WorldWideScience

Sample records for based expert judgement

  1. Expert judgement in performance assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilmot, R.D.; Galson, D.A.

    2000-01-01

    This report is a pilot study that systematically describes the various types of expert judgement that are made throughout the development of a PA, and summarizes existing tools and practices for dealing with expert judgements. The report also includes recommendations for further work in the area of expert judgement. Expert judgements can be classified in a number of ways, including classification according to why the judgements are made and according to how the judgements are made. In terms of why judgements are made, there is a broad distinction between: Judgements concerning data that are made because alternatives are not feasible; and Judgements about the conduct of a PA that are made because there are no alternative approaches for making the decision. In the case of how judgements are made, the report distinguishes between non-elicited judgements made by individuals, non-elicited judgements made by groups, and elicited judgements made by individuals or groups. These types of judgement can generally be distinguished by the extent of the associated documentation, and hence their traceability. Tools for assessing judgements vary depending on the type of judgements being examined. Key tools are peer review, an appropriate QA regime, documentation, and elicitation. Dialogue with stake holders is also identified as important in establishing whether judgements are justified in the context in which they are used. The PA process comprises a number of stages, from establishing the assessment context, through site selection and repository design, to scenario and model development and parametrisation. The report discusses how judgements are used in each of these stages, and identifies which of the tools and procedures for assessing judgements are most appropriate at each stage. Recommendations for further work include the conduct of a trial expert elicitation to gain experience in the advantages and disadvantages of this technique, the development of guidance for peer

  2. Expert judgement in performance assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wilmot, R.D.; Galson, D.A. [Galson Sciences Ltd, Oakham (United Kingdom)

    2000-01-01

    This report is a pilot study that systematically describes the various types of expert judgement that are made throughout the development of a PA, and summarizes existing tools and practices for dealing with expert judgements. The report also includes recommendations for further work in the area of expert judgement. Expert judgements can be classified in a number of ways, including classification according to why the judgements are made and according to how the judgements are made. In terms of why judgements are made, there is a broad distinction between: Judgements concerning data that are made because alternatives are not feasible; and Judgements about the conduct of a PA that are made because there are no alternative approaches for making the decision. In the case of how judgements are made, the report distinguishes between non-elicited judgements made by individuals, non-elicited judgements made by groups, and elicited judgements made by individuals or groups. These types of judgement can generally be distinguished by the extent of the associated documentation, and hence their traceability. Tools for assessing judgements vary depending on the type of judgements being examined. Key tools are peer review, an appropriate QA regime, documentation, and elicitation. Dialogue with stake holders is also identified as important in establishing whether judgements are justified in the context in which they are used. The PA process comprises a number of stages, from establishing the assessment context, through site selection and repository design, to scenario and model development and parametrisation. The report discusses how judgements are used in each of these stages, and identifies which of the tools and procedures for assessing judgements are most appropriate at each stage. Recommendations for further work include the conduct of a trial expert elicitation to gain experience in the advantages and disadvantages of this technique, the development of guidance for peer

  3. Evaluation of a Delphi technique based expert judgement method for LCA valuation - DELPHI II

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hakala, S.; Wilson, B.

    1999-01-01

    Transparency and certainty are essential qualities for an acceptable and trusted valuation method. Based on the evaluation of the expert judgement method developed in the Delphi I study both of these criteria may be only partially accomplished by such a method. As for the technical procedure the method is well documented and transparency is good. Argumentation of the judgements, however, should be increased. The quality of the valuation indexes is explicitly available, but their certainty is very low for most interventions. The opinions of the experts differ much from each other. How much this depends on different values and how much on differences in knowledge etc. is impossible to assess. Also, how much the technique used and the statistical handling of the expert answers may have impacted the eventual scores of different interventions is difficult to assess. However, application of the expert judgement by means of the Delphi-technique to LCA valuation is a new idea, and, consequently, the method is still very much under development, far from maturity. This should be taken into account when considering the results out of the evaluation of the case study, which was the third of the kind in Europe

  4. Evaluation of a Delphi technique based expert judgement method for LCA valuation - DELPHI II

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Virtanen, Y.; Torkkeli, S. [VTT Chemical Technology, Espoo (Finland). Environmental Technology; Wilson, B. [Landbank Environmental Research and Consulting, London (United Kingdom)

    1999-07-01

    Because of the complexity and trade-offs between different points of the life cycles of the analysed systems, a method which measures the environmental damage caused by each intervention is needed in order to make a choice between the products. However, there is no commonly agreed methodology for this particular purpose. In most of the methods the valuation is implicitly or explicitly based on economic criteria. For various reasons, however, economically obtained criteria do not necessarily reflect ecological arguments correctly. Thus, there is a need for new, ecologically based valuation methods. One such approach is the expert judgement method, based on the Delphi technique, which rejects the economic basis in favour of the judgements of a group of environmental experts. However, it is not self evident that the expert judgement based environmental rating of interventions will be essentially more correct and certain than other methods. In this study the method was evaluated at different points of the procedure in order to obtain a picture of the quality of the indexes produced. The evaluation was based on an actual Delphi study made in 1995-1996 in Finland, Sweden and Norway. The main questions addressed were the significance of the results and the operational quality of the Delphi procedure. The results obtained by applying the expert method indexes were also compared with the results obtained with other valuation methods for the background life cycle inventory of the case study. Additional material included feedback data from panellists of the case study, collected with a questionnaire. The questionnaire data was analysed to identify major dimensions in the criteria for evaluating interventions and correlation of the final indexes of the Delphi I study with these dimensions. The rest of the questionnaire material was used to document panellists' opinions and experiences of the Delphi process, familiarity with the environmental impacts of various

  5. Evaluation of a Delphi technique based expert judgement method for LCA valuation - DELPHI II

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Virtanen, Y.; Torkkeli, S.

    1999-01-01

    Because of the complexity and trade-offs between different points of the life cycles of the analysed systems, a method which measures the environmental damage caused by each intervention is needed in order to make a choice between the products. However, there is no commonly agreed methodology for this particular purpose. In most of the methods the valuation is implicitly or explicitly based on economic criteria. For various reasons, however, economically obtained criteria do not necessarily reflect ecological arguments correctly. Thus, there is a need for new, ecologically based valuation methods. One such approach is the expert judgement method, based on the Delphi technique, which rejects the economic basis in favour of the judgements of a group of environmental experts. However, it is not self evident that the expert judgement based environmental rating of interventions will be essentially more correct and certain than other methods. In this study the method was evaluated at different points of the procedure in order to obtain a picture of the quality of the indexes produced. The evaluation was based on an actual Delphi study made in 1995-1996 in Finland, Sweden and Norway. The main questions addressed were the significance of the results and the operational quality of the Delphi procedure. The results obtained by applying the expert method indexes were also compared with the results obtained with other valuation methods for the background life cycle inventory of the case study. Additional material included feedback data from panellists of the case study, collected with a questionnaire. The questionnaire data was analysed to identify major dimensions in the criteria for evaluating interventions and correlation of the final indexes of the Delphi I study with these dimensions. The rest of the questionnaire material was used to document panellists' opinions and experiences of the Delphi process, familiarity with the environmental impacts of various interventions

  6. Expert judgement models in quantitative risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rosqvist, T. [VTT Automation, Helsinki (Finland); Tuominen, R. [VTT Automation, Tampere (Finland)

    1999-12-01

    Expert judgement is a valuable source of information in risk management. Especially, risk-based decision making relies significantly on quantitative risk assessment, which requires numerical data describing the initiator event frequencies and conditional probabilities in the risk model. This data is seldom found in databases and has to be elicited from qualified experts. In this report, we discuss some modelling approaches to expert judgement in risk modelling. A classical and a Bayesian expert model is presented and applied to real case expert judgement data. The cornerstone in the models is the log-normal distribution, which is argued to be a satisfactory choice for modelling degree-of-belief type probability distributions with respect to the unknown parameters in a risk model. Expert judgements are qualified according to bias, dispersion, and dependency, which are treated differently in the classical and Bayesian approaches. The differences are pointed out and related to the application task. Differences in the results obtained from the different approaches, as applied to real case expert judgement data, are discussed. Also, the role of a degree-of-belief type probability in risk decision making is discussed.

  7. Expert judgement models in quantitative risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rosqvist, T.; Tuominen, R.

    1999-01-01

    Expert judgement is a valuable source of information in risk management. Especially, risk-based decision making relies significantly on quantitative risk assessment, which requires numerical data describing the initiator event frequencies and conditional probabilities in the risk model. This data is seldom found in databases and has to be elicited from qualified experts. In this report, we discuss some modelling approaches to expert judgement in risk modelling. A classical and a Bayesian expert model is presented and applied to real case expert judgement data. The cornerstone in the models is the log-normal distribution, which is argued to be a satisfactory choice for modelling degree-of-belief type probability distributions with respect to the unknown parameters in a risk model. Expert judgements are qualified according to bias, dispersion, and dependency, which are treated differently in the classical and Bayesian approaches. The differences are pointed out and related to the application task. Differences in the results obtained from the different approaches, as applied to real case expert judgement data, are discussed. Also, the role of a degree-of-belief type probability in risk decision making is discussed

  8. Expert Judgement Assessment & SCENT Ontological Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    NICHERSU Iulian

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to provide insights in the starting point of the Horizon 2020 ECfunded project SCENT (Smart Toolbox for Εngaging Citizens into a People-Centric Observation Web Citizen Observatory (CO in terms of existing infrastructure, existing monitoring systems and some discussion on the existing legal and administrative framework that relate to flood monitoring and management in the area of Danube Delta. The methodology used in this approach is based on expert judgement and ontological analysis, using the information collected from the identified end-users of the SCENT toolbox. In this type of analysis the stages of flood monitoring and management that the experts are involved in are detailed. This is done through an Expert Judgement Assessment analysis. The latter is complemented by a set of Key Performance Indicators that the stakeholders have assessed and/or proposed for the evaluation of the SCENT demonstrations, for the impact of the project and finally for SCENT toolbox performance and usefulness. The second part of the study presents an analysis that attempts to map the interactions between different organizations and components of the existing monitoring systems in the Danube Delta case study. Expert Judgement (EJ allows to gain information from specialists in a specific field through a consultation process with one or more experts that have experience in similar and complementary topics. Expert judgment, expert estimates, or expert opinion are all terms that refer to the contents of the problem; estimates, outcomes, predictions, uncertainties, and their corresponding assumptions and conditions are all examples of expert judgment. Expert Judgement is affected by the process used to gather it. On the other hand, the ontological analysis comes to complete this study, by organizing and presenting the connections behind the flood management and land use systems in the three phases of the flood event.

  9. A method for using expert judgement in PSA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pulkkinen, U.; Holmberg, J.

    1997-03-01

    The report discusses an expert judgement methodology development for applications at all levels of probabilistic safety assessment (PSA). The main applications are expected to be at PSA-levels 1 and 2. The method consists of several phases, including the selection and training of the experts, elicitation of experts' judgements, probabilistic modeling and combination of experts' judgements and documentation of the judgement process. The expert training and elicitation process is rather similar to that applied in the NUREG-1150 study. The combination of experts judgements is based on a Bayesian framework utilizing hierarchic models. The posterior distributions of the variables under analysis can be interpreted as a Bayesian counterpart of the combined or aggregated (consensus) distributions, and they are determined by applying Markov chain Monte-Carlo methods. The properties of the method are illustrated by some simple examples. The method is tested in a case study belonging to the benchmark exercise on the use of expert judgement in level 2 PSA, organized as a concerted action of European Commission Fourth Framework Programme on Nuclear Fission Safety. (14 refs.)

  10. Expert judgement combination using moment methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wisse, Bram; Bedford, Tim; Quigley, John

    2008-01-01

    Moment methods have been employed in decision analysis, partly to avoid the computational burden that decision models involving continuous probability distributions can suffer from. In the Bayes linear (BL) methodology prior judgements about uncertain quantities are specified using expectation (rather than probability) as the fundamental notion. BL provides a strong foundation for moment methods, rooted in work of De Finetti and Goldstein. The main objective of this paper is to discuss in what way expert assessments of moments can be combined, in a non-Bayesian way, to construct a prior assessment. We show that the linear pool can be justified in an analogous but technically different way to linear pools for probability assessments, and that this linear pool has a very convenient property: a linear pool of experts' assessments of moments is coherent if each of the experts has given coherent assessments. To determine the weights of the linear pool we give a method of performance based weighting analogous to Cooke's classical model and explore its properties. Finally, we compare its performance with the classical model on data gathered in applications of the classical model

  11. Statistical models for expert judgement and wear prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pulkkinen, U.

    1994-01-01

    This thesis studies the statistical analysis of expert judgements and prediction of wear. The point of view adopted is the one of information theory and Bayesian statistics. A general Bayesian framework for analyzing both the expert judgements and wear prediction is presented. Information theoretic interpretations are given for some averaging techniques used in the determination of consensus distributions. Further, information theoretic models are compared with a Bayesian model. The general Bayesian framework is then applied in analyzing expert judgements based on ordinal comparisons. In this context, the value of information lost in the ordinal comparison process is analyzed by applying decision theoretic concepts. As a generalization of the Bayesian framework, stochastic filtering models for wear prediction are formulated. These models utilize the information from condition monitoring measurements in updating the residual life distribution of mechanical components. Finally, the application of stochastic control models in optimizing operational strategies for inspected components are studied. Monte-Carlo simulation methods, such as the Gibbs sampler and the stochastic quasi-gradient method, are applied in the determination of posterior distributions and in the solution of stochastic optimization problems. (orig.) (57 refs., 7 figs., 1 tab.)

  12. Processing Expert Judgements in Accident Consequence Modelling (invited paper)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kraan, B.C.P.; Cooke, R.M.

    2000-01-01

    In performing uncertainty analysis a distribution on the code input parameters is required. The construction of the distribution on the code input parameters for the joint CEC/USNRC Accident Consequence Code Uncertainty Analysis using Expert Judgement is discussed. An example from the food chain module is used to illustrate the construction. Different mathematical techniques have been developed to transform the expert judgements into the required format. Finally, the effect of taking account of correlations in performing uncertainty analysis is investigated. (author)

  13. Use of expert judgement in NUREG-1150

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ortiz, N.R.; Wheeler, T.A.; Breeding, R.J.; Hora, S.; Meyer, M.A.; Kenney, R.L.

    1991-01-01

    The explicit expert judgment process used in NUREG-1150, 'Severe Accident Risks: An Assessment for Five US Nuclear Plants', is discussed in this paper. The main steps of the process are described, including selection of issues and experts, elicitation training, presentation of issues to the experts, preparation of issue analyses by the experts, discussion of issue analyses and elicitation, and recomposition and aggregation of results. To demonstrate the application of the expert judgment process to NUREG-1150, two issues are summarized: one from the accident frequency analysis, and one from the accident progression analysis. Recommendations and insights are provided to improve the use of explicit expert judgment in complex technical issues. (orig.)

  14. Plant species as predictors of soil pH: Replacing expert judgement with measurements

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wamelink, G.W.W.; Goedhart, P.W.; Dobben, van H.F.; Berendse, F.

    2005-01-01

    Question: The use of expert-based indicator values to estimate abiotic conditions from vegetation is widespread. However, recent research has shown that expert judgement may contain considerable bias and thereby introduces a large amount of uncertainty. Could expert based indicator values be

  15. Risk and reliability analyses (LURI) and expert judgement techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pyy, P.; Pulkkinen, U.

    1998-01-01

    Probabilistic safety analysis (PSA) is currently used as a regulatory licensing tool in risk informed and plant performance based regulation. More often also utility safety improvements are based on PSA calculations as one criterion. PSA attempts to comprehensively identify all important risk contributors, compare them with each other, assess the safety level and suggest improvements based on its findings. The strength of PSA is that it is capable to provide decision makers with numerical estimates of risks. This makes decision making easier than the comparison of purely qualitative results. PSA is the only comprehensive tool that compactly attempts to include all the important risk contributors in its scope. Despite the demonstrated strengths of PSA, there are some features that have reduced its uses. For example, the PSA scope has been limited to the power operation and process internal events (transients and LOCAs). Only lately, areas such as shutdown, external events and severe accidents have been included in PSA models in many countries. Problems related to modelling are, e.g., that rather static fault and event tree models are commonly used in PSA to model dynamic event sequences. Even if a valid model may be generated, there may not be any other data sources to be used than expert judgement. Furthermore, there are a variety of different techniques for human reliability assessment (HRA) giving varying results. In the project Reliability and Risk Analyses (LURI) these limitations and shortcomings have been studied. In the decision making area, case studies on the application of decision analysis and a doctoral thesis have been published. Further, practical aid has been given to utilities and regulatory decision making. Model uncertainty effect on PSA results has been demonstrated by two case studies. Human reliability has been studied both in the integrated safety analysis study and in the study of maintenance originated NPP component faults based on the

  16. Estimating unknown parameters in haemophilia using expert judgement elicitation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, K; Lewandowski, D; Janssen, M P

    2013-09-01

    The increasing attention to healthcare costs and treatment efficiency has led to an increasing demand for quantitative data concerning patient and treatment characteristics in haemophilia. However, most of these data are difficult to obtain. The aim of this study was to use expert judgement elicitation (EJE) to estimate currently unavailable key parameters for treatment models in severe haemophilia A. Using a formal expert elicitation procedure, 19 international experts provided information on (i) natural bleeding frequency according to age and onset of bleeding, (ii) treatment of bleeds, (iii) time needed to control bleeding after starting secondary prophylaxis, (iv) dose requirements for secondary prophylaxis according to onset of bleeding, and (v) life-expectancy. For each parameter experts provided their quantitative estimates (median, P10, P90), which were combined using a graphical method. In addition, information was obtained concerning key decision parameters of haemophilia treatment. There was most agreement between experts regarding bleeding frequencies for patients treated on demand with an average onset of joint bleeding (1.7 years): median 12 joint bleeds per year (95% confidence interval 0.9-36) for patients ≤ 18, and 11 (0.8-61) for adult patients. Less agreement was observed concerning estimated effective dose for secondary prophylaxis in adults: median 2000 IU every other day The majority (63%) of experts expected that a single minor joint bleed could cause irreversible damage, and would accept up to three minor joint bleeds or one trauma related joint bleed annually on prophylaxis. Expert judgement elicitation allowed structured capturing of quantitative expert estimates. It generated novel data to be used in computer modelling, clinical care, and trial design. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  17. Expert judgements in performance assessments. Report of an SKI/SSI seminar

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilmot, R.D.; Galson, D.A.; Hora, S.C.

    2000-09-01

    Expert judgements are an important element of all performance assessments and are made when alternative approaches to decision-making are not available or are not feasible. Decisions regarding the scope of a particular assessment or the type of modelling approach adopted must be made through judgements because there are no observations that can be made. Similarly, any assumptions concerning human activities in the far future are essentially speculative and must be based on expert judgement. Observations of spatial heterogeneity within a disposal system may, on the other hand, be theoretically possible but not be feasible because of excessive cost or because they would adversely affect the system they were intended to characterise. Because there is a wide range of judgements made within a performance assessment, there are several ways of making the judgements and of assessing how they have been made. Judgements may, for example, be made by individuals or by groups, and they may be formally elicited or made without formal elicitation. Dialogue with stake holders can be an important means of assessing judgements, as can peer review. Documentation is a key element throughout the process of making and reviewing judgements, and appropriate quality assurance procedures can also build confidence in judgements. In order to develop an understanding of the processes of making and assessing judgements, the Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate (SKI) and the Swedish Radiation Protection Institute (SSI) jointly sponsored a seminar entitled 'The Use of Expert Judgements in Performance Assessments'. The seminar was held in Norrtaelje, Sweden, on 17-19 January 2000. The seminar was organised by Galson Sciences Ltd (GSL) on behalf of SKI, and conducted jointly by GSL and Professor Steve Hora of the University of Hawaii. Participants at the seminar included SKI and SSI staff and independent experts. A key element of the seminar was an illustrative expert elicitation session, designed to

  18. Expert judgements in performance assessments. Report of an SKI/SSI seminar

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wilmot, R.D.; Galson, D.A. [Galson Sciences Ltd, Oakham (United Kingdom); Hora, S.C. [Univ. of Hawaii, Hilo, HI (United States)

    2000-09-01

    Expert judgements are an important element of all performance assessments and are made when alternative approaches to decision-making are not available or are not feasible. Decisions regarding the scope of a particular assessment or the type of modelling approach adopted must be made through judgements because there are no observations that can be made. Similarly, any assumptions concerning human activities in the far future are essentially speculative and must be based on expert judgement. Observations of spatial heterogeneity within a disposal system may, on the other hand, be theoretically possible but not be feasible because of excessive cost or because they would adversely affect the system they were intended to characterise. Because there is a wide range of judgements made within a performance assessment, there are several ways of making the judgements and of assessing how they have been made. Judgements may, for example, be made by individuals or by groups, and they may be formally elicited or made without formal elicitation. Dialogue with stake holders can be an important means of assessing judgements, as can peer review. Documentation is a key element throughout the process of making and reviewing judgements, and appropriate quality assurance procedures can also build confidence in judgements. In order to develop an understanding of the processes of making and assessing judgements, the Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate (SKI) and the Swedish Radiation Protection Institute (SSI) jointly sponsored a seminar entitled 'The Use of Expert Judgements in Performance Assessments'. The seminar was held in Norrtaelje, Sweden, on 17-19 January 2000. The seminar was organised by Galson Sciences Ltd (GSL) on behalf of SKI, and conducted jointly by GSL and Professor Steve Hora of the University of Hawaii. Participants at the seminar included SKI and SSI staff and independent experts. A key element of the seminar was an illustrative expert elicitation session

  19. Comparison of Pattern Classification Methods in Crossarm Reuse Judgement System Based on Rust Images

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamana, Michiko; Murata, Hiroshi; Onoda, Takashi; Ohashi, Tohru; Kato, Seiji

    Japanese electric power companies currently utilize existing equipments completely and maintain facilities effectively. Human experts presently judge various hardwares whether they are be reusable or not to utilize equipments completely. Especially, this paper considers about crossarm reuse judgement. This judgement is based on rust, which attaches on crossarms, by human experts. However, this judgement depends on human expertise and it is difficult to keep constant judgement accuracy. Electric power companies want to take constant and good judgement accuracy. Therefore, we develop a crossarm reuse judgement system based on rust images using machine learning techniques. The system consists of commercial microscope and standard note PC to keep the cost. And we estimate the judgement accuracy of various pattern classification methods without the special image processing such as extracting features. The results show that support vector machine is the most suitable method for this judgement system.

  20. A review of expert judgement and treatment of probability in SR 97

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilmot, R.D.; Crawford, M.B.

    2000-01-01

    The Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) recently published its latest performance assessment for deep disposal of spent nuclear fuel, based on the KBS-3 concept. This assessment, SR 97, uses three hypothetical repository sites (known as Aberg, Beberg and Ceberg) to provide a range of geological settings and hydrogeological conditions for the assessment. The long-term performance of these sites is compared for several sets of assumptions relating to canister lifetimes, climate evolution, and patterns of human behaviour. This report is a review of SR 97 conducted by Galson Sciences Ltd on behalf of the Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate (SKI). The review focussed on the use of expert judgement in the assessment and on the treatment of uncertainty and the use of probability in assessment calculations. The review of SR 97 concluded that SKB had identified many of the judgements made in developing and implementing the assessment and modelling approaches, but that a more formal documentation of the assumptions involved would add to the clarity and transparency of the use of judgements. Similarly, explicit acknowledgement of the basis for making judgements about the treatment of FEPs would improve confidence in the assessment. There are a number of tools that can be useful in justifying the judgements made in an assessment. The review concluded that more use of dialogue with stake holders, peer review and expert elicitation could all be of value in SKB's assessment programme. Recently introduced regulations in Sweden have established an individual risk criterion for the long-term performance of repositories. SKB has previously identified 'pessimistic' and 'reasonable' values for a number of model parameters, and used these in a range of deterministic calculations to calculate dose and to illustrate system performance. To allow for the calculation of risk, SKB introduced probabilistic analyses into the SR 97 assessment by assigning probabilities of 10

  1. Evaluation of preconceptual plug designs using experts' judgement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sioshansi, F.P.; O'Rourke, J.E.

    1980-03-01

    A number of preconceptual plug designs for an underground nuclear waste repository were to be evaluated based on the available information on plug materials and placement techniques. Because of complex environment and loading conditions, long time frame under consideration, rigid performance characteristics and considerable uncertainties present in preconceptual design and material properties, a qualitative and judgmental evaluation procedure was needed to supplement technical studies. A structured procedure was developed to qualitatively capture evaluator's views and reservations on the proposed preconceptual schemes. Since a thorough evaluation of each proposed plug scheme required in-depth experience and familiarity with many components of the plug, three knowledgeable experts with specialties in the most relevant aspects of the problem were independently interviewed. Each plug scheme was broken down into three subcomponents and each subcomponent was evaluated separately. The proposed schemes were then rated taking their subcomponents into consideration. Because the experts had different specialties, their subcomponent and overall ratings were not in full agreement. Each plug scheme's lowest overall rating was used as the most significant determinant of the judgmental preference categories reported in this study. The approach used discriminated between the proposed schemes for those with highest probability of being successful. The most preferred schemes were then reviewed with respect to the data produced in the technical analysis performed during the project. The results of the judgmental analysis were then synthesized and modified with results of the technical analysis to produce the preconceptual plug designs

  2. A risk-informed approach of quantification of epistemic uncertainty for the long-term radioactive waste disposal. Improving reliability of expert judgements with an advanced elicitation procedure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sugiyama, Daisuke; Chida, Taiji; Fujita, Tomonari; Tsukamoto, Masaki

    2011-01-01

    A quantification methodology of epistemic uncertainty by expert judgement based on the risk-informed approach is developed to assess inevitable uncertainty for the long-term safety assessment of radioactive waste disposal. The proposed method in this study employs techniques of logic tree, by which options of models and/or scenarios are identified, and Evidential Support Logic (ESL), by which possibility of each option is quantified. In this report, the effect of a feedback process of discussion between experts and input of state-of-the-art knowledge in the proposed method is discussed to estimate alteration of the distribution of expert judgements which is one of the factors causing uncertainty. In a preliminary quantification experiment of uncertainty of degradation of the engineering barrier materials in a tentative sub-surface disposal using the proposed methodology, experts themselves modified questions appropriately to facilitate sound judgements and to correlate those with scientific evidences clearly. The result suggests that the method effectively improves confidence of expert judgement. Also, the degree of consensus of expert judgement was sort of improved in some cases, since scientific knowledge and information of expert judgement in other fields became common understanding. It is suggested that the proposed method could facilitate consensus on uncertainty between interested persons. (author)

  3. The use of expert judgement in decision making

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2005-07-01

    Expert judgment (EJ) techniques and protocols have been used in different areas for more than half a century. the Nuclear Energy Division of the Commissariat a l'Energie Atomique (CEA), via the Risk Control Domain of the Nuclear Development and Innovation Division and the Innovative Systems Studies Service, and the Institute for Energy of JRC (Petten), via the Nuclear Safety Unit, organized a 'workshop on the use of expert judgment in decision making'. The objectives of this workshop were to create an exchange forum about this topic and to gather a first state of the art, in order to identify the needs for R and D. This workshop brought together approximately 55 participants, from different industry sectors (energy, both nuclear and non-nuclear, food and communication among others) and from universities, research organizations and technical support organizations. The workshop was divided in one opening session, four thematic sessions plus a round table and a final general discussion session. The first session was dedicated to the elicitation of expertise and the combination of opinions given by different experts. The papers in this session had more theoretical contents than most of the papers in other session. The second session was dedicated to expert knowledge management. It consisted of four papers, two of them in the area of the food industry, one of them in the area of e-business and the last one in the area of human reliability assessment (HRA) and its impact on Probabilistic Safety Analysis (PSA) calculations. The third session was dedicated to industrial applications and consisted of four papers, all of them in the area of energy production. The last session was about the use of EJ in risk analysis and decision making processes. Four papers were included in this session, EJ has been applied for a very long time in very different fields, which has brought as a consequence a broad diversity of methodologies The workshop did also show the

  4. The use of expert judgement in decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2005-01-01

    Expert judgment (EJ) techniques and protocols have been used in different areas for more than half a century. the Nuclear Energy Division of the Commissariat a l'Energie Atomique (CEA), via the Risk Control Domain of the Nuclear Development and Innovation Division and the Innovative Systems Studies Service, and the Institute for Energy of JRC (Petten), via the Nuclear Safety Unit, organized a 'workshop on the use of expert judgment in decision making'. The objectives of this workshop were to create an exchange forum about this topic and to gather a first state of the art, in order to identify the needs for R and D. This workshop brought together approximately 55 participants, from different industry sectors (energy, both nuclear and non-nuclear, food and communication among others) and from universities, research organizations and technical support organizations. The workshop was divided in one opening session, four thematic sessions plus a round table and a final general discussion session. The first session was dedicated to the elicitation of expertise and the combination of opinions given by different experts. The papers in this session had more theoretical contents than most of the papers in other session. The second session was dedicated to expert knowledge management. It consisted of four papers, two of them in the area of the food industry, one of them in the area of e-business and the last one in the area of human reliability assessment (HRA) and its impact on Probabilistic Safety Analysis (PSA) calculations. The third session was dedicated to industrial applications and consisted of four papers, all of them in the area of energy production. The last session was about the use of EJ in risk analysis and decision making processes. Four papers were included in this session, EJ has been applied for a very long time in very different fields, which has brought as a consequence a broad diversity of methodologies The workshop did also show the variety of techniques

  5. The use of expert judgement in decision making

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2005-07-01

    Expert judgment (EJ) techniques and protocols have been used in different areas for more than half a century. the Nuclear Energy Division of the Commissariat a l'Energie Atomique (CEA), via the Risk Control Domain of the Nuclear Development and Innovation Division and the Innovative Systems Studies Service, and the Institute for Energy of JRC (Petten), via the Nuclear Safety Unit, organized a 'workshop on the use of expert judgment in decision making'. The objectives of this workshop were to create an exchange forum about this topic and to gather a first state of the art, in order to identify the needs for R and D. This workshop brought together approximately 55 participants, from different industry sectors (energy, both nuclear and non-nuclear, food and communication among others) and from universities, research organizations and technical support organizations. The workshop was divided in one opening session, four thematic sessions plus a round table and a final general discussion session. The first session was dedicated to the elicitation of expertise and the combination of opinions given by different experts. The papers in this session had more theoretical contents than most of the papers in other session. The second session was dedicated to expert knowledge management. It consisted of four papers, two of them in the area of the food industry, one of them in the area of e-business and the last one in the area of human reliability assessment (HRA) and its impact on Probabilistic Safety Analysis (PSA) calculations. The third session was dedicated to industrial applications and consisted of four papers, all of them in the area of energy production. The last session was about the use of EJ in risk analysis and decision making processes. Four papers were included in this session, EJ has been applied for a very long time in very different fields, which has brought as a consequence a broad diversity of methodologies The workshop did also show the variety of techniques

  6. Construction of a case for expert judgement of uncertainty in early health effects models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grupa, J.

    1997-11-01

    The contribution of ECN to a joint study of the European Commission (EC) and the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), in which the uncertainty in risks and consequences of severe accidents at nuclear power plants are evaluated, is described. The procedure used to obtain these uncertainties is called expert judgement. In a formal expert judgement procedure a panel of experts has provided quantitative information about the uncertainty in given observables: a quantity that describes an observation concerning the phenomenon of interest, in this paper the relation between dose and health effects, without information or assumptions about any model describing this phenomenon. The observables are defined in a case structure, a questionnaire provided to all experts. ECN has contributed to the selection of the experts for the early health effects panel, and provided assistance for drafting the case structure for this panel. This paper describes the radiological information provided by ECN and the analyses necessary for constructing the case structure. The deliverables of the expert elicitation are uncertainty distributions of the observables requested in the case structure. The results are intended to be unbiased, i.e. it should be applicable to any model describing the relation between dose and health effects. They will be published by the project team in a joint publication of the NRC and the EC. In this way the resulting uncertainty distributions are available for further work in the joint project and available to a more general public. 2 figs., 4 refs

  7. AVISE, ageing anticipation methodology using expert judgement and stimulation. Application to a nuclear power plant component: the pressurizer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bouzaiene-Marle, L.

    2005-04-01

    This thesis deals with components ageing anticipation in the context of life cycle management. The proposed approach, called AVISE, allows the identification of potentials problems related to ageing, to measure the risks in terms of degradation probability and degradation consequences and gives the adequate solutions to stop or to postpone ageing. This research was undertaken in a particular industrial context, the nuclear industry. Equipments used in this context are specific and particularly reliable. These characteristics result in limited feedback (low number of failures). To compensate for this limited information, two solutions are proposed in this approach. The first solution that we can consider as a classical one consists in using expert judgement. The second one, more original, consists in using the operation feedback of 'similar' components. In order to apply these solutions and to obtain the anticipation results, a set of methodological tools was developed and tested in a real industrial application on a nuclear power plant component: the pressurizer. The first tool is a generic process for expert judgement, identified thanks to a comparison between eleven existing methods using expert judgement. Two methods based on expert stimulation and called STIMEX-IMDP and STIMEX-IPP were elaborated. A reference list of degradation mechanisms and a reference list of ageing effects were constructed and used in the method STIMEX-IMDP in order to help expert stimulation. Then, the developed approach proposes the use of belief networks to model and quantify the risks related to the potential degradations. Finally, the construction of a conceptual data model and specifications are given for the creation of an ageing database. The data to capitalize was identified on the basis of the research undertaken in this thesis. (author)

  8. An Exploration of the Examination Script Features that Most Influence Expert Judgements in Three Methods of Evaluating Script Quality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suto, Irenka; Novakovic, Nadezda

    2012-01-01

    Some methods of determining grade boundaries within examinations, such as awarding, paired comparisons, and rank ordering, entail expert judgements of script quality. We aimed to identify the features of examinees' scripts that most influence judgements in the three methods. For contrasting examinations in biology and English, a Latin square…

  9. A Judgement-Based Model of Workplace Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Athanasou, James A.

    2004-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to outline a judgement-based model of adult learning. This approach is set out as a Perceptual-Judgemental-Reinforcement approach to social learning under conditions of complexity and where there is no single, clearly identified correct response. The model builds upon the Hager-Halliday thesis of workplace learning and…

  10. Children's judgements and emotions about social exclusion based on weight.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, Christine; Malti, Tina

    2014-09-01

    This study examined children's judgements and emotions associated with weight-based social exclusion using an ethnically diverse sample of one hundred and seventeen 9- and 13-year-old children. Children were interviewed about three scenarios depicting weight-based exclusion in athletic, academic, and social contexts. Children's judgements of exclusion, emotions attributed to the excluder and excluded targets, and justifications for judgements and emotions were examined. Overall, children judged weight-based exclusion to be wrong for moral reasons. However, they viewed weight-based exclusion in athletic contexts as less wrong compared with academic contexts, and they used more social-conventional reasoning to justify judgements and emotions attributed to excluders in athletic contexts compared with academic and social contexts. Children also expected excluded targets to feel negative emotions, whereas a range of positive and negative emotions was attributed to excluders. In addition, older children were more accepting of weight-based exclusion in athletic contexts than in academic and social contexts. We discuss the results in relation to the development of children's understanding of, and emotions associated with, exclusion based on weight. © 2014 The British Psychological Society.

  11. Procedures for the elicitation of expert judgements in the probabilistic risk analysis of radioactive waste repositories: an overview

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Watson, S.R.

    1992-01-01

    In modelling the consequences of a radioactive waste repository using Probabilistic Risk Analysis, it is necessary to use the judgement of experts both in assessing probabilities subjectively, and in choosing suitable analytic frameworks. This report presents the literature on these topics, first discussing the meaning of probability in PRA, and then giving an extensive review of what is known about how to elicit probabilities from experts. The report then provides an overview of the less well developed field of how best to use expertise in the construction of models for PRA. (author)

  12. Computer Based Expert Systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parry, James D.; Ferrara, Joseph M.

    1985-01-01

    Claims knowledge-based expert computer systems can meet needs of rural schools for affordable expert advice and support and will play an important role in the future of rural education. Describes potential applications in prediction, interpretation, diagnosis, remediation, planning, monitoring, and instruction. (NEC)

  13. Procedures for the elicitation of expert judgements in the probabilistic risk analysis of the long-term effects of radioactive waste repositories: an annotated bibliography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Watson, S.R.

    1993-01-01

    This annotated bibliography describes the key literature relevant to the elicitation of expert judgements in radioactive waste management. The bibliography is divided into seven sections; section 2 lists the literature exploring the proper interpretation of probabilities used in Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA). Section 3 lists literature describing other calculi for handling uncertainty in a numerical fashion. In section 4 comments are given on how to elicit probabilities from individuals as a measure of subjective degrees of belief and section 5 lists the literature concerning how expert judgements can be combined. Sections 6 and 7 list literature giving an overview of the issues involved in PRA for radioactive waste repositories. (author)

  14. NATO Guide for Judgement-Based Operational Analysis in Defence Decision Making : Client-Oriented Volume

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wijnmalen, D.J.D.; et al

    2012-01-01

    Judgment plays an important role in all Operational Analysis (OA). NATO practitioners have determined that approaches in OA that are based on human judgement are increasingly critical to defence decision making. The purpose of the NATO Guide for Judgement-Based OA in Defence Decision Making is to

  15. NATO Guide for Judgement-Based Operational Analysis in Defence Decision Making : Executive Leaflet

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wijnmalen, D.J.D.; et al

    2012-01-01

    Judgment plays an important role in all Operational Analysis (OA). NATO practitioners have determined that approaches in OA that are based on human judgement are increasingly critical to defence decision making. The purpose of the NATO Guide for Judgement-Based OA in Defence Decision Making is to

  16. Expert judgements on the response of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation to climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zickfeld, K.; Levermann, A.; Kuhlbrodt, T.; Rahmstorf, S.; Morgan, M.G.; Keith, D.W.

    2007-01-01

    We present results from detailed interviews with 12 leading climate scientists about the possible effects of global climate change on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). The elicitation sought to examine the range of opinions within the climatic research community about the physical processes that determine the current strength of the AMOC, its future evolution in a changing climate and the consequences of potential AMOC changes. Experts assign different relative importance to physical processes which determine the present-day strength of the AMOC as well as to forcing factors which determine its future evolution under climate change. Many processes and factors deemed important are assessed as poorly known and insufficiently represented in state-of-the-art climate models. All experts anticipate a weakening of the AMOC under scenarios of increase of greenhouse gas concentrations. Two experts expect a permanent collapse of the AMOC as the most likely response under a 4xCO2 scenario. Assuming a global mean temperature increase in the year 2100 of 4 K, eight experts assess the probability of triggering an AMOC collapse as significantly different from zero, three of them as larger than 40%. Elicited consequences of AMOC reduction include strong changes in temperature, precipitation distribution and sea level in the North Atlantic area. It is expected that an appropriately designed research program, with emphasis on long-term observations and coupled climate modeling, would contribute to substantially reduce uncertainty about the future evolution of the AMOC

  17. Expert judgement on inadvertent human intrusion into the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hora, S.C.; von Winterfeldt, D.; Trauth, K.M.

    1991-12-01

    Four expert-judgment teams have developed analyses delineating possible future societies in the next 10,000 years in the vicinity of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). Expert-judgment analysis was used to address the question of future societies because neither experimentation, observation, nor modeling can resolve such uncertainties. Each of the four, four-member teams, comprised of individuals with expertise in the physical, social, or political sciences, developed detailed qualitative assessments of possible future societies. These assessments include detailed discussions of the underlying physical and societal factors that would influence society and the likely modes of human-intrusion at the WIPP, as well as the probabilities of intrusion. Technological development, population growth, economic development, conservation of information, persistence of government control, and mitigation of danger from nuclear waste were the factors the teams believed to be most important. Likely modes of human-intrusion were categorized as excavation, disposal/storage, tunneling, drilling, and offsite activities. Each team also developed quantitative assessments by providing probabilities of various alternative futures, of inadvertent human intrusion, and in some cases, of particular modes of intrusion. The information created throughout this study will be used in conjunction with other types of information, including experimental data, calculations from physical principles and computer models, and perhaps other judgments, as input to ''performance assessment.'' The more qualitative results of this study will be used as input to another expert panel considering markers to deter inadvertent human intrusion at the WIPP

  18. AVISE, ageing anticipation methodology using expert judgement and stimulation. Application to a nuclear power plant component: the pressurizer; AVISE, Anticipation du Vieillissement par Interrogation et Stimulation d'Experts. Application a un materiel passif d'une centrale nucleaire: le pressuriseur

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bouzaiene-Marle, L

    2005-04-15

    This thesis deals with components ageing anticipation in the context of life cycle management. The proposed approach, called AVISE, allows the identification of potentials problems related to ageing, to measure the risks in terms of degradation probability and degradation consequences and gives the adequate solutions to stop or to postpone ageing. This research was undertaken in a particular industrial context, the nuclear industry. Equipments used in this context are specific and particularly reliable. These characteristics result in limited feedback (low number of failures). To compensate for this limited information, two solutions are proposed in this approach. The first solution that we can consider as a classical one consists in using expert judgement. The second one, more original, consists in using the operation feedback of 'similar' components. In order to apply these solutions and to obtain the anticipation results, a set of methodological tools was developed and tested in a real industrial application on a nuclear power plant component: the pressurizer. The first tool is a generic process for expert judgement, identified thanks to a comparison between eleven existing methods using expert judgement. Two methods based on expert stimulation and called STIMEX-IMDP and STIMEX-IPP were elaborated. A reference list of degradation mechanisms and a reference list of ageing effects were constructed and used in the method STIMEX-IMDP in order to help expert stimulation. Then, the developed approach proposes the use of belief networks to model and quantify the risks related to the potential degradations. Finally, the construction of a conceptual data model and specifications are given for the creation of an ageing database. The data to capitalize was identified on the basis of the research undertaken in this thesis. (author)

  19. AVISE, ageing anticipation methodology using expert judgement and stimulation. Application to a nuclear power plant component: the pressurizer; AVISE, Anticipation du Vieillissement par Interrogation et Stimulation d'Experts. Application a un materiel passif d'une centrale nucleaire: le pressuriseur

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bouzaiene-Marle, L

    2005-04-15

    This thesis deals with components ageing anticipation in the context of life cycle management. The proposed approach, called AVISE, allows the identification of potentials problems related to ageing, to measure the risks in terms of degradation probability and degradation consequences and gives the adequate solutions to stop or to postpone ageing. This research was undertaken in a particular industrial context, the nuclear industry. Equipments used in this context are specific and particularly reliable. These characteristics result in limited feedback (low number of failures). To compensate for this limited information, two solutions are proposed in this approach. The first solution that we can consider as a classical one consists in using expert judgement. The second one, more original, consists in using the operation feedback of 'similar' components. In order to apply these solutions and to obtain the anticipation results, a set of methodological tools was developed and tested in a real industrial application on a nuclear power plant component: the pressurizer. The first tool is a generic process for expert judgement, identified thanks to a comparison between eleven existing methods using expert judgement. Two methods based on expert stimulation and called STIMEX-IMDP and STIMEX-IPP were elaborated. A reference list of degradation mechanisms and a reference list of ageing effects were constructed and used in the method STIMEX-IMDP in order to help expert stimulation. Then, the developed approach proposes the use of belief networks to model and quantify the risks related to the potential degradations. Finally, the construction of a conceptual data model and specifications are given for the creation of an ageing database. The data to capitalize was identified on the basis of the research undertaken in this thesis. (author)

  20. Expert system based radionuclide identification

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aarnio, P.A.; Ala-Heikkil, J.J.; Hakulinen, T.T.; Nikkinen, M.T.

    1998-01-01

    An expert system coupled with the gamma spectrum analysis system SAMPO has been developed for automating the qualitative identification of radionuclides as well as for determining the quantitative parameters of the spectrum components. The program is written in C-language and runs in various environments ranging from PCs to UNIX workstations. The expert system utilizes a complete gamma library with over 2600 nuclides and 80,000 lines, and a rule base of about fifty criteria including energies, relative peak intensities, genesis modes, half lives, parent-daughter relationships, etc. The rule base is furthermore extensible by the user. This is not an original contribution but a somewhat updated version of papers and reports previously published elsewhere. (author)

  1. Judgement of Design Scheme Based on Flexible Constraint in ICAD

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2000-01-01

    The conception of flexible constraint is proposed in the paper. The solution of flexible constraint is in special range, and maybe different in different instances of same design scheme. The paper emphasis on how to evaluate and optimize a design scheme with flexible constraints based on the satisfaction degree function defined on flexible constraints. The conception of flexible constraint is used to solve constraint conflict and design optimization in complicated constraint-based assembly design by the PFM parametrization assembly design system. An instance of gear-box design is used for verifying optimization method.

  2. The judgement process in evidence-based medicine and health technology assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Kelly, Michael P; Moore, Tessa A

    2011-01-01

    This article describes the judgements used to interpret evidence in evidence-based medicine (EBM) and health technology assessment (HTA). It outlines the methods and processes of EBM and HTA. Respectively, EBM and HTA are approaches to medical clinical decision making and efficient allocation of scarce health resources. At the heart of both is a concern to review and synthesise evidence, especially evidence derived from randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of clinical effectiveness. The driver...

  3. Tacit knowledge as the unifying factor in evidence based medicine and clinical judgement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thornton, Tim

    2006-03-17

    The paper outlines the role that tacit knowledge plays in what might seem to be an area of knowledge that can be made fully explicit or codified and which forms a central element of Evidence Based Medicine. Appeal to the role the role of tacit knowledge in science provides a way to unify the tripartite definition of Evidence Based Medicine given by Sackett et al: the integration of best research evidence with clinical expertise and patient values. Each of these three elements, crucially including research evidence, rests on an ineliminable and irreducible notion of uncodified good judgement. The paper focuses on research evidence, drawing first on the work of Kuhn to suggest that tacit knowledge contributes, as a matter of fact, to puzzle solving within what he calls normal science. A stronger argument that it must play a role in research is first motivated by looking to Collins' first hand account of replication in applied physics and then broader considerations of replication in justifying knowledge claims in scientific research. Finally, consideration of an argument from Wittgenstein shows that whatever explicit guidelines can be drawn up to guide judgement the specification of what counts as correctly following them has to remain implicit.Overall, the paper sets out arguments for the claim that even though explicit guidelines and codifications can play a practical role in informing clinical practice, they rest on a body of tacit or implicit skill that is in principle ineliminable. It forms the bedrock of good judgement and unites the integration of research, expertise and values.

  4. The judgement process in evidence-based medicine and health technology assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelly, Michael P; Moore, Tessa A

    2012-02-01

    This article describes the judgements used to interpret evidence in evidence-based medicine (EBM) and health technology assessment (HTA). It outlines the methods and processes of EBM and HTA. Respectively, EBM and HTA are approaches to medical clinical decision making and efficient allocation of scarce health resources. At the heart of both is a concern to review and synthesise evidence, especially evidence derived from randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of clinical effectiveness. The driver of the approach of both is a desire to eliminate, or at least reduce, bias. The hierarchy of evidence, which is used as an indicator of the likelihood of bias, features heavily in the process and methods of EBM and HTA. The epistemological underpinnings of EBM and HTA are explored with particular reference to the distinction between rationalism and empiricism, developed by the philosopher David Hume and elaborated by Immanuel Kant in the Critique of Pure Reason. The importance of Humian and Kantian principles for understanding the projects of EBM and HTA is considered and the ways in which decisions are made in both, within a judgemental framework originally outlined by Kant, are explored.

  5. The judgement process in evidence-based medicine and health technology assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelly, Michael P; Moore, Tessa A

    2012-01-01

    This article describes the judgements used to interpret evidence in evidence-based medicine (EBM) and health technology assessment (HTA). It outlines the methods and processes of EBM and HTA. Respectively, EBM and HTA are approaches to medical clinical decision making and efficient allocation of scarce health resources. At the heart of both is a concern to review and synthesise evidence, especially evidence derived from randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of clinical effectiveness. The driver of the approach of both is a desire to eliminate, or at least reduce, bias. The hierarchy of evidence, which is used as an indicator of the likelihood of bias, features heavily in the process and methods of EBM and HTA. The epistemological underpinnings of EBM and HTA are explored with particular reference to the distinction between rationalism and empiricism, developed by the philosopher David Hume and elaborated by Immanuel Kant in the Critique of Pure Reason. The importance of Humian and Kantian principles for understanding the projects of EBM and HTA is considered and the ways in which decisions are made in both, within a judgemental framework originally outlined by Kant, are explored. PMID:23226973

  6. TU Delft expert judgment data base

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cooke, Roger M.; Goossens, Louis L.H.J.

    2008-01-01

    We review the applications of structured expert judgment uncertainty quantification using the 'classical model' developed at the Delft University of Technology over the last 17 years [Cooke RM. Experts in uncertainty. Oxford: Oxford University Press; 1991; Expert judgment study on atmospheric dispersion and deposition. Report Faculty of Technical Mathematics and Informatics No.01-81, Delft University of Technology; 1991]. These involve 45 expert panels, performed under contract with problem owners who reviewed and approved the results. With a few exceptions, all these applications involved the use of seed variables; that is, variables from the experts' area of expertise for which the true values are available post hoc. Seed variables are used to (1) measure expert performance, (2) enable performance-based weighted combination of experts' distributions, and (3) evaluate and hopefully validate the resulting combination or 'decision maker'. This article reviews the classical model for structured expert judgment and the performance measures, reviews applications, comparing performance-based decision makers with 'equal weight' decision makers, and collects some lessons learned

  7. NATO Guide for Judgement-Based Operational Analysis in Defence Decision Making : Analyst-Oriented Volume - Code of Best Practice for Soft Operational Analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wijnmalen, D.J.D.; et al

    2012-01-01

    Judgment plays an important role in all Operational Analysis (OA). NATO practitioners have determined that approaches in OA that are based on human judgement are increasingly critical to defence decision making. The purpose of the NATO Guide for Judgement-Based OA in Defence Decision Making is to

  8. Expert system for web based collaborative CAE

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hou, Liang; Lin, Zusheng

    2006-11-01

    An expert system for web based collaborative CAE was developed based on knowledge engineering, relational database and commercial FEA (Finite element analysis) software. The architecture of the system was illustrated. In this system, the experts' experiences, theories and typical examples and other related knowledge, which will be used in the stage of pre-process in FEA, were categorized into analysis process and object knowledge. Then, the integrated knowledge model based on object-oriented method and rule based method was described. The integrated reasoning process based on CBR (case based reasoning) and rule based reasoning was presented. Finally, the analysis process of this expert system in web based CAE application was illustrated, and an analysis example of a machine tool's column was illustrated to prove the validity of the system.

  9. Evaluating the validity of an integrity-based situational judgement test for medical school admissions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Husbands, Adrian; Rodgerson, Mark J; Dowell, Jon; Patterson, Fiona

    2015-09-02

    While the construct of integrity has emerged as a front-runner amongst the desirable attributes to select for in medical school admissions, it is less clear how best to assess this characteristic. A potential solution lies in the use of Situational Judgement Tests (SJTs) which have gained popularity due to robust psychometric evidence and potential for large-scale administration. This study aims to explore the psychometric properties of an SJT designed to measure the construct of integrity. Ten SJT scenarios, each with five response stems were developed from critical incident interviews with academic and clinical staff. 200 of 520 (38.5 %) Multiple Mini Interview candidates at Dundee Medical School participated in the study during the 2012-2013 admissions cycle. Participants were asked to rate the appropriateness of each SJT response on a 4-point likert scale as well as complete the HEXACO personality inventory and a face validity questionnaire. Pearson's correlations and descriptive statistics were used to examine the associations between SJT score, HEXACO personality traits, pre-admissions measures namely academic and United Kingdom Clinical Aptitude Test (UKCAT) scores, as well as acceptability. Cronbach's alpha reliability for the SJT was .64. Statistically significant correlations ranging from .16 to .36 (.22 to .53 disattenuated) were observed between SJT score and the honesty-humility (integrity), conscientiousness, extraversion and agreeableness dimensions of the HEXACO inventory. A significant correlation of .32 (.47 disattenuated) was observed between SJT and MMI scores and no significant relationship with the UKCAT. Participant reactions to the SJTs were generally positive. Initial findings are encouraging regarding the psychometric robustness of an integrity-based SJT for medical student selection, with significant associations found between the SJTs, integrity, other desirable personality traits and the MMI. The SJTs showed little or no redundancy with

  10. Confidence and clinical judgement in community nurses managing venous leg ulceration - A judgement analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adderley, Una J; Thompson, Carl

    2017-11-01

    The variation in the management of venous leg ulceration in the UK is partly attributable to an uncertain clinical environment but the quality of judgements is influenced by the how well nurses' confidence and accuracy are aligned. To assess UK community nurses' confidence in the accuracy of their diagnostic judgements and treatment choices when managing venous leg ulceration. Judgement Analysis. UK community and primary care nursing services. 18 community non-specialist nurses working in district (home) nursing teams and general practitioner services and 18 community tissue viability specialist nurses. Using judgement analysis methods, 18 community non-specialist nurses and 18 community tissue viability specialist nurses made diagnoses and treatment judgements about compression therapy for 110 clinical scenarios and indicated their confidence for each judgement. An expert panel made consensus judgements for the same scenarios and these judgements were used as a standard against which to compare the participants. Confidence analysis was used to assess the nurses' confidence about their diagnostic judgements and treatment choices. Despite being very experienced, both non-specialist nurses' and specialist tissue viability nurses' levels of confidence were not well calibrated with their levels of accuracy. The results of this study are important as errors resulting from both over and under-confidence at the diagnostic phase of management may influence treatment choices, and thus increase the chances of treatment error. Copyright © 2017 Tissue Viability Society. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Higher motivation - greater control? The effect of arousal on judgement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riemer, Hila; Viswanathan, Madhu

    2013-01-01

    This research examines control over the effect of arousal, a dimension of affect, on judgement. Past research shows that high processing motivation enhances control over the effects of affect on judgement. Isolating and studying arousal as opposed to valence, the other dimension of affect, and its effect on judgement, we identify boundary conditions for past findings. Drawing from the literature on processes by which arousal influences judgement, we demonstrate that the role of motivation is contingent upon the type of judgement task (i.e., memory- versus stimulus-based judgement). In stimulus-based judgement, individuals exert greater control over the effect of arousal on judgement under low compared to high motivation. In contrast, in memory-based judgement individuals exert greater control over the effect of arousal under high compared to low motivation. Theoretical implications and avenues for future research are discussed.

  12. Scientific evidence and the toxic tort. A socio-legal study of the issues, expert evidence and judgement in Reay and Hope v. British Nuclear Fuels plc

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harrison, R.J.

    1999-01-01

    Providing a socio-legal analysis of the issues, expert evidence and judgment in Reay and Hope v BNFL plc., the thesis offers an insight into the complexity of the toxic tort. Starting with an overview of the history of Sellafield, the thesis reflects on the scientific and epidemiological concerns surrounding the link between childhood cancer and nuclear installations. Drawing on scientific knowledge and epistemological considerations, the thesis moves on to the difficulties of verifying causation in science and the problems of establishing causation in law. Outlining the role of the expert witness and scientific expert evidence, the thesis proceeds with a case analysis, before broaching the thorny issue of judicial decision making and in particular, the difference between the 'discovery' and 'justification' process. Moving on to the Judgment in Reay and Hope, attention is given to the potential application of probability theory to the judicial decision making process. Lasting just short of one hundred days and including the testimony of numerous scientific experts, Reay and Hope marked new ground in a number of ways; it was the first personal injury claim to test the concept of genetic damage from radiation; the only time that a Queen's Bench Division Judge had been allocated a full-time judicial assistant, and one of the first trials to endorse a satellite video link for examination of international expert witnesses. As far as judicial management is concerned, the case was a forerunner in having Counsels' Opening Statements in writing in advance of the trial, as well as having written daily submissions of key issues from plaintiffs and defendants upon conclusion of oral evidence. The circumstances that led to the trial relate to events in excess of thirty to forty years ago when the fathers of Dorothy Reay and Vivien Hope were employed by the Defendants and their predecessors (the United Kingdom Atomic Energy Authority) as fitters for the Sellafield Plant

  13. Scientific evidence and the toxic tort. A socio-legal study of the issues, expert evidence and judgement in Reay and Hope v. British Nuclear Fuels plc

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Harrison, R.J

    1999-07-01

    Providing a socio-legal analysis of the issues, expert evidence and judgment in Reay and Hope v BNFL plc., the thesis offers an insight into the complexity of the toxic tort. Starting with an overview of the history of Sellafield, the thesis reflects on the scientific and epidemiological concerns surrounding the link between childhood cancer and nuclear installations. Drawing on scientific knowledge and epistemological considerations, the thesis moves on to the difficulties of verifying causation in science and the problems of establishing causation in law. Outlining the role of the expert witness and scientific expert evidence, the thesis proceeds with a case analysis, before broaching the thorny issue of judicial decision making and in particular, the difference between the 'discovery' and 'justification' process. Moving on to the Judgment in Reay and Hope, attention is given to the potential application of probability theory to the judicial decision making process. Lasting just short of one hundred days and including the testimony of numerous scientific experts, Reay and Hope marked new ground in a number of ways; it was the first personal injury claim to test the concept of genetic damage from radiation; the only time that a Queen's Bench Division Judge had been allocated a full-time judicial assistant, and one of the first trials to endorse a satellite video link for examination of international expert witnesses. As far as judicial management is concerned, the case was a forerunner in having Counsels' Opening Statements in writing in advance of the trial, as well as having written daily submissions of key issues from plaintiffs and defendants upon conclusion of oral evidence. The circumstances that led to the trial relate to events in excess of thirty to forty years ago when the fathers of Dorothy Reay and Vivien Hope were employed by the Defendants and their predecessors (the United Kingdom Atomic Energy Authority) as fitters for

  14. Expert systems and computer based industrial systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dunand, R.

    1989-01-01

    Framentec is the artificial intelligence subsidiary of FRAMATOME. It is involved in expert-system activities of Shells, developments, methodology and software for maintenance (Maintex) and consulting and methodology. Specific applications in the nuclear field are presented. The first is an expert system to assist in the piping support design prototype, the second is an expert system that assists an ultrasonic testing operator in determining the nature of a welding defect and the third is a welding machine diagnosis advisor. Maintex is a software tool to provide assistance in the repair of complex industrial equipment. (author)

  15. A fuzzy expert system based on relations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hall, L.O.; Kandel, A.

    1986-01-01

    The Fuzzy Expert System (FESS) is an expert system which makes use of the theory of fuzzy relations to perform inference. Relations are very general and can be used for any application, which only requires different types of relations be implemented and used. The incorporation of fuzzy reasoning techniques enables the expert system to deal with imprecision in a well-founded manner. The knowledge is represented in relational frames. FESS may operate in either a forward chaining or backward chaining manner. It uses primarily implication and factual relations. A unique methodology for combination of evidence has been developed. It makes uses of a blackboard for communication between the various knowledge sources which may operate in parallel. The expert system has been designed in such a manner that it may be used for diverse applications

  16. ART-Ada: An Ada-based expert system tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, S. Daniel; Allen, Bradley P.

    1991-01-01

    The Department of Defense mandate to standardize on Ada as the language for software systems development has resulted in increased interest in making expert systems technology readily available in Ada environments. NASA's Space Station Freedom is an example of the large Ada software development projects that will require expert systems in the 1990's. Another large scale application that can benefit from Ada based expert system tool technology is the Pilot's Associate (PA) expert system project for military combat aircraft. Automated Reasoning Tool (ART) Ada, an Ada Expert system tool is described. ART-Ada allow applications of a C-based expert system tool called ART-IM to be deployed in various Ada environments. ART-Ada is being used to implement several prototype expert systems for NASA's Space Station Freedom Program and the U.S. Air Force.

  17. The CBT Advisor: An Expert System Program for Making Decisions about CBT.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kearsley, Greg

    1985-01-01

    Discusses structure, credibility, and use of the Computer Based Training (CBT) Advisor, an expert system designed to help managers make judgements about course selection, system selection, cost/benefits, development effort, and probable success of CBT projects. (MBR)

  18. Judgement on Windscale

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roberts, G.C.; White, I.F.

