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  1. Identification and targeting of a TACE-dependent autocrine loopwhich predicts poor prognosis in breast cancer

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    Kenny, Paraic A.; Bissell, Mina J.

    2005-06-15

    The ability to proliferate independently of signals from other cell types is a fundamental characteristic of tumor cells. Using a 3D culture model of human breast cancer progression, we have delineated a protease-dependent autocrine loop which provides an oncogenic stimulus in the absence of proto-oncogene mutation. Inhibition of this protease, TACE/ADAM17, reverts the malignant phenotype by preventing mobilization of two crucial growth factors, Amphiregulin and TGF{alpha}. We show further that the efficacy of EGFR inhibitors is overcome by physiological levels of growth factors and that successful EGFR inhibition is dependent on reducing ligand bioavailability. Using existing patient outcome data, we demonstrate a strong correlation between TACE and TGF{alpha} expression in human breast cancers that is predictive of poor prognosis.

  2. Network dynamics determine the autocrine and paracrine signaling functions of TNF

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    Caldwell, Andrew B.; Cheng, Zhang; Vargas, Jesse D.; Birnbaum, Harry A.

    2014-01-01

    A hallmark of the inflammatory response to pathogen exposure is the production of tumor necrosis factor (TNF) that coordinates innate and adaptive immune responses by functioning in an autocrine or paracrine manner. Numerous molecular mechanisms contributing to TNF production have been identified, but how they function together in macrophages remains unclear. Here, we pursued an iterative systems biology approach to develop a quantitative understanding of the regulatory modules that control TNF mRNA synthesis and processing, mRNA half-life and translation, and protein processing and secretion. By linking the resulting model of TNF production to models of the TLR-, the TNFR-, and the NFκB signaling modules, we were able to study TNF’s functions during the inflammatory response to diverse TLR agonists. Contrary to expectation, we predicted and then experimentally confirmed that in response to lipopolysaccaride, TNF does not have an autocrine function in amplifying the NFκB response, although it plays a potent paracrine role in neighboring cells. However, in response to CpG DNA, autocrine TNF extends the duration of NFκB activity and shapes CpG-induced gene expression programs. Our systems biology approach revealed that network dynamics of MyD88 and TRIF signaling and of cytokine production and response govern the stimulus-specific autocrine and paracrine functions of TNF. PMID:25274725

  3. Autocrine Effects of Tumor-Derived Complement

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    Min Soon Cho

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available We describe a role for the complement system in enhancing cancer growth. Cancer cells secrete complement proteins that stimulate tumor growth upon activation. Complement promotes tumor growth via a direct autocrine effect that is partially independent of tumor-infiltrating cytotoxic T cells. Activated C5aR and C3aR signal through the PI3K/AKT pathway in cancer cells, and silencing the PI3K or AKT gene in cancer cells eliminates the progrowth effects of C5aR and C3aR stimulation. In patients with ovarian or lung cancer, higher tumoral C3 or C5aR mRNA levels were associated with decreased overall survival. These data identify a role for tumor-derived complement proteins in promoting tumor growth, and they therefore have substantial clinical and therapeutic implications.

  4. Autocrine signal transmission with extracellular ligand degradation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Muratov, C B; Posta, F; Shvartsman, S Y

    2009-01-01

    Traveling waves of cell signaling in epithelial layers orchestrate a number of important processes in developing and adult tissues. These waves can be mediated by positive feedback autocrine loops, a mode of cell signaling where binding of a diffusible extracellular ligand to a cell surface receptor can lead to further ligand release. We formulate and analyze a biophysical model that accounts for ligand-induced ligand release, extracellular ligand diffusion and ligand–receptor interaction. We focus on the case when the main mode for ligand degradation is extracellular and analyze the problem with the sharp threshold positive feedback nonlinearity. We derive expressions that link the speed of propagation and other characteristics of traveling waves to the parameters of the biophysical processes, such as diffusion rates, receptor expression level, etc. Analyzing the derived expressions we found that traveling waves in such systems can exhibit a number of unusual properties, e.g. non-monotonic dependence of the speed of propagation on ligand diffusivity. Our results for the fully developed traveling fronts can be used to analyze wave initiation from localized perturbations, a scenario that frequently arises in the in vitro models of epithelial wound healing, and guide future modeling studies of cell communication in epithelial layers

  5. Autocrine Human Growth Hormone Stimulates Oncogenicity of Endometrial Carcinoma Cells

    OpenAIRE

    Pandey, Vijay; Perry, Jo K.; Mohankumar, Kumarasamypet M.; Kong, Xiang-Jun; Liu, Shu-Min; Wu, Zheng-Sheng; Mitchell, Murray D.; Zhu, Tao; Lobie, Peter E.

    2008-01-01

    Recent published data have demonstrated elevated levels of human GH (hGH) in endometriosis and endometrial adenocarcinoma. Herein, we demonstrate that autocrine production of hGH can enhance the in vitro and in vivo oncogenic potential of endometrial carcinoma cells. Forced expression of hGH in endometrial carcinoma cell lines RL95-2 and AN3 resulted in an increased total cell number through enhanced cell cycle progression and decreased apoptotic cell death. In addition, autocrine hGH express...

  6. Probing Embryonic Stem Cell Autocrine and Paracrine Signaling Using Microfluidics

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    Przybyla, Laralynne; Voldman, Joel

    2012-07-01

    Although stem cell fate is traditionally manipulated by exogenously altering the cells' extracellular signaling environment, the endogenous autocrine and paracrine signals produced by the cells also contribute to their two essential processes: self-renewal and differentiation. Autocrine and/or paracrine signals are fundamental to both embryonic stem cell self-renewal and early embryonic development, but the nature and contributions of these signals are often difficult to fully define using conventional methods. Microfluidic techniques have been used to explore the effects of cell-secreted signals by controlling cell organization or by providing precise control over the spatial and temporal cellular microenvironment. Here we review how such techniques have begun to be adapted for use with embryonic stem cells, and we illustrate how many remaining questions in embryonic stem cell biology could be addressed using microfluidic technologies.

  7. Active CREB1 promotes a malignant TGFβ2 autocrine loop in glioblastoma.

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    Rodón, Laura; Gonzàlez-Juncà, Alba; Inda, María del Mar; Sala-Hojman, Ada; Martínez-Sáez, Elena; Seoane, Joan

    2014-10-01

    In advanced cancer, including glioblastoma, the TGFβ pathway acts as an oncogenic factor. Some tumors exhibit aberrantly high TGFβ activity, and the mechanisms underlying this phenomenon are not well understood. We have observed that TGFβ can induce TGFβ2, generating an autocrine loop leading to aberrantly high levels of TGFβ2. We identified cAMP-responsive element-binding protein 1 (CREB1) as the critical mediator of the induction of TGFβ2 by TGFβ. CREB1 binds to the TGFB2 gene promoter in cooperation with SMAD3 and is required for TGFβ to activate transcription. Moreover, the PI3K-AKT and RSK pathways regulate the TGFβ2 autocrine loop through CREB1. The levels of CREB1 and active phosphorylated CREB1 correlate with TGFβ2 in glioblastoma. In addition, using patient-derived in vivo models of glioblastoma, we found that CREB1 levels determine the expression of TGFβ2. Our results show that CREB1 can be considered a biomarker to stratify patients for anti-TGFβ treatments and a therapeutic target in glioblastoma. TGFβ is considered a promising therapeutic target, and several clinical trials using TGFβ inhibitors are generating encouraging results. Here, we discerned the molecular mechanisms responsible for the aberrantly high levels of TGFβ2 found in certain tumors, and we propose biomarkers to predict the clinical response to anti-TGFβ therapies. ©2014 American Association for Cancer Research.

  8. Autocrine VEGF isoforms differentially regulate endothelial cell behavior

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    Hideki Yamamoto

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Vascular endothelial growth factor A (VEGF is involved in all the essential biology of endothelial cells, from proliferation to vessel function, by mediating intercellular interactions and monolayer integrity. It is expressed as three major alternative spliced variants. In mice, these are VEGF120, VEGF164, and VEGF188, each with different affinities for extracellular matrices and cell surfaces, depending on the inclusion of heparin-binding sites, encoded by exons 6 and 7. To determine the role of each VEGF isoform in endothelial homeostasis, we compared phenotypes of primary endothelial cells isolated from lungs of mice expressing single VEGF isoforms in normoxic and hypoxic conditions. The differential expression and distribution of VEGF isoforms affect endothelial cell functions, such as proliferation, adhesion, migration and integrity, which are dependent on the stability of and affinity to VEGF receptor 2 (VEGFR2. We found a correlation between autocrine VEGF164 and VEGFR2 stability, which is also associated with increased expression of proteins involved in cell adhesion. Endothelial cells expressing only VEGF188, which localizes to extracellular matrices or cell surfaces, presented a mesenchymal morphology and weakened monolayer integrity. Cells expressing only VEGF120 lacked stable VEGFR2 and dysfunctional downstream processes, rendering the cells unviable. Endothelial cells expressing these different isoforms in isolation also had differing rates of apoptosis, proliferation, and signaling via nitric oxide (NO synthesis. These data indicate that autocrine signaling of each VEGF isoform has unique functions on endothelial homeostasis and response to hypoxia, due to both distinct VEGF distribution and VEGFR2 stability, which appears to be, at least partly, affected by differential NO production. This study demonstrates that each autocrine VEGF isoform has a distinct effect on downstream functions, namely VEGFR2-regulated endothelial cell

  9. Autocrine signaling is a key regulatory element during osteoclastogenesis

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    Paul Kopesky

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Osteoclasts are responsible for bone destruction in degenerative, inflammatory and metastatic bone disorders. Although osteoclastogenesis has been well-characterized in mouse models, many questions remain regarding the regulation of osteoclast formation in human diseases. We examined the regulation of human precursors induced to differentiate and fuse into multinucleated osteoclasts by receptor activator of nuclear factor kappa-B ligand (RANKL. High-content single cell microscopy enabled the time-resolved quantification of both the population of monocytic precursors and the emerging osteoclasts. We observed that prior to induction of osteoclast fusion, RANKL stimulated precursor proliferation, acting in part through an autocrine mediator. Cytokines secreted during osteoclastogenesis were resolved using multiplexed quantification combined with a Partial Least Squares Regression model to identify the relative importance of specific cytokines for the osteoclastogenesis outcome. Interleukin 8 (IL-8 was identified as one of RANKL-induced cytokines and validated for its role in osteoclast formation using inhibitors of the IL-8 cognate receptors CXCR1 and CXCR2 or an IL-8 blocking antibody. These insights demonstrate that autocrine signaling induced by RANKL represents a key regulatory component of human osteoclastogenesis.

  10. Autocrine and Paracrine Mechanisms Promoting Chemoresistance in Cholangiocarcinoma

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    Massimiliano Cadamuro

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Resistance to conventional chemotherapeutic agents, a typical feature of cholangiocarcinoma, prevents the efficacy of the therapeutic arsenal usually used to combat malignancy in humans. Mechanisms of chemoresistance by neoplastic cholangiocytes include evasion of drug-induced apoptosis mediated by autocrine and paracrine cues released in the tumor microenvironment. Here, recent evidence regarding molecular mechanisms of chemoresistance is reviewed, as well as associations between well-developed chemoresistance and activation of the cancer stem cell compartment. It is concluded that improved understanding of the complex interplay between apoptosis signaling and the promotion of cell survival represent potentially productive areas for active investigation, with the ultimate aim of encouraging future studies to unveil new, effective strategies able to overcome current limitations on treatment.

  11. Autocrine prolactin: an emerging market for homegrown (prolactin) despite the imports

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    Muthuswamy, Senthil K.

    2012-01-01

    Prolactin (PRL) is a peptide hormone that is produced by the pituitary gland and is known to regulate lactogenic differentiation. There is a significant body of evidence that points to autocrine production of prolactin and activation of an autocrine/paracrine signaling pathway to regulate cell proliferation and migration and inhibition of cell death. This perspective highlights the recent study in the October 1, 2012, issue of Genes & Development by Chen and colleagues (pp. 2154–2168) that describes a mechanism for autocrine prolactin production and places the finding in the context of a role for prolactin in breast development and cancer. PMID:23070811

  12. Distinguishing autocrine and paracrine signals in hematopoietic stem cell culture using a biofunctional microcavity platform

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    Müller, Eike; Wang, Weijia; Qiao, Wenlian; Bornhäuser, Martin; Zandstra, Peter W.; Werner, Carsten; Pompe, Tilo

    2016-08-01

    Homeostasis of hematopoietic stem cells (HSC) in the mammalian bone marrow stem cell niche is regulated by signals of the local microenvironment. Besides juxtacrine, endocrine and metabolic cues, paracrine and autocrine signals are involved in controlling quiescence, proliferation and differentiation of HSC with strong implications on expansion and differentiation ex vivo as well as in vivo transplantation. Towards this aim, a cell culture analysis on a polymer microcavity carrier platform was combined with a partial least square analysis of a mechanistic model of cell proliferation. We could demonstrate the discrimination of specific autocrine and paracrine signals from soluble factors as stimulating and inhibitory effectors in hematopoietic stem and progenitor cell culture. From that we hypothesize autocrine signals to be predominantly involved in maintaining the quiescent state of HSC in single-cell niches and advocate our analysis platform as an unprecedented option for untangling convoluted signaling mechanisms in complex cell systems being it of juxtacrine, paracrine or autocrine origin.

  13. BDNF, produced by a TPO-stimulated megakaryocytic cell line, regulates autocrine proliferation

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    Tamura, Shogo [Graduate School of Health Sciences, Hokkaido University, Sapporo (Japan); Research Fellow of the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Tokyo (Japan); Nagasawa, Ayumi; Masuda, Yuya; Tsunematsu, Tetsuya [Graduate School of Health Sciences, Hokkaido University, Sapporo (Japan); Hayasaka, Koji; Matsuno, Kazuhiko; Shimizu, Chikara [Division of Laboratory and Transfusion Medicine, Hokkaido University Hospital, Sapporo (Japan); Ozaki, Yukio [Department of Clinical and Laboratory Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, University of Yamanashi (Japan); Moriyama, Takanori, E-mail: moriyama@hs.hokuda.ac.jp [Medical Laboratory Science, Faculty of Health Sciences, Hokkaido University, Sapporo (Japan)

    2012-10-26

    Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer It has been thought that BDNF is not produced in the megakaryocytic lineage. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer MEG-01 produces BDNF upon TPO stimulation and regulates its proliferation. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer BDNF accelerates proliferation of MEG-01 in an autocrine manner. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer BDNF may be an autocrine MEG-CSF, which regulates megakaryopoiesis. -- Abstract: While human platelets release endogenous brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) upon activation, a previous report on MEG-01, a megakaryocytic cell line, found no trace of BDNF production, and the pathophysiological function of platelet BDNF has remained elusive. In the present study, we demonstrate that MEG-01 produces BDNF in the presence of TPO and that this serves to potentiate cell proliferation. Our in vitro findings suggest that BDNF regulates MEG-01 proliferation in an autocrine manner, and we suggest that BDNF may be a physiological autocrine regulator of megakaryocyte progenitors.

  14. Autocrine-paracrine regulation of the mammary gland.

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    Weaver, S R; Hernandez, L L

    2016-01-01

    The mammary gland has a remarkable capacity for regulation at a local level, particularly with respect to its main function: milk secretion. Regulation of milk synthesis has significant effects on animal and human health, at the level of both the mother and the neonate. Control by the mammary gland of its essential function, milk synthesis, is an evolutionary necessity and is therefore tightly regulated at a local level. For at least the last 60 yr, researchers have been interested in elucidating the mechanisms underpinning the mammary gland's ability to self-regulate, largely without the influence from systemic hormones or signals. By the 1960s, scientists realized the importance of milk removal in the capacity of the gland to produce milk and that the dynamics of this removal, including emptying of the alveolar spaces and frequency of milking, were controlled locally as opposed to traditional systemic hormonal regulation. Using both in vitro systems and various mammalian species, including goats, marsupials, humans, and dairy cows, it has been demonstrated that the mammary gland is largely self-regulating in its capacity to support the young, which is the evolutionary basis for milk production. Local control occurs at the level of the mammary epithelial cell through pressure and stretching negative-feedback mechanisms, and also in an autocrine fashion through bioactive factors within the milk which act as inhibitors, regulating milk secretion within the alveoli themselves. It is only within the last 20 to 30 yr that potential candidates for these bioactive factors have been examined at a molecular level. Several, including parathyroid hormone-related protein, growth factors (transforming growth factor, insulin-like growth factor, epidermal growth factor), and serotonin, are synthesized within and act upon the gland and possess dynamic receptor activity resulting in diverse effects on growth, calcium homeostasis, and milk composition. This review will focus on the

  15. Endocrine, paracrine, and autocrine placental mediators in labor.

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    Iliodromiti, Zoe; Antonakopoulos, Nikolaos; Sifakis, Stavros; Tsikouras, Panagiotis; Daniilidis, Angelos; Dafopoulos, Kostantinos; Botsis, Dimitrios; Vrachnis, Nikolaos

    2012-01-01

    Considering that preterm birth accounts for about 6-10% of all births in Western countries and of more than 65% of all perinatal deaths, elucidation of the particularly complicated mechanisms of labor is essential for determination of appropriate and effective therapeutic interventions. Labor in humans results from a complex interplay of fetal and maternal factors, which act upon the uterus to trigger pathways leading gradually to a coordinated cervical ripening and myometrial contractility. Although the exact mechanism of labor still remains uncertain, several components have been identified and described in detail. Based on the major role played by the human placenta in pregnancy and the cascade of labor processes activated via placental mediators exerting endocrine, paracrine, and autocrine actions, this review article has aimed at presenting the role of these mediators in term and preterm labor and the molecular pathways of their actions. Some of the aforementioned mediators are involved in myometrial activation and preparation and others in myometrial stimulation leading to delivery. In the early stages of pregnancy, myometrial molecules, like progesterone, nitric oxide, and relaxin, contribute to the retention of pregnancy. At late stages of gestation, fetal hypothalamus maturation signals act on the placenta causing the production of hormones, including CRH, in an endocrine manner; the signals then enhance paracrinically the production of more hormones, such as estrogens and neuropeptides, that contribute to cervical ripening and uterine contractility. These molecules act directly on the myometrium through specific receptors, while cytokines and multiple growth factors are also produced, additionally contributing to labor. In situations leading to preterm labor, as in maternal stress and fetal infection, cytokines trigger placental signaling sooner, thus leading to preterm birth.

  16. Reactive Oxygen Species Alter Autocrine and Paracrine Signaling

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    Zangar, Richard C.; Bollinger, Nikki; Weber, Thomas J.; Tan, Ruimin; Markillie, Lye Meng; Karin, Norman J.

    2011-12-01

    Cytochrome P450 (P450) 3A4 (CYP3A4) is the most abundant P450 protein in human liver and intestine and is highly inducible by a variety of drugs and other compounds. The P450 catalytic cycle is known to uncouple and release reactive oxygen species (ROS), but the effects of ROS from P450 and other enzymes in the endo-plasmic reticulum have been poorly studied from the perspective of effects on cell biology. In this study, we expressed low levels of CYP3A4 in HepG2 cells, a human hepatocarcinoma cell line, and examined effects on intracellular levels of ROS and on the secretion of a variety of growth factors that are important in extracellular communication. Using the redox-sensitive dye RedoxSensor red, we demonstrate that CYP3A4 expression increases levels of ROS in viable cells. A customELISA microarray platform was employed to demonstrate that expression of CYP3A4 increased secretion of amphiregulin, intracellular adhesion molecule 1, matrix metalloprotease 2, platelet-derived growth factor (PDGF), and vascular endothelial growth factor, but suppressed secretion of CD14. The antioxidant N-acetylcysteine suppressed all P450-dependent changes in protein secretion except for CD14. Quantitative RT-PCR demonstrated that changes in protein secretion were consistently associated with corresponding changes in gene expression. Inhibition of the NF-{kappa}B pathway blocked P450 effects on PDGF secretion. CYP3A4 expression also altered protein secretion in human mammary epithelial cells and C10 mouse lung cells. Overall, these results suggest that increased ROS production in the endoplasmic reticulum alters the secretion of proteins that have key roles in paracrine and autocrine signaling.

  17. Reevaluation of the proposed autocrine proliferative function of prolactin in breast cancer

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    Nitze, Louise Maymann; Galsgaard, Elisabeth Douglas; Din, Nanni

    2013-01-01

    The pituitary hormone prolactin (PRL) has been implicated in tumourigenesis. Expression of PRL and its receptor (PRLR) was reported in human breast epithelium and breast cancer cells. It was suggested that PRL may act as an autocrine/paracrine growth factor. Here, we addressed the role of locally...

  18. Plant Reproduction: Autocrine Machinery for the Long Journey of the Pollen Tube.

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    Higashiyama, Tetsuya

    2018-03-19

    Many receptor-like kinases localized at the pollen tube tip precisely control tube functions in flowering plants. Two recent reports have identified autocrine peptide ligands and receptor systems, providing insight into the molecular machinery that controls pollen tube growth and termination. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Loss of autocrine endothelial-derived VEGF significantly reduces hemangiosarcoma development in conditional p53-deficient mice.

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    Farhang Ghahremani, Morvarid; Radaelli, Enrico; Haigh, Katharina; Bartunkova, Sonia; Haenebalcke, Lieven; Marine, Jean-Christophe; Goossens, Steven; Haigh, Jody J

    2014-01-01

    Malignant transformation of the endothelium is rare, and hemangiosarcomas comprise only 1% of all sarcomas. For this reason and due to the lack of appropriate mouse models, the genetic mechanisms of malignant endothelial transformation are poorly understood. Here, we describe a hemangiosarcoma mouse model generated by deleting p53 specifically in the endothelial and hematopoietic lineages. This strategy led to a high incidence of hemangiosarcoma, with an average latency of 25 weeks. To study the in vivo roles of autocrine or endothelial cell autonomous VEGF signaling in the initiation and/or progression of hemangiosarcomas, we genetically deleted autocrine endothelial sources of VEGF in this mouse model. We found that loss of even a single conditional VEGF allele results in substantial rescue from endothelial cell transformation. These findings highlight the important role of threshold levels of autocrine VEGF signaling in endothelial malignancies and suggest a new approach for hemangiosarcoma treatment using targeted autocrine VEGF inhibition.

  20. Endothelium-derived fibronectin regulates neonatal vascular morphogenesis in an autocrine fashion.

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    Turner, Christopher J; Badu-Nkansah, Kwabena; Hynes, Richard O

    2017-11-01

    Fibronectin containing alternatively spliced EIIIA and EIIIB domains is largely absent from mature quiescent vessels in adults, but is highly expressed around blood vessels during developmental and pathological angiogenesis. The precise functions of fibronectin and its splice variants during developmental angiogenesis however remain unclear due to the presence of cardiac, somitic, mesodermal and neural defects in existing global fibronectin KO mouse models. Using a rare family of surviving EIIIA EIIIB double KO mice, as well as inducible endothelial-specific fibronectin-deficient mutant mice, we show that vascular development in the neonatal retina is regulated in an autocrine manner by endothelium-derived fibronectin, and requires both EIIIA and EIIIB domains and the RGD-binding α5 and αv integrins for its function. Exogenous sources of fibronectin do not fully substitute for the autocrine function of endothelial fibronectin, demonstrating that fibronectins from different sources contribute differentially to specific aspects of angiogenesis.

  1. Autocrine effects of transgenic resistin reduce palmitate and glucose oxidation in brown adipose tissue

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Pravenec, Michal; Mlejnek, Petr; Zídek, Václav; Landa, Vladimír; Šimáková, Miroslava; Šilhavý, Jan; Strnad, Hynek; Eigner, Sebastian; Eigner-Henke, Kateřina; Škop, V.; Malínská, H.; Trnovská, J.; Kazdová, L.; Drahota, Zdeněk; Mráček, Tomáš; Houštěk, Josef

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 48, č. 6 (2016), s. 420-427 ISSN 1094-8341 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) LL1204; GA ČR(CZ) GB14-36804G; GA MZd(CZ) NT14325 Institutional support: RVO:67985823 ; RVO:68378050 ; RVO:61389005 Keywords : brown adipose tissue * autocrine * transgenic * spontaneously hypertensive rat Subject RIV: FB - Endocrinology, Diabetology, Metabolism, Nutrition Impact factor: 3.044, year: 2016

  2. DNMT3A and DNMT3B mediate autocrine hGH repression of plakoglobin gene transcription and consequent phenotypic conversion of mammary carcinoma cells.

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    Shafiei, F; Rahnama, F; Pawella, L; Mitchell, M D; Gluckman, P D; Lobie, P E

    2008-04-17

    Directed by microarray analyses, we report that autocrine human growth hormone (hGH) increased the mRNA and protein expression of DNA methyltransferase 1 (DNMT1), DNMT3A and DNMT3B in mammary carcinoma cells. Autocrine hGH stimulation of DNMT3A and DNMT3B expression was mediated by JAK2 and Src kinases, and treatment of mammary carcinoma cells with the DNMT inhibitor, 5'-aza-2'-deoxycytidine (AZA), abrogated autocrine hGH-stimulated cellular proliferation, apoptosis and anchorage-independent growth. AZA reversed the epitheliomesenchymal transition of mammary carcinoma cells induced by autocrine hGH, to an epithelioid morphology and abrogated cell migration stimulated by autocrine hGH. Autocrine hGH-stimulated hypermethylation of the first exon of the PLAKOGLOBIN gene and AZA abrogated the ability of autocrine hGH to repress plakoglobin gene transcription. Small interfering RNA (siRNA)-mediated depletion of the individual DNMT molecules did not release autocrine hGH repression of PLAKOGLOBIN promoter activity nor did individual DNMT depletion affect autocrine hGH-stimulated migration. However, concomitant siRNA-mediated depletion of both DNMT3A and DNMT3B abrogated hypermethylation of the PLAKOGLOBIN gene stimulated by autocrine hGH and subsequent repression of plakoglobin gene transcription and increased cell migration. Thus, the autocrine hGH-stimulated increases in DNMT3A and DNMT3B expression mediate repression of plakoglobin gene transcription by direct hypermethylation of its promoter and consequent phenotypic conversion of mammary carcinoma cells. Autocrine hGH, therefore, utilizes DNA methylation as a mechanism to exert its oncogenic effects in mammary carcinoma cells.

  3. Differential effects of exogenous and autocrine growth hormone on LNCaP prostate cancer cell proliferation and survival.

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    Nakonechnaya, Alona O; Jefferson, Holly S; Chen, Xiaofei; Shewchuk, Brian M

    2013-06-01

    The prostate gland is regulated by multiple hormones and growth factors that may also affect prostate tumorigenesis. Growth hormone (GH) contributes to prostate development and function, but the direct effects of GH on prostate cancer cells are not well understood. The expression of endogenous GH in prostate cancer cell lines has also been observed, suggesting the potential for an effect of autocrine GH. In the present study, we measure the levels of GH and GH receptor (GHR) mRNA in multiple prostate cancer and normal prostate-derived cell lines, and compare the effects of exogenous and autocrine GH on LNCaP prostate cancer cell proliferation and apoptosis, and the associated signal transduction pathways. We found that GHR and GH expression were higher in the prostate cancer cell lines, and that exogenous GH increased LNCaP cell proliferation, but had no effect on apoptosis. In contrast, autocrine GH overexpression reduced LNCaP cell proliferation and increased apoptosis. The distinct actions of exogenous and autocrine GH were accompanied by differences in the involvement of GHR-associated signal transduction pathways, and were paralleled by an alteration in the subcellular localization of GHR, in which autocrine GH appeared to sequester GHR in the Golgi and endoplasmic reticulum. This alteration of GHR trafficking may underlie a distinct mode of GH-mediated signaling associated with the effect of autocrine GH. These findings clarify the potential effects of GH on prostate cancer cell function, and indicate that the activity of autocrine GH may be distinct from that of endocrine GH in prostate cancer cells. Copyright © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  4. Dictyostelium cells bind a secreted autocrine factor that represses cell proliferation

    OpenAIRE

    Choe, Jonathan M; Bakthavatsalam, Deenadayalan; Phillips, Jonathan E; Gomer, Richard H

    2009-01-01

    Abstract Background Dictyostelium cells secrete the proteins AprA and CfaD. Cells lacking either AprA or CfaD proliferate faster than wild type, while AprA or CfaD overexpressor cells proliferate slowly, indicating that AprA and CfaD are autocrine factors that repress proliferation. CfaD interacts with AprA and requires the presence of AprA to slow proliferation. To determine if CfaD is necessary for the ability of AprA to slow proliferation, whether AprA binds to cells, and if so whether the...

  5. Autocrine/paracrine erythropoietin regulates migration and invasion potential and the stemness of human breast cancer cells

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    Liang, Ke; Qiu, Songbo; Lu, Yang; Fan, Zhen

    2014-01-01

    Recent studies suggest that erythropoietin (EPO) has pleiotropic effects in several cell types in addition to hematopoietic cells; however, the role of EPO-mediated cell signaling in nonhematopoietic cells, including in cancer cells, remains controversial. Here, we report our findings of autocrine/paracrine production of EPO by breast cancer cells and its functional significance. We detected a significant level of autocrine/paracrine EPO in the conditioned medium from the culture of SKBR3 breast cancer cells, particularly when the cells were cultured in hypoxia. Through knockdown of EPO and EPO receptor expression and experimental elevation of EPO receptor expression in SKBR3 breast cancer cells, we demonstrated novel roles of autocrine/paracrine EPO-mediated cell signaling in regulating migration and invasion potential and stemness-like properties of breast cancer cells. PMID:24100272

  6. Cell wall trapping of autocrine peptides for human G-protein-coupled receptors on the yeast cell surface.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jun Ishii

    Full Text Available G-protein-coupled receptors (GPCRs regulate a wide variety of physiological processes and are important pharmaceutical targets for drug discovery. Here, we describe a unique concept based on yeast cell-surface display technology to selectively track eligible peptides with agonistic activity for human GPCRs (Cell Wall Trapping of Autocrine Peptides (CWTrAP strategy. In our strategy, individual recombinant yeast cells are able to report autocrine-positive activity for human GPCRs by expressing a candidate peptide fused to an anchoring motif. Following expression and activation, yeast cells trap autocrine peptides onto their cell walls. Because captured peptides are incapable of diffusion, they have no impact on surrounding yeast cells that express the target human GPCR and non-signaling peptides. Therefore, individual yeast cells can assemble the autonomous signaling complex and allow single-cell screening of a yeast population. Our strategy may be applied to identify eligible peptides with agonistic activity for target human GPCRs.

  7. Interferon beta 1, an intermediate in the tumor necrosis factor alpha- induced increased MHC class I expression and an autocrine regulator of the constitutive MHC class I expression

    OpenAIRE

    1987-01-01

    In conclusion, our observations indicate that the constitutive MHC class I expression is regulated by autocrine production of IFN-beta 1. TNF-alpha acts as an enhancer of the autocrine production of IFN-beta 1, and consequently as an enhancer of the MHC class I expression and viral protection.

  8. SDF-1 is an Autocrine Insulin-Desensitizing Factor in Adipocytes.

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    Shin, Jihoon; Fukuhara, Atsunori; Onodera, Toshiharu; Kita, Shunbun; Yokoyama, Chieko; Otsuki, Michio; Shimomura, Iichiro

    2018-03-26

    Insulin desensitization occurs not only under obese diabetic condition, but also in the fasting state. However, little is known about the common secretory factor(s) that are regulated under these two insulin-desensitized conditions. Here, using database analysis, in vitro , and in vivo experiments, we identified SDF-1 as an insulin-desensitizing factor in adipocytes, overexpressed in both fasting and obese adipose tissues. Exogenously added SDF-1 induced ERK signal, which phosphorylated and degraded IRS-1 protein in adipocytes, decreasing insulin-mediated signaling and glucose uptake. In contrast, knockdown of endogenous SDF-1 or inhibition of its receptor in adipocytes markedly increased IRS-1 protein levels and enhanced insulin sensitivity, indicating the autocrine action of SDF-1. In agreement with these findings, adipocyte-specific ablation of SDF-1 enhanced insulin sensitivity in adipose tissues and whole body. These results point to a novel regulatory mechanism of insulin sensitivity mediated by adipose autocrine SDF-1 action, and provide a new insight into the process of insulin desensitization in adipocytes. © 2018 by the American Diabetes Association.

  9. Autocrine abscisic acid mediates the UV-B-induced inflammatory response in human granulocytes and keratinocytes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruzzone, Santina; Basile, Giovanna; Mannino, Elena; Sturla, Laura; Magnone, Mirko; Grozio, Alessia; Salis, Annalisa; Fresia, Chiara; Vigliarolo, Tiziana; Guida, Lucrezia; De Flora, Antonio; Tossi, Vanesa; Cassia, Raul; Lamattina, Lorenzo; Zocchi, Elena

    2012-06-01

    UV-B is an abiotic environmental stress in both plants and animals. Abscisic acid (ABA) is a phytohormone regulating fundamental physiological functions in plants, including response to abiotic stress. We previously demonstrated that ABA is an endogenous stress hormone also in animal cells. Here, we investigated whether autocrine ABA regulates the response to UV-B of human granulocytes and keratinocytes, the cells involved in UV-triggered skin inflammation. The intracellular ABA concentration increased in UV-B-exposed granulocytes and keratinocytes and ABA was released into the supernatant. The UV-B-induced production of NO and of reactive oxygen species (ROS), phagocytosis, and cell migration were strongly inhibited in granulocytes irradiated in the presence of a monoclonal antibody against ABA. Moreover, presence of the same antibody strongly inhibited release of NO, prostaglandin E2 (PGE(2)), and tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-α) by UV-B irradiated keratinocytes. Lanthionine synthetase C-like protein 2 (LANCL2) is required for the activation of the ABA signaling pathway in human granulocytes. Silencing of LANCL2 in human keratinocytes by siRNA was accompanied by abrogation of the UV-B-triggered release of PGE(2), TNF-α, and NO and ROS production. These results indicate that UV-B irradiation induces ABA release from human granulocytes and keratinocytes and that autocrine ABA stimulates cell functions involved in skin inflammation. Copyright © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  10. Endothelin as an autocrine factor in the regulation of parathyroid cells

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    Fujii, Yoshio; Moreira, J.E.; Aurbach, G.D.; Sakaguchi, K. (National Inst. of Health, Bethesda, MD (United States)); Orlando, C.; Maggi, M.; Brandi, M.L. (Univ. of Florence (Italy))

    1991-05-15

    Endothelin, originally purified from porcine aortic endothelial cells, is widely distributed in tissues and is recognized as a product of epithelial cells, glial cells and neurons in addition to endothelial cells. The authors found evidence by mRNA content and immunoreactivity that this peptide is synthesized in rat parathyroid epithelial cells (PT-r cells) and bovine parathyroid chief cells. The peptide synthesized by PT-r cells comigrated with synthetic endothelin 1 in reverse-phase HPLC and was diluted out in radioimmunoassay in parallel with the synthetic peptide. Bovine parathyroid endothelial cells (BPE-1 cells) did by PT-r cells and endothelin 1 peptide production were regulated by calcium. Shifts in extracellular calcium either from high to low concentrations or vice versa elicited similar evanescent increases in expression of mRNA with a peak at 1 h. Synthesis of the peptide in the medium appears to be continuously degraded or taken up by cells because its concentration in the medium showed a time course similar to that of mRNA expression. PT-r cells also bear a single class of receptors highly specific for endothelin 1, suggesting an autocrine regulation by endothelin 1 of the parathyroid. The facile regulation of endothelin concentrations in the medium by shifts in extracellular calcium concentration and possible autocrine regulation by endothelin 1 suggest that this peptide may mediate, at least in part, effects of calcium on the parathyroid system.

  11. The Cholinergic and Adrenergic Autocrine Signaling Pathway Mediates Immunomodulation in Oyster Crassostrea gigas

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    Zhaoqun Liu

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available It is becoming increasingly clear that neurotransmitters impose direct influence on regulation of the immune process. Recently, a simple but sophisticated neuroendocrine–immune (NEI system was identified in oyster, which modulated neural immune response via a “nervous-hemocyte”-mediated neuroendocrine immunomodulatory axis (NIA-like pathway. In the present study, the de novo synthesis of neurotransmitters and their immunomodulation in the hemocytes of oyster Crassostrea gigas were investigated to understand the autocrine/paracrine pathway independent of the nervous system. After hemocytes were exposed to lipopolysaccharide (LPS stimulation, acetylcholine (ACh, and norepinephrine (NE in the cell supernatants, both increased to a significantly higher level (2.71- and 2.40-fold, p < 0.05 comparing with that in the control group. The mRNA expression levels and protein activities of choline O-acetyltransferase and dopamine β-hydroxylase in hemocytes which were involved in the synthesis of ACh and NE were significantly elevated at 1 h after LPS stimulation, while the activities of acetylcholinesterase and monoamine oxidase, two enzymes essential in the metabolic inactivation of ACh and NE, were inhibited. These results demonstrated the existence of the sophisticated intracellular machinery for the generation, release and inactivation of ACh and NE in oyster hemocytes. Moreover, the hemocyte-derived neurotransmitters could in turn regulate the mRNA expressions of tumor necrosis factor (TNF genes, the activities of superoxide dismutase, catalase and lysosome, and hemocyte phagocytosis. The phagocytic activities of hemocytes, the mRNA expressions of TNF and the activities of key immune-related enzymes were significantly changed after the block of ACh and NE receptors with different kinds of antagonists, suggesting that autocrine/paracrine self-regulation was mediated by transmembrane receptors on hemocyte. The present study proved that

  12. XIAP gene expression and function is regulated by autocrine and paracrine TGF-β signaling

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    Van Themsche Céline

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background X-linked inhibitor of apoptosis protein (XIAP is often overexpressed in cancer cells, where it plays a key role in survival and also promotes invasiveness. To date however, the extracellular signals and intracellular pathways regulating its expression and activity remain incompletely understood. We have previously showed that exposure to each of the three TGF-β (transforming growth factor beta isoforms upregulates XIAP protein content in endometrial carcinoma cells in vitro. In the present study, we have investigated the clinical relevance of TGF-β isoforms in endometrial tumours and the mechanisms through which TGF-β isoforms regulate XIAP content in uterine cancer cells. Methods TGF-β isoforms immunoreactivity in clinical samples from endometrial tumours was assessed using immunofluorescence. Two model cancer cell lines (KLE endometrial carcinoma cells and HeLa cervical cancer cells and pharmacological inhibitors were used to investigate the signalling pathways regulating XIAP expression and activity in response to autocrine and paracrine TGF-β in cancer cell. Results We have found immunoreactivity for each TGF-β isoform in clinical samples from endometrial tumours, localizing to both stromal and epithelial/cancer cells. Blockade of autocrine TGF-β signaling in KLE endometrial carcinoma cells and HeLa cervical cancer cells reduced endogenous XIAP mRNA and protein levels. In addition, each TGF-β isoform upregulated XIAP gene expression when given exogenously, in a Smad/NF-κB dependent manner. This resulted in increased polyubiquitination of PTEN (phosphatase and tensin homolog on chromosome ten, a newly identified substrate for XIAP E3 ligase activity, and in a XIAP-dependent decrease of PTEN protein levels. Although each TGF-β isoform decreased PTEN content in a XIAP- and a Smad-dependent manner, decrease of PTEN levels in response to only one isoform, TGF-β3, was blocked by PI3-K inhibitor LY294002. Conclusions

  13. Acetylcholine release by human colon cancer cells mediates autocrine stimulation of cell proliferation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Kunrong; Samimi, Roxana; Xie, Guofeng; Shant, Jasleen; Drachenberg, Cinthia; Wade, Mark; Davis, Richard J; Nomikos, George; Raufman, Jean-Pierre

    2008-09-01

    Most colon cancers overexpress M3 muscarinic receptors (M3R), and post-M3R signaling stimulates human colon cancer cell proliferation. Acetylcholine (ACh), a muscarinic receptor ligand traditionally regarded as a neurotransmitter, may be produced by nonneuronal cells. We hypothesized that ACh release by human colon cancer cells results in autocrine stimulation of proliferation. H508 human colon cancer cells, which have robust M3R expression, were used to examine effects of muscarinic receptor antagonists, acetylcholinesterase inhibitors, and choline transport inhibitors on cell proliferation. A nonselective muscarinic receptor antagonist (atropine), a selective M3R antagonist (p-fluorohexahydro-sila-difenidol hydrochloride), and a choline transport inhibitor (hemicholinum-3) all inhibited unstimulated H508 colon cancer cell proliferation by approximately 40% (P<0.005). In contrast, two acetylcholinesterase inhibitors (eserine-hemisulfate and bis-9-amino-1,2,3,4-tetrahydroacridine) increased proliferation by 2.5- and 2-fold, respectively (P<0.005). By using quantitative real-time PCR, expression of choline acetyltransferase (ChAT), a critical enzyme for ACh synthesis, was identified in H508, WiDr, and Caco-2 colon cancer cells. By using high-performance liquid chromatography-electrochemical detection, released ACh was detected in H508 and Caco-2 cell culture media. Immunohistochemistry in surgical specimens revealed weak or no cytoplasmic staining for ChAT in normal colon enterocytes (n=25) whereas half of colon cancer specimens (n=24) exhibited moderate to strong staining (P<0.005). We conclude that ACh is an autocrine growth factor in colon cancer. Mechanisms that regulate colon epithelial cell production and release of ACh warrant further investigation.

  14. Autocrine VEGF and IL-8 Promote Migration via Src/Vav2/Rac1/PAK1 Signaling in Human Umbilical Vein Endothelial Cells.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ju, Li; Zhou, Zhiwen; Jiang, Bo; Lou, Yue; Guo, Xirong

    2017-01-01

    Pro-angiogenic factors VEGF and IL-8 play a major role in modulating the migratory potential of endothelial cells. The goal of this study was to investigate the effect of autocrine VEGF and IL-8 in the form of self-conditioned medium (CM) on human umbilical vein endothelial cells (HUVECs). Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) examined the automatic secretion of VEGF and IL-8 protein by HUVECs. Western blot, small interfering RNA (siRNA), pulldown and Transwell assays were used to explore the role and the mechanism of autocrine VEGF and IL-8 in migration of HUVECs. Neutralizing VEGF and IL-8 in CM significantly abrogated CM-induced migration of HUVECs. Autocrine VEGF and IL-8 increased Src phosphorylation, Rac1 activity and PAK1 phosphorylation in a time dependent manner. Additionally, blocking Rac1 activity with Rac1 siRNA largely abolished autocrine VEGF and IL-8-induced cell migration. Vav2 siRNA suppressed autocrine VEGF and IL-8-induced Rac1 activation and cell migration. Furthermore, blocking Src signaling with PP2, a specific inhibitor for Src, markedly prevented autocrine VEGF and IL-8-induced Vav2 and Rac1 activation as well as consequently cell migration. PAK1 siRNA also significantly abolished autocrine VEGF and IL-8-induced cell migration. We demonstrated for the first time that autocrine VEGF and IL-8 promoted endothelial cell migration via the Src/Vav2/Rac1/PAK1 signaling pathway. This finding reveals the molecular mechanism in the increase of endothelial cell migration induced by autocrine growth factors and cytokines, which is expected to provide a novel therapeutic target in vascular diseases. © 2017 The Author(s)Published by S. Karger AG, Basel.

  15. Positive feedback loop of autocrine BDNF from microglia causes prolonged microglia activation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xin; Zeng, Lulu; Yu, Tingting; Xu, Yongming; Pu, Shaofeng; Du, Dongping; Jiang, Wei

    2014-01-01

    Microglia, which represent the immune cells of the central nervous system (CNS), have long been a subject of study in CNS disease research. Substantial evidence indicates that microglial activation functions as a strong neuro-inflammatory response in neuropathic pain, promoting the release of pro-inflammatory cytokines, such as tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-α. In addition, activated microglia release brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF), which acts as a powerful cytokine. In this study, we performed a series of in vitro experiments to examine whether a positive autocrine feedback loop existed between microglia-derived BDNF and subsequent microglial activation as well as the mechanisms underlying this positive feedback loop. Because ATP is a classic inducer of microglial activation, firstly, we examined ATP-activated microglia in the present study. Secondly, we used TrkB/Fc, the BDNF sequester, to eliminate the effects of endogenous BDNF. ATP-stimulated microglia without BDNF was examined. Finally, we used exogenous BDNF to further determine whether BDNF could directly activate BV2 microglia. In all experiments, to quantify BV2 microglia activation, the protein levels of CD11b, a microglial activation marker, were measured by western blot. A Transwell migration assay was used to examine microglial migration. To assess the synthesis and release of proinflammatory cytokines, western blot was used to measure BDNF synthesis, and ELISA was used to quantify TNF-α release. In our present research, we have observed that ATP dramatically activates microglia, enhancing microglial migration, increasing the synthesis of BDNF and up-regulating the release of TNF-α. Microglial activation is inhibited following the sequestration of endogenous BDNF, resulting in impaired microglial migration and decreased TNF-α release. Furthermore, exogenous BDNF can also activate microglia to subsequently enhance migration and increase TNF-α release. Therefore, we suggest that microglial

  16. MCP-1 expressed by osteoclasts stimulates osteoclastogenesis in an autocrine/paracrine manner

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miyamoto, Kana; Ninomiya, Ken; Sonoda, Koh-Hei; Miyauchi, Yoshiteru; Hoshi, Hiroko; Iwasaki, Ryotaro; Miyamoto, Hiroya

    2009-01-01

    Monocyte chemoattractant protein-1 (MCP-1) is a chemokine that plays a critical role in the recruitment and activation of leukocytes. Here, we describe that multinuclear osteoclast formation was significantly inhibited in cells derived from MCP-1-deficient mice. MCP-1 has been implicated in the regulation of osteoclast cell-cell fusion; however defects of multinuclear osteoclast formation in the cells from mice deficient in DC-STAMP, a seven transmembrane receptor essential for osteoclast cell-cell fusion, was not rescued by recombinant MCP-1. The lack of MCP-1 in osteoclasts resulted in a down-regulation of DC-STAMP, NFATc1, and cathepsin K, all of which were highly expressed in normal osteoclasts, suggesting that osteoclast differentiation was inhibited in MCP-1-deficient cells. MCP-1 alone did not induce osteoclastogenesis, however, the inhibition of osteoclastogenesis in MCP-1-deficient cells was restored by addition of recombinant MCP-1, indicating that osteoclastogenesis was regulated in an autocrine/paracrine manner by MCP-1 under the stimulation of RANKL in osteoclasts.

  17. Inhibition of KRAS-driven tumorigenicity by interruption of an autocrine cytokine circuit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Zehua; Aref, Amir R; Cohoon, Travis J; Barbie, Thanh U; Imamura, Yu; Yang, Shenghong; Moody, Susan E; Shen, Rhine R; Schinzel, Anna C; Thai, Tran C; Reibel, Jacob B; Tamayo, Pablo; Godfrey, Jason T; Qian, Zhi Rong; Page, Asher N; Maciag, Karolina; Chan, Edmond M; Silkworth, Whitney; Labowsky, Mary T; Rozhansky, Lior; Mesirov, Jill P; Gillanders, William E; Ogino, Shuji; Hacohen, Nir; Gaudet, Suzanne; Eck, Michael J; Engelman, Jeffrey A; Corcoran, Ryan B; Wong, Kwok-Kin; Hahn, William C; Barbie, David A

    2014-04-01

    Although the roles of mitogen-activated protein kinase (MAPK) and phosphoinositide 3-kinase (PI3K) signaling in KRAS-driven tumorigenesis are well established, KRAS activates additional pathways required for tumor maintenance, the inhibition of which are likely to be necessary for effective KRAS-directed therapy. Here, we show that the IκB kinase (IKK)-related kinases Tank-binding kinase-1 (TBK1) and IKKε promote KRAS-driven tumorigenesis by regulating autocrine CCL5 and interleukin (IL)-6 and identify CYT387 as a potent JAK/TBK1/IKKε inhibitor. CYT387 treatment ablates RAS-associated cytokine signaling and impairs Kras-driven murine lung cancer growth. Combined CYT387 treatment and MAPK pathway inhibition induces regression of aggressive murine lung adenocarcinomas driven by Kras mutation and p53 loss. These observations reveal that TBK1/IKKε promote tumor survival by activating CCL5 and IL-6 and identify concurrent inhibition of TBK1/IKKε, Janus-activated kinase (JAK), and MEK signaling as an effective approach to inhibit the actions of oncogenic KRAS.

  18. An autocrine Wnt5a-Ror signaling loop mediates sympathetic target innervation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ryu, Yun Kyoung; Collins, Sarah Ellen; Ho, Hsin-Yi Henry; Zhao, Haiqing; Kuruvilla, Rejji

    2013-05-01

    During nervous system development, axon branching at nerve terminals is an essential step in the formation of functional connections between neurons and target cells. It is known that target tissues exert control of terminal arborization through secretion of trophic factors. However, whether the in-growing axons themselves produce diffusible cues to instruct target innervation remains unclear. Here, we use conditional mutant mice to show that Wnt5a derived from sympathetic neurons is required for their target innervation in vivo. Conditional deletion of Wnt5a resulted in specific deficits in the extension and arborization of sympathetic fibers in their final target fields, while no defects were observed in the overall tissue patterning, proliferation, migration or differentiation of neuronal progenitors. Using compartmentalized neuronal cultures, we further demonstrate that the Ror receptor tyrosine kinases are required locally in sympathetic axons to mediate Wnt5a-dependent branching. Thus, our study suggests an autocrine Wnt5a-Ror signaling pathway that directs sympathetic axon branching during target innervation. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Cyclic mechanical deformation stimulates human lung fibroblast proliferation and autocrine growth factor activity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bishop, J E; Mitchell, J J; Absher, P M; Baldor, L; Geller, H A; Woodcock-Mitchell, J; Hamblin, M J; Vacek, P; Low, R B

    1993-08-01

    Cellular hypertrophy and hyperplasia and increased extracellular matrix deposition are features of tissue hypertrophy resulting from increased work load. It is known, for example, that mechanical forces play a critical role in lung development, cardiovascular remodeling following pressure overload, and skeletal muscle growth. The mechanisms involved in these processes, however, remain unclear. Here we examined the effect of mechanical deformation on fibroblast function in vitro. IMR-90 human fetal lung fibroblasts grown on collagen-coated silastic membranes were subjected to cyclical mechanical deformation (10% increase in culture surface area; 1 Hz) for up to 5 days. Cell number was increased by 39% after 2 days of deformation (1.43 +/- .01 x 10(5) cells/membrane compared with control, 1.03 +/- 0.02 x 10(5) cells; mean +/- SEM; P < 0.02) increasing to 163% above control by 4 days (2.16 +/- 0.16 x 10(5) cells compared with 0.82 +/- 0.03 x 10(5) cells; P < 0.001). The medium from mechanically deformed cells was mitogenic for IMR-90 cells, with maximal activity in the medium from cells mechanically deformed for 2 days (stimulating cell replication by 35% compared with media control; P < 0.002). These data suggest that mechanical deformation stimulates human lung fibroblast replication and that this effect is mediated by the release of autocrine growth factors.

  20. Dendritic cells activated by double-stranded RNA induce arthritis via autocrine type I IFN signaling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Narendra, Sudeep Chenna; Chalise, Jaya Prakash; Höök, Nina; Magnusson, Mattias

    2014-04-01

    Viral dsRNA can be found at the site of inflammation in RA patients, and intra-articular injection of dsRNA induces arthritis by activating type I IFN signaling in mice. Further, DCs, a major source of IFN-α, can be found in the synovium of RA patients. We therefore determined the occurrence of DCs in dsRNA-induced arthritis and their ability to induce arthritis. Here, we show, by immunohistochemistry, that cells expressing the pan-DC marker CD11c and the pDC marker 120G8 are present in the inflamed synovium in dsRNA-induced arthritis. Flt3L-generated and splenic DCs preactivated with dsRNA before intra-articular injection, but not mock-stimulated cells, clearly induced arthritis. Induction of arthritis was dependent on type I IFN signaling in the donor DCs, whereas IFNAR expression in the recipient was not required. Sorting of the Flt3L-DC population into cDCs (CD11c(+), PDCA-1(-)) and pDCs (CD11c(+), PDCA-1(+)) revealed that both subtypes were arthritogenic and produced type I IFN if treated with dsRNA. Taken together, these results demonstrate that viral nucleic acids can elicit arthritis by activating type I IFN signaling in DCs. Once triggered, autocrine type I IFN signaling in dsRNA-activated DCs is sufficient to propagate arthritis.

  1. Toxoplasma gondii exposes phosphatidylserine inducing a TGF-β1 autocrine effect orchestrating macrophage evasion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seabra, Sergio H.; Souza, Wanderley de; Matta, Renato A. da

    2004-01-01

    Toxoplasmosis is a worldwide disease caused by Toxoplasma gondii. Activated macrophages control T. gondii growth by nitric oxide (NO) production. However, T. gondii active invasion inhibits NO production, allowing parasite persistence. Here we show that the mechanism used by T. gondii to inhibit NO production persisting in activated macrophages depends on phosphatidylserine (PS) exposure. Masking PS with annexin-V on parasites or activated macrophages abolished NO production inhibition and parasite persistence. NO production inhibition depended on a transforming growth factor-β 1 (TGF-β 1 ) autocrine effect confirmed by the expression of Smad 2 and 3 in infected macrophages. TGF-β 1 led to inducible nitric oxide synthase (iNOS) degradation, actin filament (F-actin) depolymerization, and lack of nuclear factor-κB (NF-κB) in the nucleus. All these features were reverted by TGF-β 1 neutralizing antibody treatment. Thus, T. gondii mimics the evasion mechanism used by Leishmania amazonensis and also the anti-inflammatory response evoked by apoptotic cells

  2. Autocrine abscisic acid plays a key role in quartz-induced macrophage activation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magnone, Mirko; Sturla, Laura; Jacchetti, Emanuela; Scarfì, Sonia; Bruzzone, Santina; Usai, Cesare; Guida, Lucrezia; Salis, Annalisa; Damonte, Gianluca; De Flora, Antonio; Zocchi, Elena

    2012-03-01

    Inhalation of quartz induces silicosis, a lung disease where alveolar macrophages release inflammatory mediators, including prostaglandin-E(2) (PGE(2)) and tumor necrosis factor α (TNF-α). Here we report the pivotal role of abscisic acid (ABA), a recently discovered human inflammatory hormone, in silica-induced activation of murine RAW264.7 macrophages and of rat alveolar macrophages (AMs). Stimulation of both RAW264.7 cells and AMs with quartz induced a significant increase of ABA release (5- and 10-fold, respectively), compared to untreated cells. In RAW264.7 cells, autocrine ABA released after quartz stimulation sequentially activates the plasma membrane receptor LANCL2 and NADPH oxidase, generating a Ca(2+) influx resulting in NFκ B nuclear translocation and PGE(2) and TNF-α release (3-, 2-, and 3.5-fold increase, respectively, compared to control, unstimulated cells). Quartz-stimulated RAW264.7 cells silenced for LANCL2 or preincubated with a monoclonal antibody against ABA show an almost complete inhibition of NFκ B nuclear translocation and PGE(2) and TNF-α release compared to controls electroporated with a scramble oligonucleotide or preincubated with an unrelated antibody. AMs showed similar early and late ABA-induced responses as RAW264.7 cells. These findings identify ABA and LANCL2 as key mediators in quartz-induced inflammation, providing possible new targets for antisilicotic therapy.

  3. Autocrine release of angiopoietin-2 mediates cerebrovascular disintegration in Moyamoya disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blecharz, Kinga G; Frey, Dietmar; Schenkel, Tobias; Prinz, Vincent; Bedini, Gloria; Krug, Susanne M; Czabanka, Marcus; Wagner, Josephin; Fromm, Michael; Bersano, Anna; Vajkoczy, Peter

    2017-04-01

    Moyamoya disease is a rare steno-occlusive cerebrovascular disorder often resulting in hemorrhagic and ischemic strokes. Although sharing the same ischemic stimulus with atherosclerotic cerebrovascular disease, Moyamoya disease is characterized by a highly instable cerebrovascular system which is prone to rupture due to pathological neovascularization. To understand the molecular mechanisms underlying this instability, angiopoietin-2 gene expression was analyzed in middle cerebral artery lesions obtained from Moyamoya disease and atherosclerotic cerebrovascular disease patients. Angiopoietin-2 was significantly up-regulated in Moyamoya vessels, while serum concentrations of soluble angiopoietins were not changed. For further evaluations, cerebral endothelial cells incubated with serum from these patients in vitro were applied. In contrast to atherosclerotic cerebrovascular disease serum, Moyamoya disease serum induced an angiopoietin-2 overexpression and secretion, accompanied by loss of endothelial integrity. These effects were absent or inverse in endothelial cells of non-brain origin suggesting brain endothelium specificity. The destabilizing effects on brain endothelial cells to Moyamoya disease serum were partially suppressed by the inhibition of angiopoietin-2. Our findings define brain endothelial cells as the potential source of vessel-destabilizing factors inducing the high plasticity state and disintegration in Moyamoya disease in an autocrine manner. We also provide new insights into Moyamoya disease pathophysiology that may be helpful for preventive treatment strategies in future.

  4. HER2 overexpression elicits a proinflammatory IL-6 autocrine signaling loop that is critical for tumorigenesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartman, Zachary C; Yang, Xiao-Yi; Glass, Oliver; Lei, Gangjun; Osada, Takuya; Dave, Sandeep S; Morse, Michael A; Clay, Timothy M; Lyerly, Herbert K

    2011-07-01

    HER2 overexpression occurs in approximately 25% of breast cancers, where it correlates with poor prognosis. Likewise, systemic inflammation in breast cancer correlates with poor prognosis, although the process is not understood. In this study, we explored the relationship between HER2 and inflammation, comparing the effects of overexpressing wild-type or mutated inactive forms of HER2 in primary human breast cells. Wild-type HER2 elicited a profound transcriptional inflammatory profile, including marked elevation of interleukin-6 (IL-6) expression, which we established to be a critical determinant of HER2 oncogenesis. Mechanistic investigations revealed that IL-6 secretion induced by HER2 overexpression activated Stat3 and altered gene expression, enforcing an autocrine loop of IL-6/Stat3 expression. Both mouse and human in vivo models of HER2-amplified breast carcinoma relied critically on this HER2-IL-6-Stat3 signaling pathway. Our studies offer the first direct evidence linking HER2 to a systemic inflammatory mechanism that orchestrates HER2-mediated tumor growth. We suggest that the HER2-IL-6-STAT3 signaling axis we have defined in breast cancer could prompt new therapeutic or prevention strategies for treatment of HER2-amplified cancers. ©2011 AACR.

  5. Interleukin-19 acts as a negative autocrine regulator of activated microglia.

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    Hiroshi Horiuchi

    Full Text Available Activated microglia can exert either neurotoxic or neuroprotective effects, and they play pivotal roles in the pathogenesis and progression of various neurological diseases. In this study, we used cDNA microarrays to show that interleukin-19 (IL-19, an IL-10 family cytokine, is markedly upregulated in activated microglia. Furthermore, we found that microglia are the only cells in the nervous system that express the IL-19 receptor, a heterodimer of the IL-20Rα and IL-20Rβ subunits. IL-19 deficiency increased the production of such pro-inflammatory cytokines as IL-6 and tumor necrosis factor-α in activated microglia, and IL-19 treatment suppressed this effect. Moreover, in a mouse model of Alzheimer's disease, we observed upregulation of IL-19 in affected areas in association with disease progression. Our findings demonstrate that IL-19 is an anti-inflammatory cytokine, produced by activated microglia, that acts negatively on microglia in an autocrine manner. Thus, microglia may self-limit their inflammatory response by producing the negative regulator IL-19.

