techniques. A NATO task group was set up to address these features and to produce a Code of Best Practice

  10. AVISE, ageing anticipation methodology using expert judgement and stimulation. Application to a nuclear power plant component: the pressurizer; AVISE, Anticipation du Vieillissement par Interrogation et Stimulation d'Experts. Application a un materiel passif d'une centrale nucleaire: le pressuriseur

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bouzaiene-Marle, L

    2005-04-15

    This thesis deals with components ageing anticipation in the context of life cycle management. The proposed approach, called AVISE, allows the identification of potentials problems related to ageing, to measure the risks in terms of degradation probability and degradation consequences and gives the adequate solutions to stop or to postpone ageing. This research was undertaken in a particular industrial context, the nuclear industry. Equipments used in this context are specific and particularly reliable. These characteristics result in limited feedback (low number of failures). To compensate for this limited information, two solutions are proposed in this approach. The first solution that we can consider as a classical one consists in using expert judgement. The second one, more original, consists in using the operation feedback of 'similar' components. In order to apply these solutions and to obtain the anticipation results, a set of methodological tools was developed and tested in a real industrial application on a nuclear power plant component: the pressurizer. The first tool is a generic process for expert judgement, identified thanks to a comparison between eleven existing methods using expert judgement. Two methods based on expert stimulation and called STIMEX-IMDP and STIMEX-IPP were elaborated. A reference list of degradation mechanisms and a reference list of ageing effects were constructed and used in the method STIMEX-IMDP in order to help expert stimulation. Then, the developed approach proposes the use of belief networks to model and quantify the risks related to the potential degradations. Finally, the construction of a conceptual data model and specifications are given for the creation of an ageing database. The data to capitalize was identified on the basis of the research undertaken in this thesis. (author)

  11. Memory-Based Expert Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    1992-12-01

    relevant cases quickly from a large memory -plus the requirement for an explicit theory of index content in the complex social domain where relevance often...Sep 89 - 31 Jan 92 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE 5. FUNDING NUMBERS " MEMORY -BASED EXPERT SYSTEMS" (U) 61102F 2304/A7 6. AUTHOR(S) Dr. Roger C. Schank 7...three problems: (1) The development of a robust memory -based parsing technology (Direct Memory Access Parsing, or DMP), (2) The development of case

  12. Expert system based radionuclide identification

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aarnio, P.A.; Ala-Heikkil, J.J.; Hakulinen, T.T.; Nikkinen, M.T.

    1998-01-01

    An expert system coupled with the gamma spectrum analysis system SAMPO has been developed for automating the qualitative identification of radionuclides as well as for determining the quantitative parameters of the spectrum components. The program is written in C-language and runs in various environments ranging from PCs to UNIX workstations. The expert system utilizes a complete gamma library with over 2600 nuclides and 80,000 lines, and a rule base of about fifty criteria including energies, relative peak intensities, genesis modes, half lives, parent-daughter relationships, etc. The rule base is furthermore extensible by the user. This is not an original contribution but a somewhat updated version of papers and reports previously published elsewhere. (author)

  13. Tacit knowledge as the unifying factor in evidence based medicine and clinical judgement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thornton, Tim

    2006-03-17

    The paper outlines the role that tacit knowledge plays in what might seem to be an area of knowledge that can be made fully explicit or codified and which forms a central element of Evidence Based Medicine. Appeal to the role the role of tacit knowledge in science provides a way to unify the tripartite definition of Evidence Based Medicine given by Sackett et al: the integration of best research evidence with clinical expertise and patient values. Each of these three elements, crucially including research evidence, rests on an ineliminable and irreducible notion of uncodified good judgement. The paper focuses on research evidence, drawing first on the work of Kuhn to suggest that tacit knowledge contributes, as a matter of fact, to puzzle solving within what he calls normal science. A stronger argument that it must play a role in research is first motivated by looking to Collins' first hand account of replication in applied physics and then broader considerations of replication in justifying knowledge claims in scientific research. Finally, consideration of an argument from Wittgenstein shows that whatever explicit guidelines can be drawn up to guide judgement the specification of what counts as correctly following them has to remain implicit.Overall, the paper sets out arguments for the claim that even though explicit guidelines and codifications can play a practical role in informing clinical practice, they rest on a body of tacit or implicit skill that is in principle ineliminable. It forms the bedrock of good judgement and unites the integration of research, expertise and values.

  14. The judgement process in evidence-based medicine and health technology assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelly, Michael P; Moore, Tessa A

    2012-02-01

    This article describes the judgements used to interpret evidence in evidence-based medicine (EBM) and health technology assessment (HTA). It outlines the methods and processes of EBM and HTA. Respectively, EBM and HTA are approaches to medical clinical decision making and efficient allocation of scarce health resources. At the heart of both is a concern to review and synthesise evidence, especially evidence derived from randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of clinical effectiveness. The driver of the approach of both is a desire to eliminate, or at least reduce, bias. The hierarchy of evidence, which is used as an indicator of the likelihood of bias, features heavily in the process and methods of EBM and HTA. The epistemological underpinnings of EBM and HTA are explored with particular reference to the distinction between rationalism and empiricism, developed by the philosopher David Hume and elaborated by Immanuel Kant in the Critique of Pure Reason. The importance of Humian and Kantian principles for understanding the projects of EBM and HTA is considered and the ways in which decisions are made in both, within a judgemental framework originally outlined by Kant, are explored.

  15. Construct validation of judgement-based assessments of medical trainees' competency in the workplace using a "Kanesian" approach to validation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    McGill, D.A.; Vleuten, C.P.M. van der; Clarke, M.J.

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Evaluations of clinical assessments that use judgement-based methods have frequently shown them to have sub-optimal reliability and internal validity evidence for their interpretation and intended use. The aim of this study was to enhance that validity evidence by an evaluation of the

  16. TU Delft expert judgment data base

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cooke, Roger M.; Goossens, Louis L.H.J.

    2008-01-01

    We review the applications of structured expert judgment uncertainty quantification using the 'classical model' developed at the Delft University of Technology over the last 17 years [Cooke RM. Experts in uncertainty. Oxford: Oxford University Press; 1991; Expert judgment study on atmospheric dispersion and deposition. Report Faculty of Technical Mathematics and Informatics No.01-81, Delft University of Technology; 1991]. These involve 45 expert panels, performed under contract with problem owners who reviewed and approved the results. With a few exceptions, all these applications involved the use of seed variables; that is, variables from the experts' area of expertise for which the true values are available post hoc. Seed variables are used to (1) measure expert performance, (2) enable performance-based weighted combination of experts' distributions, and (3) evaluate and hopefully validate the resulting combination or 'decision maker'. This article reviews the classical model for structured expert judgment and the performance measures, reviews applications, comparing performance-based decision makers with 'equal weight' decision makers, and collects some lessons learned

  17. ExpertSeer: a Keyphrase Based Expert Recommender for Digital Libraries

    OpenAIRE

    Chen, Hung-Hsuan; Ororbia II, Alexander G.; Giles, C. Lee

    2015-01-01

    We describe ExpertSeer, a generic framework for expert recommendation based on the contents of a digital library. Given a query term q, ExpertSeer recommends experts of q by retrieving authors who published relevant papers determined by related keyphrases and the quality of papers. The system is based on a simple yet effective keyphrase extractor and the Bayes' rule for expert recommendation. ExpertSeer is domain independent and can be applied to different disciplines and applications since t...

  18. Evaluating Expert Estimators Based on Elicited Competences

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hrvoje Karna

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Utilization of expert effort estimation approach shows promising results when it is applied to software development process. It is based on judgment and decision making process and due to comparative advantages extensively used especially in situations when classic models cannot be accounted for. This becomes even more accentuated in today’s highly dynamical project environment. Confronted with these facts companies are placing ever greater focus on their employees, specifically on their competences. Competences are defined as knowledge, skills and abilities required to perform job assignments. During effort estimation process different underlying expert competences influence the outcome i.e. judgments they express. Special problem here is the elicitation, from an input collection, of those competences that are responsible for accurate estimates. Based on these findings different measures can be taken to enhance estimation process. The approach used in study presented in this paper was targeted at elicitation of expert estimator competences responsible for production of accurate estimates. Based on individual competences scores resulting from performed modeling experts were ranked using weighted scoring method and their performance evaluated. Results confirm that experts with higher scores in competences identified by applied models in general exhibit higher accuracy during estimation process. For the purpose of modeling data mining methods were used, specifically the multilayer perceptron neural network and the classification and regression decision tree algorithms. Among other, applied methods are suitable for the purpose of elicitation as in a sense they mimic the ways human brains operate. Data used in the study was collected from real projects in the company specialized for development of IT solutions in telecom domain. The proposed model, applied methodology for elicitation of expert competences and obtained results give evidence that in

  19. Scientific evidence and the toxic tort. A socio-legal study of the issues, expert evidence and judgement in Reay and Hope v. British Nuclear Fuels plc

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harrison, R.J.

    1999-01-01

    Providing a socio-legal analysis of the issues, expert evidence and judgment in Reay and Hope v BNFL plc., the thesis offers an insight into the complexity of the toxic tort. Starting with an overview of the history of Sellafield, the thesis reflects on the scientific and epidemiological concerns surrounding the link between childhood cancer and nuclear installations. Drawing on scientific knowledge and epistemological considerations, the thesis moves on to the difficulties of verifying causation in science and the problems of establishing causation in law. Outlining the role of the expert witness and scientific expert evidence, the thesis proceeds with a case analysis, before broaching the thorny issue of judicial decision making and in particular, the difference between the 'discovery' and 'justification' process. Moving on to the Judgment in Reay and Hope, attention is given to the potential application of probability theory to the judicial decision making process. Lasting just short of one hundred days and including the testimony of numerous scientific experts, Reay and Hope marked new ground in a number of ways; it was the first personal injury claim to test the concept of genetic damage from radiation; the only time that a Queen's Bench Division Judge had been allocated a full-time judicial assistant, and one of the first trials to endorse a satellite video link for examination of international expert witnesses. As far as judicial management is concerned, the case was a forerunner in having Counsels' Opening Statements in writing in advance of the trial, as well as having written daily submissions of key issues from plaintiffs and defendants upon conclusion of oral evidence. The circumstances that led to the trial relate to events in excess of thirty to forty years ago when the fathers of Dorothy Reay and Vivien Hope were employed by the Defendants and their predecessors (the United Kingdom Atomic Energy Authority) as fitters for the Sellafield Plant

  20. Aesthetic Judgements and Motivation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Archer, Alfred

    Are aesthetic judgements cognitive, belief-like states or non-cognitive, desire-like states? There have been a number of attempts in recent years to evaluate the plausibility of a non-cognitivist theory of aesthetic judgements. These attempts borrow heavily from Non-cognitivism in metaethics. One

  1. Judgement on Windscale

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roberts, G.C.; White, I.F.

    1978-01-01

    A summary is given of the findings of the report on the Windscale Inquiry into the application by British Nuclear Fuels Limited for planning permission to establish a plant for reprocessing irradiated oxide nuclear fuels (The Windscale Inquiry. Report by the Hon. Mr. Justice Parker, 26 January 1978, Vol.1, Report and Annexes 3 to 5, HMSO). Particular attention is given to comments in the report on the ICRP and NRPB, radiation protection standards, and the risks associated with fuel reprocessing. The bases of the judgements made are given, together with Mr. Justice Parker's recommenda-tions for the setting of discharge limits, monitoring discharges and levels of environmental radioactivity, and the assessment of what constitutes a tolerable risk to the public. (U.K)

  2. Construct validation of judgement-based assessments of medical trainees' competency in the workplace using a "Kanesian" approach to validation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGill, D A; van der Vleuten, C P M; Clarke, M J

    2015-12-30

    Evaluations of clinical assessments that use judgement-based methods have frequently shown them to have sub-optimal reliability and internal validity evidence for their interpretation and intended use. The aim of this study was to enhance that validity evidence by an evaluation of the internal validity and reliability of competency constructs from supervisors' end-of-term summative assessments for prevocational medical trainees. The populations were medical trainees preparing for full registration as a medical practitioner (74) and supervisors who undertook ≥2 end-of-term summative assessments (n = 349) from a single institution. Confirmatory Factor Analysis was used to evaluate assessment internal construct validity. The hypothesised competency construct model to be tested, identified by exploratory factor analysis, had a theoretical basis established in workplace-psychology literature. Comparisons were made with competing models of potential competency constructs including the competency construct model of the original assessment. The optimal model for the competency constructs was identified using model fit and measurement invariance analysis. Construct homogeneity was assessed by Cronbach's α. Reliability measures were variance components of individual competency items and the identified competency constructs, and the number of assessments needed to achieve adequate reliability of R > 0.80. The hypothesised competency constructs of "general professional job performance", "clinical skills" and "professional abilities" provides a good model-fit to the data, and a better fit than all alternative models. Model fit indices were χ2/df = 2.8; RMSEA = 0.073 (CI 0.057-0.088); CFI = 0.93; TLI = 0.95; SRMR = 0.039; WRMR = 0.93; AIC = 3879; and BIC = 4018). The optimal model had adequate measurement invariance with nested analysis of important population subgroups supporting the presence of full metric invariance. Reliability

  3. The CBT Advisor: An Expert System Program for Making Decisions about CBT.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kearsley, Greg

    1985-01-01

    Discusses structure, credibility, and use of the Computer Based Training (CBT) Advisor, an expert system designed to help managers make judgements about course selection, system selection, cost/benefits, development effort, and probable success of CBT projects. (MBR)

  4. Designing Judgement Styles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Liu, Albert Fei

    2017-01-01

    The role played by Online Customer Reviews (OCRs) in consumers’ decision making decisions is increasingly prominent. Compelled by the paucity of understanding regarding how OCRs assist consumers’ decision making process, this study investigates how OCRs and the emerging OCR curation features...... facilitate consumers’ judgement styles in the light of the model of dual-system cognition function. This study postulates that the information cues available in numerical rating and opinionated review are conducive to intuitive and deliberate judgements respectively. Furthermore, OCR curation features can...... help to enhance judgements in response to OCRs through manipulating cue accessibility. Lastly, different judgement modes are expected to entail distinct decisional outcomes in terms of performance and justifiability. To empirically validate the proposed hypotheses, this study proposes a plan...

  5. Expertness based cooperative Q-learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmadabadi, M N; Asadpour, M

    2002-01-01

    By using other agents' experiences and knowledge, a learning agent may learn faster, make fewer mistakes, and create some rules for unseen situations. These benefits would be gained if the learning agent can extract proper rules from the other agents' knowledge for its own requirements. One possible way to do this is to have the learner assign some expertness values (intelligence level values) to the other agents and use their knowledge accordingly. Some criteria to measure the expertness of the reinforcement learning agents are introduced. Also, a new cooperative learning method, called weighted strategy sharing (WSS) is presented. In this method, each agent measures the expertness of its teammates and assigns a weight to their knowledge and learns from them accordingly. The presented methods are tested on two Hunter-Prey systems. We consider that the agents are all learning from each other and compare them with those who cooperate only with the more expert ones. Also, the effect of communication noise, as a source of uncertainty, on the cooperative learning method is studied. Moreover, the Q-table of one of the cooperative agents is changed randomly and its effects on the presented methods are examined.

  6. Web-based tool for expert elicitation of the variogram

    Science.gov (United States)

    Truong, Phuong N.; Heuvelink, Gerard B. M.; Gosling, John Paul

    2013-02-01

    The variogram is the keystone of geostatistics. Estimation of the variogram is deficient and difficult when there are no or too few observations available due to budget constraints or physical and temporal obstacles. In such cases, expert knowledge can be an important source of information. Expert knowledge can also fulfil the increasing demand for an a priori variogram in Bayesian geostatistics and spatial sampling optimization. Formal expert elicitation provides a sound scientific basis to reliably and consistently extract knowledge from experts. In this study, we aimed at applying existing statistical expert elicitation techniques to extract the variogram of a regionalized variable that is assumed to have either a multivariate normal or lognormal spatial probability distribution from expert knowledge. To achieve this, we developed an elicitation protocol and implemented it as a web-based tool to facilitate the elicitation of beliefs from multiple experts. Our protocol has two main rounds: elicitation of the marginal probability distribution and elicitation of the variogram. The web-based tool has three main components: a web interface for expert elicitation and feedback; a component for statistical computation and mathematical pooling of multiple experts' knowledge; and a database management component. Results from a test case study show that the protocol is adequate and that the online elicitation tool functions satisfactorily. The web-based tool is free to use and supports scientists to conveniently elicit the variogram of spatial random variables from experts. The source code is available from the journal FTP site under the GNU General Public License.

  7. Intelligent judgements over health risks in a spatial agent-based model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdulkareem, Shaheen A; Augustijn, Ellen-Wien; Mustafa, Yaseen T; Filatova, Tatiana

    2018-03-20

    Millions of people worldwide are exposed to deadly infectious diseases on a regular basis. Breaking news of the Zika outbreak for instance, made it to the main media titles internationally. Perceiving disease risks motivate people to adapt their behavior toward a safer and more protective lifestyle. Computational science is instrumental in exploring patterns of disease spread emerging from many individual decisions and interactions among agents and their environment by means of agent-based models. Yet, current disease models rarely consider simulating dynamics in risk perception and its impact on the adaptive protective behavior. Social sciences offer insights into individual risk perception and corresponding protective actions, while machine learning provides algorithms and methods to capture these learning processes. This article presents an innovative approach to extend agent-based disease models by capturing behavioral aspects of decision-making in a risky context using machine learning techniques. We illustrate it with a case of cholera in Kumasi, Ghana, accounting for spatial and social risk factors that affect intelligent behavior and corresponding disease incidents. The results of computational experiments comparing intelligent with zero-intelligent representations of agents in a spatial disease agent-based model are discussed. We present a spatial disease agent-based model (ABM) with agents' behavior grounded in Protection Motivation Theory. Spatial and temporal patterns of disease diffusion among zero-intelligent agents are compared to those produced by a population of intelligent agents. Two Bayesian Networks (BNs) designed and coded using R and are further integrated with the NetLogo-based Cholera ABM. The first is a one-tier BN1 (only risk perception), the second is a two-tier BN2 (risk and coping behavior). We run three experiments (zero-intelligent agents, BN1 intelligence and BN2 intelligence) and report the results per experiment in terms of

  8. Whodunnit? Electrophysiological correlates of agency judgements.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simone Kühn

    Full Text Available Sense of agency refers to the feeling that "I" am responsible for those external events that are directly produced by one's own voluntary actions. Recent theories distinguish between a non-conceptual "feeling" of agency linked to changes in the processing of self-generated sensory events, and a higher-order judgement of agency, which attributes sensory events to the self. In the current study we explore the neural correlates of the judgement of agency by means of electrophysiology. We measured event-related potentials to tones that were either perceived or not perceived as triggered by participants' voluntary actions and related these potentials to later judgements of agency over the tones. Replicating earlier findings on predictive sensory attenuation, we found that the N1 component was attenuated for congruent tones that corresponded to the learned action-effect mapping as opposed to incongruent tones that did not correspond to the previously acquired associations between actions and tones. The P3a component, but not the N1, directly reflected the judgement of agency: deflections in this component were greater for tones judged as self-generated than for tones judged as externally produced. The fact that the outcome of the later agency judgement was predictable based on the P3a component demonstrates that agency judgements incorporate early information processing components and are not purely reconstructive, post-hoc evaluations generated at time of judgement.

  9. From Being Non-Judgemental to Deconstructing Normalising Judgement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winslade, John M.

    2013-01-01

    Beginning with Carl Rogers' exhortation for counsellors to be non-judgemental of their clients, this article explores the rationale for withholding judgement in therapy, including diagnostic judgement. It traces Rogers' incipient sociopolitical analysis as a foundation for this ethic and argues that Michel Foucault provides a stronger…

  10. Aesthetic Judgement of Orientation in Modern Art

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    George Mather

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available When creating an artwork, the artist makes a decision regarding the orientation at which the work is to be hung based on their aesthetic judgement and the message conveyed by the piece. Is the impact or aesthetic appeal of a work diminished when it is hung at an incorrect orientation? To investigate this question, Experiment 1 asked whether naïve observers can appreciate the correct orientation (as defined by the artist of 40 modern artworks, some of which are entirely abstract. Eighteen participants were shown 40 paintings in a series of trials. Each trial presented all four cardinal orientations on a computer screen, and the participant was asked to select the orientation that was most attractive or meaningful. Results showed that the correct orientation was selected in 48% of trials on average, significantly above the 25% chance level, but well below perfect performance. A second experiment investigated the extent to which the 40 paintings contained recognisable content, which may have mediated orientation judgements. Recognition rates varied from 0% for seven of the paintings to 100% for five paintings. Orientation judgements in Experiment 1 correlated significantly with “meaningful” content judgements in Experiment 2: 42% of the variance in orientation judgements in Experiment 1 was shared with recognition of meaningful content in Experiment 2. For the seven paintings in which no meaningful content at all was detected, 41% of the variance in orientation judgements was shared with variance in a physical measure of image content, Fourier amplitude spectrum slope. For some paintings, orientation judgements were quite consistent, despite a lack of meaningful content. The origin of these orientation judgements remains to be identified.

  11. Aesthetic judgement of orientation in modern art.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mather, George

    2012-01-01

    When creating an artwork, the artist makes a decision regarding the orientation at which the work is to be hung based on their aesthetic judgement and the message conveyed by the piece. Is the impact or aesthetic appeal of a work diminished when it is hung at an incorrect orientation? To investigate this question, Experiment 1 asked whether naïve observers can appreciate the correct orientation (as defined by the artist) of 40 modern artworks, some of which are entirely abstract. Eighteen participants were shown 40 paintings in a series of trials. Each trial presented all four cardinal orientations on a computer screen, and the participant was asked to select the orientation that was most attractive or meaningful. Results showed that the correct orientation was selected in 48% of trials on average, significantly above the 25% chance level, but well below perfect performance. A second experiment investigated the extent to which the 40 paintings contained recognisable content, which may have mediated orientation judgements. Recognition rates varied from 0% for seven of the paintings to 100% for five paintings. Orientation judgements in Experiment 1 correlated significantly with "meaningful" content judgements in Experiment 2: 42% of the variance in orientation judgements in Experiment 1 was shared with recognition of meaningful content in Experiment 2. For the seven paintings in which no meaningful content at all was detected, 41% of the variance in orientation judgements was shared with variance in a physical measure of image content, Fourier amplitude spectrum slope. For some paintings, orientation judgements were quite consistent, despite a lack of meaningful content. The origin of these orientation judgements remains to be identified.

  12. An Embedded Rule-Based Diagnostic Expert System in Ada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Robert E.; Liberman, Eugene M.

    1992-01-01

    Ada is becoming an increasingly popular programming language for large Government-funded software projects. Ada with it portability, transportability, and maintainability lends itself well to today's complex programming environment. In addition, expert systems have also assumed a growing role in providing human-like reasoning capability expertise for computer systems. The integration is discussed of expert system technology with Ada programming language, especially a rule-based expert system using an ART-Ada (Automated Reasoning Tool for Ada) system shell. NASA Lewis was chosen as a beta test site for ART-Ada. The test was conducted by implementing the existing Autonomous Power EXpert System (APEX), a Lisp-based power expert system, in ART-Ada. Three components, the rule-based expert systems, a graphics user interface, and communications software make up SMART-Ada (Systems fault Management with ART-Ada). The rules were written in the ART-Ada development environment and converted to Ada source code. The graphics interface was developed with the Transportable Application Environment (TAE) Plus, which generates Ada source code to control graphics images. SMART-Ada communicates with a remote host to obtain either simulated or real data. The Ada source code generated with ART-Ada, TAE Plus, and communications code was incorporated into an Ada expert system that reads the data from a power distribution test bed, applies the rule to determine a fault, if one exists, and graphically displays it on the screen. The main objective, to conduct a beta test on the ART-Ada rule-based expert system shell, was achieved. The system is operational. New Ada tools will assist in future successful projects. ART-Ada is one such tool and is a viable alternative to the straight Ada code when an application requires a rule-based or knowledge-based approach.

  13. PROTOTYPE WEB-BASED EXPERT SYSTEM FOR FLEXIBLE PAVEMENT MAINTENANCE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ABDALRHMAN MILAD

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The paper describes the development of a prototype web-based expert knowledge system that can be used to maintain flexible pavement within a tropical region. This prototype system provides the advantages of using existing web-based expert system technology. Currently, deterioration of asphalt pavement layers is one of the biggest problems in Malaysia and requires maintenance to ensure that the roads remain open and able to guarantee the regularity, punctuality, and safety of all transport services. According to this process, the knowledge collection that has acquired and the date concerning to domain expert system of the development web-based system was launched with knowledge representation IF and THEN rules and coded by PHP programming. The web pages that support the user interface are created using a framework consisting of HTML, CSS, and J-Query. The prototype web-based expert system uses the knowledge of a pavement maintenance expert, or a specialist in pavement problem remediation, to emulate a portion of their professional reasoning abilities, which it can then use to assist with the maintenance of existing roads and enhance the efficiency and accuracy of the professional engineers tasked with the assessment of all available remedies. Thus, the system increases the performance level of the engineers in analysing, discerning and customising the information that will assist decision makers throughout the project, so the probability that the right decision and treatment are implemented at the right time is increased.

  14. Ask-the-expert: Active Learning Based Knowledge Discovery Using the Expert

    Science.gov (United States)

    Das, Kamalika; Avrekh, Ilya; Matthews, Bryan; Sharma, Manali; Oza, Nikunj

    2017-01-01

    Often the manual review of large data sets, either for purposes of labeling unlabeled instances or for classifying meaningful results from uninteresting (but statistically significant) ones is extremely resource intensive, especially in terms of subject matter expert (SME) time. Use of active learning has been shown to diminish this review time significantly. However, since active learning is an iterative process of learning a classifier based on a small number of SME-provided labels at each iteration, the lack of an enabling tool can hinder the process of adoption of these technologies in real-life, in spite of their labor-saving potential. In this demo we present ASK-the-Expert, an interactive tool that allows SMEs to review instances from a data set and provide labels within a single framework. ASK-the-Expert is powered by an active learning algorithm for training a classifier in the backend. We demonstrate this system in the context of an aviation safety application, but the tool can be adopted to work as a simple review and labeling tool as well, without the use of active learning.

  15. Rule - based Fault Diagnosis Expert System for Wind Turbine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Deng Xiao-Wen

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Under the trend of increasing installed capacity of wind power, the intelligent fault diagnosis of wind turbine is of great significance to the safe and efficient operation of wind farms. Based on the knowledge of fault diagnosis of wind turbines, this paper builds expert system diagnostic knowledge base by using confidence production rules and expert system self-learning method. In Visual Studio 2013 platform, C # language is selected and ADO.NET technology is used to access the database. Development of Fault Diagnosis Expert System for Wind Turbine. The purpose of this paper is to realize on-line diagnosis of wind turbine fault through human-computer interaction, and to improve the diagnostic capability of the system through the continuous improvement of the knowledge base.

  16. The microcomputer-based expert system in CAD-PV

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Y.; Qin, S.

    1987-01-01

    As a branch of artificial intelligence, expert system has been revealed day after day in more and more engineering scopes since the successful applications of MYCIN in diagnosis and DENDRAL in the molecular structure of organic compounds etc.. But in the design scope of pressure vessel, as we know, only a few papers have so far been published with respect to the expert system. The necessity and feasibility of accompanying CAD-PV with expert system attracted more scholars to engage in. Although many countries, including China, have regularized the design standards or codes for pressure vessel, but of which no one can solve all of the problems concerning the various practical occasions and experiences. In general, the more domain knowledges a design engineer possesses of, the better decision will be made by him. By virtue of the expert system any less experienced engineer could make the optimum decision in design as well as a skilled senior engineer in addition to the application of design code. It is the due significance for developing high level expert system as an intelligence assistant in the plan option of CAD-PV. In this paper we attempt to introduce a specified software JACKPV used in the design procedure of jacketed pressure vessel as an intelligence front in CAD-PV. JACKPV consists of the function of expert system based on the personal computer IBM-PC/XT with the language PASCAL in its program. It was proved that an ordinary CAD software could be effectively improved while equipped with expert system. (orig.)

  17. Feed type based expert systems in mineral processing plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jamsa-Jounela, S.-L.; Laine, S.; Laurila, H.

    1999-01-01

    Artificial Intelligence includes excellent tools for the control and supervision of industrial processes. Several thousand industrial applications have been reported worldwide. Recently, the designers of the AI systems have begun to hybridize the intelligent techniques, expert systems, fuzzy logic and neural networks, to enhance the capability of the AI systems. Expert systems have proved to be ideal candidates especially for the control of mineral processes. As successful case projects, expert system based on on-line classification of the feed type is described in this paper. The essential feature of this expert system is the classification of different feed types and their distinct control strategies at the plant. In addition to the classification, the expert system has a database containing information about how to handle the determined feed type. This self-learning database scans historical process data to suggest the best treatment for the ore type under processing. The system has been tested in two concentrators, the Outokumpu Finnmines Oy, Hitura mine and Outokumpu Chrome Oy, Kemi mine. (author)

  18. Model-based expert systems for linac computer controls

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, M.J.

    1988-09-01

    The use of machine modeling and beam simulation programs for the control of accelerator operation has become standard practice. The success of a model-based control operation depends on how the parameter to be controlled is measured, how the measured data is analyzed, how the result of the analysis is interpreted, and how a solution is implemented. There is considerable interest in applying expert systems technology that can automate all of these processes. The design of an expert system to control the beam trajectory in linear accelerators will be discussed as an illustration of this approach. 4 figs., 1 tab

  19. Counter-intuitive moral judgement following traumatic brain injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rowley, Dane A; Rogish, Miles; Alexander, Timothy; Riggs, Kevin J

    2017-02-07

    Several neurological patient populations, including traumatic brain injury (TBI), appear to produce an abnormally 'utilitarian' pattern of judgements to moral dilemmas; they tend to make judgements that maximize the welfare of the majority, rather than deontological judgements based on the following of moral rules (e.g., do not harm others). However, this patient research has always used extreme dilemmas with highly valued moral rules (e.g., do not kill). Data from healthy participants, however, suggest that when a wider range of dilemmas are employed, involving less valued moral rules (e.g., do not lie), moral judgements demonstrate sensitivity to the psychological intuitiveness of the judgements, rather than their deontological or utilitarian content (Kahane et al., Social Cognitive and Affective Neuroscience, 7, 2011, 393). We sought the moral judgements of 30 TBI participants and 30 controls on moral dilemmas where content (utilitarian/deontological) and intuition (intuitive/counter-intuitive) were measured concurrently. Overall TBI participants made utilitarian judgements in equal proportions to controls; disproportionately favouring utilitarian judgements only when they were counter-intuitive, and deontological judgements only when they were counter-intuitive. These results speak against the view that TBI causes a specific utilitarian bias, suggesting instead that moral intuition is broadly disrupted following TBI. © 2017 The British Psychological Society.

  20. Teachers' professional judgement in real teaching situations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mikkelsen, Sidse Hølvig; Daugbjerg, Peer; Sommer, Lise

    2017-01-01

    Teachers' daily work is complex consisting of teaching, dialogue with pupils, principals, colleagues, parents besides a variety of daily supervision tasks. This entails that the teachers' workdays are loaded with judgements, evaluations, reflections and actions founded on reasonable considerations....... Teachers' capability to make sensible judgements in pedagogical situations and moments are based on their personal norms and knowledge. Norms and knowledge that makes it possible for them to make well-considered decisions regarding good teaching. Teachers' planned changes in teaching are typically well...

  1. Subjective judgements in scientific practice and art.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Regidor, Enrique

    2011-12-01

    Since art and science went their separate ways in the 18th century, the purpose of science has been to generate true knowledge based on reason and objectivity. However, during the second half of the 20th century, opinions emerged within science that showed the impossibility of eliminating subjectivity in scientific practice. This paper describes the similarity of the subjective judgements that form part of the peer-review system-the method devised by the scientific community to guarantee truth and objectivity-and the subjective judgements involved in artistic evaluation.

  2. Integrated Knowledge Based Expert System for Disease Diagnosis System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arbaiy, Nureize; Sulaiman, Shafiza Eliza; Hassan, Norlida; Afizah Afip, Zehan

    2017-08-01

    The role and importance of healthcare systems to improve quality of life and social welfare in a society have been well recognized. Attention should be given to raise awareness and implementing appropriate measures to improve health care. Therefore, a computer based system is developed to serve as an alternative for people to self-diagnose their health status based on given symptoms. This strategy should be emphasized so that people can utilize the information correctly as a reference to enjoy healthier life. Hence, a Web-based Community Center for Healthcare Diagnosis system is developed based on expert system technique. Expert system reasoning technique is employed in the system to enable information about treatment and prevention of the diseases based on given symptoms. At present, three diseases are included which are arthritis, thalassemia and pneumococcal. Sets of rule and fact are managed in the knowledge based system. Web based technology is used as a platform to disseminate the information to users in order for them to optimize the information appropriately. This system will benefit people who wish to increase health awareness and seek expert knowledge on the diseases by performing self-diagnosis for early disease detection.

  3. Bases for conceptualisation of the notion of expert thinking

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krnjaić Zora

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Institute of Psychology, Faculty of Philosophy, University of Belgrade This paper presents the bases for conceptualisation of the notion of expert thinking: the key concepts from the L.S. Vygotsky's theory and modern theories of giftedness, as well as empirical findings about the differences in achievement of gifted students from different academic study groups. We first present the conceptual core of the notion of expert thinking, i.e. the concept of artificial development from the sociocultural-historical theory of Vygotsky. Then we proceed to the bases which refer to relevant theoretical discussions and empirical findings about the development of giftedness and expertise, indicating that the phenomena of giftedness and expert thinking can be considered as general developmental psychological problems and in the context of general cognitive development and thinking. Special part refers to empirical data about differences in achievement in psychological tests by the most successful intellectually gifted students from various academic study groups. The paper also includes the working definition of expert thinking, which is defined as thinking of higher order, developed under the influence of culture and systematic education, in the course of which deep knowledge structures are acquired, enabling performance of specific patterns of intellectual operations which depend on particular epistemological nature of individual knowledge domains.

  4. An Expert System-Based Approach to Hospitality Company Diagnosis

    OpenAIRE

    Balfe, Andrew; O'Connor, Peter; McDonnell, Ciaran

    1994-01-01

    This paper describes the development of a prototype Expert System-based Analysis and Diagnostic (ESAD) package for the Hotel and Catering Industry. This computerised tool aids the hospitality manager in methodically scrutinising the hotel unit and environment, combining key information with systematic reasoning. The system searches through its extensive knowledge base, investigating complicated relationships. The number of possibilities considered is increased which will broaden the depth and...

  5. An expert systems application to space base data processing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Babb, Stephen M.

    1988-01-01

    The advent of space vehicles with their increased data requirements are reflected in the complexity of future telemetry systems. Space based operations with its immense operating costs will shift the burden of data processing and routine analysis from the space station to the Orbital Transfer Vehicle (OTV). A research and development project is described which addresses the real time onboard data processing tasks associated with a space based vehicle, specifically focusing on an implementation of an expert system.

  6. Index : A Rule Based Expert System For Computer Network Maintenance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaganty, Srinivas; Pitchai, Anandhi; Morgan, Thomas W.

    1988-03-01

    Communications is an expert intensive discipline. The application of expert systems for maintenance of large and complex networks, mainly as an aid in trouble shooting, can simplify the task of network management. The important steps involved in troubleshooting are fault detection, fault reporting, fault interpretation and fault isolation. At present, Network Maintenance Facilities are capable of detecting and reporting the faults to network personnel. Fault interpretation refers to the next step in the process, which involves coming up with reasons for the failure. Fault interpretation can be characterized in two ways. First, it involves such a diversity of facts that it is difficult to predict. Secondly, it embodies a wealth of knowledge in the form of network management personnel. The application of expert systems in these interpretive tasks is an important step towards automation of network maintenance. In this paper, INDEX (Intelligent Network Diagnosis Expediter), a rule based production system for computer network alarm interpretation is described. It acts as an intelligent filter for people analyzing network alarms. INDEX analyzes the alarms in the network and identifies proper maintenance action to be taken.The important feature of this production system is that it is data driven. Working memory is the principal data repository of production systems and its contents represent the current state of the problem. Control is based upon which productions match the constantly changing working memory elements. Implementation of the prototype is in OPS83. Major issues in rule based system development such as rule base organization, implementation and efficiency are discussed.

  7. An expert system for vibration based diagnostics of rotating machines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Korteniemi, A.

    1990-01-01

    Very often changes in the mechanical condition of the rotating machinery can be observed as changes in its vibration. This paper presents an expert system for vibration-based diagnosis of rotating machines by describing the architecture of the developed prototype system. The importance of modelling the problem solving knowledge as well as the domain knowledge is emphasized by presenting the knowledge in several levels

  8. Designing Fuzzy Rule Based Expert System for Cyber Security

    OpenAIRE

    Goztepe, Kerim

    2016-01-01

    The state of cyber security has begun to attract more attention and interest outside the community of computer security experts. Cyber security is not a single problem, but rather a group of highly different problems involving different sets of threats. Fuzzy Rule based system for cyber security is a system consists of a rule depository and a mechanism for accessing and running the rules. The depository is usually constructed with a collection of related rule sets. The aim of this study is to...

  9. WELDSMART: A vision-based expert system for quality control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andersen, Kristinn; Barnett, Robert Joel; Springfield, James F.; Cook, George E.

    1992-01-01

    This work was aimed at exploring means for utilizing computer technology in quality inspection and evaluation. Inspection of metallic welds was selected as the main application for this development and primary emphasis was placed on visual inspection, as opposed to other inspection methods, such as radiographic techniques. Emphasis was placed on methodologies with the potential for use in real-time quality control systems. Because quality evaluation is somewhat subjective, despite various efforts to classify discontinuities and standardize inspection methods, the task of using a computer for both inspection and evaluation was not trivial. The work started out with a review of the various inspection techniques that are used for quality control in welding. Among other observations from this review was the finding that most weld defects result in abnormalities that may be seen by visual inspection. This supports the approach of emphasizing visual inspection for this work. Quality control consists of two phases: (1) identification of weld discontinuities (some of which may be severe enough to be classified as defects), and (2) assessment or evaluation of the weld based on the observed discontinuities. Usually the latter phase results in a pass/fail judgement for the inspected piece. It is the conclusion of this work that the first of the above tasks, identification of discontinuities, is the most challenging one. It calls for sophisticated image processing and image analysis techniques, and frequently ad hoc methods have to be developed to identify specific features in the weld image. The difficulty of this task is generally not due to limited computing power. In most cases it was found that a modest personal computer or workstation could carry out most computations in a reasonably short time period. Rather, the algorithms and methods necessary for identifying weld discontinuities were in some cases limited. The fact that specific techniques were finally developed and

  10. An Expert Fitness Diagnosis System Based on Elastic Cloud Computing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kevin C. Tseng

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an expert diagnosis system based on cloud computing. It classifies a user’s fitness level based on supervised machine learning techniques. This system is able to learn and make customized diagnoses according to the user’s physiological data, such as age, gender, and body mass index (BMI. In addition, an elastic algorithm based on Poisson distribution is presented to allocate computation resources dynamically. It predicts the required resources in the future according to the exponential moving average of past observations. The experimental results show that Naïve Bayes is the best classifier with the highest accuracy (90.8% and that the elastic algorithm is able to capture tightly the trend of requests generated from the Internet and thus assign corresponding computation resources to ensure the quality of service.

  11. Confident to seek help: the development of skill and judgement in nurse practitioners. A mixed methods study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fotheringham, Diane

    2013-07-01

    Healthcare is undergoing a transformation in terms of traditional role and skill assignations of staff, with an attendant blurring of boundaries. Expert judgement is used in order to develop and assess learners as they prepare for these new roles. To determine factors related to the perceived usefulness of feedback, to find out how participants use expert judgement, to develop skill and to examine how the context of learning affects the development of judgement. Four NHS Health Board areas within Scotland. 95 nurse practitioners who had successfully completed a specified course of skills based education between September 2008 and August 2010. 10 participants agreed to follow up interview. Survey and follow-up semi-structured interviews. Mixed methods. 20 item, internet based questionnaire (n = 85) and semi-structured interviews (n = 10), collected between September 2010 and February 2011. Response rate was 55%-confidence level of 99%, this sample yields a confidence interval of 12.9%. The results demonstrate that the demonstration of skill and the perception of expertise of the supervisor are related to the perceived usefulness of feedback (p < 0.004). The participants use feedback as one strategy to develop skill and judgement, although the mining of the tacit knowledge of medical colleagues, reference to associated theory and peer support and learning strategies are also seen to be important. The development of judgement is restricted by the tightly controlled learning environment. Identification of participants with the expertise of the supervisory group reveals a group who are highly aspirational and for whom the governance of learning leads the participants to be confident to seek help and not the confidence to identify learning needs. Learning is seen to be dominated by the context in which it is set and as the participants learn motor skills, they learn to fit in and manage a brittle working environment. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Distributed Web-Based Expert System for Launch Operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bardina, Jorge E.; Thirumalainambi, Rajkumar

    2005-01-01

    The simulation and modeling of launch operations is based on a representation of the organization of the operations suitable to experiment of the physical, procedural, software, hardware and psychological aspects of space flight operations. The virtual test bed consists of a weather expert system to advice on the effect of weather to the launch operations. It also simulates toxic gas dispersion model, and the risk impact on human health. Since all modeling and simulation is based on the internet, it could reduce the cost of operations of launch and range safety by conducting extensive research before a particular launch. Each model has an independent decision making module to derive the best decision for launch.

  13. Medical expert systems developed in j.MD, a Java based expert system shell: application in clinical laboratories.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Hoof, Viviane; Wormek, Arno; Schleutermann, Sylvia; Schumacher, Theo; Lothaire, Olivier; Trendelenburg, Christian

    2004-01-01

    Growing complexity of diagnostic tests, combined with increased workload, stringent laboratory accreditation demands, continuous shortening of turn-around-time and budget restrictions have forced laboratories to automate most of their iterative tasks. Introduction of artificial intelligence by means of expert systems has gained an important place in this automation process. Different parts of clinical laboratory activity can benefit from their implementation and the present project deals with one aspect, namely the clinical interpretation of diagnostic tests. This paper describes how j.MD, a new Java based expert system shell, was used to reprogram the expert system for interpretation of amylase isoenzyme patterns that has been in use for many years in our laboratory, and that was originally programmed in Pro.MD, a Prolog based expert system shell. One of the most important advantages of the j.MD system is its bidirectional link with the laboratory information system. This project shows how expert systems for the interpretation of complex diagnostic tests that demand specific expertise can become an integrated part of the automated clinical chemistry lab.

  14. Structure of the knowledge base for an expert labeling system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajaram, N. S.

    1981-01-01

    One of the principal objectives of the NASA AgRISTARS program is the inventory of global crop resources using remotely sensed data gathered by Land Satellites (LANDSAT). A central problem in any such crop inventory procedure is the interpretation of LANDSAT images and identification of parts of each image which are covered by a particular crop of interest. This task of labeling is largely a manual one done by trained human analysts and consequently presents obstacles to the development of totally automated crop inventory systems. However, development in knowledge engineering as well as widespread availability of inexpensive hardware and software for artificial intelligence work offers possibilities for developing expert systems for labeling of crops. Such a knowledge based approach to labeling is presented.

  15. 29 CFR 18.703 - Bases of opinion testimony by experts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... Bases of opinion testimony by experts. The facts or data in the particular case upon which an expert... 29 Labor 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 true Bases of opinion testimony by experts. 18.703 Section 18.703 Labor Office of the Secretary of Labor RULES OF PRACTICE AND PROCEDURE FOR ADMINISTRATIVE HEARINGS...

  16. An Evidence-Based Review and Survey of Expert Opinion of Reconstruction of Metastatic Spine Tumors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Altaf, Farhaan; Weber, Michael; Dea, Nicolas; Boriani, Stefano; Ames, Christopher; Williams, Richard; Verlaan, Jorrit-Jan; Laufer, Ilya; Fisher, Charles G.

    2016-01-01

    STUDY DESIGN.: Systematic review and consensus expert opinion. OBJECTIVE.: To provide surgeons and other health care professionals with guidelines for surgical reconstruction of metastatic spine disease based on evidence and expert opinion. SUMMARY OF BACKGROUND DATA.: The surgical treatment of

  17. Climate change and moral judgement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Markowitz, Ezra M.; Shariff, Azim F.

    2012-04-01

    Converging evidence from the behavioural and brain sciences suggests that the human moral judgement system is not well equipped to identify climate change -- a complex, large-scale and unintentionally caused phenomenon -- as an important moral imperative. As climate change fails to generate strong moral intuitions, it does not motivate an urgent need for action in the way that other moral imperatives do. We review six reasons why climate change poses significant challenges to our moral judgement system and describe six strategies that communicators might use to confront these challenges. Enhancing moral intuitions about climate change may motivate greater support for ameliorative actions and policies.

  18. Teacher Education for Democratic Participation: The Need for Teacher Judgement in Times of Evidence-Based Teaching

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liljestrand, Johan

    2014-01-01

    According to national and international policy, teachers' work is supposed to be guided by reliable evidence in order to be effective and achieve the set goals. The purpose of this article is to problematise evidence-based approaches for teacher education by highlighting the occurrence of dilemmas in teachers' work connected to the assignment of…

  19. A new Expert Finding model based on Term Correlation Matrix

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ehsan Pornour

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Due to the enormous volume of unstructured information available on the Web and inside organization, finding an answer to the knowledge need in a short time is difficult. For this reason, beside Search Engines which don’t consider users individual characteristics, Recommender systems were created which use user’s previous activities and other individual characteristics to help users find needed knowledge. Recommender systems usage is increasing every day. Expert finder systems also by introducing expert people instead of recommending information to users have provided this facility for users to ask their questions form experts. Having relation with experts not only causes information transition, but also with transferring experiences and inception causes knowledge transition. In this paper we used university professors academic resume as expert people profile and then proposed a new expert finding model that recommends experts to users query. We used Term Correlation Matrix, Vector Space Model and PageRank algorithm and proposed a new hybrid model which outperforms conventional methods. This model can be used in internet environment, organizations and universities that experts have resume dataset.

  20. Expert music performance: cognitive, neural, and developmental bases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Rachel M; Zatorre, Robert J; Penhune, Virginia B

    2015-01-01

    In this chapter, we explore what happens in the brain of an expert musician during performance. Understanding expert music performance is interesting to cognitive neuroscientists not only because it tests the limits of human memory and movement, but also because studying expert musicianship can help us understand skilled human behavior in general. In this chapter, we outline important facets of our current understanding of the cognitive and neural basis for music performance, and developmental factors that may underlie musical ability. We address three main questions. (1) What is expert performance? (2) How do musicians achieve expert-level performance? (3) How does expert performance come about? We address the first question by describing musicians' ability to remember, plan, execute, and monitor their performances in order to perform music accurately and expressively. We address the second question by reviewing evidence for possible cognitive and neural mechanisms that may underlie or contribute to expert music performance, including the integration of sound and movement, feedforward and feedback motor control processes, expectancy, and imagery. We further discuss how neural circuits in auditory, motor, parietal, subcortical, and frontal cortex all contribute to different facets of musical expertise. Finally, we address the third question by reviewing evidence for the heritability of musical expertise and for how expertise develops through training and practice. We end by discussing outlooks for future work. © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. Applications of fuzzy sets to rule-based expert system development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lea, Robert N.

    1989-01-01

    Problems of implementing rule-based expert systems using fuzzy sets are considered. A fuzzy logic software development shell is used that allows inclusion of both crisp and fuzzy rules in decision making and process control problems. Results are given that compare this type of expert system to a human expert in some specific applications. Advantages and disadvantages of such systems are discussed.

  2. A living PSA based on use of expert systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ancelin, C.; Bouissou, M.; Le, P.; De Saint-Quentin, S.; Villatte, N.

    1989-01-01

    This paper presents the expert systems that are developed by EDF in the framework of the French PSA. Aimed at automatically generating reliability models (fault trees, state graphs....), these expert systems are used for the reliability studies of safety systems in the Paluel nuclear power plant. Beyond the description of the implemented method, this paper insists on the new approach proposed to the reliability engineer, when using artificial intelligence techniques

  3. The Method of Adaptive Comparative Judgement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pollitt, Alastair

    2012-01-01

    Adaptive Comparative Judgement (ACJ) is a modification of Thurstone's method of comparative judgement that exploits the power of adaptivity, but in scoring rather than testing. Professional judgement by teachers replaces the marking of tests; a judge is asked to compare the work of two students and simply to decide which of them is the better.…

  4. Teachers' professional judgement in real teaching situations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mikkelsen, Sidse Hølvig; Daugbjerg, Peer; Sommer, Lise

    2017-01-01

    . Teachers' capability to make sensible judgements in pedagogical situations and moments are based on their personal norms and knowledge. Norms and knowledge that makes it possible for them to make well-considered decisions regarding good teaching. Teachers' planned changes in teaching are typically well......-prepared, well-rehearsed, and experience based. Disturbances, unexpected ruptures or deviations from plan demand that teachers improvise regarding which actions to carry out. The considerations the teachers make in these situations are not directly available for investigation. The actions can be conscious...

  5. A Belief Rule Based Expert System to Assess Mental Disorder under Uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hossain, Mohammad Shahadat; Afif Monrat, Ahmed; Hasan, Mamun

    2016-01-01

    to ignorance, incompleteness, and randomness. So, a belief rule-based expert system (BRBES) has been designed and developed with the capability of handling the uncertainties mentioned. Evidential reasoning works as the inference engine and the belief rule base as the knowledge representation schema...... in this BRBES. The study shows that the results generated by BRBES are more reliable than that of Fuzzy Rule-based expert system and from a human expert....

  6. Evaluation of a Performance-Based Expert Elicitation: WHO Global Attribution of Foodborne Diseases

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aspinall, W. P.; Cooke, R. M.; Havelaar, A. H.

    2016-01-01

    . This paper presents new findings from a large-scale international SEJ study intended to estimate the global burden of foodborne disease on behalf of WHO. The study involved 72 experts distributed over 134 expert panels, with panels comprising thirteen experts on average. Elicitations were conducted in five....... Equal weights combinations were also calculated. The main conclusions on expert performance are: (1) SEJ does provide a science-based method for attribution of the global burden of foodborne diseases; (2) equal weighting of experts per panel increased statistical accuracy to acceptable levels...

  7. Expert-systems and computer-based industrial systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Terrien, J.F.

    1987-01-01

    Framatome makes wide use of expert systems, computer-assisted engineering, production management and personnel training. It has set up separate business units and subsidiaries and also participates in other companies which have the relevant expertise. Five examples of the products and services available in these are discussed. These are in the field of applied artificial intelligence and expert-systems, in integrated computer-aid design and engineering, structural analysis, computer-related products and services and document management systems. The structure of the companies involved and the work they are doing is discussed. (UK)

  8. Cell Phone-Based Expert Systems for Smoking Cessation

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-03-01

    of the participants (n=167; 71.1%) were in PC, C or PR at baseline for healthy eating (i.e., eating a low-fat diet and proper caloric intake). Of...risk expert systems interventions: impact of simultaneous stage-matched expert system interventions for smoking, high-fat diet , and sun exposure in a...slide 15 was unclear and could be a jungle gym , a café or a snack bar. The text in the image on slide 18 was not legible. Like (N=16): Participants

  9. Expert status and performance.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark A Burgman

    Full Text Available Expert judgements are essential when time and resources are stretched or we face novel dilemmas requiring fast solutions. Good advice can save lives and large sums of money. Typically, experts are defined by their qualifications, track record and experience. The social expectation hypothesis argues that more highly regarded and more experienced experts will give better advice. We asked experts to predict how they will perform, and how their peers will perform, on sets of questions. The results indicate that the way experts regard each other is consistent, but unfortunately, ranks are a poor guide to actual performance. Expert advice will be more accurate if technical decisions routinely use broadly-defined expert groups, structured question protocols and feedback.

  10. A Fuzzy Rule-Based Expert System for Evaluating Intellectual Capital

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Hossein Fazel Zarandi

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available A fuzzy rule-based expert system is developed for evaluating intellectual capital. A fuzzy linguistic approach assists managers to understand and evaluate the level of each intellectual capital item. The proposed fuzzy rule-based expert system applies fuzzy linguistic variables to express the level of qualitative evaluation and criteria of experts. Feasibility of the proposed model is demonstrated by the result of intellectual capital performance evaluation for a sample company.

  11. Strategies for adding adaptive learning mechanisms to rule-based diagnostic expert systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stclair, D. C.; Sabharwal, C. L.; Bond, W. E.; Hacke, Keith

    1988-01-01

    Rule-based diagnostic expert systems can be used to perform many of the diagnostic chores necessary in today's complex space systems. These expert systems typically take a set of symptoms as input and produce diagnostic advice as output. The primary objective of such expert systems is to provide accurate and comprehensive advice which can be used to help return the space system in question to nominal operation. The development and maintenance of diagnostic expert systems is time and labor intensive since the services of both knowledge engineer(s) and domain expert(s) are required. The use of adaptive learning mechanisms to increment evaluate and refine rules promises to reduce both time and labor costs associated with such systems. This paper describes the basic adaptive learning mechanisms of strengthening, weakening, generalization, discrimination, and discovery. Next basic strategies are discussed for adding these learning mechanisms to rule-based diagnostic expert systems. These strategies support the incremental evaluation and refinement of rules in the knowledge base by comparing the set of advice given by the expert system (A) with the correct diagnosis (C). Techniques are described for selecting those rules in the in the knowledge base which should participate in adaptive learning. The strategies presented may be used with a wide variety of learning algorithms. Further, these strategies are applicable to a large number of rule-based diagnostic expert systems. They may be used to provide either immediate or deferred updating of the knowledge base.

  12. Professional nurses' understanding of clinical judgement: A contextual inquiry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna C. van Graan

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Higher cognitive skills are essential competencies for nurses joining the technologically and increasingly complex health care environment to provide safe and effective nursing care. Educators and clinical facilitators have recognised that newly qualified nurses do not meet the expectations for entry level clinical judgement and are held accountable for finding adequate learning experiences as preparation for such practice demands. An explorative and descriptive qualitative design was followed in this study to reach an understanding of clinical judgement in the clinical nursing environment from the perspective of professional nurses. Eleven professional nurses (n = 11 working at primary health care clinics, public and private hospitals participated voluntarily. Data was collected by means of the “World Cafe” method, incorporating a combination of techniques such as interviewing, discussions, drawings, narratives and reflection. The focus was on professional nurses' knowledge of the meaning of clinical judgement and factors influencing the development of clinical judgement in the clinical environment. Qualitative thematic content analysis principles were applied during data analysis. The findings were integrated with the relevant literature to culminate in conclusions that should add to the knowledge base of clinical judgement as an essential skill for improving autonomous and accountable nursing care.

  13. Evaluation of a Performance-Based Expert Elicitation: WHO Global Attribution of Foodborne Diseases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aspinall, W. P.; Cooke, R. M.; Havelaar, A. H.; Hoffmann, S.; Hald, T.

    2016-01-01

    For many societally important science-based decisions, data are inadequate, unreliable or non-existent, and expert advice is sought. In such cases, procedures for eliciting structured expert judgments (SEJ) are increasingly used. This raises questions regarding validity and reproducibility. This paper presents new findings from a large-scale international SEJ study intended to estimate the global burden of foodborne disease on behalf of WHO. The study involved 72 experts distributed over 134 expert panels, with panels comprising thirteen experts on average. Elicitations were conducted in five languages. Performance-based weighted solutions for target questions of interest were formed for each panel. These weights were based on individual expert’s statistical accuracy and informativeness, determined using between ten and fifteen calibration variables from the experts' field with known values. Equal weights combinations were also calculated. The main conclusions on expert performance are: (1) SEJ does provide a science-based method for attribution of the global burden of foodborne diseases; (2) equal weighting of experts per panel increased statistical accuracy to acceptable levels, but at the cost of informativeness; (3) performance-based weighting increased informativeness, while retaining accuracy; (4) due to study constraints individual experts’ accuracies were generally lower than in other SEJ studies, and (5) there was a negative correlation between experts' informativeness and statistical accuracy which attenuated as accuracy improved, revealing that the least accurate experts drive the negative correlation. It is shown, however, that performance-based weighting has the ability to yield statistically accurate and informative combinations of experts' judgments, thereby offsetting this contrary influence. The present findings suggest that application of SEJ on a large scale is feasible, and motivate the development of enhanced training and tools for remote

  14. Development of a rule-based diagnostic platform on an object-oriented expert system shell

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Wenlin; Yang, Ming; Seong, Poong Hyun

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • Multilevel Flow Model represents system knowledge as a domain map in expert system. • Rule-based fault diagnostic expert system can identify root cause via a causal chain. • Rule-based fault diagnostic expert system can be used for fault simulation training. - Abstract: This paper presents the development and implementation of a real-time rule-based diagnostic platform. The knowledge is acquired from domain experts and textbooks and the design of the fault diagnosis expert system was performed in the following ways: (i) establishing of corresponding classes and instances to build the domain map, (ii) creating of generic fault models based on events, and (iii) building of diagnostic reasoning based on rules. Knowledge representation is a complicated issue of expert systems. One highlight of this paper is that the Multilevel Flow Model has been used to represent the knowledge, which composes the domain map within the expert system as well as providing a concise description of the system. The developed platform is illustrated using the pressure safety system of a pressurized water reactor as an example of the simulation test bed; the platform is developed using the commercial and industrially validated software G2. The emulation test was conducted and it has been proven that the fault diagnosis expert system can identify the faults correctly and in a timely way; this system can be used as a simulation-based training tool to assist operators to make better decisions.

