WorldWideScience

Sample records for assessment reference scenario

  1. Reference Scenario Forecasting: A New Approach to Transport Project Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang; Leleur, Steen; Skougaard, Britt Zoëga

    2010-01-01

    forecasting (RSF) frame. The RSF is anchored in the cost-benefit analysis (CBA), thus, it provides decision-makers with a quantitative mean of assessing the transport infrastructure project. First, the RSF method introduces uncertainties within the CBA by applying Optimism Bias uplifts on the preliminary......This paper presents a new approach to transport project assessment in terms of feasibility risk assessment and reference class forecasting. Normally, transport project assessment is based upon a cost-benefit approach where evaluation criteria such as net present values are obtained. Recent research...... distribution functions. The latter have been placed and ultimately simulated on the inaccuracies of determining demand forecasts, i.e. leading to the travel time savings and ticket revenues of the project. Finally, RSF makes use of scenario forecasting where trend scenarios such as economic growth and level...

  2. [IQWiG's methods for the cost-benefit assessment : Comparison with an international reference scenario].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwalm, A; Danner, M; Seidl, A; Volz, F; Dintsios, C M; Gerber, A

    2010-06-01

    Standardization of international health economic guidelines has been repeatedly requested. In this context, an international reference case was proposed, which constitutes an agreed approach for the key elements of health economic evaluation including study perspective, comparators, source of effectiveness data, role of modeling, main (economic) outcome, source of utilities, characterizing uncertainty. It is, however, questionable whether such a reference scenario can reasonably be applied across all health care systems. Our analysis pursues the question to which degree the Institute for Quality and Efficiency in Health Care's (Institut für Qualität und Wirtschaftlichkeit im Gesundheitswesen, IQWiG) "General methods for evaluating the relation between cost and benefit" comply with the key elements of the reference case. In case of divergences, they will be described and discussed in light of the German social legislation and in consideration of current scientific evidence. In conclusion, the analysis revealed that IQWiG complied with the reference case in almost all aspects. Differences were found only with respect to the choice of main (economic) outcome and the source of utilities. These differences seem justified and well explained in the context of the German social legislation as well as in view of the weaknesses of the quality-adjusted life year (QALY) concept.

  3. Biomass Scenario Model Documentation: Data and References

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lin, Y.; Newes, E.; Bush, B.; Peterson, S.; Stright, D.

    2013-05-01

    The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a system dynamics model that represents the entire biomass-to-biofuels supply chain, from feedstock to fuel use. The BSM is a complex model that has been used for extensive analyses; the model and its results can be better understood if input data used for initialization and calibration are well-characterized. It has been carefully validated and calibrated against the available data, with data gaps filled in using expert opinion and internally consistent assumed values. Most of the main data sources that feed into the model are recognized as baseline values by the industry. This report documents data sources and references in Version 2 of the BSM (BSM2), which only contains the ethanol pathway, although subsequent versions of the BSM contain multiple conversion pathways. The BSM2 contains over 12,000 total input values, with 506 distinct variables. Many of the variables are opportunities for the user to define scenarios, while others are simply used to initialize a stock, such as the initial number of biorefineries. However, around 35% of the distinct variables are defined by external sources, such as models or reports. The focus of this report is to provide insight into which sources are most influential in each area of the supply chain.

  4. Reference life cycle assessment scenarios for manure management in the Baltic Sea Regions - An assessment covering six animal production, five BSR countries, and four manure types

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hamelin, Lorie; Baky, A; Cano-Bernal, J

    types (fattening pig slurry, dairy cow slurry, hens manure, bulls deep litter, fattening pig solid manure, dairy cow solid manure, horse manure & broilers manure) and five Baltic Sea Regions (Denmark, Sweden, Finland, Estonia, Poland), for a total of 15 reference systems. It presents, for each...... the manure is applied, specific legislations governing the manure management practices, etc.). Further, it presents a reference manure composition for each of these reference systems, including key parameters such as dry matter, nitrogen (inorganic and total), phosphorus, carbon and volatile solids content...

  5. Scenarios for coastal vulnerability assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicholls, Robert J.; Woodroffe, Colin D.; Burkett, Virginia; Hay, John; Wong, Poh Poh; Nurse, Leonard; Wolanski, Eric; McLusky, Donald S.

    2011-01-01

    Coastal vulnerability assessments tend to focus mainly on climate change and especially on sea-level rise. Assessment of the influence of nonclimatic environmental change or socioeconomic change is less well developed and these drivers are often completely ignored. Given that the most profound coastal changes of the twentieth century due to nonclimate drivers are likely to continue through the twenty-first century, this is a major omission. It may result in not only overstating the importance of climate change but also overlooking significant interactions of climate change and other drivers. To support the development of policies relating to climate change and coastal management, integrated assessments of climatic change in coastal areas are required, including the effects of all the relevant drivers. This chapter explores the development of scenarios (or "plausible futures") of relevant climate and nonclimate drivers that can be used for coastal analysis, with an emphasis on the nonclimate drivers. It shows the importance of analyzing the impacts of climate change and sea-level rise in a broader context of coastal change and all its drivers. This will improve the analysis of impacts, key vulnerabilities, and adaptation needs and, hence, inform climate and coastal policy. Stakeholder engagement is important in the development of scenarios, and the underlying assumptions need to be explicit, transparent, and open to scientific debate concerning their uncertainties/realism and likelihood.

  6. Uncertainty in Integrated Assessment Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mort Webster

    2005-10-17

    The determination of climate policy is a decision under uncertainty. The uncertainty in future climate change impacts is large, as is the uncertainty in the costs of potential policies. Rational and economically efficient policy choices will therefore seek to balance the expected marginal costs with the expected marginal benefits. This approach requires that the risks of future climate change be assessed. The decision process need not be formal or quantitative for descriptions of the risks to be useful. Whatever the decision procedure, a useful starting point is to have as accurate a description of climate risks as possible. Given the goal of describing uncertainty in future climate change, we need to characterize the uncertainty in the main causes of uncertainty in climate impacts. One of the major drivers of uncertainty in future climate change is the uncertainty in future emissions, both of greenhouse gases and other radiatively important species such as sulfur dioxide. In turn, the drivers of uncertainty in emissions are uncertainties in the determinants of the rate of economic growth and in the technologies of production and how those technologies will change over time. This project uses historical experience and observations from a large number of countries to construct statistical descriptions of variability and correlation in labor productivity growth and in AEEI. The observed variability then provides a basis for constructing probability distributions for these drivers. The variance of uncertainty in growth rates can be further modified by expert judgment if it is believed that future variability will differ from the past. But often, expert judgment is more readily applied to projected median or expected paths through time. Analysis of past variance and covariance provides initial assumptions about future uncertainty for quantities that are less intuitive and difficult for experts to estimate, and these variances can be normalized and then applied to mean

  7. Human health screening level risk assessments of tertiary-butyl acetate (TBAC): calculated acute and chronic reference concentration (RfC) and Hazard Quotient (HQ) values based on toxicity and exposure scenario evaluations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bus, James S; Banton, Marcy I; Faber, Willem D; Kirman, Christopher R; McGregor, Douglas B; Pourreau, Daniel B

    2015-02-01

    A screening level risk assessment has been performed for tertiary-butyl acetate (TBAC) examining its primary uses as a solvent in industrial and consumer products. Hazard quotients (HQ) were developed by merging TBAC animal toxicity and dose-response data with population-level, occupational and consumer exposure scenarios. TBAC has a low order of toxicity following subchronic inhalation exposure, and neurobehavioral changes (hyperactivity) in mice observed immediately after termination of exposure were used as conservative endpoints for derivation of acute and chronic reference concentration (RfC) values. TBAC is not genotoxic but has not been tested for carcinogenicity. However, TBAC is unlikely to be a human carcinogen in that its non-genotoxic metabolic surrogates tertiary-butanol (TBA) and methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) produce only male rat α-2u-globulin-mediated kidney cancer and high-dose specific mouse thyroid tumors, both of which have little qualitative or quantitative relevance to humans. Benchmark dose (BMD)-modeling of the neurobehavioral responses yielded acute and chronic RfC values of 1.5 ppm and 0.3 ppm, respectively. After conservative modeling of general population and near-source occupational and consumer product exposure scenarios, almost all HQs were substantially less than 1. HQs exceeding 1 were limited to consumer use of automotive products and paints in a poorly ventilated garage-sized room (HQ = 313) and occupational exposures in small and large brake shops using no personal protective equipment or ventilation controls (HQs = 3.4-126.6). The screening level risk assessments confirm low human health concerns with most uses of TBAC and indicate that further data-informed refinements can address problematic health/exposure scenarios. The assessments also illustrate how tier-based risk assessments using read-across toxicity information to metabolic surrogates reduce the need for comprehensive animal testing.

  8. The iTREN-2030 reference scenario until 2030. Deliverable D4

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fiorello, Davide; De Stasio, Claudia; Koehler, Jonathan; Kraft, Markus; Netwon, Sean; Purwanto, Joko; Schade, Burkhard; Schade, Wolfgang; Szimba, Eckhard

    2009-07-01

    The basic objective of iTREN-2030 is to extend the forecasting and assessment capabilities of the TRANS-TOOLS transport model to the new policy issues arising from the technology, environment and energy fields. This is achieved by couplin the TRANS-TOOLS model with three other models, ASTRA, POLES and TREMOVE covering these new policy issues. The TRANS-TOOLS transport network model has been developed to constitute the reference tool for supporting transport policy in the EU and currently is being developed in several European projects. The scenario set-up to be developed in iTREN-2030 has been modified, so that the projects develops a reference scenario and an integrated scenario. For the reference scenario, the three other modelling tools are harmonised with TRANS-TOOLS and made consistent with each other. This results in a coherent scenario for Europe until 2030 for technology, transport, energy, environment and economic development. The integrated scenario will consider the changing framework conditions until 2030, inparticular the policy pressure coming from climate policy and the increasing scarcity of fossil fuels as well as the impact of the financial and economic crisis. Within the iTREN-2030 project, the overall objective of Work Package 4 (WP4) producing tis deliverable is to develop the reference scenario for the quantitative projections using the four modelling tools involved in the project. The main aims of WP4 are to (a) define a consistent framework for using the different tools in an integrated way; (b) calibrate models with exchanged input to a coherent joint reference; (c) implement external input from WP3 and running models for projections; (d) produce output procedures and templates to facilitate assessment in WP5.

  9. Assessment of potential suspended sediment yield in Japan in the 21st century with reference to the general circulation model climate change scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mouri, Goro; Golosov, Valentin; Chalov, Sergey; Takizawa, Satoshi; Oguma, Kumiko; Yoshimura, Kei; Shiiba, Michiharu; Hori, Tomoharu; Oki, Taikan

    2013-03-01

    In recent decades, soil erosion by water has become a worldwide problem, especially with climate change and progressive declines in the ratio of natural resources to human populations. Changes in future climate will influence soil erosion, particularly suspended sediment (SS) yield, and alter the effectiveness of water resources management strategies from a water quality perspective. We qualitatively assessed future changes in SS yield in Japan. We focused on the impacts of future hydrological changes projected by two models, the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC) and the Meteorological Research Institute Atmospheric General Circulation Model (MRI-GCM), whose results have produced monthly data sets for the whole of Japan. The impacts of future climate changes on SS in Japan depend on the balance between changes in climatic and geologic factors. Methods for assessing impact using the catchment simulator were expanded to estimate the SS yield for the whole of Japan. The results indicated that SS generation will increase by the 2090s, with an 8% increase predicted using MRI-GCM data and a 24% increase using MIROC data, compared to present-day values measured by the Automated Meteorological Data Acquisition System (AMEDAS) of the Japan Meteorological Agency. Analysis by month showed the largest increases in SS in September, related to the frequency of extreme events such as typhoons. Increased SS can have negative effects on both society and the environment, including reduced crop productivity, worsened water quality, lower effective reservoir water levels, flooding and habitat destruction. Prediction of the impacts of future climate change on SS generation is crucial for effective environmental planning and management.

  10. Development of nonproliferation and assessment scenarios.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Finley, Melissa; Barnett, Natalie Beth

    2005-10-01

    The overall objective of the Nonproliferation and Assessments Scenario Development project is to create and analyze potential and plausible scenarios that would lead to an adversary's ability to acquire and use a biological weapon. The initial three months of funding was intended to be used to develop a scenario to demonstrate the efficacy of this analysis methodology; however, it was determined that a substantial amount of preliminary data collection would be needed before a proof of concept scenario could be developed. We have dedicated substantial effort to determine the acquisition pathways for Foot and Mouth Disease Virus, and similar processes will be applied to all pathogens of interest. We have developed a biosecurity assessments database to capture information on adversary skill locales, available skill sets in specific regions, pathogen sources and regulations involved in pathogen acquisition from legitimate facilities. FY06 funding, once released, will be dedicated to data collection on acquisition, production and dissemination requirements on a pathogen basis. Once pathogen data has been collected, scenarios will be developed and scored.

  11. Transport project evaluation: feasibility risk assessment and scenario forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang; Leleur, Steen

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents a new approach to transport project assessment in terms of feasibility risk assessment and reference class forecasting. Conventionally, transport project assessment is based upon a Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) where evaluation criteria such as Benefit Cost Ratios (BCR...... Scenario Forecasting (RSF) frame. The RSF is anchored in the cost-benefit analysis; thus, it provides decision-makers with a quantitative mean of assessing the transport infrastructure project. First, the RSF method introduces uncertainties within the CBA by applying Optimism Bias uplifts...... on the preliminary construction cost estimates. Hereafter, a quantitative risk analysis is provided making use of Monte Carlo simulation. This approach facilitates random input parameters based upon reference class forecasting, hence, a parameter data fit has been performed in order to obtain validated probability...

  12. Assessement of user needs for climate change scenarios in Switzerland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, Andreas; Liniger, Mark; Flückiger-Knutti, Jacqueline

    2016-04-01

    scenarios is, the more important becomes the need of comprehensibility, clarity and support when disseminating new climate scenarios. The survey reveals strongest needs for quantitative information on changes in extremes, an aspect that was handled in a qualitative way only in CH2011. Another cross-sectoral need are physically consistent data in time, space and between several variables. For instance, in agriculture the combination of heat and dryness is an important aspect, while the same is true in the energy sector for the combination of wind speed and global radiation (to assess energy production). The majority of interviewees appreciates to have the new scenarios with respect to the same reference period as in CH2011 due to comparability purposes. The survey also investigated the incorporation of provided scenario uncertainty into the businesses of the users. The survey shows that this largely depends on the type of users: while intensive users often can handle uncertainties, there are a lot of other users that either cannot or purposely do not make use of uncertainty. Results of the user survey will be presented and the consequences for the next generation of Swiss climate change scenarios are discussed.

  13. Climate change and coastal vulnerability assessment: Scenarios for integrated assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicholls, R.J.; Wong, P.P.; Burkett, V.; Woodroffe, C.D.; Hay, J.

    2008-01-01

    Coastal vulnerability assessments still focus mainly on sea-level rise, with less attention paid to other dimensions of climate change. The influence of non-climatic environmental change or socio-economic change is even less considered, and is often completely ignored. Given that the profound coastal changes of the twentieth century are likely to continue through the twenty-first century, this is a major omission, which may overstate the importance of climate change, and may also miss significant interactions of climate change with other non-climate drivers. To better support climate and coastal management policy development, more integrated assessments of climatic change in coastal areas are required, including the significant non-climatic changes. This paper explores the development of relevant climate and non-climate drivers, with an emphasis on the non-climate drivers. While these issues are applicable within any scenario framework, our ideas are illustrated using the widely used SRES scenarios, with both impacts and adaptation being considered. Importantly, scenario development is a process, and the assumptions that are made about future conditions concerning the coast need to be explicit, transparent and open to scientific debate concerning their realism and likelihood. These issues are generic across other sectors. ?? Integrated Research System for Sustainability Science and Springer 2008.

  14. Feature, Event, and Process Screening and Scenario Development for the Yucca Mountain Total System Performance Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barnard, R.; Barr, G.; Burch, P.; Freeze, G.; Rechard, R.; Schenker, A.; Swift, P.

    1999-04-05

    Scenario development has two primary purposes in the design and documentation of post-closure performance assessments in a regulatory setting. First, scenario development ensures a sufficiently comprehensive consideration of the possible future states of the system. Second, scenario development identifies the important scenarios that must be considered in quantitative analyses of the total system performance assessment (TSPA). Section 2.0 of this report describes the scenario development process. Steps in the process are described in Section 2.1, and terms introduced in this section are defined in Section 2.2. The electronic database used to document the process is described in Section 3, and Section 4 provides a summary of the current status of the YMP scenario development work. Section 5 contains acknowledgments, and Section 6 contains a list of the references cited.

  15. DGEMP-OE (2008) Energy Baseline Scenario. Synthesis report; Scenario energetique de reference DGEMP-OE(2008). Rapport de synthese

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2008-07-01

    A 'Business as usual' or 'Baseline' scenario of energy trends to 2020-2030 is produced by France every four years, as requested by the International Energy Agency in order to update the global scenarios published in its World Energy Outlook. Since the most recent scenario of this type was drawn up in 2003-2004, the time has come to renew the effort for the IEA's next in-depth review of French energy policy. Specifically, the DGEMP seeks to predict the future of France's energy situation assuming that no policies or new measures are taken affecting (i.e. improving or deteriorating) the situation other than those already in place or adopted as of 1 January 2008 (in other words, before measures such as those stemming from the Grenelle Environment Forum). On the other hand, it is assumed that change in the energy system is guided by 'conventional wisdom' according to which political options and behaviours by economic units are expected to be 'reasonable'. As a result, even should its projections prove inappropriate, this cannot be considered a 'worst-case' scenario. Indeed, beyond the IEA, this scenario can be used to establish an MEA (Multilateral Environment Agreement) scenario (based on existing measures) for national communications submitted under the U.N. Climate Convention. The scenarios by the 'Energy' Commission, part of the Centre d'Analyse Strategique (CAS), could have been used, particularly since the consultant who worked with the CAS to develop its scenarios was also commissioned by the DGEMP. However, several considerations argued in favour of proceeding separately: - The CAS scenarios drew on the DGEMP's 2004 baseline scenario, even though certain parameters were updated (in particular energy prices). - Moreover, the concept underpinning the DGEMP baseline scenario is that it should to every extent possible remain constant over time to secure continued consensus on this 'reference

  16. DGEMP-OE (2008) Energy Baseline Scenario. Synthesis report; Scenario energetique de reference DGEMP-OE(2008). Rapport de synthese

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2008-07-01

    A 'Business as usual' or 'Baseline' scenario of energy trends to 2020-2030 is produced by France every four years, as requested by the International Energy Agency in order to update the global scenarios published in its World Energy Outlook. Since the most recent scenario of this type was drawn up in 2003-2004, the time has come to renew the effort for the IEA's next in-depth review of French energy policy. Specifically, the DGEMP seeks to predict the future of France's energy situation assuming that no policies or new measures are taken affecting (i.e. improving or deteriorating) the situation other than those already in place or adopted as of 1 January 2008 (in other words, before measures such as those stemming from the Grenelle Environment Forum). On the other hand, it is assumed that change in the energy system is guided by 'conventional wisdom' according to which political options and behaviours by economic units are expected to be 'reasonable'. As a result, even should its projections prove inappropriate, this cannot be considered a 'worst-case' scenario. Indeed, beyond the IEA, this scenario can be used to establish an MEA (Multilateral Environment Agreement) scenario (based on existing measures) for national communications submitted under the U.N. Climate Convention. The scenarios by the 'Energy' Commission, part of the Centre d'Analyse Strategique (CAS), could have been used, particularly since the consultant who worked with the CAS to develop its scenarios was also commissioned by the DGEMP. However, several considerations argued in favour of proceeding separately: - The CAS scenarios drew on the DGEMP's 2004 baseline scenario, even though certain parameters were updated (in particular energy prices). - Moreover, the concept underpinning the DGEMP baseline scenario is that it should to every extent possible remain constant over time to secure continued consensus on this 'reference

  17. Improving risk assessment by defining consistent and reliable system scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Mazzorana

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available During the entire procedure of risk assessment for hydrologic hazards, the selection of consistent and reliable scenarios, constructed in a strictly systematic way, is fundamental for the quality and reproducibility of the results. However, subjective assumptions on relevant impact variables such as sediment transport intensity on the system loading side and weak point response mechanisms repeatedly cause biases in the results, and consequently affect transparency and required quality standards. Furthermore, the system response of mitigation measures to extreme event loadings represents another key variable in hazard assessment, as well as the integral risk management including intervention planning. Formative Scenario Analysis, as a supplement to conventional risk assessment methods, is a technique to construct well-defined sets of assumptions to gain insight into a specific case and the potential system behaviour. By two case studies, carried out (1 to analyse sediment transport dynamics in a torrent section equipped with control measures, and (2 to identify hazards induced by woody debris transport at hydraulic weak points, the applicability of the Formative Scenario Analysis technique is presented. It is argued that during scenario planning in general and with respect to integral risk management in particular, Formative Scenario Analysis allows for the development of reliable and reproducible scenarios in order to design more specifically an application framework for the sustainable assessment of natural hazards impact. The overall aim is to optimise the hazard mapping and zoning procedure by methodologically integrating quantitative and qualitative knowledge.

  18. Methods for Developing Emissions Scenarios for Integrated Assessment Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Prinn, Ronald [MIT; Webster, Mort [MIT

    2007-08-20

    The overall objective of this research was to contribute data and methods to support the future development of new emissions scenarios for integrated assessment of climate change. Specifically, this research had two main objectives: 1. Use historical data on economic growth and energy efficiency changes, and develop probability density functions (PDFs) for the appropriate parameters for two or three commonly used integrated assessment models. 2. Using the parameter distributions developed through the first task and previous work, we will develop methods of designing multi-gas emission scenarios that usefully span the joint uncertainty space in a small number of scenarios. Results on the autonomous energy efficiency improvement (AEEI) parameter are summarized, an uncertainty analysis of elasticities of substitution is described, and the probabilistic emissions scenario approach is presented.

  19. Socio-economic Scenarios in Climate Assessments (IC11). Synthesis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Van Drunen, M.; Berkhout, F.

    2011-09-15

    It is widely recognised that projections of social and economic futures are circumscribed by irreducible uncertainties and ignorance. A common analytical response is to develop scenarios that map a range of alternative possible outcomes. The application of scenarios in climate assessments in the Netherlands was investigated in this report, focusing on the use of the socio-economic scenarios 'Welvaart en Leefomgeving' (WLO - The Future of the Dutch Built Environment). This research was carried out within the Climate Changes Spatial Planning (CcSP) programme. WLO scenarios have been applied in climate assessment studies. WLO generates figures and data that are useful. Nevertheless we encountered several CcSP projects that did not apply any socio-economic scenarios, whilst this seemed necessary based on their objectives. In general, climate assessments make little sense if socio-economic developments are not taken into account. Interestingly, some of the studies that did apply socio-economic scenarios, picked only one or two of the scenarios generated by WLO. From a theoretical point of view this selective 'shopping' may lead to a tunnel vision, because it is impossible to estimate which scenario is more probable than the others. At the other hand it is often impractical to explore all four scenarios. The time horizon of WLO was in several cases too short for climate assessments. As it is probable that the structure of society has changed significantly by 2040, it is difficult to quantitatively support the storylines as was done in WLO, because many model assumptions are not correct anymore. Possibly it is better to take a backcasting approach for the second half of the century for the purpose of the CcSP programme. The two case studies described in this report provide examples of good practice that are likely to be useful in future projects that deal with scenarios. In addition, this study produced an interactive website (www

  20. Assessing global fossil fuel availability in a scenario framework

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bauer, Nico; Hilaire, Jerome; Brecha, Robert J.; Edmonds, James A.; Jiang, Kejun; Kriegler, Elmar; Rogner, Hans-Holger; Sferra, Fabio

    2016-06-01

    This study assesses global, long-term economic availability of coal, oil and gas within the Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP) scenario framework considering alternative assumptions as to highly uncertain future developments of technology, policy and the economy. Diverse sets of trajectories are formulated varying the challenges to mitigation and adaptation of climate change. The potential CO2 emissions from fossil fuels make it a crucial element subject to deep uncertainties. The analysis is based on a well-established data set of cost-quantity combinations that assumes favorable techno-economic developments, but ignores additional constraints on the extraction sector. This study significantly extends that analysis to include alternative assumptions for the fossil fuel sector consistent with the SSP scenario families and applies these filters to the original data set, thus resulting in alternative cumulative fossil fuel availability curves. In a Middle-of-the-Road scenario, low cost fossil fuels embody carbon consistent with a RCP6.0 emission profile, if all the CO2 were emitted freely during the 21st century. In scenarios with high challenges to mitigation, the assumed embodied carbon in low-cost fossil fuels can trigger a RCP8.5 scenario; low mitigation challenges scenarios are still consistent with a RCP4.5 scenario.

  1. Scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pérez-Soba, Marta; Maas, Rob

    2015-01-01

    We cannot predict the future with certainty, but we know that it is influenced by our current actions, and that these in turn are influenced by our expectations. This is why future scenarios have existed from the dawn of civilization and have been used for developing military, political and economic

  2. Scenario

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vidal, Rene Victor Valqui

    1996-01-01

    The main purpose of this paper is to give a synthetic presentation of hte well-known scenario method. Different schools and traditions will be shortly presented. In addition guidelines for hte use of this method will be discussed. Finally, applications will also be outlined as well as some critic...

  3. Identification of objective representative scenarios for hazard assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sandri, Laura; Selva, Jacopo; Costa, Antonio

    2016-04-01

    Assessment of volcanic hazards is typically based on one or a few representative eruptive scenarios, meant as specific combinations of a representative eruptive size, intensity, and vent position, selected with subjective criteria neglecting the full intrinsic natural variability characterizing volcanic processes. In common practice, the size and intensity of such scenarios are taken as representative of wider ranges, here termed "size classes". The approach implicitly or explicitly assumes that the inter-size class variability (among different eruptive size classes) is predominant with respect to the intra-size class variability (i.e., the variability inside each range represented by an eruptive size and intensity), the latter assumed as negligible. So far, no quantitative study has been carried out to verify such an assumption. Here, we first adopt a novel statistical strategy, that accounts for the full natural variability, to quantify the Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Assessment for tephra fallout in the Campania area. Secondly, we compare the results of the new method with those based on few representative scenarios only. On one hand, such comparison allows for determining when the simplified approach is valid, and quantifying the bias introduced in hazard assessment when the full variability is not accounted for. On the other hand, this novel approach opens the way to an objective a posteriori identification of a limited number of representative scenarios, which are necessary when there is no possibility to explore the full variability, as for example for rapid hazard assessment during emergencies, or for short-term hazard assessment.

  4. Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joao M. Goncalves

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Personal information is increasingly gathered and used for providing services tailored to user preferences, but the datasets used to provide such functionality can represent serious privacy threats if not appropriately protected. Work in privacy-preserving data publishing targeted privacy guarantees that protect against record re-identification, by making records indistinguishable, or sensitive attribute value disclosure, by introducing diversity or noise in the sensitive values. However, most approaches fail in the high-dimensional case, and the ones that don't introduce a utility cost incompatible with tailored recommendation scenarios. This paper aims at a sensible trade-off between privacy and the benefits of tailored recommendations, in the context of privacy-preserving data publishing. We empirically demonstrate that significant privacy improvements can be achieved at a utility cost compatible with tailored recommendation scenarios, using a simple partition-based sanitization method.

  5. Beyond eruptive scenarios: assessing tephra fallout hazard from Neapolitan volcanoes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sandri, Laura; Costa, Antonio; Selva, Jacopo; Tonini, Roberto; Macedonio, Giovanni; Folch, Arnau; Sulpizio, Roberto

    2016-01-01

    Assessment of volcanic hazards is necessary for risk mitigation. Typically, hazard assessment is based on one or a few, subjectively chosen representative eruptive scenarios, which use a specific combination of eruptive sizes and intensities to represent a particular size class of eruption. While such eruptive scenarios use a range of representative members to capture a range of eruptive sizes and intensities in order to reflect a wider size class, a scenario approach neglects to account for the intrinsic variability of volcanic eruptions, and implicitly assumes that inter-class size variability (i.e. size difference between different eruptive size classes) dominates over intra-class size variability (i.e. size difference within an eruptive size class), the latter of which is treated as negligible. So far, no quantitative study has been undertaken to verify such an assumption. Here, we adopt a novel Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Analysis (PVHA) strategy, which accounts for intrinsic eruptive variabilities, to quantify the tephra fallout hazard in the Campania area. We compare the results of the new probabilistic approach with the classical scenario approach. The results allow for determining whether a simplified scenario approach can be considered valid, and for quantifying the bias which arises when full variability is not accounted for.

  6. Beyond eruptive scenarios: assessing tephra fallout hazard from Neapolitan volcanoes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sandri, Laura; Costa, Antonio; Selva, Jacopo; Tonini, Roberto; Macedonio, Giovanni; Folch, Arnau; Sulpizio, Roberto

    2016-04-01

    Assessment of volcanic hazards is necessary for risk mitigation. Typically, hazard assessment is based on one or a few, subjectively chosen representative eruptive scenarios, which use a specific combination of eruptive sizes and intensities to represent a particular size class of eruption. While such eruptive scenarios use a range of representative members to capture a range of eruptive sizes and intensities in order to reflect a wider size class, a scenario approach neglects to account for the intrinsic variability of volcanic eruptions, and implicitly assumes that inter-class size variability (i.e. size difference between different eruptive size classes) dominates over intra-class size variability (i.e. size difference within an eruptive size class), the latter of which is treated as negligible. So far, no quantitative study has been undertaken to verify such an assumption. Here, we adopt a novel Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Analysis (PVHA) strategy, which accounts for intrinsic eruptive variabilities, to quantify the tephra fallout hazard in the Campania area. We compare the results of the new probabilistic approach with the classical scenario approach. The results allow for determining whether a simplified scenario approach can be considered valid, and for quantifying the bias which arises when full variability is not accounted for.

  7. Assessment of disruptive scenarios of a Canadian used fuel repository in crystalline rock

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gobien, M.; Garisto, F.; Hunt, N.; Kremer, E.P. [Nuclear Waste Management Organization (NWMO), Toronto, Ontario (Canada)

    2015-06-15

    The NWMO has recently extended its modelling capabilities by performing simulations for four disruptive scenarios that, to date, have not yet been examined in detail. These scenarios complement those considered in an existing postclosure safety assessment for a conceptual geological repository located in a hypothetical crystalline rock formation. The four new disruptive scenarios are: Shaft Seal Failure, Undetected Fault, Open or Poorly Sealed Borehole and Open Borehole Due to Inadvertent Human Intrusion. All simulations are based on the FRAC3DVS-OPG Site-Scale Model. The Site-Scale Model includes a simplified representation of the full repository and a portion of the surrounding sub-regional flow system. All transport simulations are performed with only the radionuclide I-129. Transport rates to the surface and a domestic water supply well are compared to the Reference Case results from an earlier case study documented in Reference. (author)

  8. Scenario drafting to anticipate future developments in technology assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Retèl Valesca P

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Health Technology Assessment (HTA information, and in particular cost-effectiveness data is needed to guide decisions, preferably already in early stages of technological development. However, at that moment there is usually a high degree of uncertainty, because evidence is limited and different development paths are still possible. We developed a multi-parameter framework to assess dynamic aspects of a technology -still in development-, by means of scenario drafting to determine the effects, costs and cost-effectiveness of possible future diffusion patterns. Secondly, we explored the value of this method on the case of the clinical implementation of the 70-gene signature for breast cancer, a gene expression profile for selecting patients who will benefit most from chemotherapy. Methods To incorporate process-uncertainty, ten possible scenarios regarding the introduction of the 70-gene signature were drafted with European experts. Out of 5 most likely scenarios, 3 drivers of diffusion (non-compliance, technical failure, and uptake were quantitatively integrated in a decision-analytical model. For these scenarios, the cost-effectiveness of the 70-gene signature expressed in Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratios (ICERs was compared to clinical guidelines, calculated from the past (2005 until the future (2020. Results In 2005 the ICER was €1,9 million/quality-adjusted-life-year (QALY, meaning that the 70-gene signature was not yet cost-effective compared to the current clinical guideline. The ICER for the 70-gene signature improved over time with a range of €1,9 million to €26,145 in 2010 and €1,9 million to €11,123/QALY in 2020 depending on the separate scenario used. From 2010, the 70-gene signature should be cost-effective, based on the combined scenario. The uptake-scenario had strongest influence on the cost-effectiveness. Conclusions When optimal diffusion of a technology is sought, incorporating process

  9. Environmental Assessment of Possible Future Waste Management Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yevgeniya Arushanyan

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Waste management has developed in many countries and will continue to do so. Changes towards increased recovery of resources in order to meet climate targets and for society to transition to a circular economy are important driving forces. Scenarios are important tools for planning and assessing possible future developments and policies. This paper presents a comprehensive life cycle assessment (LCA model for environmental assessments of scenarios and waste management policy instruments. It is unique by including almost all waste flows in a country and also allow for including waste prevention. The results show that the environmental impacts from future waste management scenarios in Sweden can differ a lot. Waste management will continue to contribute with environmental benefits, but less so in the more sustainable future scenarios, since the surrounding energy and transportation systems will be less polluting and also because less waste will be produced. Valuation results indicate that climate change, human toxicity and resource depletion are the most important environmental impact categories for the Swedish waste management system. Emissions of fossil CO2 from waste incineration will continue to be a major source of environmental impacts in these scenarios. The model is used for analyzing environmental impacts of several policy instruments including weight based collection fee, incineration tax, a resource tax and inclusion of waste in a green electricity certification system. The effect of the studied policy instruments in isolation are in most cases limited, suggesting that stronger policy instruments as well as combinations are necessary to reach policy goals as set out in for example the EU action plan on circular economy.

  10. Reference scenarios for deforestation and forest degradation in support of REDD: a review of data and methods

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Olander, Lydia P; Murray, Brian C [Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions, Duke University (United States); Gibbs, Holly K [Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment (SAGE) Institute for Environmental Studies, University of Wisconsin-Madison (United States); Steininger, Marc [Center for Applied Biodiversity Science, Conservation International (United States); Swenson, Jennifer J [Nicholas School for the Environment and Earth Sciences, Duke University (United States)

    2008-04-15

    Global climate policy initiatives are now being proposed to compensate tropical forest nations for reducing carbon emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD). These proposals have the potential to include developing countries more actively in international greenhouse gas mitigation and to address a substantial share of the world's emissions which come from tropical deforestation. For such a policy to be viable it must have a credible benchmark against which emissions reduction can be calculated. This benchmark, sometimes termed a baseline or reference emissions scenario, can be based directly on historical emissions or can use historical emissions as input for business as usual projections. Here, we review existing data and methods that could be used to measure historical deforestation and forest degradation reference scenarios including FAO (Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations) national statistics and various remote sensing sources. The freely available and corrected global Landsat imagery for 1990, 2000 and soon to come for 2005 may be the best primary data source for most developing countries with other coarser resolution high frequency or radar data as a valuable complement for addressing problems with cloud cover and for distinguishing larger scale degradation. While sampling of imagery has been effectively useful for pan-tropical and continental estimates of deforestation, wall-to-wall (or full coverage) allows more detailed assessments for measuring national-level reference emissions. It is possible to measure historical deforestation with sufficient certainty for determining reference emissions, but there must be continued calls at the international level for making high-resolution imagery available, and for financial and technical assistance to help countries determine credible reference scenarios. The data available for past years may not be sufficient for assessing all forms of forest degradation, but new data

  11. Human health impacts for renewable energy scenarios from the EnerGEO Platform of Integrated Assessment (PIA)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lefevre, Mireille; Gschwind, Benoit; Blanc, Isabelle; Ranchin, Thierry [MINES ParisTech, Sophia Antipolis (France). Observation, Impacts, Energy Center; Wyrwa, Artur; Drebszok, Kamila [AGH Univ. of Science and Technology, Krakow (Poland); Cofala, Janusz; Fuss, Sabine [International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg (Austria)

    2013-07-01

    This article reports impact results from running the EnerGEO Platform of Integrated Assessment (PIA) related to human health for different scenarios in Europe. The scenarios were prepared within the EnerGEO project. The idea of this European project is to determine how low carbon scenarios, and in particular scenarios with a high share of renewable energy, affect concentrations of air pollutants and as a consequence affect human health. PM{sub 2.5} concentrations were estimated with the IIASA Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) model on a time horizon up to the year 2050 for different scenarios. We analyse here the estimation of the Loss of Life Expectancy due to PM{sub 2.5} concentrations for the Baseline scenario taken as a reference and the Maximum renewable power scenario. (orig.)

  12. Expert assessment concludes negative emissions scenarios may not deliver

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vaughan, Naomi E.; Gough, Clair

    2016-09-01

    Many integrated assessment models (IAMs) rely on the availability and extensive use of biomass energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) to deliver emissions scenarios consistent with limiting climate change to below 2 °C average temperature rise. BECCS has the potential to remove carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere, delivering ‘negative emissions’. The deployment of BECCS at the scale assumed in IAM scenarios is highly uncertain: biomass energy is commonly used but not at such a scale, and CCS technologies have been demonstrated but not commercially established. Here we present the results of an expert elicitation process that explores the explicit and implicit assumptions underpinning the feasibility of BECCS in IAM scenarios. Our results show that the assumptions are considered realistic regarding technical aspects of CCS but unrealistic regarding the extent of bioenergy deployment, and development of adequate societal support and governance structures for BECCS. The results highlight concerns about the assumed magnitude of carbon dioxide removal achieved across a full BECCS supply chain, with the greatest uncertainty in bioenergy production. Unrealistically optimistic assumptions regarding the future availability of BECCS in IAM scenarios could lead to the overshoot of critical warming limits and have significant impacts on near-term mitigation options.

  13. Developing consistent scenarios to assess flood hazards in mountain streams.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mazzorana, B; Comiti, F; Scherer, C; Fuchs, S

    2012-02-01

    The characterizing feature of extreme events in steep mountain streams is the multiplicity of possible tipping process patterns such as those involving sudden morphological changes due to intense local erosion, aggradation as well as clogging of critical flow sections due to wood accumulations. Resolving a substantial part of the uncertainties underlying these hydrological cause-effect chains is a major challenge for flood risk management. Our contribution is from a methodological perspective based on an expert-based methodology to unfold natural hazard process scenarios in mountain streams to retrace their probabilistic structure. As a first step we set up a convenient system representation for natural hazard process routing. In this setting, as a second step, we proceed deriving the possible and thus consistent natural hazard process patterns by means of Formative Scenario Analysis. In a last step, hazard assessment is refined by providing, through expert elicitation, the spatial probabilistic structure of individual scenario trajectories. As complement to the theory the applicability of the method is shown through embedded examples. To conclude we discuss the major advantages of the presented methodological approach for hazard assessment compared to traditional approaches, and with respect to the risk governance process.

  14. Assessing clustering results with reference taxonomies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valiente, Gabriel

    2006-01-01

    The comparative analysis of phylogenies obtained using different phylogenetic methods or different gene sequences for a given set of species, is usually done by computing some quantitative measure of similarity between the phylogenetic trees. Such a quantitative approach provides little insight into the actual similarities and differences between the alternative phylogenies. In this paper, we present a method for the qualitative assessment of a phylogenetic tree against a reference taxonomy, based on highlighting their common clusters. Our algorithms build a reference taxonomy for the taxa present in a given phylogenetic tree and produce a dendogram for the input phylogenetic tree, with branches in those clusters common to the reference taxonomy highlighted. Our implementation of the algorithms produces publication-quality graphics. For unrooted phylogenies, the method produces a radial cladogram for the input phylogenetic tree, with branches in common clusters to the reference taxonomy highlighted.

  15. Asian water futures - Multi scenarios, models and criteria assessment -

    Science.gov (United States)

    Satoh, Yusuke; Burek, Peter; Wada, Yoshihide; Flrörke, Martina; Eisner, Stephanie; Hanasaki, Naota; Kahil, Taher; Tramberend, Sylvia; Fischer, Günther; Wiberg, David

    2016-04-01

    A better understanding of the current and future availability of water resources is essential for the implementation of the recently agreed Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Long-term/efficient strategies for coping with current and potential future water-related challenges are urgently required. Although Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) were develop for the impact assessment of climate change, very few assessments have yet used the SSPs to assess water resources. Then the IIASA Water Futures and Solutions Initiative (WFaS), developed a set of water use scenarios consistent with RCPs and SSPs and applying the latest climate changes scenarios. Here this study focuses on results for Asian countries for the period 2010-2050. We present three conceivable future pathways of Asian water resources, determined by feasible combinations of two RCPs and three SSPs. Such a scenario approach provides valuable insights towards identifying appropriate strategies as gaps between a "scenario world" and reality. In addition, for the assessment of future water resources a multi-criteria analysis is applied. A classification system for countries and watershed that consists of two broad dimensions: (i) economic and institutional adaptive capacity, (ii) hydrological complexity. The latter is composed of several sub-indexes including total renewable water resources per capita, the ratio of water demand to renewable water resource, variability of runoff and dependency ratio to external. Furthermore, this analysis uses a multi-model approach to estimate runoff and discharge using 5 GCMs and 5 global hydrological models (GHMs). Three of these GHMs calculate water use based on a consistent set of scenarios in addition to water availability. As a result, we have projected hot spots of water scarcity in Asia and their spatial and temporal change. For example, in a scenario based on SSP2 and RCP6.0, by 2050, in total 2.1 billion people

  16. Process Risk Assessment using Dynamic Simulation of Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Markert, Frank; Kozin, Igor; Duijm, Nijs Jan

    2016-01-01

    Process plants may be very complex and may combine various processes in close proximity. Hence, the response to accidents may easily grow complex. Traditionally, after gathering and getting acquainted with the plant's technical information, risk is analysed in prescribed steps starting with hazard...... assignments applying simplified engineering models with averaged/expected values as input to account for the characteristics of the system, e.g. describing the physical and environmental phenomena and workers responses. The size of the release and dispersion depends on technical and environmental parameters...... (DES) of the scenarios, which is a Monte Carlo type method. The paper describes the application of DES to conduct the analysis part of a risk assessment that enables better time resolution in the modelling of the specific scenarios, simulate the interactions between concurrent chains of events under...

  17. Scenario simulation based assessment of subsurface energy storage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beyer, C.; Bauer, S.; Dahmke, A.

    2014-12-01

    Energy production from renewable sources such as solar or wind power is characterized by temporally varying power supply. The politically intended transition towards renewable energies in Germany („Energiewende") hence requires the installation of energy storage technologies to compensate for the fluctuating production. In this context, subsurface energy storage represents a viable option due to large potential storage capacities and the wide prevalence of suited geological formations. Technologies for subsurface energy storage comprise cavern or deep porous media storage of synthetic hydrogen or methane from electrolysis and methanization, or compressed air, as well as heat storage in shallow or moderately deep porous formations. Pressure build-up, fluid displacement or temperature changes induced by such operations may affect local and regional groundwater flow, geomechanical behavior, groundwater geochemistry and microbiology. Moreover, subsurface energy storage may interact and possibly be in conflict with other "uses" like drinking water abstraction or ecological goods and functions. An utilization of the subsurface for energy storage therefore requires an adequate system and process understanding for the evaluation and assessment of possible impacts of specific storage operations on other types of subsurface use, the affected environment and protected entities. This contribution presents the framework of the ANGUS+ project, in which tools and methods are developed for these types of assessments. Synthetic but still realistic scenarios of geological energy storage are derived and parameterized for representative North German storage sites by data acquisition and evaluation, and experimental work. Coupled numerical hydraulic, thermal, mechanical and reactive transport (THMC) simulation tools are developed and applied to simulate the energy storage and subsurface usage scenarios, which are analyzed for an assessment and generalization of the imposed THMC

  18. Developing Shipping Emissions Assessments, Inventories and Scenarios (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corbett, J. J.

    2010-12-01

    Inventories of shipping have been important contributions to scientific understanding of regional pollution and transboundary transport. These inventories have also been used to evaluate global scale environmental and climate effects and trends. However, these inventories also inform policy making decisions and this role is increasingly occurring within the timescale of scientific assessment. Shipping exhibits a growth trend for uncontrolled pollutants that is highly coupled to economic activity, and historically increasing faster than many other anthropogenic sources on a global and regional scale. Shipping emissions are being regulated asymmetrically in various dimensions. Some pollutants are being controlled more than others, some regions are subject to stricter controls, and correlated changes in operations are affecting unregulated pollutant emissions. Shipping inventories require more than current assessments, including historic and future scenarios. Generally conceived as sets of business-as-usual (BAU) and high-growth scenarios, ship inventories now also need regulatory control pathways and maximum feasible reduction (MFR) scenarios. In this context, shipping inventories also present other challenges to both scientists and policymakers. Systemic bias can occur in non-shipping assessments when emissions along well-traveled shipping lanes are ignored by far offshore scientific studies, even some campaigns that control very carefully the potential influence of the shipping platforms for their measurements. Examples where shipping may contribute understood and potential biases include: a. Health impacts from transboundary pollution b. Ozone trends over the Pacific c. Sulfur emissions from biogenic sources in Northern hemisphere d. Acidification of coastal waters (potential) e. Arctic impacts on snow and ice Other challenges exist. The fuels and technology used by ships are unique from other transportation, from other stationary sources - and these are changing

  19. Ash fallout scenarios at Vesuvius: Numerical simulations and implications for hazard assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macedonio, G.; Costa, A.; Folch, A.

    2008-12-01

    Volcanic ash fallout subsequent to a possible renewal of the Vesuvius activity represents a serious threat to the highly urbanized area around the volcano. In order to assess the relative hazard we consider three different possible scenarios such as those following Plinian, Sub-Plinian, and violent Strombolian eruptions. Reference eruptions for each scenario are similar to the 79 AD (Pompeii), the 1631 AD (or 472 AD) and the 1944 AD Vesuvius events, respectively. Fallout deposits for the first two scenarios are modeled using HAZMAP, a model based on a semi-analytical solution of the 2D advection-diffusion-sedimentation equation. In contrast, fallout following a violent Strombolian event is modeled by means of FALL3D, a numerical model based on the solution of the full 3D advection-diffusion-sedimentation equation which is valid also within the atmospheric boundary layer. Inputs for models are total erupted mass, eruption column height, bulk grain-size, bulk component distribution, and a statistical set of wind profiles obtained by the NCEP/NCAR re-analysis. We computed ground load probability maps for different ash loadings. In the case of a Sub-Plinian scenario, the most representative tephra loading maps in 16 cardinal directions were also calculated. The probability maps obtained for the different scenarios are aimed to give support to the risk mitigation strategies.

  20. Nuclear spent fuel management scenarios. Status and assessment report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dufek, J.; Arzhanov, V.; Gudowski, W. [Royal Inst. of Technology, Stockholm (Sweden). Dept. of Nuclear and Reactor Physics

    2006-06-15

    The strategy for management of spent nuclear fuel from the Swedish nuclear power programme is interim storage for cooling and decay for about 30 years followed by direct disposal of the fuel in a geologic repository. In various contexts it is of interest to compare this strategy with other strategies that might be available in the future as a result of ongoing research and development. In particular partitioning and transmutation is one such strategy that is subject to considerable R and D-efforts within the European Union and in other countries with large nuclear programmes. To facilitate such comparisons for the Swedish situation, with a planned phase out of the nuclear power programme, SKB has asked the team at Royal Inst. of Technology to describe and explore some scenarios that might be applied to the Swedish programme. The results of this study are presented in this report. The following scenarios were studied by the help of a specially developed computer programme: Phase out by 2025 with direct disposal. Burning plutonium and minor actinides as MOX in BWR. Burning plutonium and minor actinides as MOX in PWR. Burning plutonium and minor actinides in ADS. Combined LWR-MOX plus ADS. For the different scenarios nuclide inventories, waste amounts, costs, additional electricity production etc have been assessed. As a general conclusion it was found that BWR is more efficient for burning plutonium in MOX fuel than PWR. The difference is approximately 10%. Furthermore the BWR produces about 10% less americium inventory. An ADS reactor park can theoretically in an ideal case burn (transmute) 99% of the transuranium isotopes. The duration of such a scenario heavily depends on the interim time needed for cooling the spent fuel before reprocessing. Assuming 10 years for cooling of nuclear fuel from ADS, the duration will be at least 200 years under optimistic technical assumptions. The development and use of advanced pyro-processing with an interim cooling time of only

  1. Human scenarios for the screening assessment. Columbia River Comprehensive Impact Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Napier, B.A.; Harper, B.L.; Lane, N.K.; Strenge, D.L.; Spivey, R.B.

    1996-03-01

    Because of past nuclear production operations along the Columbia River, there is intense public and tribal interest in assessing any residual Hanford Site related contamination along the river from the Hanford Reach to the Pacific Ocean. The Columbia River Impact Assessment (CRCIA) was proposed to address these concerns. The assessment of the Columbia River is being conducted in phases. The initial phase is a screening assessment of risk, which addresses current environmental conditions for a range of potential uses. One component of the screening assessment estimates the risk from contaminants in the Columbia River to humans. Because humans affected by the Columbia river are involved in a wide range of activities, various scenarios have been developed on which to base the risk assessments. The scenarios illustrate the range of activities possible by members of the public coming in contact with the Columbia River so that the impact of contaminants in the river on human health can be assessed. Each scenario illustrates particular activity patterns by a specific group. Risk will be assessed at the screening level for each scenario. This report defines the scenarios and the exposure factors that will be the basis for estimating the potential range of risk to human health from Hanford-derived radioactive as well as non-radioactive contaminants associated with the Columbia River.

  2. Assessing the Feasibility of Global Long-Term Mitigation Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ajay Gambhir

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This study explores the critical notion of how feasible it is to achieve long-term mitigation goals to limit global temperature change. It uses a model inter-comparison of three integrated assessment models (TIAM-Grantham, MESSAGE-GLOBIOM and WITCH harmonized for socio-economic growth drivers using one of the new shared socio-economic pathways (SSP2, to analyse multiple mitigation scenarios aimed at different temperature changes in 2100, in order to assess the model outputs against a range of indicators developed so as to systematically compare the feasibility across scenarios. These indicators include mitigation costs and carbon prices, rates of emissions reductions and energy efficiency improvements, rates of deployment of key low-carbon technologies, reliance on negative emissions, and stranding of power generation assets. The results highlight how much more challenging the 2 °C goal is, when compared to the 2.5–4 °C goals, across virtually all measures of feasibility. Any delay in mitigation or limitation in technology options also renders the 2 °C goal much less feasible across the economic and technical dimensions explored. Finally, a sensitivity analysis indicates that aiming for less than 2 °C is even less plausible, with significantly higher mitigation costs and faster carbon price increases, significantly faster decarbonization and zero-carbon technology deployment rates, earlier occurrence of very significant carbon capture and earlier onset of global net negative emissions. Such a systematic analysis allows a more in-depth consideration of what realistic level of long-term temperature changes can be achieved and what adaptation strategies are therefore required.

  3. On Improving the Reliability of Distribution Networks Based on Investment Scenarios Using Reference Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kawahara, Koji

    Distribution systems are inherent monopolies and therefore these have generally been regulated in order to protect customers and to ensure cost-effective operation. In the UK this is one of the functions of OFGEM (Office of Gas and Electricity Markets). Initially the regulation was based on the value of assets but there is a trend nowadays towards performance-based regulation. In order to achieve this, a methodology is needed that enables the reliability performance associated with alternative investment strategies to be compared with the investment cost of these strategies. At present there is no accepted approach for such assessments. Building on the concept of reference networks proposed in Refs. (1), (2), this paper describes how these networks can be used to assess the impact that performance driven investment strategies will have on the improvement in reliability indices. The method has been tested using the underground and overhead part of a real system.

  4. Alternative future scenarios for the SPS comparative assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ayres, R.U.; Ridker, R.G.; Watson, W.D. Jr.; Arnold, J.; Tayi, G.

    1980-08-01

    The objective of the comparative assessment is to develop an initial understanding of the SPS with respect to a limited set of energy alternatives. A comparative methodology report describes the multi-step process in the comparative assessment. The first step is the selection and characterization of alternative energy systems. Terrestrial alternatives are selected, and their cost, performance, and environmental and social attributes are specified for use in the comparison with the SPS in the post-2000 era. Data on alternative technologies were sought from previous research and from other comparisons. The object of this study is to provide a futures framework for evaluating SPS (i.e., factor prices, primary energy prices, and energy demands for the US from 1980 to 2030). The economic/energy interactions are discussed, and a number of specific modelling schemes that have been used for long-range forecasting purposes are described. This discussion provides the rationale for the choice of a specific model and methodology, which is described. Long-range cost assumptions used in the forecast are detailed, and the basis for the selection of specific scenarios follows. Results of the analysis are detailed. (WHK)

  5. Representative Agricultural Pathways and Scenarios for Regional Integrated Assessment of Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability, and Adaptation. 5; Chapter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valdivia, Roberto O.; Antle, John M.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Ruane, Alexander C.; Vervoort, Joost; Ashfaq, Muhammad; Hathie, Ibrahima; Tui, Sabine Homann-Kee; Mulwa, Richard; Nhemachena, Charles; Ponnusamy, Paramasivam; Rasnayaka, Herath; Singh, Harbir

    2015-01-01

    The global change research community has recognized that new pathway and scenario concepts are needed to implement impact and vulnerability assessment where precise prediction is not possible, and also that these scenarios need to be logically consistent across local, regional, and global scales. For global climate models, representative concentration pathways (RCPs) have been developed that provide a range of time-series of atmospheric greenhouse-gas concentrations into the future. For impact and vulnerability assessment, new socio-economic pathway and scenario concepts have also been developed, with leadership from the Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC).This chapter presents concepts and methods for development of regional representative agricultural pathways (RAOs) and scenarios that can be used for agricultural model intercomparison, improvement, and impact assessment in a manner consistent with the new global pathways and scenarios. The development of agriculture-specific pathways and scenarios is motivated by the need for a protocol-based approach to climate impact, vulnerability, and adaptation assessment. Until now, the various global and regional models used for agricultural-impact assessment have been implemented with individualized scenarios using various data and model structures, often without transparent documentation, public availability, and consistency across disciplines. These practices have reduced the credibility of assessments, and also hampered the advancement of the science through model intercomparison, improvement, and synthesis of model results across studies. The recognition of the need for better coordination among the agricultural modeling community, including the development of standard reference scenarios with adequate agriculture-specific detail led to the creation of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) in 2010. The development of RAPs is one of the cross-cutting themes in AgMIP's work

  6. Scenario-based Storm Surge Vulnerability Assessment of Catanduanes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suarez, J. K. B.

    2015-12-01

    After the devastating storm surge effect of Typhoon Haiyan, the public recognized an improved communication about risks, vulnerabilities and what is threatened by storm surge. This can be provided by vulnerability maps which allow better visual presentations and understanding of the risks and vulnerabilities. Local implementers can direct the resources needed for protection of these areas. Moreover, vulnerability and hazard maps are relevant in all phases of disaster management designed by the National Disaster Risk Reduction Council (NDRRMC) - disaster preparedness, prevention and mitigation and response and recovery and rehabilitation. This paper aims to analyze the vulnerability of Catanduanes, a coastal province in the Philippines, to storm surges in terms of four parameters: population, built environment, natural environment and agricultural production. The vulnerability study relies on the storm surge inundation maps based on the Department of Science and Technology Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards' (DOST-Project NOAH) proposed four Storm Surge Advisory (SSA) scenarios (1-2, 3, 4, and 5 meters) for predicting storm surge heights. To determine total percent affected for each parameter elements, an overlay analysis was performed in ArcGIS Desktop. Moreover, vulnerability and hazard maps are generated as a final output and a tool for visualizing the impacts of storm surge event at different surge heights. The result of this study would help the selected province to know their present condition and adapt strategies to strengthen areas where they are found to be most vulnerable in order to prepare better for the future.

  7. ES2 neck injury assessment reference values for lateral loading in side facing seats

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Philippens, M.M.G.M.; Wismans, J.S.H.M.; Forbes, P.A.; Yoganandan, N.; Pintar, F.; Soltis, S.J.

    2009-01-01

    Injury assessment reference values (IARV) predicting neck injuries are currently not available for side facing seated aircraft passengers in crash conditions. The aircraft impact scenario results in inertial loading of the head and neck, a condition known to be inherently different from common autom

  8. A comparison between the example reference biosphere model ERB 2B and a process-based model: simulation of a natural release scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almahayni, T

    2014-12-01

    The BIOMASS methodology was developed with the objective of constructing defensible assessment biospheres for assessing potential radiological impacts of radioactive waste repositories. To this end, a set of Example Reference Biospheres were developed to demonstrate the use of the methodology and to provide an international point of reference. In this paper, the performance of the Example Reference Biosphere model ERB 2B associated with the natural release scenario, discharge of contaminated groundwater to the surface environment, was evaluated by comparing its long-term projections of radionuclide dynamics and distribution in a soil-plant system to those of a process-based, transient advection-dispersion model (AD). The models were parametrised with data characteristic of a typical rainfed winter wheat crop grown on a sandy loam soil under temperate climate conditions. Three safety-relevant radionuclides, (99)Tc, (129)I and (237)Np with different degree of sorption were selected for the study. Although the models were driven by the same hydraulic (soil moisture content and water fluxes) and radiological (Kds) input data, their projections were remarkably different. On one hand, both models were able to capture short and long-term variation in activity concentration in the subsoil compartment. On the other hand, the Reference Biosphere model did not project any radionuclide accumulation in the topsoil and crop compartments. This behaviour would underestimate the radiological exposure under natural release scenarios. The results highlight the potential role deep roots play in soil-to-plant transfer under a natural release scenario where radionuclides are released into the subsoil. When considering the relative activity and root depth profiles within the soil column, much of the radioactivity was taken up into the crop from the subsoil compartment. Further improvements were suggested to address the limitations of the Reference Biosphere model presented in this paper.

  9. Similar Reference Image Quality Assessment: A New Database and A Trial with Local Feature Matching

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Qingbo; Zhou, Wengang; Li, Houqiang

    2016-12-01

    Conventionally, the reference image for image quality assessment (IQA) is completely available (full-reference IQA) or unavailable (no-reference IQA). Even for reduced-reference IQA, the features that are used to predict image quality are still extracted from the pristine reference image. However, the pristine reference image is always unavailable in many real scenarios. In contrast, it is convenient to obtain a number of similar reference images via retrieval from the Internet. These similar reference images may share similar contents and scenes with the image to be assessed. In this paper, we attempt to discuss the image quality assessment problem from the view of similar images, i.e. similar reference IQA. Although the similar reference images share similar contents with the degraded image, the difference between them still cannot be ignored. Therefore, we propose an IQA framework based on local feature matching, which can help to identify the similar regions and structures. Then the IQA features are computed only from these similar regions to predict the final image quality score. Besides, since there is no IQA databases for the similar reference IQA problem, we establish a novel IQA database that consists of 272 images from four scenes. The experiments demonstrate that the performance of our scheme goes beyond state-of-the-art no-reference IQA methods and some full-reference IQA algorithms.

  10. Using scenarios to assess possible future impacts of invasive species in the Laurentian Great Lakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lauber, T. Bruce; Stedman, Richard C.; Connelly, Nancy A; Rudstam, Lars G.; Ready, Richard C; Poe, Gregory L; Bunnell, David; Hook, Tomas O.; Koops, Marten A.; Ludsin, Stuart A.; Rutherford, Edward S; Wittmann, Marion E.

    2016-01-01

    The expected impacts of invasive species are key considerations in selecting policy responses to potential invasions. But predicting the impacts of invasive species is daunting, particularly in large systems threatened by multiple invasive species, such as North America’s Laurentian Great Lakes. We developed and evaluated a scenario-building process that relied on an expert panel to assess possible future impacts of aquatic invasive species on recreational fishing in the Great Lakes. To maximize its usefulness to policy makers, this process was designed to be implemented relatively rapidly and consider a range of species. The expert panel developed plausible, internally-consistent invasion scenarios for 5 aquatic invasive species, along with subjective probabilities of those scenarios. We describe these scenarios and evaluate this approach for assessing future invasive species impacts. The panel held diverse opinions about the likelihood of the scenarios, and only one scenario with impacts on sportfish species was considered likely by most of the experts. These outcomes are consistent with the literature on scenario building, which advocates for developing a range of plausible scenarios in decision making because the uncertainty of future conditions makes the likelihood of any particular scenario low. We believe that this scenario-building approach could contribute to policy decisions about whether and how to address the possible impacts of invasive species. In this case, scenarios could allow policy makers to narrow the range of possible impacts on Great Lakes fisheries they consider and help set a research agenda for further refining invasive species predictions.

  11. Assessing Threat Detection Scenarios through Hypothesis Generation and Testing

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-12-01

    irrelevant details (M = .80, SD = .45 vs. M = .50, SD = .38), t(54) = 3.95, p < .001, d = .82. Computer-controlled stimuli presentation. The Psychology ...scenario. These analyses also yielded no differences (no t > 1.09, no p < .283). 16 Again, the cost structure imposed on Soldiers in these tasks...confidence-accuracy relationship and do so in the type of ill- structured decision environment we used. Traditional calibration studies utilize known

  12. Climate change mitigation: comparative assessment of Malaysian and ASEAN scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rasiah, Rajah; Ahmed, Adeel; Al-Amin, Abul Quasem; Chenayah, Santha

    2017-01-01

    This paper analyses empirically the optimal climate change mitigation policy of Malaysia with the business as usual scenario of ASEAN to compare their environmental and economic consequences over the period 2010-2110. A downscaling empirical dynamic model is constructed using a dual multidisciplinary framework combining economic, earth science, and ecological variables to analyse the long-run consequences. The model takes account of climatic variables, including carbon cycle, carbon emission, climatic damage, carbon control, carbon concentration, and temperature. The results indicate that without optimal climate policy and action, the cumulative cost of climate damage for Malaysia and ASEAN as a whole over the period 2010-2110 would be MYR40.1 trillion and MYR151.0 trillion, respectively. Under the optimal policy, the cumulative cost of climatic damage for Malaysia would fall to MYR5.3 trillion over the 100 years. Also, the additional economic output of Malaysia will rise from MYR2.1 billion in 2010 to MYR3.6 billion in 2050 and MYR5.5 billion in 2110 under the optimal climate change mitigation scenario. The additional economic output for ASEAN would fall from MYR8.1 billion in 2010 to MYR3.2 billion in 2050 before rising again slightly to MYR4.7 billion in 2110 in the business as usual ASEAN scenario.

  13. Risk assessment by convergence methodology in RDD scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Araujo, Olga Maria Oliveira de; Andrade, Edson Ramos de; Rebello, Wilson Freitas; Silva, Gabriel Fidalgo Queiroz da, E-mail: olgafisica2013@hotmail.com, E-mail: fisica.dna@gmail.com, E-mail: rebello@ime.eb.br, E-mail: profgabriel.fisica@gmail.com [Instituto Militar de Engenharia (IME), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Secao de Engenharia Nuclear

    2015-07-01

    An RDD event occurs by explosion and radioactive material dispersion where particles containing radioactive material can reach great distances from original point of the explosion and generating a plume of contamination. The use of a RDD is regarded as the most likely scenario involving radiological terrorist material. Accurate information on the population and the estimated dose are essential for analysis during the decision process. This work intends to present a proposal for a convergence of methodologies using the computer simulation codes Hotspot Health Physics 3.0 and the statistical model Radiation Effects Research Foundation (RERF) to calculate the approximate dose depending on the distance of the original point of the explosion of an RDD. From those data, the relative risk of developing tumors is estimated, as well as the probability of causation. At a later stage, the proposed combination of actions intended to help the decision-making and employment response personnel in emergency protection measures, such as sheltering and evacuation through the RESRAD-RDD software. The convergence of the proposed methodology can accelerate the process of acquiring information during the first hours of a radiological scenario and provide proper management of medical response and organization of the overall response. (author)

  14. Environmental assessment of low-organic waste landfill scenarios by means of life-cycle assessment modelling (EASEWASTE).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manfredi, Simone; Christensen, Thomas H; Scharff, Heijo; Jacobs, Joeri

    2010-02-01

    The environmental performance of two low-organic waste landfill scenarios ('low-organic-energy' and 'low-organic-flare') was developed and compared with two household waste landfill scenarios ('household-energy' and 'household-flare') by means of LCA-modelling. The LCA-modelling was made for 1 tonne of wet waste landfilled and the environmental aspects were evaluated for a 100-year period after disposal. The data utilized in the LCA-calculations to model the first 10-20 years of landfilling of the two low-organic waste scenarios make extensive use of site-specific data from the Nauerna Landfill (The Netherlands), but average data from other comparable, existing landfills were used too. As data from full-scale landfills do not cover more than 30-40 years of landfilling, data from laboratory simulations and accelerated tests of limited scale were also utilized. The life-cycle impact assessments show that the low-organic waste scenarios achieved better environmental performance than the household waste scenarios with regard to both ordinary and toxicity-related environmental impact categories. This indicates that the reduction of organic matter accepted at landfills (as prescribed by the European Union Landfill Directive: Council Directive 1999/31/EC, EU, Brussels, 1999) can be a successful approach to decrease the environmental loads in several impact categories in comparison with landfilling of waste with significant organic content. However, when utilization of landfill gas is accounted for in the life-cycle impact assessment calculation, the small gas generation in low-organic waste landfills reduced the actual potential for energy generation and therefore the environmental savings obtained were reduced proportionally. Groundwater pollution from input of leachate was also evaluated and the WHO (Guidelines for Drinking-water Quality; WHO, Geneva, 2006) guideline for drinking water quality was assumed as reference. The results show that low-organic waste landfills

  15. Finding the Optimum Scenario in Risk-benefit Assessment: An Example on Vitamin D

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Berjia, Firew Lemma; Hoekstra, J.; Verhagen, H.;

    2014-01-01

    Background: In risk-benefit assessment of food and nutrients, several studies so far have focused on comparison of two scenarios to weigh the health effect against each other. One obvious next step is finding the optimum scenario that provides maximum net health gains. Aim: This paper aims to sho...

  16. The definition and treatment of scenarios in a probabilistic systems assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andres, T.H.; Goodwin, B.W

    1998-03-01

    Concepts for the disposal of nuclear waste generally involve the use of multiple barriers, both man-made and natural, to isolate the waste from man's environment for very long periods of time. To assess the safety of these concepts, postclosure safety assessments are conducted to study the types, ranges and probabilities of potential impacts caused by wastes penetrating these barriers. Within the Canadian context, postclosure safety assessments must estimate radiological risk for comparison with regulatory criteria. The definition of radiological risk introduces a requirement to identify and then evaluate scenarios that describe quantitatively the possible behaviour of a disposal system and its surroundings for at least 10{sup 4} years. This report examines the connection between the identification and evaluation of scenarios. It shows how a large collection of factors can be combined to form simple scenarios, and how a large number of simple scenarios can be grouped into a manageably small number of compound scenarios. The compound scenarios, notably the 'central' scenario, can be evaluated using a probabilistic systems assessment code such as SYVAC3 (SYstems Variability Analysis Code, generation 3) to estimate the radiological risk and other environmental impacts. Examples are taken from a long-term performance assessment study to demonstrate a pragmatic application of the procedure. (author)

  17. Economic and environmental assessment of cellulosic ethanol production scenarios annexed to a typical sugar mill.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ali Mandegari, Mohsen; Farzad, Somayeh; Görgens, Johann F

    2017-01-01

    In this work different biorefinery scenarios were investigated, concerning the co-production of bioethanol and electricity from available lignocellulose at a typical sugar mill, as possible extensions to the current combustion of bagasse for steam and electricity production and burning trash on-filed. In scenario 1, the whole bagasse and brown leaves is utilized in a biorefinery and coal is burnt in the existing inefficient sugar mill boiler. Scenario 2 & 3 are assumed with a new centralized CHP unit without/with coal co-combustion, respectively. Also, through scenarios 4 & 5, the effect of water insoluble loading were studied. All scenarios provided energy for the sugarmill and the ethanol plant, with the export of surplus electricity. Economic analysis determined that scenario 1 was the most viable scenario due to less capital cost and economies-of scale. Based on Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) results, scenario 2 outperformed the other scenarios, while three scenarios showed lower contribution to environmental burdens than the current situation.

  18. Life cycle assessment of cell phones in Brazil based on two reverse logistics scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniela da Gama e Silva Volpe Moreira de Moraes

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available This article is a result of a cell phone collection obtained at the Center for Information Technology Renato Archer (CTI under the AMBIENTRONIC Program, an initiative that supports the Brazilian electronic sector in the development of technologies for sustainability. The objective of this article is to assess two reverse logistic scenarios of cell phones using the technique of life-cycle assessment (LCA. The first scenario reflects the current scenario in Brazil, where batteries are recycled in Brazil and the other parts of the phones are outsourced to Europe. The second scenario is a proposal of full treatment in Brazil. The results indicate that the second scenario has a lower potential impact with important reduction of acidification, photochemical oxidation, eutrophication and the use of non-renewable energy. Furthermore, fully implementing reverse logistics in Brazil will enable socioeconomic benefits from the sale of materials and the generation of employment and income.