  6. Autocrine regulation of cell proliferation by estrogen receptor-alpha in estrogen receptor-alpha-positive breast cancer cell lines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pan Zhongzong

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Estrogen receptor-α (ERα is essential for mammary gland development and is a major oncogene in breast cancer. Since ERα is not colocalized with the cell proliferation marker Ki-67 in the normal mammary glands and the majority of primary breast tumors, it is generally believed that paracrine regulation is involved in ERα mediated cell proliferation. In the paracrine model, ERα-positive cells don't proliferate but will release some paracrine growth factors to stimulate the neighboring cells to proliferate. In a subpopulation of cancer cells in some primary breast tumors, however, ERα does colocalize with the cell proliferation marker Ki-67, suggesting an autocrine regulation by ERα in some primary breast tumors. Methods Colocalization of ERα with Ki-67 in ERα-positive breast cancer cell lines (MCF-7, T47D, and ZR75-1 was evaluated by immunofluorescent staining. Cell cycle phase dependent expression of ERα was determined by co-immunofluorescent staining of ERα and the major cyclins (D, E, A, B, and by flow cytometry analysis of ERαhigh cells. To further confirm the autocrine action of ERα, MCF-7 cells were growth arrested by ICI182780 treatment, followed by treatment with EGFR inhibitor, before estrogen stimulation and analyses for colocalization of Ki-67 and ERα and cell cycle progression. Results Colocalization of ERα with Ki-67 was present in all three ERα-positive breast cancer cell lines. Unlike that in the normal mammary glands and the majority of primary breast tumors, ERα is highly expressed throughout the cell cycle in MCF-7 cells. Without E2 stimulation, MCF-7 cells released from ICI182780 treatment remain at G1 phase. E2 stimulation of ICI182780 treated cells, however, promotes the expression and colocalization of ERα and Ki-67 as well as the cell cycle progressing through the S and G2/M phases. Inhibition of EGFR signaling does not inhibit the autocrine action of ERα. Conclusion Our data indicate

  7. Autocrine hGH stimulates oncogenicity, epithelial-mesenchymal transition and cancer stem cell-like behavior in human colorectal carcinoma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jing-Jing; Chong, Qing-Yun; Sun, Xin-Bao; You, Ming-Liang; Pandey, Vijay; Chen, Yi-Jun; Zhuang, Qiu-Shi; Liu, Dong-Xu; Ma, Lan; Wu, Zheng-Sheng; Zhu, Tao; Lobie, Peter E

    2017-11-28

    Tumor derived human growth hormone (hGH) has been implicated in cancer development and progression. However, the specific functional role of autocrine/paracrine hGH in colorectal cancer (CRC) remains largely to be determined. Herein, we demonstrated a crucial oncogenic role of autocrine hGH in CRC progression. Elevated hGH expression was detected in CRC compared to normal colorectal tissue, and hGH expression in CRC was positively associated with tumor size and lymph node metastasis. Forced expression of hGH stimulated cell proliferation, survival, oncogenicity and epithelial to mesenchymal transition (EMT) of CRC cells, and promoted xenograft growth and local invasion in vivo . Autocrine hGH expression in CRC cells stimulated the activation of the ERK1/2 pathway, which in turn resulted in increased transcription of the mesenchymal marker FIBRONECTIN 1 and transcriptional repression of the epithelial marker E-CADHERIN. The autocrine hGH-stimulated increase in CRC cell proliferation, cell survival and EMT was abrogated upon ERK1/2 inhibition. Furthermore, autocrine hGH-stimulated CRC cell migration and invasion was dependent on the ERK1/2-mediated increase in FIBRONECTIN 1 expression and decrease in E-CADHERIN expression. Forced expression of hGH also enhanced CSC-like behavior of CRC cells, as characterized by increased colonosphere formation, ALDH-positive population and CSC marker expression. Autocrine hGH-enhanced cancer stem cell (CSC)-like behavior in CRC cells was also observed to be E-CADHERIN-dependent. Thus, autocrine hGH plays a critical role in CRC progression, and inhibition of hGH could be a promising targeted therapeutic approach to limit disease progression in metastatic CRC patients.

  8. The effects of autocrine human growth hormone (hGH) on human mammary carcinoma cell behavior are mediated via the hGH receptor.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaulsay, K K; Zhu, T; Bennett, W; Lee, K O; Lobie, P E

    2001-02-01

    The human GH (hGH) antagonist B2036 combines a single amino acid substitution impairing receptor binding site 2 (G120K) with eight additional amino acid substitutions that improve binding site 1 affinity. B2036 does not bind, activate, or antagonize the human PRL receptor and therefore is suitable to determine cellular effects mediated specifically through the hGH receptor. We have used this hGH receptor specific antagonist in MCF-7 cells stably transfected with either the hGH gene (MCF-hGH) or a translation deficient hGH gene (MCF-MUT) to determine whether the effects of autocrine hGH on mammary carcinoma cell behavior are mediated via the hGH receptor. Enhanced JAK2 tyrosine phosphorylation observed in MCF-hGH cells compared with MCF-MUT cells is abrogated by B2036 as is the autocrine hGH stimulated increase in total cell number and DNA synthesis. Interestingly, autocrine hGH functions as a potent inhibitor of apoptosis induced by serum withdrawal compared with exogenously added hGH, and the protection against apoptosis afforded by autocrine hGH is abrogated by B2036. B2036 also inhibited autocrine hGH stimulated transcriptional activation mediated by either STAT5, CHOP (p38 MAP kinase specific) or Elk-1 (p44/42 MAP kinase specific). Finally, B2036 inhibited the autocrine hGH-dependent enhancement of the rate of mammary carcinoma cell spreading on a collagen matrix. Thus, the effects of autocrine hGH on human mammary carcinoma cell behavior are mediated via the hGH receptor.

  9. Dictyostelium cells bind a secreted autocrine factor that represses cell proliferation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Phillips Jonathan E

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Dictyostelium cells secrete the proteins AprA and CfaD. Cells lacking either AprA or CfaD proliferate faster than wild type, while AprA or CfaD overexpressor cells proliferate slowly, indicating that AprA and CfaD are autocrine factors that repress proliferation. CfaD interacts with AprA and requires the presence of AprA to slow proliferation. To determine if CfaD is necessary for the ability of AprA to slow proliferation, whether AprA binds to cells, and if so whether the binding requires the presence of CfaD, we examined the binding and effect on proliferation of recombinant AprA. Results We find that the extracellular accumulation of AprA increases with cell density and reaches a concentration of 0.3 μg/ml near a stationary cell density. When added to wild-type or aprA- cells, recombinant AprA (rAprA significantly slows proliferation at 0.1 μg/ml and higher concentrations. From 4 to 64 μg/ml, the effect of rAprA is at a plateau, slowing but not stopping proliferation. The proliferation-inhibiting activity of rAprA is roughly the same as that of native AprA in conditioned growth medium. Proliferating aprA- cells show saturable binding of rAprA to 92,000 ± 11,000 cell-surface receptors with a KD of 0.03 ± 0.02 μg/ml. There appears to be one class of binding site, and no apparent cooperativity. Native AprA inhibits the binding of rAprA to aprA- cells with a Ki of 0.03 μg/ml, suggesting that the binding kinetics of rAprA are similar to those of native AprA. The proliferation of cells lacking CrlA, a cAMP receptor-like protein, or cells lacking CfaD are not affected by rAprA. Surprisingly, both cell types still bind rAprA. Conclusion Together, the data suggest that AprA functions as an autocrine proliferation-inhibiting factor by binding to cell surface receptors. Although AprA requires CfaD for activity, it does not require CfaD to bind to cells, suggesting the possibility that cells have an AprA receptor and a Cfa

  10. Dictyostelium cells bind a secreted autocrine factor that represses cell proliferation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choe, Jonathan M; Bakthavatsalam, Deenadayalan; Phillips, Jonathan E; Gomer, Richard H

    2009-02-02

    Dictyostelium cells secrete the proteins AprA and CfaD. Cells lacking either AprA or CfaD proliferate faster than wild type, while AprA or CfaD overexpressor cells proliferate slowly, indicating that AprA and CfaD are autocrine factors that repress proliferation. CfaD interacts with AprA and requires the presence of AprA to slow proliferation. To determine if CfaD is necessary for the ability of AprA to slow proliferation, whether AprA binds to cells, and if so whether the binding requires the presence of CfaD, we examined the binding and effect on proliferation of recombinant AprA. We find that the extracellular accumulation of AprA increases with cell density and reaches a concentration of 0.3 microg/ml near a stationary cell density. When added to wild-type or aprA- cells, recombinant AprA (rAprA) significantly slows proliferation at 0.1 microg/ml and higher concentrations. From 4 to 64 microg/ml, the effect of rAprA is at a plateau, slowing but not stopping proliferation. The proliferation-inhibiting activity of rAprA is roughly the same as that of native AprA in conditioned growth medium. Proliferating aprA- cells show saturable binding of rAprA to 92,000 +/- 11,000 cell-surface receptors with a KD of 0.03 +/- 0.02 microg/ml. There appears to be one class of binding site, and no apparent cooperativity. Native AprA inhibits the binding of rAprA to aprA- cells with a Ki of 0.03 mug/ml, suggesting that the binding kinetics of rAprA are similar to those of native AprA. The proliferation of cells lacking CrlA, a cAMP receptor-like protein, or cells lacking CfaD are not affected by rAprA. Surprisingly, both cell types still bind rAprA. Together, the data suggest that AprA functions as an autocrine proliferation-inhibiting factor by binding to cell surface receptors. Although AprA requires CfaD for activity, it does not require CfaD to bind to cells, suggesting the possibility that cells have an AprA receptor and a CfaD receptor, and activation of both receptors is

  11. Stimulated human mast cells secrete mitochondrial components that have autocrine and paracrine inflammatory actions.

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    Bodi Zhang

    Full Text Available Mast cells are hematopoietically-derived tissue immune cells that participate in acquired and innate immunity, as well as in inflammation through release of many chemokines and cytokines, especially in response to the pro-inflammatory peptide substance P (SP. Inflammation is critical in the pathogenesis of many diseases, but the trigger(s is often unknown. We investigated if mast cell stimulation leads to secretion of mitochondrial components and whether these could elicit autocrine and/or paracrine inflammatory effects. Here we show that human LAD2 mast cells stimulated by IgE/anti-IgE or by the SP led to secretion of mitochondrial particles, mitochondrial (mt mtDNA and ATP without cell death. Mitochondria purified from LAD2 cells and, when mitochondria added to mast cells trigger degranulation and release of histamine, PGD(2, IL-8, TNF, and IL-1β. This stimulatory effect is partially inhibited by an ATP receptor antagonist and by DNAse. These results suggest that the mitochondrial protein fraction may also contribute. Purified mitochondria also stimulate IL-8 and vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF release from cultured human keratinocytes, and VEGF release from primary human microvascular endothelial cells. In order to investigate if mitochondrial components could be secreted in vivo, we injected rats intraperiotoneally (ip with compound 48/80, which mimicks the action of SP. Peritoneal mast cells degranulated and mitochondrial particles were documented by transimission electron microscopy outside the cells. We also wished to investigate if mitochondrial components secreted locally could reach the systemic circulation. Administration ip of mtDNA isolated from LAD2 cells in rats was detected in their serum within 4 hr, indicating that extravascular mtDNA could enter the systemic circulation. Secretion of mitochondrial components from stimulated live mast cells may act as "autopathogens" contributing to the pathogenesis of inflammatory

  12. Autocrine prostaglandin E2 signaling promotes tumor cell survival and proliferation in childhood neuroblastoma.

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    Agnes Rasmuson

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Prostaglandin E(2 (PGE(2 is an important mediator in tumor-promoting inflammation. High expression of cyclooxygenase-2 (COX-2 has been detected in the embryonic childhood tumor neuroblastoma, and treatment with COX inhibitors significantly reduces tumor growth. Here, we have investigated the significance of a high COX-2 expression in neuroblastoma by analysis of PGE(2 production, the expression pattern and localization of PGE(2 receptors and intracellular signal transduction pathways activated by PGE(2. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A high expression of the PGE(2 receptors, EP1, EP2, EP3 and EP4 in primary neuroblastomas, independent of biological and clinical characteristics, was detected using immunohistochemistry. In addition, mRNA and protein corresponding to each of the receptors were detected in neuroblastoma cell lines. Immunofluorescent staining revealed localization of the receptors to the cellular membrane, in the cytoplasm, and in the nuclear compartment. Neuroblastoma cells produced PGE(2 and stimulation of serum-starved neuroblastoma cells with PGE(2 increased the intracellular concentration of calcium and cyclic AMP with subsequent phosphorylation of Akt. Addition of 16,16-dimethyl PGE(2 (dmPGE(2 increased cell viability in a time, dose- and cell line-dependent manner. Treatment of neuroblastoma cells with a COX-2 inhibitor resulted in a diminished cell growth and viability that was reversed by the addition of dmPGE(2. Similarly, PGE(2 receptor antagonists caused a decrease in neuroblastoma cell viability in a dose-dependent manner. CONCLUSIONS: These findings demonstrate that PGE(2 acts as an autocrine and/or paracrine survival factor for neuroblastoma cells. Hence, specific targeting of PGE(2 signaling provides a novel strategy for the treatment of childhood neuroblastoma through the inhibition of important mediators of tumor-promoting inflammation.

  13. Interleukin 6 promotes endometrial cancer growth through an autocrine feedback loop involving ERK–NF-κB signaling pathway

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Che, Qi; Liu, Bin-Ya; Wang, Fang-Yuan; He, Yin-Yan; Lu, Wen; Liao, Yun [Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Shanghai First People’s Hospital Affiliated to Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai (China); Gu, Wei, E-mail: krisgu70@163.com [Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, International Peace Maternity and Child Health Hospital Affiliated to Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai (China); Wan, Xiao-Ping, E-mail: wanxp@sjtu.edu.cn [Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Shanghai First Maternity and Infant Hospital Affiliated to Tong Ji University, Shanghai (China)

    2014-03-28

    Highlights: • IL-6 could promote endometrial cancer cells proliferation. • IL-6 promotes its own production through an autocrine feedback loop. • ERK and NF-κB pathway inhibitors inhibit IL-6 production and tumor growth. • IL-6 secretion relies on the activation of ERK–NF-κB pathway axis. • An orthotopic nude endometrial carcinoma model confirms the effect of IL-6. - Abstract: Interleukin (IL)-6 as an inflammation factor, has been proved to promote cancer proliferation in several human cancers. However, its role in endometrial cancer has not been studied clearly. Previously, we demonstrated that IL-6 promoted endometrial cancer progression through local estrogen biosynthesis. In this study, we proved that IL-6 could directly stimulate endometrial cancer cells proliferation and an autocrine feedback loop increased its production even after the withdrawal of IL-6 from the medium. Next, we analyzed the mechanism underlying IL-6 production in the feedback loop and found that its production and IL-6-stimulated cell proliferation were effectively blocked by pharmacologic inhibitors of nuclear factor-kappa B (NF-κB) and extra-cellular signal-regulated kinase (ERK). Importantly, activation of ERK was upstream of the NF-κB pathways, revealing the hierarchy of this event. Finally, we used an orthotopic nude endometrial carcinoma model to confirm the effects of IL-6 on the tumor progression. Taken together, these data indicate that IL-6 promotes endometrial carcinoma growth through an expanded autocrine regulatory loop and implicate the ERK–NF-κB pathway as a critical mediator of IL-6 production, implying IL-6 to be an important therapeutic target in endometrial carcinoma.

  14. The ROCO Kinase QkgA Is Necessary for Proliferation Inhibition by Autocrine Signals in Dictyostelium discoideum▿

    OpenAIRE

    Phillips, Jonathan E.; Gomer, Richard H.

    2010-01-01

    AprA and CfaD are secreted proteins that function as autocrine signals to inhibit cell proliferation in Dictyostelium discoideum. Cells lacking AprA or CfaD proliferate rapidly, and adding AprA or CfaD to cells slows proliferation. Cells lacking the ROCO kinase QkgA proliferate rapidly, with a doubling time 83% of that of the wild type, and overexpression of a QkgA-green fluorescent protein (GFP) fusion protein slows cell proliferation. We found that qkgA− cells accumulate normal levels of ex...

  15. An Autocrine Proliferation Repressor Regulates Dictyostelium discoideum Proliferation and Chemorepulsion Using the G Protein-Coupled Receptor GrlH

    OpenAIRE

    Yu Tang; Yuantai Wu; Sarah E. Herlihy; Francisco J. Brito-Aleman; Jose H. Ting; Chris Janetopoulos; Richard H. Gomer; Scott D. Emr

    2018-01-01

    In eukaryotic microbes, little is known about signals that inhibit the proliferation of the cells that secrete the signal, and little is known about signals (chemorepellents) that cause cells to move away from the source of the signal. Autocrine proliferation repressor protein A (AprA) is a protein secreted by the eukaryotic microbe Dictyostelium discoideum. AprA is a chemorepellent for and inhibits the proliferation of D. discoideum. We previously found that cells sense AprA using G proteins...

  16. Age-related autocrine diabetogenic effects of transgenic resistin in spontaneously hypertensive rats: gene expression profile analysis

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Pravenec, Michal; Zídek, Václav; Landa, Vladimír; Šimáková, Miroslava; Mlejnek, Petr; Šilhavý, J.; Maxová, M.; Kazdová, L.; Seidman, J. G.; Seidman, Ch. E.; Eminaga, S.; Gorham, J.; Wang, J.; Kurtz, T. W.

    2011-01-01

    Roč. 43, č. 7 (2011), s. 372-379 ISSN 1094-8341 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) ME08006; GA MŠk(CZ) 1M0510; GA AV ČR(CZ) IAA500110805; GA MZd(CZ) NS9759 Grant - others:Fondation Leducq(FR) 06CVD03 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z50110509 Keywords : transgenic rat * adipose tissue * insulin resistance * autocrine effects Subject RIV: FB - Endocrinology, Diabetology, Metabolism, Nutrition Impact factor: 2.735, year: 2011

  17. Autocrine prolactin induced by the Pten–Akt pathway is required for lactation initiation and provides a direct link between the Akt and Stat5 pathways

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Chien-Chung; Stairs, Douglas B.; Boxer, Robert B.; Belka, George K.; Horseman, Nelson D.; Alvarez, James V.; Chodosh, Lewis A.

    2012-01-01

    Extrapituitary prolactin (Prl) is produced in humans and rodents; however, little is known about its in vivo regulation or physiological function. We now report that autocrine prolactin is required for terminal mammary epithelial differentiation during pregnancy and that its production is regulated by the Pten–PI3K–Akt pathway. Conditional activation of the PI3K–Akt pathway in the mammary glands of virgin mice by either Akt1 expression or Pten deletion rapidly induced terminal mammary epithelial differentiation accompanied by the synthesis of milk despite the absence of lobuloalveolar development. Surprisingly, we found that mammary differentiation was due to the PI3K–Akt-dependent synthesis and secretion of autocrine prolactin and downstream activation of the prolactin receptor (Prlr)–Jak–Stat5 pathway. Consistent with this, Akt-induced mammary differentiation was abrogated in Prl−/−, Prlr−/−, and Stat5−/− mice. Furthermore, cells treated with conditioned medium from mammary glands in which Akt had been activated underwent rapid Stat5 phosphorylation in a manner that was blocked by inhibition of Jak2, treatment with an anti-Prl antibody, or deletion of the prolactin gene. Demonstrating a physiological requirement for autocrine prolactin, mammary glands from lactation-defective Akt1−/−;Akt2+/− mice failed to express autocrine prolactin or activate Stat5 during late pregnancy despite normal levels of circulating serum prolactin and pituitary prolactin production. Our findings reveal that PI3K–Akt pathway activation is necessary and sufficient to induce autocrine prolactin production in the mammary gland, Stat5 activation, and terminal mammary epithelial differentiation, even in the absence of the normal developmental program that prepares the mammary gland for lactation. Together, these findings identify a function for autocrine prolactin during normal development and demonstrate its endogenous regulation by the PI3K–Akt pathway

  18. Tumor necrosis factor α functions in an autocrine manner in the induction of human immunodeficiency virus expression

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Poli, G.; Kinter, A.; Justement, J.S.; Kehrl, J.H.; Bressler, P.; Stanley, S.; Fauci, A.S.

    1990-01-01

    Tumor necrosis factor α (TNF-α) is an immunoregulatory cytokine capable of inducing viral expression in cells chronically infected with the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), such as the promonocytic line U1 and the T-lymphocytic line ACH-2. In the present study, the authors demonstrate an autocrine mechanism of TNF-α-mediated HIV induction. Stimulation of U1 and ACH-2 cells with phorbol 12-myristate 13-acetate (PMA) resulted in the induction of TNF-α mRNA and the secretion of TNF-α. Of note is the fact that anti-TNF-α antibodies significantly suppressed the expression of HIV in PMA-stimulated U1 and ACH-2 cells. Furthermore, anti-TNF-α antibodies also suppressed both the constitutive and inducible levels of viral expression in the chronically infected promonocytic clone U33.3. This study illustrates the interrelationship between the regulation of HIV expression and normal immunoregulatory mechanisms in that virus expression, both constitutive and induced, can be modulated by an autocrine pathway involving TNF-α, a cytokine involved in the complex network of regulation of the normal human immune response

  19. Autocrine/Paracrine Human Growth Hormone-stimulated MicroRNA 96-182-183 Cluster Promotes Epithelial-Mesenchymal Transition and Invasion in Breast Cancer*

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Weijie; Qian, Pengxu; Zhang, Xiao; Zhang, Min; Wang, Hong; Wu, Mingming; Kong, Xiangjun; Tan, Sheng; Ding, Keshuo; Perry, Jo K.; Wu, Zhengsheng; Cao, Yuan; Lobie, Peter E.; Zhu, Tao

    2015-01-01

    Human growth hormone (hGH) plays critical roles in pubertal mammary gland growth, development, and sexual maturation. Accumulated studies have reported that autocrine/paracrine hGH is an orthotopically expressed oncoprotein that promotes normal mammary epithelial cell oncogenic transformation. Autocrine/paracrine hGH has also been reported to promote mammary epithelial cell epithelial-mesenchymal transition (EMT) and invasion. However, the underlying mechanism remains largely obscure. MicroRNAs (miRNAs) are reported to be involved in regulation of multiple cellular functions of cancer. To determine whether autocrine/paracrine hGH promotes EMT and invasion through modulation of miRNA expression, we performed microarray profiling using MCF-7 cells stably expressing wild type or a translation-deficient hGH gene and identified miR-96-182-183 as an autocrine/paracrine hGH-regulated miRNA cluster. Forced expression of miR-96-182-183 conferred on epithelioid MCF-7 cells a mesenchymal phenotype and promoted invasive behavior in vitro and dissemination in vivo. Moreover, we observed that miR-96-182-183 promoted EMT and invasion by directly and simultaneously suppressing BRMS1L (breast cancer metastasis suppressor 1-like) gene expression. miR-96 and miR-182 also targeted GHR, providing a potential negative feedback loop in the hGH-GHR signaling pathway. We further demonstrated that autocrine/paracrine hGH stimulated miR-96-182-183 expression and facilitated EMT and invasion via STAT3 and STAT5 signaling. Consistent with elevated expression of autocrine/paracrine hGH in metastatic breast cancer tissue, miR-96-182-183 expression was also remarkably enhanced. Hence, we delineate the roles of the miRNA-96-182-183 cluster and elucidate a novel hGH-GHR-STAT3/STAT5-miR-96-182-183-BRMS1L-ZEB1/E47-EMT/invasion axis, which provides further understanding of the mechanism of autocrine/paracrine hGH-stimulated EMT and invasion in breast cancer. PMID:25873390

  20. Autocrine Signaling by Wnt-5a Deregulates Chemotaxis of Leukemic Cells and Predicts Clinical Outcome in Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Janovská, P.; Poppová, L.; Plevová, K.; Plesingerova, E.; Behal, M.; Kaucká, M.; Ovesná, P.; Hlozkova, M.; Borský, M.; Stehlíková, O.; Brychtová, Y.; Doubek, M.; Machalova, M.; Baskar, S.; Kozubík, Alois; Pospíšilová, Š.; Pavlová, Š.; Bryja, Vítězslav

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 22, č. 2 (2016), s. 459-469 ISSN 1078-0432 Institutional support: RVO:68081707 Keywords : receptor tyrosine kinase * cd38 expression * mutation status * cll cells Subject RIV: BO - Biophysics Impact factor: 9.619, year: 2016

  1. Type I Interferons Function as Autocrine and Paracrine Factors to Induce Autotaxin in Response to TLR Activation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Jianwen; Guan, Ming; Zhao, Zhenwen; Zhang, Junjie

    2015-01-01

    Lysophosphatidic acid (LPA) is an important phospholipid mediator in inflammation and immunity. However, the mechanism of LPA regulation during inflammatory response is largely unknown. Autotaxin (ATX) is the key enzyme to produce extracellular LPA from lysophosphatidylcholine (LPC). In this study, we found that ATX was induced in monocytic THP-1 cells by TLR4 ligand lipopolysaccharide (LPS), TLR9 ligand CpG oligonucleotide, and TLR3 ligand poly(I:C), respectively. The ATX induction by TLR ligand was abolished by the neutralizing antibody against IFN-β or the knockdown of IFNAR1, indicating that type I IFN autocrine loop is responsible for the ATX induction upon TLR activation. Both IFN-β and IFN-α were able to induce ATX expression via the JAK-STAT and PI3K-AKT pathways but with different time-dependent manners. The ATX induction by IFN-β was dramatically enhanced by IFN-γ, which had no significant effect on ATX expression alone, suggesting a synergy effect between type I and type II IFNs in ATX induction. Extracellular LPA levels were significantly increased when THP-1 cells were treated with IFN-α/β or TLR ligands. In addition, the type I IFN-mediated ATX induction was identified in human monocyte-derived dendritic cells (moDCs) stimulated with LPS or poly(I:C), and IFN-α/β could induce ATX expression in human peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) and monocytes isolated form blood samples. These results suggest that, in response to TLR activation, ATX is induced through a type I INF autocrine-paracrine loop to enhance LPA generation. PMID:26313906

  2. Type I Interferons Function as Autocrine and Paracrine Factors to Induce Autotaxin in Response to TLR Activation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jianwen Song

    Full Text Available Lysophosphatidic acid (LPA is an important phospholipid mediator in inflammation and immunity. However, the mechanism of LPA regulation during inflammatory response is largely unknown. Autotaxin (ATX is the key enzyme to produce extracellular LPA from lysophosphatidylcholine (LPC. In this study, we found that ATX was induced in monocytic THP-1 cells by TLR4 ligand lipopolysaccharide (LPS, TLR9 ligand CpG oligonucleotide, and TLR3 ligand poly(I:C, respectively. The ATX induction by TLR ligand was abolished by the neutralizing antibody against IFN-β or the knockdown of IFNAR1, indicating that type I IFN autocrine loop is responsible for the ATX induction upon TLR activation. Both IFN-β and IFN-α were able to induce ATX expression via the JAK-STAT and PI3K-AKT pathways but with different time-dependent manners. The ATX induction by IFN-β was dramatically enhanced by IFN-γ, which had no significant effect on ATX expression alone, suggesting a synergy effect between type I and type II IFNs in ATX induction. Extracellular LPA levels were significantly increased when THP-1 cells were treated with IFN-α/β or TLR ligands. In addition, the type I IFN-mediated ATX induction was identified in human monocyte-derived dendritic cells (moDCs stimulated with LPS or poly(I:C, and IFN-α/β could induce ATX expression in human peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs and monocytes isolated form blood samples. These results suggest that, in response to TLR activation, ATX is induced through a type I INF autocrine-paracrine loop to enhance LPA generation.

  3. Chemokine CXCL3 mediates prostate cancer cells proliferation, migration and gene expression changes in an autocrine/paracrine fashion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xin, Hua; Cao, Yu; Shao, Ming-Liang; Zhang, Wei; Zhang, Chun-Bin; Wang, Jing-Tao; Liang, Li-Chun; Shao, Wen-Wu; Qi, Ya-Ling; Li, Yue; Zhang, Ze-Yu; Yang, Zhe; Sun, Yu-Hong; Zhang, Peng-Xia; Jia, Lin-Lin; Wang, Wei-Qun

    2018-03-09

    We have previously indicated that CXCL3 was upregulated in the tissues of prostate cancer, and exogenous administration of CXCL3 played a predominant role in the tumorigenicity of prostate cancer cells. In the present study, we further explored the role and the underlying mechanism of CXCL3 overexpression in the oncogenic potential of prostate cancer in an autocrine/paracrine fashion. CXCL3-overexpressing prostate cancer cell line PC-3 and immortalized prostate stromal cell line WPMY-1 were established by gene transfection. CCK-8, transwell assays and growth of tumor xenografts were conducted to characterize the effects of CXCL3 on PC-3 cells' proliferation and migration. Western blotting was conducted to test whether CXCL3 could affect the expression of tumorigenesis-associated genes. The results showed that CXCL3 overexpression in PC-3 cells and the PC-3 cells treated with the supernatants of CXCL3-transfected WPMY-1 cells stimulated the proliferation and migration of PC-3 cells in vitro and in a nude mouse xenograft model. Western blotting revealed higher levels of p-ERK, Akt and Bcl-2 and lower levels of Bax in the tumor xenografts transplanted with CXCL3-transfected PC-3 cells. Moreover, the tumor xenografts derived from the PC-3 cells treated with supernatants of CXCL3-transfected WPMY-1 cells showed higher expression of ERK, Akt and Bcl-2 and lower expression of Bax. These findings suggest that CXCL3 autocrine/paracrine pathways are involved in the development of prostate cancer by regulating the expression of the target genes that are related to the progression of malignancies.

  4. Luminal and basal-like breast cancer cells show increased migration induced by hypoxia, mediated by an autocrine mechanism

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Voss, Melanie J; Möller, Mischa F; Powe, Desmond G; Niggemann, Bernd; Zänker, Kurt S; Entschladen, Frank

    2011-01-01

    Some breast cancer patients receiving anti-angiogenic treatment show increased metastases, possibly as a result of induced hypoxia. The effect of hypoxia on tumor cell migration was assessed in selected luminal, post-EMT and basal-like breast carcinoma cell lines. Migration was assessed in luminal (MCF-7), post-EMT (MDA-MB-231, MDA-MB-435S), and basal-like (MDA-MB-468) human breast carcinoma cell lines under normal and oxygen-deprived conditions, using a collagen-based assay. Cell proliferation was determined, secreted cytokine and chemokine levels were measured using flow-cytometry and a bead-based immunoassay, and the hypoxic genes HIF-1α and CA IX were assessed using PCR. The functional effect of tumor-cell conditioned medium on the migration of neutrophil granulocytes (NG) was tested. Hypoxia caused increased migratory activity but not proliferation in all tumor cell lines, involving the release and autocrine action of soluble mediators. Conditioned medium (CM) from hypoxic cells induced migration in normoxic cells. Hypoxia changed the profile of released inflammatory mediators according to cell type. Interleukin-8 was produced only by post-EMT and basal-like cell lines, regardless of hypoxia. MCP-1 was produced by MDA-MB-435 and -468 cells, whereas IL-6 was present only in MDA-MB-231. IL-2, TNF-α, and NGF production was stimulated by hypoxia in MCF-7 cells. CM from normoxic and hypoxic MDA-MB-231 and MDA-MB-435S cells and hypoxic MCF-7 cells, but not MDA-MB-468, induced NG migration. Hypoxia increases migration by the autocrine action of released signal substances in selected luminal and basal-like breast carcinoma cell lines which might explain why anti-angiogenic treatment can worsen clinical outcome in some patients

  5. Autocrine activation of human monocyte/macrophages by monocyte-derived microparticles and modulation by PPARγ ligands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bardelli, C; Amoruso, A; Federici Canova, D; Fresu, Lg; Balbo, P; Neri, T; Celi, A; Brunelleschi, S

    2012-02-01

    Microparticles (MPs), small membrane-bound particles originating from different cell types during activation or apoptosis, mediate intercellular communication, exert pro-coagulant activity and affect inflammation and other pathophysiological conditions. Monocyte-derived MPs have undergone little investigation and, to our knowledge, have never been evaluated for their possible autocrine effects. Therefore, we assessed the ability of monocyte-derived MPs to stimulate human monocytes and monocyte-derived macrophages (MDM). MPs were generated from supernatants of human monocytes stimulated by the calcium ionophore A23187 (12 µM), and then characterized. Human monocytes and MDM of healthy donors were isolated by standard procedures. Cells were challenged by MPs or phorbol 12-myristate 13-acetate (PMA, used as standard stimulus), in the absence or presence of PPARγ agonists and antagonists. Superoxide anion production (measured spectrophotometrically), cytokine release (elisa), PPARγ protein expression (immunoblotting) and NF-κB activation (EMSA assay) were evaluated. Monocyte-derived MPs induced, in a concentration-dependent manner, oxygen radical production, cytokine release and NF-κB activation in human monocytes and macrophages, with lower effects than PMA. In both cell types, the PPARγ agonists rosiglitazone and 15-deoxy-Δ(12,14) -prostaglandin J(2) (15d-PGJ(2) ) inhibited MPs-induced stimulation and this inhibition was reversed by a PPARγ antagonist. In human monocyte/macrophages, MPs as well as rosiglitazone and 15d-PGJ(2) induced PPARγ protein expression. In human monocyte/macrophages, monocyte-derived MPs exert an autocrine activation that was modulated by PPARγ ligands, inducing both pro-inflammatory (superoxide anion production, cytokine release and NF-κB activation) and anti-inflammatory (PPARγ expression) effects. © 2011 The Authors. British Journal of Pharmacology © 2011 The British Pharmacological Society.

  6. Autocrine activation of human monocyte/macrophages by monocyte-derived microparticles and modulation by PPARγ ligands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bardelli, C; Amoruso, A; Federici Canova, D; Fresu, LG; Balbo, P; Neri, T; Celi, A; Brunelleschi, S

    2012-01-01

    BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE Microparticles (MPs), small membrane-bound particles originating from different cell types during activation or apoptosis, mediate intercellular communication, exert pro-coagulant activity and affect inflammation and other pathophysiological conditions. Monocyte-derived MPs have undergone little investigation and, to our knowledge, have never been evaluated for their possible autocrine effects. Therefore, we assessed the ability of monocyte-derived MPs to stimulate human monocytes and monocyte-derived macrophages (MDM). EXPERIMENTAL APPROACH MPs were generated from supernatants of human monocytes stimulated by the calcium ionophore A23187 (12 µM), and then characterized. Human monocytes and MDM of healthy donors were isolated by standard procedures. Cells were challenged by MPs or phorbol 12-myristate 13-acetate (PMA, used as standard stimulus), in the absence or presence of PPARγ agonists and antagonists. Superoxide anion production (measured spectrophotometrically), cytokine release (elisa), PPARγ protein expression (immunoblotting) and NF-κB activation (EMSA assay) were evaluated. KEY RESULTS Monocyte-derived MPs induced, in a concentration-dependent manner, oxygen radical production, cytokine release and NF-κB activation in human monocytes and macrophages, with lower effects than PMA. In both cell types, the PPARγ agonists rosiglitazone and 15-deoxy-Δ12,14-prostaglandin J2 (15d-PGJ2) inhibited MPs-induced stimulation and this inhibition was reversed by a PPARγ antagonist. In human monocyte/macrophages, MPs as well as rosiglitazone and 15d-PGJ2 induced PPARγ protein expression. CONCLUSION AND IMPLICATIONS In human monocyte/macrophages, monocyte-derived MPs exert an autocrine activation that was modulated by PPARγ ligands, inducing both pro-inflammatory (superoxide anion production, cytokine release and NF-κB activation) and anti-inflammatory (PPARγ expression) effects. PMID:21745193

  7. Characterization of the autocrine/paracrine function of vitamin D in human gingival fibroblasts and periodontal ligament cells.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kaining Liu

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: We previously demonstrated that 25-hydroxyvitamin D(3, the precursor of 1α,25-dihydroxyvitamin D(3, is abundant around periodontal soft tissues. Here we investigate whether 25-hydroxyvitamin D(3 is converted to 1α,25-dihydroxyvitamin D(3 in periodontal soft tissue cells and explore the possibility of an autocrine/paracrine function of 1α,25-dihydroxyvitamin D(3 in periodontal soft tissue cells. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We established primary cultures of human gingival fibroblasts and human periodontal ligament cells from 5 individual donors. We demonstrated that 1α-hydroxylase was expressed in human gingival fibroblasts and periodontal ligament cells, as was cubilin. After incubation with the 1α-hydroxylase substrate 25-hydroxyvitamin D(3, human gingival fibroblasts and periodontal ligament cells generated detectable 1α,25-dihydroxyvitamin D(3 that resulted in an up-regulation of CYP24A1 and RANKL mRNA. A specific knockdown of 1α-hydroxylase in human gingival fibroblasts and periodontal ligament cells using siRNA resulted in a significant reduction in both 1α,25-dihydroxyvitamin D(3 production and mRNA expression of CYP24A1 and RANKL. The classical renal regulators of 1α-hydroxylase (parathyroid hormone, calcium and 1α,25-dihydroxyvitamin D(3 and Porphyromonas gingivalis lipopolysaccharide did not influence 1α-hydroxylase expression significantly, however, interleukin-1β and sodium butyrate strongly induced 1α-hydroxylase expression in human gingival fibroblasts and periodontal ligament cells. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: In this study, the expression, activity and functionality of 1α-hydroxylase were detected in human gingival fibroblasts and periodontal ligament cells, raising the possibility that vitamin D acts in an autocrine/paracrine manner in these cells.

  8. Effects of Cholecalciferol on Key Components of Vitamin D-Endo/Para/Autocrine System in Experimental Type 1 Diabetes

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    Anna Mazanova

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Objectives. Recent prospective studies have found the associations between type 1 diabetes (T1D and vitamin D deficiency. We investigated the role of vitamin D in the regulation of 25OHD-1α-hydroxylase (CYP27B1 and VDR expression in different tissues of T1D rats. Design. T1D was induced in male Wistar rats by streptozotocin (55 mg/k b.w.. After 2 weeks of T1D, the animals were treated orally with or without vitamin D3 (cholecalciferol; 100 IU/rat, 30 days. Methods. Serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25OHD was detected by ELISA. CYP27A1, CYP2R1, CYP27B1, and VDR were assayed by RT-qPCR and Western blotting or visualized by immunofluorescence staining. Results. We demonstrated that T1D led to a decrease in blood 25OHD, which is probably due to the established downregulation of CYP27A1 and CYP2R1 expression. Vitamin D deficiency was accompanied by elevated synthesis of renal CYP27B1 and VDR. Conversely, CYP27B1 and VDR expression decreased in the liver, bone tissue, and bone marrow. Cholecalciferol administration countered the impairments of the vitamin D-endo/para/autocrine system in the kidneys and extrarenal tissues of diabetic rats. Conclusions. T1D-induced vitamin D deficiency is associated with impairments of renal and extrarenal CYP27B1 and VDR expression. Cholecalciferol can be effective in the amelioration of diabetes-associated abnormalities in the vitamin D-endo/para/autocrine system.

  9. Autocrine human growth hormone (hGH) regulation of human mammary carcinoma cell gene expression. Identification of CHOP as a mediator of hGH-stimulated human mammary carcinoma cell survival.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mertani, H C; Zhu, T; Goh, E L; Lee, K O; Morel, G; Lobie, P E

    2001-06-15

    By use of cDNA array technology we have screened 588 genes to determine the effect of autocrine production of human growth hormone (hGH) on gene expression in human mammary carcinoma cells. We have used a previously described cellular model to study autocrine hGH function in which the hGH gene or a translation-deficient hGH gene was stably transfected into MCF-7 cells. Fifty two of the screened genes were regulated, either positively () or negatively (), by autocrine production of hGH. We have now characterized the role of one of the up-regulated genes, chop (gadd153), in the effect of autocrine production of hGH on mammary carcinoma cell number. The effect of autocrine production of hGH on the level of CHOP mRNA was exerted at the transcriptional level as autocrine hGH increased chloramphenicol acetyltransferase production from a reporter plasmid containing a 1-kilobase pair fragment of the chop promoter. The autocrine hGH-stimulated increase in CHOP mRNA also resulted in an increase in CHOP protein. As a consequence, autocrine hGH stimulation of CHOP-mediated transcriptional activation was increased. Stable transfection of human CHOP cDNA into mammary carcinoma cells demonstrated that CHOP functioned not as a mediator of hGH-stimulated mitogenesis but rather enhanced the protection from apoptosis afforded by hGH in a p38 MAPK-dependent manner. Thus transcriptional up-regulation of chop is one mechanism by which hGH regulates mammary carcinoma cell number.

  10. Overexpressing the novel autocrine/endocrine adipokine WISP2 induces hyperplasia of the heart, white and brown adipose tissues and prevents insulin resistance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grünberg, John R; Hoffmann, Jenny M; Hedjazifar, Shahram

    2017-01-01

    WISP2 is a novel adipokine, most highly expressed in the adipose tissue and primarily in undifferentiated mesenchymal cells. As a secreted protein, it is an autocrine/paracrine activator of canonical WNT signaling and, as an intracellular protein, it helps to maintain precursor cells undifferenti......WISP2 is a novel adipokine, most highly expressed in the adipose tissue and primarily in undifferentiated mesenchymal cells. As a secreted protein, it is an autocrine/paracrine activator of canonical WNT signaling and, as an intracellular protein, it helps to maintain precursor cells...... WNT ligands, WISP2 expression was inhibited by BMP4 thereby allowing normal induction of adipogenesis. WISP2 is a novel secreted regulator of mesenchymal tissue cellularity....

  11. Expression of autocrine motility factor mRNA is a poor prognostic factor in high-grade astrocytoma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanizaki, Yoshinori; Sato, Yuichi; Oka, Hidehiro; Utsuki, Satoshi; Kondo, Koji; Miyajima, Yoshiteru; Nagashio, Ryo; Fujii, Kiyotaka

    2006-09-01

    It has been reported that tumor infiltration is correlated with the expression of autocrine motility factor (AMF) and its receptor 78 kDa glycoprotein (gp78). The purpose of the present study was to detect AMF and gp78 mRNA expression levels and their localization in high-grade astrocytomas (glioblastoma and anaplastic astrocytoma) and to determine whether AMF and gp78 are important prognostic factors. A total of 32 formalin-fixed and paraffin-embedded glioblastomas and 23 formalin-fixed and paraffin-embedded anaplastic astrocytomas was used. The expressions of AMF and gp78 mRNA were detected using the highly sensitive in situ hybridization method. The expression of AMF mRNA was detected in 27 of 32 glioblastomas (84.4%) and 11 of 23 anaplastic astrocytomas (47.8%). The positivity of AMF mRNA was significantly higher in glioblastomas than in anaplastic astrocytomas (P = 0.0094), but gp78 mRNA was detected in most cases and no statistical significance was observed. The overall survival of patients with AMF expression was significantly shorter than patients without AMF expression (P = 0.0175). In anaplastic astrocytomas, the overall survival of patients with AMF expression was also significantly shorter than in patients without AMF expression (P = 0.0058). This study demonstrated that AMF is a poor prognostic factor in high-grade astrocytomas.

  12. Activation of Vitamin D Regulates Response of Human Bronchial Epithelial Cells to Aspergillus fumigatus in an Autocrine Fashion

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    Pei Li

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Aspergillus fumigatus (A. fumigatus is one of the most common fungi to cause diseases in humans. Recent evidence has demonstrated that airway epithelial cells play an important role in combating A. fumigatus through inflammatory responses. Human airway epithelial cells have been proven to synthesize the active vitamin D, which plays a key role in regulating inflammation. The present study was conducted to investigate the impact of A. fumigatus infection on the activation of vitamin D and the role of vitamin D activation in A. fumigatus-elicited antifungal immunity in normal human airway epithelial cells. We found that A. fumigatus swollen conidia (SC induced the expression of 1α-hydroxylase, the enzyme catalyzing the synthesis of active vitamin D, and vitamin D receptor (VDR in 16HBE cells and led to increased local generation of active vitamin D. Locally activated vitamin D amplified SC-induced expression of antimicrobial peptides in 16HBE cells but attenuated SC-induced production of cytokines in an autocrine fashion. Furthermore, we identified β-glucan, the major A. fumigatus cell wall component, as the causative agent for upregulation of 1α-hydroxylase and VDR in 16HBE cells. Therefore, activation of vitamin D is inducible and provides a bidirectional regulation of the responses to A. fumigatus in 16HBE cells.

  13. An Autocrine Proliferation Repressor Regulates Dictyostelium discoideum Proliferation and Chemorepulsion Using the G Protein-Coupled Receptor GrlH

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    Yu Tang

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available In eukaryotic microbes, little is known about signals that inhibit the proliferation of the cells that secrete the signal, and little is known about signals (chemorepellents that cause cells to move away from the source of the signal. Autocrine proliferation repressor protein A (AprA is a protein secreted by the eukaryotic microbe Dictyostelium discoideum. AprA is a chemorepellent for and inhibits the proliferation of D. discoideum. We previously found that cells sense AprA using G proteins, suggesting the existence of a G protein-coupled AprA receptor. To identify the AprA receptor, we screened mutants lacking putative G protein-coupled receptors. We found that, compared to the wild-type strain, cells lacking putative receptor GrlH (grlH{macron} cells show rapid proliferation, do not have large numbers of cells moving away from the edges of colonies, are insensitive to AprA-induced proliferation inhibition and chemorepulsion, and have decreased AprA binding. Expression of GrlH in grlH{macron} cells (grlH{macron}/grlHOE rescues the phenotypes described above. These data indicate that AprA signaling may be mediated by GrlH in D. discoideum.

  14. Autocrine IL-10 activation of the STAT3 pathway is required for pathological macrophage differentiation in polycystic kidney disease

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    Jacqueline D. Peda

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Polycystic kidney disease (PKD is characterized by slow expansion of fluid-filled cysts derived from tubules within the kidney. Cystic expansion results in injury to surrounding parenchyma and leads to inflammation, scarring and ultimately loss of renal function. Macrophages are a key element in this process, promoting cyst epithelial cell proliferation, cyst expansion and disease progression. Previously, we have shown that the microenvironment established by cystic epithelial cells can ‘program’ macrophages, inducing M2-like macrophage polarization that is characterized by expression of markers that include Arg1 and Il10. Here, we functionally characterize these macrophages, demonstrating that their differentiation enhances their ability to promote cyst cell proliferation. This observation indicates a model of reciprocal pathological interactions between cysts and the innate immune system: cyst epithelial cells promote macrophage polarization to a phenotype that, in turn, is especially efficient in promoting cyst cell proliferation and cyst growth. To better understand the genesis of this macrophage phenotype, we examined the role of IL-10, a regulatory cytokine shown to be important for macrophage-stimulated tissue repair in other settings. Herein, we show that the acquisition of the pathological macrophage phenotype requires IL-10 secretion by the macrophages. Further, we demonstrate a requirement for IL-10-dependent autocrine activation of the STAT3 pathway. These data suggest that the IL-10 pathway in macrophages plays an essential role in the pathological relationship between cysts and the innate immune system in PKD, and thus could be a potential therapeutic target.

  15. Thrombin induces epithelial-mesenchymal transition and collagen production by retinal pigment epithelial cells via autocrine PDGF-receptor signaling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bastiaans, Jeroen; van Meurs, Jan C; van Holten-Neelen, Conny; Nagtzaam, Nicole M A; van Hagen, P Martin; Chambers, Rachel C; Hooijkaas, Herbert; Dik, Willem A

    2013-12-19

    De-differentiation of RPE cells into mesenchymal cells (epithelial-mesenchymal transition; EMT) and associated collagen production contributes to development of proliferative vitreoretinopathy (PVR). In patients with PVR, intraocular coagulation cascade activation occurs and may play an important initiating role. Therefore, we examined the effect of the coagulation proteins factor Xa and thrombin on EMT and collagen production by RPE cells. Retinal pigment epithelial cells were stimulated with factor Xa or thrombin and the effect on zonula occludens (ZO)-1, α-smooth muscle actin (α-SMA), collagen, and platelet-derived growth factor (PDGF)-B were determined by real-time quantitative-polymerase chain reaction (RQ-PCR), immunofluorescence microscopy, and HPLC and ELISA for collagen and PDGF-BB in culture supernatants, respectively. PDGF-receptor activation was determined by phosphorylation analysis and inhibition studies using the PDGF-receptor tyrosine kinase inhibitor AG1296. Thrombin reduced ZO-1 gene expression (P production of α-SMA and collagen increased. In contrast to thrombin, factor Xa hardly stimulated EMT by RPE. Thrombin clearly induced PDGF-BB production and PDGF-Rβ chain phosphorylation in RPE. Moreover, AG1296 significantly blocked the effect of thrombin on EMT and collagen production. Our findings demonstrate that thrombin is a potent inducer of EMT by RPE via autocrine activation of PDGF-receptor signaling. Coagulation cascade-induced EMT of RPE may thus contribute to the formation of fibrotic retinal membranes in PVR and should be considered as treatment target in PVR.

  16. HER2 overexpression elicits a pro-inflammatory IL-6 autocrine signaling loop that is critical for tumorigenesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartman, Zachary C.; Yang, Xiao-Yi; Glass, Oliver; Lei, Gangjun; Osada, Takuya; Dave, Sandeep S.; Morse, Michael A.; Clay, Timothy M.; Lyerly, Herbert Kim

    2011-01-01

    HER2 overexpression occurs in ~25% of breast cancers where it correlates with poor prognosis. Likewise, systemic inflammation in breast cancer correlates with poor prognosis although the process is not understood. In this study, we explored the relationship between HER2 and inflammation, comparing the effects of overexpressing wild-type or mutated inactive forms of HER2 in primary human breast cells. Wild-type HER2 elicited a profound transcriptional inflammatory profile, including marked elevation of IL-6 expression, which we established to be a critical determinant of HER2 oncogenesis. Mechanistic investigations revealed that IL-6 secretion induced by HER2 overexpression activated Stat3 and altered gene expression, enforcing an autocrine loop of IL-6/Stat3 expression. Both mouse and human in vivo models of HER2 amplified breast carcinoma relied critically on this HER2-IL-6-Stat3 signaling pathway. Our studies offer the first direct evidence linking HER2 to a systemic inflammatory mechanism that orchestrates HER2-mediated tumor growth. We suggest that the HER2-IL6-STAT3 signaling axis we have defined in breast cancer could prompt new therapeutic or prevention strategies for treatment of HER2-amplified cancers. PMID:21518778

  17. Promotion of human early embryonic development and blastocyst outgrowth in vitro using autocrine/paracrine growth factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kawamura, Kazuhiro; Chen, Yuan; Shu, Yimin; Cheng, Yuan; Qiao, Jie; Behr, Barry; Pera, Renee A Reijo; Hsueh, Aaron J W

    2012-01-01

    Studies using animal models demonstrated the importance of autocrine/paracrine factors secreted by preimplantation embryos and reproductive tracts for embryonic development and implantation. Although in vitro fertilization-embryo transfer (IVF-ET) is an established procedure, there is no evidence that present culture conditions are optimal for human early embryonic development. In this study, key polypeptide ligands known to be important for early embryonic development in animal models were tested for their ability to improve human early embryo development and blastocyst outgrowth in vitro. We confirmed the expression of key ligand/receptor pairs in cleavage embryos derived from discarded human tri-pronuclear zygotes and in human endometrium. Combined treatment with key embryonic growth factors (brain-derived neurotrophic factor, colony-stimulating factor, epidermal growth factor, granulocyte macrophage colony-stimulating factor, insulin-like growth factor-1, glial cell-line derived neurotrophic factor, and artemin) in serum-free media promoted >2.5-fold the development of tri-pronuclear zygotes to blastocysts. For normally fertilized embryos, day 3 surplus embryos cultured individually with the key growth factors showed >3-fold increases in the development of 6-8 cell stage embryos to blastocysts and >7-fold increase in the proportion of high quality blastocysts based on Gardner's criteria. Growth factor treatment also led to a 2-fold promotion of blastocyst outgrowth in vitro when day 7 surplus hatching blastocysts were used. When failed-to-be-fertilized oocytes were used to perform somatic cell nuclear transfer (SCNT) using fibroblasts as donor karyoplasts, inclusion of growth factors increased the progression of reconstructed SCNT embryos to >4-cell stage embryos. Growth factor supplementation of serum-free cultures could promote optimal early embryonic development and implantation in IVF-ET and SCNT procedures. This approach is valuable for infertility

  18. Proinflammatory Effect of High Glucose Concentrations on HMrSV5 Cells via the Autocrine Effect of HMGB1

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    Yuening Chu

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Background: Peritoneal fibrosis, in which inflammation and apoptosis play crucial pathogenic roles, is a severe complication associated with the treatment of kidney failure with peritoneal dialysis (PD using a glucose-based dialysate. Mesothelial cells (MCs take part in the inflammatory processes by producing various cytokines and chemokines, such as monocyte chemoattractant protein 1 (MCP-1 and interleukin 8 (IL-8. The apoptosis of MCs induced by high glucose levels also contributes to complications of PD. High mobility group protein B1 (HMGB1 is an inflammatory factor that has repeatedly been proven to be related to the occurrence of peritoneal dysfunction.Aim: In this study, we aimed to explore the effect and underlying mechanism of endogenous HMGB1 in high-glucose-induced MC injury.Methods: The human peritoneal MC line, HMrSV5 was cultured in high-glucose medium and incubated with recombinant HMGB1. Cellular expression of HMGB1 was blocked using HMGB1 small interfering RNA (siRNA. Apoptosis and production of inflammatory factors as well as the potential intermediary signaling pathways were examined.Results: The major findings of these analyses were: (1 MCs secreted HMGB1 from the nucleus during exposure to high glucose levels; HMGB1 acted in an autocrine fashion on the MCs to promote the production of MCP-1 and IL-8; (2 HMGB1 had little effect on high-glucose-induced apoptosis of the MCs; and (3 HMGB1-mediated MCP-1 and IL-8 production depended on the activation of MAPK signaling pathways. In conclusion, endogenous HMGB1 plays an important role in the inflammatory reaction induced by high glucose on MCs via mitogen-activated protein kinase (MAPK signaling pathways, but it seems to have little effect on high-glucose-induced apoptosis.

  19. Autocrine production of beta-chemokines protects CMV-Specific CD4 T cells from HIV infection.

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    Joseph P Casazza

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available Induction of a functional subset of HIV-specific CD4+ T cells that is resistant to HIV infection could enhance immune protection and decrease the rate of HIV disease progression. CMV-specific CD4+ T cells, which are less frequently infected than HIV-specific CD4+ T cells, are a model for such an effect. To determine the mechanism of this protection, we compared the functional response of HIV gag-specific and CMV pp65-specific CD4+ T cells in individuals co-infected with CMV and HIV. We found that CMV-specific CD4+ T cells rapidly up-regulated production of MIP-1alpha and MIP-1beta mRNA, resulting in a rapid increase in production of MIP-1alpha and MIP-1beta after cognate antigen stimulation. Production of beta-chemokines was associated with maturational phenotype and was rarely seen in HIV-specific CD4+ T cells. To test whether production of beta-chemokines by CD4+ T cells lowers their susceptibility to HIV infection, we measured cell-associated Gag DNA to assess the in vivo infection history of CMV-specific CD4+ T cells. We found that CMV-specific CD4+ T cells which produced MIP-1beta contained 10 times less Gag DNA than did those which failed to produce MIP-1beta. These data suggest that CD4+ T cells which produce MIP-1alpha and MIP-1beta bind these chemokines in an autocrine fashion which decreases the risk of in vivo HIV infection.

  20. An Autocrine Proliferation Repressor Regulates Dictyostelium discoideum Proliferation and Chemorepulsion Using the G Protein-Coupled Receptor GrlH.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Yu; Wu, Yuantai; Herlihy, Sarah E; Brito-Aleman, Francisco J; Ting, Jose H; Janetopoulos, Chris; Gomer, Richard H

    2018-02-13

    In eukaryotic microbes, little is known about signals that inhibit the proliferation of the cells that secrete the signal, and little is known about signals (chemorepellents) that cause cells to move away from the source of the signal. Autocrine proliferation repressor protein A (AprA) is a protein secreted by the eukaryotic microbe Dictyostelium discoideum AprA is a chemorepellent for and inhibits the proliferation of D. discoideum We previously found that cells sense AprA using G proteins, suggesting the existence of a G protein-coupled AprA receptor. To identify the AprA receptor, we screened mutants lacking putative G protein-coupled receptors. We found that, compared to the wild-type strain, cells lacking putative receptor GrlH ( grlH¯ cells) show rapid proliferation, do not have large numbers of cells moving away from the edges of colonies, are insensitive to AprA-induced proliferation inhibition and chemorepulsion, and have decreased AprA binding. Expression of GrlH in grlH¯ cells ( grlH¯/grlH OE ) rescues the phenotypes described above. These data indicate that AprA signaling may be mediated by GrlH in D. discoideum IMPORTANCE Little is known about how eukaryotic cells can count themselves and thus regulate the size of a tissue or density of cells. In addition, little is known about how eukaryotic cells can sense a repellant signal and move away from the source of the repellant, for instance, to organize the movement of cells in a developing embryo or to move immune cells out of a tissue. In this study, we found that a eukaryotic microbe uses G protein-coupled receptors to mediate both cell density sensing and chemorepulsion. Copyright © 2018 Tang et al.

  1. The ROCO kinase QkgA is necessary for proliferation inhibition by autocrine signals in Dictyostelium discoideum.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phillips, Jonathan E; Gomer, Richard H

    2010-10-01

    AprA and CfaD are secreted proteins that function as autocrine signals to inhibit cell proliferation in Dictyostelium discoideum. Cells lacking AprA or CfaD proliferate rapidly, and adding AprA or CfaD to cells slows proliferation. Cells lacking the ROCO kinase QkgA proliferate rapidly, with a doubling time 83% of that of the wild type, and overexpression of a QkgA-green fluorescent protein (GFP) fusion protein slows cell proliferation. We found that qkgA(-) cells accumulate normal levels of extracellular AprA and CfaD. Exogenous AprA or CfaD does not slow the proliferation of cells lacking qkgA, and expression of QkgA-GFP in qkgA(-) cells rescues this insensitivity. Like cells lacking AprA or CfaD, cells lacking QkgA tend to be multinucleate, accumulate nuclei rapidly, and show a mass and protein accumulation per nucleus like those of the wild type, suggesting that QkgA negatively regulates proliferation but not growth. Despite their rapid proliferation, cells lacking AprA, CfaD, or QkgA expand as a colony on bacteria less rapidly than the wild type. Unlike AprA and CfaD, QkgA does not affect spore viability following multicellular development. Together, these results indicate that QkgA is necessary for proliferation inhibition by AprA and CfaD, that QkgA mediates some but not all of the effects of AprA and CfaD, and that QkgA may function downstream of these proteins in a signal transduction pathway regulating proliferation.