  15. Brazilian medical students’ perceptions of expert versus non-expert facilitators in a (non problem-based learning environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lucélio B. Couto

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Background: In problem-based learning (PBL, the facilitator plays an important role in guiding the student learning process. However, although content expertise is generally regarded as a useful but non-essential prerequisite for effective PBL facilitation, the perceived importance of content knowledge may be subject to cultural, contextual, and/or experiential influences. Aim: We sought to examine medical students’ perceptions of subject-matter expertise among PBL facilitators in a region of the world (Brazil where such active learning pedagogies are not widely used in university or pre-university settings. Results: Of the 252 Brazilian medical students surveyed, significantly (p≤0.001 greater proportions viewed content expert facilitators to be more effective than their non-expert counterparts at building knowledge (95% vs. 6%, guiding the learning process (93% vs. 7%, achieving cognitive learning (92% vs. 18%, generating learning goals (87% vs. 15%, and motivating self-study (80% vs. 15%. Discussion/conclusion: According to Brazilian medical students, subject-matter expertise among PBL facilitators is essential to the learning process. We believe this widespread perception is due, in large part, to the relative lack of prior educational exposure to such pedagogies.

  16. Brazilian medical students' perceptions of expert versus non-expert facilitators in a (non) problem-based learning environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Couto, Lucélio B; Bestetti, Reinaldo B; Restini, Carolina B A; Faria, Milton; Romão, Gustavo S

    2015-01-01

    In problem-based learning (PBL), the facilitator plays an important role in guiding the student learning process. However, although content expertise is generally regarded as a useful but non-essential prerequisite for effective PBL facilitation, the perceived importance of content knowledge may be subject to cultural, contextual, and/or experiential influences. We sought to examine medical students' perceptions of subject-matter expertise among PBL facilitators in a region of the world (Brazil) where such active learning pedagogies are not widely used in university or pre-university settings. Of the 252 Brazilian medical students surveyed, significantly (p≤0.001) greater proportions viewed content expert facilitators to be more effective than their non-expert counterparts at building knowledge (95% vs. 6%), guiding the learning process (93% vs. 7%), achieving cognitive learning (92% vs. 18%), generating learning goals (87% vs. 15%), and motivating self-study (80% vs. 15%). According to Brazilian medical students, subject-matter expertise among PBL facilitators is essential to the learning process. We believe this widespread perception is due, in large part, to the relative lack of prior educational exposure to such pedagogies.

  17. Techniques and implementation of the embedded rule-based expert system using Ada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liberman, Eugene M.; Jones, Robert E.

    1991-01-01

    Ada is becoming an increasingly popular programming language for large Government-funded software projects. Ada with its portability, transportability, and maintainability lends itself well to today's complex programming environment. In addition, expert systems have also assured a growing role in providing human-like reasoning capability and expertise for computer systems. The integration of expert system technology with Ada programming language, specifically a rule-based expert system using an ART-Ada (Automated Reasoning Tool for Ada) system shell is discussed. The NASA Lewis Research Center was chosen as a beta test site for ART-Ada. The test was conducted by implementing the existing Autonomous Power EXpert System (APEX), a Lisp-base power expert system, in ART-Ada. Three components, the rule-based expert system, a graphics user interface, and communications software make up SMART-Ada (Systems fault Management with ART-Ada). The main objective, to conduct a beta test on the ART-Ada rule-based expert system shell, was achieved. The system is operational. New Ada tools will assist in future successful projects. ART-Ada is one such tool and is a viable alternative to the straight Ada code when an application requires a rule-based or knowledge-based approach.

  18. Children’s facial trustworthiness judgement: agreement and relationship with facial attractiveness

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fengling eMa

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available This study examined developmental changes in children’s abilities to make trustworthiness judgements based on faces and the relationship between a child’s perception of trustworthiness and facial attractiveness. One hundred and one 8-, 10- and 12-year-olds, along with 37 undergraduates, were asked to judge the trustworthiness of 200 faces. Next, they issued facial attractiveness judgements. The results indicated that children made consistent trustworthiness and attractiveness judgements based on facial appearance, but with-adult and within-age agreement levels of facial judgements increased with age. Additionally, the agreement levels of judgements made by girls were higher than those by boys. Furthermore, the relationship between trustworthiness and attractiveness judgements increased with age, and the relationship between two judgements made by girls was closer than those by boys. These findings suggest that face-based trait judgement ability develops throughout childhood and that, like adults, children may use facial attractiveness as a heuristic cue that signals a stranger’s trustworthiness.

  19. EXPERT SYSTEMS

    OpenAIRE

    Georgiana Marin; Mihai Catalin Andrei

    2011-01-01

    In recent decades IT and computer systems have evolved rapidly in economic informatics field. The goal is to create user friendly information systems that respond promptly and accurately to requests. Informatics systems evolved into decision assisted systems, and such systems are converted, based on gained experience, in expert systems for creative problem solving that an organization is facing. Expert systems are aimed at rebuilding human reasoning on the expertise obtained from experts, sto...

  20. A Belief Rule Based Expert System to Assess Tuberculosis under Uncertainty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hossain, Mohammad Shahadat; Ahmed, Faisal; Fatema-Tuj-Johora; Andersson, Karl

    2017-03-01

    The primary diagnosis of Tuberculosis (TB) is usually carried out by looking at the various signs and symptoms of a patient. However, these signs and symptoms cannot be measured with 100 % certainty since they are associated with various types of uncertainties such as vagueness, imprecision, randomness, ignorance and incompleteness. Consequently, traditional primary diagnosis, based on these signs and symptoms, which is carried out by the physicians, cannot deliver reliable results. Therefore, this article presents the design, development and applications of a Belief Rule Based Expert System (BRBES) with the ability to handle various types of uncertainties to diagnose TB. The knowledge base of this system is constructed by taking experts' suggestions and by analyzing historical data of TB patients. The experiments, carried out, by taking the data of 100 patients demonstrate that the BRBES's generated results are more reliable than that of human expert as well as fuzzy rule based expert system.

  1. Judicial judgement-making and legal criteria of testimonial credibility

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dolores Seijo

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Judicial judgement-making in legal and forensic settings is characterised by the information loss model. In comparison to formal reasoning styles, in which information is processed in detail, judicial reasoning styles are mainly informal. Moreover, the experimental literature regarding judges and juries has revealed that reliability is the corner stone of legal judgement-making in legal contexts. This study aims to assess the underlying legal criteria assigned to the credibility of testimonies by judges by evaluating the court archives of judicial judgements in which the verdict rested entirely on the credibility of testimonies. Moreover, given the prevalence of informal reasoning in this context, an analysis was undertaken to determine the use of heuristics which are indicative of informal reasoning. In addition, an analysis of the interaction of both variables and their effect on joint decision-making by legal experts and lay people was assessed. Finally, bearing in mind the limitations of this study, the results are discussed in terms of their implications in the evaluation of testimonial credibility in judicial proceedings.

  2. A method of knowledge base verification and validation for nuclear power plants expert systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kwon, Il Won

    1996-02-01

    The adoption of expert systems mainly as operator supporting systems is becoming increasingly popular as the control algorithms of system become more and more sophisticated and complicated. As a result of this popularity, a large number of expert systems are developed. The nature of expert systems, however, requires that they be verified and validated carefully and that detailed methodologies for their development be devised. Therefore, it is widely noted that assuring the reliability of expert systems is very important, especially in nuclear industry, and it is also recognized that the process of verification and validation is an essential part of reliability assurance for these systems. Research and practices have produced numerous methods for expert system verification and validation (V and V) that suggest traditional software and system approaches to V and V. However, many approaches and methods for expert system V and V are partial, unreliable, and not uniform. The purpose of this paper is to present a new approach to expert system V and V, based on Petri nets, providing a uniform model. We devise and suggest an automated tool, called COKEP (Checker Of Knowledge base using Extended Petri net), for checking incorrectness, inconsistency, and incompleteness in a knowledge base. We also suggest heuristic analysis for validation process to show that the reasoning path is correct

  3. Expert System

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hildebrandt, Thomas Troels; Cattani, Gian Luca

    2016-01-01

    An expert system is a computer system for inferring knowledge from a knowledge base, typically by using a set of inference rules. When the concept of expert systems was introduced at Stanford University in the early 1970s, the knowledge base was an unstructured set of facts. Today the knowledge...... base of expert systems is often given in terms of an ontology, extracted and built from various data sources by employing natural language-processing and statistics. To emphasize such capabilities, the term “expert” is now often replaced by “cognitive,” “knowledge,” “knowledge-based,” or “intelligent......” system. With very few exceptions, general-purpose expert systems have failed to emerge so far. However, expert systems are applied in specialized domains, particularly in healthcare. The increasing availability of large quantities of data to organizations today provides a valuable opportunity...

  4. Knowledge acquisition from natural language for expert systems based on classification problem-solving methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gomez, Fernando

    1989-01-01

    It is shown how certain kinds of domain independent expert systems based on classification problem-solving methods can be constructed directly from natural language descriptions by a human expert. The expert knowledge is not translated into production rules. Rather, it is mapped into conceptual structures which are integrated into long-term memory (LTM). The resulting system is one in which problem-solving, retrieval and memory organization are integrated processes. In other words, the same algorithm and knowledge representation structures are shared by these processes. As a result of this, the system can answer questions, solve problems or reorganize LTM.

  5. Plant Distribution Data Show Broader Climatic Limits than Expert-Based Climatic Tolerance Estimates.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Caroline A Curtis

    Full Text Available Although increasingly sophisticated environmental measures are being applied to species distributions models, the focus remains on using climatic data to provide estimates of habitat suitability. Climatic tolerance estimates based on expert knowledge are available for a wide range of plants via the USDA PLANTS database. We aim to test how climatic tolerance inferred from plant distribution records relates to tolerance estimated by experts. Further, we use this information to identify circumstances when species distributions are more likely to approximate climatic tolerance.We compiled expert knowledge estimates of minimum and maximum precipitation and minimum temperature tolerance for over 1800 conservation plant species from the 'plant characteristics' information in the USDA PLANTS database. We derived climatic tolerance from distribution data downloaded from the Global Biodiversity and Information Facility (GBIF and corresponding climate from WorldClim. We compared expert-derived climatic tolerance to empirical estimates to find the difference between their inferred climate niches (ΔCN, and tested whether ΔCN was influenced by growth form or range size.Climate niches calculated from distribution data were significantly broader than expert-based tolerance estimates (Mann-Whitney p values << 0.001. The average plant could tolerate 24 mm lower minimum precipitation, 14 mm higher maximum precipitation, and 7° C lower minimum temperatures based on distribution data relative to expert-based tolerance estimates. Species with larger ranges had greater ΔCN for minimum precipitation and minimum temperature. For maximum precipitation and minimum temperature, forbs and grasses tended to have larger ΔCN while grasses and trees had larger ΔCN for minimum precipitation.Our results show that distribution data are consistently broader than USDA PLANTS experts' knowledge and likely provide more robust estimates of climatic tolerance, especially for

  6. Belief-rule-based expert systems for evaluation of e-government

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hossain, Mohammad Shahadat; Zander, Pär-Ola Mikael; Kamal, Md Sarwar

    2015-01-01

    , it requires continuous evaluation of the overall e-government system as well as evaluation of its various dimensions such as determinants, characteristics and results. E-government development is often complex, with multiple stakeholders, large user bases and complex goals. Consequently, even experts have...... difficulties in evaluating these systems, especially in an integrated and comprehensive way, as well as on an aggregate level. Expert systems are a candidate solution to evaluate such complex e-government systems. However, it is difficult for expert systems to cope with uncertain evaluation data that are vague......, known as the Belief Rule Based Expert System (BRBES) and implemented in the local e-government of Bangladesh. The results have been compared with a recently developed method of evaluating e-government, and it is demonstrated that the results of the BRBES are more accurate and reliable. The BRBES can...

  7. Expert Systems Based Clinical Assessment and Tutorial Project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papa, Frank; Shores, Jay

    This project at the Texas College of Osteopathic Medicine (Fort Worth) evaluated the use of an artificial-intelligence-derived measure, "Knowledge-Based Inference Tool" (KBIT), as the basis for assessing medical students' diagnostic capabilities and designing instruction to improve diagnostic skills. The instrument was designed to…

  8. A rule-based expert system for generating control displays at the Advanced Photon Source

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coulter, K.J.

    1993-01-01

    The integration of a rule-based expert system for generating screen displays for controlling and monitoring instrumentation under the Experimental Physics and Industrial Control System (EPICS) is presented. The expert system is implemented using CLIPS, an expert system shell from the Software Technology Branch at Lyndon B. Johnson Space Center. The user selects the hardware input and output to be displayed and the expert system constructs a graphical control screen appropriate for the data. Such a system provides a method for implementing a common look and feel for displays created by several different users and reduces the amount of time required to create displays for new hardware configurations. Users are able to modify the displays as needed using the EPICS display editor tool

  9. Neural network based expert system for fault diagnosis of particle accelerators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dewidar, M.M.

    1997-01-01

    Particle accelerators are generators that produce beams of charged particles, acquiring different energies, depending on the accelerator type. The MGC-20 cyclotron is a cyclic particle accelerator used for accelerating protons, deuterons, alpha particles, and helium-3 to different energies. Its applications include isotope production, nuclear reaction, and mass spectroscopy studies. It is a complicated machine, it consists of five main parts, the ion source, the deflector, the beam transport system, the concentric and harmonic coils, and the radio frequency system. The diagnosis of this device is a very complex task. it depends on the conditions of 27 indicators of the control panel of the device. The accurate diagnosis can lead to a high system reliability and save maintenance costs. so an expert system for the cyclotron fault diagnosis is necessary to be built. In this thesis , a hybrid expert system was developed for the fault diagnosis of the MGC-20 cyclotron. Two intelligent techniques, multilayer feed forward back propagation neural network and the rule based expert system, are integrated as a pre-processor loosely coupled model to build the proposed hybrid expert system. The architecture of the developed hybrid expert system consists of two levels. The first level is two feed forward back propagation neural networks, used for isolating the faulty part of the cyclotron. The second level is the rule based expert system, used for troubleshooting the faults inside the isolated faulty part. 4-6 tabs., 4-5 figs., 36 refs

  10. Design of a Fuzzy Rule Base Expert System to Predict and Classify ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The main objective of design of a rule base expert system using fuzzy logic approach is to predict and forecast the risk level of cardiac patients to avoid sudden death. In this proposed system, uncertainty is captured using rule base and classification using fuzzy c-means clustering is discussed to overcome the risk level, ...

  11. Use of cccupancy models to evaluate expert knowledge-based species-habitat relationships

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iglecia, Monica N.; Collazo, Jaime A.; McKerrow, Alexa

    2012-01-01

    Expert knowledge-based species-habitat relationships are used extensively to guide conservation planning, particularly when data are scarce. Purported relationships describe the initial state of knowledge, but are rarely tested. We assessed support in the data for suitability rankings of vegetation types based on expert knowledge for three terrestrial avian species in the South Atlantic Coastal Plain of the United States. Experts used published studies, natural history, survey data, and field experience to rank vegetation types as optimal, suitable, and marginal. We used single-season occupancy models, coupled with land cover and Breeding Bird Survey data, to examine the hypothesis that patterns of occupancy conformed to species-habitat suitability rankings purported by experts. Purported habitat suitability was validated for two of three species. As predicted for the Eastern Wood-Pewee (Contopus virens) and Brown-headed Nuthatch (Sitta pusilla), occupancy was strongly influenced by vegetation types classified as “optimal habitat” by the species suitability rankings for nuthatches and wood-pewees. Contrary to predictions, Red-headed Woodpecker (Melanerpes erythrocephalus) models that included vegetation types as covariates received similar support by the data as models without vegetation types. For all three species, occupancy was also related to sampling latitude. Our results suggest that covariates representing other habitat requirements might be necessary to model occurrence of generalist species like the woodpecker. The modeling approach described herein provides a means to test expert knowledge-based species-habitat relationships, and hence, help guide conservation planning.

  12. Use of Occupancy Models to Evaluate Expert Knowledge-based Species-Habitat Relationships

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Monica N. Iglecia

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Expert knowledge-based species-habitat relationships are used extensively to guide conservation planning, particularly when data are scarce. Purported relationships describe the initial state of knowledge, but are rarely tested. We assessed support in the data for suitability rankings of vegetation types based on expert knowledge for three terrestrial avian species in the South Atlantic Coastal Plain of the United States. Experts used published studies, natural history, survey data, and field experience to rank vegetation types as optimal, suitable, and marginal. We used single-season occupancy models, coupled with land cover and Breeding Bird Survey data, to examine the hypothesis that patterns of occupancy conformed to species-habitat suitability rankings purported by experts. Purported habitat suitability was validated for two of three species. As predicted for the Eastern Wood-Pewee (Contopus virens and Brown-headed Nuthatch (Sitta pusilla, occupancy was strongly influenced by vegetation types classified as "optimal habitat" by the species suitability rankings for nuthatches and wood-pewees. Contrary to predictions, Red-headed Woodpecker (Melanerpes erythrocephalus models that included vegetation types as covariates received similar support by the data as models without vegetation types. For all three species, occupancy was also related to sampling latitude. Our results suggest that covariates representing other habitat requirements might be necessary to model occurrence of generalist species like the woodpecker. The modeling approach described herein provides a means to test expert knowledge-based species-habitat relationships, and hence, help guide conservation planning.

  13. Expert-based versus habitat-suitability models to develop resistance surfaces in landscape genetics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milanesi, Pietro; Holderegger, R; Caniglia, R; Fabbri, E; Galaverni, M; Randi, E

    2017-01-01

    Landscape genetics aims to investigate functional connectivity among wild populations by evaluating the impact of landscape features on gene flow. Genetic distances among populations or individuals are generally better explained by least-cost path (LCP) distances derived from resistance surfaces than by simple Euclidean distances. Resistance surfaces reflect the cost for an organism to move through particular landscape elements. However, determining the effects of landscape types on movements is challenging. Because of a general lack of empirical data on movements, resistance surfaces mostly rely on expert knowledge. Habitat-suitability models potentially provide a more objective method to estimate resistance surfaces than expert opinions, but they have rarely been applied in landscape genetics so far. We compared LCP distances based on expert knowledge with LCP distances derived from habitat-suitability models to evaluate their performance in landscape genetics. We related all LCP distances to genetic distances in linear mixed effect models on an empirical data set of wolves (Canis lupus) from Italy. All LCP distances showed highly significant (P ≤ 0.0001) standardized β coefficients and R 2 values, but LCPs from habitat-suitability models generally showed higher values than those resulting from expert knowledge. Moreover, all LCP distances better explained genetic distances than Euclidean distances, irrespective of the approaches used. Considering our results, we encourage researchers in landscape genetics to use resistance surfaces based on habitat suitability which performed better than expert-based LCPs in explaining patterns of gene flow and functional connectivity.

  14. Research bias in judgement bias studies : A systematic review of valuation judgement literature

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klamer, Pim; Bakker, C.; Gruis, Vincent

    2017-01-01

    Valuation judgement bias has been a research topic for several years due to its proclaimed effect on valuation accuracy. However, little is known on the emphasis of literature on judgement bias, with regard to, for instance, research methodologies, research context and robustness of research

  15. Research bias in judgement bias studies : a systematic review of valuation judgement literature

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klamer, Pim; Bakker, Cok; Gruis, V.H.

    2017-01-01

    Valuation judgement bias has been a research topic for several years due to its proclaimed effect on valuation accuracy. However, little is known on the emphasis of literature on judgement bias, with regard to, for instance, research methodologies, research context and robustness of research

  16. Automated implementation of rule-based expert systems with neural networks for time-critical applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramamoorthy, P. A.; Huang, Song; Govind, Girish

    1991-01-01

    In fault diagnosis, control and real-time monitoring, both timing and accuracy are critical for operators or machines to reach proper solutions or appropriate actions. Expert systems are becoming more popular in the manufacturing community for dealing with such problems. In recent years, neural networks have revived and their applications have spread to many areas of science and engineering. A method of using neural networks to implement rule-based expert systems for time-critical applications is discussed here. This method can convert a given rule-based system into a neural network with fixed weights and thresholds. The rules governing the translation are presented along with some examples. We also present the results of automated machine implementation of such networks from the given rule-base. This significantly simplifies the translation process to neural network expert systems from conventional rule-based systems. Results comparing the performance of the proposed approach based on neural networks vs. the classical approach are given. The possibility of very large scale integration (VLSI) realization of such neural network expert systems is also discussed.

  17. A Model-Based Expert System for Space Power Distribution Diagnostics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quinn, Todd M.; Schlegelmilch, Richard F.

    1994-01-01

    When engineers diagnose system failures, they often use models to confirm system operation. This concept has produced a class of advanced expert systems that perform model-based diagnosis. A model-based diagnostic expert system for the Space Station Freedom electrical power distribution test bed is currently being developed at the NASA Lewis Research Center. The objective of this expert system is to autonomously detect and isolate electrical fault conditions. Marple, a software package developed at TRW, provides a model-based environment utilizing constraint suspension. Originally, constraint suspension techniques were developed for digital systems. However, Marple provides the mechanisms for applying this approach to analog systems such as the test bed, as well. The expert system was developed using Marple and Lucid Common Lisp running on a Sun Sparc-2 workstation. The Marple modeling environment has proved to be a useful tool for investigating the various aspects of model-based diagnostics. This report describes work completed to date and lessons learned while employing model-based diagnostics using constraint suspension within an analog system.

  18. BMExpert: Mining MEDLINE for Finding Experts in Biomedical Domains Based on Language Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Beichen; Chen, Xiaodong; Mamitsuka, Hiroshi; Zhu, Shanfeng

    2015-01-01

    With the rapid development of biomedical sciences, a great number of documents have been published to report new scientific findings and advance the process of knowledge discovery. By the end of 2013, the largest biomedical literature database, MEDLINE, has indexed over 23 million abstracts. It is thus not easy for scientific professionals to find experts on a certain topic in the biomedical domain. In contrast to the existing services that use some ad hoc approaches, we developed a novel solution to biomedical expert finding, BMExpert, based on the language model. For finding biomedical experts, who are the most relevant to a specific topic query, BMExpert mines MEDLINE documents by considering three important factors: relevance of documents to the query topic, importance of documents, and associations between documents and experts. The performance of BMExpert was evaluated on a benchmark dataset, which was built by collecting the program committee members of ISMB in the past three years (2012-2014) on 14 different topics. Experimental results show that BMExpert outperformed three existing biomedical expert finding services: JANE, GoPubMed, and eTBLAST, with respect to both MAP (mean average precision) and P@50 (Precision). BMExpert is freely accessed at http://datamining-iip.fudan.edu.cn/service/BMExpert/.

  19. An Automatic Document Indexing System Based on Cooperating Expert Systems: Design and Development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schuegraf, Ernst J.; van Bommel, Martin F.

    1993-01-01

    Describes the design of an automatic indexing system that is based on statistical techniques and expert system technology. Highlights include system architecture; the derivation of topic indicators, including word frequency; experimental results using documents from ERIC; the effects of stemming; and the identification of characteristic…

  20. Experts' adjustment to model-based forecasts: Does the forecast horizon matter?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans); R. Legerstee (Rianne)

    2007-01-01

    textabstractExperts may have domain-specific knowledge that is not included in a statistical model and that can improve forecasts. While one-step-ahead forecasts address the conditional mean of the variable, model-based forecasts for longer horizons have a tendency to convert to the unconditional

  1. SLC beam line error analysis using a model-based expert system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, M.; Kleban, S.

    1988-02-01

    Commissioning particle beam line is usually a very time-consuming and labor-intensive task for accelerator physicists. To aid in commissioning, we developed a model-based expert system that identifies error-free regions, as well as localizing beam line errors. This paper will give examples of the use of our system for the SLC commissioning. 8 refs., 5 figs

  2. Web Based Cattle Disease Expert System Diagnosis with forward Chaining Method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zamsuri, Ahmad; Syafitri, Wenni; Sadar, Muhamad

    2017-12-01

    Cattle is one of the livestock who have high economic potential, whether for livestock, cattle seed, or even for food stock. Everything that comes from Cattle is a treasure for example the Milk, the Meat, and Cattle-hide. The factor that cause Cattles to die is the spread of disease that could crock up the Cattle’s health. So that the Expert system is needed to utilize and analye the Cattle’s disease so it could detect the disease without going to the veterinarian. Forward chaining method is one of the correct method in this expert system wherein began with Symptoms to determine the illness. From this matter, we built a web based expert system application on Cattles disease to ease the disease detection and showing the brief information about the Cattles itself.

  3. Some comments on the substituted judgement standard.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Egonsson, Dan

    2010-02-01

    On a traditional interpretation of the substituted judgement standard (SJS) a person who makes treatment decisions on behalf of a non-competent patient (e.g. concerning euthanasia) ought to decide as the patient would have decided had she been competent. I propose an alternative interpretation of SJS in which the surrogate is required to infer what the patient actually thought about these end-of-life decisions. In clarifying SJS it is also important to differentiate the patient's consent and preference. If SJS is part of an autonomy ideal of the sort found in Kantian ethics, consent seems more important than preference. From a utilitarian perspective a preference-based reading of SJS seems natural. I argue that the justification of SJS within a utilitarian framework will boil down to the question whether a non-competent patient can be said to have any surviving preferences. If we give a virtue-ethical justification of SJS the relative importance of consent and preferences depends on which virtue one stresses--respect or care. I argue that SJS might be an independent normative method for extending the patient's autonomy, both from a Kantian and a virtue ethical perspective.

  4. Juggling revisited - a voxel-based morphometry study with expert jugglers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerber, P; Schlaffke, L; Heba, S; Greenlee, M W; Schultz, T; Schmidt-Wilcke, T

    2014-07-15

    Juggling is a highly interesting tool to investigate neuroplasticity associated with motor-learning. Several brain-imaging studies have reported changes in regional brain morphology in visual association cortices in individuals learning how to juggle a three-ball cascade. However, to our knowledge there are no studies that investigated expert jugglers, looking for specific features in regional brain morphology related to this highly specialized skill. Using T1-weighted images and voxel-based morphometry we investigated in a cross-sectional study design 16 expert jugglers, able to juggle at least five balls and an age- and gender-matched group of non-jugglers. We hypothesized that expert jugglers would show higher gray matter density in regions involved in visual motion perception and eye-hand coordination. Images were pre-processed and analyzed using SPM8. Age was included in the analyses as covariate of no interest. As compared to controls jugglers displayed several clusters of higher, regional gray matter density in the occipital and parietal lobes including the secondary visual cortex, the hMT+/V5 area bilaterally and the intraparietal sulcus bilaterally. Within the jugglers group we also found a correlation between performance and regional gray matter density in the right hMT+/V5 area. Our study provides evidence that expert jugglers show increased gray matter density in brain regions involved in visual motion perception and eye-hand coordination, i.e. brain areas that have previously been shown to undergo dynamic changes in terms of gray matter increases in subjects learning a basic three-ball cascade. The extent to which transient increases in beginners and the differences in experts and non-experts are based on the same neurobiological correlates remains to be fully elucidated. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Moral judgement by the disconnected left and right cerebral hemispheres: a split-brain investigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steckler, Conor M; Hamlin, J Kiley; Miller, Michael B; King, Danielle; Kingstone, Alan

    2017-07-01

    Owing to the hemispheric isolation resulting from a severed corpus callosum, research on split-brain patients can help elucidate the brain regions necessary and sufficient for moral judgement. Notably, typically developing adults heavily weight the intentions underlying others' moral actions, placing greater importance on valenced intentions versus outcomes when assigning praise and blame. Prioritization of intent in moral judgements may depend on neural activity in the right hemisphere's temporoparietal junction, an area implicated in reasoning about mental states. To date, split-brain research has found that the right hemisphere is necessary for intent-based moral judgement. When testing the left hemisphere using linguistically based moral vignettes, split-brain patients evaluate actions based on outcomes, not intentions. Because the right hemisphere has limited language ability relative to the left, and morality paradigms to date have involved significant linguistic demands, it is currently unknown whether the right hemisphere alone generates intent-based judgements. Here we use nonlinguistic morality plays with split-brain patient J.W. to examine the moral judgements of the disconnected right hemisphere, demonstrating a clear focus on intent. This finding indicates that the right hemisphere is not only necessary but also sufficient for intent-based moral judgement, advancing research into the neural systems supporting the moral sense.

  6. A development process meta-model for Web based expert systems: The Web engineering point of view

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dokas, I.M.; Alapetite, Alexandre

    2006-01-01

    Similar to many legacy computer systems, expert systems can be accessed via the Web, forming a set of Web applications known as Web based expert systems. The tough Web competition, the way people and organizations rely on Web applications and theincreasing user requirements for better services have...... raised their complexity. Unfortunately, there is so far no clear answer to the question: How may the methods and experience of Web engineering and expert systems be combined and applied in order todevelop effective and successful Web based expert systems? In an attempt to answer this question......, a development process meta-model for Web based expert systems will be presented. Based on this meta-model, a publicly available Web based expert systemcalled Landfill Operation Management Advisor (LOMA) was developed. In addition, the results of an accessibility evaluation on LOMA – the first ever reported...

  7. Clinical judgement and the medical profession.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kienle, Gunver S; Kiene, Helmut

    2011-08-01

    Clinical judgment is a central element of the medical profession, essential for the performance of the doctor, and potentially generating information also for other clinicians and for scientists and health care managers. The recently renewed interest in clinical judgement is primarily engaged with its role in communication, diagnosis and decision making. Beyond this issue, the present article highlights the interrelations between clinical judgement, therapy assessment and medical professionalism. Literature review and theory development. The article presents different methodological approaches to causality assessment in clinical studies and in clinical judgement, and offers criteria for clinical single case causality. The article outlines models of medical professionalism such as technical rationality and practice epistemology, and characterizes features of professional expertise such as tacit knowledge, reflection in action, and gestalt cognition. Consequences of a methodological and logistical advancement of clinical judgment are discussed, both in regard to medical progress and to the renewal of the cognitive basis of the medical profession. © 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  8. Clinical judgement and the medical profession

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kienle, Gunver S; Kiene, Helmut

    2011-01-01

    Objectives Clinical judgment is a central element of the medical profession, essential for the performance of the doctor, and potentially generating information also for other clinicians and for scientists and health care managers. The recently renewed interest in clinical judgement is primarily engaged with its role in communication, diagnosis and decision making. Beyond this issue, the present article highlights the interrelations between clinical judgement, therapy assessment and medical professionalism. Methods Literature review and theory development. Results The article presents different methodological approaches to causality assessment in clinical studies and in clinical judgement, and offers criteria for clinical single case causality. The article outlines models of medical professionalism such as technical rationality and practice epistemology, and characterizes features of professional expertise such as tacit knowledge, reflection in action, and gestalt cognition. Conclusions Consequences of a methodological and logistical advancement of clinical judgment are discussed, both in regard to medical progress and to the renewel of the cognitive basis of the medical profession. PMID:20973873

  9. International, Expert-Based, Consensus Statement Regarding the Management of Acute Diverticulitis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Leary, D Peter; Lynch, Noel; Clancy, Cillian; Winter, Desmond C; Myers, Eddie

    2015-09-01

    This Delphi study provides consensus related to many aspects of acute diverticulitis and identifies other areas in need of research. To generate an international, expert-based, consensus statement to address controversies in the management of acute diverticulitis. This study was conducted using the Delphi technique from April 3 through October 21, 2014. A survey website was used and a panel of acute diverticulitis experts was formed via the snowball method. The top 5 acute diverticulitis experts in 5 international geographic regions were identified based on their number of publications related to acute diverticulitis. The Delphi study used 3 rounds of questions, after which the consensus statement was collated. A consensus statement related to the management of acute diverticulitis. Twenty items were selected for inclusion in the consensus statement following 3 rounds of questioning. A clear definition of uncomplicated and complicated diverticulitis is provided. In uncomplicated diverticulitis, consensus was reached regarding appropriate laboratory and radiological evaluation of patients as well as nonsurgical, surgical, and follow-up strategies. A number of important topics, including antibiotic treatment, failed to reach consensus. In addition, consensus was reached regarding many nonsurgical and surgical treatment strategies in complicated diverticulitis. Controversy continues internationally regarding the management of acute diverticulitis. This study demonstrates that there is more nonconsensus among experts than consensus regarding most issues, even in the same region. It also provides insight into the status quo regarding the treatment of acute diverticulitis and provides important direction for future research.

  10. Dressing up posture: The interactive effects of posture and clothing on competency judgements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gurney, Daniel J; Howlett, Neil; Pine, Karen; Tracey, Megan; Moggridge, Rachel

    2017-05-01

    Individuals often receive judgements from others based on their clothing and their posture. While both of these factors have been found to influence judgements of competency independently, their relative importance in impression formation is yet to be investigated. We address this by examining interactive effects of posture and clothing on four competency measures: confidence, professionalism, approachability, and likeliness of a high salary. Participants rated photographs of both male and female models pictured in different postures (strong, neutral, weak) in smart clothing (a suit for males; both a trouser suit and skirt suit for females) and casual clothing. We confirm that posture manipulations affected judgements of individuals differently according to the clothing they were pictured in. The nature of these interactions varied by gender and, for women, competency judgements differed according to attire type (trouser or skirt suit). The implications of these findings in relation to impression formation are discussed. © 2016 The British Psychological Society.

  11. Integrating clinicians, knowledge and data: expert-based cooperative analysis in healthcare decision support

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    García-Alonso Carlos

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Decision support in health systems is a highly difficult task, due to the inherent complexity of the process and structures involved. Method This paper introduces a new hybrid methodology Expert-based Cooperative Analysis (EbCA, which incorporates explicit prior expert knowledge in data analysis methods, and elicits implicit or tacit expert knowledge (IK to improve decision support in healthcare systems. EbCA has been applied to two different case studies, showing its usability and versatility: 1 Bench-marking of small mental health areas based on technical efficiency estimated by EbCA-Data Envelopment Analysis (EbCA-DEA, and 2 Case-mix of schizophrenia based on functional dependency using Clustering Based on Rules (ClBR. In both cases comparisons towards classical procedures using qualitative explicit prior knowledge were made. Bayesian predictive validity measures were used for comparison with expert panels results. Overall agreement was tested by Intraclass Correlation Coefficient in case "1" and kappa in both cases. Results EbCA is a new methodology composed by 6 steps:. 1 Data collection and data preparation; 2 acquisition of "Prior Expert Knowledge" (PEK and design of the "Prior Knowledge Base" (PKB; 3 PKB-guided analysis; 4 support-interpretation tools to evaluate results and detect inconsistencies (here Implicit Knowledg -IK- might be elicited; 5 incorporation of elicited IK in PKB and repeat till a satisfactory solution; 6 post-processing results for decision support. EbCA has been useful for incorporating PEK in two different analysis methods (DEA and Clustering, applied respectively to assess technical efficiency of small mental health areas and for case-mix of schizophrenia based on functional dependency. Differences in results obtained with classical approaches were mainly related to the IK which could be elicited by using EbCA and had major implications for the decision making in both cases. Discussion This

  12. Automated planning target volume generation: an evaluation pitting a computer-based tool against human experts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ketting, Case H.; Austin-Seymour, Mary; Kalet, Ira; Jacky, Jon; Kromhout-Schiro, Sharon; Hummel, Sharon; Unger, Jonathan; Fagan, Lawrence M.; Griffin, Tom

    1997-01-01

    Purpose: Software tools are seeing increased use in three-dimensional treatment planning. However, the development of these tools frequently omits careful evaluation before placing them in clinical use. This study demonstrates the application of a rigorous evaluation methodology using blinded peer review to an automated software tool that produces ICRU-50 planning target volumes (PTVs). Methods and Materials: Seven physicians from three different institutions involved in three-dimensional treatment planning participated in the evaluation. Four physicians drew partial PTVs on nine test cases, consisting of four nasopharynx and five lung primaries. Using the same information provided to the human experts, the computer tool generated PTVs for comparison. The remaining three physicians, designated evaluators, individually reviewed the PTVs for acceptability. To exclude bias, the evaluators were blinded to the source (human or computer) of the PTVs they reviewed. Their scorings of the PTVs were statistically examined to determine if the computer tool performed as well as the human experts. Results: The computer tool was as successful as the human experts in generating PTVs. Failures were primarily attributable to insufficient margins around the clinical target volume and to encroachment upon critical structures. In a qualitative analysis, the human and computer experts displayed similar types and distributions of errors. Conclusions: Rigorous evaluation of computer-based radiotherapy tools requires comparison to current practice and can reveal areas for improvement before the tool enters clinical practice

  13. Optimizing the Timing of Expert Feedback During Simulation-Based Spaced Practice of Endourologic Skills.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Jason Young; McDougall, Elspeth M; Lineberry, Matthew; Tekian, Ara

    2016-08-01

    Provision of expert feedback is widely acknowledged to be an essential component of simulation-based training. However, little is known about the most effective and efficient ways to provide feedback to novices. Optimizing the timing of expert feedback may improve outcomes while reducing resource requirements. The main objective of this study was to determine the impact of providing early versus late expert feedback to novice learners engaged in a flexible ureteroscopy (fURS) training curriculum. Senior medical students were recruited to participate in this study. Each student participated in a comprehensive fURS training curriculum that included 3 deliberate, independent practice sessions. Baseline and postcourse fURS skill was assessed for each student using a standardized fURS test task. Each student was randomized to either an early feedback group (EFG) or late feedback group (LFG). The EFG participants were provided expert feedback immediately after the baseline skill test, whereas LFG participants were given feedback before their final deliberate, independent practice session. Eighteen senior medical students completed the study (9 EFG and 9 LFG participants). There were no discernible demographic differences between the groups at baseline. When controlling for pretest performance, early rather than late feedback was associated with both shorter postcourse time to completion of the task (19.2 vs. 21.5 minutes, P feedback when learning a novel skill. Further study is required.

  14. Professional nurses' understanding of clinical judgement: A ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Higher cognitive skills are essential competencies for nurses joining the technologically and increasingly complex health care environment to provide safe and effective nursing care. Educators and clinical facilitators have recognised that newly qualified nurses do not meet the expectations for entry level clinical judgement ...

  15. Transsituational relations between personality cues and judgements

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    1981-01-01

    In this dissertation the transsituational consistency of the two kinds of personality measures was compared: (1) judgments, i.e., inferential judgements in terms of global traits; (2) cues, i.e., behavioral observation data and other characteristics of stimulus persons, that can be measured

  16. Collective vs. Expert Rationality for Evaluation of New Technologies in Crowdsourcing Initiatives

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lauto, Giancarlo; Valentin, Finn

    in this task by offering a collective assessment of the quality of ideas. This paper investigates to what extent the judgement of markets and experts overlaps. We take as our empirical case an internal idea competition launched by a multinational company operating in a science-based industry. The study shows......As firms open the innovation process to the contribution of large groups of users and experts, the process of idea generation benefits from an increased volume and variety of inputs. This implies also an escalation of the complexity of idea screening and selection. Idea markets assist managers...

  17. Expert consensus v. evidence-based approaches in the revision of the DSM.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kendler, K S; Solomon, M

    2016-08-01

    The development of DSM-III through DSM-5 has relied heavily on expert consensus. In this essay, we provide an historical and critical perspective on this process. Over the last 40 years, medicine has struggled to find appropriate methods for summarizing research results and making clinical recommendations. When such recommendations are issued by authorized organizations, they can have widespread influence (i.e. DSM-III and its successors). In the 1970s, expert consensus conferences, led by the NIH, reviewed research about controversial medical issues and successfully disseminated results. However, these consensus conferences struggled with aggregating the complex available evidence. In the 1990s, the rise of evidence-based medicine cast doubt on the reliability of expert consensus. Since then, medicine has increasingly relied on systematic reviews, as developed by the evidence-based medicine movement, and advocated for their early incorporation in expert consensus efforts. With the partial exception of DSM-IV, such systematic evidence-based reviews have not been consistently integrated into the development of the DSMs, leaving their development out of step with the larger medical field. Like the recommendations made for the NIH consensus conferences, we argue that the DSM process should be modified to require systematic evidence-based reviews before Work Groups make their assessments. Our suggestions - which would require leadership and additional resources to set standards for appropriate evidence hierarchies, carry out systematic reviews, and upgrade the group process - should improve the objectivity of the DSM, increase the validity of its results, and improve the reception of any changes in nosology.

  18. Developing a PC-based expert system for fault analysis of reactor instruments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Diwakar, M.P.; Rathod, N.C.; Bairi, B.R.; Darbhe, M.D.; Joglekar, S.S.

    1989-01-01

    This paper describes the development of an expert system for fault analysis of electronic instruments in the CIRUS nuclear reactor. The system was developed in Prolog on an IBM PC-XT compatible computer. A 'model-based' approach (Button et al, 1986) was adopted combining 'frames' and 'rules' to provide flexible control over the inferencing mechanisms. Frames represent the domain-objects as well as the inter-object relationships. They include 'demons' or 'active values' for triggering actions. Rules, along with frames, are used for fault analysis. The rules can be activated either in a data-driven or a goal-driven manner. The use of frames makes rule management easier. It is felt that developing in-house shell proved advantageous, compared to using commercially available shells. Choosing the model-based approach was efficient compared to a production system architecture. Therefore, the use of hybrid representations for diagnostic applications is advocated. Based on the experience, some general recommendations for developing such systems are presented. The expert system helps novice operators to understand the process of diagnosis and achieve a significant required level of competence. The system may not achieve the required level of proficiency by itself, but it can be used to train operators to become experts. (author). 12 refs

  19. An approach to build a knowledge base for reactor accident diagnostic expert system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoshida, K.; Fujii, M.; Fujiki, K.; Yokobayashi, M.; Kohsaka, A.; Aoyagi, T.; Hirota, Y.

    1987-01-01

    In the development of a rule based expert system, one of the key issues is how to acquire knowledge and to build knowledge base (KB). On building the KB of DISKET, which is an expert system for nuclear reactor accident diagnosis developed in JAERI, several problems have been experienced as follows. To write rules is a time consuming task, and it is difficult to keep the objectivity and consistency of rules as the number of rules increase. Further, certainty factors (CFs) must be often determined according to engineering judgment, i.e., empirically or intuitively. A systematic approach was attempted to handle these difficulties and to build an objective KB efficiently. The approach described in this paper is based on the concept that a prototype KB, colloquially speaking an initial guess, should first be generated in a systematic way and then is to be modified and/or improved by human experts for practical use. Statistical methods, principally Factor Analysis, were used as the systematic way to build a prototype KB for the DISKET using a PWR plant simulator data. The source information is a number of data obtained from the simulation of transients, such as the status of components and annunciator etc., and major process parameters like pressures, temperatures and so on

  20. Developing healthcare rule-based expert systems: case study of a heart failure telemonitoring system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seto, Emily; Leonard, Kevin J; Cafazzo, Joseph A; Barnsley, Jan; Masino, Caterina; Ross, Heather J

    2012-08-01

    The use of expert systems to generate automated alerts and patient instructions based on telemonitoring data could enable increased self-care and improve clinical management. However, of great importance is the development of the rule set to ensure safe and clinically relevant alerts and instructions are sent. The purpose of this work was to develop a rule-based expert system for a heart failure mobile phone-based telemonitoring system, to evaluate the expert system, and to generalize the lessons learned from the development process for use in other healthcare applications. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 10 heart failure clinicians to inform the development of a draft heart failure rule set for alerts and patient instructions. The draft rule set was validated and refined with 9 additional interviews with heart failure clinicians. Finally, the clinical champion of the project vetted the rule set. The concerns voiced by the clinicians during the interviews were noted, and methods to mitigate these concerns were employed. The rule set was then evaluated as part of a 6-month randomized controlled trial of a mobile phone-based heart failure telemonitoring system (n=50 for each of the telemonitoring and control groups). The developed expert system generated alerts and instructions based on the patient's weight, blood pressure, heart rate, and symptoms. During the trial, 1620 alerts were generated, which led to various clinical actions including 105 medication changes/instructions. The findings from the trial indicated the rule set was associated with improved quality of life and self-care. A rule set was developed with extensive input by heart failure clinicians. The results from the trial indicated the rule set was associated with significantly increased self-care and improved the clinical management of heart failure. The developed rule set can be used as a basis for other heart failure telemonitoring systems, but should be validated and modified as

  1. Cogent Confabulation based Expert System for Segmentation and Classification of Natural Landscape Images

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    BRAOVIC, M.

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Ever since there has been an increase in the number of automatic wildfire monitoring and surveillance systems in the last few years, natural landscape images have been of great importance. In this paper we propose an expert system for fast segmentation and classification of regions on natural landscape images that is suitable for real-time applications. We focus primarily on Mediterranean landscape images since the Mediterranean area and areas with similar climate are the ones most associated with high wildfire risk. The proposed expert system is based on cogent confabulation theory and knowledge bases that contain information about local and global features, optimal color spaces suitable for classification of certain regions, and context of each class. The obtained results indicate that the proposed expert system significantly outperforms well-known classifiers that it was compared against in both accuracy and speed, and that it is effective and efficient for real-time applications. Additionally, we present a FESB MLID dataset on which we conducted our research and that we made publicly available.

  2. A simulation-based expert system for nuclear power plant diagnostics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hassberger, J.A.; Lee, J.C.

    1989-01-01

    An expert system for diagnosing operational transients in a nuclear power plant is discussed. Hypothesis and test is used as the problem-solving strategy with hypotheses generated by an expert system that monitors the plant for patterns of data symptomatic of known failure modes. Fuzzy logic is employed as the inferencing mechanism with two complementary implication schemes to handle scenarios involving competing failures. Hypothesis testing is performed. An artificial intelligence framework based on a critical functions approach is used to deal with the complexity of a nuclear plant. A prototype system for diagnosing transients in the reactor coolant system of a pressurized water reactor has been developed to test the algorithms described here. Results are presented for the diagnosis of data from the Three Mile Island Unit 2 loss-of-feedwater/small-break loss-of-collant accident

  3. Eating quality prediction of beef from Italian Simmental cattle based on experts' steak assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borgogno, Monica; Saccà, Elena; Corazzin, Mirco; Favotto, Saida; Bovolenta, Stefano; Piasentier, Edi

    2016-08-01

    The experiment aimed at defining a grading scheme for Italian Simmental (IS) beef linked to objective measure of eating quality. Four experts developed a meat quality grid based on the assessment of the steak between the 8th and 9th ribs (reference steak). The grid was tested on the reference steak of 29 IS young-bulls. Rib-eye dimension, meat colour, marbling, meat firmness and fat cover highly contributed to overall quality. Two classes of IS beef quality were identified: standard and high. The results were associated with the sensory profile of Longissimus thoracis muscle from the reference steaks performed by a trained panel. The differences in quality highlighted by experts in raw steak accounted for most of the relevant information regarding the sensory properties of cooked beef. The accuracy of predictive model was 96.6%. The developed scheme is a helpful tool for valuing the eating quality of beef. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Comparing automatically detected reflective texts with human judgements

    OpenAIRE

    Ullmann, Thomas Daniel; Wild, Fridolin; Scott, Peter

    2012-01-01

    This paper reports on the descriptive results of an experiment comparing automatically detected reflective and not-reflective texts against human judgements. Based on the theory of reflective writing assessment and their operationalisation five elements of reflection were defined. For each element of reflection a set of indicators was developed, which automatically annotate texts regarding reflection based on the parameterisation with authoritative texts. Using a large blog corpus 149 texts were retr...

  5. Larger right posterior parietal volume in action video game experts: a behavioral and voxel-based morphometry (VBM) study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanaka, Satoshi; Ikeda, Hanako; Kasahara, Kazumi; Kato, Ryo; Tsubomi, Hiroyuki; Sugawara, Sho K; Mori, Makoto; Hanakawa, Takashi; Sadato, Norihiro; Honda, Manabu; Watanabe, Katsumi

    2013-01-01

    Recent studies suggest that action video game players exhibit superior performance in visuospatial cognitive tasks compared with non-game players. However, the neural basis underlying this visuospatial cognitive performance advantage remains largely unknown. The present human behavioral and imaging study compared gray matter volume in action video game experts and non-experts using structural magnetic resonance imaging and voxel-based morphometry analysis. The results revealed significantly larger gray matter volume in the right posterior parietal cortex in experts compared with non-experts. Furthermore, the larger gray matter volume in the right posterior parietal cortex significantly correlated with individual performance in a visual working memory task in experts. These results suggest that differences in brain structure may be linked to extensive video game play, leading to superior visuospatial cognitive performance in action video game experts.

  6. Which Dimensions of Patient-Centeredness Matter? - Results of a Web-Based Expert Delphi Survey.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jördis M Zill

    Full Text Available Present models and definitions of patient-centeredness revealed a lack of conceptual clarity. Based on a prior systematic literature review, we developed an integrative model with 15 dimensions of patient-centeredness. The aims of this study were to 1 validate, and 2 prioritize these dimensions.A two-round web-based Delphi study was conducted. 297 international experts were invited to participate. In round one they were asked to 1 give an individual rating on a nine-point-scale on relevance and clarity of the dimensions, 2 add missing dimensions, and 3 prioritize the dimensions. In round two, experts received feedback about the results of round one and were asked to reflect and re-rate their own results. The cut-off for the validation of a dimension was a median < 7 on one of the criteria.105 experts participated in round one and 71 in round two. In round one, one new dimension was suggested and included for discussion in round two. In round two, this dimension did not reach sufficient ratings to be included in the model. Eleven dimensions reached a median ≥ 7 on both criteria (relevance and clarity. Four dimensions had a median < 7 on one or both criteria. The five dimensions rated as most important were: patient as a unique person, patient involvement in care, patient information, clinician-patient communication and patient empowerment.11 out of the 15 dimensions have been validated through experts' ratings. Further research on the four dimensions that received insufficient ratings is recommended. The priority order of the dimensions can help researchers and clinicians to focus on the most important dimensions of patient-centeredness. Overall, the model provides a useful framework that can be used in the development of measures, interventions, and medical education curricula, as well as the adoption of a new perspective in health policy.

  7. When are Domestic Anti-Avoidance Rules in Breach of Primary and Secondary EU Law? – Comments Based on Recent Judgements from the European Court of Justice

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bundgaard, Jakob; Schmidt, Peter Koerver; Tell, Michael

    2018-01-01

    Based on the ECJ decisions in Eqiom SAS (Case C-6/16), as well as Joined Cases Deister Holding (Case C-504/16) and Juhler Holding (Case C-613/16), the authors discuss the interplay between Member States’ domestic antiavoidance rules, the Parent-Subsidiary Directive and the basic freedoms. In addi...

  8. Application prototype of a model-based expert system to the maintenance of a MAN

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hopfmueller, Heinrich; Kehl, Walter; Schapeler, Gottfried

    1993-10-01

    This paper describes the work done and results achieved in implementing a fault management prototype for a Metropolitan Area Network (MAN) switching system, the GMAN (GMS Fault Management Prototype for a MAN). The GMAN is implemented using the Generic Maintenance System (GMS) which has been developed by the RACE project AIM (R1006). The GMS is a model based expert system toolset (`2nd generation XPS') comprising components for knowledge acquisition, knowledge representation, model based reasoning, human machine interface, and dialogue design. The GMS supports automatic fault management from receiving and treating fault events to guiding an operator through a repair procedure.

  9. Learning from the Pros: Influence of Web-Based Expert Commentary on Vicarious Learning about Financial Markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ford, Matthew W.; Kent, Daniel W.; Devoto, Steven

    2007-01-01

    Web-based financial commentary, in which experts routinely express market-related thought processes, is proposed as a means for college students to learn vicariously about financial markets. Undergraduate business school students from a regional university were exposed to expert market commentary from a single financial Web site for a 6-week…

  10. Structuring expert input for a knowledge-based approach to watershed condition assessment for the Northwest Forest Plan, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sean N. Gordon; Gallo. Kirsten

    2011-01-01

    Assessments of watershed condition for aquatic and riparian species often have to rely on expert opinion because of the complexity of establishing statistical relationships among the many factors involved. Such expert-based assessments can be difficult to document and apply consistently over time and space. We describe and reflect on the process of developing a...

  11. Measuring novices' field mapping abilities using an in-class exercise based on expert task analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caulkins, J. L.

    2010-12-01

    We are interested in developing a model of expert-like behavior for improving the teaching methods of undergraduate field geology. Our aim is to assist students in mastering the process of field mapping more efficiently and effectively and to improve their ability to think creatively in the field. To examine expert-mapping behavior, a cognitive task analysis was conducted with expert geologic mappers in an attempt to define the process of geologic mapping (i.e. to understand how experts carry out geological mapping). The task analysis indicates that expert mappers have a wealth of geologic scenarios at their disposal that they compare against examples seen in the field, experiences that most undergraduate mappers will not have had. While presenting students with many geological examples in class may increase their understanding of geologic processes, novices still struggle when presented with a novel field situation. Based on the task analysis, a short (45-minute) paper-map-based exercise was designed and tested with 14 pairs of 3rd year geology students. The exercise asks students to generate probable geologic models based on a series of four (4) data sets. Each data set represents a day’s worth of data; after the first “day,” new sheets simply include current and previously collected data (e.g. “Day 2” data set includes data from “Day 1” plus the new “Day 2” data). As the geologic complexity increases, students must adapt, reject or generate new geologic models in order to fit the growing data set. Preliminary results of the exercise indicate that students who produced more probable geologic models, and produced higher ratios of probable to improbable models, tended to go on to do better on the mapping exercises at the 3rd year field school. These results suggest that those students with more cognitively available geologic models may be more able to use these models in field settings than those who are unable to draw on these models for whatever

  12. Suspension of Phenomenological Judgement of Scientific Naivety

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Janko M. Lozar

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The article addresses the negative judgements on natural sciences, however persistent and frequent they may be, found scattered in the philosophical texts of the two founding fathers of phenomenology, Edmund Husserl and Martin Heidegger. It first presents these harsh views and then, by assuming the phenomenological method, advocated by both philosophers, endeavours to suspend these judgements in favour of a phenomenologically more adequate description of the scientific comportment, trying to do justice to its non-philosophical excellence. The basic claim of the treatise is that Husserl’s and Heidegger’s criticisms should only be understood in the defensive sense of procuring a firm and safe ground for theoretical comportment, bios 'theoretikos'. Such an approach, however, begs for a phenomenological description of the intrinsic excellence of science, which might be phenomenologically most accurately understood as most rigorous practical comportment, as 'bios praktikos'.

  13. Implementasi Rule Based Expert Systems untuk Realtime Monitoring Penyelesaian Perkara Pidana Menggunakan Teknologi Radio Frequency Identification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mar Fuah

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available One of the problems in the criminal case completions is that the difficulty of making decision to estimate when the settlement of the case file will be fulfilled. It is caused by the number of case files handled and detention time changing. Therefore, the fast and accurate information is needed. The research aims to develop a monitoring system tracking and tracking of scheduling rules using Rule Based Expert Systems method with 17 rules, and supported by Radio Frequency Identification technology (RFID in the form of computer applications. Based on the output of the system, an analysis is performed in the criminal case settlement process with a set of IF-THEN rules. The RFID reader read the data of case files through radio wave signals emitted by the antenna toward active-Tag attached in the criminal case file. The system is designed to monitor the tracking and tracing of RFID-based scheduling rules in realtime way that was built in the form of computer application in accordance with the system design. This study results in no failure in reading active tags by the RFID reader to detect criminal case files that had been examined. There were many case files handled in three different location, they were the constabulary, prosecutor, and judges of district court and RFID was able to identify them simultaneously. So, RFID supports the implementation of Rule Based Expert Systems very much for realtime monitoring in criminal case accomplishment.

  14. Identifying influenza-like illness presentation from unstructured general practice clinical narrative using a text classifier rule-based expert system versus a clinical expert.

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacRae, Jayden; Love, Tom; Baker, Michael G; Dowell, Anthony; Carnachan, Matthew; Stubbe, Maria; McBain, Lynn

    2015-10-06

    We designed and validated a rule-based expert system to identify influenza like illness (ILI) from routinely recorded general practice clinical narrative to aid a larger retrospective research study into the impact of the 2009 influenza pandemic in New Zealand. Rules were assessed using pattern matching heuristics on routine clinical narrative. The system was trained using data from 623 clinical encounters and validated using a clinical expert as a gold standard against a mutually exclusive set of 901 records. We calculated a 98.2 % specificity and 90.2 % sensitivity across an ILI incidence of 12.4 % measured against clinical expert classification. Peak problem list identification of ILI by clinical coding in any month was 9.2 % of all detected ILI presentations. Our system addressed an unusual problem domain for clinical narrative classification; using notational, unstructured, clinician entered information in a community care setting. It performed well compared with other approaches and domains. It has potential applications in real-time surveillance of disease, and in assisted problem list coding for clinicians. Our system identified ILI presentation with sufficient accuracy for use at a population level in the wider research study. The peak coding of 9.2 % illustrated the need for automated coding of unstructured narrative in our study.

  15. Development of a QFD-based expert system for CNC turning centre selection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prasad, Kanika; Chakraborty, Shankar

    2015-12-01

    Computer numerical control (CNC) machine tools are automated devices capable of generating complicated and intricate product shapes in shorter time. Selection of the best CNC machine tool is a critical, complex and time-consuming task due to availability of a wide range of alternatives and conflicting nature of several evaluation criteria. Although, the past researchers had attempted to select the appropriate machining centres using different knowledge-based systems, mathematical models and multi-criteria decision-making methods, none of those approaches has given due importance to the voice of customers. The aforesaid limitation can be overcome using quality function deployment (QFD) technique, which is a systematic approach for integrating customers' needs and designing the product to meet those needs first time and every time. In this paper, the adopted QFD-based methodology helps in selecting CNC turning centres for a manufacturing organization, providing due importance to the voice of customers to meet their requirements. An expert system based on QFD technique is developed in Visual BASIC 6.0 to automate the CNC turning centre selection procedure for different production plans. Three illustrative examples are demonstrated to explain the real-time applicability of the developed expert system.

  16. Probabilistic safety assessment based expert systems in support of dynamic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Varde, P.V.; Sharma, U.L.; Marik, S.K.; Raina, V.K.; Tikku, A.C.