  19. Assessment of Effectiveness of Geologic Isolation Systems: REFERENCE SITE INITIAL ASSESSMENT FOR A SALT DOME REPOSITORY

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Harwell, M. A.; Brandstetter, A.; Benson, G. L.; Bradley, D. J.; Serne, R. J.; Soldat, J. K; Cole, C. R.; Deutsch, W. J.; Gupta, S. K.; Harwell, C. C.; Napier, B. A.; Reisenauer, A. E.; Prater, L. S.; Simmons, C. S.; Strenge, D. L.; Washburn, J. F.; Zellmer, J. T.

    1982-06-01

    As a methodology demonstration for the Office of Nuclear Waste Isolation (ONWI), the Assessment of Effectiveness of Geologic Isolation Systems (AEGIS) Program conducted an initial reference site analysis of the long-term effectiveness of a salt dome repository. The Hainesville Salt Dome in Texas was chosen to be representative of the Gulf Coast interior salt domes; however, the Hainesville Site has been eliminated as a possible nuclear waste repository site. The data used for this exercise are not adequate for an actual assessment, nor have all the parametric analyses been made that would adequately characterize the response of the geosystem surrounding the repository. Additionally, because this was the first exercise of the complete AEGIS and WASTE Rock Interaction Technology (WRIT) methodology, this report provides the initial opportunity for the methodology, specifically applied to a site, to be reviewed by the community outside the AEGIS. The scenario evaluation, as a part of the methodology demonstration, involved consideration of a large variety of potentially disruptive phenomena, which alone or in concert could lead to a breach in a salt dome repository and to a subsequent transport of the radionuclides to the environment. Without waste- and repository-induced effects, no plausible natural geologic events or processes which would compromise the repository integrity could be envisioned over the one-million-year time frame after closure. Near-field (waste- and repository-induced) effects were excluded from consideration in this analysis, but they can be added in future analyses when that methodology development is more complete. The potential for consequential human intrusion into salt domes within a million-year time frame led to the consideration of a solution mining intrusion scenario. The AEGIS staff developed a specific human intrusion scenario at 100 years and 1000 years post-closure, which is one of a whole suite of possible scenarios. This scenario

  20. Assessment of Effectiveness of Geologic Isolation Systems: REFERENCE SITE INITIAL ASSESSMENT FOR A SALT DOME REPOSITORY

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Harwell, M. A.; Brandstetter, A.; Benson, G. L.; Raymond, J. R.; Brandley, D. J.; Serne, R. J.; Soldat, J. K.; Cole, C. R.; Deutsch, W. J.; Gupta, S. K.; Harwell, C. C.; Napier, B. A.; Reisenauer, A. E.; Prater, L. S.; Simmons, C. S.; Strenge, D. L.; Washburn, J. F.; Zellmer, J. T.

    1982-06-01

    As a methodology demonstration for the Office of Nuclear Waste Isolation (ONWI), the Assessment of Effectiveness of Geologic Isolation Systems (AEGIS) Program conducted an initial reference site analysis of the long-term effectiveness of a salt dome repository. The Hainesville Salt Dome in Texas was chosen to be representative of the Gulf Coast interior salt domes; however, the Hainesville Site has been eliminated as a possible nuclear waste repository site. The data used for this exercise are not adequate for an actual assessment, nor have all the parametric analyses been made that would adequately characterize the response of the geosystem surrounding the repository. Additionally, because this was the first exercise of the complete AEGIS and WASTE Rock Interaction Technology (WRIT) methodology, this report provides the initial opportunity for the methodology, specifically applied to a site, to be reviewed by the community outside the AEGIS. The scenario evaluation, as a part of the methodology demonstration, involved consideration of a large variety of potentially disruptive phenomena, which alone or in concert could lead to a breach in a salt dome repository and to a subsequent transport of the radionuclides to the environment. Without waste- and repository-induced effects, no plausible natural geologic events or processes which would compromise the repository integrity could be envisioned over the one-million-year time frame after closure. Near-field (waste- and repository-induced) effects were excluded from consideration in this analysis, but they can be added in future analyses when that methodology development is more complete. The potential for consequential human intrusion into salt domes within a million-year time frame led to the consideration of a solution mining intrusion scenario. The AEGIS staff developed a specific human intrusion scenario at 100 years and 1000 years post-closure, which is one of a whole suite of possible scenarios. This scenario

  1. Scenario drafting to anticipate future developments in technology assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Retel, V.P.; Joore, M.A.; Rutgers, E.J.; Harten, van W.H.

    2012-01-01

    Background Health Technology Assessment (HTA) information, and in particular cost-effectiveness data is needed to guide decisions, preferably already in early stages of technological development. However, at that moment there is usually a high degree of uncertainty, because evidence is limited and d

  2. Assessing cost-effectiveness of bioretention on stormwater in response to climate change and urbanization for future scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Mo; Zhang, Dongqing; Adhityan, Appan; Ng, Wun Jern; Dong, Jianwen; Tan, Soon Keat

    2016-12-01

    Bioretention, as a popular low impact development practice, has become more important to mitigate adverse impacts on urban stormwater. However, there is very limited information regarding ensuring the effectiveness of bioretention response to uncertain future challenges, especially when taking into consideration climate change and urbanization. The main objective of this paper is to identify the cost-effectiveness of bioretention by assessing the hydrology performance under future scenarios modeling. First, the hydrology model was used to obtain peak runoff and TSS loads of bioretention with variable scales under different scenarios, i.e., different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and Shared Socio-economic reference Pathways (SSPs) for 2-year and 10-year design storms in Singapore. Then, life cycle costing (LCC) and life cycle assessment (LCA) were estimated for bioretention, and the cost-effectiveness was identified under different scenarios. Our finding showed that there were different degree of responses to 2-year and 10-year design storms but the general patterns and insights deduced were similar. The performance of bioretenion was more sensitive to urbanization than that for climate change in the urban catchment. In addition, it was noted that the methodology used in this study was generic and the findings could be useful as reference for other LID practices in response to climate change and urbanization.

  3. Using Performance in Multiple Simulated Scenarios to Assess Bronchoscopy Skills

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Konge, Lars; Arendrup, Henrik; Buchwald, Christian von

    2011-01-01

    using a standardized scoring form. Methods: The test was administered on a virtual reality bronchoscopy simulator to a total of 42 test subjects (14 senior consultants, 14 trainees and 14 medical students). The inter-rater reliability of the test procedure was explored according to examination of test......Background: International guidelines suggest that trainees should perform at least 100 flexible bronchoscopies in a supervised setting, but this number is not evidence based. An objective assessment method could provide educational feedback to trainees and help supervisors decide when basic...

  4. No-Reference Video Quality Assessment using Codec Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Søgaard, Jacob; Forchhammer, Søren; Korhonen, Jari

    2015-01-01

    A no-reference video quality assessment (VQA) method is presented for videos distorted by H.264/AVC and MPEG-2. The assessment is performed without access to the bit-stream. Instead we analyze and estimate coefficients based on decoded pixels. The approach involves distinguishing between the two...... (SVR). For validation purposes, the proposed method was tested on two databases. In both cases good performance compared with state of the art full, reduced, and no-reference VQA algorithms was achieved....

  5. Environmental and economic assessment of protected crops in four European scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Torrellas, M.; Antón, A.; Ruijs, M.N.A.; Garcia Victoria, N.; Stanghellini, C.; Montero, J.I.

    2012-01-01

    In this study we analysed the environmental and economic profile of current agricultural practices for greenhouse crops, in cold and warm climates in Europe, using four scenarios as reference systems: tomato crop in a plastic greenhouse in Spain, and in glasshouses in Hungary and the Netherlands, an

  6. TA-54 (Area G) Risk Assessment from Extreme Wildfire Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Linn, Rodman Ray [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Koo, Eunmo [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Honig, Kristen Ann [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); White, Judith [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Funk, David John [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2016-08-10

    Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) and surrounding areas have been exposed to at least four significant wildfires since 1977 and there have been numerous others within 50 miles of LANL. Based on this history, wildfires are considered a risk to LANL facilities and their contents. While many LANL facilities are at risk to wildfire to some degree, they are found in a wide variety of conditions, thus they have varying sensitivities to wildfires. Additionally, LANL facilities have various functions and different assets, so they have a wide range of values or consequences if compromised. Therefore, determining the risks and precautions that are warranted to mitigate these risks must be done on a case-by-case basis. In an effort to assess possible wildfire risks to sensitive materials stored in a Perma-Con® in dome TA-54-0375, a conventional fire risk analysis was performed. This conventional risk analysis is documented in Engineering Evaluation Form AP-FIRE-001-FM1, which is dated 9/28/2015 and was titled ‘Wildland Fire Exposure Evaluation for Building TA-54-0375’ (Hall 2015). This analysis acknowledged that there was significant chance of wildfire in the vicinity of TA-54-0375, but the amount of combustible material surrounding the building was deemed low. The wildland fuels that were closest to the building were largely fine fuels and were not expected to have significant duration of heat release. The prevailing winds at this location are from the south and southwest and the nearest significant upwind fuels (tree crowns or unmown grasses) are at least 300 feet away. Based on these factors the conventional wildland fire risk to TA-54-0375 was deemed minimal, “Acceptable As Is, No Action Required.” This risk evaluation was based on a combined assessment of low probability of wildfires arriving at the site from other directions (where higher fuel loadings might be present) as well as the effective setback of fuels in the direction that fire is

  7. Assessment of missile hazards: identification of reference fragmentation patterns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gubinelli, Gianfilippo; Cozzani, Valerio

    2009-04-30

    Industrial accidents involving fragment projection were investigated. The analysis of fracture mechanics fundamentals allowed the exploration of the relations between the fracture characteristics and the final event leading to equipment collapse. Reference fragmentation patterns were defined on the basis of the geometrical characteristics of the categories of process vessels that are more frequently involved in fragmentation accidents. Primary scenarios leading to fragment projection were correlated to specific fragmentation patterns. A database reporting a detailed analysis of more than 140 vessel fragmentation events provided the data needed to support and validate the approach. The available data also allowed the calculation of the expected probability of fragment projection following vessel fragmentation, and the probability of the alternative fragmentation patterns with respect to the different accidental scenarios, based on the observed frequencies over the available data set.

  8. QTI for self-assessment and embeddedassessment in competence oriented scenarios: The Agora Case

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Santos, Patricia; Llobet, Wenceslao; Hernández-Leo, Davinia; Blat, Josep

    2009-01-01

    Santos, P., Llobet, W., Hernández-Leo, D., & Blat, J. (2009). QTI for self-assessment and embedded assessment in competence oriented scenarios: The Agora Case. Proceedings of the 2009 International Conference on Intelligent Networking and Collaborative Systems (pp. 39-45). November, 4-6, 2009, Barce

  9. US National Climate Assessment (NCA) Scenarios for Assessing Our Climate Future: Issues and Methodological Perspectives Background Whitepaper for Participants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moss, Richard H.; Engle, Nathan L.; Hall, John; Jacobs, Kathy; Lempert, Rob; Mearns, L. O.; Melillo, Jerry; Mote, Phil; O' Brien, Sheila; Rosenzweig, C.; Ruane, Alex; Sheppard, Stephen; Vallario, Robert W.; Wiek, Arnim; Wilbanks, Thomas

    2011-10-01

    This whitepaper is intended to provide a starting point for discussion at a workshop for the National Climate Assessment (NCA) that focuses on the use and development of scenarios. The paper will provide background needed by participants in the workshop in order to review options for developing and using scenarios in NCA. The paper briefly defines key terms and establishes a conceptual framework for developing consistent scenarios across different end uses and spatial scales. It reviews uses of scenarios in past U.S. national assessments and identifies potential users of and needs for scenarios for both the report scheduled for release in June 2013 and to support an ongoing distributed assessment process in sectors and regions around the country. Because scenarios prepared for the NCA will need to leverage existing research, the paper takes account of recent scientific advances and activities that could provide needed inputs. Finally, it considers potential approaches for providing methods, data, and other tools for assessment participants. We note that the term 'scenarios' has many meanings. An important goal of the whitepaper (and portions of the workshop agenda) is pedagogical (i.e., to compare different meanings and uses of the term and make assessment participants aware of the need to be explicit about types and uses of scenarios). In climate change research, scenarios have been used to establish bounds for future climate conditions and resulting effects on human and natural systems, given a defined level of greenhouse gas emissions. This quasi-predictive use contrasts with the way decision analysts typically use scenarios (i.e., to consider how robust alternative decisions or strategies may be to variation in key aspects of the future that are uncertain). As will be discussed, in climate change research and assessment, scenarios describe a range of aspects of the future, including major driving forces (both human activities and natural processes

  10. Scenario-based assessment of buildings damage and population exposure due to tsunamis for the town of Alexandria, Egypt

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Pagnoni

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Alexandria is the second biggest city in Egypt as regards population, is a key economic area in northern Africa and has a very important tourist activity. Historical catalogues indicate that it was severely affected by a number of tsunami events. In this work we assess the tsunami hazard by running numerical simulations of tsunami impact in Alexandria through the Worst-case Credible Tsunami Scenario Analysis (WCTSA. We identify three main seismic sources: the Western Hellenic Arc (WHA – reference event AD 365, Mw = 8.5, the Eastern Hellenic Arc (EHA – reference event 1303, Mw = 8.0 and the Cyprus Arc (CA – hypothetical scenario earthquake with Mw = 8.0, inferred from the tectonic setting and from historical tsunami catalogues. All numerical simulations are carried out by means of the code UBO-TSUFD, developed and maintained by the Tsunami Research Team of the University of Bologna. Relevant tsunami metrics are computed for each scenario and then used to build aggregated fields such as the maximum flood depth and the maximum inundation area. We find that the case that produces the most relevant flooding in Alexandria is the EHA scenario, with wave heights up to 4 m. The aggregate fields are used for a building vulnerability assessment according to a methodology developed in the frame of the EU-FP6 project SCHEMA and further refined in this study, based on the adoption of a suitable building damage matrix and on water inundation depth. It is found that in the districts of El Dekhila and Al Amriyah, to the south-west of the port of Dekhila over 12 000 buildings could be affected and hundreds of them could incur in consequences ranging from important damage to total collapse. It is also found that in the same districts tsunami inundation covers an area of about 15 km2 resulting in more than 150 000 residents being exposed.

  11. Environmental assessment of low-organic waste landfill scenarios by means of life-cycle assessment modelling (EASEWASTE)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Manfredi, Simone; Christensen, Thomas Højlund; Scharff, H.

    2010-01-01

    The environmental performance of two low-organic waste landfill scenarios ('low-organic-energy' and 'low-organic-flare') was developed and compared with two household waste landfill scenarios ('household-energy' and 'household-flare') by means of LCA-modelling. The LCA-modelling was made for 1...... tonne of wet waste landfilled and the environmental aspects were evaluated for a 100-year period after disposal. The data utilized in the LCA-calculations to model the first 10-20 years of landfilling of the two low-organic waste scenarios make extensive use of site-specific data from the Nauerna...... assessments show that the low-organic waste scenarios achieved better environmental performance than the household waste scenarios with regard to both ordinary and toxicity-related environmental impact categories. This indicates that the reduction of organic matter accepted at landfills (as prescribed...

  12. Specificity, contexts, and reference groups matter when assessing autistic traits

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stevenson, Jennifer L.; Dern, Sebastian

    2017-01-01

    Many of the personality and behavioral traits (e.g., social imperviousness, directness in conversation, lack of imagination, affinity for solitude, difficulty displaying emotions) that are known to be sensitive to context (with whom?) and reference group (according to whom?) also appear in questionnaire-based assessments of autistic traits. Therefore, two experiments investigated the effects of specifying contexts and reference groups when assessing autistic traits in autistic and non-autistic participants. Experiment 1 (124 autistic and 124 non-autistic participants) demonstrated that context matters when assessing autistic traits (F(1,244) = 267.5, p < .001, η2p = .523). When the context of the Broad Autism Phenotype Questionnaire was specified as the participants’ out-group (e.g., “I like being around non-autistic people” or “I like being around autistic people”), both autistic and non-autistic participants self-reported having more autistic traits; when the context was specified as the participants’ in-group, participants reported having fewer autistic traits. Experiment 2 (82 autistic and 82 non-autistic participants) demonstrated that reference group matters when assessing autistic traits (F(2,160) = 94.38, p < .001, η2p = .541). When the reference group on the Social Responsiveness Scale was specified as the participants’ out-group (e.g., “According to non-autistic people, I have unusual eye contact”), autistic participants reported having more autistic traits; when the reference group was their in-group, autistic participants reported having fewer autistic traits. Non-autistic participants appeared insensitive to reference group on the Social Responsiveness Scale. Exploratory analyses suggested that when neither the context nor the reference group is specified (for assessing autistic traits on the Autism-Spectrum Quotient), both autistic and non-autistic participants use the majority (“non-autistic people”) as the implied context and

  13. Technology assessment of solar energy systems. Scenario development and methodology. Volume II

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schiffman, Y.M.

    1981-07-01

    Included are a general overview of the Technology Assessment of Solar Energy systems (TASE) project and a description of the study approach, the development of the TASE scenarios, energy and environmental assumptions, and assumptions and forecasts of the FOSSIL2 National Energy Model upon which the TASE scenarios were based. The Strategic Environmental Assessment System (SEAS) model was used to generate the analytical data base for TASE. Improvements made to SEAS to allow it to model solar and biomass energy technologies are also described.

  14. Participatory impact assessment of soil and water conservation scenarios in Oum Zessar watershed, Tunisia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    König, Hannes Jochen; Sghaier, Mongi; Schuler, Johannes; Abdeladhim, Mohamed; Helming, Katharina; Tonneau, Jean-Philippe; Ounalli, Nadia; Imbernon, Jacques; Morris, Jake; Wiggering, Hubert

    2012-07-01

    Environmental threats and progressive degradation of natural resources are considered critical impediments to sustainable development. This paper reports on a participatory impact assessment of alternative soil and water conservation (SWC) scenarios in the Oum Zessar watershed, Tunisia. The first objective was to assess the impact of three SWC scenarios on key social, economic and environmental land use functions. The second objective was to test and evaluate the applicability of the 'Framework for Participatory Impact Assessment (FoPIA)' for assessing scenario impacts in the context of a developing country, in this case Tunisia. The assessed scenarios included: the originally planned SWC policy implementation at 85 % coverage of arable land of the watershed, the current implementation (70 %), and a hypothetical expansion of SWC measures to the entire watershed (100 %). Our results suggest that implementation of the SWC policy at 100 % coverage of arable land achieves the maximum socioeconomic benefit. However, if stakeholders' preferences regarding land use functions are taken into account, and considering the fact that the implementation of SWC measures also implies some negative changes to traditional landscapes and the natural system, SWC implementation at 85 % coverage of arable land might be preferable. The FoPIA approved to be a useful tool for conducting a holistic sustainability impact assessment of SWC scenarios and for studying the most intriguing sustainability problems while providing possible recommendations towards sustainable development. We conclude that participatory impact assessment contributes to an enhanced regional understanding of key linkages between policy effects and sustainable development, which provides the foundation for improved policy decision making.

  15. Performance Assessment of a Solar-Assisted Desiccant-Based Air Handling Unit Considering Different Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giovanni Angrisani

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, three alternative layouts (scenarios of an innovative solar-assisted hybrid desiccant-based air handling unit (AHU are investigated through dynamic simulations. Performance is evaluated with respect to a reference system and compared to those of the innovative plant without modifications. For each scenario, different collector types, surfaces and tilt angles are considered. The effect of the solar thermal energy surplus exploitation for other low-temperature uses is also investigated. The first alternative scenario consists of the recovery of the heat rejected by the condenser of the chiller to pre-heat the regeneration air. The second scenario considers the pre-heating of regeneration air with the warmer regeneration air exiting the desiccant wheel (DW. The last scenario provides pre-cooling of the process air before entering the DW. Results reveal that the plants with evacuated solar collectors (SC can ensure primary energy savings (15%–24% and avoid equivalent CO2 emissions (14%–22%, about 10 percentage points more than those with flat-plate collectors, when the solar thermal energy is used only for air conditioning and the collectors have the best tilt angle. If all of the solar thermal energy is considered, the best results with evacuated tube collectors are approximately 73% in terms of primary energy saving, 71% in terms of avoided equivalent CO2 emissions and a payback period of six years.

  16. Scenario Simulation-Based Assessment of Trip Difficulty for Urban Residents under Rainstorm Waterlogging

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yingyue Sun

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available In this study, an experiment was performed to assess the trip difficulty for urban residents of different age groups walking in various depths of water, and the data were corroborated with the real urban rainstorm waterlogging scenarios in downtown (Daoli district Ha-Erbin (China. Mathematical models of urban rainstorm waterlogging were constructed using scenario simulation methods, aided by the GIS spatial analysis technology and hydrodynamic analysis of the waterway systems in the study area. Then these models were used to evaluate the impact of waterlogging on the safety of residents walking in the affected area. Results are summarized as: (1 for an urban rainstorm waterlogging scenario reoccurring once every 10 years, three grid regions would have waterlogging above 0.5 m moving at a velocity of 1.5 m/s. Under this scenario, waterlogging would accumulate on traffic roads only in small areas, affecting the safety and mobility of residents walking in the neighborhood; (2 for an urban rainstorm waterlogging scenario reoccurring once every 20 years, 13 grids experienced the same waterlogging situation affecting a larger area of the city; (3 for an urban rainstorm waterlogging scenario reoccurring once every 50 years, 86 grid regions were affected (waterlogging above 0.5 m moving at 1.5 m/s, and those areas would become impassable for residents.

  17. QTI for self-assessment and embeddedassessment in competence oriented scenarios: The Agora Case

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Santos, Patricia; Llobet, Wenceslao; Hernández-Leo, Davinia; Blat, Josep

    2009-01-01

    Santos, P., Llobet, W., Hernández-Leo, D., & Blat J. (2009). QTI for self-assessment and embeddedassessment in competence oriented scenarios: The Agora Case. Proceedings of the International Conference on Intelligent Networking and Collaborative Systems (INCoS 2009). November, 4-6, 2009, Barcelona,

  18. Choosing and using climate change scenarios for ecological-impact assessments and conservation decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amy K. Snover,; Nathan J. Mantua,; Littell, Jeremy; Michael A. Alexander,; Michelle M. McClure,; Janet Nye,

    2013-01-01

    Increased concern over climate change is demonstrated by the many efforts to assess climate effects and develop adaptation strategies. Scientists, resource managers, and decision makers are increasingly expected to use climate information, but they struggle with its uncertainty. With the current proliferation of climate simulations and downscaling methods, scientifically credible strategies for selecting a subset for analysis and decision making are needed. Drawing on a rich literature in climate science and impact assessment and on experience working with natural resource scientists and decision makers, we devised guidelines for choosing climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment that recognize irreducible uncertainty in climate projections and address common misconceptions about this uncertainty. This approach involves identifying primary local climate drivers by climate sensitivity of the biological system of interest; determining appropriate sources of information for future changes in those drivers; considering how well processes controlling local climate are spatially resolved; and selecting scenarios based on considering observed emission trends, relative importance of natural climate variability, and risk tolerance and time horizon of the associated decision. The most appropriate scenarios for a particular analysis will not necessarily be the most appropriate for another due to differences in local climate drivers, biophysical linkages to climate, decision characteristics, and how well a model simulates the climate parameters and processes of interest. Given these complexities, we recommend interaction among climate scientists, natural and physical scientists, and decision makers throughout the process of choosing and using climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment.

  19. Participatory scenario development for integrated assessment of nutrient flows in a Catalan river catchment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Caille

    2007-11-01

    Full Text Available Rivers in developed regions are under significant stress due to nutrient enrichment generated mainly by human activities. Excess nitrogen and phosphorus emissions are the product of complex dynamic systems influenced by various factors such as demographic, socio-economic and technological development. Using a Catalan river catchment, La Tordera (North-East of Spain, as a case study of an integrated and interdisciplinary environmental assessment of nutrient flows, we present and discuss the development of narrative socio-economic scenarios through a participatory process for the sustainable management of the anthropogenic sources of nutrients, nitrogen and phosphorus. In this context, scenarios are an appropriate tool to assist nutrient emissions modelling, and to assess impacts, possible pathways for socio-economic development and associated uncertainties. Evaluated against the 1993–2003 baseline period, scenarios target the 2030 horizon, i.e. through the implementation process of the Water Framework Directive (Directive 2000/60/EC. After a critical examination of the methodology used in the participatory development of socio-economic scenarios, we present four possible futures (or perspectives for the Catalan river catchment conceived by stakeholders invited to a workshop. Keys to the success of such a participatory process were trust, which enhanced openness, and disagreements, which fostered the group's creativity for scenario development. The translation of narrative socio-economic scenarios into meaningful nutrient emission scenarios is also discussed. By integrating findings of natural sciences and socio-economic analysis, we aim to assist decision makers and stakeholders in evaluating optimal management strategies for the anthropogenic sources of nitrogen and phosphorus.

  20. Participatory scenario development for integrated assessment of nutrient flows in a Catalan river catchment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Caille

    2007-05-01

    Full Text Available Rivers in developed regions are under significant stress due to nutrient enrichment generated mainly by human activities. Excess nitrogen and phosphorus emissions are the product of complex dynamic systems influenced by various factors such as demographic, socio-economic and technological development. Using a Catalan river catchment, La Tordera (North-East of Spain, as a case study of an integrated and interdisciplinary environmental assessment of nutrient flows, we present and discuss the development of socio-economic scenarios through a participatory process for the sustainable management of the anthropogenic sources of nutrients, nitrogen and phosphorus. In this context, scenarios are an appropriate tool to assist nutrient emissions modelling, and to assess impacts, possible pathways for socio-economic development and associated uncertainties. Evaluated against the 1993–2003 baseline period, scenarios target the 2030 horizon, i.e., through the implementation process of the Water Framework Directive (Directive 2000/60/EC. After a critical examination of the methodology used in the participatory development of socio-economic scenarios, we present four possible futures (or perspectives for the Catalan river catchment conceived by stakeholders invited to a workshop. Keys to the success of such a participatory process were trust, which enhanced openness, and disagreements, which fostered the group's creativity for scenario development. The translation of narrative socio-economic scenarios into meaningful nutrient emission scenarios is also presented. By integrating findings of natural sciences and socio-economic analysis, we aim to assist decision makers and stakeholders in evaluating optimal management strategies for the anthropogenic sources of nitrogen and phosphorus.

  1. Assessment of municipal solid waste management scenarios in Irkutsk (Russia) using a life cycle assessment-integrated waste management model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tulokhonova, Alisa; Ulanova, Olga

    2013-05-01

    Continuous growth in the quantity of municipal solid waste (MSW) and increasing demands for their environmentally-friendly treatment are one of the main consequences of the growing social and economic development rate in modern society. Despite ecologically sustainable trends in waste management systems around the world, open dumps are still the main waste treatment option in Russia. This study aims to help the local municipality administration in Irkutsk (Russia) identify the most appropriate direction for current waste management and its optimization. Within this study four developed MSW management scenarios were assessed and compared with respect to their ecological, economic and social aspects using a life cycle-based integrated waste management model. The evaluation results of these scenarios show that the development of environmental sustainability and the reduction of social effects lead to an increase in handling of costs of waste. The best scenario, regarding both environmental and social aspects, is scenario four, which includes the separate collection and reprocessing of recyclables in combination with an aerobic mechanical-biological pre-treatment of the residual waste before landfilling. However, this scenario is 3.6 times more expensive than the existing system. The results of all assessed scenarios were further analyzed and recommendations were made to design integrated waste management solutions that are optimal not only from the ecological and social points of view, but which are also realistic within the given economic situation.

  2. Reimbursement of pharmaceuticals: Reference pricing versus health technology assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M. Drummond (Michael); B. Jönsson (Bengt); F.F.H. Rutten (Frans); T. Stargardt (Tom)

    2011-01-01

    textabstractReference pricing and health technology assessment are policies commonly applied in order to obtain more value for money from pharmaceuticals. This study focussed on decisions about the initial price and reimbursement status of innovative drugs and discussed the consequences for market a

  3. Scenario Based Approach for Multiple Source Tsunami Hazard Assessment for Sines, Portugal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wronna, Martin; Omira, Rachid; Baptista, Maria Ana

    2015-04-01

    In this paper, we present a scenario-based approach for tsunami hazard assessment for the city and harbour of Sines, Portugal one the test-sites of project ASTARTE. Sines holds one of the most important deep-water ports which contains oil-bearing, petrochemical, liquid bulk, coal and container terminals. The port and its industrial infrastructures are facing the ocean to the southwest facing the main seismogenic sources. This work considers two different seismic zones: the Southwest Iberian Margin and the Gloria Fault. Within these two regions, a total of five scenarios were selected to assess tsunami impact at the test site. These scenarios correspond to the worst-case credible scenario approach based upon the largest events of the historical and paleo tsunami catalogues. The tsunami simulations from the source area towards the coast is carried out using NSWING a Non-linear Shallow Water Model With Nested Grids. The code solves the non-linear shallow water equations using the discretization and explicit leap-frog finite difference scheme, in a Cartesian or Spherical frame. The initial sea surface displacement is assumed to be equal to the sea bottom deformation that is computed by Okada equations. Both uniform and non-uniform slip conditions are used. The presented results correspond to the models using non-uniform slip conditions. In this study, the static effect of tides is analysed for three different tidal stages MLLW (mean lower low water) MSL (mean sea level) and MHHW (mean higher high water). For each scenario, inundation is described by maximum values of wave height, flow depth, drawdown, run-up and inundation distance. Synthetic waveforms are computed at virtual tide gages at specific locations outside and inside the harbour. The final results consist of Aggregate Scenario Maps presented for the different inundation parameters. This work is funded by ASTARTE - Assessment, Strategy And Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe - FP7-ENV2013 6.4-3, Grant 603839

  4. Climate change impact assessment on Veneto and Friuli Plain groundwater. Part I: an integrated modeling approach for hazard scenario construction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baruffi, F; Cisotto, A; Cimolino, A; Ferri, M; Monego, M; Norbiato, D; Cappelletto, M; Bisaglia, M; Pretner, A; Galli, A; Scarinci, A; Marsala, V; Panelli, C; Gualdi, S; Bucchignani, E; Torresan, S; Pasini, S; Critto, A; Marcomini, A

    2012-12-01

    Climate change impacts on water resources, particularly groundwater, is a highly debated topic worldwide, triggering international attention and interest from both researchers and policy makers due to its relevant link with European water policy directives (e.g. 2000/60/EC and 2007/118/EC) and related environmental objectives. The understanding of long-term impacts of climate variability and change is therefore a key challenge in order to address effective protection measures and to implement sustainable management of water resources. This paper presents the modeling approach adopted within the Life+ project TRUST (Tool for Regional-scale assessment of groUndwater Storage improvement in adaptation to climaTe change) in order to provide climate change hazard scenarios for the shallow groundwater of high Veneto and Friuli Plain, Northern Italy. Given the aim to evaluate potential impacts on water quantity and quality (e.g. groundwater level variation, decrease of water availability for irrigation, variations of nitrate infiltration processes), the modeling approach integrated an ensemble of climate, hydrologic and hydrogeologic models running from the global to the regional scale. Global and regional climate models and downscaling techniques were used to make climate simulations for the reference period 1961-1990 and the projection period 2010-2100. The simulation of the recent climate was performed using observed radiative forcings, whereas the projections have been done prescribing the radiative forcings according to the IPCC A1B emission scenario. The climate simulations and the downscaling, then, provided the precipitation, temperatures and evapo-transpiration fields used for the impact analysis. Based on downscaled climate projections, 3 reference scenarios for the period 2071-2100 (i.e. the driest, the wettest and the mild year) were selected and used to run a regional geomorphoclimatic and hydrogeological model. The final output of the model ensemble produced

  5. A Systematic Approach to Explorative Scenario Analysis in Emergy Assessment with Emphasis on Resilience

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kamp, Andreas; Østergård, Hanne

    2016-01-01

    the future may bring. We develop a systematic approach to explorative scenario analysis and attempt to quantify aspects of resilience specifically for emergy assessment (EmA) of production systems. We group system inputs into five categories: (1) fossil fuels, their derivatives, metals and minerals, (2) on......-site renewable inputs, (3) slowly renewable inputs, (4) direct labour and (5) indirect labour. We consider the existing EmA indicators of biophysical efficiency (the unit emergy value, UEV), the degree of dependence on free, renewable, natural flows of energy (%R) and the degree of dependence on local inputs...... by corresponding narratives. We analyse the aggregated effect on UEVs of these scenarios for production systems that differ with respect to how the emergy flow is distributed among the five input categories. We find that for most production systems, scenario conditions significantly affect the UEV. The production...

  6. Environmental assessment of amine-based carbon capture Scenario modelling with life cycle assessment (LCA)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brekke, Andreas; Askham, Cecilia; Modahl, Ingunn Saur; Vold, Bjoern Ivar; Johnsen, Fredrik Moltu

    2012-07-01

    This report contains a first attempt at introducing the environmental impacts associated with amines and derivatives in a life cycle assessment (LCA) of gas power production with carbon capture and comparing these with other environmental impacts associated with the production system. The report aims to identify data gaps and methodological challenges connected both to modelling toxicity of amines and derivatives and weighting of environmental impacts. A scenario based modelling exercise was performed on a theoretical gas power plant with carbon capture, where emission levels of nitrosamines were varied between zero (gas power without CCS) to a worst case level (outside the probable range of actual carbon capture facilities). Because of extensive research and development in the areas of solvents and emissions from carbon capture facilities in the latter years, data used in the exercise may be outdated and results should therefore not be taken at face value.The results from the exercise showed: According to UseTox, emissions of nitrosamines are less important than emissions of formaldehyde with regard to toxicity related to operation of (i.e. both inputs to and outputs from) a carbon capture facility. If characterisation factors for emissions of metals are included, these outweigh all other toxic emissions in the study. None of the most recent weighting methods in LCA include characterisation factors for nitrosamines, and these are therefore not part of the environmental ranking.These results shows that the EDecIDe project has an important role to play in developing LCA methodology useful for assessing the environmental performance of amine based carbon capture in particular and CCS in general. The EDecIDe project will examine the toxicity models used in LCA in more detail, specifically UseTox. The applicability of the LCA compartment models and site specificity issues for a Norwegian/Arctic situation will be explored. This applies to the environmental compartments

  7. Developing scenarios to assess future landslide risks: a model-based approach applied to mountainous regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vacquie, Laure; Houet, Thomas

    2016-04-01

    In the last century, European mountain landscapes have experienced significant transformations. Natural and anthropogenic changes, climate changes, touristic and industrial development, socio-economic interactions, and their implications in terms of LUCC (land use and land cover changes) have directly influenced the spatial organization and vulnerability of mountain landscapes. This study is conducted as part of the SAMCO project founded by the French National Science Agency (ANR). It aims at developing a methodological approach, combining various tools, modelling platforms and methods, to identify vulnerable regions to landslide hazards accounting for futures LUCC. It presents an integrated approach combining participative scenarios and a LULC changes simulation models to assess the combined effects of LUCC and climate change on landslide risks in the Cauterets valley (French Pyrenees Mountains) up to 2100. Through vulnerability and risk mapping, the objective is to gather information to support landscape planning and implement land use strategies with local stakeholders for risk management. Four contrasting scenarios are developed and exhibit contrasting trajectories of socio-economic development. Prospective scenarios are based on national and international socio-economic contexts relying on existing assessment reports. The methodological approach integrates knowledge from local stakeholders to refine each scenario during their construction and to reinforce their plausibility and relevance by accounting for local specificities, e.g. logging and pastoral activities, touristic development, urban planning, etc. A process-based model, the Forecasting Scenarios for Mountains (ForeSceM) model, developed on the Dinamica Ego modelling platform is used to spatially allocate futures LUCC for each prospective scenario. Concurrently, a spatial decision support tool, i.e. the SYLVACCESS model, is used to identify accessible areas for forestry in scenario projecting logging

  8. Reduced-reference image quality assessment using moment method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Diwei; Shen, Yuantong; Shen, Yongluo; Li, Hongwei

    2016-10-01

    Reduced-reference image quality assessment (RR IQA) aims to evaluate the perceptual quality of a distorted image through partial information of the corresponding reference image. In this paper, a novel RR IQA metric is proposed by using the moment method. We claim that the first and second moments of wavelet coefficients of natural images can have approximate and regular change that are disturbed by different types of distortions, and that this disturbance can be relevant to human perceptions of quality. We measure the difference of these statistical parameters between reference and distorted image to predict the visual quality degradation. The introduced IQA metric is suitable for implementation and has relatively low computational complexity. The experimental results on Laboratory for Image and Video Engineering (LIVE) and Tampere Image Database (TID) image databases indicate that the proposed metric has a good predictive performance.

  9. Scenario Methodology for Modelling of Future Landscape Developments as Basis for Assessing Ecosystem Services

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthias Rosenberg

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available The ecosystems of our intensively used European landscapes produce a variety of natural goods and services for the benefit of humankind, and secure the basics and quality of life. Because these ecosystems are still undergoing fundamental changes, the interest of the society is to know more about future developments and their ecological impacts. To describe and analyze these changes, scenarios can be developed and an assessment of the ecological changes can be carried out subsequently. In the project „Landscape Saxony 2050“; a methodology for the construction of exploratory scenarios was worked out. The presented methodology provides a possibility to identify the driving forces (socio-cultural, economic and ecological conditions of the landscape development. It allows to indicate possible future paths which lead to a change of structures and processes in the landscape and can influence the capability to provide ecosystem services. One essential component of the applied technique is that an approach for the assessment of the effects of the landscape changes on ecosystem services is integrated into the developed scenario methodology. Another is, that the methodology is strong designed as participatory, i.e. stakeholders are integrated actively. The method is a seven phase model which provides the option for the integration of the stakeholders‘ participation at all levels of scenario development. The scenario framework was applied to the district of Görlitz, an area of 2100 sq km located at the eastern border of Germany. The region is affected by strong demographic as well as economic changes. The core issue focused on the examination of landscape change in terms of biodiversity. Together with stakeholders, a trend scenario and two alternative scenarios were developed. The changes of the landscape structure are represented in story lines, maps and tables. On basis of the driving forces of the issue areas „cultural / social values“ and

  10. Safety case for the disposal of spent nuclear fuel at Olkiluoto. Assessment of radionuclide release scenarios for the repository system 2012

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2012-12-15

    , taking into account the uncertainty in timing and in the number of canisters potentially affected. Peak normalised releases for all calculation cases for the base, variant and disturbance scenarios are below the nuclide-specific constraints for the radioactive releases to the environment, as set out by the Finnish regulator, generally by more than an order of magnitude, even taking into account the possibility of multiple canister failures. Possible binary combinations of scenarios have been considered. Many can be excluded from detailed analysis on qualitative grounds. Where it is appropriate to sum the release rate of two different scenarios, the combined release rate to the surface environment still does not exceed the regulatory constraint. Finnish regulations also require an assessment of doses to humans, plants and animals, which should extend over a period in which such an assessment can be performed with sufficient reliability, with a minimum of several millennia. As a consequence, the period up to 10,000 years is referred to by Posiva as the dose criteria time window. Releases to the surface environment within the dose criteria time window are found to occur in the base scenario Reference Case, in some sensitivity cases for the base and variant scenarios and in one what-if case for the disturbance scenarios (AIC-LI). Biosphere modelling is carried out for these calculation cases and reported in Biosphere Assessment. (orig.)

  11. No-Reference Video Quality Assessment using MPEG Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Søgaard, Jacob; Forchhammer, Søren; Korhonen, Jari

    2013-01-01

    We present a method for No-Reference (NR) Video Quality Assessment (VQA) for decoded video without access to the bitstream. This is achieved by extracting and pooling features from a NR image quality assessment method used frame by frame. We also present methods to identify the video coding...... and estimate the video coding parameters for MPEG-2 and H.264/AVC which can be used to improve the VQA. The analysis differs from most other video coding analysis methods since it is without access to the bitstream. The results show that our proposed method is competitive with other recent NR VQA methods...

  12. Choosing and using climate-change scenarios for ecological-impact assessments and conservation decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Snover, Amy K; Mantua, Nathan J; Littell, Jeremy S; Alexander, Michael A; McClure, Michelle M; Nye, Janet

    2013-12-01

    Increased concern over climate change is demonstrated by the many efforts to assess climate effects and develop adaptation strategies. Scientists, resource managers, and decision makers are increasingly expected to use climate information, but they struggle with its uncertainty. With the current proliferation of climate simulations and downscaling methods, scientifically credible strategies for selecting a subset for analysis and decision making are needed. Drawing on a rich literature in climate science and impact assessment and on experience working with natural resource scientists and decision makers, we devised guidelines for choosing climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment that recognize irreducible uncertainty in climate projections and address common misconceptions about this uncertainty. This approach involves identifying primary local climate drivers by climate sensitivity of the biological system of interest; determining appropriate sources of information for future changes in those drivers; considering how well processes controlling local climate are spatially resolved; and selecting scenarios based on considering observed emission trends, relative importance of natural climate variability, and risk tolerance and time horizon of the associated decision. The most appropriate scenarios for a particular analysis will not necessarily be the most appropriate for another due to differences in local climate drivers, biophysical linkages to climate, decision characteristics, and how well a model simulates the climate parameters and processes of interest. Given these complexities, we recommend interaction among climate scientists, natural and physical scientists, and decision makers throughout the process of choosing and using climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment. Selección y Uso de Escenarios de Cambio Climático para Estudios de Impacto Ecológico y Decisiones de Conservación.

  13. Uncertainty Assessment for Numerical Modeling of Dune and Backshore Evolution Under Sea-Level Rise Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dai, H.; Ye, M.; Niedoroda, A. W.; Kish, S.; Donoghue, J. F.; Saha, B.

    2010-12-01

    The beach dunes play an essential role in the evolution of barrier island shapes and coastlines. The dunes protect the beaches and beach ecology by absorbing energy from the storms and provide sediment to the beaches or backshores when erosion occurs. While a number of models have been developed to simulate the evolution of dunes and backshores, few of the models have comprehensively addressed dune growth, dune erosion, and backshore changes. Based on the assumption that dune shapes are stationary, we develop a new model that can estimate the dune and backshore evolution (including both growth and erosion) under the influence of storms with different sea-level rise scenarios. The modeling results are inherently uncertain due to unknown storm variability and sea-level rise scenarios. The storm uncertainty, characterized as parametric uncertainty, and its propagation to the modeling results are assessed using the Monte Carlo (MC) method. A total of 1500 realizations of storm magnitude, frequency, and track through a barrier island are generated and used for the MC simulation. The numerical modeling and uncertainty analysis is conducted for a synthetic barrier island with physical features and hurrucane exposure similar to Santa Rosa Island, in northwest Florida. Uncertainty in the simulated beach dune heights, dune width, and the backshore positions is assessed for five sea-level rise scenarios. The parametric uncertainty is different for different sea-level rise scenarios. For a given scenario, uncertainty of dune height is the largest and it is mainly caused by uncertainty in storm magnitude. This uncertainty analysis provides guidelines for coastal management and protection of coastal ecology.

  14. Towards a global water scarcity risk assessment framework: using scenarios and risk distributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veldkamp, Ted; Wada, Yoshihide; Aerts, Jeroen; Ward, Philip

    2016-04-01

    Over the past decades, changing hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions have led to increased water scarcity problems. A large number of studies have shown that these water scarcity conditions will worsen in the near future. Despite numerous calls for risk-based assessments of water scarcity, a framework that includes UNISDR's definition of risk does not yet exist at the global scale. This study provides a first step towards such a risk-based assessment, applying a Gamma distribution to estimate water scarcity conditions at the global scale under historic and future conditions, using multiple climate change projections and socioeconomic scenarios. Our study highlights that water scarcity risk increases given all future scenarios, up to >56.2% of the global population in 2080. Looking at the drivers of risk, we find that population growth outweigh the impacts of climate change at global and regional scales. Using a risk-based method to assess water scarcity in terms of Expected Annual Exposed Population, we show the results to be less sensitive than traditional water scarcity assessments to the use of fixed threshold to represent different levels of water scarcity. This becomes especially important when moving from global to local scales, whereby deviations increase up to 50% of estimated risk levels. Covering hazard, exposure, and vulnerability, risk-based methods are well-suited to assess water scarcity adaptation. Completing the presented risk framework therefore offers water managers a promising perspective to increase water security in a well-informed and adaptive manner.

  15. Climate change impact assessment on Veneto and Friuli plain groundwater. Part I: An integrated modeling approach for hazard scenario construction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baruffi, F. [Autorita di Bacino dei Fiumi dell' Alto Adriatico, Cannaregio 4314, 30121 Venice (Italy); Cisotto, A., E-mail: segreteria@adbve.it [Autorita di Bacino dei Fiumi dell' Alto Adriatico, Cannaregio 4314, 30121 Venice (Italy); Cimolino, A.; Ferri, M.; Monego, M.; Norbiato, D.; Cappelletto, M.; Bisaglia, M. [Autorita di Bacino dei Fiumi dell' Alto Adriatico, Cannaregio 4314, 30121 Venice (Italy); Pretner, A.; Galli, A. [SGI Studio Galli Ingegneria, via della Provvidenza 13, 35030 Sarmeola di Rubano (PD) (Italy); Scarinci, A., E-mail: andrea.scarinci@sgi-spa.it [SGI Studio Galli Ingegneria, via della Provvidenza 13, 35030 Sarmeola di Rubano (PD) (Italy); Marsala, V.; Panelli, C. [SGI Studio Galli Ingegneria, via della Provvidenza 13, 35030 Sarmeola di Rubano (PD) (Italy); Gualdi, S., E-mail: silvio.gualdi@bo.ingv.it [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), via Augusto Imperatore 16, 73100 Lecce (Italy); Bucchignani, E., E-mail: e.bucchignani@cira.it [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), via Augusto Imperatore 16, 73100 Lecce (Italy); Torresan, S., E-mail: torresan@cmcc.it [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), via Augusto Imperatore 16, 73100 Lecce (Italy); Pasini, S., E-mail: sara.pasini@stud.unive.it [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), via Augusto Imperatore 16, 73100 Lecce (Italy); Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistics, University Ca' Foscari Venice, Calle Larga S. Marta 2137, 30123 Venice (Italy); Critto, A., E-mail: critto@unive.it [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), via Augusto Imperatore 16, 73100 Lecce (Italy); Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistics, University Ca' Foscari Venice, Calle Larga S. Marta 2137, 30123 Venice (Italy); and others

    2012-12-01

    Climate change impacts on water resources, particularly groundwater, is a highly debated topic worldwide, triggering international attention and interest from both researchers and policy makers due to its relevant link with European water policy directives (e.g. 2000/60/EC and 2007/118/EC) and related environmental objectives. The understanding of long-term impacts of climate variability and change is therefore a key challenge in order to address effective protection measures and to implement sustainable management of water resources. This paper presents the modeling approach adopted within the Life + project TRUST (Tool for Regional-scale assessment of groUndwater Storage improvement in adaptation to climaTe change) in order to provide climate change hazard scenarios for the shallow groundwater of high Veneto and Friuli Plain, Northern Italy. Given the aim to evaluate potential impacts on water quantity and quality (e.g. groundwater level variation, decrease of water availability for irrigation, variations of nitrate infiltration processes), the modeling approach integrated an ensemble of climate, hydrologic and hydrogeologic models running from the global to the regional scale. Global and regional climate models and downscaling techniques were used to make climate simulations for the reference period 1961-1990 and the projection period 2010-2100. The simulation of the recent climate was performed using observed radiative forcings, whereas the projections have been done prescribing the radiative forcings according to the IPCC A1B emission scenario. The climate simulations and the downscaling, then, provided the precipitation, temperatures and evapo-transpiration fields used for the impact analysis. Based on downscaled climate projections, 3 reference scenarios for the period 2071-2100 (i.e. the driest, the wettest and the mild year) were selected and used to run a regional geomorphoclimatic and hydrogeological model. The final output of the model ensemble produced

  16. Life cycle assessment of four municipal solid waste management scenarios in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong, Jinglan; Li, Xiangzhi; Zhaojie, Cui

    2010-11-01

    A life cycle assessment was carried out to estimate the environmental impact of municipal solid waste. Four scenarios mostly used in China were compared to assess the influence of various technologies on environment: (1) landfill, (2) incineration, (3) composting plus landfill, and (4) composting plus incineration. In all scenarios, the technologies significantly contribute to global warming and increase the adverse impact of non-carcinogens on the environment. The technologies played only a small role in the impact of carcinogens, respiratory inorganics, terrestrial ecotoxicity, and non-renewable energy. Similarly, the influence of the technologies on the way other elements affect the environment was ignorable. Specifically, the direct emissions from the operation processes involved played an important role in most scenarios except for incineration, while potential impact generated from transport, infrastructure and energy consumption were quite small. In addition, in the global warming category, highest potential impact was observed in landfill because of the direct methane gas emissions. Electricity recovery from methane gas was the key factor for reducing the potential impact of global warming. Therefore, increasing the use of methane gas to recover electricity is highly recommended to reduce the adverse impact of landfills on the environment.

  17. Scenario-based earthquake hazard and risk assessment for Baku (Azerbaijan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Babayev

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available A rapid growth of population, intensive civil and industrial building, land and water instabilities (e.g. landslides, significant underground water level fluctuations, and the lack of public awareness regarding seismic hazard contribute to the increase of vulnerability of Baku (the capital city of the Republic of Azerbaijan to earthquakes. In this study, we assess an earthquake risk in the city determined as a convolution of seismic hazard (in terms of the surface peak ground acceleration, PGA, vulnerability (due to building construction fragility, population features, the gross domestic product per capita, and landslide's occurrence, and exposure of infrastructure and critical facilities. The earthquake risk assessment provides useful information to identify the factors influencing the risk. A deterministic seismic hazard for Baku is analysed for four earthquake scenarios: near, far, local, and extreme events. The seismic hazard models demonstrate the level of ground shaking in the city: PGA high values are predicted in the southern coastal and north-eastern parts of the city and in some parts of the downtown. The PGA attains its maximal values for the local and extreme earthquake scenarios. We show that the quality of buildings and the probability of their damage, the distribution of urban population, exposure, and the pattern of peak ground acceleration contribute to the seismic risk, meanwhile the vulnerability factors play a more prominent role for all earthquake scenarios. Our results can allow elaborating strategic countermeasure plans for the earthquake risk mitigation in the Baku city.

  18. Scenario for a Short-Term Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA in Chiayi, Taiwan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chung-Han Chan

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Using seismic activity and the Meishan earthquake sequence that occurred from 1904 to 1906, a scenario for short-term probabilistic seismic hazards in the Chiayi region of Taiwan is assessed. The long-term earthquake occurrence rate in Taiwan was evaluated using a smoothing kernel. The highest seismicity rate was calculated around the Chiayi region. To consider earthquake interactions, the rate-and-state friction model was introduced to estimate the seismicity rate evolution due to the Coulomb stress change. As imparted by the 1904 Touliu earthquake, stress changes near the 1906 Meishan and Yangshuigang epicenters was higher than the magnitude of tidal triggering. With regard to the impact of the Meishan earthquake, the region close to the Yangshuigang earthquake epicenter had a +0.75 bar stress increase. The results indicated significant interaction between the three damage events. Considering the path and site effect using ground motion prediction equations, a probabilistic seismic hazard in the form of a hazard evolution and a hazard map was assessed. A significant elevation in hazards following the three earthquakes in the sequence was determined. The results illustrate a possible scenario for seismic hazards in the Chiayi region which may take place repeatly in the future. Such scenario provides essential information on earthquake preparation, devastation estimations, emergency sheltering, utility restoration, and structure reconstruction.

  19. Scenarios of Future Water use on Mediterranean Islands based on an Integrated Assessment of Water Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lange, M. A.

    2006-12-01

    The availability of water in sufficient quantities and adequate quality presents considerable problems on Mediterranean islands. Because of their isolation and thus the impossibility to draw on more distant or more divers aquifers, they rely entirely on precipitation as natural replenishing mechanism. Recent observations indicate decreasing precipitation, increasing evaporation and steadily growing demand for water on the islands. Future climate change will exacerbate this problem, thus increasing the already pertinent vulnerability to droughts. Responsible planning of water management strategies requires scenarios of future supply and demand through an integrated assessment including climate scenarios based on regional climate modeling as well as scenarios on changes in societal and economical determinants of water demand. Constructing such strategies necessitates a thorough understanding about the interdependencies and feedbacks between physical/hydrological and socio-economic determinants of water balances on an island. This has to be based on a solid understanding of past and present developments of these drivers. In the framework of the EU-funded MEDIS project (Towards sustainable water use on Mediterranean Islands: addressing conflicting demands and varying hydrological, social and economic conditions, EVK1-CT-2001-00092), detailed investigations on present vulnerabilities and adaptation strategies to droughts have been carried out on Mallorca, Corsica, Sicily, Crete and Cyprus. This was based on an interdisciplinary study design including hydrological, geophysical, agricultural-, social and political sciences investigations. A central element of the study has been the close interaction with stakeholders on the islands and their contribution to strategy formulation. An important result has been a specification of vulnerability components including: a physical/environmental-, an economical/regulatory- and a social/institutional/political component. Their

  20. Assessing Interventions to Manage West Nile Virus Using Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis with Risk Scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hongoh, Valerie; Campagna, Céline; Panic, Mirna; Samuel, Onil; Gosselin, Pierre; Waaub, Jean-Philippe; Ravel, André; Samoura, Karim; Michel, Pascal

    2016-01-01

    The recent emergence of West Nile virus (WNV) in North America highlights vulnerability to climate sensitive diseases and stresses the importance of preventive efforts to reduce their public health impact. Effective prevention involves reducing environmental risk of exposure and increasing adoption of preventive behaviours, both of which depend on knowledge and acceptance of such measures. When making operational decisions about disease prevention and control, public health must take into account a wide range of operational, environmental, social and economic considerations in addition to intervention effectiveness. The current study aimed to identify, assess and rank possible risk reduction measures taking into account a broad set of criteria and perspectives applicable to the management of WNV in Quebec under increasing transmission risk scenarios, some of which may be related to ongoing warming in higher-latitude regions. A participatory approach was used to collect information on categories of concern to relevant stakeholders with respect to WNV prevention and control. Multi-criteria decision analysis was applied to examine stakeholder perspectives and their effect on strategy rankings under increasing transmission risk scenarios. Twenty-three preventive interventions were retained for evaluation using eighteen criteria identified by stakeholders. Combined evaluations revealed that, at an individual-level, inspecting window screen integrity, wearing light colored, long clothing, eliminating peridomestic larval sites and reducing outdoor activities at peak times were top interventions under six WNV transmission scenarios. At a regional-level, the use of larvicides was a preferred strategy in five out of six scenarios, while use of adulticides and dissemination of sterile male mosquitoes were found to be among the least favoured interventions in almost all scenarios. Our findings suggest that continued public health efforts aimed at reinforcing individual

  1. The development of climatic scenarios for assessing impacts of climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carter, T.; Tuomenvirta, H. [Finnish Meteorological Inst., Helsinki (Finland); Posch, M. [National Inst. of Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven (Netherlands)

    1995-12-31

    There is a growing recognition that mitigation measures for limiting future global changes in climate due to the enhanced greenhouse effect are unlikely to prevent some changes from occurring. Thus, if climate changes appear to be unavoidable, there is an increased need to evaluate their likely impacts on natural systems and human activities. Most impacts of climate change need to be examined at a regional scale, and their assessment requires up-to-date information on future regional climate changes. Unfortunately, accurate predictions of regional climate are not yet available. Instead, it is customary to construct climatic scenarios, which are plausible representations of future climate based on the best available information. This presentation outlines seven principles of climatic scenario development for impact studies, briefly describing some of the strengths and weaknesses of available methods and then illustrating one approach adopted in Finland

  2. Earthquake Scenario for the City of Gyumri Including Seismic Hazard and Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Babayan, H.; Karakhanyan, A.; Arakelyan, A.; Avanesyan, M.; Durgaryan, R.; Babayan, S.; Gevorgyan, M.; Hovhannisyan, G.

    2012-12-01

    The city of Gyumri situated in the north of Armenia falls in the zone of active Akhouryan Fault and during the 20th century it suffered from catastrophic earthquakes twice. The Mw=6.2 earthquake in 1926 and the Spitak earthquake with a magnitude of 6.9 in 1988 killed more than 20,000 people in total. Therefore, current seismic hazard and risk assessment for the city are of great importance. It is also very important to answer how properly the lessons of the Spitak earthquake have been learned for this largest city in the Spitak earthquake disaster zone, what the real level of seismic risk is now, and what losses the city could expect if a similar or stronger earthquake occurred nowadays. For this purposes, the most probable earthquakes scenarios have been developed by means of comprehensive assessment of seismic hazard and risk, The conducted study helped to produce the actual pattern of effects caused by the Spitak earthquake in terms of losses and damage caused to diverse types of buildings and thus enabled correct selection of required parameter values to estimate vulnerability of the structures and test the ELER software package (designated for estimation of losses and damages developed in the framework of GEM-EMME Project). The work was realized by the following sequence of steps: probabilistic and deterministic assessment of seismic hazard for the Gyumri city region - choice of earthquake scenario (based on the disaggregation and seismotectonic model) - risk estimation for each selected earthquake scenario. In the framework of this study, different parameters of seismic hazard such as peak ground acceleration and spectral acceleration were investigated and mapped, and soil model for city was developed. Subsequently, these maps were used as the basic inputs to assess the expected life, building, and lifeline losses. The presented work was realized with the financial support of UNDP. The results of the Project will serve the basis for national and local

  3. The reference energy scenario of the DGEMP for 2030,there's many a slip twixt the cup and the lip; Le scenario energetique de reference de la DGEMP pour 2030, ou il y a loin de la coupe aux levres

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Acket, C.; Nifenecker, H

    2008-05-15

    The authors discuss the energy reference scenario for 2030, proposed by the DGEMP. This scenario is published every 4 years. It represents the french energy situation in 2030, if no new energy policy was decided, in particularly no new measure from the Grenelle of the environment. The scenario supposes also no energy crisis in the fossil fuels supply and the fuels prices. In this topic, the objective of a contribution of 20% of renewable energies in the final energy consumption, seems possible. (A.L.B.)

  4. A proposal for a new scenario framework to support research and assessment in different climate research communities

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vuuren, D.P. van; Riahi, K.; Moss, R.; Edmonds, J.; Thomson, A.; Nakicenovic, N.; Kram, T.; Berkhout, F.; Swart, R.; Janetos, A.; Rose, S.K.; Arnell, N.

    2012-01-01

    In this paper, we propose a scenario framework that could provide a scenario " thread" through the different climate research communities (climate change - vulnerability, impact, and adaptation - and mitigation) in order to support assessment of mitigation and adaptation strategies and climate impac

  5. A proposal for a new scenario framework to support research and assessment in different climate research communities

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vuuren, van D.P.; Riahi, K.; Moss, R.; Edmonds, J.; Thomson, A.; Nakicenovic, N.; Kram, T.; Berkhout, F.; Swart, R.J.; Janetos, A.; Rose, S.K.; Arnell, N.

    2012-01-01

    In this paper, we propose a scenario framework that could provide a scenario "thread" through the different climate research communities (climate change - vulnerability, impact, and adaptation - and mitigation) in order to support assessment of mitigation and adaptation strategies and climate impact

  6. Life cycle assessment and residue leaching: The importance of parameter, scenario and leaching data selection

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Allegrini, E., E-mail: elia@env.dtu.dk [Technical University of Denmark, Department of Environmental Engineering, Building 115, 2800 Lyngby (Denmark); Butera, S. [Technical University of Denmark, Department of Environmental Engineering, Building 115, 2800 Lyngby (Denmark); Kosson, D.S. [Vanderbilt University, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Box 1831 Station B, Nashville, TN 37235 (United States); Van Zomeren, A. [Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands (ECN), Department of Environmental Risk Assessment, P.O. Box 1, 1755 ZG Petten (Netherlands); Van der Sloot, H.A. [Hans van der Sloot Consultancy, Dorpsstraat 216, 1721 BV Langedijk (Netherlands); Astrup, T.F. [Technical University of Denmark, Department of Environmental Engineering, Building 115, 2800 Lyngby (Denmark)

    2015-04-15

    Highlights: • Relevance of metal leaching in waste management system LCAs was assessed. • Toxic impacts from leaching could not be disregarded. • Uncertainty of toxicity, due to background activities, determines LCA outcomes. • Parameters such as pH and L/S affect LCA results. • Data modelling consistency and coverage within an LCA are crucial. - Abstract: Residues from industrial processes and waste management systems (WMSs) have been increasingly reutilised, leading to landfilling rate reductions and the optimisation of mineral resource utilisation in society. Life cycle assessment (LCA) is a holistic methodology allowing for the analysis of systems and products and can be applied to waste management systems to identify environmental benefits and critical aspects thereof. From an LCA perspective, residue utilisation provides benefits such as avoiding the production and depletion of primary materials, but it can lead to environmental burdens, due to the potential leaching of toxic substances. In waste LCA studies where residue utilisation is included, leaching has generally been neglected. In this study, municipal solid waste incineration bottom ash (MSWI BA) was used as a case study into three LCA scenarios having different system boundaries. The importance of data quality and parameter selection in the overall LCA results was evaluated, and an innovative method to assess metal transport into the environment was applied, in order to determine emissions to the soil and water compartments for use in an LCA. It was found that toxic impacts as a result of leaching were dominant in systems including only MSWI BA utilisation, while leaching appeared negligible in larger scenarios including the entire waste system. However, leaching could not be disregarded a priori, due to large uncertainties characterising other activities in the scenario (e.g. electricity production). Based on the analysis of relevant parameters relative to leaching, and on general results

  7. Modelling regional land change scenarios to assess land abandonment and reforestation dynamics in the Pyrenees (France)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vacquie, Laure; Houet, Thomas; Sohl, Terry L.; Reker, Ryan; Sayler, Kristi L.

    2015-01-01

    Over the last decades and centuries, European mountain landscapes have experienced substantial transformations. Natural and anthropogenic LULC changes (land use and land cover changes), especially agro-pastoral activities, have directly influenced the spatial organization and composition of European mountain landscapes. For the past sixty years, natural reforestation has been occurring due to a decline in both agricultural production activities and rural population. Stakeholders, to better anticipate future changes, need spatially and temporally explicit models to identify areas at risk of land change and possible abandonment. This paper presents an integrated approach combining forecasting scenarios and a LULC changes simulation model to assess where LULC changes may occur in the Pyrenees Mountains, based on historical LULC trends and a range of future socio-economic drivers. The proposed methodology considers local specificities of the Pyrenean valleys, sub-regional climate and topographical properties, and regional economic policies. Results indicate that some regions are projected to face strong abandonment, regardless of the scenario conditions. Overall, high rates of change are associated with administrative regions where land productivity is highly dependent on socio-economic drivers and climatic and environmental conditions limit intensive (agricultural and/or pastoral) production and profitability. The combination of the results for the four scenarios allows assessments of where encroachment (e.g. colonization by shrublands) and reforestation are the most probable. This assessment intends to provide insight into the potential future development of the Pyrenees to help identify areas that are the most sensitive to change and to guide decision makers to help their management decisions.

  8. Spatial uncertainty assessment in modelling reference evapotranspiration at regional scale

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Buttafuoco

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Evapotranspiration is one of the major components of the water balance and has been identified as a key factor in hydrological modelling. For this reason, several methods have been developed to calculate the reference evapotranspiration (ET0. In modelling reference evapotranspiration it is inevitable that both model and data input will present some uncertainty. Whatever model is used, the errors in the input will propagate to the output of the calculated ET0. Neglecting information about estimation uncertainty, however, may lead to improper decision-making and water resources management. One geostatistical approach to spatial analysis is stochastic simulation, which draws alternative and equally probable, realizations of a regionalized variable. Differences between the realizations provide a measure of spatial uncertainty and allow to carry out an error propagation analysis. Among the evapotranspiration models, the Hargreaves-Samani model was used.

    The aim of this paper was to assess spatial uncertainty of a monthly reference evapotranspiration model resulting from the uncertainties in the input attributes (mainly temperature at regional scale. A case study was presented for Calabria region (southern Italy. Temperature data were jointly simulated by conditional turning bands simulation with elevation as external drift and 500 realizations were generated.

    The ET0 was then estimated for each set of the 500 realizations of the input variables, and the ensemble of the model outputs was used to infer the reference evapotranspiration probability distribution function. This approach allowed to delineate the areas characterized by greater uncertainty, to improve supplementary sampling strategies and ET0 value predictions.

  9. No-reference face image assessment based on deep features

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Guirong; Xu, Yi; Lan, Jinpeng

    2016-09-01

    Face quality assessment is important to improve the performance of face recognition system. For instance, it is required to select images of good quality to improve recognition rate for the person of interest. Current methods mostly depend on traditional image assessment, which use prior knowledge of human vision system. As a result, the quality score of face images shows consistency with human vision perception but deviates from the processing procedure of a real face recognition system. It is the fact that the state-of-art face recognition systems are all built on deep neural networks. Naturally, it is expected to propose an efficient quality scoring method of face images, which should show high consistency with the recognition rate of face images from current face recognition systems. This paper proposes a non-reference face image assessment algorithm based on the deep features, which is capable of predicting the recognition rate of face images. The proposed face image assessment algorithm provides a promising tool to filter out the good input images for the real face recognition system to achieve high recognition rate.

  10. Scenario-neutral Food Security Risk Assessment: A livestock Heat Stress Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Broman, D.; Rajagopalan, B.; Hopson, T. M.

    2015-12-01

    Food security risk assessments can provide decision-makers with actionable information to identify critical system limitations, and alternatives to mitigate the impacts of future conditions. The majority of current risk assessments have been scenario-led and results are limited by the scenarios - selected future states of the world's climate system and socioeconomic factors. A generic scenario-neutral framework for food security risk assessments is presented here that uses plausible states of the world without initially assigning likelihoods. Measures of system vulnerabilities are identified and system risk is assessed for these states. This framework has benefited greatly by research in the water and natural resource fields to adapt their planning to provide better risk assessments. To illustrate the utility of this framework we develop a case study using livestock heat stress risk within the pastoral system of West Africa. Heat stress can have a major impact not only on livestock owners, but on the greater food production system, decreasing livestock growth, milk production, and reproduction, and in severe cases, death. A heat stress index calculated from daily weather is used as a vulnerability measure and is computed from historic daily weather data at several locations in the study region. To generate plausible states, a stochastic weather generator is developed to generate synthetic weather sequences at each location, consistent with the seasonal climate. A spatial model of monthly and seasonal heat stress provide projections of current and future livestock heat stress measures across the study region, and can incorporate in seasonal climate and other external covariates. These models, when linked with empirical thresholds of heat stress risk for specific breeds offer decision-makers with actionable information for use in near-term warning systems as well as for future planning. Future assessment can indicate under which states livestock are at greatest risk

  11. The Effects on Tsunami Hazard Assessment in Chile of Assuming Earthquake Scenarios with Spatially Uniform Slip

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carvajal, Matías; Gubler, Alejandra

    2016-12-01

    We investigated the effect that along-dip slip distribution has on the near-shore tsunami amplitudes and on coastal land-level changes in the region of central Chile (29°-37°S). Here and all along the Chilean megathrust, the seismogenic zone extends beneath dry land, and thus, tsunami generation and propagation is limited to its seaward portion, where the sensitivity of the initial tsunami waveform to dislocation model inputs, such as slip distribution, is greater. We considered four distributions of earthquake slip in the dip direction, including a spatially uniform slip source and three others with typical bell-shaped slip patterns that differ in the depth range of slip concentration. We found that a uniform slip scenario predicts much lower tsunami amplitudes and generally less coastal subsidence than scenarios that assume bell-shaped distributions of slip. Although the finding that uniform slip scenarios underestimate tsunami amplitudes is not new, it has been largely ignored for tsunami hazard assessment in Chile. Our simulations results also suggest that uniform slip scenarios tend to predict later arrival times of the leading wave than bell-shaped sources. The time occurrence of the largest wave at a specific site is also dependent on how the slip is distributed in the dip direction; however, other factors, such as local bathymetric configurations and standing edge waves, are also expected to play a role. Arrival time differences are especially critical in Chile, where tsunamis arrive earlier than elsewhere. We believe that the results of this study will be useful to both public and private organizations for mapping tsunami hazard in coastal areas along the Chilean coast, and, therefore, help reduce the risk of loss and damage caused by future tsunamis.