    1978-01-01

    A summary is given of the findings of the report on the Windscale Inquiry into the application by British Nuclear Fuels Limited for planning permission to establish a plant for reprocessing irradiated oxide nuclear fuels (The Windscale Inquiry. Report by the Hon. Mr. Justice Parker, 26 January 1978, Vol.1, Report and Annexes 3 to 5, HMSO). Particular attention is given to comments in the report on the ICRP and NRPB, radiation protection standards, and the risks associated with fuel reprocessing. The bases of the judgements made are given, together with Mr. Justice Parker's recommenda-tions for the setting of discharge limits, monitoring discharges and levels of environmental radioactivity, and the assessment of what constitutes a tolerable risk to the public. (U.K)

  19. A Belief Rule-Based Expert System to Diagnose Influenza

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hossain, Mohammad Shahadat; Khalid, Md. Saifuddin; Akter, Shamima

    2014-01-01

    , development and application of an expert system to diagnose influenza under uncertainty. The recently developed generic belief rule-based inference methodology by using the evidential reasoning (RIMER) approach is employed to develop this expert system, termed as Belief Rule Based Expert System (BRBES......). The RIMER approach can handle different types of uncertainties, both in knowledge representation, and in inference procedures. The knowledge-base of this system was constructed by using records of the real patient data along with in consultation with the Influenza specialists of Bangladesh. Practical case...

  20. Intelligent judgements over health risks in a spatial agent-based model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdulkareem, Shaheen A; Augustijn, Ellen-Wien; Mustafa, Yaseen T; Filatova, Tatiana

    2018-03-20

    Millions of people worldwide are exposed to deadly infectious diseases on a regular basis. Breaking news of the Zika outbreak for instance, made it to the main media titles internationally. Perceiving disease risks motivate people to adapt their behavior toward a safer and more protective lifestyle. Computational science is instrumental in exploring patterns of disease spread emerging from many individual decisions and interactions among agents and their environment by means of agent-based models. Yet, current disease models rarely consider simulating dynamics in risk perception and its impact on the adaptive protective behavior. Social sciences offer insights into individual risk perception and corresponding protective actions, while machine learning provides algorithms and methods to capture these learning processes. This article presents an innovative approach to extend agent-based disease models by capturing behavioral aspects of decision-making in a risky context using machine learning techniques. We illustrate it with a case of cholera in Kumasi, Ghana, accounting for spatial and social risk factors that affect intelligent behavior and corresponding disease incidents. The results of computational experiments comparing intelligent with zero-intelligent representations of agents in a spatial disease agent-based model are discussed. We present a spatial disease agent-based model (ABM) with agents' behavior grounded in Protection Motivation Theory. Spatial and temporal patterns of disease diffusion among zero-intelligent agents are compared to those produced by a population of intelligent agents. Two Bayesian Networks (BNs) designed and coded using R and are further integrated with the NetLogo-based Cholera ABM. The first is a one-tier BN1 (only risk perception), the second is a two-tier BN2 (risk and coping behavior). We run three experiments (zero-intelligent agents, BN1 intelligence and BN2 intelligence) and report the results per experiment in terms of

  1. Emotions and assessment: considerations for rater-based judgements of entrustment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gomez-Garibello, Carlos; Young, Meredith

    2018-03-01

    Assessment is subject to increasing scrutiny as medical education transitions towards a competency-based medical education (CBME) model. Traditional perspectives on the roles of assessment emphasise high-stakes, summative assessment, whereas CBME argues for formative assessment. Revisiting conceptualisations about the roles and formats of assessment in medical education provides opportunities to examine understandings and expectations of the assessment of learners. The act of the rater generating scores might be considered as an exclusively cognitive exercise; however, current literature has drawn attention to the notion of raters as measurement instruments, thereby attributing additional factors to their decision-making processes, such as social considerations and intuition. However, the literature has not comprehensively examined the influence of raters' emotions during assessment. In this narrative review, we explore the influence of raters' emotions in the assessment of learners. We summarise existing literature that describes the role of emotions in assessment broadly, and rater-based assessment specifically, across a variety of fields. The literature related to emotions and assessment is examined from different perspectives, including those of educational context, decision making and rater cognition. We use the concept of entrustable professional activities (EPAs) to contextualise a discussion of the ways in which raters' emotions may have meaningful impacts on the decisions they make in clinical settings. This review summarises findings from different perspectives and identifies areas for consideration for the role of emotion in rater-based assessment, and areas for future research. We identify and discuss three different interpretations of the influence of raters' emotions during assessments: (i) emotions lead to biased decision making; (ii) emotions contribute random noise to assessment, and (iii) emotions constitute legitimate sources of information that

  2. An Embedded Rule-Based Diagnostic Expert System in Ada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Robert E.; Liberman, Eugene M.

    1992-01-01

    Ada is becoming an increasingly popular programming language for large Government-funded software projects. Ada with it portability, transportability, and maintainability lends itself well to today's complex programming environment. In addition, expert systems have also assumed a growing role in providing human-like reasoning capability expertise for computer systems. The integration is discussed of expert system technology with Ada programming language, especially a rule-based expert system using an ART-Ada (Automated Reasoning Tool for Ada) system shell. NASA Lewis was chosen as a beta test site for ART-Ada. The test was conducted by implementing the existing Autonomous Power EXpert System (APEX), a Lisp-based power expert system, in ART-Ada. Three components, the rule-based expert systems, a graphics user interface, and communications software make up SMART-Ada (Systems fault Management with ART-Ada). The rules were written in the ART-Ada development environment and converted to Ada source code. The graphics interface was developed with the Transportable Application Environment (TAE) Plus, which generates Ada source code to control graphics images. SMART-Ada communicates with a remote host to obtain either simulated or real data. The Ada source code generated with ART-Ada, TAE Plus, and communications code was incorporated into an Ada expert system that reads the data from a power distribution test bed, applies the rule to determine a fault, if one exists, and graphically displays it on the screen. The main objective, to conduct a beta test on the ART-Ada rule-based expert system shell, was achieved. The system is operational. New Ada tools will assist in future successful projects. ART-Ada is one such tool and is a viable alternative to the straight Ada code when an application requires a rule-based or knowledge-based approach.

  3. From Being Non-Judgemental to Deconstructing Normalising Judgement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winslade, John M.

    2013-01-01

    Beginning with Carl Rogers' exhortation for counsellors to be non-judgemental of their clients, this article explores the rationale for withholding judgement in therapy, including diagnostic judgement. It traces Rogers' incipient sociopolitical analysis as a foundation for this ethic and argues that Michel Foucault provides a stronger…

  4. Aesthetic Judgement of Orientation in Modern Art

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    George Mather

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available When creating an artwork, the artist makes a decision regarding the orientation at which the work is to be hung based on their aesthetic judgement and the message conveyed by the piece. Is the impact or aesthetic appeal of a work diminished when it is hung at an incorrect orientation? To investigate this question, Experiment 1 asked whether naïve observers can appreciate the correct orientation (as defined by the artist of 40 modern artworks, some of which are entirely abstract. Eighteen participants were shown 40 paintings in a series of trials. Each trial presented all four cardinal orientations on a computer screen, and the participant was asked to select the orientation that was most attractive or meaningful. Results showed that the correct orientation was selected in 48% of trials on average, significantly above the 25% chance level, but well below perfect performance. A second experiment investigated the extent to which the 40 paintings contained recognisable content, which may have mediated orientation judgements. Recognition rates varied from 0% for seven of the paintings to 100% for five paintings. Orientation judgements in Experiment 1 correlated significantly with “meaningful” content judgements in Experiment 2: 42% of the variance in orientation judgements in Experiment 1 was shared with recognition of meaningful content in Experiment 2. For the seven paintings in which no meaningful content at all was detected, 41% of the variance in orientation judgements was shared with variance in a physical measure of image content, Fourier amplitude spectrum slope. For some paintings, orientation judgements were quite consistent, despite a lack of meaningful content. The origin of these orientation judgements remains to be identified.

  5. Ask-the-expert: Active Learning Based Knowledge Discovery Using the Expert

    Science.gov (United States)

    Das, Kamalika; Avrekh, Ilya; Matthews, Bryan; Sharma, Manali; Oza, Nikunj

    2017-01-01

    Often the manual review of large data sets, either for purposes of labeling unlabeled instances or for classifying meaningful results from uninteresting (but statistically significant) ones is extremely resource intensive, especially in terms of subject matter expert (SME) time. Use of active learning has been shown to diminish this review time significantly. However, since active learning is an iterative process of learning a classifier based on a small number of SME-provided labels at each iteration, the lack of an enabling tool can hinder the process of adoption of these technologies in real-life, in spite of their labor-saving potential. In this demo we present ASK-the-Expert, an interactive tool that allows SMEs to review instances from a data set and provide labels within a single framework. ASK-the-Expert is powered by an active learning algorithm for training a classifier in the backend. We demonstrate this system in the context of an aviation safety application, but the tool can be adopted to work as a simple review and labeling tool as well, without the use of active learning.

  6. The influence of affective and cognitive arguments on message judgement and attitude change: The moderating effects of meta-bases and structural bases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keer, Mario; van den Putte, Bas; Neijens, Peter; de Wit, John

    2013-01-01

    This study investigated whether the efficacy of affective vs. cognitive persuasive messages was moderated by (1) individuals' subjective assessments of whether their attitudes were based on affect or cognition (i.e. meta-bases) and (2) the degree individuals' attitudes were correlated with affect and cognition (i.e. structural bases). Participants (N = 97) were randomly exposed to a message containing either affective or cognitive arguments discouraging binge drinking. The results demonstrated that meta-bases and not structural bases moderated the influence of argument type on message judgement. Affective (cognitive) messages were judged more positively when individuals' meta-bases were more affective (cognitive). In contrast, structural bases and not meta-bases moderated the influence of argument type on attitude and intention change following exposure to the message. Surprisingly, change was greater among individuals who read a message that mismatched their structural attitude base. Affective messages were more effective as attitudes were more cognition-based, and vice versa. Thus, although individuals prefer messages that match their meta-base, attitude and intention change regarding binge drinking are best established by mismatching their structural base.

  7. Rule - based Fault Diagnosis Expert System for Wind Turbine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Deng Xiao-Wen

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Under the trend of increasing installed capacity of wind power, the intelligent fault diagnosis of wind turbine is of great significance to the safe and efficient operation of wind farms. Based on the knowledge of fault diagnosis of wind turbines, this paper builds expert system diagnostic knowledge base by using confidence production rules and expert system self-learning method. In Visual Studio 2013 platform, C # language is selected and ADO.NET technology is used to access the database. Development of Fault Diagnosis Expert System for Wind Turbine. The purpose of this paper is to realize on-line diagnosis of wind turbine fault through human-computer interaction, and to improve the diagnostic capability of the system through the continuous improvement of the knowledge base.

  8. The microcomputer-based expert system in CAD-PV

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Y.; Qin, S.

    1987-01-01

    As a branch of artificial intelligence, expert system has been revealed day after day in more and more engineering scopes since the successful applications of MYCIN in diagnosis and DENDRAL in the molecular structure of organic compounds etc.. But in the design scope of pressure vessel, as we know, only a few papers have so far been published with respect to the expert system. The necessity and feasibility of accompanying CAD-PV with expert system attracted more scholars to engage in. Although many countries, including China, have regularized the design standards or codes for pressure vessel, but of which no one can solve all of the problems concerning the various practical occasions and experiences. In general, the more domain knowledges a design engineer possesses of, the better decision will be made by him. By virtue of the expert system any less experienced engineer could make the optimum decision in design as well as a skilled senior engineer in addition to the application of design code. It is the due significance for developing high level expert system as an intelligence assistant in the plan option of CAD-PV. In this paper we attempt to introduce a specified software JACKPV used in the design procedure of jacketed pressure vessel as an intelligence front in CAD-PV. JACKPV consists of the function of expert system based on the personal computer IBM-PC/XT with the language PASCAL in its program. It was proved that an ordinary CAD software could be effectively improved while equipped with expert system. (orig.)

  9. Feed type based expert systems in mineral processing plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jamsa-Jounela, S.-L.; Laine, S.; Laurila, H.

    1999-01-01

    Artificial Intelligence includes excellent tools for the control and supervision of industrial processes. Several thousand industrial applications have been reported worldwide. Recently, the designers of the AI systems have begun to hybridize the intelligent techniques, expert systems, fuzzy logic and neural networks, to enhance the capability of the AI systems. Expert systems have proved to be ideal candidates especially for the control of mineral processes. As successful case projects, expert system based on on-line classification of the feed type is described in this paper. The essential feature of this expert system is the classification of different feed types and their distinct control strategies at the plant. In addition to the classification, the expert system has a database containing information about how to handle the determined feed type. This self-learning database scans historical process data to suggest the best treatment for the ore type under processing. The system has been tested in two concentrators, the Outokumpu Finnmines Oy, Hitura mine and Outokumpu Chrome Oy, Kemi mine. (author)

  10. Model-based expert systems for linac computer controls

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, M.J.

    1988-09-01

    The use of machine modeling and beam simulation programs for the control of accelerator operation has become standard practice. The success of a model-based control operation depends on how the parameter to be controlled is measured, how the measured data is analyzed, how the result of the analysis is interpreted, and how a solution is implemented. There is considerable interest in applying expert systems technology that can automate all of these processes. The design of an expert system to control the beam trajectory in linear accelerators will be discussed as an illustration of this approach. 4 figs., 1 tab

  11. Web-based expert system for foundry pollution prevention

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moynihan, Gary P.

    2004-02-01

    Pollution prevention is a complex task. Many small foundries lack the in-house expertise to perform these tasks. Expert systems are a type of computer information system that incorporates artificial intelligence. As noted in the literature, they provide a means of automating specialized expertise. This approach may be further leveraged by implementing the expert system on the internet (or world-wide web). This will allow distribution of the expertise to a variety of geographically-dispersed foundries. The purpose of this research is to develop a prototype web-based expert system to support pollution prevention for the foundry industry. The prototype system identifies potential emissions for a specified process, and also provides recommendations for the prevention of these contaminants. The system is viewed as an initial step toward assisting the foundry industry in better meeting government pollution regulations, as well as improving operating efficiencies within these companies.

  12. Integrated Knowledge Based Expert System for Disease Diagnosis System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arbaiy, Nureize; Sulaiman, Shafiza Eliza; Hassan, Norlida; Afizah Afip, Zehan

    2017-08-01

    The role and importance of healthcare systems to improve quality of life and social welfare in a society have been well recognized. Attention should be given to raise awareness and implementing appropriate measures to improve health care. Therefore, a computer based system is developed to serve as an alternative for people to self-diagnose their health status based on given symptoms. This strategy should be emphasized so that people can utilize the information correctly as a reference to enjoy healthier life. Hence, a Web-based Community Center for Healthcare Diagnosis system is developed based on expert system technique. Expert system reasoning technique is employed in the system to enable information about treatment and prevention of the diseases based on given symptoms. At present, three diseases are included which are arthritis, thalassemia and pneumococcal. Sets of rule and fact are managed in the knowledge based system. Web based technology is used as a platform to disseminate the information to users in order for them to optimize the information appropriately. This system will benefit people who wish to increase health awareness and seek expert knowledge on the diseases by performing self-diagnosis for early disease detection.

  13. An expert system based software sizing tool, phase 2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friedlander, David

    1990-01-01

    A software tool was developed for predicting the size of a future computer program at an early stage in its development. The system is intended to enable a user who is not expert in Software Engineering to estimate software size in lines of source code with an accuracy similar to that of an expert, based on the program's functional specifications. The project was planned as a knowledge based system with a field prototype as the goal of Phase 2 and a commercial system planned for Phase 3. The researchers used techniques from Artificial Intelligence and knowledge from human experts and existing software from NASA's COSMIC database. They devised a classification scheme for the software specifications, and a small set of generic software components that represent complexity and apply to large classes of programs. The specifications are converted to generic components by a set of rules and the generic components are input to a nonlinear sizing function which makes the final prediction. The system developed for this project predicted code sizes from the database with a bias factor of 1.06 and a fluctuation factor of 1.77, an accuracy similar to that of human experts but without their significant optimistic bias.

  14. Bases for conceptualisation of the notion of expert thinking

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krnjaić Zora

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Institute of Psychology, Faculty of Philosophy, University of Belgrade This paper presents the bases for conceptualisation of the notion of expert thinking: the key concepts from the L.S. Vygotsky's theory and modern theories of giftedness, as well as empirical findings about the differences in achievement of gifted students from different academic study groups. We first present the conceptual core of the notion of expert thinking, i.e. the concept of artificial development from the sociocultural-historical theory of Vygotsky. Then we proceed to the bases which refer to relevant theoretical discussions and empirical findings about the development of giftedness and expertise, indicating that the phenomena of giftedness and expert thinking can be considered as general developmental psychological problems and in the context of general cognitive development and thinking. Special part refers to empirical data about differences in achievement in psychological tests by the most successful intellectually gifted students from various academic study groups. The paper also includes the working definition of expert thinking, which is defined as thinking of higher order, developed under the influence of culture and systematic education, in the course of which deep knowledge structures are acquired, enabling performance of specific patterns of intellectual operations which depend on particular epistemological nature of individual knowledge domains.

  15. An expert systems application to space base data processing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Babb, Stephen M.

    1988-01-01

    The advent of space vehicles with their increased data requirements are reflected in the complexity of future telemetry systems. Space based operations with its immense operating costs will shift the burden of data processing and routine analysis from the space station to the Orbital Transfer Vehicle (OTV). A research and development project is described which addresses the real time onboard data processing tasks associated with a space based vehicle, specifically focusing on an implementation of an expert system.

  16. An Expert System-Based Approach to Hospitality Company Diagnosis

    OpenAIRE

    Balfe, Andrew; O'Connor, Peter; McDonnell, Ciaran

    1994-01-01

    This paper describes the development of a prototype Expert System-based Analysis and Diagnostic (ESAD) package for the Hotel and Catering Industry. This computerised tool aids the hospitality manager in methodically scrutinising the hotel unit and environment, combining key information with systematic reasoning. The system searches through its extensive knowledge base, investigating complicated relationships. The number of possibilities considered is increased which will broaden the depth and...

  17. Consistency and reliability of judgements by assessors of case based discussions in general practice specialty training programmes in the United Kingdom.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bodgener, Susan; Denney, Meiling; Howard, John

    2017-01-01

    Case based discussions (CbDs) are a mandatory workplace assessment used throughout general practitioner (GP) specialty training; they contribute to the annual review of competence progression (ARCP) for each trainee. This study examined the judgements arising from CbDs made by different groups of assessors and whether or not these assessments supported ARCP decisions. The trainees selected were at the end of their first year of GP training and had been identified during their ARCPs to need extra training time. CbDs were specifically chosen as they are completed by both hospital and GP supervisors, enabling comparison between these two groups. The results raise concern with regard to the consistency of judgements made by different groups of assessors, with significant variance between assessors of different status and seniority. Further work needs to be done on whether the CbD in its current format is fit for purpose as one of the mandatory WPBAs for GP trainees, particularly during their hospital placements. There is a need to increase the inter-rater reliability of CbDs to ensure a consistent contribution to subsequent decisions about a trainee's overall progress.

  18. Developing a personal computer based expert system for radionuclide identification

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aarnio, P.A.; Hakulinen, T.T.

    1990-01-01

    Several expert system development tools are available for personal computers today. We have used one of the LISP-based high end tools for nearly two years in developing an expert system for identification of gamma sources. The system contains a radionuclide database of 2055 nuclides and 48000 gamma transitions with a knowledge base of about sixty rules. This application combines a LISP-based inference engine with database management and relatively heavy numerical calculations performed using C-language. The most important feature needed has been the possibility to use LISP and C together with the more advanced object oriented features of the development tool. Main difficulties have been long response times and the big amount (10-16 MB) of computer memory required

  19. Counter-intuitive moral judgement following traumatic brain injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rowley, Dane A; Rogish, Miles; Alexander, Timothy; Riggs, Kevin J

    2017-02-07

    Several neurological patient populations, including traumatic brain injury (TBI), appear to produce an abnormally 'utilitarian' pattern of judgements to moral dilemmas; they tend to make judgements that maximize the welfare of the majority, rather than deontological judgements based on the following of moral rules (e.g., do not harm others). However, this patient research has always used extreme dilemmas with highly valued moral rules (e.g., do not kill). Data from healthy participants, however, suggest that when a wider range of dilemmas are employed, involving less valued moral rules (e.g., do not lie), moral judgements demonstrate sensitivity to the psychological intuitiveness of the judgements, rather than their deontological or utilitarian content (Kahane et al., Social Cognitive and Affective Neuroscience, 7, 2011, 393). We sought the moral judgements of 30 TBI participants and 30 controls on moral dilemmas where content (utilitarian/deontological) and intuition (intuitive/counter-intuitive) were measured concurrently. Overall TBI participants made utilitarian judgements in equal proportions to controls; disproportionately favouring utilitarian judgements only when they were counter-intuitive, and deontological judgements only when they were counter-intuitive. These results speak against the view that TBI causes a specific utilitarian bias, suggesting instead that moral intuition is broadly disrupted following TBI. © 2017 The British Psychological Society.

  20. Teachers' professional judgement in real teaching situations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mikkelsen, Sidse Hølvig; Daugbjerg, Peer; Sommer, Lise

    2017-01-01

    Teachers' daily work is complex consisting of teaching, dialogue with pupils, principals, colleagues, parents besides a variety of daily supervision tasks. This entails that the teachers' workdays are loaded with judgements, evaluations, reflections and actions founded on reasonable considerations....... Teachers' capability to make sensible judgements in pedagogical situations and moments are based on their personal norms and knowledge. Norms and knowledge that makes it possible for them to make well-considered decisions regarding good teaching. Teachers' planned changes in teaching are typically well...... as well as unconscious and they are expressed bodily and verbally. The presentation will discuss methodological approach on how to investigate teachers' professional judgement. We will use video recordings of actual teaching situations to generate dialogue with the participating teachers. The dialogue...

  1. A PC-based expert system for nondestructive testing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shankar, R.; Williams, R.; Smith, C.; Selby, G.

    1991-01-01

    Rule-based decision logic which can emulate problem-solving expertise of humans is being explored for power plant nondestructive evaluation (NDE) applications. This paper describes an effort underway at the EPRI NDE Center to assist in the interpretation of NDE data acquired by automatic systems during ultrasonic weld examination of boiling-water reactors (BWRs). A personal computer (PC) -based expert system shell was used to encode rules and assemble knowledge to address the discrimination of intergranular stress corrosion cracking (IGSCC) from benign reflectors in the inspection of pipe-to-component welds. The rules attempt to factor in plant inspection history, ultrasonic examination data nd, if available, radiography testing data; a majority of them deal with specific ultrasonic signal temporal and spatial behavior during automatic scanning. The paper describes the efforts in the development of the expert system

  2. Knowledge based economy: The role of expert diaspora

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Filipović Jovan

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Diasporas stand out as an economic or cultural avant-garde of transformation. This is especially true for academic and other intellectual Diaspora communities, because science and knowledge creation are global enterprises. Proclivity of knowledge workers to move in order to improve and absorb transnational knowledge through Diaspora networks might be an essential quality of an emerging national economy of a developing country. The article treats the role of expert Diaspora in knowledge based economy, innovation and talent management. Besides presenting the essentials of knowledge based economy and innovation, it discusses the role of expert Diaspora in science, technology and innovation (STI capacity building. Also, the article emphasizes the importance of leadership for talent and its implications for Diaspora. Using WEF statistics, it illustrates negative consequences of the sad policy of “Chaseaway the brightest and the best” for innovative capacity, competitiveness, and prosperity of nations.

  3. Designing Fuzzy Rule Based Expert System for Cyber Security

    OpenAIRE

    Goztepe, Kerim

    2016-01-01

    The state of cyber security has begun to attract more attention and interest outside the community of computer security experts. Cyber security is not a single problem, but rather a group of highly different problems involving different sets of threats. Fuzzy Rule based system for cyber security is a system consists of a rule depository and a mechanism for accessing and running the rules. The depository is usually constructed with a collection of related rule sets. The aim of this study is to...

  4. An expert system for vibration based diagnostics of rotating machines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Korteniemi, A.

    1990-01-01

    Very often changes in the mechanical condition of the rotating machinery can be observed as changes in its vibration. This paper presents an expert system for vibration-based diagnosis of rotating machines by describing the architecture of the developed prototype system. The importance of modelling the problem solving knowledge as well as the domain knowledge is emphasized by presenting the knowledge in several levels

  5. Putting the puzzle together: the role of 'problem definition' in complex clinical judgement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cristancho, Sayra; Lingard, Lorelei; Forbes, Thomas; Ott, Michael; Novick, Richard

    2017-02-01

    We teach judgement in pieces; that is, we talk about each aspect separately (patient, plan, resources, technique, etc.). We also let trainees figure out how to put the pieces together. In complex situations, this might be problematic. Using data from a drawing-based study on surgeons' experiences with complex situations, we explore the notion of 'problem definition' in real-world clinical judgement using the theoretical lens of systems engineering. 'Emergence', the sensitising concept for analysis, is rooted in two key systems premises: that person and context are inseparable and that what emerges is an act of choice. Via a 'gallery walk' we used these premises to perform analysis on individual drawings as well as cross-comparisons of multiple drawings. Our focus was to understand similarities and differences among the vantage points used by multiple surgeons. In this paper we challenge two assumptions from current models of clinical judgement: that experts hold a fixed and static definition of the problem and that consequently the focus of the expert's work is on solving the problem. Each situation described by our participants revealed different but complementary perspectives of what a surgical problem might come to be: from concerns about ensuring standard of care, to balancing personal emotions versus care choices, to coordinating resources, and to maintaining control while in the midst of personality clashes. We suggest that it is only at the situation and system level, not at the individual level, that we are able to appreciate the nuances of defining the problem when experts make judgements during real-world complex situations. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd and The Association for the Study of Medical Education.

  6. Clinical judgement and the emotions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyd, G

    2014-07-01

    The basic emotions are more important in decision making than we think. So we need to be aware of them and look not just for rationality in our clinical judgements but rational judgements that 'feel' right. © 2014 The Authors; Internal Medicine Journal © 2014 Royal Australasian College of Physicians.

  7. Patient preferences versus physicians' judgement: does it make a difference in healthcare decision making?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mühlbacher, Axel C; Juhnke, Christin

    2013-06-01

    Clinicians and public health experts make evidence-based decisions for individual patients, patient groups and even whole populations. In addition to the principles of internal and external validity (evidence), patient preferences must also influence decision making. Great Britain, Australia and Germany are currently discussing methods and procedures for valuing patient preferences in regulatory (authorization and pricing) and in health policy decision making. However, many questions remain on how to best balance patient and public preferences with physicians' judgement in healthcare and health policy decision making. For example, how to define evaluation criteria regarding the perceived value from a patient's perspective? How do physicians' fact-based opinions also reflect patients' preferences based on personal values? Can empirically grounded theories explain differences between patients and experts-and, if so, how? This article aims to identify and compare studies that used different preference elicitation methods and to highlight differences between patient and physician preferences. Therefore, studies comparing patient preferences and physician judgements were analysed in a review. This review shows a limited amount of literature analysing and comparing patient and physician preferences for healthcare interventions and outcomes. Moreover, it shows that methodology used to compare preferences is diverse. A total of 46 studies used the following methods-discrete-choice experiments, conjoint analyses, standard gamble, time trade-offs and paired comparisons-to compare patient preferences with doctor judgements. All studies were published between 1985 and 2011. Most studies reveal a disparity between the preferences of actual patients and those of physicians. For most conditions, physicians underestimated the impact of intervention characteristics on patients' decision making. Differentiated perceptions may reflect ineffective communication between the provider

  8. Knowledge based expert system approach to instrumentation selection (INSEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Barai

    2004-08-01

    Full Text Available The selection of appropriate instrumentation for any structural measurement of civil engineering structure is a complex task. Recent developments in Artificial Intelligence (AI can help in an organized use of experiential knowledge available on instrumentation for laboratory and in-situ measurement. Usually, the instrumentation decision is based on the experience and judgment of experimentalists. The heuristic knowledge available for different types of measurement is domain dependent and the information is scattered in varied knowledge sources. The knowledge engineering techniques can help in capturing the experiential knowledge. This paper demonstrates a prototype knowledge based system for INstrument SELection (INSEL assistant where the experiential knowledge for various structural domains can be captured and utilized for making instrumentation decision. In particular, this Knowledge Based Expert System (KBES encodes the heuristics on measurement and demonstrates the instrument selection process with reference to steel bridges. INSEL runs on a microcomputer and uses an INSIGHT 2+ environment.

  9. An expert fitness diagnosis system based on elastic cloud computing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tseng, Kevin C; Wu, Chia-Chuan

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents an expert diagnosis system based on cloud computing. It classifies a user's fitness level based on supervised machine learning techniques. This system is able to learn and make customized diagnoses according to the user's physiological data, such as age, gender, and body mass index (BMI). In addition, an elastic algorithm based on Poisson distribution is presented to allocate computation resources dynamically. It predicts the required resources in the future according to the exponential moving average of past observations. The experimental results show that Naïve Bayes is the best classifier with the highest accuracy (90.8%) and that the elastic algorithm is able to capture tightly the trend of requests generated from the Internet and thus assign corresponding computation resources to ensure the quality of service.

  10. An Expert Fitness Diagnosis System Based on Elastic Cloud Computing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kevin C. Tseng

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an expert diagnosis system based on cloud computing. It classifies a user’s fitness level based on supervised machine learning techniques. This system is able to learn and make customized diagnoses according to the user’s physiological data, such as age, gender, and body mass index (BMI. In addition, an elastic algorithm based on Poisson distribution is presented to allocate computation resources dynamically. It predicts the required resources in the future according to the exponential moving average of past observations. The experimental results show that Naïve Bayes is the best classifier with the highest accuracy (90.8% and that the elastic algorithm is able to capture tightly the trend of requests generated from the Internet and thus assign corresponding computation resources to ensure the quality of service.

  11. Distributed Web-Based Expert System for Launch Operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bardina, Jorge E.; Thirumalainambi, Rajkumar

    2005-01-01

    The simulation and modeling of launch operations is based on a representation of the organization of the operations suitable to experiment of the physical, procedural, software, hardware and psychological aspects of space flight operations. The virtual test bed consists of a weather expert system to advice on the effect of weather to the launch operations. It also simulates toxic gas dispersion model, and the risk impact on human health. Since all modeling and simulation is based on the internet, it could reduce the cost of operations of launch and range safety by conducting extensive research before a particular launch. Each model has an independent decision making module to derive the best decision for launch.

  12. Structure of the knowledge base for an expert labeling system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajaram, N. S.

    1981-01-01

    One of the principal objectives of the NASA AgRISTARS program is the inventory of global crop resources using remotely sensed data gathered by Land Satellites (LANDSAT). A central problem in any such crop inventory procedure is the interpretation of LANDSAT images and identification of parts of each image which are covered by a particular crop of interest. This task of labeling is largely a manual one done by trained human analysts and consequently presents obstacles to the development of totally automated crop inventory systems. However, development in knowledge engineering as well as widespread availability of inexpensive hardware and software for artificial intelligence work offers possibilities for developing expert systems for labeling of crops. Such a knowledge based approach to labeling is presented.

  13. 29 CFR 18.703 - Bases of opinion testimony by experts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... Bases of opinion testimony by experts. The facts or data in the particular case upon which an expert... 29 Labor 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 true Bases of opinion testimony by experts. 18.703 Section 18.703 Labor Office of the Secretary of Labor RULES OF PRACTICE AND PROCEDURE FOR ADMINISTRATIVE HEARINGS...

  14. A new Expert Finding model based on Term Correlation Matrix

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ehsan Pornour

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Due to the enormous volume of unstructured information available on the Web and inside organization, finding an answer to the knowledge need in a short time is difficult. For this reason, beside Search Engines which don’t consider users individual characteristics, Recommender systems were created which use user’s previous activities and other individual characteristics to help users find needed knowledge. Recommender systems usage is increasing every day. Expert finder systems also by introducing expert people instead of recommending information to users have provided this facility for users to ask their questions form experts. Having relation with experts not only causes information transition, but also with transferring experiences and inception causes knowledge transition. In this paper we used university professors academic resume as expert people profile and then proposed a new expert finding model that recommends experts to users query. We used Term Correlation Matrix, Vector Space Model and PageRank algorithm and proposed a new hybrid model which outperforms conventional methods. This model can be used in internet environment, organizations and universities that experts have resume dataset.

  15. Expert music performance: cognitive, neural, and developmental bases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Rachel M; Zatorre, Robert J; Penhune, Virginia B

    2015-01-01

    In this chapter, we explore what happens in the brain of an expert musician during performance. Understanding expert music performance is interesting to cognitive neuroscientists not only because it tests the limits of human memory and movement, but also because studying expert musicianship can help us understand skilled human behavior in general. In this chapter, we outline important facets of our current understanding of the cognitive and neural basis for music performance, and developmental factors that may underlie musical ability. We address three main questions. (1) What is expert performance? (2) How do musicians achieve expert-level performance? (3) How does expert performance come about? We address the first question by describing musicians' ability to remember, plan, execute, and monitor their performances in order to perform music accurately and expressively. We address the second question by reviewing evidence for possible cognitive and neural mechanisms that may underlie or contribute to expert music performance, including the integration of sound and movement, feedforward and feedback motor control processes, expectancy, and imagery. We further discuss how neural circuits in auditory, motor, parietal, subcortical, and frontal cortex all contribute to different facets of musical expertise. Finally, we address the third question by reviewing evidence for the heritability of musical expertise and for how expertise develops through training and practice. We end by discussing outlooks for future work. © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. Rule-based expert system for maritime anomaly detection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roy, Jean

    2010-04-01

    Maritime domain operators/analysts have a mandate to be aware of all that is happening within their areas of responsibility. This mandate derives from the needs to defend sovereignty, protect infrastructures, counter terrorism, detect illegal activities, etc., and it has become more challenging in the past decade, as commercial shipping turned into a potential threat. In particular, a huge portion of the data and information made available to the operators/analysts is mundane, from maritime platforms going about normal, legitimate activities, and it is very challenging for them to detect and identify the non-mundane. To achieve such anomaly detection, they must establish numerous relevant situational facts from a variety of sensor data streams. Unfortunately, many of the facts of interest just cannot be observed; the operators/analysts thus use their knowledge of the maritime domain and their reasoning faculties to infer these facts. As they are often overwhelmed by the large amount of data and information, automated reasoning tools could be used to support them by inferring the necessary facts, ultimately providing indications and warning on a small number of anomalous events worthy of their attention. Along this line of thought, this paper describes a proof-of-concept prototype of a rule-based expert system implementing automated rule-based reasoning in support of maritime anomaly detection.

  17. The BASES expert statement on emotion regulation in sport.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lane, Andrew M; Beedie, Chris J; Jones, Marc V; Uphill, Mark; Devonport, Tracey J

    2012-01-01

    Emotions experienced before and during sports competition have been found to influence sports performance. Emotion regulation is defined as the automatic or deliberate use of strategies to initiate, maintain, modify or display emotions (Gross & Thompson, 2007) and is proposed to occur when a discrepancy exists between current and desired emotions. Two distinct motivations to regulate emotion - hedonic and instrumental (in short, for pleasure or for purpose) - have been proposed (Tamir, 2009). The instrumental approach might provide a more fruitful area of investigation for sports researchers as some athletes hold beliefs that supposedly pleasant emotions such as happiness and calmness associate with poor performance and supposedly unpleasant emotions such as anxiety and anger associate with good performance (Hanin, 2010). Athletes are more likely to try to regulate an emotion if they believe that doing so will facilitate performance. Strategies that encourage re-appraisal of factors that trigger emotions are proposed to be preferable. In this British Association of Sport and Exercise Sciences (BASES) expert statement, a summary of the key theoretical issues are offered leading to evidence-based recommendations for practitioners and researchers.

  18. The Potential of Computer-Based Expert Systems for Special Educators in Rural Settings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parry, James D.; Ferrara, Joseph M.

    Knowledge-based expert computer systems are addressing issues relevant to all special educators, but are particularly relevant in rural settings where human experts are less available because of distance and cost. An expert system is an application of artificial intelligence (AI) that typically engages the user in a dialogue resembling the…

  19. A Web-Based Rice Plant Expert System Using Rule-Based Reasoning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anton Setiawan Honggowibowo

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Rice plants can be attacked by various kinds of diseases which are possible to be determined from their symptoms. However, it is to recognize that to find out the exact type of disease, an agricultural expert’s opinion is needed, meanwhile the numbers of agricultural experts are limited and there are too many problems to be solved at the same time. This makes a system with a capability as an expert is required. This system must contain the knowledge of the diseases and symptom of rice plants as an agricultural expert has to have. This research designs a web-based expert system using rule-based reasoning. The rule are modified from the method of forward chaining inference and backward chaining in order to to help farmers in the rice plant disease diagnosis. The web-based rice plants disease diagnosis expert system has the advantages to access and use easily. With web-based features inside, it is expected that the farmer can accesse the expert system everywhere to overcome the problem to diagnose rice diseases.

  20. A living PSA based on use of expert systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ancelin, C.; Bouissou, M.; Le, P.; De Saint-Quentin, S.; Villatte, N.

    1989-01-01

    This paper presents the expert systems that are developed by EDF in the framework of the French PSA. Aimed at automatically generating reliability models (fault trees, state graphs....), these expert systems are used for the reliability studies of safety systems in the Paluel nuclear power plant. Beyond the description of the implemented method, this paper insists on the new approach proposed to the reliability engineer, when using artificial intelligence techniques

  1. Evaluation of a Performance-Based Expert Elicitation: WHO Global Attribution of Foodborne Diseases

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aspinall, W. P.; Cooke, R. M.; Havelaar, A. H.

    2016-01-01

    . This paper presents new findings from a large-scale international SEJ study intended to estimate the global burden of foodborne disease on behalf of WHO. The study involved 72 experts distributed over 134 expert panels, with panels comprising thirteen experts on average. Elicitations were conducted in five...... languages. Performance-based weighted solutions for target questions of interest were formed for each panel. These weights were based on individual expert's statistical accuracy and informativeness, determined using between ten and fifteen calibration variables from the experts' field with known values...

  2. NDT-based bridge condition assessment supported by expert tools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bień, J.; KuŻawa, M.

    2016-06-01

    This paper is focused on the progress in the application of Expert Tools supporting integration of inspection and NDT testing findings in order to effectuate effective decision making by bridge owners. Possibilities of knowledge representation in the intelligent computer Expert Tools by means of the multi-level hybrid network technology are described. These multi-level hybrid networks can be built of neural, fuzzy and functional components depending on the problem that needs to be solved and on the type of available information. Application of the technology is illustrated by an example of the Bridge Evaluation Expert Function (BEEF) implemented in the Railway Bridge Management System "SMOK" operated by the Polish State Railways.

  3. Expert-systems and computer-based industrial systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Terrien, J.F.

    1987-01-01

    Framatome makes wide use of expert systems, computer-assisted engineering, production management and personnel training. It has set up separate business units and subsidiaries and also participates in other companies which have the relevant expertise. Five examples of the products and services available in these are discussed. These are in the field of applied artificial intelligence and expert-systems, in integrated computer-aid design and engineering, structural analysis, computer-related products and services and document management systems. The structure of the companies involved and the work they are doing is discussed. (UK)

  4. Expert status and performance.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark A Burgman

    Full Text Available Expert judgements are essential when time and resources are stretched or we face novel dilemmas requiring fast solutions. Good advice can save lives and large sums of money. Typically, experts are defined by their qualifications, track record and experience. The social expectation hypothesis argues that more highly regarded and more experienced experts will give better advice. We asked experts to predict how they will perform, and how their peers will perform, on sets of questions. The results indicate that the way experts regard each other is consistent, but unfortunately, ranks are a poor guide to actual performance. Expert advice will be more accurate if technical decisions routinely use broadly-defined expert groups, structured question protocols and feedback.

  5. A Fuzzy Rule-Based Expert System for Evaluating Intellectual Capital

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Hossein Fazel Zarandi

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available A fuzzy rule-based expert system is developed for evaluating intellectual capital. A fuzzy linguistic approach assists managers to understand and evaluate the level of each intellectual capital item. The proposed fuzzy rule-based expert system applies fuzzy linguistic variables to express the level of qualitative evaluation and criteria of experts. Feasibility of the proposed model is demonstrated by the result of intellectual capital performance evaluation for a sample company.

  6. The Method of Adaptive Comparative Judgement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pollitt, Alastair

    2012-01-01

    Adaptive Comparative Judgement (ACJ) is a modification of Thurstone's method of comparative judgement that exploits the power of adaptivity, but in scoring rather than testing. Professional judgement by teachers replaces the marking of tests; a judge is asked to compare the work of two students and simply to decide which of them is the better.…

  7. Strategies for adding adaptive learning mechanisms to rule-based diagnostic expert systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stclair, D. C.; Sabharwal, C. L.; Bond, W. E.; Hacke, Keith

    1988-01-01

    Rule-based diagnostic expert systems can be used to perform many of the diagnostic chores necessary in today's complex space systems. These expert systems typically take a set of symptoms as input and produce diagnostic advice as output. The primary objective of such expert systems is to provide accurate and comprehensive advice which can be used to help return the space system in question to nominal operation. The development and maintenance of diagnostic expert systems is time and labor intensive since the services of both knowledge engineer(s) and domain expert(s) are required. The use of adaptive learning mechanisms to increment evaluate and refine rules promises to reduce both time and labor costs associated with such systems. This paper describes the basic adaptive learning mechanisms of strengthening, weakening, generalization, discrimination, and discovery. Next basic strategies are discussed for adding these learning mechanisms to rule-based diagnostic expert systems. These strategies support the incremental evaluation and refinement of rules in the knowledge base by comparing the set of advice given by the expert system (A) with the correct diagnosis (C). Techniques are described for selecting those rules in the in the knowledge base which should participate in adaptive learning. The strategies presented may be used with a wide variety of learning algorithms. Further, these strategies are applicable to a large number of rule-based diagnostic expert systems. They may be used to provide either immediate or deferred updating of the knowledge base.

  8. Expert Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Lucas, P.J.F.

    2005-01-01

    Expert systems mimic the problem-solving activity of human experts in specialized domains by capturing and representing expert knowledge. Expert systems include a knowledge base, an inference engine that derives conclusions from the knowledge, and a user interface. Knowledge may be stored as if-then rules, orusing other formalisms such as frames and predicate logic. Uncertain knowledge may be represented using certainty factors, Bayesian networks, Dempster-Shafer belief functions, or fuzzy se...

  9. Could situational judgement tests be used for selection into dental foundation training?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patterson, F; Ashworth, V; Mehra, S; Falcon, H

    2012-07-13

    To pilot and evaluate a machine-markable situational judgement test (SJT) designed to select candidates into UK dental foundation training. Single centre pilot study. UK postgraduate deanery in 2010. Seventy-four candidates attending interview for dental foundation training in Oxford and Wessex Deaneries volunteered to complete the situational judgement test. The situational judgement test was developed to assess relevant professional attributes for dentistry (for example, empathy and integrity) in a machine-markable format. Test content was developed by subject matter experts working with experienced psychometricians. Evaluation of psychometric properties of the pilot situational judgement test (for example, reliability, validity and fairness). Scores in the dental foundation training selection process (short-listing and interviews) were used to examine criterion-related validity. Candidates completed an evaluation questionnaire to examine candidate reactions and face validity of the new test. Forty-six candidates were female and 28 male; mean age was 23.5-years-old (range 22-32). Situational judgement test scores were normally distributed and the test showed good internal reliability when corrected for test length (α = 0.74). Situational judgement test scores positively correlated with the management, leadership and professionalism interview (N = 50; r = 0.43, p fair. This initial pilot study suggests that a situational judgement test is an appropriate and innovative method to measure professional attributes (eg empathy and integrity) for selection into foundation training. Further research will explore the long-term predictive validity of the situational judgement test once candidates have entered training.

  10. The BASES expert statement in safeguarding in the sport sciences.

    OpenAIRE

    Kavanagh, Emma J.; Knowles, Z.; Brady, A.; Rhind, D.; Gervis, M.; Miles, A.; Davison, R.

    2016-01-01

    Within the context of sport and exercise science, safeguarding concerns a professional obligation to protect all parties (for example the client, athlete and/or self) from maltreatment or harm (Mountjoy et al., 2016). Safeguarding should embrace relational (others), individual (self) and organisational (culture) considerations. The understanding of physical, emotional and social well-being and freedom from discrimination are the focus of safeguarding education. In this expert statement we pro...

  11. Neural network-based expert system for severe accident management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klopp, G.T.; Silverman, E.B.

    1992-01-01

    This paper presents the results of the second phase of a three-phase Severe Accident Management expert system program underway at Commonwealth Edison Company (CECo). Phase I successfully demonstrated the feasibility of Artificial Neural Networks to support several of the objectives of severe accident management. Simulated accident scenarios were generated by the Modular Accident Analysis Program (MAAP) code currently in use by CECo as part of their Individual Plant Evaluations (IPE)/Accident Management Program. The primary objectives of the second phase were to develop and demonstrate four capabilities of neural networks with respect to nuclear power plant severe accident monitoring and prediction. The results of this work would form the foundation of a demonstration system which included expert system performance features. These capabilities included the ability to: (1) Predict the time available prior to support plate (and reactor vessel) failure; (2) Calculate the time remaining until recovery actions were too late to prevent core damage; (3) Predict future parameter values of each of the MAAP parameter variables; and (4) Detect simulated sensor failure and provide best-value estimates for further processing in the presence of a sensor failure. A variety of accident scenarios for the Zion and Dresden plants were used to train and test the neural network expert system. These included large and small break LOCAs as well as a range of transient events. 3 refs., 1 fig., 1 tab

  12. Site Specific Probable Maximum Precipitation Estimates and Professional Judgement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayes, B. D.; Kao, S. C.; Kanney, J. F.; Quinlan, K. R.; DeNeale, S. T.

    2015-12-01

    State and federal regulatory authorities currently rely upon the US National Weather Service Hydrometeorological Reports (HMRs) to determine probable maximum precipitation (PMP) estimates (i.e., rainfall depths and durations) for estimating flooding hazards for relatively broad regions in the US. PMP estimates for the contributing watersheds upstream of vulnerable facilities are used to estimate riverine flooding hazards while site-specific estimates for small water sheds are appropriate for individual facilities such as nuclear power plants. The HMRs are often criticized due to their limitations on basin size, questionable applicability in regions affected by orographic effects, their lack of consist methods, and generally by their age. HMR-51 for generalized PMP estimates for the United States east of the 105th meridian, was published in 1978 and is sometimes perceived as overly conservative. The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), is currently reviewing several flood hazard evaluation reports that rely on site specific PMP estimates that have been commercially developed. As such, NRC has recently investigated key areas of expert judgement via a generic audit and one in-depth site specific review as they relate to identifying and quantifying actual and potential storm moisture sources, determining storm transposition limits, and adjusting available moisture during storm transposition. Though much of the approach reviewed was considered a logical extension of HMRs, two key points of expert judgement stood out for further in-depth review. The first relates primarily to small storms and the use of a heuristic for storm representative dew point adjustment developed for the Electric Power Research Institute by North American Weather Consultants in 1993 in order to harmonize historic storms for which only 12 hour dew point data was available with more recent storms in a single database. The second issue relates to the use of climatological averages for spatially

  13. Development of a rule-based diagnostic platform on an object-oriented expert system shell

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Wenlin; Yang, Ming; Seong, Poong Hyun

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • Multilevel Flow Model represents system knowledge as a domain map in expert system. • Rule-based fault diagnostic expert system can identify root cause via a causal chain. • Rule-based fault diagnostic expert system can be used for fault simulation training. - Abstract: This paper presents the development and implementation of a real-time rule-based diagnostic platform. The knowledge is acquired from domain experts and textbooks and the design of the fault diagnosis expert system was performed in the following ways: (i) establishing of corresponding classes and instances to build the domain map, (ii) creating of generic fault models based on events, and (iii) building of diagnostic reasoning based on rules. Knowledge representation is a complicated issue of expert systems. One highlight of this paper is that the Multilevel Flow Model has been used to represent the knowledge, which composes the domain map within the expert system as well as providing a concise description of the system. The developed platform is illustrated using the pressure safety system of a pressurized water reactor as an example of the simulation test bed; the platform is developed using the commercial and industrially validated software G2. The emulation test was conducted and it has been proven that the fault diagnosis expert system can identify the faults correctly and in a timely way; this system can be used as a simulation-based training tool to assist operators to make better decisions.

  14. Time-based air traffic management using expert systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tobias, L.; Scoggins, J. L.

    1986-01-01

    A prototype expert system was developed for the time scheduling of aircraft into the terminal area. The three functions of the air traffic control schedule advisor are as follows: first, for each new arrival, it develops an admissible flight plan for that aircraft. Second, as the aircraft progresses through the terminal area, it monitors deviations from the flight plan and provides advisories to return the aircraft to its assigned schedule. Third, if major disruptions such as missed approaches occur, it develops a revised plan. The advisor is operational on a Symbolics 3600, and is programed in MRS (a logic programming language), Lisp, and FORTRAN.

  15. Brazilian medical students’ perceptions of expert versus non-expert facilitators in a (non problem-based learning environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lucélio B. Couto

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Background: In problem-based learning (PBL, the facilitator plays an important role in guiding the student learning process. However, although content expertise is generally regarded as a useful but non-essential prerequisite for effective PBL facilitation, the perceived importance of content knowledge may be subject to cultural, contextual, and/or experiential influences. Aim: We sought to examine medical students’ perceptions of subject-matter expertise among PBL facilitators in a region of the world (Brazil where such active learning pedagogies are not widely used in university or pre-university settings. Results: Of the 252 Brazilian medical students surveyed, significantly (p≤0.001 greater proportions viewed content expert facilitators to be more effective than their non-expert counterparts at building knowledge (95% vs. 6%, guiding the learning process (93% vs. 7%, achieving cognitive learning (92% vs. 18%, generating learning goals (87% vs. 15%, and motivating self-study (80% vs. 15%. Discussion/conclusion: According to Brazilian medical students, subject-matter expertise among PBL facilitators is essential to the learning process. We believe this widespread perception is due, in large part, to the relative lack of prior educational exposure to such pedagogies.

  16. Expert System

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hildebrandt, Thomas Troels; Cattani, Gian Luca

    2016-01-01

    An expert system is a computer system for inferring knowledge from a knowledge base, typically by using a set of inference rules. When the concept of expert systems was introduced at Stanford University in the early 1970s, the knowledge base was an unstructured set of facts. Today the knowledge b...... for the application of expert systems, but also raises issues regarding privacy and legal liability....

  17. Techniques and implementation of the embedded rule-based expert system using Ada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liberman, Eugene M.; Jones, Robert E.

    1991-01-01

    Ada is becoming an increasingly popular programming language for large Government-funded software projects. Ada with its portability, transportability, and maintainability lends itself well to today's complex programming environment. In addition, expert systems have also assured a growing role in providing human-like reasoning capability and expertise for computer systems. The integration of expert system technology with Ada programming language, specifically a rule-based expert system using an ART-Ada (Automated Reasoning Tool for Ada) system shell is discussed. The NASA Lewis Research Center was chosen as a beta test site for ART-Ada. The test was conducted by implementing the existing Autonomous Power EXpert System (APEX), a Lisp-base power expert system, in ART-Ada. Three components, the rule-based expert system, a graphics user interface, and communications software make up SMART-Ada (Systems fault Management with ART-Ada). The main objective, to conduct a beta test on the ART-Ada rule-based expert system shell, was achieved. The system is operational. New Ada tools will assist in future successful projects. ART-Ada is one such tool and is a viable alternative to the straight Ada code when an application requires a rule-based or knowledge-based approach.

  18. A design condition for incorporating human judgement into monitoring systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tanaka, K.; Klir, G.J.

    1999-01-01

    In safety monitoring, there exists an uncertainty situation in which the sensor cannot detect whether or not the monitored object is in danger. For the uncertainty zone identified by a non-homogeneous safety monitoring system that utilizes two types of sensors with different thresholds, operators or experts are expected to judge whether the real state is safe or dangerous on the basis of additional information from a detailed inspection or other related sensors output. However, the activities for inspection performed by relevant humans may require additional cost and introduce inspection errors. The present article proposes two types of an automatic monitoring system not involving any human inspection or a human-machine (H-M) cooperative monitoring system with inspection. In order to compare the systems, an approach based on the Dempster-Shafer theory is proposed as uncertainty analysis by this theory (it is simpler than by the traditional Bayesian approach). By comparing their expected losses as a result of failed dangerous failures or failed safe failures as well as the inspection errors, the condition is determined under which H-M cooperative systems incorporating human judgements are more effective than automatic monitoring systems

  19. Professional nurses' understanding of clinical judgement: A contextual inquiry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna C. van Graan

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Higher cognitive skills are essential competencies for nurses joining the technologically and increasingly complex health care environment to provide safe and effective nursing care. Educators and clinical facilitators have recognised that newly qualified nurses do not meet the expectations for entry level clinical judgement and are held accountable for finding adequate learning experiences as preparation for such practice demands. An explorative and descriptive qualitative design was followed in this study to reach an understanding of clinical judgement in the clinical nursing environment from the perspective of professional nurses. Eleven professional nurses (n = 11 working at primary health care clinics, public and private hospitals participated voluntarily. Data was collected by means of the “World Café” method, incorporating a combination of techniques such as interviewing, discussions, drawings, narratives and reflection. The focus was on professional nurses' knowledge of the meaning of clinical judgement and factors influencing the development of clinical judgement in the clinical environment. Qualitative thematic content analysis principles were applied during data analysis. The findings were integrated with the relevant literature to culminate in conclusions that should add to the knowledge base of clinical judgement as an essential skill for improving autonomous and accountable nursing care.

  20. Professional nurses' understanding of clinical judgement: A contextual inquiry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna C. van Graan

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Higher cognitive skills are essential competencies for nurses joining the technologically and increasingly complex health care environment to provide safe and effective nursing care. Educators and clinical facilitators have recognised that newly qualified nurses do not meet the expectations for entry level clinical judgement and are held accountable for finding adequate learning experiences as preparation for such practice demands. An explorative and descriptive qualitative design was followed in this study to reach an understanding of clinical judgement in the clinical nursing environment from the perspective of professional nurses. Eleven professional nurses (n = 11 working at primary health care clinics, public and private hospitals participated voluntarily. Data was collected by means of the “World Cafe” method, incorporating a combination of techniques such as interviewing, discussions, drawings, narratives and reflection. The focus was on professional nurses' knowledge of the meaning of clinical judgement and factors influencing the development of clinical judgement in the clinical environment. Qualitative thematic content analysis principles were applied during data analysis. The findings were integrated with the relevant literature to culminate in conclusions that should add to the knowledge base of clinical judgement as an essential skill for improving autonomous and accountable nursing care.

  1. A Study on Satellite Diagnostic Expert Systems Using Case-Based Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Young-Tack Park

    1997-06-01

    Full Text Available Many research works are on going to monitor and diagnose diverse malfunctions of satellite systems as the complexity and number of satellites increase. Currently, many works on monitoring and diagnosis are carried out by human experts but there are needs to automate much of the routine works of them. Hence, it is necessary to study on using expert systems which can assist human experts routine work by doing automatically, thereby allow human experts devote their expertise more critical and important areas of monitoring and diagnosis. In this paper, we are employing artificial intelligence techniques to model human experts' knowledge and inference the constructed knowledge. Especially, case-based approaches are used to construct a knowledge base to model human expert capabilities which use previous typical exemplars. We have designed and implemented a prototype case-based system for diagnosing satellite malfunctions using cases. Our system remembers typical failure cases and diagnoses a current malfunction by indexing the case base. Diverse methods are used to build a more user friendly interface which allows human experts can build a knowledge base in as easy way.

  2. On the performance of social network and likelihood-based expert weighting schemes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cooke, Roger M.; ElSaadany, Susie; Huang Xinzheng

    2008-01-01

    Using expert judgment data from the TU Delft's expert judgment database, we compare the performance of different weighting schemes, namely equal weighting, performance-based weighting from the classical model [Cooke RM. Experts in uncertainty. Oxford: Oxford University Press; 1991.], social network (SN) weighting and likelihood weighting. The picture that emerges with regard to SN weights is rather mixed. SN theory does not provide an alternative to performance-based combination of expert judgments, since the statistical accuracy of the SN decision maker is sometimes unacceptably low. On the other hand, it does outperform equal weighting in the majority of cases. The results here, though not overwhelmingly positive, do nonetheless motivate further research into social interaction methods for nominating and weighting experts. Indeed, a full expert judgment study with performance measurement requires an investment in time and effort, with a view to securing external validation. If high confidence in a comparable level of validation can be obtained by less intensive methods, this would be very welcome, and would facilitate the application of structured expert judgment in situations where the resources for a full study are not available. Likelihood weights are just as resource intensive as performance-based weights, and the evidence presented here suggests that they are inferior to performance-based weights with regard to those scoring variables which are optimized in performance weights (calibration and information). Perhaps surprisingly, they are also inferior with regard to likelihood. Their use is further discouraged by the fact that they constitute a strongly improper scoring rule

  3. Development of a tool for knowledge base verification of expert system based on Design/CPN

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Jong Hyun

    1998-02-01

    Verification is a necessary work in developing a reliable expert system. Verification is a process aimed at demonstrating whether a system meets it's specified requirements. As expert systems are used in various applications, the knowledge base verification of systems takes an important position. The conventional Petri net approach that has been studied recently in order to verify the knowledge base is found that it is inadequate to verify the knowledge base of large and complex system, such as alarm processing system of nuclear power plant. Thus, we propose an improved method that models the knowledge base as enhanced colored Petri net. In this study, we analyze the reachability and the error characteristics of the knowledge base. Generally, verification process requires computational support by automated tools. For this reason, this study developed a tool for knowledge base verification based on Design/CPN, which is a tool for editing, modeling, and simulating Colored Petri net. This tool uses Enhanced Colored Petri net as a modeling method. By applying this tool to the knowledge base of nuclear power plant, it is noticed that it can successfully check most of the anomalies that can occur in a knowledge base

  4. Knowledge base to develop expert system prototype for predicting groundwater pollution from nitrogen fertilizer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ta-oun, M.; Daud, M.; Bardaie, M.Z.; Jusop, S.

    1999-01-01

    An expert system for prediction the impact of nitrogen fertilizer on groundwater pollution potential was established by using CLIPS (NASA's Jonson Space Centre). The knowledge base could be extracted from FAO reports, ministry of agriculture and rural development Malaysia report, established literature and domain expert for preparing an expert system skeleton. An expert system was used to correlate the availability of nitrogen fertilizer with the vulnerability of groundwater to pollution in Peninsula Malaysia and to identify potential groundwater quality problems. An n-fertilizer groundwater pollution potential index produced b using the vulnerability of groundwater to pollution yields a more accurate screening toll for identifying potential pollution problems than by considering vulnerability alone. An expert system can predict the groundwater pollution potential under several conditions of agricultural activities and existing environments. (authors)

  5. EXPERT SYSTEMS

    OpenAIRE

    Georgiana Marin; Mihai Catalin Andrei

    2011-01-01

    In recent decades IT and computer systems have evolved rapidly in economic informatics field. The goal is to create user friendly information systems that respond promptly and accurately to requests. Informatics systems evolved into decision assisted systems, and such systems are converted, based on gained experience, in expert systems for creative problem solving that an organization is facing. Expert systems are aimed at rebuilding human reasoning on the expertise obtained from experts, sto...

  6. A method of knowledge base verification and validation for nuclear power plants expert systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kwon, Il Won

    1996-02-01

    The adoption of expert systems mainly as operator supporting systems is becoming increasingly popular as the control algorithms of system become more and more sophisticated and complicated. As a result of this popularity, a large number of expert systems are developed. The nature of expert systems, however, requires that they be verified and validated carefully and that detailed methodologies for their development be devised. Therefore, it is widely noted that assuring the reliability of expert systems is very important, especially in nuclear industry, and it is also recognized that the process of verification and validation is an essential part of reliability assurance for these systems. Research and practices have produced numerous methods for expert system verification and validation (V and V) that suggest traditional software and system approaches to V and V. However, many approaches and methods for expert system V and V are partial, unreliable, and not uniform. The purpose of this paper is to present a new approach to expert system V and V, based on Petri nets, providing a uniform model. We devise and suggest an automated tool, called COKEP (Checker Of Knowledge base using Extended Petri net), for checking incorrectness, inconsistency, and incompleteness in a knowledge base. We also suggest heuristic analysis for validation process to show that the reasoning path is correct

  7. The role of engineering judgement, safety culture, and organizational factors in risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Muzumdar, Ajit; Professor, Visiting

    1996-01-01

    This paper reviews the role of engineering judgement, safety culture, and organizational factors in risk assessment by examining the reasons for human-based error. The need for more emphasis on producing engineers with good engineering judgement is described. The progress in quantifying the role of safety culture and organizational factors in risk assessment studies is summarized

  8. Knowledge acquisition from natural language for expert systems based on classification problem-solving methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gomez, Fernando

    1989-01-01

    It is shown how certain kinds of domain independent expert systems based on classification problem-solving methods can be constructed directly from natural language descriptions by a human expert. The expert knowledge is not translated into production rules. Rather, it is mapped into conceptual structures which are integrated into long-term memory (LTM). The resulting system is one in which problem-solving, retrieval and memory organization are integrated processes. In other words, the same algorithm and knowledge representation structures are shared by these processes. As a result of this, the system can answer questions, solve problems or reorganize LTM.