    2006-01-01

    Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) studies are being performed, world over as part of integrated risk assessment for Nuclear Power Plants and in many cases PSA insight is utilized in support of decision making. Though the modern plants are built with inherent safety provisions, particularly to reduce the supervisory requirements during initial period into the accident, it is always desired to develop an efficient user friendly real-time operator advisory system for handling of plant transients/emergencies which would be of immense benefit for the enhancement of operational safety of the plant. This paper discusses an integrated approach for the development of operator support system. In this approach, PSA methodology and the insight obtained from PSA has been utilized for development of knowledge based or rule based experts system. While Artificial Neural Network (ANN) approach has been employed for transient identification, rule-base expert system shell environment was used for the development of diagnostic module in this system. Attempt has been made to demonstrate that this approach offers an efficient framework for addressing requirements related to handling of real-time/dynamic scenario. (author)

  17. Expert beliefs regarding novel lipid-based approaches to pediatric intestinal failure-associated liver disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diamond, Ivan R; Grant, Robert C; Feldman, Brian M; Tomlinson, George A; Pencharz, Paul B; Ling, Simon C; Moore, Aideen M; Wales, Paul W

    2014-08-01

    To determine expert beliefs regarding the probability of intestinal failure-associated liver disease (IFALD) with novel lipid-based approaches (lipid minimization/ω-3 lipids) in managing IFALD to facilitate Bayesian analyses of clinical trials of these therapies. Structured interviews were conducted using a validated approach to belief elicitation with 60 intestinal failure (IF) experts from across North America. Participants were asked to estimate, in an average population of infants referred for management of IF with early IFALD, the probability of advanced IFALD at 3 months following referral in each of 3 scenarios: (1) conventional lipid, (2) ω-3 lipids, and (3) lipid minimization. Probability distributions of the risk of advanced IFALD with each strategy were developed. Distributions of the elicited treatment effect for the novel approaches, relative to conventional lipid, were calculated. Median duration of experience of participants managing patients with IF was 8.5 (range, 2-35) years. The median probability of advanced IFALD using conventional lipid was 32.5%; ω-3 lipids, 17.5%; and lipid minimization, 13%. The median of the elicited treatment effects relative to conventional lipid was a relative risk of 0.53 for the ω-3 lipid and 0.45 for lipid minimization. There was consistent expert opinion that the novel lipid-based approaches are superior to conventional therapy, with similar estimates of treatment efficacy for the 2 approaches. The distributions of the elicited treatment effects can be used as prior distributions in Bayesian analyses of clinical trials of these novel strategies. © 2013 American Society for Parenteral and Enteral Nutrition.

  18. Simulation-based expert system for nuclear reactor control and diagnostics. Progress report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, J.C.; Martin, W.R.

    1986-01-01

    This research concerns the development of artificial intelligence (AI) techniques suitable for application to the diagnostics and control of nuclear power plant systems. The overall objective of the current effort is to build a prototype simulation-based expert system for diagnosing accidents in nuclear reactors. The system is being designed to analyze plant data heuristically using fuzzy logic to form a set of hypotheses about a particular transient. Hypothesis testing, fault magnitude estimation and transient analysis is performed using simulation programs to model plant behavior. An adaptive learning technique has been developed for achieving accurate simulations of plant dynamics using low-order physical models of plant components. The results of the diagnostics and simulation analysis of the plant transient are to be analyzed by an expert system for final diagnoses and control guidance. To date, significant progress has been made toward achieving the primary goals of this project. Based on a critical safety functions approach, an overall design for the nuclear plant expert system has been developed. The methodology for performing diagnostic reasoning on plant signals has been developed and the algorithms implemented and tested. A methodology for utilizing the information contained in the physical models of plant components has also been developed. This work included the derivation of a unique Kalman filtering algorithm for using power plant data to systematically improve on-line simulations through the judicious adjustment of key model parameters. A few simulation models of key plant components have been developed and implemented to demonstrate the method on a realistic accident scenario. The chosen transient is a loss of feed flow exasperated by a stuck open relief valve, similar to the initiating event of the Three Mile Island Unit 2 accident in 1979

  19. Automated Individual Prescription of Exercise with an XML-based Expert System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jang, S; Park, S R; Jang, Y; Park, J; Yoon, Y; Park, S

    2005-01-01

    Continuously motivating people to exercise regularly is more important than finding a barriers such as lack of time, cost of equipment or gym membership, lack of nearby facilities and poor weather or night-time lighting. Our proposed system presents practicable methods of motivation through a web-based exercise prescription service. Users are instructed to exercise according to their physical ability by means of an automated individual prescription of exercise checked and approved by a personal trainer or exercise specialist after being tested with the HIMS, fitness assessment system. Furthermore, utilizing BIOFIT exercise prescriptions scheduled by an expert system can help users exercise systematically. Automated individual prescriptions are built in XML based documents because the data needs to be flexible, expansible and convertible structures to process diverse exercise templates. Web-based exercise prescription service makes users stay interested in exercise even if they live in many different environments.

  20. A System for Ontology-Based Sharing of Expert Knowledge in Sustainability Science

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steven Kraines

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Work towards creation of a knowledge sharing system for sustainability science through the application of semantic data modeling is described. An ontology grounded in description logics was developed based on the ISO 15926 data model to describe three types of sustainability science conceptualizations: situational knowledge, analytic methods, and scenario frameworks. Semantic statements were then created using this ontology to describe expert knowledge expressed in research proposals and papers related to sustainability science and in scenarios for achieving sustainable societies. Semantic matching based on logic and rule-based inference was used to quantify the conceptual overlap of semantic statements, which shows the semantic similarity of topics studied by different researchers in sustainability science, similarities that might be unknown to the researchers themselves.

  1. An American knowledge base in England - Alternate implementations of an expert system flight status monitor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butler, G. F.; Graves, A. T.; Disbrow, J. D.; Duke, E. L.

    1989-01-01

    A joint activity between the Dryden Flight Research Facility of the NASA Ames Research Center (Ames-Dryden) and the Royal Aerospace Establishment (RAE) on knowledge-based systems has been agreed. Under the agreement, a flight status monitor knowledge base developed at Ames-Dryden has been implemented using the real-time AI (artificial intelligence) toolkit MUSE, which was developed in the UK. Here, the background to the cooperation is described and the details of the flight status monitor and a prototype MUSE implementation are presented. It is noted that the capabilities of the expert-system flight status monitor to monitor data downlinked from the flight test aircraft and to generate information on the state and health of the system for the test engineers provides increased safety during flight testing of new systems. Furthermore, the expert-system flight status monitor provides the systems engineers with ready access to the large amount of information required to describe a complex aircraft system.

  2. Assessing socioeconomic vulnerability to dengue fever in Cali, Colombia: statistical vs expert-based modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Background As a result of changes in climatic conditions and greater resistance to insecticides, many regions across the globe, including Colombia, have been facing a resurgence of vector-borne diseases, and dengue fever in particular. Timely information on both (1) the spatial distribution of the disease, and (2) prevailing vulnerabilities of the population are needed to adequately plan targeted preventive intervention. We propose a methodology for the spatial assessment of current socioeconomic vulnerabilities to dengue fever in Cali, a tropical urban environment of Colombia. Methods Based on a set of socioeconomic and demographic indicators derived from census data and ancillary geospatial datasets, we develop a spatial approach for both expert-based and purely statistical-based modeling of current vulnerability levels across 340 neighborhoods of the city using a Geographic Information System (GIS). The results of both approaches are comparatively evaluated by means of spatial statistics. A web-based approach is proposed to facilitate the visualization and the dissemination of the output vulnerability index to the community. Results The statistical and the expert-based modeling approach exhibit a high concordance, globally, and spatially. The expert-based approach indicates a slightly higher vulnerability mean (0.53) and vulnerability median (0.56) across all neighborhoods, compared to the purely statistical approach (mean = 0.48; median = 0.49). Both approaches reveal that high values of vulnerability tend to cluster in the eastern, north-eastern, and western part of the city. These are poor neighborhoods with high percentages of young (i.e., < 15 years) and illiterate residents, as well as a high proportion of individuals being either unemployed or doing housework. Conclusions Both modeling approaches reveal similar outputs, indicating that in the absence of local expertise, statistical approaches could be used, with caution. By decomposing identified

  3. Assessing socioeconomic vulnerability to dengue fever in Cali, Colombia: statistical vs expert-based modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hagenlocher, Michael; Delmelle, Eric; Casas, Irene; Kienberger, Stefan

    2013-08-14

    As a result of changes in climatic conditions and greater resistance to insecticides, many regions across the globe, including Colombia, have been facing a resurgence of vector-borne diseases, and dengue fever in particular. Timely information on both (1) the spatial distribution of the disease, and (2) prevailing vulnerabilities of the population are needed to adequately plan targeted preventive intervention. We propose a methodology for the spatial assessment of current socioeconomic vulnerabilities to dengue fever in Cali, a tropical urban environment of Colombia. Based on a set of socioeconomic and demographic indicators derived from census data and ancillary geospatial datasets, we develop a spatial approach for both expert-based and purely statistical-based modeling of current vulnerability levels across 340 neighborhoods of the city using a Geographic Information System (GIS). The results of both approaches are comparatively evaluated by means of spatial statistics. A web-based approach is proposed to facilitate the visualization and the dissemination of the output vulnerability index to the community. The statistical and the expert-based modeling approach exhibit a high concordance, globally, and spatially. The expert-based approach indicates a slightly higher vulnerability mean (0.53) and vulnerability median (0.56) across all neighborhoods, compared to the purely statistical approach (mean = 0.48; median = 0.49). Both approaches reveal that high values of vulnerability tend to cluster in the eastern, north-eastern, and western part of the city. These are poor neighborhoods with high percentages of young (i.e., local expertise, statistical approaches could be used, with caution. By decomposing identified vulnerability "hotspots" into their underlying factors, our approach provides valuable information on both (1) the location of neighborhoods, and (2) vulnerability factors that should be given priority in the context of targeted intervention

  4. Image-based teleconsultation using smartphones or tablets: qualitative assessment of medical experts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boissin, Constance; Blom, Lisa; Wallis, Lee; Laflamme, Lucie

    2017-02-01

    Mobile health has promising potential in improving healthcare delivery by facilitating access to expert advice. Enabling experts to review images on their smartphone or tablet may save valuable time. This study aims at assessing whether images viewed by medical specialists on handheld devices such as smartphones and tablets are perceived to be of comparable quality as when viewed on a computer screen. This was a prospective study comparing the perceived quality of 18 images on three different display devices (smartphone, tablet and computer) by 27 participants (4 burn surgeons and 23 emergency medicine specialists). The images, presented in random order, covered clinical (dermatological conditions, burns, ECGs and X-rays) and non-clinical subjects and their perceived quality was assessed using a 7-point Likert scale. Differences in devices' quality ratings were analysed using linear regression models for clustered data adjusting for image type and participants' characteristics (age, gender and medical specialty). Overall, the images were rated good or very good in most instances and more so for the smartphone (83.1%, mean score 5.7) and tablet (78.2%, mean 5.5) than for a standard computer (70.6%, mean 5.2). Both handheld devices had significantly higher ratings than the computer screen, even after controlling for image type and participants' characteristics. Nearly all experts expressed that they would be comfortable using smartphones (n=25) or tablets (n=26) for image-based teleconsultation. This study suggests that handheld devices could be a substitute for computer screens for teleconsultation by physicians working in emergency settings. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

  5. Clinical judgement in the era of big data and predictive analytics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chin-Yee, Benjamin; Upshur, Ross

    2017-12-13

    Clinical judgement is a central and longstanding issue in the philosophy of medicine which has generated significant interest over the past few decades. In this article, we explore different approaches to clinical judgement articulated in the literature, focusing in particular on data-driven, mathematical approaches which we contrast with narrative, virtue-based approaches to clinical reasoning. We discuss the tension between these different clinical epistemologies and further explore the implications of big data and machine learning for a philosophy of clinical judgement. We argue for a pluralistic, integrative approach, and demonstrate how narrative, virtue-based clinical reasoning will remain indispensable in an era of big data and predictive analytics. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  6. A fuzzy expert system to Trust-Based Access Control in crowdsourcing environments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olusegun Folorunso

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Crowdsourcing has been widely accepted across a broad range of application areas. In crowdsourcing environments, the possibility of performing human computation is characterized with risks due to the openness of their web-based platforms where each crowd worker joins and participates in the process at any time, causing serious effect on the quality of its computation. In this paper, a combination of Trust-Based Access Control (TBAC strategy and fuzzy-expert systems was used to enhance the quality of human computation in crowdsourcing environment. A TBAC-fuzzy algorithm was developed and implemented using MATLAB 7.6.0 to compute trust value (Tvalue, priority value as evaluated by fuzzy inference system (FIS and finally generate access decision to each crowd-worker. In conclusion, the use of TBAC is feasible in improving quality of human computation in crowdsourcing environments.

  7. A Quality Function Deployment-Based Expert System for Cotton Fibre Selection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chakraborty, Shankar; Prasad, Kanika

    2018-01-01

    The textile industries have seen resurgence in customers' demand for quality products during the preceding few years. This product range is extremely varied, with hand-spun and hand-woven products at one end of the spectrum, while products manufactured from the capital intensive sophisticated machineries at the other end. Since, cotton fibres are predominantly employed as the raw material for manufacturing these products, their proper selection is crucial for sustainable development of the textile/spinning industries. However, availability of numerous cotton fibre alternatives with various physical properties makes this selection process unwieldy and time consuming. Thus, there is need for a structured approach that can incorporate customers' demand into the selection process. This paper demonstrates the application of a structured and logical procedure of selecting the best cotton fibre type to fulfill a set of specified end product requirements through design and development of a quality function deployment (QFD)-based expert system. The QFD technique is employed here to provide due importance to the customers' spoken and unspoken needs, and subsequently calculate the priority weights of the considered cotton fibre properties. Two real time illustrative examples are presented to explicate the applicability and potentiality of the developed expert system to resolve cotton fibre selection problems.

  8. A QSTR-based Expert System to Predict Sweetness of Molecules

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rojas, Cristian; Todeschini, Roberto; Ballabio, Davide; Mauri, Andrea; Consonni, Viviana; Tripaldi, Piercosimo; Grisoni, Francesca

    2017-07-01

    This work describes a novel approach based on advanced molecular similarity to predict the sweetness of chemicals. The proposed Quantitative Structure-Taste Relationship (QSTR) model is an expert system developed keeping in mind the five principles defined by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development for the validation of (Q)SARs. The 649 sweet and non-sweet molecules were described by both conformation-independent extended-connectivity fingerprints (ECFPs) and molecular descriptors. In particular, the molecular similarity in the ECFPs space showed a clear association with molecular taste and it was exploited for model development. Molecules laying in the subspaces where the taste assignation was more difficult were modelled trough a consensus between linear and local approaches (Partial Least Squares-Discriminant Analysis and N-nearest-neighbor classifier). The expert system, which was thoroughly validated through a Monte Carlo procedure and an external set, gave satisfactory results in comparison with the state-of-the-art models. Moreover, the QSTR model can be leveraged into a greater understanding of the relationship between molecular structure and sweetness, and into the design of novel sweeteners.

  9. DG Allocation Based on Reliability, Losses and Voltage Sag Considerations: an expert system approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sahar Abdel Moneim Moussa

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Expert System (ES as a branch of Artificial Intelligence (AI methodology can potentially help in solving complicated power system problems. This may be more appropriate methodology than conventional optimization techniques when contradiction between objectives appears in reaching the optimum solution. When this contradiction is the hindrance in reaching the required system operation through the application of traditional methods ES can give a hand in such case. In this paper, the  knowledge- based ES technique is proposed to reach near-optimum solution which is further directed to the optimum solution through particle swarm optimization (PSO technique. This idea is known as Hybrid-Expert-System (HES. The proposed idea is used in getting the optimum allocation of a number of distributed generation (DG units on Distribution System (DS busbars taking into consideration three issues; reliability, voltage sag, and line losses. Optimality is assessed on the economic basis by calculating money benefits (or losses resulting from DG addition considering the three aforementioned issues. The effectiveness of the proposed technique is ascertained through example.

  10. Accident diagnosis system based on real-time decision tree expert system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicolau, Andressa dos S.; Augusto, João P. da S. C.; Schirru, Roberto

    2017-06-01

    Safety is one of the most studied topics when referring to power stations. For that reason, sensors and alarms develop an important role in environmental and human protection. When abnormal event happens, it triggers a chain of alarms that must be, somehow, checked by the control room operators. In this case, diagnosis support system can help operators to accurately identify the possible root-cause of the problem in short time. In this article, we present a computational model of a generic diagnose support system based on artificial intelligence, that was applied on the dataset of two real power stations: Angra1 Nuclear Power Plant and Santo Antônio Hydroelectric Plant. The proposed system processes all the information logged in the sequence of events before a shutdown signal using the expert's knowledge inputted into an expert system indicating the chain of events, from the shutdown signal to its root-cause. The results of both applications showed that the support system is a potential tool to help the control room operators identify abnormal events, as accidents and consequently increase the safety.

  11. A semi-linguistic approach based on fuzzy set theory: application to expert judgments aggregation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ghyym, Seong Ho

    1998-01-01

    In the present work, a semi-linguistic fuzzy algorithm is proposed to obtain the fuzzy weighting values for multi-criterion, multi-alternative performance evaluation problem, with application to the aggregated estimate in the aggregation process of multi-expert judgments. The algorithm framework proposed is composed of the hierarchical structure, the semi-linguistic approach, the fuzzy R-L type integral value, and the total risk attitude index. In this work, extending the Chang/Chen method for triangular fuzzy numbers, the total risk attitude index is devised for a trapezoidal fuzzy number system. To illustrate the application of the algorithm proposed, a case problem available in literature is studied in connection to the weighting value evaluation of three-alternative (i.e., the aggregation of three-expert judgments) under seven-criterion. The evaluation results such as overall utility value, aggregation weighting value, and aggregated estimate obtained using the present fuzzy model are compared with those for other fuzzy models based on the Kim/Park method, the Liou/Wang method, and the Chang/Chen method

  12. A QSTR-Based Expert System to Predict Sweetness of Molecules

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristian Rojas

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available This work describes a novel approach based on advanced molecular similarity to predict the sweetness of chemicals. The proposed Quantitative Structure-Taste Relationship (QSTR model is an expert system developed keeping in mind the five principles defined by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD for the validation of (QSARs. The 649 sweet and non-sweet molecules were described by both conformation-independent extended-connectivity fingerprints (ECFPs and molecular descriptors. In particular, the molecular similarity in the ECFPs space showed a clear association with molecular taste and it was exploited for model development. Molecules laying in the subspaces where the taste assignation was more difficult were modeled trough a consensus between linear and local approaches (Partial Least Squares-Discriminant Analysis and N-nearest-neighbor classifier. The expert system, which was thoroughly validated through a Monte Carlo procedure and an external set, gave satisfactory results in comparison with the state-of-the-art models. Moreover, the QSTR model can be leveraged into a greater understanding of the relationship between molecular structure and sweetness, and into the design of novel sweeteners.

  13. [Psychosocial Risk Evaluation in the Workplace: Expert-based Development of a Checklist for Occupational Physicians].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weigl, M; Müller, A; Angerer, P; Petru, R

    2016-03-01

    The implementation of psychosocial risk assessment at the workplace often fails in practice. One reason is the lack of competence of those who are in charge of the process. We present a checklist for the effective implementation of psychosocial risk assessment at workplace. This tool shall support occupational physicians in the preparation, planning and implementation of a psychosocial risks assessment process. Based on a stepwise development and validation process, specific steps and factors for the successful implementation were identified qualitatively with 15 occupational physicians and experts. This was conducted in a 2-stage Delphi study. In the following, the identified steps and factors were transferred into a checklist. Subsequently, the checklist was evaluated in a focus group of occupational physicians (user evaluation). Thereafter, the contents were subjected to an expert evaluation. Our checklist for the effective implementation of the process of psychosocial risk management in the workplace aims to strengthen the competence of occupational physicians, especially in the implementation of risk assessments in small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

  14. ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK BASED METHOD OF ASSESSMENT OF STUDENTS` FOREIGN LANGUAGE COMPETENCE BY THE GROUP OF EXPERTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olha V. Zastelo

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available In this article the method of the integral assessment of the level of students` foreign language communicative competence by the group of experts through the complex test in a foreign language is considered. The use of mathematical methods and modern specialized software during complex testing of students significantly improves the expert methods, particularly in the direction of increasing the reliability of the assessment. Capitalizing analytical software environment realizes the simulation of non-linear generalizations based on artificial neural networks, which increases the accuracy of the estimate and allows further efficient use of the competent experts` experience gained in the model.

  15. Research on erroneous judgement and operation of human at emergency

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Li; Huang Shudong; Li Xianyi; Chen Jianhua

    2001-01-01

    The behavior characteristic of human at emergency is analysed, and the root causes and the influencing factors are discussed, which result in erroneous judgement and operation. With experiment on erroneous judgement and operation of human at emergency, the error characteristic values are obtained, then the mathematical models are established. Comparing to foreign data, it is known that there are no marked differences between Chinese and foreigners in percent of erroneous judgement and operation at emergency

  16. Evaluating future detriment from radioactive discharges Judgements and implications for optimisation of protection

    CERN Document Server

    Fleishman, A B

    1982-01-01

    For long-lived nuclides released into the environment, it is possible to calculate dose commitments extending over thousands or millions of years. The inclusion of this detriment to future populations in present day decision-making is not a technical matter, but represents an area where judgement must be applied. This report shows how different judgements on the relative valuation of future doses can have significant implications for the management of radioactive effluents. A quantitative framework for the expression of such judgements is proposed for optimisation studies, to clarify for decision-makers these implications in the assessment of alternative management options. This is based on the economic principles of discounting, but is related to the use of incomplete collective dose commitments (truncated in time), and includes a zero discount rate which assigns the same weight to doses whenever received. The framework is applied to a series of potential management options for the control of carbon-14, kryp...

  17. Method for distributed agent-based non-expert simulation of manufacturing process behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ivezic, Nenad; Potok, Thomas E.

    2004-11-30

    A method for distributed agent based non-expert simulation of manufacturing process behavior on a single-processor computer comprises the steps of: object modeling a manufacturing technique having a plurality of processes; associating a distributed agent with each the process; and, programming each the agent to respond to discrete events corresponding to the manufacturing technique, wherein each discrete event triggers a programmed response. The method can further comprise the step of transmitting the discrete events to each agent in a message loop. In addition, the programming step comprises the step of conditioning each agent to respond to a discrete event selected from the group consisting of a clock tick message, a resources received message, and a request for output production message.

  18. Strategy for Developing Expert-System-Based Internet Protocols (TCP/IP)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ivancic, William D.

    1997-01-01

    The Satellite Networks and Architectures Branch of NASA's Lewis Research is addressing the issue of seamless interoperability of satellite networks with terrestrial networks. One of the major issues is improving reliable transmission protocols such as TCP over long latency and error-prone links. Many tuning parameters are available to enhance the performance of TCP including segment size, timers and window sizes. There are also numerous congestion avoidance algorithms such as slow start, selective retransmission and selective acknowledgment that are utilized to improve performance. This paper provides a strategy to characterize the performance of TCP relative to various parameter settings in a variety of network environments (i.e. LAN, WAN, wireless, satellite, and IP over ATM). This information can then be utilized to develop expert-system-based Internet protocols.

  19. A Belief Rule-Based Expert System to Assess Bronchiolitis Suspicion from Signs and Symptoms Under Uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karim, Rezuan; Hossain, Mohammad Shahadat; Khalid, Md. Saifuddin

    2017-01-01

    be measured with cent percent certainty, resulting in inaccuracy in determining the occurrence of Bronchiolitis. Therefore, this paper presents the development of a Belief Rule-Based Expert System (BRBES) to assess the suspicion of Bronchiolitis by using signs and symptoms under uncertainty. The recently...... developed generic belief rule-based inference methodology by using evidential reasoning (RIMER) acts as the inference engine of this BRBES while belief rule base as the knowledge representation schema. The knowledge base of the system is constructed by using real patient data and expert opinion from...

  20. Rule base system in developing groundwater pollution expert system: predicting model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mongkon Ta-oun; Mohamed Daud; Mohd Zohadie Bardaie; Shamshuddin Jusop

    2000-01-01

    New techniques are now available for use in the protection of the environment. One of these techniques is the use of expert system for prediction groundwater pollution potential. Groundwater Pollution Expert system (GWPES) rules are a collection of principles and procedures used to know the comprehension of groundwater pollution prediction. The rules of groundwater pollution expert system in the form of questions, choice, radio-box, slide rule, button or frame are translated in to IF-THEN rule. The rules including of variables, types, domains and descriptions were used by the function of wxCLIPS (C Language Integrate Production System) expert system shell. (author)

  1. 39 VetoMed : un système expert à base d'icônes pour la médecine ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    PR BOKO

    Mots-clés: système expert, générateur de systèmes expert, base de connaissances, médecine traditionnelle vétérinaire, plantes médicinales, interface iconique, tradipraticien. Abstract. VetoMed : An icon-based expert system for Traditional Veterinary Medicine. In this paper we propose an expert system in which, icons are ...

  2. Perancangan Sistem Monitoring Penyelesaian Berkas Pidana Dengan Metode Rule Based Expert Systems dan Teknologi Radio Frequency Identification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    mar fuah

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The process of criminal cases settlement is based on the regulation of time limit on trial. It is difficult to see the each stage of process because of the number of case files handled. To know the status of settlement, it needs monitoring system of RFID technology built by design to a model of Rule Based Expert Systems. It facilitates the process of data files so it can produce the right, quick and accurate report. The priority of criminal case files is based on the level of completion difficulty while the tracking involves 3 locations: police, public prosecutor and district court. Rule Based Expert System method works following an expert's knowledge in solving a problem. The design that has been made is capable of being implemented and according to the user’s needs. It helps to quickly generate the right information of criminal case settling time process.

  3. Spectral information interpretation of X-ray analysis based on expert system approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Drakunov, Yu.M.; Lezin, A.N.; Pukha, N.P.; Silachev, I.Yu.

    2000-01-01

    An expert subprogram for automated identification for element composition of the samples of different nature according to the result of energy-dispersive X-ray fluorescence analysis is elaborated, The flowchart of the subprogram is presented, brief description of expert system structure and its algorithm is given. (author)

  4. Mouth-clicks used by blind expert human echolocators - signal description and model based signal synthesis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lore Thaler

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Echolocation is the ability to use sound-echoes to infer spatial information about the environment. Some blind people have developed extraordinary proficiency in echolocation using mouth-clicks. The first step of human biosonar is the transmission (mouth click and subsequent reception of the resultant sound through the ear. Existing head-related transfer function (HRTF data bases provide descriptions of reception of the resultant sound. For the current report, we collected a large database of click emissions with three blind people expertly trained in echolocation, which allowed us to perform unprecedented analyses. Specifically, the current report provides the first ever description of the spatial distribution (i.e. beam pattern of human expert echolocation transmissions, as well as spectro-temporal descriptions at a level of detail not available before. Our data show that transmission levels are fairly constant within a 60° cone emanating from the mouth, but levels drop gradually at further angles, more than for speech. In terms of spectro-temporal features, our data show that emissions are consistently very brief (~3ms duration with peak frequencies 2-4kHz, but with energy also at 10kHz. This differs from previous reports of durations 3-15ms and peak frequencies 2-8kHz, which were based on less detailed measurements. Based on our measurements we propose to model transmissions as sum of monotones modulated by a decaying exponential, with angular attenuation by a modified cardioid. We provide model parameters for each echolocator. These results are a step towards developing computational models of human biosonar. For example, in bats, spatial and spectro-temporal features of emissions have been used to derive and test model based hypotheses about behaviour. The data we present here suggest similar research opportunities within the context of human echolocation. Relatedly, the data are a basis to develop synthetic models of human echolocation

  5. Evaluation of failures in mechanical crankshafts of automobile based on expert opinion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Kareem

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available In this study, mechanical crankshaft failures for automobiles are evaluated based on experts’ opinion. This was done using data obtained using techniques based on oral interviews and questionnaire administration on mechanical failure of crankshafts from the experts working in the areas of automobile maintenance and crankshafts reconditioning. The data collected were analyzed using statistical methods based on probability. With this technique, probability of failure for each category of automobiles namely private, commercial cars and buses were evaluated. The results obtained show that private cars had lowest failure rate at the initial stage while commercial buses had the highest failure rate. At later periods all categories of automobile crankshafts considered had their failure rates converged steadily with stable reliability. Application of 6-sigma continuous improvement tool to the process indicated a further reliability improvement through improved oil lubrication system, especially in the thrust bearing. This showed that increased enlightenment campaign among the various stakeholders in automobile industries will improve on the choice of reliable mechanical crankshafts.

  6. Evidence - based pharmacological treatment of atopic dermatitis: An expert opinion and new expectations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arnold P Oranje

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Atopic dermatitis (AD is one of the most common skin diseases with a complex multifactorial background. The clinical presentation, the aggravating factors and the complications vary according to the age of the patients. Most cases, approximately 60-80%, present for the 1 st time before the age of 12 months. Adult-onset AD has been observed as a special variant. Pruritus is the worst sign of AD, which also often indicates an exacerbation and is considered to be the most annoying symptom of AD. Treatment is preferably started based on the severity of AD. In only 10% of the cases, AD is so severe that systemic treatment is necessary. Systemic treatment including topical wet-wrap treatment is indicated in the worst and recalcitrant cases of AD. Systemic treatment of AD is discussed with regards to the evidence-based efficacy and safety aspects. I prefer wet-wraps as a crisis intervention in severe childhood cases, whereas UV and systemic treatments are the choices in patients older than 10 years. Probiotics are not useful in the treatment. If they have any effect at all it may only be in food-allergic children with AD. Finally, anti-histamines are not effective against pruritus in AD. They are only effective against urticarial flares and in cases with food-allergy. This article consists of an expert opinion on evidence-based pharmacological treatment of AD, but it is not a systemic review.

  7. Expert systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haldy, P.A.

    1988-01-01

    The definitions of the terms 'artificial intelligence' and 'expert systems', the methodology, areas of employment and limits of expert systems are discussed. The operation of an expert system is described, especially the presentation and organization of knowledge as well as interference and control. Methods and tools for expert system development are presented and their application in nuclear energy are briefly addressed. 7 figs., 2 tabs., 6 refs

  8. Freud reconsidered: bisexuality, homosexuality, and moral judgement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murphy, T F

    This article examines methodological problems and unacknowledged moral judgements in Freud's theory of homosexuality. Freud raises the issue of bisexuality in connection with the origins of homosexuality. When critically examined, the theory of bisexuality reduces to a theory of the capacity to be attracted to either females or males, and in that sense explains little about the origin of exclusive homosexual orientation. Freud's further investigations into the origin of homosexuality, strictly speaking, do not provide a clear explanation of sexual exclusivity. Finally, it is argued that Freud's moral assumptions color the nature of his conclusions. At the very least, without morally justifying his procedure, he transforms the course of psychosexual development as determined by psychoanalysis into a moral imperative against which homosexuality is judged a fixated and immature state.

  9. Getting expert systems off the ground: Lessons learned from integrating model-based diagnostics with prototype flight hardware

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephan, Amy; Erikson, Carol A.

    1991-11-01

    As an initial attempt to introduce expert system technology into an onboard environment, a model based diagnostic system using the TRW MARPLE software tool was integrated with prototype flight hardware and its corresponding control software. Because this experiment was designed primarily to test the effectiveness of the model based reasoning technique used, the expert system ran on a separate hardware platform, and interactions between the control software and the model based diagnostics were limited. While this project met its objective of showing that model based reasoning can effectively isolate failures in flight hardware, it also identified the need for an integrated development path for expert system and control software for onboard applications. In developing expert systems that are ready for flight, artificial intelligence techniques must be evaluated to determine whether they offer a real advantage onboard, identify which diagnostic functions should be performed by the expert systems and which are better left to the procedural software, and work closely with both the hardware and the software developers from the beginning of a project to produce a well designed and thoroughly integrated application.

  10. Implications of social judgement theory for persuasive advertising ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Thus, the researchers embarked on a self affirmative discourse of the implications of social judgement theory for persuasive advertising campaigns. The discourse shows that advertisers must use persuasive strategies that will make the consumers to be loyal to their brands; more so, the strength of the social judgement ...

  11. The Relationship between Personal Belief and Inspection Judgements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shepherd, Peter

    2010-01-01

    Anglican school inspectors will usually be Christian. Is it possible that their beliefs might compromise their inspection judgements? Neutrality is impossible when holding opinions or making judgements about matters of signal importance. Religious beliefs are strongly held. Using the concept of "ordinary theology" I argue that religious beliefs…

  12. A novel AIDS/HIV intelligent medical consulting system based on expert systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebrahimi, Alireza Pour; Toloui Ashlaghi, Abbas; Mahdavy Rad, Maryam

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to propose a novel intelligent model for AIDS/HIV data based on expert system and using it for developing an intelligent medical consulting system for AIDS/HIV. In this descriptive research, 752 frequently asked questions (FAQs) about AIDS/HIV are gathered from numerous websites about this disease. To perform the data mining and extracting the intelligent model, the 6 stages of Crisp method has been completed for FAQs. The 6 stages include: Business understanding, data understanding, data preparation, modelling, evaluation and deployment. C5.0 Tree classification algorithm is used for modelling. Also, rational unified process (RUP) is used to develop the web-based medical consulting software. Stages of RUP are as follows: Inception, elaboration, construction and transition. The intelligent developed model has been used in the infrastructure of the software and based on client's inquiry and keywords related FAQs are displayed to the client, according to the rank. FAQs' ranks are gradually determined considering clients reading it. Based on displayed FAQs, test and entertainment links are also displayed. The accuracy of the AIDS/HIV intelligent web-based medical consulting system is estimated to be 78.76%. AIDS/HIV medical consulting systems have been developed using intelligent infrastructure. Being equipped with an intelligent model, providing consulting services on systematic textual data and providing side services based on client's activities causes the implemented system to be unique. The research has been approved by Iranian Ministry of Health and Medical Education for being practical.

  13. Normative and descriptive accounts of the influence of power and contingency on causal judgement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perales, José C; Shanks, David R

    2003-08-01

    The power PC theory (Cheng, 1997) is a normative account of causal inference, which predicts that causal judgements are based on the power p of a potential cause, where p is the cause-effect contingency normalized by the base rate of the effect. In three experiments we demonstrate that both cause-effect contingency and effect base-rate independently affect estimates in causal learning tasks. In Experiment 1, causal strength judgements were directly related to power p in a task in which the effect base-rate was manipulated across two positive and two negative contingency conditions. In Experiments 2 and 3 contingency manipulations affected causal estimates in several situations in which power p was held constant, contrary to the power PC theory's predictions. This latter effect cannot be explained by participants' conflation of reliability and causal strength, as Experiment 3 demonstrated independence of causal judgements and confidence. From a descriptive point of view, the data are compatible with Pearce's (1987) model, as well as with several other judgement rules, but not with the Rescorla-Wagner (Rescorla & Wagner, 1972) or power PC models.

  14. Personal Epistemology across Different Judgement Domains: Effects of Grade Level and School Curriculum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xinghua; Zhou, Ji; Shen, Jiliang

    2016-01-01

    This article reports a study that is based on the framework of personal epistemology proposed by Kuhn, Cheney, and Weinstock (2000). The instrument developed by Kuhn et al. (2000) for assessing the three positions (absolutist, multiplist and evaluativist) of epistemological understanding across five judgements' domains was translated and…

  15. A Case Study of Student Judgements of Interest in A Subject ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    They studied the six cues in each profile and then judged their own personal levels of interest on a scale from) (no interest) to 9 (very high interest) based on the information contained each profile. Profiles (N=15) were repeated to determine consistency of judgement of interests. Results were analysed using a single lens ...

  16. An expert system design to diagnose cancer by using a new method reduced rule base.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Başçiftçi, Fatih; Avuçlu, Emre

    2018-04-01

    A Medical Expert System (MES) was developed which uses Reduced Rule Base to diagnose cancer risk according to the symptoms in an individual. A total of 13 symptoms were used. With the new MES, the reduced rules are controlled instead of all possibilities (2 13 = 8192 different possibilities occur). By controlling reduced rules, results are found more quickly. The method of two-level simplification of Boolean functions was used to obtain Reduced Rule Base. Thanks to the developed application with the number of dynamic inputs and outputs on different platforms, anyone can easily test their own cancer easily. More accurate results were obtained considering all the possibilities related to cancer. Thirteen different risk factors were determined to determine the type of cancer. The truth table produced in our study has 13 inputs and 4 outputs. The Boolean Function Minimization method is used to obtain less situations by simplifying logical functions. Diagnosis of cancer quickly thanks to control of the simplified 4 output functions. Diagnosis made with the 4 output values obtained using Reduced Rule Base was found to be quicker than diagnosis made by screening all 2 13 = 8192 possibilities. With the improved MES, more probabilities were added to the process and more accurate diagnostic results were obtained. As a result of the simplification process in breast and renal cancer diagnosis 100% diagnosis speed gain, in cervical cancer and lung cancer diagnosis rate gain of 99% was obtained. With Boolean function minimization, less number of rules is evaluated instead of evaluating a large number of rules. Reducing the number of rules allows the designed system to work more efficiently and to save time, and facilitates to transfer the rules to the designed Expert systems. Interfaces were developed in different software platforms to enable users to test the accuracy of the application. Any one is able to diagnose the cancer itself using determinative risk factors. Thereby

  17. The use of expert opinion for estimation of component unavailability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jordan Cizelj, R.; Kljenak, I.

    1998-01-01

    When evaluating system safety with Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA), data of component reliability are necessary input data. Despite a significant effort which has been devoted to the collection and processing of reliability data during the last ten years, the quality of data available is still not satisfactory. In the present paper, a method for a suitable failure rate estimation with the help of expert judgement of maintenance people is proposed. Expert judgement about component state is combined with information gathered from a classical reliability database. With the proposed method, generic data are adapted to specific components with combination of probability and fuzzy logic theory.(author)

  18. The Evaluation of the Cognitive Learning Process of the Renewed Bloom Taxonomy Using a Web Based Expert System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goksu, Idris

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this study is to develop the Web Based Expert System (WBES) which provides analyses and reports based on the cognitive processes of Renewed Bloom Taxonomy (RBT), and to put forward the impact of the supportive education provided in line with these reports, on the academic achievement and mastery learning state of the students. The study…

  19. 77 FR 15753 - Request for Nominations of Experts for a Science Advisory Board Panel To Review EPA's Web-Based...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-03-16

    ... Advisory Board Panel To Review EPA's Web-Based Report on the Environment AGENCY: Environmental Protection... nominations of technical experts to form an SAB panel to review the Agency's Web-based Report on the... are requested including: (a) Environmental scientists and engineers with knowledge of the sources...

  20. Parallel inferencing method and apparatus for rule-based expert systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwuttke, Ursula M. (Inventor); Moldovan, Dan (Inventor); Kuo, Steve (Inventor)

    1993-01-01

    The invention analyzes areas of conditions with an expert knowledge base of rules using plural separate nodes which fire respective rules of said knowledge base, each of said rules upon being fired altering certain of said conditions predicated upon the existence of other said conditions. The invention operates by constructing a P representation of all pairs of said rules which are input dependent or output dependent; constructing a C representation of all pairs of said rules which are communication dependent or input dependent; determining which of the rules are ready to fire by matching the predicate conditions of each rule with the conditions of said set; enabling said node means to simultaneously fire those of the rules ready to fire which are defined by said P representation as being free of input and output dependencies; and communicating from each node enabled by said enabling step the alteration of conditions by the corresponding rule to other nodes whose rules are defined by said C matrix means as being input or communication dependent upon the rule of said enabled node.

  1. An Expert System for Diagnosis of Sleep Disorder Using Fuzzy Rule-Based Classification Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Septem Riza, Lala; Pradini, Mila; Fitrajaya Rahman, Eka; Rasim

    2017-03-01

    Sleep disorder is an anomaly that could cause problems for someone’ sleeping pattern. Nowadays, it becomes an issue since people are getting busy with their own business and have no time to visit the doctors. Therefore, this research aims to develop a system used for diagnosis of sleep disorder using Fuzzy Rule-Based Classification System (FRBCS). FRBCS is a method based on the fuzzy set concepts. It consists of two steps: (i) constructing a model/knowledge involving rulebase and database, and (ii) prediction over new data. In this case, the knowledge is obtained from experts whereas in the prediction stage, we perform fuzzification, inference, and classification. Then, a platform implementing the method is built with a combination between PHP and the R programming language using the “Shiny” package. To validate the system that has been made, some experiments have been done using data from a psychiatric hospital in West Java, Indonesia. Accuracy of the result and computation time are 84.85% and 0.0133 seconds, respectively.

  2. [Isolated primary nocturnal enuresis: international evidence based management. Consensus recommendations by French expert group].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aubert, D; Berard, E; Blanc, J-P; Lenoir, G; Liard, F; Lottmann, H

    2010-05-01

    The causes and treatment of isolated primary nocturnal enuresis (PNE) are the subject of ongoing controversy. We are proposing consensus practical recommendations, based on a formalised analysis of the literature and validated by a large panel of experts. A task force of six experts based its work on the guide for literature analysis and recommendations and recommendation grading of the French Haute Autorité de Santé (formalized consensus process methodological guidelines) to evaluate the level of scientific proof (grade of 1 to 4) and the strength of the recommendations (grade A, B, C) of the publications on PNE. As a result of this, 223 articles from 2003 on were identified, of which only 127 (57 %) have an evaluable level of proof. This evaluation was then reviewed by a 19-member rating group. Several recommendations, poorly defined by the literature, had to be proposed by a professional agreement resulting from a consultation between the members of the task force and those of the rating group. For its final validation, the document was submitted to a reading group of 21 members working in a wide range of specialist areas and practices but all involved in PNE. The definition of PNE is very specific: intermittent incontinence during sleep, from the age of 5, with no continuous period of continence longer than 6 months, with no other associated symptom, particularly during the day. Its diagnosis is clinical by the exclusion of all other urinary pathologies. Two factors must be identified during the consultation: nocturnal polyuria promoted by excessive fluid intake, inverse secretion of vasopressin, snoring and sleep apnoea. It is sensitive to desmopressin; small bladder capacity evaluated according to a voiding diary and the ICCS formula. It may be associated with diurnal hyperactivity of the detrusor (30 %). It is resistant to desmopressin. Problems associated with PNE are: abnormal arousal threshold, attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) (10 %), low

  3. Rule Based Expert System for Monitoring Real Time Drug Supply in Hospital Using Radio Frequency Identification Technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Driandanu, Galih; Surarso, Bayu; Suryono

    2018-02-01

    A radio frequency identification (RFID) has obtained increasing attention with the emergence of various applications. This study aims to examine the implementation of rule based expert system supported by RFID technology into a monitoring information system of drug supply in a hospital. This research facilitates in monitoring the real time drug supply by using data sample from the hospital pharmacy. This system able to identify and count the number of drug and provide warning and report in real time. the conclusion is the rule based expert system and RFID technology can facilitate the performance in monitoring the drug supply quickly and precisely.

  4. MANAGEMENT OF RISKS BASED ON INTERACTION BETWEEN CONSTRUCTION EXPERT AND CUSTOMER ORGANIZATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Александр Васильевич Харитонович

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available The paper describes problems connected to management of risk and key characteristics of interaction of construction expert and organization-customer of expert services. We have conducted the analysis of different schemes used for management of risk, their advantages and disadvantages. In addition authors describe the main opportunities that appear in the organization as a result of the systematic engagement of an external expert at different stages of investment and construction project (getting recommendations aimed at improving of the organization adaptability to changes and risks; improving the efficiency of management of investment and construction projects etc..

  5. Expert system. Based advisory system for the operator's mental activities support

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gieci, A.; Macko, J.; Mosny, J.

    2000-01-01

    The operator's mental activity is the most important part of his work. A processing of a large amount of the information by the operator is possible only if he/she possesses appropriate cognitive skills. To facilitate the novice's acquisition of the experienced operator's cognitive skills of the decision-making process a special type of the expert system was developed. The cognitive engineering's models and problem-solving methodology constitutes the basis of this expert system. The article gives an account of the prototype of the mentioned expert system developed to aid the whole mental activity of the nuclear power plant operator during his decision-making process. (author)

  6. Superior Administrative Court Lueneburg. Judgement of January 20, 1982 (Kruemmel)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1983-01-01

    This judgement of the OVG Lueneburg (Sup. Adm. Court) decided over the action for annulment of the second part-construction permit for Kruemmel nuclear power plant. Upon the action of the appellant, the OVG partly cancelled the ''design concept license'' for the nuclear power plant and, regarding the remaining items of the appeal, dismissed the appeal. The Court decided that the license for a nuclear power plant design concept is binding for a licensing authority in as much as the following part-construction permits have to be based on the fulfilment of section 7, sub-section 2, no. 3 of the Atomic Energy Act, as far as the plant components to be licensed comply with the licensed concept and are not subject to the conditions of section 17, sub-sections 2-5 of the Atomic Energy Act. This binding effect at the same time leads to the possibility of third parties being affected. (HP) [de

  7. Agent-Based Modelling for Security Risk Assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Janssen, S.A.M.; Sharpans'kykh, Alexei; Bajo, J.; Vale, Z.; Hallenborg, K.; Rocha, A.P.; Mathieu, P.; Pawlewski, P.; Del Val, E.; Novais, P.; Lopes, F.; Duque Méndez, N.D.; Julián, V.; Holmgren, J.

    2017-01-01

    Security Risk Assessment is commonly performed by using traditional methods based on linear probabilistic tools and informal expert judgements. These methods lack the capability to take the inherent dynamic and intelligent nature of attackers into account. To partially address the limitations,

  8. The process of feedback in workplace-based assessment: organisation, delivery, continuity.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pelgrim, E.A.M.; Kramer, A.W.M.; Mokkink, H.G.A.; Vleuten, C.P.M. van der

    2012-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: Feedback in workplace-based clinical settings often relies on expert trainers' judgements of directly observed trainee performance. There is ample literature on effective feedback, but in practice trainees in workplace-based training are not regularly observed. We aimed to examine

  9. Feasibility of an AI-Based Measure of the Hand Motions of Expert and Novice Surgeons

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Munenori Uemura

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available This study investigated whether parameters derived from hand motions of expert and novice surgeons accurately and objectively reflect laparoscopic surgical skill levels using an artificial intelligence system consisting of a three-layer chaos neural network. Sixty-seven surgeons (23 experts and 44 novices performed a laparoscopic skill assessment task while their hand motions were recorded using a magnetic tracking sensor. Eight parameters evaluated as measures of skill in a previous study were used as inputs to the neural network. Optimization of the neural network was achieved after seven trials with a training dataset of 38 surgeons, with a correct judgment ratio of 0.99. The neural network that prospectively worked with the remaining 29 surgeons had a correct judgment rate of 79% for distinguishing between expert and novice surgeons. In conclusion, our artificial intelligence system distinguished between expert and novice surgeons among surgeons with unknown skill levels.

  10. Use of in silico systems and expert knowledge for structure-based assessment of potentially mutagenic impurities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sutter, Andreas; Amberg, Alexander; Boyer, Scott; Brigo, Alessandro; Contrera, Joseph F; Custer, Laura L; Dobo, Krista L; Gervais, Veronique; Glowienke, Susanne; van Gompel, Jacky; Greene, Nigel; Muster, Wolfgang; Nicolette, John; Reddy, M Vijayaraj; Thybaud, Veronique; Vock, Esther; White, Angela T; Müller, Lutz

    2013-10-01

    Genotoxicity hazard identification is part of the impurity qualification process for drug substances and products, the first step of which being the prediction of their potential DNA reactivity using in silico (quantitative) structure-activity relationship (Q)SAR models/systems. This white paper provides information relevant to the development of the draft harmonized tripartite guideline ICH M7 on potentially DNA-reactive/mutagenic impurities in pharmaceuticals and their application in practice. It explains relevant (Q)SAR methodologies as well as the added value of expert knowledge. Moreover, the predictive value of the different methodologies analyzed in two surveys conveyed in the US and European pharmaceutical industry is compared: most pharmaceutical companies used a rule-based expert system as their primary methodology, yielding negative predictivity values of ⩾78% in all participating companies. A further increase (>90%) was often achieved by an additional expert review and/or a second QSAR methodology. Also in the latter case, an expert review was mandatory, especially when conflicting results were obtained. Based on the available data, we concluded that a rule-based expert system complemented by either expert knowledge or a second (Q)SAR model is appropriate. A maximal transparency of the assessment process (e.g. methods, results, arguments of weight-of-evidence approach) achieved by e.g. data sharing initiatives and the use of standards for reporting will enable regulators to fully understand the results of the analysis. Overall, the procedures presented here for structure-based assessment are considered appropriate for regulatory submissions in the scope of ICH M7. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Technological change in Swiss thermal waste treatment: An expert-based socio-technical analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spoerri, Andy; Lang, Daniel J.; Staeubli, Beat; Scholz, Roland W.

    2010-01-01

    Understanding technological change provides a crucial basis for governing sustainability transitions. In this paper we present an analysis of technological change using the example of Swiss thermal waste processing. In recent years, increased concerns about the low quality of residues from grate-firing systems led to the examination of alternative technologies. Yet despite clear indications of a potential better performance with respect to residue quality, none of these alternatives has been adopted. Based on a two-stage knowledge integration among 15 leading experts, in a retrospective analysis we identified factors that have significantly affected technological change in Swiss thermal waste processing. These factors were then related to three technological options representing different types of technological change, i.e., from incremental improvements of the existing to the implementation of a new technology. The results indicate that technological change is currently in a technological lock-in and provide detailed insights on the causes. The lock-in results in the step-wise further development of the status quo grate-firing system despite its limitations for improving the residue qualities. Almost all factors (legal, economic, societal, technological) of the existing 'thermal waste management' system have been well adapted to the cost- and energy-efficient grate-firing technology, blocking innovative technologies from entering the Swiss market. In addition, pressures from the context, e.g., societal pressure related to landfill risks, have not been strong enough to promote non-incremental change.

  12. Exploiting Expert Knowledge to Enhance Simulation-based Optimization of Environmental Remediation Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reslink, C. F.; Matott, L. S.

    2012-12-01

    Designing cost-effective systems to safeguard national water supplies from contaminated sites is often aided by simulation-based optimization - where a flow or transport model is linked with an "off-the-shelf" global optimization search algorithm. However, achieving good performance from these types of optimizers within a reasonable computational budget has proven to be difficult. Therefore, this research seeks to boost optimization efficiency by augmenting search procedures with non-traditional information, such as site-specific knowledge and practitioner rules-of-thumb. An example application involving pump-and-treat optimization is presented in which a series of extraction wells are to be installed to intercept pollutants at a contaminated site in Billings, Montana. Selected heuristic algorithms (e.g. Genetic Algorithm) are interfaced with a rules engine that makes inline adjustments to the well locations of candidate pump-and-treat designs. If necessary, the rules engine modifies a given pump-and-treat design so that: (1) wells are placed within plume boundaries; and (2) well placement is biased toward areas where, if left untreated, the plume is predicted to spread most rapidly. Results suggest that incorporating this kind of expert knowledge can significantly increase the search efficiency of many popular global optimizers.

  13. Clarifying Delirium Management: Practical, Evidenced-Based, Expert Recommendations for Clinical Practice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pirrello, Rosene D.; Hirst, Jeremy M.; Buckholz, Gary T.; Ferris, Frank D.

    2013-01-01

    Abstract Delirium is highly prevalent in those with serious or advanced medical illnesses. It is associated with many adverse consequences, including significant patient, family, and health care provider distress. This article suggests a novel approach to delirium assessment and management and provides useful, practical guidance for clinicians based on a complete review of the existing literature and the expert clinical opinion of the authors and their colleagues, derived from over a decade of collective bedside experience. Comprehensive assessment includes careful description of observed symptoms, signs, and behaviors; and an understanding of the patient's situation, including primary diagnosis, associated comorbidities, functional status, and prognosis. The importance of incorporating goals of care for the patient and family is discussed. The concepts of potential reversibility versus irreversible delirium and delirium subtype are proffered, with a description of how diagnostic and management strategies follow from these concepts. Pharmacological interventions that provide rapid, effective, and safe relief are presented. Employing both pharmacological and nonpharmacological interventions, including patient and family education, improves symptoms and relieves patient and family distress, whether the delirium is reversible or irreversible, hyperactive or hypoactive. All interventions can be provided in any setting of care, including patients' homes. PMID:23480299

  14. Upper arm elevation and repetitive shoulder movements: a general population job exposure matrix based on expert ratings and technical measurements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dalbøge, Annett; Hansson, Gert-Åke; Frost, Poul; Andersen, Johan Hviid; Heilskov-Hansen, Thomas; Svendsen, Susanne Wulff

    2016-08-01

    We recently constructed a general population job exposure matrix (JEM), The Shoulder JEM, based on expert ratings. The overall aim of this study was to convert expert-rated job exposures for upper arm elevation and repetitive shoulder movements to measurement scales. The Shoulder JEM covers all Danish occupational titles, divided into 172 job groups. For 36 of these job groups, we obtained technical measurements (inclinometry) of upper arm elevation and repetitive shoulder movements. To validate the expert-rated job exposures against the measured job exposures, we used Spearman rank correlations and the explained variance[Formula: see text] according to linear regression analyses (36 job groups). We used the linear regression equations to convert the expert-rated job exposures for all 172 job groups into predicted measured job exposures. Bland-Altman analyses were used to assess the agreement between the predicted and measured job exposures. The Spearman rank correlations were 0.63 for upper arm elevation and 0.64 for repetitive shoulder movements. The expert-rated job exposures explained 64% and 41% of the variance of the measured job exposures, respectively. The corresponding calibration equations were y=0.5%time+0.16×expert rating and y=27°/s+0.47×expert rating. The mean differences between predicted and measured job exposures were zero due to calibration; the 95% limits of agreement were ±2.9% time for upper arm elevation >90° and ±33°/s for repetitive shoulder movements. The updated Shoulder JEM can be used to present exposure-response relationships on measurement scales. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

  15. Analysis, Simulation, and Verification of Knowledge-Based, Rule-Based, and Expert Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hinchey, Mike; Rash, James; Erickson, John; Gracanin, Denis; Rouff, Chris

    2010-01-01

    Mathematically sound techniques are used to view a knowledge-based system (KBS) as a set of processes executing in parallel and being enabled in response to specific rules being fired. The set of processes can be manipulated, examined, analyzed, and used in a simulation. The tool that embodies this technology may warn developers of errors in their rules, but may also highlight rules (or sets of rules) in the system that are underspecified (or overspecified) and need to be corrected for the KBS to operate as intended. The rules embodied in a KBS specify the allowed situations, events, and/or results of the system they describe. In that sense, they provide a very abstract specification of a system. The system is implemented through the combination of the system specification together with an appropriate inference engine, independent of the algorithm used in that inference engine. Viewing the rule base as a major component of the specification, and choosing an appropriate specification notation to represent it, reveals how additional power can be derived from an approach to the knowledge-base system that involves analysis, simulation, and verification. This innovative approach requires no special knowledge of the rules, and allows a general approach where standardized analysis, verification, simulation, and model checking techniques can be applied to the KBS.

  16. On the use of the analytic hierarchy process in the aggregation of expert judgments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zio, E.

    1996-01-01

    Expert judgments are involved in many aspects of scientific research, either formally or informally. In order to combine the different opinions elicited, simple aggregation methods have often been used with the result that expert biases, interexpert dependencies and other factors which might affect the judgments of the experts are often ignored. A more comprehensive approach, based on the analytic hierarchy process, is proposed in this paper to account for the large variety of factors influencing the experts. A structured hierarchy is constructed to decompose the overall problem in the elementary factors that can influence the expert's judgements. The importance of the different elements of the hierarchy is then assessed by pairwise comparison. The overall approach is simple, presents a systematic character and offers a good degree of flexibility. The approach provides the decision maker with a tool to quantitatively measure the significance of the judgments provided by the different experts involved in the elicitation. The resulting values can be used as weights in an aggregation scheme such as, for example, the simple weighted averaging scheme. Two applications of the approach are presented with reference to case studies of formal expert judgment elicitation previously analyzed in literature: the elicitation of the pressure increment in the containment building of the Sequoyah nuclear power plant following reactor vessel breach, and the prediction of the future changes in precipitation in the vicinity of Yucca Mountain

  17. Expert Systems for the Analytical Laboratory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Monchy, Allan R.; And Others

    1988-01-01

    Discusses two computer problem solving programs: rule-based expert systems and decision analysis expert systems. Explores the application of expert systems to automated chemical analyses. Presents six factors to consider before using expert systems. (MVL)

  18. Recommendations for radioembolisation after liver surgery using yttrium-90 resin microspheres based on a survey of an international expert panel

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Samim, Morsal [University Medical Center Utrecht, Department of Surgery, Utrecht (Netherlands); University Medical Center Utrecht, Department of Radiology and Nuclear Medicine, Utrecht (Netherlands); Veenendaal, Linde M. van; Braat, Manon N.G.J.A.; Hoven, Andor F. van den; Bosch, Maurice A.A.J. van den; Lam, Marnix G.E.H. [University Medical Center Utrecht, Department of Radiology and Nuclear Medicine, Utrecht (Netherlands); Hillegersberg, Richard van [University Medical Center Utrecht, Department of Surgery, Utrecht (Netherlands); Sangro, Bruno [Clinica Universidad de Navarra-IDISNA and CIBEREHD, Liver Unit, Pamplona (Spain); Kao, Yung Hsiang [Cabrini Hospital, Department of Nuclear Medicine, Melbourne (Australia); Liu, Dave [Vancouver General Hospital, University of British Columbia, Department of Radiology, Vancouver, British Columbia (Canada); Louie, John D.; Sze, Daniel Y. [Stanford University Medical Center, Division of Interventional Radiology, Stanford (United States); Rose, Steven C. [University of California, Department of Radiology, San Diego (United States); Brown, Daniel B. [Vanderbilt University, Medical Center North, Department of Radiology, Nashville (United States); Ahmadzadehfar, Hojjat [University Hospital Bonn, Department of Nuclear Medicine, Bonn (Germany); Kim, Edward [Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, Division of Vascular and Interventional Radiology, New York (United States)

    2017-12-15

    Guidelines on how to adjust activity in patients with a history of liver surgery who are undergoing yttrium-90 radioembolisation ({sup 90}Y-RE) are lacking. The aim was to study the variability in activity prescription in these patients, between centres with extensive experience using resin microspheres {sup 90}Y-RE, and to draw recommendations on activity prescription based on an expert consensus. The variability in activity prescription between centres was investigated by a survey of international experts in the field of {sup 90}Y-RE. Six representative post-surgical patients (i.e. comparable activity prescription, different outcome) were selected. Information on patients' disease characteristics and data needed for activity calculation was presented to the expert panel. Reported was the used method for activity prescription and whether, how and why activity reduction was found indicated. Ten experts took part in the survey. Recommendations on activity reduction were highly variable between the expert panel. The median intra-patient range was 44 Gy (range 18-55 Gy). Reductions in prescribed activity were recommended in 68% of the cases. In consensus, a maximum D{sub Target} of 50 Gy was recommended. With a current lack of guidelines, large variability in activity prescription in post-surgical patients undergoing {sup 90}Y-RE exists. In consensus, D{sub Target} ≤50 Gy is recommended. (orig.)

