WorldWideScience

Sample records for assessment reference scenario

  1. Reference Scenario Forecasting: A New Approach to Transport Project Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang; Leleur, Steen; Skougaard, Britt Zoëga

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents a new approach to transport project assessment in terms of feasibility risk assessment and reference class forecasting. Normally, transport project assessment is based upon a cost-benefit approach where evaluation criteria such as net present values are obtained. Recent research...... construction cost estimates. Hereafter, a quantitative risk analysis is provided making use of Monte Carlo simulation. This stochastic approach facilitates random input parameters based upon reference class forecasting, hence, a parameter data fit has been performed in order to obtain validated probability...... forecasting (RSF) frame. The RSF is anchored in the cost-benefit analysis (CBA), thus, it provides decision-makers with a quantitative mean of assessing the transport infrastructure project. First, the RSF method introduces uncertainties within the CBA by applying Optimism Bias uplifts on the preliminary...

  2. Assessment of post closure radioactive safety for the Korean reference disposal system: development of scenarios and quantitative assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kang, C. H.; Hwang, Y. S.; Lee, Y. M.

    2005-01-01

    The total system performance assessment (TSPA) on the Korean reference disposal system has been performed for different types of scenarios. Firstly two reference scenarios, the natural discharge and well ones are developed assessed. The natural discharge scenario assumes that a radionuclide is released from a waste container with an average lifetime of 1,000 years by intruding groundwater to a biosphere through a bentonite buffer and a natural barrier composed of a fractured porous rock and a major water conducting feature (MWCF). The well scenario describes that a radionuclide passing through a buffer enters a fractured rock which is intersected with a drinking well. Two scenarios are named as R1 and R2 respectively. The third scenario is for the initial waste container failure case. A waste container is apt to have initial defects during manufacturing and transportation to a deposition hole. The probability function of the ratio of waste container failure is assumed based on the engineering sense. The rest of waste containers are assumed to have full function of isolation of hazardous nuclides during the lifetime. This initial container failure scenario (ICF) has two different variations: one with a lifetime of 1,000 years ana the other with 10,000 years. Two variations are assessed for two different biosphere, natural discharge and well. The forth one is to assess the impact of excavation disturbed zones. Deposition tunnels are excavated by tunnel boring machine (TBM) or controlled blast (CB). The disturbed zone in assumed to be 30 cm and 1 meter for TBN and CB respectively. Six cases are developed for the EDZ scenarios considering all possible combination of changes in permeability a fracture aperture, and a porosity of a fractured rock. The fifth scenario stipulates the change of long term climate (LTC). The ice age assumed to be prevailed again after a few tens of thousand years. The advent of the ice age alters groundwater composition, pathways, and most

  3. No-reference image quality assessment for horizontal-path imaging scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rios, Carlos; Gladysz, Szymon

    2013-05-01

    There exist several image-enhancement algorithms and tasks associated with imaging through turbulence that depend on defining the quality of an image. Examples include: "lucky imaging", choosing the width of the inverse filter for image reconstruction, or stopping iterative deconvolution. We collected a number of image quality metrics found in the literature. Particularly interesting are the blind, "no-reference" metrics. We discuss ways of evaluating the usefulness of these metrics, even when a fully objective comparison is impossible because of the lack of a reference image. Metrics are tested on simulated and real data. Field data comes from experiments performed by the NATO SET 165 research group over a 7 km distance in Dayton, Ohio.

  4. 2009 reference case scenario : Canadian energy demand and supply to 2020 : an energy market assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2009-01-01

    The National Energy Board regulates the construction and operation of interprovincial and international oil and gas pipelines and power lines as well as the tolls and tariffs for the pipelines under its jurisdictions. The import and export of natural gas is also regulated by the NEB. The NEB examined the possible energy futures that might unfold for Canadians up to the year 2020. The factors that affect the supply of crude oil, natural gas, liquefied natural gas, electricity and coal in the short term were examined to determine the outlook for deliverability through 2020. The growing demand for energy was reviewed along with the adequacy of future energy supplies, and related issues of emerging technologies, energy infrastructure and energy exports. This assessment provided separate production outlooks for hydrocarbons, electricity and coal and outlined the key uncertainties to the supply outlook. The likely impact of recent economic, energy and policy trends on energy demand and supply were considered. It was concluded that energy markets in Canada will continue to function well. Energy prices will provide appropriate market signals for the development of energy resources to meet Canadian and export demand. A significant portion of Canadian demand for energy will be met by fossil fuels. However, the demand to move towards greener energy fuels should result in fewer greenhouse gas emissions. 1 tab., 27 figs.

  5. Reference Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bivens-Tatum, Wayne

    2006-01-01

    This article presents interesting articles that explore several different areas of reference assessment, including practical case studies and theoretical articles that address a range of issues such as librarian behavior, patron satisfaction, virtual reference, or evaluation design. They include: (1) "Evaluating the Quality of a Chat Service"…

  6. Reference life cycle assessment scenarios for manure management in the Baltic Sea Regions - An assessment covering six animal production, five BSR countries, and four manure types

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hamelin, Lorie; Baky, A; Cano-Bernal, J

    the manure is applied, specific legislations governing the manure management practices, etc.). Further, it presents a reference manure composition for each of these reference systems, including key parameters such as dry matter, nitrogen (inorganic and total), phosphorus, carbon and volatile solids content......One major pre-condition for assessing a manure management technique in a whole system or LCA-approach is to define a reference system against which this technique can be assessed. This report thus presents and details the establishment of such reference systems, comprising eight different manure...... types (fattening pig slurry, dairy cow slurry, hens manure, bulls deep litter, fattening pig solid manure, dairy cow solid manure, horse manure & broilers manure) and five Baltic Sea Regions (Denmark, Sweden, Finland, Estonia, Poland), for a total of 15 reference systems. It presents, for each...

  7. Biomass Scenario Model Documentation: Data and References

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lin, Y.; Newes, E.; Bush, B.; Peterson, S.; Stright, D.

    2013-05-01

    The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a system dynamics model that represents the entire biomass-to-biofuels supply chain, from feedstock to fuel use. The BSM is a complex model that has been used for extensive analyses; the model and its results can be better understood if input data used for initialization and calibration are well-characterized. It has been carefully validated and calibrated against the available data, with data gaps filled in using expert opinion and internally consistent assumed values. Most of the main data sources that feed into the model are recognized as baseline values by the industry. This report documents data sources and references in Version 2 of the BSM (BSM2), which only contains the ethanol pathway, although subsequent versions of the BSM contain multiple conversion pathways. The BSM2 contains over 12,000 total input values, with 506 distinct variables. Many of the variables are opportunities for the user to define scenarios, while others are simply used to initialize a stock, such as the initial number of biorefineries. However, around 35% of the distinct variables are defined by external sources, such as models or reports. The focus of this report is to provide insight into which sources are most influential in each area of the supply chain.

  8. Identification of reference accident scenarios in SEVESO establishments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Delvosalle, C.; Fievez, C.; Pipart, A.; Fabrega, J. Casal; Planas, E.; Christou, M.; Mushtaq, F.

    2005-01-01

    In the frame of the ESREL special session on ARAMIS project, this paper aims at presenting the work carried out in the first Work Package, devoted to the definition of accident scenarios. This topic is a key-point in risk assessment, and serves as basis for the whole risk quantification. A first part of the work aims at building a Methodology for the Identification of Major Accident Hazards (MIMAH), which is carried out with the development of generic fault and event trees based on a typology of equipment and substances. This work is coupled with an historical analysis of accidents. In a second part, influence of safety devices and policies will be considered, in order to build a Methodology for the Identification of Reference Accident Scenarios (MIRAS). This last one will take into account safety systems and lead to obtain more realistic scenarios

  9. Economic assessment of energetic scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grandjean, Alain; Bureau, Dominique; Schubert, Katheline; Henriet, Fanny; Maggiar, Nicolas; Criqui, Patrick; Le Teno, Helene; Baumstark, Luc; Crassous, Renaud; Roques, Fabien

    2013-09-01

    This publication gathers contributions proposed by different members of the Economic Council for a Sustainable Development (CEDD) on the issue of energy transition, and more precisely on scenarios elaborated with respect to energy transition. A first set of contributions addresses models of energy transition (assessment of scenario costs to reach a factor 4; the issue of de-carbonation of energy consumption; study of ELECsim, a tool to highlight costs of scenarios of evolution of the electric power system). The second part addresses arbitrations and choice assessment (the importance of social and economic impacts of scenarios; challenges related to the joint definition of the discount rate and of the evolution of carbon value in time; the issue of assessment of the integration of renewable energies into the power system)

  10. The Reference Scenarios for the Swiss Emergency Planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hanspeter Isaak; Navert, Stephan B.; Ralph Schulz

    2006-01-01

    For the purpose of emergency planning and preparedness, realistic reference scenarios and corresponding accident source terms have been defined on the basis of common plant features. Three types of representative reference scenarios encompass the accident sequences expected to be the most probable. Accident source terms are assumed to be identical for all Swiss nuclear power plants, although the plants differ in reactor type and power. Plant-specific probabilistic safety analyses were used to justify the reference scenarios and the postulated accident source terms. From the full spectrum of release categories available, those categories were selected which would be covered by the releases and time frames assumed in the reference scenarios. For each nuclear power plant, the cumulative frequency of accident sequences not covered by the reference scenarios was determined. It was found that the cumulative frequency for such accident sequences does not exceed about 1 x 10 -6 per year. The Swiss Federal Nuclear Safety Inspectorate concludes that the postulated accident source terms for the reference scenarios are consistent with the current international approach in emergency planning, where one should concentrate on the most probable accident sequences. (N.C.)

  11. The iTREN-2030 reference scenario until 2030. Deliverable D4

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fiorello, Davide; De Stasio, Claudia; Koehler, Jonathan; Kraft, Markus; Netwon, Sean; Purwanto, Joko; Schade, Burkhard; Schade, Wolfgang; Szimba, Eckhard

    2009-07-01

    The basic objective of iTREN-2030 is to extend the forecasting and assessment capabilities of the TRANS-TOOLS transport model to the new policy issues arising from the technology, environment and energy fields. This is achieved by couplin the TRANS-TOOLS model with three other models, ASTRA, POLES and TREMOVE covering these new policy issues. The TRANS-TOOLS transport network model has been developed to constitute the reference tool for supporting transport policy in the EU and currently is being developed in several European projects. The scenario set-up to be developed in iTREN-2030 has been modified, so that the projects develops a reference scenario and an integrated scenario. For the reference scenario, the three other modelling tools are harmonised with TRANS-TOOLS and made consistent with each other. This results in a coherent scenario for Europe until 2030 for technology, transport, energy, environment and economic development. The integrated scenario will consider the changing framework conditions until 2030, inparticular the policy pressure coming from climate policy and the increasing scarcity of fossil fuels as well as the impact of the financial and economic crisis. Within the iTREN-2030 project, the overall objective of Work Package 4 (WP4) producing tis deliverable is to develop the reference scenario for the quantitative projections using the four modelling tools involved in the project. The main aims of WP4 are to (a) define a consistent framework for using the different tools in an integrated way; (b) calibrate models with exchanged input to a coherent joint reference; (c) implement external input from WP3 and running models for projections; (d) produce output procedures and templates to facilitate assessment in WP5.

  12. Global Water Scarcity Assessment under Post-SRES Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanasaki, N.; Fujimori, S.

    2011-12-01

    A large number of future projections contributed to the fourth Assessment Report of IPCC were based on Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES). Processes toward the fifth Assessment Report are under way, and post-SRES scenarios, called Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP) are being prepared. One of the key challenges of SSP is provision of detailed socio-economic scenarios compared to SRES for impact, adaptation and vulnerability studies. In this study, a comprehensive global water scarcity assessment was conducted, using a state of the art global water resources model H08 (Hanasaki et al., 2008a, 2008b, 2010). We used a prototype of SSP developed by National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan. Two sets of socio economic scenarios and two sets of climate scenarios were prepared to run H08 for the period 2001-2100. Socio-economic scenarios include Business As Usual and High Mitigation Capacity. Climate scenarios include Reference and Mitigation which stabilizes green house gas concentration at a certain level. We analyzed the simulation results of four combinations, particularly focusing on the sensitivity of socio-economic scenarios to major water resources indices.

  13. Risk assessment of complex accident scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kluegel, Jens-Uwe

    2012-01-01

    The use of methods of risk assessment in accidents in nuclear plants is based on an old tradition. The first consistent systematic study is considered to be the Rasmussen Study of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, NRC, WASH-1400. Above and beyond the realm of nuclear technology, there is an extensive range of accident, risk and reliability research into technical-administrative systems. In the past, it has been this area of research which has led to the development of concepts of safety precautions of the type also introduced into nuclear technology (barrier concept, defense in depth, single-failure criterion), where they are now taken for granted as trivial concepts. Also for risk analysis, nuclear technology made use of methods (such as event and fault tree analyses) whose origins were outside the nuclear field. One area in which the use of traditional methods of probabilistic safety analysis is encountering practical problems is risk assessment of complex accident scenarios in nuclear technology. A definition is offered of the term 'complex accident scenarios' in nuclear technology. A number of problems are addressed which arise in the use of traditional PSA procedures in risk assessment of complex accident scenarios. Cases of complex accident scenarios are presented to demonstrate methods of risk assessment which allow robust results to be obtained even when traditional techniques of risk analysis are maintained as a matter of principle. These methods are based on the use of conditional risk metrics. (orig.)

  14. ARAMIS project: A comprehensive methodology for the identification of reference accident scenarios in process industries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Delvosalle, Christian; Fievez, Cecile; Pipart, Aurore; Debray, Bruno

    2006-01-01

    In the frame of the Accidental Risk Assessment Methodology for Industries (ARAMIS) project, this paper aims at presenting the work carried out in the part of the project devoted to the definition of accident scenarios. This topic is a key-point in risk assessment and serves as basis for the whole risk quantification. The first result of the work is the building of a methodology for the identification of major accident hazards (MIMAH), which is carried out with the development of generic fault and event trees based on a typology of equipment and substances. The term 'major accidents' must be understood as the worst accidents likely to occur on the equipment, assuming that no safety systems are installed. A second methodology, called methodology for the identification of reference accident scenarios (MIRAS) takes into account the influence of safety systems on both the frequencies and possible consequences of accidents. This methodology leads to identify more realistic accident scenarios. The reference accident scenarios are chosen with the help of a tool called 'risk matrix', crossing the frequency and the consequences of accidents. This paper presents both methodologies and an application on an ethylene oxide storage

  15. Canada's energy future : reference case and scenarios to 2030

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2007-01-01

    Energy is essential to the comfort and economic prosperity of Canadians. This report highlighted some of the issues that Canada faces with respect to its energy future. The report focused on emerging trends in energy supply and demand, and examined various energy futures that may be available to Canadians up to the year 2030. Three different scenarios were presented: (1) a continuing trends scenario; (2) a triple E scenario in which economic, environmental and energy objectives are balanced; and (3) a fortified islands scenario in which security concerns were coupled with international unrest and protectionist governments. The report determined that energy demand will remain a function of population and economic growth. Automobiles will continue to rely on fossil fuels. Energy efficiency will improve in relation to the effectiveness of government policies, and a move towards natural gas alternatives will occur. However, fossil fuels will remain a dominant source of energy supply. Oil sands production grew in all 3 of the evaluated scenarios. It is expected that total natural gas production will decline and imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) will increase. In all 3 scenarios greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions increased or only slightly declined. A full spectrum of GHG mitigation strategies will need to be implemented so that Canada can meet its target of a 20 per cent reduction in GHGs by 2020. It was concluded that effective policies are needed to optimize Canada's multiple objectives of economic growth, environment sustainability, and development of energy resources. 6 tabs., 118 figs

  16. Sustainability assessment framework for scenarios – SAFS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arushanyan, Yevgeniya, E-mail: yevgeniya.arushanyan@abe.kth.se [KTH Royal Institute of Technology, School of Architecture and the Built Environment, Department of Sustainable Development, Environmental Science and Engineering, Division of Environmental Strategies Research, Drottning Kristinas väg 30, 10044 Stockholm (Sweden); KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Centre for Sustainable Communications (CESC), Lindstedtsvägen 5, 100 44 Stockholm (Sweden); Ekener, Elisabeth; Moberg, Åsa [KTH Royal Institute of Technology, School of Architecture and the Built Environment, Department of Sustainable Development, Environmental Science and Engineering, Division of Environmental Strategies Research, Drottning Kristinas väg 30, 10044 Stockholm (Sweden); KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Centre for Sustainable Communications (CESC), Lindstedtsvägen 5, 100 44 Stockholm (Sweden)

    2017-03-15

    To address current challenges regarding sustainable development and support planning for this form of development, new learning about different possible futures and their potential sustainability implications is needed. One way of facilitating this learning is by combining the futures studies and sustainability assessment (SA) research fields. This paper presents the sustainability assessment framework for scenarios (SAFS), a method developed for assessing the environmental and social risks and opportunities of future scenarios, provides guidelines for its application and demonstrates how the framework can be applied. SAFS suggests assessing environmental and social aspects using a consumption perspective and a life cycle approach, and provides qualitative results. SAFS does not suggest any modelling using precise data, but instead offers guidelines on how to carry out a qualitative assessment, where both the process of assessing and the outcome of the assessment are valuable and can be used as a basis for discussion. The benefits, drawbacks and potential challenges of applying SAFS are also discussed in the paper. SAFS uses systems thinking looking at future societies as a whole, considering both environmental and social consequences. This encourages researchers and decision-makers to consider the whole picture, and not just individual elements, when considering different futures. - Highlights: • The paper presents a new methodological framework for qualitative sustainability assessment of future scenarios with transformative changes. • The framework suggests qualitative assessment with consumption perspective and a life cycle approach. • The paper presents the framework and provides guidelines for its application. • The paper demonstrates on an example how the framework can be applied. • The benefits, drawbacks and challenges of the framework application and the need for further development are discussed.

  17. Sustainability assessment framework for scenarios – SAFS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arushanyan, Yevgeniya; Ekener, Elisabeth; Moberg, Åsa

    2017-01-01

    To address current challenges regarding sustainable development and support planning for this form of development, new learning about different possible futures and their potential sustainability implications is needed. One way of facilitating this learning is by combining the futures studies and sustainability assessment (SA) research fields. This paper presents the sustainability assessment framework for scenarios (SAFS), a method developed for assessing the environmental and social risks and opportunities of future scenarios, provides guidelines for its application and demonstrates how the framework can be applied. SAFS suggests assessing environmental and social aspects using a consumption perspective and a life cycle approach, and provides qualitative results. SAFS does not suggest any modelling using precise data, but instead offers guidelines on how to carry out a qualitative assessment, where both the process of assessing and the outcome of the assessment are valuable and can be used as a basis for discussion. The benefits, drawbacks and potential challenges of applying SAFS are also discussed in the paper. SAFS uses systems thinking looking at future societies as a whole, considering both environmental and social consequences. This encourages researchers and decision-makers to consider the whole picture, and not just individual elements, when considering different futures. - Highlights: • The paper presents a new methodological framework for qualitative sustainability assessment of future scenarios with transformative changes. • The framework suggests qualitative assessment with consumption perspective and a life cycle approach. • The paper presents the framework and provides guidelines for its application. • The paper demonstrates on an example how the framework can be applied. • The benefits, drawbacks and challenges of the framework application and the need for further development are discussed.

  18. Emissions in 2001 conform the reference scenario (GE WLO with high oil price) and including Clean and Efficient

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kroon, P.; Menkveld, M.

    2008-08-01

    This memo shows the calculation of an estimate for the total greenhouse gas emissions in 2011 in the reference scenario (GE WLO is the Dutch abbreviation for Global Economy and Welfare and Environment), including the impact of the Clean and Efficient programme from the assessment of ECN (Energy research Centre of the Netherlands) and MNP (Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency) [nl

  19. Transport project evaluation: feasibility risk assessment and scenario forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang; Leleur, Steen

    2017-01-01

    This paper presents a new approach to transport project assessment in terms of feasibility risk assessment and reference class forecasting. Conventionally, transport project assessment is based upon a Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) where evaluation criteria such as Benefit Cost Ratios (BCR...... on the preliminary construction cost estimates. Hereafter, a quantitative risk analysis is provided making use of Monte Carlo simulation. This approach facilitates random input parameters based upon reference class forecasting, hence, a parameter data fit has been performed in order to obtain validated probability...... Scenario Forecasting (RSF) frame. The RSF is anchored in the cost-benefit analysis; thus, it provides decision-makers with a quantitative mean of assessing the transport infrastructure project. First, the RSF method introduces uncertainties within the CBA by applying Optimism Bias uplifts...

  20. Decision support systems in nuclear emergencies: A scenario-based comparison of domestic and reference tools

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vamanu, D.; Slavnicu, S. D.; Slavnicu, E.; Vamanu, B.

    2004-01-01

    The article reports selective results of a comparison between RODOS - an emerging decision support system for the management of nuclear emergencies in Europe developed by an international research consortium under EEC aegis, and a resident software package developed and maintained for similar purposes at IFIN-HH, Bucharest. Reproducible similarity patterns obtained in the output data distributions provide for simple normalising procedures that may ensure convergent radiological assessments. When properly consolidated on a sufficient scenario casuistry, such procedures could lend a certain resilience to domestic decision support tools over the interim lead time required by the full implementation of RODOS, or other major league, internationally accepted reference systems. (authors)

  1. Assessement of user needs for climate change scenarios in Switzerland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, Andreas; Liniger, Mark; Flückiger-Knutti, Jacqueline

    2016-04-01

    scenarios is, the more important becomes the need of comprehensibility, clarity and support when disseminating new climate scenarios. The survey reveals strongest needs for quantitative information on changes in extremes, an aspect that was handled in a qualitative way only in CH2011. Another cross-sectoral need are physically consistent data in time, space and between several variables. For instance, in agriculture the combination of heat and dryness is an important aspect, while the same is true in the energy sector for the combination of wind speed and global radiation (to assess energy production). The majority of interviewees appreciates to have the new scenarios with respect to the same reference period as in CH2011 due to comparability purposes. The survey also investigated the incorporation of provided scenario uncertainty into the businesses of the users. The survey shows that this largely depends on the type of users: while intensive users often can handle uncertainties, there are a lot of other users that either cannot or purposely do not make use of uncertainty. Results of the user survey will be presented and the consequences for the next generation of Swiss climate change scenarios are discussed.

  2. Multi scenario seismic hazard assessment for Egypt

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mostafa, Shaimaa Ismail; Abd el-aal, Abd el-aziz Khairy; El-Eraki, Mohamed Ahmed

    2018-05-01

    Egypt is located in the northeastern corner of Africa within a sensitive seismotectonic location. Earthquakes are concentrated along the active tectonic boundaries of African, Eurasian, and Arabian plates. The study area is characterized by northward increasing sediment thickness leading to more damage to structures in the north due to multiple reflections of seismic waves. Unfortunately, man-made constructions in Egypt were not designed to resist earthquake ground motions. So, it is important to evaluate the seismic hazard to reduce social and economic losses and preserve lives. The probabilistic seismic hazard assessment is used to evaluate the hazard using alternative seismotectonic models within a logic tree framework. Alternate seismotectonic models, magnitude-frequency relations, and various indigenous attenuation relationships were amended within a logic tree formulation to compute and develop the regional exposure on a set of hazard maps. Hazard contour maps are constructed for peak ground acceleration as well as 0.1-, 0.2-, 0.5-, 1-, and 2-s spectral periods for 100 and 475 years return periods for ground motion on rock. The results illustrate that Egypt is characterized by very low to high seismic activity grading from the west to the eastern part of the country. The uniform hazard spectra are estimated at some important cities distributed allover Egypt. The deaggregation of seismic hazard is estimated at some cities to identify the scenario events that contribute to a selected seismic hazard level. The results of this study can be used in seismic microzonation, risk mitigation, and earthquake engineering purposes.

  3. Scenario-based roadmapping assessing nuclear technology development paths for future nuclear energy system scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Den Durpel, Luc; Roelofs, Ferry; Yacout, Abdellatif

    2009-01-01

    Nuclear energy may play a significant role in a future sustainable energy mix. The transition from today's nuclear energy system towards a future more sustainable nuclear energy system will be dictated by technology availability, energy market competitiveness and capability to achieve sustainability through the nuclear fuel cycle. Various scenarios have been investigated worldwide each with a diverse set of assumptions on the timing and characteristics of new nuclear energy systems. Scenario-based roadmapping combines the dynamic scenario-analysis of nuclear energy systems' futures with the technology roadmap information published and analysed in various technology assessment reports though integrated within the nuclear technology roadmap Nuclear-Roadmap.net. The advantages of this combination is to allow mutual improvement of scenario analysis and nuclear technology roadmapping providing a higher degree of confidence in the assessment of nuclear energy system futures. This paper provides a description of scenario-based roadmapping based on DANESS and Nuclear-Roadmap.net. (author)

  4. IAEA activities related to safety indicators, time frames and reference scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Batandjieva, B.; Hioki, K.; Metcalf, P.

    2002-01-01

    which was completed last year. The project proposed a methodology for the development of reference biospheres which is in line with suggestions of the International Commission for Radiological Protection 81 (ICRP). Its application is illustrated by way of three example biospheres. At present the Agency is continuing the work on development of reference scenarios for waste disposal in order to assist in the development of international agreement on the main principles and concepts for development and use of reference scenarios for use in the development of safety cases and decision making related to waste repositories. (authors)

  5. Finding the Optimum Scenario in Risk-benefit Assessment: An Example on Vitamin D

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Berjia, Firew Lemma; Hoekstra, J.; Verhagen, H.

    2014-01-01

    when changing from the reference to the optimum scenario. Conclusion: The method allowed us to find the optimum serum level in the vitamin D example. Additional case studies are needed to further validate the applicability of the approach to other nutrients or foods, especially with regards...... a method for finding the optimum scenario that provides maximum net health gains. Methods: A multiple scenario simulation. The method is presented using vitamin D intake in Denmark as an example. In addition to the reference scenario, several alternative scenarios are simulated to detect the scenario...... that provides maximum net health gains. As a common health metric, Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALY) has been used to project the net health effect by using the QALIBRA (Quality of Life for Benefit Risk Assessment) software. Results: The method used in the vitamin D example shows that it is feasible to find...

  6. DGEMP-OE (2008) Energy Baseline Scenario. Synthesis report; Scenario energetique de reference DGEMP-OE(2008). Rapport de synthese

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2008-07-01

    A 'Business as usual' or 'Baseline' scenario of energy trends to 2020-2030 is produced by France every four years, as requested by the International Energy Agency in order to update the global scenarios published in its World Energy Outlook. Since the most recent scenario of this type was drawn up in 2003-2004, the time has come to renew the effort for the IEA's next in-depth review of French energy policy. Specifically, the DGEMP seeks to predict the future of France's energy situation assuming that no policies or new measures are taken affecting (i.e. improving or deteriorating) the situation other than those already in place or adopted as of 1 January 2008 (in other words, before measures such as those stemming from the Grenelle Environment Forum). On the other hand, it is assumed that change in the energy system is guided by 'conventional wisdom' according to which political options and behaviours by economic units are expected to be 'reasonable'. As a result, even should its projections prove inappropriate, this cannot be considered a 'worst-case' scenario. Indeed, beyond the IEA, this scenario can be used to establish an MEA (Multilateral Environment Agreement) scenario (based on existing measures) for national communications submitted under the U.N. Climate Convention. The scenarios by the 'Energy' Commission, part of the Centre d'Analyse Strategique (CAS), could have been used, particularly since the consultant who worked with the CAS to develop its scenarios was also commissioned by the DGEMP. However, several considerations argued in favour of proceeding separately: - The CAS scenarios drew on the DGEMP's 2004 baseline scenario, even though certain parameters were updated (in particular energy prices). - Moreover, the concept underpinning the DGEMP baseline scenario is that it should to every extent possible remain constant over time to secure continued consensus on this 'reference

  7. Feature, Event, and Process Screening and Scenario Development for the Yucca Mountain Total System Performance Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barnard, R.; Barr, G.; Burch, P.; Freeze, G.; Rechard, R.; Schenker, A.; Swift, P.

    1999-01-01

    Scenario development has two primary purposes in the design and documentation of post-closure performance assessments in a regulatory setting. First, scenario development ensures a sufficiently comprehensive consideration of the possible future states of the system. Second, scenario development identifies the important scenarios that must be considered in quantitative analyses of the total system performance assessment (TSPA). Section 2.0 of this report describes the scenario development process. Steps in the process are described in Section 2.1, and terms introduced in this section are defined in Section 2.2. The electronic database used to document the process is described in Section 3, and Section 4 provides a summary of the current status of the YMP scenario development work. Section 5 contains acknowledgments, and Section 6 contains a list of the references cited

  8. Assessment of nuclear power scenarios allowing for matrix behavior in radiological impact modeling of disposal scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tronche, E.; Boussier, H.

    2000-01-01

    Under the provisions of the 1991 French radioactive waste management law, various fuel cycle scenarios will be assessed and compared in terms of feasibility, flexibility, cost, and ultimate waste radio-toxic inventory. The latter criterion may be further broken down into 'potential radio-toxic inventory' (the radio-toxic inventory of all the radionuclides produced) and 'residual radio-toxic inventory' (the radionuclide fraction reaching the biosphere after migration from the repository). The innovative scientific contribution of this study is to consider a third type of radio-toxic inventory: the potential radio-toxic inventory after conditioning, i.e. taking into account the containment capacity of the radionuclide conditioning matrices. The matrix fraction subjected to alteration over time determines the potential for radionuclide release, hence the notion of the potential radio-toxic inventory after conditioning. An initial comparison of possible scenarios is proposed by considering orders of magnitude for the radionuclide containment capacity of the disposal matrices and for their mobilization potential. All the scenarios investigated are normalized to the same annual electric power production so that a legitimate comparison can be established for the ultimate wasteform produced per year of operation. This approach reveals significant differences among the scenarios considered that do not appear when only the raw potential radio-toxic inventory is taken into account. The matrix containment performance has a decisive effect on the final impact of a given scenario or type of scenario. Pu recycling scenarios thus reduce the potential radio-toxicity by roughly a factor of 50 compared with an open cycle; the gain rises to a factor of about 300 for scenarios in which Pu and the minor actinides are recycled. Interestingly, the results obtained by the use of a dedicated containment matrix for the minor actinides in a scenario limited to Pu recycling were comparable to

  9. Scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pérez-Soba, Marta; Maas, Rob

    2015-01-01

    We cannot predict the future with certainty, but we know that it is influenced by our current actions, and that these in turn are influenced by our expectations. This is why future scenarios have existed from the dawn of civilization and have been used for developing military, political and economic

  10. Improving risk assessment by defining consistent and reliable system scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Mazzorana

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available During the entire procedure of risk assessment for hydrologic hazards, the selection of consistent and reliable scenarios, constructed in a strictly systematic way, is fundamental for the quality and reproducibility of the results. However, subjective assumptions on relevant impact variables such as sediment transport intensity on the system loading side and weak point response mechanisms repeatedly cause biases in the results, and consequently affect transparency and required quality standards. Furthermore, the system response of mitigation measures to extreme event loadings represents another key variable in hazard assessment, as well as the integral risk management including intervention planning. Formative Scenario Analysis, as a supplement to conventional risk assessment methods, is a technique to construct well-defined sets of assumptions to gain insight into a specific case and the potential system behaviour. By two case studies, carried out (1 to analyse sediment transport dynamics in a torrent section equipped with control measures, and (2 to identify hazards induced by woody debris transport at hydraulic weak points, the applicability of the Formative Scenario Analysis technique is presented. It is argued that during scenario planning in general and with respect to integral risk management in particular, Formative Scenario Analysis allows for the development of reliable and reproducible scenarios in order to design more specifically an application framework for the sustainable assessment of natural hazards impact. The overall aim is to optimise the hazard mapping and zoning procedure by methodologically integrating quantitative and qualitative knowledge.

  11. Methods for Developing Emissions Scenarios for Integrated Assessment Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Prinn, Ronald [MIT; Webster, Mort [MIT

    2007-08-20

    The overall objective of this research was to contribute data and methods to support the future development of new emissions scenarios for integrated assessment of climate change. Specifically, this research had two main objectives: 1. Use historical data on economic growth and energy efficiency changes, and develop probability density functions (PDFs) for the appropriate parameters for two or three commonly used integrated assessment models. 2. Using the parameter distributions developed through the first task and previous work, we will develop methods of designing multi-gas emission scenarios that usefully span the joint uncertainty space in a small number of scenarios. Results on the autonomous energy efficiency improvement (AEEI) parameter are summarized, an uncertainty analysis of elasticities of substitution is described, and the probabilistic emissions scenario approach is presented.

  12. Socio-economic Scenarios in Climate Assessments (IC11). Synthesis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Drunen, M.; Berkhout, F.

    2011-09-01

    It is widely recognised that projections of social and economic futures are circumscribed by irreducible uncertainties and ignorance. A common analytical response is to develop scenarios that map a range of alternative possible outcomes. The application of scenarios in climate assessments in the Netherlands was investigated in this report, focusing on the use of the socio-economic scenarios 'Welvaart en Leefomgeving' (WLO - The Future of the Dutch Built Environment). This research was carried out within the Climate Changes Spatial Planning (CcSP) programme. WLO scenarios have been applied in climate assessment studies. WLO generates figures and data that are useful. Nevertheless we encountered several CcSP projects that did not apply any socio-economic scenarios, whilst this seemed necessary based on their objectives. In general, climate assessments make little sense if socio-economic developments are not taken into account. Interestingly, some of the studies that did apply socio-economic scenarios, picked only one or two of the scenarios generated by WLO. From a theoretical point of view this selective 'shopping' may lead to a tunnel vision, because it is impossible to estimate which scenario is more probable than the others. At the other hand it is often impractical to explore all four scenarios. The time horizon of WLO was in several cases too short for climate assessments. As it is probable that the structure of society has changed significantly by 2040, it is difficult to quantitatively support the storylines as was done in WLO, because many model assumptions are not correct anymore. Possibly it is better to take a backcasting approach for the second half of the century for the purpose of the CcSP programme. The two case studies described in this report provide examples of good practice that are likely to be useful in future projects that deal with scenarios. In addition, this study produced an interactive website (www.climatescenarios.nl) that provides key

  13. Linking global scenarios to national assessments: Experiences from the Resources Planning Act (RPA) Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linda L. Langner; Peter J. Ince

    2012-01-01

    The Resources Planning Act (RPA) Assessment provides a nationally consistent analysis of the status and trends of the Nation's renewable forest resources. A global scenario approach was taken for the 2010 RPA Assessment to provide a shared world view of potential futures. The RPA Assessment scenarios were linked to the global scenarios and climate projections used...

  14. Increasing Interest in Cognitive Psychology Using Scenario-Based Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cormack, Sophie

    2014-01-01

    Students often perceive cognitive psychology as an abstract and difficult subject with little intrinsic interest. When student feedback identified problems with the traditional essay assessment in a cognitive psychology module, action research led to the development of a forensic scenario-based assessment which successfully increased student…

  15. Scenarios for the assessment of urban exposures after radioactive contamination

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silva, D.N.G.; Guimarães, J.R.D.; Rochedo, E.R.R.

    2015-01-01

    Accidents involving radioactive material are not frequent but may include releases of radionuclides to the air, land or waterways. These releases are usually uncontrollable and may lead to doses in the public in excess of the reference levels established by regulations defined by the national regulatory agencies of each country. Although they had occurred sporadically since the last century, it was observed that, after the emergency phase, the public concern is enhanced when they feel that there is an unpreparedness of authorities responsible for remediation actions, due to the lack of definition of strategies to be adopted in the long term after such events. The aim of this work is to describe reference urban scenarios, considering the characteristics observed in residential and free access areas of urban centers. These scenarios were developed based on the counties surrounding the Brazilian nuclear power plant. Considering the counties within 50 km from the nuclear power plant, nine belong to the state of Rio de Janeiro and seven belong to São Paulo state; the highest population densities were observed in five counties of Rio de Janeiro. Based on the different types of residences and outdoor areas observed in these 16 counties, six reference scenarios for urban areas were developed including areas comprised by four types of residential houses (with low, medium and high shielding building material and houses in a row), apartments in buildings, and park areas with lawn and trees. The characteristics of each of these scenarios were raised through Google Earth images considering 1 km 2 of different locations comprised by each type of area defined. In a next step, the information obtained in each scenario shall be used in computer simulations to characterize the effects and consequences on public exposure of the application of decontamination procedures. (authors)

  16. Decommissioning of offshore oil and gas facilities: a comparative assessment of different scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ekins, Paul; Vanner, Robin; Firebrace, James

    2006-06-01

    A material and energy flow analysis, with corresponding financial flows, was carried out for different decommissioning scenarios for the different elements of an offshore oil and gas structure. A comparative assessment was made of the non-financial (especially environmental) outcomes of the different scenarios, with the reference scenario being to leave all structures in situ, while other scenarios envisaged leaving them on the seabed or removing them to shore for recycling and disposal. The costs of each scenario, when compared with the reference scenario, give an implicit valuation of the non-financial outcomes (e.g. environmental improvements), should that scenario be adopted by society. The paper concludes that it is not clear that the removal of the topsides and jackets of large steel structures to shore, as currently required by regulations, is environmentally justified; that concrete structures should certainly be left in place; and that leaving footings, cuttings and pipelines in place, with subsequent monitoring, would also be justified unless very large values were placed by society on a clear seabed and trawling access.

  17. Risk assessment of mitigated domino scenarios in process facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Landucci, Gabriele; Necci, Amos; Antonioni, Giacomo; Argenti, Francesca; Cozzani, Valerio

    2017-01-01

    The propagation of accidents among process units may lead to severe cascading events or domino effects with catastrophic consequences. Prevention, mitigation and management of domino scenarios is of utmost importance and may be achieved in industrial facilities through the adoption of multiple safety layers. The present study was aimed at developing an innovative methodology to address the quantitative risk assessment (QRA) of domino scenarios accounting for the presence and role of safety barriers. Based on the expected performance of safety barriers, a dedicated event tree analysis allowed the identification and the assessment of the frequencies of the different end-point events deriving from unmitigated and partially mitigated domino chains. Specific criteria were introduced in consequence analysis to consider the mitigation effects of end-point scenarios deriving from safety barriers. Individual and societal risk indexes were calculated accounting for safety barriers and the mitigated scenarios that may result from their actions. The application of the methodology to case-studies of industrial interest proved the importance of introducing a specific systematic and quantitative analysis of safety barrier performance when addressing escalation leading to domino effect. - Highlights: • A methodology was developed to account for safety barrier performance in escalation prevention. • The methodology allows quantitative assessment accounting for safety barrier performance. • A detailed analysis of transient mitigated scenarios is allowed by the developed procedure. • The procedure allows accounting for safety barrier performance in QRA of domino scenarios. • An important reduction in the risk due to domino scenarios is evidenced when considering safety barriers.

  18. Beyond eruptive scenarios: assessing tephra fallout hazard from Neapolitan volcanoes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sandri, Laura; Costa, Antonio; Selva, Jacopo; Tonini, Roberto; Macedonio, Giovanni; Folch, Arnau; Sulpizio, Roberto

    2016-04-12

    Assessment of volcanic hazards is necessary for risk mitigation. Typically, hazard assessment is based on one or a few, subjectively chosen representative eruptive scenarios, which use a specific combination of eruptive sizes and intensities to represent a particular size class of eruption. While such eruptive scenarios use a range of representative members to capture a range of eruptive sizes and intensities in order to reflect a wider size class, a scenario approach neglects to account for the intrinsic variability of volcanic eruptions, and implicitly assumes that inter-class size variability (i.e. size difference between different eruptive size classes) dominates over intra-class size variability (i.e. size difference within an eruptive size class), the latter of which is treated as negligible. So far, no quantitative study has been undertaken to verify such an assumption. Here, we adopt a novel Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Analysis (PVHA) strategy, which accounts for intrinsic eruptive variabilities, to quantify the tephra fallout hazard in the Campania area. We compare the results of the new probabilistic approach with the classical scenario approach. The results allow for determining whether a simplified scenario approach can be considered valid, and for quantifying the bias which arises when full variability is not accounted for.

  19. Reference scenarios for deforestation and forest degradation in support of REDD: a review of data and methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Olander, Lydia P; Murray, Brian C; Gibbs, Holly K; Steininger, Marc; Swenson, Jennifer J

    2008-01-01

    Global climate policy initiatives are now being proposed to compensate tropical forest nations for reducing carbon emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD). These proposals have the potential to include developing countries more actively in international greenhouse gas mitigation and to address a substantial share of the world's emissions which come from tropical deforestation. For such a policy to be viable it must have a credible benchmark against which emissions reduction can be calculated. This benchmark, sometimes termed a baseline or reference emissions scenario, can be based directly on historical emissions or can use historical emissions as input for business as usual projections. Here, we review existing data and methods that could be used to measure historical deforestation and forest degradation reference scenarios including FAO (Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations) national statistics and various remote sensing sources. The freely available and corrected global Landsat imagery for 1990, 2000 and soon to come for 2005 may be the best primary data source for most developing countries with other coarser resolution high frequency or radar data as a valuable complement for addressing problems with cloud cover and for distinguishing larger scale degradation. While sampling of imagery has been effectively useful for pan-tropical and continental estimates of deforestation, wall-to-wall (or full coverage) allows more detailed assessments for measuring national-level reference emissions. It is possible to measure historical deforestation with sufficient certainty for determining reference emissions, but there must be continued calls at the international level for making high-resolution imagery available, and for financial and technical assistance to help countries determine credible reference scenarios. The data available for past years may not be sufficient for assessing all forms of forest degradation, but new data sources

  20. Assessment of disruptive scenarios of a Canadian used fuel repository in crystalline rock

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gobien, M.; Garisto, F.; Hunt, N.; Kremer, E.P. [Nuclear Waste Management Organization (NWMO), Toronto, Ontario (Canada)

    2015-06-15

    The NWMO has recently extended its modelling capabilities by performing simulations for four disruptive scenarios that, to date, have not yet been examined in detail. These scenarios complement those considered in an existing postclosure safety assessment for a conceptual geological repository located in a hypothetical crystalline rock formation. The four new disruptive scenarios are: Shaft Seal Failure, Undetected Fault, Open or Poorly Sealed Borehole and Open Borehole Due to Inadvertent Human Intrusion. All simulations are based on the FRAC3DVS-OPG Site-Scale Model. The Site-Scale Model includes a simplified representation of the full repository and a portion of the surrounding sub-regional flow system. All transport simulations are performed with only the radionuclide I-129. Transport rates to the surface and a domestic water supply well are compared to the Reference Case results from an earlier case study documented in Reference. (author)

  1. Assessment of disruptive scenarios of a Canadian used fuel repository in crystalline rock

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gobien, M.; Garisto, F.; Hunt, N.; Kremer, E.P., E-mail: mgobien@nwmo.ca [Nuclear Waste Management Organization, Toronto, ON (Canada)

    2015-07-01

    The NWMO has recently extended its modelling capabilities by performing simulations for four disruptive scenarios that, to date, have not yet been examined in detail. These scenarios complement those considered in an existing postclosure safety assessment for a conceptual geological repository located in a hypothetical crystalline rock formation. The four new disruptive scenarios are: Shaft Seal Failure, Undetected Fault, Open or Poorly Sealed Borehole and Open Borehole Due to Inadvertent Human Intrusion. All simulations are based on the FRAC3DVS-OPG [1] Site-Scale Model [2]. The Site-Scale Model includes a simplified representation of the full repository and a portion of the surrounding sub-regional flow system. All transport simulations are performed with only the radionuclide I-129. Transport rates to the surface and a domestic water supply well are compared to the Reference Case results from an earlier case study documented in Reference [2]. (author)

  2. Assessment of disruptive scenarios of a Canadian used fuel repository in crystalline rock

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gobien, M.; Garisto, F.; Hunt, N.; Kremer, E.P.

    2015-01-01

    The NWMO has recently extended its modelling capabilities by performing simulations for four disruptive scenarios that, to date, have not yet been examined in detail. These scenarios complement those considered in an existing postclosure safety assessment for a conceptual geological repository located in a hypothetical crystalline rock formation. The four new disruptive scenarios are: Shaft Seal Failure, Undetected Fault, Open or Poorly Sealed Borehole and Open Borehole Due to Inadvertent Human Intrusion. All simulations are based on the FRAC3DVS-OPG [1] Site-Scale Model [2]. The Site-Scale Model includes a simplified representation of the full repository and a portion of the surrounding sub-regional flow system. All transport simulations are performed with only the radionuclide I-129. Transport rates to the surface and a domestic water supply well are compared to the Reference Case results from an earlier case study documented in Reference [2]. (author)

  3. Scenario drafting to anticipate future developments in technology assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Retèl Valesca P

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Health Technology Assessment (HTA information, and in particular cost-effectiveness data is needed to guide decisions, preferably already in early stages of technological development. However, at that moment there is usually a high degree of uncertainty, because evidence is limited and different development paths are still possible. We developed a multi-parameter framework to assess dynamic aspects of a technology -still in development-, by means of scenario drafting to determine the effects, costs and cost-effectiveness of possible future diffusion patterns. Secondly, we explored the value of this method on the case of the clinical implementation of the 70-gene signature for breast cancer, a gene expression profile for selecting patients who will benefit most from chemotherapy. Methods To incorporate process-uncertainty, ten possible scenarios regarding the introduction of the 70-gene signature were drafted with European experts. Out of 5 most likely scenarios, 3 drivers of diffusion (non-compliance, technical failure, and uptake were quantitatively integrated in a decision-analytical model. For these scenarios, the cost-effectiveness of the 70-gene signature expressed in Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratios (ICERs was compared to clinical guidelines, calculated from the past (2005 until the future (2020. Results In 2005 the ICER was €1,9 million/quality-adjusted-life-year (QALY, meaning that the 70-gene signature was not yet cost-effective compared to the current clinical guideline. The ICER for the 70-gene signature improved over time with a range of €1,9 million to €26,145 in 2010 and €1,9 million to €11,123/QALY in 2020 depending on the separate scenario used. From 2010, the 70-gene signature should be cost-effective, based on the combined scenario. The uptake-scenario had strongest influence on the cost-effectiveness. Conclusions When optimal diffusion of a technology is sought, incorporating process

  4. Environmental Assessment of Possible Future Waste Management Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yevgeniya Arushanyan

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Waste management has developed in many countries and will continue to do so. Changes towards increased recovery of resources in order to meet climate targets and for society to transition to a circular economy are important driving forces. Scenarios are important tools for planning and assessing possible future developments and policies. This paper presents a comprehensive life cycle assessment (LCA model for environmental assessments of scenarios and waste management policy instruments. It is unique by including almost all waste flows in a country and also allow for including waste prevention. The results show that the environmental impacts from future waste management scenarios in Sweden can differ a lot. Waste management will continue to contribute with environmental benefits, but less so in the more sustainable future scenarios, since the surrounding energy and transportation systems will be less polluting and also because less waste will be produced. Valuation results indicate that climate change, human toxicity and resource depletion are the most important environmental impact categories for the Swedish waste management system. Emissions of fossil CO2 from waste incineration will continue to be a major source of environmental impacts in these scenarios. The model is used for analyzing environmental impacts of several policy instruments including weight based collection fee, incineration tax, a resource tax and inclusion of waste in a green electricity certification system. The effect of the studied policy instruments in isolation are in most cases limited, suggesting that stronger policy instruments as well as combinations are necessary to reach policy goals as set out in for example the EU action plan on circular economy.

  5. A Methodology to Assess UrbanSim Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-09-01

    reconfigurable modules of video , game-based scenarios, digital tutors, and assessments tailored to learners. They incorporate the use of social...deeper levels for student decisions, it becomes increasingly more problematic to verify the desired underlying pedagogy is present (Wang et al...training impact of the training videos associated with the UrbanSim training package. The research team found that students that watched and implemented

  6. Environmental and climate security: improving scenario methodologies for science and risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Briggs, C. M.; Carlsen, H.

    2010-12-01

    Governments and popular discussions have increasingly referred to concepts of ‘climate security’, often with reference to IPCC data. Development of effective methodologies to translate complex, scientific data into risk assessments has lagged, resulting in overly simplistic political assumptions of potential impacts. Climate security scenarios have been developed for use by security and military agencies, but effective engagement by scientific communities requires an improved framework. Effective use of data requires improvement both of climate projections, and the mapping of cascading impacts across interlinked, complex systems. In this research we propose a process for systematic generation of subsets of scenarios (of arbitrary size) from a given set of variables with possible interlinkages. The variables could include climatic changes as well as other global changes of concerns in a security context. In coping with possible challenges associated with the nexus of climate change and security - where deep structural uncertainty and possible irreversible changes are of primary interest - it is important to explore the outer limits of the relevant uncertainties. Therefore the proposed process includes a novel method that will help scenario developers in generating scenario sets where the scenarios are in a quantifiable sense maximally different and therefore best ‘span’ the whole set of scenarios. When downscaled onto a regional level, this process can provide guidance to potentially significant and abrupt geophysical changes, where high uncertainty has often prevented communication of risks. Potential physical changes can then be used as starting points for mapping cascading effects across networks, including topological analysis to identify critically vulnerable nodes and fragile systems, the existence of positive or negative feedback loops, and possible intervention points. Advanced knowledge of both potential geo-physical shifts and related non

  7. Human health impacts for renewable energy scenarios from the EnerGEO Platform of Integrated Assessment (PIA)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lefevre, Mireille; Gschwind, Benoit; Blanc, Isabelle; Ranchin, Thierry; Cofala, Janusz; Fuss, Sabine

    2013-01-01

    This article reports impact results from running the EnerGEO Platform of Integrated Assessment (PIA) related to human health for different scenarios in Europe. The scenarios were prepared within the EnerGEO project. The idea of this European project is to determine how low carbon scenarios, and in particular scenarios with a high share of renewable energy, affect concentrations of air pollutants and as a consequence affect human health. PM 2.5 concentrations were estimated with the IIASA Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) model on a time horizon up to the year 2050 for different scenarios. We analyse here the estimation of the Loss of Life Expectancy due to PM 2.5 concentrations for the Baseline scenario taken as a reference and the Maximum renewable power scenario. (orig.)

  8. Coordinated Development and Deployment of Scenarios for Sustained Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lipschultz, F.; Weaver, C. P.; Leidner, A. K.; Delgado, A.; Grambsch, A.

    2017-12-01

    There has been a clear need for a more coordinated Federal government approach for authoritative, climate-relevant scenarios to support growing demands by decision-makers, to meet stakeholder needs for consistent approaches and guidance, and to better address the needs of the impacts, adaptation and vulnerability community. To begin to satisfy these decision-support needs, in early 2015 the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) began coordinated production of scenario information for use across a suite of USGCRP activities. These have been implemented in the 4th National Climate Assessment (NCA4), the Climate Science Special Report and the Climate Resilience Toolkit (CRT), all of which are intended to help better organize, summarize, and communicate science to decision-makers as they think about our future. First, USGCRP introduced and implemented an explicit risk-framing approach across the entire scenario enterprise to encourage exploration of tail risks. A suite of scenario products was developed framed around three simplified storylines: `Lower', `Higher', and `Upper Bound' departures from current baselines. Second, USGCRP developed future climate information for the U.S. using Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 and RCP 4.5, including a weighted mean of Global Climate Models and adoption of an improved statistical downscaling approach across USGCRP products. Additional variables were derived from the downscaled parameters for use across USGCRP reports and in the CRT's Climate Explorer tool. Third, and given the need to address other tightly-coupled global changes in a more integrated way, a set of population, housing density, and impervious surface projections were developed based on global scenarios. In addition, USGCRP and the National Ocean Council developed scenarios of future sea-level rise and coastal-flood hazard for the U.S. and integrated them into existing Federal capabilities to support preparedness planning. To better convey these

  9. Assessment of environmental impacts following alternative agricultural policy scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bárlund, I; Lehtonen, H; Tattari, S

    2005-01-01

    Abstract Finnish agriculture is likely to undergo major changes in the near and intermediate future. The ifuture policy context can be examined at a general level by strategic scenario building. Computer-based modelling in combination with agricultural policy scenarios can in turn create a basis for the assessments of changes in environmental quality following possible changes in Finnish agriculture. The analysis of economic consequences is based on the DREMFIA model, which is applied to study effects of various agricultural policies on land use, animal production, and farmers' income. The model is suitable for an impact analysis covering an extended time span--here up to the year 2015. The changes in land use, obtained with the DREMFIA model assuming rational economic behaviour, form the basis when evaluating environmental impacts of different agricultural policies. The environmental impact assessment is performed using the field scale nutrient transport model ICECREAM. The modelled variables are nitrogen and phosphorus losses in surface runoff and percolation. In this paper the modelling strategy will be presented and highlighted using two case study catchments with varying environmental conditions and land use as an example. In addition, the paper identifies issues arising when connecting policy scenarios with impact modelling.

  10. Comparative energy and exergy performance assessments of a microcogenerator unit in different electricity mix scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gonçalves, Pedro; Angrisani, Giovanni; Roselli, Carlo; Gaspar, Adélio R.; Gameiro da Silva, Manuel

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: • Experimental and energy–exergy modelling of a 6 kW micro-combined heat and power unit. • Evaluation of energy and exergy efficiencies for performance assessment. • Use of exergy and energy indicators for comparison with a reference system. • Use of different renewables supply options into the electric and heat reference system. • The electric grid mix of Portugal and Italy is used and discussed. - Abstract: The Directive 2004/8/EC on the promotion of cogeneration proposes a comparative indicator based on primary energy savings, neglecting some important thermodynamic aspects, such as exergy. This study aims to compare and discuss the usefulness of a set of complementary indicators for performance assessments of cogeneration systems, concerning thermodynamic principles based on first and second law (the exergy approach). As case study, a 6 kW electric output micro-combined heat and power unit was experimentally tested and a model of the unit was developed in TRNSYS. Considering as reference a set of different heat and electricity scenarios, including the actual electric mixes of Portugal and Italy, the indicators case incon (PES) and Primary and Total Irreversibilities Savings (PIS and TIS), as well as energy and exergy renewability ratios were assessed and discussed. The results show that the use of MCHP has higher advantages for the Italian electric grid, than an equivalent scenario considering the Portuguese electric network as reference. As result, for a particular scenario analysed, PES and PIS have 3% and 6% for Portugal, and 10% and 18% for Italy, respectively. Furthermore, for one particular scenario evaluated, the indicators energetic and exergetic renewability ratios have 23% and 14%, respectively for the Portuguese electric grid, and 19% and 10% for the Italian electric system

  11. Feature, event, and process screening and scenario development for the yucca mountain total system performance assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Swift, P.; Barr, G.; Barnard, R.; Rechard, R.; Schenker, A.; Freeze, G.; Burck, P.

    2001-01-01

    Scenario development has two primary purposes in the design and documentation of postclosure performance assessments in a regulatory setting. First, scenario development ensures a sufficiently comprehensive consideration of the possible future states of the system. Second, scenario development identifies the important scenarios that must be considered in quantitative analyses of the total system performance assessment (TSPA). To ensure clear documentation of the treatment of potentially relevant future states of the system in the Yucca Mountain license application (LA), the US Department of Energy (DOE) has chosen to adopt a scenario development process based on the methodology developed by Cranwell et al. (1990) for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Although the process, described below, has been modified somewhat as a result of experience gained in the last decade, the underlying methodology is consistent with that outlined by the DOE in the 1988 Site Characterization Plan for the Yucca Mountain Project (YMP) (U.S. DOE, 1988). The approach is fundamentally the same as that used in many performance assessments, including the most recent analysis of the Yucca Mountain repository by the NRC (Wescott et al., 1995). The approach has also been used by the DOE for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) (U.S. DOE, 1996), by the Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) of the Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD), and by other radioactive waste programs internationally. Section 2.0 of this report describes the scenario development process. Steps in the process are described in Section 2.1, and terms introduced in this section are defined in Section 2.2. The electronic database used to document the process is described in Section 3, and Section 4 provides a summary of the current status of the YMP scenario development work. Section 5 contains acknowledgments, and Section 6 contains a list of the references cited. (authors)

  12. Scenario simulation based assessment of subsurface energy storage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beyer, C.; Bauer, S.; Dahmke, A.

    2014-12-01

    Energy production from renewable sources such as solar or wind power is characterized by temporally varying power supply. The politically intended transition towards renewable energies in Germany („Energiewende") hence requires the installation of energy storage technologies to compensate for the fluctuating production. In this context, subsurface energy storage represents a viable option due to large potential storage capacities and the wide prevalence of suited geological formations. Technologies for subsurface energy storage comprise cavern or deep porous media storage of synthetic hydrogen or methane from electrolysis and methanization, or compressed air, as well as heat storage in shallow or moderately deep porous formations. Pressure build-up, fluid displacement or temperature changes induced by such operations may affect local and regional groundwater flow, geomechanical behavior, groundwater geochemistry and microbiology. Moreover, subsurface energy storage may interact and possibly be in conflict with other "uses" like drinking water abstraction or ecological goods and functions. An utilization of the subsurface for energy storage therefore requires an adequate system and process understanding for the evaluation and assessment of possible impacts of specific storage operations on other types of subsurface use, the affected environment and protected entities. This contribution presents the framework of the ANGUS+ project, in which tools and methods are developed for these types of assessments. Synthetic but still realistic scenarios of geological energy storage are derived and parameterized for representative North German storage sites by data acquisition and evaluation, and experimental work. Coupled numerical hydraulic, thermal, mechanical and reactive transport (THMC) simulation tools are developed and applied to simulate the energy storage and subsurface usage scenarios, which are analyzed for an assessment and generalization of the imposed THMC

  13. Assessing the Formation of Experience-Based Gender Expectations in an Implicit Learning Scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anton Öttl

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The present study investigates the formation of new word-referent associations in an implicit learning scenario, using a gender-coded artificial language with spoken words and visual referents. Previous research has shown that when participants are explicitly instructed about the gender-coding system underlying an artificial lexicon, they monitor the frequency of exposure to male vs. female referents within this lexicon, and subsequently use this probabilistic information to predict the gender of an upcoming referent. In an explicit learning scenario, the auditory and visual gender cues are necessarily highlighted prior to acqusition, and the effects previously observed may therefore depend on participants' overt awareness of these cues. To assess whether the formation of experience-based expectations is dependent on explicit awareness of the underlying coding system, we present data from an experiment in which gender-coding was acquired implicitly, thereby reducing the likelihood that visual and auditory gender cues are used strategically during acquisition. Results show that even if the gender coding system was not perfectly mastered (as reflected in the number of gender coding errors, participants develop frequency based expectations comparable to those previously observed in an explicit learning scenario. In line with previous findings, participants are quicker at recognizing a referent whose gender is consistent with an induced expectation than one whose gender is inconsistent with an induced expectation. At the same time however, eyetracking data suggest that these expectations may surface earlier in an implicit learning scenario. These findings suggest that experience-based expectations are robust against manner of acquisition, and contribute to understanding why similar expectations observed in the activation of stereotypes during the processing of natural language stimuli are difficult or impossible to suppress.

  14. Nuclear spent fuel management scenarios. Status and assessment report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dufek, J.; Arzhanov, V.; Gudowski, W.

    2006-06-01

    The strategy for management of spent nuclear fuel from the Swedish nuclear power programme is interim storage for cooling and decay for about 30 years followed by direct disposal of the fuel in a geologic repository. In various contexts it is of interest to compare this strategy with other strategies that might be available in the future as a result of ongoing research and development. In particular partitioning and transmutation is one such strategy that is subject to considerable R and D-efforts within the European Union and in other countries with large nuclear programmes. To facilitate such comparisons for the Swedish situation, with a planned phase out of the nuclear power programme, SKB has asked the team at Royal Inst. of Technology to describe and explore some scenarios that might be applied to the Swedish programme. The results of this study are presented in this report. The following scenarios were studied by the help of a specially developed computer programme: Phase out by 2025 with direct disposal. Burning plutonium and minor actinides as MOX in BWR. Burning plutonium and minor actinides as MOX in PWR. Burning plutonium and minor actinides in ADS. Combined LWR-MOX plus ADS. For the different scenarios nuclide inventories, waste amounts, costs, additional electricity production etc have been assessed. As a general conclusion it was found that BWR is more efficient for burning plutonium in MOX fuel than PWR. The difference is approximately 10%. Furthermore the BWR produces about 10% less americium inventory. An ADS reactor park can theoretically in an ideal case burn (transmute) 99% of the transuranium isotopes. The duration of such a scenario heavily depends on the interim time needed for cooling the spent fuel before reprocessing. Assuming 10 years for cooling of nuclear fuel from ADS, the duration will be at least 200 years under optimistic technical assumptions. The development and use of advanced pyro-processing with an interim cooling time of only

  15. Nuclear spent fuel management scenarios. Status and assessment report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dufek, J.; Arzhanov, V.; Gudowski, W. [Royal Inst. of Technology, Stockholm (Sweden). Dept. of Nuclear and Reactor Physics

    2006-06-15

    The strategy for management of spent nuclear fuel from the Swedish nuclear power programme is interim storage for cooling and decay for about 30 years followed by direct disposal of the fuel in a geologic repository. In various contexts it is of interest to compare this strategy with other strategies that might be available in the future as a result of ongoing research and development. In particular partitioning and transmutation is one such strategy that is subject to considerable R and D-efforts within the European Union and in other countries with large nuclear programmes. To facilitate such comparisons for the Swedish situation, with a planned phase out of the nuclear power programme, SKB has asked the team at Royal Inst. of Technology to describe and explore some scenarios that might be applied to the Swedish programme. The results of this study are presented in this report. The following scenarios were studied by the help of a specially developed computer programme: Phase out by 2025 with direct disposal. Burning plutonium and minor actinides as MOX in BWR. Burning plutonium and minor actinides as MOX in PWR. Burning plutonium and minor actinides in ADS. Combined LWR-MOX plus ADS. For the different scenarios nuclide inventories, waste amounts, costs, additional electricity production etc have been assessed. As a general conclusion it was found that BWR is more efficient for burning plutonium in MOX fuel than PWR. The difference is approximately 10%. Furthermore the BWR produces about 10% less americium inventory. An ADS reactor park can theoretically in an ideal case burn (transmute) 99% of the transuranium isotopes. The duration of such a scenario heavily depends on the interim time needed for cooling the spent fuel before reprocessing. Assuming 10 years for cooling of nuclear fuel from ADS, the duration will be at least 200 years under optimistic technical assumptions. The development and use of advanced pyro-processing with an interim cooling time of only

  16. Human scenarios for the screening assessment. Columbia River Comprehensive Impact Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Napier, B.A.; Harper, B.L.; Lane, N.K.; Strenge, D.L.; Spivey, R.B.

    1996-03-01

    Because of past nuclear production operations along the Columbia River, there is intense public and tribal interest in assessing any residual Hanford Site related contamination along the river from the Hanford Reach to the Pacific Ocean. The Columbia River Impact Assessment (CRCIA) was proposed to address these concerns. The assessment of the Columbia River is being conducted in phases. The initial phase is a screening assessment of risk, which addresses current environmental conditions for a range of potential uses. One component of the screening assessment estimates the risk from contaminants in the Columbia River to humans. Because humans affected by the Columbia river are involved in a wide range of activities, various scenarios have been developed on which to base the risk assessments. The scenarios illustrate the range of activities possible by members of the public coming in contact with the Columbia River so that the impact of contaminants in the river on human health can be assessed. Each scenario illustrates particular activity patterns by a specific group. Risk will be assessed at the screening level for each scenario. This report defines the scenarios and the exposure factors that will be the basis for estimating the potential range of risk to human health from Hanford-derived radioactive as well as non-radioactive contaminants associated with the Columbia River

  17. Human scenarios for the screening assessment. Columbia River Comprehensive Impact Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Napier, B.A.; Harper, B.L.; Lane, N.K.; Strenge, D.L.; Spivey, R.B.

    1996-03-01

    Because of past nuclear production operations along the Columbia River, there is intense public and tribal interest in assessing any residual Hanford Site related contamination along the river from the Hanford Reach to the Pacific Ocean. The Columbia River Impact Assessment (CRCIA) was proposed to address these concerns. The assessment of the Columbia River is being conducted in phases. The initial phase is a screening assessment of risk, which addresses current environmental conditions for a range of potential uses. One component of the screening assessment estimates the risk from contaminants in the Columbia River to humans. Because humans affected by the Columbia river are involved in a wide range of activities, various scenarios have been developed on which to base the risk assessments. The scenarios illustrate the range of activities possible by members of the public coming in contact with the Columbia River so that the impact of contaminants in the river on human health can be assessed. Each scenario illustrates particular activity patterns by a specific group. Risk will be assessed at the screening level for each scenario. This report defines the scenarios and the exposure factors that will be the basis for estimating the potential range of risk to human health from Hanford-derived radioactive as well as non-radioactive contaminants associated with the Columbia River.

  18. Project SAFE. Update of the SFR-1 safety assessment. Phase 1. Appendix A2: Scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Skagius, K.; Wiborgh, M.