  12. Sustainability Assessment for Agriculture Scenarios in Europe's Mountain Areas: Lessons from Six Study Areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Partidário, Maria Rosário; Sheate, William R.; Bina, Olivia; Byron, Helen; Augusto, Bernardo

    2009-01-01

    Sustainability assessment (SA) is a holistic and long-range strategic instrument capable of assisting policy-making in electing, and deciding upon, future development priorities. The outcomes of an SA process become more relevant and strengthened when conducted with multi-stakeholder engagement, which provides for multiple dialogues and perspectives. This was the object of research of the SA team in the context of BioScene ( Scenarios for Reconciling Biodiversity Conservation with Declining Agriculture Use in Mountain Areas in Europe), a three-year project (2002-2005) funded by the European Union 5th Framework Program, which aimed to investigate the implications of agricultural restructuring and decline for biodiversity conservation in the mountain areas of Europe, using three distinct methodological streams: the ecological, the socio-economic, and the SA approaches. The SA approach drew on the previous two to assess the importance for biodiversity management of different scenarios of agri-environmental change and rural policy in six countries (France, Greece, Norway, Slovakia, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom), develop causal chains, include stakeholder views, and identify potential contributions for, or conflicts with, sustainability. This article tells how SA was used, what sustainability meant in each study area through different objectives of sustainability considered, discusses the methods used in SA, and the benefits arising. The SA was conducted by a team independent of any study area, who developed and oversaw the application of the SA methodology, assisting national teams, and developing a cross-country understanding of the sustainability of proposed scenarios in the different geographical and social contexts, and their implications for policy-making. Finally, it reflects on the persistent challenges of interdisciplinary research, compounded by multi-cultural teams, and concludes on the BioScene’s lessons for the further development and application

  13. The role of the uncertainty in assessing future scenarios of water shortage in alluvial aquifers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romano, Emanuele; Camici, Stefania; Brocca, Luca; Moramarco, Tommaso; Guyennon, Nicolas; Preziosi, Elisabetta

    2015-04-01

    There are many evidences that the combined effects of variations in precipitation and temperature due to climate change can result in a significant change of the recharge to groundwater at different time scales. A possible reduction of effective infiltration can result in a significant decrease, temporary or permanent, of the availability of the resource and, consequently, the sustainable pumping rate should be reassessed. In addition to this, one should also consider the so called indirect impacts of climate change, resulting from human intervention (e.g. augmentation of abstractions) which are feared to be even more important than the direct ones in the medium term: thus, a possible increase of episodes of shortage (i.e. the inability of the groundwater system to completely supply the water demand) can result both from change in the climate forcing and change in the demand. In order to assess future scenarios of water shortage a modelling chain is often used. It includes: 1) the use of General Circulation Models to estimate changes in temperature and precipitation; 2) downscaling procedures to match modeling scenarios to the observed meteorological time series; 3) soil-atmosphere modelling to estimate the time variation of the recharge to the aquifer; 4) groundwater flow models to simulate the water budget and piezometric head evolution; 5) future scenarios of groundwater quantitative status that include scenarios of demand variation. It is well known that each of these processing steps is affected by an intrinsic uncertainty that propagates through the whole chain leading to a final uncertainty on the piezometric head scenarios. The estimate of such an uncertainty is a key point for a correct management of groundwater resources, in case of water shortage due to prolonged droughts as well as for planning purposes. This study analyzes the uncertainty of the processing chain from GCM scenarios to its impact on an alluvial aquifer in terms of exploitation

  14. Loose and Tight GNSS/INS Integrations: Comparison of Performance Assessed in Real Urban Scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Falco, Gianluca; Pini, Marco; Marucco, Gianluca

    2017-01-29

    Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSSs) remain the principal mean of positioning in many applications and systems, but in several types of environment, the performance of standalone receivers is degraded. Although many works show the benefits of the integration between GNSS and Inertial Navigation Systems (INSs), tightly-coupled architectures are mainly implemented in professional devices and are based on high-grade Inertial Measurement Units (IMUs). This paper investigates the performance improvements enabled by the tight integration, using low-cost sensors and a mass-market GNSS receiver. Performance is assessed through a series of tests carried out in real urban scenarios and is compared against commercial modules, operating in standalone mode or featuring loosely-coupled integrations. The paper describes the developed tight-integration algorithms with a terse mathematical model and assesses their efficacy from a practical perspective.

  15. Reference material systems: a sourcebook for material assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bhagat, N. (ed.)

    1976-12-01

    A reference set of data related to material systems and a framework for carrying out the material technologies assessment are presented. While the bulk of renewables have been considered in this report, the nonrenewable materials dealt with here include structural materials only, such as steel, aluminum, cement and concrete, and bricks. The complete data set is supposed to include material flows, energy requirements, capital and labor inputs, and environmental effects for each process that a resource must go through to become a useful material for an end use. Although effort has been made to obtain as much information as possible, considerable gaps in data, apparent throughout this report, could not be avoided. A new material technology can be evaluated by substituting that technology for appropriate elements of the reference materials system and calculating the net change in material resource, energy, capital and labor requirements, and environmental impacts. This combination of information thus serves as a means of evaluating the potential benefits to be gained by research in various material technologies.

  16. Reimbursement of pharmaceuticals: reference pricing versus health technology assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drummond, Michael; Jönsson, Bengt; Rutten, Frans; Stargardt, Tom

    2011-06-01

    Reference pricing and health technology assessment are policies commonly applied in order to obtain more value for money from pharmaceuticals. This study focussed on decisions about the initial price and reimbursement status of innovative drugs and discussed the consequences for market access and cost. Four countries were studied: Germany, The Netherlands, Sweden and the United Kingdom. These countries have operated one, or both, of the two policies at certain points in time, sometimes in parallel. Drugs in four groups were considered: cholesterol-lowering agents, insulin analogues, biologic drugs for rheumatoid arthritis and "atypical" drugs for schizophrenia. Compared with HTA, reference pricing is a relatively blunt instrument for obtaining value for money from pharmaceuticals. Thus, its role in making reimbursement decisions should be limited to drugs which are therapeutically equivalent. HTA is a superior strategy for obtaining value for money because it addresses not only price but also the appropriate indications for the use of the drug and the relation between additional value and additional costs. However, given the relatively higher costs of conducting HTAs, the most efficient approach might be a combination of both policies.

  17. AN ASSESSMENT OF CITIZEN CONTRIBUTED GROUND REFERENCE DATA FOR LAND COVER MAP ACCURACY ASSESSMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. M. Foody

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available It is now widely accepted that an accuracy assessment should be part of a thematic mapping programme. Authoritative good or best practices for accuracy assessment have been defined but are often impractical to implement. Key reasons for this situation are linked to the ground reference data used in the accuracy assessment. Typically, it is a challenge to acquire a large sample of high quality reference cases in accordance to desired sampling designs specified as conforming to good practice and the data collected are normally to some degree imperfect limiting their value to an accuracy assessment which implicitly assumes the use of a gold standard reference. Citizen sensors have great potential to aid aspects of accuracy assessment. In particular, they may be able to act as a source of ground reference data that may, for example, reduce sample size problems but concerns with data quality remain. The relative strengths and limitations of citizen contributed data for accuracy assessment are reviewed in the context of the authoritative good practices defined for studies of land cover by remote sensing. The article will highlight some of the ways that citizen contributed data have been used in accuracy assessment as well as some of the problems that require further attention, and indicate some of the potential ways forward in the future.

  18. Self-assessment in cancer patients referred to palliative care

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Strömgren, Annette S; Goldschmidt, Dorthe; Groenvold, Mogens

    2002-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Research in palliative care is considered difficult due to the poor health of patients. However, patient-provided data are essential for a thorough description of patient symptomatology and for the evaluation of care. METHODS: The authors examined the feasibility of a questionnaire......-based study using the European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer quality-of-life instrument EORTC QLQ-C30, the Edmonton Symptom Assessment System (ESAS), and the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS) in cancer patients who were receiving palliative care. This report describes...... the symptomatology of participating patients and examines differences in symptomatology between patients in three palliative care functions: inpatient, outpatient, and palliative home care. RESULTS: Of 267 eligible patients who were referred to a department of palliative medicine, initial self...

  19. New Approaches to Transport Project Assessment: Reference Scenario Forecasting and Quantitative Risk Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang

    2010-01-01

    This presentation sets out a new methodology for examining the uncertainties relating to transport decision making based on infrastructure appraisals. Traditional transport infrastructure projects are based upon cost-benefit analyses in order to appraise the projects feasibility. Recent research ....... Additionally, the handling of uncertainties is supplemented by making use of the principle of Optimism Bias, which depicts the historical tendency of overestimating transport related benefits (user demands i.e. travel time savings) and underestimating investment costs.......This presentation sets out a new methodology for examining the uncertainties relating to transport decision making based on infrastructure appraisals. Traditional transport infrastructure projects are based upon cost-benefit analyses in order to appraise the projects feasibility. Recent research...... however has proved that the point estimates derived from such analyses are embedded with a large degree of uncertainty. Thus, a new scheme was proposed in terms of applying quantitative risk analysis (QRA) and Monte Carlo simulation in order to represent the uncertainties within the cost-benefit analysis...

  20. AN ENVIRON-ECONOMICAL MATHEMATICAL MODELING OF WATER POLLUTION IMPACT ASSESSMENT IN REFERENCE TO INDIAN SCENARIO

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hemant PATHAK

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the application of the mathematical modeling to such a specific area as environ-economical interaction in prospect of big countries like India. A model of mutual interaction of dirty drinking water resulting water borne diseases, badly affected economy is proposed. For the description of some of these models illustrates drinking water resources, incapable municipal water treatment consequently expansion of diseases, World Bank loan, affected biggest labour forces (mankind and ultimate results in the form of decrease in GDP. These mathematical models may be used in the solving of similar type problems exist in south and eastern Asian economies.

  1. Particle Reduction Strategies - PAREST. Emissions in PAREST reference scenario 2005-2020; Strategien zur Verminderung der Feinstaubbelastung - PAREST. Emissionen im PAREST-Referenzszenario 2005-2020

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Joerss, Wolfram [Institut fuer Zukunftsstudien und Technologiebewertung gGmbH (IZT), Berlin (Germany); Kugler, Ulrike; Theloke, Jochen [Stuttgart Univ. (Germany). Inst. fuer Energiewirtschaft und Rationelle Energieanwendung (IER)

    2013-06-15

    In the research project PAREST emission scenarios to 2020 for particulate matter (PM{sub 10} und PM{sub 2,5}), and aerosol precursors SO{sub 2}, NO{sub x}, NH{sub 3} and NMVOC were prepared for Germany and Europe, mitigation measures evaluated and the results used to model the PM pollution load for Germany. In this sub-report of PAREST Germany's aggregate emissions totals of the considered pollutants are presented in the reference scenario. [German] Im Forschungsvorhaben PAREST wurden Emissionsszenarien bis 2020 fuer Feinstaub (PM{sub 10} und PM{sub 2,5}) und die Aerosol-Vorlaeufersubstanzen SO{sub 2}, NO{sub x}, NH{sub 3} und NMVOC fuer Deutschland und Europa erstellt, Minderungsmassnahmen evaluiert und daraus die PM-Immissionsbelastung fuer Deutschland modelliert. In diesem Teilbericht zu PAREST werden die deutschlandweit aggregierten Emissionssummen der betrachteten Schadstoffe im Referenzszenario vorgestellt.

  2. Final report: Task 4a.2 20% wind scenario assessment of electric grid operational features

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Toole, Gasper L. [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2009-01-01

    Wind integration modeling in electricity generation capacity expansion models is important in that these models are often used to inform political or managerial decisions. Poor representation of wind technology leads to under-estimation of wind's contribution to future energy scenarios which may hamper growth of the industry. The NREL's Wind Energy Deployment System (WinDS) model provides the most detailed representation of geographically disperse renewable resources and the optimization of transmission expansion to access these resources. Because WinDS was selected as the primary modeling tool for the 20% Wind Energy by 2030 study, it is the ideal tool for supplemental studies of the transmission expansion results. However, as the wind industry grows and knowledge related to the wind resource and integration of wind energy into the electric system develops, the WinDS model must be continually improved through additional data and innovative algorithms to capture the primary effects of variable wind generation. The detailed representation of wind technology in the WinDS model can be used to provide improvements to the simplified representation of wind technology in other capacity expansion models. This task did not employ the WinDS model, but builds from it and its results. Task 4a.2 provides an assessment of the electric grid operational features of the 20% Wind scenario and was conducted using power flow models accepted by the utility industry. Tasks 2 provides information regarding the physical flow of electricity on the electric grid which is a critical aspect of infrastructure expansion scenarios. Expanding transmission infrastructure to access remote wind resource in a physically realizable way is essential to achieving 20% wind energy by 2030.

  3. Life Cycle Assessment of Biogas Production from Marine Macroalgae: a Latvian Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pilicka, Iluta; Blumberga, Dagnija; Romagnoli, Francesco

    2011-01-01

    There is potential environmental benefit to be gained from the use of algae because of their ability to fix CO2, no need for direct land use and utilization of bio-waste (rich in potassium, phosphate and nitrogen based compounds) as a nutrients. The aim of the research is to assess the impact of biogas production and the final use in a cogeneration unit system from a Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) in comparison with a similar reference system using a non-renewable source (e.g. natural gas). The paper is intended to be a preliminary study for understanding the implementation of this novel technology in a Latvian context.

  4. Knowledge Brokerage for Impact Assessment of Land Use Scenarios in Inner Mongolia, China: Extending and Testing the FoPIA Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hannes J. König

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available While land serves numerous societal functions and contributes to sustainable development, it is often unclear how these functions are affected by political decisions and common drivers of land use change, such as economic development, climate change and demographic change. This study evaluates alternative land use scenarios in reference to a rural region of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region (China, where various processes and decisions have historically triggered unsustainable development. The scientifically tested “Framework for Participatory Impact Assessment (FoPIA” method is developed further to address specific features of the case study region, and its function as a knowledge-brokerage (KB tool is evaluated. Three scenarios are developed and analysed in expert workshops. “Land intensification: Agriculture” and “Land intensification: Mining” scenarios are found to have mainly negative environmental and social effects and positive economic impacts, while the “Environmental conservation and tourism” scenario is found to more positively affect all three sustainability dimensions. Assessments of methodological phases show that the FoPIA primarily serves to establish the KB process and that the framework particularly benefits from early examinations of scientific results by policy makers.

  5. From Seismic Scenarios to Earthquake Risk Assessment: A Case Study for Iquique, Chile.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aguirre, P.; Fortuno, C.; Martin, J. C. D. L. L.; Vasquez, J.

    2015-12-01

    Iquique is a strategic city and economic center in northern Chile, and is located in a large seismic gap where a megathrust earthquake and tsunami is expected. Although it was hit by a Mw 8.2 earthquake on April 1st 2014, which caused moderate damage, geophysical evidence still suggests that there is potential for a larger event, so a thorough risk assessment is key to understand the physical, social, and economic effects of such potential event, and devise appropriate mitigation plans. Hence, Iquique has been selected as a prime study case for the implementation of a risk assessment platform in Chile. Our study integrates research on three main elements of risk calculations: hazard evaluation, exposure model, and physical vulnerabilities. To characterize the hazard field, a set of synthetic seismic scenarios have been developed based on plate interlocking and the residual slip potential that results from subtracting the slip occurred during the April 1st 2014 rupture fault mechanism, obtained using InSAR+GPS inversion. Additional scenarios were developed based of the fault rupture model of the Maule 2010 Mw 8.8 earthquake and on the local plate locking models in northern Chile. These rupture models define a collection of possible realizations of earthquake geometries parameterized in terms of critical variables like slip magnitude, rise time, mean propagation velocity, directivity, and other, which are propagated to obtain a hazard map for Iquique (e.g. PGA, PGV, PDG). Furthermore, a large body of public and local data was used to construct a detailed exposure model for Iquique, including aggregated building count, demographics, essential facilities, and lifelines. This model together with the PGA maps for the April 1st 2014 earthquake are used to calibrate HAZUS outputs against observed damage, and adjust the fragility curves of physical systems according to more detailed analyses of typical Chilean building types and their structural properties, plus historical

  6. Development of sea level rise scenarios for climate change assessments of the Mekong Delta, Vietnam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doyle, Thomas W.; Day, Richard H.; Michot, Thomas C.

    2010-01-01

    Rising sea level poses critical ecological and economical consequences for the low-lying megadeltas of the world where dependent populations and agriculture are at risk. The Mekong Delta of Vietnam is one of many deltas that are especially vulnerable because much of the land surface is below mean sea level and because there is a lack of coastal barrier protection. Food security related to rice and shrimp farming in the Mekong Delta is currently under threat from saltwater intrusion, relative sea level rise, and storm surge potential. Understanding the degree of potential change in sea level under climate change is needed to undertake regional assessments of potential impacts and to formulate adaptation strategies. This report provides constructed time series of potential sea level rise scenarios for the Mekong Delta region by incorporating (1) aspects of observed intra- and inter-annual sea level variability from tide records and (2) projected estimates for different rates of regional subsidence and accelerated eustacy through the year 2100 corresponding with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate models and emission scenarios.

  7. Dynamic EROI Assessment of the IPCC 21st Century Electricity Production Scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charles Neumeyer

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The Energy Return on Investment (EROI is an important measure of the energy gain of an electrical power generating facility that is typically evaluated based on the life cycle energy balance of a single facility. The EROI concept can be extended to cover a collection of facilities that comprise a complete power system and used to assess the expansion and evolution of a power system as it transitions from one portfolio mix of technologies to another over time. In this study we develop a dynamic EROI model that simulates the evolution of a power system and we perform an EROI simulation of one of the electricity production scenarios developed under the auspices of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC covering the global supply of electricity in the 21st century. Our analytic tool provides the means for evaluation of dynamic EROI based on arbitrary time-dependent demand scenarios by modeling the required expansion of power generation, including the plowback needed for new construction and to replace facilities as they are retired. The results provide insight into the level of installed and delivered power, above and beyond basic consumer demand, that is required to support construction during expansion, as well as the supplementary power that may be required if plowback constraints are imposed. In addition, sensitivity to EROI parameters, and the impact of energy storage efficiency are addressed.

  8. Climate change impact and adaptation assessment on food consumption utilizing a new scenario framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hasegawa, Tomoko; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Shin, Yonghee; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Masui, Toshihiko; Tanaka, Akemi

    2014-01-01

    We assessed the impacts of climate change and agricultural autonomous adaptation measures (changes in crop variety and planting dates) on food consumption and risk of hunger considering uncertainties in socioeconomic and climate conditions by using a new scenario framework. We combined a global computable general equilibrium model and a crop model (M-GAEZ), and estimated the impacts through 2050 based on future assumptions of socioeconomic and climate conditions. We used three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways as future population and gross domestic products, four Representative Concentration Pathways as a greenhouse gas emissions constraint, and eight General Circulation Models to estimate climate conditions. We found that (i) the adaptation measures are expected to significantly lower the risk of hunger resulting from climate change under various socioeconomic and climate conditions. (ii) population and economic development had a greater impact than climate conditions for risk of hunger at least throughout 2050, but climate change was projected to have notable impacts, even in the strong emission mitigation scenarios. (iii) The impact on hunger risk varied across regions because levels of calorie intake, climate change impacts and land scarcity varied by region.

  9. Socio-economic scenario development for the assessment of climate change impacts on agricultural land use: a pairwise comparison approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Abildtrup, Jens; Audsley, E.; Fekete-Farkas, M.;

    2006-01-01

    -economic scenarios that are consistent with climate change scenarios used in climate impact studies. Furthermore, the pairwise comparison approach developed by Saaty [Saaty, T.L., 1980. The Analytic Hierarchy Process. McGraw Hill, New York] provides a useful tool for the quantification from narrative storylines......Assessment of the vulnerability of agriculture to climate change is strongly dependent on concurrent changes in socio-economic development pathways. This paper presents an integrated approach to the construction of socio-economic scenarios required for the analysis of climate change impacts...... on European agricultural land use. The scenarios are interpreted from the storylines described in the intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) special report on emission scenarios (SRES), which ensures internal consistency between the evolution of socio-economics and climate change. A stepwise...

  10. Reference structures for assessment of frontal head posture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zepa, I; Huggare, J

    1998-12-01

    The aim of the study was to test (a) the validity of the supra-orbital line as a substitute for the interpupillary line, and (b) the reproducibility of two different approaches of assessing cranio- and cervico-vertical relationships on frontal cephalograms. The material consisted of natural head position frontal cephalograms of 21 healthy Finnish students and 11 Danish young adults prepared according to a method described previously, modified in the Danish sample by addition of spectacles with a wire to indicate the interpupillary line. The cephalograms were analysed manually twice by two investigators with an interval of one week. The following reference lines were selected: (1) orbital line (ORB): a tangent to the extreme cranial point on the supra-orbital margins; (2) cranial line (CR): the line drawn through crista galli and anterior nasal spine; (3) cervical line (CER): a line drawn through the midpoints of atlas (half the distance between the most median points on the tubercle of the transverse ligament), and C4 (half the distance between the most concave points of the lateral masses); (4) the main course of the upper cervical spine (SPINE): a subjective impression of the spinal inclination; (5) the interpupillary line (IP); and (6) the true vertical and horizontal lines (VER, HOR). The angles were measured to the nearest 0.5 degrees. Intra- and inter-examiner reproducibility was calculated. The supra-orbital line almost coincided with the interpupillary line as the mean inclination between the lines was only 0.5 degrees. Both intra- and inter-examiner errors were less for ORB and CER than for CR and the line indicating the main course of the upper cervical spine (SPINE). The intra-examiner reproducibility s(i) for ORB/HOR and CR/VER was 0.4 and 0.8 degrees respectively, and for CER/VER and SPINE/VER 0.8 degrees and 1.0 degrees. Based on these results, the supra-orbital line and the cervical line (defined as the mid-transversal line between the atlas and the

  11. Proposals for enhanced health risk assessment and stratification in an integrated care scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dueñas-Espín, Ivan; Vela, Emili; Pauws, Steffen; Bescos, Cristina; Cano, Isaac; Cleries, Montserrat; Contel, Joan Carles; de Manuel Keenoy, Esteban; Garcia-Aymerich, Judith; Gomez-Cabrero, David; Kaye, Rachelle; Lahr, Maarten M H; Lluch-Ariet, Magí; Moharra, Montserrat; Monterde, David; Mora, Joana; Nalin, Marco; Pavlickova, Andrea; Piera, Jordi; Ponce, Sara; Santaeugenia, Sebastià; Schonenberg, Helen; Störk, Stefan; Tegner, Jesper; Velickovski, Filip; Westerteicher, Christoph; Roca, Josep

    2016-01-01

    Objectives Population-based health risk assessment and stratification are considered highly relevant for large-scale implementation of integrated care by facilitating services design and case identification. The principal objective of the study was to analyse five health-risk assessment strategies and health indicators used in the five regions participating in the Advancing Care Coordination and Telehealth Deployment (ACT) programme (http://www.act-programme.eu). The second purpose was to elaborate on strategies toward enhanced health risk predictive modelling in the clinical scenario. Settings The five ACT regions: Scotland (UK), Basque Country (ES), Catalonia (ES), Lombardy (I) and Groningen (NL). Participants Responsible teams for regional data management in the five ACT regions. Primary and secondary outcome measures We characterised and compared risk assessment strategies among ACT regions by analysing operational health risk predictive modelling tools for population-based stratification, as well as available health indicators at regional level. The analysis of the risk assessment tool deployed in Catalonia in 2015 (GMAs, Adjusted Morbidity Groups) was used as a basis to propose how population-based analytics could contribute to clinical risk prediction. Results There was consensus on the need for a population health approach to generate health risk predictive modelling. However, this strategy was fully in place only in two ACT regions: Basque Country and Catalonia. We found marked differences among regions in health risk predictive modelling tools and health indicators, and identified key factors constraining their comparability. The research proposes means to overcome current limitations and the use of population-based health risk prediction for enhanced clinical risk assessment. Conclusions The results indicate the need for further efforts to improve both comparability and flexibility of current population-based health risk predictive modelling approaches

  12. Life cycle assessment and residue leaching: The importance of parameter, scenario and leaching data selection

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Allegrini, Elisa; Butera, Stefania; Kosson, D.S.

    2015-01-01

    , due to the potential leaching of toxic substances. In waste LCA studies where residue utilisation is included, leaching has generally been neglected. In this study, municipal solid waste incineration bottom ash (MSWI BA) was used as a case study into three LCA scenarios having different system......Residues from industrial processes and waste management systems (WMSs) have been increasingly reutilised, leading to landfilling rate reductions and the optimisation of mineral resource utilisation in society. Life cycle assessment (LCA) is a holistic methodology allowing for the analysis...... of systems and products and can be applied to waste management systems to identify environmental benefits and critical aspects thereof. From an LCA perspective, residue utilisation provides benefits such as avoiding the production and depletion of primary materials, but it can lead to environmental burdens...

  13. A web-based 3D visualisation and assessment system for urban precinct scenario modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trubka, Roman; Glackin, Stephen; Lade, Oliver; Pettit, Chris

    2016-07-01

    Recent years have seen an increasing number of spatial tools and technologies for enabling better decision-making in the urban environment. They have largely arisen because of the need for cities to be more efficiently planned to accommodate growing populations while mitigating urban sprawl, and also because of innovations in rendering data in 3D being well suited for visualising the urban built environment. In this paper we review a number of systems that are better known and more commonly used in the field of urban planning. We then introduce Envision Scenario Planner (ESP), a web-based 3D precinct geodesign, visualisation and assessment tool, developed using Agile and Co-design methods. We provide a comprehensive account of the tool, beginning with a discussion of its design and development process and concluding with an example use case and a discussion of the lessons learned in its development.

  14. Generation of Referring Expressions: Assessing the Incremental Algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Deemter, Kees; Gatt, Albert; van der Sluis, Ielka; Power, Richard

    2012-01-01

    A substantial amount of recent work in natural language generation has focused on the generation of "one-shot" referring expressions whose only aim is to identify a target referent. Dale and Reiter's Incremental Algorithm (IA) is often thought to be the best algorithm for maximizing the similarity to referring expressions produced by people. We…

  15. Public Review Draft: A Method for Assessing Carbon Stocks, Carbon Sequestration, and Greenhouse-Gas Fluxes in Ecosystems of the United States Under Present Conditions and Future Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bergamaschi, Brian A.; Bernknopf, Richard; Clow, David; Dye, Dennis; Faulkner, Stephen; Forney, William; Gleason, Robert; Hawbaker, Todd; Liu, Jinxun; Liu, Shu-Guang; Prisley, Stephen; Reed, Bradley; Reeves, Matthew; Rollins, Matthew; Sleeter, Benjamin; Sohl, Terry; Stackpoole, Sarah; Stehman, Stephen; Striegl, Robert G.; Wein, Anne; Zhu, Zhi-Liang; Zhu, Zhi-Liang

    2010-01-01

    The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA), Section 712, authorizes the U.S. Department of the Interior to develop a methodology and conduct an assessment of the Nation's ecosystems focusing on carbon stocks, carbon sequestration, and emissions of three greenhouse gases (GHGs): carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide. The major requirements include (1) an assessment of all ecosystems (terrestrial systems, such as forests, croplands, wetlands, shrub and grasslands; and aquatic ecosystems, such as rivers, lakes, and estuaries), (2) an estimation of annual potential capacities of ecosystems to increase carbon sequestration and reduce net GHG emissions in the context of mitigation strategies (including management and restoration activities), and (3) an evaluation of the effects of controlling processes, such as climate change, land use and land cover, and wildlfires. The purpose of this draft methodology for public review is to propose a technical plan to conduct the assessment. Within the methodology, the concepts of ecosystems, carbon pools, and GHG fluxes used for the assessment follow conventional definitions in use by major national and international assessment or inventory efforts. In order to estimate current ecosystem carbon stocks and GHG fluxes and to understand the potential capacity and effects of mitigation strategies, the method will use two time periods for the assessment: 2001 through 2010, which establishes a current ecosystem GHG baseline and will be used to validate the models; and 2011 through 2050, which will be used to assess future potential conditions based on a set of projected scenarios. The scenario framework is constructed using storylines of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report Emission Scenarios (SRES), along with initial reference land-use and land-cover (LULC) and land-management scenarios. An additional three LULC and land-management mitigation scenarios will be constructed for each

  16. Environmental assessment: Reference repository location, Hanford site, Washington

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    none,

    1986-05-01

    In February 1983, the US Department of Energy (DOE) identified a reference repository location at the Hanford Site in Washington as one of the nine potentially acceptable sites for a mined geologic repository for spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste. The site is in the Columbia Plateau, which is one of five distinct geohydrologic settings considered for the first repository. To determine their suitability, the Hanford site and the eight other potentially acceptable sites have been evaluated in accordance with the DOE's General Guidelines for the Recommendation of Sites for the Nuclear Waste Repositories. These evaluations were reported in draft environmental assessments (EAs), which were issued for public review and comment. After considering the comments received on the draft EAs, the DOE prepared the final EAs. On the basis of the evaluations reported in this EA, the DOE has found that the Hanford site is not disqualified under the guidelines. The DOE has also found that is is suitable for site characterization because the evidence does not support a conclusion that the site will not be able to meet each of the qualifying conditions specified in the guidelines. On the basis of these findings, the DOE is nominating the Hanford site as one of five sites available for characterization.

  17. Environmental assessment: Reference repository location, Hanford site, Washington

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    none,

    1986-05-01

    In February 1983, the US Department of Energy (DOE) identified a reference repository location at the Hanford Site in Washington as one of the nine potentially acceptable sites for a mined geologic repository for spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste. The site is in the Columbia Plateau, which is one of five distinct geohydrologic settings considered for the first repository. To determine their suitability, the Hanford Site and the eight other potentially acceptable sites have been evaluated in accordance with the DOE's General Guidelines for the Recommendation of Sites for the Nuclear Waste Repositories. These evaluations were reported in draft environmental assessments (EAs), which were issued for public review and comment. After considering the comments received on the draft EAs, the DOE prepared the final EAs. On the basis of the evaluations reported in this EA, the DOE has found that the Hanford site is not disqualified under the guidelines. The DOE has also found that it is suitable for site characterization because the evidence does not support a conclusion that the site will not be able to meet each of the qualifying conditions specified in the guidelines. On the basis of these findings, the DOE is nominating the Hanford site as one of five sites suitable for characterization.

  18. Participatory Approach to Long-Term Socio-Economic Scenarios as Building Block of a Local Vulnerability and Risk Assessment Tool - The Case Study Lienz (East-Tyrol)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyer, Ina; Eder, Brigitte; Hama, Michiko; Leitner, Markus

    2016-04-01

    Risks associated with climate change are mostly still understood and analyzed in a sector- or hazard-specific and rarely in a systemic, dynamic and scenario-based manner. In addition, socio-economic trends are often neglected in local vulnerability and risk assessments although they represent potential key determinants of risk and vulnerability. The project ARISE (Adaptation and Decision Support via Risk Management Through Local Burning Embers) aims at filling this gap by applying a participatory approach to socio-economic scenario building as building block of a local vulnerability assessment and risk management tool. Overall, ARISE aims at developing a decision support system for climate-sensitive iterative risk management as a key adaptation tool for the local level using Lienz in the East-Tyrol as a test-site City. One central building block is participatory socio-economic scenario building that - together with regionalized climate change scenarios - form a centrepiece in the process-oriented assessment of climate change risks and vulnerability. Major vulnerabilities and risks may stem from the economic performance, the socio-economic or socio-demographic developments or changes in asset exposition and not from climate change impacts themselves. The IPCC 5th assessment report underlines this and states that for most economic sectors, the impact of climate change may be small relative to the impacts of other driving forces such as changes in population growth, age, income, technology, relative prices, lifestyle, regulation, governance and many other factors in the socio-economy (Arent et al., 2014). The paper presents the methodology, process and results with respect to the building of long-term local socio-economic scenarios for the City of Lienz and the surrounding countryside. Scenarios were developed in a participatory approach using a scenario workshop that involved major stakeholders from the region. Participatory approaches are increasingly recognized as

  19. Assessment of the LH wave for demo in pulsed and steady state scenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cardinali, A.; Barbato, E.; Castaldo, C.; Cesario, R.; Marinucci, M.; Ravera, G. L.; Tuccillo, A. A. [Associazione Euratom-ENEA sulla Fusione, C.R. Frascati, Via Enrico Fermi, 45 00044, Frascati, Roma (Italy); Ceccuzzi, S. [Associazione Euratom-ENEA sulla Fusione, C.R. Frascati, Via Enrico Fermi, 45 00044, Frascati, Roma, Italy and Department of Engineering, Roma Tre University, Via Vito Volterra, 62, 00146, Roma (Italy); Mirizzi, F.; Panaccione, L. [Consorzio CREATE, Universita degli Studi di Napoli Federico II, Via Claudio 21, 80125, Napoli (Italy); Santini, F.; Schettini, G. [Department of Engineering, Roma Tre University, Via Vito Volterra, 62, 00146, Roma (Italy)

    2014-02-12

    The Lower Hybrid Current Drive (LHCD) has been analysed in DEMO tokamak plasma in the 'pulsed and steady state regime' considering two plasma scenarios characterized, respectively, by flat density profile and peaked density profiles. We have obtained LH deposition profiles in cases of neglecting the effect of spectral broadening produced by PI at the edge. By comparing the Power Deposition Profiles for both DEMO scenarios ('flat' and 'peaked'), the SOL of DEMO does not play any role in the absorption of the LH wave. In all cases the deposition is localized inside the separatrix layer r/a≤1. By lowering the parallel wave-number peak of the power spectrum from 1.8 to 1.5, the accessibility condition in both case prevents the power from reaching the deposition layer apart from a small fraction which pertains to the higher n∥ of the power spectrum. The spectrum centred at 1.8 is suggested to be useful in DEMO. More realistically, as supported by available data of LHCD in a wide range of operating densities, the effect of parametric decay instability (PDI) can produce a spectral broadening which should be included in the simulations. Further studies would be necessary for assessing the temperature profiles in the SOL at reactor-graded conditions. This is because, if the SOL temperature is at least of the order of 50 to 100 eV, the effect of PDI broads the spectrum up to n∥≤10, and the deposition profile is slightly wider but not much shifted outwards.

  20. Assessment of Alternative Scenarios for CO2 Reduction Potential in the Residential Building Sector

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Young-Sun Jeong

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The South Korean government announced its goals of reducing the country’s CO2 emissions by up to 30% below the business as usual (BAU projections by 2020 in 2009 and 37% below BAU projections by 2030 in 2015. This paper explores the potential energy savings and reduction in CO2 emissions offered by residential building energy efficiency policies and plans in South Korea. The current and future energy consumption and CO2 emissions in the residential building were estimated using an energy–environment model from 2010 to 2030. The business as usual scenario is based on the energy consumption characteristic of residential buildings using the trends related to socio-economic prospects and the number of dwellings. The alternative scenarios took into account energy efficiency for new residential buildings (scenario I, refurbishment of existing residential buildings (scenario II, use of highly efficient boilers (scenario III, and use of a solar thermal energy system (scenario IV. The results show that energy consumption in the residential building sector will increase by 33% between 2007 and 2030 in the BAU scenario. Maximum reduction in CO2 emissions in the residential building sector of South Korea was observed by 2030 in scenario I. In each alternative scenario analysis, CO2 emissions were 12.9% lower than in the business as usual scenario by the year 2030.

  1. From "farm to fork" strawberry system: current realities and potential innovative scenarios from life cycle assessment of non-renewable energy use and green house gas emissions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Girgenti, Vincenzo; Peano, Cristiana; Baudino, Claudio; Tecco, Nadia

    2014-03-01

    In this study, we analysed the environmental profile of the strawberry industry in Northern Italy. The analysis was conducted using two scenarios as reference systems: strawberry crops grown in unheated plastic tunnels using currently existing cultivation techniques, post-harvest management practices and consumption patterns (scenario 1) and the same strawberry cultivation chain in which some of the materials used were replaced with bio-based materials (scenario 2). In numerous studies, biodegradable polymers have been shown to be environmentally friendly, thus potentially reducing environmental impacts. These materials can be recycled into carbon dioxide and water through composting. Many materials, such as Mater-BI® and PLA®, are also derived from renewable resources. The methodology chosen for the environmental analysis was a life cycle assessment (LCA) based on a consequential approach developed to assess a product's overall environmental impact from the production system to its usage and disposal. In the field stage, a traditional mulching film (non-biodegradable) could be replaced with a biodegradable product. This change would result in waste production of 0 kg/ha for the bio-based product compared to 260 kg/ha of waste for polyethylene (PE). In the post-harvest stage, the issue addressed was the use and disposal of packaging materials. The innovative scenario evaluated herein pertains to the use of new packaging materials that increase the shelf life of strawberries, thereby decreasing product losses while increasing waste management efficiency at the level of a distribution platform and/or sales outlet. In the event of product deterioration or non-sale of the product, the packaging and its contents could be collected together as organic waste without any additional processes because the packaging is compostable according to EN13432. Scenario 2 would achieve reductions of 20% in the global warming potential and non-renewable energy impact categories.

  2. Statistical downscaling of the French Mediterranean climate: assessment for present and projection in an anthropogenic scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Lavaysse

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available The Mediterranean basin is a particularly vulnerable region to climate change, featuring a sharply contrasted climate between the North and South and governed by a semi-enclosed sea with pronounced surrounding topography covering parts of the Europe, Africa and Asia regions. The physiographic specificities contribute to produce mesoscale atmospheric features that can evolve to high-impact weather systems such as heavy precipitation, wind storms, heat waves and droughts. The evolution of these meteorological extremes in the context of global warming is still an open question, partly because of the large uncertainty associated with existing estimates produced by global climate models (GCM with coarse horizontal resolution (~200 km. Downscaling climatic information at a local scale is, thus, needed to improve the climate extreme prediction and to provide relevant information for vulnerability and adaptation studies. In this study, we investigate wind, temperature and precipitation distributions for past recent climate and future scenarios at eight meteorological stations in the French Mediterranean region using one statistical downscaling model, referred as the "Cumulative Distribution Function transform" (CDF-t approach. A thorough analysis of the uncertainty associated with statistical downscaling and bi-linear interpolation of large-scale wind speed, temperature and rainfall from reanalyses (ERA-40 and three GCM historical simulations, has been conducted and quantified in terms of Kolmogorov-Smirnov scores. CDF-t produces a more accurate and reliable local wind speed, temperature and rainfall. Generally, wind speed, temperature and rainfall CDF obtained with CDF-t are significantly similar with the observed CDF, even though CDF-t performance may vary from one station to another due to the sensitivity of the driving large-scale fields or local impact. CDF-t has then been applied to climate simulations of the 21st century under B1 and A2 scenarios

  3. Assessing Regional Scale Variability in Extreme Value Statistics Under Altered Climate Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brunsell, Nathaniel [Univ. of Kansas, Lawrence, KS (United States); Mechem, David [Univ. of Kansas, Lawrence, KS (United States); Ma, Chunsheng [Wichita State Univ., KS (United States)

    2015-02-20

    validity of an innovative multi–resolution information theory approach, and the ability of the RCM modeling framework to represent the low-frequency modulation of extreme climate events. Once the skill of the modeling and analysis methodology has been established, we will apply the same approach for the AR5 (IPCC Fifth Assessment Report) climate change scenarios in order to assess how climate extremes and the the influence of lowfrequency variability on climate extremes might vary under changing climate. The research specifically addresses the DOE focus area 2. Simulation of climate extremes under a changing climate. Specific results will include (1) a better understanding of the spatial and temporal structure of extreme events, (2) a thorough quantification of how extreme values are impacted by low-frequency climate teleconnections, (3) increased knowledge of current regional climate models ability to ascertain these influences, and (4) a detailed examination of the how the distribution of extreme events are likely to change under different climate change scenarios. In addition, this research will assess the ability of the innovative wavelet information theory approach to characterize extreme events. Any and all of these results will greatly enhance society’s ability to understand and mitigate the regional ramifications of future global climate change.

  4. Assessment and use of drug information references in Utah pharmacies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Moorman KL

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Objective: To determine which drug references Utah pharmacists use most frequently. To determine which types of drug information questions are most commonly asked, and whether Utah pharmacists have access to adequate references to respond to these questions. Methods: A 19-question survey was created using Qualtrics, LLC (Provo, Utah software. An electronic survey link was sent to 1,431 pharmacists with a valid e-mail address listed in the Department of Professional Licensing database. Questions focused on available references in the participant’s pharmacy, how current the references are, and the participant’s use of the references. Surveys were analyzed for participants practicing in either community or hospital pharmacies in the state of Utah. Results: A total of 147 responses were included in the analysis. Approximately 44% of respondents practiced in the community, and 56% practiced in a hospital setting. The most commonly used references by Utah pharmacists are Micromedex, Lexicomp, UpToDate, Clinical Pharmacology, and Drug Facts & Comparisons. Pharmacists in the community frequently receive questions related to adverse drug reactions, drug interactions, and over-the-counter medications. Pharmacists in the hospital frequently receive questions relating to dosage and administration, drug interactions, and adverse drug reactions. About 89% of community pharmacists and 96% of hospital pharmacists feel available references are adequate to answer the questions they receive. Conclusions: Utah pharmacists generally use large reference suites to answer drug information questions. The majority of pharmacists consider the references available to them to be adequate to answer the questions they receive.

  5. Women's Drinking Decisions in Heterosocial Situations: Development and Validation of Scenarios to Assess Influence of Attraction and Risk-Awareness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noel, Nora E; Ogle, Richard L; Maisto, Stephen A; Jackson, Lee A; Loomis, Randi B; Heaton, Jennifer A

    2016-07-12

    These three related studies created a set of ecologically valid scenarios for assessing relative associations of both attraction and sexual coercion risk-recognition in college women's heterosocial situational drinking decisions. The first study constructed nine scenarios using input from heterosexual drinking women in the age cohort (18-30) most likely to experience alcohol-related sexual coercion. In the second study, 50 female undergraduates (ages 18-25) assessed the salience of three important dimensions (attraction, risk, and realism) in these scenarios. The third study was a factor analysis (and a follow-up confirmatory factor analysis) of the elements of coercion-risk as perceived by the target group with two female samples recruited 1 year apart (Sample 1: N = 157, ages 18-29); Sample 2: N = 157, ages 18-30). Results confirmed that the scenarios could be a useful vehicle for assessing how women balance out risk and attraction to make in-the moment heterosocial drinking decisions. The factor analysis showed participants perceived two types of situations, based on whether the male character was "Familiar" or "Just Met" and perceived themselves as happier and more excited with Familiar males. However, in contrast to HIV risk studies, Familiar males were perceived as higher risk for unwanted sex. Future research will use the six scenarios that emerged from the factor analysis to study how attraction and risk perception differentially affect young adult women's social drinking decisions.

  6. Fabric-skin models to assess infection transfer for impetigo contagiosa in a kindergarten scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerhardts, A; Henze, S V; Bockmühl, D; Höfer, D

    2015-06-01

    Children in community bodies like kindergartens are predisposed to suffer from impetigo. To consider important measures for infection prevention, direct and indirect transmission routes of pathogens must be revealed. Therefore, we studied the role of skin and fabrics in the spread of the impetigo pathogen Staphylococcus aureus and the strain Streptococcus equi (surrogate to Streptococcus pyogenes) in order to assess infection transfer in realistic scenarios. The transmission of test strains was studied with standardized fabric-skin models using a technical artificial skin and fabrics of different fiber types commonly occurring in German kindergartens. In synthetic pus, both test strains persisted on artificial skin and fabrics for at least 4 h. Friction enhanced transfer, depending on the fiber type or fabric construction. In a skin-to-skin setup, the total transfer was higher than via fabrics and no decrease in the transmission rates from donor to recipients could be observed after successive direct skin contacts. Children in kindergartens may be at risk of transmission for impetigo pathogens, especially via direct skin contact, but also by the joint use of fabrics, like towels or handicraft materials. Fabric-skin models used in this study enable further insight into the transmission factors for skin infections on the basis of a practical approach.

  7. Seismic Hazard Assessment for a Characteristic Earthquake Scenario: Probabilistic-Deterministic Method

    Science.gov (United States)

    mouloud, Hamidatou

    2016-04-01

    The objective of this paper is to analyze the seismic activity and the statistical treatment of seismicity catalog the Constantine region between 1357 and 2014 with 7007 seismic event. Our research is a contribution to improving the seismic risk management by evaluating the seismic hazard in the North-East Algeria. In the present study, Earthquake hazard maps for the Constantine region are calculated. Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is classically performed through the Cornell approach by using a uniform earthquake distribution over the source area and a given magnitude range. This study aims at extending the PSHA approach to the case of a characteristic earthquake scenario associated with an active fault. The approach integrates PSHA with a high-frequency deterministic technique for the prediction of peak and spectral ground motion parameters in a characteristic earthquake. The method is based on the site-dependent evaluation of the probability of exceedance for the chosen strong-motion parameter. We proposed five sismotectonique zones. Four steps are necessary: (i) identification of potential sources of future earthquakes, (ii) assessment of their geological, geophysical and geometric, (iii) identification of the attenuation pattern of seismic motion, (iv) calculation of the hazard at a site and finally (v) hazard mapping for a region. In this study, the procedure of the earthquake hazard evaluation recently developed by Kijko and Sellevoll (1992) is used to estimate seismic hazard parameters in the northern part of Algeria.

  8. Parameter variation and scenario analysis in impact assessments of emerging energy technologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breunig, Hanna Marie

    There is a global need for energy technologies that reduce the adverse impacts of societal progress and that address today's challenges without creating tomorrow's problems. Life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) can support technology developers in achieving these prerequisites of sustainability by providing a systems perspective. However, modeling the early-stage scale up and impacts of technology systems may lead to unreliable or incomplete results due to a lack of representative technical, spatial, and temporal data. The goal of this dissertation is to support the acceleration of clean energy technology development by providing information about the regional variation of impacts and benefits resulting from plausible deployment scenarios. Three emerging energy technologies are selected as case studies: (1) brine management for carbon dioxide sequestration; (2) carbon dioxide capture, utilization, and sequestration; (3) stationary fuel cells for combined heat and power in commercial buildings. In all three case studies, priority areas are identified where more reliable data and models are necessary for reducing uncertainty, and vital information is revealed on how impacts vary spatially and temporally. Importantly, moving away from default technology and waste management hierarchies as a source of data fosters goal-driven systems thinking which in turn leads to the discovery of technology improvement potentials.

  9. A long-term, integrated impact assessment of alternative building energy code scenarios in China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yu, Sha; Eom, Jiyong; Evans, Meredydd; Clarke, Leon E.

    2014-04-01

    China is the second largest building energy user in the world, ranking first and third in residential and commercial energy consumption. Beginning in the early 1980s, the Chinese government has developed a variety of building energy codes to improve building energy efficiency and reduce total energy demand. This paper studies the impact of building energy codes on energy use and CO2 emissions by using a detailed building energy model that represents four distinct climate zones each with three building types, nested in a long-term integrated assessment framework GCAM. An advanced building stock module, coupled with the building energy model, is developed to reflect the characteristics of future building stock and its interaction with the development of building energy codes in China. This paper also evaluates the impacts of building codes on building energy demand in the presence of economy-wide carbon policy. We find that building energy codes would reduce Chinese building energy use by 13% - 22% depending on building code scenarios, with a similar effect preserved even under the carbon policy. The impact of building energy codes shows regional and sectoral variation due to regionally differentiated responses of heating and cooling services to shell efficiency improvement.

  10. Building Capacity in Urban Sustainability Assessment through Use of a Scenarios Game

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Rhys E.; Rutledge, Daniel T.; van Roon, Henri

    2011-01-01

    Urban form, the patterns of cities, in New Zealand is explored 50 years into the future through a scenarios game, published on the Internet. Four diverse scenarios provide a means to explore the present situation and envision how it may change over time with different trend drivers. Wild card events introduce uncertainty in a way that resonates…

  11. Hydrological and water quality impact assessment of a Mediterranean limno-reservoir under climate change and land use management scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Molina Navarro, Eugenio; Trolle, Dennis; Martínez-Pérez, Silvia

    2014-01-01

    Assessment Tool (SWAT) model developed for a small Mediterranean catchment to quantify the potential effects of various climate and land use change scenarios on catchment hydrology as well as the trophic state of a new kind of waterbody, a limno-reservoir (Pareja Limno-reservoir), created for environmental...

  12. Life-cycle analysis of the total Danish energy system. An assessment of the present Danish energy system and selected furture scenarios. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kuemmel, B.; Soerensen, B.

    1997-01-01

    The promise of life-cycle analysis (LCA) is to enable the incorporation of environmental and social impacts into decision-making processes. The challenge is to do it on the basis of the always incomplete and uncertain data available, in a way that is sufficiently transparent to avoid that the modeller introduces any particular bias into the decision process, by the way of selecting and treating the incomplete data. The life-cycle analysis of the currently existing system is to be seen as a reference, against which alternative solutions to the same problem is weighed. However, as it takes time to introduce new systems, the alternative scenarios are for a future situation, which is chosen as the middle of the 21st century. The reason for using a 30-50 year period is a reflection on the time needed for a smooth transition to an energy system based on sources different from the ones used today, with implied differences all the way through the conversion and end-use system. A scenario will only be selected if it has been identified and if there is social support for it, so construction of more exotic scenarios by the researcher would only be meaningful, if its advantages are so convincing that an interest can be created and the necessary social support be forthcoming. One may say that the energy scenarios based on renewable energy sources are in this category, as they were identified by a minority group (of scientists and other individuals) and successfully brought to the attention of the public debate during 1970ies. In any case it should be kept in mind, that no claim of having identified the optimum solution can be made after assessing a finite number of scenarios. (EG) 88 refs.

  13. References for Capability Assessment, Acquisition Planning, and Cost Estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-08-01

    library, in particular Ms. Amanda Talcott , in helping us locate many of the references, and the endeavors of Mr. Bob Romic, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers...Suite 1204, Arlington, VA 22202-4302. Respondents should be aware that notwithstanding any other provision of law, no person shall be subject to any

  14. Exposure Scenarios and Unit Dose Factors for the Hanford Immobilized Low Activity Tank Waste Performance Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    RITTMANN, P.D.

    1999-12-29

    Exposure scenarios are defined to identify potential pathways and combinations of pathways that could lead to radiation exposure from immobilized tank waste. Appropriate data and models are selected to permit calculation of dose factors for each exposure

  15. Assessing carbon stocks and modelling win-win scenarios of carbon sequestration through land-use changes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ponce-Hernandez, R.; Koohafkan, P.; Antoine, J. (eds.)

    2004-07-01

    This publication presents a methodology and software tools for assessing carbon stocks and modelling scenarios of carbon sequestration that were developed and tested in pilot field studies in Mexico and Cuba. The models and tools enable the analysis of land use change scenarios in order to identify in a given area (watershed or district) land use alternatives and land management practices that simultaneously maximize food production, maximize soil carbon sequestration, maximize biodiversity conservation and minimize land degradation. The objective is to develop and implement 'win-win' options that satisfy the multiple goals of farmers, land users and other stakeholders in relation to food security, carbon sequestration, biodiversity and land conservation.

  16. Extended Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for Coastal Impact Assessment: Spatial Coastal Population Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merkens, Jan-Ludolf; Reimann, Lena; Hinkel, Jochen; Vafeidis, Athanasios T.

    2016-04-01

    This work extends the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) by developing spatial projections of global coastal population distribution for the five basic SSPs. Based on a series of coastal migration drivers, which were identified from existing literature, we develop coastal narratives for the five basic SSPs (SSP1-5). These narratives account for differences in coastal versus inland population development in urban and rural areas. To spatially distribute population we use the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) national population and urbanisation projections and employ country-specific growth rates which differ for coastal and inland as well as for urban and rural regions. These rates are derived from spatial analysis of historical population data. We then adjust these rates for each SSP based on the coastal narratives. The resulting global population grids depict the projected distribution of coastal population for each SSP, until the end of the 21st century, at a spatial resolution of 30 arc seconds. These grids exhibit a three- to four-fold increase in coastal population compared to the basic SSPs. Across all SSPs, except for SSP3, coastal population peaks by the middle of the 21st century and declines afterwards. In SSP3 the coastal population grows continuously until 2100. Compared to the base year 2000 the coastal population increases considerably in all SSPs. The extended SSPs are intended to be utilised in Impact, Adaptation and Vulnerability (IAV) assessments as they allow for improved analysis of exposure to sea-level rise and coastal flooding under different physical and socioeconomic scenarios.

  17. Assessing impact of climate change on season length in Karnataka for IPCC SRES scenarios

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Aavudai Anandhi

    2010-08-01

    Changes in seasons and season length are an indicator, as well as an effect, of climate change. Seasonal change profoundly affects the balance of life in ecosystems and impacts essential human activities such as agriculture and irrigation. This study investigates the uncertainty of season length in Karnataka state, India, due to the choice of scenarios, season type and number of seasons. Based on the type of season, the monthly sequences of variables (predictors) were selected from datasets of NCEP and Canadian General Circulation Model (CGCM3). Seasonal stratifications were carried out on the selected predictors using K-means clustering technique. The results of cluster analysis revealed increase in average, wet season length in A2, A1B and B1 scenarios towards the end of 21st century. The increase in season length was higher for A2 scenario whereas it was the least for B1 scenario. COMMIT scenario did not show any change in season length. However, no change in average warm and cold season length was observed across the four scenarios considered. The number of seasons was increased from 2 to 5. The results of the analysis revealed that no distinct cluster could be obtained when the number of seasons was increased beyond three.

  18. Efficient Adoption and Assessment of Multiple Process Improvement Reference Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simona Jeners

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available A variety of reference models such as CMMI, COBIT or ITIL support IT organizations to improve their processes. These process improvement reference models (IRMs cover different domains such as IT development, IT Services or IT Governance but also share some similarities. As there are organizations that address multiple domains and need to coordinate their processes in their improvement we present MoSaIC, an approach to support organizations to efficiently adopt and conform to multiple IRMs. Our solution realizes a semantic integration of IRMs based on common meta-models. The resulting IRM integration model enables organizations to efficiently implement and asses multiple IRMs and to benefit from synergy effects.

  19. Assessment of effectiveness of geologic isolation systems. A conceptual simulation model for release scenario analysis of a hypothetical site in Columbia Plateau Basalts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stottlemyre, J.A.; Petrie, G.M.; Benson, G.L.; Zellmer, J.T.

    1981-01-01

    This report is a status report for an evolving methodology for release scenario development for underground nuclear waste repositories. As such, it is intended for use as a reference point and a preliminary description of an evolving geoscience methodology. When completed this methodology will be used as a tool in developing disruptive release scenarios for analyzing the long-term safety of geological nuclear waste repositories. While a basalt environment is used as an example, this report is not intended to reflect an actual site safety assessment for a repository in a media. It is rather intended to present a methodology system framework and to provide discussions of the geological phenomena and parameters that must be addressed in order to develop a methodology for potential release scenarios. It is also important to note that the phenomena, their interrelationships, and their relative importance along with the overall current structure of the model will change as new geological information is gathered through additional peer review, geotechnical input, site specific field work, and related research efforts.

  20. Reference hydrologic networks II. Using reference hydrologic networks to assess climate-driven changes in streamflow

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burn, Donald H.; Hannaford, Jamie; Hodgkins, Glenn A.; Whitfield, Paul H.; Thorne, Robin; Marsh, Terry

    2012-01-01

    Reference hydrologic networks (RHNs) can play an important role in monitoring for changes in the hydrological regime related to climate variation and change. Currently, the literature concerning hydrological response to climate variations is complex and confounded by the combinations of many methods of analysis, wide variations in hydrology, and the inclusion of data series that include changes in land use, storage regulation and water use in addition to those of climate. Three case studies that illustrate a variety of approaches to the analysis of data from RHNs are presented and used, together with a summary of studies from the literature, to develop approaches for the investigation of changes in the hydrological regime at a continental or global scale, particularly for international comparison. We present recommendations for an analysis framework and the next steps to advance such an initiative. There is a particular focus on the desirability of establishing standardized procedures and methodologies for both the creation of new national RHNs and the systematic analysis of data derived from a collection of RHNs.

  1. Assessment of impacts of agricultural and climate change scenarios on watershed water quantity and quality, and crop production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teshager, Awoke D.; Gassman, Philip W.; Schoof, Justin T.; Secchi, Silvia

    2016-08-01

    Modeling impacts of agricultural scenarios and climate change on surface water quantity and quality provides useful information for planning effective water, environmental and land use policies. Despite the significant impacts of agriculture on water quantity and quality, limited literature exists that describes the combined impacts of agricultural land use change and climate change on future bioenergy crop yields and watershed hydrology. In this study, the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) eco-hydrological model was used to model the combined impacts of five agricultural land use change scenarios and three downscaled climate pathways (representative concentration pathways, RCPs) that were created from an ensemble of eight atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs). These scenarios were implemented in a well-calibrated SWAT model for the intensively farmed and tiled Raccoon River watershed (RRW) located in western Iowa. The scenarios were executed for the historical baseline, early century, mid-century and late century periods. The results indicate that historical and more corn intensive agricultural scenarios with higher CO2 emissions consistently result in more water in the streams and greater water quality problems, especially late in the 21st century. Planting more switchgrass, on the other hand, results in less water in the streams and water quality improvements relative to the baseline. For all given agricultural landscapes simulated, all flow, sediment and nutrient outputs increase from early-to-late century periods for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios. We also find that corn and switchgrass yields are negatively impacted under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios in the mid- and late 21st century.

  2. Hydrological and water quality impact assessment of a Mediterranean limno-reservoir under climate change and land use management scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molina-Navarro, Eugenio; Trolle, Dennis; Martínez-Pérez, Silvia; Sastre-Merlín, Antonio; Jeppesen, Erik

    2014-02-01

    Water scarcity and water pollution constitute a big challenge for water managers in the Mediterranean region today and will exacerbate in a projected future warmer world, making a holistic approach for water resources management at the catchment scale essential. We expanded the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model developed for a small Mediterranean catchment to quantify the potential effects of various climate and land use change scenarios on catchment hydrology as well as the trophic state of a new kind of waterbody, a limno-reservoir (Pareja Limno-reservoir), created for environmental and recreational purposes. We also checked for the possible synergistic effects of changes in climate and land use on water flow and nutrient exports from the catchment. Simulations showed a noticeable impact of climate change in the river flow regime and consequently the water level of the limno-reservoir, especially during summer, complicating the fulfillment of its purposes. Most of the scenarios also predicted a deterioration of trophic conditions in the limno-reservoir. Fertilization and soil erosion were the main factors affecting nitrate and total phosphorus concentrations. Combined climate and land use change scenarios showed noticeable synergistic effects on nutrients exports, relative to running the scenarios individually. While the impact of fertilization on nitrate export is projected to be reduced with warming in most cases, an additional 13% increase in the total phosphorus export is expected in the worst-case combined scenario compared to the sum of individual scenarios. Our model framework may help water managers to assess and manage how these multiple environmental stressors interact and ultimately affect aquatic ecosystems.

  3. Assessing the future change of precipitation and reference evapotranspiration over Florida using ranked CMIP5 model ensemble

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hwang, S.; Chang, S. J.; Graham, W. D.

    2014-12-01

    The ultimate goal of this study is to assess future water vulnerability over Florida, based on the change in precipitation and evapotranspiration estimated using the most advanced Global Climate Model (GCM) ensemble. We evaluated the skills of CMIP5 (Climate Model Inter-comparison project, phase 5) climate models in reproducing retrospective climatology over the state of Florida for the key climate variables important from the hydrological and agricultural perspectives (i.e., precipitation (Precp), maximum and minimum temperature (Tmax and Tmin), and wind speed (Ws)). The biases of raw CMIP5 were estimated using two different grid-based observational datasets as references. Based on the accuracy of various predictors such as mean climatology, temporal variability, extreme frequency, etc., the GCMs were ranked for each of the different reference datasets, climate variables, and predictors. The variation of the ranks was examined and rank-based GCM weights were assigned. The weights were then used to develop future ensembles (for 4 different RCP gas-emission scenarios) for the annual cycle of monthly mean and variance of precipitation and reference evapotranspiration (ETo). Finally the differences between the retrospective and future ensembles were investigated to assess future climate change impacts on water vulnerability using simple indices (e.g., ETo/Precp., drought index, and Standardized Precp. index). The uncertainties of the assessment were quantified by the spread range of ensembles and a reliability factor for the GCMs estimated using a measure of model biases and convergence criterion.

  4. Impact of river regulation on a Mediterranean delta: Assessment of managed versus unmanaged scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bergillos, Rafael J.; Rodríguez-Delgado, Cristóbal; Millares, Agustín.; Ortega-Sánchez, Miguel; Losada, Miguel A.

    2016-07-01

    This work addresses the effects of the construction of a reservoir 19 km from the mouth on the dynamics of the Guadalfeo delta (southern Spain), a Mediterranean delta in a semiarid and high-mountain basin. The sediment volume transported as bed load and accumulated in the delta was estimated under two scenarios by means of a calibrated hydrological model: a managed scenario, considering the flows drained by the dam, and an unmanaged scenario, considering the absence of such infrastructure. Bathymetric and topographic measurements were analyzed and correlated with the fluvial and maritime forcing agents. Results indicate that the reservoir has significantly modified the dynamics downstream: the coast has lost almost 0.3 hm3 of sediments since the entry into operation of the dam, generating a 1.4 km coastline retreat around the mouth, with a maximum retreat of 87 m (92% of the initial). The beach profile decreased by up to 820 m2, whereas the average decrease around the mouth was equal to 214 m2. Under unmanaged conditions, more than 2 hm3 of bed load would have reached the coast. Based on the results, three new management scenarios of flows drained by the dam, in combination with bypassed sediment from the reservoir, were proposed to prevent more severe consequences in the delta and the silting of the reservoir. The proposed methodology for new management scenarios can be extended to other worldwide deltas, especially to those in semiarid and Mediterranean basins, and it represents an advanced tool for decision making.

  5. Environmental assessment: Reference repository location, Hanford Site, Washington (US)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    none,

    1986-05-01

    This appendix responds to the issues raised by Federal, State, and local governments, affected Indian Tribes, private citizens, and other organizations on the draft environmental assessment (EA) that was prepared pursuant to Section 112 of the Nuclear Waste Policy Act of 1982. In addition to presenting the issues raised in the comments and the responses, it describes where changes were made in the final EA. 535 refs., 13 figs., 16 tabs.

  6. Integrating land use and climate change scenarios and models into assessment of forested watershed services in Southern Thailand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trisurat, Yongyut; Eawpanich, Piyathip; Kalliola, Risto

    2016-05-01

    The Thadee watershed, covering 112km(2), is the main source of water for agriculture and household consumption in the Nakhon Srithammarat Province in Southern Thailand. As the natural forests upstream have been largely degraded and transformed to fruit tree and rubber plantations, problems with landslides and flooding have resulted. This research attempts to predict how further land-use/land-cover changes during 2009-2020 and conceivable changes in rainfall may influence the future levels of water yield and sediment load in the Thadee River. Three different land use scenarios (trend, development and conservation) were defined in collaboration with the local stakeholders, and three different rainfall scenarios (average rainfall, climate change and extreme wet) were determined on the basis of literature sources. Spatially explicit empirical modelling was employed to allocate future land demands and to assess the contributions of land use and rainfall changes, considering both their separate and combined effects. The results suggest that substantial land use changes may occur from a large expansion of rubber plantations in the upper sub-watersheds, especially under the development land use scenario. The reduction of the current annual rainfall by approximately 30% would decrease the predicted water yields by 38% from 2009. According to the extreme rainfall scenario (an increase of 36% with respect to current rainfall), an amplification of 50% of the current runoff could result. Sensitivity analyses showed that the predicted soil loss is more responsive to changes in rainfall than to the compared land use scenarios alone. However, very high sediment load and runoff levels were predicted on the basis of combined intensified land use and extreme rainfall scenarios. Three conservation activities-protection, reforestation and a mixed-cropping system-are proposed to maintain the functional watershed services of the Thadee watershed region.

  7. Assessing spatial uncertainties of land allocation using a scenario approach and sensitivity analysis: a study for land use in Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verburg, Peter H; Tabeau, Andrzej; Hatna, Erez

    2013-09-01

    Land change model outcomes are vulnerable to multiple types of uncertainty, including uncertainty in input data, structural uncertainties in the model and uncertainties in model parameters. In coupled model systems the uncertainties propagate between the models. This paper assesses uncertainty of changes in future spatial allocation of agricultural land in Europe as they arise from a general equilibrium model coupled to a spatial land use allocation model. Two contrasting scenarios are used to capture some of the uncertainty in the development of typical combinations of economic, demographic and policy variables. The scenario storylines include different measurable assumptions concerning scenario specific drivers (variables) and parameters. Many of these assumptions are estimations and thus include a certain level of uncertainty regarding their true values. This leads to uncertainty within the scenario outcomes. In this study we have explored how uncertainty in national-level assumptions within the contrasting scenario assumptions translates into uncertainty in the location of changes in agricultural land use in Europe. The results indicate that uncertainty in coarse-scale assumptions does not translate into a homogeneous spread of the uncertainty within Europe. Some regions are more certain than others in facing specific land change trajectories irrespective of the uncertainty in the macro-level assumptions. The spatial spread of certain and more uncertain locations of land change is dependent on location conditions as well as on the overall scenario conditions. Translating macro-level uncertainties to uncertainties in spatial patterns of land change makes it possible to better understand and visualize the land change consequences of uncertainties in model input variables.

  8. Life cycle assessment of packaging systems for beer and soft drinks. Energy and transport scenarios. Technical report 7

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Frees, N.; Pedersen Weidema, B.