  2. Hypertonic stress induces VEGF production in human colon cancer cell line Caco-2: inhibitory role of autocrine PGE₂.

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    Luciana B Gentile

    Full Text Available Vascular Endothelial Growth Factor (VEGF is a major regulator of angiogenesis. VEGF expression is up regulated in response to micro-environmental cues related to poor blood supply such as hypoxia. However, regulation of VEGF expression in cancer cells is not limited to the stress response due to increased volume of the tumor mass. Lipid mediators in particular arachidonic acid-derived prostaglandin (PGE₂ are regulators of VEGF expression and angiogenesis in colon cancer. In addition, increased osmolarity that is generated during colonic water absorption and feces consolidation seems to activate colon cancer cells and promote PGE₂ generation. Such physiological stimulation may provide signaling for cancer promotion. Here we investigated the effect of exposure to a hypertonic medium, to emulate colonic environment, on VEGF production by colon cancer cells. The role of concomitant PGE₂ generation and MAPK activation was addressed by specific pharmacological inhibition. Human colon cancer cell line Caco-2 exposed to a hypertonic environment responded with marked VEGF and PGE₂ production. VEGF production was inhibited by selective inhibitors of ERK 1/2 and p38 MAPK pathways. To address the regulatory role of PGE₂ on VEGF production, Caco-2 cells were treated with cPLA₂ (ATK and COX-2 (NS-398 inhibitors, that completely block PGE₂ generation. The Caco-2 cells were also treated with a non selective PGE₂ receptor antagonist. Each treatment significantly increased the hypertonic stress-induced VEGF production. Moreover, addition of PGE₂ or selective EP₂ receptor agonist to activated Caco-2 cells inhibited VEGF production. The autocrine inhibitory role for PGE₂ appears to be selective to hypertonic environment since VEGF production induced by exposure to CoCl₂ was decreased by inhibition of concomitant PGE₂ generation. Our results indicated that hypertonicity stimulates VEGF production in colon cancer cell lines. Also PGE

  3. Autocrine proliferative effects of hGH are maintained in primary cultures of human mammary carcinoma cells.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiesa, Jean; Ferrer, Catherine; Arnould, Cécile; Vouyovitch, Cécile M; Diaz, Jean-Jacques; Gonzalez, Samia; Mares, Pierre; Morel, Gérard; Wu, Zheng-Sheng; Zhu, Tao; Lobie, Peter E; Mertani, Hichem C

    2011-09-01

    Empirical evidence suggests that autocrine human GH (hGH) may possess a proliferative and oncogenic role in human mammary carcinoma. However, this concept is largely derived from studies using cultured human mammary carcinoma cell (HMCC) lines. We investigated the expression and functionality of hGH and the hGH receptor in isolated cultures of primary HMCC. Epithelial cell adhesion molecule-positive primary HMCC were isolated from surgical biopsies of patients with mammary carcinoma and cultured in vitro. Expression of hGH and hGH receptor was determined by RT-PCR, immunofluorescence microscopy, and ELISA. The proliferative response of the cultured primary HMCC to hGH stimulation or hGH inhibition with a hGH antagonist was determined. One hundred percent of cultured primary HMCC expressed the hGH receptor, and 52% expressed hGH at the mRNA level. hGH-positive primary HMCC produced hGH protein within the cell and secreted hGH to the media. Both hGH-negative and hGH-positive HMCC responded to hGH stimulation with large increases in cell number. hGH-positive HMCC responded to inhibition of hGH by a hGH antagonist with a decrease in cell number, whereas hGH-negative HMCC did not. Primary HMCC proliferate in response to hGH, and the proliferation of hGH-positive HMCC is inhibited by hGH antagonism. Inhibition of hGH in patients with mammary carcinoma may therefore limit tumor growth.

  4. Inhibition of the autocrine IL-6–JAK2–STAT3–calprotectin axis as targeted therapy for HR−/HER2+ breast cancers

    OpenAIRE

    Rodriguez-Barrueco, Ruth; Yu, Jiyang; Saucedo-Cuevas, Laura P.; Olivan, Mireia; Llobet-Navas, David; Putcha, Preeti; Castro, Veronica; Murga-Penas, Eva M.; Collazo-Lorduy, Ana; Castillo-Martin, Mireia; Alvarez, Mariano; Cordon-Cardo, Carlos; Kalinsky, Kevin; Maurer, Matthew; Califano, Andrea

    2015-01-01

    Rodriguez-Barrueco et al. found that HR−/HER2+ cells secrete high levels of IL-6, inducing the activation of STAT3, which in turn promotes a second autocrine stimulus to increase S100A8/9 complex (calprotectin) production and secretion. Inhibition of the IL-6–JAK2–STAT3–calprotectin axis with FDA-approved drugs, alone and in combination with HER2 inhibitors, reduced the tumorigenicity of HR−/HER2+ breast cancers.

  5. Raft-dependent endocytosis of autocrine motility factor/phosphoglucose isomerase: a potential drug delivery route for tumor cells.

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    Liliana D Kojic

    Full Text Available Autocrine motility factor/phosphoglucose isomerase (AMF/PGI is the extracellular ligand for the gp78/AMFR receptor overexpressed in a variety of human cancers. We showed previously that raft-dependent internalization of AMF/PGI is elevated in metastatic MDA-435 cells, but not metastatic, caveolin-1-expressing MDA-231 cells, relative to non-metastatic MCF7 and dysplastic MCF10A cells suggesting that it might represent a tumor cell-specific endocytic pathway.Similarly, using flow cytometry, we demonstrate that raft-dependent endocytosis of AMF/PGI is increased in metastatic HT29 cancer cells expressing low levels of caveolin-1 relative to metastatic, caveolin-1-expressing, HCT116 colon cells and non-metastatic Caco-2 cells. Therefore, we exploited the raft-dependent internalization of AMF/PGI as a potential tumor-cell specific targeting mechanism. We synthesized an AMF/PGI-paclitaxel conjugate and found it to be as efficient as free paclitaxel in inducing cytotoxicity and apoptosis in tumor cells that readily internalize AMF/PGI compared to tumor cells that poorly internalize AMF/PGI. Murine K1735-M1 and B16-F1 melanoma cells internalize FITC-conjugated AMF/PGI and are acutely sensitive to AMF/PGI-paclitaxel mediated cytotoxicity in vitro. Moreover, following in vivo intratumoral injection, FITC-conjugated AMF/PGI is internalized in K1735-M1 tumors. Intratumoral injection of AMF/PGI-paclitaxel induced significantly higher tumor regression compared to free paclitaxel, even in B16-F1 cells, known to be resistant to taxol treatment. Treatment with AMF/PGI-paclitaxel significantly prolonged the median survival time of tumor bearing mice. Free AMF/PGI exhibited a pro-survival role, reducing the cytotoxic effect of both AMF/PGI-paclitaxel and free paclitaxel suggesting that AMF/PGI-paclitaxel targets a pathway associated with resistance to chemotherapeutic agents. AMF/PGI-FITC uptake by normal murine spleen and thymus cells was negligible both in vitro

  6. Regulation of Prostate Development and Benign Prostatic Hyperplasia by Autocrine Cholinergic Signaling via Maintaining the Epithelial Progenitor Cells in Proliferating Status

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    Naitao Wang

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Regulation of prostate epithelial progenitor cells is important in prostate development and prostate diseases. Our previous study demonstrated a function of autocrine cholinergic signaling (ACS in promoting prostate cancer growth and castration resistance. However, whether or not such ACS also plays a role in prostate development is unknown. Here, we report that ACS promoted the proliferation and inhibited the differentiation of prostate epithelial progenitor cells in organotypic cultures. These results were confirmed by ex vivo lineage tracing assays and in vivo renal capsule recombination assays. Moreover, we found that M3 cholinergic receptor (CHRM3 was upregulated in a large subset of benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH tissues compared with normal tissues. Activation of CHRM3 also promoted the proliferation of BPH cells. Together, our findings identify a role of ACS in maintaining prostate epithelial progenitor cells in the proliferating state, and blockade of ACS may have clinical implications for the management of BPH.

  7. Cervical Cancer HeLa Cell Autocrine Apoptosis Induced by Co-immobilized TNF-α plus IFN-γ Biomaterials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jian; Zhang, Yuxiao; Chen, Liyi; Lu, Xinhua; Li, Zhibin; Xue, Yongyong; Guan, Yan-Qing

    2018-02-13

    Based on our earlier work with co-immobilized TNF-α plus IFN-γ induction of HeLa cell death, we used FRET and XRD techniques to examine the differences in the structure of co-immobilized TNF-α plus IFN-γ and free TNF-α plus IFN-γ. The expressions of both TNF-α and IFN-α increased significantly, as determined by gene microarray analysis, however, in the presence of TNF-α plus IFN-α inhibitors, TNF-α and IFN-α did not increase in HeLa cells induced by co-immobilized TNF-γ plus IFN-α. This suggests that the TNF-α and IFN-α are the results of autocrine signaling in HeLa cells, and that cell death is caused by these substances. The mortality was then measured by flow cytometry and the results demonstrate that co-immobilized TNF-α plus IFN-γ induced death is a type of autocrine-induced apoptosis in HeLa cells. In addition, we performed Elisa, RT-PCR, flow cytometry, and western blot analyses, as well as a series of analytical tests at the animal level. We demonstrated that at both the cellular and animal levels, HeLa cells induced by co-immobilized IFN-γ plus TNF-α secrete much more IFN-α and TNF-α, than these two cytokines could exert on HeLa cells alone, and that this leads to cancer cell death.

  8. Collagen and Stretch Modulate Autocrine Secretion of Insulin-like Growth Factor-1 and Insulin-like Growth Factor Binding Proteins from Differentiated Skeletal Muscle Cells

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perrone, Carmen E.; Fenwick-Smith, Daniela; Vandenburgh, Herman H.

    1995-01-01

    Stretch-induced skeletal muscle growth may involve increased autocrine secretion of insulin-like growth factor-1 (IGF-1) since IGF-1 is a potent growth factor for skeletal muscle hypertrophy, and stretch elevates IGF-1 mRNA levels in vivo. In tissue cultures of differentiated avian pectoralis skeletal muscle cells, nanomolar concentrations of exogenous IGF-1 stimulated growth in mechanically stretched but not static cultures. These cultures released up to 100 pg of endogenously produced IGF-1/micro-g of protein/day, as well as three major IGF binding proteins of 31, 36, and 43 kilodaltons (kDa). IGF-1 was secreted from both myofibers and fibroblasts coexisting in the muscle cultures. Repetitive stretch/relaxation of the differentiated skeletal muscle cells stimulated the acute release of IGF-1 during the first 4 h after initiating mechanical activity, but caused no increase in the long-term secretion over 24-72 h of IGF-1, or its binding proteins. Varying the intensity and frequency of stretch had no effect on the long-term efflux of IGF-1. In contrast to stretch, embedding the differentiated muscle cells in a three-dimensional collagen (Type I) matrix resulted in a 2-5-fold increase in long-term IGF-1 efflux over 24-72 h. Collagen also caused a 2-5-fold increase in the release of the IGF binding proteins. Thus, both the extracellular matrix protein type I collagen and stretch stimulate the autocrine secretion of IGF-1, but with different time kinetics. This endogenously produced growth factor may be important for the growth response of skeletal myofibers to both types of external stimuli.

  9. The first trimester human trophoblast cell line ACH-3P: a novel tool to study autocrine/paracrine regulatory loops of human trophoblast subpopulations--TNF-alpha stimulates MMP15 expression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hiden, Ursula; Wadsack, Christian; Prutsch, Nicole; Gauster, Martin; Weiss, Ursula; Frank, Hans-Georg; Schmitz, Ulrike; Fast-Hirsch, Christa; Hengstschläger, Markus; Pötgens, Andy; Rüben, Angela; Knöfler, Martin; Haslinger, Peter; Huppertz, Berthold; Bilban, Martin; Kaufmann, Peter; Desoye, Gernot

    2007-12-19

    The trophoblast compartment of the placenta comprises various subpopulations with distinct functions. They interact among each other by secreted signals thus forming autocrine or paracrine regulatory loops. We established a first trimester trophoblast cell line (ACH-3P) by fusion of primary human first trimester trophoblasts (week 12 of gestation) with a human choriocarcinoma cell line (AC1-1). Expression of trophoblast markers (cytokeratin-7, integrins, matrix metalloproteinases), invasion abilities and transcriptome of ACH-3P closely resembled primary trophoblasts. Morphology, cytogenetics and doubling time was similar to the parental AC1-1 cells. The different subpopulations of trophoblasts e.g., villous and extravillous trophoblasts also exist in ACH-3P cells and can be immuno-separated by HLA-G surface expression. HLA-G positive ACH-3P display pseudopodia and a stronger expression of extravillous trophoblast markers. Higher expression of insulin-like growth factor II receptor and human chorionic gonadotropin represents the basis for the known autocrine stimulation of extravillous trophoblasts. We conclude that ACH-3P represent a tool to investigate interaction of syngeneic trophoblast subpopulations. These cells are particularly suited for studies into autocrine and paracrine regulation of various aspects of trophoblast function. As an example a novel effect of TNF-alpha on matrix metalloproteinase 15 in HLA-G positive ACH-3P and explants was found.

  10. Melanoma cell-derived exosomes promote epithelial-mesenchymal transition in primary melanocytes through paracrine/autocrine signaling in the tumor microenvironment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiao, Deyi; Barry, Samantha; Kmetz, Daniel; Egger, Michael; Pan, Jianmin; Rai, Shesh N; Qu, Jifu; McMasters, Kelly M.; Hao, Hongying

    2016-01-01

    The tumor microenvironment is abundant with exosomes that are secreted by the cancer cells themselves. Exosomes are nanosized, organelle-like membranous structures that are increasingly being recognized as major contributors in the progression of malignant neoplasms. A critical element in melanoma progression is its propensity to metastasize, but little is known about how melanoma cell-derived exosomes modulate the microenvironment to optimize conditions for tumor progression and metastasis. Here, we provide evidence that melanoma cell-derived exosomes promote phenotype switching in primary melanocytes through paracrine/autocrine signaling. We found that the mitogen-activated protein kinase (MAPK) signaling pathway was activated during the exosome-mediated epithelial-to-mesenchymal transition (EMT)-resembling process, which promotes metastasis. Let-7i, an miRNA modulator of EMT, was also involved in this process. We further defined two other miRNA modulators of EMT (miR-191 and let-7a) in serum exosomes for differentiating stage I melanoma patients from non-melanoma subjects. These results provide the first strong molecular evidence that melanoma cell-derived exosomes promote the EMT-resembling process in the tumor microenvironment. Thus, novel strategies targeting EMT and modulating the tumor microenvironment may emerge as important approaches for the treatment of metastatic melanoma. PMID:27063098

  11. Brain-midgut cross-talk and autocrine metabolastat via the sNPF/CCAP negative feed-back loop in the American cockroach, Periplaneta americana.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mikani, Azam; Watari, Yasuhiko; Takeda, Makio

    2015-12-01

    Immunohistochemical reactivities against short neuropeptide F (sNPF-ir) and crustacean cardioactive peptide (CCAP-ir) were detected in both the brain-subesophageal ganglion (Br-SOG) and midgut epithelial cells of the male American cockroach, Periplaneta americana. Four weeks of starvation increased the number of sNPF-ir cells and decreased the CCAP-ir cells in the Br-SOG, whereas refeeding reversed these effects. The contents of sNPF in the Br-SOG, midgut and hemolymph titer decreased in response to an injection of CCAP into the hemocoel of normally fed male cockroaches, while CCAP titers/contents decreased in response to an injection of sNPF. The results of a double-labeling experiment demonstrated that sNPF-ir co-existed in CCAP-ir cells in the pars intercerebralis (PI), dorsolateral region of protocerebrum (DL), deutocerebrum (De) and SOG. sNPF-ir and CCAP-ir were also colocalized in the midgut. sNPF and CCAP are neuropeptides and midgut factors that interact with each other. Since the two peptides are known to be secreted by identical cells that affect each other, this constitutes autocrine negative feedback regulation for a quick response to food accessibility/inaccessibility. These peptides not only constitute the switch in the digestive mechanism but also couple digestive adaptation with behavior. A CCAP injection suppressed locomotor activity when cockroaches were starved, whereas sNPF activated it when they were fed.

  12. Autocrine production of TGF-β confers resistance to apoptosis after an epithelial-mesenchymal transition process in hepatocytes: Role of EGF receptor ligands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Castillo, Gaelle del; Murillo, Miguel M.; Alvarez-Barrientos, Alberto; Bertran, Esther; Fernandez, Margarita; Sanchez, Aranzazu; Fabregat, Isabel

    2006-01-01

    Transforming growth factor-beta (TGF-β) induces apoptosis in fetal rat hepatocytes. However, a subpopulation of these cells survives, concomitant with changes in phenotype, reminiscent of an epithelial-mesenchymal transition (EMT). We have previously suggested that EMT might confer cell resistance to apoptosis (Valdes et al., Mol. Cancer Res., 1: 68-78, 2002). However, the molecular mechanisms responsible for this resistance are not explored yet. In this work, we have isolated and subcultured the population of hepatocytes that suffered the EMT process and are resistant to apoptosis (TGF-β-treated fetal hepatocytes: TβT-FH). We prove that they secrete mitogenic and survival factors, as analyzed by the proliferative and survival capacity of conditioned medium. Inhibition of the epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) sensitizes TβT-FH to die after serum withdrawal. TβT-FH expresses high levels of transforming growth factor-alpha (TGF-α) and heparin-binding EGF-like growth factor (HB-EGF) and shows constitutive activation of the EGFR pathway. A blocking anti-TGF-α antibody restores the capacity of cells to die. TGF-β, which is expressed by TβT-FH, mediates up-regulation of TGF-α and HB-EGF expression in those cells. In summary, results suggest that an autocrine loop of TGF-β confers resistance to apoptosis after an EMT process in hepatocytes, through the increase in the expression of EGFR ligands

  13. Lipopolysaccharide (LPS)-mediated Angiopoietin-2-dependent Autocrine Angiogenesis Is Regulated by NADPH Oxidase 2 (Nox2) in Human Pulmonary Microvascular Endothelial Cells*

    Science.gov (United States)

    Menden, Heather; Welak, Scott; Cossette, Stephanie; Ramchandran, Ramani; Sampath, Venkatesh

    2015-01-01

    Sepsis-mediated endothelial Angiopoeitin-2 (Ang2) signaling may contribute to microvascular remodeling in the developing lung. The mechanisms by which bacterial cell wall components such as LPS mediate Ang2 signaling in human pulmonary microvascular endothelial cells (HPMECs) remain understudied. In HPMEC, LPS-induced Ang2, Tie2, and VEGF-A protein expression was preceded by increased superoxide formation. NADPH oxidase 2 (Nox2) inhibition, but not Nox4 or Nox1 inhibition, attenuated LPS-induced superoxide formation and Ang2, Tie2, and VEGF-A expression. Nox2 silencing, but not Nox4 or Nox1 silencing, inhibited LPS-mediated inhibitor of κ-B kinase β (IKKβ) and p38 phosphorylation and nuclear translocation of NF-κB and AP-1. In HPMECs, LPS increased the number of angiogenic tube and network formations in Matrigel by >3-fold. Conditioned media from LPS-treated cells also induced angiogenic tube and network formation in the presence of Toll-like receptor 4 blockade but not in the presence of Ang2 and VEGF blockade. Nox2 inhibition or conditioned media from Nox2-silenced cells attenuated LPS-induced tube and network formation. Ang2 and VEGF-A treatment rescued angiogenesis in Nox2-silenced cells. We propose that Nox2 regulates LPS-mediated Ang2-dependent autocrine angiogenesis in HPMECs through the IKKβ/NF-κB and MAPK/AP-1 pathways. PMID:25568324

  14. Autocrine growth induced by the insulin-related factor in the insulin-independent teratoma cell line 1246-3A

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yamada, Yukio; Serrero, G.

    1988-01-01

    An insulin-independent teratoma-derived cell line, called 1246-3A, has been isolated from the adipogenic cell line 1246, which stringently requires insulin for proliferation. The 1246-3A cell line, which can proliferate in the absence of exogenous insulin, produces in its conditioned medium a growth factor similar to pancreatic insulin by its biological and immunological properties. This factor, called insulin-related factor (IRF), was purified and iodinated to study its binding to cell surface receptors. 125 I-labeled IRF binding to intact 1246-3A cells is lower than to 1246 cells. Cell surface binding can be restored by culturing the 1246-3A cells in the presence of an anti-porcine insulin monoclonal antibody of by acid prewash of the cells prior to performing the binding. Scatchard analysis of binding indicates that IRF secreted by the 1246-3A cells partially occupies high-affinity binding sites on the producer cells. Moreover, insulin monoclonal antibody inhibits the proliferation of the IRF-producing 1246-3A cells, suggesting that these cells are dependent on the secreted IRF for growth in culture. The authors conclude that the insulin-related factor secreted by the insulin-independent 1246-3A cells stimulates their proliferation in an autocrine fashion

  15. The putative bZIP transcription factor BzpN slows proliferation and functions in the regulation of cell density by autocrine signals in Dictyostelium.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jonathan E Phillips

    Full Text Available The secreted proteins AprA and CfaD function as autocrine signals that inhibit cell proliferation in Dictyostelium discoideum, thereby regulating cell numbers by a negative feedback mechanism. We report here that the putative basic leucine zipper transcription factor BzpN plays a role in the inhibition of proliferation by AprA and CfaD. Cells lacking BzpN proliferate more rapidly than wild-type cells but do not reach a higher stationary density. Recombinant AprA inhibits wild-type cell proliferation but does not inhibit the proliferation of cells lacking BzpN. Recombinant CfaD also inhibits wild-type cell proliferation, but promotes the proliferation of cells lacking BzpN. Overexpression of BzpN results in a reduced cell density at stationary phase, and this phenotype requires AprA, CfaD, and the kinase QkgA. Conditioned media from high-density cells stops the proliferation of wild-type but not bzpN(- cells and induces a nuclear localization of a BzpN-GFP fusion protein, though this localization does not require AprA or CfaD. Together, the data suggest that BzpN is necessary for some but not all of the effects of AprA and CfaD, and that BzpN may function downstream of AprA and CfaD in a signal transduction pathway that inhibits proliferation.

  16. The Putative bZIP Transcripton Factor BzpN Slows Proliferation and Functions in the Regulation of Cell Density by Autocrine Signals in Dictyostelium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phillips, Jonathan E.; Huang, Eryong; Shaulsky, Gad; Gomer, Richard H.

    2011-01-01

    The secreted proteins AprA and CfaD function as autocrine signals that inhibit cell proliferation in Dictyostelium discoideum, thereby regulating cell numbers by a negative feedback mechanism. We report here that the putative basic leucine zipper transcription factor BzpN plays a role in the inhibition of proliferation by AprA and CfaD. Cells lacking BzpN proliferate more rapidly than wild-type cells but do not reach a higher stationary density. Recombinant AprA inhibits wild-type cell proliferation but does not inhibit the proliferation of cells lacking BzpN. Recombinant CfaD also inhibits wild-type cell proliferation, but promotes the proliferation of cells lacking BzpN. Overexpression of BzpN results in a reduced cell density at stationary phase, and this phenotype requires AprA, CfaD, and the kinase QkgA. Conditioned media from high-density cells stops the proliferation of wild-type but not bzpN− cells and induces a nuclear localization of a BzpN-GFP fusion protein, though this localization does not require AprA or CfaD. Together, the data suggest that BzpN is necessary for some but not all of the effects of AprA and CfaD, and that BzpN may function downstream of AprA and CfaD in a signal transduction pathway that inhibits proliferation. PMID:21760904

  17. The putative bZIP transcription factor BzpN slows proliferation and functions in the regulation of cell density by autocrine signals in Dictyostelium.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phillips, Jonathan E; Huang, Eryong; Shaulsky, Gad; Gomer, Richard H

    2011-01-01

    The secreted proteins AprA and CfaD function as autocrine signals that inhibit cell proliferation in Dictyostelium discoideum, thereby regulating cell numbers by a negative feedback mechanism. We report here that the putative basic leucine zipper transcription factor BzpN plays a role in the inhibition of proliferation by AprA and CfaD. Cells lacking BzpN proliferate more rapidly than wild-type cells but do not reach a higher stationary density. Recombinant AprA inhibits wild-type cell proliferation but does not inhibit the proliferation of cells lacking BzpN. Recombinant CfaD also inhibits wild-type cell proliferation, but promotes the proliferation of cells lacking BzpN. Overexpression of BzpN results in a reduced cell density at stationary phase, and this phenotype requires AprA, CfaD, and the kinase QkgA. Conditioned media from high-density cells stops the proliferation of wild-type but not bzpN(-) cells and induces a nuclear localization of a BzpN-GFP fusion protein, though this localization does not require AprA or CfaD. Together, the data suggest that BzpN is necessary for some but not all of the effects of AprA and CfaD, and that BzpN may function downstream of AprA and CfaD in a signal transduction pathway that inhibits proliferation.

  18. Human Umbilical Cord Perivascular Cells Exhibited Enhanced Migration Capacity towards Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Comparison with Bone Marrow Mesenchymal Stromal Cells: A Role for Autocrine Motility Factor Receptor

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan Bayo

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC is the third cause of cancer-related death worldwide. Unfortunately, the incidence and mortality associated with HCC are increasing. Therefore, new therapeutic strategies are urgently needed and the use of mesenchymal stromal cells (MSCs as carrier of therapeutic genes is emerging as a promising option. Different sources of MSCs are being studied for cell therapy and bone marrow-derived cells are the most extensively explored; however, birth associated-tissues represent a very promising source. The aim of this work was to compare the in vitro and in vivo migration capacity between bone marrow MSCs (BM-MSCs and human umbilical cord perivascular cells (HUCPVCs towards HCC. We observed that HUCPVCs presented higher in vitro and in vivo migration towards factors released by HCC. The expression of autocrine motility factor (AMF receptor, genes related with the availability of the receptor on the cell surface (caveolin-1 and -2 and metalloproteinase 3, induced by the receptor activation and important for cell migration, was increased in HUCPVCs. The chemotactic response towards recombinant AMF was increased in HUCPVCs compared to BM-MSCs, and its inhibition in the conditioned medium from HCC induced higher decrease in HUCPVC migration than in BM-MSC. Our results indicate that HUCPVCs could be a useful cellular source to deliver therapeutic genes to HCC.

  19. Mitogenic effects of a mesothelial cell growth factor: evidence for a potential autocrine regulation of normal and malignant mesothelial cell proliferation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donna, A.; Betta, P. G.; Ribotta, M.; Maran, E.; Mazzucco, G.; Mollo, F.; Bellingeri, D.; Libener, R.

    1992-01-01

    We have investigated the growth-factor-like activity of a approximately 200-kDa, IP 8.3, cytoplasmic glycoprotein, the expression of which appears to be restricted to normal and malignant human mesothelium. This substance stimulated the growth of human mesothelioma cell cultures at greater rates than did foetal calf serum, but it failed to induce proliferation of lung carcinoma cell cultures. In addition, we have tried to trace the biosynthetic pathway of this mitogenic factor in normal human mesothelial cells by means of immuno-electron microscopy with a polyclonal antibody directed against this molecule. Positive immunogold labelling was found in the lumina of the cisternae of the endoplasmic reticulum, to a lesser extent on the outer surface of the plasma membrane, and also in structures corresponding to the coated pits. These ultrastructural findings are consistent with the hypothesis of the glycosylation of the newly synthesized protein in the endoplasmic reticulum and the subsequent uptake of the secreted molecule, which accumulates in the coated pits before internalization. The results suggest that this mitogenic glycoprotein could play a role in an autocrine growth control mechanism influencing mesothelial cell proliferation. Images Fig. 1 Fig. 2 Fig. 3 PMID:1571279

  20. Expression of autocrine prolactin and the short isoform of prolactin receptor are associated with inflammatory response and apoptosis in monocytes stimulated with Mycobacterium bovis proteins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    López-Rincón, Gonzalo; Mancilla, Raúl; Pereira-Suárez, Ana L; Martínez-Neri, Priscila A; Ochoa-Zarzosa, Alejandra; Muñoz-Valle, José Francisco; Estrada-Chávez, Ciro

    2015-06-01

    Increased levels of prolactin (PRL) have recently been associated with carcinogenesis and the exacerbation of autoimmune diseases, and might be involved in the progression of tuberculosis (TB). To investigate the relationship between PRL and prolactin receptor (PRLr) expression with inflammatory response and apoptosis in monocytes, we used THP-1 cells stimulated with antigens of the Mycobacterium bovis AN5 strain culture filtrate protein (CFP-M. bovis). Western blot (WB), real-time Polymerase chain reaction (PCR), and immunocytochemistry were performed to identify both PRL and PRLr molecules. PRL bioactivity and proinflammatory cytokine detection were assessed. The results showed that PRL and PRLr messenger RNA (mRNA) were synthesized in THP-1 monocytes induced with CFP-M. bovis at peaks of 176- and 404-fold, respectively. PRL forms of 60 and 80kDa and PRLr isoforms of 40, 50, and 65kDa were also identified as time-dependent, while 60-kDa PRL, as well as 40-, and 50-kDa PRLr, were found as soluble forms in culture media and later in the nucleus of THP-1 monocytes. PRL of 60kDa released by monocytes exhibited bioactivity in Nb2 cells, and both synthesized PRL and synthesized PRLr were related with nitrite and proinflammatory cytokine levels proapoptotic activity in CFP-M. bovis-induced monocytes. Our results suggest the overexpression of a full-autocrine loop of PRL and PRLr in monocytes that enhances the inflammatory response and apoptosis after priming with M. bovis antigens. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. FGF7 supports hematopoietic stem and progenitor cells and niche-dependent myeloblastoma cells via autocrine action on bone marrow stromal cells in vitro

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ishino, Ruri; Minami, Kaori; Tanaka, Satowa [Laboratory of Hematology, Division of Medical Biophysics, Kobe University Graduate School of Health Sciences, 7-10-2 Tomogaoka, Suma-ku, Kobe 654-0142 (Japan); Nagai, Mami [Consolidated Research Institute for Advanced Science and Medical Care, Waseda University, 3-4-1 Okubo, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo 159-8555 (Japan); Matsui, Keiji; Hasegawa, Natsumi [Laboratory of Hematology, Division of Medical Biophysics, Kobe University Graduate School of Health Sciences, 7-10-2 Tomogaoka, Suma-ku, Kobe 654-0142 (Japan); Roeder, Robert G. [Laboratory of Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, The Rockefeller University, 1230 York Avenue, New York, NY 10065 (United States); Asano, Shigetaka [Consolidated Research Institute for Advanced Science and Medical Care, Waseda University, 3-4-1 Okubo, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo 159-8555 (Japan); Ito, Mitsuhiro, E-mail: itomi@med.kobe-u.ac.jp [Laboratory of Hematology, Division of Medical Biophysics, Kobe University Graduate School of Health Sciences, 7-10-2 Tomogaoka, Suma-ku, Kobe 654-0142 (Japan); Laboratory of Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, The Rockefeller University, 1230 York Avenue, New York, NY 10065 (United States); Consolidated Research Institute for Advanced Science and Medical Care, Waseda University, 3-4-1 Okubo, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo 159-8555 (Japan); Department of Family and Community Medicine, Kobe University Graduate School of Medicine, 7-5-1 Kusunoki-cho, Chuo-ku, Kobe 654-0142 (Japan)

    2013-10-11

    Highlights: •FGF7 is downregulated in MED1-deficient mesenchymal cells. •FGF7 produced by mesenchymal stromal cells is a novel hematopoietic niche molecule. •FGF7 supports hematopoietic progenitor cells and niche-dependent leukemia cells. •FGF7 activates FGFR2IIIb of bone marrow stromal cells in an autocrine manner. •FGF7 indirectly acts on hematopoietic cells lacking FGFR2IIIb via stromal cells. -- Abstract: FGF1 and FGF2 support hematopoietic stem and progenitor cells (HSPCs) under stress conditions. In this study, we show that fibroblast growth factor (FGF7) may be a novel niche factor for HSPC support and leukemic growth. FGF7 expression was attenuated in mouse embryonic fibroblasts (MEFs) deficient for the MED1 subunit of the Mediator transcriptional coregulator complex. When normal mouse bone marrow (BM) cells were cocultured with Med1{sup +/+} MEFs or BM stromal cells in the presence of anti-FGF7 antibody, the growth of BM cells and the number of long-time culture-initiating cells (LTC-ICs) decreased significantly. Anti-FGF7 antibody also attenuated the proliferation and cobblestone formation of MB1 stromal cell-dependent myeloblastoma cells. The addition of recombinant FGF7 to the coculture of BM cells and Med1{sup −/−} MEFs increased BM cells and LTC-ICs. FGF7 and its cognate receptor, FGFR2IIIb, were undetectable in BM cells, but MEFs and BM stromal cells expressed both. FGF7 activated downstream targets of FGFR2IIIb in Med1{sup +/+} and Med1{sup −/−} MEFs and BM stromal cells. Taken together, we propose that FGF7 supports HSPCs and leukemia-initiating cells indirectly via FGFR2IIIb expressed on stromal cells.

  2. Autocrine/paracrine prostaglandin E2 production by non-small cell lung cancer cells regulates matrix metalloproteinase-2 and CD44 in cyclooxygenase-2-dependent invasion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dohadwala, Mariam; Batra, Raj K; Luo, Jie; Lin, Ying; Krysan, Kostyantyn; Pold, Mehis; Sharma, Sherven; Dubinett, Steven M

    2002-12-27

    Tumor cyclooxygenase-2 (COX-2) expression is known to be associated with enhanced tumor invasiveness. In the present study, we evaluated the importance of the COX-2 product prostaglandin E2 (PGE2) and its signaling through the EP4 receptor in mediating non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) invasiveness. Genetic inhibition of tumor COX-2 led to diminished matrix metalloproteinase (MMP)-2, CD44, and EP4 receptor expression and invasion. Treatment of NSCLC cells with exogenous 16,16-dimethylprostaglandin E2 significantly increased EP4 receptor, CD44, and MMP-2 expression and matrigel invasion. In contrast, anti-PGE2 decreased EP4 receptor, CD44, and MMP-2 expression in NSCLC cells. EP4 receptor signaling was found to be central to this process, because antisense oligonucleotide-mediated inhibition of tumor cell EP4 receptors significantly decreased CD44 expression. In addition, agents that increased intracellular cAMP, as is typical of EP4 receptor signaling, markedly increased CD44 expression. Moreover, MMP-2-AS treatment decreased PGE2-mediated CD44 expression, and CD44-AS treatment decreased MMP-2 expression. Thus, PGE2-mediated effects through EP4 required the parallel induction of both CD44 and MMP-2 expression because genetic inhibition of either MMP-2 or CD44 expression effectively blocked PGE2-mediated invasion in NSCLC. These findings indicate that PGE2 regulates COX-2-dependent, CD44- and MMP-2-mediated invasion in NSCLC in an autocrine/paracrine manner via EP receptor signaling. Thus, blocking PGE2 production or activity by genetic or pharmacological interventions may prove to be beneficial in chemoprevention or treatment of NSCLC.

  3. Role of prostaglandin E receptor subtypes EP2 and EP4 in autocrine and paracrine functions of vascular endothelial growth factor in the inner ear

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hamaguchi Kiyomi

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The physiological effects of prostaglandin E1 (PGE1 and prostaglandin E2 (PGE2 are mediated by the prostaglandin E receptor subtypes EP1, EP2, EP3, and EP4, and the respective agonists have been purified. PGE1 and PGE2 can increase the production of vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF, particularly through EP2 and EP4. The biological effects of VEGF are mediated by the phosphotyrosine kinase receptors fms-related tyrosine kinase-1 (Flt-1 and fetal liver kinase-1 (Flk-1. Here we examined the effects of EP2 and EP4 agonists on the production of VEGF proteins and VEGF messenger RNAs (mRNAs in the inner ear, using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay and the real-time quantitative reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction, respectively. We also examined the localization of EP2, VEGF, Flt-1, and Flk-1 in the cochlea by immunohistochemistry. Results The expression of EP2 occurred in the cochlea, and the local application of an EP2 or EP4 agonist increased VEGF protein and VEGF mRNA levels in the inner ear. Furthermore, the intensity of the VEGF immunoreactivity in the spiral ganglion appeared to be increased by the local EP2 or EP4 agonist treatment. Immunoreactivity for Flt-1, and Flk-1 was found in the cochlear sensory epithelium, spiral ganglion, spiral ligament, and stria vascularis. Conclusions These findings demonstrate that EP2 and EP4 agonists stimulate VEGF production in the inner ear, particularly in the spiral ganglions. Moreover, the Flt-1 and Flk-1 expression observed in the present study suggests that VEGF has autocrine and paracrine actions in the cochlea. Thus, EP2 and EP4 might be involved in the mechanisms underlying the therapeutic effects of PGE1 on acute sensorineural hearing loss via VEGF production.

  4. Role of prostaglandin E receptor subtypes EP2 and EP4 in autocrine and paracrine functions of vascular endothelial growth factor in the inner ear.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hori, Ryusuke; Nakagawa, Takayuki; Yamamoto, Norio; Hamaguchi, Kiyomi; Ito, Juichi

    2010-03-11

    The physiological effects of prostaglandin E1 (PGE1) and prostaglandin E2 (PGE2) are mediated by the prostaglandin E receptor subtypes EP1, EP2, EP3, and EP4, and the respective agonists have been purified. PGE1 and PGE2 can increase the production of vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF), particularly through EP2 and EP4. The biological effects of VEGF are mediated by the phosphotyrosine kinase receptors fms-related tyrosine kinase-1 (Flt-1) and fetal liver kinase-1 (Flk-1). Here we examined the effects of EP2 and EP4 agonists on the production of VEGF proteins and VEGF messenger RNAs (mRNAs) in the inner ear, using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay and the real-time quantitative reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction, respectively. We also examined the localization of EP2, VEGF, Flt-1, and Flk-1 in the cochlea by immunohistochemistry. The expression of EP2 occurred in the cochlea, and the local application of an EP2 or EP4 agonist increased VEGF protein and VEGF mRNA levels in the inner ear. Furthermore, the intensity of the VEGF immunoreactivity in the spiral ganglion appeared to be increased by the local EP2 or EP4 agonist treatment. Immunoreactivity for Flt-1, and Flk-1 was found in the cochlear sensory epithelium, spiral ganglion, spiral ligament, and stria vascularis. These findings demonstrate that EP2 and EP4 agonists stimulate VEGF production in the inner ear, particularly in the spiral ganglions. Moreover, the Flt-1 and Flk-1 expression observed in the present study suggests that VEGF has autocrine and paracrine actions in the cochlea. Thus, EP2 and EP4 might be involved in the mechanisms underlying the therapeutic effects of PGE1 on acute sensorineural hearing loss via VEGF production.

  5. TNF-α Induced by Hepatitis C Virus via TLR7 and TLR8 in Hepatocytes Supports Interferon Signaling via an Autocrine Mechanism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Jiyoung; Tian, Yongjun; Chan, Stephanie Tze; Kim, Ja Yeon; Cho, Cecilia; Ou, Jing-hsiung James

    2015-01-01

    Invasion by infectious pathogens can elicit a range of cytokine responses from host cells. These cytokines provide the initial host defense mechanism. In this report, we demonstrate that TNF-α, a pro-inflammatory cytokine, can be induced by hepatitis C virus (HCV) in its host cells in a biphasic manner. The initial induction of TNF-α by HCV was prompt and could be blocked by the antibody directed against the HCV E2 envelope protein and by chemicals that inhibit endocytosis, indicating the specificity of endocytic uptake of HCV in this induction. Further studies indicated that the induction of TNF-α was dependent on toll-like receptors 7 and 8 (TLR7/8) but not on other intracellular pattern recognition receptors. Consistently, siRNA-mediated gene silencing of the downstream effectors in the TLR7/8 signaling pathway including MyD88, IRAK1, TRAF6, TAK1 and p65 NF-κB suppressed the expression of TNF-α. The role of p65 NF-κB in the induction of TNF-α via transcriptional up-regulation was further confirmed by the chromatin immunoprecipitation assay. TNF-α induced by HCV could activate its own receptor TNFR1 on hepatocytes to suppress HCV replication. This suppressive effect of TNF-α on HCV was due to its role in supporting interferon signaling, as the suppression of its expression led to the loss of IFNAR2 and impaired interferon signaling and the induction of interferon-stimulated genes. In conclusion, our results indicate that hepatocytes can sense HCV infection via TLR7/8 to induce the expression of TNF-α, which inhibits HCV replication via an autocrine mechanism to support interferon signaling. PMID:26023919

  6. Intrinsic bevacizumab resistance is associated with prolonged activation of autocrine VEGF signaling and hypoxia tolerance in colorectal cancer cells and can be overcome by nintedanib, a small molecule angiokinase inhibitor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mésange, Paul; Poindessous, Virginie; Sabbah, Michèle; Escargueil, Alexandre E.; de Gramont, Aimery; Larsen, Annette K.

    2014-01-01

    Colorectal cancer (CRC) is a common tumor type with a high mortality rate, in part due to intrinsic drug resistance. Although bevacizumab, a VEGF-directed neutralizing antibody, is particularly active in this pathology, some patients never respond for reasons not well understood. We here wish to clarify the role of autocrine VEGF signaling in the response of CRC cells to angiogenesis inhibition. Our results show that CRC cells with intrinsic bevacizumab-resistance displayed pronounced upregulation of autocrine HIF-VEGF-VEGFR signaling in response to prolonged bevacizumab exposure whereas the same signaling pathway was downregulated in bevacizumab-sensitive xenografts. Importantly, both bevacizumab-sensitive and -resistant CRC xenografts were sensitive to nintedanib, a small molecule angiokinase inhibitor, which was associated with inhibition of mTORC1. In vitro studies revealed that bevacizumab-resistant cells displayed intrinsically higher HIF-VEGF signaling intensity and hypoxia tolerance compared to their bevacizumab-sensitive counterparts. Interestingly, although nintedanib showed comparable activity toward bevacizumab-sensitive cells under normoxia and hypoxia, the drug was three-fold more toxic to the resistant cells under hypoxia, suggesting that nintedanib attenuated the survival signaling that usually protects these cells from hypoxia-mediated cell death. In conclusion, our findings support a role for autocrine VEGF signaling in the survival of CRC cells to hypoxia and thus to angiogenesis inhibition. We further show that nintedanib, a small molecule angiokinase inhibitor, is active toward CRC models with intrinsic bevacizumab resistance supporting clinical trials of nintedanib in patients that do not respond to bevacizumab, alone or in combination with bevacizumab to increase angiogenesis inhibition. PMID:25015210

  7. Interleukin-8 (IL-8) over-production and autocrine cell activation are key factors in monomethylarsonous acid [MMA(III)]-induced malignant transformation of urothelial cells.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Escudero-Lourdes, C; Wu, T; Camarillo, J M; Gandolfi, A J

    2012-01-01

    The association between chronic human exposure to arsenicals and bladder cancer development is well recognized; however, the underlying molecular mechanisms have not been fully determined. We propose that inflammatory responses can play a pathogenic role in arsenic-related bladder carcinogenesis. In previous studies, it was demonstrated that chronic exposure to 50 nM monomethylarsenous acid [MMA(III)] leads to malignant transformation of an immortalized model of urothelial cells (UROtsa), with only 3 mo of exposure necessary to trigger the transformation-related changes. In the three-month window of exposure, the cells over-expressed pro-inflammatory cytokines (IL-1β, IL-6 and IL-8), consistent with the sustained activation of NFKβ and AP1/c-jun, ERK2, and STAT3. IL-8 was over-expressed within hours after exposure to MMA(III), and sustained over-expression was observed during chronic exposure. In this study, we profiled IL-8 expression in UROtsa cells exposed to 50 nM MMA(III) for 1 to 5 mo. IL-8 expression was increased mainly in cells after 3 mo MMA(III) exposure, and its production was also found increased in tumors derived from these cells after heterotransplantation in SCID mice. UROtsa cells do express both receptors, CXCR1 and CXCR2, suggesting that autocrine cell activation could be important in cell transformation. Supporting this observation and consistent with IL-8 over-expression, CXCR1 internalization was significantly increased after three months of exposure to MMA(III). The expression of MMP-9, cyclin D1, bcl-2, and VGEF was significantly increased in cells exposed to MMA(III) for 3 mo, but these mitogen-activated kinases were significantly decreased after IL-8 gene silencing, together with a decrease in cell proliferation rate and in anchorage-independent colony formation. These results suggest a relevant role of IL-8 in MMA(III)-induced UROtsa cell transformation. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Aberrant, ectopic expression of VEGF and VEGF receptors 1 and 2 in malignant colonic epithelial cells. Implications for these cells growth via an autocrine mechanism

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahluwalia, Amrita; Jones, Michael K.; Szabo, Sandor; Tarnawski, Andrzej S.

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: •Malignant colonic epithelial cells express VEGF and its receptors. •Cultured colon cancer cells secrete VEGF into the medium. •Inhibition of VEGF receptor significantly decreases colon cancer cell proliferation. •VEGF is critical for colon cancer cell growth. -- Abstract: Vascular endothelial growth factor A (referred to as VEGF) is implicated in colon cancer growth. Currently, the main accepted mechanism by which VEGF promotes colon cancer growth is via the stimulation of angiogenesis, which was originally postulated by late Judah Folkman. However, the cellular source of VEGF in colon cancer tissue; and, the expression of VEGF and its receptors VEGF-R1 and VEGF-R2 in colon cancer cells are not fully known and are subjects of controversy. Material and methods: We examined and quantified expression of VEGF, VEGF-R1 and VEGF-R2 in three different human colonic tissue arrays containing sections of adenocarcinoma (n = 43) and normal mucosa (n = 41). In human colon cancer cell lines HCT116 and HT29 and normal colon cell lines NCM356 and NCM460, we examined expression of VEGF, VEGF-R1 and VEGF-R2 mRNA and protein, VEGF production and secretion into the culture medium; and, the effect of a potent, selective inhibitor of VEGF receptors, AL-993, on cell proliferation. Results: Human colorectal cancer specimens had strong expression of VEGF in cancer cells and also expressed VEGF-R1 and VEGF-R2.In vitro studies showed that human colon cancer cell lines, HCT116 and HT29, but not normal colonic cell lines, express VEGF, VEGF-R1 and VEGF-R2 and secrete VEGF into the medium up to a concentration 2000 pg/ml within 48 h. Furthermore, we showed that inhibition of VEGF receptors using a specific VEGF-R inhibitor significantly reduced proliferation (by >50%) of cultured colon cancer cell lines. Conclusions: Our findings support the contention that VEGF generated by colon cancer cells stimulates their growth directly through an autocrine mechanism that is

  9. Arsenite evokes IL-6 secretion, autocrine regulation of STAT3 signaling, and miR-21 expression, processes involved in the EMT and malignant transformation of human bronchial epithelial cells

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Luo, Fei; Xu, Yuan; Ling, Min; Zhao, Yue; Xu, Wenchao; Liang, Xiao; Jiang, Rongrong; Wang, Bairu; Bian, Qian; Liu, Qizhan

    2013-01-01

    Arsenite is an established human carcinogen, and arsenite-induced inflammation contributes to malignant transformation of cells, but the molecular mechanisms by which cancers are produced remain to be established. The present results showed that, evoked by arsenite, secretion of interleukin-6 (IL-6), a pro-inflammatory cytokine, led to the activation of STAT3, a transcription activator, and to increased levels of a microRNA, miR-21. Blocking IL-6 with anti-IL-6 antibody and inhibiting STAT3 activation reduced miR-21 expression. For human bronchial epithelial cells, cultured in the presence of anti-IL-6 antibody for 3 days, the arsenite-induced EMT and malignant transformation were reversed. Thus, IL-6, acting on STAT3 signaling, which up-regulates miR-21in an autocrine manner, contributes to the EMT induced by arsenite. These data define a link from inflammation to EMT in the arsenite-induced malignant transformation of HBE cells. This link, mediated through miRNAs, establishes a mechanism for arsenite-induced lung carcinogenesis. - Highlights: • Arsenite evokes IL-6 secretion. • IL-6 autocrine mediates STAT3 signaling and up-regulates miR-21expression. • Inflammation is involved in arsenite-induced EMT

  10. Pluripotency gene expression and growth control in cultures of peripheral blood monocytes during their conversion into programmable cells of monocytic origin (PCMO: evidence for a regulatory role of autocrine activin and TGF-β.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hendrik Ungefroren

    Full Text Available Previous studies have shown that peripheral blood monocytes can be converted in vitro to a stem cell-like cell termed PCMO as evidenced by the re-expression of pluripotency-associated genes, transient proliferation, and the ability to adopt the phenotype of hepatocytes and insulin-producing cells upon tissue-specific differentiation. However, the regulatory interactions between cultured cells governing pluripotency and mitotic activity have remained elusive. Here we asked whether activin(s and TGF-β(s, are involved in PCMO generation. De novo proliferation of PCMO was higher under adherent vs. suspended culture conditions as revealed by the appearance of a subset of Ki67-positive monocytes and correlated with down-regulation of p21WAF1 beyond day 2 of culture. Realtime-PCR analysis showed that PCMO express ActRIIA, ALK4, TβRII, ALK5 as well as TGF-β1 and the βA subunit of activin. Interestingly, expression of ActRIIA and ALK4, and activin A levels in the culture supernatants increased until day 4 of culture, while levels of total and active TGF-β1 strongly declined. PCMO responded to both growth factors in an autocrine fashion with intracellular signaling as evidenced by a rise in the levels of phospho-Smad2 and a drop in those of phospho-Smad3. Stimulation of PCMO with recombinant activins (A, B, AB and TGF-β1 induced phosphorylation of Smad2 but not Smad3. Inhibition of autocrine activin signaling by either SB431542 or follistatin reduced both Smad2 activation and Oct4A/Nanog upregulation. Inhibition of autocrine TGF-β signaling by either SB431542 or anti-TGF-β antibody reduced Smad3 activation and strongly increased the number of Ki67-positive cells. Furthermore, anti-TGF-β antibody moderately enhanced Oct4A/Nanog expression. Our data show that during PCMO generation pluripotency marker expression is controlled positively by activin/Smad2 and negatively by TGF-β/Smad3 signaling, while relief from growth inhibition is primarily the

  11. Human Scalp Hair Follicles Are Both a Target and a Source of Prolactin, which Serves as an Autocrine and/or Paracrine Promoter of Apoptosis-Driven Hair Follicle Regression

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foitzik, Kerstin; Krause, Karoline; Conrad, Franziska; Nakamura, Motonobu; Funk, Wolfang; Paus, Ralf

    2006-01-01

    The prototypic pituitary hormone prolactin (PRL) exerts a wide variety of bioregulatory effects in mammals and is also found in extrapituitary sites, including murine skin. Here, we show by reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction and immunohistology that, contrary to a previous report, human skin and normal human scalp hair follicles (HFs), in particular, express both PRL and PRL receptors (PRL-R) at the mRNA and protein level. PRL and PRL-R immunoreactivity can be detected in the epithelium of human anagen VI HFs, while the HF mesenchyme is negative. During the HF transformation from growth (anagen) to apoptosis-driven regression (catagen), PRL and PRL-R immunoreactivity appear up-regulated. Treatment of organ-cultured human scalp HFs with high-dose PRL (400 ng/ml) results in a significant inhibition of hair shaft elongation and premature catagen development, along with reduced proliferation and increased apoptosis of hair bulb keratinocytes (Ki-67/terminal dUTP nick-end labeling immunohistomorphometry). This shows that PRL receptors, expressed in HFs, are functional and that human skin and human scalp HFs are both direct targets and sources of PRL. Our data suggest that PRL acts as an autocrine hair growth modulator with catagen-promoting functions and that the hair growth-inhibitory effects of PRL demonstrated here may underlie the as yet ill-understood hair loss in patients with hyperprolactinemia. PMID:16507890

  12. Human scalp hair follicles are both a target and a source of prolactin, which serves as an autocrine and/or paracrine promoter of apoptosis-driven hair follicle regression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foitzik, Kerstin; Krause, Karoline; Conrad, Franziska; Nakamura, Motonobu; Funk, Wolfang; Paus, Ralf

    2006-03-01

    The prototypic pituitary hormone prolactin (PRL) exerts a wide variety of bioregulatory effects in mammals and is also found in extrapituitary sites, including murine skin. Here, we show by reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction and immunohistology that, contrary to a previous report, human skin and normal human scalp hair follicles (HFs), in particular, express both PRL and PRL receptors (PRL-R) at the mRNA and protein level. PRL and PRL-R immunoreactivity can be detected in the epithelium of human anagen VI HFs, while the HF mesenchyme is negative. During the HF transformation from growth (anagen) to apoptosis-driven regression (catagen), PRL and PRL-R immunoreactivity appear up-regulated. Treatment of organ-cultured human scalp HFs with high-dose PRL (400 ng/ml) results in a significant inhibition of hair shaft elongation and premature catagen development, along with reduced proliferation and increased apoptosis of hair bulb keratinocytes (Ki-67/terminal dUTP nick-end labeling immunohistomorphometry). This shows that PRL receptors, expressed in HFs, are functional and that human skin and human scalp HFs are both direct targets and sources of PRL. Our data suggest that PRL acts as an autocrine hair growth modulator with catagen-promoting functions and that the hair growth-inhibitory effects of PRL demonstrated here may underlie the as yet ill-understood hair loss in patients with hyper-prolactinemia.

  13. ENSO Prediction and Predictability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cane, M. A.

    2016-12-01

    In 1986 there was one dynamical forecasting model for ENSO and a small handful of statistical and hybrid schemes. Now there are more than 40 models in the IRI-CPC forecast plume, many of them coupled GCMs. Why hasn't forecasting improved more in 30 years? In a 1982 landmark paper, Rasmussen and Carpenter created the canonical El Niño, transforming the inchoate view of the time. Now much research is focuses on ENSO diversity. Is our understanding deeper for this? Has this work properly incorporated the ENSO life cycle of the canonical event? Some eras are more predictable than others. Why? Is it random, or is there a systematic difference in background state? Do we have any idea how predictable ENSO is? Why is the ENSO band 2-7 years? What will become of ENSO in the next century?

  14. Autocrine Acetylcholine, Induced by IL-17A via NFκB and ERK1/2 Pathway Activation, Promotes MUC5AC and IL-8 Synthesis in Bronchial Epithelial Cells

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Angela Marina Montalbano

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available IL-17A is overexpressed in the lung during acute neutrophilic inflammation. Acetylcholine (ACh increases IL-8 and Muc5AC production in airway epithelial cells. We aimed to characterize the involvement of nonneuronal components of cholinergic system on IL-8 and Muc5AC production in bronchial epithelial cells stimulated with IL-17A. Bronchial epithelial cells were stimulated with recombinant human IL-17A (rhIL-17A to evaluate the ChAT expression, the ACh binding and production, the IL-8 release, and the Muc5AC production. Furthermore, the effectiveness of PD098,059 (inhibitor of MAPKK activation, Bay11-7082 (inhibitor of IkBα phosphorylation, Hemicholinium-3 (HCh-3 (choline uptake blocker, and Tiotropium bromide (Spiriva® (anticholinergic drug was tested in our in vitro model. We showed that rhIL-17A increased the expression of ChAT, the levels of ACh binding and production, and the IL-8 and Muc5AC production in stimulated bronchial epithelial cells compared with untreated cells. The pretreatment of the cells with PD098,059 and Bay11-7082 decreased the ChAT expression and the ACh production/binding, while HCh-3 and Tiotropium decreased the IL-8 and Muc5AC synthesis in bronchial epithelial cells stimulated with rhIL-17A. IL-17A is involved in the IL-8 and Muc5AC production promoting, via NFκB and ERK1/2 pathway activation, the synthesis of ChAT, and the related activity of autocrine ACh in bronchial epithelial cells.

  15. WALS Prediction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Magnus, J.R.; Wang, W.; Zhang, Xinyu

    2012-01-01

    Abstract: Prediction under model uncertainty is an important and difficult issue. Traditional prediction methods (such as pretesting) are based on model selection followed by prediction in the selected model, but the reported prediction and the reported prediction variance ignore the uncertainty

  16. Predictive Testing

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... you want to learn. Search form Search Predictive testing You are here Home Testing & Services Testing for ... you make the decision. What Is Predictive Genetic Testing Predictive genetic testing searches for genetic changes, or ...

  17. Climate prediction and predictability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, Myles

    2010-05-01

    Climate prediction is generally accepted to be one of the grand challenges of the Geophysical Sciences. What is less widely acknowledged is that fundamental issues have yet to be resolved concerning the nature of the challenge, even after decades of research in this area. How do we verify or falsify a probabilistic forecast of a singular event such as anthropogenic warming over the 21st century? How do we determine the information content of a climate forecast? What does it mean for a modelling system to be "good enough" to forecast a particular variable? How will we know when models and forecasting systems are "good enough" to provide detailed forecasts of weather at specific locations or, for example, the risks associated with global geo-engineering schemes. This talk will provide an overview of these questions in the light of recent developments in multi-decade climate forecasting, drawing on concepts from information theory, machine learning and statistics. I will draw extensively but not exclusively from the experience of the climateprediction.net project, running multiple versions of climate models on personal computers.

  18. Recently activated naive CD4 T cells can help resting B cells, and can produce sufficient autocrine IL-4 to drive differentiation to secretion of T helper 2-type cytokines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Croft, M; Swain, S L

    1995-05-01

    and provide cognate help to B cells. They also suggest that if activated naive CD4 cells receive multiple stimulations from Ag/APC, enough endogenous IL-4 can be produced to drive differentiation into effectors secreting type 2 cytokines. The existence of such an autocrine feedback mechanism suggests that the amount and availability of Ag could influence the nature and polarization of the Th response.

  19. Earthquake prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ward, P.L.

    1978-01-01

    The state of the art of earthquake prediction is summarized, the possible responses to such prediction are examined, and some needs in the present prediction program and in research related to use of this new technology are reviewed. Three basic aspects of earthquake prediction are discussed: location of the areas where large earthquakes are most likely to occur, observation within these areas of measurable changes (earthquake precursors) and determination of the area and time over which the earthquake will occur, and development of models of the earthquake source in order to interpret the precursors reliably. 6 figures

  20. Predictive medicine

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boenink, Marianne; ten Have, Henk

    2015-01-01

    In the last part of the twentieth century, predictive medicine has gained currency as an important ideal in biomedical research and health care. Research in the genetic and molecular basis of disease suggested that the insights gained might be used to develop tests that predict the future health

  1. Prediction Markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Horn, Christian Franz; Ivens, Bjørn Sven; Ohneberg, Michael

    2014-01-01

    In recent years, Prediction Markets gained growing interest as a forecasting tool among researchers as well as practitioners, which resulted in an increasing number of publications. In order to track the latest development of research, comprising the extent and focus of research, this article...... works, articles of theoretical nature, application-oriented studies and articles dealing with the topic of law and policy. The analysis of the research results reveals that more than half of the literature pool deals with the application and actual function tests of Prediction Markets. The results...

  2. Genetic Prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turkheimer, Eric

    2015-01-01

    The fundamental reason that the genetics of behavior has remained so controversial for so long is that the layer of theory between data and their interpretation is thicker and more opaque than in more established areas of science. The finding that variations in tiny snippets of DNA have small but detectable relations to variation in behavior surprises no one, at least no one who was paying attention to the twin studies. How such snippets of DNA are related to differences in behavior-known as the gene-to-behavior pathway-is the great theoretical problem of modern behavioral genetics. Given that intentional human breeding is a horrific prospect, what kind of technology might we want (or fear) out of human behavioral genetics? One possibility is a technology that could predict important behavioral characteristics of humans based on their genomes alone. A moment's thought suggests significant benefits and risks that might be associated with such a possibility, but for the moment, just consider how convincing it would be if on the day of a baby's birth we could make meaningful predictions about whether he or she would become a concert pianist or an alcoholic. This article will consider where we are right now as regards that possibility, using human height and intelligence as the primary examples. © 2015 The Hastings Center.

  3. Predictable Medea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elisabetta Bertolino

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available By focusing on the tragedy of the 'unpredictable' infanticide perpetrated by Medea, the paper speculates on the possibility of a non-violent ontological subjectivity for women victims of gendered violence and whether it is possible to respond to violent actions in non-violent ways; it argues that Medea did not act in an unpredictable way, rather through the very predictable subject of resentment and violence. 'Medea' represents the story of all of us who require justice as retribution against any wrong. The presupposition is that the empowered female subjectivity of women’s rights contains the same desire of mastering others of the masculine current legal and philosophical subject. The subject of women’s rights is grounded on the emotions of resentment and retribution and refuses the categories of the private by appropriating those of the righteous, masculine and public subject. The essay opposes the essentialised stereotypes of the feminine and the maternal with an ontological approach of people as singular, corporeal, vulnerable and dependent. There is therefore an emphasis on the excluded categories of the private. Forgiveness is taken into account as a category of the private and a possibility of responding to violence with newness. A violent act is seen in relations to the community of human beings rather than through an isolated setting as in the case of the individual of human rights. In this context, forgiveness allows to risk again and being with. The result is also a rethinking of feminist actions, feminine subjectivity and of the maternal. Overall the paper opens up the Arendtian category of action and forgiveness and the Cavarerian unique and corporeal ontology of the selfhood beyond gendered stereotypes.