  9. Plant Distribution Data Show Broader Climatic Limits than Expert-Based Climatic Tolerance Estimates.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Caroline A Curtis

    Full Text Available Although increasingly sophisticated environmental measures are being applied to species distributions models, the focus remains on using climatic data to provide estimates of habitat suitability. Climatic tolerance estimates based on expert knowledge are available for a wide range of plants via the USDA PLANTS database. We aim to test how climatic tolerance inferred from plant distribution records relates to tolerance estimated by experts. Further, we use this information to identify circumstances when species distributions are more likely to approximate climatic tolerance.We compiled expert knowledge estimates of minimum and maximum precipitation and minimum temperature tolerance for over 1800 conservation plant species from the 'plant characteristics' information in the USDA PLANTS database. We derived climatic tolerance from distribution data downloaded from the Global Biodiversity and Information Facility (GBIF and corresponding climate from WorldClim. We compared expert-derived climatic tolerance to empirical estimates to find the difference between their inferred climate niches (ΔCN, and tested whether ΔCN was influenced by growth form or range size.Climate niches calculated from distribution data were significantly broader than expert-based tolerance estimates (Mann-Whitney p values << 0.001. The average plant could tolerate 24 mm lower minimum precipitation, 14 mm higher maximum precipitation, and 7° C lower minimum temperatures based on distribution data relative to expert-based tolerance estimates. Species with larger ranges had greater ΔCN for minimum precipitation and minimum temperature. For maximum precipitation and minimum temperature, forbs and grasses tended to have larger ΔCN while grasses and trees had larger ΔCN for minimum precipitation.Our results show that distribution data are consistently broader than USDA PLANTS experts' knowledge and likely provide more robust estimates of climatic tolerance, especially for

  10. Earthquakes and Tectonics Expert Judgment Elicitation Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coppersmith, K.J.; Perman, R.C.; Youngs, R.R.

    1993-02-01

    This report summarizes the results of the Earthquakes and Tectonics Expert Judgement Excitation Project sponsored by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI). The objectives of this study were two-fold: (1) to demonstrate methods for the excitation of expert judgement, and (2) to quantify the uncertainties associated with earthquake and tectonics issues for use in the EPRI-HLW performance assessment. Specifically, the technical issue considered is the probability of differential fault displacement through the proposed repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. For this study, a strategy for quantifying uncertainties was developed that relies on the judgements of multiple experts. A panel of seven geologists and seismologists was assembled to quantify the uncertainties associated with earthquake and tectonics issues for the performance assessment model. A series of technical workshops focusing on these issues were conducted. Finally, each expert was individually interviewed in order to elicit his judgement regarding the technical issues and to provide the technical basis for his assessment. This report summarizes the methodologies used to elicit the judgements of the earthquakes and tectonics experts (termed ''specialists''), and summarizes the technical assessments made by the expert panel

  11. Moderation and Consistency of Teacher Judgement: Teachers' Views

    Science.gov (United States)

    Connolly, Stephen; Klenowski, Valentina; Wyatt-Smith, Claire Maree

    2012-01-01

    Major curriculum and assessment reforms in Australia have generated research interest in issues related to standards, teacher judgement and moderation. This article is based on one related inquiry of a large-scale Australian Research Council Linkage project conducted in Queensland. This qualitative study analysed interview data to identify…

  12. Recognition and Judgement in Social Work

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Juul, Søren

    2009-01-01

    to recognition. In the first part, I outline the normative ideal and show its relevance for practical social work on the basis of social clients' experiences of disrespect. In the second, I expalin the concept of judgement and criticise the prevailing forms of judgement to be found in the social institutions...

  13. Judgement in achieving protection against radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taylor, L.S.

    1980-01-01

    This article includes the following topics: Ionizing radiation as a toxic agent; value judgement in establishing protection standards; origin of radiation protection standards; numerical radiation protection standards; exposure of populations; the proportional dose-effect relationship; assumptions involved in the proportional dose-effect relationship and a continued need for value judgement

  14. Vividness in judgements of guilt.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bensi, L; Nori, R; Strazzari, E; Giusberti, F

    2003-12-01

    This study investigated the vividness variable in legal decision-making. It was hypothesised that different verdicts regarding the same legal case can be obtained by simply varying the vividness of phrases, without changing any probative element. 53 participants read Original (26) or Vivid (27) versions of testimonies to a homicide case, then made a decision as to the defendant's guilt. Results support the hypothesis: participants' judgements significantly differ between the two conditions; that is, participants who read the Original version consider the homicide as unintentional while participants who read the Vivid one are not able to choose between intentional or unintentional homicide. Therefore we can infer that vividness influenced the process by which guilt is attributed.

  15. Expert2OWL: A Methodology for Pattern-Based Ontology Development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tahar, Kais; Xu, Jie; Herre, Heinrich

    2017-01-01

    The formalization of expert knowledge enables a broad spectrum of applications employing ontologies as underlying technology. These include eLearning, Semantic Web and expert systems. However, the manual construction of such ontologies is time-consuming and thus expensive. Moreover, experts are often unfamiliar with the syntax and semantics of formal ontology languages such as OWL and usually have no experience in developing formal ontologies. To overcome these barriers, we developed a new method and tool, called Expert2OWL that provides efficient features to support the construction of OWL ontologies using GFO (General Formal Ontology) as a top-level ontology. This method allows a close and effective collaboration between ontologists and domain experts. Essentially, this tool integrates Excel spreadsheets as part of a pattern-based ontology development and refinement process. Expert2OWL enables us to expedite the development process and modularize the resulting ontologies. We applied this method in the field of Chinese Herbal Medicine (CHM) and used Expert2OWL to automatically generate an accurate Chinese Herbology ontology (CHO). The expressivity of CHO was tested and evaluated using ontology query languages SPARQL and DL. CHO shows promising results and can generate answers to important scientific questions such as which Chinese herbal formulas contain which substances, which substances treat which diseases, and which ones are the most frequently used in CHM.

  16. On the use of judgement in probabilistic risk analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Apostolakis, G

    1986-05-01

    The extensive use of judgement in risk studies creates several issues related to the perception of probabilities and the value of formal theories for uncertainty analysis. The direct assessment of probability distributions may lead to biased curves that do not represent the state of knowledge of the assessors. The use of formal methods and the calibration of the analysts help alleviate some of these biases. Case studies involving the assessment of probability distributions for human error rates and for failure rates of components exemplify the importance of the careful use of expert opinions in risk studies.

  17. Expert Systems Based Clinical Assessment and Tutorial Project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papa, Frank; Shores, Jay

    This project at the Texas College of Osteopathic Medicine (Fort Worth) evaluated the use of an artificial-intelligence-derived measure, "Knowledge-Based Inference Tool" (KBIT), as the basis for assessing medical students' diagnostic capabilities and designing instruction to improve diagnostic skills. The instrument was designed to…

  18. Cell Phone-Based Expert Systems for Smoking Cessation

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-03-01

    intervention program. C.1 Demographics The sample (n=446) was composed of individuals from all but three U.S. states and Puerto Rico . There were...as comprehensive interventions, i.e., with minimal or no clinician contact, for panic disorder18, depression19–23, weight loss24, and diabetes self...Feil EG, Boles SM, Barrera MJ. Internet-based diabetes self- manage- ment and support: Initial outcomes from the diabetes network project

  19. A rule-based expert system for generating control displays at the Advanced Photon Source

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coulter, K.J.

    1993-01-01

    The integration of a rule-based expert system for generating screen displays for controlling and monitoring instrumentation under the Experimental Physics and Industrial Control System (EPICS) is presented. The expert system is implemented using CLIPS, an expert system shell from the Software Technology Branch at Lyndon B. Johnson Space Center. The user selects the hardware input and output to be displayed and the expert system constructs a graphical control screen appropriate for the data. Such a system provides a method for implementing a common look and feel for displays created by several different users and reduces the amount of time required to create displays for new hardware configurations. Users are able to modify the displays as needed using the EPICS display editor tool

  20. A rule-based expert system for generating control displays at the advanced photon source

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coulter, K.J.

    1994-01-01

    The integration of a rule-based expert system for generating screen displays for controlling and monitoring instrumentation under the Experimental Physics and Industrial Control System (EPICS) is presented. The expert system is implemented using CLIPS, an expert system shell from the Software Technology Branch at Lyndon B. Johnson Space Center. The user selects the hardware input and output to be displayed and the expert system constructs a graphical control screen appropriate for the data. Such a system provides a method for implementing a common look and feel for displays created by several different users and reduces the amount of time required to create displays for new hardware configurations. Users are able to modify the displays as needed using the EPICS display editor tool. ((orig.))

  1. Neural network based expert system for fault diagnosis of particle accelerators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dewidar, M.M.

    1997-01-01

    Particle accelerators are generators that produce beams of charged particles, acquiring different energies, depending on the accelerator type. The MGC-20 cyclotron is a cyclic particle accelerator used for accelerating protons, deuterons, alpha particles, and helium-3 to different energies. Its applications include isotope production, nuclear reaction, and mass spectroscopy studies. It is a complicated machine, it consists of five main parts, the ion source, the deflector, the beam transport system, the concentric and harmonic coils, and the radio frequency system. The diagnosis of this device is a very complex task. it depends on the conditions of 27 indicators of the control panel of the device. The accurate diagnosis can lead to a high system reliability and save maintenance costs. so an expert system for the cyclotron fault diagnosis is necessary to be built. In this thesis , a hybrid expert system was developed for the fault diagnosis of the MGC-20 cyclotron. Two intelligent techniques, multilayer feed forward back propagation neural network and the rule based expert system, are integrated as a pre-processor loosely coupled model to build the proposed hybrid expert system. The architecture of the developed hybrid expert system consists of two levels. The first level is two feed forward back propagation neural networks, used for isolating the faulty part of the cyclotron. The second level is the rule based expert system, used for troubleshooting the faults inside the isolated faulty part. 4-6 tabs., 4-5 figs., 36 refs

  2. Expert ease

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1984-04-01

    Expert-ease allows the most inexperienced of computer users to build an expert system in a matter of hours. It is nothing more or less than a computer based problem-solving system. It allows the expert to preserve his or her knowledge in the form of rules, which can be applied to problems put to the system by the non-expert. The crucial piece of software at the heart of Expert-Ease extracts rules from data, and is called the analogue concept learning system. It was developed by Intelligent Terminals Ltd. and supplied to Export Software International to be incorporated into a commercially attractive package for business users. The resulting product runs on the Act Sirius and the IBM PC and compatibles. It is a well conceived and polished product with a popular appeal that should ensure widespread acceptance even at a cost of >1500 plus vat.

  3. Developing a Web-Based Advisory Expert System for Implementing Traffic Calming Strategies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amir Falamarzi

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Lack of traffic safety has become a serious issue in residential areas. In this paper, a web-based advisory expert system for the purpose of applying traffic calming strategies on residential streets is described because there currently lacks a structured framework for the implementation of such strategies. Developing an expert system can assist and advise engineers for dealing with traffic safety problems. This expert system is developed to fill the gap between the traffic safety experts and people who seek to employ traffic calming strategies including decision makers, engineers, and students. In order to build the expert system, examining sources related to traffic calming studies as well as interviewing with domain experts have been carried out. The system includes above 150 rules and 200 images for different types of measures. The system has three main functions including classifying traffic calming measures, prioritizing traffic calming strategies, and presenting solutions for different traffic safety problems. Verifying, validating processes, and comparing the system with similar works have shown that the system is consistent and acceptable for practical uses. Finally, some recommendations for improving the system are presented.

  4. Design of a Fuzzy Rule Base Expert System to Predict and Classify ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The main objective of design of a rule base expert system using fuzzy logic approach is to predict and forecast the risk level of cardiac patients to avoid sudden death. In this proposed system, uncertainty is captured using rule base and classification using fuzzy c-means clustering is discussed to overcome the risk level, ...

  5. Use of Occupancy Models to Evaluate Expert Knowledge-based Species-Habitat Relationships

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Monica N. Iglecia

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Expert knowledge-based species-habitat relationships are used extensively to guide conservation planning, particularly when data are scarce. Purported relationships describe the initial state of knowledge, but are rarely tested. We assessed support in the data for suitability rankings of vegetation types based on expert knowledge for three terrestrial avian species in the South Atlantic Coastal Plain of the United States. Experts used published studies, natural history, survey data, and field experience to rank vegetation types as optimal, suitable, and marginal. We used single-season occupancy models, coupled with land cover and Breeding Bird Survey data, to examine the hypothesis that patterns of occupancy conformed to species-habitat suitability rankings purported by experts. Purported habitat suitability was validated for two of three species. As predicted for the Eastern Wood-Pewee (Contopus virens and Brown-headed Nuthatch (Sitta pusilla, occupancy was strongly influenced by vegetation types classified as "optimal habitat" by the species suitability rankings for nuthatches and wood-pewees. Contrary to predictions, Red-headed Woodpecker (Melanerpes erythrocephalus models that included vegetation types as covariates received similar support by the data as models without vegetation types. For all three species, occupancy was also related to sampling latitude. Our results suggest that covariates representing other habitat requirements might be necessary to model occurrence of generalist species like the woodpecker. The modeling approach described herein provides a means to test expert knowledge-based species-habitat relationships, and hence, help guide conservation planning.

  6. Developing a project-based computational physics course grounded in expert practice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burke, Christopher J.; Atherton, Timothy J.

    2017-04-01

    We describe a project-based computational physics course developed using a backwards course design approach. From an initial competency-based model of problem solving in computational physics, we interviewed faculty who use these tools in their own research to determine indicators of expert practice. From these, a rubric was formulated that enabled us to design a course intended to allow students to learn these skills. We also report an initial implementation of the course and, by having the interviewees regrade student work, show that students acquired many of the expert practices identified.

  7. A conversational case-based reasoning approach to assisting experts in solving professional problems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Negar Armaghan

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Nowadays, organizations attempt to retrieve, collect, preserve and manage knowledge and experience of experts in order to reuse them later and to promote innovation. In this sense, Experience Management is one of the important organizational issues. This article is discussed the main ideas of a future Conversational Case-Based Reasoning (CCBR intended to assist the experts of after-sales service in a French industrial company. The aim of this research is to formalize the experience of experts in after-sales service in order to better reuse them for similar problems in future. The research opts for an action research method which consists of two main parts: description of failure and proposition of decision protocol. The data were complemented by questionnaires, documentary analysis (including technical reports and other technical documents, observation and many interviews with experts. The findings include several aspects: the formalization of Problem-solving Cards, proposing the structure of case base, as well as the framework of proposed system. These formalizations permit after-sales service experts to provide effective diagnosis and problem-solving.

  8. Pengaruh Pengalaman Auditor Terhadap Ethical Judgement

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nujmatul Laily

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT: The Effect of Auditor’s Experience on Ethical Judgement. This research examines the effect of auditor’s experience on ethical judgement with auditor’s knowledge and professional commitment as intervening variable. By 82 public accountants were taken as samples.Data collection is done by mail survey and is empirically examined by using path analysis.The results shows that auditor’s experience has direct effect on ethical judgment but it has negative effect with auditor’s knowledge becomes an intervening variable. Auditor’s experience has direct effect on auditor’s knowledge and professional commitment. This study finds no relationship between professional commitment and ethical judgement. The finding of research concludes that experience and knowledge are determinants of ethical judgement.

  9. Automated implementation of rule-based expert systems with neural networks for time-critical applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramamoorthy, P. A.; Huang, Song; Govind, Girish

    1991-01-01

    In fault diagnosis, control and real-time monitoring, both timing and accuracy are critical for operators or machines to reach proper solutions or appropriate actions. Expert systems are becoming more popular in the manufacturing community for dealing with such problems. In recent years, neural networks have revived and their applications have spread to many areas of science and engineering. A method of using neural networks to implement rule-based expert systems for time-critical applications is discussed here. This method can convert a given rule-based system into a neural network with fixed weights and thresholds. The rules governing the translation are presented along with some examples. We also present the results of automated machine implementation of such networks from the given rule-base. This significantly simplifies the translation process to neural network expert systems from conventional rule-based systems. Results comparing the performance of the proposed approach based on neural networks vs. the classical approach are given. The possibility of very large scale integration (VLSI) realization of such neural network expert systems is also discussed.

  10. SLC beam line error analysis using a model-based expert system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, M.; Kleban, S.

    1988-02-01

    Commissioning particle beam line is usually a very time-consuming and labor-intensive task for accelerator physicists. To aid in commissioning, we developed a model-based expert system that identifies error-free regions, as well as localizing beam line errors. This paper will give examples of the use of our system for the SLC commissioning. 8 refs., 5 figs

  11. Comparing the creativity of children's design solutions based on expert assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Thang, B.; Sluis - Thiescheffer, R.J.W.; Bekker, M.M.; Eggen, J.H.; Vermeeren, A.P.O.S.; Ridder, de H.

    2008-01-01

    LOBBI Netherlands Consortium Subscribe (Full Service) Register (Limited Service, Free) Login Search: The ACM Digital Library The Guide Feedback Comparing the creativity of children's design solutions based on expert assessment Full text Pdf (3.04 MB) Source Interaction Design and Children archive

  12. Belief-rule-based expert systems for evaluation of e-government

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hossain, Mohammad Shahadat; Zander, Pär-Ola Mikael; Kamal, Md Sarwar

    2015-01-01

    , known as the Belief Rule Based Expert System (BRBES) and implemented in the local e-government of Bangladesh. The results have been compared with a recently developed method of evaluating e-government, and it is demonstrated that the results of the BRBES are more accurate and reliable. The BRBES can...

  13. The Use of Web Based Expert System Application for Identification and Intervention of Children with Special Needs in Inclusive School

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dian Atnantomi Wiliyanto

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available This research is conducted to determine the effectiveness of web based expert system application for identification and intervention of children with special needs in inclusive school. 40 teachers of inclusive school in Surakarta participated in this research. The result showed that: (1 web based expert system application was suitable with the needs of teachers/officers, had 50% (excellence criteria, (2 web based expert system application was worthwhile for identification of children with special needs, had 50% (excellence criteria, (3 web based expert system application was easy to use, had 52.5% (good criteria, and (4 web based expert system application had result accuracy in making decision, had 52.5% (good criteria. It shows that the use of web based expert system application is effective to be used by teachers in inclusive school in conducting identification and intervention with percentage on average was more than 50%.

  14. Web Based Cattle Disease Expert System Diagnosis with forward Chaining Method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zamsuri, Ahmad; Syafitri, Wenni; Sadar, Muhamad

    2017-12-01

    Cattle is one of the livestock who have high economic potential, whether for livestock, cattle seed, or even for food stock. Everything that comes from Cattle is a treasure for example the Milk, the Meat, and Cattle-hide. The factor that cause Cattles to die is the spread of disease that could crock up the Cattle’s health. So that the Expert system is needed to utilize and analye the Cattle’s disease so it could detect the disease without going to the veterinarian. Forward chaining method is one of the correct method in this expert system wherein began with Symptoms to determine the illness. From this matter, we built a web based expert system application on Cattles disease to ease the disease detection and showing the brief information about the Cattles itself.

  15. Group prioritisation with unknown expert weights in incomplete linguistic context

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Dong; Cheng, Faxin; Zhou, Zhili; Wang, Juan

    2017-09-01

    In this paper, we study a group prioritisation problem in situations when the expert weights are completely unknown and their judgement preferences are linguistic and incomplete. Starting from the theory of relative entropy (RE) and multiplicative consistency, an optimisation model is provided for deriving an individual priority vector without estimating the missing value(s) of an incomplete linguistic preference relation. In order to address the unknown expert weights in the group aggregating process, we define two new kinds of expert weight indicators based on RE: proximity entropy weight and similarity entropy weight. Furthermore, a dynamic-adjusting algorithm (DAA) is proposed to obtain an objective expert weight vector and capture the dynamic properties involved in it. Unlike the extant literature of group prioritisation, the proposed RE approach does not require pre-allocation of expert weights and can solve incomplete preference relations. An interesting finding is that once all the experts express their preference relations, the final expert weight vector derived from the DAA is fixed irrespective of the initial settings of expert weights. Finally, an application example is conducted to validate the effectiveness and robustness of the RE approach.

  16. Effectiveness of User- and Expert-Driven Web-based Hypertension Programs: an RCT.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Sam; Brooks, Dina; Thomas, Scott G; Eysenbach, Gunther; Nolan, Robert P

    2018-04-01

    The effectiveness of self-guided Internet-based lifestyle counseling (e-counseling) varies, depending on treatment protocol. Two dominant procedures in e-counseling are expert- and user-driven. The influence of these procedures on hypertension management remains unclear. The objective was to assess whether blood pressure improved with expert-driven or user-driven e-counseling over control intervention in patients with hypertension over a 4-month period. This study used a three-parallel group, double-blind randomized controlled design. In Toronto, Canada, 128 participants (aged 35-74 years) with hypertension were recruited. Participants were recruited using online and poster advertisements. Data collection took place between June 2012 and June 2014. Data were analyzed from October 2014 to December 2016. Controls received a weekly e-mail newsletter regarding hypertension management. The expert-driven group was prescribed a weekly exercise and diet plan (e.g., increase 1,000 steps/day this week). The user-driven group received weekly e-mail, which allowed participants to choose their intervention goals (e.g., [1] feel more confident to change my lifestyle, or [2] self-help tips for exercise or a heart healthy diet). Primary outcome was systolic blood pressure measured at baseline and 4-month follow-up. Secondary outcomes included cholesterol, 10-year Framingham cardiovascular risk, daily steps, and dietary habits. Expert-driven groups showed a greater systolic blood pressure decrease than controls at follow-up (expert-driven versus control: -7.5 mmHg, 95% CI= -12.5, -2.6, p=0.01). Systolic blood pressure reduction did not significantly differ between user- and expert-driven. Expert-driven compared with controls also showed a significant improvement in pulse pressure, cholesterol, and Framingham risk score. The expert-driven intervention was significantly more effective than both user-driven and control groups in increasing daily steps and fruit intake. It may be

  17. Integration of professional judgement and decision-making in high-level adventure sports coaching practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collins, Loel; Collins, Dave

    2015-01-01

    This study examined the integration of professional judgement and decision-making processes in adventure sports coaching. The study utilised a thematic analysis approach to investigate the decision-making practices of a sample of high-level adventure sports coaches over a series of sessions. Results revealed that, in order to make judgements and decisions in practice, expert coaches employ a range of practical and pedagogic management strategies to create and opportunistically use time for decision-making. These approaches include span of control and time management strategies to facilitate the decision-making process regarding risk management, venue selection, aims, objectives, session content, and differentiation of the coaching process. The implication for coaches, coach education, and accreditation is the recognition and training of the approaches that "create time" for the judgements in practice, namely "creating space to think". The paper concludes by offering a template for a more expertise-focused progression in adventure sports coaching.

  18. Web-based Weather Expert System (WES) for Space Shuttle Launch

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bardina, Jorge E.; Rajkumar, T.

    2003-01-01

    The Web-based Weather Expert System (WES) is a critical module of the Virtual Test Bed development to support 'go/no go' decisions for Space Shuttle operations in the Intelligent Launch and Range Operations program of NASA. The weather rules characterize certain aspects of the environment related to the launching or landing site, the time of the day or night, the pad or runway conditions, the mission durations, the runway equipment and landing type. Expert system rules are derived from weather contingency rules, which were developed over years by NASA. Backward chaining, a goal-directed inference method is adopted, because a particular consequence or goal clause is evaluated first, and then chained backward through the rules. Once a rule is satisfied or true, then that particular rule is fired and the decision is expressed. The expert system is continuously verifying the rules against the past one-hour weather conditions and the decisions are made. The normal procedure of operations requires a formal pre-launch weather briefing held on Launch minus 1 day, which is a specific weather briefing for all areas of Space Shuttle launch operations. In this paper, the Web-based Weather Expert System of the Intelligent Launch and range Operations program is presented.

  19. A fault diagnosis and operation advising cooperative expert system based on multi-agent technology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhao, W.; Bai, X.; Ding, J.; Fang, Z.; Li, Z. [China Electric Power Research Inst., Haidian District, Beijing (China)

    2006-07-01

    Power systems are becoming more and more complex. In addition, the amount of real-time alarm messages from the supervisory control and data acquisition, energy management systems and wide area measurement systems about switchgear and protection are also increasing to a point far beyond the operator's capacity to digest the information. Research and development of a fault diagnosis system is necessary for the timely identification of fault or malfunctioning devices and for realizing the automation functions of dynamic supervisory control system. The prevailing fault diagnosis approaches in power systems include the expert system, artificial neural network, and fault diagnosis based on optimal theory. This paper discussed the advantages and disadvantages of each of these approaches for diagnosing faults. The paper also proposed a new fault diagnosis and operational processing approach based on a cooperative expert system combined with a multi-agent architecture. For solving complex and correlative faults, the cooperative expert system can overcome the deficiency of a single expert system. It can be used not only for diagnosing complex faults in real time but also in providing timely operational advice. The proposed system has been used successfully in a district power grid in China's Shangdong province for a year. 9 refs., 4 figs.

  20. International, Expert-Based, Consensus Statement Regarding the Management of Acute Diverticulitis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Leary, D Peter; Lynch, Noel; Clancy, Cillian; Winter, Desmond C; Myers, Eddie

    2015-09-01

    This Delphi study provides consensus related to many aspects of acute diverticulitis and identifies other areas in need of research. To generate an international, expert-based, consensus statement to address controversies in the management of acute diverticulitis. This study was conducted using the Delphi technique from April 3 through October 21, 2014. A survey website was used and a panel of acute diverticulitis experts was formed via the snowball method. The top 5 acute diverticulitis experts in 5 international geographic regions were identified based on their number of publications related to acute diverticulitis. The Delphi study used 3 rounds of questions, after which the consensus statement was collated. A consensus statement related to the management of acute diverticulitis. Twenty items were selected for inclusion in the consensus statement following 3 rounds of questioning. A clear definition of uncomplicated and complicated diverticulitis is provided. In uncomplicated diverticulitis, consensus was reached regarding appropriate laboratory and radiological evaluation of patients as well as nonsurgical, surgical, and follow-up strategies. A number of important topics, including antibiotic treatment, failed to reach consensus. In addition, consensus was reached regarding many nonsurgical and surgical treatment strategies in complicated diverticulitis. Controversy continues internationally regarding the management of acute diverticulitis. This study demonstrates that there is more nonconsensus among experts than consensus regarding most issues, even in the same region. It also provides insight into the status quo regarding the treatment of acute diverticulitis and provides important direction for future research.

  1. A development process meta-model for Web based expert systems: The Web engineering point of view

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dokas, I.M.; Alapetite, Alexandre

    2006-01-01

    raised their complexity. Unfortunately, there is so far no clear answer to the question: How may the methods and experience of Web engineering and expert systems be combined and applied in order todevelop effective and successful Web based expert systems? In an attempt to answer this question...... on Web based expert systems – will be presented. The idea behind the presentation of theaccessibility evaluation and its conclusions is to show to Web based expert system developers, who typically have little Web engineering background, that Web engineering issues must be considered when developing Web......Similar to many legacy computer systems, expert systems can be accessed via the Web, forming a set of Web applications known as Web based expert systems. The tough Web competition, the way people and organizations rely on Web applications and theincreasing user requirements for better services have...

  2. Research bias in judgement bias studies : a systematic review of valuation judgement literature

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vincent Gruis; Pim Klamer; Cok Bakker

    2017-01-01

    Valuation judgement bias has been a research topic for several years due to its proclaimed effect on valuation accuracy. However, little is known on the emphasis of literature on judgement bias, with regard to, for instance, research methodologies, research context and robustness of research

  3. Research bias in judgement bias studies : A systematic review of valuation judgement literature

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klamer, Pim; Bakker, C.; Gruis, Vincent

    2017-01-01

    Valuation judgement bias has been a research topic for several years due to its proclaimed effect on valuation accuracy. However, little is known on the emphasis of literature on judgement bias, with regard to, for instance, research methodologies, research context and robustness of research

  4. GIS Supported Landslide Susceptibility Modeling at Regional Scale: An Expert-Based Fuzzy Weighting Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christos Chalkias

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available The main aim of this paper is landslide susceptibility assessment using fuzzy expert-based modeling. Factors that influence landslide occurrence, such as elevation, slope, aspect, lithology, land cover, precipitation and seismicity were considered. Expert-based fuzzy weighting (EFW approach was used to combine these factors for landslide susceptibility mapping (Peloponnese, Greece. This method produced a landslide susceptibility map of the investigated area. The landslides under investigation have more or less same characteristics: lateral based and downslope shallow movement of soils or rocks. The validation of the model reveals, that predicted susceptibility levels are found to be in good agreement with the past landslide occurrences. Hence, the obtained landslide susceptibility map could be acceptable, for landslide hazard prevention and mitigation at regional scale.

  5. Integrating clinicians, knowledge and data: expert-based cooperative analysis in healthcare decision support

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    García-Alonso Carlos

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Decision support in health systems is a highly difficult task, due to the inherent complexity of the process and structures involved. Method This paper introduces a new hybrid methodology Expert-based Cooperative Analysis (EbCA, which incorporates explicit prior expert knowledge in data analysis methods, and elicits implicit or tacit expert knowledge (IK to improve decision support in healthcare systems. EbCA has been applied to two different case studies, showing its usability and versatility: 1 Bench-marking of small mental health areas based on technical efficiency estimated by EbCA-Data Envelopment Analysis (EbCA-DEA, and 2 Case-mix of schizophrenia based on functional dependency using Clustering Based on Rules (ClBR. In both cases comparisons towards classical procedures using qualitative explicit prior knowledge were made. Bayesian predictive validity measures were used for comparison with expert panels results. Overall agreement was tested by Intraclass Correlation Coefficient in case "1" and kappa in both cases. Results EbCA is a new methodology composed by 6 steps:. 1 Data collection and data preparation; 2 acquisition of "Prior Expert Knowledge" (PEK and design of the "Prior Knowledge Base" (PKB; 3 PKB-guided analysis; 4 support-interpretation tools to evaluate results and detect inconsistencies (here Implicit Knowledg -IK- might be elicited; 5 incorporation of elicited IK in PKB and repeat till a satisfactory solution; 6 post-processing results for decision support. EbCA has been useful for incorporating PEK in two different analysis methods (DEA and Clustering, applied respectively to assess technical efficiency of small mental health areas and for case-mix of schizophrenia based on functional dependency. Differences in results obtained with classical approaches were mainly related to the IK which could be elicited by using EbCA and had major implications for the decision making in both cases. Discussion This

  6. Integrating clinicians, knowledge and data: expert-based cooperative analysis in healthcare decision support.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gibert, Karina; García-Alonso, Carlos; Salvador-Carulla, Luis

    2010-09-30

    Decision support in health systems is a highly difficult task, due to the inherent complexity of the process and structures involved. This paper introduces a new hybrid methodology Expert-based Cooperative Analysis (EbCA), which incorporates explicit prior expert knowledge in data analysis methods, and elicits implicit or tacit expert knowledge (IK) to improve decision support in healthcare systems. EbCA has been applied to two different case studies, showing its usability and versatility: 1) Bench-marking of small mental health areas based on technical efficiency estimated by EbCA-Data Envelopment Analysis (EbCA-DEA), and 2) Case-mix of schizophrenia based on functional dependency using Clustering Based on Rules (ClBR). In both cases comparisons towards classical procedures using qualitative explicit prior knowledge were made. Bayesian predictive validity measures were used for comparison with expert panels results. Overall agreement was tested by Intraclass Correlation Coefficient in case "1" and kappa in both cases. EbCA is a new methodology composed by 6 steps:. 1) Data collection and data preparation; 2) acquisition of "Prior Expert Knowledge" (PEK) and design of the "Prior Knowledge Base" (PKB); 3) PKB-guided analysis; 4) support-interpretation tools to evaluate results and detect inconsistencies (here Implicit Knowledg -IK- might be elicited); 5) incorporation of elicited IK in PKB and repeat till a satisfactory solution; 6) post-processing results for decision support. EbCA has been useful for incorporating PEK in two different analysis methods (DEA and Clustering), applied respectively to assess technical efficiency of small mental health areas and for case-mix of schizophrenia based on functional dependency. Differences in results obtained with classical approaches were mainly related to the IK which could be elicited by using EbCA and had major implications for the decision making in both cases. This paper presents EbCA and shows the convenience of

  7. Automated planning target volume generation: an evaluation pitting a computer-based tool against human experts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ketting, Case H.; Austin-Seymour, Mary; Kalet, Ira; Jacky, Jon; Kromhout-Schiro, Sharon; Hummel, Sharon; Unger, Jonathan; Fagan, Lawrence M.; Griffin, Tom

    1997-01-01

    Purpose: Software tools are seeing increased use in three-dimensional treatment planning. However, the development of these tools frequently omits careful evaluation before placing them in clinical use. This study demonstrates the application of a rigorous evaluation methodology using blinded peer review to an automated software tool that produces ICRU-50 planning target volumes (PTVs). Methods and Materials: Seven physicians from three different institutions involved in three-dimensional treatment planning participated in the evaluation. Four physicians drew partial PTVs on nine test cases, consisting of four nasopharynx and five lung primaries. Using the same information provided to the human experts, the computer tool generated PTVs for comparison. The remaining three physicians, designated evaluators, individually reviewed the PTVs for acceptability. To exclude bias, the evaluators were blinded to the source (human or computer) of the PTVs they reviewed. Their scorings of the PTVs were statistically examined to determine if the computer tool performed as well as the human experts. Results: The computer tool was as successful as the human experts in generating PTVs. Failures were primarily attributable to insufficient margins around the clinical target volume and to encroachment upon critical structures. In a qualitative analysis, the human and computer experts displayed similar types and distributions of errors. Conclusions: Rigorous evaluation of computer-based radiotherapy tools requires comparison to current practice and can reveal areas for improvement before the tool enters clinical practice

  8. Optimizing the Timing of Expert Feedback During Simulation-Based Spaced Practice of Endourologic Skills.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Jason Young; McDougall, Elspeth M; Lineberry, Matthew; Tekian, Ara

    2016-08-01

    Provision of expert feedback is widely acknowledged to be an essential component of simulation-based training. However, little is known about the most effective and efficient ways to provide feedback to novices. Optimizing the timing of expert feedback may improve outcomes while reducing resource requirements. The main objective of this study was to determine the impact of providing early versus late expert feedback to novice learners engaged in a flexible ureteroscopy (fURS) training curriculum. Senior medical students were recruited to participate in this study. Each student participated in a comprehensive fURS training curriculum that included 3 deliberate, independent practice sessions. Baseline and postcourse fURS skill was assessed for each student using a standardized fURS test task. Each student was randomized to either an early feedback group (EFG) or late feedback group (LFG). The EFG participants were provided expert feedback immediately after the baseline skill test, whereas LFG participants were given feedback before their final deliberate, independent practice session. Eighteen senior medical students completed the study (9 EFG and 9 LFG participants). There were no discernible demographic differences between the groups at baseline. When controlling for pretest performance, early rather than late feedback was associated with both shorter postcourse time to completion of the task (19.2 vs. 21.5 minutes, P feedback when learning a novel skill. Further study is required.

  9. Moral judgement by the disconnected left and right cerebral hemispheres: a split-brain investigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steckler, Conor M; Hamlin, J Kiley; Miller, Michael B; King, Danielle; Kingstone, Alan

    2017-07-01

    Owing to the hemispheric isolation resulting from a severed corpus callosum, research on split-brain patients can help elucidate the brain regions necessary and sufficient for moral judgement. Notably, typically developing adults heavily weight the intentions underlying others' moral actions, placing greater importance on valenced intentions versus outcomes when assigning praise and blame. Prioritization of intent in moral judgements may depend on neural activity in the right hemisphere's temporoparietal junction, an area implicated in reasoning about mental states. To date, split-brain research has found that the right hemisphere is necessary for intent-based moral judgement. When testing the left hemisphere using linguistically based moral vignettes, split-brain patients evaluate actions based on outcomes, not intentions. Because the right hemisphere has limited language ability relative to the left, and morality paradigms to date have involved significant linguistic demands, it is currently unknown whether the right hemisphere alone generates intent-based judgements. Here we use nonlinguistic morality plays with split-brain patient J.W. to examine the moral judgements of the disconnected right hemisphere, demonstrating a clear focus on intent. This finding indicates that the right hemisphere is not only necessary but also sufficient for intent-based moral judgement, advancing research into the neural systems supporting the moral sense.

  10. Some comments on the substituted judgement standard.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Egonsson, Dan

    2010-02-01

    On a traditional interpretation of the substituted judgement standard (SJS) a person who makes treatment decisions on behalf of a non-competent patient (e.g. concerning euthanasia) ought to decide as the patient would have decided had she been competent. I propose an alternative interpretation of SJS in which the surrogate is required to infer what the patient actually thought about these end-of-life decisions. In clarifying SJS it is also important to differentiate the patient's consent and preference. If SJS is part of an autonomy ideal of the sort found in Kantian ethics, consent seems more important than preference. From a utilitarian perspective a preference-based reading of SJS seems natural. I argue that the justification of SJS within a utilitarian framework will boil down to the question whether a non-competent patient can be said to have any surviving preferences. If we give a virtue-ethical justification of SJS the relative importance of consent and preferences depends on which virtue one stresses--respect or care. I argue that SJS might be an independent normative method for extending the patient's autonomy, both from a Kantian and a virtue ethical perspective.

  11. The PWI [plutonium waste incinerator] expert system: Real time, PC-based process analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brown, K.G.; Smith, F.G.

    1987-01-01

    A real time, microcomputer-based expert system is being developed for a prototype plutonium waste incinerator (PWI) process at Du Pont's Savannah River Laboratory. The expert system will diagnose instrumentation problems, assist operator training, serve as a repository for engineering knowledge about the process, and provide continuous operation and performance information. A set of necessary operational criteria was developed from process and engineering constraints; it was used to define hardware and software needs. The most important criterion is operating speed because the analysis operates in real time. TURBO PROLOG by Borland International was selected. The analysis system is divided into three sections: the user-system interface, the inference engine and rule base, and the files representing the blackboard information center

  12. Clarification of Safe Delivery by Iranian Experts Based on Clinical Governance: A Qualitative Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Forozun Olfati

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Objective:To clarify the principles of a safe delivery based on Clinical Governance Criteria, as recommended by the pertinent experts.Materials and methods:The current study was part of a qualitative research conducted by content analysis method in 2013 and purposive sampling, performing 24 in-depth interviews based on semi-structured questions and analyzed using thematic content analysis. The participants in this research included midwives, obstetricians, managers, and hospital doctors. The data were under continuous consideration and comparative analysis in order to achieve data saturation.Results:The main concepts derived from interpretations of the pertinent experts include: Patient & Public involvement; Risk Management; Education; Clinical efficiency; Clinical audit; Personnel & Management.Conclusion:In a safe delivery, there is a vicious cycle of causes the elimination of which is only possible through benchmarking patterns that attend to most aspects of a safe delivery.Changes to services require utilization of appropriate change management strategies.

  13. Clinical judgement and the medical profession

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kienle, Gunver S; Kiene, Helmut

    2011-01-01

    Objectives Clinical judgment is a central element of the medical profession, essential for the performance of the doctor, and potentially generating information also for other clinicians and for scientists and health care managers. The recently renewed interest in clinical judgement is primarily engaged with its role in communication, diagnosis and decision making. Beyond this issue, the present article highlights the interrelations between clinical judgement, therapy assessment and medical professionalism. Methods Literature review and theory development. Results The article presents different methodological approaches to causality assessment in clinical studies and in clinical judgement, and offers criteria for clinical single case causality. The article outlines models of medical professionalism such as technical rationality and practice epistemology, and characterizes features of professional expertise such as tacit knowledge, reflection in action, and gestalt cognition. Conclusions Consequences of a methodological and logistical advancement of clinical judgment are discussed, both in regard to medical progress and to the renewel of the cognitive basis of the medical profession. PMID:20973873

  14. Study on judgement baseline for XRF on-line detection system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Quanshi; Bao Min

    2000-01-01

    Based on the Signal Detection Theory (SDT) and the statistics principle, the choice method of judgement baseline was studied. According to the characteristics of X-ray Fluorescence (XRF) spectra in the on-line detection system, the calculation methods for the characteristic peak of the element-tagged and background were carried out. The complex judgement baseline were rationally selected after a lot of experiments and analyzing. The operating results of near one year show that it is available

  15. Expert consensus v. evidence-based approaches in the revision of the DSM.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kendler, K S; Solomon, M

    2016-08-01

    The development of DSM-III through DSM-5 has relied heavily on expert consensus. In this essay, we provide an historical and critical perspective on this process. Over the last 40 years, medicine has struggled to find appropriate methods for summarizing research results and making clinical recommendations. When such recommendations are issued by authorized organizations, they can have widespread influence (i.e. DSM-III and its successors). In the 1970s, expert consensus conferences, led by the NIH, reviewed research about controversial medical issues and successfully disseminated results. However, these consensus conferences struggled with aggregating the complex available evidence. In the 1990s, the rise of evidence-based medicine cast doubt on the reliability of expert consensus. Since then, medicine has increasingly relied on systematic reviews, as developed by the evidence-based medicine movement, and advocated for their early incorporation in expert consensus efforts. With the partial exception of DSM-IV, such systematic evidence-based reviews have not been consistently integrated into the development of the DSMs, leaving their development out of step with the larger medical field. Like the recommendations made for the NIH consensus conferences, we argue that the DSM process should be modified to require systematic evidence-based reviews before Work Groups make their assessments. Our suggestions - which would require leadership and additional resources to set standards for appropriate evidence hierarchies, carry out systematic reviews, and upgrade the group process - should improve the objectivity of the DSM, increase the validity of its results, and improve the reception of any changes in nosology.

  16. Developing a PC-based expert system for fault analysis of reactor instruments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Diwakar, M.P.; Rathod, N.C.; Bairi, B.R.; Darbhe, M.D.; Joglekar, S.S.

    1989-01-01

    This paper describes the development of an expert system for fault analysis of electronic instruments in the CIRUS nuclear reactor. The system was developed in Prolog on an IBM PC-XT compatible computer. A 'model-based' approach (Button et al, 1986) was adopted combining 'frames' and 'rules' to provide flexible control over the inferencing mechanisms. Frames represent the domain-objects as well as the inter-object relationships. They include 'demons' or 'active values' for triggering actions. Rules, along with frames, are used for fault analysis. The rules can be activated either in a data-driven or a goal-driven manner. The use of frames makes rule management easier. It is felt that developing in-house shell proved advantageous, compared to using commercially available shells. Choosing the model-based approach was efficient compared to a production system architecture. Therefore, the use of hybrid representations for diagnostic applications is advocated. Based on the experience, some general recommendations for developing such systems are presented. The expert system helps novice operators to understand the process of diagnosis and achieve a significant required level of competence. The system may not achieve the required level of proficiency by itself, but it can be used to train operators to become experts. (author). 12 refs

  17. An approach to build a knowledge base for reactor accident diagnostic expert system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoshida, K.; Fujii, M.; Fujiki, K.; Yokobayashi, M.; Kohsaka, A.; Aoyagi, T.; Hirota, Y.

    1987-01-01

    In the development of a rule based expert system, one of the key issues is how to acquire knowledge and to build knowledge base (KB). On building the KB of DISKET, which is an expert system for nuclear reactor accident diagnosis developed in JAERI, several problems have been experienced as follows. To write rules is a time consuming task, and it is difficult to keep the objectivity and consistency of rules as the number of rules increase. Further, certainty factors (CFs) must be often determined according to engineering judgment, i.e., empirically or intuitively. A systematic approach was attempted to handle these difficulties and to build an objective KB efficiently. The approach described in this paper is based on the concept that a prototype KB, colloquially speaking an initial guess, should first be generated in a systematic way and then is to be modified and/or improved by human experts for practical use. Statistical methods, principally Factor Analysis, were used as the systematic way to build a prototype KB for the DISKET using a PWR plant simulator data. The source information is a number of data obtained from the simulation of transients, such as the status of components and annunciator etc., and major process parameters like pressures, temperatures and so on

  18. A methodology for uncertainty quantification in quantitative technology valuation based on expert elicitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akram, Muhammad Farooq Bin

    uncertainty propagation. Non-linear behavior in technology interactions is captured through expert elicitation based technology synergy matrices (TSM). Proposed TSMs increase the fidelity of current technology forecasting methods by including higher order technology interactions. A test case for quantification of epistemic uncertainty on a large scale problem of combined cycle power generation system was selected. A detailed multidisciplinary modeling and simulation environment was adopted for this problem. Results have shown that evidence theory based technique provides more insight on the uncertainties arising from incomplete information or lack of knowledge as compared to deterministic or probability theory methods. Margin analysis was also carried out for both the techniques. A detailed description of TSMs and their usage in conjunction with technology impact matrices and technology compatibility matrices is discussed. Various combination methods are also proposed for higher order interactions, which can be applied according to the expert opinion or historical data. The introduction of technology synergy matrix enabled capturing the higher order technology interactions, and improvement in predicted system performance.

  19. Cogent Confabulation based Expert System for Segmentation and Classification of Natural Landscape Images

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    BRAOVIC, M.

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Ever since there has been an increase in the number of automatic wildfire monitoring and surveillance systems in the last few years, natural landscape images have been of great importance. In this paper we propose an expert system for fast segmentation and classification of regions on natural landscape images that is suitable for real-time applications. We focus primarily on Mediterranean landscape images since the Mediterranean area and areas with similar climate are the ones most associated with high wildfire risk. The proposed expert system is based on cogent confabulation theory and knowledge bases that contain information about local and global features, optimal color spaces suitable for classification of certain regions, and context of each class. The obtained results indicate that the proposed expert system significantly outperforms well-known classifiers that it was compared against in both accuracy and speed, and that it is effective and efficient for real-time applications. Additionally, we present a FESB MLID dataset on which we conducted our research and that we made publicly available.

  20. A Knowledge-Based Expert System Using MFM Model for Operator Supporting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mo, Kun; Seong, Poong Hyun

    2005-01-01

    In this paper, a knowledge-based expert system using MFM (Multi-level Flow Modeling) is proposed for enhancing the operators' ability to cope with various situations in nuclear power plant. There are many complicated situations, in which regular and suitable operations should be done by operators accordingly. In order to help the operator to assess the situations promptly and accurately, and to regulate their operations according to these situations. it is necessary to develop an expert systems to help the operator for the fault diagnosis, alarm analysis, and operation results estimation for each operation. Many kinds of operator supporting systems focusing on different functions have been developed. Most of them used various methodologies for single diagnosis function or operation permission function. The proposed system integrated functions of fault diagnosis, alarm analysis and operation results estimation by the MFM basic algorithm for the operator supporting

  1. Expert System Development on On-line Measurement of Sewage Treatment Based Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jianjun QIN

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available This article puts forward a solution in which an instrument on-line automatic measurement and expert system process are optimized according to the complexity and great process dynamics of sewage treatment process. Firstly modeling has been set up with configuration sewage treatment process in which the process has been integrated into the computer software environment. Secondly certain number of water quality automatic monitoring instruments and sensor probes are set in the reaction tanks according to the needs of process changes and management. The data information acquired can be displayed and recorded at the real time. A human-machine integration expert system featuring computer automation management is developed for the base by one-off method thus to realize the intelligent and unmanned management. The advantages brought about from it can fill up the inexperience of the on-site management personnel and solve the contradiction between the water quality dynamics and difficulty in the process adjustment.

  2. A simulation-based expert system for nuclear power plant diagnostics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hassberger, J.A.; Lee, J.C.

    1989-01-01

    An expert system for diagnosing operational transients in a nuclear power plant is discussed. Hypothesis and test is used as the problem-solving strategy with hypotheses generated by an expert system that monitors the plant for patterns of data symptomatic of known failure modes. Fuzzy logic is employed as the inferencing mechanism with two complementary implication schemes to handle scenarios involving competing failures. Hypothesis testing is performed. An artificial intelligence framework based on a critical functions approach is used to deal with the complexity of a nuclear plant. A prototype system for diagnosing transients in the reactor coolant system of a pressurized water reactor has been developed to test the algorithms described here. Results are presented for the diagnosis of data from the Three Mile Island Unit 2 loss-of-feedwater/small-break loss-of-collant accident

  3. Larger right posterior parietal volume in action video game experts: a behavioral and voxel-based morphometry (VBM study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Satoshi Tanaka

    Full Text Available Recent studies suggest that action video game players exhibit superior performance in visuospatial cognitive tasks compared with non-game players. However, the neural basis underlying this visuospatial cognitive performance advantage remains largely unknown. The present human behavioral and imaging study compared gray matter volume in action video game experts and non-experts using structural magnetic resonance imaging and voxel-based morphometry analysis. The results revealed significantly larger gray matter volume in the right posterior parietal cortex in experts compared with non-experts. Furthermore, the larger gray matter volume in the right posterior parietal cortex significantly correlated with individual performance in a visual working memory task in experts. These results suggest that differences in brain structure may be linked to extensive video game play, leading to superior visuospatial cognitive performance in action video game experts.

  4. Which Dimensions of Patient-Centeredness Matter? - Results of a Web-Based Expert Delphi Survey.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jördis M Zill

    Full Text Available Present models and definitions of patient-centeredness revealed a lack of conceptual clarity. Based on a prior systematic literature review, we developed an integrative model with 15 dimensions of patient-centeredness. The aims of this study were to 1 validate, and 2 prioritize these dimensions.A two-round web-based Delphi study was conducted. 297 international experts were invited to participate. In round one they were asked to 1 give an individual rating on a nine-point-scale on relevance and clarity of the dimensions, 2 add missing dimensions, and 3 prioritize the dimensions. In round two, experts received feedback about the results of round one and were asked to reflect and re-rate their own results. The cut-off for the validation of a dimension was a median < 7 on one of the criteria.105 experts participated in round one and 71 in round two. In round one, one new dimension was suggested and included for discussion in round two. In round two, this dimension did not reach sufficient ratings to be included in the model. Eleven dimensions reached a median ≥ 7 on both criteria (relevance and clarity. Four dimensions had a median < 7 on one or both criteria. The five dimensions rated as most important were: patient as a unique person, patient involvement in care, patient information, clinician-patient communication and patient empowerment.11 out of the 15 dimensions have been validated through experts' ratings. Further research on the four dimensions that received insufficient ratings is recommended. The priority order of the dimensions can help researchers and clinicians to focus on the most important dimensions of patient-centeredness. Overall, the model provides a useful framework that can be used in the development of measures, interventions, and medical education curricula, as well as the adoption of a new perspective in health policy.

  5. A Belief Rule Based Expert System to Assess Mental Disorder under Uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hossain, Mohammad Shahadat; Afif Monrat, Ahmed; Hasan, Mamun

    2016-01-01

    to ignorance, incompleteness, and randomness. So, a belief rule-based expert system (BRBES) has been designed and developed with the capability of handling the uncertainties mentioned. Evidential reasoning works as the inference engine and the belief rule base as the knowledge representation schema......Mental disorder is a change of mental or behavioral pattern that causes sufferings and impairs the ability to function in ordinary life. In psychopathology, the assessment methods of mental disorder contain various types of uncertainties associated with signs and symptoms. This study identifies...

  6. Learning from the Pros: Influence of Web-Based Expert Commentary on Vicarious Learning about Financial Markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ford, Matthew W.; Kent, Daniel W.; Devoto, Steven

    2007-01-01

    Web-based financial commentary, in which experts routinely express market-related thought processes, is proposed as a means for college students to learn vicariously about financial markets. Undergraduate business school students from a regional university were exposed to expert market commentary from a single financial Web site for a 6-week…

  7. A Computer-Based, Interactive Videodisc Job Aid and Expert System for Electron Beam Lithography Integration and Diagnostic Procedures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stevenson, Kimberly

    This master's thesis describes the development of an expert system and interactive videodisc computer-based instructional job aid used for assisting in the integration of electron beam lithography devices. Comparable to all comprehensive training, expert system and job aid development require a criterion-referenced systems approach treatment to…

  8. A method of knowledge base verification for nuclear power plant expert systems using extended Petri Nets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kwon, I. W.; Seong, P. H.

    1996-01-01

    The adoption of expert systems mainly as operator supporting systems is becoming increasingly popular as the control algorithms of system become more and more sophisticated and complicated. The verification phase of knowledge base is an important part for developing reliable expert systems, especially in nuclear industry. Although several strategies or tools have been developed to perform potential error checking, they often neglect the reliability of verification methods. Because a Petri net provides a uniform mathematical formalization of knowledge base, it has been employed for knowledge base verification. In this work, we devise and suggest an automated tool, called COKEP(Checker of Knowledge base using Extended Petri net), for detecting incorrectness, inconsistency, and incompleteness in a knowledge base. The scope of the verification problem is expended to chained errors, unlike previous studies that assume error incidence to be limited to rule pairs only. In addition, we consider certainty factor in checking, because most of knowledge bases have certainly factors. 8 refs,. 2 figs,. 4 tabs. (author)

  9. Knowledge base expert system control of spatial xenon oscillations in pressurized water reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alten, S.

    1992-01-01

    Nuclear reactor operators are required to pay special attention to spatial xenon oscillations during the load-follow operation of pressurized water reactors. They are expected to observe the axial offset of the core, and to estimate the correct time and amount of necessary control action based on heuristic rules given in axial xenon oscillations are knowledge intensive, and heuristic in nature. An expert system, ACES (Axial offset Control using Expert Systems) is developed to implement a heuristic constant axial offset control procedure to aid reactor operators in increasing the plant reliability by reducing the human error component of the failure probability. ACES is written in a production system language, OPS5, based on the forward chaining algorithm. It samples reactor data with a certain time interval in terms of measurable parameters, such as the power, period, and the axial offset of the core. It then processes the core status utilizing a set of equations which are used in a back of the envelope calculations by domain experts. Heuristic rules of ACES identify the control variable to be used among the full and part length control rods and boron concentration, while a knowledge base is used to determine the amount of control. ACES is designed as a set of generic rules to avoid reducing the system into a set of patterns. Instead ACES evaluates the system, determines the necessary corrective actions in terms of reactivity insertion, and provides this reactivity insertion using the control variables. The amount of control action is determined using a knowledge base which consists of the differential rod worth curves, and the boron reactivity worth of a given reactor. Having the reactor dependent parameters in its knowledge base, ACES is applicable to an arbitrary reactor for axial offset control purposes

  10. IDEA system - a new computer-based expert system for incorporation monitoring

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Doerfel, H.

    2007-01-01

    Recently, at the Karlsruhe Research Centre, a computer-based expert system, Internal Dose Equivalent Assessment System (IDEA System), has been developed for assisting dosimetrists in applying the relevant recommendations and guidelines for internal dosimetry. The expert system gives guidance to the user with respect to: (a) planning of monitoring, (b) performing routine and special monitoring, and (c) evaluation of primary monitoring results. The evaluation is done according to the IDEA System guidelines (Doerfel, H. et al., General guidelines for the estimation of committed effective dose from incorporation monitoring data. Research Report FZKA 7243, Research Center Karlsruhe, Karlsruhe (2006). ISSN 0947-8260.) in a three-stage procedure according to the expected level of exposure. At the first level the evaluation is performed with default or site-specific parameter values, at the second level case-specific parameter values are applied and at the third level a special evaluation is performed with individual adjustment of model parameter values. With these well-defined procedures the expert system follows the aim, in which all recommendations and guidelines are applied properly and the results in terms of committed effective and organ doses are close to the best estimate. (author)

  11. IDEA-system - a new computer based expert system for incorporation monitoring

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Doerfel, H.

    2005-01-01

    Full text: There is an increasing number of national and international recommendations and guidelines for incorporation monitoring (ICRP Publications, IAEA Safety Reports, ISO Standards, etc.). These recommendations cover different phases of incorporation monitoring and they provide general requirements for the measuring techniques, the monitoring procedures and for the procedures to evaluate intakes and doses from the monitoring results. There is, however, still a strong need for giving guidance to the dosimetrists on how to apply all the regulations properly. Thus, the EU project IDEAS was launched in order to provide general guidelines for the assessment of internal dose from incorporation monitoring data. These guidelines have recently been discussed in a virtual workshop on the internet (www.ideas-workshop.de) and they are being considered by ICRP for possible adoption in the near future. Recently, in the Karlsruhe Research Centre, a computer-based expert system has been developed for assisting dosimetrists in applying the relevant recommendations and guidelines for incorporation monitoring and internal dosimetry. The expert system gives guidance to the user with respect to: planning of monitoring (estimation of potential exposures, decision on the requirements of monitoring, definition of optimum measuring techniques and monitoring intervals); performing routine and special monitoring and evaluation of primary monitoring results. The evaluation of primary monitoring results is done according to the IDEAS guidelines in a threestage procedure according to the expected level of exposure (E = committed effective dose): standard evaluation with default or site specific parameter values (E 6 mSv). With these well-defined procedures the expert system follows the aim, that all recommendations and guidelines are applied properly and thus: internal exposures of more than 1 mSv are very likely to be detected in all situations; the results in terms of committed effective

  12. A knowledge-base verification of NPP expert systems using extended Petri nets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kwon, Il Won; Seong, Poong Hyun

    1995-01-01

    The verification phase of knowledge base is an important part for developing reliable expert systems, especially in nuclear industry. Although several strategies or tools have been developed to perform potential error checking, they often neglect the reliability of verification methods. Because a Petri net provides a uniform mathematical formalization of knowledge base, it has been employed for knowledge base verification. In this work, we devise and suggest an automated tool, called COKEP (Checker Of Knowledge base using Extended Petri net), for detecting incorrectness, inconsistency, and incompleteness in a knowledge base. The scope of the verification problem is expanded to chained errors, unlike previous studies that assumed error incidence to be limited to rule pairs only. In addition, we consider certainty factor in checking, because most of knowledge bases have certainty factors

  13. Implementasi Rule Based Expert Systems untuk Realtime Monitoring Penyelesaian Perkara Pidana Menggunakan Teknologi Radio Frequency Identification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mar Fuah

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available One of the problems in the criminal case completions is that the difficulty of making decision to estimate when the settlement of the case file will be fulfilled. It is caused by the number of case files handled and detention time changing. Therefore, the fast and accurate information is needed. The research aims to develop a monitoring system tracking and tracking of scheduling rules using Rule Based Expert Systems method with 17 rules, and supported by Radio Frequency Identification technology (RFID in the form of computer applications. Based on the output of the system, an analysis is performed in the criminal case settlement process with a set of IF-THEN rules. The RFID reader read the data of case files through radio wave signals emitted by the antenna toward active-Tag attached in the criminal case file. The system is designed to monitor the tracking and tracing of RFID-based scheduling rules in realtime way that was built in the form of computer application in accordance with the system design. This study results in no failure in reading active tags by the RFID reader to detect criminal case files that had been examined. There were many case files handled in three different location, they were the constabulary, prosecutor, and judges of district court and RFID was able to identify them simultaneously. So, RFID supports the implementation of Rule Based Expert Systems very much for realtime monitoring in criminal case accomplishment.

  14. Identifying influenza-like illness presentation from unstructured general practice clinical narrative using a text classifier rule-based expert system versus a clinical expert.

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacRae, Jayden; Love, Tom; Baker, Michael G; Dowell, Anthony; Carnachan, Matthew; Stubbe, Maria; McBain, Lynn

    2015-10-06

    We designed and validated a rule-based expert system to identify influenza like illness (ILI) from routinely recorded general practice clinical narrative to aid a larger retrospective research study into the impact of the 2009 influenza pandemic in New Zealand. Rules were assessed using pattern matching heuristics on routine clinical narrative. The system was trained using data from 623 clinical encounters and validated using a clinical expert as a gold standard against a mutually exclusive set of 901 records. We calculated a 98.2 % specificity and 90.2 % sensitivity across an ILI incidence of 12.4 % measured against clinical expert classification. Peak problem list identification of ILI by clinical coding in any month was 9.2 % of all detected ILI presentations. Our system addressed an unusual problem domain for clinical narrative classification; using notational, unstructured, clinician entered information in a community care setting. It performed well compared with other approaches and domains. It has potential applications in real-time surveillance of disease, and in assisted problem list coding for clinicians. Our system identified ILI presentation with sufficient accuracy for use at a population level in the wider research study. The peak coding of 9.2 % illustrated the need for automated coding of unstructured narrative in our study.

