WorldWideScience

Sample records for assessment reference scenario

  1. Reference Scenario Forecasting: A New Approach to Transport Project Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang; Leleur, Steen; Skougaard, Britt Zoëga

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents a new approach to transport project assessment in terms of feasibility risk assessment and reference class forecasting. Normally, transport project assessment is based upon a cost-benefit approach where evaluation criteria such as net present values are obtained. Recent research...... has however proved that substantial inaccuracies are present when obtaining the monetary input to the cost-benefit analysis, particularly as concerns the construction costs and demand forecasts. This paper proposes a new approach in order to assess these biases in a so-called reference scenario...

  2. Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: MA Scenarios

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: MA Scenarios provide useful insight into the complex factors that drive ecosystem change, estimating the magnitude of regional...

  3. Biomass Scenario Model Documentation: Data and References

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lin, Y.; Newes, E.; Bush, B.; Peterson, S.; Stright, D.

    2013-05-01

    The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a system dynamics model that represents the entire biomass-to-biofuels supply chain, from feedstock to fuel use. The BSM is a complex model that has been used for extensive analyses; the model and its results can be better understood if input data used for initialization and calibration are well-characterized. It has been carefully validated and calibrated against the available data, with data gaps filled in using expert opinion and internally consistent assumed values. Most of the main data sources that feed into the model are recognized as baseline values by the industry. This report documents data sources and references in Version 2 of the BSM (BSM2), which only contains the ethanol pathway, although subsequent versions of the BSM contain multiple conversion pathways. The BSM2 contains over 12,000 total input values, with 506 distinct variables. Many of the variables are opportunities for the user to define scenarios, while others are simply used to initialize a stock, such as the initial number of biorefineries. However, around 35% of the distinct variables are defined by external sources, such as models or reports. The focus of this report is to provide insight into which sources are most influential in each area of the supply chain.

  4. Identification of reference accident scenarios in SEVESO establishments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Delvosalle, C. [Faculte Polytechnique de Mons, Major Risk Research Centre (MRRC), 56, rue de l' epargne, 7000 Mons (Belgium)]. E-mail: christian.delvosalle@fpms.ac.be; Fievez, C. [Faculte Polytechnique de Mons, Major Risk Research Centre (MRRC), 56, rue de l' epargne, 7000 Mons (Belgium); Pipart, A. [Faculte Polytechnique de Mons, Major Risk Research Centre (MRRC), 56, rue de l' epargne, 7000 Mons (Belgium); Fabrega, J. Casal [Department of Chemical Engineering, Center for Studies of Technological Risk (CERTEC), Universitat Politecnica de Catalunya, Diagonal 647, 08028 Barcelona (Spain); Planas, E. [Department of Chemical Engineering, Center for Studies of Technological Risk (CERTEC), Universitat Politecnica de Catalunya, Diagonal 647, 08028 Barcelona (Spain); Christou, M. [European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Institute for Systems, Informatics and Safety, T.P. 670, Ispra I-21020, Va (Italy); Mushtaq, F. [European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Institute for Systems, Informatics and Safety, T.P. 670, Ispra I-21020, Va (Italy)

    2005-12-01

    In the frame of the ESREL special session on ARAMIS project, this paper aims at presenting the work carried out in the first Work Package, devoted to the definition of accident scenarios. This topic is a key-point in risk assessment, and serves as basis for the whole risk quantification. A first part of the work aims at building a Methodology for the Identification of Major Accident Hazards (MIMAH), which is carried out with the development of generic fault and event trees based on a typology of equipment and substances. This work is coupled with an historical analysis of accidents. In a second part, influence of safety devices and policies will be considered, in order to build a Methodology for the Identification of Reference Accident Scenarios (MIRAS). This last one will take into account safety systems and lead to obtain more realistic scenarios.

  5. Reference life cycle assessment scenarios for manure management in the Baltic Sea Regions - An assessment covering six animal production, five BSR countries, and four manure types

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hamelin, Lorie; Baky, A; Cano-Bernal, J

    types (fattening pig slurry, dairy cow slurry, hens manure, bulls deep litter, fattening pig solid manure, dairy cow solid manure, horse manure & broilers manure) and five Baltic Sea Regions (Denmark, Sweden, Finland, Estonia, Poland), for a total of 15 reference systems. It presents, for each...... of the manure for all main stages of the manure continuum (e.g. ex-animal, ex-housing, ex-storage). This report was prepared as part of Baltic Manure Work Package 5 - Assessing Sustainability of Manure Technology Chains....

  6. The Reference Scenarios for the Swiss Emergency Planning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hanspeter Isaak; Navert, Stephan B.; Ralph Schulz [Swiss Federal Nuclear Safety Inspectorate CH-5232 Villigen-HSK (Switzerland)

    2006-07-01

    For the purpose of emergency planning and preparedness, realistic reference scenarios and corresponding accident source terms have been defined on the basis of common plant features. Three types of representative reference scenarios encompass the accident sequences expected to be the most probable. Accident source terms are assumed to be identical for all Swiss nuclear power plants, although the plants differ in reactor type and power. Plant-specific probabilistic safety analyses were used to justify the reference scenarios and the postulated accident source terms. From the full spectrum of release categories available, those categories were selected which would be covered by the releases and time frames assumed in the reference scenarios. For each nuclear power plant, the cumulative frequency of accident sequences not covered by the reference scenarios was determined. It was found that the cumulative frequency for such accident sequences does not exceed about 1 x 10{sup -6} per year. The Swiss Federal Nuclear Safety Inspectorate concludes that the postulated accident source terms for the reference scenarios are consistent with the current international approach in emergency planning, where one should concentrate on the most probable accident sequences. (N.C.)

  7. Uncertainty in Integrated Assessment Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mort Webster

    2005-10-17

    The determination of climate policy is a decision under uncertainty. The uncertainty in future climate change impacts is large, as is the uncertainty in the costs of potential policies. Rational and economically efficient policy choices will therefore seek to balance the expected marginal costs with the expected marginal benefits. This approach requires that the risks of future climate change be assessed. The decision process need not be formal or quantitative for descriptions of the risks to be useful. Whatever the decision procedure, a useful starting point is to have as accurate a description of climate risks as possible. Given the goal of describing uncertainty in future climate change, we need to characterize the uncertainty in the main causes of uncertainty in climate impacts. One of the major drivers of uncertainty in future climate change is the uncertainty in future emissions, both of greenhouse gases and other radiatively important species such as sulfur dioxide. In turn, the drivers of uncertainty in emissions are uncertainties in the determinants of the rate of economic growth and in the technologies of production and how those technologies will change over time. This project uses historical experience and observations from a large number of countries to construct statistical descriptions of variability and correlation in labor productivity growth and in AEEI. The observed variability then provides a basis for constructing probability distributions for these drivers. The variance of uncertainty in growth rates can be further modified by expert judgment if it is believed that future variability will differ from the past. But often, expert judgment is more readily applied to projected median or expected paths through time. Analysis of past variance and covariance provides initial assumptions about future uncertainty for quantities that are less intuitive and difficult for experts to estimate, and these variances can be normalized and then applied to mean

  8. The iTREN-2030 reference scenario until 2030. Deliverable D4

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fiorello, Davide; De Stasio, Claudia; Koehler, Jonathan; Kraft, Markus; Netwon, Sean; Purwanto, Joko; Schade, Burkhard; Schade, Wolfgang; Szimba, Eckhard

    2009-07-01

    The basic objective of iTREN-2030 is to extend the forecasting and assessment capabilities of the TRANS-TOOLS transport model to the new policy issues arising from the technology, environment and energy fields. This is achieved by couplin the TRANS-TOOLS model with three other models, ASTRA, POLES and TREMOVE covering these new policy issues. The TRANS-TOOLS transport network model has been developed to constitute the reference tool for supporting transport policy in the EU and currently is being developed in several European projects. The scenario set-up to be developed in iTREN-2030 has been modified, so that the projects develops a reference scenario and an integrated scenario. For the reference scenario, the three other modelling tools are harmonised with TRANS-TOOLS and made consistent with each other. This results in a coherent scenario for Europe until 2030 for technology, transport, energy, environment and economic development. The integrated scenario will consider the changing framework conditions until 2030, inparticular the policy pressure coming from climate policy and the increasing scarcity of fossil fuels as well as the impact of the financial and economic crisis. Within the iTREN-2030 project, the overall objective of Work Package 4 (WP4) producing tis deliverable is to develop the reference scenario for the quantitative projections using the four modelling tools involved in the project. The main aims of WP4 are to (a) define a consistent framework for using the different tools in an integrated way; (b) calibrate models with exchanged input to a coherent joint reference; (c) implement external input from WP3 and running models for projections; (d) produce output procedures and templates to facilitate assessment in WP5.

  9. Development of nonproliferation and assessment scenarios.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Finley, Melissa; Barnett, Natalie Beth

    2005-10-01

    The overall objective of the Nonproliferation and Assessments Scenario Development project is to create and analyze potential and plausible scenarios that would lead to an adversary's ability to acquire and use a biological weapon. The initial three months of funding was intended to be used to develop a scenario to demonstrate the efficacy of this analysis methodology; however, it was determined that a substantial amount of preliminary data collection would be needed before a proof of concept scenario could be developed. We have dedicated substantial effort to determine the acquisition pathways for Foot and Mouth Disease Virus, and similar processes will be applied to all pathogens of interest. We have developed a biosecurity assessments database to capture information on adversary skill locales, available skill sets in specific regions, pathogen sources and regulations involved in pathogen acquisition from legitimate facilities. FY06 funding, once released, will be dedicated to data collection on acquisition, production and dissemination requirements on a pathogen basis. Once pathogen data has been collected, scenarios will be developed and scored.

  10. Probabilistic Climate Scenario Information for Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dairaku, K.; Ueno, G.; Takayabu, I.

