WorldWideScience

Sample records for assessment reference scenario

  1. Reference Scenario Forecasting: A New Approach to Transport Project Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang; Leleur, Steen; Skougaard, Britt Zoëga

    2010-01-01

    distribution functions. The latter have been placed and ultimately simulated on the inaccuracies of determining demand forecasts, i.e. leading to the travel time savings and ticket revenues of the project. Finally, RSF makes use of scenario forecasting where trend scenarios such as economic growth and level...... of cross-border integration are investigated. The latter was relevant as RSF is demonstrated by a case example concerning the fixed link between Elsinore (Denmark) and Helsingborg (Sweden) and calculations are performed in the CBA-DK decision support model....

  2. 2009 reference case scenario : Canadian energy demand and supply to 2020 : an energy market assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2009-07-01

    The National Energy Board regulates the construction and operation of interprovincial and international oil and gas pipelines and power lines as well as the tolls and tariffs for the pipelines under its jurisdictions. The import and export of natural gas is also regulated by the NEB. The NEB examined the possible energy futures that might unfold for Canadians up to the year 2020. The factors that affect the supply of crude oil, natural gas, liquefied natural gas, electricity and coal in the short term were examined to determine the outlook for deliverability through 2020. The growing demand for energy was reviewed along with the adequacy of future energy supplies, and related issues of emerging technologies, energy infrastructure and energy exports. This assessment provided separate production outlooks for hydrocarbons, electricity and coal and outlined the key uncertainties to the supply outlook. The likely impact of recent economic, energy and policy trends on energy demand and supply were considered. It was concluded that energy markets in Canada will continue to function well. Energy prices will provide appropriate market signals for the development of energy resources to meet Canadian and export demand. A significant portion of Canadian demand for energy will be met by fossil fuels. However, the demand to move towards greener energy fuels should result in fewer greenhouse gas emissions. 1 tab., 27 figs.

  3. Reference life cycle assessment scenarios for manure management in the Baltic Sea Regions - An assessment covering six animal production, five BSR countries, and four manure types

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hamelin, Lorie; Baky, A; Cano-Bernal, J;

    One major pre-condition for assessing a manure management technique in a whole system or LCA-approach is to define a reference system against which this technique can be assessed. This report thus presents and details the establishment of such reference systems, comprising eight different manure...... of the manure for all main stages of the manure continuum (e.g. ex-animal, ex-housing, ex-storage). This report was prepared as part of Baltic Manure Work Package 5 - Assessing Sustainability of Manure Technology Chains....

  4. Biomass Scenario Model Documentation: Data and References

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lin, Y.; Newes, E.; Bush, B.; Peterson, S.; Stright, D.

    2013-05-01

    The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a system dynamics model that represents the entire biomass-to-biofuels supply chain, from feedstock to fuel use. The BSM is a complex model that has been used for extensive analyses; the model and its results can be better understood if input data used for initialization and calibration are well-characterized. It has been carefully validated and calibrated against the available data, with data gaps filled in using expert opinion and internally consistent assumed values. Most of the main data sources that feed into the model are recognized as baseline values by the industry. This report documents data sources and references in Version 2 of the BSM (BSM2), which only contains the ethanol pathway, although subsequent versions of the BSM contain multiple conversion pathways. The BSM2 contains over 12,000 total input values, with 506 distinct variables. Many of the variables are opportunities for the user to define scenarios, while others are simply used to initialize a stock, such as the initial number of biorefineries. However, around 35% of the distinct variables are defined by external sources, such as models or reports. The focus of this report is to provide insight into which sources are most influential in each area of the supply chain.

  5. Scenarios for coastal vulnerability assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicholls, Robert J.; Woodroffe, Colin D.; Burkett, Virginia; Hay, John; Wong, Poh Poh; Nurse, Leonard; Wolanski, Eric; McLusky, Donald S.

    2011-01-01

    Coastal vulnerability assessments tend to focus mainly on climate change and especially on sea-level rise. Assessment of the influence of nonclimatic environmental change or socioeconomic change is less well developed and these drivers are often completely ignored. Given that the most profound coastal changes of the twentieth century due to nonclimate drivers are likely to continue through the twenty-first century, this is a major omission. It may result in not only overstating the importance of climate change but also overlooking significant interactions of climate change and other drivers. To support the development of policies relating to climate change and coastal management, integrated assessments of climatic change in coastal areas are required, including the effects of all the relevant drivers. This chapter explores the development of scenarios (or "plausible futures") of relevant climate and nonclimate drivers that can be used for coastal analysis, with an emphasis on the nonclimate drivers. It shows the importance of analyzing the impacts of climate change and sea-level rise in a broader context of coastal change and all its drivers. This will improve the analysis of impacts, key vulnerabilities, and adaptation needs and, hence, inform climate and coastal policy. Stakeholder engagement is important in the development of scenarios, and the underlying assumptions need to be explicit, transparent, and open to scientific debate concerning their uncertainties/realism and likelihood.

  6. EXAMPLE EXPOSURE SCENARIOS ASSESSMENT TOOL

    Science.gov (United States)

    Exposure scenarios are a tool to help the assessor develop estimates of exposure, dose, and risk. An exposure scenario generally includes facts, data, assumptions, inferences, and sometimes professional judgment about how the exposure takes place. The human physiological and beh...

  7. Uncertainty in Integrated Assessment Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mort Webster

    2005-10-17

    The determination of climate policy is a decision under uncertainty. The uncertainty in future climate change impacts is large, as is the uncertainty in the costs of potential policies. Rational and economically efficient policy choices will therefore seek to balance the expected marginal costs with the expected marginal benefits. This approach requires that the risks of future climate change be assessed. The decision process need not be formal or quantitative for descriptions of the risks to be useful. Whatever the decision procedure, a useful starting point is to have as accurate a description of climate risks as possible. Given the goal of describing uncertainty in future climate change, we need to characterize the uncertainty in the main causes of uncertainty in climate impacts. One of the major drivers of uncertainty in future climate change is the uncertainty in future emissions, both of greenhouse gases and other radiatively important species such as sulfur dioxide. In turn, the drivers of uncertainty in emissions are uncertainties in the determinants of the rate of economic growth and in the technologies of production and how those technologies will change over time. This project uses historical experience and observations from a large number of countries to construct statistical descriptions of variability and correlation in labor productivity growth and in AEEI. The observed variability then provides a basis for constructing probability distributions for these drivers. The variance of uncertainty in growth rates can be further modified by expert judgment if it is believed that future variability will differ from the past. But often, expert judgment is more readily applied to projected median or expected paths through time. Analysis of past variance and covariance provides initial assumptions about future uncertainty for quantities that are less intuitive and difficult for experts to estimate, and these variances can be normalized and then applied to mean

  8. Innovations in science and scenarios for assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kunkel, Kenneth E.; Moss, Richard H.; Parris, Adam

    2016-02-01

    Scenarios for the Third National Climate Assessment (NCA3) were produced for physical climate and sea level rise with substantial input from disciplinary and regional experts. These scenarios underwent extensive review and were published as NOAA Technical Reports. For land use/cover and socioeconomic conditions, scenarios already developed by other agencies were specified for use in the NCA3. Efforts to enhance participatory scenario planning as an assessment activity were pursued, but with limited success. Issues and challenges included the timing of availability of scenarios, the need for guidance in use of scenarios, the need for approaches to nest information within multiple scales and sectors, engagement and collaboration of end users in scenario development, and development of integrated scenarios. Future assessments would benefit from an earlier start to scenarios development, the provision of training in addition to guidance documents, new and flexible approaches for nesting information, ongoing engagement and advice from both scientific and end user communities, and the development of consistent and integrated scenarios.

  9. The iTREN-2030 reference scenario until 2030. Deliverable D4

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fiorello, Davide; De Stasio, Claudia; Koehler, Jonathan; Kraft, Markus; Netwon, Sean; Purwanto, Joko; Schade, Burkhard; Schade, Wolfgang; Szimba, Eckhard

    2009-07-01

    The basic objective of iTREN-2030 is to extend the forecasting and assessment capabilities of the TRANS-TOOLS transport model to the new policy issues arising from the technology, environment and energy fields. This is achieved by couplin the TRANS-TOOLS model with three other models, ASTRA, POLES and TREMOVE covering these new policy issues. The TRANS-TOOLS transport network model has been developed to constitute the reference tool for supporting transport policy in the EU and currently is being developed in several European projects. The scenario set-up to be developed in iTREN-2030 has been modified, so that the projects develops a reference scenario and an integrated scenario. For the reference scenario, the three other modelling tools are harmonised with TRANS-TOOLS and made consistent with each other. This results in a coherent scenario for Europe until 2030 for technology, transport, energy, environment and economic development. The integrated scenario will consider the changing framework conditions until 2030, inparticular the policy pressure coming from climate policy and the increasing scarcity of fossil fuels as well as the impact of the financial and economic crisis. Within the iTREN-2030 project, the overall objective of Work Package 4 (WP4) producing tis deliverable is to develop the reference scenario for the quantitative projections using the four modelling tools involved in the project. The main aims of WP4 are to (a) define a consistent framework for using the different tools in an integrated way; (b) calibrate models with exchanged input to a coherent joint reference; (c) implement external input from WP3 and running models for projections; (d) produce output procedures and templates to facilitate assessment in WP5.

  10. Development of nonproliferation and assessment scenarios.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Finley, Melissa; Barnett, Natalie Beth

    2005-10-01

    The overall objective of the Nonproliferation and Assessments Scenario Development project is to create and analyze potential and plausible scenarios that would lead to an adversary's ability to acquire and use a biological weapon. The initial three months of funding was intended to be used to develop a scenario to demonstrate the efficacy of this analysis methodology; however, it was determined that a substantial amount of preliminary data collection would be needed before a proof of concept scenario could be developed. We have dedicated substantial effort to determine the acquisition pathways for Foot and Mouth Disease Virus, and similar processes will be applied to all pathogens of interest. We have developed a biosecurity assessments database to capture information on adversary skill locales, available skill sets in specific regions, pathogen sources and regulations involved in pathogen acquisition from legitimate facilities. FY06 funding, once released, will be dedicated to data collection on acquisition, production and dissemination requirements on a pathogen basis. Once pathogen data has been collected, scenarios will be developed and scored.

  11. Probabilistic Climate Scenario Information for Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dairaku, K.; Ueno, G.; Takayabu, I.

    2014-12-01

    Climate information and services for Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability (IAV) Assessments are of great concern. In order to develop probabilistic regional climate information that represents the uncertainty in climate scenario experiments in Japan, we compared the physics ensemble experiments using the 60km global atmospheric model of the Meteorological Research Institute (MRI-AGCM) with multi-model ensemble experiments with global atmospheric-ocean coupled models (CMIP3) of SRES A1b scenario experiments. The MRI-AGCM shows relatively good skills particularly in tropics for temperature and geopotential height. Variability in surface air temperature of physical ensemble experiments with MRI-AGCM was within the range of one standard deviation of the CMIP3 model in the Asia region. On the other hand, the variability of precipitation was relatively well represented compared with the variation of the CMIP3 models. Models which show the similar reproducibility in the present climate shows different future climate change. We couldn't find clear relationships between present climate and future climate change in temperature and precipitation. We develop a new method to produce probabilistic information of climate change scenarios by weighting model ensemble experiments based on a regression model (Krishnamurti et al., Science, 1999). The method can be easily applicable to other regions and other physical quantities, and also to downscale to finer-scale dependent on availability of observation dataset. The prototype of probabilistic information in Japan represents the quantified structural uncertainties of multi-model ensemble experiments of climate change scenarios. Acknowledgments: This study was supported by the SOUSEI Program, funded by Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, Government of Japan.

  12. Assessement of user needs for climate change scenarios in Switzerland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, Andreas; Liniger, Mark; Flückiger-Knutti, Jacqueline

    2016-04-01

    scenarios is, the more important becomes the need of comprehensibility, clarity and support when disseminating new climate scenarios. The survey reveals strongest needs for quantitative information on changes in extremes, an aspect that was handled in a qualitative way only in CH2011. Another cross-sectoral need are physically consistent data in time, space and between several variables. For instance, in agriculture the combination of heat and dryness is an important aspect, while the same is true in the energy sector for the combination of wind speed and global radiation (to assess energy production). The majority of interviewees appreciates to have the new scenarios with respect to the same reference period as in CH2011 due to comparability purposes. The survey also investigated the incorporation of provided scenario uncertainty into the businesses of the users. The survey shows that this largely depends on the type of users: while intensive users often can handle uncertainties, there are a lot of other users that either cannot or purposely do not make use of uncertainty. Results of the user survey will be presented and the consequences for the next generation of Swiss climate change scenarios are discussed.

  13. Assessing supervisory scenarios for interest rate risk

    OpenAIRE

    Lopez, Jose A.; Christensen, Jens H.E.

    2015-01-01

    A new proposal by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision for setting the amount of capital banks must hold against potential losses from interest rate risk uses only a few, very stylized scenarios. Analysis shows the proposed scenarios are extremely unlikely to occur. While they may be appropriate for setting bank capital guidelines, they are much less relevant for everyday risk management. Instead, using a modeling framework with a plausible range of interest rate scenarios would be more...

  14. Climate change and coastal vulnerability assessment: Scenarios for integrated assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicholls, R.J.; Wong, P.P.; Burkett, V.; Woodroffe, C.D.; Hay, J.

    2008-01-01

    Coastal vulnerability assessments still focus mainly on sea-level rise, with less attention paid to other dimensions of climate change. The influence of non-climatic environmental change or socio-economic change is even less considered, and is often completely ignored. Given that the profound coastal changes of the twentieth century are likely to continue through the twenty-first century, this is a major omission, which may overstate the importance of climate change, and may also miss significant interactions of climate change with other non-climate drivers. To better support climate and coastal management policy development, more integrated assessments of climatic change in coastal areas are required, including the significant non-climatic changes. This paper explores the development of relevant climate and non-climate drivers, with an emphasis on the non-climate drivers. While these issues are applicable within any scenario framework, our ideas are illustrated using the widely used SRES scenarios, with both impacts and adaptation being considered. Importantly, scenario development is a process, and the assumptions that are made about future conditions concerning the coast need to be explicit, transparent and open to scientific debate concerning their realism and likelihood. These issues are generic across other sectors. ?? Integrated Research System for Sustainability Science and Springer 2008.

  15. Scenario-based roadmapping assessing nuclear technology development paths for future nuclear energy system scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nuclear energy may play a significant role in a future sustainable energy mix. The transition from today's nuclear energy system towards a future more sustainable nuclear energy system will be dictated by technology availability, energy market competitiveness and capability to achieve sustainability through the nuclear fuel cycle. Various scenarios have been investigated worldwide each with a diverse set of assumptions on the timing and characteristics of new nuclear energy systems. Scenario-based roadmapping combines the dynamic scenario-analysis of nuclear energy systems' futures with the technology roadmap information published and analysed in various technology assessment reports though integrated within the nuclear technology roadmap Nuclear-Roadmap.net. The advantages of this combination is to allow mutual improvement of scenario analysis and nuclear technology roadmapping providing a higher degree of confidence in the assessment of nuclear energy system futures. This paper provides a description of scenario-based roadmapping based on DANESS and Nuclear-Roadmap.net. (author)

  16. DGEMP-OE (2008) Energy Baseline Scenario. Synthesis report; Scenario energetique de reference DGEMP-OE(2008). Rapport de synthese

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2008-07-01

    A 'Business as usual' or 'Baseline' scenario of energy trends to 2020-2030 is produced by France every four years, as requested by the International Energy Agency in order to update the global scenarios published in its World Energy Outlook. Since the most recent scenario of this type was drawn up in 2003-2004, the time has come to renew the effort for the IEA's next in-depth review of French energy policy. Specifically, the DGEMP seeks to predict the future of France's energy situation assuming that no policies or new measures are taken affecting (i.e. improving or deteriorating) the situation other than those already in place or adopted as of 1 January 2008 (in other words, before measures such as those stemming from the Grenelle Environment Forum). On the other hand, it is assumed that change in the energy system is guided by 'conventional wisdom' according to which political options and behaviours by economic units are expected to be 'reasonable'. As a result, even should its projections prove inappropriate, this cannot be considered a 'worst-case' scenario. Indeed, beyond the IEA, this scenario can be used to establish an MEA (Multilateral Environment Agreement) scenario (based on existing measures) for national communications submitted under the U.N. Climate Convention. The scenarios by the 'Energy' Commission, part of the Centre d'Analyse Strategique (CAS), could have been used, particularly since the consultant who worked with the CAS to develop its scenarios was also commissioned by the DGEMP. However, several considerations argued in favour of proceeding separately: - The CAS scenarios drew on the DGEMP's 2004 baseline scenario, even though certain parameters were updated (in particular energy prices). - Moreover, the concept underpinning the DGEMP baseline scenario is that it should to every extent possible remain constant over time to secure continued consensus on this 'reference

  17. DGEMP-OE (2008) Energy Baseline Scenario. Synthesis report; Scenario energetique de reference DGEMP-OE(2008). Rapport de synthese

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2008-07-01

    A 'Business as usual' or 'Baseline' scenario of energy trends to 2020-2030 is produced by France every four years, as requested by the International Energy Agency in order to update the global scenarios published in its World Energy Outlook. Since the most recent scenario of this type was drawn up in 2003-2004, the time has come to renew the effort for the IEA's next in-depth review of French energy policy. Specifically, the DGEMP seeks to predict the future of France's energy situation assuming that no policies or new measures are taken affecting (i.e. improving or deteriorating) the situation other than those already in place or adopted as of 1 January 2008 (in other words, before measures such as those stemming from the Grenelle Environment Forum). On the other hand, it is assumed that change in the energy system is guided by 'conventional wisdom' according to which political options and behaviours by economic units are expected to be 'reasonable'. As a result, even should its projections prove inappropriate, this cannot be considered a 'worst-case' scenario. Indeed, beyond the IEA, this scenario can be used to establish an MEA (Multilateral Environment Agreement) scenario (based on existing measures) for national communications submitted under the U.N. Climate Convention. The scenarios by the 'Energy' Commission, part of the Centre d'Analyse Strategique (CAS), could have been used, particularly since the consultant who worked with the CAS to develop its scenarios was also commissioned by the DGEMP. However, several considerations argued in favour of proceeding separately: - The CAS scenarios drew on the DGEMP's 2004 baseline scenario, even though certain parameters were updated (in particular energy prices). - Moreover, the concept underpinning the DGEMP baseline scenario is that it should to every extent possible remain constant over time to secure continued consensus on this 'reference

  18. Improving risk assessment by defining consistent and reliable system scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Mazzorana

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available During the entire procedure of risk assessment for hydrologic hazards, the selection of consistent and reliable scenarios, constructed in a strictly systematic way, is fundamental for the quality and reproducibility of the results. However, subjective assumptions on relevant impact variables such as sediment transport intensity on the system loading side and weak point response mechanisms repeatedly cause biases in the results, and consequently affect transparency and required quality standards. Furthermore, the system response of mitigation measures to extreme event loadings represents another key variable in hazard assessment, as well as the integral risk management including intervention planning. Formative Scenario Analysis, as a supplement to conventional risk assessment methods, is a technique to construct well-defined sets of assumptions to gain insight into a specific case and the potential system behaviour. By two case studies, carried out (1 to analyse sediment transport dynamics in a torrent section equipped with control measures, and (2 to identify hazards induced by woody debris transport at hydraulic weak points, the applicability of the Formative Scenario Analysis technique is presented. It is argued that during scenario planning in general and with respect to integral risk management in particular, Formative Scenario Analysis allows for the development of reliable and reproducible scenarios in order to design more specifically an application framework for the sustainable assessment of natural hazards impact. The overall aim is to optimise the hazard mapping and zoning procedure by methodologically integrating quantitative and qualitative knowledge.

  19. Methods for Developing Emissions Scenarios for Integrated Assessment Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Prinn, Ronald [MIT; Webster, Mort [MIT

    2007-08-20

    The overall objective of this research was to contribute data and methods to support the future development of new emissions scenarios for integrated assessment of climate change. Specifically, this research had two main objectives: 1. Use historical data on economic growth and energy efficiency changes, and develop probability density functions (PDFs) for the appropriate parameters for two or three commonly used integrated assessment models. 2. Using the parameter distributions developed through the first task and previous work, we will develop methods of designing multi-gas emission scenarios that usefully span the joint uncertainty space in a small number of scenarios. Results on the autonomous energy efficiency improvement (AEEI) parameter are summarized, an uncertainty analysis of elasticities of substitution is described, and the probabilistic emissions scenario approach is presented.

  20. Reference Scenario and Target Identification for Autonomous Active Space Debris Removal Methods

    OpenAIRE

    PETERS, Susanne; Förstner, Roger; Weigel, Martin; Fiedler, Hauke

    2013-01-01

    To alleviate the threat of space debris, a combination of debris mitigation measures and debris environment re- mediation techniques with regard to long-term environ- ment stability is required. Hereby, active space debris removal (ADR), which is subject to this paper, addresses the latter. To evolve a concept for autonomous ADR on a representative foundation, a reference scenario placed in the current Low Earth Orbit environment has been gen- erated. Due to cost-effec...

  1. Assessing global fossil fuel availability in a scenario framework

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bauer, Nico; Hilaire, Jerome; Brecha, Robert J.; Edmonds, James A.; Jiang, Kejun; Kriegler, Elmar; Rogner, Hans-Holger; Sferra, Fabio

    2016-06-01

    This study assesses global, long-term economic availability of coal, oil and gas within the Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP) scenario framework considering alternative assumptions as to highly uncertain future developments of technology, policy and the economy. Diverse sets of trajectories are formulated varying the challenges to mitigation and adaptation of climate change. The potential CO2 emissions from fossil fuels make it a crucial element subject to deep uncertainties. The analysis is based on a well-established data set of cost-quantity combinations that assumes favorable techno-economic developments, but ignores additional constraints on the extraction sector. This study significantly extends that analysis to include alternative assumptions for the fossil fuel sector consistent with the SSP scenario families and applies these filters to the original data set, thus resulting in alternative cumulative fossil fuel availability curves. In a Middle-of-the-Road scenario, low cost fossil fuels embody carbon consistent with a RCP6.0 emission profile, if all the CO2 were emitted freely during the 21st century. In scenarios with high challenges to mitigation, the assumed embodied carbon in low-cost fossil fuels can trigger a RCP8.5 scenario; low mitigation challenges scenarios are still consistent with a RCP4.5 scenario.

  2. Landscape Scenarios and Multifunctionality: Making Land Use Impact Assessment Operational

    OpenAIRE

    Marta Pérez-Soba; Katharina Helming

    2011-01-01

    Ex ante impact assessment can help in structuring the analysis of human-environment interactions thereby supporting land use decision making for sustainable development. The contributions to this special feature focus on some of the challenges of making land use impact assessment operational for policy making. A total of nine papers deal with the needs and uses of assessment tools for policy making at the European level, with the value-based influence in scenario development, and with ex ante...

  3. Identification of objective representative scenarios for hazard assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sandri, Laura; Selva, Jacopo; Costa, Antonio

    2016-04-01

    Assessment of volcanic hazards is typically based on one or a few representative eruptive scenarios, meant as specific combinations of a representative eruptive size, intensity, and vent position, selected with subjective criteria neglecting the full intrinsic natural variability characterizing volcanic processes. In common practice, the size and intensity of such scenarios are taken as representative of wider ranges, here termed "size classes". The approach implicitly or explicitly assumes that the inter-size class variability (among different eruptive size classes) is predominant with respect to the intra-size class variability (i.e., the variability inside each range represented by an eruptive size and intensity), the latter assumed as negligible. So far, no quantitative study has been carried out to verify such an assumption. Here, we first adopt a novel statistical strategy, that accounts for the full natural variability, to quantify the Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Assessment for tephra fallout in the Campania area. Secondly, we compare the results of the new method with those based on few representative scenarios only. On one hand, such comparison allows for determining when the simplified approach is valid, and quantifying the bias introduced in hazard assessment when the full variability is not accounted for. On the other hand, this novel approach opens the way to an objective a posteriori identification of a limited number of representative scenarios, which are necessary when there is no possibility to explore the full variability, as for example for rapid hazard assessment during emergencies, or for short-term hazard assessment.

  4. Scenario

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vidal, Rene Victor Valqui

    1996-01-01

    The main purpose of this paper is to give a synthetic presentation of hte well-known scenario method. Different schools and traditions will be shortly presented. In addition guidelines for hte use of this method will be discussed. Finally, applications will also be outlined as well as some critic...

  5. AN ETHICAL ASSESSMENT OF COMPUTER ETHICS USING SCENARIO APPROACH

    OpenAIRE

    Maslin Masrom; Zuraini Ismail; Ramlah Hussein

    2010-01-01

    Ethics refers to a set of rules that define right and wrong behavior, used for moral decision making. In this case, computer ethics is one of the major issues in information technology (IT) and information system (IS). The ethical behaviour of IT students and professionals need to be studied in an attempt to reduce many unethical practices such as software piracy, hacking, and software intellectual property violations. This paper attempts to address computer-related scenarios that can be used...

  6. Beyond eruptive scenarios: assessing tephra fallout hazard from Neapolitan volcanoes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sandri, Laura; Costa, Antonio; Selva, Jacopo; Tonini, Roberto; Macedonio, Giovanni; Folch, Arnau; Sulpizio, Roberto

    2016-01-01

    Assessment of volcanic hazards is necessary for risk mitigation. Typically, hazard assessment is based on one or a few, subjectively chosen representative eruptive scenarios, which use a specific combination of eruptive sizes and intensities to represent a particular size class of eruption. While such eruptive scenarios use a range of representative members to capture a range of eruptive sizes and intensities in order to reflect a wider size class, a scenario approach neglects to account for the intrinsic variability of volcanic eruptions, and implicitly assumes that inter-class size variability (i.e. size difference between different eruptive size classes) dominates over intra-class size variability (i.e. size difference within an eruptive size class), the latter of which is treated as negligible. So far, no quantitative study has been undertaken to verify such an assumption. Here, we adopt a novel Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Analysis (PVHA) strategy, which accounts for intrinsic eruptive variabilities, to quantify the tephra fallout hazard in the Campania area. We compare the results of the new probabilistic approach with the classical scenario approach. The results allow for determining whether a simplified scenario approach can be considered valid, and for quantifying the bias which arises when full variability is not accounted for. PMID:27067389

  7. Beyond eruptive scenarios: assessing tephra fallout hazard from Neapolitan volcanoes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sandri, Laura; Costa, Antonio; Selva, Jacopo; Tonini, Roberto; Macedonio, Giovanni; Folch, Arnau; Sulpizio, Roberto

    2016-01-01

    Assessment of volcanic hazards is necessary for risk mitigation. Typically, hazard assessment is based on one or a few, subjectively chosen representative eruptive scenarios, which use a specific combination of eruptive sizes and intensities to represent a particular size class of eruption. While such eruptive scenarios use a range of representative members to capture a range of eruptive sizes and intensities in order to reflect a wider size class, a scenario approach neglects to account for the intrinsic variability of volcanic eruptions, and implicitly assumes that inter-class size variability (i.e. size difference between different eruptive size classes) dominates over intra-class size variability (i.e. size difference within an eruptive size class), the latter of which is treated as negligible. So far, no quantitative study has been undertaken to verify such an assumption. Here, we adopt a novel Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Analysis (PVHA) strategy, which accounts for intrinsic eruptive variabilities, to quantify the tephra fallout hazard in the Campania area. We compare the results of the new probabilistic approach with the classical scenario approach. The results allow for determining whether a simplified scenario approach can be considered valid, and for quantifying the bias which arises when full variability is not accounted for.

  8. Beyond eruptive scenarios: assessing tephra fallout hazard from Neapolitan volcanoes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sandri, Laura; Costa, Antonio; Selva, Jacopo; Tonini, Roberto; Macedonio, Giovanni; Folch, Arnau; Sulpizio, Roberto

    2016-04-01

    Assessment of volcanic hazards is necessary for risk mitigation. Typically, hazard assessment is based on one or a few, subjectively chosen representative eruptive scenarios, which use a specific combination of eruptive sizes and intensities to represent a particular size class of eruption. While such eruptive scenarios use a range of representative members to capture a range of eruptive sizes and intensities in order to reflect a wider size class, a scenario approach neglects to account for the intrinsic variability of volcanic eruptions, and implicitly assumes that inter-class size variability (i.e. size difference between different eruptive size classes) dominates over intra-class size variability (i.e. size difference within an eruptive size class), the latter of which is treated as negligible. So far, no quantitative study has been undertaken to verify such an assumption. Here, we adopt a novel Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Analysis (PVHA) strategy, which accounts for intrinsic eruptive variabilities, to quantify the tephra fallout hazard in the Campania area. We compare the results of the new probabilistic approach with the classical scenario approach. The results allow for determining whether a simplified scenario approach can be considered valid, and for quantifying the bias which arises when full variability is not accounted for.

  9. Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joao M. Goncalves

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Personal information is increasingly gathered and used for providing services tailored to user preferences, but the datasets used to provide such functionality can represent serious privacy threats if not appropriately protected. Work in privacy-preserving data publishing targeted privacy guarantees that protect against record re-identification, by making records indistinguishable, or sensitive attribute value disclosure, by introducing diversity or noise in the sensitive values. However, most approaches fail in the high-dimensional case, and the ones that don't introduce a utility cost incompatible with tailored recommendation scenarios. This paper aims at a sensible trade-off between privacy and the benefits of tailored recommendations, in the context of privacy-preserving data publishing. We empirically demonstrate that significant privacy improvements can be achieved at a utility cost compatible with tailored recommendation scenarios, using a simple partition-based sanitization method.

  10. Environmental assessment of spatial plan policies through land use scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper presents a method based on scenario analysis to compare the environmental effects of different spatial plan policies in a range of possible futures. The study aimed at contributing to overcome two limitations encountered in Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) for spatial planning: poor exploration of how the future might unfold, and poor consideration of alternative plan policies. Scenarios were developed through what-if functions and spatial modeling in a Geographical Information System (GIS), and consisted in maps that represent future land uses under different assumptions on key driving forces. The use of land use scenarios provided a representation of how the different policies will look like on the ground. This allowed gaining a better understanding of the policies' implications on the environment, which could be measured through a set of indicators. The research undertook a case-study approach by developing and assessing land use scenarios for the future growth of Caia, a strategically-located and fast-developing town in rural Mozambique. The effects of alternative spatial plan policies were assessed against a set of environmental performance indicators, including deforestation, loss of agricultural land, encroachment of flood-prone areas and wetlands and access to water sources. In this way, critical environmental effects related to the implementation of each policy were identified and discussed, suggesting possible strategies to address them. - Graphical abstract: Display Omitted Research Highlights: ► The method contributes to two critical issues in SEA: exploration of the future and consideration of alternatives. ► Future scenarios are used to test the environmental performance of different spatial plan policies in uncertainty conditions. ► Spatially-explicit land use scenarios provide a representation of how different policies will look like on the ground.

  11. Scenario drafting to anticipate future developments in technology assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Retèl Valesca P

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Health Technology Assessment (HTA information, and in particular cost-effectiveness data is needed to guide decisions, preferably already in early stages of technological development. However, at that moment there is usually a high degree of uncertainty, because evidence is limited and different development paths are still possible. We developed a multi-parameter framework to assess dynamic aspects of a technology -still in development-, by means of scenario drafting to determine the effects, costs and cost-effectiveness of possible future diffusion patterns. Secondly, we explored the value of this method on the case of the clinical implementation of the 70-gene signature for breast cancer, a gene expression profile for selecting patients who will benefit most from chemotherapy. Methods To incorporate process-uncertainty, ten possible scenarios regarding the introduction of the 70-gene signature were drafted with European experts. Out of 5 most likely scenarios, 3 drivers of diffusion (non-compliance, technical failure, and uptake were quantitatively integrated in a decision-analytical model. For these scenarios, the cost-effectiveness of the 70-gene signature expressed in Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratios (ICERs was compared to clinical guidelines, calculated from the past (2005 until the future (2020. Results In 2005 the ICER was €1,9 million/quality-adjusted-life-year (QALY, meaning that the 70-gene signature was not yet cost-effective compared to the current clinical guideline. The ICER for the 70-gene signature improved over time with a range of €1,9 million to €26,145 in 2010 and €1,9 million to €11,123/QALY in 2020 depending on the separate scenario used. From 2010, the 70-gene signature should be cost-effective, based on the combined scenario. The uptake-scenario had strongest influence on the cost-effectiveness. Conclusions When optimal diffusion of a technology is sought, incorporating process

  12. AN ETHICAL ASSESSMENT OF COMPUTER ETHICS USING SCENARIO APPROACH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maslin Masrom

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Ethics refers to a set of rules that define right and wrong behavior, used for moral decision making. In this case, computer ethics is one of the major issues in information technology (IT and information system (IS. The ethical behaviour of IT students and professionals need to be studied in an attempt to reduce many unethical practices such as software piracy, hacking, and software intellectual property violations. This paper attempts to address computer-related scenarios that can be used to examine the computer ethics. The computer-related scenario consists of a short description of an ethical situation whereby the subject of the study such as IT professionals or students, then rate the ethics of the scenario, namely attempt to identify the ethical issues involved. This paper also reviews several measures of computer ethics in different setting. The perceptions of various dimensions of ethical behaviour in IT that are related to the circumstances of the ethical scenario are also presented.

  13. Reference scenarios for deforestation and forest degradation in support of REDD: a review of data and methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Global climate policy initiatives are now being proposed to compensate tropical forest nations for reducing carbon emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD). These proposals have the potential to include developing countries more actively in international greenhouse gas mitigation and to address a substantial share of the world's emissions which come from tropical deforestation. For such a policy to be viable it must have a credible benchmark against which emissions reduction can be calculated. This benchmark, sometimes termed a baseline or reference emissions scenario, can be based directly on historical emissions or can use historical emissions as input for business as usual projections. Here, we review existing data and methods that could be used to measure historical deforestation and forest degradation reference scenarios including FAO (Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations) national statistics and various remote sensing sources. The freely available and corrected global Landsat imagery for 1990, 2000 and soon to come for 2005 may be the best primary data source for most developing countries with other coarser resolution high frequency or radar data as a valuable complement for addressing problems with cloud cover and for distinguishing larger scale degradation. While sampling of imagery has been effectively useful for pan-tropical and continental estimates of deforestation, wall-to-wall (or full coverage) allows more detailed assessments for measuring national-level reference emissions. It is possible to measure historical deforestation with sufficient certainty for determining reference emissions, but there must be continued calls at the international level for making high-resolution imagery available, and for financial and technical assistance to help countries determine credible reference scenarios. The data available for past years may not be sufficient for assessing all forms of forest degradation, but new data sources

  14. Environmental and climate security: improving scenario methodologies for science and risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Briggs, C. M.; Carlsen, H.

    2010-12-01

    Governments and popular discussions have increasingly referred to concepts of ‘climate security’, often with reference to IPCC data. Development of effective methodologies to translate complex, scientific data into risk assessments has lagged, resulting in overly simplistic political assumptions of potential impacts. Climate security scenarios have been developed for use by security and military agencies, but effective engagement by scientific communities requires an improved framework. Effective use of data requires improvement both of climate projections, and the mapping of cascading impacts across interlinked, complex systems. In this research we propose a process for systematic generation of subsets of scenarios (of arbitrary size) from a given set of variables with possible interlinkages. The variables could include climatic changes as well as other global changes of concerns in a security context. In coping with possible challenges associated with the nexus of climate change and security - where deep structural uncertainty and possible irreversible changes are of primary interest - it is important to explore the outer limits of the relevant uncertainties. Therefore the proposed process includes a novel method that will help scenario developers in generating scenario sets where the scenarios are in a quantifiable sense maximally different and therefore best ‘span’ the whole set of scenarios. When downscaled onto a regional level, this process can provide guidance to potentially significant and abrupt geophysical changes, where high uncertainty has often prevented communication of risks. Potential physical changes can then be used as starting points for mapping cascading effects across networks, including topological analysis to identify critically vulnerable nodes and fragile systems, the existence of positive or negative feedback loops, and possible intervention points. Advanced knowledge of both potential geo-physical shifts and related non

  15. Expert assessment concludes negative emissions scenarios may not deliver

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vaughan, Naomi E.; Gough, Clair

    2016-09-01

    Many integrated assessment models (IAMs) rely on the availability and extensive use of biomass energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) to deliver emissions scenarios consistent with limiting climate change to below 2 °C average temperature rise. BECCS has the potential to remove carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere, delivering ‘negative emissions’. The deployment of BECCS at the scale assumed in IAM scenarios is highly uncertain: biomass energy is commonly used but not at such a scale, and CCS technologies have been demonstrated but not commercially established. Here we present the results of an expert elicitation process that explores the explicit and implicit assumptions underpinning the feasibility of BECCS in IAM scenarios. Our results show that the assumptions are considered realistic regarding technical aspects of CCS but unrealistic regarding the extent of bioenergy deployment, and development of adequate societal support and governance structures for BECCS. The results highlight concerns about the assumed magnitude of carbon dioxide removal achieved across a full BECCS supply chain, with the greatest uncertainty in bioenergy production. Unrealistically optimistic assumptions regarding the future availability of BECCS in IAM scenarios could lead to the overshoot of critical warming limits and have significant impacts on near-term mitigation options.

  16. Asian water futures - Multi scenarios, models and criteria assessment -

    Science.gov (United States)

    Satoh, Yusuke; Burek, Peter; Wada, Yoshihide; Flrörke, Martina; Eisner, Stephanie; Hanasaki, Naota; Kahil, Taher; Tramberend, Sylvia; Fischer, Günther; Wiberg, David

    2016-04-01

    A better understanding of the current and future availability of water resources is essential for the implementation of the recently agreed Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Long-term/efficient strategies for coping with current and potential future water-related challenges are urgently required. Although Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) were develop for the impact assessment of climate change, very few assessments have yet used the SSPs to assess water resources. Then the IIASA Water Futures and Solutions Initiative (WFaS), developed a set of water use scenarios consistent with RCPs and SSPs and applying the latest climate changes scenarios. Here this study focuses on results for Asian countries for the period 2010-2050. We present three conceivable future pathways of Asian water resources, determined by feasible combinations of two RCPs and three SSPs. Such a scenario approach provides valuable insights towards identifying appropriate strategies as gaps between a "scenario world" and reality. In addition, for the assessment of future water resources a multi-criteria analysis is applied. A classification system for countries and watershed that consists of two broad dimensions: (i) economic and institutional adaptive capacity, (ii) hydrological complexity. The latter is composed of several sub-indexes including total renewable water resources per capita, the ratio of water demand to renewable water resource, variability of runoff and dependency ratio to external. Furthermore, this analysis uses a multi-model approach to estimate runoff and discharge using 5 GCMs and 5 global hydrological models (GHMs). Three of these GHMs calculate water use based on a consistent set of scenarios in addition to water availability. As a result, we have projected hot spots of water scarcity in Asia and their spatial and temporal change. For example, in a scenario based on SSP2 and RCP6.0, by 2050, in total 2.1 billion people

  17. Comparative energy and exergy performance assessments of a microcogenerator unit in different electricity mix scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Highlights: • Experimental and energy–exergy modelling of a 6 kW micro-combined heat and power unit. • Evaluation of energy and exergy efficiencies for performance assessment. • Use of exergy and energy indicators for comparison with a reference system. • Use of different renewables supply options into the electric and heat reference system. • The electric grid mix of Portugal and Italy is used and discussed. - Abstract: The Directive 2004/8/EC on the promotion of cogeneration proposes a comparative indicator based on primary energy savings, neglecting some important thermodynamic aspects, such as exergy. This study aims to compare and discuss the usefulness of a set of complementary indicators for performance assessments of cogeneration systems, concerning thermodynamic principles based on first and second law (the exergy approach). As case study, a 6 kW electric output micro-combined heat and power unit was experimentally tested and a model of the unit was developed in TRNSYS. Considering as reference a set of different heat and electricity scenarios, including the actual electric mixes of Portugal and Italy, the indicators case incon (PES) and Primary and Total Irreversibilities Savings (PIS and TIS), as well as energy and exergy renewability ratios were assessed and discussed. The results show that the use of MCHP has higher advantages for the Italian electric grid, than an equivalent scenario considering the Portuguese electric network as reference. As result, for a particular scenario analysed, PES and PIS have 3% and 6% for Portugal, and 10% and 18% for Italy, respectively. Furthermore, for one particular scenario evaluated, the indicators energetic and exergetic renewability ratios have 23% and 14%, respectively for the Portuguese electric grid, and 19% and 10% for the Italian electric system

  18. An "acceptable" low carbon scenario for France: Participatory scenario design and economic assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Bibas, Ruben; Mathy, Sandrine; Fink, Meike

    2012-01-01

    The implementation of climate policies is often hindered by a lack of acceptability as well as the lack of long-term vision of stakeholders. Mitigation scenarios exercises allow the debate; however the scenario design process lacks transparency and stakeholders' (and citizens') involvement, which leads to a lack of credibility, legitimacy and ownership of mitigation scenarios. This paper presents a process for the collaborative design of an "acceptable" mitigation scenario through a public di...

  19. Developing Shipping Emissions Assessments, Inventories and Scenarios (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corbett, J. J.

    2010-12-01

    Inventories of shipping have been important contributions to scientific understanding of regional pollution and transboundary transport. These inventories have also been used to evaluate global scale environmental and climate effects and trends. However, these inventories also inform policy making decisions and this role is increasingly occurring within the timescale of scientific assessment. Shipping exhibits a growth trend for uncontrolled pollutants that is highly coupled to economic activity, and historically increasing faster than many other anthropogenic sources on a global and regional scale. Shipping emissions are being regulated asymmetrically in various dimensions. Some pollutants are being controlled more than others, some regions are subject to stricter controls, and correlated changes in operations are affecting unregulated pollutant emissions. Shipping inventories require more than current assessments, including historic and future scenarios. Generally conceived as sets of business-as-usual (BAU) and high-growth scenarios, ship inventories now also need regulatory control pathways and maximum feasible reduction (MFR) scenarios. In this context, shipping inventories also present other challenges to both scientists and policymakers. Systemic bias can occur in non-shipping assessments when emissions along well-traveled shipping lanes are ignored by far offshore scientific studies, even some campaigns that control very carefully the potential influence of the shipping platforms for their measurements. Examples where shipping may contribute understood and potential biases include: a. Health impacts from transboundary pollution b. Ozone trends over the Pacific c. Sulfur emissions from biogenic sources in Northern hemisphere d. Acidification of coastal waters (potential) e. Arctic impacts on snow and ice Other challenges exist. The fuels and technology used by ships are unique from other transportation, from other stationary sources - and these are changing

  20. Data Assimilation Techniques for Ionospheric Reference Scenarios - project overview and achieved outcomes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerzen, Tatjana; Wilken, Volker; Hoque, Mainul; Minkwitz, David; Schlueter, Stefan

    2016-04-01

    The ionosphere is the upper part of the Earth's atmosphere, where sufficient free electrons exist to affect the propagation of radio waves. Therefore, the treatment of the ionosphere is a critical issue for many applications dealing with trans-ionospheric signals such as GNSS positioning, GNSS related augmentation systems (e.g. EGNOS and WAAS) and remote sensing. The European Geostationary Navigation Overlay Service (EGNOS) is the European Satellite Based Augmentation Service (SBAS) that provides value added services, in particular to safety critical GNSS applications, e.g. aviation and maritime traffic. In the frame of the European GNSS Evolution Programme (EGEP), ESA has launched several activities, supporting the design, development and qualification of the operational EGNOS infrastructure and associated services. Ionospheric Reference Scenarios (IRSs) are used by ESA in order to conduct the EGNOS performance simulations and to assure the capability for maintaining accuracy, integrity and availability of the EGNOS system, especially during ionospheric storm conditions. The project Data Assimilation Techniques for Ionospheric Reference Scenarios (DAIS) - aims the provision of improved EGNOS IRSs. The main tasks are the calculation and validation of time series of IRSs by a 3D assimilation approach that combines space borne and ground based GNSS observations as well as ionosonde measurements with an ionospheric background model. The special focus thereby is to demonstrate that space-based measurements can significantly contribute to fill data gaps in GNSS ground networks (particularly in Africa and over the oceans) when generating the IRSs. In this project we selected test periods of perturbed and nominal ionospheric conditions and filtered the collected data for outliers. We defined and developed an applicable technique for the 3D assimilation and applied this technique for the generation of IRSs covering the EGNOS V3 extended service area. Afterwards the

  1. Nuclear spent fuel management scenarios. Status and assessment report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dufek, J.; Arzhanov, V.; Gudowski, W. [Royal Inst. of Technology, Stockholm (Sweden). Dept. of Nuclear and Reactor Physics

    2006-06-15

    The strategy for management of spent nuclear fuel from the Swedish nuclear power programme is interim storage for cooling and decay for about 30 years followed by direct disposal of the fuel in a geologic repository. In various contexts it is of interest to compare this strategy with other strategies that might be available in the future as a result of ongoing research and development. In particular partitioning and transmutation is one such strategy that is subject to considerable R and D-efforts within the European Union and in other countries with large nuclear programmes. To facilitate such comparisons for the Swedish situation, with a planned phase out of the nuclear power programme, SKB has asked the team at Royal Inst. of Technology to describe and explore some scenarios that might be applied to the Swedish programme. The results of this study are presented in this report. The following scenarios were studied by the help of a specially developed computer programme: Phase out by 2025 with direct disposal. Burning plutonium and minor actinides as MOX in BWR. Burning plutonium and minor actinides as MOX in PWR. Burning plutonium and minor actinides in ADS. Combined LWR-MOX plus ADS. For the different scenarios nuclide inventories, waste amounts, costs, additional electricity production etc have been assessed. As a general conclusion it was found that BWR is more efficient for burning plutonium in MOX fuel than PWR. The difference is approximately 10%. Furthermore the BWR produces about 10% less americium inventory. An ADS reactor park can theoretically in an ideal case burn (transmute) 99% of the transuranium isotopes. The duration of such a scenario heavily depends on the interim time needed for cooling the spent fuel before reprocessing. Assuming 10 years for cooling of nuclear fuel from ADS, the duration will be at least 200 years under optimistic technical assumptions. The development and use of advanced pyro-processing with an interim cooling time of only

  2. Human scenarios for the screening assessment. Columbia River Comprehensive Impact Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Because of past nuclear production operations along the Columbia River, there is intense public and tribal interest in assessing any residual Hanford Site related contamination along the river from the Hanford Reach to the Pacific Ocean. The Columbia River Impact Assessment (CRCIA) was proposed to address these concerns. The assessment of the Columbia River is being conducted in phases. The initial phase is a screening assessment of risk, which addresses current environmental conditions for a range of potential uses. One component of the screening assessment estimates the risk from contaminants in the Columbia River to humans. Because humans affected by the Columbia river are involved in a wide range of activities, various scenarios have been developed on which to base the risk assessments. The scenarios illustrate the range of activities possible by members of the public coming in contact with the Columbia River so that the impact of contaminants in the river on human health can be assessed. Each scenario illustrates particular activity patterns by a specific group. Risk will be assessed at the screening level for each scenario. This report defines the scenarios and the exposure factors that will be the basis for estimating the potential range of risk to human health from Hanford-derived radioactive as well as non-radioactive contaminants associated with the Columbia River

  3. Human scenarios for the screening assessment. Columbia River Comprehensive Impact Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Napier, B.A.; Harper, B.L.; Lane, N.K.; Strenge, D.L.; Spivey, R.B.

    1996-03-01

    Because of past nuclear production operations along the Columbia River, there is intense public and tribal interest in assessing any residual Hanford Site related contamination along the river from the Hanford Reach to the Pacific Ocean. The Columbia River Impact Assessment (CRCIA) was proposed to address these concerns. The assessment of the Columbia River is being conducted in phases. The initial phase is a screening assessment of risk, which addresses current environmental conditions for a range of potential uses. One component of the screening assessment estimates the risk from contaminants in the Columbia River to humans. Because humans affected by the Columbia river are involved in a wide range of activities, various scenarios have been developed on which to base the risk assessments. The scenarios illustrate the range of activities possible by members of the public coming in contact with the Columbia River so that the impact of contaminants in the river on human health can be assessed. Each scenario illustrates particular activity patterns by a specific group. Risk will be assessed at the screening level for each scenario. This report defines the scenarios and the exposure factors that will be the basis for estimating the potential range of risk to human health from Hanford-derived radioactive as well as non-radioactive contaminants associated with the Columbia River.

  4. Fame: A forest assessment and monitoring environment scenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    van der Burg, G.; Looyen, W.J.; Venema, J.C.

    1993-04-19

    The report includes effective management of forest resources which requires suitable, up-to-date information on the state, extent and distribution of forest. FAO has initiated a feasibility study on a global operational forest cover monitoring network using satellite remote sensing data within the framework of the Tropical Forestry Action Plan. The study indicates that the use of remote sensing data for global forest cover monitoring is of great importance. To enable this, provisions are required to allow operational pre-processing of remote sensing data to well defined and standardized products. A scenario for the develop of a Forest Assessment and Monitoring Environment (FAME) is presented. Firstly, Pilot FAME is developed, aiming at providing a suitable infrastructure for forest management using satellite remote sensing data to compile information on global forests. Secondly, PFAME is upgraded to improve its functionality and to introduce Forest Management Systems. Thirdly, PFAME is extended by introducing remote sensing data from other newly launched sensors.

  5. On Improving the Reliability of Distribution Networks Based on Investment Scenarios Using Reference Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kawahara, Koji

    Distribution systems are inherent monopolies and therefore these have generally been regulated in order to protect customers and to ensure cost-effective operation. In the UK this is one of the functions of OFGEM (Office of Gas and Electricity Markets). Initially the regulation was based on the value of assets but there is a trend nowadays towards performance-based regulation. In order to achieve this, a methodology is needed that enables the reliability performance associated with alternative investment strategies to be compared with the investment cost of these strategies. At present there is no accepted approach for such assessments. Building on the concept of reference networks proposed in Refs. (1), (2), this paper describes how these networks can be used to assess the impact that performance driven investment strategies will have on the improvement in reliability indices. The method has been tested using the underground and overhead part of a real system.

  6. Alternative future scenarios for the SPS comparative assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ayres, R.U.; Ridker, R.G.; Watson, W.D. Jr.; Arnold, J.; Tayi, G.

    1980-08-01

    The objective of the comparative assessment is to develop an initial understanding of the SPS with respect to a limited set of energy alternatives. A comparative methodology report describes the multi-step process in the comparative assessment. The first step is the selection and characterization of alternative energy systems. Terrestrial alternatives are selected, and their cost, performance, and environmental and social attributes are specified for use in the comparison with the SPS in the post-2000 era. Data on alternative technologies were sought from previous research and from other comparisons. The object of this study is to provide a futures framework for evaluating SPS (i.e., factor prices, primary energy prices, and energy demands for the US from 1980 to 2030). The economic/energy interactions are discussed, and a number of specific modelling schemes that have been used for long-range forecasting purposes are described. This discussion provides the rationale for the choice of a specific model and methodology, which is described. Long-range cost assumptions used in the forecast are detailed, and the basis for the selection of specific scenarios follows. Results of the analysis are detailed. (WHK)

  7. Representative Agricultural Pathways and Scenarios for Regional Integrated Assessment of Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability, and Adaptation. 5; Chapter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valdivia, Roberto O.; Antle, John M.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Ruane, Alexander C.; Vervoort, Joost; Ashfaq, Muhammad; Hathie, Ibrahima; Tui, Sabine Homann-Kee; Mulwa, Richard; Nhemachena, Charles; Ponnusamy, Paramasivam; Rasnayaka, Herath; Singh, Harbir

    2015-01-01

    The global change research community has recognized that new pathway and scenario concepts are needed to implement impact and vulnerability assessment where precise prediction is not possible, and also that these scenarios need to be logically consistent across local, regional, and global scales. For global climate models, representative concentration pathways (RCPs) have been developed that provide a range of time-series of atmospheric greenhouse-gas concentrations into the future. For impact and vulnerability assessment, new socio-economic pathway and scenario concepts have also been developed, with leadership from the Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC).This chapter presents concepts and methods for development of regional representative agricultural pathways (RAOs) and scenarios that can be used for agricultural model intercomparison, improvement, and impact assessment in a manner consistent with the new global pathways and scenarios. The development of agriculture-specific pathways and scenarios is motivated by the need for a protocol-based approach to climate impact, vulnerability, and adaptation assessment. Until now, the various global and regional models used for agricultural-impact assessment have been implemented with individualized scenarios using various data and model structures, often without transparent documentation, public availability, and consistency across disciplines. These practices have reduced the credibility of assessments, and also hampered the advancement of the science through model intercomparison, improvement, and synthesis of model results across studies. The recognition of the need for better coordination among the agricultural modeling community, including the development of standard reference scenarios with adequate agriculture-specific detail led to the creation of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) in 2010. The development of RAPs is one of the cross-cutting themes in AgMIP's work

  8. Scenario-based Storm Surge Vulnerability Assessment of Catanduanes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suarez, J. K. B.

    2015-12-01

    After the devastating storm surge effect of Typhoon Haiyan, the public recognized an improved communication about risks, vulnerabilities and what is threatened by storm surge. This can be provided by vulnerability maps which allow better visual presentations and understanding of the risks and vulnerabilities. Local implementers can direct the resources needed for protection of these areas. Moreover, vulnerability and hazard maps are relevant in all phases of disaster management designed by the National Disaster Risk Reduction Council (NDRRMC) - disaster preparedness, prevention and mitigation and response and recovery and rehabilitation. This paper aims to analyze the vulnerability of Catanduanes, a coastal province in the Philippines, to storm surges in terms of four parameters: population, built environment, natural environment and agricultural production. The vulnerability study relies on the storm surge inundation maps based on the Department of Science and Technology Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards' (DOST-Project NOAH) proposed four Storm Surge Advisory (SSA) scenarios (1-2, 3, 4, and 5 meters) for predicting storm surge heights. To determine total percent affected for each parameter elements, an overlay analysis was performed in ArcGIS Desktop. Moreover, vulnerability and hazard maps are generated as a final output and a tool for visualizing the impacts of storm surge event at different surge heights. The result of this study would help the selected province to know their present condition and adapt strategies to strengthen areas where they are found to be most vulnerable in order to prepare better for the future.

  9. FAME: A forest assessment and monitoring environment scenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Looyen, W.J.; Zeppenfeldt, F.O.; Venema, J.C.; van der Burg, G.

    1993-02-26

    The report includes effective management of forest resources which requires suitable for, up-to-date information on the state, extent and distribution of forest. Remote Sensing data can provide this information. FAO has initiated a feasibility study on a global operational forest cover monitoring network using satellite remote sensing data within the framework of the Tropical Forestry Action Plan. The study indicates that the use of remote sensing data for global forest cover monitoring is of great importance. To enable this, provisions are required to allow operational pre-processing of remote sensing data to well defined and standardized products. A scenario for the development of a Forest Assessment and Monitoring Environment (FAME) is presented. Firstly, Pilot FAME is developed, aiming at providing a suitable infrastructure for forest management using satellite remote sensing data to compile information on global forests. Secondly, PFAME is upgraded to improve its functionality and to introduce Forest Management Systems. Thirdly, PFAME is extended by introducing remote sensing data from other newly launched sensors.

  10. Transport project evaluation: feasibility risk assessment and scenario forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang; Leleur, Steen

    2015-01-01

    distribution functions. The latter have been placed and ultimately simulated on the inaccuracies of determining demand forecasts, i.e. leading to travel time savings and ticket revenues of the project. Finally, RSF makes use of scenario forecasting where trend scenarios such as economic growth and level...

  11. A comparison between the example reference biosphere model ERB 2B and a process-based model: simulation of a natural release scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almahayni, T

    2014-12-01

    The BIOMASS methodology was developed with the objective of constructing defensible assessment biospheres for assessing potential radiological impacts of radioactive waste repositories. To this end, a set of Example Reference Biospheres were developed to demonstrate the use of the methodology and to provide an international point of reference. In this paper, the performance of the Example Reference Biosphere model ERB 2B associated with the natural release scenario, discharge of contaminated groundwater to the surface environment, was evaluated by comparing its long-term projections of radionuclide dynamics and distribution in a soil-plant system to those of a process-based, transient advection-dispersion model (AD). The models were parametrised with data characteristic of a typical rainfed winter wheat crop grown on a sandy loam soil under temperate climate conditions. Three safety-relevant radionuclides, (99)Tc, (129)I and (237)Np with different degree of sorption were selected for the study. Although the models were driven by the same hydraulic (soil moisture content and water fluxes) and radiological (Kds) input data, their projections were remarkably different. On one hand, both models were able to capture short and long-term variation in activity concentration in the subsoil compartment. On the other hand, the Reference Biosphere model did not project any radionuclide accumulation in the topsoil and crop compartments. This behaviour would underestimate the radiological exposure under natural release scenarios. The results highlight the potential role deep roots play in soil-to-plant transfer under a natural release scenario where radionuclides are released into the subsoil. When considering the relative activity and root depth profiles within the soil column, much of the radioactivity was taken up into the crop from the subsoil compartment. Further improvements were suggested to address the limitations of the Reference Biosphere model presented in this paper.

  12. Review of scenario selection approaches for performance assessment of high-level waste repositories and related issues

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The selection of scenarios representing plausible realizations of the future conditions-with associated probabilities of occurrence-that can affect the long-term performance of a high-level radioactive waste (HLW) repository is the commonly used method for treating the uncertainty in the prediction of the future states of the system. This method, conventionally referred to as the ''scenario approach,'' while common is not the only method to deal with this uncertainty; other method ''ch as the environmental simulation approach (ESA), have also been proposed. Two of the difficulties with the scenario approach are the lack of uniqueness in the definition of the term ''scenario'' and the lack of uniqueness in the approach to formulate scenarios, which relies considerably on subjective judgments. Consequently, it is difficult to assure that a complete and unique set of scenarios can be defined for use in a performance assessment. Because scenarios are key to the determination of the long-term performance of the repository system, this lack of uniqueness can present a considerable challenge when attempting to reconcile the set of scenarios, and their level of detail, obtained using different approaches, particularly among proponents and regulators of a HLW repository

  13. Review of scenario selection approaches for performance assessment of high-level waste repositories and related issues.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Banano, E.J. [Beta Corporation International, Albuquerque, NM (United States); Baca, R.G. [Southwest Research Inst., San Antonio, TX (United States). Center for Nuclear Waste Regulatory Analyses

    1995-08-01

    The selection of scenarios representing plausible realizations of the future conditions-with associated probabilities of occurrence-that can affect the long-term performance of a high-level radioactive waste (HLW) repository is the commonly used method for treating the uncertainty in the prediction of the future states of the system. This method, conventionally referred to as the ``scenario approach,`` while common is not the only method to deal with this uncertainty; other method ``ch as the environmental simulation approach (ESA), have also been proposed. Two of the difficulties with the scenario approach are the lack of uniqueness in the definition of the term ``scenario`` and the lack of uniqueness in the approach to formulate scenarios, which relies considerably on subjective judgments. Consequently, it is difficult to assure that a complete and unique set of scenarios can be defined for use in a performance assessment. Because scenarios are key to the determination of the long-term performance of the repository system, this lack of uniqueness can present a considerable challenge when attempting to reconcile the set of scenarios, and their level of detail, obtained using different approaches, particularly among proponents and regulators of a HLW repository.

  14. Using scenarios to assess possible future impacts of invasive species in the Laurentian Great Lakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lauber, T. Bruce; Stedman, Richard C.; Connelly, Nancy A; Rudstam, Lars G.; Ready, Richard C; Poe, Gregory L; Bunnell, David; Hook, Tomas O.; Koops, Marten A.; Ludsin, Stuart A.; Rutherford, Edward S; Wittmann, Marion E.

    2016-01-01

    The expected impacts of invasive species are key considerations in selecting policy responses to potential invasions. But predicting the impacts of invasive species is daunting, particularly in large systems threatened by multiple invasive species, such as North America’s Laurentian Great Lakes. We developed and evaluated a scenario-building process that relied on an expert panel to assess possible future impacts of aquatic invasive species on recreational fishing in the Great Lakes. To maximize its usefulness to policy makers, this process was designed to be implemented relatively rapidly and consider a range of species. The expert panel developed plausible, internally-consistent invasion scenarios for 5 aquatic invasive species, along with subjective probabilities of those scenarios. We describe these scenarios and evaluate this approach for assessing future invasive species impacts. The panel held diverse opinions about the likelihood of the scenarios, and only one scenario with impacts on sportfish species was considered likely by most of the experts. These outcomes are consistent with the literature on scenario building, which advocates for developing a range of plausible scenarios in decision making because the uncertainty of future conditions makes the likelihood of any particular scenario low. We believe that this scenario-building approach could contribute to policy decisions about whether and how to address the possible impacts of invasive species. In this case, scenarios could allow policy makers to narrow the range of possible impacts on Great Lakes fisheries they consider and help set a research agenda for further refining invasive species predictions.

  15. Towards integrated long-term scenarios for assessing biodiversity risks

    OpenAIRE

    Spangenberg, Joachim H.

    2007-01-01

    From a policy point of view, the rapid loss of biodiversity (how ever measured) constitutes an urgent need to improve the ability to forecast possible changes in biodiversity. Scenario development and modelling are essential tools for studying changes of biodiversity and their impacts in order to provide well-founded policy options. However, so far no comprehensive model has been developed integrating the diverse relevant ecological, economic, individual and societal processes. Instead soc...

  16. Risk assessment by convergence methodology in RDD scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Araujo, Olga Maria Oliveira de; Andrade, Edson Ramos de; Rebello, Wilson Freitas; Silva, Gabriel Fidalgo Queiroz da, E-mail: olgafisica2013@hotmail.com, E-mail: fisica.dna@gmail.com, E-mail: rebello@ime.eb.br, E-mail: profgabriel.fisica@gmail.com [Instituto Militar de Engenharia (IME), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Secao de Engenharia Nuclear

    2015-07-01

    An RDD event occurs by explosion and radioactive material dispersion where particles containing radioactive material can reach great distances from original point of the explosion and generating a plume of contamination. The use of a RDD is regarded as the most likely scenario involving radiological terrorist material. Accurate information on the population and the estimated dose are essential for analysis during the decision process. This work intends to present a proposal for a convergence of methodologies using the computer simulation codes Hotspot Health Physics 3.0 and the statistical model Radiation Effects Research Foundation (RERF) to calculate the approximate dose depending on the distance of the original point of the explosion of an RDD. From those data, the relative risk of developing tumors is estimated, as well as the probability of causation. At a later stage, the proposed combination of actions intended to help the decision-making and employment response personnel in emergency protection measures, such as sheltering and evacuation through the RESRAD-RDD software. The convergence of the proposed methodology can accelerate the process of acquiring information during the first hours of a radiological scenario and provide proper management of medical response and organization of the overall response. (author)

  17. Scenarios for the Hanford Immobilized Low-Activity Waste (ILAW) performance assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scenarios describing representative exposure cases associated with the disposal of low activity waste from the Hanford Waste Tanks have been defined. These scenarios are based on guidance from the Department of Energy, the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, and previous Hanford waste disposal performance assessments

  18. Interactive Rapid Dose Assessment Model (IRDAM): scenarios for comparing dose-assessment models. Vol.3

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Interactive Rapid Dose Assessment Model (IRDAM) is a micro-computer based program designed to provide rapid assessments of the radiological impact of accidents at nuclear power plants. The main body of this document consists of 28 examples of IRDAM input and output, representing various types of accidents and releases. These examples are intended to provide a basis for comparison with other models or for testing IRDAM itself. Figures are included which show dose rates calculated by IRDAM for each scenario. Figures are also included which show calculations made using the computer codes WRAITH (Scherpelz, Borst and Hoenes, 1980) and RADPUR (Dabbert, et. al., 1982). Two other companion volumes to this one provide additional information on IRDAM. The User's Guide (NUREG/CR-3012, Volume 1) describes the setup and operation of equipment necessary to run IRDAM. Reactor Accident Assessment Methods (NUREG/CR-3012, Volume 2) describes the technical bases for IRDAM including methods, models and assumptions used in calculations

  19. Assessment of Effectiveness of Geologic Isolation Systems: REFERENCE SITE INITIAL ASSESSMENT FOR A SALT DOME REPOSITORY

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Harwell, M. A.; Brandstetter, A.; Benson, G. L.; Bradley, D. J.; Serne, R. J.; Soldat, J. K; Cole, C. R.; Deutsch, W. J.; Gupta, S. K.; Harwell, C. C.; Napier, B. A.; Reisenauer, A. E.; Prater, L. S.; Simmons, C. S.; Strenge, D. L.; Washburn, J. F.; Zellmer, J. T.

    1982-06-01

    As a methodology demonstration for the Office of Nuclear Waste Isolation (ONWI), the Assessment of Effectiveness of Geologic Isolation Systems (AEGIS) Program conducted an initial reference site analysis of the long-term effectiveness of a salt dome repository. The Hainesville Salt Dome in Texas was chosen to be representative of the Gulf Coast interior salt domes; however, the Hainesville Site has been eliminated as a possible nuclear waste repository site. The data used for this exercise are not adequate for an actual assessment, nor have all the parametric analyses been made that would adequately characterize the response of the geosystem surrounding the repository. Additionally, because this was the first exercise of the complete AEGIS and WASTE Rock Interaction Technology (WRIT) methodology, this report provides the initial opportunity for the methodology, specifically applied to a site, to be reviewed by the community outside the AEGIS. The scenario evaluation, as a part of the methodology demonstration, involved consideration of a large variety of potentially disruptive phenomena, which alone or in concert could lead to a breach in a salt dome repository and to a subsequent transport of the radionuclides to the environment. Without waste- and repository-induced effects, no plausible natural geologic events or processes which would compromise the repository integrity could be envisioned over the one-million-year time frame after closure. Near-field (waste- and repository-induced) effects were excluded from consideration in this analysis, but they can be added in future analyses when that methodology development is more complete. The potential for consequential human intrusion into salt domes within a million-year time frame led to the consideration of a solution mining intrusion scenario. The AEGIS staff developed a specific human intrusion scenario at 100 years and 1000 years post-closure, which is one of a whole suite of possible scenarios. This scenario

  20. Assessment of Effectiveness of Geologic Isolation Systems: REFERENCE SITE INITIAL ASSESSMENT FOR A SALT DOME REPOSITORY

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Harwell, M. A.; Brandstetter, A.; Benson, G. L.; Raymond, J. R.; Brandley, D. J.; Serne, R. J.; Soldat, J. K.; Cole, C. R.; Deutsch, W. J.; Gupta, S. K.; Harwell, C. C.; Napier, B. A.; Reisenauer, A. E.; Prater, L. S.; Simmons, C. S.; Strenge, D. L.; Washburn, J. F.; Zellmer, J. T.

    1982-06-01

    As a methodology demonstration for the Office of Nuclear Waste Isolation (ONWI), the Assessment of Effectiveness of Geologic Isolation Systems (AEGIS) Program conducted an initial reference site analysis of the long-term effectiveness of a salt dome repository. The Hainesville Salt Dome in Texas was chosen to be representative of the Gulf Coast interior salt domes; however, the Hainesville Site has been eliminated as a possible nuclear waste repository site. The data used for this exercise are not adequate for an actual assessment, nor have all the parametric analyses been made that would adequately characterize the response of the geosystem surrounding the repository. Additionally, because this was the first exercise of the complete AEGIS and WASTE Rock Interaction Technology (WRIT) methodology, this report provides the initial opportunity for the methodology, specifically applied to a site, to be reviewed by the community outside the AEGIS. The scenario evaluation, as a part of the methodology demonstration, involved consideration of a large variety of potentially disruptive phenomena, which alone or in concert could lead to a breach in a salt dome repository and to a subsequent transport of the radionuclides to the environment. Without waste- and repository-induced effects, no plausible natural geologic events or processes which would compromise the repository integrity could be envisioned over the one-million-year time frame after closure. Near-field (waste- and repository-induced) effects were excluded from consideration in this analysis, but they can be added in future analyses when that methodology development is more complete. The potential for consequential human intrusion into salt domes within a million-year time frame led to the consideration of a solution mining intrusion scenario. The AEGIS staff developed a specific human intrusion scenario at 100 years and 1000 years post-closure, which is one of a whole suite of possible scenarios. This scenario

  1. Landscape Scenarios and Multifunctionality: Making Land Use Impact Assessment Operational

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Helming, K.; Perez-Soba, M.