    1998-01-01

    This appendix gives a short description of the scenario methodology adopted in the previous safety assessment of SFR. Since then new methodologies for developing structured descriptions of how processes and interactions between processes affect the evolution of a repository system. Two such methods are briefly described. These methods are very similar, but they differ in the way the system is graphically structured. One of the methods is based on Process Influence Diagrams, PID, and the other on Interaction matrices. It is proposed that the method based on Interaction matrices is used for the scenario work in project SAFE. The main reason for this is that the method already has been applied by SKB, which means that it will be possible to use already existing procedures and documentation systems. The proposed procedure involves the development of Interaction matrices for a defined Reference scenario and the use of these matrices to illustrate the effect of different Scenario initiating FEPs. The proposed procedure is described in this appendix

  19. A comparison between the example reference biosphere model ERB 2B and a process-based model: simulation of a natural release scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almahayni, T

    2014-12-01

    The BIOMASS methodology was developed with the objective of constructing defensible assessment biospheres for assessing potential radiological impacts of radioactive waste repositories. To this end, a set of Example Reference Biospheres were developed to demonstrate the use of the methodology and to provide an international point of reference. In this paper, the performance of the Example Reference Biosphere model ERB 2B associated with the natural release scenario, discharge of contaminated groundwater to the surface environment, was evaluated by comparing its long-term projections of radionuclide dynamics and distribution in a soil-plant system to those of a process-based, transient advection-dispersion model (AD). The models were parametrised with data characteristic of a typical rainfed winter wheat crop grown on a sandy loam soil under temperate climate conditions. Three safety-relevant radionuclides, (99)Tc, (129)I and (237)Np with different degree of sorption were selected for the study. Although the models were driven by the same hydraulic (soil moisture content and water fluxes) and radiological (Kds) input data, their projections were remarkably different. On one hand, both models were able to capture short and long-term variation in activity concentration in the subsoil compartment. On the other hand, the Reference Biosphere model did not project any radionuclide accumulation in the topsoil and crop compartments. This behaviour would underestimate the radiological exposure under natural release scenarios. The results highlight the potential role deep roots play in soil-to-plant transfer under a natural release scenario where radionuclides are released into the subsoil. When considering the relative activity and root depth profiles within the soil column, much of the radioactivity was taken up into the crop from the subsoil compartment. Further improvements were suggested to address the limitations of the Reference Biosphere model presented in this paper

  20. Sensitivity assessment of fuel performance codes for LOCA accident scenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Abe, Alfredo; Gomes, Daniel; Silva, Antonio Teixeira e; Muniz, Rafael O.R. [Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares (IPEN/CNEN-SP), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil); Giovedi, Claudia; Martins, Marcelo, E-mail: ayabe@ipen.br, E-mail: claudia.giovedi@labrisco.usp.br [Universidade de Sao Paulo (LABRISCO/USP), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil). Lab. de Análise, Avaliação e Gerenciamento de Risco

    2017-07-01

    FRAPCON code predicts fuel rod performance in LWR (Light Water Reactor) by modeling fuel responses under normal operating conditions and anticipated operational occurrences; FRAPTRAN code is applied for fuel transient under fast transient and accident conditions. The codes are well known and applied for different purposes and one of the use is to address sensitivity analysis considering fuel design parameters associated to fabrication, moreover can address the effect of physical models bias. The objective of this work was to perform an assessment of fuel manufacturing parameters tolerances and fuel models bias using FRAPCON and FRAPTRAN codes for Loss of Coolant Accident (LOCA) scenario. The preliminary analysis considered direct approach taken into account most relevant manufacturing tolerances (lower and upper bounds) related to design parameters and physical models bias without considering their statistical distribution. The simulations were carried out using the data available in the open literature related to the series of LOCA experiment performed at the Halden reactor (specifically IFA-650.5). The manufacturing tolerances associated to design parameters considered in this paper were: enrichment, cladding thickness, pellet diameter, pellet density, and filling gas pressure. The physical models considered were: fuel thermal expansion, fission gas release, fuel swelling, irradiation creep, cladding thermal expansion, cladding corrosion, and cladding hydrogen pickup. The results obtained from sensitivity analysis addressed the impact of manufacturing tolerances and physical models in the fuel cladding burst time observed for the IFA-650.5 experiment. (author)

  1. Sensitivity assessment of fuel performance codes for LOCA accident scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abe, Alfredo; Gomes, Daniel; Silva, Antonio Teixeira e; Muniz, Rafael O.R.; Giovedi, Claudia; Martins, Marcelo

    2017-01-01

    FRAPCON code predicts fuel rod performance in LWR (Light Water Reactor) by modeling fuel responses under normal operating conditions and anticipated operational occurrences; FRAPTRAN code is applied for fuel transient under fast transient and accident conditions. The codes are well known and applied for different purposes and one of the use is to address sensitivity analysis considering fuel design parameters associated to fabrication, moreover can address the effect of physical models bias. The objective of this work was to perform an assessment of fuel manufacturing parameters tolerances and fuel models bias using FRAPCON and FRAPTRAN codes for Loss of Coolant Accident (LOCA) scenario. The preliminary analysis considered direct approach taken into account most relevant manufacturing tolerances (lower and upper bounds) related to design parameters and physical models bias without considering their statistical distribution. The simulations were carried out using the data available in the open literature related to the series of LOCA experiment performed at the Halden reactor (specifically IFA-650.5). The manufacturing tolerances associated to design parameters considered in this paper were: enrichment, cladding thickness, pellet diameter, pellet density, and filling gas pressure. The physical models considered were: fuel thermal expansion, fission gas release, fuel swelling, irradiation creep, cladding thermal expansion, cladding corrosion, and cladding hydrogen pickup. The results obtained from sensitivity analysis addressed the impact of manufacturing tolerances and physical models in the fuel cladding burst time observed for the IFA-650.5 experiment. (author)

  2. Representative Agricultural Pathways and Scenarios for Regional Integrated Assessment of Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability, and Adaptation. 5; Chapter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valdivia, Roberto O.; Antle, John M.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Ruane, Alexander C.; Vervoort, Joost; Ashfaq, Muhammad; Hathie, Ibrahima; Tui, Sabine Homann-Kee; Mulwa, Richard; Nhemachena, Charles; hide

    2015-01-01

    The global change research community has recognized that new pathway and scenario concepts are needed to implement impact and vulnerability assessment where precise prediction is not possible, and also that these scenarios need to be logically consistent across local, regional, and global scales. For global climate models, representative concentration pathways (RCPs) have been developed that provide a range of time-series of atmospheric greenhouse-gas concentrations into the future. For impact and vulnerability assessment, new socio-economic pathway and scenario concepts have also been developed, with leadership from the Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC).This chapter presents concepts and methods for development of regional representative agricultural pathways (RAOs) and scenarios that can be used for agricultural model intercomparison, improvement, and impact assessment in a manner consistent with the new global pathways and scenarios. The development of agriculture-specific pathways and scenarios is motivated by the need for a protocol-based approach to climate impact, vulnerability, and adaptation assessment. Until now, the various global and regional models used for agricultural-impact assessment have been implemented with individualized scenarios using various data and model structures, often without transparent documentation, public availability, and consistency across disciplines. These practices have reduced the credibility of assessments, and also hampered the advancement of the science through model intercomparison, improvement, and synthesis of model results across studies. The recognition of the need for better coordination among the agricultural modeling community, including the development of standard reference scenarios with adequate agriculture-specific detail led to the creation of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) in 2010. The development of RAPs is one of the cross-cutting themes in AgMIP's work

  3. Assessment of riverine load of contaminants to European seas under policy implementation scenarios: an example with 3 pilot substances.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marinov, Dimitar; Pistocchi, Alberto; Trombetti, Marco; Bidoglio, Giovanni

    2014-01-01

    An evaluation of conventional emission scenarios is carried out targeting a possible impact of European Union (EU) policies on riverine loads to the European seas for 3 pilot pollutants: lindane, trifluralin, and perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS). The policy scenarios are investigated to the time horizon of year 2020 starting from chemical-specific reference conditions and considering different types of regulatory measures including business as usual (BAU), current trend (CT), partial implementation (PI), or complete ban (PI ban) of emissions. The scenario analyses show that the model-estimated lindane load of 745 t to European seas in 1995, based on the official emission data, would be reduced by 98.3% to approximately 12.5 t in 2005 (BAU scenario), 10 years after the start of the EU regulation of this chemical. The CT and PI ban scenarios indicate a reduction of sea loads of lindane in 2020 by 74% and 95%, respectively, when compared to the BAU estimate. For trifluralin, an annual load of approximately 61.7 t is estimated for the baseline year 2003 (BAU scenario), although the applied conservative assumptions related to pesticide use data availability in Europe. Under the PI (ban) scenario, assuming only small residual emissions of trifluralin, we estimate a sea loading of approximately 0.07 t/y. For PFOS, the total sea load from all European countries is estimated at approximately 5.8 t/y referred to 2007 (BAU scenario). Reducing the total load of PFOS below 1 t/y requires emissions to be reduced by 84%. The analysis of conventional scenarios or scenario typologies for emissions of contaminants using simple spatially explicit GIS-based models is suggested as a viable, affordable exercise that may support the assessment of implementation of policies and the identification or negotiation of emission reduction targets. © 2013 SETAC.

  4. Review of scenario selection approaches for performance assessment of high-level waste repositories and related issues

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Banano, E.J.; Baca, R.G.

    1995-08-01

    The selection of scenarios representing plausible realizations of the future conditions-with associated probabilities of occurrence-that can affect the long-term performance of a high-level radioactive waste (HLW) repository is the commonly used method for treating the uncertainty in the prediction of the future states of the system. This method, conventionally referred to as the ''scenario approach,'' while common is not the only method to deal with this uncertainty; other method ''ch as the environmental simulation approach (ESA), have also been proposed. Two of the difficulties with the scenario approach are the lack of uniqueness in the definition of the term ''scenario'' and the lack of uniqueness in the approach to formulate scenarios, which relies considerably on subjective judgments. Consequently, it is difficult to assure that a complete and unique set of scenarios can be defined for use in a performance assessment. Because scenarios are key to the determination of the long-term performance of the repository system, this lack of uniqueness can present a considerable challenge when attempting to reconcile the set of scenarios, and their level of detail, obtained using different approaches, particularly among proponents and regulators of a HLW repository

  5. Review of scenario selection approaches for performance assessment of high-level waste repositories and related issues.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Banano, E.J. [Beta Corporation International, Albuquerque, NM (United States); Baca, R.G. [Southwest Research Inst., San Antonio, TX (United States). Center for Nuclear Waste Regulatory Analyses

    1995-08-01

    The selection of scenarios representing plausible realizations of the future conditions-with associated probabilities of occurrence-that can affect the long-term performance of a high-level radioactive waste (HLW) repository is the commonly used method for treating the uncertainty in the prediction of the future states of the system. This method, conventionally referred to as the ``scenario approach,`` while common is not the only method to deal with this uncertainty; other method ``ch as the environmental simulation approach (ESA), have also been proposed. Two of the difficulties with the scenario approach are the lack of uniqueness in the definition of the term ``scenario`` and the lack of uniqueness in the approach to formulate scenarios, which relies considerably on subjective judgments. Consequently, it is difficult to assure that a complete and unique set of scenarios can be defined for use in a performance assessment. Because scenarios are key to the determination of the long-term performance of the repository system, this lack of uniqueness can present a considerable challenge when attempting to reconcile the set of scenarios, and their level of detail, obtained using different approaches, particularly among proponents and regulators of a HLW repository.

  6. Power generation scenarios for Nigeria: An environmental and cost assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gujba, H.; Mulugetta, Y.; Azapagic, A.

    2011-01-01

    Exploratory scenarios for the power sector in Nigeria are analysed in this paper using possible pathways within the Nigerian context and then compared against the Government's power expansion plan in the short to medium term. They include two fossil-fuel (FF and CCGT) and two sustainable-development-driven scenarios (SD1 and SD2). The results from the FF scenarios indicate this is the preferred outcome if the aim is to expand electricity access at the lowest capital costs. However, the annual costs and environmental impacts increase significantly as a consequence. The SD1 scenario, characterised by increased penetration of renewables, leads to a reduction of a wide range of environmental impacts while increasing the annual costs slightly. The SD2 scenario, also with an increased share of renewables, is preferred if the aim is to reduce GHG emissions; however, this comes at an increased annual cost. Both the SD1 and SD2 scenarios also show significant increases in the capital investment compared to the Government's plans. These results can be used to help inform future policy in the Nigerian electricity sector by showing explicitly the range of possible trade-offs between environmental impacts and economic costs both in the short and long terms. - Research Highlights: →The power sector in Nigeria is set to grow significantly in near future. →Power sector scenarios are constructed and studied using LCA and economic analysis methods and then compared against the Government's plans. →These include two fossil-fuel and two sustainable-development-driven scenarios. →The results explicitly show the trade-offs between environmental impacts and costs. →Following the fossil fuel paths will reduce capital costs but increase environmental impacts. The renewable energy paths will reduce some environmental impacts but increase the capital costs.

  7. Temperature-based modeling of reference evapotranspiration using several artificial intelligence models: application of different modeling scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanikhani, Hadi; Kisi, Ozgur; Maroufpoor, Eisa; Yaseen, Zaher Mundher

    2018-02-01

    The establishment of an accurate computational model for predicting reference evapotranspiration (ET0) process is highly essential for several agricultural and hydrological applications, especially for the rural water resource systems, water use allocations, utilization and demand assessments, and the management of irrigation systems. In this research, six artificial intelligence (AI) models were investigated for modeling ET0 using a small number of climatic data generated from the minimum and maximum temperatures of the air and extraterrestrial radiation. The investigated models were multilayer perceptron (MLP), generalized regression neural networks (GRNN), radial basis neural networks (RBNN), integrated adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems with grid partitioning and subtractive clustering (ANFIS-GP and ANFIS-SC), and gene expression programming (GEP). The implemented monthly time scale data set was collected at the Antalya and Isparta stations which are located in the Mediterranean Region of Turkey. The Hargreaves-Samani (HS) equation and its calibrated version (CHS) were used to perform a verification analysis of the established AI models. The accuracy of validation was focused on multiple quantitative metrics, including root mean squared error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), correlation coefficient (R 2), coefficient of residual mass (CRM), and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NS). The results of the conducted models were highly practical and reliable for the investigated case studies. At the Antalya station, the performance of the GEP and GRNN models was better than the other investigated models, while the performance of the RBNN and ANFIS-SC models was best compared to the other models at the Isparta station. Except for the MLP model, all the other investigated models presented a better performance accuracy compared to the HS and CHS empirical models when applied in a cross-station scenario. A cross-station scenario examination implies the

  8. Consequence Assessment for Potential Scenarios of Radiological Terrorists Events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shin, Hyeongki; Kim, Juyoul

    2007-01-01

    Radiological dispersal device (RDD) means any method used to deliberately disperse radioactive material to create terror or harm. Dirty bomb is an example of RDD, which usually consists of radioactive material and unconventional explosive. Dirty bomb was a problem long before September 11, 2001. In 1987, the Iraqi government tested a one-ton radiological bomb. The Iraqi tests confirmed that a dirty bomb is not effective as weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and that its main value is as a psychological weapon. In 1995, Chechen rebels buried a dirty bomb in a park in Moscow threatening to detonate one in the future if their demands were not met. Another good example of potential dirty bomb effects was an incident in Goiania, Brazil on September 18, 1987, where an orphaned medical source containing 1,375 Ci of Cs-137 resulted the death of four people and extensive environmental contamination. The purposes of radiological terrorists events are not to destroy or damage the target but to disperse radioactivity in the environment. They inflict panic on a public and economic damage by disruption of business. They also have influence on enormous clean-up costs by spreading radioactive contamination including secondary impacts on water supply reservoirs. Generally, two major long-term concerns following a RDD are human health and economic impacts. In this study, we developed potential scenarios of radiological terrorists events and performed their radiological consequence assessments in terms of total effective dose equivalent (TEDE), projected cumulative external and internal dose, and ground deposition of radioactivity

  9. Consequence Assessment for Potential Scenarios of Radiological Terrorists Events

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shin, Hyeongki [Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Juyoul [Seoul National University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2007-07-01

    Radiological dispersal device (RDD) means any method used to deliberately disperse radioactive material to create terror or harm. Dirty bomb is an example of RDD, which usually consists of radioactive material and unconventional explosive. Dirty bomb was a problem long before September 11, 2001. In 1987, the Iraqi government tested a one-ton radiological bomb. The Iraqi tests confirmed that a dirty bomb is not effective as weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and that its main value is as a psychological weapon. In 1995, Chechen rebels buried a dirty bomb in a park in Moscow threatening to detonate one in the future if their demands were not met. Another good example of potential dirty bomb effects was an incident in Goiania, Brazil on September 18, 1987, where an orphaned medical source containing 1,375 Ci of Cs-137 resulted the death of four people and extensive environmental contamination. The purposes of radiological terrorists events are not to destroy or damage the target but to disperse radioactivity in the environment. They inflict panic on a public and economic damage by disruption of business. They also have influence on enormous clean-up costs by spreading radioactive contamination including secondary impacts on water supply reservoirs. Generally, two major long-term concerns following a RDD are human health and economic impacts. In this study, we developed potential scenarios of radiological terrorists events and performed their radiological consequence assessments in terms of total effective dose equivalent (TEDE), projected cumulative external and internal dose, and ground deposition of radioactivity.

  10. Scenario Analysis for the Safety Assessment of Nuclear Waste Repositories: A Critical Review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tosoni, Edoardo; Salo, Ahti; Zio, Enrico

    2018-04-01

    A major challenge in scenario analysis for the safety assessment of nuclear waste repositories pertains to the comprehensiveness of the set of scenarios selected for assessing the safety of the repository. Motivated by this challenge, we discuss the aspects of scenario analysis relevant to comprehensiveness. Specifically, we note that (1) it is necessary to make it clear why scenarios usually focus on a restricted set of features, events, and processes; (2) there is not yet consensus on the interpretation of comprehensiveness for guiding the generation of scenarios; and (3) there is a need for sound approaches to the treatment of epistemic uncertainties. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  11. Data supporting the comparative life cycle assessment of different municipal solid waste management scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ali Rajaeifar, Mohammad; Tabatabaei, Meisam; Ghanavati, Hossein

    2015-01-01

    Environmental assessment of municipal solid waste (MSW) management scenarios would help to select eco-friendly scenarios. In this study, the inventory data in support of life cycle assessment of different MSW are presented. The scenarios were defined as: anaerobic digestion (AD, Sc-0), landfilling combined with composting (Sc-1), incineration (Sc-2), incineration combined with composting (Sc-3), and AD combined with incineration (Sc-4). The current article contains flowcharts of the different scenarios. Additionally, six supplementary files including inventory data on the different scenarios, data on the different damage assessment categories, normalization, and single scores are presented (Supplementary files 1–6). The analysis of the different scenarios revealed that the most eco-friendly scenario to be implemented in the future would be the combination of AD and incineration (Sc-4). PMID:26217743

  12. Data supporting the comparative life cycle assessment of different municipal solid waste management scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Ali Rajaeifar

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Environmental assessment of municipal solid waste (MSW management scenarios would help to select eco-friendly scenarios. In this study, the inventory data in support of life cycle assessment of different MSW are presented. The scenarios were defined as: anaerobic digestion (AD, Sc-0, landfilling combined with composting (Sc-1, incineration (Sc-2, incineration combined with composting (Sc-3, and AD combined with incineration (Sc-4. The current article contains flowcharts of the different scenarios. Additionally, six supplementary files including inventory data on the different scenarios, data on the different damage assessment categories, normalization, and single scores are presented (Supplementary files 1–6. The analysis of the different scenarios revealed that the most eco-friendly scenario to be implemented in the future would be the combination of AD and incineration (Sc-4.

  13. Validity Evidence for a Serious Game to Assess Performance on Critical Pediatric Emergency Medicine Scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerard, James M; Scalzo, Anthony J; Borgman, Matthew A; Watson, Christopher M; Byrnes, Chelsie E; Chang, Todd P; Auerbach, Marc; Kessler, David O; Feldman, Brian L; Payne, Brian S; Nibras, Sohail; Chokshi, Riti K; Lopreiato, Joseph O

    2018-01-26

    We developed a first-person serious game, PediatricSim, to teach and assess performances on seven critical pediatric scenarios (anaphylaxis, bronchiolitis, diabetic ketoacidosis, respiratory failure, seizure, septic shock, and supraventricular tachycardia). In the game, players are placed in the role of a code leader and direct patient management by selecting from various assessment and treatment options. The objective of this study was to obtain supportive validity evidence for the PediatricSim game scores. Game content was developed by 11 subject matter experts and followed the American Heart Association's 2011 Pediatric Advanced Life Support Provider Manual and other authoritative references. Sixty subjects with three different levels of experience were enrolled to play the game. Before game play, subjects completed a 40-item written pretest of knowledge. Game scores were compared between subject groups using scoring rubrics developed for the scenarios. Validity evidence was established and interpreted according to Messick's framework. Content validity was supported by a game development process that involved expert experience, focused literature review, and pilot testing. Subjects rated the game favorably for engagement, realism, and educational value. Interrater agreement on game scoring was excellent (intraclass correlation coefficient = 0.91, 95% confidence interval = 0.89-0.9). Game scores were higher for attendings followed by residents then medical students (Pc game and written test scores (r = 0.84, P game scores to assess knowledge of pediatric emergency medicine resuscitation.

  14. Seed production scenario in Maharashtra with special reference to mutant crop varieties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raut, R.S.

    2001-01-01

    Several mutant varieties of different crops have been developed by the Bhabha Atomic Research Centre, Mumbai during last two decades and released for cultivation for Maharashtra and other states of the country. The Maharashtra State Seed Corporation (MSSC) has undertaken the seed production of the mutant varieties released for the Maharashtra state. There has been a growing demand of some mutant varieties especially TAU-1 of black gram and TAG-24 of ground nut by the farmers of various states. The MSSC has been meeting the demand of the farmers of Maharashtra as well as of other states of the country for these varieties for last several years. The demand for TAU-1 in Maharashtra has reached the level of 27525 quintals of certified seed during the current year. The total seed production scenario of mutant varieties is indicative of their popularity. (author)

  15. Process Risk Assessment using Dynamic Simulation of Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Markert, Frank; Kozin, Igor; Duijm, Nijs Jan

    2016-01-01

    identification, description of accident scenarios and using the conventional approach to develop static event trees for events following a loss of containment. Modelling the impacts and consequences needs models to describe the release, dispersion and effect of the hazardous material, as well as models...

  16. Assessing Threat Detection Scenarios through Hypothesis Generation and Testing

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-12-01

    Publications. Field, A. (2005). Discovering statistics using SPSS (2nd ed.). Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications. Fisher, S. D., Gettys, C. F...therefore, subsequent F statistics are reported using the Huynh-Feldt correction (Greenhouse-Geisser Epsilon > .775). Experienced and inexperienced...change in hypothesis using experience and initial confidence as predictors. In the Dog Day scenario, the regression was not statistically

  17. Scenario analysis in environmental impact assessment: Improving explorations of the future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duinker, Peter N.; Greig, Lorne A.

    2007-01-01

    Scenarios and scenario analysis have become popular approaches in organizational planning and participatory exercises in pursuit of sustainable development. However, they are little used, at least in any formal way, in environmental impact assessment (EIA). This is puzzling because EIA is a process specifically dedicated to exploring options for more-sustainable (i.e., less environmentally damaging) futures. In this paper, we review the state of the art associated with scenarios and scenario analysis, and describe two areas where scenario analysis could be particularly helpful in EIA: (a) in defining future developments for cumulative effects assessment; and (b) in considering the influence of contextual change - e.g. climate change - on impact forecasts for specific projects. We conclude by encouraging EIA practitioners to learn about the promise of scenario-based analysis and implement scenario-based methods so that EIA can become more effective in fostering sustainable development

  18. Risk Assessment References: Documented Literature Search

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-10-01

    concepts specified in ISO /IEC 27001 and is designed to assist the satisfactory implementation of information security based on a risk management approach...Knowledge of the concepts, models, processes and terminologies described in ISO /IEC 27001 and ISO /IEC 27002 is important for a complete...Standardization ( ISO ). • Section 2.2: national standards for Canada and Australia/New Zealand. Note: Though most of the references in this section are

  19. The advanced scenario analysis for performance assessment of geological disposal. Pt. 3. Main document

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ohkubo, Hiroo

    2004-02-01

    In 'H12 Project to Establish Technical Basis for HLW Disposal in Japan' an approach that is based on an international consensus was adopted to develop scenarios to be considered in performance assessment. Adequacy of the approach was, in general term, appreciated through the peer review. However it was also suggested that there are issues related to improving transparency and traceability of the procedure. Therefore, in the current financial year, in the first place a scenario development methodology was constructed taking into account the requirements identified last year. Furthermore a practical work-frame was developed to support the activities related to the scenario development. This work-frame was applied to an example scenario to check its applicability and identify issues for further research. Secondly, scenario analysis method with regard to perturbation scenario has been studied. First of all, a survey of perturbation scenario discussed in different countries has been carried out and its assessment has been examined. Especially, in Japan, technical information has been classified in order to assess three scenarios, which are seismic activity, faulting and igneous activity. Then, on the basis of assumed occurrence pattern and influence pattern for each perturbation scenario, variant type that should be considered in this analysis has been identified, and the concept of treatment, modeling data and requirements have been clarified. As a result of these researches, a future direction for advanced scenario analysis on performance assessment has been indicated, as well as associated issues to be discussed have been clarified. (author)

  20. Climate change mitigation: comparative assessment of Malaysian and ASEAN scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rasiah, Rajah; Ahmed, Adeel; Al-Amin, Abul Quasem; Chenayah, Santha

    2017-01-01

    This paper analyses empirically the optimal climate change mitigation policy of Malaysia with the business as usual scenario of ASEAN to compare their environmental and economic consequences over the period 2010-2110. A downscaling empirical dynamic model is constructed using a dual multidisciplinary framework combining economic, earth science, and ecological variables to analyse the long-run consequences. The model takes account of climatic variables, including carbon cycle, carbon emission, climatic damage, carbon control, carbon concentration, and temperature. The results indicate that without optimal climate policy and action, the cumulative cost of climate damage for Malaysia and ASEAN as a whole over the period 2010-2110 would be MYR40.1 trillion and MYR151.0 trillion, respectively. Under the optimal policy, the cumulative cost of climatic damage for Malaysia would fall to MYR5.3 trillion over the 100 years. Also, the additional economic output of Malaysia will rise from MYR2.1 billion in 2010 to MYR3.6 billion in 2050 and MYR5.5 billion in 2110 under the optimal climate change mitigation scenario. The additional economic output for ASEAN would fall from MYR8.1 billion in 2010 to MYR3.2 billion in 2050 before rising again slightly to MYR4.7 billion in 2110 in the business as usual ASEAN scenario.

  1. Risk assessment by convergence methodology in RDD scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Araujo, Olga Maria Oliveira de; Andrade, Edson Ramos de; Rebello, Wilson Freitas; Silva, Gabriel Fidalgo Queiroz da

    2015-01-01

    An RDD event occurs by explosion and radioactive material dispersion where particles containing radioactive material can reach great distances from original point of the explosion and generating a plume of contamination. The use of a RDD is regarded as the most likely scenario involving radiological terrorist material. Accurate information on the population and the estimated dose are essential for analysis during the decision process. This work intends to present a proposal for a convergence of methodologies using the computer simulation codes Hotspot Health Physics 3.0 and the statistical model Radiation Effects Research Foundation (RERF) to calculate the approximate dose depending on the distance of the original point of the explosion of an RDD. From those data, the relative risk of developing tumors is estimated, as well as the probability of causation. At a later stage, the proposed combination of actions intended to help the decision-making and employment response personnel in emergency protection measures, such as sheltering and evacuation through the RESRAD-RDD software. The convergence of the proposed methodology can accelerate the process of acquiring information during the first hours of a radiological scenario and provide proper management of medical response and organization of the overall response. (author)

  2. Risk assessment by convergence methodology in RDD scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Araujo, Olga Maria Oliveira de; Andrade, Edson Ramos de; Rebello, Wilson Freitas; Silva, Gabriel Fidalgo Queiroz da, E-mail: olgafisica2013@hotmail.com, E-mail: fisica.dna@gmail.com, E-mail: rebello@ime.eb.br, E-mail: profgabriel.fisica@gmail.com [Instituto Militar de Engenharia (IME), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Secao de Engenharia Nuclear

    2015-07-01

    An RDD event occurs by explosion and radioactive material dispersion where particles containing radioactive material can reach great distances from original point of the explosion and generating a plume of contamination. The use of a RDD is regarded as the most likely scenario involving radiological terrorist material. Accurate information on the population and the estimated dose are essential for analysis during the decision process. This work intends to present a proposal for a convergence of methodologies using the computer simulation codes Hotspot Health Physics 3.0 and the statistical model Radiation Effects Research Foundation (RERF) to calculate the approximate dose depending on the distance of the original point of the explosion of an RDD. From those data, the relative risk of developing tumors is estimated, as well as the probability of causation. At a later stage, the proposed combination of actions intended to help the decision-making and employment response personnel in emergency protection measures, such as sheltering and evacuation through the RESRAD-RDD software. The convergence of the proposed methodology can accelerate the process of acquiring information during the first hours of a radiological scenario and provide proper management of medical response and organization of the overall response. (author)

  3. Assessing the Sustainability of EU Timber Consumption Trends: Comparing Consumption Scenarios with a Safe Operating Space Scenario for Global and EU Timber Supply

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meghan O’Brien

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The growing demand for wood to meet EU renewable energy targets has increasingly come under scrutiny for potentially increasing EU import dependence and inducing land use change abroad, with associated impacts on the climate and biodiversity. This article builds on research accounting for levels of primary timber consumption—e.g., toward forest footprints—and developing reference values for benchmarking sustainability—e.g., toward land use targets—in order to improve systemic monitoring of timber and forest use. Specifically, it looks at future trends to assess how current EU policy may impact forests at an EU and global scale. Future demand scenarios are based on projections derived and adapted from the literature to depict developments under different scenario assumptions. Results reveal that by 2030, EU consumption levels on a per capita basis are estimated to be increasingly disproportionate compared to the rest of the world. EU consumption scenarios based on meeting around a 40% share of the EU renewable energy targets with timber would overshoot both the EU and global reference value range for sustainable supply capacities in 2030. Overall, findings support literature pointing to an increased risk of problem shifting relating to both how much and where timber needed for meeting renewable energy targets is sourced. It is argued that a sustainable level of timber consumption should be characterized by balance between supply (what the forest can provide on a sustainable basis and demand (how much is used on a per capita basis, considering the concept of fair shares. To this end, future research should close data gaps, increase methodological robustness and address the socio-political legitimacy of the safe operating space concept towards targets in the future. A re-use of timber within the economy should be supported to increase supply options.

  4. Challenges of electricity production scenarios modelling for life cycle assessment of environmental impacts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Blanc, Isabelle; Beloin-Saint-Pierre, Didier [MINES ParisTech, Sophia Antipolis (France). Observation, Impacts, Energy Center

    2013-07-01

    This communication presents a first attempt at making a life cycle assessment of prospective electricity production scenarios which were designed in the EnerGEO project. We start by a basic review of system (in this case, scenario) modelling expectations in today's LCA study. We then review some of the challenges of implementation due to the lack of detailed description of present and future electricity production systems. The importance of a detailed description is then shown with an evaluation of uncertainty of life cycle impact assessment results for three scenarios of German electricity production in 2030. The significant uncertainties we found, prevent us from detecting a relevant trend or making any comparison between the three chosen scenarios. We finally come to the conclusion that the LCA methodology will become relevant for the environmental assessment of electricity production scenarios when many more detailed information are accounted to describe future technologies, structures and sources of energy. (orig.)

  5. Challenges of electricity production scenarios modelling for life cycle assessment of environmental impacts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blanc, Isabelle; Beloin-Saint-Pierre, Didier

    2013-01-01

    This communication presents a first attempt at making a life cycle assessment of prospective electricity production scenarios which were designed in the EnerGEO project. We start by a basic review of system (in this case, scenario) modelling expectations in today's LCA study. We then review some of the challenges of implementation due to the lack of detailed description of present and future electricity production systems. The importance of a detailed description is then shown with an evaluation of uncertainty of life cycle impact assessment results for three scenarios of German electricity production in 2030. The significant uncertainties we found, prevent us from detecting a relevant trend or making any comparison between the three chosen scenarios. We finally come to the conclusion that the LCA methodology will become relevant for the environmental assessment of electricity production scenarios when many more detailed information are accounted to describe future technologies, structures and sources of energy. (orig.)

  6. Identification of scenarios in the safety assessment of a deep geological site for radioactive waste disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Escalier des Orres, P.; Devillers, C.; Cernes, A.

    1990-01-01

    The selection and qualification procedure of a site for radioactive wastes disposal in a deep geologic formation, has begun in France in the early eighties. The public authorities, on ANDRA's proposal, has preselected in 1987 four sites, each of them corresponding to a type of geologic formations (granite, clay, salt and shale). Within two years, one of these sites will be chosen for the location of an underground laboratory. The safety analysis for the site's qualification uses evolution scenarios of the repository and its environment, chosen according to a deterministic method. With an appropriate detail level, are defined a reference scenario and scenario with random events. 4 refs., 1 tab [fr

  7. Preparing suitable climate scenario data to assess impacts on local food safety

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Liu, C.; Hofstra, N.; Leemans, R.

    2015-01-01

    Quantification of climate change impacts on food safety requires food safety assessment with different past and future climate scenario data to compare current and future conditions. This study presents a tool to prepare climate and climate change data for local food safety scenario analysis and

  8. Scenarios for the Hanford Immobilized Low-Activity Waste (ILAW) performance assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    MANN, F.M.

    1999-01-01

    Scenarios describing representative exposure cases associated with the disposal of low activity waste from the Hanford Waste Tanks have been defined. These scenarios are based on guidance from the Department of Energy, the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, and previous Hanford waste disposal performance assessments

  9. Assessing climate change impacts, benefits of mitigation, and uncertainties on major global forest regions under multiple socioeconomic and emissions scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, John B.; Monier, Erwan; Sohngen, Brent; Pitts, G. Stephen; Drapek, Ray; McFarland, James; Ohrel, Sara; Cole, Jefferson

    2017-04-01

    We analyze a set of simulations to assess the impact of climate change on global forests where MC2 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) was run with climate simulations from the MIT Integrated Global System Model-Community Atmosphere Model (IGSM-CAM) modeling framework. The core study relies on an ensemble of climate simulations under two emissions scenarios: a business-as-usual reference scenario (REF) analogous to the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario, and a greenhouse gas mitigation scenario, called POL3.7, which is in between the IPCC RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios, and is consistent with a 2 °C global mean warming from pre-industrial by 2100. Evaluating the outcomes of both climate change scenarios in the MC2 model shows that the carbon stocks of most forests around the world increased, with the greatest gains in tropical forest regions. Temperate forest regions are projected to see strong increases in productivity offset by carbon loss to fire. The greatest cost of mitigation in terms of effects on forest carbon stocks are projected to be borne by regions in the southern hemisphere. We compare three sources of uncertainty in climate change impacts on the world’s forests: emissions scenarios, the global system climate response (i.e. climate sensitivity), and natural variability. The role of natural variability on changes in forest carbon and net primary productivity (NPP) is small, but it is substantial for impacts of wildfire. Forest productivity under the REF scenario benefits substantially from the CO2 fertilization effect and that higher warming alone does not necessarily increase global forest carbon levels. Our analysis underlines why using an ensemble of climate simulations is necessary to derive robust estimates of the benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation. It also demonstrates that constraining estimates of climate sensitivity and advancing our understanding of CO2 fertilization effects may considerably reduce the range of projections.

  10. Economic and environmental assessment of cellulosic ethanol production scenarios annexed to a typical sugar mill.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ali Mandegari, Mohsen; Farzad, Somayeh; Görgens, Johann F

    2017-01-01

    In this work different biorefinery scenarios were investigated, concerning the co-production of bioethanol and electricity from available lignocellulose at a typical sugar mill, as possible extensions to the current combustion of bagasse for steam and electricity production and burning trash on-filed. In scenario 1, the whole bagasse and brown leaves is utilized in a biorefinery and coal is burnt in the existing inefficient sugar mill boiler. Scenario 2 & 3 are assumed with a new centralized CHP unit without/with coal co-combustion, respectively. Also, through scenarios 4 & 5, the effect of water insoluble loading were studied. All scenarios provided energy for the sugarmill and the ethanol plant, with the export of surplus electricity. Economic analysis determined that scenario 1 was the most viable scenario due to less capital cost and economies-of scale. Based on Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) results, scenario 2 outperformed the other scenarios, while three scenarios showed lower contribution to environmental burdens than the current situation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. The definition and treatment of scenarios in a probabilistic systems assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andres, T.H.; Goodwin, B.W

    1998-03-01

    Concepts for the disposal of nuclear waste generally involve the use of multiple barriers, both man-made and natural, to isolate the waste from man's environment for very long periods of time. To assess the safety of these concepts, postclosure safety assessments are conducted to study the types, ranges and probabilities of potential impacts caused by wastes penetrating these barriers. Within the Canadian context, postclosure safety assessments must estimate radiological risk for comparison with regulatory criteria. The definition of radiological risk introduces a requirement to identify and then evaluate scenarios that describe quantitatively the possible behaviour of a disposal system and its surroundings for at least 10{sup 4} years. This report examines the connection between the identification and evaluation of scenarios. It shows how a large collection of factors can be combined to form simple scenarios, and how a large number of simple scenarios can be grouped into a manageably small number of compound scenarios. The compound scenarios, notably the 'central' scenario, can be evaluated using a probabilistic systems assessment code such as SYVAC3 (SYstems Variability Analysis Code, generation 3) to estimate the radiological risk and other environmental impacts. Examples are taken from a long-term performance assessment study to demonstrate a pragmatic application of the procedure. (author)

  12. The definition and treatment of scenarios in a probabilistic systems assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andres, T.H.; Goodwin, B.W.

    1998-03-01

    Concepts for the disposal of nuclear waste generally involve the use of multiple barriers, both man-made and natural, to isolate the waste from man's environment for very long periods of time. To assess the safety of these concepts, postclosure safety assessments are conducted to study the types, ranges and probabilities of potential impacts caused by wastes penetrating these barriers. Within the Canadian context, postclosure safety assessments must estimate radiological risk for comparison with regulatory criteria. The definition of radiological risk introduces a requirement to identify and then evaluate scenarios that describe quantitatively the possible behaviour of a disposal system and its surroundings for at least 10 4 years. This report examines the connection between the identification and evaluation of scenarios. It shows how a large collection of factors can be combined to form simple scenarios, and how a large number of simple scenarios can be grouped into a manageably small number of compound scenarios. The compound scenarios, notably the 'central' scenario, can be evaluated using a probabilistic systems assessment code such as SYVAC3 (SYstems Variability Analysis Code, generation 3) to estimate the radiological risk and other environmental impacts. Examples are taken from a long-term performance assessment study to demonstrate a pragmatic application of the procedure. (author)

  13. Assessment of Effectiveness of Geologic Isolation Systems: REFERENCE SITE INITIAL ASSESSMENT FOR A SALT DOME REPOSITORY

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Harwell, M. A.; Brandstetter, A.; Benson, G. L.; Raymond, J. R.; Brandley, D. J.; Serne, R. J.; Soldat, J. K.; Cole, C. R.; Deutsch, W. J.; Gupta, S. K.; Harwell, C. C.; Napier, B. A.; Reisenauer, A. E.; Prater, L. S.; Simmons, C. S.; Strenge, D. L.; Washburn, J. F.; Zellmer, J. T.

    1982-06-01

    As a methodology demonstration for the Office of Nuclear Waste Isolation (ONWI), the Assessment of Effectiveness of Geologic Isolation Systems (AEGIS) Program conducted an initial reference site analysis of the long-term effectiveness of a salt dome repository. The Hainesville Salt Dome in Texas was chosen to be representative of the Gulf Coast interior salt domes; however, the Hainesville Site has been eliminated as a possible nuclear waste repository site. The data used for this exercise are not adequate for an actual assessment, nor have all the parametric analyses been made that would adequately characterize the response of the geosystem surrounding the repository. Additionally, because this was the first exercise of the complete AEGIS and WASTE Rock Interaction Technology (WRIT) methodology, this report provides the initial opportunity for the methodology, specifically applied to a site, to be reviewed by the community outside the AEGIS. The scenario evaluation, as a part of the methodology demonstration, involved consideration of a large variety of potentially disruptive phenomena, which alone or in concert could lead to a breach in a salt dome repository and to a subsequent transport of the radionuclides to the environment. Without waste- and repository-induced effects, no plausible natural geologic events or processes which would compromise the repository integrity could be envisioned over the one-million-year time frame after closure. Near-field (waste- and repository-induced) effects were excluded from consideration in this analysis, but they can be added in future analyses when that methodology development is more complete. The potential for consequential human intrusion into salt domes within a million-year time frame led to the consideration of a solution mining intrusion scenario. The AEGIS staff developed a specific human intrusion scenario at 100 years and 1000 years post-closure, which is one of a whole suite of possible scenarios. This scenario

  14. Life cycle assessment of cell phones in Brazil based on two reverse logistics scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniela da Gama e Silva Volpe Moreira de Moraes

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available This article is a result of a cell phone collection obtained at the Center for Information Technology Renato Archer (CTI under the AMBIENTRONIC Program, an initiative that supports the Brazilian electronic sector in the development of technologies for sustainability. The objective of this article is to assess two reverse logistic scenarios of cell phones using the technique of life-cycle assessment (LCA. The first scenario reflects the current scenario in Brazil, where batteries are recycled in Brazil and the other parts of the phones are outsourced to Europe. The second scenario is a proposal of full treatment in Brazil. The results indicate that the second scenario has a lower potential impact with important reduction of acidification, photochemical oxidation, eutrophication and the use of non-renewable energy. Furthermore, fully implementing reverse logistics in Brazil will enable socioeconomic benefits from the sale of materials and the generation of employment and income.

  15. Using Performance in Multiple Simulated Scenarios to Assess Bronchoscopy Skills

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Konge, Lars; Arendrup, Henrik; Buchwald, Christian von

    2011-01-01

    using a standardized scoring form. Methods: The test was administered on a virtual reality bronchoscopy simulator to a total of 42 test subjects (14 senior consultants, 14 trainees and 14 medical students). The inter-rater reliability of the test procedure was explored according to examination of test......Background: International guidelines suggest that trainees should perform at least 100 flexible bronchoscopies in a supervised setting, but this number is not evidence based. An objective assessment method could provide educational feedback to trainees and help supervisors decide when basic...... competency is established. No former assessment instrument has been able to distinguish between trainees and experts. Objectives: The aim of this study was to explore the validity and reliability of a new assessment procedure relating to testing operators across multiple tasks with increasing difficulty...

  16. Scenario drafting to anticipate future developments in technology assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Retel, Valesca; Retel, V.P.; Joore, M.A.; Rutgers, E.J.; van Harten, Willem H.

    2012-01-01

    Background Health Technology Assessment (HTA) information, and in particular cost-effectiveness data is needed to guide decisions, preferably already in early stages of technological development. However, at that moment there is usually a high degree of uncertainty, because evidence is limited and

  17. SCHRAADLO: Assessment of SCHRAADLO-T performance for S scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Horyna, J.

    1996-01-01

    The model SCHRAADLO has been developed to assess the environmental impact of nuclear facilities. It is a dynamic compartmental model. The model is driven by daily air concentration and daily precipitation rate. The output are time dependent concentrations in soil, different types of meat and plants, milk and whole body. There are not included aquatic and seminatural food chains. Calculations of contamination of fungi have been performed separately. 8 figs, 2 tabs

  18. Scenario based approach for multiple source Tsunami Hazard assessment for Sines, Portugal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wronna, M.; Omira, R.; Baptista, M. A.

    2015-08-01

    In this paper, we present a scenario-based approach for tsunami hazard assessment for the city and harbour of Sines - Portugal, one of the test-sites of project ASTARTE. Sines holds one of the most important deep-water ports which contains oil-bearing, petrochemical, liquid bulk, coal and container terminals. The port and its industrial infrastructures are facing the ocean southwest towards the main seismogenic sources. This work considers two different seismic zones: the Southwest Iberian Margin and the Gloria Fault. Within these two regions, we selected a total of six scenarios to assess the tsunami impact at the test site. The tsunami simulations are computed using NSWING a Non-linear Shallow Water Model With Nested Grids. In this study, the static effect of tides is analysed for three different tidal stages MLLW (mean lower low water), MSL (mean sea level) and MHHW (mean higher high water). For each scenario, inundation is described by maximum values of wave height, flow depth, drawback, runup and inundation distance. Synthetic waveforms are computed at virtual tide gauges at specific locations outside and inside the harbour. The final results describe the impact at Sines test site considering the single scenarios at mean sea level, the aggregate scenario and the influence of the tide on the aggregate scenario. The results confirm the composite of Horseshoe and Marques Pombal fault as the worst case scenario. It governs the aggregate scenario with about 60 % and inundates an area of 3.5 km2.

  19. Specificity, contexts, and reference groups matter when assessing autistic traits

    OpenAIRE

    Gernsbacher, Morton Ann; Stevenson, Jennifer L.; Dern, Sebastian

    2017-01-01

    Many of the personality and behavioral traits (e.g., social imperviousness, directness in conversation, lack of imagination, affinity for solitude, difficulty displaying emotions) that are known to be sensitive to context (with whom?) and reference group (according to whom?) also appear in questionnaire-based assessments of autistic traits. Therefore, two experiments investigated the effects of specifying contexts and reference groups when assessing autistic traits in autistic and non-autisti...

  20. Environmental and economic assessment of protected crops in four European scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Torrellas, M.; Antón, A.; Ruijs, M.N.A.; Garcia Victoria, N.; Stanghellini, C.; Montero, J.I.

    2012-01-01

    In this study we analysed the environmental and economic profile of current agricultural practices for greenhouse crops, in cold and warm climates in Europe, using four scenarios as reference systems: tomato crop in a plastic greenhouse in Spain, and in glasshouses in Hungary and the Netherlands,

  1. Exposure scenario libraries as a tool for exposure assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jiménez, Araceli Sánchez; Rashid, Shahzad; Van Tongeren, Martie; Brouwer, Derk; Fransman, Wouter; Fito, Carlos; Boulougouris, George

    2015-01-01

    The development of nanotechnology has reached a point where it is being widely applied, and numerous nanomaterials and nano-enabled products are handled across a broad range of industrial sectors. Exposure extends beyond occupational settings as products containing nanomaterials are used by different consumer groups.Despite the knowledge on their toxic effects is growing there is still not OEL for most NMS and therefore the precautionary approach is still used where levels are kept as low as possible Therefore there is a need to assess workers and consumers exposure. (paper)

  2. Future scenarios: a technical document supporting the Forest Service 2010 RPA Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    . USDA Forest Service.

    2012-01-01

    The Forest and Rangeland Renewable Resources Planning Act of 1974 (RPA) mandates a periodic assessment of the conditions and trends of the Nation's renewable resources on forests and rangelands. The RPA Assessment includes projections of resource conditions and trends 50 years into the future. The 2010 RPA Assessment used a set of future scenarios to provide a...

  3. Methodology to translate policy assessment problems into scenarios: the example of the SEAMLESS integrated framework

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Therond, O.; Belhouchette, H.; Janssen, S.J.C.; Louhichi, K.; Ewert, F.; Bergez, J.E.; Wery, J.; Heckelei, T.; Olsson, J.A.; Leenhardt, D.; Ittersum, van M.K.

    2009-01-01

    Scenario-based approaches in environmental and policy assessment studies are increasingly applied within integrated assessment and modelling frameworks. The SEAMLESS project develops such an integrated framework (SEAMLESS-IF) aiming to assess, ex-ante, impacts of alternative agro-environmental

  4. Assessing cost-effectiveness of bioretention on stormwater in response to climate change and urbanization for future scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Mo; Zhang, Dongqing; Adhityan, Appan; Ng, Wun Jern; Dong, Jianwen; Tan, Soon Keat

    2016-12-01

    Bioretention, as a popular low impact development practice, has become more important to mitigate adverse impacts on urban stormwater. However, there is very limited information regarding ensuring the effectiveness of bioretention response to uncertain future challenges, especially when taking into consideration climate change and urbanization. The main objective of this paper is to identify the cost-effectiveness of bioretention by assessing the hydrology performance under future scenarios modeling. First, the hydrology model was used to obtain peak runoff and TSS loads of bioretention with variable scales under different scenarios, i.e., different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and Shared Socio-economic reference Pathways (SSPs) for 2-year and 10-year design storms in Singapore. Then, life cycle costing (LCC) and life cycle assessment (LCA) were estimated for bioretention, and the cost-effectiveness was identified under different scenarios. Our finding showed that there were different degree of responses to 2-year and 10-year design storms but the general patterns and insights deduced were similar. The performance of bioretenion was more sensitive to urbanization than that for climate change in the urban catchment. In addition, it was noted that the methodology used in this study was generic and the findings could be useful as reference for other LID practices in response to climate change and urbanization.

  5. Development of safety assessment method for human intrusion scenario in Japan. Part 1. Drilling scenario database for safety assessment of geological disposal (Contract research)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nagasawa, Hirokazu; Takeda, Seiji; Kimura, Hideo; Sasaki, Toshihisa

    2010-11-01

    In deep geological disposal or intermediate depth disposal, human intrusion, i.e. accidental excavation or drilling into the disposal site, may make a direct or an indirect effect on the disposal system. Safety assessment method for the human intrusion scenario, that is, the evaluation code of radiological effect from the human intrusion and the data to examine the reduction of the probability of the human intrusion occurring, is essential for the future safety regulation. Assuming that drilling action into the disposal site leads to the human proximity to the radioactive waste or the damage to the barrier system (drilling scenario), we have collected both the data on borehole drilling implemented in Japan and information on actual situation of drilling activities. Based on the data and information, we provide concrete exposure scenarios associated with borehole drilling in the vicinity of the repository and model for estimating the frequency on borehole reaching the depth of repository. The frequency is characterized with the relation to objective of excavation, geographical features, and region in Japan etc. We have developed an assembly of the information mentioned above as database, including the model parameters used in the code to assess radiation dose for drilling scenario. (author)

  6. Evaluating hydrological response to forecasted land-use change—scenario testing with the automated geospatial watershed assessment (AGWA) tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kepner, William G.; Semmens, Darius J.; Hernandez, Mariano; Goodrich, David C.

    2009-01-01

    Envisioning and evaluating future scenarios has emerged as a critical component of both science and social decision-making. The ability to assess, report, map, and forecast the life support functions of ecosystems is absolutely critical to our capacity to make informed decisions to maintain the sustainable nature of our ecosystem services now and into the future. During the past two decades, important advances in the integration of remote imagery, computer processing, and spatial-analysis technologies have been used to develop landscape information that can be integrated with hydrologic models to determine long-term change and make predictive inferences about the future. Two diverse case studies in northwest Oregon (Willamette River basin) and southeastern Arizona (San Pedro River) were examined in regard to future land use scenarios relative to their impact on surface water conditions (e.g., sediment yield and surface runoff) using hydrologic models associated with the Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment (AGWA) tool. The base reference grid for land cover was modified in both study locations to reflect stakeholder preferences 20 to 60 yrs into the future, and the consequences of landscape change were evaluated relative to the selected future scenarios. The two studies provide examples of integrating hydrologic modeling with a scenario analysis framework to evaluate plausible future forecasts and to understand the potential impact of landscape change on ecosystem services.

  7. TA-54 (Area G) Risk Assessment from Extreme Wildfire Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Linn, Rodman Ray [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Koo, Eunmo [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Honig, Kristen Ann [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); White, Judith [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Funk, David John [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2016-08-10

    Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) and surrounding areas have been exposed to at least four significant wildfires since 1977 and there have been numerous others within 50 miles of LANL. Based on this history, wildfires are considered a risk to LANL facilities and their contents. While many LANL facilities are at risk to wildfire to some degree, they are found in a wide variety of conditions, thus they have varying sensitivities to wildfires. Additionally, LANL facilities have various functions and different assets, so they have a wide range of values or consequences if compromised. Therefore, determining the risks and precautions that are warranted to mitigate these risks must be done on a case-by-case basis. In an effort to assess possible wildfire risks to sensitive materials stored in a Perma-Con® in dome TA-54-0375, a conventional fire risk analysis was performed. This conventional risk analysis is documented in Engineering Evaluation Form AP-FIRE-001-FM1, which is dated 9/28/2015 and was titled ‘Wildland Fire Exposure Evaluation for Building TA-54-0375’ (Hall 2015). This analysis acknowledged that there was significant chance of wildfire in the vicinity of TA-54-0375, but the amount of combustible material surrounding the building was deemed low. The wildland fuels that were closest to the building were largely fine fuels and were not expected to have significant duration of heat release. The prevailing winds at this location are from the south and southwest and the nearest significant upwind fuels (tree crowns or unmown grasses) are at least 300 feet away. Based on these factors the conventional wildland fire risk to TA-54-0375 was deemed minimal, “Acceptable As Is, No Action Required.” This risk evaluation was based on a combined assessment of low probability of wildfires arriving at the site from other directions (where higher fuel loadings might be present) as well as the effective setback of fuels in the direction that fire is

  8. Scenario development for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant: Building confidence in the assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Galson, D.A.; Swift, P.N.

    1994-01-01

    Scenario developments is part of the iterative performance assessment (PA) process for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). Scenario development for the WIPP has been the subject of intense external review, and is certain to be the subject of continued scrutiny as the project proceeds toward regulatory compliance. The principal means of increasing confidence is this aspect of the PA will be through the use of a systematic and thorough procedure toward developing the scenarios and conceptual models on which the assessment is to be based. Early and ongoing interaction with project reviewers can assist with confidence building. Quality of argument and clarity of presentation in PA will be of key concern. Appropriate tools are required for documenting and tracking assumptions, through a single assessment phase, and between iterative assessment phases. Risks associated with future human actions are of particular concern to the WIPP project, and international consensus on the principles for incorporation of future human actions in assessments would be valuable

  9. Scenario development for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant: Building confidence in the assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Galson, D.A.; Swift, P.N.

    1994-07-01

    Scenario development is part of the iterative performance assessment (PA) process for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). Scenario development for the WIPP has been the subject of intense external review and is certain to be the subject of continued scrutiny as the project proceeds toward regulatory compliance. The principal means of increasing confidence in this aspect of the PA will be through the use of the systematic and thorough procedure toward developing the scenarios and conceptual models on which the assessment is to be based. Early and ongoing interaction with project reviewers can assist with confidence building. Quality of argument and clarity of presentation in PA will be of key concern. Appropriate tools are required for documenting and tracking assumptions, through a single assessment phase, and between iterative assessment phases. Risks associated with future human actions are of particular concern to the WIPP project, and international consensus on the principles for incorporation of future human actions in assessments would be valuable

  10. Transport energy demand in Andorra. Assessing private car futures through sensitivity and scenario analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Travesset-Baro, Oriol; Gallachóir, Brian P.Ó.; Jover, Eric; Rosas-Casals, Marti

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents a model which estimates current car fleet energy consumption in Andorra and forecasts such consumption as a reference scenario. The base-year model is built through a bottom-up methodology using vehicle registration and technical inspection data. The model forecasts energy consumption up to 2050, taking into account the fleet structure, the car survival profile, trends in activity of the various car categories, and the fuel price and income elasticities that affect car stock and total fleet activity. It provides an initial estimate of private car energy demand in Andorra and charts a baseline scenario that describes a hypothetical future based on historical trends. A local sensitivity analysis is conducted to determine the most sensitive input parameters and study the effect of its variability. In addition, the scenario analysis explores the most uncertain future aspects which can cause important variability in the results with respect to the Reference scenario and provides a broad estimate of potential energy savings related to different policy strategies. - Highlights: •A private car energy model is built using aggregated available data. •Andorra's current car fleet energy consumption is estimated and forecasted to 2050. •Potential energy savings have been estimated using sensitivity and scenario analysis.

  11. Using MFM methodology to generate and define major accident scenarios for quantitative risk assessment studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hua, Xinsheng; Wu, Zongzhi; Lind, Morten

    2017-01-01

    to calculate likelihood of each MAS. Combining the likelihood of each scenario with a qualitative risk matrix, each major accident scenario is thereby ranked for consideration for detailed consequence analysis. The methodology is successfully highlighted using part of BMA-process for production of hydrogen......Generating and defining Major Accident Scenarios (MAS) are commonly agreed as the key step for quantitative risk assessment (QRA). The aim of the study is to explore the feasibility of using Multilevel Flow Modeling (MFM) methodology to formulating MAS. Traditionally this is usually done based...

  12. Development of exposure scenarios for CERCLA risk assessments at the Savannah River Site

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nix, D.W.; Immel, J.W. [Westinghouse Savannah River Co., Aiken, SC (United States); Phifer, M.A. [Tennessee Univ., Knoxville, TN (United States). Dept. of Civil Engineering

    1992-12-31

    A CERCLA Baseline Risk Assessment (BRA) is performed to determine if there are any potential risks to human health and the environment from waste unit at SRS. The SRS has numerous waste units to evaluate in the RFMU and CMS/FS programs and, in order to provide a consistent approach, four standard exposure scenarios were developed for exposure assessments to be used in human health risk assessments. The standard exposure scenarios are divided into two temporal categories: (a) Current Land Use in the BRA, and (b) Future Land Use in the RERA. The Current Land Use scenarios consist of the evaluation of human health risk for Industrial Exposure (of a worker not involved in waste unit characterization or remediation), a Trespasser, a hypothetical current On-site Resident, and an Off-site Resident. The Future Land Use scenario considers exposure to an On-site Resident following termination of institutional control in the absence of any remedial action (No Action Alternative), as well as evaluating potential remedial alternatives against the four scenarios from the BRA. A critical facet in the development of a BRA or RERA is the scoping of exposure scenarios that reflect actual conditions at a waste unit, rather than using factors such as EPA Standard Default Exposure Scenarios (OSWER Directive 9285.6-03) that are based on upper-bound exposures that tend to reflect worst case conditions. The use of site-specific information for developing risk assessment exposure scenarios will result in a more realistic estimate of Reasonable Maximum Exposure for SRS waste units.

  13. Development of exposure scenarios for CERCLA risk assessments at the Savannah River Site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nix, D.W.; Immel, J.W.; Phifer, M.A.

    1992-01-01

    A CERCLA Baseline Risk Assessment (BRA) is performed to determine if there are any potential risks to human health and the environment from waste unit at SRS. The SRS has numerous waste units to evaluate in the RFMU and CMS/FS programs and, in order to provide a consistent approach, four standard exposure scenarios were developed for exposure assessments to be used in human health risk assessments. The standard exposure scenarios are divided into two temporal categories: (a) Current Land Use in the BRA, and (b) Future Land Use in the RERA. The Current Land Use scenarios consist of the evaluation of human health risk for Industrial Exposure (of a worker not involved in waste unit characterization or remediation), a Trespasser, a hypothetical current On-site Resident, and an Off-site Resident. The Future Land Use scenario considers exposure to an On-site Resident following termination of institutional control in the absence of any remedial action (No Action Alternative), as well as evaluating potential remedial alternatives against the four scenarios from the BRA. A critical facet in the development of a BRA or RERA is the scoping of exposure scenarios that reflect actual conditions at a waste unit, rather than using factors such as EPA Standard Default Exposure Scenarios (OSWER Directive 9285.6-03) that are based on upper-bound exposures that tend to reflect worst case conditions. The use of site-specific information for developing risk assessment exposure scenarios will result in a more realistic estimate of Reasonable Maximum Exposure for SRS waste units

  14. Decarbonizing the Global Economy - An Integrated Assessment of Low Carbon Emission Scenarios proposed in Climate Policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hokamp, Sascha; Khabbazan, Mohammad Mohammadi

    2017-04-01

    In 2015, the Conference of the Parties (COP 21) reaffirmed to targeting the global mean temperature rise below 2 °C in 2100 while finding no consent on decarbonizing the global economy, and instead, the final agreement called for enhanced scientific investigation of low carbon emission scenarios (UNFCC, 2015). In addition, the Climate Action Network International (CAN) proposes Special Reports to address decarbonization and low carbon development including 1.5 °C scenarios (IPCC, 2016). In response to these developments, we investigate whether the carbon emission cuts, in accordance with the recent climate policy proposals, may reach the climate target. To tackle this research question, we employ the coupled climate-energy-economy integrated assessment Model of INvestment and endogenous technological Development (MIND, cf. Edenhofer et al., 2005, Neubersch et al. 2014). Extending MIND's climate module to the two-box version used in the Dynamic Integrated model of Climate and the Economy (DICE, cf. Nordhaus and Sztorc, 2013, Nordhaus 2014), we perform a cost-effectiveness analysis with constraints on anthropogenic carbon emissions. We show that a climate policy scenario with early decarbonization complies with the 2° C climate target, even without Carbon Capturing and Storage (CCS) or negative emissions (see van Vuuren et al., 2013, for negative emissions). However, using emission inertia of 3.7 percent annually, reflecting the inflexibility on transforming the energy sector, we find a climate policy with moderately low emissions from 2100 onwards at a cost in terms of Balanced Growth Equivalents (BGE, cf. Anthoff and Tol, 2009) of 0.764 % that requires an early (2035 vs. 2120) peak of investments in renewable energy production compared to a business-as-usual scenario. Hence, decarbonizing the global economy and achieving the 2 °C target might still be possible before 2100, but the window of opportunity is beginning to close. References: Anthoff, D., and Tol, R

  15. Finding the Optimum Scenario in Risk-benefit Assessment: An Example on Vitamin D

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Berjia, Firew Lemma; Hoekstra, J.; Verhagen, H.

    2014-01-01

    an optimum scenario that provides maximum net health gain in health risk-benefit assessment of dietary exposure as expressed by serum vitamin D level. With regard to the vitamin D assessment, a considerable health gain is observed due to the reduction of risk of other cause mortality, fall and hip fractures......Background: In risk-benefit assessment of food and nutrients, several studies so far have focused on comparison of two scenarios to weigh the health effect against each other. One obvious next step is finding the optimum scenario that provides maximum net health gains. Aim: This paper aims to show...... that provides maximum net health gains. As a common health metric, Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALY) has been used to project the net health effect by using the QALIBRA (Quality of Life for Benefit Risk Assessment) software. Results: The method used in the vitamin D example shows that it is feasible to find...

  16. Combining lifecycle and risk assessments of mineral waste reuse scenarios for decision making support

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benetto, Enrico; Tiruta-Barna, Ligia; Perrodin, Yves

    2007-01-01

    Lack of regulations and standards on mineral waste recycling makes Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) and Ecological Risk Assessment (ERA) useful methods for environmental assessment of recycling scenarios. An unsolved problem arises whenever two scenarios of recycling have to be compared according to both ERA and LCA impact results considered simultaneously. A methodology to combine LCA and ERA results and tools toward Integrated Environmental Assessment (IEA) is proposed together with three application examples based on case studies. The most effective combination approach is to define further impact categories for ERA to be considered with the standard LCA ones. Then, the use of a multicriteria analysis method was proved to be an efficient way to rank alternative scenarios with respect to all the results. The key issues to be further researched are discussed and proposals are suggested

  17. Scenario analysis for the postclosure assessment of the Canadian concept for nuclear fuel waste disposal

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Goodwin, B W; Stephens, M E; Davison, C C; Johnson, L H; Zach, R

    1994-12-01

    AECL Research has developed and evaluated a concept for disposal of Canada`s nuclear fuel waste involving deep underground disposal of the waste in intrusive igneous rock of the Canadian Shield. The postclosure assessment of this concept focusses on the effects on human health and the environment due to potential contaminant releases into the biosphere after the disposal vault is closed. Both radiotoxic and chemically toxic contaminants are considered. One of the steps in the postclosure assessment process is scenario analysis. Scenario analysis identifies factors that could affect the performance of the disposal system and groups these factors into scenarios that require detailed quantitative evaluation. This report documents a systematic procedure for scenario analysis that was developed for the postclosure assessment and then applied to the study of a hypothetical disposal system. The application leads to a comprehensive list of factors and a set of scenarios that require further quantitative study. The application also identifies a number of other factors and potential scenarios that would not contribute significantly to environmental and safety impacts for the hypothetical disposal system. (author). 46 refs., 3 tabs., 3 figs., 2 appendices.

  18. Scenario analysis for the postclosure assessment of the Canadian concept for nuclear fuel waste disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goodwin, B.W.; Stephens, M.E.; Davison, C.C.; Johnson, L.H.; Zach, R.

    1994-12-01

    AECL Research has developed and evaluated a concept for disposal of Canada's nuclear fuel waste involving deep underground disposal of the waste in intrusive igneous rock of the Canadian Shield. The postclosure assessment of this concept focusses on the effects on human health and the environment due to potential contaminant releases into the biosphere after the disposal vault is closed. Both radiotoxic and chemically toxic contaminants are considered. One of the steps in the postclosure assessment process is scenario analysis. Scenario analysis identifies factors that could affect the performance of the disposal system and groups these factors into scenarios that require detailed quantitative evaluation. This report documents a systematic procedure for scenario analysis that was developed for the postclosure assessment and then applied to the study of a hypothetical disposal system. The application leads to a comprehensive list of factors and a set of scenarios that require further quantitative study. The application also identifies a number of other factors and potential scenarios that would not contribute significantly to environmental and safety impacts for the hypothetical disposal system. (author). 46 refs., 3 tabs., 3 figs., 2 appendices

  19. Using scenarios of North Slope energy and resource development to assess research and monitoring needs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Payne, J. F.

    2016-12-01

    Significant Arctic environmental and socio-economic change has been observed on the North Slope of Alaska, presenting challenges for resident communities and management agencies that need to adapt to future changes that are difficult to model or predict. Continued climate change coupled with new or modified energy development could substantially alter the landscape and ecosystem in the future. The North Slope Science Initiative (NSSI) recognized the value of using a participatory scenarios process to consider plausible future energy and resource development scenarios through the year 2040 to help identify and prioritize research and monitoring needs on the North Slope. The scenarios process engaged diverse stakeholders, including subject matter experts and local knowledge holders. Through identification and ranking of key drivers and uncertainties relevant to the focus of the study, a series of spatially explicit scenarios was developed, analyzed in terms of low, medium and high development activities. Climate change and economic factors were key drivers affecting plausible energy development scenarios. The implications from each of the scenarios were then used to identify important research and monitoring activities and their relevant spatial scales. The scenarios project identified over 40 research and monitoring needs. The top five research needs addressed data gaps and key concerns related to how the scenarios could affect: hunting and trapping on land, health and community well-being, permafrost and hydrology, marine mammal subsistence and potential marine oil spills. The use of a participatory scenarios process was essential for identifying a range of plausible energy and resource development scenarios using a framework that involved a systematic assessment of complex interacting drivers of change, consideration of key uncertainties, and transparency throughout the project.

  20. Construction of climate change scenarios from transient climate change experiments for the IPCC impacts assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Viner, D.; Hulme, M.; Raper, S.C.B.; Jones, P.D.