  15. An expert system-based aid for analysis of Emergency Operating Procedures in NPPs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jakubowski, Z.; Beraha, D.

    1996-01-01

    Emergency Operating Procedures (EOPs) generally and an accident management (AM) particularly play a significant part in the safety philosophy on NPPs since many years. A better methodology for development and validation of EOPs is desired. A prototype of an Emergency Operating Procedures Analysis System (EOPAS), which has been developed at GRS, is presented in the paper. The hardware configuration and software organisation of the system is briefly reviewed. The main components of the system such as the knowledge base of an expert system and the engineering simulator are described. (author)

  16. Information systems development of analysis company financial state based on the expert-statistical approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. N. Ivliev

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The work is devoted to methods of analysis the company financial condition, including aggregated ratings. It is proposed to use the generalized solvency and liquidity indicator and the capital structure composite index. Mathematically, the generalized index is a sum of variables-characteristics and weighting factors characterizing the relative importance of individual characteristics composition. It is offered to select the significant features from a set of standard financial ratios, calculated according to enterprises balance sheets. To obtain the weighting factors values it is proposed to use one of the expert statistical approaches, the analytic hierarchy process. The method is as follows: we choose the most important characteristic and after the experts determine the degree of preference for the main feature based on the linguistic scale. Further, matrix of pairwise comparisons based on the assigned ranks is compiled, which characterizes the relative importance of attributes. The required coefficients are determined as elements of a vector of priorities, which is the first vector of the matrix of paired comparisons. The paper proposes a mechanism for finding the fields for rating numbers analysis. In addition, the paper proposes a method for the statistical evaluation of the balance sheets of various companies by calculating the mutual correlation matrices. Based on the considered mathematical methods to determine quantitative characteristics of technical objects financial and economic activities, was developed algorithms, information and software allowing to realize of different systems economic analysis.

  17. Probabilistic safety assessment based expert systems in support of dynamic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Varde, P.V.; Sharma, U.L.; Marik, S.K.; Raina, V.K.; Tikku, A.C.

    2006-01-01

    Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) studies are being performed, world over as part of integrated risk assessment for Nuclear Power Plants and in many cases PSA insight is utilized in support of decision making. Though the modern plants are built with inherent safety provisions, particularly to reduce the supervisory requirements during initial period into the accident, it is always desired to develop an efficient user friendly real-time operator advisory system for handling of plant transients/emergencies which would be of immense benefit for the enhancement of operational safety of the plant. This paper discusses an integrated approach for the development of operator support system. In this approach, PSA methodology and the insight obtained from PSA has been utilized for development of knowledge based or rule based experts system. While Artificial Neural Network (ANN) approach has been employed for transient identification, rule-base expert system shell environment was used for the development of diagnostic module in this system. Attempt has been made to demonstrate that this approach offers an efficient framework for addressing requirements related to handling of real-time/dynamic scenario. (author)

  18. The diagnose of oil palm disease using Naive Bayes Method based on Expert System Technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nababan, Marlince; Laia, Yonata; Sitanggang, Delima; Sihombing, Oloan; Indra, Evta; Siregar, Saut; Purba, Windania; Mancur, Roy

    2018-04-01

    Expert system is dealt with system that used computer-based human intelligence to overcome particular problem which is commonly conducted by an expert. Frequent problem faced by the farmers of oil palm is the difficulty in defining the type of plant disease. As a result, the delay treatment of plant disease brings out the declining of farm products. An application system is needed to deal with the obstacles and diagnosing the type of oil palm plant disease. The researcher designed an intelligence-based application with input-output plan which is able to diagnose the type of oil palm plant disease by applying naive bayes method. Based on the research result by conducting bayes method with recognized symptom, diagnose of oil palm plant disease could be accomplished. The data of symptoms found are leaves turned yellow 0.4, dead leaves 0.4, black and brown color among the veins of leaves 0.5, young and old fruit with whole space 0.4, and decay of bunches is 0.3. The roots are tender in the amount of 0.5, and damage on sheath is 0.3. Through the chosen symptoms as mentioned above, the value of bayes is 80% with the type of disease is rotten bunch.

  19. Development of a QFD-based expert system for CNC turning centre selection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prasad, Kanika; Chakraborty, Shankar

    2015-12-01

    Computer numerical control (CNC) machine tools are automated devices capable of generating complicated and intricate product shapes in shorter time. Selection of the best CNC machine tool is a critical, complex and time-consuming task due to availability of a wide range of alternatives and conflicting nature of several evaluation criteria. Although, the past researchers had attempted to select the appropriate machining centres using different knowledge-based systems, mathematical models and multi-criteria decision-making methods, none of those approaches has given due importance to the voice of customers. The aforesaid limitation can be overcome using quality function deployment (QFD) technique, which is a systematic approach for integrating customers' needs and designing the product to meet those needs first time and every time. In this paper, the adopted QFD-based methodology helps in selecting CNC turning centres for a manufacturing organization, providing due importance to the voice of customers to meet their requirements. An expert system based on QFD technique is developed in Visual BASIC 6.0 to automate the CNC turning centre selection procedure for different production plans. Three illustrative examples are demonstrated to explain the real-time applicability of the developed expert system.

  20. Simulation-based expert system for nuclear reactor control and diagnostics. Progress report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, J.C.; Martin, W.R.

    1986-01-01

    This research concerns the development of artificial intelligence (AI) techniques suitable for application to the diagnostics and control of nuclear power plant systems. The overall objective of the current effort is to build a prototype simulation-based expert system for diagnosing accidents in nuclear reactors. The system is being designed to analyze plant data heuristically using fuzzy logic to form a set of hypotheses about a particular transient. Hypothesis testing, fault magnitude estimation and transient analysis is performed using simulation programs to model plant behavior. An adaptive learning technique has been developed for achieving accurate simulations of plant dynamics using low-order physical models of plant components. The results of the diagnostics and simulation analysis of the plant transient are to be analyzed by an expert system for final diagnoses and control guidance. To date, significant progress has been made toward achieving the primary goals of this project. Based on a critical safety functions approach, an overall design for the nuclear plant expert system has been developed. The methodology for performing diagnostic reasoning on plant signals has been developed and the algorithms implemented and tested. A methodology for utilizing the information contained in the physical models of plant components has also been developed. This work included the derivation of a unique Kalman filtering algorithm for using power plant data to systematically improve on-line simulations through the judicious adjustment of key model parameters. A few simulation models of key plant components have been developed and implemented to demonstrate the method on a realistic accident scenario. The chosen transient is a loss of feed flow exasperated by a stuck open relief valve, similar to the initiating event of the Three Mile Island Unit 2 accident in 1979

  1. When are Domestic Anti-Avoidance Rules in Breach of Primary and Secondary EU Law? – Comments Based on Recent Judgements from the European Court of Justice

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bundgaard, Jakob; Schmidt, Peter Koerver; Tell, Michael

    2018-01-01

    Based on the ECJ decisions in Eqiom SAS (Case C-6/16), as well as Joined Cases Deister Holding (Case C-504/16) and Juhler Holding (Case C-613/16), the authors discuss the interplay between Member States’ domestic antiavoidance rules, the Parent-Subsidiary Directive and the basic freedoms. In addi......Based on the ECJ decisions in Eqiom SAS (Case C-6/16), as well as Joined Cases Deister Holding (Case C-504/16) and Juhler Holding (Case C-613/16), the authors discuss the interplay between Member States’ domestic antiavoidance rules, the Parent-Subsidiary Directive and the basic freedoms....... In addition, the article contains a discussion on the degree to which the EU prohibition of abuse can be invoked even in the absence of national anti-avoidance measures....

  2. Use of a FORTH-based PROLOG for real-time expert systems. 1: Spacelab life sciences experiment application

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paloski, William H.; Odette, Louis L.; Krever, Alfred J.; West, Allison K.

    1987-01-01

    A real-time expert system is being developed to serve as the astronaut interface for a series of Spacelab vestibular experiments. This expert system is written in a version of Prolog that is itself written in Forth. The Prolog contains a predicate that can be used to execute Forth definitions; thus, the Forth becomes an embedded real-time operating system within the Prolog programming environment. The expert system consists of a data base containing detailed operational instructions for each experiment, a rule base containing Prolog clauses used to determine the next step in an experiment sequence, and a procedure base containing Prolog goals formed from real-time routines coded in Forth. In this paper, we demonstrate and describe the techniques and considerations used to develop this real-time expert system, and we conclude that Forth-based Prolog provides a viable implementation vehicle for this and similar applications.

  3. A diagnostic expert system for NPP based on hybrid knowledge approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, Joon On; Chang, Soon Heung

    1989-01-01

    This paper describes a diagnostic expert system, HYPOSS (Hybrid Knowledge Based Plant Operation Supporting System), which has been developed to support operators' decision making during the transients of nuclear power plant. HYPOSS adopts the hybrid knowledge approach which combines shallow and deep knowledge to couple the merits of both approaches. In HYPOSS, four types of knowledge are used according to the steps of diagnosis procedure: structural, functional, behavioral and heuristic knowledge. The structural and functional knowledge is represented by three fundamental primitives and five types of functions respectively. The behavioral knowledge is represented using constraints. The inference procedure is based on the human problem solving behavior modeled in HYPOSS. For the validation of HYPOSS, several tests have been performed based on the data produced by a plant simulator. The results of validation studies showed a good applicability of HYPOSS to the anomaly diagnosis of nuclear power plant

  4. Automated Individual Prescription of Exercise with an XML-based Expert System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jang, S; Park, S R; Jang, Y; Park, J; Yoon, Y; Park, S

    2005-01-01

    Continuously motivating people to exercise regularly is more important than finding a barriers such as lack of time, cost of equipment or gym membership, lack of nearby facilities and poor weather or night-time lighting. Our proposed system presents practicable methods of motivation through a web-based exercise prescription service. Users are instructed to exercise according to their physical ability by means of an automated individual prescription of exercise checked and approved by a personal trainer or exercise specialist after being tested with the HIMS, fitness assessment system. Furthermore, utilizing BIOFIT exercise prescriptions scheduled by an expert system can help users exercise systematically. Automated individual prescriptions are built in XML based documents because the data needs to be flexible, expansible and convertible structures to process diverse exercise templates. Web-based exercise prescription service makes users stay interested in exercise even if they live in many different environments.

  5. An American knowledge base in England - Alternate implementations of an expert system flight status monitor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butler, G. F.; Graves, A. T.; Disbrow, J. D.; Duke, E. L.

    1989-01-01

    A joint activity between the Dryden Flight Research Facility of the NASA Ames Research Center (Ames-Dryden) and the Royal Aerospace Establishment (RAE) on knowledge-based systems has been agreed. Under the agreement, a flight status monitor knowledge base developed at Ames-Dryden has been implemented using the real-time AI (artificial intelligence) toolkit MUSE, which was developed in the UK. Here, the background to the cooperation is described and the details of the flight status monitor and a prototype MUSE implementation are presented. It is noted that the capabilities of the expert-system flight status monitor to monitor data downlinked from the flight test aircraft and to generate information on the state and health of the system for the test engineers provides increased safety during flight testing of new systems. Furthermore, the expert-system flight status monitor provides the systems engineers with ready access to the large amount of information required to describe a complex aircraft system.

  6. A study on development of a rule based expert system for steam generator life extension

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Jin Kyun

    1994-02-01

    The need of predicting the integrity of the steam generator(SG) tubes and environmental conditions that affect their integrity is growing to secure nuclear power plant(NPP) safety and enhance plant availability. To achieve their objectives it is important to diagnose the integrity of the SG tubes. An expert system called FEMODES(failure mode diagnosis expert system) has been developed for diagnosis of such tube degradation phenomena as denting, intergranular attack(IGA) and stress corrosion cracking(SCC) in the secondary side of the SG. It is possible with use of FEMODES to estimate possibilities of SG tube degradation and diagnosis environmental conditions that influence such tube degradation. The method of certainty factor theory(CFT) and the rule based backward reasoning inference strategy are used to develop FEMODES. The information required for diagnosis is acquired from SG tube degradation experiences of two local reference plants, some limited oversea plants and technical reports/research papers about such tube degradation. Overall results estimated with use of FEMODES are in reasonable agreement with actual SG tube degradation. Some discrepancy observed in several estimated values of SG tube degradation appears to be due to insufficient heuristic knowledge for knowledge data base of FEMODES

  7. Assessing socioeconomic vulnerability to dengue fever in Cali, Colombia: statistical vs expert-based modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hagenlocher, Michael; Delmelle, Eric; Casas, Irene; Kienberger, Stefan

    2013-08-14

    As a result of changes in climatic conditions and greater resistance to insecticides, many regions across the globe, including Colombia, have been facing a resurgence of vector-borne diseases, and dengue fever in particular. Timely information on both (1) the spatial distribution of the disease, and (2) prevailing vulnerabilities of the population are needed to adequately plan targeted preventive intervention. We propose a methodology for the spatial assessment of current socioeconomic vulnerabilities to dengue fever in Cali, a tropical urban environment of Colombia. Based on a set of socioeconomic and demographic indicators derived from census data and ancillary geospatial datasets, we develop a spatial approach for both expert-based and purely statistical-based modeling of current vulnerability levels across 340 neighborhoods of the city using a Geographic Information System (GIS). The results of both approaches are comparatively evaluated by means of spatial statistics. A web-based approach is proposed to facilitate the visualization and the dissemination of the output vulnerability index to the community. The statistical and the expert-based modeling approach exhibit a high concordance, globally, and spatially. The expert-based approach indicates a slightly higher vulnerability mean (0.53) and vulnerability median (0.56) across all neighborhoods, compared to the purely statistical approach (mean = 0.48; median = 0.49). Both approaches reveal that high values of vulnerability tend to cluster in the eastern, north-eastern, and western part of the city. These are poor neighborhoods with high percentages of young (i.e., local expertise, statistical approaches could be used, with caution. By decomposing identified vulnerability "hotspots" into their underlying factors, our approach provides valuable information on both (1) the location of neighborhoods, and (2) vulnerability factors that should be given priority in the context of targeted intervention

  8. Desirability and feasibility of sustainable urban transport systems. An expert-based strategic scenario approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nijkamp, P.; Ouwersloot, H.; Rienstra, S.A. [Department of Spatial Economics, Faculty of Economics and Econometrics, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam (Netherlands)

    1995-09-01

    Current trends in transport indicate that the system is moving away from sustainability and that major changes are necessary to make the transport system more compatible with environmental sustainability. Main problems may occur in urban transport, where not many promising solutions are expected, while the problems are severe. In view of the great number of uncertainties, we will in our paper resort to scenarios. In the paper, expert scenarios, which lead to a sustainable transport system are constructed by applying the recently developed `Spider model`. Based on a set of distinct characteristics, leading to eight axes in the spatial, institutional, economic and social-psychological field, an evaluation framework is constructed, which visualizes the driving forces that largely influence the future of the transport system. Next, expected and desired scenarios are constructed by means of opinions of Dutch transport experts - both average scenarios and scenarios of segments of the respondents - which have been investigated by means of a survey. The expected scenarios indicate that many current trends will continue, while the transport system is largely the same as the current one. The desired scenarios on the other hand, suggest the emergence and the need for a more collective system, in which also many new modes are operating. In the paper the resulting urban transport systems are also discussed. By calculating the CO2 emissions in the average expected and desired scenario, it appears that the expected scenario does not lead to a large scale reduction of those emissions; the desired scenario however, may lead to a large scale reduction of the emissions. The conclusion is that the differences in expert opinion are small and that the road towards a sustainable (urban) transport system is still far away, although the compact city concept may perhaps offer some solution. 6 figs., 2 tabs., 18 refs.

  9. Image-based teleconsultation using smartphones or tablets: qualitative assessment of medical experts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boissin, Constance; Blom, Lisa; Wallis, Lee; Laflamme, Lucie

    2017-02-01

    Mobile health has promising potential in improving healthcare delivery by facilitating access to expert advice. Enabling experts to review images on their smartphone or tablet may save valuable time. This study aims at assessing whether images viewed by medical specialists on handheld devices such as smartphones and tablets are perceived to be of comparable quality as when viewed on a computer screen. This was a prospective study comparing the perceived quality of 18 images on three different display devices (smartphone, tablet and computer) by 27 participants (4 burn surgeons and 23 emergency medicine specialists). The images, presented in random order, covered clinical (dermatological conditions, burns, ECGs and X-rays) and non-clinical subjects and their perceived quality was assessed using a 7-point Likert scale. Differences in devices' quality ratings were analysed using linear regression models for clustered data adjusting for image type and participants' characteristics (age, gender and medical specialty). Overall, the images were rated good or very good in most instances and more so for the smartphone (83.1%, mean score 5.7) and tablet (78.2%, mean 5.5) than for a standard computer (70.6%, mean 5.2). Both handheld devices had significantly higher ratings than the computer screen, even after controlling for image type and participants' characteristics. Nearly all experts expressed that they would be comfortable using smartphones (n=25) or tablets (n=26) for image-based teleconsultation. This study suggests that handheld devices could be a substitute for computer screens for teleconsultation by physicians working in emergency settings. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

  10. A fuzzy expert system to Trust-Based Access Control in crowdsourcing environments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olusegun Folorunso

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Crowdsourcing has been widely accepted across a broad range of application areas. In crowdsourcing environments, the possibility of performing human computation is characterized with risks due to the openness of their web-based platforms where each crowd worker joins and participates in the process at any time, causing serious effect on the quality of its computation. In this paper, a combination of Trust-Based Access Control (TBAC strategy and fuzzy-expert systems was used to enhance the quality of human computation in crowdsourcing environment. A TBAC-fuzzy algorithm was developed and implemented using MATLAB 7.6.0 to compute trust value (Tvalue, priority value as evaluated by fuzzy inference system (FIS and finally generate access decision to each crowd-worker. In conclusion, the use of TBAC is feasible in improving quality of human computation in crowdsourcing environments.

  11. General purpose - expert system for the analysis and design of base plates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Al-Shawaf, T.D.; Hahn, W.F.; Ho, A.D.

    1987-01-01

    As an expert system, the IMPLATE program uses plant specific information to make decisions in modeling and analysis of baseplates. The user supplies a minimum of information which is checked for validity and reasonableness. Once this data is supplied, the program automatically generates a compatible mesh and finite element model from its data base accounting for the attachments, stiffeners, anchor bolts and plate/concrete interface. Based on the loading direction, the program deletes certain degrees of freedom and performs a linear or a nonlinear solution, whichever is appropriate. Load step sizes and equilibrium iteration are automatically selected by the program to ensure a convergent solution. Once the analysis is completed, a code check is then performed and a summary of results is produced. Plots of the plate deformation pattern and stress contours are also generated. (orig.)

  12. A semi-linguistic approach based on fuzzy set theory: application to expert judgments aggregation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ghyym, Seong Ho

    1998-01-01

    In the present work, a semi-linguistic fuzzy algorithm is proposed to obtain the fuzzy weighting values for multi-criterion, multi-alternative performance evaluation problem, with application to the aggregated estimate in the aggregation process of multi-expert judgments. The algorithm framework proposed is composed of the hierarchical structure, the semi-linguistic approach, the fuzzy R-L type integral value, and the total risk attitude index. In this work, extending the Chang/Chen method for triangular fuzzy numbers, the total risk attitude index is devised for a trapezoidal fuzzy number system. To illustrate the application of the algorithm proposed, a case problem available in literature is studied in connection to the weighting value evaluation of three-alternative (i.e., the aggregation of three-expert judgments) under seven-criterion. The evaluation results such as overall utility value, aggregation weighting value, and aggregated estimate obtained using the present fuzzy model are compared with those for other fuzzy models based on the Kim/Park method, the Liou/Wang method, and the Chang/Chen method

  13. A semi-linguistic approach based on fuzzy set theory: application to expert judgments aggregation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ghyym, Seong Ho [KEPRI, Taejon (Korea, Republic of)

    1998-10-01

    In the present work, a semi-linguistic fuzzy algorithm is proposed to obtain the fuzzy weighting values for multi-criterion, multi-alternative performance evaluation problem, with application to the aggregated estimate in the aggregation process of multi-expert judgments. The algorithm framework proposed is composed of the hierarchical structure, the semi-linguistic approach, the fuzzy R-L type integral value, and the total risk attitude index. In this work, extending the Chang/Chen method for triangular fuzzy numbers, the total risk attitude index is devised for a trapezoidal fuzzy number system. To illustrate the application of the algorithm proposed, a case problem available in literature is studied in connection to the weighting value evaluation of three-alternative (i.e., the aggregation of three-expert judgments) under seven-criterion. The evaluation results such as overall utility value, aggregation weighting value, and aggregated estimate obtained using the present fuzzy model are compared with those for other fuzzy models based on the Kim/Park method, the Liou/Wang method, and the Chang/Chen method.

  14. Accident diagnosis system based on real-time decision tree expert system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicolau, Andressa dos S.; Augusto, João P. da S. C.; Schirru, Roberto

    2017-06-01

    Safety is one of the most studied topics when referring to power stations. For that reason, sensors and alarms develop an important role in environmental and human protection. When abnormal event happens, it triggers a chain of alarms that must be, somehow, checked by the control room operators. In this case, diagnosis support system can help operators to accurately identify the possible root-cause of the problem in short time. In this article, we present a computational model of a generic diagnose support system based on artificial intelligence, that was applied on the dataset of two real power stations: Angra1 Nuclear Power Plant and Santo Antônio Hydroelectric Plant. The proposed system processes all the information logged in the sequence of events before a shutdown signal using the expert's knowledge inputted into an expert system indicating the chain of events, from the shutdown signal to its root-cause. The results of both applications showed that the support system is a potential tool to help the control room operators identify abnormal events, as accidents and consequently increase the safety.

  15. DG Allocation Based on Reliability, Losses and Voltage Sag Considerations: an expert system approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sahar Abdel Moneim Moussa

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Expert System (ES as a branch of Artificial Intelligence (AI methodology can potentially help in solving complicated power system problems. This may be more appropriate methodology than conventional optimization techniques when contradiction between objectives appears in reaching the optimum solution. When this contradiction is the hindrance in reaching the required system operation through the application of traditional methods ES can give a hand in such case. In this paper, the  knowledge- based ES technique is proposed to reach near-optimum solution which is further directed to the optimum solution through particle swarm optimization (PSO technique. This idea is known as Hybrid-Expert-System (HES. The proposed idea is used in getting the optimum allocation of a number of distributed generation (DG units on Distribution System (DS busbars taking into consideration three issues; reliability, voltage sag, and line losses. Optimality is assessed on the economic basis by calculating money benefits (or losses resulting from DG addition considering the three aforementioned issues. The effectiveness of the proposed technique is ascertained through example.

  16. A Quality Function Deployment-Based Expert System for Cotton Fibre Selection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chakraborty, Shankar; Prasad, Kanika

    2018-06-01

    The textile industries have seen resurgence in customers' demand for quality products during the preceding few years. This product range is extremely varied, with hand-spun and hand-woven products at one end of the spectrum, while products manufactured from the capital intensive sophisticated machineries at the other end. Since, cotton fibres are predominantly employed as the raw material for manufacturing these products, their proper selection is crucial for sustainable development of the textile/spinning industries. However, availability of numerous cotton fibre alternatives with various physical properties makes this selection process unwieldy and time consuming. Thus, there is need for a structured approach that can incorporate customers' demand into the selection process. This paper demonstrates the application of a structured and logical procedure of selecting the best cotton fibre type to fulfill a set of specified end product requirements through design and development of a quality function deployment (QFD)-based expert system. The QFD technique is employed here to provide due importance to the customers' spoken and unspoken needs, and subsequently calculate the priority weights of the considered cotton fibre properties. Two real time illustrative examples are presented to explicate the applicability and potentiality of the developed expert system to resolve cotton fibre selection problems.

  17. A Quality Function Deployment-Based Expert System for Cotton Fibre Selection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chakraborty, Shankar; Prasad, Kanika

    2018-01-01

    The textile industries have seen resurgence in customers' demand for quality products during the preceding few years. This product range is extremely varied, with hand-spun and hand-woven products at one end of the spectrum, while products manufactured from the capital intensive sophisticated machineries at the other end. Since, cotton fibres are predominantly employed as the raw material for manufacturing these products, their proper selection is crucial for sustainable development of the textile/spinning industries. However, availability of numerous cotton fibre alternatives with various physical properties makes this selection process unwieldy and time consuming. Thus, there is need for a structured approach that can incorporate customers' demand into the selection process. This paper demonstrates the application of a structured and logical procedure of selecting the best cotton fibre type to fulfill a set of specified end product requirements through design and development of a quality function deployment (QFD)-based expert system. The QFD technique is employed here to provide due importance to the customers' spoken and unspoken needs, and subsequently calculate the priority weights of the considered cotton fibre properties. Two real time illustrative examples are presented to explicate the applicability and potentiality of the developed expert system to resolve cotton fibre selection problems.

  18. Guerra, terror, julgamento War, terror, judgement

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. B. J. Walker

    2003-12-01

    Full Text Available O presente artigo responde a uma variedade de tentativas precoces de interpretar o significado mais amplo da violência do 11 de setembro de 2001. Seu argumento central diz respeito às bases do julgamento político. Aborda uma variedade de interpretações correntes para as formas contemporâneas de violência em parte relacionadas às alegações de uma política weberiana de responsabilidade, em parte relacionadas às tensões estruturais entre princípios de multilateralismo e unilateralismo. O artigo sugere que nem o multilateralismo nem o unilateralismo são suficientes para dar conta das questões sobre autoridade legítima e violência, para as quais o 11 de setembro de 2001 pelo menos trouxe um pouco mais de clareza. Conclui com uma breve alusão à crescente dificuldade para se desenhar linhas, não somente entre os civilizados e os bárbaros, mas também as linhas físicas que foram usadas para criar o sistema moderno de Estados, em muitos contextos, mas esta é uma dificuldade que está na raiz de problemas mais sérios envolvidos na formação do julgamento político moderno.This article responds to the variety of early attempts to interpret the broader significance of the violence of September 11, 2001. Its central argument concerns the grounds for political judgement. It reads a variety of current interpretations of contemporary forms of violence partly in relation to claims about a Weberian politics of responsibility and partly in relation to structural tensions between principles of multilateralism and unilateralism. Neither multilateralism nor unilateralism, the article suggests, is sufficient to engage the questions about legitimate authority and violence to which September 11, 2001 at least brought greater clarity. It concludes with a brief allusion to the increasing difficulty of drawing lines; not only lines between the civilized and the barbarian but also the physical lines that have been used to create a modern system of

  19. Matrix Failure Modes and Effects Analysis as a Knowledge Base for a Real Time Automated Diagnosis Expert System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herrin, Stephanie; Iverson, David; Spukovska, Lilly; Souza, Kenneth A. (Technical Monitor)

    1994-01-01

    Failure Modes and Effects Analysis contain a wealth of information that can be used to create the knowledge base required for building automated diagnostic Expert systems. A real time monitoring and diagnosis expert system based on an actual NASA project's matrix failure modes and effects analysis was developed. This Expert system Was developed at NASA Ames Research Center. This system was first used as a case study to monitor the Research Animal Holding Facility (RAHF), a Space Shuttle payload that is used to house and monitor animals in orbit so the effects of space flight and microgravity can be studied. The techniques developed for the RAHF monitoring and diagnosis Expert system are general enough to be used for monitoring and diagnosis of a variety of other systems that undergo a Matrix FMEA. This automated diagnosis system was successfully used on-line and validated on the Space Shuttle flight STS-58, mission SLS-2 in October 1993.

  20. Method for distributed agent-based non-expert simulation of manufacturing process behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ivezic, Nenad; Potok, Thomas E.

    2004-11-30

    A method for distributed agent based non-expert simulation of manufacturing process behavior on a single-processor computer comprises the steps of: object modeling a manufacturing technique having a plurality of processes; associating a distributed agent with each the process; and, programming each the agent to respond to discrete events corresponding to the manufacturing technique, wherein each discrete event triggers a programmed response. The method can further comprise the step of transmitting the discrete events to each agent in a message loop. In addition, the programming step comprises the step of conditioning each agent to respond to a discrete event selected from the group consisting of a clock tick message, a resources received message, and a request for output production message.

  1. Strategy for Developing Expert-System-Based Internet Protocols (TCP/IP)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ivancic, William D.

    1997-01-01

    The Satellite Networks and Architectures Branch of NASA's Lewis Research is addressing the issue of seamless interoperability of satellite networks with terrestrial networks. One of the major issues is improving reliable transmission protocols such as TCP over long latency and error-prone links. Many tuning parameters are available to enhance the performance of TCP including segment size, timers and window sizes. There are also numerous congestion avoidance algorithms such as slow start, selective retransmission and selective acknowledgment that are utilized to improve performance. This paper provides a strategy to characterize the performance of TCP relative to various parameter settings in a variety of network environments (i.e. LAN, WAN, wireless, satellite, and IP over ATM). This information can then be utilized to develop expert-system-based Internet protocols.

  2. Rule base system in developing groundwater pollution expert system: predicting model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mongkon Ta-oun; Mohamed Daud; Mohd Zohadie Bardaie; Shamshuddin Jusop

    2000-01-01

    New techniques are now available for use in the protection of the environment. One of these techniques is the use of expert system for prediction groundwater pollution potential. Groundwater Pollution Expert system (GWPES) rules are a collection of principles and procedures used to know the comprehension of groundwater pollution prediction. The rules of groundwater pollution expert system in the form of questions, choice, radio-box, slide rule, button or frame are translated in to IF-THEN rule. The rules including of variables, types, domains and descriptions were used by the function of wxCLIPS (C Language Integrate Production System) expert system shell. (author)

  3. Clinical judgement in the era of big data and predictive analytics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chin-Yee, Benjamin; Upshur, Ross

    2017-12-13

    Clinical judgement is a central and longstanding issue in the philosophy of medicine which has generated significant interest over the past few decades. In this article, we explore different approaches to clinical judgement articulated in the literature, focusing in particular on data-driven, mathematical approaches which we contrast with narrative, virtue-based approaches to clinical reasoning. We discuss the tension between these different clinical epistemologies and further explore the implications of big data and machine learning for a philosophy of clinical judgement. We argue for a pluralistic, integrative approach, and demonstrate how narrative, virtue-based clinical reasoning will remain indispensable in an era of big data and predictive analytics. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  4. A Belief Rule-Based Expert System to Assess Bronchiolitis Suspicion from Signs and Symptoms Under Uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karim, Rezuan; Hossain, Mohammad Shahadat; Khalid, Md. Saifuddin

    2017-01-01

    developed generic belief rule-based inference methodology by using evidential reasoning (RIMER) acts as the inference engine of this BRBES while belief rule base as the knowledge representation schema. The knowledge base of the system is constructed by using real patient data and expert opinion from...

  5. Computers start to think with expert systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1983-03-21

    A growing number of professionals-notably in oil and mineral exploration, plasma research, medicine, VLSI circuit design, drug design and robotics-are beginning to use computerised expert systems. A computer program uses knowledge and inference procedures to solve problems which are sufficiently difficult to require significant human expertise for their solution. The facts constitute a body of information that is widely shared, publicly available and generally agreed upon by experts in the field. The heuristics are mostly private, and little discussed, rules of good judgement (rules of plausible reasoning, rules of good guessing, etc.) that characterise expert-level decision making in the field.

  6. 39 VetoMed : un système expert à base d'icônes pour la médecine ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    PR BOKO

    Mots-clés: système expert, générateur de systèmes expert, base de connaissances, médecine traditionnelle vétérinaire, plantes médicinales, interface iconique, tradipraticien. Abstract. VetoMed : An icon-based expert system for Traditional Veterinary Medicine. In this paper we propose an expert system in which, icons are ...

  7. Spectral information interpretation of X-ray analysis based on expert system approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Drakunov, Yu.M.; Lezin, A.N.; Pukha, N.P.; Silachev, I.Yu.

    2000-01-01

    An expert subprogram for automated identification for element composition of the samples of different nature according to the result of energy-dispersive X-ray fluorescence analysis is elaborated, The flowchart of the subprogram is presented, brief description of expert system structure and its algorithm is given. (author)

  8. Expert systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haldy, P.A.

    1988-01-01

    The definitions of the terms 'artificial intelligence' and 'expert systems', the methodology, areas of employment and limits of expert systems are discussed. The operation of an expert system is described, especially the presentation and organization of knowledge as well as interference and control. Methods and tools for expert system development are presented and their application in nuclear energy are briefly addressed. 7 figs., 2 tabs., 6 refs

  9. A probabilistic risk assessment for field radiography based on expert judgment and opinion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jang, Han-Ki; Ryu, Hyung-Joon; Kim, Ji-Young; Lee, Jai-Ki; Cho, Kun-Woo

    2011-01-01

    A probabilistic approach was applied to assess radiation risk associated with the field radiography using gamma sources. The Delphi method based on the expert judgments and opinions was used in the process of characterization of parameters affecting risk, which are inevitably subject to large uncertainties. A mathematical approach applying the Bayesian inferences was employed for data processing to improve the Delphi results. This process consists of three phases: (1) setting prior distributions, (2) constructing the likelihood functions and (3) deriving the posterior distributions based on the likelihood functions. The approach for characterizing input parameters using the Bayesian inference is provided for improved risk estimates without intentional rejection of part of the data, which demonstrated utility of Bayesian updating of distributions of uncertain input parameters in PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessment). The data analysis portion for PRA in field radiography is addressed for estimates of the parameters used to determine the frequencies and consequences of the various events modeled. In this study, radiological risks for the worker and the public member in the vicinity of the work place are estimated for field radiography system in Korea based on two-dimensional Monte Carlo Analysis (2D MCA). (author)

  10. Evidence - based pharmacological treatment of atopic dermatitis: An expert opinion and new expectations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arnold P Oranje

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Atopic dermatitis (AD is one of the most common skin diseases with a complex multifactorial background. The clinical presentation, the aggravating factors and the complications vary according to the age of the patients. Most cases, approximately 60-80%, present for the 1 st time before the age of 12 months. Adult-onset AD has been observed as a special variant. Pruritus is the worst sign of AD, which also often indicates an exacerbation and is considered to be the most annoying symptom of AD. Treatment is preferably started based on the severity of AD. In only 10% of the cases, AD is so severe that systemic treatment is necessary. Systemic treatment including topical wet-wrap treatment is indicated in the worst and recalcitrant cases of AD. Systemic treatment of AD is discussed with regards to the evidence-based efficacy and safety aspects. I prefer wet-wraps as a crisis intervention in severe childhood cases, whereas UV and systemic treatments are the choices in patients older than 10 years. Probiotics are not useful in the treatment. If they have any effect at all it may only be in food-allergic children with AD. Finally, anti-histamines are not effective against pruritus in AD. They are only effective against urticarial flares and in cases with food-allergy. This article consists of an expert opinion on evidence-based pharmacological treatment of AD, but it is not a systemic review.

  11. Research on erroneous judgement and operation of human at emergency

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Li; Huang Shudong; Li Xianyi; Chen Jianhua

    2001-01-01

    The behavior characteristic of human at emergency is analysed, and the root causes and the influencing factors are discussed, which result in erroneous judgement and operation. With experiment on erroneous judgement and operation of human at emergency, the error characteristic values are obtained, then the mathematical models are established. Comparing to foreign data, it is known that there are no marked differences between Chinese and foreigners in percent of erroneous judgement and operation at emergency

  12. Evaluating future detriment from radioactive discharges Judgements and implications for optimisation of protection

    CERN Document Server

    Fleishman, A B

    1982-01-01

    For long-lived nuclides released into the environment, it is possible to calculate dose commitments extending over thousands or millions of years. The inclusion of this detriment to future populations in present day decision-making is not a technical matter, but represents an area where judgement must be applied. This report shows how different judgements on the relative valuation of future doses can have significant implications for the management of radioactive effluents. A quantitative framework for the expression of such judgements is proposed for optimisation studies, to clarify for decision-makers these implications in the assessment of alternative management options. This is based on the economic principles of discounting, but is related to the use of incomplete collective dose commitments (truncated in time), and includes a zero discount rate which assigns the same weight to doses whenever received. The framework is applied to a series of potential management options for the control of carbon-14, kryp...

  13. A novel AIDS/HIV intelligent medical consulting system based on expert systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebrahimi, Alireza Pour; Toloui Ashlaghi, Abbas; Mahdavy Rad, Maryam

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to propose a novel intelligent model for AIDS/HIV data based on expert system and using it for developing an intelligent medical consulting system for AIDS/HIV. In this descriptive research, 752 frequently asked questions (FAQs) about AIDS/HIV are gathered from numerous websites about this disease. To perform the data mining and extracting the intelligent model, the 6 stages of Crisp method has been completed for FAQs. The 6 stages include: Business understanding, data understanding, data preparation, modelling, evaluation and deployment. C5.0 Tree classification algorithm is used for modelling. Also, rational unified process (RUP) is used to develop the web-based medical consulting software. Stages of RUP are as follows: Inception, elaboration, construction and transition. The intelligent developed model has been used in the infrastructure of the software and based on client's inquiry and keywords related FAQs are displayed to the client, according to the rank. FAQs' ranks are gradually determined considering clients reading it. Based on displayed FAQs, test and entertainment links are also displayed. The accuracy of the AIDS/HIV intelligent web-based medical consulting system is estimated to be 78.76%. AIDS/HIV medical consulting systems have been developed using intelligent infrastructure. Being equipped with an intelligent model, providing consulting services on systematic textual data and providing side services based on client's activities causes the implemented system to be unique. The research has been approved by Iranian Ministry of Health and Medical Education for being practical.

  14. An expert system design to diagnose cancer by using a new method reduced rule base.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Başçiftçi, Fatih; Avuçlu, Emre

    2018-04-01

    A Medical Expert System (MES) was developed which uses Reduced Rule Base to diagnose cancer risk according to the symptoms in an individual. A total of 13 symptoms were used. With the new MES, the reduced rules are controlled instead of all possibilities (2 13 = 8192 different possibilities occur). By controlling reduced rules, results are found more quickly. The method of two-level simplification of Boolean functions was used to obtain Reduced Rule Base. Thanks to the developed application with the number of dynamic inputs and outputs on different platforms, anyone can easily test their own cancer easily. More accurate results were obtained considering all the possibilities related to cancer. Thirteen different risk factors were determined to determine the type of cancer. The truth table produced in our study has 13 inputs and 4 outputs. The Boolean Function Minimization method is used to obtain less situations by simplifying logical functions. Diagnosis of cancer quickly thanks to control of the simplified 4 output functions. Diagnosis made with the 4 output values obtained using Reduced Rule Base was found to be quicker than diagnosis made by screening all 2 13 = 8192 possibilities. With the improved MES, more probabilities were added to the process and more accurate diagnostic results were obtained. As a result of the simplification process in breast and renal cancer diagnosis 100% diagnosis speed gain, in cervical cancer and lung cancer diagnosis rate gain of 99% was obtained. With Boolean function minimization, less number of rules is evaluated instead of evaluating a large number of rules. Reducing the number of rules allows the designed system to work more efficiently and to save time, and facilitates to transfer the rules to the designed Expert systems. Interfaces were developed in different software platforms to enable users to test the accuracy of the application. Any one is able to diagnose the cancer itself using determinative risk factors. Thereby

  15. The Evaluation of the Cognitive Learning Process of the Renewed Bloom Taxonomy Using a Web Based Expert System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goksu, Idris

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this study is to develop the Web Based Expert System (WBES) which provides analyses and reports based on the cognitive processes of Renewed Bloom Taxonomy (RBT), and to put forward the impact of the supportive education provided in line with these reports, on the academic achievement and mastery learning state of the students. The study…

  16. An Expert System for Diagnosis of Sleep Disorder Using Fuzzy Rule-Based Classification Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Septem Riza, Lala; Pradini, Mila; Fitrajaya Rahman, Eka; Rasim

    2017-03-01

    Sleep disorder is an anomaly that could cause problems for someone’ sleeping pattern. Nowadays, it becomes an issue since people are getting busy with their own business and have no time to visit the doctors. Therefore, this research aims to develop a system used for diagnosis of sleep disorder using Fuzzy Rule-Based Classification System (FRBCS). FRBCS is a method based on the fuzzy set concepts. It consists of two steps: (i) constructing a model/knowledge involving rulebase and database, and (ii) prediction over new data. In this case, the knowledge is obtained from experts whereas in the prediction stage, we perform fuzzification, inference, and classification. Then, a platform implementing the method is built with a combination between PHP and the R programming language using the “Shiny” package. To validate the system that has been made, some experiments have been done using data from a psychiatric hospital in West Java, Indonesia. Accuracy of the result and computation time are 84.85% and 0.0133 seconds, respectively.

  17. Assessment of features for automatic CTG analysis based on expert annotation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chudácek, Vacláv; Spilka, Jirí; Lhotská, Lenka; Janku, Petr; Koucký, Michal; Huptych, Michal; Bursa, Miroslav

    2011-01-01

    Cardiotocography (CTG) is the monitoring of fetal heart rate (FHR) and uterine contractions (TOCO) since 1960's used routinely by obstetricians to detect fetal hypoxia. The evaluation of the FHR in clinical settings is based on an evaluation of macroscopic morphological features and so far has managed to avoid adopting any achievements from the HRV research field. In this work, most of the ever-used features utilized for FHR characterization, including FIGO, HRV, nonlinear, wavelet, and time and frequency domain features, are investigated and the features are assessed based on their statistical significance in the task of distinguishing the FHR into three FIGO classes. Annotation derived from the panel of experts instead of the commonly utilized pH values was used for evaluation of the features on a large data set (552 records). We conclude the paper by presenting the best uncorrelated features and their individual rank of importance according to the meta-analysis of three different ranking methods. Number of acceleration and deceleration, interval index, as well as Lempel-Ziv complexity and Higuchi's fractal dimension are among the top five features.

  18. The use of expert opinion for estimation of component unavailability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jordan Cizelj, R.; Kljenak, I.

    1998-01-01

    When evaluating system safety with Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA), data of component reliability are necessary input data. Despite a significant effort which has been devoted to the collection and processing of reliability data during the last ten years, the quality of data available is still not satisfactory. In the present paper, a method for a suitable failure rate estimation with the help of expert judgement of maintenance people is proposed. Expert judgement about component state is combined with information gathered from a classical reliability database. With the proposed method, generic data are adapted to specific components with combination of probability and fuzzy logic theory.(author)

  19. [Isolated primary nocturnal enuresis: international evidence based management. Consensus recommendations by French expert group].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aubert, D; Berard, E; Blanc, J-P; Lenoir, G; Liard, F; Lottmann, H

    2010-05-01

    The causes and treatment of isolated primary nocturnal enuresis (PNE) are the subject of ongoing controversy. We are proposing consensus practical recommendations, based on a formalised analysis of the literature and validated by a large panel of experts. A task force of six experts based its work on the guide for literature analysis and recommendations and recommendation grading of the French Haute Autorité de Santé (formalized consensus process methodological guidelines) to evaluate the level of scientific proof (grade of 1 to 4) and the strength of the recommendations (grade A, B, C) of the publications on PNE. As a result of this, 223 articles from 2003 on were identified, of which only 127 (57 %) have an evaluable level of proof. This evaluation was then reviewed by a 19-member rating group. Several recommendations, poorly defined by the literature, had to be proposed by a professional agreement resulting from a consultation between the members of the task force and those of the rating group. For its final validation, the document was submitted to a reading group of 21 members working in a wide range of specialist areas and practices but all involved in PNE. The definition of PNE is very specific: intermittent incontinence during sleep, from the age of 5, with no continuous period of continence longer than 6 months, with no other associated symptom, particularly during the day. Its diagnosis is clinical by the exclusion of all other urinary pathologies. Two factors must be identified during the consultation: nocturnal polyuria promoted by excessive fluid intake, inverse secretion of vasopressin, snoring and sleep apnoea. It is sensitive to desmopressin; small bladder capacity evaluated according to a voiding diary and the ICCS formula. It may be associated with diurnal hyperactivity of the detrusor (30 %). It is resistant to desmopressin. Problems associated with PNE are: abnormal arousal threshold, attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) (10 %), low

  20. MANAGEMENT OF RISKS BASED ON INTERACTION BETWEEN CONSTRUCTION EXPERT AND CUSTOMER ORGANIZATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Александр Васильевич Харитонович

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available The paper describes problems connected to management of risk and key characteristics of interaction of construction expert and organization-customer of expert services. We have conducted the analysis of different schemes used for management of risk, their advantages and disadvantages. In addition authors describe the main opportunities that appear in the organization as a result of the systematic engagement of an external expert at different stages of investment and construction project (getting recommendations aimed at improving of the organization adaptability to changes and risks; improving the efficiency of management of investment and construction projects etc..

  1. Expert system. Based advisory system for the operator's mental activities support

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gieci, A.; Macko, J.; Mosny, J.

    2000-01-01

    The operator's mental activity is the most important part of his work. A processing of a large amount of the information by the operator is possible only if he/she possesses appropriate cognitive skills. To facilitate the novice's acquisition of the experienced operator's cognitive skills of the decision-making process a special type of the expert system was developed. The cognitive engineering's models and problem-solving methodology constitutes the basis of this expert system. The article gives an account of the prototype of the mentioned expert system developed to aid the whole mental activity of the nuclear power plant operator during his decision-making process. (author)

  2. Rule Based Expert System for Monitoring Real Time Drug Supply in Hospital Using Radio Frequency Identification Technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Driandanu, Galih; Surarso, Bayu; Suryono

    2018-02-01

    A radio frequency identification (RFID) has obtained increasing attention with the emergence of various applications. This study aims to examine the implementation of rule based expert system supported by RFID technology into a monitoring information system of drug supply in a hospital. This research facilitates in monitoring the real time drug supply by using data sample from the hospital pharmacy. This system able to identify and count the number of drug and provide warning and report in real time. the conclusion is the rule based expert system and RFID technology can facilitate the performance in monitoring the drug supply quickly and precisely.

  3. A novel computer based expert decision making model for prostate cancer disease management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richman, Martin B; Forman, Ernest H; Bayazit, Yildirim; Einstein, Douglas B; Resnick, Martin I; Stovsky, Mark D

    2005-12-01

    We propose a strategic, computer based, prostate cancer decision making model based on the analytic hierarchy process. We developed a model that improves physician-patient joint decision making and enhances the treatment selection process by making this critical decision rational and evidence based. Two groups (patient and physician-expert) completed a clinical study comparing an initial disease management choice with the highest ranked option generated by the computer model. Participants made pairwise comparisons to derive priorities for the objectives and subobjectives related to the disease management decision. The weighted comparisons were then applied to treatment options to yield prioritized rank lists that reflect the likelihood that a given alternative will achieve the participant treatment goal. Aggregate data were evaluated by inconsistency ratio analysis and sensitivity analysis, which assessed the influence of individual objectives and subobjectives on the final rank list of treatment options. Inconsistency ratios less than 0.05 were reliably generated, indicating that judgments made within the model were mathematically rational. The aggregate prioritized list of treatment options was tabulated for the patient and physician groups with similar outcomes for the 2 groups. Analysis of the major defining objectives in the treatment selection decision demonstrated the same rank order for the patient and physician groups with cure, survival and quality of life being more important than controlling cancer, preventing major complications of treatment, preventing blood transfusion complications and limiting treatment cost. Analysis of subobjectives, including quality of life and sexual dysfunction, produced similar priority rankings for the patient and physician groups. Concordance between initial treatment choice and the highest weighted model option differed between the groups with the patient group having 59% concordance and the physician group having only 42

  4. Using Fuzzy Logic to Increase the Accuracy of E-Commerce Risk Assessment Based on an Expert System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Beheshti

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Strong adaptive control can be exercised even without access to accurate data inputs. Such control is possible through fuzzy mathematics, which is a meta-collection of Boolean logic principles that imply relative accuracy. Fuzzy mathematics find applications in e-commerce, where different risk analysis methods are available for risk assessment and estimation. Such approaches can be quantitative or qualitative, depending on the type of examined data. Quantitative methods are grounded in statistics, whereas qualitative methods are based on expert judgments and fuzzy set theory. Given that qualitative methods are very subjective and deal with vague or inaccurate data, fuzzy logic can be used to extract useful information from data inaccuracies. In this study, a model based on the opinions of e-commerce security experts was designed and implemented by using fuzzy expert systems and MATLAB. A case study was conducted to validate the effectiveness of the Model.

  5. Feasibility of an AI-Based Measure of the Hand Motions of Expert and Novice Surgeons

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Munenori Uemura

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available This study investigated whether parameters derived from hand motions of expert and novice surgeons accurately and objectively reflect laparoscopic surgical skill levels using an artificial intelligence system consisting of a three-layer chaos neural network. Sixty-seven surgeons (23 experts and 44 novices performed a laparoscopic skill assessment task while their hand motions were recorded using a magnetic tracking sensor. Eight parameters evaluated as measures of skill in a previous study were used as inputs to the neural network. Optimization of the neural network was achieved after seven trials with a training dataset of 38 surgeons, with a correct judgment ratio of 0.99. The neural network that prospectively worked with the remaining 29 surgeons had a correct judgment rate of 79% for distinguishing between expert and novice surgeons. In conclusion, our artificial intelligence system distinguished between expert and novice surgeons among surgeons with unknown skill levels.

  6. Proposal for a structured computed tomography report in the evaluation of pancreatic neoplasms based on expert opinions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lopes, Paulo Gustavo Maciel; Matsumoto, Carlos Alberto; Lobo, Edson José; D' Ippolito, Giuseppe, E-mail: pgmlopes87@gmail.com [Universidade Federal de São Paulo (EPM/UNIFESP), SP (Brazil). Escola de Medicina

    2018-03-15

    Objective: To create a structured computed tomography (CT) report for the systematic evaluation of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC), based on the opinions of clinicians and surgeons. Materials And Methods: This was a prospective study in which we applied a 21-item questionnaire to experts in pancreatic diseases in order to create a model of a structured abdominal CT report. The questionnaire addressed the location and size of PDACs, as well as their effects on adjacent structures and on the vasculature, together with metastases. We used a Likert scale to determine which of those parameters should be included in the model. Results: A total of 18 experts (12 surgeons and 6 clinicians) from 9 institutions completed the questionnaire. All of the experts agreed that the following (if present) should be described in the CT report on a PDAC: the degree of enhancement; the diameter and location of the lesion; pancreatic duct obstruction; biliary dilatation; pancreatic atrophy; liver metastases; peritoneal nodules; ascites; lymph node enlargement; and invasion of adjacent structures. More than 80% of the experts agreed that the report should also describe the relationship between the PDAC and the surrounding vasculature. Conclusion: We have developed a template for a CT report on patients with PDAC, based on the opinions of experts involved in the treatment of such patients. (author)

  7. A knowledge based expert system for propellant system monitoring at the Kennedy Space Center

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jamieson, J. R.; Delaune, C.; Scarl, E.

    1985-01-01

    The Lox Expert System (LES) is the first attempt to build a realtime expert system capable of simulating the thought processes of NASA system engineers, with regard to fluids systems analysis and troubleshooting. An overview of the hardware and software describes the techniques used, and possible applications to other process control systems. LES is now in the advanced development stage, with a full implementation planned for late 1985.

  8. Image-based teleconsultation using smartphones or tablets: qualitative assessment of medical experts

    OpenAIRE

    Boissin, Constance; Blom, Lisa; Wallis, Lee; Laflamme, Lucie

    2016-01-01

    Background Mobile health has promising potential in improving healthcare delivery by facilitating access to expert advice. Enabling experts to review images on their smartphone or tablet may save valuable time. This study aims at assessing whether images viewed by medical specialists on handheld devices such as smartphones and tablets are perceived to be of comparable quality as when viewed on a computer screen. Methods This was a prospective study comparing the perceived quality of 18 images...

  9. Exploiting Expert Knowledge to Enhance Simulation-based Optimization of Environmental Remediation Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reslink, C. F.; Matott, L. S.

    2012-12-01

    Designing cost-effective systems to safeguard national water supplies from contaminated sites is often aided by simulation-based optimization - where a flow or transport model is linked with an "off-the-shelf" global optimization search algorithm. However, achieving good performance from these types of optimizers within a reasonable computational budget has proven to be difficult. Therefore, this research seeks to boost optimization efficiency by augmenting search procedures with non-traditional information, such as site-specific knowledge and practitioner rules-of-thumb. An example application involving pump-and-treat optimization is presented in which a series of extraction wells are to be installed to intercept pollutants at a contaminated site in Billings, Montana. Selected heuristic algorithms (e.g. Genetic Algorithm) are interfaced with a rules engine that makes inline adjustments to the well locations of candidate pump-and-treat designs. If necessary, the rules engine modifies a given pump-and-treat design so that: (1) wells are placed within plume boundaries; and (2) well placement is biased toward areas where, if left untreated, the plume is predicted to spread most rapidly. Results suggest that incorporating this kind of expert knowledge can significantly increase the search efficiency of many popular global optimizers.

  10. Artificial Immune Ecosystems: the role of expert-based learning in artificial cognition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pierre Parrend

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The rapid evolution of IT ecosystems significantly challenges the security models our infrastructures rely on. Beyond the old dichotomy between open and closed systems, it is now necessary to handle securely the interaction between heterogeneous devices building dynamic ecosystems. To this regard, bio-inspired approaches provide a rich set of conceptual tools, but they have failed to lay the basis for robust and efficient solutions. Our research effort intends to revisit the contribution of artificial immune system research to bring immune properties: security, resilience, distribution, memory, into IT infrastructures. Artificial immune ecosystems support a comprehensive model for anomaly detection and characterization, but their cognitive capacity are limited by the state of the art in machine learning and the rapid evolution of cybersecurity threats so far. We therefore propose to enrich the cognitive process with expert-based learning for reinforcement, classification and investigation. Application to system supervision using system logs and supervision time series confirms the relevance and performance of this model.

  11. Anaesthetic neurotoxicity and neuroplasticity: an expert group report and statement based on the BJA Salzburg Seminar

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jevtovic-Todorovic, V.; Absalom, A. R.; Blomgren, K.; Brambrink, A.; Crosby, G.; Culley, D. J.; Fiskum, G.; Giffard, R. G.; Herold, K. F.; Loepke, A. W.; Ma, D.; Orser, B. A.; Planel, E.; Slikker, W.; Soriano, S. G.; Stratmann, G.; Vutskits, L.; Xie, Z.; Hemmings, H. C.

    2013-01-01

    Although previously considered entirely reversible, general anaesthesia is now being viewed as a potentially significant risk to cognitive performance at both extremes of age. A large body of preclinical as well as some retrospective clinical evidence suggest that exposure to general anaesthesia could be detrimental to cognitive development in young subjects, and might also contribute to accelerated cognitive decline in the elderly. A group of experts in anaesthetic neuropharmacology and neurotoxicity convened in Salzburg, Austria for the BJA Salzburg Seminar on Anaesthetic Neurotoxicity and Neuroplasticity. This focused workshop was sponsored by the British Journal of Anaesthesia to review and critically assess currently available evidence from animal and human studies, and to consider the direction of future research. It was concluded that mounting evidence from preclinical studies reveals general anaesthetics to be powerful modulators of neuronal development and function, which could contribute to detrimental behavioural outcomes. However, definitive clinical data remain elusive. Since general anaesthesia often cannot be avoided regardless of patient age, it is important to understand the complex mechanisms and effects involved in anaesthesia-induced neurotoxicity, and to develop strategies for avoiding or limiting potential brain injury through evidence-based approaches. PMID:23722106

  12. Technological change in Swiss thermal waste treatment: An expert-based socio-technical analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spoerri, Andy; Lang, Daniel J.; Staeubli, Beat; Scholz, Roland W.

    2010-01-01

    Understanding technological change provides a crucial basis for governing sustainability transitions. In this paper we present an analysis of technological change using the example of Swiss thermal waste processing. In recent years, increased concerns about the low quality of residues from grate-firing systems led to the examination of alternative technologies. Yet despite clear indications of a potential better performance with respect to residue quality, none of these alternatives has been adopted. Based on a two-stage knowledge integration among 15 leading experts, in a retrospective analysis we identified factors that have significantly affected technological change in Swiss thermal waste processing. These factors were then related to three technological options representing different types of technological change, i.e., from incremental improvements of the existing to the implementation of a new technology. The results indicate that technological change is currently in a technological lock-in and provide detailed insights on the causes. The lock-in results in the step-wise further development of the status quo grate-firing system despite its limitations for improving the residue qualities. Almost all factors (legal, economic, societal, technological) of the existing 'thermal waste management' system have been well adapted to the cost- and energy-efficient grate-firing technology, blocking innovative technologies from entering the Swiss market. In addition, pressures from the context, e.g., societal pressure related to landfill risks, have not been strong enough to promote non-incremental change.

  13. Clarifying Delirium Management: Practical, Evidenced-Based, Expert Recommendations for Clinical Practice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pirrello, Rosene D.; Hirst, Jeremy M.; Buckholz, Gary T.; Ferris, Frank D.

    2013-01-01

    Abstract Delirium is highly prevalent in those with serious or advanced medical illnesses. It is associated with many adverse consequences, including significant patient, family, and health care provider distress. This article suggests a novel approach to delirium assessment and management and provides useful, practical guidance for clinicians based on a complete review of the existing literature and the expert clinical opinion of the authors and their colleagues, derived from over a decade of collective bedside experience. Comprehensive assessment includes careful description of observed symptoms, signs, and behaviors; and an understanding of the patient's situation, including primary diagnosis, associated comorbidities, functional status, and prognosis. The importance of incorporating goals of care for the patient and family is discussed. The concepts of potential reversibility versus irreversible delirium and delirium subtype are proffered, with a description of how diagnostic and management strategies follow from these concepts. Pharmacological interventions that provide rapid, effective, and safe relief are presented. Employing both pharmacological and nonpharmacological interventions, including patient and family education, improves symptoms and relieves patient and family distress, whether the delirium is reversible or irreversible, hyperactive or hypoactive. All interventions can be provided in any setting of care, including patients' homes. PMID:23480299

  14. Agent-Based Modelling for Security Risk Assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Janssen, S.A.M.; Sharpans'kykh, Alexei; Bajo, J.; Vale, Z.; Hallenborg, K.; Rocha, A.P.; Mathieu, P.; Pawlewski, P.; Del Val, E.; Novais, P.; Lopes, F.; Duque Méndez, N.D.; Julián, V.; Holmgren, J.

    2017-01-01

    Security Risk Assessment is commonly performed by using traditional methods based on linear probabilistic tools and informal expert judgements. These methods lack the capability to take the inherent dynamic and intelligent nature of attackers into account. To partially address the limitations,

  15. Upper arm elevation and repetitive shoulder movements: a general population job exposure matrix based on expert ratings and technical measurements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dalbøge, Annett; Hansson, Gert-Åke; Frost, Poul; Andersen, Johan Hviid; Heilskov-Hansen, Thomas; Svendsen, Susanne Wulff

    2016-08-01

    We recently constructed a general population job exposure matrix (JEM), The Shoulder JEM, based on expert ratings. The overall aim of this study was to convert expert-rated job exposures for upper arm elevation and repetitive shoulder movements to measurement scales. The Shoulder JEM covers all Danish occupational titles, divided into 172 job groups. For 36 of these job groups, we obtained technical measurements (inclinometry) of upper arm elevation and repetitive shoulder movements. To validate the expert-rated job exposures against the measured job exposures, we used Spearman rank correlations and the explained variance[Formula: see text] according to linear regression analyses (36 job groups). We used the linear regression equations to convert the expert-rated job exposures for all 172 job groups into predicted measured job exposures. Bland-Altman analyses were used to assess the agreement between the predicted and measured job exposures. The Spearman rank correlations were 0.63 for upper arm elevation and 0.64 for repetitive shoulder movements. The expert-rated job exposures explained 64% and 41% of the variance of the measured job exposures, respectively. The corresponding calibration equations were y=0.5%time+0.16×expert rating and y=27°/s+0.47×expert rating. The mean differences between predicted and measured job exposures were zero due to calibration; the 95% limits of agreement were ±2.9% time for upper arm elevation >90° and ±33°/s for repetitive shoulder movements. The updated Shoulder JEM can be used to present exposure-response relationships on measurement scales. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

  16. New criteria for inflammatory back pain in patients with chronic back pain: a real patient exercise by experts from the Assessment of SpondyloArthritis international Society (ASAS).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sieper, J; van der Heijde, D; Landewé, R; Brandt, J; Burgos-Vagas, R; Collantes-Estevez, E; Dijkmans, B; Dougados, M; Khan, M A; Leirisalo-Repo, M; van der Linden, S; Maksymowych, W P; Mielants, H; Olivieri, I; Rudwaleit, M

    2009-06-01

    Inflammatory back pain (IBP) is an important clinical symptom in patients with axial spondyloarthritis (SpA), and relevant for classification and diagnosis. In the present report, a new approach for the development of IBP classification criteria is discussed. Rheumatologists (n = 13) who are experts in SpA took part in a 2-day international workshop to investigate 20 patients with back pain and possible SpA. Each expert documented the presence/absence of clinical parameters typical for IBP, and judged whether IBP was considered present or absent based on the received information. This expert judgement was used as the dependent variable in a logistic regression analysis in order to identify those individual IBP parameters that contributed best to a diagnosis of IBP. The new set of IBP criteria was validated in a separate cohort of patients (n = 648). Five parameters best explained IBP according to the experts. These were: (1) improvement with exercise (odds ratio (OR) 23.1); (2) pain at night (OR 20.4); (3) insidious onset (OR 12.7); (4) age at onset validation cohort. This new approach with real patients defines a set of IBP definition criteria using overall expert judgement on IBP as the gold standard. The IBP experts' criteria are robust, easy to apply and have good face validity.