    2014-12-01

    Climate information and services for Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability (IAV) Assessments are of great concern. In order to develop probabilistic regional climate information that represents the uncertainty in climate scenario experiments in Japan, we compared the physics ensemble experiments using the 60km global atmospheric model of the Meteorological Research Institute (MRI-AGCM) with multi-model ensemble experiments with global atmospheric-ocean coupled models (CMIP3) of SRES A1b scenario experiments. The MRI-AGCM shows relatively good skills particularly in tropics for temperature and geopotential height. Variability in surface air temperature of physical ensemble experiments with MRI-AGCM was within the range of one standard deviation of the CMIP3 model in the Asia region. On the other hand, the variability of precipitation was relatively well represented compared with the variation of the CMIP3 models. Models which show the similar reproducibility in the present climate shows different future climate change. We couldn't find clear relationships between present climate and future climate change in temperature and precipitation. We develop a new method to produce probabilistic information of climate change scenarios by weighting model ensemble experiments based on a regression model (Krishnamurti et al., Science, 1999). The method can be easily applicable to other regions and other physical quantities, and also to downscale to finer-scale dependent on availability of observation dataset. The prototype of probabilistic information in Japan represents the quantified structural uncertainties of multi-model ensemble experiments of climate change scenarios. Acknowledgments: This study was supported by the SOUSEI Program, funded by Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, Government of Japan.

  11. Assessement of user needs for climate change scenarios in Switzerland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, Andreas; Liniger, Mark; Flückiger-Knutti, Jacqueline

    2016-04-01

    scenarios is, the more important becomes the need of comprehensibility, clarity and support when disseminating new climate scenarios. The survey reveals strongest needs for quantitative information on changes in extremes, an aspect that was handled in a qualitative way only in CH2011. Another cross-sectoral need are physically consistent data in time, space and between several variables. For instance, in agriculture the combination of heat and dryness is an important aspect, while the same is true in the energy sector for the combination of wind speed and global radiation (to assess energy production). The majority of interviewees appreciates to have the new scenarios with respect to the same reference period as in CH2011 due to comparability purposes. The survey also investigated the incorporation of provided scenario uncertainty into the businesses of the users. The survey shows that this largely depends on the type of users: while intensive users often can handle uncertainties, there are a lot of other users that either cannot or purposely do not make use of uncertainty. Results of the user survey will be presented and the consequences for the next generation of Swiss climate change scenarios are discussed.

  12. Reference futures and scenarios for the European forestry wood chain

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Arets, E.J.M.M.; Palosuo, T.; Moiseyev, A.; Nabuurs, G.J.; Slimani, D.; Olsmat, C.; Laurijssen, J.; Mason, B.; McGowan, D.; Vötter, D.

    2008-01-01

    The aim of this document is to define, quantify and downscale the reference futures A1 and B2 to European forest wood chain specific input material. The quantified material serves as consistent input to the model runs in the Modules. The full input material is available on the Eforwood portal.

  13. Risk Assessment Methodology for CO2 Storage: The Scenario Approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wildenborg, A.F.B.; Leijnse, A.L.; Kreft, E.; Nepveu, M.N.; Obdam, A.N.M.; Orlic, B.; Wipfler, E.L.; Grift, B. van der; Kesteren, W. van; Gaus, I.; Czernichowski-Lauriol, I.; Torfs, P.; Wójcik, R.

    2005-01-01

    This chapter introduces a "scenario approach," which is used as a methodology for the long-term safety assessment of underground CO2 storage and to demonstrate its applicability in an example of safety assessment. This developed methodology consists of three main parts-scenario analysis, model

  14. DGEMP-OE (2008) Energy Baseline Scenario. Synthesis report; Scenario energetique de reference DGEMP-OE(2008). Rapport de synthese

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2008-07-01

    A 'Business as usual' or 'Baseline' scenario of energy trends to 2020-2030 is produced by France every four years, as requested by the International Energy Agency in order to update the global scenarios published in its World Energy Outlook. Since the most recent scenario of this type was drawn up in 2003-2004, the time has come to renew the effort for the IEA's next in-depth review of French energy policy. Specifically, the DGEMP seeks to predict the future of France's energy situation assuming that no policies or new measures are taken affecting (i.e. improving or deteriorating) the situation other than those already in place or adopted as of 1 January 2008 (in other words, before measures such as those stemming from the Grenelle Environment Forum). On the other hand, it is assumed that change in the energy system is guided by 'conventional wisdom' according to which political options and behaviours by economic units are expected to be 'reasonable'. As a result, even should its projections prove inappropriate, this cannot be considered a 'worst-case' scenario. Indeed, beyond the IEA, this scenario can be used to establish an MEA (Multilateral Environment Agreement) scenario (based on existing measures) for national communications submitted under the U.N. Climate Convention. The scenarios by the 'Energy' Commission, part of the Centre d'Analyse Strategique (CAS), could have been used, particularly since the consultant who worked with the CAS to develop its scenarios was also commissioned by the DGEMP. However, several considerations argued in favour of proceeding separately: - The CAS scenarios drew on the DGEMP's 2004 baseline scenario, even though certain parameters were updated (in particular energy prices). - Moreover, the concept underpinning the DGEMP baseline scenario is that it should to every extent possible remain constant over time to secure continued consensus on this 'reference

  15. Feature, Event, and Process Screening and Scenario Development for the Yucca Mountain Total System Performance Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barnard, R.; Barr, G.; Burch, P.; Freeze, G.; Rechard, R.; Schenker, A.; Swift, P.

    1999-04-05

    Scenario development has two primary purposes in the design and documentation of post-closure performance assessments in a regulatory setting. First, scenario development ensures a sufficiently comprehensive consideration of the possible future states of the system. Second, scenario development identifies the important scenarios that must be considered in quantitative analyses of the total system performance assessment (TSPA). Section 2.0 of this report describes the scenario development process. Steps in the process are described in Section 2.1, and terms introduced in this section are defined in Section 2.2. The electronic database used to document the process is described in Section 3, and Section 4 provides a summary of the current status of the YMP scenario development work. Section 5 contains acknowledgments, and Section 6 contains a list of the references cited.

  16. Process Risk Assessment using Dynamic Simulation of Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Markert, Frank; Kozin, Igor; Duijm, Nijs Jan

    2016-01-01

    (DES) of the scenarios, which is a Monte Carlo type method. The paper describes the application of DES to conduct the analysis part of a risk assessment that enables better time resolution in the modelling of the specific scenarios, simulate the interactions between concurrent chains of events under...

  17. Scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pérez-Soba, Marta; Maas, Rob

    2015-01-01

    We cannot predict the future with certainty, but we know that it is influenced by our current actions, and that these in turn are influenced by our expectations. This is why future scenarios have existed from the dawn of civilization and have been used for developing military, political and economic

  18. Methods for Developing Emissions Scenarios for Integrated Assessment Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Prinn, Ronald [MIT; Webster, Mort [MIT

    2007-08-20

    The overall objective of this research was to contribute data and methods to support the future development of new emissions scenarios for integrated assessment of climate change. Specifically, this research had two main objectives: 1. Use historical data on economic growth and energy efficiency changes, and develop probability density functions (PDFs) for the appropriate parameters for two or three commonly used integrated assessment models. 2. Using the parameter distributions developed through the first task and previous work, we will develop methods of designing multi-gas emission scenarios that usefully span the joint uncertainty space in a small number of scenarios. Results on the autonomous energy efficiency improvement (AEEI) parameter are summarized, an uncertainty analysis of elasticities of substitution is described, and the probabilistic emissions scenario approach is presented.

  19. Expert assessment concludes negative emissions scenarios may not deliver

    OpenAIRE

    Vaughan, Naomi E; Gough, Clair

    2016-01-01

    Many integrated assessment models (IAMs) rely on the availability and extensive use of biomass energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) to deliver emissions scenarios consistent with limiting climate change to below 2 °C average temperature rise. BECCS has the potential to remove carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere, delivering ‘negative emissions’. The deployment ofBECCS at the scale assumed in IAM scenarios is highly uncertain: biomass energy is commonly used but not at such a sca...

  20. Increasing Interest in Cognitive Psychology Using Scenario-Based Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cormack, Sophie

    2014-01-01

    Students often perceive cognitive psychology as an abstract and difficult subject with little intrinsic interest. When student feedback identified problems with the traditional essay assessment in a cognitive psychology module, action research led to the development of a forensic scenario-based assessment which successfully increased student…

  1. Assessing global fossil fuel availability in a scenario framework

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bauer, Nico; Hilaire, Jerome; Brecha, Robert J.; Edmonds, James A.; Jiang, Kejun; Kriegler, Elmar; Rogner, Hans-Holger; Sferra, Fabio

    2016-06-01

    This study assesses global, long-term economic availability of coal, oil and gas within the Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP) scenario framework considering alternative assumptions as to highly uncertain future developments of technology, policy and the economy. Diverse sets of trajectories are formulated varying the challenges to mitigation and adaptation of climate change. The potential CO2 emissions from fossil fuels make it a crucial element subject to deep uncertainties. The analysis is based on a well-established data set of cost-quantity combinations that assumes favorable techno-economic developments, but ignores additional constraints on the extraction sector. This study significantly extends that analysis to include alternative assumptions for the fossil fuel sector consistent with the SSP scenario families and applies these filters to the original data set, thus resulting in alternative cumulative fossil fuel availability curves. In a Middle-of-the-Road scenario, low cost fossil fuels embody carbon consistent with a RCP6.0 emission profile, if all the CO2 were emitted freely during the 21st century. In scenarios with high challenges to mitigation, the assumed embodied carbon in low-cost fossil fuels can trigger a RCP8.5 scenario; low mitigation challenges scenarios are still consistent with a RCP4.5 scenario.