    1994-01-01

    This paper outlines the different methods which may be used for the construction of regional climate change scenarios. The main focus of the paper is the construction of global climate change scenarios from climate change experiments carried out using General Circulation Models (GCMS) An introduction to some GCM climate change experiments highlights the difference between model types and experiments (e.g., equilibrium or transient). The latest generation of climate change experiments has been performed using fully coupled ocean-atmosphere GCMS. These allow transient simulations of climate change to be performed with respect to a given greenhouse gas forcing scenario. There are, however, a number of problems with these simulations which pose difficulties for the construction of climate change scenarios for use in climate change impacts assessment. The characteristics of the transient climate change experiments which pose difficulties for the construction of climate change scenarios are discussed. Three examples of these problems are: different climate change experiments use different greenhouse gas concentration scenarios; the 'cold-start' problem makes it difficult to link future projections of climate change to a given calendar year; a drift of the climate is noticeable in the control simulations. In order to construct climate change scenarios for impacts assessment a method has therefore to be employed which addresses these problems. At present the climate modeling and climate change impacts communities are somewhat polarized in their approach to spatial scales. Current GCMs model the climate at resolutions larger than 2.5 x 3.75 degree, while the majority of impacts assessment studies are undertaken at scales below 50km (or 0.5 degree). This paper concludes by addressing the problems in bringing together these two different modeling perspectives by presenting a number of regional climate change scenarios. 35 refs., 8 figs., 2 tabs

  1. Specificity, contexts, and reference groups matter when assessing autistic traits

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stevenson, Jennifer L.; Dern, Sebastian

    2017-01-01

    Many of the personality and behavioral traits (e.g., social imperviousness, directness in conversation, lack of imagination, affinity for solitude, difficulty displaying emotions) that are known to be sensitive to context (with whom?) and reference group (according to whom?) also appear in questionnaire-based assessments of autistic traits. Therefore, two experiments investigated the effects of specifying contexts and reference groups when assessing autistic traits in autistic and non-autistic participants. Experiment 1 (124 autistic and 124 non-autistic participants) demonstrated that context matters when assessing autistic traits (F(1,244) = 267.5, p autistic people” or “I like being around autistic people”), both autistic and non-autistic participants self-reported having more autistic traits; when the context was specified as the participants’ in-group, participants reported having fewer autistic traits. Experiment 2 (82 autistic and 82 non-autistic participants) demonstrated that reference group matters when assessing autistic traits (F(2,160) = 94.38, p autistic people, I have unusual eye contact”), autistic participants reported having more autistic traits; when the reference group was their in-group, autistic participants reported having fewer autistic traits. Non-autistic participants appeared insensitive to reference group on the Social Responsiveness Scale. Exploratory analyses suggested that when neither the context nor the reference group is specified (for assessing autistic traits on the Autism-Spectrum Quotient), both autistic and non-autistic participants use the majority (“non-autistic people”) as the implied context and reference group. PMID:28192464

  2. US National Climate Assessment (NCA) Scenarios for Assessing Our Climate Future: Issues and Methodological Perspectives Background Whitepaper for Participants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moss, Richard H.; Engle, Nathan L.; Hall, John; Jacobs, Kathy; Lempert, Rob; Mearns, L. O.; Melillo, Jerry; Mote, Phil; O' Brien, Sheila; Rosenzweig, C.; Ruane, Alex; Sheppard, Stephen; Vallario, Robert W.; Wiek, Arnim; Wilbanks, Thomas

    2011-10-01

    This whitepaper is intended to provide a starting point for discussion at a workshop for the National Climate Assessment (NCA) that focuses on the use and development of scenarios. The paper will provide background needed by participants in the workshop in order to review options for developing and using scenarios in NCA. The paper briefly defines key terms and establishes a conceptual framework for developing consistent scenarios across different end uses and spatial scales. It reviews uses of scenarios in past U.S. national assessments and identifies potential users of and needs for scenarios for both the report scheduled for release in June 2013 and to support an ongoing distributed assessment process in sectors and regions around the country. Because scenarios prepared for the NCA will need to leverage existing research, the paper takes account of recent scientific advances and activities that could provide needed inputs. Finally, it considers potential approaches for providing methods, data, and other tools for assessment participants. We note that the term 'scenarios' has many meanings. An important goal of the whitepaper (and portions of the workshop agenda) is pedagogical (i.e., to compare different meanings and uses of the term and make assessment participants aware of the need to be explicit about types and uses of scenarios). In climate change research, scenarios have been used to establish bounds for future climate conditions and resulting effects on human and natural systems, given a defined level of greenhouse gas emissions. This quasi-predictive use contrasts with the way decision analysts typically use scenarios (i.e., to consider how robust alternative decisions or strategies may be to variation in key aspects of the future that are uncertain). As will be discussed, in climate change research and assessment, scenarios describe a range of aspects of the future, including major driving forces (both human activities and natural processes

  3. A Systematic Approach to Explorative Scenario Analysis in Emergy Assessment with Emphasis on Resilience

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kamp, Andreas; Østergård, Hanne

    2016-01-01

    Fossil energy depletion (specifically peak oil) and climate change are imagined to profoundly affect human civilisation. This motivates assessment of resilience, a concept associated with the ability to persist and maintain function. Explorative scenarios may be used to cast light on what......-site renewable inputs, (3) slowly renewable inputs, (4) direct labour and (5) indirect labour. We consider the existing EmA indicators of biophysical efficiency (the unit emergy value, UEV), the degree of dependence on free, renewable, natural flows of energy (%R) and the degree of dependence on local inputs...... systems that rely primarily on on-site renewable resources appear less sensitive to societal changes. The significance of labour inputs varies among scenarios, and a higher percentage of labour inputs leads to increasing UEV in a Green Tech scenario but lower UEV in more radical energy decent scenarios...

  4. Study on probability distribution of fire scenarios in risk assessment to emergency evacuation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chu Guanquan; Wang Jinhui

    2012-01-01

    Event tree analysis (ETA) is a frequently-used technique to analyze the probability of probable fire scenario. The event probability is usually characterized by definite value. It is not appropriate to use definite value as these estimates may be the result of poor quality statistics and limited knowledge. Without addressing uncertainties, ETA will give imprecise results. The credibility of risk assessment will be undermined. This paper presents an approach to address event probability uncertainties and analyze probability distribution of probable fire scenario. ETA is performed to construct probable fire scenarios. The activation time of every event is characterized as stochastic variable by considering uncertainties of fire growth rate and other input variables. To obtain probability distribution of probable fire scenario, Markov Chain is proposed to combine with ETA. To demonstrate the approach, a case study is presented.

  5. Performance Assessment of a Solar-Assisted Desiccant-Based Air Handling Unit Considering Different Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giovanni Angrisani

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, three alternative layouts (scenarios of an innovative solar-assisted hybrid desiccant-based air handling unit (AHU are investigated through dynamic simulations. Performance is evaluated with respect to a reference system and compared to those of the innovative plant without modifications. For each scenario, different collector types, surfaces and tilt angles are considered. The effect of the solar thermal energy surplus exploitation for other low-temperature uses is also investigated. The first alternative scenario consists of the recovery of the heat rejected by the condenser of the chiller to pre-heat the regeneration air. The second scenario considers the pre-heating of regeneration air with the warmer regeneration air exiting the desiccant wheel (DW. The last scenario provides pre-cooling of the process air before entering the DW. Results reveal that the plants with evacuated solar collectors (SC can ensure primary energy savings (15%–24% and avoid equivalent CO2 emissions (14%–22%, about 10 percentage points more than those with flat-plate collectors, when the solar thermal energy is used only for air conditioning and the collectors have the best tilt angle. If all of the solar thermal energy is considered, the best results with evacuated tube collectors are approximately 73% in terms of primary energy saving, 71% in terms of avoided equivalent CO2 emissions and a payback period of six years.

  6. Safety Assessment for LILW Near-Surface Disposal Facility Using the IAEA Reference Model and MASCOT Program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Hyun Joo; Park, Joo Wan; Kim, Chang Lak

    2002-01-01

    A reference scenario of vault safety case prepared by the IAEA for the near-surface disposal facility of low-and intermediate-level radioactive wastes is assessed with the MASCOT program. The appropriate conceptual models for the MASCOT implementation is developed. An assessment of groundwater pathway through a drinking well as a geosphere-biosphere interface is performed first, then biosphere pathway is analysed to estimate the radiological consequences of the disposed radionuclides based on compartment modeling approach. The validity of conceptual modeling for the reference scenario is investigated where possible comparing to the results generated by the other assessment. The result of this study shows that the typical conceptual model for groundwater pathway represented by the compartment model can be satisfactorily used for safety assessment of the entire disposal system in a consistent way. It is also shown that safety assessment of a disposal facility considering complex and various pathways would be possible by the MASCOT program

  7. Reimbursement of pharmaceuticals: Reference pricing versus health technology assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M. Drummond (Michael); B. Jönsson (Bengt); F.F.H. Rutten (Frans); T. Stargardt (Tom)

    2011-01-01

    textabstractReference pricing and health technology assessment are policies commonly applied in order to obtain more value for money from pharmaceuticals. This study focussed on decisions about the initial price and reimbursement status of innovative drugs and discussed the consequences for market

  8. Predictive no-reference assessment of video quality

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Torres Vega, M.; Mocanu, D.C.; Stavrou, S.; Liotta, A.

    2017-01-01

    Among the various means to evaluate the quality of video streams, light-weight No-Reference (NR) methods have low computation and may be executed on thin clients. Thus, these methods would be perfect candidates in cases of real-time quality assessment, automated quality control and in adaptive

  9. Scenario Simulation-Based Assessment of Trip Difficulty for Urban Residents under Rainstorm Waterlogging

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yingyue Sun

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available In this study, an experiment was performed to assess the trip difficulty for urban residents of different age groups walking in various depths of water, and the data were corroborated with the real urban rainstorm waterlogging scenarios in downtown (Daoli district Ha-Erbin (China. Mathematical models of urban rainstorm waterlogging were constructed using scenario simulation methods, aided by the GIS spatial analysis technology and hydrodynamic analysis of the waterway systems in the study area. Then these models were used to evaluate the impact of waterlogging on the safety of residents walking in the affected area. Results are summarized as: (1 for an urban rainstorm waterlogging scenario reoccurring once every 10 years, three grid regions would have waterlogging above 0.5 m moving at a velocity of 1.5 m/s. Under this scenario, waterlogging would accumulate on traffic roads only in small areas, affecting the safety and mobility of residents walking in the neighborhood; (2 for an urban rainstorm waterlogging scenario reoccurring once every 20 years, 13 grids experienced the same waterlogging situation affecting a larger area of the city; (3 for an urban rainstorm waterlogging scenario reoccurring once every 50 years, 86 grid regions were affected (waterlogging above 0.5 m moving at 1.5 m/s, and those areas would become impassable for residents.

  10. Participatory scenario development for integrated assessment of nutrient flows in a Catalan river catchment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Caille

    2007-11-01

    Full Text Available Rivers in developed regions are under significant stress due to nutrient enrichment generated mainly by human activities. Excess nitrogen and phosphorus emissions are the product of complex dynamic systems influenced by various factors such as demographic, socio-economic and technological development. Using a Catalan river catchment, La Tordera (North-East of Spain, as a case study of an integrated and interdisciplinary environmental assessment of nutrient flows, we present and discuss the development of narrative socio-economic scenarios through a participatory process for the sustainable management of the anthropogenic sources of nutrients, nitrogen and phosphorus. In this context, scenarios are an appropriate tool to assist nutrient emissions modelling, and to assess impacts, possible pathways for socio-economic development and associated uncertainties. Evaluated against the 1993–2003 baseline period, scenarios target the 2030 horizon, i.e. through the implementation process of the Water Framework Directive (Directive 2000/60/EC. After a critical examination of the methodology used in the participatory development of socio-economic scenarios, we present four possible futures (or perspectives for the Catalan river catchment conceived by stakeholders invited to a workshop. Keys to the success of such a participatory process were trust, which enhanced openness, and disagreements, which fostered the group's creativity for scenario development. The translation of narrative socio-economic scenarios into meaningful nutrient emission scenarios is also discussed. By integrating findings of natural sciences and socio-economic analysis, we aim to assist decision makers and stakeholders in evaluating optimal management strategies for the anthropogenic sources of nitrogen and phosphorus.

  11. An Integrated Hydro-Economic Modelling Framework to Evaluate Water Allocation Strategies II: Scenario Assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    George, B.; Malano, H.; Davidson, B.; Hellegers, P.J.G.J.; Bharati, L.; Sylvain, M.

    2011-01-01

    In this paper the results of an assessment of the hydrological and economic implications of reallocating water in the Musi sub-basin, a catchment within the Krishna Basin in India, are reported. Policy makers identified a number of different but plausible scenarios that could apply in the sub-basin,

  12. QTI for self-assessment and embeddedassessment in competence oriented scenarios: The Agora Case

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Santos, Patricia; Llobet, Wenceslao; Hernández-Leo, Davinia; Blat, Josep

    2009-01-01

    Santos, P., Llobet, W., Hernández-Leo, D., & Blat J. (2009). QTI for self-assessment and embeddedassessment in competence oriented scenarios: The Agora Case. Proceedings of the International Conference on Intelligent Networking and Collaborative Systems (INCoS 2009). November, 4-6, 2009, Barcelona,

  13. Livrable D6.1 of the PERSEE project : Perceptual Assessment : Definition of the scenarios

    OpenAIRE

    Wang , Junle; Gautier , Josselin; Bosc , Emilie; Li , Jing; Ricordel , Vincent

    2011-01-01

    62; Livrable D6,1 du projet ANR PERSEE; Ce rapport a été réalisé dans le cadre du projet ANR PERSEE (n° ANR-09-BLAN-0170). Exactement il correspond au livrable D6.1 du projet. Son titre : Perceptual Assessment : Definition of the scenarios

  14. Methodological progress in the development of scenarios for ENRESA-2000 Performance assessment exercise

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cortes Martin, A.

    2000-01-01

    ENRESA is carrying out a new safety assessment exercise for a deep geological spent fuel disposal facility located in granite, known as ENRESA-2000. One of the main objectives of this safety analysis is the integration and implementation of all R and D studies performed to date by ENRESA, as well as the identification of those aspects of the assessment which require further investigation. One of the main activities of this exercise is the selection and development of the scenarios to be quantitatively analysed during the assessment, where a scenario is defined as a sufficient number of FEPs (ie relevant features, events and processes) as well as their influence relationships, which explain the behaviour of the disposal system. As a result of these three methods, a definitive list of FEPs will be obtained for the ENRESA-2000 exercise. Once grouped into scenarios, these FEPs will be used to model and calculate consequences. This process of generation and development of scenarios for the ENRESA-2000 performance assessment exercise is presented in this paper. (Author)

  15. Choosing and using climate change scenarios for ecological-impact assessments and conservation decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amy K. Snover,; Nathan J. Mantua,; Littell, Jeremy; Michael A. Alexander,; Michelle M. McClure,; Janet Nye,

    2013-01-01

    Increased concern over climate change is demonstrated by the many efforts to assess climate effects and develop adaptation strategies. Scientists, resource managers, and decision makers are increasingly expected to use climate information, but they struggle with its uncertainty. With the current proliferation of climate simulations and downscaling methods, scientifically credible strategies for selecting a subset for analysis and decision making are needed. Drawing on a rich literature in climate science and impact assessment and on experience working with natural resource scientists and decision makers, we devised guidelines for choosing climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment that recognize irreducible uncertainty in climate projections and address common misconceptions about this uncertainty. This approach involves identifying primary local climate drivers by climate sensitivity of the biological system of interest; determining appropriate sources of information for future changes in those drivers; considering how well processes controlling local climate are spatially resolved; and selecting scenarios based on considering observed emission trends, relative importance of natural climate variability, and risk tolerance and time horizon of the associated decision. The most appropriate scenarios for a particular analysis will not necessarily be the most appropriate for another due to differences in local climate drivers, biophysical linkages to climate, decision characteristics, and how well a model simulates the climate parameters and processes of interest. Given these complexities, we recommend interaction among climate scientists, natural and physical scientists, and decision makers throughout the process of choosing and using climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment.

  16. Assessing the Psychometric Properties of a Scenario-Based Measure of Achievement Guilt and Shame

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Ted; Sharp, Jessica; Alexander, James

    2008-01-01

    In this study, the psychometric properties of the scenario-based Achievement Guilt and Shame Scale (AGSS) were established. The AGSS and scales assessing interpersonal guilt and shame, high standards, overgeneralization, self-criticism, self-esteem, academic self-concept, fear of failure, and tendency to respond in a socially desirable manner were…

  17. Projecting county-level populations under three future scenarios: a technical document supporting the Forest Service 2010 RPA Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stanley J. Zarnoch; H. Ken Cordell; Carter J. Betz

    2010-01-01

    County-level population projections from 2010 to 2060 are developed under three national population growth scenarios for reporting in the 2010 Renewable Resources Planning Act (RPA) Assessment. These population growth scenarios are tied to global futures scenarios defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a program within the United Nations...

  18. Development of exposure scenarios for CERCLA risk assessments at the Savannah River Site (U)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nix, D.W.; Immel, J.W.; Phifer, M.A.

    1992-01-01

    Environmental Restoration (ER) activities at the Savannah River Site (SRS) begin with the characterization of inactive hazardous, radioactive and mixed waste disposal areas by a combined Resource Conservation Recovery Act (RCRA) Facility Investigation (RFI)/Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation and Liability Act (CERCLA) Remedial Investigation (Rl) followed by evaluation of remedial alternatives in a RCRA Corrective Measures Study (CMS)/CERCLA Feasibility Study (FS). A CERCLA Baseline Risk Assessment (BRA) is performed during the RFVRI characterization to determine if there are any potential risks to human health or the environment from the waste unit. If it is determined that there is need for remedial action, a Risk Evaluation of Remedial Alternatives (RERA) is performed as part of the CMS/FS to provide a basis for selecting a remedy that is protective of human health and the environment. The SRS has numerous waste units to evaluate in the RFI/RI and CMS/FS programs and, in order to provide a consistent approach, four standard exposure scenarios were developed for exposure assessments to be used in human health risk assessments. The standard exposure scenarios are divided into two temporal categories: (a) Current Land Use in the BRA, and (b) Future Land Use in the RERA. The Current Land Use scenarios consist of the evaluation of human health risk for Industrial Exposure (of a worker not involved in waste unit characterization or remediation), a Trespasser, a hypothetical current On-site Resident, and an Off-site Resident. The Future Land Use scenario considers exposure to an On-site Resident following termination of institutional control in the absence of any remedial action (No Action Alternative), as well as evaluating potential remedial alternatives against the four scenarios from the BRA. A critical facet in the development of a BRA or RERA is the seeping of exposure scenarios that reflect actual conditions at a waste unit, rather than using

  19. Securing the future in the anthropocene: A critical analysis of the millennium ecosystem assessment scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert P. Marzec

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available This commentary analyzes the ontological character of the United Nations’ Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (2005 and its attempt to imagine business-as-usual and transformative human-environmental futures. The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA constitutes the first and most significant attempt by an international political body to incorporate environmental concerns into the field of imaginative scenario building. In addition to its lengthy report on the threatened status of planetary ecosystems, the MA contains extensive “future scenarios” that imagine how human-environmental relations might unfold over the course of the twenty-first century. These scenarios arise out of the lineage of military scenarios generated during the Cold War, and continue to inform UN assessments in the present. This commentary explores how a politico-military concern for security informs the framework of the scenarios, and limits how the MA characterizes the fundamental human act of narration. In the process, the commentary explores alternative ontologies of narration and how these may lead to more transformative narratological interventions.

  20. Scenario sensitivity analyses performed on the PRESTO-EPA LLW risk assessment models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bandrowski, M.S.

    1988-01-01

    The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is currently developing standards for the land disposal of low-level radioactive waste. As part of the standard development, EPA has performed risk assessments using the PRESTO-EPA codes. A program of sensitivity analysis was conducted on the PRESTO-EPA codes, consisting of single parameter sensitivity analysis and scenario sensitivity analysis. The results of the single parameter sensitivity analysis were discussed at the 1987 DOE LLW Management Conference. Specific scenario sensitivity analyses have been completed and evaluated. Scenario assumptions that were analyzed include: site location, disposal method, form of waste, waste volume, analysis time horizon, critical radionuclides, use of buffer zones, and global health effects

  1. Environmental implications of large-scale adoption of wind power: a scenario-based life cycle assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arvesen, Anders; Hertwich, Edgar G

    2011-01-01

    We investigate the potential environmental impacts of a large-scale adoption of wind power to meet up to 22% of the world’s growing electricity demand. The analysis builds on life cycle assessments of generic onshore and offshore wind farms, meant to represent average conditions for global deployment of wind power. We scale unit-based findings to estimate aggregated emissions of building, operating and decommissioning wind farms toward 2050, taking into account changes in the electricity mix in manufacturing. The energy scenarios investigated are the International Energy Agency’s BLUE scenarios. We estimate 1.7–2.6 Gt CO 2 -eq climate change, 2.1–3.2 Mt N-eq marine eutrophication, 9.2–14 Mt NMVOC photochemical oxidant formation, and 9.5–15 Mt SO 2 -eq terrestrial acidification impact category indicators due to global wind power in 2007–50. Assuming lifetimes 5 yr longer than reference, the total climate change indicator values are reduced by 8%. In the BLUE Map scenario, construction of new capacity contributes 64%, and repowering of existing capacity 38%, to total cumulative greenhouse gas emissions. The total emissions of wind electricity range between 4% and 14% of the direct emissions of the replaced fossil-fueled power plants. For all impact categories, the indirect emissions of displaced fossil power are larger than the total emissions caused by wind power.

  2. Environmental assessment of amine-based carbon capture Scenario modelling with life cycle assessment (LCA)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brekke, Andreas; Askham, Cecilia; Modahl, Ingunn Saur; Vold, Bjoern Ivar; Johnsen, Fredrik Moltu

    2012-07-01

    This report contains a first attempt at introducing the environmental impacts associated with amines and derivatives in a life cycle assessment (LCA) of gas power production with carbon capture and comparing these with other environmental impacts associated with the production system. The report aims to identify data gaps and methodological challenges connected both to modelling toxicity of amines and derivatives and weighting of environmental impacts. A scenario based modelling exercise was performed on a theoretical gas power plant with carbon capture, where emission levels of nitrosamines were varied between zero (gas power without CCS) to a worst case level (outside the probable range of actual carbon capture facilities). Because of extensive research and development in the areas of solvents and emissions from carbon capture facilities in the latter years, data used in the exercise may be outdated and results should therefore not be taken at face value.The results from the exercise showed: According to UseTox, emissions of nitrosamines are less important than emissions of formaldehyde with regard to toxicity related to operation of (i.e. both inputs to and outputs from) a carbon capture facility. If characterisation factors for emissions of metals are included, these outweigh all other toxic emissions in the study. None of the most recent weighting methods in LCA include characterisation factors for nitrosamines, and these are therefore not part of the environmental ranking.These results shows that the EDecIDe project has an important role to play in developing LCA methodology useful for assessing the environmental performance of amine based carbon capture in particular and CCS in general. The EDecIDe project will examine the toxicity models used in LCA in more detail, specifically UseTox. The applicability of the LCA compartment models and site specificity issues for a Norwegian/Arctic situation will be explored. This applies to the environmental compartments

  3. The Dose Assessment in the Vault Test Case of Near-Surface Disposal Facility for Drinking Water Scenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Tae Hyoung; Choi, Byung Seon; Moon, Jei Kwon [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Park, Jae Woo [Jeju National University, Jeju (Korea, Republic of)

    2012-05-15

    It is generally accepted that the radionuclides contained in the radioactive wastes will be eventually released and these will be transported to the accessible environment (near-field, far-field, biosphere). Therefore, the long-term safety assessment of near-surface radioactive waste disposal should be required by modeling the expected release of radionuclides from the repository, far-field area, and biosphere. Finally, the effective dose rate should be estimated through the released radionuclides. In this study, the radiological dose was evaluated for the reference near-surface radioactive waste disposal facility in Vaalputs, South Africa, which has been selected as a part of IAEA coordinated research program on improvement of safety assessment methodologies(ISAM). The assessment of radiological dose was performed for drinking water scenario from a well. The release and transport of radionuclides in disposal system were simulated by GoldSim. This approach suggested the time variation of effective dose over long-term period. And the results from this approach were compared with another approach method for the same facility and scenario

  4. The Dose Assessment in the Vault Test Case of Near-Surface Disposal Facility for Drinking Water Scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Tae Hyoung; Choi, Byung Seon; Moon, Jei Kwon; Park, Jae Woo

    2012-01-01

    It is generally accepted that the radionuclides contained in the radioactive wastes will be eventually released and these will be transported to the accessible environment (near-field, far-field, biosphere). Therefore, the long-term safety assessment of near-surface radioactive waste disposal should be required by modeling the expected release of radionuclides from the repository, far-field area, and biosphere. Finally, the effective dose rate should be estimated through the released radionuclides. In this study, the radiological dose was evaluated for the reference near-surface radioactive waste disposal facility in Vaalputs, South Africa, which has been selected as a part of IAEA coordinated research program on improvement of safety assessment methodologies(ISAM). The assessment of radiological dose was performed for drinking water scenario from a well. The release and transport of radionuclides in disposal system were simulated by GoldSim. This approach suggested the time variation of effective dose over long-term period. And the results from this approach were compared with another approach method for the same facility and scenario

  5. No-Reference Video Quality Assessment using MPEG Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Søgaard, Jacob; Forchhammer, Søren; Korhonen, Jari

    2013-01-01

    We present a method for No-Reference (NR) Video Quality Assessment (VQA) for decoded video without access to the bitstream. This is achieved by extracting and pooling features from a NR image quality assessment method used frame by frame. We also present methods to identify the video coding...... and estimate the video coding parameters for MPEG-2 and H.264/AVC which can be used to improve the VQA. The analysis differs from most other video coding analysis methods since it is without access to the bitstream. The results show that our proposed method is competitive with other recent NR VQA methods...

  6. Developing scenarios to assess future landslide risks: a model-based approach applied to mountainous regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vacquie, Laure; Houet, Thomas

    2016-04-01

    In the last century, European mountain landscapes have experienced significant transformations. Natural and anthropogenic changes, climate changes, touristic and industrial development, socio-economic interactions, and their implications in terms of LUCC (land use and land cover changes) have directly influenced the spatial organization and vulnerability of mountain landscapes. This study is conducted as part of the SAMCO project founded by the French National Science Agency (ANR). It aims at developing a methodological approach, combining various tools, modelling platforms and methods, to identify vulnerable regions to landslide hazards accounting for futures LUCC. It presents an integrated approach combining participative scenarios and a LULC changes simulation models to assess the combined effects of LUCC and climate change on landslide risks in the Cauterets valley (French Pyrenees Mountains) up to 2100. Through vulnerability and risk mapping, the objective is to gather information to support landscape planning and implement land use strategies with local stakeholders for risk management. Four contrasting scenarios are developed and exhibit contrasting trajectories of socio-economic development. Prospective scenarios are based on national and international socio-economic contexts relying on existing assessment reports. The methodological approach integrates knowledge from local stakeholders to refine each scenario during their construction and to reinforce their plausibility and relevance by accounting for local specificities, e.g. logging and pastoral activities, touristic development, urban planning, etc. A process-based model, the Forecasting Scenarios for Mountains (ForeSceM) model, developed on the Dinamica Ego modelling platform is used to spatially allocate futures LUCC for each prospective scenario. Concurrently, a spatial decision support tool, i.e. the SYLVACCESS model, is used to identify accessible areas for forestry in scenario projecting logging

  7. No-reference visual quality assessment for image inpainting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voronin, V. V.; Frantc, V. A.; Marchuk, V. I.; Sherstobitov, A. I.; Egiazarian, K.

    2015-03-01

    Inpainting has received a lot of attention in recent years and quality assessment is an important task to evaluate different image reconstruction approaches. In many cases inpainting methods introduce a blur in sharp transitions in image and image contours in the recovery of large areas with missing pixels and often fail to recover curvy boundary edges. Quantitative metrics of inpainting results currently do not exist and researchers use human comparisons to evaluate their methodologies and techniques. Most objective quality assessment methods rely on a reference image, which is often not available in inpainting applications. Usually researchers use subjective quality assessment by human observers. It is difficult and time consuming procedure. This paper focuses on a machine learning approach for no-reference visual quality assessment for image inpainting based on the human visual property. Our method is based on observation that Local Binary Patterns well describe local structural information of the image. We use a support vector regression learned on assessed by human images to predict perceived quality of inpainted images. We demonstrate how our predicted quality value correlates with qualitative opinion in a human observer study. Results are shown on a human-scored dataset for different inpainting methods.

  8. No-Reference Video Quality Assessment by HEVC Codec Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Huang, Xin; Søgaard, Jacob; Forchhammer, Søren

    2015-01-01

    This paper proposes a No-Reference (NR) Video Quality Assessment (VQA) method for videos subject to the distortion given by High Efficiency Video Coding (HEVC). The proposed assessment can be performed either as a BitstreamBased (BB) method or as a Pixel-Based (PB). It extracts or estimates...... the transform coefficients, estimates the distortion, and assesses the video quality. The proposed scheme generates VQA features based on Intra coded frames, and then maps features using an Elastic Net to predict subjective video quality. A set of HEVC coded 4K UHD sequences are tested. Results show...... that the quality scores computed by the proposed method are highly correlated with the subjective assessment....

  9. Development of a computer tool to support scenario analysis for safety assessment of HLW geological disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Makino, Hitoshi; Kawamura, Makoto; Wakasugi, Keiichiro; Okubo, Hiroo; Takase, Hiroyasu

    2007-02-01

    In 'H12 Project to Establishing Technical Basis for HLW Disposal in Japan' a systematic approach that was based on an international consensus was adopted to develop scenarios to be considered in performance assessment. Adequacy of the approach was, in general term, appreciated through the domestic and international peer review. However it was also suggested that there were issues related to improving transparency and traceability of the procedure. To achieve this, improvement of scenario analysis method has been studied. In this study, based on an improvement method for treatment of FEP interaction a computer tool to support scenario analysis by specialists of performance assessment has been developed. Anticipated effects of this tool are to improve efficiency of complex and time consuming scenario analysis work and to reduce possibility of human errors in this work. This tool also enables to describe interactions among a vast number of FEPs and the related information as interaction matrix, and analysis those interactions from a variety of perspectives. (author)

  10. Comparison of the results of climate change impact assessment between RCP8.5 and SSP2 scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, D. K.; Park, J. H.; Park, C.; Kim, S.

    2017-12-01

    Climate change scenarios are mainly published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and include SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenario) scenarios (IPCC Third Report), RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) scenarios (IPCC 5th Report), and SSP (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) scenarios. Currently widely used RCP scenarios are based on how future greenhouse gas concentrations will change. In contrast, SSP scenarios are that predict how climate change will change in response to socio-economic indicators such as population, economy, land use, and energy change. In this study, based on RCP 8.5 climate data, we developed a new Korean scenario using the future social and economic scenarios of SSP2. In the development of the scenario, not only Korea's emissions but also China and Japan's emissions were considered in terms of space. In addition, GHG emissions and air pollutant emissions were taken into consideration. Using the newly developed scenarios, the impacts assessments of the forest were evaluated and the impacts were evaluated using the RCP scenarios. The average precipitation is similar to the SSP2 scenario and the RCP8.5 scenario, but the SSP2 scenario shows the maximum value is lower than RCP8.5 scenario. This is because the SSP2 scenario simulates the summer precipitation weakly. The temperature distribution is similar for both scenarios, and it can be seen that the average temperature in the 2090s is higher than that in the 2050s. At present, forest net primary productivity of Korea is 693 tC/km2, and it is 679 tC/km2 when SSP2 scenario is applied. Also, the damage of forest by ozone is about 4.1-5.1%. On the other hand, when SSP2 scenario is applied, the forest net primary productivity of Korea is 607 tC/km2 and the forest net primary productivity of RCP8.5 scenario is 657 tC/km2. The analysis shows that the damage caused by climate change is reduced by 14.2% for the SSP2 scenario and 6.9% for the RCP8.5 scenario. The damage caused

  11. Scenario Methodology for Modelling of Future Landscape Developments as Basis for Assessing Ecosystem Services

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthias Rosenberg

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available The ecosystems of our intensively used European landscapes produce a variety of natural goods and services for the benefit of humankind, and secure the basics and quality of life. Because these ecosystems are still undergoing fundamental changes, the interest of the society is to know more about future developments and their ecological impacts. To describe and analyze these changes, scenarios can be developed and an assessment of the ecological changes can be carried out subsequently. In the project „Landscape Saxony 2050“; a methodology for the construction of exploratory scenarios was worked out. The presented methodology provides a possibility to identify the driving forces (socio-cultural, economic and ecological conditions of the landscape development. It allows to indicate possible future paths which lead to a change of structures and processes in the landscape and can influence the capability to provide ecosystem services. One essential component of the applied technique is that an approach for the assessment of the effects of the landscape changes on ecosystem services is integrated into the developed scenario methodology. Another is, that the methodology is strong designed as participatory, i.e. stakeholders are integrated actively. The method is a seven phase model which provides the option for the integration of the stakeholders‘ participation at all levels of scenario development. The scenario framework was applied to the district of Görlitz, an area of 2100 sq km located at the eastern border of Germany. The region is affected by strong demographic as well as economic changes. The core issue focused on the examination of landscape change in terms of biodiversity. Together with stakeholders, a trend scenario and two alternative scenarios were developed. The changes of the landscape structure are represented in story lines, maps and tables. On basis of the driving forces of the issue areas „cultural / social values“ and

  12. The reference energy scenario of the DGEMP for 2030,there's many a slip twixt the cup and the lip; Le scenario energetique de reference de la DGEMP pour 2030, ou il y a loin de la coupe aux levres

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Acket, C.; Nifenecker, H

    2008-05-15

    The authors discuss the energy reference scenario for 2030, proposed by the DGEMP. This scenario is published every 4 years. It represents the french energy situation in 2030, if no new energy policy was decided, in particularly no new measure from the Grenelle of the environment. The scenario supposes also no energy crisis in the fossil fuels supply and the fuels prices. In this topic, the objective of a contribution of 20% of renewable energies in the final energy consumption, seems possible. (A.L.B.)

  13. An inquiry into the potential of scenario analysis for dealing with uncertainty in strategic environmental assessment in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhu Zhixi; Bai, Hongtao; Xu He; Zhu Tan

    2011-01-01

    Strategic environmental assessment (SEA) inherently needs to address greater levels of uncertainty in the formulation and implementation processes of strategic decisions, compared with project environmental impact assessment. The range of uncertainties includes internal and external factors of the complex system that is concerned in the strategy. Scenario analysis is increasingly being used to cope with uncertainty in SEA. Following a brief introduction of scenarios and scenario analysis, this paper examines the rationale for scenario analysis in SEA in the context of China. The state of the art associated with scenario analysis applied to SEA in China was reviewed through four SEA case analyses. Lessons learned from these cases indicated the word 'scenario' appears to be abused and the scenario-based methods appear to be misused due to the lack of understanding of an uncertain future and scenario analysis. However, good experiences were also drawn on, regarding how to integrate scenario analysis into the SEA process in China, how to cope with driving forces including uncertainties, how to combine qualitative scenario storylines with quantitative impact predictions, and how to conduct assessments and propose recommendations based on scenarios. Additionally, the ways to improve the application of this tool in SEA were suggested. We concluded by calling for further methodological research on this issue and more practices.

  14. On the Assessment of Global Terrestrial Reference Frame Temporal Variations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ampatzidis, Dimitrios; Koenig, Rolf; Zhu, Shengyuan

    2015-04-01

    Global Terrestrial Reference Frames (GTRFs) as the International Terrestrial Reference Frame (ITRF) provide reliable 4-D position information (3-D coordinates and their evolution through time). The given 3-D velocities play a significant role in precise position acquisition and are estimated from long term coordinate time series from the space-geodetic techniques DORIS, GNSS, SLR, and VLBI. GTRFs temporal evolution is directly connected with their internal stability: The more intense and inhomogeneous velocity field, the less stable TRF is derived. The assessment of the quality of the GTRF is mainly realized by comparing it to each individual technique's reference frame. E.g the comparison of GTRFs to SLR-only based TRF gives the sense of the ITRF stability with respect to the Geocenter and scale and their associated rates respectively. In addition, the comparison of ITRF to the VLBI-only based TRF can be used for the scale validation. However, till now there is not any specified methodology for the total assessment (in terms of origin, orientation and scale respectively) of the temporal evolution and GTRFs associated accuracy. We present a new alternative diagnostic tool for the assessment of GTRFs temporal evolution based on the well-known time-dependent Helmert type transformation formula (three shifts, three rotations and scale rates respectively). The advantage of the new methodology relies on the fact that it uses the full velocity field of the TRF and therefore all points not just the ones common to different techniques. It also examines simultaneously rates of origin, orientation and scale. The methodology is presented and implemented to the two existing GTRFs on the market (ITRF and DTRF which is computed from DGFI) , the results are discussed. The results also allow to compare directly each GTRF dynamic behavior. Furthermore, the correlations of the estimated parameters can also provide useful information to the proposed GTRFs assessment scheme.

  15. Environmental assessment of low-organic waste landfill scenarios by means of life-cycle assessment modelling (EASEWASTE)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Manfredi, Simone; Christensen, Thomas Højlund; Scharff, H.

    2010-01-01

    for in the life-cycle impact assessment calculation, the small gas generation in low-organic waste landfills reduced the actual potential for energy generation and therefore the environmental savings obtained were reduced proportionally. Groundwater pollution from input of leachate was also evaluated and the WHO......The environmental performance of two low-organic waste landfill scenarios ('low-organic-energy' and 'low-organic-flare') was developed and compared with two household waste landfill scenarios ('household-energy' and 'household-flare') by means of LCA-modelling. The LCA-modelling was made for 1...

  16. No-Reference Video Quality Assessment using Codec Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Søgaard, Jacob; Forchhammer, Søren; Korhonen, Jari

    2015-01-01

    types of videos, estimating the level of quantization used in the I-frames, and exploiting this information to assess the video quality. In order to do this for H.264/AVC, the distribution of the DCT-coefficients after intra-prediction and deblocking are modeled. To obtain VQA features for H.264/AVC, we......A no-reference video quality assessment (VQA) method is presented for videos distorted by H.264/AVC and MPEG-2. The assessment is performed without access to the bit-stream. Instead we analyze and estimate coefficients based on decoded pixels. The approach involves distinguishing between the two...... propose a novel estimation method of the quantization in H.264/AVC videos without bitstream access, which can also be used for Peak Signalto-Noise Ratio (PSNR) estimation. The results from the MPEG-2 and H.264/AVC analysis are mapped to a perceptual measure of video quality by Support Vector Regression...

  17. Assessing scenario and parametric uncertainties in risk analysis: a model uncertainty audit

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tarantola, S.; Saltelli, A.; Draper, D.

    1999-01-01

    In the present study a process of model audit is addressed on a computational model used for predicting maximum radiological doses to humans in the field of nuclear waste disposal. Global uncertainty and sensitivity analyses are employed to assess output uncertainty and to quantify the contribution of parametric and scenario uncertainties to the model output. These tools are of fundamental importance for risk analysis and decision making purposes

  18. Scenario based approach for multiple source Tsunami Hazard assessment for Sines, Portugal

    OpenAIRE

    M. Wronna; R. Omira; M. A. Baptista

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, we present a scenario-based approach for tsunami hazard assessment for the city and harbour of Sines – Portugal, one of the test-sites of project ASTARTE. Sines holds one of the most important deep-water ports which contains oil-bearing, petrochemical, liquid bulk, coal and container terminals. The port and its industrial infrastructures are facing the ocean southwest towards the main seismogenic sources. This work considers two different seis...

  19. Choosing and using climate-change scenarios for ecological-impact assessments and conservation decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Snover, Amy K; Mantua, Nathan J; Littell, Jeremy S; Alexander, Michael A; McClure, Michelle M; Nye, Janet

    2013-12-01

    Increased concern over climate change is demonstrated by the many efforts to assess climate effects and develop adaptation strategies. Scientists, resource managers, and decision makers are increasingly expected to use climate information, but they struggle with its uncertainty. With the current proliferation of climate simulations and downscaling methods, scientifically credible strategies for selecting a subset for analysis and decision making are needed. Drawing on a rich literature in climate science and impact assessment and on experience working with natural resource scientists and decision makers, we devised guidelines for choosing climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment that recognize irreducible uncertainty in climate projections and address common misconceptions about this uncertainty. This approach involves identifying primary local climate drivers by climate sensitivity of the biological system of interest; determining appropriate sources of information for future changes in those drivers; considering how well processes controlling local climate are spatially resolved; and selecting scenarios based on considering observed emission trends, relative importance of natural climate variability, and risk tolerance and time horizon of the associated decision. The most appropriate scenarios for a particular analysis will not necessarily be the most appropriate for another due to differences in local climate drivers, biophysical linkages to climate, decision characteristics, and how well a model simulates the climate parameters and processes of interest. Given these complexities, we recommend interaction among climate scientists, natural and physical scientists, and decision makers throughout the process of choosing and using climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment. Selección y Uso de Escenarios de Cambio Climático para Estudios de Impacto Ecológico y Decisiones de Conservación. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

  20. Safety case for the disposal of spent nuclear fuel at Olkiluoto. Assessment of radionuclide release scenarios for the repository system 2012

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2012-12-01

    account the uncertainty in timing and in the number of canisters potentially affected. Peak normalised releases for all calculation cases for the base, variant and disturbance scenarios are below the nuclide-specific constraints for the radioactive releases to the environment, as set out by the Finnish regulator, generally by more than an order of magnitude, even taking into account the possibility of multiple canister failures. Possible binary combinations of scenarios have been considered. Many can be excluded from detailed analysis on qualitative grounds. Where it is appropriate to sum the release rate of two different scenarios, the combined release rate to the surface environment still does not exceed the regulatory constraint. Finnish regulations also require an assessment of doses to humans, plants and animals, which should extend over a period in which such an assessment can be performed with sufficient reliability, with a minimum of several millennia. As a consequence, the period up to 10,000 years is referred to by Posiva as the dose criteria time window. Releases to the surface environment within the dose criteria time window are found to occur in the base scenario Reference Case, in some sensitivity cases for the base and variant scenarios and in one what-if case for the disturbance scenarios (AIC-LI). Biosphere modelling is carried out for these calculation cases and reported in Biosphere Assessment. (orig.)

  1. Safety case for the disposal of spent nuclear fuel at Olkiluoto. Assessment of radionuclide release scenarios for the repository system 2012

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2012-12-15

    , taking into account the uncertainty in timing and in the number of canisters potentially affected. Peak normalised releases for all calculation cases for the base, variant and disturbance scenarios are below the nuclide-specific constraints for the radioactive releases to the environment, as set out by the Finnish regulator, generally by more than an order of magnitude, even taking into account the possibility of multiple canister failures. Possible binary combinations of scenarios have been considered. Many can be excluded from detailed analysis on qualitative grounds. Where it is appropriate to sum the release rate of two different scenarios, the combined release rate to the surface environment still does not exceed the regulatory constraint. Finnish regulations also require an assessment of doses to humans, plants and animals, which should extend over a period in which such an assessment can be performed with sufficient reliability, with a minimum of several millennia. As a consequence, the period up to 10,000 years is referred to by Posiva as the dose criteria time window. Releases to the surface environment within the dose criteria time window are found to occur in the base scenario Reference Case, in some sensitivity cases for the base and variant scenarios and in one what-if case for the disturbance scenarios (AIC-LI). Biosphere modelling is carried out for these calculation cases and reported in Biosphere Assessment. (orig.)

  2. The EnerGEO Platform of Integrated Assessment (PIA). Environmental assessment of scenarios as a web service

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blanc, Isabelle; Gschwind, Benoit; Lefevre, Mireille

    2013-01-01

    With the International Energy Agency estimating that global energy demand will increase between 40 and 50 percent by 2030 (compared to 2003), scientists and policymakers are concerned about the sustainability of the current energy system and what environmental pressures might result from the development of future energy systems. EnerGEO is an ongoing FP7 Project (2009-2013) which assesses the current and future impact of energy use on the environment by linking environmental observation systems with the processes involved in exploiting energy resources. The idea of this European project is to determine how low carbon scenarios, and in particular scenarios with a high share of renewable electricity, affect emissions of air pollutants and greenhouse gases (GHG) and contribute to mitigation of negative energy system impacts on human health and ecosystems. A Platform of Integrated Assessment (PIA) has been elaborated to provide impact results for a selection of scenarios via a set of models (large-scale energy models, Life Cycle Assessment models,..). This PIA is currently available through a web service. The concept of the PIA is detailed and to illustrate its interest, a set of results is given with the use of the simulation mode of the European version of GAINS for a selection of scenarios. (orig.)

  3. Safety case methodology for decommissioning of research reactors. Assessment of the long term impact of a flooding scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vladescu, G.; Banciu, O.

    1999-01-01

    The paper contains the assessment methodology of a Safety Case fuel decommissioning of research reactors, taking into account the international approach principles. The paper also includes the assessment of a flooding scenario for a decommissioned research reactor (stage 1 of decommissioning). The scenario presents the flooding of reactor basement, radionuclide migration through environment and long term radiological impact for public. (authors)

  4. TURVA-2012: Assessment of radionuclide release scenarios for the repository system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, Paul; Poteri, Antti; Nordman, Henrik; Cormenzana, Jose Luis; Snellman, Margit; Marcos, Nuria; Hjerpe, Thomas; Koskinen, Lasse

    2014-01-01

    TURVA-2012 is Posiva's safety case in support of the Preliminary Safety Analysis Report (PSAR) and application for a construction licence for a repository for disposal of spent nuclear fuel at the Olkiluoto site in south-western Finland. This paper gives a summary of the analyses of the radionuclide release scenarios formulated in a companion paper, TURVA-2012: Formulation of Radionuclide Release Scenarios (Marcos, 2014). The scenarios and the analyses take into account major uncertainties in the initial state of the barriers and possible paths for the evolution of the repository system identified in a further paper: TURVA-2012: Performance Assessment (Hellae, 2014). For each scenario, calculation cases are analysed to evaluate compliance of the proposed repository with regulatory requirements on radiological protection, as well as to illustrate the impact of specific uncertainties or combinations of uncertainties on the calculated results. Each case illustrates different possibilities for how the repository might evolve and perform over time, taking into account uncertainties in the models and parameter values used to represent radionuclide release, retention and transport and, for biosphere assessment calculation cases, radiation exposure. The calculation cases each address a single, failed canister, where three possible modes of failure are considered: - The presence of an initial defect in the copper overpack of the canister that penetrates the overpack completely (subsequent corrosion of the insert may then lead to an enlargement of the defect). - Corrosion of the copper overpack, which occurs most rapidly in scenarios in which buffer density is reduced, e.g. by erosion. - Shear movements on fractures intersecting the deposition holes. However, the likelihood and consequences of more than one canister failure occurring during the assessment time fame are also considered, generally based on the findings from the single canister calculations. Quantitative

  5. A methodology for analysing human errors of commission in accident scenarios for risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, J. H.; Jung, W. D.; Park, J. K

    2003-01-01

    As the concern on the impact of the operator's inappropriate interventions, so-called Errors Of Commissions(EOCs), on the plant safety has been raised, the interest in the identification and analysis of EOC events from the risk assessment perspective becomes increasing accordingly. To this purpose, we propose a new methodology for identifying and analysing human errors of commission that might be caused from the failures in situation assessment and decision making during accident progressions given an initiating event. The proposed methodology was applied to the accident scenarios of YGN 3 and 4 NPPs, which resulted in about 10 EOC situations that need careful attention

  6. Design and assessment of long-term sustainable transport system scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nijkamp, P.; Rienstra, S.A.; Vleugel, J.M. [Systems and Control Group, Faculty of Mechanical and Marine Engineering, Delft University of Technology, Delft (Netherlands)

    1995-03-01

    Current trends in transport indicate that the system is moving away from a sustainable development because of a sky-rocketing mobility growth and a modal shift towards the most polluting modes. These trends are reinforced by several underlying factors, which may be found in the spatial, institutional, economic and social/psychological fields. It may be concluded that major changes in technology, public policy as well as in the behaviour of individuals are necessary to make the transport system more compatible with environmental sustainability. This provokes the need for assessing a set of future images for transport in relation to the environment. In this paper expert scenarios are constructed on the basis of the recently developed `spider model`. Based on a set of distinct characteristics of a transport system, represented by eight axes in the above mentioned fields, an evaluation framework is constructed, which visualizes the main discussed driving forces. Scenarios can be constructed by connecting points on the successive axes, which may lead to entirely different transport systems. An expected and desired scenario are constructed next, by means of opinions of Dutch transport experts, which have been investigated by means of a nation-wide survey. The expected scenario indicates that many current trends will continue, while the transport system is largely the same as the current one. The desired scenario on the other hand, gives a more collective system, in which also many new modes are operating. The conclusion is that expected trends may not lead to a sustainable transport system, but that the desired road will be very hard to follow. 5 figs., 2 tabs., 27 refs.

  7. Assessment of doses due to radionuclides in sewage sludge for different scenario of its use

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lydagiene, R.; Morkunas, G.; Pilkyte, L.

    2003-01-01

    Assessment of doses due to radionuclides in sewage sludge for different scenarios of its use was made for sewage plant storage in Visaginas, Rimses district, Karlu village. Calculations of individual and collective doses were made on the basis of results of measurements. Two potential exposure pathways from radionuclides in sewage sludge were considered and two scenarios descriptions were made. The first scenario is when the sludge is using for fertilization, and the second one - the sludge is covered with soil. Using program Environ-Calc made by American Chemical Society the number of samples needed to be sampled was optimized. 38 sewage samples were collected for gamma spectrometrical measurements and 10 samples - for measurements of tritium activity. Results of measurements pointed out that the sludge has no higher activity of tritium that background ones. The only two man made radionuclides 60 Co and 137 Cs were found by gamma spectrometry in the sludge. Average activity for the fresh weight in the samples of 60 Co was 42 Bq/kg, 137 Cs - 10 Bq/kg. Concentration of natural radionuclides was in the same range as in any soil samples from Lithuania. The dose for the first scenario for 1 years child will be 12 μSv, for adult - 9,4 μSv. In another scenario doses for the workers in sewage plant were estimated as 0,76 mSv. Collective dose in case of use of sewage sludge for fertilizers will be 4,4*10 -3 man Sv. The lowest doses will be when the sewage storage is covered using soil. (author)

  8. Scenario for a Short-Term Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA in Chiayi, Taiwan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chung-Han Chan

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Using seismic activity and the Meishan earthquake sequence that occurred from 1904 to 1906, a scenario for short-term probabilistic seismic hazards in the Chiayi region of Taiwan is assessed. The long-term earthquake occurrence rate in Taiwan was evaluated using a smoothing kernel. The highest seismicity rate was calculated around the Chiayi region. To consider earthquake interactions, the rate-and-state friction model was introduced to estimate the seismicity rate evolution due to the Coulomb stress change. As imparted by the 1904 Touliu earthquake, stress changes near the 1906 Meishan and Yangshuigang epicenters was higher than the magnitude of tidal triggering. With regard to the impact of the Meishan earthquake, the region close to the Yangshuigang earthquake epicenter had a +0.75 bar stress increase. The results indicated significant interaction between the three damage events. Considering the path and site effect using ground motion prediction equations, a probabilistic seismic hazard in the form of a hazard evolution and a hazard map was assessed. A significant elevation in hazards following the three earthquakes in the sequence was determined. The results illustrate a possible scenario for seismic hazards in the Chiayi region which may take place repeatly in the future. Such scenario provides essential information on earthquake preparation, devastation estimations, emergency sheltering, utility restoration, and structure reconstruction.

  9. Quantitative assessment of safety barrier performance in the prevention of domino scenarios triggered by fire

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Landucci, Gabriele; Argenti, Francesca; Tugnoli, Alessandro; Cozzani, Valerio

    2015-01-01

    The evolution of domino scenarios triggered by fire critically depends on the presence and the performance of safety barriers that may have the potential to prevent escalation, delaying or avoiding the heat-up of secondary targets. The aim of the present study is the quantitative assessment of safety barrier performance in preventing the escalation of fired domino scenarios. A LOPA (layer of protection analysis) based methodology, aimed at the definition and quantification of safety barrier performance in the prevention of escalation was developed. Data on the more common types of safety barriers were obtained in order to characterize the effectiveness and probability of failure on demand of relevant safety barriers. The methodology was exemplified with a case study. The results obtained define a procedure for the estimation of safety barrier performance in the prevention of fire escalation in domino scenarios. - Highlights: • We developed a methodology for the quantitative assessment of safety barriers. • We focused on safety barriers aimed at preventing domino effect triggered by fire. • We obtained data on effectiveness and availability of the safety barriers. • The methodology was exemplified with a case study of industrial interest. • The results showed the role of safety barriers in preventing fired domino escalation

  10. Life cycle assessment of four municipal solid waste management scenarios in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong, Jinglan; Li, Xiangzhi; Zhaojie, Cui

    2010-11-01

    A life cycle assessment was carried out to estimate the environmental impact of municipal solid waste. Four scenarios mostly used in China were compared to assess the influence of various technologies on environment: (1) landfill, (2) incineration, (3) composting plus landfill, and (4) composting plus incineration. In all scenarios, the technologies significantly contribute to global warming and increase the adverse impact of non-carcinogens on the environment. The technologies played only a small role in the impact of carcinogens, respiratory inorganics, terrestrial ecotoxicity, and non-renewable energy. Similarly, the influence of the technologies on the way other elements affect the environment was ignorable. Specifically, the direct emissions from the operation processes involved played an important role in most scenarios except for incineration, while potential impact generated from transport, infrastructure and energy consumption were quite small. In addition, in the global warming category, highest potential impact was observed in landfill because of the direct methane gas emissions. Electricity recovery from methane gas was the key factor for reducing the potential impact of global warming. Therefore, increasing the use of methane gas to recover electricity is highly recommended to reduce the adverse impact of landfills on the environment. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Life cycle assessment of four municipal solid waste management scenarios in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hong Jinglan; Li Xiangzhi; Zhaojie Cui

    2010-01-01

    A life cycle assessment was carried out to estimate the environmental impact of municipal solid waste. Four scenarios mostly used in China were compared to assess the influence of various technologies on environment: (1) landfill, (2) incineration, (3) composting plus landfill, and (4) composting plus incineration. In all scenarios, the technologies significantly contribute to global warming and increase the adverse impact of non-carcinogens on the environment. The technologies played only a small role in the impact of carcinogens, respiratory inorganics, terrestrial ecotoxicity, and non-renewable energy. Similarly, the influence of the technologies on the way other elements affect the environment was ignorable. Specifically, the direct emissions from the operation processes involved played an important role in most scenarios except for incineration, while potential impact generated from transport, infrastructure and energy consumption were quite small. In addition, in the global warming category, highest potential impact was observed in landfill because of the direct methane gas emissions. Electricity recovery from methane gas was the key factor for reducing the potential impact of global warming. Therefore, increasing the use of methane gas to recover electricity is highly recommended to reduce the adverse impact of landfills on the environment.

  12. Scenario-based earthquake hazard and risk assessment for Baku (Azerbaijan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Babayev

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available A rapid growth of population, intensive civil and industrial building, land and water instabilities (e.g. landslides, significant underground water level fluctuations, and the lack of public awareness regarding seismic hazard contribute to the increase of vulnerability of Baku (the capital city of the Republic of Azerbaijan to earthquakes. In this study, we assess an earthquake risk in the city determined as a convolution of seismic hazard (in terms of the surface peak ground acceleration, PGA, vulnerability (due to building construction fragility, population features, the gross domestic product per capita, and landslide's occurrence, and exposure of infrastructure and critical facilities. The earthquake risk assessment provides useful information to identify the factors influencing the risk. A deterministic seismic hazard for Baku is analysed for four earthquake scenarios: near, far, local, and extreme events. The seismic hazard models demonstrate the level of ground shaking in the city: PGA high values are predicted in the southern coastal and north-eastern parts of the city and in some parts of the downtown. The PGA attains its maximal values for the local and extreme earthquake scenarios. We show that the quality of buildings and the probability of their damage, the distribution of urban population, exposure, and the pattern of peak ground acceleration contribute to the seismic risk, meanwhile the vulnerability factors play a more prominent role for all earthquake scenarios. Our results can allow elaborating strategic countermeasure plans for the earthquake risk mitigation in the Baku city.

  13. Climate change impact assessment on Veneto and Friuli plain groundwater. Part I: An integrated modeling approach for hazard scenario construction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baruffi, F.; Cisotto, A.; Cimolino, A.; Ferri, M.; Monego, M.; Norbiato, D.; Cappelletto, M.; Bisaglia, M.; Pretner, A.; Galli, A.; Scarinci, A.; Marsala, V.; Panelli, C.; Gualdi, S.; Bucchignani, E.; Torresan, S.; Pasini, S.; Critto, A.

    2012-01-01

    Climate change impacts on water resources, particularly groundwater, is a highly debated topic worldwide, triggering international attention and interest from both researchers and policy makers due to its relevant link with European water policy directives (e.g. 2000/60/EC and 2007/118/EC) and related environmental objectives. The understanding of long-term impacts of climate variability and change is therefore a key challenge in order to address effective protection measures and to implement sustainable management of water resources. This paper presents the modeling approach adopted within the Life + project TRUST (Tool for Regional-scale assessment of groUndwater Storage improvement in adaptation to climaTe change) in order to provide climate change hazard scenarios for the shallow groundwater of high Veneto and Friuli Plain, Northern Italy. Given the aim to evaluate potential impacts on water quantity and quality (e.g. groundwater level variation, decrease of water availability for irrigation, variations of nitrate infiltration processes), the modeling approach integrated an ensemble of climate, hydrologic and hydrogeologic models running from the global to the regional scale. Global and regional climate models and downscaling techniques were used to make climate simulations for the reference period 1961–1990 and the projection period 2010–2100. The simulation of the recent climate was performed using observed radiative forcings, whereas the projections have been done prescribing the radiative forcings according to the IPCC A1B emission scenario. The climate simulations and the downscaling, then, provided the precipitation, temperatures and evapo-transpiration fields used for the impact analysis. Based on downscaled climate projections, 3 reference scenarios for the period 2071–2100 (i.e. the driest, the wettest and the mild year) were selected and used to run a regional geomorphoclimatic and hydrogeological model. The final output of the model ensemble

  14. Climate change impact assessment on Veneto and Friuli plain groundwater. Part I: An integrated modeling approach for hazard scenario construction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baruffi, F. [Autorita di Bacino dei Fiumi dell' Alto Adriatico, Cannaregio 4314, 30121 Venice (Italy); Cisotto, A., E-mail: segreteria@adbve.it [Autorita di Bacino dei Fiumi dell' Alto Adriatico, Cannaregio 4314, 30121 Venice (Italy); Cimolino, A.; Ferri, M.; Monego, M.; Norbiato, D.; Cappelletto, M.; Bisaglia, M. [Autorita di Bacino dei Fiumi dell' Alto Adriatico, Cannaregio 4314, 30121 Venice (Italy); Pretner, A.; Galli, A. [SGI Studio Galli Ingegneria, via della Provvidenza 13, 35030 Sarmeola di Rubano (PD) (Italy); Scarinci, A., E-mail: andrea.scarinci@sgi-spa.it [SGI Studio Galli Ingegneria, via della Provvidenza 13, 35030 Sarmeola di Rubano (PD) (Italy); Marsala, V.; Panelli, C. [SGI Studio Galli Ingegneria, via della Provvidenza 13, 35030 Sarmeola di Rubano (PD) (Italy); Gualdi, S., E-mail: silvio.gualdi@bo.ingv.it [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), via Augusto Imperatore 16, 73100 Lecce (Italy); Bucchignani, E., E-mail: e.bucchignani@cira.it [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), via Augusto Imperatore 16, 73100 Lecce (Italy); Torresan, S., E-mail: torresan@cmcc.it [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), via Augusto Imperatore 16, 73100 Lecce (Italy); Pasini, S., E-mail: sara.pasini@stud.unive.it [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), via Augusto Imperatore 16, 73100 Lecce (Italy); Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistics, University Ca' Foscari Venice, Calle Larga S. Marta 2137, 30123 Venice (Italy); Critto, A., E-mail: critto@unive.it [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), via Augusto Imperatore 16, 73100 Lecce (Italy); Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistics, University Ca' Foscari Venice, Calle Larga S. Marta 2137, 30123 Venice (Italy); and others

    2012-12-01

    Climate change impacts on water resources, particularly groundwater, is a highly debated topic worldwide, triggering international attention and interest from both researchers and policy makers due to its relevant link with European water policy directives (e.g. 2000/60/EC and 2007/118/EC) and related environmental objectives. The understanding of long-term impacts of climate variability and change is therefore a key challenge in order to address effective protection measures and to implement sustainable management of water resources. This paper presents the modeling approach adopted within the Life + project TRUST (Tool for Regional-scale assessment of groUndwater Storage improvement in adaptation to climaTe change) in order to provide climate change hazard scenarios for the shallow groundwater of high Veneto and Friuli Plain, Northern Italy. Given the aim to evaluate potential impacts on water quantity and quality (e.g. groundwater level variation, decrease of water availability for irrigation, variations of nitrate infiltration processes), the modeling approach integrated an ensemble of climate, hydrologic and hydrogeologic models running from the global to the regional scale. Global and regional climate models and downscaling techniques were used to make climate simulations for the reference period 1961-1990 and the projection period 2010-2100. The simulation of the recent climate was performed using observed radiative forcings, whereas the projections have been done prescribing the radiative forcings according to the IPCC A1B emission scenario. The climate simulations and the downscaling, then, provided the precipitation, temperatures and evapo-transpiration fields used for the impact analysis. Based on downscaled climate projections, 3 reference scenarios for the period 2071-2100 (i.e. the driest, the wettest and the mild year) were selected and used to run a regional geomorphoclimatic and hydrogeological model. The final output of the model ensemble produced

  15. Model for assessing alpha doses for a Reference Japanese Man

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kawamura, Hisao

    1993-01-01

    In view of the development of the nuclear fuel cycle in this country, it is urgently important to establish dose assessment models and related human and environmental parameters for long-lived radionuclides. In the current program, intake and body content of actinides (Pu, Th, U) and related alpha-emitting nuclides (Ra and daughters) have been studied as well as physiological aspects of Reference Japanese Man as the basic model of man for dosimetry. The ultimate object is to examine applicability of the existing models particularly recommended by the ICRP for workers to members of the public. The result of an interlaboratory intercomparison of 239 Pu + 240 Pu determination including our result was published. Alpha-spectrometric determinations of 226 Ra in bone yielded repesentative bone concentration level in Tokyo and Ra-Ca O.R. (bone-diet) which appear consistent with the literature value for Sapporo and Kyoto by Ohno using a Rn emanation method. Specific effective energies for alpha radiation from 226 Ra and daughters were calculated using the ICRP dosimetric model for bone incorporating masses of source and target organs of Reference Japanese Man. Reference Japanese data including the adult, adolescent, child and infant of both sexes was extensively and intensively studied by Tanaka as part of the activities of the ICRP Task Group on Reference Man Revision. Normal data for the physical measurements, mass and dimension of internal organs and body surfaces and some of the body composition were analysed viewing the nutritional data in the Japanese population. Some of the above works are to be continued. (author)

  16. The development of climatic scenarios for assessing impacts of climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carter, T; Tuomenvirta, H [Finnish Meteorological Inst., Helsinki (Finland); Posch, M [National Inst. of Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven (Netherlands)

    1996-12-31

    There is a growing recognition that mitigation measures for limiting future global changes in climate due to the enhanced greenhouse effect are unlikely to prevent some changes from occurring. Thus, if climate changes appear to be unavoidable, there is an increased need to evaluate their likely impacts on natural systems and human activities. Most impacts of climate change need to be examined at a regional scale, and their assessment requires up-to-date information on future regional climate changes. Unfortunately, accurate predictions of regional climate are not yet available. Instead, it is customary to construct climatic scenarios, which are plausible representations of future climate based on the best available information. This presentation outlines seven principles of climatic scenario development for impact studies, briefly describing some of the strengths and weaknesses of available methods and then illustrating one approach adopted in Finland

  17. Assessment actions and communication of solid cancer development risk in scenarios RDD based on computational simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bulhosa, V.M.; Lima, Z.R. de, E-mail: valquiriambrj@gmail.com, E-mail: zelmolima@yahoo.com.br [Instituto de Engenharia Nuclear (PPGIEN/IEN/CNEN-RJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Andrade, E.R. de, E-mail: fisica.dna@gmail.com [Instituto Militar de Engenharia (IME), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2017-07-01

    The complex scenario involving the disposal of radioactive material into the environment can lead to population exposure and serious issues with its unfolding events. In this context, a methodology capable of providing useful basic information, with the least amount of scenario-specific-information, for immediate and future risk assessment is of relevance. For this work a simulation of a RDD involving cesium-137 will be considered, coupling the results of the Health Physics Code System for Evaluating Accidents Involving Radioactive Materials software (HOTSPOT 3.0.3) and the epidemiological equations of the Radiation Effects Research Foundation (RERF) to support the decision making process. The results of the simulation will be used to help quantify the number of general individuals allocated to areas of higher radiological risk and of interest to medical care by providing the scientific data to develop a more appropriate approach to risk and its communication to the affected population. (author)

  18. Assessment actions and communication of solid cancer development risk in scenarios RDD based on computational simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bulhosa, V.M.; Lima, Z.R. de; Andrade, E.R. de

    2017-01-01

    The complex scenario involving the disposal of radioactive material into the environment can lead to population exposure and serious issues with its unfolding events. In this context, a methodology capable of providing useful basic information, with the least amount of scenario-specific-information, for immediate and future risk assessment is of relevance. For this work a simulation of a RDD involving cesium-137 will be considered, coupling the results of the Health Physics Code System for Evaluating Accidents Involving Radioactive Materials software (HOTSPOT 3.0.3) and the epidemiological equations of the Radiation Effects Research Foundation (RERF) to support the decision making process. The results of the simulation will be used to help quantify the number of general individuals allocated to areas of higher radiological risk and of interest to medical care by providing the scientific data to develop a more appropriate approach to risk and its communication to the affected population. (author)

  19. Assessment of Meteorological Drought Indices in Korea Using RCP 8.5 Scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dongwoo Jang

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Diverse drought indices have been developed and used across the globe to assess and monitor droughts. Among them, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI and Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI are drought indices that have been recently developed and are being used in the world’s leading countries. This study took place in Korea’s major observatories for drought prediction until 2100, using the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 8.5 scenario. On the basis of the drought index measured by SPI, future climates were forecast to be humid, as the index would rise over time. In contrast, the RDI, which takes evapotranspiration into account, anticipated dry climates, with the drought index gradually falling over time. From the analysis of the drought index through the RCP 8.5 scenario, extreme drought intensity will be more likely to occur due to rising temperatures. To obtain the diversity of drought prediction, the evapotranspiration was deemed necessary for calculating meteorological droughts.

  20. Future scenario development within life cycle assessment of waste management systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bisinella, Valentina

    Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is an acknowledged tool for quantifying the sustainability of waste management solutions. However, the use of LCA for decision-making is hindered by the strong dependency of the LCA results on the assumptions regarding the future conditions in which the waste management...... solutions will operate. Future scenario methods from the management engineering field may provide valid approaches for formulating consistent assumptions on future conditions for the waste management system modelled with LCA. However, the standardized LCA procedure currently does not offer much guidance...... field. The quantitative modelling implications were tested within real-scale LCA models focusing on the management of residual waste in Denmark. In a wide range of scenarios, this thesis addressed the influence on the LCA model results of realistic technology and waste composition uncertainties, as well...