  19. Rule-based expert system to establish the linkage between yarn twist factor and end-use.

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Dlodlo, N

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes the concepts and development of a rule-based expert system to establish the optimum linkage between the yarn twist factor and end-use of a yarn and determine the appropriate twist for the particular yarn. The quality of a yarn...

  20. Essential Concepts of Nanoscale Science and Technology for High School Students Based on a Delphi Study by the Expert Community

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sakhnini, Sohair; Blonder, Ron

    2015-01-01

    Nanoscale science and technology (NST) is an important new field in modern science. In the current study, we seek to answer the question: "What are the essential concepts of NST that should be taught in high school"? A 3-round Delphi study methodology was applied based on 2 communities of experts in nanotechnology research and science…

  1. Evolving Expert Knowledge Bases: Applications of Crowdsourcing and Serious Gaming to Advance Knowledge Development for Intelligent Tutoring Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Floryan, Mark

    2013-01-01

    This dissertation presents a novel effort to develop ITS technologies that adapt by observing student behavior. In particular, we define an evolving expert knowledge base (EEKB) that structures a domain's information as a set of nodes and the relationships that exist between those nodes. The structure of this model is not the particularly novel…

  2. Computer-based diagnostic expert systems in rheumatology: where do we stand in 2014?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alder, Hannes; Michel, Beat A; Marx, Christian; Tamborrini, Giorgio; Langenegger, Thomas; Bruehlmann, Pius; Steurer, Johann; Wildi, Lukas M

    2014-01-01

    Background. The early detection of rheumatic diseases and the treatment to target have become of utmost importance to control the disease and improve its prognosis. However, establishing a diagnosis in early stages is challenging as many diseases initially present with similar symptoms and signs. Expert systems are computer programs designed to support the human decision making and have been developed in almost every field of medicine. Methods. This review focuses on the developments in the field of rheumatology to give a comprehensive insight. Medline, Embase, and Cochrane Library were searched. Results. Reports of 25 expert systems with different design and field of application were found. The performance of 19 of the identified expert systems was evaluated. The proportion of correctly diagnosed cases was between 43.1 and 99.9%. Sensitivity and specificity ranged from 62 to 100 and 88 to 98%, respectively. Conclusions. Promising diagnostic expert systems with moderate to excellent performance were identified. The validation process was in general underappreciated. None of the systems, however, seemed to have succeeded in daily practice. This review identifies optimal characteristics to increase the survival rate of expert systems and may serve as valuable information for future developments in the field.

  3. Beta adrenergic blockade reduces utilitarian judgement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sylvia, Terbeck; Guy, Kahane; Sarah, McTavish; Julian, Savulescu; Neil, Levy; Miles, Hewstone; Cowen, Philip J.

    2013-01-01

    Noradrenergic pathways are involved in mediating the central and peripheral effects of physiological arousal. The aim of the present study was to investigate the role of noradrenergic transmission in moral decision-making. We studied the effects in healthy volunteers of propranolol (a noradrenergic beta-adrenoceptor antagonist) on moral judgement in a set of moral dilemmas pitting utilitarian outcomes (e.g., saving five lives) against highly aversive harmful actions (e.g., killing an innocent person) in a double-blind, placebo-controlled, parallel group design. Propranolol (40 mg orally) significantly reduced heart rate, but had no effect on self-reported mood. Importantly, propranolol made participants more likely to judge harmful actions as morally unacceptable, but only in dilemmas where harms were ‘up close and personal’. In addition, longer response times for such personal dilemmas were only found for the placebo group. Finally, judgments in personal dilemmas by the propranolol group were more decisive. These findings indicate that noradrenergic pathways play a role in responses to moral dilemmas, in line with recent work implicating emotion in moral decision-making. However, contrary to current theorising, these findings also suggest that aversion to harming is not driven by emotional arousal. Our findings are also of significant practical interest given that propranolol is a widely used drug in different settings, and is currently being considered as a potential treatment for post-traumatic stress disorder in military and rescue service personnel. PMID:23085134

  4. Values in breast cancer screening: an empirical study with Australian experts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parker, Lisa; Rychetnik, Lucie; Carter, Stacy

    2015-05-20

    To explore what Australian experts value in breast screening, how these values are conceptualised and prioritised, and how they inform experts' reasoning and judgement about the Australian breast-screening programme. Qualitative study based on interviews with experts. 33 experts, including clinicians, programme managers, policymakers, advocates and researchers selected for their recognisable influence in the Australian breast-screening setting. Australian breast-screening policy, practice and research settings. Experts expressed 2 types of values: ethical values (about what was good, important or right) and epistemological values (about how evidence should be created and used). Ethical values included delivering benefit, avoiding harm, promoting autonomy, fairness, cost effectiveness, accountability, professionalism and transparency. Epistemological values informed experts' arguments about prioritising and evaluating evidence methodology, source population and professional interests. Some values were conceptualised differently by experts: for example, delivering benefit could mean reducing breast cancer mortality, reducing all-cause mortality, reducing mortality in younger women, reducing need for aggressive treatment, and/or reassuring women they were cancer free. When values came into conflict, experts prioritised them differently: for example, when experts perceived a conflict between delivering benefits and promoting autonomy, there were differences in which value was prioritised. We explain the complexity of the relationship between held values and experts' overall views on breast cancer screening. Experts' positions in breast screening are influenced by evidence and a wide range of ethical and epistemological values. We conclude that discussions about values should be a regular part of breast-screening review in order to build understanding between those who hold different positions, and provide a mechanism for responding to these differences. Published by

  5. A human error probability estimate methodology based on fuzzy inference and expert judgment on nuclear plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nascimento, C.S. do; Mesquita, R.N. de

    2009-01-01

    Recent studies point human error as an important factor for many industrial and nuclear accidents: Three Mile Island (1979), Bhopal (1984), Chernobyl and Challenger (1986) are classical examples. Human contribution to these accidents may be better understood and analyzed by using Human Reliability Analysis (HRA), which has being taken as an essential part on Probabilistic Safety Analysis (PSA) of nuclear plants. Both HRA and PSA depend on Human Error Probability (HEP) for a quantitative analysis. These probabilities are extremely affected by the Performance Shaping Factors (PSF), which has a direct effect on human behavior and thus shape HEP according with specific environment conditions and personal individual characteristics which are responsible for these actions. This PSF dependence raises a great problem on data availability as turn these scarcely existent database too much generic or too much specific. Besides this, most of nuclear plants do not keep historical records of human error occurrences. Therefore, in order to overcome this occasional data shortage, a methodology based on Fuzzy Inference and expert judgment was employed in this paper in order to determine human error occurrence probabilities and to evaluate PSF's on performed actions by operators in a nuclear power plant (IEA-R1 nuclear reactor). Obtained HEP values were compared with reference tabled data used on current literature in order to show method coherence and valid approach. This comparison leads to a conclusion that this work results are able to be employed both on HRA and PSA enabling efficient prospection of plant safety conditions, operational procedures and local working conditions potential improvements (author)

  6. Collaborative update of a rule-based expert system for HIV-1 genotypic resistance test interpretation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paredes, Roger; Tzou, Philip L; van Zyl, Gert; Barrow, Geoff; Camacho, Ricardo; Carmona, Sergio; Grant, Philip M; Gupta, Ravindra K; Hamers, Raph L; Harrigan, P Richard; Jordan, Michael R; Kantor, Rami; Katzenstein, David A; Kuritzkes, Daniel R; Maldarelli, Frank; Otelea, Dan; Wallis, Carole L; Schapiro, Jonathan M; Shafer, Robert W

    2017-01-01

    HIV-1 genotypic resistance test (GRT) interpretation systems (IS) require updates as new studies on HIV-1 drug resistance are published and as treatment guidelines evolve. An expert panel was created to provide recommendations for the update of the Stanford HIV Drug Resistance Database (HIVDB) GRT-IS. The panel was polled on the ARVs to be included in a GRT report, and the drug-resistance interpretations associated with 160 drug-resistance mutation (DRM) pattern-ARV combinations. The DRM pattern-ARV combinations included 52 nucleoside RT inhibitor (NRTI) DRM pattern-ARV combinations (13 patterns x 4 NRTIs), 27 nonnucleoside RT inhibitor (NNRTI) DRM pattern-ARV combinations (9 patterns x 3 NNRTIs), 39 protease inhibitor (PI) DRM pattern-ARV combinations (13 patterns x 3 PIs) and 42 integrase strand transfer inhibitor (INSTI) DRM pattern-ARV combinations (14 patterns x 3 INSTIs). There was universal agreement that a GRT report should include the NRTIs lamivudine, abacavir, zidovudine, emtricitabine, and tenofovir disoproxil fumarate; the NNRTIs efavirenz, etravirine, nevirapine, and rilpivirine; the PIs atazanavir/r, darunavir/r, and lopinavir/r (with "/r" indicating pharmacological boosting with ritonavir or cobicistat); and the INSTIs dolutegravir, elvitegravir, and raltegravir. There was a range of opinion as to whether the NRTIs stavudine and didanosine and the PIs nelfinavir, indinavir/r, saquinavir/r, fosamprenavir/r, and tipranavir/r should be included. The expert panel members provided highly concordant DRM pattern-ARV interpretations with only 6% of NRTI, 6% of NNRTI, 5% of PI, and 3% of INSTI individual expert interpretations differing from the expert panel median by more than one resistance level. The expert panel median differed from the HIVDB 7.0 GRT-IS for 20 (12.5%) of the 160 DRM pattern-ARV combinations including 12 NRTI, two NNRTI, and six INSTI pattern-ARV combinations. Eighteen of these differences were updated in HIVDB 8.1 GRT-IS to reflect the

  7. Collaborative update of a rule-based expert system for HIV-1 genotypic resistance test interpretation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roger Paredes

    Full Text Available HIV-1 genotypic resistance test (GRT interpretation systems (IS require updates as new studies on HIV-1 drug resistance are published and as treatment guidelines evolve.An expert panel was created to provide recommendations for the update of the Stanford HIV Drug Resistance Database (HIVDB GRT-IS. The panel was polled on the ARVs to be included in a GRT report, and the drug-resistance interpretations associated with 160 drug-resistance mutation (DRM pattern-ARV combinations. The DRM pattern-ARV combinations included 52 nucleoside RT inhibitor (NRTI DRM pattern-ARV combinations (13 patterns x 4 NRTIs, 27 nonnucleoside RT inhibitor (NNRTI DRM pattern-ARV combinations (9 patterns x 3 NNRTIs, 39 protease inhibitor (PI DRM pattern-ARV combinations (13 patterns x 3 PIs and 42 integrase strand transfer inhibitor (INSTI DRM pattern-ARV combinations (14 patterns x 3 INSTIs.There was universal agreement that a GRT report should include the NRTIs lamivudine, abacavir, zidovudine, emtricitabine, and tenofovir disoproxil fumarate; the NNRTIs efavirenz, etravirine, nevirapine, and rilpivirine; the PIs atazanavir/r, darunavir/r, and lopinavir/r (with "/r" indicating pharmacological boosting with ritonavir or cobicistat; and the INSTIs dolutegravir, elvitegravir, and raltegravir. There was a range of opinion as to whether the NRTIs stavudine and didanosine and the PIs nelfinavir, indinavir/r, saquinavir/r, fosamprenavir/r, and tipranavir/r should be included. The expert panel members provided highly concordant DRM pattern-ARV interpretations with only 6% of NRTI, 6% of NNRTI, 5% of PI, and 3% of INSTI individual expert interpretations differing from the expert panel median by more than one resistance level. The expert panel median differed from the HIVDB 7.0 GRT-IS for 20 (12.5% of the 160 DRM pattern-ARV combinations including 12 NRTI, two NNRTI, and six INSTI pattern-ARV combinations. Eighteen of these differences were updated in HIVDB 8.1 GRT-IS to reflect

  8. Combination treatment of neuropathic pain: Danish expert recommendations based on a Delphi process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Holbech JV

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Jakob Vormstrup Holbech,1 Anne Jung,2 Torsten Jonsson,3 Mette Wanning,4 Claus Bredahl,5 Flemming W Bach6 1Department of Neurology, Odense University Hospital, Odense, 2Medicinsk Fælles Ambulatorium, Holbaek Hospital, 3Aleris-Hamlet Hospitaler Ringsted, 4The Private Pain Clinic, Herlev, 5Clinic Acute Orthopedic Surgical Anesthesia Section, Aalborg Universitetshospital, Aalborg, 6Department of Neurology, Aarhus University Hospital, Aarhus, Denmark Background: Current Danish treatment algorithms for pharmacological treatment of neuropathic pain (NeP are tricyclic antidepressants (TCA, gabapentin and pregabalin as first-line treatment for the most common NeP conditions. Many patients have insufficient pain relief on monotherapy, but combination therapy had not been included in guidelines until recently. Based on clinical empiricism and scientific evidence, a Delphi consensus process provided a consolidated guidance on pharmacological combination treatment of NeP.Methods: A two-round virtual internet-based Delphi process with 6 Danish pain specialists was undertaken. In the first round, questions were answered individually and anonymously, whereas in the second round, the panel openly discussed first round’s summary of outcomes. Combinations of pharmacological pain treatments, that is, pregabalin/gabapentin, TCAs, serotonin-norepinephrine reuptake inhibitors (SNRIs, selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors, opioids, other antiepileptics and cutaneous patches, were assessed based on both scientific and clinical practice experiences. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC grading system was used for evidence rating.Results: Combination of pregabalin/gabapentin with TCA is useful in patients who do not gain sufficient pain relief or tolerate either drug in high doses, or to improve sleep disturbance. Also, combination of pregabalin/gabapentin and SNRIs is reasonably well documented and experienced by some experts to result in sufficient

  9. The effect of improving task representativeness on capturing nurses' risk assessment judgements: a comparison of written case simulations and physical simulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Huiqin; Thompson, Carl; Hamm, Robert M; Bland, Martin; Foster, Alison

    2013-05-30

    The validity of studies describing clinicians' judgements based on their responses to paper cases is questionable, because - commonly used - paper case simulations only partly reflect real clinical environments. In this study we test whether paper case simulations evoke similar risk assessment judgements to the more realistic simulated patients used in high fidelity physical simulations. 97 nurses (34 experienced nurses and 63 student nurses) made dichotomous assessments of risk of acute deterioration on the same 25 simulated scenarios in both paper case and physical simulation settings. Scenarios were generated from real patient cases. Measures of judgement 'ecology' were derived from the same case records. The relationship between nurses' judgements, actual patient outcomes (i.e. ecological criteria), and patient characteristics were described using the methodology of judgement analysis. Logistic regression models were constructed to calculate Lens Model Equation parameters. Parameters were then compared between the modeled paper-case and physical-simulation judgements. Participants had significantly less achievement (ra) judging physical simulations than when judging paper cases. They used less modelable knowledge (G) with physical simulations than with paper cases, while retaining similar cognitive control and consistency on repeated patients. Respiration rate, the most important cue for predicting patient risk in the ecological model, was weighted most heavily by participants. To the extent that accuracy in judgement analysis studies is a function of task representativeness, improving task representativeness via high fidelity physical simulations resulted in lower judgement performance in risk assessments amongst nurses when compared to paper case simulations. Lens Model statistics could prove useful when comparing different options for the design of simulations used in clinical judgement analysis. The approach outlined may be of value to those designing and

  10. Considerations Regarding the Expert Systems in the Economy and the Use Method of the Production Systems Based on Rules

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eugenia IANCU

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available As it is known, the expert systems- particularlyreferring to the ones in the economical area, represent a currentissue of our days, them being approached by all the economicalbranches. Starting from these aspects, we wish to present somenecessary principles and considerations regarding the expertsystems, representation of the facts, systems based onproduction rules. The objective of this paper is aimed toidentifying the exigencies of the production system based onrules.

  11. Overall welfare assessment of pregnant sow housing systems based on interviews with experts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bracke, M.B.M.; Metz, J.H.M.; Spruijt, B.M.; Dijkhuizen, A.A.

    1999-01-01

    In interviews with 11 pig experts the main housing systems for pregnant sows were identified as tethering (T), individual housing in stalls (IS), group housing with stalls (GS), trickle feeding or biofix (B), electronic sow feeding (ESF), and outdoor housing with huts (O). The family pen system

  12. Assessment of giant panda habitat based on integration of expert system and neural network

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Liu, X.; Skidmore, A.K.; Bronsveld, M.C.

    2006-01-01

    To conserve giant panda effectively, it is important to understand the spatial pattern and temporal change of its habitat. Mapping is an effective approach for wildlife habitat evaluation and monitoring. The application of recently developed artificial intelligence tools, including expert systems

  13. Oil palm fresh fruit bunch ripeness classification based on rule- based expert system of ROI image processing technique results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alfatni, M S M; Shariff, A R M; Marhaban, M H; Shafie, S B; Saaed, O M B; Abdullah, M Z; BAmiruddin, M D

    2014-01-01

    There is a processing need for a fast, easy and accurate classification system for oil palm fruit ripeness. Such a system will be invaluable to farmers and plantation managers who need to sell their oil palm fresh fruit bunch (FFB) for the mill as this will avoid disputes. In this paper,a new approach was developed under the name of expert rules-based systembased on the image processing techniques results of thethree different oil palm FFB region of interests (ROIs), namely; ROI1 (300x300 pixels), ROI2 (50x50 pixels) and ROI3 (100x100 pixels). The results show that the best rule-based ROIs for statistical colour feature extraction with k-nearest neighbors (KNN) classifier at 94% were chosen as well as the ROIs that indicated results higher than the rule-based outcome, such as the ROIs of statistical colour feature extraction with artificial neural network (ANN) classifier at 94%, were selected for further FFB ripeness inspection system

  14. Modeling the Construct of an Expert Evidence-Adaptive Knowledge Base for a Pressure Injury Clinical Decision Support System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peck Chui Betty Khong

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The selection of appropriate wound products for the treatment of pressure injuries is paramount in promoting wound healing. However, nurses find it difficult to decide on the most optimal wound product(s due to limited live experiences in managing pressure injuries resulting from successfully implemented pressure injury prevention programs. The challenges of effective decision-making in wound treatments by nurses at the point of care are compounded by the yearly release of wide arrays of newly researched wound products into the consumer market. A clinical decision support system for pressure injury (PI-CDSS was built to facilitate effective decision-making and selection of optimal wound treatments. This paper describes the development of PI-CDSS with an expert knowledge base using an interactive development environment, Blaze Advisor. A conceptual framework using decision-making and decision theory, knowledge representation, and process modelling guided the construct of the PI-CDSS. This expert system has incorporated the practical and relevant decision knowledge of wound experts in assessment and wound treatments in its algorithm. The construct of the PI-CDSS is adaptive, with scalable capabilities for expansion to include other CDSSs and interoperability to interface with other existing clinical and administrative systems. The algorithm was formatively evaluated and tested for usability. The treatment modalities generated after using patient-specific assessment data were found to be consistent with the treatment plan(s proposed by the wound experts. The overall agreement exceeded 90% between the wound experts and the generated treatment modalities for the choice of wound products, instructions, and alerts. The PI-CDSS serves as a just-in-time wound treatment protocol with suggested clinical actions for nurses, based on the best evidence available.

  15. Furthering patient adherence: a position paper of the international expert forum on patient adherence based on an internet forum discussion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Dulmen, Sandra; Sluijs, Emmy; van Dijk, Liset; de Ridder, Denise; Heerdink, Rob; Bensing, Jozien

    2008-02-27

    As the problem of patient non-adherence persists and a solution appears hard to be found, it continues to be important to look for new ways to further the issue. We recently conducted a meta-review of adherence intervention studies which yielded a preliminary agenda for future research, practice and theory development in patient adherence. The objective of the present project was to find out to what extent adherence experts consider this agenda relevant and feasible. The thirty-five corresponding authors of the review studies included in the meta-review were invited to join the International Expert Forum on Patient Adherence and to participate in a four-week web-based focus group discussion. The discussion was triggered by the points on the preliminary agenda presented as propositions to which forum members could react. Two researchers analysed the transcripts and selected relevant phrases. Twenty adherence experts participated. Various ideas and viewpoints were raised. After the closure of the web-site, the expert forum was asked to authorize the synthesis of the discussion, to list the propositions in order of priority and to answer a few questions on the use of the web-based focus group as a tool to obtain expert opinions. Their ranking showed that the development of simple interventions is the most promising step to take in fostering patient adherence, preferably within a multidisciplinary setting of medical, pharmaceutical, social and technical science and, not in the least, by incorporating patients' perspectives. For enhancing adherence, the development of simple interventions originating from a multidisciplinary perspective including patients' input, appears most promising. Disclosing patients' perspectives requires open communication about patients' expectations, needs and experiences in taking medication and about what might help them to become and remain adherent.

  16. Furthering patient adherence: A position paper of the international expert forum on patient adherence based on an internet forum discussion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Heerdink Rob

    2008-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background As the problem of patient non-adherence persists and a solution appears hard to be found, it continues to be important to look for new ways to further the issue. We recently conducted a meta-review of adherence intervention studies which yielded a preliminary agenda for future research, practice and theory development in patient adherence. The objective of the present project was to find out to what extent adherence experts consider this agenda relevant and feasible. Methods The thirty-five corresponding authors of the review studies included in the meta-review were invited to join the International Expert Forum on Patient Adherence and to participate in a four-week web-based focus group discussion. The discussion was triggered by the points on the preliminary agenda presented as propositions to which forum members could react. Two researchers analysed the transcripts and selected relevant phrases. Results Twenty adherence experts participated. Various ideas and viewpoints were raised. After the closure of the web-site, the expert forum was asked to authorize the synthesis of the discussion, to list the propositions in order of priority and to answer a few questions on the use of the web-based focus group as a tool to obtain expert opinions. Their ranking showed that the development of simple interventions is the most promising step to take in fostering patient adherence, preferably within a multidisciplinary setting of medical, pharmaceutical, social and technical science and, not in the least, by incorporating patients' perspectives. Conclusion For enhancing adherence, the development of simple interventions originating from a multidisciplinary perspective including patients' input, appears most promising. Disclosing patients' perspectives requires open communication about patients' expectations, needs and experiences in taking medication and about what might help them to become and remain adherent.

  17. Differential diagnosis of follicular tumor by expert systems based on a set of quantitative features of thyrocyte nuclei and aggregates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirillov, Vladimir; Emeliyanova, Olga

    2012-04-01

    To develop expert systems for classification of follicular thyroid tumor at a preoperative stage. Fine needle aspiration biopsy of the thyroid gland with a histologic conclusion of follicular cancer and follicular adenoma were the object of the morphometric study. General sample size was 4500 nuclei and 3000 aggregates. Quantitative regularities of pathologic changes in thyrocyte nuclei and aggregates in follicular cancer and follicular adenoma were revealed. Threshold values and weighting coefficients of quantitative features of thyrocyte nuclei and aggregates characterizing cancer made the basis of the two expert systems. Expert systems included standard 2-D S-matrix containing threshold values of nuclei and aggregates in cancer and their weighting coefficients as well as 1-D scientific X-matrix designed for filling with quantitative features of the studied object. The diagnosis was verified by the value of a diagnostic index by means of comparing feature values in the corresponding elements of S- and X-matrices. After that, a diagnostic index was calculated taking into account the features' weighting coefficient. The developed expert systems based on a set of quantitative features of thyrocyte nuclei and aggregates will allow assessing the malignant potential of a follicular thyroid tumor at a preoperative stage.

  18. Knowledge-based expert systems and a proof-of-concept case study for multiple sequence alignment construction and analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aniba, Mohamed Radhouene; Siguenza, Sophie; Friedrich, Anne; Plewniak, Frédéric; Poch, Olivier; Marchler-Bauer, Aron; Thompson, Julie Dawn

    2009-01-01

    The traditional approach to bioinformatics analyses relies on independent task-specific services and applications, using different input and output formats, often idiosyncratic, and frequently not designed to inter-operate. In general, such analyses were performed by experts who manually verified the results obtained at each step in the process. Today, the amount of bioinformatics information continuously being produced means that handling the various applications used to study this information presents a major data management and analysis challenge to researchers. It is now impossible to manually analyse all this information and new approaches are needed that are capable of processing the large-scale heterogeneous data in order to extract the pertinent information. We review the recent use of integrated expert systems aimed at providing more efficient knowledge extraction for bioinformatics research. A general methodology for building knowledge-based expert systems is described, focusing on the unstructured information management architecture, UIMA, which provides facilities for both data and process management. A case study involving a multiple alignment expert system prototype called AlexSys is also presented.

  19. An Expert-Based Assessment Model for Evaluating Habitat Suitability of Pond-Breeding Amphibians

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shin-Ruoh Juang

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Farm ponds are important habitats for amphibians, birds, and other wildlife. In Taiwan, artificial ponds were originally created on farmlands for irrigation purposes and the needs of the domestic water supply. Although pond creation is a typical farming practice, it also provides habitats for pond-breeding amphibians. Thus, it is essential to understand the current status of habitats and their vulnerability regarding urgent conservation needs for target species. Günther’s frog (Hylarana guentheri, a pond-breeding amphibian, has a high sensitivity towards surrounding environmental changes, and can be used as an indicator species to assess habitat suitability. The purpose of this study is to establish a systematic framework to assess the habitat suitability of pond-breeding amphibians by using Günther’s frog as a pilot-study species. First, we collected frog survey data from Chiayi, Taiwan, from winter 2013 to spring 2015, and investigated the present status of the environmental conditions around the ponds. Next, expert questionnaires and the fuzzy Delphi method were applied to establish the hierarchical evaluation criteria regarding the habitat suitability assessment. Four indicators: the aquatic environments of farm ponds; the terrestrial environments around ponds; landscape connectivity; and the conservation perceptions of the residents, were determined as first-layer factors in the assessment criteria, while ten other indicators were defined as second-layer factors. Based on the established assessment criteria, we performed in situ habitat suitability evaluations on 69 selected sites and surveyed the perceptions of the residents using questionnaires. Results revealed that 19% of locations were rich in frog species with a high habitat suitability. However, 67% of locations showed signs of habitat degradation, which may imply a higher need in practicing habitat improvement or restoration. The Kappa value was 0.6061, which indicated a high

  20. Expert systems: An overview

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Verdejo, F.

    1985-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to introduce readers to the basic principles of rule-based expert systems. Four topics are discussed in subsequent sections: (1) Definition; (2) Structure of an expert system; (3) State of the art and (4) Impact and future research. (orig.)

  1. THE BOTS EXPERTS BASED ON THE PROCEDURAL KNOWLEDGE CREATION INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Володимир Олександрович ТІМОФЄЄВ

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Now the world web answers the questions "who?", "what?", "where?" and "when?" fast and completely. But not the question "how?", especially "how to settle emergency situation?” (which refers to procedural knowledge usually, private user’s advice from various forums is employed as the response. And this is despite the real boom of bots - programs that mimic human action through the Internet interfaces and of the so-called chatbots, that are the programs to provide answers within individual sites. The differences in knowledge representation forms make it impossible to use existing chatbot creation information technologies for dissemination the procedural knowledge in the bot-experts form via Internet. For the problem solution, the original information technology is offered. The article is addressed to IT-specialists, experts in various areas and to heads of the enterprises to use for creating the Internet consulting business or to solve organizational problems in an existing business.

  2. Knowledge-based expert system for fouling assessment of industrial heat exchangers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Afgan, N.H.; Carvalho, M.G. [Instituto Superior Tecnico, Lisbon (Portugal). Lab. de Electrodinamica

    1996-03-01

    The paper emphasises the need for the development of the expert system as a tool for the mitigation of the fouling processes. Particular reference is given to the design margin lifetime assessment, fouling process control, fouling removal assessment and heat-exchanger safety by the expert system for industrial heat exchangers. This paper presents the concept of a heat-exchanger on-line system. The heat-exchanger efficiency is defined by the NTU concept for the simple parallel co-current heat exchanger. The respective methodology is used for the description of the generic behaviour of the heat-exchanger system. Particular attention was paid to the recognition of those situations leading to the degradation of the efficiency of the heat exchanger. The paper describes the selection of the diagnostic variables and their on-line measurements, including the logging system for the monitoring and acquisition of the data. (Author)

  3. The fault diagnosis of large-scale wind turbine based on expert system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Changzheng; Li, Yun

    2011-10-01

    The wind turbine is the critical equipment for wind power, due to the poor working environment and the long running, the wind turbine components will have a variety of failures. Planned maintenance which has long been used is unable to understand the operational status of equipment comprehensively and timely in a way, especially for large wind machine, the repair work took too long time and cause serious damage. Therefore, fault diagnosis and predictive maintenance becomes more imminent. In this paper, the fault symptoms and corresponding reason of the large-scale wind turbine parts are analyzed and summarized ,such as gear box, generator, yaw system, and so on . And on this basis, the large-scale wind turbine fault diagnosis expert system was constructed by using expert system tool CLIPS and Visual C + +.

  4. A fuzzy rule-based expert system for diagnosing cystic fibrosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hassanzad, Maryam; Orooji, Azam; Valinejadi, Ali; Velayati, Aliakbar

    2017-12-01

    Finding a valid diagnosis is mostly a prolonged process. Current advances in the sector of artificial intelligence have led to the appearance of expert systems that enrich the experiences and capabilities of doctors for making decisions for their patients. The objective of this research was developing a fuzzy expert system for diagnosing Cystic Fibrosis (CF). Defining the risk factors and then, designing the fuzzy expert system for diagnosis of CF were carried out in this cross-sectional study. To evaluate the performance of the proposed system, a dataset that corresponded to 70 patients with respiratory disease who were serially admitted to the CF Clinic in the Pediatric Respiratory Diseases Center, Masih Daneshvari Hospital in Tehran, Iran during August 2016 to January 2017 was considered. Whole procedures of system construction were implemented in a MATLAB environment. Results showed that the suggested system can be used as a strong diagnostic tool with 93.02% precision, 89.29% specificity, 95.24% sensitivity and 92.86% accuracy for diagnosing CF. There was also a good relationship between the user and the system through the appealing user interface. The system is equipped with information, knowledge, and expertise from certified specialists; hence, as a training tool it can be useful for new physicians. It is worth mentioning that the accomplishment of this project depends on advocacy of decision making in CF diagnosis. Nevertheless, it is expected that the system will reduce the number of false positives and false negatives in unusual cases.

  5. Influence of experience and qualification on PET-based target volume delineation. When there is no expert - ask your colleague

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Doll, C.; Grosu, A.L.; Nestle, U.; Duncker-Rohr, V.; Ruecker, G.; Mix, M.; MacManus, M.; Ruysscher, D. de; Vogel, W.; Eriksen, J.G.; Oyen, W.; Weber, W.

    2014-01-01

    The integration of positron emission tomography (PET) information for target volume delineation in radiation treatment planning is routine in many centers. In contrast to automatic contouring, research on visual-manual delineation is scarce. The present study investigates the dependency of manual delineation on experience and qualification. A total of 44 international interdisciplinary observers each defined a [ 18 F]fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG)-PET based gross tumor volume (GTV) using the same PET/CT scan from a patient with lung cancer. The observers were ''experts'' (E; n = 3), ''experienced interdisciplinary pairs'' (EP; 9 teams of radiation oncologist (RO) + nuclear medicine physician (NP)), ''single field specialists'' (SFS; n = 13), and ''students'' (S; n = 10). Five automatic delineation methods (AM) were also included. Volume sizes and concordance indices within the groups (pCI) and relative to the experts (eCI) were calculated. E (pCI = 0.67) and EP (pCI = 0.53) showed a significantly higher agreement within the groups as compared to SFS (pCI = 0.43, p = 0.03, and p = 0.006). In relation to the experts, EP (eCI = 0.55) showed better concordance compared to SFS (eCI = 0.49) or S (eCI = 0.47). The intermethod variability of the AM (pCI = 0.44) was similar to that of SFS and S, showing poorer agreement with the experts (eCI = 0.35). The results suggest that interdisciplinary cooperation could be beneficial for consistent contouring. Joint delineation by a radiation oncologist and a nuclear medicine physician showed remarkable agreement and better concordance with the experts compared to other specialists. The relevant intermethod variability of the automatic algorithms underlines the need for further standardization and optimization in this field. (orig.) [de

  6. SIMULATION-BASED METHODOLOGY FOR PREDICTING FOOTBALL MATCH OUTCOMES CONSIDERING EXPERTS' OPINIONS: THE 2010 AND 2014 FOOTBALL WORLD CUP CASES

    OpenAIRE

    Louzada,Francisco; Suzuki,Adriano K.; Salasar,Luis E.B.; Ara,Anderson; Leite,José G.

    2015-01-01

    ABSTRACT In this paper we propose a simulation-based method for predicting the 2010 and 2014Football World Cup. Adopting a bayesian perspective, we modeled the number of goals of two opposing teams as a Poisson distribution whose mean is proportional to the relative technical level of opponents. FIFA ratings were taken as the measure of technical level of teams and experts' opinions about scores of matches were taken to construct prior distribution of parameters. Just before each round, tourn...

  7. Individual-based models in the analysis of disease transmission in plant production chains: An application to potato brown rot

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Breukers, A.; Kettenis, D.L.; Mourits, M.C.M.; Werf, van der W.; Oude Lansink, A.G.J.M.

    2006-01-01

    Spread of plant disease in production chains of planting material is a process of great economic importance, but has received little attention from plant disease epidemiologists. Disease control in production chains is therefore often based on rules of thumb and expert judgement by regulatory

  8. Identification and management of comorbidity in psoriatic arthritis: evidence- and expert-based recommendations from a multidisciplinary panel from Spain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torre-Alonso, Juan Carlos; Carmona, Loreto; Moreno, Mireia; Galíndez, Eva; Babío, Jesús; Zarco, Pedro; Linares, Luis; Collantes-Estevez, Eduardo; Barrial, Manuel Fernández; Hermosa, Juan Carlos; Coto, Pablo; Suárez, Carmen; Almodóvar, Raquel; Luelmo, Jesús; Castañeda, Santos; Gratacós, Jordi

    2017-08-01

    The objective is to establish recommendations, based on evidence and expert opinion, for the identification and management of comorbidities in patients with psoriatic arthritis (PsA). The following techniques were applied: discussion group, systematic review, and Delphi survey for agreement. A panel of professionals from four specialties defined the users, the sections of the document, possible recommendations, and what systematic reviews should be performed. A second discussion was held with the results of the systematic reviews. Recommendations were formulated in the second meeting and voted online from 1 (total disagreement) to 10 (total agreement). Agreement was considered if at least 70% voted ≥7. The level of evidence and grade of recommendation were assigned using the Oxford Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine guidance. The full document was critically appraised by the experts, and the project was supervised at all times by a methodologist. In a final step, the document was reviewed and commented by a patient and a health management specialist. Fourteen recommendations were produced, together with a checklist to facilitate the implementation. The items with the largest support from evidence were those related to cardiovascular disease and risk factors. The panel recommends paying special attention to obesity, smoking, and alcohol consumption, as they are all modifiable factors with an impact on treatment response or complications of PsA. Psychological and organizational aspects were also deemed important. We herein suggest practical recommendations for the management of comorbidities in PsA based on evidence and expert opinion.

  9. Factors influencing societal response of nanotechnology: an expert stakeholder analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gupta, Nidhi; Fischer, Arnout R. H.; van der Lans, Ivo A.; Frewer, Lynn J.

    2012-05-01

    Nanotechnology can be described as an emerging technology and, as has been the case with other emerging technologies such as genetic modification, different socio-psychological factors will potentially influence societal responses to its development and application. These factors will play an important role in how nanotechnology is developed and commercialised. This article aims to identify expert opinion on factors influencing societal response to applications of nanotechnology. Structured interviews with experts on nanotechnology from North West Europe were conducted using repertory grid methodology in conjunction with generalized Procrustes analysis to examine the psychological constructs underlying societal uptake of 15 key applications of nanotechnology drawn from different areas (e.g. medicine, agriculture and environment, chemical, food, military, sports, and cosmetics). Based on expert judgement, the main factors influencing societal response to different applications of nanotechnology will be the extent to which applications are perceived to be beneficial, useful, and necessary, and how 'real' and physically close to the end-user these applications are perceived to be by the public.

  10. Factors influencing societal response of nanotechnology: an expert stakeholder analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gupta, Nidhi, E-mail: nidhi.gupta@wur.nl; Fischer, Arnout R. H., E-mail: arnout.fischer@wur.nl; Lans, Ivo A. van der, E-mail: Ivo.vanderLans@wur.nl [Wageningen University, Marketing and Consumer Behaviour Group (Netherlands); Frewer, Lynn J., E-mail: lynn.frewer@newcastle.ac.uk [Newcastle University, School of Agriculture, Food and Rural Development (United Kingdom)

    2012-05-15

    Nanotechnology can be described as an emerging technology and, as has been the case with other emerging technologies such as genetic modification, different socio-psychological factors will potentially influence societal responses to its development and application. These factors will play an important role in how nanotechnology is developed and commercialised. This article aims to identify expert opinion on factors influencing societal response to applications of nanotechnology. Structured interviews with experts on nanotechnology from North West Europe were conducted using repertory grid methodology in conjunction with generalized Procrustes analysis to examine the psychological constructs underlying societal uptake of 15 key applications of nanotechnology drawn from different areas (e.g. medicine, agriculture and environment, chemical, food, military, sports, and cosmetics). Based on expert judgement, the main factors influencing societal response to different applications of nanotechnology will be the extent to which applications are perceived to be beneficial, useful, and necessary, and how 'real' and physically close to the end-user these applications are perceived to be by the public.

  11. Factors influencing societal response of nanotechnology: an expert stakeholder analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gupta, Nidhi; Fischer, Arnout R. H.; Lans, Ivo A. van der; Frewer, Lynn J.

    2012-01-01

    Nanotechnology can be described as an emerging technology and, as has been the case with other emerging technologies such as genetic modification, different socio-psychological factors will potentially influence societal responses to its development and application. These factors will play an important role in how nanotechnology is developed and commercialised. This article aims to identify expert opinion on factors influencing societal response to applications of nanotechnology. Structured interviews with experts on nanotechnology from North West Europe were conducted using repertory grid methodology in conjunction with generalized Procrustes analysis to examine the psychological constructs underlying societal uptake of 15 key applications of nanotechnology drawn from different areas (e.g. medicine, agriculture and environment, chemical, food, military, sports, and cosmetics). Based on expert judgement, the main factors influencing societal response to different applications of nanotechnology will be the extent to which applications are perceived to be beneficial, useful, and necessary, and how 'real' and physically close to the end-user these applications are perceived to be by the public.

  12. Measuring the quality of judgement and decision-making in nursing

    OpenAIRE

    Dowding, D; Thompson, C

    2003-01-01

    Aim. This paper discusses measurement of the quality of judgement and decision-making in nursing research. It examines theoretical and research issues surrounding how to measure judgement accuracy as a component of evaluating decision-making in nursing practice. Discussion. Judgement accuracy is discussed with reference to different methods of measurement, including comparing judgements with independent criteria and inter-judge approaches. Existing research on how judgement accuracy has been ...

  13. "I Think It's Low Self-Esteem". Teachers' Judgements: A Cautionary Tale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, David; Parker, Donna

    2006-01-01

    Although there is a debate about the importance of self-esteem in education, many primary teachers wish to help children who suffer from low self-esteem. However, in order to do this, we first have to identify such children. It is almost taken for granted that we can make quite accurate judgements based on the knowledge built up through day-to-day…

  14. Expert judgment based multi-criteria decision model to address uncertainties in risk assessment of nanotechnology-enabled food products

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Flari, Villie; Chaudhry, Qasim; Neslo, Rabin; Cooke, Roger

    2011-01-01

    Currently, risk assessment of nanotechnology-enabled food products is considered difficult due to the large number of uncertainties involved. We developed an approach which could address some of the main uncertainties through the use of expert judgment. Our approach employs a multi-criteria decision model, based on probabilistic inversion that enables capturing experts’ preferences in regard to safety of nanotechnology-enabled food products, and identifying their opinions in regard to the significance of key criteria that are important in determining the safety of such products. An advantage of these sample-based techniques is that they provide out-of-sample validation and therefore a robust scientific basis. This validation in turn adds predictive power to the model developed. We achieved out-of-sample validation in two ways: (1) a portion of the expert preference data was excluded from the model’s fitting and was then predicted by the model fitted on the remaining rankings and (2) a (partially) different set of experts generated new scenarios, using the same criteria employed in the model, and ranked them; their ranks were compared with ranks predicted by the model. The degree of validation in each method was less than perfect but reasonably substantial. The validated model we applied captured and modelled experts’ preferences regarding safety of hypothetical nanotechnology-enabled food products. It appears therefore that such an approach can provide a promising route to explore further for assessing the risk of nanotechnology-enabled food products.

  15. [Expert survey for Chinese medicine syndrome characteristics of different clinical types of coronary artery disease based on the Delphi method].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bi, Ying-fei; Mao, Jing-yuan; Wang, Xian-liang; Li, Bin; Hou, Ya-zhu; Zhao, Zhi-qiang; Ge, Yong-bin; Zhao, Gui-feng

    2014-10-01

    To carry out expert survey for traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) syndrome characteristics of different clinical types of coronary artery disease (CAD). By using Delphi method, we carried out two rounds of nationwide expert surveys for modern TCM characteristics of syndrome elements and syndrome types of CAD. Based on expert consensus, qi deficiency, blood stasis, phlegm turbidity, qi deficiency blood stasis, and intermingled phlegm and blood stasis are common TCM syndromes for different clinical types of CAD. Of them, qi stagnation, blood stasis, phlegm turbidity, heat accumulation, cold coagulation, yang deficiency, deficiency of both qi and yang were more often seen in patients with unstable angina than in those with stable angina. Qi deficiency, yin deficiency, and deficiency of both qi and yin were less seen. We could see more excess syndrome and less deficiency syndrome (such as qi deficiency, yin deficiency, etc.) in acute ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) than acute non-ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI). Qi deficiency, blood stasis, water retention, yang deficiency, phlegm turbidity, yin deficiency, Xin-qi deficiency, and qi deficiency blood stasis induced water retention are the most common TCM syndrome types of CAD heart failure (HF). Blood deficiency, yin deficiency, heat accumulation, deficiency of both Xin and Pi, deficiency of both qi and blood, deficiency of both qi and yin, yin deficiency and fire hyperactivity were more often seen in CAD arrhythmias. TCM syndrome distributions of different clinical types of CAD have common laws and individual characteristics. Results based on the expert consensus supplied evidence and support for clinical diagnosis and treatment of CAD.

  16. Group elicitations yield more consistent, yet more uncertain experts in understanding risks to ecosystem services in New Zealand bays

    KAUST Repository

    Singh, Gerald G.

    2017-08-02

    The elicitation of expert judgment is an important tool for assessment of risks and impacts in environmental management contexts, and especially important as decision-makers face novel challenges where prior empirical research is lacking or insufficient. Evidence-driven elicitation approaches typically involve techniques to derive more accurate probability distributions under fairly specific contexts. Experts are, however, prone to overconfidence in their judgements. Group elicitations with diverse experts can reduce expert overconfidence by allowing cross-examination and reassessment of prior judgements, but groups are also prone to uncritical

  17. Hospital-based expert model for health technology procurement planning in hospitals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miniati, R; Cecconi, G; Frosini, F; Dori, F; Regolini, J; Iadanza, E; Biffi Gentili, G

    2014-01-01

    Although in the last years technology innovation in healthcare brought big improvements in care level and patient quality of life, hospital complexity and management cost became higher. For this reason, necessity of planning for medical equipment procurement within hospitals is getting more and more important in order to sustainable provide appropriate technology for both routine activity and innovative procedures. In order to support hospital decision makers for technology procurement planning, an expert model was designed as reported in the following paper. It combines the most widely used approaches for technology evaluation by taking into consideration Health Technology Assessment (HTA) and Medical Equipment Replacement Model (MERM). The designing phases include a first definition of prioritization algorithms, then the weighting process through experts' interviews and a final step for the model validation that included both statistical testing and comparison with real decisions. In conclusion, the designed model was able to provide a semi-automated tool that through the use of multidisciplinary information is able to prioritize different requests of technology acquisition in hospitals. Validation outcomes improved the model accuracy and created different "user profiles" according to the specific needs of decision makers.

  18. Real time expert systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Asami, Tohru; Hashimoto, Kazuo; Yamamoto, Seiichi

    1992-01-01

    Recently, aiming at the application to the plant control for nuclear reactors and traffic and communication control, the research and the practical use of the expert system suitable to real time processing have become conspicuous. In this report, the condition for the required function to control the object that dynamically changes within a limited time is presented, and the technical difference between the real time expert system developed so as to satisfy it and the expert system of conventional type is explained with the actual examples and from theoretical aspect. The expert system of conventional type has the technical base in the problem-solving equipment originating in STRIPS. The real time expert system is applied to the fields accompanied by surveillance and control, to which conventional expert system is hard to be applied. The requirement for the real time expert system, the example of the real time expert system, and as the techniques of realizing real time processing, the realization of interruption processing, dispersion processing, and the mechanism of maintaining the consistency of knowledge are explained. (K.I.)

  19. Natural representation of the deduction; applying to the temporal reasoning for expert systems based on production rules

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baudin, Patrick

    1990-01-01

    The expert systems development within a real time context, requires both to master the necessary reasoning about the time as well as to master the necessary response time for reasoning. Although rigorous temporal logic formalisms exist, strategies for temporal reasoning are either incomplete or else imply unacceptable response times. The first part presents the logic formalism upon which is based the production system. This formalism contains a three-valued logic system with truth-valued matrix, and a deductive system with a formal system. It does a rigorous work for this no standard logic, where the notions of consistency and completeness can be studied. Its development supports itself on the will to formalise the reasoning used at the elaboration time of the strategies to make them more explicit as the natural deduction method. The second part proposes an extension for the source logic formalism to take explicitly the time into account. The approach proposed through 'TANIS', the prototype of such an expert system shell, using a natural reasoning application is proposed. It allows, at the generation time, the implementation within the expert system, of an adapted deduction strategy to the symbolic temporal reasoning which is complete and ease the determination of the response time. (author) [fr

  20. Quantifying characteristics of information-technology applications based on expert knowledge for detection of oestrus and mastitis in dairy cows.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Asseldonk, M A; Huirne, R B; Dijkhuizen, A A

    1998-10-09

    Expert opinions were elicited about the characteristics at the commercial-farm level of on-line information technology (IT) applications that are able to detect oestrus and mastitis in dairy cows. Since actual data of these characteristics are not available, judgmental data provided an alternative means to interpret the implications of research results for commercial farms. Applications included were activity measurement, milk-production measurement, electrical conductivity of quarter milk, automated concentrate feeders and milk-temperature measurement. Sensitivity and specificity of detection of oestrus (OD), clinical-mastitis (CMD) and subclinical-mastitis (SCMD) were ascertained. Conjoint-analysis was used to assess the effect of each application indirectly by decomposing the evaluated overall detection characteristics of a predefined number of IT combinations. The individual experts were consistent in evaluating the alternatives, but there was variation in estimates among experts. Estimations of the main effects of the applications and important first-order interactions were incorporated into the detection models. Implementation of all applications under study resulted in overall sensitivities and specificities of 82% and 90%, 73% and 87%, 58% and 82% for OD, CMD and SCMD, respectively. Further research is necessary that should take into account costs and benefits of the different detection systems based on the current status of farm performance (e.g. OD and mastitis incidence) and farm structure (e.g. farm size, years in operation of the milking parlour and parlour layout). Research to do this is currently in progress.

  1. Intelligent Control of Welding Gun Pose for Pipeline Welding Robot Based on Improved Radial Basis Function Network and Expert System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jingwen Tian

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Since the control system of the welding gun pose in whole-position welding is complicated and nonlinear, an intelligent control system of welding gun pose for a pipeline welding robot based on an improved radial basis function neural network (IRBFNN and expert system (ES is presented in this paper. The structure of the IRBFNN is constructed and the improved genetic algorithm is adopted to optimize the network structure. This control system makes full use of the characteristics of the IRBFNN and the ES. The ADXRS300 micro-mechanical gyro is used as the welding gun position sensor in this system. When the welding gun position is obtained, an appropriate pitch angle can be obtained through expert knowledge and the numeric reasoning capacity of the IRBFNN. ARM is used as the controller to drive the welding gun pitch angle step motor in order to adjust the pitch angle of the welding gun in real-time. The experiment results show that the intelligent control system of the welding gun pose using the IRBFNN and expert system is feasible and it enhances the welding quality. This system has wide prospects for application.

  2. Expert Witness

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Adele

    demonstrated that, on the balance of probabilities, a correct diagnosis at that time would not have altered the course of the illness. Quantum. Where it appears likely that the claimant may have a strong case on both breach of duty and causation, MPS may seek the opinion of a quantum expert to assist in determining the size.

  3. Expert and novice facilitated modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tavella, Elena; Papadopoulos, Thanos

    2015-01-01

    the behaviour of one expert and two novice facilitators during a Viable System Model workshop. The findings suggest common facilitation patterns in the behaviour of experts and novices. This contrasts literature claiming that experts and novices behave and use their available knowledge differently......This paper provides an empirical study based on action research in which expert and novice facilitators in facilitated modelling workshops are compared. There is limited empirical research analysing the differences between expert and novice facilitators. Aiming to address this gap we study...... and facilitation strategies in contexts in which external, expert facilitation is not always possible are also discussed, and limitations of this study are provided....

  4. Prototype of an expert system based nuclear power plant information systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vegh, J.; Bodnar, M.; Buerger, L.; Tanyi, M.; Sefesik, F.

    1994-01-01

    The components and functioning of the GPCS information system applicable for intelligent process monitoring and alarm generation in a WWER-440 type nuclear power plant are described. The prototype system has been developed by using the G2 expert system, plant measurements were simulated by a WWER-440 compact simulator and by archive replay sessions performed by the VERONA-u core monitoring system. The GPCS contains an object oriented description of the basic subsystems of the plant and concentrates on the fast evaluation/displaying of measurements and alarms. The high-level information reflecting actual plant safety status is synthesized from primary measured data, by forming global alarms and by evaluating logical diagrams. (author). 10 refs, 4 figs

  5. Limits to global and Australian temperature change this century based on expert judgment of climate sensitivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grose, Michael R.; Colman, Robert; Bhend, Jonas; Moise, Aurel F.

    2017-05-01

    The projected warming of surface air temperature at the global and regional scale by the end of the century is directly related to emissions and Earth's climate sensitivity. Projections are typically produced using an ensemble of climate models such as CMIP5, however the range of climate sensitivity in models doesn't cover the entire range considered plausible by expert judgment. Of particular interest from a risk-management perspective is the lower impact outcome associated with low climate sensitivity and the low-probability, high-impact outcomes associated with the top of the range. Here we scale climate model output to the limits of expert judgment of climate sensitivity to explore these limits. This scaling indicates an expanded range of projected change for each emissions pathway, including a much higher upper bound for both the globe and Australia. We find the possibility of exceeding a warming of 2 °C since pre-industrial is projected under high emissions for every model even scaled to the lowest estimate of sensitivity, and is possible under low emissions under most estimates of sensitivity. Although these are not quantitative projections, the results may be useful to inform thinking about the limits to change until the sensitivity can be more reliably constrained, or this expanded range of possibilities can be explored in a more formal way. When viewing climate projections, accounting for these low-probability but high-impact outcomes in a risk management approach can complement the focus on the likely range of projections. They can also highlight the scale of the potential reduction in range of projections, should tight constraints on climate sensitivity be established by future research.

  6. Land Degradation Monitoring in the Ordos Plateau of China Using an Expert Knowledge and BP-ANN-Based Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yaojie Yue

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Land degradation monitoring is of vital importance to provide scientific information for promoting sustainable land utilization. This paper presents an expert knowledge and BP-ANN-based approach to detect and monitor land degradation in an effort to overcome the deficiencies of image classification and vegetation index-based approaches. The proposed approach consists of three generic steps: (1 extraction of knowledge on the relationship between land degradation degree and predisposing factors, which are NDVI and albedo, from domain experts; (2 establishment of a land degradation detecting model based on the BP-ANN algorithm; and (3 land degradation dynamic analysis. A comprehensive analysis was conducted on the development of land degradation in the Ordos Plateau of China in 1990, 2000 and 2010. The results indicate that the proposed approach is reliable for monitoring land degradation, with an overall accuracy of 91.2%. From 1990–2010, a reverse trend of land degradation is observed in Ordos Plateau. Regions with relatively high land degradation dynamic were mostly located in the northeast of Ordos Plateau. Additionally, most of the regions have transferred from a hot spot of land degradation to a less changed area. It is suggested that land utilization optimization plays a key role for effective land degradation control. However, it should be highlighted that the goals of such strategies should aim at the main negative factors causing land degradation, and the land use type and its quantity must meet the demand of population and be reconciled with natural conditions. Results from this case study suggest that the expert knowledge and BP-ANN-based approach is effective in mapping land degradation.

  7. Developing a HACCP-like system for improving animal health and welfare in organic egg production - based on an expert panel analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hegelund, Lene; Sørensen, Jan Tind

    2007-01-01

    In the process of developing a generic Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Point (HACCP)-like system for securing animal health and welfare in organic egg production, an expert panel analysis was used to perform the initial hazard analysis. Eighteen advisers and researchers in organic egg...... production were included in the expert panel. In a series of four questionnaires, the expert panel first scored 34 health and welfare problems seen in Danish organic egg production. Based on scorings of severity and occurrence, 10 problems were selected for further analysis. The experts subsequently...... specific systems. An expert panel analysis based on questionnaires was a useful tool during the first steps of developing a HACCP plan, conducting a hazard analysis and suggesting control points. However, care should be taken regarding the panel's size and fields of expertise in order to assure...

  8. Expert judgement on enrichment materials for pigs validates preliminary RICHPIG model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bracke, M.B.M.; Zonderland, J.J.; Bleumer, E.J.B.

    2007-01-01

    EC directive 2001/93/EC states that pigs must have permanent access to a sufficient quantity of material to enable proper investigation and manipulation activities. This directive requires further interpretation. In order to facilitate the further implementation of the directive into national, Dutch

  9. On the use of expert judgement in the qualification of risk assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Rosqvist, Tony

    2003-01-01

    Väitöskirjan tavoitteena on kehittää riskianalyysiä menetelmänä siten, että asiantuntija-arvioiden rooli täsmentyy ja laajenee sekä riskianalyysin laatu paranee. Väitöskirjan erityisenä kimmokkeena on ollut riskianalyysien lisääntynyt tarve merenkulun turvallisuuden kehittämisessä Suomen meriliikenteessä ja sen soveltamisessa havaitut menetelmälliset puutteet. Tutkimuksessa on kehitetty riskianalyysiin liittyvien epävarmuuksien määrittelyjä sekä niiden systemaattista arviointia. Tutkimuks...

  10. Expert Systems: What Is an Expert System?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duval, Beverly K.; Main, Linda

    1994-01-01

    Describes expert systems and discusses their use in libraries. Highlights include parts of an expert system; expert system shells; an example of how to build an expert system; a bibliography of 34 sources of information on expert systems in libraries; and a list of 10 expert system shells used in libraries. (Contains five references.) (LRW)

  11. Giving “Best Advice”: Proposing a Framework of Community Pharmacist Professional Judgement Formation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cicely Roche

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Community pharmacy is often portrayed as a marriage of professional and business roles in a commercial domain, thereby creating a need for, and value in, pursuing the development of professional competencies for use in the community pharmacy business. In context, professional judgement is the application of knowledge, skills and attitudes (competencies which, when applied to situations where there is no one or obvious right or wrong way to proceed, gives a patient a better likelihood of a favourable outcome than if a lay-person had made the decision. The challenge for community pharmacists is that professional judgement formation is influenced by professional, commercial and personal criteria with inherent interconnected challenges. In community pharmacy practice in the Republic of Ireland (ROI, this challenge is compounded by the fact that advice is normally provided in an environment where the pharmacist provides professional advice “for free” and then may offer to sell the patient a product or service based on that advice, an activity which amounts to a commercial transaction. While there is currently no evidence to confirm whether or not these professional judgement influences are resolved successfully, their very existence poses a risk that their resolution “in the wrong way” could compromise patient outcomes or professional standing following the delivery of pharmacy services. It is therefore apparent that a community pharmacist requires skills in identifying and analysing professional/commercial/personal influences in order to appreciate the criteria which may affect both parties’ (patient and pharmacist decision making. By contemplating the interaction between the pharmacist’s professional competencies and the individual influences on that pharmacist, we can consider the enhancement of professional competencies that underpin the “best” advice being offered to the patient, regardless of whether that advice is offered in

  12. A conceptual framework to facilitate clinical judgement in nursing: A methodological perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna C. van Graan

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available The South African health care and education systems are challenged to provide independent, critical thinking nurses who can cope with diversity in a creative way and define their role in a complex, uncertain, rapidly changing health care environment. Quality clinical judgement is an imperative characteristic that newly qualified professional nurses should possess. To accommodate these needs, SANC in line with the SAQA Act, advocated the development of teaching and learning strategies to balance theory and practice opportunities together with an outcome-based, student centred approach and appropriate clinical supervision. This resulted in a positive outcome to facilitate the integration/fusion of theory and practice. The purpose of this study was to synthesise a teaching–learning strategy for creating an enabling learning environment to facilitate clinical judgement in South African undergraduate nursing students. The proposed teaching–learning strategyis grounded in modern-day constructivist approach of learning. The conceptual or theoretical framework of this study aimed to link the central concepts that were identified from the conclusions of four (4 strategic objectives of the two preceding phases of the study into a new structure of meaning that served as a basis for the proposed strategy. The implementation of the proposed action plan to achieve the stated strategic objectives should empower the relevant role players to facilitate clinical judgement in undergraduate nursing students and thereby promote autonomous and accountable nursing care.