  2. Assessment of Simulated Emergency Scenarios: Are Trained Observers Necessary?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noveanu, Juliane; Amsler, Felix; Ummenhofer, Wolfgang; von Wyl, Thomas; Zuercher, Mathias

    2017-01-01

    Simulation-based medical training is associated with superior educational outcomes and improved cost efficiency. Self- and peer-assessment may be a cost-effective and flexible alternative to expert-led assessment. We compared accuracy of self- and peer-assessment of untrained raters using basic evaluation tools to expert assessment using advanced validation tools including validated questionnaires and post hoc video-based analysis. Twenty-eight simulated emergency airway management scenarios were observed and video-recorded for further assessment. Participants consisted of 28 emergency physicians who were involved in four different airway management scenarios with different roles: One scenario as a team leader, one as an assisting team member, and two as an observer. Non-technical skills (NTS) and technical skills (TS) were analyzed by three independent groups: 1) the performing team (PT) consisted of the two emergency physicians acting either in the role of team leader or team member (self-assessment); 2) the observing team (OT), consisted of two of the participating emergency physicians not involved in the current clinical scenario (peer-assessment) and assessment occurred during (OT) or directly after (PT) the simulation without prior specific interpretational training but using standardized questionnaires; and 3) the expert team (ET) consisted of two specifically trained external observers (one psychologist and one emergency physician) using video-assisted objective assessment combined with standardized questionnaires. Intragroup reliability demonstrated by intra-class correlation (ICC) was moderate to good for TS (ICC 0.42(*)) and NTS (ICC 0.55(*)) in PT and moderate to good for TS (ICC 0.41(*)) or poor for NTS (ICC 0.27) in OT. ET showed an excellent intragroup reliability for both TS (ICC 0.78(*)) and NTS (ICC 0.81(*)). Interrater reliability was significantly different between ET and PT and between ET and OT for both TS and NTS. There was no difference

  3. Environmental Assessment of Possible Future Waste Management Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yevgeniya Arushanyan

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Waste management has developed in many countries and will continue to do so. Changes towards increased recovery of resources in order to meet climate targets and for society to transition to a circular economy are important driving forces. Scenarios are important tools for planning and assessing possible future developments and policies. This paper presents a comprehensive life cycle assessment (LCA model for environmental assessments of scenarios and waste management policy instruments. It is unique by including almost all waste flows in a country and also allow for including waste prevention. The results show that the environmental impacts from future waste management scenarios in Sweden can differ a lot. Waste management will continue to contribute with environmental benefits, but less so in the more sustainable future scenarios, since the surrounding energy and transportation systems will be less polluting and also because less waste will be produced. Valuation results indicate that climate change, human toxicity and resource depletion are the most important environmental impact categories for the Swedish waste management system. Emissions of fossil CO2 from waste incineration will continue to be a major source of environmental impacts in these scenarios. The model is used for analyzing environmental impacts of several policy instruments including weight based collection fee, incineration tax, a resource tax and inclusion of waste in a green electricity certification system. The effect of the studied policy instruments in isolation are in most cases limited, suggesting that stronger policy instruments as well as combinations are necessary to reach policy goals as set out in for example the EU action plan on circular economy.

  4. Environmental assessment of low-organic waste landfill scenarios by means of life-cycle assessment modelling (EASEWASTE)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Manfredi, Simone; Christensen, Thomas Højlund; Scharff, H.

    2010-01-01

    assessments show that the low-organic waste scenarios achieved better environmental performance than the household waste scenarios with regard to both ordinary and toxicity-related environmental impact categories. This indicates that the reduction of organic matter accepted at landfills (as prescribed...... (Guidelines for Drinking-water Quality; WHO, Geneva, 2006) guideline for drinking water quality was assumed as reference. The results show that low-organic waste landfills pose a smaller risk of groundwater contamination, but the impact potentials estimated still remain a lot higher than estimated in other......The environmental performance of two low-organic waste landfill scenarios ('low-organic-energy' and 'low-organic-flare') was developed and compared with two household waste landfill scenarios ('household-energy' and 'household-flare') by means of LCA-modelling. The LCA-modelling was made for 1...

  5. Expert assessment concludes negative emissions scenarios may not deliver

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vaughan, Naomi E.; Gough, Clair

    2016-09-01

    Many integrated assessment models (IAMs) rely on the availability and extensive use of biomass energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) to deliver emissions scenarios consistent with limiting climate change to below 2 °C average temperature rise. BECCS has the potential to remove carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere, delivering ‘negative emissions’. The deployment of BECCS at the scale assumed in IAM scenarios is highly uncertain: biomass energy is commonly used but not at such a scale, and CCS technologies have been demonstrated but not commercially established. Here we present the results of an expert elicitation process that explores the explicit and implicit assumptions underpinning the feasibility of BECCS in IAM scenarios. Our results show that the assumptions are considered realistic regarding technical aspects of CCS but unrealistic regarding the extent of bioenergy deployment, and development of adequate societal support and governance structures for BECCS. The results highlight concerns about the assumed magnitude of carbon dioxide removal achieved across a full BECCS supply chain, with the greatest uncertainty in bioenergy production. Unrealistically optimistic assumptions regarding the future availability of BECCS in IAM scenarios could lead to the overshoot of critical warming limits and have significant impacts on near-term mitigation options.

  6. Assessing magnitude probability distribution through physics-based rupture scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hok, Sébastien; Durand, Virginie; Bernard, Pascal; Scotti, Oona

    2016-04-01

    When faced with complex network of faults in a seismic hazard assessment study, the first question raised is to what extent the fault network is connected and what is the probability that an earthquake ruptures simultaneously a series of neighboring segments. Physics-based dynamic rupture models can provide useful insight as to which rupture scenario is most probable, provided that an exhaustive exploration of the variability of the input parameters necessary for the dynamic rupture modeling is accounted for. Given the random nature of some parameters (e.g. hypocenter location) and the limitation of our knowledge, we used a logic-tree approach in order to build the different scenarios and to be able to associate them with a probability. The methodology is applied to the three main faults located along the southern coast of the West Corinth rift. Our logic tree takes into account different hypothesis for: fault geometry, location of hypocenter, seismic cycle position, and fracture energy on the fault plane. The variability of these parameters is discussed, and the different values tested are weighted accordingly. 64 scenarios resulting from 64 parameter combinations were included. Sensitivity studies were done to illustrate which parameters control the variability of the results. Given the weight of the input parameters, we evaluated the probability to obtain a full network break to be 15 %, while single segment rupture represents 50 % of the scenarios. These rupture scenario probability distribution along the three faults of the West Corinth rift fault network can then be used as input to a seismic hazard calculation.

  7. Asian water futures - Multi scenarios, models and criteria assessment -

    Science.gov (United States)

    Satoh, Yusuke; Burek, Peter; Wada, Yoshihide; Flrörke, Martina; Eisner, Stephanie; Hanasaki, Naota; Kahil, Taher; Tramberend, Sylvia; Fischer, Günther; Wiberg, David

    2016-04-01

    A better understanding of the current and future availability of water resources is essential for the implementation of the recently agreed Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Long-term/efficient strategies for coping with current and potential future water-related challenges are urgently required. Although Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) were develop for the impact assessment of climate change, very few assessments have yet used the SSPs to assess water resources. Then the IIASA Water Futures and Solutions Initiative (WFaS), developed a set of water use scenarios consistent with RCPs and SSPs and applying the latest climate changes scenarios. Here this study focuses on results for Asian countries for the period 2010-2050. We present three conceivable future pathways of Asian water resources, determined by feasible combinations of two RCPs and three SSPs. Such a scenario approach provides valuable insights towards identifying appropriate strategies as gaps between a "scenario world" and reality. In addition, for the assessment of future water resources a multi-criteria analysis is applied. A classification system for countries and watershed that consists of two broad dimensions: (i) economic and institutional adaptive capacity, (ii) hydrological complexity. The latter is composed of several sub-indexes including total renewable water resources per capita, the ratio of water demand to renewable water resource, variability of runoff and dependency ratio to external. Furthermore, this analysis uses a multi-model approach to estimate runoff and discharge using 5 GCMs and 5 global hydrological models (GHMs). Three of these GHMs calculate water use based on a consistent set of scenarios in addition to water availability. As a result, we have projected hot spots of water scarcity in Asia and their spatial and temporal change. For example, in a scenario based on SSP2 and RCP6.0, by 2050, in total 2.1 billion people

  8. Scenario simulation based assessment of subsurface energy storage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beyer, C.; Bauer, S.; Dahmke, A.

    2014-12-01

    Energy production from renewable sources such as solar or wind power is characterized by temporally varying power supply. The politically intended transition towards renewable energies in Germany („Energiewende") hence requires the installation of energy storage technologies to compensate for the fluctuating production. In this context, subsurface energy storage represents a viable option due to large potential storage capacities and the wide prevalence of suited geological formations. Technologies for subsurface energy storage comprise cavern or deep porous media storage of synthetic hydrogen or methane from electrolysis and methanization, or compressed air, as well as heat storage in shallow or moderately deep porous formations. Pressure build-up, fluid displacement or temperature changes induced by such operations may affect local and regional groundwater flow, geomechanical behavior, groundwater geochemistry and microbiology. Moreover, subsurface energy storage may interact and possibly be in conflict with other "uses" like drinking water abstraction or ecological goods and functions. An utilization of the subsurface for energy storage therefore requires an adequate system and process understanding for the evaluation and assessment of possible impacts of specific storage operations on other types of subsurface use, the affected environment and protected entities. This contribution presents the framework of the ANGUS+ project, in which tools and methods are developed for these types of assessments. Synthetic but still realistic scenarios of geological energy storage are derived and parameterized for representative North German storage sites by data acquisition and evaluation, and experimental work. Coupled numerical hydraulic, thermal, mechanical and reactive transport (THMC) simulation tools are developed and applied to simulate the energy storage and subsurface usage scenarios, which are analyzed for an assessment and generalization of the imposed THMC

  9. Two Methodologies to Assess UrbanSim Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-12-01

    Interservice/Jndustry Training, Simulation, and Education Conference (11/ TSEC ) 2013 Two Methodologies to Assess UrbanSim Scenarios Brian Vogt...Education Conference (11/ TSEC ) 2013 strategies and determine if 1) only acceptable strategies are among the highest rewarded strategies and 2) only...Education Conference (1// TSEC ) 2013 {J ’ ’’/~AR+fX1;7’-’?;’/’> i> :c~t~11o)0~~ iJcMi>red:(m);t~" ’A\\::f\\0--{;101/0’ <Y?J¥~1)\\f-j’f\\!-’ + 7;J