  1. Assessment actions and communication of solid cancer development risk in scenarios RDD based on computational simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bulhosa, Valquiria Miranda; Lima, Zelmo R. de; Andrade, Edson Ramos de

    2017-01-01

    The complex scenario involving the disposal of radioactive material into the environment can lead to population exposure and serious issues with its unfolding events. In this context, a methodology capable of providing useful basic information, with the least amount of scenario-specific-information, for immediate and future risk assessment is of relevance. For this work a simulation of a Radiological Dispersal Devices involving cesium 137 will be considered, coupling the results of the Health Physics Code System for Evaluating Accidents Involving Radioactive Materials software (HotSpot 3.0.3) and the epidemiological equations of the Radiation Effects Research Foundation (RERF) to support the decision making process. The results of the simulation will be used to help quantify the number of general individuals allocated to areas of higher radiological risk and of interest to medical care by providing the scientific data to develop a more appropriate approach to risk and its communication to the affected population. (author)

  2. Assessment actions and communication of solid cancer development risk in scenarios RDD based on computational simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bulhosa, Valquiria Miranda; Lima, Zelmo R. de, E-mail: valquiriambrj@gmail.com, E-mail: zelmolima@yahoo.com.br [Instituto de Engenharia Nuclear (IEN/CNEN-RJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Andrade, Edson Ramos de, E-mail: fisica.dna@gmail.com [Instituto Militar de Engenharia (IME), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2017-07-01

    The complex scenario involving the disposal of radioactive material into the environment can lead to population exposure and serious issues with its unfolding events. In this context, a methodology capable of providing useful basic information, with the least amount of scenario-specific-information, for immediate and future risk assessment is of relevance. For this work a simulation of a Radiological Dispersal Devices involving cesium 137 will be considered, coupling the results of the Health Physics Code System for Evaluating Accidents Involving Radioactive Materials software (HotSpot 3.0.3) and the epidemiological equations of the Radiation Effects Research Foundation (RERF) to support the decision making process. The results of the simulation will be used to help quantify the number of general individuals allocated to areas of higher radiological risk and of interest to medical care by providing the scientific data to develop a more appropriate approach to risk and its communication to the affected population. (author)

  3. The development of climatic scenarios for assessing impacts of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carter, T.; Tuomenvirta, H.; Posch, M.

    1995-01-01

    There is a growing recognition that mitigation measures for limiting future global changes in climate due to the enhanced greenhouse effect are unlikely to prevent some changes from occurring. Thus, if climate changes appear to be unavoidable, there is an increased need to evaluate their likely impacts on natural systems and human activities. Most impacts of climate change need to be examined at a regional scale, and their assessment requires up-to-date information on future regional climate changes. Unfortunately, accurate predictions of regional climate are not yet available. Instead, it is customary to construct climatic scenarios, which are plausible representations of future climate based on the best available information. This presentation outlines seven principles of climatic scenario development for impact studies, briefly describing some of the strengths and weaknesses of available methods and then illustrating one approach adopted in Finland

  4. The development of climatic scenarios for assessing impacts of climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carter, T.; Tuomenvirta, H. [Finnish Meteorological Inst., Helsinki (Finland); Posch, M. [National Inst. of Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven (Netherlands)

    1995-12-31

    There is a growing recognition that mitigation measures for limiting future global changes in climate due to the enhanced greenhouse effect are unlikely to prevent some changes from occurring. Thus, if climate changes appear to be unavoidable, there is an increased need to evaluate their likely impacts on natural systems and human activities. Most impacts of climate change need to be examined at a regional scale, and their assessment requires up-to-date information on future regional climate changes. Unfortunately, accurate predictions of regional climate are not yet available. Instead, it is customary to construct climatic scenarios, which are plausible representations of future climate based on the best available information. This presentation outlines seven principles of climatic scenario development for impact studies, briefly describing some of the strengths and weaknesses of available methods and then illustrating one approach adopted in Finland

  5. Particle Reduction Strategies - PAREST. Emissions in PAREST reference scenario 2005-2020; Strategien zur Verminderung der Feinstaubbelastung - PAREST. Emissionen im PAREST-Referenzszenario 2005-2020

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Joerss, Wolfram [Institut fuer Zukunftsstudien und Technologiebewertung gGmbH (IZT), Berlin (Germany); Kugler, Ulrike; Theloke, Jochen [Stuttgart Univ. (Germany). Inst. fuer Energiewirtschaft und Rationelle Energieanwendung (IER)

    2013-06-15

    In the research project PAREST emission scenarios to 2020 for particulate matter (PM{sub 10} und PM{sub 2,5}), and aerosol precursors SO{sub 2}, NO{sub x}, NH{sub 3} and NMVOC were prepared for Germany and Europe, mitigation measures evaluated and the results used to model the PM pollution load for Germany. In this sub-report of PAREST Germany's aggregate emissions totals of the considered pollutants are presented in the reference scenario. [German] Im Forschungsvorhaben PAREST wurden Emissionsszenarien bis 2020 fuer Feinstaub (PM{sub 10} und PM{sub 2,5}) und die Aerosol-Vorlaeufersubstanzen SO{sub 2}, NO{sub x}, NH{sub 3} und NMVOC fuer Deutschland und Europa erstellt, Minderungsmassnahmen evaluiert und daraus die PM-Immissionsbelastung fuer Deutschland modelliert. In diesem Teilbericht zu PAREST werden die deutschlandweit aggregierten Emissionssummen der betrachteten Schadstoffe im Referenzszenario vorgestellt.

  6. New Approaches to Transport Project Assessment: Reference Scenario Forecasting and Quantitative Risk Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang

    2010-01-01

    however has proved that the point estimates derived from such analyses are embedded with a large degree of uncertainty. Thus, a new scheme was proposed in terms of applying quantitative risk analysis (QRA) and Monte Carlo simulation in order to represent the uncertainties within the cost-benefit analysis....... Additionally, the handling of uncertainties is supplemented by making use of the principle of Optimism Bias, which depicts the historical tendency of overestimating transport related benefits (user demands i.e. travel time savings) and underestimating investment costs....

  7. AN ENVIRON-ECONOMICAL MATHEMATICAL MODELING OF WATER POLLUTION IMPACT ASSESSMENT IN REFERENCE TO INDIAN SCENARIO

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hemant PATHAK

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the application of the mathematical modeling to such a specific area as environ-economical interaction in prospect of big countries like India. A model of mutual interaction of dirty drinking water resulting water borne diseases, badly affected economy is proposed. For the description of some of these models illustrates drinking water resources, incapable municipal water treatment consequently expansion of diseases, World Bank loan, affected biggest labour forces (mankind and ultimate results in the form of decrease in GDP. These mathematical models may be used in the solving of similar type problems exist in south and eastern Asian economies.

  8. Climate in France during the 21. century - Regionalized scenarios - Reference indices for the metropolitan region - Evolution at sea level

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peings, Yannick; Planton, Serge; Deque, Michel; Jamous, Marc; Le Treut, Herve; Gallee, Hubert; Li, Laurent; Jouzel, J.

    2011-01-01

    After some comments on climate modelling (models, scenarios, uncertainties, regional predictions), the first part reports the study of several temperature indices (minimum, average and maximum daily temperature, number of days with abnormally high or low temperature, number of days of heat wave, number of days with negative temperatures, and so on.), precipitation indices (daily and extreme precipitations, dry periods, snow falls). It also discusses soil humidity index, strong wind index, river flow rate, and sea level. The second part reports simulation results for indices in metropolitan France according to the French Aladin-Climat, LMDZ and MAR models. The third volume reports evolutions and predictions of average sea level at the planet scale and along the French coasts, and discusses impacts related to sea level change (coast erosion, submersion, salt intrusion)

  9. SCENARIO PLANNING AS LEARNING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio Lourenço Junior

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Scenario Planning has been increasingly used, from its introduction to the decision process as effective tools to test decisions, and improve performance in a dynamic environment (Chermack, 2005. The purpose of this article is to demonstrate the potential of an experimental Scenario Planning Model to mobilize, encourage and add more content to the organization’s decision making process – mainly with respect to Strategic Plans of two governmental institutions, a pharmaceutical company and a technology education foundation.  This study describes the application stages of a hybrid scenario-planning model – herein referred to as Planning as Learning – via action-research, showing the scenarios resulting from the experiment and describes the main results of an assessment of such practice. In order to do that, two well-established Scenario Planning models (Prospective school and Shell’s model were analyzed. They were used as a reference for the proposition and application of an experimental model in the two study objects. A questionnaire was used to assess the technique impact. It was possible to obtain high levels of reliability. In-depth interviews were also conducted with the participants. At the end, the results confirmed the model efficiency as a basis for decision making in the competitive environment in which the two institutions are inserted, also to encourage the learning process as a group, as observed throughout the work.

  10. Positive animal welfare states and reference standards for welfare assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mellor, D J

    2015-01-01

    Developments in affective neuroscience and behavioural science during the last 10-15 years have together made it increasingly apparent that sentient animals are potentially much more sensitive to their environmental and social circumstances than was previously thought to be the case. It therefore seems likely that both the range and magnitude of welfare trade-offs that occur when animals are managed for human purposes have been underestimated even when minimalistic but arguably well-intentioned attempts have been made to maintain high levels of welfare. In light of these neuroscience-supported behaviour-based insights, the present review considers the extent to which the use of currently available reference standards might draw attention to these previously neglected areas of concern. It is concluded that the natural living orientation cannot provide an all-embracing or definitive welfare benchmark because of its primary focus on behavioural freedom. However assessments of this type, supported by neuroscience insights into behavioural motivation, may now carry greater weight when used to identify management practices that should be avoided, discontinued or substantially modified. Using currently accepted baseline standards as welfare reference points may result in small changes being accorded greater significance than would be the case if they were compared with higher standards, and this could slow the progress towards better levels of welfare. On the other hand, using "what animals want" as a reference standard has the appeal of focusing on the specific resources or conditions the animals would choose themselves and can potentially improve their welfare more quickly than the approach of making small increments above baseline standards. It is concluded that the cautious use of these approaches in different combinations could lead to recommendations that would more effectively promote positive welfare states in hitherto neglected areas of concern.

  11. Modelling regional land change scenarios to assess land abandonment and reforestation dynamics in the Pyrenees (France)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vacquie, Laure; Houet, Thomas; Sohl, Terry L.; Reker, Ryan R.; Sayler, Kristi L.

    2015-01-01

    Over the last decades and centuries, European mountain landscapes have experienced substantial transformations. Natural and anthropogenic LULC changes (land use and land cover changes), especially agro-pastoral activities, have directly influenced the spatial organization and composition of European mountain landscapes. For the past sixty years, natural reforestation has been occurring due to a decline in both agricultural production activities and rural population. Stakeholders, to better anticipate future changes, need spatially and temporally explicit models to identify areas at risk of land change and possible abandonment. This paper presents an integrated approach combining forecasting scenarios and a LULC changes simulation model to assess where LULC changes may occur in the Pyrenees Mountains, based on historical LULC trends and a range of future socio-economic drivers. The proposed methodology considers local specificities of the Pyrenean valleys, sub-regional climate and topographical properties, and regional economic policies. Results indicate that some regions are projected to face strong abandonment, regardless of the scenario conditions. Overall, high rates of change are associated with administrative regions where land productivity is highly dependent on socio-economic drivers and climatic and environmental conditions limit intensive (agricultural and/or pastoral) production and profitability. The combination of the results for the four scenarios allows assessments of where encroachment (e.g. colonization by shrublands) and reforestation are the most probable. This assessment intends to provide insight into the potential future development of the Pyrenees to help identify areas that are the most sensitive to change and to guide decision makers to help their management decisions.

  12. Life cycle assessment and residue leaching: The importance of parameter, scenario and leaching data selection

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Allegrini, E., E-mail: elia@env.dtu.dk [Technical University of Denmark, Department of Environmental Engineering, Building 115, 2800 Lyngby (Denmark); Butera, S. [Technical University of Denmark, Department of Environmental Engineering, Building 115, 2800 Lyngby (Denmark); Kosson, D.S. [Vanderbilt University, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Box 1831 Station B, Nashville, TN 37235 (United States); Van Zomeren, A. [Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands (ECN), Department of Environmental Risk Assessment, P.O. Box 1, 1755 ZG Petten (Netherlands); Van der Sloot, H.A. [Hans van der Sloot Consultancy, Dorpsstraat 216, 1721 BV Langedijk (Netherlands); Astrup, T.F. [Technical University of Denmark, Department of Environmental Engineering, Building 115, 2800 Lyngby (Denmark)

    2015-04-15

    Highlights: • Relevance of metal leaching in waste management system LCAs was assessed. • Toxic impacts from leaching could not be disregarded. • Uncertainty of toxicity, due to background activities, determines LCA outcomes. • Parameters such as pH and L/S affect LCA results. • Data modelling consistency and coverage within an LCA are crucial. - Abstract: Residues from industrial processes and waste management systems (WMSs) have been increasingly reutilised, leading to landfilling rate reductions and the optimisation of mineral resource utilisation in society. Life cycle assessment (LCA) is a holistic methodology allowing for the analysis of systems and products and can be applied to waste management systems to identify environmental benefits and critical aspects thereof. From an LCA perspective, residue utilisation provides benefits such as avoiding the production and depletion of primary materials, but it can lead to environmental burdens, due to the potential leaching of toxic substances. In waste LCA studies where residue utilisation is included, leaching has generally been neglected. In this study, municipal solid waste incineration bottom ash (MSWI BA) was used as a case study into three LCA scenarios having different system boundaries. The importance of data quality and parameter selection in the overall LCA results was evaluated, and an innovative method to assess metal transport into the environment was applied, in order to determine emissions to the soil and water compartments for use in an LCA. It was found that toxic impacts as a result of leaching were dominant in systems including only MSWI BA utilisation, while leaching appeared negligible in larger scenarios including the entire waste system. However, leaching could not be disregarded a priori, due to large uncertainties characterising other activities in the scenario (e.g. electricity production). Based on the analysis of relevant parameters relative to leaching, and on general results

  13. Reimbursement of pharmaceuticals: reference pricing versus health technology assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drummond, Michael; Jönsson, Bengt; Rutten, Frans; Stargardt, Tom

    2011-06-01

    Reference pricing and health technology assessment are policies commonly applied in order to obtain more value for money from pharmaceuticals. This study focussed on decisions about the initial price and reimbursement status of innovative drugs and discussed the consequences for market access and cost. Four countries were studied: Germany, The Netherlands, Sweden and the United Kingdom. These countries have operated one, or both, of the two policies at certain points in time, sometimes in parallel. Drugs in four groups were considered: cholesterol-lowering agents, insulin analogues, biologic drugs for rheumatoid arthritis and "atypical" drugs for schizophrenia. Compared with HTA, reference pricing is a relatively blunt instrument for obtaining value for money from pharmaceuticals. Thus, its role in making reimbursement decisions should be limited to drugs which are therapeutically equivalent. HTA is a superior strategy for obtaining value for money because it addresses not only price but also the appropriate indications for the use of the drug and the relation between additional value and additional costs. However, given the relatively higher costs of conducting HTAs, the most efficient approach might be a combination of both policies.

  14. Reference material systems: a sourcebook for material assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bhagat, N. (ed.)

    1976-12-01

    A reference set of data related to material systems and a framework for carrying out the material technologies assessment are presented. While the bulk of renewables have been considered in this report, the nonrenewable materials dealt with here include structural materials only, such as steel, aluminum, cement and concrete, and bricks. The complete data set is supposed to include material flows, energy requirements, capital and labor inputs, and environmental effects for each process that a resource must go through to become a useful material for an end use. Although effort has been made to obtain as much information as possible, considerable gaps in data, apparent throughout this report, could not be avoided. A new material technology can be evaluated by substituting that technology for appropriate elements of the reference materials system and calculating the net change in material resource, energy, capital and labor requirements, and environmental impacts. This combination of information thus serves as a means of evaluating the potential benefits to be gained by research in various material technologies.

  15. Radioactive waste assessment using 'moderate growth in nuclear electricity generation' scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Richardson, J.A.; Goodill, D.R.; Tymons, B.J.

    1985-05-01

    This report describes an assessment of radioactive waste management arisings from a defined nuclear power generation scenario -Scheme 3. Scheme 3 assumes a moderate growth in nuclear generation scenario with raw waste arisings from 3 main groups: (i) existing and committed commercial reactors; (ii) fuel reprocessing plants; (iii) research, industry and medicine. No decommissioning wastes are considered except for arisings from the final fuel cores from decommissioned reactors. The study uses the SIMULATION2 code which models waste material flows through the system. With a knowledge of the accumulations and average production rates of the raw wastes and their isotopic compositions (or total activities), the rates at which conditioned wastes become available for transportation and disposal are calculated, with specific activity levels. The data bases for the inventory calculations and the assumptions concerning future operation of nuclear facilities were those current in 1983. Both the inventory data and plans for the future of existing nuclear installations have been updated since these calculations were completed. Therefore the results from this assessment do not represent the most up-to-date information available. The report does, however, illustrate the methodology of assessment, and indicates the type of information that can be generated. (author)

  16. Scenario-neutral Food Security Risk Assessment: A livestock Heat Stress Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Broman, D.; Rajagopalan, B.; Hopson, T. M.

    2015-12-01

    Food security risk assessments can provide decision-makers with actionable information to identify critical system limitations, and alternatives to mitigate the impacts of future conditions. The majority of current risk assessments have been scenario-led and results are limited by the scenarios - selected future states of the world's climate system and socioeconomic factors. A generic scenario-neutral framework for food security risk assessments is presented here that uses plausible states of the world without initially assigning likelihoods. Measures of system vulnerabilities are identified and system risk is assessed for these states. This framework has benefited greatly by research in the water and natural resource fields to adapt their planning to provide better risk assessments. To illustrate the utility of this framework we develop a case study using livestock heat stress risk within the pastoral system of West Africa. Heat stress can have a major impact not only on livestock owners, but on the greater food production system, decreasing livestock growth, milk production, and reproduction, and in severe cases, death. A heat stress index calculated from daily weather is used as a vulnerability measure and is computed from historic daily weather data at several locations in the study region. To generate plausible states, a stochastic weather generator is developed to generate synthetic weather sequences at each location, consistent with the seasonal climate. A spatial model of monthly and seasonal heat stress provide projections of current and future livestock heat stress measures across the study region, and can incorporate in seasonal climate and other external covariates. These models, when linked with empirical thresholds of heat stress risk for specific breeds offer decision-makers with actionable information for use in near-term warning systems as well as for future planning. Future assessment can indicate under which states livestock are at greatest risk

  17. The role of the uncertainty in assessing future scenarios of water shortage in alluvial aquifers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romano, Emanuele; Camici, Stefania; Brocca, Luca; Moramarco, Tommaso; Guyennon, Nicolas; Preziosi, Elisabetta

    2015-04-01

    There are many evidences that the combined effects of variations in precipitation and temperature due to climate change can result in a significant change of the recharge to groundwater at different time scales. A possible reduction of effective infiltration can result in a significant decrease, temporary or permanent, of the availability of the resource and, consequently, the sustainable pumping rate should be reassessed. In addition to this, one should also consider the so called indirect impacts of climate change, resulting from human intervention (e.g. augmentation of abstractions) which are feared to be even more important than the direct ones in the medium term: thus, a possible increase of episodes of shortage (i.e. the inability of the groundwater system to completely supply the water demand) can result both from change in the climate forcing and change in the demand. In order to assess future scenarios of water shortage a modelling chain is often used. It includes: 1) the use of General Circulation Models to estimate changes in temperature and precipitation; 2) downscaling procedures to match modeling scenarios to the observed meteorological time series; 3) soil-atmosphere modelling to estimate the time variation of the recharge to the aquifer; 4) groundwater flow models to simulate the water budget and piezometric head evolution; 5) future scenarios of groundwater quantitative status that include scenarios of demand variation. It is well known that each of these processing steps is affected by an intrinsic uncertainty that propagates through the whole chain leading to a final uncertainty on the piezometric head scenarios. The estimate of such an uncertainty is a key point for a correct management of groundwater resources, in case of water shortage due to prolonged droughts as well as for planning purposes. This study analyzes the uncertainty of the processing chain from GCM scenarios to its impact on an alluvial aquifer in terms of exploitation

  18. Life cycle assessment and residue leaching: the importance of parameter, scenario and leaching data selection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allegrini, E; Butera, S; Kosson, D S; Van Zomeren, A; Van der Sloot, H A; Astrup, T F

    2015-04-01

    Residues from industrial processes and waste management systems (WMSs) have been increasingly reutilised, leading to landfilling rate reductions and the optimisation of mineral resource utilisation in society. Life cycle assessment (LCA) is a holistic methodology allowing for the analysis of systems and products and can be applied to waste management systems to identify environmental benefits and critical aspects thereof. From an LCA perspective, residue utilisation provides benefits such as avoiding the production and depletion of primary materials, but it can lead to environmental burdens, due to the potential leaching of toxic substances. In waste LCA studies where residue utilisation is included, leaching has generally been neglected. In this study, municipal solid waste incineration bottom ash (MSWI BA) was used as a case study into three LCA scenarios having different system boundaries. The importance of data quality and parameter selection in the overall LCA results was evaluated, and an innovative method to assess metal transport into the environment was applied, in order to determine emissions to the soil and water compartments for use in an LCA. It was found that toxic impacts as a result of leaching were dominant in systems including only MSWI BA utilisation, while leaching appeared negligible in larger scenarios including the entire waste system. However, leaching could not be disregarded a priori, due to large uncertainties characterising other activities in the scenario (e.g. electricity production). Based on the analysis of relevant parameters relative to leaching, and on general results of the study, recommendations are provided regarding the use of leaching data in LCA studies. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Life cycle assessment of municipal solid waste management scenarios on the small island of Mauritius.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajcoomar, Avinash; Ramjeawon, Toolseeram

    2017-03-01

    The aim of this study was to use the life cycle assessment tool to assess, from an environmental point of view, the different possible municipal solid waste (MSW) management scenarios for the island of Mauritius. The scenarios include landfilling with energy recovery (S1), incineration with energy recovery (S2), composting, incineration and landfilling (S3) and finally composting, recycling, incineration and landfilling (S4). The MSW generated in 2010 was selected as the functional unit. Foreground data were collected through surveys and literature. Background data were obtained from ecoinvent data in SimaPro 8 libraries. The scenarios were compared both through the CML-IA baseline-midpoint method and the ReCiPe end-point method. From the midpoint method, the results obtained indicates that landfilling (S1) has the greatest impact in all the analyzed impact categories except ozone layer depletion and human toxicity, while incineration (S2) has the least impact on almost all the analyzed damage categories except in global warming potential and human toxicity. The collection and transportation of waste has a significant impact on the environment. From the end-point method, S4 reduces the damage impact categories on Human Health, Ecosystems and Resources due to the recycling process. S3 is not favorable due to the impact caused by the composting process. However, it is also very important to emphasize that for incineration, the best available technology with energy recovery shall be considered. It is recommended that S2 and S4 are considered for strategic planning.

  20. Techno-economic viability assessments of greener propulsion technology under potential environmental regulatory policy scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nalianda, D.K.; Kyprianidis, K.G.; Sethi, V.; Singh, R.

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • An advanced method is presented for techno-economic assessment under potential environmental regulatory policy scenarios. • The viability of the contra-rotating open rotor concept is investigated under various environmental policies. • CO_2 taxation is needed to drive the aerospace industry towards greener solutions. - Abstract: Sustainability of the aviation industry, as any other industry, depends on the elasticity of demand for the product and profitability through minimising operating costs. Of paramount importance is assessing and understanding the interdependency and effects of environmentally optimised solutions and emission mitigation policies. This paper describes the development and application of assessment methodologies to better understand the effects of environmental taxation/energy policies aimed at environmental pollution reduction and the future potential economic impact they may have on the adaptation of “greener” novel technologies. These studies are undertaken using a Techno-economic Environmental Risk Assessment approach. The methodology demonstrated allows the assessment of the economic viability of new technologies compared to conventional technologies, for various CO_2 emission taxation and fuel price scenarios. It considers relative increases in acquisition price and maintenance costs. A study undertaken as a ‘proof of concept’ compares a Counter Rotating Open Rotor aircraft with a conventional aircraft for short range operations. It indicates that at current fuel price and with no carbon taxation, a highly fuel efficient technology, such as the one considered, could be rendered economically unviable. The work goes on to demonstrate that in comparison to the conventional aircraft, any economic benefits that may be accrued from improvement in fuel consumption through such a technology, may well be negated through increases in acquisition price and maintenance costs. The work further demonstrates that if policy

  1. Using a Numerical Model to Assess the Geomorphic Impacts of Forest Management Scenarios on Streams

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davidson, S. L.; Eaton, B. C.

    2014-12-01

    In-stream large wood governs the morphology of many small to intermediate streams, while riparian vegetation influences bank strength and channel pattern. Forest management practices such as harvesting and fire suppression therefore dramatically influence channel processes and associated aquatic habitat. The primary objective of this research is to compare the impacts of three common forest scenarios - natural fire disturbance, forest harvesting with a riparian buffer, and fire suppression - on the volume of in-channel wood and the complexity of aquatic habitat in channels at a range of scales. Each scenario is explored through Monte Carlo simulations run over a period of 1000 years using a numerical reach scale channel simulator (RSCS), with variations in tree toppling rate and forest density used to represent each forest management trajectory. The habitat complexity associated with each scenario is assessed based on the area of the bed occupied by pools and spawning sized sediment, the availability of wood cover, and the probability of avulsion. Within the fire scenario, we also use the model to separately investigate the effects of root decay and recovery on equilibrium channel geometry by varying the rooting depth and associated bank strength through time. The results show that wood loading and habitat complexity are influenced by the timing and magnitude of wood recruitment, as well as channel scale. The forest harvesting scenario produces the lowest wood loads and habitat complexity so long as the buffer width is less than the average mature tree height. The natural fire cycle produces the greatest wood loading and habitat complexity, but also the greatest variability because these streams experience significant periods without wood recruitment as forests regenerate. In reaches that experience recurrent fires, width increases in the post-fire period as roots decay, at times producing a change in channel pattern when a threshold width to depth ratio is

  2. Assessment of climate change scenarios for Saudi Arabia using data from global climate models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Husain, T.; Chowdhury, S.

    2009-01-01

    This study assesses available scientific information and data to predict changes in the climatic parameters in Saudi Arabia for understanding the impacts for mitigation and/or adaptation. Meteorological data from 26 synoptic stations were analyzed in this study. Various climatic change scenarios were reviewed and A 2 and B 2 climatic scenario families were selected. In order to assess long-term global impact, global climatic models were used to simulate changes in temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, solar radiation, and wind circulation. Using global climate model (GCM), monthly time series data was retrieved for Longitude 15 o N to 35 o N and 32.5 o E to 60 o E covering the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia from 1970 to 2100 for all grids. Taking averages of 1970 to 2003 as baseline, change in temperature, relative humidity and precipitation were estimated for the base period. A comparative evaluation was performed for predictive capabilities of these models for temperature, precipitation and relative humidity. Available meteorological data from 1970 to 2003 was used to determine trends. This paper discusses the inconsistency in these parameters for decision-making and recommends future studies by linking global climate models with a suitable regional climate modeling tool. (author)

  3. Scenario exploration approach for performance assessment of geological disposal system (III)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oyamada, Kiyoshi; Ikeda, Takao

    1999-02-01

    In order to underpin and defend the definition of calculation cases and simplified PA models, we discuss a complementary approach which reverses the standard procedure of scenario development and case definition described above. We design a set of extremely flexible mathematical tools called Shadow Models' for the particular purpose of 'scanning' the whole parameter/model space which has not yet been rejected by the experts rather than scrutinizing it. The SSTM was used extensively to generate an ensemble of stochastic realizations of the possible nuclide transport behaviour within the EBS. The principal component analysis on the ensemble and the analysis of the contribution of input parameter variations to the output variations reconstructed the existing knowledge concerning the sensitivity structure for the reference cases in a more formal and quantitative way. In addition, an analysis on the subset of realizations corresponding to high peak release rate revealed a critical combination and sequence of events that could potentially lead to a significantly higher release rate than that of the reference cases. In the current financial year, the objective of the study is: (1) To extend the methodology further and develop a shadow model for nuclide transport through near-field host rock which is represented as a time-dependent channel network with dual porosity; (2) To apply the near-field shadow transport model in the stochastic mode and explore the sensitivity structure; (3) To run the near-field shadow transport model in the deterministic mode to investigate effects of some physical events. (author)

  4. AN ASSESSMENT OF CITIZEN CONTRIBUTED GROUND REFERENCE DATA FOR LAND COVER MAP ACCURACY ASSESSMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. M. Foody

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available It is now widely accepted that an accuracy assessment should be part of a thematic mapping programme. Authoritative good or best practices for accuracy assessment have been defined but are often impractical to implement. Key reasons for this situation are linked to the ground reference data used in the accuracy assessment. Typically, it is a challenge to acquire a large sample of high quality reference cases in accordance to desired sampling designs specified as conforming to good practice and the data collected are normally to some degree imperfect limiting their value to an accuracy assessment which implicitly assumes the use of a gold standard reference. Citizen sensors have great potential to aid aspects of accuracy assessment. In particular, they may be able to act as a source of ground reference data that may, for example, reduce sample size problems but concerns with data quality remain. The relative strengths and limitations of citizen contributed data for accuracy assessment are reviewed in the context of the authoritative good practices defined for studies of land cover by remote sensing. The article will highlight some of the ways that citizen contributed data have been used in accuracy assessment as well as some of the problems that require further attention, and indicate some of the potential ways forward in the future.

  5. Generation of Referring Expressions: Assessing the Incremental Algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Deemter, Kees; Gatt, Albert; van der Sluis, Ielka; Power, Richard

    2012-01-01

    A substantial amount of recent work in natural language generation has focused on the generation of "one-shot" referring expressions whose only aim is to identify a target referent. Dale and Reiter's Incremental Algorithm (IA) is often thought to be the best algorithm for maximizing the similarity to referring expressions produced by people. We…

  6. Loose and Tight GNSS/INS Integrations: Comparison of Performance Assessed in Real Urban Scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Falco, Gianluca; Pini, Marco; Marucco, Gianluca

    2017-01-29

    Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSSs) remain the principal mean of positioning in many applications and systems, but in several types of environment, the performance of standalone receivers is degraded. Although many works show the benefits of the integration between GNSS and Inertial Navigation Systems (INSs), tightly-coupled architectures are mainly implemented in professional devices and are based on high-grade Inertial Measurement Units (IMUs). This paper investigates the performance improvements enabled by the tight integration, using low-cost sensors and a mass-market GNSS receiver. Performance is assessed through a series of tests carried out in real urban scenarios and is compared against commercial modules, operating in standalone mode or featuring loosely-coupled integrations. The paper describes the developed tight-integration algorithms with a terse mathematical model and assesses their efficacy from a practical perspective.

  7. Conceptualizing sustainable development. An assessment methodology connecting values, knowledge, worldviews and scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Vries, Bert J.M.; Petersen, Arthur C.

    2009-01-01

    Sustainability science poses severe challenges to classical disciplinary science. To bring the perspectives of diverse disciplines together in a meaningful way, we describe a novel methodology for sustainability assessment of a particular social-ecological system, or country. Starting point is that a sustainability assessment should investigate the ability to continue and develop a desirable way of living vis-a-vis later generations and life elsewhere on the planet. Evidently, people hold different values and beliefs about the way societies sustain quality of life for their members. The first step, therefore, is to analyze people's value orientations and the way in which they interpret sustainability problems i.e. their beliefs. The next step is to translate the resulting worldviews into model-based narratives, i.e. scenarios. The qualitative and quantitative outcomes are then investigated in terms of associated risks and opportunities and robustness of policy options. The Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL) has followed this methodology, using extensive surveys among the Dutch population. In its First Sustainability Outlook (2004), the resulting archetypical worldviews became the basis for four different scenarios for policy analysis, with emphases on the domains of transport, energy and food. The goal of the agency's Sustainability Outlooks is to show that choices are inevitable in policy making for sustainable development, to indicate which positive and negative impacts one can expect of these choices (trade-offs), and to identify options that may be robust under several worldviews. The conceptualization proposed here is both clear and applicable in practical sustainability assessments for policy making. (author)

  8. Diagnostic health risk assessment of electronic waste on the general population in developing countries' scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frazzoli, Chiara; Orisakwe, Orish Ebere; Dragone, Roberto; Mantovani, Alberto

    2010-01-01

    E-waste is the generic name for technological waste. Even though aspects related to e-waste environmental pollution and human exposure are known, scientific assessments are missing so far on the actual risks for health sustainability of the general population exposed to e-waste scenarios, such as illicit dumping, crude recycling and improper treatment and disposal. In fact, further to occupational and direct local exposure, e-waste scenarios may impact on the environment-to-food chain, thus eliciting a widespread and repeated exposure of the general population to mixtures of toxicants, mainly toxic chemical elements, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and persistent organic pollutants. In the absence of any clear policy on e-waste flow management, the situation in the e-waste receiver countries may become quite scary; accordingly, here we address a diagnostic risk assessment of health issues potentially elicited by e-waste related mixtures of toxicants. Scientific evidence available so far (mainly from China) is discussed with special attention to the concept of health sustainability, i.e. the poor health burden heritage perpetuated through the mother-to-child dyad. Endocrine disruption and neurotoxicity are specifically considered as examples of main health burden issues relevant to perpetuation through life cycle and across generations; toxicological information are considered along with available data on environmental and food contamination and human internal exposure. The risk from exposure to e-waste related mixtures of toxicants of vulnerable subpopulation like breast-fed infants is given special attention. The diagnostic risk assessment demonstrates how e-waste exposure poses an actual public health emergency, as it may entrain significant health risks also for generations to come. Exposure scenarios as well as specific chemicals of major concern may vary in different contexts; for instance, only limited information is available on e-waste related exposures in

  9. Assessment of hi-resolution multi-ensemble statistical downscaling regional climate scenarios over Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dairaku, K.

    2017-12-01

    The Asia-Pacific regions are increasingly threatened by large scale natural disasters. Growing concerns that loss and damages of natural disasters are projected to further exacerbate by climate change and socio-economic change. Climate information and services for risk assessments are of great concern. Fundamental regional climate information is indispensable for understanding changing climate and making decisions on when and how to act. To meet with the needs of stakeholders such as National/local governments, spatio-temporal comprehensive and consistent information is necessary and useful for decision making. Multi-model ensemble regional climate scenarios with 1km horizontal grid-spacing over Japan are developed by using CMIP5 37 GCMs (RCP8.5) and a statistical downscaling (Bias Corrected Spatial Disaggregation (BCSD)) to investigate uncertainty of projected change associated with structural differences of the GCMs for the periods of historical climate (1950-2005) and near future climate (2026-2050). Statistical downscaling regional climate scenarios show good performance for annual and seasonal averages for precipitation and temperature. The regional climate scenarios show systematic underestimate of extreme events such as hot days of over 35 Celsius and annual maximum daily precipitation because of the interpolation processes in the BCSD method. Each model projected different responses in near future climate because of structural differences. The most of CMIP5 37 models show qualitatively consistent increase of average and extreme temperature and precipitation. The added values of statistical/dynamical downscaling methods are also investigated for locally forced nonlinear phenomena, extreme events.

  10. Environmental assessment: Reference repository location, Hanford site, Washington

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    none,

    1986-05-01

    In February 1983, the US Department of Energy (DOE) identified a reference repository location at the Hanford Site in Washington as one of the nine potentially acceptable sites for a mined geologic repository for spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste. The site is in the Columbia Plateau, which is one of five distinct geohydrologic settings considered for the first repository. To determine their suitability, the Hanford Site and the eight other potentially acceptable sites have been evaluated in accordance with the DOE's General Guidelines for the Recommendation of Sites for the Nuclear Waste Repositories. These evaluations were reported in draft environmental assessments (EAs), which were issued for public review and comment. After considering the comments received on the draft EAs, the DOE prepared the final EAs. On the basis of the evaluations reported in this EA, the DOE has found that the Hanford site is not disqualified under the guidelines. The DOE has also found that it is suitable for site characterization because the evidence does not support a conclusion that the site will not be able to meet each of the qualifying conditions specified in the guidelines. On the basis of these findings, the DOE is nominating the Hanford site as one of five sites suitable for characterization.

  11. Environmental assessment: Reference repository location, Hanford site, Washington

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    none,

    1986-05-01

    In February 1983, the US Department of Energy (DOE) identified a reference repository location at the Hanford Site in Washington as one of the nine potentially acceptable sites for a mined geologic repository for spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste. The site is in the Columbia Plateau, which is one of five distinct geohydrologic settings considered for the first repository. To determine their suitability, the Hanford site and the eight other potentially acceptable sites have been evaluated in accordance with the DOE's General Guidelines for the Recommendation of Sites for the Nuclear Waste Repositories. These evaluations were reported in draft environmental assessments (EAs), which were issued for public review and comment. After considering the comments received on the draft EAs, the DOE prepared the final EAs. On the basis of the evaluations reported in this EA, the DOE has found that the Hanford site is not disqualified under the guidelines. The DOE has also found that is is suitable for site characterization because the evidence does not support a conclusion that the site will not be able to meet each of the qualifying conditions specified in the guidelines. On the basis of these findings, the DOE is nominating the Hanford site as one of five sites available for characterization.

  12. Environmental assessment: Reference repository location, Hanford site, Washington

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1986-05-01

    In February 1983, the US Department of Energy (DOE) identified a reference repository location at the Hanford Site in Washington as one of the nine potentially acceptable sites for a mined geologic repository for spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste. The site is in the Columbia Plateau, which is one of five distinct geohydrologic settings considered for the first repository. To determine their suitability, the Hanford Site and the eight other potentially acceptable sites have been evaluated in accordance with the DOE's General Guidelines for the Recommendation of Sites for the Nuclear Waste Repositories. These evaluations were reported in draft environmental assessments (EAs), which were issued for public review and comment. After considering the comments received on the draft EAs, the DOE prepared the final EAs. On the basis of the evaluations reported in this EA, the DOE has found that the Hanford site is not disqualified under the guidelines. The DOE has also found that it is suitable for site characterization because the evidence does not support a conclusion that the site will not be able to meet each of the qualifying conditions specified in the guidelines. On the basis of these findings, the DOE is nominating the Hanford site as one of five sites suitable for characterization

  13. Environmental assessment: Reference repository location, Hanford site, Washington

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1986-05-01

    In February 1983, the US Department of Energy (DOE) identified a reference repository location at the Hanford Site in Washington as one of the nine potentially acceptable sites for a mined geologic repository for spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste. The site is in the Columbia Plateau, which is one of five distinct geohydrologic settings considered for the first repository. To determine their suitability, the Hanford site and the eight other potentially acceptable sites have been evaluated in accordance with the DOE's General Guidelines for the Recommendation of Sites for the Nuclear Waste Repositories. These evaluations were reported in draft environmental assessments (EAs), which were issued for public review and comment. After considering the comments received on the draft EAs, the DOE prepared the final EAs. On the basis of the evaluations reported in this EA, the DOE has found that the Hanford site is not disqualified under the guidelines. The DOE has also found that is is suitable for site characterization because the evidence does not support a conclusion that the site will not be able to meet each of the qualifying conditions specified in the guidelines. On the basis of these findings, the DOE is nominating the Hanford site as one of five sites available for characterization

  14. Assessing the Robustness of Green Infrastructure under Stochastic Design Storms and Climate Change Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chui, T. F. M.; Yang, Y.

    2017-12-01

    Green infrastructures (GI) have been widely used to mitigate flood risk, improve surface water quality, and to restore predevelopment hydrologic regimes. Commonly-used GI include, bioretention system, porous pavement and green roof, etc. They are normally sized to fulfil different design criteria (e.g. providing certain storage depths, limiting peak surface flow rates) that are formulated for current climate conditions. While GI commonly have long lifespan, the sensitivity of their performance to climate change is however unclear. This study first proposes a method to formulate suitable design criteria to meet different management interests (e.g. different levels of first flush reduction and peak flow reduction). Then typical designs of GI are proposed. In addition, a high resolution stochastic design storm generator using copulas and random cascade model is developed, which is calibrated using recorded rainfall time series. Then, few climate change scenarios are generated by varying the duration and depth of design storms, and changing the parameters of the calibrated storm generator. Finally, the performance of GI with typical designs under the random synthesized design storms are then assessed using numerical modeling. The robustness of the designs is obtained by the comparing their performance in the future scenarios to the current one. This study overall examines the robustness of the current GI design criteria under uncertain future climate conditions, demonstrating whether current GI design criteria should be modified to account for climate change.

  15. Development of sea level rise scenarios for climate change assessments of the Mekong Delta, Vietnam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doyle, Thomas W.; Day, Richard H.; Michot, Thomas C.

    2010-01-01

    Rising sea level poses critical ecological and economical consequences for the low-lying megadeltas of the world where dependent populations and agriculture are at risk. The Mekong Delta of Vietnam is one of many deltas that are especially vulnerable because much of the land surface is below mean sea level and because there is a lack of coastal barrier protection. Food security related to rice and shrimp farming in the Mekong Delta is currently under threat from saltwater intrusion, relative sea level rise, and storm surge potential. Understanding the degree of potential change in sea level under climate change is needed to undertake regional assessments of potential impacts and to formulate adaptation strategies. This report provides constructed time series of potential sea level rise scenarios for the Mekong Delta region by incorporating (1) aspects of observed intra- and inter-annual sea level variability from tide records and (2) projected estimates for different rates of regional subsidence and accelerated eustacy through the year 2100 corresponding with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate models and emission scenarios.

  16. Using Optimal Land-Use Scenarios to Assess Trade-Offs between Conservation, Development, and Social Values.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adams, Vanessa M; Pressey, Robert L; Álvarez-Romero, Jorge G

    2016-01-01

    Development of land resources can contribute to increased economic productivity but can also negatively affect the extent and condition of native vegetation, jeopardize the persistence of native species, reduce water quality, and erode ecosystem services. Spatial planning must therefore balance outcomes for conservation, development, and social goals. One approach to evaluating these trade-offs is scenario planning. In this paper we demonstrate methods for incorporating stakeholder preferences into scenario planning through both defining scenario objectives and evaluating the scenarios that emerge. In this way, we aim to develop spatial plans capable of informing actual land-use decisions. We used a novel approach to scenario planning that couples optimal land-use design and social evaluation of environmental outcomes. Four land-use scenarios combined differences in total clearing levels (10% and 20%) in our study region, the Daly Catchment Australia, with the presence or absence of spatial precincts to concentrate irrigated agriculture. We used the systematic conservation planning tool Marxan with Zones to optimally plan for multiple land-uses that met objectives for both conservation and development. We assessed the performance of the scenarios in terms of the number of objectives met and the degree to which existing land-use policies were compromised (e.g., whether clearing limits in existing guidelines were exceeded or not). We also assessed the land-use scenarios using expected stakeholder satisfaction with changes in the catchment to explore how the scenarios performed against social preferences. There were a small fraction of conservation objectives with high conservation targets (100%) that could not be met due to current land uses; all other conservation and development objectives were met in all scenarios. Most scenarios adhered to the existing clearing guidelines with only marginal exceedances of limits, indicating that the scenario objectives were

  17. Using Optimal Land-Use Scenarios to Assess Trade-Offs between Conservation, Development, and Social Values.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vanessa M Adams

    Full Text Available Development of land resources can contribute to increased economic productivity but can also negatively affect the extent and condition of native vegetation, jeopardize the persistence of native species, reduce water quality, and erode ecosystem services. Spatial planning must therefore balance outcomes for conservation, development, and social goals. One approach to evaluating these trade-offs is scenario planning. In this paper we demonstrate methods for incorporating stakeholder preferences into scenario planning through both defining scenario objectives and evaluating the scenarios that emerge. In this way, we aim to develop spatial plans capable of informing actual land-use decisions. We used a novel approach to scenario planning that couples optimal land-use design and social evaluation of environmental outcomes. Four land-use scenarios combined differences in total clearing levels (10% and 20% in our study region, the Daly Catchment Australia, with the presence or absence of spatial precincts to concentrate irrigated agriculture. We used the systematic conservation planning tool Marxan with Zones to optimally plan for multiple land-uses that met objectives for both conservation and development. We assessed the performance of the scenarios in terms of the number of objectives met and the degree to which existing land-use policies were compromised (e.g., whether clearing limits in existing guidelines were exceeded or not. We also assessed the land-use scenarios using expected stakeholder satisfaction with changes in the catchment to explore how the scenarios performed against social preferences. There were a small fraction of conservation objectives with high conservation targets (100% that could not be met due to current land uses; all other conservation and development objectives were met in all scenarios. Most scenarios adhered to the existing clearing guidelines with only marginal exceedances of limits, indicating that the scenario

  18. From Seismic Scenarios to Earthquake Risk Assessment: A Case Study for Iquique, Chile.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aguirre, P.; Fortuno, C.; Martin, J. C. D. L. L.; Vasquez, J.

    2015-12-01

    Iquique is a strategic city and economic center in northern Chile, and is located in a large seismic gap where a megathrust earthquake and tsunami is expected. Although it was hit by a Mw 8.2 earthquake on April 1st 2014, which caused moderate damage, geophysical evidence still suggests that there is potential for a larger event, so a thorough risk assessment is key to understand the physical, social, and economic effects of such potential event, and devise appropriate mitigation plans. Hence, Iquique has been selected as a prime study case for the implementation of a risk assessment platform in Chile. Our study integrates research on three main elements of risk calculations: hazard evaluation, exposure model, and physical vulnerabilities. To characterize the hazard field, a set of synthetic seismic scenarios have been developed based on plate interlocking and the residual slip potential that results from subtracting the slip occurred during the April 1st 2014 rupture fault mechanism, obtained using InSAR+GPS inversion. Additional scenarios were developed based of the fault rupture model of the Maule 2010 Mw 8.8 earthquake and on the local plate locking models in northern Chile. These rupture models define a collection of possible realizations of earthquake geometries parameterized in terms of critical variables like slip magnitude, rise time, mean propagation velocity, directivity, and other, which are propagated to obtain a hazard map for Iquique (e.g. PGA, PGV, PDG). Furthermore, a large body of public and local data was used to construct a detailed exposure model for Iquique, including aggregated building count, demographics, essential facilities, and lifelines. This model together with the PGA maps for the April 1st 2014 earthquake are used to calibrate HAZUS outputs against observed damage, and adjust the fragility curves of physical systems according to more detailed analyses of typical Chilean building types and their structural properties, plus historical

  19. Life Cycle Assessment of Biogas Production from Marine Macroalgae: a Latvian Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pilicka, Iluta; Blumberga, Dagnija; Romagnoli, Francesco

    2011-01-01

    There is potential environmental benefit to be gained from the use of algae because of their ability to fix CO2, no need for direct land use and utilization of bio-waste (rich in potassium, phosphate and nitrogen based compounds) as a nutrients. The aim of the research is to assess the impact of biogas production and the final use in a cogeneration unit system from a Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) in comparison with a similar reference system using a non-renewable source (e.g. natural gas). The paper is intended to be a preliminary study for understanding the implementation of this novel technology in a Latvian context.

  20. Knowledge Brokerage for Impact Assessment of Land Use Scenarios in Inner Mongolia, China: Extending and Testing the FoPIA Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hannes J. König

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available While land serves numerous societal functions and contributes to sustainable development, it is often unclear how these functions are affected by political decisions and common drivers of land use change, such as economic development, climate change and demographic change. This study evaluates alternative land use scenarios in reference to a rural region of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region (China, where various processes and decisions have historically triggered unsustainable development. The scientifically tested “Framework for Participatory Impact Assessment (FoPIA” method is developed further to address specific features of the case study region, and its function as a knowledge-brokerage (KB tool is evaluated. Three scenarios are developed and analysed in expert workshops. “Land intensification: Agriculture” and “Land intensification: Mining” scenarios are found to have mainly negative environmental and social effects and positive economic impacts, while the “Environmental conservation and tourism” scenario is found to more positively affect all three sustainability dimensions. Assessments of methodological phases show that the FoPIA primarily serves to establish the KB process and that the framework particularly benefits from early examinations of scientific results by policy makers.

  1. The use of engineering design scenarios to assess student knowledge of global, societal, economic, and environmental contexts

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKenna, Ann F.; Hynes, Morgan M.; Johnson, Amy M.; Carberry, Adam R.

    2016-07-01

    Product archaeology as an educational approach asks engineering students to consider and explore the broader societal and global impacts of a product's manufacturing, distribution, use, and disposal on people, economics, and the environment. This study examined the impact of product archaeology in a project-based engineering design course on student attitudes and perceptions about engineering and abilities to extend and refine knowledge about broader contexts. Two design scenarios were created: one related to dental hygiene and one related to vaccination delivery. Design scenarios were used to (1) assess knowledge of broader contexts, and (2) test variability of student responses across different contextual situations. Results from pre- to post-surveying revealed improved student perceptions of knowledge of broader contexts. Significant differences were observed between the two design scenarios. The findings support the assumption that different design scenarios elicit consideration of different contexts and design scenarios can be constructed to target specific contextual considerations.

  2. Life cycle assessment and residue leaching: The importance of parameter, scenario and leaching data selection

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Allegrini, Elisa; Butera, Stefania; Kosson, D.S.

    2015-01-01

    of systems and products and can be applied to waste management systems to identify environmental benefits and critical aspects thereof. From an LCA perspective, residue utilisation provides benefits such as avoiding the production and depletion of primary materials, but it can lead to environmental burdens......Residues from industrial processes and waste management systems (WMSs) have been increasingly reutilised, leading to landfilling rate reductions and the optimisation of mineral resource utilisation in society. Life cycle assessment (LCA) is a holistic methodology allowing for the analysis......, due to the potential leaching of toxic substances. In waste LCA studies where residue utilisation is included, leaching has generally been neglected. In this study, municipal solid waste incineration bottom ash (MSWI BA) was used as a case study into three LCA scenarios having different system...

  3. WEB-GIS FOR ASSESSING SCENARIOS OF USING NATURAL RESOURCE POTENTIAL OF SOUTHERN MACROREGION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. E. Аrkhipova

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The article is devoted to the use of geoinformation technologies, including “cloud” services, for assessing the natural resource potential of the southern macroregion. The toolkit has been proposed to evaluate various scenarios of social and economic development of the regions and the associated use of the natural resource potential of the southern region. The geoinformation system for the regions of the South of Russia and a web application have been created.The methodology for assessing scenarios for usind the natural resource potential of the southern macroregion have been developed using ArcGis Online cloud technology. This technology allows you to run and maintain software and store data on the server by creating a private or combined cloud. Web-GIS are created on the basis of the interactive designer Story Map Journal℠.The relations in the nature-society system are evaluated on the example of two subjects of the Russian Federation that are part of the Southern and North-Caucasian federal districts – Rostov region and the Kabardino-Balkarian Republic. Investigation of the natural resource potential of the southern regions of Russia involves comparing the available reserves of a particular type of resources and the degree of their use. A comparison of the potential resource reserve and the real intensity of its consumption in the municipalities of these regions formed the basis for interpreting the obtained estimates of the efficiency of using of the natural resource potential. Quantitative estimates are obtained at the level of municipal regions using developed software tools that combine GIS, databases and mathematical modeling.

  4. The Peak of the Oil Age - Analyzing the world oil production Reference Scenario in World Energy Outlook 2008

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aleklett, Kjell; Hoeoek, Mikael; Jakobsson, Kristofer; Lardelli, Michael; Snowden, Simon; Soederbergh, Bengt

    2010-01-01

    The assessment of future global oil production presented in the IEA's World Energy Outlook 2008 (WEO 2008) is divided into 6 fractions; four relate to crude oil, one to non-conventional oil, and the final fraction is natural-gas-liquids (NGL). Using the production parameter, depletion-rate-of-recoverable-resources, we have analyzed the four crude oil fractions and found that the 75 Mb/d of crude oil production forecast for year 2030 appears significantly overstated, and is more likely to be in the region of 55 Mb/d. Moreover, analysis of the other fractions strongly suggests lower than expected production levels. In total, our analysis points to a world oil supply in 2030 of 75 Mb/d, some 26 Mb/d lower than the IEA predicts. The connection between economic growth and energy use is fundamental in the IEA's present modelling approach. Since our forecast sees little chance of a significant increase in global oil production, our findings suggest that the 'policy makers, investors and end users' to whom WEO 2008 is addressed should rethink their future plans for economic growth. The fact that global oil production has very probably passed its maximum implies that we have reached the Peak of the Oil Age.

  5. Proposals for enhanced health risk assessment and stratification in an integrated care scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dueñas-Espín, Ivan; Vela, Emili; Pauws, Steffen; Bescos, Cristina; Cano, Isaac; Cleries, Montserrat; Contel, Joan Carles; de Manuel Keenoy, Esteban; Garcia-Aymerich, Judith; Gomez-Cabrero, David; Kaye, Rachelle; Lahr, Maarten M H; Lluch-Ariet, Magí; Moharra, Montserrat; Monterde, David; Mora, Joana; Nalin, Marco; Pavlickova, Andrea; Piera, Jordi; Ponce, Sara; Santaeugenia, Sebastià; Schonenberg, Helen; Störk, Stefan; Tegner, Jesper; Velickovski, Filip; Westerteicher, Christoph; Roca, Josep

    2016-01-01

    Objectives Population-based health risk assessment and stratification are considered highly relevant for large-scale implementation of integrated care by facilitating services design and case identification. The principal objective of the study was to analyse five health-risk assessment strategies and health indicators used in the five regions participating in the Advancing Care Coordination and Telehealth Deployment (ACT) programme (http://www.act-programme.eu). The second purpose was to elaborate on strategies toward enhanced health risk predictive modelling in the clinical scenario. Settings The five ACT regions: Scotland (UK), Basque Country (ES), Catalonia (ES), Lombardy (I) and Groningen (NL). Participants Responsible teams for regional data management in the five ACT regions. Primary and secondary outcome measures We characterised and compared risk assessment strategies among ACT regions by analysing operational health risk predictive modelling tools for population-based stratification, as well as available health indicators at regional level. The analysis of the risk assessment tool deployed in Catalonia in 2015 (GMAs, Adjusted Morbidity Groups) was used as a basis to propose how population-based analytics could contribute to clinical risk prediction. Results There was consensus on the need for a population health approach to generate health risk predictive modelling. However, this strategy was fully in place only in two ACT regions: Basque Country and Catalonia. We found marked differences among regions in health risk predictive modelling tools and health indicators, and identified key factors constraining their comparability. The research proposes means to overcome current limitations and the use of population-based health risk prediction for enhanced clinical risk assessment. Conclusions The results indicate the need for further efforts to improve both comparability and flexibility of current population-based health risk predictive modelling approaches

  6. Proposals for enhanced health risk assessment and stratification in an integrated care scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dueñas-Espín, Ivan; Vela, Emili; Pauws, Steffen; Bescos, Cristina; Cano, Isaac; Cleries, Montserrat; Contel, Joan Carles; de Manuel Keenoy, Esteban; Garcia-Aymerich, Judith; Gomez-Cabrero, David; Kaye, Rachelle; Lahr, Maarten M H; Lluch-Ariet, Magí; Moharra, Montserrat; Monterde, David; Mora, Joana; Nalin, Marco; Pavlickova, Andrea; Piera, Jordi; Ponce, Sara; Santaeugenia, Sebastià; Schonenberg, Helen; Störk, Stefan; Tegner, Jesper; Velickovski, Filip; Westerteicher, Christoph; Roca, Josep

    2016-04-15

    Population-based health risk assessment and stratification are considered highly relevant for large-scale implementation of integrated care by facilitating services design and case identification. The principal objective of the study was to analyse five health-risk assessment strategies and health indicators used in the five regions participating in the Advancing Care Coordination and Telehealth Deployment (ACT) programme (http://www.act-programme.eu). The second purpose was to elaborate on strategies toward enhanced health risk predictive modelling in the clinical scenario. The five ACT regions: Scotland (UK), Basque Country (ES), Catalonia (ES), Lombardy (I) and Groningen (NL). Responsible teams for regional data management in the five ACT regions. We characterised and compared risk assessment strategies among ACT regions by analysing operational health risk predictive modelling tools for population-based stratification, as well as available health indicators at regional level. The analysis of the risk assessment tool deployed in Catalonia in 2015 (GMAs, Adjusted Morbidity Groups) was used as a basis to propose how population-based analytics could contribute to clinical risk prediction. There was consensus on the need for a population health approach to generate health risk predictive modelling. However, this strategy was fully in place only in two ACT regions: Basque Country and Catalonia. We found marked differences among regions in health risk predictive modelling tools and health indicators, and identified key factors constraining their comparability. The research proposes means to overcome current limitations and the use of population-based health risk prediction for enhanced clinical risk assessment. The results indicate the need for further efforts to improve both comparability and flexibility of current population-based health risk predictive modelling approaches. Applicability and impact of the proposals for enhanced clinical risk assessment require

  7. Cancer: scenario and relationship of different geographical areas of the globe with special reference to North East-India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, Jagannath Dev; Kalit, Manoj; Nirmolia, Tulika; Saikia, Sidhartha Protim; Sharma, Arpita; Barman, Debanjana

    2014-01-01

    Cancer is becoming the most important public health burden around the globe. As per the GLOBOCAN 2008 estimates, about 12.7 million cancer cases and 7.6 million cancer deaths were estimated to have occurred in 2008. The burden of cancer cases for India in the year 2020 is calculated to be 1,148,757 (male 534,353; female 614,404) compared to 979,786 in 2010. The pattern of cancer incidence is varying among geographical regions, esophageal cancer for example being high in China, lung cancer in USA, and gallbladder cancer in Chile. The question remains why? Is it due to the diversity in genome pool, food habits, risk factor association and role of genetic susceptibility or some other factors associated with it? In India, the North East (NE)-India region is seeing a marked increase in cancer incidence and deaths, with a very different cancer incidence pattern compared to mainland India. The genome pool of the region is also quite distinct from the rest of India. Northeastern tribes are quite distinct from other groups; they are more closely related to East Asians than to other Indians. In this paper an attempt was made to see whether there is any similarity among the pattern of cancer incidence cases for different sites of NE-India region to South or East-Asia. Principal Component Analysis (PCA), Hierarchical Cluster Analysis (HCA), Pearson Correlation coefficient test was assessed to evaluate the linkage of North-East India region to other regions. A p value NE-India with South and East-Asian regions, which may lead to the conclusion that there might be a genetic linkage between these regions.

  8. Radioactive waste assessment using 'minimum waste generation' scenario - summary report March 1984

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Richardson, J.A.; Goodill, D.R.; Tymons, B.J.

    1984-11-01

    This report describes an assessment of radioactive waste management arisings from a defined nuclear power generation - Scheme 1. Scheme 1 assumes a minimum waste generation scenario with raw waste arisings from 3 main groups; (i) existing and committed commercial reactors; (ii) fuel reprocessing plants, (iii) research, industry and medicine. No decommissioning wastes are considered except for arisings from the final fuel cores from decommissioned reactors. The study uses the SIMULATION2 code which models waste material flows through the system. With a knowledge of the accumulations and average production rates of the raw wastes and their isotopic compositions (or total activities), the rates at which conditioned wastes become available for transportation and disposal are calculated, with specific activity levels. The data bases for the inventory calculations and the assumptions concerning future operation of nuclear facilities were those current in 1983. Both the inventory data and plans for the future of existing nuclear installations have been updated since these calculations were completed. Therefore the results from this assessment do not represent the most up-to-date information available. The report does, however, illustrate the methodology of assessment and indicates the type of information that can be generated. (author)

  9. Integrated environmental assessment of future energy scenarios based on economic equilibrium models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Igos, E.; Rugani, B.; Rege, S.; Benetto, E.; Drouet, L.; Zachary, D.; Haas, T.

    2014-01-01

    The future evolution of energy supply technologies strongly depends on (and affects) the economic and environmental systems, due to the high dependency of this sector on the availability and cost of fossil fuels, especially on the small regional scale. This paper aims at presenting the modeling system and preliminary results of a research project conducted on the scale of Luxembourg to assess the environmental impact of future energy scenarios for the country, integrating outputs from partial and computable general equilibrium models within hybrid Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) frameworks. The general equilibrium model for Luxembourg, LUXGEM, is used to evaluate the economic impacts of policy decisions and other economic shocks over the time horizon 2006-2030. A techno-economic (partial equilibrium) model for Luxembourg, ETEM, is used instead to compute operation levels of various technologies to meet the demand for energy services at the least cost along the same timeline. The future energy demand and supply are made consistent by coupling ETEM with LUXGEM so as to have the same macro-economic variables and energy shares driving both models. The coupling results are then implemented within a set of Environmentally-Extended Input-Output (EE-IO) models in historical time series to test the feasibility of the integrated framework and then to assess the environmental impacts of the country. Accordingly, a dis-aggregated energy sector was built with the different ETEM technologies in the EE-IO to allow hybridization with Life Cycle Inventory (LCI) and enrich the process detail. The results show that the environmental impact slightly decreased overall from 2006 to 2009. Most of the impacts come from some imported commodities (natural gas, used to produce electricity, and metalliferous ores and metal scrap). The main energy production technology is the combined-cycle gas turbine plant 'Twinerg', representing almost 80% of the domestic electricity production in Luxembourg

  10. An assessment of the potentials of nuclear power and carbon capture and storage in the long-term global warming mitigation options based on Asian Modeling Exercise scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mori, Shunsuke

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents an evaluation of global warming mitigation options based on scenarios from the Asian Modeling Exercise. Using an extended version of the integrated assessment model MARIA-23 (Multiregional Approach for Resource and Industry Allocation), we analyze nuclear fuel recycling options, carbon capture and storage technologies (CCS), and biomass utilization. To assess the potential implications of decreased social acceptance of nuclear power in the wake of the Fukushima nuclear accident, additional scenarios including a nuclear power expansion limitation, are analyzed. We also evaluate MARIA-23 model simulation estimates of long-term contributions and interrelationships among nuclear power, biomass, and CCS. Finally, potential costs of nuclear limitation under carbon control policies are assessed. The simulation results in this paper suggest the following: (1) under the reference scenario, global GDP losses in climate limitation scenarios range from 1.3% per year to 3.9% per year in 2060, rising to between 3.5% per year and 4.5% per year in 2100; (2) the use of nuclear fuel reprocessing technologies increase rapidly in all carbon control policy scenarios; (3) under a scenario where the price of CO 2 is $30 and nuclear power expansion is strictly limited, GDP losses increase significantly—from 4.5% per year to 6.4% per year by 2100; (4) nuclear power and CCS are substitute mitigation technologies. With nuclear power technology available CCS deployment reaches approximately 15,000 Mt-CO 2 per year by 2010; without a nuclear power option, CCS deployment rises to more than 80,000 Mt-CO 2 per year; and (5) biomass utilization cannot fully compensate for limitations to nuclear power expansion in policy scenarios. In addition to examining the role of these three technologies on global scales, we report results for several major Asian regions, namely Japan, China, and India. China tends to deploy nuclear power (if available) in response to rapidly growing

  11. Assessment of Alternative Scenarios for CO2 Reduction Potential in the Residential Building Sector

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Young-Sun Jeong

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The South Korean government announced its goals of reducing the country’s CO2 emissions by up to 30% below the business as usual (BAU projections by 2020 in 2009 and 37% below BAU projections by 2030 in 2015. This paper explores the potential energy savings and reduction in CO2 emissions offered by residential building energy efficiency policies and plans in South Korea. The current and future energy consumption and CO2 emissions in the residential building were estimated using an energy–environment model from 2010 to 2030. The business as usual scenario is based on the energy consumption characteristic of residential buildings using the trends related to socio-economic prospects and the number of dwellings. The alternative scenarios took into account energy efficiency for new residential buildings (scenario I, refurbishment of existing residential buildings (scenario II, use of highly efficient boilers (scenario III, and use of a solar thermal energy system (scenario IV. The results show that energy consumption in the residential building sector will increase by 33% between 2007 and 2030 in the BAU scenario. Maximum reduction in CO2 emissions in the residential building sector of South Korea was observed by 2030 in scenario I. In each alternative scenario analysis, CO2 emissions were 12.9% lower than in the business as usual scenario by the year 2030.

  12. Statistical downscaling of the French Mediterranean climate: assessment for present and projection in an anthropogenic scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Lavaysse

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available The Mediterranean basin is a particularly vulnerable region to climate change, featuring a sharply contrasted climate between the North and South and governed by a semi-enclosed sea with pronounced surrounding topography covering parts of the Europe, Africa and Asia regions. The physiographic specificities contribute to produce mesoscale atmospheric features that can evolve to high-impact weather systems such as heavy precipitation, wind storms, heat waves and droughts. The evolution of these meteorological extremes in the context of global warming is still an open question, partly because of the large uncertainty associated with existing estimates produced by global climate models (GCM with coarse horizontal resolution (~200 km. Downscaling climatic information at a local scale is, thus, needed to improve the climate extreme prediction and to provide relevant information for vulnerability and adaptation studies. In this study, we investigate wind, temperature and precipitation distributions for past recent climate and future scenarios at eight meteorological stations in the French Mediterranean region using one statistical downscaling model, referred as the "Cumulative Distribution Function transform" (CDF-t approach. A thorough analysis of the uncertainty associated with statistical downscaling and bi-linear interpolation of large-scale wind speed, temperature and rainfall from reanalyses (ERA-40 and three GCM historical simulations, has been conducted and quantified in terms of Kolmogorov-Smirnov scores. CDF-t produces a more accurate and reliable local wind speed, temperature and rainfall. Generally, wind speed, temperature and rainfall CDF obtained with CDF-t are significantly similar with the observed CDF, even though CDF-t performance may vary from one station to another due to the sensitivity of the driving large-scale fields or local impact. CDF-t has then been applied to climate simulations of the 21st century under B1 and A2 scenarios

  13. Public Review Draft: A Method for Assessing Carbon Stocks, Carbon Sequestration, and Greenhouse-Gas Fluxes in Ecosystems of the United States Under Present Conditions and Future Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bergamaschi, Brian A.; Bernknopf, Richard; Clow, David; Dye, Dennis; Faulkner, Stephen; Forney, William; Gleason, Robert; Hawbaker, Todd; Liu, Jinxun; Liu, Shu-Guang; Prisley, Stephen; Reed, Bradley; Reeves, Matthew; Rollins, Matthew; Sleeter, Benjamin; Sohl, Terry; Stackpoole, Sarah; Stehman, Stephen; Striegl, Robert G.; Wein, Anne; Zhu, Zhi-Liang; Zhu, Zhi-Liang

    2010-01-01

    The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA), Section 712, authorizes the U.S. Department of the Interior to develop a methodology and conduct an assessment of the Nation's ecosystems focusing on carbon stocks, carbon sequestration, and emissions of three greenhouse gases (GHGs): carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide. The major requirements include (1) an assessment of all ecosystems (terrestrial systems, such as forests, croplands, wetlands, shrub and grasslands; and aquatic ecosystems, such as rivers, lakes, and estuaries), (2) an estimation of annual potential capacities of ecosystems to increase carbon sequestration and reduce net GHG emissions in the context of mitigation strategies (including management and restoration activities), and (3) an evaluation of the effects of controlling processes, such as climate change, land use and land cover, and wildlfires. The purpose of this draft methodology for public review is to propose a technical plan to conduct the assessment. Within the methodology, the concepts of ecosystems, carbon pools, and GHG fluxes used for the assessment follow conventional definitions in use by major national and international assessment or inventory efforts. In order to estimate current ecosystem carbon stocks and GHG fluxes and to understand the potential capacity and effects of mitigation strategies, the method will use two time periods for the assessment: 2001 through 2010, which establishes a current ecosystem GHG baseline and will be used to validate the models; and 2011 through 2050, which will be used to assess future potential conditions based on a set of projected scenarios. The scenario framework is constructed using storylines of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report Emission Scenarios (SRES), along with initial reference land-use and land-cover (LULC) and land-management scenarios. An additional three LULC and land-management mitigation scenarios will be constructed for each

  14. Assessing economic impact of storm surge under projected sea level rise scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Del Angel, D. C.; Yoskowitz, D.