    2011-01-01

    Ex ante impact assessment can help in structuring the analysis of human-environment interactions thereby supporting land use decision making for sustainable development. The contributions to this special feature focus on some of the challenges of making land use impact assessment operational for pol

  2. The definition and treatment of scenarios in a probabilistic systems assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Concepts for the disposal of nuclear waste generally involve the use of multiple barriers, both man-made and natural, to isolate the waste from man's environment for very long periods of time. To assess the safety of these concepts, postclosure safety assessments are conducted to study the types, ranges and probabilities of potential impacts caused by wastes penetrating these barriers. Within the Canadian context, postclosure safety assessments must estimate radiological risk for comparison with regulatory criteria. The definition of radiological risk introduces a requirement to identify and then evaluate scenarios that describe quantitatively the possible behaviour of a disposal system and its surroundings for at least 104 years. This report examines the connection between the identification and evaluation of scenarios. It shows how a large collection of factors can be combined to form simple scenarios, and how a large number of simple scenarios can be grouped into a manageably small number of compound scenarios. The compound scenarios, notably the 'central' scenario, can be evaluated using a probabilistic systems assessment code such as SYVAC3 (SYstems Variability Analysis Code, generation 3) to estimate the radiological risk and other environmental impacts. Examples are taken from a long-term performance assessment study to demonstrate a pragmatic application of the procedure. (author)

  3. The definition and treatment of scenarios in a probabilistic systems assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andres, T.H.; Goodwin, B.W

    1998-03-01

    Concepts for the disposal of nuclear waste generally involve the use of multiple barriers, both man-made and natural, to isolate the waste from man's environment for very long periods of time. To assess the safety of these concepts, postclosure safety assessments are conducted to study the types, ranges and probabilities of potential impacts caused by wastes penetrating these barriers. Within the Canadian context, postclosure safety assessments must estimate radiological risk for comparison with regulatory criteria. The definition of radiological risk introduces a requirement to identify and then evaluate scenarios that describe quantitatively the possible behaviour of a disposal system and its surroundings for at least 10{sup 4} years. This report examines the connection between the identification and evaluation of scenarios. It shows how a large collection of factors can be combined to form simple scenarios, and how a large number of simple scenarios can be grouped into a manageably small number of compound scenarios. The compound scenarios, notably the 'central' scenario, can be evaluated using a probabilistic systems assessment code such as SYVAC3 (SYstems Variability Analysis Code, generation 3) to estimate the radiological risk and other environmental impacts. Examples are taken from a long-term performance assessment study to demonstrate a pragmatic application of the procedure. (author)

  4. Using Performance in Multiple Simulated Scenarios to Assess Bronchoscopy Skills

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Konge, Lars; Arendrup, Henrik; Buchwald, Christian von;

    2011-01-01

    Background: International guidelines suggest that trainees should perform at least 100 flexible bronchoscopies in a supervised setting, but this number is not evidence based. An objective assessment method could provide educational feedback to trainees and help supervisors decide when basic...

  5. Asian water futures - Multi scenarios, models and criteria assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Satoh, Y.; Burek, P.; Wada, Y.; M. Flörke; Eisner, S.; Hanasaki, N.; Kahil, T.; Tramberend, S.; Fischer, G; Wiberg, D.

    2016-01-01

    A better understanding of the current and future availability of water resources is essential for the implementation of the recently agreed Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Long-term/efficient strategies for coping with current and potential future water-related challenges are urgently required. Although Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) were develop for the impact assessment of climate change, very few assessments have yet used the SSP...

  6. Assessing Seismic Hazards - Algorithms, Maps, and Emergency Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferriz, H.

    2007-05-01

    Public officials in charge of building codes, land use planning, and emergency response need sound estimates of seismic hazards. Sources may be well defined (e.g., active faults that have a surface trace) or diffuse (e.g., a subduction zone or a blind-thrust belt), but in both cases one can use a deterministic or worst-case scenario approach. For each scenario, a design earthquake is selected based on historic data or the known length of Holocene ruptures (as determined by geologic mapping). Horizontal ground accelerations (HGAs) can then be estimated at different distances from the earthquake epicenter using published attenuation relations (e.g., Seismological Res. Letters, v. 68, 1997) and estimates of the elastic properties of the substrate materials. No good algorithms are available to take into account reflection of elastic waves across other fault planes (e.g., a common effect in California, where there are many strands of the San Andreas fault), or amplification of waves in water-saturated alluvial and lacustrine basins (e.g., the Mexico City basin), but empirical relations can be developed by correlating historic damage patterns with predicted HGAs. The ultimate result is a map of HGAs. With this map, and with additional data on depth to groundwater and geotechnical properties of local soils, a liquefaction susceptibility map can be prepared, using published algorithms (e.g., J. of Geotech. Geoenv. Eng., v. 127, p. 817-833, 2001; Eng. Geology Practice in N. California, p. 579-594, 2001). Finally, the HGA estimates, digital elevation models, geologic structural data, and geotechnical properties of local geologic units can be used to prepare a slope failure susceptibility map (e.g., Eng. Geology Practice in N. California, p. 77-94, 2001). Seismic hazard maps are used by: (1) Building officials to determine areas of the city where special construction codes have to be implemented, and where existing buildings may need to be retrofitted. (2) Planning officials

  7. Development of the assessment tool for groundwater scenario concerning sub-surface disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The safety assessment of the sub-surface disposal system should ensure that calculated dose will be lower than the dose assigned to the scenario in question during the period from now to future. In order to realize the safety disposal, we have developed several assessment tools on the GoldSim platform and calculated doses since 2008, and these assessment tools have been improved reflecting the last view of assessment. This report describes safety functions of the disposal system, idea of nuclide migration, formulas for nuclides migration, formulas of exposure dose and structure of assessment tool for groundwater scenario. (author)

  8. Life cycle assessment of cell phones in Brazil based on two reverse logistics scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniela da Gama e Silva Volpe Moreira de Moraes

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available This article is a result of a cell phone collection obtained at the Center for Information Technology Renato Archer (CTI under the AMBIENTRONIC Program, an initiative that supports the Brazilian electronic sector in the development of technologies for sustainability. The objective of this article is to assess two reverse logistic scenarios of cell phones using the technique of life-cycle assessment (LCA. The first scenario reflects the current scenario in Brazil, where batteries are recycled in Brazil and the other parts of the phones are outsourced to Europe. The second scenario is a proposal of full treatment in Brazil. The results indicate that the second scenario has a lower potential impact with important reduction of acidification, photochemical oxidation, eutrophication and the use of non-renewable energy. Furthermore, fully implementing reverse logistics in Brazil will enable socioeconomic benefits from the sale of materials and the generation of employment and income.

  9. Assessing the influence of long-term urban growth scenarios on urban climate

    OpenAIRE

    Aguejdad, Rahim; Hidalgo, Julia; Doukari, Omar; Masson, Valéry; Houet, Thomas

    2012-01-01

    The objective of this paper is to assess the influence of future urban The objective of this paper is to assess the influence of future urban growth scenarios on future urban climate in Toulouse metropolitan area (France). Specifically, we aim to test the hypothesis that urban growth based on sprawling patterns has a significant influence on the Urban Heat Island (UHI) phenomena than compact patterns. Urban growth simulations, which are based on three contrasting scenarios built by 2100 with ...

  10. Development of the assessment tools for land use scenarios concerning sub-surface disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The safety assessment of the sub-surface disposal system should ensure that calculated dose will be lower than the dose assigned to the scenario in question over the whole evaluation period of hundreds of thousands years. In order to realize the safety disposal, we have developed several assessment tools on the GoldSim platform and calculated doses since 2008, and these assessment tools have been improved reflecting the last view of assessment. This report describes idea of assessment models and structure of assessment tools for land use scenarios. Land use scenarios involve direct or indirect contact with radioactive materials contained in rock or in the disposal facility which has come close to the ground surface due to uplift/erosion or sea level changes, or contained in rock/soil along groundwater flow paths and at the flow output in the biosphere. (author)

  11. Scenario drafting to anticipate future developments in technology assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Retel, V.P.; Joore, M.A.; Rutgers, E.J.; Harten, van W.H.

    2012-01-01

    Background Health Technology Assessment (HTA) information, and in particular cost-effectiveness data is needed to guide decisions, preferably already in early stages of technological development. However, at that moment there is usually a high degree of uncertainty, because evidence is limited and d

  12. Assessment of the energy and economic performance of second generation biofuel production processes using energy market scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Highlights: ► Consistent evaluation of biofuel processes using future energy market scenarios. ► Scenario-specific evaluation of energetic, economic and environmental performance. ► Biomass-use allocated with CO2 emissions based on reference biomass fuel user. ► Assumed CO2-neutrality of biomass overestimates the real-life GHG emission reductions. ► Synthetic natural gas production from biomass needs policy support to be economically viable. -- Abstract: In this paper performance assessment of second generation biofuel production using energy market scenarios and system-level performance indicators is proposed. During biofuel production a number of products and services can be co-generated while import of energy services (e.g. electricity and heat) in addition to the fuel supply may also be needed. This needs to be reflected by a well-defined performance indicator enabling a comparison between different process alternatives. A marginal production perspective is proposed in this study for the definition of a general energy performance indicator, recalculating all services to primary energy on a system level. The Energy Price and Carbon Balance Scenarios (ENPAC) tool developed at Chalmers is used for the definition of the energy system background. Thereby, a scenario-specific comparison of the processes’ thermodynamic, economic and carbon footprint performance is possible. The usefulness of the approach is illustrated for production of synthetic natural gas (SNG) from biomass. The shortcomings of common performance indicators are also discussed.

  13. Full-Reference and No-reference Image Blur Assessment Based on Edge Information

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David B.L. Bong

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Blur images are often subjected to the loss of high frequency content during acquisition, compression and multimedia transmission. Hence, objective blur assessment is implemented to identify and quantify image quality degradation by blurriness artifact in order to maintain and control the quality of the images. In this paper, objective full-reference and no-reference blur assessments using edge information are presented with the aim to provide computational models that can automatically measure the amount of blurriness artifact such as Gaussian blur on the images. The amount of Gaussian blur on an image, also known as the final blur measurement is determined by averaging the sum of edge width over all detected edges which satisfy the edge criteria. The final blur measurement for all test images based on full-reference and no-reference implementations are also validated with subjective results. The validation results show that the objective full-reference and no-reference blur assessments correlate closely to perceptual image quality.

  14. Developing ecological scenarios for the prospective aquatic risk assessment of pesticides.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rico, Andreu; Van den Brink, Paul J; Gylstra, Ronald; Focks, Andreas; Brock, Theo Cm

    2016-07-01

    The prospective aquatic environmental risk assessment (ERA) of pesticides is generally based on the comparison of predicted environmental concentrations in edge-of-field surface waters with regulatory acceptable concentrations derived from laboratory and/or model ecosystem experiments with aquatic organisms. New improvements in mechanistic effect modeling have allowed a better characterization of the ecological risks of pesticides through the incorporation of biological trait information and landscape parameters to assess individual, population and/or community-level effects and recovery. Similarly to exposure models, ecological models require scenarios that describe the environmental context in which they are applied. In this article, we propose a conceptual framework for the development of ecological scenarios that, when merged with exposure scenarios, will constitute environmental scenarios for prospective aquatic ERA. These "unified" environmental scenarios are defined as the combination of the biotic and abiotic parameters that are required to characterize exposure, (direct and indirect) effects, and recovery of aquatic nontarget species under realistic worst-case conditions. Ideally, environmental scenarios aim to avoid a potential mismatch between the parameter values and the spatial-temporal scales currently used in aquatic exposure and effect modeling. This requires a deeper understanding of the ecological entities we intend to protect, which can be preliminarily addressed by the formulation of ecological scenarios. In this article we present a methodological approach for the development of ecological scenarios and illustrate this approach by a case-study for Dutch agricultural ditches and the example focal species Sialis lutaria. Finally, we discuss the applicability of ecological scenarios in ERA and propose research needs and recommendations for their development and integration with exposure scenarios. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2016;12:510-521.

  15. Using Crash Data to Develop Simulator Scenarios for Assessing Novice Driver Performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDonald, Catherine C; Tanenbaum, Jason B; Lee, Yi-Ching; Fisher, Donald L; Mayhew, Daniel R; Winston, Flaura K

    2012-01-01

    Teenage drivers are at their highest crash risk in their first 6 months or first 1,000 mi of driving. Driver training, adult-supervised practice driving, and other interventions are aimed at improving driving performance in novice drivers. Previous driver training programs have enumerated thousands of scenarios, with each scenario requiring one or more skills. Although there is general agreement about the broad set of skills needed to become a competent driver, there is no consensus set of scenarios and skills to assess whether novice drivers are likely to crash or to assess the effects of novice driver training programs on the likelihood of a crash. The authors propose that a much narrower, common set of scenarios can be used to focus on the high-risk crashes of young drivers. Until recently, it was not possible to identify the detailed set of scenarios that were specific to high-risk crashes. However, an integration of police crash reports from previous research, a number of critical simulator studies, and a nationally representative database of serious teen crashes (the National Motor Vehicle Crash Causation Survey) now make identification of these scenarios possible. In this paper, the authors propose this novel approach and discuss how to create a common set of simulated scenarios and skills to assess novice driver performance and the effects of training and interventions as they relate to high-risk crashes. PMID:23543947

  16. Environmental and economic assessment of protected crops in four European scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Torrellas, M.; Antón, A.; Ruijs, M.N.A.; Garcia Victoria, N.; Stanghellini, C.; Montero, J.I.

    2012-01-01

    In this study we analysed the environmental and economic profile of current agricultural practices for greenhouse crops, in cold and warm climates in Europe, using four scenarios as reference systems: tomato crop in a plastic greenhouse in Spain, and in glasshouses in Hungary and the Netherlands, an

  17. TA-54 (Area G) Risk Assessment from Extreme Wildfire Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Linn, Rodman Ray [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Koo, Eunmo [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Honig, Kristen Ann [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); White, Judith [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Funk, David John [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2016-08-10

    Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) and surrounding areas have been exposed to at least four significant wildfires since 1977 and there have been numerous others within 50 miles of LANL. Based on this history, wildfires are considered a risk to LANL facilities and their contents. While many LANL facilities are at risk to wildfire to some degree, they are found in a wide variety of conditions, thus they have varying sensitivities to wildfires. Additionally, LANL facilities have various functions and different assets, so they have a wide range of values or consequences if compromised. Therefore, determining the risks and precautions that are warranted to mitigate these risks must be done on a case-by-case basis. In an effort to assess possible wildfire risks to sensitive materials stored in a Perma-Con® in dome TA-54-0375, a conventional fire risk analysis was performed. This conventional risk analysis is documented in Engineering Evaluation Form AP-FIRE-001-FM1, which is dated 9/28/2015 and was titled ‘Wildland Fire Exposure Evaluation for Building TA-54-0375’ (Hall 2015). This analysis acknowledged that there was significant chance of wildfire in the vicinity of TA-54-0375, but the amount of combustible material surrounding the building was deemed low. The wildland fuels that were closest to the building were largely fine fuels and were not expected to have significant duration of heat release. The prevailing winds at this location are from the south and southwest and the nearest significant upwind fuels (tree crowns or unmown grasses) are at least 300 feet away. Based on these factors the conventional wildland fire risk to TA-54-0375 was deemed minimal, “Acceptable As Is, No Action Required.” This risk evaluation was based on a combined assessment of low probability of wildfires arriving at the site from other directions (where higher fuel loadings might be present) as well as the effective setback of fuels in the direction that fire is

  18. Environmental Impact Assessment of Coal Mining: Indian Scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sribas Goswami

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Coal mining is a development activity, which is bound to damage the natural ecosystem by all its activities direct and ancillary, starting from land acquisition to coal beneficiation and use of the products. This is so because environmental degradation has affected especially the common property resources such as land and water on which depend the subsistence and well-being of the local community. The study area being the foremost coal producing region of the country also ranked high in the record of environmentally degraded region. Huge areas in the Raniganj and Jharia coalfield in India have become ruined due to abandoned and active mine surface and underground mines. In open cast mines, waste resources are usually stacked as huge dumps in the surroundings. These, coupled with coal dumps, cause noteworthy visual impact. Large vicinity of forest, farming land, and pasture land has been transformed into colliery colonies or into uncultivated land due to rapid expansion of the coal mines. As a result, land use pattern has been changed considerably over last three decades. This study is pursued to assess the impact of coal mining activities on local community and environment.

  19. Finding the Optimum Scenario in Risk-benefit Assessment: An Example on Vitamin D

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Berjia, Firew Lemma; Hoekstra, J.; Verhagen, H.;

    2014-01-01

    that provides maximum net health gains. As a common health metric, Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALY) has been used to project the net health effect by using the QALIBRA (Quality of Life for Benefit Risk Assessment) software. Results: The method used in the vitamin D example shows that it is feasible to find...... an optimum scenario that provides maximum net health gain in health risk-benefit assessment of dietary exposure as expressed by serum vitamin D level. With regard to the vitamin D assessment, a considerable health gain is observed due to the reduction of risk of other cause mortality, fall and hip fractures......Background: In risk-benefit assessment of food and nutrients, several studies so far have focused on comparison of two scenarios to weigh the health effect against each other. One obvious next step is finding the optimum scenario that provides maximum net health gains. Aim: This paper aims to show...

  20. Development of exposure scenarios for CERCLA risk assessments at the Savannah River Site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A CERCLA Baseline Risk Assessment (BRA) is performed to determine if there are any potential risks to human health and the environment from waste unit at SRS. The SRS has numerous waste units to evaluate in the RFMU and CMS/FS programs and, in order to provide a consistent approach, four standard exposure scenarios were developed for exposure assessments to be used in human health risk assessments. The standard exposure scenarios are divided into two temporal categories: (a) Current Land Use in the BRA, and (b) Future Land Use in the RERA. The Current Land Use scenarios consist of the evaluation of human health risk for Industrial Exposure (of a worker not involved in waste unit characterization or remediation), a Trespasser, a hypothetical current On-site Resident, and an Off-site Resident. The Future Land Use scenario considers exposure to an On-site Resident following termination of institutional control in the absence of any remedial action (No Action Alternative), as well as evaluating potential remedial alternatives against the four scenarios from the BRA. A critical facet in the development of a BRA or RERA is the scoping of exposure scenarios that reflect actual conditions at a waste unit, rather than using factors such as EPA Standard Default Exposure Scenarios (OSWER Directive 9285.6-03) that are based on upper-bound exposures that tend to reflect worst case conditions. The use of site-specific information for developing risk assessment exposure scenarios will result in a more realistic estimate of Reasonable Maximum Exposure for SRS waste units

  1. Scenario analysis for the postclosure assessment of the Canadian concept for nuclear fuel waste disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    AECL Research has developed and evaluated a concept for disposal of Canada's nuclear fuel waste involving deep underground disposal of the waste in intrusive igneous rock of the Canadian Shield. The postclosure assessment of this concept focusses on the effects on human health and the environment due to potential contaminant releases into the biosphere after the disposal vault is closed. Both radiotoxic and chemically toxic contaminants are considered. One of the steps in the postclosure assessment process is scenario analysis. Scenario analysis identifies factors that could affect the performance of the disposal system and groups these factors into scenarios that require detailed quantitative evaluation. This report documents a systematic procedure for scenario analysis that was developed for the postclosure assessment and then applied to the study of a hypothetical disposal system. The application leads to a comprehensive list of factors and a set of scenarios that require further quantitative study. The application also identifies a number of other factors and potential scenarios that would not contribute significantly to environmental and safety impacts for the hypothetical disposal system. (author). 46 refs., 3 tabs., 3 figs., 2 appendices

  2. US National Climate Assessment (NCA) Scenarios for Assessing Our Climate Future: Issues and Methodological Perspectives Background Whitepaper for Participants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moss, Richard H.; Engle, Nathan L.; Hall, John; Jacobs, Kathy; Lempert, Rob; Mearns, L. O.; Melillo, Jerry; Mote, Phil; O' Brien, Sheila; Rosenzweig, C.; Ruane, Alex; Sheppard, Stephen; Vallario, Robert W.; Wiek, Arnim; Wilbanks, Thomas

    2011-10-01

    This whitepaper is intended to provide a starting point for discussion at a workshop for the National Climate Assessment (NCA) that focuses on the use and development of scenarios. The paper will provide background needed by participants in the workshop in order to review options for developing and using scenarios in NCA. The paper briefly defines key terms and establishes a conceptual framework for developing consistent scenarios across different end uses and spatial scales. It reviews uses of scenarios in past U.S. national assessments and identifies potential users of and needs for scenarios for both the report scheduled for release in June 2013 and to support an ongoing distributed assessment process in sectors and regions around the country. Because scenarios prepared for the NCA will need to leverage existing research, the paper takes account of recent scientific advances and activities that could provide needed inputs. Finally, it considers potential approaches for providing methods, data, and other tools for assessment participants. We note that the term 'scenarios' has many meanings. An important goal of the whitepaper (and portions of the workshop agenda) is pedagogical (i.e., to compare different meanings and uses of the term and make assessment participants aware of the need to be explicit about types and uses of scenarios). In climate change research, scenarios have been used to establish bounds for future climate conditions and resulting effects on human and natural systems, given a defined level of greenhouse gas emissions. This quasi-predictive use contrasts with the way decision analysts typically use scenarios (i.e., to consider how robust alternative decisions or strategies may be to variation in key aspects of the future that are uncertain). As will be discussed, in climate change research and assessment, scenarios describe a range of aspects of the future, including major driving forces (both human activities and natural processes

  3. Scenario-based assessment of buildings damage and population exposure due to tsunamis for the town of Alexandria, Egypt

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pagnoni, G.; Armigliato, A.; Tinti, S.

    2015-08-01

    Alexandria is the second biggest city in Egypt as regards population, is a key economic area in northern Africa and has a very important tourist activity. Historical catalogues indicate that it was severely affected by a number of tsunami events. In this work we assess the tsunami hazard by running numerical simulations of tsunami impact in Alexandria through the Worst-case Credible Tsunami Scenario Analysis (WCTSA). We identify three main seismic sources: the Western Hellenic Arc (WHA - reference event AD 365, Mw = 8.5), the Eastern Hellenic Arc (EHA - reference event 1303, Mw = 8.0) and the Cyprus Arc (CA - hypothetical scenario earthquake with Mw = 8.0), inferred from the tectonic setting and from historical tsunami catalogues. All numerical simulations are carried out by means of the code UBO-TSUFD, developed and maintained by the Tsunami Research Team of the University of Bologna. Relevant tsunami metrics are computed for each scenario and then used to build aggregated fields such as the maximum flood depth and the maximum inundation area. We find that the case that produces the most relevant flooding in Alexandria is the EHA scenario, with wave heights up to 4 m. The aggregate fields are used for a building vulnerability assessment according to a methodology developed in the frame of the EU-FP6 project SCHEMA and further refined in this study, based on the adoption of a suitable building damage matrix and on water inundation depth. It is found that in the districts of El Dekhila and Al Amriyah, to the south-west of the port of Dekhila over 12 000 buildings could be affected and hundreds of them could incur in consequences ranging from important damage to total collapse. It is also found that in the same districts tsunami inundation covers an area of about 15 km2 resulting in more than 150 000 residents being exposed.

  4. Scenario-based assessment of buildings damage and population exposure due to tsunamis for the town of Alexandria, Egypt

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Pagnoni

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Alexandria is the second biggest city in Egypt as regards population, is a key economic area in northern Africa and has a very important tourist activity. Historical catalogues indicate that it was severely affected by a number of tsunami events. In this work we assess the tsunami hazard by running numerical simulations of tsunami impact in Alexandria through the Worst-case Credible Tsunami Scenario Analysis (WCTSA. We identify three main seismic sources: the Western Hellenic Arc (WHA – reference event AD 365, Mw = 8.5, the Eastern Hellenic Arc (EHA – reference event 1303, Mw = 8.0 and the Cyprus Arc (CA – hypothetical scenario earthquake with Mw = 8.0, inferred from the tectonic setting and from historical tsunami catalogues. All numerical simulations are carried out by means of the code UBO-TSUFD, developed and maintained by the Tsunami Research Team of the University of Bologna. Relevant tsunami metrics are computed for each scenario and then used to build aggregated fields such as the maximum flood depth and the maximum inundation area. We find that the case that produces the most relevant flooding in Alexandria is the EHA scenario, with wave heights up to 4 m. The aggregate fields are used for a building vulnerability assessment according to a methodology developed in the frame of the EU-FP6 project SCHEMA and further refined in this study, based on the adoption of a suitable building damage matrix and on water inundation depth. It is found that in the districts of El Dekhila and Al Amriyah, to the south-west of the port of Dekhila over 12 000 buildings could be affected and hundreds of them could incur in consequences ranging from important damage to total collapse. It is also found that in the same districts tsunami inundation covers an area of about 15 km2 resulting in more than 150 000 residents being exposed.

  5. Environmental assessment of low-organic waste landfill scenarios by means of life-cycle assessment modelling (EASEWASTE)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Manfredi, Simone; Christensen, Thomas Højlund; Scharff, H.;

    2010-01-01

    The environmental performance of two low-organic waste landfill scenarios ('low-organic-energy' and 'low-organic-flare') was developed and compared with two household waste landfill scenarios ('household-energy' and 'household-flare') by means of LCA-modelling. The LCA-modelling was made for 1...... tonne of wet waste landfilled and the environmental aspects were evaluated for a 100-year period after disposal. The data utilized in the LCA-calculations to model the first 10-20 years of landfilling of the two low-organic waste scenarios make extensive use of site-specific data from the Nauerna...... assessments show that the low-organic waste scenarios achieved better environmental performance than the household waste scenarios with regard to both ordinary and toxicity-related environmental impact categories. This indicates that the reduction of organic matter accepted at landfills (as prescribed...

  6. Play Hard, Work Harder. Alternative Reality Game and Scenario Based Assessments for Learning.

    OpenAIRE

    Ryan, Barry

    2014-01-01

    In this paper, an evaluative case study is detailed as an example of alternative reality game and scenario based assessments for learning. This pedagogic approach is evaluated and recommendations for practice offered. Integrating technology into the assessment process, and final student product, influenced the chosen pedagogy. The use of technology permitted this assessment approach to be adopted for a medium sized (n=40) student cohort. The use of wikis, eportfolios and digital reflective di...

  7. A Systematic Approach to Explorative Scenario Analysis in Emergy Assessment with Emphasis on Resilience

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kamp, Andreas; Østergård, Hanne

    2016-01-01

    Fossil energy depletion (specifically peak oil) and climate change are imagined to profoundly affect human civilisation. This motivates assessment of resilience, a concept associated with the ability to persist and maintain function. Explorative scenarios may be used to cast light on what......-site renewable inputs, (3) slowly renewable inputs, (4) direct labour and (5) indirect labour. We consider the existing EmA indicators of biophysical efficiency (the unit emergy value, UEV), the degree of dependence on free, renewable, natural flows of energy (%R) and the degree of dependence on local inputs...... systems that rely primarily on on-site renewable resources appear less sensitive to societal changes. The significance of labour inputs varies among scenarios, and a higher percentage of labour inputs leads to increasing UEV in a Green Tech scenario but lower UEV in more radical energy decent scenarios...

  8. Reimbursement of pharmaceuticals: Reference pricing versus health technology assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M. Drummond (Michael); B. Jönsson (Bengt); F.F.H. Rutten (Frans); T. Stargardt (Tom)

    2011-01-01

    textabstractReference pricing and health technology assessment are policies commonly applied in order to obtain more value for money from pharmaceuticals. This study focussed on decisions about the initial price and reimbursement status of innovative drugs and discussed the consequences for market a

  9. Energy reference scenario 2000-2020 for emission calculations of the Federal Bureau of Environment Protection; Energiereferenzszenario 2000-2020 fuer Emissionsberechnungen des Umweltbundesamtes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schaerer, Bernd (comp.)

    2005-12-15

    Not only the measured emission values, but also the calculated emission freight is important in the environmental policy. The reporting of the development of emissions for air pollutants and greenhouse gases for the emission computation is as important as the supply of emission prognoses to the design of the politics of air pollution control. Under this aspect, the author of the contribution under consideration reports on an energy reference scenario for emission computations of the Federal Office for Environment Protection (Dessau-Rosslau, Federal Republic of Germany). The following aspects are described: (a) Development of the energy reference scenario; (b) Framework data for the prognosis; (c) Assumptions to the energy policy and environmental policy; (d) Energy consumption in the energy reference scenario.

  10. Choosing and using climate change scenarios for ecological-impact assessments and conservation decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amy K. Snover,; Nathan J. Mantua,; Littell, Jeremy; Michael A. Alexander,; Michelle M. McClure,; Janet Nye,

    2013-01-01

    Increased concern over climate change is demonstrated by the many efforts to assess climate effects and develop adaptation strategies. Scientists, resource managers, and decision makers are increasingly expected to use climate information, but they struggle with its uncertainty. With the current proliferation of climate simulations and downscaling methods, scientifically credible strategies for selecting a subset for analysis and decision making are needed. Drawing on a rich literature in climate science and impact assessment and on experience working with natural resource scientists and decision makers, we devised guidelines for choosing climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment that recognize irreducible uncertainty in climate projections and address common misconceptions about this uncertainty. This approach involves identifying primary local climate drivers by climate sensitivity of the biological system of interest; determining appropriate sources of information for future changes in those drivers; considering how well processes controlling local climate are spatially resolved; and selecting scenarios based on considering observed emission trends, relative importance of natural climate variability, and risk tolerance and time horizon of the associated decision. The most appropriate scenarios for a particular analysis will not necessarily be the most appropriate for another due to differences in local climate drivers, biophysical linkages to climate, decision characteristics, and how well a model simulates the climate parameters and processes of interest. Given these complexities, we recommend interaction among climate scientists, natural and physical scientists, and decision makers throughout the process of choosing and using climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment.

  11. Assessing the Psychometric Properties of a Scenario-Based Measure of Achievement Guilt and Shame

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Ted; Sharp, Jessica; Alexander, James

    2008-01-01

    In this study, the psychometric properties of the scenario-based Achievement Guilt and Shame Scale (AGSS) were established. The AGSS and scales assessing interpersonal guilt and shame, high standards, overgeneralization, self-criticism, self-esteem, academic self-concept, fear of failure, and tendency to respond in a socially desirable manner were…

  12. Modelling the Virtual Company Educational Scenario Competence Assessment in the Cooper environment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Spoelstra, Howard; Posea, Vlad; Van Bruggen, Jan; Koper, Rob

    2007-01-01

    Spoelstra, H., Posea, V., van Bruggen, J., & Koper, R. (2007, September). Modelling the Virtual Company Educational Scenario Competence Assessment in the Cooper environment. Presentation given at the 1st International Workshop on Collaborative Open Environments for Project-Centered Learning, Crete,

  13. Modeling the Virtual Company Educational Scenario Competence Assessment in the Cooper environment.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Spoelstra, Howard; Posea, Vlad; Van Bruggen, Jan; Koper, Rob

    2007-01-01

    Spoelstra, H., Posea, V., van Bruggen, J., & Koper, R. (2007, September). Modelling the Virtual Company Educational Scenario Competence Assessment in the Cooper environment. Paper presented at the 1st International Workshop on Collaborative Open Environments for Project-Centered Learning, Crete, Gre

  14. Participatory scenario development for integrated assessment of nutrient flows in a Catalan river catchment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Caille

    2007-05-01

    Full Text Available Rivers in developed regions are under significant stress due to nutrient enrichment generated mainly by human activities. Excess nitrogen and phosphorus emissions are the product of complex dynamic systems influenced by various factors such as demographic, socio-economic and technological development. Using a Catalan river catchment, La Tordera (North-East of Spain, as a case study of an integrated and interdisciplinary environmental assessment of nutrient flows, we present and discuss the development of socio-economic scenarios through a participatory process for the sustainable management of the anthropogenic sources of nutrients, nitrogen and phosphorus. In this context, scenarios are an appropriate tool to assist nutrient emissions modelling, and to assess impacts, possible pathways for socio-economic development and associated uncertainties. Evaluated against the 1993–2003 baseline period, scenarios target the 2030 horizon, i.e., through the implementation process of the Water Framework Directive (Directive 2000/60/EC. After a critical examination of the methodology used in the participatory development of socio-economic scenarios, we present four possible futures (or perspectives for the Catalan river catchment conceived by stakeholders invited to a workshop. Keys to the success of such a participatory process were trust, which enhanced openness, and disagreements, which fostered the group's creativity for scenario development. The translation of narrative socio-economic scenarios into meaningful nutrient emission scenarios is also presented. By integrating findings of natural sciences and socio-economic analysis, we aim to assist decision makers and stakeholders in evaluating optimal management strategies for the anthropogenic sources of nitrogen and phosphorus.

  15. Participatory scenario development for integrated assessment of nutrient flows in a Catalan river catchment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Caille

    2007-11-01

    Full Text Available Rivers in developed regions are under significant stress due to nutrient enrichment generated mainly by human activities. Excess nitrogen and phosphorus emissions are the product of complex dynamic systems influenced by various factors such as demographic, socio-economic and technological development. Using a Catalan river catchment, La Tordera (North-East of Spain, as a case study of an integrated and interdisciplinary environmental assessment of nutrient flows, we present and discuss the development of narrative socio-economic scenarios through a participatory process for the sustainable management of the anthropogenic sources of nutrients, nitrogen and phosphorus. In this context, scenarios are an appropriate tool to assist nutrient emissions modelling, and to assess impacts, possible pathways for socio-economic development and associated uncertainties. Evaluated against the 1993–2003 baseline period, scenarios target the 2030 horizon, i.e. through the implementation process of the Water Framework Directive (Directive 2000/60/EC. After a critical examination of the methodology used in the participatory development of socio-economic scenarios, we present four possible futures (or perspectives for the Catalan river catchment conceived by stakeholders invited to a workshop. Keys to the success of such a participatory process were trust, which enhanced openness, and disagreements, which fostered the group's creativity for scenario development. The translation of narrative socio-economic scenarios into meaningful nutrient emission scenarios is also discussed. By integrating findings of natural sciences and socio-economic analysis, we aim to assist decision makers and stakeholders in evaluating optimal management strategies for the anthropogenic sources of nitrogen and phosphorus.

  16. Assessment of municipal solid waste management scenarios in Irkutsk (Russia) using a life cycle assessment-integrated waste management model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tulokhonova, Alisa; Ulanova, Olga

    2013-05-01

    Continuous growth in the quantity of municipal solid waste (MSW) and increasing demands for their environmentally-friendly treatment are one of the main consequences of the growing social and economic development rate in modern society. Despite ecologically sustainable trends in waste management systems around the world, open dumps are still the main waste treatment option in Russia. This study aims to help the local municipality administration in Irkutsk (Russia) identify the most appropriate direction for current waste management and its optimization. Within this study four developed MSW management scenarios were assessed and compared with respect to their ecological, economic and social aspects using a life cycle-based integrated waste management model. The evaluation results of these scenarios show that the development of environmental sustainability and the reduction of social effects lead to an increase in handling of costs of waste. The best scenario, regarding both environmental and social aspects, is scenario four, which includes the separate collection and reprocessing of recyclables in combination with an aerobic mechanical-biological pre-treatment of the residual waste before landfilling. However, this scenario is 3.6 times more expensive than the existing system. The results of all assessed scenarios were further analyzed and recommendations were made to design integrated waste management solutions that are optimal not only from the ecological and social points of view, but which are also realistic within the given economic situation. PMID:23444153

  17. Virtual learning scenarios for qualitative assessment in higher education 3D arts

    OpenAIRE

    Vicent Safont, Lluís; Villagrasa, Sergi; Fonseca Escudero, David; Redondo Domínguez, Ernesto

    2015-01-01

    Using enhanced learning technologies (TEL) including immersive virtual reality environments, we are seeking to achieve a new way of assessing subjects of 3D arts. We have developed a project based on Scenario Centered Curriculum (SCC), where the students have to think, design, convey, validate, and build a civil project using new technologies that help in the assessment process. We have used gamification techniques and game engines to evaluate planned tasks in which students can demonstrate t...

  18. Ensemble flood risk assessment in Europe under high end climate scenarios

    OpenAIRE

    ALFIERI LORENZO; Feyen, Luc; DOTTORI FRANCESCO; BIANCHI ALESSANDRA

    2015-01-01

    At the current rate of global warming, the target of limiting it within 2 degrees by the end of the century seems more and more unrealistic. Policymakers, businesses and organizations leading international negotiations urge the scientific community to provide realistic and accurate assessments of the possible consequences of so called “high end” climate scenarios. This study illustrates a novel procedure to assess the future flood risk in Europe under high levels of warming. It combines e...

  19. Reduced-reference image quality assessment using moment method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Diwei; Shen, Yuantong; Shen, Yongluo; Li, Hongwei

    2016-10-01

    Reduced-reference image quality assessment (RR IQA) aims to evaluate the perceptual quality of a distorted image through partial information of the corresponding reference image. In this paper, a novel RR IQA metric is proposed by using the moment method. We claim that the first and second moments of wavelet coefficients of natural images can have approximate and regular change that are disturbed by different types of distortions, and that this disturbance can be relevant to human perceptions of quality. We measure the difference of these statistical parameters between reference and distorted image to predict the visual quality degradation. The introduced IQA metric is suitable for implementation and has relatively low computational complexity. The experimental results on Laboratory for Image and Video Engineering (LIVE) and Tampere Image Database (TID) image databases indicate that the proposed metric has a good predictive performance.

  20. Environmental implications of large-scale adoption of wind power: a scenario-based life cycle assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    We investigate the potential environmental impacts of a large-scale adoption of wind power to meet up to 22% of the world’s growing electricity demand. The analysis builds on life cycle assessments of generic onshore and offshore wind farms, meant to represent average conditions for global deployment of wind power. We scale unit-based findings to estimate aggregated emissions of building, operating and decommissioning wind farms toward 2050, taking into account changes in the electricity mix in manufacturing. The energy scenarios investigated are the International Energy Agency’s BLUE scenarios. We estimate 1.7–2.6 Gt CO2-eq climate change, 2.1–3.2 Mt N-eq marine eutrophication, 9.2–14 Mt NMVOC photochemical oxidant formation, and 9.5–15 Mt SO2-eq terrestrial acidification impact category indicators due to global wind power in 2007–50. Assuming lifetimes 5 yr longer than reference, the total climate change indicator values are reduced by 8%. In the BLUE Map scenario, construction of new capacity contributes 64%, and repowering of existing capacity 38%, to total cumulative greenhouse gas emissions. The total emissions of wind electricity range between 4% and 14% of the direct emissions of the replaced fossil-fueled power plants. For all impact categories, the indirect emissions of displaced fossil power are larger than the total emissions caused by wind power.

  1. Environmental assessment of amine-based carbon capture Scenario modelling with life cycle assessment (LCA)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brekke, Andreas; Askham, Cecilia; Modahl, Ingunn Saur; Vold, Bjoern Ivar; Johnsen, Fredrik Moltu

    2012-07-01

    This report contains a first attempt at introducing the environmental impacts associated with amines and derivatives in a life cycle assessment (LCA) of gas power production with carbon capture and comparing these with other environmental impacts associated with the production system. The report aims to identify data gaps and methodological challenges connected both to modelling toxicity of amines and derivatives and weighting of environmental impacts. A scenario based modelling exercise was performed on a theoretical gas power plant with carbon capture, where emission levels of nitrosamines were varied between zero (gas power without CCS) to a worst case level (outside the probable range of actual carbon capture facilities). Because of extensive research and development in the areas of solvents and emissions from carbon capture facilities in the latter years, data used in the exercise may be outdated and results should therefore not be taken at face value.The results from the exercise showed: According to UseTox, emissions of nitrosamines are less important than emissions of formaldehyde with regard to toxicity related to operation of (i.e. both inputs to and outputs from) a carbon capture facility. If characterisation factors for emissions of metals are included, these outweigh all other toxic emissions in the study. None of the most recent weighting methods in LCA include characterisation factors for nitrosamines, and these are therefore not part of the environmental ranking.These results shows that the EDecIDe project has an important role to play in developing LCA methodology useful for assessing the environmental performance of amine based carbon capture in particular and CCS in general. The EDecIDe project will examine the toxicity models used in LCA in more detail, specifically UseTox. The applicability of the LCA compartment models and site specificity issues for a Norwegian/Arctic situation will be explored. This applies to the environmental compartments

  2. Developing scenarios to assess future landslide risks: a model-based approach applied to mountainous regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vacquie, Laure; Houet, Thomas

    2016-04-01

    In the last century, European mountain landscapes have experienced significant transformations. Natural and anthropogenic changes, climate changes, touristic and industrial development, socio-economic interactions, and their implications in terms of LUCC (land use and land cover changes) have directly influenced the spatial organization and vulnerability of mountain landscapes. This study is conducted as part of the SAMCO project founded by the French National Science Agency (ANR). It aims at developing a methodological approach, combining various tools, modelling platforms and methods, to identify vulnerable regions to landslide hazards accounting for futures LUCC. It presents an integrated approach combining participative scenarios and a LULC changes simulation models to assess the combined effects of LUCC and climate change on landslide risks in the Cauterets valley (French Pyrenees Mountains) up to 2100. Through vulnerability and risk mapping, the objective is to gather information to support landscape planning and implement land use strategies with local stakeholders for risk management. Four contrasting scenarios are developed and exhibit contrasting trajectories of socio-economic development. Prospective scenarios are based on national and international socio-economic contexts relying on existing assessment reports. The methodological approach integrates knowledge from local stakeholders to refine each scenario during their construction and to reinforce their plausibility and relevance by accounting for local specificities, e.g. logging and pastoral activities, touristic development, urban planning, etc. A process-based model, the Forecasting Scenarios for Mountains (ForeSceM) model, developed on the Dinamica Ego modelling platform is used to spatially allocate futures LUCC for each prospective scenario. Concurrently, a spatial decision support tool, i.e. the SYLVACCESS model, is used to identify accessible areas for forestry in scenario projecting logging

  3. Scenario Methodology for Modelling of Future Landscape Developments as Basis for Assessing Ecosystem Services

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthias Rosenberg

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available The ecosystems of our intensively used European landscapes produce a variety of natural goods and services for the benefit of humankind, and secure the basics and quality of life. Because these ecosystems are still undergoing fundamental changes, the interest of the society is to know more about future developments and their ecological impacts. To describe and analyze these changes, scenarios can be developed and an assessment of the ecological changes can be carried out subsequently. In the project „Landscape Saxony 2050“; a methodology for the construction of exploratory scenarios was worked out. The presented methodology provides a possibility to identify the driving forces (socio-cultural, economic and ecological conditions of the landscape development. It allows to indicate possible future paths which lead to a change of structures and processes in the landscape and can influence the capability to provide ecosystem services. One essential component of the applied technique is that an approach for the assessment of the effects of the landscape changes on ecosystem services is integrated into the developed scenario methodology. Another is, that the methodology is strong designed as participatory, i.e. stakeholders are integrated actively. The method is a seven phase model which provides the option for the integration of the stakeholders‘ participation at all levels of scenario development. The scenario framework was applied to the district of Görlitz, an area of 2100 sq km located at the eastern border of Germany. The region is affected by strong demographic as well as economic changes. The core issue focused on the examination of landscape change in terms of biodiversity. Together with stakeholders, a trend scenario and two alternative scenarios were developed. The changes of the landscape structure are represented in story lines, maps and tables. On basis of the driving forces of the issue areas „cultural / social values“ and

  4. An inquiry into the potential of scenario analysis for dealing with uncertainty in strategic environmental assessment in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Strategic environmental assessment (SEA) inherently needs to address greater levels of uncertainty in the formulation and implementation processes of strategic decisions, compared with project environmental impact assessment. The range of uncertainties includes internal and external factors of the complex system that is concerned in the strategy. Scenario analysis is increasingly being used to cope with uncertainty in SEA. Following a brief introduction of scenarios and scenario analysis, this paper examines the rationale for scenario analysis in SEA in the context of China. The state of the art associated with scenario analysis applied to SEA in China was reviewed through four SEA case analyses. Lessons learned from these cases indicated the word 'scenario' appears to be abused and the scenario-based methods appear to be misused due to the lack of understanding of an uncertain future and scenario analysis. However, good experiences were also drawn on, regarding how to integrate scenario analysis into the SEA process in China, how to cope with driving forces including uncertainties, how to combine qualitative scenario storylines with quantitative impact predictions, and how to conduct assessments and propose recommendations based on scenarios. Additionally, the ways to improve the application of this tool in SEA were suggested. We concluded by calling for further methodological research on this issue and more practices.

  5. The EnerGEO Platform of Integrated Assessment (PIA). Environmental assessment of scenarios as a web service

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    With the International Energy Agency estimating that global energy demand will increase between 40 and 50 percent by 2030 (compared to 2003), scientists and policymakers are concerned about the sustainability of the current energy system and what environmental pressures might result from the development of future energy systems. EnerGEO is an ongoing FP7 Project (2009-2013) which assesses the current and future impact of energy use on the environment by linking environmental observation systems with the processes involved in exploiting energy resources. The idea of this European project is to determine how low carbon scenarios, and in particular scenarios with a high share of renewable electricity, affect emissions of air pollutants and greenhouse gases (GHG) and contribute to mitigation of negative energy system impacts on human health and ecosystems. A Platform of Integrated Assessment (PIA) has been elaborated to provide impact results for a selection of scenarios via a set of models (large-scale energy models, Life Cycle Assessment models,..). This PIA is currently available through a web service. The concept of the PIA is detailed and to illustrate its interest, a set of results is given with the use of the simulation mode of the European version of GAINS for a selection of scenarios. (orig.)

  6. Safety case methodology for decommissioning of research reactors. Assessment of the long term impact of a flooding scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The paper contains the assessment methodology of a Safety Case fuel decommissioning of research reactors, taking into account the international approach principles. The paper also includes the assessment of a flooding scenario for a decommissioned research reactor (stage 1 of decommissioning). The scenario presents the flooding of reactor basement, radionuclide migration through environment and long term radiological impact for public. (authors)

  7. Safety case for the disposal of spent nuclear fuel at Olkiluoto. Assessment of radionuclide release scenarios for the repository system 2012

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2012-12-15

    , taking into account the uncertainty in timing and in the number of canisters potentially affected. Peak normalised releases for all calculation cases for the base, variant and disturbance scenarios are below the nuclide-specific constraints for the radioactive releases to the environment, as set out by the Finnish regulator, generally by more than an order of magnitude, even taking into account the possibility of multiple canister failures. Possible binary combinations of scenarios have been considered. Many can be excluded from detailed analysis on qualitative grounds. Where it is appropriate to sum the release rate of two different scenarios, the combined release rate to the surface environment still does not exceed the regulatory constraint. Finnish regulations also require an assessment of doses to humans, plants and animals, which should extend over a period in which such an assessment can be performed with sufficient reliability, with a minimum of several millennia. As a consequence, the period up to 10,000 years is referred to by Posiva as the dose criteria time window. Releases to the surface environment within the dose criteria time window are found to occur in the base scenario Reference Case, in some sensitivity cases for the base and variant scenarios and in one what-if case for the disturbance scenarios (AIC-LI). Biosphere modelling is carried out for these calculation cases and reported in Biosphere Assessment. (orig.)

  8. Safety case for the disposal of spent nuclear fuel at Olkiluoto. Assessment of radionuclide release scenarios for the repository system 2012

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    account the uncertainty in timing and in the number of canisters potentially affected. Peak normalised releases for all calculation cases for the base, variant and disturbance scenarios are below the nuclide-specific constraints for the radioactive releases to the environment, as set out by the Finnish regulator, generally by more than an order of magnitude, even taking into account the possibility of multiple canister failures. Possible binary combinations of scenarios have been considered. Many can be excluded from detailed analysis on qualitative grounds. Where it is appropriate to sum the release rate of two different scenarios, the combined release rate to the surface environment still does not exceed the regulatory constraint. Finnish regulations also require an assessment of doses to humans, plants and animals, which should extend over a period in which such an assessment can be performed with sufficient reliability, with a minimum of several millennia. As a consequence, the period up to 10,000 years is referred to by Posiva as the dose criteria time window. Releases to the surface environment within the dose criteria time window are found to occur in the base scenario Reference Case, in some sensitivity cases for the base and variant scenarios and in one what-if case for the disturbance scenarios (AIC-LI). Biosphere modelling is carried out for these calculation cases and reported in Biosphere Assessment. (orig.)

  9. A hybrid approach to incorporating climate change and variability into climate scenario for impact assessments

    OpenAIRE

    Gebretsadik, Yohannes; Strzepek, Kenneth; Schlosser, C. Adam

    2014-01-01

    Traditional 'delta-change' approach of scenario generation for climate change impact assessment to water resources strongly depends on the selected base-case observed historical climate conditions that the climate shocks are to be super-imposed. This method disregards the combined effect of climate change and the inherent hydro-climatological variability in the system. Here we demonstrated a hybrid uncertainty approach in which uncertainties in historical climate variability are combined with...

  10. Scenario for a Short-Term Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) in Chiayi, Taiwan

    OpenAIRE

    Chung-Han Chan; Yih-Min Wu; Chin-Tung Cheng; Po-Shen Lin; and Yuan-Chieh Wu

    2013-01-01

    Using seismic activity and the Meishan earthquake sequence that occurred from 1904 to 1906, a scenario for short-term probabilistic seismic hazards in the Chiayi region of Taiwan is assessed. The long-term earthquake occurrence rate in Taiwan was evaluated using a smoothing kernel. The highest seismicity rate was calculated around the Chiayi region. To consider earthquake interactions, the rate-and-state friction model was introduced to estimate the seismicity rate evolution due to the Coulom...

  11. A Methodology for Integrated, Multiregional Life Cycle Assessment Scenarios under Large-Scale Technological Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gibon, Thomas; Wood, Richard; Arvesen, Anders; Bergesen, Joseph D; Suh, Sangwon; Hertwich, Edgar G

    2015-09-15

    Climate change mitigation demands large-scale technological change on a global level and, if successfully implemented, will significantly affect how products and services are produced and consumed. In order to anticipate the life cycle environmental impacts of products under climate mitigation scenarios, we present the modeling framework of an integrated hybrid life cycle assessment model covering nine world regions. Life cycle assessment databases and multiregional input-output tables are adapted using forecasted changes in technology and resources up to 2050 under a 2 °C scenario. We call the result of this modeling "technology hybridized environmental-economic model with integrated scenarios" (THEMIS). As a case study, we apply THEMIS in an integrated environmental assessment of concentrating solar power. Life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions for this plant range from 33 to 95 g CO2 eq./kWh across different world regions in 2010, falling to 30-87 g CO2 eq./kWh in 2050. Using regional life cycle data yields insightful results. More generally, these results also highlight the need for systematic life cycle frameworks that capture the actual consequences and feedback effects of large-scale policies in the long term. PMID:26308384

  12. A study on the development of reference model for performance assessment in a low-and intermediate level radioactive waste disposal site

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Keon Jae; Park, JIn Baek; Cheong, Hae Yong; Song, Min Cheol [Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Taejon (Korea, Republic of)

    1999-03-15

    Review of the development of the scenario for performance assessment : construction of the composition and characteristic analysis of the conceptual radioactive waste disposal facility, reestablishment of the scenario for performance assessment, development of reference model for performance assessment. Sensitivity analysis of the sub-model uncertainty in the scenario of Korean radioactive waste disposal site : sensitivity analysis of the groundwater flow, analysis of the variation of the radionuclide concentration and flux depending on the various scenario of the sub-model, analysis of the variation of the annual effective dose depending various scenario of the sub-model. Review of the plan on the application of the variability analysis of disposal alternatives : review of the characteristic of the TIME4-VANDAL, identification of the problems and the plan on the application of the TIME4-VANDAL.

  13. When Do We Use "They" to Refer to Two Individuals? Scenario Mapping as a Basis for Equivalence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moxey, Linda M.; Sanford, Anthony J.; Wood, Andrew I.; Ginter, Linden M. N.

    2011-01-01

    When two individual characters are introduced in discourse, it is often, but not always, possible to make anaphoric reference to them as a complex reference object via a plural pronoun. According to the Equivalence hypothesis, the circumstances under which such reference is possible depend on the equivalence of the characters. Various factors have…

  14. TURVA-2012: Assessment of radionuclide release scenarios for the repository system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    TURVA-2012 is Posiva's safety case in support of the Preliminary Safety Analysis Report (PSAR) and application for a construction licence for a repository for disposal of spent nuclear fuel at the Olkiluoto site in south-western Finland. This paper gives a summary of the analyses of the radionuclide release scenarios formulated in a companion paper, TURVA-2012: Formulation of Radionuclide Release Scenarios (Marcos, 2014). The scenarios and the analyses take into account major uncertainties in the initial state of the barriers and possible paths for the evolution of the repository system identified in a further paper: TURVA-2012: Performance Assessment (Hellae, 2014). For each scenario, calculation cases are analysed to evaluate compliance of the proposed repository with regulatory requirements on radiological protection, as well as to illustrate the impact of specific uncertainties or combinations of uncertainties on the calculated results. Each case illustrates different possibilities for how the repository might evolve and perform over time, taking into account uncertainties in the models and parameter values used to represent radionuclide release, retention and transport and, for biosphere assessment calculation cases, radiation exposure. The calculation cases each address a single, failed canister, where three possible modes of failure are considered: - The presence of an initial defect in the copper overpack of the canister that penetrates the overpack completely (subsequent corrosion of the insert may then lead to an enlargement of the defect). - Corrosion of the copper overpack, which occurs most rapidly in scenarios in which buffer density is reduced, e.g. by erosion. - Shear movements on fractures intersecting the deposition holes. However, the likelihood and consequences of more than one canister failure occurring during the assessment time fame are also considered, generally based on the findings from the single canister calculations. Quantitative

  15. Towards a global water scarcity risk assessment framework: using scenarios and risk distributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veldkamp, Ted; Wada, Yoshihide; Aerts, Jeroen; Ward, Philip

    2016-04-01

    Over the past decades, changing hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions have led to increased water scarcity problems. A large number of studies have shown that these water scarcity conditions will worsen in the near future. Despite numerous calls for risk-based assessments of water scarcity, a framework that includes UNISDR's definition of risk does not yet exist at the global scale. This study provides a first step towards such a risk-based assessment, applying a Gamma distribution to estimate water scarcity conditions at the global scale under historic and future conditions, using multiple climate change projections and socioeconomic scenarios. Our study highlights that water scarcity risk increases given all future scenarios, up to >56.2% of the global population in 2080. Looking at the drivers of risk, we find that population growth outweigh the impacts of climate change at global and regional scales. Using a risk-based method to assess water scarcity in terms of Expected Annual Exposed Population, we show the results to be less sensitive than traditional water scarcity assessments to the use of fixed threshold to represent different levels of water scarcity. This becomes especially important when moving from global to local scales, whereby deviations increase up to 50% of estimated risk levels. Covering hazard, exposure, and vulnerability, risk-based methods are well-suited to assess water scarcity adaptation. Completing the presented risk framework therefore offers water managers a promising perspective to increase water security in a well-informed and adaptive manner.

  16. Spatial uncertainty assessment in modelling reference evapotranspiration at regional scale

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Buttafuoco

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Evapotranspiration is one of the major components of the water balance and has been identified as a key factor in hydrological modelling. For this reason, several methods have been developed to calculate the reference evapotranspiration (ET0. In modelling reference evapotranspiration it is inevitable that both model and data input will present some uncertainty. Whatever model is used, the errors in the input will propagate to the output of the calculated ET0. Neglecting information about estimation uncertainty, however, may lead to improper decision-making and water resources management. One geostatistical approach to spatial analysis is stochastic simulation, which draws alternative and equally probable, realizations of a regionalized variable. Differences between the realizations provide a measure of spatial uncertainty and allow to carry out an error propagation analysis. Among the evapotranspiration models, the Hargreaves-Samani model was used.

    The aim of this paper was to assess spatial uncertainty of a monthly reference evapotranspiration model resulting from the uncertainties in the input attributes (mainly temperature at regional scale. A case study was presented for Calabria region (southern Italy. Temperature data were jointly simulated by conditional turning bands simulation with elevation as external drift and 500 realizations were generated.

    The ET0 was then estimated for each set of the 500 realizations of the input variables, and the ensemble of the model outputs was used to infer the reference evapotranspiration probability distribution function. This approach allowed to delineate the areas characterized by greater uncertainty, to improve supplementary sampling strategies and ET0 value predictions.

  17. No-reference quality assessment based on visual perception

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Junshan; Yang, Yawei; Hu, Shuangyan; Zhang, Jiao

    2014-11-01

    The visual quality assessment of images/videos is an ongoing hot research topic, which has become more and more important for numerous image and video processing applications with the rapid development of digital imaging and communication technologies. The goal of image quality assessment (IQA) algorithms is to automatically assess the quality of images/videos in agreement with human quality judgments. Up to now, two kinds of models have been used for IQA, namely full-reference (FR) and no-reference (NR) models. For FR models, IQA algorithms interpret image quality as fidelity or similarity with a perfect image in some perceptual space. However, the reference image is not available in many practical applications, and a NR IQA approach is desired. Considering natural vision as optimized by the millions of years of evolutionary pressure, many methods attempt to achieve consistency in quality prediction by modeling salient physiological and psychological features of the human visual system (HVS). To reach this goal, researchers try to simulate HVS with image sparsity coding and supervised machine learning, which are two main features of HVS. A typical HVS captures the scenes by sparsity coding, and uses experienced knowledge to apperceive objects. In this paper, we propose a novel IQA approach based on visual perception. Firstly, a standard model of HVS is studied and analyzed, and the sparse representation of image is accomplished with the model; and then, the mapping correlation between sparse codes and subjective quality scores is trained with the regression technique of least squaresupport vector machine (LS-SVM), which gains the regressor that can predict the image quality; the visual metric of image is predicted with the trained regressor at last. We validate the performance of proposed approach on Laboratory for Image and Video Engineering (LIVE) database, the specific contents of the type of distortions present in the database are: 227 images of JPEG2000, 233

  18. Climate change impact assessment on Veneto and Friuli plain groundwater. Part I: An integrated modeling approach for hazard scenario construction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baruffi, F. [Autorita di Bacino dei Fiumi dell' Alto Adriatico, Cannaregio 4314, 30121 Venice (Italy); Cisotto, A., E-mail: segreteria@adbve.it [Autorita di Bacino dei Fiumi dell' Alto Adriatico, Cannaregio 4314, 30121 Venice (Italy); Cimolino, A.; Ferri, M.; Monego, M.; Norbiato, D.; Cappelletto, M.; Bisaglia, M. [Autorita di Bacino dei Fiumi dell' Alto Adriatico, Cannaregio 4314, 30121 Venice (Italy); Pretner, A.; Galli, A. [SGI Studio Galli Ingegneria, via della Provvidenza 13, 35030 Sarmeola di Rubano (PD) (Italy); Scarinci, A., E-mail: andrea.scarinci@sgi-spa.it [SGI Studio Galli Ingegneria, via della Provvidenza 13, 35030 Sarmeola di Rubano (PD) (Italy); Marsala, V.; Panelli, C. [SGI Studio Galli Ingegneria, via della Provvidenza 13, 35030 Sarmeola di Rubano (PD) (Italy); Gualdi, S., E-mail: silvio.gualdi@bo.ingv.it [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), via Augusto Imperatore 16, 73100 Lecce (Italy); Bucchignani, E., E-mail: e.bucchignani@cira.it [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), via Augusto Imperatore 16, 73100 Lecce (Italy); Torresan, S., E-mail: torresan@cmcc.it [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), via Augusto Imperatore 16, 73100 Lecce (Italy); Pasini, S., E-mail: sara.pasini@stud.unive.it [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), via Augusto Imperatore 16, 73100 Lecce (Italy); Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistics, University Ca' Foscari Venice, Calle Larga S. Marta 2137, 30123 Venice (Italy); Critto, A., E-mail: critto@unive.it [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), via Augusto Imperatore 16, 73100 Lecce (Italy); Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistics, University Ca' Foscari Venice, Calle Larga S. Marta 2137, 30123 Venice (Italy); and others

    2012-12-01

    Climate change impacts on water resources, particularly groundwater, is a highly debated topic worldwide, triggering international attention and interest from both researchers and policy makers due to its relevant link with European water policy directives (e.g. 2000/60/EC and 2007/118/EC) and related environmental objectives. The understanding of long-term impacts of climate variability and change is therefore a key challenge in order to address effective protection measures and to implement sustainable management of water resources. This paper presents the modeling approach adopted within the Life + project TRUST (Tool for Regional-scale assessment of groUndwater Storage improvement in adaptation to climaTe change) in order to provide climate change hazard scenarios for the shallow groundwater of high Veneto and Friuli Plain, Northern Italy. Given the aim to evaluate potential impacts on water quantity and quality (e.g. groundwater level variation, decrease of water availability for irrigation, variations of nitrate infiltration processes), the modeling approach integrated an ensemble of climate, hydrologic and hydrogeologic models running from the global to the regional scale. Global and regional climate models and downscaling techniques were used to make climate simulations for the reference period 1961-1990 and the projection period 2010-2100. The simulation of the recent climate was performed using observed radiative forcings, whereas the projections have been done prescribing the radiative forcings according to the IPCC A1B emission scenario. The climate simulations and the downscaling, then, provided the precipitation, temperatures and evapo-transpiration fields used for the impact analysis. Based on downscaled climate projections, 3 reference scenarios for the period 2071-2100 (i.e. the driest, the wettest and the mild year) were selected and used to run a regional geomorphoclimatic and hydrogeological model. The final output of the model ensemble produced

  19. Climate change impact assessment on Veneto and Friuli plain groundwater. Part I: An integrated modeling approach for hazard scenario construction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Climate change impacts on water resources, particularly groundwater, is a highly debated topic worldwide, triggering international attention and interest from both researchers and policy makers due to its relevant link with European water policy directives (e.g. 2000/60/EC and 2007/118/EC) and related environmental objectives. The understanding of long-term impacts of climate variability and change is therefore a key challenge in order to address effective protection measures and to implement sustainable management of water resources. This paper presents the modeling approach adopted within the Life + project TRUST (Tool for Regional-scale assessment of groUndwater Storage improvement in adaptation to climaTe change) in order to provide climate change hazard scenarios for the shallow groundwater of high Veneto and Friuli Plain, Northern Italy. Given the aim to evaluate potential impacts on water quantity and quality (e.g. groundwater level variation, decrease of water availability for irrigation, variations of nitrate infiltration processes), the modeling approach integrated an ensemble of climate, hydrologic and hydrogeologic models running from the global to the regional scale. Global and regional climate models and downscaling techniques were used to make climate simulations for the reference period 1961–1990 and the projection period 2010–2100. The simulation of the recent climate was performed using observed radiative forcings, whereas the projections have been done prescribing the radiative forcings according to the IPCC A1B emission scenario. The climate simulations and the downscaling, then, provided the precipitation, temperatures and evapo-transpiration fields used for the impact analysis. Based on downscaled climate projections, 3 reference scenarios for the period 2071–2100 (i.e. the driest, the wettest and the mild year) were selected and used to run a regional geomorphoclimatic and hydrogeological model. The final output of the model ensemble

  20. Scenario for a Short-Term Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA in Chiayi, Taiwan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chung-Han Chan

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Using seismic activity and the Meishan earthquake sequence that occurred from 1904 to 1906, a scenario for short-term probabilistic seismic hazards in the Chiayi region of Taiwan is assessed. The long-term earthquake occurrence rate in Taiwan was evaluated using a smoothing kernel. The highest seismicity rate was calculated around the Chiayi region. To consider earthquake interactions, the rate-and-state friction model was introduced to estimate the seismicity rate evolution due to the Coulomb stress change. As imparted by the 1904 Touliu earthquake, stress changes near the 1906 Meishan and Yangshuigang epicenters was higher than the magnitude of tidal triggering. With regard to the impact of the Meishan earthquake, the region close to the Yangshuigang earthquake epicenter had a +0.75 bar stress increase. The results indicated significant interaction between the three damage events. Considering the path and site effect using ground motion prediction equations, a probabilistic seismic hazard in the form of a hazard evolution and a hazard map was assessed. A significant elevation in hazards following the three earthquakes in the sequence was determined. The results illustrate a possible scenario for seismic hazards in the Chiayi region which may take place repeatly in the future. Such scenario provides essential information on earthquake preparation, devastation estimations, emergency sheltering, utility restoration, and structure reconstruction.

  1. Quantitative assessment of safety barrier performance in the prevention of domino scenarios triggered by fire

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The evolution of domino scenarios triggered by fire critically depends on the presence and the performance of safety barriers that may have the potential to prevent escalation, delaying or avoiding the heat-up of secondary targets. The aim of the present study is the quantitative assessment of safety barrier performance in preventing the escalation of fired domino scenarios. A LOPA (layer of protection analysis) based methodology, aimed at the definition and quantification of safety barrier performance in the prevention of escalation was developed. Data on the more common types of safety barriers were obtained in order to characterize the effectiveness and probability of failure on demand of relevant safety barriers. The methodology was exemplified with a case study. The results obtained define a procedure for the estimation of safety barrier performance in the prevention of fire escalation in domino scenarios. - Highlights: • We developed a methodology for the quantitative assessment of safety barriers. • We focused on safety barriers aimed at preventing domino effect triggered by fire. • We obtained data on effectiveness and availability of the safety barriers. • The methodology was exemplified with a case study of industrial interest. • The results showed the role of safety barriers in preventing fired domino escalation

  2. Scenario-based earthquake hazard and risk assessment for Baku (Azerbaijan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Babayev

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available A rapid growth of population, intensive civil and industrial building, land and water instabilities (e.g. landslides, significant underground water level fluctuations, and the lack of public awareness regarding seismic hazard contribute to the increase of vulnerability of Baku (the capital city of the Republic of Azerbaijan to earthquakes. In this study, we assess an earthquake risk in the city determined as a convolution of seismic hazard (in terms of the surface peak ground acceleration, PGA, vulnerability (due to building construction fragility, population features, the gross domestic product per capita, and landslide's occurrence, and exposure of infrastructure and critical facilities. The earthquake risk assessment provides useful information to identify the factors influencing the risk. A deterministic seismic hazard for Baku is analysed for four earthquake scenarios: near, far, local, and extreme events. The seismic hazard models demonstrate the level of ground shaking in the city: PGA high values are predicted in the southern coastal and north-eastern parts of the city and in some parts of the downtown. The PGA attains its maximal values for the local and extreme earthquake scenarios. We show that the quality of buildings and the probability of their damage, the distribution of urban population, exposure, and the pattern of peak ground acceleration contribute to the seismic risk, meanwhile the vulnerability factors play a more prominent role for all earthquake scenarios. Our results can allow elaborating strategic countermeasure plans for the earthquake risk mitigation in the Baku city.

  3. Assessing Interventions to Manage West Nile Virus Using Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis with Risk Scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hongoh, Valerie; Campagna, Céline; Panic, Mirna; Samuel, Onil; Gosselin, Pierre; Waaub, Jean-Philippe; Ravel, André; Samoura, Karim; Michel, Pascal

    2016-01-01

    The recent emergence of West Nile virus (WNV) in North America highlights vulnerability to climate sensitive diseases and stresses the importance of preventive efforts to reduce their public health impact. Effective prevention involves reducing environmental risk of exposure and increasing adoption of preventive behaviours, both of which depend on knowledge and acceptance of such measures. When making operational decisions about disease prevention and control, public health must take into account a wide range of operational, environmental, social and economic considerations in addition to intervention effectiveness. The current study aimed to identify, assess and rank possible risk reduction measures taking into account a broad set of criteria and perspectives applicable to the management of WNV in Quebec under increasing transmission risk scenarios, some of which may be related to ongoing warming in higher-latitude regions. A participatory approach was used to collect information on categories of concern to relevant stakeholders with respect to WNV prevention and control. Multi-criteria decision analysis was applied to examine stakeholder perspectives and their effect on strategy rankings under increasing transmission risk scenarios. Twenty-three preventive interventions were retained for evaluation using eighteen criteria identified by stakeholders. Combined evaluations revealed that, at an individual-level, inspecting window screen integrity, wearing light colored, long clothing, eliminating peridomestic larval sites and reducing outdoor activities at peak times were top interventions under six WNV transmission scenarios. At a regional-level, the use of larvicides was a preferred strategy in five out of six scenarios, while use of adulticides and dissemination of sterile male mosquitoes were found to be among the least favoured interventions in almost all scenarios. Our findings suggest that continued public health efforts aimed at reinforcing individual

  4. Assessing Interventions to Manage West Nile Virus Using Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis with Risk Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hongoh, Valerie; Campagna, Céline; Panic, Mirna; Samuel, Onil; Gosselin, Pierre; Waaub, Jean-Philippe; Ravel, André; Samoura, Karim; Michel, Pascal

    2016-01-01

    The recent emergence of West Nile virus (WNV) in North America highlights vulnerability to climate sensitive diseases and stresses the importance of preventive efforts to reduce their public health impact. Effective prevention involves reducing environmental risk of exposure and increasing adoption of preventive behaviours, both of which depend on knowledge and acceptance of such measures. When making operational decisions about disease prevention and control, public health must take into account a wide range of operational, environmental, social and economic considerations in addition to intervention effectiveness. The current study aimed to identify, assess and rank possible risk reduction measures taking into account a broad set of criteria and perspectives applicable to the management of WNV in Quebec under increasing transmission risk scenarios, some of which may be related to ongoing warming in higher-latitude regions. A participatory approach was used to collect information on categories of concern to relevant stakeholders with respect to WNV prevention and control. Multi-criteria decision analysis was applied to examine stakeholder perspectives and their effect on strategy rankings under increasing transmission risk scenarios. Twenty-three preventive interventions were retained for evaluation using eighteen criteria identified by stakeholders. Combined evaluations revealed that, at an individual-level, inspecting window screen integrity, wearing light colored, long clothing, eliminating peridomestic larval sites and reducing outdoor activities at peak times were top interventions under six WNV transmission scenarios. At a regional-level, the use of larvicides was a preferred strategy in five out of six scenarios, while use of adulticides and dissemination of sterile male mosquitoes were found to be among the least favoured interventions in almost all scenarios. Our findings suggest that continued public health efforts aimed at reinforcing individual

  5. Scenarios of Future Water use on Mediterranean Islands based on an Integrated Assessment of Water Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lange, M. A.