  4. Predictable earthquakes?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martini, D.

    2002-12-01

    acceleration) and global number of earthquake for this period from published literature which give us a great picture about the dynamical geophysical phenomena. Methodology: The computing of linear correlation coefficients gives us a chance to quantitatively characterise the relation among the data series, if we suppose a linear dependence in the first step. The correlation coefficients among the Earth's rotational acceleration and Z-orbit acceleration (perpendicular to the ecliptic plane) and the global number of the earthquakes were compared. The results clearly demonstrate the common feature of both the Earth's rotation and Earth's Z-acceleration around the Sun and also between the Earth's rotational acceleration and the earthquake number. This fact might means a strong relation among these phenomena. The mentioned rather strong correlation (r = 0.75) and the 29 year period (Saturn's synodic period) was clearly shown in the counted cross correlation function, which gives the dynamical characteristic of correlation, of Earth's orbital- (Z-direction) and rotational acceleration. This basic period (29 year) was also obvious in the earthquake number data sets with clear common features in time. Conclusion: The Core, which involves the secular variation of the Earth's magnetic field, is the only sufficiently mobile part of the Earth with a sufficient mass to modify the rotation which probably effects on the global time distribution of the earthquakes. Therefore it might means that the secular variation of the earthquakes is inseparable from the changes in Earth's magnetic field, i.e. the interior process of the Earth's core belongs to the dynamical state of the solar system. Therefore if the described idea is real the global distribution of the earthquakes in time is predictable.

  5. Making detailed predictions makes (some) predictions worse

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelly, Theresa F.

    In this paper, we investigate whether making detailed predictions about an event makes other predictions worse. Across 19 experiments, 10,895 participants, and 415,960 predictions about 724 professional sports games, we find that people who made detailed predictions about sporting events (e.g., how many hits each baseball team would get) made worse predictions about more general outcomes (e.g., which team would win). We rule out that this effect is caused by inattention or fatigue, thinking too hard, or a differential reliance on holistic information about the teams. Instead, we find that thinking about game-relevant details before predicting winning teams causes people to give less weight to predictive information, presumably because predicting details makes information that is relatively useless for predicting the winning team more readily accessible in memory and therefore incorporated into forecasts. Furthermore, we show that this differential use of information can be used to predict what kinds of games will and will not be susceptible to the negative effect of making detailed predictions.

  6. A simple and accurate rule-based modeling framework for simulation of autocrine/paracrine stimulation of glioblastoma cell motility and proliferation by L1CAM in 2-D culture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caccavale, Justin; Fiumara, David; Stapf, Michael; Sweitzer, Liedeke; Anderson, Hannah J; Gorky, Jonathan; Dhurjati, Prasad; Galileo, Deni S

    2017-12-11

    Glioblastoma multiforme (GBM) is a devastating brain cancer for which there is no known cure. Its malignancy is due to rapid cell division along with high motility and invasiveness of cells into the brain tissue. Simple 2-dimensional laboratory assays (e.g., a scratch assay) commonly are used to measure the effects of various experimental perturbations, such as treatment with chemical inhibitors. Several mathematical models have been developed to aid the understanding of the motile behavior and proliferation of GBM cells. However, many are mathematically complicated, look at multiple interdependent phenomena, and/or use modeling software not freely available to the research community. These attributes make the adoption of models and simulations of even simple 2-dimensional cell behavior an uncommon practice by cancer cell biologists. Herein, we developed an accurate, yet simple, rule-based modeling framework to describe the in vitro behavior of GBM cells that are stimulated by the L1CAM protein using freely available NetLogo software. In our model L1CAM is released by cells to act through two cell surface receptors and a point of signaling convergence to increase cell motility and proliferation. A simple graphical interface is provided so that changes can be made easily to several parameters controlling cell behavior, and behavior of the cells is viewed both pictorially and with dedicated graphs. We fully describe the hierarchical rule-based modeling framework, show simulation results under several settings, describe the accuracy compared to experimental data, and discuss the potential usefulness for predicting future experimental outcomes and for use as a teaching tool for cell biology students. It is concluded that this simple modeling framework and its simulations accurately reflect much of the GBM cell motility behavior observed experimentally in vitro in the laboratory. Our framework can be modified easily to suit the needs of investigators interested in other

  7. PREDICT: Satellite tracking and orbital prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magliacane, John A.

    2011-12-01

    PREDICT is an open-source, multi-user satellite tracking and orbital prediction program written under the Linux operating system. PREDICT provides real-time satellite tracking and orbital prediction information to users and client applications through: the system console the command line a network socket the generation of audio speechData such as a spacecraft's sub-satellite point, azimuth and elevation headings, Doppler shift, path loss, slant range, orbital altitude, orbital velocity, footprint diameter, orbital phase (mean anomaly), squint angle, eclipse depth, the time and date of the next AOS (or LOS of the current pass), orbit number, and sunlight and visibility information are provided on a real-time basis. PREDICT can also track (or predict the position of) the Sun and Moon. PREDICT has the ability to control AZ/EL antenna rotators to maintain accurate orientation in the direction of communication satellites. As an aid in locating and tracking satellites through optical means, PREDICT can articulate tracking coordinates and visibility information as plain speech.

  8. Predictive modeling of complications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osorio, Joseph A; Scheer, Justin K; Ames, Christopher P

    2016-09-01

    Predictive analytic algorithms are designed to identify patterns in the data that allow for accurate predictions without the need for a hypothesis. Therefore, predictive modeling can provide detailed and patient-specific information that can be readily applied when discussing the risks of surgery with a patient. There are few studies using predictive modeling techniques in the adult spine surgery literature. These types of studies represent the beginning of the use of predictive analytics in spine surgery outcomes. We will discuss the advancements in the field of spine surgery with respect to predictive analytics, the controversies surrounding the technique, and the future directions.

  9. Autocrine role of vascular IL-15 in intimal thickening

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cercek, Miha; Matsumoto, Michiaki; Li, Hongyan; Chyu, K.-Y.; Peter, Ashok; Shah, Prediman K.; Dimayuga, Paul C.

    2006-01-01

    Interleukin 15 (IL-15) is a pro-inflammatory cytokine that modulates T cell recruitment and activation, independent of antigen. It has been detected in human atherosclerotic plaques and atherosclerotic plaques of apoE-/- mice. IL-15 regulates fractalkine (FKN)-CX3CR1 chemokine signaling which is involved in atherogenesis and promotes SMC proliferation. We investigated the role of IL-15 in intimal thickening after arterial injury. Treatment of serum-stimulated SMC with IL-15 in vitro attenuated proliferation and suppressed CX3CR1 and FKN mRNA expression. The role of endogenous IL-15 in vivo was investigated in injured carotid arteries of mice. Periadventitial arterial injury resulted in increased IL-15 expression in the media and neointima, paralleled by increased IL-15 receptor α expression. Blockade of endogenous IL-15 increased intimal thickening. FKN and CX3CR1 expression increased after injury and were further augmented after IL-15 blockade. These data suggest that endogenous IL-15 attenuated intimal thickening after arterial injury. The potential mechanism of action is suppression of CX3CR1 signaling

  10. Autocrine effects of visfatin on hepatocyte sensitivity to insulin action

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Škop, V.; Kontrová, K.; Zídek, Václav; Pravenec, Michal; Kazdová, L.; Mikulík, Karel; Sajdok, J.; Zídková, J.

    2010-01-01

    Roč. 59, č. 4 (2010), s. 615-618 ISSN 0862-8408 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR(CZ) IAA500110805; GA MŠk(CZ) ME08006; GA MZd(CZ) NR9387; GA MZd(CZ) NR9359 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z50110509; CEZ:AV0Z50200510 Keywords : Visfatin * RNA interference * insulin mimetic effects Subject RIV: FB - Endocrinology, Diabetology, Metabolism , Nutrition Impact factor: 1.646, year: 2010

  11. Neuronal, neurohormonal, and autocrine control of Xenopus melanotrope cell activity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roubos, E.W.; Scheenen, W.J.J.M.; Jenks, B.G.

    2005-01-01

    Amphibian pituitary melanotropes are used to investigate principles of neuroendocrine translation of neural input into hormonal output. Here, the steps in this translation process are outlined for the melanotrope cell of Xenopus laevis, with attention to external stimuli, neurochemical messengers,

  12. Autocrine regulation of human sperm motility by tachykinins

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pinto Francisco M

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background We examined the presence and function of tachykinins and the tachykinin-degrading enzymes neprilysin (NEP and neprilysin-2 (NEP2 in human spermatozoa. Methods Freshly ejaculated semen was collected from forty-eight normozoospermic human donors. We analyzed the expression of substance P, neurokinin A, neurokinin B, hemokinin-1, NEP and NEP2 in sperm cells by reverse-transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR, western blot and immunocytochemistry assays and evaluated the effects of the neprilysin and neprilysin-2 inhibitor phosphoramidon on sperm motility in the absence and presence of tachykinin receptor-selective antagonists. Sperm motility was measured using WHO procedures or computer-assisted sperm analysis (CASA. Results The mRNAs of the genes that encode substance P/neurokinin A (TAC1, neurokinin B (TAC3, hemokinin-1 (TAC4, neprilysin (MME and neprilysin-2 (MMEL1 were expressed in human sperm. Immunocytochemistry studies revealed that tachykinin and neprilysin proteins were present in spermatozoa and show specific and differential distributions. Phosphoramidon increased sperm progressive motility and its effects were reduced in the presence of the tachykinin receptor antagonists SR140333 (NK1 receptor-selective and SR48968 (NK2 receptor-selective but unmodified in the presence of SR142801 (NK3 receptor-selective. Conclusion These data show that tachykinins are present in human spermatozoa and participate in the regulation of sperm motility. Tachykinin activity is regulated, at least in part, by neprilysins.

  13. Autocrine regulation of human sperm motility by tachykinins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pinto, Francisco M; Ravina, Cristina G; Subiran, Nerea; Cejudo-Román, Antonio; Fernández-Sánchez, Manuel; Irazusta, Jon; Garrido, Nicolas; Candenas, Luz

    2010-08-26

    We examined the presence and function of tachykinins and the tachykinin-degrading enzymes neprilysin (NEP) and neprilysin-2 (NEP2) in human spermatozoa. Freshly ejaculated semen was collected from forty-eight normozoospermic human donors. We analyzed the expression of substance P, neurokinin A, neurokinin B, hemokinin-1, NEP and NEP2 in sperm cells by reverse-transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR), western blot and immunocytochemistry assays and evaluated the effects of the neprilysin and neprilysin-2 inhibitor phosphoramidon on sperm motility in the absence and presence of tachykinin receptor-selective antagonists. Sperm motility was measured using WHO procedures or computer-assisted sperm analysis (CASA). The mRNAs of the genes that encode substance P/neurokinin A (TAC1), neurokinin B (TAC3), hemokinin-1 (TAC4), neprilysin (MME) and neprilysin-2 (MMEL1) were expressed in human sperm. Immunocytochemistry studies revealed that tachykinin and neprilysin proteins were present in spermatozoa and show specific and differential distributions. Phosphoramidon increased sperm progressive motility and its effects were reduced in the presence of the tachykinin receptor antagonists SR140333 (NK1 receptor-selective) and SR48968 (NK2 receptor-selective) but unmodified in the presence of SR142801 (NK3 receptor-selective). These data show that tachykinins are present in human spermatozoa and participate in the regulation of sperm motility. Tachykinin activity is regulated, at least in part, by neprilysins.

  14. Predicting outdoor sound

    CERN Document Server

    Attenborough, Keith; Horoshenkov, Kirill

    2014-01-01

    1. Introduction  2. The Propagation of Sound Near Ground Surfaces in a Homogeneous Medium  3. Predicting the Acoustical Properties of Outdoor Ground Surfaces  4. Measurements of the Acoustical Properties of Ground Surfaces and Comparisons with Models  5. Predicting Effects of Source Characteristics on Outdoor Sound  6. Predictions, Approximations and Empirical Results for Ground Effect Excluding Meteorological Effects  7. Influence of Source Motion on Ground Effect and Diffraction  8. Predicting Effects of Mixed Impedance Ground  9. Predicting the Performance of Outdoor Noise Barriers  10. Predicting Effects of Vegetation, Trees and Turbulence  11. Analytical Approximations including Ground Effect, Refraction and Turbulence  12. Prediction Schemes  13. Predicting Sound in an Urban Environment.

  15. Applied predictive control

    CERN Document Server

    Sunan, Huang; Heng, Lee Tong

    2002-01-01

    The presence of considerable time delays in the dynamics of many industrial processes, leading to difficult problems in the associated closed-loop control systems, is a well-recognized phenomenon. The performance achievable in conventional feedback control systems can be significantly degraded if an industrial process has a relatively large time delay compared with the dominant time constant. Under these circumstances, advanced predictive control is necessary to improve the performance of the control system significantly. The book is a focused treatment of the subject matter, including the fundamentals and some state-of-the-art developments in the field of predictive control. Three main schemes for advanced predictive control are addressed in this book: • Smith Predictive Control; • Generalised Predictive Control; • a form of predictive control based on Finite Spectrum Assignment. A substantial part of the book addresses application issues in predictive control, providing several interesting case studie...

  16. Predictable or not predictable? The MOV question

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thibault, C.L.; Matzkiw, J.N.; Anderson, J.W.; Kessler, D.W.

    1994-01-01

    Over the past 8 years, the nuclear industry has struggled to understand the dynamic phenomena experienced during motor-operated valve (MOV) operation under differing flow conditions. For some valves and designs, their operational functionality has been found to be predictable; for others, unpredictable. Although much has been accomplished over this period of time, especially on modeling valve dynamics, the unpredictability of many valves and designs still exists. A few valve manufacturers are focusing on improving design and fabrication techniques to enhance product reliability and predictability. However, this approach does not address these issues for installed and inpredictable valves. This paper presents some of the more promising techniques that Wyle Laboratories has explored with potential for transforming unpredictable valves to predictable valves and for retrofitting installed MOVs. These techniques include optimized valve tolerancing, surrogated material evaluation, and enhanced surface treatments

  17. Determination of GP88 (progranulin) expression in breast tumor biopsies improves the risk predictive value of the Nottingham Prognostic Index.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serrero, Ginette; Hawkins, Douglas M; Bejarano, Pablo A; Ioffe, Olga; Tkaczuk, Katherine R; Elliott, Robert E; Head, Jonathan F; Phillips, Jeffrey; Godwin, Andrew K; Weaver, JoEllen; Hicks, David; Yue, Binbin

    2016-08-08

    The Nottingham Prognostic Index (NPI), which combines numerical values for nodal status, tumor size and histological grade, is used in the standard of care to provide predictive value information on post-surgery survival for patients with primary breast cancer. Attempts to improve the performance of the NPI algorithm have been carried out by testing the inclusion of other biomarker expression and morphological features such as vascular invasion. In the present study, we investigated whether expression of the autocrine growth and survival factor GP88 (progranulin), known to be overexpressed in breast cancer, would improve NPI's predictive value. We examined by immunohistochemistry (IHC) the GP88 expression in 508 cases of estrogen receptor positive invasive ductal carcinoma with known clinical outcomes and for which NPI had been determined. GP88 IHC expression was scored by two board certified pathologists and classified into two score groups of GP88 5.4) and GP88 expression showed that for patients within the same NPI subgroup, patients having tumors with a high GP88 expression (GP88 IHC score of 3+) had a worse DFS than patients with tumors that had a low GP88 expression (GP88 IHC score <3+). When adjusted for NPI, high GP88 score was significantly associated with recurrence with a hazard ratio of 3.30 (95 % CI 2.12 to 5.14). The data suggest that the determination of GP88 tumor expression at time of diagnosis for early stage breast cancer patients can provide additional survival information to that provided by NPI alone and thus may be useful for risk management of patients diagnosed with breast cancer.

  18. [Prediction in cerebrovascular diseases].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamann, G F

    2014-10-01

    Prediction of the outcome of cerebrovascular diseases or of the effects and complications of various forms of treatment are essential components of all stroke treatment regimens. This review focuses on the prediction of the stroke risk in primary prevention, the prediction of the risk of secondary stroke following a transient ischemic attack (TIA), the estimation of the outcome following manifest stroke and the treatment effects, the prediction of secondary cerebrovascular events and the prediction of vascular cognitive impairment following stroke. All predictive activities in cerebrovascular disease are hindered by the translation of predictive results from studies and patient populations to the individual patient. Future efforts in genetic analyses may be able to overcome this barrier and to enable individual prediction in the area of so-called personalized medicine. In all the various fields of prediction in cerebrovascular diseases, three major variables are always important: age of the patient, severity and subtype of the stroke. Increasing age, more severe stroke symptoms and the cardioembolic stroke subtype predict a poor outcome regarding both survival and permanent disability. This finding is somewhat banal and will therefore never replace the well experienced clinician judging the chances of a patient and taking into account the personal situation of this patient, e.g. for initiation of a rehabilitation program. Besides the individualized prediction, in times of restricted economic resources and increasing tendency to clarify questions of medical treatment in court, it seems unavoidable to use prediction in economic and medicolegal interaction with clinical medicine. This tendency will be accompanied by difficult ethical problems which neurologists must be aware of. Improved prediction should not be used to allocate or restrict resources or to restrict medically indicated treatment.

  19. Predictive systems ecology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, Matthew R; Bithell, Mike; Cornell, Stephen J; Dall, Sasha R X; Díaz, Sandra; Emmott, Stephen; Ernande, Bruno; Grimm, Volker; Hodgson, David J; Lewis, Simon L; Mace, Georgina M; Morecroft, Michael; Moustakas, Aristides; Murphy, Eugene; Newbold, Tim; Norris, K J; Petchey, Owen; Smith, Matthew; Travis, Justin M J; Benton, Tim G

    2013-11-22

    Human societies, and their well-being, depend to a significant extent on the state of the ecosystems that surround them. These ecosystems are changing rapidly usually in response to anthropogenic changes in the environment. To determine the likely impact of environmental change on ecosystems and the best ways to manage them, it would be desirable to be able to predict their future states. We present a proposal to develop the paradigm of predictive systems ecology, explicitly to understand and predict the properties and behaviour of ecological systems. We discuss the necessary and desirable features of predictive systems ecology models. There are places where predictive systems ecology is already being practised and we summarize a range of terrestrial and marine examples. Significant challenges remain but we suggest that ecology would benefit both as a scientific discipline and increase its impact in society if it were to embrace the need to become more predictive.

  20. Solar Cycle Predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pesnell, William Dean

    2012-01-01

    Solar cycle predictions are needed to plan long-term space missions; just like weather predictions are needed to plan the launch. Fleets of satellites circle the Earth collecting many types of science data, protecting astronauts, and relaying information. All of these satellites are sensitive at some level to solar cycle effects. Predictions of drag on LEO spacecraft are one of the most important. Launching a satellite with less propellant can mean a higher orbit, but unanticipated solar activity and increased drag can make that a Pyrrhic victory as you consume the reduced propellant load more rapidly. Energetic events at the Sun can produce crippling radiation storms that endanger all assets in space. Solar cycle predictions also anticipate the shortwave emissions that cause degradation of solar panels. Testing solar dynamo theories by quantitative predictions of what will happen in 5-20 years is the next arena for solar cycle predictions. A summary and analysis of 75 predictions of the amplitude of the upcoming Solar Cycle 24 is presented. The current state of solar cycle predictions and some anticipations how those predictions could be made more accurate in the future will be discussed.

  1. Is Time Predictability Quantifiable?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schoeberl, Martin

    2012-01-01

    Computer architects and researchers in the realtime domain start to investigate processors and architectures optimized for real-time systems. Optimized for real-time systems means time predictable, i.e., architectures where it is possible to statically derive a tight bound of the worst......-case execution time. To compare different approaches we would like to quantify time predictability. That means we need to measure time predictability. In this paper we discuss the different approaches for these measurements and conclude that time predictability is practically not quantifiable. We can only...... compare the worst-case execution time bounds of different architectures....

  2. Archaeological predictive model set.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-03-01

    This report is the documentation for Task 7 of the Statewide Archaeological Predictive Model Set. The goal of this project is to : develop a set of statewide predictive models to assist the planning of transportation projects. PennDOT is developing t...

  3. Seismology for rockburst prediction.

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    De Beer, W

    2000-02-01

    Full Text Available . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 3.1.3.2 Time to failure prediction algorithm . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 3.1.4 Testing for deterministic components of time series of interest, noise reduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 3... component of seismic time series, noise reduction and limits of predictability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79 A3.1 False nearest strands...

  4. The Prediction Value

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koster, M.; Kurz, S.; Lindner, I.; Napel, S.

    2013-01-01

    We introduce the prediction value (PV) as a measure of players’ informational importance in probabilistic TU games. The latter combine a standard TU game and a probability distribution over the set of coalitions. Player i’s prediction value equals the difference between the conditional expectations

  5. Predicting AD conversion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Liu, Yawu; Mattila, Jussi; Ruiz, Miguel �ngel Mu�oz

    2013-01-01

    To compare the accuracies of predicting AD conversion by using a decision support system (PredictAD tool) and current research criteria of prodromal AD as identified by combinations of episodic memory impairment of hippocampal type and visual assessment of medial temporal lobe atrophy (MTA) on MRI...

  6. Predictability of Stock Returns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmet Sekreter

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Predictability of stock returns has been shown by empirical studies over time. This article collects the most important theories on forecasting stock returns and investigates the factors that affecting behavior of the stocks’ prices and the market as a whole. Estimation of the factors and the way of estimation are the key issues of predictability of stock returns.

  7. 'Red Flag' Predictions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hallin, Carina Antonia; Andersen, Torben Juul; Tveterås, Sigbjørn

    -generation prediction markets and outline its unique features as a third-generation prediction market. It is argued that frontline employees gain deep insights when they execute operational activities on an ongoing basis in the organization. The experiential learning from close interaction with internal and external...

  8. Cultural Resource Predictive Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-10-01

    refining formal, inductive predictive models is the quality of the archaeological and environmental data. To build models efficiently, relevant...geomorphology, and historic information . Lessons Learned: The original model was focused on the identification of prehistoric resources. This...system but uses predictive modeling informally . For example, there is no probability for buried archaeological deposits on the Burton Mesa, but there is

  9. Protein Sorting Prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Henrik

    2017-01-01

    Many computational methods are available for predicting protein sorting in bacteria. When comparing them, it is important to know that they can be grouped into three fundamentally different approaches: signal-based, global-property-based and homology-based prediction. In this chapter, the strengths...

  10. Predicting occupational lung diseases

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Suarthana, E.

    2008-01-01

    This thesis aims at demonstrating the development, validation, and application of prediction models for occupational lung diseases. Prediction models are developed to estimate an individual’s probability of the presence or future likelihood of occurrence of an outcome (i.e. disease of interest or

  11. Predicting protein structure classes from function predictions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sommer, I.; Rahnenfuhrer, J.; de Lichtenberg, Ulrik

    2004-01-01

    membership. Even for structural families of small size, family members receive significantly higher scores. For some examples, we show that the relevant functional features identified by this method are biologically meaningful. The proposed approach can be used to improve existing sequence......We introduce a new approach to using the information contained in sequence-to-function prediction data in order to recognize protein template classes, a critical step in predicting protein structure. The data on which our method is based comprise probabilities of functional categories; for given...... query sequences these probabilities are obtained by a neural net that has previously been trained on a variety of functionally important features. On a training set of sequences we assess the relevance of individual functional categories for identifying a given structural family. Using a combination...

  12. Evaluating prediction uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McKay, M.D.

    1995-03-01

    The probability distribution of a model prediction is presented as a proper basis for evaluating the uncertainty in a model prediction that arises from uncertainty in input values. Determination of important model inputs and subsets of inputs is made through comparison of the prediction distribution with conditional prediction probability distributions. Replicated Latin hypercube sampling and variance ratios are used in estimation of the distributions and in construction of importance indicators. The assumption of a linear relation between model output and inputs is not necessary for the indicators to be effective. A sequential methodology which includes an independent validation step is applied in two analysis applications to select subsets of input variables which are the dominant causes of uncertainty in the model predictions. Comparison with results from methods which assume linearity shows how those methods may fail. Finally, suggestions for treating structural uncertainty for submodels are presented

  13. Ground motion predictions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Loux, P.C.

    1969-01-01

    Nuclear generated ground motion is defined and then related to the physical parameters that cause it. Techniques employed for prediction of ground motion peak amplitude, frequency spectra and response spectra are explored, with initial emphasis on the analysis of data collected at the Nevada Test Site (NTS). NTS postshot measurements are compared with pre-shot predictions. Applicability of these techniques to new areas, for example, Plowshare sites, must be questioned. Fortunately, the Atomic Energy Commission is sponsoring complementary studies to improve prediction capabilities primarily in new locations outside the NTS region. Some of these are discussed in the light of anomalous seismic behavior, and comparisons are given showing theoretical versus experimental results. In conclusion, current ground motion prediction techniques are applied to events off the NTS. Predictions are compared with measurements for the event Faultless and for the Plowshare events, Gasbuggy, Cabriolet, and Buggy I. (author)

  14. Structural prediction in aphasia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tessa Warren

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available There is considerable evidence that young healthy comprehenders predict the structure of upcoming material, and that their processing is facilitated when they encounter material matching those predictions (e.g., Staub & Clifton, 2006; Yoshida, Dickey & Sturt, 2013. However, less is known about structural prediction in aphasia. There is evidence that lexical prediction may be spared in aphasia (Dickey et al., 2014; Love & Webb, 1977; cf. Mack et al, 2013. However, predictive mechanisms supporting facilitated lexical access may not necessarily support structural facilitation. Given that many people with aphasia (PWA exhibit syntactic deficits (e.g. Goodglass, 1993, PWA with such impairments may not engage in structural prediction. However, recent evidence suggests that some PWA may indeed predict upcoming structure (Hanne, Burchert, De Bleser, & Vashishth, 2015. Hanne et al. tracked the eyes of PWA (n=8 with sentence-comprehension deficits while they listened to reversible subject-verb-object (SVO and object-verb-subject (OVS sentences in German, in a sentence-picture matching task. Hanne et al. manipulated case and number marking to disambiguate the sentences’ structure. Gazes to an OVS or SVO picture during the unfolding of a sentence were assumed to indicate prediction of the structure congruent with that picture. According to this measure, the PWA’s structural prediction was impaired compared to controls, but they did successfully predict upcoming structure when morphosyntactic cues were strong and unambiguous. Hanne et al.’s visual-world evidence is suggestive, but their forced-choice sentence-picture matching task places tight constraints on possible structural predictions. Clearer evidence of structural prediction would come from paradigms where the content of upcoming material is not as constrained. The current study used self-paced reading study to examine structural prediction among PWA in less constrained contexts. PWA (n=17 who

  15. Prediction of bull fertility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Utt, Matthew D

    2016-06-01

    Prediction of male fertility is an often sought-after endeavor for many species of domestic animals. This review will primarily focus on providing some examples of dependent and independent variables to stimulate thought about the approach and methodology of identifying the most appropriate of those variables to predict bull (bovine) fertility. Although the list of variables will continue to grow with advancements in science, the principles behind making predictions will likely not change significantly. The basic principle of prediction requires identifying a dependent variable that is an estimate of fertility and an independent variable or variables that may be useful in predicting the fertility estimate. Fertility estimates vary in which parts of the process leading to conception that they infer about and the amount of variation that influences the estimate and the uncertainty thereof. The list of potential independent variables can be divided into competence of sperm based on their performance in bioassays or direct measurement of sperm attributes. A good prediction will use a sample population of bulls that is representative of the population to which an inference will be made. Both dependent and independent variables should have a dynamic range in their values. Careful selection of independent variables includes reasonable measurement repeatability and minimal correlation among variables. Proper estimation and having an appreciation of the degree of uncertainty of dependent and independent variables are crucial for using predictions to make decisions regarding bull fertility. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. Bootstrap prediction and Bayesian prediction under misspecified models

    OpenAIRE

    Fushiki, Tadayoshi

    2005-01-01

    We consider a statistical prediction problem under misspecified models. In a sense, Bayesian prediction is an optimal prediction method when an assumed model is true. Bootstrap prediction is obtained by applying Breiman's `bagging' method to a plug-in prediction. Bootstrap prediction can be considered to be an approximation to the Bayesian prediction under the assumption that the model is true. However, in applications, there are frequently deviations from the assumed model. In this paper, bo...

  17. Wind power prediction models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levy, R.; Mcginness, H.

    1976-01-01

    Investigations were performed to predict the power available from the wind at the Goldstone, California, antenna site complex. The background for power prediction was derived from a statistical evaluation of available wind speed data records at this location and at nearby locations similarly situated within the Mojave desert. In addition to a model for power prediction over relatively long periods of time, an interim simulation model that produces sample wind speeds is described. The interim model furnishes uncorrelated sample speeds at hourly intervals that reproduce the statistical wind distribution at Goldstone. A stochastic simulation model to provide speed samples representative of both the statistical speed distributions and correlations is also discussed.

  18. Predictable return distributions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Thomas Quistgaard

    This paper provides detailed insights into predictability of the entire stock and bond return distribution through the use of quantile regression. This allows us to examine speci…c parts of the return distribution such as the tails or the center, and for a suf…ciently …ne grid of quantiles we can...... trace out the entire distribution. A univariate quantile regression model is used to examine stock and bond return distributions individually, while a multivariate model is used to capture their joint distribution. An empirical analysis on US data shows that certain parts of the return distributions...... are predictable as a function of economic state variables. The results are, however, very different for stocks and bonds. The state variables primarily predict only location shifts in the stock return distribution, while they also predict changes in higher-order moments in the bond return distribution. Out...

  19. Methane prediction in collieries

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Creedy, DP

    1999-06-01

    Full Text Available The primary aim of the project was to assess the current status of research on methane emission prediction for collieries in South Africa in comparison with methods used and advances achieved elsewhere in the world....

  20. Genomic Prediction in Barley

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Edriss, Vahid; Cericola, Fabio; Jensen, Jens D

    2015-01-01

    Genomic prediction uses markers (SNPs) across the whole genome to predict individual breeding values at an early growth stage potentially before large scale phenotyping. One of the applications of genomic prediction in plant breeding is to identify the best individual candidate lines to contribute...... to next generation. The main goal of this study was to see the potential of using genomic prediction in a commercial Barley breeding program. The data used in this study was from Nordic Seed company which is located in Denmark. Around 350 advanced lines were genotyped with 9K Barely chip from Illumina....... Traits used in this study were grain yield, plant height and heading date. Heading date is number days it takes after 1st June for plant to head. Heritabilities were 0.33, 0.44 and 0.48 for yield, height and heading, respectively for the average of nine plots. The GBLUP model was used for genomic...

  1. CMAQ predicted concentration files

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — CMAQ predicted ozone. This dataset is associated with the following publication: Gantt, B., G. Sarwar, J. Xing, H. Simon, D. Schwede, B. Hutzell, R. Mathur, and A....

  2. CMAQ predicted concentration files

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — model predicted concentrations. This dataset is associated with the following publication: Muñiz-Unamunzaga, M., R. Borge, G. Sarwar, B. Gantt, D. de la Paz, C....

  3. Stuck pipe prediction

    KAUST Repository

    Alzahrani, Majed

    2016-03-10

    Disclosed are various embodiments for a prediction application to predict a stuck pipe. A linear regression model is generated from hook load readings at corresponding bit depths. A current hook load reading at a current bit depth is compared with a normal hook load reading from the linear regression model. A current hook load greater than a normal hook load for a given bit depth indicates the likelihood of a stuck pipe.

  4. Genomic prediction using subsampling

    OpenAIRE

    Xavier, Alencar; Xu, Shizhong; Muir, William; Rainey, Katy Martin

    2017-01-01

    Background Genome-wide assisted selection is a critical tool for the?genetic improvement of plants and animals. Whole-genome regression models in Bayesian framework represent the main family of prediction methods. Fitting such models with a large number of observations involves a prohibitive computational burden. We propose the use of subsampling bootstrap Markov chain in genomic prediction. Such method consists of fitting whole-genome regression models by subsampling observations in each rou...

  5. Predicting Ideological Prejudice

    OpenAIRE

    Brandt, Mark J.

    2017-01-01

    A major shortcoming of current models of ideological prejudice is that although they can anticipate the direction of the association between participants? ideology and their prejudice against a range of target groups, they cannot predict the size of this association. I developed and tested models that can make specific size predictions for this association. A quantitative model that used the perceived ideology of the target group as the primary predictor of the ideology-prejudice relationship...

  6. Predicting Ideological Prejudice

    OpenAIRE

    Brandt, Mark

    2016-01-01

    A major shortcoming of current models of ideological prejudice is that although they can anticipate the direction of the association between participants’ ideology and their prejudice against a range of target groups, they cannot predict the size of this association. I developed and tested models that can make specific size predictions. A quantitative model that used the perceived ideology of the target group as the primary predictor of the ideology-prejudice relationship was developed with a...

  7. Predicting ideological prejudice

    OpenAIRE

    Brandt, M.J.

    2018-01-01

    A major shortcoming of current models of ideological prejudice is that although they can anticipate the direction of the association between participants’ ideology and their prejudice against a range of target groups, they cannot predict the size of this association. I developed and tested models that can make specific size predictions for this association. A quantitative model that used the perceived ideology of the target group as the primary predictor of the ideology-prejudice relationship...

  8. Multimodal Emoji Prediction

    OpenAIRE

    Barbieri, Francesco; Ballesteros, Miguel; Ronzano, Francesco; Saggion, Horacio

    2018-01-01

    Emojis are small images that are commonly included in social media text messages. The combination of visual and textual content in the same message builds up a modern way of communication, that automatic systems are not used to deal with. In this paper we extend recent advances in emoji prediction by putting forward a multimodal approach that is able to predict emojis in Instagram posts. Instagram posts are composed of pictures together with texts which sometimes include emojis. We show that ...

  9. Genomic prediction using subsampling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xavier, Alencar; Xu, Shizhong; Muir, William; Rainey, Katy Martin

    2017-03-24

    Genome-wide assisted selection is a critical tool for the genetic improvement of plants and animals. Whole-genome regression models in Bayesian framework represent the main family of prediction methods. Fitting such models with a large number of observations involves a prohibitive computational burden. We propose the use of subsampling bootstrap Markov chain in genomic prediction. Such method consists of fitting whole-genome regression models by subsampling observations in each round of a Markov Chain Monte Carlo. We evaluated the effect of subsampling bootstrap on prediction and computational parameters. Across datasets, we observed an optimal subsampling proportion of observations around 50% with replacement, and around 33% without replacement. Subsampling provided a substantial decrease in computation time, reducing the time to fit the model by half. On average, losses on predictive properties imposed by subsampling were negligible, usually below 1%. For each dataset, an optimal subsampling point that improves prediction properties was observed, but the improvements were also negligible. Combining subsampling with Gibbs sampling is an interesting ensemble algorithm. The investigation indicates that the subsampling bootstrap Markov chain algorithm substantially reduces computational burden associated with model fitting, and it may slightly enhance prediction properties.

  10. Empirical ground motion prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. J. Archuleta

    1994-06-01

    Full Text Available New methods of site-specific ground motion prediction in the time and frequency domains are presented. A large earthquake is simulated as a composite (linear combination of observed small earthquakes (subevents assuming Aki-Brune functional models of the source time functions (spectra. Source models incorporate basic scaling relations between source and spectral parameters. Ground motion predictions are consistent with the entire observed seismic spectrum from the lowest to the highest frequencies. These methods are designed to use all the available empirical Green’s functions (or any subset of observations at a site. Thus a prediction is not biased by a single record, and different possible source-receiver paths are taken into account. Directivity is accounted for by adjusting the apparent source duration at each site. Our time-series prediction algorithm is based on determination of a non-uniform distribution of rupture times of subevents. By introducing a specific rupture velocity we avoid the major problem of deficiency of predictions around the main event's corner frequency. A novel notion of partial coherence allows us to sum subevents' amplitude spectra directly without using any information on their rupture times and phase histories. Predictions by this spectral method are not Jependent on details of rupture nucleation and propagation, location of asperities and other predominantly phase-affecting factors, responsible for uncertainties in time-domain simulations.

  11. Deep Visual Attention Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Wenguan; Shen, Jianbing

    2018-05-01

    In this work, we aim to predict human eye fixation with view-free scenes based on an end-to-end deep learning architecture. Although Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) have made substantial improvement on human attention prediction, it is still needed to improve CNN based attention models by efficiently leveraging multi-scale features. Our visual attention network is proposed to capture hierarchical saliency information from deep, coarse layers with global saliency information to shallow, fine layers with local saliency response. Our model is based on a skip-layer network structure, which predicts human attention from multiple convolutional layers with various reception fields. Final saliency prediction is achieved via the cooperation of those global and local predictions. Our model is learned in a deep supervision manner, where supervision is directly fed into multi-level layers, instead of previous approaches of providing supervision only at the output layer and propagating this supervision back to earlier layers. Our model thus incorporates multi-level saliency predictions within a single network, which significantly decreases the redundancy of previous approaches of learning multiple network streams with different input scales. Extensive experimental analysis on various challenging benchmark datasets demonstrate our method yields state-of-the-art performance with competitive inference time.

  12. Predictability of geomagnetic series

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Bellanger

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to lead a practical, rational and rigorous approach concerning what can be done, based on the knowledge of magnetic series, in the field of prediction of the extreme geomagnetic events. We compare the magnetic vector differential at different locations computed with different resolutions, from an entire day to minutes. We study the classical correlations and the simplest possible prediction scheme to conclude a high level of predictability of the magnetic vector variation. The results obtained are far from a random guessing: the error diagrams are either comparable with earthquake prediction studies or out-perform them when the minute sampling is used in accounting for hourly magnetic vector variation. We demonstrate how the magnetic extreme events can be predicted from the hourly value of the magnetic variation with a lead time of several hours. We compute the 2-D empirical distribution of consecutive values of the magnetic vector variation for the estimation of conditional probabilities of different types. The achieved results encourage further development of the approach to prediction of the extreme geomagnetic events.

    Key words. Ionosphere (modeling and forecasting – Magnetospheric physics (storms and substorms

  13. Cytomics in predictive medicine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tarnok, Attila; Valet, Guenther K.

    2004-07-01

    Predictive Medicine aims at the detection of changes in patient's disease state prior to the manifestation of deterioration or improvement of the current status. Patient-specific, disease-course predictions with >95% or >99% accuracy during therapy would be highly valuable for everyday medicine. If these predictors were available, disease aggravation or progression, frequently accompanied by irreversible tissue damage or therapeutic side effects, could then potentially be avoided by early preventive therapy. The molecular analysis of heterogeneous cellular systems (Cytomics) by cytometry in conjunction with pattern-oriented bioinformatic analysis of the multiparametric cytometric and other data provides a promising approach to individualized or personalized medical treatment or disease management. Predictive medicine is best implemented by cell oriented measurements e.g. by flow or image cytometry. Cell oriented gene or protein arrays as well as bead arrays for the capture of solute molecules form serum, plasma, urine or liquor are equally of high value. Clinical applications of predictive medicine by Cytomics will include multi organ failure in sepsis or non infectious posttraumatic shock in intensive care, or the pretherapeutic identification of high risk patients in cancer cytostatic. Early individualized therapy may provide better survival chances for individual patient at concomitant cost containment. Predictive medicine guided early reduction or stop of therapy may lower or abrogate potential therapeutic side effects. Further important aspects of predictive medicine concern the preoperative identification of patients with a tendency for postoperative complications or coronary artery disease patients with an increased tendency for restenosis. As a consequence, better patient care and new forms of inductive scientific hypothesis development based on the interpretation of predictive data patterns are at reach.

  14. Transionospheric propagation predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klobucher, J. A.; Basu, S.; Basu, S.; Bernhardt, P. A.; Davies, K.; Donatelli, D. E.; Fremouw, E. J.; Goodman, J. M.; Hartmann, G. K.; Leitinger, R.

    1979-01-01

    The current status and future prospects of the capability to make transionospheric propagation predictions are addressed, highlighting the effects of the ionized media, which dominate for frequencies below 1 to 3 GHz, depending upon the state of the ionosphere and the elevation angle through the Earth-space path. The primary concerns are the predictions of time delay of signal modulation (group path delay) and of radio wave scintillation. Progress in these areas is strongly tied to knowledge of variable structures in the ionosphere ranging from the large scale (thousands of kilometers in horizontal extent) to the fine scale (kilometer size). Ionospheric variability and the relative importance of various mechanisms responsible for the time histories observed in total electron content (TEC), proportional to signal group delay, and in irregularity formation are discussed in terms of capability to make both short and long term predictions. The data base upon which predictions are made is examined for its adequacy, and the prospects for prediction improvements by more theoretical studies as well as by increasing the available statistical data base are examined.

  15. Tide Predictions, California, 2014, NOAA

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The predictions from the web based NOAA Tide Predictions are based upon the latest information available as of the date of the user's request. Tide predictions...

  16. Inverse and Predictive Modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Syracuse, Ellen Marie [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2017-09-27

    The LANL Seismo-Acoustic team has a strong capability in developing data-driven models that accurately predict a variety of observations. These models range from the simple – one-dimensional models that are constrained by a single dataset and can be used for quick and efficient predictions – to the complex – multidimensional models that are constrained by several types of data and result in more accurate predictions. Team members typically build models of geophysical characteristics of Earth and source distributions at scales of 1 to 1000s of km, the techniques used are applicable for other types of physical characteristics at an even greater range of scales. The following cases provide a snapshot of some of the modeling work done by the Seismo- Acoustic team at LANL.

  17. Predicting tile drainage discharge

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Iversen, Bo Vangsø; Kjærgaard, Charlotte; Petersen, Rasmus Jes

    More than 50 % of Danish agricultural areas are expected to be artificial tile drained. Transport of water and nutrients through the tile drain system to the aquatic environment is expected to be significant. For different mitigation strategies such as constructed wetlands an exact knowledge...... of the water load coming from the tile drainage system is therefore essential. This work aims at predicting tile drainage discharge using dynamic as well as a statistical predictive models. A large dataset of historical tile drain discharge data, daily discharge values as well as yearly average values were...... used in the analysis. For the dynamic modelling, a simple linear reservoir model was used where different outlets in the model represented tile drain as well as groundwater discharge outputs. This modelling was based on daily measured tile drain discharge values. The statistical predictive model...

  18. Predicting Ideological Prejudice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brandt, Mark J

    2017-06-01

    A major shortcoming of current models of ideological prejudice is that although they can anticipate the direction of the association between participants' ideology and their prejudice against a range of target groups, they cannot predict the size of this association. I developed and tested models that can make specific size predictions for this association. A quantitative model that used the perceived ideology of the target group as the primary predictor of the ideology-prejudice relationship was developed with a representative sample of Americans ( N = 4,940) and tested against models using the perceived status of and choice to belong to the target group as predictors. In four studies (total N = 2,093), ideology-prejudice associations were estimated, and these observed estimates were compared with the models' predictions. The model that was based only on perceived ideology was the most parsimonious with the smallest errors.

  19. Permeability prediction in chalks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Alam, Mohammad Monzurul; Fabricius, Ida Lykke; Prasad, Manika

    2011-01-01

    The velocity of elastic waves is the primary datum available for acquiring information about subsurface characteristics such as lithology and porosity. Cheap and quick (spatial coverage, ease of measurement) information of permeability can be achieved, if sonic velocity is used for permeability...... prediction, so we have investigated the use of velocity data to predict permeability. The compressional velocity fromwireline logs and core plugs of the chalk reservoir in the South Arne field, North Sea, has been used for this study. We compared various methods of permeability prediction from velocities....... The relationships between permeability and porosity from core data were first examined using Kozeny’s equation. The data were analyzed for any correlations to the specific surface of the grain, Sg, and to the hydraulic property defined as the flow zone indicator (FZI). These two methods use two different approaches...

  20. Predicting the Sunspot Cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hathaway, David H.

    2009-01-01

    The 11-year sunspot cycle was discovered by an amateur astronomer in 1844. Visual and photographic observations of sunspots have been made by both amateurs and professionals over the last 400 years. These observations provide key statistical information about the sunspot cycle that do allow for predictions of future activity. However, sunspots and the sunspot cycle are magnetic in nature. For the last 100 years these magnetic measurements have been acquired and used exclusively by professional astronomers to gain new information about the nature of the solar activity cycle. Recently, magnetic dynamo models have evolved to the stage where they can assimilate past data and provide predictions. With the advent of the Internet and open data policies, amateurs now have equal access to the same data used by professionals and equal opportunities to contribute (but, alas, without pay). This talk will describe some of the more useful prediction techniques and reveal what they say about the intensity of the upcoming sunspot cycle.

  1. Predictive maintenance primer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Flude, J.W.; Nicholas, J.R.

    1991-04-01

    This Predictive Maintenance Primer provides utility plant personnel with a single-source reference to predictive maintenance analysis methods and technologies used successfully by utilities and other industries. It is intended to be a ready reference to personnel considering starting, expanding or improving a predictive maintenance program. This Primer includes a discussion of various analysis methods and how they overlap and interrelate. Additionally, eighteen predictive maintenance technologies are discussed in sufficient detail for the user to evaluate the potential of each technology for specific applications. This document is designed to allow inclusion of additional technologies in the future. To gather the information necessary to create this initial Primer the Nuclear Maintenance Applications Center (NMAC) collected experience data from eighteen utilities plus other industry and government sources. NMAC also contacted equipment manufacturers for information pertaining to equipment utilization, maintenance, and technical specifications. The Primer includes a discussion of six methods used by analysts to study predictive maintenance data. These are: trend analysis; pattern recognition; correlation; test against limits or ranges; relative comparison data; and statistical process analysis. Following the analysis methods discussions are detailed descriptions for eighteen technologies analysts have found useful for predictive maintenance programs at power plants and other industrial facilities. Each technology subchapter has a description of the operating principles involved in the technology, a listing of plant equipment where the technology can be applied, and a general description of the monitoring equipment. Additionally, these descriptions include a discussion of results obtained from actual equipment users and preferred analysis techniques to be used on data obtained from the technology. 5 refs., 30 figs

  2. Zephyr - the prediction models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Torben Skov; Madsen, Henrik; Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg

    2001-01-01

    utilities as partners and users. The new models are evaluated for five wind farms in Denmark as well as one wind farm in Spain. It is shown that the predictions based on conditional parametric models are superior to the predictions obatined by state-of-the-art parametric models.......This paper briefly describes new models and methods for predicationg the wind power output from wind farms. The system is being developed in a project which has the research organization Risø and the department of Informatics and Mathematical Modelling (IMM) as the modelling team and all the Danish...

  3. Towards Predictive Association Theories

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kontogeorgis, Georgios; Tsivintzelis, Ioannis; Michelsen, Michael Locht

    2011-01-01

    . We use the term predictive in two situations: (i) with no use of binary interaction parameters, and (ii) multicomponent calculations using binary interaction parameters based solely on binary data. It is shown that the CPA equation of state can satisfactorily predict CO2–water–glycols–alkanes VLE...... and water–MEG–aliphatic hydrocarbons LLE using interaction parameters obtained from the binary data alone. Moreover, it is demonstrated that the NRHB equation of state is a versatile tool which can be employed equally well to mixtures with pharmaceuticals and solvents, including mixed solvents, as well...

  4. Basis of predictive mycology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dantigny, Philippe; Guilmart, Audrey; Bensoussan, Maurice

    2005-04-15

    For over 20 years, predictive microbiology focused on food-pathogenic bacteria. Few studies concerned modelling fungal development. On one hand, most of food mycologists are not familiar with modelling techniques; on the other hand, people involved in modelling are developing tools dedicated to bacteria. Therefore, there is a tendency to extend the use of models that were developed for bacteria to moulds. However, some mould specificities should be taken into account. The use of specific models for predicting germination and growth of fungi was advocated previously []. This paper provides a short review of fungal modelling studies.

  5. Linguistic Structure Prediction

    CERN Document Server

    Smith, Noah A

    2011-01-01

    A major part of natural language processing now depends on the use of text data to build linguistic analyzers. We consider statistical, computational approaches to modeling linguistic structure. We seek to unify across many approaches and many kinds of linguistic structures. Assuming a basic understanding of natural language processing and/or machine learning, we seek to bridge the gap between the two fields. Approaches to decoding (i.e., carrying out linguistic structure prediction) and supervised and unsupervised learning of models that predict discrete structures as outputs are the focus. W

  6. Predicting Marital Therapy Dropouts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allgood, Scot M.; Crane, D. Russell

    1991-01-01

    Attempted to predict therapy dropouts using data gathered at marital therapy intake with 474 couples seeking marital therapy who attended at least 1 session. Significant predictors of dropping out included having less than two children, having a male intake clinician, and presenting problem relating only to one spouse. (Author/ABL)

  7. Predicting Sustainable Work Behavior

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hald, Kim Sundtoft

    2013-01-01

    Sustainable work behavior is an important issue for operations managers – it has implications for most outcomes of OM. This research explores the antecedents of sustainable work behavior. It revisits and extends the sociotechnical model developed by Brown et al. (2000) on predicting safe behavior...... condition influence their sustainable work behavior. A new definition of sustainable work behavior is proposed....

  8. Vertebral Fracture Prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    2008-01-01

    Vertebral Fracture Prediction A method of processing data derived from an image of at least part of a spine is provided for estimating the risk of a future fracture in vertebraeof the spine. Position data relating to at least four neighbouring vertebrae of the spine is processed. The curvature...

  9. Predicting Intrinsic Motivation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martens, Rob; Kirschner, Paul A.

    2004-01-01

    Intrinsic motivation can be predicted from participants' perceptions of the social environment and the task environment (Ryan & Deci, 2000)in terms of control, relatedness and competence. To determine the degree of independence of these factors 251 students in higher vocational education (physiotherapy and hotel management) indicated the…

  10. Gate valve performance prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harrison, D.H.; Damerell, P.S.; Wang, J.K.; Kalsi, M.S.; Wolfe, K.J.

    1994-01-01

    The Electric Power Research Institute is carrying out a program to improve the performance prediction methods for motor-operated valves. As part of this program, an analytical method to predict the stem thrust required to stroke a gate valve has been developed and has been assessed against data from gate valve tests. The method accounts for the loads applied to the disc by fluid flow and for the detailed mechanical interaction of the stem, disc, guides, and seats. To support development of the method, two separate-effects test programs were carried out. One test program determined friction coefficients for contacts between gate valve parts by using material specimens in controlled environments. The other test program investigated the interaction of the stem, disc, guides, and seat using a special fixture with full-sized gate valve parts. The method has been assessed against flow-loop and in-plant test data. These tests include valve sizes from 3 to 18 in. and cover a considerable range of flow, temperature, and differential pressure. Stem thrust predictions for the method bound measured results. In some cases, the bounding predictions are substantially higher than the stem loads required for valve operation, as a result of the bounding nature of the friction coefficients in the method

  11. Predicting Pilot Retention

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-06-15

    forever… Gig ‘Em! Dale W. Stanley III vii Table of Contents Page Acknowledgments...over the last 20 years. Airbus predicted that these trends would continue as emerging economies , especially in Asia, were creating a fast growing...US economy , pay differential and hiring by the major airlines contributed most to the decision to separate from the Air Force (Fullerton, 2003: 354

  12. Predicting coronary heart disease

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sillesen, Henrik; Fuster, Valentin

    2012-01-01

    Atherosclerosis is the leading cause of death and disabling disease. Whereas risk factors are well known and constitute therapeutic targets, they are not useful for prediction of risk of future myocardial infarction, stroke, or death. Therefore, methods to identify atherosclerosis itself have bee...

  13. Prediction method abstracts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1994-12-31

    This conference was held December 4--8, 1994 in Asilomar, California. The purpose of this meeting was to provide a forum for exchange of state-of-the-art information concerning the prediction of protein structure. Attention if focused on the following: comparative modeling; sequence to fold assignment; and ab initio folding.

  14. Predicting visibility of aircraft.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watson, Andrew; Ramirez, Cesar V; Salud, Ellen

    2009-05-20

    Visual detection of aircraft by human observers is an important element of aviation safety. To assess and ensure safety, it would be useful to be able to be able to predict the visibility, to a human observer, of an aircraft of specified size, shape, distance, and coloration. Examples include assuring safe separation among aircraft and between aircraft and unmanned vehicles, design of airport control towers, and efforts to enhance or suppress the visibility of military and rescue vehicles. We have recently developed a simple metric of pattern visibility, the Spatial Standard Observer (SSO). In this report we examine whether the SSO can predict visibility of simulated aircraft images. We constructed a set of aircraft images from three-dimensional computer graphic models, and measured the luminance contrast threshold for each image from three human observers. The data were well predicted by the SSO. Finally, we show how to use the SSO to predict visibility range for aircraft of arbitrary size, shape, distance, and coloration.

  15. Predicting ideological prejudice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brandt, M.J.

    2018-01-01

    A major shortcoming of current models of ideological prejudice is that although they can anticipate the direction of the association between participants’ ideology and their prejudice against a range of target groups, they cannot predict the size of this association. I developed and tested models

  16. Predicting Reasoning from Memory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heit, Evan; Hayes, Brett K.

    2011-01-01

    In an effort to assess the relations between reasoning and memory, in 8 experiments, the authors examined how well responses on an inductive reasoning task are predicted from responses on a recognition memory task for the same picture stimuli. Across several experimental manipulations, such as varying study time, presentation frequency, and the…

  17. Steering smog prediction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R. van Liere (Robert); J.J. van Wijk (Jack)

    1997-01-01

    textabstractThe use of computational steering for smog prediction is described. This application is representative for many underlying issues found in steering high performance applications: high computing times, large data sets, and many different input parameters. After a short description of the

  18. Predicting Lotto Numbers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jorgensen, C.B.; Suetens, S.; Tyran, J.R.

    2011-01-01

    We investigate the "law of small numbers" using a unique panel data set on lotto gambling. Because we can track individual players over time, we can measure how they react to outcomes of recent lotto drawings. We can therefore test whether they behave as if they believe they can predict lotto

  19. Candidate Prediction Models and Methods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg; Nielsen, Torben Skov; Madsen, Henrik

    2005-01-01

    This document lists candidate prediction models for Work Package 3 (WP3) of the PSO-project called ``Intelligent wind power prediction systems'' (FU4101). The main focus is on the models transforming numerical weather predictions into predictions of power production. The document also outlines...

  20. Predicting Lotto Numbers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Claus Bjørn; Suetens, Sigrid; Tyran, Jean-Robert

    numbers based on recent drawings. While most players pick the same set of numbers week after week without regards of numbers drawn or anything else, we find that those who do change, act on average in the way predicted by the law of small numbers as formalized in recent behavioral theory. In particular......We investigate the “law of small numbers” using a unique panel data set on lotto gambling. Because we can track individual players over time, we can measure how they react to outcomes of recent lotto drawings. We can therefore test whether they behave as if they believe they can predict lotto......, on average they move away from numbers that have recently been drawn, as suggested by the “gambler’s fallacy”, and move toward numbers that are on streak, i.e. have been drawn several weeks in a row, consistent with the “hot hand fallacy”....

  1. Chaos detection and predictability

    CERN Document Server

    Gottwald, Georg; Laskar, Jacques

    2016-01-01

    Distinguishing chaoticity from regularity in deterministic dynamical systems and specifying the subspace of the phase space in which instabilities are expected to occur is of utmost importance in as disparate areas as astronomy, particle physics and climate dynamics.   To address these issues there exists a plethora of methods for chaos detection and predictability. The most commonly employed technique for investigating chaotic dynamics, i.e. the computation of Lyapunov exponents, however, may suffer a number of problems and drawbacks, for example when applied to noisy experimental data.   In the last two decades, several novel methods have been developed for the fast and reliable determination of the regular or chaotic nature of orbits, aimed at overcoming the shortcomings of more traditional techniques. This set of lecture notes and tutorial reviews serves as an introduction to and overview of modern chaos detection and predictability techniques for graduate students and non-specialists.   The book cover...

  2. Predicting Bankruptcy in Pakistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdul RASHID

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to identify the financial ratios that are most significant in bankruptcy prediction for the non-financial sector of Pakistan based on a sample of companies which became bankrupt over the time period 1996-2006. Twenty four financial ratios covering four important financial attributes, namely profitability, liquidity, leverage, and turnover ratios, were examined for a five-year period prior bankruptcy. The discriminant analysis produced a parsimonious model of three variables viz. sales to total assets, EBIT to current liabilities, and cash flow ratio. Our estimates provide evidence that the firms having Z-value below zero fall into the “bankrupt” whereas the firms with Z-value above zero fall into the “non-bankrupt” category. The model achieved 76.9% prediction accuracy when it is applied to forecast bankruptcies on the underlying sample.

  3. Airframe noise prediction evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamamoto, Kingo J.; Donelson, Michael J.; Huang, Shumei C.; Joshi, Mahendra C.

    1995-01-01

    The objective of this study is to evaluate the accuracy and adequacy of current airframe noise prediction methods using available airframe noise measurements from tests of a narrow body transport (DC-9) and a wide body transport (DC-10) in addition to scale model test data. General features of the airframe noise from these aircraft and models are outlined. The results of the assessment of two airframe prediction methods, Fink's and Munson's methods, against flight test data of these aircraft and scale model wind tunnel test data are presented. These methods were extensively evaluated against measured data from several configurations including clean, slat deployed, landing gear-deployed, flap deployed, and landing configurations of both DC-9 and DC-10. They were also assessed against a limited number of configurations of scale models. The evaluation was conducted in terms of overall sound pressure level (OASPL), tone corrected perceived noise level (PNLT), and one-third-octave band sound pressure level (SPL).

  4. Urban pluvial flood prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorndahl, Søren Liedtke; Nielsen, Jesper Ellerbæk; Jensen, David Getreuer

    2016-01-01

    Flooding produced by high-intensive local rainfall and drainage system capacity exceedance can have severe impacts in cities. In order to prepare cities for these types of flood events – especially in the future climate – it is valuable to be able to simulate these events numerically both...... historically and in real-time. There is a rather untested potential in real-time prediction of urban floods. In this paper radar data observations with different spatial and temporal resolution, radar nowcasts of 0–2 h lead time, and numerical weather models with lead times up to 24 h are used as inputs...... to an integrated flood and drainage systems model in order to investigate the relative difference between different inputs in predicting future floods. The system is tested on a small town Lystrup in Denmark, which has been flooded in 2012 and 2014. Results show it is possible to generate detailed flood maps...

  5. Crystal structure and prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thakur, Tejender S; Dubey, Ritesh; Desiraju, Gautam R

    2015-04-01

    The notion of structure is central to the subject of chemistry. This review traces the development of the idea of crystal structure since the time when a crystal structure could be determined from a three-dimensional diffraction pattern and assesses the feasibility of computationally predicting an unknown crystal structure of a given molecule. Crystal structure prediction is of considerable fundamental and applied importance, and its successful execution is by no means a solved problem. The ease of crystal structure determination today has resulted in the availability of large numbers of crystal structures of higher-energy polymorphs and pseudopolymorphs. These structural libraries lead to the concept of a crystal structure landscape. A crystal structure of a compound may accordingly be taken as a data point in such a landscape.

  6. Comparing Spatial Predictions

    KAUST Repository

    Hering, Amanda S.