    2017-12-01

    Global sea level is expected to rise 0.2-2m by the year 2100. Rising sea level is expected to have a number of impacts such as erosion, saltwater intrusion, and decline in coastal wetlands; all which have direct and indirect socio-economic impact to coastal communities. By 2050, 25% of the world's population will reside within flood-prone areas. These statistics raise a concern for the economic cost that sea level and flooding has on the growing coastal communities. Economic cost of storm surge inundation and rising seas may include loss or damage to public facilities and infrastructure that may become temporarily inaccessible, as well as disruptions to business and services. This goal of this project is to assess economic impacts of storms under four SLR scenarios including low, intermediate-low, intermediate-high, and high (0.2m, 0.5m, 1.2m and 2m, respectively) in the Northern Gulf of Mexico region. To assess flooding impact on communities from storm surge, this project utilizes HAZUS-MH software - a Geographic Information System (GIS)-based modeling tool developed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency - to estimate physical, economic, and social impacts of natural disasters such as floods, earthquakes and hurricanes. The HAZUS database comes integrated with aggregate and site specific inventory which includes: demographic data, general building stock, agricultural statistics, vehicle inventory, essential facilities, transportation systems, utility systems (among other sensitive facilities). User-defined inundation scenarios will serve to identify assets at risk and damage estimates will be generated using the Depth Damage Function included in the HAZUS software. Results will focus on 3 communities in the Gulf and highlight changes in storm flood impact. This approach not only provides a method for economic impact assessment but also begins to create a link between ecosystem services and natural and nature-based features such as wetlands, beaches and dunes

  15. Participatory Approach to Long-Term Socio-Economic Scenarios as Building Block of a Local Vulnerability and Risk Assessment Tool - The Case Study Lienz (East-Tyrol)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyer, Ina; Eder, Brigitte; Hama, Michiko; Leitner, Markus

    2016-04-01

    Risks associated with climate change are mostly still understood and analyzed in a sector- or hazard-specific and rarely in a systemic, dynamic and scenario-based manner. In addition, socio-economic trends are often neglected in local vulnerability and risk assessments although they represent potential key determinants of risk and vulnerability. The project ARISE (Adaptation and Decision Support via Risk Management Through Local Burning Embers) aims at filling this gap by applying a participatory approach to socio-economic scenario building as building block of a local vulnerability assessment and risk management tool. Overall, ARISE aims at developing a decision support system for climate-sensitive iterative risk management as a key adaptation tool for the local level using Lienz in the East-Tyrol as a test-site City. One central building block is participatory socio-economic scenario building that - together with regionalized climate change scenarios - form a centrepiece in the process-oriented assessment of climate change risks and vulnerability. Major vulnerabilities and risks may stem from the economic performance, the socio-economic or socio-demographic developments or changes in asset exposition and not from climate change impacts themselves. The IPCC 5th assessment report underlines this and states that for most economic sectors, the impact of climate change may be small relative to the impacts of other driving forces such as changes in population growth, age, income, technology, relative prices, lifestyle, regulation, governance and many other factors in the socio-economy (Arent et al., 2014). The paper presents the methodology, process and results with respect to the building of long-term local socio-economic scenarios for the City of Lienz and the surrounding countryside. Scenarios were developed in a participatory approach using a scenario workshop that involved major stakeholders from the region. Participatory approaches are increasingly recognized as

  16. A long-term, integrated impact assessment of alternative building energy code scenarios in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yu, Sha; Eom, Jiyong; Evans, Meredydd; Clarke, Leon

    2014-01-01

    China is the second largest building energy user in the world, ranking first and third in residential and commercial energy consumption. Beginning in the early 1980s, the Chinese government has developed a variety of building energy codes to improve building energy efficiency and reduce total energy demand. This paper studies the impact of building energy codes on energy use and CO 2 emissions by using a detailed building energy model that represents four distinct climate zones each with three building types, nested in a long-term integrated assessment framework GCAM. An advanced building stock module, coupled with the building energy model, is developed to reflect the characteristics of future building stock and its interaction with the development of building energy codes in China. This paper also evaluates the impacts of building codes on building energy demand in the presence of economy-wide carbon policy. We find that building energy codes would reduce Chinese building energy use by 13–22% depending on building code scenarios, with a similar effect preserved even under the carbon policy. The impact of building energy codes shows regional and sectoral variation due to regionally differentiated responses of heating and cooling services to shell efficiency improvement. - Highlights: • We assessed long-term impacts of building codes and climate policy using GCAM. • Building energy codes would reduce Chinese building energy use by 13–22%. • The impacts of codes on building energy use vary by climate region and sub-sector

  17. Development of Digital Mock-Up for the Assessment of Dismantling Scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Sung-Kyun; Park, Hee-Sung; Lee, Kune-Woo; Jung, Chong-Hun

    2008-01-01

    As the number of superannuated research reactors and nuclear power plants increase, dismantling nuclear power facilities has become a big issue. However, decommissioning a nuclear facility is still a costly and possibly hazardous task. So prior to an actual decommission, what should be done foremost is to establish a proper procedure. Due to the fact that a significant difference in cost, exposure to a radiation, and safety might occur, a proper procedure is imperative for the entire engineering process. The purpose of this paper is to develop a system for evaluating the decommissioning scenarios logically and systematically. So a digital mockup system with functions such as a dismantling schedule, decommissioning costs, wastes, worker's exposure dose, and a radiation distribution was developed. Also on the basis of the quantitative information calculated from a DMU system and the data evaluated by decommissioning experts about qualitatively evaluating the items, the best decommissioning scenarios were established by using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method. Finally, the DMU was implemented in the thermal column of KRR-1 and adequate scenarios were provided after comparing and analyzing the two scenarios. In this paper, we developed the virtual environment of KRR-1 by using computer graphic technology and simulating the dismantling processes. The data-computing modules were also developed for quantitatively comparing the decommissioning scenarios. The decommissioning DMU system was integrated with both the VE system and the data-computing modules. In addition, we presented a decision-making method for selecting the best decommissioning scenario through the AHP. So the scenarios can be evaluated logically and quantitatively through the decommissioning DMU. As an implementation of the AHP, the plasma cutting scenario and the nibbler cutting scenario of the thermal column were prioritized. The fact that the plasma cutting scenario ranked the better than the

  18. Online scenario labeling using a hidden Markov model for assessment of nuclear plant state

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zamalieva, Daniya; Yilmaz, Alper; Aldemir, Tunc

    2013-01-01

    By taking into account both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties within the same probabilistic framework, dynamic event trees (DETs) provide more comprehensive and systematic coverage of possible scenarios following an initiating event compared to conventional event trees. When DET generation algorithms are applied to complex realistic systems, extremely large amounts of data can be produced due to both the large number of scenarios generated following a single initiating event and the large number of data channels that represent these scenarios. In addition, the computational time required for the simulation of each scenario can be very large (e.g. about 24 h of serial run simulation time for a 4 h station blackout scenario). Since scenarios leading to system failure are more of interest, a method is proposed for online labeling of scenarios as failure or non-failure. The algorithm first trains a Hidden Markov Model, which represents the behavior of non-failure scenarios, using a training set from previous simulations. Then, the maximum likelihoods of sample failure and non-failure scenarios fitting this model are computed. These values are used to determine the timestamp at which the labeling of a certain scenario should be performed. Finally, during the succeeding timestamps, the likelihood of each scenario fitting the learned model is computed, and a dynamic thresholding based on the previously calculated likelihood values is applied. The scenarios whose likelihood is higher than the threshold are labeled as non-failure. The proposed algorithm can further delay the non-failure scenarios or discontinue them in order to redirect the computational resources toward the failure scenarios, and reduce computational time and complexity. Experiments using RELAP5/3D model of a fast reactor utilizing an Reactor Vessel Auxiliary Cooling System (RVACS) passive decay heat removal system and dynamic analysis of a station blackout (SBO) event show that the proposed method is

  19. Construct and face validity of the educational computer-based environment (ECE) assessment scenarios for basic endoneurosurgery skills.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cagiltay, Nergiz Ercil; Ozcelik, Erol; Sengul, Gokhan; Berker, Mustafa

    2017-11-01

    In neurosurgery education, there is a paradigm shift from time-based training to criterion-based model for which competency and assessment becomes very critical. Even virtual reality simulators provide alternatives to improve education and assessment in neurosurgery programs and allow for several objective assessment measures, there are not many tools for assessing the overall performance of trainees. This study aims to develop and validate a tool for assessing the overall performance of participants in a simulation-based endoneurosurgery training environment. A training program was developed in two levels: endoscopy practice and beginning surgical practice based on four scenarios. Then, three experiments were conducted with three corresponding groups of participants (Experiment 1, 45 (32 beginners, 13 experienced), Experiment 2, 53 (40 beginners, 13 experienced), and Experiment 3, 26 (14 novices, 12 intermediate) participants). The results analyzed to understand the common factors among the performance measurements of these experiments. Then, a factor capable of assessing the overall skill levels of surgical residents was extracted. Afterwards, the proposed measure was tested to estimate the experience levels of the participants. Finally, the level of realism of these educational scenarios was assessed. The factor formed by time, distance, and accuracy on simulated tasks provided an overall performance indicator. The prediction correctness was very high for the beginners than the one for experienced surgeons in Experiments 1 and 2. When non-dominant hand is used in a surgical procedure-based scenario, skill levels of surgeons can be better predicted. The results indicate that the scenarios in Experiments 1 and 2 can be used as an assessment tool for the beginners, and scenario-2 in Experiment 3 can be used as an assessment tool for intermediate and novice levels. It can be concluded that forming the balance between perceived action capacities and skills is

  20. From "farm to fork" strawberry system: current realities and potential innovative scenarios from life cycle assessment of non-renewable energy use and green house gas emissions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Girgenti, Vincenzo; Peano, Cristiana; Baudino, Claudio; Tecco, Nadia

    2014-03-01

    In this study, we analysed the environmental profile of the strawberry industry in Northern Italy. The analysis was conducted using two scenarios as reference systems: strawberry crops grown in unheated plastic tunnels using currently existing cultivation techniques, post-harvest management practices and consumption patterns (scenario 1) and the same strawberry cultivation chain in which some of the materials used were replaced with bio-based materials (scenario 2). In numerous studies, biodegradable polymers have been shown to be environmentally friendly, thus potentially reducing environmental impacts. These materials can be recycled into carbon dioxide and water through composting. Many materials, such as Mater-BI® and PLA®, are also derived from renewable resources. The methodology chosen for the environmental analysis was a life cycle assessment (LCA) based on a consequential approach developed to assess a product's overall environmental impact from the production system to its usage and disposal. In the field stage, a traditional mulching film (non-biodegradable) could be replaced with a biodegradable product. This change would result in waste production of 0 kg/ha for the bio-based product compared to 260 kg/ha of waste for polyethylene (PE). In the post-harvest stage, the issue addressed was the use and disposal of packaging materials. The innovative scenario evaluated herein pertains to the use of new packaging materials that increase the shelf life of strawberries, thereby decreasing product losses while increasing waste management efficiency at the level of a distribution platform and/or sales outlet. In the event of product deterioration or non-sale of the product, the packaging and its contents could be collected together as organic waste without any additional processes because the packaging is compostable according to EN13432. Scenario 2 would achieve reductions of 20% in the global warming potential and non-renewable energy impact categories

  1. Assessing Regional Scale Variability in Extreme Value Statistics Under Altered Climate Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brunsell, Nathaniel [Univ. of Kansas, Lawrence, KS (United States); Mechem, David [Univ. of Kansas, Lawrence, KS (United States); Ma, Chunsheng [Wichita State Univ., KS (United States)

    2015-02-20

    validity of an innovative multi–resolution information theory approach, and the ability of the RCM modeling framework to represent the low-frequency modulation of extreme climate events. Once the skill of the modeling and analysis methodology has been established, we will apply the same approach for the AR5 (IPCC Fifth Assessment Report) climate change scenarios in order to assess how climate extremes and the the influence of lowfrequency variability on climate extremes might vary under changing climate. The research specifically addresses the DOE focus area 2. Simulation of climate extremes under a changing climate. Specific results will include (1) a better understanding of the spatial and temporal structure of extreme events, (2) a thorough quantification of how extreme values are impacted by low-frequency climate teleconnections, (3) increased knowledge of current regional climate models ability to ascertain these influences, and (4) a detailed examination of the how the distribution of extreme events are likely to change under different climate change scenarios. In addition, this research will assess the ability of the innovative wavelet information theory approach to characterize extreme events. Any and all of these results will greatly enhance society’s ability to understand and mitigate the regional ramifications of future global climate change.

  2. Life cycle assessment of Italian citrus-based products. Sensitivity analysis and improvement scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beccali, Marco; Cellura, Maurizio; Iudicello, Maria; Mistretta, Marina

    2010-07-01

    Though many studies concern the agro-food sector in the EU and Italy, and its environmental impacts, literature is quite lacking in works regarding LCA application on citrus products. This paper represents one of the first studies on the environmental impacts of citrus products in order to suggest feasible strategies and actions to improve their environmental performance. In particular, it is part of a research aimed to estimate environmental burdens associated with the production of the following citrus-based products: essential oil, natural juice and concentrated juice from oranges and lemons. The life cycle assessment of these products, published in a previous paper, had highlighted significant environmental issues in terms of energy consumption, associated CO(2) emissions, and water consumption. Starting from such results the authors carry out an improvement analysis of the assessed production system, whereby sustainable scenarios for saving water and energy are proposed to reduce environmental burdens of the examined production system. In addition, a sensitivity analysis to estimate the effects of the chosen methods will be performed, giving data on the outcome of the study. Uncertainty related to allocation methods, secondary data sources, and initial assumptions on cultivation, transport modes, and waste management is analysed. The results of the performed analyses allow stating that every assessed eco-profile is differently influenced by the uncertainty study. Different assumptions on initial data and methods showed very sensible variations in the energy and environmental performances of the final products. Besides, the results show energy and environmental benefits that clearly state the improvement of the products eco-profile, by reusing purified water use for irrigation, using the railway mode for the delivery of final products, when possible, and adopting efficient technologies, as the mechanical vapour recompression, in the pasteurisation and

  3. The use of scenarios as the basis for combined assessment of climate change mitigation and adaptation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Vuuren, D.P.; Isaac, M.; Kundzewicz, Z.W.; Arnell, N.; Barker, T.; Criqui, P.; Berkhout, F.; Hilderink, H.; Hinkel, J.; Hof, Andries; Kitous, A.; Kram, T.; Mechler, R.; Scrieciu, S.

    2011-01-01

    Scenarios are used to explore the consequences of different adaptation and mitigation strategies under uncertainty. In this paper, two scenarios are used to explore developments with (1) no mitigation leading to an increase of global mean temperature of 4 °C by 2100 and (2) an ambitious mitigation

  4. Assessing reference evapotranspiration in a subhumid climate in NE Austria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nolz, Reinhard; Eitzinger, Josef; Cepuder, Peter

    2015-04-01

    Computing reference evapotranspiration and multiplying it with a specific crop coefficient as recommended by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) is the most widely accepted approach to estimate plant water requirements. The standardized form of the well-known FAO Penman-Monteith equation, published by the Environmental and Water Resources Institute of the American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE-EWRI), is recommended as a standard procedure for calculating reference evapotranspiration. Applied and validated under different climatic conditions it generally achieved good results compared to other methods. However, several studies documented deviations between measured and calculated reference evapotranspiration depending on local environmental conditions. Consequently, it seems advisable to evaluate the model under local environmental conditions. Evapotranspiration was determined at a subhumid site in Austria (48°12'N, 16°34'E; 157 m asl) using a large weighing lysimeter operated at (limited) reference conditions and compared with calculations according to ASCE-EWRI. The lysimeter had an inner diameter of 1.9 m and a hemispherical bottom with a maximum depth of 2.5 m. Seepage water was measured at a free draining outlet using a tipping bucket. Lysimeter mass changes were sensed by a weighing facility with an accuracy of ±0.1 mm. Both rainfall and evapotranspiration were determined directly from lysimeter data using a simple water balance equation. Meteorological data for the ASCE-EWRI model were obtained from a weather station of the Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics, Austria (ZAMG). The study period was from 2005 to 2010, analyses were based upon daily time steps. Daily calculated reference evapotranspiration was generally overestimated at small values, whereas it was rather underestimated when evapotranspiration was large, which is supported also by other studies. In the given case, advection of sensible heat proved

  5. Analysis of multiple failure accident scenarios for development of probabilistic safety assessment model for KALIMER-600

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, T.W.; Suk, S.D.; Chang, W.P.; Kwon, Y.M.; Jeong, H.Y.; Lee, Y.B.; Ha, K.S.; Kim, S.J.

    2009-01-01

    A sodium-cooled fast reactor (SFR), KALIMER-600, is under development at KAERI. Its fuel is the metal fuel of U-TRU-Zr and it uses sodium as coolant. Its advantages are found in the aspects of an excellent uranium resource utilization, inherent safety features, and nonproliferation. The probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) will be one of the initiating subjects for designing it from the aspects of a risk informed design (RID) as well as a technology-neutral licensing (TNL). The core damage is defined as coolant voiding, fuel melting, or cladding damage. Accident scenarios which lead to the core damage should be identified for the development of a Level-1 PSA model. The SSC-K computer code is used to identify the conditions which lead to core damage. KALIMER-600 has passive safety features such as passive shutdown functions, passive pump coast-down features, and passive decay heat removal systems. It has inherent reactivity feedback effects such as Doppler, sodium void, core axial expansion, control rod axial expansion, core radial expansion, etc. The accidents which are analyzed are the multiple failure accidents such as an unprotected transient overpower, a loss of flow, and a loss of heat sink events with degraded safety systems or functions. The safety functions to be considered here are a reactor trip, inherent reactivity feedback features, the pump coast-down, and the passive decay heat removal. (author)

  6. Fabric-skin models to assess infection transfer for impetigo contagiosa in a kindergarten scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerhardts, A; Henze, S V; Bockmühl, D; Höfer, D

    2015-06-01

    Children in community bodies like kindergartens are predisposed to suffer from impetigo. To consider important measures for infection prevention, direct and indirect transmission routes of pathogens must be revealed. Therefore, we studied the role of skin and fabrics in the spread of the impetigo pathogen Staphylococcus aureus and the strain Streptococcus equi (surrogate to Streptococcus pyogenes) in order to assess infection transfer in realistic scenarios. The transmission of test strains was studied with standardized fabric-skin models using a technical artificial skin and fabrics of different fiber types commonly occurring in German kindergartens. In synthetic pus, both test strains persisted on artificial skin and fabrics for at least 4 h. Friction enhanced transfer, depending on the fiber type or fabric construction. In a skin-to-skin setup, the total transfer was higher than via fabrics and no decrease in the transmission rates from donor to recipients could be observed after successive direct skin contacts. Children in kindergartens may be at risk of transmission for impetigo pathogens, especially via direct skin contact, but also by the joint use of fabrics, like towels or handicraft materials. Fabric-skin models used in this study enable further insight into the transmission factors for skin infections on the basis of a practical approach.

  7. Comparative assessment of the European and Latin American scenarios for NORM/TENORM exposure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Steinhaeusler, F.; Paschoa, A.S.

    2002-01-01

    The geological formation of the areas of high natural radioactivity are usually associated with mineral ores commercially important. As a consequence, extracting industries are installed in or near those areas. Several industrial products and byproducts can be obtained from thorium, uranium and potassium rich mineral ores, for example: niobium concentrate from pyrochlore; monazite, ilmenite, rutile and zirconite concentrates from monazite sands; phosphate fertilizers from apatite; tin and lead from cassiterite; gold and copper form a variety of thorium and uranium rich mineral matrices. Other industries like oil- and natural gas production and processing, production of thoriated tungsten lamps, welding, gas mantles and pigments produce non-negligible amounts of wastes containing technologically enhanced naturally occurring radioactive materials (TENORM). In addition, quite frequently unknown amounts of natural radionuclides end up embedded in a variety of consumer products. Thus, naturally occurring radioactive materials (NORM) as well as TENORM in consumer products and/or industrial wastes may be of importance as far as human exposures are concerned. This work will present a comparative assessment of the radiological significance of different NORM/TENORM exposure scenarios in Europe and Latin America. (author)

  8. Assessment and comparison of total RF-EMF exposure in femtocell and macrocell base station scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aerts, Sam; Plets, David; Verloock, Leen; Martens, Luc; Joseph, Wout

    2014-12-01

    The indoor coverage of a mobile service can be drastically improved by deployment of an indoor femtocell base station (FBS). However, the impact of its proximity on the total exposure of the human body to radio-frequency (RF) electromagnetic fields (EMFs) is unknown. Using a framework designed for the combination of near-field and far-field exposure, the authors assessed and compared the RF-EMF exposure of a mobile-phone (MP) user that is either connected to an FBS or a conventional macrocell base station while in an office environment. It is found that, in average macrocell coverage and MP use-time conditions and for Universal Mobile Telecommunications System technology, the total exposure can be reduced by a factor of 20-40 by using an FBS, mostly due to the significant decrease in the output power of the MP. In general, the framework presented in this study can be used for any exposure scenario, featuring any number of technologies, base stations and/or access points, users and duration. © The Author 2013. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  9. Seismic Hazard Assessment for a Characteristic Earthquake Scenario: Probabilistic-Deterministic Method

    Science.gov (United States)

    mouloud, Hamidatou

    2016-04-01

    The objective of this paper is to analyze the seismic activity and the statistical treatment of seismicity catalog the Constantine region between 1357 and 2014 with 7007 seismic event. Our research is a contribution to improving the seismic risk management by evaluating the seismic hazard in the North-East Algeria. In the present study, Earthquake hazard maps for the Constantine region are calculated. Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is classically performed through the Cornell approach by using a uniform earthquake distribution over the source area and a given magnitude range. This study aims at extending the PSHA approach to the case of a characteristic earthquake scenario associated with an active fault. The approach integrates PSHA with a high-frequency deterministic technique for the prediction of peak and spectral ground motion parameters in a characteristic earthquake. The method is based on the site-dependent evaluation of the probability of exceedance for the chosen strong-motion parameter. We proposed five sismotectonique zones. Four steps are necessary: (i) identification of potential sources of future earthquakes, (ii) assessment of their geological, geophysical and geometric, (iii) identification of the attenuation pattern of seismic motion, (iv) calculation of the hazard at a site and finally (v) hazard mapping for a region. In this study, the procedure of the earthquake hazard evaluation recently developed by Kijko and Sellevoll (1992) is used to estimate seismic hazard parameters in the northern part of Algeria.

  10. Women's Drinking Decisions in Heterosocial Situations: Development and Validation of Scenarios to Assess Influence of Attraction and Risk-Awareness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noel, Nora E; Ogle, Richard L; Maisto, Stephen A; Jackson, Lee A; Loomis, Randi B; Heaton, Jennifer A

    2016-07-01

    These three related studies created a set of ecologically valid scenarios for assessing relative associations of both attraction and sexual coercion risk-recognition in college women's heterosocial situational drinking decisions. The first study constructed nine scenarios using input from heterosexual drinking women in the age cohort (18-30) most likely to experience alcohol-related sexual coercion. In the second study, 50 female undergraduates (ages 18-25) assessed the salience of three important dimensions (attraction, risk, and realism) in these scenarios. The third study was a factor analysis (and a follow-up confirmatory factor analysis) of the elements of coercion-risk as perceived by the target group with two female samples recruited 1 year apart (Sample 1: N = 157, ages 18-29); Sample 2: N = 157, ages 18-30). Results confirmed that the scenarios could be a useful vehicle for assessing how women balance out risk and attraction to make in-the moment heterosocial drinking decisions. The factor analysis showed participants perceived two types of situations, based on whether the male character was "Familiar" or "Just Met" and perceived themselves as happier and more excited with Familiar males. However, in contrast to HIV risk studies, Familiar males were perceived as higher risk for unwanted sex. Future research will use the six scenarios that emerged from the factor analysis to study how attraction and risk perception differentially affect young adult women's social drinking decisions.

  11. Efficient Adoption and Assessment of Multiple Process Improvement Reference Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simona Jeners

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available A variety of reference models such as CMMI, COBIT or ITIL support IT organizations to improve their processes. These process improvement reference models (IRMs cover different domains such as IT development, IT Services or IT Governance but also share some similarities. As there are organizations that address multiple domains and need to coordinate their processes in their improvement we present MoSaIC, an approach to support organizations to efficiently adopt and conform to multiple IRMs. Our solution realizes a semantic integration of IRMs based on common meta-models. The resulting IRM integration model enables organizations to efficiently implement and asses multiple IRMs and to benefit from synergy effects.

  12. Self-assessment in cancer patients referred to palliative care

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Strömgren, Annette S; Goldschmidt, Dorthe; Groenvold, Mogens

    2002-01-01

    the symptomatology of participating patients and examines differences in symptomatology between patients in three palliative care functions: inpatient, outpatient, and palliative home care. RESULTS: Of 267 eligible patients who were referred to a department of palliative medicine, initial self......-based study of symptomatology in consecutive cancer patients in palliative care, achieving rather complete data from the participants. The symptomatology in these patients was very pronounced. The questionnaires were able to detect clinically important differences between places of service....

  13. Broadband Ground Motion Simulation Recipe for Scenario Hazard Assessment in Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koketsu, K.; Fujiwara, H.; Irikura, K.

    2014-12-01

    codes using ground motions from the 2005 Fukuoka earthquake. Irikura and Miyake (2011) summarized the latter validations, concluding that the ground motions were successfully simulated as shown in the figure. This indicates that the recipe has enough potential to generate broadband ground motions for scenario hazard assessment in Japan.

  14. A global assessment of gross and net land change dynamics for current conditions and future scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuchs, Richard; Prestele, Reinhard; Verburg, Peter H.

    2018-05-01

    The consideration of gross land changes, meaning all area gains and losses within a pixel or administrative unit (e.g. country), plays an essential role in the estimation of total land changes. Gross land changes affect the magnitude of total land changes, which feeds back to the attribution of biogeochemical and biophysical processes related to climate change in Earth system models. Global empirical studies on gross land changes are currently lacking. Whilst the relevance of gross changes for global change has been indicated in the literature, it is not accounted for in future land change scenarios. In this study, we extract gross and net land change dynamics from large-scale and high-resolution (30-100 m) remote sensing products to create a new global gross and net change dataset. Subsequently, we developed an approach to integrate our empirically derived gross and net changes with the results of future simulation models by accounting for the gross and net change addressed by the land use model and the gross and net change that is below the resolution of modelling. Based on our empirical data, we found that gross land change within 0.5° grid cells was substantially larger than net changes in all parts of the world. As 0.5° grid cells are a standard resolution of Earth system models, this leads to an underestimation of the amount of change. This finding contradicts earlier studies, which assumed gross land changes to appear in shifting cultivation areas only. Applied in a future scenario, the consideration of gross land changes led to approximately 50 % more land changes globally compared to a net land change representation. Gross land changes were most important in heterogeneous land systems with multiple land uses (e.g. shifting cultivation, smallholder farming, and agro-forestry systems). Moreover, the importance of gross changes decreased over time due to further polarization and intensification of land use. Our results serve as an empirical database for

  15. Some viewpoints on reference biospheres in Finnish performance assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rasilainen, K.; Kattilakoski, E.; Suolanen, V.; Vieno, T.; Vuori, S.

    2002-01-01

    Viewpoints are presented concerning biosphere studies in performance assessments of nuclear waste disposal. The points are based on experiences from several Finnish performance assessments. The latest performance assessment for spent fuel disposal, TILA-99, was considered in the Decision in Principle process for the site selection of the repository. The points given are also based on experiences from participation in international projects dealing with biosphere modelling, for instance BIOMOVS and BIOMASS. (author)

  16. Environmental influences on mate preferences as assessed by a scenario manipulation experiment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marzoli, Daniele; Moretto, Francesco; Monti, Aura; Tocci, Ornella; Roberts, S Craig; Tommasi, Luca

    2013-01-01

    Many evolutionary psychology studies have addressed the topic of mate preferences, focusing particularly on gender and cultural differences. However, the extent to which situational and environmental variables might affect mate preferences has been comparatively neglected. We tested 288 participants in order to investigate the perceived relative importance of six traits of an ideal partner (wealth, dominance, intelligence, height, kindness, attractiveness) under four different hypothetical scenarios (status quo/nowadays, violence/post-nuclear, poverty/resource exhaustion, prosperity/global well-being). An equal number of participants (36 women, 36 men) was allotted to each scenario; each was asked to allocate 120 points across the six traits according to their perceived value. Overall, intelligence was the trait to which participants assigned most importance, followed by kindness and attractiveness, and then by wealth, dominance and height. Men appraised attractiveness as more valuable than women. Scenario strongly influenced the relative importance attributed to traits, the main finding being that wealth and dominance were more valued in the poverty and post-nuclear scenarios, respectively, compared to the other scenarios. Scenario manipulation generally had similar effects in both sexes, but women appeared particularly prone to trade off other traits for dominance in the violence scenario, and men particularly prone to trade off other traits for wealth in the poverty scenario. Our results are in line with other correlational studies of situational variables and mate preferences, and represent strong evidence of a causal relationship of environmental factors on specific mate preferences, corroborating the notion of an evolved plasticity to current ecological conditions. A control experiment seems to suggest that our scenarios can be considered as realistic descriptions of the intended ecological conditions.

  17. Environmental influences on mate preferences as assessed by a scenario manipulation experiment.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniele Marzoli

    Full Text Available Many evolutionary psychology studies have addressed the topic of mate preferences, focusing particularly on gender and cultural differences. However, the extent to which situational and environmental variables might affect mate preferences has been comparatively neglected. We tested 288 participants in order to investigate the perceived relative importance of six traits of an ideal partner (wealth, dominance, intelligence, height, kindness, attractiveness under four different hypothetical scenarios (status quo/nowadays, violence/post-nuclear, poverty/resource exhaustion, prosperity/global well-being. An equal number of participants (36 women, 36 men was allotted to each scenario; each was asked to allocate 120 points across the six traits according to their perceived value. Overall, intelligence was the trait to which participants assigned most importance, followed by kindness and attractiveness, and then by wealth, dominance and height. Men appraised attractiveness as more valuable than women. Scenario strongly influenced the relative importance attributed to traits, the main finding being that wealth and dominance were more valued in the poverty and post-nuclear scenarios, respectively, compared to the other scenarios. Scenario manipulation generally had similar effects in both sexes, but women appeared particularly prone to trade off other traits for dominance in the violence scenario, and men particularly prone to trade off other traits for wealth in the poverty scenario. Our results are in line with other correlational studies of situational variables and mate preferences, and represent strong evidence of a causal relationship of environmental factors on specific mate preferences, corroborating the notion of an evolved plasticity to current ecological conditions. A control experiment seems to suggest that our scenarios can be considered as realistic descriptions of the intended ecological conditions.

  18. Assessing the Energy and Emissions Implications of Alternative Population Scenarios Using a State-Level Integrated Assessment Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, W.; Nolte, C. G.; Loughlin, D. H.; Ou, Y.; Smith, S. J.

    2017-12-01

    We use GCAM-USA to examine the sensitivity of energy demands and resulting pollutant emissions and health impacts to differing population projections. The population projections are based on future fertility, mortality, migration and education assumptions consistent with the five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) (Jones and O'Neill, 2016). By using a state-level integrated assessment model, we capture the energy and emissions implications of population changes. Additionally, we overlay heating degree days and cooling degree days calculated from climate change projections to assess the individual and combined impacts of population shifts and climate change. A unique aspect of this work is the explicit representation of important regulatory drivers, such as the Cross-State Air Pollution Rule and vehicle efficiency standards. Preliminary results indicate there are significant differences across population scenarios in both U.S. national and state-level emissions. In this presentation, we will examine the influence of underlying factors such as climate, population, and technology changes on emissions and environmental impacts at 2050.

  19. Life-cycle analysis of the total Danish energy system. An assessment of the present Danish energy system and selected furture scenarios. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kuemmel, B; Soerensen, B

    1997-01-01

    The promise of life-cycle analysis (LCA) is to enable the incorporation of environmental and social impacts into decision-making processes. The challenge is to do it on the basis of the always incomplete and uncertain data available, in a way that is sufficiently transparent to avoid that the modeller introduces any particular bias into the decision process, by the way of selecting and treating the incomplete data. The life-cycle analysis of the currently existing system is to be seen as a reference, against which alternative solutions to the same problem is weighed. However, as it takes time to introduce new systems, the alternative scenarios are for a future situation, which is chosen as the middle of the 21st century. The reason for using a 30-50 year period is a reflection on the time needed for a smooth transition to an energy system based on sources different from the ones used today, with implied differences all the way through the conversion and end-use system. A scenario will only be selected if it has been identified and if there is social support for it, so construction of more exotic scenarios by the researcher would only be meaningful, if its advantages are so convincing that an interest can be created and the necessary social support be forthcoming. One may say that the energy scenarios based on renewable energy sources are in this category, as they were identified by a minority group (of scientists and other individuals) and successfully brought to the attention of the public debate during 1970ies. In any case it should be kept in mind, that no claim of having identified the optimum solution can be made after assessing a finite number of scenarios. (EG) 88 refs.

  20. Exposure Scenarios and Unit Dose Factors for the Hanford Immobilized Low Activity Tank Waste Performance Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    RITTMANN, P.D.

    1999-12-29

    Exposure scenarios are defined to identify potential pathways and combinations of pathways that could lead to radiation exposure from immobilized tank waste. Appropriate data and models are selected to permit calculation of dose factors for each exposure

  1. Assessment and modeling of inductive and non-inductive scenarios for ITER

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boucher, D.; Vayakis, G.; Moreau, D.

    1999-01-01

    This paper presents recent developments in modeling and simulations of ITER performances and scenarios. The first part presents an improved modeling of coupled divertor/main plasma operation including the simulation of the measurements involved in the control loop. The second part explores the fusion performances predicted under non-inductive operation with internal transport barrier. The final part covers a detailed scenario for non-inductive operation using a reverse shear configuration with lower hybrid and fast wave current drive. (author)

  2. An Event-Based Approach to Design a Teamwork Training Scenario and Assessment Tool in Surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, Ngan; Watson, William D; Dominguez, Edward

    2016-01-01

    Simulation is a technique recommended for teaching and measuring teamwork, but few published methodologies are available on how best to design simulation for teamwork training in surgery and health care in general. The purpose of this article is to describe a general methodology, called event-based approach to training (EBAT), to guide the design of simulation for teamwork training and discuss its application to surgery. The EBAT methodology draws on the science of training by systematically introducing training exercise events that are linked to training requirements (i.e., competencies being trained and learning objectives) and performance assessment. The EBAT process involves: Of the 4 teamwork competencies endorsed by the Agency for Healthcare Research Quality and Department of Defense, "communication" was chosen to be the focus of our training efforts. A total of 5 learning objectives were defined based on 5 validated teamwork and communication techniques. Diagnostic laparoscopy was chosen as the clinical context to frame the training scenario, and 29 KSAs were defined based on review of published literature on patient safety and input from subject matter experts. Critical events included those that correspond to a specific phase in the normal flow of a surgical procedure as well as clinical events that may occur when performing the operation. Similar to the targeted KSAs, targeted responses to the critical events were developed based on existing literature and gathering input from content experts. Finally, a 29-item EBAT-derived checklist was created to assess communication performance. Like any instructional tool, simulation is only effective if it is designed and implemented appropriately. It is recognized that the effectiveness of simulation depends on whether (1) it is built upon a theoretical framework, (2) it uses preplanned structured exercises or events to allow learners the opportunity to exhibit the targeted KSAs, (3) it assesses performance, and (4

  3. Assessing climate change impacts, benefits of mitigation, and uncertainties on major global forest regions under multiple socioeconomic and emissions scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    John B Kim; Erwan Monier; Brent Sohngen; G Stephen Pitts; Ray Drapek; James McFarland; Sara Ohrel; Jefferson Cole

    2016-01-01

    We analyze a set of simulations to assess the impact of climate change on global forests where MC2 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) was run with climate simulations from the MIT Integrated Global System Model-Community Atmosphere Model (IGSM-CAM) modeling framework. The core study relies on an ensemble of climate simulations under two emissions scenarios: a...

  4. Assessments of long-term effects of CO2 and 14C: Various energy scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matthies, M.; Paretzke, H.G.

    1982-01-01

    A non-linear model for the global carbon cycle has been developed and applied for prognostic assessment of concentrations of CO 2 from the combustion of fossil fuel and of radiocarbon released from facilities of the nuclear fuel cycle. The model is built up from two boxes for the atmosphere (stratosphere, troposphere), three boxes for the ocean (mixed surface layer, deep sea and sediments), and two boxes for the biosphere (short-and long-lived biota) with non-linear troposphere-biota and troposphere-ocean surface layer exchange rates and linear fluxes between the other reservoirs. Two different models are used for the man-made reduction of the biomass: (a) no deforestation function, and (b) slightly growing deforestation function. The three scenarios considered are: (I) annual energy growth rates of 2% and 4%, no nuclear power; (II) an upper, lower and medium estimate of replacement of fossil fuels by nuclear power. In addition, two assumptions concerning the decontamination of 14 C in the nuclear power plant effluents were made: one in which 14 C is released completely, and one with a decontamination factor of 4. Assuming logistic source functions for the increase of fossil-fuel combustion and an exponential growth of nuclear power until the year 2020, by around 2100 the CO 2 concentration of the troposphere will reach concentrations twice to five times as high as the pre-industrial level. Various environmental effects of this increasing CO 2 level are briefly discussed. The specific 14 C activity of the atmosphere is decreased. Up to the year 2200, the specific activity will be lower than the pre-industrial level. The individual lifetime dose commitments (70 years) are found between 0.85 and 0.45 mSv (pre-industrial value: 0.73 mSv)

  5. Environmental assessment overview, Reference repository location, Hanford site, Washington

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1986-05-01

    In February 1983, the US Department of Energy (DOE) identified a reference repository location at the Hanford Site in Washington as one of the nine potentially acceptable sites for a mined geologic repository for spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste. The site is in the Columbia Plateau, which is one of five distinct geohydrologic settings considered for the first repository. To determine their suitability, the Hanford site and the eight other potentially acceptable sites have been evaluated in accordance with the DOE's General Guidelines for the Recommendation of Sites for the Nuclear Waste Repositories. On the basis of the evaluations reported in this EA, the DOE has found that the Hanford site is not disqualified under the guidelines. On the basis of these findings, the DOE is nominating the Hanford site as one of five sites suitable for characterization. 3 figs

  6. Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) reference document. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murphy, J.A.

    1984-09-01

    This document describes the current status of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) as practiced in the nuclear reactor regulatory process. The PRA studies that have been completed or are under way are reviewed. The levels of maturity of the methodologies used in a PRA are discussed. Insights derived from PRAs are listed. The potential uses of PRA results for regulatory purposes are discussed. This document was issued for comment in February 1984 entitled Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA): Status Report and Guidance for Regulatory Application. The comments received on the draft have been considered for this final version of the report

  7. ASSESSMENT AND DECISION MAKING SCENARIO OF CARBON EMISSION IN SUGAR INDUSTRY BASED ON ENERGY CONSUMPTION USING SYSTEM DYNAMICS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    CHAIRUL SALEH

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available This research is conducted to assess and create some scenarios in the sugar industry, which aimed to decrease the production of CO2 emissions in PT Madubaru. In this research, the assessment of CO2 emission is based on the energy consumption used in supply chain activities during the production period in 2014. The problem faced in this research is the used of energy for transportation and production in a complex condition. Thus, simulation modeling based on system dynamic has been proposed to build the assessment model and create a scenario. The result shows that PT Madubaru produces around 174,246,500 kg in 171 days or during the production period in 2014. It means that the amount of CO2 emission in a day is around 1,018,985 kg. Two scenarios haves been developeded in order to reduce CO2 emissions. First, changing the old type boiler with the new one by increasing 155% fuel efficiency. This scenario is proven to reduce the amount of CO2 by 44% or become 98,800,400 kg. Second, eliminating the use of lorry which reduce the 0.2% of CO2 emission or equal to 387,600 kg.

  8. A method for scenario-based risk assessment for robust aerospace systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Victoria Katherine

    involved in completing the modeling and simulation are: Alternative Solution Modeling, Uncertainty Quantification, Risk Assessment, and Risk Mitigation. Focus area three consists of Decision Support. In this area a decision support interface is created that allows for game playing between solution alternatives and risk mitigation. A multi-attribute decision making process is also implemented to aid in decision making. A demonstration problem inspired by Airbus' mid 1980s decision to break into the widebody long-range market was developed to illustrate the use of this method. The results showed that the method is able to capture additional types of risk than previous analysis methods, particularly at the early stages of aircraft design. It was also shown that the method can be used to help create a system that is robust to external environmental factors. The addition of an external environment risk analysis in the early stages of conceptual design can add another dimension to the analysis of feasibility and viability. The ability to take risk into account during the early stages of the design process can allow for the elimination of potentially feasible and viable but too-risky alternatives. The addition of a scenario-based analysis instead of a traditional probabilistic analysis enabled uncertainty to be effectively bound and examined over a variety of potential futures instead of only a single future. There is also potential for a product to be groomed for a specific future that one believes is likely to happen, or for a product to be steered during design as the future unfolds.

  9. Socio-economic scenario development for the assessment of climate change impacts on agricultural land use: a pairwise comparison approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Abildtrup, Jens; Audsley, E.; Fekete-Farkas, M.

    2006-01-01

    Assessment of the vulnerability of agriculture to climate change is strongly dependent on concurrent changes in socio-economic development pathways. This paper presents an integrated approach to the construction of socio-economic scenarios required for the analysis of climate change impacts...... on European agricultural land use. The scenarios are interpreted from the storylines described in the intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) special report on emission scenarios (SRES), which ensures internal consistency between the evolution of socio-economics and climate change. A stepwise...... downscaling procedure based on expert-judgement and pairwise comparison is presented to obtain quantitative socio-economic parameters, e.g. prices and productivity estimates that are input to the ACCELERATES integrated land use model. In the first step, the global driving forces are identified and quantified...

  10. Regional Issue Identification and Assessment (RIIA): an analysis of the mid-range projection, Series C Scenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Honea, B.; Hillsman, E.

    1979-10-01

    The Department of Energy has hypothesized a number of alternate energy futures as part of its energy planning and analysis programs. How a proposed energy future called the Mid-Range Projection Series C Scenario would affect Federal Region VI (Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Texas, and New Mexico) is examined in this report. This scenario assumes a medium supply and a medium demand for fuel through 1990, and it incorporates the fuel-switching provisions of the Energy Supply and Environmental Coordination Act. The report portrays the major regional environmental, human health and safety, socioeconomic, and institutional effects that might result from the realization of the Series C Scenario. This discussion should serve as a basis for further assessments, as it identifies some issues of major concern for Region VI that must be addressed in more depth.

  11. Assessment of effectiveness of geologic isolation systems. A conceptual simulation model for release scenario analysis of a hypothetical site in Columbia Plateau Basalts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stottlemyre, J.A.; Petrie, G.M.; Benson, G.L.; Zellmer, J.T.

    1981-01-01

    This report is a status report for an evolving methodology for release scenario development for underground nuclear waste repositories. As such, it is intended for use as a reference point and a preliminary description of an evolving geoscience methodology. When completed this methodology will be used as a tool in developing disruptive release scenarios for analyzing the long-term safety of geological nuclear waste repositories. While a basalt environment is used as an example, this report is not intended to reflect an actual site safety assessment for a repository in a media. It is rather intended to present a methodology system framework and to provide discussions of the geological phenomena and parameters that must be addressed in order to develop a methodology for potential release scenarios. It is also important to note that the phenomena, their interrelationships, and their relative importance along with the overall current structure of the model will change as new geological information is gathered through additional peer review, geotechnical input, site specific field work, and related research efforts

  12. Environmental assessment: Reference repository location, Hanford Site, Washington

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1986-05-01

    This appendix responds to the issues raised by Federal, State, and local governments, affected Indian Tribes, private citizens, and other organizations on the draft environmental assessment (EA) that was prepared pursuant to Section 112 of the Nuclear Waste Policy Act of 1982. In addition to presenting the issues raised in the comments and the responses, it describes where changes were made in the final EA. 535 refs., 13 figs., 16 tabs

  13. Environmental assessment: Reference repository location, Hanford Site, Washington (US)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    none,

    1986-05-01

    This appendix responds to the issues raised by Federal, State, and local governments, affected Indian Tribes, private citizens, and other organizations on the draft environmental assessment (EA) that was prepared pursuant to Section 112 of the Nuclear Waste Policy Act of 1982. In addition to presenting the issues raised in the comments and the responses, it describes where changes were made in the final EA. 535 refs., 13 figs., 16 tabs.

  14. Multi-hazard Assessment and Scenario Toolbox (MhAST): A Framework for Analyzing Compounding Effects of Multiple Hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sadegh, M.; Moftakhari, H.; AghaKouchak, A.

    2017-12-01

    Many natural hazards are driven by multiple forcing variables, and concurrence/consecutive extreme events significantly increases risk of infrastructure/system failure. It is a common practice to use univariate analysis based upon a perceived ruling driver to estimate design quantiles and/or return periods of extreme events. A multivariate analysis, however, permits modeling simultaneous occurrence of multiple forcing variables. In this presentation, we introduce the Multi-hazard Assessment and Scenario Toolbox (MhAST) that comprehensively analyzes marginal and joint probability distributions of natural hazards. MhAST also offers a wide range of scenarios of return period and design levels and their likelihoods. Contribution of this study is four-fold: 1. comprehensive analysis of marginal and joint probability of multiple drivers through 17 continuous distributions and 26 copulas, 2. multiple scenario analysis of concurrent extremes based upon the most likely joint occurrence, one ruling variable, and weighted random sampling of joint occurrences with similar exceedance probabilities, 3. weighted average scenario analysis based on a expected event, and 4. uncertainty analysis of the most likely joint occurrence scenario using a Bayesian framework.

  15. Hydrological and water quality impact assessment of a Mediterranean limno-reservoir under climate change and land use management scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molina-Navarro, Eugenio; Trolle, Dennis; Martínez-Pérez, Silvia; Sastre-Merlín, Antonio; Jeppesen, Erik

    2014-02-01

    Water scarcity and water pollution constitute a big challenge for water managers in the Mediterranean region today and will exacerbate in a projected future warmer world, making a holistic approach for water resources management at the catchment scale essential. We expanded the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model developed for a small Mediterranean catchment to quantify the potential effects of various climate and land use change scenarios on catchment hydrology as well as the trophic state of a new kind of waterbody, a limno-reservoir (Pareja Limno-reservoir), created for environmental and recreational purposes. We also checked for the possible synergistic effects of changes in climate and land use on water flow and nutrient exports from the catchment. Simulations showed a noticeable impact of climate change in the river flow regime and consequently the water level of the limno-reservoir, especially during summer, complicating the fulfillment of its purposes. Most of the scenarios also predicted a deterioration of trophic conditions in the limno-reservoir. Fertilization and soil erosion were the main factors affecting nitrate and total phosphorus concentrations. Combined climate and land use change scenarios showed noticeable synergistic effects on nutrients exports, relative to running the scenarios individually. While the impact of fertilization on nitrate export is projected to be reduced with warming in most cases, an additional 13% increase in the total phosphorus export is expected in the worst-case combined scenario compared to the sum of individual scenarios. Our model framework may help water managers to assess and manage how these multiple environmental stressors interact and ultimately affect aquatic ecosystems.

  16. Using cognitive referents in making sense of teaching: A chemistry teacher's struggle to change assessment practices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Briscoe, Carol

    This qualitative case study focused on the role of cognitive referents in the sense-making process of one teacher as he attempted to change his classroom science assessment. The interpretations identify cultural myths, conceptual metonymys, as well as personally constructed beliefs as referents that constrained change. The teacher's cognitive struggle to make sense of assessment and his role as assessor are linked to conflicting referents he used in varying contexts including day-to-day assessment and summative assessment settings. The results of the study suggest that cognitive referents are important influences in driving how a teacher thinks about assessment and may constrain an individual teacher's implementation of innovative practices. Accordingly, identification of referents such as myths, their associated beliefs, and metonymic conceptual models that teachers use to make sense of their actions is an important first step in developing an understanding of constraints to educational change.

  17. Economic consequences assessment for scenarios and actual accidents do the same methods apply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brenot, J.

    1991-01-01

    Methods for estimating the economic consequences of major technological accidents, and their corresponding computer codes, are briefly presented with emphasis on the basic choices. When applied to hypothetic scenarios, those methods give results that are of interest for risk managers with a decision aiding perspective. Simultaneously the various costs, and the procedures for their estimation are reviewed for some actual accidents (Three Mile Island, Chernobyl,..). These costs are used in a perspective of litigation and compensation. The comparison of the methods used and cost estimates obtained for scenarios and actual accidents shows the points of convergence and discrepancies that are discussed

  18. Remediation strategies after nuclear or radiological accidents: part 2 - accident scenarios for assessing effectiveness of cleanup procedures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rochedo, Elaine R.R.

    2009-01-01

    The selection of protective measures and remediation strategies after an accident needs to be based on previously established criteria, to minimize unnecessary stress and the exposures involved in cleanup operations that are not effective in reducing doses to the public. In a first stage, a database describing the countermeasures has been developed including their efficiency on removing contamination from surfaces. However, to assess the effectiveness of cleanup procedures in reducing doses to members of the public, it was necessary to derive specific scenarios in order to simulate the long term behavior of the material in the environment, since the contribution of different surfaces to doses changes with time after contamination. A basic release and exposure scenario was developed to assess the dose reduction due to the mostly used procedures. Exposure scenarios were selected to fit the surroundings of the Brazilian nuclear power plants in Angra dos Reis. Simulations were performed using SIEM, the integrated system for dose assessment after contamination events, developed at IRD. The contamination of urban environments was assessed for Cs-137, as this was found to be the most relevant long term radionuclide to contribute to doses to member of the public. The effects on reducing external exposures were assessed for periods up to 50 years after the contamination. For agricultural areas, the focus was on ingestion doses from contamination with I-131 for periods up to 1 year after contamination. Results will be complemented on the database in order to support multi-criteria decision making processes after accidents. (author)

  19. Remediation strategies after nuclear or radiological accidents: part 2 - accident scenarios for assessing effectiveness of cleanup procedures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rochedo, Elaine R.R. [Comissao Nacional de Energia Nuclear (CNEN-RJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Coordenacao de Instalacoes Nucleares], e-mail: erochedo@cnen.gov.br; Silva, Diogo N.G.; Wasserman, Maria A.V.; Conti, Luiz F.C. [Instituto de Radioprotecao e Dosimetria (IRD/CNEN-RJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)], e-mail: dneves@ird.gov.br, e-mail: angelica@ird.gov.br, e-mail: lfcconti@ird.gov.br

    2009-07-01

    The selection of protective measures and remediation strategies after an accident needs to be based on previously established criteria, to minimize unnecessary stress and the exposures involved in cleanup operations that are not effective in reducing doses to the public. In a first stage, a database describing the countermeasures has been developed including their efficiency on removing contamination from surfaces. However, to assess the effectiveness of cleanup procedures in reducing doses to members of the public, it was necessary to derive specific scenarios in order to simulate the long term behavior of the material in the environment, since the contribution of different surfaces to doses changes with time after contamination. A basic release and exposure scenario was developed to assess the dose reduction due to the mostly used procedures. Exposure scenarios were selected to fit the surroundings of the Brazilian nuclear power plants in Angra dos Reis. Simulations were performed using SIEM, the integrated system for dose assessment after contamination events, developed at IRD. The contamination of urban environments was assessed for Cs-137, as this was found to be the most relevant long term radionuclide to contribute to doses to member of the public. The effects on reducing external exposures were assessed for periods up to 50 years after the contamination. For agricultural areas, the focus was on ingestion doses from contamination with I-131 for periods up to 1 year after contamination. Results will be complemented on the database in order to support multi-criteria decision making processes after accidents. (author)

  20. Rural and urban energy scenario of the developing countries and related health assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vohra, K.G.

    1982-01-01

    The pattern of energy use in India is considered in order to assess the impact on health of rural and urban energy sources in the developing countries. The health impact of the 'non-commercial' sources of energy used in India is discussed, with particular reference to the use of firewood and farm wastes for domestic cooking. The commercial energy sources considered include coal, oil and electricity. The generation of electricity from coal, hydro sources and nuclear fuels is discussed with regard to their health impact. The production and use of biogas instead of dried animal dung for domestic cooking in the rural areas of India is proposed in order to reduce the health detriment. On the basis of the past trend in the use of commercial and non-commercial energy in India, projections are made for the future, taking into consideration health detriment and evironmental damage associated with different sources. Finally, bases for changing the energy-use pattern in the developing countries are discussed, with particular emphasis on renewable sources and nuclear energy. (author)

  1. How to manage uncertainty in future Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) scenarios addressing the effect of climate change in crop production

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Niero, Monia; Ingvordsen, Cathrine Heinz; Bagger Jørgensen, Rikke

    2015-01-01

    When Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is used to provide insights on how to pursue future food demand, it faces the challenge to describe scenarios of the future in which the environmental impacts occur. In the case of future crop production, the effects of climate change should be considered. In this......When Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is used to provide insights on how to pursue future food demand, it faces the challenge to describe scenarios of the future in which the environmental impacts occur. In the case of future crop production, the effects of climate change should be considered....... In this context, the objectives of this paper are two-fold: (i) to recommend an approach to deal with uncertainty in scenario analysis for LCA of crop production in a changed climate, when the goal of the study is to suggest strategies for adaptation of crop cultivation practices towards low environmental impacts...... climate, soil, water loss and production parameters. Secondly, the handling of these factors in the inventory modeling is discussed and finally implemented in the case study. Our approach follows a 3-step procedure consisting of: (1) definition of a baseline scenario at the Life Cycle Inventory (LCI...

  2. Attack Trees for Practical Security Assessment: Ranking of Attack Scenarios with ADTool 2.0

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gadyatskaya, Olga; Jhawar, Ravi; Kordy, P.T.; Lounis, Karim; Mauw, Sjouke; Trujillo-Rasua, Rolando

    2016-01-01

    In this tool demonstration paper we present the ADTool2.0: an open-source software tool for design, manipulation and analysis of attack trees. The tool supports ranking of attack scenarios based on quantitative attributes entered by the user; it is scriptable; and it incorporates attack trees with

  3. Integrating land use and climate change scenarios and models into assessment of forested watershed services in Southern Thailand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trisurat, Yongyut; Eawpanich, Piyathip; Kalliola, Risto

    2016-05-01

    The Thadee watershed, covering 112km(2), is the main source of water for agriculture and household consumption in the Nakhon Srithammarat Province in Southern Thailand. As the natural forests upstream have been largely degraded and transformed to fruit tree and rubber plantations, problems with landslides and flooding have resulted. This research attempts to predict how further land-use/land-cover changes during 2009-2020 and conceivable changes in rainfall may influence the future levels of water yield and sediment load in the Thadee River. Three different land use scenarios (trend, development and conservation) were defined in collaboration with the local stakeholders, and three different rainfall scenarios (average rainfall, climate change and extreme wet) were determined on the basis of literature sources. Spatially explicit empirical modelling was employed to allocate future land demands and to assess the contributions of land use and rainfall changes, considering both their separate and combined effects. The results suggest that substantial land use changes may occur from a large expansion of rubber plantations in the upper sub-watersheds, especially under the development land use scenario. The reduction of the current annual rainfall by approximately 30% would decrease the predicted water yields by 38% from 2009. According to the extreme rainfall scenario (an increase of 36% with respect to current rainfall), an amplification of 50% of the current runoff could result. Sensitivity analyses showed that the predicted soil loss is more responsive to changes in rainfall than to the compared land use scenarios alone. However, very high sediment load and runoff levels were predicted on the basis of combined intensified land use and extreme rainfall scenarios. Three conservation activities-protection, reforestation and a mixed-cropping system-are proposed to maintain the functional watershed services of the Thadee watershed region. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc

  4. Assessing risks and uncertainties in forest dynamics under different management scenarios and climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthias Albert

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Background Forest management faces a climate induced shift in growth potential and increasing current and emerging new risks. Vulnerability analysis provides decision support based on projections of natural resources taking risks and uncertainties into account. In this paper we (1 characterize differences in forest dynamics under three management scenarios, (2 analyse the effects of the three scenarios on two risk factors, windthrow and drought stress, and (3 quantify the effects and the amount of uncertainty arising from climate projections on height increment and drought stress. Methods In four regions in northern Germany, we apply three contrasting management scenarios and project forest development under climate change until 2070. Three climate runs (minimum, median, maximum based on the emission scenario RCP 8.5 control the site-sensitive forest growth functions. The minimum and maximum climate run define the range of prospective climate development. Results The projections of different management regimes until 2070 show the diverging medium-term effects of thinnings and harvests and long-term effects of species conversion on a regional scale. Examples of windthrow vulnerability and drought stress reveal how adaptation measures depend on the applied management path and the decision-maker’s risk attitude. Uncertainty analysis shows the increasing variability of drought risk projections with time. The effect of climate projections on height growth are quantified and uncertainty analysis reveals that height growth of young trees is dominated by the age-trend whereas the climate signal in height increment of older trees is decisive. Conclusions Drought risk is a serious issue in the eastern regions independent of the applied silvicultural scenario, but adaptation measures are limited as the proportion of the most drought tolerant species Scots pine is already high. Windthrow risk is no serious overall threat in any region, but adequate

  5. Evaluating the adequacy of a reference site pool for ecological assessments in environmentally complex regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ode, Peter R.; Rehn, Andrew C.; Mazor, Raphael D.; Schiff, Kenneth C.; Stein, Eric D.; May, Jason; Brown, Larry R.; Herbst, David B.; Gillette, D.D.; Lunde, Kevin; Hawkins, Charles P.

    2016-01-01

    Many advances in the field of bioassessment have focused on approaches for objectively selecting the pool of reference sites used to establish expectations for healthy waterbodies, but little emphasis has been placed on ways to evaluate the suitability of the reference-site pool for its intended applications (e.g., compliance assessment vs ambient monitoring). These evaluations are critical because an inadequately evaluated reference pool may bias assessments in some settings. We present an approach for evaluating the adequacy of a reference-site pool for supporting biotic-index development in environmentally heterogeneous and pervasively altered regions. We followed common approaches for selecting sites with low levels of anthropogenic stress to screen 1985 candidate stream reaches to create a pool of 590 reference sites for assessing the biological integrity of streams in California, USA. We assessed the resulting pool of reference sites against 2 performance criteria. First, we evaluated how well the reference-site pool represented the range of natural gradients present in the entire population of streams as estimated by sites sampled through probabilistic surveys. Second, we evaluated the degree to which we were successful in rejecting sites influenced by anthropogenic stress by comparing biological metric scores at reference sites with the most vs fewest potential sources of stress. Using this approach, we established a reference-site pool with low levels of human-associated stress and broad coverage of environmental heterogeneity. This approach should be widely applicable and customizable to particular regional or programmatic needs.

  6. Children and adults exposed to electromagnetic fields at the ICNIRP reference levels: theoretical assessment of the induced peak temperature increase

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bakker, J F; Paulides, M M; Van Rhoon, G C [Erasmus MC-Daniel den Hoed Cancer Center, Department of Radiation Oncology, Section Hyperthermia, PO Box 5201, NL-3008 AE, Rotterdam (Netherlands); Neufeld, E; Christ, A; Kuster, N, E-mail: j.bakker@erasmusmc.nl [Foundation for Research on Information Technologies in Society (IT' IS) (Switzerland)

    2011-08-07

    To avoid potentially adverse health effects of electromagnetic fields (EMF), the International Commission on Non-Ionizing Radiation Protection (ICNIRP) has defined EMF reference levels. Restrictions on induced whole-body-averaged specific absorption rate (SAR{sub wb}) are provided to keep the whole-body temperature increase (T{sub body,incr}) under 1 deg. C during 30 min. Additional restrictions on the peak 10 g spatial-averaged SAR (SAR{sub 10g}) are provided to prevent excessive localized tissue heating. The objective of this study is to assess the localized peak temperature increase (T{sub incr,max}) in children upon exposure at the reference levels. Finite-difference time-domain modeling was used to calculate T{sub incr,max} in six children and two adults exposed to orthogonal plane-wave configurations. We performed a sensitivity study and Monte Carlo analysis to assess the uncertainty of the results. Considering the uncertainties in the model parameters, we found that a peak temperature increase as high as 1 deg. C can occur for worst-case scenarios at the ICNIRP reference levels. Since the guidelines are deduced from temperature increase, we used T{sub incr,max} as being a better metric to prevent excessive localized tissue heating instead of localized peak SAR. However, we note that the exposure time should also be considered in future guidelines. Hence, we advise defining limits on T{sub incr,max} for specified durations of exposure.

  7. Children and adults exposed to electromagnetic fields at the ICNIRP reference levels: theoretical assessment of the induced peak temperature increase.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bakker, J F; Paulides, M M; Neufeld, E; Christ, A; Kuster, N; van Rhoon, G C

    2011-08-07

    To avoid potentially adverse health effects of electromagnetic fields (EMF), the International Commission on Non-Ionizing Radiation Protection (ICNIRP) has defined EMF reference levels. Restrictions on induced whole-body-averaged specific absorption rate (SAR(wb)) are provided to keep the whole-body temperature increase (T(body, incr)) under 1 °C during 30 min. Additional restrictions on the peak 10 g spatial-averaged SAR (SAR(10g)) are provided to prevent excessive localized tissue heating. The objective of this study is to assess the localized peak temperature increase (T(incr, max)) in children upon exposure at the reference levels. Finite-difference time-domain modeling was used to calculate T(incr, max) in six children and two adults exposed to orthogonal plane-wave configurations. We performed a sensitivity study and Monte Carlo analysis to assess the uncertainty of the results. Considering the uncertainties in the model parameters, we found that a peak temperature increase as high as 1 °C can occur for worst-case scenarios at the ICNIRP reference levels. Since the guidelines are deduced from temperature increase, we used T(incr, max) as being a better metric to prevent excessive localized tissue heating instead of localized peak SAR. However, we note that the exposure time should also be considered in future guidelines. Hence, we advise defining limits on T(incr, max) for specified durations of exposure.

  8. Assessing Orchestrated Simulation Through Modeling to Quantify the Benefits of Unmanned-Teaming in a Tactical ASW Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    2018-03-01

    be used by the model to create pseudo- random behavior for agents. This process is a critical aspect of the simulation because it allows for the...ORCHESTRATED SIMULATION THROUGH MODELING TO QUANTIFY THE BENEFITS OF UNMANNED–MANNED TEAMING IN A TACTICAL ASW SCENARIO by Preston T. Tilus March...Leave blank) 2. REPORT DATE March 2018 3. REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED Master’s thesis 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE ASSESSING ORCHESTRATED SIMULATION

  9. Tsunamigenic scenarios for southern Peru and northern Chile seismic gap: Deterministic and probabilistic hybrid approach for hazard assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    González-Carrasco, J. F.; Gonzalez, G.; Aránguiz, R.; Yanez, G. A.; Melgar, D.; Salazar, P.; Shrivastava, M. N.; Das, R.; Catalan, P. A.; Cienfuegos, R.

    2017-12-01

    Plausible worst-case tsunamigenic scenarios definition plays a relevant role in tsunami hazard assessment focused in emergency preparedness and evacuation planning for coastal communities. During the last decade, the occurrence of major and moderate tsunamigenic earthquakes along worldwide subduction zones has given clues about critical parameters involved in near-field tsunami inundation processes, i.e. slip spatial distribution, shelf resonance of edge waves and local geomorphology effects. To analyze the effects of these seismic and hydrodynamic variables over the epistemic uncertainty of coastal inundation, we implement a combined methodology using deterministic and probabilistic approaches to construct 420 tsunamigenic scenarios in a mature seismic gap of southern Peru and northern Chile, extended from 17ºS to 24ºS. The deterministic scenarios are calculated using a regional distribution of trench-parallel gravity anomaly (TPGA) and trench-parallel topography anomaly (TPTA), three-dimensional Slab 1.0 worldwide subduction zones geometry model and published interseismic coupling (ISC) distributions. As result, we find four higher slip deficit zones interpreted as major seismic asperities of the gap, used in a hierarchical tree scheme to generate ten tsunamigenic scenarios with seismic magnitudes fluctuates between Mw 8.4 to Mw 8.9. Additionally, we construct ten homogeneous slip scenarios as inundation baseline. For the probabilistic approach, we implement a Karhunen - Loève expansion to generate 400 stochastic tsunamigenic scenarios over the maximum extension of the gap, with the same magnitude range of the deterministic sources. All the scenarios are simulated through a non-hydrostatic tsunami model Neowave 2D, using a classical nesting scheme, for five coastal major cities in northern Chile (Arica, Iquique, Tocopilla, Mejillones and Antofagasta) obtaining high resolution data of inundation depth, runup, coastal currents and sea level elevation. The

  10. Long term safety assessment of geological waste disposal systems: issues on release scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khan, S.A.; Qureshi, A.A.