    2006-12-01

    The availability of water in sufficient quantities and adequate quality presents considerable problems on Mediterranean islands. Because of their isolation and thus the impossibility to draw on more distant or more divers aquifers, they rely entirely on precipitation as natural replenishing mechanism. Recent observations indicate decreasing precipitation, increasing evaporation and steadily growing demand for water on the islands. Future climate change will exacerbate this problem, thus increasing the already pertinent vulnerability to droughts. Responsible planning of water management strategies requires scenarios of future supply and demand through an integrated assessment including climate scenarios based on regional climate modeling as well as scenarios on changes in societal and economical determinants of water demand. Constructing such strategies necessitates a thorough understanding about the interdependencies and feedbacks between physical/hydrological and socio-economic determinants of water balances on an island. This has to be based on a solid understanding of past and present developments of these drivers. In the framework of the EU-funded MEDIS project (Towards sustainable water use on Mediterranean Islands: addressing conflicting demands and varying hydrological, social and economic conditions, EVK1-CT-2001-00092), detailed investigations on present vulnerabilities and adaptation strategies to droughts have been carried out on Mallorca, Corsica, Sicily, Crete and Cyprus. This was based on an interdisciplinary study design including hydrological, geophysical, agricultural-, social and political sciences investigations. A central element of the study has been the close interaction with stakeholders on the islands and their contribution to strategy formulation. An important result has been a specification of vulnerability components including: a physical/environmental-, an economical/regulatory- and a social/institutional/political component. Their

  6. Assessing Interventions to Manage West Nile Virus Using Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis with Risk Scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hongoh, Valerie; Campagna, Céline; Panic, Mirna; Samuel, Onil; Gosselin, Pierre; Waaub, Jean-Philippe; Ravel, André; Samoura, Karim; Michel, Pascal

    2016-01-01

    The recent emergence of West Nile virus (WNV) in North America highlights vulnerability to climate sensitive diseases and stresses the importance of preventive efforts to reduce their public health impact. Effective prevention involves reducing environmental risk of exposure and increasing adoption of preventive behaviours, both of which depend on knowledge and acceptance of such measures. When making operational decisions about disease prevention and control, public health must take into account a wide range of operational, environmental, social and economic considerations in addition to intervention effectiveness. The current study aimed to identify, assess and rank possible risk reduction measures taking into account a broad set of criteria and perspectives applicable to the management of WNV in Quebec under increasing transmission risk scenarios, some of which may be related to ongoing warming in higher-latitude regions. A participatory approach was used to collect information on categories of concern to relevant stakeholders with respect to WNV prevention and control. Multi-criteria decision analysis was applied to examine stakeholder perspectives and their effect on strategy rankings under increasing transmission risk scenarios. Twenty-three preventive interventions were retained for evaluation using eighteen criteria identified by stakeholders. Combined evaluations revealed that, at an individual-level, inspecting window screen integrity, wearing light colored, long clothing, eliminating peridomestic larval sites and reducing outdoor activities at peak times were top interventions under six WNV transmission scenarios. At a regional-level, the use of larvicides was a preferred strategy in five out of six scenarios, while use of adulticides and dissemination of sterile male mosquitoes were found to be among the least favoured interventions in almost all scenarios. Our findings suggest that continued public health efforts aimed at reinforcing individual

  7. Health, social and economic impact of some tritium watches in Italy. Regulations, derogations and proposed scenarios for dose assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Italian Radiation Protection regulations issued in 1995, valid since the beginning of 1996, ban the trading, production, import, use, handling and anyway keeping of 'products for personal use containing deliberately added radioactive materials'. Tritium watches belong to such a category of consumer products. A derogation to this ban may be asked to the Italian authorities provided that a Qualified Expert performs a dose assessment for all the possible scenarios involving users, non-users, workers and general population for the use, distribution, repair and disposal of tritium watches in normal and accident a conditions. We have carried out this assessment for watches imported by some large Italian comparies and the general results are here reported. In this context we have also compared the Italian legislation with the present one of other European countries, just few months before the deadline for the compulsory implementation by the EU member states of the 1996 Euratom Directive, laying down Basic Safety Standards for the protection of the health of workers and the general public against the dangers arising from ionising radiation. We have also traced the evolution of the Italian legislation in the matter of radioluminescent watches in the last thirty years. The dose assessments have been carried out considering scenarios both reported in international literature and suitably set out by the authors. It can be pointed out that, considering credible hypotheses, the maximum committed dose to the user of a tritium watch, in normal conditions of use, is less than 10 micro Sv/y and that in many cases neither in the worst and unlikely scenarios such a value is exceeded; the other categories of potentially exposed people (non-users, repairmen, distributors) are affected by much lower 'doses'. In all cases the individual doses are well below the annual limit set out by the Italian legislation for practices involving radioactive man-made material. Nevertheless, these

  8. The development of climatic scenarios for assessing impacts of climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carter, T.; Tuomenvirta, H. [Finnish Meteorological Inst., Helsinki (Finland); Posch, M. [National Inst. of Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven (Netherlands)

    1995-12-31

    There is a growing recognition that mitigation measures for limiting future global changes in climate due to the enhanced greenhouse effect are unlikely to prevent some changes from occurring. Thus, if climate changes appear to be unavoidable, there is an increased need to evaluate their likely impacts on natural systems and human activities. Most impacts of climate change need to be examined at a regional scale, and their assessment requires up-to-date information on future regional climate changes. Unfortunately, accurate predictions of regional climate are not yet available. Instead, it is customary to construct climatic scenarios, which are plausible representations of future climate based on the best available information. This presentation outlines seven principles of climatic scenario development for impact studies, briefly describing some of the strengths and weaknesses of available methods and then illustrating one approach adopted in Finland

  9. The reference energy scenario of the DGEMP for 2030,there's many a slip twixt the cup and the lip; Le scenario energetique de reference de la DGEMP pour 2030, ou il y a loin de la coupe aux levres

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Acket, C.; Nifenecker, H

    2008-05-15

    The authors discuss the energy reference scenario for 2030, proposed by the DGEMP. This scenario is published every 4 years. It represents the french energy situation in 2030, if no new energy policy was decided, in particularly no new measure from the Grenelle of the environment. The scenario supposes also no energy crisis in the fossil fuels supply and the fuels prices. In this topic, the objective of a contribution of 20% of renewable energies in the final energy consumption, seems possible. (A.L.B.)

  10. Earthquake Scenario for the City of Gyumri Including Seismic Hazard and Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Babayan, H.; Karakhanyan, A.; Arakelyan, A.; Avanesyan, M.; Durgaryan, R.; Babayan, S.; Gevorgyan, M.; Hovhannisyan, G.

    2012-12-01

    The city of Gyumri situated in the north of Armenia falls in the zone of active Akhouryan Fault and during the 20th century it suffered from catastrophic earthquakes twice. The Mw=6.2 earthquake in 1926 and the Spitak earthquake with a magnitude of 6.9 in 1988 killed more than 20,000 people in total. Therefore, current seismic hazard and risk assessment for the city are of great importance. It is also very important to answer how properly the lessons of the Spitak earthquake have been learned for this largest city in the Spitak earthquake disaster zone, what the real level of seismic risk is now, and what losses the city could expect if a similar or stronger earthquake occurred nowadays. For this purposes, the most probable earthquakes scenarios have been developed by means of comprehensive assessment of seismic hazard and risk, The conducted study helped to produce the actual pattern of effects caused by the Spitak earthquake in terms of losses and damage caused to diverse types of buildings and thus enabled correct selection of required parameter values to estimate vulnerability of the structures and test the ELER software package (designated for estimation of losses and damages developed in the framework of GEM-EMME Project). The work was realized by the following sequence of steps: probabilistic and deterministic assessment of seismic hazard for the Gyumri city region - choice of earthquake scenario (based on the disaggregation and seismotectonic model) - risk estimation for each selected earthquake scenario. In the framework of this study, different parameters of seismic hazard such as peak ground acceleration and spectral acceleration were investigated and mapped, and soil model for city was developed. Subsequently, these maps were used as the basic inputs to assess the expected life, building, and lifeline losses. The presented work was realized with the financial support of UNDP. The results of the Project will serve the basis for national and local

  11. Socio-economic scenarios for climate change impact assessment : a guide to their use in the UK Climate Impacts Programme

    OpenAIRE

    2001-01-01

    Enormous challenges are faced in devising socio-economic scenarios for the assessment of future impacts and there is very little experience to draw upon. Socio-economic scenarios have not been widely used within impacts studies, but this report will serve to encourage their use more widely within the UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP). The aim has been to develop a scenarios framework through which stakeholders are able to reflect upon possible alternative futures and to make...

  12. Using scenarios to assess the future supply of NHS nursing staff in England

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Buchan James

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract This paper examines issues related to the future supply of registered nursing staff, midwives and health visitors in the National Health Service (NHS in England at a time when there are major public sector funding constraints and as more of these staff are reaching retirement age. Based on available workforce data, the paper reviews different possible scenarios for the supply of NHS nurses over a ten year period, assessing the impact of different numbers of new staff being trained and of varying retirement patterns from the ageing profession. The government in England has more policy levers available than is the case in many other countries. It determines the number of pre-registration training places that are commissioned and funded, it is the major employer, and it also controls the inflow of nurses from other countries through migration policies. Scenario models provide a picture of what the future might look like under various assumptions. These outcomes can be quantified and the results used to assess the risks and opportunities of alternate policy decisions. The approach used in this paper is that of the aggregate deterministic supply model. As part of this exercise, eight scenarios were selected and modelled. These were: A. “No change”- current inflows and outflows B. “Redundancies” - current inflow with higher outflow C. “Improved retention” - current inflow with lower outflow D. “Reduced training intakes A” - lower inflows with lower outflow E. “Reduced training intakes B” - lower inflow with higher outflows F. “Pension time-bomb”- current inflow with a higher rate of retirement G. “Pension delayed”- current inflow with a lower rate of retirement H. “Worst case” - lower inflow and higher outflow including higher retirement Most of the scenarios indicate that a reduction in the supply of nursing staff to NHS England is possible over the next ten years. Small changes in assumptions can make a

  13. Self-assessment in cancer patients referred to palliative care

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Strömgren, Annette S; Goldschmidt, Dorthe; Groenvold, Mogens;

    2002-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Research in palliative care is considered difficult due to the poor health of patients. However, patient-provided data are essential for a thorough description of patient symptomatology and for the evaluation of care. METHODS: The authors examined the feasibility of a questionnaire......-based study using the European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer quality-of-life instrument EORTC QLQ-C30, the Edmonton Symptom Assessment System (ESAS), and the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS) in cancer patients who were receiving palliative care. This report describes...... the symptomatology of participating patients and examines differences in symptomatology between patients in three palliative care functions: inpatient, outpatient, and palliative home care. RESULTS: Of 267 eligible patients who were referred to a department of palliative medicine, initial self...

  14. Reference material systems: a sourcebook for material assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bhagat, N. (ed.)

    1976-12-01

    A reference set of data related to material systems and a framework for carrying out the material technologies assessment are presented. While the bulk of renewables have been considered in this report, the nonrenewable materials dealt with here include structural materials only, such as steel, aluminum, cement and concrete, and bricks. The complete data set is supposed to include material flows, energy requirements, capital and labor inputs, and environmental effects for each process that a resource must go through to become a useful material for an end use. Although effort has been made to obtain as much information as possible, considerable gaps in data, apparent throughout this report, could not be avoided. A new material technology can be evaluated by substituting that technology for appropriate elements of the reference materials system and calculating the net change in material resource, energy, capital and labor requirements, and environmental impacts. This combination of information thus serves as a means of evaluating the potential benefits to be gained by research in various material technologies.

  15. AN ASSESSMENT OF CITIZEN CONTRIBUTED GROUND REFERENCE DATA FOR LAND COVER MAP ACCURACY ASSESSMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. M. Foody

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available It is now widely accepted that an accuracy assessment should be part of a thematic mapping programme. Authoritative good or best practices for accuracy assessment have been defined but are often impractical to implement. Key reasons for this situation are linked to the ground reference data used in the accuracy assessment. Typically, it is a challenge to acquire a large sample of high quality reference cases in accordance to desired sampling designs specified as conforming to good practice and the data collected are normally to some degree imperfect limiting their value to an accuracy assessment which implicitly assumes the use of a gold standard reference. Citizen sensors have great potential to aid aspects of accuracy assessment. In particular, they may be able to act as a source of ground reference data that may, for example, reduce sample size problems but concerns with data quality remain. The relative strengths and limitations of citizen contributed data for accuracy assessment are reviewed in the context of the authoritative good practices defined for studies of land cover by remote sensing. The article will highlight some of the ways that citizen contributed data have been used in accuracy assessment as well as some of the problems that require further attention, and indicate some of the potential ways forward in the future.

  16. A proposal for a new scenario framework to support research and assessment in different climate research communities

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vuuren, D.P. van; Riahi, K.; Moss, R.; Edmonds, J.; Thomson, A.; Nakicenovic, N.; Kram, T.; Berkhout, F.; Swart, R.; Janetos, A.; Rose, S.K.; Arnell, N.

    2012-01-01

    In this paper, we propose a scenario framework that could provide a scenario " thread" through the different climate research communities (climate change - vulnerability, impact, and adaptation - and mitigation) in order to support assessment of mitigation and adaptation strategies and climate impac

  17. A proposal for a new scenario framework to support research and assessment in different climate research communities

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vuuren, van D.P.; Riahi, K.; Moss, R.; Edmonds, J.; Thomson, A.; Nakicenovic, N.; Kram, T.; Berkhout, F.; Swart, R.J.; Janetos, A.; Rose, S.K.; Arnell, N.

    2012-01-01

    In this paper, we propose a scenario framework that could provide a scenario "thread" through the different climate research communities (climate change - vulnerability, impact, and adaptation - and mitigation) in order to support assessment of mitigation and adaptation strategies and climate impact

  18. Life cycle assessment and residue leaching: The importance of parameter, scenario and leaching data selection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Highlights: • Relevance of metal leaching in waste management system LCAs was assessed. • Toxic impacts from leaching could not be disregarded. • Uncertainty of toxicity, due to background activities, determines LCA outcomes. • Parameters such as pH and L/S affect LCA results. • Data modelling consistency and coverage within an LCA are crucial. - Abstract: Residues from industrial processes and waste management systems (WMSs) have been increasingly reutilised, leading to landfilling rate reductions and the optimisation of mineral resource utilisation in society. Life cycle assessment (LCA) is a holistic methodology allowing for the analysis of systems and products and can be applied to waste management systems to identify environmental benefits and critical aspects thereof. From an LCA perspective, residue utilisation provides benefits such as avoiding the production and depletion of primary materials, but it can lead to environmental burdens, due to the potential leaching of toxic substances. In waste LCA studies where residue utilisation is included, leaching has generally been neglected. In this study, municipal solid waste incineration bottom ash (MSWI BA) was used as a case study into three LCA scenarios having different system boundaries. The importance of data quality and parameter selection in the overall LCA results was evaluated, and an innovative method to assess metal transport into the environment was applied, in order to determine emissions to the soil and water compartments for use in an LCA. It was found that toxic impacts as a result of leaching were dominant in systems including only MSWI BA utilisation, while leaching appeared negligible in larger scenarios including the entire waste system. However, leaching could not be disregarded a priori, due to large uncertainties characterising other activities in the scenario (e.g. electricity production). Based on the analysis of relevant parameters relative to leaching, and on general results

  19. Life cycle assessment and residue leaching: The importance of parameter, scenario and leaching data selection

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Allegrini, E., E-mail: elia@env.dtu.dk [Technical University of Denmark, Department of Environmental Engineering, Building 115, 2800 Lyngby (Denmark); Butera, S. [Technical University of Denmark, Department of Environmental Engineering, Building 115, 2800 Lyngby (Denmark); Kosson, D.S. [Vanderbilt University, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Box 1831 Station B, Nashville, TN 37235 (United States); Van Zomeren, A. [Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands (ECN), Department of Environmental Risk Assessment, P.O. Box 1, 1755 ZG Petten (Netherlands); Van der Sloot, H.A. [Hans van der Sloot Consultancy, Dorpsstraat 216, 1721 BV Langedijk (Netherlands); Astrup, T.F. [Technical University of Denmark, Department of Environmental Engineering, Building 115, 2800 Lyngby (Denmark)

    2015-04-15

    Highlights: • Relevance of metal leaching in waste management system LCAs was assessed. • Toxic impacts from leaching could not be disregarded. • Uncertainty of toxicity, due to background activities, determines LCA outcomes. • Parameters such as pH and L/S affect LCA results. • Data modelling consistency and coverage within an LCA are crucial. - Abstract: Residues from industrial processes and waste management systems (WMSs) have been increasingly reutilised, leading to landfilling rate reductions and the optimisation of mineral resource utilisation in society. Life cycle assessment (LCA) is a holistic methodology allowing for the analysis of systems and products and can be applied to waste management systems to identify environmental benefits and critical aspects thereof. From an LCA perspective, residue utilisation provides benefits such as avoiding the production and depletion of primary materials, but it can lead to environmental burdens, due to the potential leaching of toxic substances. In waste LCA studies where residue utilisation is included, leaching has generally been neglected. In this study, municipal solid waste incineration bottom ash (MSWI BA) was used as a case study into three LCA scenarios having different system boundaries. The importance of data quality and parameter selection in the overall LCA results was evaluated, and an innovative method to assess metal transport into the environment was applied, in order to determine emissions to the soil and water compartments for use in an LCA. It was found that toxic impacts as a result of leaching were dominant in systems including only MSWI BA utilisation, while leaching appeared negligible in larger scenarios including the entire waste system. However, leaching could not be disregarded a priori, due to large uncertainties characterising other activities in the scenario (e.g. electricity production). Based on the analysis of relevant parameters relative to leaching, and on general results

  20. Modelling regional land change scenarios to assess land abandonment and reforestation dynamics in the Pyrenees (France)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vacquie, Laure; Houet, Thomas; Sohl, Terry L.; Reker, Ryan; Sayler, Kristi L.

    2015-01-01

    Over the last decades and centuries, European mountain landscapes have experienced substantial transformations. Natural and anthropogenic LULC changes (land use and land cover changes), especially agro-pastoral activities, have directly influenced the spatial organization and composition of European mountain landscapes. For the past sixty years, natural reforestation has been occurring due to a decline in both agricultural production activities and rural population. Stakeholders, to better anticipate future changes, need spatially and temporally explicit models to identify areas at risk of land change and possible abandonment. This paper presents an integrated approach combining forecasting scenarios and a LULC changes simulation model to assess where LULC changes may occur in the Pyrenees Mountains, based on historical LULC trends and a range of future socio-economic drivers. The proposed methodology considers local specificities of the Pyrenean valleys, sub-regional climate and topographical properties, and regional economic policies. Results indicate that some regions are projected to face strong abandonment, regardless of the scenario conditions. Overall, high rates of change are associated with administrative regions where land productivity is highly dependent on socio-economic drivers and climatic and environmental conditions limit intensive (agricultural and/or pastoral) production and profitability. The combination of the results for the four scenarios allows assessments of where encroachment (e.g. colonization by shrublands) and reforestation are the most probable. This assessment intends to provide insight into the potential future development of the Pyrenees to help identify areas that are the most sensitive to change and to guide decision makers to help their management decisions.

  1. Scenario-neutral Food Security Risk Assessment: A livestock Heat Stress Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Broman, D.; Rajagopalan, B.; Hopson, T. M.

    2015-12-01

    Food security risk assessments can provide decision-makers with actionable information to identify critical system limitations, and alternatives to mitigate the impacts of future conditions. The majority of current risk assessments have been scenario-led and results are limited by the scenarios - selected future states of the world's climate system and socioeconomic factors. A generic scenario-neutral framework for food security risk assessments is presented here that uses plausible states of the world without initially assigning likelihoods. Measures of system vulnerabilities are identified and system risk is assessed for these states. This framework has benefited greatly by research in the water and natural resource fields to adapt their planning to provide better risk assessments. To illustrate the utility of this framework we develop a case study using livestock heat stress risk within the pastoral system of West Africa. Heat stress can have a major impact not only on livestock owners, but on the greater food production system, decreasing livestock growth, milk production, and reproduction, and in severe cases, death. A heat stress index calculated from daily weather is used as a vulnerability measure and is computed from historic daily weather data at several locations in the study region. To generate plausible states, a stochastic weather generator is developed to generate synthetic weather sequences at each location, consistent with the seasonal climate. A spatial model of monthly and seasonal heat stress provide projections of current and future livestock heat stress measures across the study region, and can incorporate in seasonal climate and other external covariates. These models, when linked with empirical thresholds of heat stress risk for specific breeds offer decision-makers with actionable information for use in near-term warning systems as well as for future planning. Future assessment can indicate under which states livestock are at greatest risk

  2. Frequency assessment of spatially distributed generations of flood scenarios: an application on Italian territory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lomazzi, M.; Roth, G.; Rudari, R.; Taramasso, A. C.; Ghizzoni, T.; Benedetti, R.; Espa, G.; Terpessi, C.

    2009-12-01

    The flooding risk impact on society cannot be understated: it influences land use and territorial planning and development at both physical and regulatory levels. To cope with it, a variety of actions can be put in place, involving multidisciplinary competences. Mitigation measures goes from the improvement of monitoring systems to the development of hydraulic structures, throughout land use restrictions, civil protection and insurance plans. All of those options present social and economic impacts, either positive or negative, whose proper estimate should rely on the assumption of appropriate - present and future - scenarios, i.e. quantitative event descriptions in terms of i) the flood hazard, with its probability of occurrence, extension, intensity, and duration, ii) the exposed values and iii) their vulnerability. At present, initial attention has been devoted to the design of flood scenarios, or ensembles of them, and to the evaluation of their frequency of occurrence. In the present work, a model for spatially distributed flood scenarios generation and frequency assessment is proposed and applied to the Italian territory. The study area has been divided into homogeneous regions according to their hydrologic, orographic and meteoclimatic characteristics. A statistical model for flood scenarios simulation has been implemented throughout a conditional approach based on MCMC simulations by using i) a historical flood events catalogue; ii) a homogeneous regions correlation matrix; and iii) an auxiliary variables data set. In this framework, the role of the information stored in the historical flood events catalogue "Aree Vulnerate Italiane" (AVI, http://avi.gndci.cnr.it/), produced by the Italian National Research Council, is of crucial importance.

  3. New Approaches to Transport Project Assessment: Reference Scenario Forecasting and Quantitative Risk Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang

    2010-01-01

    This presentation sets out a new methodology for examining the uncertainties relating to transport decision making based on infrastructure appraisals. Traditional transport infrastructure projects are based upon cost-benefit analyses in order to appraise the projects feasibility. Recent research....... Additionally, the handling of uncertainties is supplemented by making use of the principle of Optimism Bias, which depicts the historical tendency of overestimating transport related benefits (user demands i.e. travel time savings) and underestimating investment costs....

  4. AN ENVIRON-ECONOMICAL MATHEMATICAL MODELING OF WATER POLLUTION IMPACT ASSESSMENT IN REFERENCE TO INDIAN SCENARIO

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hemant PATHAK

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the application of the mathematical modeling to such a specific area as environ-economical interaction in prospect of big countries like India. A model of mutual interaction of dirty drinking water resulting water borne diseases, badly affected economy is proposed. For the description of some of these models illustrates drinking water resources, incapable municipal water treatment consequently expansion of diseases, World Bank loan, affected biggest labour forces (mankind and ultimate results in the form of decrease in GDP. These mathematical models may be used in the solving of similar type problems exist in south and eastern Asian economies.

  5. No-reference image quality assessment in the spatial domain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mittal, Anish; Moorthy, Anush Krishna; Bovik, Alan Conrad

    2012-12-01

    We propose a natural scene statistic-based distortion-generic blind/no-reference (NR) image quality assessment (IQA) model that operates in the spatial domain. The new model, dubbed blind/referenceless image spatial quality evaluator (BRISQUE) does not compute distortion-specific features, such as ringing, blur, or blocking, but instead uses scene statistics of locally normalized luminance coefficients to quantify possible losses of "naturalness" in the image due to the presence of distortions, thereby leading to a holistic measure of quality. The underlying features used derive from the empirical distribution of locally normalized luminances and products of locally normalized luminances under a spatial natural scene statistic model. No transformation to another coordinate frame (DCT, wavelet, etc.) is required, distinguishing it from prior NR IQA approaches. Despite its simplicity, we are able to show that BRISQUE is statistically better than the full-reference peak signal-to-noise ratio and the structural similarity index, and is highly competitive with respect to all present-day distortion-generic NR IQA algorithms. BRISQUE has very low computational complexity, making it well suited for real time applications. BRISQUE features may be used for distortion-identification as well. To illustrate a new practical application of BRISQUE, we describe how a nonblind image denoising algorithm can be augmented with BRISQUE in order to perform blind image denoising. Results show that BRISQUE augmentation leads to performance improvements over state-of-the-art methods. A software release of BRISQUE is available online: http://live.ece.utexas.edu/research/quality/BRISQUE_release.zip for public use and evaluation. PMID:22910118

  6. Conceptualizing sustainable development. An assessment methodology connecting values, knowledge, worldviews and scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sustainability science poses severe challenges to classical disciplinary science. To bring the perspectives of diverse disciplines together in a meaningful way, we describe a novel methodology for sustainability assessment of a particular social-ecological system, or country. Starting point is that a sustainability assessment should investigate the ability to continue and develop a desirable way of living vis-a-vis later generations and life elsewhere on the planet. Evidently, people hold different values and beliefs about the way societies sustain quality of life for their members. The first step, therefore, is to analyze people's value orientations and the way in which they interpret sustainability problems i.e. their beliefs. The next step is to translate the resulting worldviews into model-based narratives, i.e. scenarios. The qualitative and quantitative outcomes are then investigated in terms of associated risks and opportunities and robustness of policy options. The Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL) has followed this methodology, using extensive surveys among the Dutch population. In its First Sustainability Outlook (2004), the resulting archetypical worldviews became the basis for four different scenarios for policy analysis, with emphases on the domains of transport, energy and food. The goal of the agency's Sustainability Outlooks is to show that choices are inevitable in policy making for sustainable development, to indicate which positive and negative impacts one can expect of these choices (trade-offs), and to identify options that may be robust under several worldviews. The conceptualization proposed here is both clear and applicable in practical sustainability assessments for policy making. (author)

  7. Generation of Referring Expressions: Assessing the Incremental Algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Deemter, Kees; Gatt, Albert; van der Sluis, Ielka; Power, Richard

    2012-01-01

    A substantial amount of recent work in natural language generation has focused on the generation of "one-shot" referring expressions whose only aim is to identify a target referent. Dale and Reiter's Incremental Algorithm (IA) is often thought to be the best algorithm for maximizing the similarity to referring expressions produced by people. We…

  8. Particle Reduction Strategies - PAREST. Emissions in PAREST reference scenario 2005-2020; Strategien zur Verminderung der Feinstaubbelastung - PAREST. Emissionen im PAREST-Referenzszenario 2005-2020

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Joerss, Wolfram [Institut fuer Zukunftsstudien und Technologiebewertung gGmbH (IZT), Berlin (Germany); Kugler, Ulrike; Theloke, Jochen [Stuttgart Univ. (Germany). Inst. fuer Energiewirtschaft und Rationelle Energieanwendung (IER)

    2013-06-15

    In the research project PAREST emission scenarios to 2020 for particulate matter (PM{sub 10} und PM{sub 2,5}), and aerosol precursors SO{sub 2}, NO{sub x}, NH{sub 3} and NMVOC were prepared for Germany and Europe, mitigation measures evaluated and the results used to model the PM pollution load for Germany. In this sub-report of PAREST Germany's aggregate emissions totals of the considered pollutants are presented in the reference scenario. [German] Im Forschungsvorhaben PAREST wurden Emissionsszenarien bis 2020 fuer Feinstaub (PM{sub 10} und PM{sub 2,5}) und die Aerosol-Vorlaeufersubstanzen SO{sub 2}, NO{sub x}, NH{sub 3} und NMVOC fuer Deutschland und Europa erstellt, Minderungsmassnahmen evaluiert und daraus die PM-Immissionsbelastung fuer Deutschland modelliert. In diesem Teilbericht zu PAREST werden die deutschlandweit aggregierten Emissionssummen der betrachteten Schadstoffe im Referenzszenario vorgestellt.

  9. Diagnostic health risk assessment of electronic waste on the general population in developing countries' scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    E-waste is the generic name for technological waste. Even though aspects related to e-waste environmental pollution and human exposure are known, scientific assessments are missing so far on the actual risks for health sustainability of the general population exposed to e-waste scenarios, such as illicit dumping, crude recycling and improper treatment and disposal. In fact, further to occupational and direct local exposure, e-waste scenarios may impact on the environment-to-food chain, thus eliciting a widespread and repeated exposure of the general population to mixtures of toxicants, mainly toxic chemical elements, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and persistent organic pollutants. In the absence of any clear policy on e-waste flow management, the situation in the e-waste receiver countries may become quite scary; accordingly, here we address a diagnostic risk assessment of health issues potentially elicited by e-waste related mixtures of toxicants. Scientific evidence available so far (mainly from China) is discussed with special attention to the concept of health sustainability, i.e. the poor health burden heritage perpetuated through the mother-to-child dyad. Endocrine disruption and neurotoxicity are specifically considered as examples of main health burden issues relevant to perpetuation through life cycle and across generations; toxicological information are considered along with available data on environmental and food contamination and human internal exposure. The risk from exposure to e-waste related mixtures of toxicants of vulnerable subpopulation like breast-fed infants is given special attention. The diagnostic risk assessment demonstrates how e-waste exposure poses an actual public health emergency, as it may entrain significant health risks also for generations to come. Exposure scenarios as well as specific chemicals of major concern may vary in different contexts; for instance, only limited information is available on e-waste related exposures in

  10. Environmental assessment: Reference repository location, Hanford site, Washington

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    none,

    1986-05-01

    In February 1983, the US Department of Energy (DOE) identified a reference repository location at the Hanford Site in Washington as one of the nine potentially acceptable sites for a mined geologic repository for spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste. The site is in the Columbia Plateau, which is one of five distinct geohydrologic settings considered for the first repository. To determine their suitability, the Hanford site and the eight other potentially acceptable sites have been evaluated in accordance with the DOE's General Guidelines for the Recommendation of Sites for the Nuclear Waste Repositories. These evaluations were reported in draft environmental assessments (EAs), which were issued for public review and comment. After considering the comments received on the draft EAs, the DOE prepared the final EAs. On the basis of the evaluations reported in this EA, the DOE has found that the Hanford site is not disqualified under the guidelines. The DOE has also found that is is suitable for site characterization because the evidence does not support a conclusion that the site will not be able to meet each of the qualifying conditions specified in the guidelines. On the basis of these findings, the DOE is nominating the Hanford site as one of five sites available for characterization.

  11. Environmental assessment: Reference repository location, Hanford site, Washington

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    none,

    1986-05-01

    In February 1983, the US Department of Energy (DOE) identified a reference repository location at the Hanford Site in Washington as one of the nine potentially acceptable sites for a mined geologic repository for spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste. The site is in the Columbia Plateau, which is one of five distinct geohydrologic settings considered for the first repository. To determine their suitability, the Hanford Site and the eight other potentially acceptable sites have been evaluated in accordance with the DOE's General Guidelines for the Recommendation of Sites for the Nuclear Waste Repositories. These evaluations were reported in draft environmental assessments (EAs), which were issued for public review and comment. After considering the comments received on the draft EAs, the DOE prepared the final EAs. On the basis of the evaluations reported in this EA, the DOE has found that the Hanford site is not disqualified under the guidelines. The DOE has also found that it is suitable for site characterization because the evidence does not support a conclusion that the site will not be able to meet each of the qualifying conditions specified in the guidelines. On the basis of these findings, the DOE is nominating the Hanford site as one of five sites suitable for characterization.

  12. Scenario exploration approach for performance assessment of geological disposal system (III)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In order to underpin and defend the definition of calculation cases and simplified PA models, we discuss a complementary approach which reverses the standard procedure of scenario development and case definition described above. We design a set of extremely flexible mathematical tools called Shadow Models' for the particular purpose of 'scanning' the whole parameter/model space which has not yet been rejected by the experts rather than scrutinizing it. The SSTM was used extensively to generate an ensemble of stochastic realizations of the possible nuclide transport behaviour within the EBS. The principal component analysis on the ensemble and the analysis of the contribution of input parameter variations to the output variations reconstructed the existing knowledge concerning the sensitivity structure for the reference cases in a more formal and quantitative way. In addition, an analysis on the subset of realizations corresponding to high peak release rate revealed a critical combination and sequence of events that could potentially lead to a significantly higher release rate than that of the reference cases. In the current financial year, the objective of the study is: (1) To extend the methodology further and develop a shadow model for nuclide transport through near-field host rock which is represented as a time-dependent channel network with dual porosity; (2) To apply the near-field shadow transport model in the stochastic mode and explore the sensitivity structure; (3) To run the near-field shadow transport model in the deterministic mode to investigate effects of some physical events. (author)

  13. Energy security under de-carbonization scenarios: An assessment framework and evaluation under different technology and policy choices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    How would a low-carbon energy transformation affect energy security? This paper proposes a framework to evaluate energy security under long-term energy scenarios generated by integrated assessment models. Energy security is defined as low vulnerability of vital energy systems, delineated along geographic and sectoral boundaries. The proposed framework considers vulnerability as a combination of risks associated with inter-regional energy trade and resilience reflected in energy intensity and diversity of energy sources and technologies. We apply this framework to 43 scenarios generated by the MESSAGE model as part of the Global Energy Assessment, including one baseline scenario and 42 ‘low-carbon’ scenarios where the global mean temperature increase is limited to 2°C over the pre-industrial level. By and large, low-carbon scenarios are associated with lower energy trade and higher diversity of energy options, especially in the transport sector. A few risks do emerge under low-carbon scenarios in the latter half of the century. They include potentially high trade in natural gas and hydrogen and low diversity of electricity sources. Trade is typically lower in scenarios which emphasize demand-side policies as well as non-tradable energy sources (nuclear and renewables) while diversity is higher in scenarios which limit the penetration of intermittent renewables. - Highlights: • We explore energy security implications of long-term energy decarbonization scenarios. • We define energy security as low vulnerability of vital energy systems. • The trade-related risks are considerably lower in decarbonization scenarios. • Diversity of energy systems is generally higher in the first half of the century. • Vulnerability is lowest in scenarios with both high efficiency and renewable energy constraints

  14. From Seismic Scenarios to Earthquake Risk Assessment: A Case Study for Iquique, Chile.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aguirre, P.; Fortuno, C.; Martin, J. C. D. L. L.; Vasquez, J.

    2015-12-01

    Iquique is a strategic city and economic center in northern Chile, and is located in a large seismic gap where a megathrust earthquake and tsunami is expected. Although it was hit by a Mw 8.2 earthquake on April 1st 2014, which caused moderate damage, geophysical evidence still suggests that there is potential for a larger event, so a thorough risk assessment is key to understand the physical, social, and economic effects of such potential event, and devise appropriate mitigation plans. Hence, Iquique has been selected as a prime study case for the implementation of a risk assessment platform in Chile. Our study integrates research on three main elements of risk calculations: hazard evaluation, exposure model, and physical vulnerabilities. To characterize the hazard field, a set of synthetic seismic scenarios have been developed based on plate interlocking and the residual slip potential that results from subtracting the slip occurred during the April 1st 2014 rupture fault mechanism, obtained using InSAR+GPS inversion. Additional scenarios were developed based of the fault rupture model of the Maule 2010 Mw 8.8 earthquake and on the local plate locking models in northern Chile. These rupture models define a collection of possible realizations of earthquake geometries parameterized in terms of critical variables like slip magnitude, rise time, mean propagation velocity, directivity, and other, which are propagated to obtain a hazard map for Iquique (e.g. PGA, PGV, PDG). Furthermore, a large body of public and local data was used to construct a detailed exposure model for Iquique, including aggregated building count, demographics, essential facilities, and lifelines. This model together with the PGA maps for the April 1st 2014 earthquake are used to calibrate HAZUS outputs against observed damage, and adjust the fragility curves of physical systems according to more detailed analyses of typical Chilean building types and their structural properties, plus historical

  15. Knowledge Brokerage for Impact Assessment of Land Use Scenarios in Inner Mongolia, China: Extending and Testing the FoPIA Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hannes J. König

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available While land serves numerous societal functions and contributes to sustainable development, it is often unclear how these functions are affected by political decisions and common drivers of land use change, such as economic development, climate change and demographic change. This study evaluates alternative land use scenarios in reference to a rural region of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region (China, where various processes and decisions have historically triggered unsustainable development. The scientifically tested “Framework for Participatory Impact Assessment (FoPIA” method is developed further to address specific features of the case study region, and its function as a knowledge-brokerage (KB tool is evaluated. Three scenarios are developed and analysed in expert workshops. “Land intensification: Agriculture” and “Land intensification: Mining” scenarios are found to have mainly negative environmental and social effects and positive economic impacts, while the “Environmental conservation and tourism” scenario is found to more positively affect all three sustainability dimensions. Assessments of methodological phases show that the FoPIA primarily serves to establish the KB process and that the framework particularly benefits from early examinations of scientific results by policy makers.

  16. Climate change impact and adaptation assessment on food consumption utilizing a new scenario framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hasegawa, Tomoko; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Shin, Yonghee; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Masui, Toshihiko; Tanaka, Akemi

    2014-01-01

    We assessed the impacts of climate change and agricultural autonomous adaptation measures (changes in crop variety and planting dates) on food consumption and risk of hunger considering uncertainties in socioeconomic and climate conditions by using a new scenario framework. We combined a global computable general equilibrium model and a crop model (M-GAEZ), and estimated the impacts through 2050 based on future assumptions of socioeconomic and climate conditions. We used three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways as future population and gross domestic products, four Representative Concentration Pathways as a greenhouse gas emissions constraint, and eight General Circulation Models to estimate climate conditions. We found that (i) the adaptation measures are expected to significantly lower the risk of hunger resulting from climate change under various socioeconomic and climate conditions. (ii) population and economic development had a greater impact than climate conditions for risk of hunger at least throughout 2050, but climate change was projected to have notable impacts, even in the strong emission mitigation scenarios. (iii) The impact on hunger risk varied across regions because levels of calorie intake, climate change impacts and land scarcity varied by region.

  17. Development of sea level rise scenarios for climate change assessments of the Mekong Delta, Vietnam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doyle, Thomas W.; Day, Richard H.; Michot, Thomas C.

    2010-01-01

    Rising sea level poses critical ecological and economical consequences for the low-lying megadeltas of the world where dependent populations and agriculture are at risk. The Mekong Delta of Vietnam is one of many deltas that are especially vulnerable because much of the land surface is below mean sea level and because there is a lack of coastal barrier protection. Food security related to rice and shrimp farming in the Mekong Delta is currently under threat from saltwater intrusion, relative sea level rise, and storm surge potential. Understanding the degree of potential change in sea level under climate change is needed to undertake regional assessments of potential impacts and to formulate adaptation strategies. This report provides constructed time series of potential sea level rise scenarios for the Mekong Delta region by incorporating (1) aspects of observed intra- and inter-annual sea level variability from tide records and (2) projected estimates for different rates of regional subsidence and accelerated eustacy through the year 2100 corresponding with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate models and emission scenarios.

  18. Dynamic EROI Assessment of the IPCC 21st Century Electricity Production Scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charles Neumeyer

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The Energy Return on Investment (EROI is an important measure of the energy gain of an electrical power generating facility that is typically evaluated based on the life cycle energy balance of a single facility. The EROI concept can be extended to cover a collection of facilities that comprise a complete power system and used to assess the expansion and evolution of a power system as it transitions from one portfolio mix of technologies to another over time. In this study we develop a dynamic EROI model that simulates the evolution of a power system and we perform an EROI simulation of one of the electricity production scenarios developed under the auspices of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC covering the global supply of electricity in the 21st century. Our analytic tool provides the means for evaluation of dynamic EROI based on arbitrary time-dependent demand scenarios by modeling the required expansion of power generation, including the plowback needed for new construction and to replace facilities as they are retired. The results provide insight into the level of installed and delivered power, above and beyond basic consumer demand, that is required to support construction during expansion, as well as the supplementary power that may be required if plowback constraints are imposed. In addition, sensitivity to EROI parameters, and the impact of energy storage efficiency are addressed.

  19. Using Optimal Land-Use Scenarios to Assess Trade-Offs between Conservation, Development, and Social Values

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pressey, Robert L.; Álvarez-Romero, Jorge G.

    2016-01-01

    Development of land resources can contribute to increased economic productivity but can also negatively affect the extent and condition of native vegetation, jeopardize the persistence of native species, reduce water quality, and erode ecosystem services. Spatial planning must therefore balance outcomes for conservation, development, and social goals. One approach to evaluating these trade-offs is scenario planning. In this paper we demonstrate methods for incorporating stakeholder preferences into scenario planning through both defining scenario objectives and evaluating the scenarios that emerge. In this way, we aim to develop spatial plans capable of informing actual land-use decisions. We used a novel approach to scenario planning that couples optimal land-use design and social evaluation of environmental outcomes. Four land-use scenarios combined differences in total clearing levels (10% and 20%) in our study region, the Daly Catchment Australia, with the presence or absence of spatial precincts to concentrate irrigated agriculture. We used the systematic conservation planning tool Marxan with Zones to optimally plan for multiple land-uses that met objectives for both conservation and development. We assessed the performance of the scenarios in terms of the number of objectives met and the degree to which existing land-use policies were compromised (e.g., whether clearing limits in existing guidelines were exceeded or not). We also assessed the land-use scenarios using expected stakeholder satisfaction with changes in the catchment to explore how the scenarios performed against social preferences. There were a small fraction of conservation objectives with high conservation targets (100%) that could not be met due to current land uses; all other conservation and development objectives were met in all scenarios. Most scenarios adhered to the existing clearing guidelines with only marginal exceedances of limits, indicating that the scenario objectives were

  20. Plant distributions in the southwestern United States; a scenario assessment of the modern-day and future distribution ranges of 166 Species

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Kathryn A.; Guertin, Patricia P.; Gass, Leila

    2012-01-01

    The authors developed spatial models of the predicted modern-day suitable habitat (SH) of 166 dominant and indicator plant species of the southwestern United States (herein referred to as the Southwest) and then conducted a coarse assessment of potential future changes in the distribution of their suitable habitat under three climate-change scenarios for two time periods. We used Maxent-based spatial modeling to predict the modern-day and future scenarios of SH for each species in an over 342-million-acre area encompassing all or parts of six states in the Southwest--Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah. Modern-day SH models were predicted by our using 26 annual and monthly average temperature and precipitation variables, averaged for the years 1971-2000. Future SH models were predicted for each species by our using six climate models based on application of the average of 16 General Circulation Models to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emission scenarios B1, A1B, and A2 for two time periods, 2040 to 2069 and 2070 and 2100, referred to respectively as the 2050 and 2100 time periods. The assessment examined each species' vulnerability to loss of modern-day SH under future climate scenarios, potential to gain SH under future climate scenarios, and each species' estimated risk as a function of both vulnerability and potential gains. All 166 species were predicted to lose modern-day SH in the future climate change scenarios. In the 2050 time period, nearly 30 percent of the species lost 75 percent or more of their modern-day suitable habitat, 21 species gained more new SH than their modern-day SH, and 30 species gained less new SH than 25 percent of their modern-day SH. In the 2100 time period, nearly half of the species lost 75 percent or more of their modern-day SH, 28 species gained more new SH than their modern-day SH, and 34 gained less new SH than 25 percent of their modern-day SH. Using nine risk categories we found only two

  1. Socio-economic scenario development for the assessment of climate change impacts on agricultural land use: a pairwise comparison approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Abildtrup, Jens; Audsley, E.; Fekete-Farkas, M.;

    2006-01-01

    on European agricultural land use. The scenarios are interpreted from the storylines described in the intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) special report on emission scenarios (SRES), which ensures internal consistency between the evolution of socio-economics and climate change. A stepwise...... for each of the four SRES scenario families. In the second step, European agricultural driving forces are derived for each scenario from global driving forces. Finally, parameters for the agricultural land use model are quantified. The stepwise procedure is appropriate when developing socio......Assessment of the vulnerability of agriculture to climate change is strongly dependent on concurrent changes in socio-economic development pathways. This paper presents an integrated approach to the construction of socio-economic scenarios required for the analysis of climate change impacts...

  2. The use of engineering design scenarios to assess student knowledge of global, societal, economic, and environmental contexts

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKenna, Ann F.; Hynes, Morgan M.; Johnson, Amy M.; Carberry, Adam R.

    2016-07-01

    Product archaeology as an educational approach asks engineering students to consider and explore the broader societal and global impacts of a product's manufacturing, distribution, use, and disposal on people, economics, and the environment. This study examined the impact of product archaeology in a project-based engineering design course on student attitudes and perceptions about engineering and abilities to extend and refine knowledge about broader contexts. Two design scenarios were created: one related to dental hygiene and one related to vaccination delivery. Design scenarios were used to (1) assess knowledge of broader contexts, and (2) test variability of student responses across different contextual situations. Results from pre- to post-surveying revealed improved student perceptions of knowledge of broader contexts. Significant differences were observed between the two design scenarios. The findings support the assumption that different design scenarios elicit consideration of different contexts and design scenarios can be constructed to target specific contextual considerations.

  3. Life cycle assessment and residue leaching: The importance of parameter, scenario and leaching data selection

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Allegrini, Elisa; Butera, Stefania; Kosson, D.S.;

    2015-01-01

    , due to the potential leaching of toxic substances. In waste LCA studies where residue utilisation is included, leaching has generally been neglected. In this study, municipal solid waste incineration bottom ash (MSWI BA) was used as a case study into three LCA scenarios having different system......Residues from industrial processes and waste management systems (WMSs) have been increasingly reutilised, leading to landfilling rate reductions and the optimisation of mineral resource utilisation in society. Life cycle assessment (LCA) is a holistic methodology allowing for the analysis...... of systems and products and can be applied to waste management systems to identify environmental benefits and critical aspects thereof. From an LCA perspective, residue utilisation provides benefits such as avoiding the production and depletion of primary materials, but it can lead to environmental burdens...

  4. A web-based 3D visualisation and assessment system for urban precinct scenario modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trubka, Roman; Glackin, Stephen; Lade, Oliver; Pettit, Chris

    2016-07-01

    Recent years have seen an increasing number of spatial tools and technologies for enabling better decision-making in the urban environment. They have largely arisen because of the need for cities to be more efficiently planned to accommodate growing populations while mitigating urban sprawl, and also because of innovations in rendering data in 3D being well suited for visualising the urban built environment. In this paper we review a number of systems that are better known and more commonly used in the field of urban planning. We then introduce Envision Scenario Planner (ESP), a web-based 3D precinct geodesign, visualisation and assessment tool, developed using Agile and Co-design methods. We provide a comprehensive account of the tool, beginning with a discussion of its design and development process and concluding with an example use case and a discussion of the lessons learned in its development.

  5. A scenario neutral approach to assess low flow sensitivity to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sauquet, Eric; Prudhomme, Christel

    2015-04-01

    Most impact studies of climate change on river flow regime are performed following top-down approaches, where changes in hydrological characteristics are obtained from rainfall-runoff models forced by downscaled projections provided by GCMs. However, such approaches are not always considered robust enough to bridge the gap between climate research and stake holders needs to develop relevant adaptation strategy (Wilby et al., 2014). Alternatively, 'bottom-up' approaches can be applied to climate change impact studies on water resources to assess the intrinsic vulnerability of the catchments and ultimately help to prioritize adaptation actions for areas highly sensitive to small deviations from the present-day climate conditions. A general framework combining the scenario-neutral methodology developed by Prudhomme et al. (2010) and climate elasticity analyses (Sankarasubramanian et al., 2001) is presented and applied to measure the vulnerability of low flows and droughts on a large dataset of more than 400 French gauged basins. The different steps involved in the suggested framework are: - Calibration of the GR5J rainfall runoff model (Pushpalatha et al., 2011) against observations, - Identification of the main climate factors influencing low flows, - Definition of the sensitivity domain for precipitation (P), temperature (T) and potential evapotranspiration (PE) scenarios consistent with most recent climate change projections, - Derivation of the response surface describing changes in low flow and drought regime in terms of severity, duration and seasonality (Catalogne, 2012), - Uncertainty assessment. Results are the basis for a classification of river basins according to their sensitivity at national scale and for discussions on adaptation requirements with stakeholders. Catalogne C (2012) Amélioration des méthodes de prédétermination des débits de référence d'étiage en sites peu ou pas jaugés. PHD thesis, Université Joseph Fourier, Grenoble, 285 pp

  6. Radioactive waste assessment using 'minimum waste generation' scenario - summary report March 1984

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This report describes an assessment of radioactive waste management arisings from a defined nuclear power generation - Scheme 1. Scheme 1 assumes a minimum waste generation scenario with raw waste arisings from 3 main groups; (i) existing and committed commercial reactors; (ii) fuel reprocessing plants, (iii) research, industry and medicine. No decommissioning wastes are considered except for arisings from the final fuel cores from decommissioned reactors. The study uses the SIMULATION2 code which models waste material flows through the system. With a knowledge of the accumulations and average production rates of the raw wastes and their isotopic compositions (or total activities), the rates at which conditioned wastes become available for transportation and disposal are calculated, with specific activity levels. The data bases for the inventory calculations and the assumptions concerning future operation of nuclear facilities were those current in 1983. Both the inventory data and plans for the future of existing nuclear installations have been updated since these calculations were completed. Therefore the results from this assessment do not represent the most up-to-date information available. The report does, however, illustrate the methodology of assessment and indicates the type of information that can be generated. (author)

  7. Public Review Draft: A Method for Assessing Carbon Stocks, Carbon Sequestration, and Greenhouse-Gas Fluxes in Ecosystems of the United States Under Present Conditions and Future Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bergamaschi, Brian A.; Bernknopf, Richard; Clow, David; Dye, Dennis; Faulkner, Stephen; Forney, William; Gleason, Robert; Hawbaker, Todd; Liu, Jinxun; Liu, Shu-Guang; Prisley, Stephen; Reed, Bradley; Reeves, Matthew; Rollins, Matthew; Sleeter, Benjamin; Sohl, Terry; Stackpoole, Sarah; Stehman, Stephen; Striegl, Rob; Wein, Anne; Zhu, Zhi-Liang; Zhu, Zhi-Liang

    2010-01-01

    The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA), Section 712, authorizes the U.S. Department of the Interior to develop a methodology and conduct an assessment of the Nation's ecosystems focusing on carbon stocks, carbon sequestration, and emissions of three greenhouse gases (GHGs): carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide. The major requirements include (1) an assessment of all ecosystems (terrestrial systems, such as forests, croplands, wetlands, shrub and grasslands; and aquatic ecosystems, such as rivers, lakes, and estuaries), (2) an estimation of annual potential capacities of ecosystems to increase carbon sequestration and reduce net GHG emissions in the context of mitigation strategies (including management and restoration activities), and (3) an evaluation of the effects of controlling processes, such as climate change, land use and land cover, and wildlfires. The purpose of this draft methodology for public review is to propose a technical plan to conduct the assessment. Within the methodology, the concepts of ecosystems, carbon pools, and GHG fluxes used for the assessment follow conventional definitions in use by major national and international assessment or inventory efforts. In order to estimate current ecosystem carbon stocks and GHG fluxes and to understand the potential capacity and effects of mitigation strategies, the method will use two time periods for the assessment: 2001 through 2010, which establishes a current ecosystem GHG baseline and will be used to validate the models; and 2011 through 2050, which will be used to assess future potential conditions based on a set of projected scenarios. The scenario framework is constructed using storylines of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report Emission Scenarios (SRES), along with initial reference land-use and land-cover (LULC) and land-management scenarios. An additional three LULC and land-management mitigation scenarios will be constructed for each

  8. An assessment of the potentials of nuclear power and carbon capture and storage in the long-term global warming mitigation options based on Asian Modeling Exercise scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper presents an evaluation of global warming mitigation options based on scenarios from the Asian Modeling Exercise. Using an extended version of the integrated assessment model MARIA-23 (Multiregional Approach for Resource and Industry Allocation), we analyze nuclear fuel recycling options, carbon capture and storage technologies (CCS), and biomass utilization. To assess the potential implications of decreased social acceptance of nuclear power in the wake of the Fukushima nuclear accident, additional scenarios including a nuclear power expansion limitation, are analyzed. We also evaluate MARIA-23 model simulation estimates of long-term contributions and interrelationships among nuclear power, biomass, and CCS. Finally, potential costs of nuclear limitation under carbon control policies are assessed. The simulation results in this paper suggest the following: (1) under the reference scenario, global GDP losses in climate limitation scenarios range from 1.3% per year to 3.9% per year in 2060, rising to between 3.5% per year and 4.5% per year in 2100; (2) the use of nuclear fuel reprocessing technologies increase rapidly in all carbon control policy scenarios; (3) under a scenario where the price of CO2 is $30 and nuclear power expansion is strictly limited, GDP losses increase significantly—from 4.5% per year to 6.4% per year by 2100; (4) nuclear power and CCS are substitute mitigation technologies. With nuclear power technology available CCS deployment reaches approximately 15,000 Mt-CO2 per year by 2010; without a nuclear power option, CCS deployment rises to more than 80,000 Mt-CO2 per year; and (5) biomass utilization cannot fully compensate for limitations to nuclear power expansion in policy scenarios. In addition to examining the role of these three technologies on global scales, we report results for several major Asian regions, namely Japan, China, and India. China tends to deploy nuclear power (if available) in response to rapidly growing power

  9. Handling Qualities Evaluations of Low Complexity Model Reference Adaptive Controllers for Reduced Pitch and Roll Damping Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanson, Curt; Schaefer, Jacob; Burken, John J.; Johnson, Marcus; Nguyen, Nhan

    2011-01-01

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) researchers have conducted a series of flight experiments designed to study the effects of varying levels of adaptive controller complexity on the performance and handling qualities of an aircraft under various simulated failure or damage conditions. A baseline, nonlinear dynamic inversion controller was augmented with three variations of a model reference adaptive control design. The simplest design consisted of a single adaptive parameter in each of the pitch and roll axes computed using a basic gradient-based update law. A second design was built upon the first by increasing the complexity of the update law. The third and most complex design added an additional adaptive parameter to each axis. Flight tests were conducted using NASA s Full-scale Advanced Systems Testbed, a highly modified F-18 aircraft that contains a research flight control system capable of housing advanced flight controls experiments. Each controller was evaluated against a suite of simulated failures and damage ranging from destabilization of the pitch and roll axes to significant coupling between the axes. Two pilots evaluated the three adaptive controllers as well as the non-adaptive baseline controller in a variety of dynamic maneuvers and precision flying tasks designed to uncover potential deficiencies in the handling qualities of the aircraft, and adverse interactions between the pilot and the adaptive controllers. The work was completed as part of the Integrated Resilient Aircraft Control Project under NASA s Aviation Safety Program.

  10. Participatory Approach to Long-Term Socio-Economic Scenarios as Building Block of a Local Vulnerability and Risk Assessment Tool - The Case Study Lienz (East-Tyrol)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyer, Ina; Eder, Brigitte; Hama, Michiko; Leitner, Markus

    2016-04-01

    Risks associated with climate change are mostly still understood and analyzed in a sector- or hazard-specific and rarely in a systemic, dynamic and scenario-based manner. In addition, socio-economic trends are often neglected in local vulnerability and risk assessments although they represent potential key determinants of risk and vulnerability. The project ARISE (Adaptation and Decision Support via Risk Management Through Local Burning Embers) aims at filling this gap by applying a participatory approach to socio-economic scenario building as building block of a local vulnerability assessment and risk management tool. Overall, ARISE aims at developing a decision support system for climate-sensitive iterative risk management as a key adaptation tool for the local level using Lienz in the East-Tyrol as a test-site City. One central building block is participatory socio-economic scenario building that - together with regionalized climate change scenarios - form a centrepiece in the process-oriented assessment of climate change risks and vulnerability. Major vulnerabilities and risks may stem from the economic performance, the socio-economic or socio-demographic developments or changes in asset exposition and not from climate change impacts themselves. The IPCC 5th assessment report underlines this and states that for most economic sectors, the impact of climate change may be small relative to the impacts of other driving forces such as changes in population growth, age, income, technology, relative prices, lifestyle, regulation, governance and many other factors in the socio-economy (Arent et al., 2014). The paper presents the methodology, process and results with respect to the building of long-term local socio-economic scenarios for the City of Lienz and the surrounding countryside. Scenarios were developed in a participatory approach using a scenario workshop that involved major stakeholders from the region. Participatory approaches are increasingly recognized as

  11. Assessing the effort sharing for greenhouse gas emission reductions in ambitious global climate scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ekholm, T.; Soimakallio, S.; Hoehne, N.; Moltmann, S.; Syri, S.

    2008-11-15

    To reinforce the long-term commitment to climate change mitigation, the post-2012 climate policy framework is aimed to be completed by 2009. The new agreement needs to include a wider participation of parties, and therefore needs to address the effort sharing of countries. The mitigation capabilities and the responsibilities of countries do however vary significantly. This can, in principle, be overcome with a cap-and-trade system, with which the question of equity is addressed trough the allocation of emission allowances. A number of effort sharing schemes have been proposed. Effort sharing however suffers from a fundamental trade-off between detail and transparency on how the emission allocations are calculated. This study addresses this problem by comparing and combining the results from a transparent but simplified effort sharing model EVOC, and a detailed and due to its complexity seemingly non-transparent ETSAP-TIAM energy system model. The aim of the study is to evaluate the goodness of the initial effort sharing, particularly in terms of mitigation costs experienced by different regions in the scenarios. Based on the long-term energy-climate scenarios crafted with the TIAM model, we assess the resulting consequences in emission profiles and the energy system, concentrating especially on regional mitigation costs and emission trading. Two cases of market failures in emission trading are also considered. Finally we compare the mitigation potentials between the two models and estimate the effect of EVOC recalibration on the national emission allowances. The results of the study underline particularly the importance of detailed and reliable assumptions for the mitigation potentials of different countries in the effort sharing process. (orig.)

  12. A long-term, integrated impact assessment of alternative building energy code scenarios in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    China is the second largest building energy user in the world, ranking first and third in residential and commercial energy consumption. Beginning in the early 1980s, the Chinese government has developed a variety of building energy codes to improve building energy efficiency and reduce total energy demand. This paper studies the impact of building energy codes on energy use and CO2 emissions by using a detailed building energy model that represents four distinct climate zones each with three building types, nested in a long-term integrated assessment framework GCAM. An advanced building stock module, coupled with the building energy model, is developed to reflect the characteristics of future building stock and its interaction with the development of building energy codes in China. This paper also evaluates the impacts of building codes on building energy demand in the presence of economy-wide carbon policy. We find that building energy codes would reduce Chinese building energy use by 13–22% depending on building code scenarios, with a similar effect preserved even under the carbon policy. The impact of building energy codes shows regional and sectoral variation due to regionally differentiated responses of heating and cooling services to shell efficiency improvement. - Highlights: • We assessed long-term impacts of building codes and climate policy using GCAM. • Building energy codes would reduce Chinese building energy use by 13–22%. • The impacts of codes on building energy use vary by climate region and sub-sector

  13. A study assessing patient satisfaction in a tertiary care hospital in India: the changing healthcare scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agarwal, Aashima; Garg, Shalini; Pareek, Udai

    2009-06-01

    The healthcare service scenario in India is expected to evolve into a more developed stage. More emphasis has been given on patient satisfaction as this is an important consideration for the assessment of the hospital services. The concept of patient satisfaction is also rapidly changing and the hospitals are using variety of techniques to improve patient care and organizational efficiency. Patient satisfaction questionnaire is a validated instrument to assess the level of the satisfaction of adult patients. The questionnaire was administered on those patients who were admitted in hospital for at least three days. In our study 88% patients were satisfied with treatment and medical care they had received. About 86% patients found that the hospital services were excellent. However, it is felt that patient values and culture should be explored for further improving patient doctor communication. There is hence a scope for improvement in meeting patient's needs and preferences and rendering hospital services. This can be achieved by some feedback system which could be available to the patients and later worked upon by the management, to improve the patient care by bridging the gap between senior management and patients. PMID:22010498

  14. From "farm to fork" strawberry system: current realities and potential innovative scenarios from life cycle assessment of non-renewable energy use and green house gas emissions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Girgenti, Vincenzo; Peano, Cristiana; Baudino, Claudio; Tecco, Nadia

    2014-03-01

    In this study, we analysed the environmental profile of the strawberry industry in Northern Italy. The analysis was conducted using two scenarios as reference systems: strawberry crops grown in unheated plastic tunnels using currently existing cultivation techniques, post-harvest management practices and consumption patterns (scenario 1) and the same strawberry cultivation chain in which some of the materials used were replaced with bio-based materials (scenario 2). In numerous studies, biodegradable polymers have been shown to be environmentally friendly, thus potentially reducing environmental impacts. These materials can be recycled into carbon dioxide and water through composting. Many materials, such as Mater-BI® and PLA®, are also derived from renewable resources. The methodology chosen for the environmental analysis was a life cycle assessment (LCA) based on a consequential approach developed to assess a product's overall environmental impact from the production system to its usage and disposal. In the field stage, a traditional mulching film (non-biodegradable) could be replaced with a biodegradable product. This change would result in waste production of 0 kg/ha for the bio-based product compared to 260 kg/ha of waste for polyethylene (PE). In the post-harvest stage, the issue addressed was the use and disposal of packaging materials. The innovative scenario evaluated herein pertains to the use of new packaging materials that increase the shelf life of strawberries, thereby decreasing product losses while increasing waste management efficiency at the level of a distribution platform and/or sales outlet. In the event of product deterioration or non-sale of the product, the packaging and its contents could be collected together as organic waste without any additional processes because the packaging is compostable according to EN13432. Scenario 2 would achieve reductions of 20% in the global warming potential and non-renewable energy impact categories. PMID

  15. From "farm to fork" strawberry system: current realities and potential innovative scenarios from life cycle assessment of non-renewable energy use and green house gas emissions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Girgenti, Vincenzo; Peano, Cristiana; Baudino, Claudio; Tecco, Nadia

    2014-03-01

    In this study, we analysed the environmental profile of the strawberry industry in Northern Italy. The analysis was conducted using two scenarios as reference systems: strawberry crops grown in unheated plastic tunnels using currently existing cultivation techniques, post-harvest management practices and consumption patterns (scenario 1) and the same strawberry cultivation chain in which some of the materials used were replaced with bio-based materials (scenario 2). In numerous studies, biodegradable polymers have been shown to be environmentally friendly, thus potentially reducing environmental impacts. These materials can be recycled into carbon dioxide and water through composting. Many materials, such as Mater-BI® and PLA®, are also derived from renewable resources. The methodology chosen for the environmental analysis was a life cycle assessment (LCA) based on a consequential approach developed to assess a product's overall environmental impact from the production system to its usage and disposal. In the field stage, a traditional mulching film (non-biodegradable) could be replaced with a biodegradable product. This change would result in waste production of 0 kg/ha for the bio-based product compared to 260 kg/ha of waste for polyethylene (PE). In the post-harvest stage, the issue addressed was the use and disposal of packaging materials. The innovative scenario evaluated herein pertains to the use of new packaging materials that increase the shelf life of strawberries, thereby decreasing product losses while increasing waste management efficiency at the level of a distribution platform and/or sales outlet. In the event of product deterioration or non-sale of the product, the packaging and its contents could be collected together as organic waste without any additional processes because the packaging is compostable according to EN13432. Scenario 2 would achieve reductions of 20% in the global warming potential and non-renewable energy impact categories.

  16. Statistical downscaling of the French Mediterranean climate: assessment for present and projection in an anthropogenic scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Lavaysse

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available The Mediterranean basin is a particularly vulnerable region to climate change, featuring a sharply contrasted climate between the North and South and governed by a semi-enclosed sea with pronounced surrounding topography covering parts of the Europe, Africa and Asia regions. The physiographic specificities contribute to produce mesoscale atmospheric features that can evolve to high-impact weather systems such as heavy precipitation, wind storms, heat waves and droughts. The evolution of these meteorological extremes in the context of global warming is still an open question, partly because of the large uncertainty associated with existing estimates produced by global climate models (GCM with coarse horizontal resolution (~200 km. Downscaling climatic information at a local scale is, thus, needed to improve the climate extreme prediction and to provide relevant information for vulnerability and adaptation studies. In this study, we investigate wind, temperature and precipitation distributions for past recent climate and future scenarios at eight meteorological stations in the French Mediterranean region using one statistical downscaling model, referred as the "Cumulative Distribution Function transform" (CDF-t approach. A thorough analysis of the uncertainty associated with statistical downscaling and bi-linear interpolation of large-scale wind speed, temperature and rainfall from reanalyses (ERA-40 and three GCM historical simulations, has been conducted and quantified in terms of Kolmogorov-Smirnov scores. CDF-t produces a more accurate and reliable local wind speed, temperature and rainfall. Generally, wind speed, temperature and rainfall CDF obtained with CDF-t are significantly similar with the observed CDF, even though CDF-t performance may vary from one station to another due to the sensitivity of the driving large-scale fields or local impact. CDF-t has then been applied to climate simulations of the 21st century under B1 and A2 scenarios

  17. Assessing Regional Scale Variability in Extreme Value Statistics Under Altered Climate Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brunsell, Nathaniel [University of Kansas; Mechem, David [University of Kansas; Ma, Chunsheng [Wichita State University

    2015-02-20

    validity of an innovative multi–resolution information theory approach, and the ability of the RCM modeling framework to represent the low-frequency modulation of extreme climate events. Once the skill of the modeling and analysis methodology has been established, we will apply the same approach for the AR5 (IPCC Fifth Assessment Report) climate change scenarios in order to assess how climate extremes and the the influence of lowfrequency variability on climate extremes might vary under changing climate. The research specifically addresses the DOE focus area 2. Simulation of climate extremes under a changing climate. Specific results will include (1) a better understanding of the spatial and temporal structure of extreme events, (2) a thorough quantification of how extreme values are impacted by low-frequency climate teleconnections, (3) increased knowledge of current regional climate models ability to ascertain these influences, and (4) a detailed examination of the how the distribution of extreme events are likely to change under different climate change scenarios. In addition, this research will assess the ability of the innovative wavelet information theory approach to characterize extreme events. Any and all of these results will greatly enhance society’s ability to understand and mitigate the regional ramifications of future global climate change.

  18. Assessing reference evapotranspiration in a subhumid climate in NE Austria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nolz, Reinhard; Eitzinger, Josef; Cepuder, Peter

    2015-04-01

    Computing reference evapotranspiration and multiplying it with a specific crop coefficient as recommended by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) is the most widely accepted approach to estimate plant water requirements. The standardized form of the well-known FAO Penman-Monteith equation, published by the Environmental and Water Resources Institute of the American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE-EWRI), is recommended as a standard procedure for calculating reference evapotranspiration. Applied and validated under different climatic conditions it generally achieved good results compared to other methods. However, several studies documented deviations between measured and calculated reference evapotranspiration depending on local environmental conditions. Consequently, it seems advisable to evaluate the model under local environmental conditions. Evapotranspiration was determined at a subhumid site in Austria (48°12'N, 16°34'E; 157 m asl) using a large weighing lysimeter operated at (limited) reference conditions and compared with calculations according to ASCE-EWRI. The lysimeter had an inner diameter of 1.9 m and a hemispherical bottom with a maximum depth of 2.5 m. Seepage water was measured at a free draining outlet using a tipping bucket. Lysimeter mass changes were sensed by a weighing facility with an accuracy of ±0.1 mm. Both rainfall and evapotranspiration were determined directly from lysimeter data using a simple water balance equation. Meteorological data for the ASCE-EWRI model were obtained from a weather station of the Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics, Austria (ZAMG). The study period was from 2005 to 2010, analyses were based upon daily time steps. Daily calculated reference evapotranspiration was generally overestimated at small values, whereas it was rather underestimated when evapotranspiration was large, which is supported also by other studies. In the given case, advection of sensible heat proved

  19. Seismic Hazard Assessment for a Characteristic Earthquake Scenario: Probabilistic-Deterministic Method

    Science.gov (United States)

    mouloud, Hamidatou

    2016-04-01

    The objective of this paper is to analyze the seismic activity and the statistical treatment of seismicity catalog the Constantine region between 1357 and 2014 with 7007 seismic event. Our research is a contribution to improving the seismic risk management by evaluating the seismic hazard in the North-East Algeria. In the present study, Earthquake hazard maps for the Constantine region are calculated. Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is classically performed through the Cornell approach by using a uniform earthquake distribution over the source area and a given magnitude range. This study aims at extending the PSHA approach to the case of a characteristic earthquake scenario associated with an active fault. The approach integrates PSHA with a high-frequency deterministic technique for the prediction of peak and spectral ground motion parameters in a characteristic earthquake. The method is based on the site-dependent evaluation of the probability of exceedance for the chosen strong-motion parameter. We proposed five sismotectonique zones. Four steps are necessary: (i) identification of potential sources of future earthquakes, (ii) assessment of their geological, geophysical and geometric, (iii) identification of the attenuation pattern of seismic motion, (iv) calculation of the hazard at a site and finally (v) hazard mapping for a region. In this study, the procedure of the earthquake hazard evaluation recently developed by Kijko and Sellevoll (1992) is used to estimate seismic hazard parameters in the northern part of Algeria.