    2011-11-01

    Under a general loss function, we develop a hypothesis test to determine whether a significant difference in the spatial predictions produced by two competing models exists on average across the entire spatial domain of interest. The null hypothesis is that of no difference, and a spatial loss differential is created based on the observed data, the two sets of predictions, and the loss function chosen by the researcher. The test assumes only isotropy and short-range spatial dependence of the loss differential but does allow it to be non-Gaussian, non-zero-mean, and spatially correlated. Constant and nonconstant spatial trends in the loss differential are treated in two separate cases. Monte Carlo simulations illustrate the size and power properties of this test, and an example based on daily average wind speeds in Oklahoma is used for illustration. Supplemental results are available online. © 2011 American Statistical Association and the American Society for Qualitys.

  7. Essays on Earnings Predictability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bruun, Mark

    This dissertation addresses the prediction of corporate earnings. The thesis aims to examine whether the degree of precision in earnings forecasts can be increased by basing them on historical financial ratios. Furthermore, the intent of the dissertation is to analyze whether accounting standards...... affect the accuracy of analysts´earnings forecasts. Finally, the objective of the dissertation is to investigate how the stock market is affected by the accuracy of corporate earnings projections. The dissertation contributes to a deeper understanding of these issues. First, it is shown how earnings...... forecasts are not more accurate than the simpler forecasts based on a historical timeseries of earnings. Secondly, the dissertation shows how accounting standards affect analysts’ earnings predictions. Accounting conservatism contributes to a more volatile earnings process, which lowers the accuracy...

  8. Time-predictable architectures

    CERN Document Server

    Rochange, Christine; Uhrig , Sascha

    2014-01-01

    Building computers that can be used to design embedded real-time systems is the subject of this title. Real-time embedded software requires increasingly higher performances. The authors therefore consider processors that implement advanced mechanisms such as pipelining, out-of-order execution, branch prediction, cache memories, multi-threading, multicorearchitectures, etc. The authors of this book investigate the timepredictability of such schemes.

  9. Predictive Game Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolpert, David H.

    2005-01-01

    Probability theory governs the outcome of a game; there is a distribution over mixed strat.'s, not a single "equilibrium". To predict a single mixed strategy must use our loss function (external to the game's players. Provides a quantification of any strategy's rationality. Prove rationality falls as cost of computation rises (for players who have not previously interacted). All extends to games with varying numbers of players.

  10. From Prediction to Process

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Kristian Steensen

    2017-01-01

    behavior or value-belief-norm theory), as it focuses on the dynamic psychological mechanisms that result in either success or failure in acting relative to a certain standard or goal. Similar to the intention-behavior gap, self-regulation research recognizes the occasional failure of people to adhere...... to their own environmental standards and goals. However, unlike prediction models, self-regulation research gives directions on how to reduce the frequency by which these failures occur....

  11. Are Emojis Predictable?

    OpenAIRE

    Barbieri, Francesco; Ballesteros, Miguel; Saggion, Horacio

    2017-01-01

    Emojis are ideograms which are naturally combined with plain text to visually complement or condense the meaning of a message. Despite being widely used in social media, their underlying semantics have received little attention from a Natural Language Processing standpoint. In this paper, we investigate the relation between words and emojis, studying the novel task of predicting which emojis are evoked by text-based tweet messages. We train several models based on Long Short-Term Memory netwo...

  12. Predictive Systems Toxicology

    KAUST Repository

    Kiani, Narsis A.

    2018-01-15

    In this review we address to what extent computational techniques can augment our ability to predict toxicity. The first section provides a brief history of empirical observations on toxicity dating back to the dawn of Sumerian civilization. Interestingly, the concept of dose emerged very early on, leading up to the modern emphasis on kinetic properties, which in turn encodes the insight that toxicity is not solely a property of a compound but instead depends on the interaction with the host organism. The next logical step is the current conception of evaluating drugs from a personalized medicine point-of-view. We review recent work on integrating what could be referred to as classical pharmacokinetic analysis with emerging systems biology approaches incorporating multiple omics data. These systems approaches employ advanced statistical analytical data processing complemented with machine learning techniques and use both pharmacokinetic and omics data. We find that such integrated approaches not only provide improved predictions of toxicity but also enable mechanistic interpretations of the molecular mechanisms underpinning toxicity and drug resistance. We conclude the chapter by discussing some of the main challenges, such as how to balance the inherent tension between the predictive capacity of models, which in practice amounts to constraining the number of features in the models versus allowing for rich mechanistic interpretability, i.e. equipping models with numerous molecular features. This challenge also requires patient-specific predictions on toxicity, which in turn requires proper stratification of patients as regards how they respond, with or without adverse toxic effects. In summary, the transformation of the ancient concept of dose is currently successfully operationalized using rich integrative data encoded in patient-specific models.

  13. Predictive Surface Complexation Modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sverjensky, Dimitri A. [Johns Hopkins Univ., Baltimore, MD (United States). Dept. of Earth and Planetary Sciences

    2016-11-29

    Surface complexation plays an important role in the equilibria and kinetics of processes controlling the compositions of soilwaters and groundwaters, the fate of contaminants in groundwaters, and the subsurface storage of CO2 and nuclear waste. Over the last several decades, many dozens of individual experimental studies have addressed aspects of surface complexation that have contributed to an increased understanding of its role in natural systems. However, there has been no previous attempt to develop a model of surface complexation that can be used to link all the experimental studies in order to place them on a predictive basis. Overall, my research has successfully integrated the results of the work of many experimentalists published over several decades. For the first time in studies of the geochemistry of the mineral-water interface, a practical predictive capability for modeling has become available. The predictive correlations developed in my research now enable extrapolations of experimental studies to provide estimates of surface chemistry for systems not yet studied experimentally and for natural and anthropogenically perturbed systems.

  14. Predicting Anthracycline Benefit

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bartlett, John M S; McConkey, Christopher C; Munro, Alison F

    2015-01-01

    PURPOSE: Evidence supporting the clinical utility of predictive biomarkers of anthracycline activity is weak, with a recent meta-analysis failing to provide strong evidence for either HER2 or TOP2A. Having previously shown that duplication of chromosome 17 pericentromeric alpha satellite as measu......PURPOSE: Evidence supporting the clinical utility of predictive biomarkers of anthracycline activity is weak, with a recent meta-analysis failing to provide strong evidence for either HER2 or TOP2A. Having previously shown that duplication of chromosome 17 pericentromeric alpha satellite...... as measured with a centromere enumeration probe (CEP17) predicted sensitivity to anthracyclines, we report here an individual patient-level pooled analysis of data from five trials comparing anthracycline-based chemotherapy with CMF (cyclophosphamide, methotrexate, and fluorouracil) as adjuvant chemotherapy...... trials for both recurrence-free (hazard ratio, 0.64; 95% CI, 0.51 to 0.82; P = .001) and overall survival (hazard ratio, 0.66; 95% CI, 0.51 to 0.85; P = .005). CONCLUSION: This prospectively planned individual-patient pooled analysis of patient cases from five adjuvant trials confirms that patients whose...

  15. Predicting Human Cooperation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John J Nay

    Full Text Available The Prisoner's Dilemma has been a subject of extensive research due to its importance in understanding the ever-present tension between individual self-interest and social benefit. A strictly dominant strategy in a Prisoner's Dilemma (defection, when played by both players, is mutually harmful. Repetition of the Prisoner's Dilemma can give rise to cooperation as an equilibrium, but defection is as well, and this ambiguity is difficult to resolve. The numerous behavioral experiments investigating the Prisoner's Dilemma highlight that players often cooperate, but the level of cooperation varies significantly with the specifics of the experimental predicament. We present the first computational model of human behavior in repeated Prisoner's Dilemma games that unifies the diversity of experimental observations in a systematic and quantitatively reliable manner. Our model relies on data we integrated from many experiments, comprising 168,386 individual decisions. The model is composed of two pieces: the first predicts the first-period action using solely the structural game parameters, while the second predicts dynamic actions using both game parameters and history of play. Our model is successful not merely at fitting the data, but in predicting behavior at multiple scales in experimental designs not used for calibration, using only information about the game structure. We demonstrate the power of our approach through a simulation analysis revealing how to best promote human cooperation.

  16. Noncausal predictive image codec.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balram, N; Moura, J F

    1996-01-01

    The paper describes a lossy image codec that uses a noncausal (or bilateral) prediction model coupled with vector quantization. The noncausal prediction model is an alternative to the causal (or unilateral) model that is commonly used in differential pulse code modulation (DPCM) and other codecs with a predictive component. We show how to obtain a recursive implementation of the noncausal image model without compromising its optimality and how to apply this in coding in much the same way as a causal predictor. We report experimental compression results that demonstrate the superiority of using a noncausal model based predictor over using traditional causal predictors. The codec is shown to produce high-quality compressed images at low bit rates such as 0.375 b/pixel. This quality is contrasted with the degraded images that are produced at the same bit rates by codecs using causal predictors or standard discrete cosine transform/Joint Photographic Experts Group-based (DCT/JPEG-based) algorithms.

  17. Predictive Dynamic Digital Holography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sulaiman, Sennan David

    Digital holography has received recent attention for many imaging and sensing applications, including imaging through turbulent and turbid media, adaptive optics, three-dimensional projective display technology and optical tweezing. It holds several advantages over conventional imaging and wavefront sensing, chief among these being significantly fewer and simpler optical components and the retrieval of complex field. A significant obstacle for digital holography in real-time applications, such as wavefront sensing for high-energy laser systems and high-speed imaging for target tracking, is the fact that digital holography is computationally intensive; it requires iterative virtual wavefront propagation and hill-climbing algorithms to optimize sharpness criteria. This research demonstrates real-time methods for digital holography based on approaches for optimal and adaptive identification, prediction, and control of optical wavefronts. The methods presented integrate minimum-variance wavefront prediction into dynamic digital holography schemes to accelerate the wavefront correction and image sharpening algorithms. Further gains in computational efficiency are demonstrated in this work with a variant of localized sharpening in conjunction with predictive dynamic digital holography for real-time applications. This "subspace correction" method optimizes sharpness of local regions in a detector plane by parallel independent wavefront correction on reduced-dimension subspaces of the complex field in a spectral plane.

  18. Predicting big bang deuterium

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hata, N.; Scherrer, R.J.; Steigman, G.; Thomas, D.; Walker, T.P. [Department of Physics, Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio 43210 (United States)

    1996-02-01

    We present new upper and lower bounds to the primordial abundances of deuterium and {sup 3}He based on observational data from the solar system and the interstellar medium. Independent of any model for the primordial production of the elements we find (at the 95{percent} C.L.): 1.5{times}10{sup {minus}5}{le}(D/H){sub {ital P}}{le}10.0{times}10{sup {minus}5} and ({sup 3}He/H){sub {ital P}}{le}2.6{times}10{sup {minus}5}. When combined with the predictions of standard big bang nucleosynthesis, these constraints lead to a 95{percent} C.L. bound on the primordial abundance deuterium: (D/H){sub best}=(3.5{sup +2.7}{sub {minus}1.8}){times}10{sup {minus}5}. Measurements of deuterium absorption in the spectra of high-redshift QSOs will directly test this prediction. The implications of this prediction for the primordial abundances of {sup 4}He and {sup 7}Li are discussed, as well as those for the universal density of baryons. {copyright} {ital 1996 The American Astronomical Society.}

  19. Disruption prediction at JET

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Milani, F.

    1998-12-01

    The sudden loss of the plasma magnetic confinement, known as disruption, is one of the major issue in a nuclear fusion machine as JET (Joint European Torus). Disruptions pose very serious problems to the safety of the machine. The energy stored in the plasma is released to the machine structure in few milliseconds resulting in forces that at JET reach several Mega Newtons. The problem is even more severe in the nuclear fusion power station where the forces are in the order of one hundred Mega Newtons. The events that occur during a disruption are still not well understood even if some mechanisms that can lead to a disruption have been identified and can be used to predict them. Unfortunately it is always a combination of these events that generates a disruption and therefore it is not possible to use simple algorithms to predict it. This thesis analyses the possibility of using neural network algorithms to predict plasma disruptions in real time. This involves the determination of plasma parameters every few milliseconds. A plasma boundary reconstruction algorithm, XLOC, has been developed in collaboration with Dr. D. O'Brien and Dr. J. Ellis capable of determining the plasma wall/distance every 2 milliseconds. The XLOC output has been used to develop a multilayer perceptron network to determine plasma parameters as l i and q ψ with which a machine operational space has been experimentally defined. If the limits of this operational space are breached the disruption probability increases considerably. Another approach for prediction disruptions is to use neural network classification methods to define the JET operational space. Two methods have been studied. The first method uses a multilayer perceptron network with softmax activation function for the output layer. This method can be used for classifying the input patterns in various classes. In this case the plasma input patterns have been divided between disrupting and safe patterns, giving the possibility of

  20. On identified predictive control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bialasiewicz, Jan T.

    1993-01-01

    Self-tuning control algorithms are potential successors to manually tuned PID controllers traditionally used in process control applications. A very attractive design method for self-tuning controllers, which has been developed over recent years, is the long-range predictive control (LRPC). The success of LRPC is due to its effectiveness with plants of unknown order and dead-time which may be simultaneously nonminimum phase and unstable or have multiple lightly damped poles (as in the case of flexible structures or flexible robot arms). LRPC is a receding horizon strategy and can be, in general terms, summarized as follows. Using assumed long-range (or multi-step) cost function the optimal control law is found in terms of unknown parameters of the predictor model of the process, current input-output sequence, and future reference signal sequence. The common approach is to assume that the input-output process model is known or separately identified and then to find the parameters of the predictor model. Once these are known, the optimal control law determines control signal at the current time t which is applied at the process input and the whole procedure is repeated at the next time instant. Most of the recent research in this field is apparently centered around the LRPC formulation developed by Clarke et al., known as generalized predictive control (GPC). GPC uses ARIMAX/CARIMA model of the process in its input-output formulation. In this paper, the GPC formulation is used but the process predictor model is derived from the state space formulation of the ARIMAX model and is directly identified over the receding horizon, i.e., using current input-output sequence. The underlying technique in the design of identified predictive control (IPC) algorithm is the identification algorithm of observer/Kalman filter Markov parameters developed by Juang et al. at NASA Langley Research Center and successfully applied to identification of flexible structures.

  1. Predicting Lotto Numbers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Suetens, Sigrid; Galbo-Jørgensen, Claus B.; Tyran, Jean-Robert Karl

    2016-01-01

    as formalized in recent behavioral theory. In particular, players tend to bet less on numbers that have been drawn in the preceding week, as suggested by the ‘gambler’s fallacy’, and bet more on a number if it was frequently drawn in the recent past, consistent with the ‘hot-hand fallacy’.......We investigate the ‘law of small numbers’ using a data set on lotto gambling that allows us to measure players’ reactions to draws. While most players pick the same set of numbers week after week, we find that those who do change react on average as predicted by the law of small numbers...

  2. Epitope prediction methods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karosiene, Edita

    on machine learning techniques. Several MHC class I binding prediction algorithms have been developed and due to their high accuracy they are used by many immunologists to facilitate the conventional experimental process of epitope discovery. However, the accuracy of these methods depends on data defining...... the NetMHCIIpan-3.0 predictor based on artificial neural networks, which is capable of giving binding affinities to any human MHC class II molecule. Chapter 4 of this thesis gives an overview of bioinformatics tools developed by the Immunological Bioinformatics group at Center for Biological Sequence...

  3. Predicting chaotic time series

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Farmer, J.D.; Sidorowich, J.J.

    1987-01-01

    We present a forecasting technique for chaotic data. After embedding a time series in a state space using delay coordinates, we ''learn'' the induced nonlinear mapping using local approximation. This allows us to make short-term predictions of the future behavior of a time series, using information based only on past values. We present an error estimate for this technique, and demonstrate its effectiveness by applying it to several examples, including data from the Mackey-Glass delay differential equation, Rayleigh-Benard convection, and Taylor-Couette flow

  4. Lattice of quantum predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drieschner, Michael

    1993-10-01

    What is the structure of reality? Physics is supposed to answer this question, but a purely empiristic view is not sufficient to explain its ability to do so. Quantum mechanics has forced us to think more deeply about what a physical theory is. There are preconditions every physical theory must fulfill. It has to contain, e.g., rules for empirically testable predictions. Those preconditions give physics a structure that is “a priori” in the Kantian sense. An example is given how the lattice structure of quantum mechanics can be understood along these lines.

  5. Foundations of predictive analytics

    CERN Document Server

    Wu, James

    2012-01-01

    Drawing on the authors' two decades of experience in applied modeling and data mining, Foundations of Predictive Analytics presents the fundamental background required for analyzing data and building models for many practical applications, such as consumer behavior modeling, risk and marketing analytics, and other areas. It also discusses a variety of practical topics that are frequently missing from similar texts. The book begins with the statistical and linear algebra/matrix foundation of modeling methods, from distributions to cumulant and copula functions to Cornish--Fisher expansion and o

  6. Predicting Sustainable Work Behavior

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hald, Kim Sundtoft

    2013-01-01

    Sustainable work behavior is an important issue for operations managers – it has implications for most outcomes of OM. This research explores the antecedents of sustainable work behavior. It revisits and extends the sociotechnical model developed by Brown et al. (2000) on predicting safe behavior....... Employee characteristics and general attitudes towards safety and work condition are included in the extended model. A survey was handed out to 654 employees in Chinese factories. This research contributes by demonstrating how employee- characteristics and general attitudes towards safety and work...... condition influence their sustainable work behavior. A new definition of sustainable work behavior is proposed....

  7. Nuclear criticality predictability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Briggs, J.B.

    1999-01-01

    As a result of lots of efforts, a large portion of the tedious and redundant research and processing of critical experiment data has been eliminated. The necessary step in criticality safety analyses of validating computer codes with benchmark critical data is greatly streamlined, and valuable criticality safety experimental data is preserved. Criticality safety personnel in 31 different countries are now using the 'International Handbook of Evaluated Criticality Safety Benchmark Experiments'. Much has been accomplished by the work of the ICSBEP. However, evaluation and documentation represents only one element of a successful Nuclear Criticality Safety Predictability Program and this element only exists as a separate entity, because this work was not completed in conjunction with the experimentation process. I believe; however, that the work of the ICSBEP has also served to unify the other elements of nuclear criticality predictability. All elements are interrelated, but for a time it seemed that communications between these elements was not adequate. The ICSBEP has highlighted gaps in data, has retrieved lost data, has helped to identify errors in cross section processing codes, and has helped bring the international criticality safety community together in a common cause as true friends and colleagues. It has been a privilege to associate with those who work so diligently to make the project a success. (J.P.N.)

  8. Predicting Microsurgical Aptitude.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osborn, Heather A; Kuthubutheen, Jafri; Yao, Christopher; Chen, Joseph M; Lin, Vincent Y

    2015-08-01

    Microscopic techniques are an essential part of otolaryngologic practice. These procedures demand advanced psychomotor and visuospatial skills, and trainees possess these abilities to varying degrees. No method currently exists to predict who will possess an aptitude for microscopic surgery. Our goal was to determine whether performance can be predicted by background experiences or skills. Retrospective cohort study. Tertiary academic hospital. Students with no previous surgical experience. Subjects were surveyed on a wide range characteristics thought to affect surgical aptitude, with a primary focus on video gaming and musical training. Subjects performed a microsurgical task using a novel simulator and their performance was assessed by blinded investigators. Forty-six students were assessed. There was no correlation between video gaming and improved microsurgical performance. Rather, video gamers obtained worse scores, although this difference did not reach significance. The majority of students played a musical instrument. Within this group, musicians who began playing at younger ages obtained higher scores, with the highest scores obtained by musicians who began playing before age 6. However, musicians did not obtain higher scores than non-musicians, regardless of their age of initiation. No improvement in microsurgical aptitude was seen in subjects who had a history of video gaming or musical instrument playing.

  9. Ratchetting strain prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Noban, Mohammad; Jahed, Hamid

    2007-01-01

    A time-efficient method for predicting ratchetting strain is proposed. The ratchetting strain at any cycle is determined by finding the ratchetting rate at only a few cycles. This determination is done by first defining the trajectory of the origin of stress in the deviatoric stress space and then incorporating this moving origin into a cyclic plasticity model. It is shown that at the beginning of the loading, the starting point of this trajectory coincides with the initial stress origin and approaches the mean stress, displaying a power-law relationship with the number of loading cycles. The method of obtaining this trajectory from a standard uniaxial asymmetric cyclic loading is presented. Ratchetting rates are calculated with the help of this trajectory and through the use of a constitutive cyclic plasticity model which incorporates deviatoric stresses and back stresses that are measured with respect to this moving frame. The proposed model is used to predict the ratchetting strain of two types of steels under single- and multi-step loadings. Results obtained agree well with the available experimental measurements

  10. Predicting gangrenous cholecystitis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Bin; Buddensick, Thomas J; Ferdosi, Hamid; Narducci, Dusty Marie; Sautter, Amanda; Setiawan, Lisa; Shaukat, Haroon; Siddique, Mustafa; Sulkowski, Gisela N; Kamangar, Farin; Kowdley, Gopal C; Cunningham, Steven C

    2014-09-01

    Gangrenous cholecystitis (GC) is often challenging to treat. The objectives of this study were to determine the accuracy of pre-operative diagnosis, to assess the rate of post-cholecystectomy complications and to assess models to predict GC. A retrospective single-institution review identified patients undergoing a cholecystectomy. Logistic regression models were used to examine the association of variables with GC and to build risk-assessment models. Of 5812 patients undergoing a cholecystectomy, 2219 had acute, 4837 chronic and 351 GC. Surgeons diagnosed GC pre-operatively in only 9% of cases. Patients with GC had more complications, including bile-duct injury, increased estimated blood loss (EBL) and more frequent open cholecystectomies. In unadjusted analyses, variables significantly associated with GC included: age >45 years, male gender, heart rate (HR) >90, white blood cell count (WBC) >13,000/mm(3), gallbladder wall thickening (GBWT) ≥ 4 mm, pericholecystic fluid (PCCF) and American Society of Anesthesiology (ASA) >2. In adjusted analyses, age, WBC, GBWT and HR, but not gender, PCCF or ASA remained statistically significant. A 5-point scoring system was created: 0 points gave a 2% probability of GC and 5 points a 63% probability. Using models can improve a diagnosis of GC pre-operatively. A prediction of GC pre-operatively may allow surgeons to be better prepared for a difficult operation. © 2014 International Hepato-Pancreato-Biliary Association.

  11. Prediction of Biomolecular Complexes

    KAUST Repository

    Vangone, Anna

    2017-04-12

    Almost all processes in living organisms occur through specific interactions between biomolecules. Any dysfunction of those interactions can lead to pathological events. Understanding such interactions is therefore a crucial step in the investigation of biological systems and a starting point for drug design. In recent years, experimental studies have been devoted to unravel the principles of biomolecular interactions; however, due to experimental difficulties in solving the three-dimensional (3D) structure of biomolecular complexes, the number of available, high-resolution experimental 3D structures does not fulfill the current needs. Therefore, complementary computational approaches to model such interactions are necessary to assist experimentalists since a full understanding of how biomolecules interact (and consequently how they perform their function) only comes from 3D structures which provide crucial atomic details about binding and recognition processes. In this chapter we review approaches to predict biomolecular complexesBiomolecular complexes, introducing the concept of molecular dockingDocking, a technique which uses a combination of geometric, steric and energetics considerations to predict the 3D structure of a biological complex starting from the individual structures of its constituent parts. We provide a mini-guide about docking concepts, its potential and challenges, along with post-docking analysis and a list of related software.

  12. Energy Predictions 2011

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2010-10-01

    Even as the recession begins to subside, the energy sector is still likely to experience challenging conditions as we enter 2011. It should be remembered how very important a role energy plays in driving the global economy. Serving as a simple yet global and unified measure of economic recovery, it is oil's price range and the strength and sustainability of the recovery which will impact the ways in which all forms of energy are produced and consumed. The report aims for a closer insight into these predictions: What will happen with M and A (Mergers and Acquisitions) in the energy industry?; What are the prospects for renewables?; Will the water-energy nexus grow in importance?; How will technological leaps and bounds affect E and P (exploration and production) operations?; What about electric cars? This is the second year Deloitte's Global Energy and Resources Group has published its predictions for the year ahead. The report is based on in-depth interviews with clients, industry analysts, and senior energy practitioners from Deloitte member firms around the world.

  13. Predicting Alloreactivity in Transplantation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kirsten Geneugelijk

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Human leukocyte Antigen (HLA mismatching leads to severe complications after solid-organ transplantation and hematopoietic stem-cell transplantation. The alloreactive responses underlying the posttransplantation complications include both direct recognition of allogeneic HLA by HLA-specific alloantibodies and T cells and indirect T-cell recognition. However, the immunogenicity of HLA mismatches is highly variable; some HLA mismatches lead to severe clinical B-cell- and T-cell-mediated alloreactivity, whereas others are well tolerated. Definition of the permissibility of HLA mismatches prior to transplantation allows selection of donor-recipient combinations that will have a reduced chance to develop deleterious host-versus-graft responses after solid-organ transplantation and graft-versus-host responses after hematopoietic stem-cell transplantation. Therefore, several methods have been developed to predict permissible HLA-mismatch combinations. In this review we aim to give a comprehensive overview about the current knowledge regarding HLA-directed alloreactivity and several developed in vitro and in silico tools that aim to predict direct and indirect alloreactivity.

  14. [Predicting chance of disease: calculation using prediction rules].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verbeek, Anna J M; Verbeek, Jan F M; van Dijck, Jos A A M; Verbeek, André L M

    2014-01-01

    A prediction rule is a statistical model that can be used to predict the presence or absence of a disease based on a limited number of tests or predictive factors. One of the mathematical methods used to formulate prediction rules is a logistic regression analysis of patient data. The discriminatory power of a model is visualizable using box-whisker plots and ROC curves; calibration plots show the match between the predicted chance and the observed frequency of a disease. These graphs are used to assess whether a model adequately reproduces reality. On publication of prediction rules it is important that the regression function is written out and that the chances of a disease on the basis of diagnostic scores are displayed in a histogram. For the practical significance of the model, it is also important to know how often the predicted low, medium or high probabilities of a disease do actually occur in comparison with the advance chance of occurrence.

  15. Protein docking prediction using predicted protein-protein interface

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li Bin

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Many important cellular processes are carried out by protein complexes. To provide physical pictures of interacting proteins, many computational protein-protein prediction methods have been developed in the past. However, it is still difficult to identify the correct docking complex structure within top ranks among alternative conformations. Results We present a novel protein docking algorithm that utilizes imperfect protein-protein binding interface prediction for guiding protein docking. Since the accuracy of protein binding site prediction varies depending on cases, the challenge is to develop a method which does not deteriorate but improves docking results by using a binding site prediction which may not be 100% accurate. The algorithm, named PI-LZerD (using Predicted Interface with Local 3D Zernike descriptor-based Docking algorithm, is based on a pair wise protein docking prediction algorithm, LZerD, which we have developed earlier. PI-LZerD starts from performing docking prediction using the provided protein-protein binding interface prediction as constraints, which is followed by the second round of docking with updated docking interface information to further improve docking conformation. Benchmark results on bound and unbound cases show that PI-LZerD consistently improves the docking prediction accuracy as compared with docking without using binding site prediction or using the binding site prediction as post-filtering. Conclusion We have developed PI-LZerD, a pairwise docking algorithm, which uses imperfect protein-protein binding interface prediction to improve docking accuracy. PI-LZerD consistently showed better prediction accuracy over alternative methods in the series of benchmark experiments including docking using actual docking interface site predictions as well as unbound docking cases.

  16. Chloride ingress prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frederiksen, Jens Mejer; Geiker, Mette Rica

    2008-01-01

    Prediction of chloride ingress into concrete is an important part of durability design of reinforced concrete structures exposed to chloride containing environment. This paper presents experimentally based design parameters for Portland cement concretes with and without silica fume and fly ash...... in marine atmospheric and submersed South Scandinavian environment. The design parameters are based on sequential measurements of 86 chloride profiles taken over ten years from 13 different types of concrete. The design parameters provide the input for an analytical model for chloride profiles as function...... of depth and time, when both the surface chloride concentration and the diffusion coefficient are allowed to vary in time. The model is presented in a companion paper....

  17. Filter replacement lifetime prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamann, Hendrik F.; Klein, Levente I.; Manzer, Dennis G.; Marianno, Fernando J.

    2017-10-25

    Methods and systems for predicting a filter lifetime include building a filter effectiveness history based on contaminant sensor information associated with a filter; determining a rate of filter consumption with a processor based on the filter effectiveness history; and determining a remaining filter lifetime based on the determined rate of filter consumption. Methods and systems for increasing filter economy include measuring contaminants in an internal and an external environment; determining a cost of a corrosion rate increase if unfiltered external air intake is increased for cooling; determining a cost of increased air pressure to filter external air; and if the cost of filtering external air exceeds the cost of the corrosion rate increase, increasing an intake of unfiltered external air.

  18. Motor degradation prediction methods

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arnold, J.R.; Kelly, J.F.; Delzingaro, M.J.

    1996-12-01

    Motor Operated Valve (MOV) squirrel cage AC motor rotors are susceptible to degradation under certain conditions. Premature failure can result due to high humidity/temperature environments, high running load conditions, extended periods at locked rotor conditions (i.e. > 15 seconds) or exceeding the motor`s duty cycle by frequent starts or multiple valve stroking. Exposure to high heat and moisture due to packing leaks, pressure seal ring leakage or other causes can significantly accelerate the degradation. ComEd and Liberty Technologies have worked together to provide and validate a non-intrusive method using motor power diagnostics to evaluate MOV rotor condition and predict failure. These techniques have provided a quick, low radiation dose method to evaluate inaccessible motors, identify degradation and allow scheduled replacement of motors prior to catastrophic failures.

  19. Chloride ingress prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frederiksen, Jens Mejer; Geiker, Mette Rica

    2008-01-01

    Prediction of chloride ingress into concrete is an important part of durability design of reinforced concrete structures exposed to chloride containing environment. This paper presents the state-of-the art: an analytical model which describes chloride profiles in concrete as function of depth...... makes physical sense for the design engineer, i.e. the achieved chloride diffusion coefficients at 1 year and 100 years, D1 and D100 respectively, and the corresponding achieved chloride concentrations at the exposed concrete surface, C1 and C100. Data from field exposure supports the assumption of time...... dependent surface chloride concentrations and the diffusion coefficients. Model parameters for Portland cement concretes with and without silica fume and fly ash in marine atmospheric and submerged South Scandinavian environment are suggested in a companion paper based on 10 years field exposure data....

  20. Motor degradation prediction methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arnold, J.R.; Kelly, J.F.; Delzingaro, M.J.

    1996-01-01

    Motor Operated Valve (MOV) squirrel cage AC motor rotors are susceptible to degradation under certain conditions. Premature failure can result due to high humidity/temperature environments, high running load conditions, extended periods at locked rotor conditions (i.e. > 15 seconds) or exceeding the motor's duty cycle by frequent starts or multiple valve stroking. Exposure to high heat and moisture due to packing leaks, pressure seal ring leakage or other causes can significantly accelerate the degradation. ComEd and Liberty Technologies have worked together to provide and validate a non-intrusive method using motor power diagnostics to evaluate MOV rotor condition and predict failure. These techniques have provided a quick, low radiation dose method to evaluate inaccessible motors, identify degradation and allow scheduled replacement of motors prior to catastrophic failures

  1. Neurological abnormalities predict disability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Poggesi, Anna; Gouw, Alida; van der Flier, Wiesje

    2014-01-01

    To investigate the role of neurological abnormalities and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) lesions in predicting global functional decline in a cohort of initially independent-living elderly subjects. The Leukoaraiosis And DISability (LADIS) Study, involving 11 European centres, was primarily aimed...... at evaluating age-related white matter changes (ARWMC) as an independent predictor of the transition to disability (according to Instrumental Activities of Daily Living scale) or death in independent elderly subjects that were followed up for 3 years. At baseline, a standardized neurological examination.......0 years, 45 % males), 327 (51.7 %) presented at the initial visit with ≥1 neurological abnormality and 242 (38 %) reached the main study outcome. Cox regression analyses, adjusting for MRI features and other determinants of functional decline, showed that the baseline presence of any neurological...

  2. Plume rise predictions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Briggs, G.A.

    1976-01-01

    Anyone involved with diffusion calculations becomes well aware of the strong dependence of maximum ground concentrations on the effective stack height, h/sub e/. For most conditions chi/sub max/ is approximately proportional to h/sub e/ -2 , as has been recognized at least since 1936 (Bosanquet and Pearson). Making allowance for the gradual decrease in the ratio of vertical to lateral diffusion at increasing heights, the exponent is slightly larger, say chi/sub max/ approximately h/sub e/ - 2 . 3 . In inversion breakup fumigation, the exponent is somewhat smaller; very crudely, chi/sub max/ approximately h/sub e/ -1 . 5 . In any case, for an elevated emission the dependence of chi/sub max/ on h/sub e/ is substantial. It is postulated that a really clever ignorant theoretician can disguise his ignorance with dimensionless constants. For most sources the effective stack height is considerably larger than the actual source height, h/sub s/. For instance, for power plants with no downwash problems, h/sub e/ is more than twice h/sub s/ whenever the wind is less than 10 m/sec, which is most of the time. This is unfortunate for anyone who has to predict ground concentrations, for he is likely to have to calculate the plume rise, Δh. Especially when using h/sub e/ = h/sub s/ + Δh instead of h/sub s/ may reduce chi/sub max/ by a factor of anywhere from 4 to infinity. Factors to be considered in making plume rise predictions are discussed

  3. Update on protein structure prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hubbard, T; Tramontano, A; Barton, G

    1996-01-01

    Computational tools for protein structure prediction are of great interest to molecular, structural and theoretical biologists due to a rapidly increasing number of protein sequences with no known structure. In October 1995, a workshop was held at IRBM to predict as much as possible about a number...... of proteins of biological interest using ab initio pre!diction of fold recognition methods. 112 protein sequences were collected via an open invitation for target submissions. 17 were selected for prediction during the workshop and for 11 of these a prediction of some reliability could be made. We believe...

  4. Data-Based Predictive Control with Multirate Prediction Step

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barlow, Jonathan S.

    2010-01-01

    Data-based predictive control is an emerging control method that stems from Model Predictive Control (MPC). MPC computes current control action based on a prediction of the system output a number of time steps into the future and is generally derived from a known model of the system. Data-based predictive control has the advantage of deriving predictive models and controller gains from input-output data. Thus, a controller can be designed from the outputs of complex simulation code or a physical system where no explicit model exists. If the output data happens to be corrupted by periodic disturbances, the designed controller will also have the built-in ability to reject these disturbances without the need to know them. When data-based predictive control is implemented online, it becomes a version of adaptive control. One challenge of MPC is computational requirements increasing with prediction horizon length. This paper develops a closed-loop dynamic output feedback controller that minimizes a multi-step-ahead receding-horizon cost function with multirate prediction step. One result is a reduced influence of prediction horizon and the number of system outputs on the computational requirements of the controller. Another result is an emphasis on portions of the prediction window that are sampled more frequently. A third result is the ability to include more outputs in the feedback path than in the cost function.

  5. Confidence scores for prediction models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gerds, Thomas Alexander; van de Wiel, MA

    2011-01-01

    In medical statistics, many alternative strategies are available for building a prediction model based on training data. Prediction models are routinely compared by means of their prediction performance in independent validation data. If only one data set is available for training and validation......, then rival strategies can still be compared based on repeated bootstraps of the same data. Often, however, the overall performance of rival strategies is similar and it is thus difficult to decide for one model. Here, we investigate the variability of the prediction models that results when the same...... to distinguish rival prediction models with similar prediction performances. Furthermore, on the subject level a confidence score may provide useful supplementary information for new patients who want to base a medical decision on predicted risk. The ideas are illustrated and discussed using data from cancer...

  6. Performance Prediction Toolkit

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2017-09-25

    The Performance Prediction Toolkit (PPT), is a scalable co-design tool that contains the hardware and middle-ware models, which accept proxy applications as input in runtime prediction. PPT relies on Simian, a parallel discrete event simulation engine in Python or Lua, that uses the process concept, where each computing unit (host, node, core) is a Simian entity. Processes perform their task through message exchanges to remain active, sleep, wake-up, begin and end. The PPT hardware model of a compute core (such as a Haswell core) consists of a set of parameters, such as clock speed, memory hierarchy levels, their respective sizes, cache-lines, access times for different cache levels, average cycle counts of ALU operations, etc. These parameters are ideally read off a spec sheet or are learned using regression models learned from hardware counters (PAPI) data. The compute core model offers an API to the software model, a function called time_compute(), which takes as input a tasklist. A tasklist is an unordered set of ALU, and other CPU-type operations (in particular virtual memory loads and stores). The PPT application model mimics the loop structure of the application and replaces the computational kernels with a call to the hardware model's time_compute() function giving tasklists as input that model the compute kernel. A PPT application model thus consists of tasklists representing kernels and the high-er level loop structure that we like to think of as pseudo code. The key challenge for the hardware model's time_compute-function is to translate virtual memory accesses into actual cache hierarchy level hits and misses.PPT also contains another CPU core level hardware model, Analytical Memory Model (AMM). The AMM solves this challenge soundly, where our previous alternatives explicitly include the L1,L2,L3 hit-rates as inputs to the tasklists. Explicit hit-rates inevitably only reflect the application modeler's best guess, perhaps informed by a few

  7. Introduction: Long term prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beranger, G.

    2003-01-01

    Making a decision upon the right choice of a material appropriate to a given application should be based on taking into account several parameters as follows: cost, standards, regulations, safety, recycling, chemical properties, supplying, transformation, forming, assembly, mechanical and physical properties as well as the behaviour in practical conditions. Data taken from a private communication (J.H.Davidson) are reproduced presenting the life time range of materials from a couple of minutes to half a million hours corresponding to applications from missile technology up to high-temperature nuclear reactors or steam turbines. In the case of deep storage of nuclear waste the time required is completely different from these values since we have to ensure the integrity of the storage system for several thousand years. The vitrified nuclear wastes should be stored in metallic canisters made of iron and carbon steels, stainless steels, copper and copper alloys, nickel alloys or titanium alloys. Some of these materials are passivating metals, i.e. they develop a thin protective film, 2 or 3 nm thick - the so-called passive films. These films prevent general corrosion of the metal in a large range of chemical condition of the environment. In some specific condition, localized corrosion such as the phenomenon of pitting, occurs. Consequently, it is absolutely necessary to determine these chemical condition and their stability in time to understand the behavior of a given material. In other words the corrosion system is constituted by the complex material/surface/medium. For high level nuclear wastes the main features for resolving problem are concerned with: geological disposal; deep storage in clay; waste metallic canister; backfill mixture (clay-gypsum) or concrete; long term behavior; data needed for modelling and for predicting; choice of appropriate solution among several metallic candidates. The analysis of the complex material/surface/medium is of great importance

  8. Can we predict the unpredictable?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Golestani, Abbas; Gras, Robin

    2014-10-01

    Time series forecasting is of fundamental importance for a variety of domains including the prediction of earthquakes, financial market prediction, and the prediction of epileptic seizures. We present an original approach that brings a novel perspective to the field of long-term time series forecasting. Nonlinear properties of a time series are evaluated and used for long-term predictions. We used financial time series, medical time series and climate time series to evaluate our method. The results we obtained show that the long-term prediction of complex nonlinear time series is no longer unrealistic. The new method has the ability to predict the long-term evolutionary trend of stock market time series, and it attained an accuracy level with 100% sensitivity and specificity for the prediction of epileptic seizures up to 17 minutes in advance based on data from 21 epileptic patients. Our new method also predicted the trend of increasing global temperature in the last 30 years with a high level of accuracy. Thus, our method for making long-term time series predictions is vastly superior to existing methods. We therefore believe that our proposed method has the potential to be applied to many other domains to generate accurate and useful long-term predictions.

  9. Predictability of blocking

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tosi, E.; Ruti, P.; Tibaldi, S.; D'Andrea, F.

    1994-01-01

    Tibaldi and Molteni (1990, hereafter referred to as TM) had previously investigated operational blocking predictability by the ECMWF model and the possible relationships between model systematic error and blocking in the winter season of the Northern Hemisphere, using seven years of ECMWF operational archives of analyses and day 1 to 10 forecasts. They showed that fewer blocking episodes than in the real atmosphere were generally simulated by the model, and that this deficiency increased with increasing forecast time. As a consequence of this, a major contribution to the systematic error in the winter season was shown to derive from the inability of the model to properly forecast blocking. In this study, the analysis performed in TM for the first seven winter seasons of the ECMWF operational model is extended to the subsequent five winters, during which model development, reflecting both resolution increases and parametrisation modifications, continued unabated. In addition the objective blocking index developed by TM has been applied to the observed data to study the natural low frequency variability of blocking. The ability to simulate blocking of some climate models has also been tested

  10. GABA predicts visual intelligence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cook, Emily; Hammett, Stephen T; Larsson, Jonas

    2016-10-06

    Early psychological researchers proposed a link between intelligence and low-level perceptual performance. It was recently suggested that this link is driven by individual variations in the ability to suppress irrelevant information, evidenced by the observation of strong correlations between perceptual surround suppression and cognitive performance. However, the neural mechanisms underlying such a link remain unclear. A candidate mechanism is neural inhibition by gamma-aminobutyric acid (GABA), but direct experimental support for GABA-mediated inhibition underlying suppression is inconsistent. Here we report evidence consistent with a global suppressive mechanism involving GABA underlying the link between sensory performance and intelligence. We measured visual cortical GABA concentration, visuo-spatial intelligence and visual surround suppression in a group of healthy adults. Levels of GABA were strongly predictive of both intelligence and surround suppression, with higher levels of intelligence associated with higher levels of GABA and stronger surround suppression. These results indicate that GABA-mediated neural inhibition may be a key factor determining cognitive performance and suggests a physiological mechanism linking surround suppression and intelligence. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  11. Predictive Food Microbiology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Østergaard, Nina Bjerre

    Listeria monocytogenes is a well-known food borne pathogen that potentially causes listeriosis. No outbreaks or cases of listeriosis have been associated with cottage cheese, but several confirmed cases and outbreaks in the EU and the US have been related to dairy products made from raw or pasteu......Listeria monocytogenes is a well-known food borne pathogen that potentially causes listeriosis. No outbreaks or cases of listeriosis have been associated with cottage cheese, but several confirmed cases and outbreaks in the EU and the US have been related to dairy products made from raw...... or pasteurised milk. This, in combination with the fact that cottage cheese support growth of Listeria monocytogenes, induces a documentation requirement on the food producer. In the EU regulatory framework, mathematical models are recognised as a suitable supplement to traditional microbiological methods...... was clearly important to include when predicting growth response of Listeria monocytogenes in fermented dairy products. Alternative, semi-mechanistic, iimodelling approaches were evaluated based on methods applied in the fermentation technology. The dynamics of lactic acid concentration and product p...

  12. Prediction of mill performance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    P.A. Bennett [CoalTech Pty Ltd. (Australia)

    2005-07-01

    This Australian Coal Association Research Program (ACARP) project aimed to demonstrate that the Hardgrove Grindability Index (HGI) coupled with standard Petrographic Analysis can be used to greatly improve the prediction of mill power requirements, mill throughput and product size. The project examined the mill test data from ACIRL's pilot scale vertical spindle mill on 96 coals. A total of 360 mill tests, conducted under a wide range of throughputs, roll pressures and classifier settings, were included into the data set. The mill performance of maceral groups or microlithotypes was assumed to be additive, that is, each maceral group or microlithotype behaved independently and a size fraction of the product PF was the volume weighted sum of the petrographic components of that size fraction. Based on this assumption it was possible to determine the size distribution of the product PF, for a wide range of milling conditions, based solely on petrographic analysis. Microlithotypes were not determined directly but were estimated from the maceral analysis. The size distribution of individual maceral groups or microlithotypes can also be estimated based on developed correlations. Size distribution determined from petrographic analysis proved to be a better estimate than that determined from the HGI. Mill power can be estimated from petrographic analysis, but the HGI was found to be a better predictor of mill power. 19 refs., 4 figs., 1 tab.

  13. Long Range Aircraft Trajectory Prediction

    OpenAIRE

    Magister, Tone

    2009-01-01

    The subject of the paper is the improvement of the aircraft future trajectory prediction accuracy for long-range airborne separation assurance. The strategic planning of safe aircraft flights and effective conflict avoidance tactics demand timely and accurate conflict detection based upon future four–dimensional airborne traffic situation prediction which is as accurate as each aircraft flight trajectory prediction. The improved kinematics model of aircraft relative flight considering flight ...

  14. Prospects for decadal climate prediction

    OpenAIRE

    Keenlyside, Noel; Ba, Jin

    2010-01-01

    During the last decade, global surface temperatures did not increase as rapidly as in the preceding decades. Although relatively small compared to the observed centennial scale global warming, it has renewed interest in understanding and even predicting climate on time scales of decades, and sparked a community initiative on near‐term prediction that will feature in the fifth intergovernmental panel on climate change assessment report. Decadal prediction, however, is in its infancy, with only...

  15. Melanoma risk prediction models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nikolić Jelena

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Background/Aim. The lack of effective therapy for advanced stages of melanoma emphasizes the importance of preventive measures and screenings of population at risk. Identifying individuals at high risk should allow targeted screenings and follow-up involving those who would benefit most. The aim of this study was to identify most significant factors for melanoma prediction in our population and to create prognostic models for identification and differentiation of individuals at risk. Methods. This case-control study included 697 participants (341 patients and 356 controls that underwent extensive interview and skin examination in order to check risk factors for melanoma. Pairwise univariate statistical comparison was used for the coarse selection of the most significant risk factors. These factors were fed into logistic regression (LR and alternating decision trees (ADT prognostic models that were assessed for their usefulness in identification of patients at risk to develop melanoma. Validation of the LR model was done by Hosmer and Lemeshow test, whereas the ADT was validated by 10-fold cross-validation. The achieved sensitivity, specificity, accuracy and AUC for both models were calculated. The melanoma risk score (MRS based on the outcome of the LR model was presented. Results. The LR model showed that the following risk factors were associated with melanoma: sunbeds (OR = 4.018; 95% CI 1.724- 9.366 for those that sometimes used sunbeds, solar damage of the skin (OR = 8.274; 95% CI 2.661-25.730 for those with severe solar damage, hair color (OR = 3.222; 95% CI 1.984-5.231 for light brown/blond hair, the number of common naevi (over 100 naevi had OR = 3.57; 95% CI 1.427-8.931, the number of dysplastic naevi (from 1 to 10 dysplastic naevi OR was 2.672; 95% CI 1.572-4.540; for more than 10 naevi OR was 6.487; 95%; CI 1.993-21.119, Fitzpatricks phototype and the presence of congenital naevi. Red hair, phototype I and large congenital naevi were

  16. Predicting periodontitis progression?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferraiolo, Debra M

    2016-03-01

    Cochrane Library, Ovid, Medline, Embase and LILACS were searched using no language restrictions and included information up to July 2014. Bibliographic references of included articles and related review articles were hand searched. On-line hand searching of recent issues of key periodontal journals was performed (Journal of Clinical Periodontology, Journal of Dental Research, Journal of Periodontal Research, Journal of Periodontology, Oral Health and Preventive Dentistry). Prospective and retrospective cohort studies were used for answering the question of prediction since there were no randomised controlled trials on this topic. Risk of bias was assessed using the validated Newcastle-Ottawa quality assessment scale for non-randomised studies. Cross-sectional studies were included in the summary of currently reported risk assessment tools but not for risk of progression of disease, due to the inability to properly assess bias in these types of studies. Titles and abstracts were scanned by two reviewers independently.Full reports were obtained for those articles meeting inclusion criteria or those with insufficient information in the title to make a decision. Any published risk assessment tool was considered. The tool was defined to include any composite measure of patient-level risk directed towards determining the probability for further disease progression in adults with periodontitis. Periodontitis was defined to include both chronic and aggressive forms in the adult population. Outcomes included changes in attachment levels and/or deepening of periodontal pockets in millimeters in study populations undergoing supportive periodontal therapy. Data extraction was performed independently and in collaboration by two reviewers; completed evidence tables were reviewed by three reviewers. Studies were each given a descriptive summary to assess the quantity of data as well as further assessment of study variations within study characteristics. This also allowed for

  17. Dividend Predictability Around the World

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rangvid, Jesper; Schmeling, Maik; Schrimpf, Andreas

    We show that dividend growth predictability by the dividend yield is the rule rather than the exception in global equity markets. Dividend predictability is weaker, however, in large and developed markets where dividends are smoothed more, the typical firm is large, and volatility is lower. Our...... findings suggest that the apparent lack of dividend predictability in the U.S. does not uniformly extend to other countries. Rather, cross-country patterns in dividend predictability are driven by differences in firm characteristics and the extent to which dividends are smoothed....

  18. Total Ozone Prediction: Stratospheric Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackman, Charles H.; Kawa, S. Ramdy; Douglass, Anne R.

    2003-01-01

    The correct prediction of total ozone as a function of latitude and season is extremely important for global models. This exercise tests the ability of a particular model to simulate ozone. The ozone production (P) and loss (L) will be specified from a well- established global model and will be used in all GCMs for subsequent prediction of ozone. This is the "B-3 Constrained Run" from M&MII. The exercise mostly tests a model stratospheric dynamics in the prediction of total ozone. The GCM predictions will be compared and contrasted with TOMS measurements.

  19. Predictability of Forced Lorenz Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Baosheng; Ding, Ruiqiang; Li, Jianping; Zhong, Quanjia

    2017-04-01

    Based on the nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent (NLLE) approach, the influences of external forcing on the predictability are studied in the Lorenz systems with constant and quasi-periodic forces in this paper. The results indicate that for the Lorenz systems with constant and quasi-periodic forces, their predictability limits increase with the forcing strength. With the same magnitude and different directions, the constant or quasi-periodic forcing shows different effects on the predictability limit in the Lorenz system, and these effects become significant with the increase of the forcing strength. Generally speaking, the positive forcing leads to a higher predictability limit than the negative forcing. Therefore, when we think about the effects of positive and negative elements and phases in the atmosphere and ocean research, the predictability problems driven by different phases should be considered separately. In addition, the influences of constant and quasi-periodic forces on the predictability are different in the Lorenz system. The effect of the constant forcing on the predictability is mainly reflected in the linear phase of error growth, while the nonlinear phase should also be considered for the situation of the quasi-periodic forcing. The predictability limit of the system under constant forcing is longer than the system under quasi-periodic forcing. These results based on simple chaotic model could provide insight into the studies of the actual atmosphere predictability.

  20. Prediction based on mean subset

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Øjelund, Henrik; Brown, P. J.; Madsen, Henrik

    2002-01-01

    , it is found that the proposed mean subset method has superior prediction performance than prediction based on the best subset method, and in some settings also better than the ridge regression and lasso methods. The conclusions drawn from the Monte Carlo study is corroborated in an example in which prediction......Shrinkage methods have traditionally been applied in prediction problems. In this article we develop a shrinkage method (mean subset) that forms an average of regression coefficients from individual subsets of the explanatory variables. A Bayesian approach is taken to derive an expression of how...

  1. Predicting Financial Crime: Augmenting the Predictive Policing Arsenal

    OpenAIRE

    Lavigne, Sam; Clifton, Brian; Tseng, Francis

    2017-01-01

    Financial crime is a rampant but hidden threat. In spite of this, predictive policing systems disproportionately target "street crime" rather than white collar crime. This paper presents the White Collar Crime Early Warning System (WCCEWS), a white collar crime predictive model that uses random forest classifiers to identify high risk zones for incidents of financial crime.

  2. Predicting epileptic seizures in advance.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Negin Moghim

    Full Text Available Epilepsy is the second most common neurological disorder, affecting 0.6-0.8% of the world's population. In this neurological disorder, abnormal activity of the brain causes seizures, the nature of which tend to be sudden. Antiepileptic Drugs (AEDs are used as long-term therapeutic solutions that control the condition. Of those treated with AEDs, 35% become resistant to medication. The unpredictable nature of seizures poses risks for the individual with epilepsy. It is clearly desirable to find more effective ways of preventing seizures for such patients. The automatic detection of oncoming seizures, before their actual onset, can facilitate timely intervention and hence minimize these risks. In addition, advance prediction of seizures can enrich our understanding of the epileptic brain. In this study, drawing on the body of work behind automatic seizure detection and prediction from digitised Invasive Electroencephalography (EEG data, a prediction algorithm, ASPPR (Advance Seizure Prediction via Pre-ictal Relabeling, is described. ASPPR facilitates the learning of predictive models targeted at recognizing patterns in EEG activity that are in a specific time window in advance of a seizure. It then exploits advanced machine learning coupled with the design and selection of appropriate features from EEG signals. Results, from evaluating ASPPR independently on 21 different patients, suggest that seizures for many patients can be predicted up to 20 minutes in advance of their onset. Compared to benchmark performance represented by a mean S1-Score (harmonic mean of Sensitivity and Specificity of 90.6% for predicting seizure onset between 0 and 5 minutes in advance, ASPPR achieves mean S1-Scores of: 96.30% for prediction between 1 and 6 minutes in advance, 96.13% for prediction between 8 and 13 minutes in advance, 94.5% for prediction between 14 and 19 minutes in advance, and 94.2% for prediction between 20 and 25 minutes in advance.

  3. Quadratic prediction of factor scores

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wansbeek, T

    1999-01-01

    Factor scores are naturally predicted by means of their conditional expectation given the indicators y. Under normality this expectation is linear in y but in general it is an unknown function of y. II is discussed that under nonnormality factor scores can be more precisely predicted by a quadratic

  4. The Challenge of Weather Prediction

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    weather and climate prediction. His interests include understanding variability and predictability of all tropical phenomena including the monsoon. B N Goswami .... change the global average annual mean surface temperature Ts' the external solar forcing ..... Colombia, Toronto, London, Sydney. p 532, 1981. •. A Miller, J C ...

  5. Predictions for Excited Strange Baryons

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fernando, Ishara P.; Goity, Jose L. [Thomas Jefferson National Accelerator Facility (TJNAF), Newport News, VA (United States)

    2016-04-01

    An assessment is made of predictions for excited hyperon masses which follow from flavor symmetry and consistency with a 1/N c expansion of QCD. Such predictions are based on presently established baryonic resonances. Low lying hyperon resonances which do not seem to fit into the proposed scheme are discussed.

  6. Decadal climate prediction (project GCEP).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haines, Keith; Hermanson, Leon; Liu, Chunlei; Putt, Debbie; Sutton, Rowan; Iwi, Alan; Smith, Doug

    2009-03-13

    Decadal prediction uses climate models forced by changing greenhouse gases, as in the International Panel for Climate Change, but unlike longer range predictions they also require initialization with observations of the current climate. In particular, the upper-ocean heat content and circulation have a critical influence. Decadal prediction is still in its infancy and there is an urgent need to understand the important processes that determine predictability on these timescales. We have taken the first Hadley Centre Decadal Prediction System (DePreSys) and implemented it on several NERC institute compute clusters in order to study a wider range of initial condition impacts on decadal forecasting, eventually including the state of the land and cryosphere. The eScience methods are used to manage submission and output from the many ensemble model runs required to assess predictive skill. Early results suggest initial condition skill may extend for several years, even over land areas, but this depends sensitively on the definition used to measure skill, and alternatives are presented. The Grid for Coupled Ensemble Prediction (GCEP) system will allow the UK academic community to contribute to international experiments being planned to explore decadal climate predictability.

  7. Predicting landslides in clearcut patches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raymond M. Rice; Norman H. Pillsbury

    1982-01-01

    Abstract - Accelerated erosion in the form of landslides can be an undesirable consequence of clearcut logging on steep slopes. Forest managers need a method of predicting the risk of such erosion. Data collected after logging in a granitic area of northwestern California were used to develop a predictive equation. A linear discriminant function was developed that...

  8. The Challenge of Weather Prediction

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    B N Goswami is with the. Centre for Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences at the Indian Institute of. Science, Bangalore. After his PhD in Plasma Physics he was attracted to this field by the challenges in weather and climate prediction. His interests include understanding variability and predictability of all tropical phenomena.

  9. Dividend Predictability Around the World

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rangvid, Jesper; Schmeling, Maik; Schrimpf, Andreas

    2014-01-01

    We show that dividend-growth predictability by the dividend yield is the rule rather than the exception in global equity markets. Dividend predictability is weaker, however, in large and developed markets where dividends are smoothed more, the typical firm is large, and volatility is lower. Our f...

  10. Prediction models in complex terrain

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Marti, I.; Nielsen, Torben Skov; Madsen, Henrik

    2001-01-01

    The objective of the work is to investigatethe performance of HIRLAM in complex terrain when used as input to energy production forecasting models, and to develop a statistical model to adapt HIRLAM prediction to the wind farm. The features of the terrain, specially the topography, influence...... the performance of HIRLAM in particular with respect to wind predictions. To estimate the performance of the model two spatial resolutions (0,5 Deg. and 0.2 Deg.) and different sets of HIRLAM variables were used to predict wind speed and energy production. The predictions of energy production for the wind farms...... are calculated using on-line measurements of power production as well as HIRLAM predictions as input thus taking advantage of the auto-correlation, which is present in the power production for shorter pediction horizons. Statistical models are used to discribe the relationship between observed energy production...

  11. Prediction of molecular crystal structures

    CERN Document Server

    Beyer, T

    2001-01-01

    The ab initio prediction of molecular crystal structures is a scientific challenge. Reliability of first-principle prediction calculations would show a fundamental understanding of crystallisation. Crystal structure prediction is also of considerable practical importance as different crystalline arrangements of the same molecule in the solid state (polymorphs)are likely to have different physical properties. A method of crystal structure prediction based on lattice energy minimisation has been developed in this work. The choice of the intermolecular potential and of the molecular model is crucial for the results of such studies and both of these criteria have been investigated. An empirical atom-atom repulsion-dispersion potential for carboxylic acids has been derived and applied in a crystal structure prediction study of formic, benzoic and the polymorphic system of tetrolic acid. As many experimental crystal structure determinations at different temperatures are available for the polymorphic system of parac...

  12. Slip Prediction through Tactile Sensing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Somrak PETCHARTEE

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper introduces a new way to predict contact slip using a resistive tactile sensor. The prototype sensor can be used to provide intrinsic information relating to geometrical features situated on the surface of grasped objects. Information along the gripper finger surface is obtained with a measurement resolution dependant on the number of discrete tactile elements. The tactile sensor predicts the partial slip of a tactile surface by sensing micro vibrations in tangential forces which are caused by an expansion of the slip regions within the contact area. The location of the local slip is not specified but its occurrence can be predicted immediately following micro vibration detection. Predictive models have been used to develop a set of rules which predict the slip based on fluctuations in tactile signal data.

  13. Predictive Biomarkers for Asthma Therapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medrek, Sarah K; Parulekar, Amit D; Hanania, Nicola A

    2017-09-19

    Asthma is a heterogeneous disease characterized by multiple phenotypes. Treatment of patients with severe disease can be challenging. Predictive biomarkers are measurable characteristics that reflect the underlying pathophysiology of asthma and can identify patients that are likely to respond to a given therapy. This review discusses current knowledge regarding predictive biomarkers in asthma. Recent trials evaluating biologic therapies targeting IgE, IL-5, IL-13, and IL-4 have utilized predictive biomarkers to identify patients who might benefit from treatment. Other work has suggested that using composite biomarkers may offer enhanced predictive capabilities in tailoring asthma therapy. Multiple biomarkers including sputum eosinophil count, blood eosinophil count, fractional concentration of nitric oxide in exhaled breath (FeNO), and serum periostin have been used to identify which patients will respond to targeted asthma medications. Further work is needed to integrate predictive biomarkers into clinical practice.