  17. Analysis, Simulation, and Verification of Knowledge-Based, Rule-Based, and Expert Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hinchey, Mike; Rash, James; Erickson, John; Gracanin, Denis; Rouff, Chris

    2010-01-01

    Mathematically sound techniques are used to view a knowledge-based system (KBS) as a set of processes executing in parallel and being enabled in response to specific rules being fired. The set of processes can be manipulated, examined, analyzed, and used in a simulation. The tool that embodies this technology may warn developers of errors in their rules, but may also highlight rules (or sets of rules) in the system that are underspecified (or overspecified) and need to be corrected for the KBS to operate as intended. The rules embodied in a KBS specify the allowed situations, events, and/or results of the system they describe. In that sense, they provide a very abstract specification of a system. The system is implemented through the combination of the system specification together with an appropriate inference engine, independent of the algorithm used in that inference engine. Viewing the rule base as a major component of the specification, and choosing an appropriate specification notation to represent it, reveals how additional power can be derived from an approach to the knowledge-base system that involves analysis, simulation, and verification. This innovative approach requires no special knowledge of the rules, and allows a general approach where standardized analysis, verification, simulation, and model checking techniques can be applied to the KBS.

  18. Normative and descriptive accounts of the influence of power and contingency on causal judgement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perales, José C; Shanks, David R

    2003-08-01

    The power PC theory (Cheng, 1997) is a normative account of causal inference, which predicts that causal judgements are based on the power p of a potential cause, where p is the cause-effect contingency normalized by the base rate of the effect. In three experiments we demonstrate that both cause-effect contingency and effect base-rate independently affect estimates in causal learning tasks. In Experiment 1, causal strength judgements were directly related to power p in a task in which the effect base-rate was manipulated across two positive and two negative contingency conditions. In Experiments 2 and 3 contingency manipulations affected causal estimates in several situations in which power p was held constant, contrary to the power PC theory's predictions. This latter effect cannot be explained by participants' conflation of reliability and causal strength, as Experiment 3 demonstrated independence of causal judgements and confidence. From a descriptive point of view, the data are compatible with Pearce's (1987) model, as well as with several other judgement rules, but not with the Rescorla-Wagner (Rescorla & Wagner, 1972) or power PC models.

  19. Expert Systems for the Analytical Laboratory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Monchy, Allan R.; And Others

    1988-01-01

    Discusses two computer problem solving programs: rule-based expert systems and decision analysis expert systems. Explores the application of expert systems to automated chemical analyses. Presents six factors to consider before using expert systems. (MVL)

  20. A test to identify judgement bias in mice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boleij, H.; van't Klooster, J.; Lavrijsen, M.; Kirchhoff, S.; Arndt, S.S.; Ohl, F.

    2012-01-01

    Emotional states are known to affect cognitive processes. For example highly anxious individuals interpret ambiguous stimuli more negatively than low anxious people, an effect called negative judgement bias. Recently, the measurement of judgement bias has been used to try and indicate emotional

  1. Recommendations for radioembolisation after liver surgery using yttrium-90 resin microspheres based on a survey of an international expert panel

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Samim, Morsal [University Medical Center Utrecht, Department of Surgery, Utrecht (Netherlands); University Medical Center Utrecht, Department of Radiology and Nuclear Medicine, Utrecht (Netherlands); Veenendaal, Linde M. van; Braat, Manon N.G.J.A.; Hoven, Andor F. van den; Bosch, Maurice A.A.J. van den; Lam, Marnix G.E.H. [University Medical Center Utrecht, Department of Radiology and Nuclear Medicine, Utrecht (Netherlands); Hillegersberg, Richard van [University Medical Center Utrecht, Department of Surgery, Utrecht (Netherlands); Sangro, Bruno [Clinica Universidad de Navarra-IDISNA and CIBEREHD, Liver Unit, Pamplona (Spain); Kao, Yung Hsiang [Cabrini Hospital, Department of Nuclear Medicine, Melbourne (Australia); Liu, Dave [Vancouver General Hospital, University of British Columbia, Department of Radiology, Vancouver, British Columbia (Canada); Louie, John D.; Sze, Daniel Y. [Stanford University Medical Center, Division of Interventional Radiology, Stanford (United States); Rose, Steven C. [University of California, Department of Radiology, San Diego (United States); Brown, Daniel B. [Vanderbilt University, Medical Center North, Department of Radiology, Nashville (United States); Ahmadzadehfar, Hojjat [University Hospital Bonn, Department of Nuclear Medicine, Bonn (Germany); Kim, Edward [Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, Division of Vascular and Interventional Radiology, New York (United States)

    2017-12-15

    Guidelines on how to adjust activity in patients with a history of liver surgery who are undergoing yttrium-90 radioembolisation ({sup 90}Y-RE) are lacking. The aim was to study the variability in activity prescription in these patients, between centres with extensive experience using resin microspheres {sup 90}Y-RE, and to draw recommendations on activity prescription based on an expert consensus. The variability in activity prescription between centres was investigated by a survey of international experts in the field of {sup 90}Y-RE. Six representative post-surgical patients (i.e. comparable activity prescription, different outcome) were selected. Information on patients' disease characteristics and data needed for activity calculation was presented to the expert panel. Reported was the used method for activity prescription and whether, how and why activity reduction was found indicated. Ten experts took part in the survey. Recommendations on activity reduction were highly variable between the expert panel. The median intra-patient range was 44 Gy (range 18-55 Gy). Reductions in prescribed activity were recommended in 68% of the cases. In consensus, a maximum D{sub Target} of 50 Gy was recommended. With a current lack of guidelines, large variability in activity prescription in post-surgical patients undergoing {sup 90}Y-RE exists. In consensus, D{sub Target} ≤50 Gy is recommended. (orig.)

  2. Recommendations for radioembolisation after liver surgery using yttrium-90 resin microspheres based on a survey of an international expert panel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samim, Morsal; Veenendaal, Linde M. van; Braat, Manon N.G.J.A.; Hoven, Andor F. van den; Bosch, Maurice A.A.J. van den; Lam, Marnix G.E.H.; Hillegersberg, Richard van; Sangro, Bruno; Kao, Yung Hsiang; Liu, Dave; Louie, John D.; Sze, Daniel Y.; Rose, Steven C.; Brown, Daniel B.; Ahmadzadehfar, Hojjat; Kim, Edward

    2017-01-01

    Guidelines on how to adjust activity in patients with a history of liver surgery who are undergoing yttrium-90 radioembolisation ( 90 Y-RE) are lacking. The aim was to study the variability in activity prescription in these patients, between centres with extensive experience using resin microspheres 90 Y-RE, and to draw recommendations on activity prescription based on an expert consensus. The variability in activity prescription between centres was investigated by a survey of international experts in the field of 90 Y-RE. Six representative post-surgical patients (i.e. comparable activity prescription, different outcome) were selected. Information on patients' disease characteristics and data needed for activity calculation was presented to the expert panel. Reported was the used method for activity prescription and whether, how and why activity reduction was found indicated. Ten experts took part in the survey. Recommendations on activity reduction were highly variable between the expert panel. The median intra-patient range was 44 Gy (range 18-55 Gy). Reductions in prescribed activity were recommended in 68% of the cases. In consensus, a maximum D Target of 50 Gy was recommended. With a current lack of guidelines, large variability in activity prescription in post-surgical patients undergoing 90 Y-RE exists. In consensus, D Target ≤50 Gy is recommended. (orig.)

  3. Evolving Expert Knowledge Bases: Applications of Crowdsourcing and Serious Gaming to Advance Knowledge Development for Intelligent Tutoring Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Floryan, Mark

    2013-01-01

    This dissertation presents a novel effort to develop ITS technologies that adapt by observing student behavior. In particular, we define an evolving expert knowledge base (EEKB) that structures a domain's information as a set of nodes and the relationships that exist between those nodes. The structure of this model is not the particularly novel…

  4. Clinical Guidelines for Management of Bone Health in Rett Syndrome Based on Expert Consensus and Available Evidence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jefferson, Amanda; Leonard, Helen; Siafarikas, Aris

    2016-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: We developed clinical guidelines for the management of bone health in Rett syndrome through evidence review and the consensus of an expert panel of clinicians. METHODS: An initial guidelines draft was created which included statements based upon literature review and 11 open-ended que...

  5. On the use of the analytic hierarchy process in the aggregation of expert judgments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zio, E.

    1996-01-01

    Expert judgments are involved in many aspects of scientific research, either formally or informally. In order to combine the different opinions elicited, simple aggregation methods have often been used with the result that expert biases, interexpert dependencies and other factors which might affect the judgments of the experts are often ignored. A more comprehensive approach, based on the analytic hierarchy process, is proposed in this paper to account for the large variety of factors influencing the experts. A structured hierarchy is constructed to decompose the overall problem in the elementary factors that can influence the expert's judgements. The importance of the different elements of the hierarchy is then assessed by pairwise comparison. The overall approach is simple, presents a systematic character and offers a good degree of flexibility. The approach provides the decision maker with a tool to quantitatively measure the significance of the judgments provided by the different experts involved in the elicitation. The resulting values can be used as weights in an aggregation scheme such as, for example, the simple weighted averaging scheme. Two applications of the approach are presented with reference to case studies of formal expert judgment elicitation previously analyzed in literature: the elicitation of the pressure increment in the containment building of the Sequoyah nuclear power plant following reactor vessel breach, and the prediction of the future changes in precipitation in the vicinity of Yucca Mountain

  6. Development of Learning Models Based on Problem Solving and Meaningful Learning Standards by Expert Validity for Animal Development Course

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lufri, L.; Fitri, R.; Yogica, R.

    2018-04-01

    The purpose of this study is to produce a learning model based on problem solving and meaningful learning standards by expert assessment or validation for the course of Animal Development. This research is a development research that produce the product in the form of learning model, which consist of sub product, namely: the syntax of learning model and student worksheets. All of these products are standardized through expert validation. The research data is the level of validity of all sub products obtained using questionnaire, filled by validators from various field of expertise (field of study, learning strategy, Bahasa). Data were analysed using descriptive statistics. The result of the research shows that the problem solving and meaningful learning model has been produced. Sub products declared appropriate by expert include the syntax of learning model and student worksheet.

  7. Superior Administrative Court Lueneburg. Judgement of January 20, 1982 (Kruemmel)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1983-01-01

    This judgement of the OVG Lueneburg (Sup. Adm. Court) decided over the action for annulment of the second part-construction permit for Kruemmel nuclear power plant. Upon the action of the appellant, the OVG partly cancelled the ''design concept license'' for the nuclear power plant and, regarding the remaining items of the appeal, dismissed the appeal. The Court decided that the license for a nuclear power plant design concept is binding for a licensing authority in as much as the following part-construction permits have to be based on the fulfilment of section 7, sub-section 2, no. 3 of the Atomic Energy Act, as far as the plant components to be licensed comply with the licensed concept and are not subject to the conditions of section 17, sub-sections 2-5 of the Atomic Energy Act. This binding effect at the same time leads to the possibility of third parties being affected. (HP) [de

  8. A human error probability estimate methodology based on fuzzy inference and expert judgment on nuclear plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nascimento, C.S. do; Mesquita, R.N. de

    2009-01-01

    Recent studies point human error as an important factor for many industrial and nuclear accidents: Three Mile Island (1979), Bhopal (1984), Chernobyl and Challenger (1986) are classical examples. Human contribution to these accidents may be better understood and analyzed by using Human Reliability Analysis (HRA), which has being taken as an essential part on Probabilistic Safety Analysis (PSA) of nuclear plants. Both HRA and PSA depend on Human Error Probability (HEP) for a quantitative analysis. These probabilities are extremely affected by the Performance Shaping Factors (PSF), which has a direct effect on human behavior and thus shape HEP according with specific environment conditions and personal individual characteristics which are responsible for these actions. This PSF dependence raises a great problem on data availability as turn these scarcely existent database too much generic or too much specific. Besides this, most of nuclear plants do not keep historical records of human error occurrences. Therefore, in order to overcome this occasional data shortage, a methodology based on Fuzzy Inference and expert judgment was employed in this paper in order to determine human error occurrence probabilities and to evaluate PSF's on performed actions by operators in a nuclear power plant (IEA-R1 nuclear reactor). Obtained HEP values were compared with reference tabled data used on current literature in order to show method coherence and valid approach. This comparison leads to a conclusion that this work results are able to be employed both on HRA and PSA enabling efficient prospection of plant safety conditions, operational procedures and local working conditions potential improvements (author)

  9. A Web Based Sweet Orange Crop Expert System using Rule Based System and Artificial Bee Colony Optimization Algorithm

    OpenAIRE

    Prof.M.S.Prasad Babu,; Mrs.J.Anitha,; K.Hari Krishna

    2010-01-01

    Citrus fruits have a prominent place among popular and exclusively grown tropical and sub-tropical fruits. Their nature ,multifold nutritional and medicinal values have made them so important. Sweet Orange Crop expert advisory system is aimed at a collaborative venture with eminent Agriculture Scientist and Experts in the area of Sweet Orange Plantation with an excellent team of computer Engineers, Programmers and designers. This Expert System contains two main parts one is Sweet Orange Infor...

  10. CLIPS/Ada: An Ada-based tool for building expert systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, W. A.

    1990-01-01

    Clips/Ada is a production system language and a development environment. It is functionally equivalent to the CLIPS tool. CLIPS/Ada was developed in order to provide a means of incorporating expert system technology into projects where the use of the Ada language had been mandated. A secondary purpose was to glean information about the Ada language and its compilers. Specifically, whether or not the language and compilers were mature enough to support AI applications. The CLIPS/Ada tool is coded entirely in Ada and is designed to be used by Ada systems that require expert reasoning.

  11. Considerations Regarding the Expert Systems in the Economy and the Use Method of the Production Systems Based on Rules

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eugenia IANCU

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available As it is known, the expert systems- particularlyreferring to the ones in the economical area, represent a currentissue of our days, them being approached by all the economicalbranches. Starting from these aspects, we wish to present somenecessary principles and considerations regarding the expertsystems, representation of the facts, systems based onproduction rules. The objective of this paper is aimed toidentifying the exigencies of the production system based onrules.

  12. Assessment of giant panda habitat based on integration of expert system and neural network

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Liu, X.; Skidmore, A.K.; Bronsveld, M.C.

    2006-01-01

    To conserve giant panda effectively, it is important to understand the spatial pattern and temporal change of its habitat. Mapping is an effective approach for wildlife habitat evaluation and monitoring. The application of recently developed artificial intelligence tools, including expert systems

  13. Overall welfare assessment of pregnant sow housing systems based on interviews with experts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bracke, M.B.M.; Metz, J.H.M.; Spruijt, B.M.; Dijkhuizen, A.A.

    1999-01-01

    In interviews with 11 pig experts the main housing systems for pregnant sows were identified as tethering (T), individual housing in stalls (IS), group housing with stalls (GS), trickle feeding or biofix (B), electronic sow feeding (ESF), and outdoor housing with huts (O). The family pen system

  14. Insulation diagnosis of rotating machines for elevators by an expert system based on fuzzy inference. Fuzzy suiron wo donyushita expert system ni yoru shokokiyo kaitenki no zetsuen shindan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kaneko, K.; Oshima, H. (Tokai Univ., Tokyo (Japan)); Yamada, N.; Iijima, T. (Mitsubishi Electric Building Techno-Service Co. Ltd., Tokyo (Japan))

    1992-11-20

    Using the data measured with the insulation deterioration diagnostic system for rotating machines for elevators, which is newly developed utilizing the past experience, an expert system which enables insulation deterioration diagnosis even by field maintenance engineers to some extent. In this system, the knowledge and experience of specialists are loaded in a personal computer as the rule for insulation deterioration diagnosis to perform insulation deterioration diagnosis by fuzzy inference and 'hypothesis-verification' type backward reasoning inference. The structured expert system is outlined. The result of insulation diagnosis by this system s compared with that made by specialists to evaluate the effectiveness of the diagnosed result of this system, and shows 84% agreement with the results obtained by specialists. It is, therefore, considered to be a highly practical expert system. 10 refs., 7 figs., 1 tab.

  15. Evaluating future detriment from radioactive discharges: Judgements and implications for optimisation of protection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fleishman, A.B.; Clark, M.J.

    1982-04-01

    For long-lived nuclides released into the environment, it is possible to calculate dose commitments extending over thousands or millions of years. The inclusion of this detriment to future populations in present day decision-making is not a technical matter, but represents an area where judgement must be applied. This report shows how different judgements on the relative valuation of future doses can have significant implications for the management of radioactive effluents. A quantitative framework for the expression of such judgements is proposed for optimisation studies, to clarify for decision-makers these implications in the assessment of alternative management options. This is based on the economic principles of discounting, but is related to the use of incomplete collective dose commitments (truncated in time), and includes a zero discount rate which assigns the same weight to doses whenever received. The framework is applied to a series of potential management options for the control of carbon-14, krypton-85 and iodine-129 arising from a notional fuel reprocessing plant. Using published data on plant costs and a range of costs of unit collective dose, the sensitivity of 'optimum' options to variations in discount rates is analysed. A number of general conclusions are drawn from the results but the optimisation is intended for illustrative purposes, and therefore cannot be used to reach judgements on the desirability of implementing specific effluent controls. This work was partially funded by the Commission of the European Communities. (author)

  16. Oil palm fresh fruit bunch ripeness classification based on rule- based expert system of ROI image processing technique results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alfatni, M S M; Shariff, A R M; Marhaban, M H; Shafie, S B; Saaed, O M B; Abdullah, M Z; BAmiruddin, M D

    2014-01-01

    There is a processing need for a fast, easy and accurate classification system for oil palm fruit ripeness. Such a system will be invaluable to farmers and plantation managers who need to sell their oil palm fresh fruit bunch (FFB) for the mill as this will avoid disputes. In this paper,a new approach was developed under the name of expert rules-based systembased on the image processing techniques results of thethree different oil palm FFB region of interests (ROIs), namely; ROI1 (300x300 pixels), ROI2 (50x50 pixels) and ROI3 (100x100 pixels). The results show that the best rule-based ROIs for statistical colour feature extraction with k-nearest neighbors (KNN) classifier at 94% were chosen as well as the ROIs that indicated results higher than the rule-based outcome, such as the ROIs of statistical colour feature extraction with artificial neural network (ANN) classifier at 94%, were selected for further FFB ripeness inspection system

  17. Furthering patient adherence: a position paper of the international expert forum on patient adherence based on an internet forum discussion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Dulmen, Sandra; Sluijs, Emmy; van Dijk, Liset; de Ridder, Denise; Heerdink, Rob; Bensing, Jozien

    2008-02-27

    As the problem of patient non-adherence persists and a solution appears hard to be found, it continues to be important to look for new ways to further the issue. We recently conducted a meta-review of adherence intervention studies which yielded a preliminary agenda for future research, practice and theory development in patient adherence. The objective of the present project was to find out to what extent adherence experts consider this agenda relevant and feasible. The thirty-five corresponding authors of the review studies included in the meta-review were invited to join the International Expert Forum on Patient Adherence and to participate in a four-week web-based focus group discussion. The discussion was triggered by the points on the preliminary agenda presented as propositions to which forum members could react. Two researchers analysed the transcripts and selected relevant phrases. Twenty adherence experts participated. Various ideas and viewpoints were raised. After the closure of the web-site, the expert forum was asked to authorize the synthesis of the discussion, to list the propositions in order of priority and to answer a few questions on the use of the web-based focus group as a tool to obtain expert opinions. Their ranking showed that the development of simple interventions is the most promising step to take in fostering patient adherence, preferably within a multidisciplinary setting of medical, pharmaceutical, social and technical science and, not in the least, by incorporating patients' perspectives. For enhancing adherence, the development of simple interventions originating from a multidisciplinary perspective including patients' input, appears most promising. Disclosing patients' perspectives requires open communication about patients' expectations, needs and experiences in taking medication and about what might help them to become and remain adherent.

  18. Furthering patient adherence: A position paper of the international expert forum on patient adherence based on an internet forum discussion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Heerdink Rob

    2008-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background As the problem of patient non-adherence persists and a solution appears hard to be found, it continues to be important to look for new ways to further the issue. We recently conducted a meta-review of adherence intervention studies which yielded a preliminary agenda for future research, practice and theory development in patient adherence. The objective of the present project was to find out to what extent adherence experts consider this agenda relevant and feasible. Methods The thirty-five corresponding authors of the review studies included in the meta-review were invited to join the International Expert Forum on Patient Adherence and to participate in a four-week web-based focus group discussion. The discussion was triggered by the points on the preliminary agenda presented as propositions to which forum members could react. Two researchers analysed the transcripts and selected relevant phrases. Results Twenty adherence experts participated. Various ideas and viewpoints were raised. After the closure of the web-site, the expert forum was asked to authorize the synthesis of the discussion, to list the propositions in order of priority and to answer a few questions on the use of the web-based focus group as a tool to obtain expert opinions. Their ranking showed that the development of simple interventions is the most promising step to take in fostering patient adherence, preferably within a multidisciplinary setting of medical, pharmaceutical, social and technical science and, not in the least, by incorporating patients' perspectives. Conclusion For enhancing adherence, the development of simple interventions originating from a multidisciplinary perspective including patients' input, appears most promising. Disclosing patients' perspectives requires open communication about patients' expectations, needs and experiences in taking medication and about what might help them to become and remain adherent.

  19. Modeling the Construct of an Expert Evidence-Adaptive Knowledge Base for a Pressure Injury Clinical Decision Support System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peck Chui Betty Khong

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The selection of appropriate wound products for the treatment of pressure injuries is paramount in promoting wound healing. However, nurses find it difficult to decide on the most optimal wound product(s due to limited live experiences in managing pressure injuries resulting from successfully implemented pressure injury prevention programs. The challenges of effective decision-making in wound treatments by nurses at the point of care are compounded by the yearly release of wide arrays of newly researched wound products into the consumer market. A clinical decision support system for pressure injury (PI-CDSS was built to facilitate effective decision-making and selection of optimal wound treatments. This paper describes the development of PI-CDSS with an expert knowledge base using an interactive development environment, Blaze Advisor. A conceptual framework using decision-making and decision theory, knowledge representation, and process modelling guided the construct of the PI-CDSS. This expert system has incorporated the practical and relevant decision knowledge of wound experts in assessment and wound treatments in its algorithm. The construct of the PI-CDSS is adaptive, with scalable capabilities for expansion to include other CDSSs and interoperability to interface with other existing clinical and administrative systems. The algorithm was formatively evaluated and tested for usability. The treatment modalities generated after using patient-specific assessment data were found to be consistent with the treatment plan(s proposed by the wound experts. The overall agreement exceeded 90% between the wound experts and the generated treatment modalities for the choice of wound products, instructions, and alerts. The PI-CDSS serves as a just-in-time wound treatment protocol with suggested clinical actions for nurses, based on the best evidence available.

  20. An Expert-Based Assessment Model for Evaluating Habitat Suitability of Pond-Breeding Amphibians

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shin-Ruoh Juang

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Farm ponds are important habitats for amphibians, birds, and other wildlife. In Taiwan, artificial ponds were originally created on farmlands for irrigation purposes and the needs of the domestic water supply. Although pond creation is a typical farming practice, it also provides habitats for pond-breeding amphibians. Thus, it is essential to understand the current status of habitats and their vulnerability regarding urgent conservation needs for target species. Günther’s frog (Hylarana guentheri, a pond-breeding amphibian, has a high sensitivity towards surrounding environmental changes, and can be used as an indicator species to assess habitat suitability. The purpose of this study is to establish a systematic framework to assess the habitat suitability of pond-breeding amphibians by using Günther’s frog as a pilot-study species. First, we collected frog survey data from Chiayi, Taiwan, from winter 2013 to spring 2015, and investigated the present status of the environmental conditions around the ponds. Next, expert questionnaires and the fuzzy Delphi method were applied to establish the hierarchical evaluation criteria regarding the habitat suitability assessment. Four indicators: the aquatic environments of farm ponds; the terrestrial environments around ponds; landscape connectivity; and the conservation perceptions of the residents, were determined as first-layer factors in the assessment criteria, while ten other indicators were defined as second-layer factors. Based on the established assessment criteria, we performed in situ habitat suitability evaluations on 69 selected sites and surveyed the perceptions of the residents using questionnaires. Results revealed that 19% of locations were rich in frog species with a high habitat suitability. However, 67% of locations showed signs of habitat degradation, which may imply a higher need in practicing habitat improvement or restoration. The Kappa value was 0.6061, which indicated a high

  1. Use of questionnaires and an expert panel to judge the environmental consequences of chemical spills for the development of an environment-accident index.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andersson, Asa Scott; Stjernström, Olof; Fängmark, Ingrid

    2005-05-01

    Assessing the environmental consequences of a chemical accident is a complex task. To date, the methods used to evaluate the environmental effects of an acute release of a chemical have often been based on measurements of chemical and physical variables deemed to be important, such as the concentration of the chemical. However, a broader strategy is needed to predict the environmental consequences of potential accidents during the planning process. An Environment-Accident Index (EAI), a simple tool based on such a strategy, has been developed to facilitate the consideration of a multitude of influential variables. The objectives of this study were to evaluate whether questionnaire-based expert panel's judgements could provide useful data on the environmental consequences of chemical spills, and an effective basis for further development of the EAI. As expected, the judgements did not agree perfectly, but they do give rough indications of the environmental effects, and highlight consistent trends that should be useful inputs for planning, prevention and decontamination processes. The different accidents were also judged to have caused everything from minor to very major effects in the environment, implying that a wide range of accident scenarios were represented in the material and covered by the EAI. Therefore, questionnaires and expert panel judgements can be used to collect useful data for estimating the likely environmental consequences of chemical accidents and for further development of the EAI.

  2. Development of reflective judgement in the pre-doctoral dental clinical curriculum.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyd, L D

    2008-08-01

    When dental students begin patient care in the clinical curriculum, they are required to move from the well-defined problems of the classroom to the more ambiguous and real life problems encountered in the context of patient care in the clinical setting. This change in learning environment requires development of reflective thinking. Reflective thinking refers to the process of thinking about uncertainty or ill-defined problems. King and Kitchener refer to the outcome of the reflective thinking process as reflective judgement. The purpose of this study was to explore the development of reflective judgement in the initial phase of the clinical curriculum. This exploratory study used a case study approach with qualitative methods. A convenience sample of third year predoctoral dental students (n = 16) volunteered to participate in writing a clinic journal and semi-structured interviews at three time points over a time period of one year. Student compliance in writing clinical journals was poor; therefore the qualitative data was primarily gathered from interview transcripts. The qualitative interview data were analysed using a coding scheme based on King and Kitchener's Reflective Judgement Model of Intellectual Development. The Cronbach alpha was 0.76 for reliability of the coding scheme. Based on the analysis of interview data, the there was an average growth in reflective judgement over the year from Stage 4.89 to 5.59 for an overall change of +0.70. Additional research is needed to explore the growth in reflective judgement over the final year of the clinical curriculum as well as to identify the most effective educational strategies to facilitate growth in reflective judgment.

  3. Expert systems: An overview

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Verdejo, F.

    1985-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to introduce readers to the basic principles of rule-based expert systems. Four topics are discussed in subsequent sections: (1) Definition; (2) Structure of an expert system; (3) State of the art and (4) Impact and future research. (orig.)

  4. Expert Witness

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Adele

    formal rules of evidence apply) to help it understand the issues of a case and ... statements on medical expert witness by professional representative bodies in .... determining the size of the financial settlement that may have to be made to the.

  5. Beta adrenergic blockade reduces utilitarian judgement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sylvia, Terbeck; Guy, Kahane; Sarah, McTavish; Julian, Savulescu; Neil, Levy; Miles, Hewstone; Cowen, Philip J.

    2013-01-01

    Noradrenergic pathways are involved in mediating the central and peripheral effects of physiological arousal. The aim of the present study was to investigate the role of noradrenergic transmission in moral decision-making. We studied the effects in healthy volunteers of propranolol (a noradrenergic beta-adrenoceptor antagonist) on moral judgement in a set of moral dilemmas pitting utilitarian outcomes (e.g., saving five lives) against highly aversive harmful actions (e.g., killing an innocent person) in a double-blind, placebo-controlled, parallel group design. Propranolol (40 mg orally) significantly reduced heart rate, but had no effect on self-reported mood. Importantly, propranolol made participants more likely to judge harmful actions as morally unacceptable, but only in dilemmas where harms were ‘up close and personal’. In addition, longer response times for such personal dilemmas were only found for the placebo group. Finally, judgments in personal dilemmas by the propranolol group were more decisive. These findings indicate that noradrenergic pathways play a role in responses to moral dilemmas, in line with recent work implicating emotion in moral decision-making. However, contrary to current theorising, these findings also suggest that aversion to harming is not driven by emotional arousal. Our findings are also of significant practical interest given that propranolol is a widely used drug in different settings, and is currently being considered as a potential treatment for post-traumatic stress disorder in military and rescue service personnel. PMID:23085134

  6. THE BOTS EXPERTS BASED ON THE PROCEDURAL KNOWLEDGE CREATION INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Володимир Олександрович ТІМОФЄЄВ

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Now the world web answers the questions "who?", "what?", "where?" and "when?" fast and completely. But not the question "how?", especially "how to settle emergency situation?” (which refers to procedural knowledge usually, private user’s advice from various forums is employed as the response. And this is despite the real boom of bots - programs that mimic human action through the Internet interfaces and of the so-called chatbots, that are the programs to provide answers within individual sites. The differences in knowledge representation forms make it impossible to use existing chatbot creation information technologies for dissemination the procedural knowledge in the bot-experts form via Internet. For the problem solution, the original information technology is offered. The article is addressed to IT-specialists, experts in various areas and to heads of the enterprises to use for creating the Internet consulting business or to solve organizational problems in an existing business.

  7. A comparison of CLIPS- and LISP-based approaches to the development of a real-time expert system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frainier, R.; Groleau, N.; Bhatnagar, R.; Lam, C.; Compton, M.; Colombano, S.; Lai, S.; Szolovits, P.; Manahan, M.; Statler, I.

    1990-01-01

    This paper describes an ongoing expert system development effort started in 1988 which is evaluating both CLIPS- and LISP- based approaches. The expert system is being developed to a project schedule and is planned for flight on Space Shuttle Mission SLS-2 in 1992. The expert system will help astronauts do the best possible science for a vestibular physiology experiment already scheduled for that mission. The system gathers and reduces data from the experiment, flags 'interesting' results, and proposes changes in the experiment both to exploit the in-flight observations and to stay within the time allowed by Mission Control for the experiment. These tasks must all be performed in real time. Two Apple Macintosh computers are used. The CLIPS- and LISP- based environments are layered above the Macintosh computer Operating System. The 'CLIPS-based' environment includes CLIPS and HyperCard. The LlSP-based environment includes Common LISP, Parmenides (a frame system), and FRuleKit (a rule system). Important evaluation factors include ease of programming, performance against real-time requirements, usability by an astronaut, robustness, and ease of maintenance. Current results on the factors of ease of programming, performance against real-time requirements, and ease of maintenance are discussed.

  8. Knowledge based expert system to minimise environmental pollution in Malaysian construction sites

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Al-Hadu, Ibrahiem Abdul Razak; Sidek, Lariyah Mohd; Desa, Mohamad Nor Mohamad [Civil Engineering, Universiti Tenaga Nasional, Kajang, Selangor (Malaysia); Basri, Noor Ezlin Ahmad [Civil Engineering, Universiti Tenaga Nasional, Kajang, Selangor (Malaysia)

    2011-07-01

    Construction activities generate enormous amount of erosion and sediments sediments that is the result of soil disturbance during construction activities, thus, will pollute the adjacent water bodies and make it unfeasible for different uses. This paper aimed to develop and create the main features of an expert system prototype (ESCES) for minimising erosion and sedimentation due to stormwater generated from the construction activities by recommending a feasible BMPs. Multi criteria Analysis (MCA) technique has been integrated so as to select the best control measure among many stormwater control alternatives. A questionnaire has been distributed to the relevant experts so as to rank the stormwater control measures to be used in the MCA technique. Using Visual Basic 6, Graphical User Interfaces (GUIs) were developed. The knowledge and experience were acquired from various textural sources (i.e. guidelines, manuals, literature, and human expert). Results from this study showed that the Best Management Practices (BMPs) reommended have good suited the site characteristics. As a conclusion from this study, the ESCES can be considered as part of the 'Green Technology Tool' since it helps in protecting the environment and preserve good quality of water adjacent to the construction sites in Malaysia.

  9. A rule-based expert system for control rod pattern of boiling water reactors by hovering around haling exposure shape

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kao, P.-W.; Lin, L.-S.; Yang, J.-T.

    2004-01-01

    Feasible strategies for automatic BWR control rod pattern generation have been implemented in a rule-based expert system. These strategies are majorly based on a concept for which exposure distributions are hovering around the Haling exposure distribution through a cycle while radial and axial power distributions are dominantly controlled by some abstracted factors indicating the desired distributions. The system can either automatically generate expert-level control rod patterns or search for criteria-satisfied patterns originated from user's input. It has successfully been demonstrated by generating control rod patterns for the the 1775 MWth Chinshan plant in Unit I Cycle 13 alternate loading pattern and Unit 2 Cycle 8 but with longer cycle length. All rod patterns for two cycles result in all-rod-out at EOC and no violation against the four criteria. The demonstrations show that the system is considerably good in choosing initial trial rod patterns and adjusting rod patterns to satisfy the design criteria. (author)

  10. Influence of experience and qualification on PET-based target volume delineation. When there is no expert - ask your colleague

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Doll, C.; Grosu, A.L.; Nestle, U.; Duncker-Rohr, V.; Ruecker, G.; Mix, M.; MacManus, M.; Ruysscher, D. de; Vogel, W.; Eriksen, J.G.; Oyen, W.; Weber, W.

    2014-01-01

    The integration of positron emission tomography (PET) information for target volume delineation in radiation treatment planning is routine in many centers. In contrast to automatic contouring, research on visual-manual delineation is scarce. The present study investigates the dependency of manual delineation on experience and qualification. A total of 44 international interdisciplinary observers each defined a [ 18 F]fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG)-PET based gross tumor volume (GTV) using the same PET/CT scan from a patient with lung cancer. The observers were ''experts'' (E; n = 3), ''experienced interdisciplinary pairs'' (EP; 9 teams of radiation oncologist (RO) + nuclear medicine physician (NP)), ''single field specialists'' (SFS; n = 13), and ''students'' (S; n = 10). Five automatic delineation methods (AM) were also included. Volume sizes and concordance indices within the groups (pCI) and relative to the experts (eCI) were calculated. E (pCI = 0.67) and EP (pCI = 0.53) showed a significantly higher agreement within the groups as compared to SFS (pCI = 0.43, p = 0.03, and p = 0.006). In relation to the experts, EP (eCI = 0.55) showed better concordance compared to SFS (eCI = 0.49) or S (eCI = 0.47). The intermethod variability of the AM (pCI = 0.44) was similar to that of SFS and S, showing poorer agreement with the experts (eCI = 0.35). The results suggest that interdisciplinary cooperation could be beneficial for consistent contouring. Joint delineation by a radiation oncologist and a nuclear medicine physician showed remarkable agreement and better concordance with the experts compared to other specialists. The relevant intermethod variability of the automatic algorithms underlines the need for further standardization and optimization in this field. (orig.) [de

  11. Identification and management of comorbidity in psoriatic arthritis: evidence- and expert-based recommendations from a multidisciplinary panel from Spain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torre-Alonso, Juan Carlos; Carmona, Loreto; Moreno, Mireia; Galíndez, Eva; Babío, Jesús; Zarco, Pedro; Linares, Luis; Collantes-Estevez, Eduardo; Barrial, Manuel Fernández; Hermosa, Juan Carlos; Coto, Pablo; Suárez, Carmen; Almodóvar, Raquel; Luelmo, Jesús; Castañeda, Santos; Gratacós, Jordi

    2017-08-01

    The objective is to establish recommendations, based on evidence and expert opinion, for the identification and management of comorbidities in patients with psoriatic arthritis (PsA). The following techniques were applied: discussion group, systematic review, and Delphi survey for agreement. A panel of professionals from four specialties defined the users, the sections of the document, possible recommendations, and what systematic reviews should be performed. A second discussion was held with the results of the systematic reviews. Recommendations were formulated in the second meeting and voted online from 1 (total disagreement) to 10 (total agreement). Agreement was considered if at least 70% voted ≥7. The level of evidence and grade of recommendation were assigned using the Oxford Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine guidance. The full document was critically appraised by the experts, and the project was supervised at all times by a methodologist. In a final step, the document was reviewed and commented by a patient and a health management specialist. Fourteen recommendations were produced, together with a checklist to facilitate the implementation. The items with the largest support from evidence were those related to cardiovascular disease and risk factors. The panel recommends paying special attention to obesity, smoking, and alcohol consumption, as they are all modifiable factors with an impact on treatment response or complications of PsA. Psychological and organizational aspects were also deemed important. We herein suggest practical recommendations for the management of comorbidities in PsA based on evidence and expert opinion.

  12. A conceptual framework to facilitate clinical judgement in nursing: A ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Anna Catharina van Graan

    dent, critical thinking nurses who can cope with diversity in a creative way and define their role in a complex, ... Previous research (concept analysis of clinical judgement and focus group ...... African and international journal databases: EBSCO ...

  13. Wisdom and narrative: Dealing with complexity and judgement in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Wisdom and narrative: Dealing with complexity and judgement in translator education. ... This article explores wisdom as concept to guide translator education in institutions of higher education. It uses the work ... AJOL African Journals Online.

  14. Implications of social judgement theory for persuasive advertising ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Implications of social judgement theory for persuasive advertising campaigns. ... The way the consumers perceive an advertising campaign will, therefore, determine how they will respond to the advertisement. ... AJOL African Journals Online.

  15. PROFESSIONAL JUDGEMENT. THE KEY TO A SUCCESSFUL AUDIT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anca Oana CHIȘ

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Professional judgement represents the key to a succesful audit engagement. In order for the auditors to use their professional judgment correctly, they must know the rules and standards, both those related to accounting and audit.ISA 200 emphasizes the importance of exercising professional judgment in the planning phase and in the auditor's audit work. Judgment is exercised by an auditor whose training, knowledge and experience have assisted in developing the skills needed to achieve reasonable judgments. The article is a theoretical one, its main objective being the study of professional judgement in audit engagements. Professional judgment was analyzed using a qualitative research methodology, taking into considerationdefinitions from auditing standards and presenting the work of researchers all over the world, while emphasizing specific situations in which judgement is used. Our study draws the attention to the importance of the professional judgement during audit and the obligation of each auditor to use it appropriately.

  16. using subjective judgement to determine the validity of a tutorial

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2008-11-21

    Nov 21, 2008 ... methodological aspects of subjective judgement will follow in the place of conventional .... Volunteers to undertake tasks. 3. Identifies learning ... Integrates legislation, ethics, social and physical sciences. 5. Evaluates and ...

  17. Factors influencing societal response of nanotechnology: an expert stakeholder analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gupta, Nidhi, E-mail: nidhi.gupta@wur.nl; Fischer, Arnout R. H., E-mail: arnout.fischer@wur.nl; Lans, Ivo A. van der, E-mail: Ivo.vanderLans@wur.nl [Wageningen University, Marketing and Consumer Behaviour Group (Netherlands); Frewer, Lynn J., E-mail: lynn.frewer@newcastle.ac.uk [Newcastle University, School of Agriculture, Food and Rural Development (United Kingdom)

    2012-05-15

    Nanotechnology can be described as an emerging technology and, as has been the case with other emerging technologies such as genetic modification, different socio-psychological factors will potentially influence societal responses to its development and application. These factors will play an important role in how nanotechnology is developed and commercialised. This article aims to identify expert opinion on factors influencing societal response to applications of nanotechnology. Structured interviews with experts on nanotechnology from North West Europe were conducted using repertory grid methodology in conjunction with generalized Procrustes analysis to examine the psychological constructs underlying societal uptake of 15 key applications of nanotechnology drawn from different areas (e.g. medicine, agriculture and environment, chemical, food, military, sports, and cosmetics). Based on expert judgement, the main factors influencing societal response to different applications of nanotechnology will be the extent to which applications are perceived to be beneficial, useful, and necessary, and how 'real' and physically close to the end-user these applications are perceived to be by the public.

  18. Factors influencing societal response of nanotechnology: an expert stakeholder analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gupta, Nidhi; Fischer, Arnout R. H.; Lans, Ivo A. van der; Frewer, Lynn J.

    2012-01-01

    Nanotechnology can be described as an emerging technology and, as has been the case with other emerging technologies such as genetic modification, different socio-psychological factors will potentially influence societal responses to its development and application. These factors will play an important role in how nanotechnology is developed and commercialised. This article aims to identify expert opinion on factors influencing societal response to applications of nanotechnology. Structured interviews with experts on nanotechnology from North West Europe were conducted using repertory grid methodology in conjunction with generalized Procrustes analysis to examine the psychological constructs underlying societal uptake of 15 key applications of nanotechnology drawn from different areas (e.g. medicine, agriculture and environment, chemical, food, military, sports, and cosmetics). Based on expert judgement, the main factors influencing societal response to different applications of nanotechnology will be the extent to which applications are perceived to be beneficial, useful, and necessary, and how 'real' and physically close to the end-user these applications are perceived to be by the public.

  19. Factors influencing societal response of nanotechnology: an expert stakeholder analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gupta, Nidhi; Fischer, Arnout R. H.; van der Lans, Ivo A.; Frewer, Lynn J.

    2012-05-01

    Nanotechnology can be described as an emerging technology and, as has been the case with other emerging technologies such as genetic modification, different socio-psychological factors will potentially influence societal responses to its development and application. These factors will play an important role in how nanotechnology is developed and commercialised. This article aims to identify expert opinion on factors influencing societal response to applications of nanotechnology. Structured interviews with experts on nanotechnology from North West Europe were conducted using repertory grid methodology in conjunction with generalized Procrustes analysis to examine the psychological constructs underlying societal uptake of 15 key applications of nanotechnology drawn from different areas (e.g. medicine, agriculture and environment, chemical, food, military, sports, and cosmetics). Based on expert judgement, the main factors influencing societal response to different applications of nanotechnology will be the extent to which applications are perceived to be beneficial, useful, and necessary, and how 'real' and physically close to the end-user these applications are perceived to be by the public.

  20. Judgements of agency in schizophrenia: an impairment in autonoetic metacognition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Metcalfe, Janet; Van Snellenberg, Jared X; DeRosse, Pamela; Balsam, Peter; Malhotra, Anil K

    2012-05-19

    We investigated judgements of agency in participants with schizophrenia and healthy controls. Participants engaged in a computer game in which they attempted to touch downward falling Xs and avoid touching Os. On some trials, participants were objectively in perfect control. On other trials, they were objectively not in complete control because the movement of the cursor on the screen was distorted with respect to the position of the mouse by random noise (turbulence), or it was lagged by 250 or 500 ms. Participants made metacognitive judgements of agency as well as judgements of performance. Control participants' judgements of agency were affected by the turbulence and lag variables-indicating that they knew they were objectively not in control in those conditions, and they were also influenced by their assessments of performance. The patients also used their assessments of performance but neither turbulence nor lag affected their judgements of agency. This indicated an impairment in agency monitoring. The patients, unlike the healthy controls, used only publically available external cues about performance in making judgements of 'agency' and did not rely on any additional access to internal self-relevant cues that were diagnostic in indicating whether or not they were, in fact, in control.

  1. The BfR publishes workshop report based on the expert meeting on endocrine disruptors

    OpenAIRE

    German Federal Institute for Risk Assessment

    2016-01-01

    On the occasion of an expert meeting organised by the Federal Institute for Risk Assessment (BfR) held in Berlin on 11 and 12 April 2016, a consensus was reached on the identification of endocrine disruptors. The BfR has now published the workshop report from the conference. It contains, among other things, the consensus paper agreed by all participants. The report is published at http://www.bfr.bund.de/cm/349/scientific-principles-for-the-identification-of-endocrine-disrupting-chemicals-a-co...

  2. Expert judgment based multi-criteria decision model to address uncertainties in risk assessment of nanotechnology-enabled food products

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Flari, Villie; Chaudhry, Qasim; Neslo, Rabin; Cooke, Roger

    2011-01-01

    Currently, risk assessment of nanotechnology-enabled food products is considered difficult due to the large number of uncertainties involved. We developed an approach which could address some of the main uncertainties through the use of expert judgment. Our approach employs a multi-criteria decision model, based on probabilistic inversion that enables capturing experts’ preferences in regard to safety of nanotechnology-enabled food products, and identifying their opinions in regard to the significance of key criteria that are important in determining the safety of such products. An advantage of these sample-based techniques is that they provide out-of-sample validation and therefore a robust scientific basis. This validation in turn adds predictive power to the model developed. We achieved out-of-sample validation in two ways: (1) a portion of the expert preference data was excluded from the model’s fitting and was then predicted by the model fitted on the remaining rankings and (2) a (partially) different set of experts generated new scenarios, using the same criteria employed in the model, and ranked them; their ranks were compared with ranks predicted by the model. The degree of validation in each method was less than perfect but reasonably substantial. The validated model we applied captured and modelled experts’ preferences regarding safety of hypothetical nanotechnology-enabled food products. It appears therefore that such an approach can provide a promising route to explore further for assessing the risk of nanotechnology-enabled food products.

  3. Hospital-based expert model for health technology procurement planning in hospitals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miniati, R; Cecconi, G; Frosini, F; Dori, F; Regolini, J; Iadanza, E; Biffi Gentili, G

    2014-01-01

    Although in the last years technology innovation in healthcare brought big improvements in care level and patient quality of life, hospital complexity and management cost became higher. For this reason, necessity of planning for medical equipment procurement within hospitals is getting more and more important in order to sustainable provide appropriate technology for both routine activity and innovative procedures. In order to support hospital decision makers for technology procurement planning, an expert model was designed as reported in the following paper. It combines the most widely used approaches for technology evaluation by taking into consideration Health Technology Assessment (HTA) and Medical Equipment Replacement Model (MERM). The designing phases include a first definition of prioritization algorithms, then the weighting process through experts' interviews and a final step for the model validation that included both statistical testing and comparison with real decisions. In conclusion, the designed model was able to provide a semi-automated tool that through the use of multidisciplinary information is able to prioritize different requests of technology acquisition in hospitals. Validation outcomes improved the model accuracy and created different "user profiles" according to the specific needs of decision makers.

  4. Real time expert systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Asami, Tohru; Hashimoto, Kazuo; Yamamoto, Seiichi

    1992-01-01

    Recently, aiming at the application to the plant control for nuclear reactors and traffic and communication control, the research and the practical use of the expert system suitable to real time processing have become conspicuous. In this report, the condition for the required function to control the object that dynamically changes within a limited time is presented, and the technical difference between the real time expert system developed so as to satisfy it and the expert system of conventional type is explained with the actual examples and from theoretical aspect. The expert system of conventional type has the technical base in the problem-solving equipment originating in STRIPS. The real time expert system is applied to the fields accompanied by surveillance and control, to which conventional expert system is hard to be applied. The requirement for the real time expert system, the example of the real time expert system, and as the techniques of realizing real time processing, the realization of interruption processing, dispersion processing, and the mechanism of maintaining the consistency of knowledge are explained. (K.I.)

  5. Group elicitations yield more consistent, yet more uncertain experts in understanding risks to ecosystem services in New Zealand bays

    KAUST Repository

    Singh, Gerald G.; Sinner, Jim; Ellis, Joanne; Kandlikar, Milind; Halpern, Benjamin S.; Satterfield, Terre; Chan, Kai

    2017-01-01

    The elicitation of expert judgment is an important tool for assessment of risks and impacts in environmental management contexts, and especially important as decision-makers face novel challenges where prior empirical research is lacking or insufficient. Evidence-driven elicitation approaches typically involve techniques to derive more accurate probability distributions under fairly specific contexts. Experts are, however, prone to overconfidence in their judgements. Group elicitations with diverse experts can reduce expert overconfidence by allowing cross-examination and reassessment of prior judgements, but groups are also prone to uncritical

  6. Group elicitations yield more consistent, yet more uncertain experts in understanding risks to ecosystem services in New Zealand bays

    KAUST Repository

    Singh, Gerald G.

    2017-08-02

    The elicitation of expert judgment is an important tool for assessment of risks and impacts in environmental management contexts, and especially important as decision-makers face novel challenges where prior empirical research is lacking or insufficient. Evidence-driven elicitation approaches typically involve techniques to derive more accurate probability distributions under fairly specific contexts. Experts are, however, prone to overconfidence in their judgements. Group elicitations with diverse experts can reduce expert overconfidence by allowing cross-examination and reassessment of prior judgements, but groups are also prone to uncritical

  7. Quantifying characteristics of information-technology applications based on expert knowledge for detection of oestrus and mastitis in dairy cows.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Asseldonk, M A; Huirne, R B; Dijkhuizen, A A

    1998-10-09

    Expert opinions were elicited about the characteristics at the commercial-farm level of on-line information technology (IT) applications that are able to detect oestrus and mastitis in dairy cows. Since actual data of these characteristics are not available, judgmental data provided an alternative means to interpret the implications of research results for commercial farms. Applications included were activity measurement, milk-production measurement, electrical conductivity of quarter milk, automated concentrate feeders and milk-temperature measurement. Sensitivity and specificity of detection of oestrus (OD), clinical-mastitis (CMD) and subclinical-mastitis (SCMD) were ascertained. Conjoint-analysis was used to assess the effect of each application indirectly by decomposing the evaluated overall detection characteristics of a predefined number of IT combinations. The individual experts were consistent in evaluating the alternatives, but there was variation in estimates among experts. Estimations of the main effects of the applications and important first-order interactions were incorporated into the detection models. Implementation of all applications under study resulted in overall sensitivities and specificities of 82% and 90%, 73% and 87%, 58% and 82% for OD, CMD and SCMD, respectively. Further research is necessary that should take into account costs and benefits of the different detection systems based on the current status of farm performance (e.g. OD and mastitis incidence) and farm structure (e.g. farm size, years in operation of the milking parlour and parlour layout). Research to do this is currently in progress.

  8. Natural representation of the deduction; applying to the temporal reasoning for expert systems based on production rules

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baudin, Patrick

    1990-01-01

    The expert systems development within a real time context, requires both to master the necessary reasoning about the time as well as to master the necessary response time for reasoning. Although rigorous temporal logic formalisms exist, strategies for temporal reasoning are either incomplete or else imply unacceptable response times. The first part presents the logic formalism upon which is based the production system. This formalism contains a three-valued logic system with truth-valued matrix, and a deductive system with a formal system. It does a rigorous work for this no standard logic, where the notions of consistency and completeness can be studied. Its development supports itself on the will to formalise the reasoning used at the elaboration time of the strategies to make them more explicit as the natural deduction method. The second part proposes an extension for the source logic formalism to take explicitly the time into account. The approach proposed through 'TANIS', the prototype of such an expert system shell, using a natural reasoning application is proposed. It allows, at the generation time, the implementation within the expert system, of an adapted deduction strategy to the symbolic temporal reasoning which is complete and ease the determination of the response time. (author) [fr

  9. Intelligent Control of Welding Gun Pose for Pipeline Welding Robot Based on Improved Radial Basis Function Network and Expert System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jingwen Tian

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Since the control system of the welding gun pose in whole-position welding is complicated and nonlinear, an intelligent control system of welding gun pose for a pipeline welding robot based on an improved radial basis function neural network (IRBFNN and expert system (ES is presented in this paper. The structure of the IRBFNN is constructed and the improved genetic algorithm is adopted to optimize the network structure. This control system makes full use of the characteristics of the IRBFNN and the ES. The ADXRS300 micro-mechanical gyro is used as the welding gun position sensor in this system. When the welding gun position is obtained, an appropriate pitch angle can be obtained through expert knowledge and the numeric reasoning capacity of the IRBFNN. ARM is used as the controller to drive the welding gun pitch angle step motor in order to adjust the pitch angle of the welding gun in real-time. The experiment results show that the intelligent control system of the welding gun pose using the IRBFNN and expert system is feasible and it enhances the welding quality. This system has wide prospects for application.

  10. SU-F-T-244: Radiotherapy Risk Estimation Based On Expert Group Survey

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koo, J; Yoon, M [Korea University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Chung, W; Chung, M; Kim, D [Kyung Hee University Hospital at Gangdong, Gangdong-gu, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-06-15

    Purpose: To evaluate the reliability of RPN (Risk Priority Number) decided by expert group and to provide preliminary data for adapting FMEA in Korea. Methods: 1163 Incidents reported in ROSIS for 11 years were used as a real data to be compared with, and were categorized into 146 items. The questionnaire was composed of the 146 items and respondents had to valuate ‘occurrence (O)’, ‘severity (S)’, ‘detectability (D)’ of each item on a scale from 1 to 10 according to the proposed AAPM TG-100 rating scales. 19 medical physicists from 19 different organizations in Korea had participated in the survey. Because the number of ROSIS items was not evenly spread enough to be classified into 10 grades, 1–5 scale was chosen instead of 1–10 and survey result was also fit to 5 grades to compare. Results: The average O,S,D were 1.77, 3.50, 2.13, respectively and the item which had the highest RPN(32) was ‘patient movement during treatment’ in the survey. When comparing items ranked in the top 10 of each survey(O) and ROSIS database, two items were duplicated and ‘Simulation’ and ’Treatment’ were the most frequently ranked RT process in top 10 of survey and ROSIS each. The Chronbach α of each RT process were ranged from 0.74 to 0.99 and p-value was <0.001. When comparing O*D, the average difference was 1.4. Conclusion: This work indicates the deviation between actual risk and expectation. Considering that the respondents were Korean and ROSIS is mainly composed of incidents happened in European countries and some of the top 10 items of ROSIS cannot be applied in radiotherapy procedure in Korea, the deviation could have been came from procedural difference. Moreover, if expert group was consisted of experts from various parts, expectation might have been more accurate. Therefore, further research on radiotherapy risk estimation is needed.

  11. SU-F-T-244: Radiotherapy Risk Estimation Based On Expert Group Survey

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koo, J; Yoon, M; Chung, W; Chung, M; Kim, D

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: To evaluate the reliability of RPN (Risk Priority Number) decided by expert group and to provide preliminary data for adapting FMEA in Korea. Methods: 1163 Incidents reported in ROSIS for 11 years were used as a real data to be compared with, and were categorized into 146 items. The questionnaire was composed of the 146 items and respondents had to valuate ‘occurrence (O)’, ‘severity (S)’, ‘detectability (D)’ of each item on a scale from 1 to 10 according to the proposed AAPM TG-100 rating scales. 19 medical physicists from 19 different organizations in Korea had participated in the survey. Because the number of ROSIS items was not evenly spread enough to be classified into 10 grades, 1–5 scale was chosen instead of 1–10 and survey result was also fit to 5 grades to compare. Results: The average O,S,D were 1.77, 3.50, 2.13, respectively and the item which had the highest RPN(32) was ‘patient movement during treatment’ in the survey. When comparing items ranked in the top 10 of each survey(O) and ROSIS database, two items were duplicated and ‘Simulation’ and ’Treatment’ were the most frequently ranked RT process in top 10 of survey and ROSIS each. The Chronbach α of each RT process were ranged from 0.74 to 0.99 and p-value was <0.001. When comparing O*D, the average difference was 1.4. Conclusion: This work indicates the deviation between actual risk and expectation. Considering that the respondents were Korean and ROSIS is mainly composed of incidents happened in European countries and some of the top 10 items of ROSIS cannot be applied in radiotherapy procedure in Korea, the deviation could have been came from procedural difference. Moreover, if expert group was consisted of experts from various parts, expectation might have been more accurate. Therefore, further research on radiotherapy risk estimation is needed.

  12. Wind power in Finland up to the year 2025--'soft' scenarios based on expert views

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Varho, Vilja; Tapio, Petri

    2005-01-01

    In this article we present a method of constructing 'soft' scenarios applied to the wind power development in Finland up to the year 2025. We asked 14 experts to describe probable and preferable futures using a quantitative questionnaire and qualitative interviews. Wind power production grows in all scenarios but there were differences in the order of magnitude of 10. The growth rate of electricity consumption slows down in all scenarios. Qualitative arguments varied even within clusters, with wind power policy emerging as the main dividing factor. The differences revealed diverse values and political objectives, as well as great uncertainties in assumptions about future developments. These influence wind power policy and were also believed to have contributed to the slow development of wind power in Finland. Re-thinking of the Finnish wind power policy is recommended. The 'soft' scenario method is considered valuable in finding diverse views, constructing transparent scenarios and assisting energy policy making

  13. Valuation of Construction Projects Based on of Quantity Scale by using Expert System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Entisar Kadhim Rasheed

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available The subject of an valuation of quality of construction projects is one of the topics which it becomes necessary of the absence of the quantity standards in measuring the control works and the quality valuation standards in constructional projects. In the time being it depends on the experience of the workers which leads to an apparent differences in the valuation. The idea of this research came to put the standards to evaluate the quality of the projects in a special system depending on quantity scale nor quality specifying in order to prepare an expert system “ Crystal “ to apply this special system to able the engineers to valuate the quality of their projects easily and in more accurate ways.

  14. Prototype of an expert system based nuclear power plant information systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vegh, J.; Bodnar, M.; Buerger, L.; Tanyi, M.; Sefesik, F.

    1994-01-01

    The components and functioning of the GPCS information system applicable for intelligent process monitoring and alarm generation in a WWER-440 type nuclear power plant are described. The prototype system has been developed by using the G2 expert system, plant measurements were simulated by a WWER-440 compact simulator and by archive replay sessions performed by the VERONA-u core monitoring system. The GPCS contains an object oriented description of the basic subsystems of the plant and concentrates on the fast evaluation/displaying of measurements and alarms. The high-level information reflecting actual plant safety status is synthesized from primary measured data, by forming global alarms and by evaluating logical diagrams. (author). 10 refs, 4 figs

  15. Land Degradation Monitoring in the Ordos Plateau of China Using an Expert Knowledge and BP-ANN-Based Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yaojie Yue

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Land degradation monitoring is of vital importance to provide scientific information for promoting sustainable land utilization. This paper presents an expert knowledge and BP-ANN-based approach to detect and monitor land degradation in an effort to overcome the deficiencies of image classification and vegetation index-based approaches. The proposed approach consists of three generic steps: (1 extraction of knowledge on the relationship between land degradation degree and predisposing factors, which are NDVI and albedo, from domain experts; (2 establishment of a land degradation detecting model based on the BP-ANN algorithm; and (3 land degradation dynamic analysis. A comprehensive analysis was conducted on the development of land degradation in the Ordos Plateau of China in 1990, 2000 and 2010. The results indicate that the proposed approach is reliable for monitoring land degradation, with an overall accuracy of 91.2%. From 1990–2010, a reverse trend of land degradation is observed in Ordos Plateau. Regions with relatively high land degradation dynamic were mostly located in the northeast of Ordos Plateau. Additionally, most of the regions have transferred from a hot spot of land degradation to a less changed area. It is suggested that land utilization optimization plays a key role for effective land degradation control. However, it should be highlighted that the goals of such strategies should aim at the main negative factors causing land degradation, and the land use type and its quantity must meet the demand of population and be reconciled with natural conditions. Results from this case study suggest that the expert knowledge and BP-ANN-based approach is effective in mapping land degradation.