    1995-01-01

    Geological insolation of high level nuclear waste is an attractive waste disposal concept. However, long term safety demonstration of this concept is a major challenge to the operators, regulators and the scientific community. Identification of the factors responsible for the release of radionuclides from geosphere to biosphere,is first step in this regard. Current understanding of the release scenarios indicates that faulting, ground after percolation, seismicity, volcanism and human intrusion are the dominating release factors for most of the candidate rock formations. The major source of uncertainties is the probability values of various release events due to random nature of catastrophic geological events and past poor historical records of the frequencies of such events. There is consensus among the experts that the waste release via human intrusion is the most unpredictable scenario at present state of the knowledge. (author)

  11. Development of exploratory approach for scenario analysis in the performance assessment of geological disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Makino, Hitoshi; Ishiguro, Katsuhiko; Umeki, Hiroyuki; Oyamada, Kiyoshi; Takase, Hiroyasu; Grindrod, Peter

    1998-01-01

    It becomes difficult to apply the ordinary method for scenario analysis as number of the processes and complexity in their interrelations are increased. For this problem, an exploratory approach, that can perform scenario analysis on wider range of problems, was developed. The approach includes ensemble runs of a mass transport model, that was developed as a generic and flexible model and can cover effects of various processes on the mass transport, and analysis of sensitivity structure among the input and output space of the ensemble runs. The technique of clustering and principal component analysis were applied in the approach. As the result of its test application, applicability of the approach was confirmed to identify important processes from number of the processes in the systematic and objective manner. (author)

  12. High estimates of supply constrained emissions scenarios for long-term climate risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ward, James D.; Mohr, Steve H.; Myers, Baden R.; Nel, Willem P.

    2012-01-01

    The simulated effects of anthropogenic global warming have become important in many fields and most models agree that significant impacts are becoming unavoidable in the face of slow action. Improvements to model accuracy rely primarily on the refinement of parameter sensitivities and on plausible future carbon emissions trajectories. Carbon emissions are the leading cause of global warming, yet current considerations of future emissions do not consider structural limits to fossil fuel supply, invoking a wide range of uncertainty. Moreover, outdated assumptions regarding the future abundance of fossil energy could contribute to misleading projections of both economic growth and climate change vulnerability. Here we present an easily replicable mathematical model that considers fundamental supply-side constraints and demonstrate its use in a stochastic analysis to produce a theoretical upper limit to future emissions. The results show a significant reduction in prior uncertainty around projected long term emissions, and even assuming high estimates of all fossil fuel resources and high growth of unconventional production, cumulative emissions tend to align to the current medium emissions scenarios in the second half of this century. This significant finding provides much-needed guidance on developing relevant emissions scenarios for long term climate change impact studies. - Highlights: ► GHG emissions from conventional and unconventional fossil fuels modelled nationally. ► Assuming worst-case: large resource, high growth, rapid uptake of unconventional. ► Long-term cumulative emissions align well with the SRES medium emissions scenario. ► High emissions are unlikely to be sustained through the second half of this century. ► Model designed to be easily extended to test other scenarios e.g. energy shortages.

  13. Regional and urban downscaling of global climate scenarios for health impact assessments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    San Jose, R.; Perez, J.L.; Perez, L.; Gonzalez, R.M.; Pecci, J.; Garzon, A.; Palacios, M.

    2015-07-01

    In this contribution we have used global climate RCP IPCC scenarios to produce climate and air pollution maps at regional (25 km resolution) and urban scale with 200 m spatial resolution over Europe and five European cities in order to investigate the impact on meteorological variables and pollutant concentrations . We have used the very well known mesoscale meeorological model WRF-Chem (NOAA, US). We have used 2011 as control past year and two RCP scenarios from CCSM global climate model with 4.5 W/m2 and 8.5 W/m2 for 2030, 2050 and 2100 years. After running WRF-Chem model, using the boundary conditions provided by RCP scenarios with the emissions of 2011, we have performed a detailed downscaling process using CALMET diagnostic model to obtain a full 200 m spatial resolution map of five European cities (London, Antwerp, Madrid, Milan, and Helsinki). We will show the results and the health impacts for future RCP IPCC climate scenarios in comparison with the 2011 control year information for climate and health indicators. Finnally, we have also investigated the impact of the aerosol effects in the short wave radiation mean value. Two simulations with the WRF-Chem model have been performed over Europe in 2010. A baseline simulation without any feedback effects and a second simulation including the direct effects affecting the solar radiation reaching the surface as well as the indirect aerosol effect with potential impacts on increasing or decreasing the precipitation rates. Aerosol effects produce an increase of incoming radiation over Atlantic Ocean (up to 70%) because the prescribed aerosol concentrations in the WRF-Chem without feedbacks is substantially higher than the aerosol concentrations produced when we activate the feedback effects. The decrease in solar radiation in the Sahara area (10%) is found to be produced because the prescribed aerosol concentration in the {sup n}o feedback{sup s}imulation is lower than when we activate the feedback effects. (Author)

  14. Scenario based seismic hazard assessment and its application to the seismic verification of relevant buildings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romanelli, Fabio; Vaccari, Franco; Altin, Giorgio; Panza, Giuliano

    2016-04-01

    The procedure we developed, and applied to a few relevant cases, leads to the seismic verification of a building by: a) use of a scenario based neodeterministic approach (NDSHA) for the calculation of the seismic input, and b) control of the numerical modeling of an existing building, using free vibration measurements of the real structure. The key point of this approach is the strict collaboration, from the seismic input definition to the monitoring of the response of the building in the calculation phase, of the seismologist and the civil engineer. The vibrometry study allows the engineer to adjust the computational model in the direction suggested by the experimental result of a physical measurement. Once the model has been calibrated by vibrometric analysis, one can select in the design spectrum the proper range of periods of interest for the structure. Then, the realistic values of spectral acceleration, which include the appropriate amplification obtained through the modeling of a "scenario" input to be applied to the final model, can be selected. Generally, but not necessarily, the "scenario" spectra lead to higher accelerations than those deduced by taking the spectra from the national codes (i.e. NTC 2008, for Italy). The task of the verifier engineer is to act so that the solution of the verification is conservative and realistic. We show some examples of the application of the procedure to some relevant (e.g. schools) buildings of the Trieste Province. The adoption of the scenario input has given in most of the cases an increase of critical elements that have to be taken into account in the design of reinforcements. However, the higher cost associated with the increase of elements to reinforce is reasonable, especially considering the important reduction of the risk level.

  15. Regional and urban down scaling of global climate scenarios for health impact assessments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    San Jose, R.; Perez, J. L.; Perez, L.; Gonzalez, R. M.; Pecci, J.; Garzon, A.; Palacios, M.

    2015-07-01

    In this contribution we have used global climate RCP IPCC scenarios to produce climate and air pollution maps at regional (25 km resolution) and urban scale with 200 m spatial resolution over Europe and five European cities in order to investigate the impact on meteorological variables and pollutant concentrations . We have used the very well known mesoscale meteorological model WRF-Chem (NOAA, US). We have used 2011 as control past year and two RCP scenarios from CCSM global climate model with 4.5 W/m2 and 8.5 W/m2 for 2030, 2050 and 2100 years. After running WRF-Chem model, using the boundary conditions provided by RCP scenarios with the emissions of 2011, we have performed a detailed down scaling process using CALMET diagnostic model to obtain a full 200 m spatial resolution map of five European cities (London, Antwerp, Madrid, Milan, and Helsinki). We will show the results and the health impacts for future RCP IPCC climate scenarios in comparison with the 2011 control year information for climate and health indicators. Finally, we have also investigated the impact of the aerosol effects in the short wave radiation mean value. Two simulations with the WRF-Chem model have been performed over Europe in 2010. A baseline simulation without any feedback effects and a second simulation including the direct effects affecting the solar radiation reaching the surface as well as the indirect aerosol effect with potential impacts on increasing or decreasing the precipitation rates. Aerosol effects produce an increase of incoming radiation over Atlantic Ocean (up to 70%) because the prescribed aerosol concentrations in the WRF-Chem without feedbacks is substantially higher than the aerosol concentrations produced when we activate the feedback effects. The decrease in solar radiation in the Sahara area (10%) is found to be produced because the prescribed aerosol concentration in the no feedback simulation is lower than when we activate the feedback effects. (Author)

  16. Scenario Development and Delphi Application in Life Cycle Assessment for Assessing Environmental Impact of New Technology Case Study: Removal of Wind Turbines Project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Devina Fitrika Dewi

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Certain technology is intended to create eco-efficient products or process or is developed as answer to the recent challenge. This kind of technology consequently can also create another impact therefore it shall be assessed and analyzed.The focus of the study is on assessment method namely Life Cycle Analysis (LCA, Scenario development and Delphi application. The objective is to understand benefits and drawbacks of the combined methodology and observe practicality of its implementation for assessing new technology. The distinctive feature comes from the combination of social and technological foresight (as Delphi application and future studies (as Scenario development which are applied in the environmental assessment of a product (by Life Cycle Analysis.The utilization of LCA-Scenario-Delphi case study as an explanatory example is presented in the Removal Wind Turbines Project by the Danish Energy Agency. The wind turbine is considered new technology with some of it phases are yet to occur, for example: removal of turbines after phase out stage. Technology Assessment by LCA-Scenario-Delphi is complicated procedure, but necessary to validate the results. The drawbacks of this procedure are extensive time it consumes and the dependency on public participation and/or expert willingness to participate. Nonetheless, its advantages are due to its interactive feature; integration of knowledge from different areas of expertise and its assessment’s characteristic which focuses on process.

  17. AgMIP Climate Data and Scenarios for Integrated Assessment. Chapter 3

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruane, Alexander C.; Winter, Jonathan M.; McDermid, Sonali P.; Hudson, Nicholas I.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change presents a great challenge to the agricultural sector as changes in precipitation, temperature, humidity, and circulation patterns alter the climatic conditions upon which many agricultural systems rely. Projections of future climate conditions are inherently uncertain owing to a lack of clarity on how society will develop, policies that may be implemented to reduce greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions, and complexities in modeling the atmosphere, ocean, land, cryosphere, and biosphere components of the climate system. Global climate models (GCMs) are based on well-established physics of each climate component that enable the models to project climate responses to changing GHG concentration scenarios (Stocker et al., 2013).The most recent iteration of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5; Taylor et al., 2012) utilized representative concentration pathways (RCPs) to cover the range of plausible GHG concentrations out past the year 2100, with RCP8.5 representing an extreme scenario and RCP4.5 representing a lower concentrations scenario (Moss et al., 2010).

  18. Climate change impact assessment on flow regime by incorporating spatial correlation and scenario uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vallam, P.; Qin, X. S.

    2017-07-01

    Flooding risk is increasing in many parts of the world and may worsen under climate change conditions. The accuracy of predicting flooding risk relies on reasonable projection of meteorological data (especially rainfall) at the local scale. The current statistical downscaling approaches face the difficulty of projecting multi-site climate information for future conditions while conserving spatial information. This study presents a combined Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG) stochastic weather generator and multi-site rainfall simulator RainSim (CLWRS) approach to investigate flow regimes under future conditions in the Kootenay Watershed, Canada. To understand the uncertainty effect stemming from different scenarios, the climate output is fed into a hydrologic model. The results showed different variation trends of annual peak flows (in 2080-2099) based on different climate change scenarios and demonstrated that the hydrological impact would be driven by the interaction between snowmelt and peak flows. The proposed CLWRS approach is useful where there is a need for projection of potential climate change scenarios.

  19. Assessing groundwater pollution hazard changes under different socio-economic and environmental scenarios in an agricultural watershed

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lima, M. Lourdes, E-mail: mlima@mdp.edu.ar [Instituto de Geología de Costas y del Cuaternario, FCEyN, Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata, Funes 3350, Nivel 1, 7600 Mar del Plata (Argentina); Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (CONICET) (Argentina); Romanelli, Asunción, E-mail: aromanel@mdp.edu.ar [Instituto de Geología de Costas y del Cuaternario, FCEyN, Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata, Funes 3350, Nivel 1, 7600 Mar del Plata (Argentina); Instituto de Investigaciones Marinas y Costeras (IIMyC), Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (CONICET) (Argentina); Massone, Héctor E., E-mail: hmassone@mdp.edu.ar [Instituto de Geología de Costas y del Cuaternario, FCEyN, Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata, Funes 3350, Nivel 1, 7600 Mar del Plata (Argentina)

    2015-10-15

    This paper proposes a modeling approach for assessing changes in groundwater pollution hazard under two different socio-economic and environmental scenarios: The first one considers an exponential growth of agriculture land-use (Relegated Sustainability), while the other deals with regional economic growth, taking into account, the restrictions put on natural resources use (Sustainability Reforms). The recent (2011) and forecasted (2030) groundwater pollution hazard is evaluated based on hydrogeological parameters and, the impact of land-use changes in the groundwater system, coupling together a land-use change model (Dyna-CLUE) with a groundwater flow model (MODFLOW), as inputs to a decision system support (EMDS). The Dulce Stream Watershed (Pampa Plain, Argentina) was chosen to test the usefulness and utility of this proposed method. It includes a high level of agricultural activities, significant local extraction of groundwater resources for drinking water and irrigation and extensive available data regarding aquifer features. The Relegated Sustainability Scenario showed a negative change in the aquifer system, increasing (+ 20%; high–very high classes) the contribution to groundwater pollution hazard throughout the watershed. On the other hand, the Sustainability Reforms Scenario displayed more balanced land-use changes with a trend towards sustainability, therefore proposing a more acceptable change in the aquifer system for 2030 with a possible 2% increase (high–very high classes) in groundwater pollution hazard. Results in the recent scenario (2011) showed that 54% of Dulce Stream Watershed still shows a moderate to a very low contribution to groundwater pollution hazard (mainly in the lower area). Therefore, from the point of view of natural resource management, this is a positive aspect, offering possibilities for intervention in order to prevent deterioration and protect this aquifer system. However, since it is quite possible that this aquifer status

  20. PRESSCA: A regional operative Early Warning System for landslides risk scenario assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ponziani, Francesco; Stelluti, Marco; Berni, Nicola; Brocca, Luca; Moramarco, Tommaso

    2013-04-01

    The Italian national alert system for the hydraulic and hydrogeological risk is ensured by the National Civil Protection Department, through the "Functional Centres" Network, together with scientific/technical Support Centres, named "Competence Centres". The role of the Functional Centres is to alert regional/national civil protection network, to manage the prediction and the monitoring phases, thus ensuring the flow of data for the management of the emergency. The Umbria regional alerting procedure is based on three increasing warning levels of criticality for 6 sub-areas (~1200 km²). Specifically, for each duration (from 1 to 48 hours), three criticality levels are assigned to the rainfall values corresponding to a recurrence interval of 2, 5, and 10 years. In order to improve confidence on the daily work for hydrogeological risk assessment and management, a simple and operational early warning system for the prediction of shallow landslide triggering on regional scale was implemented. The system is primarily based on rainfall thresholds, which represent the main element of evaluation for the early-warning procedures of the Italian Civil Protection system. Following previous studies highlighting that soil moisture conditions play a key role on landslide triggering, a continuous physically-based soil water balance model was implemented for the estimation of soil moisture conditions over the whole regional territory. In fact, a decreasing trend between the cumulated rainfall values over 24, 36 and 48 hours and the soil moisture conditions prior to past landslide events was observed. This trend provides an easy-to-use tool to dynamically adjust the operational rainfall thresholds with the soil moisture conditions simulated by the soil water balance model prior to rainfall events. The application of this procedure allowed decreasing the uncertainties tied to the application of the rainfall thresholds only. The system is actually operational in real-time and it was

  1. Actuarial assessment of future loss scenarios in the German insurance sector

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kubik, A.; Boehm, U.; Born, K.; Broecker, U.; Buechner, M.; Burghoff, O.; Donat, M.; Gerstengarbe, F. W.; Hattermann, F. F.; Held, H.; Kuecken, M.; Leckebusch, G. C.; Ludwig, P.; Nocke, T.; Oesterle, H.; Pardowitz, T.; Pinto, J. G.; Prahl, B. F.; Ulbrich, U.; Werner, P. C.

    2012-04-01

    The German Insurance Association (GDV) analyzed the impacts of climate change for the German insurance market. The work was conducted in cooperation with Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Freie Universität Berlin and University of Cologne. Different approaches and data sets were used to analyze the impacts of winter storm, hail and floods. High-resolution loss records to residential buildings in Germany were provided. These daily records are available on a fine spatial level of administrative districts from 1997-2007. For the period of 1984-2008 daily losses to residential buildings were derived from motor vehicle own damage insurance, which shows a surprisingly high correlation between building losses and motor vehicle losses caused by natural hazards. Loss functions from GDVs own flood risk model were made available to estimate flood losses. As climate change will progress the mean annual losses in the private residential building insurance might increase. Until 2100 losses due to winter storm could rise by more than 50%. The increase is mainly attributable to the intensification of individual exceptionally severe storms. Climate change will also result in an increase of flood losses. By the end of the century mean losses are expected to be twice as high - depending on the given scenario they could remain constant or triple. Conversely extreme events with high cumulative losses are expected to become significantly more frequent. Storms with a today's return period of 50 years might occur every 10 years at the end of the century. Floods, now returning every 50 years, could arise every 25 years. For the first time hailstorms have been analyzed. It was noticed, that in particular East Germany might be hit more frequently. Despite these findings, i.e. the cost of insurance against natural hazards might increase, the extent of such an increase in Germany should still remain within limits that can be mastered by the insurance companies. But we have to

  2. Safety assessment on the human intrusion scenarios of near surface disposal facility for low and very low level radioactive waste

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hong, Sung Wook; Park, Jin Baek [Korea Radioactive Waste Agency, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Park, Sang Ho [Chungnam National University, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-03-15

    The second-stage near surface disposal facility for low and very low level radioactive waste's permanent disposal is to be built. During the institutional control period, the inadvertent intrusion of the general public is limited. But after the institutional control period, the access to the general public is not restricted. Therefore human who has purpose of residence and resource exploration can intrude the disposal facility. In this case, radioactive effects to the intruder should be limited within regulatory dose limits. This study conducted the safety assessment of human intrusion on the second-stage surface disposal facility through drilling and post drilling scenario. Results of drilling and post drilling scenario were satisfied with regulatory dose limits. The result showed that post-drilling scenario was more significant than drilling scenario. According to the human intrusion time and behavior after the closure of the facility, dominant radionuclide contributing to the intruder was different. Sensitivity analyses on the parameters about the human behavior were also satisfied with regulatory dose limits. Especially, manual redistribution factor was the most sensitive parameter on exposure dose. A loading plan of spent filter waste and dry active waste was more effective than a loading plan of spent filter waste and other wastes for the radiological point of view. These results can be expected to provide both robustness and defense in depth for the development of safety case further.

  3. Biodiversity losses and conservation trade-offs: Assessing future urban growth scenarios for a North American trade corridor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villarreal, Miguel; Norman, Laura M.; Wallace, Cynthia S.A.; Boykin, Kenneth

    2013-01-01

    The Sonoran Desert and Apache Highlands ecoregions of North America are areas of exceptionally high plant and vertebrate biodiversity. However, much of the vertebrate biodiversity is supported by only a few vegetation types with limited distributions, some of which are increasingly threatened by changing land uses. We assessed the impacts of two future urban growth scenarios on biodiversity in a binational watershed in Arizona, USA and Sonora, Mexico. We quantified and mapped terrestrial vertebrate species richness using Wildlife Habitat Relation models and validated the results with data from National Park Service biological inventories. Future urban growth, based on historical trends, was projected to the year 2050 for 1) a “Current Trends” scenario and, 2) a “Megalopolis” scenario that represented a transnational growth corridor with open-space conservation attributes. Based on Current Trends, 45% of existing riparian woodland (267 of 451species), and 34% of semi-desert grasslands (215 of 451 species) will be lost, whereas, in the Megalopolis scenario, these types would decline by 44% and 24% respectively. Outcomes of the two models suggest a trade-off at the taxonomic class level: Current Trends would reduce and fragment mammal and herpetofauna habitat, while Megalopolis would result in loss of avian-rich riparian habitat.

  4. ICUD-0530 Scenario based risk assessment of the dispersion of E-coli from combined sewer overflow to a fresh-water lake

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Michael Robdrup; Thorndahl, Søren Liedtke; Nielsen, Jesper Ellerbæk

    2017-01-01

    A scenario based risk assessment method is used to evaluate how combined sewer overflow (CSO) affects a nearby bathing beach in Skanderborg, Denmark. The method combines an urban drainage model with a 3D CFD model to pre-simulate 60 different scenarios, used for assessing the risk of poor bathing...

  5. Scenario-based resilience assessment framework for critical infrastructure systems: Case study for seismic resilience of seaports

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shafieezadeh, Abdollah; Ivey Burden, Lindsay

    2014-01-01

    A number of metrics in the past have been proposed and numerically implemented to assess the overall performance of large systems during natural disasters and their recovery in the aftermath of the events. Among such performance measures, resilience is a reliable metric. This paper proposes a probabilistic framework for scenario-based resilience assessment of infrastructure systems. The method accounts for uncertainties in the process including the correlation of the earthquake intensity measures, fragility assessment of structural components, estimation of repair requirements, the repair process, and finally the service demands. The proposed method is applied to a hypothetical seaport terminal and the system level performance of the seaport is assessed using various performance metrics. Results of this analysis have shown that medium to large seismic events may significantly disrupt the operation of seaports right after the event and the recovery process may take months. The proposed framework will enable port stakeholders to systematically assess the most-likely performance of the system during expected future earthquake events. - Highlights: • A scenario-based framework for seismic resilience assessment of systems is presented. • Seismic resilience of a hypothetical seaport with realistic settings is studied. • Berth availability is found to govern seaport functionality following earthquakes

  6. Using Cognitive Referents in Making Sense of Teaching: A Chemistry Teacher's Struggle to Change Assessment Practices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Briscoe, Carol

    1993-01-01

    Study suggests that cognitive referents are important influences in how a teacher thinks about assessment and may constrain a teacher's implementation of innovative practices. Identification of referents such as myths, their associated beliefs, and metonymic conceptual models that teachers use to make sense of their actions is an important step in…

  7. A discussion on assessing climate-related hazards and uncertainties considering scenarios of climate-change: Examples and applications to some African areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia-Aristizabal, Alexander; Bucchignani, Edoardo; Marzocchi, Warner; Uhinga, Guido

    2013-04-01

    Extreme meteorological phenomena such as heavy precipitation, extreme temperature, or strong winds, may have considerable impacts on the economy, infrastructure, health, as well as may represent a non-negligible threat for human life. A changing climate may lead to changes in the frequency, intensity, spatial extent, duration, and timing of weather and climate extremes, and can result in unprecedented extreme events. Climatological parameters, that are reference variables for the assessment of climate-related hazards, can be generally obtained from data catalogues; nevertheless, it is often the case that the time window of the observations, if available at all, is too short for a correct analysis of the most extreme and less frequent events. For this reason there is a growing interest on the use of 'synthetic' data derived from climatological models which in addition, allow the possibility to perform climate projections considering different plausible emission/concentration scenarios in the modelling. Within this context, the scenario-based climate projections can be useful to assess possible temporal variations on climatological parameters (and hence in climate-related hazards) under climate change conditions. Here we discuss the characterization of some climate-related hazards based on the analysis of climatological parameters, debating relevant issues in the use of both observed and synthetic data, the consideration of climate-change scenarios, and the quantification and communication of uncertainties. In particular, to account for possible non-stationary conditions in the analysis of extremes under climate-change conditions, we have adopted a practical covariate approach recently used in different hydrological and meteorological applications, and used a Bayesian framework for the parameter estimation and uncertainty propagation.

  8. Synthesized view comparison method for no-reference 3D image quality assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Fangzhou; Lin, Chaoyi; Gu, Xiaodong; Ma, Xiaojun

    2018-04-01

    We develop a no-reference image quality assessment metric to evaluate the quality of synthesized view rendered from the Multi-view Video plus Depth (MVD) format. Our metric is named Synthesized View Comparison (SVC), which is designed for real-time quality monitoring at the receiver side in a 3D-TV system. The metric utilizes the virtual views in the middle which are warped from left and right views by Depth-image-based rendering algorithm (DIBR), and compares the difference between the virtual views rendered from different cameras by Structural SIMilarity (SSIM), a popular 2D full-reference image quality assessment metric. The experimental results indicate that our no-reference quality assessment metric for the synthesized images has competitive prediction performance compared with some classic full-reference image quality assessment metrics.

  9. A method for assessing carbon stocks, carbon sequestration, and greenhouse-gas fluxes in ecosystems of the United States under present conditions and future scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bergamaschi, Brian A.; Bernknopf, Richard; Clow, David; Dye, Dennis; Faulkner, Stephen; Forney, William; Gleason, Robert; Hawbaker, Todd; Liu, Jinxun; Liu, Shu-Guang; Prisley, Stephen; Reed, Bradley; Reeves, Matthew; Rollins, Matthew; Sleeter, Benjamin; Sohl, Terry; Stackpoole, Sarah; Stehman, Stephen; Striegl, Robert G.; Wein, Anne; Zhu, Zhi-Liang; Zhu, Zhi-Liang

    2010-01-01

    he Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA), Section 712, mandates the U.S. Department of the Interior to develop a methodology and conduct an assessment of the Nation’s ecosystems, focusing on carbon stocks, carbon sequestration, and emissions of three greenhouse gases (GHGs): carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide. The major requirements include (1) an assessment of all ecosystems (terrestrial systems, such as forests, croplands, wetlands, grasslands/shrublands; and aquatic ecosystems, such as rivers, lakes, and estuaries); (2) an estimate of the annual potential capacities of ecosystems to increase carbon sequestration and reduce net GHG emissions in the context of mitigation strategies (including management and restoration activities); and (3) an evaluation of the effects of controlling processes, such as climate change, land-use and land-cover change, and disturbances such as wildfires.The concepts of ecosystems, carbon pools, and GHG fluxes follow conventional definitions in use by major national and international assessment or inventory efforts. In order to estimate current ecosystem carbon stocks and GHG fluxes and to understand the potential capacity and effects of mitigation strategies, the method will use two time periods for the assessment: 2001 through 2010, which establishes a current ecosystem carbon and GHG baseline and will be used to validate the models; and 2011 through 2050, which will be used to assess potential capacities based on a set of scenarios. The scenario framework will be constructed using storylines of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES), along with both reference and enhanced land-use and land-cover (LULC) and land-management parameters. Additional LULC and land-management mitigation scenarios will be constructed for each storyline to increase carbon sequestration and reduce GHG fluxes in ecosystems. Input from regional experts and stakeholders will be

  10. Grassland futures in Great Britain - Productivity assessment and scenarios for land use change opportunities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qi, Aiming; Holland, Robert A; Taylor, Gail; Richter, Goetz M

    2018-09-01

    To optimise trade-offs provided by future changes in grassland use intensity, spatially and temporally explicit estimates of respective grassland productivities are required at the systems level. Here, we benchmark the potential national availability of grassland biomass, identify optimal strategies for its management, and investigate the relative importance of intensification over reversion (prioritising productivity versus environmental ecosystem services). Process-conservative meta-models for different grasslands were used to calculate the baseline dry matter yields (DMY; 1961-1990) at 1km 2 resolution for the whole UK. The effects of climate change, rising atmospheric [CO 2 ] and technological progress on baseline DMYs were used to estimate future grassland productivities (up to 2050) for low and medium CO 2 emission scenarios of UKCP09. UK benchmark productivities of 12.5, 8.7 and 2.8t/ha on temporary, permanent and rough-grazing grassland, respectively, accounted for productivity gains by 2010. By 2050, productivities under medium emission scenario are predicted to increase to 15.5 and 9.8t/ha on temporary and permanent grassland, respectively, but not on rough grassland. Based on surveyed grassland distributions for Great Britain in 2010 the annual availability of grassland biomass is likely to rise from 64 to 72milliontonnes by 2050. Assuming optimal N application could close existing productivity gaps of ca. 40% a range of management options could deliver additional 21∗10 6 tonnes of biomass available for bioenergy. Scenarios of changes in grassland use intensity demonstrated considerable scope for maintaining or further increasing grassland production and sparing some grassland for the provision of environmental ecosystem services. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. Assessment of future agricultural conditions in southwestern Africa using fuzzy logic and high-resolution climate model scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Weinzierl, Thomas

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is expected to have a major impact on the arid savanna regions of southwestern Africa, such as the Okavango Basin. Precipitation is a major constraint for agriculture in countries like Namibia and Botswana and assessments of future crop growth conditions are in high demand. This GIS-based approach uses reanalysis data and climate model output for two scenarios and compares them to the precipitation requirements of the five most important crops grown in the region: maize, pearl millet, sorghum, cassava and cow pea. It also takes into account the dominant soil types, as plant growth is also limited by nutrient-poor soils with unfavorable physical and chemical properties. The two factors are then combined using a fuzzy logic algorithm. The assessment visualizes the expected shifts in suitable zones and identifies areas where farming without irrigation may experience a decline in yields or may even no longer be possible at the end of the 21st century. The results show that pearl millet is the most suitable crop in all scenarios while especially the cultivation of maize, sorghum and cow pea may be affected by a possible reduction of precipitation under the high-emission scenario.

  12. Vulnerabilities to agricultural production shocks: An extreme, plausible scenario for assessment of risk for the insurance sector

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tobias Lunt

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate risks pose a threat to the function of the global food system and therefore also a hazard to the global financial sector, the stability of governments, and the food security and health of the world’s population. This paper presents a method to assess plausible impacts of an agricultural production shock and potential materiality for global insurers. A hypothetical, near-term, plausible, extreme scenario was developed based upon modules of historical agricultural production shocks, linked under a warm phase El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO meteorological framework. The scenario included teleconnected floods and droughts in disparate agricultural production regions around the world, as well as plausible, extreme biotic shocks. In this scenario, global crop yield declines of 10% for maize, 11% for soy, 7% for wheat and 7% for rice result in quadrupled commodity prices and commodity stock fluctuations, civil unrest, significant negative humanitarian consequences and major financial losses worldwide. This work illustrates a need for the scientific community to partner across sectors and industries towards better-integrated global data, modeling and analytical capacities, to better respond to and prepare for concurrent agricultural failure. Governments, humanitarian organizations and the private sector collectively may recognize significant benefits from more systematic assessment of exposure to agricultural climate risk.

  13. Assessing the environmental costs and benefits of plantations under future carbon pricing scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson, R. B.; Barrett, D. J.; Farley, K.; Guenther, A.; Jobbágy, E. G.; Murray, B. C.; McCarl, B. A.; Schlesinger, W. H.

    2004-12-01

    Carbon sequestration programs are gaining attention globally as a means to offset increasing fossil fuel emissions and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. We are examining scenarios of C sequestration in four regions of the world: the U.S., South America, China, and Australia. The analysis uses economic models to predict where the plantations will be grown and then categorizes the other biogeochemical changes that will likely occur. The goals of the project include: 1) Evaluating the assumptions behind C sequestration programs for plantations, including the importance of rotation rates, a full accounting of carbon costs (e.g., planting and site preparation), and how the C would be stored and safeguarded. 2) Examining the scale of the process needed to make a substantial contribution to offset fossil fuel emissions (see below). The scenario we have chosen to evaluate is one that addresses the consequences of storing 1 PgC yr-1 for 50 years. 3) Determining and summarizing the evidence for other biogeochemical changes that will likely occur. Some of the factors to be evaluated include soil acidification, changes in water fluxes and water-table dynamics, nutrient losses, changes in soil fauna and biodiversity, volatile organic carbon emissions, and erosion. 4) A final goal of the project is to make concrete recommendations for where plantations may be the most beneficial in terms of C storage and other environmental benefits, such as the amelioration of salinity and groundwater upwelling in Australia.

  14. Modeling potential scenarios of the Tangjiashan Lake outburst and risk assessment in the downstream valley

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kidyaeva, Vera; Chernomorets, Sergey; Krylenko, Inna; Wei, Fangqiang; Petrakov, Dmitry; Su, Pengcheng; Yang, Hongjuan; Xiong, Junnan

    2017-09-01

    This research is devoted to Tangjiashan Lake, a quake landslide-dammed lake, situated in Sichuan Province, China, which was formed by a landslide triggered by the Wenchuan Earthquake on 12 May 2008. A STREAM_2D two-dimensional hydrodynamic model of Russia was applied to simulate the process of two flood scenarios: 1, lake dam outbreak, and 2, dam overtopping. An artificial dam outbreak was made after the earthquake to lower the water level of the lake in 2008, which led to a great flood with a maximum water discharge of more than 6400 m3/s. The negative impact of the flood was reduced by a timely evacuation of the population. Flood hazards still remain in the event of new landslides into the lake and lake dam overtopping (Scenario 2), in which case a maximum water discharge at the dam crest would reach 5000 m3/s, placing the population of Shabacun and Shilingzi villages in the zone of flood impact.

  15. Scenario comparisons of gasification technology using energy life cycle assessment for bioenergy recovery from rice straw in Taiwan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shie, J.L.; Lee, C.H.; Chen, C.S.; Lin, K.L.; Chang, C.Y.

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • The energy balances of potential gasification technology and limitation boundary are evaluated. • The transportation and pre-treatment are the greatest parts of energy use. • Every technology process has positive energy benefits at all on-site pre-treatment cases. • The optimal ranges of transportation distance and treatment capacity are suggested. • The optimal technology from the tendency model is addressed. - Abstract: This study uses different scenarios to evaluate, by means of energy life-cycle assessments (ELCAs), the energy balance of potential gasification technology and limitation boundaries in Taiwan. Rice straw is chosen as the target material in this study because it is the most significant agriculture waste in Taiwan. Energy products include syngas (CO + H 2 ), methane, carbon dioxide and carbon black residue. The scenarios simulate capacities of 50,000–200,000 tons/year. The distances of collection and transportation are calculated by a circular area 50–100 km in diameter. Also, the on-site and off-site pretreatments of rice straw are evaluated. For this optimum scenario case, the average of the total input energy for the assessed systems is about 15.9% of the average output energy; the value of the net energy balance (NEB) is 0.841. Every technological process has positive energy benefits at all on-site scenario cases. As the capacity is increased, the energy consumption required for transportation increases and the values of the energy indicators decrease. According to the limitation boundaries from the tendency model at on-site cases, the suggested transportation distance and treatment capacity are below 114.72 km and 251,533 tons/year, respectively, while the energy return on investment (EROI) value is greater than 1

  16. Intravascular ultrasound assessment of remodelling and reference segment plaque burden in type-2 diabetic patients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Lisette Okkels; Thayssen, Per; Mintz, Gary S

    2007-01-01

    AIMS: Intravascular ultrasound (IVUS) assesses arterial remodelling by comparing the lesion external elastic membrane (EEM) with the reference segments; however, reference segments are rarely disease-free. The aim was to assess lesion and reference segment remodelling and plaque burden in patients...... with type-2 diabetes mellitus. METHODS AND RESULTS: We used pre-intervention IVUS to study 62 de novo lesions in 43 patients with type-2 diabetes mellitus. The lesion site was the image slice with the smallest lumen cross-sectional area (CSA). The proximal and distal reference segments were the most normal...... size [slope = -0.12 (95% CI -0.17 to -0.07); P type-2 diabetes mellitus. CONCLUSION: Lesions in type-2 diabetic patients are different from previous reports in non-diabetics. Lesions in type-2 diabetics are characterized by a large reference segment plaque burden...

  17. Assessing Land Use-Cover Changes and Modelling Change Scenarios in Two Mountain Spanish National Parks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Javier Martínez-Vega

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Land Use-Cover Changes (LUCCs are one of the main problems for the preservation of biodiversity. Protected Areas (PAs do not escape this threat. Some processes, such as intensive recreational use, forest fires or the expansion of artificial areas taking place inside and around them in response to their appeal, question their environmental sustainability and their efficiency. In this paper, we analyze the LUCCs that took place between 1990 and 2006 in two National Parks (NPs belonging to the Spanish network and in their surroundings: Ordesa and Monte Perdido (Ordesa NP and Sierra de Guadarrama (Guadarrama NP. We also simulate land use changes between 2006 and 2030 by means of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs, taking into account two scenarios: trend and green. Finally, we perform a multi-temporal analysis of natural habitat fragmentation in each NP. The results show that the NPs analyzed are well-preserved and have seen hardly any significant LUCCs inside them. However, Socioeconomic Influence Zones (SIZs and buffers are subject to different dynamics. In the SIZ and buffer of the Ordesa NP, there has been an expansion of built-up areas (annual rate of change = +1.19 around small urban hubs and ski resorts. There has also been a gradual recovery of natural areas, which had been interrupted by forest fires. The invasion of sub-alpine grasslands by shrubs is clear (+2735 ha. The SIZ and buffer of the Guadarrama NP are subject to urban sprawl in forest areas and to the construction of road infrastructures (+5549 ha and an annual rate of change = +1.20. Industrial area has multiplied by 3.3 in 20 years. The consequences are an increase in the Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI, greater risk of forest fires and greater fragmentation of natural habitats (+0.04 in SIZ. In the change scenarios, if conditions change as expected, the specific threats facing each NP can be expected to increase. There are substantial differences between the scenarios depending on

  18. Worst-Case Scenario Tsunami Hazard Assessment in Two Historically and Economically Important Districts in Eastern Sicily (Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armigliato, A.; Tinti, S.; Pagnoni, G.; Zaniboni, F.; Paparo, M. A.

    2015-12-01

    The portion of the eastern Sicily coastline (southern Italy), ranging from the southern part of the Catania Gulf (to the north) down to the southern-eastern end of the island, represents a very important geographical domain from the industrial, commercial, military, historical and cultural points of view. Here the two major cities of Augusta and Siracusa are found. In particular, the Augusta bay hosts one of the largest petrochemical poles in the Mediterranean, and Siracusa is listed among the UNESCO World Heritage Sites since 2005. This area was hit by at least seven tsunamis in the approximate time interval from 1600 BC to present, the most famous being the 365, 1169, 1693 and 1908 tsunamis. The choice of this area as one of the sites for the testing of innovative methods for tsunami hazard, vulnerability and risk assessment and reduction is then fully justified. This is being developed in the frame of the EU Project called ASTARTE - Assessment, STrategy And Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe (Grant 603839, 7th FP, ENV.2013.6.4-3). We assess the tsunami hazard for the Augusta-Siracusa area through the worst-case credible scenario technique, which can be schematically divided into the following steps: 1) Selection of five main source areas, both in the near- and in the far-field (Hyblaean-Malta escarpment, Messina Straits, Ionian subduction zone, Calabria offshore, western Hellenic Trench); 2) Choice of potential and credible tsunamigenic faults in each area: 38 faults were selected, with properly assigned magnitude, geometry and focal mechanism; 3) Computation of the maximum tsunami wave elevations along the eastern Sicily coast on a coarse grid (by means of the in-house code UBO-TSUFD) and extraction of the 9 scenarios that produce the largest effects in the target areas of Augusta and Siracusa; 4) For each of the 9 scenarios we run numerical UBO-TSUFD simulations over a set of five nested grids, with grid cells size decreasing from 3 km in the open Ionian

  19. Contrasting safety assessments of a runway incursion scenario: Event sequence analysis versus multi-agent dynamic risk modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stroeve, Sybert H.; Blom, Henk A.P.; Bakker, G.J.

    2013-01-01

    In the safety literature it has been argued, that in a complex socio-technical system safety cannot be well analysed by event sequence based approaches, but requires to capture the complex interactions and performance variability of the socio-technical system. In order to evaluate the quantitative and practical consequences of these arguments, this study compares two approaches to assess accident risk of an example safety critical sociotechnical system. It contrasts an event sequence based assessment with a multi-agent dynamic risk model (MA-DRM) based assessment, both of which are performed for a particular runway incursion scenario. The event sequence analysis uses the well-known event tree modelling formalism and the MA-DRM based approach combines agent based modelling, hybrid Petri nets and rare event Monte Carlo simulation. The comparison addresses qualitative and quantitative differences in the methods, attained risk levels, and in the prime factors influencing the safety of the operation. The assessments show considerable differences in the accident risk implications of the performance of human operators and technical systems in the runway incursion scenario. In contrast with the event sequence based results, the MA-DRM based results show that the accident risk is not manifest from the performance of and relations between individual human operators and technical systems. Instead, the safety risk emerges from the totality of the performance and interactions in the agent based model of the safety critical operation considered, which coincides very well with the argumentation in the safety literature.

  20. Bridging information requirements and information needs assessment: do scenarios and vignettes provide a link?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christine Urquhart

    2001-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the paper is to compare the philosophies of the vignette and critical incident techniques in information behaviour research, with the methodologies used in object oriented analysis such as use case scenarios and CRC (class, responsibility, collaboration cards. The principles of object oriented analysis are outlined, noting the emphasis on obtaining the "storyline" or "scripts" for information requirements analysis through use cases and CRC cards.  The critical incident technique and vignettes are used to obtain valid interpretations of users" information behaviour, using a storyline approach for data collection (and analysis which is similar to that of object oriented analysis. Some examples illustrate how techniques developed in object oriented analysis could be used for data display in information behaviour studies. Concludes that the methods developed by software engineering could be adapted usefully for information behaviour research.

  1. Quantitative assessment of consequences of natural events for the performance of waste disposal isolation system. On consequences of natural events in groundwater scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ohkubo, Hiroo

    1999-02-01

    This year, first, on seismicity and faulting, uplift and erosion, climate change and human activity (intrusion) scenarios, while effects of those scenarios were primarily evaluated in reference cases last year, variant cases with another kind of patterns of models and parameters compared to reference cases, have been studied and set, and their effects have been analyzed and evaluated. Secondly, referring to the results of the above discussions, a preliminary study was made to evaluate the complex effect caused by combining natural events such as volcanism, seismicity and faulting, uplift and erosion and climate change, where discussions have been made on which combined scenario was more important and how to set the analysis framework. (author)

  2. Assessment of the Future Health Burden Attributable to Undernutrition under the Latest Scenario Framework for Climate Change Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ishida, Hiroyuki; Kobayashi, Shota; Yoshikawa, Sayaka; Kanae, Shinjiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Shin, Yonghee; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Masui, Toshihiko; Tanaka, Akemi; Honda, Yasushi

    2014-05-01

    There are growing concerns that future food security will be negatively affected by various factors, such as changes in socioeconomic and climate conditions. The health burden attributable to childhood undernutrition is among the most severe problems related to food crisis in the world. This study assessed the health burden attributable to childhood underweight through 2050 focusing on disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), by considering the latest scenarios for climate change studies (Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)) and conducting sensitivity analysis. We used three SSPs (SSP1, SSP2 and SSP3) as future population and gross domestic products (GDP), three RCPs (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for a greenhouse gas emissions constraint, and 12 Global Circulation Models (12 GCMs) to estimate climate conditions. A regression model for estimating DALYs attributable to childhood underweight (DAtU) was developed using the relationship between DAtU and childhood stunting. A logarithmic relationship was proposed for the regression model. We combined a global computable general equilibrium model, a crop model (M-GAEZ), and two regression models to assess the future health burden. We found that i) world total DAtU decreases from 2005 by 23 ~ 60% in 2030 depending on the socioeconomic scenarios. DAtU decreases further by 2050 for SSP1 and SSP2 scenario, whereas it slightly increases for SSP3. Per capita DAtU also decreases in all regions under either scenario in 2050, but the decreases vary significantly by regions and scenarios. ii) the impact of climate change is relatively small in the framework of this study but, on the other hand, socioeconomic conditions have a great impact on the future health burden. The impact of changes in socioeconomic conditions on the health burden is greater in the regions where current health burden is high. iii) parameter uncertainty of the regression models is the second largest factor on

  3. Environmental implications of United States coal exports: a comparative life cycle assessment of future power system scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bohnengel, Barrett; Patiño-Echeverri, Dalia; Bergerson, Joule

    2014-08-19

    Stricter emissions requirements on coal-fired power plants together with low natural gas prices have contributed to a recent decline in the use of coal for electricity generation in the United States. Faced with a shrinking domestic market, many coal companies are taking advantage of a growing coal export market. As a result, U.S. coal exports hit an all-time high in 2012, fueled largely by demand in Asia. This paper presents a comparative life cycle assessment of two scenarios: a baseline scenario in which coal continues to be burned domestically for power generation, and an export scenario in which coal is exported to Asia. For the coal export scenario we focus on the Morrow Pacific export project being planned in Oregon by Ambre Energy that would ship 8.8 million tons of Powder River Basin (PRB) coal annually to Asian markets via rail, river barge, and ocean vessel. Air emissions (SOx, NOx, PM10 and CO2e) results assuming that the exported coal is burned for electricity generation in South Korea are compared to those of a business as usual case in which Oregon and Washington's coal plants, Boardman and Centralia, are retrofitted to comply with EPA emissions standards and continue their coal consumption. Findings show that although the environmental impacts of shipping PRB coal to Asia are significant, the combination of superior energy efficiency among newer South Korean coal-fired power plants and lower emissions from U.S. replacement of coal with natural gas could lead to a greenhouse gas reduction of 21% in the case that imported PRB coal replaces other coal sources in this Asian country. If instead PRB coal were to replace natural gas or nuclear generation in South Korea, greenhouse gas emissions per unit of electricity generated would increase. Results are similar for other air emissions such as SOx, NOx and PM. This study provides a framework for comparing energy export scenarios and highlights the importance of complete life cycle assessment in

  4. A Qualitative Assessment Of Diversion Scenarios For A Example Sodium Fast Reactor Using The Gen IV PR And PP Methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zentner, Michael D.

    2008-01-01

    A working group was created in 2002 by the Generation IV International Forum (GIF) for the purpose of developing an internationally accepted methodology for assessing the Proliferation Resistance of a nuclear energy system (NES) and its individual elements. A two year case study is being performed by the experts group using this methodology to assess the proliferation resistance of a hypothetical NES called the Example Sodium Fast Reactor (ESFR). This work demonstrates how the PR and PP methodology can be used to provide important information at various levels of details to NES designers, safeguard administrators and decision makers. The study analyzes the response of the complete ESFR nuclear energy system to different proliferation and theft strategies. The challenges considered include concealed diversion, concealed misuse and 'break out' strategies. This paper describes the work done in performing a qualitative assessment of concealed diversion scenarios from the ESFR.

  5. A Qualitative Assessment of Diversion Scenarios for an Example Sodium Fast Reactor Using the GEN IV PR and PP Methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zentner, Michael D.; Coles, Garill A.; Therios, Ike

    2012-01-01

    FAST REACTORS;NUCLEAR ENERGY;NUCLEAR MATERIALS MANAGEMENT;PROLIFERATION;SAFEGUARDS;THEFT; A working group was created in 2002 by the Generation IV International Forum (GIF) for the purpose of developing an internationally accepted methodology for assessing the Proliferation Resistance of a nuclear energy system (NES) and its individual elements. A two year case study is being performed by the experts group using this methodology to assess the proliferation resistance of a hypothetical NES called the Example Sodium Fast Reactor (ESFR). This work demonstrates how the PR and PP methodology can be used to provide important information at various levels of details to NES designers, safeguard administrators and decision makers. The study analyzes the response of the complete ESFR nuclear energy system to different proliferation and theft strategies. The challenges considered include concealed diversion, concealed misuse and 'break out' strategies. This paper describes the work done in performing a qualitative assessment of concealed diversion scenarios from the ESFR.

  6. Proposals for enhanced health risk assessment and stratification in an integrated care scenario

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Duenas-Espin, Ivan; Vela, Emili; Pauws, Steffen; Bescos, Cristina; Cano, Isaac; Cleries, Montserrat; Carles Contel, Joan; de Manuel Keenoy, Esteban; Garcia-Aymerich, Judith; Gomez-Cabrero, David; Kaye, Rachelle; Lahr, Maarten M. H.; Lluch-Ariet, Magi; Moharra, Montserrat; Monterde, David; Mora, Joana; Nalin, Marco; Pavlickova, Andrea; Piera, Jordi; Ponce, Sara; Santaeugenia, Sebastia; Schonenberg, Helen; Stoerk, Stefan; Tegner, Jesper; Velickovski, Filip; Westerteicher, Christoph; Roca, Josep

    2016-01-01

    Objectives: Population-based health risk assessment and stratification are considered highly relevant for large-scale implementation of integrated care by facilitating services design and case identification. The principal objective of the study was to analyse five health-risk assessment strategies

  7. Proposals for enhanced health risk assessment and stratification in an integrated care scenario

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dueñas-Espín, Ivan; Vela, Emili; Pauws, Steffen; Bescos, Cristina; Cano, Isaac; Cleries, Montserrat; Contel, Joan Carles; de Manuel Keenoy, Esteban; Garcia-Aymerich, Judith; Gomez-Cabrero, David; Kaye, Rachelle; Lahr, Maarten M H; Lluch-Ariet, Magí; Moharra, Montserrat; Monterde, David; Mora, Joana; Nalin, Marco; Pavlickova, Andrea; Piera, Jordi; Ponce, Sara; Santaeugenia, Sebastià; Schonenberg, Helen; Störk, Stefan; Tegner, Jesper; Velickovski, Filip; Westerteicher, Christoph; Roca, Josep

    2016-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: Population-based health risk assessment and stratification are considered highly relevant for large-scale implementation of integrated care by facilitating services design and case identification. The principal objective of the study was to analyse five health-risk assessment strategies

  8. Effect of endogenous reference genes on digital PCR assessment of genetically engineered canola events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tigst Demeke

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Droplet digital PCR (ddPCR has been used for absolute quantification of genetically engineered (GE events. Absolute quantification of GE events by duplex ddPCR requires the use of appropriate primers and probes for target and reference gene sequences in order to accurately determine the amount of GE materials. Single copy reference genes are generally preferred for absolute quantification of GE events by ddPCR. Study has not been conducted on a comparison of reference genes for absolute quantification of GE canola events by ddPCR. The suitability of four endogenous reference sequences (HMG-I/Y, FatA(A, CruA and Ccf for absolute quantification of GE canola events by ddPCR was investigated. The effect of DNA extraction methods and DNA quality on the assessment of reference gene copy numbers was also investigated. ddPCR results were affected by the use of single vs. two copy reference genes. The single copy, FatA(A, reference gene was found to be stable and suitable for absolute quantification of GE canola events by ddPCR. For the copy numbers measured, the HMG-I/Y reference gene was less consistent than FatA(A reference gene. The expected ddPCR values were underestimated when CruA and Ccf (two copy endogenous Cruciferin sequences were used because of high number of copies. It is important to make an adjustment if two copy reference genes are used for ddPCR in order to obtain accurate results. On the other hand, real-time quantitative PCR results were not affected by the use of single vs. two copy reference genes. Keywords: Canola, Digital PCR, DNA extraction, GMO, Reference genes

  9. SYSNET: A salt-site systems network model for scenario assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reeves, M.; Banda, R.S.

    1986-12-01

    This document contains a description of the initial version of the systems model SYSNET. This model is being developed to analyze potentially disruptive scenarios of salt repository systems. Currently the model features a general three-dimensional network topology and simulates the processes of flow, heat transport in rock, heat transport in fluid, brine transport, salt creep dissolution, and precipitation. Of necessity, the SYSNET Code uses relatively simple semi-analytic algorithms so that it may be implemented statistically. Uncertain parameters may be sampled with a compatible preprocessor and then analyzed statistically with a compatible postprocessor. When used in this fashion, SYSNET may be caused to calculate distributions of various performance measures and sensitivities of performance measures to uncertain parameters. The ultimate objective of the SYSNET development is to prioritize data needs by computing sensitivities relative to a particular performance measure, namely the 10,000-year cumulative release, and to evaluate repository systems for compliance with the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Standard. 16 refs., 25 figs., 31 tabs

  10. Serviceability Assessment for Cascading Failures in Water Distribution Network under Seismic Scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qing Shuang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The stability of water service is a hot point in industrial production, public safety, and academic research. The paper establishes a service evaluation model for the water distribution network (WDN. The serviceability is measured in three aspects: (1 the functionality of structural components under disaster environment; (2 the recognition of cascading failure process; and (3 the calculation of system reliability. The node and edge failures in WDN are interrelated under seismic excitations. The cascading failure process is provided with the balance of water supply and demand. The matrix-based system reliability (MSR method is used to represent the system events and calculate the nonfailure probability. An example is used to illustrate the proposed method. The cascading failure processes with different node failures are simulated. The serviceability is analyzed. The critical node can be identified. The result shows that the aged network has a greater influence on the system service under seismic scenario. The maintenance could improve the antidisaster ability of WDN. Priority should be given to controlling the time between the initial failure and the first secondary failure, for taking postdisaster emergency measures within this time period can largely cut down the spread of cascade effect in the whole WDN.

  11. Energy assessment of second generation (2G) ethanol production from wheat straw in Indian scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mishra, Archana; Kumar, Akash; Ghosh, Sanjoy

    2018-03-01

    Impact of second-generation ethanol (2G) use in transportation sector mainly depends upon energy efficiency of entire production process. The objective of present study was to determine energy efficiency of a potential lignocellulosic feedstock; wheat straw and its conversion into cellulosic ethanol in Indian scenario. Energy efficiency was determined by calculating Net energy ratio (NER), i.e. ratio of output energy obtained by ethanol and input energy used in ethanol production. Energy consumption and generation at each step is calculated briefly (11,837.35 MJ/ha during Indian dwarf irrigated variety of wheat crop production and 7.1148 MJ/kg straw during ethanol production stage). Total energy consumption is calculated as 8.2988 MJ/kg straw whereas energy generation from ethanol is 15.082 MJ/kg straw; resulting into NER > 1. Major portion of agricultural energy input is contributed by diesel and fertilisers whereas refining process of wheat straw feedstock to ethanol and by-products require mainly in the form of steam and electricity. On an average, 1671.8 kg water free ethanol, 930 kg lignin rich biomass (for combustion), and 561 kg C5-molasses (for fodder) per hectare are produced. Findings of this study, net energy ratio (1.81) and figure of merit (14.8028 MJ/nil kg carbon) proves wheat straw as highest energy efficient lignocellulosic feedstock for the country.

  12. Scenario-Based Assessment of User Needs for Point-of-Care Robots.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Hyeong Suk; Kim, Jeongeun

    2018-01-01

    This study aimed to derive specific user requirements and barriers in a real medical environment to define the essential elements and functions of two types of point-of-care (POC) robot: a telepresence robot as a tool for teleconsultation, and a bedside robot to provide emotional care for patients. An analysis of user requirements was conducted; user needs were gathered and identified, and detailed, realistic scenarios were created. The prototype robots were demonstrated in physical environments for envisioning and evaluation. In all, three nurses and three clinicians participated as evaluators to observe the demonstrations and evaluate the robot systems. The evaluators were given a brief explanation of each scene and the robots' functionality. Four major functions of the teleconsultation robot were defined and tested in the demonstration. In addition, four major functions of the bedside robot were evaluated. Among the desired functions for a teleconsultation robot, medical information delivery and communication had high priority. For a bedside robot, patient support, patient monitoring, and healthcare provider support were the desired functions. The evaluators reported that the teleconsultation robot can increase support from and access to specialists and resources. They mentioned that the bedside robot can improve the quality of hospital life. Problems identified in the demonstration were those of space conflict, communication errors, and safety issues. Incorporating this technology into healthcare services will enhance communication and teamwork skills across distances and thereby facilitate teamwork. However, repeated tests will be needed to evaluate and ensure improved performance.

  13. A metric space for Type Ia supernova spectra: a new method to assess explosion scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sasdelli, Michele; Hillebrandt, W.; Kromer, M.; Ishida, E. E. O.; Röpke, F. K.; Sim, S. A.; Pakmor, R.; Seitenzahl, I. R.; Fink, M.

    2017-04-01

    Over the past years, Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) have become a major tool to determine the expansion history of the Universe, and considerable attention has been given to, both, observations and models of these events. However, until now, their progenitors are not known. The observed diversity of light curves and spectra seems to point at different progenitor channels and explosion mechanisms. Here, we present a new way to compare model predictions with observations in a systematic way. Our method is based on the construction of a metric space for SN Ia spectra by means of linear principal component analysis, taking care of missing and/or noisy data, and making use of partial least-squares regression to find correlations between spectral properties and photometric data. We investigate realizations of the three major classes of explosion models that are presently discussed: delayed-detonation Chandrasekhar-mass explosions, sub-Chandrasekhar-mass detonations and double-degenerate mergers, and compare them with data. We show that in the principal component space, all scenarios have observed counterparts, supporting the idea that different progenitors are likely. However, all classes of models face problems in reproducing the observed correlations between spectral properties and light curves and colours. Possible reasons are briefly discussed.

  14. Women referred for occupational risk assessment in pregnancy have no increased risk of adverse obstetric outcomes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bidstrup, Signe Brøker; Kaerlev, Linda; Thulstrup, Ane Marie

    2015-01-01

    .72-1.17). CONCLUSION: The women who are referred for occupational risk assessment at two large occupational university departments are not at an increased risk of preterm birth or of delivering low birth weight children. This may reflect that reproductive hazards in Danish workplaces are limited and......INTRODUCTION: Our aim was to study the association between pregnant women's referral status for occupational risk assessment, and their risk of preterm delivery (... pregnant women referred to two Danish clinics of occupational medicine (Copenhagen and Aarhus) from 1984 to 2010 were compared with the referred women's 1,077 non-referred pregnancy outcomes and with the pregnancy outcomes of 345,467 gainfully employed women from the same geographical areas and time period...

  15. Women referred for occupational risk assessment in pregnancy have no increased risk of adverse obstetric outcomes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bidstrup, Signe Brøker; Kaerlev, Linda; Thulstrup, Ane Marie

    2015-01-01

    pregnant women referred to two Danish clinics of occupational medicine (Copenhagen and Aarhus) from 1984 to 2010 were compared with the referred women's 1,077 non-referred pregnancy outcomes and with the pregnancy outcomes of 345,467 gainfully employed women from the same geographical areas and time period.......72-1.17). CONCLUSION: The women who are referred for occupational risk assessment at two large occupational university departments are not at an increased risk of preterm birth or of delivering low birth weight children. This may reflect that reproductive hazards in Danish workplaces are limited and....../or that the occupational risk assessment and counselling of pregnant women are preventing these selected adverse pregnancy outcomes. FUNDING: The Research Unit at Department of Occupational and Environmental Medicine at Bispebjerg Hospital supported the study financially. TRIAL REGISTRATION: not relevant. The study...

  16. Validation of a scenario-based assessment of critical thinking using an externally validated tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buur, Jennifer L; Schmidt, Peggy; Smylie, Dean; Irizarry, Kris; Crocker, Carlos; Tyler, John; Barr, Margaret

    2012-01-01

    With medical education transitioning from knowledge-based curricula to competency-based curricula, critical thinking skills have emerged as a major competency. While there are validated external instruments for assessing critical thinking, many educators have created their own custom assessments of critical thinking. However, the face validity of these assessments has not been challenged. The purpose of this study was to compare results from a custom assessment of critical thinking with the results from a validated external instrument of critical thinking. Students from the College of Veterinary Medicine at Western University of Health Sciences were administered a custom assessment of critical thinking (ACT) examination and the externally validated instrument, California Critical Thinking Skills Test (CCTST), in the spring of 2011. Total scores and sub-scores from each exam were analyzed for significant correlations using Pearson correlation coefficients. Significant correlations between ACT Blooms 2 and deductive reasoning and total ACT score and deductive reasoning were demonstrated with correlation coefficients of 0.24 and 0.22, respectively. No other statistically significant correlations were found. The lack of significant correlation between the two examinations illustrates the need in medical education to externally validate internal custom assessments. Ultimately, the development and validation of custom assessments of non-knowledge-based competencies will produce higher quality medical professionals.

  17. An integrated assessment of energy-water nexus at the state level in the United States: Projections and analyses under different scenarios through 2095

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, L.; Patel, P. L.; Hejazi, M. I.; Kyle, P.; Davies, E. G.; Zhou, Y.; Clarke, L.; Edmonds, J.

    2013-12-01

    Water withdrawals for thermoelectric power plants account for approximately half of the total water use in the United States. With growing electricity demands in the future and limited water supplies in many water-scarce states in the U.S., grasping the trade-off between energy and water requires an integrated modeling approach that can capture the interactions among energy, water availability, climate, technology, and economic factors at various scales. In this study, the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), a technologically-detailed integrated model of the economy, energy, agriculture and land use, water, and climate systems, with 14 geopolitical regions that are further dissaggregated into up to 18 agro-ecological zones, was extended to model the electricity and water systems at the state level in the U.S. More specifically, GCAM was employed to estimate future state-level electricity generation and demands, and the associated water withdrawals and consumptions under a set of six scenarios with extensive levels of details on generation fuel portfolio, cooling technology mix, and water use intensities. The state-level estimates were compared against available inventories where good agreement was achieved on national and regional levels. We then explored the electric-sector water use up to 2095, focusing on implications from: 1) socioeconomics and growing demands, 2) the adoption of climate mitigation policy (e.g., RCP4.5 W/m2 vs. a reference scenario), 3) the transition of cooling systems, 4) constraints on electricity trading across states (full trading vs. limited trading), and 5) the adoption of water saving technologies. Overall, the fast retirement of once-through cooling, together with the gradual transition from fossil fuels dominant to a mixture of different fuels, accelerate the decline of water withdrawals and correspondingly compensate consumptive water use. Results reveal that U.S. electricity generation expands significantly as population grows

  18. Sourcebook for energy assessment. [Reference Energy Systems for 1972-2020

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Beller, M. (ed.)

    1975-12-01

    An analytical approach is presented that is broadly applicable to the assessment of energy technologies and policies. Using the Reference Energy System approach, it permits the examination of the economic, environmental, and resource implications resulting from the substitution of one fuel or technology for another. Included as tools for such analyses are the necessary data and methodology, as well as a set of Reference Energy Systems covering the 1972-2020 period to serve as baselines for the perturbation analyses of interest. 46 tables, 25 figures, 71 references.

  19. Integrated life-cycle assessment of electricity-supply scenarios confirms global environmental benefit of low-carbon technologies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hertwich, Edgar G; Gibon, Thomas; Bouman, Evert A; Arvesen, Anders; Suh, Sangwon; Heath, Garvin A; Bergesen, Joseph D; Ramirez, Andrea; Vega, Mabel I; Shi, Lei

    2015-05-19

    Decarbonization of electricity generation can support climate-change mitigation and presents an opportunity to address pollution resulting from fossil-fuel combustion. Generally, renewable technologies require higher initial investments in infrastructure than fossil-based power systems. To assess the tradeoffs of increased up-front emissions and reduced operational emissions, we present, to our knowledge, the first global, integrated life-cycle assessment (LCA) of long-term, wide-scale implementation of electricity generation from renewable sources (i.e., photovoltaic and solar thermal, wind, and hydropower) and of carbon dioxide capture and storage for fossil power generation. We compare emissions causing particulate matter exposure, freshwater ecotoxicity, freshwater eutrophication, and climate change for the climate-change-mitigation (BLUE Map) and business-as-usual (Baseline) scenarios of the International Energy Agency up to 2050. We use a vintage stock model to conduct an LCA of newly installed capacity year-by-year for each region, thus accounting for changes in the energy mix used to manufacture future power plants. Under the Baseline scenario, emissions of air and water pollutants more than double whereas the low-carbon technologies introduced in the BLUE Map scenario allow a doubling of electricity supply while stabilizing or even reducing pollution. Material requirements per unit generation for low-carbon technologies can be higher than for conventional fossil generation: 11-40 times more copper for photovoltaic systems and 6-14 times more iron for wind power plants. However, only two years of current global copper and one year of iron production will suffice to build a low-carbon energy system capable of supplying the world's electricity needs in 2050.

  20. Assessment of the water supply:demand ratios in a Mediterranean basin under different global change scenarios and mitigation alternatives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boithias, Laurie; Acuña, Vicenç; Vergoñós, Laura; Ziv, Guy; Marcé, Rafael; Sabater, Sergi

    2014-02-01

    Spatial differences in the supply and demand of ecosystem services such as water provisioning often imply that the demand for ecosystem services cannot be fulfilled at the local scale, but it can be fulfilled at larger scales (regional, continental). Differences in the supply:demand (S:D) ratio for a given service result in different values, and these differences might be assessed with monetary or non-monetary metrics. Water scarcity occurs where and when water resources are not enough to meet all the demands, and this affects equally the service of water provisioning and the ecosystem needs. In this study we assess the value of water in a Mediterranean basin under different global change (i.e. both climate and anthropogenic changes) and mitigation scenarios, with a non-monetary metric: the S:D ratio. We computed water balances across the Ebro basin (North-East Spain) with the spatially explicit InVEST model. We highlight the spatial and temporal mismatches existing across a single hydrological basin regarding water provisioning and its consumption, considering or not, the environmental demand (environmental flow). The study shows that water scarcity is commonly a local issue (sub-basin to region), but that all demands are met at the largest considered spatial scale (basin). This was not the case in the worst-case scenario (increasing demands and decreasing supply), as the S:D ratio at the basin scale was near 1, indicating that serious problems of water scarcity might occur in the near future even at the basin scale. The analysis of possible mitigation scenarios reveals that the impact of global change may be counteracted by the decrease of irrigated areas. Furthermore, the comparison between a non-monetary (S:D ratio) and a monetary (water price) valuation metrics reveals that the S:D ratio provides similar values and might be therefore used as a spatially explicit metric to valuate the ecosystem service water provisioning. © 2013.

  1. Life cycle assessment of integrated waste management systems for alternative legacy scenarios of the London Olympic Park

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Parkes, Olga, E-mail: o.parkes@ucl.ac.uk; Lettieri, Paola, E-mail: p.lettieri@ucl.ac.uk; Bogle, I. David L.

    2015-06-15

    Highlights: • Application of LCA in planning integrated waste management systems. • Environmental valuation of 3 legacy scenarios for the Olympic Park. • Hot-spot analysis highlights the importance of energy and materials recovery. • Most environmental savings are achieved through materials recycling. • Sensitivity analysis shows importance of waste composition and recycling rates. - Abstract: This paper presents the results of the life cycle assessment (LCA) of 10 integrated waste management systems (IWMSs) for 3 potential post-event site design scenarios of the London Olympic Park. The aim of the LCA study is to evaluate direct and indirect emissions resulting from various treatment options of municipal solid waste (MSW) annually generated on site together with avoided emissions resulting from energy, materials and nutrients recovery. IWMSs are modelled using GaBi v6.0 Product Sustainability software and results are presented based on the CML (v.Nov-10) characterisation method. The results show that IWMSs with advanced thermal treatment (ATT) and incineration with energy recovery have the lowest Global Warming Potential (GWP) than IWMSs where landfill is the primary waste treatment process. This is due to higher direct emissions and lower avoided emissions from the landfill process compared to the emissions from the thermal treatment processes. LCA results demonstrate that significant environmental savings are achieved through substitution of virgin materials with recycled ones. The results of the sensitivity analysis carried out for IWMS 1 shows that increasing recycling rate by 5%, 10% and 15% compared to the baseline scenario can reduce GWP by 8%, 17% and 25% respectively. Sensitivity analysis also shows how changes in waste composition affect the overall result of the system. The outcomes of such assessments provide decision-makers with fundamental information regarding the environmental impacts of different waste treatment options necessary for

  2. A stochastic Forest Fire Model for future land cover scenarios assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. D'Andrea

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Land cover is affected by many factors including economic development, climate and natural disturbances such as wildfires. The ability to evaluate how fire regimes may alter future vegetation, and how future vegetation may alter fire regimes, would assist forest managers in planning management actions to be carried out in the face of anticipated socio-economic and climatic change. In this paper, we present a method for calibrating a cellular automata wildfire regime simulation model with actual data on land cover and wildfire size-frequency. The method is based on the observation that many forest fire regimes, in different forest types and regions, exhibit power law frequency-area distributions. The standard Drossel-Schwabl cellular automata Forest Fire Model (DS-FFM produces simulations which reproduce this observed pattern. However, the standard model is simplistic in that it considers land cover to be binary – each cell either contains a tree or it is empty – and the model overestimates the frequency of large fires relative to actual landscapes. Our new model, the Modified Forest Fire Model (MFFM, addresses this limitation by incorporating information on actual land use and differentiating among various types of flammable vegetation. The MFFM simulation model was tested on forest types with Mediterranean and sub-tropical fire regimes. The results showed that the MFFM was able to reproduce structural fire regime parameters for these two regions. Further, the model was used to forecast future land cover. Future research will extend this model to refine the forecasts of future land cover and fire regime scenarios under climate, land use and socio-economic change.