  14. Psychometric prediction of penitentiary recidivism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medina García, Pedro M; Baños Rivera, Rosa M

    2016-05-01

    Attempts to predict prison recidivism based on the personality have not been very successful. This study aims to provide data on recidivism prediction based on the scores on a personality questionnaire. For this purpose, a predictive model combining the actuarial procedure with a posteriori probability was developed, consisting of the probabilistic calculation of the effective verification of the event once it has already occurred. Cuestionario de Personalidad Situacional (CPS; Fernández, Seisdedos, & Mielgo, 1998) was applied to 978 male inmates classified as recidivists or non-recidivists. High predictive power was achieved, with the area under the curve (AUC) of 0.85 (p <.001; Se = 0.012; 95% CI [0.826, 0.873]. The answers to the CPS items made it possible to properly discriminate 77.3% of the participants. These data indicate the important role of the personality as a key factor in understanding delinquency and predicting recidivism.

  15. Dividend Predictability around the World

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rangvid, Jesper; Schmeling, Maik; Schrimpf, Andreas

    demonstrate that aggregate dividend growth rates are highly predictable by the dividend yield and that dividend predictability is clearly stronger than return predictability in medium-sized and smaller countries that account for the majority of countries in the world. We show that this is true both...... in the time-series dimension (time variation in dividend yields strongly predicts future dividend growth rates) and in the cross- country dimension (sorting countries into portfolios depending on their lagged dividend yield produces a spread in dividend growth rates of more than 20% p.a.). In an economic...... assessment of this finding, we show that cash flow predictability is stronger in smaller and medium- sized countries because these countries also have more volatile cash flow growth and higher idiosyncratic return volatility....

  16. Are abrupt climate changes predictable?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ditlevsen, Peter

    2013-04-01

    It is taken for granted that the limited predictability in the initial value problem, the weather prediction, and the predictability of the statistics are two distinct problems. Lorenz (1975) dubbed this predictability of the first and the second kind respectively. Predictability of the first kind in a chaotic dynamical system is limited due to the well-known critical dependence on initial conditions. Predictability of the second kind is possible in an ergodic system, where either the dynamics is known and the phase space attractor can be characterized by simulation or the system can be observed for such long times that the statistics can be obtained from temporal averaging, assuming that the attractor does not change in time. For the climate system the distinction between predictability of the first and the second kind is fuzzy. This difficulty in distinction between predictability of the first and of the second kind is related to the lack of scale separation between fast and slow components of the climate system. The non-linear nature of the problem furthermore opens the possibility of multiple attractors, or multiple quasi-steady states. As the ice-core records show, the climate has been jumping between different quasi-stationary climates, stadials and interstadials through the Dansgaard-Oechger events. Such a jump happens very fast when a critical tipping point has been reached. The question is: Can such a tipping point be predicted? This is a new kind of predictability: the third kind. If the tipping point is reached through a bifurcation, where the stability of the system is governed by some control parameter, changing in a predictable way to a critical value, the tipping is predictable. If the sudden jump occurs because internal chaotic fluctuations, noise, push the system across a barrier, the tipping is as unpredictable as the triggering noise. In order to hint at an answer to this question, a careful analysis of the high temporal resolution NGRIP isotope

  17. Predictive Manufacturing: A Classification Strategy to Predict Product Failures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Khan, Abdul Rauf; Schiøler, Henrik; Kulahci, Murat

    2018-01-01

    manufacturing analytics model that employs a big data approach to predicting product failures; third, we illustrate the issue of high dimensionality, along with statistically redundant information; and, finally, our proposed method will be compared against the well-known classification methods (SVM, K......-nearest neighbor, artificial neural networks). The results from real data show that our predictive manufacturing analytics approach, using genetic algorithms and Voronoi tessellations, is capable of predicting product failure with reasonable accuracy. The potential application of this method contributes......Predicting failures can be considered a meaningful insight for the optimal planning of an industrial manufacturing process. In this era of advanced sensor technologies, when the collection of data from each step of the manufacturing process is common practice and advanced analytical skills enable...

  18. Collective motion of predictive swarms.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nathaniel Rupprecht

    Full Text Available Theoretical models of populations and swarms typically start with the assumption that the motion of agents is governed by the local stimuli. However, an intelligent agent, with some understanding of the laws that govern its habitat, can anticipate the future, and make predictions to gather resources more efficiently. Here we study a specific model of this kind, where agents aim to maximize their consumption of a diffusing resource, by attempting to predict the future of a resource field and the actions of other agents. Once the agents make a prediction, they are attracted to move towards regions that have, and will have, denser resources. We find that the further the agents attempt to see into the future, the more their attempts at prediction fail, and the less resources they consume. We also study the case where predictive agents compete against non-predictive agents and find the predictors perform better than the non-predictors only when their relative numbers are very small. We conclude that predictivity pays off either when the predictors do not see too far into the future or the number of predictors is small.

  19. The Theory of Linear Prediction

    CERN Document Server

    Vaidyanathan, PP

    2007-01-01

    Linear prediction theory has had a profound impact in the field of digital signal processing. Although the theory dates back to the early 1940s, its influence can still be seen in applications today. The theory is based on very elegant mathematics and leads to many beautiful insights into statistical signal processing. Although prediction is only a part of the more general topics of linear estimation, filtering, and smoothing, this book focuses on linear prediction. This has enabled detailed discussion of a number of issues that are normally not found in texts. For example, the theory of vecto

  20. Adaptive filtering prediction and control

    CERN Document Server

    Goodwin, Graham C

    2009-01-01

    Preface1. Introduction to Adaptive TechniquesPart 1. Deterministic Systems2. Models for Deterministic Dynamical Systems3. Parameter Estimation for Deterministic Systems4. Deterministic Adaptive Prediction5. Control of Linear Deterministic Systems6. Adaptive Control of Linear Deterministic SystemsPart 2. Stochastic Systems7. Optimal Filtering and Prediction8. Parameter Estimation for Stochastic Dynamic Systems9. Adaptive Filtering and Prediction10. Control of Stochastic Systems11. Adaptive Control of Stochastic SystemsAppendicesA. A Brief Review of Some Results from Systems TheoryB. A Summary o

  1. Practical aspects of geological prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mallio, W.J.; Peck, J.H.

    1981-01-01

    Nuclear waste disposal requires that geology be a predictive science. The prediction of future events rests on (1) recognizing the periodicity of geologic events; (2) defining a critical dimension of effect, such as the area of a drainage basin, the length of a fault trace, etc; and (3) using our understanding of active processes the project the frequency and magnitude of future events in the light of geological principles. Of importance to nuclear waste disposal are longer term processes such as continental denudation and removal of materials by glacial erosion. Constant testing of projections will allow the practical limits of predicting geological events to be defined. 11 refs

  2. Predicting emergency diesel starting performance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    DeBey, T.M.

    1989-01-01

    The US Department of Energy effort to extend the operational lives of commercial nuclear power plants has examined methods for predicting the performance of specific equipment. This effort focuses on performance prediction as a means for reducing equipment surveillance, maintenance, and outages. Realizing these goals will result in nuclear plants that are more reliable, have lower maintenance costs, and have longer lives. This paper describes a monitoring system that has been developed to predict starting performance in emergency diesels. A prototype system has been built and tested on an engine at Sandia National Laboratories. 2 refs

  3. Predictions models with neural nets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vladimír Konečný

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available The contribution is oriented to basic problem trends solution of economic pointers, using neural networks. Problems include choice of the suitable model and consequently configuration of neural nets, choice computational function of neurons and the way prediction learning. The contribution contains two basic models that use structure of multilayer neural nets and way of determination their configuration. It is postulate a simple rule for teaching period of neural net, to get most credible prediction.Experiments are executed with really data evolution of exchange rate Kč/Euro. The main reason of choice this time series is their availability for sufficient long period. In carry out of experiments the both given basic kind of prediction models with most frequent use functions of neurons are verified. Achieve prediction results are presented as in numerical and so in graphical forms.

  4. Trading Network Predicts Stock Price

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Xiao-Qian; Shen, Hua-Wei; Cheng, Xue-Qi

    2014-01-01

    Stock price prediction is an important and challenging problem for studying financial markets. Existing studies are mainly based on the time series of stock price or the operation performance of listed company. In this paper, we propose to predict stock price based on investors' trading behavior. For each stock, we characterize the daily trading relationship among its investors using a trading network. We then classify the nodes of trading network into three roles according to their connectivity pattern. Strong Granger causality is found between stock price and trading relationship indices, i.e., the fraction of trading relationship among nodes with different roles. We further predict stock price by incorporating these trading relationship indices into a neural network based on time series of stock price. Experimental results on 51 stocks in two Chinese Stock Exchanges demonstrate the accuracy of stock price prediction is significantly improved by the inclusion of trading relationship indices.

  5. Fatigue life prediction in composites

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Huston, RJ

    1994-01-01

    Full Text Available epoxy were used to test residual strength and residual stiffness models. Further fatigue tests were carried out under spectrum loading so that the results could be correlated with the cumulative damage predicted by the residual strength model....

  6. In silico prediction of genotoxicity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wichard, Jörg D

    2017-08-01

    The in silico prediction of genotoxicity has made considerable progress during the last years. The main driver for the pharmaceutical industry is the ICH M7 guideline about the assessment of DNA reactive impurities. An important component of this guideline is the use of in silico models as an alternative approach to experimental testing. The in silico prediction of genotoxicity provides an established and accepted method that defines the first step in the assessment of DNA reactive impurities. This was made possible by the growing amount of reliable Ames screening data, the attempts to understand the activity pathways and the subsequent development of computer-based prediction systems. This paper gives an overview of how the in silico prediction of genotoxicity is performed under the ICH M7 guideline. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. EPRI MOV performance prediction program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hosler, J.F.; Damerell, P.S.; Eidson, M.G.; Estep, N.E.

    1994-01-01

    An overview of the EPRI Motor-Operated Valve (MOV) Performance Prediction Program is presented. The objectives of this Program are to better understand the factors affecting the performance of MOVs and to develop and validate methodologies to predict MOV performance. The Program involves valve analytical modeling, separate-effects testing to refine the models, and flow-loop and in-plant MOV testing to provide a basis for model validation. The ultimate product of the Program is an MOV Performance Prediction Methodology applicable to common gate, globe, and butterfly valves. The methodology predicts thrust and torque requirements at design-basis flow and differential pressure conditions, assesses the potential for gate valve internal damage, and provides test methods to quantify potential for gate valve internal damage, and provides test methods to quantify potential variations in actuator output thrust with loading condition. Key findings and their potential impact on MOV design and engineering application are summarized

  8. Dynamical Predictability of Monthly Means.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shukla, J.

    1981-12-01

    We have attempted to determine the theoretical upper limit of dynamical predictability of monthly means for prescribed nonfluctuating external forcings. We have extended the concept of `classical' predictability, which primarily refers to the lack of predictability due mainly to the instabilities of synoptic-scale disturbances, to the predictability of time averages, which are determined by the predictability of low-frequency planetary waves. We have carded out 60-day integrations of a global general circulation model with nine different initial conditions but identical boundary conditions of sea surface temperature, snow, sea ice and soil moisture. Three of these initial conditions are the observed atmospheric conditions on 1 January of 1975, 1976 and 1977. The other six initial conditions are obtained by superimposing over the observed initial conditions a random perturbation comparable to the errors of observation. The root-mean-square (rms) error of random perturbations at all the grid points and all the model levels is 3 m s1 in u and v components of wind. The rms vector wind error between the observed initial conditions is >15 m s1.It is hypothesized that for a given averaging period, if the rms error among the time averages predicted from largely different initial conditions becomes comparable to the rms error among the time averages predicted from randomly perturbed initial conditions, the time averages are dynamically unpredictable. We have carried out the analysis of variance to compare the variability, among the three groups, due to largely different initial conditions, and within each group due to random perturbations.It is found that the variances among the first 30-day means, predicted from largely different initial conditions, are significantly different from the variances due to random perturbations in the initial conditions, whereas the variances among 30-day means for days 31-60 are not distinguishable from the variances due to random initial

  9. Improving Predictive Accuracy in Elections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sathiaraj, David; Cassidy, William M; Rohli, Eric

    2017-12-01

    The problem of accurately predicting vote counts in elections is considered in this article. Typically, small-sample polls are used to estimate or predict election outcomes. In this study, a machine-learning hybrid approach is proposed. This approach utilizes multiple sets of static data sources, such as voter registration data, and dynamic data sources, such as polls and donor data, to develop individualized voter scores for each member of the population. These voter scores are used to estimate expected vote counts under different turnout scenarios. The proposed technique has been tested with data collected during U.S. Senate and Louisiana gubernatorial elections. The predicted results (expected vote counts, predicted several days before the actual election) were accurate within 1%.

  10. Data for decay Heat Predictions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1987-01-01

    These proceedings of a specialists' meeting on data for decay heat predictions are based on fission products yields, on delayed neutrons and on comparative evaluations on evaluated and experimental data for thermal and fast fission. Fourteen conferences were analysed

  11. Time-predictable Stack Caching

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Abbaspourseyedi, Sahar

    completely. Thus, in systems with hard deadlines the worst-case execution time (WCET) of the real-time software running on them needs to be bounded. Modern architectures use features such as pipelining and caches for improving the average performance. These features, however, make the WCET analysis more...... addresses, provides an opportunity to predict and tighten the WCET of accesses to data in caches. In this thesis, we introduce the time-predictable stack cache design and implementation within a time-predictable processor. We introduce several optimizations to our design for tightening the WCET while...... keeping the timepredictability of the design intact. Moreover, we provide a solution for reducing the cost of context switching in a system using the stack cache. In design of these caches, we use custom hardware and compiler support for delivering time-predictable stack data accesses. Furthermore...

  12. Predictive Models and Computational Embryology

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA’s ‘virtual embryo’ project is building an integrative systems biology framework for predictive models of developmental toxicity. One schema involves a knowledge-driven adverse outcome pathway (AOP) framework utilizing information from public databases, standardized ontologies...

  13. Trading network predicts stock price.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Xiao-Qian; Shen, Hua-Wei; Cheng, Xue-Qi

    2014-01-16

    Stock price prediction is an important and challenging problem for studying financial markets. Existing studies are mainly based on the time series of stock price or the operation performance of listed company. In this paper, we propose to predict stock price based on investors' trading behavior. For each stock, we characterize the daily trading relationship among its investors using a trading network. We then classify the nodes of trading network into three roles according to their connectivity pattern. Strong Granger causality is found between stock price and trading relationship indices, i.e., the fraction of trading relationship among nodes with different roles. We further predict stock price by incorporating these trading relationship indices into a neural network based on time series of stock price. Experimental results on 51 stocks in two Chinese Stock Exchanges demonstrate the accuracy of stock price prediction is significantly improved by the inclusion of trading relationship indices.

  14. Human Behavior is Extremely Predictable

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Deo, Simon

    The basic goal of the sciences is to point to, and explain, emergent phenomena: what we would not have guessed given what we knew before. This lack of predictability can come from a change of scale (more is different; physics), a change of descriptive language (lost in translation; the human sciences), or just patience on the part of the observer (self-organization; biology). Nothing worth knowing can be predicted...

  15. Prediction of molecular crystal structures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Beyer, Theresa

    2001-07-01

    The ab initio prediction of molecular crystal structures is a scientific challenge. Reliability of first-principle prediction calculations would show a fundamental understanding of crystallisation. Crystal structure prediction is also of considerable practical importance as different crystalline arrangements of the same molecule in the solid state (polymorphs)are likely to have different physical properties. A method of crystal structure prediction based on lattice energy minimisation has been developed in this work. The choice of the intermolecular potential and of the molecular model is crucial for the results of such studies and both of these criteria have been investigated. An empirical atom-atom repulsion-dispersion potential for carboxylic acids has been derived and applied in a crystal structure prediction study of formic, benzoic and the polymorphic system of tetrolic acid. As many experimental crystal structure determinations at different temperatures are available for the polymorphic system of paracetamol (acetaminophen), the influence of the variations of the molecular model on the crystal structure lattice energy minima, has also been studied. The general problem of prediction methods based on the assumption that the experimental thermodynamically stable polymorph corresponds to the global lattice energy minimum, is that more hypothetical low lattice energy structures are found within a few kJ mol{sup -1} of the global minimum than are likely to be experimentally observed polymorphs. This is illustrated by the results for molecule I, 3-oxabicyclo(3.2.0)hepta-1,4-diene, studied for the first international blindtest for small organic crystal structures organised by the Cambridge Crystallographic Data Centre (CCDC) in May 1999. To reduce the number of predicted polymorphs, additional factors to thermodynamic criteria have to be considered. Therefore the elastic constants and vapour growth morphologies have been calculated for the lowest lattice energy

  16. Predictive markers of radiation pneumonitis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Provatopoulou, X; Athanasiou, E; Gounaris, A

    2008-01-01

    Radiation pneumonitis is an acute-phase response to radiation therapy and a common complication that affects a patient's quality of life. Under the need to reduce the incidence and severity of radiation-induced pulmonary complications as well as to identify patients at risk, several investigations on potential predictive markers of radiation pneumonitis have been conducted. The present study reviews the currently available knowledge on biomolecules of potential predictive value for radiation pneumonitis.

  17. Predictive coding in Agency Detection

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Marc Malmdorf

    2017-01-01

    Agency detection is a central concept in the cognitive science of religion (CSR). Experimental studies, however, have so far failed to lend support to some of the most common predictions that follow from current theories on agency detection. In this article, I argue that predictive coding, a high...... for the effects of culture on the detection of supernatural agency and a range of other religious and spiritual perceptual phenomena....

  18. Prediction of interannual climate variations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shukla, J.

    1993-01-01

    It has been known for some time that the behavior of the short-term fluctuations of the earth's atmosphere resembles that of a chaotic non-linear dynamical system, and that the day-to-day weather cannot be predicted beyond a few weeks. However, it has also been found that the interactions of the atmosphere with the underlying oceans and the land surfaces can produce fluctuations whose time scales are much longer than the limits of deterministic prediction of weather. It is, therefore, natural to ask whether it is possible that the seasonal and longer time averages of climate fluctuations can be predicted with sufficient skill to be beneficial for social and economic applications, even though the details of day-to-day weather cannot be predicted beyond a few weeks. The main objective of the workshop was to address this question by assessing the current state of knowledge on predictability of seasonal and interannual climate variability and to investigate various possibilities for its prediction. (orig./KW)

  19. Prediction of highly cited papers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newman, M. E. J.

    2014-01-01

    In an article in the pages of this journal five years ago, we described a method for predicting which scientific papers will be highly cited in the future, even if they are currently not highly cited. Applying the method to real citation data we made predictions about papers we believed would end up being well cited. Here we revisit those predictions, five years on, to see how well we did. Among the over 2000 papers in our original data set, we examine the fifty that, by the measures of our previous study, were predicted to do best and we find that they have indeed received substantially more citations in the intervening years than other papers, even after controlling for the number of prior citations. On average these top fifty papers have received 23 times as many citations in the last five years as the average paper in the data set as a whole, and 15 times as many as the average paper in a randomly drawn control group that started out with the same number of citations. Applying our prediction technique to current data, we also make new predictions of papers that we believe will be well cited in the next few years.

  20. Reward positivity: Reward prediction error or salience prediction error?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heydari, Sepideh; Holroyd, Clay B

    2016-08-01

    The reward positivity is a component of the human ERP elicited by feedback stimuli in trial-and-error learning and guessing tasks. A prominent theory holds that the reward positivity reflects a reward prediction error signal that is sensitive to outcome valence, being larger for unexpected positive events relative to unexpected negative events (Holroyd & Coles, 2002). Although the theory has found substantial empirical support, most of these studies have utilized either monetary or performance feedback to test the hypothesis. However, in apparent contradiction to the theory, a recent study found that unexpected physical punishments also elicit the reward positivity (Talmi, Atkinson, & El-Deredy, 2013). The authors of this report argued that the reward positivity reflects a salience prediction error rather than a reward prediction error. To investigate this finding further, in the present study participants navigated a virtual T maze and received feedback on each trial under two conditions. In a reward condition, the feedback indicated that they would either receive a monetary reward or not and in a punishment condition the feedback indicated that they would receive a small shock or not. We found that the feedback stimuli elicited a typical reward positivity in the reward condition and an apparently delayed reward positivity in the punishment condition. Importantly, this signal was more positive to the stimuli that predicted the omission of a possible punishment relative to stimuli that predicted a forthcoming punishment, which is inconsistent with the salience hypothesis. © 2016 Society for Psychophysiological Research.

  1. Generalized Predictive and Neural Generalized Predictive Control of Aerospace Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelkar, Atul G.

    2000-01-01

    The research work presented in this thesis addresses the problem of robust control of uncertain linear and nonlinear systems using Neural network-based Generalized Predictive Control (NGPC) methodology. A brief overview of predictive control and its comparison with Linear Quadratic (LQ) control is given to emphasize advantages and drawbacks of predictive control methods. It is shown that the Generalized Predictive Control (GPC) methodology overcomes the drawbacks associated with traditional LQ control as well as conventional predictive control methods. It is shown that in spite of the model-based nature of GPC it has good robustness properties being special case of receding horizon control. The conditions for choosing tuning parameters for GPC to ensure closed-loop stability are derived. A neural network-based GPC architecture is proposed for the control of linear and nonlinear uncertain systems. A methodology to account for parametric uncertainty in the system is proposed using on-line training capability of multi-layer neural network. Several simulation examples and results from real-time experiments are given to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology.

  2. Weighted-Average Least Squares Prediction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Magnus, Jan R.; Wang, Wendun; Zhang, Xinyu

    2016-01-01

    Prediction under model uncertainty is an important and difficult issue. Traditional prediction methods (such as pretesting) are based on model selection followed by prediction in the selected model, but the reported prediction and the reported prediction variance ignore the uncertainty from the

  3. The predictive consequences of parameterization

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, J.; Hughes, J. D.; Doherty, J. E.

    2013-12-01

    In numerical groundwater modeling, parameterization is the process of selecting the aspects of a computer model that will be allowed to vary during history matching. This selection process is dependent on professional judgment and is, therefore, inherently subjective. Ideally, a robust parameterization should be commensurate with the spatial and temporal resolution of the model and should include all uncertain aspects of the model. Limited computing resources typically require reducing the number of adjustable parameters so that only a subset of the uncertain model aspects are treated as estimable parameters; the remaining aspects are treated as fixed parameters during history matching. We use linear subspace theory to develop expressions for the predictive error incurred by fixing parameters. The predictive error is comprised of two terms. The first term arises directly from the sensitivity of a prediction to fixed parameters. The second term arises from prediction-sensitive adjustable parameters that are forced to compensate for fixed parameters during history matching. The compensation is accompanied by inappropriate adjustment of otherwise uninformed, null-space parameter components. Unwarranted adjustment of null-space components away from prior maximum likelihood values may produce bias if a prediction is sensitive to those components. The potential for subjective parameterization choices to corrupt predictions is examined using a synthetic model. Several strategies are evaluated, including use of piecewise constant zones, use of pilot points with Tikhonov regularization and use of the Karhunen-Loeve transformation. The best choice of parameterization (as defined by minimum error variance) is strongly dependent on the types of predictions to be made by the model.

  4. Geophysical Anomalies and Earthquake Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson, D. D.

    2008-12-01

    Finding anomalies is easy. Predicting earthquakes convincingly from such anomalies is far from easy. Why? Why have so many beautiful geophysical abnormalities not led to successful prediction strategies? What is earthquake prediction? By my definition it is convincing information that an earthquake of specified size is temporarily much more likely than usual in a specific region for a specified time interval. We know a lot about normal earthquake behavior, including locations where earthquake rates are higher than elsewhere, with estimable rates and size distributions. We know that earthquakes have power law size distributions over large areas, that they cluster in time and space, and that aftershocks follow with power-law dependence on time. These relationships justify prudent protective measures and scientific investigation. Earthquake prediction would justify exceptional temporary measures well beyond those normal prudent actions. Convincing earthquake prediction would result from methods that have demonstrated many successes with few false alarms. Predicting earthquakes convincingly is difficult for several profound reasons. First, earthquakes start in tiny volumes at inaccessible depth. The power law size dependence means that tiny unobservable ones are frequent almost everywhere and occasionally grow to larger size. Thus prediction of important earthquakes is not about nucleation, but about identifying the conditions for growth. Second, earthquakes are complex. They derive their energy from stress, which is perniciously hard to estimate or model because it is nearly singular at the margins of cracks and faults. Physical properties vary from place to place, so the preparatory processes certainly vary as well. Thus establishing the needed track record for validation is very difficult, especially for large events with immense interval times in any one location. Third, the anomalies are generally complex as well. Electromagnetic anomalies in particular require

  5. Neural Elements for Predictive Coding

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stewart SHIPP

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Predictive coding theories of sensory brain function interpret the hierarchical construction of the cerebral cortex as a Bayesian, generative model capable of predicting the sensory data consistent with any given percept. Predictions are fed backwards in the hierarchy and reciprocated by prediction error in the forward direction, acting to modify the representation of the outside world at increasing levels of abstraction, and so to optimize the nature of perception over a series of iterations. This accounts for many ‘illusory’ instances of perception where what is seen (heard, etc is unduly influenced by what is expected, based on past experience. This simple conception, the hierarchical exchange of prediction and prediction error, confronts a rich cortical microcircuitry that is yet to be fully documented. This article presents the view that, in the current state of theory and practice, it is profitable to begin a two-way exchange: that predictive coding theory can support an understanding of cortical microcircuit function, and prompt particular aspects of future investigation, whilst existing knowledge of microcircuitry can, in return, influence theoretical development. As an example, a neural inference arising from the earliest formulations of predictive coding is that the source populations of forwards and backwards pathways should be completely separate, given their functional distinction; this aspect of circuitry – that neurons with extrinsically bifurcating axons do not project in both directions – has only recently been confirmed. Here, the computational architecture prescribed by a generalized (free-energy formulation of predictive coding is combined with the classic ‘canonical microcircuit’ and the laminar architecture of hierarchical extrinsic connectivity to produce a template schematic, that is further examined in the light of (a updates in the microcircuitry of primate visual cortex, and (b rapid technical advances made

  6. Neural Elements for Predictive Coding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shipp, Stewart

    2016-01-01

    Predictive coding theories of sensory brain function interpret the hierarchical construction of the cerebral cortex as a Bayesian, generative model capable of predicting the sensory data consistent with any given percept. Predictions are fed backward in the hierarchy and reciprocated by prediction error in the forward direction, acting to modify the representation of the outside world at increasing levels of abstraction, and so to optimize the nature of perception over a series of iterations. This accounts for many 'illusory' instances of perception where what is seen (heard, etc.) is unduly influenced by what is expected, based on past experience. This simple conception, the hierarchical exchange of prediction and prediction error, confronts a rich cortical microcircuitry that is yet to be fully documented. This article presents the view that, in the current state of theory and practice, it is profitable to begin a two-way exchange: that predictive coding theory can support an understanding of cortical microcircuit function, and prompt particular aspects of future investigation, whilst existing knowledge of microcircuitry can, in return, influence theoretical development. As an example, a neural inference arising from the earliest formulations of predictive coding is that the source populations of forward and backward pathways should be completely separate, given their functional distinction; this aspect of circuitry - that neurons with extrinsically bifurcating axons do not project in both directions - has only recently been confirmed. Here, the computational architecture prescribed by a generalized (free-energy) formulation of predictive coding is combined with the classic 'canonical microcircuit' and the laminar architecture of hierarchical extrinsic connectivity to produce a template schematic, that is further examined in the light of (a) updates in the microcircuitry of primate visual cortex, and (b) rapid technical advances made possible by transgenic neural

  7. Phosphorylation site prediction in plants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yao, Qiuming; Schulze, Waltraud X; Xu, Dong

    2015-01-01

    Protein phosphorylation events on serine, threonine, and tyrosine residues are the most pervasive protein covalent bond modifications in plant signaling. Both low and high throughput studies reveal the importance of phosphorylation in plant molecular biology. Although becoming more and more common, the proteome-wide screening on phosphorylation by experiments remains time consuming and costly. Therefore, in silico prediction methods are proposed as a complementary analysis tool to enhance the phosphorylation site identification, develop biological hypothesis, or help experimental design. These methods build statistical models based on the experimental data, and they do not have some of the technical-specific bias, which may have advantage in proteome-wide analysis. More importantly computational methods are very fast and cheap to run, which makes large-scale phosphorylation identifications very practical for any types of biological study. Thus, the phosphorylation prediction tools become more and more popular. In this chapter, we will focus on plant specific phosphorylation site prediction tools, with essential illustration of technical details and application guidelines. We will use Musite, PhosPhAt and PlantPhos as the representative tools. We will present the results on the prediction of the Arabidopsis protein phosphorylation events to give users a general idea of the performance range of the three tools, together with their strengths and limitations. We believe these prediction tools will contribute more and more to the plant phosphorylation research community.

  8. Quantifying prognosis with risk predictions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pace, Nathan L; Eberhart, Leopold H J; Kranke, Peter R

    2012-01-01

    Prognosis is a forecast, based on present observations in a patient, of their probable outcome from disease, surgery and so on. Research methods for the development of risk probabilities may not be familiar to some anaesthesiologists. We briefly describe methods for identifying risk factors and risk scores. A probability prediction rule assigns a risk probability to a patient for the occurrence of a specific event. Probability reflects the continuum between absolute certainty (Pi = 1) and certified impossibility (Pi = 0). Biomarkers and clinical covariates that modify risk are known as risk factors. The Pi as modified by risk factors can be estimated by identifying the risk factors and their weighting; these are usually obtained by stepwise logistic regression. The accuracy of probabilistic predictors can be separated into the concepts of 'overall performance', 'discrimination' and 'calibration'. Overall performance is the mathematical distance between predictions and outcomes. Discrimination is the ability of the predictor to rank order observations with different outcomes. Calibration is the correctness of prediction probabilities on an absolute scale. Statistical methods include the Brier score, coefficient of determination (Nagelkerke R2), C-statistic and regression calibration. External validation is the comparison of the actual outcomes to the predicted outcomes in a new and independent patient sample. External validation uses the statistical methods of overall performance, discrimination and calibration and is uniformly recommended before acceptance of the prediction model. Evidence from randomised controlled clinical trials should be obtained to show the effectiveness of risk scores for altering patient management and patient outcomes.

  9. PREDICTING DEMAND FOR COTTON YARNS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SALAS-MOLINA Francisco

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Predicting demand for fashion products is crucial for textile manufacturers. In an attempt to both avoid out-of-stocks and minimize holding costs, different forecasting techniques are used by production managers. Both linear and non-linear time-series analysis techniques are suitable options for forecasting purposes. However, demand for fashion products presents a number of particular characteristics such as short life-cycles, short selling seasons, high impulse purchasing, high volatility, low predictability, tremendous product variety and a high number of stock-keeping-units. In this paper, we focus on predicting demand for cotton yarns using a non-linear forecasting technique that has been fruitfully used in many areas, namely, random forests. To this end, we first identify a number of explanatory variables to be used as a key input to forecasting using random forests. We consider explanatory variables usually labeled either as causal variables, when some correlation is expected between them and the forecasted variable, or as time-series features, when extracted from time-related attributes such as seasonality. Next, we evaluate the predictive power of each variable by means of out-of-sample accuracy measurement. We experiment on a real data set from a textile company in Spain. The numerical results show that simple time-series features present more predictive ability than other more sophisticated explanatory variables.

  10. Human motion simulation predictive dynamics

    CERN Document Server

    Abdel-Malek, Karim

    2013-01-01

    Simulate realistic human motion in a virtual world with an optimization-based approach to motion prediction. With this approach, motion is governed by human performance measures, such as speed and energy, which act as objective functions to be optimized. Constraints on joint torques and angles are imposed quite easily. Predicting motion in this way allows one to use avatars to study how and why humans move the way they do, given specific scenarios. It also enables avatars to react to infinitely many scenarios with substantial autonomy. With this approach it is possible to predict dynamic motion without having to integrate equations of motion -- rather than solving equations of motion, this approach solves for a continuous time-dependent curve characterizing joint variables (also called joint profiles) for every degree of freedom. Introduces rigorous mathematical methods for digital human modelling and simulation Focuses on understanding and representing spatial relationships (3D) of biomechanics Develops an i...

  11. Economic Culture and Prediction Markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Khalid N. Alhayyan

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available How do individual characteristics, such as economic culture, influence the trading behaviors and the acceptance of any consensus reached through prediction market mechanisms? This research explores variations in the usage of prediction (or information markets that are explained by some of the traders' cultural differences. Four forms of capitalism: state-guided, oligarchic, big-firm, and entrepreneurial, proposed by Baumol et al, are employed to capture aspects of traders' differences. To assess participants' economic culture along the spectrum of capitalist forms a survey instrument has been developed, validated, and tested. Moreover, several concepts related to trading participation, trading patterns, trader's overall performance and trader's acceptance of market outcomes are described and hypothesized against the economic culture forms. A series of research questions are proposed that explore how trader economic culture may affect prediction market use. The research landscape specified by Jones et al. is extended to recognize the potential differences between trader and market outcomes.

  12. Sweetness prediction of natural compounds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chéron, Jean-Baptiste; Casciuc, Iuri; Golebiowski, Jérôme; Antonczak, Serge; Fiorucci, Sébastien

    2017-04-15

    Based on the most exhaustive database of sweeteners with known sweetness values, a new quantitative structure-activity relationship model for sweetness prediction has been set up. Analysis of the physico-chemical properties of sweeteners in the database indicates that the structure of most potent sweeteners combines a hydrophobic scaffold functionalized by a limited number of hydrogen bond sites (less than 4 hydrogen bond donors and 10 acceptors), with a moderate molecular weight ranging from 350 to 450g·mol -1 . Prediction of sweetness, bitterness and toxicity properties of the largest database of natural compounds have been performed. In silico screening reveals that the majority of the predicted natural intense sweeteners comprise saponin or stevioside scaffolds. The model highlights that their sweetness potency is comparable to known natural sweeteners. The identified compounds provide a rational basis to initiate the design and chemosensory analysis of new low-calorie sweeteners. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Sentence-Level Attachment Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albakour, M.-Dyaa; Kruschwitz, Udo; Lucas, Simon

    Attachment prediction is the task of automatically identifying email messages that should contain an attachment. This can be useful to tackle the problem of sending out emails but forgetting to include the relevant attachment (something that happens all too often). A common Information Retrieval (IR) approach in analyzing documents such as emails is to treat the entire document as a bag of words. Here we propose a finer-grained analysis to address the problem. We aim at identifying individual sentences within an email that refer to an attachment. If we detect any such sentence, we predict that the email should have an attachment. Using part of the Enron corpus for evaluation we find that our finer-grained approach outperforms previously reported document-level attachment prediction in similar evaluation settings.

  14. BBN predictions for 4He

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Walker, T.P.

    1993-01-01

    The standard model of the hot big bang assumes a homogeneous and isotropic Universe with gravity described by General Relativity and strong and electroweak interactions described by the Standard Model of particle physics. The hot big bang model makes the unavoidable prediction that the production of primordial elements occurred about one minute after the big band (referred to as big bang or primordial nucleosynthesis BBN). This review concerns the range of the primordial abundance of 4 He as predicted by standard BBN (i.e., primordial nucleosynthesis assuming a homogeneous distribution of baryons). In it the author discusses: (1) Uncertainties in the calculation of Y p (the mass fraction of primordial 4 He), (2) The expected range of Y p , (3) How the predictions stack up against the latest observations, and (4) The latest BBN bounds on Ω B h 2 and N ν . 13 refs., 2 figs

  15. State-space predictive control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jens G. Balchen

    1992-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with a predictive control strategy based on state-space models. Important issues concerning inherent model identification and optimal control computation are briefly discussed. Predictive control relies heavily on a model with satisfactory predictive capabilities. An off-line identification procedure must be accomplished to obtain a proper model structure and a parameter set, which is required for on-line adjustment. The control calculation is based on a general performance index and parameterization of the control variables in a nonlinear model, which includes the relevant constraints. This results in a finite-dimensional optimization problem which can be repetitively solved on-line. Simulation studies on two very different, typical industrial processes are presented. The simulations show that this MPC technique offers a major improvement in the control of many industrial processes.

  16. Prediction, Regression and Critical Realism

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Næss, Petter

    2004-01-01

    This paper considers the possibility of prediction in land use planning, and the use of statistical research methods in analyses of relationships between urban form and travel behaviour. Influential writers within the tradition of critical realism reject the possibility of predicting social...... phenomena. This position is fundamentally problematic to public planning. Without at least some ability to predict the likely consequences of different proposals, the justification for public sector intervention into market mechanisms will be frail. Statistical methods like regression analyses are commonly...... seen as necessary in order to identify aggregate level effects of policy measures, but are questioned by many advocates of critical realist ontology. Using research into the relationship between urban structure and travel as an example, the paper discusses relevant research methods and the kinds...

  17. Evaluating the Predictive Value of Growth Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murphy, Daniel L.; Gaertner, Matthew N.

    2014-01-01

    This study evaluates four growth prediction models--projection, student growth percentile, trajectory, and transition table--commonly used to forecast (and give schools credit for) middle school students' future proficiency. Analyses focused on vertically scaled summative mathematics assessments, and two performance standards conditions (high…

  18. Evoked emotions predict food choice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dalenberg, Jelle R; Gutjar, Swetlana; Ter Horst, Gert J; de Graaf, Kees; Renken, Remco J; Jager, Gerry

    2014-01-01

    In the current study we show that non-verbal food-evoked emotion scores significantly improve food choice prediction over merely liking scores. Previous research has shown that liking measures correlate with choice. However, liking is no strong predictor for food choice in real life environments. Therefore, the focus within recent studies shifted towards using emotion-profiling methods that successfully can discriminate between products that are equally liked. However, it is unclear how well scores from emotion-profiling methods predict actual food choice and/or consumption. To test this, we proposed to decompose emotion scores into valence and arousal scores using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and apply Multinomial Logit Models (MLM) to estimate food choice using liking, valence, and arousal as possible predictors. For this analysis, we used an existing data set comprised of liking and food-evoked emotions scores from 123 participants, who rated 7 unlabeled breakfast drinks. Liking scores were measured using a 100-mm visual analogue scale, while food-evoked emotions were measured using 2 existing emotion-profiling methods: a verbal and a non-verbal method (EsSense Profile and PrEmo, respectively). After 7 days, participants were asked to choose 1 breakfast drink from the experiment to consume during breakfast in a simulated restaurant environment. Cross validation showed that we were able to correctly predict individualized food choice (1 out of 7 products) for over 50% of the participants. This number increased to nearly 80% when looking at the top 2 candidates. Model comparisons showed that evoked emotions better predict food choice than perceived liking alone. However, the strongest predictive strength was achieved by the combination of evoked emotions and liking. Furthermore we showed that non-verbal food-evoked emotion scores more accurately predict food choice than verbal food-evoked emotions scores.

  19. Ensemble method for dengue prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buczak, Anna L; Baugher, Benjamin; Moniz, Linda J; Bagley, Thomas; Babin, Steven M; Guven, Erhan

    2018-01-01

    In the 2015 NOAA Dengue Challenge, participants made three dengue target predictions for two locations (Iquitos, Peru, and San Juan, Puerto Rico) during four dengue seasons: 1) peak height (i.e., maximum weekly number of cases during a transmission season; 2) peak week (i.e., week in which the maximum weekly number of cases occurred); and 3) total number of cases reported during a transmission season. A dengue transmission season is the 12-month period commencing with the location-specific, historical week with the lowest number of cases. At the beginning of the Dengue Challenge, participants were provided with the same input data for developing the models, with the prediction testing data provided at a later date. Our approach used ensemble models created by combining three disparate types of component models: 1) two-dimensional Method of Analogues models incorporating both dengue and climate data; 2) additive seasonal Holt-Winters models with and without wavelet smoothing; and 3) simple historical models. Of the individual component models created, those with the best performance on the prior four years of data were incorporated into the ensemble models. There were separate ensembles for predicting each of the three targets at each of the two locations. Our ensemble models scored higher for peak height and total dengue case counts reported in a transmission season for Iquitos than all other models submitted to the Dengue Challenge. However, the ensemble models did not do nearly as well when predicting the peak week. The Dengue Challenge organizers scored the dengue predictions of the Challenge participant groups. Our ensemble approach was the best in predicting the total number of dengue cases reported for transmission season and peak height for Iquitos, Peru.

  20. Prediction of eyespot infection risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Váòová

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The objective of the study was to design a prediction model for eyespot (Tapesia yallundae infection based on climatic factors (temperature, precipitation, air humidity. Data from experiment years 1994-2002 were used to study correlations between the eyespot infection index and individual weather characteristics. The model of prediction was constructed using multiple regression when a separate parameter is assigned to each factor, i.e. the frequency of days with optimum temperatures, humidity, and precipitation. The correlation between relative air humidity and precipitation and the infection index is significant.

  1. Dinosaur Fossils Predict Body Temperatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, Andrew P; Charnov, Eric L

    2006-01-01

    Perhaps the greatest mystery surrounding dinosaurs concerns whether they were endotherms, ectotherms, or some unique intermediate form. Here we present a model that yields estimates of dinosaur body temperature based on ontogenetic growth trajectories obtained from fossil bones. The model predicts that dinosaur body temperatures increased with body mass from approximately 25 °C at 12 kg to approximately 41 °C at 13,000 kg. The model also successfully predicts observed increases in body temperature with body mass for extant crocodiles. These results provide direct evidence that dinosaurs were reptiles that exhibited inertial homeothermy. PMID:16817695

  2. Dinosaur fossils predict body temperatures.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James F Gillooly

    2006-07-01

    Full Text Available Perhaps the greatest mystery surrounding dinosaurs concerns whether they were endotherms, ectotherms, or some unique intermediate form. Here we present a model that yields estimates of dinosaur body temperature based on ontogenetic growth trajectories obtained from fossil bones. The model predicts that dinosaur body temperatures increased with body mass from approximately 25 degrees C at 12 kg to approximately 41 degrees C at 13,000 kg. The model also successfully predicts observed increases in body temperature with body mass for extant crocodiles. These results provide direct evidence that dinosaurs were reptiles that exhibited inertial homeothermy.

  3. Can we predict nuclear proliferation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tertrais, Bruno

    2011-01-01

    The author aims at improving nuclear proliferation prediction capacities, i.e. the capacities to identify countries susceptible to acquire nuclear weapons, to interpret sensitive activities, and to assess nuclear program modalities. He first proposes a retrospective assessment of counter-proliferation actions since 1945. Then, based on academic studies, he analyzes what causes and motivates proliferation, with notably the possibility of existence of a chain phenomenon (mechanisms driving from one program to another). He makes recommendations for a global approach to proliferation prediction, and proposes proliferation indices and indicators

  4. Calorimetry end-point predictions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fox, M.A.

    1981-01-01

    This paper describes a portion of the work presently in progress at Rocky Flats in the field of calorimetry. In particular, calorimetry end-point predictions are outlined. The problems associated with end-point predictions and the progress made in overcoming these obstacles are discussed. The two major problems, noise and an accurate description of the heat function, are dealt with to obtain the most accurate results. Data are taken from an actual calorimeter and are processed by means of three different noise reduction techniques. The processed data are then utilized by one to four algorithms, depending on the accuracy desired to determined the end-point

  5. Wind energy prediction; Prediccion eolica

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xiberta, B. J.; Florez, M. V. E.

    2004-07-01

    On March 12th, 2004 the Spanish Government modified the legal situation of the renewable energies following the approval of RD 436/2004. This makes necessary the development of wind energy prediction models for its entrance to the daily electricity market like the conventional energies. The improvement of physical models, meteorological models, or a combination of both, is necessary for the prediction of the wind generation. This will guarantee the wind energy full utilization and the participation in the electrical market, as well as the remuneration of the complementary services and the regulation of reactive electricity. In this way wind energy turns into a perfectly manageable one. (Author)

  6. HWVP melter lifetime prediction letter

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eyler, L.L.; Mahoney, L.A.; Elliott, M.L.

    1996-03-01

    Preliminary predictions were made of the time to reach hypothesized operational limits of the HWVP melter due to build up of a noble metals sludge layer on the melter floor. Predictions were made with the TEMPEST computer program, Version T2.9h, for use in the MPA activity in the Pacific Northwest Laboratory`s (PNL) Hanford Waste Vitrification Plant (HWVP) Technology Development (PHTD) effort. The NWEST computer program (Trent and Eyler 1993) is a PNL-MA-70/Part 2 -- Good Practices Standard (QA Level III) research and development software tool.

  7. CERAPP: Collaborative Estrogen Receptor Activity Prediction Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Data from a large-scale modeling project called CERAPP (Collaborative Estrogen Receptor Activity Prediction Project) demonstrating using predictive computational...

  8. Framework for Traffic Congestion Prediction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zaki, J.F.W.; Ali-Eldin, A.M.T.; Hussein, S.E.; Saraya, S.F.; Areed, F.F.

    2016-01-01

    Traffic Congestion is a complex dilemma facing most major cities. It has undergone a lot of research since the early 80s in an attempt to predict traffic in the short-term. Recently, Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) became an integral part of traffic research which helped in modeling and

  9. Solution Patterns Predicting Pythagorean Triples

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ezenweani, Ugwunna Louis

    2013-01-01

    Pythagoras Theorem is an old mathematical treatise that has traversed the school curricula from secondary to tertiary levels. The patterns it produced are quite interesting that many researchers have tried to generate a kind of predictive approach to identifying triples. Two attempts, namely Diophantine equation and Brahmagupta trapezium presented…

  10. Predictive models of moth development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Degree-day models link ambient temperature to insect life-stages, making such models valuable tools in integrated pest management. These models increase management efficacy by predicting pest phenology. In Wisconsin, the top insect pest of cranberry production is the cranberry fruitworm, Acrobasis v...

  11. Evoked Emotions Predict Food Choice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dalenberg, Jelle R.; Gutjar, Swetlana; ter Horst, Gert J.; de Graaf, Kees; Renken, Remco J.; Jager, Gerry

    2014-01-01

    In the current study we show that non-verbal food-evoked emotion scores significantly improve food choice prediction over merely liking scores. Previous research has shown that liking measures correlate with choice. However, liking is no strong predictor for food choice in real life environments.

  12. Predicting confidence in flashbulb memories.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Day, Martin V; Ross, Michael

    2014-01-01

    Years after a shocking news event many people confidently report details of their flashbulb memories (e.g., what they were doing). People's confidence is a defining feature of their flashbulb memories, but it is not well understood. We tested a model that predicted confidence in flashbulb memories. In particular we examined whether people's social bond with the target of a news event predicts confidence. At a first session shortly after the death of Michael Jackson participants reported their sense of attachment to Michael Jackson, as well as their flashbulb memories and emotional and other reactions to Jackson's death. At a second session approximately 18 months later they reported their flashbulb memories and confidence in those memories. Results supported our proposed model. A stronger sense of attachment to Jackson was related to reports of more initial surprise, emotion, and rehearsal during the first session. Participants' bond with Michael Jackson predicted their confidence but not the consistency of their flashbulb memories 18 months later. We also examined whether participants' initial forecasts regarding the persistence of their flashbulb memories predicted the durability of their memories. Participants' initial forecasts were more strongly related to participants' subsequent confidence than to the actual consistency of their memories.

  13. Bankruptcy Prediction with Rough Sets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J.C. Bioch (Cor); V. Popova (Viara)

    2001-01-01

    textabstractThe bankruptcy prediction problem can be considered an or dinal classification problem. The classical theory of Rough Sets describes objects by discrete attributes, and does not take into account the order- ing of the attributes values. This paper proposes a modification of the Rough Set

  14. Detecting failure of climate predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Runge, Michael C.; Stroeve, Julienne C.; Barrett, Andrew P.; McDonald-Madden, Eve

    2016-01-01

    The practical consequences of climate change challenge society to formulate responses that are more suited to achieving long-term objectives, even if those responses have to be made in the face of uncertainty1, 2. Such a decision-analytic focus uses the products of climate science as probabilistic predictions about the effects of management policies3. Here we present methods to detect when climate predictions are failing to capture the system dynamics. For a single model, we measure goodness of fit based on the empirical distribution function, and define failure when the distribution of observed values significantly diverges from the modelled distribution. For a set of models, the same statistic can be used to provide relative weights for the individual models, and we define failure when there is no linear weighting of the ensemble models that produces a satisfactory match to the observations. Early detection of failure of a set of predictions is important for improving model predictions and the decisions based on them. We show that these methods would have detected a range shift in northern pintail 20 years before it was actually discovered, and are increasingly giving more weight to those climate models that forecast a September ice-free Arctic by 2055.

  15. Multimodal Imaging Measures Predict Rearrest

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vaughn R Steele

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Rearrest has been predicted by hemodynamic activity in the anterior cingulate cortex (ACC during error-processing (Aharoni et al., 2013. Here we evaluate the predictive power after adding an additional imaging modality in a subsample of 45 incarcerated males from Aharoni et al. Event-related potentials (ERPs and hemodynamic activity were collected during a Go/NoGo response inhibition task. Neural measures of error-processing were obtained from the ACC and two ERP components, the error-related negativity (ERN/Ne and the error positivity (Pe. Measures from the Pe and ACC differentiated individuals who were and were not subsequently rearrested. Cox regression, logistic regression, and support vector machine (SVM neuroprediction models were calculated. Each of these models proved successful in predicting rearrest and SVM provided the strongest results. Multimodal neuroprediction SVM models with out of sample cross-validating accurately predicted rearrest (83.33%. Offenders with increased Pe amplitude and decreased ACC activation, suggesting abnormal error-processing, were at greatest risk of rearrest.

  16. Predicting Student Misconceptions in Science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fouché, Jaunine

    2015-01-01

    Two challenges science teachers face are identifying misconceptions students have about how the world operates and getting past those misconceptions. Students' prior conceptions often conflict with the content educators are trying to teach. The gateway to revealing and changing such misconceptions, Fouché says, is predictive questioning. As they…

  17. The Challenge of Weather Prediction

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Resonance – Journal of Science Education; Volume 2; Issue 3. The Challenge of Weather Prediction Old and Modern Ways of Weather Forecasting. B N Goswami. Series Article Volume 2 Issue 3 March 1997 pp 8-15. Fulltext. Click here to view fulltext PDF. Permanent link:

  18. Predicting Volleyball Serve-Reception

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Paulo, Ana; Zaal, Frank T J M; Fonseca, Sofia; Araujo, Duarte

    2016-01-01

    Serve and serve-reception performance have predicted success in volleyball. Given the impact of serve-reception on the game, we aimed at understanding what it is in the serve and receiver's actions that determines the selection of the type of pass used in serve-reception and its efficacy. Four

  19. TRITIUM RESERVOIR STRUCTURAL PERFORMANCE PREDICTION

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lam, P.S.; Morgan, M.J

    2005-11-10

    The burst test is used to assess the material performance of tritium reservoirs in the surveillance program in which reservoirs have been in service for extended periods of time. A materials system model and finite element procedure were developed under a Savannah River Site Plant-Directed Research and Development (PDRD) program to predict the structural response under a full range of loading and aged material conditions of the reservoir. The results show that the predicted burst pressure and volume ductility are in good agreement with the actual burst test results for the unexposed units. The material tensile properties used in the calculations were obtained from a curved tensile specimen harvested from a companion reservoir by Electric Discharge Machining (EDM). In the absence of exposed and aged material tensile data, literature data were used for demonstrating the methodology in terms of the helium-3 concentration in the metal and the depth of penetration in the reservoir sidewall. It can be shown that the volume ductility decreases significantly with the presence of tritium and its decay product, helium-3, in the metal, as was observed in the laboratory-controlled burst tests. The model and analytical procedure provides a predictive tool for reservoir structural integrity under aging conditions. It is recommended that benchmark tests and analysis for aged materials be performed. The methodology can be augmented to predict performance for reservoir with flaws.

  20. Can Creativity Predict Cognitive Reserve?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palmiero, Massimiliano; Di Giacomo, Dina; Passafiume, Domenico

    2016-01-01

    Cognitive reserve relies on the ability to effectively cope with aging and brain damage by using alternate processes to approach tasks when standard approaches are no longer available. In this study, the issue if creativity can predict cognitive reserve has been explored. Forty participants (mean age: 61 years) filled out: the Cognitive Reserve…

  1. Predictive medical information and underwriting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dodge, John H

    2007-01-01

    Medical underwriting involves the application of actuarial science by analyzing medical information to predict the future risk of a claim. The objective is that individuals with like risk are treated in a like manner so that the premium paid is proportional to the risk of future claim.

  2. Working postures: prediction and evaluation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Delleman, N.J.

    1999-01-01

    To date, workstation designers cannot see the effects of a design on working posture before a mock-up/prototype is available. At that moment, usually the margin for creating the conditions required for adopting favourable working postures is still very limited. Posture prediction at an early design

  3. Evaluation of environmental impact predictions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cunningham, P.A.; Adams, S.M.; Kumar, K.D.

    1977-01-01

    An analysis and evaluation of the ecological monitoring program at the Surry Nuclear Power Plant showed that predictions of potential environmental impact made in the Final Environmental Statement (FES), which were based on generally accepted ecological principles, were not completely substantiated by environmental monitoring data. The Surry Nuclear Power Plant (Units 1 and 2) was chosen for study because of the facility's relatively continuous operating history and the availability of environmental data adequate for analysis. Preoperational and operational fish monitoring data were used to assess the validity of the FES prediction that fish would congregate in the thermal plume during winter months and would avoid the plume during summer months. Analysis of monitoring data showed that fish catch per unit effort (CPE) was generally high in the thermal plume during winter months; however, the highest fish catches occurred in the plume during the summer. Possible explanations for differences between the FES prediction and results observed in analysis of monitoring data are discussed, and general recommendations are outlined for improving impact assessment predictions

  4. Predictability of weather and climate

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Palmer, Tim; Hagedorn, Renate

    2006-01-01

    ... and anthropogenic climate change are among those included. Ensemble systems for forecasting predictability are discussed extensively. Ed Lorenz, father of chaos theory, makes a contribution to theoretical analysis with a previously unpublished paper. This well-balanced volume will be a valuable resource for many years. High-quality chapter autho...

  5. Prediction of electric vehicle penetration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-05-01

    The object of this report is to present the current market status of plug-in-electric : vehicles (PEVs) and to predict their future penetration within the world and U.S. : markets. The sales values for 2016 show a strong year of PEV sales both in the...

  6. What do saliency models predict?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koehler, Kathryn; Guo, Fei; Zhang, Sheng; Eckstein, Miguel P.

    2014-01-01

    Saliency models have been frequently used to predict eye movements made during image viewing without a specified task (free viewing). Use of a single image set to systematically compare free viewing to other tasks has never been performed. We investigated the effect of task differences on the ability of three models of saliency to predict the performance of humans viewing a novel database of 800 natural images. We introduced a novel task where 100 observers made explicit perceptual judgments about the most salient image region. Other groups of observers performed a free viewing task, saliency search task, or cued object search task. Behavior on the popular free viewing task was not best predicted by standard saliency models. Instead, the models most accurately predicted the explicit saliency selections and eye movements made while performing saliency judgments. Observers' fixations varied similarly across images for the saliency and free viewing tasks, suggesting that these two tasks are related. The variability of observers' eye movements was modulated by the task (lowest for the object search task and greatest for the free viewing and saliency search tasks) as well as the clutter content of the images. Eye movement variability in saliency search and free viewing might be also limited by inherent variation of what observers consider salient. Our results contribute to understanding the tasks and behavioral measures for which saliency models are best suited as predictors of human behavior, the relationship across various perceptual tasks, and the factors contributing to observer variability in fixational eye movements. PMID:24618107

  7. Using Predictability for Lexical Segmentation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Çöltekin, Çağrı

    2017-09-01

    This study investigates a strategy based on predictability of consecutive sub-lexical units in learning to segment a continuous speech stream into lexical units using computational modeling and simulations. Lexical segmentation is one of the early challenges during language acquisition, and it has been studied extensively through psycholinguistic experiments as well as computational methods. However, despite strong empirical evidence, the explicit use of predictability of basic sub-lexical units in models of segmentation is underexplored. This paper presents an incremental computational model of lexical segmentation for exploring the usefulness of predictability for lexical segmentation. We show that the predictability cue is a strong cue for segmentation. Contrary to earlier reports in the literature, the strategy yields state-of-the-art segmentation performance with an incremental computational model that uses only this particular cue in a cognitively plausible setting. The paper also reports an in-depth analysis of the model, investigating the conditions affecting the usefulness of the strategy. Copyright © 2016 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

  8. Predictability of Mobile Phone Associations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Bjørn Sand; Larsen, Jan; Hansen, Lars Kai

    2010-01-01

    Prediction and understanding of human behavior is of high importance in many modern applications and research areas ranging from context-aware services, wireless resource allocation to social sciences. In this study we collect a novel dataset using standard mobile phones and analyze how the predi......Prediction and understanding of human behavior is of high importance in many modern applications and research areas ranging from context-aware services, wireless resource allocation to social sciences. In this study we collect a novel dataset using standard mobile phones and analyze how...... the predictability of mobile sensors, acting as proxies for humans, change with time scale and sensor type such as GSM and WLAN. Applying recent information theoretic methods, it is demonstrated that an upper bound on predictability is relatively high for all sensors given the complete history (typically above 90...... representation, and general behavior. This is of vital interest in the development of context-aware services which rely on forecasting based on mobile phone sensors....

  9. Prediction of Subsidence Depression Development

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Doležalová, Hana; Kajzar, Vlastimil

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 6, č. 4 (2017), s. 208-214 E-ISSN 2391-9361. [Cross-border Exchange of Experience in Production Engineering Using Principles of Mathematics. Rybnik, 07.06.2017-09.06.2017] Institutional support: RVO:68145535 Keywords : undermining * prediction * regression analysis Subject RIV: DH - Mining, incl. Coal Mining OBOR OECD: Mining and mineral processing

  10. Predicting the Divorce Rate: Down?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kemper, Theodore D.

    1983-01-01

    Predicted a decline in the divorce rate based on 10 factors including: decline in marriage rate, older age at marriage, mental health improvement, upper limit on employed women, less migration, end of the cultural revolution, exhaustion of latency effect of no-fault divorce, and fear of the consequences of divorce. (JAC)

  11. Prospects for Predicting Cycle 24

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    2016-01-27

    feeding' information about the polar field at the minima. Following this process, we find that our model fits the observed sunspot numbers of cycles 21–23 reasonably well and predicts that cycle 24 will be the weakest in a century.

  12. Predicting Character Traits Through Reddit

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-01-01

    and even employers (Res). Companies like Netflix also use personality classification algorithms in order to provide users with predictions of movies...science behind the netflix algorithms that decide what to watch next, August 2013. Reza Zafarani and Huan Liu. Evaluation without ground truth in social media research. Communications Of The ACM, 58(6):54–60, June 2015. 12

  13. Focus on astronomical predictable events

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jacobsen, Aase Roland

    2006-01-01

    At the Steno Museum Planetarium we have for many occasions used a countdown clock to get focus om astronomical events. A countdown clock can provide actuality to predictable events, for example The Venus Transit, Opportunity landing on Mars and The Solar Eclipse. The movement of the clock attracs...