  16. "I Think It's Low Self-Esteem". Teachers' Judgements: A Cautionary Tale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, David; Parker, Donna

    2006-01-01

    Although there is a debate about the importance of self-esteem in education, many primary teachers wish to help children who suffer from low self-esteem. However, in order to do this, we first have to identify such children. It is almost taken for granted that we can make quite accurate judgements based on the knowledge built up through day-to-day…

  17. Expert Systems: What Is an Expert System?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duval, Beverly K.; Main, Linda

    1994-01-01

    Describes expert systems and discusses their use in libraries. Highlights include parts of an expert system; expert system shells; an example of how to build an expert system; a bibliography of 34 sources of information on expert systems in libraries; and a list of 10 expert system shells used in libraries. (Contains five references.) (LRW)

  18. Use of expert judgment in the development and evaluation of risk-based inservice testing strategies for pumps and valves

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McAllister, W.J.; Perdue, R.K.; Balkey, K.R.; Closky, N.B. [and others

    1996-12-01

    This paper describes a rigorous approach for quantitatively evaluating inservice testing effectiveness that evolved from two pilot plant studies. These studies prototyped methodologies for designing and selecting inservice testing (IST) strategies in a manner structured to insure that the targeted components will perform their required safety functions while minimizing life cycle inservice testing costs. The paper concentrates on the use of expert judgment in developing test effectiveness measures that move risk-based methods beyond ranking to optimization of plant IST programs. Selected results for check valves and pumps are shown to illustrate the practical significance of the approach.

  19. Use of expert judgment in the development and evaluation of risk-based inservice testing strategies for pumps and valves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McAllister, W.J.; Perdue, R.K.; Balkey, K.R.; Closky, N.B.

    1996-01-01

    This paper describes a rigorous approach for quantitatively evaluating inservice testing effectiveness that evolved from two pilot plant studies. These studies prototyped methodologies for designing and selecting inservice testing (IST) strategies in a manner structured to insure that the targeted components will perform their required safety functions while minimizing life cycle inservice testing costs. The paper concentrates on the use of expert judgment in developing test effectiveness measures that move risk-based methods beyond ranking to optimization of plant IST programs. Selected results for check valves and pumps are shown to illustrate the practical significance of the approach

  20. System of Objectified Judgement Analysis (SOJA) as a tool in rational and transparent drug-decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janknegt, Robert; Scott, Mike; Mairs, Jill; Timoney, Mark; McElnay, James; Brenninkmeijer, Rob

    2007-10-01

    Drug selection should be a rational process that embraces the principles of evidence-based medicine. However, many factors may affect the choice of agent. It is against this background that the System of Objectified Judgement Analysis (SOJA) process for rational drug-selection was developed. This article describes how the information on which the SOJA process is based, was researched and processed.

  1. Physiotherapy in the intensive care unit: an evidence-based, expert driven, practical statement and rehabilitation recommendations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sommers, Juultje; Engelbert, Raoul HH; Dettling-Ihnenfeldt, Daniela; Gosselink, Rik; Spronk, Peter E; Nollet, Frans; van der Schaaf, Marike

    2015-01-01

    Objective: To develop evidence-based recommendations for effective and safe diagnostic assessment and intervention strategies for the physiotherapy treatment of patients in intensive care units. Methods: We used the EBRO method, as recommended by the ‘Dutch Evidence Based Guideline Development Platform’ to develop an ‘evidence statement for physiotherapy in the intensive care unit’. This method consists of the identification of clinically relevant questions, followed by a systematic literature search, and summary of the evidence with final recommendations being moderated by feedback from experts. Results: Three relevant clinical domains were identified by experts: criteria to initiate treatment; measures to assess patients; evidence for effectiveness of treatments. In a systematic literature search, 129 relevant studies were identified and assessed for methodological quality and classified according to the level of evidence. The final evidence statement consisted of recommendations on eight absolute and four relative contra-indications to mobilization; a core set of nine specific instruments to assess impairments and activity restrictions; and six passive and four active effective interventions, with advice on (a) physiological measures to observe during treatment (with stopping criteria) and (b) what to record after the treatment. Conclusions: These recommendations form a protocol for treating people in an intensive care unit, based on best available evidence in mid-2014. PMID:25681407

  2. The effect of case-based discussion of topics with experts on learners' opinions: implications for spinal education and training.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berjano, Pedro; Villafañe, Jorge Hugo; Vanacker, Gerard; Cecchinato, Riccardo; Ismael, Maryem; Gunzburg, Robert; Marruzzo, Daniele; Lamartina, Claudio

    2017-10-01

    This investigation aimed to examine the extent to which case-based discussion with experts could influence the audience's opinions on the treatment of patients during a continuing medical education event for spine surgeons. We conducted a prospective controlled crossover study of 90 surgeons. During a continuing medical education activity using case-based discussion, quiz questions were used which asked participants (attendants and faculty group) their opinions on the best choices about diagnosis and treatment in a number of cases. No answer was considered correct, but we evaluated the number of participants choosing each specific answer among a number of valid options. Quiz questions were collected with an automated response system at the entry and at the end of each case discussion. Change in participant's opinions was estimated from the change in the preferred answers between the entry and exit quizzes. Chi-square analysis was performed to determine significance. Sixty-two attendants out of eighty three (75%) and six faculties out of twelve (50%) responded to the survey. After the case discussion, 68.2% (p < 0.04, Chi-square test) of the attendants changed their opinion on the appropriate treatment. The faculty answers, however, showed no significant change in opinions regarding the identification of the appropriate treatment. On the basis of our results, case-based discussion driven by experts, as a form of teaching, has a measurable effect in terms of changes in the learners' opinions.

  3. Medication regularity of pulmonary fibrosis treatment by contemporary traditional Chinese medicine experts based on data mining.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Suxian; Wu, Hao; Liu, Jie; Gu, Huihui; Li, Xiujuan; Zhang, Tiansong

    2018-03-01

    Treatment of pulmonary fibrosis by traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) has accumulated important experience. Our interest is in exploring the medication regularity of contemporary Chinese medical specialists treating pulmonary fibrosis. Through literature search, medical records from TCM experts who treat pulmonary fibrosis, which were published in Chinese and English medical journals, were selected for this study. As the object of study, a database was established after analysing the records. After data cleaning, the rules of medicine in the treatment of pulmonary fibrosis in medical records of TCM were explored by using data mining technologies such as frequency analysis, association rule analysis, and link analysis. A total of 124 medical records from 60 doctors were selected in this study; 263 types of medicinals were used a total of 5,455 times; the herbs that were used more than 30 times can be grouped into 53 species and were used a total of 3,681 times. Using main medicinals cluster analysis, medicinals were divided into qi-tonifying, yin-tonifying, blood-activating, phlegm-resolving, cough-suppressing, panting-calming, and ten other major medicinal categories. According to the set conditions, a total of 62 drug compatibility rules have been obtained, involving mainly qi-tonifying, yin-tonifying, blood-activating, phlegm-resolving, qi-descending, and panting-calming medicinals, as well as other medicinals used in combination. The results of data mining are consistent with clinical practice and it is feasible to explore the medical rules applicable to the treatment of pulmonary fibrosis in medical records of TCM by data mining.

  4. Viewing the triarchic model of psychopathy through general personality and expert-based lenses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Joshua D; Lamkin, Joanna; Maples-Keller, Jessica L; Lynam, Donald R

    2016-07-01

    The recently articulated and increasingly prominent triarchic model of psychopathy (TPM) posits the existence of 3 components of meanness, disinhibition, and boldness. In the current studies, 2 issues are addressed. First, although typically conceptualized in isolation from trait models of personality, the TPM components may be manifestations of basic personality dimensions. In Study 1 (N = 335), we test whether basic traits from the five-factor model (FFM) can account for the TPM's psychopathy domains. The FFM domains (Mean R2 = .65) and facets (Mean R2 = .75) accounted for substantial variance in the TPM domains, suggesting that the TPM can be viewed as being nested within a broader trait framework. Second, there is disagreement about which personality components are necessary and sufficient for psychopathy. In Study 2, we examine this issue using a between subject design in which expert raters (N = 46) were asked to view an FFM profile of the TPM domains and total score derived in Study 1 and rate the degree to which an individual with this profile would manifest symptoms of psychopathy, Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (5th ed.; DSM-5) personality disorders, and a variety of other psychiatric disorders. As expected, the profile associated with boldness was rated as less emblematic of psychopathy and related disorders (e.g., antisocial personality disorder; externalizing disorders) than the profiles for meanness or the total TPM score. These findings contribute to an ongoing debate addressing the degree to which domains like those articulated in the TPM are necessary or sufficient for the construct of psychopathy. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

  5. Text mining and natural language processing approaches for automatic categorization of lay requests to web-based expert forums.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Himmel, Wolfgang; Reincke, Ulrich; Michelmann, Hans Wilhelm

    2009-07-22

    Both healthy and sick people increasingly use electronic media to obtain medical information and advice. For example, Internet users may send requests to Web-based expert forums, or so-called "ask the doctor" services. To automatically classify lay requests to an Internet medical expert forum using a combination of different text-mining strategies. We first manually classified a sample of 988 requests directed to a involuntary childlessness forum on the German website "Rund ums Baby" ("Everything about Babies") into one or more of 38 categories belonging to two dimensions ("subject matter" and "expectations"). After creating start and synonym lists, we calculated the average Cramer's V statistic for the association of each word with each category. We also used principle component analysis and singular value decomposition as further text-mining strategies. With these measures we trained regression models and determined, on the basis of best regression models, for any request the probability of belonging to each of the 38 different categories, with a cutoff of 50%. Recall and precision of a test sample were calculated as a measure of quality for the automatic classification. According to the manual classification of 988 documents, 102 (10%) documents fell into the category "in vitro fertilization (IVF)," 81 (8%) into the category "ovulation," 79 (8%) into "cycle," and 57 (6%) into "semen analysis." These were the four most frequent categories in the subject matter dimension (consisting of 32 categories). The expectation dimension comprised six categories; we classified 533 documents (54%) as "general information" and 351 (36%) as a wish for "treatment recommendations." The generation of indicator variables based on the chi-square analysis and Cramer's V proved to be the best approach for automatic classification in about half of the categories. In combination with the two other approaches, 100% precision and 100% recall were realized in 18 (47%) out of the 38

  6. Reliability-Based and Cost-Oriented Product Optimization Integrating Fuzzy Reasoning Petri Nets, Interval Expert Evaluation and Cultural-Based DMOPSO Using Crowding Distance Sorting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhaoxi Hong

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available In reliability-based and cost-oriented product optimization, the target product reliability is apportioned to subsystems or components to achieve the maximum reliability and minimum cost. Main challenges to conducting such optimization design lie in how to simultaneously consider subsystem division, uncertain evaluation provided by experts for essential factors, and dynamic propagation of product failure. To overcome these problems, a reliability-based and cost-oriented product optimization method integrating fuzzy reasoning Petri net (FRPN, interval expert evaluation and cultural-based dynamic multi-objective particle swarm optimization (DMOPSO using crowding distance sorting is proposed in this paper. Subsystem division is performed based on failure decoupling, and then subsystem weights are calculated with FRPN reflecting dynamic and uncertain failure propagation, as well as interval expert evaluation considering six essential factors. A mathematical model of reliability-based and cost-oriented product optimization is established, and the cultural-based DMOPSO with crowding distance sorting is utilized to obtain the optimized design scheme. The efficiency and effectiveness of the proposed method are demonstrated by the numerical example of the optimization design for a computer numerically controlled (CNC machine tool.

  7. Giving “Best Advice”: Proposing a Framework of Community Pharmacist Professional Judgement Formation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cicely Roche

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Community pharmacy is often portrayed as a marriage of professional and business roles in a commercial domain, thereby creating a need for, and value in, pursuing the development of professional competencies for use in the community pharmacy business. In context, professional judgement is the application of knowledge, skills and attitudes (competencies which, when applied to situations where there is no one or obvious right or wrong way to proceed, gives a patient a better likelihood of a favourable outcome than if a lay-person had made the decision. The challenge for community pharmacists is that professional judgement formation is influenced by professional, commercial and personal criteria with inherent interconnected challenges. In community pharmacy practice in the Republic of Ireland (ROI, this challenge is compounded by the fact that advice is normally provided in an environment where the pharmacist provides professional advice “for free” and then may offer to sell the patient a product or service based on that advice, an activity which amounts to a commercial transaction. While there is currently no evidence to confirm whether or not these professional judgement influences are resolved successfully, their very existence poses a risk that their resolution “in the wrong way” could compromise patient outcomes or professional standing following the delivery of pharmacy services. It is therefore apparent that a community pharmacist requires skills in identifying and analysing professional/commercial/personal influences in order to appreciate the criteria which may affect both parties’ (patient and pharmacist decision making. By contemplating the interaction between the pharmacist’s professional competencies and the individual influences on that pharmacist, we can consider the enhancement of professional competencies that underpin the “best” advice being offered to the patient, regardless of whether that advice is offered in

  8. Expert consensus statement to guide the evidence-based classification of Paralympic athletes with vision impairment: a Delphi study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ravensbergen, H J C Rianne; Mann, D L; Kamper, S J

    2016-04-01

    Paralympic sports are required to develop evidence-based systems that allocate athletes into 'classes' on the basis of the impact of their impairment on sport performance. However, sports for athletes with vision impairment (VI) classify athletes solely based on the WHO criteria for low vision and blindness. One key barrier to evidence-based classification is the absence of guidance on how to address classification issues unique to VI sport. The aim of this study was to reach expert consensus on how issues specific to VI sport should be addressed in evidence-based classification. A four-round Delphi study was conducted with 25 participants who had expertise as a coach, athlete, classifier and/or administrator in Paralympic sport for VI athletes. The experts agreed that the current method of classification does not fulfil the requirements of Paralympic classification, and that the system should be different for each sport to account for the sports' unique visual demands. Instead of relying only on tests of visual acuity and visual field, the panel agreed that additional tests are required to better account for the impact of impairment on sport performance. There was strong agreement that all athletes should not be required to wear a blindfold as a means of equalising the impairment during competition. There is strong support within the Paralympic movement to change the way that VI athletes are classified. This consensus statement provides clear guidance on how the most important issues specific to VI should be addressed, removing key barriers to the development of evidence-based classification. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

  9. OARSI recommendations for the management of hip and knee osteoarthritis, Part II: OARSI evidence-based, expert consensus guidelines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, W; Moskowitz, R W; Nuki, G; Abramson, S; Altman, R D; Arden, N; Bierma-Zeinstra, S; Brandt, K D; Croft, P; Doherty, M; Dougados, M; Hochberg, M; Hunter, D J; Kwoh, K; Lohmander, L S; Tugwell, P

    2008-02-01

    To develop concise, patient-focussed, up to date, evidence-based, expert consensus recommendations for the management of hip and knee osteoarthritis (OA), which are adaptable and designed to assist physicians and allied health care professionals in general and specialist practise throughout the world. Sixteen experts from four medical disciplines (primary care, rheumatology, orthopaedics and evidence-based medicine), two continents and six countries (USA, UK, France, Netherlands, Sweden and Canada) formed the guidelines development team. A systematic review of existing guidelines for the management of hip and knee OA published between 1945 and January 2006 was undertaken using the validated appraisal of guidelines research and evaluation (AGREE) instrument. A core set of management modalities was generated based on the agreement between guidelines. Evidence before 2002 was based on a systematic review conducted by European League Against Rheumatism and evidence after 2002 was updated using MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, AMED, the Cochrane Library and HTA reports. The quality of evidence was evaluated, and where possible, effect size (ES), number needed to treat, relative risk or odds ratio and cost per quality-adjusted life years gained were estimated. Consensus recommendations were produced following a Delphi exercise and the strength of recommendation (SOR) for propositions relating to each modality was determined using a visual analogue scale. Twenty-three treatment guidelines for the management of hip and knee OA were identified from the literature search, including six opinion-based, five evidence-based and 12 based on both expert opinion and research evidence. Twenty out of 51 treatment modalities addressed by these guidelines were universally recommended. ES for pain relief varied from treatment to treatment. Overall there was no statistically significant difference between non-pharmacological therapies [0.25, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.16, 0.34] and

  10. Evolving MCDM Applications Using Hybrid Expert-Based ISM and DEMATEL Models: An Example of Sustainable Ecotourism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huan-Ming Chuang

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Ecological degradation is an escalating global threat. Increasingly, people are expressing awareness and priority for concerns about environmental problems surrounding them. Environmental protection issues are highlighted. An appropriate information technology tool, the growing popular social network system (virtual community, VC, facilitates public education and engagement with applications for existent problems effectively. Particularly, the exploration of related involvement behavior of VC member engagement is an interesting topic. Nevertheless, member engagement processes comprise interrelated sub-processes that reflect an interactive experience within VCs as well as the value co-creation model. To address the top-focused ecotourism VCs, this study presents an application of a hybrid expert-based ISM model and DEMATEL model based on multi-criteria decision making tools to investigate the complex multidimensional and dynamic nature of member engagement. Our research findings provide insightful managerial implications and suggest that the viral marketing of ecotourism protection is concerned with practitioners and academicians alike.

  11. Evolving MCDM Applications Using Hybrid Expert-Based ISM and DEMATEL Models: An Example of Sustainable Ecotourism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chuang, Huan-Ming

    2013-01-01

    Ecological degradation is an escalating global threat. Increasingly, people are expressing awareness and priority for concerns about environmental problems surrounding them. Environmental protection issues are highlighted. An appropriate information technology tool, the growing popular social network system (virtual community, VC), facilitates public education and engagement with applications for existent problems effectively. Particularly, the exploration of related involvement behavior of VC member engagement is an interesting topic. Nevertheless, member engagement processes comprise interrelated sub-processes that reflect an interactive experience within VCs as well as the value co-creation model. To address the top-focused ecotourism VCs, this study presents an application of a hybrid expert-based ISM model and DEMATEL model based on multi-criteria decision making tools to investigate the complex multidimensional and dynamic nature of member engagement. Our research findings provide insightful managerial implications and suggest that the viral marketing of ecotourism protection is concerned with practitioners and academicians alike. PMID:24453902

  12. Development of an Index for the Assessment of Welfare of Finishing Pigs from Farm to Slaughter based on Expert Opinion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brandt, Pia; Rousing, Tine; Herskin, Mette S

    2017-01-01

    by aggregating 25 primarily animal-based measurements based on 38 experts opinion on inter-measurement and inter-stage weights. AWIs were calculated on animal level as the weighted sums of prevalence of the measurements, and were calculated for each of the six stages: pick-up pen, loading, transport, unloading......, lairage and race (AWIStage) and across the stages (AWIOverall). The AWIs were tested in 5 farms including a total of 45 fattening pigs delivered to two Danish abattoirs. Possible inter-relations between the AWI and heart rate measurements were examined. For each welfare measurement within stage......, this work has suggested a potential model for the aggregation of animal welfare measurements into animal welfare indexes for slaughter pigs on the day of slaughter. Further validation may allow simple comparison of the level of welfare between lorries, days, abattoirs etc. and may be used for future...

  13. Evolving MCDM applications using hybrid expert-based ISM and DEMATEL models: an example of sustainable ecotourism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chuang, Huan-Ming; Lin, Chien-Ku; Chen, Da-Ren; Chen, You-Shyang

    2013-01-01

    Ecological degradation is an escalating global threat. Increasingly, people are expressing awareness and priority for concerns about environmental problems surrounding them. Environmental protection issues are highlighted. An appropriate information technology tool, the growing popular social network system (virtual community, VC), facilitates public education and engagement with applications for existent problems effectively. Particularly, the exploration of related involvement behavior of VC member engagement is an interesting topic. Nevertheless, member engagement processes comprise interrelated sub-processes that reflect an interactive experience within VCs as well as the value co-creation model. To address the top-focused ecotourism VCs, this study presents an application of a hybrid expert-based ISM model and DEMATEL model based on multi-criteria decision making tools to investigate the complex multidimensional and dynamic nature of member engagement. Our research findings provide insightful managerial implications and suggest that the viral marketing of ecotourism protection is concerned with practitioners and academicians alike.

  14. PRACTICAL ASPECTS OF QUALITY DATA PROCESSING AND A RULE –BASED EXPERT SYSTEM FOR QUALITY OF LIFE EVALUATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irena L. ATANASOVA

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available One of the most important challenges the European Union was facing at the beginning of the 21st century was to balance economic development with the improvement of quality of its citizens life. A new approach for assessing the quality of life using the ten-degree global scale is revealed in this article. The aptness of this approach to exploring the social area and determining the quality of life of people in different countries and regions are also discussed. There are being examined some practical aspects of setting up an expert system for social area.The article describes the implementation of such a system for evaluating the quality of life – QLIFEX. The expert system is an innovative research project based entirely on qualitative methods, which aims at helping in understanding of how in an era of great changes residents from different countries live and work in diverse economic organizations, and how they would rate their work and life.

  15. Including values in evidence-based policy making for breast screening: An empirically grounded tool to assist expert decision makers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parker, Lisa

    2017-07-01

    Values are an important part of evidence-based decision making for health policy: they guide the type of evidence that is collected, how it is interpreted, and how important the conclusions are considered to be. Experts in breast screening (including clinicians, researchers, consumer advocates and senior administrators) hold differing values in relation to what is important in breast screening policy and practice, and committees may find it difficult to incorporate the complexity and variety of values into policy decisions. The decision making tool provided here is intended to assist with this process. The tool is modified from more general frameworks that are intended to assist with ethical decision making in public health, and informed by data drawn from previous empirical studies on values amongst Australian breast screening experts. It provides a structured format for breast screening committees to consider and discuss the values of themselves and others, suggests relevant topics for further inquiry and highlights areas of need for future research into the values of the public. It enables committees to publicly explain and justify their decisions with reference to values, improving transparency and accountability. It is intended to act alongside practices that seek to accommodate the values of individual women in the informed decision making process for personal decision making about participation in breast screening. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. ABOUT CLINICAL EXPERT SYSTEM BASED ON RULES USING DATA MINING TECHNOLOGY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. P. Martsenyuk

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available In the work the topics of software implementation of rule induction method based on sequential covering algorithm are considered. Such approach allows us to develop clinical decision support system. The project is implemented within Netbeans IDE based on Java-classes.

  17. The System of Objectified Judgement Analysis (SOJA). A tool in rational drug selection for formulary inclusion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janknegt, R; Steenhoek, A

    1997-04-01

    Rational drug selection for formulary purposes is important. Besides rational selection criteria, other factors play a role in drug decision making, such as emotional, personal financial and even unconscious criteria. It is agreed that these factors should be excluded as much as possible in the decision making process. A model for drug decision making for formulary purposes is described, the System of Objectified Judgement Analysis (SOJA). In the SOJA method, selection criteria for a given group of drugs are prospectively defined and the extent to which each drug fulfils the requirements for each criterion is determined. Each criterion is given a relative weight, i.e. the more important a given selection criterion is considered, the higher the relative weight. Both the relative scores for each drug per selection criterion and the relative weight of each criterion are determined by a panel of experts in this field. The following selection criteria are applied in all SOJA scores: clinical efficacy, incidence and severity of adverse effects, dosage frequency, drug interactions, acquisition cost, documentation, pharmacokinetics and pharmaceutical aspects. Besides these criteria, group specific criteria are also used, such as development of resistance when a SOJA score was made for antimicrobial agents. The relative weight that is assigned to each criterion will always be a subject of discussion. Therefore, interactive software programs for use on a personal computer have been developed, in which the user of the system may enter their own personal relative weight to each selection criterion and make their own personal SOJA score. The main advantage of the SOJA method is that all nonrational selection criteria are excluded and that drug decision making is based solely on rational criteria. The use of the interactive SOJA discs makes the decision process fully transparent as it becomes clear on which criteria and weighting decisions are based. We have seen that the use of

  18. A Web-based Multilingual Intelligent Tutor System based on Jackson's Learning Styles Profiler and Expert Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Ghadirli, Hossein Movafegh; Rastgarpour, Maryam

    2013-01-01

    Nowadays, Intelligent Tutoring Systems (ITSs) are so regarded in order to improve education quality via new technologies in this area. One of the problems is that the language of ITSs is different from the learner's. It forces the learners to learn the system language. This paper tries to remove this necessity by using an Automatic Translator Component in system structure like Google Translate API. This system carry out a pre-test and post-test by using Expert System and Jackson Model before ...

  19. THE GHOST IN THE MACHINE? THE VALUE OF EXPERT ADVICE IN THE PRODUCTION OF EVIDENCE-BASED GUIDANCE: A MIXED METHODS STUDY OF THE NICE INTERVENTIONAL PROCEDURES PROGRAMME.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oyebode, Oyinlola; Patrick, Hannah; Walker, Alexander; Campbell, Bruce; Powell, John

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this study was to determine the aspects of expert advice that decision makers find most useful in the development of evidence-based guidance and to identify the characteristics of experts providing the most useful advice. First, semi-structured interviews were conducted with seventeen members of the Interventional Procedures Advisory Committee of the UK's National Institute of Health and Care Excellence. Interviews examined the usefulness of expert advice during guidance development. Transcripts were analyzed inductively to identify themes. Second, data were extracted from 211 experts' questionnaires for forty-one consecutive procedures. Usefulness of advice was scored using an index developed through the qualitative work. Associations between usefulness score and characteristics of the expert advisor were investigated using univariate and multivariate analyses. Expert opinion was seen as a valued complement to empirical evidence, providing context and tacit knowledge unavailable in published literature, but helpful for interpreting it. Interviewees also valued advice on the training and experience required to perform a procedure, on patient selection criteria and the place of a procedure within a clinical management pathway. Limitations of bias in expert opinion were widely acknowledged and skepticism expressed regarding the anecdotal nature of advice on safety or efficacy outcomes. Quantitative analysis demonstrated that the most useful advice was given by clinical experts with direct personal experience of the procedure, particularly research experience. Evidence-based guidance production is often characterized as a rational, pipeline process. This ignores the valuable role that expert opinion plays in guidance development, complementing and supporting the interpretation of empirical data.

  20. A Functional Architecture for a Logistics Expert System in a Sea Based Environment

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Cook, Henry B; Hicks, David M

    2005-01-01

    .... One of the major characteristics associated with future military concepts is that they employ Joint and Coalition Forces from a sea base conducting a full range of operations in the littoral regions of the world...

  1. Fuzzy Concurrent Object Oriented Expert System for Fault Diagnosis in 8085 Microprocessor Based System Board

    OpenAIRE

    Mr.D. V. Kodavade; Dr. Mrs.S.D.Apte

    2014-01-01

    With the acceptance of artificial intelligence paradigm, a number of successful artificial intelligence systems were created. Fault diagnosis in microprocessor based boards needs lot of empirical knowledge and expertise and is a true artificial intelligence problem. Research on fault diagnosis in microprocessor based system boards using new fuzzy-object oriented approach is presented in this paper. There are many uncertain situations observed during fault diagnosis. These uncertain situations...

  2. Relevance as process: judgements in the context of scholarly research

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Theresa D. Anderson

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction. This paper discusses how exploring the research process in-depth and over time contributes to a fuller understanding of interactions with various representations of information. Method. A longitudinal ethnographic study explored decisions made by two informants involved in scholarly research. Relevance assessment and information seeking were observed as part of informants' own ongoing research projects. Fieldwork used methods of discovery that allowed informants to shape the exploration of the practices surrounding the evolving understandings of their topics. Analysis. Inductive analysis was carried out on the qualitative data collected over a two-year period of judgements observed on a document-by-document basis. The paper introduces broad categories that point to the variability and richness of the ways that informants used representations of information resources to make relevance judgements. Results. Relevance judgements appear to be drivers of the search and research processes informants moved through during the observations. Focusing on research goals rather than on retrieval tasks brings us to a fuller understanding of the relationship between ultimate research goals and the articulation of those goals in interactions with information systems. Conclusion. Relevance assessment is a process that unfolds in the doing of a search, the making of judgements and the using of texts and representations of information.

  3. First Impressions: Gait Cues Drive Reliable Trait Judgements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thoresen, John C.; Vuong, Quoc C.; Atkinson, Anthony P.

    2012-01-01

    Personality trait attribution can underpin important social decisions and yet requires little effort; even a brief exposure to a photograph can generate lasting impressions. Body movement is a channel readily available to observers and allows judgements to be made when facial and body appearances are less visible; e.g., from great distances.…

  4. using subjective judgement to determine the validity of a tutorial

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2008-11-21

    Nov 21, 2008 ... Subjective Judgement Model for paired comparison of instrument .... methods for decision making and problem solving would be ... quantitative analysis allows for repeatability and hence an audit ... Takes risks in expressing ideas ..... PBL curriculum planning, implementation and evaluation, ... Company.

  5. A Longitudinal Study of Accounting Students' Ethical Judgement Making Ability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohamed Saat, Maisarah; Porter, Stacey; Woodbine, Gordon

    2012-01-01

    This paper reports the effect of a moral education programme on the ethical judgement making ability of university students. The programme comprises two forms of intervention: a dedicated ethics course and subsequent practical training. A total of 113 accounting students from six Malaysian universities participated in a longitudinal study…

  6. On Preparing for More Subjective Judgements: RAE2008

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnston, Ron

    2005-01-01

    Ever since the first UK Research Assessment Exercise (RAE) was held in the mid-1980s panels of academics have had to make subjective judgements about the quality of work submitted by institutions. In preparation for the 2008 RAE, the four Funding Councils (Higher Education Funding Council for England, Scottish Higher Education Funding Council,…

  7. Judgements about Knowledge: Searching for Factors that Influence Their Validity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mengelkamp, Christoph; Bannert, Maria

    2009-01-01

    Introduction: Research in the field of metacomprehension often uses the accuracy of judgements of own knowledge as a measure of monitoring which is a central component of metacognition. One aim of this study is to investigate if the accuracy above chance usually found in studies using traditional texts can be replicated with hypermedia. More…

  8. The Role of Age in Life Satisfaction Judgements among Educated ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study investigated the role of age in life satisfaction judgements among educated adults in Ado – Ekiti. Employing a sample of 544 participants of educated adults in the age cohorts of 20 – 39 years (276), 40 – 59 years (179), and 60+ years (89), selected through a multi-stage sampling, and administering on them Life ...

  9. Unintended Side Effects of the Digital Transition: European Scientists’ Messages from a Proposition-Based Expert Round Table

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roland W. Scholz

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available We present the main messages of a European Expert Round Table (ERT on the unintended side effects (unseens of the digital transition. Seventeen experts provided 42 propositions from ten different perspectives as input for the ERT. A full-day ERT deliberated communalities and relationships among these unseens and provided suggestions on (i what the major unseens are; (ii how rebound effects of digital transitioning may become the subject of overarching research; and (iii what unseens should become subjects of transdisciplinary theory and practice processes for developing socially robust orientations. With respect to the latter, the experts suggested that the “ownership, economic value, use and access of data” and, related to this, algorithmic decision-making call for transdisciplinary processes that may provide guidelines for key stakeholder groups on how the responsible use of digital data can be developed. A cluster-based content analysis of the propositions, the discussion and inputs of the ERT, and a theoretical analysis of major changes to levels of human systems and the human–environment relationship resulted in the following greater picture: The digital transition calls for redefining economy, labor, democracy, and humanity. Artificial Intelligence (AI-based machines may take over major domains of human labor, reorganize supply chains, induce platform economics, and reshape the participation of economic actors in the value chain. (Digital Knowledge and data supplement capital, labor, and natural resources as major economic variables. Digital data and technologies lead to a post-fuel industry (post- capitalism. Traditional democratic processes can be (intentionally or unintentionally altered by digital technologies. The unseens in this field call for special attention, research and management. Related to the conditions of ontogenetic and phylogenetic development (humanity, the ubiquitous, global, increasingly AI-shaped interlinkage of

  10. Influence of experience and qualification on PET-based target volume delineation. When there is no expert - ask your colleague

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Doll, C.; Grosu, A.L.; Nestle, U. [University Medical Center Freiburg, Radiation Oncology Department, Freiburg/Breisgau (Germany); Duncker-Rohr, V. [University Medical Center Freiburg, Radiation Oncology Department, Freiburg/Breisgau (Germany); Ortenau Clinical Center Offenburg, Radiation Oncology Department, Offenburg (Germany); Ruecker, G. [University of Freiburg, Institute of Medical Biometry und Medical Informatics, Freiburg (Germany); Mix, M. [University Medical Center Freiburg, Nuclear Medicine Department, Freiburg (Germany); MacManus, M. [University of Melbourne, The Sir Peter MacCallum Department of Oncology, Melbourne (Australia); Ruysscher, D. de [University Hospital Leuven/KU Leuven, Department of Radiation Oncology, Leuven (Belgium); Vogel, W. [Antoni van Leeuwenhoek Hospital, Department of Nuclear Medicine, The Netherlands Cancer Institute, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Eriksen, J.G. [Odense University Hospital, Department of Oncology, Odense (Denmark); Oyen, W. [Radboud University Nijmegen Medical Center, Department of Nuclear Medicine, Nijmegen (Netherlands); Weber, W. [University Medical Center Freiburg, Nuclear Medicine Department, Freiburg (Germany); Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, Department of Radiology/Molecular Imaging and Therapy Service, New York (United States)

    2014-06-15

    The integration of positron emission tomography (PET) information for target volume delineation in radiation treatment planning is routine in many centers. In contrast to automatic contouring, research on visual-manual delineation is scarce. The present study investigates the dependency of manual delineation on experience and qualification. A total of 44 international interdisciplinary observers each defined a [{sup 18}F]fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG)-PET based gross tumor volume (GTV) using the same PET/CT scan from a patient with lung cancer. The observers were ''experts'' (E; n = 3), ''experienced interdisciplinary pairs'' (EP; 9 teams of radiation oncologist (RO) + nuclear medicine physician (NP)), ''single field specialists'' (SFS; n = 13), and ''students'' (S; n = 10). Five automatic delineation methods (AM) were also included. Volume sizes and concordance indices within the groups (pCI) and relative to the experts (eCI) were calculated. E (pCI = 0.67) and EP (pCI = 0.53) showed a significantly higher agreement within the groups as compared to SFS (pCI = 0.43, p = 0.03, and p = 0.006). In relation to the experts, EP (eCI = 0.55) showed better concordance compared to SFS (eCI = 0.49) or S (eCI = 0.47). The intermethod variability of the AM (pCI = 0.44) was similar to that of SFS and S, showing poorer agreement with the experts (eCI = 0.35). The results suggest that interdisciplinary cooperation could be beneficial for consistent contouring. Joint delineation by a radiation oncologist and a nuclear medicine physician showed remarkable agreement and better concordance with the experts compared to other specialists. The relevant intermethod variability of the automatic algorithms underlines the need for further standardization and optimization in this field. (orig.) [German] Die Daten aus der Positronenemissionstomographie (PET) werden in vielen Kliniken routinemaessig zur

  11. An expert botanical feature extraction technique based on phenetic features for identifying plant species.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hoshang Kolivand

    Full Text Available In this paper, we present a new method to recognise the leaf type and identify plant species using phenetic parts of the leaf; lobes, apex and base detection. Most of the research in this area focuses on the popular features such as the shape, colour, vein, and texture, which consumes large amounts of computational processing and are not efficient, especially in the Acer database with a high complexity structure of the leaves. This paper is focused on phenetic parts of the leaf which increases accuracy. Detecting the local maxima and local minima are done based on Centroid Contour Distance for Every Boundary Point, using north and south region to recognise the apex and base. Digital morphology is used to measure the leaf shape and the leaf margin. Centroid Contour Gradient is presented to extract the curvature of leaf apex and base. We analyse 32 leaf images of tropical plants and evaluated with two different datasets, Flavia, and Acer. The best accuracy obtained is 94.76% and 82.6% respectively. Experimental results show the effectiveness of the proposed technique without considering the commonly used features with high computational cost.

  12. Time-based tags for fiction movies : comparing experts to novices using a video labeling game

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Estrada, Liliana Melgar; Hildebrand, Michiel; de Boer, Victor; van Ossenbruggen, Jacco

    2017-01-01

    The cultural heritage sector has embraced social tagging as a way to increase both access to online content and to engage users with their digital collections. In this article, we build on two current lines of research. (a) We use Waisda?, an existing labeling game, to add time-based annotations to

  13. An expert botanical feature extraction technique based on phenetic features for identifying plant species

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fern, Bong Mei; Rahim, Mohd Shafry Mohd; Sulong, Ghazali; Baker, Thar; Tully, David

    2018-01-01

    In this paper, we present a new method to recognise the leaf type and identify plant species using phenetic parts of the leaf; lobes, apex and base detection. Most of the research in this area focuses on the popular features such as the shape, colour, vein, and texture, which consumes large amounts of computational processing and are not efficient, especially in the Acer database with a high complexity structure of the leaves. This paper is focused on phenetic parts of the leaf which increases accuracy. Detecting the local maxima and local minima are done based on Centroid Contour Distance for Every Boundary Point, using north and south region to recognise the apex and base. Digital morphology is used to measure the leaf shape and the leaf margin. Centroid Contour Gradient is presented to extract the curvature of leaf apex and base. We analyse 32 leaf images of tropical plants and evaluated with two different datasets, Flavia, and Acer. The best accuracy obtained is 94.76% and 82.6% respectively. Experimental results show the effectiveness of the proposed technique without considering the commonly used features with high computational cost. PMID:29420568

  14. NEPHRUS: model of intelligent multilayers expert system for evaluation of the renal system based on scintigraphic images analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silva, Jose W.E. da; Schirru, Roberto; Boasquevisque, Edson M.

    1997-01-01

    This work develops a prototype for the system model based on Artificial Intelligence devices able to perform functions related to scintigraphic image analysis of the urinary system. Criteria used by medical experts for analysis images obtained with 99m Tc+DTPA and/or 99m Tc+DMSA were modeled and a multi resolution diagnosis technique was implemented. Special attention was given to the programs user interface design. Human Factor Engineering techniques were considered so as to ally friendliness and robustness. Results obtained using Artificial Neural Networks for the qualitative image analysis and the knowledge model constructed shows the feasibility of Artificial Intelligence implementation that use 'inherent' abilities of each technique in the resolution of diagnosis image analysis problems. (author). 12 refs., 2 figs., 2 tabs

  15. An expert-based job exposure matrix for large scale epidemiologic studies of primary hip and knee osteoarthritis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rubak, Tine Steen; Svendsen, Susanne Wulff; Andersen, Johan Hviid

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND: When conducting large scale epidemiologic studies, it is a challenge to obtain quantitative exposure estimates, which do not rely on self-report where estimates may be influenced by symptoms and knowledge of disease status. In this study we developed a job exposure matrix (JEM) for use...... in population studies of the work-relatedness of hip and knee osteoarthritis. METHODS: Based on all 2227 occupational titles in the Danish version of the International Standard Classification of Occupations (D-ISCO 88), we constructed 121 job groups comprising occupational titles with expected homogeneous....../day), and frequency of lifting loads weighing ≥20 kg (times/day). Weighted kappa statistics were used to evaluate inter-rater agreement on rankings of the job groups for four of these exposures (whole-body vibration could not be evaluated due to few exposed job groups). Two external experts checked the face validity...

  16. An Intervention Based on Video Feedback and Questioning to Improve Tactical Knowledge in Expert Female Volleyball Players.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moreno, M Perla; Moreno, Alberto; García-González, Luis; Ureña, Aurelio; Hernández, César; Del Villar, Fernando

    2016-06-01

    This study applied an intervention program, based on video feedback and questioning, to expert female volleyball players to improve their tactical knowledge. The sample consisted of eight female attackers (26 ± 2.6 years old) from the Spanish National Volleyball Team, who were divided into an experimental group (n = 4) and a control group (n = 4). The video feedback and questioning program applied in the study was developed over eight reflective sessions and consisted of three phases: viewing of the selected actions, self-analysis and reflection by the attacker, and joint player-coach analysis. The attackers were videotaped in an actual game and four clips (situations) of each of the attackers were chosen for each reflective session. Two of the clips showed a correct action by the attacker, and two showed an incorrect decision. Tactical knowledge was measured by problem representation with a verbal protocol. The members of the experimental group showed adaptations in long-term memory, significantly improving their tactical knowledge. With respect to conceptual content, there was an increase in the total number of conditions verbalized by the players; with respect to conceptual sophistication, there was an increase in the indication of appropriate conditions with two or more details; and finally, with respect to conceptual structure, there was an increase in the use of double or triple conceptual structures. The intervention program, based on video feedback and questioning, in addition to on-court training sessions of expert volleyball players, appears to improve the athletes' tactical knowledge. © The Author(s) 2016.

  17. Selection Input Output by Restriction Using DEA Models Based on a Fuzzy Delphi Approach and Expert Information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arsad, Roslah; Nasir Abdullah, Mohammad; Alias, Suriana; Isa, Zaidi

    2017-09-01

    Stock evaluation has always been an interesting problem for investors. In this paper, a comparison regarding the efficiency stocks of listed companies in Bursa Malaysia were made through the application of estimation method of Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). One of the interesting research subjects in DEA is the selection of appropriate input and output parameter. In this study, DEA was used to measure efficiency of stocks of listed companies in Bursa Malaysia in terms of the financial ratio to evaluate performance of stocks. Based on previous studies and Fuzzy Delphi Method (FDM), the most important financial ratio was selected. The results indicated that return on equity, return on assets, net profit margin, operating profit margin, earnings per share, price to earnings and debt to equity were the most important ratios. Using expert information, all the parameter were clarified as inputs and outputs. The main objectives were to identify most critical financial ratio, clarify them based on expert information and compute the relative efficiency scores of stocks as well as rank them in the construction industry and material completely. The methods of analysis using Alirezaee and Afsharian’s model were employed in this study, where the originality of Charnes, Cooper and Rhodes (CCR) with the assumption of Constant Return to Scale (CSR) still holds. This method of ranking relative efficiency of decision making units (DMUs) was value-added by the Balance Index. The interested data was made for year 2015 and the population of the research includes accepted companies in stock markets in the construction industry and material (63 companies). According to the ranking, the proposed model can rank completely for 63 companies using selected financial ratio.

  18. Hemodynamic behavior modeling of a Virtual Surgical Patient based on a Fuzzy Expert System.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paulo Farias Paiva

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available The Virtual Reality (VR allows its users to experience a sense of being immersed in synthetic 3D scenarios generated by computer graphics. The so-called Virtual Environments (VEs based on RV can be applied to medical education, enabling: repetitive training and the development of psychomotor skills in surgical procedures without compromising real patients. Surgical simulators that feature Dynamic Virtual Patients (VPs, that is, reacts physiologically to interventions and medical decisions made during the training. These systems present more realism while it offers the possibility of varying clinical cases. This work has as main objective to discuss important issues of modeling the hemodynamic performance of a VP, specifically to simulate blood pressure values (both sistolic and diastolic variables. The model of a VP is presented as result as well as is presented an architecture for its integration to simulators based on VR.

  19. Fuzzy Logic-based expert system for evaluating cake quality of freeze-dried formulations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Trnka, Hjalte; Wu, Jian-Xiong; van de Weert, Marco

    2013-01-01

    Freeze-drying of peptide and protein-based pharmaceuticals is an increasingly important field of research. The diverse nature of these compounds, limited understanding of excipient functionality, and difficult-to-analyze quality attributes together with the increasing importance of the biosimilar......Freeze-drying of peptide and protein-based pharmaceuticals is an increasingly important field of research. The diverse nature of these compounds, limited understanding of excipient functionality, and difficult-to-analyze quality attributes together with the increasing importance...... critical visual features such as the degree of cake collapse, glassiness, and color uniformity. On the basis of the IA outputs, a fuzzy logic system for analysis of these freeze-dried cakes was constructed. After this development phase, the system was tested with a new screening well plate. The developed...

  20. Fuzzy Logic-based expert system for evaluating cake quality of freeze-dried formulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trnka, Hjalte; Wu, Jian X; Van De Weert, Marco; Grohganz, Holger; Rantanen, Jukka

    2013-12-01

    Freeze-drying of peptide and protein-based pharmaceuticals is an increasingly important field of research. The diverse nature of these compounds, limited understanding of excipient functionality, and difficult-to-analyze quality attributes together with the increasing importance of the biosimilarity concept complicate the development phase of safe and cost-effective drug products. To streamline the development phase and to make high-throughput formulation screening possible, efficient solutions for analyzing critical quality attributes such as cake quality with minimal material consumption are needed. The aim of this study was to develop a fuzzy logic system based on image analysis (IA) for analyzing cake quality. Freeze-dried samples with different visual quality attributes were prepared in well plates. Imaging solutions together with image analytical routines were developed for extracting critical visual features such as the degree of cake collapse, glassiness, and color uniformity. On the basis of the IA outputs, a fuzzy logic system for analysis of these freeze-dried cakes was constructed. After this development phase, the system was tested with a new screening well plate. The developed fuzzy logic-based system was found to give comparable quality scores with visual evaluation, making high-throughput classification of cake quality possible. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. and the American Pharmacists Association.

  1. Expert Advisor (EA) Evaluation System Using Web-based ELECTRE Method in Foreign Exchange (Forex) Market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Satibi; Widodo, Catur Edi; Farikhin

    2018-02-01

    This research aims to optimize forex trading profit automatically using EA but its still keep considering accuracy and drawdown levels. The evaluation system will classify EA performance based on trading market sessions (Sydney, Tokyo, London and New York) to determine the right EA to be used in certain market sessions. This evaluation system is a web-based ELECTRE methods that interact in real-time with EA through web service and are able to present real-time charts performance dashboard using web socket protocol communications. Web applications are programmed using NodeJs. In the testing period, all EAs had been simulated 24 hours in all market sessions for three months, the best EA is valued by its profit, accuracy and drawdown criteria that calculated using web-based ELECTRE method. The ideas of this research are to compare the best EA on testing period with collaboration performances of each best classified EA by market sessions. This research uses three months historical data of EUR/USD as testing period and other 3 months as validation period. As a result, performance of collaboration four best EA classified by market sessions can increase profits percentage consistently in testing and validation periods and keep securing accuracy and drawdown levels.

  2. Expert Advisor (EA Evaluation System Using Web-based ELECTRE Method in Foreign Exchange (Forex Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Satibi Satibi

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available This research aims to optimize forex trading profit automatically using EA but its still keep considering accuracy and drawdown levels. The evaluation system will classify EA performance based on trading market sessions (Sydney, Tokyo, London and New York to determine the right EA to be used in certain market sessions. This evaluation system is a web-based ELECTRE methods that interact in real-time with EA through web service and are able to present real-time charts performance dashboard using web socket protocol communications. Web applications are programmed using NodeJs. In the testing period, all EAs had been simulated 24 hours in all market sessions for three months, the best EA is valued by its profit, accuracy and drawdown criteria that calculated using web-based ELECTRE method. The ideas of this research are to compare the best EA on testing period with collaboration performances of each best classified EA by market sessions. This research uses three months historical data of EUR/USD as testing period and other 3 months as validation period. As a result, performance of collaboration four best EA classified by market sessions can increase profits percentage consistently in testing and validation periods and keep securing accuracy and drawdown levels.

  3. Values in breast cancer screening: an empirical study with Australian experts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parker, Lisa; Rychetnik, Lucie; Carter, Stacy

    2015-01-01

    Objective To explore what Australian experts value in breast screening, how these values are conceptualised and prioritised, and how they inform experts’ reasoning and judgement about the Australian breast-screening programme. Design Qualitative study based on interviews with experts. Participants 33 experts, including clinicians, programme managers, policymakers, advocates and researchers selected for their recognisable influence in the Australian breast-screening setting. Setting Australian breast-screening policy, practice and research settings. Results Experts expressed 2 types of values: ethical values (about what was good, important or right) and epistemological values (about how evidence should be created and used). Ethical values included delivering benefit, avoiding harm, promoting autonomy, fairness, cost effectiveness, accountability, professionalism and transparency. Epistemological values informed experts’ arguments about prioritising and evaluating evidence methodology, source population and professional interests. Some values were conceptualised differently by experts: for example, delivering benefit could mean reducing breast cancer mortality, reducing all-cause mortality, reducing mortality in younger women, reducing need for aggressive treatment, and/or reassuring women they were cancer free. When values came into conflict, experts prioritised them differently: for example, when experts perceived a conflict between delivering benefits and promoting autonomy, there were differences in which value was prioritised. We explain the complexity of the relationship between held values and experts’ overall views on breast cancer screening. Conclusions Experts’ positions in breast screening are influenced by evidence and a wide range of ethical and epistemological values. We conclude that discussions about values should be a regular part of breast-screening review in order to build understanding between those who hold different positions, and

  4. Expert opinions on carbon dioxide capture and storage-A framing of uncertainties and possibilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hansson, Anders; Bryngelsson, Marten

    2009-01-01

    There are many uncertainties and knowledge gaps regarding the development of carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS)-e.g., when it comes to costs, life-cycle effects, storage capacity and permanence. In spite of these uncertainties and barriers, the CCS research community is generally very optimistic regarding CCS' development. The discrepancy between the uncertainties and the optimism is the point of departure in this study, which is based on interviews with 24 CCS experts. The aim is to analyse experts' framings of CCS with focus on two key aspects: (i) the function and potential of CCS and (ii) uncertainties. The optimism among the CCS experts is tentatively explained. The interpretative flexibility of CCS is claimed to be an essential explanation for the optimism. CCS is promoted from a wide variety of perspectives, e.g., solidarity and peace, bridge to a sustainable energy system, sustaining the modern lifestyle and compatibility with the fossil fuel lock-in. Awareness of the uncertainties and potential over-optimism is warranted within policy and decision making as they often rely on scientific forecasts and experts' judgements.

  5. Expert opinions on carbon dioxide capture and storage. A framing of uncertainties and possibilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hansson, Anders [Linkoeping University, Department of Technology and Social Change, SE-58183 Linkoeping (Sweden); Bryngelsson, Maarten [KTH, School of Chemical Sciences, Teknikringen 50, SE-10044 Stockholm (Sweden)

    2009-06-15

    There are many uncertainties and knowledge gaps regarding the development of carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) - e.g., when it comes to costs, life-cycle effects, storage capacity and permanence. In spite of these uncertainties and barriers, the CCS research community is generally very optimistic regarding CCS' development. The discrepancy between the uncertainties and the optimism is the point of departure in this study, which is based on interviews with 24 CCS experts. The aim is to analyse experts' framings of CCS with focus on two key aspects: (1) the function and potential of CCS and (2) uncertainties. The optimism among the CCS experts is tentatively explained. The interpretative flexibility of CCS is claimed to be an essential explanation for the optimism. CCS is promoted from a wide variety of perspectives, e.g., solidarity and peace, bridge to a sustainable energy system, sustaining the modern lifestyle and compatibility with the fossil fuel lock-in. Awareness of the uncertainties and potential over-optimism is warranted within policy and decision making as they often rely on scientific forecasts and experts' judgements. (author)

  6. Expert opinions on carbon dioxide capture and storage-A framing of uncertainties and possibilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hansson, Anders [Linkoeping University, Department of Technology and Social Change, SE-58183 Linkoeping (Sweden); Linkoeping University, Centre for Climate Science and Policy Research, SE-60174 Norrkoeping (Sweden); Bryngelsson, Marten [KTH, School of Chemical Sciences, Teknikringen 50, SE-10044 Stockholm (Sweden)], E-mail: mrtn@kth.se

    2009-06-15

    There are many uncertainties and knowledge gaps regarding the development of carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS)-e.g., when it comes to costs, life-cycle effects, storage capacity and permanence. In spite of these uncertainties and barriers, the CCS research community is generally very optimistic regarding CCS' development. The discrepancy between the uncertainties and the optimism is the point of departure in this study, which is based on interviews with 24 CCS experts. The aim is to analyse experts' framings of CCS with focus on two key aspects: (i) the function and potential of CCS and (ii) uncertainties. The optimism among the CCS experts is tentatively explained. The interpretative flexibility of CCS is claimed to be an essential explanation for the optimism. CCS is promoted from a wide variety of perspectives, e.g., solidarity and peace, bridge to a sustainable energy system, sustaining the modern lifestyle and compatibility with the fossil fuel lock-in. Awareness of the uncertainties and potential over-optimism is warranted within policy and decision making as they often rely on scientific forecasts and experts' judgements.

  7. An Approach to Verifying Completeness and Consistency in a Rule-Based Expert System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1982-08-01

    peolea with the se e S knowlede base by observing en t om. W0hile thorough testing is an "samt4 Pert of V*flfyL the ooIlst4ftl and capleteness of a...physicians at Stanford’s Oncology Day Care Center on the management of patients who are on experimental treatment protocols. These protocols serve to...for oncology protocol management . Prooceedings of 7th IJCAI, pp. 876- 881, Vancouver, B.C., August 1981. I. van Melle, W. A Domain-Independent system

  8. The MMPI Assistant: A Microcomputer Based Expert System to Assist in Interpreting MMPI Profiles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanner, Barry A.

    1989-01-01

    The Assistant is an MS DOS program to aid clinical psychologists in interpreting the results of the Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory (MMPI). Interpretive hypotheses are based on the professional literature and the author's experience. After scores are entered manually, the Assistant produces a hard copy which is intended for use by a psychologist knowledgeable about the MMPI. The rules for each hypothesis appear first on the monitor, and then in the printed output, followed by the patient's scores on the relevant scales, and narrative hypotheses for the scores. The data base includes hypotheses for 23 validity configurations, 45 two-point clinical codes, 10 high scoring single-point clinical scales, and 10 low scoring single-point clinical scales. The program can accelerate the production of test reports, while insuring that actuarial rules are not overlooked. It has been especially useful as a teaching tool with graduate students. The Assistant requires an IBM PC compatible with 128k available memory, DOS 2.x or higher, and a printer.

  9. A distributed agent architecture for real-time knowledge-based systems: Real-time expert systems project, phase 1

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, S. Daniel

    1990-01-01

    We propose a distributed agent architecture (DAA) that can support a variety of paradigms based on both traditional real-time computing and artificial intelligence. DAA consists of distributed agents that are classified into two categories: reactive and cognitive. Reactive agents can be implemented directly in Ada to meet hard real-time requirements and be deployed on on-board embedded processors. A traditional real-time computing methodology under consideration is the rate monotonic theory that can guarantee schedulability based on analytical methods. AI techniques under consideration for reactive agents are approximate or anytime reasoning that can be implemented using Bayesian belief networks as in Guardian. Cognitive agents are traditional expert systems that can be implemented in ART-Ada to meet soft real-time requirements. During the initial design of cognitive agents, it is critical to consider the migration path that would allow initial deployment on ground-based workstations with eventual deployment on on-board processors. ART-Ada technology enables this migration while Lisp-based technologies make it difficult if not impossible. In addition to reactive and cognitive agents, a meta-level agent would be needed to coordinate multiple agents and to provide meta-level control.

  10. Moral Schemas and Tacit Judgement or How the Defining Issues Test Is Supported by Cognitive Science.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Narvaez, Darcia; Bock, Tonia

    2002-01-01

    Discusses three core moral judgement ideas: (1) modern schema theory, (2) automatic decision-making frequency, and (3) implicit processes as the default mode of human information processing. Compares the Defining Issues Test (measures the beginnings of moral judgement) and the Lawrence Kohlberg Moral Judgement Interview (measures the highest level…

  11. Ofsted's Judgement of Parental Engagement: A Justification of Its Place in Leadership and Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodall, Janet

    2015-01-01

    This article considers the recent change to Ofsted's inspection criteria, which now includes a judgement on schools' engagement with parents as part of the overall Leadership and Management judgement. The article argues that this is the correct place for this judgement, linking effective parental engagement with the development of a broad and…

  12. Empirical guidelines for forest management decision support systems based on the past experiences of the expert's community

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marques, A. F.; Ficko, A.; Kangas, A.; Rosset, C.; Ferreti, F.; Rasinmaki, J.; Packalen, T.; Gordom, S.

    2013-09-01

    Aim of the study: Decision support systems for forest management (FMDSS) have been developed world wide to account for a broad range of forest ecosystems, management goals and organizational frameworks (e.g. the wiki page of the FORSYS project reports 62 existing FMDSSs from 23 countries). The need to enhance the collaboration among this diverse community of developers and users fostered the rise of new group communication processes that could capture useful knowledge from past experiences in order to efficiently provide it to new FMDSS development efforts. Material and methods: This paper presents and tests an exploratory process aiming to identify the empirical guidelines assisting developers and users of FMDSS. This process encompasses a Delphi survey built upon the consolidation of the lessons-learned statements that summarize the past experiences of the experts involved in the FORSYS project. The experts come from 34 countries and have diverse interests, ranging from forest planners, IT developers, social scientists studying participatory planning, and researchers with interests in knowledge management and in quantitative models for forest planning. Main results: The proposed 37 empirical guidelines that group 102 lessons-learned cover a broad range of issues including the DSS development cycle, involvement of the stakeholders, methods, models and knowledge based techniques in use. Research highlights: These results may be used for improving new FMDSS development processes, teaching and training and further suggest new features of FMDSS and future research topics. Furthermore, the guidelines may constitute a knowledge repository that may be continuously improved by a community of practice. (Author)

  13. Time and order estimation of paintings based on visual features and expert priors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cabral, Ricardo S.; Costeira, João P.; de La Torre, Fernando; Bernardino, Alexandre; Carneiro, Gustavo

    2011-03-01

    Time and order are considered crucial information in the art domain, and subject of many research efforts by historians. In this paper, we present a framework for estimating the ordering and date information of paintings and drawings. We formulate this problem as the embedding into a one dimension manifold, which aims to place paintings far or close to each other according to a measure of similarity. Our formulation can be seen as a manifold learning algorithm, albeit properly adapted to deal with existing questions in the art community. To solve this problem, we propose an approach based in Laplacian Eigenmaps and a convex optimization formulation. Both methods are able to incorporate art expertise as priors to the estimation, in the form of constraints. Types of information include exact or approximate dating and partial orderings. We explore the use of soft penalty terms to allow for constraint violation to account for the fact that prior knowledge may contain small errors. Our problem is tested within the scope of the PrintART project, which aims to assist art historians in tracing Portuguese Tile art "Azulejos" back to the engravings that inspired them. Furthermore, we describe other possible applications where time information (and hence, this method) could be of use in art history, fake detection or curatorial treatment.

  14. Integrative oncology for breast cancer patients: introduction of an expert-based model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dobos, Gustav J; Voiss, Petra; Schwidde, Ilka; Choi, Kyung-Eun; Paul, Anna; Kirschbaum, Barbara; Saha, Felix J; Kuemmel, Sherko

    2012-01-01

    Malignant breast neoplasms are among the most frequent forms of cancer in the Western world. Conventional treatment of breast cancer may include surgery, hormonal therapy, chemotherapy, radiation and/or immunotherapy, all of which are often accompanied by severe side effects. Complementary and alternative medicine (CAM) treatments have been shown to be effective in alleviating those symptoms. Furthermore, with patient survival rates increasing, oncologists, psychologists and other therapists have to become more sensitive to the needs of cancer survivors that go beyond than the mere alleviation of symptoms. Many CAM methods are geared to treat the patient in a holistic manner and thus are also concerned with the patient’s psychological and spiritual needs. The use of certain CAM methods may become problematic when, as frequently occurs, patients use them indiscriminately and without informing their oncologists. Herbal medicines and dietary supplements, especially, may interfere with primary cancer treatments or have other detrimental effects. Thus, expertise in this highly specialized field of integrative medicine should be available to patients so that they can be advised about the benefits and negative effects of such preparations and practices. Being a beneficial combination of conventional and CAM care, integrative oncology makes possible the holistic approach to cancer care. The concept of integrative oncology for breast cancer is jointly practiced by the Department of Internal and Integrative Medicine, Kliniken Essen-Mitte, academic teaching hospital of the University of Duisburg-Essen, and the Breast Center at Kliniken Essen-Mitte in Germany. This model is introduced here; its scope is reviewed, and its possible implications for the practice of integrative medicine are discussed. Evidence-based integrative care is crucial to the field of oncology in establishing state-of-the-art care for breast cancer patients

  15. The International Accounting Standards Board’s Progress in Promoting Judgement Through Objectives-Oriented Accounting Standards

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tanja Lakovic

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available This study analyzes how the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB promotes professional judgement by issuing objectives-oriented accounting standards and exposure drafts.  We focus on the the role of judgement as outlined in Phase I of the IASB Conceptual Framework (CF, Chapter 1, “Objective of General Purpose Financial Statements” and Chapter 3, “Qualitative Characteristics of Useful Financial Information” (IASB 2010. We discuss how the framework, when viewed through the prism of 'objectives-oriented accounting standards' as recommended by the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC Report in its “Study Pursuant to Section 108(d of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002 on the Adoption by the United States Financial Reporting System of a Principles-Based Accounting System” (July 2003, encourages professional judgement. We analyze International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS and Exposure Drafts (ED issued by the IASB since its inception in 2002 to determine if those documents are consistent with objectives-oriented accounting standards. Our analysis is useful for gaining insights into how the IASB integrates the CF with the SEC’s recommended objectives-oriented accounting approach to promote judgement in the interest of IASB/FASB convergence of accounting standards.