  20. Comparative assessment of the European and Latin American scenarios for NORM/TENORM exposure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The geological formation of the areas of high natural radioactivity are usually associated with mineral ores commercially important. As a consequence, extracting industries are installed in or near those areas. Several industrial products and byproducts can be obtained from thorium, uranium and potassium rich mineral ores, for example: niobium concentrate from pyrochlore; monazite, ilmenite, rutile and zirconite concentrates from monazite sands; phosphate fertilizers from apatite; tin and lead from cassiterite; gold and copper form a variety of thorium and uranium rich mineral matrices. Other industries like oil- and natural gas production and processing, production of thoriated tungsten lamps, welding, gas mantles and pigments produce non-negligible amounts of wastes containing technologically enhanced naturally occurring radioactive materials (TENORM). In addition, quite frequently unknown amounts of natural radionuclides end up embedded in a variety of consumer products. Thus, naturally occurring radioactive materials (NORM) as well as TENORM in consumer products and/or industrial wastes may be of importance as far as human exposures are concerned. This work will present a comparative assessment of the radiological significance of different NORM/TENORM exposure scenarios in Europe and Latin America. (author)

  1. Parameter variation and scenario analysis in impact assessments of emerging energy technologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breunig, Hanna Marie

    There is a global need for energy technologies that reduce the adverse impacts of societal progress and that address today's challenges without creating tomorrow's problems. Life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) can support technology developers in achieving these prerequisites of sustainability by providing a systems perspective. However, modeling the early-stage scale up and impacts of technology systems may lead to unreliable or incomplete results due to a lack of representative technical, spatial, and temporal data. The goal of this dissertation is to support the acceleration of clean energy technology development by providing information about the regional variation of impacts and benefits resulting from plausible deployment scenarios. Three emerging energy technologies are selected as case studies: (1) brine management for carbon dioxide sequestration; (2) carbon dioxide capture, utilization, and sequestration; (3) stationary fuel cells for combined heat and power in commercial buildings. In all three case studies, priority areas are identified where more reliable data and models are necessary for reducing uncertainty, and vital information is revealed on how impacts vary spatially and temporally. Importantly, moving away from default technology and waste management hierarchies as a source of data fosters goal-driven systems thinking which in turn leads to the discovery of technology improvement potentials.

  2. Efficient Adoption and Assessment of Multiple Process Improvement Reference Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simona Jeners

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available A variety of reference models such as CMMI, COBIT or ITIL support IT organizations to improve their processes. These process improvement reference models (IRMs cover different domains such as IT development, IT Services or IT Governance but also share some similarities. As there are organizations that address multiple domains and need to coordinate their processes in their improvement we present MoSaIC, an approach to support organizations to efficiently adopt and conform to multiple IRMs. Our solution realizes a semantic integration of IRMs based on common meta-models. The resulting IRM integration model enables organizations to efficiently implement and asses multiple IRMs and to benefit from synergy effects.

  3. Natural environment assessment and vegetation indicators for IWRM scenarios in the Upper Brahmaputra River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagner, I.; Exler, N.; Janauer, G. A.

    2009-04-01

    The Brahmaputra River originates in the highest mountain massif of the world, the Western Himalaya. Fed by ice-melt, snow and also monsoon rain from the northern slope of the Himalaya Range in its reach in Tibet develops into a braided river with many channels in a wide valley, where it receives important tributaries like the Lhasa River, before entering the constrained reach of the Great Brahmaputra Gorge. Downstream of the Gorge the river enters even more diverse landscapes in intensively cultivated Assam, where the braided river bed reaches its greatest lateral expansion. Monsoon related flooding causes the most severe effects in this densely populated reach on the south-eastern rim of the Himalaya Range, but intense flooding is also a great threat at upper parts of the river and in populated areas of some tributaries. IWRM plays an important role with regard to mitigating climate change effects, whether too much or too little water is available for human uses. The assessment of the natural environment in a multi-scale approach leads to the identification of essential indicators, which are the basis for modelling scenarios of future development as the spatio-temporal processes vary within scale and along the course of this Large River. In our assessment it was necessary to aggregate local vegetation structures for a generalised description at larger scales to bridge the gap between the hydrological modelling scale and respective ecosystem services resulting from the existing vegetation types. These indicators can be used to evaluate the influence of different ecosystem types on related IWRM activities and policies. Aside from more general wetland ecosystem services like flood retention of support of livelihood for the neighbouring population a focus was also set on wetland and water body ecotones where detectable by high-resolution RS techniques to evaluate vulnerability and biodiversity aspects.

  4. How to manage uncertainty in future Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) scenarios addressing the effect of climate change in crop production

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Niero, Monia; Ingvordsen, Cathrine Heinz; Bagger Jørgensen, Rikke;

    2015-01-01

    ) level for the selected crop and performance of Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA) including normalization and contribution analysis, in order to identify the focus points in terms of impact categories, unit processes and substances; (2) identification of the main deviations from the baseline scenario......When Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is used to provide insights on how to pursue future food demand, it faces the challenge to describe scenarios of the future in which the environmental impacts occur. In the case of future crop production, the effects of climate change should be considered...... climate, soil, water loss and production parameters. Secondly, the handling of these factors in the inventory modeling is discussed and finally implemented in the case study. Our approach follows a 3-step procedure consisting of: (1) definition of a baseline scenario at the Life Cycle Inventory (LCI...

  5. Worst-case scenario approach to the tsunami hazard assessment for the Apulian coasts (southern Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armigliato, Alberto; Pagnoni, Gianluca; Zaniboni, Filippo; Tinti, Stefano

    2014-05-01

    In the framework of the Mediterranean basin, Apulia cannot be counted among the most active areas in terms of earthquake and tsunami activity. Nonetheless, in its northern part, which includes the Gargano peninsula, several earthquakes with magnitudes up to 6.7 occurred historically, some of which were also tsunamigenic. The most famous one is the 30 July 1627 event, which produced extensive inundation in the northern part of Gargano and relevant effects also in some portions of its southern side. Its parent fault is still a matter of debate, since both the inland epicentral location determined by macroseismic studies and the strike-slip dominant focal mechanism inferred from local geology are incompatible with a tsunami excitation capable of producing the effects reported by the coeval sources. Moreover, Apulia is bounded by much more tectonically active and tsunamigenic regions, such as the Dalmatia-Montenegro-Albania coastal belt to the East, the western Hellenic Arc to the South-East and the Calabrian arc to the South-West. Finally, Apulia is located in a strategic position in between eastern and western Europe, involving the installation of crucial international infrastructures, such as the Trans-Adriatic gas pipeline. For all the reasons mentioned above, performing an accurate assessment of the hazard related (at least) to earthquakes and tsunami impact in Apulia represents a need. The OTRIONS project developed a multi-parametric network for this purpose, and in its framework we studied the tsunami hazard along the Apulian coasts by means of a worst-case credible scenario approach. This involved the selection and characterisation of all possible tsunamigenic sources both at local and remote distances: this task was carried out as a shared effort with the Italian national RITMARE project. The recognised sources, mainly retrieved from the published literature and from databases available online, include tectonic faults as well as submarine landslides. The

  6. Life-cycle analysis of the total Danish energy system. An assessment of the present Danish energy system and selected furture scenarios. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kuemmel, B.; Soerensen, B.

    1997-01-01

    The promise of life-cycle analysis (LCA) is to enable the incorporation of environmental and social impacts into decision-making processes. The challenge is to do it on the basis of the always incomplete and uncertain data available, in a way that is sufficiently transparent to avoid that the modeller introduces any particular bias into the decision process, by the way of selecting and treating the incomplete data. The life-cycle analysis of the currently existing system is to be seen as a reference, against which alternative solutions to the same problem is weighed. However, as it takes time to introduce new systems, the alternative scenarios are for a future situation, which is chosen as the middle of the 21st century. The reason for using a 30-50 year period is a reflection on the time needed for a smooth transition to an energy system based on sources different from the ones used today, with implied differences all the way through the conversion and end-use system. A scenario will only be selected if it has been identified and if there is social support for it, so construction of more exotic scenarios by the researcher would only be meaningful, if its advantages are so convincing that an interest can be created and the necessary social support be forthcoming. One may say that the energy scenarios based on renewable energy sources are in this category, as they were identified by a minority group (of scientists and other individuals) and successfully brought to the attention of the public debate during 1970ies. In any case it should be kept in mind, that no claim of having identified the optimum solution can be made after assessing a finite number of scenarios. (EG) 88 refs.

  7. No-reference image sharpness assessment in autoregressive parameter space.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gu, Ke; Zhai, Guangtao; Lin, Weisi; Yang, Xiaokang; Zhang, Wenjun

    2015-10-01

    In this paper, we propose a new no-reference (NR)/blind sharpness metric in the autoregressive (AR) parameter space. Our model is established via the analysis of AR model parameters, first calculating the energy- and contrast-differences in the locally estimated AR coefficients in a pointwise way, and then quantifying the image sharpness with percentile pooling to predict the overall score. In addition to the luminance domain, we further consider the inevitable effect of color information on visual perception to sharpness and thereby extend the above model to the widely used YIQ color space. Validation of our technique is conducted on the subsets with blurring artifacts from four large-scale image databases (LIVE, TID2008, CSIQ, and TID2013). Experimental results confirm the superiority and efficiency of our method over existing NR algorithms, the stateof-the-art blind sharpness/blurriness estimators, and classical full-reference quality evaluators. Furthermore, the proposed metric can be also extended to stereoscopic images based on binocular rivalry, and attains remarkably high performance on LIVE3D-I and LIVE3D-II databases. PMID:26054063

  8. Environmental influences on mate preferences as assessed by a scenario manipulation experiment.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniele Marzoli

    Full Text Available Many evolutionary psychology studies have addressed the topic of mate preferences, focusing particularly on gender and cultural differences. However, the extent to which situational and environmental variables might affect mate preferences has been comparatively neglected. We tested 288 participants in order to investigate the perceived relative importance of six traits of an ideal partner (wealth, dominance, intelligence, height, kindness, attractiveness under four different hypothetical scenarios (status quo/nowadays, violence/post-nuclear, poverty/resource exhaustion, prosperity/global well-being. An equal number of participants (36 women, 36 men was allotted to each scenario; each was asked to allocate 120 points across the six traits according to their perceived value. Overall, intelligence was the trait to which participants assigned most importance, followed by kindness and attractiveness, and then by wealth, dominance and height. Men appraised attractiveness as more valuable than women. Scenario strongly influenced the relative importance attributed to traits, the main finding being that wealth and dominance were more valued in the poverty and post-nuclear scenarios, respectively, compared to the other scenarios. Scenario manipulation generally had similar effects in both sexes, but women appeared particularly prone to trade off other traits for dominance in the violence scenario, and men particularly prone to trade off other traits for wealth in the poverty scenario. Our results are in line with other correlational studies of situational variables and mate preferences, and represent strong evidence of a causal relationship of environmental factors on specific mate preferences, corroborating the notion of an evolved plasticity to current ecological conditions. A control experiment seems to suggest that our scenarios can be considered as realistic descriptions of the intended ecological conditions.

  9. Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) reference document. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This document describes the current status of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) as practiced in the nuclear reactor regulatory process. The PRA studies that have been completed or are under way are reviewed. The levels of maturity of the methodologies used in a PRA are discussed. Insights derived from PRAs are listed. The potential uses of PRA results for regulatory purposes are discussed. This document was issued for comment in February 1984 entitled Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA): Status Report and Guidance for Regulatory Application. The comments received on the draft have been considered for this final version of the report

  10. GIS analysis to apply theoretical Minimal Model on glacier flow line and assess glacier response in climate change scenarios

    OpenAIRE

    M. Moretti; Mattavelli, M; De Amicis, Mattia; Maggi, V

    2014-01-01

    The development of theoretical work about glacier dynamics has given rise to the construction of mathematical models to assess glacier response in climate change scenarios. Glacier are sentinels of climate condition and the Project of Interest NextData will favour new data production about the present and past climatic variability and future climate projections, as well as new assessments of the impact of climate change on environment. The aim of this specific research program is to develo...

  11. Combining modeling approaches for participatory integrated assessment of scenarios for agricultural systems: an application to cereal production systems in Camargue, South of France

    OpenAIRE

    Delmotte, Sylvestre; Lopez Ridaura, Santiago; Barbier, Jean Marc; Wéry, Jacques

    2012-01-01

    Models are common tools used for scenario assessment of agricultural systems. In this paper we present the combined application of three modeling approaches for participatory integrated assessment of scenarios for agriculture in the Camargue area (South of France). By means of a land use change analysis (LUC), an agent-based model (ABM), and a bio-economic model (BEM), we assessed with farmers and other stakeholders of the area scenarios related to the CAP reform and the possible extension of...

  12. NSARP [NIREX Safety Assessment Research Programme] reference document

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    UK Nirex Ltd is planning the development of a deep geological repository at Sellafield in Cumbria for the disposal of solid low-level and intermediate-level radioactive wastes. The post-closure performance assessments for this repository are being undertaken by the Disposal Safety Assessment Team (DSAT). It is supported by the Nirex Safety Assessment Research Programme (NSARP). The broad objectives of this programme are: to understand the important physical, chemical and biological processes that govern the transport of radionuclides away from the repository; to construct models that provide a good representation of these processes, allowing the description of what is currently observed and the prediction of future evolution; to provide data, by laboratory and field investigations, for the important parameters and radionuclides; to provide advice to Nirex on matters such as repository materials and to liaise with the DSAT, so that the research is focused on key processes and parameters. The NSARP focuses on supporting the assessments of release of radioactivity in groundwater and as a gas. This report describes the work of the NSARP in the area of radionuclide transport through the geosphere and the biosphere. (author)

  13. Extended Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for Coastal Impact Assessment: Spatial Coastal Population Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merkens, Jan-Ludolf; Reimann, Lena; Hinkel, Jochen; Vafeidis, Athanasios T.

    2016-04-01

    This work extends the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) by developing spatial projections of global coastal population distribution for the five basic SSPs. Based on a series of coastal migration drivers, which were identified from existing literature, we develop coastal narratives for the five basic SSPs (SSP1-5). These narratives account for differences in coastal versus inland population development in urban and rural areas. To spatially distribute population we use the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) national population and urbanisation projections and employ country-specific growth rates which differ for coastal and inland as well as for urban and rural regions. These rates are derived from spatial analysis of historical population data. We then adjust these rates for each SSP based on the coastal narratives. The resulting global population grids depict the projected distribution of coastal population for each SSP, until the end of the 21st century, at a spatial resolution of 30 arc seconds. These grids exhibit a three- to four-fold increase in coastal population compared to the basic SSPs. Across all SSPs, except for SSP3, coastal population peaks by the middle of the 21st century and declines afterwards. In SSP3 the coastal population grows continuously until 2100. Compared to the base year 2000 the coastal population increases considerably in all SSPs. The extended SSPs are intended to be utilised in Impact, Adaptation and Vulnerability (IAV) assessments as they allow for improved analysis of exposure to sea-level rise and coastal flooding under different physical and socioeconomic scenarios.

  14. Exposure Scenarios and Unit Dose Factors for the Hanford Immobilized Low Activity Tank Waste Performance Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    RITTMANN, P.D.

    1999-12-29

    Exposure scenarios are defined to identify potential pathways and combinations of pathways that could lead to radiation exposure from immobilized tank waste. Appropriate data and models are selected to permit calculation of dose factors for each exposure

  15. Assessing carbon stocks and modelling win-win scenarios of carbon sequestration through land-use changes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ponce-Hernandez, R.; Koohafkan, P.; Antoine, J. (eds.)

    2004-07-01

    This publication presents a methodology and software tools for assessing carbon stocks and modelling scenarios of carbon sequestration that were developed and tested in pilot field studies in Mexico and Cuba. The models and tools enable the analysis of land use change scenarios in order to identify in a given area (watershed or district) land use alternatives and land management practices that simultaneously maximize food production, maximize soil carbon sequestration, maximize biodiversity conservation and minimize land degradation. The objective is to develop and implement 'win-win' options that satisfy the multiple goals of farmers, land users and other stakeholders in relation to food security, carbon sequestration, biodiversity and land conservation.

  16. Using Crash Data to Develop Simulator Scenarios for Assessing Novice Driver Performance

    OpenAIRE

    McDonald, Catherine C.; Tanenbaum, Jason B.; Lee, Yi-Ching; Fisher, Donald L.; Mayhew, Daniel R.; Winston, Flaura K.

    2012-01-01

    Teenage drivers are at their highest crash risk in their first 6 months or first 1,000 mi of driving. Driver training, adult-supervised practice driving, and other interventions are aimed at improving driving performance in novice drivers. Previous driver training programs have enumerated thousands of scenarios, with each scenario requiring one or more skills. Although there is general agreement about the broad set of skills needed to become a competent driver, there is no c...

  17. Environmental assessment: Reference repository location, Hanford Site, Washington (US)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    none,

    1986-05-01

    This appendix responds to the issues raised by Federal, State, and local governments, affected Indian Tribes, private citizens, and other organizations on the draft environmental assessment (EA) that was prepared pursuant to Section 112 of the Nuclear Waste Policy Act of 1982. In addition to presenting the issues raised in the comments and the responses, it describes where changes were made in the final EA. 535 refs., 13 figs., 16 tabs.

  18. Proposed terms of reference : class environmental assessment for waterpower projects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2002-04-01

    Ontario's waterpower resources currently make up about 27 per cent of the province's energy supply, with an installed capacity of 8,150 MW. The remainder is comprised of 39 per cent nuclear, 32 per cent fossil fuels (coal, gas, and oil), and 2 per cent renewable energy sources such as solar and wind power. Of the 200 operating waterpower facilities in Ontario, two-thirds are located south of the French and Mattawa rivers. More than half of these were constructed before 1951. The waterpower facilities in Ontario range widely in capacity and energy production. Waterpower facilities consist of a main dam, a powerhouse, an auxiliary storage dam, an auxiliary block dam, penstock, tunnels, canals, weirs, aqueducts, spillways, electrical incorporation, and other auxiliary structures. A Class Environmental Assessment (EA) provides a planning process through which potential impacts can be assessed and addressed. Class EA streamlines the environmental assessment process by focusing on defined issues. The proposed waterpower Class EA will propose that undertaking be a process for the planning, designing, establishing, constructing, operating, expanding or retiring of waterpower facilities under 200 MW. 1 tab., 2 figs.

  19. Assessing impact of climate change on season length in Karnataka for IPCC SRES scenarios

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Aavudai Anandhi

    2010-08-01

    Changes in seasons and season length are an indicator, as well as an effect, of climate change. Seasonal change profoundly affects the balance of life in ecosystems and impacts essential human activities such as agriculture and irrigation. This study investigates the uncertainty of season length in Karnataka state, India, due to the choice of scenarios, season type and number of seasons. Based on the type of season, the monthly sequences of variables (predictors) were selected from datasets of NCEP and Canadian General Circulation Model (CGCM3). Seasonal stratifications were carried out on the selected predictors using K-means clustering technique. The results of cluster analysis revealed increase in average, wet season length in A2, A1B and B1 scenarios towards the end of 21st century. The increase in season length was higher for A2 scenario whereas it was the least for B1 scenario. COMMIT scenario did not show any change in season length. However, no change in average warm and cold season length was observed across the four scenarios considered. The number of seasons was increased from 2 to 5. The results of the analysis revealed that no distinct cluster could be obtained when the number of seasons was increased beyond three.

  20. Assessment of effectiveness of geologic isolation systems. A conceptual simulation model for release scenario analysis of a hypothetical site in Columbia Plateau Basalts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This report is a status report for an evolving methodology for release scenario development for underground nuclear waste repositories. As such, it is intended for use as a reference point and a preliminary description of an evolving geoscience methodology. When completed this methodology will be used as a tool in developing disruptive release scenarios for analyzing the long-term safety of geological nuclear waste repositories. While a basalt environment is used as an example, this report is not intended to reflect an actual site safety assessment for a repository in a media. It is rather intended to present a methodology system framework and to provide discussions of the geological phenomena and parameters that must be addressed in order to develop a methodology for potential release scenarios. It is also important to note that the phenomena, their interrelationships, and their relative importance along with the overall current structure of the model will change as new geological information is gathered through additional peer review, geotechnical input, site specific field work, and related research efforts

  1. References and social media in the assessment stage of the recruitment process

    OpenAIRE

    Brynjar Jóhannsson 1987

    2016-01-01

    This study was aimed at reviewing the use of references and social media as assessment methods during the assessment stage of the recruitment process. Studies have shown both to be fairly poor predictors for future performance, although both are quite frequently used. Interviews were conducted with ten human resource managers to review what using the methods provided them with as well as how references and social media were being used as assessment tools during the recruitment process. Th...

  2. Remediation strategies after nuclear or radiological accidents: part 2 - accident scenarios for assessing effectiveness of cleanup procedures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rochedo, Elaine R.R. [Comissao Nacional de Energia Nuclear (CNEN-RJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Coordenacao de Instalacoes Nucleares], e-mail: erochedo@cnen.gov.br; Silva, Diogo N.G.; Wasserman, Maria A.V.; Conti, Luiz F.C. [Instituto de Radioprotecao e Dosimetria (IRD/CNEN-RJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)], e-mail: dneves@ird.gov.br, e-mail: angelica@ird.gov.br, e-mail: lfcconti@ird.gov.br

    2009-07-01

    The selection of protective measures and remediation strategies after an accident needs to be based on previously established criteria, to minimize unnecessary stress and the exposures involved in cleanup operations that are not effective in reducing doses to the public. In a first stage, a database describing the countermeasures has been developed including their efficiency on removing contamination from surfaces. However, to assess the effectiveness of cleanup procedures in reducing doses to members of the public, it was necessary to derive specific scenarios in order to simulate the long term behavior of the material in the environment, since the contribution of different surfaces to doses changes with time after contamination. A basic release and exposure scenario was developed to assess the dose reduction due to the mostly used procedures. Exposure scenarios were selected to fit the surroundings of the Brazilian nuclear power plants in Angra dos Reis. Simulations were performed using SIEM, the integrated system for dose assessment after contamination events, developed at IRD. The contamination of urban environments was assessed for Cs-137, as this was found to be the most relevant long term radionuclide to contribute to doses to member of the public. The effects on reducing external exposures were assessed for periods up to 50 years after the contamination. For agricultural areas, the focus was on ingestion doses from contamination with I-131 for periods up to 1 year after contamination. Results will be complemented on the database in order to support multi-criteria decision making processes after accidents. (author)

  3. Assessment of impacts of agricultural and climate change scenarios on watershed water quantity and quality, and crop production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teshager, Awoke D.; Gassman, Philip W.; Schoof, Justin T.; Secchi, Silvia

    2016-08-01

    Modeling impacts of agricultural scenarios and climate change on surface water quantity and quality provides useful information for planning effective water, environmental and land use policies. Despite the significant impacts of agriculture on water quantity and quality, limited literature exists that describes the combined impacts of agricultural land use change and climate change on future bioenergy crop yields and watershed hydrology. In this study, the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) eco-hydrological model was used to model the combined impacts of five agricultural land use change scenarios and three downscaled climate pathways (representative concentration pathways, RCPs) that were created from an ensemble of eight atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs). These scenarios were implemented in a well-calibrated SWAT model for the intensively farmed and tiled Raccoon River watershed (RRW) located in western Iowa. The scenarios were executed for the historical baseline, early century, mid-century and late century periods. The results indicate that historical and more corn intensive agricultural scenarios with higher CO2 emissions consistently result in more water in the streams and greater water quality problems, especially late in the 21st century. Planting more switchgrass, on the other hand, results in less water in the streams and water quality improvements relative to the baseline. For all given agricultural landscapes simulated, all flow, sediment and nutrient outputs increase from early-to-late century periods for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios. We also find that corn and switchgrass yields are negatively impacted under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios in the mid- and late 21st century.

  4. A method for scenario-based risk assessment for robust aerospace systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Victoria Katherine

    involved in completing the modeling and simulation are: Alternative Solution Modeling, Uncertainty Quantification, Risk Assessment, and Risk Mitigation. Focus area three consists of Decision Support. In this area a decision support interface is created that allows for game playing between solution alternatives and risk mitigation. A multi-attribute decision making process is also implemented to aid in decision making. A demonstration problem inspired by Airbus' mid 1980s decision to break into the widebody long-range market was developed to illustrate the use of this method. The results showed that the method is able to capture additional types of risk than previous analysis methods, particularly at the early stages of aircraft design. It was also shown that the method can be used to help create a system that is robust to external environmental factors. The addition of an external environment risk analysis in the early stages of conceptual design can add another dimension to the analysis of feasibility and viability. The ability to take risk into account during the early stages of the design process can allow for the elimination of potentially feasible and viable but too-risky alternatives. The addition of a scenario-based analysis instead of a traditional probabilistic analysis enabled uncertainty to be effectively bound and examined over a variety of potential futures instead of only a single future. There is also potential for a product to be groomed for a specific future that one believes is likely to happen, or for a product to be steered during design as the future unfolds.

  5. Assessing integrity of weather data for reference evapotranspiration estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Procedures and guidelines are recommended for assessing integrity, quality, and reasonableness of measured weather data and equipment calibration for automated and electronic agricultural weather stations. The procedures include calculation of hourly and 24-h clear sky envelopes for solar radiation, validation of net radiation measurements using calculation equations, and evaluation of expected trends and relationships between air vapor content and air temperature. The procedures for creating clear sky solar radiation envelopes include equations to account for the effects of atmospheric water vapor content and sun angle. Procedures for adjusting air temperature and air vapor content data are introduced to compensate for the aridity of the weather station environment. All of the guidelines are simple and straightforward, and can serve as preliminary “filters” by which to scrutinize weather measurements and as near real-time data flagging procedures for agricultural weather networks. (author)

  6. Impact of river regulation on a Mediterranean delta: Assessment of managed versus unmanaged scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bergillos, Rafael J.; Rodríguez-Delgado, Cristóbal; Millares, Agustín.; Ortega-Sánchez, Miguel; Losada, Miguel A.

    2016-07-01

    This work addresses the effects of the construction of a reservoir 19 km from the mouth on the dynamics of the Guadalfeo delta (southern Spain), a Mediterranean delta in a semiarid and high-mountain basin. The sediment volume transported as bed load and accumulated in the delta was estimated under two scenarios by means of a calibrated hydrological model: a managed scenario, considering the flows drained by the dam, and an unmanaged scenario, considering the absence of such infrastructure. Bathymetric and topographic measurements were analyzed and correlated with the fluvial and maritime forcing agents. Results indicate that the reservoir has significantly modified the dynamics downstream: the coast has lost almost 0.3 hm3 of sediments since the entry into operation of the dam, generating a 1.4 km coastline retreat around the mouth, with a maximum retreat of 87 m (92% of the initial). The beach profile decreased by up to 820 m2, whereas the average decrease around the mouth was equal to 214 m2. Under unmanaged conditions, more than 2 hm3 of bed load would have reached the coast. Based on the results, three new management scenarios of flows drained by the dam, in combination with bypassed sediment from the reservoir, were proposed to prevent more severe consequences in the delta and the silting of the reservoir. The proposed methodology for new management scenarios can be extended to other worldwide deltas, especially to those in semiarid and Mediterranean basins, and it represents an advanced tool for decision making.

  7. Evaluating the adequacy of a reference site pool for ecological assessments in environmentally complex regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ode, Peter R.; Rehn, Andrew C.; Mazor, Raphael D.; Schiff, Kenneth C.; Stein, Eric D.; May, Jason; Brown, Larry R.; Herbst, David B.; Gillette, D.D.; Lunde, Kevin; Hawkins, Charles P.

    2016-01-01

    Many advances in the field of bioassessment have focused on approaches for objectively selecting the pool of reference sites used to establish expectations for healthy waterbodies, but little emphasis has been placed on ways to evaluate the suitability of the reference-site pool for its intended applications (e.g., compliance assessment vs ambient monitoring). These evaluations are critical because an inadequately evaluated reference pool may bias assessments in some settings. We present an approach for evaluating the adequacy of a reference-site pool for supporting biotic-index development in environmentally heterogeneous and pervasively altered regions. We followed common approaches for selecting sites with low levels of anthropogenic stress to screen 1985 candidate stream reaches to create a pool of 590 reference sites for assessing the biological integrity of streams in California, USA. We assessed the resulting pool of reference sites against 2 performance criteria. First, we evaluated how well the reference-site pool represented the range of natural gradients present in the entire population of streams as estimated by sites sampled through probabilistic surveys. Second, we evaluated the degree to which we were successful in rejecting sites influenced by anthropogenic stress by comparing biological metric scores at reference sites with the most vs fewest potential sources of stress. Using this approach, we established a reference-site pool with low levels of human-associated stress and broad coverage of environmental heterogeneity. This approach should be widely applicable and customizable to particular regional or programmatic needs.

  8. Children and adults exposed to electromagnetic fields at the ICNIRP reference levels: theoretical assessment of the induced peak temperature increase.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bakker, J F; Paulides, M M; Neufeld, E; Christ, A; Kuster, N; van Rhoon, G C

    2011-08-01

    To avoid potentially adverse health effects of electromagnetic fields (EMF), the International Commission on Non-Ionizing Radiation Protection (ICNIRP) has defined EMF reference levels. Restrictions on induced whole-body-averaged specific absorption rate (SAR(wb)) are provided to keep the whole-body temperature increase (T(body, incr)) under 1 °C during 30 min. Additional restrictions on the peak 10 g spatial-averaged SAR (SAR(10g)) are provided to prevent excessive localized tissue heating. The objective of this study is to assess the localized peak temperature increase (T(incr, max)) in children upon exposure at the reference levels. Finite-difference time-domain modeling was used to calculate T(incr, max) in six children and two adults exposed to orthogonal plane-wave configurations. We performed a sensitivity study and Monte Carlo analysis to assess the uncertainty of the results. Considering the uncertainties in the model parameters, we found that a peak temperature increase as high as 1 °C can occur for worst-case scenarios at the ICNIRP reference levels. Since the guidelines are deduced from temperature increase, we used T(incr, max) as being a better metric to prevent excessive localized tissue heating instead of localized peak SAR. However, we note that the exposure time should also be considered in future guidelines. Hence, we advise defining limits on T(incr, max) for specified durations of exposure. PMID:21772085

  9. Children and adults exposed to electromagnetic fields at the ICNIRP reference levels: theoretical assessment of the induced peak temperature increase

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bakker, J. F.; Paulides, M. M.; Neufeld, E.; Christ, A.; Kuster, N.; van Rhoon, G. C.

    2011-08-01

    To avoid potentially adverse health effects of electromagnetic fields (EMF), the International Commission on Non-Ionizing Radiation Protection (ICNIRP) has defined EMF reference levels. Restrictions on induced whole-body-averaged specific absorption rate (SARwb) are provided to keep the whole-body temperature increase (Tbody, incr) under 1 °C during 30 min. Additional restrictions on the peak 10 g spatial-averaged SAR (SAR10g) are provided to prevent excessive localized tissue heating. The objective of this study is to assess the localized peak temperature increase (Tincr, max) in children upon exposure at the reference levels. Finite-difference time-domain modeling was used to calculate Tincr, max in six children and two adults exposed to orthogonal plane-wave configurations. We performed a sensitivity study and Monte Carlo analysis to assess the uncertainty of the results. Considering the uncertainties in the model parameters, we found that a peak temperature increase as high as 1 °C can occur for worst-case scenarios at the ICNIRP reference levels. Since the guidelines are deduced from temperature increase, we used Tincr, max as being a better metric to prevent excessive localized tissue heating instead of localized peak SAR. However, we note that the exposure time should also be considered in future guidelines. Hence, we advise defining limits on Tincr, max for specified durations of exposure.

  10. Scenario-Based Sustainability Assessment to Provide Interactive Decision Support for the Long-Term Transition of Urban Water Supply Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Aydin, Nazli Yonca

    2014-01-01

    This dissertation focuses on the evaluation of technical and environmental sustainability of water distribution systems based on scenario analysis. The decision support system is created to assist in the decision making-process and to visualize the results of the sustainability assessment for current and future populations and scenarios. First, a methodology is developed to assess the technical and environmental sustainability for the current and future water distribution system scenarios. Th...

  11. Integrating land use and climate change scenarios and models into assessment of forested watershed services in Southern Thailand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trisurat, Yongyut; Eawpanich, Piyathip; Kalliola, Risto

    2016-05-01

    The Thadee watershed, covering 112km(2), is the main source of water for agriculture and household consumption in the Nakhon Srithammarat Province in Southern Thailand. As the natural forests upstream have been largely degraded and transformed to fruit tree and rubber plantations, problems with landslides and flooding have resulted. This research attempts to predict how further land-use/land-cover changes during 2009-2020 and conceivable changes in rainfall may influence the future levels of water yield and sediment load in the Thadee River. Three different land use scenarios (trend, development and conservation) were defined in collaboration with the local stakeholders, and three different rainfall scenarios (average rainfall, climate change and extreme wet) were determined on the basis of literature sources. Spatially explicit empirical modelling was employed to allocate future land demands and to assess the contributions of land use and rainfall changes, considering both their separate and combined effects. The results suggest that substantial land use changes may occur from a large expansion of rubber plantations in the upper sub-watersheds, especially under the development land use scenario. The reduction of the current annual rainfall by approximately 30% would decrease the predicted water yields by 38% from 2009. According to the extreme rainfall scenario (an increase of 36% with respect to current rainfall), an amplification of 50% of the current runoff could result. Sensitivity analyses showed that the predicted soil loss is more responsive to changes in rainfall than to the compared land use scenarios alone. However, very high sediment load and runoff levels were predicted on the basis of combined intensified land use and extreme rainfall scenarios. Three conservation activities-protection, reforestation and a mixed-cropping system-are proposed to maintain the functional watershed services of the Thadee watershed region. PMID:26915561

  12. Integrating land use and climate change scenarios and models into assessment of forested watershed services in Southern Thailand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trisurat, Yongyut; Eawpanich, Piyathip; Kalliola, Risto

    2016-05-01

    The Thadee watershed, covering 112km(2), is the main source of water for agriculture and household consumption in the Nakhon Srithammarat Province in Southern Thailand. As the natural forests upstream have been largely degraded and transformed to fruit tree and rubber plantations, problems with landslides and flooding have resulted. This research attempts to predict how further land-use/land-cover changes during 2009-2020 and conceivable changes in rainfall may influence the future levels of water yield and sediment load in the Thadee River. Three different land use scenarios (trend, development and conservation) were defined in collaboration with the local stakeholders, and three different rainfall scenarios (average rainfall, climate change and extreme wet) were determined on the basis of literature sources. Spatially explicit empirical modelling was employed to allocate future land demands and to assess the contributions of land use and rainfall changes, considering both their separate and combined effects. The results suggest that substantial land use changes may occur from a large expansion of rubber plantations in the upper sub-watersheds, especially under the development land use scenario. The reduction of the current annual rainfall by approximately 30% would decrease the predicted water yields by 38% from 2009. According to the extreme rainfall scenario (an increase of 36% with respect to current rainfall), an amplification of 50% of the current runoff could result. Sensitivity analyses showed that the predicted soil loss is more responsive to changes in rainfall than to the compared land use scenarios alone. However, very high sediment load and runoff levels were predicted on the basis of combined intensified land use and extreme rainfall scenarios. Three conservation activities-protection, reforestation and a mixed-cropping system-are proposed to maintain the functional watershed services of the Thadee watershed region.

  13. A proposal project for a blind image quality assessment by learning distortions from the full reference image quality assessments

    OpenAIRE

    Paris, Stéfane

    2015-01-01

    International audience This short paper presents a perspective plan to build a null reference image quality assessment. Its main goal is to deliver both the objective score and the distortion map for a given distorted image without the knowledge of its reference image.

  14. Scenario-based assessment of buildings' damage and population exposure due to earthquake-induced tsunamis for the town of Alexandria, Egypt

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pagnoni, G.; Armigliato, A.; Tinti, S.

    2015-12-01

    Alexandria is the second biggest city in Egypt with regards to population, is a key economic area in northern Africa and has very important tourist activity. Historical records indicate that it was severely affected by a number of tsunami events. In this work we assess the tsunami hazard by running numerical simulations of tsunami impact in Alexandria through the worst-case credible tsunami scenario analysis (WCTSA). We identify three main seismic sources: the western Hellenic Arc (WHA - reference event AD 365, Mw = 8.5), the eastern Hellenic Arc (EHA - reference event 1303, Mw = 8.0) and the Cyprus Arc (CA - hypothetical scenario earthquake with Mw = 8.0), inferred from the tectonic setting and from historical tsunami catalogues. All numerical simulations are carried out in two sea level conditions (mean sea level and maximum high-tide sea level) by means of the code UBO-TSUFD, developed and maintained by the Tsunami Research Team of the University of Bologna. Relevant tsunami metrics are computed for each scenario and then used to build aggregated fields such as the maximum flood depth and the maximum inundation area. We find that the case that produces the most relevant flooding in Alexandria is the EHA scenario, with wave heights up to 4 m. The aggregate fields are used for a building vulnerability assessment according to a methodology developed in the framework of the EU-FP6 project SCHEMA and further refined in this study, based on the adoption of a suitable building damage matrix and on water inundation depth. It is found that in the districts of El Dekhila and Al Amriyah, to the south-west of the port of Dekhila, over 12 000 (13 400 in the case of maximum high tide) buildings could be affected and hundreds of them could sustain damaging consequences, ranging from critical damage to total collapse. It is also found that in the same districts tsunami inundation covers an area of about 15 km2, resulting in more than 150 000 (165 000 in the case of maximum high

  15. Assessing groundwater pollution hazard changes under different socio-economic and environmental scenarios in an agricultural watershed

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper proposes a modeling approach for assessing changes in groundwater pollution hazard under two different socio-economic and environmental scenarios: The first one considers an exponential growth of agriculture land-use (Relegated Sustainability), while the other deals with regional economic growth, taking into account, the restrictions put on natural resources use (Sustainability Reforms). The recent (2011) and forecasted (2030) groundwater pollution hazard is evaluated based on hydrogeological parameters and, the impact of land-use changes in the groundwater system, coupling together a land-use change model (Dyna-CLUE) with a groundwater flow model (MODFLOW), as inputs to a decision system support (EMDS). The Dulce Stream Watershed (Pampa Plain, Argentina) was chosen to test the usefulness and utility of this proposed method. It includes a high level of agricultural activities, significant local extraction of groundwater resources for drinking water and irrigation and extensive available data regarding aquifer features. The Relegated Sustainability Scenario showed a negative change in the aquifer system, increasing (+ 20%; high–very high classes) the contribution to groundwater pollution hazard throughout the watershed. On the other hand, the Sustainability Reforms Scenario displayed more balanced land-use changes with a trend towards sustainability, therefore proposing a more acceptable change in the aquifer system for 2030 with a possible 2% increase (high–very high classes) in groundwater pollution hazard. Results in the recent scenario (2011) showed that 54% of Dulce Stream Watershed still shows a moderate to a very low contribution to groundwater pollution hazard (mainly in the lower area). Therefore, from the point of view of natural resource management, this is a positive aspect, offering possibilities for intervention in order to prevent deterioration and protect this aquifer system. However, since it is quite possible that this aquifer status

  16. Assessing groundwater pollution hazard changes under different socio-economic and environmental scenarios in an agricultural watershed

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lima, M. Lourdes, E-mail: mlima@mdp.edu.ar [Instituto de Geología de Costas y del Cuaternario, FCEyN, Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata, Funes 3350, Nivel 1, 7600 Mar del Plata (Argentina); Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (CONICET) (Argentina); Romanelli, Asunción, E-mail: aromanel@mdp.edu.ar [Instituto de Geología de Costas y del Cuaternario, FCEyN, Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata, Funes 3350, Nivel 1, 7600 Mar del Plata (Argentina); Instituto de Investigaciones Marinas y Costeras (IIMyC), Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (CONICET) (Argentina); Massone, Héctor E., E-mail: hmassone@mdp.edu.ar [Instituto de Geología de Costas y del Cuaternario, FCEyN, Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata, Funes 3350, Nivel 1, 7600 Mar del Plata (Argentina)

    2015-10-15

    This paper proposes a modeling approach for assessing changes in groundwater pollution hazard under two different socio-economic and environmental scenarios: The first one considers an exponential growth of agriculture land-use (Relegated Sustainability), while the other deals with regional economic growth, taking into account, the restrictions put on natural resources use (Sustainability Reforms). The recent (2011) and forecasted (2030) groundwater pollution hazard is evaluated based on hydrogeological parameters and, the impact of land-use changes in the groundwater system, coupling together a land-use change model (Dyna-CLUE) with a groundwater flow model (MODFLOW), as inputs to a decision system support (EMDS). The Dulce Stream Watershed (Pampa Plain, Argentina) was chosen to test the usefulness and utility of this proposed method. It includes a high level of agricultural activities, significant local extraction of groundwater resources for drinking water and irrigation and extensive available data regarding aquifer features. The Relegated Sustainability Scenario showed a negative change in the aquifer system, increasing (+ 20%; high–very high classes) the contribution to groundwater pollution hazard throughout the watershed. On the other hand, the Sustainability Reforms Scenario displayed more balanced land-use changes with a trend towards sustainability, therefore proposing a more acceptable change in the aquifer system for 2030 with a possible 2% increase (high–very high classes) in groundwater pollution hazard. Results in the recent scenario (2011) showed that 54% of Dulce Stream Watershed still shows a moderate to a very low contribution to groundwater pollution hazard (mainly in the lower area). Therefore, from the point of view of natural resource management, this is a positive aspect, offering possibilities for intervention in order to prevent deterioration and protect this aquifer system. However, since it is quite possible that this aquifer status

  17. Assessing risks and uncertainties in forest dynamics under different management scenarios and climate change

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Matthias; Albert; Jan; Hansen; Jürgen; Nagel; Matthias; Schmidt; Hermann; Spellmann

    2015-01-01

    Background: Forest management faces a climate induced shift in growth potential and increasing current and emerging new risks. Vulnerability analysis provides decision support based on projections of natural resources taking risks and uncertainties into account. In this paper we(1) characterize differences in forest dynamics under three management scenarios,(2) analyse the effects of the three scenarios on two risk factors, windthrow and drought stress, and(3) quantify the effects and the amount of uncertainty arising from climate projections on height increment and drought stress.Methods: In four regions in northern Germany, we apply three contrasting management scenarios and project forest development under climate change until 2070. Three climate runs(minimum, median, maximum) based on the emission scenario RCP 8.5 control the site-sensitive forest growth functions. The minimum and maximum climate run define the range of prospective climate development.Results: The projections of different management regimes until 2070 show the diverging medium-term effects of thinnings and harvests and long-term effects of species conversion on a regional scale. Examples of windthrow vulnerability and drought stress reveal how adaptation measures depend on the applied management path and the decision-maker’s risk attitude. Uncertainty analysis shows the increasing variability of drought risk projections with time. The effect of climate projections on height growth are quantified and uncertainty analysis reveals that height growth of young trees is dominated by the age-trend whereas the climate signal in height increment of older trees is decisive.Conclusions: Drought risk is a serious issue in the eastern regions independent of the applied silvicultural scenario,but adaptation measures are limited as the proportion of the most drought tolerant species Scots pine is already high. Windthrow risk is no serious overall threat in any region, but adequate counter-measures such as

  18. Biodiversity losses and conservation trade-offs: Assessing future urban growth scenarios for a North American trade corridor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villarreal, Miguel; Norman, Laura M.; Wallace, Cynthia S.A.; Boykin, Kenneth

    2013-01-01

    The Sonoran Desert and Apache Highlands ecoregions of North America are areas of exceptionally high plant and vertebrate biodiversity. However, much of the vertebrate biodiversity is supported by only a few vegetation types with limited distributions, some of which are increasingly threatened by changing land uses. We assessed the impacts of two future urban growth scenarios on biodiversity in a binational watershed in Arizona, USA and Sonora, Mexico. We quantified and mapped terrestrial vertebrate species richness using Wildlife Habitat Relation models and validated the results with data from National Park Service biological inventories. Future urban growth, based on historical trends, was projected to the year 2050 for 1) a “Current Trends” scenario and, 2) a “Megalopolis” scenario that represented a transnational growth corridor with open-space conservation attributes. Based on Current Trends, 45% of existing riparian woodland (267 of 451species), and 34% of semi-desert grasslands (215 of 451 species) will be lost, whereas, in the Megalopolis scenario, these types would decline by 44% and 24% respectively. Outcomes of the two models suggest a trade-off at the taxonomic class level: Current Trends would reduce and fragment mammal and herpetofauna habitat, while Megalopolis would result in loss of avian-rich riparian habitat.

  19. Safety assessment on the human intrusion scenarios of near surface disposal facility for low and very low level radioactive waste

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hong, Sung Wook; Park, Jin Baek [Korea Radioactive Waste Agency, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Park, Sang Ho [Chungnam National University, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-03-15

    The second-stage near surface disposal facility for low and very low level radioactive waste's permanent disposal is to be built. During the institutional control period, the inadvertent intrusion of the general public is limited. But after the institutional control period, the access to the general public is not restricted. Therefore human who has purpose of residence and resource exploration can intrude the disposal facility. In this case, radioactive effects to the intruder should be limited within regulatory dose limits. This study conducted the safety assessment of human intrusion on the second-stage surface disposal facility through drilling and post drilling scenario. Results of drilling and post drilling scenario were satisfied with regulatory dose limits. The result showed that post-drilling scenario was more significant than drilling scenario. According to the human intrusion time and behavior after the closure of the facility, dominant radionuclide contributing to the intruder was different. Sensitivity analyses on the parameters about the human behavior were also satisfied with regulatory dose limits. Especially, manual redistribution factor was the most sensitive parameter on exposure dose. A loading plan of spent filter waste and dry active waste was more effective than a loading plan of spent filter waste and other wastes for the radiological point of view. These results can be expected to provide both robustness and defense in depth for the development of safety case further.

  20. Assessing the impact of removal scenarios on population viability of a threatened, long-lived avian scavenger.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Margalida, Antoni; Colomer, Ma Àngels; Oro, Daniel; Arlettaz, Raphaël; Donázar, José A

    2015-01-01

    The removal of eggs or chicks from wild populations to create captive populations, reinforce free-ranging populations or reintroduce species into the wild is a restoration tool that requires an assessment of potential detrimental effects upon the donor population. This is an absolute prerequisite when wild donor populations are scarce and small. Here, we forecast the population trend of the largest European population of the bearded vulture (Gypaetus barbatus) over the next 30 years under different demographic and management scenarios (removal of eggs, chicks or fledglings). Projections derived from the combination of a PDP model (Population Dynamic P-system) and a Box-Behnken design would lead to a decline in 77% of all 57 scenarios analysed. Among the 13 scenarios predicting a population increase, only 4 seem realistic in terms of growth rate (0.04%-1.01%), at least if current age at first breeding and productivity would remain constant over time. Our simulations thus suggest that most extraction scenarios would have detrimental effects on the demography of the donor population. Release of captive-born young or removal of only the second hatched chick for subsequent captive rearing and translocation into the wild appear to represent much better supplementation and reintroduction options in this threatened species. PMID:26593059

  1. PRESSCA: A regional operative Early Warning System for landslides risk scenario assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ponziani, Francesco; Stelluti, Marco; Berni, Nicola; Brocca, Luca; Moramarco, Tommaso

    2013-04-01

    The Italian national alert system for the hydraulic and hydrogeological risk is ensured by the National Civil Protection Department, through the "Functional Centres" Network, together with scientific/technical Support Centres, named "Competence Centres". The role of the Functional Centres is to alert regional/national civil protection network, to manage the prediction and the monitoring phases, thus ensuring the flow of data for the management of the emergency. The Umbria regional alerting procedure is based on three increasing warning levels of criticality for 6 sub-areas (~1200 km²). Specifically, for each duration (from 1 to 48 hours), three criticality levels are assigned to the rainfall values corresponding to a recurrence interval of 2, 5, and 10 years. In order to improve confidence on the daily work for hydrogeological risk assessment and management, a simple and operational early warning system for the prediction of shallow landslide triggering on regional scale was implemented. The system is primarily based on rainfall thresholds, which represent the main element of evaluation for the early-warning procedures of the Italian Civil Protection system. Following previous studies highlighting that soil moisture conditions play a key role on landslide triggering, a continuous physically-based soil water balance model was implemented for the estimation of soil moisture conditions over the whole regional territory. In fact, a decreasing trend between the cumulated rainfall values over 24, 36 and 48 hours and the soil moisture conditions prior to past landslide events was observed. This trend provides an easy-to-use tool to dynamically adjust the operational rainfall thresholds with the soil moisture conditions simulated by the soil water balance model prior to rainfall events. The application of this procedure allowed decreasing the uncertainties tied to the application of the rainfall thresholds only. The system is actually operational in real-time and it was

  2. Actuarial assessment of future loss scenarios in the German insurance sector

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kubik, A.; Boehm, U.; Born, K.; Broecker, U.; Buechner, M.; Burghoff, O.; Donat, M.; Gerstengarbe, F. W.; Hattermann, F. F.; Held, H.; Kuecken, M.; Leckebusch, G. C.; Ludwig, P.; Nocke, T.; Oesterle, H.; Pardowitz, T.; Pinto, J. G.; Prahl, B. F.; Ulbrich, U.; Werner, P. C.

    2012-04-01

    The German Insurance Association (GDV) analyzed the impacts of climate change for the German insurance market. The work was conducted in cooperation with Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Freie Universität Berlin and University of Cologne. Different approaches and data sets were used to analyze the impacts of winter storm, hail and floods. High-resolution loss records to residential buildings in Germany were provided. These daily records are available on a fine spatial level of administrative districts from 1997-2007. For the period of 1984-2008 daily losses to residential buildings were derived from motor vehicle own damage insurance, which shows a surprisingly high correlation between building losses and motor vehicle losses caused by natural hazards. Loss functions from GDVs own flood risk model were made available to estimate flood losses. As climate change will progress the mean annual losses in the private residential building insurance might increase. Until 2100 losses due to winter storm could rise by more than 50%. The increase is mainly attributable to the intensification of individual exceptionally severe storms. Climate change will also result in an increase of flood losses. By the end of the century mean losses are expected to be twice as high - depending on the given scenario they could remain constant or triple. Conversely extreme events with high cumulative losses are expected to become significantly more frequent. Storms with a today's return period of 50 years might occur every 10 years at the end of the century. Floods, now returning every 50 years, could arise every 25 years. For the first time hailstorms have been analyzed. It was noticed, that in particular East Germany might be hit more frequently. Despite these findings, i.e. the cost of insurance against natural hazards might increase, the extent of such an increase in Germany should still remain within limits that can be mastered by the insurance companies. But we have to

  3. A study regarding the exposure scenario and key points for the risk assessment of the radioactive cesium contaminated soil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The main purpose of this study is to figure out the exposure scenario and clarify the key points for conducting the accurate risk assessment for the soil which is contaminated with a radioactive substance. As a first step, we figured out all conceivable exposure passages which are caused by the radioactive cesium contaminated soil and found that making consideration regarding the kind of exposed subjects, the length of time, the land usage and the distance from the ground zero etc are needed when conducting the accurate risk assessment for the soil which is contaminated with a radioactive substance. (author)

  4. Scenario based seismic hazard assessment and its application to the seismic verification of relevant buildings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romanelli, Fabio; Vaccari, Franco; Altin, Giorgio; Panza, Giuliano

    2016-04-01

    The procedure we developed, and applied to a few relevant cases, leads to the seismic verification of a building by: a) use of a scenario based neodeterministic approach (NDSHA) for the calculation of the seismic input, and b) control of the numerical modeling of an existing building, using free vibration measurements of the real structure. The key point of this approach is the strict collaboration, from the seismic input definition to the monitoring of the response of the building in the calculation phase, of the seismologist and the civil engineer. The vibrometry study allows the engineer to adjust the computational model in the direction suggested by the experimental result of a physical measurement. Once the model has been calibrated by vibrometric analysis, one can select in the design spectrum the proper range of periods of interest for the structure. Then, the realistic values of spectral acceleration, which include the appropriate amplification obtained through the modeling of a "scenario" input to be applied to the final model, can be selected. Generally, but not necessarily, the "scenario" spectra lead to higher accelerations than those deduced by taking the spectra from the national codes (i.e. NTC 2008, for Italy). The task of the verifier engineer is to act so that the solution of the verification is conservative and realistic. We show some examples of the application of the procedure to some relevant (e.g. schools) buildings of the Trieste Province. The adoption of the scenario input has given in most of the cases an increase of critical elements that have to be taken into account in the design of reinforcements. However, the higher cost associated with the increase of elements to reinforce is reasonable, especially considering the important reduction of the risk level.

  5. Cascading events triggering industrial accidents: quantitative assessment of NaTech and domino scenarios

    OpenAIRE

    Necci, Amos

    2015-01-01

    The so called cascading events, which lead to high-impact low-frequency scenarios are rising concern worldwide. A chain of events result in a major industrial accident with dreadful (and often unpredicted) consequences. Cascading events can be the result of the realization of an external threat, like a terrorist attack a natural disaster or of “domino effect”. During domino events the escalation of a primary accident is driven by the propagation of the primary event to nearby units, causin...

  6. Regional and urban down scaling of global climate scenarios for health impact assessments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    San Jose, R.; Perez, J. L.; Perez, L.; Gonzalez, R. M.; Pecci, J.; Garzon, A.; Palacios, M.

    2015-07-01

    In this contribution we have used global climate RCP IPCC scenarios to produce climate and air pollution maps at regional (25 km resolution) and urban scale with 200 m spatial resolution over Europe and five European cities in order to investigate the impact on meteorological variables and pollutant concentrations . We have used the very well known mesoscale meteorological model WRF-Chem (NOAA, US). We have used 2011 as control past year and two RCP scenarios from CCSM global climate model with 4.5 W/m2 and 8.5 W/m2 for 2030, 2050 and 2100 years. After running WRF-Chem model, using the boundary conditions provided by RCP scenarios with the emissions of 2011, we have performed a detailed down scaling process using CALMET diagnostic model to obtain a full 200 m spatial resolution map of five European cities (London, Antwerp, Madrid, Milan, and Helsinki). We will show the results and the health impacts for future RCP IPCC climate scenarios in comparison with the 2011 control year information for climate and health indicators. Finally, we have also investigated the impact of the aerosol effects in the short wave radiation mean value. Two simulations with the WRF-Chem model have been performed over Europe in 2010. A baseline simulation without any feedback effects and a second simulation including the direct effects affecting the solar radiation reaching the surface as well as the indirect aerosol effect with potential impacts on increasing or decreasing the precipitation rates. Aerosol effects produce an increase of incoming radiation over Atlantic Ocean (up to 70%) because the prescribed aerosol concentrations in the WRF-Chem without feedbacks is substantially higher than the aerosol concentrations produced when we activate the feedback effects. The decrease in solar radiation in the Sahara area (10%) is found to be produced because the prescribed aerosol concentration in the no feedback simulation is lower than when we activate the feedback effects. (Author)

  7. Seismic-Hazard Assessment for a Characteristic Earthquake Scenario: An Integrated Probabilistic–Deterministic Method

    OpenAIRE

    Convertito, V.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione OV, Napoli, Italia; Emolo, A.; Dipartimento di Scienze Fisiche Universita` degli Studi “Federico II” di Napoli; Zollo, A.; Dipartimento di Scienze Fisiche Universita` degli Studi “Federico II” di Napoli

    2006-01-01

    Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is classically performed through the Cornell approach by using a uniform earthquake distribution over the source area and a given magnitude range. This study aims at extending the PSHA approach to the case of a characteristic earthquake scenario associated with an active fault. The approach integrates PSHA with a high-frequency deterministic technique for the prediction of peak and spectral ground motion parameters in a characteristi...

  8. High estimates of supply constrained emissions scenarios for long-term climate risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The simulated effects of anthropogenic global warming have become important in many fields and most models agree that significant impacts are becoming unavoidable in the face of slow action. Improvements to model accuracy rely primarily on the refinement of parameter sensitivities and on plausible future carbon emissions trajectories. Carbon emissions are the leading cause of global warming, yet current considerations of future emissions do not consider structural limits to fossil fuel supply, invoking a wide range of uncertainty. Moreover, outdated assumptions regarding the future abundance of fossil energy could contribute to misleading projections of both economic growth and climate change vulnerability. Here we present an easily replicable mathematical model that considers fundamental supply-side constraints and demonstrate its use in a stochastic analysis to produce a theoretical upper limit to future emissions. The results show a significant reduction in prior uncertainty around projected long term emissions, and even assuming high estimates of all fossil fuel resources and high growth of unconventional production, cumulative emissions tend to align to the current medium emissions scenarios in the second half of this century. This significant finding provides much-needed guidance on developing relevant emissions scenarios for long term climate change impact studies. - Highlights: ► GHG emissions from conventional and unconventional fossil fuels modelled nationally. ► Assuming worst-case: large resource, high growth, rapid uptake of unconventional. ► Long-term cumulative emissions align well with the SRES medium emissions scenario. ► High emissions are unlikely to be sustained through the second half of this century. ► Model designed to be easily extended to test other scenarios e.g. energy shortages.

  9. Generating social impact scenarios, a key step in making technology assessment studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, M. V.

    1972-01-01

    The social impact scenario, a method used to trace the effects of new technological applications, is discussed. The research seeks to anticipate the secondary social impacts that arise from: (1) government or private programs that cope with major social problems like poverty, environmental pollution, or public safety; and (2) a concerted national effort to achieve a widely supported specific goal like landing a man on the moon or finding a cure for cancer.

  10. Regional and urban down scaling of global climate scenarios for health impact assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In this contribution we have used global climate RCP IPCC scenarios to produce climate and air pollution maps at regional (25 km resolution) and urban scale with 200 m spatial resolution over Europe and five European cities in order to investigate the impact on meteorological variables and pollutant concentrations . We have used the very well known mesoscale meteorological model WRF-Chem (NOAA, US). We have used 2011 as control past year and two RCP scenarios from CCSM global climate model with 4.5 W/m2 and 8.5 W/m2 for 2030, 2050 and 2100 years. After running WRF-Chem model, using the boundary conditions provided by RCP scenarios with the emissions of 2011, we have performed a detailed down scaling process using CALMET diagnostic model to obtain a full 200 m spatial resolution map of five European cities (London, Antwerp, Madrid, Milan, and Helsinki). We will show the results and the health impacts for future RCP IPCC climate scenarios in comparison with the 2011 control year information for climate and health indicators. Finally, we have also investigated the impact of the aerosol effects in the short wave radiation mean value. Two simulations with the WRF-Chem model have been performed over Europe in 2010. A baseline simulation without any feedback effects and a second simulation including the direct effects affecting the solar radiation reaching the surface as well as the indirect aerosol effect with potential impacts on increasing or decreasing the precipitation rates. Aerosol effects produce an increase of incoming radiation over Atlantic Ocean (up to 70%) because the prescribed aerosol concentrations in the WRF-Chem without feedbacks is substantially higher than the aerosol concentrations produced when we activate the feedback effects. The decrease in solar radiation in the Sahara area (10%) is found to be produced because the prescribed aerosol concentration in the no feedback simulation is lower than when we activate the feedback effects. (Author)

  11. Alternative Fuels for Transportation : A Sustainability Assessment of Technologies within an International Energy Agency Scenario

    OpenAIRE

    Ahmed, Shehzad; Conradt, Marcos H. K.; Pereira, Valeria De Fusco

    2009-01-01

    Transport sector is an essential driver of economic development and growth, and at the same time, one of the biggest contributors to climate change, responsible for almost a quarter of the global carbon dioxide emissions. The sector is 95 percent dependent on fossil fuels. International Energy Agency (IEA) scenarios present different mixes of fuels to decrease both dependence on fossil fuels and emissions, leading to a more sustainable future. The main alternative fuels proposed in the Blue m...

  12. Applying Cellular Automata for Simulating and Assessing Urban Growth Scenario Based in Nairobi, Kenya

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kenneth Mubea

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This research explores urban growth based scenarios for the city of Nairobi using a cellular automata urban growth model (UGM. African cities have experienced rapid urbanization over the last decade due to increased population growth and high economic activities. We used multi-temporal Landsat imageries for 1976, 1986, 2000 and 2010 to investigate urban land-use changes in Nairobi. Our UGM used data from urban land-use of 1986 and 2010, road data, slope data and exclusion layer. Monte-Carlo technique was used for model calibration and Multi Resolution Validation (MRV technique for validation. Simulation of urban land-use was done up to the year 2030 when Kenya plans to attain Vision 2030. Three scenarios were explored in the urban modelling process; unmanaged growth with no restriction on environmental areas, managed growth with moderate protection, and a managed growth with maximum protection on forest, agricultural areas, and urban green. Thus alternative scenario development using UGM is useful for planning purposes so as to ensure sustainable development is achieved. UGM provides quantitative, visual, spatial and temporal information which aid policy and decision makers can make informed decisions.

  13. Assessment of future agricultural conditions in southwestern Africa using fuzzy logic and high-resolution climate model scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Weinzierl, Thomas

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is expected to have a major impact on the arid savanna regions of southwestern Africa, such as the Okavango Basin. Precipitation is a major constraint for agriculture in countries like Namibia and Botswana and assessments of future crop growth conditions are in high demand. This GIS-based approach uses reanalysis data and climate model output for two scenarios and compares them to the precipitation requirements of the five most important crops grown in the region: maize, pearl millet, sorghum, cassava and cow pea. It also takes into account the dominant soil types, as plant growth is also limited by nutrient-poor soils with unfavorable physical and chemical properties. The two factors are then combined using a fuzzy logic algorithm. The assessment visualizes the expected shifts in suitable zones and identifies areas where farming without irrigation may experience a decline in yields or may even no longer be possible at the end of the 21st century. The results show that pearl millet is the most suitable crop in all scenarios while especially the cultivation of maize, sorghum and cow pea may be affected by a possible reduction of precipitation under the high-emission scenario.

  14. Vulnerabilities to agricultural production shocks: An extreme, plausible scenario for assessment of risk for the insurance sector

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tobias Lunt

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate risks pose a threat to the function of the global food system and therefore also a hazard to the global financial sector, the stability of governments, and the food security and health of the world’s population. This paper presents a method to assess plausible impacts of an agricultural production shock and potential materiality for global insurers. A hypothetical, near-term, plausible, extreme scenario was developed based upon modules of historical agricultural production shocks, linked under a warm phase El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO meteorological framework. The scenario included teleconnected floods and droughts in disparate agricultural production regions around the world, as well as plausible, extreme biotic shocks. In this scenario, global crop yield declines of 10% for maize, 11% for soy, 7% for wheat and 7% for rice result in quadrupled commodity prices and commodity stock fluctuations, civil unrest, significant negative humanitarian consequences and major financial losses worldwide. This work illustrates a need for the scientific community to partner across sectors and industries towards better-integrated global data, modeling and analytical capacities, to better respond to and prepare for concurrent agricultural failure. Governments, humanitarian organizations and the private sector collectively may recognize significant benefits from more systematic assessment of exposure to agricultural climate risk.

  15. Assessment of droughts at a continental scale under different climate change scenarios. Case study: La Plata Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sordo-Ward, Alvaro; Iglesias, Ana; Garrote, Luis; Bejarano, Maria Dolores; Asenjo, Victor; Bianucci, Paola

    2016-04-01

    In this study, we characterized and diagnosed the droughts across La Plata Basin for the reference (1961 - 2005) and future (2007 - 2040, 2041 - 2070 and 2071 - 2099) scenarios. La Plata Basin is located in the Centre-South of South America and comprises 3.174.229 km2 and five countries. Despite the significant impact of droughts on agriculture, cattle, water supply, natural water courses and wetlands, droughts are still difficult to predict in the region, both in time and space. We used the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) to characterize droughts based on Potential Evapotranspiration (PET) and Precipitation (P) at a monthly scale. PET and P were obtained for all 10 x 10 km-size cells within the basin by using the regional climatic model Eta, under the boundary conditions of the HadGEM2-ES model and the CO2 emissions scenario RCP 4.5. Cell to cell information was integrated into a sub-basin level in order to show and analyze the results. For each sub-basin, climate scenario, and temporal scale of SPEI (1, 3, 6 and 12 months), we identified the beginning of each drought, calculated its duration, magnitude, maximum and mean intensities, and the duration between drought events. Additionally, for each SPEI temporal scale and sub-basin, we described the spatial coverage of droughts for the temporal series of all climate scenarios. Spatially, we found a decrease of PET from North to South. Temporally, results showed a future increase of PET for the Paraguay river basin and upper Parana river basin but similar to present values for the remaining basin. Results showed that P will be similar in the future for the Paraguay river basin and upper Parana river basin, but will increase within the remaining basin. During the 2007 - 2040 scenario, we expect that the northern sub-basins suffer from several droughts while the southern ones have wetter climate with few short drought events. As we analyzed more distant future scenarios the wet climate

  16. LCA of beverage cups with special focus on the effect of end-of-life scenarios on the assessment results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Haekkinen, T.; Vares, S.

    2009-12-15

    Environmental impacts of a beverage cup concept were studied with help of life cycle assessment methodology with specific focus on end-of life scenarios. Carton based products were compared with polymer based products. The cartonbased cups were covered either with polyethene (PE) or polylactide (PLA). The polymer based cups were made of polyethylene terephthalate (PET). The paper studies the environmental impacts of production and alternative end-of-life scenarios and discusses the significance of the research frame related decisions. The focus is on global warming potential. The paper shows that significant improvements can be achieved through the choice of raw materials and optimal end-of-life. In order to avoid a situation where the results provoke more confusion than develop improved understanding, the LCA results should not be taken as fixed but the LCA should rather be seen as a tool which supports the manufacturer in the formulation of guidelines for product's end-of-life. (orig.)

  17. LONG-TERM GLOBAL WATER USE PROJECTIONS USING SIX SOCIOECONOMIC SCENARIOS IN AN INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT MODELING FRAMEWORK

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Edmonds, James A.; Clarke, Leon E.; Kyle, G. Page; Davies, Evan; Chaturvedi, Vaibhav; Wise, Marshall A.; Patel, Pralit L.; Eom, Jiyong; Calvin, Katherine V.; Moss, Richard H.; Kim, Son H.

    2014-01-19

    In this paper, we assess future water demands for the agricultural (irrigation and livestock), energy (electricity generation, primary energy production and processing), industrial (manufacturing and mining), and municipal sectors, by incorporating water demands into a technologically-detailed global integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, and climate change – the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). Base-year water demands—both gross withdrawals and net consumptive use—are assigned to specific modeled activities in a way that maximizes consistency between bottom-up estimates of water demand intensities of specific technologies and practices, and top-down regional and sectoral estimates of water use. The energy, industrial, and municipal sectors are represented in fourteen geopolitical regions, with the agricultural sector further disaggregated into as many as eighteen agro-ecological zones (AEZs) within each region. We assess future water demands representing six socioeconomic scenarios, with no constraints imposed by future water supplies. The scenarios observe increases in global water withdrawals from 3,578 km3 year-1 in 2005 to 5,987 – 8,374 km3 year-1 in 2050, and to 4,719 – 12,290 km3 year-1 in 2095. Comparing the projected total regional water withdrawals to the historical supply of renewable freshwater, the Middle East exhibits the highest levels of water scarcity throughout the century, followed by India; water scarcity increases over time in both of these regions. In contrast, water scarcity improves in some regions with large base-year electric sector withdrawals, such as the USA and Canada, due to capital stock turnover and the almost complete phase-out of once-through flow cooling systems. The scenarios indicate that: 1) water is likely a limiting factor in climate change mitigation policies, 2) many regions can be expected to increase reliance on non-renewable groundwater, water reuse, and desalinated water, but they also

  18. Situation and threat assessment for urban scenarios in a distributed adaptive system

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Broek, S.P. van den; Hanckmann, P.; Ditzel, M.

    2011-01-01

    An approach for decision support, consisting of situation and threat assessment is described, as part of a distributed and adaptive multi-sensor fusion engine. The decision support module combines the management and assessment components for situations and threats. The situation assessment determine

  19. Worst-Case Scenario Tsunami Hazard Assessment in Two Historically and Economically Important Districts in Eastern Sicily (Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armigliato, A.; Tinti, S.; Pagnoni, G.; Zaniboni, F.; Paparo, M. A.

    2015-12-01

    The portion of the eastern Sicily coastline (southern Italy), ranging from the southern part of the Catania Gulf (to the north) down to the southern-eastern end of the island, represents a very important geographical domain from the industrial, commercial, military, historical and cultural points of view. Here the two major cities of Augusta and Siracusa are found. In particular, the Augusta bay hosts one of the largest petrochemical poles in the Mediterranean, and Siracusa is listed among the UNESCO World Heritage Sites since 2005. This area was hit by at least seven tsunamis in the approximate time interval from 1600 BC to present, the most famous being the 365, 1169, 1693 and 1908 tsunamis. The choice of this area as one of the sites for the testing of innovative methods for tsunami hazard, vulnerability and risk assessment and reduction is then fully justified. This is being developed in the frame of the EU Project called ASTARTE - Assessment, STrategy And Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe (Grant 603839, 7th FP, ENV.2013.6.4-3). We assess the tsunami hazard for the Augusta-Siracusa area through the worst-case credible scenario technique, which can be schematically divided into the following steps: 1) Selection of five main source areas, both in the near- and in the far-field (Hyblaean-Malta escarpment, Messina Straits, Ionian subduction zone, Calabria offshore, western Hellenic Trench); 2) Choice of potential and credible tsunamigenic faults in each area: 38 faults were selected, with properly assigned magnitude, geometry and focal mechanism; 3) Computation of the maximum tsunami wave elevations along the eastern Sicily coast on a coarse grid (by means of the in-house code UBO-TSUFD) and extraction of the 9 scenarios that produce the largest effects in the target areas of Augusta and Siracusa; 4) For each of the 9 scenarios we run numerical UBO-TSUFD simulations over a set of five nested grids, with grid cells size decreasing from 3 km in the open Ionian

  20. Application of the WHO Growth Reference (2007) to Assess the Nutritional Status of Children in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YAN-PING LI; XIAO-QI HU; JING-ZHAO; XIAO-GUANG YANG; GUAN-SHENG MA

    2009-01-01

    Objective To assess the nutrition status of children and adolescents in China using the WHO growth reference (2007) in comparison with that defined by the International Obesity Task Force (IOTF) and the Working Group on Obesity in China (WGOC). Methods Overweight and obesity were defined by age-, sex-, specific BMI reference developed by WHO (2007), IOTF (2000), and WGOC (2004), respectively. Stunting and thinness were defined as height and BMI less than two standard deviations (SD) of the WHO growth reference (2007), respectively. Data of children and adolescents aged 5 to 19 years (n=54 857, 28 273 boys, 26 584 girls) from the 2002 China National Nutrition and Health Survey (CNNHS) were used in the study. Results The prevalence of overweight, obesity, stunting and thinness among Chinese children and adolescents aged 5-19 years was 5.0%, 1.2%, 13.8%, and 7.4%, respectively when the WHO growth reference (2007) was used, whereas the estimated absolute total number affected by these 4 conditions were 14.6, 3.7, 40.6, and 21.8 million, respectively. The prevalence of overweight and obesity was 18.1% in large cities, while the stunting prevalence was 25.1% in rural 4. Obesity prevalence assessed by the WHO growth reference was higher than that as assessed by the IOTF reference, and obesity prevalence assessed by the WGOC reference was lower than that as assessed by the IOTF reference. Conclusion The nutritional status of children and adolescents is not equal in different areas of China. Stunting is still the main health problem of the poor, while overweight and obesity are the main health problems in large cities.