    1998-06-01

    This report is part of a life cycle assessment (LCA) comparing the potential environmental impacts associated with different existing or alternative packaging systems for beer and carbonated soft drinks that are filled and sold in Denmark. The study compares refillable and disposable glass and PET bottles and steel and aluminium cans and is an update of a previous study carried out in 1992-1996. This report is the technical report on energy and transport scenarios. (au)

  9. Assessing groundwater pollution hazard changes under different socio-economic and environmental scenarios in an agricultural watershed

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lima, M. Lourdes, E-mail: mlima@mdp.edu.ar [Instituto de Geología de Costas y del Cuaternario, FCEyN, Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata, Funes 3350, Nivel 1, 7600 Mar del Plata (Argentina); Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (CONICET) (Argentina); Romanelli, Asunción, E-mail: aromanel@mdp.edu.ar [Instituto de Geología de Costas y del Cuaternario, FCEyN, Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata, Funes 3350, Nivel 1, 7600 Mar del Plata (Argentina); Instituto de Investigaciones Marinas y Costeras (IIMyC), Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (CONICET) (Argentina); Massone, Héctor E., E-mail: hmassone@mdp.edu.ar [Instituto de Geología de Costas y del Cuaternario, FCEyN, Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata, Funes 3350, Nivel 1, 7600 Mar del Plata (Argentina)

    2015-10-15

    This paper proposes a modeling approach for assessing changes in groundwater pollution hazard under two different socio-economic and environmental scenarios: The first one considers an exponential growth of agriculture land-use (Relegated Sustainability), while the other deals with regional economic growth, taking into account, the restrictions put on natural resources use (Sustainability Reforms). The recent (2011) and forecasted (2030) groundwater pollution hazard is evaluated based on hydrogeological parameters and, the impact of land-use changes in the groundwater system, coupling together a land-use change model (Dyna-CLUE) with a groundwater flow model (MODFLOW), as inputs to a decision system support (EMDS). The Dulce Stream Watershed (Pampa Plain, Argentina) was chosen to test the usefulness and utility of this proposed method. It includes a high level of agricultural activities, significant local extraction of groundwater resources for drinking water and irrigation and extensive available data regarding aquifer features. The Relegated Sustainability Scenario showed a negative change in the aquifer system, increasing (+ 20%; high–very high classes) the contribution to groundwater pollution hazard throughout the watershed. On the other hand, the Sustainability Reforms Scenario displayed more balanced land-use changes with a trend towards sustainability, therefore proposing a more acceptable change in the aquifer system for 2030 with a possible 2% increase (high–very high classes) in groundwater pollution hazard. Results in the recent scenario (2011) showed that 54% of Dulce Stream Watershed still shows a moderate to a very low contribution to groundwater pollution hazard (mainly in the lower area). Therefore, from the point of view of natural resource management, this is a positive aspect, offering possibilities for intervention in order to prevent deterioration and protect this aquifer system. However, since it is quite possible that this aquifer status

  10. Assessing risks and uncertainties in forest dynamics under different management scenarios and climate change

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Matthias; Albert; Jan; Hansen; Jürgen; Nagel; Matthias; Schmidt; Hermann; Spellmann

    2015-01-01

    Background: Forest management faces a climate induced shift in growth potential and increasing current and emerging new risks. Vulnerability analysis provides decision support based on projections of natural resources taking risks and uncertainties into account. In this paper we(1) characterize differences in forest dynamics under three management scenarios,(2) analyse the effects of the three scenarios on two risk factors, windthrow and drought stress, and(3) quantify the effects and the amount of uncertainty arising from climate projections on height increment and drought stress.Methods: In four regions in northern Germany, we apply three contrasting management scenarios and project forest development under climate change until 2070. Three climate runs(minimum, median, maximum) based on the emission scenario RCP 8.5 control the site-sensitive forest growth functions. The minimum and maximum climate run define the range of prospective climate development.Results: The projections of different management regimes until 2070 show the diverging medium-term effects of thinnings and harvests and long-term effects of species conversion on a regional scale. Examples of windthrow vulnerability and drought stress reveal how adaptation measures depend on the applied management path and the decision-maker’s risk attitude. Uncertainty analysis shows the increasing variability of drought risk projections with time. The effect of climate projections on height growth are quantified and uncertainty analysis reveals that height growth of young trees is dominated by the age-trend whereas the climate signal in height increment of older trees is decisive.Conclusions: Drought risk is a serious issue in the eastern regions independent of the applied silvicultural scenario,but adaptation measures are limited as the proportion of the most drought tolerant species Scots pine is already high. Windthrow risk is no serious overall threat in any region, but adequate counter-measures such as

  11. Assessing risks and uncertainties in forest dynamics under different management scenarios and climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthias Albert

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Background Forest management faces a climate induced shift in growth potential and increasing current and emerging new risks. Vulnerability analysis provides decision support based on projections of natural resources taking risks and uncertainties into account. In this paper we (1 characterize differences in forest dynamics under three management scenarios, (2 analyse the effects of the three scenarios on two risk factors, windthrow and drought stress, and (3 quantify the effects and the amount of uncertainty arising from climate projections on height increment and drought stress. Methods In four regions in northern Germany, we apply three contrasting management scenarios and project forest development under climate change until 2070. Three climate runs (minimum, median, maximum based on the emission scenario RCP 8.5 control the site-sensitive forest growth functions. The minimum and maximum climate run define the range of prospective climate development. Results The projections of different management regimes until 2070 show the diverging medium-term effects of thinnings and harvests and long-term effects of species conversion on a regional scale. Examples of windthrow vulnerability and drought stress reveal how adaptation measures depend on the applied management path and the decision-maker’s risk attitude. Uncertainty analysis shows the increasing variability of drought risk projections with time. The effect of climate projections on height growth are quantified and uncertainty analysis reveals that height growth of young trees is dominated by the age-trend whereas the climate signal in height increment of older trees is decisive. Conclusions Drought risk is a serious issue in the eastern regions independent of the applied silvicultural scenario, but adaptation measures are limited as the proportion of the most drought tolerant species Scots pine is already high. Windthrow risk is no serious overall threat in any region, but adequate

  12. Children and adults exposed to electromagnetic fields at the ICNIRP reference levels: theoretical assessment of the induced peak temperature increase.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bakker, J F; Paulides, M M; Neufeld, E; Christ, A; Kuster, N; van Rhoon, G C

    2011-08-07

    To avoid potentially adverse health effects of electromagnetic fields (EMF), the International Commission on Non-Ionizing Radiation Protection (ICNIRP) has defined EMF reference levels. Restrictions on induced whole-body-averaged specific absorption rate (SAR(wb)) are provided to keep the whole-body temperature increase (T(body, incr)) under 1 °C during 30 min. Additional restrictions on the peak 10 g spatial-averaged SAR (SAR(10g)) are provided to prevent excessive localized tissue heating. The objective of this study is to assess the localized peak temperature increase (T(incr, max)) in children upon exposure at the reference levels. Finite-difference time-domain modeling was used to calculate T(incr, max) in six children and two adults exposed to orthogonal plane-wave configurations. We performed a sensitivity study and Monte Carlo analysis to assess the uncertainty of the results. Considering the uncertainties in the model parameters, we found that a peak temperature increase as high as 1 °C can occur for worst-case scenarios at the ICNIRP reference levels. Since the guidelines are deduced from temperature increase, we used T(incr, max) as being a better metric to prevent excessive localized tissue heating instead of localized peak SAR. However, we note that the exposure time should also be considered in future guidelines. Hence, we advise defining limits on T(incr, max) for specified durations of exposure.

  13. Children and adults exposed to electromagnetic fields at the ICNIRP reference levels: theoretical assessment of the induced peak temperature increase

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bakker, J. F.; Paulides, M. M.; Neufeld, E.; Christ, A.; Kuster, N.; van Rhoon, G. C.

    2011-08-01

    To avoid potentially adverse health effects of electromagnetic fields (EMF), the International Commission on Non-Ionizing Radiation Protection (ICNIRP) has defined EMF reference levels. Restrictions on induced whole-body-averaged specific absorption rate (SARwb) are provided to keep the whole-body temperature increase (Tbody, incr) under 1 °C during 30 min. Additional restrictions on the peak 10 g spatial-averaged SAR (SAR10g) are provided to prevent excessive localized tissue heating. The objective of this study is to assess the localized peak temperature increase (Tincr, max) in children upon exposure at the reference levels. Finite-difference time-domain modeling was used to calculate Tincr, max in six children and two adults exposed to orthogonal plane-wave configurations. We performed a sensitivity study and Monte Carlo analysis to assess the uncertainty of the results. Considering the uncertainties in the model parameters, we found that a peak temperature increase as high as 1 °C can occur for worst-case scenarios at the ICNIRP reference levels. Since the guidelines are deduced from temperature increase, we used Tincr, max as being a better metric to prevent excessive localized tissue heating instead of localized peak SAR. However, we note that the exposure time should also be considered in future guidelines. Hence, we advise defining limits on Tincr, max for specified durations of exposure.

  14. Biodiversity losses and conservation trade-offs: Assessing future urban growth scenarios for a North American trade corridor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villarreal, Miguel; Norman, Laura M.; Wallace, Cynthia S.A.; Boykin, Kenneth

    2013-01-01

    The Sonoran Desert and Apache Highlands ecoregions of North America are areas of exceptionally high plant and vertebrate biodiversity. However, much of the vertebrate biodiversity is supported by only a few vegetation types with limited distributions, some of which are increasingly threatened by changing land uses. We assessed the impacts of two future urban growth scenarios on biodiversity in a binational watershed in Arizona, USA and Sonora, Mexico. We quantified and mapped terrestrial vertebrate species richness using Wildlife Habitat Relation models and validated the results with data from National Park Service biological inventories. Future urban growth, based on historical trends, was projected to the year 2050 for 1) a “Current Trends” scenario and, 2) a “Megalopolis” scenario that represented a transnational growth corridor with open-space conservation attributes. Based on Current Trends, 45% of existing riparian woodland (267 of 451species), and 34% of semi-desert grasslands (215 of 451 species) will be lost, whereas, in the Megalopolis scenario, these types would decline by 44% and 24% respectively. Outcomes of the two models suggest a trade-off at the taxonomic class level: Current Trends would reduce and fragment mammal and herpetofauna habitat, while Megalopolis would result in loss of avian-rich riparian habitat.

  15. Safety assessment on the human intrusion scenarios of near surface disposal facility for low and very low level radioactive waste

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hong, Sung Wook; Park, Jin Baek [Korea Radioactive Waste Agency, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Park, Sang Ho [Chungnam National University, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-03-15

    The second-stage near surface disposal facility for low and very low level radioactive waste's permanent disposal is to be built. During the institutional control period, the inadvertent intrusion of the general public is limited. But after the institutional control period, the access to the general public is not restricted. Therefore human who has purpose of residence and resource exploration can intrude the disposal facility. In this case, radioactive effects to the intruder should be limited within regulatory dose limits. This study conducted the safety assessment of human intrusion on the second-stage surface disposal facility through drilling and post drilling scenario. Results of drilling and post drilling scenario were satisfied with regulatory dose limits. The result showed that post-drilling scenario was more significant than drilling scenario. According to the human intrusion time and behavior after the closure of the facility, dominant radionuclide contributing to the intruder was different. Sensitivity analyses on the parameters about the human behavior were also satisfied with regulatory dose limits. Especially, manual redistribution factor was the most sensitive parameter on exposure dose. A loading plan of spent filter waste and dry active waste was more effective than a loading plan of spent filter waste and other wastes for the radiological point of view. These results can be expected to provide both robustness and defense in depth for the development of safety case further.

  16. Evaluating the adequacy of a reference site pool for ecological assessments in environmentally complex regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ode, Peter R.; Rehn, Andrew C.; Mazor, Raphael D.; Schiff, Kenneth C.; Stein, Eric D.; May, Jason; Brown, Larry R.; Herbst, David B.; Gillette, D.D.; Lunde, Kevin; Hawkins, Charles P.

    2016-01-01

    Many advances in the field of bioassessment have focused on approaches for objectively selecting the pool of reference sites used to establish expectations for healthy waterbodies, but little emphasis has been placed on ways to evaluate the suitability of the reference-site pool for its intended applications (e.g., compliance assessment vs ambient monitoring). These evaluations are critical because an inadequately evaluated reference pool may bias assessments in some settings. We present an approach for evaluating the adequacy of a reference-site pool for supporting biotic-index development in environmentally heterogeneous and pervasively altered regions. We followed common approaches for selecting sites with low levels of anthropogenic stress to screen 1985 candidate stream reaches to create a pool of 590 reference sites for assessing the biological integrity of streams in California, USA. We assessed the resulting pool of reference sites against 2 performance criteria. First, we evaluated how well the reference-site pool represented the range of natural gradients present in the entire population of streams as estimated by sites sampled through probabilistic surveys. Second, we evaluated the degree to which we were successful in rejecting sites influenced by anthropogenic stress by comparing biological metric scores at reference sites with the most vs fewest potential sources of stress. Using this approach, we established a reference-site pool with low levels of human-associated stress and broad coverage of environmental heterogeneity. This approach should be widely applicable and customizable to particular regional or programmatic needs.

  17. PRESSCA: A regional operative Early Warning System for landslides risk scenario assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ponziani, Francesco; Stelluti, Marco; Berni, Nicola; Brocca, Luca; Moramarco, Tommaso

    2013-04-01

    The Italian national alert system for the hydraulic and hydrogeological risk is ensured by the National Civil Protection Department, through the "Functional Centres" Network, together with scientific/technical Support Centres, named "Competence Centres". The role of the Functional Centres is to alert regional/national civil protection network, to manage the prediction and the monitoring phases, thus ensuring the flow of data for the management of the emergency. The Umbria regional alerting procedure is based on three increasing warning levels of criticality for 6 sub-areas (~1200 km²). Specifically, for each duration (from 1 to 48 hours), three criticality levels are assigned to the rainfall values corresponding to a recurrence interval of 2, 5, and 10 years. In order to improve confidence on the daily work for hydrogeological risk assessment and management, a simple and operational early warning system for the prediction of shallow landslide triggering on regional scale was implemented. The system is primarily based on rainfall thresholds, which represent the main element of evaluation for the early-warning procedures of the Italian Civil Protection system. Following previous studies highlighting that soil moisture conditions play a key role on landslide triggering, a continuous physically-based soil water balance model was implemented for the estimation of soil moisture conditions over the whole regional territory. In fact, a decreasing trend between the cumulated rainfall values over 24, 36 and 48 hours and the soil moisture conditions prior to past landslide events was observed. This trend provides an easy-to-use tool to dynamically adjust the operational rainfall thresholds with the soil moisture conditions simulated by the soil water balance model prior to rainfall events. The application of this procedure allowed decreasing the uncertainties tied to the application of the rainfall thresholds only. The system is actually operational in real-time and it was

  18. Actuarial assessment of future loss scenarios in the German insurance sector

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kubik, A.; Boehm, U.; Born, K.; Broecker, U.; Buechner, M.; Burghoff, O.; Donat, M.; Gerstengarbe, F. W.; Hattermann, F. F.; Held, H.; Kuecken, M.; Leckebusch, G. C.; Ludwig, P.; Nocke, T.; Oesterle, H.; Pardowitz, T.; Pinto, J. G.; Prahl, B. F.; Ulbrich, U.; Werner, P. C.

    2012-04-01

    The German Insurance Association (GDV) analyzed the impacts of climate change for the German insurance market. The work was conducted in cooperation with Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Freie Universität Berlin and University of Cologne. Different approaches and data sets were used to analyze the impacts of winter storm, hail and floods. High-resolution loss records to residential buildings in Germany were provided. These daily records are available on a fine spatial level of administrative districts from 1997-2007. For the period of 1984-2008 daily losses to residential buildings were derived from motor vehicle own damage insurance, which shows a surprisingly high correlation between building losses and motor vehicle losses caused by natural hazards. Loss functions from GDVs own flood risk model were made available to estimate flood losses. As climate change will progress the mean annual losses in the private residential building insurance might increase. Until 2100 losses due to winter storm could rise by more than 50%. The increase is mainly attributable to the intensification of individual exceptionally severe storms. Climate change will also result in an increase of flood losses. By the end of the century mean losses are expected to be twice as high - depending on the given scenario they could remain constant or triple. Conversely extreme events with high cumulative losses are expected to become significantly more frequent. Storms with a today's return period of 50 years might occur every 10 years at the end of the century. Floods, now returning every 50 years, could arise every 25 years. For the first time hailstorms have been analyzed. It was noticed, that in particular East Germany might be hit more frequently. Despite these findings, i.e. the cost of insurance against natural hazards might increase, the extent of such an increase in Germany should still remain within limits that can be mastered by the insurance companies. But we have to

  19. Generating social impact scenarios, a key step in making technology assessment studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, M. V.

    1972-01-01

    The social impact scenario, a method used to trace the effects of new technological applications, is discussed. The research seeks to anticipate the secondary social impacts that arise from: (1) government or private programs that cope with major social problems like poverty, environmental pollution, or public safety; and (2) a concerted national effort to achieve a widely supported specific goal like landing a man on the moon or finding a cure for cancer.

  20. Application of fuzzy sets and cognitive maps to incorporate social science scenarios in integrated assessment models

    OpenAIRE

    Kok, de, JMM John; Titus, Milan; Wind, Herman G.

    2000-01-01

    Decision-support systems in the field of integrated water management could benefit considerably from social science knowledge, as many environmental changes are human-induced. Unfortunately the adequate incorporation of qualitative social science concepts in a quantitative modeling framework is not straightforward. The applicability of fuzzy set theory and fuzzy cognitive maps for the integration of qualitative scenarios in a decision–support system was examined for the urbanization of the co...

  1. Scenario based seismic hazard assessment and its application to the seismic verification of relevant buildings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romanelli, Fabio; Vaccari, Franco; Altin, Giorgio; Panza, Giuliano

    2016-04-01

    The procedure we developed, and applied to a few relevant cases, leads to the seismic verification of a building by: a) use of a scenario based neodeterministic approach (NDSHA) for the calculation of the seismic input, and b) control of the numerical modeling of an existing building, using free vibration measurements of the real structure. The key point of this approach is the strict collaboration, from the seismic input definition to the monitoring of the response of the building in the calculation phase, of the seismologist and the civil engineer. The vibrometry study allows the engineer to adjust the computational model in the direction suggested by the experimental result of a physical measurement. Once the model has been calibrated by vibrometric analysis, one can select in the design spectrum the proper range of periods of interest for the structure. Then, the realistic values of spectral acceleration, which include the appropriate amplification obtained through the modeling of a "scenario" input to be applied to the final model, can be selected. Generally, but not necessarily, the "scenario" spectra lead to higher accelerations than those deduced by taking the spectra from the national codes (i.e. NTC 2008, for Italy). The task of the verifier engineer is to act so that the solution of the verification is conservative and realistic. We show some examples of the application of the procedure to some relevant (e.g. schools) buildings of the Trieste Province. The adoption of the scenario input has given in most of the cases an increase of critical elements that have to be taken into account in the design of reinforcements. However, the higher cost associated with the increase of elements to reinforce is reasonable, especially considering the important reduction of the risk level.

  2. Regional and urban down scaling of global climate scenarios for health impact assessments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    San Jose, R.; Perez, J. L.; Perez, L.; Gonzalez, R. M.; Pecci, J.; Garzon, A.; Palacios, M.

    2015-07-01

    In this contribution we have used global climate RCP IPCC scenarios to produce climate and air pollution maps at regional (25 km resolution) and urban scale with 200 m spatial resolution over Europe and five European cities in order to investigate the impact on meteorological variables and pollutant concentrations . We have used the very well known mesoscale meteorological model WRF-Chem (NOAA, US). We have used 2011 as control past year and two RCP scenarios from CCSM global climate model with 4.5 W/m2 and 8.5 W/m2 for 2030, 2050 and 2100 years. After running WRF-Chem model, using the boundary conditions provided by RCP scenarios with the emissions of 2011, we have performed a detailed down scaling process using CALMET diagnostic model to obtain a full 200 m spatial resolution map of five European cities (London, Antwerp, Madrid, Milan, and Helsinki). We will show the results and the health impacts for future RCP IPCC climate scenarios in comparison with the 2011 control year information for climate and health indicators. Finally, we have also investigated the impact of the aerosol effects in the short wave radiation mean value. Two simulations with the WRF-Chem model have been performed over Europe in 2010. A baseline simulation without any feedback effects and a second simulation including the direct effects affecting the solar radiation reaching the surface as well as the indirect aerosol effect with potential impacts on increasing or decreasing the precipitation rates. Aerosol effects produce an increase of incoming radiation over Atlantic Ocean (up to 70%) because the prescribed aerosol concentrations in the WRF-Chem without feedbacks is substantially higher than the aerosol concentrations produced when we activate the feedback effects. The decrease in solar radiation in the Sahara area (10%) is found to be produced because the prescribed aerosol concentration in the no feedback simulation is lower than when we activate the feedback effects. (Author)

  3. Regional and urban downscaling of global climate scenarios for health impact assessments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    San Jose, R.; Perez, J.L.; Perez, L.; Gonzalez, R.M.; Pecci, J.; Garzon, A.; Palacios, M.

    2015-07-01

    In this contribution we have used global climate RCP IPCC scenarios to produce climate and air pollution maps at regional (25 km resolution) and urban scale with 200 m spatial resolution over Europe and five European cities in order to investigate the impact on meteorological variables and pollutant concentrations . We have used the very well known mesoscale meeorological model WRF-Chem (NOAA, US). We have used 2011 as control past year and two RCP scenarios from CCSM global climate model with 4.5 W/m2 and 8.5 W/m2 for 2030, 2050 and 2100 years. After running WRF-Chem model, using the boundary conditions provided by RCP scenarios with the emissions of 2011, we have performed a detailed downscaling process using CALMET diagnostic model to obtain a full 200 m spatial resolution map of five European cities (London, Antwerp, Madrid, Milan, and Helsinki). We will show the results and the health impacts for future RCP IPCC climate scenarios in comparison with the 2011 control year information for climate and health indicators. Finnally, we have also investigated the impact of the aerosol effects in the short wave radiation mean value. Two simulations with the WRF-Chem model have been performed over Europe in 2010. A baseline simulation without any feedback effects and a second simulation including the direct effects affecting the solar radiation reaching the surface as well as the indirect aerosol effect with potential impacts on increasing or decreasing the precipitation rates. Aerosol effects produce an increase of incoming radiation over Atlantic Ocean (up to 70%) because the prescribed aerosol concentrations in the WRF-Chem without feedbacks is substantially higher than the aerosol concentrations produced when we activate the feedback effects. The decrease in solar radiation in the Sahara area (10%) is found to be produced because the prescribed aerosol concentration in the {sup n}o feedback{sup s}imulation is lower than when we activate the feedback effects. (Author)

  4. Applying Cellular Automata for Simulating and Assessing Urban Growth Scenario Based in Nairobi, Kenya

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kenneth Mubea

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This research explores urban growth based scenarios for the city of Nairobi using a cellular automata urban growth model (UGM. African cities have experienced rapid urbanization over the last decade due to increased population growth and high economic activities. We used multi-temporal Landsat imageries for 1976, 1986, 2000 and 2010 to investigate urban land-use changes in Nairobi. Our UGM used data from urban land-use of 1986 and 2010, road data, slope data and exclusion layer. Monte-Carlo technique was used for model calibration and Multi Resolution Validation (MRV technique for validation. Simulation of urban land-use was done up to the year 2030 when Kenya plans to attain Vision 2030. Three scenarios were explored in the urban modelling process; unmanaged growth with no restriction on environmental areas, managed growth with moderate protection, and a managed growth with maximum protection on forest, agricultural areas, and urban green. Thus alternative scenario development using UGM is useful for planning purposes so as to ensure sustainable development is achieved. UGM provides quantitative, visual, spatial and temporal information which aid policy and decision makers can make informed decisions.

  5. Vulnerabilities to agricultural production shocks: An extreme, plausible scenario for assessment of risk for the insurance sector

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tobias Lunt

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate risks pose a threat to the function of the global food system and therefore also a hazard to the global financial sector, the stability of governments, and the food security and health of the world’s population. This paper presents a method to assess plausible impacts of an agricultural production shock and potential materiality for global insurers. A hypothetical, near-term, plausible, extreme scenario was developed based upon modules of historical agricultural production shocks, linked under a warm phase El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO meteorological framework. The scenario included teleconnected floods and droughts in disparate agricultural production regions around the world, as well as plausible, extreme biotic shocks. In this scenario, global crop yield declines of 10% for maize, 11% for soy, 7% for wheat and 7% for rice result in quadrupled commodity prices and commodity stock fluctuations, civil unrest, significant negative humanitarian consequences and major financial losses worldwide. This work illustrates a need for the scientific community to partner across sectors and industries towards better-integrated global data, modeling and analytical capacities, to better respond to and prepare for concurrent agricultural failure. Governments, humanitarian organizations and the private sector collectively may recognize significant benefits from more systematic assessment of exposure to agricultural climate risk.

  6. Assessment of droughts at a continental scale under different climate change scenarios. Case study: La Plata Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sordo-Ward, Alvaro; Iglesias, Ana; Garrote, Luis; Bejarano, Maria Dolores; Asenjo, Victor; Bianucci, Paola

    2016-04-01

    In this study, we characterized and diagnosed the droughts across La Plata Basin for the reference (1961 - 2005) and future (2007 - 2040, 2041 - 2070 and 2071 - 2099) scenarios. La Plata Basin is located in the Centre-South of South America and comprises 3.174.229 km2 and five countries. Despite the significant impact of droughts on agriculture, cattle, water supply, natural water courses and wetlands, droughts are still difficult to predict in the region, both in time and space. We used the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) to characterize droughts based on Potential Evapotranspiration (PET) and Precipitation (P) at a monthly scale. PET and P were obtained for all 10 x 10 km-size cells within the basin by using the regional climatic model Eta, under the boundary conditions of the HadGEM2-ES model and the CO2 emissions scenario RCP 4.5. Cell to cell information was integrated into a sub-basin level in order to show and analyze the results. For each sub-basin, climate scenario, and temporal scale of SPEI (1, 3, 6 and 12 months), we identified the beginning of each drought, calculated its duration, magnitude, maximum and mean intensities, and the duration between drought events. Additionally, for each SPEI temporal scale and sub-basin, we described the spatial coverage of droughts for the temporal series of all climate scenarios. Spatially, we found a decrease of PET from North to South. Temporally, results showed a future increase of PET for the Paraguay river basin and upper Parana river basin but similar to present values for the remaining basin. Results showed that P will be similar in the future for the Paraguay river basin and upper Parana river basin, but will increase within the remaining basin. During the 2007 - 2040 scenario, we expect that the northern sub-basins suffer from several droughts while the southern ones have wetter climate with few short drought events. As we analyzed more distant future scenarios the wet climate

  7. LCA of beverage cups with special focus on the effect of end-of-life scenarios on the assessment results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Haekkinen, T.; Vares, S.

    2009-12-15

    Environmental impacts of a beverage cup concept were studied with help of life cycle assessment methodology with specific focus on end-of life scenarios. Carton based products were compared with polymer based products. The cartonbased cups were covered either with polyethene (PE) or polylactide (PLA). The polymer based cups were made of polyethylene terephthalate (PET). The paper studies the environmental impacts of production and alternative end-of-life scenarios and discusses the significance of the research frame related decisions. The focus is on global warming potential. The paper shows that significant improvements can be achieved through the choice of raw materials and optimal end-of-life. In order to avoid a situation where the results provoke more confusion than develop improved understanding, the LCA results should not be taken as fixed but the LCA should rather be seen as a tool which supports the manufacturer in the formulation of guidelines for product's end-of-life. (orig.)

  8. LONG-TERM GLOBAL WATER USE PROJECTIONS USING SIX SOCIOECONOMIC SCENARIOS IN AN INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT MODELING FRAMEWORK

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Edmonds, James A.; Clarke, Leon E.; Kyle, G. Page; Davies, Evan; Chaturvedi, Vaibhav; Wise, Marshall A.; Patel, Pralit L.; Eom, Jiyong; Calvin, Katherine V.; Moss, Richard H.; Kim, Son H.

    2014-01-19

    In this paper, we assess future water demands for the agricultural (irrigation and livestock), energy (electricity generation, primary energy production and processing), industrial (manufacturing and mining), and municipal sectors, by incorporating water demands into a technologically-detailed global integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, and climate change – the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). Base-year water demands—both gross withdrawals and net consumptive use—are assigned to specific modeled activities in a way that maximizes consistency between bottom-up estimates of water demand intensities of specific technologies and practices, and top-down regional and sectoral estimates of water use. The energy, industrial, and municipal sectors are represented in fourteen geopolitical regions, with the agricultural sector further disaggregated into as many as eighteen agro-ecological zones (AEZs) within each region. We assess future water demands representing six socioeconomic scenarios, with no constraints imposed by future water supplies. The scenarios observe increases in global water withdrawals from 3,578 km3 year-1 in 2005 to 5,987 – 8,374 km3 year-1 in 2050, and to 4,719 – 12,290 km3 year-1 in 2095. Comparing the projected total regional water withdrawals to the historical supply of renewable freshwater, the Middle East exhibits the highest levels of water scarcity throughout the century, followed by India; water scarcity increases over time in both of these regions. In contrast, water scarcity improves in some regions with large base-year electric sector withdrawals, such as the USA and Canada, due to capital stock turnover and the almost complete phase-out of once-through flow cooling systems. The scenarios indicate that: 1) water is likely a limiting factor in climate change mitigation policies, 2) many regions can be expected to increase reliance on non-renewable groundwater, water reuse, and desalinated water, but they also

  9. Situation and threat assessment for urban scenarios in a distributed adaptive system

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Broek, S.P. van den; Hanckmann, P.; Ditzel, M.

    2011-01-01

    An approach for decision support, consisting of situation and threat assessment is described, as part of a distributed and adaptive multi-sensor fusion engine. The decision support module combines the management and assessment components for situations and threats. The situation assessment determine

  10. On the need for bias correction in regional climate scenarios to assess climate change impacts on river runoff

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. J. Muerth

    2013-03-01

    of uncertainty. If not, the application of bias correction methods is either unnecessary to obtain the change signal in hydro-climatic projections, or safe to use for the production of present and future river runoff scenarios as it does not alter the change signal. The results of the present paper highlight the analysis of daily runoff simulated with four different hydrological models in two natural-flow catchments, driven by different regional climate models for a reference and a future period. As expected, bias correction of climate model outputs is important for the reproduction of the runoff regime of the past, regardless of the hydrological model used. Then again, its impact on the relative change of flow indicators between reference and future periods is weak for most indicators, with the exception of the timing of the spring flood peak. Still, our results indicate that the impact of bias correction on runoff indicators increases with bias in the climate simulations.

  11. Intravascular ultrasound assessment of remodelling and reference segment plaque burden in type-2 diabetic patients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Lisette Okkels; Thayssen, Per; Mintz, Gary S;

    2007-01-01

    with type-2 diabetes mellitus. METHODS AND RESULTS: We used pre-intervention IVUS to study 62 de novo lesions in 43 patients with type-2 diabetes mellitus. The lesion site was the image slice with the smallest lumen cross-sectional area (CSA). The proximal and distal reference segments were the most normal...... size [slope = -0.12 (95% CI -0.17 to -0.07); P type-2 diabetes mellitus. CONCLUSION: Lesions in type-2 diabetic patients are different from previous reports in non-diabetics. Lesions in type-2 diabetics are characterized by a large reference segment plaque burden......AIMS: Intravascular ultrasound (IVUS) assesses arterial remodelling by comparing the lesion external elastic membrane (EEM) with the reference segments; however, reference segments are rarely disease-free. The aim was to assess lesion and reference segment remodelling and plaque burden in patients...

  12. Bridging information requirements and information needs assessment: do scenarios and vignettes provide a link?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christine Urquhart

    2001-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the paper is to compare the philosophies of the vignette and critical incident techniques in information behaviour research, with the methodologies used in object oriented analysis such as use case scenarios and CRC (class, responsibility, collaboration cards. The principles of object oriented analysis are outlined, noting the emphasis on obtaining the "storyline" or "scripts" for information requirements analysis through use cases and CRC cards.  The critical incident technique and vignettes are used to obtain valid interpretations of users" information behaviour, using a storyline approach for data collection (and analysis which is similar to that of object oriented analysis. Some examples illustrate how techniques developed in object oriented analysis could be used for data display in information behaviour studies. Concludes that the methods developed by software engineering could be adapted usefully for information behaviour research.

  13. Tsunami scenarios and hazard assessment along the northern coast of Haiti

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gailler, A.; Calais, E.; Hébert, H.; Roy, C.; Okal, E.

    2015-12-01

    The northeastern Caribbean island arc, which materializes the boundary between the North American and Caribbean plates, is particularly exposed to large earthquakes and tsunamis. The low level of preparedness of a large part of its population and the lack of risk reduction provisions in public policies in many countries of the region put their population and economy at high risk in case of large telluric events. Here, we investigate the impact of three possible earthquake scenarios, consistent with the regional seismotectonic setting, on northern Haiti through inundation by tsunami waves. These scenarios simulate the effect of a M8.0 earthquake on the Septentrional strike-slip fault (possibly similar to the 1842 earthquake), a M8.1 earthquake on the offshore thrust fault system north of Haiti, and an earthquake rupturing a large portion of the offshore thrust fault system north of Haiti and the Dominican Republic. We calculate run-up heights along the northern coast of Haiti, in particular in the densely populated Cap Haitien. We find that the rupture of the offshore North Hispaniola thrust fault could result in wave heights up to 10 m with inundation up to 4 km inland, with only 10-15 min between ground shaking and the first wave arrivals. The city of Cap Haitien is particularly exposed, with potential flooding of most of the city and its suburbs, including the international airport. We also find that the historical reports available for the 1842 earthquake, when compared to our simulations, favor a rupture of the North Hispaniola thrust fault, although much uncertainty remains. If the 1842 earthquake did not rupture the Septentional fault offshore Haiti, then it is currently capable of at least a Mw7.7 earthquake, significantly larger than previously thought. The simulations presented here provide a basis for developing conservative maps of run-up heights that can be transferred, with added factors of safety, into practical implementation for tsunami preparedness

  14. Environmental implications of United States coal exports: a comparative life cycle assessment of future power system scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bohnengel, Barrett; Patiño-Echeverri, Dalia; Bergerson, Joule

    2014-08-19

    Stricter emissions requirements on coal-fired power plants together with low natural gas prices have contributed to a recent decline in the use of coal for electricity generation in the United States. Faced with a shrinking domestic market, many coal companies are taking advantage of a growing coal export market. As a result, U.S. coal exports hit an all-time high in 2012, fueled largely by demand in Asia. This paper presents a comparative life cycle assessment of two scenarios: a baseline scenario in which coal continues to be burned domestically for power generation, and an export scenario in which coal is exported to Asia. For the coal export scenario we focus on the Morrow Pacific export project being planned in Oregon by Ambre Energy that would ship 8.8 million tons of Powder River Basin (PRB) coal annually to Asian markets via rail, river barge, and ocean vessel. Air emissions (SOx, NOx, PM10 and CO2e) results assuming that the exported coal is burned for electricity generation in South Korea are compared to those of a business as usual case in which Oregon and Washington's coal plants, Boardman and Centralia, are retrofitted to comply with EPA emissions standards and continue their coal consumption. Findings show that although the environmental impacts of shipping PRB coal to Asia are significant, the combination of superior energy efficiency among newer South Korean coal-fired power plants and lower emissions from U.S. replacement of coal with natural gas could lead to a greenhouse gas reduction of 21% in the case that imported PRB coal replaces other coal sources in this Asian country. If instead PRB coal were to replace natural gas or nuclear generation in South Korea, greenhouse gas emissions per unit of electricity generated would increase. Results are similar for other air emissions such as SOx, NOx and PM. This study provides a framework for comparing energy export scenarios and highlights the importance of complete life cycle assessment in

  15. Assessment of the Future Health Burden Attributable to Undernutrition under the Latest Scenario Framework for Climate Change Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ishida, Hiroyuki; Kobayashi, Shota; Yoshikawa, Sayaka; Kanae, Shinjiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Shin, Yonghee; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Masui, Toshihiko; Tanaka, Akemi; Honda, Yasushi

    2014-05-01

    There are growing concerns that future food security will be negatively affected by various factors, such as changes in socioeconomic and climate conditions. The health burden attributable to childhood undernutrition is among the most severe problems related to food crisis in the world. This study assessed the health burden attributable to childhood underweight through 2050 focusing on disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), by considering the latest scenarios for climate change studies (Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)) and conducting sensitivity analysis. We used three SSPs (SSP1, SSP2 and SSP3) as future population and gross domestic products (GDP), three RCPs (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for a greenhouse gas emissions constraint, and 12 Global Circulation Models (12 GCMs) to estimate climate conditions. A regression model for estimating DALYs attributable to childhood underweight (DAtU) was developed using the relationship between DAtU and childhood stunting. A logarithmic relationship was proposed for the regression model. We combined a global computable general equilibrium model, a crop model (M-GAEZ), and two regression models to assess the future health burden. We found that i) world total DAtU decreases from 2005 by 23 ~ 60% in 2030 depending on the socioeconomic scenarios. DAtU decreases further by 2050 for SSP1 and SSP2 scenario, whereas it slightly increases for SSP3. Per capita DAtU also decreases in all regions under either scenario in 2050, but the decreases vary significantly by regions and scenarios. ii) the impact of climate change is relatively small in the framework of this study but, on the other hand, socioeconomic conditions have a great impact on the future health burden. The impact of changes in socioeconomic conditions on the health burden is greater in the regions where current health burden is high. iii) parameter uncertainty of the regression models is the second largest factor on

  16. Assessing groundwater pollution hazard changes under different socio-economic and environmental scenarios in an agricultural watershed.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lima, M Lourdes; Romanelli, Asunción; Massone, Héctor E

    2015-10-15

    This paper proposes a modeling approach for assessing changes in groundwater pollution hazard under two different socio-economic and environmental scenarios: The first one considers an exponential growth of agriculture land-use (Relegated Sustainability), while the other deals with regional economic growth, taking into account, the restrictions put on natural resources use (Sustainability Reforms). The recent (2011) and forecasted (2030) groundwater pollution hazard is evaluated based on hydrogeological parameters and, the impact of land-use changes in the groundwater system, coupling together a land-use change model (Dyna-CLUE) with a groundwater flow model (MODFLOW), as inputs to a decision system support (EMDS). The Dulce Stream Watershed (Pampa Plain, Argentina) was chosen to test the usefulness and utility of this proposed method. It includes a high level of agricultural activities, significant local extraction of groundwater resources for drinking water and irrigation and extensive available data regarding aquifer features. The Relegated Sustainability Scenario showed a negative change in the aquifer system, increasing (+20%; high-very high classes) the contribution to groundwater pollution hazard throughout the watershed. On the other hand, the Sustainability Reforms Scenario displayed more balanced land-use changes with a trend towards sustainability, therefore proposing a more acceptable change in the aquifer system for 2030 with a possible 2% increase (high-very high classes) in groundwater pollution hazard. Results in the recent scenario (2011) showed that 54% of Dulce Stream Watershed still shows a moderate to a very low contribution to groundwater pollution hazard (mainly in the lower area). Therefore, from the point of view of natural resource management, this is a positive aspect, offering possibilities for intervention in order to prevent deterioration and protect this aquifer system. However, since it is quite possible that this aquifer status (i

  17. Validation of a scenario-based assessment of critical thinking using an externally validated tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buur, Jennifer L; Schmidt, Peggy; Smylie, Dean; Irizarry, Kris; Crocker, Carlos; Tyler, John; Barr, Margaret

    2012-01-01

    With medical education transitioning from knowledge-based curricula to competency-based curricula, critical thinking skills have emerged as a major competency. While there are validated external instruments for assessing critical thinking, many educators have created their own custom assessments of critical thinking. However, the face validity of these assessments has not been challenged. The purpose of this study was to compare results from a custom assessment of critical thinking with the results from a validated external instrument of critical thinking. Students from the College of Veterinary Medicine at Western University of Health Sciences were administered a custom assessment of critical thinking (ACT) examination and the externally validated instrument, California Critical Thinking Skills Test (CCTST), in the spring of 2011. Total scores and sub-scores from each exam were analyzed for significant correlations using Pearson correlation coefficients. Significant correlations between ACT Blooms 2 and deductive reasoning and total ACT score and deductive reasoning were demonstrated with correlation coefficients of 0.24 and 0.22, respectively. No other statistically significant correlations were found. The lack of significant correlation between the two examinations illustrates the need in medical education to externally validate internal custom assessments. Ultimately, the development and validation of custom assessments of non-knowledge-based competencies will produce higher quality medical professionals.

  18. Application of the WHO Growth Reference (2007) to Assess the Nutritional Status of Children in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YAN-PING LI; XIAO-QI HU; JING-ZHAO; XIAO-GUANG YANG; GUAN-SHENG MA

    2009-01-01

    Objective To assess the nutrition status of children and adolescents in China using the WHO growth reference (2007) in comparison with that defined by the International Obesity Task Force (IOTF) and the Working Group on Obesity in China (WGOC). Methods Overweight and obesity were defined by age-, sex-, specific BMI reference developed by WHO (2007), IOTF (2000), and WGOC (2004), respectively. Stunting and thinness were defined as height and BMI less than two standard deviations (SD) of the WHO growth reference (2007), respectively. Data of children and adolescents aged 5 to 19 years (n=54 857, 28 273 boys, 26 584 girls) from the 2002 China National Nutrition and Health Survey (CNNHS) were used in the study. Results The prevalence of overweight, obesity, stunting and thinness among Chinese children and adolescents aged 5-19 years was 5.0%, 1.2%, 13.8%, and 7.4%, respectively when the WHO growth reference (2007) was used, whereas the estimated absolute total number affected by these 4 conditions were 14.6, 3.7, 40.6, and 21.8 million, respectively. The prevalence of overweight and obesity was 18.1% in large cities, while the stunting prevalence was 25.1% in rural 4. Obesity prevalence assessed by the WHO growth reference was higher than that as assessed by the IOTF reference, and obesity prevalence assessed by the WGOC reference was lower than that as assessed by the IOTF reference. Conclusion The nutritional status of children and adolescents is not equal in different areas of China. Stunting is still the main health problem of the poor, while overweight and obesity are the main health problems in large cities.

  19. An integrated assessment of energy-water nexus at the state level in the United States: Projections and analyses under different scenarios through 2095

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, L.; Patel, P. L.; Hejazi, M. I.; Kyle, P.; Davies, E. G.; Zhou, Y.; Clarke, L.; Edmonds, J.

    2013-12-01

    Water withdrawals for thermoelectric power plants account for approximately half of the total water use in the United States. With growing electricity demands in the future and limited water supplies in many water-scarce states in the U.S., grasping the trade-off between energy and water requires an integrated modeling approach that can capture the interactions among energy, water availability, climate, technology, and economic factors at various scales. In this study, the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), a technologically-detailed integrated model of the economy, energy, agriculture and land use, water, and climate systems, with 14 geopolitical regions that are further dissaggregated into up to 18 agro-ecological zones, was extended to model the electricity and water systems at the state level in the U.S. More specifically, GCAM was employed to estimate future state-level electricity generation and demands, and the associated water withdrawals and consumptions under a set of six scenarios with extensive levels of details on generation fuel portfolio, cooling technology mix, and water use intensities. The state-level estimates were compared against available inventories where good agreement was achieved on national and regional levels. We then explored the electric-sector water use up to 2095, focusing on implications from: 1) socioeconomics and growing demands, 2) the adoption of climate mitigation policy (e.g., RCP4.5 W/m2 vs. a reference scenario), 3) the transition of cooling systems, 4) constraints on electricity trading across states (full trading vs. limited trading), and 5) the adoption of water saving technologies. Overall, the fast retirement of once-through cooling, together with the gradual transition from fossil fuels dominant to a mixture of different fuels, accelerate the decline of water withdrawals and correspondingly compensate consumptive water use. Results reveal that U.S. electricity generation expands significantly as population grows

  20. Life cycle assessment of integrated waste management systems for alternative legacy scenarios of the London Olympic Park

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Parkes, Olga, E-mail: o.parkes@ucl.ac.uk; Lettieri, Paola, E-mail: p.lettieri@ucl.ac.uk; Bogle, I. David L.

    2015-06-15

    Highlights: • Application of LCA in planning integrated waste management systems. • Environmental valuation of 3 legacy scenarios for the Olympic Park. • Hot-spot analysis highlights the importance of energy and materials recovery. • Most environmental savings are achieved through materials recycling. • Sensitivity analysis shows importance of waste composition and recycling rates. - Abstract: This paper presents the results of the life cycle assessment (LCA) of 10 integrated waste management systems (IWMSs) for 3 potential post-event site design scenarios of the London Olympic Park. The aim of the LCA study is to evaluate direct and indirect emissions resulting from various treatment options of municipal solid waste (MSW) annually generated on site together with avoided emissions resulting from energy, materials and nutrients recovery. IWMSs are modelled using GaBi v6.0 Product Sustainability software and results are presented based on the CML (v.Nov-10) characterisation method. The results show that IWMSs with advanced thermal treatment (ATT) and incineration with energy recovery have the lowest Global Warming Potential (GWP) than IWMSs where landfill is the primary waste treatment process. This is due to higher direct emissions and lower avoided emissions from the landfill process compared to the emissions from the thermal treatment processes. LCA results demonstrate that significant environmental savings are achieved through substitution of virgin materials with recycled ones. The results of the sensitivity analysis carried out for IWMS 1 shows that increasing recycling rate by 5%, 10% and 15% compared to the baseline scenario can reduce GWP by 8%, 17% and 25% respectively. Sensitivity analysis also shows how changes in waste composition affect the overall result of the system. The outcomes of such assessments provide decision-makers with fundamental information regarding the environmental impacts of different waste treatment options necessary for

  1. Integrated life-cycle assessment of electricity-supply scenarios confirms global environmental benefit of low-carbon technologies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hertwich, Edgar G; Gibon, Thomas; Bouman, Evert A; Arvesen, Anders; Suh, Sangwon; Heath, Garvin A; Bergesen, Joseph D; Ramirez, Andrea; Vega, Mabel I; Shi, Lei

    2015-05-19

    Decarbonization of electricity generation can support climate-change mitigation and presents an opportunity to address pollution resulting from fossil-fuel combustion. Generally, renewable technologies require higher initial investments in infrastructure than fossil-based power systems. To assess the tradeoffs of increased up-front emissions and reduced operational emissions, we present, to our knowledge, the first global, integrated life-cycle assessment (LCA) of long-term, wide-scale implementation of electricity generation from renewable sources (i.e., photovoltaic and solar thermal, wind, and hydropower) and of carbon dioxide capture and storage for fossil power generation. We compare emissions causing particulate matter exposure, freshwater ecotoxicity, freshwater eutrophication, and climate change for the climate-change-mitigation (BLUE Map) and business-as-usual (Baseline) scenarios of the International Energy Agency up to 2050. We use a vintage stock model to conduct an LCA of newly installed capacity year-by-year for each region, thus accounting for changes in the energy mix used to manufacture future power plants. Under the Baseline scenario, emissions of air and water pollutants more than double whereas the low-carbon technologies introduced in the BLUE Map scenario allow a doubling of electricity supply while stabilizing or even reducing pollution. Material requirements per unit generation for low-carbon technologies can be higher than for conventional fossil generation: 11-40 times more copper for photovoltaic systems and 6-14 times more iron for wind power plants. However, only two years of current global copper and one year of iron production will suffice to build a low-carbon energy system capable of supplying the world's electricity needs in 2050.

  2. Proposals for enhanced health risk assessment and stratification in an integrated care scenario

    OpenAIRE

    Dueñas-Espín, Ivan; Vela, Emili; Pauws, Steffen; Bescos, Cristina; Cano, Isaac; Cleries, Montserrat; Contel, Joan Carles; de Manuel Keenoy, Esteban; Garcia-Aymerich, Judith; Gomez-Cabrero, David; Kaye, Rachelle; Lahr, Maarten M H; Lluch-Ariet, Magí; Moharra, Montserrat; Monterde, David

    2016-01-01

    Objectives: Population-based health risk assessment and stratification are considered highly relevant for large-scale implementation of integrated care by facilitating services design and case identification. The principal objective of the study was to analyse five health-risk assessment strategies and health indicators used in the five regions participating in the Advancing Care Coordination and Telehealth Deployment (ACT) programme (http://www.act-programme.eu). The second purpose was to el...

  3. Assessing hydrologic impacts of future Land Change scenarios in the San Pedro River (U.S./Mexico)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kepner, W. G.; Burns, S.; Sidman, G.; Levick, L.; Goodrich, D. C.; Guertin, P.; Yee, W.; Scianni, M.

    2012-12-01

    An approach was developed to characterize the hydrologic impacts of urban expansion through time for the San Pedro River, a watershed of immense international importance that straddles the U.S./Mexico border. Future urban growth is a key driving force altering local and regional hydrology and is represented by decadal changes in housing density maps from 2010 to 2100 derived from the Integrated Climate and Land-Use Scenarios (ICLUS) database. ICLUS developed future housing density maps by adapting the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) social, economic, and demographic storylines to the conterminous United States. To characterize the hydrologic impacts of future growth, the housing density maps were reclassified to National Land Cover Database 2006 land cover classes and used to parameterize the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) using the Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment (AGWA) tool. The presentation will report 1) the methodology for adapting the ICLUS data for use in AGWA as an approach to evaluate basin-wide impacts of development on water-quantity and -quality, 2) initial results of the application of the methodology, and 3) discuss implications of the analysis.

  4. Improving NPP availability using thermalhydraulic integral plant models. Assessment and application of turbine run back scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Reventos, F. [ANACNV, l' Hospitalet de l' Infant, Tarragona (Spain)]|[Technical University of Catalonia, UPC (Spain); Llopis, C.; Pretel, C. [Technical University of Catalonia, UPC (Spain); Posada, J.M.; Moreno, P. [Pablo Moreno S.A. (Spain)

    2001-07-01

    ANAV is the utility responsible of Asco and Vandellos Nuclear Power Plants, a two-unit and a single unit 1000 MW PWR plant, respectively. Both plants, Asco and Vandellos, are in normal operation since 1983 and 1987 and have undergone different important improvements like: steam generators and turbine substitution, power up-rating... Best estimate simulation by means of the thermal-hydraulic integral models of operating nuclear power plants are today impressively helpful for utilities in their purpose of improving availability and keeping safety level. ANAV is currently using Relap5/mod3.2 models of both plants for different purposes related to safety, operation, engineering and training. Turbine run-back system is designed to avoid reactor trips, and it does so in the existing plants, when the key parameters are correctly adjusted. The fine adjustment of such parameters was traditionally performed following the results of control simulators. Such simulators used a fully developed set of control equations and a quite simplified thermal-hydraulic feed-back. Boundary scenarios were considered in order to overcome the difficulties generated by simplification. (author)

  5. Assessing the impacts of climate change on the forested watersheds in Korea using RCM scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jung, H.; Yoon, J. H.; Jeon, S. W.

    2015-12-01

    Climate change has significant effects on water resources in Korea, where about the 70% of areas are forested, by direct and indirect ways such as changes in forest species distribution and the growth rates. We explored the effect of climate change on water balance in the eight forested DAM watersheds by using a process-based hydrological model which integrates the various mechanisms of forest hydrology and developed the simplified impact response model to quantify the regional-scale impacts. As the first step of study, the GIS-based BROOK90 (gB90), operated on a grid resolution of 5×5 arc minute resolution under the RCP-based regional climate model (RCM) scenarios. To separate the effects of ecosystem functioning and distribution changes from the overall runoff change, modeling has conducted based on the three novel approaches of climate change with a doubled CO2 concentration, increases in the deciduous forest fraction at each watershed, and three RCM climate change. The results of the process-based model study are extended to develop the impact response model to assist policy makers to derive informed decisions in land, forest and water management.

  6. Serviceability Assessment for Cascading Failures in Water Distribution Network under Seismic Scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qing Shuang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The stability of water service is a hot point in industrial production, public safety, and academic research. The paper establishes a service evaluation model for the water distribution network (WDN. The serviceability is measured in three aspects: (1 the functionality of structural components under disaster environment; (2 the recognition of cascading failure process; and (3 the calculation of system reliability. The node and edge failures in WDN are interrelated under seismic excitations. The cascading failure process is provided with the balance of water supply and demand. The matrix-based system reliability (MSR method is used to represent the system events and calculate the nonfailure probability. An example is used to illustrate the proposed method. The cascading failure processes with different node failures are simulated. The serviceability is analyzed. The critical node can be identified. The result shows that the aged network has a greater influence on the system service under seismic scenario. The maintenance could improve the antidisaster ability of WDN. Priority should be given to controlling the time between the initial failure and the first secondary failure, for taking postdisaster emergency measures within this time period can largely cut down the spread of cascade effect in the whole WDN.

  7. Assessing Student Learning Outcomes from Reference Desk Interactions in an Academic Library: An Exploratory Study

    OpenAIRE

    McCarthy, Patrick

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents the results of a preliminary study designed to examine the feasibility of conducting research into the learning outcomes associated with research consultation between reference librarians and university students. The researcher studied the teaching taking place at an academic library reference desk and assessed the student’s ability to apply what was taught to a new information need. The results indicate that participant awareness of library resources increased and their s...

  8. Optimal reference interval for homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance in a Japanese population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamada, Chizumi; Mitsuhashi, Toshitake; Hiratsuka, Noboru; Inabe, Fumiyo; Araida, Nami; Takahashi, Eiko

    2011-10-07

    The aim of the present study was to establish a reference interval for homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) in a Japanese population based on the C28-A3 document from the Clinical and Laboratory Standards Institute (CLSI). We selected healthy subjects aged 20-79 years, with fasting plasma glucose reference limits of HOMA-IR. We selected 2173 subjects as reference individuals, and 2153 subjects were used for analysis. The reference interval for HOMA-IR was established as between 0.4 and 2.4. This represents the first reference interval study for HOMA-IR that applies the stringent CLSI C28-A3 document. HOMA-IR ≥ 2.5 should be considered a reasonable indicator of insulin resistance in Japanese. (J Diabetes Invest, doi: 10.1111/j.2040-1124.2011.00113.x, 2011).

  9. Toward refined environmental scenarios for ecological risk assessment of down-the-drain chemicals in freshwater environments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franco, Antonio; Price, Oliver R; Marshall, Stuart; Jolliet, Olivier; Van den Brink, Paul J; Rico, Andreu; Focks, Andreas; De Laender, Frederik; Ashauer, Roman

    2017-03-01

    Current regulatory practice for chemical risk assessment suffers from the lack of realism in conventional frameworks. Despite significant advances in exposure and ecological effect modeling, the implementation of novel approaches as high-tier options for prospective regulatory risk assessment remains limited, particularly among general chemicals such as down-the-drain ingredients. While reviewing the current state of the art in environmental exposure and ecological effect modeling, we propose a scenario-based framework that enables a better integration of exposure and effect assessments in a tiered approach. Global- to catchment-scale spatially explicit exposure models can be used to identify areas of higher exposure and to generate ecologically relevant exposure information for input into effect models. Numerous examples of mechanistic ecological effect models demonstrate that it is technically feasible to extrapolate from individual-level effects to effects at higher levels of biological organization and from laboratory to environmental conditions. However, the data required to parameterize effect models that can embrace the complexity of ecosystems are large and require a targeted approach. Experimental efforts should, therefore, focus on vulnerable species and/or traits and ecological conditions of relevance. We outline key research needs to address the challenges that currently hinder the practical application of advanced model-based approaches to risk assessment of down-the-drain chemicals. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2017;13:233-248. © 2016 SETAC.

  10. Fast track NTR systems assessment for NASA's first lunar outpost scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borowski, Stanley K.; Alexander, Stephen W.

    1994-10-01

    Integrated systems and mission study results are presented which quantify the rationale and benefits for developing and using nuclear thermal rocket (NTR) technology for returning humans to the moon in the early 2000's. At present, the Exploration Program Office (ExPO) is considering chemical propulsion for its 'First Lunar Outpost' (FLO) mission, and NTR propulsion for the more demanding Mars missions to follow. The use of an NTR-based lunar transfer stage, capable of evolving to Mars mission applications, could result in an accelerated schedule, reduced cost approach to moon/Mars exploration. Lunar mission applications would also provide valuable operational experience and serve as a 'proving ground' for NTR engine and stage technologies. In terms of performance benefits, studies indicate that an expendable NTR stage powered by two 50 klbf engines can deliver approximately 96 metric tons (t) to trans-lunar injection (TLI) conditions for an initial mass in low earth orbit (IMLEO) of approximately 199 t compared to 250 t for a cryogenic chemical TLI stage. The NTR stage liquid hydrogen (LH2) tank has a 10 m diameter, 14.8 m length, and 68 t LH2 capacity. The NTR utilizes a 'graphite' fuel form consisting of coated UC2 particles in a graphite substrate, and has a specific impulse capability of approximately 870 s, and an engine thrust-to-weight ratio of approximately 4.8. The NTR stage and its piloted FLO lander has a total length of approximately 38 m and can be launched by a single Saturn V-derived heavy lift launch vehicle (HLLV) in the 200 to 250 t-class range. The paper summarizes NASA's First Lunar Outpost scenario, describes characteristics for representative engine/stage configurations, and examines the impact on engine selection and vehicle design resulting from a consideration of alternative NTR fuel forms and lunar mission profiles.

  11. Fast evaluation of tsunami scenarios: uncertainty assessment for a Mediterranean Sea database

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molinari, Irene; Tonini, Roberto; Lorito, Stefano; Piatanesi, Alessio; Romano, Fabrizio; Melini, Daniele; Hoechner, Andreas; Gonzàlez Vida, José M.; Maciás, Jorge; Castro, Manuel J.; de la Asunción, Marc

    2016-12-01

    We present a database of pre-calculated tsunami waveforms for the entire Mediterranean Sea, obtained by numerical propagation of uniformly spaced Gaussian-shaped elementary sources for the sea level elevation. Based on any initial sea surface displacement, the database allows the fast calculation of full waveforms at the 50 m isobath offshore of coastal sites of interest by linear superposition. A computationally inexpensive procedure is set to estimate the coefficients for the linear superposition based on the potential energy of the initial elevation field. The elementary sources size and spacing is fine enough to satisfactorily reproduce the effects of M> = 6.0 earthquakes. Tsunami propagation is modelled by using the Tsunami-HySEA code, a GPU finite volume solver for the non-linear shallow water equations. Like other existing methods based on the initial sea level elevation, the database is independent on the faulting geometry and mechanism, which makes it applicable in any tectonic environment. We model a large set of synthetic tsunami test scenarios, selected to explore the uncertainty introduced when approximating tsunami waveforms and their maxima by fast and simplified linear combination. This is the first time to our knowledge that the uncertainty associated to such a procedure is systematically analysed and that relatively small earthquakes are considered, which may be relevant in the near-field of the source in a complex tectonic setting. We find that non-linearity of tsunami evolution affects the reconstruction of the waveforms and of their maxima by introducing an almost unbiased (centred at zero) error distribution of relatively modest extent. The uncertainty introduced by our approximation can be in principle propagated to forecast results. The resulting product then is suitable for different applications such as probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis, tsunami source inversions and tsunami warning systems.

  12. Sourcebook for energy assessment. [Reference Energy Systems for 1972-2020

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Beller, M. (ed.)

    1975-12-01

    An analytical approach is presented that is broadly applicable to the assessment of energy technologies and policies. Using the Reference Energy System approach, it permits the examination of the economic, environmental, and resource implications resulting from the substitution of one fuel or technology for another. Included as tools for such analyses are the necessary data and methodology, as well as a set of Reference Energy Systems covering the 1972-2020 period to serve as baselines for the perturbation analyses of interest. 46 tables, 25 figures, 71 references.

  13. A Scenario Analysis on the Implementation of a Farm Animal Welfare Assessment System

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ingenbleek, P.T.M.; Blokhuis, H.J.; Butterworth, A.; Keeling, L.J.

    2011-01-01

    There have been important developments in the measurement of farm animal welfare in recent years. Measuring animal welfare is one thing, implementing a farm animal welfare assessment system another. The implementation of such a system occurs in an environment that is influenced by economic, politica

  14. Scenarios of long-term farm structural change for application in climate change impact assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mandryk, M.; Reidsma, P.; Ittersum, van M.K.

    2012-01-01

    Towards 2050, climate change is one of the possible drivers that will change the farming landscape, but market, policy and technological development may be at least equally important. In the last decade, many studies assessed impacts of climate change and specific adaptation strategies. However, ada

  15. Assessing Sediment Yield for Selected Watersheds in the Laurentian Great Lakes Basin Under Future Agricultural Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    In the Laurentian Great Lakes Basin (GLB), corn acreage has been expanding since 2005 in response to high demand for corn as an ethanol feedstock. This study integrated remote sensing-derived products and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) withing a GIS modeling environme...

  16. Hydrologic and Water Quality Assessment of Bioenergy Scenarios for the Boone River Watershed in North Central Iowa, U.S.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gassman, P. W.

    2015-12-01

    he Boone River Watershed (BRW) is an intensively cropped region dominated by corn and soybean production that covers over 237,000 ha in north central Iowa. The BRW is reflective of both current Iowa cropping trends and elevated levels of nutrient pollution in streams. Nitrate losses are of particular concern, much of which escapes the cropland via subsurface tiles that drain the predominantly flat landscapes that characterize the watershed. Phosphorus export to stream systems in the BRW is also a problem of considerable concern. Questions have emerged as to the possible impacts of adopting cellulosic biofuel production systems in Iowa watersheds such as the BRW, which would be developed as function of corn stover removed after harvest or via the introduction of perennial biofuel crops such as switchgrass and miscanthus. In response, a modeling system been constructed for the watershed using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to address biofuel-related water quality and related issues. The specific version of SWAT (SWAT version 2012; Release 615) that is being used in the study features recent modifications made to the source code that corrected inaccuracies in previous codes in regards to simulating removal of corn stover and also the growth of switchgrass and miscanthus. In addition, updated crop growth parameters that more accurately represent the biomass production potential of switchgrass and miscanthus varieties being grown in the U.S. Corn Belt region are being used in this SWAT modeling system. The results of several scenarios are reported here that reflect future cellulosic biofuel scenarios based on 20%, 30% or 50% removal levels of corn stover or widespread adoption of switchgrass and/or miscanthus across much or all of the BRW. Both hydrologic and pollutant loss (sediment, nitrogen and phosphorus) losses are reported for all of the simulated scenarios.

  17. Assessing the impact of climate-change scenarios on landslide occurrence in Umbria Region, Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ciabatta, L.; Camici, S.; Brocca, L.; Ponziani, F.; Stelluti, M.; Berni, N.; Moramarco, T.

    2016-10-01

    Landslides are frequent and widespread geomorphological phenomena causing loss of human life and damage to property. The main tool for assessing landslide risk relies on rainfall thresholds and thus, many countries established early warning systems aimed to landslide hazard assessment. The Umbria Region Civil Protection Centre developed an operational early warning system for landslide risk assessment, named PRESSCA, based on the soil saturation conditions to identify rainfall thresholds. These thresholds, currently used by the Civil Protection operators for the day-by-day landslide hazard assessment, provided satisfactory results with more than 86% of the landslides events correctly identified during the period 1990-2013. In this study, the PRESSCA system was employed for the assessment of climate change impact on landslide hazard in Central Italy. The outputs of five different Global Circulation Models (GCMs) were downscaled and weather generators were used for obtaining hourly rainfall and temperature time series from daily GCMs projection. Then, PRESSCA system was employed to estimate the number of landslide occurrence per year. By comparing results obtained for three different periods (1990-2013 (baseline), 2040-2069 and 2070-2099), for the Umbria territory a general increase in events occurrence was expected (up to more than 40%) in the future period, mainly during the winter season. The results also revealed that the effect of climate change on landslides was not straightforward to identify and the close interaction between rainfall magnitude/intensity, temperature and soil moisture should be analysed in depth. Overall, soil moisture was projected to decrease throughout the year but during the wet season the variations with respect to the present period were very small. Specifically, it was found that during the warm-dry season, due to the strong decrease of soil moisture, even for a sensible increase in rainfall intensity, the landslide occurrence was

  18. Scenario analysis of gas crisis using the European Gas Assessment Model (EUGas)

    OpenAIRE

    RODRIGUEZ GOMEZ NURIA; ZACCARELLI NICOLA; PAMBOUR KWABENA; BOLADO LAVIN Ricardo

    2014-01-01

    The European Gas Assessment model (EUGas) is a country level model of the European gas transmission pipeline network which is being developed by JRC-IET (Joint Research Centre – Institute for Energy and Transport). The model aims at supporting Directive 2008/114/EC on “the identification and designation of European Critical Infrastructure (ECI)” and Regulation 994/2010 on “measures to safeguard security of gas supply”. The hydraulic model of the European gas network is developed using a combi...

  19. An interdisciplinary scenario analysis to assess the water availability and water consumption in the Upper Ouémé catchment in Benin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Giertz

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an interdisciplinary scenario analysis to assess the influence of global and regional change on future water availability and water consumption in the Upper Ouémé catchment in central Benin. For the region three development scenarios were evolved. These scenarios are combined with climate change scenarios based on the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In the mo-delling approach the quantification of the land use/land cover change is performed by the cellular automata model CLUE-S. The future climate scenarios are computed with the regional climate model REMO driven by the global ECHAM model. Using this data different land use and climate change scenarios can be calculated with the conceptual hydrological model UHP-HRU to assess the effects of global changes on the future water availability in Benin. To analyse the future water availability also the water consumption has to be taken into account. Due to high population growth an increase in water need in the future is expected for the region. To calculate the future household water consumption data from a regional survey and demographic projections are used. Development of the water need for animal husbandry is also considered. The first test run of the modelling approach was performed for the development scenario 'business as usual' combined with the IPCC scenario B2 for the year 2025. This test demonstrates the applicability of the approach for an interdisciplinary scenario analysis. A continuous run from 2000–2025 will be simulated for different scenarios as soon as the input data concerning land use/land cover and climate are available.

  20. Women referred for occupational risk assessment in pregnancy have no increased risk of adverse obstetric outcomes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bidstrup, Signe Brøker; Kaerlev, Linda; Thulstrup, Ane Marie;

    2015-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: Our aim was to study the association between pregnant women's referral status for occupational risk assessment, and their risk of preterm delivery (... pregnant women referred to two Danish clinics of occupational medicine (Copenhagen and Aarhus) from 1984 to 2010 were compared with the referred women's 1,077 non-referred pregnancy outcomes and with the pregnancy outcomes of 345,467 gainfully employed women from the same geographical areas and time period....... Logistic regression was used to calculate odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Calculations were adjusted for the mother's age at delivery, parity, ethnicity, socioeconomic status, smoking, and in supplementary analyses for year of birth. RESULTS: Referred women gave birth to children...

  1. Women referred for occupational risk assessment in pregnancy have no increased risk of adverse obstetric outcomes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bidstrup, Signe Brøker; Kaerlev, Linda; Thulstrup, Ane Marie

    2015-01-01

    .72-1.17). CONCLUSION: The women who are referred for occupational risk assessment at two large occupational university departments are not at an increased risk of preterm birth or of delivering low birth weight children. This may reflect that reproductive hazards in Danish workplaces are limited and...

  2. Measurement errors in dietary assessment using duplicate portions as reference method

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Trijsburg, L.E.

    2016-01-01

    Measurement errors in dietary assessment using duplicate portions as reference method Laura Trijsburg Background: As Food Frequency Questionnaires (FFQs) are subject to measurement error, associations between self-reported intake by FFQ and outcome measures should b

  3. Assessment of future scenarios for wind erosion sensitivity changes based on ALADIN and REMO regional climate model simulation data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mezősi Gábor

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available The changes in rate and pattern of wind erosion sensitivity due to climate change were investigated for 2021–2050 and 2071–2100 compared to the reference period (1961–1990 in Hungary. The sensitivities of the main influencing factors (soil texture, vegetation cover and climate factor were evaluated by fuzzy method and a combined wind erosion sensitivity map was compiled. The climate factor, as the driving factor of the changes, was assessed based on observed data for the reference period, while REMO and ALADIN regional climate model simulation data for the future periods. The changes in wind erosion sensitivity were evaluated on potentially affected agricultural land use types, and hot spot areas were allocated. Based on the results, 5–6% of the total agricultural areas were high sensitive areas in the reference period. In the 21st century slight or moderate changes of wind erosion sensitivity can be expected, and mostly ‘pastures’, ‘complex cultivation patterns’, and ‘land principally occupied by agriculture with significant areas of natural vegetation’ are affected. The applied combination of multi-indicator approach and fuzzy analysis provides novelty in the field of land sensitivity assessment. The method is suitable for regional scale analysis of wind erosion sensitivity changes and supports regional planning by allocating priority areas where changes in agro-technics or land use have to be considered.

  4. Assessment of future scenarios for wind erosion sensitivity changes based on ALADIN and REMO regional climate model simulation data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mezősi, Gábor; Blanka, Viktória; Bata, Teodóra; Ladányi, Zsuzsanna; Kemény, Gábor; Meyer, Burghard C.

    2016-07-01

    The changes in rate and pattern of wind erosion sensitivity due to climate change were investigated for 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 compared to the reference period (1961-1990) in Hungary. The sensitivities of the main influencing factors (soil texture, vegetation cover and climate factor) were evaluated by fuzzy method and a combined wind erosion sensitivity map was compiled. The climate factor, as the driving factor of the changes, was assessed based on observed data for the reference period, while REMO and ALADIN regional climate model simulation data for the future periods. The changes in wind erosion sensitivity were evaluated on potentially affected agricultural land use types, and hot spot areas were allocated. Based on the results, 5-6% of the total agricultural areas were high sensitive areas in the reference period. In the 21st century slight or moderate changes of wind erosion sensitivity can be expected, and mostly `pastures', `complex cultivation patterns', and `land principally occupied by agriculture with significant areas of natural vegetation' are affected. The applied combination of multi-indicator approach and fuzzy analysis provides novelty in the field of land sensitivity assessment. The method is suitable for regional scale analysis of wind erosion sensitivity changes and supports regional planning by allocating priority areas where changes in agro-technics or land use have to be considered.

  5. Combining Reference Class Forecasting with Overconfidence Theory for Better Risk Assessment of Transport Infrastructure Investments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Leleur, Steen; Salling, Kim Bang; Pilkauskiene, Inga

    2015-01-01

    Assessing the risks of infrastructure investments has become a topic of growing importance. This is due to a sad record of implemented projects with cost overruns and demand shortfalls leading, in retrospect, to the finding that there is a need for better risk assessment of transport infrastructure...... investments. In the last decade progress has been made by dealing with this situation known as planners’ optimism bias. Especially attention can be drawn to the use of reference class forecasting that has led to adjustment factors that, when used on the estimates of costs and demand, lead to cost......-benefit analysis results that are modified by taking historical risk experience into account. This article seeks to add to this progress in risk assessment methodology in two ways: first it suggests to apply reference class forecasting (RCF) in a flexible way where the effort is focused on formulating the best...

  6. Nuclear Computerized Library for Assessing Reactor Reliability (NUCLARR). Version 3.5, Quick Reference Guide

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gilbert, B.G.; Richards, R.E.; Reece, W.J.; Gertman, D.I.

    1992-10-01

    This Reference Guide contains instructions on how to install and use Version 3.5 of the NRC-sponsored Nuclear Computerized Library for Assessing Reactor Reliability (NUCLARR). The NUCLARR data management system is contained in compressed files on the floppy diskettes that accompany this Reference Guide. NUCLARR is comprised of hardware component failure data (HCFD) and human error probability (HEP) data, both of which are available via a user-friendly, menu driven retrieval system. The data may be saved to a file in a format compatible with IRRAS 3.0 and commercially available statistical packages, or used to formulate log-plots and reports of data retrieval and aggregation findings.