  3. An assessment of the radiological scenario around uranium mines in Singhbhum East district, Jharkhand, India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tripathi, R M; Sahoo, S K; Mohapatra, S; Patra, A C; Lenka, P; Dubey, J S; Jha, V N; Puranik, V D

    2012-07-01

    The present work deals with the prevalent radiological scenario around uranium-mining sites in the Singhbhum East district of Jharkhand state, India. The concentration of naturally occurring radioactive materials (NORMs) was estimated from 27 soil samples collected around three regions in the study area, namely Bagjata, Turamdih and Jaduguda. The mean activity concentrations of (238)U in Bagjata, Turamdih and Jaduguda regions were found to be 128.6, 95.7 and 49.2 Bq kg(-1), respectively. Similarly for (232)Th and (40)K the activity concentrations were found to be 57.3, 78.4, 68.9 and 530, 425 and 615 Bq kg(-1) in the Bagjata, Turamdih and Jaduguda regions, respectively, which are comparable with other reported values worldwide, except for some high values. The calculated gamma dose rate, obtained from the concentrations of (238)U, (232)Th and (40)K in the samples, was compared with the observed dose rate in air. A good correlation (0.96) was observed between the calculated and the observed gamma dose rate. The annual outdoor effective dose rate was estimated and the values falls between 0.04-0.3, 0.07-0.3 and 0.07-.14 mSv y(-1) with mean values of 0.14, 0.12 and 0.11 mSv y(-1) for the Bagjata, Turamdih and Jaduguda regions, respectively. The terrestrial dose rates in all the three regions are comparable with other reported values worldwide, except for a few high values in Greece, Rio Grande Do Norte (Brazil) and Kalpakkam (India).

  4. Effect of endogenous reference genes on digital PCR assessment of genetically engineered canola events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Demeke, Tigst; Eng, Monika

    2018-05-01

    Droplet digital PCR (ddPCR) has been used for absolute quantification of genetically engineered (GE) events. Absolute quantification of GE events by duplex ddPCR requires the use of appropriate primers and probes for target and reference gene sequences in order to accurately determine the amount of GE materials. Single copy reference genes are generally preferred for absolute quantification of GE events by ddPCR. Study has not been conducted on a comparison of reference genes for absolute quantification of GE canola events by ddPCR. The suitability of four endogenous reference sequences ( HMG-I/Y , FatA(A), CruA and Ccf) for absolute quantification of GE canola events by ddPCR was investigated. The effect of DNA extraction methods and DNA quality on the assessment of reference gene copy numbers was also investigated. ddPCR results were affected by the use of single vs. two copy reference genes. The single copy, FatA(A), reference gene was found to be stable and suitable for absolute quantification of GE canola events by ddPCR. For the copy numbers measured, the HMG-I/Y reference gene was less consistent than FatA(A) reference gene. The expected ddPCR values were underestimated when CruA and Ccf (two copy endogenous Cruciferin sequences) were used because of high number of copies. It is important to make an adjustment if two copy reference genes are used for ddPCR in order to obtain accurate results. On the other hand, real-time quantitative PCR results were not affected by the use of single vs. two copy reference genes.

  5. Assessing hydrologic impacts of future Land Change scenarios in the San Pedro River (U.S./Mexico)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kepner, W. G.; Burns, S.; Sidman, G.; Levick, L.; Goodrich, D. C.; Guertin, P.; Yee, W.; Scianni, M.

    2012-12-01

    An approach was developed to characterize the hydrologic impacts of urban expansion through time for the San Pedro River, a watershed of immense international importance that straddles the U.S./Mexico border. Future urban growth is a key driving force altering local and regional hydrology and is represented by decadal changes in housing density maps from 2010 to 2100 derived from the Integrated Climate and Land-Use Scenarios (ICLUS) database. ICLUS developed future housing density maps by adapting the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) social, economic, and demographic storylines to the conterminous United States. To characterize the hydrologic impacts of future growth, the housing density maps were reclassified to National Land Cover Database 2006 land cover classes and used to parameterize the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) using the Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment (AGWA) tool. The presentation will report 1) the methodology for adapting the ICLUS data for use in AGWA as an approach to evaluate basin-wide impacts of development on water-quantity and -quality, 2) initial results of the application of the methodology, and 3) discuss implications of the analysis.

  6. Application of portfolio analysis to the Dutch generating mix. Reference case and two renewables cases, year 2030, SE and GE scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jansen, J.C.; Beurskens, L.W.M.; Van Tilburg, X.

    2006-02-01

    This report presents results of an application of Markowitz Portfolio Theory (MPT) to the future portfolio of electricity generating technologies in the Netherlands in year 2030. Projections are made based on two specific scenarios constructed by the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB), i.e. 'Strong Europe (SE)' and 'Global Economy (GE)'. This study zooms in on the electricity cost risk dimension of the Dutch portfolio of generating technologies. Major results of this study are: (a) In both scenarios, the base variant is not very efficient. Graphical analysis suggests that diversification may yield up to 20% risk reduction at no extra cost; (b) Promotion of renewable energy can greatly decrease the portfolio risk. Defining mixes without renewables results in significantly riskier mixes with relatively small impact on portfolio costs; (c) Because of its relative low risk and high potential, large-scale implementation of offshore wind can reduce cost risk of the Dutch generating portfolio while only in the GE scenario a (small) upward effect on the projected Dutch electricity cost in year 2030 is foreseen. In a SE world large-scale implementation of offshore wind is projected to have a downward effect on Dutch electricity prices by the year 2030

  7. Effect of Engaging Trainees by Assessing Peer Performance: A Randomised Controlled Trial Using Simulated Patient Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charlotte Loumann Krogh

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction. The aim of this study was to explore the learning effect of engaging trainees by assessing peer performance during simulation-based training. Methods. Eighty-four final year medical students participated in the study. The intervention involved trainees assessing peer performance during training. Outcome measures were in-training performance and performance, both of which were measured two weeks after the course. Trainees’ performances were videotaped and assessed by two expert raters using a checklist that included a global rating. Trainees’ satisfaction with the training was also evaluated. Results. The intervention group obtained a significantly higher overall in-training performance score than the control group: mean checklist score 20.87 (SD 2.51 versus 19.14 (SD 2.65 P=0.003 and mean global rating 3.25 SD (0.99 versus 2.95 (SD 1.09 P=0.014. Postcourse performance did not show any significant difference between the two groups. Trainees who assessed peer performance were more satisfied with the training than those who did not: mean 6.36 (SD 1.00 versus 5.74 (SD 1.33 P=0.025. Conclusion. Engaging trainees in the assessment of peer performance had an immediate effect on in-training performance, but not on the learning outcome measured two weeks later. Trainees had a positive attitude towards the training format.

  8. JAXA's Space Exploration Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sato, N. S.

    2018-04-01

    Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) has been studying space exploration scenario, including human exploration for Japan since 2015, which encompasses goals, knowledge gap assessment, and architecture. assessment, and technology roadmap.

  9. Scenarios of long-term farm structural change for application in climate change impact assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mandryk, M.; Reidsma, P.; Ittersum, van M.K.

    2012-01-01

    Towards 2050, climate change is one of the possible drivers that will change the farming landscape, but market, policy and technological development may be at least equally important. In the last decade, many studies assessed impacts of climate change and specific adaptation strategies. However,

  10. Waste management in the Irkutsk region, Siberia, Russia: An environmental assessment of alternative development scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Starostina, Vlada; Damgaard, Anders; Eriksen, Marie Kampmann

    2018-01-01

    The current waste management system, handling around 500,000 t of household, commercial, and institutional waste annually in the Irkutsk region, Siberia, is based on landfilling in an old landfill with no controls of leachate and gas. Life-cycle assessment modelling of the current system shows th...

  11. Assessment of irrigated maize yield response to climate change scenarios in Portugal

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Yang, Chenyao; Fraga, Helder; Ieperen, van W.; Andrade Santos, João

    2017-01-01

    Maize is an important crop for the Portuguese agricultural sector. Future climate change, with warmer and dryer conditions in this Mediterranean environment, will challenge this high-water demanding crop. The present study aims at assessing the response of maize yield, growth cycle, seasonal water

  12. ANCRE scenarios for energy transition. Report 2013

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alazard-Toux, Nathalie; Des Courtils, Nicolas; Hache, Emmanuel; Liegeard, Alban; Lorne, Daphne; Duplan, Jean-Luc; Kalaydjian, Francois; Heintze, Eric; Tilagone, Richard; Henriot, Stephane; Forti, Laurent; Barthelemy, Pascal; Merlen, Elisabeth; Criqui, Patrick; Mathy, Sandrine; Menanteau, Philippe; Devezeaux De Lavergne, Jean-Guy; Avril, Sophie; Cavata, Christian; Le Duigou, Alain; Le Net, Elisabeth; Marcucci-Demeure, Jeanne; Safa, Henri; Topper, Benjamin; Touboul, Francoise; Carre, Franck; Joly, Jean-Pierre; Charbit, Francoise; Mermilliod, Nicole; Mermilliod, Nicole; Le Net, Elisabeth; Teissier, Olivier; Charrue, Herve; Colonna, Paul; Legrand, Jack; Vidal, Olivier; Goffe, Bruno; Mueller, Alex; Flamant, Gilles; Allard, Francis; Most, Jean-Michel; Matarasso, Pierre; Brault, Pascal; Lemoine, Lionel; Achard, Jean-Luc; Uster, Guillaume; Delsey, Jean; Lucchese, Paul; Tadrist, Lounes; Hadjsaid, Nouredine

    2014-01-01

    This report first gives an overview of the energy system by presenting the determining factors of energy demand and of CO 2 emissions per sector (housing and office building, transport, industry, agriculture, forestry and biomass), by analysing energy systems and CO 2 emissions (energy sources, energy vectors, networks and storage, energy and CO 2 assessment for France), and by describing the guidelines of the scenarios proposed by ANCRE. The three main scenarios are characterized by a stronger sobriety, an electricity-based de-carbonation (with a variant based on nuclear and renewable energies), and diversified vectors. They are notably compared to a trend-based reference scenario. Results are discussed in terms of energy consumption (primary and final energy, consumption by the different sectors), of energy production and CO 2 emissions. Scenarios are assessed in terms of economic, environmental and societal, political and strategic criteria. Some consequences for research topics and funding are identified

  13. Assessment of a dynamic reference material for calibration of full-field measurement systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hack, Erwin; Feligiotti, Mara; Davighi, Andrea; Whelan, Maurice; Wang, Weizhuo V.; Patterson, Eann A.

    2012-10-01

    For holography and speckle interferometry the calibration of the sensitivity is a must, because illumination and observation directions vary across the field of view. A numerical estimate or a static calibration using rigid body motions is standard, and reference materials exist for static strain calibration. Recently, reference materials for the dynamic calibration of optical instruments of displacement and strain measurement were designed and prototypes were manufactured in the European FP7 project ADVISE. We review the properties of the reference material and the concept of traceability for the field of displacement values by using a calibrated single point transducer. The mode shape is assessed using out-of-plane DSPI, Finite Element Analysis as well as analytic solutions of the plate vibration. We present measurements using stroboscopic DSPI on the reference material under acoustic excitation and compare the measured mode shapes to the ones predicted by FE analysis. We apply different comparison methodologies based on point-by-point deviations and on decomposition of the mode shapes into a set of orthogonal basis functions. The latter method is well suited to assess stability and reproducibility of a mode shape. Finally, the deviations are used to estimate the reference material uncertainty which is an essential parameter for determining the calibration uncertainty. Uncertainty contributions of the DSPI set-up are taken into account. To conclude, the application area and limitations of the reference material are discussed.

  14. Uncertainty of fast biological radiation dose assessment for emergency response scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ainsbury, Elizabeth A; Higueras, Manuel; Puig, Pedro; Einbeck, Jochen; Samaga, Daniel; Barquinero, Joan Francesc; Barrios, Lleonard; Brzozowska, Beata; Fattibene, Paola; Gregoire, Eric; Jaworska, Alicja; Lloyd, David; Oestreicher, Ursula; Romm, Horst; Rothkamm, Kai; Roy, Laurence; Sommer, Sylwester; Terzoudi, Georgia; Thierens, Hubert; Trompier, Francois; Vral, Anne; Woda, Clemens

    2017-01-01

    Reliable dose estimation is an important factor in appropriate dosimetric triage categorization of exposed individuals to support radiation emergency response. Following work done under the EU FP7 MULTIBIODOSE and RENEB projects, formal methods for defining uncertainties on biological dose estimates are compared using simulated and real data from recent exercises. The results demonstrate that a Bayesian method of uncertainty assessment is the most appropriate, even in the absence of detailed prior information. The relative accuracy and relevance of techniques for calculating uncertainty and combining assay results to produce single dose and uncertainty estimates is further discussed. Finally, it is demonstrated that whatever uncertainty estimation method is employed, ignoring the uncertainty on fast dose assessments can have an important impact on rapid biodosimetric categorization.

  15. Parameter variation and scenario analysis in impact assessments of emerging energy technologies

    OpenAIRE

    Breunig, Hanna Marie

    2015-01-01

    There is a global need for energy technologies that reduce the adverse impacts of societal progress and that address today's challenges without creating tomorrow's problems. Life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) can support technology developers in achieving these prerequisites of sustainability by providing a systems perspective. However, modeling the early-stage scale up and impacts of technology systems may lead to unreliable or incomplete results due to a lack of representative technical, s...

  16. Toward refined environmental scenarios for ecological risk assessment of down-the-drain chemicals in freshwater environments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franco, Antonio; Price, Oliver R; Marshall, Stuart; Jolliet, Olivier; Van den Brink, Paul J; Rico, Andreu; Focks, Andreas; De Laender, Frederik; Ashauer, Roman

    2017-03-01

    Current regulatory practice for chemical risk assessment suffers from the lack of realism in conventional frameworks. Despite significant advances in exposure and ecological effect modeling, the implementation of novel approaches as high-tier options for prospective regulatory risk assessment remains limited, particularly among general chemicals such as down-the-drain ingredients. While reviewing the current state of the art in environmental exposure and ecological effect modeling, we propose a scenario-based framework that enables a better integration of exposure and effect assessments in a tiered approach. Global- to catchment-scale spatially explicit exposure models can be used to identify areas of higher exposure and to generate ecologically relevant exposure information for input into effect models. Numerous examples of mechanistic ecological effect models demonstrate that it is technically feasible to extrapolate from individual-level effects to effects at higher levels of biological organization and from laboratory to environmental conditions. However, the data required to parameterize effect models that can embrace the complexity of ecosystems are large and require a targeted approach. Experimental efforts should, therefore, focus on vulnerable species and/or traits and ecological conditions of relevance. We outline key research needs to address the challenges that currently hinder the practical application of advanced model-based approaches to risk assessment of down-the-drain chemicals. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2017;13:233-248. © 2016 SETAC. © 2016 SETAC.

  17. A novel no-reference objective stereoscopic video quality assessment method based on visual saliency analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Xinyan; Zhao, Wei; Ye, Long; Zhang, Qin

    2017-07-01

    This paper proposes a no-reference objective stereoscopic video quality assessment method with the motivation that making the effect of objective experiments close to that of subjective way. We believe that the image regions with different visual salient degree should not have the same weights when designing an assessment metric. Therefore, we firstly use GBVS algorithm to each frame pairs and separate both the left and right viewing images into the regions with strong, general and week saliency. Besides, local feature information like blockiness, zero-crossing and depth are extracted and combined with a mathematical model to calculate a quality assessment score. Regions with different salient degree are assigned with different weights in the mathematical model. Experiment results demonstrate the superiority of our method compared with the existed state-of-the-art no-reference objective Stereoscopic video quality assessment methods.

  18. Assessment and comparison of total RF-EMF exposure in femtocell and macrocell base station scenarios

    OpenAIRE

    Aerts, Sam; Plets, David; Verloock, Leen; Martens, Luc; Joseph, Wout

    2014-01-01

    The indoor coverage of a mobile service can be drastically improved by deployment of an indoor femtocell base station (FBS). However, the impact of its proximity on the total exposure of the human body to radio-frequency (RF) electromagnetic fields (EMFs) is unknown. Using a framework designed for the combination of near-field and far-field exposure, the authors assessed and compared the RF-EMF exposure of a mobile-phone (MP) user that is either connected to an FBS or a conventional macrocell...

  19. Probabilistic risk assessment for back-end facilities: Improving the treatment of fire and explosion scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sunman, C.R.J.; Campbell, R.J.; Wakem, M.J.

    1996-01-01

    The nuclear reprocessing facilities at Sellafield are a key component of the International business of BNFL. The operations carried out at the site extend from the receipt and storage of irradiated fuel, chemical reprocessing, plutonium and uranium finishing, through mixed oxide fuel production. Additionally there are a wide range of supporting processes including solid waste encapsulation, vitrification, liquid waste evaporation and treatment. Decommissioning of the site's older facilities is also proceeding. The comprehensive range of these activities requires that the safety assessment team keeps up to date with developments in the field, as well as conducting and sponsoring appropriate research into methodologies and modelling in order to deliver a cost effective, timely service. This paper will review the role of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) in safety cases for operations at Sellafield and go on to describe some areas of PRA methodology development in the UK and in which BNFL is a contributor. Finally the paper will summarise some specific areas of methodology development associated with improving the modelling of fire and explosion hazards which are specific to BNFL. (author)

  20. Patient-Assessed Chronic Illness Care (PACIC scenario in an Indian homeopathic hospital

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Munmun Koley

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Homeopathy research has focused on chronic conditions; however, the extent to which current homeopathic care is compliant with the Chronic Care Model (CCM has been sparsely shown. As the Bengali Patient-Assessed Chronic Illness Care (PACIC-20 was not available, the English questionnaire was translated and evaluated in a government homeopathic hospital in West Bengal, India. The translation was done in six steps, and approved by an expert committee. Face validity was tested by 15 people for comprehension. Test/retest reliability (reproducibility was tested on 30 patients with chronic conditions. Internal consistency was tested in 377 patients suffering from various chronic conditions. The questionnaire showed acceptable test/retest reliability [intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC 0.57–0.75; positive to strong positive correlations; p0.05; however, monthly household income had a significant influence (p<0.05 on the subscales except for “delivery system or practice design.” Overall, chronic illness care appeared to be quite promising and CCM-compliant. The psychometric properties of the Bengali PACIC-20 were satisfactory, rendering it a valid and reliable instrument for assessing chronic illness care among the patients attending a homeopathic hospital.

  1. Pesticide exposure assessment for surface waters in the EU. Part 2: Determination of statistically based run-off and drainage scenarios for Germany.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bach, Martin; Diesner, Mirjam; Großmann, Dietlinde; Guerniche, Djamal; Hommen, Udo; Klein, Michael; Kubiak, Roland; Müller, Alexandra; Preuss, Thomas G; Priegnitz, Jan; Reichenberger, Stefan; Thomas, Kai; Trapp, Matthias

    2017-05-01

    In order to assess surface water exposure to active substances of plant protection products (PPPs) in the European Union (EU), the FOCUS (FOrum for the Co-ordination of pesticide fate models and their USe) surface water workgroup introduced four run-off and six drainage scenarios for Step 3 of the tiered FOCUSsw approach. These scenarios may not necessarily represent realistic worst-case situations for the different Member States of the EU. Hence, the suitability of the scenarios for risk assessment in the national authorisation procedures is not known. Using Germany as an example, the paper illustrates how national soil-climate scenarios can be developed to model entries of active substances into surface waters from run-off and erosion (using the model PRZM) and from drainage (using the model MACRO). In the authorisation procedure for PPPs on Member State level, such soil-climate scenarios can be used to determine exposure endpoints with a defined overall percentile. The approach allows the development of national specific soil-climate scenarios and to calculate percentile-based exposure endpoints. The scenarios have been integrated into a software tool analogous to FOCUS-SWASH which can be used in the future to assess surface water exposure in authorisation procedures of PPPs in Germany. © 2017 The Authors. Pest Management Science published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry. © 2017 The Authors. Pest Management Science published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry.

  2. Cross-cultural assessment of automatically generated multimodal referring expressions in a virtual world

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Sluis, Ielka; Luz, Saturnino; Breitfuss, Werner; Ishizuka, Mitsuru; Prendinger, Helmut

    This paper presents an assessment of automatically generated multimodal referring expressions as produced by embodied conversational agents in a virtual world. The algorithm used for this purpose employs general principles of human motor control and cooperativity in dialogues that can be

  3. Sign languages and the Common European Framework of Reference for Languages : Descriptors and approaches to assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    L. Leeson; Dr. Beppie van den Bogaerde; Tobias Haug; C. Rathmann

    2015-01-01

    This resource establishes European standards for sign languages for professional purposes in line with the Common European Framework of Reference for Languages (CEFR) and provides an overview of assessment descriptors and approaches. Drawing on preliminary work undertaken in adapting the CEFR to

  4. A retrospective chart study: The pathway to a diagnosis for adults referred for ASD assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Geurts, H.M.; Jansen, M.D.

    2012-01-01

    Charts of 125 adults (18 to 82 years), referred to an autism expert team for Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) assessment, were reviewed to explore the pathway to an adulthood ASD diagnosis. The participants first contacted the mental health care clinic at a median age of 19 years (range 2 to 78

  5. The potential of clustering methods to define intersection test scenarios: Assessing real-life performance of AEB.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sander, Ulrich; Lubbe, Nils

    2018-04-01

    Intersection accidents are frequent and harmful. The accident types 'straight crossing path' (SCP), 'left turn across path - oncoming direction' (LTAP/OD), and 'left-turn across path - lateral direction' (LTAP/LD) represent around 95% of all intersection accidents and one-third of all police-reported car-to-car accidents in Germany. The European New Car Assessment Program (Euro NCAP) have announced that intersection scenarios will be included in their rating from 2020; however, how these scenarios are to be tested has not been defined. This study investigates whether clustering methods can be used to identify a small number of test scenarios sufficiently representative of the accident dataset to evaluate Intersection Automated Emergency Braking (AEB). Data from the German In-Depth Accident Study (GIDAS) and the GIDAS-based Pre-Crash Matrix (PCM) from 1999 to 2016, containing 784 SCP and 453 LTAP/OD accidents, were analyzed with principal component methods to identify variables that account for the relevant total variances of the sample. Three different methods for data clustering were applied to each of the accident types, two similarity-based approaches, namely Hierarchical Clustering (HC) and Partitioning Around Medoids (PAM), and the probability-based Latent Class Clustering (LCC). The optimum number of clusters was derived for HC and PAM with the silhouette method. The PAM algorithm was both initiated with random start medoid selection and medoids from HC. For LCC, the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) was used to determine the optimal number of clusters. Test scenarios were defined from optimal cluster medoids weighted by their real-life representation in GIDAS. The set of variables for clustering was further varied to investigate the influence of variable type and character. We quantified how accurately each cluster variation represents real-life AEB performance using pre-crash simulations with PCM data and a generic algorithm for AEB intervention. The

  6. History of Modern Earthquake Hazard Mapping and Assessment in California Using a Deterministic or Scenario Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mualchin, Lalliana

    2011-03-01

    Modern earthquake ground motion hazard mapping in California began following the 1971 San Fernando earthquake in the Los Angeles metropolitan area of southern California. Earthquake hazard assessment followed a traditional approach, later called Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis (DSHA) in order to distinguish it from the newer Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA). In DSHA, seismic hazard in the event of the Maximum Credible Earthquake (MCE) magnitude from each of the known seismogenic faults within and near the state are assessed. The likely occurrence of the MCE has been assumed qualitatively by using late Quaternary and younger faults that are presumed to be seismogenic, but not when or within what time intervals MCE may occur. MCE is the largest or upper-bound potential earthquake in moment magnitude, and it supersedes and automatically considers all other possible earthquakes on that fault. That moment magnitude is used for estimating ground motions by applying it to empirical attenuation relationships, and for calculating ground motions as in neo-DSHA (Z uccolo et al., 2008). The first deterministic California earthquake hazard map was published in 1974 by the California Division of Mines and Geology (CDMG) which has been called the California Geological Survey (CGS) since 2002, using the best available fault information and ground motion attenuation relationships at that time. The California Department of Transportation (Caltrans) later assumed responsibility for printing the refined and updated peak acceleration contour maps which were heavily utilized by geologists, seismologists, and engineers for many years. Some engineers involved in the siting process of large important projects, for example, dams and nuclear power plants, continued to challenge the map(s). The second edition map was completed in 1985 incorporating more faults, improving MCE's estimation method, and using new ground motion attenuation relationships from the latest published

  7. Hydrological Assessment of Model Performance and Scenario Analyses of Land Use Change and Climate Change in lowlands of Veneto Region (Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pijl, Anton; Brauer, Claudia; Sofia, Giulia; Teuling, Ryan; Tarolli, Paolo

    2017-04-01

    Growing water-related challenges in lowland areas of the world call for good assessment of our past and present actions, in order to guide our future decisions. The novel Wageningen Lowland Runoff Simulator (WALRUS; Brauer et al., 2014) was developed to simulate hydrological processes and has showed promising performance in recent studies in the Netherlands. Here the model was applied to a coastal basin of 2800 ha in the Veneto Region (northern Italy) to test model performance and evaluate scenario analyses of land use change and climate change. Located partially below sea-level, the reclaimed area is facing persistent land transformation and climate change trends, which alter not only the processes in the catchment but also the demands from it (Tarolli and Sofia, 2016). Firstly results of the calibration (NSE = 0.77; year simulation, daily resolution) and validation (NSE = 0.53; idem) showed that the model is able to reproduce the dominant hydrological processes of this lowland area (e.g. discharge and groundwater fluxes). Land use scenarios between 1951 and 2060 were constructed using demographic models, supported by orthographic interpretation techniques. Climate scenarios were constructed by historical records and future projections by COSMO-CLM regional climate model (Rockel et al., 2008) under the RCP4.5 pathway. WALRUS simulations showed that the land use changes result in a wetter catchment with more discharge, and the climatic changes cause more extremes with longer droughts and stronger rain events. These changes combined show drier summers (-33{%} rainfall, +27{%} soil moisture deficit) and wetter (+13{%} rainfall) and intenser (+30{%} rain intensity) autumn and winters in the future. The simulated discharge regime -particularly peak flow- follows these polarising trends, in good agreement with similar studies in the geographical zone (e.g. Vezzoli et al., 2015). This will increase the pressure on the fully-artificial drainage and agricultural systems

  8. Waste management in the Irkutsk region, Siberia, Russia: An environmental assessment of alternative development scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Starostina, Vlada; Damgaard, Anders; Eriksen, Marie K; Christensen, Thomas H

    2018-04-01

    The current waste management system, handling around 500,000 t of household, commercial, and institutional waste annually in the Irkutsk region, Siberia, is based on landfilling in an old landfill with no controls of leachate and gas. Life-cycle assessment modelling of the current system shows that it is a major load on the environment, while the simulation of seven alternative systems results in large savings in many impact categories. With respect to climate change, it is estimated that a saving of about 1200 kg CO 2 equivalents is possible per year, per inhabitant, which is a significant reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. The best alternatives involve efficient energy recovery from waste and recycling by source separation for commercial and institutional waste, the major waste type in the Irkutsk region. Recycling of household waste seems less attractive, and it is therefore recommended only to consider this option after experience has been gained with the commercial and institutional waste. Sensitivity analysis shows that recovery of energy - in particular electricity, heat, and steam - from waste is crucial to the environmental performance of the waste management system. This relates to the efficiencies of energy recovery as well as what the recovered energy substitutes, that is, the 'dirtier' the off-set energy, the higher the environmental savings for the waste management system. Since recovered energy may be utilised by only a few energy grids or industrial users, it is recommended to perform additional local assessments of the integration of the waste energy into existing systems and facilities.

  9. Eco-efficient production of spring barley in a changed climate: A Life Cycle Assessment including primary data from future climate scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Niero, Monia; Ingvordsen, Cathrine Heinz; Peltonen-Sainio, Pirjo

    2015-01-01

    The paper has two main objectives: (i) to assess the eco-efficiency of spring barley cultivation for malting in Denmark in a future changed climate (700 ppm [CO2] and +5 °C) through Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) and (ii) to compare alternative future cultivation scenarios, both excluding and includ......The paper has two main objectives: (i) to assess the eco-efficiency of spring barley cultivation for malting in Denmark in a future changed climate (700 ppm [CO2] and +5 °C) through Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) and (ii) to compare alternative future cultivation scenarios, both excluding...

  10. An interdisciplinary scenario analysis to assess the water availability and water consumption in the Upper Ouémé catchment in Benin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Giertz

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an interdisciplinary scenario analysis to assess the influence of global and regional change on future water availability and water consumption in the Upper Ouémé catchment in central Benin. For the region three development scenarios were evolved. These scenarios are combined with climate change scenarios based on the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In the mo-delling approach the quantification of the land use/land cover change is performed by the cellular automata model CLUE-S. The future climate scenarios are computed with the regional climate model REMO driven by the global ECHAM model. Using this data different land use and climate change scenarios can be calculated with the conceptual hydrological model UHP-HRU to assess the effects of global changes on the future water availability in Benin. To analyse the future water availability also the water consumption has to be taken into account. Due to high population growth an increase in water need in the future is expected for the region. To calculate the future household water consumption data from a regional survey and demographic projections are used. Development of the water need for animal husbandry is also considered. The first test run of the modelling approach was performed for the development scenario 'business as usual' combined with the IPCC scenario B2 for the year 2025. This test demonstrates the applicability of the approach for an interdisciplinary scenario analysis. A continuous run from 2000–2025 will be simulated for different scenarios as soon as the input data concerning land use/land cover and climate are available.

  11. Hydrogeological modelling for assessment of radionuclide release scenarios for the repository system 2012

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hartley, L.; Hoek, J.; Swan, D.; Appleyard, P.; Baxter, S.; Roberts, D.; Simpson, T. [AMEC (United Kingdom)

    2013-07-15

    Posiva Oy is responsible for implementing the programme for geological disposal of spent nuclear fuel produced by its owners Teollisuuden Voima Oyj (TVO) and Fortum Power and Heat Oy in Finland. Olkiluoto in Eurajoki has been selected as the primary site for the repository, subject to further detailed investigation which is currently focused on the construction of an underground rock characterisation and research facility (the ONKALO). An essential part of the assessment of long-term safety of a repository is the analysis of groundwater flow since it is the only means of transport of radionuclides to the biosphere (besides human intrusion). The analysis of long-term safety for a KBS-3 concept requires as input a description of details of the groundwater flow around and through components of the engineered barrier system as well as details of the groundwater pathway to the biosphere during the current temperate climate period, as well as indications of behaviour under future climate periods such as glacial conditions. This report describes the groundwater flow modelling study performed to provide some of the necessary inputs required by Safety Assessment (i.e. radionuclide transport analysis). Underlying this study is the understanding of the site developed during the site investigations as summarised in the site descriptive model (SDM), and in particular the description of Olkiluoto Hydrogeological DFN model (Hydro-DFN). The main focus of this study is the temperate climate period, i.e. the evolution over the next 10,000 years, but the hydrogeological situation under various glacial climate conditions is also evaluated. Primary outputs of the study are repository performance measures relating to: the distributions of groundwater flow around the deposition holes; deposition tunnels and through the EDZ; flow-related transport resistance along groundwater pathways from the repository to the surface; and their the exit locations. Other analyses consider the

  12. Hydrogeological modelling for assessment of radionuclide release scenarios for the repository system 2012

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hartley, L.; Hoek, J.; Swan, D.; Appleyard, P.; Baxter, S.; Roberts, D.; Simpson, T.

    2013-07-01

    Posiva Oy is responsible for implementing the programme for geological disposal of spent nuclear fuel produced by its owners Teollisuuden Voima Oyj (TVO) and Fortum Power and Heat Oy in Finland. Olkiluoto in Eurajoki has been selected as the primary site for the repository, subject to further detailed investigation which is currently focused on the construction of an underground rock characterisation and research facility (the ONKALO). An essential part of the assessment of long-term safety of a repository is the analysis of groundwater flow since it is the only means of transport of radionuclides to the biosphere (besides human intrusion). The analysis of long-term safety for a KBS-3 concept requires as input a description of details of the groundwater flow around and through components of the engineered barrier system as well as details of the groundwater pathway to the biosphere during the current temperate climate period, as well as indications of behaviour under future climate periods such as glacial conditions. This report describes the groundwater flow modelling study performed to provide some of the necessary inputs required by Safety Assessment (i.e. radionuclide transport analysis). Underlying this study is the understanding of the site developed during the site investigations as summarised in the site descriptive model (SDM), and in particular the description of Olkiluoto Hydrogeological DFN model (Hydro-DFN). The main focus of this study is the temperate climate period, i.e. the evolution over the next 10,000 years, but the hydrogeological situation under various glacial climate conditions is also evaluated. Primary outputs of the study are repository performance measures relating to: the distributions of groundwater flow around the deposition holes; deposition tunnels and through the EDZ; flow-related transport resistance along groundwater pathways from the repository to the surface; and their the exit locations. Other analyses consider the

  13. Life cycle assessment of EPS and CPB inserts: design considerations and end of life scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Reginald B H; Khoo, Hsien H

    2005-02-01

    Expanded polystyrene (EPS) and corrugated paperboard (CPB) are used in many industrial applications, such as containers, shock absorbers or simply as inserts. Both materials pose two different types of environmental problems. The first is the pollution and resource consumption that occur during the production of these materials; the second is the growing landfills that arise out of the excessive disposal of these packaging materials. Life cycle assessment or LCA will be introduced in this paper as a useful tool to compare the environmental performance of both EPS and CPB throughout their life cycle stages. This paper is divided into two main parts. The first part investigates the environmental impacts of the production of EPS and CPB from 'cradle-to-gate', comparing two inserts--both the original and proposed new designs. In the second part, LCA is applied to investigate various end-of-life cases for the same materials. The study will evaluate the environmental impacts of the present waste management practices in Singapore. Several 'what-if' cases are also discussed, including various percentages of landfilling and incineration. The SimaPro LCA Version 5.0 software's Eco-indicator 99 method is used to investigate the following five environmental impact categories: climate change, acidification/eutrophication, ecotoxicity, fossil fuels and respiratory inorganics.

  14. High water-stressed population estimated by world water resources assessment including human activities under SRES scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiguchi, M.; Shen, Y.; Kanae, S.; Oki, T.

    2009-04-01

    In an argument of the reduction and the adaptation for the climate change, the evaluation of the influence by the climate change is important. When we argue in adaptation plan from a damage scale and balance with the cost, it is particularly important. Parry et al (2001) evaluated the risks in shortage of water, malaria, food, the risk of the coast flood by temperature function and clarified the level of critical climate change. According to their evaluation, the population to be affected by the shortage of water suddenly increases in the range where temperature increases from 1.5 to 2.0 degree in 2080s. They showed how much we need to reduce emissions in order to draw-down significantly the number at risk. This evaluation of critical climate change threats and targets of water shortage did not include the water withdrawal divided by water availability. Shen et al (2008a) estimated the water withdrawal of projection of future world water resources according to socio-economic driving factors predicted for scenarios A1b, A2, B1, and B2 of the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES). However, these results were in function of not temperature but time. The assessment of the highly water-stressed population considered the socioeconomic development is necessary for a function of the temperature. Because of it is easy to understand to need to reduce emission. We present a multi-GCM analysis of the global and regional populations lived in highly water-stressed basin for a function of the temperature using the socioeconomic data and the outputs of GCMs. In scenario A2, the population increases gradually with warming. On the other hand, the future projection population in scenario A1b and B1 increase gradually until the temperature anomaly exceeds around from +1 to +1.5 degree. After that the population is almost constant. From Shen et al (2008b), we evaluated the HWSP and its ratio in the world with temperature function for scenarios A1B, A2, and B1 by the index of W

  15. Reference biospheres for the long term safety assessment of radioactive waste disposal facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crossland, I.G.; Torres, C.

    2002-01-01

    Regulatory guidance on the safety assessment of radioactive waste disposals usually requires the consequences of any radionuclide releases to be considered in terms of their potential impact on human health. This requires consideration of the prevailing biosphere and the habits of the potentially exposed humans within it. However, it could take many thousands of years for migrating radionuclides to reach the surface environment. In these circumstances, an assessment model that was based on the present-day biosphere could be inappropriate while future biospheres would be unpredictable. These and other considerations suggest that a standardised, or reference biosphere, approach may be useful. Theme 1 of the IAEA BIOMASS project was established to develop the concept of reference biospheres into a practical system that can be applied to the assessment of the long term safety of geological disposal facilities for radioactive waste. The technical phase of the project lasted for four years until November 2000 and brought together disparate interests from many countries including waste disposal agencies, regulators and technical experts. Building on the experience from earlier BIOMOVS projects, a methodology was constructed for the logical and defensible construction of mathematical biosphere models that can be used in the total system performance assessment of radioactive waste disposal. The methodology was then further developed through the creation of a series of BIOMASS Example Reference Biospheres ('Examples'). These are stylised biosphere models that, in addition to illustrating the methodology, are intended to be useful assessment tools in their own right. (author)

  16. Radiological impact assessment for a severe accident scenario for a CANDU 6 type NPP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Penescu, Maria; Mehedinteanu, Stefan; Cruceanu, Amalia; Ispas, Georgeta

    2004-01-01

    . The consequences of a given accidental release will depend on the values of a number of parameters, in particular, type and nature of the accident, the total amount of radioactive material and different radionuclides involved, the energy with which they are disposed in the environment, the nature of the surrounding environment and the mechanisms of radioactive dispersion and transfer. This paper presents some assessments on the LOCA type accident influence, without the intact loop cooling and ECCS in case of a hypothetical site. The developed assessments resulted in the necessity to evacuate the population up to a distance of about 10 km away from the sectors located in the wind blowing direction. Note that for a real situation of a site, smaller values of the doses are expected, considering other phenomena which may lead to the decrease of the dose values for individuals (the consideration of the meteorologic parameter hourly values, of precipitation, of the actual distribution of population, of the protection measure application, etc)

  17. Combining Reference Class Forecasting with Overconfidence Theory for Better Risk Assessment of Transport Infrastructure Investments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Leleur, Steen; Salling, Kim Bang; Pilkauskiene, Inga

    2015-01-01

    investments. In the last decade progress has been made by dealing with this situation known as planners’ optimism bias. Especially attention can be drawn to the use of reference class forecasting that has led to adjustment factors that, when used on the estimates of costs and demand, lead to cost......-benefit analysis results that are modified by taking historical risk experience into account. This article seeks to add to this progress in risk assessment methodology in two ways: first it suggests to apply reference class forecasting (RCF) in a flexible way where the effort is focused on formulating the best...

  18. Towards an optimal adaptation of exposure to NOAA assessment methodology in Multi-Source Industrial Scenarios (MSIS): the challenges and the decision-making process

    Science.gov (United States)

    López de Ipiña, JM; Vaquero, C.; Gutierrez-Cañas, C.

    2017-06-01

    It is expected a progressive increase of the industrial processes that manufacture of intermediate (iNEPs) and end products incorporating ENMs (eNEPs) to bring about improved properties. Therefore, the assessment of occupational exposure to airborne NOAA will migrate, from the simple and well-controlled exposure scenarios in research laboratories and ENMs production plants using innovative production technologies, to much more complex exposure scenarios located around processes of manufacture of eNEPs that, in many cases, will be modified conventional production processes. Here will be discussed some of the typical challenging situations in the process of risk assessment of inhalation exposure to NOAA in Multi-Source Industrial Scenarios (MSIS), from the basis of the lessons learned when confronted to those scenarios in the frame of some European and Spanish research projects.

  19. Food scenarios 2025

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sundbo, Jon

    2016-01-01

    This article presents the results of a future study of the food sector. Two scenarios have been developed using a combination of: 1) a summary of the relevant scientific knowledge, 2) systematic scenario writing, 3) an expert-based Delphi technique, and 4) an expert seminar assessment. The two...... scenarios present possible futures at global, national (Denmark) and regional (Zealand, Denmark) levels. The main scenario is called ‘Food for ordinary days and celebrations’ (a combination of ‘High-technological food production − The functional society’ and ‘High-gastronomic food − The experience society...

  20. Integrating experimental and numerical methods for a scenario-based quantitative assessment of subsurface energy storage options

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kabuth, Alina; Dahmke, Andreas; Hagrey, Said Attia al; Berta, Márton; Dörr, Cordula; Koproch, Nicolas; Köber, Ralf; Köhn, Daniel; Nolde, Michael; Tilmann Pfeiffer, Wolf; Popp, Steffi; Schwanebeck, Malte; Bauer, Sebastian

    2016-04-01

    Within the framework of the transition to renewable energy sources ("Energiewende"), the German government defined the target of producing 60 % of the final energy consumption from renewable energy sources by the year 2050. However, renewable energies are subject to natural fluctuations. Energy storage can help to buffer the resulting time shifts between production and demand. Subsurface geological structures provide large potential capacities for energy stored in the form of heat or gas on daily to seasonal time scales. In order to explore this potential sustainably, the possible induced effects of energy storage operations have to be quantified for both specified normal operation and events of failure. The ANGUS+ project therefore integrates experimental laboratory studies with numerical approaches to assess subsurface energy storage scenarios and monitoring methods. Subsurface storage options for gas, i.e. hydrogen, synthetic methane and compressed air in salt caverns or porous structures, as well as subsurface heat storage are investigated with respect to site prerequisites, storage dimensions, induced effects, monitoring methods and integration into spatial planning schemes. The conceptual interdisciplinary approach of the ANGUS+ project towards the integration of subsurface energy storage into a sustainable subsurface planning scheme is presented here, and this approach is then demonstrated using the examples of two selected energy storage options: Firstly, the option of seasonal heat storage in a shallow aquifer is presented. Coupled thermal and hydraulic processes induced by periodic heat injection and extraction were simulated in the open-source numerical modelling package OpenGeoSys. Situations of specified normal operation as well as cases of failure in operational storage with leaking heat transfer fluid are considered. Bench-scale experiments provided parameterisations of temperature dependent changes in shallow groundwater hydrogeochemistry. As a

  1. The assessment of natural flood management measures as a climate change adaptation option through land use scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iacob, Oana; Rowan, John; Brown, Iain; Ellis, Chris

    2014-05-01

    Climate change is one of the most pressing issues facing civil society. Greater variability and more frequent extremes of temperature and precipitation will result in increased flood risk and corresponding social, economic and environmental impacts. Complementing more traditional structurally-based engineering interventions an important additional adaptation strategy is through natural flood management (NFM) measures utilising natural soil, wetland and groundwater storage at the catchment scale to attenuate runoff generation and downstream flooding. Such schemes have multiple co-benefits including improved water quality, biodiversity and amenity and so contribute to greater resilience to uncertain climate futures. As a case-study of a more integrated approach to land use planning we here consider the policy target of the Scottish Government to expand woodland in Scotland by 100,000 ha by 2025 from the current 3 000 ha/year. In this paper we examine runoff response under different woodland expansion scenarios using climate projections obtained from the UK Climate Projections (UKCP09). Woodland creation has recognised potential as a NFM measure, but locating this new planting is constrained by physical and cultural constraints. Land use choices in the future will also strongly reflect emergent socio-economic contexts, here assessed through scenario analysis. The distributed hydrological model WaSiM-ETH was utilised for the analysis using the case-study of the Tarland catchment, a tributary of the River Dee. Terrain data were obtained on a 50 m grid and the model calibrated using meteorological and river gauge data from 2005 to 2007 following a manual and an automatic calibration process. This novel approach highlights that land use change should be carefully managed for planned benefits and to avoid unintended consequences, such as changing the timing of tributary flood responses. Whilst woodland expansion may only provide modest gains in flood reductions the co

  2. Scenario uncertainties in estimating direct land-use change emissions in biomass-to-energy life cycle assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Curtright, Aimee E.; Johnson, David R.; Willis, Henry H.; Skone, Timothy

    2012-01-01

    The use of biomass for energy production has increasingly been encouraged in the United States, in part motivated by the potential to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions relative to fossil fuels. However, the GHG-intensity of biomass-derived energy is highly dependent on how the biomass is obtained and used. We explore scenario uncertainty in GHG estimates in the Calculating Uncertainty in Biomass Emissions (CUBE) model and find that direct land-use change emissions that result during the biomass production often dominate the total “farm-to-hopper” GHGs. CUBE represents each land-use change decision as a conversion of land from one of four specified baseline ecosystem to produce one of seven feedstock crops, both distinct by geographic region, and then determines the implied changes in soil organic carbon, root carbon, and above-ground biomass. CUBE therefore synthesizes and organizes the existing literature to represent direct land-use change emissions in a way that can be more readily incorporated into life cycle assessment. Our approach to representing direct land-use change literature has been applied to a specific set of data and offers immediate implications for decisionmakers, but it can also be generalized and replicated in the future, making use of improved scientific data on the magnitude and rates of direct land-use change emissions as it becomes available. -- Highlights: ► The GHG-intensity of bioenergy depends on how the biomass is obtained and used. ► Total GHG emissions may be dominated by direct land-use change emissions. ► There is significant scenario uncertainty in emissions based on the location of production. ► Emissions vary based on time elapsed since land-use change conversions. ► Our approach can be generalized to use improved scientific data in the future.

  3. Chemistry of reference waters of the crystalline basement of Northern Switzerland for safety assessment studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pearson, F.J. Jr.; Scholtis, A.

    1993-08-01

    The chemistry of groundwater in formations being considered as host rocks for nuclear waste repositories must be known to assess the performance of those repositories, and as media for laboratory experiments. Two potential repository siting areas in the crystalline basement of northern Switzerland are being assessed. This report gives the chemistry of water in both areas for reference use in this assessment. The western area is in the region defined by the Kaisten, Leuggern, Boettstein, and Zurzach boreholes. The western reference water is based on samples from the Leuggern, Boettstein, and Zurzach boreholes. Kaisten water is of higher salinity (1.3 g/l). The concentration ranges of the reference water include Kaisten values, however. High quality samples and analyses, particularly from long term sampling at Zurzach and Leuggern, define the concentration ranges of many trace elements. The definition of this water assumes saturation with respect to calcite, baryte, fluorites, chalcedony, and kaolinite. The reference pe is based on the assumption that dissolved iron concentrations are controlled by the solubility of the mineral goethite, and is consistent with other redox indicators such as the measured Pt-electrode potential and the ratio of dissolved As(V) to As(III). The eastern area is characterized by the Siblingen boreholes. The eastern reference water is a Na-HCO 3 -SO 4 -(Cl) type with a total dissolved solids content of about 0.5 g/l. Only three samples taken during borehole drilling are available to define this water, so it can be specified in less detail and with less precision than the western water. Its definition assumes saturation with respect to calcite, baryte, and fluorites. The samples permit only a broad definition of its oxidation potential and content of redox-sensitive metals such as Fe, As, Mn, and U. Trace element data for the most part are lacking. (author) figs., tabs., 28 refs

  4. Reference methods and materials. A programme of support for regional and global marine pollution assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1990-01-01

    This document describes a programme of comprehensive support for regional and global marine pollution assessments developed by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) in cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) and with the collaboration of a number of other United Nations Specialized agencies including the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), the World Health Organisation (WHO) and the International Maritime Organisation (IMO). Two of the principle components of this programme, Reference Methods and Reference materials are given special attention in this document and a full Reference Method catalogue is included, giving details of over 80 methods currently available or in an advanced stage of preparation and testing. It is important that these methods are seen as a functional component of a much wider strategy necessary for assuring good quality and intercomparable data for regional and global pollution monitoring and the user is encouraged to read this document carefully before employing Reference Methods and Reference Materials in his/her laboratory. 3 figs

  5. Scenario planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Enzmann, Dieter R; Beauchamp, Norman J; Norbash, Alexander

    2011-03-01

    In facing future developments in health care, scenario planning offers a complementary approach to traditional strategic planning. Whereas traditional strategic planning typically consists of predicting the future at a single point on a chosen time horizon and mapping the preferred plans to address such a future, scenario planning creates stories about multiple likely potential futures on a given time horizon and maps the preferred plans to address the multiple described potential futures. Each scenario is purposefully different and specifically not a consensus worst-case, average, or best-case forecast; nor is scenario planning a process in probabilistic prediction. Scenario planning focuses on high-impact, uncertain driving forces that in the authors' example affect the field of radiology. Uncertainty is the key concept as these forces are mapped onto axes of uncertainty, the poles of which have opposed effects on radiology. One chosen axis was "market focus," with poles of centralized health care (government control) vs a decentralized private market. Another axis was "radiology's business model," with one pole being a unified, single specialty vs a splintered, disaggregated subspecialty. The third axis was "technology and science," with one pole representing technology enabling to radiology vs technology threatening to radiology. Selected poles of these axes were then combined to create 3 scenarios. One scenario, termed "entrepreneurialism," consisted of a decentralized private market, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. A second scenario, termed "socialized medicine," had a centralized market focus, a unified specialty business model, and enabling technology and science. A third scenario, termed "freefall," had a centralized market focus, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. These scenarios provide a range of futures that ultimately allow the identification of defined "signposts" that can

  6. Reliable assessment of general surgeons' non-technical skills based on video-recordings of patient simulated scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spanager, Lene; Beier-Holgersen, Randi; Dieckmann, Peter; Konge, Lars; Rosenberg, Jacob; Oestergaard, Doris

    2013-11-01

    Nontechnical skills are essential for safe and efficient surgery. The aim of this study was to evaluate the reliability of an assessment tool for surgeons' nontechnical skills, Non-Technical Skills for Surgeons dk (NOTSSdk), and the effect of rater training. A 1-day course was conducted for 15 general surgeons in which they rated surgeons' nontechnical skills in 9 video recordings of scenarios simulating real intraoperative situations. Data were gathered from 2 sessions separated by a 4-hour training session. Interrater reliability was high for both pretraining ratings (Cronbach's α = .97) and posttraining ratings (Cronbach's α = .98). There was no statistically significant development in assessment skills. The D study showed that 2 untrained raters or 1 trained rater was needed to obtain generalizability coefficients >.80. The high pretraining interrater reliability indicates that videos were easy to rate and Non-Technical Skills for Surgeons dk easy to use. This implies that Non-Technical Skills for Surgeons dk (NOTSSdk) could be an important tool in surgical training, potentially improving safety and quality for surgical patients. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Assessment of Geant4 Maintainability with respect to software engineering references

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ronchieri, Elisabetta; Grazia Pia, Maria; Canaparo, Marco

    2017-10-01

    Over time computer scientists have been provided metrics to measure software maintainability. In existing literature, a large number of references can be found about this topic; nevertheless, a lack of quantitative assessment of maintainability metrics has been observed. In this paper, we summarize the challenges of adopting code measurements in the context of physics software system. In this pilot study, we have used Geant4 - a twenty-year-old software system - to conduct this research and set the grounds for further discussion.

  8. A global multicenter study on reference values: 1. Assessment of methods for derivation and comparison of reference intervals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ichihara, Kiyoshi; Ozarda, Yesim; Barth, Julian H; Klee, George; Qiu, Ling; Erasmus, Rajiv; Borai, Anwar; Evgina, Svetlana; Ashavaid, Tester; Khan, Dilshad; Schreier, Laura; Rolle, Reynan; Shimizu, Yoshihisa; Kimura, Shogo; Kawano, Reo; Armbruster, David; Mori, Kazuo; Yadav, Binod K

    2017-04-01

    The IFCC Committee on Reference Intervals and Decision Limits coordinated a global multicenter study on reference values (RVs) to explore rational and harmonizable procedures for derivation of reference intervals (RIs) and investigate the feasibility of sharing RIs through evaluation of sources of variation of RVs on a global scale. For the common protocol, rather lenient criteria for reference individuals were adopted to facilitate harmonized recruitment with planned use of the latent abnormal values exclusion (LAVE) method. As of July 2015, 12 countries had completed their study with total recruitment of 13,386 healthy adults. 25 analytes were measured chemically and 25 immunologically. A serum panel with assigned values was measured by all laboratories. RIs were derived by parametric and nonparametric methods. The effect of LAVE methods is prominent in analytes which reflect nutritional status, inflammation and muscular exertion, indicating that inappropriate results are frequent in any country. The validity of the parametric method was confirmed by the presence of analyte-specific distribution patterns and successful Gaussian transformation using the modified Box-Cox formula in all countries. After successful alignment of RVs based on the panel test results, nearly half the analytes showed variable degrees of between-country differences. This finding, however, requires confirmation after adjusting for BMI and other sources of variation. The results are reported in the second part of this paper. The collaborative study enabled us to evaluate rational methods for deriving RIs and comparing the RVs based on real-world datasets obtained in a harmonized manner. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Scenario? Guilty!

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kyng, Morten

    1992-01-01

    Robert Campbell categorizes the word "scenario" as a buzzword, identifies four major uses within HCI and suggests that we adopt new terms differentiating these four uses of the word. My first reaction to reading the article was definitely positive, but rereading it gave me enough second thoughts...... to warrant a response. I should probably confess that I searched my latest paper for the word "scenario" and found eight occurrences, none of which fell in the categories described by Campbell....

  10. A statistical assessment of differences and equivalences between genetically modified and reference plant varieties

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amzal Billy

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Safety assessment of genetically modified organisms is currently often performed by comparative evaluation. However, natural variation of plant characteristics between commercial varieties is usually not considered explicitly in the statistical computations underlying the assessment. Results Statistical methods are described for the assessment of the difference between a genetically modified (GM plant variety and a conventional non-GM counterpart, and for the assessment of the equivalence between the GM variety and a group of reference plant varieties which have a history of safe use. It is proposed to present the results of both difference and equivalence testing for all relevant plant characteristics simultaneously in one or a few graphs, as an aid for further interpretation in safety assessment. A procedure is suggested to derive equivalence limits from the observed results for the reference plant varieties using a specific implementation of the linear mixed model. Three different equivalence tests are defined to classify any result in one of four equivalence classes. The performance of the proposed methods is investigated by a simulation study, and the methods are illustrated on compositional data from a field study on maize grain. Conclusions A clear distinction of practical relevance is shown between difference and equivalence testing. The proposed tests are shown to have appropriate performance characteristics by simulation, and the proposed simultaneous graphical representation of results was found to be helpful for the interpretation of results from a practical field trial data set.

  11. Determination of the scenarios to be included in the assessment of the safety of site for the disposal of radioactive waste in a deep geological formation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Escalier des Orres, P.; Devillers, C.; Cernes, A.; Izabel, C.

    1990-01-01

    The procedure for selection and qualification of a site for the disposal of radioactive waste in a deep geological formation began in France in the early eighties. The public authorities, working from a recommendation by the ANDRA, made a pre-selection of four sites, each of which corresponded to a particular type of geological formation - granite, clay, salt and shale. Within two years, one of these sites would be chosen as the location for an underground laboratory, intended to verify whether the site was suitable as a nuclear waste repository and to prepare for its construction. The safety analysis for site qualification makes use of evolutionary scenarios representing the repository and its environment, selected by means of a deterministic method. This analysis defines, with an appropriate level of detail, a 'reference' scenario and 'random events' scenarios. (author)

  12. Determination of the scenarios to be included in the assessment of the safety of site for the disposal of radioactive waste in a deep geological formation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Escalier des Orres, P; Devillers, C; Cernes, A; Izabel, C [Agence Nationale pour la Gestion des Dechets Radioactifs - ANDRA (France)

    1990-07-01

    The procedure for selection and qualification of a site for the disposal of radioactive waste in a deep geological formation began in France in the early eighties. The public authorities, working from a recommendation by the ANDRA, made a pre-selection of four sites, each of which corresponded to a particular type of geological formation - granite, clay, salt and shale. Within two years, one of these sites would be chosen as the location for an underground laboratory, intended to verify whether the site was suitable as a nuclear waste repository and to prepare for its construction. The safety analysis for site qualification makes use of evolutionary scenarios representing the repository and its environment, selected by means of a deterministic method. This analysis defines, with an appropriate level of detail, a 'reference' scenario and 'random events' scenarios. (author)

  13. Assessing hydrological drought risk for the irrigation sector in future climate scenarios: lessons learned from the Apulia case study (Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Critto, Andrea; Torresan, Silvia; Ronco, Paolo; Zennaro, Federica; Santini, Monia; Trabucco, Antonio; Marcomini, Antonio

    2016-04-01

    Climate change is already affecting the frequency of drought events which may threaten the current stocks of water resources and thus the availability of freshwater for the irrigation. The achievement of a sustainable equilibrium between the availability of water resources and the irrigation demand is essentially related to the planning and implementation of evidence-based adaptation strategies and actions. In this sense, the improvement (of existing) and the development of (new) appropriate risk assessment methods and tools to evaluate the impact of drought events on irrigated crops is fundamental in order to assure that the agricultural yields are appropriate to meet the current and future food and market demand. This study evaluates the risk of hydrological drought on the irrigated agronomic compartment of Apulia, a semi-arid region in Southern Italy. We applied a stepwise Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) procedure, based on the consecutive analysis of hazards, exposure, vulnerability and risks, integrating the qualitative and quantitative available information. Future climate projections for the timeframes 2021-2050 and 2041-2070 were provided by COSMO-CLM under the radiative forcing RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The run-off feeding the water stocks of the most important irrigation reservoirs in Apulia was then modeled with Arc-SWAT. Hence, the hazard analysis was carried out in order to estimate the degree of fulfillment of actual irrigation demand satisfied by water supply of different reservoirs in future scenarios. Vulnerability of exposed irrigated crops was evaluated depending on three factors accounting for crop yield variation vs water stress, water losses along the irrigation network, diversification of water supply. Resulting risk and vulnerability maps allowed: the identification of Reclamation Consortia at higher risk of not fulfilling their future irrigation demand (e.g. Capitanata Reclamation Consortia in RCP8.5 2041-2070 scenario); the ranking of most

  14. Draft environmental assessment: reference repository location, Hanford Site, Washington. Nuclear Waste Policy Act (Section 112)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1984-12-01

    In February 1983, the US Department of Energy (DOE) identified a reference repository location at the Hanford Site in Washington as one of nine potentially acceptable sites for a mined geologic repository for spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste. To determine their suitability, the reference repository location at the Hanford Site and the eight other potentially acceptable sites have been evaluated in accordance with the DOE's General Guidelines for the Recommendation of Sites for Nuclear Waste Repositories. These evaluations are reported in this draft environmental assessment (EA), which is being issued for public review and comment. The DOE findings and determinations that are based on these evaluations are preliminary and subject to public review and comment. A final EA will be prepared after considering the comments received on the draft EA. The reference repository location at Hanford is located in the Columbia Plateau, one of five distinct geohydrologic settings that are being considered for the first repository. On the basis of the evaluations reported in this draft EA, the DOE has found that the reference repository location at Hanford is not disqualified under the guidelines. The DOE has also found that it is suitable for site characterization because the evidence does not support a conclusion that the site will not be able to meet each of the qualifying conditions specified in the guidelines. On the basis of these findings, the DOE is proposing to nominate the reference repository location at Hanford as one of five sites suitable for characterization. Furthermore, having performed a comparative evaluation of the five sites proposed for nomination, the DOE has determined that the reference repository location at Hanford is one of three sites preferred for site characterization

  15. Using a Critical Incident Scenario With Virtual Humans to Assess Educational Needs of Nurses in a Postanesthesia Care Unit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, Casey; Chuah, Joon; Robb, Andrew; Lok, Benjamin; Lampotang, Samsun; Lizdas, David; Martindale, James; Pi, Guillermo; Wendling, Adam

    2015-01-01

    During critical incidents, teamwork failures can compromise patient safety. This study provides evidence that virtual humans can be used in simulated critical incidents to assess the learning needs of health professionals, and provide important information that can inform the development of continuing education programs in patient safety. We explored the effectiveness of information transfer during a devolving medical situation between postanesthesia care unit (PACU) nurses and a virtual attending physician. We designed a three-stage scenario: tutorial, patient transfer, and critical incident. We developed 2 checklists to assess information transfer: Critical Patient Information and Interprofessional Communication Skills. All participants were videotaped; 2 raters reviewed all videos and assessed performance using the checklists. Participants (n = 43) who completed all 3 stages scored 62.3% correct on critical patient information transfer and 61.6% correct on interprofessional communication skills. Almost 87% missed a fatal drug error. The checklists measured each item on a 1/0 (done/not) calculation. Additionally, no relationship was found between years of nursing experience and performance on either checklist. The PACU nurses in this study did not consistently share critical information with an attending (virtual) physician during a critical incident, and most missed a fatal dosage error. These findings strongly suggest a crucial need for additional structured team training among practicing health care teams, and they demonstrate the utility of using virtual humans to simulate team members. © 2015 The Alliance for Continuing Education in the Health Professions, the Society for Academic Continuing Medical Education, and the Council on Continuing Medical Education, Association for Hospital Medical Education.

  16. Patient and referring health care provider satisfaction with a physiotherapy spinal triage assessment service.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bath, Brenna; Janzen, Bonnie

    2012-01-01

    To evaluate participant and referring care provider satisfaction associated with a spinal triage assessment service delivered by physiotherapists in collaboration with orthopedic surgeons. People with low back-related complaints were recruited from those referred to a spinal triage assessment program delivered by physiotherapists. Measures of patient and provider satisfaction were completed at approximately 4 weeks after the assessment. The satisfaction surveys were analyzed quantitatively with descriptive statistics and qualitatively with an inductive thematic approach of open and axial coding. A total of 108/115 participants completed the posttest satisfaction survey. Sixty-six percent of participants were "very satisfied" with the service and 55% were "very satisfied" with the recommendations that were made. Only 18% of referring care providers completed the satisfaction survey and 90.5% of those were "very satisfied" with the recommendations. Sixty-one participants and 14 care providers provided comments which revealed a diverse range of themes which were coded into positive (ie, understanding the problem, communication, customer service, efficiency, and management direction), negative (ie, lack of detail, time to follow-up, cost) and neutral related to the triage service, and an "other" category unrelated to the service (ie, chronic symptoms, comorbidities, and limited access to health care.) The quantitative results of the participant survey demonstrated very high levels of satisfaction with the service and slightly less satisfaction with the recommendations that were made. Satisfaction of referring care providers with the recommendations and report was also high, but given the low response rate, these results should be interpreted with caution. Qualitative analysis of participant and provider comments revealed a diverse range of themes. These other issues may be important contextual factors that have the potential to impact patient relevant outcomes.

  17. Climate and socio-economic scenarios for climate change research and assessment: reconciling the new with the old

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Vuuren, D.P.; Carter, T.R.

    2014-01-01

    A suggestion for mapping the SRES illustrative scenarios onto the new scenarios framework of representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) is presented. The mapping first compares storylines describing future socio-economic developments for SRES and SSPs.

  18. The disposal of Canada's nuclear fuel waste: postclosure assessment of a reference system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goodwin, B.W.; McConnell, D.B.; Andres, T.H.

    1994-01-01

    The concept for disposal of Canada's nuclear fuel waste is based on a vault located deep in plutonic rock of the Canadian Shield. We document in this report a method to assess the long-term impacts of a disposal facility for nuclear fuel waste. The assessment integrates relevant information from engineering design studies, site investigations, laboratory studies, expert judgment and detailed mathematical analyses to evaluate system performance in terms of safety criteria, guidelines and standards. The method includes the use of quantitative tools such as the Systems Variability Analysis computer Code (SYVAC) to deal with parameter uncertainty and the use of reasoned arguments based on well-established scientific principles. We also document the utility of the method by describing its application to a hypothetical implementation of the concept called the reference disposal system. The reference disposal system generally conforms to the overall characteristics of the concept, except we have made some specific site and design choices so that the assessment would be more realistic. To make the reference system more representative of a real system, we have used the geological observations of the AECL's Whiteshell Research Area located near Lac du Bonnet, Manitoba, to define the characteristics of the geosphere and the groundwater flow system. This research area has been subject to more than a decade of geological and hydrological studies. The analysis of the reference disposal system provides estimates of radiological and chemical toxicity impacts on members of a critical group and estimates of possible impacts on the environment. The latter impacts include estimates of radiation dose to nonhuman organisms. Other quantitative analyses examine the use of derived constraints to improve the margin of safety, the effectiveness of engineered and natural barriers, and the sensitivity of the results to influential features, events, and processes of the reference disposal

  19. Including the temporal change in PM{sub 2.5} concentration in the assessment of human health impact: Illustration with renewable energy scenarios to 2050

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gschwind, Benoit, E-mail: benoit.gschwind@mines-paristech.fr [Centre Observation, Impacts, Energy, MINES ParisTech, 1 rue Claude Daunesse, CS 10207, F-06904 Sophia Antipolis (France); Lefevre, Mireille, E-mail: mireille.lefevre@mines-paristech.fr [Centre Observation, Impacts, Energy, MINES ParisTech, 1 rue Claude Daunesse, CS 10207, F-06904 Sophia Antipolis (France); Blanc, Isabelle, E-mail: isabelle.blanc@mines-paristech.fr [Centre Observation, Impacts, Energy, MINES ParisTech, 1 rue Claude Daunesse, CS 10207, F-06904 Sophia Antipolis (France); Ranchin, Thierry, E-mail: thierry.ranchin@mines-paristech.fr [Centre Observation, Impacts, Energy, MINES ParisTech, 1 rue Claude Daunesse, CS 10207, F-06904 Sophia Antipolis (France); Wyrwa, Artur, E-mail: awyrwa@agh.edu.pl [AGH University of Science and Technology, Al. Mickiewicza 30, Krakow 30-059 (Poland); Drebszok, Kamila [AGH University of Science and Technology, Al. Mickiewicza 30, Krakow 30-059 (Poland); Cofala, Janusz, E-mail: cofala@iiasa.ac.at [International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, 2067 Laxenburg (Austria); Fuss, Sabine, E-mail: fuss@mcc-berlin.net [International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, 2067 Laxenburg (Austria); Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change, Torgauer Str. 12-15, 10829 Berlin (Germany)

    2015-04-15

    This article proposes a new method to assess the health impact of populations exposed to fine particles (PM{sub 2.5}) during their whole lifetime, which is suitable for comparative analysis of energy scenarios. The method takes into account the variation of particle concentrations over time as well as the evolution of population cohorts. Its capabilities are demonstrated for two pathways of European energy system development up to 2050: the Baseline (BL) and the Low Carbon, Maximum Renewable Power (LC-MRP). These pathways were combined with three sets of assumptions about emission control measures: Current Legislation (CLE), Fixed Emission Factors (FEFs), and the Maximum Technically Feasible Reductions (MTFRs). Analysis was carried out for 45 European countries. Average PM{sub 2.5} concentration over Europe in the LC-MRP/CLE scenario is reduced by 58% compared with the BL/FEF case. Health impacts (expressed in days of loss of life expectancy) decrease by 21%. For the LC-MRP/MTFR scenario the average PM{sub 2.5} concentration is reduced by 85% and the health impact by 34%. The methodology was developed within the framework of the EU's FP7 EnerGEO project and was implemented in the Platform of Integrated Assessment (PIA). The Platform enables performing health impact assessments for various energy scenarios. - Highlights: • A new method to assess health impact of PM{sub 2.5} for energy scenarios is proposed. • An algorithm to compute Loss of Life Expectancy attributable to exposure to PM{sub 2.5} is depicted. • Its capabilities are demonstrated for two pathways of European energy system development up to 2050. • Integrating the temporal evolution of PM{sub 2.5} is of great interest for assessing the potential impacts of energy scenarios.