  1. Assessing the environmental costs and benefits of plantations under future carbon pricing scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson, R. B.; Barrett, D. J.; Farley, K.; Guenther, A.; Jobbágy, E. G.; Murray, B. C.; McCarl, B. A.; Schlesinger, W. H.

    2004-12-01

    Carbon sequestration programs are gaining attention globally as a means to offset increasing fossil fuel emissions and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. We are examining scenarios of C sequestration in four regions of the world: the U.S., South America, China, and Australia. The analysis uses economic models to predict where the plantations will be grown and then categorizes the other biogeochemical changes that will likely occur. The goals of the project include: 1) Evaluating the assumptions behind C sequestration programs for plantations, including the importance of rotation rates, a full accounting of carbon costs (e.g., planting and site preparation), and how the C would be stored and safeguarded. 2) Examining the scale of the process needed to make a substantial contribution to offset fossil fuel emissions (see below). The scenario we have chosen to evaluate is one that addresses the consequences of storing 1 PgC yr-1 for 50 years. 3) Determining and summarizing the evidence for other biogeochemical changes that will likely occur. Some of the factors to be evaluated include soil acidification, changes in water fluxes and water-table dynamics, nutrient losses, changes in soil fauna and biodiversity, volatile organic carbon emissions, and erosion. 4) A final goal of the project is to make concrete recommendations for where plantations may be the most beneficial in terms of C storage and other environmental benefits, such as the amelioration of salinity and groundwater upwelling in Australia.

  2. Towards generalised reference condition models for environmental assessment: a case study on rivers in Atlantic Canada

    OpenAIRE

    Armanini, D. G.; Monk, W.A.; Carter, L; Cote, D.; Baird, D.J.

    2012-01-01

    Evaluation of the ecological status of river sites in Canada is supported by building models using the reference condition approach. However, geography, data scarcity and inter-operability constraints have frustrated attempts to monitor national-scale status and trends. This issue is particularly true in Atlantic Canada, where no ecological assessment system is currently available. Here, we present a reference condition model based on the River Invertebrate Prediction and Classification Syste...

  3. Tsunami scenarios and hazard assessment along the northern coast of Haiti

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gailler, A.; Calais, E.; Hébert, H.; Roy, C.; Okal, E.

    2015-12-01

    The northeastern Caribbean island arc, which materializes the boundary between the North American and Caribbean plates, is particularly exposed to large earthquakes and tsunamis. The low level of preparedness of a large part of its population and the lack of risk reduction provisions in public policies in many countries of the region put their population and economy at high risk in case of large telluric events. Here, we investigate the impact of three possible earthquake scenarios, consistent with the regional seismotectonic setting, on northern Haiti through inundation by tsunami waves. These scenarios simulate the effect of a M8.0 earthquake on the Septentrional strike-slip fault (possibly similar to the 1842 earthquake), a M8.1 earthquake on the offshore thrust fault system north of Haiti, and an earthquake rupturing a large portion of the offshore thrust fault system north of Haiti and the Dominican Republic. We calculate run-up heights along the northern coast of Haiti, in particular in the densely populated Cap Haitien. We find that the rupture of the offshore North Hispaniola thrust fault could result in wave heights up to 10 m with inundation up to 4 km inland, with only 10-15 min between ground shaking and the first wave arrivals. The city of Cap Haitien is particularly exposed, with potential flooding of most of the city and its suburbs, including the international airport. We also find that the historical reports available for the 1842 earthquake, when compared to our simulations, favor a rupture of the North Hispaniola thrust fault, although much uncertainty remains. If the 1842 earthquake did not rupture the Septentional fault offshore Haiti, then it is currently capable of at least a Mw7.7 earthquake, significantly larger than previously thought. The simulations presented here provide a basis for developing conservative maps of run-up heights that can be transferred, with added factors of safety, into practical implementation for tsunami preparedness

  4. Assessing nitrate leaching losses with simulation scenarios and model based fertiliser recommendations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michalczyk, A.; Kersebaum, K. C.; Hartmann, T.; Yue, S. C.; Chen, X. P.

    2012-04-01

    Excessive mineral nitrogen fertiliser application and irrigation in intensive agricultural cropping systems is seen as a major reason for low water and nitrogen use efficiencies in the North China Plain. High nitrogen fertiliser and irrigation water inputs do not only lead to higher production costs but also to decreasing ground water tables, nitrate accumulation in deeper soil layers below the root zone and water pollution. To evaluate the effects of improved management practices on environmental pollution risk, the HERMES model is used to simulate nitrate leaching losses. The HERMES model is a dynamic, process based crop model made for practical applications such as fertiliser recommendations. The model was tested and validated on two field studies in the south of the Hebei Province that lasted for about three years with a winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and summer maize (Zea mays L.) double cropping system. Biomass, grain yield, plant N uptake and soil water content were better simulated than mineral nitrogen in the soil. A model based nitrogen fertiliser recommendation was applied in the field for one wheat crop. The parallel model simulation showed satisfying results. Although there was no change in the amount of irrigation, the results indicated a possibility to reduce the fertiliser rate and thus nitrogen leaching even more than in the reduced treatment without reducing crop yields. Further more a simulation scenario with a model based fertiliser recommendation and a field capacity based irrigation was compared to farmers practice and reduced nitrogen treatment. The scenario results showed that the model recommendation together with the reduced irrigation has the highest potential to reduce nitrate leaching. The results also showed that flood irrigation as practiced by the farmers and its difficult to estimate amounts of water bears a big uncertainty for modelling.

  5. Environmental implications of United States coal exports: a comparative life cycle assessment of future power system scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bohnengel, Barrett; Patiño-Echeverri, Dalia; Bergerson, Joule

    2014-08-19

    Stricter emissions requirements on coal-fired power plants together with low natural gas prices have contributed to a recent decline in the use of coal for electricity generation in the United States. Faced with a shrinking domestic market, many coal companies are taking advantage of a growing coal export market. As a result, U.S. coal exports hit an all-time high in 2012, fueled largely by demand in Asia. This paper presents a comparative life cycle assessment of two scenarios: a baseline scenario in which coal continues to be burned domestically for power generation, and an export scenario in which coal is exported to Asia. For the coal export scenario we focus on the Morrow Pacific export project being planned in Oregon by Ambre Energy that would ship 8.8 million tons of Powder River Basin (PRB) coal annually to Asian markets via rail, river barge, and ocean vessel. Air emissions (SOx, NOx, PM10 and CO2e) results assuming that the exported coal is burned for electricity generation in South Korea are compared to those of a business as usual case in which Oregon and Washington's coal plants, Boardman and Centralia, are retrofitted to comply with EPA emissions standards and continue their coal consumption. Findings show that although the environmental impacts of shipping PRB coal to Asia are significant, the combination of superior energy efficiency among newer South Korean coal-fired power plants and lower emissions from U.S. replacement of coal with natural gas could lead to a greenhouse gas reduction of 21% in the case that imported PRB coal replaces other coal sources in this Asian country. If instead PRB coal were to replace natural gas or nuclear generation in South Korea, greenhouse gas emissions per unit of electricity generated would increase. Results are similar for other air emissions such as SOx, NOx and PM. This study provides a framework for comparing energy export scenarios and highlights the importance of complete life cycle assessment in

  6. Assessing groundwater pollution hazard changes under different socio-economic and environmental scenarios in an agricultural watershed.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lima, M Lourdes; Romanelli, Asunción; Massone, Héctor E

    2015-10-15

    This paper proposes a modeling approach for assessing changes in groundwater pollution hazard under two different socio-economic and environmental scenarios: The first one considers an exponential growth of agriculture land-use (Relegated Sustainability), while the other deals with regional economic growth, taking into account, the restrictions put on natural resources use (Sustainability Reforms). The recent (2011) and forecasted (2030) groundwater pollution hazard is evaluated based on hydrogeological parameters and, the impact of land-use changes in the groundwater system, coupling together a land-use change model (Dyna-CLUE) with a groundwater flow model (MODFLOW), as inputs to a decision system support (EMDS). The Dulce Stream Watershed (Pampa Plain, Argentina) was chosen to test the usefulness and utility of this proposed method. It includes a high level of agricultural activities, significant local extraction of groundwater resources for drinking water and irrigation and extensive available data regarding aquifer features. The Relegated Sustainability Scenario showed a negative change in the aquifer system, increasing (+20%; high-very high classes) the contribution to groundwater pollution hazard throughout the watershed. On the other hand, the Sustainability Reforms Scenario displayed more balanced land-use changes with a trend towards sustainability, therefore proposing a more acceptable change in the aquifer system for 2030 with a possible 2% increase (high-very high classes) in groundwater pollution hazard. Results in the recent scenario (2011) showed that 54% of Dulce Stream Watershed still shows a moderate to a very low contribution to groundwater pollution hazard (mainly in the lower area). Therefore, from the point of view of natural resource management, this is a positive aspect, offering possibilities for intervention in order to prevent deterioration and protect this aquifer system. However, since it is quite possible that this aquifer status (i

  7. Assessing groundwater pollution hazard changes under different socio-economic and environmental scenarios in an agricultural watershed.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lima, M Lourdes; Romanelli, Asunción; Massone, Héctor E

    2015-10-15

    This paper proposes a modeling approach for assessing changes in groundwater pollution hazard under two different socio-economic and environmental scenarios: The first one considers an exponential growth of agriculture land-use (Relegated Sustainability), while the other deals with regional economic growth, taking into account, the restrictions put on natural resources use (Sustainability Reforms). The recent (2011) and forecasted (2030) groundwater pollution hazard is evaluated based on hydrogeological parameters and, the impact of land-use changes in the groundwater system, coupling together a land-use change model (Dyna-CLUE) with a groundwater flow model (MODFLOW), as inputs to a decision system support (EMDS). The Dulce Stream Watershed (Pampa Plain, Argentina) was chosen to test the usefulness and utility of this proposed method. It includes a high level of agricultural activities, significant local extraction of groundwater resources for drinking water and irrigation and extensive available data regarding aquifer features. The Relegated Sustainability Scenario showed a negative change in the aquifer system, increasing (+20%; high-very high classes) the contribution to groundwater pollution hazard throughout the watershed. On the other hand, the Sustainability Reforms Scenario displayed more balanced land-use changes with a trend towards sustainability, therefore proposing a more acceptable change in the aquifer system for 2030 with a possible 2% increase (high-very high classes) in groundwater pollution hazard. Results in the recent scenario (2011) showed that 54% of Dulce Stream Watershed still shows a moderate to a very low contribution to groundwater pollution hazard (mainly in the lower area). Therefore, from the point of view of natural resource management, this is a positive aspect, offering possibilities for intervention in order to prevent deterioration and protect this aquifer system. However, since it is quite possible that this aquifer status (i

  8. Sourcebook for energy assessment. [Reference Energy Systems for 1972-2020

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Beller, M. (ed.)

    1975-12-01

    An analytical approach is presented that is broadly applicable to the assessment of energy technologies and policies. Using the Reference Energy System approach, it permits the examination of the economic, environmental, and resource implications resulting from the substitution of one fuel or technology for another. Included as tools for such analyses are the necessary data and methodology, as well as a set of Reference Energy Systems covering the 1972-2020 period to serve as baselines for the perturbation analyses of interest. 46 tables, 25 figures, 71 references.

  9. Quantitative assessment of consequences of natural events for the performance of waste disposal isolation system. On consequences of natural events in groundwater scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This year, first, on seismicity and faulting, uplift and erosion, climate change and human activity (intrusion) scenarios, while effects of those scenarios were primarily evaluated in reference cases last year, variant cases with another kind of patterns of models and parameters compared to reference cases, have been studied and set, and their effects have been analyzed and evaluated. Secondly, referring to the results of the above discussions, a preliminary study was made to evaluate the complex effect caused by combining natural events such as volcanism, seismicity and faulting, uplift and erosion and climate change, where discussions have been made on which combined scenario was more important and how to set the analysis framework. (author)

  10. Tsunami Scenarios and Hazard Assessment along the Northern Coast of Haiti

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gailler, A.

    2015-12-01

    The northeastern Caribbean island arc, which materializes the boundary between the North American and Caribbean plates, is particularly exposed to large earthquakes and tsunamis. The low level of preparedness of a large part of its population and the lack of risk reduction provisions in public policies in many countries of the region put their population and economy at high risk in case of large telluric events. Here we investigate the impact that three possible earthquake scenarios, all consistent with the regional seismotectonic setting, would have on northern Haiti through inundation by tsunami waves. These scenarios follow the conclusions of the 2013 IOC Meeting of Experts (IOC Workshop Report No. 255) and simulate the effect of a M8.0 earthquake on the Septentrional strike-slip fault (possibly similar to the 1842 earthquake), a M8.1 earthquake on the offshore thrust fault system north of Haiti, and an earthquake rupturing a large portion of the offshore thrust fault system north of Haiti and the Dominican Republic. We calculate run-up heights along the northern coast of Haiti, in particular in the densely populated, coastal city of Cap Haitien. We find that the rupture of the offshore North Hispaniola thrust fault could result in wave heights up to 10 m with inundation up to 4 km inland, with only 10-15 minutes between ground shaking and the first wave arrivals. The city of Cap Haitien is particularly exposed, with potential flooding of most of the city and its suburbs, including the international airport. We also find that the historical reports available for the 1842 earthquake, when compared to our simulations, favor a rupture of the North Hispaniola thrust fault, although much uncertainty remains. If the 1842 earthquake did not rupture the Septentional fault offshore Haiti, then it is currently capable of at least a Mw7.7 earthquake, significantly larger than previously thought. The simulations presented here provide a basis for developing conservative

  11. Life cycle assessment of integrated waste management systems for alternative legacy scenarios of the London Olympic Park

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Parkes, Olga, E-mail: o.parkes@ucl.ac.uk; Lettieri, Paola, E-mail: p.lettieri@ucl.ac.uk; Bogle, I. David L.

    2015-06-15

    Highlights: • Application of LCA in planning integrated waste management systems. • Environmental valuation of 3 legacy scenarios for the Olympic Park. • Hot-spot analysis highlights the importance of energy and materials recovery. • Most environmental savings are achieved through materials recycling. • Sensitivity analysis shows importance of waste composition and recycling rates. - Abstract: This paper presents the results of the life cycle assessment (LCA) of 10 integrated waste management systems (IWMSs) for 3 potential post-event site design scenarios of the London Olympic Park. The aim of the LCA study is to evaluate direct and indirect emissions resulting from various treatment options of municipal solid waste (MSW) annually generated on site together with avoided emissions resulting from energy, materials and nutrients recovery. IWMSs are modelled using GaBi v6.0 Product Sustainability software and results are presented based on the CML (v.Nov-10) characterisation method. The results show that IWMSs with advanced thermal treatment (ATT) and incineration with energy recovery have the lowest Global Warming Potential (GWP) than IWMSs where landfill is the primary waste treatment process. This is due to higher direct emissions and lower avoided emissions from the landfill process compared to the emissions from the thermal treatment processes. LCA results demonstrate that significant environmental savings are achieved through substitution of virgin materials with recycled ones. The results of the sensitivity analysis carried out for IWMS 1 shows that increasing recycling rate by 5%, 10% and 15% compared to the baseline scenario can reduce GWP by 8%, 17% and 25% respectively. Sensitivity analysis also shows how changes in waste composition affect the overall result of the system. The outcomes of such assessments provide decision-makers with fundamental information regarding the environmental impacts of different waste treatment options necessary for

  12. An integrated assessment of energy-water nexus at the state level in the United States: Projections and analyses under different scenarios through 2095

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, L.; Patel, P. L.; Hejazi, M. I.; Kyle, P.; Davies, E. G.; Zhou, Y.; Clarke, L.; Edmonds, J.

    2013-12-01

    Water withdrawals for thermoelectric power plants account for approximately half of the total water use in the United States. With growing electricity demands in the future and limited water supplies in many water-scarce states in the U.S., grasping the trade-off between energy and water requires an integrated modeling approach that can capture the interactions among energy, water availability, climate, technology, and economic factors at various scales. In this study, the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), a technologically-detailed integrated model of the economy, energy, agriculture and land use, water, and climate systems, with 14 geopolitical regions that are further dissaggregated into up to 18 agro-ecological zones, was extended to model the electricity and water systems at the state level in the U.S. More specifically, GCAM was employed to estimate future state-level electricity generation and demands, and the associated water withdrawals and consumptions under a set of six scenarios with extensive levels of details on generation fuel portfolio, cooling technology mix, and water use intensities. The state-level estimates were compared against available inventories where good agreement was achieved on national and regional levels. We then explored the electric-sector water use up to 2095, focusing on implications from: 1) socioeconomics and growing demands, 2) the adoption of climate mitigation policy (e.g., RCP4.5 W/m2 vs. a reference scenario), 3) the transition of cooling systems, 4) constraints on electricity trading across states (full trading vs. limited trading), and 5) the adoption of water saving technologies. Overall, the fast retirement of once-through cooling, together with the gradual transition from fossil fuels dominant to a mixture of different fuels, accelerate the decline of water withdrawals and correspondingly compensate consumptive water use. Results reveal that U.S. electricity generation expands significantly as population grows

  13. Assessing hydrologic impacts of future Land Change scenarios in the San Pedro River (U.S./Mexico)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kepner, W. G.; Burns, S.; Sidman, G.; Levick, L.; Goodrich, D. C.; Guertin, P.; Yee, W.; Scianni, M.

    2012-12-01

    An approach was developed to characterize the hydrologic impacts of urban expansion through time for the San Pedro River, a watershed of immense international importance that straddles the U.S./Mexico border. Future urban growth is a key driving force altering local and regional hydrology and is represented by decadal changes in housing density maps from 2010 to 2100 derived from the Integrated Climate and Land-Use Scenarios (ICLUS) database. ICLUS developed future housing density maps by adapting the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) social, economic, and demographic storylines to the conterminous United States. To characterize the hydrologic impacts of future growth, the housing density maps were reclassified to National Land Cover Database 2006 land cover classes and used to parameterize the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) using the Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment (AGWA) tool. The presentation will report 1) the methodology for adapting the ICLUS data for use in AGWA as an approach to evaluate basin-wide impacts of development on water-quantity and -quality, 2) initial results of the application of the methodology, and 3) discuss implications of the analysis.

  14. One laptop per child, local refurbishment or overseas donations? Sustainability assessment of computer supply scenarios for schools in Colombia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Streicher-Porte, Martin; Marthaler, Christian; Böni, Heinz; Schluep, Mathias; Camacho, Angel; Hilty, Lorenz M

    2009-08-01

    With the intention of bridging the 'digital divide' many programmes have been launched to provide computers for educational institutions, ranging from refurbishing second hand computers to delivering low cost new computers. The fast and economical provision of large quantities of equipment is one of the many challenges faced by such programmes. If an increase is to be achieved in the sustainability of computer supplies for schools, not only must equipment be provided, but also suitable training and maintenance delivered. Furthermore, appropriate recycling has to be ensured, so that end-of-life equipment can be dealt with properly. This study has evaluated the suitability of three computer supply scenarios to schools in Colombia: (i) 'Colombian refurbishment', -refurbishment of computers donated in Colombia, (ii) 'Overseas refurbishment', -import of computers which were donated and refurbished abroad, and (iii) 'XO Laptop', -purchase of low cost computers manufactured in Korea. The methods applied were: Material Flow Assessment, -to assess the quantities-, Life Cycle Assessment, -to assess the environmental impacts, and the application of the Multiple Attribute Utility Theory, -to analyse, evaluate and compare different scenarios. The most sustainable solution proved to be the local refurbishment of second hand computers of Colombian origin to an appropriate technical standard. The environmental impacts of such practices need to be evaluated carefully, as second hand appliances have to be maintained, require spare parts and sometimes use more energy than newer equipment. Providing schools with second hand computers from overseas and through programmes such as 'One Laptop Per Child' has the disadvantage that the potential for social improvements - such as creation of jobs and local industry involvement - is very low. PMID:19564072

  15. Fast Track NTR Systems Assessment for NASA's First Lunar Outpost Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borowski, Stanley K.; Alexander, Stephen W.

    1994-01-01

    Integrated systems and mission study results are presented which quantify the rationale and benefits for developing and using nuclear thermal rocket (NTR) technology for returning humans to the moon in the early 2000's. At present, the Exploration Program Office (ExPO) is considering chemical propulsion for its 'First Lunar Outpost' (FLO) mission, and NTR propulsion for the more demanding Mars missions to follow. The use of an NTR-based lunar transfer stage, capable of evolving to Mars mission applications, could result in an accelerated schedule, reduced cost approach to moon/Mars exploration. Lunar mission applications would also provide valuable operational experience and serve as a 'proving ground' for NTR engine and stage technologies. In terms of performance benefits, studies indicate that an expendable NTR stage powered by two 50 klbf engines can deliver approximately 96 metric tons (t) to trans-lunar injection (TLI) conditions for an initial mass in low earth orbit (IMLEO) of approximately 199 t compared to 250 t for a cryogenic chemical TLI stage. The NTR stage liquid hydrogen (LH2) tank has a 10 m diameter, 14.8 m length, and 68 t LH2 capacity. The NTR utilizes a 'graphite' fuel form consisting of coated UC2 particles in a graphite substrate, and has a specific impulse capability of approximately 870 s, and an engine thrust-to-weight ratio of approximately 4.8. The NTR stage and its piloted FLO lander has a total length of approximately 38 m and can be launched by a single Saturn V-derived heavy lift launch vehicle (HLLV) in the 200 to 250 t-class range. The paper summarizes NASA's First Lunar Outpost scenario, describes characteristics for representative engine/stage configurations, and examines the impact on engine selection and vehicle design resulting from a consideration of alternative NTR fuel forms and lunar mission profiles.

  16. Fast track NTR systems assessment for NASA's first lunar outpost scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borowski, Stanley K.; Alexander, Stephen W.

    1994-10-01

    Integrated systems and mission study results are presented which quantify the rationale and benefits for developing and using nuclear thermal rocket (NTR) technology for returning humans to the moon in the early 2000's. At present, the Exploration Program Office (ExPO) is considering chemical propulsion for its 'First Lunar Outpost' (FLO) mission, and NTR propulsion for the more demanding Mars missions to follow. The use of an NTR-based lunar transfer stage, capable of evolving to Mars mission applications, could result in an accelerated schedule, reduced cost approach to moon/Mars exploration. Lunar mission applications would also provide valuable operational experience and serve as a 'proving ground' for NTR engine and stage technologies. In terms of performance benefits, studies indicate that an expendable NTR stage powered by two 50 klbf engines can deliver approximately 96 metric tons (t) to trans-lunar injection (TLI) conditions for an initial mass in low earth orbit (IMLEO) of approximately 199 t compared to 250 t for a cryogenic chemical TLI stage. The NTR stage liquid hydrogen (LH2) tank has a 10 m diameter, 14.8 m length, and 68 t LH2 capacity. The NTR utilizes a 'graphite' fuel form consisting of coated UC2 particles in a graphite substrate, and has a specific impulse capability of approximately 870 s, and an engine thrust-to-weight ratio of approximately 4.8. The NTR stage and its piloted FLO lander has a total length of approximately 38 m and can be launched by a single Saturn V-derived heavy lift launch vehicle (HLLV) in the 200 to 250 t-class range. The paper summarizes NASA's First Lunar Outpost scenario, describes characteristics for representative engine/stage configurations, and examines the impact on engine selection and vehicle design resulting from a consideration of alternative NTR fuel forms and lunar mission profiles.

  17. An assessment of the radiological scenario around uranium mines in Singhbhum East district, Jharkhand, India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tripathi, R M; Sahoo, S K; Mohapatra, S; Patra, A C; Lenka, P; Dubey, J S; Jha, V N; Puranik, V D

    2012-07-01

    The present work deals with the prevalent radiological scenario around uranium-mining sites in the Singhbhum East district of Jharkhand state, India. The concentration of naturally occurring radioactive materials (NORMs) was estimated from 27 soil samples collected around three regions in the study area, namely Bagjata, Turamdih and Jaduguda. The mean activity concentrations of (238)U in Bagjata, Turamdih and Jaduguda regions were found to be 128.6, 95.7 and 49.2 Bq kg(-1), respectively. Similarly for (232)Th and (40)K the activity concentrations were found to be 57.3, 78.4, 68.9 and 530, 425 and 615 Bq kg(-1) in the Bagjata, Turamdih and Jaduguda regions, respectively, which are comparable with other reported values worldwide, except for some high values. The calculated gamma dose rate, obtained from the concentrations of (238)U, (232)Th and (40)K in the samples, was compared with the observed dose rate in air. A good correlation (0.96) was observed between the calculated and the observed gamma dose rate. The annual outdoor effective dose rate was estimated and the values falls between 0.04-0.3, 0.07-0.3 and 0.07-.14 mSv y(-1) with mean values of 0.14, 0.12 and 0.11 mSv y(-1) for the Bagjata, Turamdih and Jaduguda regions, respectively. The terrestrial dose rates in all the three regions are comparable with other reported values worldwide, except for a few high values in Greece, Rio Grande Do Norte (Brazil) and Kalpakkam (India). PMID:22155799

  18. A stochastic Forest Fire Model for future land cover scenarios assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Andrea, M.; Fiorucci, P.; Holmes, T. P.

    2010-10-01

    Land cover is affected by many factors including economic development, climate and natural disturbances such as wildfires. The ability to evaluate how fire regimes may alter future vegetation, and how future vegetation may alter fire regimes, would assist forest managers in planning management actions to be carried out in the face of anticipated socio-economic and climatic change. In this paper, we present a method for calibrating a cellular automata wildfire regime simulation model with actual data on land cover and wildfire size-frequency. The method is based on the observation that many forest fire regimes, in different forest types and regions, exhibit power law frequency-area distributions. The standard Drossel-Schwabl cellular automata Forest Fire Model (DS-FFM) produces simulations which reproduce this observed pattern. However, the standard model is simplistic in that it considers land cover to be binary - each cell either contains a tree or it is empty - and the model overestimates the frequency of large fires relative to actual landscapes. Our new model, the Modified Forest Fire Model (MFFM), addresses this limitation by incorporating information on actual land use and differentiating among various types of flammable vegetation. The MFFM simulation model was tested on forest types with Mediterranean and sub-tropical fire regimes. The results showed that the MFFM was able to reproduce structural fire regime parameters for these two regions. Further, the model was used to forecast future land cover. Future research will extend this model to refine the forecasts of future land cover and fire regime scenarios under climate, land use and socio-economic change.

  19. A stochastic Forest Fire Model for future land cover scenarios assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. D'Andrea

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Land cover is affected by many factors including economic development, climate and natural disturbances such as wildfires. The ability to evaluate how fire regimes may alter future vegetation, and how future vegetation may alter fire regimes, would assist forest managers in planning management actions to be carried out in the face of anticipated socio-economic and climatic change. In this paper, we present a method for calibrating a cellular automata wildfire regime simulation model with actual data on land cover and wildfire size-frequency. The method is based on the observation that many forest fire regimes, in different forest types and regions, exhibit power law frequency-area distributions. The standard Drossel-Schwabl cellular automata Forest Fire Model (DS-FFM produces simulations which reproduce this observed pattern. However, the standard model is simplistic in that it considers land cover to be binary – each cell either contains a tree or it is empty – and the model overestimates the frequency of large fires relative to actual landscapes. Our new model, the Modified Forest Fire Model (MFFM, addresses this limitation by incorporating information on actual land use and differentiating among various types of flammable vegetation. The MFFM simulation model was tested on forest types with Mediterranean and sub-tropical fire regimes. The results showed that the MFFM was able to reproduce structural fire regime parameters for these two regions. Further, the model was used to forecast future land cover. Future research will extend this model to refine the forecasts of future land cover and fire regime scenarios under climate, land use and socio-economic change.

  20. A Scenario Analysis on the Implementation of a Farm Animal Welfare Assessment System

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ingenbleek, P.T.M.; Blokhuis, H.J.; Butterworth, A.; Keeling, L.J.

    2011-01-01

    There have been important developments in the measurement of farm animal welfare in recent years. Measuring animal welfare is one thing, implementing a farm animal welfare assessment system another. The implementation of such a system occurs in an environment that is influenced by economic, politica

  1. Scenarios of long-term farm structural change for application in climate change impact assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mandryk, M.; Reidsma, P.; Ittersum, van M.K.

    2012-01-01

    Towards 2050, climate change is one of the possible drivers that will change the farming landscape, but market, policy and technological development may be at least equally important. In the last decade, many studies assessed impacts of climate change and specific adaptation strategies. However, ada

  2. Assessing Sediment Yield for Selected Watersheds in the Laurentian Great Lakes Basin Under Future Agricultural Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    In the Laurentian Great Lakes Basin (GLB), corn acreage has been expanding since 2005 in response to high demand for corn as an ethanol feedstock. This study integrated remote sensing-derived products and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) withing a GIS modeling environme...

  3. Women referred for occupational risk assessment in pregnancy have no increased risk of adverse obstetric outcomes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bidstrup, Signe Brøker; Kaerlev, Linda; Thulstrup, Ane Marie;

    2015-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: Our aim was to study the association between pregnant women's referral status for occupational risk assessment, and their risk of preterm delivery (... pregnant women referred to two Danish clinics of occupational medicine (Copenhagen and Aarhus) from 1984 to 2010 were compared with the referred women's 1,077 non-referred pregnancy outcomes and with the pregnancy outcomes of 345,467 gainfully employed women from the same geographical areas and time period....... Logistic regression was used to calculate odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Calculations were adjusted for the mother's age at delivery, parity, ethnicity, socioeconomic status, smoking, and in supplementary analyses for year of birth. RESULTS: Referred women gave birth to children...

  4. Assessment and Accountability in Reference Work. Part I: Requirements and Methodologies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitlatch, Jo Bell; Walsh, Anthony

    1992-01-01

    Includes three articles: the first presents rules and regulations from the "Federal Register" that focus on educational effectiveness in postsecondary institutions; the second discusses the appropriateness of various research methodologies for assessment and accountability of reference services; and the third examines data collection techniques…

  5. Measurement errors in dietary assessment using duplicate portions as reference method

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Trijsburg, L.E.

    2016-01-01

    Measurement errors in dietary assessment using duplicate portions as reference method Laura Trijsburg Background: As Food Frequency Questionnaires (FFQs) are subject to measurement error, associations between self-reported intake by FFQ and outcome measures should b

  6. Assessing uncertainty in reference intervals via tolerance intervals: application to a mixed model describing HIV infection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katki, Hormuzd A; Engels, Eric A; Rosenberg, Philip S

    2005-10-30

    We define the reference interval as the range between the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles of a random variable. We use reference intervals to compare characteristics of a marker of disease progression between affected populations. We use a tolerance interval to assess uncertainty in the reference interval. Unlike the tolerance interval, the estimated reference interval does not contains the true reference interval with specified confidence (or credibility). The tolerance interval is easy to understand, communicate and visualize. We derive estimates of the reference interval and its tolerance interval for markers defined by features of a linear mixed model. Examples considered are reference intervals for time trends in HIV viral load, and CD4 per cent, in HIV-infected haemophiliac children and homosexual men. We estimate the intervals with likelihood methods and also develop a Bayesian model in which the parameters are estimated via Markov-chain Monte Carlo. The Bayesian formulation naturally overcomes some important limitations of the likelihood model. PMID:16189804

  7. ANCRE scenarios for energy transition. Report 2013

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This report first gives an overview of the energy system by presenting the determining factors of energy demand and of CO2 emissions per sector (housing and office building, transport, industry, agriculture, forestry and biomass), by analysing energy systems and CO2 emissions (energy sources, energy vectors, networks and storage, energy and CO2 assessment for France), and by describing the guidelines of the scenarios proposed by ANCRE. The three main scenarios are characterized by a stronger sobriety, an electricity-based de-carbonation (with a variant based on nuclear and renewable energies), and diversified vectors. They are notably compared to a trend-based reference scenario. Results are discussed in terms of energy consumption (primary and final energy, consumption by the different sectors), of energy production and CO2 emissions. Scenarios are assessed in terms of economic, environmental and societal, political and strategic criteria. Some consequences for research topics and funding are identified

  8. Parameter variation and scenario analysis in impact assessments of emerging energy technologies

    OpenAIRE

    Breunig, Hanna Marie

    2015-01-01

    There is a global need for energy technologies that reduce the adverse impacts of societal progress and that address today's challenges without creating tomorrow's problems. Life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) can support technology developers in achieving these prerequisites of sustainability by providing a systems perspective. However, modeling the early-stage scale up and impacts of technology systems may lead to unreliable or incomplete results due to a lack of representative technical, s...

  9. On the Performance of Video Quality Assessment Metrics under Different Compression and Packet Loss Scenarios

    OpenAIRE

    Martínez-Rach, Miguel O.; Pablo Piñol; López, Otoniel M.; Manuel Perez Malumbres; José Oliver; Carlos Tavares Calafate

    2014-01-01

    When comparing the performance of video coding approaches, evaluating different commercial video encoders, or measuring the perceived video quality in a wireless environment, Rate/distortion analysis is commonly used, where distortion is usually measured in terms of PSNR values. However, PSNR does not always capture the distortion perceived by a human being. As a consequence, significant efforts have focused on defining an objective video quality metric that is able to assess quality in the s...

  10. Validation of no-reference image quality index for the assessment of digital mammographic images

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Oliveira, Helder C. R.; Barufaldi, Bruno; Borges, Lucas R.; Gabarda, Salvador; Bakic, Predrag R.; Maidment, Andrew D. A.; Schiabel, Homero; Vieira, Marcelo A. C.

    2016-03-01

    To ensure optimal clinical performance of digital mammography, it is necessary to obtain images with high spatial resolution and low noise, keeping radiation exposure as low as possible. These requirements directly affect the interpretation of radiologists. The quality of a digital image should be assessed using objective measurements. In general, these methods measure the similarity between a degraded image and an ideal image without degradation (ground-truth), used as a reference. These methods are called Full-Reference Image Quality Assessment (FR-IQA). However, for digital mammography, an image without degradation is not available in clinical practice; thus, an objective method to assess the quality of mammograms must be performed without reference. The purpose of this study is to present a Normalized Anisotropic Quality Index (NAQI), based on the Rényi entropy in the pseudo-Wigner domain, to assess mammography images in terms of spatial resolution and noise without any reference. The method was validated using synthetic images acquired through an anthropomorphic breast software phantom, and the clinical exposures on anthropomorphic breast physical phantoms and patient's mammograms. The results reported by this noreference index follow the same behavior as other well-established full-reference metrics, e.g., the peak signal-to-noise ratio (PSNR) and structural similarity index (SSIM). Reductions of 50% on the radiation dose in phantom images were translated as a decrease of 4dB on the PSNR, 25% on the SSIM and 33% on the NAQI, evidencing that the proposed metric is sensitive to the noise resulted from dose reduction. The clinical results showed that images reduced to 53% and 30% of the standard radiation dose reported reductions of 15% and 25% on the NAQI, respectively. Thus, this index may be used in clinical practice as an image quality indicator to improve the quality assurance programs in mammography; hence, the proposed method reduces the subjectivity

  11. Hydrologic and Water Quality Assessment of Bioenergy Scenarios for the Boone River Watershed in North Central Iowa, U.S.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gassman, P. W.

    2015-12-01

    he Boone River Watershed (BRW) is an intensively cropped region dominated by corn and soybean production that covers over 237,000 ha in north central Iowa. The BRW is reflective of both current Iowa cropping trends and elevated levels of nutrient pollution in streams. Nitrate losses are of particular concern, much of which escapes the cropland via subsurface tiles that drain the predominantly flat landscapes that characterize the watershed. Phosphorus export to stream systems in the BRW is also a problem of considerable concern. Questions have emerged as to the possible impacts of adopting cellulosic biofuel production systems in Iowa watersheds such as the BRW, which would be developed as function of corn stover removed after harvest or via the introduction of perennial biofuel crops such as switchgrass and miscanthus. In response, a modeling system been constructed for the watershed using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to address biofuel-related water quality and related issues. The specific version of SWAT (SWAT version 2012; Release 615) that is being used in the study features recent modifications made to the source code that corrected inaccuracies in previous codes in regards to simulating removal of corn stover and also the growth of switchgrass and miscanthus. In addition, updated crop growth parameters that more accurately represent the biomass production potential of switchgrass and miscanthus varieties being grown in the U.S. Corn Belt region are being used in this SWAT modeling system. The results of several scenarios are reported here that reflect future cellulosic biofuel scenarios based on 20%, 30% or 50% removal levels of corn stover or widespread adoption of switchgrass and/or miscanthus across much or all of the BRW. Both hydrologic and pollutant loss (sediment, nitrogen and phosphorus) losses are reported for all of the simulated scenarios.

  12. Development of Ground Reference GIS for Assessing Land Cover Maps of Northeast Yellowstone National Park

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spruce, Joe; Warner, Amanda; Terrie, Greg; Davis, Bruce

    2001-01-01

    GIS technology and ground reference data often play vital roles in assessing land cover maps derived from remotely sensed data. This poster illustrates these roles, using results from a study done in Northeast Yellowstone National Park. This area holds many forest, range, and wetland cover types of interest to park managers. Several recent studies have focused on this locale, including the NASA Earth Observations Commercial Applications Program (EOCAP) hyperspectral project performed by Yellowstone Ecosystems Studies (YES) on riparian and in-stream habitat mapping. This poster regards a spin-off to the EOCAP project in which YES and NASA's Earth Science Applications Directorate explored the potential for synergistic use of hyperspecral, synthetic aperture radar, and multiband thermal imagery in mapping land cover types. The project included development of a ground reference GIS for site-specific data needed to evaluate maps from remotely sensed imagery. Field survey data included reflectance of plant communities, native and exotic plant species, and forest health conditions. Researchers also collected GPS points, annotated aerial photographs, and took hand held photographs of reference sites. The use of ESRI, ERDAS, and ENVI software enabled reference data entry into a GIS for comparision to georeferenced imagery and thematic maps. The GIS-based ground reference data layers supported development and assessment of multiple maps from remotely sensed data sets acquired over the study area.

  13. Patient-Assessed Chronic Illness Care (PACIC) scenario in an Indian homeopathic hospital.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koley, Munmun; Saha, Subhranil; Ghosh, Shubhamoy; Nag, Goutam; Kundu, Monojit; Mondal, Ramkumar; Purkait, Rajib; Patra, Supratim; Ali, Seikh Swaif

    2016-01-01

    Homeopathy research has focused on chronic conditions; however, the extent to which current homeopathic care is compliant with the Chronic Care Model (CCM) has been sparsely shown. As the Bengali Patient-Assessed Chronic Illness Care (PACIC)-20 was not available, the English questionnaire was translated and evaluated in a government homeopathic hospital in West Bengal, India. The translation was done in six steps, and approved by an expert committee. Face validity was tested by 15 people for comprehension. Test/retest reliability (reproducibility) was tested on 30 patients with chronic conditions. Internal consistency was tested in 377 patients suffering from various chronic conditions. The questionnaire showed acceptable test/retest reliability [intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) 0.57-0.75; positive to strong positive correlations; p  0.05); however, monthly household income had a significant influence (p < 0.05) on the subscales except for "delivery system or practice design." Overall, chronic illness care appeared to be quite promising and CCM-compliant. The psychometric properties of the Bengali PACIC-20 were satisfactory, rendering it a valid and reliable instrument for assessing chronic illness care among the patients attending a homeopathic hospital. PMID:26933640

  14. Nuclear Computerized Library for Assessing Reactor Reliability (NUCLARR). Version 3.5, Quick Reference Guide

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gilbert, B.G.; Richards, R.E.; Reece, W.J.; Gertman, D.I.

    1992-10-01

    This Reference Guide contains instructions on how to install and use Version 3.5 of the NRC-sponsored Nuclear Computerized Library for Assessing Reactor Reliability (NUCLARR). The NUCLARR data management system is contained in compressed files on the floppy diskettes that accompany this Reference Guide. NUCLARR is comprised of hardware component failure data (HCFD) and human error probability (HEP) data, both of which are available via a user-friendly, menu driven retrieval system. The data may be saved to a file in a format compatible with IRRAS 3.0 and commercially available statistical packages, or used to formulate log-plots and reports of data retrieval and aggregation findings.

  15. Hydrological and water quality impact assessment of a Mediterranean limno-reservoir under climate change and land use management scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Molina Navarro, Eugenio; Trolle, Dennis; Martínez-Pérez, Silvia;

    2014-01-01

    Water scarcity and water pollution constitute a big challenge for water managers in the Mediterranean region today and will exacerbate in a projected future warmer world, making a holistic approach for water resources management at the catchment scale essential. We expanded the Soil and Water...... Assessment Tool (SWAT) model developed for a small Mediterranean catchment to quantify the potential effects of various climate and land use change scenarios on catchment hydrology as well as the trophic state of a new kind of waterbody, a limno-reservoir (Pareja Limno-reservoir), created for environmental...... and recreational purposes. We also checked for the possible synergistic effects of changes in climate and land use on water flow and nutrient exports from the catchment. Simulations showed a noticeable impact of climate change in the river flow regime and consequently the water level of the limno...

  16. An interdisciplinary scenario analysis to assess the water availability and water consumption in the Upper Ouémé catchment in Benin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Giertz

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an interdisciplinary scenario analysis to assess the influence of global and regional change on future water availability and water consumption in the Upper Ouémé catchment in central Benin. For the region three development scenarios were evolved. These scenarios are combined with climate change scenarios based on the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In the mo-delling approach the quantification of the land use/land cover change is performed by the cellular automata model CLUE-S. The future climate scenarios are computed with the regional climate model REMO driven by the global ECHAM model. Using this data different land use and climate change scenarios can be calculated with the conceptual hydrological model UHP-HRU to assess the effects of global changes on the future water availability in Benin. To analyse the future water availability also the water consumption has to be taken into account. Due to high population growth an increase in water need in the future is expected for the region. To calculate the future household water consumption data from a regional survey and demographic projections are used. Development of the water need for animal husbandry is also considered. The first test run of the modelling approach was performed for the development scenario 'business as usual' combined with the IPCC scenario B2 for the year 2025. This test demonstrates the applicability of the approach for an interdisciplinary scenario analysis. A continuous run from 2000–2025 will be simulated for different scenarios as soon as the input data concerning land use/land cover and climate are available.

  17. Hydrogeological modelling for assessment of radionuclide release scenarios for the repository system 2012

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Posiva Oy is responsible for implementing the programme for geological disposal of spent nuclear fuel produced by its owners Teollisuuden Voima Oyj (TVO) and Fortum Power and Heat Oy in Finland. Olkiluoto in Eurajoki has been selected as the primary site for the repository, subject to further detailed investigation which is currently focused on the construction of an underground rock characterisation and research facility (the ONKALO). An essential part of the assessment of long-term safety of a repository is the analysis of groundwater flow since it is the only means of transport of radionuclides to the biosphere (besides human intrusion). The analysis of long-term safety for a KBS-3 concept requires as input a description of details of the groundwater flow around and through components of the engineered barrier system as well as details of the groundwater pathway to the biosphere during the current temperate climate period, as well as indications of behaviour under future climate periods such as glacial conditions. This report describes the groundwater flow modelling study performed to provide some of the necessary inputs required by Safety Assessment (i.e. radionuclide transport analysis). Underlying this study is the understanding of the site developed during the site investigations as summarised in the site descriptive model (SDM), and in particular the description of Olkiluoto Hydrogeological DFN model (Hydro-DFN). The main focus of this study is the temperate climate period, i.e. the evolution over the next 10,000 years, but the hydrogeological situation under various glacial climate conditions is also evaluated. Primary outputs of the study are repository performance measures relating to: the distributions of groundwater flow around the deposition holes; deposition tunnels and through the EDZ; flow-related transport resistance along groundwater pathways from the repository to the surface; and their the exit locations. Other analyses consider the

  18. Assessment of future scenarios for wind erosion sensitivity changes based on ALADIN and REMO regional climate model simulation data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mezősi, Gábor; Blanka, Viktória; Bata, Teodóra; Ladányi, Zsuzsanna; Kemény, Gábor; Meyer, Burghard C.

    2016-07-01

    The changes in rate and pattern of wind erosion sensitivity due to climate change were investigated for 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 compared to the reference period (1961-1990) in Hungary. The sensitivities of the main influencing factors (soil texture, vegetation cover and climate factor) were evaluated by fuzzy method and a combined wind erosion sensitivity map was compiled. The climate factor, as the driving factor of the changes, was assessed based on observed data for the reference period, while REMO and ALADIN regional climate model simulation data for the future periods. The changes in wind erosion sensitivity were evaluated on potentially affected agricultural land use types, and hot spot areas were allocated. Based on the results, 5-6% of the total agricultural areas were high sensitive areas in the reference period. In the 21st century slight or moderate changes of wind erosion sensitivity can be expected, and mostly `pastures', `complex cultivation patterns', and `land principally occupied by agriculture with significant areas of natural vegetation' are affected. The applied combination of multi-indicator approach and fuzzy analysis provides novelty in the field of land sensitivity assessment. The method is suitable for regional scale analysis of wind erosion sensitivity changes and supports regional planning by allocating priority areas where changes in agro-technics or land use have to be considered.

  19. Development of scenarios within a systematic assessment framework for the Drigg post-closure safety case

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Drigg site, owned and operated by BNFL, is the UK's principal site for the disposal of low level radioactive waste. Disposals at Drigg are carried out under the terms of an authorization granted under the Radioactive Substances Act. This authorization is subject to periodic re-examination by the Environment Agency, with the next formal review to be conducted in 2002. It is planned that an interim safety case, including a description of the approach and illustrative calculations, should be presented in March 2000. The UK authorizing agencies have published principles and requirements for disposal facilities in their Guidance on Requirements for Authorization (GRA). The GRA is explicit in its assertion that the numerical evaluation of risk alone cannot provide a sufficient basis to assure safety. Nevertheless, the central importance of potential long-term radiological impacts to the overall safety case for a disposal facility means that particular emphasis is inevitably attached to the derivation of quantitative measures of long-term safety performance, notably annual individual risk from exposure to radiation. Moreover, the expectation is that a comprehensive safety case should comprise an evaluation (although not necessarily a detailed computation) of all potential sources of radiological risk, rather than simply addressing in isolation particular areas of uncertainty or technical concern. The uncertainties inherent in quantitative analyses of long-term performance mean that results are to be considered as representative indicators of safety, rather than definitive predictions of future radiological impact. The Post-Closure Radiological Assessment (PCRA) being developed for Drigg needs to deliver a comprehensive, quantitative appraisal of long-term safety performance, while also recognizing the intrinsic limitations of the calcination on which it is based. The overall objective is to present a set of calculations that is sufficiently representative to provide

  20. Assessment of vulnerability to future marine processes of urbanized coastal environments by a GIS-based approach: expected scenario in the metropolitan area of Bari (Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mancini, F.; Ceppi, C.; Christopulos, V.

    2013-12-01

    Literature concerning the risk assessment procedures after extreme meteorological events is generally focused on the establishing of relationship between actual severe weather conditions and impact detected over the involved zones. Such an events are classified on the basis of measurements and observation able to assess the magnitude of phenomena or on the basis of related effects on the affected area, the latter being deeply connected with the overall physical vulnerability. However such assessment almost never do consider scenario about expected extreme event and possible pattern of urbanization at the time of impact and nor the spatial and temporal uncertainty of phenomena are taken into account. The drawn of future scenario about coastal vulnerability to marine processes is therefore difficult. This work focuses the study case of the Metropoli Terra di Bari (metropolitan area of Bari, Apulia, Italy) where a coastal vulnerability analysis due to climate changes expected on the basis of expert opinions coming from the scientific community was carried out. Several possible impacts on the coastal environments were considered, in particular sea level rise inundation, flooding due to storm surge and coastal erosion. For such a purpose the methodology base on SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenario) produced by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) was adopted after a regionalization procedure as carried out by Verburgh and others (2006) at the European scale. The open source software SLEUTH, base on the cellular automate principle, was used and the reliability of obtained scenario verified through the Monte Carlo method. Once these scenario were produced, a GIS-based multicriteria methodology was implemented to evaluate the vulnerability of the urbanized coastal area of interest. Several vulnerability maps related are therefore available for different scenario able to consider the degree of hazards and potential development of the typology and extent

  1. A new scenario framework for Climate Change Research: Scenario matrix architecture

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Van Vuuren, Detlef; Kriegler, Elmar; O' Neill, Brian; Ebi, Kristie L.; Riahi, Keywan; Carter, Tim; Edmonds, James A.; Hallegatte, Stephane; Kram, Tom; Mathur, Ritu; Winkler, Harald

    2014-02-01

    In this paper, we present the scenario matrix architecture as part of the new scenario framework for climate change research. The matrix architecture focuses on a key question of current climate research, namely the identification of trade-offs and synergies (in terms of risks, costs and other consequences) of different adaptation and mitigation strategies. The framework has two main axes: 1) the level of forcing (as represented by the RCPs) and 2) different socio-economic reference pathways. The matrix can be used as a tool to guide new scenario development and analytical analysis. It can also be used as a heuristic tool for classifying new and existing scenarios for assessment. Key elements of the architecture, in particular the shared socio-economic reference pathways and the shared policy assumptions, are elaborated in other papers in this special issue.

  2. Combining Reference Class Forecasting with Overconfidence Theory for Better Risk Assessment of Transport Infrastructure Investments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Leleur, Steen; Salling, Kim Bang; Pilkauskiene, Inga;

    2015-01-01

    Assessing the risks of infrastructure investments has become a topic of growing importance. This is due to a sad record of implemented projects with cost overruns and demand shortfalls leading, in retrospect, to the finding that there is a need for better risk assessment of transport infrastructure...... investments. In the last decade progress has been made by dealing with this situation known as planners’ optimism bias. Especially attention can be drawn to the use of reference class forecasting that has led to adjustment factors that, when used on the estimates of costs and demand, lead to cost...... possible reference pool of projects and second to apply overconfidence theory (OT) to interpret expert judgments (EJ) about costs and demand as relating to a specific project up for examination. By combining flexible use of RCF with EJ based on OT interpretation it is argued that the current adjustment...

  3. The Role of Reference Condition in Biological Assessment and Criteria: An EPA Guidance Document

    Science.gov (United States)

    Southerland, M. T.; Larsen, D. P.; Davis, W. S.

    2005-05-01

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency is preparing a document to provide States, Tribes, and other practitioners with guidelines on the reference condition concept and how to apply it in their water management programs, particularly for assessing the condition of aquatic resources. These guidelines are intended to broaden the implementation of biological monitoring and assessment, to increase the consistency among States and Tribes, and to improve the success of individual programs. Establishing and using the reference condition concept appropriately is critical to implementing biocriteria and tiered aquatic life uses to protect and restore water resource quality. This document will cover the following topics: a description of the concept of reference condition and related concepts (including minimally disturbed, least disturbed, and attainable conditions); methods for characterizing reference and related conditions; the role of water body classification to partition natural variability; setting thresholds to determine achievement of a target condition; and application of the concept in heavily modified regions (e.g., urban landscapes; agricultural regions) and waterbodies (reservoirs, regulated rivers). A section on frequently asked questions and answers is included. Throughout the document, examples are drawn from existing State and Tribal programs to illustrate specific applications that are consistent with the guidelines.

  4. TransRate: reference free quality assessment of de novo transcriptome assemblies.

    OpenAIRE

    Smith-Unna, R; Boursnell, C; Patro, R; Hibberd, JM; Kelly, S

    2016-01-01

    TransRate is a tool for reference-free quality assessment of de novo transcriptome assemblies. Using only the sequenced reads and the assembly as input, we show multiple common artifacts of de novo transcriptome assembly can be readily detected. These include chimeras, structural errors, incomplete assembly and base errors. TransRate evaluates these errors to produce a diagnostic quality score for each contig and these contig scores are integrated to evaluate whole assemblies. Thus TransRate ...

  5. Women referred for occupational risk assessment in pregnancy have no increased risk of adverse obstetric outcomes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bidstrup, Signe Brøker; Kaerlev, Linda; Thulstrup, Ane Marie;

    2015-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: Our aim was to study the association between pregnant women's referral status for occupational risk assessment, and their risk of preterm delivery (.... Logistic regression was used to calculate odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Calculations were adjusted for the mother's age at delivery, parity, ethnicity, socioeconomic status, smoking, and in supplementary analyses for year of birth. RESULTS: Referred women gave birth to children....../or that the occupational risk assessment and counselling of pregnant women are preventing these selected adverse pregnancy outcomes. FUNDING: The Research Unit at Department of Occupational and Environmental Medicine at Bispebjerg Hospital supported the study financially. TRIAL REGISTRATION: not relevant. The study...

  6. Women referred for occupational risk assessment in pregnancy have no increased risk of adverse obstetric outcomes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bidstrup, Signe Brøker; Kaerlev, Linda; Thulstrup, Ane Marie;

    2015-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: Our aim was to study the association between pregnant women's referral status for occupational risk assessment, and their risk of preterm delivery (.../or that the occupational risk assessment and counselling of pregnant women are preventing these selected adverse pregnancy outcomes. FUNDING: The Research Unit at Department of Occupational and Environmental Medicine at Bispebjerg Hospital supported the study financially. TRIAL REGISTRATION: not relevant. The study....... Logistic regression was used to calculate odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Calculations were adjusted for the mother's age at delivery, parity, ethnicity, socioeconomic status, smoking, and in supplementary analyses for year of birth. RESULTS: Referred women gave birth to children...

  7. Reference methods and materials. A programme of support for regional and global marine pollution assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This document describes a programme of comprehensive support for regional and global marine pollution assessments developed by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) in cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) and with the collaboration of a number of other United Nations Specialized agencies including the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), the World Health Organisation (WHO) and the International Maritime Organisation (IMO). Two of the principle components of this programme, Reference Methods and Reference materials are given special attention in this document and a full Reference Method catalogue is included, giving details of over 80 methods currently available or in an advanced stage of preparation and testing. It is important that these methods are seen as a functional component of a much wider strategy necessary for assuring good quality and intercomparable data for regional and global pollution monitoring and the user is encouraged to read this document carefully before employing Reference Methods and Reference Materials in his/her laboratory. 3 figs

  8. Assessment of Suitable Reference Genes for Quantitative Gene Expression Studies in Melon Fruits.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kong, Qiusheng; Gao, Lingyun; Cao, Lei; Liu, Yue; Saba, Hameed; Huang, Yuan; Bie, Zhilong

    2016-01-01

    Melon (Cucumis melo L.) is an attractive model plant for investigating fruit development because of its morphological, physiological, and biochemical diversity. Quantification of gene expression by quantitative reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR) with stably expressed reference genes for normalization can effectively elucidate the biological functions of genes that regulate fruit development. However, the reference genes for data normalization in melon fruits have not yet been systematically validated. This study aims to assess the suitability of 20 genes for their potential use as reference genes in melon fruits. Expression variations of these genes were measured in 24 samples that represented different developmental stages of fertilized and parthenocarpic melon fruits by qRT-PCR analysis. GeNorm identified ribosomal protein L (CmRPL) and cytosolic ribosomal protein S15 (CmRPS15) as the best pair of reference genes, and as many as five genes including CmRPL, CmRPS15, TIP41-like family protein (CmTIP41), cyclophilin ROC7 (CmCYP7), and ADP ribosylation factor 1 (CmADP) were required for more reliable normalization. NormFinder ranked CmRPS15 as the best single reference gene, and RAN GTPase gene family (CmRAN) and TATA-box binding protein (CmTBP2) as the best combination of reference genes in melon fruits. Their effectiveness was further validated by parallel analyses on the activities of soluble acid invertase and sucrose phosphate synthase, and expression profiles of their respective encoding genes CmAIN2 and CmSPS1, as well as sucrose contents during melon fruit ripening. The validated reference genes will help to improve the accuracy of gene expression studies in melon fruits.

  9. Assessment of Suitable Reference Genes for Quantitative Gene Expression Studies in Melon Fruits

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kong, Qiusheng; Gao, Lingyun; Cao, Lei; Liu, Yue; Saba, Hameed; Huang, Yuan; Bie, Zhilong

    2016-01-01

    Melon (Cucumis melo L.) is an attractive model plant for investigating fruit development because of its morphological, physiological, and biochemical diversity. Quantification of gene expression by quantitative reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR) with stably expressed reference genes for normalization can effectively elucidate the biological functions of genes that regulate fruit development. However, the reference genes for data normalization in melon fruits have not yet been systematically validated. This study aims to assess the suitability of 20 genes for their potential use as reference genes in melon fruits. Expression variations of these genes were measured in 24 samples that represented different developmental stages of fertilized and parthenocarpic melon fruits by qRT-PCR analysis. GeNorm identified ribosomal protein L (CmRPL) and cytosolic ribosomal protein S15 (CmRPS15) as the best pair of reference genes, and as many as five genes including CmRPL, CmRPS15, TIP41-like family protein (CmTIP41), cyclophilin ROC7 (CmCYP7), and ADP ribosylation factor 1 (CmADP) were required for more reliable normalization. NormFinder ranked CmRPS15 as the best single reference gene, and RAN GTPase gene family (CmRAN) and TATA-box binding protein (CmTBP2) as the best combination of reference genes in melon fruits. Their effectiveness was further validated by parallel analyses on the activities of soluble acid invertase and sucrose phosphate synthase, and expression profiles of their respective encoding genes CmAIN2 and CmSPS1, as well as sucrose contents during melon fruit ripening. The validated reference genes will help to improve the accuracy of gene expression studies in melon fruits. PMID:27536316

  10. A statistical assessment of differences and equivalences between genetically modified and reference plant varieties

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amzal Billy

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Safety assessment of genetically modified organisms is currently often performed by comparative evaluation. However, natural variation of plant characteristics between commercial varieties is usually not considered explicitly in the statistical computations underlying the assessment. Results Statistical methods are described for the assessment of the difference between a genetically modified (GM plant variety and a conventional non-GM counterpart, and for the assessment of the equivalence between the GM variety and a group of reference plant varieties which have a history of safe use. It is proposed to present the results of both difference and equivalence testing for all relevant plant characteristics simultaneously in one or a few graphs, as an aid for further interpretation in safety assessment. A procedure is suggested to derive equivalence limits from the observed results for the reference plant varieties using a specific implementation of the linear mixed model. Three different equivalence tests are defined to classify any result in one of four equivalence classes. The performance of the proposed methods is investigated by a simulation study, and the methods are illustrated on compositional data from a field study on maize grain. Conclusions A clear distinction of practical relevance is shown between difference and equivalence testing. The proposed tests are shown to have appropriate performance characteristics by simulation, and the proposed simultaneous graphical representation of results was found to be helpful for the interpretation of results from a practical field trial data set.

  11. Integrating experimental and numerical methods for a scenario-based quantitative assessment of subsurface energy storage options

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kabuth, Alina; Dahmke, Andreas; Hagrey, Said Attia al; Berta, Márton; Dörr, Cordula; Koproch, Nicolas; Köber, Ralf; Köhn, Daniel; Nolde, Michael; Tilmann Pfeiffer, Wolf; Popp, Steffi; Schwanebeck, Malte; Bauer, Sebastian

    2016-04-01

    Within the framework of the transition to renewable energy sources ("Energiewende"), the German government defined the target of producing 60 % of the final energy consumption from renewable energy sources by the year 2050. However, renewable energies are subject to natural fluctuations. Energy storage can help to buffer the resulting time shifts between production and demand. Subsurface geological structures provide large potential capacities for energy stored in the form of heat or gas on daily to seasonal time scales. In order to explore this potential sustainably, the possible induced effects of energy storage operations have to be quantified for both specified normal operation and events of failure. The ANGUS+ project therefore integrates experimental laboratory studies with numerical approaches to assess subsurface energy storage scenarios and monitoring methods. Subsurface storage options for gas, i.e. hydrogen, synthetic methane and compressed air in salt caverns or porous structures, as well as subsurface heat storage are investigated with respect to site prerequisites, storage dimensions, induced effects, monitoring methods and integration into spatial planning schemes. The conceptual interdisciplinary approach of the ANGUS+ project towards the integration of subsurface energy storage into a sustainable subsurface planning scheme is presented here, and this approach is then demonstrated using the examples of two selected energy storage options: Firstly, the option of seasonal heat storage in a shallow aquifer is presented. Coupled thermal and hydraulic processes induced by periodic heat injection and extraction were simulated in the open-source numerical modelling package OpenGeoSys. Situations of specified normal operation as well as cases of failure in operational storage with leaking heat transfer fluid are considered. Bench-scale experiments provided parameterisations of temperature dependent changes in shallow groundwater hydrogeochemistry. As a

  12. Rail crash demonstration scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The paper describes the manner in which the rail crash scenario was selected for public demonstration. A simplified risk assessment led to the short listing of three contender scenarios involving a drop from a high level, a crash into an abutment and the crash of a train into a stationary flask. Predictive work led to the final selection of the train crash. (author)

  13. A broad assessment of factors determining Culicoides imicola abundance: modelling the present and forecasting its future in climate change scenarios.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pelayo Acevedo

    Full Text Available Bluetongue (BT is still present in Europe and the introduction of new serotypes from endemic areas in the African continent is a possible threat. Culicoides imicola remains one of the most relevant BT vectors in Spain and research on the environmental determinants driving its life cycle is key to preventing and controlling BT. Our aim was to improve our understanding of the biotic and abiotic determinants of C. imicola by modelling its present abundance, studying the spatial pattern of predicted abundance in relation to BT outbreaks, and investigating how the predicted current distribution and abundance patterns might change under future (2011-2040 scenarios of climate change according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. C. imicola abundance data from the bluetongue national surveillance programme were modelled with spatial, topoclimatic, host and soil factors. The influence of these factors was further assessed by variation partitioning procedures. The predicted abundance of C. imicola was also projected to a future period. Variation partitioning demonstrated that the pure effect of host and topoclimate factors explained a high percentage (>80% of the variation. The pure effect of soil followed in importance in explaining the abundance of C. imicola. A close link was confirmed between C. imicola abundance and BT outbreaks. To the best of our knowledge, this study is the first to consider wild and domestic hosts in predictive modelling for an arthropod vector. The main findings regarding the near future show that there is no evidence to suggest that there will be an important increase in the distribution range of C. imicola; this contrasts with an expected increase in abundance in the areas where it is already present in mainland Spain. What may be expected regarding the future scenario for orbiviruses in mainland Spain, is that higher predicted C. imicola abundance may significantly change the rate of transmission of orbiviruses.

  14. The assessment of natural flood management measures as a climate change adaptation option through land use scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iacob, Oana; Rowan, John; Brown, Iain; Ellis, Chris

    2014-05-01

    Climate change is one of the most pressing issues facing civil society. Greater variability and more frequent extremes of temperature and precipitation will result in increased flood risk and corresponding social, economic and environmental impacts. Complementing more traditional structurally-based engineering interventions an important additional adaptation strategy is through natural flood management (NFM) measures utilising natural soil, wetland and groundwater storage at the catchment scale to attenuate runoff generation and downstream flooding. Such schemes have multiple co-benefits including improved water quality, biodiversity and amenity and so contribute to greater resilience to uncertain climate futures. As a case-study of a more integrated approach to land use planning we here consider the policy target of the Scottish Government to expand woodland in Scotland by 100,000 ha by 2025 from the current 3 000 ha/year. In this paper we examine runoff response under different woodland expansion scenarios using climate projections obtained from the UK Climate Projections (UKCP09). Woodland creation has recognised potential as a NFM measure, but locating this new planting is constrained by physical and cultural constraints. Land use choices in the future will also strongly reflect emergent socio-economic contexts, here assessed through scenario analysis. The distributed hydrological model WaSiM-ETH was utilised for the analysis using the case-study of the Tarland catchment, a tributary of the River Dee. Terrain data were obtained on a 50 m grid and the model calibrated using meteorological and river gauge data from 2005 to 2007 following a manual and an automatic calibration process. This novel approach highlights that land use change should be carefully managed for planned benefits and to avoid unintended consequences, such as changing the timing of tributary flood responses. Whilst woodland expansion may only provide modest gains in flood reductions the co

  15. Scenario uncertainties in estimating direct land-use change emissions in biomass-to-energy life cycle assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The use of biomass for energy production has increasingly been encouraged in the United States, in part motivated by the potential to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions relative to fossil fuels. However, the GHG-intensity of biomass-derived energy is highly dependent on how the biomass is obtained and used. We explore scenario uncertainty in GHG estimates in the Calculating Uncertainty in Biomass Emissions (CUBE) model and find that direct land-use change emissions that result during the biomass production often dominate the total “farm-to-hopper” GHGs. CUBE represents each land-use change decision as a conversion of land from one of four specified baseline ecosystem to produce one of seven feedstock crops, both distinct by geographic region, and then determines the implied changes in soil organic carbon, root carbon, and above-ground biomass. CUBE therefore synthesizes and organizes the existing literature to represent direct land-use change emissions in a way that can be more readily incorporated into life cycle assessment. Our approach to representing direct land-use change literature has been applied to a specific set of data and offers immediate implications for decisionmakers, but it can also be generalized and replicated in the future, making use of improved scientific data on the magnitude and rates of direct land-use change emissions as it becomes available. -- Highlights: ► The GHG-intensity of bioenergy depends on how the biomass is obtained and used. ► Total GHG emissions may be dominated by direct land-use change emissions. ► There is significant scenario uncertainty in emissions based on the location of production. ► Emissions vary based on time elapsed since land-use change conversions. ► Our approach can be generalized to use improved scientific data in the future.

  16. Comparative assessment of thematic accuracy of GLC maps for specific applications using existing reference data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsendbazar, N. E.; de Bruin, S.; Mora, B.; Schouten, L.; Herold, M.

    2016-02-01

    Inputs to various applications and models, current global land cover (GLC) maps are based on different data sources and methods. Therefore, comparing GLC maps is challenging. Statistical comparison of GLC maps is further complicated by the lack of a reference dataset that is suitable for validating multiple maps. This study utilizes the existing Globcover-2005 reference dataset to compare thematic accuracies of three GLC maps for the year 2005 (Globcover, LC-CCI and MODIS). We translated and reinterpreted the LCCS (land cover classification system) classifier information of the reference dataset into the different map legends. The three maps were evaluated for a variety of applications, i.e., general circulation models, dynamic global vegetation models, agriculture assessments, carbon estimation and biodiversity assessments, using weighted accuracy assessment. Based on the impact of land cover confusions on the overall weighted accuracy of the GLC maps, we identified map improvement priorities. Overall accuracies were 70.8 ± 1.4%, 71.4 ± 1.3%, and 61.3 ± 1.5% for LC-CCI, MODIS, and Globcover, respectively. Weighted accuracy assessments produced increased overall accuracies (80-93%) since not all class confusion errors are important for specific applications. As a common denominator for all applications, the classes mixed trees, shrubs, grasses, and cropland were identified as improvement priorities. The results demonstrate the necessity of accounting for dissimilarities in the importance of map classification errors for different user application. To determine the fitness of use of GLC maps, accuracy of GLC maps should be assessed per application; there is no single-figure accuracy estimate expressing map fitness for all purposes.

  17. Food scenarios 2025

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sundbo, Jon

    2016-01-01

    This article presents the results of a future study of the food sector. Two scenarios have been developed using a combination of: 1) a summary of the relevant scientific knowledge, 2) systematic scenario writing, 3) an expert-based Delphi technique, and 4) an expert seminar assessment. The two...... scenarios present possible futures at global, national (Denmark) and regional (Zealand, Denmark) levels. The main scenario is called ‘Food for ordinary days and celebrations’ (a combination of ‘High-technological food production − The functional society’ and ‘High-gastronomic food − The experience society...