  13. Use of expert judgment in the development and evaluation of risk-based inservice testing strategies for pumps and valves

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McAllister, W.J.; Perdue, R.K.; Balkey, K.R.; Closky, N.B. [and others

    1996-12-01

    This paper describes a rigorous approach for quantitatively evaluating inservice testing effectiveness that evolved from two pilot plant studies. These studies prototyped methodologies for designing and selecting inservice testing (IST) strategies in a manner structured to insure that the targeted components will perform their required safety functions while minimizing life cycle inservice testing costs. The paper concentrates on the use of expert judgment in developing test effectiveness measures that move risk-based methods beyond ranking to optimization of plant IST programs. Selected results for check valves and pumps are shown to illustrate the practical significance of the approach.

  14. Use of expert judgment in the development and evaluation of risk-based inservice testing strategies for pumps and valves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McAllister, W.J.; Perdue, R.K.; Balkey, K.R.; Closky, N.B.

    1996-01-01

    This paper describes a rigorous approach for quantitatively evaluating inservice testing effectiveness that evolved from two pilot plant studies. These studies prototyped methodologies for designing and selecting inservice testing (IST) strategies in a manner structured to insure that the targeted components will perform their required safety functions while minimizing life cycle inservice testing costs. The paper concentrates on the use of expert judgment in developing test effectiveness measures that move risk-based methods beyond ranking to optimization of plant IST programs. Selected results for check valves and pumps are shown to illustrate the practical significance of the approach

  15. The effect of case-based discussion of topics with experts on learners' opinions: implications for spinal education and training.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berjano, Pedro; Villafañe, Jorge Hugo; Vanacker, Gerard; Cecchinato, Riccardo; Ismael, Maryem; Gunzburg, Robert; Marruzzo, Daniele; Lamartina, Claudio

    2017-10-01

    This investigation aimed to examine the extent to which case-based discussion with experts could influence the audience's opinions on the treatment of patients during a continuing medical education event for spine surgeons. We conducted a prospective controlled crossover study of 90 surgeons. During a continuing medical education activity using case-based discussion, quiz questions were used which asked participants (attendants and faculty group) their opinions on the best choices about diagnosis and treatment in a number of cases. No answer was considered correct, but we evaluated the number of participants choosing each specific answer among a number of valid options. Quiz questions were collected with an automated response system at the entry and at the end of each case discussion. Change in participant's opinions was estimated from the change in the preferred answers between the entry and exit quizzes. Chi-square analysis was performed to determine significance. Sixty-two attendants out of eighty three (75%) and six faculties out of twelve (50%) responded to the survey. After the case discussion, 68.2% (p < 0.04, Chi-square test) of the attendants changed their opinion on the appropriate treatment. The faculty answers, however, showed no significant change in opinions regarding the identification of the appropriate treatment. On the basis of our results, case-based discussion driven by experts, as a form of teaching, has a measurable effect in terms of changes in the learners' opinions.

  16. Physiotherapy in the intensive care unit: an evidence-based, expert driven, practical statement and rehabilitation recommendations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sommers, Juultje; Engelbert, Raoul HH; Dettling-Ihnenfeldt, Daniela; Gosselink, Rik; Spronk, Peter E; Nollet, Frans; van der Schaaf, Marike

    2015-01-01

    Objective: To develop evidence-based recommendations for effective and safe diagnostic assessment and intervention strategies for the physiotherapy treatment of patients in intensive care units. Methods: We used the EBRO method, as recommended by the ‘Dutch Evidence Based Guideline Development Platform’ to develop an ‘evidence statement for physiotherapy in the intensive care unit’. This method consists of the identification of clinically relevant questions, followed by a systematic literature search, and summary of the evidence with final recommendations being moderated by feedback from experts. Results: Three relevant clinical domains were identified by experts: criteria to initiate treatment; measures to assess patients; evidence for effectiveness of treatments. In a systematic literature search, 129 relevant studies were identified and assessed for methodological quality and classified according to the level of evidence. The final evidence statement consisted of recommendations on eight absolute and four relative contra-indications to mobilization; a core set of nine specific instruments to assess impairments and activity restrictions; and six passive and four active effective interventions, with advice on (a) physiological measures to observe during treatment (with stopping criteria) and (b) what to record after the treatment. Conclusions: These recommendations form a protocol for treating people in an intensive care unit, based on best available evidence in mid-2014. PMID:25681407

  17. Does an expert-based evaluation allow us to go beyond the Impact Factor? Experiences from building a ranking of national journals in Poland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kulczycki, Emanuel; Rozkosz, Ewa A

    2017-01-01

    This article discusses the Polish Journal Ranking, which is used in the research evaluation system in Poland. In 2015, the ranking, which represents all disciplines, allocated 17,437 journals into three lists: A, B, and C. The B list constitutes a ranking of Polish journals that are indexed neither in the Web of Science nor the European Reference Index for the Humanities. This ranking was built by evaluating journals in three dimensions: formal, bibliometric, and expert-based. We have analysed data on 2035 Polish journals from the B list. Our study aims to determine how an expert-based evaluation influenced the results of final evaluation. In our study, we used structural equation modelling, which is regression based, and we designed three pairs of theoretical models for three fields of science: (1) humanities, (2) social sciences, and (3) engineering, natural sciences, and medical sciences. Each pair consisted of the full model and the reduced model (i.e., the model without the expert-based evaluation). Our analysis revealed that the multidimensional evaluation of local journals should not rely only on the bibliometric indicators, which are based on the Web of Science or Scopus. Moreover, we have shown that the expert-based evaluation plays a major role in all fields of science. We conclude with recommendations that the formal evaluation should be reduced to verifiable parameters and that the expert-based evaluation should be based on common guidelines for the experts.

  18. On Preparing for More Subjective Judgements: RAE2008

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnston, Ron

    2005-01-01

    Ever since the first UK Research Assessment Exercise (RAE) was held in the mid-1980s panels of academics have had to make subjective judgements about the quality of work submitted by institutions. In preparation for the 2008 RAE, the four Funding Councils (Higher Education Funding Council for England, Scottish Higher Education Funding Council,…

  19. The Role of Age in Life Satisfaction Judgements among Educated ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study investigated the role of age in life satisfaction judgements among educated adults in Ado – Ekiti. Employing a sample of 544 participants of educated adults in the age cohorts of 20 – 39 years (276), 40 – 59 years (179), and 60+ years (89), selected through a multi-stage sampling, and administering on them Life ...

  20. First Impressions: Gait Cues Drive Reliable Trait Judgements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thoresen, John C.; Vuong, Quoc C.; Atkinson, Anthony P.

    2012-01-01

    Personality trait attribution can underpin important social decisions and yet requires little effort; even a brief exposure to a photograph can generate lasting impressions. Body movement is a channel readily available to observers and allows judgements to be made when facial and body appearances are less visible; e.g., from great distances.…

  1. Developing Consistency in Teacher Judgement Formation through Online Meeting Centres

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adie, Lenore

    2010-01-01

    This paper investigates the complex interactions that occur as teachers meet online to justify and negotiate their assessment judgements of student work across relatively large and geographically dispersed populations. Drawing from sociocultural theories of learning and technology, the technology is positioned as playing a role in either…

  2. The role of psychosocial variables in physician judgement of pain ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Objective: The current study aimed to determine the extent to which physicians take psychosocial factors into account when making pain-related judgements of disability. Subjects and Method: 228 chronic pain patients completed the West Haven-Yale Multidimensional Pain Inventory (WHYMPI), while 69 completed both this ...

  3. Effects of disgust priming and disgust sensitivity on moral judgement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olatunji, Bunmi O; Puncochar, Bieke David

    2016-04-01

    Although prior research suggests that disgust results in more severe moral judgements, the extent to which awareness of disgust cues influences moral judgements remains unclear. To address this gap in the literature, participants in this study were randomised to subliminal or conscious awareness of disgust and neutral images prior to the description and evaluation of moral transgressions. No differences were found in moral severity ratings for transgressions that were presented after neutral and disgust images in the subliminal condition. However, moral severity ratings for moderate transgressions that were presented after neutral images were significantly higher than morality ratings of transgressions presented after disgust images in the conscious condition. Subsequent analysis also revealed a significant relationship between individual differences in disgust propensity and perceived immorality of moderate transgressions, especially in the conscious condition. The finding of higher moral severity ratings for moderate transgressions presented after neutral images in the conscious condition is inconsistent with research showing that disgust uniquely influences moral judgements. This research highlights the importance of further research examining the role of methodological considerations that may moderate the influence of disgust on moral judgements. © 2015 International Union of Psychological Science.

  4. Judgements about Knowledge: Searching for Factors that Influence Their Validity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mengelkamp, Christoph; Bannert, Maria

    2009-01-01

    Introduction: Research in the field of metacomprehension often uses the accuracy of judgements of own knowledge as a measure of monitoring which is a central component of metacognition. One aim of this study is to investigate if the accuracy above chance usually found in studies using traditional texts can be replicated with hypermedia. More…

  5. Magnitude and accuracy differences between judgements of remembering and forgetting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serra, Michael J; England, Benjamin D

    2012-01-01

    Metacognition researchers have recently begun to examine the effects of framing judgements of learning (JOLs) in terms of forgetting (rather than remembering) on the judgements' magnitude and accuracy. Although a promising new direction for the study of metamemory, initial studies have yielded inconsistent results. To help resolve these inconsistencies, in four experiments we had college students (N = 434) study paired associates and make JOLs framed in terms of either remembering or forgetting over two study-test trials. Our goals were to further document the effects of framing on the magnitude and accuracy of JOLs and to consider explanations for why specific patterns tend to emerge. The present experiments provide evidence that (a) judgements of forgetting are psychologically anchored at the midpoint of the JOL scale, whereas judgements of remembering are anchored at a lower point, (b) differences in absolute accuracy (calibration) by frame are largely artefactual and stem from differences in anchoring, (c) differences in JOL magnitude and absolute accuracy by frame do not obtain when memory cues are salient to participants, and (d) a forget frame impairs the relative accuracy (resolution) of JOLs across trials by reducing participants' reliance on cues such as memory for past test performance.

  6. using subjective judgement to determine the validity of a tutorial

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2008-11-21

    Nov 21, 2008 ... 4. 0. 9. Validity of a tutorial performance-evaluation instrument. USING SUBJECTIVE JUDGEMENT TO DETERMINE THE VALIDITY OF A TUTORIAL. PERFORMANCE-EVALUATION INSTRUMENT. Authors: Judith C. Bruce1. Melanie L. Lack1. Affiliations: 1Department of Nursing. Education, University of.

  7. Viewing the triarchic model of psychopathy through general personality and expert-based lenses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Joshua D; Lamkin, Joanna; Maples-Keller, Jessica L; Lynam, Donald R

    2016-07-01

    The recently articulated and increasingly prominent triarchic model of psychopathy (TPM) posits the existence of 3 components of meanness, disinhibition, and boldness. In the current studies, 2 issues are addressed. First, although typically conceptualized in isolation from trait models of personality, the TPM components may be manifestations of basic personality dimensions. In Study 1 (N = 335), we test whether basic traits from the five-factor model (FFM) can account for the TPM's psychopathy domains. The FFM domains (Mean R2 = .65) and facets (Mean R2 = .75) accounted for substantial variance in the TPM domains, suggesting that the TPM can be viewed as being nested within a broader trait framework. Second, there is disagreement about which personality components are necessary and sufficient for psychopathy. In Study 2, we examine this issue using a between subject design in which expert raters (N = 46) were asked to view an FFM profile of the TPM domains and total score derived in Study 1 and rate the degree to which an individual with this profile would manifest symptoms of psychopathy, Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (5th ed.; DSM-5) personality disorders, and a variety of other psychiatric disorders. As expected, the profile associated with boldness was rated as less emblematic of psychopathy and related disorders (e.g., antisocial personality disorder; externalizing disorders) than the profiles for meanness or the total TPM score. These findings contribute to an ongoing debate addressing the degree to which domains like those articulated in the TPM are necessary or sufficient for the construct of psychopathy. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

  8. An expert-based model for selecting the most suitable substrate material type for antenna circuits

    Science.gov (United States)

    AL-Oqla, Faris M.; Omar, Amjad A.

    2015-06-01

    Quality and properties of microwave circuits depend on all the circuit components. One of these components is the substrate. The process of substrate material selection is a decision-making problem that involves multicriteria with objectives that are diverse and conflicting. The aim of this work was to select the most suitable substrate material type to be used in antennas in the microwave frequency range that gives best performance and reliability of the substrate. For this purpose, a model was built to ease the decision-making that includes hierarchical alternatives and criteria. The substrate material type options considered were limited to fiberglass-reinforced epoxy laminates (FR4 εr = 4.8), aluminium (III) oxide (alumina εr = 9.6), gallium arsenide III-V compound (GaAs εr = 12.8) and PTFE composites reinforced with glass microfibers (Duroid εr = 2.2-2.3). To assist in building the model and making decisions, the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) was used. The decision-making process revealed that alumina substrate material type was the most suitable choice for the antennas in the microwave frequency range that yields best performance and reliability. In addition, both the size of the circuit and the loss tangent of the substrates were found to be the most contributing subfactors in the antenna circuit specifications criterion. Experimental assessments were conducted utilising The Expert Choice™ software. The judgments were tested and found to be precise, consistent and justifiable, and the marginal inconsistency values were found to be very narrow. A sensitivity analysis was also presented to demonstrate the confidence in the drawn conclusions.

  9. Text mining and natural language processing approaches for automatic categorization of lay requests to web-based expert forums.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Himmel, Wolfgang; Reincke, Ulrich; Michelmann, Hans Wilhelm

    2009-07-22

    Both healthy and sick people increasingly use electronic media to obtain medical information and advice. For example, Internet users may send requests to Web-based expert forums, or so-called "ask the doctor" services. To automatically classify lay requests to an Internet medical expert forum using a combination of different text-mining strategies. We first manually classified a sample of 988 requests directed to a involuntary childlessness forum on the German website "Rund ums Baby" ("Everything about Babies") into one or more of 38 categories belonging to two dimensions ("subject matter" and "expectations"). After creating start and synonym lists, we calculated the average Cramer's V statistic for the association of each word with each category. We also used principle component analysis and singular value decomposition as further text-mining strategies. With these measures we trained regression models and determined, on the basis of best regression models, for any request the probability of belonging to each of the 38 different categories, with a cutoff of 50%. Recall and precision of a test sample were calculated as a measure of quality for the automatic classification. According to the manual classification of 988 documents, 102 (10%) documents fell into the category "in vitro fertilization (IVF)," 81 (8%) into the category "ovulation," 79 (8%) into "cycle," and 57 (6%) into "semen analysis." These were the four most frequent categories in the subject matter dimension (consisting of 32 categories). The expectation dimension comprised six categories; we classified 533 documents (54%) as "general information" and 351 (36%) as a wish for "treatment recommendations." The generation of indicator variables based on the chi-square analysis and Cramer's V proved to be the best approach for automatic classification in about half of the categories. In combination with the two other approaches, 100% precision and 100% recall were realized in 18 (47%) out of the 38

  10. REGIONAL ASPECTS OF SELF-REGULATION IN PUBLIC UTILITIES SECTOR (BASED ON THE SURVEY OF EXPERT OPINION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natalia Vladimirovna Razgonnikova

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available ‘Regional Aspects of Self-Regulation in Public Utilities Sector (Based on the Survey of Expert Opinion’ deals with management of present-day housing and utilities sector. It is the first study to look at the introduction of a system of regional management in the public utilities sector of the Astrakhan Region which is taken as an example. The article is based on a survey of expert opinion the aim of which was to record the views of professionals on the concept of self-regulation in the regional housing and utilities sector. The article is important as it provides practical recommendations on the introduction of self-regulation in housing and utilities sector derived from the data acquired in the survey. It could be of use to both regional authorities and representatives of management companies and condominiums. The following conclusions were derived from the survey: creating regional self-regulation organizations could help to improve the quality of public utility services due to the development of competitive environment; increasing the financial responsibility of managing companies would improve their relationship with energy resources suppliers (heating, water supply, electricity. The creation of a mechanism that would allow public and professional debates on normative legal acts regarding housing and public utilities sector would improve communications within the sector.DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.12731/2218-7405-2013-8-45

  11. You get what you need: an examination of purpose- based inheritance reasoning in undergraduates, preschoolers, and biological experts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ware, Elizabeth A; Gelman, Susan A

    2014-03-01

    This set of seven experiments examines reasoning about the inheritance and acquisition of physical properties in preschoolers, undergraduates, and biology experts. Participants (N = 390) received adoption vignettes in which a baby animal was born to one parent but raised by a biologically unrelated parent, and they judged whether the offspring would have the same property as the birth or rearing parent. For each vignette, the animal parents had contrasting values on a physical property dimension (e.g., the birth parent had a short tail; the rearing parent had a long tail). Depending on the condition, the distinct properties had distinct functions (“function-predictive”) were associated with distinct habitats (“habitat-predictive”), or had no implications (“non-predictive”). Undergraduates' bias to view properties as inherited from the birth parent was reduced in the function- and habitat-predictive conditions. This result indicates a purpose-based view of inheritance, whereby animals can acquire properties that serve a purpose in their environment. This stance was not found in experts or preschoolers. We discuss the results in terms of how undergraduates' purpose-based inheritance reasoning develops and relates to larger-scale misconceptions about Darwinian evolutionary processes, and implications for biology education.

  12. Reliability-Based and Cost-Oriented Product Optimization Integrating Fuzzy Reasoning Petri Nets, Interval Expert Evaluation and Cultural-Based DMOPSO Using Crowding Distance Sorting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhaoxi Hong

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available In reliability-based and cost-oriented product optimization, the target product reliability is apportioned to subsystems or components to achieve the maximum reliability and minimum cost. Main challenges to conducting such optimization design lie in how to simultaneously consider subsystem division, uncertain evaluation provided by experts for essential factors, and dynamic propagation of product failure. To overcome these problems, a reliability-based and cost-oriented product optimization method integrating fuzzy reasoning Petri net (FRPN, interval expert evaluation and cultural-based dynamic multi-objective particle swarm optimization (DMOPSO using crowding distance sorting is proposed in this paper. Subsystem division is performed based on failure decoupling, and then subsystem weights are calculated with FRPN reflecting dynamic and uncertain failure propagation, as well as interval expert evaluation considering six essential factors. A mathematical model of reliability-based and cost-oriented product optimization is established, and the cultural-based DMOPSO with crowding distance sorting is utilized to obtain the optimized design scheme. The efficiency and effectiveness of the proposed method are demonstrated by the numerical example of the optimization design for a computer numerically controlled (CNC machine tool.

  13. Accuracy of acute burns diagnosis made using smartphones and tablets: a questionnaire-based study among medical experts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blom, Lisa; Boissin, Constance; Allorto, Nikki; Wallis, Lee; Hasselberg, Marie; Laflamme, Lucie

    2017-12-13

    Remote assistance for burns by medical experts can support nurses and general physicians in emergency care with diagnostic and management advice. Previous studies indicate a high diagnostic accuracy based on images viewed on a computer screen, but whether image-based analysis by experts using handheld devices is accurate remains to be determined. A review of patient data from eight emergency centres in the Western Cape, South Africa, revealed 10 typical cases of burns commonly seen in children and adults. A web-based questionnaire was created with 51 images of burns representing those cases. Burns specialists from two countries (South Africa and Sweden (n = 8 and 7 respectively)) and emergency medicine specialists from South Africa (n = 11) were contacted by email and asked to assess each burn's total body surface area (TBSA) and depth using a smartphone or tablet. The accuracy and inter-rater reliability of the assessments were measured using intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC), both for all cases aggregated and for paediatric and adult burn cases separately. Eight participants repeated the questionnaire on a computer and intra-rater reliability was calculated. The assessments of TBSA are of high accuracy all specialists aggregated (ICC = 0.82 overall and 0.81 for both child and adult cases separately) and remain high for all three participant groups separately. The burn depth assessments have low accuracy all specialists aggregated, with ICCs of 0.53 overall, 0.61 for child and 0.46 for adult cases. The most accurate assessments of depth are among South African burns specialists (reaching acceptable for child cases); the other two groups' ICCs are low in all instances. Computer-based assessments were similar to those made on handheld devices. As was the case for computer-based studies, burns images viewed on handheld devices may be a suitable means of seeking expert advice even with limited additional information when it comes to burn size but

  14. Defining the optimal design of the inflammatory bowel disease multidisciplinary team: results from a multicentre qualitative expert-based study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morar, Pritesh; Read, Jamie; Arora, Sonal; Hart, Ailsa; Warusavitarne, Janindra; Green, James; Sevdalis, Nick; Edwards, Cathryn; Faiz, Omar

    2015-10-01

    To elicit expert views to define the aims, optimal design, format and function of an inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) multidisciplinary team (MDT) with the overall purpose of enhancing the quality of MDT-driven care within an IBD service provision. This study was a multicentre, prospective, qualitative study using a standard semistructured interview methodology. A multidisciplinary sample of 28 semistructured interviews of which there are six consultant colorectal surgeons, six IBD nurse specialists, seven consultant gastroenterologists, five consultant radiologists and four consultant histopathologists. Participants were recruited from 10 hospitals, which were a mixture of community hospitals and specialist IBD centres between June and October 2013. Experts argued that the main goal of MDT-driven IBD care is to improve patient outcomes via sharing collective expertise in a formalised manner. Themes regarding the necessary requirements for an IBD MDT to occur included good attendance, proactive contribution, a need to define core members and appropriate and functional computer facilities. Emergent themes regarding the logistics of an effective IBD MDT included an eligibility criterion for case selection and discussion and appropriate scheduling. Themes regarding the overall design of the IBD MDT included a 'hub-and-spoke' model versus a 'single-centre' model. Defining key elements for an optimal design format for the IBD MDT is necessary to ensure quality of care and reduce variation in care standards. This study has produced a set of expert-based standards that can be used to structure the IBD MDT. These standards now require larger scale validation and consensus prior to becoming a practical guideline for the management of IBD care.

  15. [Variability of physician judgements in school entry examinations].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geyer, S; Wedegärtner, F

    2007-11-01

    Data from school entry examinations were used for studying the variability of judgements between physicians performing the examinations. Two diagnoses were subject to examination: 1) Obesity, because an external criterion was available for this one. The medical classifications were compared with automated classifications using an external criterion. 2) Language anomalies, because these are the most frequent diagnoses. No external criterion had been available, thus differences within the group of examining physicians were considered. Data from all school entry examinations performed in the city of Hannover between 1998 and 2001 were used. Altogether 14 physicians were involved, but due to low case numbers the data of two had to be omitted. The analyses are based on 18,303 datasets. For obesity the agreement rates between physicians' and automatically generated diagnoses were ascertained by calculating sensitivity and specificity. Comparisons of differences between physicians with respect to chances of getting a diagnosis were performed using logistic regression. The sensitivity of classifying body weights above the 75 (th) percentile correctly was 0.64 over all years of observation. The respective sensitivity of classifying children with body weights above the 97 (th) percentile was 0.70. Considerable differences over the four years of observation occurred. For performing logistic regressions, the diagnoses of the physician with the smallest difference from an external criterion were used as standard of comparison. The diagnoses of the physician with the largest difference yielded an OR=0.08. The overall variability within the group of examining physicians was large. With respect to language anomalies, although considerable, the within-group differences were smaller. The largest odds ratio in this case was OR=0.40. Diagnoses from school entry examinations vary according to the physicians involved. Thus the data should not be used for epidemiological studies. In

  16. Evolving MCDM Applications Using Hybrid Expert-Based ISM and DEMATEL Models: An Example of Sustainable Ecotourism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chuang, Huan-Ming

    2013-01-01

    Ecological degradation is an escalating global threat. Increasingly, people are expressing awareness and priority for concerns about environmental problems surrounding them. Environmental protection issues are highlighted. An appropriate information technology tool, the growing popular social network system (virtual community, VC), facilitates public education and engagement with applications for existent problems effectively. Particularly, the exploration of related involvement behavior of VC member engagement is an interesting topic. Nevertheless, member engagement processes comprise interrelated sub-processes that reflect an interactive experience within VCs as well as the value co-creation model. To address the top-focused ecotourism VCs, this study presents an application of a hybrid expert-based ISM model and DEMATEL model based on multi-criteria decision making tools to investigate the complex multidimensional and dynamic nature of member engagement. Our research findings provide insightful managerial implications and suggest that the viral marketing of ecotourism protection is concerned with practitioners and academicians alike. PMID:24453902

  17. Evolving MCDM Applications Using Hybrid Expert-Based ISM and DEMATEL Models: An Example of Sustainable Ecotourism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huan-Ming Chuang

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Ecological degradation is an escalating global threat. Increasingly, people are expressing awareness and priority for concerns about environmental problems surrounding them. Environmental protection issues are highlighted. An appropriate information technology tool, the growing popular social network system (virtual community, VC, facilitates public education and engagement with applications for existent problems effectively. Particularly, the exploration of related involvement behavior of VC member engagement is an interesting topic. Nevertheless, member engagement processes comprise interrelated sub-processes that reflect an interactive experience within VCs as well as the value co-creation model. To address the top-focused ecotourism VCs, this study presents an application of a hybrid expert-based ISM model and DEMATEL model based on multi-criteria decision making tools to investigate the complex multidimensional and dynamic nature of member engagement. Our research findings provide insightful managerial implications and suggest that the viral marketing of ecotourism protection is concerned with practitioners and academicians alike.

  18. Evolving MCDM applications using hybrid expert-based ISM and DEMATEL models: an example of sustainable ecotourism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chuang, Huan-Ming; Lin, Chien-Ku; Chen, Da-Ren; Chen, You-Shyang

    2013-01-01

    Ecological degradation is an escalating global threat. Increasingly, people are expressing awareness and priority for concerns about environmental problems surrounding them. Environmental protection issues are highlighted. An appropriate information technology tool, the growing popular social network system (virtual community, VC), facilitates public education and engagement with applications for existent problems effectively. Particularly, the exploration of related involvement behavior of VC member engagement is an interesting topic. Nevertheless, member engagement processes comprise interrelated sub-processes that reflect an interactive experience within VCs as well as the value co-creation model. To address the top-focused ecotourism VCs, this study presents an application of a hybrid expert-based ISM model and DEMATEL model based on multi-criteria decision making tools to investigate the complex multidimensional and dynamic nature of member engagement. Our research findings provide insightful managerial implications and suggest that the viral marketing of ecotourism protection is concerned with practitioners and academicians alike.

  19. Creating of structure of facts for the knowledge base of an expert system for wind power plant's equipment diagnosis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duer, Stanisław; Wrzesień, Paweł; Duer, Radosław

    2017-10-01

    This article describes rules and conditions for making a structure (a set) of facts for an expert knowledge base of the intelligent system to diagnose Wind Power Plants' equipment. Considering particular operational conditions of a technical object, that is a set of Wind Power Plant's equipment, this is a significant issue. A structural model of Wind Power Plant's equipment is developed. Based on that, a functional - diagnostic model of Wind Power Plant's equipment is elaborated. That model is a basis for determining primary elements of the object structure, as well as for interpreting a set of diagnostic signals and their reference signals. The key content of this paper is a description of rules for building of facts on the basis of developed analytical dependence. According to facts, their dependence is described by rules for transferring of a set of pieces of diagnostic information into a specific set of facts. The article consists of four chapters that concern particular issues on the subject.

  20. PRACTICAL ASPECTS OF QUALITY DATA PROCESSING AND A RULE –BASED EXPERT SYSTEM FOR QUALITY OF LIFE EVALUATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irena L. ATANASOVA

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available One of the most important challenges the European Union was facing at the beginning of the 21st century was to balance economic development with the improvement of quality of its citizens life. A new approach for assessing the quality of life using the ten-degree global scale is revealed in this article. The aptness of this approach to exploring the social area and determining the quality of life of people in different countries and regions are also discussed. There are being examined some practical aspects of setting up an expert system for social area.The article describes the implementation of such a system for evaluating the quality of life – QLIFEX. The expert system is an innovative research project based entirely on qualitative methods, which aims at helping in understanding of how in an era of great changes residents from different countries live and work in diverse economic organizations, and how they would rate their work and life.

  1. Including values in evidence-based policy making for breast screening: An empirically grounded tool to assist expert decision makers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parker, Lisa

    2017-07-01

    Values are an important part of evidence-based decision making for health policy: they guide the type of evidence that is collected, how it is interpreted, and how important the conclusions are considered to be. Experts in breast screening (including clinicians, researchers, consumer advocates and senior administrators) hold differing values in relation to what is important in breast screening policy and practice, and committees may find it difficult to incorporate the complexity and variety of values into policy decisions. The decision making tool provided here is intended to assist with this process. The tool is modified from more general frameworks that are intended to assist with ethical decision making in public health, and informed by data drawn from previous empirical studies on values amongst Australian breast screening experts. It provides a structured format for breast screening committees to consider and discuss the values of themselves and others, suggests relevant topics for further inquiry and highlights areas of need for future research into the values of the public. It enables committees to publicly explain and justify their decisions with reference to values, improving transparency and accountability. It is intended to act alongside practices that seek to accommodate the values of individual women in the informed decision making process for personal decision making about participation in breast screening. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. Ofsted's Judgement of Parental Engagement: A Justification of Its Place in Leadership and Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodall, Janet

    2015-01-01

    This article considers the recent change to Ofsted's inspection criteria, which now includes a judgement on schools' engagement with parents as part of the overall Leadership and Management judgement. The article argues that this is the correct place for this judgement, linking effective parental engagement with the development of a broad and…

  3. A Functional Architecture for a Logistics Expert System in a Sea Based Environment

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Cook, Henry B; Hicks, David M

    2005-01-01

    .... One of the major characteristics associated with future military concepts is that they employ Joint and Coalition Forces from a sea base conducting a full range of operations in the littoral regions of the world...

  4. The International Accounting Standards Board’s Progress in Promoting Judgement Through Objectives-Oriented Accounting Standards

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tanja Lakovic

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available This study analyzes how the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB promotes professional judgement by issuing objectives-oriented accounting standards and exposure drafts.  We focus on the the role of judgement as outlined in Phase I of the IASB Conceptual Framework (CF, Chapter 1, “Objective of General Purpose Financial Statements” and Chapter 3, “Qualitative Characteristics of Useful Financial Information” (IASB 2010. We discuss how the framework, when viewed through the prism of 'objectives-oriented accounting standards' as recommended by the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC Report in its “Study Pursuant to Section 108(d of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002 on the Adoption by the United States Financial Reporting System of a Principles-Based Accounting System” (July 2003, encourages professional judgement. We analyze International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS and Exposure Drafts (ED issued by the IASB since its inception in 2002 to determine if those documents are consistent with objectives-oriented accounting standards. Our analysis is useful for gaining insights into how the IASB integrates the CF with the SEC’s recommended objectives-oriented accounting approach to promote judgement in the interest of IASB/FASB convergence of accounting standards.

  5. Influence of experience and qualification on PET-based target volume delineation. When there is no expert - ask your colleague

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Doll, C.; Grosu, A.L.; Nestle, U. [University Medical Center Freiburg, Radiation Oncology Department, Freiburg/Breisgau (Germany); Duncker-Rohr, V. [University Medical Center Freiburg, Radiation Oncology Department, Freiburg/Breisgau (Germany); Ortenau Clinical Center Offenburg, Radiation Oncology Department, Offenburg (Germany); Ruecker, G. [University of Freiburg, Institute of Medical Biometry und Medical Informatics, Freiburg (Germany); Mix, M. [University Medical Center Freiburg, Nuclear Medicine Department, Freiburg (Germany); MacManus, M. [University of Melbourne, The Sir Peter MacCallum Department of Oncology, Melbourne (Australia); Ruysscher, D. de [University Hospital Leuven/KU Leuven, Department of Radiation Oncology, Leuven (Belgium); Vogel, W. [Antoni van Leeuwenhoek Hospital, Department of Nuclear Medicine, The Netherlands Cancer Institute, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Eriksen, J.G. [Odense University Hospital, Department of Oncology, Odense (Denmark); Oyen, W. [Radboud University Nijmegen Medical Center, Department of Nuclear Medicine, Nijmegen (Netherlands); Weber, W. [University Medical Center Freiburg, Nuclear Medicine Department, Freiburg (Germany); Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, Department of Radiology/Molecular Imaging and Therapy Service, New York (United States)

    2014-06-15

    The integration of positron emission tomography (PET) information for target volume delineation in radiation treatment planning is routine in many centers. In contrast to automatic contouring, research on visual-manual delineation is scarce. The present study investigates the dependency of manual delineation on experience and qualification. A total of 44 international interdisciplinary observers each defined a [{sup 18}F]fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG)-PET based gross tumor volume (GTV) using the same PET/CT scan from a patient with lung cancer. The observers were ''experts'' (E; n = 3), ''experienced interdisciplinary pairs'' (EP; 9 teams of radiation oncologist (RO) + nuclear medicine physician (NP)), ''single field specialists'' (SFS; n = 13), and ''students'' (S; n = 10). Five automatic delineation methods (AM) were also included. Volume sizes and concordance indices within the groups (pCI) and relative to the experts (eCI) were calculated. E (pCI = 0.67) and EP (pCI = 0.53) showed a significantly higher agreement within the groups as compared to SFS (pCI = 0.43, p = 0.03, and p = 0.006). In relation to the experts, EP (eCI = 0.55) showed better concordance compared to SFS (eCI = 0.49) or S (eCI = 0.47). The intermethod variability of the AM (pCI = 0.44) was similar to that of SFS and S, showing poorer agreement with the experts (eCI = 0.35). The results suggest that interdisciplinary cooperation could be beneficial for consistent contouring. Joint delineation by a radiation oncologist and a nuclear medicine physician showed remarkable agreement and better concordance with the experts compared to other specialists. The relevant intermethod variability of the automatic algorithms underlines the need for further standardization and optimization in this field. (orig.) [German] Die Daten aus der Positronenemissionstomographie (PET) werden in vielen Kliniken routinemaessig zur

  6. Values in breast cancer screening: an empirical study with Australian experts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parker, Lisa; Rychetnik, Lucie; Carter, Stacy

    2015-01-01

    Objective To explore what Australian experts value in breast screening, how these values are conceptualised and prioritised, and how they inform experts’ reasoning and judgement about the Australian breast-screening programme. Design Qualitative study based on interviews with experts. Participants 33 experts, including clinicians, programme managers, policymakers, advocates and researchers selected for their recognisable influence in the Australian breast-screening setting. Setting Australian breast-screening policy, practice and research settings. Results Experts expressed 2 types of values: ethical values (about what was good, important or right) and epistemological values (about how evidence should be created and used). Ethical values included delivering benefit, avoiding harm, promoting autonomy, fairness, cost effectiveness, accountability, professionalism and transparency. Epistemological values informed experts’ arguments about prioritising and evaluating evidence methodology, source population and professional interests. Some values were conceptualised differently by experts: for example, delivering benefit could mean reducing breast cancer mortality, reducing all-cause mortality, reducing mortality in younger women, reducing need for aggressive treatment, and/or reassuring women they were cancer free. When values came into conflict, experts prioritised them differently: for example, when experts perceived a conflict between delivering benefits and promoting autonomy, there were differences in which value was prioritised. We explain the complexity of the relationship between held values and experts’ overall views on breast cancer screening. Conclusions Experts’ positions in breast screening are influenced by evidence and a wide range of ethical and epistemological values. We conclude that discussions about values should be a regular part of breast-screening review in order to build understanding between those who hold different positions, and

  7. SIMULATION-BASED METHODOLOGY FOR PREDICTING FOOTBALL MATCH OUTCOMES CONSIDERING EXPERTS' OPINIONS: THE 2010 AND 2014 FOOTBALL WORLD CUP CASES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francisco Louzada

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT In this paper we propose a simulation-based method for predicting the 2010 and 2014Football World Cup. Adopting a bayesian perspective, we modeled the number of goals of two opposing teams as a Poisson distribution whose mean is proportional to the relative technical level of opponents. FIFA ratings were taken as the measure of technical level of teams and experts' opinions about scores of matches were taken to construct prior distribution of parameters. Just before each round, tournament simulations were performed in order to estimate probabilities of events of main interest for audience and bettors such as qualifying to the knockout stage, reaching semi-finals, reaching the final match, winningthe tournament, among others.

  8. An expert-based job exposure matrix for large scale epidemiologic studies of primary hip and knee osteoarthritis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rubak, Tine Steen; Svendsen, Susanne Wulff; Andersen, Johan Hviid

    2014-01-01

    in population studies of the work-relatedness of hip and knee osteoarthritis. METHODS: Based on all 2227 occupational titles in the Danish version of the International Standard Classification of Occupations (D-ISCO 88), we constructed 121 job groups comprising occupational titles with expected homogeneous......BACKGROUND: When conducting large scale epidemiologic studies, it is a challenge to obtain quantitative exposure estimates, which do not rely on self-report where estimates may be influenced by symptoms and knowledge of disease status. In this study we developed a job exposure matrix (JEM) for use...... exposure patterns in addition to a minimally exposed job group, which was not included in the JEM. The job groups were allocated the mean value of five experts' ratings of daily duration (hours/day) of standing/walking, kneeling/squatting, and whole-body vibration as well as total load lifted (kg...

  9. NEPHRUS: model of intelligent multilayers expert system for evaluation of the renal system based on scintigraphic images analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silva, Jose W.E. da; Schirru, Roberto; Boasquevisque, Edson M.

    1997-01-01

    This work develops a prototype for the system model based on Artificial Intelligence devices able to perform functions related to scintigraphic image analysis of the urinary system. Criteria used by medical experts for analysis images obtained with 99m Tc+DTPA and/or 99m Tc+DMSA were modeled and a multi resolution diagnosis technique was implemented. Special attention was given to the programs user interface design. Human Factor Engineering techniques were considered so as to ally friendliness and robustness. Results obtained using Artificial Neural Networks for the qualitative image analysis and the knowledge model constructed shows the feasibility of Artificial Intelligence implementation that use 'inherent' abilities of each technique in the resolution of diagnosis image analysis problems. (author). 12 refs., 2 figs., 2 tabs

  10. Time-based tags for fiction movies : comparing experts to novices using a video labeling game

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Estrada, Liliana Melgar; Hildebrand, Michiel; de Boer, Victor; van Ossenbruggen, Jacco

    2017-01-01

    The cultural heritage sector has embraced social tagging as a way to increase both access to online content and to engage users with their digital collections. In this article, we build on two current lines of research. (a) We use Waisda?, an existing labeling game, to add time-based annotations to

  11. An expert botanical feature extraction technique based on phenetic features for identifying plant species.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hoshang Kolivand

    Full Text Available In this paper, we present a new method to recognise the leaf type and identify plant species using phenetic parts of the leaf; lobes, apex and base detection. Most of the research in this area focuses on the popular features such as the shape, colour, vein, and texture, which consumes large amounts of computational processing and are not efficient, especially in the Acer database with a high complexity structure of the leaves. This paper is focused on phenetic parts of the leaf which increases accuracy. Detecting the local maxima and local minima are done based on Centroid Contour Distance for Every Boundary Point, using north and south region to recognise the apex and base. Digital morphology is used to measure the leaf shape and the leaf margin. Centroid Contour Gradient is presented to extract the curvature of leaf apex and base. We analyse 32 leaf images of tropical plants and evaluated with two different datasets, Flavia, and Acer. The best accuracy obtained is 94.76% and 82.6% respectively. Experimental results show the effectiveness of the proposed technique without considering the commonly used features with high computational cost.

  12. Construction of Expert Knowledge Monitoring and Assessment System Based on Integral Method of Knowledge Evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Golovachyova, Viktoriya N.; Menlibekova, Gulbakhyt Zh.; Abayeva, Nella F.; Ten, Tatyana L.; Kogaya, Galina D.

    2016-01-01

    Using computer-based monitoring systems that rely on tests could be the most effective way of knowledge evaluation. The problem of objective knowledge assessment by means of testing takes on a new dimension in the context of new paradigms in education. The analysis of the existing test methods enabled us to conclude that tests with selected…

  13. Time-based tags for fiction movies: comparing experts to novices using a video labeling game

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    L. Melgar Estrada; M. Hildebrand (Michiel); V. de Boer; J.R. van Ossenbruggen (Jacco)

    2017-01-01

    htmlabstractThe cultural heritage sector has embraced social tagging as a way to increase both access to online content and to engage users with their digital collections. In this article, we build on two current lines of research. (a) We use Waisda?, an existing labeling game, to add time-based

  14. Bridging the Gap between Expert-Novice Differences: The Model-Based Feedback Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ifenthaler, Dirk

    2011-01-01

    The study adds to the body of knowledge about different types of feedback. Feedback is considered a fundamental component for supporting and regulating learning processes. Especially in computer-based and self-regulated learning environments, the nature of feedback is of critical importance. Hence, this study investigates different types of…

  15. An expert botanical feature extraction technique based on phenetic features for identifying plant species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kolivand, Hoshang; Fern, Bong Mei; Rahim, Mohd Shafry Mohd; Sulong, Ghazali; Baker, Thar; Tully, David

    2018-01-01

    In this paper, we present a new method to recognise the leaf type and identify plant species using phenetic parts of the leaf; lobes, apex and base detection. Most of the research in this area focuses on the popular features such as the shape, colour, vein, and texture, which consumes large amounts of computational processing and are not efficient, especially in the Acer database with a high complexity structure of the leaves. This paper is focused on phenetic parts of the leaf which increases accuracy. Detecting the local maxima and local minima are done based on Centroid Contour Distance for Every Boundary Point, using north and south region to recognise the apex and base. Digital morphology is used to measure the leaf shape and the leaf margin. Centroid Contour Gradient is presented to extract the curvature of leaf apex and base. We analyse 32 leaf images of tropical plants and evaluated with two different datasets, Flavia, and Acer. The best accuracy obtained is 94.76% and 82.6% respectively. Experimental results show the effectiveness of the proposed technique without considering the commonly used features with high computational cost.

  16. An expert botanical feature extraction technique based on phenetic features for identifying plant species

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fern, Bong Mei; Rahim, Mohd Shafry Mohd; Sulong, Ghazali; Baker, Thar; Tully, David

    2018-01-01

    In this paper, we present a new method to recognise the leaf type and identify plant species using phenetic parts of the leaf; lobes, apex and base detection. Most of the research in this area focuses on the popular features such as the shape, colour, vein, and texture, which consumes large amounts of computational processing and are not efficient, especially in the Acer database with a high complexity structure of the leaves. This paper is focused on phenetic parts of the leaf which increases accuracy. Detecting the local maxima and local minima are done based on Centroid Contour Distance for Every Boundary Point, using north and south region to recognise the apex and base. Digital morphology is used to measure the leaf shape and the leaf margin. Centroid Contour Gradient is presented to extract the curvature of leaf apex and base. We analyse 32 leaf images of tropical plants and evaluated with two different datasets, Flavia, and Acer. The best accuracy obtained is 94.76% and 82.6% respectively. Experimental results show the effectiveness of the proposed technique without considering the commonly used features with high computational cost. PMID:29420568

  17. Clinical Guidelines for Management of Bone Health in Rett Syndrome Based on Expert Consensus and Available Evidence.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amanda Jefferson

    Full Text Available We developed clinical guidelines for the management of bone health in Rett syndrome through evidence review and the consensus of an expert panel of clinicians.An initial guidelines draft was created which included statements based upon literature review and 11 open-ended questions where literature was lacking. The international expert panel reviewed the draft online using a 2-stage Delphi process to reach consensus agreement. Items describe the clinical assessment of bone health, bone mineral density assessment and technique, and pharmacological and non-pharmacological interventions.Agreement was reached on 39 statements which were formulated from 41 statements and 11 questions. When assessing bone health in Rett syndrome a comprehensive assessment of fracture history, mutation type, prescribed medication, pubertal development, mobility level, dietary intake and biochemical bone markers is recommended. A baseline densitometry assessment should be performed with accommodations made for size, with the frequency of surveillance determined according to individual risk. Lateral spine x-rays are also suggested. Increasing physical activity and initiating calcium and vitamin D supplementation when low are the first approaches to optimizing bone health in Rett syndrome. If individuals with Rett syndrome meet the ISCD criterion for osteoporosis in children, the use of bisphosphonates is recommended.A clinically significant history of fracture in combination with low bone densitometry findings is necessary for a diagnosis of osteoporosis. These evidence and consensus-based guidelines have the potential to improve bone health in those with Rett syndrome, reduce the frequency of fractures, and stimulate further research that aims to ameliorate the impacts of this serious comorbidity.

  18. Selection Input Output by Restriction Using DEA Models Based on a Fuzzy Delphi Approach and Expert Information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arsad, Roslah; Nasir Abdullah, Mohammad; Alias, Suriana; Isa, Zaidi

    2017-09-01

    Stock evaluation has always been an interesting problem for investors. In this paper, a comparison regarding the efficiency stocks of listed companies in Bursa Malaysia were made through the application of estimation method of Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). One of the interesting research subjects in DEA is the selection of appropriate input and output parameter. In this study, DEA was used to measure efficiency of stocks of listed companies in Bursa Malaysia in terms of the financial ratio to evaluate performance of stocks. Based on previous studies and Fuzzy Delphi Method (FDM), the most important financial ratio was selected. The results indicated that return on equity, return on assets, net profit margin, operating profit margin, earnings per share, price to earnings and debt to equity were the most important ratios. Using expert information, all the parameter were clarified as inputs and outputs. The main objectives were to identify most critical financial ratio, clarify them based on expert information and compute the relative efficiency scores of stocks as well as rank them in the construction industry and material completely. The methods of analysis using Alirezaee and Afsharian’s model were employed in this study, where the originality of Charnes, Cooper and Rhodes (CCR) with the assumption of Constant Return to Scale (CSR) still holds. This method of ranking relative efficiency of decision making units (DMUs) was value-added by the Balance Index. The interested data was made for year 2015 and the population of the research includes accepted companies in stock markets in the construction industry and material (63 companies). According to the ranking, the proposed model can rank completely for 63 companies using selected financial ratio.

  19. An Intervention Based on Video Feedback and Questioning to Improve Tactical Knowledge in Expert Female Volleyball Players.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moreno, M Perla; Moreno, Alberto; García-González, Luis; Ureña, Aurelio; Hernández, César; Del Villar, Fernando

    2016-06-01

    This study applied an intervention program, based on video feedback and questioning, to expert female volleyball players to improve their tactical knowledge. The sample consisted of eight female attackers (26 ± 2.6 years old) from the Spanish National Volleyball Team, who were divided into an experimental group (n = 4) and a control group (n = 4). The video feedback and questioning program applied in the study was developed over eight reflective sessions and consisted of three phases: viewing of the selected actions, self-analysis and reflection by the attacker, and joint player-coach analysis. The attackers were videotaped in an actual game and four clips (situations) of each of the attackers were chosen for each reflective session. Two of the clips showed a correct action by the attacker, and two showed an incorrect decision. Tactical knowledge was measured by problem representation with a verbal protocol. The members of the experimental group showed adaptations in long-term memory, significantly improving their tactical knowledge. With respect to conceptual content, there was an increase in the total number of conditions verbalized by the players; with respect to conceptual sophistication, there was an increase in the indication of appropriate conditions with two or more details; and finally, with respect to conceptual structure, there was an increase in the use of double or triple conceptual structures. The intervention program, based on video feedback and questioning, in addition to on-court training sessions of expert volleyball players, appears to improve the athletes' tactical knowledge. © The Author(s) 2016.

  20. Applied, theoretical modeling of space-based assembly, using expert system architecture for computer-aided engineering tool development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jolly, Steven Douglas

    1992-01-01

    The challenges associated with constructing interplanetary spacecraft and space platforms in low earth orbit are such that it is imperative that comprehensive, preliminary process planning analyses be completed before committing funds for Phase B design (detail design, development). Phase A and 'pre-Phase A' design activities will commonly address engineering questions such as mission-design structural integrity, attitude control, thermal control, etc. But the questions of constructability, maintainability and reliability during the assembly phase usually go unaddressed until the more mature stages of design (or very often production) are reached. This is an unacceptable strategy for future space missions whether they be government or commercial ventures. After interviews with expert Aerospace and Construction industry planners a new methodology was formulated and a Blackboard Metaphor Knowledge-based Expert System synthesis model has been successfully developed which can decompose interplanetary vehicles into deliverable orbital subassemblies. Constraint propagation, including launch vehicle payload shroud envelope, is accomplished with heuristic and numerical algorithms including a unique adaptation of a reasoning technique used by Stanford researchers in terrestrial automated process planning. The model is a hybrid combination of rule and frame-based representations, designed to integrate into a Computer-Aided Engineering (CAE) environment. Emphasis is placed on the actual joining, rendezvous, and refueling of the orbiting, dynamic spacecraft. Significant results of this new methodology upon a large Mars interplanetary spacecraft (736,000 kg) designed by Boeing, show high correlation to manual decomposition and planning analysis studies, but at a fraction of the time, and with little user interaction. Such Computer-Aided Engineering (CAE) tools would greatly leverage the designers ability to assess constructability.

  1. Clinical Guidelines for Management of Bone Health in Rett Syndrome Based on Expert Consensus and Available Evidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jefferson, Amanda; Leonard, Helen; Siafarikas, Aris; Woodhead, Helen; Fyfe, Sue; Ward, Leanne M; Munns, Craig; Motil, Kathleen; Tarquinio, Daniel; Shapiro, Jay R; Brismar, Torkel; Ben-Zeev, Bruria; Bisgaard, Anne-Marie; Coppola, Giangennaro; Ellaway, Carolyn; Freilinger, Michael; Geerts, Suzanne; Humphreys, Peter; Jones, Mary; Lane, Jane; Larsson, Gunilla; Lotan, Meir; Percy, Alan; Pineda, Mercedes; Skinner, Steven; Syhler, Birgit; Thompson, Sue; Weiss, Batia; Witt Engerström, Ingegerd; Downs, Jenny

    2016-01-01

    We developed clinical guidelines for the management of bone health in Rett syndrome through evidence review and the consensus of an expert panel of clinicians. An initial guidelines draft was created which included statements based upon literature review and 11 open-ended questions where literature was lacking. The international expert panel reviewed the draft online using a 2-stage Delphi process to reach consensus agreement. Items describe the clinical assessment of bone health, bone mineral density assessment and technique, and pharmacological and non-pharmacological interventions. Agreement was reached on 39 statements which were formulated from 41 statements and 11 questions. When assessing bone health in Rett syndrome a comprehensive assessment of fracture history, mutation type, prescribed medication, pubertal development, mobility level, dietary intake and biochemical bone markers is recommended. A baseline densitometry assessment should be performed with accommodations made for size, with the frequency of surveillance determined according to individual risk. Lateral spine x-rays are also suggested. Increasing physical activity and initiating calcium and vitamin D supplementation when low are the first approaches to optimizing bone health in Rett syndrome. If individuals with Rett syndrome meet the ISCD criterion for osteoporosis in children, the use of bisphosphonates is recommended. A clinically significant history of fracture in combination with low bone densitometry findings is necessary for a diagnosis of osteoporosis. These evidence and consensus-based guidelines have the potential to improve bone health in those with Rett syndrome, reduce the frequency of fractures, and stimulate further research that aims to ameliorate the impacts of this serious comorbidity.

  2. Expert opinions on carbon dioxide capture and storage-A framing of uncertainties and possibilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hansson, Anders; Bryngelsson, Marten

    2009-01-01

    There are many uncertainties and knowledge gaps regarding the development of carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS)-e.g., when it comes to costs, life-cycle effects, storage capacity and permanence. In spite of these uncertainties and barriers, the CCS research community is generally very optimistic regarding CCS' development. The discrepancy between the uncertainties and the optimism is the point of departure in this study, which is based on interviews with 24 CCS experts. The aim is to analyse experts' framings of CCS with focus on two key aspects: (i) the function and potential of CCS and (ii) uncertainties. The optimism among the CCS experts is tentatively explained. The interpretative flexibility of CCS is claimed to be an essential explanation for the optimism. CCS is promoted from a wide variety of perspectives, e.g., solidarity and peace, bridge to a sustainable energy system, sustaining the modern lifestyle and compatibility with the fossil fuel lock-in. Awareness of the uncertainties and potential over-optimism is warranted within policy and decision making as they often rely on scientific forecasts and experts' judgements.

  3. Hemodynamic behavior modeling of a Virtual Surgical Patient based on a Fuzzy Expert System.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paulo Farias Paiva

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available The Virtual Reality (VR allows its users to experience a sense of being immersed in synthetic 3D scenarios generated by computer graphics. The so-called Virtual Environments (VEs based on RV can be applied to medical education, enabling: repetitive training and the development of psychomotor skills in surgical procedures without compromising real patients. Surgical simulators that feature Dynamic Virtual Patients (VPs, that is, reacts physiologically to interventions and medical decisions made during the training. These systems present more realism while it offers the possibility of varying clinical cases. This work has as main objective to discuss important issues of modeling the hemodynamic performance of a VP, specifically to simulate blood pressure values (both sistolic and diastolic variables. The model of a VP is presented as result as well as is presented an architecture for its integration to simulators based on VR.

  4. Fuzzy Logic-based expert system for evaluating cake quality of freeze-dried formulations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Trnka, Hjalte; Wu, Jian-Xiong; van de Weert, Marco

    2013-01-01

    critical visual features such as the degree of cake collapse, glassiness, and color uniformity. On the basis of the IA outputs, a fuzzy logic system for analysis of these freeze-dried cakes was constructed. After this development phase, the system was tested with a new screening well plate. The developed...... are needed. The aim of this study was to develop a fuzzy logic system based on image analysis (IA) for analyzing cake quality. Freeze-dried samples with different visual quality attributes were prepared in well plates. Imaging solutions together with image analytical routines were developed for extracting...... fuzzy logic-based system was found to give comparable quality scores with visual evaluation, making high-throughput classification of cake quality possible....

  5. Expert Advisor (EA) Evaluation System Using Web-based ELECTRE Method in Foreign Exchange (Forex) Market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Satibi; Widodo, Catur Edi; Farikhin

    2018-02-01

    This research aims to optimize forex trading profit automatically using EA but its still keep considering accuracy and drawdown levels. The evaluation system will classify EA performance based on trading market sessions (Sydney, Tokyo, London and New York) to determine the right EA to be used in certain market sessions. This evaluation system is a web-based ELECTRE methods that interact in real-time with EA through web service and are able to present real-time charts performance dashboard using web socket protocol communications. Web applications are programmed using NodeJs. In the testing period, all EAs had been simulated 24 hours in all market sessions for three months, the best EA is valued by its profit, accuracy and drawdown criteria that calculated using web-based ELECTRE method. The ideas of this research are to compare the best EA on testing period with collaboration performances of each best classified EA by market sessions. This research uses three months historical data of EUR/USD as testing period and other 3 months as validation period. As a result, performance of collaboration four best EA classified by market sessions can increase profits percentage consistently in testing and validation periods and keep securing accuracy and drawdown levels.

  6. Expert Advisor (EA Evaluation System Using Web-based ELECTRE Method in Foreign Exchange (Forex Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Satibi Satibi

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available This research aims to optimize forex trading profit automatically using EA but its still keep considering accuracy and drawdown levels. The evaluation system will classify EA performance based on trading market sessions (Sydney, Tokyo, London and New York to determine the right EA to be used in certain market sessions. This evaluation system is a web-based ELECTRE methods that interact in real-time with EA through web service and are able to present real-time charts performance dashboard using web socket protocol communications. Web applications are programmed using NodeJs. In the testing period, all EAs had been simulated 24 hours in all market sessions for three months, the best EA is valued by its profit, accuracy and drawdown criteria that calculated using web-based ELECTRE method. The ideas of this research are to compare the best EA on testing period with collaboration performances of each best classified EA by market sessions. This research uses three months historical data of EUR/USD as testing period and other 3 months as validation period. As a result, performance of collaboration four best EA classified by market sessions can increase profits percentage consistently in testing and validation periods and keep securing accuracy and drawdown levels.

  7. Fuzzy Logic-based expert system for evaluating cake quality of freeze-dried formulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trnka, Hjalte; Wu, Jian X; Van De Weert, Marco; Grohganz, Holger; Rantanen, Jukka

    2013-12-01

    Freeze-drying of peptide and protein-based pharmaceuticals is an increasingly important field of research. The diverse nature of these compounds, limited understanding of excipient functionality, and difficult-to-analyze quality attributes together with the increasing importance of the biosimilarity concept complicate the development phase of safe and cost-effective drug products. To streamline the development phase and to make high-throughput formulation screening possible, efficient solutions for analyzing critical quality attributes such as cake quality with minimal material consumption are needed. The aim of this study was to develop a fuzzy logic system based on image analysis (IA) for analyzing cake quality. Freeze-dried samples with different visual quality attributes were prepared in well plates. Imaging solutions together with image analytical routines were developed for extracting critical visual features such as the degree of cake collapse, glassiness, and color uniformity. On the basis of the IA outputs, a fuzzy logic system for analysis of these freeze-dried cakes was constructed. After this development phase, the system was tested with a new screening well plate. The developed fuzzy logic-based system was found to give comparable quality scores with visual evaluation, making high-throughput classification of cake quality possible. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. and the American Pharmacists Association.