  16. Mentor judgements and decision-making in the assessment of student nurse competence in practice: A mixed-methods study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burden, Sarah; Topping, Anne Elizabeth; O'Halloran, Catherine

    2018-05-01

    To investigate how mentors form judgements and reach summative assessment decisions regarding student competence in practice. Competence assessment is a significant component of pre-registration nursing programmes in the United Kingdom. Concerns exist that assessments are subjective, lack consistency and that mentors fail to judge student performance as unsatisfactory. A two-stage sequential embedded mixed-methods design. Data collected 2012-2013. This study involved a whole student cohort completing a UK undergraduate adult nursing programme (N = 41). Stage 1: quantitative data on mentor conduct of assessment interviews and the final decision recorded (N = 330 from 270 mentors) were extracted from student Practice Assessment Documents (PADs). Stage 2: mentor feedback in student PADs was used in Stimulated Recall interviews with a purposive sample of final placement mentors (N = 17). These were thematically analysed. Findings were integrated to develop a theoretically driven model of mentor decision-making. Course assessment strategies and documentation had limited effect in framing mentor judgements and decisions. Rather, mentors amassed impressions, moderated by expectations of an "idealized student" by practice area and programme stage that influenced their management and outcome of the assessment process. These impressions were accumulated and combined into judgements that informed the final decision. This process can best be understood and conceptualized through the Brunswik's lens model of social judgement. Mentor decisions were reasoned and there was a shared understanding of judgement criteria and their importance. This impression-based nature of mentor decision-making questions the reliability and validity of competency-based assessments used in nursing pre-registration programmes. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  17. Physiotherapy movement based classification approaches to low back pain: comparison of subgroups through review and developer/expert survey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karayannis Nicholas V

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Several classification schemes, each with its own philosophy and categorizing method, subgroup low back pain (LBP patients with the intent to guide treatment. Physiotherapy derived schemes usually have a movement impairment focus, but the extent to which other biological, psychological, and social factors of pain are encompassed requires exploration. Furthermore, within the prevailing 'biological' domain, the overlap of subgrouping strategies within the orthopaedic examination remains unexplored. The aim of this study was "to review and clarify through developer/expert survey, the theoretical basis and content of physical movement classification schemes, determine their relative reliability and similarities/differences, and to consider the extent of incorporation of the bio-psycho-social framework within the schemes". Methods A database search for relevant articles related to LBP and subgrouping or classification was conducted. Five dominant movement-based schemes were identified: Mechanical Diagnosis and Treatment (MDT, Treatment Based Classification (TBC, Pathoanatomic Based Classification (PBC, Movement System Impairment Classification (MSI, and O'Sullivan Classification System (OCS schemes. Data were extracted and a survey sent to the classification scheme developers/experts to clarify operational criteria, reliability, decision-making, and converging/diverging elements between schemes. Survey results were integrated into the review and approval obtained for accuracy. Results Considerable diversity exists between schemes in how movement informs subgrouping and in the consideration of broader neurosensory, cognitive, emotional, and behavioural dimensions of LBP. Despite differences in assessment philosophy, a common element lies in their objective to identify a movement pattern related to a pain reduction strategy. Two dominant movement paradigms emerge: (i loading strategies (MDT, TBC, PBC aimed at eliciting a phenomenon

  18. Interaction between gaze and visual and proprioceptive position judgements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fiehler, Katja; Rösler, Frank; Henriques, Denise Y P

    2010-06-01

    There is considerable evidence that targets for action are represented in a dynamic gaze-centered frame of reference, such that each gaze shift requires an internal updating of the target. Here, we investigated the effect of eye movements on the spatial representation of targets used for position judgements. Participants had their hand passively placed to a location, and then judged whether this location was left or right of a remembered visual or remembered proprioceptive target, while gaze direction was varied. Estimates of position of the remembered targets relative to the unseen position of the hand were assessed with an adaptive psychophysical procedure. These positional judgements significantly varied relative to gaze for both remembered visual and remembered proprioceptive targets. Our results suggest that relative target positions may also be represented in eye-centered coordinates. This implies similar spatial reference frames for action control and space perception when positions are coded relative to the hand.

  19. Nephrus: expert system model in intelligent multilayers for evaluation of urinary system based on scintigraphic image analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silva, Jorge Wagner Esteves da; Schirru, Roberto; Boasquevisque, Edson Mendes

    1999-01-01

    Renal function can be measured noninvasively with radionuclides in a extremely safe way compared to other diagnosis techniques. Nevertheless, due to the fact that radioactive materials are used in this procedure, it is necessary to maximize its benefits, therefore all efforts are justifiable in the development of data analysis support tools for this diagnosis modality. The objective of this work is to develop a prototype for a system model based on Artificial Intelligence devices able to perform functions related to cintilographic image analysis of the urinary system. Rules used by medical experts in the analysis of images obtained with 99m Tc+DTPA and /or 99m Tc+DMSA were modeled and a Neural Network diagnosis technique was implemented. Special attention was given for designing programs user-interface. Human Factor Engineering techniques were taking in account allowing friendliness and robustness. The image segmentation adopts a model based on Ideal ROIs, which represent the normal anatomic concept for urinary system organs. Results obtained using Artificial Neural Networks for qualitative image analysis and knowledge model constructed show the feasibility of Artificial Neural Networks for qualitative image analysis and knowledge model constructed show feasibility of Artificial Intelligence implementation that uses inherent abilities of each technique in the medical diagnosis image analysis. (author)

  20. Muscle Injuries in Sports: A New Evidence-Informed and Expert Consensus-Based Classification with Clinical Application.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valle, Xavier; Alentorn-Geli, Eduard; Tol, Johannes L; Hamilton, Bruce; Garrett, William E; Pruna, Ricard; Til, Lluís; Gutierrez, Josep Antoni; Alomar, Xavier; Balius, Ramón; Malliaropoulos, Nikos; Monllau, Joan Carles; Whiteley, Rodney; Witvrouw, Erik; Samuelsson, Kristian; Rodas, Gil

    2017-07-01

    Muscle injuries are among the most common injuries in sport and continue to be a major concern because of training and competition time loss, challenging decision making regarding treatment and return to sport, and a relatively high recurrence rate. An adequate classification of muscle injury is essential for a full understanding of the injury and to optimize its management and return-to-play process. The ongoing failure to establish a classification system with broad acceptance has resulted from factors such as limited clinical applicability, and the inclusion of subjective findings and ambiguous terminology. The purpose of this article was to describe a classification system for muscle injuries with easy clinical application, adequate grouping of injuries with similar functional impairment, and potential prognostic value. This evidence-informed and expert consensus-based classification system for muscle injuries is based on a four-letter initialism system: MLG-R, respectively referring to the mechanism of injury (M), location of injury (L), grading of severity (G), and number of muscle re-injuries (R). The goal of the classification is to enhance communication between healthcare and sports-related professionals and facilitate rehabilitation and return-to-play decision making.

  1. Factors influencing nurses' judgements about self-neglect cases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lauder, W; Ludwick, R; Zeller, R; Winchell, J

    2006-06-01

    From the perspective of the practising nurse self-neglect may best be understood in terms of a set of complex and often poorly defined clinical problems in which two key clinical issues are "how do I judge whether this person has the capacity to make decisions about their lifestyle?" and "do we need to treat this person using mental health legislation?" These are taxing questions as judging if a patient has the capacity to make decisions about their lifestyle choices is difficult for even the most experienced clinicians. Such determinations require nurses to form a judgement as to mental capacity of the patient. We do not know what patient characteristics and in what combination nurses use these when making these judgements. This factorial survey aimed to identify which patient characteristics influenced Registered Nurses' judgements on decision-making capacity and decisions on the use of interventions which require statutory interventions in cases of self-neglect. Judgements on decision-making capacity were overwhelmingly predicted by information of the patients' mental health status. Nurses place patients in one of three broad categories of no mental illness, minor mental illness and severe mental illness. This categorization appears to operate as a fast and frugal heuristic indicating that nurses may use mental status as a cognitive screen to work from in judging self-neglect. Although there is a correlation between the severity of mental illness and the capacity for making decisions they are not the same. This study shows the continued work that needs done in educating nurses not only about self-neglect but also about the role a patient's mental status may have in assessment of problems.

  2. Teaching practical wisdom in medicine through clinical judgement, goals of care, and ethical reasoning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaldjian, Lauris Christopher

    2010-09-01

    Clinical decision making is a challenging task that requires practical wisdom-the practised ability to help patients choose wisely among available diagnostic and treatment options. But practical wisdom is not a concept one typically hears mentioned in medical training and practice. Instead, emphasis is placed on clinical judgement. The author draws from Aristotle and Aquinas to describe the virtue of practical wisdom and compare it with clinical judgement. From this comparison, the author suggests that a more complete understanding of clinical judgement requires its explicit integration with goals of care and ethical values. Although clinicians may be justified in assuming that goals of care and ethical values are implicit in routine decision making, it remains important for training purposes to encourage habits of clinical judgement that are consciously goal-directed and ethically informed. By connecting clinical judgement to patients' goals and values, clinical decisions are more likely to stay focused on the particular interests of individual patients. To cultivate wise clinical judgement among trainees, educational efforts should aim at the integration of clinical judgement, communication with patients about goals of care, and ethical reasoning. But ultimately, training in wise clinical judgement will take years of practice in the company of experienced clinicians who are able to demonstrate practical wisdom by example. By helping trainees develop clinical judgement that incorporates patients' goals of care and ethical reasoning, we may help lessen the risk that 'clinical judgement' will merely express 'the clinician's judgement.'

  3. Are teachers' judgements of pupils' ability influenced by body shape?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shackleton, N L; Campbell, T

    2014-04-01

    Evidence indicates that teachers can judge pupils on the basis of their physical appearance, including their body shape. Teacher bias towards obese pupils has been suggested as a potential pathway through which obese children attain relatively lower academic levels. The aim of this study was to investigate whether teachers' judgements of pupils' ability are influenced by the body shape of the child. The sample includes English, singleton children in state schools from the Millennium Cohort Study. The data were taken from the fourth wave of data collection, when the children were approximately 7 years old. In all, 5086/5072 children had teacher ability ratings of reading and maths. Logistic regression analyses were used to test whether teachers' perceptions of the child's reading and mathematics ability were influenced by the pupil's waist circumference, conditional upon cognitive test scores of reading and maths ability. After adjustment for cognitive test scores, no significant overall relationship was found between the pupil's waist circumference and the teacher's judgements of ability. No statistically significant differences were observed in the probability of being judged as above average after further adjustments were made for potential confounders. There is little evidence that teachers' judgements of pupils' ability are influenced by obesity.

  4. Online-Expert: An Expert System for Online Database Selection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zahir, Sajjad; Chang, Chew Lik

    1992-01-01

    Describes the design and development of a prototype expert system called ONLINE-EXPERT that helps users select online databases and vendors that meet users' needs. Search strategies are discussed; knowledge acquisition and knowledge bases are described; and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), a decision analysis technique that ranks databases,…

  5. Expert system in PNC, 5

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tobita, Yoshimasa; Yamaguchi, Takashi; Matsumoto, Mitsuo; Ono, Kiyoshi.

    1990-01-01

    The computer code system which can evaluate the mass balance and cycle cost in nuclear fuel cycle has been developing a PNC using an artificial intelligence technique. This system is composed of the expert system, data base and analysis codes. The expert system is the most important one in the system and the content of the expert system is explained in this paper. The expert system has the three functions. The first is the function of understanding the meaning of user's questions by natural language, the second is the function of selecting the best way to solve the problem given by the user using the knowledge which is already installed in the system, and the last is the function of answering the questions. The knowledge of the experts installed in the expert system is represented by the frame-type rules. Therefore, the knowledge will be simply added to the system, and consequently the system will be easily extended. (author)

  6. Expert Systems: An Overview for Teacher-Librarians.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orwig, Gary; Barron, Ann

    1992-01-01

    Provides an overview of expert systems for teacher librarians. Highlights include artificial intelligence and expert systems; the development of the MYCIN medical expert system; rule-based expert systems; the use of expert system shells to develop a specific system; and how to select an appropriate application for an expert system. (11 references)…

  7. Development and testing of a prototype NPP information system based on the G2 expert system shell

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vegh, J.; Bodnar, M.; Brueger, L.; Tanyi, M.; Sefcsik, F.

    1994-01-01

    The components and functioning of the GPCS information system is described as applied for process monitoring and alarm generation in WWER-440 type nuclear power plant. The prototype system was developed by using the G2 real-time expert system shell, measurements were simulated by a WWER-440 compact simulator and by the archive replay of a core monitoring system. The benefits of the object oriented technology description, expert system approach and information integration are emphasized. (author) 21 refs.; 17 figs

  8. An expert system for the conception of industrial gauges based on beta, gamma or X ray transmission (JANU)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tola, F.

    2000-01-01

    A knowledge based software (named JANU expert system) for radiogauges design mainly density, thickness, mass per unit area, level and two-phase flows gauges, was prepared recently. Its aim is to optimise the different components of a transmission gauge (radioactive source, detector, electronic device, collimators and shielding), taking into account parameters and constraints linked to the configuration (nature and composition of materials, presence of shields and walls, ...), as well as users requirements (accuracy, counting time, beam collimating, duration of tests, ...). The database includes characteristics of radionuclides and industrial sources, photon cross sections, build-up factors, specific dose constants, physical properties of elements, usual scintillation detectors and shielding materials. It allows the determination of the most suited emitter, as well as a precise characterisation of a given emitter, including required source activity, expected counting rates, dose rates, etc. It has been extended to X rays generators, voltage and current intensity replacing in this case the energy and activity of the source. Information supplied by JANU has been validated by applications developed during the past 30 years. Its choices have always revealed most judicious and in general, numerical results in good agreement with experiments. Thus, it has become an essential and reliable tool for gauge designers. (author)

  9. A first-principles generic methodology for representing the knowledge base of a process diagnostic expert system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reifman, J.; Briggs, L.L.; Wei, T.Y.C.

    1990-01-01

    In this paper we present a methodology for identifying faulty component candidates of process malfunctions through basic physical principles of conservation, functional classification of components and information from the process schematics. The basic principles of macroscopic balance of mass, momentum and energy in thermal hydraulic control volumes are applied in a novel approach to incorporate deep knowledge into the knowledge base. Additional deep knowledge is incorporated through the functional classification of process components according to their influence in disturbing the macroscopic balance equations. Information from the process schematics is applied to identify the faulty component candidates after the type of imbalance in the control volumes is matched against the functional classification of the components. Except for the information from the process schematics, this approach is completely general and independent of the process under consideration. The use of basic first-principles, which are physically correct, and the process-independent architecture of the diagnosis procedure allow for the verification and validation of the system. A prototype process diagnosis expert system is developed and a test problem is presented to identify faulty component candidates in the presence of a single failure in a hypothetical balance of plant of a liquid metal nuclear reactor plant

  10. Technology Development of Salak (Salacca Zalacca) Chips With Vacuum Frying Machine Base On Expert System In Kramat-Bangkalan Regency

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosida, D. F.; Happyanto; Anggraeni; Sugiarto; Hapsari

    2018-01-01

    Agropolitan Program is one form of regional development to improve agribusiness system and effort to improve the welfare of the community. One of the leading commodities in Bangkalan agroclimates is salak which is a potentially very large commodity to be developed. Salak commodities in Kramat Bangkalan Indonesia have developed varous salak produced such as dates of salak, syrup and dodol salak. Salak chips was the target of innovation from processed salak. The Production of salak chips using frying technology with vacuum system to obtain crunchy chips. To get the results need to be developed synergy technology to combine the process conditions and the right system in producing good quality salak chips. Bangkalan Regency is the potential to continue to develop products using a variety of salak to the processed form of vacuum frying machine based on expert system so that the resulting product would be great texture, aroma and taste. This will make the area of Bangkalan, Indonesia be more independent in producing and increasing revenue.

  11. Genotoxicity Expert Panel review: weight of evidence evaluation of the genotoxicity of glyphosate, glyphosate-based formulations, and aminomethylphosphonic acid.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brusick, David; Aardema, Marilyn; Kier, Larry; Kirkland, David; Williams, Gary

    2016-09-01

    In 2015, the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) published a monograph concluding there was strong evidence for genotoxicity of glyphosate and glyphosate formulations and moderate evidence for genotoxicity of the metabolite aminomethylphosphonic acid (AMPA). These conclusions contradicted earlier extensive reviews supporting the lack of genotoxicity of glyphosate and glyphosate formulations. The IARC Monograph concluded there was strong evidence of induction of oxidative stress by glyphosate, glyphosate formulations, and AMPA. The Expert Panel reviewed the genotoxicity and oxidative stress data considered in the IARC Monograph, together with other available data not considered by IARC. The Expert Panel defined and used a weight of evidence (WoE) approach that included ranking of studies and endpoints by the strength of their linkage to events associated with carcinogenic mechanisms. Importantly, the Expert Panel concluded that there was sufficient information available from a very large number of regulatory genotoxicity studies that should have been considered by IARC. The WoE approach, the inclusion of all relevant regulatory studies, and some differences in interpretation of individual studies led to significantly different conclusions by the Expert Panel compared with the IARC Monograph. The Expert Panel concluded that glyphosate, glyphosate formulations, and AMPA do not pose a genotoxic hazard and the data do not support the IARC Monograph genotoxicity evaluation. With respect to carcinogenicity classification and mechanism, the Expert Panel concluded that evidence relating to an oxidative stress mechanism of carcinogenicity was largely unconvincing and that the data profiles were not consistent with the characteristics of genotoxic carcinogens.

  12. Expert Systems in Reference Services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roysdon, Christine, Ed.; White, Howard D., Ed.

    1989-01-01

    Eleven articles introduce expert systems applications in library and information science, and present design and implementation issues of system development for reference services. Topics covered include knowledge based systems, prototype development, the use of artificial intelligence to remedy current system inadequacies, and an expert system to…

  13. Geographic information systems-based expert system modelling for shoreline sensitivity to oil spill disaster in Rivers State, Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olanrewaju Lawal

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available In the absence of adequate and appropriate actions, hazards often result in disaster. Oil spills across any environment are very hazardous; thus, oil spill contingency planning is pertinent, supported by Environmental Sensitivity Index (ESI mapping. However, a significant data gap exists across many low- and middle-income countries in aspect of environmental monitoring. This study developed a geographic information system (GIS-based expert system (ES for shoreline sensitivity to oiling. It focused on the biophysical attributes of the shoreline with Rivers State as a case study. Data on elevation, soil, relative wave exposure and satellite imageries were collated and used for the development of ES decision rules within GIS. Results show that about 70% of the shoreline are lined with swamp forest/mangroves/nympa palm, and 97% have silt and clay as dominant sediment type. From the ES, six ranks were identified; 61% of the shoreline has a rank of 9 and 19% has a rank of 3 for shoreline sensitivity. A total of 568 km out of the 728 km shoreline is highly sensitive (ranks 7–10. There is a clear indication that the study area is a complex mixture of sensitive environments to oil spill. GIS-based ES with classification rules for shoreline sensitivity represents a rapid and flexible framework for automatic ranking of shoreline sensitivity to oiling. It is expected that this approach would kick-start sensitivity index mapping which is comprehensive and openly available to support disaster risk management around the oil producing regions of the country.

  14. Surgical experts: born or made?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sadideen, Hazim; Alvand, Abtin; Saadeddin, Munir; Kneebone, Roger

    2013-01-01

    The concept of surgical expertise and the processes involved in its development are topical, and there is a constant drive to identify reliable measures of expert performance in surgery. This review explores the notion of whether surgical experts are "born" or "made", with reference to educational theory and pertinent literature. Peer-reviewed publications, books, and online resources on surgical education, expertise and training were reviewed. Important themes and aspects of expertise acquisition were identified in order to better understand the concept of a surgical expert. The definition of surgical expertise and several important aspects of its development are highlighted. Innate talent plays an important role, but is insufficient on its own to produce a surgical expert. Multiple theories that explore motor skill acquisition and memory are relevant, and Ericsson's theory of the development of competence followed by deliberate self-practice has been especially influential. Psychomotor and non-technical skills are necessary for progression in the current climate in light of our training curricula; surgical experts are adaptive experts who excel in these. The literature suggests that surgical expertise is reached through practice; surgical experts are made, not born. A deeper understanding of the nature of expert performance and its development will ensure that surgical education training programmes are of the highest possible quality. Surgical educators should aim to develop an expertise-based approach, with expert performance as the benchmark. Copyright © 2013 Surgical Associates Ltd. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. The Desired Learning Outcomes of School-Based Nutrition/Physical Activity Health Education: A Health Literacy Constructed Delphi Survey of Finnish Experts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ormshaw, Michael James; Kokko, Sami Petteri; Villberg, Jari; Kannas, Lasse

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to utilise the collective opinion of a group of Finnish experts to identify the most important learning outcomes of secondary-level school-based health education, in the specific domains of physical activity and nutrition. Design/ Methodology/ Approach: The study uses a Delphi survey technique to collect the…

  16. Hearing the Signal in the Noise: A Software-Based Content Analysis of Patterns in Responses by Experts and Students to a New Venture Investment Proposal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hostager, Todd J.; Voiovich, Jason; Hughes, Raymond K.

    2013-01-01

    The authors apply a software-based content analysis method to uncover differences in responses by expert entrepreneurs and undergraduate entrepreneur majors to a new venture investment proposal. Data analyzed via the Leximancer software package yielded conceptual maps highlighting key differences in the nature of these responses. Study methods and…

  17. 77 FR 50172 - Expert Forum on the Use of Performance-Based Regulatory Models in the U.S. Oil and Gas Industry...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-08-20

    ... Transportation, Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA) invite interested parties to...] Expert Forum on the Use of Performance-Based Regulatory Models in the U.S. Oil and Gas Industry, Offshore... and gas industry. The meeting will take place at the College of the Mainland, and hosted by the Gulf...

  18. An Expert Instructor's Use of Social Congruence, Cognitive Congruence, and Expertise in an Online Case-Based Instructional Design Course

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watson, Sunnie Lee; Koehler, Adrie A.; Ertmer, Peggy; Kim, WooRi; Rico, Rudy

    2018-01-01

    Promoting and sustaining effective discussion--that which contributes to learning--is a skill that eludes many instructors (Darling-Hammond, 2008; Ge, Yamashiro, & Lee, 2000). This study explored the role and strategies of an expert instructor in an online advanced instructional design (ID) course that utilized a case-based learning (CBL)…

  19. Expert Guide

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heiselberg, Per

    , their benefits and limitations, economical feasibility and impact on energy savings, company image, comfort, productivity, building functionality and flexibility and gives guidance on design of these concepts, including integration of responsive building elements and HVAC-systems and build examples......This guide summarizes the work of Subtask B of IEA-ECBCS Annex 44 “Integrating Environmentally Responsive Elements in Buildings” and is based on the contributions from the participating countries. The publication is an official Annex report. With a focus on innovative building concepts...

  20. Expert opinion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ferrer, Marta; Boccon-Gibod, Isabelle; Gonçalo, Margarida

    2017-01-01

    Omalizumab (a recombinant, humanized anti-immunoglobulin-E antibody) has been shown in three pivotal Phase III trials (ASTERIA I, II and GLACIAL) and real-world studies to be effective and well-tolerated for the treatment of chronic spontaneous urticaria (CSU), and is the only licensed third......-line treatment for CSU. However, the definition of response to omalizumab treatment often differs between clinical trials, real-world studies, and daily practice of individual physicians globally. As such, a consensus definition of "complete", "partial" and "non-response" to omalizumab is required in order...... into a patient's disease burden and its changes during treatment. A potential omalizumab treatment approach based on speed and pattern of response at 1-3 and 3-6 months is suggested. In cases where there is no response during the first 1-3 months, physicians should consider reassessing the original CSU diagnosis...

  1. The reliability of structural systems operating at high temperature: Replacing engineering judgement with operational experience

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chevalier, M.J.; Smith, D.J.; Dean, D.W.

    2012-01-01

    Deterministic assessments are used to assess the integrity of structural systems operating at high temperature by providing a lower bound lifetime prediction, requiring considerable engineering judgement. However such a result may not satisfy the structural integrity assessment purpose if the results are overly conservative or conversely plant observations (such as failures) could undermine the assessment result if observed before the lower bound lifetime. This paper develops a reliability methodology for high temperature assessments and illustrates the impact and importance of managing the uncertainties within such an analysis. This is done by separating uncertainties into three classifications; aleatory uncertainty, quantifiable epistemic uncertainty and unquantifiable epistemic uncertainty. The result is a reliability model that can predict the behaviour of a structural system based upon plant observations, including failure and survival data. This can be used to reduce the over reliance upon engineering judgement which is prevalent in deterministic assessments. Highlights: ► Deterministic assessments are shown to be heavily reliant upon engineering judgment. ► Based upon the R5 procedure, a reliability model for a structural system is developed. ► Variables must be classified as either aleatory or epistemic to model their impact on reliability. ► Operation experience is then used to reduce reliance upon engineering judgment. ► This results in a model which can predict system behaviour and learn from operational experience.

  2. Naïve Bayes Approach for Expert System Design of Children Skin Identification Based on Android

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartatik; Purnomo, A.; Hartono, R.; Munawaroh, H.

    2018-03-01

    The development of technology gives some benefits to each person that we can use it properly and correctly. Technology has helped humans in every way. Such as the excess task of an expert in providing information or answers to a problem. Thus problem that often occurs is skin disease that affecting on child. That because the skin of children still vulnerable to the environment. The application was developed using the naïve Bayes algorithm. Through this application, users can consult with a system like an expert to know the symptoms that occur to the child and find the correct treatment to solve the problems.

  3. Is the secure base phenomenon evident here, there, and anywhere? A cross-cultural study of child behavior and experts' definitions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Posada, German; Lu, Ting; Trumbell, Jill; Kaloustian, Garene; Trudel, Marcel; Plata, Sandra J; Peña, Paola P; Perez, Jennifer; Tereno, Susana; Dugravier, Romain; Coppola, Gabrielle; Constantini, Alessandro; Cassibba, Rosalinda; Kondo-Ikemura, Kiyomi; Nóblega, Magaly; Haya, Ines M; Pedraglio, Claudia; Verissimo, Manuela; Santos, Antonio J; Monteiro, Ligia; Lay, Keng-Ling

    2013-01-01

    The evolutionary rationale offered by Bowlby implies that secure base relationships are common in child-caregiver dyads and thus, child secure behavior observable across diverse social contexts and cultures. This study offers a test of the universality hypothesis. Trained observers in nine countries used the Attachment Q-set to describe the organization of children's behavior in naturalistic settings. Children (N = 547) were 10-72 months old. Child development experts (N = 81) from all countries provided definitions of optimal child secure base use. Findings indicate that children from all countries use their mother as a secure base. Children's organization of secure base behavior was modestly related to each other both within and across countries. Experts' descriptions of the optimally attached child were highly similar across cultures. © 2013 The Authors. Child Development © 2013 Society for Research in Child Development, Inc.

  4. ExpertFOAF recommends experts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Iofcu, Tereza; Diederich, Joerg; Dolog, Peter

    2007-01-01

    FOAF files are often used for publishing simple information about persons and about their community. Our proposal is to extend the user's FOAF files with automatically generated user profiles, which are based on a histogram of the user's interest and which are also semantically enriched using...... recommender systems for finding users with similar interests and, hence, expertise in different domains. We consider a well-defined user profile to express best the user's current interests in a domain, where the domain (such as the research environment with students and professors) is defined by a collection...

  5. Expert system based on cases for a diagnosis system in real time; Sistema experto basado en casos para un sistema de diagnostico en tiempo real

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Espinosa R, Alfredo; Quintero R, Agustin; Zambrano D, S Venecia [Instituto de Investigaciones Electricas, Cuernavaca, Morelos (Mexico)

    2006-07-01

    This article presents the development of an Expert System based in the Reasoning Based on Cases methodology. Such system was performed with the purpose of creating an information system in charge of supervising and diagnosing the status of the main equipment of fossil fuel power plants for electricity generation. Here is presented the reasons why this methodology was used for the expert system and why Induce-It -the specialized tool that implements it- was also chosen, as well as the analysis made for the disposition of the operative architecture of the Expert System, the very development of this software architecture and, finally, the validation of the correct operation of this system by means of a simulator that simultaneously puts to the test the error handling of the Expert System. [Spanish] Este articulo presenta el procedimiento que siguio el desarrollo de un Sistema Experto asentado en la metodologia de Razonamiento Basado en Casos; realizado con el fin de crear un sistema de informacion encargado de supervisar y diagnosticar el estado de los equipos principales de centrales de generacion termoelectrica. Se expone justificadamente la seleccion de la metodologia del sistema experto y de la herramienta especializada que lo implementa (Induce-It), asi como el analisis realizado para la disposicion de la arquitectura operativa del Sistema Experto, el desarrollo mismo de esta arquitectura del software y, finalmente, la validacion del correcto funcionamiento de este sistema mediante un simulador que a la vez pone a prueba el manejo de errores del Sistema Experto.

  6. Horizon 2020 Priorities in Clinical Mental Health Research: Results of a Consensus-Based ROAMER Expert Survey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iman Elfeddali

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Within the ROAMER project, which aims to provide a Roadmap for Mental Health Research in Europe, a two-stage Delphi survey among 86 European experts was conducted in order to identify research priorities in clinical mental health research. Expert consensus existed with regard to the importance of three challenges in the field of clinical mental health research: (1 the development of new, safe and effective interventions for mental disorders; (2 understanding the mechanisms of disease in order to be able to develop such new interventions; and (3 defining outcomes (an improved set of outcomes, including alternative outcomes to use for clinical mental health research evaluation. Proposed actions involved increasing the utilization of tailored approaches (personalized medicine, developing blended eHealth/mHealth decision aids/guidance tools that help the clinician to choose between various treatment modalities, developing specific treatments in order to better target comorbidity and (further development of biological, psychological and psychopharmacological interventions. The experts indicated that addressing these priorities will result in increased efficacy and impact across Europe; with a high probability of success, given that Europe has important strengths, such as skilled academics and a long research history. Finally, the experts stressed the importance of creating funding and coordinated networking as essential action needed in order to target the variety of challenges in clinical mental health research.

  7. METHODS OF IMPROVING THE RELIABILITY OF THE CONTROL SYSTEM TRACTION POWER SUPPLY OF ELECTRIC TRANSPORT BASED ON AN EXPERT INFORMATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. O. Matusevych

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available The author proposed the numerous methods of solving the multi-criterion task – increasing of reliability of control system on the basis of expert information. The information, which allows choosing thoughtfully the method of reliability increasing for a control system of electric transport, is considered.

  8. You Get What You Need: An Examination of Purpose-Based Inheritance Reasoning in Undergraduates, Preschoolers, and Biological Experts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ware, Elizabeth A.; Gelman, Susan A.

    2014-01-01

    This set of seven experiments examines reasoning about the inheritance and acquisition of physical properties in preschoolers, undergraduates, and biology experts. Participants (N = 390) received adoption vignettes in which a baby animal was born to one parent but raised by a biologically unrelated parent, and they judged whether the offspring…

  9. The use of expert elicitation to quantify uncertainty in incomplete sorption data bases for Waste Isolation Pilot Plant performance assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anderson, D.R.; Trauth, K.M.; Hora, S.C.

    1991-01-01

    Iterative, annual performance-assessment calculations are being performed for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP), a planned underground repository in southeastern New Mexico, USA for the disposal of transuranic waste. The performance-assessment calculations estimate the long-term radionuclide releases from the disposal system to the accessible environment. Because direct experimental data in some areas are presently of insufficient quantity to form the basis for the required distributions. Expert judgment was used to estimate the concentrations of specific radionuclides in a brine exiting a repository room or drift as it migrates up an intruding borehole, and also the distribution coefficients that describe the retardation of radionuclides in the overlying Culebra Dolomite. The variables representing these concentrations and coefficients have been shown by 1990 sensitivity analyses to be among the set of parameters making the greatest contribution to the uncertainty in WIPP performance-assessment predictions. Utilizing available information, the experts (one expert panel addressed concentrations and a second panel addressed retardation) developed an understanding of the problem and were formally elicited to obtain probability distributions that characterize the uncertainty in fixed, but unknown, quantities. The probability distributions developed by the experts are being incorporated into the 1991 performance-assessment calculations. 16 refs., 4 tabs

  10. The Knowledge Base of Subject Matter Experts in Teaching: A Case Study of a Professional Scientist as a Beginning Teacher

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diezmann, Carmel M.; Watters, James J.

    2015-01-01

    One method of addressing the shortage of science and mathematics teachers is to train scientists and other science-related professionals to become teachers. Advocates argue that as discipline experts these career changers can relate the subject matter knowledge to various contexts and applications in teaching. In this paper, through interviews and…

  11. Arrested development: early prefrontal lesions impair the maturation of moral judgement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taber-Thomas, Bradley C; Asp, Erik W; Koenigs, Michael; Sutterer, Matthew; Anderson, Steven W; Tranel, Daniel

    2014-04-01

    Learning to make moral judgements based on considerations beyond self-interest is a fundamental aspect of moral development. A deficit in such learning is associated with poor socialization and criminal behaviour. The neural systems required for the acquisition and maturation of moral competency are not well understood. Here we show in a unique sample of neurological patients that focal lesions involving ventromedial prefrontal cortex, acquired during development, result in an abnormally egocentric pattern of moral judgement. In response to simple hypothetical moral scenarios, the patients were more likely than comparison participants to endorse self-interested actions that involved breaking moral rules or physically harming others in order to benefit themselves. This pattern (which we also found in subjects with psychopathy) differs from that of patients with adult-onset ventromedial prefrontal cortex lesions--the latter group showed normal rejection of egocentric rule violations. This novel contrast of patients with ventromedial prefrontal cortex lesions acquired during development versus during adulthood yields new evidence suggesting that the ventromedial prefrontal cortex is a critical neural substrate for the acquisition and maturation of moral competency that goes beyond self-interest to consider the welfare of others. Disruption to this affective neural system early in life interrupts moral development.

  12. Professional judgement and decision-making in adventure sports coaching: the role of interaction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collins, Loel; Collins, Dave

    2016-01-01

    This qualitative study presents the view that coaching practice places demands on the coach's adaptability and flexibility. These requirements for being adaptive and flexible are met through a careful process of professional judgement and decision-making based on context-appropriate bodies of knowledge. Adventure sports coaches were selected for study on the basis that adventure sports create a hyper-dynamic environment in which these features can be examined. Thematic analysis revealed that coaches were generally well informed and practised with respect to the technical aspects of their sporting disciplines. Less positively, however, they often relied on ad hoc contextualisation of generalised theories of coaching practice to respond to the hyper-dynamic environments encountered in adventure sports. We propose that coaching practice reflects the demands of the environment, individual learning needs of the students and the task at hand. Together, these factors outwardly resemble a constraints-led approach but, we suggest, actually reflect manipulation of these parameters from a cognitive rather than an ecological perspective. This process is facilitated by a refined judgement and decision-making process, sophisticated epistemology and an explicit interaction of coaching components.

  13. Expert Systems: An Introduction -46 ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Research Scientist in the. Knowledge Based. Computer Systems Group at NeST. He is one of the ... Expert systems encode human expertise in limited domains ... answers questions the user has and provides an explanation of its reasoning.

  14. ALICE Expert System

    CERN Document Server

    Ionita, C

    2014-01-01

    The ALICE experiment at CERN employs a number of human operators (shifters), who have to make sure that the experiment is always in a state compatible with taking Physics data. Given the complexity of the system and the myriad of errors that can arise, this is not always a trivial task. The aim of this paper is to describe an expert system that is capable of assisting human shifters in the ALICE control room. The system diagnoses potential issues and attempts to make smart recommendations for troubleshooting. At its core, a Prolog engine infers whether a Physics or a technical run can be started based on the current state of the underlying sub-systems. A separate C++ component queries certain SMI objects and stores their state as facts in a Prolog knowledge base. By mining the data stored in dierent system logs, the expert system can also diagnose errors arising during a run. Currently the system is used by the on-call experts for faster response times, but we expect it to be adopted as a standard tool by reg...

  15. ALICE Expert System

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ionita, C; Carena, F

    2014-01-01

    The ALICE experiment at CERN employs a number of human operators (shifters), who have to make sure that the experiment is always in a state compatible with taking Physics data. Given the complexity of the system and the myriad of errors that can arise, this is not always a trivial task. The aim of this paper is to describe an expert system that is capable of assisting human shifters in the ALICE control room. The system diagnoses potential issues and attempts to make smart recommendations for troubleshooting. At its core, a Prolog engine infers whether a Physics or a technical run can be started based on the current state of the underlying sub-systems. A separate C++ component queries certain SMI objects and stores their state as facts in a Prolog knowledge base. By mining the data stored in different system logs, the expert system can also diagnose errors arising during a run. Currently the system is used by the on-call experts for faster response times, but we expect it to be adopted as a standard tool by regular shifters during the next data taking period

  16. Bioethics for Technical Experts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asano, Shigetaka

    Along with rapidly expanding applications of life science and technology, technical experts have been implicated more and more often with ethical, social, and legal problems than before. It should be noted that in this background there are scientific and social uncertainty elements which are inevitable during the progress of life science in addition to the historically-established social unreliability to scientists and engineers. In order to solve these problems, therefore, we should establish the social governance with ‘relief’ and ‘reliance’ which enables for both citizens and engineers to share the awareness of the issues, to design social orders and criterions based on hypothetical sense of values for bioethics, to carry out practical use management of each subject carefully, and to improve the sense of values from hypothetical to universal. Concerning these measures, the technical experts can learn many things from the present performance in the medical field.

  17. Expert tool use

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorndahl, Kathrine Liedtke; Ravn, Susanne

    2017-01-01

    on a case study of elite rope skipping, we argue that the phenomenological concept of incorporation does not suffice to adequately describe how expert tool users feel when interacting with their tools. By analyzing a combination of insights gained from participant observation of 11 elite rope skippers......According to some phenomenologists, a tool can be experienced as incorporated when, as a result of habitual use or deliberate practice, someone is able to manipulate it without conscious effort. In this article, we specifically focus on the experience of expertise tool use in elite sport. Based...... and autoethnographic material from one former elite skipper, we take some initial steps toward the development of a more nuanced understanding of the concept of incorporation; one that is able to accommodate the experiences of expert tool users. In sum, our analyses indicate that the possibility for experiencing...

  18. Auditors’ Personal Values and Ethical Judgement at Different Levels of Ethical Climate: A Conceptual Link

    OpenAIRE

    Ahmed Mohamed Alteer; Sofri Bin Yahya; Md Harashid Haron

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is come up with theoretical model through understanding the causes and motives behind the auditor judgements. The finding of this study that there are several ethical theories a models provide a significant understanding of ethical issues and suggested factors that may affect ethical judgement decision. The suggestion model proposes that ethical judgements are influenced by personal values via ethical sensitivity. Nonetheless, the influence of personal values on ethi...

  19. Depressive realism and the effect of intertrial interval on judgements of zero, positive, and negative contingencies

    OpenAIRE

    Msetfi, Rachel M.; Murphy, Robin, A.; Simpson, Jane

    2007-01-01

    peer-reviewed In three experiments we tested how the spacing of trials during acquisition of zero, positive, and negative event–outcome contingencies differentially affected depressed and nondepressed students’ judgements. Experiment 1 found that nondepressed participants’ judgements of zero contingencies increased with longer intertrial intervals (ITIs) but not simply longer procedure durations. Depressed groups’ judgements were not sensitive to either manipulation, producing an effect kn...

  20. Landscape Capacity for Ecosystem Services Provision Based on Expert Knowledge and Public Perception (Case Study from the Northwest Slovakia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bezák Peter

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Landscape represents appropriate spatial dimension for a study of ecosystems, especially due to ability to translate scientific knowledge into proper guidance for land use practice and enhancing the inclusion of local stakeholders in decision-making procedures. We tested social preferences method to reach initial and raw overview of the ecosystem services (ES distribution and their values in the study areas. Perception of experts and local residents about capacities of relevant CORINE land cover (CLC types to provide various ES was linked with Geographic Information System databases. We quantified the results on the basis of the mean values for each CLC type and the ES groups and these were interpreted also in spatial context. The expectation about perceptible capacities of forest to provide goods and services was fulfilled by responses of the experts, as was the expected difficulty to assess capacities of transitional woodland shrub or complex cultivation patterns. However, additional land cover types in question are meadows and pastures or discon-tinuous urban fabric. Mostly middle ranking values prevail in responses of local residents and uncertainty in the background is much greater comparing to the experts. On the other hand, rural people may better recognise diversified fow of services due to their everyday close connection to more ES. Large variation in the scores of some valued CLC classes in responses of the local residents and also experts seems resulting from lack of knowledge in the background and differences in viewpoint and appreciation. We understand the gaps in evaluating ES by the experts and resident population as good experience and key challenge for the further steps and fine-tuning of the research methods.

  1. The effect of evaluation on co-occurrence memory judgement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bar-Anan, Yoav; Amzaleg-David, Efrat

    2014-01-01

    Three experiments tested the effect of an attitude towards an object on the memory judgement of whether this object co-occurred with positive versus negative stimuli. We induced positive or negative attitudes towards novel male stimuli, and paired each man with an equal number of positive and negative animals. In a memory test, participants reported more co-occurrences of same-valence man/animal pairs than opposite-valence pairs. This valence-compatibility effect occurred even when attitudes were induced after the pairing (Experiment 1), when participants knew that each man occurred with an equal number of positive and negative animals (Experiment 2), and in reports of clear memory of pairs that did not co-occur (Experiment 3). The present findings suggest that evaluation causes illusory correlation even when the co-occurring stimuli are not traits or behaviours attributed to the attitude object. The results question the validity of co-occurrence memory judgements as measures of co-occurrence awareness in evaluative conditioning (EC) research.

  2. The business judgement rule – approach and application

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adina Ponta

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The business judgment rule represents a central doctrine of corporate governance, due to its major implications on corporate directors' liability and to its infl uence on the relationship between shareholders and the board of directors. The interpretation of the Rule as a behavioral standard or as an „abstention doctrine” can determinatively influence the liability proceedings against directors who acted in consideration of their fiduciary duties. This paper aims at analyzing the national legal provisions of the Business Judgement Rule and the compatibility of the legal provisions with the established interpretations of the Rule that can be found in the foreign literature. Absent a case law that clarifies de approaches of the Business Judgement Rule by the national courts, the research analyzes the traditional Common Law approaches of the Rule and the obstacles which hinder a faithful transfer of the Rule in Romania. The objective of these identifications is to draw de lege ferenda proposals for an efficient application of the legal provisions in the future. Considering that this Rule is the natural consequence of trust and of the powers granted to corporate directors, the conclusions of the research suggest solutions for the stabilization of the continuous tension of the supreme values of the corporate world: authority and liability.

  3. Are men better than women at acoustic size judgements?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charlton, Benjamin D; Taylor, Anna M; Reby, David

    2013-08-23

    Formants are important phonetic elements of human speech that are also used by humans and non-human mammals to assess the body size of potential mates and rivals. As a consequence, it has been suggested that formant perception, which is crucial for speech perception, may have evolved through sexual selection. Somewhat surprisingly, though, no previous studies have examined whether sexes differ in their ability to use formants for size evaluation. Here, we investigated whether men and women differ in their ability to use the formant frequency spacing of synthetic vocal stimuli to make auditory size judgements over a wide range of fundamental frequencies (the main determinant of vocal pitch). Our results reveal that men are significantly better than women at comparing the apparent size of stimuli, and that lower pitch improves the ability of both men and women to perform these acoustic size judgements. These findings constitute the first demonstration of a sex difference in formant perception, and lend support to the idea that acoustic size normalization, a crucial prerequisite for speech perception, may have been sexually selected through male competition. We also provide the first evidence that vocalizations with relatively low pitch improve the perception of size-related formant information.

  4. Guidelines for the verification and validation of expert system software and conventional software: Evaluation of knowledge base certification methods. Volume 4

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miller, L.A.; Hayes, J.E.; Mirsky, S.M.

    1995-03-01

    This report presents the results of the Knowledge Base Certification activity of the expert systems verification and validation (V ampersand V) guideline development project which is jointly funded by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Electric Power Research Institute. The ultimate objective is the formulation of guidelines for the V ampersand V of expert systems for use in nuclear power applications. This activity is concerned with the development and testing of various methods for assuring the quality of knowledge bases. The testing procedure used was that of behavioral experiment, the first known such evaluation of any type of V ampersand V activity. The value of such experimentation is its capability to provide empirical evidence for -- or against -- the effectiveness of plausible methods in helping people find problems in knowledge bases. The three-day experiment included 20 participants from three nuclear utilities, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Technical training Center, the University of Maryland, EG ampersand G Idaho, and SAIC. The study used two real nuclear expert systems: a boiling water reactor emergency operating procedures tracking system and a pressurized water reactor safety assessment systems. Ten participants were assigned to each of the expert systems. All participants were trained in and then used a sequence of four different V ampersand V methods selected as being the best and most appropriate for study on the basis of prior evaluation activities. These methods either involved the analysis and tracing of requirements to elements in the knowledge base (requirements grouping and requirements tracing) or else involved direct inspection of the knowledge base for various kinds of errors. Half of the subjects within each system group used the best manual variant of the V ampersand V methods (the control group), while the other half were supported by the results of applying real or simulated automated tools to the knowledge bases

  5. Developing a HACCP-like system for improving animal health and welfare in organic egg production - based on an expert panel analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hegelund, L; Sørensen, J T

    2007-08-01

    In the process of developing a generic Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Point (HACCP)-like system for securing animal health and welfare in organic egg production, an expert panel analysis was used to perform the initial hazard analysis. Eighteen advisers and researchers in organic egg production were included in the expert panel. In a series of four questionnaires, the expert panel first scored 34 health and welfare problems seen in Danish organic egg production. Based on scorings of severity and occurrence, 10 problems were selected for further analysis. The experts subsequently suggested and scored risk factors for those problems and finally suggested control points, alarm values indicating the need for corrective actions in order to control the risk factors and monitoring frequencies of these. The 10 selected problems were hunger, thirst, piling, crop impaction, blackhead, pasteurellosis, bone fractures, cannibalism, predators and red mites. A total of 154 different risk factors were suggested for these problems. The 41 risk factors which rated highest in a combined scoring of importance and occurrence were selected for further analysis. There was a high degree of consensus between experts when scoring both problems and risk factors. The level of consensus, as defined by an interquartile range 1, was 79% to 100% when scoring the health and welfare problems (scale 1-5) and 77% to 95% when scoring the risk factors (scale 1-4). On average, 5.8 control points were suggested for every risk factor. Alarm values were often not detailed enough to be of practical significance and further analysis is needed in order to define these. The experts were highly diverse in their suggested monitoring frequencies and establishment of monitoring schemes should be part of developing the farm specific systems. An expert panel analysis based on questionnaires was a useful tool during the first steps of developing a HACCP plan, conducting a hazard analysis and suggesting control

  6. Expert opinion vs. empirical evidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herman, Rod A; Raybould, Alan

    2014-01-01

    Expert opinion is often sought by government regulatory agencies when there is insufficient empirical evidence to judge the safety implications of a course of action. However, it can be reckless to continue following expert opinion when a preponderance of evidence is amassed that conflicts with this opinion. Factual evidence should always trump opinion in prioritizing the information that is used to guide regulatory policy. Evidence-based medicine has seen a dramatic upturn in recent years spurred by examples where evidence indicated that certain treatments recommended by expert opinions increased death rates. We suggest that scientific evidence should also take priority over expert opinion in the regulation of genetically modified crops (GM). Examples of regulatory data requirements that are not justified based on the mass of evidence are described, and it is suggested that expertise in risk assessment should guide evidence-based regulation of GM crops. PMID:24637724

  7. Medical Expert Systems Survey

    OpenAIRE

    Abu-Nasser, Bassem S.

    2017-01-01

    International audience; There is an increased interest in the area of Artificial Intelligence in general and expert systems in particular. Expert systems are rapidly growing technology. Expert systems are a branch of Artificial Intelligence which is having a great impact on many fields of human life. Expert systems use human expert knowledge to solve complex problems in many fields such as Health, science, engineering, business, and weather forecasting. Organizations employing the technology ...

  8. Computer-Based Image Analysis for Plus Disease Diagnosis in Retinopathy of Prematurity: Performance of the "i-ROP" System and Image Features Associated With Expert Diagnosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ataer-Cansizoglu, Esra; Bolon-Canedo, Veronica; Campbell, J Peter; Bozkurt, Alican; Erdogmus, Deniz; Kalpathy-Cramer, Jayashree; Patel, Samir; Jonas, Karyn; Chan, R V Paul; Ostmo, Susan; Chiang, Michael F

    2015-11-01

    We developed and evaluated the performance of a novel computer-based image analysis system for grading plus disease in retinopathy of prematurity (ROP), and identified the image features, shapes, and sizes that best correlate with expert diagnosis. A dataset of 77 wide-angle retinal images from infants screened for ROP was collected. A reference standard diagnosis was determined for each image by combining image grading from 3 experts with the clinical diagnosis from ophthalmoscopic examination. Manually segmented images were cropped into a range of shapes and sizes, and a computer algorithm was developed to extract tortuosity and dilation features from arteries and veins. Each feature was fed into our system to identify the set of characteristics that yielded the highest-performing system compared to the reference standard, which we refer to as the "i-ROP" system. Among the tested crop shapes, sizes, and measured features, point-based measurements of arterial and venous tortuosity (combined), and a large circular cropped image (with radius 6 times the disc diameter), provided the highest diagnostic accuracy. The i-ROP system achieved 95% accuracy for classifying preplus and plus disease compared to the reference standard. This was comparable to the performance of the 3 individual experts (96%, 94%, 92%), and significantly higher than the mean performance of 31 nonexperts (81%). This comprehensive analysis of computer-based plus disease suggests that it may be feasible to develop a fully-automated system based on wide-angle retinal images that performs comparably to expert graders at three-level plus disease discrimination. Computer-based image analysis, using objective and quantitative retinal vascular features, has potential to complement clinical ROP diagnosis by ophthalmologists.

  9. [Adolescent arsonists--psychodynamics, family dynamics and attempt at framing a typology based on 40 expert opinions].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klosinski, G; Bertsch, S L

    2001-02-01

    Psychiatric, psychological and medical data of 40 adolescent firesetters are obtained from a retrospective analysis of expert opinions which have been drawn up by the Department of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry in Tübingen over a period of 16 years (1981-1997). This analysis mainly focusses on the patients' physical and psychosexual development, their social integration and competence and their family dynamics. It further concentrates on the psychic situation at the time of the offense, the reasons and motives given for firesetting (by the patient and by the expert) and specific psychological test results. According to the results three different characteristic groups can be found: 1st a group of offenders who have set fires to their parents' house, 2nd firesetters being member of the firebrigade, and 3rd an unspecific inhomogeneous group of firesetters.

  10. Reactor based plutonium disposition - physics and fuel behaviour benchmark studies of an OECD/NEA experts group

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    D'Hondt, P.; Gehin, J.; Na, B.C.; Sartori, E.; Wiesenack, W.

    2001-01-01

    One of the options envisaged for disposing of weapons grade plutonium, declared surplus for national defence in the Russian Federation and Usa, is to burn it in nuclear power reactors. The scientific/technical know-how accumulated in the use of MOX as a fuel for electricity generation is of great relevance for the plutonium disposition programmes. An Expert Group of the OECD/Nea is carrying out a series of benchmarks with the aim of facilitating the use of this know-how for meeting this objective. This paper describes the background that led to establishing the Expert Group, and the present status of results from these benchmarks. The benchmark studies cover a theoretical reactor physics benchmark on a VVER-1000 core loaded with MOX, two experimental benchmarks on MOX lattices and a benchmark concerned with MOX fuel behaviour for both solid and hollow pellets. First conclusions are outlined as well as future work. (author)

  11. Reliability and validity of expert assessment based on airborne and urinary measures of nickel and chromium exposure in the electroplating industry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yu-Cheng; Coble, Joseph B; Deziel, Nicole C; Ji, Bu-Tian; Xue, Shouzheng; Lu, Wei; Stewart, Patricia A; Friesen, Melissa C

    2014-11-01

    The reliability and validity of six experts' exposure ratings were evaluated for 64 nickel-exposed and 72 chromium-exposed workers from six Shanghai electroplating plants based on airborne and urinary nickel and chromium measurements. Three industrial hygienists and three occupational physicians independently ranked the exposure intensity of each metal on an ordinal scale (1-4) for each worker's job in two rounds: the first round was based on responses to an occupational history questionnaire and the second round also included responses to an electroplating industry-specific questionnaire. The Spearman correlation (r(s)) was used to compare each rating's validity to its corresponding subject-specific arithmetic mean of four airborne or four urinary measurements. Reliability was moderately high (weighted kappa range=0.60-0.64). Validity was poor to moderate (r(s)=-0.37-0.46) for both airborne and urinary concentrations of both metals. For airborne nickel concentrations, validity differed by plant. For dichotomized metrics, sensitivity and specificity were higher based on urinary measurements (47-78%) than airborne measurements (16-50%). Few patterns were observed by metal, assessment round, or expert type. These results suggest that, for electroplating exposures, experts can achieve moderately high agreement and (reasonably) distinguish between low and high exposures when reviewing responses to in-depth questionnaires used in population-based case-control studies.

  12. Situational judgement tests in medical education and training: Research, theory and practice: AMEE Guide No. 100.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patterson, Fiona; Zibarras, Lara; Ashworth, Vicki

    2016-01-01

    Why use SJTs? Traditionally, selection into medical education professions has focused primarily upon academic ability alone. This approach has been questioned more recently, as although academic attainment predicts performance early in training, research shows it has less predictive power for demonstrating competence in postgraduate clinical practice. Such evidence, coupled with an increasing focus on individuals working in healthcare roles displaying the core values of compassionate care, benevolence and respect, illustrates that individuals should be selected on attributes other than academic ability alone. Moreover, there are mounting calls to widen access to medicine, to ensure that selection methods do not unfairly disadvantage individuals from specific groups (e.g. regarding ethnicity or socio-economic status), so that the future workforce adequately represents society as a whole. These drivers necessitate a method of assessment that allows individuals to be selected on important non-academic attributes that are desirable in healthcare professionals, in a fair, reliable and valid way. What are SJTs? Situational judgement tests (SJTs) are tests used to assess individuals' reactions to a number of hypothetical role-relevant scenarios, which reflect situations candidates are likely to encounter in the target role. These scenarios are based on a detailed analysis of the role and should be developed in collaboration with subject matter experts, in order to accurately assess the key attributes that are associated with competent performance. From a theoretical perspective, SJTs are believed to measure prosocial Implicit Trait Policies (ITPs), which are shaped by socialisation processes that teach the utility of expressing certain traits in different settings such as agreeable expressions (e.g. helping others in need), or disagreeable actions (e.g. advancing ones own interest at others, expense). Are SJTs reliable, valid and fair? Several studies, including good

  13. Randomized controlled trial of supervised patient self-testing of warfarin therapy using an internet-based expert system.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Ryan, F

    2009-08-01

    Increased frequency of prothrombin time testing, facilitated by patient self-testing (PST) of the International Normalized Ratio (INR) can improve the clinical outcomes of oral anticoagulation therapy (OAT). However, oversight of this type of management is often difficult and time-consuming for healthcare professionals. This study reports the first randomized controlled trial of an automated direct-to-patient expert system, enabling remote and effective management of patients on OAT.

  14. Furthering patient adherence: A position paper of the international expert forum on patient adherence based on an internet forum discussion

    OpenAIRE

    van Dulmen, Sandra; Sluijs, Emmy; van Dijk, Liset; de Ridder, Denise; Heerdink, Rob; Bensing, Jozien

    2008-01-01

    Abstract Background As the problem of patient non-adherence persists and a solution appears hard to be found, it continues to be important to look for new ways to further the issue. We recently conducted a meta-review of adherence intervention studies which yielded a preliminary agenda for future research, practice and theory development in patient adherence. The objective of the present project was to find out to what extent adherence experts consider this agenda relevant and feasible. Metho...

  15. BBMRI-ERIC as a resource for pharmaceutical and life science industries: the development of biobank-based Expert Centres.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Ommen, Gert-Jan B; Törnwall, Outi; Bréchot, Christian; Dagher, Georges; Galli, Joakim; Hveem, Kristian; Landegren, Ulf; Luchinat, Claudio; Metspalu, Andres; Nilsson, Cecilia; Solesvik, Ove V; Perola, Markus; Litton, Jan-Eric; Zatloukal, Kurt

    2015-07-01

    Biological resources (cells, tissues, bodily fluids or biomolecules) are considered essential raw material for the advancement of health-related biotechnology, for research and development in life sciences, and for ultimately improving human health. Stored in local biobanks, access to the human biological samples and related medical data for transnational research is often limited, in particular for the international life science industry. The recently established pan-European Biobanking and BioMolecular resources Research Infrastructure-European Research Infrastructure Consortium (BBMRI-ERIC) aims to improve accessibility and interoperability between academic and industrial parties to benefit personalized medicine, disease prevention to promote development of new diagnostics, devices and medicines. BBMRI-ERIC is developing the concept of Expert Centre as public-private partnerships in the precompetitive, not-for-profit field to provide a new structure to perform research projects that would face difficulties under currently established models of academic-industry collaboration. By definition, Expert Centres are key intermediaries between public and private sectors performing the analysis of biological samples under internationally standardized conditions. This paper presents the rationale behind the Expert Centres and illustrates the novel concept with model examples.

  16. An outline of a model-based expert system to identify optimal remedial strategies for restoring contaminated aquatic ecosystems: the project MOIRA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Appelgren, A.; Bergstrom, U.; Brittain, J.; Monte, L.

    1996-10-01

    The present report describes the fundamental principles of the research programme MOIRA (a model based computerized system for management support to Identify optimal remedial strategies for Restoring radionuclide contaminated Aquatic ecosystems and drainage areas) financed by the EC (European Community) (Contract N F14P-CT96-0036). The interventions to restore radionuclides contaminated aquatic systems may result in detrimental ecological, social and economical effects. Decision makers must carefully evaluate these impacts. The main aim of the MOIRA project is the development of an expert system based on validated models predicting the evolution of the radioactive contamination of fresh water systems following countermeasure applications and their relevant ecological, social and economical impacts. The expert system will help decision makers, that are not necessarily gifted with experience in environmental modeling, to identify optimal remedial strategies for restoring contaminated fresh water systems

  17. An outline of a model-based expert system to identify optimal remedial strategies for restoring contaminated acquatic ecosystems: The project ``moira``

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Appelgren, A.; Bergstrom, U. [Studsvik Eco and AB, Nykoping (Sweden); Brittain, J. [Oslo Univ. (Norway). LFI Zoological Museum; Gallego Diaz, E. [Madrid Universidad Politecnica (Spain). Dept. de Ingenieria Nuclear; Hakanson, L. [KEMA Nuclear, Arnhem (Niger); Monte, L. [ENEA, Centro Ricerche Casaccia, Rome (Italy). Dip. Ambiente

    1996-10-01

    The present report describes the fundamental principles of the research programme MOIRA (a model based computerized system for management support to Identify optimal remedial strategies for Restoring radionuclide contaminated Aquatic ecosystems and drainage areas) financed by the EC (European Community) (Contract N F14P-CT96-0036). The interventions to restore radionuclides contaminated aquatic systems may result in detrimental ecological, social and economical effects. Decision makers must carefully evaluate these impacts. The main aim of the MOIRA project is the development of an expert system based on validated models predicting the evolution of the radioactive contamination of fresh water systems following countermeasure applications and their relevant ecological, social and economical impacts. The expert system will help decision makers, that are not necessarily gifted with experience in environmental modeling, to identify optimal remedial strategies for restoring contaminated fresh water systems.

  18. Intelligent programs-expert systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gledhill, V X

    1982-01-01

    In recent years, computer scientists have developed what are called expert systems. These programs have three fundamental components: a knowledge base, which changes with experience; an inference engine which enables the program to make decisions; and an interface that allows the program to communicate with the person using the system. Expert systems have been developed successfully in areas such as medical diagnosis, geology, and computer maintenance. This paper describes the evolution and basic principles of expert systems and give some examples of their use.