  7. Integrating experimental and numerical methods for a scenario-based quantitative assessment of subsurface energy storage options

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kabuth, Alina; Dahmke, Andreas; Hagrey, Said Attia al; Berta, Márton; Dörr, Cordula; Koproch, Nicolas; Köber, Ralf; Köhn, Daniel; Nolde, Michael; Tilmann Pfeiffer, Wolf; Popp, Steffi; Schwanebeck, Malte; Bauer, Sebastian

    2016-04-01

    Within the framework of the transition to renewable energy sources ("Energiewende"), the German government defined the target of producing 60 % of the final energy consumption from renewable energy sources by the year 2050. However, renewable energies are subject to natural fluctuations. Energy storage can help to buffer the resulting time shifts between production and demand. Subsurface geological structures provide large potential capacities for energy stored in the form of heat or gas on daily to seasonal time scales. In order to explore this potential sustainably, the possible induced effects of energy storage operations have to be quantified for both specified normal operation and events of failure. The ANGUS+ project therefore integrates experimental laboratory studies with numerical approaches to assess subsurface energy storage scenarios and monitoring methods. Subsurface storage options for gas, i.e. hydrogen, synthetic methane and compressed air in salt caverns or porous structures, as well as subsurface heat storage are investigated with respect to site prerequisites, storage dimensions, induced effects, monitoring methods and integration into spatial planning schemes. The conceptual interdisciplinary approach of the ANGUS+ project towards the integration of subsurface energy storage into a sustainable subsurface planning scheme is presented here, and this approach is then demonstrated using the examples of two selected energy storage options: Firstly, the option of seasonal heat storage in a shallow aquifer is presented. Coupled thermal and hydraulic processes induced by periodic heat injection and extraction were simulated in the open-source numerical modelling package OpenGeoSys. Situations of specified normal operation as well as cases of failure in operational storage with leaking heat transfer fluid are considered. Bench-scale experiments provided parameterisations of temperature dependent changes in shallow groundwater hydrogeochemistry. As a

  8. Can we be certain about future land use change in Europe? A multi-scenario, integrated-assessment analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holman, I P; Brown, C; Janes, V; Sandars, D

    2017-02-01

    The global land system is facing unprecedented pressures from growing human populations and climatic change. Understanding the effects these pressures may have is necessary to designing land management strategies that ensure food security, ecosystem service provision and successful climate mitigation and adaptation. However, the number of complex, interacting effects involved makes any complete understanding very difficult to achieve. Nevertheless, the recent development of integrated modelling frameworks allows for the exploration of the co-development of human and natural systems under scenarios of global change, potentially illuminating the main drivers and processes in future land system change. Here, we use one such integrated modelling framework (the CLIMSAVE Integrated Assessment Platform) to investigate the range of projected outcomes in the European land system across climatic and socio-economic scenarios for the 2050s. We find substantial consistency in locations and types of change even under the most divergent conditions, with results suggesting that climate change alone will lead to a contraction in the agricultural and forest area within Europe, particularly in southern Europe. This is partly offset by the introduction of socioeconomic changes that change both the demand for agricultural production, through changing food demand and net imports, and the efficiency of agricultural production. Simulated extensification and abandonment in the Mediterranean region is driven by future decreases in the relative profitability of the agricultural sector in southern Europe, owing to decreased productivity as a consequence of increased heat and drought stress and reduced irrigation water availability. The very low likelihood (land use proportions in many parts of Europe will remain unchanged suggests that future policy should seek to promote and support the multifunctional role of agriculture and forests in different European regions, rather than focusing on

  9. Environmental risk assessment of three selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors in the aquatic environment: a case study including a cocktail scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Styrishave, Bjarne; Halling-Sørensen, Bent; Ingerslev, Flemming

    2011-01-01

    We present an environmental risk assessment of three selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs; citalopram, sertraline, and fluoxetine) in the aquatic environment based on two case scenarios. Abiotic and biotic degradation experiments and sorption estimates were used to predict environmental concentrations of three SSRIs from the wastewater of two psychiatric hospitals, the primary sector, and wastewater entering and leaving wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs). Assuming a sewage treatment retention time of 8 h, abiotic degradation was low, for all three SSRIs inhibitors, ranging between 0 and 2% for hydrolysis and 0 and 6% for photolysis. The biodegradation was also slow, ranging from 0 to 3% within an 8-h period. In untreated sewage, citalopram (CIT) and sertraline (SER) concentrations may be high enough to exert effects on the aquatic biota (CIT: 0.19-10.3 µg/L; SER: 0.14-17.1 µg/L). Removal of the pharmaceuticals is due primarily to sorption in the WWTP. Sertraline was estimated to have the highest concentrations in the sewage effluents, 4.4 and 19.9 ng/L for the two cases, respectively. In treated wastewater, individual SSRI concentrations are probably too low to exert effects on biota. By using concentration addition, a cocktail exposure scenario was estimated. The predicted concentration in the biota calculated from the cocktail effect was 0.05 and 0.16 nmol/g for the two cases, respectively, and SER was found to give the highest contribution to this cocktail effect. The results indicate that the concentrations in the wastewater effluents are one to two orders of magnitude lower than the concentrations likely to cause an effect in the aquatic biota.

  10. Food scenarios 2025

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sundbo, Jon

    2016-01-01

    This article presents the results of a future study of the food sector. Two scenarios have been developed using a combination of: 1) a summary of the relevant scientific knowledge, 2) systematic scenario writing, 3) an expert-based Delphi technique, and 4) an expert seminar assessment. The two...... scenarios present possible futures at global, national (Denmark) and regional (Zealand, Denmark) levels. The main scenario is called ‘Food for ordinary days and celebrations’ (a combination of ‘High-technological food production − The functional society’ and ‘High-gastronomic food − The experience society...

  11. Regional Issue Identification and Assessment (RIIA): an analysis of the Mid-Range Projection Series C Scenario. Executive summary for Federal Region IV

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Honea, B.; Hillsman, E.

    1979-10-01

    The Department of Energy (DOE) has hypothesized a number of alternate energy futures as part of its energy planning and analysis programs. In this report, which is part of DOE's Regional Issue Identification and Assessment (RIIA) Program, Oak Ridge National Laboratory examines how a proposed energy future called the Mid-Range Projection Series C Scenario would affect Federal Region IV (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Tennessee). This scenario, to be called the Series C Scenario, assumes a medium supply and a medium demand for fuel through 1990, and it incorporates the fuel switching provisions of the Energy Supply and Environmental Coordination Act. The report portrays the major regional environmental, human health and safety, socioeconomic, and institutional effects that might result from the implementation of the Series C Scenario.

  12. Assessing hydrological drought risk for the irrigation sector in future climate scenarios: lessons learned from the Apulia case study (Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Critto, Andrea; Torresan, Silvia; Ronco, Paolo; Zennaro, Federica; Santini, Monia; Trabucco, Antonio; Marcomini, Antonio

    2016-04-01

    Climate change is already affecting the frequency of drought events which may threaten the current stocks of water resources and thus the availability of freshwater for the irrigation. The achievement of a sustainable equilibrium between the availability of water resources and the irrigation demand is essentially related to the planning and implementation of evidence-based adaptation strategies and actions. In this sense, the improvement (of existing) and the development of (new) appropriate risk assessment methods and tools to evaluate the impact of drought events on irrigated crops is fundamental in order to assure that the agricultural yields are appropriate to meet the current and future food and market demand. This study evaluates the risk of hydrological drought on the irrigated agronomic compartment of Apulia, a semi-arid region in Southern Italy. We applied a stepwise Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) procedure, based on the consecutive analysis of hazards, exposure, vulnerability and risks, integrating the qualitative and quantitative available information. Future climate projections for the timeframes 2021-2050 and 2041-2070 were provided by COSMO-CLM under the radiative forcing RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The run-off feeding the water stocks of the most important irrigation reservoirs in Apulia was then modeled with Arc-SWAT. Hence, the hazard analysis was carried out in order to estimate the degree of fulfillment of actual irrigation demand satisfied by water supply of different reservoirs in future scenarios. Vulnerability of exposed irrigated crops was evaluated depending on three factors accounting for crop yield variation vs water stress, water losses along the irrigation network, diversification of water supply. Resulting risk and vulnerability maps allowed: the identification of Reclamation Consortia at higher risk of not fulfilling their future irrigation demand (e.g. Capitanata Reclamation Consortia in RCP8.5 2041-2070 scenario); the ranking of most

  13. Development and assessment of GPS virtual reference stations for RTK positioning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, G. R.; Khoo, H. S.; Goh, P. C.; Law, C. L.

    2003-08-01

    The past few years have seen substantial growth in multiple-reference-station networks which are used to overcome the limitations of standard real-time kinematic (RTK) systems. The use of a multiple-reference-station network, as opposed to a single reference station, results in a larger service area coverage, increased robustness, and a higher positioning accuracy. However, real-time application is still a difficult task to implement in practice. The virtual reference station (VRS) concept is an efficient method of transmitting corrections through a data link to the network users for RTK positioning. A novel method of creating VRS for high-precision RTK positioning has been developed and tested at the Nanyang Technological University (NTU). The emphasis has been on real-time implementation. A number of tests were conducted using the Singapore Integrated Multiple Reference Station Network (SIMRSN). The tests were done at different locations in Singapore to assess the achievable accuracy and initialization times for VRS RTK positioning using the NTU method. The results confirmed that VRS RTK positioning can be achieved to within 3-cm accuracy in horizontal position. Height accuracy is in the range of 1 to 5 cm. The average initialization time is within 2 min.

  14. Assessment of Suitable Reference Genes for Quantitative Gene Expression Studies in Melon Fruits

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kong, Qiusheng; Gao, Lingyun; Cao, Lei; Liu, Yue; Saba, Hameed; Huang, Yuan; Bie, Zhilong

    2016-01-01

    Melon (Cucumis melo L.) is an attractive model plant for investigating fruit development because of its morphological, physiological, and biochemical diversity. Quantification of gene expression by quantitative reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR) with stably expressed reference genes for normalization can effectively elucidate the biological functions of genes that regulate fruit development. However, the reference genes for data normalization in melon fruits have not yet been systematically validated. This study aims to assess the suitability of 20 genes for their potential use as reference genes in melon fruits. Expression variations of these genes were measured in 24 samples that represented different developmental stages of fertilized and parthenocarpic melon fruits by qRT-PCR analysis. GeNorm identified ribosomal protein L (CmRPL) and cytosolic ribosomal protein S15 (CmRPS15) as the best pair of reference genes, and as many as five genes including CmRPL, CmRPS15, TIP41-like family protein (CmTIP41), cyclophilin ROC7 (CmCYP7), and ADP ribosylation factor 1 (CmADP) were required for more reliable normalization. NormFinder ranked CmRPS15 as the best single reference gene, and RAN GTPase gene family (CmRAN) and TATA-box binding protein (CmTBP2) as the best combination of reference genes in melon fruits. Their effectiveness was further validated by parallel analyses on the activities of soluble acid invertase and sucrose phosphate synthase, and expression profiles of their respective encoding genes CmAIN2 and CmSPS1, as well as sucrose contents during melon fruit ripening. The validated reference genes will help to improve the accuracy of gene expression studies in melon fruits. PMID:27536316

  15. Assessment of Suitable Reference Genes for Quantitative Gene Expression Studies in Melon Fruits.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kong, Qiusheng; Gao, Lingyun; Cao, Lei; Liu, Yue; Saba, Hameed; Huang, Yuan; Bie, Zhilong

    2016-01-01

    Melon (Cucumis melo L.) is an attractive model plant for investigating fruit development because of its morphological, physiological, and biochemical diversity. Quantification of gene expression by quantitative reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR) with stably expressed reference genes for normalization can effectively elucidate the biological functions of genes that regulate fruit development. However, the reference genes for data normalization in melon fruits have not yet been systematically validated. This study aims to assess the suitability of 20 genes for their potential use as reference genes in melon fruits. Expression variations of these genes were measured in 24 samples that represented different developmental stages of fertilized and parthenocarpic melon fruits by qRT-PCR analysis. GeNorm identified ribosomal protein L (CmRPL) and cytosolic ribosomal protein S15 (CmRPS15) as the best pair of reference genes, and as many as five genes including CmRPL, CmRPS15, TIP41-like family protein (CmTIP41), cyclophilin ROC7 (CmCYP7), and ADP ribosylation factor 1 (CmADP) were required for more reliable normalization. NormFinder ranked CmRPS15 as the best single reference gene, and RAN GTPase gene family (CmRAN) and TATA-box binding protein (CmTBP2) as the best combination of reference genes in melon fruits. Their effectiveness was further validated by parallel analyses on the activities of soluble acid invertase and sucrose phosphate synthase, and expression profiles of their respective encoding genes CmAIN2 and CmSPS1, as well as sucrose contents during melon fruit ripening. The validated reference genes will help to improve the accuracy of gene expression studies in melon fruits.

  16. Women referred for occupational risk assessment in pregnancy have no increased risk of adverse obstetric outcomes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bidstrup, Signe Brøker; Kaerlev, Linda; Thulstrup, Ane Marie;

    2015-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: Our aim was to study the association between pregnant women's referral status for occupational risk assessment, and their risk of preterm delivery (.... Logistic regression was used to calculate odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Calculations were adjusted for the mother's age at delivery, parity, ethnicity, socioeconomic status, smoking, and in supplementary analyses for year of birth. RESULTS: Referred women gave birth to children....../or that the occupational risk assessment and counselling of pregnant women are preventing these selected adverse pregnancy outcomes. FUNDING: The Research Unit at Department of Occupational and Environmental Medicine at Bispebjerg Hospital supported the study financially. TRIAL REGISTRATION: not relevant. The study...

  17. Women referred for occupational risk assessment in pregnancy have no increased risk of adverse obstetric outcomes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bidstrup, Signe Brøker; Kaerlev, Linda; Thulstrup, Ane Marie;

    2015-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: Our aim was to study the association between pregnant women's referral status for occupational risk assessment, and their risk of preterm delivery (.../or that the occupational risk assessment and counselling of pregnant women are preventing these selected adverse pregnancy outcomes. FUNDING: The Research Unit at Department of Occupational and Environmental Medicine at Bispebjerg Hospital supported the study financially. TRIAL REGISTRATION: not relevant. The study....... Logistic regression was used to calculate odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Calculations were adjusted for the mother's age at delivery, parity, ethnicity, socioeconomic status, smoking, and in supplementary analyses for year of birth. RESULTS: Referred women gave birth to children...

  18. A statistical assessment of differences and equivalences between genetically modified and reference plant varieties

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amzal Billy

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Safety assessment of genetically modified organisms is currently often performed by comparative evaluation. However, natural variation of plant characteristics between commercial varieties is usually not considered explicitly in the statistical computations underlying the assessment. Results Statistical methods are described for the assessment of the difference between a genetically modified (GM plant variety and a conventional non-GM counterpart, and for the assessment of the equivalence between the GM variety and a group of reference plant varieties which have a history of safe use. It is proposed to present the results of both difference and equivalence testing for all relevant plant characteristics simultaneously in one or a few graphs, as an aid for further interpretation in safety assessment. A procedure is suggested to derive equivalence limits from the observed results for the reference plant varieties using a specific implementation of the linear mixed model. Three different equivalence tests are defined to classify any result in one of four equivalence classes. The performance of the proposed methods is investigated by a simulation study, and the methods are illustrated on compositional data from a field study on maize grain. Conclusions A clear distinction of practical relevance is shown between difference and equivalence testing. The proposed tests are shown to have appropriate performance characteristics by simulation, and the proposed simultaneous graphical representation of results was found to be helpful for the interpretation of results from a practical field trial data set.

  19. Regional Issue Identification and Assessment program (RIIA). Environmental impacts and issues of the EIA MID-MID scenario: Federal Region II (New York and New Jersey)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brainard, J.; Munson, J.S.

    1979-05-01

    The impacts described for 1985 and 1990 are based on a national energy projection (scenario) which assumes medium energy demand and fuel supply through 1990 but does not incorporate the policies of the National Energy Act (NEA). This scenario, referred to as the Projection Series C or the TRENDLONG MID-MID scenario, is one of six possible energy futures developed by the DOE Energy Information Administration for the Department's 1977 Annual Report to Congress. It was chosen as representative of the official DOE national energy projections when this project was initiated, prior to the passage of the National Energy Act. The environmental impacts discussed in this volume are for Federal Region II, comprising New York and New Jersey.

  20. Including the temporal change in PM{sub 2.5} concentration in the assessment of human health impact: Illustration with renewable energy scenarios to 2050

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gschwind, Benoit, E-mail: benoit.gschwind@mines-paristech.fr [Centre Observation, Impacts, Energy, MINES ParisTech, 1 rue Claude Daunesse, CS 10207, F-06904 Sophia Antipolis (France); Lefevre, Mireille, E-mail: mireille.lefevre@mines-paristech.fr [Centre Observation, Impacts, Energy, MINES ParisTech, 1 rue Claude Daunesse, CS 10207, F-06904 Sophia Antipolis (France); Blanc, Isabelle, E-mail: isabelle.blanc@mines-paristech.fr [Centre Observation, Impacts, Energy, MINES ParisTech, 1 rue Claude Daunesse, CS 10207, F-06904 Sophia Antipolis (France); Ranchin, Thierry, E-mail: thierry.ranchin@mines-paristech.fr [Centre Observation, Impacts, Energy, MINES ParisTech, 1 rue Claude Daunesse, CS 10207, F-06904 Sophia Antipolis (France); Wyrwa, Artur, E-mail: awyrwa@agh.edu.pl [AGH University of Science and Technology, Al. Mickiewicza 30, Krakow 30-059 (Poland); Drebszok, Kamila [AGH University of Science and Technology, Al. Mickiewicza 30, Krakow 30-059 (Poland); Cofala, Janusz, E-mail: cofala@iiasa.ac.at [International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, 2067 Laxenburg (Austria); Fuss, Sabine, E-mail: fuss@mcc-berlin.net [International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, 2067 Laxenburg (Austria); Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change, Torgauer Str. 12-15, 10829 Berlin (Germany)

    2015-04-15

    This article proposes a new method to assess the health impact of populations exposed to fine particles (PM{sub 2.5}) during their whole lifetime, which is suitable for comparative analysis of energy scenarios. The method takes into account the variation of particle concentrations over time as well as the evolution of population cohorts. Its capabilities are demonstrated for two pathways of European energy system development up to 2050: the Baseline (BL) and the Low Carbon, Maximum Renewable Power (LC-MRP). These pathways were combined with three sets of assumptions about emission control measures: Current Legislation (CLE), Fixed Emission Factors (FEFs), and the Maximum Technically Feasible Reductions (MTFRs). Analysis was carried out for 45 European countries. Average PM{sub 2.5} concentration over Europe in the LC-MRP/CLE scenario is reduced by 58% compared with the BL/FEF case. Health impacts (expressed in days of loss of life expectancy) decrease by 21%. For the LC-MRP/MTFR scenario the average PM{sub 2.5} concentration is reduced by 85% and the health impact by 34%. The methodology was developed within the framework of the EU's FP7 EnerGEO project and was implemented in the Platform of Integrated Assessment (PIA). The Platform enables performing health impact assessments for various energy scenarios. - Highlights: • A new method to assess health impact of PM{sub 2.5} for energy scenarios is proposed. • An algorithm to compute Loss of Life Expectancy attributable to exposure to PM{sub 2.5} is depicted. • Its capabilities are demonstrated for two pathways of European energy system development up to 2050. • Integrating the temporal evolution of PM{sub 2.5} is of great interest for assessing the potential impacts of energy scenarios.

  1. Climate Change Effects on Heat- and Cold-Related Mortality in the Netherlands: A Scenario-Based Integrated Environmental Health Impact Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maud M. T. E. Huynen

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Although people will most likely adjust to warmer temperatures, it is still difficult to assess what this adaptation will look like. This scenario-based integrated health impacts assessment explores baseline (1981–2010 and future (2050 population attributable fractions (PAF of mortality due to heat (PAFheat and cold (PAFcold, by combining observed temperature–mortality relationships with the Dutch KNMI’14 climate scenarios and three adaptation scenarios. The 2050 model results without adaptation reveal a decrease in PAFcold (8.90% at baseline; 6.56%–7.85% in 2050 that outweighs the increase in PAFheat (1.15% at baseline; 1.66%–2.52% in 2050. When the 2050 model runs applying the different adaptation scenarios are considered as well, however, the PAFheat ranges between 0.94% and 2.52% and the PAFcold between 6.56% and 9.85%. Hence, PAFheat and PAFcold can decrease as well as increase in view of climate change (depending on the adaptation scenario. The associated annual mortality burdens in 2050—accounting for both the increasing temperatures and mortality trend—show that heat-related deaths will range between 1879 and 5061 (1511 at baseline and cold-related deaths between 13,149 and 19,753 (11,727 at baseline. Our results clearly illustrate that model outcomes are not only highly dependent on climate scenarios, but also on adaptation assumptions. Hence, a better understanding of (the impact of various plausible adaptation scenarios is required to advance future integrated health impact assessments.

  2. Climate Change Effects on Heat- and Cold-Related Mortality in the Netherlands: A Scenario-Based Integrated Environmental Health Impact Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huynen, Maud M. T. E.; Martens, Pim

    2015-01-01

    Although people will most likely adjust to warmer temperatures, it is still difficult to assess what this adaptation will look like. This scenario-based integrated health impacts assessment explores baseline (1981–2010) and future (2050) population attributable fractions (PAF) of mortality due to heat (PAFheat) and cold (PAFcold), by combining observed temperature–mortality relationships with the Dutch KNMI’14 climate scenarios and three adaptation scenarios. The 2050 model results without adaptation reveal a decrease in PAFcold (8.90% at baseline; 6.56%–7.85% in 2050) that outweighs the increase in PAFheat (1.15% at baseline; 1.66%–2.52% in 2050). When the 2050 model runs applying the different adaptation scenarios are considered as well, however, the PAFheat ranges between 0.94% and 2.52% and the PAFcold between 6.56% and 9.85%. Hence, PAFheat and PAFcold can decrease as well as increase in view of climate change (depending on the adaptation scenario). The associated annual mortality burdens in 2050—accounting for both the increasing temperatures and mortality trend—show that heat-related deaths will range between 1879 and 5061 (1511 at baseline) and cold-related deaths between 13,149 and 19,753 (11,727 at baseline). Our results clearly illustrate that model outcomes are not only highly dependent on climate scenarios, but also on adaptation assumptions. Hence, a better understanding of (the impact of various) plausible adaptation scenarios is required to advance future integrated health impact assessments. PMID:26512680

  3. Sensitivity analysis of parameters affecting carbon footprint of fossil fuel power plants based on life cycle assessment scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Dalir

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available In this study a pseudo comprehensive carbon footprint model for fossil fuel power plants is presented. Parameters which their effects are considered in this study include: plant type, fuel type, fuel transmission type, internal consumption of the plant, degradation, site ambient condition, transmission and distribution losses. Investigating internal consumption, degradation and site ambient condition effect on carbon footprint assessment of fossil fuel power plant is the specific feature of the proposed model. To evaluate the model, a sensitivity analysis is performed under different scenarios covering all possible choices for investigated parameters. The results show that carbon footprint of fossil fuel electrical energy that is produced, transmitted and distributed, varies from 321 g CO2 eq/kWh to 980 g CO2 equivalent /kWh. Carbon footprint of combined cycle with natural gas as main fuel is the minimum carbon footprint. Other factors can also cause indicative variation. Fuel type causes a variation of 28%. Ambient condition may change the result up to 13%. Transmission makes the carbon footprint larger by 4%. Internal consumption and degradation influence the result by 2 and 2.5%, respectively. Therefore, to minimize the carbon footprint of fossil fuel electricity, it is recommended to construct natural gas ignited combined cycles in low lands where the temperature is low and relative humidity is high. And the internal consumption is as least as possible and the maintenance and overhaul is as regular as possible.

  4. Climate and socio-economic scenarios for climate change research and assessment: reconciling the new with the old

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Vuuren, D.P.; Carter, T.R.

    2014-01-01

    A suggestion for mapping the SRES illustrative scenarios onto the new scenarios framework of representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) is presented. The mapping first compares storylines describing future socio-economic developments for SRES and SSPs. Nex

  5. A CLINICAL STUDY TO ASSESS THE POST-OPERATIVE OUTCOME IN TYMPANOPLASTY USING COMOT-15 IN INDIAN SCENARIO

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mahendra Kumar

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available : Functional and subjective evaluation of 96 patients with CSOM following Tympanoplasty was conducted to assess health-related quality of life (HR-QOL. Many instruments are tried by various authors in evaluating relevant dimensions of HR-QOL. A prospective study was conducted to know the patient satisfaction and it is correlated with the Graft healing and audiological measurement.COMOT-15 parameter described by Baumann I, Kurpiers B, Plinkert PK, Praetorius M et al. was used in Indian scenario. It showed good correlation between the subscale hearing function from the COMOT-15 questionnaire and audiological findings. AIM: To prospectively evaluate subjective improvement in Health related Quality of Life and Disease specific Quality of Life in patients undergoing surgery for CSOM. To evaluate the relation between audiometric and psychometric measurements in post Tympanoplasty patients. The study also aims to audit the results of surgery in a surgeon’s perspective of integration of the graft, prosthesis function and objective audiological improvement. MATERIALS AND METHODS: 110 patients who underwent surgery for CSOM at Government General Hospital, Kurnool, attached to Kurnool Medical College, Kurnool, Andhra Pradesh were assessed with Chronic Otitis Media Outcome Test (COMOT-15, Visual Analogue Scale, PTA, Closure of AB gap and otoscopic examination for evidence of graft healing and prosthesis function. The study was conducted between September 2011 and January 2014 and the patients were assessed at 6 months 12 months statistically analyzed to calculate the overall benefit to the patient. RESULTS: Use of multiple parameters like COMOT-15, Visual Analogue Scale, PTA and Closure of AB gap in assessing Tympanoplasty patients showed an easy and practicable method of evaluation with reliability. The test reliability coefficients was (all r>0.6. Content validity was determined by a study of the literature. These tests can distinguish CSOM patients

  6. Scenario? Guilty!

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kyng, Morten

    1992-01-01

    Robert Campbell categorizes the word "scenario" as a buzzword, identifies four major uses within HCI and suggests that we adopt new terms differentiating these four uses of the word. My first reaction to reading the article was definitely positive, but rereading it gave me enough second thoughts ...... to warrant a response. I should probably confess that I searched my latest paper for the word "scenario" and found eight occurrences, none of which fell in the categories described by Campbell....

  7. A Regression-Based Family of Measures for Full-Reference Image Quality Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oszust, Mariusz

    2016-12-01

    The advances in the development of imaging devices resulted in the need of an automatic quality evaluation of displayed visual content in a way that is consistent with human visual perception. In this paper, an approach to full-reference image quality assessment (IQA) is proposed, in which several IQA measures, representing different approaches to modelling human visual perception, are efficiently combined in order to produce objective quality evaluation of examined images, which is highly correlated with evaluation provided by human subjects. In the paper, an optimisation problem of selection of several IQA measures for creating a regression-based IQA hybrid measure, or a multimeasure, is defined and solved using a genetic algorithm. Experimental evaluation on four largest IQA benchmarks reveals that the multimeasures obtained using the proposed approach outperform state-of-the-art full-reference IQA techniques, including other recently developed fusion approaches.

  8. Assessment of air quality microsensors versus reference methods: The EuNetAir joint exercise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borrego, C.; Costa, A. M.; Ginja, J.; Amorim, M.; Coutinho, M.; Karatzas, K.; Sioumis, Th.; Katsifarakis, N.; Konstantinidis, K.; De Vito, S.; Esposito, E.; Smith, P.; André, N.; Gérard, P.; Francis, L. A.; Castell, N.; Schneider, P.; Viana, M.; Minguillón, M. C.; Reimringer, W.; Otjes, R. P.; von Sicard, O.; Pohle, R.; Elen, B.; Suriano, D.; Pfister, V.; Prato, M.; Dipinto, S.; Penza, M.

    2016-12-01

    The 1st EuNetAir Air Quality Joint Intercomparison Exercise organized in Aveiro (Portugal) from 13th-27th October 2014, focused on the evaluation and assessment of environmental gas, particulate matter (PM) and meteorological microsensors, versus standard air quality reference methods through an experimental urban air quality monitoring campaign. The IDAD-Institute of Environment and Development Air Quality Mobile Laboratory was placed at an urban traffic location in the city centre of Aveiro to conduct continuous measurements with standard equipment and reference analysers for CO, NOx, O3, SO2, PM10, PM2.5, temperature, humidity, wind speed and direction, solar radiation and precipitation. The comparison of the sensor data generated by different microsensor-systems installed side-by-side with reference analysers, contributes to the assessment of the performance and the accuracy of microsensor-systems in a real-world context, and supports their calibration and further development. The overall performance of the sensors in terms of their statistical metrics and measurement profile indicates significant differences in the results depending on the platform and on the sensors considered. In terms of pollutants, some promising results were observed for O3 (r2: 0.12-0.77), CO (r2: 0.53-0.87), and NO2 (r2: 0.02-0.89). For PM (r2: 0.07-0.36) and SO2 (r2: 0.09-0.20) the results show a poor performance with low correlation coefficients between the reference and microsensor measurements. These field observations under specific environmental conditions suggest that the relevant microsensor platforms, if supported by the proper post processing and data modelling tools, have enormous potential for new strategies in air quality control.

  9. Reference manual for toxicity and exposure assessment and risk characterization. CERCLA Baseline Risk Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1995-03-01

    The Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA, 1980) (CERCLA or Superfund) was enacted to provide a program for identifying and responding to releases of hazardous substances into the environment. The Superfund Amendments and Reauthorization Act (SARA, 1986) was enacted to strengthen CERCLA by requiring that site clean-ups be permanent, and that they use treatments that significantly reduce the volume, toxicity, or mobility of hazardous pollutants. The National Oil and Hazardous Substances Pollution Contingency Plan (NCP) (USEPA, 1985; USEPA, 1990) implements the CERCLA statute, presenting a process for (1) identifying and prioritizing sites requiring remediation and (2) assessing the extent of remedial action required at each site. The process includes performing two studies: a Remedial Investigation (RI) to evaluate the nature, extent, and expected consequences of site contamination, and a Feasibility Study (FS) to select an appropriate remedial alternative adequate to reduce such risks to acceptable levels. An integral part of the RI is the evaluation of human health risks posed by hazardous substance releases. This risk evaluation serves a number of purposes within the overall context of the RI/FS process, the most essential of which is to provide an understanding of ``baseline`` risks posed by a given site. Baseline risks are those risks that would exist if no remediation or institutional controls are applied at a site. This document was written to (1) guide risk assessors through the process of interpreting EPA BRA policy and (2) help risk assessors to discuss EPA policy with regulators, decision makers, and stakeholders as it relates to conditions at a particular DOE site.

  10. CARDIOVASCULAR RISK ASSESSMENT AND SUPPORT TECHNIQUES Whole blood viscosity assessment issues I: Extrapolation chart and reference values

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ezekiel Uba Nwose

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Background: There are many different methods for the assessment of whole blood viscosity, but not every pathology unit has equipment for any of the methods. However, a validated arithmetic method exists whereby whole blood viscosity can be extrapolated from haematocrit and total serum proteins. Aims: The objective of this work is to develop an algorithm in the form of a chart by which clinicians can easily extrapolate whole blood viscosity values in their consulting rooms or on the ward. Another objective is to suggest normal, subnormal and critical reference ranges applicable to this method. Materials and Methods: Whole blood viscosity at high shear stress was determined, from various possible pairs of haematocrit and total proteins. A chart was formulated so that whole blood viscosity can be extrapolated. After determination of two standard deviations from the mean and ascertainment of symmetric distribution, normal and abnormal reference ranges were defined. Results: The clinicians’ user-friendly chart is presented. Considering presumptive lower and upper limits, the continuum of ≤14.28, 14.29 – 15.00, 15.01 – 19.01, 19.02 – 19.39 and ≥19.40 (208 Sec-1 is obtained as reference ranges for critically low, subnormal low, normal, subnormal high and critically high whole blood viscosity levels respectively. Conclusion: This article advances a validated method to provide a user-friendly chart that would enable clinicians to assess whole blood viscosity for any patients who has results for full blood count and total proteins. It would make the assessment of whole blood viscosity costless and the neglect of a known cardiovascular risk factor less excusable.

  11. Assessing models of speciation under different biogeographic scenarios; An empirical study using multi-locus and RNA-seq analyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Taylor; Tollis, Marc; Hsieh, PingHsun; Gutenkunst, Ryan N.; Liu, Zhen; Kusumi, Kenro; Culver, Melanie; Murphy, Robert W.

    2016-01-01

    Evolutionary biology often seeks to decipher the drivers of speciation, and much debate persists over the relative importance of isolation and gene flow in the formation of new species. Genetic studies of closely related species can assess if gene flow was present during speciation, because signatures of past introgression often persist in the genome. We test hypotheses on which mechanisms of speciation drove diversity among three distinct lineages of desert tortoise in the genus Gopherus. These lineages offer a powerful system to study speciation, because different biogeographic patterns (physical vs. ecological segregation) are observed at opposing ends of their distributions. We use 82 samples collected from 38 sites, representing the entire species' distribution and generate sequence data for mtDNA and four nuclear loci. A multilocus phylogenetic analysis in *BEAST estimates the species tree. RNA-seq data yield 20,126 synonymous variants from 7665 contigs from two individuals of each of the three lineages. Analyses of these data using the demographic inference package ∂a∂i serve to test the null hypothesis of no gene flow during divergence. The best-fit demographic model for the three taxa is concordant with the *BEAST species tree, and the ∂a∂i analysis does not indicate gene flow among any of the three lineages during their divergence. These analyses suggest that divergence among the lineages occurred in the absence of gene flow and in this scenario the genetic signature of ecological isolation (parapatric model) cannot be differentiated from geographic isolation (allopatric model).

  12. Perceptual full-reference quality assessment of stereoscopic images by considering binocular visual characteristics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shao, Feng; Lin, Weisi; Gu, Shanbo; Jiang, Gangyi; Srikanthan, Thambipillai

    2013-05-01

    Perceptual quality assessment is a challenging issue in 3D signal processing research. It is important to study 3D signal directly instead of studying simple extension of the 2D metrics directly to the 3D case as in some previous studies. In this paper, we propose a new perceptual full-reference quality assessment metric of stereoscopic images by considering the binocular visual characteristics. The major technical contribution of this paper is that the binocular perception and combination properties are considered in quality assessment. To be more specific, we first perform left-right consistency checks and compare matching error between the corresponding pixels in binocular disparity calculation, and classify the stereoscopic images into non-corresponding, binocular fusion, and binocular suppression regions. Also, local phase and local amplitude maps are extracted from the original and distorted stereoscopic images as features in quality assessment. Then, each region is evaluated independently by considering its binocular perception property, and all evaluation results are integrated into an overall score. Besides, a binocular just noticeable difference model is used to reflect the visual sensitivity for the binocular fusion and suppression regions. Experimental results show that compared with the relevant existing metrics, the proposed metric can achieve higher consistency with subjective assessment of stereoscopic images.

  13. Preliminary assessment of the health and environmental effects of coal utilization in the midwest. Volume I. Energy scenarios, technology characterizations, air and water resource impacts, and health effects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    1977-01-01

    An initial evaluation of the major health and environmental issues associated with increased coal use in the six midwestern states of Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, and Wisconsin is presented. Using an integrated assessment approach, the evaluation proceeds from a base-line scenario of energy demand and facility siting for the period 1975 to 2020. Emphasis is placed on impacts from coal extraction, land reclamation, coal combustion for electrical generation, and coal gasification. The range of potential impacts and constraints is illustrated by a second scenario that represents an expected upper limit for coal utilization in Illinois. Included are: (1) a characterization of the energy demand and siting scenarios, coal related technologies, and coal resources, and (2) the related impacts on air quality, water availability, water quality, and human health.

  14. Land use scenarios development and impacts assessment on vegetation carbon/nitrogen sequestration in the West African Sudan savanna watershed, Benin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chabi, A.

    2015-12-01

    ackground: Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD+), being developed through the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) requires information on the carbon/nitrogen stocks in the plant biomass for predicting future climate under scenarios development. The development of land use scenarios in West Africa is needed to predict future impacts of change in the environment and the socio-economic status of rural communities. The study aims at developing land use scenario based on mitigation strategy to climate change as an issue of contributing for carbon and nitrogen sequestration, the condition 'food focused' as a scenario based crop production and 'financial investment' as scenario based on an economic development pathway, and to explore the possible future temporal and spatial impacts on vegetation carbon/nitrogen sequestration/emission and socio-economic status of rural communities. Preliminary results: BEN-LUDAS (Benin-Land Use DyNamic Simulator) model, carbon and nitrogen equations, remote sensing and socio-economic data were used to predict the future impacts of each scenario in the environment and human systems. The preliminary results which are under analysis will be presented soon. Conclusion: The proposed BEN-LUDAS models will help to contribute to policy decision making at the local and regional scale and to predict future impacts of change in the environment and socio-economic status of the rural communities. Keywords: Land use scenarios development, BEN-LUDAS, socio-economic status of rural communities, future impacts of change, assessment, West African Sudan savanna watershed, Benin

  15. Subjective Memory Ability and Long-Term Forgetting in Patients Referred for Neuropsychological Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Werf, Sieberen P; Geurts, Sofie; de Werd, Maartje M E

    2016-01-01

    It has been suggested that the memory complaints of patients who are not impaired on formal memory tests may reflect accelerated forgetting. We examined this hypothesis by comparing the 1-week delayed recall and recognition test performance of outpatients who were referred for neuropsychological assessment and who had normal memory performance during standard memory assessment with that of a non-patient control group. Both groups performed equally in verbal learning and delayed recall. However, after 1 week, the patients performed worse than controls on both recall and recognition tests. Although subjective memory ability predicted short-term memory function in patients, it did not predict long-term delayed forgetting rates in either the patients or controls. Thus, long-term delayed recall and recognition intervals provided no additional value to explain poor subjective memory ability in the absence of objective memory deficits.

  16. PAHs in baby food: assessment of three different processing techniques for the preparation of reference materials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huertas-Pérez, José Fernando; Bordajandi, Luisa R; Sejerøe-Olsen, Berit; Emteborg, Håkan; Baù, Andrea; Schimmel, Heinz; Dabrio, Marta

    2015-04-01

    A feasibility study for producing a matrix reference material for selected polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in baby food is reported. A commercially available baby food, containing carrots, potatoes, tomato, white beans and meat, was spiked with the so-called 15 + 1 PAHs included in the PAHs priority list for food of the EU, at a mass fraction level of 1 μg/kg. The contaminated baby food was further processed by autoclaving, freezing or freeze drying. The homogeneity of the three materials (bottle-to-bottle variation) and their short-term (4 weeks) and long-term (18 months) stability at different temperatures were assessed. To this end, an analytical method based on a solid-liquid extraction followed by cleaning up with gel permeation chromatography (GPC) and solid phase extraction (SPE) and GC-IDMS determination, was validated in-house. It could be demonstrated that the procedure fulfilled the demands for application to the homogeneity and isochronous stability studies for the candidate reference materials targeted here. All three materials proved to be sufficiently homogeneous for the intended use. Measurements on the autoclaved material provided the most promising results in terms of envisaged shelf life, although freeze drying was also found to be a suitable processing technique for most of the investigated PAHs. These results are an important step towards the development of a matrix reference material for PAHs in a processed food matrix in a presentation very similar to routine samples.

  17. Patient and referring health care provider satisfaction with a physiotherapy spinal triage assessment service

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bath B

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Brenna Bath1, Bonnie Janzen21School of Physical Therapy, College of Medicine, University of Saskatchewan, 2Community Health and Epidemiology, College of Medicine, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, CanadaPurpose: To evaluate participant and referring care provider satisfaction associated with a spinal triage assessment service delivered by physiotherapists in collaboration with orthopedic surgeons.Methods: People with low back-related complaints were recruited from those referred to a spinal triage assessment program delivered by physiotherapists. Measures of patient and provider satisfaction were completed at approximately 4 weeks after the assessment. The satisfaction surveys were analyzed quantitatively with descriptive statistics and qualitatively with an inductive thematic approach of open and axial coding.Results: A total of 108/115 participants completed the posttest satisfaction survey. Sixty-six percent of participants were “very satisfied” with the service and 55% were “very satisfied” with the recommendations that were made. Only 18% of referring care providers completed the satisfaction survey and 90.5% of those were “very satisfied” with the recommendations. Sixty-one participants and 14 care providers provided comments which revealed a diverse range of themes which were coded into positive (ie, understanding the problem, communication, customer service, efficiency, and management direction, negative (ie, lack of detail, time to follow-up, cost and neutral related to the triage service, and an “other” category unrelated to the service (ie, chronic symptoms, comorbidities, and limited access to health care.Conclusion: The quantitative results of the participant survey demonstrated very high levels of satisfaction with the service and slightly less satisfaction with the recommendations that were made. Satisfaction of referring care providers with the recommendations and report was also high, but given

  18. Assessment of locomotion behavior in adult Zebrafish after acute exposure to different pharmacological reference compounds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pankaj Gupta

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Objectives: The objective of the present study was to assess locomotor behavior of adult zebrafish after acute exposure to different pharmacological reference compounds. Materials and Methods: Adult zebrafish of 4-5-months-old were exposed to different concentrations of known reference compounds for 15 min. The test was conducted separately for each drug concentration as well as control. Locomotor activity parameters viz. distance travelled, speed, total mobile time, and total immobile time were recorded for each animal during the exposure period. Results: Out of 11 compounds tested, nine compounds showed decrease in locomotor behavior with significant changes in distance travelled, speed, total mobile time, and total immobile time. Caffeine exhibited biphasic response in locomotion behavior, while scopolamine failed to induce any significant changes. Conclusion: In view of the above findings, these results suggested that exposure of adult zebrafish with different known compounds produce the expected changes in the locomotion behavior; therefore, adult zebrafish can be used an alternative approach for the assessment of new chemical entities for their effect on locomotor behavior.

  19. Integrated climate/land use/hydrological change scenarios for assessing threats to ecosystem services on California rangelands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byrd, K. B.; Flint, L. E.; Casey, C. F.; Alvarez, P.; Sleeter, B. M.; Sohl, T.

    2013-12-01

    In California there are over 18 million acres of rangelands in the Central Valley and the interior Coast Range, most of which are privately owned and managed for livestock production. Ranches provide extensive wildlife habitat and generate multiple ecosystem services that carry considerable market and non-market values. These rangelands are under pressure from urbanization and conversion to intensive agriculture, as well as from climate change that can alter the flow of these services. To understand the coupled and isolated impacts of land use and climate change on rangeland ecosystem services, we developed six spatially explicit (250 m) coupled climate/land use/hydrological change scenarios for the Central Valley and oak woodland regions of California consistent with three IPCC emission scenarios - A2, A1B and B1. Three land use land cover (LULC) change scenarios were each integrated with two downscaled global climate models (GCMs) (a warm, wet future and a hot, dry future) and related hydrologic data. We used these scenarios to quantify wildlife habitat, water supply (recharge potential and streamflow) and carbon sequestration on rangelands and to conduct an economic analysis associated with changes in these benefits. The USGS FOREcasting SCEnarios of land-use change model (FORE-SCE), which runs dynamically with downscaled GCM outputs, was used to generate maps of yearly LULC change for each scenario from 2006 to 2100. We used the USGS Basin Characterization Model (BCM), a regional water balance model, to generate change in runoff, recharge, and stream discharge based on land use change and climate change. Metrics derived from model outputs were generated at the landscape scale and for six case-study watersheds. At the landscape scale, over a quarter of the million acres set aside for conservation in the B1 scenario would otherwise be converted to agriculture in the A2 scenario, where temperatures increase by up to 4.5 °C compared to 1.3 °C in the B1 scenario

  20. A biological tool to assess flow connectivity in reference temporary streams from the Mediterranean Basin

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cid, N., E-mail: ncid@ub.edu [Grup de Recerca “Freshwater Ecology and Management (FEM)”, Departament d' Ecologia, Universitat de Barcelona, Catalonia (Spain); Verkaik, I. [Grup de Recerca “Freshwater Ecology and Management (FEM)”, Departament d' Ecologia, Universitat de Barcelona, Catalonia (Spain); García-Roger, E.M. [Grup de Recerca “Freshwater Ecology and Management (FEM)”, Departament d' Ecologia, Universitat de Barcelona, Catalonia (Spain); Institut Cavanilles de Biodiversitat i Biologia Evolutiva, Universitat de València (Spain); Rieradevall, M.; Bonada, N. [Grup de Recerca “Freshwater Ecology and Management (FEM)”, Departament d' Ecologia, Universitat de Barcelona, Catalonia (Spain); Sánchez-Montoya, M.M. [Department of Ecology and Hydrology, Regional Campus of International Excellence “Campus Mare Nostrum”—University of Murcia (Spain); Leibniz-Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries (IGB), Berlin (Germany); Gómez, R.; Suárez, M.L.; Vidal-Abarca, M.R. [Department of Ecology and Hydrology, Regional Campus of International Excellence “Campus Mare Nostrum”—University of Murcia (Spain); Demartini, D.; Buffagni, A.; Erba, S. [Instituto di Ricerca Sulle Acque (CNR-IRSA) (Italy); Karaouzas, I.; Skoulikidis, N. [Hellenic Center for Marine Research (HCMR) (Greece); Prat, N. [Grup de Recerca “Freshwater Ecology and Management (FEM)”, Departament d' Ecologia, Universitat de Barcelona, Catalonia (Spain)

    2016-01-01

    Many streams in the Mediterranean Basin have temporary flow regimes. While timing for seasonal drought is predictable, they undergo strong inter-annual variability in flow intensity. This high hydrological variability and associated ecological responses challenge the ecological status assessment of temporary streams, particularly when setting reference conditions. This study examined the effects of flow connectivity in aquatic macroinvertebrates from seven reference temporary streams across the Mediterranean Basin where hydrological variability and flow conditions are well studied. We tested for the effect of flow cessation on two streamflow indices and on community composition, and, by performing random forest and classification tree analyses we identified important biological predictors for classifying the aquatic state either as flowing or disconnected pools. Flow cessation was critical for one of the streamflow indices studied and for community composition. Macroinvertebrate families found to be important for classifying the aquatic state were Hydrophilidae, Simuliidae, Hydropsychidae, Planorbiidae, Heptageniidae and Gerridae. For biological traits, trait categories associated to feeding habits, food, locomotion and substrate relation were the most important and provided more accurate predictions compared to taxonomy. A combination of selected metrics and associated thresholds based on the most important biological predictors (i.e. Bio-AS Tool) were proposed in order to assess the aquatic state in reference temporary streams, especially in the absence of hydrological data. Although further development is needed, the tool can be of particular interest for monitoring, restoration, and conservation purposes, representing an important step towards an adequate management of temporary rivers not only in the Mediterranean Basin but also in other regions vulnerable to the effects of climate change. - Highlights: • The effect of flow connectivity on macroinvertebrate

  1. Scenario analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Li, L.; Braat, L.C.; Lei, G.; Arets, E.J.M.M.; Liu, J.; Jiang, L.; Fan, Z.; Liu, W.; He, H.; Sun, X.

    2014-01-01

    This chapter presents the results of the scenario analysis of China’s ecosystems focusing on forest, grassland, and wetland ecosystems. The analysis was undertaken using Conversion of Land Use Change and its Effects (CLUE) modeling and an ecosystem service matrix (as explained below) complemented by

  2. Biomass Scenario Model Scenario Library: Definitions, Construction, and Description

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Inman, D.; Vimmerstedt, L.; Bush, B.; Peterson, S.

    2014-04-01

    Understanding the development of the biofuels industry in the United States is important to policymakers and industry. The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a system dynamics model of the biomass-to-biofuels system that can be used to explore policy effects on biofuels development. Because of the complexity of the model, as well as the wide range of possible future conditions that affect biofuels industry development, we have not developed a single reference case but instead developed a set of specific scenarios that provide various contexts for our analyses. The purpose of this report is to describe the scenarios that comprise the BSM scenario library. At present, we have the following policy-focused scenarios in our library: minimal policies, ethanol-focused policies, equal access to policies, output-focused policies, technological diversity focused, and the point-of-production- focused. This report describes each scenario, its policy settings, and general insights gained through use of the scenarios in analytic studies.

  3. Energy technology scenarios for use in water resources assessments under Section 13a of the Federal Nonnuclear Energy Research and Development Act

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    1980-10-01

    This document presents two estimates of future growth of emerging energy technology in the years 1985, 1990, and 2000 to be used as a basis for conducting Water Resources Council assessments as required by the Nonnuclear Energy Research and Development Act of 1974. The two scenarios are called the high world oil price (HWOP) and low world oil price (LWOP) cases. A national-level summary of the ASA tabulations is shown in Appendix A; the scenarios are presented at the ASA level of detail in Appendix B. The two scenarios were generally derived from assumptions of the Second National Energy Plant (NEP II), including estimates of high and low world oil price cases, growth rate of GNP, and related economic parameters. The overall national energy growth inherent in these assumptions was expressed as a detailed projection of various energy fuel cycles through use of the Fossil-2 model and regionalized through use of the Strategic Environmental Assessment System (SEAS). These scenarios are for the use of regional analysts in examining the availability of water for and the potential impacts of future growth of emerging energy technology in selected river basins of the Nation, as required by Section 13(a).

  4. Using Scenarios to Assess Policy Mixes for Resource Efficiency and Eco-Innovation in Different Fiscal Policy Frameworks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laurent Bontoux

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available There is no longer any doubt that the European Union needs to manage a transition towards a sustainable economy and society. The complexity of such an enterprise is creating major challenges that require a future oriented systemic approach, looking at the EU economy and society as a whole, and going beyond current agendas and policies. The purpose of the JRC foresight study “2035: Paths towards a sustainable EU economy” was to explore how this could be possible. Resource efficiency was at the core of the reflection. This created a context where the fiscal framework was perceived by the experts involved as essential in driving (or hindering the evolution towards a more sustainable future. Societal values (individualistic or collaborative were selected as the other axis around which to construct four scenarios. A large number of other drivers of change were taken into account to construct scenarios of a sufficient depth and detail to generate a systemic understanding. The scenarios were used in an original way to help experts identify which policy mixes would be best adapted to push each scenario towards a more sustainable future, while respecting its own logic and constraints. For each scenario, 6 policy domains considered the most relevant were selected among more than 50. Research and innovation, new business models and education were considered important for all four scenarios. The other domains were natural resources management, regulation, ethics, employment, transparency, governance, social protection, and systems integration. The study illustrates how powerful a policy framework which is fiscally supportive of environmental sustainability can be in supporting resource efficiency and that this can be achieved in very different ways depending on the prevailing social values. It also shows how a combination of actions in other policy areas can be used to drive sustainability further. In sum, this work illustrates how the creative use of

  5. It's the Heat AND the Humidity -- Assessment of Extreme Heat Scenarios to Enable the Assessment of Climate Impacts on Public Health

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crosson, William L; Al-Hamdan, Mohammad Z.; Economou, Sigrid, A.; Estes, Maurice G.; Estes, Sue M.; Puckett, Mark; Quattrochi, Dale A

    2013-01-01

    In the United States, extreme heat is the most deadly weather-related hazard. In the face of a warming climate and urbanization, which contributes to local-scale urban heat islands, it is very likely that extreme heat events (EHEs) will become more common and more severe in the U.S. In a NASA-funded project supporting the National Climate Assessment, we are providing historical and future measures of extreme heat to enable assessments of the impacts of heat on public health over the coterminous U.S. We use atmospheric temperature and humidity information from meteorological reanalysis and from Global Climate Models (GCMs) to provide data on past and future heat events. The project s emphasis is on providing assessments of the magnitude, frequency and geographic distribution of extreme heat in the U.S. to facilitate public health studies. In our approach, long-term climate change is captured with GCM output, and the temporal and spatial characteristics of short-term extremes are represented by the reanalysis data. Two future time horizons, 2040 and 2090, are the focus of future assessments; these are compared to the recent past period of 1981-2000. We are characterizing regional-scale temperature and humidity conditions using GCM output for two climate change scenarios (A2 and A1B) defined in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). For each future period, 20 years of multi-model GCM output have been analyzed to develop a heat stress climatology based on statistics of extreme heat indicators. Differences between the two future and past periods have been used to define temperature and humidity changes on a monthly time scale and regional spatial scale. These changes, combined with hourly historical meteorological data at a spatial scale (12 km) much finer than that of GCMs, enable us to create future climate realizations, from which we compute the daily heat stress measures and related spatially-specific climatological fields. These include the mean annual

  6. Generic Screening Models for Assessing Exposures to the Public and ICRP Reference Animals and Plants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yankovich, Tamara L.; Proehl, Gerhard; Telleria, Diego [International Atomic Energy Agency, P.O. Box 100, 1400 Vienna (Austria); Berkovskyy, Volodymyr [Ukrainian Radiation Protection Institute (RPI), 53, Melnikova Street, 04050, Kiev (Ukraine)

    2014-07-01

    With the update of the IAEA Fundamental Safety Principles (SF-1) stating the objective to protect people and the environment from harmful effects of ionizing radiation, it has been necessary to update International Basic Safety Standards (BSS) on Radiation Protection and Safety of Radiation Sources and the underlying safety guides and technical documents to provide guidance on how this could be achieved in practice. The current paper provides an update on the status and plans to revise the IAEA Safety Report 'Generic Models for Use in Assessing the Impact of Discharges of Radioactive Substances to the Environment' (SRS 19) that was published in 2001. The models of SRS 19 (2001), which was focused on assessment of exposures to the public, is being expanded into three volumes that provide methodologies for screening assessments for the public, as well as for flora and fauna. The revised SRS 19 guide will ultimately facilitate the application of screening models for different levels of assessment using updated parameter values from database that have been developed as part of the IAEA's EMRAS (Environmental Modelling for Radiation Safety) and EMRAS II international model validation programmes. The scope of the revised SRS 19 covers prospective screening assessment of doses to the representative person and Reference Animals and Plants (RAPs), and will provide simple and robust assessment methods for radiological assessment related to planning and design, applying a graded approach. Tabulated screening coefficients and environmental dilution factors will be included for 825 radionuclides. The screening coefficients are developed assuming equilibrium conditions; they can be used to assess radiological impacts arising from routine discharges of radionuclides to terrestrial and aquatic receptors for planned exposure situations. Volumes 1 and 2 of the revised SRS 19 are at an advanced stage of completion and are focused on 'Screening Assessment of Public

  7. Psychopathology of the General Population Referred by Primary Care Physicians for Urgent Assessment in Psychiatric Hospitals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Judith McLenan

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Objective: The aim of this study was to evaluate the type, severity and progression of psychiatric pathologies in a sample of 372 outpatients (age range 18–65 years referred by their primary general practitioners (GPs to an Urgent Referral Team (URT based in a psychiatric hospital in Aberdeen, Scotland. This team offers immediate appointments (1- to 7-day delays for rapid assessments and early interventions to the outpatients referred by their primary family doctors.Method: One-sample t-test and z statistic were used for data analysis. From the total population, a convenience sample of 40 people was selected and assessed to evaluate whether follow-up appointments after the first visit could reduce the severity of suicidal ideation, depression and anxiety in the outpatients seen by the URT. A two-sample t-test and a Wilcoxon signed-rank test were used to assess the variations in the scores during the follow-up visits.Results: We found a statistically significant prevalence of depressive disorders, comorbid with anxiety at first presentation in people who were females, white, never married, living with a partner, not studying and not in paid employment. The common presentation of borderline personality disorder and dysthymia in this population underscores its vulnerability to major socioeconomic challenges.Conclusion: The data confirmed the impact that primary care cooperation with psychiatric hospitals can have on the psychiatric system, and as a reflection, on the population’s mental health and well-being. In fact, active cooperation and early diagnosis and intervention will help detect cases at risk in the general population and reduce admissions into hospitals.

  8. Learning from global emissions scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Neill, Brian C.; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa

    2008-10-01

    Scenarios of global greenhouse gas emissions have played a key role in climate change analysis for over twenty years. Currently, several research communities are organizing to undertake a new round of scenario development in the lead-up to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). To help inform this process, we assess a number of past efforts to develop and learn from sets of global greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. We conclude that while emissions scenario exercises have likely had substantial benefits for participating modeling teams and produced insights from individual models, learning from the exercises taken as a whole has been more limited. Model comparison exercises have typically focused on the production of large numbers of scenarios while investing little in assessing the results or the production process, perhaps on the assumption that later assessment efforts could play this role. However, much of this assessment potential remains untapped. Efforts such as scenario-related chapters of IPCC reports have been most informative when they have gone to extra lengths to carry out more specific comparison exercises, but in general these assessments do not have the remit or resources to carry out the kind of detailed analysis of scenario results necessary for drawing the most useful conclusions. We recommend that scenario comparison exercises build-in time and resources for assessing scenario results in more detail at the time when they are produced, that these exercises focus on more specific questions to improve the prospects for learning, and that additional scenario assessments are carried out separately from production exercises. We also discuss the obstacles to better assessment that might exist, and how they might be overcome. Finally, we recommend that future work include much greater emphasis on understanding how scenarios are actually used, as a guide to improving scenario production.

  9. 情景分析法在贵州省旅游发展规划环评中的应用研究%Application of Scenario Analysis in Environment Impact Assessment of GuiZhou Tourism Development Planning

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    杨桃萍; 常理; 毛思禹

    2015-01-01

    The application of scenario analysis method in planning impact assessment was introduced as well as its theory and characteristics.Four scenarios were set up for Guizhou province tourism development planning.They are planning exploitation,business as usual,high speed growth,and low speed growth.On the basis of comparing the results of different scenarios,scenario 1 seemed to be the best option,which has implied that planning demonstra-ted more obvious positive impacts on society and economy than the negative influences on environment and intangi-ble culture heritage.The environmental influence here referred to surface water quality and solid waste disposal.%介绍了情景分析法的理论体系、特性表述、在规划环评中的应用。贵州省旅游发展规划模拟了4种情景,分别是规划开发、正常发展、高速增长、低速增长。综合比较4种选择方案,情景1为最佳选择。评价结果显示:规划在社会经济方面的正面影响大于对环境和无形文化遗产的负面影响,这里的环境影响主要指地表水水质和固体废物的处置。

  10. Local-scale climate scenarios for impact studies and risk assessments: integration of early 21st century ENSEMBLES projections into the ELPIS database

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calanca, Pierluigi; Semenov, Mikhail A.

    2013-08-01

    We present the integration of early 21st century climate projections for Europe based on simulations carried out within the EU-FP6 ENSEMBLES project with the LARS-WG stochastic weather generator. The aim was to upgrade ELPIS, a repository of local-scale climate scenarios for use in impact studies and risk assessments that already included global projections from the CMIP3 ensemble and regional scenarios for Japan. To obtain a more reliable simulation of daily rainfall and extremes, changes in wet and dry series derived from daily ENSEMBLES outputs were taken into account. Kernel average smoothers were used to reduce noise arising from sampling artefacts. Examples of risk analyses based on 25-km climate projections from the ENSEMBLES ensemble of regional climate models illustrate the possibilities offered by the updated version of ELPIS. The results stress the importance of tailored information for local-scale impact assessments at the European level.

  11. Eco-efficient production of spring barley in a changed climate: A Life Cycle Assessment including primary data from future climate scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Niero, Monia; Ingvordsen, Cathrine Heinz; Peltonen-Sainio, Pirjo;

    2015-01-01

    leaching and change in crop yield). The main input data originate from experiments, where spring barley cultivars were cultivated in a climate phytotron under controlled and manipulated treatments. Effects of changed climate on both crop productivity and crop quality were represented, as well as impacts......The paper has two main objectives: (i) to assess the eco-efficiency of spring barley cultivation for malting in Denmark in a future changed climate (700 ppm [CO2] and +5 °C) through Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) and (ii) to compare alternative future cultivation scenarios, both excluding...... and including earlier sowing and cultivar selection as measures of adaptation to a changed climate. A baseline scenario describing the current spring barley cultivation in Denmark was defined, and the expected main deviations were identified (differences in pesticide treatment index, modifications in nitrate...

  12. Life cycle assessment of forecasting scenarios for urban water management: A first implementation of the WaLA model on Paris suburban area.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loubet, Philippe; Roux, Philippe; Guérin-Schneider, Laetitia; Bellon-Maurel, Véronique

    2016-03-01

    A framework and an associated modeling tool to perform life cycle assessment (LCA) of urban water system, namely the WaLA model, has been recently developed. In this paper, the WaLA model is applied to a real case study: the urban water system of the Paris suburban area, in France. It aims to verify the capacity of the model to provide environmental insights to stakeholder's issues related to future trends influencing the system (e.g., evolution of water demand, increasing water scarcity) or policy responses (e.g., choices of water resources and technologies). This is achieved by evaluating a baseline scenario for 2012 and several forecasting scenarios for 2022 and 2050. The scenarios are designed through the modeling tool WaLA, which is implemented in Simulink/Matlab: it combines components representing the different technologies, users and resources of the UWS. The life cycle inventories of the technologies and users components include water quantity and quality changes, specific operation (electricity, chemicals) and infrastructures data (construction materials). The methods selected for the LCIA are midpoint ILCD, midpoint water deprivation impacts at the sub-river basin scale, and endpoint Impact 2002+. The results of the baseline scenario show that wastewater treatment plants have the highest impacts compared to drinking water production and distribution, as traditionally encountered in LCA of UWS. The results of the forecasting scenarios show important changes in water deprivation impacts due to water management choices or effects of climate change. They also enable to identify tradeoffs with other impact categories and to compare several scenarios. It suggests the capacity of the model to deliver information for decision making about future policies.

  13. Hazard Assessment for POPOCATÉPETL Volcano Using Hasset: a Probability Event Tree Tool to Evaluate Future Eruptive Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferrés, D.; Reyes Pimentel, T. A.; Espinasa-Pereña, R.; Nieto, A.; Sobradelo, R.; Flores, X.; González Huesca, A. E.; Ramirez, A.

    2013-05-01

    -eruptive crisis of April-May 2012, in order to identify the most probable processes in which this unrest could have developed and to contribute to the diagnosis task. In this research, we propose a comparison between the processes identified in this preliminary volcanic event tree and another elaborated using a Hazard Assessment Event Tree probability tool (HASSET), built on a bayesian event tree structure, using mainly the information of the known eruptive history of Popocatépetl. The HASSET method is based on Bayesian Inference and is used to assess volcanic hazard of future eruptive scenarios, by evaluating the most relevant sources of uncertainty that play a role in estimating the future probability of occurrence of a specific volcanic event. The final goal is to find the most useful tools to make the diagnosis and prognosis of the Popocatépetl volcanic activity, integrating the known eruptive history of the volcano, the experience of the scientific committee and the information provided by the monitoring systems, in an interactive and user-friendly way.

  14. A decision support tool for assessing scenario acceptability using a hierarchy of indicators with compensabilities and importance weights

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Voet, van der H.; Heijden, van der G.W.A.M.; Kruisselbrink, J.W.; Tromp, S.O.; Rijgersberg, H.; Bussel, van L.G.J.; Asselt, van E.D.; Fles-Klerx, van der H.J.

    2014-01-01

    Choosing between different scenarios commonly requires decision making based on multiple criteria. For example finding the most sustainable agricultural production system requires evaluation of many indicators in fields as diverse as environment, animal welfare and economics. A new and transparent m

  15. Exposure scenarios for workers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marquart, Hans; Northage, Christine; Money, Chris

    2007-12-01

    The new European chemicals legislation REACH (Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation and restriction of Chemicals) requires the development of Exposure Scenarios describing the conditions and risk management measures needed for the safe use of chemicals. Such Exposure Scenarios should integrate considerations of both human health and the environment. Specific aspects are relevant for worker exposure. Gathering information on the uses of the chemical is an important step in developing an Exposure Scenario. In-house information at manufacturers is an important source. Downstream users can contribute information through direct contact or through their associations. Relatively simple approaches (Tier 1 tools, such as the ECETOC Targeted Risk Assessment and the model EASE) can be used to develop broad Exposure Scenarios that cover many use situations. These approaches rely on the categorisation of just a few determinants, including only a small number of risk management measures. Such approaches have a limited discriminatory power and are rather conservative. When the hazard of the substance or the complexity of the exposure situation require a more in-depth approach, further development of the Exposure Scenarios with Tier 2 approaches is needed. Measured data sets of worker exposure are very valuable in a Tier 2 approach. Some downstream user associations have attempted to build Exposure Scenarios based on measured data sets. Generic Tier 2 tools for developing Exposure Scenarios do not exist yet. To enable efficient development of the worker exposure part of Exposure Scenarios a further development of Tier 1 and Tier 2 tools is needed. Special attention should be given to user friendliness and to the validity (boundaries) of the approaches. The development of standard worker exposure descriptions or full Exposure Scenarios by downstream user branches in cooperation with manufacturers and importers is recommended.

  16. EDITORIAL: Where next with global environmental scenarios? Where next with global environmental scenarios?

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Neill, Brian; Pulver, Simone; Van Deveer, Stacy; Garb, Yaakov

    2008-12-01

    -oriented scenario exercises also generate scenario products, but such products are recognized as meaningful mostly (or only) in the social context in which they were developed. It should be noted that those seeking to understand the functions, implications and utility of scenarios can approach analysis of scenarios and their impacts from either perspective—focusing attention on product outcomes and influence or assessing procedural and contextual dynamics and implications. Papers in this issue examine various aspects of scenario products, scenario processes and their interactions, with specific reference to global environmental change scenarios. Hulme and Dessai (2008) use the product-process distinction as a starting point for developing a framework to evaluate the success of scenario exercises. They identify 'prediction success', 'decision success' and 'learning success' as three evaluation metrics for scenarios, with the first two most relevant to scenario products and the last emphasizing procedural aspects of scenarios. They suggest that viewing scenarios primarily as products implies examining how closely actual outcomes have matched envisioned outcomes, while viewing them primarily as processes suggests evaluating the extent to which scenarios engaged participants and enabled their learning. O'Neill and Nakicenovic (2008) focus on Hulme and Dessai's evaluation metric, learning. Based on a review of six scenario/assessment exercises, they ask if and how scenario products have incorporated comparative assessments of results in order to enable cumulative learning across scenario efforts. The authors conclude that, although participating modelling teams have benefited greatly from the process of scenario activities and applied that learning to other scenario exercises in which they engage, learning from comparative assessments of scenario products has been rather limited; the latter due to the limited time and resources invested in comparative analysis. Pitcher (2009) speaks

  17. Full-Reference Image Quality Assessment with Linear Combination of Genetically Selected Quality Measures.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mariusz Oszust

    Full Text Available Information carried by an image can be distorted due to different image processing steps introduced by different electronic means of storage and communication. Therefore, development of algorithms which can automatically assess a quality of the image in a way that is consistent with human evaluation is important. In this paper, an approach to image quality assessment (IQA is proposed in which the quality of a given image is evaluated jointly by several IQA approaches. At first, in order to obtain such joint models, an optimisation problem of IQA measures aggregation is defined, where a weighted sum of their outputs, i.e., objective scores, is used as the aggregation operator. Then, the weight of each measure is considered as a decision variable in a problem of minimisation of root mean square error between obtained objective scores and subjective scores. Subjective scores reflect ground-truth and involve evaluation of images by human observers. The optimisation problem is solved using a genetic algorithm, which also selects suitable measures used in aggregation. Obtained multimeasures are evaluated on four largest widely used image benchmarks and compared against state-of-the-art full-reference IQA approaches. Results of comparison reveal that the proposed approach outperforms other competing measures.

  18. A no-reference video quality assessment metric based on ROI

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jia, Lixiu; Zhong, Xuefei; Tu, Yan; Niu, Wenjuan

    2015-01-01

    A no reference video quality assessment metric based on the region of interest (ROI) was proposed in this paper. In the metric, objective video quality was evaluated by integrating the quality of two compressed artifacts, i.e. blurring distortion and blocking distortion. The Gaussian kernel function was used to extract the human density maps of the H.264 coding videos from the subjective eye tracking data. An objective bottom-up ROI extraction model based on magnitude discrepancy of discrete wavelet transform between two consecutive frames, center weighted color opponent model, luminance contrast model and frequency saliency model based on spectral residual was built. Then only the objective saliency maps were used to compute the objective blurring and blocking quality. The results indicate that the objective ROI extraction metric has a higher the area under the curve (AUC) value. Comparing with the conventional video quality assessment metrics which measured all the video quality frames, the metric proposed in this paper not only decreased the computation complexity, but improved the correlation between subjective mean opinion score (MOS) and objective scores.

  19. Assessment of effectiveness of geologic isolation systems. Perspectives on the geological and hydrological aspects of long-term release scenario analyses

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stottlemyre, J.A.; Wallace, R.W.; Benson, G.L.; Zellmer, J.T.