  8. [Obesity and Eating Disorders. Indications for the different levels of care. An Italian Expert Consensus Document].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donini, L M; Cuzzolaro, M; Spera, G; Badiali, M; Basso, N; Bollea, M R; Bosello, O; Brunani, A; Busetto, L; Cairella, G; Cannella, C; Capodaglio, P; Carbonelli, M G; Castellaneta, E; Castra, R; Clini, E; Contaldo, F; Dalla Ragione, L; Dalle Grave, R; D'Andrea, F; Del Balzo, V; De Cristofaro, P; Di Flaviano, E; Fassino, S; Ferro, A M; Forestieri, P; Franzoni, E; Gentile, M G; Giustini, A; Jacoangeli, F; Lubrano, C; Lucchin, L; Manara, F; Marangi, G; Marcelli, M; Marchesini, G; Marri, G; Marrocco, W; Melchionda, N; Mezzani, B; Migliaccio, P; Muratori, F; Nizzoli, U; Ostuzzi, R; Panzolato, G; Pasanisi, F; Persichetti, P; Petroni, M L; Pontieri, V; Prosperi, E; Renna, C; Rovera, G; Santini, F; Saraceni, V; Savina, C; Scuderi, N; Silecchia, G; Strollo, F; Todisco, P; Tubili, C; Ugolini, G; Zamboni, M

    2010-01-01

    This paper is an Italian Expert Consensus Document on multidimensional treatment of obesity and eating disorders. The Document is based on a wide survey of expert opinion. It presents, in particular, considerations regarding how clinicians go about choosing the most appropriate site of treatment for a given patient suffering from obesity and/or eating disorders: outpatient, partial hospitalization, residential rehabilitation centre, inpatient hospitalization. In a majority of instances obesity and eating disorders are long-term diseases and require a multiprofessional team-approach. In determining an initial level of care or a change to a different level of care, it is essential to consider together the overall physical condition, medical complications, disabilities, psychiatric comorbidity, psychology, behaviour, family, social resources, environment, and available services. We first created a review manuscript, a skeleton algorithm and two rating scales, based on the published guidelines and the existing research literature. As the second point we highlighted a number of clinical questions that had to be addressed in the specific context of our National Health Service and available specialized care units. Then we submitted eleven progressive revisions of the Document to the experts up to the final synthesis that was approved by the group. Of course, from point to point, some of the individual experts would differ with the consensus view. The document can be viewed as an expert consultation and the clinical judgement must always be tailored to the particular needs of each clinical situation. We will continue to revise the Document periodically based on new research information and on reassessment of expert opinion to keep it up-to-date. The Document was not financially sponsored.

  9. Exploration of Quantum Interference in Document Relevance Judgement Discrepancy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benyou Wang

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Quantum theory has been applied in a number of fields outside physics, e.g., cognitive science and information retrieval (IR. Recently, it has been shown that quantum theory can subsume various key IR models into a single mathematical formalism of Hilbert vector spaces. While a series of quantum-inspired IR models has been proposed, limited effort has been devoted to verify the existence of the quantum-like phenomenon in real users’ information retrieval processes, from a real user study perspective. In this paper, we aim to explore and model the quantum interference in users’ relevance judgement about documents, caused by the presentation order of documents. A user study in the context of IR tasks have been carried out. The existence of the quantum interference is tested by the violation of the law of total probability and the validity of the order effect. Our main findings are: (1 there is an apparent judging discrepancy across different users and document presentation orders, and empirical data have violated the law of total probability; (2 most search trials recorded in the user study show the existence of the order effect, and the incompatible decision perspectives in the quantum question (QQ model are valid in some trials. We further explain the judgement discrepancy in more depth, in terms of four effects (comparison, unfamiliarity, attraction and repulsion and also analyse the dynamics of document relevance judgement in terms of the evolution of the information need subspace.

  10. The effect of repeated testing on judgement biases in sheep.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doyle, Rebecca E; Vidal, Stephanie; Hinch, Geoff N; Fisher, Andrew D; Boissy, Alain; Lee, Caroline

    2010-03-01

    Testing judgement biases of animals may provide insight into their affective states; however important questions about methodologies need to be answered. This experiment investigated the effect of repeated testing using unreinforced, ambiguous cues on the response of sheep to a go/no-go judgement bias test. Fifteen sheep were trained to differentiate between two locations, reinforced respectively with feed (positive) or with the presentation of a dog (negative). The responses to nine ambiguous locations, positioned between the positively and negatively reinforced locations, were tested repeatedly over 3 weeks. Sheep exhibited a symmetrical gradation in response to ambiguous locations between the positive and negative reinforcers. There was a significant decline (P=0.001) in the total number of approaches to the ambiguous positions over time (weeks). This effect of time suggests that sheep learnt that the ambiguous locations were unrewarded. This result supplies evidence of a limitation identified in current judgement bias methodology, due to repeated testing, which has the potential to provide misleading results. Crown Copyright (c) 2010. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. Are teachers' judgements of pupils' ability influenced by body shape?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shackleton, N L; Campbell, T

    2014-04-01

    Evidence indicates that teachers can judge pupils on the basis of their physical appearance, including their body shape. Teacher bias towards obese pupils has been suggested as a potential pathway through which obese children attain relatively lower academic levels. The aim of this study was to investigate whether teachers' judgements of pupils' ability are influenced by the body shape of the child. The sample includes English, singleton children in state schools from the Millennium Cohort Study. The data were taken from the fourth wave of data collection, when the children were approximately 7 years old. In all, 5086/5072 children had teacher ability ratings of reading and maths. Logistic regression analyses were used to test whether teachers' perceptions of the child's reading and mathematics ability were influenced by the pupil's waist circumference, conditional upon cognitive test scores of reading and maths ability. After adjustment for cognitive test scores, no significant overall relationship was found between the pupil's waist circumference and the teacher's judgements of ability. No statistically significant differences were observed in the probability of being judged as above average after further adjustments were made for potential confounders. There is little evidence that teachers' judgements of pupils' ability are influenced by obesity.

  12. Teaching practical wisdom in medicine through clinical judgement, goals of care, and ethical reasoning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaldjian, Lauris Christopher

    2010-09-01

    Clinical decision making is a challenging task that requires practical wisdom-the practised ability to help patients choose wisely among available diagnostic and treatment options. But practical wisdom is not a concept one typically hears mentioned in medical training and practice. Instead, emphasis is placed on clinical judgement. The author draws from Aristotle and Aquinas to describe the virtue of practical wisdom and compare it with clinical judgement. From this comparison, the author suggests that a more complete understanding of clinical judgement requires its explicit integration with goals of care and ethical values. Although clinicians may be justified in assuming that goals of care and ethical values are implicit in routine decision making, it remains important for training purposes to encourage habits of clinical judgement that are consciously goal-directed and ethically informed. By connecting clinical judgement to patients' goals and values, clinical decisions are more likely to stay focused on the particular interests of individual patients. To cultivate wise clinical judgement among trainees, educational efforts should aim at the integration of clinical judgement, communication with patients about goals of care, and ethical reasoning. But ultimately, training in wise clinical judgement will take years of practice in the company of experienced clinicians who are able to demonstrate practical wisdom by example. By helping trainees develop clinical judgement that incorporates patients' goals of care and ethical reasoning, we may help lessen the risk that 'clinical judgement' will merely express 'the clinician's judgement.'

  13. Optimization of knowledge-based systems and expert system building tools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yasuda, Phyllis; Mckellar, Donald

    1993-01-01

    The objectives of the NASA-AMES Cooperative Agreement were to investigate, develop, and evaluate, via test cases, the system parameters and processing algorithms that constrain the overall performance of the Information Sciences Division's Artificial Intelligence Research Facility. Written reports covering various aspects of the grant were submitted to the co-investigators for the grant. Research studies concentrated on the field of artificial intelligence knowledge-based systems technology. Activities included the following areas: (1) AI training classes; (2) merging optical and digital processing; (3) science experiment remote coaching; (4) SSF data management system tests; (5) computer integrated documentation project; (6) conservation of design knowledge project; (7) project management calendar and reporting system; (8) automation and robotics technology assessment; (9) advanced computer architectures and operating systems; and (10) honors program.

  14. Expert System Based on an Ontology Method to Analyze Types of Arabica Coffee Beans

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michelle Angelica

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available In the past few decades, the use of ontologies in information systems has become popular in many fields, such as website development, database integration, and natural language processing. Because many kinds of coffee beans can be used in coffee shops, the prospective coffee house entrepreneur meets obstacles in terms of choosing the right coffee beans because of multiple unique characteristics. In order to help this cohort make decisions, our study proposed a simulation ontology-based matching for coffee bean selection by inserting three parameters—aroma, flavor, and sour level—as inputs on the website. Arabica coffee bean is used as the principal object in this study and the outputs would be the beans matched with the parameters that had been inserted. In this study, the system model gained from the ontology method is shown in the implementation by using an example.Key Words—Arabica coffee beans, Ontology, OWL, Protégé, SPARQL

  15. Framing a Knowledge Base for a Legal Expert System Dealing with Indeterminate Concepts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michał Araszkiewicz

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Despite decades of development of formal tools for modelling legal knowledge and reasoning, the creation of a fully fledged legal decision support system remains challenging. Among those challenges, such system requires an enormous amount of commonsense knowledge to derive legal expertise. This paper describes the development of a negotiation decision support system (the Parenting Plan Support System or PPSS to support parents in drafting an agreement (the parenting plan for the exercise of parental custody of minor children after a divorce is granted. The main objective here is to discuss problems of framing an intuitively appealing and computationally efficient knowledge base that can adequately represent the indeterminate legal concept of the well-being of the child in the context of continental legal culture and of Polish law in particular. In addition to commonsense reasoning, interpretation of such a concept demands both legal expertise and significant professional knowledge from other domains.

  16. Fuzzy rule-based expert system for assessment severity of asthma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zolnoori, Maryam; Zarandi, Mohammad Hossein Fazel; Moin, Mostafa; Teimorian, Shahram

    2012-06-01

    Prescription medicine for asthma at primary stages is based on asthma severity level. Despite major progress in discovering various variables affecting asthma severity levels, disregarding some of these variables by physicians, variables' inherent uncertainty, and assigning patients to limited categories of decision making are the major causes of underestimating asthma severity, and as a result low quality of life in asthmatic patients. In this paper, we provide a solution of intelligence fuzzy system for this problem. Inputs of this system are organized in five modules of respiratory symptoms, bronchial obstruction, asthma instability, quality of life, and asthma severity. Output of this system is degree of asthma severity in score (0-10). Evaluating performance of this system by 28 asthmatic patients reinforces that the system's results not only correspond with evaluations of physicians, but represent the slight differences of asthmatic patients placed in specific category introduced by guidelines.

  17. ComPAIR: A New Online Tool Using Adaptive Comparative Judgement to Support Learning with Peer Feedback

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tiffany Potter

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Peer feedback is a useful strategy in teaching and learning, but its effectiveness particularly in introductory courses can be limited by the relative newness of students to both the body of knowledge upon which they are being asked to provide feedback and the skill set involved in providing good feedback. This paper applies a novel approach to facilitating novice feedback: making use of students’ inherent ability to compare. The ComPAIR application discussed in this article scaffolds peer feedback through comparisons, asking students to choose the “better” of two answers in a series of pairings offered in an engaging online context. In contrast to other peer-feedback approaches that seek to train novices to be able to provide expert feedback (such as calibrated peer review or to crowdsource grading, ComPAIR focuses upon the benefits to be gained from the critical process of comparison and ranking. The tool design is based on the longstanding psychological principle of comparative judgement, by which novices who may not yet have the compass to assess others’ work confidently can still rank content as “better” with accuracy. Data from 168 students in pilot studies in English, Physics and Math courses at the University of British Columbia are reviewed. Though the use of ComPAIR required little classroom time, students perceived this approach to increase their facility with course content, their ability assess their own work, and their capacity to provide feedback on the work of others in a collaborative learning environment.

  18. Empirical guidelines for forest management decision support systems based on the past experiences of the expert's community

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marques, A. F.; Ficko, A.; Kangas, A.; Rosset, C.; Ferreti, F.; Rasinmaki, J.; Packalen, T.; Gordom, S.

    2013-09-01

    Aim of the study: Decision support systems for forest management (FMDSS) have been developed world wide to account for a broad range of forest ecosystems, management goals and organizational frameworks (e.g. the wiki page of the FORSYS project reports 62 existing FMDSSs from 23 countries). The need to enhance the collaboration among this diverse community of developers and users fostered the rise of new group communication processes that could capture useful knowledge from past experiences in order to efficiently provide it to new FMDSS development efforts. Material and methods: This paper presents and tests an exploratory process aiming to identify the empirical guidelines assisting developers and users of FMDSS. This process encompasses a Delphi survey built upon the consolidation of the lessons-learned statements that summarize the past experiences of the experts involved in the FORSYS project. The experts come from 34 countries and have diverse interests, ranging from forest planners, IT developers, social scientists studying participatory planning, and researchers with interests in knowledge management and in quantitative models for forest planning. Main results: The proposed 37 empirical guidelines that group 102 lessons-learned cover a broad range of issues including the DSS development cycle, involvement of the stakeholders, methods, models and knowledge based techniques in use. Research highlights: These results may be used for improving new FMDSS development processes, teaching and training and further suggest new features of FMDSS and future research topics. Furthermore, the guidelines may constitute a knowledge repository that may be continuously improved by a community of practice. (Author)

  19. Empirical guidelines for forest management decision support systems based on the past experiences of the expert's community

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A.F. Marques

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Aim of the study: Decision support systems for forest management (FMDSS have been developed world wide to account for a broad range of forest ecosystems, management goals and organizational frameworks (e.g. the wiki page of the FORSYS project reports 62 existing FMDSSs from 23 countries. The need to enhance the collaboration among this diverse community of developers and users fostered the rise of new group communication processes that could capture useful knowledge from past experiences in order to efficiently provide it to new FMDSS development efforts.Material and methods: This paper presents and tests an exploratory process aiming to identify the empirical guidelines assisting developers and users of FMDSS. This process encompasses aDelphi survey built upon the consolidation of the lessons-learned statements that summarize the past experiences of the experts involved in the FORSYS project. The experts come from 34 countries and have diverse interests, ranging from forest planners, IT developers, social scientists studying participatory planning, and researchers with interests in knowledge management and in quantitative models for forest planning.Main results: The proposed 37 empirical guidelines that group 102 lessons-learned cover a broad range of issues including the DSS development cycle, involvement of the stakeholders, methods, models and knowledge-based techniques in use.Research highlights: These results may be used for improving new FMDSS development processes, teaching and training and further suggest new features of FMDSS and future research topics. Furthermore, the guidelines may constitute a knowledge repository that may be continuously improved by a community of practice.Keywords: Forest management; guidelines; guidelines definition process; lessons learned; decision support systems; system architecture; knowledge management; participatory planning; Delphi.

  20. Spatial vulnerability units - expert-based spatial modelling of socio-economic vulnerability in the Salzach catchment, Austria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kienberger, S.; Lang, S.; Zeil, P.

    2009-05-01

    The assessment of vulnerability has moved to centre-stage of the debate between different scientific disciplines related to climate change and disaster risk management. Composed by a combination of social, economical, physical and environmental factors the assessment implies combining different domains as well as quantitative with qualitative data and makes it therefore a challenge to identify an integrated metric for vulnerability. In this paper we define vulnerability in the context of climate change, targeting the hazard "flood". The developed methodology is being tested in the Salzach river catchment in Austria, which is largely prone to floods. The proposed methodology allows the spatial quantification of vulnerability and the identification of vulnerability units. These units build upon the geon concept which acts as a framework for the regionalization of continuous spatial information according to defined parameters of homogeneity. Using geons, we are capable of transforming singular domains of information on specific systemic components to policy-relevant, conditioned information. Considering the fact that vulnerability is not directly measurable and due to its complex dimension and social construction an expert-based approach has been chosen. Established methodologies such as Multicriteria Decision Analysis, Delphi exercises and regionalization approaches are being integrated. The method not only enables the assessment of vulnerability independent from administrative boundaries, but also applies an aggregation mode which reflects homogenous vulnerability units. This supports decision makers to reflect on complex issues such as vulnerability. Next to that, the advantage is to decompose the units to their underlying domains. Feedback from disaster management experts indicates that the approach helps to improve the design of measures aimed at strengthening preparedness and mitigation. From this point of view, we reach a step closer towards validation of the

  1. Web-based evaluation of experts' opinions on impacted maxillary canines forced eruption using CBCT.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miresmaeili, Amirfarhang; Farhadian, Nasrin; Mollabashi, Vahid; Yousefi, Faezeh

    2015-01-01

    This study aims at examining the difficulty in performing forced eruption of impacted maxillary canines, using CBCT information and according to experienced orthodontist's opinion. The second aim was to find the most important factors related to this decision. Based on a careful literature review on impacted maxillary canines, ten main factors were selected to assess difficulties associated with impacted teeth. Thirty six consecutive patients with 50 impacted maxillary canines were examined and variables were measured for each impacted tooth using Dolphin 3D software. Ten orthodontists assessed the radiographs of teeth and provided their opinion on the difficulty in bringing impacted teeth into occlusion named subjective degree of difficulty (SDD). The correlation established between mean SDD of each tooth and measured variables were analyzed by means of linear regression. Mean SDD was 6.45 ± 1.22 for all 50 teeth. Linear regression showed a high coefficient of correlation between mean SDD and age, dilacerations, vertical height, angulation and horizontal overlap (P impacted maxillary canines forced eruption, according to the opinion of experienced orthodontists, the factors age, dilaceration, angulation, overlap and vertical distance from the occlusal plane are the most important variables.

  2. Time and order estimation of paintings based on visual features and expert priors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cabral, Ricardo S.; Costeira, João P.; de La Torre, Fernando; Bernardino, Alexandre; Carneiro, Gustavo

    2011-03-01

    Time and order are considered crucial information in the art domain, and subject of many research efforts by historians. In this paper, we present a framework for estimating the ordering and date information of paintings and drawings. We formulate this problem as the embedding into a one dimension manifold, which aims to place paintings far or close to each other according to a measure of similarity. Our formulation can be seen as a manifold learning algorithm, albeit properly adapted to deal with existing questions in the art community. To solve this problem, we propose an approach based in Laplacian Eigenmaps and a convex optimization formulation. Both methods are able to incorporate art expertise as priors to the estimation, in the form of constraints. Types of information include exact or approximate dating and partial orderings. We explore the use of soft penalty terms to allow for constraint violation to account for the fact that prior knowledge may contain small errors. Our problem is tested within the scope of the PrintART project, which aims to assist art historians in tracing Portuguese Tile art "Azulejos" back to the engravings that inspired them. Furthermore, we describe other possible applications where time information (and hence, this method) could be of use in art history, fake detection or curatorial treatment.

  3. Melanoma recognition framework based on expert definition of ABCD for dermoscopic images.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abbas, Qaisar; Emre Celebi, M; Garcia, Irene Fondón; Ahmad, Waqar

    2013-02-01

    Melanoma Recognition based on clinical ABCD rule is widely used for clinical diagnosis of pigmented skin lesions in dermoscopy images. However, the current computer-aided diagnostic (CAD) systems for classification between malignant and nevus lesions using the ABCD criteria are imperfect due to use of ineffective computerized techniques. In this study, a novel melanoma recognition system (MRS) is presented by focusing more on extracting features from the lesions using ABCD criteria. The complete MRS system consists of the following six major steps: transformation to the CIEL*a*b* color space, preprocessing to enhance the tumor region, black-frame and hair artifacts removal, tumor-area segmentation, quantification of feature using ABCD criteria and normalization, and finally feature selection and classification. The MRS system for melanoma-nevus lesions is tested on a total of 120 dermoscopic images. To test the performance of the MRS diagnostic classifier, the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC) is utilized. The proposed classifier achieved a sensitivity of 88.2%, specificity of 91.3%, and AUC of 0.880. The experimental results show that the proposed MRS system can accurately distinguish between malignant and benign lesions. The MRS technique is fully automatic and can easily integrate to an existing CAD system. To increase the classification accuracy of MRS, the CASH pattern recognition technique, visual inspection of dermatologist, contextual information from the patients, and the histopathological tests can be included to investigate the impact with this system. © 2012 John Wiley & Sons A/S.

  4. Web-based evaluation of experts' opinions on impacted maxillary canines forced eruption using CBCT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amirfarhang Miresmaeili

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available AIM: This study aims at examining the difficulty in performing forced eruption of impacted maxillary canines, using CBCT information and according to experienced orthodontist's opinion. The second aim was to find the most important factors related to this decision. METHODS: Based on a careful literature review on impacted maxillary canines, ten main factors were selected to assess difficulties associated with impacted teeth. Thirty six consecutive patients with 50 impacted maxillary canines were examined and variables were measured for each impacted tooth using Dolphin 3D software. Ten orthodontists assessed the radiographs of teeth and provided their opinion on the difficulty in bringing impacted teeth into occlusion named subjective degree of difficulty (SDD. The correlation established between mean SDD of each tooth and measured variables were analyzed by means of linear regression. RESULTS: Mean SDD was 6.45 ± 1.22 for all 50 teeth. Linear regression showed a high coefficient of correlation between mean SDD and age, dilacerations, vertical height, angulation and horizontal overlap (P < 0.05. CONCLUSION: To predict the difficulty of impacted maxillary canines forced eruption, according to the opinion of experienced orthodontists, the factors age, dilaceration, angulation, overlap and vertical distance from the occlusal plane are the most important variables.

  5. An instructional design process based on expert knowledge for teaching students how mechanisms are explained.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trujillo, Caleb M; Anderson, Trevor R; Pelaez, Nancy J

    2016-06-01

    In biology and physiology courses, students face many difficulties when learning to explain mechanisms, a topic that is demanding due to the immense complexity and abstract nature of molecular and cellular mechanisms. To overcome these difficulties, we asked the following question: how does an instructor transform their understanding of biological mechanisms and other difficult-to-learn topics so that students can comprehend them? To address this question, we first reviewed a model of the components used by biologists to explain molecular and cellular mechanisms: the MACH model, with the components of methods (M), analogies (A), context (C), and how (H). Next, instructional materials were developed and the teaching activities were piloted with a physical MACH model. Students who used the MACH model to guide their explanations of mechanisms exhibited both improvements and some new difficulties. Third, a series of design-based research cycles was applied to bring the activities with an improved physical MACH model into biology and biochemistry courses. Finally, a useful rubric was developed to address prevalent student difficulties. Here, we present, for physiology and biology instructors, the knowledge and resources for explaining molecular and cellular mechanisms in undergraduate courses with an instructional design process aimed at realizing pedagogical content knowledge for teaching. Our four-stage process could be adapted to advance instruction with a range of models in the life sciences. Copyright © 2016 The American Physiological Society.

  6. Horizon 2020 priorities in clinical mental health research : Results of a consensus-based ROAMER expert survey

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Elfeddali, I.; van der Feltz-Cornelis, C.M.; van Os, J.; Knappe, S.; Vieta, E.; Wittchen, H.-U.; Obradors-Tarragó, C.

    2014-01-01

    Within the ROAMER project, which aims to provide a Roadmap for Mental Health Research in Europe, a two-stage Delphi survey among 86 European experts was conducted in order to identify research priorities in clinical mental health research. Expert consensus existed with regard to the importance of

  7. Integrative oncology for breast cancer patients: introduction of an expert-based model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dobos, Gustav J; Voiss, Petra; Schwidde, Ilka; Choi, Kyung-Eun; Paul, Anna; Kirschbaum, Barbara; Saha, Felix J; Kuemmel, Sherko

    2012-01-01

    Malignant breast neoplasms are among the most frequent forms of cancer in the Western world. Conventional treatment of breast cancer may include surgery, hormonal therapy, chemotherapy, radiation and/or immunotherapy, all of which are often accompanied by severe side effects. Complementary and alternative medicine (CAM) treatments have been shown to be effective in alleviating those symptoms. Furthermore, with patient survival rates increasing, oncologists, psychologists and other therapists have to become more sensitive to the needs of cancer survivors that go beyond than the mere alleviation of symptoms. Many CAM methods are geared to treat the patient in a holistic manner and thus are also concerned with the patient’s psychological and spiritual needs. The use of certain CAM methods may become problematic when, as frequently occurs, patients use them indiscriminately and without informing their oncologists. Herbal medicines and dietary supplements, especially, may interfere with primary cancer treatments or have other detrimental effects. Thus, expertise in this highly specialized field of integrative medicine should be available to patients so that they can be advised about the benefits and negative effects of such preparations and practices. Being a beneficial combination of conventional and CAM care, integrative oncology makes possible the holistic approach to cancer care. The concept of integrative oncology for breast cancer is jointly practiced by the Department of Internal and Integrative Medicine, Kliniken Essen-Mitte, academic teaching hospital of the University of Duisburg-Essen, and the Breast Center at Kliniken Essen-Mitte in Germany. This model is introduced here; its scope is reviewed, and its possible implications for the practice of integrative medicine are discussed. Evidence-based integrative care is crucial to the field of oncology in establishing state-of-the-art care for breast cancer patients

  8. Laserjet Printer Troubleshooting Expert System

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    SOFTLINKS DIGITAL

    -printer specialist solve their printer problems, and give time-based assistance to those who are in need of instant help when the maintenance experts are not handy. 2.0. Architecture of the LAPTEX Expert System. Working memory. (Fact base).

  9. Physiotherapy movement based classification approaches to low back pain: comparison of subgroups through review and developer/expert survey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karayannis Nicholas V

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Several classification schemes, each with its own philosophy and categorizing method, subgroup low back pain (LBP patients with the intent to guide treatment. Physiotherapy derived schemes usually have a movement impairment focus, but the extent to which other biological, psychological, and social factors of pain are encompassed requires exploration. Furthermore, within the prevailing 'biological' domain, the overlap of subgrouping strategies within the orthopaedic examination remains unexplored. The aim of this study was "to review and clarify through developer/expert survey, the theoretical basis and content of physical movement classification schemes, determine their relative reliability and similarities/differences, and to consider the extent of incorporation of the bio-psycho-social framework within the schemes". Methods A database search for relevant articles related to LBP and subgrouping or classification was conducted. Five dominant movement-based schemes were identified: Mechanical Diagnosis and Treatment (MDT, Treatment Based Classification (TBC, Pathoanatomic Based Classification (PBC, Movement System Impairment Classification (MSI, and O'Sullivan Classification System (OCS schemes. Data were extracted and a survey sent to the classification scheme developers/experts to clarify operational criteria, reliability, decision-making, and converging/diverging elements between schemes. Survey results were integrated into the review and approval obtained for accuracy. Results Considerable diversity exists between schemes in how movement informs subgrouping and in the consideration of broader neurosensory, cognitive, emotional, and behavioural dimensions of LBP. Despite differences in assessment philosophy, a common element lies in their objective to identify a movement pattern related to a pain reduction strategy. Two dominant movement paradigms emerge: (i loading strategies (MDT, TBC, PBC aimed at eliciting a phenomenon

  10. Physiotherapy movement based classification approaches to low back pain: comparison of subgroups through review and developer/expert survey

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Background Several classification schemes, each with its own philosophy and categorizing method, subgroup low back pain (LBP) patients with the intent to guide treatment. Physiotherapy derived schemes usually have a movement impairment focus, but the extent to which other biological, psychological, and social factors of pain are encompassed requires exploration. Furthermore, within the prevailing 'biological' domain, the overlap of subgrouping strategies within the orthopaedic examination remains unexplored. The aim of this study was "to review and clarify through developer/expert survey, the theoretical basis and content of physical movement classification schemes, determine their relative reliability and similarities/differences, and to consider the extent of incorporation of the bio-psycho-social framework within the schemes". Methods A database search for relevant articles related to LBP and subgrouping or classification was conducted. Five dominant movement-based schemes were identified: Mechanical Diagnosis and Treatment (MDT), Treatment Based Classification (TBC), Pathoanatomic Based Classification (PBC), Movement System Impairment Classification (MSI), and O'Sullivan Classification System (OCS) schemes. Data were extracted and a survey sent to the classification scheme developers/experts to clarify operational criteria, reliability, decision-making, and converging/diverging elements between schemes. Survey results were integrated into the review and approval obtained for accuracy. Results Considerable diversity exists between schemes in how movement informs subgrouping and in the consideration of broader neurosensory, cognitive, emotional, and behavioural dimensions of LBP. Despite differences in assessment philosophy, a common element lies in their objective to identify a movement pattern related to a pain reduction strategy. Two dominant movement paradigms emerge: (i) loading strategies (MDT, TBC, PBC) aimed at eliciting a phenomenon of centralisation of

  11. Aberrant N400 responses to phonological overlap during rhyme judgements in children at risk for dyslexia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noordenbos, Mark W; Segers, Eliane; Wagensveld, Barbara; Verhoeven, Ludo

    2013-11-06

    It is widely accepted that dyslexia is associated with difficulties in phonological awareness and that rhyme awareness in young children can predict later reading success. However, little is known regarding the underlying phonological mechanisms of rhyme awareness in dyslexia, as rhyme awareness is typically assessed using explicit behavioural measures that represent only the endpoint of processing and often lack phonological distracters. We examined event-related potentials (ERPs) in response to auditory word pairs that differed in phonological overlap during a rhyme judgement task given to 6-year-old beginning readers who were at risk for dyslexia (n=30) and typical-reading age-matched controls (n=29). ERPs were recorded in response to word pairs with various types of phonological overlap, including rhyming (e.g., wall-ball), non-rhyming overlapping (e.g., bell-ball) and non-rhyming unrelated (e.g., sock-ball) word pairs. Both groups of participants exhibited N400 responses for basic rhyme judgements vs. unrelated targets. In the typical-reading controls, the neural responses also differed between the rhyming targets and the non-rhyming overlapping targets, whereas neural responses to these targets were similar in the group of children at risk for dyslexia, indicating difficulties in their ability to process similar-sounding, non-rhyming targets. These findings suggest that typical-reading children solve the rhyme judgement task using a more analytical approach, whereas children who are at risk for dyslexia base their judgments on a comparison of overall sound similarity. © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. Creating of structure of facts for the knowledge base of an expert system for wind power plant's equipment diagnosis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Duer Stanisław

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This article describes rules and conditions for making a structure (a set of facts for an expert knowledge base of the intelligent system to diagnose Wind Power Plants’ equipment. Considering particular operational conditions of a technical object, that is a set of Wind Power Plant's equipment, this is a significant issue. A structural model of Wind Power Plant's equipment is developed. Based on that, a functional – diagnostic model of Wind Power Plant's equipment is elaborated. That model is a basis for determining primary elements of the object structure, as well as for interpreting a set of diagnostic signals and their reference signals. The key content of this paper is a description of rules for building of facts on the basis of developed analytical dependence. According to facts, their dependence is described by rules for transferring of a set of pieces of diagnostic information into a specific set of facts. The article consists of four chapters that concern particular issues on the subject.

  13. Nephrus: expert system model in intelligent multilayers for evaluation of urinary system based on scintigraphic image analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silva, Jorge Wagner Esteves da; Schirru, Roberto; Boasquevisque, Edson Mendes

    1999-01-01

    Renal function can be measured noninvasively with radionuclides in a extremely safe way compared to other diagnosis techniques. Nevertheless, due to the fact that radioactive materials are used in this procedure, it is necessary to maximize its benefits, therefore all efforts are justifiable in the development of data analysis support tools for this diagnosis modality. The objective of this work is to develop a prototype for a system model based on Artificial Intelligence devices able to perform functions related to cintilographic image analysis of the urinary system. Rules used by medical experts in the analysis of images obtained with 99m Tc+DTPA and /or 99m Tc+DMSA were modeled and a Neural Network diagnosis technique was implemented. Special attention was given for designing programs user-interface. Human Factor Engineering techniques were taking in account allowing friendliness and robustness. The image segmentation adopts a model based on Ideal ROIs, which represent the normal anatomic concept for urinary system organs. Results obtained using Artificial Neural Networks for qualitative image analysis and knowledge model constructed show the feasibility of Artificial Neural Networks for qualitative image analysis and knowledge model constructed show feasibility of Artificial Intelligence implementation that uses inherent abilities of each technique in the medical diagnosis image analysis. (author)

  14. Most appropriate placement for people with dementia: individual experts' vs. expert groups' decisions in eight European countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saks, Kai; Tiit, Ene-Margit; Verbeek, Hilde; Raamat, Katrin; Armolik, Angelika; Leibur, Jelena; Meyer, Gabriele; Zabalegui, Adelaida; Leino-Kilpi, Helena; Karlsson, Staffan; Soto, Maria; Tucker, Sue

    2015-06-01

    To investigate the extent of variability in individuals' and multidisciplinary groups' decisions about the most appropriate setting in which to support people with dementia in different European countries. Professionals' views of appropriate care depend on care systems, cultural background and professional discipline. It is not known to what extent decisions made by individual experts and multidisciplinary groups coincide. A modified nominal group approach was employed in eight countries (Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Spain, Sweden and the UK) as part of the RightTimePlaceCare Project. Detailed vignettes about 14 typical case types of people with dementia were presented to experts in dementia care (n = 161) during November and December 2012. First, experts recorded their personal judgements about the most appropriate settings (home care, assisted living, care home, nursing home) in which to support each of the depicted individuals. Second, participants worked in small groups to reach joint decisions for the same vignettes. Considerable variation was seen in individuals' recommendations for more than half the case types. Cognitive impairment, functional dependency, living situation and caregiver burden did not differentiate between case types generating high and low degrees of consensus. Group-based decisions were more consistent, but country-specific patterns remained. A multidisciplinary approach would standardize the decisions made about the care needed by people with dementia on the cusp of care home admission. The results suggest that certain individuals could be appropriately diverted from care home entry if suitable community services were available. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  15. Online-Expert: An Expert System for Online Database Selection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zahir, Sajjad; Chang, Chew Lik

    1992-01-01

    Describes the design and development of a prototype expert system called ONLINE-EXPERT that helps users select online databases and vendors that meet users' needs. Search strategies are discussed; knowledge acquisition and knowledge bases are described; and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), a decision analysis technique that ranks databases,…

  16. Expert system in PNC, 5

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tobita, Yoshimasa; Yamaguchi, Takashi; Matsumoto, Mitsuo; Ono, Kiyoshi.

    1990-01-01

    The computer code system which can evaluate the mass balance and cycle cost in nuclear fuel cycle has been developing a PNC using an artificial intelligence technique. This system is composed of the expert system, data base and analysis codes. The expert system is the most important one in the system and the content of the expert system is explained in this paper. The expert system has the three functions. The first is the function of understanding the meaning of user's questions by natural language, the second is the function of selecting the best way to solve the problem given by the user using the knowledge which is already installed in the system, and the last is the function of answering the questions. The knowledge of the experts installed in the expert system is represented by the frame-type rules. Therefore, the knowledge will be simply added to the system, and consequently the system will be easily extended. (author)

  17. Expert Systems: An Overview for Teacher-Librarians.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orwig, Gary; Barron, Ann

    1992-01-01

    Provides an overview of expert systems for teacher librarians. Highlights include artificial intelligence and expert systems; the development of the MYCIN medical expert system; rule-based expert systems; the use of expert system shells to develop a specific system; and how to select an appropriate application for an expert system. (11 references)…

  18. Capital Expert System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dowell, Laurie; Gary, Jack; Illingworth, Bill; Sargent, Tom

    1987-05-01

    Gathering information, necessary forms, and financial calculations needed to generate a "capital investment proposal" is an extremely complex and difficult process. The intent of the capital investment proposal is to ensure management that the proposed investment has been thoroughly investigated and will have a positive impact on corporate goals. Meeting this requirement typically takes four or five experts a total of 12 hours to generate a "Capital Package." A Capital Expert System was therefore developed using "Personal Consultant." The completed system is hybrid and as such does not depend solely on rules but incorporates several different software packages that communicate through variables and functions passed from one to another. This paper describes the use of expert system techniques, methodology in building the knowledge base, contexts, LISP functions, data base, and special challenges that had to be overcome to create this system. The Capital Expert System is the successful result of a unique integration of artificial intelligence with business accounting, financial forms generation, and investment proposal expertise.

  19. The reliability of structural systems operating at high temperature: Replacing engineering judgement with operational experience

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chevalier, M.J.; Smith, D.J.; Dean, D.W.

    2012-01-01

    Deterministic assessments are used to assess the integrity of structural systems operating at high temperature by providing a lower bound lifetime prediction, requiring considerable engineering judgement. However such a result may not satisfy the structural integrity assessment purpose if the results are overly conservative or conversely plant observations (such as failures) could undermine the assessment result if observed before the lower bound lifetime. This paper develops a reliability methodology for high temperature assessments and illustrates the impact and importance of managing the uncertainties within such an analysis. This is done by separating uncertainties into three classifications; aleatory uncertainty, quantifiable epistemic uncertainty and unquantifiable epistemic uncertainty. The result is a reliability model that can predict the behaviour of a structural system based upon plant observations, including failure and survival data. This can be used to reduce the over reliance upon engineering judgement which is prevalent in deterministic assessments. Highlights: ► Deterministic assessments are shown to be heavily reliant upon engineering judgment. ► Based upon the R5 procedure, a reliability model for a structural system is developed. ► Variables must be classified as either aleatory or epistemic to model their impact on reliability. ► Operation experience is then used to reduce reliance upon engineering judgment. ► This results in a model which can predict system behaviour and learn from operational experience.

  20. Development and testing of a prototype NPP information system based on the G2 expert system shell

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vegh, J.; Bodnar, M.; Brueger, L.; Tanyi, M.; Sefcsik, F.

    1994-01-01

    The components and functioning of the GPCS information system is described as applied for process monitoring and alarm generation in WWER-440 type nuclear power plant. The prototype system was developed by using the G2 real-time expert system shell, measurements were simulated by a WWER-440 compact simulator and by the archive replay of a core monitoring system. The benefits of the object oriented technology description, expert system approach and information integration are emphasized. (author) 21 refs.; 17 figs

  1. Technology Development of Salak (Salacca Zalacca) Chips With Vacuum Frying Machine Base On Expert System In Kramat-Bangkalan Regency

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosida, D. F.; Happyanto; Anggraeni; Sugiarto; Hapsari

    2018-01-01

    Agropolitan Program is one form of regional development to improve agribusiness system and effort to improve the welfare of the community. One of the leading commodities in Bangkalan agroclimates is salak which is a potentially very large commodity to be developed. Salak commodities in Kramat Bangkalan Indonesia have developed varous salak produced such as dates of salak, syrup and dodol salak. Salak chips was the target of innovation from processed salak. The Production of salak chips using frying technology with vacuum system to obtain crunchy chips. To get the results need to be developed synergy technology to combine the process conditions and the right system in producing good quality salak chips. Bangkalan Regency is the potential to continue to develop products using a variety of salak to the processed form of vacuum frying machine based on expert system so that the resulting product would be great texture, aroma and taste. This will make the area of Bangkalan, Indonesia be more independent in producing and increasing revenue.

  2. An Expert Diagnosis System for Parkinson Disease Based on Genetic Algorithm-Wavelet Kernel-Extreme Learning Machine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Avci, Derya; Dogantekin, Akif

    2016-01-01

    Parkinson disease is a major public health problem all around the world. This paper proposes an expert disease diagnosis system for Parkinson disease based on genetic algorithm- (GA-) wavelet kernel- (WK-) Extreme Learning Machines (ELM). The classifier used in this paper is single layer neural network (SLNN) and it is trained by the ELM learning method. The Parkinson disease datasets are obtained from the UCI machine learning database. In wavelet kernel-Extreme Learning Machine (WK-ELM) structure, there are three adjustable parameters of wavelet kernel. These parameters and the numbers of hidden neurons play a major role in the performance of ELM. In this study, the optimum values of these parameters and the numbers of hidden neurons of ELM were obtained by using a genetic algorithm (GA). The performance of the proposed GA-WK-ELM method is evaluated using statical methods such as classification accuracy, sensitivity and specificity analysis, and ROC curves. The calculated highest classification accuracy of the proposed GA-WK-ELM method is found as 96.81%.

  3. A first-principles generic methodology for representing the knowledge base of a process diagnostic expert system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reifman, J.; Briggs, L.L.; Wei, T.Y.C.

    1990-01-01

    In this paper we present a methodology for identifying faulty component candidates of process malfunctions through basic physical principles of conservation, functional classification of components and information from the process schematics. The basic principles of macroscopic balance of mass, momentum and energy in thermal hydraulic control volumes are applied in a novel approach to incorporate deep knowledge into the knowledge base. Additional deep knowledge is incorporated through the functional classification of process components according to their influence in disturbing the macroscopic balance equations. Information from the process schematics is applied to identify the faulty component candidates after the type of imbalance in the control volumes is matched against the functional classification of the components. Except for the information from the process schematics, this approach is completely general and independent of the process under consideration. The use of basic first-principles, which are physically correct, and the process-independent architecture of the diagnosis procedure allow for the verification and validation of the system. A prototype process diagnosis expert system is developed and a test problem is presented to identify faulty component candidates in the presence of a single failure in a hypothetical balance of plant of a liquid metal nuclear reactor plant

  4. Validation of experts versus atlas-based and automatic registration methods for subthalamic nucleus targeting on MRI

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sanchez Castro, F.J.; Cuisenaire, O.; Thiran, J.P. [Ecole Polytechnique Federale de Lausanne (EPFL) (Switzerland). Signal Processing Inst.; Pollo, C. [Ecole Polytechnique Federale de Lausanne (EPFL) (Switzerland). Signal Processing Inst.; Centre Hospitalier Universitaire Vaudois (CHUV), Lausanne (Switzerland). Dept. of Neurosurgery; Villemure, J.G. [Centre Hospitalier Universitaire Vaudois (CHUV), Lausanne (Switzerland). Dept. of Neurosurgery

    2006-03-15

    Objects: In functional stereotactic neurosurgery, one of the cornerstones upon which the success and the operating time depends is an accurate targeting. The subthalamic nucleus (STN) is the usual target involved when applying deep brain stimulation for Parkinson's disease (PD). Unfortunately, STN is usually not clearly visible in common medical imaging modalities, which justifies the use of atlas-based segmentation techniques to infer the STN location. Materials and methods: Eight bilaterally implanted PD patients were included in this study. A three-dimensional T1-weighted sequence and inversion recovery T2-weighted coronal slices were acquired pre-operatively. We propose a methodology for the construction of a ground truth of the STN location and a scheme that allows both, to perform a comparison between different non-rigid registration algorithms and to evaluate their usability to locate the STN automatically. Results: The intra-expert variability in identifying the STN location is 1.06{+-}0.61 mm while the best non-rigid registration method gives an error of 1.80{+-}0.62 mm. On the other hand, statistical tests show that an affine registration with only 12 degrees of freedom is not enough for this application. Conclusions: Using our validation-evaluation scheme, we demonstrate that automatic STN localization is possible and accurate with non-rigid registration algorithms. (orig.)

  5. Expert Systems in Reference Services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roysdon, Christine, Ed.; White, Howard D., Ed.

    1989-01-01

    Eleven articles introduce expert systems applications in library and information science, and present design and implementation issues of system development for reference services. Topics covered include knowledge based systems, prototype development, the use of artificial intelligence to remedy current system inadequacies, and an expert system to…

  6. Expert Systems: An Overview.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adiga, Sadashiv

    1984-01-01

    Discusses: (1) the architecture of expert systems; (2) features that distinguish expert systems from conventional programs; (3) conditions necessary to select a particular application for the development of successful expert systems; (4) issues to be resolved when building expert systems; and (5) limitations. Examples of selected expert systems…

  7. Professional judgement and decision-making in adventure sports coaching: the role of interaction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collins, Loel; Collins, Dave

    2016-01-01

    This qualitative study presents the view that coaching practice places demands on the coach's adaptability and flexibility. These requirements for being adaptive and flexible are met through a careful process of professional judgement and decision-making based on context-appropriate bodies of knowledge. Adventure sports coaches were selected for study on the basis that adventure sports create a hyper-dynamic environment in which these features can be examined. Thematic analysis revealed that coaches were generally well informed and practised with respect to the technical aspects of their sporting disciplines. Less positively, however, they often relied on ad hoc contextualisation of generalised theories of coaching practice to respond to the hyper-dynamic environments encountered in adventure sports. We propose that coaching practice reflects the demands of the environment, individual learning needs of the students and the task at hand. Together, these factors outwardly resemble a constraints-led approach but, we suggest, actually reflect manipulation of these parameters from a cognitive rather than an ecological perspective. This process is facilitated by a refined judgement and decision-making process, sophisticated epistemology and an explicit interaction of coaching components.

  8. Geographic information systems-based expert system modelling for shoreline sensitivity to oil spill disaster in Rivers State, Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olanrewaju Lawal

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available In the absence of adequate and appropriate actions, hazards often result in disaster. Oil spills across any environment are very hazardous; thus, oil spill contingency planning is pertinent, supported by Environmental Sensitivity Index (ESI mapping. However, a significant data gap exists across many low- and middle-income countries in aspect of environmental monitoring. This study developed a geographic information system (GIS-based expert system (ES for shoreline sensitivity to oiling. It focused on the biophysical attributes of the shoreline with Rivers State as a case study. Data on elevation, soil, relative wave exposure and satellite imageries were collated and used for the development of ES decision rules within GIS. Results show that about 70% of the shoreline are lined with swamp forest/mangroves/nympa palm, and 97% have silt and clay as dominant sediment type. From the ES, six ranks were identified; 61% of the shoreline has a rank of 9 and 19% has a rank of 3 for shoreline sensitivity. A total of 568 km out of the 728 km shoreline is highly sensitive (ranks 7–10. There is a clear indication that the study area is a complex mixture of sensitive environments to oil spill. GIS-based ES with classification rules for shoreline sensitivity represents a rapid and flexible framework for automatic ranking of shoreline sensitivity to oiling. It is expected that this approach would kick-start sensitivity index mapping which is comprehensive and openly available to support disaster risk management around the oil producing regions of the country.

  9. Hearing the Signal in the Noise: A Software-Based Content Analysis of Patterns in Responses by Experts and Students to a New Venture Investment Proposal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hostager, Todd J.; Voiovich, Jason; Hughes, Raymond K.

    2013-01-01

    The authors apply a software-based content analysis method to uncover differences in responses by expert entrepreneurs and undergraduate entrepreneur majors to a new venture investment proposal. Data analyzed via the Leximancer software package yielded conceptual maps highlighting key differences in the nature of these responses. Study methods and…

  10. Comparison of expert and job-exposure matrix-based retrospective exposure assessment of occupational carcinogens in the Netherlands Cohort Study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Offermans, N.S.M.; Vermeulen, R.; Burdorf, A.; Peters, S.; Goldbohm, R.A.; Koeman, T.; Tongeren, M. van; Kauppinen, T.; Kant, I.; Kromhout, H.; Brandt, P.A. van den

    2012-01-01

    Objectives: Reliable retrospective exposure assessment continues to be a challenge in most population-based studies. Several methodologies exist for estimating exposures retrospectively, of which case-by-case expert assessment and job-exposure matrices (JEMs) are commonly used. This study evaluated

  11. Auditors’ Personal Values and Ethical Judgement at Different Levels of Ethical Climate: A Conceptual Link

    OpenAIRE

    Ahmed Mohamed Alteer; Sofri Bin Yahya; Md Harashid Haron

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is come up with theoretical model through understanding the causes and motives behind the auditor judgements. The finding of this study that there are several ethical theories a models provide a significant understanding of ethical issues and suggested factors that may affect ethical judgement decision. The suggestion model proposes that ethical judgements are influenced by personal values via ethical sensitivity. Nonetheless, the influence of personal values on ethi...

  12. Acute cough illness in general practice - predictive value of clinical judgement and accuracy of requesting chest x-rays.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blaeuer, Silvana Romerio; Bally, Klaus; Tschudi, Peter; Martina, Benedict; Zeller, Andreas

    2013-10-16

    The aim of the study was to evaluate the accuracy of GPs' initial clinical judgement regarding presence or absence of pneumonia and to assess GPs' strategy for requesting chest X-rays in patients presenting with acute cough. GPs were asked to rate their suspicion of pneumonia based on clinical assessment alone and to protocol their decision to perform chest X-rays in 212 consecutive patients. These judgements were compared to the final diagnosis as determined by chest X-ray or uneventful recovery (four weeks). After history taking and physical examination, GPs are highly accurate in judging which patients presenting with acute cough may have pneumonia (PPV 80% [95% CI 0,66-0,89]) or not (NPV 100% [95% CI 0,97-1,0]), and in which patients chest X-rays are required or not (spearman's rho 0,54, p<0,0001).

  13. Expert opinion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ferrer, Marta; Boccon-Gibod, Isabelle; Gonçalo, Margarida

    2017-01-01

    Omalizumab (a recombinant, humanized anti-immunoglobulin-E antibody) has been shown in three pivotal Phase III trials (ASTERIA I, II and GLACIAL) and real-world studies to be effective and well-tolerated for the treatment of chronic spontaneous urticaria (CSU), and is the only licensed third......-line treatment for CSU. However, the definition of response to omalizumab treatment often differs between clinical trials, real-world studies, and daily practice of individual physicians globally. As such, a consensus definition of "complete", "partial" and "non-response" to omalizumab is required in order...... into a patient's disease burden and its changes during treatment. A potential omalizumab treatment approach based on speed and pattern of response at 1-3 and 3-6 months is suggested. In cases where there is no response during the first 1-3 months, physicians should consider reassessing the original CSU diagnosis...

  14. [How reliable are the predictors of sexual recidivism? Moral considerations can colour the judgement of pro Justitia reporters].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huls, L; Nentjes, L; Rinne, T; Verschuere, B

    2018-01-01

    When estimating the risk of sexual recidivism, the specialised behavioural pro Justitia reporter in the Netherlands generally uses risk assessment tools, although it is the reporter who pronounces the final judgement. AIM: To examine which risk factors reporters take into account when assessing the risk of sexual recidivism, to test to what degree this assessment is based on the scientific accuracy of the risk factors and to what extent the assessment is influenced by moral considerations. METHOD: 151 reporters indicated how important they considered risk factors to be in the assessment of sexual recidivism risk in adult sex offenders. This assessment was compared to the predictive value of the risk factors based on current scientific knowledge and to the moral 'unacceptability' of these factors. RESULTS: The reporters' judgement was moderately correlated to current scientific knowledge, but was also strongly correlated to moral 'unacceptability'. Morally unacceptable behaviour (e.g. a lack of empathy with victim) was given too much emphasis. On the other hand, behaviour that was morally more acceptable (e.g. behavioural problems in childhood) was given insufficient weight in the risk assessment of recidivism. CONCLUSION: There seems to be a considerable discrepancy between the reporters' judgement and the actual predictors of sexual recidivism. It is undesirable that pro Justitia reporters allow themselves to be swayed by moral consideration. The risk of bias and subjectivity points to the need for substantial restructuring of risk assessment in the cases of sexual recidivism.

  15. Naïve Bayes Approach for Expert System Design of Children Skin Identification Based on Android

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartatik; Purnomo, A.; Hartono, R.; Munawaroh, H.

    2018-03-01

    The development of technology gives some benefits to each person that we can use it properly and correctly. Technology has helped humans in every way. Such as the excess task of an expert in providing information or answers to a problem. Thus problem that often occurs is skin disease that affecting on child. That because the skin of children still vulnerable to the environment. The application was developed using the naïve Bayes algorithm. Through this application, users can consult with a system like an expert to know the symptoms that occur to the child and find the correct treatment to solve the problems.

  16. Situational judgement tests in medical education and training: Research, theory and practice: AMEE Guide No. 100.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patterson, Fiona; Zibarras, Lara; Ashworth, Vicki

    2016-01-01

    Why use SJTs? Traditionally, selection into medical education professions has focused primarily upon academic ability alone. This approach has been questioned more recently, as although academic attainment predicts performance early in training, research shows it has less predictive power for demonstrating competence in postgraduate clinical practice. Such evidence, coupled with an increasing focus on individuals working in healthcare roles displaying the core values of compassionate care, benevolence and respect, illustrates that individuals should be selected on attributes other than academic ability alone. Moreover, there are mounting calls to widen access to medicine, to ensure that selection methods do not unfairly disadvantage individuals from specific groups (e.g. regarding ethnicity or socio-economic status), so that the future workforce adequately represents society as a whole. These drivers necessitate a method of assessment that allows individuals to be selected on important non-academic attributes that are desirable in healthcare professionals, in a fair, reliable and valid way. What are SJTs? Situational judgement tests (SJTs) are tests used to assess individuals' reactions to a number of hypothetical role-relevant scenarios, which reflect situations candidates are likely to encounter in the target role. These scenarios are based on a detailed analysis of the role and should be developed in collaboration with subject matter experts, in order to accurately assess the key attributes that are associated with competent performance. From a theoretical perspective, SJTs are believed to measure prosocial Implicit Trait Policies (ITPs), which are shaped by socialisation processes that teach the utility of expressing certain traits in different settings such as agreeable expressions (e.g. helping others in need), or disagreeable actions (e.g. advancing ones own interest at others, expense). Are SJTs reliable, valid and fair? Several studies, including good

  17. Management of sickle cell disease: summary of the 2014 evidence-based report by expert panel members.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yawn, Barbara P; Buchanan, George R; Afenyi-Annan, Araba N; Ballas, Samir K; Hassell, Kathryn L; James, Andra H; Jordan, Lanetta; Lanzkron, Sophie M; Lottenberg, Richard; Savage, William J; Tanabe, Paula J; Ware, Russell E; Murad, M Hassan; Goldsmith, Jonathan C; Ortiz, Eduardo; Fulwood, Robinson; Horton, Ann; John-Sowah, Joylene

    2014-09-10

    Sickle cell disease (SCD) is a life-threatening genetic disorder affecting nearly 100,000 individuals in the United States and is associated with many acute and chronic complications requiring immediate medical attention. Two disease-modifying therapies, hydroxyurea and long-term blood transfusions, are available but underused. To support and expand the number of health professionals able and willing to provide care for persons with SCD. Databases of MEDLINE (including in-process and other nonindexed citations), EMBASE, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, CINAHL, TOXLINE, and Scopus were searched using prespecified search terms and keywords to identify randomized clinical trials, nonrandomized intervention studies, and observational studies. Literature searches of English-language publications from 1980 with updates through April 1, 2014, addressed key questions developed by the expert panel members and methodologists. Strong recommendations for preventive services include daily oral prophylactic penicillin up to the age of 5 years, annual transcranial Doppler examinations from the ages of 2 to 16 years in those with sickle cell anemia, and long-term transfusion therapy to prevent stroke in those children with abnormal transcranial Doppler velocity (≥200 cm/s). Strong recommendations addressing acute complications include rapid initiation of opioids for treatment of severe pain associated with a vasoocclusive crisis, and use of incentive spirometry in patients hospitalized for a vasoocclusive crisis. Strong recommendations for chronic complications include use of analgesics and physical therapy for treatment of avascular necrosis, and use of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor therapy for microalbuminuria in adults with SCD. Strong recommendations for children and adults with proliferative sickle cell retinopathy include referral to expert specialists for consideration of laser photocoagulation and for

  18. Expert system based on cases for a diagnosis system in real time; Sistema experto basado en casos para un sistema de diagnostico en tiempo real

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Espinosa R, Alfredo; Quintero R, Agustin; Zambrano D, S Venecia [Instituto de Investigaciones Electricas, Cuernavaca, Morelos (Mexico)

    2006-07-01

    This article presents the development of an Expert System based in the Reasoning Based on Cases methodology. Such system was performed with the purpose of creating an information system in charge of supervising and diagnosing the status of the main equipment of fossil fuel power plants for electricity generation. Here is presented the reasons why this methodology was used for the expert system and why Induce-It -the specialized tool that implements it- was also chosen, as well as the analysis made for the disposition of the operative architecture of the Expert System, the very development of this software architecture and, finally, the validation of the correct operation of this system by means of a simulator that simultaneously puts to the test the error handling of the Expert System. [Spanish] Este articulo presenta el procedimiento que siguio el desarrollo de un Sistema Experto asentado en la metodologia de Razonamiento Basado en Casos; realizado con el fin de crear un sistema de informacion encargado de supervisar y diagnosticar el estado de los equipos principales de centrales de generacion termoelectrica. Se expone justificadamente la seleccion de la metodologia del sistema experto y de la herramienta especializada que lo implementa (Induce-It), asi como el analisis realizado para la disposicion de la arquitectura operativa del Sistema Experto, el desarrollo mismo de esta arquitectura del software y, finalmente, la validacion del correcto funcionamiento de este sistema mediante un simulador que a la vez pone a prueba el manejo de errores del Sistema Experto.

  19. [Screening and management of cardiovascular risk factors in systemic lupus erythematosus: Recommendations for clinical practice based on the literature and expert opinion].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnaud, L; Mathian, A; Adoue, D; Bader-Meunier, B; Baudouin, V; Belizna, C; Bonnotte, B; Boumedine, F; Chaib, A; Chauchard, M; Chiche, L; Daugas, E; Ghali, A; Gobert, P; Gondran, G; Guettrot-Imbert, G; Hachulla, E; Hamidou, M; Haroche, J; Hervier, B; Hummel, A; Jourde-Chiche, N; Korganow, A-S; Kwon, T; Le Guern, V; Le Quellec, A; Limal, N; Magy-Bertrand, N; Marianetti-Guingel, P; Martin, T; Martin Silva, N; Meyer, O; Miyara, M; Morell-Dubois, S; Ninet, J; Papo, T; Pennaforte, J-L; Polomat, K; Pourrat, J; Queyrel, V; Raymond, I; Remy, P; Sacre, K; Schmidt, J; Sibilia, J; Viallard, J-F; Viau Brabant, A; Wahl, D; Bruckert, E; Amoura, Z

    2015-06-01

    To develop French recommendations about screening and management of cardiovascular risk factors in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). Thirty-nine experts qualified in internal medicine, rheumatology and nephrology have selected recommendations from a list developed based on evidence from the literature. For each recommendation, the level of evidence and the level of agreement among the experts were specified. Experts recommended an annual screening of cardiovascular risk factors in SLE. Statins should be prescribed for primary prevention in SLE patients based on the level of LDL-cholesterol and the number of cardiovascular risk factors, considering SLE as an additional risk factor. For secondary prevention, experts have agreed on an LDL-cholesterol target of system blockers as first line agents in case of renal involvement. Aspirin can be prescribed in patients with high cardiovascular risk or with antiphospholipid antibodies. These recommendations about the screening and management of cardiovascular risk factors in SLE can be expected to improve clinical practice uniformity and, in the longer term, to optimize the management of SLE patients. Copyright © 2014 Société nationale française de médecine interne (SNFMI). Published by Elsevier SAS. All rights reserved.