  10. Data Assimilation Techniques for Ionospheric Reference Scenarios - project overview and achieved outcomes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerzen, Tatjana; Wilken, Volker; Hoque, Mainul; Minkwitz, David; Schlueter, Stefan

    2016-04-01

    The ionosphere is the upper part of the Earth's atmosphere, where sufficient free electrons exist to affect the propagation of radio waves. Therefore, the treatment of the ionosphere is a critical issue for many applications dealing with trans-ionospheric signals such as GNSS positioning, GNSS related augmentation systems (e.g. EGNOS and WAAS) and remote sensing. The European Geostationary Navigation Overlay Service (EGNOS) is the European Satellite Based Augmentation Service (SBAS) that provides value added services, in particular to safety critical GNSS applications, e.g. aviation and maritime traffic. In the frame of the European GNSS Evolution Programme (EGEP), ESA has launched several activities, supporting the design, development and qualification of the operational EGNOS infrastructure and associated services. Ionospheric Reference Scenarios (IRSs) are used by ESA in order to conduct the EGNOS performance simulations and to assure the capability for maintaining accuracy, integrity and availability of the EGNOS system, especially during ionospheric storm conditions. The project Data Assimilation Techniques for Ionospheric Reference Scenarios (DAIS) - aims the provision of improved EGNOS IRSs. The main tasks are the calculation and validation of time series of IRSs by a 3D assimilation approach that combines space borne and ground based GNSS observations as well as ionosonde measurements with an ionospheric background model. The special focus thereby is to demonstrate that space-based measurements can significantly contribute to fill data gaps in GNSS ground networks (particularly in Africa and over the oceans) when generating the IRSs. In this project we selected test periods of perturbed and nominal ionospheric conditions and filtered the collected data for outliers. We defined and developed an applicable technique for the 3D assimilation and applied this technique for the generation of IRSs covering the EGNOS V3 extended service area. Afterwards the

  11. Assessing the Formation of Experience-Based Gender Expectations in an Implicit Learning Scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Öttl, Anton; Behne, Dawn M

    2017-01-01

    The present study investigates the formation of new word-referent associations in an implicit learning scenario, using a gender-coded artificial language with spoken words and visual referents. Previous research has shown that when participants are explicitly instructed about the gender-coding system underlying an artificial lexicon, they monitor the frequency of exposure to male vs. female referents within this lexicon, and subsequently use this probabilistic information to predict the gender of an upcoming referent. In an explicit learning scenario, the auditory and visual gender cues are necessarily highlighted prior to acqusition, and the effects previously observed may therefore depend on participants' overt awareness of these cues. To assess whether the formation of experience-based expectations is dependent on explicit awareness of the underlying coding system, we present data from an experiment in which gender-coding was acquired implicitly, thereby reducing the likelihood that visual and auditory gender cues are used strategically during acquisition. Results show that even if the gender coding system was not perfectly mastered (as reflected in the number of gender coding errors), participants develop frequency based expectations comparable to those previously observed in an explicit learning scenario. In line with previous findings, participants are quicker at recognizing a referent whose gender is consistent with an induced expectation than one whose gender is inconsistent with an induced expectation. At the same time however, eyetracking data suggest that these expectations may surface earlier in an implicit learning scenario. These findings suggest that experience-based expectations are robust against manner of acquisition, and contribute to understanding why similar expectations observed in the activation of stereotypes during the processing of natural language stimuli are difficult or impossible to suppress.

  12. Assessing the Formation of Experience-Based Gender Expectations in an Implicit Learning Scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anton Öttl

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The present study investigates the formation of new word-referent associations in an implicit learning scenario, using a gender-coded artificial language with spoken words and visual referents. Previous research has shown that when participants are explicitly instructed about the gender-coding system underlying an artificial lexicon, they monitor the frequency of exposure to male vs. female referents within this lexicon, and subsequently use this probabilistic information to predict the gender of an upcoming referent. In an explicit learning scenario, the auditory and visual gender cues are necessarily highlighted prior to acqusition, and the effects previously observed may therefore depend on participants' overt awareness of these cues. To assess whether the formation of experience-based expectations is dependent on explicit awareness of the underlying coding system, we present data from an experiment in which gender-coding was acquired implicitly, thereby reducing the likelihood that visual and auditory gender cues are used strategically during acquisition. Results show that even if the gender coding system was not perfectly mastered (as reflected in the number of gender coding errors, participants develop frequency based expectations comparable to those previously observed in an explicit learning scenario. In line with previous findings, participants are quicker at recognizing a referent whose gender is consistent with an induced expectation than one whose gender is inconsistent with an induced expectation. At the same time however, eyetracking data suggest that these expectations may surface earlier in an implicit learning scenario. These findings suggest that experience-based expectations are robust against manner of acquisition, and contribute to understanding why similar expectations observed in the activation of stereotypes during the processing of natural language stimuli are difficult or impossible to suppress.

  13. Developing Shipping Emissions Assessments, Inventories and Scenarios (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corbett, J. J.

    2010-12-01

    Inventories of shipping have been important contributions to scientific understanding of regional pollution and transboundary transport. These inventories have also been used to evaluate global scale environmental and climate effects and trends. However, these inventories also inform policy making decisions and this role is increasingly occurring within the timescale of scientific assessment. Shipping exhibits a growth trend for uncontrolled pollutants that is highly coupled to economic activity, and historically increasing faster than many other anthropogenic sources on a global and regional scale. Shipping emissions are being regulated asymmetrically in various dimensions. Some pollutants are being controlled more than others, some regions are subject to stricter controls, and correlated changes in operations are affecting unregulated pollutant emissions. Shipping inventories require more than current assessments, including historic and future scenarios. Generally conceived as sets of business-as-usual (BAU) and high-growth scenarios, ship inventories now also need regulatory control pathways and maximum feasible reduction (MFR) scenarios. In this context, shipping inventories also present other challenges to both scientists and policymakers. Systemic bias can occur in non-shipping assessments when emissions along well-traveled shipping lanes are ignored by far offshore scientific studies, even some campaigns that control very carefully the potential influence of the shipping platforms for their measurements. Examples where shipping may contribute understood and potential biases include: a. Health impacts from transboundary pollution b. Ozone trends over the Pacific c. Sulfur emissions from biogenic sources in Northern hemisphere d. Acidification of coastal waters (potential) e. Arctic impacts on snow and ice Other challenges exist. The fuels and technology used by ships are unique from other transportation, from other stationary sources - and these are changing

  14. Landscape Scenarios and Multifunctionality: Making Land Use Impact Assessment Operational

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katharina Helming

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Ex ante impact assessment can help in structuring the analysis of human-environment interactions thereby supporting land use decision making for sustainable development. The contributions to this special feature focus on some of the challenges of making land use impact assessment operational for policy making. A total of nine papers deal with the needs and uses of assessment tools for policy making at the European level, with the value-based influence in scenario development, and with ex ante impact assessment studies in different contexts, spatial systems, and for different purposes and user groups. The concept of landscape multifunctionality was implicitly or explicitly employed as an integrating entity between socioeconomic and biogeophysical features of a spatial system. Three major aspects were revealed that could improve the relevance of the policy of land use impact assessment: the involvement of decision makers early on in the design of the impact assessment study; the integration of quantitative analysis with participatory valuation methods; and the robust and transparent design of the analytical methods.

  15. Ash fallout scenarios at Vesuvius: Numerical simulations and implications for hazard assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macedonio, G.; Costa, A.; Folch, A.

    2008-12-01

    Volcanic ash fallout subsequent to a possible renewal of the Vesuvius activity represents a serious threat to the highly urbanized area around the volcano. In order to assess the relative hazard we consider three different possible scenarios such as those following Plinian, Sub-Plinian, and violent Strombolian eruptions. Reference eruptions for each scenario are similar to the 79 AD (Pompeii), the 1631 AD (or 472 AD) and the 1944 AD Vesuvius events, respectively. Fallout deposits for the first two scenarios are modeled using HAZMAP, a model based on a semi-analytical solution of the 2D advection-diffusion-sedimentation equation. In contrast, fallout following a violent Strombolian event is modeled by means of FALL3D, a numerical model based on the solution of the full 3D advection-diffusion-sedimentation equation which is valid also within the atmospheric boundary layer. Inputs for models are total erupted mass, eruption column height, bulk grain-size, bulk component distribution, and a statistical set of wind profiles obtained by the NCEP/NCAR re-analysis. We computed ground load probability maps for different ash loadings. In the case of a Sub-Plinian scenario, the most representative tephra loading maps in 16 cardinal directions were also calculated. The probability maps obtained for the different scenarios are aimed to give support to the risk mitigation strategies.

  16. Nuclear spent fuel management scenarios. Status and assessment report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dufek, J.; Arzhanov, V.; Gudowski, W. [Royal Inst. of Technology, Stockholm (Sweden). Dept. of Nuclear and Reactor Physics

    2006-06-15

    The strategy for management of spent nuclear fuel from the Swedish nuclear power programme is interim storage for cooling and decay for about 30 years followed by direct disposal of the fuel in a geologic repository. In various contexts it is of interest to compare this strategy with other strategies that might be available in the future as a result of ongoing research and development. In particular partitioning and transmutation is one such strategy that is subject to considerable R and D-efforts within the European Union and in other countries with large nuclear programmes. To facilitate such comparisons for the Swedish situation, with a planned phase out of the nuclear power programme, SKB has asked the team at Royal Inst. of Technology to describe and explore some scenarios that might be applied to the Swedish programme. The results of this study are presented in this report. The following scenarios were studied by the help of a specially developed computer programme: Phase out by 2025 with direct disposal. Burning plutonium and minor actinides as MOX in BWR. Burning plutonium and minor actinides as MOX in PWR. Burning plutonium and minor actinides in ADS. Combined LWR-MOX plus ADS. For the different scenarios nuclide inventories, waste amounts, costs, additional electricity production etc have been assessed. As a general conclusion it was found that BWR is more efficient for burning plutonium in MOX fuel than PWR. The difference is approximately 10%. Furthermore the BWR produces about 10% less americium inventory. An ADS reactor park can theoretically in an ideal case burn (transmute) 99% of the transuranium isotopes. The duration of such a scenario heavily depends on the interim time needed for cooling the spent fuel before reprocessing. Assuming 10 years for cooling of nuclear fuel from ADS, the duration will be at least 200 years under optimistic technical assumptions. The development and use of advanced pyro-processing with an interim cooling time of only

  17. Assessing uncertainty in radar measurements on simplified meteorological scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Molini

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available A three-dimensional radar simulator model (RSM developed by Haase (1998 is coupled with the nonhydrostatic mesoscale weather forecast model Lokal-Modell (LM. The radar simulator is able to model reflectivity measurements by using the following meteorological fields, generated by Lokal Modell, as inputs: temperature, pressure, water vapour content, cloud water content, cloud ice content, rain sedimentation flux and snow sedimentation flux. This work focuses on the assessment of some uncertainty sources associated with radar measurements: absorption by the atmospheric gases, e.g., molecular oxygen, water vapour, and nitrogen; attenuation due to the presence of a highly reflecting structure between the radar and a "target structure". RSM results for a simplified meteorological scenario, consisting of a humid updraft on a flat surface and four cells placed around it, are presented.