    1980-06-01

    Information that may be relevant to individuals involved with analyzing long-term release scenarios of specific repositories for nuclear waste is presented. The bulk of the information is derived from recent studies in West Germany and the United States. Emphasis is on the specific geological and hydrological phenomena that, alone or in concert, could potentially perturb the area around specific repository sites. Research is continuing on most of the topics discussed within this report. Because research is ongoing, statements and conclusions described in this document are subject to change. The main topics of this report are: (1) fracturing, (2) geohydrology, (3) magmatic activity, and (4) geomorphology. Therefore, the site-specific nature of the problem cannot be overemphasized. As an example of how one might combine the many synergistic and time-dependent parameters into a concise format the reader is referred to A Conceputal Simulation Model for Release Scenario Analysis of a Hypothetical Site in Columbia Plateau Basalts, PNL-2892. For additional details on the topics in this report, the reader is referred to the Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) consultant report listed in the bibliography.

  20. Is Greulich and Pyle atlas still a good reference for bone age assessment?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Aifeng; Tsao, Sinchai; Sayre, James W.; Gertych, Arkadiusz; Liu, Brent J.; Huang, H. K.

    2007-03-01

    The most commonly used method for bone age assessment in clinical practice is the book atlas matching method developed by Greulich and Pyle in the 1950s. Due to changes in both population diversity and nutrition in the United States, this atlas may no longer be a good reference. An updated data set becomes crucial to improve the bone age assessment process. Therefore, a digital hand atlas was built with 1,100 children hand images, along with patient information and radiologists' readings, of normal Caucasian (CAU), African American (BLK), Hispanic (HIS), and Asian (ASI) males (M) and females (F) with ages ranging from 0 - 18 years. This data was collected from Childrens' Hospital Los Angeles. A computer-aided-diagnosis (CAD) method has been developed based on features extracted from phalangeal regions of interest (ROIs) and carpal bone ROIs from this digital hand atlas. Using the data collected along with the Greulich and Pyle Atlas-based readings and CAD results, this paper addresses this question: "Do different ethnicities and gender have different bone growth patterns?" To help with data analysis, a novel web-based visualization tool was developed to demonstrate bone growth diversity amongst differing gender and ethnic groups using data collected from the Digital Atlas. The application effectively demonstrates a discrepancy of bone growth pattern amongst different populations based on race and gender. It also has the capability of helping a radiologist determine the normality of skeletal development of a particular patient by visualizing his or her chronological age, radiologist reading, and CAD assessed bone age relative to the accuracy of the P&G method.

  1. Assessing reference evapotranspiration at regional scale based on remote sensing, weather forecast and GIS tools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramírez-Cuesta, J. M.; Cruz-Blanco, M.; Santos, C.; Lorite, I. J.

    2017-03-01

    Reference evapotranspiration (ETo) is a key component in efficient water management, especially in arid and semi-arid environments. However, accurate ETo assessment at the regional scale is complicated by the limited number of weather stations and the strict requirements in terms of their location and surrounding physical conditions for the collection of valid weather data. In an attempt to overcome this limitation, new approaches based on the use of remote sensing techniques and weather forecast tools have been proposed. Use of the Land Surface Analysis Satellite Application Facility (LSA SAF) tool and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) have allowed the design and development of innovative approaches for ETo assessment, which are especially useful for areas lacking available weather data from weather stations. Thus, by identifying the best-performing interpolation approaches (such as the Thin Plate Splines, TPS) and by developing new approaches (such as the use of data from the most similar weather station, TS, or spatially distributed correction factors, CITS), errors as low as 1.1% were achieved for ETo assessment. Spatial and temporal analyses reveal that the generated errors were smaller during spring and summer as well as in homogenous topographic areas. The proposed approaches not only enabled accurate calculations of seasonal and daily ETo values, but also contributed to the development of a useful methodology for evaluating the optimum number of weather stations to be integrated into a weather station network and the appropriateness of their locations. In addition to ETo, other variables included in weather forecast datasets (such as temperature or rainfall) could be evaluated using the same innovative methodology proposed in this study.

  2. MIV Project: Mission scenario

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ravazzotti, Mariolina T.; Jørgensen, John Leif; Thuesen, Gøsta;

    1997-01-01

    Under the ESA contract #11453/95/NL/JG(SC), aiming at assessing the feasibility of Rendez-vous and docking of unmanned spacecrafts, a msiision scenario was defined. This report describes the secquence of manouvres and task allocations for such missions....

  3. Comparing forests across climates and biomes: qualitative assessments, reference forests and regional intercomparisons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salk, Carl F; Frey, Ulrich; Rusch, Hannes

    2014-01-01

    Communities, policy actors and conservationists benefit from understanding what institutions and land management regimes promote ecosystem services like carbon sequestration and biodiversity conservation. However, the definition of success depends on local conditions. Forests' potential carbon stock, biodiversity and rate of recovery following disturbance are known to vary with a broad suite of factors including temperature, precipitation, seasonality, species' traits and land use history. Methods like tracking over-time changes within forests, or comparison with "pristine" reference forests have been proposed as means to compare the structure and biodiversity of forests in the face of underlying differences. However, data from previous visits or reference forests may be unavailable or costly to obtain. Here, we introduce a new metric of locally weighted forest intercomparison to mitigate the above shortcomings. This method is applied to an international database of nearly 300 community forests and compared with previously published techniques. It is particularly suited to large databases where forests may be compared among one another. Further, it avoids problematic comparisons with old-growth forests which may not resemble the goal of forest management. In most cases, the different methods produce broadly congruent results, suggesting that researchers have the flexibility to compare forest conditions using whatever type of data is available. Forest structure and biodiversity are shown to be independently measurable axes of forest condition, although users' and foresters' estimations of seemingly unrelated attributes are highly correlated, perhaps reflecting an underlying sentiment about forest condition. These findings contribute new tools for large-scale analysis of ecosystem condition and natural resource policy assessment. Although applied here to forestry, these techniques have broader applications to classification and evaluation problems using crowdsourced

  4. Comparing forests across climates and biomes: qualitative assessments, reference forests and regional intercomparisons.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carl F Salk

    Full Text Available Communities, policy actors and conservationists benefit from understanding what institutions and land management regimes promote ecosystem services like carbon sequestration and biodiversity conservation. However, the definition of success depends on local conditions. Forests' potential carbon stock, biodiversity and rate of recovery following disturbance are known to vary with a broad suite of factors including temperature, precipitation, seasonality, species' traits and land use history. Methods like tracking over-time changes within forests, or comparison with "pristine" reference forests have been proposed as means to compare the structure and biodiversity of forests in the face of underlying differences. However, data from previous visits or reference forests may be unavailable or costly to obtain. Here, we introduce a new metric of locally weighted forest intercomparison to mitigate the above shortcomings. This method is applied to an international database of nearly 300 community forests and compared with previously published techniques. It is particularly suited to large databases where forests may be compared among one another. Further, it avoids problematic comparisons with old-growth forests which may not resemble the goal of forest management. In most cases, the different methods produce broadly congruent results, suggesting that researchers have the flexibility to compare forest conditions using whatever type of data is available. Forest structure and biodiversity are shown to be independently measurable axes of forest condition, although users' and foresters' estimations of seemingly unrelated attributes are highly correlated, perhaps reflecting an underlying sentiment about forest condition. These findings contribute new tools for large-scale analysis of ecosystem condition and natural resource policy assessment. Although applied here to forestry, these techniques have broader applications to classification and evaluation problems

  5. Risk assessment in fractured porous media with particular reference to water catchments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Enzenhoefer, R.; Helmig, R.; Nowak, W.; Binning, P. J.

    2009-04-01

    . As a consequence, the four vulnerability criteria are assessed stochastically. The stochastic approach increases computational costs. As a counter-measure, we approximate the transient contaminant transport process by a higher-order expansion in the temporal moments of breakthrough, which we simulate directly from steady-state moment-generating equations [Harvey and Gorelick, 1995]. The computational time saved by the approximation in transient behaviour is then available for stochastic modelling. For further computational savings, we adopt the reverse formulation of well contamination. With the help of a geostatistical fracture-matrix generator [here: Silberhorn-Hemminger, 2002] we generate artificial fractured-matrix systems, representing the mean characteristic karst properties (e.g. fracture density, etc.) within the study area or any artificial aquifer domain. In a Monte Carlo approach, an ensemble of 1000 fracture-matrix systems are randomly generated, and the flow and transport processes are calculated in DuMuX as a one phase two component model. With an inverse formulation of the steady-state transport problem, the capture zone of the well can be calculated for each realization. The mean arrival time at the well may be calculated directly from the first temporal moment equation. Peak contamination level, peak arrival time, threshold arrival time and exposure time require more information than merely the first temporal moment. In order to reconstruct dispersive contaminant dilution and the shape of the breakthrough curve, the second central temporal moment equation (and higher order moment equations) are applied. Then, by statistical analysis of the ensemble results, all four intrinsic well vulnerability measures can be calculated. The final protection area outlines are given by the maximum acceptable risk level for a water manager towards its water supply from the catchment perspective. To validate our approach for a real case scenario, the whole risk concept

  6. Scenario-based tsunami risk assessment using a static flooding approach and high-resolution digital elevation data: An example from Muscat in Oman

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schneider, Bastian; Hoffmann, Gösta; Reicherter, Klaus

    2016-04-01

    Knowledge of tsunami risk and vulnerability is essential to establish a well-adapted Multi Hazard Early Warning System, land-use planning and emergency management. As the tsunami risk for the coastline of Oman is still under discussion and remains enigmatic, various scenarios based on historical tsunamis were created. The suggested inundation and run-up heights were projected onto the modern infrastructural setting of the Muscat Capital Area. Furthermore, possible impacts of the worst-case tsunami event for Muscat are discussed. The approved Papathoma Tsunami Vulnerability Assessment Model was used to model the structural vulnerability of the infrastructure for a 2 m tsunami scenario, depicting the 1945 tsunami and a 5 m tsunami in Muscat. Considering structural vulnerability, the results suggest a minor tsunami risk for the 2 m tsunami scenario as the flooding is mainly confined to beaches and wadis. Especially traditional brick buildings, still predominant in numerous rural suburbs, and a prevalently coast-parallel road network lead to an increased tsunami risk. In contrast, the 5 m tsunami scenario reveals extensively inundated areas and with up to 48% of the buildings flooded, and therefore consequently a significantly higher tsunami risk. We expect up to 60000 damaged buildings and up to 380000 residents directly affected in the Muscat Capital Area, accompanied with a significant loss of life and damage to vital infrastructure. The rapid urbanization processes in the Muscat Capital Area, predominantly in areas along the coast, in combination with infrastructural, demographic and economic growth will additionally increase the tsunami risk and therefore emphasizes the importance of tsunami risk assessment in Oman.

  7. Spatial, temporal and frequency based climate change assessment in Columbia River Basin using multi downscaled-scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rana, Arun; Moradkhani, Hamid

    2016-07-01

    Uncertainties in climate modelling are well documented in literature. Global Climate Models (GCMs) are often used to downscale the climatic parameters on a regional scale. In the present work, we have analyzed the changes in precipitation and temperature for future scenario period of 2070-2099 with respect to historical period of 1970-2000 from statistically downscaled GCM projections in Columbia River Basin (CRB). Analysis is performed using two different statistically downscaled climate projections (with ten GCMs downscaled products each, for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, from CMIP5 dataset) namely, those from the Bias Correction and Spatial Downscaling (BCSD) technique generated at Portland State University and from the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) technique, generated at University of Idaho, totaling to 40 different scenarios. The two datasets for BCSD and MACA are downscaled from observed data for both scenarios projections i.e. RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Analysis is performed using spatial change (yearly scale), temporal change (monthly scale), percentile change (seasonal scale), quantile change (yearly scale), and wavelet analysis (yearly scale) in the future period from the historical period, respectively, at a scale of 1/16th of degree for entire CRB region. Results have indicated in varied degree of spatial change pattern for the entire Columbia River Basin, especially western part of the basin. At temporal scales, winter precipitation has higher variability than summer and vice versa for temperature. Most of the models have indicated considerate positive change in quantiles and percentiles for both precipitation and temperature. Wavelet analysis provided insights into possible explanation to changes in precipitation.

  8. How to manage uncertainty in future Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) scenarios addressing the effect of climate change in crop production

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Niero, Monia; Ingvordsen, Cathrine Heinz; Bagger Jørgensen, Rikke

    2015-01-01

    future climate conditions. The LCA results, obtained using mainly primary data from phytotron experiments mimicking a future Danish climate, emphasized that adaptation strategies should prioritize the development of resilient and stable cultivars, i.e. robust to the expected extremes of the future....... In this context, the objectives of this paper are two-fold: (i) to recommend an approach to deal with uncertainty in scenario analysis for LCA of crop production in a changed climate, when the goal of the study is to suggest strategies for adaptation of crop cultivation practices towards low environmental impacts...... climate and offering a reasonable yield under different climatic conditions....

  9. Mental Capacity Assessments Among Inpatients Referred to the Consultation-Liaison Psychiatry Unit at a University Hospital in Bangkok, Thailand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pariwatcharakul, Pornjira; Singhakant, Supachoke

    2017-03-01

    Clinicians routinely assess patients' mental capacity on a daily basis, but a more thorough assessment may be needed in complex cases. We aimed to identify the characteristics of inpatients in a general hospital, who were referred to a liaison psychiatry service for mental capacity assessment, reasons for the referrals, and the factors associated with their mental capacity. A 6-year retrospective study (2008-2013) was conducted using data collected routinely (e.g., age, gender, diagnosis, Thai Mental State Examination score, reasons for the referral, and the outcome of capacity assessment) on referrals for mental capacity assessment to a Consultation-liaison Psychiatry Unit at a university hospital in Thailand. Among 6194 consecutive referrals to the liaison-psychiatry services, only 0.6 % [n = 37, mean age (SD), 59.83 (20.42)] were referred for capacity assessment, 43.24 % of which lacked mental capacity. The most common requests from referring physicians were for assessment of testamentary capacity (15 assessed, 53.33 % lacking capacity), financial management capacity (14 assessed, 50 % lacking capacity), and capacity to consent to treatment (9 assessed, 22.22 % lacking capacity). Delirium, rather than dementia or other mental disorders, was associated with mental incapacity (p < 0.001) and being more dependent during the admission (p = 0.048). There were no significant differences for mean age (p = 0.257) or Thai Mental State Examination score (p = 0.206). The main request from referring clinicians was to assess testamentary capacity. Delirium and being more dependent during the admission were associated with lack of mental capacity, whereas age and dementia were not.

  10. Ambient Air Quality Assessment with Particular Reference to Particulates in Jharia Coalfield, Eastern India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Gurdeep; Roy, Debananda; Sinha, Sweta

    2014-01-01

    Jharia Coalfield is the critically polluted area with the intense mining and associated industrial activities. There has been widespread concern of particulate pollution with the alarming levels of Suspended Particulate Matter (SPM) and Respirable Particulate Matter (PM10 & PM2.5). Coke oven plants, coal washing, thermal power stations and associated activities coupled with the transportation activities, give rise to critical air pollution levels in the region. This study envisages the assessment of air pollution of the region with particular reference to SPM, PM10 and PM2.5. Eighteen monitoring stations were selected considering various sources of pollution such as mining, industrial, commercial and residential areas apart from siting criteria as per IS: 5182 Part XIV. Air quality monitoring was carried out following standard methodologies and protocols as per Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB)/ National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) norms using Respirable Dust Samplers (RDS) and Fine Particulate Samplers (PM2.5 Samplers). This study reveals considerable load of particulates (SPM, PM10, PM 2.5) which exceed not only the NAAQS but also the coal mining areas standards of Jharia coalfield, thus falling under the category of critically polluted area. Air Quality Indexing has also been developed which provides a clear map of the deterioration of air quality and also presenting comparative ranking of all the monitoring locations with respect to air quality status in the study area.

  11. Use of internal references for assessing CT density measurements of the pelvis as replacement for use of an external phantom

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boomsma, Martijn F.; Slouwerhof, Inge; Dalen, Jorn A. van [Isala Hospital, Department of Radiology, Zwolle (Netherlands); Edens, Mireille A. [Isala Hospital, Department of Innovation and Science, Zwolle (Netherlands); Mueller, Dirk [Philips Healthcare systems, Hamburg (Germany); Milles, Julien [Philips Healthcare Benelux, Eindhoven (Netherlands); Maas, Mario [AMC, Department of Radiology, Amsterdam (Netherlands)

    2015-11-15

    The purpose of this research is to study the use of an internal reference standard for fat- and muscle as a replacement for an external reference standard with a phantom. By using a phantomless internal reference standard, Hounsfield unit (HU) measurements of various tissues can potentially be assessed in patients with a CT scan of the pelvis without an added phantom at time of CT acquisition. This paves the way for development of a tool for quantification of the change in tissue density in one patient over time and between patients. This could make every CT scan made without contrast available for research purposes. Fifty patients with unilateral metal-on-metal total hip replacements, scanned together with a calibration reference phantom used in bone mineral density measurements, were included in this study. On computed tomography scans of the pelvis without the use of intravenous iodine contrast, reference values for fat and muscle were measured in the phantom as well as within the patient's body. The conformity between the references was examined with the intra-class correlation coefficient. The mean HU (± SD) of reference values for fat for the internal- and phantom references were -91.5 (±7.0) and -90.9 (±7.8), respectively. For muscle, the mean HU (± SD) for the internal- and phantom references were 59.2 (±6.2) and 60.0 (±7.2), respectively. The intra-class correlation coefficients for fat and muscle were 0.90 and 0.84 respectively and show excellent agreement between the phantom and internal references. Internal references can be used with similar accuracy as references from an external phantom. There is no need to use an external phantom to asses CT density measurements of body tissue. (orig.)

  12. Multireader assessment as an alternative to reference assessment to improve the detection of radiographic progression in a large longitudinal cohort of rheumatoid arthritis (ESPOIR)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gandjbakhch, Frederique; Granger, Benjamin; Freund, Romain; Foltz, Violaine; Jousse-Joulin, Sandrine; Devauchelle, Valerie; Afshar, Mona; Albert, Jean David; Bailly, Florian; Constant, Elodie; Biale, Lisa; Milin, Morgane; Couderc, Marion; Denarie, Delphine; Fradin, Anne; Martaille, Virginie; Pierreisnard, Audrey; Poursac, Nicolas; Saraux, Alain; Fautrel, Bruno

    2017-01-01

    Introduction Structural damage progression is a major outcome in rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Its evaluation and follow-up in trials should involve radiographic scoring by 1 or 2 readers (reference assessment), which is challenging in large longitudinal cohorts with multiple assessments. Objectives To compare the reproducibility of multireader and reference assessment to improve the feasibility of detecting radiographic progression in a large cohort of patients with early arthritis (ESPOIR). Methods We used 3 sessions to train 12 rheumatologists in radiographic scoring by the van der Heijde-modified Sharp score (SHS). Multireader scoring was based on 10 trained-reader assessments, each reader scoring a random sample of 1/5 of all available radiographs (for double scoring for each X-ray set) for patients included in the ESPOIR cohort with complete radiographic data at M0 and M60. Reference scoring was performed by 2 experienced readers. Scoring was performed blindly to clinical data, with radiographs in chronological order. We compared multireader and reference assessments by intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs) for SHS and significant radiographic progression (SRP). Results The intrareader and inter-reader reproducibility for trained assessors increased during the training sessions (ICC 0.79 to 0.94 and 0.76 to 0.92), respectively. For the 524 patients included, agreement between multireader and reference assessment of SHS progression between M0 and M60 and SRP assessment were almost perfect, ICC (0.88 (95% CI 0.82 to 0.93)) and (0.99 (95% CI 0.99 to 0.99)), respectively. Conclusions Multireader assessment of radiographic structural damage progression is comparable to reference assessment and could be used to improve the feasibility of radiographic scoring in large longitudinal cohort with numerous X-ray evaluations.

  13. Development and Assessment of CFD Models Including a Supplemental Program Code for Analyzing Buoyancy-Driven Flows Through BWR Fuel Assemblies in SFP Complete LOCA Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Artnak, Edward Joseph, III

    This work seeks to illustrate the potential benefits afforded by implementing aspects of fluid dynamics, especially the latest computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modeling approach, through numerical experimentation and the traditional discipline of physical experimentation to improve the calibration of the severe reactor accident analysis code, MELCOR, in one of several spent fuel pool (SFP) complete loss-ofcoolant accident (LOCA) scenarios. While the scope of experimental work performed by Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) extends well beyond that which is reasonably addressed by our allotted resources and computational time in accordance with initial project allocations to complete the report, these simulated case trials produced a significant array of supplementary high-fidelity solutions and hydraulic flow-field data in support of SNL research objectives. Results contained herein show FLUENT CFD model representations of a 9x9 BWR fuel assembly in conditions corresponding to a complete loss-of-coolant accident scenario. In addition to the CFD model developments, a MATLAB based controlvolume model was constructed to independently assess the 9x9 BWR fuel assembly under similar accident scenarios. The data produced from this work show that FLUENT CFD models are capable of resolving complex flow fields within a BWR fuel assembly in the realm of buoyancy-induced mass flow rates and that characteristic hydraulic parameters from such CFD simulations (or physical experiments) are reasonably employed in corresponding constitutive correlations for developing simplified numerical models of comparable solution accuracy.

  14. Role Assessment of GIS Analysis and its Reliability while Ranking Urban Sustainability Using Scenarios Specific to Regional Climate, Community and Culture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salmi, H. Al; Abdulmuttalib, H. M.

    2012-07-01

    Urban Sustainability expresses the level of conservation of a city while living a town or consuming its urban resources, but the measurement of urban sustainability depends on what are considered important indicators of conservation besides the permitted levels of consumption in accordance with adopted criteria. This criterion should have common factors that are shared for all the members tested or cities to be evaluated as in this particular case for Abu Dhabi, but also have specific factors that are related to the geographic place, community and culture, that is the measures of urban sustainability specific to a middle east climate, community and culture where GIS Vector and Raster analysis have a role or add a value in urban sustainability measurements or grading are considered herein. Scenarios were tested using various GIS data types to replicate urban history (ten years period), current status and expected future of Abu Dhabi City setting factors to climate, community needs and culture. The useful Vector or Raster GIS data sets that are related to every scenario where selected and analysed in the sense of how and how much it can benefit the urban sustainability ranking in quantity and quality tests, this besides assessing the suitable data nature, type and format, the important topology rules to be considered, the useful attributes to be added, the relationships which should be maintained between data types of a geo- database, and specify its usage in a specific scenario test, then setting weights to each and every data type representing some elements of a phenomenon related to urban suitability factor. The results of assessing the role of GIS analysis provided data collection specifications such as the measures of accuracy reliable to a certain type of GIS functional analysis used in an urban sustainability ranking scenario tests. This paper reflects the prior results of the research that is conducted to test the multidiscipline evaluation of urban

  15. ROLE ASSESSMENT OF GIS ANALYSIS AND ITS RELIABILITY WHILE RANKING URBAN SUSTAINABILITY USING SCENARIOS SPECIFIC TO REGIONAL CLIMATE, COMMUNITY AND CULTURE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Al Salmi

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Urban Sustainability expresses the level of conservation of a city while living a town or consuming its urban resources, but the measurement of urban sustainability depends on what are considered important indicators of conservation besides the permitted levels of consumption in accordance with adopted criteria. This criterion should have common factors that are shared for all the members tested or cities to be evaluated as in this particular case for Abu Dhabi, but also have specific factors that are related to the geographic place, community and culture, that is the measures of urban sustainability specific to a middle east climate, community and culture where GIS Vector and Raster analysis have a role or add a value in urban sustainability measurements or grading are considered herein. Scenarios were tested using various GIS data types to replicate urban history (ten years period, current status and expected future of Abu Dhabi City setting factors to climate, community needs and culture. The useful Vector or Raster GIS data sets that are related to every scenario where selected and analysed in the sense of how and how much it can benefit the urban sustainability ranking in quantity and quality tests, this besides assessing the suitable data nature, type and format, the important topology rules to be considered, the useful attributes to be added, the relationships which should be maintained between data types of a geo- database, and specify its usage in a specific scenario test, then setting weights to each and every data type representing some elements of a phenomenon related to urban suitability factor. The results of assessing the role of GIS analysis provided data collection specifications such as the measures of accuracy reliable to a certain type of GIS functional analysis used in an urban sustainability ranking scenario tests. This paper reflects the prior results of the research that is conducted to test the multidiscipline evaluation

  16. Environmental impact assessment and monetary ecosystem service valuation of an ecosystem under different future environmental change and management scenarios; a case study of a Scots pine forest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaubroeck, Thomas; Deckmyn, Gaby; Giot, Olivier; Campioli, Matteo; Vanpoucke, Charlotte; Verheyen, Kris; Rugani, Benedetto; Achten, Wouter; Verbeeck, Hans; Dewulf, Jo; Muys, Bart

    2016-05-15

    For a sustainable future, we must sustainably manage not only the human/industrial system but also ecosystems. To achieve the latter goal, we need to predict the responses of ecosystems and their provided services to management practices under changing environmental conditions via ecosystem models and use tools to compare the estimated provided services between the different scenarios. However, scientific articles have covered a limited amount of estimated ecosystem services and have used tools to aggregate services that contain a significant amount of subjective aspects and that represent the final result in a non-tangible unit such as 'points'. To resolve these matters, this study quantifies the environmental impact (on human health, natural systems and natural resources) in physical units and uses an ecosystem service valuation based on monetary values (including ecosystem disservices with associated negative monetary values). More specifically, the paper also focuses on the assessment of ecosystem services related to pollutant removal/generation flows, accounting for the inflow of eutrophying nitrogen (N) when assessing the effect of N leached to groundwater. Regarding water use/provisioning, evapotranspiration is alternatively considered a disservice because it implies a loss of (potential) groundwater. These approaches and improvements, relevant to all ecosystems, are demonstrated using a Scots pine stand from 2010 to 2089 for a combination of three environmental change and three management scenarios. The environmental change scenarios considered interannual climate variability trends and included alterations in temperature, precipitation, nitrogen deposition, wind speed, Particulate matter (PM) concentration and CO2 concentration. The addressed flows/ecosystem services, including disservices, are as follows: particulate matter removal, freshwater loss, CO2 sequestration, wood production, NOx emissions, NH3 uptake and nitrogen pollution/removal. The monetary

  17. Assessing the Potential Impacts of Four Climate Change Scenarios on the Discharge of the Simiyu River, Tanzania Using the SWAT Model

    OpenAIRE

    Lubini, Alain; Adamowski, Jan

    2013-01-01

    The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to explore the potential impact of four climate change scenarios on discharge from the Simiyu River in Tanzania, located in the Lake Victoria watershed in Africa. The SWAT model used in this study was calibrated and verified by comparing model output with historic stream flow data for 1973-1976 as well as 1970-1971. SWAT was operated at daily and monthly time steps during both calibration and verification. For the daily-time step verification...

  18. Numerical assessment of non-uniform corrosion scenarios of rebar in concrete exposed to natural chloride environment

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    S Muthulingam; B N Rao

    2015-06-01

    Corrosion of embedded rebars is a classical deterioration mechanism that remains as one of the most significant problems limiting the service life of concrete structures exposed to chloride-laden environments. The primary objective of this study is to propose and verify a numerical framework that can efficiently quantify non-uniform corrosion penetration depth along the perimeter of the rebar in concrete exposed to chloride environment. This framework investigates the corrosion process during both the corrosion initiation and propagation phases by exploring the effects of not only the rebar existence but also its sizes and locations. The corrosion initiation phase is examined through a comprehensive chloride ingress model that identifies the most important parameters that influence the intrusion of chlorides into RC. The corrosion propagation phase is studied based on a decisive parameter, namely, the corrosion rate. In addition, the framework evaluates the non-uniform corrosion states that correspond to two scenarios of corrosion penetration depth: corrosion of segment of the rebar and uneven corrosion along the rebar perimeter. Numerical solution shows that, in general, chloride build-up along the perimeter of the corner bar is not only faster but also higher than that of the middle bar. Moreover, for the given values of cover thickness and water-to-binder ratio, time-to-corrosion initiation for the corner bar is faster than that for the middle bar. Furthermore, the larger the rebar, in general, the bigger the obstruction, and therefore, the higher the chloride build-up. Qualitative comparisons of the evaluated non-uniform corrosion scenarios with the variety of available laboratory and field data show good agreement.

  19. Basis for the development of a scenario for ground water risk assessment of plant protection products to banana crop in the frame work of regulation 1107/2009

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alonso-Prados, Elena; Fernández-Getino, Ana Patricia; Alonso-Prados, Jose Luis

    2014-05-01

    The risk assessment to ground water of pesticides and their main metabolites is a data requirement under regulation 1107/2009, concerning the placing of plant protection products on the market. Predicted environmental concentrations (PEC) are calculated according to the recommendations of Forum for the Co-ordination of pesticide fate models and Their Use (FOCUS). The FOCUS groundwater working group developed scenarios for the main crops in European Union. However there are several crops which grow under specific agro-environmental conditions not covered by these scenarios and it is frequent to use the defined scenarios as surrogates. This practice adds an uncertainty factor in the risk assessment. One example is represented by banana crop which in Europe is limited to sub-tropical environmental conditions and with specific agronomic practices. The Canary Islands concentrates the higher production of banana in the European Union characterized by volcanic soils. Banana is located at low altitudes where soils have been eroded or degraded, and it is a common practice to transport soil materials from the high-mid altitudes to the low lands for cultivation. These cultivation plots are locally named "sorribas". These volcanic soils, classified as Andosols according to the FAO classification, have special physico-chemical properties due to noncrystalline materials and layer silicates. The good stability of these soils and their high permeability to water make them relatively resistant to water erosion. Physical properties of volcanic clayey soils are strongly affected by allophone and Fe and Al oxyhidroxides. The rapid weathering of porous volcanic material results in accumulation of stable organo-mineral complexes and short-range-order mineral such as allophane, imogolite and ferrihydrite. These components induce strong aggregation that partly favors properties such as: reduced swelling, increased aggregate stability of clay minerals, high soil water retention capacity

  20. Women referred for occupational risk assessment in pregnancy have no increased risk of adverse obstetric outcomes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bidstrup, Signe Brøker; Kaerlev, Linda; Thulstrup, Ane Marie;

    2015-01-01

    pregnant women referred to two Danish clinics of occupational medicine (Copenhagen and Aarhus) from 1984 to 2010 were compared with the referred women's 1,077 non-referred pregnancy outcomes and with the pregnancy outcomes of 345,467 gainfully employed women from the same geographical areas and time period....... Logistic regression was used to calculate odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Calculations were adjusted for the mother's age at delivery, parity, ethnicity, socioeconomic status, smoking, and in supplementary analyses for year of birth. RESULTS: Referred women gave birth to children...

  1. Putting flow-ecology relationships into practice: A decision-support system to assess fish community response to water-management scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cartwright, Jennifer M.; Caldwell, Casey; Nebiker, Steven; Knight, Rodney

    2017-01-01

    This paper presents a conceptual framework to operationalize flow–ecology relationships into decision-support systems of practical use to water-resource managers, who are commonly tasked with balancing multiple competing socioeconomic and environmental priorities. We illustrate this framework with a case study, whereby fish community responses to various water-management scenarios were predicted in a partially regulated river system at a local watershed scale. This case study simulates management scenarios based on interactive effects of dam operation protocols, withdrawals for municipal water supply, effluent discharges from wastewater treatment, and inter-basin water transfers. Modeled streamflow was integrated with flow–ecology relationships relating hydrologic departure from reference conditions to fish species richness, stratified by trophic, reproductive, and habitat characteristics. Adding a hypothetical new water-withdrawal site was predicted to increase the frequency of low-flow conditions with adverse effects for several fish groups. Imposition of new reservoir release requirements was predicted to enhance flow and fish species richness immediately downstream of the reservoir, but these effects were dissipated further downstream. The framework presented here can be used to translate flow–ecology relationships into evidence-based management by developing decision-support systems for conservation of riverine biodiversity while optimizing water availability for human use.

  2. Toward a No-Reference Image Quality Assessment Using Statistics of Perceptual Color Descriptors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Dohyoung; Plataniotis, Konstantinos N

    2016-08-01

    Analysis of the statistical properties of natural images has played a vital role in the design of no-reference (NR) image quality assessment (IQA) techniques. In this paper, we propose parametric models describing the general characteristics of chromatic data in natural images. They provide informative cues for quantifying visual discomfort caused by the presence of chromatic image distortions. The established models capture the correlation of chromatic data between spatially adjacent pixels by means of color invariance descriptors. The use of color invariance descriptors is inspired by their relevance to visual perception, since they provide less sensitive descriptions of image scenes against viewing geometry and illumination variations than luminances. In order to approximate the visual quality perception of chromatic distortions, we devise four parametric models derived from invariance descriptors representing independent aspects of color perception: 1) hue; 2) saturation; 3) opponent angle; and 4) spherical angle. The practical utility of the proposed models is examined by deploying them in our new general-purpose NR IQA metric. The metric initially estimates the parameters of the proposed chromatic models from an input image to constitute a collection of quality-aware features (QAF). Thereafter, a machine learning technique is applied to predict visual quality given a set of extracted QAFs. Experimentation performed on large-scale image databases demonstrates that the proposed metric correlates well with the provided subjective ratings of image quality over commonly encountered achromatic and chromatic distortions, indicating that it can be deployed on a wide variety of color image processing problems as a generalized IQA solution.

  3. The survival effect in memory: does it hold into old age and non-ancestral scenarios?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Lixia; Lau, Karen P L; Truong, Linda

    2014-01-01

    The survival effect in memory refers to the memory enhancement for materials encoded in reference to a survival scenario compared to those encoded in reference to a control scenario or with other encoding strategies. The current study examined whether this effect is well maintained in old age by testing young (ages 18-29) and older adults (ages 65-87) on the survival effect in memory for words encoded in ancestral and/or non-ancestral modern survival scenarios relative to a non-survival control scenario. A pilot study was conducted to select the best matched comparison scenarios based on potential confounding variables, such as valence and arousal. Experiment 1 assessed the survival effect with a well-matched negative control scenario in both young and older adults. The results showed an age-equivalent survival effect across an ancestral and a non-ancestral modern survival scenario. Experiment 2 replicated the survival effect in both age groups with a positive control scenario. Taken together, the data suggest a robust survival effect that is well preserved in old age across ancestral and non-ancestral survival scenarios.

  4. Reliable assessment of general surgeons' non-technical skills based on video-recordings of patient simulated scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Spanager, Lene; Beier-Holgersen, Randi; Dieckmann, Peter;

    2013-01-01

    Nontechnical skills are essential for safe and efficient surgery. The aim of this study was to evaluate the reliability of an assessment tool for surgeons' nontechnical skills, Non-Technical Skills for Surgeons dk (NOTSSdk), and the effect of rater training.......Nontechnical skills are essential for safe and efficient surgery. The aim of this study was to evaluate the reliability of an assessment tool for surgeons' nontechnical skills, Non-Technical Skills for Surgeons dk (NOTSSdk), and the effect of rater training....

  5. An integrated exposure assessment of phthalates for the general population in China based on both exposure scenario and biomonitoring estimation approaches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, Yan; Liu, Jianguo; Liu, Yang; Wang, Jie; Hao, Xuewen

    2016-02-01

    The representativeness of available studies on integrated exposure assessment of phthalates for the general population in China is lacking. Based on an exhaustive review of the extensive monitoring data available for China, this study presents a large-scale estimation of exposure levels to three typical phthalates, di(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate (DEHP), di-n-butyl phthalate (DBP) and diisobutyl phthalate (DiBP), by applying both exposure scenario and biomonitoring estimation approaches. The respective median exposure levels from the exposure scenario and biomonitoring estimation approaches were 3.80, 3.02 and 1.00 μg/kg bw/day and 3.38, 3.21 and 3.32 μg/kg bw/day for DEHP, DBP and DiBP, which are acceptable levels of exposure with respect to current international guidelines. Evaluation results from the two approaches showed both similarities and differences among the different phthalates, making the exposure assessment comparable and more comprehensive. In terms of sources of exposure, food intake was the largest contributor, while indoor air exposure had greater contribution to the estimated daily intakes (EDIs) of DiBP than that of the other phthalates. Moreover, more attention should be paid to the higher exposure levels of phthalates in several intensively industrialized and urbanized areas, and the causes of the different exposure levels in the different regions need to be further explored.

  6. Comparison of scenarios for the integrated management of construction and demolition waste by life cycle assessment: A case study in Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Penteado, Carmenlucia Santos Giordano; Rosado, Laís Peixoto

    2016-10-01

    Brazil, as a result of economic development and strengthening of the construction industry in recent years, is generating an increasing amount of construction and demolition waste (CDW). Hence, environmental assessment of the management systems is vital. A life cycle assessment (LCA) is presented of CDW management in a medium-sized municipality located in the southeast region of Brazil, where the impacts of leaching were not considered due to absence of consistent data. Six different proposed scenarios for the current CDW management situation have been considered. These scenarios comprised the combined use of landfilling, sorting, and recycling, and the use of CDW as paving material for landfill roads, in different percentages. Considering 0.8 ton of waste as the functional unit, the life cycle inventory was performed using primary data obtained from field survey and secondary data from the database Ecoinvent version 3.1, and from the literature. The method CML 2 baseline 2001 was used for environmental impacts evaluation. The results highlight that recycling is beneficial when efficient CDW sorting takes place at construction sites, avoiding the transport of refuse to sorting and recycling facilities, and the distance between the generation source and the recycling unit is within 30 km. Thus, our results are helpful to ensure that the decision-making processes are based on environmental and technical aspects, and not only on economic and political factors, and also provide data and support for other LCA studies on CDW.

  7. Usability Assessment of International Office Website of Diponegoro University With Scenario Based Usability Evaluation Method and Wammi Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ratna Purwaningsih

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Website development needs to pay attention to usability aspect which consist of four factors: efficiency, effectiveness, satisfactions and error rate. The website of International Office of Diponegoro University provides academic information for Indonesian students and foreign students. The website still has some problem, especially on searching certain information. This research aims to evaluate the design of the existing website and measures the usability. A well-designed website will help users to meet theirs needs and purposes. The methods used in this study are Scenario-Based End-User Evaluation and WAMMI (Website Analysis and Measurement Inventory. Users perform a number of task on the existing website and on the redesigned website and then provide feedback for each task they have done and fill a WAMMI questionnaire as a test of memorability. This questionnaire used to test users memory on access process of a page from the site. The results of the data processing of usability test show that redesigned website has better value than existing website on effectiveness, efficiency, memorability and error rate.

  8. A stochastic dynamic model to assess land use change scenarios on the ecological status of fluvial water bodies under the Water Framework Directive

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hughes, Samantha Jane, E-mail: shughes@utad.pt [Fluvial Ecology Laboratory, CITAB – Centre for the Research and Technology of Agro-Environment and Biological Sciences, University of Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro, Vila Real (Portugal); Cabral, João Alexandre, E-mail: jcabral@utad.pt [Laboratory of Applied Ecology, CITAB – Centre for the Research and Technology of Agro-Environment and Biological Sciences, University of Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro, Vila Real (Portugal); Bastos, Rita, E-mail: ritabastos@utad.pt [Laboratory of Applied Ecology, CITAB – Centre for the Research and Technology of Agro-Environment and Biological Sciences, University of Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro, Vila Real (Portugal); Cortes, Rui, E-mail: rcortes@utad.pt [Fluvial Ecology Laboratory, CITAB – Centre for the Research and Technology of Agro-Environment and Biological Sciences, University of Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro, Vila Real (Portugal); Vicente, Joana, E-mail: jsvicente@fc.up.pt [Centro de Investigacão em Biodiversidade e Recursos Genéticos (CIBIO), Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade do Porto, Porto (Portugal); Eitelberg, David, E-mail: d.a.eitelberg@vu.nl [Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences, VU University Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1087, 1081 HV Amsterdam (Netherlands); Yu, Huirong, E-mail: h.yu@vu.nl [Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences, VU University Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1087, 1081 HV Amsterdam (Netherlands); College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University, 2 Yuanmingyuan W. Road, Haidian District, Beijing 100193 (China); and others

    2016-09-15

    This method development paper outlines an integrative stochastic dynamic methodology (StDM) framework to anticipate land use (LU) change effects on the ecological status of monitored and non-monitored lotic surface waters under the Water Framework Directive (WFD). Tested in the Alto Minho River Basin District in North West Portugal, the model is an innovative step towards developing a decision-making and planning tool to assess the influence impacts such as LU change and climate change on these complex systems. Comprising a series of sequential steps, a Generalized Linear Model based, competing model Multi Model Inference (MMI) approach was used for parameter estimation to identify principal land use types (distal factors) driving change in biological and physicochemical support elements (proximal factors) in monitored water bodies. The framework integrated MMI constants and coefficients of selected LU categories in the StDM simulations and spatial projections to simulate the ecological status of monitored and non-monitored lotic waterbodies in the test area under 2 scenarios of (1) LU intensification and (2) LU extensification. A total of 100 simulations were run for a 50 year period for each scenario. Spatially dynamic projections of WFD metrics were obtained, taking into account the occurrence of stochastic wildfire events which typically occur in the study region and are exacerbated by LU change. A marked projected decline to “Moderate” ecological status for most waterbodies was detected under intensification but little change under extensification; only a few waterbodies fell to “moderate” status. The latter scenario describes the actual regional socio-economic situation of agricultural abandonment due to rural poverty, partly explaining the projected lack of change in ecological status. Based on the WFD “one out all out” criterion, projected downward shifts in ecological status were due to physicochemical support elements, namely increased

  9. Expert judgment-based risk assessment using statistical scenario analysis: a case study-running the bulls in Pamplona (Spain).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mallor, Fermín; García-Olaverri, Carmen; Gómez-Elvira, Sagrario; Mateo-Collazas, Pedro

    2008-08-01

    In this article, we present a methodology to assess the risk incurred by a participant in an activity involving danger of injury. The lack of high-quality historical data for the case considered prevented us from constructing a sufficiently detailed statistical model. It was therefore decided to generate a risk assessment model based on expert judgment. The methodology is illustrated in a real case context: the assessment of risk to participants in a San Fermin bull-run in Pamplona (Spain). The members of the panel of "experts on the bull-run" represented very different perspectives on the phenomenon: runners, surgeons and other health care personnel, journalists, civil defense workers, security staff, organizers, herdsmen, authors of books on the bull-run, etc. We consulted 55 experts. Our methodology includes the design of a survey instrument to elicit the experts' views and the statistical and mathematical procedures used to aggregate their subjective opinions.

  10. Reference intervals for platelet aggregation assessed by multiple electrode platelet aggregometry

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rubak, Peter; Villadsen, Kirsten; Hvas, Anne-Mette

    2012-01-01

    Abstract Introduction Analyses of platelet aggregation in hirudin whole blood using Multiplate® was validated. Reference intervals for the most commonly used agonists were established, and the association between platelet aggregation, age, gender and haematological values was analysed. Material...... and methods We included 121 healthy individuals to establish reference intervals and six healthy individuals for evaluation of the day-to-day variation. Platelet aggregation was evaluated on hirudin whole blood employing Multiplate® induced by arachidonic acid, ADP, collagen and ristocetin (RISTOlow...... reference interval is presented as 95% confidence interval suitable for any age and both sex. Day-to-day variation was

  11. Assessment of the impact of the greenhouse gas emission and sink scenarios in Finland on radiative forcing and greenhouse effect

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Savolainen, I.; Sinisalo, J.; Pipatti, R. [Technical Research Centre of Finland, Espoo (Finland)

    1996-12-31

    The objective of this work is to study greenhouse gas emissions and sinks and their greenhouse impact as a function of time. The greenhouse impact is expressed in terms of global average radiative forcing, which measures the perturbation in the Earth`s radiation budget. Radiative forcing is calculated on the basis of the concentration changes of the greenhouse gases and the radiation absorption properties of the gases. It takes into account the relatively slow changes in the concentrations due to natural removal and transformation processes and also allows a comparison of the impact of various greenhouse gases and their possible control options as a function of time. In addition to the applications mentioned above, the anthropogenic greenhouse gas emission histories of Nordic countries have been estimated, and the radiative forcing caused by them has been calculated with REFUGE. The dynamic impact of aerosol emissions both from the global point of view and in the context of different energy sources (coal, oil and natural gas) have also been studied. In some instances the caused radiative forcing has been examined on a per capita basis. The radiative forcing calculations contain considerable uncertainty due to inaccurately known factors at several stages of the calculation (emission estimation, concentration calculation and radiative forcing calculation). The total uncertainty of the results is typically on the order of +- 40 %, when absolute values are used. If the results are used in a relative way, e.g. to compare the impacts of different scenarios, the final uncertainty is considerably less (typically + 10 %), due to correlations in almost all stages of the calculation process

  12. The Experimental Effects of the Strategic Adolescent Reading Intervention (STARI) on a Scenarios-Based Reading Comprehension Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, James; Hemphill, Lowry; Troyer, Margaret; Jones, Stephanie; LaRusso, Maria; Kim, Ha-Yeon; Donovan, Suzanne; Snow, Catherine

    2016-01-01

    Nearly one-quarter of U.S. eighth graders score below basic on national assessments of reading (NCES, 2013) and are poorly equipped for the reading demands of secondary school. Struggling adolescent readers cannot summarize a simple passage, use context to determine word meanings, and have difficulties making text-based inferences. In addition,…

  13. System and scenario choices in the life cycle assessment of a building – changing impacts of the environmental profile

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Freja; Birgisdóttir, Harpa; Birkved, Morten

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a life cycle assessment (LCA) case study of an office building. The case study investigates how the setting of free parameters (adopted from the CEN/TC 350 standards) influences the results of the building’s LCA in the DGNB certification scheme for sustainable buildings...

  14. Measuring the sustainability of policy scenarios: Emergy-based strategic environmental assessment of the Chinese paper industry

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ren Jing-Ming,; Zhang, L.; Wang Ru-song,

    2010-01-01

    Recent years have seen increasing demand for wider application of strategic environmental assessment (SEA), especially SEA of major policies, as a powerful instrument to safeguard the environment during the rapid industrialization and urbanization in China. Debates on SEA are concentrated on its fea

  15. A Danish reference chart for assessment of psychomotor development based on the Ages & Stages Questionnaire

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Østergaard, Katrine Kure; Lando, Ane Vibeke; Hansen, Bo Mølholm;

    2012-01-01

    The aim of this study was to obtain Ages and Stages Questionnaire (ASQ) scores from the background population so that these may be used as a reference group to extremely preterm children at nine and 18 months of corrected age....

  16. Proposed methodology for completion of scenario analysis for the Basalt Waste Isolation Project. [Assessment of post-closure performance for a proposed repository for high-level nuclear waste

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Roberds, W.J.; Plum, R.J.; Visca, P.J.

    1984-11-01

    This report presents the methodology to complete an assessment of postclosure performance, considering all credible scenarios, including the nominal case, for a proposed repository for high-level nuclear waste at the Hanford Site, Washington State. The methodology consists of defensible techniques for identifying and screening scenarios, and for then assessing the risks associated with each. The results of the scenario analysis are used to comprehensively determine system performance and/or risk for evaluation of compliance with postclosure performance criteria (10 CFR 60 and 40 CFR 191). In addition to describing the proposed methodology, this report reviews available methodologies for scenario analysis, discusses pertinent performance assessment and uncertainty concepts, advises how to implement the methodology (including the organizational requirements and a description of tasks) and recommends how to use the methodology in guiding future site characterization, analysis, and engineered subsystem design work. 36 refs., 24 figs., 1 tab.

  17. Development of National Future Extreme Heat Scenario to Enable the Assessment of Climate Impacts on Public Health

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quattrochi, Dale A.; Cresson, William L.; Al-Hamdan, Mohammad Z.; Estes, Maurice G.

    2013-01-01

    The project's emphasis is on providing assessments of the magnitude, frequency and geographic distribution of EHEs to facilitate public health studies. We focus on the daily to weekly time scales on which EHEs occur, not on decadal-scale climate changes. There is, however, a very strong connection between air temperature patterns at the two time scales and long-term climatic changes will certainly alter the frequency of EHEs.

  18. Radiological consequence assessments of degraded core accident scenarios derived from a generic Level 2 PSA of a BWR

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Homma, Toshimitsu; Ishikawa, Jun; Tomita, Kenichi; Muramatsu, Ken [Japan Atomic Energy Research Inst., Tokai, Ibaraki (Japan). Tokai Research Establishment

    2000-12-01

    The radiological consequence assessments have been made of postulated core damage accidents with source terms derived from a generic Level 2 PSA of a BWR carried out by the Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute (JAERI). The source terms used were for the five core damage accident sequences with the drywell and wetwell failure cases, the release control case by venting of the containment and the accident termination case by the containment spray. The radiological consequences have been assessed for individual dose, collective dose, individual risk of early health effects and individual risk of late health effects by a probabilistic accident consequence assessment code, OSCAAR developed in JAERI. Following conclusions were obtained for the assumed source terms. In case of the over pressure failures of the primary containment vessel, the early fatalities can be mitigated through the implementation of early countermeasures, and the late cancer fatalities remains small. For the release control and accident termination cases, the individual and collective doses to the public can be reduced without any countermeasures due to the release reduction of the volatile radionuclides such as iodine and cesium. (author)

  19. A statistical assessment of differences and equivalences between genetically modified and reference plant varieties

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Voet, van der H.; Perry, J.N.; Amzal, B.; Paoletti, C.

    2011-01-01

    Background - Safety assessment of genetically modified organisms is currently often performed by comparative evaluation. However, natural variation of plant characteristics between commercial varieties is usually not considered explicitly in the statistical computations underlying the assessment. Re

  20. A statistical assessment of differences and equivalences between genetically modified and reference plant varieties

    OpenAIRE

    Amzal Billy; Perry Joe N; van der Voet Hilko; Paoletti Claudia

    2011-01-01

    Abstract Background Safety assessment of genetically modified organisms is currently often performed by comparative evaluation. However, natural variation of plant characteristics between commercial varieties is usually not considered explicitly in the statistical computations underlying the assessment. Results Statistical methods are described for the assessment of the difference between a genetically modified (GM) plant variety and a conventional non-GM counterpart, and for the assessment o...

  1. Knowledge brokering on emissions modelling in Strategic Environmental Assessment of Estonian energy policy with special reference to the LEAP model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kuldna, Piret, E-mail: piret.kuldna@seit.ee [Stockholm Environment Institute Tallinn Centre, Lai 34, Tallinn 10133 (Estonia); Peterson, Kaja [Stockholm Environment Institute Tallinn Centre, Lai 34, Tallinn 10133 (Estonia); Kuhi-Thalfeldt, Reeli [Stockholm Environment Institute Tallinn Centre, Lai 34, Tallinn 10133 (Estonia); Tallinn University of Technology, Ehitajate tee 5, Tallinn 19086 (Estonia)

    2015-09-15

    Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) serves as a platform for bringing together researchers, policy developers and other stakeholders to evaluate and communicate significant environmental and socio-economic effects of policies, plans and programmes. Quantitative computer models can facilitate knowledge exchange between various parties that strive to use scientific findings to guide policy-making decisions. The process of facilitating knowledge generation and exchange, i.e. knowledge brokerage, has been increasingly explored, but there is not much evidence in the literature on how knowledge brokerage activities are used in full cycles of SEAs which employ quantitative models. We report on the SEA process of the national energy plan with reflections on where and how the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) model was used for knowledge brokerage on emissions modelling between researchers and policy developers. Our main suggestion is that applying a quantitative model not only in ex ante, but also ex post scenario modelling and associated impact assessment can facilitate systematic and inspiring knowledge exchange process on a policy problem and capacity building of participating actors. - Highlights: • We examine the knowledge brokering on emissions modelling between researchers and policy developers in a full cycle of SEA. • Knowledge exchange process can evolve at any modelling stage within SEA. • Ex post scenario modelling enables systematic knowledge exchange and learning on a policy problem.

  2. Spatial assessment of the economic feasibility of short rotation coppice on radioactively contaminated land in Belarus, Ukraine, and Russia. I. Model description and scenario analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perk Mv, Marcel van der; Burema, Jiske; Vandenhove, Hildegarde; Goor, François; Timofeyev, Sergei

    2004-09-01

    The economic feasibility of short rotation coppice (SRC) production and energy conversion in areas contaminated by Chernobyl-derived (137)Cs was evaluated taking the spatial variability of environmental conditions into account. Two sequential GIS-embedded submodels were developed for a spatial assessment, which allow for spatial variation in soil contamination, soil type, and land use. These models were applied for four SRC production and four energy conversion scenarios for the entire contaminated area of Ukraine, Belarus, and Russia and for a part of the Bragin district, Belarus. It was concluded that in general medium-scale SRC production using local machines is most profitable. The areas near Chernobyl are not suitable for SRC production since the contamination levels in SRC wood exceed the intervention limit. Large scale SRC production is not profitable in areas where dry and sandy soils predominate. If the soil contamination does not exceed the intervention limit and sufficient SRC wood is available, all energy conversion scenarios are profitable.

  3. Synthetic Scenarios from CMIP5 Model Simulations for Climate Change Impact Assessments in Managed Ecosystems and Water Resources: Case Study in South Asian Countries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anandhi, A.; Omani, N.; Chaubey, I.; Horton, R.; Bader, D.; Nanjundiah, R. S.

    2017-01-01

    Increasing population, urbanization, and associated demand for food production compounded by climate change and variability have important implications for the managed ecosystems and water resources of a region. This is particularly true for south Asia, which supports one quarter of the global population, half of whom live below the poverty line. This region is largely dependent on monsoon precipitation for water. Given the limited resources of the developing countries in this region, the objective of our study was to empirically explore climate change in south Asia up to the year 2099 using monthly simulations from 35 global climate models (GCMs) participating in the fifth phase of the Climate Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) for two future emission scenarios (representative concentration pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and provide a wide range of potential climate change outcomes. This was carried out using a three-step procedure: calculating the mean annual, monsoon, and non-monsoon precipitation and temperatures; estimating the percent change from historical conditions; and developing scenario funnels and synthetic scenarios. This methodology was applied for the entire south Asia region; however, the percent change information generated at 1.5deg grid scale can be used to generate scenarios at finer spatial scales. Our results showed a high variability in the future change in precipitation (-23% to 52%, maximum in the non-monsoon season) and temperature (0.8% to 2.1%) in the region. Temperatures in the region consistently increased, especially in the Himalayan region, which could have impacts including a faster retreat of glaciers and increased floods. It could also change rivers from perennial to seasonal, leading to significant challenges in water management. Increasing temperatures could further stress groundwater reservoirs, leading to withdrawal rates that become even more unsustainable. The high precipitation variability (with higher propensity for

  4. Geographical scenario uncertainty in generic fate and exposure factors of toxic pollutants for life-cycle impact assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huijbregts, M A J; Lundi, S; McKone, T E; van de Meent, D

    2003-05-01

    In environmental life-cycle assessments (LCA), fate and exposure factors account for the general fate and exposure properties of chemicals under generic environmental conditions by means of 'evaluative' multi-media fate and exposure box models. To assess the effect of using different generic environmental conditions, fate and exposure factors of chemicals emitted under typical conditions of (1). Western Europe, (2). Australia and (3). the United States of America were compared with the multi-media fate and exposure box model USES-LCA. Comparing the results of the three evaluative environments, it was found that the uncertainty in fate and exposure factors for ecosystems and humans due to choice of an evaluative environment, as represented by the ratio of the 97.5th and 50th percentile, is between a factor 2 and 10. Particularly, fate and exposure factors of emissions causing effects in fresh water ecosystems and effects on human health have relatively high uncertainty. This uncertainty is mainly caused by the continental difference in the average soil erosion rate, the dimensions of the fresh water and agricultural soil compartment, and the fraction of drinking water coming from ground water.

  5. Normalized mean shapes and reference index values for computerized quantitative assessment indices of chest wall deformities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Ho Chul; Park, Man Sik; Lee, Seong Keon; Nam, Ki Chang; Park, Hyung Joo; Kim, Min Gi; Song, Jae-Jun; Choi, Hyuk

    2015-11-01

    We previously proposed a computerized index (eccentricity index [EI]) for chest-wall deformity measurements, such as pectus excavatum. We sought to define mean shapes based on normal chest walls and to propose for computerized index reference values of that are used in the quantitative analysis of the severity of chest-wall deformities. A total of 584 patients were classified into 18 groups, and a database of their chest-wall computed tomography (CT) scan images was constructed. The boundaries of the chest wall were extracted by using a segmentation algorithm, and the mean shapes were subsequently developed. The reference index values were calculated from the developed mean shapes. Reference index values for the EI were compared with a conventional index, the Haller index (HI). A close association has been shown between the two indices in multiple subjects (r = 0.974, P < 0.001). The newly developed mean shapes and reference index values supply both reliability and objectivity to the diagnosis, analysis, and treatment of chest-wall deformities. They promise to be highly useful in clinical settings.

  6. Assessment of minute volume of lung in NPP workers for Korean reference man

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Y. J.; Song, S. H.; Lee, J.; Jin, Y. W.; Yim, Y. K.; Kim, J. S. [KNETEC, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2001-05-01

    To formulation of the reference Korean for radiation protection purpose, we measured the forced vital capacity(FVC), forced expiratory volume in second(FEVI), minute ventilation(MV) of Nuclear Power Plant workers using SP-1 Spirometry Unit(Schiller AG. 1998) and eatimated the liters of breathed for working and resting, also compared these data with ICRP 23.

  7. Assessment of international reference materials for isotope-ratio analysis (IUPAC Technical Report)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brand, Willi A.; Coplen, Tyler B.; Vogl, Jochen; Rosner, Martin; Prohaska, Thomas

    2014-01-01

    Since the early 1950s, the number of international measurement standards for anchoring stable isotope delta scales has mushroomed from 3 to more than 30, expanding to more than 25 chemical elements. With the development of new instrumentation, along with new and improved measurement procedures for studying naturally occurring isotopic abundance variations in natural and technical samples, the number of internationally distributed, secondary isotopic reference materials with a specified delta value has blossomed in the last six decades to more than 150 materials. More than half of these isotopic reference materials were produced for isotope-delta measurements of seven elements: H, Li, B, C, N, O, and S. The number of isotopic reference materials for other, heavier elements has grown considerably over the last decade. Nevertheless, even primary international measurement standards for isotope-delta measurements are still needed for some elements, including Mg, Fe, Te, Sb, Mo, and Ge. It is recommended that authors publish the delta values of internationally distributed, secondary isotopic reference materials that were used for anchoring their measurement results to the respective primary stable isotope scale.

  8. Subjective memory ability and long-term forgetting in patients referred for neuropsychological assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Werf, S.P. van der; Geurts, S.; Werd, M.M.E. de

    2016-01-01

    It has been suggested that the memory complaints of patients who are not impaired on formal memory tests may reflect accelerated forgetting. We examined this hypothesis by comparing the 1-week delayed recall and recognition test performance of outpatients who were referred for neuropsychological ass

  9. "When was that date?" Building and assessing a frame of reference in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Drie, J.; Logtenberg, A.; van der Meijden, B.; van Riessen, M.

    2009-01-01

    Concerns about our ability to equip young people with a frame of reference that they can actually use to orient themselves in time are widespread. The challenges were extensively debated within the last issue of Teaching History, with teachers, researchers and historians not only exploring the merit

  10. Scenario-based assessment of future food security%基于空间模型的全球粮食安全评价

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    吴文斌; 唐华俊; 杨鹏; 游良志; 周清波; 陈仲新; 柴崎亮介

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents a scenario-based assessment of global future food security. To do that, the socio-economic and climate change scenarios were defined for the future and were linked to an integrated modeling framework. The crop yields simulated by the GIS-based Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model and crop areas simulated by the crop choice decision model were combined to calculate the total food production and per capita food availability, which was used to represent the status of food availability and stability. The per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP) simulated by IFPSIM model was used to reflect the situation of food accessibility and affordability. Based on these two indicators,the future food security status was assessed at a global scale over a period of approximately 20 years, starting from the year 2000. The results show that certain regions such as South Asia and most African countries will likely remain hotspots of food insecurity in the future as both the per capita food availability and the capacity of being able to import food will decrease between 2000 and 2020. Low food production associated with poverty is the determining factor to starvation in these regions, and more efforts are needed to combat hunger in terms of future actions. Other regions such as China, most Eastern European countries and most South American countries where there is an increase in per capita food availability or an increase in the capacity to import food between 2000 and 2020 might be able to improve their food security situation.

  11. Scenario-targeted toxicity assessment through multiple endpoint bioassays in a soil posing unacceptable environmental risk according to regulatory screening values.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez-Ruiz, A; Etxebarria, J; Boatti, L; Marigómez, I

    2015-09-01

    Lanestosa is a chronically polluted site (derelict mine) where the soil (Lanestosa (LA) soil) exceeds screening values (SVs) of regulatory policies in force (Basque Country; Europe) for Zn, Pb and Cd. A scenario-targeted toxicity assessment was carried out on the basis of a multi-endpoint bioassay approach. Acute and chronic toxicity bioassays were conducted with selected test species (Vibrio fischeri, Dictyostelium discoideum, Lactuca sativa, Raphanus sativus and Eisenia fetida) in combination with chemical analysis of soils and elutriates and with bioaccumulation studies in earthworms. Besides, the toxicity profile was compared with that of the mine runoff (RO) soil and of a fresh artificially polluted soil (LAAPS) resembling LA soil pollutant profile. Extractability studies in LA soil revealed that Pb, Zn and Cd were highly available for exchange and/or release into the environment. Indeed, Pb and Zn were accumulated in earthworms and LA soil resulted to be toxic. Soil respiration, V. fischeri, vegetative and developmental cycles of D. discoideum and survival and juvenile production of E. fetida were severely affected. These results confirmed that LA soil had unacceptable environmental risk and demanded intervention. In contrast, although Pb and Zn concentrations in RO soil revealed also unacceptable risk, both metal extractability and toxicity were much lower than in LA soil. Thus, within the polluted site, the need for intervention varied between areas that posed dissimilar risk. Besides, since LAAPS, with a high exchangeable metal fraction, was the most toxic, ageing under in situ natural conditions seemingly contributed to attenuate LA soil risk. As a whole, combining multi-endpoint bioassays with scenario-targeted analysis (including leaching and ageing) provides reliable risk assessment in soils posing unacceptable environmental risk according to SVs, which is useful to optimise the required intervention measures.

  12. Participatory Scenario Generation: Communicating Usability Issues in Product Design through User Involvement in Scenario Generation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bijl-Brouwer, van der Mieke; Voort, van der Mascha C.

    2009-01-01

    Scenarios have proven to be a valuable tool in evaluating and communicating usability issues in consumer product design. Scenarios are explicit descriptions of hypothetical use situations. Realistic scenarios can serve as a valuable frame of reference to evaluate design solutions with regard to usab

  13. Assessing Risks to Sea Otters and the Exxon Valdez Oil Spill: New Scenarios, Attributable Risk, and Recovery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harwell, Mark A.; Gentile, John H.

    2014-01-01

    The Exxon Valdez oil spill occurred more than two decades ago, and the Prince William Sound ecosystem has essentially recovered. Nevertheless, discussion continues on whether or not localized effects persist on sea otters (Enhydra lutris) at northern Knight Island (NKI) and, if so, what are the associated attributable risks. A recent study estimated new rates of sea otter encounters with subsurface oil residues (SSOR) from the oil spill. We previously demonstrated that a potential pathway existed for exposures to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and conducted a quantitative ecological risk assessment using an individual-based model that simulated this and other plausible exposure pathways. Here we quantitatively update the potential for this exposure pathway to constitute an ongoing risk to sea otters using the new estimates of SSOR encounters. Our conservative model predicted that the assimilated doses of PAHs to the 1-in-1000th most-exposed sea otters would remain 1–2 orders of magnitude below the chronic effects thresholds. We re-examine the baseline estimates, post-spill surveys, recovery status, and attributable risks for this subpopulation. We conclude that the new estimated frequencies of encountering SSOR do not constitute a plausible risk for sea otters at NKI and these sea otters have fully recovered from the oil spill. PMID:24587690

  14. Comparative life cycle assessment and life cycle costing of four disposal scenarios for used polyethylene terephthalate bottles in Mauritius.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foolmaun, Rajendra Kumar; Ramjeeawon, Toolseeram

    2012-09-01

    The annual rise in population growth coupled with the flourishing tourism industry in Mauritius has lead to a considerable increase in the amount of solid waste generated. In parallel, the disposal of non-biodegradable wastes, especially plastic packaging and plastic bottles, has also shown a steady rise. Improper disposal of used polyethylene terephthalate (PET) bottles constitutes an eyesore to the environmental landscape and is a threat to the flourishing tourism industry. It is of utmost importance, therefore, to determine a suitable disposal method for used PET bottles which is not only environmentally efficient but is also cost effective. This study investigated the environmental impacts and the cost effectiveness of four selected disposal alternatives for used PET bottles in Mauritius. The four disposal routes investigated were: 100% landfilling; 75% incineration with energy recovery and 25% landfilling; 40% flake production (partial recycling) and 60% landfilling; and 75% flake production and 25% landfilling. Environmental impacts of the disposal alternatives were determined using ISO standardized life cycle assessment (LCA) and with the support of SimaPro 7.1 software. Cost effectiveness was determined using life cycle costing (LCC). Collected data were entered into a constructed Excel-based model to calculate the different cost categories, Net present values, damage costs and payback periods. LCA and LCC results indicated that 75% flake production and 25% landfilling was the most environmentally efficient and cost-effective disposal route for used PET bottles in Mauritius.

  15. Pesticide leaching FOCUS scenarios if only dissolved pesticides degrade: re-assessing the importance of soil water flow

    Science.gov (United States)

    Te Brake, B.; van der Zee, S. E. A. T. M.; Verhoef, A.

    2009-04-01

    Although the pesticide screening policies assume that both dissolved and adsorbed pesticides are subject to transformation (or degradation), it is debatable whether this assumption is correct. Instead, it has been proposed that only dissolved pesticides may degrade, in line with the consensus on other organic contaminants for which only the dissolved or easily accessible fractions are biodegradable. If only dissolved pesticide fractions can degrade, this has major impacts on the pesticide risk assessment in the EU, which so far assumes all pesticide can degrade, whatever their chemical forms. In particular, if only dissolved pesticide degrades, the sorption process becomes completely irrelevant for the long term leached fraction: both regarding its (non)equilibrium and its (non)linearity assumptions. If sorption as such becomes less important, other processes should become more important for the leached fraction, and water flow as the major driving force is a logical candidate. Indeed, the rate of leaching can be shown to depend significantly on the net precipitation, with some prominent adjustments, if sorption becomes less dominant than in the current pesticide screening approaches. It will be shown that the celerity of leaching depends differently on the water flow, than does the leached fraction (which is crucial for pesticide admission policies). Therefore, a reconsideration of EU pesticide screening and admission policies may be necessary.

  16. A multi-criteria assessment of scenarios on thermal processing of infectious hospital wastes: a case study for Central Macedonia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karagiannidis, A; Papageorgiou, A; Perkoulidis, G; Sanida, G; Samaras, P

    2010-02-01

    In Greece more than 14,000 tonnes of infectious hospital waste are produced yearly; a significant part of it is still mismanaged. Only one off-site licensed incineration facility for hospital wastes is in operation, with the remaining of the market covered by various hydroclave and autoclave units, whereas numerous problems are still generally encountered regarding waste segregation, collection, transportation and management, as well as often excessive entailed costs. Everyday practices still include dumping the majority of solid hospital waste into household disposal sites and landfills after sterilization, still largely without any preceding recycling and separation steps. Discussed in the present paper are the implemented and future treatment practices of infectious hospital wastes in Central Macedonia; produced quantities are reviewed, actual treatment costs are addressed critically, whereas the overall situation in Greece is discussed. Moreover, thermal treatment processes that could be applied for the treatment of infectious hospital wastes in the region are assessed via the multi-criteria decision method Analytic Hierarchy Process. Furthermore, a sensitivity analysis was performed and the analysis demonstrated that a centralized autoclave or hydroclave plant near Thessaloniki is the best performing option, depending however on the selection and weighing of criteria of the multi-criteria process. Moreover the study found that a common treatment option for the treatment of all infectious hospital wastes produced in the Region of Central Macedonia, could offer cost and environmental benefits. In general the multi-criteria decision method, as well as the conclusions and remarks of this study can be used as a basis for future planning and anticipation of the needs for investments in the area of medical waste management.