  20. Horizon 2020 priorities in clinical mental health research: results of a consensus-based ROAMER expert survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elfeddali, Iman; van der Feltz-Cornelis, Christina M; van Os, Jim; Knappe, Susanne; Vieta, Eduard; Wittchen, Hans-Ulrich; Obradors-Tarragó, Carla; Haro, Josep Maria

    2014-10-21

    Within the ROAMER project, which aims to provide a Roadmap for Mental Health Research in Europe, a two-stage Delphi survey among 86 European experts was conducted in order to identify research priorities in clinical mental health research. Expert consensus existed with regard to the importance of three challenges in the field of clinical mental health research: (1) the development of new, safe and effective interventions for mental disorders; (2) understanding the mechanisms of disease in order to be able to develop such new interventions; and (3) defining outcomes (an improved set of outcomes, including alternative outcomes) to use for clinical mental health research evaluation. Proposed actions involved increasing the utilization of tailored approaches (personalized medicine), developing blended eHealth/mHealth decision aids/guidance tools that help the clinician to choose between various treatment modalities, developing specific treatments in order to better target comorbidity and (further) development of biological, psychological and psychopharmacological interventions. The experts indicated that addressing these priorities will result in increased efficacy and impact across Europe; with a high probability of success, given that Europe has important strengths, such as skilled academics and a long research history. Finally, the experts stressed the importance of creating funding and coordinated networking as essential action needed in order to target the variety of challenges in clinical mental health research.

  1. The use of expert elicitation to quantify uncertainty in incomplete sorption data bases for Waste Isolation Pilot Plant performance assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anderson, D.R.; Trauth, K.M.; Hora, S.C.

    1991-01-01

    Iterative, annual performance-assessment calculations are being performed for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP), a planned underground repository in southeastern New Mexico, USA for the disposal of transuranic waste. The performance-assessment calculations estimate the long-term radionuclide releases from the disposal system to the accessible environment. Because direct experimental data in some areas are presently of insufficient quantity to form the basis for the required distributions. Expert judgment was used to estimate the concentrations of specific radionuclides in a brine exiting a repository room or drift as it migrates up an intruding borehole, and also the distribution coefficients that describe the retardation of radionuclides in the overlying Culebra Dolomite. The variables representing these concentrations and coefficients have been shown by 1990 sensitivity analyses to be among the set of parameters making the greatest contribution to the uncertainty in WIPP performance-assessment predictions. Utilizing available information, the experts (one expert panel addressed concentrations and a second panel addressed retardation) developed an understanding of the problem and were formally elicited to obtain probability distributions that characterize the uncertainty in fixed, but unknown, quantities. The probability distributions developed by the experts are being incorporated into the 1991 performance-assessment calculations. 16 refs., 4 tabs

  2. METHODS OF IMPROVING THE RELIABILITY OF THE CONTROL SYSTEM TRACTION POWER SUPPLY OF ELECTRIC TRANSPORT BASED ON AN EXPERT INFORMATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. O. Matusevych

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available The author proposed the numerous methods of solving the multi-criterion task – increasing of reliability of control system on the basis of expert information. The information, which allows choosing thoughtfully the method of reliability increasing for a control system of electric transport, is considered.

  3. Horizon 2020 Priorities in Clinical Mental Health Research: Results of a Consensus-Based ROAMER Expert Survey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iman Elfeddali

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Within the ROAMER project, which aims to provide a Roadmap for Mental Health Research in Europe, a two-stage Delphi survey among 86 European experts was conducted in order to identify research priorities in clinical mental health research. Expert consensus existed with regard to the importance of three challenges in the field of clinical mental health research: (1 the development of new, safe and effective interventions for mental disorders; (2 understanding the mechanisms of disease in order to be able to develop such new interventions; and (3 defining outcomes (an improved set of outcomes, including alternative outcomes to use for clinical mental health research evaluation. Proposed actions involved increasing the utilization of tailored approaches (personalized medicine, developing blended eHealth/mHealth decision aids/guidance tools that help the clinician to choose between various treatment modalities, developing specific treatments in order to better target comorbidity and (further development of biological, psychological and psychopharmacological interventions. The experts indicated that addressing these priorities will result in increased efficacy and impact across Europe; with a high probability of success, given that Europe has important strengths, such as skilled academics and a long research history. Finally, the experts stressed the importance of creating funding and coordinated networking as essential action needed in order to target the variety of challenges in clinical mental health research.

  4. The Knowledge Base of Subject Matter Experts in Teaching: A Case Study of a Professional Scientist as a Beginning Teacher

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diezmann, Carmel M.; Watters, James J.

    2015-01-01

    One method of addressing the shortage of science and mathematics teachers is to train scientists and other science-related professionals to become teachers. Advocates argue that as discipline experts these career changers can relate the subject matter knowledge to various contexts and applications in teaching. In this paper, through interviews and…

  5. ALICE Expert System

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ionita, C; Carena, F

    2014-01-01

    The ALICE experiment at CERN employs a number of human operators (shifters), who have to make sure that the experiment is always in a state compatible with taking Physics data. Given the complexity of the system and the myriad of errors that can arise, this is not always a trivial task. The aim of this paper is to describe an expert system that is capable of assisting human shifters in the ALICE control room. The system diagnoses potential issues and attempts to make smart recommendations for troubleshooting. At its core, a Prolog engine infers whether a Physics or a technical run can be started based on the current state of the underlying sub-systems. A separate C++ component queries certain SMI objects and stores their state as facts in a Prolog knowledge base. By mining the data stored in different system logs, the expert system can also diagnose errors arising during a run. Currently the system is used by the on-call experts for faster response times, but we expect it to be adopted as a standard tool by regular shifters during the next data taking period

  6. Bioethics for Technical Experts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asano, Shigetaka

    Along with rapidly expanding applications of life science and technology, technical experts have been implicated more and more often with ethical, social, and legal problems than before. It should be noted that in this background there are scientific and social uncertainty elements which are inevitable during the progress of life science in addition to the historically-established social unreliability to scientists and engineers. In order to solve these problems, therefore, we should establish the social governance with ‘relief’ and ‘reliance’ which enables for both citizens and engineers to share the awareness of the issues, to design social orders and criterions based on hypothetical sense of values for bioethics, to carry out practical use management of each subject carefully, and to improve the sense of values from hypothetical to universal. Concerning these measures, the technical experts can learn many things from the present performance in the medical field.

  7. Landscape Capacity for Ecosystem Services Provision Based on Expert Knowledge and Public Perception (Case Study from the Northwest Slovakia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bezák Peter

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Landscape represents appropriate spatial dimension for a study of ecosystems, especially due to ability to translate scientific knowledge into proper guidance for land use practice and enhancing the inclusion of local stakeholders in decision-making procedures. We tested social preferences method to reach initial and raw overview of the ecosystem services (ES distribution and their values in the study areas. Perception of experts and local residents about capacities of relevant CORINE land cover (CLC types to provide various ES was linked with Geographic Information System databases. We quantified the results on the basis of the mean values for each CLC type and the ES groups and these were interpreted also in spatial context. The expectation about perceptible capacities of forest to provide goods and services was fulfilled by responses of the experts, as was the expected difficulty to assess capacities of transitional woodland shrub or complex cultivation patterns. However, additional land cover types in question are meadows and pastures or discon-tinuous urban fabric. Mostly middle ranking values prevail in responses of local residents and uncertainty in the background is much greater comparing to the experts. On the other hand, rural people may better recognise diversified fow of services due to their everyday close connection to more ES. Large variation in the scores of some valued CLC classes in responses of the local residents and also experts seems resulting from lack of knowledge in the background and differences in viewpoint and appreciation. We understand the gaps in evaluating ES by the experts and resident population as good experience and key challenge for the further steps and fine-tuning of the research methods.

  8. Cognitive resources of physics experts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Darrick C.

    One important goal of physics education is to help students develop reasoning patterns similar to those of expert physicists. To achieve this goal, physics educators must know what makes physics experts so successful at solving challenging physics problems. However, this dimension of physics expertise has not been fully explored by the physics education research (PER) community. In this dissertation, I describe several studies I have conducted that further the PER community's understanding of physics expertise. In these studies, I investigate how expert physicists reason as they solve unfamiliar, challenging physics problems by using a resource-based model of cognition to analyze videotaped recordings of problem solving sessions. By developing a way to determine when experts are making conceptual breakthroughs I analyze what resources experts use during conceptual breakthroughs. In the first study, I show that physics conceptual breakthroughs are characterized by reasoning which combines resources related to intuitive knowledge, higher level physics based conceptual knowledge, and epistemological knowledge. In the second study, I develop a way to reliably code for epistemological resources and determine what epistemological resources experts rely on most during conceptual breakthroughs. My findings show that experts rely on contrasting cases more often than any other epistemological resource. In the third study, I use variation theory to investigate how experts use contrasting cases. I look for patterns across all instances when experts use contrasting cases to make a conceptual breakthrough and show how scientific epistemology can be used to better understand experts' use of contrasting cases. I discuss how the findings of each study can be used to inform physics education.

  9. In this issue: Time to replace doctors’ judgement with computers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simon de Lusignan

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Informaticians continue to rise to the challenge, set by the English Health Minister, of trying to replace doctors’ judgement with computers. This issue describes successes and where there are barriers. However, whilst there is progress this tends to be incremental and there are grand challenges to be overcome before computers can replace clinician. These grand challenges include: (1 improving usability so it is possible to more readily incorporate technology into clinical workflow; (2 rigorous new analytic methods that make use of the mass of available data, ‘Big data’, to create real-world evidence; (3 faster ways of meeting regulatory and legal requirements including ensuring privacy; (4 provision of reimbursement models to fund innovative technology that can substitute for clinical time and (5 recognition that innovations that improve quality also often increase cost. Informatics more is likely to support and augment clinical decision making rather than replace clinicians.

  10. Guidelines for the verification and validation of expert system software and conventional software: Evaluation of knowledge base certification methods. Volume 4

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miller, L.A.; Hayes, J.E.; Mirsky, S.M.

    1995-03-01

    This report presents the results of the Knowledge Base Certification activity of the expert systems verification and validation (V ampersand V) guideline development project which is jointly funded by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Electric Power Research Institute. The ultimate objective is the formulation of guidelines for the V ampersand V of expert systems for use in nuclear power applications. This activity is concerned with the development and testing of various methods for assuring the quality of knowledge bases. The testing procedure used was that of behavioral experiment, the first known such evaluation of any type of V ampersand V activity. The value of such experimentation is its capability to provide empirical evidence for -- or against -- the effectiveness of plausible methods in helping people find problems in knowledge bases. The three-day experiment included 20 participants from three nuclear utilities, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Technical training Center, the University of Maryland, EG ampersand G Idaho, and SAIC. The study used two real nuclear expert systems: a boiling water reactor emergency operating procedures tracking system and a pressurized water reactor safety assessment systems. Ten participants were assigned to each of the expert systems. All participants were trained in and then used a sequence of four different V ampersand V methods selected as being the best and most appropriate for study on the basis of prior evaluation activities. These methods either involved the analysis and tracing of requirements to elements in the knowledge base (requirements grouping and requirements tracing) or else involved direct inspection of the knowledge base for various kinds of errors. Half of the subjects within each system group used the best manual variant of the V ampersand V methods (the control group), while the other half were supported by the results of applying real or simulated automated tools to the knowledge bases

  11. The Genealogy of Judgement: Towards a Deep History of Academic Freedom

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuller, Steve

    2009-01-01

    The classical conception of academic freedom associated with Wilhelm von Humboldt and the rise of the modern university has a quite specific cultural foundation that centres on the controversial mental faculty of "judgement". This article traces the roots of "judgement" back to the Protestant Reformation, through its heyday as the signature…

  12. Clinical judgement within the South African clinical nursing environment: A concept analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna C. van Graan

    2016-12-01

    The findings emphasized clinical judgement as skill within the clinical nursing environment, thereby improving autonomous and accountable nursing care. These findings will assist nurse leaders and clinical nurse educators in developing a teaching-learning strategy to promote clinical judgement in undergraduate nursing students, thereby contributing to the quality of nursing care.

  13. Effects of stimulus order on discrimination processes in comparative and equality judgements: data and models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dyjas, Oliver; Ulrich, Rolf

    2014-01-01

    In typical discrimination experiments, participants are presented with a constant standard and a variable comparison stimulus and their task is to judge which of these two stimuli is larger (comparative judgement). In these experiments, discrimination sensitivity depends on the temporal order of these stimuli (Type B effect) and is usually higher when the standard precedes rather than follows the comparison. Here, we outline how two models of stimulus discrimination can account for the Type B effect, namely the weighted difference model (or basic Sensation Weighting model) and the Internal Reference Model. For both models, the predicted psychometric functions for comparative judgements as well as for equality judgements, in which participants indicate whether they perceived the two stimuli to be equal or not equal, are derived and it is shown that the models also predict a Type B effect for equality judgements. In the empirical part, the models' predictions are evaluated. To this end, participants performed a duration discrimination task with comparative judgements and with equality judgements. In line with the models' predictions, a Type B effect was observed for both judgement types. In addition, a time-order error, as indicated by shifts of the psychometric functions, and differences in response times were observed only for the equality judgement. Since both models entail distinct additional predictions, it seems worthwhile for future research to unite the two models into one conceptual framework.

  14. Students' Confidence in Their Performance Judgements: A Comparison of Different Response Scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Händel, Marion; Fritzsche, Eva Susanne

    2015-01-01

    We report results of two studies on metacognitive accuracy with undergraduate education students. Participating students were asked to judge their personal performance in a multiple-choice exam as well as to state their confidence in their performance judgement (second-order judgement [SOJ]). In each study, we compared four conditions that…

  15. Professional approaches in clinical judgements among senior and junior doctors: implications for medical education

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pilhammar Ewa

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Clinical experience has traditionally been highly valued in medical education and clinical healthcare. On account of its multi-faceted nature, clinical experience is mostly difficult to articulate, and is mainly expressed in clinical situations as professional approaches. Due to retirement, hospitals in Scandinavia will soon face a substantial decrease in the number of senior specialist doctors, and it has been discussed whether healthcare will suffer an immense loss of experienced-based knowledge when this senior group leaves the organization. Both senior specialists and junior colleagues are often involved in clinical education, but the way in which these two groups vary in professional approaches and contributions to clinical education has not been so well described. Cognitive psychology has contributed to the understanding of how experience may influence professional approaches, but such studies have not included the effect of differences in position and responsibilities that junior and senior doctors hold in clinical healthcare. In the light of the discussion above, it is essential to describe the professional approaches of senior doctors in relation to those of their junior colleagues. This study therefore aims to describe and compare the professional approaches of junior and senior doctors when making clinical judgements. Methods Critical incident technique was used in interviews with nine senior doctors and nine junior doctors in internal medicine. The interviews were subjected to qualitative content analysis. Result Senior and junior doctors expressed a variety of professional approaches in clinical judgement as follows: use of theoretical knowledge, use of prior experience of cases and courses of events, use of ethical and moral values, meeting and communicating with the patient, focusing on available information, relying on their own ability, getting support and guidance from others and being directed by the

  16. Developing a HACCP-like system for improving animal health and welfare in organic egg production - based on an expert panel analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hegelund, L; Sørensen, J T

    2007-08-01

    In the process of developing a generic Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Point (HACCP)-like system for securing animal health and welfare in organic egg production, an expert panel analysis was used to perform the initial hazard analysis. Eighteen advisers and researchers in organic egg production were included in the expert panel. In a series of four questionnaires, the expert panel first scored 34 health and welfare problems seen in Danish organic egg production. Based on scorings of severity and occurrence, 10 problems were selected for further analysis. The experts subsequently suggested and scored risk factors for those problems and finally suggested control points, alarm values indicating the need for corrective actions in order to control the risk factors and monitoring frequencies of these. The 10 selected problems were hunger, thirst, piling, crop impaction, blackhead, pasteurellosis, bone fractures, cannibalism, predators and red mites. A total of 154 different risk factors were suggested for these problems. The 41 risk factors which rated highest in a combined scoring of importance and occurrence were selected for further analysis. There was a high degree of consensus between experts when scoring both problems and risk factors. The level of consensus, as defined by an interquartile range 1, was 79% to 100% when scoring the health and welfare problems (scale 1-5) and 77% to 95% when scoring the risk factors (scale 1-4). On average, 5.8 control points were suggested for every risk factor. Alarm values were often not detailed enough to be of practical significance and further analysis is needed in order to define these. The experts were highly diverse in their suggested monitoring frequencies and establishment of monitoring schemes should be part of developing the farm specific systems. An expert panel analysis based on questionnaires was a useful tool during the first steps of developing a HACCP plan, conducting a hazard analysis and suggesting control

  17. Expert opinion vs. empirical evidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herman, Rod A; Raybould, Alan

    2014-01-01

    Expert opinion is often sought by government regulatory agencies when there is insufficient empirical evidence to judge the safety implications of a course of action. However, it can be reckless to continue following expert opinion when a preponderance of evidence is amassed that conflicts with this opinion. Factual evidence should always trump opinion in prioritizing the information that is used to guide regulatory policy. Evidence-based medicine has seen a dramatic upturn in recent years spurred by examples where evidence indicated that certain treatments recommended by expert opinions increased death rates. We suggest that scientific evidence should also take priority over expert opinion in the regulation of genetically modified crops (GM). Examples of regulatory data requirements that are not justified based on the mass of evidence are described, and it is suggested that expertise in risk assessment should guide evidence-based regulation of GM crops. PMID:24637724

  18. Speech spectrogram expert

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Johannsen, J.; Macallister, J.; Michalek, T.; Ross, S.

    1983-01-01

    Various authors have pointed out that humans can become quite adept at deriving phonetic transcriptions from speech spectrograms (as good as 90percent accuracy at the phoneme level). The authors describe an expert system which attempts to simulate this performance. The speech spectrogram expert (spex) is actually a society made up of three experts: a 2-dimensional vision expert, an acoustic-phonetic expert, and a phonetics expert. The visual reasoning expert finds important visual features of the spectrogram. The acoustic-phonetic expert reasons about how visual features relates to phonemes, and about how phonemes change visually in different contexts. The phonetics expert reasons about allowable phoneme sequences and transformations, and deduces an english spelling for phoneme strings. The speech spectrogram expert is highly interactive, allowing users to investigate hypotheses and edit rules. 10 references.

  19. Reliability and validity of expert assessment based on airborne and urinary measures of nickel and chromium exposure in the electroplating industry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yu-Cheng; Coble, Joseph B; Deziel, Nicole C; Ji, Bu-Tian; Xue, Shouzheng; Lu, Wei; Stewart, Patricia A; Friesen, Melissa C

    2014-11-01

    The reliability and validity of six experts' exposure ratings were evaluated for 64 nickel-exposed and 72 chromium-exposed workers from six Shanghai electroplating plants based on airborne and urinary nickel and chromium measurements. Three industrial hygienists and three occupational physicians independently ranked the exposure intensity of each metal on an ordinal scale (1-4) for each worker's job in two rounds: the first round was based on responses to an occupational history questionnaire and the second round also included responses to an electroplating industry-specific questionnaire. The Spearman correlation (r(s)) was used to compare each rating's validity to its corresponding subject-specific arithmetic mean of four airborne or four urinary measurements. Reliability was moderately high (weighted kappa range=0.60-0.64). Validity was poor to moderate (r(s)=-0.37-0.46) for both airborne and urinary concentrations of both metals. For airborne nickel concentrations, validity differed by plant. For dichotomized metrics, sensitivity and specificity were higher based on urinary measurements (47-78%) than airborne measurements (16-50%). Few patterns were observed by metal, assessment round, or expert type. These results suggest that, for electroplating exposures, experts can achieve moderately high agreement and (reasonably) distinguish between low and high exposures when reviewing responses to in-depth questionnaires used in population-based case-control studies.

  20. Reactor based plutonium disposition - physics and fuel behaviour benchmark studies of an OECD/NEA experts group

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    D'Hondt, P.; Gehin, J.; Na, B.C.; Sartori, E.; Wiesenack, W.

    2001-01-01

    One of the options envisaged for disposing of weapons grade plutonium, declared surplus for national defence in the Russian Federation and Usa, is to burn it in nuclear power reactors. The scientific/technical know-how accumulated in the use of MOX as a fuel for electricity generation is of great relevance for the plutonium disposition programmes. An Expert Group of the OECD/Nea is carrying out a series of benchmarks with the aim of facilitating the use of this know-how for meeting this objective. This paper describes the background that led to establishing the Expert Group, and the present status of results from these benchmarks. The benchmark studies cover a theoretical reactor physics benchmark on a VVER-1000 core loaded with MOX, two experimental benchmarks on MOX lattices and a benchmark concerned with MOX fuel behaviour for both solid and hollow pellets. First conclusions are outlined as well as future work. (author)

  1. Furthering patient adherence: A position paper of the international expert forum on patient adherence based on an internet forum discussion

    OpenAIRE

    van Dulmen, Sandra; Sluijs, Emmy; van Dijk, Liset; de Ridder, Denise; Heerdink, Rob; Bensing, Jozien

    2008-01-01

    Abstract Background As the problem of patient non-adherence persists and a solution appears hard to be found, it continues to be important to look for new ways to further the issue. We recently conducted a meta-review of adherence intervention studies which yielded a preliminary agenda for future research, practice and theory development in patient adherence. The objective of the present project was to find out to what extent adherence experts consider this agenda relevant and feasible. Metho...

  2. Randomized controlled trial of supervised patient self-testing of warfarin therapy using an internet-based expert system.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Ryan, F

    2009-08-01

    Increased frequency of prothrombin time testing, facilitated by patient self-testing (PST) of the International Normalized Ratio (INR) can improve the clinical outcomes of oral anticoagulation therapy (OAT). However, oversight of this type of management is often difficult and time-consuming for healthcare professionals. This study reports the first randomized controlled trial of an automated direct-to-patient expert system, enabling remote and effective management of patients on OAT.

  3. An outline of a model-based expert system to identify optimal remedial strategies for restoring contaminated acquatic ecosystems: The project ``moira``

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Appelgren, A.; Bergstrom, U. [Studsvik Eco and AB, Nykoping (Sweden); Brittain, J. [Oslo Univ. (Norway). LFI Zoological Museum; Gallego Diaz, E. [Madrid Universidad Politecnica (Spain). Dept. de Ingenieria Nuclear; Hakanson, L. [KEMA Nuclear, Arnhem (Niger); Monte, L. [ENEA, Centro Ricerche Casaccia, Rome (Italy). Dip. Ambiente

    1996-10-01

    The present report describes the fundamental principles of the research programme MOIRA (a model based computerized system for management support to Identify optimal remedial strategies for Restoring radionuclide contaminated Aquatic ecosystems and drainage areas) financed by the EC (European Community) (Contract N F14P-CT96-0036). The interventions to restore radionuclides contaminated aquatic systems may result in detrimental ecological, social and economical effects. Decision makers must carefully evaluate these impacts. The main aim of the MOIRA project is the development of an expert system based on validated models predicting the evolution of the radioactive contamination of fresh water systems following countermeasure applications and their relevant ecological, social and economical impacts. The expert system will help decision makers, that are not necessarily gifted with experience in environmental modeling, to identify optimal remedial strategies for restoring contaminated fresh water systems.

  4. An outline of a model-based expert system to identify optimal remedial strategies for restoring contaminated aquatic ecosystems: the project MOIRA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Appelgren, A.; Bergstrom, U.; Brittain, J.; Monte, L.

    1996-10-01

    The present report describes the fundamental principles of the research programme MOIRA (a model based computerized system for management support to Identify optimal remedial strategies for Restoring radionuclide contaminated Aquatic ecosystems and drainage areas) financed by the EC (European Community) (Contract N F14P-CT96-0036). The interventions to restore radionuclides contaminated aquatic systems may result in detrimental ecological, social and economical effects. Decision makers must carefully evaluate these impacts. The main aim of the MOIRA project is the development of an expert system based on validated models predicting the evolution of the radioactive contamination of fresh water systems following countermeasure applications and their relevant ecological, social and economical impacts. The expert system will help decision makers, that are not necessarily gifted with experience in environmental modeling, to identify optimal remedial strategies for restoring contaminated fresh water systems

  5. Managing loyalty through brand image, judgement and feelings for leveraging power brands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Panda Rajshree

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Recent developments in the marketing literature highlight the significance of consumer loyalty in driving global brands. In order to provide a clear understanding of the impact of consumer loyalty on power brands, the study explores an integrated framework for managing consumer loyalty attributes: image, judgement and feelings for leveraging power brands. The article utilizes a survey-based empirical study of 600 consumers from FMCG sector. Subsequently, factor analysis has been used to test a series of hypotheses concerning the direct effect of consumer loyalty attributes on power brands. The findings of the study suggest that a firm that pays more attention to manage their consumer loyalty attributes would be significantly benefited from the implementation of power brands and classify clusters of such loyal segments for FMCG sector.

  6. The importance of early-school radioactivity education in cultivating proper reflexive judgement on radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nishina, Kojiro

    1999-01-01

    An attempt is made to draw a preliminary conclusion on the effectiveness of early-school education on radioactivity, based on two cases of student responses. The first is the returns of questionnaires circulated at two colleges, which were typical of an engineering college and a liberal-arts college, respectively. The second is the reactions of liberal arts students to observed, unexpected levels of radiation in their environment. Their reaction was dominated by their preoccupation on radiation, rather than by the quantitative data they themselves collected on the spot. Thus classes in early schooldays are considered to play a vital role in cultivating proper judgement they are to rely on as general citizens. (author)

  7. The importance of early-school radioactivity education in cultivating proper reflexive judgement on radiation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nishina, Kojiro [Aichi Shukutoku Univ., The College of Contemporary Social Studies, Nagakute, Aichi (Japan)

    1999-09-01

    An attempt is made to draw a preliminary conclusion on the effectiveness of early-school education on radioactivity, based on two cases of student responses. The first is the returns of questionnaires circulated at two colleges, which were typical of an engineering college and a liberal-arts college, respectively. The second is the reactions of liberal arts students to observed, unexpected levels of radiation in their environment. Their reaction was dominated by their preoccupation on radiation, rather than by the quantitative data they themselves collected on the spot. Thus classes in early schooldays are considered to play a vital role in cultivating proper judgement they are to rely on as general citizens. (author)

  8. EUROPEAN COURT OF HUMAN RIGHTS JUDGEMENT AS A BASIS FOR REVIEW OF THE NATIONAL COURTS' JUDGEMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lydia Terekhova

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available УДК 347.9The purpose of the article – a critical analysis of the position of the Constitutional Court of the Russian Federation, the justification, through the analysis of the ECtHR practice and scientific work on execution of the ECtHR judgments, about the coordination of positions of national courts and the supranational body.The methodological basis for the study: general scientific methods (analysis, synthesis, comparison; private and academic (interpretation, comparative legal, formal-legal.Problems and basic scientific results:The issue of implementation of the Human Rights Court decisions at the national level oc-curs when the compensation is not enough to eliminate the revealed violations. Russian legislator opted for the situation of Human Rights by the European Court finding a violation of the provisions of the Protection of Human Rights and Fundamental Freedoms in the consideration by the court of a particular case, in connection with the decision by which the applicant applied to the ECtHR mechanism for review of the decision on the new circumstances. Supreme Court puts forward three conditions for the implementation of the revi-sion of the judicial act on a national level, which should be available at the same time: 1 the continuous nature of the adverse effects; 2 the existence of violations of the Convention or gross procedural violations; 3 a causal link between the breach and the consequences.The author point out that the regulation of possible conflicts between the Convention and national legislation is based on cooperation (not confrontation States and the European Court of Human Rights. Such practice of cooperation based on the principles of subsidiarity (addition to national rights protection system; evolutionary interpretation of the Convention (which implies flexibility, and accounting for changes in public relations; Judges dialogue and to develop advisory opinions. Consequently, the task of the Constitutional Court

  9. Influence of experience and qualification on PET-based target volume delineation. When there is no expert--ask your colleague.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doll, C; Duncker-Rohr, V; Rücker, G; Mix, M; MacManus, M; De Ruysscher, D; Vogel, W; Eriksen, J G; Oyen, W; Grosu, A-L; Weber, W; Nestle, U

    2014-06-01

    The integration of positron emission tomography (PET) information for target volume delineation in radiation treatment planning is routine in many centers. In contrast to automatic contouring, research on visual-manual delineation is scarce. The present study investigates the dependency of manual delineation on experience and qualification. A total of 44 international interdisciplinary observers each defined a [(18)F]fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG)-PET based gross tumor volume (GTV) using the same PET/CT scan from a patient with lung cancer. The observers were "experts" (E; n = 3), "experienced interdisciplinary pairs" (EP; 9 teams of radiation oncologist (RO) + nuclear medicine physician (NP)), "single field specialists" (SFS; n = 13), and "students" (S; n = 10). Five automatic delineation methods (AM) were also included. Volume sizes and concordance indices within the groups (pCI) and relative to the experts (eCI) were calculated. E (pCI = 0.67) and EP (pCI = 0.53) showed a significantly higher agreement within the groups as compared to SFS (pCI = 0.43, p = 0.03, and p = 0.006). In relation to the experts, EP (eCI = 0.55) showed better concordance compared to SFS (eCI = 0.49) or S (eCI = 0.47). The intermethod variability of the AM (pCI = 0.44) was similar to that of SFS and S, showing poorer agreement with the experts (eCI = 0.35). The results suggest that interdisciplinary cooperation could be beneficial for consistent contouring. Joint delineation by a radiation oncologist and a nuclear medicine physician showed remarkable agreement and better concordance with the experts compared to other specialists. The relevant intermethod variability of the automatic algorithms underlines the need for further standardization and optimization in this field.

  10. Evaluating a web-based health risk assessment with tailored feedback: what does an expert focus group yield compared to a web-based end-user survey?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vosbergen, Sandra; Mahieu, Guy R; Laan, Eva K; Kraaijenhagen, Roderik A; Jaspers, Monique Wm; Peek, Niels

    2014-01-02

    Increasingly, Web-based health applications are developed for the prevention and management of chronic diseases. However, their reach and utilization is often disappointing. Qualitative evaluations post-implementation can be used to inform the optimization process and ultimately enhance their adoption. In current practice, such evaluations are mainly performed with end-user surveys. However, a review approach by experts in a focus group may be easier to administer and might provide similar results. The aim of this study was to assess whether industrial design engineers in a focus group would address the same issues as end users in a Web-based survey when evaluating a commercial Web-based health risk assessment (HRA) with tailored feedback. Seven Dutch companies used the HRA as part of their corporate health management strategy. Employees using the HRA (N=2289) and 10 independent industrial designers were invited to participate in the study. The HRA consisted of four components: (1) an electronic health questionnaire, (2) biometric measurements, (3) laboratory evaluation, and (4) individually tailored feedback generated by decision support software. After participating in the HRA as end users, both end users and designers evaluated the program. End users completed an evaluation questionnaire that included a free-text field. Designers participated in a focus group discussion. Constructs from user satisfaction and technology acceptance theories were used to categorize and compare the remarks from both evaluations. We assessed and qualitatively analyzed 294 remarks of 189 end users and 337 remarks of 6 industrial designers, pertaining to 295 issues in total. Of those, 137 issues were addressed in the end-user survey and 148 issues in the designer focus group. Only 7.3% (10/137) of the issues addressed in the survey were also addressed in the focus group. End users made more remarks about the usefulness of the HRA and prior expectations that were not met. Designers made

  11. Expert systems in clinical microbiology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winstanley, Trevor; Courvalin, Patrice

    2011-07-01

    This review aims to discuss expert systems in general and how they may be used in medicine as a whole and clinical microbiology in particular (with the aid of interpretive reading). It considers rule-based systems, pattern-based systems, and data mining and introduces neural nets. A variety of noncommercial systems is described, and the central role played by the EUCAST is stressed. The need for expert rules in the environment of reset EUCAST breakpoints is also questioned. Commercial automated systems with on-board expert systems are considered, with emphasis being placed on the "big three": Vitek 2, BD Phoenix, and MicroScan. By necessity and in places, the review becomes a general review of automated system performances for the detection of specific resistance mechanisms rather than focusing solely on expert systems. Published performance evaluations of each system are drawn together and commented on critically.

  12. Hierarchical Model of Assessing and Selecting Experts

    OpenAIRE

    Chernysheva, Tatiana Yurievna; Korchuganova, Mariya Anatolievna; Borisov, V. V.; Minkov, S. L.

    2016-01-01

    Revealing experts' competences is a multi-objective issue. Authors of the paper deal with competence assessing methods of experts seen as objects, and criteria of qualities. An analytic hierarchy process of assessing and ranking experts is offered, which is based on paired comparison matrices and scores, quality parameters are taken into account as well. Calculation and assessment of experts is given as an example.

  13. Hybrid expert system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tsoukalas, L.; Ikonomopoulos, A.; Uhrig, R.E.

    1991-01-01

    This paper presents a methodology that couples rule-based expert systems using fuzzy logic, to pre-trained artificial neutral networks (ANN) for the purpose of transient identification in Nuclear Power Plants (NPP). In order to provide timely concise, and task-specific information about the may aspects of the transient and to determine the state of the system based on the interpretation of potentially noisy data a model-referenced approach is utilized. In it, the expert system performs the basic interpretation and processing of the model data, and pre-trained ANNs provide the model. having access to a set of neural networks that typify general categories of transients, the rule based system is able to perform identification functions. Membership functions - condensing information about a transient in a form convenient for a rule-based identification system characterizing a transient - are the output of neural computations. This allows the identification function to be performed with a speed comparable to or faster than that of the temporal evolution of the system. Simulator data form major secondary system pipe rupture is used to demonstrate the methodology. The results indicate excellent noise-tolerance for ANN's and suggest a new method for transient identification within the framework of Fuzzy Logic

  14. Expert software for accident identification

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dobnikar, M.; Nemec, T.; Muehleisen, A.

    2003-01-01

    Each type of an accident in a Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) causes immediately after the start of the accident variations of physical parameters that are typical for that type of the accident thus enabling its identification. Examples of these parameter are: decrease of reactor coolant system pressure, increase of radiation level in the containment, increase of pressure in the containment. An expert software enabling a fast preliminary identification of the type of the accident in Krsko NPP has been developed. As input data selected typical parameters from Emergency Response Data System (ERDS) of the Krsko NPP are used. Based on these parameters the expert software identifies the type of the accident and also provides the user with appropriate references (past analyses and other documentation of such an accident). The expert software is to be used as a support tool by an expert team that forms in case of an emergency at Slovenian Nuclear Safety Administration (SNSA) with the task to determine the cause of the accident, its most probable scenario and the source term. The expert software should provide initial identification of the event, while the final one is still to be made after appropriate assessment of the event by the expert group considering possibility of non-typical events, multiple causes, initial conditions, influences of operators' actions etc. The expert software can be also used as an educational/training tool and even as a simple database of available accident analyses. (author)

  15. The naked experts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martin, B.

    1982-01-01

    In an article critical of experts, the cases argued for and against nuclear power are discussed under the headings: environmental hazards arising from the nuclear fuel cycle; proliferation of nuclear weapons capabilities via expansion of the nuclear power industry; political and social threats and restraints of a nuclear society (terrorism, reduction in civil liberties, centralised political and economic power); economic and employment disadvantages of nuclear power; impact of uranium mining on (Australian) aboriginal culture; inadequacy of nuclear power as a solution to energy problems; advantages of a 'soft energy path' based around conservation and renewable energy technologies. (U.K.)

  16. Confirmation bias in web-based search: a randomized online study on the effects of expert information and social tags on information search and evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schweiger, Stefan; Oeberst, Aileen; Cress, Ulrike

    2014-03-26

    The public typically believes psychotherapy to be more effective than pharmacotherapy for depression treatments. This is not consistent with current scientific evidence, which shows that both types of treatment are about equally effective. The study investigates whether this bias towards psychotherapy guides online information search and whether the bias can be reduced by explicitly providing expert information (in a blog entry) and by providing tag clouds that implicitly reveal experts' evaluations. A total of 174 participants completed a fully automated Web-based study after we invited them via mailing lists. First, participants read two blog posts by experts that either challenged or supported the bias towards psychotherapy. Subsequently, participants searched for information about depression treatment in an online environment that provided more experts' blog posts about the effectiveness of treatments based on alleged research findings. These blogs were organized in a tag cloud; both psychotherapy tags and pharmacotherapy tags were popular. We measured tag and blog post selection, efficacy ratings of the presented treatments, and participants' treatment recommendation after information search. Participants demonstrated a clear bias towards psychotherapy (mean 4.53, SD 1.99) compared to pharmacotherapy (mean 2.73, SD 2.41; t173=7.67, Pinformation search and evaluation. This bias was significantly reduced, however, when participants were exposed to tag clouds with challenging popular tags. Participants facing popular tags challenging their bias (n=61) showed significantly less biased tag selection (F2,168=10.61, Pinformation as presented in blog posts, compared to supporting expert information (n=81), decreased the bias in information search with regard to blog post selection (F1,168=4.32, P=.04, partial eta squared=0.025). No significant effects were found for treatment recommendation (Ps>.33). We conclude that the psychotherapy bias is most effectively

  17. Measuring cognitive task demands using dual task methodology, subjective self-ratings, and expert judgments : A Validation Study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Révész, Andrea; Michel, Marije; Gilabert, Roger

    2016-01-01

    This study explored the usefulness of dual-task methodology, self-ratings, and expert judgements in assessing task-generated cognitive demands as a way to provide validity evidence for manipulations of task complexity. The participants were 96 students and 61 ESL teachers. The students, 48 English

  18. The role of human-at-work systems in business sustainability: perspectives based on expert and qualified production workers in a manufacturing enterprise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Genaidy, Ash M; Rinder, Maria M; Sequeira, Reynold; A-Rehim, Amal

    2010-04-01

    and enterprise levels, in terms of organisational/social/technological environment. This is particularly noted for the organisational environment. The compatibility values obtained for the experienced domains mirror those obtained for acting domains. The overall workload was assessed as requiring major redesign during the day shift and needing added responsibilities for the night shift according to both expert and qualified workers. The assessment of qualified workers is comparable with that of expert workers for the job content and immediate surroundings. Differences are more observed for process- and enterprise-based factors; thereby, providing company management different perspectives in order to devise organisational strategies conducive for optimum human and corporate health and pointing to the probable interactions of the different systems impacting individual and enterprise performance. STATEMENT OF RELEVANCE: This research examines similarities and differences between qualified and expert workers in their assessment of the worker-work environment interface. The contribution to improved understanding of the complex interactions of human-at-work and enterprise systems should be beneficial to organisations in their quest to remain competitive in a global economy.

  19. Expert robots in nuclear plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Byrd, J.S.; Fisher, J.J.; DeVries, K.R.; Martin, T.P.

    1987-01-01

    Expert robots will enhance safety and operations in nuclear plants. E. I. du Pont de Nemours and Company, Savannah River Laboratory, is developing expert mobile robots for deployment in nuclear applications at the Savannah River Plant. Knowledge-based expert systems are being evaluated to simplify operator control, to assist in navigation and manipulation functions, and to analyze sensory information. Development work using two research vehicles is underway to demonstrate semiautonomous, intelligent, expert robot system operation in process areas. A description of the mechanical equipment, control systems, and operating modes is presented, including the integration of onboard sensors. A control hierarchy that uses modest computational methods is being used to allow mobile robots to autonomously navigate and perform tasks in known environments without the need for large computer systems

  20. Expert robots in nuclear plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Byrd, J.S.; Fisher, J.J.; DeVries, K.R.; Martin, T.P.

    1987-01-01

    Expert robots enhance a safety and operations in nuclear plants. E.I. du Pont de Nemours and Company, Savannah River Laboratory, is developing expert mobile robots for deployment in nuclear applications at the Savannah River Plant. Knowledge-based expert systems are being evaluated to simplify operator control, to assist in navigation and manipulation functions, and to analyze sensory information. Development work using two research vehicles is underway to demonstrate semiautonomous, intelligence, expert robot system operation in process areas. A description of the mechanical equipment, control systems, and operating modes is presented, including the integration of onboard sensors. A control hierarchy that uses modest computational methods is being used to allow mobile robots to autonomously navigate and perform tasks in known environments without the need for large computer systems

  1. Communication skills training in oncology: a position paper based on a consensus meeting among European experts in 2009.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stiefel, F; Barth, J; Bensing, J; Fallowfield, L; Jost, L; Razavi, D; Kiss, A

    2010-02-01

    Communication in cancer care has become a major topic of interest. Since there is evidence that ineffective communication affects both patients and oncology clinicians (physicians and nurses), so-called communication skills trainings (CSTs) have been developed over the last decade. While these trainings have been demonstrated to be effective, there is an important heterogeneity with regard to implementation and with regard to evidence of different aspects of CST. In order to review and discuss the scientific literature on CST in oncology and to formulate recommendations, the Swiss Cancer League has organised a consensus meeting with European opinion leaders and experts in the field of CST, as well as oncology clinicians, representatives of oncology societies and patient organisations. On the basis of a systematic review and a meta-analysis, recommendations have been developed and agreed upon. Recommendations address (i) the setting, objectives and participants of CST, (ii) its content and pedagogic tools, (iii) organisational aspects, (iv) outcome and (v) future directions and research. This consensus meeting, on the basis of European expert opinions and a systematic review and meta-analysis, defines key elements for the current provision and future development and evaluation of CST in oncology.

  2. What Are Expert Systems?

    Science.gov (United States)

    d'Agapeyeff, A.

    1986-01-01

    Intended for potential business users, this paper describes the main characteristics of expert systems; discusses practical use considerations; presents a taxonomy of the systems; and reviews several expert system development projects in business and industry. (MBR)

  3. Induced seismicity hazard and risk by enhanced geothermal systems: an expert elicitation approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trutnevyte, Evelina; Azevedo, Inês L.

    2018-03-01

    Induced seismicity is a concern for multiple geoenergy applications, including low-carbon enhanced geothermal systems (EGS). We present the results of an international expert elicitation (n = 14) on EGS induced seismicity hazard and risk. Using a hypothetical scenario of an EGS plant and its geological context, we show that expert best-guess estimates of annualized exceedance probabilities of an M ≥ 3 event range from 0.2%-95% during reservoir stimulation and 0.2%-100% during operation. Best-guess annualized exceedance probabilities of M ≥ 5 event span from 0.002%-2% during stimulation and 0.003%-3% during operation. Assuming that tectonic M7 events could occur, some experts do not exclude induced (triggered) events of up to M7 too. If an induced M = 3 event happens at 5 km depth beneath a town with 10 000 inhabitants, most experts estimate a 50% probability that the loss is contained within 500 000 USD without any injuries or fatalities. In the case of an induced M = 5 event, there is 50% chance that the loss is below 50 million USD with the most-likely outcome of 50 injuries and one fatality or none. As we observe a vast diversity in quantitative expert judgements and underlying mental models, we conclude with implications for induced seismicity risk governance. That is, we suggest documenting individual expert judgements in induced seismicity elicitations before proceeding to consensual judgements, to convene larger expert panels in order not to cherry-pick the experts, and to aim for multi-organization multi-model assessments of EGS induced seismicity hazard and risk.

  4. Expert auditors’ services classification

    OpenAIRE

    Jolanta Wisniewska

    2013-01-01

    The profession of an expert auditor is a public trust occupation with a distinctive feature of taking responsibility for actions in the public interest. The main responsibility of expert auditors is performing financial auditing; however, expert auditors are prepared to carry out different tasks which encompass a wide plethora of financial and auditing services for different kinds of institutions and companies. The aim of the article is first of all the description of expert auditors’ service...

  5. Judgement days: moral attitudes in the wake of local disasters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urbatsch, R

    2016-01-01

    The deaths and destruction stemming from a disaster are traumatic enough to implicate victims' beliefs not only about disasters themselves but also about other social and political concerns. In particular, disasters are associated with the scapegoating of out-groups, suggesting that even deep-rooted moral concerns may shift, at least temporarily, after disasters. This study uses exposure to local natural disaster fatalities to examine moral judgements regarding gays in United States surveys from 1984-98. Survey respondents whose county has suffered a disaster feel appreciably more negatively towards gays, even though most of the disasters in this data set are relatively small and local. The increased antipathy towards gays dissipates within months, and is most marked among those who had, before the disaster, considered themselves more religious. These results raise the possibility that some groups, especially those already marginalised by society, may suffer in a backlash in the wake of a natural disaster. © 2016 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2016.

  6. Effect of caffeine on prospective and retrospective duration judgements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gruber, Ronald P; Block, Richard A

    2003-07-01

    The effects of caffeine on prospective and retrospective duration judgements were evaluated in a double-blind placebo-controlled experiment. After taking either 200 mg caffeine or a placebo, participants touched a 17-sided polygon for 15 s. Then they verbally estimated the number of angles and the duration. Participants in the prospective group were told in advance they would be making a duration estimate, whereas those in the retrospective group were not told. Caffeine reduced duration estimates in the prospective condition but not in the retrospective condition. The effect of caffeine on very long duration comparisons (the past year compared with a year at one-half and one-quarter of one's age) was also evaluated, but none was found. The findings do not support the hypothesis that caffeine affects duration experience by increasing the internal clock rate as a result of its dopamine D(2) agonist properties. The hypothesis that caffeine produces its effect by enhancing memory was considered and rejected. The most parsimonious explanation is that caffeine increased arousal level, which led to a narrowing of the focus of attention to the most salient task. Copyright 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  7. Generality of a congruity effect in judgements of relative order.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yang S; Chan, Michelle; Caplan, Jeremy B

    2014-10-01

    The judgement of relative order (JOR) procedure is used to investigate serial-order memory. Measuring response times, the wording of the instructions (whether the earlier or the later item was designated as the target) reversed the direction of search in subspan lists (Chan, Ross, Earle, & Caplan Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, 16(5), 945-951, 2009). If a similar congruity effect applied to above-span lists and, furthermore, with error rate as the measure, this could suggest how to model order memory across scales. Participants performed JORs on lists of nouns (Experiment 1: list lengths = 4, 6, 8, 10) or consonants (Experiment 2: list lengths = 4, 8). In addition to the usual distance, primacy, and recency effects, instructions interacted with serial position of the later probe in both experiments, not only in response time, but also in error rate, suggesting that availability, not just accessibility, is affected by instructions. The congruity effect challenges current memory models. We fitted Hacker's (Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Learning and Memory, 6(6), 651-675, 1980) self-terminating search model to our data and found that a switch in search direction could explain the congruity effect for short lists, but not longer lists. This suggests that JORs may need to be understood via direct-access models, adapted to produce a congruity effect, or a mix of mechanisms.

  8. Persuasiveness of expert systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dijkstra, JJ; Liebrand, WBG; Timminga, E; Liebrand, Wim B.G.

    1998-01-01

    Expert system advice is not always evaluated by examining its contents. Users can be persuaded by expert system advice because they have certain beliefs about advice given by a computer. The experiment in this paper shows that subjects (n = 84) thought that, given the same argumentation, expert

  9. Does expert opinion match the operational definition of the Lupus Low Disease Activity State (LLDAS)? A case-based construct validity study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Golder, Vera; Huq, Molla; Franklyn, Kate; Calderone, Alicia; Lateef, Aisha; Lau, Chak Sing; Lee, Alfred Lok Hang; Navarra, Sandra Teresa V; Godfrey, Timothy; Oon, Shereen; Hoi, Alberta Yik Bun; Morand, Eric Francis; Nikpour, Mandana

    2017-06-01

    To evaluate the construct validity of the Lupus Low Disease Activity State (LLDAS), a treatment target in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). Fifty SLE case summaries based on real patients were prepared and assessed independently for meeting the operational definition of LLDAS. Fifty international rheumatologists with expertise in SLE, but with no prior involvement in the LLDAS project, responded to a survey in which they were asked to categorize the disease activity state of each case as remission, low, moderate, or high. Agreement between expert opinion and LLDAS was assessed using Cohen's kappa. Overall agreement between expert opinion and the operational definition of LLDAS was 77.96% (95% CI: 76.34-79.58%), with a Cohen's kappa of 0.57 (95% CI: 0.55-0.61). Of the cases (22 of 50) that fulfilled the operational definition of LLDAS, only 5.34% (59 of 22 × 50) of responses classified the cases as moderate/high activity. Of the cases that did not fulfill the operational definition of LLDAS (28 of 50), 35.14% (492 of 28 × 50) of responses classified the cases as remission/low activity. Common reasons for discordance were assignment to remission/low activity of cases with higher corticosteroid doses than defined in LLDAS (prednisolone ≤ 7.5mg) or with SLEDAI-2K >4 due to serological activity (high anti-dsDNA antibody and/or low complement). LLDAS has good construct validity with high overall agreement between the operational definition of LLDAS and expert opinion. Discordance of results suggests that the operational definition of LLDAS is more stringent than expert opinion at defining a low disease activity state. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Contextual Factors for Finding Similar Experts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hofmann, Katja; Balog, Krisztian; Bogers, Toine

    2010-01-01

    Expertise-seeking research studies how people search for expertise and choose whom to contact in the context of a specific task. An important outcome are models that identify factors that influence expert finding. Expertise retrieval addresses the same problem, expert finding, but from a system......-centered perspective. The main focus has been on developing content-based algorithms similar to document search. These algorithms identify matching experts primarily on the basis of the textual content of documents with which experts are associated. Other factors, such as the ones identified by expertise......-seeking models, are rarely taken into account. In this article, we extend content-based expert-finding approaches with contextual factors that have been found to influence human expert finding. We focus on a task of science communicators in a knowledge-intensive environment, the task of finding similar experts...

  11. Comparing the treatment of uncertainty in Bayesian networks and fuzzy expert systems used for a human reliability analysis application

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baraldi, Piero; Podofillini, Luca; Mkrtchyan, Lusine; Zio, Enrico; Dang, Vinh N.

    2015-01-01

    The use of expert systems can be helpful to improve the transparency and repeatability of assessments in areas of risk analysis with limited data available. In this field, human reliability analysis (HRA) is no exception, and, in particular, dependence analysis is an HRA task strongly based on analyst judgement. The analysis of dependence among Human Failure Events refers to the assessment of the effect of an earlier human failure on the probability of the subsequent ones. This paper analyses and compares two expert systems, based on Bayesian Belief Networks and Fuzzy Logic (a Fuzzy Expert System, FES), respectively. The comparison shows that a BBN approach should be preferred in all the cases characterized by quantifiable uncertainty in the input (i.e. when probability distributions can be assigned to describe the input parameters uncertainty), since it provides a satisfactory representation of the uncertainty and its output is directly interpretable for use within PSA. On the other hand, in cases characterized by very limited knowledge, an analyst may feel constrained by the probabilistic framework, which requires assigning probability distributions for describing uncertainty. In these cases, the FES seems to lead to a more transparent representation of the input and output uncertainty. - Highlights: • We analyse treatment of uncertainty in two expert systems. • We compare a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) and a Fuzzy Expert System (FES). • We focus on the input assessment, inference engines and output assessment. • We focus on an application problem of interest for human reliability analysis. • We emphasize the application rather than math to reach non-BBN or FES specialists

  12. Expert systems and nuclear safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beltracchi, L.

    1990-01-01

    The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and the Electric Power Research Institute have initiated a broad-based exploration of means to evaluate the potential applications of expert systems in the nuclear industry. This exploratory effort will assess the use of expert systems to augment the diagnostic and decision-making capabilities of personnel with the goal of enhancing productivity, reliability, and performance. The initial research effort is the development and documentation of guidelines for verifying and validating (V and V) expert systems. An initial application of expert systems in the nuclear industry is to aid operations and maintenance personnel in decision-making tasks. The scope of the decision aiding covers all types of cognitive behavior consisting of skill, rule, and knowledge-based behavior. For example, procedure trackers were designed and tested to support rule-based behavior. Further, these systems automate many of the tedious, error-prone human monitoring tasks, thereby reducing the potential for human error. The paper version of the procedure contains the knowledge base and the rules and thus serves as the basis of the design verification of the procedure tracker. Person-in-the-loop tests serve as the basis for the validation of a procedure tracker. When conducting validation tests, it is important to ascertain that the human retains the locus of control in the use of the expert system

  13. Confirmation Bias in Web-Based Search: A Randomized Online Study on the Effects of Expert Information and Social Tags on Information Search and Evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oeberst, Aileen; Cress, Ulrike

    2014-01-01

    Background The public typically believes psychotherapy to be more effective than pharmacotherapy for depression treatments. This is not consistent with current scientific evidence, which shows that both types of treatment are about equally effective. Objective The study investigates whether this bias towards psychotherapy guides online information search and whether the bias can be reduced by explicitly providing expert information (in a blog entry) and by providing tag clouds that implicitly reveal experts’ evaluations. Methods A total of 174 participants completed a fully automated Web-based study after we invited them via mailing lists. First, participants read two blog posts by experts that either challenged or supported the bias towards psychotherapy. Subsequently, participants searched for information about depression treatment in an online environment that provided more experts’ blog posts about the effectiveness of treatments based on alleged research findings. These blogs were organized in a tag cloud; both psychotherapy tags and pharmacotherapy tags were popular. We measured tag and blog post selection, efficacy ratings of the presented treatments, and participants’ treatment recommendation after information search. Results Participants demonstrated a clear bias towards psychotherapy (mean 4.53, SD 1.99) compared to pharmacotherapy (mean 2.73, SD 2.41; t 173=7.67, Pbiased information search and evaluation. This bias was significantly reduced, however, when participants were exposed to tag clouds with challenging popular tags. Participants facing popular tags challenging their bias (n=61) showed significantly less biased tag selection (F 2,168=10.61, Pbias-supporting tag clouds (n=56) and balanced tag clouds (n=57). Challenging (n=93) explicit expert information as presented in blog posts, compared to supporting expert information (n=81), decreased the bias in information search with regard to blog post selection (F 1,168=4.32, P=.04, partial eta

  14. Expert system for aiding fuel exchange planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shiratori, Yoshitake.

    1992-01-01

    A fuel exchange plan is prepared based on intelligence bases such as a method of zoning a reactor core, a fuel arrangement rule and a procedure for fuel exchange, as well as initial data. Then, the fuel exchange plans are patterned to several groups based on the intelligence bases such as patterning of fuel arrangement. A typical pattern is analyzed by a reactor core analyzing code and allowance or rejection for the analyzed patterns is judged based on intelligence bases regarding life time of the reactor core, thermal limit value of fuels, burning of fuel for irradiation test. The result of the judgement is fed-back as an estimation information and the initial data and the intelligence data are added to prepare a plan again. A similar analysis is also conducted for the plan of the rejected group. The allowance or rejection is judged for all of the plans in the same manner. The intelligence bases are used and the result of the judgement is fed-back as a condition for estimation, thereby enabling to remarkably save labors and time and prepare non-typical exchange plans. (N.H.)

  15. Expert judgment for nuclear energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choi, Young Sung; Lee, Sun Ho; Lee, Byong Whi

    2000-01-01

    Public perception on nuclear energy is much influenced by subjective impressions mostly formed through sensational and dramatic news of mass media or anti-nuclear groups. However, nuclear experts, those who have more relevant knowledge and information about nuclear energy, may have reasonable opinion based on scientific facts or inferences. Thus their opinion and consensus should be examined and taken into account during the process of nuclear energy policy formulation. For the purpose of eliciting experts' opinion, the web-based on-line survey system (eBOSS) was developed. Using the survey system, experts' views on nuclear energy were tallied, analyzed and compared with the public's. Based on the survey results, the paper suggests some recommendations about the future direction of the public information program in Korea

  16. The Relation of Birth Order, Social Class, and Need Achievement to Independent Judgement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhine, W. Ray

    1974-01-01

    This article reports an investigation in which the brith order, social class, and level of achievement arousal are the variables considered when fifth and sixth-grade girls make independent judgements in performing a set task. (JH)

  17. A MIN–MAX GOAL PROGRAMMING APPROACH TO PRIORITY DERIVATION IN AHP WITH INTERVAL JUDGEMENTS

    OpenAIRE

    DIMITRIS K. DESPOTIS; DIMITRIS DERPANIS

    2008-01-01

    We deal with the problem of priority elicitation in the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) on the basis of imprecise pair-wise comparison judgements on decision elements. We propose a min–max goal programming formulation to derive the AHP priorities in the case that the decision maker provides preference judgements in the form of interval numbers. By applying variable transformations, we formulate a linear programming model that is capable of estimating the priorities from both consistent and i...

  18. NNAlign: A Web-Based Prediction Method Allowing Non-Expert End-User Discovery of Sequence Motifs in Quantitative Peptide Data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andreatta, Massimo; Schafer-Nielsen, Claus; Lund, Ole

    2011-01-01

    of data that even a single experiment can produce seriously challenges researchers with limited bioinformatics expertise, who need to handle, analyze and interpret the data before it can be understood in a biological context. Thus, there is an unmet need for tools allowing non-bioinformatics users...... associated with quantitative readouts. Here, we provide a web-based implementation of NNAlign allowing non-expert end-users to submit their data (optionally adjusting method parameters), and in return receive a trained method (including a visual representation of the identified motif) that subsequently can...

  19. WINE ADVISOR EXPERT SYSTEM USING DECISION RULES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dinuca Elena Claudia

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available In this article I focus on developing an expert system for advising the choice of wine that best matches a specific occasion. An expert system is a computer application that performs a task that would be performed by a human expert. The implementation is done using Delphi programming language. I used to represent the knowledge bases a set of rules. The rules are of type IF THEN ELSE rules, decision rules based on different important wine features.

  20. Social workers as "experts" in the family court system: is evidence-based practice a missing link or host-created knowledge?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prescott, Dana E

    2013-10-01

    The graduate school curriculum for social workers requires that students learn to critically distinguish between opinion-based knowledge and evidence-based practices, or empirically-supported interventions. Once graduated, licensed social workers are often called upon to offer diagnostic and predictive opinions as experts in a variety of macro-environments. When the family courts are that "host" environment, social workers proffer expert opinions that may categorize and label parents or children for purposes of a judge's allocation of physical or legal custody. In this article, it is suggested that the social work profession, within all three domains of education, practice, and research, should more precisely link the design and fidelity of an evidence-based practice (EBP) with its potential misapplication or warping when proffered as science in "host" environments like family courts. As Foucault and other scholars warn, the failure to verify that an intervention is applied correctly may actually enhance the risk of social injustice by interpreting and translating EBP knowledge in the non-empirical form of authority-by-license. This article, therefore, proposes that the social work profession, from the classroom to the field, has an obligation to thoroughly understand and engage interdisciplinary practices that assure respect for the strengths and limits of social work knowledge.