  18. Fame: A forest assessment and monitoring environment scenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    van der Burg, G.; Looyen, W.J.; Venema, J.C.

    1993-04-19

    The report includes effective management of forest resources which requires suitable, up-to-date information on the state, extent and distribution of forest. FAO has initiated a feasibility study on a global operational forest cover monitoring network using satellite remote sensing data within the framework of the Tropical Forestry Action Plan. The study indicates that the use of remote sensing data for global forest cover monitoring is of great importance. To enable this, provisions are required to allow operational pre-processing of remote sensing data to well defined and standardized products. A scenario for the develop of a Forest Assessment and Monitoring Environment (FAME) is presented. Firstly, Pilot FAME is developed, aiming at providing a suitable infrastructure for forest management using satellite remote sensing data to compile information on global forests. Secondly, PFAME is upgraded to improve its functionality and to introduce Forest Management Systems. Thirdly, PFAME is extended by introducing remote sensing data from other newly launched sensors.

  19. Assessing the Feasibility of Global Long-Term Mitigation Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ajay Gambhir

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This study explores the critical notion of how feasible it is to achieve long-term mitigation goals to limit global temperature change. It uses a model inter-comparison of three integrated assessment models (TIAM-Grantham, MESSAGE-GLOBIOM and WITCH harmonized for socio-economic growth drivers using one of the new shared socio-economic pathways (SSP2, to analyse multiple mitigation scenarios aimed at different temperature changes in 2100, in order to assess the model outputs against a range of indicators developed so as to systematically compare the feasibility across scenarios. These indicators include mitigation costs and carbon prices, rates of emissions reductions and energy efficiency improvements, rates of deployment of key low-carbon technologies, reliance on negative emissions, and stranding of power generation assets. The results highlight how much more challenging the 2 °C goal is, when compared to the 2.5–4 °C goals, across virtually all measures of feasibility. Any delay in mitigation or limitation in technology options also renders the 2 °C goal much less feasible across the economic and technical dimensions explored. Finally, a sensitivity analysis indicates that aiming for less than 2 °C is even less plausible, with significantly higher mitigation costs and faster carbon price increases, significantly faster decarbonization and zero-carbon technology deployment rates, earlier occurrence of very significant carbon capture and earlier onset of global net negative emissions. Such a systematic analysis allows a more in-depth consideration of what realistic level of long-term temperature changes can be achieved and what adaptation strategies are therefore required.

  20. Human scenarios for the screening assessment. Columbia River Comprehensive Impact Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Napier, B.A.; Harper, B.L.; Lane, N.K.; Strenge, D.L.; Spivey, R.B.

    1996-03-01

    Because of past nuclear production operations along the Columbia River, there is intense public and tribal interest in assessing any residual Hanford Site related contamination along the river from the Hanford Reach to the Pacific Ocean. The Columbia River Impact Assessment (CRCIA) was proposed to address these concerns. The assessment of the Columbia River is being conducted in phases. The initial phase is a screening assessment of risk, which addresses current environmental conditions for a range of potential uses. One component of the screening assessment estimates the risk from contaminants in the Columbia River to humans. Because humans affected by the Columbia river are involved in a wide range of activities, various scenarios have been developed on which to base the risk assessments. The scenarios illustrate the range of activities possible by members of the public coming in contact with the Columbia River so that the impact of contaminants in the river on human health can be assessed. Each scenario illustrates particular activity patterns by a specific group. Risk will be assessed at the screening level for each scenario. This report defines the scenarios and the exposure factors that will be the basis for estimating the potential range of risk to human health from Hanford-derived radioactive as well as non-radioactive contaminants associated with the Columbia River.

  1. Project SAFE. Update of the SFR-1 safety assessment. Phase 1. Appendix A2: Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Skagius, K.; Wiborgh, M. [Kemakta Konsult AB, Stockholm (Sweden)

    1998-10-01

    This appendix gives a short description of the scenario methodology adopted in the previous safety assessment of SFR. Since then new methodologies for developing structured descriptions of how processes and interactions between processes affect the evolution of a repository system. Two such methods are briefly described. These methods are very similar, but they differ in the way the system is graphically structured. One of the methods is based on Process Influence Diagrams, PID, and the other on Interaction matrices. It is proposed that the method based on Interaction matrices is used for the scenario work in project SAFE. The main reason for this is that the method already has been applied by SKB, which means that it will be possible to use already existing procedures and documentation systems. The proposed procedure involves the development of Interaction matrices for a defined Reference scenario and the use of these matrices to illustrate the effect of different Scenario initiating FEPs. The proposed procedure is described in this appendix 18 refs, 2 figs

  2. Alternative future scenarios for the SPS comparative assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ayres, R.U.; Ridker, R.G.; Watson, W.D. Jr.; Arnold, J.; Tayi, G.

    1980-08-01

    The objective of the comparative assessment is to develop an initial understanding of the SPS with respect to a limited set of energy alternatives. A comparative methodology report describes the multi-step process in the comparative assessment. The first step is the selection and characterization of alternative energy systems. Terrestrial alternatives are selected, and their cost, performance, and environmental and social attributes are specified for use in the comparison with the SPS in the post-2000 era. Data on alternative technologies were sought from previous research and from other comparisons. The object of this study is to provide a futures framework for evaluating SPS (i.e., factor prices, primary energy prices, and energy demands for the US from 1980 to 2030). The economic/energy interactions are discussed, and a number of specific modelling schemes that have been used for long-range forecasting purposes are described. This discussion provides the rationale for the choice of a specific model and methodology, which is described. Long-range cost assumptions used in the forecast are detailed, and the basis for the selection of specific scenarios follows. Results of the analysis are detailed. (WHK)

  3. Assessing Threat Detection Scenarios through Hypothesis Generation and Testing

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-12-01

    Dog Day scenario .............................................................................................................. 9...Figure 1. Rankings of priority threats identified in the Dog Day scenario ............................... 9 Figure 2. Rankings of priority...making in uncertain environments relies heavily on pattern matching. Cohen, Freeman, and Wolf (1996) reported that features of the decision problem

  4. Transport project evaluation: feasibility risk assessment and scenario forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang; Leleur, Steen

    2017-01-01

    distribution functions. The latter have been placed and ultimately simulated on the inaccuracies of determining demand forecasts, i.e. leading to travel time savings and ticket revenues of the project. Finally, RSF makes use of scenario forecasting where trend scenarios such as economic growth and level...

  5. FAME: A forest assessment and monitoring environment scenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Looyen, W.J.; Zeppenfeldt, F.O.; Venema, J.C.; van der Burg, G.

    1993-02-26

    The report includes effective management of forest resources which requires suitable for, up-to-date information on the state, extent and distribution of forest. Remote Sensing data can provide this information. FAO has initiated a feasibility study on a global operational forest cover monitoring network using satellite remote sensing data within the framework of the Tropical Forestry Action Plan. The study indicates that the use of remote sensing data for global forest cover monitoring is of great importance. To enable this, provisions are required to allow operational pre-processing of remote sensing data to well defined and standardized products. A scenario for the development of a Forest Assessment and Monitoring Environment (FAME) is presented. Firstly, Pilot FAME is developed, aiming at providing a suitable infrastructure for forest management using satellite remote sensing data to compile information on global forests. Secondly, PFAME is upgraded to improve its functionality and to introduce Forest Management Systems. Thirdly, PFAME is extended by introducing remote sensing data from other newly launched sensors.