  17. Natural infection with peste des petits ruminants virus: a pre and post vaccinal assessment following an outbreak scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abubakar, Muhammad; Arshed, Muhammad Javed; Zahur, Aamir Bin; Ali, Qurban; Banyard, Ashley C

    2012-07-01

    Peste des petits ruminants virus (PPRV) infection was confirmed in a herd of goats (n = 55) at an organised farm in Islamabad, Pakistan. PPRV infection was confirmed using both antigen- and antibody-based detection methods, haemagglutination (HA) tests and molecular methods. Animals that survived natural infection developed a typical serological response and virus antigen was detected in fecal matter. Following determination of serological response to infection animals were grouped and either vaccinated or left unvaccinated: group 1 animals succumbed to infection (n = 5) and samples were analysed for PPRV antigen; group 2 animals developed clinical disease (n = 10) and were divided into 2 groups, half being vaccinated (group 2a) whilst the remainder were unvaccinated (group 2b); group 3 (n = 15) animals included those that developed only very mild clinical disease or no clinical disease; group 4 animals (n = 5) were negative for clinical disease and were housed as a negative control group. A variable antibody response was detected following resolution of the initial outbreak. Excretion of virus antigen was assessed at different time points following vaccination. Importantly, animals that were vaccinated (group 2a) excreted antigen in fecal matter for 1 month following vaccination whilst unvaccinated animals (group 2b) continued to shed virus antigen for 2 months. The potential for virus excretion in fecal matter and effects of vaccination upon virus infection are discussed. We postulate that excretion in fecal material may represent a mechanism of virus transmission following natural infection and that this mechanism may demonstrate a potential method by which PPRV outbreaks occur spontaneously in areas not previously known to have circulating virus.

  18. Accuracy Assessment of Mobile Mapping Point Clouds Using the Existing Environment as Terrestrial Reference

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hofmann, S.; Brenner, C.

    2016-06-01

    Mobile mapping data is widely used in various applications, what makes it especially important for data users to get a statistically verified quality statement on the geometric accuracy of the acquired point clouds or its processed products. The accuracy of point clouds can be divided into an absolute and a relative quality, where the absolute quality describes the position of the point cloud in a world coordinate system such as WGS84 or UTM, whereas the relative accuracy describes the accuracy within the point cloud itself. Furthermore, the quality of processed products such as segmented features depends on the global accuracy of the point cloud but mainly on the quality of the processing steps. Several data sources with different characteristics and quality can be thought of as potential reference data, such as cadastral maps, orthophoto, artificial control objects or terrestrial surveys using a total station. In this work a test field in a selected residential area was acquired as reference data in a terrestrial survey using a total station. In order to reach high accuracy the stationing of the total station was based on a newly made geodetic network with a local accuracy of less than 3 mm. The global position of the network was determined using a long time GNSS survey reaching an accuracy of 8 mm. Based on this geodetic network a 3D test field with facades and street profiles was measured with a total station, each point with a two-dimensional position and altitude. In addition, the surface of poles of street lights, traffic signs and trees was acquired using the scanning mode of the total station. Comparing this reference data to the acquired mobile mapping point clouds of several measurement campaigns a detailed quality statement on the accuracy of the point cloud data is made. Additionally, the advantages and disadvantages of the described reference data source concerning availability, cost, accuracy and applicability are discussed.

  19. Future projection of Indian summer monsoon variability under climate change scenario: An assessment from CMIP5 climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharmila, S.; Joseph, S.; Sahai, A. K.; Abhilash, S.; Chattopadhyay, R.

    2015-01-01

    In this study, the impact of enhanced anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions on the possible future changes in different aspects of daily-to-interannual variability of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) is systematically assessed using 20 coupled models participated in the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5. The historical (1951-1999) and future (2051-2099) simulations under the strongest Representative Concentration Pathway have been analyzed for this purpose. A few reliable models are selected based on their competence in simulating the basic features of present-climate ISM variability. The robust and consistent projections across the selected models suggest substantial changes in the ISM variability by the end of 21st century indicating strong sensitivity of ISM to global warming. On the seasonal scale, the all-India summer monsoon mean rainfall is likely to increase moderately in future, primarily governed by enhanced thermodynamic conditions due to atmospheric warming, but slightly offset by weakened large scale monsoon circulation. It is projected that the rainfall magnitude will increase over core monsoon zone in future climate, along with lengthening of the season due to late withdrawal. On interannual timescales, it is speculated that severity and frequency of both strong monsoon (SM) and weak monsoon (WM) might increase noticeably in future climate. Substantial changes in the daily variability of ISM are also projected, which are largely associated with the increase in heavy rainfall events and decrease in both low rain-rate and number of wet days during future monsoon. On the subseasonal scale, the model projections depict considerable amplification of higher frequency (below 30 day mode) components; although the dominant northward propagating 30-70 day mode of monsoon intraseasonal oscillations may not change appreciably in a warmer climate. It is speculated that the enhanced high frequency mode of monsoon ISOs due to increased GHG induced warming

  20. Ecobiological assessment of a freshwater lake at Schirmacher Oasis, East Antarctica, with reference to human activities

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Ingole, B.S.; Dhargalkar, V.K.

    The scale and magnitude of probable impact of human activities over a decade (1983-1994) on the freshwater lake Priyadarshini, at Schirmacher Oasis, East Antarctica, was assessed through an ecological study conducted over an annual cycle during...

  1. Environmental Impact Assessment and Sustainable Agricultural Development--With Special Reference to Kenya.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiragu, Consolater Wambuku; Goode, Pamela M.

    1990-01-01

    The concept of sustainable agriculture from the perspective of development in Kenya is discussed. The steps in an Environmental Impact Assessment which takes into account the physical, cultural, social, and ecological aspects of the problem are presented. (CW)

  2. Coffee Beverage Quality Assessment Based on ETA/CPTEC-HadCM3 Model (A1B-IPCC/SRES Scenario), Southeastern Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giarolla, A.; Resende, N.; Chou, S. C.; Tavares, P. S.; Rodrigues, D. C.

    2012-04-01

    Environmental factors influence the coffee beverage quality and air temperature has a significant importance in this process. The grain maturation occurs very quickly in regions that present high temperatures and sometimes there is not enough time to complete all this phase adequately. In the other hand, with mild temperatures, the grain maturation occurs more slowly and it promotes a better quality beverage. The aim of this study was to assess the coffee beverage quality in the southeastern Brazil, based on climate projections using the Eta-CPTEC regional model driven by four members of an ensemble of the Met Office Hadley Centre Global Coupled climate model (HadCM3). The global model ensemble was run over the 21st century according to IPCC SRES, A1B emissions scenario. Each ensemble member presented different climate sensitivity in the analysis. The Eta-CPTEC-HadCM3 model was configured with a 40-km grid size and was run over the period of 1961-90 to represent a baseline climate, and over the period of 2011-2100 to simulate possible future changes and the effects on the coffee beverage quality. A coffee beverage quality classification, which depends on the annual air temperature proposed by Bressani (2007) and also, a quality coffee beverage sensory classification, based on Camargo and Cortez (1998) were considered in this study. An evaluation of the systematic errors (BIAS) for each member for the period from 1961 to 1990 was made. The results presented by Eta/CPTEC-HadCM3 model indicated that in the case of an occurrence of A1B emission scenario, the coffee beverage quality could be affected in this region due to the fact that the flavor may become stronger and unpleasant caused by rising air temperatures. The BIAS evaluation and subsequent errors removal demonstrated improvement in the scenarios simulations. A short review concerning agronomic techniques to mitigate extreme meteorological events or global warming on coffee crop based on Camargo (2010) also is

  3. A stochastic dynamic model to assess land use change scenarios on the ecological status of fluvial water bodies under the Water Framework Directive.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hughes, Samantha Jane; Cabral, João Alexandre; Bastos, Rita; Cortes, Rui; Vicente, Joana; Eitelberg, David; Yu, Huirong; Honrado, João; Santos, Mário

    2016-09-15

    This method development paper outlines an integrative stochastic dynamic methodology (StDM) framework to anticipate land use (LU) change effects on the ecological status of monitored and non-monitored lotic surface waters under the Water Framework Directive (WFD). Tested in the Alto Minho River Basin District in North West Portugal, the model is an innovative step towards developing a decision-making and planning tool to assess the influence impacts such as LU change and climate change on these complex systems. Comprising a series of sequential steps, a Generalized Linear Model based, competing model Multi Model Inference (MMI) approach was used for parameter estimation to identify principal land use types (distal factors) driving change in biological and physicochemical support elements (proximal factors) in monitored water bodies. The framework integrated MMI constants and coefficients of selected LU categories in the StDM simulations and spatial projections to simulate the ecological status of monitored and non-monitored lotic waterbodies in the test area under 2 scenarios of (1) LU intensification and (2) LU extensification. A total of 100 simulations were run for a 50year period for each scenario. Spatially dynamic projections of WFD metrics were obtained, taking into account the occurrence of stochastic wildfire events which typically occur in the study region and are exacerbated by LU change. A marked projected decline to "Moderate" ecological status for most waterbodies was detected under intensification but little change under extensification; only a few waterbodies fell to "moderate" status. The latter scenario describes the actual regional socio-economic situation of agricultural abandonment due to rural poverty, partly explaining the projected lack of change in ecological status. Based on the WFD "one out all out" criterion, projected downward shifts in ecological status were due to physicochemical support elements, namely increased phosphorus levels

  4. Assessment of genetic diversity in the sorghum reference set using EST-SSR markers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramu, P; Billot, C; Rami, J-F; Senthilvel, S; Upadhyaya, H D; Ananda Reddy, L; Hash, C T

    2013-08-01

    Selection and use of genetically diverse genotypes are key factors in any crop breeding program to develop cultivars with a broad genetic base. Molecular markers play a major role in selecting diverse genotypes. In the present study, a reference set representing a wide range of sorghum genetic diversity was screened with 40 EST-SSR markers to validate both the use of these markers for genetic structure analyses and the population structure of this set. Grouping of accessions is identical in distance-based and model-based clustering methods. Genotypes were grouped primarily based on race within the geographic origins. Accessions derived from the African continent contributed 88.6 % of alleles confirming the African origin of sorghum. In total, 360 alleles were detected in the reference set with an average of 9 alleles per marker. The average PIC value was 0.5230 with a range of 0.1379-0.9483. Sub-race, guinea margaritiferum (Gma) from West Africa formed a separate cluster in close proximity to wild accessions suggesting that the Gma group represents an independent domestication event. Guineas from India and Western Africa formed two distinct clusters. Accessions belongs to the kafir race formed the most homogeneous group as observed in earlier studies. This analysis suggests that the EST-SSR markers used in the present study have greater discriminating power than the genomic SSRs. Genetic variance within the subpopulations was very high (71.7 %) suggesting that the germplasm lines included in the set are more diverse. Thus, this reference set representing the global germplasm is an ideal material for the breeding community, serving as a community resource for trait-specific allele mining as well as genome-wide association mapping.

  5. An Independent Assessment of Evacuation Time Estimates for A Peak Population Scenario in the Emergency Planning Zone of the Seabrook Nuclear Power Station

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moeller, M. P.; Urbanik, II, T.; Mclean, M. A.; Desrosiers, A. E.

    1982-11-01

    This study comprises two major tasks. First, it includes an independent assessment of the methods and assumptions used in calculating evacuation time estimates (ETEs) applicable to the general population for a peak population scenario in the emergency planning zone {EPZ) of the Seabrook Nuclear Power Station. This consists of a review and analysis of previous work by Public Service of New Hampshire {PSNH) and the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), as well as an independent calculation of evacuation times using the CLEAR model for the demographic data reported by PSNH. Secondly, this study includes independent estimations of evacuation time for the peak population scenario developed using demographic data prepared by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission {NRC). These evacuation time estimates are approximately 60% and 84% greater, respectively, than the estimate provided by PSNH for a simulataneous evacuation of the entire EPZ under peak conditions. The CLEAR model, which was developed by Pacific Northwest Laboratory {PNL) under the sponsorship of the. NRC, was also used for these latter calculations. The results of this study reveal the importance of the assumptions used for calculating evacuation times. Because traffic routings and management plans have not been prepared for the area, the CLEAR calculations utilized indepdently prepared traffic routings and assumptions. A detailed analysis of the results suggests that the ETEs submitted by PSNH are consistent with the methods and assumptions which provide the bases for PSNH•s evacuation time estimates. Differences among evacuation time estimates stem largely from differences jn the assumed size of the evacuating population and the estimated effectiveness of traffic controls.

  6. Risk factor scenario in an industrial set-up: Need for an effective screening tool to assess the high-risk group

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iyer Uma

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Industrial and technological revolution has resulted in nutrition transition. This calls for analyzing the risk factor scenario in the industrial population. Objective: The objective was to map the prevalence and assess the risk factors of industrial employees. Materials and Methods: The employees of a large petrochemical industry were enrolled (N=269 for the study. Risk factors were elicited through a structured questionnaire. Parameters monitored were fasting blood sugar and lipid profile. Relative risk was calculated to find out significant predictor variables. Results: The employees had high prevalence of overweight (27%, obesity (22%, central obesity (48.7%, prehypertension (43.2%, hypertension (36.6%, and dyslipidemia (41.4%. They had erroneous dietary habits such as low intake of fruits and vegetables and high fat intake. Most of the employees had low physical activity levels. The prevalence of smoking (13.5%, tobacco (28.2%, and alcohol use (22.2% were also high with 15.1% having multiple habits. One-fifth of the employees had metabolic syndrome (MS. Seven predictor variables, namely, family history, BMI, WHR, blood pressure, physical inactivity, TG, and TG/H were identified and used to develop the risk score card to identify people at high risk of CVD and DM. Conclusion: Multiple risk factor scenario among the industrial population studied calls for effective intervention strategies and policy changes to combat the burden of non-communicable diseases. The risk score card can be used to screen the high-risk group in the industrial population.

  7. An audit of competency assessments on court-referred rape survivors in South Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pillay, Anthony L

    2008-12-01

    This report concerns rape survivors with mental retardation referred by the courts for evaluation of their competencies to (i) provide testimony in court and (ii) consent to sexual intercourse. Being a relatively new area of work in South Africa, it seems important to document findings to (i) examine the challenges facing such rape survivors, (ii) inform quality improvement in this forensic mental health task, and (iii) inform and support advocacy programmes for this vulnerable group. Of 106 rape survivors referred by courts over a 3-yr. period, 91.5% were females, 21.7% were under 16 years of age, and over two-thirds were from rural communities. In 77.4% of the cases the alleged perpetrators were people they had previously seen in the community but had not befriended. Almost 80% were classified as showing Moderate or Severe Mental Retardation, and over 90% were able to testify. However, almost two-thirds were not able to make an informed decision to consent to sexual intercourse.

  8. Accuracy of ELISA detection methods for gluten and reference materials: a realistic assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diaz-Amigo, Carmen; Popping, Bert

    2013-06-19

    The determination of prolamins by ELISA and subsequent conversion of the resulting concentration to gluten content in food appears to be a comparatively simple and straightforward process with which many laboratories have years-long experience. At the end of the process, a value of gluten, expressed in mg/kg or ppm, is obtained. This value often is the basis for the decision if a product can be labeled gluten-free or not. On the basis of currently available scientific information, the accuracy of the obtained values with commonly used commercial ELISA kits has to be questioned. Although recently several multilaboratory studies have been conducted in an attempt to emphasize and ensure the accuracy of the results, data suggest that it was the precision of these assays, not the accuracy, that was confirmed because some of the underlying assumptions for calculating the gluten content lack scientific data support as well as appropriate reference materials for comparison. This paper discusses the issues of gluten determination and quantification with respect to antibody specificity, extraction procedures, reference materials, and their commutability.

  9. Reduced-Reference Quality Assessment Based on the Entropy of DWT Coefficients of Locally Weighted Gradient Magnitudes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Golestaneh, S Alireza; Karam, Lina

    2016-08-24

    Perceptual image quality assessment (IQA) attempts to use computational models to estimate the image quality in accordance with subjective evaluations. Reduced-reference (RR) image quality assessment (IQA) methods make use of partial information or features extracted from the reference image for estimating the quality of distorted images. Finding a balance between the number of RR features and accuracy of the estimated image quality is essential and important in IQA. In this paper we propose a training-free low-cost RRIQA method that requires a very small number of RR features (6 RR features). The proposed RRIQA algorithm is based on the discrete wavelet transform (DWT) of locally weighted gradient magnitudes.We apply human visual system's contrast sensitivity and neighborhood gradient information to weight the gradient magnitudes in a locally adaptive manner. The RR features are computed by measuring the entropy of each DWT subband, for each scale, and pooling the subband entropies along all orientations, resulting in L RR features (one average entropy per scale) for an L-level DWT. Extensive experiments performed on seven large-scale benchmark databases demonstrate that the proposed RRIQA method delivers highly competitive performance as compared to the state-of-the-art RRIQA models as well as full reference ones for both natural and texture images. The MATLAB source code of REDLOG and the evaluation results are publicly available online at https://http://lab.engineering.asu.edu/ivulab/software/redlog/.

  10. Policy relevance of three integrated assessment tools - A comparison with specific reference to agricultural policies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Uthes, S.; Fricke, K.; Konig, H.; Zander, P.; Ittersum, van M.K.; Sieber, S.; Helming, K.; Piorr, A.; Muller, K.

    2010-01-01

    The Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), a system of market support instruments, direct income transfers, and rural development measures, has been put through an ongoing reform process in recent decades. This paper introduces three policy impact assessment tools (SIAT, SEAMLESS-IF, MEA-Scope tool) and

  11. Assessment of Ganga river ecosystem at Haridwar, Uttarakhand, India with reference to water quality indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhutiani, R.; Khanna, D. R.; Kulkarni, Dipali Bhaskar; Ruhela, Mukesh

    2016-06-01

    The river Ganges is regarded as one of the most holy and sacred rivers of the world from time immemorial. The evaluation of river water quality is a critical element in the assessment of water resources. The quality/potability of water that is consumed defines the base line of protection against many diseases and infections. The present study aimed to calculate Water Quality Index (WQI) by the analysis of sixteen physico-chemical parameters on the basis of River Ganga index of Ved Prakash, weighted arithmetic index and WQI by National sanitation foundation (NSF) to assess the suitability of water for drinking, irrigation purposes and other human uses. These three water quality indices have been used to assess variation in the quality of the River Ganga at monitored locations over an 11-year period. Application of three different indexes to assess the water quality over a period of 11 years shows minor variations in water quality. Index values as per River Ganga Index by Ved Prakash et al. from 2000 to 2010 ranged between medium to good, Index values as per NSF Index for years 2000-2010 indicate good water quality, while Index values as per the weighted arithmetic index method for the study period indicate poor water quality.

  12. Reference genome-independent assessment of mutation density using restriction enzyme-phased sequencing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Monson-Miller Jennifer

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The availability of low cost sequencing has spurred its application to discovery and typing of variation, including variation induced by mutagenesis. Mutation discovery is challenging as it requires a substantial amount of sequencing and analysis to detect very rare changes and distinguish them from noise. Also challenging are the cases when the organism of interest has not been sequenced or is highly divergent from the reference. Results We describe the development of a simple method for reduced representation sequencing. Input DNA was digested with a single restriction enzyme and ligated to Y adapters modified to contain a sequence barcode and to provide a compatible overhang for ligation. We demonstrated the efficiency of this method at SNP discovery using rice and arabidopsis. To test its suitability for the discovery of very rare SNP, one control and three mutagenized rice individuals (1, 5 and 10 mM sodium azide were used to prepare genomic libraries for Illumina sequencers by ligating barcoded adapters to NlaIII restriction sites. For genome-dependent discovery 15-30 million of 80 base reads per individual were aligned to the reference sequence achieving individual sequencing coverage from 7 to 15×. We identified high-confidence base changes by comparing sequences across individuals and identified instances consistent with mutations, i.e. changes that were found in a single treated individual and were solely GC to AT transitions. For genome-independent discovery 70-mers were extracted from the sequence of the control individual and single-copy sequence was identified by comparing the 70-mers across samples to evaluate copy number and variation. This de novo "genome" was used to align the reads and identify mutations as above. Covering approximately 1/5 of the 380 Mb genome of rice we detected mutation densities ranging from 0.6 to 4 per Mb of diploid DNA depending on the mutagenic treatment. Conclusions The

  13. Toxicity reference values for chlorophacinone and their application for assessing anticoagulant rodenticide risk to raptors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rattner, Barnett A.; Horak, Katherine E.; Lazarus, Rebecca; Schultz, Sandra; Knowles, Susan N.; Abbo, B.G.; Volker, Steven F.

    2015-01-01

    Despite widespread use and benefit, there are growing concerns regarding hazards of second-generation anticoagulant rodenticides to non-target wildlife which may result in expanded use of first-generation compounds, including chlorophacinone (CPN). The toxicity of CPN over a 7-day exposure period was investigated in American kestrels (Falco sparverius) fed either rat tissue mechanically-amended with CPN, tissue from rats fed Rozol® bait (biologically-incorporated CPN), or control diets (tissue from untreated rats or commercial bird of prey diet) ad libitum. Nominal CPN concentrations in the formulated diets were 0.15, 0.75 and 1.5 µg/g food wet weight, and measured concentrations averaged 94 % of target values. Kestrel food consumption was similar among groups and body weight varied by less than 6 %. Overt signs of intoxication, liver CPN residues, and changes in prothrombin time (PT), Russell’s viper venom time (RVVT) and hematocrit, were generally dose-dependent. Histological evidence of hemorrhage was present at all CPN dose levels, and most frequently observed in pectoral muscle and heart. There were no apparent differences in toxicity between mechanically-amended and biologically-incorporated CPN diet formulations. Dietary-based toxicity reference values at which clotting times were prolonged in 50 % of the kestrels were 79.2 µg CPN consumed/kg body weight-day for PT and 39.1 µg/kg body weight-day for RVVT. Based upon daily food consumption of kestrels and previously reported CPN concentrations found in small mammals following field baiting trials, these toxicity reference values might be exceeded by free-ranging raptors consuming such exposed prey. Tissue-based toxicity reference values for coagulopathy in 50 % of exposed birds were 0.107 µg CPN/g liver wet weight for PT and 0.076 µg/g liver for RVVT, and are below the range of residue levels reported in raptor mortality incidents attributed to CPN exposure. Sublethal responses associated

  14. Water Resources Status and Availability Assessment in Current and Future Climate Change Scenarios for Beas River Basin of North Western Himalaya

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aggarwal, S. P.; Thakur, P. K.; Garg, V.; Nikam, B. R.; Chouksey, A.; Dhote, P.; Bhattacharya, T.

    2016-10-01

    The water resources status and availability of any river basin is of primary importance for overall and sustainable development of any river basin. This study has been done in Beas river basin which is located in North Western Himalaya for assessing the status of water resources in present and future climate change scenarios. In this study hydrological modelling approach has been used for quantifying the water balance components of Beas river basin upto Pandoh. The variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model has been used in energy balance mode for Beas river basin at 1km grid scale. The VIC model has been run with snow elevation zones files to simulate the snow module of VIC. The model was run with National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) forcing data (Tmax, Tmin, Rainfall and wind speed at 0.5degree resolution) from 1 Jan. 1999 to 31 Dec 2006 for calibration purpose. The additional component of glacier melt was added into overall river runoff using semi-empirical approach utilizing air temperature and glacier type and extent data. The ground water component is computed from overall recharge of ground water by water balance approach. The overall water balance approach is validated with river discharge data provided by Bhakra Beas Management Board (BBMB) from 1994-2014. VIC routing module was used to assess pixel wise flow availability at daily, monthly and annual time scales. The mean monthly flow at Pandoh during study period varied from 19 - 1581 m3/s from VIC and 50 to 1556 m3/sec from observation data, with minimum water flow occurring in month of January and maximum flow in month of August with annual R2 of 0.68. The future climate change data is taken from CORDEX database. The climate model of NOAA-GFDL-ESM2M for IPCC RCP scenario 4.5 and 8.5 were used for South Asia at 0.44 deg. grid from year 2006 to 2100. The climate forcing data for VIC model was prepared using daily maximum and minimum near surface air temperature, daily precipitation and

  15. Dose Assessment in Computed Tomography Examination and Establishment of Local Diagnostic Reference Levels in Mazandaran, Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Janbabanezhad Toori A.

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Background: Medical X-rays are the largest man-made source of public exposure to ionizing radiation. While the benefits of Computed Tomography (CT are well known in accurate diagnosis, those benefits are not risk-free. CT is a device with higher patient dose in comparison with other conventional radiation procedures. Objective: This study is aimed at evaluating radiation dose to patients from Computed Tomography (CT examination in Mazandaran hospitals and defining diagnostic reference level (DRL. Methods: Patient-related data on CT protocol for four common CT examinations including brain, sinus, chest and abdomen & pelvic were collected. In each center, Computed Tomography Dose Index (CTDI measurements were performed using pencil ionization chamber and CT dosimetry phantom according to AAPM report No. 96 for those techniques. Then, Weighted Computed Tomography Dose Index (CTDIW, Volume Computed Tomography Dose Index (CTDI vol and Dose Length Product (DLP were calculated. Results: The CTDIw for brain, sinus, chest and abdomen & pelvic ranged (15.6- 73, (3.8-25. 8, (4.5-16.3 and (7-16.3, respectively. Values of DLP had a range of (197.4-981, (41.8-184, (131-342.3 and (283.6-486 for brain, sinus, chest and abdomen & pelvic, respectively. The 3rd quartile of CTDIW, derived from dose distribution for each examination is the proposed quantity for DRL. The DRLs of brain, sinus, chest and abdomen & pelvic are measured 59.5, 17, 7.8 and 11 mGy, respectively. Conclusion: Results of this study demonstrated large scales of dose for the same examination among different centers. For all examinations, our values were lower than international reference doses.

  16. An eco-hydrological modeling framework for assessing trade-offs among ecosystem services in response to alternative land use scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mckane, R.; Abdelnour, A. G.; Brookes, A.; Djang, K.; Stieglitz, M.; Pan, F.; Bolte, J.; Papenfus, M.; Burdick, C.

    2012-12-01

    Scientists, policymakers, community planners and others have discussed ecosystem services for decades, however, society is still in the early stages of developing methodologies to quantify and value the services that ecosystems provide. For example, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency recently established the Sustainable and Healthy Communities Research Program to develop such methodologies, so that natural capital can be better accounted for in decisions that affect the supply of the ecosystem goods and services upon which human well-being depends. Essential to this goal are highly integrated models that can be used to define policy and management strategies for entire ecosystems, not simply individual components of the ecosystem. We developed the VELMA (Visualizing Ecosystems for Land Management Assessments) eco-hydrologic modeling framework to help address this emerging risk assessment objective. Here we describe a proof-of-concept application of VELMA to the H.J. Andrews Experimental Forest, a forested 64 km2 basin and Long Term Ecological Research site in the western Cascade Range of Oregon, USA. VELMA is a spatially-distributed eco-hydrologic model that links a land surface hydrologic model with a terrestrial biogeochemistry model for simulating the integrated responses of vegetation, soil, and water resources to interacting stressors. We used the model to simulate the effects of three different land use scenarios (100% old-growth, 100% clearcut harvest, and present-day land cover consisting of 45% old-growth and 55% harvested) on trade-offs among five ecosystem services: timber production, carbon sequestration, greenhouse gas regulation, water quantity, and water quality. Compared to the old-growth simulation, over a 60-yr period the clearcut simulation reduced total ecosystem carbon stocks (-40%), and initially increased total stream discharge (+28%), stream nitrogen export (>300%), and total CO2 and N2O radiative forcing (>200%). The simulation for

  17. Assessment of the thermal and dynamic reaction scenarios of different permafrost typologies in the European Alps: A PermaNET initiative

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kellerer-Pirklbauer, A.

    2009-04-01

    High altitude and high latitude regions are generally recognized as being particularly sensitive to the effects of the ongoing climate change. A large part of permafrost in the European Alps for instance is at or close to melting conditions and is therefore very sensitive to degradation caused by atmospheric warming. Knowledge regarding permafrost distribution and its climatologically driven dynamics in the entire European Alps is still far from being complete. The new European Union co-funded project "PermaNET - Permafrost long-term monitoring network" (launched in July 2008) attempts to close some of these major gaps in permafrost knowledge (www.permanet-alpinespace.eu). One work package of PermaNET focuses on the assessment of the relationship between permafrost and climate change. In it, one action is concerned with the assessment of the thermal and dynamic reaction scenarios of different permafrost typologies in the European Alps. Research in this action is focussing on the relationship between measured climate data and observed permafrost reaction using available datasets collected during the last decades in the European Alps. Such datasets include ground temperature measurements (at the surface and in boreholes), rock glacier displacements or observations on mass movement events that were initiated in permafrost environments (e.g. rock falls). These established relationships in combination with calculated data from climate scenario modelling will form the basis for model simulations and estimations regarding changes in permafrost distribution (vertically and horizontally), in the active layer thickness, in the rates of rock glacier displacement, etc. Study sites for this action are located in Austria (Mt. Sonnblick, Central Schober Mountains, Dösen Valley, Mt. Hochreichart, Schrank Cirque), in Italy (Cime Bianche Pass, Matterhorn SW ridge, Valtournenche, Aosta Valley Region, Val di Genova and Val d'Amola in the Adamello-Presanella Group), in Switzerland

  18. VALIDITY OF TWO CLINICAL KNEE STRENGTH ASSESSMENTS COMPARED TO THE REFERENCE STANDARD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Philipp Weng

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Objectives: Patello femoral Pain (PFP is the most common lower limb condition encountered in clinical practice. It recently emerged as the third highest ranked topic out of 185 in the Chartered Society of Physiotherapy Musculoskeletal Research Priority Project. For a valid assessment of knee strength during rehabilitation, the isometric test using the isokinetic dynamometer (Cybex and the hand-held dynamometer (HHD is not well received with clinical practice. An alternative way is through functional hop tests which clinicians have used to assess their patients' lower extremity muscular strength. This study investigates the validity of knee strength assessments conducted with the HHD and the hoptest compared to the isokinetic dynamometer and also explores differences between genders of the three assessments. Design: Each assessment included one submaximal and three recorded maximal efforts of the dominant leg. Quadriceps muscle strength was displayed in normalized torques. Correlation coefficients and box-and-whisker plots was used to analyze the data. Setting: Movement analysis laboratory Participants: Sixteen males (age 23.5 ± 4.23 years, height 1.79 ± 0.08 m and body mass 76.21 ± 10.58 kg, BMI 23.82 ± 2.38 kg/m² and 16 females (age 25.38 ± 5.49 years, height 1.67 ± 0.08 m and body mass 71.99 ± 16.05 kg, BMI 25.83 ± 4.74 kg/m² between 18 and 40 years old without any musculoskeletal injuries participated. Main outcome measures: Knee moments normalized for bodyweight (Nm/kg for dynamometers and distance jumped for single legged hoptest. Results: The strongest significant correlation was found for the comparison between the HHD and Cybex (r=0.71, r²=0.504, p=0.001. Correlation between the HHD and hoptest (r=0.4, r²=0.19, p=0.013, and Cybex and hoptest (r=0.53, r²=0.295, p=0.001 were poor. Comparing genders, the normalized knee extension moment on the Cybex was 28.8% lower and with the HHD 22.3% lower for females. Conclusions: Single

  19. Relationship Between Cognitive Assessment and Balance Measures in Adolescents Referred for Vestibular Physical Therapy After Concussion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alsalaheen, Bara A.; Whitney, Susan L.; Marchetti, Gregory F.; Furman, Joseph M.; Kontos, Anthony P.; Collins, Michael W.; Sparto, Patrick J.

    2016-01-01

    Objective To examine the relationship between cognitive and balance performance in adolescents with concussion. Design Retrospective case series. Setting Tertiary. Patients Sixty patients. Interventions Correlation analyses were performed to describe the relationship between symptoms, cognitive measure, and balance measure at the time of initiation of vestibular physical therapy. Main Outcome Measures Cognitive performance was assessed using the Immediate Post-concussion Assessment and Cognitive Testing (ImPACT). The dizziness and balance function measures included dizziness severity rating, Activities-specific Balance Confidence scale (ABC), Dizziness Handicap Inventory (DHI), Functional Gait Assessment, gait speed, Timed “UP and GO,” Five Times Sit to Stand, and Sensory Organization Test (SOT). To account for multiple comparisons, the False Discovery Rate method was used. Results Performance measures of balance were significantly correlated with cognitive measures. Greater total symptom scores were related to greater impairment in the ABC and DHI (r = 0.35-0.39, P ≤ 0.008) and worse performance in condition 2 of the SOT (r = −0.48, P = 0.004). Among the ImPACT composite scores, lower memory scores were correlated with impaired balance performance measures (r = 0.37-0.59, P ≤ 0.012). Lower visual memory was also correlated with worse ABC scores. Conclusions The significant relationships reported between the cognitive performance scores and balance measures may reflect that similar levels of functioning exist across domains in individuals with protracted recovery who receive vestibular physical therapy. PMID:25706663

  20. The importance of assessing for abuse and neglect in children with chronic health conditions referred for neuropsychological evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olson, Katie; Jacobson, Kristin K

    2014-01-01

    Chronic childhood illnesses have been demonstrated to negatively impact family functioning by introducing new or additive stress on all members of the family system, as well as by increasing financial burden and social isolation. Although these factors have not necessarily been shown to have a direct causal effect on increased rates of abuse in children with chronic illnesses, these children have nonetheless been demonstrated to be at greater risk for neglect and physical and sexual abuse. Children with chronic health care needs are increasingly likely to be referred for neuropsychological evaluation. Thorough assessment of maltreatment would be a valuable addition to all neuropsychological evaluations of children presenting with chronic health conditions.

  1. The impact of stigma, experience, and group referent on HIV risk assessments and HIV testing intentions in Namibia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Rachel A; Morrison, Daniel

    2006-11-01

    People often perceive risks for others and themselves differently. This study examines whether personal beliefs about HIV and experience with those living with HIV influence personal risk assessments of contracting HIV in an interview sample of northern Namibians (N=400), but not others' assessments as explained by singular-distribution theory [Klar, Medding, & Sarel (1996). Nonunique invulnerability: Singular versus distributional probabilities and unrealistic optimism in comparative risk judgments. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 67, 229-245]. Findings indicate that personal risk perceptions decrease with more HIV stigmatizing beliefs and increase with greater experience, but that those characteristics had no impact on assessments for others' risk. The study also examines whether the size and characteristics of the referent group, peers and the general Namibian population, influence others' risk assessments. Optimistic biases for personal risk versus others' risk appear with the highest discrepancy emerging between personal and general population risk assessments. Further, we found that personal risk perceptions did not mediate the relationship between personal characteristics, beliefs and experiences, and intentions to seek HIV testing.

  2. Worldwide assessment of the Penman-Monteith temperature approach for the estimation of monthly reference evapotranspiration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almorox, Javier; Senatore, Alfonso; Quej, Victor H.; Mendicino, Giuseppe

    2016-11-01

    When not all the meteorological data needed for estimating reference evapotranspiration ETo are available, a Penman-Monteith temperature (PMT) equation can be adopted using only measured maximum and minimum air temperature data. The performance of the PMT method is evaluated and compared with the Hargreaves-Samani (HS) equation using the measured long-term monthly data of the FAO global climatic dataset New LocClim. The objective is to evaluate the quality of the PMT method for different climates as represented by the Köppen classification calculated on a monthly time scale. Estimated PMT and HS values are compared with FAO-56 Penman-Monteith ETo values through several statistical performance indices. For the full dataset, the approximated PMT expressions using air temperature alone produce better results than the uncalibrated HS method, and the performance of the PMT method is even more improved adopting corrections depending on the climate class for the estimation of the solar radiation, especially in the tropical climate class.

  3. Referring Quality Assessment of Primary Health Care for Endocrinology in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monteiro Grendene, Gabriela; Szczecinski Rodrigues, Átila; Katz, Natan; Harzheim, Erno

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents results of an assessment of the quality research of endocrinology referrals in the public health system in the state of Rio Grande do Sul. From the analysis of 4,458 requests for endocrinology referrals, it was found that 15% of referrals had insufficient information for evaluation and 71% showed no clinical justification for authorization of referencing. The partial results of the study indicated that the lack of information makes it impossible to clinically regulate these requests. The use of referencing protocols associated with telemedicine tools can assist doctors in primary health care in the clinical management and make access to specialized services more equitable and timely.

  4. NEC-2020 emission reduction scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Slentø, Erik; Nielsen, Ole-Kenneth; Hoffmann, Leif

    The upcoming NEC-2020 EU directive sets up emission ceilings for NOX, SO2, NH3, NMVOC and PM in order to meet the environmental exposure targets of the Thematic Strategy. This report contains an assessment of intermediary emission reduction scenarios for Denmark, computed by the GAINS model 2007......, which serves as the basis for the pending negotiations in EU. The assessment is brought up to date by including a brief evaluation of the new reduction scenarios published in 2008, founding the European Commission NEC-2020 directive proposal....

  5. No-Reference Image Quality Assessment for ZY3 Imagery in Urban Areas Using Statistical Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Y.; Cui, W. H.; Yang, F.; Wu, Z. C.

    2016-06-01

    More and more high-spatial resolution satellite images are produced with the improvement of satellite technology. However, the quality of images is not always satisfactory for application. Due to the impact of complicated atmospheric conditions and complex radiation transmission process in imaging process the images often suffer deterioration. In order to assess the quality of remote sensing images over urban areas, we proposed a general purpose image quality assessment methods based on feature extraction and machine learning. We use two types of features in multi scales. One is from the shape of histogram the other is from the natural scene statistics based on Generalized Gaussian distribution (GGD). A 20-D feature vector for each scale is extracted and is assumed to capture the RS image quality degradation characteristics. We use SVM to learn to predict image quality scores from these features. In order to do the evaluation, we construct a median scale dataset for training and testing with subjects taking part in to give the human opinions of degraded images. We use ZY3 satellite images over Wuhan area (a city in China) to conduct experiments. Experimental results show the correlation of the predicted scores and the subjective perceptions.

  6. An assessment of the cause of the "Extension Discrepancy" with reference to the west Galicia margin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reston, Timothy; McDermott, Ken

    2013-04-01

    A common observation at rifted margins is that the amount of extension measurable from faulting is too little to explain the observed crustal thinning and subsidence. This is the "extension discrepancy". Several causes have been proposed, including depth-dependent stretching or thinning, sequential faulting, subseismic faulting and polyphase faulting. In this contribution we explore the different possibilities, with specific reference to the West Galicia margin. If we take the observations at face value, then it seems unavoidable that the upper crust must be stretched and thinned less than the middle and lower crust, however is it unclear where the displaced lower crust has gone as there is no inverse discrepancy. Furthermore, there is independent evidence against large-scale DDS from seismic velocities and from the occurrence of upper crustal, lower crustal and mantle rocks in close proximity at the deep margin. We thus reject DDS as a sole cause of the extension discrepancy, although recognise that small-scale local DDS associated with asymmetric faulting is expected. Such small-scale DDS is an inherent part of models of sequential faulting, but these do not predict an overall extension discrepancy, so cannot alone explain one. Subseismic faulting also alone seems inadequate as it cannot explain the extreme thinning observed at the deep margin. However, as subseismic faulting is a requirement of the fractal distribution of fault sizes and the limited resolution of the seismic method, it most certainly does contribute to the extension discrepancy. Polyphase faulting, in which the thinnest crust has been affected by more than one phase of faulting, resulting in complex and poorly imaged structural architecture, is both predicted at deep margins, and in combination with subseismic faulting, capable of explaining the extension discrepancy. We demonstrate that the west Galicia margin has undergone more than one phase of faults, that these faults cross-cut each other

  7. Ambient Air Quality Assessment With Particular Reference to Particulates in Western Part of Jharia Coalfield, India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gurdeep Singh

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available India is in the list of fastest growing countries of the world. India's energy needs are also increasing due to population and industrial growth for improving quality of living style. In India, coal is major input infrastructure industries for example Power plants, Steel plants and Cement industries. India’s 52% of primary energy is coal dependent1. 66% of India's power generation depends upon coal production1. Jharia Coalfield (JCF is falling in the Lower Gondwana Coalfields of India. The area of the JCF is about 450 km2. It is important for the major supply of precious coking coal required for steel plants in India. It is located in Dhanbad district of Jharkhand state of India, The latitude is 23° 39' to 23° 48' N and longitude is 86° 11' to 86° 27' E for the Jharia coalfield. Based on environmental parameters, all the 103 mines of BCCL have been grouped under 17 Clusters. A cluster consists of a group of mines with mine lease boundary lying in close vicinity and includes-Operating mines, Abandoned/ closed mines and proposed projects.The focused study area is in the western part of the Jharia coalfield is named as Cluster XV group of mines of BCCL consists of four mines, Kharkharee Colliery (UG, Dharmaband Colliery (UG, Madhuband Colliery (UG and Phularitand Colliery (UG .The present study was carried out with the objective to measure the ambient air quality of the study area with reference to particulate matter (SPM, PM10 & PM2.5. Ambient air monitoring results have shown that the observe air quality were found within the limit prescribed by MoEF / CPCB. It may due to Underground mines as there are pollution causing lesser activities involved in the UG mining process compared to opencast mining. Implementation of Master plan for Jharia coalfields for environmental management has also improve the air quality in the area10,11.

  8. Developing a CBA Methodology for the Scenario-Based Land-Use Impact Assessment of Proposed Rail Investments in the Leipzig Region

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ustaoglu, Eda; Williams, Brndan; Petrov, Laura Oana

    2012-01-01

    This paper develops a methodological approach to be utilised for the evaluation of transport-land-use impacts of rapid rail investments in the Leipzig Region with the potential for this approach to be used for other European regions. Various land development scenarios are generated from the MOLAND...... Model applications. The land-use scenarios considered in this research are a baseline scenario of dispersed development and an alternative scenario of more compact urban developments associated with potential rapid rail provisions in the Leipzig Region. The appraisal of transport-land-use relationships...... is subject to the use of economic indicators and can be evaluated based on alternative land development scenarios developed for the Leipzig Area. In this context, key elements of a Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) approach will be developed for the evaluation of potential costs of urban rail provisions with its...

  9. Assessment of spatiotemporal variations in the fluvial wash-load component in the 21st century with regard to GCM climate change scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mouri, Goro, E-mail: mouri@rainbow.iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp

    2015-11-15

    For stream water, in which a relationship exists between wash-load concentration and discharge, an estimate of fine-sediment delivery may be obtained from a traditional fluvial wash-load rating curve. Here, we demonstrate that the remaining wash-load material load can be estimated from a traditional empirical principle on a nationwide scale. The traditional technique was applied to stream water for the whole of Japan. Four typical GCMs were selected from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble to provide the driving fields for the following regional climate models to assess the wash-load component based on rating curves: the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC), the Meteorological Research Institute Atmospheric General Circulation Model (MRI-GCM), the Hadley Centre Global Environment Model (HadGEM) and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) climate model. The simulations consisted of an ensemble, including multiple physics configurations and different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), which was used to produce monthly datasets for the whole country of Japan. The impacts of future climate changes on fluvial wash load in Japanese stream water were based on the balance of changes in hydrological factors. The annual and seasonal variations of the fluvial wash load were assessed from the result of the ensemble analysis in consideration of the Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emission scenarios. The determined results for the amount of wash load increase range from approximately 20 to 110% in the 2040s, especially along part of the Pacific Ocean and the Sea of Japan regions. In the 2090s, the amount of wash load is projected to increase by more than 50% over the whole of Japan. The assessment indicates that seasonal variation is particularly important because the rainy and typhoon seasons, which include extreme events, are the dominant seasons. Because fluvial wash-load-component turbidity

  10. Long-range hazard assessment of volcanic ash dispersal for a Plinian eruptive scenario at Popocatépetl volcano (Mexico): implications for civil aviation safety

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonasia, Rosanna; Scaini, Chirara; Capra, Lucia; Nathenson, Manuel; Siebe, Claus; Arana-Salinas, Lilia; Folch, Arnau

    2013-01-01

    Popocatépetl is one of Mexico’s most active volcanoes threatening a densely populated area that includes Mexico City with more than 20 million inhabitants. The destructive potential of this volcano is demonstrated by its Late Pleistocene–Holocene eruptive activity, which has been characterized by recurrent Plinian eruptions of large magnitude, the last two of which destroyed human settlements in pre-Hispanic times. Popocatépetl’s reawakening in 1994 produced a crisis that culminated with the evacuation of two villages on the northeastern flank of the volcano. Shortly after, a monitoring system and a civil protection contingency plan based on a hazard zone map were implemented. The current volcanic hazards map considers the potential occurrence of different volcanic phenomena, including pyroclastic density currents and lahars. However, no quantitative assessment of the tephra hazard, especially related to atmospheric dispersal, has been performed. The presence of airborne volcanic ash at low and jet-cruise atmospheric levels compromises the safety of aircraft operations and forces re-routing of aircraft to prevent encounters with volcanic ash clouds. Given the high number of important airports in the surroundings of Popocatépetl volcano and considering the potential threat posed to civil aviation in Mexico and adjacent regions in case of a Plinian eruption, a hazard assessment for tephra dispersal is required. In this work, we present the first probabilistic tephra dispersal hazard assessment for Popocatépetl volcano. We compute probabilistic hazard maps for critical thresholds of airborne ash concentrations at different flight levels, corresponding to the situation defined in Europe during 2010, and still under discussion. Tephra dispersal mode is performed using the FALL3D numerical model. Probabilistic hazard maps are built for a Plinian eruptive scenario defined on the basis of geological field data for the “Ochre Pumice” Plinian eruption (4965 14C

  11. Risk assessment in poisoning with special reference to odollam and organophosphorous compounds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meenu M. Tergestina

    2016-08-01

    Results: The most commonly ingested poisons were odollam (26% and organophosphorous compounds (22%. The overall mortality was 22%. Mortality was highest in organophosphorus compounds (38% and odollam (33% compared to other causes. Hyperkalemia, low systolic blood pressure, consumption of poison in powder or paste form, delayed presentation, bradycardia and extensive chest signs correlated with mortality in odollam and organophosphorous compound poisoning. Conclusions: Poisoning with odollam or organophosphorous compounds is an increasingly common life threatening condition. Markers of mortality identified in this study were incorporated into a simple scale for assessment of risk, namely the PoPPER scale: potassium level >5.5 mE/L, systolic blood pressure <90 mmHg, paste/powder form of poison ingestion, extremely late presentation, rate of QRS <40/min or impending respiratory paralysis. [Int J Res Med Sci 2016; 4(8.000: 3172-3175

  12. Using Checklists to Assess Your Transition to Alternative Fuels: A Technical Reference

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Risch, C. E. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Santini, D. J. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Johnson, L. R. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)

    2016-12-01

    The Checklist for Transition to New Alternative Fuel(s) was published in September 2011 by Chuck Risch and Dan Santini. Many improvements, described below, have been incorporated into this current document, Checklists for Assessing the Transitions to New Highway Fuels.2 Further, the original authors and Larry Johnson, co-author of the current report, identified a need for a succinct version of the full report and prepared a brochure based on it to aid busy decisionmakers: Check It Out: Using Checklists to Assess Your Transition to Alternative Fuels.2 These checklists are tools for those stakeholders charged with determining a feasible alternative fuel or fuels for highway transportation systems of the future. The original had four major players whose needs had to be satisfied for a successful transition. The term “activist,” intended to encompass environmental and other special interests, was included in the “customers” category. Activists are customers of the government in the sense that they organize citizens to exert political pressure to regulate the design of vehicles, fuel infrastructure, and roadway networks. Many who evaluate alternative fuels view activists, particularly environmental activists, as a separate category. Further, “activist” has become a pejorative term to many people. Therefore, we have used the word “advocate” or “activist/advocate” instead. Thus, in this update we recognize that environmental and other activists/advocates have been--and will continue to be--a powerful force promoting change in the nature of the fuels that are used in transportation.

  13. Experimental validation of the buildings energy performance (PEC assessment methods with reference to occupied spaces heating

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristian PETCU

    2010-01-01

    provided by measurements and to those provided by the monthly calculation (NP 048-2006. The deviations of 1.45% and 2.2% respectively validate the hourly calculation model, as they actually have no physical significance. The report presents a phenomenological analysis of the building transfer functions synthesized as tev (τ, functions which attest their phenomenological objectivity in macro and hourly terms. The case studies completing the calculation models experimental validation emphasize unacceptably large differences between the results provided by the use of standardized calculation methods (Mc 001 / 2-2006 and SR EN 13790:2009 and those specific to the methods referred to in this report, experimentally validated.

  14. Selection and assessment of reference genes for quantitative PCR normalization in migratory locust Locusta migratoria (Orthoptera: Acrididae).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Qingpo; Li, Zhen; Cao, Jinjun; Zhang, Songdou; Zhang, Huaijiang; Wu, Xiaoyun; Zhang, Qingwen; Liu, Xiaoxia

    2014-01-01

    Locusta migratoria is a classic hemimetamorphosis insect and has caused widespread economic damage to crops as a migratory pest. Researches on the expression pattern of functional genes in L. migratoria have drawn focus in recent years, especially with the release of genome information. Real-time quantitative PCR is the most reproducible and sensitive approach for detecting transcript expression levels of target genes, but optimal internal standards are key factors for its accuracy and reliability. Therefore, it's necessary to provide a systematic stability assessment of internal control for well-performed tests of target gene expression profile. In this study, twelve candidate genes (Ach, Act, Cht2, EF1α, RPL32, Hsp70, Tub, RP49, SDH, GAPDH, 18S, and His) were analyzed with four statistical methods: the delta Ct approach, geNorm, Bestkeeper and NormFinder. The results from these analyses aimed to choose the best suitable reference gene across different experimental situations for gene profile study in L. migratoria. The result demonstrated that for different developmental stages, EF1α, Hsp70 and RPL32 exhibited the most stable expression status for all samples; EF1α and RPL32 were selected as the best reference genes for studies involving embryo and larvae stages, while SDH and RP49 were identified for adult stage. The best-ranked reference genes across different tissues are RPL32, Hsp70 and RP49. For abiotic treatments, the most appropriate genes we identified were as follows: Act and SDH for larvae subjected to different insecticides; RPL32 and Ach for larvae exposed to different temperature treatments; and Act and Ach for larvae suffering from starvation. The present report should facilitate future researches on gene expression in L. migratoria with accessibly optimal reference genes under different experimental contexts.

  15. Selection and assessment of reference genes for quantitative PCR normalization in migratory locust Locusta migratoria (Orthoptera: Acrididae.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qingpo Yang

    Full Text Available Locusta migratoria is a classic hemimetamorphosis insect and has caused widespread economic damage to crops as a migratory pest. Researches on the expression pattern of functional genes in L. migratoria have drawn focus in recent years, especially with the release of genome information. Real-time quantitative PCR is the most reproducible and sensitive approach for detecting transcript expression levels of target genes, but optimal internal standards are key factors for its accuracy and reliability. Therefore, it's necessary to provide a systematic stability assessment of internal control for well-performed tests of target gene expression profile. In this study, twelve candidate genes (Ach, Act, Cht2, EF1α, RPL32, Hsp70, Tub, RP49, SDH, GAPDH, 18S, and His were analyzed with four statistical methods: the delta Ct approach, geNorm, Bestkeeper and NormFinder. The results from these analyses aimed to choose the best suitable reference gene across different experimental situations for gene profile study in L. migratoria. The result demonstrated that for different developmental stages, EF1α, Hsp70 and RPL32 exhibited the most stable expression status for all samples; EF1α and RPL32 were selected as the best reference genes for studies involving embryo and larvae stages, while SDH and RP49 were identified for adult stage. The best-ranked reference genes across different tissues are RPL32, Hsp70 and RP49. For abiotic treatments, the most appropriate genes we identified were as follows: Act and SDH for larvae subjected to different insecticides; RPL32 and Ach for larvae exposed to different temperature treatments; and Act and Ach for larvae suffering from starvation. The present report should facilitate future researches on gene expression in L. migratoria with accessibly optimal reference genes under different experimental contexts.

  16. Proposal for the assessment of quantitative dermal exposure limits in occupational environments: Part 2. Feasibility study for application in an exposure scenario for MDA by two different dermal exposure sampling methods

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bos, P.M.J.; Brouwer, D.H.; Stevenson, H.; Hoogendoorn, L.; Boogaard, P.J.; Kort, W.L.A.M. de; Hemmen, J.J. van

    1998-01-01

    Objective. To evaluate two different techniques for assessing dermal exposure to 4,4'-methylene dianiline (MDA) in a field study. The results were used to test the applicability of a recently proposed quantitative dermal occupational exposure limit (DOEL) for MDA in a workplace scenario. Methods. Fo

  17. Columnar modelling of nucleation burst evolution in the convective boundary layer – first results from a feasibility study Part III: Preliminary results on physicochemical model performance using two "clean air mass" reference scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. Hellmuth

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available In Paper I of four papers, a revised columnar high-order model to investigate gas-aerosol-turbulence interactions in the convective boundary layer (CBL was proposed. In Paper II, the model capability to predict first-, second- and third-order moments of meteorological variables in the CBL was demonstrated using available observational data. In the present Paper III, the high-order modelling concept is extended to sulphur and ammonia chemistry as well as to aerosol dynamics. Based on the previous CBL simulation, a feasibility study is performed using two "clean air mass" scenarios with an emission source at the ground but low aerosol background concentration. Such scenarios synoptically correspond to the advection of fresh post-frontal air in an anthropogenically influenced region. The aim is to evaluate the time-height evolution of ultrafine condensation nuclei (UCNs and to elucidate the interactions between meteorological and physicochemical variables in a CBL column. The scenarios differ in the treatment of new particle formation (NPF, whereas homogeneous nucleation according to the classical nucleation theory (CNT is considered. The first scenario considers nucleation of a binary system consisting of water vapour and sulphuric acid (H2SO4 vapour, the second one nucleation of a ternary system additionally involving ammonia (NH3. Here, the two synthetic scenarios are discussed in detail, whereas special attention is payed to the role of turbulence in the formation of the typical UCN burst behaviour, that can often be observed in the surface layer. The intercomparison of the two scenarios reveals large differences in the evolution of the UCN number concentration in the surface layer as well as in the time-height cross-sections of first-order moments and double correlation terms. Although in both cases the occurrence of NPF bursts could be simulated, the burst characteristics and genesis of the bursts are completely different. It is demonstrated

  18. WRF model evaluation for the urban heat island assessment under varying land use/land cover and reference site conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhati, Shweta; Mohan, Manju

    2016-10-01

    Urban heat island effect in Delhi has been assessed using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF v3.5) coupled with urban canopy model (UCM) focusing on air temperature and surface skin temperature. The estimated heat island intensities for different land use/land cover (LULC) have been compared with those derived from in situ and satellite observations. The model performs reasonably well for urban heat island intensity (UHI) estimation and is able to reproduce trend of UHI for urban areas. There is a significant improvement in model performance with inclusion of UCM which results in reduction in root mean-squared errors (RMSE) for temperatures from 1.63 °C (2.89 °C) to 1.13 °C (2.75 °C) for urban (non-urban) areas. Modification of LULC also improves performance for non-urban areas. High UHI zones and top 3 hotspots are captured well by the model. The relevance of selecting a reference point at the periphery of the city away from populated and built-up areas for UHI estimation is examined in the context of rapidly growing cities where rural areas are transforming fast into built-up areas, and reference site may not be appropriate for future years. UHI estimated by WRF model (with and without UCM) with respect to reference rural site compares well with the UHI based on observed in situ data. An alternative methodology is explored using a green area with minimum temperature within the city as a reference site. This alternative methodology works well with observed UHIs and WRF-UCM-simulated UHIs but has poor performance for WRF-simulated UHIs. It is concluded that WRF model can be applied for UHI estimation with classical methodology based on rural reference site. In general, many times WRF model performs satisfactorily, though WRF-UCM always shows a better performance. Hence, inclusion of appropriate representation of urban canopies and land use-land cover is important for improving predictive capabilities of the mesoscale models.

  19. Exposure scenarios for workers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marquart, H.; Northage, C.; Money, C.

    2007-01-01

    The new European chemicals legislation REACH (Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation and restriction of Chemicals) requires the development of Exposure Scenarios describing the conditions and risk management measures needed for the safe use of chemicals. Such Exposure Scenarios should integrate con

  20. Downscaling socio-economic prospective scenarios with a participatory approach for assessing the possible impacts of future land use and cover changes on the vulnerability of societies to mountain risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grémont, Marine; Houet, Thomas

    2015-04-01

    Due to the peculiarities of their landscapes and topography, mountain areas bring together a large range of socio-economic activities whose sustainability is likely to be jeopardised by projected global changes. Disturbance of hydro-meteorological processes will alter slope stability and affect mountain hazards occurrence. Meanwhile, socio-economic transformations will influence land use and cover changes (LUCC), which in turn will affect both hazards occurrence and hazards consequences on buildings, infrastructures and societies. Already faced with recurrent natural hazards, mountain areas will have to cope with increasing natural risks in the future. Better understanding the pathways through which future socio-economic changes might influence LUCC at local scale is thus a crucial step to assess accurately the vulnerability and adaptive capacity of societies to mountain risks in a global change context. Scientists face two main issues in assessing spatially explicit impacts of socio-economic scenarios in mountainous landscapes. First, modelling LUCC at local scale still faces many challenges related to past (observed) LUCC and those to consider in the future in terms of dynamics and processes. Second, downscaling global socio-economic scenarios so that they provide useful input for local LUCC models requires a thorough analysis of local social dynamics and economic drivers at stake, which falls short with current practices. Numerous socio-economic prospective scenarios have recently been developed at regional, national and international scales. They mostly rely on literature reviews and expert workshops carried out through global sectoral analysis (e.g. agriculture, forestry or industry) but only few of these exercises attempt to decline global scenarios at smaller scales confronting global vision with information gathered from the field and stakeholders. Yet, vulnerability assessments are more useful when undertaken at local scales that are relevant to

  1. National Coal Utilization Assessment. a preliminary assessment of the health and environmental effects of coal utilization in the Midwest. Volume I. Energy scenarios, technology characterizations, air and water resource impacts, and health effects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1977-01-01

    This report presents an initial evaluation of the major health and environmental issues associated with increased coal use in the six midwestern states of Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, and Wisconsin. Using an integrated assessment approach, the evaluation proceeds from a base-line scenario of energy demand and facility siting for 1975-2020. Emphasis is placed on impacts from coal extraction, land reclamation, coal combustion for electrical generation, and coal gasification. The range of potential impacts and constraints is illustrated by a second scenario that represents an expected upper limit for coal utilization in Illinois. The following are among the more significant issues identified and evaluated in this study: If environmental and related issues can be resolved, coal will continue to be a major source of energy for the Midwest; existing sulfur emission constraints will increase use of western coal; the resource requirements and environmental impacts of coal utilization will require major significant environmental and economic tradeoffs in site selection; short-term (24-hr) ambient standards for sulfur dioxide will limit the sizes of coal facilities or require advanced control technologies; an impact on public health may result from long-range transport of airborne sulfur emissions from coal facilities in the Midwest; inadequately controlled effluents from coal gasification may cause violations of water-quality standards; the major ecological effects of coal extraction are from pre-mining and post-reclamation land use; and sulfur dioxide is the major potential contributor to effects on vegetation of atmospheric emissions from coal facilities.

  2. Improving exposure scenario definitions within REACH

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lee, Jihyun; Pizzol, Massimo; Thomsen, Marianne

    the different background exposure between two countries allows in fact the definition of a common framework for improving exposure scenarios within REACH system, for monitoring environmental health, and for increasing degree of circularity of resource and substance flows. References 1. European Commission...... instruments to support a precautionary chemicals management system and to protect receptor’s health have also been increasing. Since 2007, the European Union adopted REACH (the Regulation on Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation and Restriction of Chemicals): REACH makes industry responsible for assessing...... and managing the risks posed by industrial chemicals and providing appropriate safety information to their users (EC, 2007). However, to ensure a high level of protection of human health and the environment, there is a need to consider ‘aggregate exposure’ including background exposures from environment which...

  3. Area-Based COI-Referred Rotor Angle Index for Transient Stability Assessment and Control of Power Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Noor Izzri Abdul Wahab

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes an index for judging the severity of transient events of power systems in simulation. The proposed transient stability index, known as the area-based COI-referred rotor angle index, is developed by considering the fact that a large-sized power system is divided into several areas according to the coherency of generators in a particular area. It can be assumed that an equivalent single large machine can represent all the generators in that area. Thus, the assessment of rotor angles for all generators can be simplified by only assessing the index of areas in a power system. The effectiveness of the proposed index in assessing the stability of power systems and its ability in pinpointing the weakest area in the power system is analyzed. Furthermore, this paper developed an emergency control scheme known as the combined UFLS and generator tripping in order to stabilize the system when unstable faults occurred in a power system. The proposed index is used to identify the generator to be tripped when the developed emergency control scheme operates. The performance of the proposed index and the combined UFLS and generator tripping scheme are evaluated on the IEEE 39-bus test system.

  4. An Assessment of the South Asian Summer Monsoon Variability for Present and Future Climatologies Using a High Resolution Regional Climate Model (RegCM4.3 under the AR5 Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mujtaba Hassan

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available We assessed the present and future climatologies of mean summer monsoon over South Asia using a high resolution regional climate model (RegCM4 with a 25 km horizontal resolution. In order to evaluate the performance of the RegCM4 for the reference period (1976–2005 and for the far future (2070–2099, climate change projections under two greenhouse gas representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 were made, the lateral boundary conditions being provided by the geophysical fluid dynamic laboratory global model (GFDL-ESM2M. The regional climate model (RCM improves the simulation of seasonal mean temperature and precipitation patterns compared to driving global climate model (GCM during present-day climate conditions. The regional characteristic features of South Asian summer monsoon (SASM, like the low level jet stream and westerly flow over the northern the Arabian Sea, are well captured by the RegCM4. In spite of some discrepancies, the RegCM4 could simulate the Tibetan anticyclone and the direction of the tropical easterly jet reasonably well at 200 hPa. The projected temperature changes in 2070–2099 relative to 1976–2005 for GFDL-ESM2M show increased warming compared to RegCM4. The projected patterns at the end of 21st century shows an increase in precipitation over the Indian Peninsula and the Western Ghats. The possibilities of excessive precipitation include increased southwesterly flow in the wet period and the effect of model bias on climate change. However, the spatial patterns of precipitation are decreased in intensity and magnitude as the monsoon approaches the foothills of the Himalayas. The RegCM4-projected dry conditions over northeastern India are possibly related to the anomalous anticyclonic circulations in both scenarios.

  5. Market performance and environmental policy. A scenario study for a market oriented environmental policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boom, J.T.; Duizendstraal, A.; De Jong, R.; Koster, J.M.M.; Nentjes, A.; Zhang, Z.X. [Department of Economics and Public Finance of the University of Groningen ECOF, Groningen (Netherlands); Van Buiren, K.; Van Es, G.A.; De Groot, A.W.M.; Velthuijsen, J.W. [Foundation for Economic Research of the University of Amsterdam SEO, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Van Duyse, P.; Heijnes, H. [Applied Environmental Economics TME, The Hague (Netherlands); Dijkgraaf, E.; Varkevisser, M. [Research Centre for Economic Policy OCfEB, Erasmus Universiteit, Rotterdam (Netherlands); Wiersma, D.

    1998-08-01

    Different sets of instruments to realize targets set in the Dutch environmental policy are assessed by comparing scenarios. They have in common their aim to realise the targets set for the year 2010 in the Dutch National Environmental Policy plans, but they differ in the sets of instruments. In the reference scenario mainly conventional instruments are applied. The tradeable permit scenario introduces tradeable environmental permits. The right price scenario introduces competition instead of public monopoly and reduces tax exemptions and subsidies. Chapter 2 of this study deals with the essential features of tradeable permit systems and describes the specific schemes that are part of the tradeable permit scenario. This chapter also compares the economic results of each separate scheme with the corresponding policy in the reference scenario. Chapter 3 deals with the influence of (semi-)public monopoly in markets for environmental services and other services with major environmental impacts on costs and prices. Furthermore, a number of price distorting tax exemptions and subsidies with major environ- mental impacts are identified. This chapter then describes the specific measures aimed at the introduction of competition, control of monopolistic pricing prac- tices and termination of tax exemptions and subsidies that are part of the right price scenario. It also compares the economic results of each separate measure with the corresponding policy in the reference scenario. Whereas Chapters 2 and 3 present the economic consequences of market oriented policies one by one (partial analysis), Chapter 4 presents the economic im- pacts of simultaneous application of conventional versus market oriented instruments (comprehensive analysis). This is done by incorporating a selected num- ber of the instruments described in Chapters 2 and 3 in a computable general equilibrium model of the Dutch economy. Both (selective) scenarios are con- structed for the year 2010. First is the

  6. Assessing the Potential for Salmon Recovery via Floodplain Restoration: A Multitrophic Level Comparison of Dredge-Mined to Reference Segments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bellmore, J. Ryan; Baxter, Colden V.; Ray, Andrew M.; Denny, Lytle; Tardy, Kurt; Galloway, Evelyn

    2012-03-01

    Pre-restoration studies typically focus on physical habitat, rather than the food-base that supports aquatic species. However, both food and habitat are necessary to support the species that habitat restoration is frequently aimed at recovering. Here we evaluate if and how the productivity of the food-base that supports fish production is impaired in a dredge-mined floodplain within the Yankee Fork Salmon River (YFSR), Idaho (USA); a site where past restoration has occurred and where more has been proposed to help recover anadromous salmonids. Utilizing an ecosystem approach, we found that the dredged segment had comparable terrestrial leaf and invertebrate inputs, aquatic primary producer biomass, and production of aquatic invertebrates relative to five reference floodplains. Thus, the food-base in the dredged segment did not necessarily appear impaired. On the other hand, we observed that off-channel aquatic habitats were frequently important to productivity in reference floodplains, and the connection of these habitats in the dredged segment via previous restoration increased invertebrate productivity by 58%. However, using a simple bioenergetic model, we estimated that the invertebrate food-base was at least 4× larger than present demand for food by fish in dredged and reference segments. In the context of salmon recovery efforts, this observation questions whether additional food-base productivity provided by further habitat restoration would be warranted in the YFSR. Together, our findings highlight the importance of studies that assess the aquatic food-base, and emphasize the need for more robust ecosystem models that evaluate factors potentially limiting fish populations that are the target of restoration.

  7. Ambulatory Blood Pressure Monitoring (ABPM) as the reference standard for diagnosis of hypertension and assessment of vascular risk in adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hermida, Ramón C; Smolensky, Michael H; Ayala, Diana E; Portaluppi, Francesco

    2015-01-01

    New information has become available since the ISC, AAMCC, and SECAC released their first extensive guidedelines to improve the diagnosis and treatment of adult arterial hypertension. A critical assessment of evidence and a comparison of what international guidelines now propose are the basis for the following statements, which update the recommendations first issued in 2013. Office blood pressure (BP) measurements should no longer be considered to be the "gold standard" for the diagnosis of hypertension and assessment of cardiovascular risk. Relying on office BP, even when supplemented with at-home wake-time self-measurements, to identify high-risk individuals, disregarding circadian BP patterning and asleep BP level, leads to potential misclassification of 50% of all evaluated persons. Accordingly, ambulatory BP monitoring is the recommended reference standard for the diagnosis of true hypertension and accurate assessment of cardiovascular risk in all adults ≥18 yrs of age, regardless of whether office BP is normal or elevated. Asleep systolic BP mean is the most significant independent predictor of cardiovascular events. The sleep-time relative SBP decline adds prognostic value to the statistical model that already includes the asleep systolic BP mean and corrected for relevant confounding variables. Accordingly, the asleep systolic BP mean is the recommended protocol to diagnose hypertension, assess cardiovascular risk, and predict cardiovascular event-free interval. In men, and in the absence of compelling clinical conditions, reference thresholds for diagnosing hypertension are 120/70 mmHg for the asleep systolic/diastolic BP means derived from ambulatory BP monitoring. However, in women, in the absence of complicating co-morbidities, the same thresholds are lower by 10/5 mmHg, i.e., 110/65 mmHg for the asleep means. In high-risk patients, including those diagnosed with diabetes or chronic kidney disease, and/or those having experienced past

  8. 城市暴雨内涝情景模拟与灾害风险评估%Community-based scenario modelling and disaster risk assessment of urban rainstorm waterlogging

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    尹占娥; 殷杰; 许世远; 温家洪

    2011-01-01

    Scenario modelling and the risk assessment of natural disasters is one of the hotspots in disaster research. However, up until now, urban natural disaster risk assessments lack common procedures and programrnes. This paper selects rainstorm waterlogging as a disaster to research, which is one of the most frequently occurring hazards for most cities in China. As an example, we used a small-scale integrated methodology to assess risks relating to rainstorm waterlogging hazards in the Jing'an District of Shanghai. Based on the basic concept of disaster risk, this paper applies scenario modelling to express the risk of small-scale urban rainstorm waterlogging disasters in different return periods. Through this analysis of vulnerability and exposure, we simulate different disaster scenarios and propose a comprehensive analysis method and procedure for small-scale urban storm waterlogging disaster risk assessments. A grid-based Geographical Information System (GIS) approach,including an urban terrain model, an urban rainfall model and an urban drainage model, was applied to simulate inundation area and depth. Stage-damage curves for residential buildings and contents were then generated by the loss data of waterlogging from field surveys, which were further applied to analyse vulnerability, exposure and loss assessment. Finally, the exceedance probability curve for disaster damage was constructed using the damage of each simulated event and the respective exceedance probabilities. A framework was also developed for coupling the waterlogging risk with the risk planning and management through the exceedance probability curve and annual average waterlogging loss. This is a new exploration for small-scale urban natural disaster scenario simulation and risk assessment.