  1. [Development and application of a web-based expert system using artificial intelligence for management of mental health by Korean emigrants].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bae, Jeongyee

    2013-04-01

    The purpose of this project was to develop an international web-based expert system using principals of artificial intelligence and user-centered design for management of mental health by Korean emigrants. Using this system, anyone can access the system via computer access to the web. Our design process utilized principles of user-centered design with 4 phases: needs assessment, analysis, design/development/testing, and application release. A survey was done with 3,235 Korean emigrants. Focus group interviews were also conducted. Survey and analysis results guided the design of the web-based expert system. With this system, anyone can check their mental health status by themselves using a personal computer. The system analyzes facts based on answers to automated questions, and suggests solutions accordingly. A history tracking mechanism enables monitoring and future analysis. In addition, this system will include intervention programs to promote mental health status. This system is interactive and accessible to anyone in the world. It is expected that this management system will contribute to Korean emigrants' mental health promotion and allow researchers and professionals to share information on mental health.

  2. Selection of the Best Wastewater Treatment Alternative for RIPI Based on Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP and Expert Choice Software

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    faramarz Tarkian

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available RIPI as one of the largest and most important research centers in Iran is located in zone 22 of Tehran municipality. According to the environmental priorities in the region taking all necessary measures to control pollution sources is necessary. In this paper, Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP method is used for the selection of the best wastewater treatment method for RIPI. For this purpose four alternatives including SBR, Extended aeration activated sludge, Rotating MBR, Fix MBR were evaluated. These alternatives were weighted by four main criteria: Environment, Economic, Technical, Management and the defined sub-criteria ,then paired compared with respect to any form of wastewater treatment alternatives and ultimately the results was evaluated by Expert Choice software. The evaluation results indicate that Rotating MBR was the most suitable alternative of wastewater treatment method for RIPI. After the Rotating MBR, the Fix MBR, SBR and Extended activated sludge were considered suitable respectively. Degree of inconsistency is equal to 0.07, indicating that the number of paired comparisons is consistent.

  3. First consumption ever of multiple substances: applying an expert-based taxonomy to a Swiss national sample of adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berchtold, André; Akré, Christina; Jeannin, André; Michaud, Pierre-André; Suris, Joan-Carles

    2011-01-01

    The use of multiple legal and illegal substances by adolescents is a growing concern in all countries, but since no consensus about a taxonomy did emerge yet, it is difficult to understand the different patterns of consumption and to implement tailored prevention and treatment programs directed towards specific subgroups of the adolescent population. Using data from a Swiss survey on adolescent health, we analyzed the age at which ten legal and illegal substances were consumed for the first time ever by applying a method combining the strength of both automatic clustering and use of substance experts. Results were then compared to 30 socio-economic factors to establish the usefulness of and to validate our taxonomy. We also analyzed the succession of substance first use for each group. The final taxonomy consists of eight groups ranging from non-consumers to heavy drug addicts. All but four socio-economic factors were significantly associated with the taxonomy, the strongest associations being observed with health, behavior, and sexuality factors. Numerous factors influence adolescents in their decision to first try substances or to use them on a regular basis, and no factor alone can be considered as an absolute marker of problematic behavior regarding substance use. Different processes of experimentation with substances are associated with different behaviors, therefore focusing on only one substance or only one factor is not efficient. Prevention and treatment programs can then be tailored to address specific issues related to different youth subgroups. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Fuzzy Expert System based on a Novel Hybrid Stem Cell (HSC) Algorithm for Classification of Micro Array Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vijay, S Arul Antran; GaneshKumar, P

    2018-02-21

    In the growing scenario, microarray data is extensively used since it provides a more comprehensive understanding of genetic variants among diseases. As the gene expression samples have high dimensionality it becomes tedious to analyze the samples manually. Hence an automated system is needed to analyze these samples. The fuzzy expert system offers a clear classification when compared to the machine learning and statistical methodologies. In fuzzy classification, knowledge acquisition would be a major concern. Despite several existing approaches for knowledge acquisition much effort is necessary to enhance the learning process. This paper proposes an innovative Hybrid Stem Cell (HSC) algorithm that utilizes Ant Colony optimization and Stem Cell algorithm for designing fuzzy classification system to extract the informative rules to form the membership functions from the microarray dataset. The HSC algorithm uses a novel Adaptive Stem Cell Optimization (ASCO) to improve the points of membership function and Ant Colony Optimization to produce the near optimum rule set. In order to extract the most informative genes from the large microarray dataset a method called Mutual Information is used. The performance results of the proposed technique evaluated using the five microarray datasets are simulated. These results prove that the proposed Hybrid Stem Cell (HSC) algorithm produces a precise fuzzy system than the existing methodologies.

  5. HE's "Get-out-of-Jail-Free Card": The Future of Judicial Deference to the Exercise of Expert Academic Judgement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palfreyman, David

    2010-01-01

    The prime feature of the student's legal relationship with his or her university is that it is governed by contract law, and in all other aspects of life such a contract can be reviewed/investigated by the courts in the event of a dispute between the two parties to the contract. In the world of academe, however, the key aspect of the contract (the…

  6. Semi-Automated Landslide Mapping by Using an Expert Based Module Running on GIS Environment: Netcad Architect M-AHP Operator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kukul, Elvan; Yilmaz, Ezgi; Nefeslioglu, Hakan A.; Sezer, Ebru A.; Toptas, Tunc E.; Celik, Deniz; Orhun, Koray; Osna, Turgay; Ak, Serdar; Gokceoglu, Candan

    2014-05-01

    In the present study semi-automated landslide mapping of an area locating between the cities Afyon and Usak (west of Turkey) was evaluated by using an expert based modelling operator developed in Netcad Architect environment. The area considerably suffers from landslides. The main public concern of this region within this respect is due to the high speed train railway route which will connect Ankara and Izmir. The study was carried out in three main stages; (i) data production, (ii) modelling for semi-automated landslide mapping, and (iii) validation of the constructed models by using the actual landslides observed in the region. The altitude, slope gradient, slope aspect and the second derivative of topography in terms of topographical wetness index parameters, geology in terms of lithology type, and normalized difference vegetation index in terms of environmental factor were evaluated to be the main conditioning factor of active and old landslides observed in the area. Two expert based models for mapping active and old landslides were constructed by using the M-AHP operator of the Netcad Architect environment. The resultant maps represent both possible active and old landslide areas which could be encountered throughout the region. According to the results of the modelling stages, almost 7 % of the area is found to be active landslide area, and almost 13 % of the area constitutes possible old failures in the region. The validations of the constructed models were performed by using the ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristics) curve operator which was also developed in Netcad Architect environment. The area under ROC curves for the models were calculated to be 0.674 and 0.728 for active and old landslides respectively. Considering expert nature of the constructed models these results are promising, and could be evaluated in route selection assessments and suitable site selection for settlement.

  7. Factors Influencing the Application of a Biopsychosocial Perspective in Clinical Judgement of Chronic Pain: Interactive Management with Medical Students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dwyer, Christopher P; McKenna-Plumley, Phoebe E; Durand, Hannah; Gormley, Emer M; Slattery, Brian W; Harney, Owen M; MacNeela, Padraig; McGuire, Brian E

    2017-09-01

    Though there is wide support for the application of biopsychosocial perspectives in clinical judgement of chronic pain cases, such perspectives are often overlooked due to either inadequate training or attitudes favoring a biomedical approach. Recent research has indicated that despite such explanations, both established general practitioners (GP) and medical students account for some psychosocial factors when making clinical judgements regarding chronic pain cases, but report not being likely to apply these in real-world, clinical settings due to numerous factors, including available time with patients. Thus, it is evident that a greater understanding of clinical judgement-making processes and the factors that affect application of these processes is required, particularly regarding chronic pain. The aims of the current study were to investigate medical students' conceptualizations of the factors that influence application of a biopsychosocial approach to clinical judgement-making in cases of chronic pain using interactive management (IM), model the relationships among these factors, and make recommendations to chronic pain treatment policy in light of the findings. The current study used IM to identify and model factors that influence the application of a biopsychosocial approach to clinical judgement-making in cases of chronic pain, based on medical students' conceptualizations of these factors. Two university classrooms. IM is a systems thinking and action mapping strategy used to aid groups in developing outcomes regarding complex issues, through integrating contributions from individuals with diverse views, backgrounds, and perspectives. IM commonly utilizes the nominal group technique and interpretive structural modeling, which in this context were employed to help medical students identify, clarify, and model influences on the application of biopsychosocial perspectives in treating chronic pain patients. Results of IM group work revealed 7 core

  8. Being an expert

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brechet, Y.; Musseau, O.; Bruna, G.; Sperandio, M.; Roulleaux-Dugage, M.; Andrieux, S.; Metteau, L.

    2014-01-01

    This series of short articles are dedicated to the role of the expert in the enterprise. There is an important difference between a scientific counsellor and an expert, the expert, recognized by his peers, can speak publicly in his field of expertise but has a duty of transparency while the job of a scientific counsellor requires confidentiality. The making and the use of an expert in an enterprise requires a dedicated organization. The organization of the expertise in 5 enterprises in nuclear industry are considered: CEA (French Alternative Energies and Atomic Energy Commission), IRSN (Institute of Radioprotection and Nuclear Safety), AREVA, ANDRA (National Radioactive Waste Management Agency) and EDF (Electricity of France)

  9. Use your good judgement - Radiographers' knowledge in image production work

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Larsson, W.; Lundberg, N.; Hillergard, K.

    2009-01-01

    reflective attitude in practice, because work is full of problem-solving action - repetitive automatic action is not enough. In summary, radiographers need to use their good judgement in every action they perform.

  10. Expert systems as decision tools

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scott, C.K.

    1989-01-01

    The feasibility of using expert systems as an aid in regulatory compliance functions has been investigated. A literature review was carried out to identify applications of expert systems to regulatory affairs. A bibliography of the small literature on such applications was prepared. A prototype system, ARIES, was developed to demonstrate the use of an expert system as an aid to a Project Officer in assuring compliance with licence requirements. The system runs on a personal computer with a graphical interface. Extensive use is made of hypertext to link interrelated rules and requirements as well as to provide an explanation facility. Based on the performance of ARIES the development of a field version is recommended

  11. Representation and judgement of possible host rock formations and areas under consideration of geology and safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2005-08-01

    This comprehensive report issued by the Swiss National Cooperative for the Disposal of Radioactive Waste NAGRA takes a look at the representation and judgement of possible host rock formations and areas as far as safety and geological aspects are concerned. Nagra has to demonstrate the basic feasibility of the safe disposal of spent fuel (SF), vitrified high-level waste (HLW) and long-lived intermediate-level waste (ILW) in a deep geological repository, The report shows which possibilities for the disposal of SF, HLW and ILW exist in Switzerland and summarises the current state of general academic and applied geo-scientific research as well as the project-specific knowledge base that has been developed by Nagra over the past 30 years. The descriptions and assessments of the potential host rocks and areas are based on attributes that take into account experience gained both in Switzerland and abroad and are in agreement with international practice. An assessment of potential siting areas is looked at, in view of the preparation of a General Licence application, Nagra will also have to consider land-use planning and socio-economic aspects. This will be carried out in the next step according to the Sectoral Plan for Geological Disposal under the guidance of the relevant Swiss authorities

  12. Trendwatch combining expert opinion

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hendrix, E.M.T.; Kornelis, M.; Pegge, S.M.; Galen, van M.A.

    2006-01-01

    In this study, focus is on a systematic way to detect future changes in trends that may effect the dynamics in the agro-food sector, and on the combination of opinions of experts. For the combination of expert opinions, the usefulness of multilevel models is investigated. Bayesian data analysis is

  13. Expert Systems in Education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartschuh, Wayne

    This paper argues that the concepts and techniques used in the development of expert systems should be expanded and applied to the field of education, particularly in the area of intelligent tutoring systems. It is noted that expert systems are a well known area of artificial intelligence and have been proven effective in well-defined topic areas.…

  14. Combining Expert Advice Efficiently

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    W.M. Koolen-Wijkstra (Wouter); S. de Rooij (Steven)

    2008-01-01

    htmlabstractWe show how models for prediction with expert advice can be defined concisely and clearly using hidden Markov models (HMMs); standard HMM algorithms can then be used to efficiently calculate, among other things, how the expert predictions should be weighted according to the model. We

  15. Models, methods and software for distributed knowledge acquisition for the automated construction of integrated expert systems knowledge bases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dejneko, A.O.

    2011-01-01

    Based on an analysis of existing models, methods and means of acquiring knowledge, a base method of automated knowledge acquisition has been chosen. On the base of this method, a new approach to integrate information acquired from knowledge sources of different typologies has been proposed, and the concept of a distributed knowledge acquisition with the aim of computerized formation of the most complete and consistent models of problem areas has been introduced. An original algorithm for distributed knowledge acquisition from databases, based on the construction of binary decision trees has been developed [ru

  16. Hierarchical Model of Assessing and Selecting Experts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chernysheva, T. Y.; Korchuganova, M. A.; Borisov, V. V.; Min'kov, S. L.

    2016-04-01

    Revealing experts’ competences is a multi-objective issue. Authors of the paper deal with competence assessing methods of experts seen as objects, and criteria of qualities. An analytic hierarchy process of assessing and ranking experts is offered, which is based on paired comparison matrices and scores, quality parameters are taken into account as well. Calculation and assessment of experts is given as an example.

  17. Technology of building an expert system based on a set of quantitative features of tumor cell nuclei for diagnosing breast cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirillov, Vladimir

    2013-06-01

    The technology of building an expert system for diagnosing malignant nature of invasive tumors of the mammary gland based on a set of quantitative features of the cell nuclei has been developed. Its peculiarity was the presence of weighting coefficients in all the features. Quantitative features were obtained by transforming the initial morphometric data with the help of simple (evaluation of mean values and building of histograms) and complex (regression analysis) mathematical operations. The expert system consisted of one-dimensional X-matrix used for investigations and two-dimensional standard S-matrix. The X-matrix elements were assigned for filling with the quantitative features of the studied sample with a nonestablished diagnosis. The S-matrix elements contained threshold values of quantitative features from the system of diagnostic decision criteria for malignant forms of diseases and their weighting coefficients. Threshold values of nuclear features (larger or smaller) were determined taking into account the range of their values in the groups of malignant and benign pathology. Significance of quantitative features in diagnosing diseases has been assessed. The presence of weighting coefficients allowed diagnosing malignant and benign pathology in a quantitative form by the diagnostic index value. Diagnostic index was calculated by the sum of weighting coefficients of features of the studied sample, which fell within the range of system of the S-matrix diagnostic decision criteria. Clinical trials revealed high efficiency of the developed approach while diagnosis of breast cancer invasive forms at a preoperative stage. Copyright © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  18. Expert consensus statement to guide the evidence-based classification of Paralympic athletes with vision impairment: a Delphi study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ravensbergen, H.J.C.; Mann, D.L.; Kamper, S.J.

    2016-01-01

    Background Paralympic sports are required to develop evidence-based systems that allocate athletes into 'classes' on the basis of the impact of their impairment on sport performance. However, sports for athletes with vision impairment (VI) classify athletes solely based on the WHO criteria for low

  19. Comparative risk judgements for oral health hazards among Norwegian adults: a cross sectional study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Astrøm, Anne

    2002-08-20

    BACKGROUND: This study identified optimistic biases in health and oral health hazards, and explored whether comparative risk judgements for oral health hazards vary systematically with socio-economic characteristics and self-reported risk experience. METHODS: A simple random sample of 1,190 residents born in 1972 was drawn from the population resident in three counties of Norway. A total of 735 adults (51% women) completed postal questionnaires at home. RESULTS: Mean ratings of comparative risk judgements differed significantly (p < 0.001) from the mid point of the scales. T-values ranged from -13.1 and -12.1 for the perceived risk of being divorced and loosing all teeth to -8.2 and -7.8 (p < 0.001) for having gum disease and toothdecay. Multivariate analyses using General Linear Models, GLM, revealed gender differences in comparative risk judgements for gum disease, whereas social position varied systematically with risk judgements for tooth decay, gum disease and air pollution. The odds ratios for being comparatively optimistic with respect to having gum disease were 2.9, 1.9, 1.8 and 1.5 if being satisfied with dentition, having a favourable view of health situation, and having high and low involvement with health enhancing and health detrimental behaviour, respectively. CONCLUSION: Optimism in comparative judgements for health and oral health hazards was evident in young Norwegian adults. When judging their comparative susceptibility for oral health hazards, they consider personal health situation and risk behaviour experience.

  20. Integrating Evidence From Systematic Reviews, Qualitative Research, and Expert Knowledge Using Co-Design Techniques to Develop a Web-Based Intervention for People in the Retirement Transition

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Brien, Nicola; Heaven, Ben; Teal, Gemma; Evans, Elizabeth H; Cleland, Claire; Moffatt, Suzanne; Sniehotta, Falko F; White, Martin; Mathers, John C

    2016-01-01

    Background Integrating stakeholder involvement in complex health intervention design maximizes acceptability and potential effectiveness. However, there is little methodological guidance about how to integrate evidence systematically from various sources in this process. Scientific evidence derived from different approaches can be difficult to integrate and the problem is compounded when attempting to include diverse, subjective input from stakeholders. Objective The intent of the study was to describe and appraise a systematic, sequential approach to integrate scientific evidence, expert knowledge and experience, and stakeholder involvement in the co-design and development of a complex health intervention. The development of a Web-based lifestyle intervention for people in retirement is used as an example. Methods Evidence from three systematic reviews, qualitative research findings, and expert knowledge was compiled to produce evidence statements (stage 1). Face validity of these statements was assessed by key stakeholders in a co-design workshop resulting in a set of intervention principles (stage 2). These principles were assessed for face validity in a second workshop, resulting in core intervention concepts and hand-drawn prototypes (stage 3). The outputs from stages 1-3 were translated into a design brief and specification (stage 4), which guided the building of a functioning prototype, Web-based intervention (stage 5). This prototype was de-risked resulting in an optimized functioning prototype (stage 6), which was subject to iterative testing and optimization (stage 7), prior to formal pilot evaluation. Results The evidence statements (stage 1) highlighted the effectiveness of physical activity, dietary and social role interventions in retirement; the idiosyncratic nature of retirement and well-being; the value of using specific behavior change techniques including those derived from the Health Action Process Approach; and the need for signposting to local

  1. Integrating Evidence From Systematic Reviews, Qualitative Research, and Expert Knowledge Using Co-Design Techniques to Develop a Web-Based Intervention for People in the Retirement Transition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Brien, Nicola; Heaven, Ben; Teal, Gemma; Evans, Elizabeth H; Cleland, Claire; Moffatt, Suzanne; Sniehotta, Falko F; White, Martin; Mathers, John C; Moynihan, Paula

    2016-08-03

    Integrating stakeholder involvement in complex health intervention design maximizes acceptability and potential effectiveness. However, there is little methodological guidance about how to integrate evidence systematically from various sources in this process. Scientific evidence derived from different approaches can be difficult to integrate and the problem is compounded when attempting to include diverse, subjective input from stakeholders. The intent of the study was to describe and appraise a systematic, sequential approach to integrate scientific evidence, expert knowledge and experience, and stakeholder involvement in the co-design and development of a complex health intervention. The development of a Web-based lifestyle intervention for people in retirement is used as an example. Evidence from three systematic reviews, qualitative research findings, and expert knowledge was compiled to produce evidence statements (stage 1). Face validity of these statements was assessed by key stakeholders in a co-design workshop resulting in a set of intervention principles (stage 2). These principles were assessed for face validity in a second workshop, resulting in core intervention concepts and hand-drawn prototypes (stage 3). The outputs from stages 1-3 were translated into a design brief and specification (stage 4), which guided the building of a functioning prototype, Web-based intervention (stage 5). This prototype was de-risked resulting in an optimized functioning prototype (stage 6), which was subject to iterative testing and optimization (stage 7), prior to formal pilot evaluation. The evidence statements (stage 1) highlighted the effectiveness of physical activity, dietary and social role interventions in retirement; the idiosyncratic nature of retirement and well-being; the value of using specific behavior change techniques including those derived from the Health Action Process Approach; and the need for signposting to local resources. The intervention

  2. ESG - EXPERT SCRIPT GENERATOR

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooper, E. G.

    1994-01-01

    -task commands. This mechanism gives the operator the ability to build a task-hierarchy tree of increasingly powerful commands. ESG also provides automatic regeneration of scripts based on system knowledge of telerobotic environment updates. The commands generated by ESG may be displayed at the terminal screen and/or stored. ESG is implemented as a rule-based expert system written in CLIPS (C Language Integrated Production System). The system consists of a knowledge-base of task heuristics, a static (unchanged during execution) database which describes the physical features of objects, and a dynamic (may change as a result of task achievement) database which maintains changes in the environment. Capabilites are provided for adding new environmental objects and for modifying existing objects and configuration data. Options are available for interactively viewing both the static and dynamic attribute values of database items. Execution of the ESG may be suspended to allow access to system-level functions. ESG was implemented on a VAX 11/780 with the VMS 4.7 operating system using a VT100 compatible terminal. Its source code is 47% CLIPS and 53% C-language, with a memory requirement of approximately 205 KB. The program was developed in 1988.

  3. Courting the expert: a clash of culture?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caldwell, P

    2005-06-01

    This article reviews the utility of expert opinion in legal proceedings and the deployment of expert witnesses in adversarial litigation. The use of expert witnesses to assist courts in making just and fair conclusions may be contrasted with the partisan interests of those who call them. An adversarial system is a bad method of scientific enquiry and undermines the court's capacity to reach the 'right' answer. As a consequence, courts may reach the wrong conclusion based on bad science. The role of the expert as a witness places strain on an expert to provide certainty, where in fact there may be none. Recent reforms in the civil courts have changed little and the problem is even more acute in criminal trials. The expert can rely solely on the integrity of his or her own opinion, tempered with a little humility. However, when filtered through the rhetoric and advocacy of a court arena, even this may be compromised.

  4. Liquid low level waste management expert system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferrada, J.J.; Abraham, T.J.; Jackson, J.R.

    1991-01-01

    An expert system has been developed as part of a new initiative for the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) systems analysis program. This expert system will aid in prioritizing radioactive waste streams for treatment and disposal by evaluating the severity and treatability of the problem, as well as the final waste form. The objectives of the expert system development included: (1) collecting information on process treatment technologies for liquid low-level waste (LLLW) that can be incorporated in the knowledge base of the expert system, and (2) producing a prototype that suggests processes and disposal technologies for the ORNL LLLW system. 4 refs., 9 figs

  5. Geriatric assessment is superior to oncologists’ clinical judgement in identifying frailty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirkhus, Lene; Šaltytė Benth, Jūratė; Rostoft, Siri; Grønberg, Bjørn Henning; Hjermstad, Marianne J; Selbæk, Geir; Wyller, Torgeir B; Harneshaug, Magnus; Jordhøy, Marit S

    2017-01-01

    Background: Frailty is a syndrome associated with increased vulnerability and an important predictor of outcomes in older cancer patients. Systematic assessments to identify frailty are seldom applied, and oncologists’ ability to identify frailty is scarcely investigated. Methods: We compared oncologists’ classification of frailty (onc-frail) based on clinical judgement with a modified geriatric assessment (mGA), and investigated associations between frailty and overall survival. Patients ⩾70 years referred for medical cancer treatment were eligible. mGA-frailty was defined as impairment in at least one of the following: daily activities, comorbidity, polypharmacy, physical function or at least one geriatric syndrome (cognitive impairment, depression, malnutrition, falls). Results: Three hundred and seven patients were enroled, 288 (94%) completed the mGA, 286 (93%) were rated by oncologists. Median age was 77 years, 56% had metastases, 85% performance status (PS) 0–1. Overall, 104/286 (36%) were onc-frail and 140/288 (49%) mGA-frail, the agreement was fair (kappa value 0.30 (95% CI 0.19; 0.41)), and 67 mGA-frail patients who frequently had localised disease, good PS and received curative treatment, were missed by the oncologists. Only mGA-frailty was independently prognostic for survival (HR 1.61, 95% CI 1.14; 2.27; P=0.007). Conclusions: Systematic assessment of geriatric domains is needed to aid oncologists in identifying frail patients with poor survival. PMID:28664916

  6. BWR recirculation pump diagnostic expert system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chiang, S.C.; Morimoto, C.N.; Torres, M.R.

    2004-01-01

    At General Electric (GE), an on-line expert system to support maintenance decisions for BWR recirculation pumps for nuclear power plants has been developed. This diagnostic expert system is an interactive on-line system that furnishes diagnostic information concerning BWR recirculation pump operational problems. It effectively provides the recirculation pump diagnostic expertise in the plant control room continuously 24 hours a day. The expert system is interfaced to an on-line monitoring system, which uses existing plant sensors to acquire non-safety related data in real time. The expert system correlates and evaluates process data and vibration data by applying expert rules to determine the condition of a BWR recirculation pump system by applying knowledge based rules. Any diagnosis will be automatically displayed, indicating which pump may have a problem, the category of the problem, and the degree of concern expressed by the validity index and color hierarchy. The rules incorporate the expert knowledge from various technical sources such as plant experience, engineering principles, and published reports. These rules are installed in IF-THEN formats and the resulting truth values are also expressed in fuzzy terms and a certainty factor called a validity index. This GE Recirculation Pump Expert System uses industry-standard software, hardware, and network access to provide flexible interfaces with other possible data acquisition systems. Gensym G2 Real-Time Expert System is used for the expert shell and provides the graphical user interface, knowledge base, and inference engine capabilities. (author)

  7. Deconstructing Chronic Low Back Pain in the Older Adult-Step by Step Evidence and Expert-Based Recommendations for Evaluation and Treatment: Part II: Myofascial Pain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lisi, Anthony J; Breuer, Paula; Gallagher, Rollin M; Rodriguez, Eric; Rossi, Michelle I; Schmader, Kenneth; Scholten, Joel D; Weiner, Debra K

    2015-07-01

    To present an algorithm of sequential treatment options for managing myofascial pain (MP) in older adults, along with a representative clinical case. A modified Delphi process was used to synthesize evidence-based recommendations. A multidisciplinary expert panel developed the algorithm, which was subsequently refined through an iterative process of input from a primary care physician panel. We present an algorithm and supportive materials to help guide the care of older adults with MP, an important contributor to chronic low back pain (CLBP). Addressing any perpetuating factors should be the first step of managing MP. Patients should be educated on self-care approaches, home exercise, and the use of safe analgesics when indicated. Trigger point deactivation can be accomplished by manual therapy, injection therapy, dry needling, and/or acupuncture. The algorithm presented gives a structured approach to guide primary care providers in planning treatment for patients with MP as a contributor to CLBP. Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  8. Experts on public trial

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blok, Anders

    2007-01-01

    a case study of the May 2003 Danish consensus conference on environmental economics as a policy tool, the article reflects on the politics of expert authority permeating practices of public participation. Adopting concepts from the sociology of scientific knowledge (SSK), the conference is seen......-than-successful defense in the citizen perspective. Further, consensus conferences are viewed alternatively as "expert dissent conferences," serving to disclose a multiplicity of expert commitments. From this perspective, some challenges for democratizing expertise through future exercises in public participation...

  9. Comparative risk judgements for oral health hazards among Norwegian adults: a cross sectional study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Åstrøm Anne

    2002-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background This study identified optimistic biases in health and oral health hazards, and explored whether comparative risk judgements for oral health hazards vary systematically with socio-economic characteristics and self-reported risk experience. Methods A simple random sample of 1,190 residents born in 1972 was drawn from the population resident in three counties of Norway. A total of 735 adults (51% women completed postal questionnaires at home. Results Mean ratings of comparative risk judgements differed significantly (p Conclusion Optimism in comparative judgements for health and oral health hazards was evident in young Norwegian adults. When judging their comparative susceptibility for oral health hazards, they consider personal health situation and risk behaviour experience.

  10. Tropospheric ozone. Formation, properties, effects. Expert opinion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Elstner, E.F.

    1996-01-01

    The formation and dispersion of tropospheric ozone are discussed only marginally in this expert opinion; the key interest is in the effects of ground level ozone on plants, animals, and humans. The expert opinion is based on an analysis of the available scientific publications. (orig./MG) [de

  11. The Expert Syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oliva, Peter F.; Henson, Kenneth T.

    1982-01-01

    The curriculum and instruction specialist should not fall prey to the "expert syndrome," in which the specialist decides on the "best" curriculum or instructional method without considering the teacher's discipline or personality. (CJ)

  12. Experts' meeting: Maintenance '83

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1983-01-01

    The brochure presents, in full wording, 20 papers read at the experts' meeting ''Maintenance '83'' in Wiesbaden. Most of the papers discuss reliability data (acquisition, evaluation, processing) of nearly all fields of industry. (RW) [de

  13. Remote Sensing Image Analysis Without Expert Knowledge - A Web-Based Classification Tool On Top of Taverna Workflow Management System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Selsam, Peter; Schwartze, Christian

    2016-10-01

    Providing software solutions via internet has been known for quite some time and is now an increasing trend marketed as "software as a service". A lot of business units accept the new methods and streamlined IT strategies by offering web-based infrastructures for external software usage - but geospatial applications featuring very specialized services or functionalities on demand are still rare. Originally applied in desktop environments, the ILMSimage tool for remote sensing image analysis and classification was modified in its communicating structures and enabled for running on a high-power server and benefiting from Tavema software. On top, a GIS-like and web-based user interface guides the user through the different steps in ILMSimage. ILMSimage combines object oriented image segmentation with pattern recognition features. Basic image elements form a construction set to model for large image objects with diverse and complex appearance. There is no need for the user to set up detailed object definitions. Training is done by delineating one or more typical examples (templates) of the desired object using a simple vector polygon. The template can be large and does not need to be homogeneous. The template is completely independent from the segmentation. The object definition is done completely by the software.

  14. Development of an Index for the Assessment of Welfare of Finishing Pigs from Farm to Slaughter based on Expert Opinion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brandt, Pia; Rousing, Tine; Herskin, Mette S

    2017-01-01

    For pigs, the day of slaughter involves potential animal welfare threatening elements at different stages such as pick-up pens, loading, transport, unloading, lairage and race. At present no tool for assessing the welfare of finishing pigs from farm exit to stunning is available. The present study...... builds on a protocol for assessment of animal welfare of finishing pigs on the day of slaughter, a protocol which was based on the structure of the Welfare Quality® protocol for finishing pigs at an abattoir. The present study aimed to develop an animal welfare index (AWI) for the day of slaughter......, lairage and race (AWIStage) and across the stages (AWIOverall). The AWIs were tested in 5 farms including a total of 45 fattening pigs delivered to two Danish abattoirs. Possible inter-relations between the AWI and heart rate measurements were examined. For each welfare measurement within stage...

  15. Deconstructing chronic low back pain in the older adult--Step by step evidence and expert-based recommendations for evaluation and treatment part III: Fibromyalgia syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fatemi, Gita; Fang, Meika A; Breuer, Paula; Cherniak, Paul E; Gentili, Angela; Hanlon, Joseph T; Karp, Jordan F; Morone, Natalia E; Rodriguez, Eric; Rossi, Michelle I; Schmader, Kenneth; Weiner, Debra K

    2015-09-01

    To present the third in a series of articles designed to deconstruct chronic low back pain (CLBP) in older adults. The series presents CLBP as a syndrome, a final common pathway for the expression of multiple contributors rather than a disease localized exclusively to the lumbosacral spine. Each article addresses one of 12 important contributors to pain and disability in older adults with CLBP. This article focuses on fibromyalgia syndrome (FMS). A modified Delphi approach was used to create the evaluation and treatment algorithm, the table discussing the rationale behind each of the algorithm components, and the stepped-care drug recommendations. The team involved in the creation of these materials consisted of a principal investigator, a 5-member content expert panel, and a 9-member primary care panel. The evaluation and treatment recommendations were based on availability of medications and other resources within the Veterans Health Administration (VHA) facilities. However, non-VHA panelists were also involved in the development of these materials, which can be applied to both VA and civilian settings. The illustrative clinical case was taken from the clinical practice of the principal investigator. Following expert consultations and a review of the literature, we developed an evaluation and treatment algorithm with supporting materials to aid in the care of older adults with CLBP who have concomitant FMS. A case is presented that demonstrates the complexity of pain evaluation and management in older patients with CLBP and concomitant FMS. Recognition of FMS as a common contributor to CLBP in older adults and initiating treatment targeting both FMS and CLBP may lead to improved outcomes in pain and disability. Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  16. Technology of creation of an expert system for diagnosing thyroid pathology based on a set of qualitative signs of cell atypia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirillov, Vladimir; Gladyshev, Alexander; Demidchik, Evgeny

    2010-12-01

    An expert system for differential diagnosis of thyroid pathology has been developed, in which the function of transforming qualitative signs of cell atypia into the quantitative form is realized. It based on the set of qualitative signs of cell atypia and works in the mode by the question-answer principle. An expert system (software) contained the X-matrix and six standard S-matrices. The X-matrix was designed for filling with the alternative answers yes/no regarding the presence of cells with characteristic signs of atypia in the visual fields of a preparation. S-matrices characterized the main forms of thyroid diseases, such as papillary and follicular cancer, follicular adenoma, autoimmune thyroiditis, nodular colloid and diffuse toxic goiter, by their set of yes/no answers. The answers entered to the X-matrix were compared with answers of the S-matrix. Each element of each S-matrix, besides the answers yes/no, contained its weighting coefficient corresponding to a qualitative feature of a certain nosologic form. Weighting coefficient of each feature for every nosologic form was calculated by their frequency of occurrence in 30 visual fields. Comparison of X-matrices with S-matrices and verification of diagnosis according to the value of a diagnostic index with a percentage probability was performed in the automatic mode. Diagnostic index was determined by the sum of weighting coefficients of features with the coincident yes/no answers, while comparing X-matrix elements with the corresponding S-matrix elements. The software displayed on the monitor is the list of nosologic forms in the order of decreasing the diagnostic index values. Copyright © 2010 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

  17. Pre-return-to-work medical consultation for low back pain workers. Good practice recommendations based on systematic review and expert consensus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petit, A; Rozenberg, S; Fassier, J B; Rousseau, S; Mairiaux, P; Roquelaure, Y

    2015-10-01

    The pre-return-to-work medical consultation during sick leave for low back pain (LBP) aims at assessing the worker's ability to resume working without risk for his/her health, and anticipating any difficulties inherent to returning to work and job retention. This article summarizes the good practices guidelines proposed by the French Society of Occupational Medicine (SFMT) and the French National Health Authority (HAS), and published in October 2013. Good practices guidelines developed by a multidisciplinary and independent task force (24 experts) and peer review committee (50 experts) based on a literature review from 1990 to 2012, according to the HAS methodology. According to the labour regulations, workers can request a medical consultation with their occupational physician at any time. The pre-return-to-work consultation precedes the effective return-to-work and can be requested by the employee regardless of their sick leave duration. It must be scheduled early enough to: (i) deliver reassuring information regarding risks to the lower back and managing LBP; (ii) evaluate prognostic factors of chronicity and prolonged disability in relations to LBP and its physical, social and occupational consequences in order to implement the necessary conditions for returning to work; (iii) support and promote staying at work by taking into account all medical, social and occupational aspects of the situation and ensure proper coordination between the different actors. A better understanding of the pre-return-to-work consultation would improve collaboration and coordination of actions to facilitate resuming work and job retention for patients with LBP. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  18. Expert Opinion in SR 97 and the SKI/SSI Joint Review of SR 97

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hora, Stephen

    2002-09-01

    The role of sensitivity and uncertainty analyses for radioactive waste disposal assessments is reviewed. The report covers a description of the these concepts were applied in the authorities' review of the safety report SR 97. With regard to the use of expert knowledge, the most significant weakness of SR 97 is absence of any standards, procedures, and even definitions for expert judgment. This situation needs to be dealt with by SKB in the near future as it denigrates the portions of the study that are well done. In developing expert judgment processes, SSI should ensure that SKB creates procedures that guarantee traceability and transparency. This will become very important as the repository system matures and receives greater public scrutiny. Both in the area of scenario creation and expert judgement, there are processes that have gained international acceptance. It would be in the best interest of SKB, and the public, to adhere these accepted approaches

  19. Expert Opinion in SR 97 and the SKI/SSI Joint Review of SR 97

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hora, Stephen

    2002-09-01

    The role of sensitivity and uncertainty analyses for radioactive waste disposal assessments is reviewed. The report covers a description of the these concepts were applied in the authorities' review of the safety report SR 97. With regard to the use of expert knowledge, the most significant weakness of SR 97 is absence of any standards, procedures, and even definitions for expert judgment. This situation needs to be dealt with by SKB in the near future as it denigrates the portions of the study that are well done. In developing expert judgment processes, SSI should ensure that SKB creates procedures that guarantee traceability and transparency. This will become very important as the repository system matures and receives greater public scrutiny. Both in the area of scenario creation and expert judgement, there are processes that have gained international acceptance. It would be in the best interest of SKB, and the public, to adhere these accepted approaches.

  20. Expert system for estimating LWR plutonium production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sandquist, G.M.

    1988-01-01

    An Artificial Intelligence-Expert System called APES (Analysis of Proliferation by Expert System) has been developed and tested to permit a non proliferation expert to evaluate the capability and capacity of a specified LWR reactor and PUREX reprocessing system for producing and separating plutonium even when system information may be limited and uncertain. APES employs an expert system coded in LISP and based upon an HP-RL (Hewlett Packard-Representational Language) Expert System Shell. The user I/O interface communicates with a blackboard and the knowledge base which contains the quantitative models required to describe the reactor, selected fission product production and radioactive decay processes, Purex reprocessing and ancillary knowledge

  1. Developing management packages for acid sulphate soils based on farmer and expert knowledge : field study in the Mekong Delta, Viet Nam

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Quang Tri, Le

    1996-01-01


    Effective interaction of farmers' expertise and expert knowledge has been a special point of attention for this study. The objectives of the study were to describe the process of interaction between farmers and experts in improving the use of acid sulphate soils and to point out

  2. A methodology for the automated creation of fuzzy expert systems for ischaemic and arrhythmic beat classification based on a set of rules obtained by a decision tree.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Exarchos, Themis P; Tsipouras, Markos G; Exarchos, Costas P; Papaloukas, Costas; Fotiadis, Dimitrios I; Michalis, Lampros K

    2007-07-01

    In the current work we propose a methodology for the automated creation of fuzzy expert systems, applied in ischaemic and arrhythmic beat classification. The proposed methodology automatically creates a fuzzy expert system from an initial training dataset. The approach consists of three stages: (a) extraction of a crisp set of rules from a decision tree induced from the training dataset, (b) transformation of the crisp set of rules into a fuzzy model and (c) optimization of the fuzzy model's parameters using global optimization. The above methodology is employed in order to create fuzzy expert systems for ischaemic and arrhythmic beat classification in ECG recordings. The fuzzy expert system for ischaemic beat detection is evaluated in a cardiac beat dataset that was constructed using recordings from the European Society of Cardiology ST-T database. The arrhythmic beat classification fuzzy expert system is evaluated using the MIT-BIH arrhythmia database. The fuzzy expert system for ischaemic beat classification reported 91% sensitivity and 92% specificity. The arrhythmic beat classification fuzzy expert system reported 96% average sensitivity and 99% average specificity for all categories. The proposed methodology provides high accuracy and the ability to interpret the decisions made. The fuzzy expert systems for ischaemic and arrhythmic beat classification compare well with previously reported results, indicating that they could be part of an overall clinical system for ECG analysis and diagnosis.

  3. An expert-based approach to forest road network planning by combining Delphi and spatial multi-criteria evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayati, Elyas; Majnounian, Baris; Abdi, Ehsan; Sessions, John; Makhdoum, Majid

    2013-02-01

    Changes in forest landscapes resulting from road construction have increased remarkably in the last few years. On the other hand, the sustainable management of forest resources can only be achieved through a well-organized road network. In order to minimize the environmental impacts of forest roads, forest road managers must design the road network efficiently and environmentally as well. Efficient planning methodologies can assist forest road managers in considering the technical, economic, and environmental factors that affect forest road planning. This paper describes a three-stage methodology using the Delphi method for selecting the important criteria, the Analytic Hierarchy Process for obtaining the relative importance of the criteria, and finally, a spatial multi-criteria evaluation in a geographic information system (GIS) environment for identifying the lowest-impact road network alternative. Results of the Delphi method revealed that ground slope, lithology, distance from stream network, distance from faults, landslide susceptibility, erosion susceptibility, geology, and soil texture are the most important criteria for forest road planning in the study area. The suitability map for road planning was then obtained by combining the fuzzy map layers of these criteria with respect to their weights. Nine road network alternatives were designed using PEGGER, an ArcView GIS extension, and finally, their values were extracted from the suitability map. Results showed that the methodology was useful for identifying road that met environmental and cost considerations. Based on this work, we suggest future work in forest road planning using multi-criteria evaluation and decision making be considered in other regions and that the road planning criteria identified in this study may be useful.

  4. The «PBL WORKING ENVIRONMENT» as interactive and expert system to learn the problem-based learning method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Susana Correnti

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The «PBL working environment» is a virtual environment developed in the framework of SCENE project (profeSsional development for an effeCtive PBL approach: a practical experiENce through ICT-enabled lEarning solution, co-funded by the European Lifelong Learning Program. The «PBL working environment» is devoted to prepare headmasters and teachers of secondary and vocational schools to use Problem-Based Learning (PBL pedagogy effectively. It is a student-centered pedagogy where learners are «actively» engaged in real world problems to solve or challenges to meet. Students develop problem-solving, self-directed learning and team skills. The «PBL working environment» is an virtual tool including three main elements: e-learning platform, virtual facilitator and PBL repository. Teachers, trainers and headmasters/school managers learn the PBL pedagogy by attending an on-line course (e-learning platform delivered through the «inductive method». It allows learners to experience PBL approach, by practicing it stage by stage, and then learn to turn practice into theory by abstracting their experience to build a theoretical understanding. Since generating the proper scenario is the most critical aspect of PBL, after benefiting from the on-line course, users can benefit from a further support: the Virtual Facilitator. It provides tips and hints on how correctly design a problem scenario and by asking questions to collect data on user's specific needs. The Virtual Facilitator is able to provide a/or more suitable example(s which match as closest as possible the teacher/trainer need. Finally, users can share problem scenarios and projects of different subjects of studies and with different characteristics uploaded and downloaded in the PBL repository.

  5. Educational and laboratory base for the expert training on physical protection of nuclear materials: the requirements and experience of practical implementation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bondarev, P.V.; Pogozhin, N.S.; Ryzhukhin, D.V.; Tolstoy, A.I.

    2002-01-01

    Full text: In expert training on physical protection of nuclear materials (NMPP) an educational and laboratory base has special importance. In these laboratories the students receive practical skills concerning physical protection systems (PPS). The basic requirements for creating such base are formulated in a certain educational program implemented at an educational institution. Thus it is necessary to take into account the following features of a modern nuclear object PPS: restriction of an object visiting with the purpose of acquaintance with features of a certain object PPS; dynamical change of PPS component nomenclature; increase of use of computer facilities for managing all PPS subsystems; increase of integration degree of separate subsystems in a uniform PPS complex; high cost of PPS components. Taking that into consideration a university, which assumes to begin the expert training on NMPP, is compelled to solve the following tasks: creation of its own laboratory base. The implementation of practical occupations with visiting a nuclear object cannot be executed practically; definition of quantity and structure of educational laboratories. Thus the features of the implemented educational plan should be taken into account in addition; optimization of expenses on laboratory creation. The regular updating of laboratory equipment structure is impossible in a practical manner. Therefore unique correct decision is to supply laboratories with the equipment, which uses the typical technological decisions on performing the basic PPS functions (detection, delay, estimation of a situation, neutralization); development of laboratory work conducting procedures (laboratory practical works); technical support of the created laboratories. The certain experience of solving the listed tasks is accumulated at the Moscow Engineering Physics Institute (State University) (MEPhl) while implementing 'Physical Protection, Control and Accountability of Nuclear Materials' master

  6. A brief history and technical review of the expert system research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Haocheng

    2017-09-01

    The expert system is a computer system that emulates the decision-making ability of a human expert, which aims to solve complex problems by reasoning knowledge. It is an important branch of artificial intelligence. In this paper, firstly, we briefly introduce the development and basic structure of the expert system. Then, from the perspective of the enabling technology, we classify the current expert systems and elaborate four expert systems: The Rule-Based Expert System, the Framework-Based Expert System, the Fuzzy Logic-Based Expert System and the Expert System Based on Neural Network.

  7. From Risk Analysis to the Safety Case. Values in Risk Assessments. A Report Based on Interviews with Experts in the Nuclear Waste Programs in Sweden and Finland. A Report from the RISCOM II Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Drottz Sjoeberg, Britt-Marie

    2004-06-01

    The report focuses on values in risk assessment, and is based on interviews with safety assessment experts and persons working at the national authorities in Sweden and Finland working in the area of nuclear waste management. The interviews contained questions related to definitions of risk and safety, standards, constraints and degrees of freedom in the work, data collections, reliability and validity of systems and the safety assessments, as well as communication between experts, and experts and non-experts. The results pointed to an increased amount of data and relevant factors considered in the analyses over time, changing the work content and process from one of risk analysis to a multifaceted teamwork towards the assessment of 'the safety case'. The multifaceted systems approach highlighted the increased importance of investigating assumptions underlying e.g. integration of diverse systems, and simplification procedures. It also highlighted the increased reliance on consensus building processes within the extended expert group, the importance of adequate communication abilities within the extended expert group, as well as the importance of transparency and communication relative the larger society. The results are discussed with reference to e.g. Janis 'groupthink' theory and Kuhns ideas of paradigmatic developments in science. It is concluded that it is well advised, in addition to the ordinary challenges of the work, to investigate also the implicit assumptions involved in the work processes to further enhance the understanding of safety assessments

  8. Developing a biomedical expert finding system using medical subject headings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Harpreet; Singh, Reema; Malhotra, Arjun; Kaur, Manjit

    2013-12-01

    Efficient identification of subject experts or expert communities is vital for the growth of any organization. Most of the available expert finding systems are based on self-nomination, which can be biased, and are unable to rank experts. Thus, the objective of this work was to develop a robust and unbiased expert finding system which can quantitatively measure expertise. Medical Subject Headings (MeSH) is a controlled vocabulary developed by the National Library of Medicine (NLM) for indexing research publications, articles and books. Using the MeSH terms associated with peer-reviewed articles published from India and indexed in PubMed, we developed a Web-based program which can be used to identify subject experts and subjects associated with an expert. We have extensively tested our system to identify experts from India in various subjects. The system provides a ranked list of experts where known experts rank at the top of the list. The system is general; since it uses information available with the PubMed, it can be implemented for any country. The expert finding system is able to successfully identify subject experts in India. Our system is unique because it allows the quantification of subject expertise, thus enabling the ranking of experts. Our system is based on peer-reviewed information. Use of MeSH terms as subjects has standardized the subject terminology. The system matches requirements of an ideal expert finding system.

  9. Expert - Non-expert differences in visual behaviour during alpine slalom skiing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Decroix, Marjolein; Wazir, Mohd Rozilee Wazir Norjali; Zeuwts, Linus; Deconinck, Frederik F J A; Lenoir, Matthieu; Vansteenkiste, Pieter

    2017-10-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate visual behaviour of expert and non-expert ski athletes during an alpine slalom. Fourteen non-experts and five expert slalom skiers completed an alpine slalom course in an indoor ski slope while wearing a head-mounted eye tracking device. Experts completed the slalom clearly faster than non-experts, but no significant difference was found in timing and position of the turn initiation. Although both groups already looked at future obstacles approximately 0,5s before passing the upcoming pole, the higher speed of experts implied that they shifted gaze spatially earlier in the bend than non-experts. Furthermore, experts focussed more on the second next pole while non-expert slalom skiers looked more to the snow surface immediately in front of their body. No difference was found in the fixation frequency, average fixation duration, and quiet eye duration between both groups. These results suggest that experts focus on the timing of their actions while non-experts still need to pay attention to the execution of these actions. These results also might suggest that ski trainers should instruct non-experts and experts to focus on the next pole and, shift their gaze to the second next pole shortly before reaching it. Based on the current study it seems unadvisable to instruct slalom skiers to look several poles ahead during the actual slalom. However, future research should test if these results still hold on a real outdoor slope, including multiple vertical gates. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. An empirical research on relationships between subjective judgement, technology acceptance tendency and knowledge transfer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Yu-Hsi; Tsai, Sang-Bing; Dai, Chien-Yun; Chen, Hsiao-Ming; Chen, Wan-Fei; Wu, Chia-Huei; Li, Guodong; Wang, Jiangtao

    2017-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to explore the relationships among employees' usage intention pertaining to mobile information devices, focusing on subjective judgement, technology acceptance tendency, information sharing behavior and information transfer. A research model was established to verify several hypotheses. The research model based on integrated concepts of knowledge management and technology acceptance modeling. Participants were employees of enterprises in Taiwan, selected by combining snowball and convenience sampling. Data obtained from 779 e-surveys. Multiple-regression analysis was employed for hypothesis verification. The results indicate that perceived ease-of-use of mobile devices was affected by computer self-efficacy and computer playfulness directly; meanwhile, perceived ease-of-use directly affects perceived usefulness. In addition, perceived ease-of-use and perceived usefulness can predict information-sharing behavior in a positive manner, and impact knowledge transfer as well. Based on the research findings, it suggested that enterprises should utilize mobile information devices to create more contact with customers and enrich their service network. In addition, it is recommended that managers use mobile devices to transmit key information to their staff and that they use these devices for problem-solving and decision-making. Further, the staff's skills pertaining to the operation of mobile information devices and to fully implement their features are reinforced in order to inspire the users' knowledge transfer. Enhancing the playfulness of the interface is also important. In general, it is useful to promote knowledge transfer behavior within an organization by motivating members to share information and ideas via mobile information devices. In addition, a well-designed interface can facilitate employees' use of these devices.

  11. An empirical research on relationships between subjective judgement, technology acceptance tendency and knowledge transfer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dai, Chien-Yun; Chen, Hsiao-Ming; Chen, Wan-Fei; Wu, Chia-Huei; Li, Guodong; Wang, Jiangtao

    2017-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to explore the relationships among employees' usage intention pertaining to mobile information devices, focusing on subjective judgement, technology acceptance tendency, information sharing behavior and information transfer. A research model was established to verify several hypotheses. The research model based on integrated concepts of knowledge management and technology acceptance modeling. Participants were employees of enterprises in Taiwan, selected by combining snowball and convenience sampling. Data obtained from 779 e-surveys. Multiple-regression analysis was employed for hypothesis verification. The results indicate that perceived ease-of-use of mobile devices was affected by computer self-efficacy and computer playfulness directly; meanwhile, perceived ease-of-use directly affects perceived usefulness. In addition, perceived ease-of-use and perceived usefulness can predict information-sharing behavior in a positive manner, and impact knowledge transfer as well. Based on the research findings, it suggested that enterprises should utilize mobile information devices to create more contact with customers and enrich their service network. In addition, it is recommended that managers use mobile devices to transmit key information to their staff and that they use these devices for problem-solving and decision-making. Further, the staff’s skills pertaining to the operation of mobile information devices and to fully implement their features are reinforced in order to inspire the users' knowledge transfer. Enhancing the playfulness of the interface is also important. In general, it is useful to promote knowledge transfer behavior within an organization by motivating members to share information and ideas via mobile information devices. In addition, a well-designed interface can facilitate employees' use of these devices. PMID:28886088

  12. Clinical judgement within the South African clinical nursing environment: A concept analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna C. van Graan

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Reform in the South African healthcare and educational system were characterized by the ideals that the country needs to produce independent, critical thinkers. Nurses need to cope with diversity in a more creative way, defining their role in a complex, uncertain, rapidly changing health care environment. Quality clinical judgement is therefore imperative as an identified characteristic of newly qualified professional nurses. The objective of this study was to explore and describe clinical judgement through various data sources and review of literature to clarify the meaning and promote a common understanding through formulating the characteristics and developing a connotative (theoretical definition of the concept. An explorative, descriptive qualitative design was used to discover the complexity and meaning of the phenomenon. Multiple data sources and search strategies were used, for the time frame 1982—2013. A concept analysis was used to arrive at a theoretical definition of the concept of ‘clinical judgement’ as a complex cognitive skill to evaluate patient needs, adaption of current treatment protocols as well as new treatment strategies, prevention of adverse side effects through being proactive rather than reactive within the clinical nursing environment. The findings emphasized clinical judgement as skill within the clinical nursing environment, thereby improving autonomous and accountable nursing care. These findings will assist nurse leaders and clinical nurse educators in developing a teaching-learning strategy to promote clinical judgement in undergraduate nursing students, thereby contributing to the quality of nursing care.

  13. Assessing Teachers' Judgements of Students' Academic Motivation and Emotions across Two Rating Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Mingjing; Urhahne, Detlef

    2014-01-01

    The present study examines the accuracy of teachers' judgements about students' motivation and emotions in English learning with two different rating methods. A sample of 480 sixth-grade Chinese students reported their academic self-concept, learning effort, enjoyment, and test anxiety via a questionnaire and were rated on these dimensions by…

  14. Beyond dual-process models: A categorisation of processes underlying intuitive judgement and decision making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Glöckner, A.; Witteman, C.L.M.

    2010-01-01

    Intuitive-automatic processes are crucial for making judgements and decisions. The fascinating complexity of these processes has attracted many decision researchers, prompting them to start investigating intuition empirically and to develop numerous models. Dual-process models assume a clear

  15. Personality Similarity between Teachers and Their Students Influences Teacher Judgement of Student Achievement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rausch, Tobias; Karing, Constance; Dörfler, Tobias; Artelt, Cordula

    2016-01-01

    This study examined personality similarity between teachers and their students and its impact on teacher judgement of student achievement in the domains of reading comprehension and mathematics. Personality similarity was quantified through intraclass correlations between personality characteristics of 409 dyads of German teachers and their…

  16. Moral Development in Business Education--Social Conditions Influencing Moral Judgement Competence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bienengräber, Thomas

    2014-01-01

    Workplace relations like any social relation first and foremost have a moral dimension. Thus, if vocational education sees one of its major goals in helping apprentices to deal with moral issues, one of the core objectives in vocational education is the support of the apprentice's development of moral judgement competence. Since Lawrence Kohlberg…

  17. Influences of appearance-behaviour congruity on memory and social judgements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cassidy, Brittany S; Gutchess, Angela H

    2015-01-01

    Prior work shows that appearance-behaviour congruity impacts memory and evaluations. Building upon prior work, we assessed influences of appearance-behaviour congruity on source memory and judgement strength to illustrate ways congruity effects permeate social cognition. We paired faces varying on trustworthiness with valenced behaviours to create congruent and incongruent face-behaviour pairs. Young and older adults remembered congruent pairs better than incongruent, but both were remembered better than pairs with faces rated average in appearance. This suggests that multiple, even conflicting, valenced cues improve memory over receiving fewer cues. Consistent with our manipulation of facial trustworthiness, congruity effects were present in the strength of trustworthiness-related but not dominance judgements. Subtle age differences emerged in congruity effects when learning about others, with older adults showing effects for approach judgements given both high and low arousal behaviours. Young adults had congruity effects for approach, prosociality and trustworthiness judgements, given high arousal behaviours only. These findings deepen our understanding of how appearance-behaviour congruity impacts memory for and evaluations of others.

  18. Impact of vocational interests, previous academic experience, gender and age on Situational Judgement Test performance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schripsema, Nienke R.; Trigt, van Anke M.; Borleffs, Jan C. C.; Cohen-Schotanus, Janke

    Situational Judgement Tests (SJTs) are increasingly implemented in medical school admissions. In this paper, we investigate the effects of vocational interests, previous academic experience, gender and age on SJT performance. The SJT was part of the selection process for the Bachelor's degree

  19. Impact of Vocational Interests, Previous Academic Experience, Gender and Age on Situational Judgement Test Performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schripsema, Nienke R.; van Trigt, Anke M.; Borleffs, Jan C. C.; Cohen-Schotanus, Janke

    2017-01-01

    Situational Judgement Tests (SJTs) are increasingly implemented in medical school admissions. In this paper, we investigate the effects of vocational interests, previous academic experience, gender and age on SJT performance. The SJT was part of the selection process for the Bachelor's degree programme in Medicine at University of Groningen, the…

  20. Treating an Established Episode of Delirium in Palliative Care: Expert Opinion and Review of the Current Evidence Base With Recommendations for Future Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pereira, José L.; Davis, Daniel H.J.; Currow, David C.; Meagher, David; Rabheru, Kiran; Wright, David; Bruera, Eduardo; Hartwick, Michael; Gagnon, Pierre R.; Gagnon, Bruno; Breitbart, William; Regnier, Laura; Lawlor, Peter G.

    2014-01-01

    Context Delirium is a highly prevalent complication in patients in palliative care settings, especially in the end-of-life context. Objectives To review the current evidence base for treating episodes of delirium in palliative care settings and propose a framework for future development. Methods We combined multidisciplinary input from delirium researchers and other purposely selected stakeholders at an international delirium study planning meeting. This was supplemented by a literature search of multiple databases and relevant reference lists to identify studies regarding therapeutic interventions for delirium. Results The context of delirium management in palliative care is highly variable. The standard management of a delirium episode includes the investigation of precipitating and aggravating factors followed by symptomatic treatment with drug therapy. However, the intensity of this management depends on illness trajectory and goals of care in addition to the local availability of both investigative modalities and therapeutic interventions. Pharmacologically, haloperidol remains the practice standard by consensus for symptomatic control. Dosing schedules are derived from expert opinion and various clinical practice guidelines as evidence-based data from palliative care settings are limited. The commonly used pharmacologic interventions for delirium in this population warrant evaluation in clinical trials to examine dosing and titration regimens, different routes of administration, and safety and efficacy compared with placebo. Conclusion Delirium treatment is multidimensional and includes the identification of precipitating and aggravating factors. For symptomatic management, haloperidol remains the practice standard. Further high-quality collaborative research investigating the appropriate treatment of this complex syndrome is needed. PMID:24480529