  6. Representative Agricultural Pathways and Scenarios for Regional Integrated Assessment of Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability, and Adaptation. 5; Chapter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valdivia, Roberto O.; Antle, John M.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Ruane, Alexander C.; Vervoort, Joost; Ashfaq, Muhammad; Hathie, Ibrahima; Tui, Sabine Homann-Kee; Mulwa, Richard; Nhemachena, Charles; hide

    2015-01-01

    The global change research community has recognized that new pathway and scenario concepts are needed to implement impact and vulnerability assessment where precise prediction is not possible, and also that these scenarios need to be logically consistent across local, regional, and global scales. For global climate models, representative concentration pathways (RCPs) have been developed that provide a range of time-series of atmospheric greenhouse-gas concentrations into the future. For impact and vulnerability assessment, new socio-economic pathway and scenario concepts have also been developed, with leadership from the Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC).This chapter presents concepts and methods for development of regional representative agricultural pathways (RAOs) and scenarios that can be used for agricultural model intercomparison, improvement, and impact assessment in a manner consistent with the new global pathways and scenarios. The development of agriculture-specific pathways and scenarios is motivated by the need for a protocol-based approach to climate impact, vulnerability, and adaptation assessment. Until now, the various global and regional models used for agricultural-impact assessment have been implemented with individualized scenarios using various data and model structures, often without transparent documentation, public availability, and consistency across disciplines. These practices have reduced the credibility of assessments, and also hampered the advancement of the science through model intercomparison, improvement, and synthesis of model results across studies. The recognition of the need for better coordination among the agricultural modeling community, including the development of standard reference scenarios with adequate agriculture-specific detail led to the creation of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) in 2010. The development of RAPs is one of the cross-cutting themes in AgMIP's work

  7. A comparison between the example reference biosphere model ERB 2B and a process-based model: simulation of a natural release scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almahayni, T

    2014-12-01

    The BIOMASS methodology was developed with the objective of constructing defensible assessment biospheres for assessing potential radiological impacts of radioactive waste repositories. To this end, a set of Example Reference Biospheres were developed to demonstrate the use of the methodology and to provide an international point of reference. In this paper, the performance of the Example Reference Biosphere model ERB 2B associated with the natural release scenario, discharge of contaminated groundwater to the surface environment, was evaluated by comparing its long-term projections of radionuclide dynamics and distribution in a soil-plant system to those of a process-based, transient advection-dispersion model (AD). The models were parametrised with data characteristic of a typical rainfed winter wheat crop grown on a sandy loam soil under temperate climate conditions. Three safety-relevant radionuclides, (99)Tc, (129)I and (237)Np with different degree of sorption were selected for the study. Although the models were driven by the same hydraulic (soil moisture content and water fluxes) and radiological (Kds) input data, their projections were remarkably different. On one hand, both models were able to capture short and long-term variation in activity concentration in the subsoil compartment. On the other hand, the Reference Biosphere model did not project any radionuclide accumulation in the topsoil and crop compartments. This behaviour would underestimate the radiological exposure under natural release scenarios. The results highlight the potential role deep roots play in soil-to-plant transfer under a natural release scenario where radionuclides are released into the subsoil. When considering the relative activity and root depth profiles within the soil column, much of the radioactivity was taken up into the crop from the subsoil compartment. Further improvements were suggested to address the limitations of the Reference Biosphere model presented in this paper

  8. Review of scenario selection approaches for performance assessment of high-level waste repositories and related issues.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Banano, E.J. [Beta Corporation International, Albuquerque, NM (United States); Baca, R.G. [Southwest Research Inst., San Antonio, TX (United States). Center for Nuclear Waste Regulatory Analyses

    1995-08-01

    The selection of scenarios representing plausible realizations of the future conditions-with associated probabilities of occurrence-that can affect the long-term performance of a high-level radioactive waste (HLW) repository is the commonly used method for treating the uncertainty in the prediction of the future states of the system. This method, conventionally referred to as the ``scenario approach,`` while common is not the only method to deal with this uncertainty; other method ``ch as the environmental simulation approach (ESA), have also been proposed. Two of the difficulties with the scenario approach are the lack of uniqueness in the definition of the term ``scenario`` and the lack of uniqueness in the approach to formulate scenarios, which relies considerably on subjective judgments. Consequently, it is difficult to assure that a complete and unique set of scenarios can be defined for use in a performance assessment. Because scenarios are key to the determination of the long-term performance of the repository system, this lack of uniqueness can present a considerable challenge when attempting to reconcile the set of scenarios, and their level of detail, obtained using different approaches, particularly among proponents and regulators of a HLW repository.

  9. Environmental impact tool to assess national energy scenarios

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Taviv, R

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available (EESIs) as part of the developed tool, which assists with the identification of the environmental consequences of energy generation and use scenarios and thereby promotes sustainability, since environmental considerations can then be integrated...

  10. Scenario Analysis for the Safety Assessment of Nuclear Waste Repositories: A Critical Review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tosoni, Edoardo; Salo, Ahti; Zio, Enrico

    2017-09-05

    A major challenge in scenario analysis for the safety assessment of nuclear waste repositories pertains to the comprehensiveness of the set of scenarios selected for assessing the safety of the repository. Motivated by this challenge, we discuss the aspects of scenario analysis relevant to comprehensiveness. Specifically, we note that (1) it is necessary to make it clear why scenarios usually focus on a restricted set of features, events, and processes; (2) there is not yet consensus on the interpretation of comprehensiveness for guiding the generation of scenarios; and (3) there is a need for sound approaches to the treatment of epistemic uncertainties. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  11. Validity Evidence for a Serious Game to Assess Performance on Critical Pediatric Emergency Medicine Scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerard, James M; Scalzo, Anthony J; Borgman, Matthew A; Watson, Christopher M; Byrnes, Chelsie E; Chang, Todd P; Auerbach, Marc; Kessler, David O; Feldman, Brian L; Payne, Brian S; Nibras, Sohail; Chokshi, Riti K; Lopreiato, Joseph O

    2018-01-26

    We developed a first-person serious game, PediatricSim, to teach and assess performances on seven critical pediatric scenarios (anaphylaxis, bronchiolitis, diabetic ketoacidosis, respiratory failure, seizure, septic shock, and supraventricular tachycardia). In the game, players are placed in the role of a code leader and direct patient management by selecting from various assessment and treatment options. The objective of this study was to obtain supportive validity evidence for the PediatricSim game scores. Game content was developed by 11 subject matter experts and followed the American Heart Association's 2011 Pediatric Advanced Life Support Provider Manual and other authoritative references. Sixty subjects with three different levels of experience were enrolled to play the game. Before game play, subjects completed a 40-item written pretest of knowledge. Game scores were compared between subject groups using scoring rubrics developed for the scenarios. Validity evidence was established and interpreted according to Messick's framework. Content validity was supported by a game development process that involved expert experience, focused literature review, and pilot testing. Subjects rated the game favorably for engagement, realism, and educational value. Interrater agreement on game scoring was excellent (intraclass correlation coefficient = 0.91, 95% confidence interval = 0.89-0.9). Game scores were higher for attendings followed by residents then medical students (Pc game and written test scores (r = 0.84, P game scores to assess knowledge of pediatric emergency medicine resuscitation.

  12. Reference Evapotranspiration Estimation in Climate Change Scenarios for Rio Verde in the State of Goiás, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lucas da Costa Santos

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Long-term changes in evapotranspiration can have extreme effects in hydrological processes as well as crop yields. The objective of this study was to quantify the expected changes in evapotranspiration in climate change scenarios using the Penman Monteith/FAO56 (PM standard method and empirical equations for estimating reference evapotranspiration (ET0, specifically for the conditions of Rio Verde, in the state of Goiás, Brazil. Data from the National Institute of Meteorology, and Meteorology and Hydrology System of the State of Goiás were used to estimate the ET0 by using the following methods: Modified Penman, Radiation, Blaney-Criddle, Hargreaves-Samani, and Priestley-Taylor and Turc, which were compared with the PM method on the daily scale. From the ET0 obtained in each of these methods, their performance was evaluated through statistical indices in four future climate scenarios. The projections originated from two emission scenarios based on the HadGEM2-ES global climate model with medium (2040-2069 and long (2070-2099 term scenarios. The results presented that the Radiation and Turc methods are currently—and can be under the predicted conditions of future climate scenarios—the best options for estimation of ET0 in Rio Verde, when meteorological data are not available to implement the PM method. The Modified Penman and the Hargreaves-Samani methods should not be considered for estimating ET0 in the location evaluated.

  13. Climate change mitigation: comparative assessment of Malaysian and ASEAN scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rasiah, Rajah; Ahmed, Adeel; Al-Amin, Abul Quasem; Chenayah, Santha

    2017-01-01

    This paper analyses empirically the optimal climate change mitigation policy of Malaysia with the business as usual scenario of ASEAN to compare their environmental and economic consequences over the period 2010-2110. A downscaling empirical dynamic model is constructed using a dual multidisciplinary framework combining economic, earth science, and ecological variables to analyse the long-run consequences. The model takes account of climatic variables, including carbon cycle, carbon emission, climatic damage, carbon control, carbon concentration, and temperature. The results indicate that without optimal climate policy and action, the cumulative cost of climate damage for Malaysia and ASEAN as a whole over the period 2010-2110 would be MYR40.1 trillion and MYR151.0 trillion, respectively. Under the optimal policy, the cumulative cost of climatic damage for Malaysia would fall to MYR5.3 trillion over the 100 years. Also, the additional economic output of Malaysia will rise from MYR2.1 billion in 2010 to MYR3.6 billion in 2050 and MYR5.5 billion in 2110 under the optimal climate change mitigation scenario. The additional economic output for ASEAN would fall from MYR8.1 billion in 2010 to MYR3.2 billion in 2050 before rising again slightly to MYR4.7 billion in 2110 in the business as usual ASEAN scenario.

  14. Using scenarios to assess possible future impacts of invasive species in the Laurentian Great Lakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lauber, T. Bruce; Stedman, Richard C.; Connelly, Nancy A; Rudstam, Lars G.; Ready, Richard C; Poe, Gregory L; Bunnell, David B.; Hook, Tomas O.; Koops, Marten A.; Ludsin, Stuart A.; Rutherford, Edward S; Wittmann, Marion E.

    2016-01-01

    The expected impacts of invasive species are key considerations in selecting policy responses to potential invasions. But predicting the impacts of invasive species is daunting, particularly in large systems threatened by multiple invasive species, such as North America’s Laurentian Great Lakes. We developed and evaluated a scenario-building process that relied on an expert panel to assess possible future impacts of aquatic invasive species on recreational fishing in the Great Lakes. To maximize its usefulness to policy makers, this process was designed to be implemented relatively rapidly and consider a range of species. The expert panel developed plausible, internally-consistent invasion scenarios for 5 aquatic invasive species, along with subjective probabilities of those scenarios. We describe these scenarios and evaluate this approach for assessing future invasive species impacts. The panel held diverse opinions about the likelihood of the scenarios, and only one scenario with impacts on sportfish species was considered likely by most of the experts. These outcomes are consistent with the literature on scenario building, which advocates for developing a range of plausible scenarios in decision making because the uncertainty of future conditions makes the likelihood of any particular scenario low. We believe that this scenario-building approach could contribute to policy decisions about whether and how to address the possible impacts of invasive species. In this case, scenarios could allow policy makers to narrow the range of possible impacts on Great Lakes fisheries they consider and help set a research agenda for further refining invasive species predictions.