  20. Use of risk assessment in the nuclear industry with specific reference to the Australian situation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cameron, R.F.; Willers, A.

    2001-01-01

    The use of risk assessment in the nuclear industry began in the 1970s as a complementary approach to the deterministic methods used to assess the safety of nuclear facilities. As experience with the theory and application of probabilistic methods has grown, so too has its application. In the last decade, the use of probabilistic safety assessment has become commonplace for all phases of the life of a plant, including siting, design, construction, operation and decommissioning. In the particular case of operation of plant, the use of a 'living' safety case or probabilistic safety assessment, building upon operational experience, is becoming more widespread, both as an operational tool and as a basis for communication with the regulator. In the case of deciding upon a site for a proposed reactor, use is also being made of probabilistic methods in defining the effect of design parameters. Going hand in hand with this increased use of risk based methods has been the development of assessment criteria against which to judge the results being obtained from the risk analyses. This paper reviews the use of risk assessment in the light of the need for acceptability criteria and shows how these tools are applied in the Australian nuclear industry, with specific reference to the probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) performed of HIFAR

  1. Rapid Global River Flood Risk Assessment under Climate and Socioeconomic Scenarios: An Extreme Case of Eurasian region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwak, Young-joo; Magome, Jun; Hasegawa, Akira; Iwami, Yoichi

    2017-04-01

    Causing widespread devastation with massive economic damage and loss of human lives, flood disasters hamper economic growth and accelerate poverty particularly in developing countries. Globally, this trend will likely continue due to increase in flood magnitude and lack of preparedness for extreme events. In line with risk reduction efforts since the early 21st century, the monitors and governors of global river floods should pay attention to international scientific and policy communities for support to facilitate evidence-based policy making with a special interest in long-term changes due to climate change and socio-economic effects. Although advanced hydrological inundation models and risk models have been developed to reveal flood risk, hazard, exposure, and vulnerability at a river basin, it is obviously hard to identify the distribution and locations of continent-level flood risk based on national-level data. Therefore, we propose a methodological possibility for rapid global flood risk assessment with the results from its application to the two periods, i.e., Present (from 1980 to 2004) and Future (from 2075 to 2099). The method is particularly designed to effectively simplify complexities of a hazard area by calculating the differential inundation depth using GFID2M (global flood inundation depth 2-dimension model), despite low data availability. In this research, we addressed the question of which parts in the Eurasian region (8E to 180E, 0N to 60N) can be found as high-risk areas in terms of exposed population and economy in case of a 50-year return period flood. Economic losses were estimated according to the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenario, and the flood scale was defined using the annual maximum daily river discharge under the extreme conditions of climate change simulated with MRI-AGCM3.2S based on the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP8.5) emissions scenario. As a preliminary result, the total potential economic loss in the

  2. A global assessment of gross and net land change dynamics for current conditions and future scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Fuchs

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available The consideration of gross land changes, meaning all area gains and losses within a pixel or administrative unit (e.g. country, plays an essential role in the estimation of total land changes. Gross land changes affect the magnitude of total land changes, which feeds back to the attribution of biogeochemical and biophysical processes related to climate change in Earth system models. Global empirical studies on gross land changes are currently lacking. Whilst the relevance of gross changes for global change has been indicated in the literature, it is not accounted for in future land change scenarios. In this study, we extract gross and net land change dynamics from large-scale and high-resolution (30–100 m remote sensing products to create a new global gross and net change dataset. Subsequently, we developed an approach to integrate our empirically derived gross and net changes with the results of future simulation models by accounting for the gross and net change addressed by the land use model and the gross and net change that is below the resolution of modelling. Based on our empirical data, we found that gross land change within 0.5° grid cells was substantially larger than net changes in all parts of the world. As 0.5° grid cells are a standard resolution of Earth system models, this leads to an underestimation of the amount of change. This finding contradicts earlier studies, which assumed gross land changes to appear in shifting cultivation areas only. Applied in a future scenario, the consideration of gross land changes led to approximately 50 % more land changes globally compared to a net land change representation. Gross land changes were most important in heterogeneous land systems with multiple land uses (e.g. shifting cultivation, smallholder farming, and agro-forestry systems. Moreover, the importance of gross changes decreased over time due to further polarization and intensification of land use. Our results serve as

  3. Assessing Storm Vulnerabilities and Resilience Strategies: A Scenario-Method for Engaging Stakeholders of Public/Private Maritime Infrastructure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Becker, A.; Burroughs, R.

    2014-12-01

    This presentation discusses a new method to assess vulnerability and resilience strategies for stakeholders of coastal-dependent transportation infrastructure, such as seaports. Much coastal infrastructure faces increasing risk to extreme events resulting from sea level rise and tropical storms. As seen after Hurricane Sandy, natural disasters result in economic costs, damages to the environment, and negative consequences on resident's quality of life. In the coming decades, tough decisions will need to be made about investment measures to protect critical infrastructure. Coastal communities will need to weigh the costs and benefits of a new storm barrier, for example, against those of retrofitting, elevating or simply doing nothing. These decisions require understanding the priorities and concerns of stakeholders. For ports, these include shippers, insurers, tenants, and ultimate consumers of the port cargo on a local and global scale, all of whom have a stake in addressing port vulnerabilities.Decision-makers in exposed coastal areas need tools to understand stakeholders concerns and perceptions of potential resilience strategies. For ports, they need answers to: 1) How will stakeholders be affected? 2) What strategies could be implemented to build resilience? 3) How effectively would the strategies mitigate stakeholder concerns? 4) What level of time and investment would strategies require? 5) Which stakeholders could/should take responsibility? Our stakeholder-based method provides answers to questions 1-3 and forms the basis for further work to address 4 and 5.Together with an expert group, we developed a pilot study for stakeholders of Rhode Island's critical energy port, the Port of Providence. Our method uses a plausible extreme storm scenario with localized visualizations and a portfolio of potential resilience strategies. We tailor a multi-criteria decision analysis tool and, through a series of workshops, we use the storm scenario, resilience strategies

  4. Women referred for occupational risk assessment in pregnancy have no increased risk of adverse obstetric outcomes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bidstrup, Signe Brøker; Kaerlev, Linda; Thulstrup, Ane Marie

    2015-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: Our aim was to study the association between pregnant women's referral status for occupational risk assessment, and their risk of preterm delivery (METHODS: In a cohort study, 1,202 deliveries among....../or that the occupational risk assessment and counselling of pregnant women are preventing these selected adverse pregnancy outcomes. FUNDING: The Research Unit at Department of Occupational and Environmental Medicine at Bispebjerg Hospital supported the study financially. TRIAL REGISTRATION: not relevant. The study.......72-1.17). CONCLUSION: The women who are referred for occupational risk assessment at two large occupational university departments are not at an increased risk of preterm birth or of delivering low birth weight children. This may reflect that reproductive hazards in Danish workplaces are limited and...

  5. Women referred for occupational risk assessment in pregnancy have no increased risk of adverse obstetric outcomes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bidstrup, Signe Brøker; Kaerlev, Linda; Thulstrup, Ane Marie

    2015-01-01

    .72-1.17). CONCLUSION: The women who are referred for occupational risk assessment at two large occupational university departments are not at an increased risk of preterm birth or of delivering low birth weight children. This may reflect that reproductive hazards in Danish workplaces are limited and....../or that the occupational risk assessment and counselling of pregnant women are preventing these selected adverse pregnancy outcomes. FUNDING: The Research Unit at Department of Occupational and Environmental Medicine at Bispebjerg Hospital supported the study financially. TRIAL REGISTRATION: not relevant. The study......INTRODUCTION: Our aim was to study the association between pregnant women's referral status for occupational risk assessment, and their risk of preterm delivery (

  6. The Bamberg Trucking Game: A Paradigm for Assessing the Detection of Win-Win Solutions in a Potential Conflict Scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nalis, Dario; Schütz, Astrid; Pastukhov, Alexander

    2018-01-01

    In win-win solutions, all parties benefit more from the solution than they would if they each pursued their own individual goals. Such solutions are beneficial at individual and collective levels and thus represent optimal solutions. Win-win solutions are desirable but often difficult to find. To allow the study of individual differences and situational factors that help or hinder the detection of win-win solutions, we created a paradigm that fills a gap in the repertoire of psychological instruments used to assess collaboration, cooperation, negotiation, and prosocial behavior. The new paradigm differs from previous ones in two aspects: (a) In existing paradigms that focus on social motivation, possible strategies are evident, whereas we focused here on the question of whether people can detect the solution and thus disentangle ability from motivation, (b) Paradigms that focus on cooperation typically entail a risk associated with the partner's defection, whereas cooperation in our paradigm is not associated with risk. We adjusted the Trucking Game-a method for assessing bargaining-to include a situation in which two parties can help each other achieve their respective goals and thus benefit over and above the pursuit of individual goals or compromising. We tested scenario-based and interaction-based versions with samples of 154 and 112 participants, respectively. Almost one third of the participants or dyads found the win-win solution. General mental abilities were not related to detecting the win-win solution in either version. The paradigm provides a way to extend research on cooperation and conflict and can thus be useful for research and training.

  7. The Bamberg Trucking Game: A Paradigm for Assessing the Detection of Win–Win Solutions in a Potential Conflict Scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dario Nalis

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available In win–win solutions, all parties benefit more from the solution than they would if they each pursued their own individual goals. Such solutions are beneficial at individual and collective levels and thus represent optimal solutions. Win–win solutions are desirable but often difficult to find. To allow the study of individual differences and situational factors that help or hinder the detection of win–win solutions, we created a paradigm that fills a gap in the repertoire of psychological instruments used to assess collaboration, cooperation, negotiation, and prosocial behavior. The new paradigm differs from previous ones in two aspects: (a In existing paradigms that focus on social motivation, possible strategies are evident, whereas we focused here on the question of whether people can detect the solution and thus disentangle ability from motivation, (b Paradigms that focus on cooperation typically entail a risk associated with the partner’s defection, whereas cooperation in our paradigm is not associated with risk. We adjusted the Trucking Game—a method for assessing bargaining—to include a situation in which two parties can help each other achieve their respective goals and thus benefit over and above the pursuit of individual goals or compromising. We tested scenario-based and interaction-based versions with samples of 154 and 112 participants, respectively. Almost one third of the participants or dyads found the win–win solution. General mental abilities were not related to detecting the win–win solution in either version. The paradigm provides a way to extend research on cooperation and conflict and can thus be useful for research and training.

  8. Assessment of air quality microsensors versus reference methods: The EuNetAir joint exercise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borrego, C.; Costa, A. M.; Ginja, J.; Amorim, M.; Coutinho, M.; Karatzas, K.; Sioumis, Th.; Katsifarakis, N.; Konstantinidis, K.; De Vito, S.; Esposito, E.; Smith, P.; André, N.; Gérard, P.; Francis, L. A.; Castell, N.; Schneider, P.; Viana, M.; Minguillón, M. C.; Reimringer, W.; Otjes, R. P.; von Sicard, O.; Pohle, R.; Elen, B.; Suriano, D.; Pfister, V.; Prato, M.; Dipinto, S.; Penza, M.

    2016-12-01

    The 1st EuNetAir Air Quality Joint Intercomparison Exercise organized in Aveiro (Portugal) from 13th-27th October 2014, focused on the evaluation and assessment of environmental gas, particulate matter (PM) and meteorological microsensors, versus standard air quality reference methods through an experimental urban air quality monitoring campaign. The IDAD-Institute of Environment and Development Air Quality Mobile Laboratory was placed at an urban traffic location in the city centre of Aveiro to conduct continuous measurements with standard equipment and reference analysers for CO, NOx, O3, SO2, PM10, PM2.5, temperature, humidity, wind speed and direction, solar radiation and precipitation. The comparison of the sensor data generated by different microsensor-systems installed side-by-side with reference analysers, contributes to the assessment of the performance and the accuracy of microsensor-systems in a real-world context, and supports their calibration and further development. The overall performance of the sensors in terms of their statistical metrics and measurement profile indicates significant differences in the results depending on the platform and on the sensors considered. In terms of pollutants, some promising results were observed for O3 (r2: 0.12-0.77), CO (r2: 0.53-0.87), and NO2 (r2: 0.02-0.89). For PM (r2: 0.07-0.36) and SO2 (r2: 0.09-0.20) the results show a poor performance with low correlation coefficients between the reference and microsensor measurements. These field observations under specific environmental conditions suggest that the relevant microsensor platforms, if supported by the proper post processing and data modelling tools, have enormous potential for new strategies in air quality control.

  9. Customized Internal Reference Controls for Improved Assessment of Circulating MicroRNAs in Disease.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kenny Schlosser

    Full Text Available Altered levels of circulating extracellular miRNA in plasma and serum have shown promise as non-invasive biomarkers of disease. However, unlike the assessment of cellular miRNA levels for which there are accepted housekeeping genes, analogous reference controls for normalization of circulating miRNA are lacking. Here, we provide an approach to identify and validate circulating miRNA reference controls on a de novo basis, and demonstrate the advantages of these customized internal controls in different disease settings. Importantly, these internal controls overcome key limitations of external spike-in controls.Using a global RT-qPCR screen of 1066 miRNAs in plasma from pulmonary hypertension patients (PAH and healthy subjects as a case example, we identified a large pool of initial candidate miRNAs that were systematically ranked according to their plasma level stability using a predefined algorithm. The performance of the top candidates was validated against multiple comparators, and in a second independent cohort of PAH and control subjects. The broader utility of this approach was demonstrated in a completely different disease setting with 372 miRNAs screened in plasma from septic shock patients and healthy controls.Normalization of data with specific internal reference controls significantly reduced the overall variation in circulating miRNA levels between subjects (relative to raw data, provided a more balanced distribution of up- and down-regulated miRNAs, replicated the results obtained by the benchmark geometric averaging of all detected miRNAs, and outperformed the commonly used external spike-in strategy.We demonstrate the feasibility of identifying circulating reference controls that can reduce extraneous technical variations, and improve the assessment of disease-related changes in plasma miRNA levels. This study provides a novel conceptual framework that addresses a critical and previously unmet need if circulating miRNAs are to

  10. Reference manual for toxicity and exposure assessment and risk characterization. CERCLA Baseline Risk Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1995-03-01

    The Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA, 1980) (CERCLA or Superfund) was enacted to provide a program for identifying and responding to releases of hazardous substances into the environment. The Superfund Amendments and Reauthorization Act (SARA, 1986) was enacted to strengthen CERCLA by requiring that site clean-ups be permanent, and that they use treatments that significantly reduce the volume, toxicity, or mobility of hazardous pollutants. The National Oil and Hazardous Substances Pollution Contingency Plan (NCP) (USEPA, 1985; USEPA, 1990) implements the CERCLA statute, presenting a process for (1) identifying and prioritizing sites requiring remediation and (2) assessing the extent of remedial action required at each site. The process includes performing two studies: a Remedial Investigation (RI) to evaluate the nature, extent, and expected consequences of site contamination, and a Feasibility Study (FS) to select an appropriate remedial alternative adequate to reduce such risks to acceptable levels. An integral part of the RI is the evaluation of human health risks posed by hazardous substance releases. This risk evaluation serves a number of purposes within the overall context of the RI/FS process, the most essential of which is to provide an understanding of ``baseline`` risks posed by a given site. Baseline risks are those risks that would exist if no remediation or institutional controls are applied at a site. This document was written to (1) guide risk assessors through the process of interpreting EPA BRA policy and (2) help risk assessors to discuss EPA policy with regulators, decision makers, and stakeholders as it relates to conditions at a particular DOE site.

  11. Reference manual for toxicity and exposure assessment and risk characterization. CERCLA Baseline Risk Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-03-01

    The Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA, 1980) (CERCLA or Superfund) was enacted to provide a program for identifying and responding to releases of hazardous substances into the environment. The Superfund Amendments and Reauthorization Act (SARA, 1986) was enacted to strengthen CERCLA by requiring that site clean-ups be permanent, and that they use treatments that significantly reduce the volume, toxicity, or mobility of hazardous pollutants. The National Oil and Hazardous Substances Pollution Contingency Plan (NCP) (USEPA, 1985; USEPA, 1990) implements the CERCLA statute, presenting a process for (1) identifying and prioritizing sites requiring remediation and (2) assessing the extent of remedial action required at each site. The process includes performing two studies: a Remedial Investigation (RI) to evaluate the nature, extent, and expected consequences of site contamination, and a Feasibility Study (FS) to select an appropriate remedial alternative adequate to reduce such risks to acceptable levels. An integral part of the RI is the evaluation of human health risks posed by hazardous substance releases. This risk evaluation serves a number of purposes within the overall context of the RI/FS process, the most essential of which is to provide an understanding of ''baseline'' risks posed by a given site. Baseline risks are those risks that would exist if no remediation or institutional controls are applied at a site. This document was written to (1) guide risk assessors through the process of interpreting EPA BRA policy and (2) help risk assessors to discuss EPA policy with regulators, decision makers, and stakeholders as it relates to conditions at a particular DOE site

  12. Future Extreme Heat Scenarios to Enable the Assessment of Climate Impacts on Public Health over the Coterminous U.S.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quattrochi, Dale A.; Crosson, William L.; Al-Hamdan, Mohammad Z.; Estes, Maurice G., Jr.

    2013-01-01

    In the United States, extreme heat is the most deadly weather-related hazard. In the face of a warming climate and urbanization, which contributes to local-scale urban heat islands, it is very likely that extreme heat events (EHEs) will become more common and more severe in the U.S. This research seeks to provide historical and future measures of climate-driven extreme heat events to enable assessments of the impacts of heat on public health over the coterminous U.S. We use atmospheric temperature and humidity information from meteorological reanalysis and from Global Climate Models (GCMs) to provide data on past and future heat events. The focus of research is on providing assessments of the magnitude, frequency and geographic distribution of extreme heat in the U.S. to facilitate public health studies. In our approach, long-term climate change is captured with GCM outputs, and the temporal and spatial characteristics of short-term extremes are represented by the reanalysis data. Two future time horizons for 2040 and 2090 are compared to the recent past period of 1981- 2000. We characterize regional-scale temperature and humidity conditions using GCM outputs for two climate change scenarios (A2 and A1B) defined in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). For each future period, 20 years of multi-model GCM outputs are analyzed to develop a 'heat stress climatology' based on statistics of extreme heat indicators. Differences between the two future and the past period are used to define temperature and humidity changes on a monthly time scale and regional spatial scale. These changes are combined with the historical meteorological data, which is hourly and at a spatial scale (12 km), to create future climate realizations. From these realizations, we compute the daily heat stress measures and related spatially-specific climatological fields, such as the mean annual number of days above certain thresholds of maximum and minimum air temperatures, heat indices

  13. [Reference curves for assessing the physical growth of male Wistar rats].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cossio-Bolaños, Marco; Gómez Campos, Rossana; Vargas Vitoria, Rodrigo; Hochmuller Fogaça, Rosalvo Tadeu; de Arruda, Miguel

    2013-11-01

    Wistar rats are one of the most popular strains routinely used for research in the laboratory to serve as an important research tool, so it requires strict control of variables such as age, sex and body weight, and Thus to extrapolate the results to the human model. To develop reference curves for assessing the physical growth of male Wistar rats according to chronological age and somatic maturation from a non-invasive. The subjects studied were 731 male Wistar rats transversely. We assessed age, body weight and body surface. LMS method was used to construct percentile curves based on weight and somatic maturation. The proposed physical growth curves are used to track the physical growth and nutritional status diagnosis of male Wistar rats. Budgets by cutting points are: P3, P10, P25, P50, P75, P90 and P97. The results suggest that scientists from different areas can use such references, in order to extrapolate somatic growth phases of the laboratory rat and the human model is a non-invasive alternative to assess growth and nutritional status. Copyright AULA MEDICA EDICIONES 2013. Published by AULA MEDICA. All rights reserved.

  14. Modified-BRISQUE as no reference image quality assessment for structural MR images.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chow, Li Sze; Rajagopal, Heshalini

    2017-11-01

    An effective and practical Image Quality Assessment (IQA) model is needed to assess the image quality produced from any new hardware or software in MRI. A highly competitive No Reference - IQA (NR - IQA) model called Blind/Referenceless Image Spatial Quality Evaluator (BRISQUE) initially designed for natural images were modified to evaluate structural MR images. The BRISQUE model measures the image quality by using the locally normalized luminance coefficients, which were used to calculate the image features. The modified-BRISQUE model trained a new regression model using MR image features and Difference Mean Opinion Score (DMOS) from 775 MR images. Two types of benchmarks: objective and subjective assessments were used as performance evaluators for both original and modified-BRISQUE models. There was a high correlation between the modified-BRISQUE with both benchmarks, and they were higher than those for the original BRISQUE. There was a significant percentage improvement in their correlation values. The modified-BRISQUE was statistically better than the original BRISQUE. The modified-BRISQUE model can accurately measure the image quality of MR images. It is a practical NR-IQA model for MR images without using reference images. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Reference Values for Assessment of Unilateral Limb Lymphedema with Dual-Energy X-Ray Absorptiometry

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gjorup, Caroline A; Hendel, Helle W; Klausen, Tobias W

    2018-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: The clinical assessment of unilateral limb lymphedema is commonly based on measurements of interlimb volume differences. Reference values for interlimb percentage differences of the volume, fat mass, and lean mass measured with dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) scan are, however...... is calculated as follows: ("Limb-of-interest"-contralateral)/contralateral × 100. The interlimb percentage differences for the limb-of-interest were stratified to upper (according to handedness) and lower limbs and categorized as none/mild, moderate, or severe, respectively, based on whether the value is below...

  16. AMAT guidelines. Reference document for the IAEA Ageing Management Assessment Teams (AMATs)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1999-01-01

    Effective ageing management is an important element for ensuring the safety of nuclear power plant. The IAEA Ageing Management Assessment Team (AMAT) programme provides advice and assistance to utilities or individual NPPs to strengthen and enhance the effectiveness of ageing management programs (AMPs). Such AMPs are required by an increasing number of safety utilities and implemented by an increasing number of utilities, often as a part of NPP life or life cycle management programs that involve the integration of ageing management and economic planning. The guidelines in this report are primarily intended for IAEA-led AMAT team members as a basic structure and common reference for peer reviews of AMPs

  17. Comparison of intravascular ultrasound and angiographic assessement of coronary reference segment size in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Lisette Okkels; Thayssen, Per; Mintz, Gary S

    2008-01-01

    During percutaneous coronary intervention, the reference segment is assessed angiographically. This report described the discrepancy between angiographic and intravascular ultrasound (IVUS) assessment of reference segment size in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus. Preintervention IVUS was used...... to study 62 de novo lesions in 41 patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus. The lesion site was the image slice with the smallest lumen cross-sectional area (CSA). The proximal and distal reference segments were the most normal-looking segments within 5 mm proximal and distal to the lesion. Plaque burden...... was measured as plaque CSA/external elastic membrane (EEM) CSA. Using IVUS, the reference lumen diameter was 2.80 +/- 0.42 mm and the reference EEM diameter was 4.17 +/- 0.56 mm. The angiographic reference diameter was 2.63 +/- 0.36 mm. Mean difference between the IVUS EEM diameter and angiographic reference...

  18. Current scenario

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    First page Back Continue Last page Overview Graphics. Current scenario. India , like other parts of the world, is also facing the problem of increase in the incidence of drug resistance in tuberculosis. Multi-drug resistance (MDR, resistance to RIF & INH) and extensively drug resistant strains (X-DR, resistance to RIF, INH, FQs ...

  19. Forecasts of county-level land uses under three future scenarios: a technical document supporting the Forest Service 2010 RPA Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    David N. Wear

    2011-01-01

    Accurately forecasting future forest conditions and the implications for ecosystem services depends on understanding land use dynamics. In support of the 2010 Renewable Resources Planning Act (RPA) Assessment, we forecast changes in land uses for the coterminous United States in response to three scenarios. Our land use models forecast urbanization in response to the...

  20. Evaluation of a weather generator-based method for statistically downscaling non-stationary climate scenarios for impact assessment at a point scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    The non-stationarity is a major concern for statistically downscaling climate change scenarios for impact assessment. This study is to evaluate whether a statistical downscaling method is fully applicable to generate daily precipitation under non-stationary conditions in a wide range of climatic zo...

  1. The Epidemic of Neonatal Abstinence Syndrome, Historical References of Its’ Origins, Assessment, and Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Enrique Gomez-Pomar

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Neonatal abstinence syndrome (NAS refers to a constellation of signs that are present in some newborn infants resulting from the abrupt cessation of passive transfer of maternal opioids used during pregnancy. The classic NAS refers to infants born to mothers who used opioids during pregnancy, but the term has broadened to include infants whose mothers have used or abused other psychoactive substances during pregnancy that contribute to the expression of the syndrome. Pregnant women who use opioids do so illicitly, and/or as medically prescribed for pain relief, and/or as medication assisted treatment for opioid dependence. The first case of NAS in infants and the subsequent treatment (or lack thereof was reported in 1875 and was called Congenital Morphinism. By 2012, the incidence of NAS increased to more than 30 per 1,000 hospital live births, along with an increase in the number of infants being treated pharmacologically for NAS, resulting in an increase in the length of stay and healthcare expenses. We present historical references on NAS, the various factors and events that led to its increasing prevalence and today’s current epidemic. We also review the current tools to assess infants with NAS and treatment options in its management.

  2. Assessment of the swallowing function in older individuals referred to myocardial revascularization surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dantas, Mara de Oliveira Rodrigues Luiz; Auler, José Otávio Costa; Andrade, Claudia Regina Furquim de

    2010-01-01

    Swallowing evaluation of older individuals with coronary disease referred to heart surgery. To identify the characteristics of the swallowing function in older individuals referred to myocardial revascularization surgery (MR), using an evaluating protocol composed by a water test, cervical auscultation and pulse oximetry. The Assessment Protocol for Dysphagia Risk through a Combined Swallowing test and Vital Signs monitoring was used (PADTC)--measurements of HR and SpO2 (heart rate and oxygen saturation), water swallowing test with 1, 3, 5, 10, 15 e 20 ml, measurement of respiratory rate and cervical auscultation. The electronic stethoscope was used to analyze the number of swallows, response time and swallowing sound classification. In the Research Group (RG) older individuals with heart disease who were referred to MR were included. In the Control Group (CG) healthy older individuals were included. 38 older individuals were evaluated in the RG (mean age 68 years). In the CG, 30 older individuals were evaluated (mean age 70 years). There was a significant difference for the swallowing response time in older individuals with heart disease who presented HR below 60: swallowing response was shorter for 3 ml, 10 ml, 15 ml e 20 ml. HR was lower for individuals with heart disease. No significant difference was found between the groups for the other analyzed parameters. Older individuals with heart disease presented differences in the swallowing function when compared to healthy older individuals. Older individuals with heart disease presented alterations in the temporal coordination between breathing and swallowing, thus indicating risk for dysphagia.

  3. Comprehensive Assessment of Struggling Learners Referred to a Graduate Medical Education Remediation Program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warburton, Karen M; Goren, Eric; Dine, C Jessica

    2017-12-01

    Implementation of the Next Accreditation System has provided a standardized framework for identifying learners not meeting milestones, but there is as yet no corresponding framework for remediation. We developed a comprehensive assessment process that allows correct diagnosis of a struggling learner's deficit(s) to promote successful remediation. At the University of Pennsylvania, resident learners within the Department of Medicine who are not meeting milestones are referred to the Early Intervention Remediation Committee (EIRC). The EIRC, composed of 14 faculty members with expertise in remediation, uses a standardized process to assess learners' deficits. These faculty members categorize primary deficits as follows: medical knowledge, clinical reasoning, organization and efficiency, professionalism, and communication skills. The standardized process of assessment includes an analysis of the learner's file, direct communication with evaluators, an interview focused on learner perception of the problem, screening for underlying medical or psychosocial issues, and a review of systems for deficits in the 6 core competencies. Participants were surveyed after participating in this process. Over a 2-year period, the EIRC assessed and developed remediation plans for 4% of learners (14 of a total 342). Following remediation and reassessment, the identified problems were satisfactorily resolved in all cases with no disciplinary action. While the process was time intensive, an average of 45 hours per learner, the majority of faculty and residents rated it as positive and beneficial. This structured assessment process identifies targeted areas for remediation and adds to the tools available to Clinical Competency Committees.

  4. Assessing models of speciation under different biogeographic scenarios; An empirical study using multi-locus and RNA-seq analyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Taylor; Tollis, Marc; Hsieh, PingHsun; Gutenkunst, Ryan N.; Liu, Zhen; Kusumi, Kenro; Culver, Melanie; Murphy, Robert W.

    2016-01-01

    Evolutionary biology often seeks to decipher the drivers of speciation, and much debate persists over the relative importance of isolation and gene flow in the formation of new species. Genetic studies of closely related species can assess if gene flow was present during speciation, because signatures of past introgression often persist in the genome. We test hypotheses on which mechanisms of speciation drove diversity among three distinct lineages of desert tortoise in the genus Gopherus. These lineages offer a powerful system to study speciation, because different biogeographic patterns (physical vs. ecological segregation) are observed at opposing ends of their distributions. We use 82 samples collected from 38 sites, representing the entire species' distribution and generate sequence data for mtDNA and four nuclear loci. A multilocus phylogenetic analysis in *BEAST estimates the species tree. RNA-seq data yield 20,126 synonymous variants from 7665 contigs from two individuals of each of the three lineages. Analyses of these data using the demographic inference package ∂a∂i serve to test the null hypothesis of no gene flow during divergence. The best-fit demographic model for the three taxa is concordant with the *BEAST species tree, and the ∂a∂i analysis does not indicate gene flow among any of the three lineages during their divergence. These analyses suggest that divergence among the lineages occurred in the absence of gene flow and in this scenario the genetic signature of ecological isolation (parapatric model) cannot be differentiated from geographic isolation (allopatric model).

  5. Supporting energy initiatives in small communities by linking visions with energy scenarios and multi-criteria assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Trutnevyte, Evelina; Stauffacher, Michael; Scholz, Roland W.

    2011-01-01

    Many decisions about future energy systems in small communities are based on the visions of several key actors about the ideal-type system. Although meaningful, such visions may not inclusively represent the objectives of all relevant actors. Moreover, the visions are mostly intuitively judged by these actors and reflect their experiences and concerns. Yet, analytical expertise provides essential information about the required decisions and their consequences. We argue that coming up with a number of alternative visions about a future energy system and addressing these visions from both intuitive and analytical perspectives leads to better-quality decisions. This paper presents a case study in the small Swiss community of Urnäsch, where actors from practice and academia collaborated in a transdisciplinary process to address the future energy system. Visions of these actors about the ideal-type energy system were linked both with energy scenarios that analytically specified options to implement these visions and with stakeholder-based multi-criteria assessment of the consequences. As a result, most of the involved actors adjusted their initial vision preferences. Thus, we believe this approach could lead to capacity building and formation of stable, informed preferences, which are necessary to support a transition in the coming decades. - Highlights: ► Linking energy visions with realistic options and their consequences. ► Novel methodology developed to support this. ► Applied in a case study whereby stakeholders revised visions in light of results. ► Energy initiatives in small communities are facilitated and supported analytically.

  6. Biomass Scenario Model Scenario Library: Definitions, Construction, and Description

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Inman, D.; Vimmerstedt, L.; Bush, B.; Peterson, S.

    2014-04-01

    Understanding the development of the biofuels industry in the United States is important to policymakers and industry. The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a system dynamics model of the biomass-to-biofuels system that can be used to explore policy effects on biofuels development. Because of the complexity of the model, as well as the wide range of possible future conditions that affect biofuels industry development, we have not developed a single reference case but instead developed a set of specific scenarios that provide various contexts for our analyses. The purpose of this report is to describe the scenarios that comprise the BSM scenario library. At present, we have the following policy-focused scenarios in our library: minimal policies, ethanol-focused policies, equal access to policies, output-focused policies, technological diversity focused, and the point-of-production- focused. This report describes each scenario, its policy settings, and general insights gained through use of the scenarios in analytic studies.

  7. Probabilistic calculations and sensitivity analysis of parameters for a reference biosphere model assessing the potential exposure of a population to radionuclides from a deep geological repository

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Staudt, Christian; Kaiser, Jan Christian [Helmholtz Zentrum Muenchen, Institute of Radiation Protection, Munich (Germany); Proehl, Gerhard [International Atomic Energy Agency, Division of Radiation, Transport and Waste Safety, Wagramerstrasse 5, 1400 Vienna (Austria)

    2014-07-01

    Radioecological models are used to assess the exposure of hypothetical populations to radionuclides. Potential radionuclide sources are deep geological repositories for high level radioactive waste. Assessment time frames are long since releases from those repositories are only expected in the far future, and radionuclide migration to the geosphere biosphere interface will take additional time. Due to the long time frames, climate conditions at the repository site will change, leading to changing exposure pathways and model parameters. To identify climate dependent changes in exposure in the far field of a deep geological repository a range of reference biosphere models representing climate analogues for potential future climate states at a German site were developed. In this approach, model scenarios are developed for different contemporary climate states. It is assumed that the exposure pathways and parameters of the contemporary biosphere in the far field of the repository will change to be similar to those at the analogue sites. Since current climate models cannot predict climate developments over the assessment time frame of 1 million years, analogues for a range of realistically possible future climate conditions were selected. These climate states range from steppe to permafrost climate. As model endpoint Biosphere Dose conversion factors (BDCF) are calculated. The radionuclide specific BDCF describe the exposure of a population to radionuclides entering the biosphere in near surface ground water. The BDCF are subject to uncertainties in the exposure pathways and model parameters. In the presented work, probabilistic and sensitivity analysis was used to assess the influence of model parameter uncertainties on the BDCF and the relevance of individual parameters for the model result. This was done for the long half-live radionuclides Cs-135, I-129 and U-238. In addition to this, BDCF distributions for nine climate reference regions and several scenarios were

  8. Patient and referring health care provider satisfaction with a physiotherapy spinal triage assessment service

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bath B

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Brenna Bath1, Bonnie Janzen21School of Physical Therapy, College of Medicine, University of Saskatchewan, 2Community Health and Epidemiology, College of Medicine, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, CanadaPurpose: To evaluate participant and referring care provider satisfaction associated with a spinal triage assessment service delivered by physiotherapists in collaboration with orthopedic surgeons.Methods: People with low back-related complaints were recruited from those referred to a spinal triage assessment program delivered by physiotherapists. Measures of patient and provider satisfaction were completed at approximately 4 weeks after the assessment. The satisfaction surveys were analyzed quantitatively with descriptive statistics and qualitatively with an inductive thematic approach of open and axial coding.Results: A total of 108/115 participants completed the posttest satisfaction survey. Sixty-six percent of participants were “very satisfied” with the service and 55% were “very satisfied” with the recommendations that were made. Only 18% of referring care providers completed the satisfaction survey and 90.5% of those were “very satisfied” with the recommendations. Sixty-one participants and 14 care providers provided comments which revealed a diverse range of themes which were coded into positive (ie, understanding the problem, communication, customer service, efficiency, and management direction, negative (ie, lack of detail, time to follow-up, cost and neutral related to the triage service, and an “other” category unrelated to the service (ie, chronic symptoms, comorbidities, and limited access to health care.Conclusion: The quantitative results of the participant survey demonstrated very high levels of satisfaction with the service and slightly less satisfaction with the recommendations that were made. Satisfaction of referring care providers with the recommendations and report was also high, but given

  9. A biological tool to assess flow connectivity in reference temporary streams from the Mediterranean Basin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cid, N; Verkaik, I; García-Roger, E M; Rieradevall, M; Bonada, N; Sánchez-Montoya, M M; Gómez, R; Suárez, M L; Vidal-Abarca, M R; Demartini, D; Buffagni, A; Erba, S; Karaouzas, I; Skoulikidis, N; Prat, N

    2016-01-01

    Many streams in the Mediterranean Basin have temporary flow regimes. While timing for seasonal drought is predictable, they undergo strong inter-annual variability in flow intensity. This high hydrological variability and associated ecological responses challenge the ecological status assessment of temporary streams, particularly when setting reference conditions. This study examined the effects of flow connectivity in aquatic macroinvertebrates from seven reference temporary streams across the Mediterranean Basin where hydrological variability and flow conditions are well studied. We tested for the effect of flow cessation on two streamflow indices and on community composition, and, by performing random forest and classification tree analyses we identified important biological predictors for classifying the aquatic state either as flowing or disconnected pools. Flow cessation was critical for one of the streamflow indices studied and for community composition. Macroinvertebrate families found to be important for classifying the aquatic state were Hydrophilidae, Simuliidae, Hydropsychidae, Planorbiidae, Heptageniidae and Gerridae. For biological traits, trait categories associated to feeding habits, food, locomotion and substrate relation were the most important and provided more accurate predictions compared to taxonomy. A combination of selected metrics and associated thresholds based on the most important biological predictors (i.e. Bio-AS Tool) were proposed in order to assess the aquatic state in reference temporary streams, especially in the absence of hydrological data. Although further development is needed, the tool can be of particular interest for monitoring, restoration, and conservation purposes, representing an important step towards an adequate management of temporary rivers not only in the Mediterranean Basin but also in other regions vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. A biological tool to assess flow connectivity in reference temporary streams from the Mediterranean Basin

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cid, N., E-mail: ncid@ub.edu [Grup de Recerca “Freshwater Ecology and Management (FEM)”, Departament d' Ecologia, Universitat de Barcelona, Catalonia (Spain); Verkaik, I. [Grup de Recerca “Freshwater Ecology and Management (FEM)”, Departament d' Ecologia, Universitat de Barcelona, Catalonia (Spain); García-Roger, E.M. [Grup de Recerca “Freshwater Ecology and Management (FEM)”, Departament d' Ecologia, Universitat de Barcelona, Catalonia (Spain); Institut Cavanilles de Biodiversitat i Biologia Evolutiva, Universitat de València (Spain); Rieradevall, M.; Bonada, N. [Grup de Recerca “Freshwater Ecology and Management (FEM)”, Departament d' Ecologia, Universitat de Barcelona, Catalonia (Spain); Sánchez-Montoya, M.M. [Department of Ecology and Hydrology, Regional Campus of International Excellence “Campus Mare Nostrum”—University of Murcia (Spain); Leibniz-Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries (IGB), Berlin (Germany); Gómez, R.; Suárez, M.L.; Vidal-Abarca, M.R. [Department of Ecology and Hydrology, Regional Campus of International Excellence “Campus Mare Nostrum”—University of Murcia (Spain); Demartini, D.; Buffagni, A.; Erba, S. [Instituto di Ricerca Sulle Acque (CNR-IRSA) (Italy); Karaouzas, I.; Skoulikidis, N. [Hellenic Center for Marine Research (HCMR) (Greece); Prat, N. [Grup de Recerca “Freshwater Ecology and Management (FEM)”, Departament d' Ecologia, Universitat de Barcelona, Catalonia (Spain)

    2016-01-01

    Many streams in the Mediterranean Basin have temporary flow regimes. While timing for seasonal drought is predictable, they undergo strong inter-annual variability in flow intensity. This high hydrological variability and associated ecological responses challenge the ecological status assessment of temporary streams, particularly when setting reference conditions. This study examined the effects of flow connectivity in aquatic macroinvertebrates from seven reference temporary streams across the Mediterranean Basin where hydrological variability and flow conditions are well studied. We tested for the effect of flow cessation on two streamflow indices and on community composition, and, by performing random forest and classification tree analyses we identified important biological predictors for classifying the aquatic state either as flowing or disconnected pools. Flow cessation was critical for one of the streamflow indices studied and for community composition. Macroinvertebrate families found to be important for classifying the aquatic state were Hydrophilidae, Simuliidae, Hydropsychidae, Planorbiidae, Heptageniidae and Gerridae. For biological traits, trait categories associated to feeding habits, food, locomotion and substrate relation were the most important and provided more accurate predictions compared to taxonomy. A combination of selected metrics and associated thresholds based on the most important biological predictors (i.e. Bio-AS Tool) were proposed in order to assess the aquatic state in reference temporary streams, especially in the absence of hydrological data. Although further development is needed, the tool can be of particular interest for monitoring, restoration, and conservation purposes, representing an important step towards an adequate management of temporary rivers not only in the Mediterranean Basin but also in other regions vulnerable to the effects of climate change. - Highlights: • The effect of flow connectivity on macroinvertebrate

  11. ASSESSMENT OF BOTTOM-OF-ATMOSPHERE REFLECTANCE IN LIDAR DATA AS REFERENCE FOR HYPERSPECTRAL IMAGERY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Roncat

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available While airborne lidar has confirmed its leading role in delivering high-resolution 3D topographic information during the last decade, its radiometric potential has not yet been fully exploited. However, with the increasing availability of commercial lidar systems which (a make use of full-waveform information and (b operate at several wavelengths simultaneously, this potential is increasing as well. Radiometric calibration of the full-waveform information mentioned before allows for the derivation of physical target surface parameters such as the backscatter coefficient and a diffuse reflectance value at bottom of atmosphere (BOA, i.e. the target surface. With lidar being an active remote sensing technique, these parameters can be derived from lidar data itself, accompanied by the measurement or estimation of reference data for diffuse reflectance. In contrast to this, such a radiometric calibration for passive hyperspectral imagery (HSI requires the knowledge and/or estimation of much more unknowns. However, in case of corresponding wavelength(s radiometrically calibrated lidar datasets can deliver an areawide reference for BOA reflectance. This paper presents criteria to check where the assumption of diffuse BOA reflectance behaviour is fulfilled and how these criteria are assessed in lidar data; the assessment is illustrated by an extended lidar dataset. Moreover, for this lidar dataset and an HSI dataset recorded over the same area, the corresponding reflectance values are compared for different surface types.

  12. Assessment of locomotion behavior in adult Zebrafish after acute exposure to different pharmacological reference compounds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pankaj Gupta

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Objectives: The objective of the present study was to assess locomotor behavior of adult zebrafish after acute exposure to different pharmacological reference compounds. Materials and Methods: Adult zebrafish of 4-5-months-old were exposed to different concentrations of known reference compounds for 15 min. The test was conducted separately for each drug concentration as well as control. Locomotor activity parameters viz. distance travelled, speed, total mobile time, and total immobile time were recorded for each animal during the exposure period. Results: Out of 11 compounds tested, nine compounds showed decrease in locomotor behavior with significant changes in distance travelled, speed, total mobile time, and total immobile time. Caffeine exhibited biphasic response in locomotion behavior, while scopolamine failed to induce any significant changes. Conclusion: In view of the above findings, these results suggested that exposure of adult zebrafish with different known compounds produce the expected changes in the locomotion behavior; therefore, adult zebrafish can be used an alternative approach for the assessment of new chemical entities for their effect on locomotor behavior.

  13. Application of reference materials for quality assessment in neutron activation analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Obrusnik, I.; Eckschlager, K.

    1993-01-01

    It is generally accepted that an analytical procedure can be regarded as an information production system yielding information on the composition of the analyzed sample. Thus, information theory can be useful and the quantities characterizing the information properties of an analytical method may be applied not only as evaluation criteria but also as objective functions in the optimization. The usability of information theory is demonstrated on the example of neutron activation analysis. Both precision and bias of NAA results are taken into account together with the possible use of reference materials for quality assessment. The influence of the above-mentioned parameters on information properties such as information gain and profitability of NAA results is discussed in detail. It has been proved that information theory is especially useful in choosing suitable reference materials for the quality assessment of routine analytical procedures not only with respect to matrix and analyte concentration in the sample but also to concentrations and uncertainties of certified values in the CRM used. In the extreme trace analysis, CRMs with relatively large uncertainties and very low certified concentrations can still yield rather high information gain of results. (author) 14 refs.; 9 figs

  14. Integrated assessment and scenarios simulation of urban water security system in the southwest of China with system dynamics analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yin, Su; Dongjie, Guan; Weici, Su; Weijun, Gao

    2017-11-01

    The demand for global freshwater is growing, while global freshwater available for human use is limited within a certain time and space. Its security has significant impacts on both the socio-economic system and ecological system. Recently, studies have focused on the urban water security system (UWSS) in terms of either water quantity or water quality. In this study, water resources, water environment, and water disaster issues in the UWSS were combined to establish an evaluation index system with system dynamics (SD) and geographic information systems (GIS). The GIS method performs qualitative analysis from the perspective of the spatial dimension; meanwhile, the SD method performs quantitative calculation about related water security problems from the perspective of the temporal dimension. We established a UWSS model for Guizhou province, China to analyze influencing factors, main driving factors, and system variation law, by using the SD method. We simulated the water security system from 2005 to 2025 under four scenarios (Guiyang scenario, Zunyi scenario, Bijie scenario and combined scenario). The results demonstrate that: (1) the severity of water security in cities is ranked as follows: three cities are secure in Guizhou province, four cities are in basic security and two cities are in a situation of insecurity from the spatial dimension of GIS through water security synthesis; and (2) the major driving factors of UWSS in Guizhou province include agricultural irrigation water demand, soil and water losses area, a ratio increase to the standard of water quality, and investment in environmental protection. A combined scenario is the best solution for UWSS by 2025 in Guizhou province under the four scenarios from the temporal dimension of SD. The results of this study provide a useful suggestion for the management of freshwater for the cities of Guizhou province in southwest China.

  15. Expected dose for the early failure scenario classes in the 2008 performance assessment for the proposed high-level radioactive waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Helton, J.C.; Hansen, C.W.; Sallaberry, C.J.

    2014-01-01

    Extensive work has been carried out by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) in the development of a proposed geologic repository at Yucca Mountain (YM), Nevada, for the disposal of high-level radioactive waste. In support of this development and an associated license application to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), the DOE completed an extensive performance assessment (PA) for the proposed YM repository in 2008. This presentation describes the determination of expected dose to the reasonably maximally exposed individual (RMEI) specified in the NRC regulations for the YM repository for the early waste package (WP) failure scenario class and the early drip shield (DS) failure scenario class in the 2008 YM PA. The following topics are addressed: (i) properties of the early failure scenario classes and the determination of dose and expected dose the RMEI, (ii) expected dose and uncertainty in expected dose to the RMEI from the early WP failure scenario class, (iii) expected dose and uncertainty in expected dose to the RMEI from the early DS failure scenario class, (iv) expected dose and uncertainty in expected dose to the RMEI from the combined early WP and early DS failure scenario class with and without the inclusion of failures resulting from nominal processes, and (v) uncertainty in the occurrence of early failure scenario classes. The present article is part of a special issue of Reliability Engineering and System Safety devoted to the 2008 YM PA; additional articles in the issue describe other aspects of the 2008 YM PA. - Highlights: • Extensive work has been carried out by the U.S. DOE in the development of a proposed geologic repository at Yucca Mountain (YM), Nevada, for the disposal of high-level radioactive waste. • Properties of the early failure scenario classes (i.e. early waste package failure and early drip shield failure) in the 2008 YM performance assessment are described. • Determination of dose, expected dose and expected (mean

  16. Scenario-visualization for the assessment of perceived green space qualities at the urban-rural fringe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lange, Eckart; Hehl-Lange, Sigrid; Brewer, Mark J

    2008-11-01

    The provision of green space is increasingly being perceived as an important factor for quality of life. However, green spaces often face high developmental pressure. The main objective of this study is to investigate a prospective approach to green space planning by combining three-dimensional (3D) visualization of green space scenarios and survey techniques to facilitate improved participation of the public. Aside from the 'Status quo', scenarios 'Agriculture', 'Recreation', 'Nature conservation' and 'Wind turbines' are visualized in three dimensions. In order to test responses, a survey was conducted both in print format and on the Internet. Overall, 49 different visualizations that belong to one of the scenarios were available in the survey and were rated according to the perceived esthetic, recreational and ecological values. The highest rated scenes include vegetation elements such as meadows with orchards, single trees, shrubs or forest. The least attractive scenes are those where buildings are highly dominant or where there are no vegetation elements. Based on the ratings for the individual images and on the corresponding scenarios, our study shows that there is high potential for improving the existing landscape. All suggested changes are either rated about equal to or considerably higher than the status quo, with the scenario 'Nature conservation' receiving the highest scores.

  17. Earthquake induced liquefaction hazard, probability and risk assessment in the city of Kolkata, India: its historical perspective and deterministic scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nath, Sankar Kumar; Srivastava, Nishtha; Ghatak, Chitralekha; Adhikari, Manik Das; Ghosh, Ambarish; Sinha Ray, S. P.

    2018-01-01

    Liquefaction-induced ground failure is one amongst the leading causes of infrastructure damage due to the impact of large earthquakes in unconsolidated, non-cohesive, water saturated alluvial terrains. The city of Kolkata is located on the potentially liquefiable alluvial fan deposits of Ganga-Bramhaputra-Meghna Delta system with subsurface litho-stratigraphic sequence comprising of varying percentages of clay, cohesionless silt, sand, and gravel interbedded with decomposed wood and peat. Additionally, the region has moderately shallow groundwater condition especially in the post-monsoon seasons. In view of burgeoning population, there had been unplanned expansion of settlements in the hazardous geological, geomorphological, and hydrological conditions exposing the city to severe liquefaction hazard. The 1897 Shillong and 1934 Bihar-Nepal earthquakes both of M w 8.1 reportedly induced Modified Mercalli Intensity of IV-V and VI-VII respectively in the city reportedly triggering widespread to sporadic liquefaction condition with surface manifestation of sand boils, lateral spreading, ground subsidence, etc., thus posing a strong case for liquefaction potential analysis in the terrain. With the motivation of assessing seismic hazard, vulnerability, and risk of the city of Kolkata through a consorted federal funding stipulated for all the metros and upstart urban centers in India located in BIS seismic zones III, IV, and V with population more than one million, an attempt has been made here to understand the liquefaction susceptibility condition of Kolkata under the impact of earthquake loading employing modern multivariate techniques and also to predict deterministic liquefaction scenario of the city in the event of a probabilistic seismic hazard condition with 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years and a return period of 475 years. We conducted in-depth geophysical and geotechnical investigations in the city encompassing 435 km2 area. The stochastically

  18. Preliminary assessment of the health and environmental effects of coal utilization in the midwest. Volume I. Energy scenarios, technology characterizations, air and water resource impacts, and health effects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    1977-01-01

    An initial evaluation of the major health and environmental issues associated with increased coal use in the six midwestern states of Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, and Wisconsin is presented. Using an integrated assessment approach, the evaluation proceeds from a base-line scenario of energy demand and facility siting for the period 1975 to 2020. Emphasis is placed on impacts from coal extraction, land reclamation, coal combustion for electrical generation, and coal gasification. The range of potential impacts and constraints is illustrated by a second scenario that represents an expected upper limit for coal utilization in Illinois. Included are: (1) a characterization of the energy demand and siting scenarios, coal related technologies, and coal resources, and (2) the related impacts on air quality, water availability, water quality, and human health.

  19. Full-reference quality assessment of stereoscopic images by learning binocular receptive field properties.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shao, Feng; Li, Kemeng; Lin, Weisi; Jiang, Gangyi; Yu, Mei; Dai, Qionghai

    2015-10-01

    Quality assessment of 3D images encounters more challenges than its 2D counterparts. Directly applying 2D image quality metrics is not the solution. In this paper, we propose a new full-reference quality assessment for stereoscopic images by learning binocular receptive field properties to be more in line with human visual perception. To be more specific, in the training phase, we learn a multiscale dictionary from the training database, so that the latent structure of images can be represented as a set of basis vectors. In the quality estimation phase, we compute sparse feature similarity index based on the estimated sparse coefficient vectors by considering their phase difference and amplitude difference, and compute global luminance similarity index by considering luminance changes. The final quality score is obtained by incorporating binocular combination based on sparse energy and sparse complexity. Experimental results on five public 3D image quality assessment databases demonstrate that in comparison with the most related existing methods, the devised algorithm achieves high consistency with subjective assessment.

  20. Psychopathology of the General Population Referred by Primary Care Physicians for Urgent Assessment in Psychiatric Hospitals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Judith McLenan

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Objective: The aim of this study was to evaluate the type, severity and progression of psychiatric pathologies in a sample of 372 outpatients (age range 18–65 years referred by their primary general practitioners (GPs to an Urgent Referral Team (URT based in a psychiatric hospital in Aberdeen, Scotland. This team offers immediate appointments (1- to 7-day delays for rapid assessments and early interventions to the outpatients referred by their primary family doctors.Method: One-sample t-test and z statistic were used for data analysis. From the total population, a convenience sample of 40 people was selected and assessed to evaluate whether follow-up appointments after the first visit could reduce the severity of suicidal ideation, depression and anxiety in the outpatients seen by the URT. A two-sample t-test and a Wilcoxon signed-rank test were used to assess the variations in the scores during the follow-up visits.Results: We found a statistically significant prevalence of depressive disorders, comorbid with anxiety at first presentation in people who were females, white, never married, living with a partner, not studying and not in paid employment. The common presentation of borderline personality disorder and dysthymia in this population underscores its vulnerability to major socioeconomic challenges.Conclusion: The data confirmed the impact that primary care cooperation with psychiatric hospitals can have on the psychiatric system, and as a reflection, on the population’s mental health and well-being. In fact, active cooperation and early diagnosis and intervention will help detect cases at risk in the general population and reduce admissions into hospitals.

  1. Hydrological and water quality impact assessment of a Mediterranean limno-reservoir under climate change and land use management scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Molina Navarro, Eugenio; Trolle, Dennis; Martínez-Pérez, Silvia

    2014-01-01

    Water scarcity and water pollution constitute a big challenge for water managers in the Mediterranean region today and will exacerbate in a projected future warmer world, making a holistic approach for water resources management at the catchment scale essential. We expanded the Soil and Water......-reservoir, especially during summer, complicating the fulfillment of its purposes. Most of the scenarios also predicted a deterioration of trophic conditions in the limno-reservoir. Fertilization and soil erosion were the main factors affecting nitrate and total phosphorus concentrations. Combined climate and land use...... change scenarios showed noticeable synergistic effects on nutrients exports, relative to running the scenarios individually. While the impact of fertilization on nitrate export is projected to be reduced with warming in most cases, an additional 13% increase in the total phosphorus export is expected...

  2. Using Scenarios to Assess Policy Mixes for Resource Efficiency and Eco-Innovation in Different Fiscal Policy Frameworks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laurent Bontoux

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available There is no longer any doubt that the European Union needs to manage a transition towards a sustainable economy and society. The complexity of such an enterprise is creating major challenges that require a future oriented systemic approach, looking at the EU economy and society as a whole, and going beyond current agendas and policies. The purpose of the JRC foresight study “2035: Paths towards a sustainable EU economy” was to explore how this could be possible. Resource efficiency was at the core of the reflection. This created a context where the fiscal framework was perceived by the experts involved as essential in driving (or hindering the evolution towards a more sustainable future. Societal values (individualistic or collaborative were selected as the other axis around which to construct four scenarios. A large number of other drivers of change were taken into account to construct scenarios of a sufficient depth and detail to generate a systemic understanding. The scenarios were used in an original way to help experts identify which policy mixes would be best adapted to push each scenario towards a more sustainable future, while respecting its own logic and constraints. For each scenario, 6 policy domains considered the most relevant were selected among more than 50. Research and innovation, new business models and education were considered important for all four scenarios. The other domains were natural resources management, regulation, ethics, employment, transparency, governance, social protection, and systems integration. The study illustrates how powerful a policy framework which is fiscally supportive of environmental sustainability can be in supporting resource efficiency and that this can be achieved in very different ways depending on the prevailing social values. It also shows how a combination of actions in other policy areas can be used to drive sustainability further. In sum, this work illustrates how the creative use of

  3. Generic Screening Models for Assessing Exposures to the Public and ICRP Reference Animals and Plants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yankovich, Tamara L.; Proehl, Gerhard; Telleria, Diego [International Atomic Energy Agency, P.O. Box 100, 1400 Vienna (Austria); Berkovskyy, Volodymyr [Ukrainian Radiation Protection Institute (RPI), 53, Melnikova Street, 04050, Kiev (Ukraine)

    2014-07-01

    With the update of the IAEA Fundamental Safety Principles (SF-1) stating the objective to protect people and the environment from harmful effects of ionizing radiation, it has been necessary to update International Basic Safety Standards (BSS) on Radiation Protection and Safety of Radiation Sources and the underlying safety guides and technical documents to provide guidance on how this could be achieved in practice. The current paper provides an update on the status and plans to revise the IAEA Safety Report 'Generic Models for Use in Assessing the Impact of Discharges of Radioactive Substances to the Environment' (SRS 19) that was published in 2001. The models of SRS 19 (2001), which was focused on assessment of exposures to the public, is being expanded into three volumes that provide methodologies for screening assessments for the public, as well as for flora and fauna. The revised SRS 19 guide will ultimately facilitate the application of screening models for different levels of assessment using updated parameter values from database that have been developed as part of the IAEA's EMRAS (Environmental Modelling for Radiation Safety) and EMRAS II international model validation programmes. The scope of the revised SRS 19 covers prospective screening assessment of doses to the representative person and Reference Animals and Plants (RAPs), and will provide simple and robust assessment methods for radiological assessment related to planning and design, applying a graded approach. Tabulated screening coefficients and environmental dilution factors will be included for 825 radionuclides. The screening coefficients are developed assuming equilibrium conditions; they can be used to assess radiological impacts arising from routine discharges of radionuclides to terrestrial and aquatic receptors for planned exposure situations. Volumes 1 and 2 of the revised SRS 19 are at an advanced stage of completion and are focused on 'Screening Assessment of Public

  4. A Risk Metric Assessment of Scenario-Based Market Risk Measures for Volatility and Risk Estimation: Evidence from Emerging Markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sitima Innocent

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The study evaluated the sensitivity of the Value- at- Risk (VaR and Expected Shortfalls (ES with respect to portfolio allocation in emerging markets with an index portfolio of a developed market. This study utilised different models for VaR and ES techniques using various scenario-based models such as Covariance Methods, Historical Simulation and the GARCH (1, 1 for the predictive ability of these models in both relatively stable market conditions and extreme market conditions. The results showed that Expected Shortfall has less risk tolerance than VaR based on the same scenario-based market risk measures

  5. Learning a No-Reference Quality Assessment Model of Enhanced Images With Big Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gu, Ke; Tao, Dacheng; Qiao, Jun-Fei; Lin, Weisi

    2018-04-01

    In this paper, we investigate into the problem of image quality assessment (IQA) and enhancement via machine learning. This issue has long attracted a wide range of attention in computational intelligence and image processing communities, since, for many practical applications, e.g., object detection and recognition, raw images are usually needed to be appropriately enhanced to raise the visual quality (e.g., visibility and contrast). In fact, proper enhancement can noticeably improve the quality of input images, even better than originally captured images, which are generally thought to be of the best quality. In this paper, we present two most important contributions. The first contribution is to develop a new no-reference (NR) IQA model. Given an image, our quality measure first extracts 17 features through analysis of contrast, sharpness, brightness and more, and then yields a measure of visual quality using a regression module, which is learned with big-data training samples that are much bigger than the size of relevant image data sets. The results of experiments on nine data sets validate the superiority and efficiency of our blind metric compared with typical state-of-the-art full-reference, reduced-reference and NA IQA methods. The second contribution is that a robust image enhancement framework is established based on quality optimization. For an input image, by the guidance of the proposed NR-IQA measure, we conduct histogram modification to successively rectify image brightness and contrast to a proper level. Thorough tests demonstrate that our framework can well enhance natural images, low-contrast images, low-light images, and dehazed images. The source code will be released at https://sites.google.com/site/guke198701/publications.

  6. Results of extended plant tests using more realistic exposure scenarios for improving environmental risk assessment of veterinary pharmaceuticals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richter, Elisabeth; Berkner, Silvia; Ebert, Ina; Förster, Bernhard; Graf, Nadin; Herrchen, Monika; Kühnen, Ute; Römbke, Jörg; Simon, Markus

    2016-01-01

    Residues of veterinary medicinal products (VMPs) enter the environment via application of manure onto agricultural areas where in particular antibiotics can cause phytotoxicity. Terrestrial plant tests according to OECD guideline 208 are part of the environmental risk assessment of VMPs. However, this standard approach might not be appropriate for VMPs which form non-extractable residues or transformation products in manure and manure-amended soil. Therefore, a new test design with a more realistic exposure scenario via manure application is needed. This paper presents an extended plant test and its experimental verification with the veterinary antibiotics florfenicol and tylosin tartrate. With each substance, plant tests with four different types of application were conducted: standard tests according to OECD 208 and three tests with application of test substance via spiked manure either without storage, aerobically incubated, or anaerobically incubated for different time periods. In standard tests, the lowest NOEC was tylosin tartrate. Pre-tests showed that plant growth was not impaired at 22-g fresh manure/kg dry soil, which therefore was used for the final tests. The application of the test substances via freshly spiked as well as via aerobically incubated manure had no significant influence on the test results. Application of florfenicol via anaerobically incubated manure increased the EC10 by a factor up to 282 and 540 for half-maximum and for maximum incubation period, respectively. For tylosin tartrate, this factor amounted to 64 at half-maximum and 61 at maximum incubation period. The reduction of phytotoxicity was generally stronger when using cattle manure than pig manure and particularly in tests with cattle manure phytotoxicity decreased over the incubation period. The verification of the extended plant test showed that seedling emergence and growth are comparable to a standard OECD 208 test and reliable effect concentrations could be established. As

  7. Venous, Arterialized-Venous, or Capillary Glucose Reference Measurements for the Accuracy Assessment of a Continuous Glucose Monitoring System

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kropff, Jort; van Steen, Sigrid C.; deGraaff, Peter; Chan, Man W.; van Amstel, Rombout B. E.; DeVries, J. Hans

    2017-01-01

    Background: Different reference methods are used for the accuracy assessment of continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) systems. The effect of using venous, arterialized-venous, or capillary reference measurements on CGM accuracy is unclear. Methods: We evaluated 21 individuals with type 1 diabetes

  8. Frame-of-Reference Training: Establishing Reliable Assessment of Teaching Effectiveness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newman, Lori R; Brodsky, Dara; Jones, Richard N; Schwartzstein, Richard M; Atkins, Katharyn Meredith; Roberts, David H

    2016-01-01

    Frame-of-reference (FOR) training has been used successfully to teach faculty how to produce accurate and reliable workplace-based ratings when assessing a performance. We engaged 21 Harvard Medical School faculty members in our pilot and implementation studies to determine the effectiveness of using FOR training to assess health professionals' teaching performances. All faculty were novices at rating their peers' teaching effectiveness. Before FOR training, we asked participants to evaluate a recorded lecture using a criterion-based peer assessment of medical lecturing instrument. At the start of training, we discussed the instrument and emphasized its precise behavioral standards. During training, participants practiced rating lectures and received immediate feedback on how well they categorized and scored performances as compared with expert-derived scores of the same lectures. At the conclusion of the training, we asked participants to rate a post-training recorded lecture to determine agreement with the experts' scores. Participants and experts had greater rating agreement for the post-training lecture compared with the pretraining lecture. Through this investigation, we determined that FOR training is a feasible method to teach faculty how to accurately and reliably assess medical lectures. Medical school instructors and continuing education presenters should have the opportunity to be observed and receive feedback from trained peer observers. Our results show that it is possible to use FOR rater training to teach peer observers how to accurately rate medical lectures. The process is time efficient and offers the prospect for assessment and feedback beyond traditional learner evaluation of instruction.

  9. Deep supervised dictionary learning for no-reference image quality assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Yuge; Liu, Xuesong; Tian, Xiang; Zhou, Fan; Chen, Yaowu; Jiang, Rongxin

    2018-03-01

    We propose a deep convolutional neural network (CNN) for general no-reference image quality assessment (NR-IQA), i.e., accurate prediction of image quality without a reference image. The proposed model consists of three components such as a local feature extractor that is a fully CNN, an encoding module with an inherent dictionary that aggregates local features to output a fixed-length global quality-aware image representation, and a regression module that maps the representation to an image quality score. Our model can be trained in an end-to-end manner, and all of the parameters, including the weights of the convolutional layers, the dictionary, and the regression weights, are simultaneously learned from the loss function. In addition, the model can predict quality scores for input images of arbitrary sizes in a single step. We tested our method on commonly used image quality databases and showed that its performance is comparable with that of state-of-the-art general-purpose NR-IQA algorithms.

  10. A No Reference Image Quality Assessment Metric Based on Visual Perception

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yan Fu

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Nowadays, how to evaluate image quality reasonably is a basic and challenging problem. In view of the present no reference evaluation methods, they cannot reflect the human visual perception of image quality accurately. In this paper, we propose an efficient general-purpose no reference image quality assessment (NRIQA method based on visual perception, and effectively integrates human visual characteristics into the NRIQA fields. First, a novel algorithm for salient region extraction is presented. Two characteristics graphs of texture and edging of the original image are added to the Itti model. Due to the normalized luminance coefficients of natural images obey the generalized Gauss probability distribution, we utilize this characteristic to extract statistical features in the regions of interest (ROI and regions of non-interest respectively. Then, the extracted features are fused to be an input to establish the support vector regression (SVR model. Finally, the IQA model obtained by training is used to predict the quality of the image. Experimental results show that this method has good predictive ability, and the evaluation effect is better than existing classical algorithms. Moreover, the predicted results are more consistent with human subjective perception, which can accurately reflect the human visual perception to image quality.

  11. Technology, safety, and costs of decommissioning reference light-water reactors following postulated accidents. Appendices