  14. Cast iron - a predictable material

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jorg C. Sturm

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available High strength compacted graphite iron (CGI or alloyed cast iron components are substituting previously used non-ferrous castings in automotive power train applications. The mechanical engineering industry has recognized the value in substituting forged or welded structures with stiff and light-weight cast iron castings. New products such as wind turbines have opened new markets for an entire suite of highly reliable ductile iron cast components. During the last 20 years, casting process simulation has developed from predicting hot spots and solidification to an integral assessment tool for foundries for the entire manufacturing route of castings. The support of the feeding related layout of the casting is still one of the most important duties for casting process simulation. Depending on the alloy poured, different feeding behaviors and self-feeding capabilities need to be considered to provide a defect free casting. Therefore, it is not enough to base the prediction of shrinkage defects solely on hot spots derived from temperature fields. To be able to quantitatively predict these defects, solidification simulation had to be combined with density and mass transport calculations, in order to evaluate the impact of the solidification morphology on the feeding behavior as well as to consider alloy dependent feeding ranges. For cast iron foundries, the use of casting process simulation has become an important instrument to predict the robustness and reliability of their processes, especially since the influence of alloying elements, melting practice and metallurgy need to be considered to quantify the special shrinkage and solidification behavior of cast iron. This allows the prediction of local structures, phases and ultimately the local mechanical properties of cast irons, to asses casting quality in the foundry but also to make use of this quantitative information during design of the casting. Casting quality issues related to thermally driven

  15. Contextual predictability shapes signal autonomy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winters, James; Kirby, Simon; Smith, Kenny

    2018-03-10

    Aligning on a shared system of communication requires senders and receivers reach a balance between simplicity, where there is a pressure for compressed representations, and informativeness, where there is a pressure to be communicatively functional. We investigate the extent to which these two pressures are governed by contextual predictability: the amount of contextual information that a sender can estimate, and therefore exploit, in conveying their intended meaning. In particular, we test the claim that contextual predictability is causally related to signal autonomy: the degree to which a signal can be interpreted in isolation, without recourse to contextual information. Using an asymmetric communication game, where senders and receivers are assigned fixed roles, we manipulate two aspects of the referential context: (i) whether or not a sender shares access to the immediate contextual information used by the receiver in interpreting their utterance; (ii) the extent to which the relevant solution in the immediate referential context is generalisable to the aggregate set of contexts. Our results demonstrate that contextual predictability shapes the degree of signal autonomy: when the context is highly predictable (i.e., the sender has access to the context in which their utterances will be interpreted, and the semantic dimension which discriminates between meanings in context is consistent across communicative episodes), languages develop which rely heavily on the context to reduce uncertainty about the intended meaning. When the context is less predictable, senders favour systems composed of autonomous signals, where all potentially relevant semantic dimensions are explicitly encoded. Taken together, these results suggest that our pragmatic faculty, and how it integrates information from the context in reducing uncertainty, plays a central role in shaping language structure. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. Ocean eddies and climate predictability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirtman, Ben P; Perlin, Natalie; Siqueira, Leo

    2017-12-01

    A suite of coupled climate model simulations and experiments are used to examine how resolved mesoscale ocean features affect aspects of climate variability, air-sea interactions, and predictability. In combination with control simulations, experiments with the interactive ensemble coupling strategy are used to further amplify the role of the oceanic mesoscale field and the associated air-sea feedbacks and predictability. The basic intent of the interactive ensemble coupling strategy is to reduce the atmospheric noise at the air-sea interface, allowing an assessment of how noise affects the variability, and in this case, it is also used to diagnose predictability from the perspective of signal-to-noise ratios. The climate variability is assessed from the perspective of sea surface temperature (SST) variance ratios, and it is shown that, unsurprisingly, mesoscale variability significantly increases SST variance. Perhaps surprising is the fact that the presence of mesoscale ocean features even further enhances the SST variance in the interactive ensemble simulation beyond what would be expected from simple linear arguments. Changes in the air-sea coupling between simulations are assessed using pointwise convective rainfall-SST and convective rainfall-SST tendency correlations and again emphasize how the oceanic mesoscale alters the local association between convective rainfall and SST. Understanding the possible relationships between the SST-forced signal and the weather noise is critically important in climate predictability. We use the interactive ensemble simulations to diagnose this relationship, and we find that the presence of mesoscale ocean features significantly enhances this link particularly in ocean eddy rich regions. Finally, we use signal-to-noise ratios to show that the ocean mesoscale activity increases model estimated predictability in terms of convective precipitation and atmospheric upper tropospheric circulation.

  17. Predicting outcome of status epilepticus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leitinger, M; Kalss, G; Rohracher, A; Pilz, G; Novak, H; Höfler, J; Deak, I; Kuchukhidze, G; Dobesberger, J; Wakonig, A; Trinka, E

    2015-08-01

    Status epilepticus (SE) is a frequent neurological emergency complicated by high mortality and often poor functional outcome in survivors. The aim of this study was to review available clinical scores to predict outcome. Literature review. PubMed Search terms were "score", "outcome", and "status epilepticus" (April 9th 2015). Publications with abstracts available in English, no other language restrictions, or any restrictions concerning investigated patients were included. Two scores were identified: "Status Epilepticus Severity Score--STESS" and "Epidemiology based Mortality score in SE--EMSE". A comprehensive comparison of test parameters concerning performance, options, and limitations was performed. Epidemiology based Mortality score in SE allows detailed individualization of risk factors and is significantly superior to STESS in a retrospective explorative study. In particular, EMSE is very good at detection of good and bad outcome, whereas STESS detecting bad outcome is limited by a ceiling effect and uncertainty of correct cutoff value. Epidemiology based Mortality score in SE can be adapted to different regions in the world and to advances in medicine, as new data emerge. In addition, we designed a reporting standard for status epilepticus to enhance acquisition and communication of outcome relevant data. A data acquisition sheet used from patient admission in emergency room, from the EEG lab to intensive care unit, is provided for optimized data collection. Status Epilepticus Severity Score is easy to perform and predicts bad outcome, but has a low predictive value for good outcomes. Epidemiology based Mortality score in SE is superior to STESS in predicting good or bad outcome but needs marginally more time to perform. Epidemiology based Mortality score in SE may prove very useful for risk stratification in interventional studies and is recommended for individual outcome prediction. Prospective validation in different cohorts is needed for EMSE, whereas

  18. Ensemble streamflow predictions: from climate scenarios to probabilistic weather predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fortin, V.; Evora, N.; Perreault, L.; Trinh, N.; Favre, A.; Benoit, H.

    2004-05-01

    Ensemble streamflow predictions (ESP) are obtained by processing an ensemble of meteorological scenarios through a rainfall-runoff hydrological model to obtain hydrological scenarios. Until recently, these scenarios were typically taken from the climatology. Now that more accurate medium- and long-term numerical weather predictions (NWP) are available, it is tempting to replace climatology by numerical weather forecasts. At least two approaches are possible to take into account the uncerta1000 inty on the meteorological forecast: (1) let a meteorologist propose a subjective probabilistic forecast based on one or more deterministic NWPs, or (2) take advantage of ensemble meteorological forecasts, which are built precisely to assess the level of uncertainty on the deterministic forecast. Practical solutions to problems encountered with both types of meteorological forecasts are discussed, and the methodology used by Hydro-Québec to score the resulting streamflow forecasts is presented.

  19. Neural Networks for protein Structure Prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bohr, Henrik

    1998-01-01

    This is a review about neural network applications in bioinformatics. Especially the applications to protein structure prediction, e.g. prediction of secondary structures, prediction of surface structure, fold class recognition and prediction of the 3-dimensional structure of protein backbones...

  20. MPC-Relevant Prediction-Error Identification

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, John Bagterp; Jørgensen, Sten Bay

    2007-01-01

    A prediction-error-method tailored for model based predictive control is presented. The prediction-error method studied are based on predictions using the Kalman filter and Kalman predictors for a linear discrete-time stochastic state space model. The linear discrete-time stochastic state space m...

  1. Semen analysis and prediction of natural conception

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Leushuis, Esther; van der Steeg, Jan Willem; Steures, Pieternel; Repping, Sjoerd; Bossuyt, Patrick M. M.; Mol, Ben Willem J.; Hompes, Peter G. A.; van der Veen, Fulco

    2014-01-01

    Do two semen analyses predict natural conception better than a single semen analysis and will adding the results of repeated semen analyses to a prediction model for natural pregnancy improve predictions? A second semen analysis does not add helpful information for predicting natural conception

  2. Multiphase, multicomponent phase behavior prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dadmohammadi, Younas

    Accurate prediction of phase behavior of fluid mixtures in the chemical industry is essential for designing and operating a multitude of processes. Reliable generalized predictions of phase equilibrium properties, such as pressure, temperature, and phase compositions offer an attractive alternative to costly and time consuming experimental measurements. The main purpose of this work was to assess the efficacy of recently generalized activity coefficient models based on binary experimental data to (a) predict binary and ternary vapor-liquid equilibrium systems, and (b) characterize liquid-liquid equilibrium systems. These studies were completed using a diverse binary VLE database consisting of 916 binary and 86 ternary systems involving 140 compounds belonging to 31 chemical classes. Specifically the following tasks were undertaken: First, a comprehensive assessment of the two common approaches (gamma-phi (gamma-ϕ) and phi-phi (ϕ-ϕ)) used for determining the phase behavior of vapor-liquid equilibrium systems is presented. Both the representation and predictive capabilities of these two approaches were examined, as delineated form internal and external consistency tests of 916 binary systems. For the purpose, the universal quasi-chemical (UNIQUAC) model and the Peng-Robinson (PR) equation of state (EOS) were used in this assessment. Second, the efficacy of recently developed generalized UNIQUAC and the nonrandom two-liquid (NRTL) for predicting multicomponent VLE systems were investigated. Third, the abilities of recently modified NRTL model (mNRTL2 and mNRTL1) to characterize liquid-liquid equilibria (LLE) phase conditions and attributes, including phase stability, miscibility, and consolute point coordinates, were assessed. The results of this work indicate that the ϕ-ϕ approach represents the binary VLE systems considered within three times the error of the gamma-ϕ approach. A similar trend was observed for the for the generalized model predictions using

  3. Trastuzumab regulates IGFBP-2 and IGFBP-3 to mediate growth inhibition: implications for the development of predictive biomarkers for trastuzumab resistance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dokmanovic, Milos; Shen, Yi; Bonacci, Tabetha M; Hirsch, Dianne S; Wu, Wen Jin

    2011-06-01

    Activation of insulin-like growth factor-I receptor (IGF-IR) signaling is an important mechanism for trastuzumab resistance. IGF-binding proteins (IGFBP) modulate IGF-IR signaling and play important roles in the control of breast cancer progression. In this article, we report that trastuzumab treatment enhances the expression and secretion of IGFBP-3 in SKBR3 cells, a trastuzumab-sensitive breast cancer cell line, and that this upregulation of IGFBP-3 induced by trastuzumab correlates with trastuzumab-mediated growth inhibition. We describe a new role for IGFBP-3 in the regulation of IGF-I-mediated cross-talk between IGF-IR and ErbB2 signaling pathways. In particular, treatment of SKBR3 cells with recombinant IGFBP-3 blocks IGF-I-induced activation of IGF-IR and ErbB2, and stable expression of IGFBP-3 inhibits SKBR3 cell growth. We find an inverse relationship in the levels of secreted IGFBP-3 such that high levels of IGFBP-3 are associated with trastuzumab-sensitive breast cancer cells (SKBR3 and BT-474), whereas low levels of IGFBP-3 are found in trastuzumab-resistant cells (clone 3 and JIMT-1). In contrast to IGFBP-3, the secretion and expression of IGFBP-2 are upregulated in trastuzumab-resistant SKBR3 cells. Furthermore, we show that IGFBP-2 stimulates activation of ErbB2 and that trastuzumab reduces IGFBP-2-stimulated ErbB2 activation. Based on our data, we propose a novel mechanism of action whereby trastuzumab enhances the expression and secretion of IGFBP-3, which interferes with IGF-I-mediated mitogenic signaling via autocrine and paracrine mechanisms and reduces IGFBP-2-induced ErbB2 activation to mediate growth inhibition. Changes in secretion profiles of IGFBP-2 and IGFBP-3 in trastuzumab-sensitive and trastuzumab-resistant cells may promote the development of IGFBP-2 and IGFBP-3 as predictive biomarkers for trastuzumab resistance.

  4. Predictive Analytics in Information Systems Research

    OpenAIRE

    Shmueli, Galit; Koppius, Otto

    2011-01-01

    textabstractThis research essay highlights the need to integrate predictive analytics into information systems research and shows several concrete ways in which this goal can be accomplished. Predictive analytics include empirical methods (statistical and other) that generate data predictions as well as methods for assessing predictive power. Predictive analytics not only assist in creating practically useful models, they also play an important role alongside explanatory modeling in theory bu...

  5. Time-Predictable Virtual Memory

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Puffitsch, Wolfgang; Schoeberl, Martin

    2016-01-01

    Virtual memory is an important feature of modern computer architectures. For hard real-time systems, memory protection is a particularly interesting feature of virtual memory. However, current memory management units are not designed for time-predictability and therefore cannot be used...... in such systems. This paper investigates the requirements on virtual memory from the perspective of hard real-time systems and presents the design of a time-predictable memory management unit. Our evaluation shows that the proposed design can be implemented efficiently. The design allows address translation...... and address range checking in constant time of two clock cycles on a cache miss. This constant time is in strong contrast to the possible cost of a miss in a translation look-aside buffer in traditional virtual memory organizations. Compared to a platform without a memory management unit, these two additional...

  6. Time-Predictable Computer Architecture

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Schoeberl Martin

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Today's general-purpose processors are optimized for maximum throughput. Real-time systems need a processor with both a reasonable and a known worst-case execution time (WCET. Features such as pipelines with instruction dependencies, caches, branch prediction, and out-of-order execution complicate WCET analysis and lead to very conservative estimates. In this paper, we evaluate the issues of current architectures with respect to WCET analysis. Then, we propose solutions for a time-predictable computer architecture. The proposed architecture is evaluated with implementation of some features in a Java processor. The resulting processor is a good target for WCET analysis and still performs well in the average case.

  7. Serious Gaming for Predictive Analytics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Riensche, Roderick M.; Paulson, Patrick R.; Danielson, Gary R.; Unwin, Stephen D.; Butner, R. Scott; Miller, Sarah M.; Franklin, Lyndsey; Zuljevic, Nino

    2009-03-24

    We describe a methodology and architecture to support the development of games in a predictive analytics context. These games serve as part of an overall family of systems designed to gather input knowledge, calculate results of complex predictive technical and social models, and explore those results in an engaging fashion. The games provide an environment shaped and driven in part by the outputs of the models, allowing users to exert influence over a limited set of parameters, and displaying the results when those actions cause changes in the underlying model. We have crafted a prototype system in which we are implementing test versions of games driven by models in such a fashion, using a flexible architecture to allow for future continuation and expansion of this work.

  8. Algorithms for Protein Structure Prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Paluszewski, Martin

    ) and contact number (CN) measures only. We show that the HSE measure is much more information-rich than CN, nevertheless, HSE does not appear to provide enough information to reconstruct the C-traces of real-sized proteins. Our experiments also show that using tabu search (with our novel tabu definition......The problem of predicting the three-dimensional structure of a protein given its amino acid sequence is one of the most important open problems in bioinformatics. One of the carbon atoms in amino acids is the C-atom and the overall structure of a protein is often represented by a so-called C...... is competitive in quality and speed with other state-of-the-art decoy generation algorithms. Our third C-trace reconstruction approach is based on bee-colony optimization [24]. We demonstrate why this algorithm has some important properties that makes it suitable for protein structure prediction. Our approach...

  9. Predicting responses from Rasch measures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linacre, John M

    2010-01-01

    There is a growing family of Rasch models for polytomous observations. Selecting a suitable model for an existing dataset, estimating its parameters and evaluating its fit is now routine. Problems arise when the model parameters are to be estimated from the current data, but used to predict future data. In particular, ambiguities in the nature of the current data, or overfit of the model to the current dataset, may mean that better fit to the current data may lead to worse fit to future data. The predictive power of several Rasch and Rasch-related models are discussed in the context of the Netflix Prize. Rasch-related models are proposed based on Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) and Boltzmann Machines.

  10. Butterfly valve torque prediction methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eldiwany, B.H.; Sharma, V.; Kalsi, M.S.; Wolfe, K.

    1994-01-01

    As part of the Motor-Operated Valve (MOV) Performance Prediction Program, the Electric Power Research Institute has sponsored the development of methodologies for predicting thrust and torque requirements of gate, globe, and butterfly MOVs. This paper presents the methodology that will be used by utilities to calculate the dynamic torque requirements for butterfly valves. The total dynamic torque at any disc position is the sum of the hydrodynamic torque, bearing torque (which is induced by the hydrodynamic force), as well as other small torque components (such as packing torque). The hydrodynamic torque on the valve disc, caused by the fluid flow through the valve, depends on the disc angle, flow velocity, upstream flow disturbances, disc shape, and the disc aspect ratio. The butterfly valve model provides sets of nondimensional flow and torque coefficients that can be used to predict flow rate and hydrodynamic torque throughout the disc stroke and to calculate the required actuation torque and the maximum transmitted torque throughout the opening and closing stroke. The scope of the model includes symmetric and nonsymmetric discs of different shapes and aspects ratios in compressible and incompressible fluid applications under both choked and nonchoked flow conditions. The model features were validated against test data from a comprehensive flowloop and in situ test program. These tests were designed to systematically address the effect of the following parameters on the required torque: valve size, disc shapes and disc aspect ratios, upstream elbow orientation and its proximity, and flow conditions. The applicability of the nondimensional coefficients to valves of different sizes was validated by performing tests on 42-in. valve and a precisely scaled 6-in. model. The butterfly valve model torque predictions were found to bound test data from the flow-loop and in situ testing, as shown in the examples provided in this paper

  11. Predicting progression of Alzheimer's disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doody, Rachelle S; Pavlik, Valory; Massman, Paul; Rountree, Susan; Darby, Eveleen; Chan, Wenyaw

    2010-02-23

    Clinicians need to predict prognosis of Alzheimer's disease (AD), and researchers need models of progression to develop biomarkers and clinical trials designs. We tested a calculated initial progression rate to see whether it predicted performance on cognition, function and behavior over time, and to see whether it predicted survival. We used standardized approaches to assess baseline characteristics and to estimate disease duration, and calculated the initial (pre-progression) rate in 597 AD patients followed for up to 15 years. We designated slow, intermediate and rapidly progressing groups. Using mixed effects regression analysis, we examined the predictive value of a pre-progression group for longitudinal performance on standardized measures. We used Cox survival analysis to compare survival time by progression group. Patients in the slow and intermediate groups maintained better performance on the cognitive (ADAScog and VSAT), global (CDR-SB) and complex activities of daily living measures (IADL) (P values < 0.001 slow versus fast; P values < 0.003 to 0.03 intermediate versus fast). Interaction terms indicated that slopes of ADAScog and PSMS change for the slow group were smaller than for the fast group, and that rates of change on the ADAScog were also slower for the intermediate group, but that CDR-SB rates increased in this group relative to the fast group. Slow progressors survived longer than fast progressors (P = 0.024). A simple, calculated progression rate at the initial visit gives reliable information regarding performance over time on cognition, global performance and activities of daily living. The slowest progression group also survives longer. This baseline measure should be considered in the design of long duration Alzheimer's disease clinical trials.

  12. Dim prospects for earthquake prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geller, Robert J.

    I was misquoted by C. Lomnitz's [1998] Forum letter (Eos, August 4, 1998, p. 373), which said: [I wonder whether Sasha Gusev [1998] actually believes that branding earthquake prediction a ‘proven nonscience’ [Geller, 1997a] is a paradigm for others to copy.”Readers are invited to verify for themselves that neither “proven nonscience” norv any similar phrase was used by Geller [1997a].

  13. Asthma exacerbation prediction: recent insights.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fleming, Louise

    2018-04-01

    Asthma attacks are frequent in children with asthma and can lead to significant adverse outcomes including time off school, hospital admission and death. Identifying children at risk of an asthma attack affords the opportunity to prevent attacks and improve outcomes. Clinical features, patient behaviours and characteristics, physiological factors, environmental data and biomarkers are all associated with asthma attacks and can be used in asthma exacerbation prediction models. Recent studies have better characterized children at risk of an attack: history of a severe exacerbation in the previous 12 months, poor adherence and current poor control are important features which should alert healthcare professionals to the need for remedial action. There is increasing interest in the use of biomarkers. A number of novel biomarkers, including patterns of volatile organic compounds in exhaled breath, show promise. Biomarkers are likely to be of greatest utility if measured frequently and combined with other measures. To date, most prediction models are based on epidemiological data and population-based risk. The use of digital technology affords the opportunity to collect large amounts of real-time data, including clinical and physiological measurements and combine these with environmental data to develop personal risk scores. These developments need to be matched by changes in clinical guidelines away from a focus on current asthma control and stepwise escalation in drug therapy towards inclusion of personal risk scores and tailored management strategies including nonpharmacological approaches. There have been significant steps towards personalized prediction models of asthma attacks. The utility of such models needs to be tested in the ability not only to predict attacks but also to reduce them.

  14. Shoulder Dystocia: Prediction and Management

    OpenAIRE

    Hill, Meghan G; Cohen, Wayne R

    2016-01-01

    Shoulder dystocia is a complication of vaginal delivery and the primary factor associated with brachial plexus injury. In this review, we discuss the risk factors for shoulder dystocia and propose a framework for the prediction and prevention of the complication. A recommended approach to management when shoulder dystocia occurs is outlined, with review of the maneuvers used to relieve the obstruction with minimal risk of fetal and maternal injury.

  15. Shoulder dystocia: prediction and management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Meghan G; Cohen, Wayne R

    2016-01-01

    Shoulder dystocia is a complication of vaginal delivery and the primary factor associated with brachial plexus injury. In this review, we discuss the risk factors for shoulder dystocia and propose a framework for the prediction and prevention of the complication. A recommended approach to management when shoulder dystocia occurs is outlined, with review of the maneuvers used to relieve the obstruction with minimal risk of fetal and maternal injury.

  16. Nonparametric predictive inference in reliability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coolen, F.P.A.; Coolen-Schrijner, P.; Yan, K.J.

    2002-01-01

    We introduce a recently developed statistical approach, called nonparametric predictive inference (NPI), to reliability. Bounds for the survival function for a future observation are presented. We illustrate how NPI can deal with right-censored data, and discuss aspects of competing risks. We present possible applications of NPI for Bernoulli data, and we briefly outline applications of NPI for replacement decisions. The emphasis is on introduction and illustration of NPI in reliability contexts, detailed mathematical justifications are presented elsewhere

  17. Calibration of decadal ensemble predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pasternack, Alexander; Rust, Henning W.; Bhend, Jonas; Liniger, Mark; Grieger, Jens; Müller, Wolfgang; Ulbrich, Uwe

    2017-04-01

    Decadal climate predictions are of great socio-economic interest due to the corresponding planning horizons of several political and economic decisions. Due to uncertainties of weather and climate, forecasts (e.g. due to initial condition uncertainty), they are issued in a probabilistic way. One issue frequently observed for probabilistic forecasts is that they tend to be not reliable, i.e. the forecasted probabilities are not consistent with the relative frequency of the associated observed events. Thus, these kind of forecasts need to be re-calibrated. While re-calibration methods for seasonal time scales are available and frequently applied, these methods still have to be adapted for decadal time scales and its characteristic problems like climate trend and lead time dependent bias. Regarding this, we propose a method to re-calibrate decadal ensemble predictions that takes the above mentioned characteristics into account. Finally, this method will be applied and validated to decadal forecasts from the MiKlip system (Germany's initiative for decadal prediction).

  18. Predicting human gaze beyond pixels.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Juan; Jiang, Ming; Wang, Shuo; Kankanhalli, Mohan S; Zhao, Qi

    2014-01-28

    A large body of previous models to predict where people look in natural scenes focused on pixel-level image attributes. To bridge the semantic gap between the predictive power of computational saliency models and human behavior, we propose a new saliency architecture that incorporates information at three layers: pixel-level image attributes, object-level attributes, and semantic-level attributes. Object- and semantic-level information is frequently ignored, or only a few sample object categories are discussed where scaling to a large number of object categories is not feasible nor neurally plausible. To address this problem, this work constructs a principled vocabulary of basic attributes to describe object- and semantic-level information thus not restricting to a limited number of object categories. We build a new dataset of 700 images with eye-tracking data of 15 viewers and annotation data of 5,551 segmented objects with fine contours and 12 semantic attributes (publicly available with the paper). Experimental results demonstrate the importance of the object- and semantic-level information in the prediction of visual attention.

  19. Using Predictive Analytics to Predict Power Outages from Severe Weather

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wanik, D. W.; Anagnostou, E. N.; Hartman, B.; Frediani, M. E.; Astitha, M.

    2015-12-01

    The distribution of reliable power is essential to businesses, public services, and our daily lives. With the growing abundance of data being collected and created by industry (i.e. outage data), government agencies (i.e. land cover), and academia (i.e. weather forecasts), we can begin to tackle problems that previously seemed too complex to solve. In this session, we will present newly developed tools to aid decision-support challenges at electric distribution utilities that must mitigate, prepare for, respond to and recover from severe weather. We will show a performance evaluation of outage predictive models built for Eversource Energy (formerly Connecticut Light & Power) for storms of all types (i.e. blizzards, thunderstorms and hurricanes) and magnitudes (from 20 to >15,000 outages). High resolution weather simulations (simulated with the Weather and Research Forecast Model) were joined with utility outage data to calibrate four types of models: a decision tree (DT), random forest (RF), boosted gradient tree (BT) and an ensemble (ENS) decision tree regression that combined predictions from DT, RF and BT. The study shows that the ENS model forced with weather, infrastructure and land cover data was superior to the other models we evaluated, especially in terms of predicting the spatial distribution of outages. This research has the potential to be used for other critical infrastructure systems (such as telecommunications, drinking water and gas distribution networks), and can be readily expanded to the entire New England region to facilitate better planning and coordination among decision-makers when severe weather strikes.

  20. Mutant p53 regulates ovarian cancer transformed phenotypes through autocrine matrix deposition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iwanicki, Marcin P; Chen, Hsing-Yu; Iavarone, Claudia; Zervantonakis, Ioannis K; Muranen, Taru; Novak, Marián; Ince, Tan A; Drapkin, Ronny; Brugge, Joan S

    2016-07-07

    High-grade serous ovarian carcinoma (HGS-OvCa) harbors p53 mutations and can originate from the epithelial cell compartment of the fallopian tube fimbriae. From this site, neoplastic cells detach, survive in the peritoneal cavity, and form cellular clusters that intercalate into the mesothelium to form ovarian and peritoneal masses. To examine the contribution of mutant p53 to phenotypic alterations associated with HGS-OvCA, we developed live-cell microscopy assays that recapitulate these early events in cultured fallopian tube nonciliated epithelial (FNE) cells. Expression of stabilizing mutant variants of p53, but not depletion of endogenous wild-type p53, in FNE cells promoted survival and cell-cell aggregation under conditions of cell detachment, leading to the formation of cell clusters with mesothelium-intercalation capacity. Mutant p53 R175H -induced phenotypes were dependent on fibronectin production, α5β1 fibronectin receptor engagement, and TWIST1 expression. These results indicate that FNE cells expressing stabilizing p53 mutants acquire anchorage independence and subsequent mesothelial intercalation capacity through a mechanism involving mesenchymal transition and matrix production. These findings provide important new insights into activities of mutant p53 in the cells of origin of HGS-OvCa.

  1. CFTR impairment upregulates c-Src activity through IL-1β autocrine signaling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Massip-Copiz, María Macarena; Clauzure, Mariángeles; Valdivieso, Ángel Gabriel; Santa-Coloma, Tomás Antonio

    2017-02-15

    Cystic Fibrosis (CF) is a disease caused by mutations in the cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator (CFTR) gene. Previously, we found several genes showing a differential expression in CFDE cells (epithelial cells derived from a CF patient). One corresponded to c-Src; its expression and activity was found increased in CFDE cells, acting as a signaling molecule between the CFTR activity and MUC1 overexpression. Here we report that bronchial IB3-1 cells (CF cells) also showed increased c-Src activity compared to 'CFTR-corrected' S9 cells. In addition, three different Caco-2 cell lines, each stably transfected with a different CFTR-specific shRNAs, displayed increased c-Src activity. The IL-1β receptor antagonist IL1RN reduced the c-Src activity of Caco-2/pRS26 cells (expressing a CFTR-specific shRNA). In addition, increased mitochondrial and cellular ROS levels were detected in Caco-2/pRS26 cells. ROS levels were partially reduced by incubation with PP2 (c-Src inhibitor) or IL1RN, and further reduced by using the NOX1/4 inhibitor GKT137831. Thus, IL-1β→c-Src and IL-1β→NOX signaling pathways appear to be responsible for the production of cellular and mitochondrial ROS in CFTR-KD cells. In conclusion, IL-1β constitutes a new step in the CFTR signaling pathway, located upstream of c-Src, which is stimulated in cells with impaired CFTR activity. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Tachykinin acts upstream of autocrine Hedgehog signaling during nociceptive sensitization in Drosophila.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Im, Seol Hee; Takle, Kendra; Jo, Juyeon; Babcock, Daniel T; Ma, Zhiguo; Xiang, Yang; Galko, Michael J

    2015-11-17

    Pain signaling in vertebrates is modulated by neuropeptides like Substance P (SP). To determine whether such modulation is conserved and potentially uncover novel interactions between nociceptive signaling pathways we examined SP/Tachykinin signaling in a Drosophila model of tissue damage-induced nociceptive hypersensitivity. Tissue-specific knockdowns and genetic mutant analyses revealed that both Tachykinin and Tachykinin-like receptor (DTKR99D) are required for damage-induced thermal nociceptive sensitization. Electrophysiological recording showed that DTKR99D is required in nociceptive sensory neurons for temperature-dependent increases in firing frequency upon tissue damage. DTKR overexpression caused both behavioral and electrophysiological thermal nociceptive hypersensitivity. Hedgehog, another key regulator of nociceptive sensitization, was produced by nociceptive sensory neurons following tissue damage. Surprisingly, genetic epistasis analysis revealed that DTKR function was upstream of Hedgehog-dependent sensitization in nociceptive sensory neurons. Our results highlight a conserved role for Tachykinin signaling in regulating nociception and the power of Drosophila for genetic dissection of nociception.

  3. Activated alveolar epithelial cells initiate fibrosis through autocrine and paracrine secretion of connective tissue growth factor.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Jibing; Velikoff, Miranda; Canalis, Ernesto; Horowitz, Jeffrey C; Kim, Kevin K

    2014-04-15

    Fibrogenesis involves a pathological accumulation of activated fibroblasts and extensive matrix remodeling. Profibrotic cytokines, such as TGF-β, stimulate fibroblasts to overexpress fibrotic matrix proteins and induce further expression of profibrotic cytokines, resulting in progressive fibrosis. Connective tissue growth factor (CTGF) is a profibrotic cytokine that is indicative of fibroblast activation. Epithelial cells are abundant in the normal lung, but their contribution to fibrogenesis remains poorly defined. Profibrotic cytokines may activate epithelial cells with protein expression and functions that overlap with the functions of active fibroblasts. We found that alveolar epithelial cells undergoing TGF-β-mediated mesenchymal transition in vitro were also capable of activating lung fibroblasts through production of CTGF. Alveolar epithelial cell expression of CTGF was dramatically reduced by inhibition of Rho signaling. CTGF reporter mice demonstrated increased CTGF promoter activity by lung epithelial cells acutely after bleomycin in vivo. Furthermore, mice with lung epithelial cell-specific deletion of CTGF had an attenuated fibrotic response to bleomycin. These studies provide direct evidence that epithelial cell activation initiates a cycle of fibrogenic effector cell activation during progressive fibrosis. Therapy targeted at epithelial cell production of CTGF offers a novel pathway for abrogating this progressive cycle and limiting tissue fibrosis.

  4. Growth Hormone and Reproduction: A Review of Endocrine and Autocrine/Paracrine Interactions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hull, Kerry L.; Harvey, Steve

    2014-01-01

    The somatotropic axis, consisting of growth hormone (GH), hepatic insulin-like growth factor I (IGF-I), and assorted releasing factors, regulates growth and body composition. Axiomatically, since optimal body composition enhances reproductive function, general somatic actions of GH modulate reproductive function. A growing body of evidence supports the hypothesis that GH also modulates reproduction directly, exerting both gonadotropin-dependent and gonadotropin-independent actions in both males and females. Moreover, recent studies indicate GH produced within reproductive tissues differs from pituitary GH in terms of secretion and action. Accordingly, GH is increasingly used as a fertility adjunct in males and females, both humans and nonhumans. This review reconsiders reproductive actions of GH in vertebrates in respect to these new conceptual developments. PMID:25580121

  5. Alpha-tocopheryl succinate inhibits malignant mesothelioma by disrupting the fibroblast growth factor autocrine loop

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Stapelberg, M.; Gellert, N.; Swettenham, E.; Tomasetti, M.; Witting, P. K.; Procopio, A.; Neužil, Jiří

    2005-01-01

    Roč. 280, č. 27 (2005), s. 25369-25376 ISSN 0021-9258 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z50520514 Keywords : alpha-tocopheryl succinate * malignant mesothelioma * fibroblast growth factor Subject RIV: EB - Genetics ; Molecular Biology Impact factor: 5.854, year: 2005

  6. Both Autocrine Signaling and Paracrine Signaling of HB-EGF Enhance Ocular Neovascularization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Inoue, Yuki; Shimazawa, Masamitsu; Nakamura, Shinsuke; Takata, Shinsuke; Hashimoto, Yuhei; Izawa, Hiroshi; Masuda, Tomomi; Tsuruma, Kazuhiro; Sakaue, Tomohisa; Nakayama, Hironao; Higashiyama, Shigeki; Hara, Hideaki

    2018-01-01

    The incidence of blindness is increasing because of the increase in abnormal ocular neovascularization. Anti-VEGF (vascular endothelial growth factor) therapies have led to good results, although they are not a cure for the blindness. The purpose of this study was to determine what role HB-EGF (heparin-binding epidermal growth factor-like growth factor) plays in ocular angiogenesis. We examined the role played by HB-EGF in ocular neovascularization in 2 animal models of neovascularization: laser-induced choroidal neovascularization (CNV) and oxygen-induced retinopathy. We also studied human retinal microvascular endothelial cells in culture. Our results showed that the neovascularization was decreased in both the CNV and oxygen-induced retinopathy models in HB-EGF conditional knockout mice compared with that in wild-type mice. Moreover, the expressions of HB-EGF and VEGF were increased after laser-induced CNV and oxygen-induced retinopathy, and their expression sites were located around the neovascular areas. Exposure of human retinal microvascular endothelial cells to HB-EGF and VEGF increased their proliferation and migration, and CRM-197 (cross-reactive material-197), an HB-EGF inhibitor, decreased the HB-EGF-induced and VEGF-induced cell proliferation and migration. VEGF increased the expression of HB-EGF mRNA. VEGF-dependent activation of EGFR (epidermal growth factor receptor)/ERK1/2 (extracellular signal-regulated kinase 1/2) signaling and cell proliferation of endothelial cells required stimulation of the ADAM17 (a disintegrin and metalloprotease) and ADAM12. CRM-197 decreased the grades of the fluorescein angiograms and size of the CNV areas in marmoset monkeys. These findings suggest that HB-EGF plays an important role in the development of CNV. Therefore, further investigations of HB-EGF are needed as a potential therapeutic target in the treatment of exudative age-related macular degeneration. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

  7. Ace inhibitors and cardiovascular regulation : the importance of autocrine and paracrine mechanisms

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wijngaarden, Jan van

    1992-01-01

    As demonstrated in a large number of clinical studies, angiotensin converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitors are of great value for the treatment of cardiovascular disorders. Although the clinical merits of these drugs are now well recognized, their mechanism of action is not yet completely understood. The

  8. Evidence for paracrine/autocrine regulation of GLP-1-producing cells

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kappe, Camilla; Zhang, Qimin; Holst, Jens Juul

    2013-01-01

    Glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1), secreted from gut L cells upon nutrient intake, forms the basis for novel drugs against type 2 diabetes (T2D). Secretion of GLP-1 has been suggested to be impaired in T2D and in conditions associated with hyperlipidemia and insulin resistance. Further, recent stud...

  9. TGF-betas synthesized by RPE cells have autocrine activity on mesenchymal transformation and cell proliferation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, S C; Kim, S H; Koh, H J; Kwon, O W

    2001-06-01

    The present study investigated the effects of transforming growth factor (TGF)-beta on retinal pigment epithelial (RPE) transformation in a simplified model and also whether or not TGF-beta exhibits similar proliferation effects on transformed RPE cells that it has on primary RPE cells. Furthermore, we examined the cell proliferation effects of RPE-conditioned medium (CM). A vertical wound measuring 2 mm in diameter was made on primary RPE monolayers. The expression of alpha-smooth muscle actin (SMA) by the cells located at the wound edges was observed using a confocal microscope under immunofluorescent staining. Cell proliferation was measured by incorporating 3H-thymidine into DNA. The presence of alpha-SMA was observed in the cells within the wound after treatment with TGF-beta2, while negative expression was observed in control cells. TGF-betas inhibited the proliferation of the primary cultures of RPE cells in a dose-dependent manner, but the spindle-shaped late-passaged RPE cells were not inhibited by these growth factors. The medium conditioned by RPE cells stimulated the proliferation of subconjunctival fibroblasts and inhibited the proliferation of primary RPE cells, in a manner similar to TGF-beta. These findings demonstrate that TGF-beta-stimulated RPE cells may evoke proliferative vitreoretinopathy through mesenchymal transformation and cell proliferation.

  10. Wine Expertise Predicts Taste Phenotype

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayes, John E; Pickering, Gary J

    2011-01-01

    Taste phenotypes have long been studied in relation to alcohol intake, dependence, and family history, with contradictory findings. However, on balance – with appropriate caveats about populations tested, outcomes measured and psychophysical methods used – an association between variation in taste responsiveness and some alcohol behaviors is supported. Recent work suggests super-tasting (operationalized via propylthiouracil (PROP) bitterness) not only associates with heightened response but also with more acute discrimination between stimuli. Here, we explore relationships between food and beverage adventurousness and taste phenotype. A convenience sample of wine drinkers (n=330) were recruited in Ontario and phenotyped for PROP bitterness via filter paper disk. They also filled out a short questionnaire regarding willingness to try new foods, alcoholic beverages and wines as well as level of wine involvement, which was used to classify them as a wine expert (n=110) or wine consumer (n=220). In univariate logisitic models, food adventurousness predicted trying new wines and beverages but not expertise. Likewise, wine expertise predicted willingness to try new wines and beverages but not foods. In separate multivariate logistic models, willingness to try new wines and beverages was predicted by expertise and food adventurousness but not PROP. However, mean PROP bitterness was higher among wine experts than wine consumers, and the conditional distribution functions differed between experts and consumers. In contrast, PROP means and distributions did not differ with food adventurousness. These data suggest individuals may self-select for specific professions based on sensory ability (i.e., an active gene-environment correlation) but phenotype does not explain willingness to try new stimuli. PMID:22888174

  11. Developmental dyslexia: predicting individual risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Paul A; Hulme, Charles; Nash, Hannah M; Gooch, Debbie; Hayiou-Thomas, Emma; Snowling, Margaret J

    2015-09-01

    Causal theories of dyslexia suggest that it is a heritable disorder, which is the outcome of multiple risk factors. However, whether early screening for dyslexia is viable is not yet known. The study followed children at high risk of dyslexia from preschool through the early primary years assessing them from age 3 years and 6 months (T1) at approximately annual intervals on tasks tapping cognitive, language, and executive-motor skills. The children were recruited to three groups: children at family risk of dyslexia, children with concerns regarding speech, and language development at 3;06 years and controls considered to be typically developing. At 8 years, children were classified as 'dyslexic' or not. Logistic regression models were used to predict the individual risk of dyslexia and to investigate how risk factors accumulate to predict poor literacy outcomes. Family-risk status was a stronger predictor of dyslexia at 8 years than low language in preschool. Additional predictors in the preschool years include letter knowledge, phonological awareness, rapid automatized naming, and executive skills. At the time of school entry, language skills become significant predictors, and motor skills add a small but significant increase to the prediction probability. We present classification accuracy using different probability cutoffs for logistic regression models and ROC curves to highlight the accumulation of risk factors at the individual level. Dyslexia is the outcome of multiple risk factors and children with language difficulties at school entry are at high risk. Family history of dyslexia is a predictor of literacy outcome from the preschool years. However, screening does not reach an acceptable clinical level until close to school entry when letter knowledge, phonological awareness, and RAN, rather than family risk, together provide good sensitivity and specificity as a screening battery. © 2015 The Authors. Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry published by

  12. Laser line scan performance prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahoney, Kevin L.; Schofield, Oscar; Kerfoot, John; Giddings, Tom; Shirron, Joe; Twardowski, Mike

    2007-09-01

    The effectiveness of sensors that use optical measurements for the laser detection and identification of subsurface mines is directly related to water clarity. The primary objective of the work presented here was to use the optical data collected by UUV (Slocum Glider) surveys of an operational areas to estimate the performance of an electro-optical identification (EOID) Laser Line Scan (LLS) system during RIMPAC 06, an international naval exercise off the coast of Hawaii. Measurements of optical backscattering and beam attenuation were made with a Wet Labs, Inc. Scattering Absorption Meter (SAM), mounted on a Rutgers University/Webb Research Slocum glider. The optical data universally indicated extremely clear water in the operational area, except very close to shore. The beam-c values from the SAM sensor were integrated to three attenuation lengths to provide an estimate of how well the LLS would perform in detecting and identifying mines in the operational areas. Additionally, the processed in situ optical data served as near-real-time input to the Electro-Optic Detection Simulator, ver. 3 (EODES-3; Metron, Inc.) model for EOID performance prediction. Both methods of predicting LLS performance suggested a high probability of detection and probability of identification. These predictions were validated by the actual performance of the LLS as the EOID system yielded imagery from which reliable mine identification could be made. Future plans include repeating this work in more optically challenging water types to demonstrate the utility of pre-mission UUV surveys of operational areas as a tactical decision aid for planning EOID missions.

  13. Zephyr - the next generation prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Giebel, G.; Landberg, L.; Nielsen, Torben Skov

    2001-01-01

    Technical University. This paper will describe a new project funded by the Danish Ministry of Energy where the largest Danish utilities (Elkraft, Elsam, Eltra and SEAS) are participating. Two advantages can be achieved by combining the effort: The software architecture will be state-of-the-art, using...... the Java2TM platform and Enterprise Java Beans technology, and it will ensure that the best forecasts are given on all prediction horizons from the short range (0-9 hours) to the long range (36-48 hours). This is because the IMM approach uses online data and advanced statistical methods, which...

  14. Making predictions in the multiverse

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Freivogel, Ben, E-mail: benfreivogel@gmail.com [Center for Theoretical Physics and Laboratory for Nuclear Science, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139 (United States)

    2011-10-21

    I describe reasons to think we are living in an eternally inflating multiverse where the observable 'constants' of nature vary from place to place. The major obstacle to making predictions in this context is that we must regulate the infinities of eternal inflation. I review a number of proposed regulators, or measures. Recent work has ruled out a number of measures by showing that they conflict with observation, and focused attention on a few proposals. Further, several different measures have been shown to be equivalent. I describe some of the many nontrivial tests these measures will face as we learn more from theory, experiment and observation.

  15. Aviation turbulence processes, detection, prediction

    CERN Document Server

    Lane, Todd

    2016-01-01

    Anyone who has experienced turbulence in flight knows that it is usually not pleasant, and may wonder why this is so difficult to avoid. The book includes papers by various aviation turbulence researchers and provides background into the nature and causes of atmospheric turbulence that affect aircraft motion, and contains surveys of the latest techniques for remote and in situ sensing and forecasting of the turbulence phenomenon. It provides updates on the state-of-the-art research since earlier studies in the 1960s on clear-air turbulence, explains recent new understanding into turbulence generation by thunderstorms, and summarizes future challenges in turbulence prediction and avoidance.

  16. Flooding Fragility Experiments and Prediction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, Curtis L. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Tahhan, Antonio [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Muchmore, Cody [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Nichols, Larinda [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Bhandari, Bishwo [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Pope, Chad [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2016-09-01

    This report describes the work that has been performed on flooding fragility, both the experimental tests being carried out and the probabilistic fragility predictive models being produced in order to use the text results. Flooding experiments involving full-scale doors have commenced in the Portal Evaluation Tank. The goal of these experiments is to develop a full-scale component flooding experiment protocol and to acquire data that can be used to create Bayesian regression models representing the fragility of these components. This work is in support of the Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) Pathway external hazards evaluation research and development.

  17. Mach's predictions and relativistic cosmology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heller, M.

    1989-01-01

    Deep methodological insight of Ernst Mach into the structure of the Newtonian mechanics allowed him to ask questions, the importance of which can be appreciated only today. Three such Mach's ''predictions'' are briefly presented, namely: the possibility of the existence of an allpervading medium which could serve as an universal frame of reference and which has actually been discovered in the form of the microwave background radiation, a certain ''smoothness'' of the Universe which is now recognized as the Robertson-Walker symmetries and the possibility of the experimental verification of the mass anisotropy. 11 refs. (author)

  18. Flooding Fragility Experiments and Prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, Curtis L.; Tahhan, Antonio; Muchmore, Cody; Nichols, Larinda; Bhandari, Bishwo; Pope, Chad

    2016-01-01

    This report describes the work that has been performed on flooding fragility, both the experimental tests being carried out and the probabilistic fragility predictive models being produced in order to use the text results. Flooding experiments involving full-scale doors have commenced in the Portal Evaluation Tank. The goal of these experiments is to develop a full-scale component flooding experiment protocol and to acquire data that can be used to create Bayesian regression models representing the fragility of these components. This work is in support of the Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) Pathway external hazards evaluation research and development.

  19. Making predictions in the multiverse

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freivogel, Ben

    2011-10-01

    I describe reasons to think we are living in an eternally inflating multiverse where the observable 'constants' of nature vary from place to place. The major obstacle to making predictions in this context is that we must regulate the infinities of eternal inflation. I review a number of proposed regulators, or measures. Recent work has ruled out a number of measures by showing that they conflict with observation, and focused attention on a few proposals. Further, several different measures have been shown to be equivalent. I describe some of the many nontrivial tests these measures will face as we learn more from theory, experiment and observation.

  20. Prediction of dislocation boundary characteristics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Winther, Grethe

    orientation of the grain [1]. For selected boundaries it has been experimentally verified that the boundaries consist of fairly regular networks of dislocations, which come from the active slip systems [2]. The networks have been analyzed within the framework of Low-Energy-Dislocation-Structures (LEDS......, such as the dislocation content and misorientation. The prediction is based on the expected active slip systems and assumptions of mutual stress screening. In general, networks of dislocations with three linearly independent Burgers vectors fulfilling the criterion of mutual stress screening may form on any plane...

  1. Predicting word sense annotation agreement

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Martinez Alonso, Hector; Johannsen, Anders Trærup; Lopez de Lacalle, Oier

    2015-01-01

    High agreement is a common objective when annotating data for word senses. However, a number of factors make perfect agreement impossible, e.g. the limitations of the sense inventories, the difficulty of the examples or the interpretation preferences of the annotations. Estimating potential...... agreement is thus a relevant task to supplement the evaluation of sense annotations. In this article we propose two methods to predict agreement on word-annotation instances. We experiment with a continuous representation and a three-way discretization of observed agreement. In spite of the difficulty...

  2. Predicting response to epigenetic therapy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Treppendahl, Marianne B; Kristensen, Lasse S; Grønbæk, Kirsten

    2014-01-01

    Drugs targeting the epigenome are new promising cancer treatment modalities; however, not all patients receive the same benefit from these drugs. In contrast to conventional chemotherapy, responses may take several months after the initiation of treatment to occur. Accordingly, identification...... of good pretreatment predictors of response is of great value. Many clinical parameters and molecular targets have been tested in preclinical and clinical studies with varying results, leaving room for optimization. Here we provide an overview of markers that may predict the efficacy of FDA- and EMA...

  3. Expansion tube test time predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gourlay, Christopher M.

    1988-01-01

    The interaction of an interface between two gases and strong expansion is investigated and the effect on flow in an expansion tube is examined. Two mechanisms for the unsteady Pitot-pressure fluctuations found in the test section of an expansion tube are proposed. The first mechanism depends on the Rayleigh-Taylor instability of the driver-test gas interface in the presence of a strong expansion. The second mechanism depends on the reflection of the strong expansion from the interface. Predictions compare favorably with experimental results. The theory is expected to be independent of the absolute values of the initial expansion tube filling pressures.

  4. De Novo Chromosome Structure Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    di Pierro, Michele; Cheng, Ryan R.; Lieberman-Aiden, Erez; Wolynes, Peter G.; Onuchic, Jose'n.

    Chromatin consists of DNA and hundreds of proteins that interact with the genetic material. In vivo, chromatin folds into nonrandom structures. The physical mechanism leading to these characteristic conformations, however, remains poorly understood. We recently introduced MiChroM, a model that generates chromosome conformations by using the idea that chromatin can be subdivided into types based on its biochemical interactions. Here we extend and complete our previous finding by showing that structural chromatin types can be inferred from ChIP-Seq data. Chromatin types, which are distinct from DNA sequence, are partially epigenetically controlled and change during cell differentiation, thus constituting a link between epigenetics, chromosomal organization, and cell development. We show that, for GM12878 lymphoblastoid cells we are able to predict accurate chromosome structures with the only input of genomic data. The degree of accuracy achieved by our prediction supports the viability of the proposed physical mechanism of chromatin folding and makes the computational model a powerful tool for future investigations.

  5. Prediction of low birth weight

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sinding, Marianne; Peters, David A; Frøkjær, Jens B

    2017-01-01

    operating characteristic curves demonstrated a significantly higher performance of T2* (AUC of 0.92; 95% CI, 0.85-0.98) than UtA PI (AUC of 0.74; 95% CI, 0.60-0.89) in the prediction of low birth weight (p = 0.010). Placental pathological findings were closely related to the T2* values. CONCLUSIONS...... placental function. Therefore, we aimed to evaluate the performance of placental T2* in the prediction of low birth weight using the uterine artery (UtA) pulsatility index (PI) as gold standard. METHODS: This was a prospective observational study of 100 singleton pregnancies included at 20-40 weeks......' gestation. Placental T2* was obtained using a gradient recalled multi-echo MRI sequence and UtA PI was measured using Doppler ultrasound. Placental pathological examination was performed in 57 of the pregnancies. Low birth weight was defined by a Z-score ≤ -2.0. RESULTS: The incidence of low birth weight...

  6. Menopause prediction and potential implications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daan, Nadine M P; Fauser, Bart C J M

    2015-11-01

    Reproductive ageing in women is characterized by a decline in both the quantity and quality of oocytes. Menopause is reached upon exhaustion of the resting primordial follicle pool, occurring on average at 51 years of age (range 40-60 years). The mean global age at natural menopause (ANM) appears robust, suggesting a distinct genetic control. Accordingly, a strong correlation in ANM is observed between mothers and daughters. Few specific genetic determinants of ANM have been identified. Substantial efforts have been made to predict ANM by using anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH) levels. AMH serum concentrations at reproductive age predict ANM, but precision is currently limited. Early ANM is associated with early preceding fertility loss, whereas late menopause is associated with reduced morbidity and mortality later in life. Menopause affects various women's health aspects, including bone density, breast, the cardiovascular system, mood/cognitive function and sexual well-being. If the current trend of increasing human life expectancy persists, women will soon spend half their life postmenopause. Unfortunately, increased longevity does not coincide with an equal increase in years spend in good health. Future research should focus on determinants of long term health effects of ANM, and efforts to improve women's postmenopausal health and quality of life. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Predicting educational achievement from DNA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Selzam, S; Krapohl, E; von Stumm, S; O'Reilly, P F; Rimfeld, K; Kovas, Y; Dale, P S; Lee, J J; Plomin, R

    2017-02-01

    A genome-wide polygenic score (GPS), derived from a 2013 genome-wide association study (N=127,000), explained 2% of the variance in total years of education (EduYears). In a follow-up study (N=329,000), a new EduYears GPS explains up to 4%. Here, we tested the association between this latest EduYears GPS and educational achievement scores at ages 7, 12 and 16 in an independent sample of 5825 UK individuals. We found that EduYears GPS explained greater amounts of variance in educational achievement over time, up to 9% at age 16, accounting for 15% of the heritable variance. This is the strongest GPS prediction to date for quantitative behavioral traits. Individuals in the highest and lowest GPS septiles differed by a whole school grade at age 16. Furthermore, EduYears GPS was associated with general cognitive ability (~3.5%) and family socioeconomic status (~7%). There was no evidence of an interaction between EduYears GPS and family socioeconomic status on educational achievement or on general cognitive ability. These results are a harbinger of future widespread use of GPS to predict genetic risk and resilience in the social and behavioral sciences.

  8. Finite Unification: Theory and Predictions

    CERN Document Server

    Heinemeyer, S; Zoupanos, G

    2010-01-01

    All-loop Finite Unified Theories (FUTs) are very interesting N=1 supersymmetric Grand Unified Theories (GUTs) which not only realise an old field theoretic dream but also have a remarkable predictive power due to the required reduction of couplings. The reduction of the dimensionless couplings in N=1 GUTs is achieved by searching for renormalization group invariant (RGI) relations among them holding beyond the unification scale. Finiteness results from the fact that there exist RGI relations among dimensionless couplings that guarantee the vanishing of all beta-functions in certain N=1 GUTs even to all orders. Furthermore developments in the soft supersymmetry breaking sector of N=1 GUTs and FUTs lead to exact RGI relations, i.e. reduction of couplings, in this dimensionful sector of the theory too. Based on the above theoretical framework phenomenologically consistent FUTS have been constructed. Here we present FUT models based on the SU(5) and SU(3)^3 gauge groups and their predictions. Of particular intere...

  9. Prediction Reweighting for Domain Adaptation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shuang Li; Shiji Song; Gao Huang

    2017-07-01

    There are plenty of classification methods that perform well when training and testing data are drawn from the same distribution. However, in real applications, this condition may be violated, which causes degradation of classification accuracy. Domain adaptation is an effective approach to address this problem. In this paper, we propose a general domain adaptation framework from the perspective of prediction reweighting, from which a novel approach is derived. Different from the major domain adaptation methods, our idea is to reweight predictions of the training classifier on testing data according to their signed distance to the domain separator, which is a classifier that distinguishes training data (from source domain) and testing data (from target domain). We then propagate the labels of target instances with larger weights to ones with smaller weights by introducing a manifold regularization method. It can be proved that our reweighting scheme effectively brings the source and target domains closer to each other in an appropriate sense, such that classification in target domain becomes easier. The proposed method can be implemented efficiently by a simple two-stage algorithm, and the target classifier has a closed-form solution. The effectiveness of our approach is verified by the experiments on artificial datasets and two standard benchmarks, a visual object recognition task and a cross-domain sentiment analysis of text. Experimental results demonstrate that our method is competitive with the state-of-the-art domain adaptation algorithms.

  10. Iowa calibration of MEPDG performance prediction models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-06-01

    This study aims to improve the accuracy of AASHTO Mechanistic-Empirical Pavement Design Guide (MEPDG) pavement : performance predictions for Iowa pavement systems through local calibration of MEPDG prediction models. A total of 130 : representative p...

  11. Predicting Performance Ratings Using Motivational Antecedents

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Zazania, Michelle

    1998-01-01

    .... LISREL8 was used to test a path model predicting performance ratings. Results showed observer ratings of effort and self-reported task sell-efficacy played a role in predicting ratings of task-specific performance...

  12. Prediction of Unsteady Transonic Aerodynamics, Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — An accurate prediction of aero-elastic effects depends on an accurate prediction of the unsteady aerodynamic forces. Perhaps the most difficult speed regime is...

  13. Dissociating Prediction Failure: Considerations from Music Perception

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ross, Suzi; Hansen, Niels Christian

    2016-01-01

    Dissociating Prediction Failure: Considerations from Music Perception The Journal of Neuroscience, 16 March 2016, 36(11): 3103-3105;......Dissociating Prediction Failure: Considerations from Music Perception The Journal of Neuroscience, 16 March 2016, 36(11): 3103-3105;...

  14. Advanced Refractive Effects Prediction System (AREPS)

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Patterson, Wayne L

    2001-01-01

    ...), the world's first electromagnetic prediction system for shipboard use. Advances in research and technology have led to the replacement of IREPS with the Advanced Refractive Effects Prediction System (AREPS...

  15. Are we ready to predict late effects?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salz, Talya; Baxi, Shrujal S; Raghunathan, Nirupa

    2015-01-01

    to patient characteristics, late effects, the prediction model and model evaluation. DATA SYNTHESIS: Across 14 studies identified for review, nine late effects were predicted: erectile dysfunction and urinary incontinence after prostate cancer; arm lymphoedema, psychological morbidity, cardiomyopathy...

  16. BDDCS Class Prediction for New Molecular Entities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Broccatelli, Fabio; Cruciani, Gabriele; Benet, Leslie Z.

    2012-01-01

    descriptors calculated or derived from the VolSurf+ software. For each molecule, a probability of BDDCS class membership was given, based on predicted EoM, FDA solubility (FDAS) and their confidence scores. The accuracy in predicting FDAS was 78% in training and 77% in validation, while for EoM prediction...

  17. Comparison of Prediction-Error-Modelling Criteria

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, John Bagterp; Jørgensen, Sten Bay

    2007-01-01

    Single and multi-step prediction-error-methods based on the maximum likelihood and least squares criteria are compared. The prediction-error methods studied are based on predictions using the Kalman filter and Kalman predictors for a linear discrete-time stochastic state space model, which is a r...

  18. Efficient marker data utilization in genomic prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Edriss, Vahid

    Genomic prediction is a novel method to recognize the best animals for breeding. The aim of this PhD is to improve the accuracy of genomic prediction in dairy cattle by effeiently utilizing marker data. The thesis focuses on three aspects for improving the genomc prediction, which are: criteria...

  19. Based on BP Neural Network Stock Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xiangwei; Ma, Xin

    2012-01-01

    The stock market has a high profit and high risk features, on the stock market analysis and prediction research has been paid attention to by people. Stock price trend is a complex nonlinear function, so the price has certain predictability. This article mainly with improved BP neural network (BPNN) to set up the stock market prediction model, and…

  20. NEURAL METHODS FOR THE FINANCIAL PREDICTION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jerzy Balicki

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Artificial neural networks can be used to predict share investment on the stock market, assess the reliability of credit client or predicting banking crises. Moreover, this paper discusses the principles of cooperation neural network algorithms with evolutionary method, and support vector machines. In addition, a reference is made to other methods of artificial intelligence, which are used in finance prediction.

  1. Predictive Analytics in Information Systems Research

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    G. Shmueli (Galit); O.R. Koppius (Otto)

    2011-01-01

    textabstractThis research essay highlights the need to integrate predictive analytics into information systems research and shows several concrete ways in which this goal can be accomplished. Predictive analytics include empirical methods (statistical and other) that generate data predictions as

  2. Applications for predictive microbiology to food packaging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Predictive microbiology has been used for several years in the food industry to predict microbial growth, inactivation and survival. Predictive models provide a useful tool in risk assessment, HACCP set-up and GMP for the food industry to enhance microbial food safety. This report introduces the c...

  3. Hydrological Ensemble Prediction System (HEPS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thielen-Del Pozo, J.; Schaake, J.; Martin, E.; Pailleux, J.; Pappenberger, F.