  15. Risk assessment by convergence methodology in RDD scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Araujo, Olga Maria Oliveira de; Andrade, Edson Ramos de; Rebello, Wilson Freitas; Silva, Gabriel Fidalgo Queiroz da, E-mail: olgafisica2013@hotmail.com, E-mail: fisica.dna@gmail.com, E-mail: rebello@ime.eb.br, E-mail: profgabriel.fisica@gmail.com [Instituto Militar de Engenharia (IME), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Secao de Engenharia Nuclear

    2015-07-01

    An RDD event occurs by explosion and radioactive material dispersion where particles containing radioactive material can reach great distances from original point of the explosion and generating a plume of contamination. The use of a RDD is regarded as the most likely scenario involving radiological terrorist material. Accurate information on the population and the estimated dose are essential for analysis during the decision process. This work intends to present a proposal for a convergence of methodologies using the computer simulation codes Hotspot Health Physics 3.0 and the statistical model Radiation Effects Research Foundation (RERF) to calculate the approximate dose depending on the distance of the original point of the explosion of an RDD. From those data, the relative risk of developing tumors is estimated, as well as the probability of causation. At a later stage, the proposed combination of actions intended to help the decision-making and employment response personnel in emergency protection measures, such as sheltering and evacuation through the RESRAD-RDD software. The convergence of the proposed methodology can accelerate the process of acquiring information during the first hours of a radiological scenario and provide proper management of medical response and organization of the overall response. (author)

  16. Anticipatory flood risk assessment under climate change scenarios: from assessment to adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neuhold, C.; Hogl, K.; Seher, W.; Nachtnebel, H. P.; Scherhaufer, P.; Nordbeck, R.; Löschner, L.

    2012-04-01

    According to the Centre for Research on Epidemiology Disasters, floods are the type of natural disasters that affected the highest number of people from 1900 to 2008 worldwide. Specifically, Austria suffered from heavy floods in recent years, affecting thousands of people and causing billions of Euro in economic losses. Although there is yet no proof that these accumulated extreme events are a direct consequence of climate change, they may indicate what can be expected. Currently, comprehensive climate modelling research is being conducted for Austria that may lay the foundation for enhanced climate impact assessments (regional climate modelling under consideration of different global models and varying scenarios). However, the models so far have neither special focus on Austria nor a distinct definition of boundary conditions for Austria. Therefore, results of climate models are considered as too unreliable and inconsistent for predicting changes in flood characteristics, especially at a regional to local scale. As a consequence, adaptation strategies have to be derived from integrated impact analyses that are based on dissecting mechanisms and drivers for changes and not only on the dimension of climate change. This paper discusses a dynamic flood risk assessment methodology considering potential spatial and temporal developments of hazard and vulnerability under climate change scenarios. The approach integrates quantifiable results from assessments of hazard, exposure and sensitivity and the qualitative, interview based, assessment of adaptive capacities. Flood risk assessment will be conducted for the current state in Austria and enhanced by potential (1) flood scenarios increased by a climate change allowance (2) demographic development scenarios (3) land-use change scenarios and (4) adaptation policy assessment to identify regions especially prone to flooding. Comparing the current state with various anticipatory hazard and vulnerability scenarios provides

  17. ECO Exposure Assessment Tools by Stressors - References

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eco-Box is a toolbox for exposure assessors. Its purpose is to provide a compendium of exposure assessment and risk characterization tools that will present comprehensive step-by-step guidance and links to relevant exposure assessment data bases

  18. ECO Exposure Assessment Tools by Effects - References

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eco-Box is a toolbox for exposure assessors. Its purpose is to provide a compendium of exposure assessment and risk characterization tools that will present comprehensive step-by-step guidance and links to relevant exposure assessment data bases

  19. Assessing the Sustainability of EU Timber Consumption Trends: Comparing Consumption Scenarios with a Safe Operating Space Scenario for Global and EU Timber Supply

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meghan O’Brien

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The growing demand for wood to meet EU renewable energy targets has increasingly come under scrutiny for potentially increasing EU import dependence and inducing land use change abroad, with associated impacts on the climate and biodiversity. This article builds on research accounting for levels of primary timber consumption—e.g., toward forest footprints—and developing reference values for benchmarking sustainability—e.g., toward land use targets—in order to improve systemic monitoring of timber and forest use. Specifically, it looks at future trends to assess how current EU policy may impact forests at an EU and global scale. Future demand scenarios are based on projections derived and adapted from the literature to depict developments under different scenario assumptions. Results reveal that by 2030, EU consumption levels on a per capita basis are estimated to be increasingly disproportionate compared to the rest of the world. EU consumption scenarios based on meeting around a 40% share of the EU renewable energy targets with timber would overshoot both the EU and global reference value range for sustainable supply capacities in 2030. Overall, findings support literature pointing to an increased risk of problem shifting relating to both how much and where timber needed for meeting renewable energy targets is sourced. It is argued that a sustainable level of timber consumption should be characterized by balance between supply (what the forest can provide on a sustainable basis and demand (how much is used on a per capita basis, considering the concept of fair shares. To this end, future research should close data gaps, increase methodological robustness and address the socio-political legitimacy of the safe operating space concept towards targets in the future. A re-use of timber within the economy should be supported to increase supply options.

  20. Assessing climate change impacts, benefits of mitigation, and uncertainties on major global forest regions under multiple socioeconomic and emissions scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, John B.; Monier, Erwan; Sohngen, Brent; Pitts, G. Stephen; Drapek, Ray; McFarland, James; Ohrel, Sara; Cole, Jefferson

    2017-04-01

    We analyze a set of simulations to assess the impact of climate change on global forests where MC2 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) was run with climate simulations from the MIT Integrated Global System Model-Community Atmosphere Model (IGSM-CAM) modeling framework. The core study relies on an ensemble of climate simulations under two emissions scenarios: a business-as-usual reference scenario (REF) analogous to the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario, and a greenhouse gas mitigation scenario, called POL3.7, which is in between the IPCC RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios, and is consistent with a 2 °C global mean warming from pre-industrial by 2100. Evaluating the outcomes of both climate change scenarios in the MC2 model shows that the carbon stocks of most forests around the world increased, with the greatest gains in tropical forest regions. Temperate forest regions are projected to see strong increases in productivity offset by carbon loss to fire. The greatest cost of mitigation in terms of effects on forest carbon stocks are projected to be borne by regions in the southern hemisphere. We compare three sources of uncertainty in climate change impacts on the world’s forests: emissions scenarios, the global system climate response (i.e. climate sensitivity), and natural variability. The role of natural variability on changes in forest carbon and net primary productivity (NPP) is small, but it is substantial for impacts of wildfire. Forest productivity under the REF scenario benefits substantially from the CO2 fertilization effect and that higher warming alone does not necessarily increase global forest carbon levels. Our analysis underlines why using an ensemble of climate simulations is necessary to derive robust estimates of the benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation. It also demonstrates that constraining estimates of climate sensitivity and advancing our understanding of CO2 fertilization effects may considerably reduce the range of projections.

  1. Economic and environmental assessment of cellulosic ethanol production scenarios annexed to a typical sugar mill.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ali Mandegari, Mohsen; Farzad, Somayeh; Görgens, Johann F

    2017-01-01

    In this work different biorefinery scenarios were investigated, concerning the co-production of bioethanol and electricity from available lignocellulose at a typical sugar mill, as possible extensions to the current combustion of bagasse for steam and electricity production and burning trash on-filed. In scenario 1, the whole bagasse and brown leaves is utilized in a biorefinery and coal is burnt in the existing inefficient sugar mill boiler. Scenario 2 & 3 are assumed with a new centralized CHP unit without/with coal co-combustion, respectively. Also, through scenarios 4 & 5, the effect of water insoluble loading were studied. All scenarios provided energy for the sugarmill and the ethanol plant, with the export of surplus electricity. Economic analysis determined that scenario 1 was the most viable scenario due to less capital cost and economies-of scale. Based on Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) results, scenario 2 outperformed the other scenarios, while three scenarios showed lower contribution to environmental burdens than the current situation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Landscape Scenarios and Multifunctionality: Making Land Use Impact Assessment Operational

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Helming, K.; Perez-Soba, M.

    2011-01-01

    Ex ante impact assessment can help in structuring the analysis of human-environment interactions thereby supporting land use decision making for sustainable development. The contributions to this special feature focus on some of the challenges of making land use impact assessment operational for

  3. Exposure Assessment Tools by Approaches - Indirect Estimation (Scenario Evaluation)

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA ExpoBox is a toolbox for exposure assessors. Its purpose is to provide a compendium of exposure assessment and risk characterization tools that will present comprehensive step-by-step guidance and links to relevant exposure assessment data bases, mode

  4. The definition and treatment of scenarios in a probabilistic systems assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andres, T.H.; Goodwin, B.W

    1998-03-01

    Concepts for the disposal of nuclear waste generally involve the use of multiple barriers, both man-made and natural, to isolate the waste from man's environment for very long periods of time. To assess the safety of these concepts, postclosure safety assessments are conducted to study the types, ranges and probabilities of potential impacts caused by wastes penetrating these barriers. Within the Canadian context, postclosure safety assessments must estimate radiological risk for comparison with regulatory criteria. The definition of radiological risk introduces a requirement to identify and then evaluate scenarios that describe quantitatively the possible behaviour of a disposal system and its surroundings for at least 10{sup 4} years. This report examines the connection between the identification and evaluation of scenarios. It shows how a large collection of factors can be combined to form simple scenarios, and how a large number of simple scenarios can be grouped into a manageably small number of compound scenarios. The compound scenarios, notably the 'central' scenario, can be evaluated using a probabilistic systems assessment code such as SYVAC3 (SYstems Variability Analysis Code, generation 3) to estimate the radiological risk and other environmental impacts. Examples are taken from a long-term performance assessment study to demonstrate a pragmatic application of the procedure. (author)

  5. Using Performance in Multiple Simulated Scenarios to Assess Bronchoscopy Skills

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Konge, Lars; Arendrup, Henrik; Buchwald, Christian von

    2011-01-01

    Background: International guidelines suggest that trainees should perform at least 100 flexible bronchoscopies in a supervised setting, but this number is not evidence based. An objective assessment method could provide educational feedback to trainees and help supervisors decide when basic...