  9. Assessment of daily food and nutrient intake in Japanese type 2 diabetes mellitus patients using dietary reference intakes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kobayashi, Yukiko; Hattori, Mikako; Wada, Sayori; Iwase, Hiroya; Kadono, Mayuko; Tatsumi, Hina; Kuwahata, Masashi; Fukui, Michiaki; Hasegawa, Goji; Nakamura, Naoto; Kido, Yasuhiro

    2013-06-26

    Medical nutrition therapy for the management of diabetes plays an important role in preventing diabetes complications and managing metabolic control. However, little is known about actual eating habits of individuals with type 2 diabetic mellitus (T2DM), especially in Japan. Therefore, we sought to (1) assess the dietary intake of individuals with T2DM, and (2) characterize their intake relative to national recommendations. This cross-sectional study involved 149 patients (77 males and 72 females) aged 40-79 years with T2DM recruited at a Kyoto hospital. Dietary intake was assessed using a validated self-administered diet history questionnaire. Under-consumption, adequacy, and over-consumption, of nutrients were compared to the age- and sex-based standards of the Japanese Dietary Reference Intakes. Among the results, most notable are (1) the inadequacy of diets in men with respect to intake of vitamins and minerals, likely owing to low intake of vegetables and fruits; (2) excess contributions of fat intake to total energy in both sexes; and (3) excess consumption of sweets and beverages relative to the national average. The prevalence of diabetes complications may be increasing because of a major gap between the typical dietary intake of individuals with T2DM and dietary recommendation.

  10. Assessment of Daily Food and Nutrient Intake in Japanese Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Patients Using Dietary Reference Intakes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Naoto Nakamura

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Medical nutrition therapy for the management of diabetes plays an important role in preventing diabetes complications and managing metabolic control. However, little is known about actual eating habits of individuals with type 2 diabetic mellitus (T2DM, especially in Japan. Therefore, we sought to (1 assess the dietary intake of individuals with T2DM, and (2 characterize their intake relative to national recommendations. This cross-sectional study involved 149 patients (77 males and 72 females aged 40–79 years with T2DM recruited at a Kyoto hospital. Dietary intake was assessed using a validated self-administered diet history questionnaire. Under-consumption, adequacy, and over-consumption, of nutrients were compared to the age- and sex-based standards of the Japanese Dietary Reference Intakes. Among the results, most notable are (1 the inadequacy of diets in men with respect to intake of vitamins and minerals, likely owing to low intake of vegetables and fruits; (2 excess contributions of fat intake to total energy in both sexes; and (3 excess consumption of sweets and beverages relative to the national average. The prevalence of diabetes complications may be increasing because of a major gap between the typical dietary intake of individuals with T2DM and dietary recommendation.

  11. Toward an impairment metric for stereoscopic video: a full-reference video quality metric to assess compressed stereoscopic video.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Silva, Varuna; Arachchi, Hemantha Kodikara; Ekmekcioglu, Erhan; Kondoz, Ahmet

    2013-09-01

    The quality assessment of impaired stereoscopic video is a key element in designing and deploying advanced immersive media distribution platforms. A widely accepted quality metric to measure impairments of stereoscopic video is, however, still to be developed. As a step toward finding a solution to this problem, this paper proposes a full reference stereoscopic video quality metric to measure the perceptual quality of compressed stereoscopic video. A comprehensive set of subjective experiments is performed with 14 different stereoscopic video sequences, which are encoded using both the H.264 and high efficiency video coding compliant video codecs, to develop a subjective test results database of 116 test stimuli. The subjective results are analyzed using statistical techniques to uncover different patterns of subjective scoring for symmetrically and asymmetrically encoded stereoscopic video. The subjective result database is subsequently used for training and validating a simple but effective stereoscopic video quality metric considering heuristics of binocular vision. The proposed metric performs significantly better than state-of-the-art stereoscopic image and video quality metrics in predicting the subjective scores. The proposed metric and the subjective result database will be made publicly available, and it is expected that the proposed metric and the subjective assessments will have important uses in advanced 3D media delivery systems.

  12. Assessment of the phytotoxicity of seaport sediments in the framework of a quarry-deposit scenario: germination tests of sediments aged artificially by column leaching.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bedell, J-P; Bazin, C; Sarrazin, B; Perrodin, Y

    2013-07-01

    The aim of the Sustainable Management of Sediments Dredged in Seaports (SEDIGEST) project is to assess the risks of treated port sediments for terrestrial ecosystems when deposited in quarries. We simulated the "ageing" of these sediments up to the "moment" when plants can germinate. Sediments were leached by water percolating through a laboratory column. Sediments 1 and 2, taken from the port of Toulon (France), were dried and aired. Sediment 3, taken from the port of Guilvinec (France), was stabilised with lime. Phytotoxicity was evaluated on the three artificially aged sediments using germination and early development tests (48 h to 7 days) by Phytotoxkit F(TM) bioassays. The three dilutions tested were performed with the reference "ISO substrate" and with Lolium perenne sp. (rye grass), Sinapis alba (white mustard), and Lepidium sativum (watercress). The tests performed with sediments 1 and 2 showed (1) a decrease of their toxicity to the germination of the species selected following leaching and (2) that L. perenne was the most sensitive species. The tests performed with sediment 3 showed that it was improper for colonisation even after leaching simulating 16 months of ageing. These germination tests on aged sediments identified the effects of leaching and made it possible to appreciate the capacity of the sediments to allow colonisation by plants.

  13. Comparison and Computational Performance of Tsunami-HySEA and MOST Models for LANTEX 2013 Scenario: Impact Assessment on Puerto Rico Coasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macías, Jorge; Mercado, Aurelio; González-Vida, José Manuel; Ortega, Sergio; Castro, Manuel Jesús

    2016-12-01

    Tsunami- HySEA model is used to simulate the Caribbean LANTEX 2013 scenario (LANTEX is the acronym for Large AtlaNtic Tsunami Exercise, which is carried out annually). The numerical simulation of the propagation and inundation phases is performed with a single integrated model but using different mesh resolutions and nested meshes. Special emphasis is placed on assessing the most exposed coastal areas at Puerto Rico affected by this event. Some comparisons with the MOST tsunami model available at the University of Puerto Rico (UPR) are made. Both models compare well for propagating tsunami waves in open sea, producing very similar results. In near-shore shallow waters, Tsunami- HySEA should be compared with the inundation version of MOST, since the propagation version is limited to deeper waters. For inundation, larger differences between model results are observed. Nevertheless, the most striking difference resides in computational time; Tsunami- HySEA is coded using the advantages of GPU architecture, and can produce a 4 h simulation in a 60 arc-sec resolution grid for the whole Caribbean Sea in less than 4 min with a single GPU and as fast as 11 s with 32 GPUs. When details about the inundation must be simulated, a 1 arc-sec (approximately 30 m) inundation resolution mesh covering all of Puerto Rico, an island with dimensions of 160 km east-west and 56 km north-south, is used, and a three-level nested meshes technique implemented. In this case approximately 8 ¾ h of wall clock time is needed for a 2-h simulation in a single GPU (versus more than 2 days for the MOST inundation, running three different parts of the island—West, Center, East—at the same time due to memory limitations in MOST). When domain decomposition techniques are finally implemented by breaking up the computational domain into sub-domains and assigning a GPU to each sub-domain (multi-GPU Tsunami- HySEA version), we show that the wall clock time significantly decreases, allowing high

  14. Assessment of Climate Projections Using Ensembles of CMIP5 GCMs and Developing a Probable Future Scenario for Evaluation of Possible Future Changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmadalipour, A.; Rana, A.; Moradkhani, H.

    2014-12-01

    Global climatic change is expected to have severe effects on natural systems along with various socio-economic aspects of human life. Global Climate Models (GCMs) are widely used to study the impacts in future, with varied projections/simulations from the entire participating member GCMs. This has urged scientific communities across the world try to improve the understandings of future climate conditions, and reduce the uncertainties associated with them. In the present study, we have used various multi-modelling methods, both deterministic and probabilistic, to reduce the model uncertainties, in historical time period of 1970-2000. The analysis is performed for uncertainty bounds of precipitation and temperature using 10 selected Global Climate Models (GCMs) from Climate Model Inter-comparison project Phase 5 (CMIP5) dataset over 10 sub-basins of Columbia River Basin (CRB). All the multi-modelling methods are applied and evaluated in accordance to their performance indicator using Taylor diagrams on simulating past climate for all 10 sub-basins. The best performing multi-model method, on basis of performance of all the climatic parameters, is chosen for a particular sub-basin and same is used to develop a probable future scenario for the period of 2010-2099. All the analysis and computations are performed on statistically downscaled GCM data to increase the accuracy and better capture the uncertainty bounds on sub-basin scale, as well as enhancing the ability of multi-modeling techniques. All the future time series are used to assess the uncertainties of climatic parameters for climate change analysis. Results have brought insight into each of the multi-modelling techniques i.e. highlighting the pros and cons of all the applied methods. It was also inferred that multi-modelling techniques varied from basin to basin and with different variables, as per their capabilities to capture the observation spread/uncertainty. Eventually, the different ensemble time series

  15. An evaluation of inorganic toxicity reference values for use in assessing hazards to American robins (Turdus migratorius).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beyer, W Nelson; Sample, Bradley E

    2017-03-01

    When performing screening-level and baseline risk assessments, assessors usually compare estimated exposures of wildlife receptor species with toxicity reference values (TRVs). We modeled the exposure of American robins (Turdus migratorius) to 10 elements (As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Hg, Mn, Pb, Se, Zn, and V) in spring and early summer, a time when earthworms are the preferred prey. We calculated soil benchmarks associated with possible toxic effects to these robins from 6 sets of published TRVs. Several of the resulting soil screening-level benchmarks were inconsistent with each other and less than soil background concentrations. Accordingly, we examined the derivations of the TRVs as a possible source of error. In the case of V, a particularly toxic chemical compound (ammonium vanadate) containing V, not normally present in soil, had been used to estimate a TRV. In the cases of Zn and Cu, use of uncertainty values of 10 in estimating TRVs led to implausibly low soil screening values. In the case of Pb, a TRV was calculated from studies demonstrating reductions in egg production in Japanese quail (Coturnix coturnix japonica) exposed to Pb concentrations well below than those causing toxic effects in other species of birds. The results on quail, which were replicated in additional trials, are probably not applicable to other, unrelated species, although we acknowledge that only a small fraction of all species of birds has been tested. These examples underscore the importance of understanding the derivation and relevance of TRVs before selecting them for use in screening or in ecological risk assessment. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2017;13:352-359. © 2016 SETAC.

  16. A short note on integrated assessment modeling approaches : Rejoinder to the review of "Making or breaking climate targets - The AMPERE study on staged accession scenarios for climate policy"

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kriegler, Elmar; Riahi, Keywan; Bauer, Nico; Schwanitz, Valeria Jana; Petermann, Nils; Bosetti, Valentina; Marcucci, Adriana; Otto, Sander; Paroussos, Leonidas; Rao-Skirbekk, Shilpa; Currás, Tabaré Arroyo; Ashina, Shuichi; Bollen, Johannes; Eom, Jiyong; Hamdi-Cherif, Meriem; Longden, Thomas; Kitous, Alban; Méjean, Aurélie; Sano, Fuminori; Schaeffer, Michiel; Wada, Kenichi; Capros, Pantelis; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Edenhofer, Ottmar; Bertram, Christoph; Bibas, Ruben; Edmonds, Jae; Johnson, Nils; Krey, Volker; Luderer, Gunnar; McCollum, David; Jiang, Kejun

    2015-01-01

    We provide a rejoinder to a review (Rosen, 2015) of our original article "Making or breaking climate targets - the AMPERE study on staged accession scenarios for climate policy" (Kriegler et al., 2015a). We have a substantial disagreement with the content of the review, and feel that it is plagued b

  17. A plausible worst-case scenario of increasing multidrug resistance as a tool for assessing societal risks and capabilities in Sweden.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roffey, Roger; Lindberg, Anna; Molin, Lena; Wikman-Svahn, Per

    2015-01-01

    A "plausible worst-case scenario" of a gradually increasing level of multidrug-resistant bacteria (carbapenem-resistant E. coli) in the human population was developed and used to study how Swedish authorities would manage this situation and to identify preventive measures that could be taken. Key findings include: (1) a scenario in which 5% of the population in southern Sweden become carriers of carbapenem-resistant E. coli is possible or even likely in 10 to 15 years; (2) it is not clear when and how the increase of E. coli resistant to carbapenems as in the scenario would be detected in the general human population; (3) identified negative consequences of the scenario on society were primarily due to increased demands on the healthcare system and potential consequences for food-producing animals, food safety, and environmental health; and (4) a number of preventive and mitigation measures were suggested, including initiating long-term screening programs for public and animal health as well as for food and water production to monitor increasing levels of carbapenem resistance. Strategies and plans to prevent and handle future increasing prevalence of multidrug-resistant bacteria need to be developed.

  18. Review of Climate Scenarios

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    Concept and application requirements of climate scenarios were introduced briefly,meanwhile,progresses on theoretical and applied aspects of climate scenarios creation techniques were discussed systematically.Two methods on predicted regional climate changing scenarios,elevating the spatial resolution output and downscaling method,could retrieve the insufficiencies respectively.And the statistical-dynamical downscaling method will be an important developing trend in the developing of downscaling techniques.

  19. Investigating the evolution of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways with a large number of scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schweizer, V. J.; Guivarch, C.; Rozenberg, J.

    2013-12-01

    The new scenario framework for climate change research includes alternative possible trends for socioeconomic development called Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). The SSPs bear some similarities to other scenarios used for global change research, but they also have important differences. Like the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios or the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, SSPs are defined by a scenario logic consisting of two axes. However, these axes define SSPs with respect to their location in an outcome space for challenges to mitigation and to adaptation rather than by their drivers. Open questions for the SSPs include what their drivers are and how the time dimension could be interpreted with the outcomes space. We present a new analytical approach for addressing both questions by studying large numbers of scenarios produced by an integrated assessment model, IMACLIM-R. We systematically generated 432 scenarios and used the SSP framework to classify them by typology. We then analyzed them dynamically, tracing their evolution through the SSP challenges space at annual time steps over the period 2010-2090. Through this approach, we found that many scenarios do not remain fixed to a particular SSP domain; they drift from one domain to another. In papers describing the framework for new scenarios, SSPs are envisioned as hypothetical (counter-factual) reference scenarios that remain fixed in one domain over some time period of interest. However, we conclude that it may be important to also research scenarios that shift across SSP domains. This is relevant for another open question, which is what scenarios are important to explore given their consequences. Through a data mining technique, we uncovered prominent drivers for scenarios that shift across SSP domains. Scenarios with different challenges for adaptation and mitigation (that is, mitigation and adaptation challenges that are not co-varying) were found to be the least stable, and the following

  20. An evaluation of inorganic toxicity reference values for use in assessing hazards to American robins (Turdus migratorius)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beyer, W. Nelson; Sample, Bradley E.

    2017-01-01

    When performing screening-level and baseline risk assessments, assessors usually compare estimated exposures of wildlife receptor species with toxicity reference values (TRVs). We modeled the exposure of American robins (Turdus migratorius) to 10 elements (As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Hg, Mn, Pb, Se, Zn, and V) in spring and early summer, a time when earthworms are the preferred prey. We calculated soil benchmarks associated with possible toxic effects to these robins from 6 sets of published TRVs. Several of the resulting soil screening-level benchmarks were inconsistent with each other and less than soil background concentrations. Accordingly, we examined the derivations of the TRVs as a possible source of error. In the case of V, a particularly toxic chemical compound (ammonium vanadate) containing V, not normally present in soil, had been used to estimate a TRV. In the cases of Zn and Cu, use of uncertainty values of 10 in estimating TRVs led to implausibly low soil screening values. In the case of Pb, a TRV was calculated from studies demonstrating reductions in egg production in Japanese quail (Coturnix coturnix japonica) exposed to Pb concentrations well below than those causing toxic effects in other species of birds. The results on quail, which were replicated in additional trials, are probably not applicable to other, unrelated species, although we acknowledge that only a small fraction of all species of birds has been tested. These examples underscore the importance of understanding the derivation and relevance of TRVs before selecting them for use in screening or in ecological risk assessment.

  1. An Assessment of Technical and Production Risks of Candidate Low-Cost Attitude/Heading Reference Systems(AHRS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuchnovicz, Daniel; Burgess, Malcolm; Hammers, William

    1999-01-01

    This report provides an assessment of technical and production risks of candidate low-cost attitude/heading reference systems (AHRS) for use in the Advanced General Aviation Transport Experiments (AGATE) airplanes. A low-cost AHRS is a key component of modem "glass cockpit" flight displays for General Aviation (GA) aircraft. The technical capabilities of several candidate low-cost AHRS were examined and described along with the technical issues involved with using all solid-state components for attitude measurement. An economic model was developed which describes the expected profit, rate of return, and volume requirements for the manufacture of low-cost AHRS for GA aircraft in the 2000 to 2020 time frame. The model is the result of interviews with GA airframe manufacturers, avionics manufacturers and historical analysis of avionics of similar complexity. The model shows that a manufacturer will break even after three years of AHRS production, realizing an 18 percent rate of return (23 percent profit) on an investment of $3.5M over the 20 year period. A start-up production estimate showed costs of $6-12M for a new company to build and certify an AHRS from scratch, considered to be a high-risk proposition, versus $0.25-0.75M for an experienced avionics manufacturer to manufacture a design under license, a low-risk proposition.

  2. A Medical Image Watermarking Technique for Embedding EPR and Its Quality Assessment Using No-Reference Metrics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rupinder Kaur

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Digital watermarking can be used as an important tool for the security and copyright protection of digital multimedia content. The present paper explores its applications as a quality indicator of a watermarked medical image when subjected to intentional (noise, cropping, alteration or unintentional (compression, transmission or filtering operations. The watermark also carries EPR data along with a binary mark (used for quality assessment. The binary mark is used as a No-Reference (NR quality metrics that blindly estimates the quality of an image without the need of original image. It is a semi-fragile watermark which degrades at around the same rate as the original image and thus gives an indication of the quality degradation of the host image at the receiving end. In the proposed method, the original image is divided into two parts- ROI and non-ROI. ROI is an area that contains diagnostically important information and must be processed without any distortion. The binary mark and EPR are embedded into the DCT domain of Non-ROI. Embedding EPR within a medical image reduces storage and transmission overheads and no additional file has to be sent along with an image. The watermark (binary mark and EPR is extracted from non-ROI part at the receiving end and a measure of degradation of binary mark is used to estimate the quality of the original image. The performance of the proposed method is evaluated by calculating MSE and PSNR of original and extracted mark.

  3. [Radiation risk assessment for plant reference species (Pinus sylvestris and Vicia cracca) from the area of radium production waste storage].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evseeva, T I; Geras'kin, S A; Belykh, E S; Maĭstrenko, T A; Vakhrusheva, O M

    2012-01-01

    The risk of an enhanced level of radionuclides of the uranium and thorium decay series in the environment for reference plant species (Pinus sylvestris and Vicia cracca) was assessed. 238U, 230Th, 226Ra, 210Po, 232Th and 228Th concentration factors for plants were found to be lower than one. The aboveground parts of Vicia cracca sampled from the area of the radium production waste storage mainly accumulated 22Ra, Pinus sylvestris branches--210Pb, 226Ra and 210Po. LOEDR calculated for the chromosome aberration frequency in both plant studies was 17-71 microGy/h. LOERD values for the reproductive capacity decrease in P. sylvestris and V. cracca were 17-71 microGy/h and 116-258 microGy/h, correspondingly. EDR10 for the chromosome aberration frequency in P. sylvestris and V. cracca were 148 and 347 microGy/h, that is, correspondingly, 255 and 708 times higher that background values. EDR10 for the plant reproductive capacity was 11-34 microGy/h, which 19-69 times increases the background values.

  4. Cluster correlations - a test for biased scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Martinez-gonzalez, E.; Sanz, J.L.

    1988-01-01

    The cluster autocorrelation function Xi(c) and the galaxy-cluster cross-correlation Xi(gc) are used to test the biased structure formation in several scenarios. A scale-free spectrum can reproduce the observed Xi(c), but it is in contradiction to Xi(gc). On the other hand, acceptable results are obtained for Xi(gc) in cold dark matter scenarios with adiabatic and isocurvature fluctuations. However, these scenarios are rejected on the grounds of Xi(c). 42 references.

  5. Intensity earthquake scenario (scenario event - a damaging earthquake with higher probability of occurrence) for the city of Sofia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aleksandrova, Irena; Simeonova, Stela; Solakov, Dimcho; Popova, Maria

    2014-05-01

    Among the many kinds of natural and man-made disasters, earthquakes dominate with regard to their social and economical impact on the urban environment. Global seismic risk to earthquakes are increasing steadily as urbanization and development occupy more areas that a prone to effects of strong earthquakes. Additionally, the uncontrolled growth of mega cities in highly seismic areas around the world is often associated with the construction of seismically unsafe buildings and infrastructures, and undertaken with an insufficient knowledge of the regional seismicity peculiarities and seismic hazard. The assessment of seismic hazard and generation of earthquake scenarios is the first link in the prevention chain and the first step in the evaluation of the seismic risk. The earthquake scenarios are intended as a basic input for developing detailed earthquake damage scenarios for the cities and can be used in earthquake-safe town and infrastructure planning. The city of Sofia is the capital of Bulgaria. It is situated in the centre of the Sofia area that is the most populated (the population is of more than 1.2 mil. inhabitants), industrial and cultural region of Bulgaria that faces considerable earthquake risk. The available historical documents prove the occurrence of destructive earthquakes during the 15th-18th centuries in the Sofia zone. In 19th century the city of Sofia has experienced two strong earthquakes: the 1818 earthquake with epicentral intensity I0=8-9 MSK and the 1858 earthquake with I0=9-10 MSK. During the 20th century the strongest event occurred in the vicinity of the city of Sofia is the 1917 earthquake with MS=5.3 (I0=7-8 MSK). Almost a century later (95 years) an earthquake of moment magnitude 5.6 (I0=7-8 MSK) hit the city of Sofia, on May 22nd, 2012. In the present study as a deterministic scenario event is considered a damaging earthquake with higher probability of occurrence that could affect the city with intensity less than or equal to VIII

  6. Assessment of the Impact of Metropolitan-Scale Urban Planning Scenarios on the Moist Thermal Environment under Global Warming: A Study of the Tokyo Metropolitan Area Using Regional Climate Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Asuka Suzuki-Parker

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Using a high-resolution regional climate model coupled with urban canopy model, the present study provides the first attempt in quantifying the impact of metropolitan-scale urban planning scenarios on moist thermal environment under global warming. Tokyo metropolitan area is selected as a test case. Three urban planning scenarios are considered: status quo, dispersed city, and compact city. Their impact on the moist thermal environment is assessed using wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT. Future projections for the 2070s show a 2–4°C increase in daytime mean WBGT relative to the current climate. The urban scenario impacts are shown to be small, with a −0.4 to +0.4°C range. Relative changes in temperature and humidity as the result of a given urban scenario are shown to be critical in determining the sign of the WBGT changes; however, such changes are not necessarily determined by local changes in urban land surface parameters. These findings indicate that urban land surface changes may improve or worsen the local moist thermal environment and that metropolitan-scale urban planning is inefficient in mitigating heat-related health risks for mature cities like Tokyo.

  7. Nuclear Security Futures Scenarios.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Keller, Elizabeth James Kistin [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Warren, Drake Edward [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hayden, Nancy Kay [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Passell, Howard D. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Malczynski, Leonard A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Backus, George A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-01-01

    This report provides an overview of the scenarios used in strategic futures workshops conducted at Sandia on September 21 and 29, 2016. The workshops, designed and facilitated by analysts in Center 100, used scenarios to enable thought leaders to think collectively about the changing aspects of global nuclear security and the potential implications for the US Government and Sandia National Laboratories.

  8. Scenarios for nature development

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Harms, W.B.

    1995-01-01

    A procedure in backcasting scenarios is presented. Two case-studies differing in scale illustrate the differences in ecological contribution to plan design and to plan evaluation. Scenarios for nature development are presented for both case-studies, based on ecological objectives and spatial strateg

  9. Probabilistic-Numerical assessment of pyroclastic current hazard at Campi Flegrei and Naples city: Multi-VEI scenarios as a tool for full-scale risk management

    CERN Document Server

    Mastrolorenzo, Giuseppe; Pappalardo, Lucia; Rossano, Sergio

    2016-01-01

    The Campi Flegrei volcanic field (Italy) poses very high risk to the highly urbanized Neapolitan area. Eruptive history was dominated by explosive activity producing pyroclastic currents (PDCs; (Proclastic Density Currents) ranging in scale from localized base surges to regional flows. Here we apply probabilistic numerical simulation approaches to produce PDC hazard maps, based on a comprehensive spectrum of flow properties and vent locations. These maps and provide all probable Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) scenarios from different source vents in the caldera, relevant for risk management planning. For each VEI scenario, we report the conditional probability for PDCs (i.e., the probability for a given area to be affected by the passage of PDCs) and related dynamic pressure. Model results indicate that PDCs from VEI<4 events would be confined within the Campi Flegrei caldera, PDC propagation being impeded by the northern and eastern caldera walls. Conversely, PDCs from VEI 4-5 events could invade a wide...

  10. Regional scenario building as a tool to support vulnerability assessment of food & water security and livelihood conditions under varying natural resources managements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reinhardt, Julia; Liersch, Stefan; Dickens, Chris; Kabaseke, Clovis; Mulugeta Lemenih, Kassaye; Sghaier, Mongi; Hattermann, Fred

    2013-04-01

    Participatory regional scenario building was carried out with stakeholders and local researchers in four meso-scale case studies (CS) in Africa. In all CS the improvement of food and / or water security and livelihood conditions was identified as the focal issue. A major concern was to analyze the impacts of different plausible future developments on these issues. The process of scenario development is of special importance as it helps to identify main drivers, critical uncertainties and patterns of change. Opportunities and constraints of actors and actions become clearer and reveal adaptation capacities. Effective strategies must be furthermore reasonable and accepted by local stakeholders to be implemented. Hence, developing scenarios and generating strategies need the integration of local knowledge. The testing of strategies shows how they play out in different scenarios and how robust they are. Reasons and patterns of social and natural vulnerability can so be shown. The scenario building exercise applied in this study is inspired by the approach from Peter Schwartz. It aims at determining critical uncertainties and to identify the most important driving forces for a specific focal issue which are likely to shape future developments of a region. The most important and uncertain drivers were analyzed and systematized with ranking exercises during meetings with local researchers and stakeholders. Cause-effect relationships were drawn in the form of concept maps either during the meetings or by researchers based on available information. Past observations and the scenario building outcomes were used to conduct a trend analysis. Cross-comparisons were made to find similarities and differences between CS in terms of main driving forces, patterns of change, opportunities and constraints. Driving forces and trends which aroused consistently over scenarios and CS were identified. First results indicate that livelihood conditions of people rely often directly on the

  11. Learning Through Scenario Planning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Balarezo, Jose

    This project investigates the uses and effects of scenario planning in companies operating in highly uncertain and dynamic environments. Whereas previous research on scenario planning has fallen short of providing sufficient evidence of its mechanisms and effects on individual or organizational...... level variables, this research corrects this void by investigating the dynamics of organizational learning through the lenses of a corporate scenario planning process. This enhances our scientific understanding of the role that scenario planning might play in the context of organizational learning...... and counterintuitive ways in which an organization uses scenario planning in balancing the tension between exploration and exploitation. Moreover, this research proposes two novel mechanisms designed to enhance learning flows. At the core of this dissertation are four papers which in combination solidify our...

  12. Integrative Scenario Development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joerg A. Priess

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Scenarios are employed to address a large number of future environmental and socioeconomic challenges. We present a conceptual framework for the development of scenarios to integrate the objectives of different stakeholder groups. Based on the framework, land-use scenarios were developed to provide a common base for further research. At the same time, these scenarios assisted regional stakeholders to bring forward their concerns and arrive at a shared understanding of challenges between scientific and regional stakeholders, which allowed them to eventually support regional decision making. The focus on the integration of views and knowledge domains of different stakeholder groups, such as scientists and practitioners, required rigorous and repeated measures of quality control. The application of the integrative concept provided products for both stakeholder groups, and the process of scenario development facilitated cooperation and learning within both the scientist and practitioner groups as well as between the two groups.

  13. Assessment of daily reference evapotranspiration in Sicily by means of POWER-NASA agro-climatology archive

    Science.gov (United States)

    Negm, Amro; Jabro, Jay; Provenzano, Giuseppe

    2016-04-01

    The importance of evapotranspiration, ET, processes has long been recognized in many disciplines, including hydrologic and drainage studies as well as for irrigation system design and management. A wide number of equations have been proposed to estimate crop reference evapotranspiration, ET0, based on the variables affecting the process. When a full data set of climate variables is available, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations recommended to use the physically based FAO-56 Penman-Monteith equation. The lack of climate variables and particularly of solar radiation has led several researchers to propose simplified ET0 estimation equations using a limited number of climate variables. These equations, however, need site-specific validation prior to their use and cannot be generalized. Recently, the American National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), created an efficient and open access agro-climatology archive in the frame of the Prediction Of Worldwide Energy Resource (POWER) project containing, on global scale, a long-series of meteorological variables and surface solar energy fluxes. The main objective of the research was to assess the suitability of POWER-NASA open access archive to estimate daily reference evapotranspiration, ET0, in Sicily, for the period 2006-2014. Daily ET0 were evaluated according to FAO-56 PM equation, by considering the POWER-NASA database characterized by a grid resolution of 1° latitude × 1° longitude, as well as the climate data measured on the ground, by a network of 36 meteorological stations installed in Sicily and belonging to the Agro-meteorological Information Service (SIAS). After comparing the climate data available in both databases (minimum, maximum and average air temperature and relative air humidity, wind speed, solar radiation and air pressure), a statistical comparison was also carried out on ET0 values estimated with the FAO-56 PM equation. The analysis showed a good correlation

  14. A resilience engineering approach to assess major accident risks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hollnagel, E.

    2013-01-01

    This chapter describes how the principles of Resilience Engineering can be used to make a risk assessment of an Integrated Operations (IO) scenario. It refers to the case study provided in Chapter 12.......This chapter describes how the principles of Resilience Engineering can be used to make a risk assessment of an Integrated Operations (IO) scenario. It refers to the case study provided in Chapter 12....

  15. Web Based Tool for Mission Operations Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyles, Carole A.; Bindschadler, Duane L.

    2008-01-01

    A conventional practice for spaceflight projects is to document scenarios in a monolithic Operations Concept document. Such documents can be hundreds of pages long and may require laborious updates. Software development practice utilizes scenarios in the form of smaller, individual use cases, which are often structured and managed using UML. We have developed a process and a web-based scenario tool that utilizes a similar philosophy of smaller, more compact scenarios (but avoids the formality of UML). The need for a scenario process and tool became apparent during the authors' work on a large astrophysics mission. It was noted that every phase of the Mission (e.g., formulation, design, verification and validation, and operations) looked back to scenarios to assess completeness of requirements and design. It was also noted that terminology needed to be clarified and structured to assure communication across all levels of the project. Attempts to manage, communicate, and evolve scenarios at all levels of a project using conventional tools (e.g., Excel) and methods (Scenario Working Group meetings) were not effective given limitations on budget and staffing. The objective of this paper is to document the scenario process and tool created to offer projects a low-cost capability to create, communicate, manage, and evolve scenarios throughout project development. The process and tool have the further benefit of allowing the association of requirements with particular scenarios, establishing and viewing relationships between higher- and lower-level scenarios, and the ability to place all scenarios in a shared context. The resulting structured set of scenarios is widely visible (using a web browser), easily updated, and can be searched according to various criteria including the level (e.g., Project, System, and Team) and Mission Phase. Scenarios are maintained in a web-accessible environment that provides a structured set of scenario fields and allows for maximum

  16. Assessing forest vulnerability and the potential distribution of pine beetles under current and future climate scenarios in the Interior West of the US

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evangelista, P.H.; Kumar, S.; Stohlgren, T.J.; Young, N.E.

    2011-01-01

    The aim of our study was to estimate forest vulnerability and potential distribution of three bark beetles (Curculionidae: Scolytinae) under current and projected climate conditions for 2020 and 2050. Our study focused on the mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae), western pine beetle (Dendroctonus brevicomis), and pine engraver (Ips pini). This study was conducted across eight states in the Interior West of the US covering approximately 2.2millionkm2 and encompassing about 95% of the Rocky Mountains in the contiguous US. Our analyses relied on aerial surveys of bark beetle outbreaks that occurred between 1991 and 2008. Occurrence points for each species were generated within polygons created from the aerial surveys. Current and projected climate scenarios were acquired from the WorldClim database and represented by 19 bioclimatic variables. We used Maxent modeling technique fit with occurrence points and current climate data to model potential beetle distributions and forest vulnerability. Three available climate models, each having two emission scenarios, were modeled independently and results averaged to produce two predictions for 2020 and two predictions for 2050 for each analysis. Environmental parameters defined by current climate models were then used to predict conditions under future climate scenarios, and changes in different species' ranges were calculated. Our results suggested that the potential distribution for bark beetles under current climate conditions is extensive, which coincides with infestation trends observed in the last decade. Our results predicted that suitable habitats for the mountain pine beetle and pine engraver beetle will stabilize or decrease under future climate conditions, while habitat for the western pine beetle will continue to increase over time. The greatest increase in habitat area was for the western pine beetle, where one climate model predicted a 27% increase by 2050. In contrast, the predicted habitat of the

  17. Creating and coupling a high-resolution DTM with a 1-D hydraulic model in a GIS for scenario-based assessment of avulsion hazard in a gravel-bed river

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aggett, G. R.; Wilson, J. P.

    2009-12-01

    In this paper we explore the development and assimilation of a high resolution topographic surface with a one-dimensional hydraulic model for investigation of avulsion hazard potential on a gravel-bed river. A detailed channel and floodplain digital terrain model (DTM) is created to define the geometry parameter required by the 1D hydraulic model HEC-RAS. The ability to extract dense and optimally located cross-sections is presented as a means to optimize HEC-RAS performance. A number of flood scenarios are then run in HEC-RAS to determine the inundation potential of modeled events, the post-processed output of which facilitates calculation of spatially explicit shear stress ( τ) and level of geomorphic work (specific stream power per unit bed area, ω) for each of these. Further enhancing this scenario-based approach, the DTM is modified to simulate a large woody debris (LWD) jam and active-channel sediment aggradation to assess impact on innundation, τ, and ω, under previously modeled flow conditions. The high resolution DTM facilitates overlay and evaluation of modeled scenario results in a spatially explicit context containing considerable detail of hydrogeomorphic and other features influencing hydraulics (bars, secondary and scour channels, levees). This offers advantages for: (i) assessing the avulsion hazard potential and spatial distribution of other hydrologic and fluvial geomorphic processes; and (ii) exploration of the potential impacts of specific management strategies on the channel, including river restoration activities.

  18. Regional issue identification and assessment (RIIA). Volume I. An analysis of the TRENDLONG MID-MID Scenario for Federal Region 10

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wilfert, G. L.; Beckwith, M. A.; Cowan, C. E.; Keizur, G. R. [comps.

    1979-07-01

    Environmental, human health and safety, socioeconomic and institutional impacts of future energy development for Federal Region 10, which includes the states of Alaska, Idaho, Oregon, and Washington, are reported. It is concluded that the reduction in electric generating capacity of 568 MWe specified by the scenario for Alaska will not be realized because of institutional constraints and economic impacts. Development of 1000 MWe of geothermal generating capacity in Region 10 called for by the scenario will not be met by 1990. Besides technical feasibility and economic contraints, procedures in Oregon and Washington for securing leases and siting permits have not been fully developed. The location and impacts associated with construction and operation of oil and gas transshipment facilities such as the proposed pipeline to transport natural gas from fields in northern Alaska to the lower 48 states and the pipeline to transport Alaskan oil through Washington State to refineries in the Midwest are likely to be important issues in the Region. The addition of 7,951 MWe to the currently existing hydroelectric generating capacity of 29,990 MWe by 1990 will intensify competition among multiple uses of limited water resources of the Columbia and Snake River systems which drain Idaho, Oregon, and Washington. Irrigation, recreation, transportation, maintenance of wildlife habitats and anadromous fisheries conflict and compete with hydroelectric power generation. Public opposition to further development of nuclear power currently exists and seems to be intensifying in light of recent events. The scenario-specified addition of 4,816 MWe of nuclear generating capacity to the Region's current nuclear capacity of 2,016 MWe may be jeopardized by this opposition; specifically the 1,174 MWe addition to Oregon's nuclear capacity may not be realized.

  19. Scenarios and Strategies for Africa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2011-11-15

    In 2011, IRENA will start developing scenarios and strategies for Africa. This is a pilot study for a project that will ultimately encompass the whole world. The selection of Africa first indicates the priority that the IRENA work programme places on the continent. In the framework of the 2011 IRENA work programme, the analysis of scenarios and strategies will feed into the renewables readiness assessment, which will assess policy priorities and best practices in renewable energy policy-making. This, in turn, will be the basis for financing investment and capacity building activities. Energy policy advice must consider issues, such as the structure of energy supply and demand, the past and future energy trends, renewable energy resources, energy economics and technology access. Scenarios and strategies are key tools for such an analysis. Regional and national differences must be considered and individual sectors and end-use categories further analysed. These include power generation, cooking, heating, industrial process heat, and transport. Urban and rural solutions will be dealt with separately, as well as centralised and decentralised solutions. The analysis will cover issues, such as potentials, technology, supply chains and investment needs.

  20. Structural lesions detected by magnetic resonance imaging in the spine of patients with spondyloarthritis - definitions, assessment system, and reference image set

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Østergaard, Mikkel; Maksymowych, Walter P; Pedersen, Susanne J;

    2009-01-01

    are assessed at each vertebral endplate at all 23 spinal levels from C2/3 to L5/S1, whereas facet joint lesions are to be assessed by segmental level (cervical, thoracic, and lumbar). CONCLUSION: An anatomy-based set of definitions and an assessment system for structural lesions in the spine of patients......OBJECTIVE: There is no reliable and sensitive magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) assessment system for structural lesions in patients with spondyloarthritis (SpA). We sought to develop and illustrate a detailed anatomy-based set of MRI definitions and an assessment system for structural lesions...... in the spine of patients with SpA. METHODS: MRI definitions of different structural ("chronic") lesions at various anatomical locations in the spine, and an accompanying assessment system, were agreed by consensus within the Canada-Denmark MRI working group. Subsequently, a reference image set...

  1. Comparison of future energy scenarios for Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kwon, Pil Seok; Østergaard, Poul Alberg

    2012-01-01

    Scenario-making is becoming an important tool in energy policy making and energy systems analyses. This article probes into the making of scenarios for Denmark by presenting a comparison of three future scenarios which narrate 100% renewable energy system for Denmark in 2050; IDA 2050, Climate...... Commission 2050, and CEESA (Coherent Energy and Environmental System Analysis). Generally, although with minor differences, the scenarios suggest the same technological solutions for the future such as expansion of biomass usage and wind power capacity, integration of transport sector into the other energy...... sectors. The methodologies used in two academic scenarios, IDA 2050 and CEESA, are compared. The main differences in the methodologies of IDA 2050 and CEESA are found in the estimation of future biomass potential, transport demand assessment, and a trial to examine future power grid in an electrical...

  2. Scenarios for Ecosystem Services: An Overview

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elena M. Bennett

    2006-06-01

    Full Text Available The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA scenarios address changes in ecosystem services and their implications for human well-being. Ecological changes pose special challenges for long-term thinking, because of the possibility of regime shifts that occur rapidly yet alter the availability of ecosystem services for generations. Moreover, ecological feedbacks can intensify human modification of ecosystems, creating a spiral of poverty and ecosystem degradation. Such complex dynamics were evaluated by a mixture of qualitative and quantitative analyses in the MA scenarios. Collectively, the scenarios explore problems such as the connections of poverty reduction and ecosystem services, and trade-offs among ecosystem services. Several promising approaches are considered by the scenarios, including uses of biodiversity to build resilience of ecosystem services, actively adaptive management, and green technology. Although the scenarios do not prescribe an optimal path, they illuminate the consequences of different policies toward ecosystem services.

  3. 多气候情景下大兴安岭森林燃烧性评估%Assessment of Burn Probability Assessment in Daxing’anling under Multi-Climatic Scenarios

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    苗庆林; 田晓瑞

    2016-01-01

    【目的】利用燃烧概率模型 BURN-P3描述未来不同气候情景下大兴安岭地区的林火动态变化,提高对气候变化影响的认知,为开展林火管理适应技术提供科学依据。【方法】基于 RCP2.6、RCP4.5、RCP6.0和 RCP8.5气候情景的气候模式数据,利用历史地面观测气象数据对气候模式数据的气温和降水量分别进行了校正。根据火险天气指数系统( FWI)分别计算研究区各格点的森林火险天气指数,结合研究区可燃物类型、火发生和地形等数据,利用 BURN-P3软件逐日模拟1971—2050年黑龙江大兴安岭地区的火发生与蔓延状况,分析不同气候情景下的森林燃烧概率和火行为变化。【结果】1991—2010年研究区模拟平均燃烧概率为0.0108,过火区(除2003年)燃烧概率为0.0113,火发生位置的平均燃烧概率为0.01245,t检验表明差异显著。2003年研究区平均燃烧概率为0.0142,比1991—2010年平均值高31.5%。通过对过去时段的模拟结果与实际过火区比较分析,表明 BURN-P3模型能较好地模拟大兴安岭地区的林火动态。与基准时段相比,2021—2050年 RCP2.6、RCP4.5、RCP6.0和RCP8.5气候情景下燃烧概率平均增幅分别为-6.21%,7.71%,7.80%和19.48%,燃烧概率增幅较大的区域主要分布在中南部;火烧强度将分别增加-13.0%,4.4%,1.5%和8.0%;树冠火比例分别增加-12.7%,4.2%,5.0%和4.7%,中部和西部树冠火增多显著。【结论】BURN-P3模型可用于模拟大兴安岭的林火动态,模拟结果可反映森林燃烧概率状况。与基准时段相比,2021—2050时段 RCP2.6气候情景下平均燃烧概率有所降低, RCP4.5、RCP6.0和 RCP8.5气候情景下燃烧概率将增加,火烧强度、蔓延速度和树冠火比率都呈现小幅增加。中南部的火活动明显增强,不同气候情景之间有所差异。%Objective]The assessment for forest combustion is

  4. Eco-efficient production of spring barley in a changed climate: A Life Cycle Assessment including primary data from future climate scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Niero, Monia; Ingvordsen, Cathrine Heinz; Peltonen-Sainio, Pirjo

    2015-01-01

    of predicted extreme events, simulated through a long heat-wave. LCA results showed that the changed climatic conditions will likely increase the negative impacts on the environment from Danish spring barley cultivation, since all environmental impact categories experienced increased impact for all...... strategies should mainly focus on maintaining or improving crop productivity. The LCA also showed that selection of proper cultivars for future climate conditions including the challenge from extreme events is one of the most effective ways to reduce future environmental impacts of spring barley. Finally...... and including earlier sowing and cultivar selection as measures of adaptation to a changed climate. A baseline scenario describing the current spring barley cultivation in Denmark was defined, and the expected main deviations were identified (differences in pesticide treatment index, modifications in nitrate...

  5. Simulating geometrically complex blast scenarios

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Ian G. CULLIS; Nikos NIKIFORAKIS; Peter FRANKL; Philip BLAKELY; Paul BENNETT; Paul GREENWOOD

    2016-01-01

    The effects of blast waves generated by energetic and non-energetic sources are of continuing interest to the ballistics research community. Modern conflicts are increasingly characterised by asymmetric urban warfare, with improvised explosive devices (IEDs) often playing a dominant role on the one hand and an armed forces requirement for minimal collateral effects from their weapons on the other. These problems are characterised by disparate length-and time-scales and may also be governed by complex physics. There is thus an increasing need to be able to rapidly assess and accurately predict the effects of energetic blast in topologically complex scenarios. To this end, this paper presents a new QinetiQ-developed advanced computational package called EAGLE-Blast, which is capable of accurately resolving the generation, propagation and interaction of blast waves around geometrically complex shapes such as vehicles and buildings. After a brief description of the numerical methodology, various blast scenario simulations are described and the results compared with experimental data to demonstrate the validation of the scheme and its ability to describe these complex scenarios accurately and efficiently. The paper concludes with a brief discussion on the use of the code in supporting the development of algorithms for fast running engineering models.

  6. Simulating geometrically complex blast scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ian G. Cullis

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The effects of blast waves generated by energetic and non-energetic sources are of continuing interest to the ballistics research community. Modern conflicts are increasingly characterised by asymmetric urban warfare, with improvised explosive devices (IEDs often playing a dominant role on the one hand and an armed forces requirement for minimal collateral effects from their weapons on the other. These problems are characterised by disparate length- and time-scales and may also be governed by complex physics. There is thus an increasing need to be able to rapidly assess and accurately predict the effects of energetic blast in topologically complex scenarios. To this end, this paper presents a new QinetiQ-developed advanced computational package called EAGLE-Blast, which is capable of accurately resolving the generation, propagation and interaction of blast waves around geometrically complex shapes such as vehicles and buildings. After a brief description of the numerical methodology, various blast scenario simulations are described and the results compared with experimental data to demonstrate the validation of the scheme and its ability to describe these complex scenarios accurately and efficiently. The paper concludes with a brief discussion on the use of the code in supporting the development of algorithms for fast running engineering models.

  7. ONLINE PUBLISHING CURRENT SCENARIO

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Balasubramanian Thiagarajan

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available This article attempts to unravel the current scenario in online publishing. Advent of internet has brought with it tremendous changes in the publishing industry. What was hither to an industry dominated by publisher has been thrown open to one and sundry. Online publishing has brought with it a reach which was hitherto never been imagined. In the normal course it would take at least a year to publish a manuscript. Online publishing has managed to bring this time down to a few weeks / at most a month. This article attempts to discusses the positives and perils of online publishing scenario.

  8. An electricity-focused economic input-output model: Life-cycle assessment and policy implications of future electricity generation scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marriott, Joe

    The electricity industry is extremely important to both our economy and our environment. We would like to be able to examine the economic, environmental and policy implications of both future electricity scenarios which include advanced generation technologies such as gasified coal, and of the products and processes which will use them, along with the interaction of this industry with the rest of the economy. This work builds upon an existing economic input-output framework, by adding detail about the electricity industry, specifically by differentiating among the various functions of the sector, and the different means of generating power. The mix of electricity consumed at any stage in the life-cycle of a product, process or industrial sector has a significant effect on the associated inventory of emissions. Fossil fuel or nuclear generators, large-scale hydroelectric, and renewable options such as geothermal, wind and solar each have a unique set of issues---both in the production of electricity at the plant and throughout the supply chain. Decision makers need better information regarding the environmental and economic impact of the electricity industry, including full supply chain details---the interaction of the electricity industry with the other 500 sectors of the economy. A systematic method for creating updated state level and sector generation mixes is developed. The results show that most sector mixes are very close to the U.S. average due to geographic dispersion of industries, but that some sectors are different, and they tend to be important raw material extraction or primary manufacturing industries. We then build a flexible framework for creating new sectors, supply chains and emission factors for the generation, transmission and distribution portions of the electricity industry. We look at scenarios of the present and future, for electricity and for particular products, and develop results which show environmental impacts split up by generation

  9. Assessment of coronary artery disease using coronary computed tomography angiography in patients with aortic valve stenosis referred for surgical aortic valve replacement

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Linnea Hornbech; Kofoed, K Fuglsang; Dalsgaard, M;

    2013-01-01

    BACKGROUND: In patients referred for aortic valve replacement (AVR) a pre-surgical assessment of coronary artery disease is mandatory to determine the possible need for additional coronary artery bypass grafting. The diagnostic accuracy of coronary computed tomography angiography (coronary CTA......) was evaluated in patients with aortic valve stenosis referred for surgical AVR. METHODS: Between March 2008 and March 2010 a total of 181 consecutive patients were included. All patients underwent pre-surgical coronary CTA (64- or 320-detector CT scanner) and invasive coronary angiography (ICA). The analyses...... with disagreement between ICA and coronary CTA in univariate analysis. CONCLUSION: In patients with aortic valve stenosis referred for surgical AVR the diagnostic accuracy of coronary CTA to identify significant coronary artery disease is moderate. Coronary CTA may be used successfully in a subset of patients...

  10. Quantification of Scenario Distance within Generic WINNER Channel Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Milan Narandžić

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Starting from the premise that stochastic properties of a radio environment can be abstracted by defining scenarios, a generic MIMO channel model is built by the WINNER project. The parameter space of the WINNER model is, among others, described by normal probability distributions and correlation coefficients that provide a suitable space for scenario comparison. The possibility to quantify the distance between reference scenarios and measurements enables objective comparison and classification of measurements into scenario classes. In this paper we approximate the WINNER scenarios with multivariate normal distributions and then use the mean Kullback-Leibler divergence to quantify their divergence. The results show that the WINNER scenario groups (A, B, C, and D or propagation classes (LoS, OLoS, and NLoS do not necessarily ensure minimum separation within the groups/classes. Instead, the following grouping minimizes intragroup distances: (i indoor-to-outdoor and outdoor-to-indoor scenarios (A2, B4, and C4, (ii macrocell configurations for suburban, urban, and rural scenarios (C1, C2, and D1, and (iii indoor/hotspot/microcellular scenarios (A1, B3, and B1. The computation of the divergence between Ilmenau and Dresden measurements and WINNER scenarios confirms that the parameters of the C2 scenario are a proper reference for a large variety of urban macrocell environments.

  11. Theoretical assessment of the maximum obtainable power in wireless power transfer constrained by human body exposure limits in a typical room scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Xi Lin; De Santis, Valerio; Umenei, Aghuinyue Esai

    2014-07-07

    In this study, the maximum received power obtainable through wireless power transfer (WPT) by a small receiver (Rx) coil from a relatively large transmitter (Tx) coil is numerically estimated in the frequency range from 100 kHz to 10 MHz based on human body exposure limits. Analytical calculations were first conducted to determine the worst-case coupling between a homogeneous cylindrical phantom with a radius of 0.65 m and a Tx coil positioned 0.1 m away with the radius ranging from 0.25 to 2.5 m. Subsequently, three high-resolution anatomical models were employed to compute the peak induced field intensities with respect to various Tx coil locations and dimensions. Based on the computational results, scaling factors which correlate the cylindrical phantom and anatomical model results were derived. Next, the optimal operating frequency, at which the highest transmitter source power can be utilized without exceeding the exposure limits, is found to be around 2 MHz. Finally, a formulation is proposed to estimate the maximum obtainable power of WPT in a typical room scenario while adhering to the human body exposure compliance mandates.

  12. Assessing future scenarios for health care waste management using a multi-criteria decision analysis tool: A case study in the Turkish West Black Sea Region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ciplak, Nesli

    2015-08-01

    The aim of this paper is to identify the best possible health care waste management option in the West Black Sea Region by taking into account economic, social, environmental, and technical aspects in the concept of multi-criteria decision analysis. In the scope of this research, three different health care waste management scenarios that consist of different technology alternatives were developed and compared using a decision-making computer software, called Right Choice, by identifying various criteria, measuring them, and ranking their relative importance from the point of key stakeholders. The results of the study show that the decentralized autoclave technology option coupled with the disposal through land-filling with energy recovery has potential to be an optimum option for health care waste management system, and an efficient health care waste segregation scheme should be given more attention by the authorities in the region. Furthermore, the discussion of the results points out multidisciplinary approach and the equilibrium between social, environmental, economic, and technical criteria. The methodology used in this research was developed in order to enable the decision makers to gain an increased perception of a decision problem. In general, the results and remarks of this study can be used as a basis of future planning and anticipation of needs for investment in the area of health care waste management in the region and also in developing countries that are dealing with the similar waste management problems.

  13. Children and adults exposed to electromagnetic fields at the ICNIRP reference levels: Theoretical assessment of the induced peak temperature increase

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J. Bakker (Jan); M.M. Paulides (Maarten); E. Neufeld; A. Christ (A.); N. Kuster (Niels); G.C. van Rhoon (Gerard)

    2011-01-01

    textabstractTo avoid potentially adverse health effects of electromagnetic fields (EMF), the International Commission on Non-Ionizing Radiation Protection (ICNIRP) has defined EMF reference levels. Restrictions on induced whole-body-averaged specific absorption rate (SAR wb) are provided to keep the

  14. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porter, K.; Jones, Lucile M.; Ross, Stephanie L.; Borrero, J.; Bwarie, J.; Dykstra, D.; Geist, Eric L.; Johnson, L.; Kirby, Stephen H.; Long, K.; Lynett, P.; Miller, K.; Mortensen, Carl E.; Perry, S.; Plumlee, G.; Real, C.; Ritchie, L.; Scawthorn, C.; Thio, H.K.; Wein, Anne; Whitmore, P.; Wilson, R.; Wood, Nathan J.; Ostbo, Bruce I.; Oates, Don

    2013-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey and several partners operate a program called Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) that produces (among other things) emergency planning scenarios for natural disasters. The scenarios show how science can be used to enhance community resiliency. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario describes potential impacts of a hypothetical, but realistic, tsunami affecting California (as well as the west coast of the United States, Alaska, and Hawaii) for the purpose of informing planning and mitigation decisions by a variety of stakeholders. The scenario begins with an Mw 9.1 earthquake off the Alaska Peninsula. With Pacific basin-wide modeling, we estimate up to 5m waves and 10 m/sec currents would strike California 5 hours later. In marinas and harbors, 13,000 small boats are damaged or sunk (1 in 3) at a cost of $350 million, causing navigation and environmental problems. Damage in the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach amount to $110 million, half of it water damage to vehicles and containerized cargo. Flooding of coastal communities affects 1800 city blocks, resulting in $640 million in damage. The tsunami damages 12 bridge abutments and 16 lane-miles of coastal roadway, costing $85 million to repair. Fire and business interruption losses will substantially add to direct losses. Flooding affects 170,000 residents and workers. A wide range of environmental impacts could occur. An extensive public education and outreach program is underway, as well as an evaluation of the overall effort.

  15. Biomass Scenario Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2015-09-01

    The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a unique, carefully validated, state-of-the-art dynamic model of the domestic biofuels supply chain which explicitly focuses on policy issues, their feasibility, and potential side effects. It integrates resource availability, physical/technological/economic constraints, behavior, and policy. The model uses a system dynamics simulation (not optimization) to model dynamic interactions across the supply chain.

  16. Industrial research for transmutation scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Camarcat, Noel; Garzenne, Claude; Le Mer, Joël; Leroyer, Hadrien; Desroches, Estelle; Delbecq, Jean-Michel

    2011-04-01

    This article presents the results of research scenarios for americium transmutation in a 22nd century French nuclear fleet, using sodium fast breeder reactors. We benchmark the americium transmutation benefits and drawbacks with a reference case consisting of a hypothetical 60 GWe fleet of pure plutonium breeders. The fluxes in the various parts of the cycle (reactors, fabrication plants, reprocessing plants and underground disposals) are calculated using EDF's suite of codes, comparable in capabilities to those of other research facilities. We study underground thermal heat load reduction due to americium partitioning and repository area minimization. We endeavor to estimate the increased technical complexity of surface facilities to handle the americium fluxes in special fuel fabrication plants, americium fast burners, special reprocessing shops, handling equipments and transport casks between those facilities.

  17. Preliminary Assessment of the Possible BWR Core/Vessel Damage States for Fukushima Daiichi Station Blackout Scenarios Using RELAP/SCDAPSIM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. M. Allison

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Immediately after the accident at Fukushima Daiichi, Innovative Systems Software and other members of the international SCDAP Development and Training Program started an assessment of the possible core/vessel damage states of the Fukushima Daiichi Units 1–3. The assessment included a brief review of relevant severe accident experiments and a series of detailed calculations using RELAP/SCDAPSIM. The calculations used a detailed RELAP/SCDAPSIM model of the Laguna Verde BWR vessel and related reactor cooling systems. The Laguna Verde models were provided by the Comision Nacional de Seguridad Nuclear y Salvaguardias, the Mexican nuclear regulatory authority. The initial assessment was originally presented to the International Atomic Energy Agency on March 21 to support their emergency response team and later to our Japanese members to support their Fukushima Daiichi specific analysis and model development.

  18. Electrical-Generation Scenarios for China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kypreos, S.; Krakowski, R.A.

    2002-03-01

    The China Energy Technology Program (CETP) used both optimizing and simulation energy- economic-environmental (E3) models to assess tradeoffs in the electricity-generation sector for a range of fuel, transport, generation, and distribution options. The CETP is composed of a range of technical tasks or activities, including Energy Economics Modeling (EEM, optimizations), Electric Sector Simulation (ESS, simulations), Life Cycle Analyses (LCA, externalization) of energy systems, and Multi-Criteria Decision Analyses (MCDA, integration). The scope of CETP is limited to one province (Shandong), to one economic sector (electricity), and to one energy sector (electricity). This document describes the methods, approaches, limitations, sample results, and future/needed work for the EEM ( optimization-based modeling) task that supports the overall goal of CETP. An important tool used by the EEM task is based on a Linear Programming (LP) optimization model that considers 17 electricity-generation technologies utilizing 14 fuel forms (type, composition, source) in a 7-region transportation model of China's electricity demand and supply system over the period 2000-2030; Shandong is one of the seven regions modeled. The China Regional Electricity Trade Model (CRETM) is used to examine a set of energy-environment-economy E3-driven scenarios to quantify related policy implications. The development of electricity production mixes that are optimized under realistically E3 constraints is determined through regional demands for electricity that respond to exogenous assumptions on income (GDP) and electricity prices through respective time-dependent elasticities. Constraints are applied to fuel prices, transportation limits, resource availability, introduction (penetration) rates of specific technology, and (where applicable) to local, regional, and countrywide emission rates of CO{sub 2}, SO{sub 2} and NO{sub x}. Importantly, future inter- regional energy flows are optimized with

  19. Power System Transformation toward Renewables: Investment Scenarios for Germany

    OpenAIRE

    2014-01-01

    We analyze distinctive investment scenarios for the integration of fluctuating renewables in the German power system. Using a combined model for dispatch, transmission, and investment, three different investment options are considered, including gas-fired power plants, pumped hydro storage, and transmission lines. We find that geographically optimized power plant investments dominate in the reference scenarios for 2024 and 2034. In scenarios with decreasedrenewable curtailment, storage and tr...

  20. Assessing the response of maize phenology under elevated temperature scenarios Resposta fenológica do milho em cenários de aumento de temperatura

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nereu Augusto Streck

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study was to simulate the development of maize in elevated temperature scenarios at Santa Maria, RS, Brazil. The developmental cycle of maize was simulated with the Wang and Engel (WE model with genotype-dependent coefficients for the cultivar BRS Missões. The developmental cycle was divided into vegetative phase (from emergence to silking, and reproductive phase (from silking to physiological maturity. Twelve sowing dates throughout the year were considered, resulting in emergences on the day 15 of each month all year round. Climate scenarios used were synthetic time series of 100 years of current climate and with increase in mean air temperature of +1, +2, +3, +4, and +5, with symmetric and asymmetric increases in daily minimum and maximum temperatures. As temperature increased, the number of years in which crop was killed by frost decreased, indicating that if global warming will confirm, the growing season for maize grown in subtropical environment will be longer by the end of this century. Maize vegetative and reproductive development was delayed or hastened depending upon the emergence time of the year, and if the increase in air temperature is symmetric or asymmetric, indicating complex Genotype x Environment interactions and high vulnerability of maize development to climate change.O objetivo deste trabalho foi simular o desenvolvimento da cultura de milho em cenários de aumento de temperatura em Santa Maria, RS, Brasil. O ciclo de desenvolvimento do milho foi simulado com o modelo de Wang e Engel (WE com coeficientes dependentes do genótipo, para a cultivar BRS Missões. O ciclo de desenvolvimento foi dividido em fase vegetativa (da emergência ao espigamento e fase reprodutiva (do florescimento até a maturidade fisiológica. Foram consideradas doze datas de semeadura, resultando a emergência no dia 15 de cada mês durante todo o ano. Os cenários climáticos utilizados foram séries sintéticas de 100 anos do

  1. Three-dimensional data assimilation for ionospheric reference scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerzen, Tatjana; Wilken, Volker; Minkwitz, David; Hoque, Mainul M.; Schlüter, Stefan

    2017-02-01

    The reliable estimation of ionospheric refraction effects is an important topic in the GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite Systems) positioning and navigation domain, especially in safety-of-life applications. This paper describes a three-dimensional ionosphere reconstruction approach that combines three data sources with an ionospheric background model: space- and ground-based total electron content (TEC) measurements and ionosonde observations. First the background model is adjusted by F2 layer characteristics, obtained from space-based ionospheric radio occultation (IRO) profiles and ionosonde data, and secondly the final electron density distribution is estimated by an algebraic reconstruction technique.The method described is validated by TEC measurements of independent ground-based GNSS stations, space-based TEC from the Jason 1 and 2 satellites, and ionosonde observations. A significant improvement is achieved by the data assimilation, with a decrease in the residual errors by up to 98 % compared to the initial guess of the background. Furthermore, the results underpin the capability of space-based measurements to overcome data gaps in reconstruction areas where less GNSS ground-station infrastructure exists.

  2. Assessing carbon stocks, carbon sequestration, and greenhouse-gas fluxes in ecosystems of the United States under present conditions and future scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Zhi-Liang; Stackpoole, Sarah

    2011-01-01

    The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA) requires the U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI) to develop a methodology and conduct an assessment of carbon storage, carbon sequestration, and greenhouse-gas (GHG) fluxes in the Nation's ecosystems. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has developed and published the methodology (U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2010-5233) and has assembled an interdisciplinary team of scientists to conduct the assessment over the next three to four years, commencing in October 2010. The assessment will fulfill specific requirements of the EISA by (1) quantifying, measuring, and monitoring carbon sequestration and GHG fluxes using national datasets and science tools such as remote sensing, and biogeochemical and hydrological models, (2) evaluating a range of management and restoration activities for their effects on carbon-sequestration capacity and the reduction of GHG fluxes, and (3) assessing effects of climate change and other controlling processes (including wildland fires) on carbon uptake and GHG emissions from ecosystems.

  3. Assessing the adaptive capacity of agriculture in the Netherlands to the impacts of climate change under different market and policy scenarios (AgriAdapt project).

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wolf, J.; Reidsma, P.; Schaap, B.F.; Mandryk, M.; Kanellopoulos, A.; Ewert, F.; Oort, van P.A.J.; Angulo, C.; Rumbaur, C.; Lock, R.; Enders, A.; Adenauer, M.; Heckelei, T.; Rötter, R.P.; Fronzek, S.; Carter, T.R.; Verhagen, A.; Ittersum, van M.K.

    2012-01-01

    The AgriAdapt project has developed methodologies that enable (a) the assessment of impacts, risks and resiliencies for agriculture under changes in climatic conditions but also under changes of other drivers (market, technology, policy, etc.) and (b) the evaluation of adaptation strategies at farm

  4. Regional impact assessment of land use scenarios in developing countries using the FoPIA approach: Findings from five case studies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    König, H.J.; Uthes, S.; Schuler, J.; Zhen, L.; Purushothaman, S.; Suarma, U.; Sghaier, M.; Makokha, S.; Helming, K.; Sieber, S.; Chen, L.; Brouwer, F.M.; Morris, J.; Wiggering, H.

    2013-01-01

    The impact of land use changes on sustainable development is of increasing interest in many regions of the world. This study aimed to test the transferability of the Framework for Participatory Impact Assessment (FoPIA), which was originally developed in the European context, to developing countries

  5. Molecular biology from bench-to-bedside - which colorectal cancer patients should be referred for genetic counselling and risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Lars Henrik; Dysager, Lars; Lindebjerg, Jan

    2010-01-01

    was to validate our previously suggested clinically applicable strategy based on molecular characteristics for identifying which patients to refer for genetic counselling. The strategy was validated in an unselected cohort of 287 colorectal cancer patients. All tumours were tested for MLH1, PMS2, MSH2 and MSH6...... with hereditary cancer. It is feasible to perform a molecular screening to select patients for genetic counselling....

  6. Why Do Global Long-term Scenarios for Agriculture Differ? An overview of the AgMIP Global Economic Model Intercomparison

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    von Lampe, Martin [Organization for Ecomonic Co-operation and Development (OECD) (France); Willenbockel, Dirk [Univ. of Sussex, Brighton (United Kingdom); Ahammad, Helal [Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences, Canberra (Australia); Blanc, Elodie [Massachusetts Inst. of Technology (MIT), Cambridge, MA (United States); Cai, Yongxia [Massachusetts Inst. of Technology (MIT), Cambridge, MA (United States); Calvin, Katherine V. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Fujimori, Shinichiro [National Inst. for Environmental Studies (NIES), Tsukuba (Japan); Hasegawa, Tomoko [National Inst. for Environmental Studies (NIES), Tsukuba (Japan); Havlik, Petr [International Inst. for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) (Austria); Heyhoe, Edwina [Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences, Canberra (Australia); Kyle, G. Page [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Lotze-Campen, Hermann [Postdam Inst. for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam (Germany); Mason d' Croz, Daniel [International Food Policy Research Inst., WA (United States); Nelson, Gerald [International Food Policy Research Inst., WA (United States); Univ. of Illinois, Champaign, IL (United States); Sands, Ronald [Economic Research Service (ERS), Washington, DC (United States); Schmitz, Christoph [Postdam Inst. for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam (Germany); Tabeau, Andrzej [Wageningen Univ. and Research Center (Netherlands); Valin, Hugo [International Inst. for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) (Austria); van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique [Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nationas (FAO), Roma (Italy); van Meijl, Hans [Wageningen Univ. and Research Center (Netherlands)

    2013-12-02

    Recent studies assessing plausible futures for agricultural markets and global food security have had contradictory outcomes. Ten global economic models that produce long-term scenarios were asked to compare a reference scenario with alternate socio-economic, climate change and bioenergy scenarios using a common set of key drivers. Results suggest that, once general assumptions are harmonized, the variability in general trends across models declines, and that several common conclusions are possible. Nonetheless, differences in basic model parameters, sometimes hidden in the way market behavior is modeled, result in significant differences in the details. This holds for both the common reference scenario and for the various shocks applied. We conclude that agro-economic modelers aiming to inform the agricultural and development policy debate require better data and analysis on both economic behavior and biophysical drivers. More interdisciplinary modeling efforts are required to cross-fertilize analyses at different scales.

  7. Assessment of Materialism and Reference Group Influence on Preference for Western Branded Fabrics in Maiduguri, Borno State, Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammed Abba

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates how materialism and reference group influence may affect consumers’ preference for western branded fabrics. Data for the study was collected through questionnaire administered on a sample of 26 respondents. The respondents were selected using convenient sampling through snowball from a population of male and female professional workers aged 18 and above. Data collected from the primary source (questionnaire was analyzed using simple percentage. Findings revealed that materialism had no significant influence on their preferences for western branded fabrics. Reference groups, however, significantly influenced respondents’ decision to purchase Western branded fabrics. It was concluded that although some of the behaviors of the sampled group were quite materialistic, they were not enhanced by associations with Western branded fabrics and their related cultural values. Based on the findings, it was recommended that marketers of western brands in Borno state, particularly in the state capital can do well if they adopt a strategy of deliberately targeting and nurturing of their consumers’ reference groups, rather than attempt to position their products on the basis of inherent materialistic values.

  8. Scenarios for the food industry in 2010

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Harmsen, Hanne; Jensen, Birger Boutrup; Sonne, Anne-Mette

    2001-01-01

    Predicting the future is impossible; corporate decision-makers have, however, to decide which competencies to develop precisely on this basis. This article presents the results of a research project on scenario analyses in the Danish food industry. The aim of the study is to look at alternative...... visions of the future of the food industry and to assess their implications for competence requirements. Given the uncertain nature of the environment, food companies cannot rely on today's competencies being sufficient to f