  19. Institutional and Actor-Oriented Factors Constraining Expert-Based Forest Information Exchange in Europe: A Policy Analysis from an Actor-Centred Institutionalist Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tanya Baycheva-Merger

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Adequate and accessible expert-based forest information has become increasingly in demand for effective decisions and informed policies in the forest and forest-related sectors in Europe. Such accessibility requires a collaborative environment and constant information exchange between various actors at different levels and across sectors. However, information exchange in complex policy environments is challenging, and is often constrained by various institutional, actor-oriented, and technical factors. In forest policy research, no study has yet attempted to simultaneously account for these multiple factors influencing expert-based forest information exchange. By employing a policy analysis from an actor-centred institutionalist perspective, this paper aims to provide an overview of the most salient institutional and actor-oriented factors that are perceived as constraining forest information exchange at the national level across European countries. We employ an exploratory research approach, and utilise both qualitative and quantitative methods to analyse our data. The data was collected through a semi-structured survey targeted at forest and forest-related composite actors in 21 European countries. The results revealed that expert-based forest information exchange is constrained by a number of compound and closely interlinked institutional and actor-oriented factors, reflecting the complex interplay of institutions and actors at the national level. The most salient institutional factors that stand out include restrictive or ambiguous data protection policies, inter-organisational information arrangements, different organisational cultures, and a lack of incentives. Forest information exchange becomes even more complex when actors are confronted with actor-oriented factors such as issues of distrust, diverging preferences and perceptions, intellectual property rights, and technical capabilities. We conclude that expert-based forest information

  20. Knowledge-based radiation therapy (KBRT) treatment planning versus planning by experts: validation of a KBRT algorithm for prostate cancer treatment planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nwankwo, Obioma; Mekdash, Hana; Sihono, Dwi Seno Kuncoro; Wenz, Frederik; Glatting, Gerhard

    2015-01-01

    A knowledge-based radiation therapy (KBRT) treatment planning algorithm was recently developed. The purpose of this work is to investigate how plans that are generated with the objective KBRT approach compare to those that rely on the judgment of the experienced planner. Thirty volumetric modulated arc therapy plans were randomly selected from a database of prostate plans that were generated by experienced planners (expert plans). The anatomical data (CT scan and delineation of organs) of these patients and the KBRT algorithm were given to a novice with no prior treatment planning experience. The inexperienced planner used the knowledge-based algorithm to predict the dose that the OARs receive based on their proximity to the treated volume. The population-based OAR constraints were changed to the predicted doses. A KBRT plan was subsequently generated. The KBRT and expert plans were compared for the achieved target coverage and OAR sparing. The target coverages were compared using the Uniformity Index (UI), while 5 dose-volume points (D 10 , D 30, D 50 , D 70 and D 90 ) were used to compare the OARs (bladder and rectum) doses. Wilcoxon matched-pairs signed rank test was used to check for significant differences (p < 0.05) between both datasets. The KBRT and expert plans achieved mean UI values of 1.10 ± 0.03 and 1.10 ± 0.04, respectively. The Wilcoxon test showed no statistically significant difference between both results. The D 90 , D 70, D 50 , D 30 and D 10 values of the two planning strategies, and the Wilcoxon test results suggests that the KBRT plans achieved a statistically significant lower bladder dose (at D 30 ), while the expert plans achieved a statistically significant lower rectal dose (at D 10 and D 30 ). The results of this study show that the KBRT treatment planning approach is a promising method to objectively incorporate patient anatomical variations in radiotherapy treatment planning

  1. Evaluating a web-based health risk assessment with tailored feedback: what does an expert focus group yield compared to a web-based end-user survey?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vosbergen, Sandra; Mahieu, Guy R; Laan, Eva K; Kraaijenhagen, Roderik A; Jaspers, Monique Wm; Peek, Niels

    2014-01-02

    Increasingly, Web-based health applications are developed for the prevention and management of chronic diseases. However, their reach and utilization is often disappointing. Qualitative evaluations post-implementation can be used to inform the optimization process and ultimately enhance their adoption. In current practice, such evaluations are mainly performed with end-user surveys. However, a review approach by experts in a focus group may be easier to administer and might provide similar results. The aim of this study was to assess whether industrial design engineers in a focus group would address the same issues as end users in a Web-based survey when evaluating a commercial Web-based health risk assessment (HRA) with tailored feedback. Seven Dutch companies used the HRA as part of their corporate health management strategy. Employees using the HRA (N=2289) and 10 independent industrial designers were invited to participate in the study. The HRA consisted of four components: (1) an electronic health questionnaire, (2) biometric measurements, (3) laboratory evaluation, and (4) individually tailored feedback generated by decision support software. After participating in the HRA as end users, both end users and designers evaluated the program. End users completed an evaluation questionnaire that included a free-text field. Designers participated in a focus group discussion. Constructs from user satisfaction and technology acceptance theories were used to categorize and compare the remarks from both evaluations. We assessed and qualitatively analyzed 294 remarks of 189 end users and 337 remarks of 6 industrial designers, pertaining to 295 issues in total. Of those, 137 issues were addressed in the end-user survey and 148 issues in the designer focus group. Only 7.3% (10/137) of the issues addressed in the survey were also addressed in the focus group. End users made more remarks about the usefulness of the HRA and prior expectations that were not met. Designers made

  2. Expert systems in clinical microbiology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winstanley, Trevor; Courvalin, Patrice

    2011-07-01

    This review aims to discuss expert systems in general and how they may be used in medicine as a whole and clinical microbiology in particular (with the aid of interpretive reading). It considers rule-based systems, pattern-based systems, and data mining and introduces neural nets. A variety of noncommercial systems is described, and the central role played by the EUCAST is stressed. The need for expert rules in the environment of reset EUCAST breakpoints is also questioned. Commercial automated systems with on-board expert systems are considered, with emphasis being placed on the "big three": Vitek 2, BD Phoenix, and MicroScan. By necessity and in places, the review becomes a general review of automated system performances for the detection of specific resistance mechanisms rather than focusing solely on expert systems. Published performance evaluations of each system are drawn together and commented on critically.

  3. Hierarchical Model of Assessing and Selecting Experts

    OpenAIRE

    Chernysheva, Tatiana Yurievna; Korchuganova, Mariya Anatolievna; Borisov, V. V.; Minkov, S. L.

    2016-01-01

    Revealing experts' competences is a multi-objective issue. Authors of the paper deal with competence assessing methods of experts seen as objects, and criteria of qualities. An analytic hierarchy process of assessing and ranking experts is offered, which is based on paired comparison matrices and scores, quality parameters are taken into account as well. Calculation and assessment of experts is given as an example.

  4. Hybrid expert system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tsoukalas, L.; Ikonomopoulos, A.; Uhrig, R.E.

    1991-01-01

    This paper presents a methodology that couples rule-based expert systems using fuzzy logic, to pre-trained artificial neutral networks (ANN) for the purpose of transient identification in Nuclear Power Plants (NPP). In order to provide timely concise, and task-specific information about the may aspects of the transient and to determine the state of the system based on the interpretation of potentially noisy data a model-referenced approach is utilized. In it, the expert system performs the basic interpretation and processing of the model data, and pre-trained ANNs provide the model. having access to a set of neural networks that typify general categories of transients, the rule based system is able to perform identification functions. Membership functions - condensing information about a transient in a form convenient for a rule-based identification system characterizing a transient - are the output of neural computations. This allows the identification function to be performed with a speed comparable to or faster than that of the temporal evolution of the system. Simulator data form major secondary system pipe rupture is used to demonstrate the methodology. The results indicate excellent noise-tolerance for ANN's and suggest a new method for transient identification within the framework of Fuzzy Logic

  5. Expert opinion vs. empirical evidence

    OpenAIRE

    Herman, Rod A; Raybould, Alan

    2014-01-01

    Expert opinion is often sought by government regulatory agencies when there is insufficient empirical evidence to judge the safety implications of a course of action. However, it can be reckless to continue following expert opinion when a preponderance of evidence is amassed that conflicts with this opinion. Factual evidence should always trump opinion in prioritizing the information that is used to guide regulatory policy. Evidence-based medicine has seen a dramatic upturn in recent years sp...

  6. Expert software for accident identification

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dobnikar, M.; Nemec, T.; Muehleisen, A.

    2003-01-01

    Each type of an accident in a Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) causes immediately after the start of the accident variations of physical parameters that are typical for that type of the accident thus enabling its identification. Examples of these parameter are: decrease of reactor coolant system pressure, increase of radiation level in the containment, increase of pressure in the containment. An expert software enabling a fast preliminary identification of the type of the accident in Krsko NPP has been developed. As input data selected typical parameters from Emergency Response Data System (ERDS) of the Krsko NPP are used. Based on these parameters the expert software identifies the type of the accident and also provides the user with appropriate references (past analyses and other documentation of such an accident). The expert software is to be used as a support tool by an expert team that forms in case of an emergency at Slovenian Nuclear Safety Administration (SNSA) with the task to determine the cause of the accident, its most probable scenario and the source term. The expert software should provide initial identification of the event, while the final one is still to be made after appropriate assessment of the event by the expert group considering possibility of non-typical events, multiple causes, initial conditions, influences of operators' actions etc. The expert software can be also used as an educational/training tool and even as a simple database of available accident analyses. (author)

  7. The naked experts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martin, B.

    1982-01-01

    In an article critical of experts, the cases argued for and against nuclear power are discussed under the headings: environmental hazards arising from the nuclear fuel cycle; proliferation of nuclear weapons capabilities via expansion of the nuclear power industry; political and social threats and restraints of a nuclear society (terrorism, reduction in civil liberties, centralised political and economic power); economic and employment disadvantages of nuclear power; impact of uranium mining on (Australian) aboriginal culture; inadequacy of nuclear power as a solution to energy problems; advantages of a 'soft energy path' based around conservation and renewable energy technologies. (U.K.)

  8. Confirmation bias in web-based search: a randomized online study on the effects of expert information and social tags on information search and evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schweiger, Stefan; Oeberst, Aileen; Cress, Ulrike

    2014-03-26

    The public typically believes psychotherapy to be more effective than pharmacotherapy for depression treatments. This is not consistent with current scientific evidence, which shows that both types of treatment are about equally effective. The study investigates whether this bias towards psychotherapy guides online information search and whether the bias can be reduced by explicitly providing expert information (in a blog entry) and by providing tag clouds that implicitly reveal experts' evaluations. A total of 174 participants completed a fully automated Web-based study after we invited them via mailing lists. First, participants read two blog posts by experts that either challenged or supported the bias towards psychotherapy. Subsequently, participants searched for information about depression treatment in an online environment that provided more experts' blog posts about the effectiveness of treatments based on alleged research findings. These blogs were organized in a tag cloud; both psychotherapy tags and pharmacotherapy tags were popular. We measured tag and blog post selection, efficacy ratings of the presented treatments, and participants' treatment recommendation after information search. Participants demonstrated a clear bias towards psychotherapy (mean 4.53, SD 1.99) compared to pharmacotherapy (mean 2.73, SD 2.41; t173=7.67, Pinformation search and evaluation. This bias was significantly reduced, however, when participants were exposed to tag clouds with challenging popular tags. Participants facing popular tags challenging their bias (n=61) showed significantly less biased tag selection (F2,168=10.61, Pinformation as presented in blog posts, compared to supporting expert information (n=81), decreased the bias in information search with regard to blog post selection (F1,168=4.32, P=.04, partial eta squared=0.025). No significant effects were found for treatment recommendation (Ps>.33). We conclude that the psychotherapy bias is most effectively

  9. Clinical judgement within the South African clinical nursing environment: A concept analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna C. van Graan

    2016-12-01

    The findings emphasized clinical judgement as skill within the clinical nursing environment, thereby improving autonomous and accountable nursing care. These findings will assist nurse leaders and clinical nurse educators in developing a teaching-learning strategy to promote clinical judgement in undergraduate nursing students, thereby contributing to the quality of nursing care.

  10. Towards an Understanding of Teacher Judgement in the Context of Social Moderation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adie, Lenore Ellen; Klenowski, Valentina; Wyatt-Smith, Claire

    2012-01-01

    Social moderation involves teachers gathering together to discuss their judgements of the quality of student work and to reach agreement regarding the standard awarded. This qualitative study conducted over a three-year period investigated the social practice of moderation and the influence on teachers' judgements of students' work. An initial…

  11. Staff Judgements of Responsibility for the Challenging Behaviour of Adults with Intellectual Disabilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dagnan, D.; Cairns, M.

    2005-01-01

    This study examines the importance of staff judgements of responsibility for challenging behaviour in predicting their emotional and intended helping responses. Sixty-two carers completed questionnaires rating attributions of internality, stability and controllability, emotions of sympathy and anger, judgements of responsibility for the…

  12. Impairment in judgement of the moral emotion guilt following orbitofrontal cortex damage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Funayama, Michitaka; Koreki, Akihiro; Muramatsu, Taro; Mimura, Masaru; Kato, Motoichiro; Abe, Takayuki

    2018-04-19

    Although neuroimaging studies have provided evidence for an association between moral emotions and the orbitofrontal cortex, studies on patients with focal lesions using experimental probes of moral emotions are scarce. Here, we addressed this topic by presenting a moral emotion judgement task to patients with focal brain damage. Four judgement tasks in a simple pairwise choice paradigm were given to 72 patients with cerebrovascular disease. These tasks consisted of a perceptual line judgement task as a control task; the objects' preference task as a basic preference judgement task; and two types of moral emotion judgement task, an anger task and a guilt task. A multiple linear regression analysis was performed on each set of task performance scores to take into account potential confounders. Performance on the guilt emotion judgement task negatively correlated with the orbitofrontal cortex damage, but not with the other variables. Results for the other judgement tasks did not reach statistical significance. The close association between orbitofrontal cortex damage and a decrease in guilt emotion judgement consistency might suggest that the orbitofrontal cortex plays a key role in the sense of guilt, a hallmark of morality. © 2018 The British Psychological Society.

  13. Effects of stimulus order on discrimination processes in comparative and equality judgements: data and models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dyjas, Oliver; Ulrich, Rolf

    2014-01-01

    In typical discrimination experiments, participants are presented with a constant standard and a variable comparison stimulus and their task is to judge which of these two stimuli is larger (comparative judgement). In these experiments, discrimination sensitivity depends on the temporal order of these stimuli (Type B effect) and is usually higher when the standard precedes rather than follows the comparison. Here, we outline how two models of stimulus discrimination can account for the Type B effect, namely the weighted difference model (or basic Sensation Weighting model) and the Internal Reference Model. For both models, the predicted psychometric functions for comparative judgements as well as for equality judgements, in which participants indicate whether they perceived the two stimuli to be equal or not equal, are derived and it is shown that the models also predict a Type B effect for equality judgements. In the empirical part, the models' predictions are evaluated. To this end, participants performed a duration discrimination task with comparative judgements and with equality judgements. In line with the models' predictions, a Type B effect was observed for both judgement types. In addition, a time-order error, as indicated by shifts of the psychometric functions, and differences in response times were observed only for the equality judgement. Since both models entail distinct additional predictions, it seems worthwhile for future research to unite the two models into one conceptual framework.

  14. Towards real persons: Clinical judgement and philosophy of psychiatry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tim Thornton

    2007-08-01

    Full Text Available One of the motivations for the new philosophy of psychiatry is the need to understand changing ideas in mental health care. In the last century, changes in both physical and biological theory prompted work in philosophy of physics and philosophy of biology to understand those fields better, attempts which were continuous with empirical work. At the start of this century, changes in psychiatry promise increased interest in the philosophy of psychiatry as an attempt, alongside empirical research, to understand the conceptual underpinnings of mental heath care. While philosophical methods are distinct from empirical methods, the work is truly interdisciplinary, growing organically from the complexities of demand on psychiatric care and, although philosophical, carried out by philosophers and psychiatrists alike. One focus is the nature of clinical judgement in psychiatric diagnosis. In this short note I will briefly sketch some issues that arise from a current idea: that psychiatric diagnosis should include idiographic elements.

  15. Facial attractiveness judgements reflect learning of parental age characteristics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perrett, David I; Penton-Voak, Ian S; Little, Anthony C; Tiddeman, Bernard P; Burt, D Michael; Schmidt, Natalie; Oxley, Roz; Kinloch, Nicholas; Barrett, Louise

    2002-05-07

    Mate preferences are shaped by infant experience of parental characteristics in a wide variety of species. Similar processes in humans may lead to physical similarity between parents and mates, yet this possibility has received little attention. The age of parents is one salient physical characteristic that offspring may attend to. The current study used computer-graphic faces to examine how preferences for age in faces were influenced by parental age. We found that women born to 'old' parents (over 30) were less impressed by youth, and more attracted to age cues in male faces than women with 'young' parents (under 30). For men, preferences for female faces were influenced by their mother's age and not their father's age, but only for long-term relationships. These data indicate that judgements of facial attractiveness in humans reflect the learning of parental characteristics.

  16. In this issue: Time to replace doctors’ judgement with computers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simon de Lusignan

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Informaticians continue to rise to the challenge, set by the English Health Minister, of trying to replace doctors’ judgement with computers. This issue describes successes and where there are barriers. However, whilst there is progress this tends to be incremental and there are grand challenges to be overcome before computers can replace clinician. These grand challenges include: (1 improving usability so it is possible to more readily incorporate technology into clinical workflow; (2 rigorous new analytic methods that make use of the mass of available data, ‘Big data’, to create real-world evidence; (3 faster ways of meeting regulatory and legal requirements including ensuring privacy; (4 provision of reimbursement models to fund innovative technology that can substitute for clinical time and (5 recognition that innovations that improve quality also often increase cost. Informatics more is likely to support and augment clinical decision making rather than replace clinicians.

  17. Professional approaches in clinical judgements among senior and junior doctors: implications for medical education

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pilhammar Ewa

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Clinical experience has traditionally been highly valued in medical education and clinical healthcare. On account of its multi-faceted nature, clinical experience is mostly difficult to articulate, and is mainly expressed in clinical situations as professional approaches. Due to retirement, hospitals in Scandinavia will soon face a substantial decrease in the number of senior specialist doctors, and it has been discussed whether healthcare will suffer an immense loss of experienced-based knowledge when this senior group leaves the organization. Both senior specialists and junior colleagues are often involved in clinical education, but the way in which these two groups vary in professional approaches and contributions to clinical education has not been so well described. Cognitive psychology has contributed to the understanding of how experience may influence professional approaches, but such studies have not included the effect of differences in position and responsibilities that junior and senior doctors hold in clinical healthcare. In the light of the discussion above, it is essential to describe the professional approaches of senior doctors in relation to those of their junior colleagues. This study therefore aims to describe and compare the professional approaches of junior and senior doctors when making clinical judgements. Methods Critical incident technique was used in interviews with nine senior doctors and nine junior doctors in internal medicine. The interviews were subjected to qualitative content analysis. Result Senior and junior doctors expressed a variety of professional approaches in clinical judgement as follows: use of theoretical knowledge, use of prior experience of cases and courses of events, use of ethical and moral values, meeting and communicating with the patient, focusing on available information, relying on their own ability, getting support and guidance from others and being directed by the

  18. Frontal brain deactivation during a non-verbal cognitive judgement bias test in sheep.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guldimann, Kathrin; Vögeli, Sabine; Wolf, Martin; Wechsler, Beat; Gygax, Lorenz

    2015-02-01

    Animal welfare concerns have raised an interest in animal affective states. These states also play an important role in the proximate control of behaviour. Due to their potential to modulate short-term emotional reactions, one specific focus is on long-term affective states, that is, mood. These states can be assessed by using non-verbal cognitive judgement bias paradigms. Here, we conducted a spatial variant of such a test on 24 focal animals that were kept under either unpredictable, stimulus-poor or predictable, stimulus-rich housing conditions to induce differential mood states. Based on functional near-infrared spectroscopy, we measured haemodynamic frontal brain reactions during 10 s in which the sheep could observe the configuration of the cognitive judgement bias trial before indicating their assessment based on the go/no-go reaction. We used (generalised) mixed-effects models to evaluate the data. Sheep from the unpredictable, stimulus-poor housing conditions took longer and were less likely to reach the learning criterion and reacted slightly more optimistically in the cognitive judgement bias test than sheep from the predictable, stimulus-rich housing conditions. A frontal cortical increase in deoxy-haemoglobin [HHb] and a decrease in oxy-haemoglobin [O2Hb] were observed during the visual assessment of the test situation by the sheep, indicating a frontal cortical brain deactivation. This deactivation was more pronounced with the negativity of the test situation, which was reflected by the provenance of the sheep from the unpredictable, stimulus-poor housing conditions, the proximity of the cue to the negatively reinforced cue location, or the absence of a go reaction in the trial. It seems that (1) sheep from the unpredictable, stimulus-poor in comparison to sheep from the predictable, stimulus-rich housing conditions dealt less easily with the test conditions rich in stimuli, that (2) long-term housing conditions seemingly did not influence mood

  19. Expert validation of fit-for-purpose guidelines for designing programmes of assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dijkstra Joost

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background An assessment programme, a purposeful mix of assessment activities, is necessary to achieve a complete picture of assessee competence. High quality assessment programmes exist, however, design requirements for such programmes are still unclear. We developed guidelines for design based on an earlier developed framework which identified areas to be covered. A fitness-for-purpose approach defining quality was adopted to develop and validate guidelines. Methods First, in a brainstorm, ideas were generated, followed by structured interviews with 9 international assessment experts. Then, guidelines were fine-tuned through analysis of the interviews. Finally, validation was based on expert consensus via member checking. Results In total 72 guidelines were developed and in this paper the most salient guidelines are discussed. The guidelines are related and grouped per layer of the framework. Some guidelines were so generic that these are applicable in any design consideration. These are: the principle of proportionality, rationales should underpin each decisions, and requirement of expertise. Logically, many guidelines focus on practical aspects of assessment. Some guidelines were found to be clear and concrete, others were less straightforward and were phrased more as issues for contemplation. Conclusions The set of guidelines is comprehensive and not bound to a specific context or educational approach. From the fitness-for-purpose principle, guidelines are eclectic, requiring expertise judgement to use them appropriately in different contexts. Further validation studies to test practicality are required.

  20. Developing a HACCP-like system for improving animal health and welfare in organic egg production - based on an expert panel analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hegelund, Lene; Sørensen, Jan Tind

    2007-01-01

    In the process of developing a generic Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Point (HACCP)-like system for securing animal health and welfare in organic egg production, an expert panel analysis was used to perform the initial hazard analysis. Eighteen advisers and researchers in organic egg...... specific systems. An expert panel analysis based on questionnaires was a useful tool during the first steps of developing a HACCP plan, conducting a hazard analysis and suggesting control points. However, care should be taken regarding the panel's size and fields of expertise in order to assure...... that the panel fully covers the field of interest throughout the study. A further development of the hazard analysis into a farm-specific HACCP system would include assembling an on-farm HACCP team consisting of farmers and advisors for the practical application of control points, alarm values and monitoring...

  1. Guidelines for the verification and validation of expert system software and conventional software: Volume 4, Evaluation of knowledge base certification methods. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miller, L.A.; Hayes, J.E.; Mirsky, S.M.

    1995-05-01

    Objective is the formulation of guidelines for the V ampersand V of expert systems for use in nuclear power applications. This activity is concerned with the development and testing of various methods for assuring the quality of knowledge bases. The testing procedure used was that of behavioral experiment, the first known such evaluation of any of V ampersand V activity; the value lies in the capability to provide empirical evidence for or against the effectiveness of plausible methods in helping people find problems in knowledge bases. The three-day experiment included 20 participants from three nuclear utilities, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Technical training Center, University of Maryland, EG ampersand G Idaho, and SAIC. The study used two real nuclear expert systems: a boiling water reactor emergency operating procedures tracking system and a pressurized water reactor safety assessment systems. Ten participants were assigned to each of the expert systems. All participants were trained in and then used a sequence of four different V ampersand V methods selected as being the best and most appropriate. These methods either involved the analysis and tracing of requirements to elements in the knowledge base or direct inspection of the knowledge base for various kinds of errors. Half of the subjects within each system group used the best annual variant of the V ampersand V methods (the control group), while the other half were supported by the results of applying real or simulated automated tools to the knowledge bases (the experimental group). The four groups of participants were similar in nuclear engineering and software experience characteristics. It is concluded that the use of tools in static knowledge base certification results in significant improvement in detecting all types of defects, avoiding false alarms, and completing the effort in less time. The simulated knowledge-checking tool, based on supplemental engineering information about the systems

  2. Measuring cognitive task demands using dual task methodology, subjective self-ratings, and expert judgments : A Validation Study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Révész, Andrea; Michel, Marije; Gilabert, Roger

    2016-01-01

    This study explored the usefulness of dual-task methodology, self-ratings, and expert judgements in assessing task-generated cognitive demands as a way to provide validity evidence for manipulations of task complexity. The participants were 96 students and 61 ESL teachers. The students, 48 English

  3. The role of human-at-work systems in business sustainability: perspectives based on expert and qualified production workers in a manufacturing enterprise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Genaidy, Ash M; Rinder, Maria M; Sequeira, Reynold; A-Rehim, Amal

    2010-04-01

    and enterprise levels, in terms of organisational/social/technological environment. This is particularly noted for the organisational environment. The compatibility values obtained for the experienced domains mirror those obtained for acting domains. The overall workload was assessed as requiring major redesign during the day shift and needing added responsibilities for the night shift according to both expert and qualified workers. The assessment of qualified workers is comparable with that of expert workers for the job content and immediate surroundings. Differences are more observed for process- and enterprise-based factors; thereby, providing company management different perspectives in order to devise organisational strategies conducive for optimum human and corporate health and pointing to the probable interactions of the different systems impacting individual and enterprise performance. STATEMENT OF RELEVANCE: This research examines similarities and differences between qualified and expert workers in their assessment of the worker-work environment interface. The contribution to improved understanding of the complex interactions of human-at-work and enterprise systems should be beneficial to organisations in their quest to remain competitive in a global economy.

  4. Communication skills training in oncology: a position paper based on a consensus meeting among European experts in 2009.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stiefel, F; Barth, J; Bensing, J; Fallowfield, L; Jost, L; Razavi, D; Kiss, A

    2010-02-01

    Communication in cancer care has become a major topic of interest. Since there is evidence that ineffective communication affects both patients and oncology clinicians (physicians and nurses), so-called communication skills trainings (CSTs) have been developed over the last decade. While these trainings have been demonstrated to be effective, there is an important heterogeneity with regard to implementation and with regard to evidence of different aspects of CST. In order to review and discuss the scientific literature on CST in oncology and to formulate recommendations, the Swiss Cancer League has organised a consensus meeting with European opinion leaders and experts in the field of CST, as well as oncology clinicians, representatives of oncology societies and patient organisations. On the basis of a systematic review and a meta-analysis, recommendations have been developed and agreed upon. Recommendations address (i) the setting, objectives and participants of CST, (ii) its content and pedagogic tools, (iii) organisational aspects, (iv) outcome and (v) future directions and research. This consensus meeting, on the basis of European expert opinions and a systematic review and meta-analysis, defines key elements for the current provision and future development and evaluation of CST in oncology.

  5. Expert robots in nuclear plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Byrd, J.S.; Fisher, J.J.; DeVries, K.R.; Martin, T.P.

    1987-01-01

    Expert robots enhance a safety and operations in nuclear plants. E.I. du Pont de Nemours and Company, Savannah River Laboratory, is developing expert mobile robots for deployment in nuclear applications at the Savannah River Plant. Knowledge-based expert systems are being evaluated to simplify operator control, to assist in navigation and manipulation functions, and to analyze sensory information. Development work using two research vehicles is underway to demonstrate semiautonomous, intelligence, expert robot system operation in process areas. A description of the mechanical equipment, control systems, and operating modes is presented, including the integration of onboard sensors. A control hierarchy that uses modest computational methods is being used to allow mobile robots to autonomously navigate and perform tasks in known environments without the need for large computer systems

  6. Expert robots in nuclear plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Byrd, J.S.; Fisher, J.J.; DeVries, K.R.; Martin, T.P.

    1987-01-01

    Expert robots will enhance safety and operations in nuclear plants. E. I. du Pont de Nemours and Company, Savannah River Laboratory, is developing expert mobile robots for deployment in nuclear applications at the Savannah River Plant. Knowledge-based expert systems are being evaluated to simplify operator control, to assist in navigation and manipulation functions, and to analyze sensory information. Development work using two research vehicles is underway to demonstrate semiautonomous, intelligent, expert robot system operation in process areas. A description of the mechanical equipment, control systems, and operating modes is presented, including the integration of onboard sensors. A control hierarchy that uses modest computational methods is being used to allow mobile robots to autonomously navigate and perform tasks in known environments without the need for large computer systems

  7. The importance of early-school radioactivity education in cultivating proper reflexive judgement on radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nishina, Kojiro

    1999-01-01

    An attempt is made to draw a preliminary conclusion on the effectiveness of early-school education on radioactivity, based on two cases of student responses. The first is the returns of questionnaires circulated at two colleges, which were typical of an engineering college and a liberal-arts college, respectively. The second is the reactions of liberal arts students to observed, unexpected levels of radiation in their environment. Their reaction was dominated by their preoccupation on radiation, rather than by the quantitative data they themselves collected on the spot. Thus classes in early schooldays are considered to play a vital role in cultivating proper judgement they are to rely on as general citizens. (author)

  8. The importance of early-school radioactivity education in cultivating proper reflexive judgement on radiation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nishina, Kojiro [Aichi Shukutoku Univ., The College of Contemporary Social Studies, Nagakute, Aichi (Japan)

    1999-09-01

    An attempt is made to draw a preliminary conclusion on the effectiveness of early-school education on radioactivity, based on two cases of student responses. The first is the returns of questionnaires circulated at two colleges, which were typical of an engineering college and a liberal-arts college, respectively. The second is the reactions of liberal arts students to observed, unexpected levels of radiation in their environment. Their reaction was dominated by their preoccupation on radiation, rather than by the quantitative data they themselves collected on the spot. Thus classes in early schooldays are considered to play a vital role in cultivating proper judgement they are to rely on as general citizens. (author)

  9. Expert auditors’ services classification

    OpenAIRE

    Jolanta Wisniewska

    2013-01-01

    The profession of an expert auditor is a public trust occupation with a distinctive feature of taking responsibility for actions in the public interest. The main responsibility of expert auditors is performing financial auditing; however, expert auditors are prepared to carry out different tasks which encompass a wide plethora of financial and auditing services for different kinds of institutions and companies. The aim of the article is first of all the description of expert auditors’ service...

  10. Delegating Decisions to Experts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Hao; Suen, Wing

    2004-01-01

    We present a model of delegation with self-interested and privately informed experts. A team of experts with extreme but opposite biases is acceptable to a wide range of decision makers with diverse preferences, but the value of expertise from such a team is low. A decision maker wants to appoint experts who are less partisan than he is in order…

  11. Induced seismicity hazard and risk by enhanced geothermal systems: an expert elicitation approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trutnevyte, Evelina; Azevedo, Inês L.

    2018-03-01

    Induced seismicity is a concern for multiple geoenergy applications, including low-carbon enhanced geothermal systems (EGS). We present the results of an international expert elicitation (n = 14) on EGS induced seismicity hazard and risk. Using a hypothetical scenario of an EGS plant and its geological context, we show that expert best-guess estimates of annualized exceedance probabilities of an M ≥ 3 event range from 0.2%-95% during reservoir stimulation and 0.2%-100% during operation. Best-guess annualized exceedance probabilities of M ≥ 5 event span from 0.002%-2% during stimulation and 0.003%-3% during operation. Assuming that tectonic M7 events could occur, some experts do not exclude induced (triggered) events of up to M7 too. If an induced M = 3 event happens at 5 km depth beneath a town with 10 000 inhabitants, most experts estimate a 50% probability that the loss is contained within 500 000 USD without any injuries or fatalities. In the case of an induced M = 5 event, there is 50% chance that the loss is below 50 million USD with the most-likely outcome of 50 injuries and one fatality or none. As we observe a vast diversity in quantitative expert judgements and underlying mental models, we conclude with implications for induced seismicity risk governance. That is, we suggest documenting individual expert judgements in induced seismicity elicitations before proceeding to consensual judgements, to convene larger expert panels in order not to cherry-pick the experts, and to aim for multi-organization multi-model assessments of EGS induced seismicity hazard and risk.

  12. Does expert opinion match the operational definition of the Lupus Low Disease Activity State (LLDAS)? A case-based construct validity study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Golder, Vera; Huq, Molla; Franklyn, Kate; Calderone, Alicia; Lateef, Aisha; Lau, Chak Sing; Lee, Alfred Lok Hang; Navarra, Sandra Teresa V; Godfrey, Timothy; Oon, Shereen; Hoi, Alberta Yik Bun; Morand, Eric Francis; Nikpour, Mandana

    2017-06-01

    To evaluate the construct validity of the Lupus Low Disease Activity State (LLDAS), a treatment target in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). Fifty SLE case summaries based on real patients were prepared and assessed independently for meeting the operational definition of LLDAS. Fifty international rheumatologists with expertise in SLE, but with no prior involvement in the LLDAS project, responded to a survey in which they were asked to categorize the disease activity state of each case as remission, low, moderate, or high. Agreement between expert opinion and LLDAS was assessed using Cohen's kappa. Overall agreement between expert opinion and the operational definition of LLDAS was 77.96% (95% CI: 76.34-79.58%), with a Cohen's kappa of 0.57 (95% CI: 0.55-0.61). Of the cases (22 of 50) that fulfilled the operational definition of LLDAS, only 5.34% (59 of 22 × 50) of responses classified the cases as moderate/high activity. Of the cases that did not fulfill the operational definition of LLDAS (28 of 50), 35.14% (492 of 28 × 50) of responses classified the cases as remission/low activity. Common reasons for discordance were assignment to remission/low activity of cases with higher corticosteroid doses than defined in LLDAS (prednisolone ≤ 7.5mg) or with SLEDAI-2K >4 due to serological activity (high anti-dsDNA antibody and/or low complement). LLDAS has good construct validity with high overall agreement between the operational definition of LLDAS and expert opinion. Discordance of results suggests that the operational definition of LLDAS is more stringent than expert opinion at defining a low disease activity state. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. Expert systems and nuclear safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beltracchi, L.

    1990-01-01

    The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and the Electric Power Research Institute have initiated a broad-based exploration of means to evaluate the potential applications of expert systems in the nuclear industry. This exploratory effort will assess the use of expert systems to augment the diagnostic and decision-making capabilities of personnel with the goal of enhancing productivity, reliability, and performance. The initial research effort is the development and documentation of guidelines for verifying and validating (V and V) expert systems. An initial application of expert systems in the nuclear industry is to aid operations and maintenance personnel in decision-making tasks. The scope of the decision aiding covers all types of cognitive behavior consisting of skill, rule, and knowledge-based behavior. For example, procedure trackers were designed and tested to support rule-based behavior. Further, these systems automate many of the tedious, error-prone human monitoring tasks, thereby reducing the potential for human error. The paper version of the procedure contains the knowledge base and the rules and thus serves as the basis of the design verification of the procedure tracker. Person-in-the-loop tests serve as the basis for the validation of a procedure tracker. When conducting validation tests, it is important to ascertain that the human retains the locus of control in the use of the expert system

  14. Comparing the treatment of uncertainty in Bayesian networks and fuzzy expert systems used for a human reliability analysis application

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baraldi, Piero; Podofillini, Luca; Mkrtchyan, Lusine; Zio, Enrico; Dang, Vinh N.

    2015-01-01

    The use of expert systems can be helpful to improve the transparency and repeatability of assessments in areas of risk analysis with limited data available. In this field, human reliability analysis (HRA) is no exception, and, in particular, dependence analysis is an HRA task strongly based on analyst judgement. The analysis of dependence among Human Failure Events refers to the assessment of the effect of an earlier human failure on the probability of the subsequent ones. This paper analyses and compares two expert systems, based on Bayesian Belief Networks and Fuzzy Logic (a Fuzzy Expert System, FES), respectively. The comparison shows that a BBN approach should be preferred in all the cases characterized by quantifiable uncertainty in the input (i.e. when probability distributions can be assigned to describe the input parameters uncertainty), since it provides a satisfactory representation of the uncertainty and its output is directly interpretable for use within PSA. On the other hand, in cases characterized by very limited knowledge, an analyst may feel constrained by the probabilistic framework, which requires assigning probability distributions for describing uncertainty. In these cases, the FES seems to lead to a more transparent representation of the input and output uncertainty. - Highlights: • We analyse treatment of uncertainty in two expert systems. • We compare a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) and a Fuzzy Expert System (FES). • We focus on the input assessment, inference engines and output assessment. • We focus on an application problem of interest for human reliability analysis. • We emphasize the application rather than math to reach non-BBN or FES specialists

  15. Expert system for aiding fuel exchange planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shiratori, Yoshitake.

    1992-01-01

    A fuel exchange plan is prepared based on intelligence bases such as a method of zoning a reactor core, a fuel arrangement rule and a procedure for fuel exchange, as well as initial data. Then, the fuel exchange plans are patterned to several groups based on the intelligence bases such as patterning of fuel arrangement. A typical pattern is analyzed by a reactor core analyzing code and allowance or rejection for the analyzed patterns is judged based on intelligence bases regarding life time of the reactor core, thermal limit value of fuels, burning of fuel for irradiation test. The result of the judgement is fed-back as an estimation information and the initial data and the intelligence data are added to prepare a plan again. A similar analysis is also conducted for the plan of the rejected group. The allowance or rejection is judged for all of the plans in the same manner. The intelligence bases are used and the result of the judgement is fed-back as a condition for estimation, thereby enabling to remarkably save labors and time and prepare non-typical exchange plans. (N.H.)

  16. Expert judgment for nuclear energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choi, Young Sung; Lee, Sun Ho; Lee, Byong Whi

    2000-01-01

    Public perception on nuclear energy is much influenced by subjective impressions mostly formed through sensational and dramatic news of mass media or anti-nuclear groups. However, nuclear experts, those who have more relevant knowledge and information about nuclear energy, may have reasonable opinion based on scientific facts or inferences. Thus their opinion and consensus should be examined and taken into account during the process of nuclear energy policy formulation. For the purpose of eliciting experts' opinion, the web-based on-line survey system (eBOSS) was developed. Using the survey system, experts' views on nuclear energy were tallied, analyzed and compared with the public's. Based on the survey results, the paper suggests some recommendations about the future direction of the public information program in Korea

  17. Metacomprehension judgements reflect the belief that diagrams improve learning from text.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serra, Michael J; Dunlosky, John

    2010-10-01

    In two experiments we systematically explored whether people consider the format of text materials when judging their text learning, and whether doing so might inappropriately bias their judgements. Participants studied either text with diagrams (multimedia) or text alone and made both per-paragraph judgements and global judgements of their text learning. In Experiment 1 they judged their learning to be better for text with diagrams than for text alone. In that study, however, test performance was greater for multimedia, so the judgements may reflect either a belief in the power of multimedia or on-line processing. Experiment 2 replicated this finding and also included a third group that read texts with pictures that did not improve text performance. Judgements made by this group were just as high as those made by participants who received the effective multimedia format. These results confirm the hypothesis that people's metacomprehension judgements can be influenced by their beliefs about text format. Over-reliance on this multimedia heuristic, however, might reduce judgement accuracy in situations where it is invalid.

  18. Reliability and validity of expert assessment based on airborne and urinary measures of nickel and chromium exposure in the electroplating industry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yu-Cheng; Coble, Joseph B; Deziel, Nicole C.; Ji, Bu-Tian; Xue, Shouzheng; Lu, Wei; Stewart, Patricia A; Friesen, Melissa C

    2014-01-01

    The reliability and validity of six experts’ exposure ratings were evaluated for 64 nickel-exposed and 72 chromium-exposed workers from six Shanghai electroplating plants based on airborne and urinary nickel and chromium measurements. Three industrial hygienists and three occupational physicians independently ranked the exposure intensity of each metal on an ordinal scale (1–4) for each worker's job in two rounds: the first round was based on responses to an occupational history questionnaire and the second round also included responses to an electroplating industry-specific questionnaire. Spearman correlation (rs) was used to compare each rating's validity to its corresponding subject-specific arithmetic mean of four airborne or four urinary measurements. Reliability was moderately-high (weighted kappa range=0.60–0.64). Validity was poor to moderate (rs= -0.37–0.46) for both airborne and urinary concentrations of both metals. For airborne nickel concentrations, validity differed by plant. For dichotomized metrics, sensitivity and specificity were higher based on urinary measurements (47–78%) than airborne measurements (16–50%). Few patterns were observed by metal, assessment round, or expert type. These results suggest that, for electroplating exposures, experts can achieve moderately-high agreement and (reasonably) distinguish between low and high exposures when reviewing responses to in-depth questionnaires used in population-based case-control studies. PMID:24736099

  19. Expert systems: an alternative paradigm

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Coombs, M.; Alty, J.

    1984-01-01

    There has recently been a significant effort by the AI community to interest industry in the potential of expert systems. However, this has resulted in far fewer substantial applications projects than might be expected. This article argues that this is because human experts are rarely required to perform the role that computer-based experts are programmed to adopt. Instead of being called in to answer well-defined problems, they are more often asked to assist other experts to extend and refine their understanding of a problem area at the junction of their two domains of knowledge. This more properly involves educational rather than problem-solving skills. An alternative approach to expert system design is proposed based upon guided discovery learning. The user is provided with a supportive environment for a particular class of problem, the system predominantly acting as an adviser rather than directing the interaction. The environment includes a database of domain knowledge, a set of procedures for its application to a concrete problem, and an intelligent machine-based adviser to judge the user's effectiveness and advise on strategy. The procedures focus upon the use of user generated explanations both to promote the application of domain knowledge and to expose understanding difficulties. Simple database PROLOG is being used as the subject material for the prototype system which is known as MINDPAD. 30 references.

  20. Medical expert system for assessment of coronary heart disease destabilization based on the analysis of the level of soluble vascular adhesion molecules

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serkova, Valentina K.; Pavlov, Sergey V.; Romanava, Valentina A.; Monastyrskiy, Yuriy I.; Ziepko, Sergey M.; Kuzminova, Nanaliya V.; Wójcik, Waldemar; DzierŻak, RóŻa; Kalizhanova, Aliya; Kashaganova, Gulzhan

    2017-08-01

    Theoretical and practical substantiation of the possibility of the using the level of soluble vascular adhesion molecules (sVCAM) is performed. Expert system for the assessment of coronary heart disease (CHD) destabilization on the base of the analysis of soluble vascular adhesion molecules level is developed. Correlation between the increase of VCAM level and C-reactive protein (CRP) in patients with different variants of CHD progression is established. Association of chronic nonspecific vascular inflammation activation and CHD destabilization is shown. The expedience of parallel determination of sVCAM and CRP levels for diagnostics of CHD destabilization and forecast elaboration is noted.

  1. WINE ADVISOR EXPERT SYSTEM USING DECISION RULES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dinuca Elena Claudia

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available In this article I focus on developing an expert system for advising the choice of wine that best matches a specific occasion. An expert system is a computer application that performs a task that would be performed by a human expert. The implementation is done using Delphi programming language. I used to represent the knowledge bases a set of rules. The rules are of type IF THEN ELSE rules, decision rules based on different important wine features.

  2. Estimation of performance shaping factors for overtime and shift length using expert judgment based on related assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vickroy, S.C.

    1986-01-01

    This paper presents the results of a study to estimate human performance and error rate under several amounts of overtime and different shifts without the use of human subjects. Ten chronobiology, fatigue, and shift scheduling experts were administered a questionnaire to rate the effects that several shifts and overtime amounts might have on the performance of individuals working under their constraints. The data from the ratings were transformed to generate performance shaping factors used for sensitivity analyses on three previously published probabilistic risk assessments. This procedure was performed to determine the effect that different shift schedules and amounts of overtime would have on overall plant performance. The results of the analysis suggest that the risk due to human errors caused by the shift scheduling and overtime could increase the risk of accidents at a nuclear power plant caused by humans by up to a factor of five. This could increase the chance for an accident at a nuclear power plant by a factor of about three

  3. Selection of the Best Wastewater Treatment Alternative for RIPI Based on Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP and Expert Choice Software

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    faramarz Tarkian

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available RIPI as one of the largest and most important research centers in Iran is located in zone 22 of Tehran municipality. According to the environmental priorities in the region taking all necessary measures to control pollution sources is necessary. In this paper, Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP method is used for the selection of the best wastewater treatment method for RIPI. For this purpose four alternatives including SBR, Extended aeration activated sludge, Rotating MBR, Fix MBR were evaluated. These alternatives were weighted by four main criteria: Environment, Economic, Technical, Management and the defined sub-criteria ,then paired compared with respect to any form of wastewater treatment alternatives and ultimately the results was evaluated by Expert Choice software. The evaluation results indicate that Rotating MBR was the most suitable alternative of wastewater treatment method for RIPI. After the Rotating MBR, the Fix MBR, SBR and Extended activated sludge were considered suitable respectively. Degree of inconsistency is equal to 0.07, indicating that the number of paired comparisons is consistent.

  4. Fuzzy Expert System based on a Novel Hybrid Stem Cell (HSC) Algorithm for Classification of Micro Array Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vijay, S Arul Antran; GaneshKumar, P

    2018-02-21

    In the growing scenario, microarray data is extensively used since it provides a more comprehensive understanding of genetic variants among diseases. As the gene expression samples have high dimensionality it becomes tedious to analyze the samples manually. Hence an automated system is needed to analyze these samples. The fuzzy expert system offers a clear classification when compared to the machine learning and statistical methodologies. In fuzzy classification, knowledge acquisition would be a major concern. Despite several existing approaches for knowledge acquisition much effort is necessary to enhance the learning process. This paper proposes an innovative Hybrid Stem Cell (HSC) algorithm that utilizes Ant Colony optimization and Stem Cell algorithm for designing fuzzy classification system to extract the informative rules to form the membership functions from the microarray dataset. The HSC algorithm uses a novel Adaptive Stem Cell Optimization (ASCO) to improve the points of membership function and Ant Colony Optimization to produce the near optimum rule set. In order to extract the most informative genes from the large microarray dataset a method called Mutual Information is used. The performance results of the proposed technique evaluated using the five microarray datasets are simulated. These results prove that the proposed Hybrid Stem Cell (HSC) algorithm produces a precise fuzzy system than the existing methodologies.

  5. Social workers as "experts" in the family court system: is evidence-based practice a missing link or host-created knowledge?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prescott, Dana E

    2013-10-01

    The graduate school curriculum for social workers requires that students learn to critically distinguish between opinion-based knowledge and evidence-based practices, or empirically-supported interventions. Once graduated, licensed social workers are often called upon to offer diagnostic and predictive opinions as experts in a variety of macro-environments. When the family courts are that "host" environment, social workers proffer expert opinions that may categorize and label parents or children for purposes of a judge's allocation of physical or legal custody. In this article, it is suggested that the social work profession, within all three domains of education, practice, and research, should more precisely link the design and fidelity of an evidence-based practice (EBP) with its potential misapplication or warping when proffered as science in "host" environments like family courts. As Foucault and other scholars warn, the failure to verify that an intervention is applied correctly may actually enhance the risk of social injustice by interpreting and translating EBP knowledge in the non-empirical form of authority-by-license. This article, therefore, proposes that the social work profession, from the classroom to the field, has an obligation to thoroughly understand and engage interdisciplinary practices that assure respect for the strengths and limits of social work knowledge.

  6. [Development and application of a web-based expert system using artificial intelligence for management of mental health by Korean emigrants].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bae, Jeongyee

    2013-04-01

    The purpose of this project was to develop an international web-based expert system using principals of artificial intelligence and user-centered design for management of mental health by Korean emigrants. Using this system, anyone can access the system via computer access to the web. Our design process utilized principles of user-centered design with 4 phases: needs assessment, analysis, design/development/testing, and application release. A survey was done with 3,235 Korean emigrants. Focus group interviews were also conducted. Survey and analysis results guided the design of the web-based expert system. With this system, anyone can check their mental health status by themselves using a personal computer. The system analyzes facts based on answers to automated questions, and suggests solutions accordingly. A history tracking mechanism enables monitoring and future analysis. In addition, this system will include intervention programs to promote mental health status. This system is interactive and accessible to anyone in the world. It is expected that this management system will contribute to Korean emigrants' mental health promotion and allow researchers and professionals to share information on mental health.

  7. Men dissociate sexual attraction from moral judgement more than women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    González-Álvarez, Julio

    2017-10-01

    Would you find an opposite-sex individual physically less attractive if you knew that he/she was a bad person? Would you feel the same if you were a man or a woman? This study examined whether gender differences exist in the influence of moral judgements on heterosexual physical attraction. In a first Experiment, participants (N = 214) rated on attractiveness photographs of opposite-sex persons. Each photograph was paired with a "good" and a "bad" (from a moral point of view) sentence to depict a quality or activity of the displayed person (i.e., she/he is a defender of human rights in an NGO vs. she/he belongs to a terrorist group). Compared with women, men were significantly less influenced by sentence valence in their attractiveness ratings. A second Experiment (N = 105) using photographs of very attractive people showed the same pattern of results. The data suggest that sexual attraction is relatively less permeable to moral factors in men, and that this sex difference is consistent with an evolutionary approach to human sexuality. © 2015 International Union of Psychological Science.

  8. Disrupting the right prefrontal cortex alters moral judgement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tassy, Sébastien; Oullier, Olivier; Duclos, Yann; Coulon, Olivier; Mancini, Julien; Deruelle, Christine; Attarian, Sharam; Felician, Olivier; Wicker, Bruno

    2012-03-01

    Humans daily face social situations involving conflicts between competing moral decision. Despite a substantial amount of studies published over the past 10 years, the respective role of emotions and reason, their possible interaction, and their behavioural expression during moral evaluation remains an unresolved issue. A dualistic approach to moral evaluation proposes that the right dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (rDLPFc) controls emotional impulses. However, recent findings raise the possibility that the right DLPFc processes emotional information during moral decision making. We used repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation (rTMS) to transiently disrupt rDLPFc activity before measuring decision making in the context of moral dilemmas. Results reveal an increase of the probability of utilitarian responses during objective evaluation of moral dilemmas in the rTMS group (compared to a SHAM one). This suggests that the right DLPFc function not only participates to a rational cognitive control process, but also integrates emotions generated by contextual information appraisal, which are decisive for response selection in moral judgements. © The Author (2011). Published by Oxford University Press.

  9. Effect of caffeine on prospective and retrospective duration judgements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gruber, Ronald P; Block, Richard A

    2003-07-01

    The effects of caffeine on prospective and retrospective duration judgements were evaluated in a double-blind placebo-controlled experiment. After taking either 200 mg caffeine or a placebo, participants touched a 17-sided polygon for 15 s. Then they verbally estimated the number of angles and the duration. Participants in the prospective group were told in advance they would be making a duration estimate, whereas those in the retrospective group were not told. Caffeine reduced duration estimates in the prospective condition but not in the retrospective condition. The effect of caffeine on very long duration comparisons (the past year compared with a year at one-half and one-quarter of one's age) was also evaluated, but none was found. The findings do not support the hypothesis that caffeine affects duration experience by increasing the internal clock rate as a result of its dopamine D(2) agonist properties. The hypothesis that caffeine produces its effect by enhancing memory was considered and rejected. The most parsimonious explanation is that caffeine increased arousal level, which led to a narrowing of the focus of attention to the most salient task. Copyright 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  10. Counterfactual thinking in moral judgement: an experimental study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simone eMigliore

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Counterfactual thinking is thinking about a past that did not happen. This is often the case in 'if only...' situations, where we wish something had or had not happened. To make a choice in a moral decision-making situation is particularly hard and, therefore, may be often associated with the imagination of a different outcome. The main aim of the present study is to investigate counterfactual thinking in the context of moral reasoning. We used a modified version of Greene’s moral dilemmas test, studying both the time needed to provide a counterfactual in the first and third person and the type of given response (in context-out of context in a sample of 90 healthy subjects.We found a longer response time for personal vs. impersonal moral dilemmas. This effect was enhanced in the first person perspective, while in the elderly there was an overall slowing of response time. Out of context/omissive responses were more frequent in the case of personal moral dilemmas presented in the first person version, with females showing a marked increase in this kind of response.These findings suggest that gender and perspective have a critical role in counterfactual thinking in the context of moral reasoning, and may have implications for the understanding of gender-related inclinations as well as differences in moral judgement.

  11. Generality of a congruity effect in judgements of relative order.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yang S; Chan, Michelle; Caplan, Jeremy B

    2014-10-01

    The judgement of relative order (JOR) procedure is used to investigate serial-order memory. Measuring response times, the wording of the instructions (whether the earlier or the later item was designated as the target) reversed the direction of search in subspan lists (Chan, Ross, Earle, & Caplan Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, 16(5), 945-951, 2009). If a similar congruity effect applied to above-span lists and, furthermore, with error rate as the measure, this could suggest how to model order memory across scales. Participants performed JORs on lists of nouns (Experiment 1: list lengths = 4, 6, 8, 10) or consonants (Experiment 2: list lengths = 4, 8). In addition to the usual distance, primacy, and recency effects, instructions interacted with serial position of the later probe in both experiments, not only in response time, but also in error rate, suggesting that availability, not just accessibility, is affected by instructions. The congruity effect challenges current memory models. We fitted Hacker's (Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Learning and Memory, 6(6), 651-675, 1980) self-terminating search model to our data and found that a switch in search direction could explain the congruity effect for short lists, but not longer lists. This suggests that JORs may need to be understood via direct-access models, adapted to produce a congruity effect, or a mix of mechanisms.

  12. Inductive acquisition of expert knowledge

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Muggleton, S.H.

    1986-01-01

    Expert systems divide neatly into two categories: those in which (1) the expert decisions result in changes to some external environment (control systems), and (2) the expert decisions merely seek to describe the environment (classification systems). Both the explanation of computer-based reasoning and the bottleneck (Feigenbaum, 1979) of knowledge acquisition are major issues in expert-systems research. The author contributed to these areas of research in two ways: 1. He implemented an expert-system shell, the Mugol environment, which facilitates knowledge acquisition by inductive inference and provides automatic explanation of run-time reasoning on demand. RuleMaster, a commercial version of this environment, was used to advantage industrially in the construction and testing of two large classification systems. 2. He investigated a new techniques called 'sequence induction' that can be used in construction of control systems. Sequence induction is based on theoretical work in grammatical learning. He improved existing grammatical learning algorithms as well as suggesting and theoretically characterizing new ones. These algorithms were successfully applied to acquisition of knowledge for a diverse set of control systems, including inductive construction of robot plans and chess end-gam strategies.

  13. Der Patient als Experte.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dubs

    1998-01-01

    Patients as Experts: Determining Benefit by Using Assessments of Ability (ICIDH)When health economy and quality mangement are dealing with the cost-benefit relationship, to this day description, calculation, and assessment of the benefit are missing to a great extent. Deliberations in terms of cause and effect do not go beyond the model of pathogenesis (etiology - pathology - manifestation) and descriptions on the organ level (ICD). Only the international classification of impairments, disabilities, and handicaps (ICIDH) as a separate estimation of the resulting manifestations of illness on the levels of organ, individual, and society is capable to elucidate this benefit. It is the patient who is the expert to decide what he needs, what he wants, and what he can do, thus, evaluating on an individual level his loss of capability. The ICIDH is regarded as the key for the management of chronic diseases. The characteristics of being chronically ill require the integration of salutogenesis and the consideration of the hierarchy of needs. The specially developed MARA model serves as pragmatic basis for the description of the benefits of carried out and omitted interventions as changes of abilities by using the MARA curve (mean age-related ability) as ethical guideline. In quality circles the MARA model, which is based on ICIDH, hierarchy of needs and salutogenesis, can offer apatient-oriented basis of discussion for benefit assessments, and, in a pragmatical way, it can facilitate the introduction of evidence-based medicine. By the change of view from the organ level with multifactorial aspects to the individual level, in which the abilities can be understood as a monofactor, a high consensus potential between several participants of discussion in health service is possible.

  14. Application of expert systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Basden, A

    1983-11-01

    This article seeks to bring together a number of issues relevant to the application of expert systems by discussing their advantages and limitations, their roles and benefits, and the influence that real-life applications might have on the design of expert systems software. Part of the expert systems strategy of one major chemical company is outlined. Because it was in constructing one particular expert system that many of these issues became important this system is described briefly at the start of the paper and used to illustrate much of the later discussion. It is of the plausible-inference type and has application in the field of materials engineering. 22 references.

  15. Being an expert

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brechet, Y.; Musseau, O.; Bruna, G.; Sperandio, M.; Roulleaux-Dugage, M.; Andrieux, S.; Metteau, L.

    2014-01-01

    This series of short articles are dedicated to the role of the expert in the enterprise. There is an important difference between a scientific counsellor and an expert, the expert, recognized by his peers, can speak publicly in his field of expertise but has a duty of transparency while the job of a scientific counsellor requires confidentiality. The making and the use of an expert in an enterprise requires a dedicated organization. The organization of the expertise in 5 enterprises in nuclear industry are considered: CEA (French Alternative Energies and Atomic Energy Commission), IRSN (Institute of Radioprotection and Nuclear Safety), AREVA, ANDRA (National Radioactive Waste Management Agency) and EDF (Electricity of France)

  16. The Language of Appraisal in British Advertisements: The Construal of Attitudinal Judgement

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Agata Križan

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The article explores the occurrence and frequency of use of attitudinal judgement in British advertisement texts. Judgement, as one of the main attitudinal categories in the discourse-semantic appraisal model (Martin and White 2005, is concerned with the evaluation of human character and behaviour. The article focuses on the judgement categories of capability and propriety, as the research described concludes that they are the most frequently occurring of the judgement categories. Some typical instances encoding capability and propriety are discussed in terms of explicit and implicit manifestation. The article demonstrates that capability and propriety often participate in attitudinal double-coding due to the brevity of advertising texts and the creativity of advertising language. Capability and propriety are strongly socially motivated: they impose values upon the potential consumer, and hence upon society, and through them create social roles for the participants in the advertising interaction.

  17. Depressive realism and the effect of intertrial interval on judgements of zero, positive, and negative contingencies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Msetfi, Rachel M; Murphy, Robin A; Simpson, Jane

    2007-03-01

    In three experiments we tested how the spacing of trials during acquisition of zero, positive, and negative response-outcome contingencies differentially affected depressed and nondepressed students' judgements. Experiment 1 found that nondepressed participants' judgements of zero contingencies increased with longer intertrial intervals (ITIs) but not simply longer procedure durations. Depressed groups' judgements were not sensitive to either manipulation, producing an effect known as depressive realism only with long ITIs. Experiments 2 and 3 tested predictions of Cheng's (1997) Power PC theory and the Rescorla-Wagner (1972) model, that the increase in context exposure experienced during the ITI might influence judgements most with negative contingencies and least with positive contingencies. Results suggested that depressed people were less sensitive to differences in contingency and contextual exposure. We propose that a context-processing difference between depressed and nondepressed people removes any objective notion of "realism" that was originally employed to explain the depressive realism effect (Alloy & Abramson, 1979).

  18. The Relation of Birth Order, Social Class, and Need Achievement to Independent Judgement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhine, W. Ray

    1974-01-01

    This article reports an investigation in which the brith order, social class, and level of achievement arousal are the variables considered when fifth and sixth-grade girls make independent judgements in performing a set task. (JH)

  19. Expert systems in clinical practice

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Renaud-Salis, J.L.

    1987-01-01

    The first expert systems prototypes intended for advising physicians on diagnosis or therapy selection have been designed more than ten years ago. However, a few of them are already in use in clinical practice after years of research and development efforts. The capabilities of these systems to reason symbolically and to mimic the hypothetico-deductive processes used by physicians distinguishes them from conventional computer programs. Their power comes from their knowledge-base which embeds a large quantity of high-level, specialized knowledge captured from medical experts. Common methods for knowledge representation include production rules and frames. These methods also provide a mean for organizing and structuring the knowledge according to hierarchical or causal links. The best expert-systems perform at the level of the experts. They are easy to learn and use, and can communicate with the user in pseudo-natural language. Moreover they are able to explain their line of reasoning. These capabilities make them potentially useful, usable and acceptable by physicians. However if the problems related to difficulties and costs in building expert-systems are on the way to be solved within the next few years, forensic and ethical issues should have to be addressed before one can envisage their routine use in clinical practice [fr

  20. HE's "Get-out-of-Jail-Free Card": The Future of Judicial Deference to the Exercise of Expert Academic Judgement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palfreyman, David

    2010-01-01

    The prime feature of the student's legal relationship with his or her university is that it is governed by contract law, and in all other aspects of life such a contract can be reviewed/investigated by the courts in the event of a dispute between the two parties to the contract. In the world of academe, however, the key aspect of the contract (the…