  18. The disposal of Canada's nuclear fuel waste: postclosure assessment of a reference system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The concept for disposal of Canada's nuclear fuel waste is based on a vault located deep in plutonic rock of the Canadian Shield. We document in this report a method to assess the long-term impacts of a disposal facility for nuclear fuel waste. The assessment integrates relevant information from engineering design studies, site investigations, laboratory studies, expert judgment and detailed mathematical analyses to evaluate system performance in terms of safety criteria, guidelines and standards. The method includes the use of quantitative tools such as the Systems Variability Analysis computer Code (SYVAC) to deal with parameter uncertainty and the use of reasoned arguments based on well-established scientific principles. We also document the utility of the method by describing its application to a hypothetical implementation of the concept called the reference disposal system. The reference disposal system generally conforms to the overall characteristics of the concept, except we have made some specific site and design choices so that the assessment would be more realistic. To make the reference system more representative of a real system, we have used the geological observations of the AECL's Whiteshell Research Area located near Lac du Bonnet, Manitoba, to define the characteristics of the geosphere and the groundwater flow system. This research area has been subject to more than a decade of geological and hydrological studies. The analysis of the reference disposal system provides estimates of radiological and chemical toxicity impacts on members of a critical group and estimates of possible impacts on the environment. The latter impacts include estimates of radiation dose to nonhuman organisms. Other quantitative analyses examine the use of derived constraints to improve the margin of safety, the effectiveness of engineered and natural barriers, and the sensitivity of the results to influential features, events, and processes of the reference disposal

  19. Assessing hydrological drought risk for the irrigation sector in future climate scenarios: lessons learned from the Apulia case study (Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Critto, Andrea; Torresan, Silvia; Ronco, Paolo; Zennaro, Federica; Santini, Monia; Trabucco, Antonio; Marcomini, Antonio

    2016-04-01

    Climate change is already affecting the frequency of drought events which may threaten the current stocks of water resources and thus the availability of freshwater for the irrigation. The achievement of a sustainable equilibrium between the availability of water resources and the irrigation demand is essentially related to the planning and implementation of evidence-based adaptation strategies and actions. In this sense, the improvement (of existing) and the development of (new) appropriate risk assessment methods and tools to evaluate the impact of drought events on irrigated crops is fundamental in order to assure that the agricultural yields are appropriate to meet the current and future food and market demand. This study evaluates the risk of hydrological drought on the irrigated agronomic compartment of Apulia, a semi-arid region in Southern Italy. We applied a stepwise Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) procedure, based on the consecutive analysis of hazards, exposure, vulnerability and risks, integrating the qualitative and quantitative available information. Future climate projections for the timeframes 2021-2050 and 2041-2070 were provided by COSMO-CLM under the radiative forcing RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The run-off feeding the water stocks of the most important irrigation reservoirs in Apulia was then modeled with Arc-SWAT. Hence, the hazard analysis was carried out in order to estimate the degree of fulfillment of actual irrigation demand satisfied by water supply of different reservoirs in future scenarios. Vulnerability of exposed irrigated crops was evaluated depending on three factors accounting for crop yield variation vs water stress, water losses along the irrigation network, diversification of water supply. Resulting risk and vulnerability maps allowed: the identification of Reclamation Consortia at higher risk of not fulfilling their future irrigation demand (e.g. Capitanata Reclamation Consortia in RCP8.5 2041-2070 scenario); the ranking of most

  20. Regional Issue Identification and Assessment (RIIA): an analysis of the Mid-Range Projection Series C Scenario. Executive summary for Federal Region IV

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Honea, B.; Hillsman, E.

    1979-10-01

    The Department of Energy (DOE) has hypothesized a number of alternate energy futures as part of its energy planning and analysis programs. In this report, which is part of DOE's Regional Issue Identification and Assessment (RIIA) Program, Oak Ridge National Laboratory examines how a proposed energy future called the Mid-Range Projection Series C Scenario would affect Federal Region IV (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Tennessee). This scenario, to be called the Series C Scenario, assumes a medium supply and a medium demand for fuel through 1990, and it incorporates the fuel switching provisions of the Energy Supply and Environmental Coordination Act. The report portrays the major regional environmental, human health and safety, socioeconomic, and institutional effects that might result from the implementation of the Series C Scenario.

  1. External Quality Assessment Scheme for reference laboratories - review of 8 years' experience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kessler, Anja; Siekmann, Lothar; Weykamp, Cas; Geilenkeuser, Wolf Jochen; Dreazen, Orna; Middle, Jonathan; Schumann, Gerhard

    2013-05-01

    We describe an External Quality Assessment Scheme (EQAS) intended for reference (calibration) laboratories in laboratory medicine and supervised by the Scientific Division of the International Federation of Clinical Chemistry and Laboratory Medicine and the responsible Committee on Traceability in Laboratory Medicine. The official EQAS website, RELA (www.dgkl-rfb.de:81), is open to interested parties. Information on all requirements for participation and results of surveys are published annually. As an additional feature, the identity of every participant in relation to the respective results is disclosed. The results of various groups of measurands (metabolites and substrates, enzymes, electrolytes, glycated hemoglobins, proteins, hormones, thyroid hormones, therapeutic drugs) are discussed in detail. The RELA system supports reference measurement laboratories preparing for accreditation according to ISO 17025 and ISO 15195. Participation in a scheme such as RELA is one of the requirements for listing of the services of a calibration laboratory by the Joint Committee on Traceability in Laboratory Medicine. PMID:23327864

  2. Including the temporal change in PM{sub 2.5} concentration in the assessment of human health impact: Illustration with renewable energy scenarios to 2050

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gschwind, Benoit, E-mail: benoit.gschwind@mines-paristech.fr [Centre Observation, Impacts, Energy, MINES ParisTech, 1 rue Claude Daunesse, CS 10207, F-06904 Sophia Antipolis (France); Lefevre, Mireille, E-mail: mireille.lefevre@mines-paristech.fr [Centre Observation, Impacts, Energy, MINES ParisTech, 1 rue Claude Daunesse, CS 10207, F-06904 Sophia Antipolis (France); Blanc, Isabelle, E-mail: isabelle.blanc@mines-paristech.fr [Centre Observation, Impacts, Energy, MINES ParisTech, 1 rue Claude Daunesse, CS 10207, F-06904 Sophia Antipolis (France); Ranchin, Thierry, E-mail: thierry.ranchin@mines-paristech.fr [Centre Observation, Impacts, Energy, MINES ParisTech, 1 rue Claude Daunesse, CS 10207, F-06904 Sophia Antipolis (France); Wyrwa, Artur, E-mail: awyrwa@agh.edu.pl [AGH University of Science and Technology, Al. Mickiewicza 30, Krakow 30-059 (Poland); Drebszok, Kamila [AGH University of Science and Technology, Al. Mickiewicza 30, Krakow 30-059 (Poland); Cofala, Janusz, E-mail: cofala@iiasa.ac.at [International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, 2067 Laxenburg (Austria); Fuss, Sabine, E-mail: fuss@mcc-berlin.net [International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, 2067 Laxenburg (Austria); Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change, Torgauer Str. 12-15, 10829 Berlin (Germany)

    2015-04-15

    This article proposes a new method to assess the health impact of populations exposed to fine particles (PM{sub 2.5}) during their whole lifetime, which is suitable for comparative analysis of energy scenarios. The method takes into account the variation of particle concentrations over time as well as the evolution of population cohorts. Its capabilities are demonstrated for two pathways of European energy system development up to 2050: the Baseline (BL) and the Low Carbon, Maximum Renewable Power (LC-MRP). These pathways were combined with three sets of assumptions about emission control measures: Current Legislation (CLE), Fixed Emission Factors (FEFs), and the Maximum Technically Feasible Reductions (MTFRs). Analysis was carried out for 45 European countries. Average PM{sub 2.5} concentration over Europe in the LC-MRP/CLE scenario is reduced by 58% compared with the BL/FEF case. Health impacts (expressed in days of loss of life expectancy) decrease by 21%. For the LC-MRP/MTFR scenario the average PM{sub 2.5} concentration is reduced by 85% and the health impact by 34%. The methodology was developed within the framework of the EU's FP7 EnerGEO project and was implemented in the Platform of Integrated Assessment (PIA). The Platform enables performing health impact assessments for various energy scenarios. - Highlights: • A new method to assess health impact of PM{sub 2.5} for energy scenarios is proposed. • An algorithm to compute Loss of Life Expectancy attributable to exposure to PM{sub 2.5} is depicted. • Its capabilities are demonstrated for two pathways of European energy system development up to 2050. • Integrating the temporal evolution of PM{sub 2.5} is of great interest for assessing the potential impacts of energy scenarios.

  3. Including the temporal change in PM2.5 concentration in the assessment of human health impact: Illustration with renewable energy scenarios to 2050

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This article proposes a new method to assess the health impact of populations exposed to fine particles (PM2.5) during their whole lifetime, which is suitable for comparative analysis of energy scenarios. The method takes into account the variation of particle concentrations over time as well as the evolution of population cohorts. Its capabilities are demonstrated for two pathways of European energy system development up to 2050: the Baseline (BL) and the Low Carbon, Maximum Renewable Power (LC-MRP). These pathways were combined with three sets of assumptions about emission control measures: Current Legislation (CLE), Fixed Emission Factors (FEFs), and the Maximum Technically Feasible Reductions (MTFRs). Analysis was carried out for 45 European countries. Average PM2.5 concentration over Europe in the LC-MRP/CLE scenario is reduced by 58% compared with the BL/FEF case. Health impacts (expressed in days of loss of life expectancy) decrease by 21%. For the LC-MRP/MTFR scenario the average PM2.5 concentration is reduced by 85% and the health impact by 34%. The methodology was developed within the framework of the EU's FP7 EnerGEO project and was implemented in the Platform of Integrated Assessment (PIA). The Platform enables performing health impact assessments for various energy scenarios. - Highlights: • A new method to assess health impact of PM2.5 for energy scenarios is proposed. • An algorithm to compute Loss of Life Expectancy attributable to exposure to PM2.5 is depicted. • Its capabilities are demonstrated for two pathways of European energy system development up to 2050. • Integrating the temporal evolution of PM2.5 is of great interest for assessing the potential impacts of energy scenarios

  4. Regional Issue Identification and Assessment program (RIIA). Environmental impacts and issues of the EIA MID-MID scenario: Federal Region II (New York and New Jersey)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brainard, J.; Munson, J.S.

    1979-05-01

    The impacts described for 1985 and 1990 are based on a national energy projection (scenario) which assumes medium energy demand and fuel supply through 1990 but does not incorporate the policies of the National Energy Act (NEA). This scenario, referred to as the Projection Series C or the TRENDLONG MID-MID scenario, is one of six possible energy futures developed by the DOE Energy Information Administration for the Department's 1977 Annual Report to Congress. It was chosen as representative of the official DOE national energy projections when this project was initiated, prior to the passage of the National Energy Act. The environmental impacts discussed in this volume are for Federal Region II, comprising New York and New Jersey.

  5. Determination of the scenarios to be included in the assessment of the safety of site for the disposal of radioactive waste in a deep geological formation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The procedure for selection and qualification of a site for the disposal of radioactive waste in a deep geological formation began in France in the early eighties. The public authorities, working from a recommendation by the ANDRA, made a pre-selection of four sites, each of which corresponded to a particular type of geological formation - granite, clay, salt and shale. Within two years, one of these sites would be chosen as the location for an underground laboratory, intended to verify whether the site was suitable as a nuclear waste repository and to prepare for its construction. The safety analysis for site qualification makes use of evolutionary scenarios representing the repository and its environment, selected by means of a deterministic method. This analysis defines, with an appropriate level of detail, a 'reference' scenario and 'random events' scenarios. (author)

  6. Reference manual for toxicity and exposure assessment and risk characterization. CERCLA Baseline Risk Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA, 1980) (CERCLA or Superfund) was enacted to provide a program for identifying and responding to releases of hazardous substances into the environment. The Superfund Amendments and Reauthorization Act (SARA, 1986) was enacted to strengthen CERCLA by requiring that site clean-ups be permanent, and that they use treatments that significantly reduce the volume, toxicity, or mobility of hazardous pollutants. The National Oil and Hazardous Substances Pollution Contingency Plan (NCP) (USEPA, 1985; USEPA, 1990) implements the CERCLA statute, presenting a process for (1) identifying and prioritizing sites requiring remediation and (2) assessing the extent of remedial action required at each site. The process includes performing two studies: a Remedial Investigation (RI) to evaluate the nature, extent, and expected consequences of site contamination, and a Feasibility Study (FS) to select an appropriate remedial alternative adequate to reduce such risks to acceptable levels. An integral part of the RI is the evaluation of human health risks posed by hazardous substance releases. This risk evaluation serves a number of purposes within the overall context of the RI/FS process, the most essential of which is to provide an understanding of ''baseline'' risks posed by a given site. Baseline risks are those risks that would exist if no remediation or institutional controls are applied at a site. This document was written to (1) guide risk assessors through the process of interpreting EPA BRA policy and (2) help risk assessors to discuss EPA policy with regulators, decision makers, and stakeholders as it relates to conditions at a particular DOE site

  7. Reference manual for toxicity and exposure assessment and risk characterization. CERCLA Baseline Risk Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1995-03-01

    The Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA, 1980) (CERCLA or Superfund) was enacted to provide a program for identifying and responding to releases of hazardous substances into the environment. The Superfund Amendments and Reauthorization Act (SARA, 1986) was enacted to strengthen CERCLA by requiring that site clean-ups be permanent, and that they use treatments that significantly reduce the volume, toxicity, or mobility of hazardous pollutants. The National Oil and Hazardous Substances Pollution Contingency Plan (NCP) (USEPA, 1985; USEPA, 1990) implements the CERCLA statute, presenting a process for (1) identifying and prioritizing sites requiring remediation and (2) assessing the extent of remedial action required at each site. The process includes performing two studies: a Remedial Investigation (RI) to evaluate the nature, extent, and expected consequences of site contamination, and a Feasibility Study (FS) to select an appropriate remedial alternative adequate to reduce such risks to acceptable levels. An integral part of the RI is the evaluation of human health risks posed by hazardous substance releases. This risk evaluation serves a number of purposes within the overall context of the RI/FS process, the most essential of which is to provide an understanding of ``baseline`` risks posed by a given site. Baseline risks are those risks that would exist if no remediation or institutional controls are applied at a site. This document was written to (1) guide risk assessors through the process of interpreting EPA BRA policy and (2) help risk assessors to discuss EPA policy with regulators, decision makers, and stakeholders as it relates to conditions at a particular DOE site.

  8. CARDIOVASCULAR RISK ASSESSMENT AND SUPPORT TECHNIQUES Whole blood viscosity assessment issues I: Extrapolation chart and reference values

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ezekiel Uba Nwose

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Background: There are many different methods for the assessment of whole blood viscosity, but not every pathology unit has equipment for any of the methods. However, a validated arithmetic method exists whereby whole blood viscosity can be extrapolated from haematocrit and total serum proteins. Aims: The objective of this work is to develop an algorithm in the form of a chart by which clinicians can easily extrapolate whole blood viscosity values in their consulting rooms or on the ward. Another objective is to suggest normal, subnormal and critical reference ranges applicable to this method. Materials and Methods: Whole blood viscosity at high shear stress was determined, from various possible pairs of haematocrit and total proteins. A chart was formulated so that whole blood viscosity can be extrapolated. After determination of two standard deviations from the mean and ascertainment of symmetric distribution, normal and abnormal reference ranges were defined. Results: The clinicians’ user-friendly chart is presented. Considering presumptive lower and upper limits, the continuum of ≤14.28, 14.29 – 15.00, 15.01 – 19.01, 19.02 – 19.39 and ≥19.40 (208 Sec-1 is obtained as reference ranges for critically low, subnormal low, normal, subnormal high and critically high whole blood viscosity levels respectively. Conclusion: This article advances a validated method to provide a user-friendly chart that would enable clinicians to assess whole blood viscosity for any patients who has results for full blood count and total proteins. It would make the assessment of whole blood viscosity costless and the neglect of a known cardiovascular risk factor less excusable.

  9. Climate and socio-economic scenarios for climate change research and assessment: reconciling the new with the old

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Vuuren, D.P.; Carter, T.R.

    2014-01-01

    A suggestion for mapping the SRES illustrative scenarios onto the new scenarios framework of representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) is presented. The mapping first compares storylines describing future socio-economic developments for SRES and SSPs. Nex

  10. AMAT guidelines. Reference document for the IAEA Ageing Management Assessment Teams (AMATs)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Effective ageing management is an important element for ensuring the safety of nuclear power plant. The IAEA Ageing Management Assessment Team (AMAT) programme provides advice and assistance to utilities or individual NPPs to strengthen and enhance the effectiveness of ageing management programs (AMPs). Such AMPs are required by an increasing number of safety utilities and implemented by an increasing number of utilities, often as a part of NPP life or life cycle management programs that involve the integration of ageing management and economic planning. The guidelines in this report are primarily intended for IAEA-led AMAT team members as a basic structure and common reference for peer reviews of AMPs

  11. A CLINICAL STUDY TO ASSESS THE POST-OPERATIVE OUTCOME IN TYMPANOPLASTY USING COMOT-15 IN INDIAN SCENARIO

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mahendra Kumar

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available : Functional and subjective evaluation of 96 patients with CSOM following Tympanoplasty was conducted to assess health-related quality of life (HR-QOL. Many instruments are tried by various authors in evaluating relevant dimensions of HR-QOL. A prospective study was conducted to know the patient satisfaction and it is correlated with the Graft healing and audiological measurement.COMOT-15 parameter described by Baumann I, Kurpiers B, Plinkert PK, Praetorius M et al. was used in Indian scenario. It showed good correlation between the subscale hearing function from the COMOT-15 questionnaire and audiological findings. AIM: To prospectively evaluate subjective improvement in Health related Quality of Life and Disease specific Quality of Life in patients undergoing surgery for CSOM. To evaluate the relation between audiometric and psychometric measurements in post Tympanoplasty patients. The study also aims to audit the results of surgery in a surgeon’s perspective of integration of the graft, prosthesis function and objective audiological improvement. MATERIALS AND METHODS: 110 patients who underwent surgery for CSOM at Government General Hospital, Kurnool, attached to Kurnool Medical College, Kurnool, Andhra Pradesh were assessed with Chronic Otitis Media Outcome Test (COMOT-15, Visual Analogue Scale, PTA, Closure of AB gap and otoscopic examination for evidence of graft healing and prosthesis function. The study was conducted between September 2011 and January 2014 and the patients were assessed at 6 months 12 months statistically analyzed to calculate the overall benefit to the patient. RESULTS: Use of multiple parameters like COMOT-15, Visual Analogue Scale, PTA and Closure of AB gap in assessing Tympanoplasty patients showed an easy and practicable method of evaluation with reliability. The test reliability coefficients was (all r>0.6. Content validity was determined by a study of the literature. These tests can distinguish CSOM patients

  12. Assessing Storm Vulnerabilities and Resilience Strategies: A Scenario-Method for Engaging Stakeholders of Public/Private Maritime Infrastructure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Becker, A.; Burroughs, R.

    2014-12-01

    This presentation discusses a new method to assess vulnerability and resilience strategies for stakeholders of coastal-dependent transportation infrastructure, such as seaports. Much coastal infrastructure faces increasing risk to extreme events resulting from sea level rise and tropical storms. As seen after Hurricane Sandy, natural disasters result in economic costs, damages to the environment, and negative consequences on resident's quality of life. In the coming decades, tough decisions will need to be made about investment measures to protect critical infrastructure. Coastal communities will need to weigh the costs and benefits of a new storm barrier, for example, against those of retrofitting, elevating or simply doing nothing. These decisions require understanding the priorities and concerns of stakeholders. For ports, these include shippers, insurers, tenants, and ultimate consumers of the port cargo on a local and global scale, all of whom have a stake in addressing port vulnerabilities.Decision-makers in exposed coastal areas need tools to understand stakeholders concerns and perceptions of potential resilience strategies. For ports, they need answers to: 1) How will stakeholders be affected? 2) What strategies could be implemented to build resilience? 3) How effectively would the strategies mitigate stakeholder concerns? 4) What level of time and investment would strategies require? 5) Which stakeholders could/should take responsibility? Our stakeholder-based method provides answers to questions 1-3 and forms the basis for further work to address 4 and 5.Together with an expert group, we developed a pilot study for stakeholders of Rhode Island's critical energy port, the Port of Providence. Our method uses a plausible extreme storm scenario with localized visualizations and a portfolio of potential resilience strategies. We tailor a multi-criteria decision analysis tool and, through a series of workshops, we use the storm scenario, resilience strategies

  13. Knowledge Brokerage for Impact Assessment of Land Use Scenarios in Inner Mongolia, China: Extending and Testing the FoPIA Approach

    OpenAIRE

    König, Hannes J.; Aranka Podhora; Lin Zhen; Katharina Helming; Huimin Yan; Bingzhen Du; Jost Wübbeke; Chao Wang; Julie Klinger; Cheng Chen; Sandra Uthes

    2015-01-01

    While land serves numerous societal functions and contributes to sustainable development, it is often unclear how these functions are affected by political decisions and common drivers of land use change, such as economic development, climate change and demographic change. This study evaluates alternative land use scenarios in reference to a rural region of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region (China), where various processes and decisions have historically triggered unsustainable development. Th...

  14. Probabilistic calculations and sensitivity analysis of parameters for a reference biosphere model assessing the potential exposure of a population to radionuclides from a deep geological repository

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Staudt, Christian; Kaiser, Jan Christian [Helmholtz Zentrum Muenchen, Institute of Radiation Protection, Munich (Germany); Proehl, Gerhard [International Atomic Energy Agency, Division of Radiation, Transport and Waste Safety, Wagramerstrasse 5, 1400 Vienna (Austria)

    2014-07-01

    Radioecological models are used to assess the exposure of hypothetical populations to radionuclides. Potential radionuclide sources are deep geological repositories for high level radioactive waste. Assessment time frames are long since releases from those repositories are only expected in the far future, and radionuclide migration to the geosphere biosphere interface will take additional time. Due to the long time frames, climate conditions at the repository site will change, leading to changing exposure pathways and model parameters. To identify climate dependent changes in exposure in the far field of a deep geological repository a range of reference biosphere models representing climate analogues for potential future climate states at a German site were developed. In this approach, model scenarios are developed for different contemporary climate states. It is assumed that the exposure pathways and parameters of the contemporary biosphere in the far field of the repository will change to be similar to those at the analogue sites. Since current climate models cannot predict climate developments over the assessment time frame of 1 million years, analogues for a range of realistically possible future climate conditions were selected. These climate states range from steppe to permafrost climate. As model endpoint Biosphere Dose conversion factors (BDCF) are calculated. The radionuclide specific BDCF describe the exposure of a population to radionuclides entering the biosphere in near surface ground water. The BDCF are subject to uncertainties in the exposure pathways and model parameters. In the presented work, probabilistic and sensitivity analysis was used to assess the influence of model parameter uncertainties on the BDCF and the relevance of individual parameters for the model result. This was done for the long half-live radionuclides Cs-135, I-129 and U-238. In addition to this, BDCF distributions for nine climate reference regions and several scenarios were

  15. Subjective Memory Ability and Long-Term Forgetting in Patients Referred for Neuropsychological Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Werf, Sieberen P; Geurts, Sofie; de Werd, Maartje M E

    2016-01-01

    It has been suggested that the memory complaints of patients who are not impaired on formal memory tests may reflect accelerated forgetting. We examined this hypothesis by comparing the 1-week delayed recall and recognition test performance of outpatients who were referred for neuropsychological assessment and who had normal memory performance during standard memory assessment with that of a non-patient control group. Both groups performed equally in verbal learning and delayed recall. However, after 1 week, the patients performed worse than controls on both recall and recognition tests. Although subjective memory ability predicted short-term memory function in patients, it did not predict long-term delayed forgetting rates in either the patients or controls. Thus, long-term delayed recall and recognition intervals provided no additional value to explain poor subjective memory ability in the absence of objective memory deficits.

  16. PAHs in baby food: assessment of three different processing techniques for the preparation of reference materials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huertas-Pérez, José Fernando; Bordajandi, Luisa R; Sejerøe-Olsen, Berit; Emteborg, Håkan; Baù, Andrea; Schimmel, Heinz; Dabrio, Marta

    2015-04-01

    A feasibility study for producing a matrix reference material for selected polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in baby food is reported. A commercially available baby food, containing carrots, potatoes, tomato, white beans and meat, was spiked with the so-called 15 + 1 PAHs included in the PAHs priority list for food of the EU, at a mass fraction level of 1 μg/kg. The contaminated baby food was further processed by autoclaving, freezing or freeze drying. The homogeneity of the three materials (bottle-to-bottle variation) and their short-term (4 weeks) and long-term (18 months) stability at different temperatures were assessed. To this end, an analytical method based on a solid-liquid extraction followed by cleaning up with gel permeation chromatography (GPC) and solid phase extraction (SPE) and GC-IDMS determination, was validated in-house. It could be demonstrated that the procedure fulfilled the demands for application to the homogeneity and isochronous stability studies for the candidate reference materials targeted here. All three materials proved to be sufficiently homogeneous for the intended use. Measurements on the autoclaved material provided the most promising results in terms of envisaged shelf life, although freeze drying was also found to be a suitable processing technique for most of the investigated PAHs. These results are an important step towards the development of a matrix reference material for PAHs in a processed food matrix in a presentation very similar to routine samples.

  17. Patient and referring health care provider satisfaction with a physiotherapy spinal triage assessment service

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bath B

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Brenna Bath1, Bonnie Janzen21School of Physical Therapy, College of Medicine, University of Saskatchewan, 2Community Health and Epidemiology, College of Medicine, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, CanadaPurpose: To evaluate participant and referring care provider satisfaction associated with a spinal triage assessment service delivered by physiotherapists in collaboration with orthopedic surgeons.Methods: People with low back-related complaints were recruited from those referred to a spinal triage assessment program delivered by physiotherapists. Measures of patient and provider satisfaction were completed at approximately 4 weeks after the assessment. The satisfaction surveys were analyzed quantitatively with descriptive statistics and qualitatively with an inductive thematic approach of open and axial coding.Results: A total of 108/115 participants completed the posttest satisfaction survey. Sixty-six percent of participants were “very satisfied” with the service and 55% were “very satisfied” with the recommendations that were made. Only 18% of referring care providers completed the satisfaction survey and 90.5% of those were “very satisfied” with the recommendations. Sixty-one participants and 14 care providers provided comments which revealed a diverse range of themes which were coded into positive (ie, understanding the problem, communication, customer service, efficiency, and management direction, negative (ie, lack of detail, time to follow-up, cost and neutral related to the triage service, and an “other” category unrelated to the service (ie, chronic symptoms, comorbidities, and limited access to health care.Conclusion: The quantitative results of the participant survey demonstrated very high levels of satisfaction with the service and slightly less satisfaction with the recommendations that were made. Satisfaction of referring care providers with the recommendations and report was also high, but given

  18. Chemical Transport and Reduced-Form Models for Assessing Air Quality Impacts of Current and Future Energy Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adams, P. J.

    2015-12-01

    Though essential for informed decision-making, it is challenging to estimate the air quality and public health impacts associated with current and future energy generation scenarios because the analysis must address the complicated atmospheric processes that air pollutants undergo: emissions, dispersion, chemistry, and removal. Employing a chemical transport model (CTM) is the most rigorous way to address these atmospheric processes. However, CTMs are expensive from a computational standpoint and, therefore, beyond the reach of policy analysis for many types of problems. On the other hand, previously available reduced-form models used for policy analysis fall short of the rigor of CTMs and may lead to biased results. To address this gap, we developed the Estimating Air pollution Social Impacts Using Regression (EASIUR) method, which builds parameterizations that predict per-tonne social costs and intake fractions for pollutants emitted from any location in the United States. Derived from a large database of tagged CTM simulations, the EASIUR method predicts social costs almost indistinguishable from a full CTM but with negligible computational requirements. We found that the average mortality-related social costs from inorganic PM2.5 and its precursors in the United States are 150,000-180,000/t EC, 21,000-34,000/t SO2, 4,200-15,000/t NOx, and 29,000-85,000/t NH3. This talk will demonstrate examples of using both CTMs and reduced-form models for assessing air quality impacts associated with current energy production activities as well as a future deployment of carbon capture and sequestration.

  19. Assessing models of speciation under different biogeographic scenarios; An empirical study using multi-locus and RNA-seq analyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Taylor; Tollis, Marc; Hsieh, PingHsun; Gutenkunst, Ryan N.; Liu, Zhen; Kusumi, Kenro; Culver, Melanie; Murphy, Robert W.

    2016-01-01

    Evolutionary biology often seeks to decipher the drivers of speciation, and much debate persists over the relative importance of isolation and gene flow in the formation of new species. Genetic studies of closely related species can assess if gene flow was present during speciation, because signatures of past introgression often persist in the genome. We test hypotheses on which mechanisms of speciation drove diversity among three distinct lineages of desert tortoise in the genus Gopherus. These lineages offer a powerful system to study speciation, because different biogeographic patterns (physical vs. ecological segregation) are observed at opposing ends of their distributions. We use 82 samples collected from 38 sites, representing the entire species' distribution and generate sequence data for mtDNA and four nuclear loci. A multilocus phylogenetic analysis in *BEAST estimates the species tree. RNA-seq data yield 20,126 synonymous variants from 7665 contigs from two individuals of each of the three lineages. Analyses of these data using the demographic inference package ∂a∂i serve to test the null hypothesis of no gene flow during divergence. The best-fit demographic model for the three taxa is concordant with the *BEAST species tree, and the ∂a∂i analysis does not indicate gene flow among any of the three lineages during their divergence. These analyses suggest that divergence among the lineages occurred in the absence of gene flow and in this scenario the genetic signature of ecological isolation (parapatric model) cannot be differentiated from geographic isolation (allopatric model).

  20. Generic Screening Models for Assessing Exposures to the Public and ICRP Reference Animals and Plants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yankovich, Tamara L.; Proehl, Gerhard; Telleria, Diego [International Atomic Energy Agency, P.O. Box 100, 1400 Vienna (Austria); Berkovskyy, Volodymyr [Ukrainian Radiation Protection Institute (RPI), 53, Melnikova Street, 04050, Kiev (Ukraine)

    2014-07-01

    With the update of the IAEA Fundamental Safety Principles (SF-1) stating the objective to protect people and the environment from harmful effects of ionizing radiation, it has been necessary to update International Basic Safety Standards (BSS) on Radiation Protection and Safety of Radiation Sources and the underlying safety guides and technical documents to provide guidance on how this could be achieved in practice. The current paper provides an update on the status and plans to revise the IAEA Safety Report 'Generic Models for Use in Assessing the Impact of Discharges of Radioactive Substances to the Environment' (SRS 19) that was published in 2001. The models of SRS 19 (2001), which was focused on assessment of exposures to the public, is being expanded into three volumes that provide methodologies for screening assessments for the public, as well as for flora and fauna. The revised SRS 19 guide will ultimately facilitate the application of screening models for different levels of assessment using updated parameter values from database that have been developed as part of the IAEA's EMRAS (Environmental Modelling for Radiation Safety) and EMRAS II international model validation programmes. The scope of the revised SRS 19 covers prospective screening assessment of doses to the representative person and Reference Animals and Plants (RAPs), and will provide simple and robust assessment methods for radiological assessment related to planning and design, applying a graded approach. Tabulated screening coefficients and environmental dilution factors will be included for 825 radionuclides. The screening coefficients are developed assuming equilibrium conditions; they can be used to assess radiological impacts arising from routine discharges of radionuclides to terrestrial and aquatic receptors for planned exposure situations. Volumes 1 and 2 of the revised SRS 19 are at an advanced stage of completion and are focused on 'Screening Assessment of Public

  1. A comprehensive assessment of agricultural intensification scenarios for the Dongting Lake basin in south-central China in 2030.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yin, Guanyi; Liu, Liming; Chang, Xiao; Sun, Jin

    2016-07-01

    To explore the future of the material demand, pollutant emission, production, and arable land area surrounding the Dongting Lake basin, and to find a potential solution for agricultural development, this study assumes the following four agriculture intensification scenarios: the natural development scenario (ND), the production development scenario (PD), the moderate intensification scenario (MI), and the local resilience scenario (LR). The scenarios focus on different developmental patterns (natural development, short-term production growth, long-term sustainability, or self-sufficiency).The result shows to satisfy the food demand in 2030, and the production of crop and meat will be 26.96, 30.25, 28.05, and 16.27 × 10(6) t in ND, PD, MI, and LR, respectively; more than 1.78 × 10(6) ha of arable land is needed. Compared with the year 2012, the material input and pollutant output will increase by a maximum of 18.32 and 122.31 %, respectively. By classifying the environmental risk into four categories-greenhouse gas emission, air pollution, eutrophication, and ecotoxicity-the composite environmental risk index (CER) is calculated. The CER in PD was the highest, followed by that in ND, LR, and MI. Due to the production allocation within the 35 cities and counties, the spatial distribution of CER is more homogenous in PD and MI than in ND. The analysis of the scenarios reveals that through technological improvement and spatial allocation of agricultural production, scenario MI could be a potential direction for the government to design a sustainable agricultural-environmental system. PMID:27040549

  2. A framework incorporating the impact of exposure scenarios and application conditions on risk assessment of chemicals applied to skin

    OpenAIRE

    Dancik, Yuri; Troutman, John A; Jaworska, Joanna

    2013-01-01

    Purpose 1. To develop a framework for exposure calculation via the dermal route to meet the needs of 21st century toxicity testing and refine current approaches; 2. To demonstrate the impact of exposure scenario and application conditions on the plasma concentration following dermal exposure. Method A workflow connecting a dynamic skin penetration model with a generic whole-body physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model was developed. The impact of modifying exposure scenarios and ap...

  3. Preliminary assessment of the health and environmental effects of coal utilization in the midwest. Volume I. Energy scenarios, technology characterizations, air and water resource impacts, and health effects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    1977-01-01

    An initial evaluation of the major health and environmental issues associated with increased coal use in the six midwestern states of Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, and Wisconsin is presented. Using an integrated assessment approach, the evaluation proceeds from a base-line scenario of energy demand and facility siting for the period 1975 to 2020. Emphasis is placed on impacts from coal extraction, land reclamation, coal combustion for electrical generation, and coal gasification. The range of potential impacts and constraints is illustrated by a second scenario that represents an expected upper limit for coal utilization in Illinois. Included are: (1) a characterization of the energy demand and siting scenarios, coal related technologies, and coal resources, and (2) the related impacts on air quality, water availability, water quality, and human health.

  4. Land use scenarios development and impacts assessment on vegetation carbon/nitrogen sequestration in the West African Sudan savanna watershed, Benin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chabi, A.

    2015-12-01

    ackground: Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD+), being developed through the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) requires information on the carbon/nitrogen stocks in the plant biomass for predicting future climate under scenarios development. The development of land use scenarios in West Africa is needed to predict future impacts of change in the environment and the socio-economic status of rural communities. The study aims at developing land use scenario based on mitigation strategy to climate change as an issue of contributing for carbon and nitrogen sequestration, the condition 'food focused' as a scenario based crop production and 'financial investment' as scenario based on an economic development pathway, and to explore the possible future temporal and spatial impacts on vegetation carbon/nitrogen sequestration/emission and socio-economic status of rural communities. Preliminary results: BEN-LUDAS (Benin-Land Use DyNamic Simulator) model, carbon and nitrogen equations, remote sensing and socio-economic data were used to predict the future impacts of each scenario in the environment and human systems. The preliminary results which are under analysis will be presented soon. Conclusion: The proposed BEN-LUDAS models will help to contribute to policy decision making at the local and regional scale and to predict future impacts of change in the environment and socio-economic status of the rural communities. Keywords: Land use scenarios development, BEN-LUDAS, socio-economic status of rural communities, future impacts of change, assessment, West African Sudan savanna watershed, Benin

  5. Quality assessment of organic coffee beans for the preparation of a candidate reference material

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A random sampling was carried out in the coffee beans collected for the preparation of the organic green coffee reference material in view of assessing the homogeneity and the presence of soil as impurity. Fifteen samples were taken for the between-sample homogeneity evaluation. One of the samples was selected and 10 test portions withdrawn for the within-sample homogeneity evaluation. Br, Ca, Co, Cs, Fe, K, Na, Rb, Sc and Zn were determined by instrumental neutron activation analysis (INAA). The F-test demonstrated that the material is homogeneous for Ca, Co, Cs, K and Sc, but not homogeneous for Br, Fe, Na, Rb and Zn. Results of terrigenous elements suggested negligible soil contamination in the raw material. (author)

  6. Integrated climate/land use/hydrological change scenarios for assessing threats to ecosystem services on California rangelands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byrd, K. B.; Flint, L. E.; Casey, C. F.; Alvarez, P.; Sleeter, B. M.; Sohl, T.

    2013-12-01

    In California there are over 18 million acres of rangelands in the Central Valley and the interior Coast Range, most of which are privately owned and managed for livestock production. Ranches provide extensive wildlife habitat and generate multiple ecosystem services that carry considerable market and non-market values. These rangelands are under pressure from urbanization and conversion to intensive agriculture, as well as from climate change that can alter the flow of these services. To understand the coupled and isolated impacts of land use and climate change on rangeland ecosystem services, we developed six spatially explicit (250 m) coupled climate/land use/hydrological change scenarios for the Central Valley and oak woodland regions of California consistent with three IPCC emission scenarios - A2, A1B and B1. Three land use land cover (LULC) change scenarios were each integrated with two downscaled global climate models (GCMs) (a warm, wet future and a hot, dry future) and related hydrologic data. We used these scenarios to quantify wildlife habitat, water supply (recharge potential and streamflow) and carbon sequestration on rangelands and to conduct an economic analysis associated with changes in these benefits. The USGS FOREcasting SCEnarios of land-use change model (FORE-SCE), which runs dynamically with downscaled GCM outputs, was used to generate maps of yearly LULC change for each scenario from 2006 to 2100. We used the USGS Basin Characterization Model (BCM), a regional water balance model, to generate change in runoff, recharge, and stream discharge based on land use change and climate change. Metrics derived from model outputs were generated at the landscape scale and for six case-study watersheds. At the landscape scale, over a quarter of the million acres set aside for conservation in the B1 scenario would otherwise be converted to agriculture in the A2 scenario, where temperatures increase by up to 4.5 °C compared to 1.3 °C in the B1 scenario

  7. Towards generalised reference condition models for environmental assessment: a case study on rivers in Atlantic Canada.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armanini, D G; Monk, W A; Carter, L; Cote, D; Baird, D J

    2013-08-01

    Evaluation of the ecological status of river sites in Canada is supported by building models using the reference condition approach. However, geography, data scarcity and inter-operability constraints have frustrated attempts to monitor national-scale status and trends. This issue is particularly true in Atlantic Canada, where no ecological assessment system is currently available. Here, we present a reference condition model based on the River Invertebrate Prediction and Classification System approach with regional-scale applicability. To achieve this, we used biological monitoring data collected from wadeable streams across Atlantic Canada together with freely available, nationally consistent geographic information system (GIS) environmental data layers. For the first time, we demonstrated that it is possible to use data generated from different studies, even when collected using different sampling methods, to generate a robust predictive model. This model was successfully generated and tested using GIS-based rather than local habitat variables and showed improved performance when compared to a null model. In addition, ecological quality ratio data derived from the model responded to observed stressors in a test dataset. Implications for future large-scale implementation of river biomonitoring using a standardised approach with global application are presented. PMID:23250724

  8. CID2013: a database for evaluating no-reference image quality assessment algorithms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Virtanen, Toni; Nuutinen, Mikko; Vaahteranoksa, Mikko; Oittinen, Pirkko; Hakkinen, Jukka

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents a new database, CID2013, to address the issue of using no-reference (NR) image quality assessment algorithms on images with multiple distortions. Current NR algorithms struggle to handle images with many concurrent distortion types, such as real photographic images captured by different digital cameras. The database consists of six image sets; on average, 30 subjects have evaluated 12-14 devices depicting eight different scenes for a total of 79 different cameras, 480 images, and 188 subjects (67% female). The subjective evaluation method was a hybrid absolute category rating-pair comparison developed for the study and presented in this paper. This method utilizes a slideshow of all images within a scene to allow the test images to work as references to each other. In addition to mean opinion score value, the images are also rated using sharpness, graininess, lightness, and color saturation scales. The CID2013 database contains images used in the experiments with the full subjective data plus extensive background information from the subjects. The database is made freely available for the research community. PMID:25494511

  9. The disposal of Canada's nuclear fuel waste: comments on the postclosure assessment of a reference system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Canada, like other countries, is developing technology for disposal of its nuclear fuel waste , based on the concept of geological disposal in stable plutonic rock of the Canadian Shield. The choice of methods, materials, and designs for a disposal system will ultimately be made on the basis of safety, taking into account the characteristics of the specific site on which the facility is to be developed, costs and practicality. As part of its work in developing the technology for the disposal of Canada's nuclear fuel waste, AECL analyzed the performance of a hypothetical disposal facility that incorporates specific design choices for the engineered barriers and that assumes a specific geological setting. This system, comprising the disposal facility and the geological setting, and the results of the performance analysis, is described in an Environmental Impact Statement that AECL submitted in 1994 and in a Primary Reference for the EIS 'The Disposal of Canada's Nuclear Fuel Waste: Postclosure Assessment of a Reference System.' The performance analysis was not intended to be a general proof of the safety of disposal, but rather it presents a safety analysis of one specific system to illustrate the postclosure assessment methodology and to demonstrate that safety could be achieved for the system in question. Although the design of the disposal facility analyzed and the geological setting have specific features, the results obtained from the safety analysis can, however, be used to provide considerable insight into the performance of the various components that comprise the multibarrier geological disposal system. Moreover, the results can show how changes in the performance of specific components can affect the overall performance of the system. This report discusses these aspects of the postclosure analysis. (author)

  10. It's the Heat AND the Humidity -- Assessment of Extreme Heat Scenarios to Enable the Assessment of Climate Impacts on Public Health

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crosson, William L; Al-Hamdan, Mohammad Z.; Economou, Sigrid, A.; Estes, Maurice G.; Estes, Sue M.; Puckett, Mark; Quattrochi, Dale A

    2013-01-01

    In the United States, extreme heat is the most deadly weather-related hazard. In the face of a warming climate and urbanization, which contributes to local-scale urban heat islands, it is very likely that extreme heat events (EHEs) will become more common and more severe in the U.S. In a NASA-funded project supporting the National Climate Assessment, we are providing historical and future measures of extreme heat to enable assessments of the impacts of heat on public health over the coterminous U.S. We use atmospheric temperature and humidity information from meteorological reanalysis and from Global Climate Models (GCMs) to provide data on past and future heat events. The project s emphasis is on providing assessments of the magnitude, frequency and geographic distribution of extreme heat in the U.S. to facilitate public health studies. In our approach, long-term climate change is captured with GCM output, and the temporal and spatial characteristics of short-term extremes are represented by the reanalysis data. Two future time horizons, 2040 and 2090, are the focus of future assessments; these are compared to the recent past period of 1981-2000. We are characterizing regional-scale temperature and humidity conditions using GCM output for two climate change scenarios (A2 and A1B) defined in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). For each future period, 20 years of multi-model GCM output have been analyzed to develop a heat stress climatology based on statistics of extreme heat indicators. Differences between the two future and past periods have been used to define temperature and humidity changes on a monthly time scale and regional spatial scale. These changes, combined with hourly historical meteorological data at a spatial scale (12 km) much finer than that of GCMs, enable us to create future climate realizations, from which we compute the daily heat stress measures and related spatially-specific climatological fields. These include the mean annual

  11. Using Scenarios to Assess Policy Mixes for Resource Efficiency and Eco-Innovation in Different Fiscal Policy Frameworks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laurent Bontoux

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available There is no longer any doubt that the European Union needs to manage a transition towards a sustainable economy and society. The complexity of such an enterprise is creating major challenges that require a future oriented systemic approach, looking at the EU economy and society as a whole, and going beyond current agendas and policies. The purpose of the JRC foresight study “2035: Paths towards a sustainable EU economy” was to explore how this could be possible. Resource efficiency was at the core of the reflection. This created a context where the fiscal framework was perceived by the experts involved as essential in driving (or hindering the evolution towards a more sustainable future. Societal values (individualistic or collaborative were selected as the other axis around which to construct four scenarios. A large number of other drivers of change were taken into account to construct scenarios of a sufficient depth and detail to generate a systemic understanding. The scenarios were used in an original way to help experts identify which policy mixes would be best adapted to push each scenario towards a more sustainable future, while respecting its own logic and constraints. For each scenario, 6 policy domains considered the most relevant were selected among more than 50. Research and innovation, new business models and education were considered important for all four scenarios. The other domains were natural resources management, regulation, ethics, employment, transparency, governance, social protection, and systems integration. The study illustrates how powerful a policy framework which is fiscally supportive of environmental sustainability can be in supporting resource efficiency and that this can be achieved in very different ways depending on the prevailing social values. It also shows how a combination of actions in other policy areas can be used to drive sustainability further. In sum, this work illustrates how the creative use of

  12. Scenario? Guilty!

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kyng, Morten

    1992-01-01

    Robert Campbell categorizes the word "scenario" as a buzzword, identifies four major uses within HCI and suggests that we adopt new terms differentiating these four uses of the word. My first reaction to reading the article was definitely positive, but rereading it gave me enough second thoughts...

  13. Scenario analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Li, L.; Braat, L.C.; Lei, G.; Arets, E.J.M.M.; Liu, J.; Jiang, L.; Fan, Z.; Liu, W.; He, H.; Sun, X.

    2014-01-01

    This chapter presents the results of the scenario analysis of China’s ecosystems focusing on forest, grassland, and wetland ecosystems. The analysis was undertaken using Conversion of Land Use Change and its Effects (CLUE) modeling and an ecosystem service matrix (as explained below) complemented by

  14. Biomass Scenario Model Scenario Library: Definitions, Construction, and Description

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Inman, D.; Vimmerstedt, L.; Bush, B.; Peterson, S.

    2014-04-01

    Understanding the development of the biofuels industry in the United States is important to policymakers and industry. The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a system dynamics model of the biomass-to-biofuels system that can be used to explore policy effects on biofuels development. Because of the complexity of the model, as well as the wide range of possible future conditions that affect biofuels industry development, we have not developed a single reference case but instead developed a set of specific scenarios that provide various contexts for our analyses. The purpose of this report is to describe the scenarios that comprise the BSM scenario library. At present, we have the following policy-focused scenarios in our library: minimal policies, ethanol-focused policies, equal access to policies, output-focused policies, technological diversity focused, and the point-of-production- focused. This report describes each scenario, its policy settings, and general insights gained through use of the scenarios in analytic studies.

  15. Assessment of Reference Height Models on Quality of Tandem-X dem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mirzaee, S.; Motagh, M.; Arefi, H.

    2015-12-01

    The aim of this study is to investigate the effect of various Global Digital Elevation Models (GDEMs) in producing high-resolution topography model using TanDEM-X (TDX) Coregistered Single Look Slant Range Complex (CoSSC) images. We selected an image acquired on Jun 12th, 2012 over Doroud region in Lorestan, west of Iran and used 4 external digital elevation models in our processing including DLR/ASI X-SAR DEM (SRTM-X, 30m resolution), ASTER GDEM Version 2 (ASTER-GDEMV2, 30m resolution), NASA SRTM Version 4 (SRTM-V4, 90m resolution), and a local photogrammetry-based DEM prepared by National Cartographic Center (NCC DEM, 10m resolution) of Iran. InSAR procedure for DEM generation was repeated four times with each of the four external height references. The quality of each external DEM was initially assessed using ICESat filtered points. Then, the quality of, each TDX-based DEM was assessed using the more precise external DEM selected in the previous step. Results showed that both local (NCC) DEM and SRTM X-band performed the best (RMSE< 9m) for TDX-DEM generation. In contrast, ASTER GDEM v2 and SRTM C-band v4 showed poorer quality.

  16. Full-Reference Image Quality Assessment with Linear Combination of Genetically Selected Quality Measures

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-01-01

    Information carried by an image can be distorted due to different image processing steps introduced by different electronic means of storage and communication. Therefore, development of algorithms which can automatically assess a quality of the image in a way that is consistent with human evaluation is important. In this paper, an approach to image quality assessment (IQA) is proposed in which the quality of a given image is evaluated jointly by several IQA approaches. At first, in order to obtain such joint models, an optimisation problem of IQA measures aggregation is defined, where a weighted sum of their outputs, i.e., objective scores, is used as the aggregation operator. Then, the weight of each measure is considered as a decision variable in a problem of minimisation of root mean square error between obtained objective scores and subjective scores. Subjective scores reflect ground-truth and involve evaluation of images by human observers. The optimisation problem is solved using a genetic algorithm, which also selects suitable measures used in aggregation. Obtained multimeasures are evaluated on four largest widely used image benchmarks and compared against state-of-the-art full-reference IQA approaches. Results of comparison reveal that the proposed approach outperforms other competing measures. PMID:27341493

  17. Full-Reference Image Quality Assessment with Linear Combination of Genetically Selected Quality Measures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oszust, Mariusz

    2016-01-01

    Information carried by an image can be distorted due to different image processing steps introduced by different electronic means of storage and communication. Therefore, development of algorithms which can automatically assess a quality of the image in a way that is consistent with human evaluation is important. In this paper, an approach to image quality assessment (IQA) is proposed in which the quality of a given image is evaluated jointly by several IQA approaches. At first, in order to obtain such joint models, an optimisation problem of IQA measures aggregation is defined, where a weighted sum of their outputs, i.e., objective scores, is used as the aggregation operator. Then, the weight of each measure is considered as a decision variable in a problem of minimisation of root mean square error between obtained objective scores and subjective scores. Subjective scores reflect ground-truth and involve evaluation of images by human observers. The optimisation problem is solved using a genetic algorithm, which also selects suitable measures used in aggregation. Obtained multimeasures are evaluated on four largest widely used image benchmarks and compared against state-of-the-art full-reference IQA approaches. Results of comparison reveal that the proposed approach outperforms other competing measures. PMID:27341493

  18. Learning from global emissions scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scenarios of global greenhouse gas emissions have played a key role in climate change analysis for over twenty years. Currently, several research communities are organizing to undertake a new round of scenario development in the lead-up to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). To help inform this process, we assess a number of past efforts to develop and learn from sets of global greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. We conclude that while emissions scenario exercises have likely had substantial benefits for participating modeling teams and produced insights from individual models, learning from the exercises taken as a whole has been more limited. Model comparison exercises have typically focused on the production of large numbers of scenarios while investing little in assessing the results or the production process, perhaps on the assumption that later assessment efforts could play this role. However, much of this assessment potential remains untapped. Efforts such as scenario-related chapters of IPCC reports have been most informative when they have gone to extra lengths to carry out more specific comparison exercises, but in general these assessments do not have the remit or resources to carry out the kind of detailed analysis of scenario results necessary for drawing the most useful conclusions. We recommend that scenario comparison exercises build-in time and resources for assessing scenario results in more detail at the time when they are produced, that these exercises focus on more specific questions to improve the prospects for learning, and that additional scenario assessments are carried out separately from production exercises. We also discuss the obstacles to better assessment that might exist, and how they might be overcome. Finally, we recommend that future work include much greater emphasis on understanding how scenarios are actually used, as a guide to improving scenario production.

  19. Eco-efficient production of spring barley in a changed climate: A Life Cycle Assessment including primary data from future climate scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Niero, Monia; Ingvordsen, Cathrine Heinz; Peltonen-Sainio, Pirjo;

    2015-01-01

    leaching and change in crop yield). The main input data originate from experiments, where spring barley cultivars were cultivated in a climate phytotron under controlled and manipulated treatments. Effects of changed climate on both crop productivity and crop quality were represented, as well as impacts......The paper has two main objectives: (i) to assess the eco-efficiency of spring barley cultivation for malting in Denmark in a future changed climate (700 ppm [CO2] and +5 °C) through Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) and (ii) to compare alternative future cultivation scenarios, both excluding...... and including earlier sowing and cultivar selection as measures of adaptation to a changed climate. A baseline scenario describing the current spring barley cultivation in Denmark was defined, and the expected main deviations were identified (differences in pesticide treatment index, modifications in nitrate...

  20. 情景分析法在贵州省旅游发展规划环评中的应用研究%Application of Scenario Analysis in Environment Impact Assessment of GuiZhou Tourism Development Planning

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    杨桃萍; 常理; 毛思禹

    2015-01-01

    The application of scenario analysis method in planning impact assessment was introduced as well as its theory and characteristics.Four scenarios were set up for Guizhou province tourism development planning.They are planning exploitation,business as usual,high speed growth,and low speed growth.On the basis of comparing the results of different scenarios,scenario 1 seemed to be the best option,which has implied that planning demonstra-ted more obvious positive impacts on society and economy than the negative influences on environment and intangi-ble culture heritage.The environmental influence here referred to surface water quality and solid waste disposal.%介绍了情景分析法的理论体系、特性表述、在规划环评中的应用。贵州省旅游发展规划模拟了4种情景,分别是规划开发、正常发展、高速增长、低速增长。综合比较4种选择方案,情景1为最佳选择。评价结果显示:规划在社会经济方面的正面影响大于对环境和无形文化遗产的负面影响,这里的环境影响主要指地表水水质和固体废物的处置。

  1. Hazard Assessment for POPOCATÉPETL Volcano Using Hasset: a Probability Event Tree Tool to Evaluate Future Eruptive Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferrés, D.; Reyes Pimentel, T. A.; Espinasa-Pereña, R.; Nieto, A.; Sobradelo, R.; Flores, X.; González Huesca, A. E.; Ramirez, A.

    2013-05-01

    -eruptive crisis of April-May 2012, in order to identify the most probable processes in which this unrest could have developed and to contribute to the diagnosis task. In this research, we propose a comparison between the processes identified in this preliminary volcanic event tree and another elaborated using a Hazard Assessment Event Tree probability tool (HASSET), built on a bayesian event tree structure, using mainly the information of the known eruptive history of Popocatépetl. The HASSET method is based on Bayesian Inference and is used to assess volcanic hazard of future eruptive scenarios, by evaluating the most relevant sources of uncertainty that play a role in estimating the future probability of occurrence of a specific volcanic event. The final goal is to find the most useful tools to make the diagnosis and prognosis of the Popocatépetl volcanic activity, integrating the known eruptive history of the volcano, the experience of the scientific committee and the information provided by the monitoring systems, in an interactive and user-friendly way.

  2. Life cycle assessment of forecasting scenarios for urban water management: A first implementation of the WaLA model on Paris suburban area.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loubet, Philippe; Roux, Philippe; Guérin-Schneider, Laetitia; Bellon-Maurel, Véronique

    2016-03-01

    A framework and an associated modeling tool to perform life cycle assessment (LCA) of urban water system, namely the WaLA model, has been recently developed. In this paper, the WaLA model is applied to a real case study: the urban water system of the Paris suburban area, in France. It aims to verify the capacity of the model to provide environmental insights to stakeholder's issues related to future trends influencing the system (e.g., evolution of water demand, increasing water scarcity) or policy responses (e.g., choices of water resources and technologies). This is achieved by evaluating a baseline scenario for 2012 and several forecasting scenarios for 2022 and 2050. The scenarios are designed through the modeling tool WaLA, which is implemented in Simulink/Matlab: it combines components representing the different technologies, users and resources of the UWS. The life cycle inventories of the technologies and users components include water quantity and quality changes, specific operation (electricity, chemicals) and infrastructures data (construction materials). The methods selected for the LCIA are midpoint ILCD, midpoint water deprivation impacts at the sub-river basin scale, and endpoint Impact 2002+. The results of the baseline scenario show that wastewater treatment plants have the highest impacts compared to drinking water production and distribution, as traditionally encountered in LCA of UWS. The results of the forecasting scenarios show important changes in water deprivation impacts due to water management choices or effects of climate change. They also enable to identify tradeoffs with other impact categories and to compare several scenarios. It suggests the capacity of the model to deliver information for decision making about future policies.

  3. Is Greulich and Pyle atlas still a good reference for bone age assessment?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Aifeng; Tsao, Sinchai; Sayre, James W.; Gertych, Arkadiusz; Liu, Brent J.; Huang, H. K.

    2007-03-01

    The most commonly used method for bone age assessment in clinical practice is the book atlas matching method developed by Greulich and Pyle in the 1950s. Due to changes in both population diversity and nutrition in the United States, this atlas may no longer be a good reference. An updated data set becomes crucial to improve the bone age assessment process. Therefore, a digital hand atlas was built with 1,100 children hand images, along with patient information and radiologists' readings, of normal Caucasian (CAU), African American (BLK), Hispanic (HIS), and Asian (ASI) males (M) and females (F) with ages ranging from 0 - 18 years. This data was collected from Childrens' Hospital Los Angeles. A computer-aided-diagnosis (CAD) method has been developed based on features extracted from phalangeal regions of interest (ROIs) and carpal bone ROIs from this digital hand atlas. Using the data collected along with the Greulich and Pyle Atlas-based readings and CAD results, this paper addresses this question: "Do different ethnicities and gender have different bone growth patterns?" To help with data analysis, a novel web-based visualization tool was developed to demonstrate bone growth diversity amongst differing gender and ethnic groups using data collected from the Digital Atlas. The application effectively demonstrates a discrepancy of bone growth pattern amongst different populations based on race and gender. It also has the capability of helping a radiologist determine the normality of skeletal development of a particular patient by visualizing his or her chronological age, radiologist reading, and CAD assessed bone age relative to the accuracy of the P&G method.

  4. Urinary 1-hydroxypyrene concentration as an exposure biomarker to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in Mexican women from different hot spot scenarios and health risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pruneda-Álvarez, Lucia G; Pérez-Vázquez, Francisco J; Ruíz-Vera, Tania; Ochoa-Martínez, Ángeles C; Orta-García, Sandra T; Jiménez-Avalos, Jorge A; Pérez-Maldonado, Iván N

    2016-04-01

    Recently, in developing countries, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) have been considered contaminants of grave concern for women and children. Therefore, the aim of this study was twofold: (1) evaluate exposure assessment to PAHs using urinary 1-hydroxypyrene (1-OHP) as an exposure biomarker and (2) perform a health risk assessment in women from four different high risk scenarios in Mexico. From 2012 to 2013, in a cross-sectional study, we evaluated a total of 184 healthy women from the following scenarios: (A) indoor biomass combustion site (n = 50); (B) brick manufacturing site using different materials such as fuel sources (n = 70); (C) industrial site (n = 44); and (D) high vehicular traffic site (n = 20). 1-hydroxypyrene (1-OHP) was quantified using a high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) technique. Afterward, a probabilistic health risk assessment was performed (Monte Carlo analysis). Mean urinary 1-OHP levels found were 0.92 ± 0.92; 0.91 ± 0.83; 0.22 ± 0.19; and 0.14 ± 0.17 μg/L for scenario A, B, C, and D, respectively. Then, based on the measured urinary 1-OHP levels, the estimated median daily intake doses of pyrene were calculated: 659, 623, 162, and 77.4 ng/kg/day for the women participating in the study living in areas A, B, C, and D, respectively, and finally, the hazard quotient (HQ) was calculated (22 ± 21, 21 ± 20, 5.5 ± 5.5, and 2.6 ± 3.5; for areas A, B, C, and D, respectively), high health risk was noted for the women living in the studied communities. The data shown in this study (exposure levels to PAHs and health risk assessment) made it reasonable to conclude that the exposure levels found have a significant potential for generating adverse effects on human health in the studied scenarios. PMID:26662953

  5. Comparing forests across climates and biomes: qualitative assessments, reference forests and regional intercomparisons.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carl F Salk

    Full Text Available Communities, policy actors and conservationists benefit from understanding what institutions and land management regimes promote ecosystem services like carbon sequestration and biodiversity conservation. However, the definition of success depends on local conditions. Forests' potential carbon stock, biodiversity and rate of recovery following disturbance are known to vary with a broad suite of factors including temperature, precipitation, seasonality, species' traits and land use history. Methods like tracking over-time changes within forests, or comparison with "pristine" reference forests have been proposed as means to compare the structure and biodiversity of forests in the face of underlying differences. However, data from previous visits or reference forests may be unavailable or costly to obtain. Here, we introduce a new metric of locally weighted forest intercomparison to mitigate the above shortcomings. This method is applied to an international database of nearly 300 community forests and compared with previously published techniques. It is particularly suited to large databases where forests may be compared among one another. Further, it avoids problematic comparisons with old-growth forests which may not resemble the goal of forest management. In most cases, the different methods produce broadly congruent results, suggesting that researchers have the flexibility to compare forest conditions using whatever type of data is available. Forest structure and biodiversity are shown to be independently measurable axes of forest condition, although users' and foresters' estimations of seemingly unrelated attributes are highly correlated, perhaps reflecting an underlying sentiment about forest condition. These findings contribute new tools for large-scale analysis of ecosystem condition and natural resource policy assessment. Although applied here to forestry, these techniques have broader applications to classification and evaluation problems

  6. Comparing forests across climates and biomes: qualitative assessments, reference forests and regional intercomparisons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salk, Carl F; Frey, Ulrich; Rusch, Hannes

    2014-01-01

    Communities, policy actors and conservationists benefit from understanding what institutions and land management regimes promote ecosystem services like carbon sequestration and biodiversity conservation. However, the definition of success depends on local conditions. Forests' potential carbon stock, biodiversity and rate of recovery following disturbance are known to vary with a broad suite of factors including temperature, precipitation, seasonality, species' traits and land use history. Methods like tracking over-time changes within forests, or comparison with "pristine" reference forests have been proposed as means to compare the structure and biodiversity of forests in the face of underlying differences. However, data from previous visits or reference forests may be unavailable or costly to obtain. Here, we introduce a new metric of locally weighted forest intercomparison to mitigate the above shortcomings. This method is applied to an international database of nearly 300 community forests and compared with previously published techniques. It is particularly suited to large databases where forests may be compared among one another. Further, it avoids problematic comparisons with old-growth forests which may not resemble the goal of forest management. In most cases, the different methods produce broadly congruent results, suggesting that researchers have the flexibility to compare forest conditions using whatever type of data is available. Forest structure and biodiversity are shown to be independently measurable axes of forest condition, although users' and foresters' estimations of seemingly unrelated attributes are highly correlated, perhaps reflecting an underlying sentiment about forest condition. These findings contribute new tools for large-scale analysis of ecosystem condition and natural resource policy assessment. Although applied here to forestry, these techniques have broader applications to classification and evaluation problems using crowdsourced

  7. Assessment of reference values for mercury in urine: the results of an Italian polycentric study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Apostoli, P; Cortesi, I; Mangili, A; Elia, G; Drago, I; Gagliardi, T; Soleo, L; Valente, T; Sciarra, G F; Aprea, C; Ronchi, A; Minoia, C

    2002-04-22

    The results of a polycentric study to assess the reference values of urinary mercury (U-Hg) in four Italian cities are presented. A total of 383 subjects were selected on the basis of standardised criteria by a questionnaire on personal habits, lifestyle, occupational or non-occupational exposure to Hg, medical history, number and area of dental amalgams. U-Hg was determined by hydride generation atomic absorption method (HG-AAS), with a detection limit of 0.5 microg/l and by flow injection (FI) inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS), with a detection limit of 0.03 microg/l. The median value of U-Hg, determined by HG-AAS, was 0.78 microg/g creatinine (0.75 for males and 0.83 for females), with 5 degrees and 95 degrees percentiles, respectively, of 0.17 and 3.66 microg/g creatinine. When determined by FI ICP-MS, the median value was 0.79 microg/g creatinine (0.77 for males and 0.79 for females) with 5 degrees and 95 degrees percentiles of, respectively, 0.12 and 5.02 microg/g creatinine. Among the independent variables, city of origin, area of dental amalgams, fish intake and tobacco smoking significantly influenced the U-Hg levels. The U-Hg reference values from this survey are lower than those from other recent investigations, probably due to characteristics and selection of the examined individuals and to the strict control of pre-analytical and analytical factors of variability. PMID:12049389

  8. Comparing forests across climates and biomes: qualitative assessments, reference forests and regional intercomparisons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salk, Carl F; Frey, Ulrich; Rusch, Hannes

    2014-01-01

    Communities, policy actors and conservationists benefit from understanding what institutions and land management regimes promote ecosystem services like carbon sequestration and biodiversity conservation. However, the definition of success depends on local conditions. Forests' potential carbon stock, biodiversity and rate of recovery following disturbance are known to vary with a broad suite of factors including temperature, precipitation, seasonality, species' traits and land use history. Methods like tracking over-time changes within forests, or comparison with "pristine" reference forests have been proposed as means to compare the structure and biodiversity of forests in the face of underlying differences. However, data from previous visits or reference forests may be unavailable or costly to obtain. Here, we introduce a new metric of locally weighted forest intercomparison to mitigate the above shortcomings. This method is applied to an international database of nearly 300 community forests and compared with previously published techniques. It is particularly suited to large databases where forests may be compared among one another. Further, it avoids problematic comparisons with old-growth forests which may not resemble the goal of forest management. In most cases, the different methods produce broadly congruent results, suggesting that researchers have the flexibility to compare forest conditions using whatever type of data is available. Forest structure and biodiversity are shown to be independently measurable axes of forest condition, although users' and foresters' estimations of seemingly unrelated attributes are highly correlated, perhaps reflecting an underlying sentiment about forest condition. These findings contribute new tools for large-scale analysis of ecosystem condition and natural resource policy assessment. Although applied here to forestry, these techniques have broader applications to classification and evaluation problems using crowdsourced

  9. Risk assessment in fractured porous media with particular reference to water catchments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Enzenhoefer, R.; Helmig, R.; Nowak, W.; Binning, P. J.

    2009-04-01

    . As a consequence, the four vulnerability criteria are assessed stochastically. The stochastic approach increases computational costs. As a counter-measure, we approximate the transient contaminant transport process by a higher-order expansion in the temporal moments of breakthrough, which we simulate directly from steady-state moment-generating equations [Harvey and Gorelick, 1995]. The computational time saved by the approximation in transient behaviour is then available for stochastic modelling. For further computational savings, we adopt the reverse formulation of well contamination. With the help of a geostatistical fracture-matrix generator [here: Silberhorn-Hemminger, 2002] we generate artificial fractured-matrix systems, representing the mean characteristic karst properties (e.g. fracture density, etc.) within the study area or any artificial aquifer domain. In a Monte Carlo approach, an ensemble of 1000 fracture-matrix systems are randomly generated, and the flow and transport processes are calculated in DuMuX as a one phase two component model. With an inverse formulation of the steady-state transport problem, the capture zone of the well can be calculated for each realization. The mean arrival time at the well may be calculated directly from the first temporal moment equation. Peak contamination level, peak arrival time, threshold arrival time and exposure time require more information than merely the first temporal moment. In order to reconstruct dispersive contaminant dilution and the shape of the breakthrough curve, the second central temporal moment equation (and higher order moment equations) are applied. Then, by statistical analysis of the ensemble results, all four intrinsic well vulnerability measures can be calculated. The final protection area outlines are given by the maximum acceptable risk level for a water manager towards its water supply from the catchment perspective. To validate our approach for a real case scenario, the whole risk concept

  10. EDITORIAL: Where next with global environmental scenarios? Where next with global environmental scenarios?

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Neill, Brian; Pulver, Simone; Van Deveer, Stacy; Garb, Yaakov

    2008-12-01

    -oriented scenario exercises also generate scenario products, but such products are recognized as meaningful mostly (or only) in the social context in which they were developed. It should be noted that those seeking to understand the functions, implications and utility of scenarios can approach analysis of scenarios and their impacts from either perspective—focusing attention on product outcomes and influence or assessing procedural and contextual dynamics and implications. Papers in this issue examine various aspects of scenario products, scenario processes and their interactions, with specific reference to global environmental change scenarios. Hulme and Dessai (2008) use the product-process distinction as a starting point for developing a framework to evaluate the success of scenario exercises. They identify 'prediction success', 'decision success' and 'learning success' as three evaluation metrics for scenarios, with the first two most relevant to scenario products and the last emphasizing procedural aspects of scenarios. They suggest that viewing scenarios primarily as products implies examining how closely actual outcomes have matched envisioned outcomes, while viewing them primarily as processes suggests evaluating the extent to which scenarios engaged participants and enabled their learning. O'Neill and Nakicenovic (2008) focus on Hulme and Dessai's evaluation metric, learning. Based on a review of six scenario/assessment exercises, they ask if and how scenario products have incorporated comparative assessments of results in order to enable cumulative learning across scenario efforts. The authors conclude that, although participating modelling teams have benefited greatly from the process of scenario activities and applied that learning to other scenario exercises in which they engage, learning from comparative assessments of scenario products has been rather limited; the latter due to the limited time and resources invested in comparative analysis. Pitcher (2009) speaks

  11. Towards an Integrated Assessment Model for Tropospheric Ozone-Emission Inventories, Scenarios and Emission-control Options

    OpenAIRE

    Olsthoorn, X.

    1994-01-01

    IIASA intends to extend its RAINS model for addressing the issue of transboundary ozone air pollution. This requires the development of a VOC-emissions module, VOCs being precursors in ozone formation. The module should contain a Europe-wide emission inventory, a submodule for developing emission scenarios and a database of measures for VOC-emission control, including data about control effectiveness and control costs. It is recommended to use the forthcoming CORINAIR90 inventory for construc...