    2010-09-01

    Flood forecasting systems form a key part of ‘preparedness' strategies for disastrous floods and provide hydrological services, civil protection authorities and the public with information of upcoming events. Provided the warning leadtime is sufficiently long, adequate preparatory actions can be taken to efficiently reduce the impacts of the flooding. Following on the success of the use of ensembles for weather forecasting, the hydrological community now moves increasingly towards Hydrological Ensemble Prediction Systems (HEPS) for improved flood forecasting using operationally available NWP products as inputs. However, these products are often generated on relatively coarse scales compared to hydrologically relevant basin units and suffer systematic biases that may have considerable impact when passed through the non-linear hydrological filters. Therefore, a better understanding on how best to produce, communicate and use hydrologic ensemble forecasts in hydrological short-, medium- und long term prediction of hydrological processes is necessary. The "Hydrologic Ensemble Prediction Experiment" (HEPEX), is an international initiative consisting of hydrologists, meteorologist and end-users to advance probabilistic hydrologic forecast techniques for flood, drought and water management applications. Different aspects of the hydrological ensemble processor are being addressed including • Production of useful meteorological products relevant for hydrological applications, ranging from nowcasting products to seasonal forecasts. The importance of hindcasts that are consistent with the operational weather forecasts will be discussed to support bias correction and downscaling, statistically meaningful verification of HEPS, and the development and testing of operating rules; • Need for downscaling and post-processing of weather ensembles to reduce bias before entering hydrological applications; • Hydrological model and parameter uncertainty and how to correct and

  4. Predicting casualties implied by TIPs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trendafiloski, G.; Wyss, M.; Wyss, B. M.

    2009-12-01

    When an earthquake is predicted, forecast, or expected with a higher than normal probability, losses are implied. We estimated the casualties (fatalities plus injured) that should be expected if earthquakes in TIPs (locations of Temporarily Increased Probability of earthquakes) defined by Kossobokov et al. (2009) should occur. We classified the predictions of losses into the categories red (more than 400 fatalities or more than 1,000 injured), yellow (between 100 and 400 fatalities), green (fewer than 100 fatalities), and gray (undetermined). TIPs in Central Chile, the Philippines, Papua, and Taiwan are in the red class, TIPs in Southern Sumatra, Nicaragua, Vanatu, and Honshu in the yellow class, and TIPs in Tonga, Loyalty Islands, Vanatu, S. Sandwich Islands, Banda Sea, and the Kuriles, are classified as green. TIPs where the losses depend moderately on the assumed point of major energy release were classified as yellow; TIPs such as in the Talaud Islands and in Tonga, where the losses depend very strongly on the location of the epicenter, were classified as gray. The accuracy of loss estimates after earthquakes with known hypocenter and magnitude are affected by uncertainties in transmission and soil properties, the composition of the building stock, the population present, and the method by which the numbers of casualties are calculated. In the case of TIPs, uncertainties in magnitude and location are added, thus we calculate losses for a range of these two parameters. Therefore, our calculations can only be considered order of magnitude estimates. Nevertheless, our predictions can come to within a factor of two of the observed numbers, as in the case of the M7.6 earthquake of October 2005 in Pakistan that resulted in 85,000 fatalities (Wyss, 2005). In subduction zones, the geometrical relationship between the earthquake source capable of a great earthquake and the population is clear because there is only one major fault plane available, thus the epicentral

  5. Clinical Prediction Models for Cardiovascular Disease: Tufts Predictive Analytics and Comparative Effectiveness Clinical Prediction Model Database.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wessler, Benjamin S; Lai Yh, Lana; Kramer, Whitney; Cangelosi, Michael; Raman, Gowri; Lutz, Jennifer S; Kent, David M

    2015-07-01

    Clinical prediction models (CPMs) estimate the probability of clinical outcomes and hold the potential to improve decision making and individualize care. For patients with cardiovascular disease, there are numerous CPMs available although the extent of this literature is not well described. We conducted a systematic review for articles containing CPMs for cardiovascular disease published between January 1990 and May 2012. Cardiovascular disease includes coronary heart disease, heart failure, arrhythmias, stroke, venous thromboembolism, and peripheral vascular disease. We created a novel database and characterized CPMs based on the stage of development, population under study, performance, covariates, and predicted outcomes. There are 796 models included in this database. The number of CPMs published each year is increasing steadily over time. Seven hundred seventeen (90%) are de novo CPMs, 21 (3%) are CPM recalibrations, and 58 (7%) are CPM adaptations. This database contains CPMs for 31 index conditions, including 215 CPMs for patients with coronary artery disease, 168 CPMs for population samples, and 79 models for patients with heart failure. There are 77 distinct index/outcome pairings. Of the de novo models in this database, 450 (63%) report a c-statistic and 259 (36%) report some information on calibration. There is an abundance of CPMs available for a wide assortment of cardiovascular disease conditions, with substantial redundancy in the literature. The comparative performance of these models, the consistency of effects and risk estimates across models and the actual and potential clinical impact of this body of literature is poorly understood. © 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.

  6. Academic Training: Predicting Natural Catastrophes

    CERN Multimedia

    Françoise Benz

    2005-01-01

    2005-2006 ACADEMIC TRAINING PROGRAMME LECTURE SERIES 12, 13, 14, 15, 16 December from 11:00 to 12:00 - Main Auditorium, bldg. 500 Predicting Natural Catastrophes E. OKAL / Northwestern University, Evanston, USA 1. Tsunamis -- Introduction Definition of phenomenon - basic properties of the waves Propagation and dispersion Interaction with coasts - Geological and societal effects Origin of tsunamis - natural sources Scientific activities in connection with tsunamis. Ideas about simulations 2. Tsunami generation The earthquake source - conventional theory The earthquake source - normal mode theory The landslide source Near-field observation - The Plafker index Far-field observation - Directivity 3. Tsunami warning General ideas - History of efforts Mantle magnitudes and TREMOR algorithms The challenge of 'tsunami earthquakes' Energy-moment ratios and slow earthquakes Implementation and the components of warning centers 4. Tsunami surveys Principles and methodologies Fifteen years of field surveys and re...

  7. The PredictAD project

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Antila, Kari; Lötjönen, Jyrki; Thurfjell, Lennart

    2013-01-01

    can be managed. Today the significance of early and precise diagnosis of AD is emphasized in order to minimize its irreversible effects on the nervous system. When new drugs and therapies enter the market it is also vital to effectively identify the right candidates to benefit from these. The main...... objective of the PredictAD project was to find and integrate efficient biomarkers from heterogeneous patient data to make early diagnosis and to monitor the progress of AD in a more efficient, reliable and objective manner. The project focused on discovering biomarkers from biomolecular data...... candidates and implement the framework in software. The results are currently used in several research projects, licensed to commercial use and being tested for clinical use in several trials....

  8. Meditation experience predicts introspective accuracy.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kieran C R Fox

    Full Text Available The accuracy of subjective reports, especially those involving introspection of one's own internal processes, remains unclear, and research has demonstrated large individual differences in introspective accuracy. It has been hypothesized that introspective accuracy may be heightened in persons who engage in meditation practices, due to the highly introspective nature of such practices. We undertook a preliminary exploration of this hypothesis, examining introspective accuracy in a cross-section of meditation practitioners (1-15,000 hrs experience. Introspective accuracy was assessed by comparing subjective reports of tactile sensitivity for each of 20 body regions during a 'body-scanning' meditation with averaged, objective measures of tactile sensitivity (mean size of body representation area in primary somatosensory cortex; two-point discrimination threshold as reported in prior research. Expert meditators showed significantly better introspective accuracy than novices; overall meditation experience also significantly predicted individual introspective accuracy. These results suggest that long-term meditators provide more accurate introspective reports than novices.

  9. Numerical prediction of slamming loads

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Seng, Sopheak; Jensen, Jørgen J; Pedersen, Preben T

    2012-01-01

    It is important to include the contribution of the slamming-induced response in the structural design of large vessels with a significant bow flare. At the same time it is a challenge to develop rational tools to determine the slamming-induced loads and the prediction of their occurrence. Today...... it is normal practice to apply a standard sea-keeping procedure to determine the relative velocity distribution between the water surface and the hull and then to estimate the bottom slamming loads and the bow-flare slamming loads based on two-dimensional formulations similarly to water-entry problems....... The pressure distribution as well as the total force is then determined by integration over a pseudo-three-dimensional presentation of the hull geometry.In this paper the evaluation of the slamming load is taken one step further by performing direct three-dimensional, fully non-linear numerical calculations...

  10. Predicting tuberculosis among migrant groups.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watkins, R. E.; Plant, A. J.

    2002-01-01

    In industrialized countries migrants remain a high-risk group for tuberculosis (TB). Multiple linear regression analysis was used to determine the ability of indicators of TB incidence in the country of birth to predict the incidence of TB among migrants in Australia during 1997. World Health Organization total case notifications, new smear-positive case notifications and the estimated incidence of TB by country of birth explained 55, 69 and 87% of the variance in TB incidence in Australia, respectively. Gross national income of the country of birth and unemployment level in Australia were also significant predictors of TB in migrant groups. Indicators of the incidence of TB in the country of birth are the most important group-level predictors of the rate of TB among migrants in Australia. PMID:12558347

  11. Predicting soil respiration from peatlands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rowson, J G; Worrall, F; Evans, M G; Dixon, S D

    2013-01-01

    This study considers the relative performance of six different models to predict soil respiration from upland peat. Predicting soil respiration is important for global carbon budgets and gap filling measured data from eddy covariance and closed chamber measurements. Further to models previously published new models are presented using two sub-soil zones and season. Models are tested using data from the Bleaklow plateau, southern Pennines, UK. Presented literature models include ANOVA using logged environmental data, the Arrhenius equation, modified versions of the Arrhenius equation to include soil respiration activation energy and water table depth. New models are proposed including the introduction of two soil zones in the peat profile, and season. The first new model proposes a zone of high CO(2) productivity related to increased soil microbial CO(2) production due to the supply of labile carbon from plant root exudates and root respiration. The second zone is a deeper zone where CO(2) production is lower with less labile carbon. A final model allows the zone of high CO(2) production to become dormant during winter months when plants will senesce and will vary depending upon vegetation type within a fixed location. The final model accounted for, on average, 31.9% of variance in net ecosystem respiration within 11 different restoration sites whilst, using the same data set, the best fitting literature equation only accounted for 18.7% of the total variance. Our results demonstrate that soil respiration models can be improved by explicitly accounting for seasonality and the vertically stratified nature of soil processes. These improved models provide an enhanced basis for calculating the peatland carbon budgets which are essential in understanding the role of peatlands in the global C cycle. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. PEMS. Advanced predictive emission monitoring

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sandvig Nielsen, J.

    2010-07-15

    In the project PEMS have been developed for boilers, internal combustion engines and gas turbines. The PEMS models have been developed using two principles: The one called ''first principles'' is based on thermo-kinetic modeling of the NO{sub x}-formation by modeling conditions (like temperature, pressure and residence time) in the reaction zones. The other one is data driven using artificial neural network (ANN) and includes no physical properties and no thermo-kinetic formulation. Models of first principles have been developed for gas turbines and gas engines. Data driven models have been developed for gas turbines, gas engines and boilers. The models have been tested on data from sites located in Denmark and the Middle East. Weel and Sandvig has conducted the on-site emission measurements used for development and testing the PEMS models. For gas turbines, both the ''first principles'' and the data driven models have performed excellent considering the ability to reproduce the emission levels of NO{sub x} according to the input variables used for calibration. Data driven models for boilers and gas engines have performed excellent as well. The rather comprehensive first principle model, developed for gas engines, did not perform as well in the prediction of NO{sub x}. Possible a more complex model formulation is required for internal combustion engines. In general, both model types have been validated on data extracted from the data set used for calibration. The data for validation have been selected randomly as individual samplings, and is scattered over the entire measuring campaign. For one natural gas engine a secondary measuring campaign was conducted half a year later than the campaign used for training the data driven model. In the meantime, this engine had been through a refurbishment that included new pistons, piston rings and cylinder linings and cleaning of the cylinder heads. Despite the refurbishment, the

  13. Sports Tournament Predictions Using Direct Manipulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vuillemot, Romain; Perin, Charles

    2016-01-01

    An advanced interface for sports tournament predictions uses direct manipulation to allow users to make nonlinear predictions. Unlike previous interface designs, the interface helps users focus on their prediction tasks by enabling them to first choose a winner and then fill out the rest of the bracket. In real-world tests of the proposed interface (for the 2014 FIFA World Cup tournament and 2015/2016 UEFA Champions League), the authors validated the use of direct manipulation as an alternative to widgets. Using visitor interaction logs, they were able to determine the strategies people use to perform predictions and identify potential areas of improvement for further prediction interfaces.

  14. Evolution of property predictability during conceptual design

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salonen, Mikko; Hansen, Claus Thorp; Perttula, Matti

    2005-01-01

    A product is designed with the purpose of possessing certain properties, which are prescribed as requirements in the design specification. This paper studies the evolution of property predictability during the early phases of design in a case study context. By the term property predictability, we...... refer to the designers’ confidence in predicting product properties based on the available information. In the case study, with use of the produced design models at four different stages of concept concretisation, the designers evaluated their confidence in predicting product properties related...... to the requirements set for the task. As a result, we identified three different patterns of property predictability behaviour. These patterns consist of properties of which predictability is relatively high throughout the early phases of the design process, properties of which predictability shows a high increase...

  15. Potential for western US seasonal snowpack prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kapnick, Sarah B.; Yang, Xiaosong; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Delworth, Thomas L.; Gudgel, Rich; Malyshev, Sergey; Milly, Paul C.; Shevliakova, Elena; Underwood, Seth; Margulis, Steven A.

    2018-01-01

    Western US snowpack—snow that accumulates on the ground in the mountains—plays a critical role in regional hydroclimate and water supply, with 80% of snowmelt runoff being used for agriculture. While climate projections provide estimates of snowpack loss by the end of th ecentury and weather forecasts provide predictions of weather conditions out to 2 weeks, less progress has been made for snow predictions at seasonal timescales (months to 2 years), crucial for regional agricultural decisions (e.g., plant choice and quantity). Seasonal predictions with climate models first took the form of El Niño predictions 3 decades ago, with hydroclimate predictions emerging more recently. While the field has been focused on single-season predictions (3 months or less), we are now poised to advance our predictions beyond this timeframe. Utilizing observations, climate indices, and a suite of global climate models, we demonstrate the feasibility of seasonal snowpack predictions and quantify the limits of predictive skill 8 month sin advance. This physically based dynamic system outperforms observation-based statistical predictions made on July 1 for March snowpack everywhere except the southern Sierra Nevada, a region where prediction skill is nonexistent for every predictor presently tested. Additionally, in the absence of externally forced negative trends in snowpack, narrow maritime mountain ranges with high hydroclimate variability pose a challenge for seasonal prediction in our present system; natural snowpack variability may inherently be unpredictable at this timescale. This work highlights present prediction system successes and gives cause for optimism for developing seasonal predictions for societal needs.

  16. Spatiotemporal Bayesian networks for malaria prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haddawy, Peter; Hasan, A H M Imrul; Kasantikul, Rangwan; Lawpoolsri, Saranath; Sa-Angchai, Patiwat; Kaewkungwal, Jaranit; Singhasivanon, Pratap

    2018-01-01

    Targeted intervention and resource allocation are essential for effective malaria control, particularly in remote areas, with predictive models providing important information for decision making. While a diversity of modeling technique have been used to create predictive models of malaria, no work has made use of Bayesian networks. Bayes nets are attractive due to their ability to represent uncertainty, model time lagged and nonlinear relations, and provide explanations. This paper explores the use of Bayesian networks to model malaria, demonstrating the approach by creating village level models with weekly temporal resolution for Tha Song Yang district in northern Thailand. The networks are learned using data on cases and environmental covariates. Three types of networks are explored: networks for numeric prediction, networks for outbreak prediction, and networks that incorporate spatial autocorrelation. Evaluation of the numeric prediction network shows that the Bayes net has prediction accuracy in terms of mean absolute error of about 1.4 cases for 1 week prediction and 1.7 cases for 6 week prediction. The network for outbreak prediction has an ROC AUC above 0.9 for all prediction horizons. Comparison of prediction accuracy of both Bayes nets against several traditional modeling approaches shows the Bayes nets to outperform the other models for longer time horizon prediction of high incidence transmission. To model spread of malaria over space, we elaborate the models with links between the village networks. This results in some very large models which would be far too laborious to build by hand. So we represent the models as collections of probability logic rules and automatically generate the networks. Evaluation of the models shows that the autocorrelation links significantly improve prediction accuracy for some villages in regions of high incidence. We conclude that spatiotemporal Bayesian networks are a highly promising modeling alternative for prediction

  17. Which method predicts recidivism best?: A comparison of statistical, machine learning, and data mining predictive models

    OpenAIRE

    Tollenaar, N.; van der Heijden, P.G.M.

    2012-01-01

    Using criminal population conviction histories of recent offenders, prediction mod els are developed that predict three types of criminal recidivism: general recidivism, violent recidivism and sexual recidivism. The research question is whether prediction techniques from modern statistics, data mining and machine learning provide an improvement in predictive performance over classical statistical methods, namely logistic regression and linear discrim inant analysis. These models are compared ...

  18. Similarities and Differences Between Warped Linear Prediction and Laguerre Linear Prediction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brinker, Albertus C. den; Krishnamoorthi, Harish; Verbitskiy, Evgeny A.

    2011-01-01

    Linear prediction has been successfully applied in many speech and audio processing systems. This paper presents the similarities and differences between two classes of linear prediction schemes, namely, Warped Linear Prediction (WLP) and Laguerre Linear Prediction (LLP). It is shown that both

  19. Entropy and the Predictability of Online Life

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roberta Sinatra

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Using mobile phone records and information theory measures, our daily lives have been recently shown to follow strict statistical regularities, and our movement patterns are, to a large extent, predictable. Here, we apply entropy and predictability measures to two datasets of the behavioral actions and the mobility of a large number of players in the virtual universe of a massive multiplayer online game. We find that movements in virtual human lives follow the same high levels of predictability as offline mobility, where future movements can, to some extent, be predicted well if the temporal correlations of visited places are accounted for. Time series of behavioral actions show similar high levels of predictability, even when temporal correlations are neglected. Entropy conditional on specific behavioral actions reveals that in terms of predictability, negative behavior has a wider variety than positive actions. The actions that contain the information to best predict an individual’s subsequent action are negative, such as attacks or enemy markings, while the positive actions of friendship marking, trade and communication contain the least amount of predictive information. These observations show that predicting behavioral actions requires less information than predicting the mobility patterns of humans for which the additional knowledge of past visited locations is crucial and that the type and sign of a social relation has an essential impact on the ability to determine future behavior.

  20. Hypoparathyroidism following thyroidectomy: Predictive factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coimbra, Cristiana; Monteiro, Francisco; Oliveira, Pedro; Ribeiro, Leandro; de Almeida, Mário Giesteira; Condé, Artur

    To evaluate the incidence and predictive factors for transient and permanent hypocalcemia and hypoparathyroidism following thyroidectomy. We studied all the 162 patients that underwent thyroid surgery in the ENT department of the Centro Hospitalar Vila Nova Gaia/Espinho from January 2005 to December 2014. We reviewed pre-operative, 6h and 12h after surgery ionized calcium and PTH levels. All patients were reviewed and evaluated according to the following criteria: gender, age, thyroid function, histologic diagnosis of the specimen, surgery extension and presence or absence of hypoparathyroidism. There were 31 (19.1%) cases of transient hypoparathyroidism and 8 (5%) of permanent hypoparathyroidism. No significant difference was found for transient hypoparathyroidism when patients were analyzed by gender. However, all cases of permanent hypoparathyroidism were observed in female individuals. Comparing hemithyroidectomy with all other surgical procedures, we found that extension of surgery was a great predictor of transient (p=0.0001) and permanent (p=0.001) hypoparathyroidism. Diagnosis of malignancy was a strong predictor of transient hypoparathyroidism (p=0.002). It was also associated with permanent hypoparathyroidism, although differences did not reach statistical significance (p=0.096). Extension of surgery (total thyroidectomy) and diagnosis of malignancy are predictors of transient and permanent hypoparathyroidism. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier España, S.L.U. and Sociedad Española de Otorrinolaringología y Cirugía de Cabeza y Cuello. All rights reserved.

  1. Parallel Prediction of Stock Volatility

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Priscilla Jenq

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Volatility is a measurement of the risk of financial products. A stock will hit new highs and lows over time and if these highs and lows fluctuate wildly, then it is considered a high volatile stock. Such a stock is considered riskier than a stock whose volatility is low. Although highly volatile stocks are riskier, the returns that they generate for investors can be quite high. Of course, with a riskier stock also comes the chance of losing money and yielding negative returns. In this project, we will use historic stock data to help us forecast volatility. Since the financial industry usually uses S&P 500 as the indicator of the market, we will use S&P 500 as a benchmark to compute the risk. We will also use artificial neural networks as a tool to predict volatilities for a specific time frame that will be set when we configure this neural network. There have been reports that neural networks with different numbers of layers and different numbers of hidden nodes may generate varying results. In fact, we may be able to find the best configuration of a neural network to compute volatilities. We will implement this system using the parallel approach. The system can be used as a tool for investors to allocating and hedging assets.

  2. Time estimation predicts mathematical intelligence.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Kramer

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Performing mental subtractions affects time (duration estimates, and making time estimates disrupts mental subtractions. This interaction has been attributed to the concurrent involvement of time estimation and arithmetic with general intelligence and working memory. Given the extant evidence of a relationship between time and number, here we test the stronger hypothesis that time estimation correlates specifically with mathematical intelligence, and not with general intelligence or working-memory capacity. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Participants performed a (prospective time estimation experiment, completed several subtests of the WAIS intelligence test, and self-rated their mathematical skill. For five different durations, we found that time estimation correlated with both arithmetic ability and self-rated mathematical skill. Controlling for non-mathematical intelligence (including working memory capacity did not change the results. Conversely, correlations between time estimation and non-mathematical intelligence either were nonsignificant, or disappeared after controlling for mathematical intelligence. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: We conclude that time estimation specifically predicts mathematical intelligence. On the basis of the relevant literature, we furthermore conclude that the relationship between time estimation and mathematical intelligence is likely due to a common reliance on spatial ability.

  3. Predictable repair of provisional restorations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hammond, Barry D; Cooper, Jeril R; Lazarchik, David A

    2009-01-01

    The importance of provisional restorations is often downplayed, as they are thought of by some as only "temporaries." As a result, a less-than-ideal provisional is sometimes fabricated, in part because of the additional chair time required to make provisional modifications when using traditional techniques. Additionally, in many dental practices, these provisional restorations are often fabricated by auxillary personnel who may not be as well trained in the fabrication process. Because provisionals play an important role in achieving the desired final functional and esthetic result, a high-quality provisional restoration is essential to fabricating a successful definitive restoration. This article describes a method for efficiently and predictably repairing both methacrylate and bis-acryl provisional restorations using flowable composite resin. By use of this relatively simple technique, provisional restorations can now be modified or repaired in a timely and productive manner to yield an exceptional result. Successful execution of esthetic and restorative dentistry requires attention to detail in every aspect of the case. Fabrication of high-quality provisional restorations can, at times, be challenging and time consuming. The techniques for optimizing resin provisional restorations as described in this paper are pragmatic and will enhance the delivery of dental treatment.

  4. Incorrect predictions reduce switch costs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kleinsorge, Thomas; Scheil, Juliane

    2015-07-01

    In three experiments, we combined two sources of conflict within a modified task-switching procedure. The first source of conflict was the one inherent in any task switching situation, namely the conflict between a task set activated by the recent performance of another task and the task set needed to perform the actually relevant task. The second source of conflict was induced by requiring participants to guess aspects of the upcoming task (Exps. 1 & 2: task identity; Exp. 3: position of task precue). In case of an incorrect guess, a conflict accrues between the representation of the guessed task and the actually relevant task. In Experiments 1 and 2, incorrect guesses led to an overall increase of reaction times and error rates, but they reduced task switch costs compared to conditions in which participants predicted the correct task. In Experiment 3, incorrect guesses resulted in faster performance overall and to a selective decrease of reaction times in task switch trials when the cue-target interval was long. We interpret these findings in terms of an enhanced level of controlled processing induced by a combination of two sources of conflict converging upon the same target of cognitive control. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. Prediction of twin-arginine signal peptides

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bendtsen, Jannick Dyrløv; Nielsen, Henrik; Widdick, D.

    2005-01-01

    a publicly available method, TatP, for prediction of bacterial Tat signal peptides. Results: We have retrieved sequence data for Tat substrates in order to train a computational method for discrimination of Sec and Tat signal peptides. The TatP method is able to positively classify 91% of 35 known Tat signal...... peptides and 84% of the annotated cleavage sites of these Tat signal peptides were correctly predicted. This method generates far less false positive predictions on various datasets than using simple pattern matching. Moreover, on the same datasets TatP generates less false positive predictions than...... expressions, whereas hydrophobicity discrimination of Tat- and Sec- signal peptides is carried out by an artificial neural network. A potential cleavage site of the predicted Tat signal peptide is also reported. The TatP prediction server is available as a public web server at http://www.cbs.dtu.dk/services/TatP/....

  6. Predictability engenders more efficient neural responses

    OpenAIRE

    David M. Eagleman; Vani Pariyadath; Sara J. Churchill

    2009-01-01

    The neural response to a stimulus diminishes with repeated presentations, a phenomenon known as repetition suppression. We here use neuroimaging to demonstrate that repetition suppression appears to be a special case of "prediction suppression"--that is, the brain shows diminishing activity when subsequent stimuli in a train are predictable. This demonstration supports the hypothesis that the brain dynamically leverages prediction to minimize energy consumption.

  7. Evaluating Prediction Markets for Internal Control Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-05-01

    would influence the survey indicators, the prediction market prices, and their sensitivity to misinformation. Finally, this study reveal s the results...realized in an academ ic setting. With a controll able number of influencing factors, the prediction markets were installed in several uni versity courses...of acceptance and the limited number of influencing factors in an academic setting, it is expected that the prediction market will perform

  8. Protein secondary structure: category assignment and predictability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Claus A.; Bohr, Henrik; Brunak, Søren

    2001-01-01

    In the last decade, the prediction of protein secondary structure has been optimized using essentially one and the same assignment scheme known as DSSP. We present here a different scheme, which is more predictable. This scheme predicts directly the hydrogen bonds, which stabilize the secondary......-forward neural network with one hidden layer on a data set identical to the one used in earlier work....

  9. Sports Tournament Predictions Using Direct Manipulation

    OpenAIRE

    Vuillemot , Romain; Perin , Charles

    2016-01-01

    An advanced interface for sports tournament predictions uses direct manipulation to allow users to make nonlinear predictions. Unlike previous interface designs, the interface helps users focus on their prediction tasks by enabling them to first choose a winner and then fill out the rest of the bracket. In real-world tests of the proposed interface (for the 2014 FIFA World Cup tournament and 2015/2016 UEFA Champions League), the authors validated the use of direct manipulation as an alternati...

  10. Predictive Trip Detection for Nuclear Power Plants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rankin, Drew J.; Jiang, Jin

    2016-08-01

    This paper investigates the use of a Kalman filter (KF) to predict, within the shutdown system (SDS) of a nuclear power plant (NPP), whether safety parameter measurements have reached a trip set-point. In addition, least squares (LS) estimation compensates for prediction error due to system-model mismatch. The motivation behind predictive shutdown is to reduce the amount of time between the occurrence of a fault or failure and the time of trip detection, referred to as time-to-trip. These reductions in time-to-trip can ultimately lead to increases in safety and productivity margins. The proposed predictive SDS differs from conventional SDSs in that it compares point-predictions of the measurements, rather than sensor measurements, against trip set-points. The predictive SDS is validated through simulation and experiments for the steam generator water level safety parameter. Performance of the proposed predictive SDS is compared against benchmark conventional SDS with respect to time-to-trip. In addition, this paper analyzes: prediction uncertainty, as well as; the conditions under which it is possible to achieve reduced time-to-trip. Simulation results demonstrate that on average the predictive SDS reduces time-to-trip by an amount of time equal to the length of the prediction horizon and that the distribution of times-to-trip is approximately Gaussian. Experimental results reveal that a reduced time-to-trip can be achieved in a real-world system with unknown system-model mismatch and that the predictive SDS can be implemented with a scan time of under 100ms. Thus, this paper is a proof of concept for KF/LS-based predictive trip detection.

  11. Forecasting hotspots using predictive visual analytics approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maciejewski, Ross; Hafen, Ryan; Rudolph, Stephen; Cleveland, William; Ebert, David

    2014-12-30

    A method for forecasting hotspots is provided. The method may include the steps of receiving input data at an input of the computational device, generating a temporal prediction based on the input data, generating a geospatial prediction based on the input data, and generating output data based on the time series and geospatial predictions. The output data may be configured to display at least one user interface at an output of the computational device.

  12. Probabilistic approach to earthquake prediction.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. D'Addezio

    2002-06-01

    Full Text Available The evaluation of any earthquake forecast hypothesis requires the application of rigorous statistical methods. It implies a univocal definition of the model characterising the concerned anomaly or precursor, so as it can be objectively recognised in any circumstance and by any observer.A valid forecast hypothesis is expected to maximise successes and minimise false alarms. The probability gain associated to a precursor is also a popular way to estimate the quality of the predictions based on such precursor. Some scientists make use of a statistical approach based on the computation of the likelihood of an observed realisation of seismic events, and on the comparison of the likelihood obtained under different hypotheses. This method can be extended to algorithms that allow the computation of the density distribution of the conditional probability of earthquake occurrence in space, time and magnitude. Whatever method is chosen for building up a new hypothesis, the final assessment of its validity should be carried out by a test on a new and independent set of observations. The implementation of this test could, however, be problematic for seismicity characterised by long-term recurrence intervals. Even using the historical record, that may span time windows extremely variable between a few centuries to a few millennia, we have a low probability to catch more than one or two events on the same fault. Extending the record of earthquakes of the past back in time up to several millennia, paleoseismology represents a great opportunity to study how earthquakes recur through time and thus provide innovative contributions to time-dependent seismic hazard assessment. Sets of paleoseimologically dated earthquakes have been established for some faults in the Mediterranean area: the Irpinia fault in Southern Italy, the Fucino fault in Central Italy, the El Asnam fault in Algeria and the Skinos fault in Central Greece. By using the age of the

  13. Bronchial thermoplasty: activations predict response.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langton, David; Sha, Joy; Ing, Alvin; Fielding, David; Thien, Francis; Plummer, Virginia

    2017-07-04

    Bronchial thermoplasty (BT) is an emerging bronchoscopic intervention for the treatment of severe asthma. The predictive factors for clinical response to BT are unknown. We examined the relationship between the number of radiofrequency activations applied and the treatment response observed. Data were collected from 24 consecutive cases treated at three Australian centres from June 2014 to March 2016. The baseline characteristics were collated along with the activations delivered. The primary response measure was change in the Asthma Control Questionnaire-5 (ACQ-5) score measured at 6 months post BT. The relationship between change in outcome parameters and the number of activations delivered was explored. All patients met the ERS/ATS definition for severe asthma. At 6 months post treatment, mean ACQ-5 improved from 3.3 ± 1.1 to 1.5 ± 1.1, p < 0.001. The minimal clinically significant improvement in ACQ-5 of ≥0.5 was observed in 21 out of 24 patients. The only significant variable that differed between the 21 responders and the three non-responders was the number of activations delivered, with 139 ± 11 activations in the non-responders, compared to 221 ± 45 activations in the responders (p < 0.01). A significant inverse correlation was found between change in ACQ-5 score and the number of activations, r = -0.43 (p < 0.05). The number of activations delivered during BT has a role in determining clinical response to treatment.

  14. Can we predict shoulder dystocia?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Revicky, Vladimir; Mukhopadhyay, Sambit; Morris, Edward P; Nieto, Jose J

    2012-02-01

    To analyse the significance of risk factors and the possibility of prediction of shoulder dystocia. This was a retrospective cohort study. There were 9,767 vaginal deliveries at 37 and more weeks of gestation analysed during 2005-2007. Studied population included 234 deliveries complicated by shoulder dystocia. Shoulder dystocia was defined as a delivery that required additional obstetric manoeuvres to release the shoulders after gentle downward traction has failed. First, a univariate analysis was done to identify the factors that had a significant association with shoulder dystocia. Parity, age, gestation, induction of labour, epidural analgesia, birth weight, duration of second stage of labour and mode of delivery were studied factors. All factors were then combined in a multivariate logistic regression analysis. Adjusted odds ratios (Adj. OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated. The incidence of shoulder dystocia was 2.4% (234/9,767). Only mode of delivery and birth weight were independent risk factors for shoulder dystocia. Parity, age, gestation, induction of labour, epidural analgesia and duration of second stage of labour were not independent risk factors. Ventouse delivery increases the risk of shoulder dystocia almost 3 times, forceps delivery comparing to the ventouse delivery increases risk almost 3.4 times. Risk of shoulder dystocia is minimal with the birth weight of 3,000 g or less. It is difficult to foretell the exact birth weight and the mode of delivery, therefore occurrence of shoulder dystocia is highly unpredictable. Regular drills for shoulder dystocia and awareness of increased incidence with instrumental deliveries are important to reduce fetal and maternal morbidity and mortality.

  15. Prediction of tar ball formation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khelifa, A.; Gamble, L.

    2006-01-01

    The presence of small tar balls ranging in size from less than a millimetre to 60 centimetres have been observed during cleanup assessment operations following accidental oil spills on water. The tar balls are composed of heavy oil residues and suspended particulate matter (SPM) from the water column. They can be found on shorelines, settled on the seafloor and floating at or near the water surface. Their abundance on the shorelines varies from site to site and depends on the conditions of the spill and mixing conditions. Aggregation between SPM and micro-sized oil droplets occurs naturally in coastal waters and enhances the dispersion of spilled oil. Although tar balls are among the important end states of spilled oil in the marine environment, no model exists to estimate the percentage of the spilled oil that becomes tar balls. This paper offered some insight into the modeling of tar ball formation. Current modeling understanding of oil-SPM aggregate formation was used to predict tar ball formation. The formation of oil droplets was examined with respect to a range of conditions under which the formation of large droplets is expected. The role of aggregation was then presented to demonstrate the effects of concentration and type of SPM on the buoyancy of tar balls. Good agreement was found between modeling results and field data reported in the literature regarding the size and density of tar balls. Oil viscosity and mixing energy were found to be the main factors controlling the formation of tar balls. The aggregation of tar balls with SPM and shoreline material results in significant increases or decreases in density, depending on the type and concentration of SPM. 42 refs., 2 tabs., 6 figs

  16. Predicting language: MEG evidence for lexical preactivation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dikker, Suzanne; Pylkkänen, Liina

    2013-10-01

    It is widely assumed that prediction plays a substantial role in language processing. However, despite numerous studies demonstrating that contextual information facilitates both syntactic and lexical-semantic processing, there exists no direct evidence pertaining to the neural correlates of the prediction process itself. Using magnetoencephalography (MEG), this study found that brain activity was modulated by whether or not a specific noun could be predicted, given a picture prime. Specifically, before the noun was presented, predictive contexts triggered enhanced activation in left mid-temporal cortex (implicated in lexical access), ventro-medial prefrontal cortex (previously associated with top-down processing), and visual cortex (hypothesized to index the preactivation of predicted form features), successively. This finding suggests that predictive language processing recruits a top-down network where predicted words are activated at different levels of representation, from more 'abstract' lexical-semantic representations in temporal cortex, all the way down to visual word form features. The same brain regions that exhibited enhanced activation for predictive contexts before the onset of the noun showed effects of congruence during the target word. To our knowledge, this study is one of the first to directly investigate the anticipatory stage of predictive language processing. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Predictability of extreme values in geophysical models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. E. Sterk

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Extreme value theory in deterministic systems is concerned with unlikely large (or small values of an observable evaluated along evolutions of the system. In this paper we study the finite-time predictability of extreme values, such as convection, energy, and wind speeds, in three geophysical models. We study whether finite-time Lyapunov exponents are larger or smaller for initial conditions leading to extremes. General statements on whether extreme values are better or less predictable are not possible: the predictability of extreme values depends on the observable, the attractor of the system, and the prediction lead time.

  18. Implementation of short-term prediction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Landberg, L.; Joensen, A.; Giebel, G. [and others

    1999-03-01

    This paper will giver a general overview of the results from a EU JOULE funded project (`Implementing short-term prediction at utilities`, JOR3-CT95-0008). Reference will be given to specialised papers where applicable. The goal of the project was to implement wind farm power output prediction systems in operational environments at a number of utilities in Europe. Two models were developed, one by Risoe and one by the Technical University of Denmark (DTU). Both prediction models used HIRLAM predictions from the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI). (au) EFP-94; EU-JOULE. 11 refs.

  19. Predictions of High Energy Experimental Results

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Comay E.

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Eight predictions of high energy experimental results are presented. The predictions contain the + charge radius and results of two kinds of experiments using energetic pionic beams. In addition, predictions of the failure to find the following objects are presented: glueballs, pentaquarks, Strange Quark Matter, magnetic monopoles searched by their direct interaction with charges and the Higgs boson. The first seven predictions rely on the Regular Charge-Monopole Theory and the last one relies on mathematical inconsistencies of the Higgs Lagrangian density.

  20. Improved interpretation and validation of CFD predictions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Popiolek, Z.; Melikov, Arsen Krikor

    2004-01-01

    The mean velocity in rooms predicted by CFD simulations based on RANS equations differs from the mean (in time) magnitude of the velocity, i.e. the mean speed, in rooms measured by low velocity thermal anemometers with omnidirectional sensor. This discrepancy results in incorrect thermal comfort...... assessment by the CFD predictions as well as incorrect validation of the predicted velocity field. In this paper the discrepancies are discussed and identified, and a method for estimating of the mean speed based on the CFD predictions of mean velocity and kinetic turbulence energy is suggested. The method...

  1. MHC Class II epitope predictive algorithms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Morten; Lund, Ole; Buus, S

    2010-01-01

    in the predictions. All attempts to make ab initio predictions based on protein structure have failed to reach predictive performances similar to those that can be obtained by data-driven methods. Thousands of different MHC-II alleles exist in humans. Recently developed pan-specific methods have been able to make...... reasonably accurate predictions for alleles that were not included in the training data. These methods can be used to define supertypes (clusters) of MHC-II alleles where alleles within each supertype have similar binding specificities. Furthermore, the pan-specific methods have been used to make a graphical...

  2. Predicting Social Behavior from Personality Traits

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaccard, James J.

    1974-01-01

    The classic view of traits as dispositions was examined and a number of ambiguities noted. When clarified, implication for predicting social behaviors from personality variables were derived. (Editor)

  3. Predicting gene expression from sequence: a reexamination.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuan Yuan

    2007-11-01

    Full Text Available Although much of the information regarding genes' expressions is encoded in the genome, deciphering such information has been very challenging. We reexamined Beer and Tavazoie's (BT approach to predict mRNA expression patterns of 2,587 genes in Saccharomyces cerevisiae from the information in their respective promoter sequences. Instead of fitting complex Bayesian network models, we trained naïve Bayes classifiers using only the sequence-motif matching scores provided by BT. Our simple models correctly predict expression patterns for 79% of the genes, based on the same criterion and the same cross-validation (CV procedure as BT, which compares favorably to the 73% accuracy of BT. The fact that our approach did not use position and orientation information of the predicted binding sites but achieved a higher prediction accuracy, motivated us to investigate a few biological predictions made by BT. We found that some of their predictions, especially those related to motif orientations and positions, are at best circumstantial. For example, the combinatorial rules suggested by BT for the PAC and RRPE motifs are not unique to the cluster of genes from which the predictive model was inferred, and there are simpler rules that are statistically more significant than BT's ones. We also show that CV procedure used by BT to estimate their method's prediction accuracy is inappropriate and may have overestimated the prediction accuracy by about 10%.

  4. Decadel climate prediction: challenges and opportunities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hurrell, J W

    2008-01-01

    The scientific understanding of climate change is now sufficiently clear to show that climate change from global warming is already upon us, and the rate of change as projected exceeds anything seen in nature in the past 10,000 years. Uncertainties remain, however, especially regarding how climate will change at regional and local scales where the signal of natural variability is large. Addressing many of these uncertainties will require a movement toward high resolution climate system predictions, with a blurring of the distinction between shorter-term predictions and longer-term climate projections. The key is the realization that climate system predictions, regardless of timescale, will require initialization of coupled general circulation models with best estimates of the current observed state of the atmosphere, oceans, cryosphere, and land surface. Formidable challenges exist: for instance, what is the best method of initialization given imperfect observations and systematic errors in models? What effect does initialization have on climate predictions? What predictions should be attempted, and how would they be verified? Despite such challenges, the unrealized predictability that resides in slowly evolving phenomena, such as ocean current systems, is of paramount importance for society to plan and adapt for the next few decades. Moreover, initialized climate predictions will require stronger collaboration with shared knowledge, infrastructure and technical capabilities among those in the weather and climate prediction communities. The potential benefits include improved understanding and predictions on all time scales

  5. Recent Advances in Predictive (Machine) Learning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Friedman, J

    2004-01-24

    Prediction involves estimating the unknown value of an attribute of a system under study given the values of other measured attributes. In prediction (machine) learning the prediction rule is derived from data consisting of previously solved cases. Most methods for predictive learning were originated many years ago at the dawn of the computer age. Recently two new techniques have emerged that have revitalized the field. These are support vector machines and boosted decision trees. This paper provides an introduction to these two new methods tracing their respective ancestral roots to standard kernel methods and ordinary decision trees.

  6. Understanding predictability and exploration in human mobility

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cuttone, Andrea; Jørgensen, Sune Lehmann; González, Marta C.

    2018-01-01

    Predictive models for human mobility have important applications in many fields including traffic control, ubiquitous computing, and contextual advertisement. The predictive performance of models in literature varies quite broadly, from over 90% to under 40%. In this work we study which underlying...... strong influence on the accuracy of prediction. Finally we reveal that the exploration of new locations is an important factor in human mobility, and we measure that on average 20-25% of transitions are to new places, and approx. 70% of locations are visited only once. We discuss how these mechanisms...... are important factors limiting our ability to predict human mobility....

  7. Tail Risk Premia and Return Predictability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bollerslev, Tim; Todorov, Viktor; Xu, Lai

    The variance risk premium, defined as the difference between actual and risk-neutralized expectations of the forward aggregate market variation, helps predict future market returns. Relying on new essentially model-free estimation procedure, we show that much of this predictability may be attribu......The variance risk premium, defined as the difference between actual and risk-neutralized expectations of the forward aggregate market variation, helps predict future market returns. Relying on new essentially model-free estimation procedure, we show that much of this predictability may......-varying economic uncertainty and changes in risk aversion, or market fears, respectively....

  8. Final Technical Report: Increasing Prediction Accuracy.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    King, Bruce Hardison [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hansen, Clifford [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Stein, Joshua [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2015-12-01

    PV performance models are used to quantify the value of PV plants in a given location. They combine the performance characteristics of the system, the measured or predicted irradiance and weather at a site, and the system configuration and design into a prediction of the amount of energy that will be produced by a PV system. These predictions must be as accurate as possible in order for finance charges to be minimized. Higher accuracy equals lower project risk. The Increasing Prediction Accuracy project at Sandia focuses on quantifying and reducing uncertainties in PV system performance models.

  9. Programming Useful Life Prediction (PULP) Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Accurately predicting Remaining Useful Life (RUL) provides significant benefits—it increases safety and reduces financial and labor resource requirements....

  10. Stock price prediction using geometric Brownian motion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farida Agustini, W.; Restu Affianti, Ika; Putri, Endah RM

    2018-03-01

    Geometric Brownian motion is a mathematical model for predicting the future price of stock. The phase that done before stock price prediction is determine stock expected price formulation and determine the confidence level of 95%. On stock price prediction using geometric Brownian Motion model, the algorithm starts from calculating the value of return, followed by estimating value of volatility and drift, obtain the stock price forecast, calculating the forecast MAPE, calculating the stock expected price and calculating the confidence level of 95%. Based on the research, the output analysis shows that geometric Brownian motion model is the prediction technique with high rate of accuracy. It is proven with forecast MAPE value ≤ 20%.

  11. Deterministic prediction of surface wind speed variations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. V. Drisya

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Accurate prediction of wind speed is an important aspect of various tasks related to wind energy management such as wind turbine predictive control and wind power scheduling. The most typical characteristic of wind speed data is its persistent temporal variations. Most of the techniques reported in the literature for prediction of wind speed and power are based on statistical methods or probabilistic distribution of wind speed data. In this paper we demonstrate that deterministic forecasting methods can make accurate short-term predictions of wind speed using past data, at locations where the wind dynamics exhibit chaotic behaviour. The predictions are remarkably accurate up to 1 h with a normalised RMSE (root mean square error of less than 0.02 and reasonably accurate up to 3 h with an error of less than 0.06. Repeated application of these methods at 234 different geographical locations for predicting wind speeds at 30-day intervals for 3 years reveals that the accuracy of prediction is more or less the same across all locations and time periods. Comparison of the results with f-ARIMA model predictions shows that the deterministic models with suitable parameters are capable of returning improved prediction accuracy and capturing the dynamical variations of the actual time series more faithfully. These methods are simple and computationally efficient and require only records of past data for making short-term wind speed forecasts within practically tolerable margin of errors.

  12. Predictions of High Energy Experimental Results

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Comay E.

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Eight predictions of high energy experimental results are presented. The predictions contain the $Sigma ^+$ charge radius and results of two kinds of experiments using energetic pionic beams. In addition, predictions of the failure to find the following objects are presented: glueballs, pentaquarks, Strange Quark Matter, magnetic monopoles searched by their direct interaction with charges and the Higgs boson. The first seven predictions rely on the Regular Charge-Monopole Theory and the last one relies on mathematical inconsistencies of the Higgs Lagrangian density.

  13. Protein conformational flexibility prediction using machine learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trott, Oleg; Siggers, Keri; Rost, Burkhard; Palmer, Arthur G

    2008-05-01

    Using a data set of 16 proteins, a neural network has been trained to predict backbone 15N generalized order parameters from the three-dimensional structures of proteins. The final network parameterization contains six input features. The average prediction accuracy, as measured by the Pearson's correlation coefficient between experimental and predicted values of the square of the generalized order parameter is >0.70. Predicted order parameters for non-terminal amino acid residues depends most strongly on the local packing density and the probability that the residue is located in regular secondary structure.

  14. Drought Predictability and Prediction in a Changing Climate: Assessing Current Predictive Knowledge and Capabilities, User Requirements and Research Priorities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schubert, Siegfried

    2011-01-01

    Drought is fundamentally the result of an extended period of reduced precipitation lasting anywhere from a few weeks to decades and even longer. As such, addressing drought predictability and prediction in a changing climate requires foremost that we make progress on the ability to predict precipitation anomalies on subseasonal and longer time scales. From the perspective of the users of drought forecasts and information, drought is however most directly viewed through its impacts (e.g., on soil moisture, streamflow, crop yields). As such, the question of the predictability of drought must extend to those quantities as well. In order to make progress on these issues, the WCRP drought information group (DIG), with the support of WCRP, the Catalan Institute of Climate Sciences, the La Caixa Foundation, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and the National Science Foundation, has organized a workshop to focus on: 1. User requirements for drought prediction information on sub-seasonal to centennial time scales 2. Current understanding of the mechanisms and predictability of drought on sub-seasonal to centennial time scales 3. Current drought prediction/projection capabilities on sub-seasonal to centennial time scales 4. Advancing regional drought prediction capabilities for variables and scales most relevant to user needs on sub-seasonal to centennial time scales. This introductory talk provides an overview of these goals, and outlines the occurrence and mechanisms of drought world-wide.

  15. Continuous-Discrete Time Prediction-Error Identification Relevant for Linear Model Predictive Control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, John Bagterp; Jørgensen, Sten Bay

    2007-01-01

    A Prediction-error-method tailored for model based predictive control is presented. The prediction-error method studied are based on predictions using the Kalman filter and Kalman predictors for a linear discrete-time stochastic state space model. The linear discrete-time stochastic state space...... model is realized from a continuous-discrete-time linear stochastic system specified using transfer functions with time-delays. It is argued that the prediction-error criterion should be selected such that it is compatible with the objective function of the predictive controller in which the model...

  16. Computer loss experience and predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parker, Donn B.

    1996-03-01

    The types of losses organizations must anticipate have become more difficult to predict because of the eclectic nature of computers and the data communications and the decrease in news media reporting of computer-related losses as they become commonplace. Total business crime is conjectured to be decreasing in frequency and increasing in loss per case as a result of increasing computer use. Computer crimes are probably increasing, however, as their share of the decreasing business crime rate grows. Ultimately all business crime will involve computers in some way, and we could see a decline of both together. The important information security measures in high-loss business crime generally concern controls over authorized people engaged in unauthorized activities. Such controls include authentication of users, analysis of detailed audit records, unannounced audits, segregation of development and production systems and duties, shielding the viewing of screens, and security awareness and motivation controls in high-value transaction areas. Computer crimes that involve highly publicized intriguing computer misuse methods, such as privacy violations, radio frequency emanations eavesdropping, and computer viruses, have been reported in waves that periodically have saturated the news media during the past 20 years. We must be able to anticipate such highly publicized crimes and reduce the impact and embarrassment they cause. On the basis of our most recent experience, I propose nine new types of computer crime to be aware of: computer larceny (theft and burglary of small computers), automated hacking (use of computer programs to intrude), electronic data interchange fraud (business transaction fraud), Trojan bomb extortion and sabotage (code security inserted into others' systems that can be triggered to cause damage), LANarchy (unknown equipment in use), desktop forgery (computerized forgery and counterfeiting of documents), information anarchy (indiscriminate use of

  17. Intelligent Predictive Control of Nonlienar Processes Using

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nørgård, Peter Magnus; Sørensen, Paul Haase; Poulsen, Niels Kjølstad

    1996-01-01

    This paper presents a novel approach to design of generalized predictive controllers (GPC) for nonlinear processes. A neural network is used for modelling the process and a gain-scheduling type of GPC is subsequently designed. The combination of neural network models and predictive control has...

  18. PRESSURE ANALYSIS AND FLUID CONTACT PREDICTION FOR ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    As pressure data was not acquired in the water leg of the reservoir, pressure gradient analysis was done with the field-wide hydrostatic profile for contact and fluid prediction. Also, an evaluation of the possibility of having an oil rim within the region of fluid-type uncertainty was carried out. The predicted results revealed that ...

  19. Infants Generate Goal-Based Action Predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cannon, Erin N.; Woodward, Amanda L.

    2012-01-01

    Predicting the actions of others is critical to smooth social interactions. Prior work suggests that both understanding and anticipation of goal-directed actions appears early in development. In this study, on-line goal prediction was tested explicitly using an adaptation of Woodward's (1998) paradigm for an eye-tracking task. Twenty 11-month-olds…

  20. Predicting Information Flows in Network Traffic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hinich, Melvin J.; Molyneux, Robert E.

    2003-01-01

    Discusses information flow in networks and predicting network traffic and describes a study that uses time series analysis on a day's worth of Internet log data. Examines nonlinearity and traffic invariants, and suggests that prediction of network traffic may not be possible with current techniques. (Author/LRW)

  1. Predictive Model of Systemic Toxicity (SOT)

    Science.gov (United States)

    In an effort to ensure chemical safety in light of regulatory advances away from reliance on animal testing, USEPA and L’Oréal have collaborated to develop a quantitative systemic toxicity prediction model. Prediction of human systemic toxicity has proved difficult and remains a ...

  2. Predictive models for arteriovenous fistula maturation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al Shakarchi, Julien; McGrogan, Damian; Van der Veer, Sabine; Sperrin, Matthew; Inston, Nicholas

    2016-05-07

    Haemodialysis (HD) is a lifeline therapy for patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD). A critical factor in the survival of renal dialysis patients is the surgical creation of vascular access, and international guidelines recommend arteriovenous fistulas (AVF) as the gold standard of vascular access for haemodialysis. Despite this, AVFs have been associated with high failure rates. Although risk factors for AVF failure have been identified, their utility for predicting AVF failure through predictive models remains unclear. The objectives of this review are to systematically and critically assess the methodology and reporting of studies developing prognostic predictive models for AVF outcomes and assess them for suitability in clinical practice. Electronic databases were searched for studies reporting prognostic predictive models for AVF outcomes. Dual review was conducted to identify studies that reported on the development or validation of a model constructed to predict AVF outcome following creation. Data were extracted on study characteristics, risk predictors, statistical methodology, model type, as well as validation process. We included four different studies reporting five different predictive models. Parameters identified that were common to all scoring system were age and cardiovascular disease. This review has found a small number of predictive models in vascular access. The disparity between each study limits the development of a unified predictive model.

  3. Model Predictive Control Fundamentals | Orukpe | Nigerian Journal ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Model Predictive Control (MPC) has developed considerably over the last two decades, both within the research control community and in industries. MPC strategy involves the optimization of a performance index with respect to some future control sequence, using predictions of the output signal based on a process model, ...

  4. Huntington's disease : Psychological aspects of predictive testing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Timman, Reinier

    2005-01-01

    Predictive testing for Huntington's disease appears to have long lasting psychological effects. The predictive test for Huntington's disease (HD), a hereditary disease of the nervous system, was introduced in the Netherlands in the late eighties. As adverse consequences of the test were

  5. Preoperative Prediction of Difficult Laparoscopic Cholecystectomy: A ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... collection (P - 0.04), and abdominal scar due to previous abdominal surgery (P ‑ 0.009) were found statistically significant in predicting difficult LC. Conclusion: The proposed scoring system is reliable with a sensitivity of 76.47% and specificity of 100%. Keywords: Difficult, laparoscopic cholecystectomy, prediction, scoring ...

  6. Differential Prediction Generalization in College Admissions Testing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aguinis, Herman; Culpepper, Steven A.; Pierce, Charles A.

    2016-01-01

    We introduce the concept of "differential prediction generalization" in the context of college admissions testing. Specifically, we assess the extent to which predicted first-year college grade point average (GPA) based on high-school grade point average (HSGPA) and SAT scores depends on a student's ethnicity and gender and whether this…

  7. Unreachable Setpoints in Model Predictive Control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rawlings, James B.; Bonné, Dennis; Jørgensen, John Bagterp

    2008-01-01

    In this work, a new model predictive controller is developed that handles unreachable setpoints better than traditional model predictive control methods. The new controller induces an interesting fast/slow asymmetry in the tracking response of the system. Nominal asymptotic stability of the optim...

  8. An Improved Algorithm for Predicting Free Recalls

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laming, Donald

    2008-01-01

    Laming [Laming, D. (2006). "Predicting free recalls." "Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition," 32, 1146-1163] has shown that, in a free-recall experiment in which the participants rehearsed out loud, entire sequences of recalls could be predicted, to a useful degree of precision, from the prior sequences of stimuli…

  9. Verification, validation, and reliability of predictions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pigford, T.H.; Chambre, P.L.

    1987-04-01

    The objective of predicting long-term performance should be to make reliable determinations of whether the prediction falls within the criteria for acceptable performance. Establishing reliable predictions of long-term performance of a waste repository requires emphasis on valid theories to predict performance. The validation process must establish the validity of the theory, the parameters used in applying the theory, the arithmetic of calculations, and the interpretation of results; but validation of such performance predictions is not possible unless there are clear criteria for acceptable performance. Validation programs should emphasize identification of the substantive issues of prediction that need to be resolved. Examples relevant to waste package performance are predicting the life of waste containers and the time distribution of container failures, establishing the criteria for defining container failure, validating theories for time-dependent waste dissolution that depend on details of the repository environment, and determining the extent of congruent dissolution of radionuclides in the UO 2 matrix of spent fuel. Prediction and validation should go hand in hand and should be done and reviewed frequently, as essential tools for the programs to design and develop repositories. 29 refs

  10. Predicting formation enthalpies of metal hydrides

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andreasen, A.

    2004-01-01

    of elements from the periodic table are yet to beexplored. Since experimental determination of thermodynamic properties of the vast combinations of elements is tedious it may be advantagous to have a predictive tool for this task. In this report different ways of predicting #DELTA#H_f for binary andternary...

  11. Predicting alcohol use by adolescent males.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Udry, J R

    1991-10-01

    An attempt was made to predict alcohol use among 101 American white boys aged 13-16. The model combined genetic and social variables. The analysis revealed evidence of a genotype-environment interaction and thus the use of either the biological or social variables alone poorly predicts alcohol use.

  12. The relative value of operon predictions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brouwer, Rutger W. W.; Kuipers, Oscar P.; van Hijum, Sacha A. F. T.

    For most organisms, computational operon predictions are the only source of genome-wide operon information. Operon prediction methods described in literature are based on (a combination of) the following five criteria: (i) intergenic distance, (ii) conserved gene clusters, (iii) functional relation,

  13. Predictability in models of the atmospheric circulation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Houtekamer, P.L.

    1992-01-01

    It will be clear from the above discussions that skill forecasts are still in their infancy. Operational skill predictions do not exist. One is still struggling to prove that skill predictions, at any range, have any quality at all. It is not clear what the statistics of the analysis error

  14. Predictability of Returns and Cash Flows

    OpenAIRE

    Ralph S.J. Koijen; Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh

    2010-01-01

    We review the literature on return and cash-flow growth predictability from the perspective of the present-value identity. We focus predominantly on recent work. Our emphasis is on U.S. aggregate stock return predictability, but we also discuss evidence from other asset classes and countries.

  15. Fuzzy Predictions for Strategic Decision Making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hallin, Carina Antonia; Andersen, Torben Juul; Tveterås, Sigbjørn

    This article theorizes a new way to predict firm performance based on aggregation of sensing among frontline employees about changes in operational capabilities to update strategic action plans. We frame the approach in the context of first- and second-generation prediction markets and outline its...

  16. Predictability of the terrestrial carbon cycle.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Yiqi; Keenan, Trevor F; Smith, Matthew

    2015-05-01

    Terrestrial ecosystems sequester roughly 30% of anthropogenic carbon emission. However this estimate has not been directly deduced from studies of terrestrial ecosystems themselves, but inferred from atmospheric and oceanic data. This raises a question: to what extent is the terrestrial carbon cycle intrinsically predictable? In this paper, we investigated fundamental properties of the terrestrial carbon cycle, examined its intrinsic predictability, and proposed a suite of future research directions to improve empirical understanding and model predictive ability. Specifically, we isolated endogenous internal processes of the terrestrial carbon cycle from exogenous forcing variables. The internal processes share five fundamental properties (i.e., compartmentalization, carbon input through photosynthesis, partitioning among pools, donor pool-dominant transfers, and the first-order decay) among all types of ecosystems on the Earth. The five properties together result in an emergent constraint on predictability of various carbon cycle components in response to five classes of exogenous forcing. Future observational and experimental research should be focused on those less predictive components while modeling research needs to improve model predictive ability for those highly predictive components. We argue that an understanding of predictability should provide guidance on future observational, experimental and modeling research. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  17. Surgical Apgar Score predicts postoperative complications in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Background: Predicting complications in neurotrauma patients by using an effective scoring system can reduce morbidity and mortality while facilitating objective clinical decision making during recovery. Compared to existing morbidity and mortality predictive scores, the Surgical Apgar Score (SAS) is simple and effective.

  18. Nucleic acid secondary structure prediction and display.

    OpenAIRE

    Stüber, K

    1986-01-01

    A set of programs has been developed for the prediction and display of nucleic acid secondary structures. Information from experimental data can be used to restrict or enforce secondary structural elements. The predictions can be displayed either on normal line printers or on graphic devices like plotters or graphic terminals.

  19. Relationship between water temperature predictability and aquatic ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Variable seasonal stream temperatures are a critical factor in maintaining aquatic invertebrate community patterns. We investigated whether the degree of predictability in a stream's water temperature profile provides insights into the structure and functional predictability of macroinvertebrate communities. Quarterly ...

  20. SATURATED PROPERTIES PREDICTION IN CRITICAL REGION ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Preferred Customer

    vapor pressure prediction and saturated volume prediction in vicinity of critical point. KEY WORDS. KEY WORDS: Equation of state, Saturated properties, ..... The AARD between experimental and calculated saturated vapor molar volume given by. Trebble [18] were 5.81, 5.34, 5.08, and 10.62 for SRK, PR, CCOR, and PT, ...