  12. Regional Issue Identification and Assessment program (RIIA). Environmental impacts and issues of the EIA MID-MID scenario: Federal Region I (New England)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The impacts described here for 1985 and 1990 are based on a national energy projection which assumes medium energy demand and fuel supply through 1990 but does not incorporate the policies of the National Energy Act (NEA). This scenario, referred to as the Projection Series C or the TRENDLONG MID-MID scenario, is one of six possible energy futures developed by the DOE Energy Information Administration for the Department's 1977 Annual Report to Congress. It was chosen as representative of the official DOE national energy projections when this project was initiated, prior to the passage of the National Energy Act. Since the RIIA program is part of an ongoing review of the regional impact of energy policies, the next phase will examine the National Energy Act (NEA) and initiatives suggested by the President's second National Energy Plan. However, since coal utilization increases under the NEA, in general, impacts identified in the TRENDLONG Series C Scenario should provide a framework for the discussion of impacts by NEA. The environmental impacts discussed in this volume are for Federal Region I (Maine, Vermont, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Connecticut). However, there are nine companion volumes, one for each of the other Federal Regions

  13. No-reference sharpness assessment of camera-shaken images by analysis of spectral structure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oh, Taegeun; Park, Jincheol; Seshadrinathan, Kalpana; Lee, Sanghoon; Bovik, Alan Conrad

    2014-12-01

    The tremendous explosion of image-, video-, and audio-enabled mobile devices, such as tablets and smart-phones in recent years, has led to an associated dramatic increase in the volume of captured and distributed multimedia content. In particular, the number of digital photographs being captured annually is approaching 100 billion in just the U.S. These pictures are increasingly being acquired by inexperienced, casual users under highly diverse conditions leading to a plethora of distortions, including blur induced by camera shake. In order to be able to automatically detect, correct, or cull images impaired by shake-induced blur, it is necessary to develop distortion models specific to and suitable for assessing the sharpness of camera-shaken images. Toward this goal, we have developed a no-reference framework for automatically predicting the perceptual quality of camera-shaken images based on their spectral statistics. Two kinds of features are defined that capture blur induced by camera shake. One is a directional feature, which measures the variation of the image spectrum across orientations. The second feature captures the shape, area, and orientation of the spectral contours of camera shaken images. We demonstrate the performance of an algorithm derived from these features on new and existing databases of images distorted by camera shake. PMID:25350928

  14. Technology assessment of disposal alternatives to determine a reference geological repository system for HLW

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This study is to determine the most promising alternative, that will be developed further as a reference HLW repository system, by comparing the 7 alternatives that were proposed based on the spent fuel packaging options concerning the characteristics of spent PWR and CANDU fuel generated from the domestic NPP and the waste package arrangements and repository layout options. It should be determined by comparing the proposed alternatives from the aspects of technology, safety and economics. In this study, however, the comparison of alternatives was just based on the technology assessment because of the lack of the relevant information. The comparison criteria includes the degree of difficulty, development and maturity of the technology to be applied in repository system construction, operation, retrieval, etc. and the safety during the repository construction and operation. Based on such comparison criteria, the alternative comparison study was performed by a typical pair-wise comparison method. The result showed that, from the aspect of the construction, vertical emplacement options ranked high so that HSA and HCop ranked first and second, respectively. On the other hand, from the aspect of operation, the vertical emplacement options ranked high and VSA and VAT were ranked first and second. Depending upon the degree of importance of construction and operation of the repository, the final results of the alternatives comparison could be changed. (author). 19 refs., 6 tabs., 13 figs

  15. Use of internal references for assessing CT density measurements of the pelvis as replacement for use of an external phantom

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boomsma, Martijn F.; Slouwerhof, Inge; Dalen, Jorn A. van [Isala Hospital, Department of Radiology, Zwolle (Netherlands); Edens, Mireille A. [Isala Hospital, Department of Innovation and Science, Zwolle (Netherlands); Mueller, Dirk [Philips Healthcare systems, Hamburg (Germany); Milles, Julien [Philips Healthcare Benelux, Eindhoven (Netherlands); Maas, Mario [AMC, Department of Radiology, Amsterdam (Netherlands)

    2015-11-15

    The purpose of this research is to study the use of an internal reference standard for fat- and muscle as a replacement for an external reference standard with a phantom. By using a phantomless internal reference standard, Hounsfield unit (HU) measurements of various tissues can potentially be assessed in patients with a CT scan of the pelvis without an added phantom at time of CT acquisition. This paves the way for development of a tool for quantification of the change in tissue density in one patient over time and between patients. This could make every CT scan made without contrast available for research purposes. Fifty patients with unilateral metal-on-metal total hip replacements, scanned together with a calibration reference phantom used in bone mineral density measurements, were included in this study. On computed tomography scans of the pelvis without the use of intravenous iodine contrast, reference values for fat and muscle were measured in the phantom as well as within the patient's body. The conformity between the references was examined with the intra-class correlation coefficient. The mean HU (± SD) of reference values for fat for the internal- and phantom references were -91.5 (±7.0) and -90.9 (±7.8), respectively. For muscle, the mean HU (± SD) for the internal- and phantom references were 59.2 (±6.2) and 60.0 (±7.2), respectively. The intra-class correlation coefficients for fat and muscle were 0.90 and 0.84 respectively and show excellent agreement between the phantom and internal references. Internal references can be used with similar accuracy as references from an external phantom. There is no need to use an external phantom to asses CT density measurements of body tissue. (orig.)

  16. SCART guidelines. Reference report for IAEA Safety Culture Assessment Review Team (SCART)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The IAEA Director General stressed the role of safety culture in his concluding remarks at the Meeting of the Contracting Parties to the Convention on Nuclear Safety in 2002: 'As we have learned in other areas, it is not enough simply to have a structure; it is not enough to say that we have the necessary laws and the appropriate regulatory bodies. All these are important, but equally important is that we have in place a safety culture that gives effect to the structure that we have developed. To me, effectiveness and transparency are keys. So, it is an issue which I am pleased to see, you are giving the attention it deserves and we will continue to work with you in clarifying, developing and applying safety culture through our programmes and through our technical cooperation activities.' The concept of safety culture was initially developed by the International Nuclear Safety Advisory Group (INSAG) after the Chernobyl accident in 1986. Since then the IAEA's perspective of safety culture has expanded with time as its recognition of the complexities of the concept developed. Safety culture is considered to be specific organizational culture in all types of organizations with activities that give rise to radiation risks. The aim is to make safety culture strong and sustainable, so that safety becomes a primary focus for all activities in such organizations, even for those, which might not look safety-related at first. SCART (Safety Culture Assessment Review Team) is a safety review service, which reflects the expressed interest of Members States for methods and tools for safety culture assessment. It is a replacement for the earlier service ASCOT (Assessment of Safety Culture in Organizations Team). The IAEA Safety Fundamentals, Requirements and Guides (Safety Standards) are the basis for the SCART Safety Review Service. The reports of INSAG, identifying important current nuclear safety issues, serve also as references during a SCART mission. SCART missions are based

  17. Executive function impairment and recidivism in adult protective services clients referred for a decision making capacity assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terracina, Katherine A; Aamodt, Whitley W; Schillerstrom, Jason E

    2015-01-01

    The objective of this study was to determine if recidivistic Adult Protective Services (APS) cases referred for a decision-making capacity assessment were more cognitively impaired than nonrecidivistic cases. A retrospective medical record review of neuropsychological and demographic data was gathered during decisional capacity assessments. Recidivistic clients were those referred to APS more than once; those with a single open case were nonrecidivistic. Mean neuropsychological test scores were compared between recidivistic (n = 138) and nonrecidivistic (n = 95) subjects. No significant differences were found for age, gender, ethnicity, education, or dwelling status. Both recidivistic and nonrecidivistic cases performed poorly in all cognitive domains. Recidivistic clients performed significantly worse on measures of executive function (CLOX1, EXIT25). Executive function impairments seem to be one risk factor for recidivism in APS referrals. With 60% of cases referred for decision capacity assessments being recidivistic, identifying risk factors may help identify when targeted interventions are indicated to preclude recurrence of abuse. PMID:25495662

  18. Assessment of effectiveness of geologic isolation systems. Perspectives on the geological and hydrological aspects of long-term release scenario analyses

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stottlemyre, J.A.; Wallace, R.W.; Benson, G.L.; Zellmer, J.T.

    1980-06-01

    Information that may be relevant to individuals involved with analyzing long-term release scenarios of specific repositories for nuclear waste is presented. The bulk of the information is derived from recent studies in West Germany and the United States. Emphasis is on the specific geological and hydrological phenomena that, alone or in concert, could potentially perturb the area around specific repository sites. Research is continuing on most of the topics discussed within this report. Because research is ongoing, statements and conclusions described in this document are subject to change. The main topics of this report are: (1) fracturing, (2) geohydrology, (3) magmatic activity, and (4) geomorphology. Therefore, the site-specific nature of the problem cannot be overemphasized. As an example of how one might combine the many synergistic and time-dependent parameters into a concise format the reader is referred to A Conceputal Simulation Model for Release Scenario Analysis of a Hypothetical Site in Columbia Plateau Basalts, PNL-2892. For additional details on the topics in this report, the reader is referred to the Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) consultant report listed in the bibliography.

  19. Scenarios selection for a simple concept landfill

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scenarios are used to deal with uncertainty on the evolution of complex systems. The scenario selection methodologies also have to provide a basis for reflexion and traceability of the reasoning. A scenario selection method has been developed for the case of disposal of uranium mill tailings in a landfill site. In the case of a simple concept landfill, a methodology that fulfils these requirements has been developed. It distinguishes on the one hand the landfill evolution, and on the other hand, the human behavior evolution. It is based on three steps: (i) characterization of the landfill itself, in order to define situations leading to releases of radionuclides, (ii) characterization of the human behavior in order to define situations leading to intrusions, and (iii) characterization of the interfaces between the two subsystems, in order to identify situations which could lead to a radiological risk for man. The method, applied to performance assessment for landfill of uranium mill tailings, has led to one reference scenario, and five altered scenarios taking into account specific landfill evolutions such as loss of covering or loss of integrity of the dike, and human intrusions such as housing on the site of landfill or excavation of the site. Copyright (2001) Material Research Society

  20. Scenario-based tsunami risk assessment using a static flooding approach and high-resolution digital elevation data: An example from Muscat in Oman

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schneider, Bastian; Hoffmann, Gösta; Reicherter, Klaus

    2016-04-01

    Knowledge of tsunami risk and vulnerability is essential to establish a well-adapted Multi Hazard Early Warning System, land-use planning and emergency management. As the tsunami risk for the coastline of Oman is still under discussion and remains enigmatic, various scenarios based on historical tsunamis were created. The suggested inundation and run-up heights were projected onto the modern infrastructural setting of the Muscat Capital Area. Furthermore, possible impacts of the worst-case tsunami event for Muscat are discussed. The approved Papathoma Tsunami Vulnerability Assessment Model was used to model the structural vulnerability of the infrastructure for a 2 m tsunami scenario, depicting the 1945 tsunami and a 5 m tsunami in Muscat. Considering structural vulnerability, the results suggest a minor tsunami risk for the 2 m tsunami scenario as the flooding is mainly confined to beaches and wadis. Especially traditional brick buildings, still predominant in numerous rural suburbs, and a prevalently coast-parallel road network lead to an increased tsunami risk. In contrast, the 5 m tsunami scenario reveals extensively inundated areas and with up to 48% of the buildings flooded, and therefore consequently a significantly higher tsunami risk. We expect up to 60000 damaged buildings and up to 380000 residents directly affected in the Muscat Capital Area, accompanied with a significant loss of life and damage to vital infrastructure. The rapid urbanization processes in the Muscat Capital Area, predominantly in areas along the coast, in combination with infrastructural, demographic and economic growth will additionally increase the tsunami risk and therefore emphasizes the importance of tsunami risk assessment in Oman.

  1. Assessment of neutral particle analysis abilities to measure the plasma hydrogen isotope composition in ITER burning scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The main object of the neutral particle analysis (NPA) on ITER is to measure the hydrogen isotope composition of the plasma using measurements of the neutralized fluxes of the corresponding hydrogen ions. In burning scenarios the reliable on-line measurements of the tritium/deuterium (T/D) density ratio stands out as the most important application of the diagnostics. This paper presents the results of the error analysis of the NPA signals for ‘official’ ITER burning scenarios—inductive and steady state. The goal of the study is to find the range of values of T/D density ratio, where NPA measurements meet the ITER requirements specified for this parameter, i.e. 10% of accuracy and time resolution equal to 0.1 s. This analysis takes into account both the statistics of the particle counts detected by NPA and of the noise counts induced in NPA detectors by neutrons and gammas. The calibration errors and errors of the external plasma parameters, used in the interpretation of NPA data, are also accounted. The results of the study for low (20–200 keV) and high (200 keV–2 MeV) energy ranges of the D and T neutral fluxes are discussed. It was shown that in the inductive scenario NPA can provide the required accuracy of the T/D density ratio measurement if the plasma composition varies within 0.2–10 (edge measurements) and 0.15–10 (core measurements). In the steady-state scenario these ranges are 0.01–10 (edge measurements) and 0.07–7 (core measurements). (paper)

  2. Spatial, temporal and frequency based climate change assessment in Columbia River Basin using multi downscaled-scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rana, Arun; Moradkhani, Hamid

    2016-07-01

    Uncertainties in climate modelling are well documented in literature. Global Climate Models (GCMs) are often used to downscale the climatic parameters on a regional scale. In the present work, we have analyzed the changes in precipitation and temperature for future scenario period of 2070-2099 with respect to historical period of 1970-2000 from statistically downscaled GCM projections in Columbia River Basin (CRB). Analysis is performed using two different statistically downscaled climate projections (with ten GCMs downscaled products each, for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, from CMIP5 dataset) namely, those from the Bias Correction and Spatial Downscaling (BCSD) technique generated at Portland State University and from the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) technique, generated at University of Idaho, totaling to 40 different scenarios. The two datasets for BCSD and MACA are downscaled from observed data for both scenarios projections i.e. RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Analysis is performed using spatial change (yearly scale), temporal change (monthly scale), percentile change (seasonal scale), quantile change (yearly scale), and wavelet analysis (yearly scale) in the future period from the historical period, respectively, at a scale of 1/16th of degree for entire CRB region. Results have indicated in varied degree of spatial change pattern for the entire Columbia River Basin, especially western part of the basin. At temporal scales, winter precipitation has higher variability than summer and vice versa for temperature. Most of the models have indicated considerate positive change in quantiles and percentiles for both precipitation and temperature. Wavelet analysis provided insights into possible explanation to changes in precipitation.

  3. Women referred for occupational risk assessment in pregnancy have no increased risk of adverse obstetric outcomes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bidstrup, Signe Brøker; Kaerlev, Linda; Thulstrup, Ane Marie;

    2015-01-01

    pregnant women referred to two Danish clinics of occupational medicine (Copenhagen and Aarhus) from 1984 to 2010 were compared with the referred women's 1,077 non-referred pregnancy outcomes and with the pregnancy outcomes of 345,467 gainfully employed women from the same geographical areas and time period....... Logistic regression was used to calculate odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Calculations were adjusted for the mother's age at delivery, parity, ethnicity, socioeconomic status, smoking, and in supplementary analyses for year of birth. RESULTS: Referred women gave birth to children...

  4. Toward a No-Reference Image Quality Assessment Using Statistics of Perceptual Color Descriptors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Dohyoung; Plataniotis, Konstantinos N

    2016-08-01

    Analysis of the statistical properties of natural images has played a vital role in the design of no-reference (NR) image quality assessment (IQA) techniques. In this paper, we propose parametric models describing the general characteristics of chromatic data in natural images. They provide informative cues for quantifying visual discomfort caused by the presence of chromatic image distortions. The established models capture the correlation of chromatic data between spatially adjacent pixels by means of color invariance descriptors. The use of color invariance descriptors is inspired by their relevance to visual perception, since they provide less sensitive descriptions of image scenes against viewing geometry and illumination variations than luminances. In order to approximate the visual quality perception of chromatic distortions, we devise four parametric models derived from invariance descriptors representing independent aspects of color perception: 1) hue; 2) saturation; 3) opponent angle; and 4) spherical angle. The practical utility of the proposed models is examined by deploying them in our new general-purpose NR IQA metric. The metric initially estimates the parameters of the proposed chromatic models from an input image to constitute a collection of quality-aware features (QAF). Thereafter, a machine learning technique is applied to predict visual quality given a set of extracted QAFs. Experimentation performed on large-scale image databases demonstrates that the proposed metric correlates well with the provided subjective ratings of image quality over commonly encountered achromatic and chromatic distortions, indicating that it can be deployed on a wide variety of color image processing problems as a generalized IQA solution. PMID:27305678

  5. Hybrid III Lower Leg Injury Assessment Reference Curves Under Axial Impacts Using Matched-Pair Tests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoganandan, Narayan; Pintar, Frank; Banerjee, Anjishnu; Schlick, Michael; Chirvi, Sajal; Uppal, Hermeeth; Merkle, Andrew; Voo, Liming; Kleinberg, Michael

    2015-01-01

    The objective of the present study was to derive injury probability curves applicable to the Hybrid III dummy (also termed the Anthropomorphic Test Device, ATD) lower leg under axial impacts for military applications. A matched-pair approach was used. Axial impacts were delivered to below knee foot-ankle complex preparations of the lower leg of the ATD using pendulum and custom vertical accelerator devices. Military boot was used in some tests. Post mortem human surrogate (PMHS) preparations were used as matched-pair tests for injury outcomes. The alignment was such that the foot-ankle complex was orthogonal to the leg (below knee tibia-fibula complex), termed as the normal 90-90 posture. Injury outcomes from the biological surrogate focused on calcaneus and or distal tibia fractures with or without the involvement of articular surfaces. Peak lower tibia load cell forces were obtained from matched-pair dummy tests. Injury and force data were paired, censoring was assigned based on injury outcomes and survival analysis was done using the Weibull distribution to derive dummy-based probability curves. Mean peak forces were extracted at 5, 10, 20 and 50% probability levels. Normalized confidence interval sizes (NCIS) at ± 95% level were computed to determine the tightness-of-fit of the confidence bands. The NCIS data ranged from 0.34 to 0.78 and a peak force of 8.2 kN was associated at the ten percent injury probability level. Other data and curves are given in the body of the paper. The present Injury Assessment Reference Curves and Values (IARC and IARV) may be used in future tests for advancing safety in military environments. These survival analysis processes and IARC and IARV data may also be used in other applications. PMID:25996722

  6. Assessment of Children Referred for Evaluation of School Difficulties Who Have Adequate Academic Achievement Scores.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morgan, Allison E.; Singer-Harris, Naomi; Bernstein, Jane H.; Waber, Deborah P.

    2000-01-01

    Forty children (ages 7-11) referred for evaluation of learning problems, who had normal scores on measures of academic achievement, were compared to 81 similarly referred children who had scored low. Children with normal achievement scores had higher IQs and better decoding skills, however, the two groups showed similar neuropsychological…

  7. Human response to simulated airport noise scenarios in home-like environments

    OpenAIRE

    Lambert, Jacques; Champelovier, Patricia; BLANCHET, Régis; Lavandier, Catherine; Terroir, Jonathan; MARKI, C; GRIEFAHN, B; IEMMA, A; JANSSENS, Karl; BISPING, Rudolf

    2015-01-01

    his research is part of a FP7 project supported by the European Commission called 'Community oriented solutions to minimize aircraft noise annoyance' (COSMA). The present paper focuses on the development and the application of a methodology for the assessment of changes in airport noise exposure in home- like environments, particularly the design of sound scenarios and of experiments. Two airport noise changes are assessed and compared to a reference scenario: a halving of the number of aircr...

  8. Role Assessment of GIS Analysis and its Reliability while Ranking Urban Sustainability Using Scenarios Specific to Regional Climate, Community and Culture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salmi, H. Al; Abdulmuttalib, H. M.

    2012-07-01

    Urban Sustainability expresses the level of conservation of a city while living a town or consuming its urban resources, but the measurement of urban sustainability depends on what are considered important indicators of conservation besides the permitted levels of consumption in accordance with adopted criteria. This criterion should have common factors that are shared for all the members tested or cities to be evaluated as in this particular case for Abu Dhabi, but also have specific factors that are related to the geographic place, community and culture, that is the measures of urban sustainability specific to a middle east climate, community and culture where GIS Vector and Raster analysis have a role or add a value in urban sustainability measurements or grading are considered herein. Scenarios were tested using various GIS data types to replicate urban history (ten years period), current status and expected future of Abu Dhabi City setting factors to climate, community needs and culture. The useful Vector or Raster GIS data sets that are related to every scenario where selected and analysed in the sense of how and how much it can benefit the urban sustainability ranking in quantity and quality tests, this besides assessing the suitable data nature, type and format, the important topology rules to be considered, the useful attributes to be added, the relationships which should be maintained between data types of a geo- database, and specify its usage in a specific scenario test, then setting weights to each and every data type representing some elements of a phenomenon related to urban suitability factor. The results of assessing the role of GIS analysis provided data collection specifications such as the measures of accuracy reliable to a certain type of GIS functional analysis used in an urban sustainability ranking scenario tests. This paper reflects the prior results of the research that is conducted to test the multidiscipline evaluation of urban

  9. ROLE ASSESSMENT OF GIS ANALYSIS AND ITS RELIABILITY WHILE RANKING URBAN SUSTAINABILITY USING SCENARIOS SPECIFIC TO REGIONAL CLIMATE, COMMUNITY AND CULTURE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Al Salmi

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Urban Sustainability expresses the level of conservation of a city while living a town or consuming its urban resources, but the measurement of urban sustainability depends on what are considered important indicators of conservation besides the permitted levels of consumption in accordance with adopted criteria. This criterion should have common factors that are shared for all the members tested or cities to be evaluated as in this particular case for Abu Dhabi, but also have specific factors that are related to the geographic place, community and culture, that is the measures of urban sustainability specific to a middle east climate, community and culture where GIS Vector and Raster analysis have a role or add a value in urban sustainability measurements or grading are considered herein. Scenarios were tested using various GIS data types to replicate urban history (ten years period, current status and expected future of Abu Dhabi City setting factors to climate, community needs and culture. The useful Vector or Raster GIS data sets that are related to every scenario where selected and analysed in the sense of how and how much it can benefit the urban sustainability ranking in quantity and quality tests, this besides assessing the suitable data nature, type and format, the important topology rules to be considered, the useful attributes to be added, the relationships which should be maintained between data types of a geo- database, and specify its usage in a specific scenario test, then setting weights to each and every data type representing some elements of a phenomenon related to urban suitability factor. The results of assessing the role of GIS analysis provided data collection specifications such as the measures of accuracy reliable to a certain type of GIS functional analysis used in an urban sustainability ranking scenario tests. This paper reflects the prior results of the research that is conducted to test the multidiscipline evaluation

  10. Landslide hazard scenario assessment at a large spatio-temporal scale: the case of a municipality in the Getic Subcarpathians, Romania

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jurchescu, Marta; Dragota, Carmen; Borcan, Mihaela

    2014-05-01

    Performing a landslide hazard assessment requires both a spatial and a temporal-probabilistic modelling of landslide occurrence. Nevertheless, most landslide 'hazard' maps only present the zoning of susceptibility (i.e. spatial probability) without including information on the temporal component of the hazard. One of the difficulties in estimating temporal probabilities of landslides lies in identifying frequency-magnitude relationships for landslide occurrences since historical landslide records are usually incomplete. However, even in scarce data conditions, the possibility remains to address recent occurences of landslides that can be related to particular triggering events (e.g. earthquake, rainfall). The present paper proposes to produce a landslide hazard scenario, claiming that by analysing more particular frequency-magnitude relationships and developing hazard scenarios, the assessment of a general landslide hazard map could be more easily envisaged in future. The study is part of a top-down approach, which, in a previous phase, has completed a regional scale (1:100,000) semi-quantitative susceptibility assessment of a wider administrative unit in southern Romania (the Vâlcea county), constantly under the threat of landslides. Based on the landslide hotspots provided by this synoptic map, the case of a municipality in the Subcarpathian hills was selected for perfoming a much more detailed hazard scenario assessment, i.e. at a large scale (1:10,000 spatial scale and daily temporal scale). A first stage of the present study aims at zoning the terrain in terms of spatial probabilities of landslide occurrence by statistically analysing the relation between inventoried landslides and several predisposing factors. Considering the large scale of analysis, a special focus was given to predicting areas probable to generate landslides and thus only the mapped depletion zones were entered into the analysis. Moreover, in order to correctly reflect causal relations, a

  11. Environmental impact assessment and monetary ecosystem service valuation of an ecosystem under different future environmental change and management scenarios; a case study of a Scots pine forest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaubroeck, Thomas; Deckmyn, Gaby; Giot, Olivier; Campioli, Matteo; Vanpoucke, Charlotte; Verheyen, Kris; Rugani, Benedetto; Achten, Wouter; Verbeeck, Hans; Dewulf, Jo; Muys, Bart

    2016-05-15

    For a sustainable future, we must sustainably manage not only the human/industrial system but also ecosystems. To achieve the latter goal, we need to predict the responses of ecosystems and their provided services to management practices under changing environmental conditions via ecosystem models and use tools to compare the estimated provided services between the different scenarios. However, scientific articles have covered a limited amount of estimated ecosystem services and have used tools to aggregate services that contain a significant amount of subjective aspects and that represent the final result in a non-tangible unit such as 'points'. To resolve these matters, this study quantifies the environmental impact (on human health, natural systems and natural resources) in physical units and uses an ecosystem service valuation based on monetary values (including ecosystem disservices with associated negative monetary values). More specifically, the paper also focuses on the assessment of ecosystem services related to pollutant removal/generation flows, accounting for the inflow of eutrophying nitrogen (N) when assessing the effect of N leached to groundwater. Regarding water use/provisioning, evapotranspiration is alternatively considered a disservice because it implies a loss of (potential) groundwater. These approaches and improvements, relevant to all ecosystems, are demonstrated using a Scots pine stand from 2010 to 2089 for a combination of three environmental change and three management scenarios. The environmental change scenarios considered interannual climate variability trends and included alterations in temperature, precipitation, nitrogen deposition, wind speed, Particulate matter (PM) concentration and CO2 concentration. The addressed flows/ecosystem services, including disservices, are as follows: particulate matter removal, freshwater loss, CO2 sequestration, wood production, NOx emissions, NH3 uptake and nitrogen pollution/removal. The monetary

  12. Numerical assessment of non-uniform corrosion scenarios of rebar in concrete exposed to natural chloride environment

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    S Muthulingam; B N Rao

    2015-06-01

    Corrosion of embedded rebars is a classical deterioration mechanism that remains as one of the most significant problems limiting the service life of concrete structures exposed to chloride-laden environments. The primary objective of this study is to propose and verify a numerical framework that can efficiently quantify non-uniform corrosion penetration depth along the perimeter of the rebar in concrete exposed to chloride environment. This framework investigates the corrosion process during both the corrosion initiation and propagation phases by exploring the effects of not only the rebar existence but also its sizes and locations. The corrosion initiation phase is examined through a comprehensive chloride ingress model that identifies the most important parameters that influence the intrusion of chlorides into RC. The corrosion propagation phase is studied based on a decisive parameter, namely, the corrosion rate. In addition, the framework evaluates the non-uniform corrosion states that correspond to two scenarios of corrosion penetration depth: corrosion of segment of the rebar and uneven corrosion along the rebar perimeter. Numerical solution shows that, in general, chloride build-up along the perimeter of the corner bar is not only faster but also higher than that of the middle bar. Moreover, for the given values of cover thickness and water-to-binder ratio, time-to-corrosion initiation for the corner bar is faster than that for the middle bar. Furthermore, the larger the rebar, in general, the bigger the obstruction, and therefore, the higher the chloride build-up. Qualitative comparisons of the evaluated non-uniform corrosion scenarios with the variety of available laboratory and field data show good agreement.

  13. Basis for the development of a scenario for ground water risk assessment of plant protection products to banana crop in the frame work of regulation 1107/2009

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alonso-Prados, Elena; Fernández-Getino, Ana Patricia; Alonso-Prados, Jose Luis

    2014-05-01

    The risk assessment to ground water of pesticides and their main metabolites is a data requirement under regulation 1107/2009, concerning the placing of plant protection products on the market. Predicted environmental concentrations (PEC) are calculated according to the recommendations of Forum for the Co-ordination of pesticide fate models and Their Use (FOCUS). The FOCUS groundwater working group developed scenarios for the main crops in European Union. However there are several crops which grow under specific agro-environmental conditions not covered by these scenarios and it is frequent to use the defined scenarios as surrogates. This practice adds an uncertainty factor in the risk assessment. One example is represented by banana crop which in Europe is limited to sub-tropical environmental conditions and with specific agronomic practices. The Canary Islands concentrates the higher production of banana in the European Union characterized by volcanic soils. Banana is located at low altitudes where soils have been eroded or degraded, and it is a common practice to transport soil materials from the high-mid altitudes to the low lands for cultivation. These cultivation plots are locally named "sorribas". These volcanic soils, classified as Andosols according to the FAO classification, have special physico-chemical properties due to noncrystalline materials and layer silicates. The good stability of these soils and their high permeability to water make them relatively resistant to water erosion. Physical properties of volcanic clayey soils are strongly affected by allophone and Fe and Al oxyhidroxides. The rapid weathering of porous volcanic material results in accumulation of stable organo-mineral complexes and short-range-order mineral such as allophane, imogolite and ferrihydrite. These components induce strong aggregation that partly favors properties such as: reduced swelling, increased aggregate stability of clay minerals, high soil water retention capacity

  14. Assessing concentrations and health impacts of air quality management strategies: Framework for Rapid Emissions Scenario and Health impact ESTimation (FRESH-EST).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milando, Chad W; Martenies, Sheena E; Batterman, Stuart A

    2016-09-01

    In air quality management, reducing emissions from pollutant sources often forms the primary response to attaining air quality standards and guidelines. Despite the broad success of air quality management in the US, challenges remain. As examples: allocating emissions reductions among multiple sources is complex and can require many rounds of negotiation; health impacts associated with emissions, the ultimate driver for the standards, are not explicitly assessed; and long dispersion model run-times, which result from the increasing size and complexity of model inputs, limit the number of scenarios that can be evaluated, thus increasing the likelihood of missing an optimal strategy. A new modeling framework, called the "Framework for Rapid Emissions Scenario and Health impact ESTimation" (FRESH-EST), is presented to respond to these challenges. FRESH-EST estimates concentrations and health impacts of alternative emissions scenarios at the urban scale, providing efficient computations from emissions to health impacts at the Census block or other desired spatial scale. In addition, FRESH-EST can optimize emission reductions to meet specified environmental and health constraints, and a convenient user interface and graphical displays are provided to facilitate scenario evaluation. The new framework is demonstrated in an SO2 non-attainment area in southeast Michigan with two optimization strategies: the first minimizes emission reductions needed to achieve a target concentration; the second minimizes concentrations while holding constant the cumulative emissions across local sources (e.g., an emissions floor). The optimized strategies match outcomes in the proposed SO2 State Implementation Plan without the proposed stack parameter modifications or shutdowns. In addition, the lower health impacts estimated for these strategies suggest that FRESH-EST could be used to identify potentially more desirable pollution control alternatives in air quality management planning.

  15. Role Assessment of GIS Analysis and its Reliability while Ranking Urban Sustainability Using Scenarios Specific to Regional Climate, Community and Culture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salmi, H. Al; Abdulmuttalib, H. M.

    2012-07-01

    Urban Sustainability expresses the level of conservation of a city while living a town or consuming its urban resources, but the measurement of urban sustainability depends on what are considered important indicators of conservation besides the permitted levels of consumption in accordance with adopted criteria. This criterion should have common factors that are shared for all the members tested or cities to be evaluated as in this particular case for Abu Dhabi, but also have specific factors that are related to the geographic place, community and culture, that is the measures of urban sustainability specific to a middle east climate, community and culture where GIS Vector and Raster analysis have a role or add a value in urban sustainability measurements or grading are considered herein. Scenarios were tested using various GIS data types to replicate urban history (ten years period), current status and expected future of Abu Dhabi City setting factors to climate, community needs and culture. The useful Vector or Raster GIS data sets that are related to every scenario where selected and analysed in the sense of how and how much it can benefit the urban sustainability ranking in quantity and quality tests, this besides assessing the suitable data nature, type and format, the important topology rules to be considered, the useful attributes to be added, the relationships which should be maintained between data types of a geo- database, and specify its usage in a specific scenario test, then setting weights to each and every data type representing some elements of a phenomenon related to urban suitability factor. The results of assessing the role of GIS analysis provided data collection specifications such as the measures of accuracy reliable to a certain type of GIS functional analysis used in an urban sustainability ranking scenario tests. This paper reflects the prior results of the research that is conducted to test the multidiscipline evaluation of urban

  16. Reference intervals for platelet aggregation assessed by multiple electrode platelet aggregometry

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rubak, Peter; Villadsen, Kirsten; Hvas, Anne-Mette

    2012-01-01

    Abstract Introduction Analyses of platelet aggregation in hirudin whole blood using Multiplate® was validated. Reference intervals for the most commonly used agonists were established, and the association between platelet aggregation, age, gender and haematological values was analysed. Material...

  17. A Danish reference chart for assessment of psychomotor development based on the Ages & Stages Questionnaire

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Østergaard, Katrine Kure; Lando, Ane Vibeke; Hansen, Bo Mølholm;

    2012-01-01

    The aim of this study was to obtain Ages and Stages Questionnaire (ASQ) scores from the background population so that these may be used as a reference group to extremely preterm children at nine and 18 months of corrected age....

  18. Determination of dose to patient in different teams of TC and assessment with international reference levels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The increase in CT studies and the differences observed between the different equipment used in our hospital prompted us to determine the doses to patients in different studies and check the results obtained with the reference values published internationally. (Author)

  19. Selecting reference concentrations for fish biliary PAH metabolites for stream ecological exposure assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reference concentrations for two types of biliary PAH metabolites were empirically determined for two species of fish. Bile from white sucker and common carp were collected from streams in Ohio having poor to excellent condition based on a modified index of biotic integrity (MIBI). PAH were measured using fixed wavelength fluorescence with excitation/emission pairs at 290/335 nm for naphthalene-type (NAPH) and 380/430 nm for benzo[a]pyrene-type (B[a]P) metabolites. Exposures to PAH were estimated for petroleum sources with NAPH and from combustion sources with B[a]P. Three criteria were used to select reference concentrations. Site criteria were: an MIBI score of at least 30, relatively low median values of biliary PAH concentration, and low statistical variation. The median reference values selected were 0.5 microg B[a]P/mg protein and 50 pg NAPH/mg protein for white sucker and 0.5 microg B[a]P/mg protein and 90 microg NAPH/mg protein for common carp. Of the 28 sites sampled with white sucker in 1993, 68% exceeded the reference value for NAPH and 32% for B[a]P. Of the 22 sites sampled with carp, 68% exceeded the value for NAPH and 41% for B[a]P. Likewise, more sites with MIBI scores between 30 and 60 exceeded the NAPH reference than the B[a]P reference concentration

  20. Selecting reference concentrations for fish biliary PAH metabolites for stream ecological exposure assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reference concentrations for two types of biliary polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) metabolites were empirically determined for two species of fish. Bile from white sucker and common carp were collected from streams in Ohio having poor to excellent conditions based on a modified index of biotic integrity (mIBI). PAH were measured using fixed wavelength fluorescence with excitation/emission pairs at 290/335 nm for naphthalene-type (NAPH) and 380/430 nm for benzo[a]pyrene-type (B[a]P) metabolites. Exposures to PAH's were estimated for petroleum sources with NAPH and from combustion sources with B[a]P. Three criteria were used to select reference concentrations. Site criteria were: an mIBI score of at least 30; relatively low median values of biliary PAH concentration; and low statistical variation. The median reference values selected were 0.5 microg B[a]P/mg protein and 50 microg NAPH/mg protein for white suckers and 0.5 microg B[a]P/mg protein and 90 microg NAPH/mg protein for common carp. Of the 28 sites sampled with white sucker in 1993, 68% exceeded the reference value for NAPH and 32% for B[a]P. Of the 22 sites sampled with carp, 68% exceeded the value for NAPH and 41% for B[a]P. Likewise, more sites with mIBI scores between 30 and 60 exceeded the NAPH reference than the B[a]P reference concentration

  1. An integrated exposure assessment of phthalates for the general population in China based on both exposure scenario and biomonitoring estimation approaches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, Yan; Liu, Jianguo; Liu, Yang; Wang, Jie; Hao, Xuewen

    2016-02-01

    The representativeness of available studies on integrated exposure assessment of phthalates for the general population in China is lacking. Based on an exhaustive review of the extensive monitoring data available for China, this study presents a large-scale estimation of exposure levels to three typical phthalates, di(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate (DEHP), di-n-butyl phthalate (DBP) and diisobutyl phthalate (DiBP), by applying both exposure scenario and biomonitoring estimation approaches. The respective median exposure levels from the exposure scenario and biomonitoring estimation approaches were 3.80, 3.02 and 1.00 μg/kg bw/day and 3.38, 3.21 and 3.32 μg/kg bw/day for DEHP, DBP and DiBP, which are acceptable levels of exposure with respect to current international guidelines. Evaluation results from the two approaches showed both similarities and differences among the different phthalates, making the exposure assessment comparable and more comprehensive. In terms of sources of exposure, food intake was the largest contributor, while indoor air exposure had greater contribution to the estimated daily intakes (EDIs) of DiBP than that of the other phthalates. Moreover, more attention should be paid to the higher exposure levels of phthalates in several intensively industrialized and urbanized areas, and the causes of the different exposure levels in the different regions need to be further explored.

  2. Hybrid integral-differential simulator of EM force interactions/scenario-assessment tool with pre-computed influence matrix in applications to ITER

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rozov, V.; Alekseev, A.

    2015-08-01

    A necessity to address a wide spectrum of engineering problems in ITER determined the need for efficient tools for modeling of the magnetic environment and force interactions between the main components of the magnet system. The assessment of the operating window for the machine, determined by the electro-magnetic (EM) forces, and the check of feasibility of particular scenarios play an important role for ensuring the safety of exploitation. Such analysis-powered prevention of damages forms an element of the Machine Operations and Investment Protection strategy. The corresponding analysis is a necessary step in preparation of the commissioning, which finalizes the construction phase. It shall be supported by the development of the efficient and robust simulators and multi-physics/multi-system integration of models. The developed numerical model of interactions in the ITER magnetic system, based on the use of pre-computed influence matrices, facilitated immediate and complete assessment and systematic specification of EM loads on magnets in all foreseen operating regimes, their maximum values, envelopes and the most critical scenarios. The common principles of interaction in typical bilateral configurations have been generalized for asymmetry conditions, inspired by the plasma and by the hardware, including asymmetric plasma event and magnetic system fault cases. The specification of loads is supported by the technology of functional approximation of nodal and distributed data by continuous patterns/analytical interpolants. The global model of interactions together with the mesh-independent analytical format of output provides the source of self-consistent and transferable data on the spatial distribution of the system of forces for assessments of structural performance of the components, assemblies and supporting structures. The numerical model used is fully parametrized, which makes it very suitable for multi-variant and sensitivity studies (positioning, off

  3. Usability Assessment of International Office Website of Diponegoro University With Scenario Based Usability Evaluation Method and Wammi Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ratna Purwaningsih

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Website development needs to pay attention to usability aspect which consist of four factors: efficiency, effectiveness, satisfactions and error rate. The website of International Office of Diponegoro University provides academic information for Indonesian students and foreign students. The website still has some problem, especially on searching certain information. This research aims to evaluate the design of the existing website and measures the usability. A well-designed website will help users to meet theirs needs and purposes. The methods used in this study are Scenario-Based End-User Evaluation and WAMMI (Website Analysis and Measurement Inventory. Users perform a number of task on the existing website and on the redesigned website and then provide feedback for each task they have done and fill a WAMMI questionnaire as a test of memorability. This questionnaire used to test users memory on access process of a page from the site. The results of the data processing of usability test show that redesigned website has better value than existing website on effectiveness, efficiency, memorability and error rate.

  4. Knowledge brokering on emissions modelling in Strategic Environmental Assessment of Estonian energy policy with special reference to the LEAP model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kuldna, Piret, E-mail: piret.kuldna@seit.ee [Stockholm Environment Institute Tallinn Centre, Lai 34, Tallinn 10133 (Estonia); Peterson, Kaja [Stockholm Environment Institute Tallinn Centre, Lai 34, Tallinn 10133 (Estonia); Kuhi-Thalfeldt, Reeli [Stockholm Environment Institute Tallinn Centre, Lai 34, Tallinn 10133 (Estonia); Tallinn University of Technology, Ehitajate tee 5, Tallinn 19086 (Estonia)

    2015-09-15

    Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) serves as a platform for bringing together researchers, policy developers and other stakeholders to evaluate and communicate significant environmental and socio-economic effects of policies, plans and programmes. Quantitative computer models can facilitate knowledge exchange between various parties that strive to use scientific findings to guide policy-making decisions. The process of facilitating knowledge generation and exchange, i.e. knowledge brokerage, has been increasingly explored, but there is not much evidence in the literature on how knowledge brokerage activities are used in full cycles of SEAs which employ quantitative models. We report on the SEA process of the national energy plan with reflections on where and how the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) model was used for knowledge brokerage on emissions modelling between researchers and policy developers. Our main suggestion is that applying a quantitative model not only in ex ante, but also ex post scenario modelling and associated impact assessment can facilitate systematic and inspiring knowledge exchange process on a policy problem and capacity building of participating actors. - Highlights: • We examine the knowledge brokering on emissions modelling between researchers and policy developers in a full cycle of SEA. • Knowledge exchange process can evolve at any modelling stage within SEA. • Ex post scenario modelling enables systematic knowledge exchange and learning on a policy problem.

  5. Worst-case scenario approach to the tsunami hazard assessment for the coastal areas between Augusta and Siracusa, eastern Sicily, Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armigliato, Alberto; Pagnoni, Gianluca; Zaniboni, Filippo; Tinti, Stefano

    2015-04-01

    The province of Siracusa encompasses a very long portion of the eastern Sicily coastline, ranging from the southern part of the Catania Gulf to the north down to the southern-eastern end of the island, known as Capo Passero. Within this domain, the area comprised between the towns of Augusta and Siracusa has been selected as one of the sites for the testing of innovative methods for tsunami hazard, vulnerability and risk assessment and reduction developed in the frame of the EU Project called ASTARTE - Assessment, STrategy And Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe (Grant 603839, 7th FP, ENV.2013.6.4-3). The selection was driven by two main reasons. First, the area was hit by at least seven tsunamis in the approximate time interval from 1600 BC to present, as can be deduced from historical catalogues and paleo-tsunami deposits analysis: the most famous are probably the 21 July 365, 4 February 1169, 11 January 1693 and 28 December 1908 tsunamis. Secondly, as a whole, the test site has a strong relevance from the industrial, commercial, military, historical and cultural points of view: here it is sufficient to mention the huge petrochemical pole in the Augusta bay and the listing of Siracusa as UNESCO World Heritage Site since 2005. This contribution deals with the tsunami hazard assessment for the Augusta-Siracusa area, approached through the worst-case credible scenario technique. We selected five main source areas: the choice is driven mainly by the already mentioned fact that historical catalogues and paleo-tsunami studies tell us that the area under investigation can be impacted by tsunamis generated both in the near-field and in the far-field. The five areas include the Hyblaean-Malta escarpment and the Messina Straits in the near-field, the western and eastern lobes of the Ionian subduction zone in the intermediate field, and the western Hellenic Trench in the far-field. In each source area, a selection of possible faults was made, whose characteristics and

  6. Waste Isolation Safety Assessment Program scenario analysis methods for use in assessing the safety of the geologic isolation of nuclear waste

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The relative utility of the various safety analysis methods to scenario analysis for a repository system was evaluated by judging the degree to which certain criteria are satisfied by use of the method. Six safety analysis methods were reviewed in this report for possible use in scenario analysis of nuclear waste repositories: expert opinion, perspectives analysis, fault trees/event trees, Monte Carlo simulation, Markov chains, and classical systems analysis. Four criteria have been selected. The criteria suggest that the methods: (1) be quantitative and scientifically based; (2) model the potential disruptive events and processes, (3) model the system before and after failure (sufficiently detailed to provide for subsequent consequence analysis); and (4) be compatible with the level of available system knowledge and data. Expert opinion, fault trees/event trees, Monte Carlo simulation and classical systems analysis were judged to have the greatest potential appliation to the problem of scenario analysis. The methods were found to be constrained by limited data and by knowledge of the processes governing the system. It was determined that no single method is clearly superior to others when measured against all the criteria. Therefore, to get the best understanding of system behavior, a combination of the methods is recommended. Monte Carlo simulation was judged to be the most suitable matrix in which to incorporate a combination of methods

  7. Assessment of the impact of the greenhouse gas emission and sink scenarios in Finland on radiative forcing and greenhouse effect

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Savolainen, I.; Sinisalo, J.; Pipatti, R. [Technical Research Centre of Finland, Espoo (Finland)

    1996-12-31

    The objective of this work is to study greenhouse gas emissions and sinks and their greenhouse impact as a function of time. The greenhouse impact is expressed in terms of global average radiative forcing, which measures the perturbation in the Earth`s radiation budget. Radiative forcing is calculated on the basis of the concentration changes of the greenhouse gases and the radiation absorption properties of the gases. It takes into account the relatively slow changes in the concentrations due to natural removal and transformation processes and also allows a comparison of the impact of various greenhouse gases and their possible control options as a function of time. In addition to the applications mentioned above, the anthropogenic greenhouse gas emission histories of Nordic countries have been estimated, and the radiative forcing caused by them has been calculated with REFUGE. The dynamic impact of aerosol emissions both from the global point of view and in the context of different energy sources (coal, oil and natural gas) have also been studied. In some instances the caused radiative forcing has been examined on a per capita basis. The radiative forcing calculations contain considerable uncertainty due to inaccurately known factors at several stages of the calculation (emission estimation, concentration calculation and radiative forcing calculation). The total uncertainty of the results is typically on the order of +- 40 %, when absolute values are used. If the results are used in a relative way, e.g. to compare the impacts of different scenarios, the final uncertainty is considerably less (typically + 10 %), due to correlations in almost all stages of the calculation process

  8. System and scenario choices in the life cycle assessment of a building – changing impacts of the environmental profile

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Freja; Birgisdóttir, Harpa; Birkved, Morten

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a life cycle assessment (LCA) case study of an office building. The case study investigates how the setting of free parameters (adopted from the CEN/TC 350 standards) influences the results of the building’s LCA in the DGNB certification scheme for sustainable buildings...

  9. Subjective memory ability and long-term forgetting in patients referred for neuropsychological assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Werf, S.P. van der; Geurts, S.; Werd, M.M.E. de

    2016-01-01

    It has been suggested that the memory complaints of patients who are not impaired on formal memory tests may reflect accelerated forgetting. We examined this hypothesis by comparing the 1-week delayed recall and recognition test performance of outpatients who were referred for neuropsychological ass

  10. Normalized mean shapes and reference index values for computerized quantitative assessment indices of chest wall deformities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Ho Chul; Park, Man Sik; Lee, Seong Keon; Nam, Ki Chang; Park, Hyung Joo; Kim, Min Gi; Song, Jae-Jun; Choi, Hyuk

    2015-11-01

    We previously proposed a computerized index (eccentricity index [EI]) for chest-wall deformity measurements, such as pectus excavatum. We sought to define mean shapes based on normal chest walls and to propose for computerized index reference values of that are used in the quantitative analysis of the severity of chest-wall deformities. A total of 584 patients were classified into 18 groups, and a database of their chest-wall computed tomography (CT) scan images was constructed. The boundaries of the chest wall were extracted by using a segmentation algorithm, and the mean shapes were subsequently developed. The reference index values were calculated from the developed mean shapes. Reference index values for the EI were compared with a conventional index, the Haller index (HI). A close association has been shown between the two indices in multiple subjects (r = 0.974, P < 0.001). The newly developed mean shapes and reference index values supply both reliability and objectivity to the diagnosis, analysis, and treatment of chest-wall deformities. They promise to be highly useful in clinical settings.

  11. Assessment of international reference materials for isotope-ratio analysis (IUPAC Technical Report)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brand, Willi A.; Coplen, Tyler B.; Vogl, Jochen; Rosner, Martin; Prohaska, Thomas

    2014-01-01

    Since the early 1950s, the number of international measurement standards for anchoring stable isotope delta scales has mushroomed from 3 to more than 30, expanding to more than 25 chemical elements. With the development of new instrumentation, along with new and improved measurement procedures for studying naturally occurring isotopic abundance variations in natural and technical samples, the number of internationally distributed, secondary isotopic reference materials with a specified delta value has blossomed in the last six decades to more than 150 materials. More than half of these isotopic reference materials were produced for isotope-delta measurements of seven elements: H, Li, B, C, N, O, and S. The number of isotopic reference materials for other, heavier elements has grown considerably over the last decade. Nevertheless, even primary international measurement standards for isotope-delta measurements are still needed for some elements, including Mg, Fe, Te, Sb, Mo, and Ge. It is recommended that authors publish the delta values of internationally distributed, secondary isotopic reference materials that were used for anchoring their measurement results to the respective primary stable isotope scale.

  12. Forward Progress One Step at a Time: Workshops, Assessment, and the Reference Connection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cranston, Catherine L.; Level, Allison V.

    2006-01-01

    Library instruction about reference materials, databases, and quality web sites never goes out of fashion for students, faculty, or staff. An annual professional development program on the Colorado State University campus offers an opportunity to provide specialized library instruction to targeted faculty and staff members. For two consecutive…

  13. Assessment of minute volume of lung in NPP workers for Korean reference man

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Y. J.; Song, S. H.; Lee, J.; Jin, Y. W.; Yim, Y. K.; Kim, J. S. [KNETEC, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2001-05-01

    To formulation of the reference Korean for radiation protection purpose, we measured the forced vital capacity(FVC), forced expiratory volume in second(FEVI), minute ventilation(MV) of Nuclear Power Plant workers using SP-1 Spirometry Unit(Schiller AG. 1998) and eatimated the liters of breathed for working and resting, also compared these data with ICRP 23.

  14. Proposed methodology for completion of scenario analysis for the Basalt Waste Isolation Project. [Assessment of post-closure performance for a proposed repository for high-level nuclear waste

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Roberds, W.J.; Plum, R.J.; Visca, P.J.

    1984-11-01

    This report presents the methodology to complete an assessment of postclosure performance, considering all credible scenarios, including the nominal case, for a proposed repository for high-level nuclear waste at the Hanford Site, Washington State. The methodology consists of defensible techniques for identifying and screening scenarios, and for then assessing the risks associated with each. The results of the scenario analysis are used to comprehensively determine system performance and/or risk for evaluation of compliance with postclosure performance criteria (10 CFR 60 and 40 CFR 191). In addition to describing the proposed methodology, this report reviews available methodologies for scenario analysis, discusses pertinent performance assessment and uncertainty concepts, advises how to implement the methodology (including the organizational requirements and a description of tasks) and recommends how to use the methodology in guiding future site characterization, analysis, and engineered subsystem design work. 36 refs., 24 figs., 1 tab.

  15. Development of National Future Extreme Heat Scenario to Enable the Assessment of Climate Impacts on Public Health

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quattrochi, Dale A.; Cresson, William L.; Al-Hamdan, Mohammad Z.; Estes, Maurice G.

    2013-01-01

    The project's emphasis is on providing assessments of the magnitude, frequency and geographic distribution of EHEs to facilitate public health studies. We focus on the daily to weekly time scales on which EHEs occur, not on decadal-scale climate changes. There is, however, a very strong connection between air temperature patterns at the two time scales and long-term climatic changes will certainly alter the frequency of EHEs.

  16. Provisional Assessment of Candidate High-Temperature Thermal Conductivity Reference Materials in the EMRP “Thermo” Project

    OpenAIRE

    Wu, J.; Morrell, R; T. Fry; Gnaniah, S.; Gohil, D.; Dawson, A.; Hameury, J.; Koenen, Alain; Hammerschmidt, U.; Turzó-András, E.; Strnad, R.; Blahut, A.

    2015-01-01

    This article describes the provisional assessment of a short list of four candidate high-temperature thermal conductivity reference materials in a European research project, “Thermo.” These four candidate materials are low-density calcium silicate, amorphous silica, high-density calcium silicate, and exfoliated vermiculite. Based on initial tests on material composition and microstructure changes, dimensional stability, mechanical stability, chemical stability and uniformity, the best two can...

  17. Combined vertebral assessment and bone densitometry increases the prevalence and severity of osteoporosis in patients referred to DXA scanning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mrgan, Monija; Mohammed, Anna; Gram, Jeppe

    2014-01-01

    We performed a retrospective study to assess if vertebral fracture assessment (VFA) after routine bone mineral density (BMD) measurement on a dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) machine had increased the number of patients diagnosed with osteoporosis and revealed previous unknown incident...... vertebral fractures. A total of 3275 patients were referred to bone densitometry by DXA to be screened for osteoporosis or evaluation of ongoing antiosteoporotic treatment. All spine X-rays obtained at our hospital from the same patients in the period from 3 mo before to 3 mo after the date of DXA scans...

  18. Climate scenarios for California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cayan, Daniel R.; Maurer, Ed; Dettinger, Mike; Tyree, Mary; Hayhoe, Katharine; Bonfils, Celine; Duffy, Phil; Santer, Ben

    2006-01-01

    Possible future climate changes in California are investigated from a varied set of climate change model simulations. These simulations, conducted by three state-of-the-art global climate models, provide trajectories from three greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios. These scenarios and the resulting climate simulations are not “predictions,” but rather are a limited sample from among the many plausible pathways that may affect California’s climate. Future GHG concentrations are uncertain because they depend on future social, political, and technological pathways, and thus the IPCC has produced four “families” of emission scenarios. To explore some of these uncertainties, emissions scenarios A2 (a medium-high emissions) and B1 (low emissions) were selected from the current IPCC Fourth climate assessment, which provides several recent model simulations driven by A2 and B1 emissions. The global climate model simulations addressed here were from PCM1, the Parallel Climate Model from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) group, and CM2.1 from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Geophysical Fluids Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL).

  19. UK National Ecosystem Assessment Follow-on. Work package 7: Operationalising scenarios in the UK National Ecosystem Assessment Follow-on

    OpenAIRE

    Haines-Young, Roy; Tratalos, Jamie; Birkinshaw, Stephen J.; Butler, Simon; Gosling, Simon N.; Hull, Stephen; Kass, Gary; Lewis, Elizabeth; Lum, Richard; Norris, Ken; Potschin, Marion; Walmsley, Suzannah

    2014-01-01

    Summary Study aims and approach An aim of the UK NEA Follow-on (UK NEAFO) is to develop and communicate the evidence base of the UK NEA and make it relevant to decision and policy making. It also provides an important opportunity for those working on scenario methods and concepts to scrutinise the role of futures thinking in the management of ecosystem services and so develop their effectiveness as decision support tools. In this study we have therefore asked: how can the UK...

  20. Accuracy Assessment of Mobile Mapping Point Clouds Using the Existing Environment as Terrestrial Reference

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hofmann, S.; Brenner, C.

    2016-06-01

    Mobile mapping data is widely used in various applications, what makes it especially important for data users to get a statistically verified quality statement on the geometric accuracy of the acquired point clouds or its processed products. The accuracy of point clouds can be divided into an absolute and a relative quality, where the absolute quality describes the position of the point cloud in a world coordinate system such as WGS84 or UTM, whereas the relative accuracy describes the accuracy within the point cloud itself. Furthermore, the quality of processed products such as segmented features depends on the global accuracy of the point cloud but mainly on the quality of the processing steps. Several data sources with different characteristics and quality can be thought of as potential reference data, such as cadastral maps, orthophoto, artificial control objects or terrestrial surveys using a total station. In this work a test field in a selected residential area was acquired as reference data in a terrestrial survey using a total station. In order to reach high accuracy the stationing of the total station was based on a newly made geodetic network with a local accuracy of less than 3 mm. The global position of the network was determined using a long time GNSS survey reaching an accuracy of 8 mm. Based on this geodetic network a 3D test field with facades and street profiles was measured with a total station, each point with a two-dimensional position and altitude. In addition, the surface of poles of street lights, traffic signs and trees was acquired using the scanning mode of the total station. Comparing this reference data to the acquired mobile mapping point clouds of several measurement campaigns a detailed quality statement on the accuracy of the point cloud data is made. Additionally, the advantages and disadvantages of the described reference data source concerning availability, cost, accuracy and applicability are discussed.

  1. Ask Us! Creating, Assessing, and Improving Chat Reference Services in Your Library

    OpenAIRE

    Pittman, Kim; Gardner, Gabriel

    2012-01-01

    Instant messaging has been widely adopted by librarians as a means of expanding reference and outreach services to library users. At the University of Minnesota Duluth (UMD) Library, staff use Libraryh3lp, a low-cost solution created by and for librarians, to connect with patrons 24 hours a day across multiple platforms. Learn how to reach your patrons using customized chat widgets embedded in your library website, databases, or online research guides. We will also discuss usability issues an...

  2. Utilizing a reference material for assessing absolute tumor mechanical properties in modality independent elastography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Dong Kyu; Weis, Jared A.; Yankeelov, Thomas E.; Miga, Michael I.

    2014-03-01

    There is currently no reliable method for early characterization of breast cancer response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) [1,2]. Given that disruption of normal structural architecture occurs in cancer-bearing tissue, we hypothesize that further structural changes occur in response to NAC. Consequently, we are investigating the use of modalityindependent elastography (MIE) [3-8] as a method for monitoring mechanical integrity to predict long term outcomes in NAC. Recently, we have utilized a Demons non-rigid image registration method that allows 3D elasticity reconstruction in abnormal tissue geometries, making it particularly amenable to the evaluation of breast cancer mechanical properties. While past work has reflected relative elasticity contrast ratios [3], this study improves upon that work by utilizing a known stiffness reference material within the reconstruction framework such that a stiffness map becomes an absolute measure. To test, a polyvinyl alcohol (PVA) cryogel phantom and a silicone rubber mock mouse tumor phantom were constructed with varying mechanical stiffness. Results showed that an absolute measure of stiffness could be obtained based on a reference value. This reference technique demonstrates the ability to generate accurate measurements of absolute stiffness to characterize response to NAC. These results support that `referenced MIE' has the potential to reliably differentiate absolute tumor stiffness with significant contrast from that of surrounding tissue. The use of referenced MIE to obtain absolute quantification of biomarkers is also translatable across length scales such that the characterization method is mechanics-consistent at the small animal and human application.

  3. Spatial assessment of the economic feasibility of short rotation coppice on radioactively contaminated land in Belarus, Ukraine, and Russia. I. Model description and scenario analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perk Mv, Marcel van der; Burema, Jiske; Vandenhove, Hildegarde; Goor, François; Timofeyev, Sergei

    2004-09-01

    The economic feasibility of short rotation coppice (SRC) production and energy conversion in areas contaminated by Chernobyl-derived (137)Cs was evaluated taking the spatial variability of environmental conditions into account. Two sequential GIS-embedded submodels were developed for a spatial assessment, which allow for spatial variation in soil contamination, soil type, and land use. These models were applied for four SRC production and four energy conversion scenarios for the entire contaminated area of Ukraine, Belarus, and Russia and for a part of the Bragin district, Belarus. It was concluded that in general medium-scale SRC production using local machines is most profitable. The areas near Chernobyl are not suitable for SRC production since the contamination levels in SRC wood exceed the intervention limit. Large scale SRC production is not profitable in areas where dry and sandy soils predominate. If the soil contamination does not exceed the intervention limit and sufficient SRC wood is available, all energy conversion scenarios are profitable.

  4. Spatial assessment of the economic feasibility of short rotation coppice on radioactively contaminated land in Belarus, Ukraine, and Russia. I. Model description and scenario analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perk Mv, Marcel van der; Burema, Jiske; Vandenhove, Hildegarde; Goor, François; Timofeyev, Sergei

    2004-09-01

    The economic feasibility of short rotation coppice (SRC) production and energy conversion in areas contaminated by Chernobyl-derived (137)Cs was evaluated taking the spatial variability of environmental conditions into account. Two sequential GIS-embedded submodels were developed for a spatial assessment, which allow for spatial variation in soil contamination, soil type, and land use. These models were applied for four SRC production and four energy conversion scenarios for the entire contaminated area of Ukraine, Belarus, and Russia and for a part of the Bragin district, Belarus. It was concluded that in general medium-scale SRC production using local machines is most profitable. The areas near Chernobyl are not suitable for SRC production since the contamination levels in SRC wood exceed the intervention limit. Large scale SRC production is not profitable in areas where dry and sandy soils predominate. If the soil contamination does not exceed the intervention limit and sufficient SRC wood is available, all energy conversion scenarios are profitable. PMID:15294354

  5. EPA QUICK REFERENCE GUIDES

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA Quick Reference Guides are compilations of information on chemical and biological terrorist agents. The information is presented in consistent format and includes agent characteristics, release scenarios, health and safety data, real-time field detection, effect levels, samp...

  6. Synthesis report of geo technic assessment to clay-AGP design: reference concept

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This report summarizes the studies on clays for the storage of radioactive wastes. The study is focussed to the geotechnical assessment for the clays. The report presents the methodology analysis, the geotechnical feasibility, minimizing methods, costs and operation

  7. Environmental Impact Assessment and Sustainable Agricultural Development--With Special Reference to Kenya.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiragu, Consolater Wambuku; Goode, Pamela M.

    1990-01-01

    The concept of sustainable agriculture from the perspective of development in Kenya is discussed. The steps in an Environmental Impact Assessment which takes into account the physical, cultural, social, and ecological aspects of the problem are presented. (CW)

  8. Ecobiological assessment of a freshwater lake at Schirmacher Oasis, East Antarctica, with reference to human activities

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Ingole, B.S.; Dhargalkar, V.K.

    The scale and magnitude of probable impact of human activities over a decade (1983-1994) on the freshwater lake Priyadarshini, at Schirmacher Oasis, East Antarctica, was assessed through an ecological study conducted over an annual cycle during...

  9. Geographical scenario uncertainty in generic fate and exposure factors of toxic pollutants for life-cycle impact assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huijbregts, M A J; Lundi, S; McKone, T E; van de Meent, D

    2003-05-01

    In environmental life-cycle assessments (LCA), fate and exposure factors account for the general fate and exposure properties of chemicals under generic environmental conditions by means of 'evaluative' multi-media fate and exposure box models. To assess the effect of using different generic environmental conditions, fate and exposure factors of chemicals emitted under typical conditions of (1). Western Europe, (2). Australia and (3). the United States of America were compared with the multi-media fate and exposure box model USES-LCA. Comparing the results of the three evaluative environments, it was found that the uncertainty in fate and exposure factors for ecosystems and humans due to choice of an evaluative environment, as represented by the ratio of the 97.5th and 50th percentile, is between a factor 2 and 10. Particularly, fate and exposure factors of emissions causing effects in fresh water ecosystems and effects on human health have relatively high uncertainty. This uncertainty is mainly caused by the continental difference in the average soil erosion rate, the dimensions of the fresh water and agricultural soil compartment, and the fraction of drinking water coming from ground water.

  10. River Lune juvenile fish stock assessment 1997 with particular reference to salmonids

    OpenAIRE

    Shields, B; Clifton-Dey , D.

    2000-01-01

    This report presents data from the juvenile salmonid fish stock assessment which is part of the routine Environment Agency riverine monitoring programme. A total of 110 sites was electrofished throughout the Lune catchment between 15th July 1997 and 14th October 1997. These sites included 84 that had been previously sampled in the last comprehensive survey of the catchment, in 1991. The aim of this survey was to assess the distribution and abundance of juvenile salmon and trout in the Riv...

  11. Assessing the effects of different regulatory scenarios on air pollutant emissions generated by fossil fuels: The case of the new Italian energy plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The paper gives a short view of the study aimed at assessing the effect of different regulations on the reduction of emissions of sulphur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, total suspended particles and carbon monoxide which will be generated in Italy by the combustion of fossil fuels, according to the projections of the energy consumptions reported in the National Energy Plan. Overall, twenty regulatory scenarios have been implemented to simulate the evolution of emissions in the years 1995 and 2000 in the main activity sectors: electricity generation, industry, transportation and domestic. On the basis of the results of this simulation a preliminary estimate has been done of the costs associated with the reduction of emissions in the electricity generating sector. (author)

  12. Assessment of genetic diversity in the sorghum reference set using EST-SSR markers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramu, P; Billot, C; Rami, J-F; Senthilvel, S; Upadhyaya, H D; Ananda Reddy, L; Hash, C T

    2013-08-01

    Selection and use of genetically diverse genotypes are key factors in any crop breeding program to develop cultivars with a broad genetic base. Molecular markers play a major role in selecting diverse genotypes. In the present study, a reference set representing a wide range of sorghum genetic diversity was screened with 40 EST-SSR markers to validate both the use of these markers for genetic structure analyses and the population structure of this set. Grouping of accessions is identical in distance-based and model-based clustering methods. Genotypes were grouped primarily based on race within the geographic origins. Accessions derived from the African continent contributed 88.6 % of alleles confirming the African origin of sorghum. In total, 360 alleles were detected in the reference set with an average of 9 alleles per marker. The average PIC value was 0.5230 with a range of 0.1379-0.9483. Sub-race, guinea margaritiferum (Gma) from West Africa formed a separate cluster in close proximity to wild accessions suggesting that the Gma group represents an independent domestication event. Guineas from India and Western Africa formed two distinct clusters. Accessions belongs to the kafir race formed the most homogeneous group as observed in earlier studies. This analysis suggests that the EST-SSR markers used in the present study have greater discriminating power than the genomic SSRs. Genetic variance within the subpopulations was very high (71.7 %) suggesting that the germplasm lines included in the set are more diverse. Thus, this reference set representing the global germplasm is an ideal material for the breeding community, serving as a community resource for trait-specific allele mining as well as genome-wide association mapping.

  13. Assessment of small volume ionization chambers as reference dosimeters in high-energy photon beams

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Le Roy, M; De Carlan, L; Delaunay, F; Donois, M; Fournier, P; Ostrowsky, A; Vouillaume, A; Bordy, J M, E-mail: loic.decarlan@cea.fr [CEA, LIST, Laboratoire National Henri Becquerel, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette CEDEX (France)

    2011-09-07

    LNE-LNHB is involved in a European project aiming at establishing absorbed dose-to-water standards for photon-radiation fields down to 2 x 2 cm{sup 2}. This requires the calibration of reference ionization chambers of small volume. Twenty-four ionization chambers of eight different types with volume ranging from 0.007 to 0.057 cm{sup 3} were tested in a {sup 60}Co beam. For each chamber, two major characteristics were investigated: (1) the stability of the measured current as a function of the irradiation time under continuous irradiation. At LNE-LNHB, the variation of the current should be less than {+-}0.1% in comparison with its first value (over a 16 h irradiation time); (2) the variation of the ionization current with the applied polarizing voltage and polarity. Leakage currents were also measured. Results show that (1) every tested PTW (31015, 31016 and 31014) and Exradin A1SL chambers demonstrate a satisfying stability under irradiation. Other types of chambers have a stability complying with the stability criterion for some or none of them. (2) IBA CC01, IBA CC04 and Exradin A1SL show a proper response as a function of applied voltage for both polarities. PTW, Exradin A14SL and Exradin A16 do not. Only three types of chambers were deemed suitable as reference chambers according to LNE-LNHB requirements and specifications from McEwen (2010 Med. Phys. 37 2179-93): Exradin A1SL chambers (3/3), IBA CC04 (2/3) and IBA CC01 (1/3). The Exradin A1SL type with an applied polarizing voltage of 150 V was chosen as an LNE-LNHB reference chamber type in 2 x 2 cm{sup 2} radiation fields.

  14. Critical assessment of the elemental composition of Corning archeological reference glasses by LA-ICP-MS

    OpenAIRE

    B. Wagner; Nowak, A.; Bulska, E.; Hametner, K.; Günther, D.

    2011-01-01

    Corning archeological reference glasses A, B, C, and D have been made to simulate different historic technologies of glass production and are used as standards in historic glass investigations. In this work, nanoseconds (193, 266 nm) and femtosecond (800 nm) laser ablation were used to study the elemental composition of Corning glasses using laser ablation inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry. The determined concentrations of 26 oxides (Li2O, B2O3, Na2O, MgO, Al2O3, SiO2, P2O5, K2O, C...

  15. Scenario-based assessment of future food security%基于空间模型的全球粮食安全评价

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    吴文斌; 唐华俊; 杨鹏; 游良志; 周清波; 陈仲新; 柴崎亮介

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents a scenario-based assessment of global future food security. To do that, the socio-economic and climate change scenarios were defined for the future and were linked to an integrated modeling framework. The crop yields simulated by the GIS-based Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model and crop areas simulated by the crop choice decision model were combined to calculate the total food production and per capita food availability, which was used to represent the status of food availability and stability. The per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP) simulated by IFPSIM model was used to reflect the situation of food accessibility and affordability. Based on these two indicators,the future food security status was assessed at a global scale over a period of approximately 20 years, starting from the year 2000. The results show that certain regions such as South Asia and most African countries will likely remain hotspots of food insecurity in the future as both the per capita food availability and the capacity of being able to import food will decrease between 2000 and 2020. Low food production associated with poverty is the determining factor to starvation in these regions, and more efforts are needed to combat hunger in terms of future actions. Other regions such as China, most Eastern European countries and most South American countries where there is an increase in per capita food availability or an increase in the capacity to import food between 2000 and 2020 might be able to improve their food security situation.

  16. Effect of dextromethorphan on reference memory assessed in rats by a three-panel runway task.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Göçmez, Semil Selcen; Erden, Bekir Faruk; Ulak, Güner; Utkan, Tijen; Yildiz, Füruzan; Gacar, Nejat; Mutlu, Oguz

    2006-01-01

    The effects of dextromethorphan (DM, CAS 6700-34-1), a common over-the-counter cough suppressant, on the reference memory have been investigated by a three-panel runway setup in rats. This study was designed by using a repeated acquisition procedure such as a radialarm maze task or a water maze task. DM (20-40 mg/kg i.p.) produced a significant decrease in the number of errors (pushes made on the two incorrect panels of the three panel gates at four choice points) and latency. Systemically administered scopolamine (CAS 114-49-8) (1 mg/kg i.p.) impaired the performance on both parameters. DM (40 mg/kg i.p.) was effective in reversing the reference memory deficit induced by administration of scopolamine. DM acts as a noncompetitive antagonist of the N-methyl-D-aspartate (NMDA) receptors. Our results suggest that inhibition of NMDA receptors by DM supports its potential positive properties. This finding might present an oppurtunity for the evaluation of this old antitussive drug. PMID:16724513

  17. Comparative life cycle assessment and life cycle costing of four disposal scenarios for used polyethylene terephthalate bottles in Mauritius.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foolmaun, Rajendra Kumar; Ramjeeawon, Toolseeram

    2012-09-01

    The annual rise in population growth coupled with the flourishing tourism industry in Mauritius has lead to a considerable increase in the amount of solid waste generated. In parallel, the disposal of non-biodegradable wastes, especially plastic packaging and plastic bottles, has also shown a steady rise. Improper disposal of used polyethylene terephthalate (PET) bottles constitutes an eyesore to the environmental landscape and is a threat to the flourishing tourism industry. It is of utmost importance, therefore, to determine a suitable disposal method for used PET bottles which is not only environmentally efficient but is also cost effective. This study investigated the environmental impacts and the cost effectiveness of four selected disposal alternatives for used PET bottles in Mauritius. The four disposal routes investigated were: 100% landfilling; 75% incineration with energy recovery and 25% landfilling; 40% flake production (partial recycling) and 60% landfilling; and 75% flake production and 25% landfilling. Environmental impacts of the disposal alternatives were determined using ISO standardized life cycle assessment (LCA) and with the support of SimaPro 7.1 software. Cost effectiveness was determined using life cycle costing (LCC). Collected data were entered into a constructed Excel-based model to calculate the different cost categories, Net present values, damage costs and payback periods. LCA and LCC results indicated that 75% flake production and 25% landfilling was the most environmentally efficient and cost-effective disposal route for used PET bottles in Mauritius. PMID:23240194

  18. Pesticide leaching FOCUS scenarios if only dissolved pesticides degrade: re-assessing the importance of soil water flow

    Science.gov (United States)

    Te Brake, B.; van der Zee, S. E. A. T. M.; Verhoef, A.

    2009-04-01

    Although the pesticide screening policies assume that both dissolved and adsorbed pesticides are subject to transformation (or degradation), it is debatable whether this assumption is correct. Instead, it has been proposed that only dissolved pesticides may degrade, in line with the consensus on other organic contaminants for which only the dissolved or easily accessible fractions are biodegradable. If only dissolved pesticide fractions can degrade, this has major impacts on the pesticide risk assessment in the EU, which so far assumes all pesticide can degrade, whatever their chemical forms. In particular, if only dissolved pesticide degrades, the sorption process becomes completely irrelevant for the long term leached fraction: both regarding its (non)equilibrium and its (non)linearity assumptions. If sorption as such becomes less important, other processes should become more important for the leached fraction, and water flow as the major driving force is a logical candidate. Indeed, the rate of leaching can be shown to depend significantly on the net precipitation, with some prominent adjustments, if sorption becomes less dominant than in the current pesticide screening approaches. It will be shown that the celerity of leaching depends differently on the water flow, than does the leached fraction (which is crucial for pesticide admission policies). Therefore, a reconsideration of EU pesticide screening and admission policies may be necessary.

  19. Policy relevance of three integrated assessment tools - A comparison with specific reference to agricultural policies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Uthes, S.; Fricke, K.; Konig, H.; Zander, P.; Ittersum, van M.K.; Sieber, S.; Helming, K.; Piorr, A.; Muller, K.

    2010-01-01

    The Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), a system of market support instruments, direct income transfers, and rural development measures, has been put through an ongoing reform process in recent decades. This paper introduces three policy impact assessment tools (SIAT, SEAMLESS-IF, MEA-Scope tool) and

  20. Factorial Validity of the Reynolds Intellectual Assessment Scales for Referred Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beaujean, A. Alexander; McGlaughlin, Sean M.; Margulies, Allison S.

    2009-01-01

    The Reynolds Intellectual Assessment Scales (RIAS) is a recently developed, individually administered psychometric instrument designed to measure general cognitive ability, as well as verbal (crystallized) intelligence, nonverbal (fluid) intelligence, and memory. Test reviewers have recommended the use of the RIAS despite the fact that, although…

  1. Assessment of Ganga river ecosystem at Haridwar, Uttarakhand, India with reference to water quality indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhutiani, R.; Khanna, D. R.; Kulkarni, Dipali Bhaskar; Ruhela, Mukesh

    2016-06-01

    The river Ganges is regarded as one of the most holy and sacred rivers of the world from time immemorial. The evaluation of river water quality is a critical element in the assessment of water resources. The quality/potability of water that is consumed defines the base line of protection against many diseases and infections. The present study aimed to calculate Water Quality Index (WQI) by the analysis of sixteen physico-chemical parameters on the basis of River Ganga index of Ved Prakash, weighted arithmetic index and WQI by National sanitation foundation (NSF) to assess the suitability of water for drinking, irrigation purposes and other human uses. These three water quality indices have been used to assess variation in the quality of the River Ganga at monitored locations over an 11-year period. Application of three different indexes to assess the water quality over a period of 11 years shows minor variations in water quality. Index values as per River Ganga Index by Ved Prakash et al. from 2000 to 2010 ranged between medium to good, Index values as per NSF Index for years 2000-2010 indicate good water quality, while Index values as per the weighted arithmetic index method for the study period indicate poor water quality.

  2. Sexual Problems in Cardiac Patients How to Assess, When to Refer

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jaarsma, Tiny; Steinke, Elaine E.; Gianotten, Woet L.

    2010-01-01

    It is increasingly realized that discussing sexuality is an important issue in the holistic care for cardiac patients. In this review article, the conditions of a good assessment of sexual problems are identified such as creating an appropriate environment, ensuring confidentiality, and using approp

  3. Reference genome-independent assessment of mutation density using restriction enzyme-phased sequencing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Monson-Miller Jennifer

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The availability of low cost sequencing has spurred its application to discovery and typing of variation, including variation induced by mutagenesis. Mutation discovery is challenging as it requires a substantial amount of sequencing and analysis to detect very rare changes and distinguish them from noise. Also challenging are the cases when the organism of interest has not been sequenced or is highly divergent from the reference. Results We describe the development of a simple method for reduced representation sequencing. Input DNA was digested with a single restriction enzyme and ligated to Y adapters modified to contain a sequence barcode and to provide a compatible overhang for ligation. We demonstrated the efficiency of this method at SNP discovery using rice and arabidopsis. To test its suitability for the discovery of very rare SNP, one control and three mutagenized rice individuals (1, 5 and 10 mM sodium azide were used to prepare genomic libraries for Illumina sequencers by ligating barcoded adapters to NlaIII restriction sites. For genome-dependent discovery 15-30 million of 80 base reads per individual were aligned to the reference sequence achieving individual sequencing coverage from 7 to 15×. We identified high-confidence base changes by comparing sequences across individuals and identified instances consistent with mutations, i.e. changes that were found in a single treated individual and were solely GC to AT transitions. For genome-independent discovery 70-mers were extracted from the sequence of the control individual and single-copy sequence was identified by comparing the 70-mers across samples to evaluate copy number and variation. This de novo "genome" was used to align the reads and identify mutations as above. Covering approximately 1/5 of the 380 Mb genome of rice we detected mutation densities ranging from 0.6 to 4 per Mb of diploid DNA depending on the mutagenic treatment. Conclusions The

  4. Toxicity reference values for chlorophacinone and their application for assessing anticoagulant rodenticide risk to raptors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rattner, Barnett A.; Horak, Katherine E.; Lazarus, Rebecca; Schultz, Sandra; Knowles, Susan N.; Abbo, B.G.; Volker, Steven F.

    2015-01-01

    Despite widespread use and benefit, there are growing concerns regarding hazards of second-generation anticoagulant rodenticides to non-target wildlife which may result in expanded use of first-generation compounds, including chlorophacinone (CPN). The toxicity of CPN over a 7-day exposure period was investigated in American kestrels (Falco sparverius) fed either rat tissue mechanically-amended with CPN, tissue from rats fed Rozol® bait (biologically-incorporated CPN), or control diets (tissue from untreated rats or commercial bird of prey diet) ad libitum. Nominal CPN concentrations in the formulated diets were 0.15, 0.75 and 1.5 µg/g food wet weight, and measured concentrations averaged 94 % of target values. Kestrel food consumption was similar among groups and body weight varied by less than 6 %. Overt signs of intoxication, liver CPN residues, and changes in prothrombin time (PT), Russell’s viper venom time (RVVT) and hematocrit, were generally dose-dependent. Histological evidence of hemorrhage was present at all CPN dose levels, and most frequently observed in pectoral muscle and heart. There were no apparent differences in toxicity between mechanically-amended and biologically-incorporated CPN diet formulations. Dietary-based toxicity reference values at which clotting times were prolonged in 50 % of the kestrels were 79.2 µg CPN consumed/kg body weight-day for PT and 39.1 µg/kg body weight-day for RVVT. Based upon daily food consumption of kestrels and previously reported CPN concentrations found in small mammals following field baiting trials, these toxicity reference values might be exceeded by free-ranging raptors consuming such exposed prey. Tissue-based toxicity reference values for coagulopathy in 50 % of exposed birds were 0.107 µg CPN/g liver wet weight for PT and 0.076 µg/g liver for RVVT, and are below the range of residue levels reported in raptor mortality incidents attributed to CPN exposure. Sublethal responses associated

  5. Assessment of CO2 capture by calcium looping (CaL) process in a flexible power plant operation scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Among various carbon capture options, calcium looping (CaL) seems to be a promising method to reduce both energy and cost penalties for post-combustion CO2 capture compared to gas–liquid applications. In addition, assessment of dynamic performances of power plants with carbon capture is of great importance in the context of actual energy sector. This paper develops and evaluates, through dynamic modeling, the performances of CaL cycle operating in turbulent and fast fluidization regimes. CaL cycle has two independed circulated fluidized bed (CFB) reactors: the calciner, where CO2 is captured by reacting with CaO and the carbonator, where the CO2 is released and the sorbent is regenerated. Detailed mathematic models for both CaL cycle reactors were developed and simulated in dynamic conditions similar to the power plant cycling. The simulation results, in case of carbonator, were compared with experimental data published in literature and good quality prediction of CaL cycle was observed. In terms of CO2 capture efficiency, the sorbent capacity decreases significant with the number of cycles. The results proved that the height of the dense region decreases with increasing of the superficial velocity of the gas. The most part of the reactions takes place in the dense region; therefore, at smaller superficial gas velocities a higher carbonation degree can be achieved (more than 73%). The CO2 removal rate has been studied using a ramp, step and sinusoidal input tests to highlight the CaL transient response that occur in a real power plant due to load following operation. - Highlights: • Development of dynamic model for the CO2 capture using calcium looping (CaL) process. • Evaluation of CaL cycle dynamic behavior and model validation vs. experimental data. • Evaluation of CO2 removal capacity during a ramp, step and sinusoidal input tests

  6. Assessment of the Impact of Metropolitan-Scale Urban Planning Scenarios on the Moist Thermal Environment under Global Warming: A Study of the Tokyo Metropolitan Area Using Regional Climate Modeling

    OpenAIRE

    Asuka Suzuki-Parker; Hiroyuki Kusaka; Yoshiki Yamagata

    2015-01-01

    Using a high-resolution regional climate model coupled with urban canopy model, the present study provides the first attempt in quantifying the impact of metropolitan-scale urban planning scenarios on moist thermal environment under global warming. Tokyo metropolitan area is selected as a test case. Three urban planning scenarios are considered: status quo, dispersed city, and compact city. Their impact on the moist thermal environment is assessed using wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT). Futu...

  7. Obstetric care providers are able to assess psychosocial risks, identify and refer high-risk pregnant women: validation of a short assessment tool – the KINDEX Greek version

    OpenAIRE

    Spyridou, Andria; Schauer, Maggie; Ruf-Leuschner, Martina

    2015-01-01

    Background Prenatal assessment for psychosocial risk factors and prevention and intervention is scarce and, in most cases, nonexistent in obstetrical care. In this study we aimed to evaluate if the KINDEX, a short instrument developed in Germany, is a useful tool in the hands of non-trained medical staff, in order to identify and refer women in psychosocial risk to the adequate mental health and social services. We also examined the criterion-related concurrent validity of the tool through a ...

  8. Carbon-constrained scenarios. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This report provides the results of the study entitled 'Carbon-Constrained Scenarios' that was funded by FONDDRI from 2004 to 2008. The study was achieved in four steps: (i) Investigating the stakes of a strong carbon constraint for the industries participating in the study, not only looking at the internal decarbonization potential of each industry but also exploring the potential shifts of the demand for industrial products. (ii) Developing an hybrid modelling platform based on a tight dialog between the sectoral energy model POLES and the macro-economic model IMACLIM-R, in order to achieve a consistent assessment of the consequences of an economy-wide carbon constraint on energy-intensive industrial sectors, while taking into account technical constraints, barriers to the deployment of new technologies and general economic equilibrium effects. (iii) Producing several scenarios up to 2050 with different sets of hypotheses concerning the driving factors for emissions - in particular the development styles. (iv) Establishing an iterative dialog between researchers and industry representatives on the results of the scenarios so as to improve them, but also to facilitate the understanding and the appropriate use of these results by the industrial partners. This report provides the results of the different scenarios computed in the course of the project. It is a partial synthesis of the work that has been accomplished and of the numerous exchanges that this study has induced between modellers and stakeholders. The first part was written in April 2007 and describes the first reference scenario and the first mitigation scenario designed to achieve stabilization at 450 ppm CO2 at the end of the 21. century. This scenario has been called 'mimetic' because it has been build on the assumption that the ambitious climate policy would coexist with a progressive convergence of development paths toward the current paradigm of industrialized countries: urban sprawl, general

  9. Assessment of commutability for candidate certified reference material ERM-BB130 "chloramphenicol in pork".

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeleny, Reinhard; Emteborg, Håkan; Schimmel, Heinz

    2010-10-01

    Chloramphenicol (CAP), an effective antibiotic against many microorganisms, is meanwhile banned in the EU for treatment of food-producing animals due to adverse health effects. The Institute for Reference Materials and Measurements (IRMM) is currently developing a certified reference material (CRM) for CAP in pork, intended for validation and method performance verifications of analytical methods. The material will be certified using liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) and gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS) methods and has a target CAP level around the minimum required performance limit (MRPL) of 0.3 microg/kg. To prove that the material can be applied as a quality control tool for screening methods, a commutability study was conducted, involving five commercially available enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay kits and one biosensor assay (BiaCore kit). Meat homogenates (cryo-milled wet tissue) with CAP concentrations around the MRPL and the candidate CRM (lyophilised powder) were measured by LC-MS/MS and GC-MS as well as the six screening methods. Pairwise method comparisons of results obtained for the two sample types showed that the CRM can successfully be applied as quality control (QC) sample to all six screening methods. The study suggests that ERM-BB130 is sufficiently commutable with the investigated assays and that laboratories applying one of the investigated kits therefore benefit from using ERM-BB130 to demonstrate the correctness of their results. However, differences among the assays were observed, either in the abundance of bias between screening and confirmatory LC and GC methods, the repeatability of test results, or goodness of fit between the methods. PMID:20665007

  10. Reference-Free Assessment of Speech Intelligibility Using Bispectrum of an Auditory Neurogram.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hossain, Mohammad E; Jassim, Wissam A; Zilany, Muhammad S A

    2016-01-01

    Sensorineural hearing loss occurs due to damage to the inner and outer hair cells of the peripheral auditory system. Hearing loss can cause decreases in audibility, dynamic range, frequency and temporal resolution of the auditory system, and all of these effects are known to affect speech intelligibility. In this study, a new reference-free speech intelligibility metric is proposed using 2-D neurograms constructed from the output of a computational model of the auditory periphery. The responses of the auditory-nerve fibers with a wide range of characteristic frequencies were simulated to construct neurograms. The features of the neurograms were extracted using third-order statistics referred to as bispectrum. The phase coupling of neurogram bispectrum provides a unique insight for the presence (or deficit) of supra-threshold nonlinearities beyond audibility for listeners with normal hearing (or hearing loss). The speech intelligibility scores predicted by the proposed method were compared to the behavioral scores for listeners with normal hearing and hearing loss both in quiet and under noisy background conditions. The results were also compared to the performance of some existing methods. The predicted results showed a good fit with a small error suggesting that the subjective scores can be estimated reliably using the proposed neural-response-based metric. The proposed metric also had a wide dynamic range, and the predicted scores were well-separated as a function of hearing loss. The proposed metric successfully captures the effects of hearing loss and supra-threshold nonlinearities on speech intelligibility. This metric could be applied to evaluate the performance of various speech-processing algorithms designed for hearing aids and cochlear implants. PMID:26967160

  11. VALIDITY OF TWO CLINICAL KNEE STRENGTH ASSESSMENTS COMPARED TO THE REFERENCE STANDARD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Philipp Weng

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Objectives: Patello femoral Pain (PFP is the most common lower limb condition encountered in clinical practice. It recently emerged as the third highest ranked topic out of 185 in the Chartered Society of Physiotherapy Musculoskeletal Research Priority Project. For a valid assessment of knee strength during rehabilitation, the isometric test using the isokinetic dynamometer (Cybex and the hand-held dynamometer (HHD is not well received with clinical practice. An alternative way is through functional hop tests which clinicians have used to assess their patients' lower extremity muscular strength. This study investigates the validity of knee strength assessments conducted with the HHD and the hoptest compared to the isokinetic dynamometer and also explores differences between genders of the three assessments. Design: Each assessment included one submaximal and three recorded maximal efforts of the dominant leg. Quadriceps muscle strength was displayed in normalized torques. Correlation coefficients and box-and-whisker plots was used to analyze the data. Setting: Movement analysis laboratory Participants: Sixteen males (age 23.5 ± 4.23 years, height 1.79 ± 0.08 m and body mass 76.21 ± 10.58 kg, BMI 23.82 ± 2.38 kg/m² and 16 females (age 25.38 ± 5.49 years, height 1.67 ± 0.08 m and body mass 71.99 ± 16.05 kg, BMI 25.83 ± 4.74 kg/m² between 18 and 40 years old without any musculoskeletal injuries participated. Main outcome measures: Knee moments normalized for bodyweight (Nm/kg for dynamometers and distance jumped for single legged hoptest. Results: The strongest significant correlation was found for the comparison between the HHD and Cybex (r=0.71, r²=0.504, p=0.001. Correlation between the HHD and hoptest (r=0.4, r²=0.19, p=0.013, and Cybex and hoptest (r=0.53, r²=0.295, p=0.001 were poor. Comparing genders, the normalized knee extension moment on the Cybex was 28.8% lower and with the HHD 22.3% lower for females. Conclusions: Single

  12. Development of dietary-based toxic reference values to assess the risk of chlorophacinone to non-target raptorial birds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rattner, Barnett A.; Lazarus, Rebecca; Shultz, S. L.; Horak, Katherine E.; Abbo, B.G.; Volker, Steven F.

    2014-01-01

    Regulatory changes in the use of some second-generation anticoagulant rodenticides in parts of North America may result in expanded use of first-generation anticoagulant rodenticides (FGARs). Recent toxicological studies with captive raptors have demonstrated that these species are considerably more sensitive to the FGAR diphacinone than traditional avian wildlife test species (mallard, bobwhite). We have now examined the toxicity of the FGAR chlorophacinone (CPN) to American kestrels fed rat tissue mechanically-amended with CPN, or rat tissue containing biologically-incorporated CPN, for 7 days. Nominal CPN concentrations in these diets were 0.15, 0.75 and 1.5 µg/g food wet weight, and actual CPN concentration in diets were analytically verified as being close to target values. Food intake was consistent among groups, body weight fluctuated by less than 6%, exposure and adverse effects were generally dose-dependent, and there were no dramatic differences in toxicity between mechanically-amended and biologically-incorporated CPN diets. Using benchmark dose statistical methods, toxic reference values at which clotting times were prolonged in 50% of the kestrels was estimated to be about 80 µg CPN consumed/kg body weight-day for prothrombin time and 40 µg CPN/kg body weight-day for Russell's viper venom time. Based upon carcass CPN residues reported in rodents from field baiting studies, empirical measures of food consumption in kestrels, and dietary-based toxic reference values derived from the 7-day exposure scenario, some free-ranging raptors consuming CPN exposed prey might exhibit coagulopathy and hemorrhage. These sublethal responses associated with exposure to environmentally realistic concentrations of CPN could compromise survival of exposed birds.

  13. Relationship Between Cognitive Assessment and Balance Measures in Adolescents Referred for Vestibular Physical Therapy After Concussion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alsalaheen, Bara A.; Whitney, Susan L.; Marchetti, Gregory F.; Furman, Joseph M.; Kontos, Anthony P.; Collins, Michael W.; Sparto, Patrick J.

    2016-01-01

    Objective To examine the relationship between cognitive and balance performance in adolescents with concussion. Design Retrospective case series. Setting Tertiary. Patients Sixty patients. Interventions Correlation analyses were performed to describe the relationship between symptoms, cognitive measure, and balance measure at the time of initiation of vestibular physical therapy. Main Outcome Measures Cognitive performance was assessed using the Immediate Post-concussion Assessment and Cognitive Testing (ImPACT). The dizziness and balance function measures included dizziness severity rating, Activities-specific Balance Confidence scale (ABC), Dizziness Handicap Inventory (DHI), Functional Gait Assessment, gait speed, Timed “UP and GO,” Five Times Sit to Stand, and Sensory Organization Test (SOT). To account for multiple comparisons, the False Discovery Rate method was used. Results Performance measures of balance were significantly correlated with cognitive measures. Greater total symptom scores were related to greater impairment in the ABC and DHI (r = 0.35-0.39, P ≤ 0.008) and worse performance in condition 2 of the SOT (r = −0.48, P = 0.004). Among the ImPACT composite scores, lower memory scores were correlated with impaired balance performance measures (r = 0.37-0.59, P ≤ 0.012). Lower visual memory was also correlated with worse ABC scores. Conclusions The significant relationships reported between the cognitive performance scores and balance measures may reflect that similar levels of functioning exist across domains in individuals with protracted recovery who receive vestibular physical therapy. PMID:25706663

  14. A stochastic dynamic model to assess land use change scenarios on the ecological status of fluvial water bodies under the Water Framework Directive.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hughes, Samantha Jane; Cabral, João Alexandre; Bastos, Rita; Cortes, Rui; Vicente, Joana; Eitelberg, David; Yu, Huirong; Honrado, João; Santos, Mário

    2016-09-15

    This method development paper outlines an integrative stochastic dynamic methodology (StDM) framework to anticipate land use (LU) change effects on the ecological status of monitored and non-monitored lotic surface waters under the Water Framework Directive (WFD). Tested in the Alto Minho River Basin District in North West Portugal, the model is an innovative step towards developing a decision-making and planning tool to assess the influence impacts such as LU change and climate change on these complex systems. Comprising a series of sequential steps, a Generalized Linear Model based, competing model Multi Model Inference (MMI) approach was used for parameter estimation to identify principal land use types (distal factors) driving change in biological and physicochemical support elements (proximal factors) in monitored water bodies. The framework integrated MMI constants and coefficients of selected LU categories in the StDM simulations and spatial projections to simulate the ecological status of monitored and non-monitored lotic waterbodies in the test area under 2 scenarios of (1) LU intensification and (2) LU extensification. A total of 100 simulations were run for a 50year period for each scenario. Spatially dynamic projections of WFD metrics were obtained, taking into account the occurrence of stochastic wildfire events which typically occur in the study region and are exacerbated by LU change. A marked projected decline to "Moderate" ecological status for most waterbodies was detected under intensification but little change under extensification; only a few waterbodies fell to "moderate" status. The latter scenario describes the actual regional socio-economic situation of agricultural abandonment due to rural poverty, partly explaining the projected lack of change in ecological status. Based on the WFD "one out all out" criterion, projected downward shifts in ecological status were due to physicochemical support elements, namely increased phosphorus levels

  15. Coffee Beverage Quality Assessment Based on ETA/CPTEC-HadCM3 Model (A1B-IPCC/SRES Scenario), Southeastern Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giarolla, A.; Resende, N.; Chou, S. C.; Tavares, P. S.; Rodrigues, D. C.

    2012-04-01

    Environmental factors influence the coffee beverage quality and air temperature has a significant importance in this process. The grain maturation occurs very quickly in regions that present high temperatures and sometimes there is not enough time to complete all this phase adequately. In the other hand, with mild temperatures, the grain maturation occurs more slowly and it promotes a better quality beverage. The aim of this study was to assess the coffee beverage quality in the southeastern Brazil, based on climate projections using the Eta-CPTEC regional model driven by four members of an ensemble of the Met Office Hadley Centre Global Coupled climate model (HadCM3). The global model ensemble was run over the 21st century according to IPCC SRES, A1B emissions scenario. Each ensemble member presented different climate sensitivity in the analysis. The Eta-CPTEC-HadCM3 model was configured with a 40-km grid size and was run over the period of 1961-90 to represent a baseline climate, and over the period of 2011-2100 to simulate possible future changes and the effects on the coffee beverage quality. A coffee beverage quality classification, which depends on the annual air temperature proposed by Bressani (2007) and also, a quality coffee beverage sensory classification, based on Camargo and Cortez (1998) were considered in this study. An evaluation of the systematic errors (BIAS) for each member for the period from 1961 to 1990 was made. The results presented by Eta/CPTEC-HadCM3 model indicated that in the case of an occurrence of A1B emission scenario, the coffee beverage quality could be affected in this region due to the fact that the flavor may become stronger and unpleasant caused by rising air temperatures. The BIAS evaluation and subsequent errors removal demonstrated improvement in the scenarios simulations. A short review concerning agronomic techniques to mitigate extreme meteorological events or global warming on coffee crop based on Camargo (2010) also is

  16. A stochastic dynamic model to assess land use change scenarios on the ecological status of fluvial water bodies under the Water Framework Directive.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hughes, Samantha Jane; Cabral, João Alexandre; Bastos, Rita; Cortes, Rui; Vicente, Joana; Eitelberg, David; Yu, Huirong; Honrado, João; Santos, Mário

    2016-09-15

    This method development paper outlines an integrative stochastic dynamic methodology (StDM) framework to anticipate land use (LU) change effects on the ecological status of monitored and non-monitored lotic surface waters under the Water Framework Directive (WFD). Tested in the Alto Minho River Basin District in North West Portugal, the model is an innovative step towards developing a decision-making and planning tool to assess the influence impacts such as LU change and climate change on these complex systems. Comprising a series of sequential steps, a Generalized Linear Model based, competing model Multi Model Inference (MMI) approach was used for parameter estimation to identify principal land use types (distal factors) driving change in biological and physicochemical support elements (proximal factors) in monitored water bodies. The framework integrated MMI constants and coefficients of selected LU categories in the StDM simulations and spatial projections to simulate the ecological status of monitored and non-monitored lotic waterbodies in the test area under 2 scenarios of (1) LU intensification and (2) LU extensification. A total of 100 simulations were run for a 50year period for each scenario. Spatially dynamic projections of WFD metrics were obtained, taking into account the occurrence of stochastic wildfire events which typically occur in the study region and are exacerbated by LU change. A marked projected decline to "Moderate" ecological status for most waterbodies was detected under intensification but little change under extensification; only a few waterbodies fell to "moderate" status. The latter scenario describes the actual regional socio-economic situation of agricultural abandonment due to rural poverty, partly explaining the projected lack of change in ecological status. Based on the WFD "one out all out" criterion, projected downward shifts in ecological status were due to physicochemical support elements, namely increased phosphorus levels

  17. Potential reference mires and lakes ecosystems for biosphere assessment of Olkiluoto site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    New lakes and mires will develop in the sea area now surrounding Olkiluoto Island due to the postglacial land uplift. The properties of these objects can be forecast using data from existing lakes and mires. There are, however, no such objects on the present Olkiluoto Island. This Working Report presents a project, initiated in 2007, where lakes and mires at different successional stages, suitable as reference objects for the future ones, were searched. The task included delineation of the study area, based on e.g. geological and climatological factors, and development of the selection criteria. As background, development history and properties of present lakes and mires in the study area are described in this report. For this and forthcoming projects, several GIS data sets were acquired. With help of these data, literature and environmental databases, 33 mires and 27 lakes were selected. These were considered to be the best available analogues for the future objects around Olkiluoto Island. The characteristics of these objects are presented briefly; more detailed information is found in the literature and databases. (orig.)

  18. Ultrasonographic reference values for assessing normal radial nerve ultrasonography in the normal population

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Jun Chen; Shan Wu; Jun Ren

    2014-01-01

    High-resolution ultrasound has been used recently to characterize median and ulnar nerves, but is seldom used to characterize radial nerves. The radial nerve is more frequently involved in en-trapment syndromes than the ulnar and median nerves. However, the reference standard for nor-mal radial nerves has not been established. Thus, this study measured the cross-sectional areas of radial nerves of 200 healthy male or female volunteers, aged 18 to 75, using high-resolution ultrasound. The results showed that mean cross-sectional areas of radial nerves at 4 cm upon the lateral epicondyle of the humerus and mid-humerus (midpoint between the elbow crease and axilla) were 5.14 ± 1.24 and 5.08 ± 1.23 mm2, respectively. The age and the dominant side did not affect the results, but the above-mentioned cross-sectional areas were larger in males (5.31 ± 1.25 and 5.19 ± 1.23 mm2) than in females (4.93 ± 1.21 and 4.93 ± 1.23 mm2, respective-ly). In addition, the cross-sectional areas of radial nerves were positively correlated with height and weight (r = 0.38, 0.36, respectively, bothP < 0.05). These data provide basic clinical data for the use of high-resolution ultrasound for the future diagnosis, treatment, and prognostic evalua-tion of peripheral neuropathies.

  19. Area-Based COI-Referred Rotor Angle Index for Transient Stability Assessment and Control of Power Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Noor Izzri Abdul Wahab; Azah Mohamed

    2012-01-01

    This paper describes an index for judging the severity of transient events of power systems in simulation. The proposed transient stability index, known as the area-based COI-referred rotor angle index, is developed by considering the fact that a large-sized power system is divided into several areas according to the coherency of generators in a particular area. It can be assumed that an equivalent single large machine can represent all the generators in that area. Thus, the assessment of rot...

  20. The importance of assessing for abuse and neglect in children with chronic health conditions referred for neuropsychological evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olson, Katie; Jacobson, Kristin K

    2014-01-01

    Chronic childhood illnesses have been demonstrated to negatively impact family functioning by introducing new or additive stress on all members of the family system, as well as by increasing financial burden and social isolation. Although these factors have not necessarily been shown to have a direct causal effect on increased rates of abuse in children with chronic illnesses, these children have nonetheless been demonstrated to be at greater risk for neglect and physical and sexual abuse. Children with chronic health care needs are increasingly likely to be referred for neuropsychological evaluation. Thorough assessment of maltreatment would be a valuable addition to all neuropsychological evaluations of children presenting with chronic health conditions.

  1. Risk factor scenario in an industrial set-up: Need for an effective screening tool to assess the high-risk group

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iyer Uma

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Industrial and technological revolution has resulted in nutrition transition. This calls for analyzing the risk factor scenario in the industrial population. Objective: The objective was to map the prevalence and assess the risk factors of industrial employees. Materials and Methods: The employees of a large petrochemical industry were enrolled (N=269 for the study. Risk factors were elicited through a structured questionnaire. Parameters monitored were fasting blood sugar and lipid profile. Relative risk was calculated to find out significant predictor variables. Results: The employees had high prevalence of overweight (27%, obesity (22%, central obesity (48.7%, prehypertension (43.2%, hypertension (36.6%, and dyslipidemia (41.4%. They had erroneous dietary habits such as low intake of fruits and vegetables and high fat intake. Most of the employees had low physical activity levels. The prevalence of smoking (13.5%, tobacco (28.2%, and alcohol use (22.2% were also high with 15.1% having multiple habits. One-fifth of the employees had metabolic syndrome (MS. Seven predictor variables, namely, family history, BMI, WHR, blood pressure, physical inactivity, TG, and TG/H were identified and used to develop the risk score card to identify people at high risk of CVD and DM. Conclusion: Multiple risk factor scenario among the industrial population studied calls for effective intervention strategies and policy changes to combat the burden of non-communicable diseases. The risk score card can be used to screen the high-risk group in the industrial population.

  2. The impact of stigma, experience, and group referent on HIV risk assessments and HIV testing intentions in Namibia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Rachel A; Morrison, Daniel

    2006-11-01

    People often perceive risks for others and themselves differently. This study examines whether personal beliefs about HIV and experience with those living with HIV influence personal risk assessments of contracting HIV in an interview sample of northern Namibians (N=400), but not others' assessments as explained by singular-distribution theory [Klar, Medding, & Sarel (1996). Nonunique invulnerability: Singular versus distributional probabilities and unrealistic optimism in comparative risk judgments. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 67, 229-245]. Findings indicate that personal risk perceptions decrease with more HIV stigmatizing beliefs and increase with greater experience, but that those characteristics had no impact on assessments for others' risk. The study also examines whether the size and characteristics of the referent group, peers and the general Namibian population, influence others' risk assessments. Optimistic biases for personal risk versus others' risk appear with the highest discrepancy emerging between personal and general population risk assessments. Further, we found that personal risk perceptions did not mediate the relationship between personal characteristics, beliefs and experiences, and intentions to seek HIV testing. PMID:16930796

  3. No-Reference Image Quality Assessment for ZY3 Imagery in Urban Areas Using Statistical Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Y.; Cui, W. H.; Yang, F.; Wu, Z. C.

    2016-06-01

    More and more high-spatial resolution satellite images are produced with the improvement of satellite technology. However, the quality of images is not always satisfactory for application. Due to the impact of complicated atmospheric conditions and complex radiation transmission process in imaging process the images often suffer deterioration. In order to assess the quality of remote sensing images over urban areas, we proposed a general purpose image quality assessment methods based on feature extraction and machine learning. We use two types of features in multi scales. One is from the shape of histogram the other is from the natural scene statistics based on Generalized Gaussian distribution (GGD). A 20-D feature vector for each scale is extracted and is assumed to capture the RS image quality degradation characteristics. We use SVM to learn to predict image quality scores from these features. In order to do the evaluation, we construct a median scale dataset for training and testing with subjects taking part in to give the human opinions of degraded images. We use ZY3 satellite images over Wuhan area (a city in China) to conduct experiments. Experimental results show the correlation of the predicted scores and the subjective perceptions.

  4. Ambient Air Quality Assessment With Particular Reference to Particulates in Western Part of Jharia Coalfield, India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gurdeep Singh

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available India is in the list of fastest growing countries of the world. India's energy needs are also increasing due to population and industrial growth for improving quality of living style. In India, coal is major input infrastructure industries for example Power plants, Steel plants and Cement industries. India’s 52% of primary energy is coal dependent1. 66% of India's power generation depends upon coal production1. Jharia Coalfield (JCF is falling in the Lower Gondwana Coalfields of India. The area of the JCF is about 450 km2. It is important for the major supply of precious coking coal required for steel plants in India. It is located in Dhanbad district of Jharkhand state of India, The latitude is 23° 39' to 23° 48' N and longitude is 86° 11' to 86° 27' E for the Jharia coalfield. Based on environmental parameters, all the 103 mines of BCCL have been grouped under 17 Clusters. A cluster consists of a group of mines with mine lease boundary lying in close vicinity and includes-Operating mines, Abandoned/ closed mines and proposed projects.The focused study area is in the western part of the Jharia coalfield is named as Cluster XV group of mines of BCCL consists of four mines, Kharkharee Colliery (UG, Dharmaband Colliery (UG, Madhuband Colliery (UG and Phularitand Colliery (UG .The present study was carried out with the objective to measure the ambient air quality of the study area with reference to particulate matter (SPM, PM10 & PM2.5. Ambient air monitoring results have shown that the observe air quality were found within the limit prescribed by MoEF / CPCB. It may due to Underground mines as there are pollution causing lesser activities involved in the UG mining process compared to opencast mining. Implementation of Master plan for Jharia coalfields for environmental management has also improve the air quality in the area10,11.

  5. Risk assessment in poisoning with special reference to odollam and organophosphorous compounds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meenu M. Tergestina

    2016-08-01

    Results: The most commonly ingested poisons were odollam (26% and organophosphorous compounds (22%. The overall mortality was 22%. Mortality was highest in organophosphorus compounds (38% and odollam (33% compared to other causes. Hyperkalemia, low systolic blood pressure, consumption of poison in powder or paste form, delayed presentation, bradycardia and extensive chest signs correlated with mortality in odollam and organophosphorous compound poisoning. Conclusions: Poisoning with odollam or organophosphorous compounds is an increasingly common life threatening condition. Markers of mortality identified in this study were incorporated into a simple scale for assessment of risk, namely the PoPPER scale: potassium level >5.5 mE/L, systolic blood pressure <90 mmHg, paste/powder form of poison ingestion, extremely late presentation, rate of QRS <40/min or impending respiratory paralysis. [Int J Res Med Sci 2016; 4(8.000: 3172-3175

  6. Ethical and social aspects of integral risk assessment in reference to nuclear energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    As a rule, the risks connected with the use of nuclear energy are assessed as isolated factors. Sterotypically the economic benefits and residual risks are weighed against one another and assessed differently. Within the framework of an integral understanding of the problem, the significance of nuclear energy should be considered to be of prime priority when it comes to the serious problems which humanity is confronted with, i.e.: - ecological stability, - climatic stability, - keeping peace, - prevention of large-scale epidemics, - conservation of our resources for the generations to come, - making existence fit for human beings. The author comes to the conclusion that the risks which would result from dispensing with nuclear energy world-wide are a millionfold greater than are the risks which would result from extending the use of nuclear energy world-wide, not only as regards the loss of human lives, but also as regards the amount of land which might become uninhabitable long-term. The author advocates employing ethical arguments which are based on ethical goals and are rational, economical and promise to show the best way of fulfilling mutual ehtical goals satisfactorily in an objective way. The author sees problems as regards the distortion of truth and its misuse by cynics, opportunists, etc. Social aspects must be subjected to ethical scrutiny as well. On the whole it is important to overcome deficits in the communication between technically and scientifically oriented people and those who view it as their task to reflect upon the meaning behind the issue at hand (clergymen, journalists, politicians, etc.). (orig./HSCH)

  7. Experimental validation of the buildings energy performance (PEC assessment methods with reference to occupied spaces heating

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristian PETCU

    2010-01-01

    provided by measurements and to those provided by the monthly calculation (NP 048-2006. The deviations of 1.45% and 2.2% respectively validate the hourly calculation model, as they actually have no physical significance. The report presents a phenomenological analysis of the building transfer functions synthesized as tev (τ, functions which attest their phenomenological objectivity in macro and hourly terms. The case studies completing the calculation models experimental validation emphasize unacceptably large differences between the results provided by the use of standardized calculation methods (Mc 001 / 2-2006 and SR EN 13790:2009 and those specific to the methods referred to in this report, experimentally validated.

  8. Aplicação das Dietary Reference Intakes na avaliação da ingestão de nutrientes para indivíduos Application of Dietary Reference Intakes for assessment of individuals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dirce Maria Lobo Marchioni

    2004-06-01

    Full Text Available A avaliação do estado nutricional é uma das práticas clínicas fundamentais para tomar-se a decisão quanto ao diagnóstico nutricional de um indivíduo e à conduta dietética a ser-lhe prescrita. A adequação da ingestão de nutrientes é um dos componentes da avaliação nutricional e é feita a partir de valores de referência que se constituem em estimativas das necessidades fisiológicas desses nutrientes e metas de ingestão dos mesmos. Colocam-se hoje à disposição dos profissionais um novo conjunto de valores de referência que constituem um avanço importante no modo de interpretar a adequação dietética: as Dietary Reference Intakes. Este artigo aborda os métodos propostos para avaliação da adequação da ingestão de nutriente às necessidades do indivíduo, utilizando os novos valores de referências.The nutritional status assessment is one of the fundamental clinical approaches in making a decision about nutritional diagnosis and dietetic behavior, in order to prescribe an adequate diet therapy. The evaluation of nutrient intakes is a component of the nutritional assessment and it is made from estimates of nutrient physiological needs and goals for good nutrition, known as reference values. A new group of reference values is recently available for health professionals: the Dietary Reference Intakes, which represent an important progress in the field of dietary assessment interpretation. This paper discusses the proposed methods for the individual nutrient intake assessment, using the Dietary Reference Intakes.

  9. Preliminary assessment of several parameters to measure and compare usefulness of the CEOS reference pseudo-invariant calibration sites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chander, Gyanesh; Angal, Amit; Xiong, Xiaoxiong; Helder, Dennis L.; Mishra, Nischal; Choi, Taeyoung; Wu, Aisheng

    2010-01-01

    Test sites are central to any future quality assurance and quality control (QA/QC) strategy. The Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS) Working Group for Calibration and Validation (WGCV) Infrared Visible Optical Sensors (IVOS) worked with collaborators around the world to establish a core set of CEOS-endorsed, globally distributed, reference standard test sites (both instrumented and pseudo-invariant) for the post-launch calibration of space-based optical imaging sensors. The pseudo-invariant calibration sites (PICS) have high reflectance and are usually made up of sand dunes with low aerosol loading and practically no vegetation. The goal of this paper is to provide preliminary assessment of "several parameters" than can be used on an operational basis to compare and measure usefulness of reference sites all over the world. The data from Landsat 7 (L7) Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) and the Earth Observing-1 (EO-1) Hyperion sensors over the CEOS PICS were used to perform a preliminary assessment of several parameters, such as usable area, data availability, top-of-atmosphere (TOA) reflectance, at-sensor brightness temperature, spatial uniformity, temporal stability, spectral stability, and typical spectrum observed over the sites.

  10. An eco-hydrological modeling framework for assessing trade-offs among ecosystem services in response to alternative land use scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mckane, R.; Abdelnour, A. G.; Brookes, A.; Djang, K.; Stieglitz, M.; Pan, F.; Bolte, J.; Papenfus, M.; Burdick, C.

    2012-12-01

    Scientists, policymakers, community planners and others have discussed ecosystem services for decades, however, society is still in the early stages of developing methodologies to quantify and value the services that ecosystems provide. For example, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency recently established the Sustainable and Healthy Communities Research Program to develop such methodologies, so that natural capital can be better accounted for in decisions that affect the supply of the ecosystem goods and services upon which human well-being depends. Essential to this goal are highly integrated models that can be used to define policy and management strategies for entire ecosystems, not simply individual components of the ecosystem. We developed the VELMA (Visualizing Ecosystems for Land Management Assessments) eco-hydrologic modeling framework to help address this emerging risk assessment objective. Here we describe a proof-of-concept application of VELMA to the H.J. Andrews Experimental Forest, a forested 64 km2 basin and Long Term Ecological Research site in the western Cascade Range of Oregon, USA. VELMA is a spatially-distributed eco-hydrologic model that links a land surface hydrologic model with a terrestrial biogeochemistry model for simulating the integrated responses of vegetation, soil, and water resources to interacting stressors. We used the model to simulate the effects of three different land use scenarios (100% old-growth, 100% clearcut harvest, and present-day land cover consisting of 45% old-growth and 55% harvested) on trade-offs among five ecosystem services: timber production, carbon sequestration, greenhouse gas regulation, water quantity, and water quality. Compared to the old-growth simulation, over a 60-yr period the clearcut simulation reduced total ecosystem carbon stocks (-40%), and initially increased total stream discharge (+28%), stream nitrogen export (>300%), and total CO2 and N2O radiative forcing (>200%). The simulation for

  11. Selection and assessment of reference genes for quantitative PCR normalization in migratory locust Locusta migratoria (Orthoptera: Acrididae.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qingpo Yang

    Full Text Available Locusta migratoria is a classic hemimetamorphosis insect and has caused widespread economic damage to crops as a migratory pest. Researches on the expression pattern of functional genes in L. migratoria have drawn focus in recent years, especially with the release of genome information. Real-time quantitative PCR is the most reproducible and sensitive approach for detecting transcript expression levels of target genes, but optimal internal standards are key factors for its accuracy and reliability. Therefore, it's necessary to provide a systematic stability assessment of internal control for well-performed tests of target gene expression profile. In this study, twelve candidate genes (Ach, Act, Cht2, EF1α, RPL32, Hsp70, Tub, RP49, SDH, GAPDH, 18S, and His were analyzed with four statistical methods: the delta Ct approach, geNorm, Bestkeeper and NormFinder. The results from these analyses aimed to choose the best suitable reference gene across different experimental situations for gene profile study in L. migratoria. The result demonstrated that for different developmental stages, EF1α, Hsp70 and RPL32 exhibited the most stable expression status for all samples; EF1α and RPL32 were selected as the best reference genes for studies involving embryo and larvae stages, while SDH and RP49 were identified for adult stage. The best-ranked reference genes across different tissues are RPL32, Hsp70 and RP49. For abiotic treatments, the most appropriate genes we identified were as follows: Act and SDH for larvae subjected to different insecticides; RPL32 and Ach for larvae exposed to different temperature treatments; and Act and Ach for larvae suffering from starvation. The present report should facilitate future researches on gene expression in L. migratoria with accessibly optimal reference genes under different experimental contexts.

  12. CVD2014-A Database for Evaluating No-Reference Video Quality Assessment Algorithms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nuutinen, Mikko; Virtanen, Toni; Vaahteranoksa, Mikko; Vuori, Tero; Oittinen, Pirkko; Hakkinen, Jukka

    2016-07-01

    In this paper, we present a new video database: CVD2014-Camera Video Database. In contrast to previous video databases, this database uses real cameras rather than introducing distortions via post-processing, which results in a complex distortion space in regard to the video acquisition process. CVD2014 contains a total of 234 videos that are recorded using 78 different cameras. Moreover, this database contains the observer-specific quality evaluation scores rather than only providing mean opinion scores. We have also collected open-ended quality descriptions that are provided by the observers. These descriptions were used to define the quality dimensions for the videos in CVD2014. The dimensions included sharpness, graininess, color balance, darkness, and jerkiness. At the end of this paper, a performance study of image and video quality algorithms for predicting the subjective video quality is reported. For this performance study, we proposed a new performance measure that accounts for observer variance. The performance study revealed that there is room for improvement regarding the video quality assessment algorithms. The CVD2014 video database has been made publicly available for the research community. All video sequences and corresponding subjective ratings can be obtained from the CVD2014 project page (http://www.helsinki.fi/psychology/groups/visualcognition/). PMID:27164589

  13. Scenarios Based on Shared Socioeconomic Pathway Assumptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edmonds, J.

    2013-12-01

    A set of new scenarios is being developed by the international scientific community as part of a larger program that was articulated in Moss, et al. (2009), published in Nature. A long series of meetings including climate researchers drawn from the climate modeling, impacts, adaptation and vulnerability (IAV) and integrated assessment modeling (IAM) communities have led to the development of a set of five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), which define the state of human and natural societies at a macro scale over the course of the 21st century without regard to climate mitigation or change. SSPs were designed to explore a range of possible futures consistent with greater or lesser challenges to mitigation and challenges to adaptation. They include a narrative storyline and a set of quantified measures--e.g. demographic and economic profiles--that define the high-level state of society as it evolves over the 21st century under the assumption of no significant climate feedback. SSPs can be used to develop quantitative scenarios of human Earth systems using IAMs. IAMs produce information about greenhouse gas emissions, energy systems, the economy, agriculture and land use. Each set of SSPs will have a different human Earth system realization for each IAM. Five groups from the IAM community have begun to explore the implications of SSP assumptions for emissions, energy, economy, agriculture and land use. We report the quantitative results of initial experiments from those groups. A major goal of the Moss, et al. strategy was to enable the use of CMIP5 climate model ensemble products for IAV research. CMIP5 climate scenarios used four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, defined in terms of radiative forcing in the year 2100: 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 Wm-2. There is no reason to believe that the SSPs will generate year 2100 levels of radiative forcing that correspond to the four RCP levels, though it is important that at least one SSP produce a

  14. Developing a CBA Methodology for the Scenario-Based Land-Use Impact Assessment of Proposed Rail Investments in the Leipzig Region

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ustaoglu, Eda; Williams, Brndan; Petrov, Laura Oana

    2012-01-01

    Model applications. The land-use scenarios considered in this research are a baseline scenario of dispersed development and an alternative scenario of more compact urban developments associated with potential rapid rail provisions in the Leipzig Region. The appraisal of transport-land-use relationships...... is subject to the use of economic indicators and can be evaluated based on alternative land development scenarios developed for the Leipzig Area. In this context, key elements of a Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) approach will be developed for the evaluation of potential costs of urban rail provisions with its...

  15. Code strategy for simulating Severe Accident Scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Severe accident scenarios of Sodium-cooled fast reactors involves various phenomena: core degradation, melt progression towards the core catcher, corium behaviour on the core catcher, energetic corium/sodium interactions, structure mechanical behaviour during expansion phase, containment behaviour, and fission production release and transport. In order to simulate the complete accident scenarios, CEA strategy relies on two sets of calculation codes: a reference set of codes and a set of simplified coupled models dedicated to Probabilistic Risk Assessment analyses. Concerning the reference set, that includes SAS-SFR, SIMMER, CONTAIN, EUROPLEXUS, and TOLBIAC, CEA started, with JAEA and KIT, a validation process based on existing experimental results such as CABRI and SCARABEE programs, and recently against the EAGLE1&2 program results, in the frame of a specific contract with JAEA. Furthermore, CEA is preparing additional experimental programs including in-pile experiments in IGR (NNC reactor), and out-of-pile experiments in the future experimental FOURNAISE facility to be built in CEA Cadarache (France). (author)

  16. Modeling wetland plant community response to assess water-level regulation scenarios in the Lake Ontario-St. Lawrence River basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hudon, Christiane; Wilcox, Douglas; Ingram, Joel

    2006-01-01

    The International Joint Commission has recently completed a five-year study (2000-2005) to review the operation of structures controlling the flows and levels of the Lake Ontario - St. Lawrence River system. In addition to addressing the multitude of stakeholder interests, the regulation plan review also considers environmental sustainability and integrity of wetlands and various ecosystem components. The present paper outlines the general approach, scientific methodology and applied management considerations of studies quantifying the relationships between hydrology and wetland plant assemblages (% occurrence, surface area) in Lake Ontario and the Upper and Lower St. Lawrence River. Although similar study designs were used across the study region, different methodologies were required that were specifically adapted to suit the important regional differences between the lake and river systems, range in water-level variations, and confounding factors (geomorphic types, exposure, sediment characteristics, downstream gradient of water quality, origin of water masses in the Lower River). Performance indicators (metrics), such as total area of wetland in meadow marsh vegetation type, that link wetland response to water levels will be used to assess the effects of different regulation plans under current and future (climate change) water-supply scenarios.

  17. NEC-2020 emission reduction scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Slentø, Erik; Nielsen, Ole-Kenneth; Hoffmann, Leif;

    The upcoming NEC-2020 EU directive sets up emission ceilings for NOX, SO2, NH3, NMVOC and PM in order to meet the environmental exposure targets of the Thematic Strategy. This report contains an assessment of intermediary emission reduction scenarios for Denmark, computed by the GAINS model 2007......, which serves as the basis for the pending negotiations in EU. The assessment is brought up to date by including a brief evaluation of the new reduction scenarios published in 2008, founding the European Commission NEC-2020 directive proposal....

  18. WRF model evaluation for the urban heat island assessment under varying land use/land cover and reference site conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhati, Shweta; Mohan, Manju

    2016-10-01

    Urban heat island effect in Delhi has been assessed using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF v3.5) coupled with urban canopy model (UCM) focusing on air temperature and surface skin temperature. The estimated heat island intensities for different land use/land cover (LULC) have been compared with those derived from in situ and satellite observations. The model performs reasonably well for urban heat island intensity (UHI) estimation and is able to reproduce trend of UHI for urban areas. There is a significant improvement in model performance with inclusion of UCM which results in reduction in root mean-squared errors (RMSE) for temperatures from 1.63 °C (2.89 °C) to 1.13 °C (2.75 °C) for urban (non-urban) areas. Modification of LULC also improves performance for non-urban areas. High UHI zones and top 3 hotspots are captured well by the model. The relevance of selecting a reference point at the periphery of the city away from populated and built-up areas for UHI estimation is examined in the context of rapidly growing cities where rural areas are transforming fast into built-up areas, and reference site may not be appropriate for future years. UHI estimated by WRF model (with and without UCM) with respect to reference rural site compares well with the UHI based on observed in situ data. An alternative methodology is explored using a green area with minimum temperature within the city as a reference site. This alternative methodology works well with observed UHIs and WRF-UCM-simulated UHIs but has poor performance for WRF-simulated UHIs. It is concluded that WRF model can be applied for UHI estimation with classical methodology based on rural reference site. In general, many times WRF model performs satisfactorily, though WRF-UCM always shows a better performance. Hence, inclusion of appropriate representation of urban canopies and land use-land cover is important for improving predictive capabilities of the mesoscale models.

  19. Long-range hazard assessment of volcanic ash dispersal for a Plinian eruptive scenario at Popocatépetl volcano (Mexico): implications for civil aviation safety

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonasia, Rosanna; Scaini, Chirara; Capra, Lucia; Nathenson, Manuel; Siebe, Claus; Arana-Salinas, Lilia; Folch, Arnau

    2013-01-01

    Popocatépetl is one of Mexico’s most active volcanoes threatening a densely populated area that includes Mexico City with more than 20 million inhabitants. The destructive potential of this volcano is demonstrated by its Late Pleistocene–Holocene eruptive activity, which has been characterized by recurrent Plinian eruptions of large magnitude, the last two of which destroyed human settlements in pre-Hispanic times. Popocatépetl’s reawakening in 1994 produced a crisis that culminated with the evacuation of two villages on the northeastern flank of the volcano. Shortly after, a monitoring system and a civil protection contingency plan based on a hazard zone map were implemented. The current volcanic hazards map considers the potential occurrence of different volcanic phenomena, including pyroclastic density currents and lahars. However, no quantitative assessment of the tephra hazard, especially related to atmospheric dispersal, has been performed. The presence of airborne volcanic ash at low and jet-cruise atmospheric levels compromises the safety of aircraft operations and forces re-routing of aircraft to prevent encounters with volcanic ash clouds. Given the high number of important airports in the surroundings of Popocatépetl volcano and considering the potential threat posed to civil aviation in Mexico and adjacent regions in case of a Plinian eruption, a hazard assessment for tephra dispersal is required. In this work, we present the first probabilistic tephra dispersal hazard assessment for Popocatépetl volcano. We compute probabilistic hazard maps for critical thresholds of airborne ash concentrations at different flight levels, corresponding to the situation defined in Europe during 2010, and still under discussion. Tephra dispersal mode is performed using the FALL3D numerical model. Probabilistic hazard maps are built for a Plinian eruptive scenario defined on the basis of geological field data for the “Ochre Pumice” Plinian eruption (4965 14C

  20. Assessment of spatiotemporal variations in the fluvial wash-load component in the 21st century with regard to GCM climate change scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    For stream water, in which a relationship exists between wash-load concentration and discharge, an estimate of fine-sediment delivery may be obtained from a traditional fluvial wash-load rating curve. Here, we demonstrate that the remaining wash-load material load can be estimated from a traditional empirical principle on a nationwide scale. The traditional technique was applied to stream water for the whole of Japan. Four typical GCMs were selected from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble to provide the driving fields for the following regional climate models to assess the wash-load component based on rating curves: the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC), the Meteorological Research Institute Atmospheric General Circulation Model (MRI-GCM), the Hadley Centre Global Environment Model (HadGEM) and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) climate model. The simulations consisted of an ensemble, including multiple physics configurations and different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), which was used to produce monthly datasets for the whole country of Japan. The impacts of future climate changes on fluvial wash load in Japanese stream water were based on the balance of changes in hydrological factors. The annual and seasonal variations of the fluvial wash load were assessed from the result of the ensemble analysis in consideration of the Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emission scenarios. The determined results for the amount of wash load increase range from approximately 20 to 110% in the 2040s, especially along part of the Pacific Ocean and the Sea of Japan regions. In the 2090s, the amount of wash load is projected to increase by more than 50% over the whole of Japan. The assessment indicates that seasonal variation is particularly important because the rainy and typhoon seasons, which include extreme events, are the dominant seasons. Because fluvial wash-load-component turbidity

  1. Assessment of spatiotemporal variations in the fluvial wash-load component in the 21st century with regard to GCM climate change scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mouri, Goro, E-mail: mouri@rainbow.iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp

    2015-11-15

    For stream water, in which a relationship exists between wash-load concentration and discharge, an estimate of fine-sediment delivery may be obtained from a traditional fluvial wash-load rating curve. Here, we demonstrate that the remaining wash-load material load can be estimated from a traditional empirical principle on a nationwide scale. The traditional technique was applied to stream water for the whole of Japan. Four typical GCMs were selected from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble to provide the driving fields for the following regional climate models to assess the wash-load component based on rating curves: the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC), the Meteorological Research Institute Atmospheric General Circulation Model (MRI-GCM), the Hadley Centre Global Environment Model (HadGEM) and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) climate model. The simulations consisted of an ensemble, including multiple physics configurations and different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), which was used to produce monthly datasets for the whole country of Japan. The impacts of future climate changes on fluvial wash load in Japanese stream water were based on the balance of changes in hydrological factors. The annual and seasonal variations of the fluvial wash load were assessed from the result of the ensemble analysis in consideration of the Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emission scenarios. The determined results for the amount of wash load increase range from approximately 20 to 110% in the 2040s, especially along part of the Pacific Ocean and the Sea of Japan regions. In the 2090s, the amount of wash load is projected to increase by more than 50% over the whole of Japan. The assessment indicates that seasonal variation is particularly important because the rainy and typhoon seasons, which include extreme events, are the dominant seasons. Because fluvial wash-load-component turbidity

  2. Area-Based COI-Referred Rotor Angle Index for Transient Stability Assessment and Control of Power Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Noor Izzri Abdul Wahab

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes an index for judging the severity of transient events of power systems in simulation. The proposed transient stability index, known as the area-based COI-referred rotor angle index, is developed by considering the fact that a large-sized power system is divided into several areas according to the coherency of generators in a particular area. It can be assumed that an equivalent single large machine can represent all the generators in that area. Thus, the assessment of rotor angles for all generators can be simplified by only assessing the index of areas in a power system. The effectiveness of the proposed index in assessing the stability of power systems and its ability in pinpointing the weakest area in the power system is analyzed. Furthermore, this paper developed an emergency control scheme known as the combined UFLS and generator tripping in order to stabilize the system when unstable faults occurred in a power system. The proposed index is used to identify the generator to be tripped when the developed emergency control scheme operates. The performance of the proposed index and the combined UFLS and generator tripping scheme are evaluated on the IEEE 39-bus test system.

  3. Columnar modelling of nucleation burst evolution in the convective boundary layer – first results from a feasibility study Part III: Preliminary results on physicochemical model performance using two "clean air mass" reference scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. Hellmuth

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available In Paper I of four papers, a revised columnar high-order model to investigate gas-aerosol-turbulence interactions in the convective boundary layer (CBL was proposed. In Paper II, the model capability to predict first-, second- and third-order moments of meteorological variables in the CBL was demonstrated using available observational data. In the present Paper III, the high-order modelling concept is extended to sulphur and ammonia chemistry as well as to aerosol dynamics. Based on the previous CBL simulation, a feasibility study is performed using two "clean air mass" scenarios with an emission source at the ground but low aerosol background concentration. Such scenarios synoptically correspond to the advection of fresh post-frontal air in an anthropogenically influenced region. The aim is to evaluate the time-height evolution of ultrafine condensation nuclei (UCNs and to elucidate the interactions between meteorological and physicochemical variables in a CBL column. The scenarios differ in the treatment of new particle formation (NPF, whereas homogeneous nucleation according to the classical nucleation theory (CNT is considered. The first scenario considers nucleation of a binary system consisting of water vapour and sulphuric acid (H2SO4 vapour, the second one nucleation of a ternary system additionally involving ammonia (NH3. Here, the two synthetic scenarios are discussed in detail, whereas special attention is payed to the role of turbulence in the formation of the typical UCN burst behaviour, that can often be observed in the surface layer. The intercomparison of the two scenarios reveals large differences in the evolution of the UCN number concentration in the surface layer as well as in the time-height cross-sections of first-order moments and double correlation terms. Although in both cases the occurrence of NPF bursts could be simulated, the burst characteristics and genesis of the bursts are completely different. It is demonstrated

  4. Assessing the impact of non-tidal atmospheric loading on a Kalman filter-based terrestrial reference frame

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abbondanza, Claudio; Altamimi, Zuheir; Chin, Toshio; Collilieux, Xavier; Dach, Rolf; Gross, Richard; Heflin, Michael; König, Rolf; Lemoine, Frank; Macmillan, Dan; Parker, Jay; van Dam, Tonie; Wu, Xiaoping

    2014-05-01

    The International Terrestrial Reference Frame (ITRF) adopts a piece-wise linear model to parameterize regularized station positions and velocities. The space-geodetic (SG) solutions from VLBI, SLR, GPS and DORIS used as input in the ITRF combination process account for tidal loading deformations, but ignore the non-tidal part. As a result, the non-linear signal observed in the time series of SG-derived station positions in part reflects non-tidal loading displacements not introduced in the SG data reduction. In this analysis, we assess the impact of non-tidal atmospheric loading (NTAL) corrections on the TRF computation. Focusing on the a-posteriori approach, (i) the NTAL model derived from the National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) surface pressure is removed from the SINEX files of the SG solutions used as inputs to the TRF determinations; (ii) adopting a Kalman-filter based approach, two distinct linear TRFs are estimated combining the 4 SG solutions with (corrected TRF solution) and without the NTAL displacements (standard TRF solution). Linear fits (offset and atmospheric velocity) of the NTAL displacements removed during step (i) are estimated accounting for the station position discontinuities introduced in the SG solutions and adopting different weighting strategies. The NTAL-derived (atmospheric) velocity fields are compared to those obtained from the TRF reductions during step (ii). The consistency between the atmospheric and the TRF-derived velocity fields is examined. We show how the presence of station position discontinuities in SG solutions degrades the agreement between the velocity fields and compare the effect of different weighting structure adopted while estimating the linear fits to the NTAL displacements. Finally, we evaluate the effect of restoring the atmospheric velocities determined through the linear fits of the NTAL displacements to the single-technique linear reference frames obtained by stacking the standard SG SINEX files

  5. Ambulatory Blood Pressure Monitoring (ABPM) as the reference standard for diagnosis of hypertension and assessment of vascular risk in adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hermida, Ramón C; Smolensky, Michael H; Ayala, Diana E; Portaluppi, Francesco

    2015-01-01

    New information has become available since the ISC, AAMCC, and SECAC released their first extensive guidedelines to improve the diagnosis and treatment of adult arterial hypertension. A critical assessment of evidence and a comparison of what international guidelines now propose are the basis for the following statements, which update the recommendations first issued in 2013. Office blood pressure (BP) measurements should no longer be considered to be the "gold standard" for the diagnosis of hypertension and assessment of cardiovascular risk. Relying on office BP, even when supplemented with at-home wake-time self-measurements, to identify high-risk individuals, disregarding circadian BP patterning and asleep BP level, leads to potential misclassification of 50% of all evaluated persons. Accordingly, ambulatory BP monitoring is the recommended reference standard for the diagnosis of true hypertension and accurate assessment of cardiovascular risk in all adults ≥18 yrs of age, regardless of whether office BP is normal or elevated. Asleep systolic BP mean is the most significant independent predictor of cardiovascular events. The sleep-time relative SBP decline adds prognostic value to the statistical model that already includes the asleep systolic BP mean and corrected for relevant confounding variables. Accordingly, the asleep systolic BP mean is the recommended protocol to diagnose hypertension, assess cardiovascular risk, and predict cardiovascular event-free interval. In men, and in the absence of compelling clinical conditions, reference thresholds for diagnosing hypertension are 120/70 mmHg for the asleep systolic/diastolic BP means derived from ambulatory BP monitoring. However, in women, in the absence of complicating co-morbidities, the same thresholds are lower by 10/5 mmHg, i.e., 110/65 mmHg for the asleep means. In high-risk patients, including those diagnosed with diabetes or chronic kidney disease, and/or those having experienced past

  6. TURVA-2012: Formulation of radionuclide release scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    TURVA-2012 is Posiva's safety case in support of the Preliminary Safety Analysis Report (PSAR) and application for a construction licence for a repository for disposal of spent nuclear fuel at the Olkiluoto site in south-western Finland. This paper gives a summary of the scenarios and the methodology followed in formulating them as described in TURVA-2012: Formulation of Radionuclide Release Scenarios (Posiva, 2013). The scenarios are further analysed in TURVA-2012: Assessment of Radionuclide Release Scenarios for the Repository System and TURVA-2012: Biosphere Assessment (Posiva, 2012a, 2012b). The formulation of scenarios takes into account the safety functions of the main barriers of the repository system and the uncertainties in the features, events, and processes (FEP) that may affect the entire disposal system (i.e. repository system plus the surface environment) from the emplacement of the first canister until the far future. In the report TURVA-2012: Performance Assessment (2012d), the performance of the engineered and natural barriers has been assessed against the loads expected during the evolution of the repository system and the site. Uncertainties have been identified and these are taken into account in the formulation of radionuclide release scenarios. The uncertainties in the FEP and evolution of the surface environment are taken into account in formulating the surface environment scenarios used ultimately in estimating radiation exposure. Formulating radionuclide release scenarios for the repository system links the reports Performance Assessment and Assessment of Radionuclide Release Scenarios for the Repository System. The formulation of radionuclide release scenarios for the surface environment brings together biosphere description and the surface environment FEP and is the link to the assessment of the surface environment scenarios summarised in TURVA-2012: Biosphere Assessment. (authors)

  7. National Coal Utilization Assessment. a preliminary assessment of the health and environmental effects of coal utilization in the Midwest. Volume I. Energy scenarios, technology characterizations, air and water resource impacts, and health effects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1977-01-01

    This report presents an initial evaluation of the major health and environmental issues associated with increased coal use in the six midwestern states of Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, and Wisconsin. Using an integrated assessment approach, the evaluation proceeds from a base-line scenario of energy demand and facility siting for 1975-2020. Emphasis is placed on impacts from coal extraction, land reclamation, coal combustion for electrical generation, and coal gasification. The range of potential impacts and constraints is illustrated by a second scenario that represents an expected upper limit for coal utilization in Illinois. The following are among the more significant issues identified and evaluated in this study: If environmental and related issues can be resolved, coal will continue to be a major source of energy for the Midwest; existing sulfur emission constraints will increase use of western coal; the resource requirements and environmental impacts of coal utilization will require major significant environmental and economic tradeoffs in site selection; short-term (24-hr) ambient standards for sulfur dioxide will limit the sizes of coal facilities or require advanced control technologies; an impact on public health may result from long-range transport of airborne sulfur emissions from coal facilities in the Midwest; inadequately controlled effluents from coal gasification may cause violations of water-quality standards; the major ecological effects of coal extraction are from pre-mining and post-reclamation land use; and sulfur dioxide is the major potential contributor to effects on vegetation of atmospheric emissions from coal facilities.

  8. Assessment of Daily Food and Nutrient Intake in Japanese Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Patients Using Dietary Reference Intakes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Naoto Nakamura

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Medical nutrition therapy for the management of diabetes plays an important role in preventing diabetes complications and managing metabolic control. However, little is known about actual eating habits of individuals with type 2 diabetic mellitus (T2DM, especially in Japan. Therefore, we sought to (1 assess the dietary intake of individuals with T2DM, and (2 characterize their intake relative to national recommendations. This cross-sectional study involved 149 patients (77 males and 72 females aged 40–79 years with T2DM recruited at a Kyoto hospital. Dietary intake was assessed using a validated self-administered diet history questionnaire. Under-consumption, adequacy, and over-consumption, of nutrients were compared to the age- and sex-based standards of the Japanese Dietary Reference Intakes. Among the results, most notable are (1 the inadequacy of diets in men with respect to intake of vitamins and minerals, likely owing to low intake of vegetables and fruits; (2 excess contributions of fat intake to total energy in both sexes; and (3 excess consumption of sweets and beverages relative to the national average. The prevalence of diabetes complications may be increasing because of a major gap between the typical dietary intake of individuals with T2DM and dietary recommendation.

  9. Downscaling socio-economic prospective scenarios with a participatory approach for assessing the possible impacts of future land use and cover changes on the vulnerability of societies to mountain risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grémont, Marine; Houet, Thomas

    2015-04-01

    Due to the peculiarities of their landscapes and topography, mountain areas bring together a large range of socio-economic activities whose sustainability is likely to be jeopardised by projected global changes. Disturbance of hydro-meteorological processes will alter slope stability and affect mountain hazards occurrence. Meanwhile, socio-economic transformations will influence land use and cover changes (LUCC), which in turn will affect both hazards occurrence and hazards consequences on buildings, infrastructures and societies. Already faced with recurrent natural hazards, mountain areas will have to cope with increasing natural risks in the future. Better understanding the pathways through which future socio-economic changes might influence LUCC at local scale is thus a crucial step to assess accurately the vulnerability and adaptive capacity of societies to mountain risks in a global change context. Scientists face two main issues in assessing spatially explicit impacts of socio-economic scenarios in mountainous landscapes. First, modelling LUCC at local scale still faces many challenges related to past (observed) LUCC and those to consider in the future in terms of dynamics and processes. Second, downscaling global socio-economic scenarios