  6. Life cycle assessment of cell phones in Brazil based on two reverse logistics scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniela da Gama e Silva Volpe Moreira de Moraes

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available This article is a result of a cell phone collection obtained at the Center for Information Technology Renato Archer (CTI under the AMBIENTRONIC Program, an initiative that supports the Brazilian electronic sector in the development of technologies for sustainability. The objective of this article is to assess two reverse logistic scenarios of cell phones using the technique of life-cycle assessment (LCA. The first scenario reflects the current scenario in Brazil, where batteries are recycled in Brazil and the other parts of the phones are outsourced to Europe. The second scenario is a proposal of full treatment in Brazil. The results indicate that the second scenario has a lower potential impact with important reduction of acidification, photochemical oxidation, eutrophication and the use of non-renewable energy. Furthermore, fully implementing reverse logistics in Brazil will enable socioeconomic benefits from the sale of materials and the generation of employment and income.

  7. System and scenario choices in the life cycle assessment of a building – changing impacts of the environmental profile

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Freja; Birgisdóttir, Harpa; Birkved, Morten

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a life cycle assessment (LCA) case study of an office building. The case study investigates how the setting of free parameters (adopted from the CEN/TC 350 standards) influences the results of the building’s LCA in the DGNB certification scheme for sustainable buildings....... The parameters concern the reference study period and the energy supply scenarios. Furthermore, a set of toxicological impact categories are included in the assessment to test whether the toxicological impact potentials follow the same trends as the impact categories already included in the DGNB methodology...

  8. Exposure scenario libraries as a tool for exposure assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sánchez Jiménez, Araceli; Rashid, Shahzad; Brouwer, Derk; Fransman, Wouter; Fito, Carlos; Boulougouris, George; van Tongeren, Martie

    2015-05-01

    The development of nanotechnology has reached a point where it is being widely applied, and numerous nanomaterials and nano-enabled products are handled across a broad range of industrial sectors. Exposure extends beyond occupational settings as products containing nanomaterials are used by different consumer groups. Despite the knowledge on their toxic effects is growing there is still not OEL for most NMS and therefore the precautionary approach is still used where levels are kept as low as possible Therefore there is a need to assess workers and consumers exposure.

  9. Future scenarios: a technical document supporting the Forest Service 2010 RPA Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    . USDA Forest Service.

    2012-01-01

    The Forest and Rangeland Renewable Resources Planning Act of 1974 (RPA) mandates a periodic assessment of the conditions and trends of the Nation's renewable resources on forests and rangelands. The RPA Assessment includes projections of resource conditions and trends 50 years into the future. The 2010 RPA Assessment used a set of future scenarios to provide a...

  10. Assessing cost-effectiveness of bioretention on stormwater in response to climate change and urbanization for future scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Mo; Zhang, Dongqing; Adhityan, Appan; Ng, Wun Jern; Dong, Jianwen; Tan, Soon Keat

    2016-12-01

    Bioretention, as a popular low impact development practice, has become more important to mitigate adverse impacts on urban stormwater. However, there is very limited information regarding ensuring the effectiveness of bioretention response to uncertain future challenges, especially when taking into consideration climate change and urbanization. The main objective of this paper is to identify the cost-effectiveness of bioretention by assessing the hydrology performance under future scenarios modeling. First, the hydrology model was used to obtain peak runoff and TSS loads of bioretention with variable scales under different scenarios, i.e., different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and Shared Socio-economic reference Pathways (SSPs) for 2-year and 10-year design storms in Singapore. Then, life cycle costing (LCC) and life cycle assessment (LCA) were estimated for bioretention, and the cost-effectiveness was identified under different scenarios. Our finding showed that there were different degree of responses to 2-year and 10-year design storms but the general patterns and insights deduced were similar. The performance of bioretenion was more sensitive to urbanization than that for climate change in the urban catchment. In addition, it was noted that the methodology used in this study was generic and the findings could be useful as reference for other LID practices in response to climate change and urbanization.

  11. Assessment of Effectiveness of Geologic Isolation Systems: REFERENCE SITE INITIAL ASSESSMENT FOR A SALT DOME REPOSITORY

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Harwell, M. A.; Brandstetter, A.; Benson, G. L.; Raymond, J. R.; Brandley, D. J.; Serne, R. J.; Soldat, J. K.; Cole, C. R.; Deutsch, W. J.; Gupta, S. K.; Harwell, C. C.; Napier, B. A.; Reisenauer, A. E.; Prater, L. S.; Simmons, C. S.; Strenge, D. L.; Washburn, J. F.; Zellmer, J. T.

    1982-06-01

    As a methodology demonstration for the Office of Nuclear Waste Isolation (ONWI), the Assessment of Effectiveness of Geologic Isolation Systems (AEGIS) Program conducted an initial reference site analysis of the long-term effectiveness of a salt dome repository. The Hainesville Salt Dome in Texas was chosen to be representative of the Gulf Coast interior salt domes; however, the Hainesville Site has been eliminated as a possible nuclear waste repository site. The data used for this exercise are not adequate for an actual assessment, nor have all the parametric analyses been made that would adequately characterize the response of the geosystem surrounding the repository. Additionally, because this was the first exercise of the complete AEGIS and WASTE Rock Interaction Technology (WRIT) methodology, this report provides the initial opportunity for the methodology, specifically applied to a site, to be reviewed by the community outside the AEGIS. The scenario evaluation, as a part of the methodology demonstration, involved consideration of a large variety of potentially disruptive phenomena, which alone or in concert could lead to a breach in a salt dome repository and to a subsequent transport of the radionuclides to the environment. Without waste- and repository-induced effects, no plausible natural geologic events or processes which would compromise the repository integrity could be envisioned over the one-million-year time frame after closure. Near-field (waste- and repository-induced) effects were excluded from consideration in this analysis, but they can be added in future analyses when that methodology development is more complete. The potential for consequential human intrusion into salt domes within a million-year time frame led to the consideration of a solution mining intrusion scenario. The AEGIS staff developed a specific human intrusion scenario at 100 years and 1000 years post-closure, which is one of a whole suite of possible scenarios. This scenario

  12. Assessment of Effectiveness of Geologic Isolation Systems: REFERENCE SITE INITIAL ASSESSMENT FOR A SALT DOME REPOSITORY

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Harwell, M. A.; Brandstetter, A.; Benson, G. L.; Bradley, D. J.; Serne, R. J.; Soldat, J. K; Cole, C. R.; Deutsch, W. J.; Gupta, S. K.; Harwell, C. C.; Napier, B. A.; Reisenauer, A. E.; Prater, L. S.; Simmons, C. S.; Strenge, D. L.; Washburn, J. F.; Zellmer, J. T.

    1982-06-01

    As a methodology demonstration for the Office of Nuclear Waste Isolation (ONWI), the Assessment of Effectiveness of Geologic Isolation Systems (AEGIS) Program conducted an initial reference site analysis of the long-term effectiveness of a salt dome repository. The Hainesville Salt Dome in Texas was chosen to be representative of the Gulf Coast interior salt domes; however, the Hainesville Site has been eliminated as a possible nuclear waste repository site. The data used for this exercise are not adequate for an actual assessment, nor have all the parametric analyses been made that would adequately characterize the response of the geosystem surrounding the repository. Additionally, because this was the first exercise of the complete AEGIS and WASTE Rock Interaction Technology (WRIT) methodology, this report provides the initial opportunity for the methodology, specifically applied to a site, to be reviewed by the community outside the AEGIS. The scenario evaluation, as a part of the methodology demonstration, involved consideration of a large variety of potentially disruptive phenomena, which alone or in concert could lead to a breach in a salt dome repository and to a subsequent transport of the radionuclides to the environment. Without waste- and repository-induced effects, no plausible natural geologic events or processes which would compromise the repository integrity could be envisioned over the one-million-year time frame after closure. Near-field (waste- and repository-induced) effects were excluded from consideration in this analysis, but they can be added in future analyses when that methodology development is more complete. The potential for consequential human intrusion into salt domes within a million-year time frame led to the consideration of a solution mining intrusion scenario. The AEGIS staff developed a specific human intrusion scenario at 100 years and 1000 years post-closure, which is one of a whole suite of possible scenarios. This scenario

  13. TA-54 (Area G) Risk Assessment from Extreme Wildfire Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Linn, Rodman Ray [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Koo, Eunmo [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Honig, Kristen Ann [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); White, Judith [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Funk, David John [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2016-08-10

    Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) and surrounding areas have been exposed to at least four significant wildfires since 1977 and there have been numerous others within 50 miles of LANL. Based on this history, wildfires are considered a risk to LANL facilities and their contents. While many LANL facilities are at risk to wildfire to some degree, they are found in a wide variety of conditions, thus they have varying sensitivities to wildfires. Additionally, LANL facilities have various functions and different assets, so they have a wide range of values or consequences if compromised. Therefore, determining the risks and precautions that are warranted to mitigate these risks must be done on a case-by-case basis. In an effort to assess possible wildfire risks to sensitive materials stored in a Perma-Con® in dome TA-54-0375, a conventional fire risk analysis was performed. This conventional risk analysis is documented in Engineering Evaluation Form AP-FIRE-001-FM1, which is dated 9/28/2015 and was titled ‘Wildland Fire Exposure Evaluation for Building TA-54-0375’ (Hall 2015). This analysis acknowledged that there was significant chance of wildfire in the vicinity of TA-54-0375, but the amount of combustible material surrounding the building was deemed low. The wildland fuels that were closest to the building were largely fine fuels and were not expected to have significant duration of heat release. The prevailing winds at this location are from the south and southwest and the nearest significant upwind fuels (tree crowns or unmown grasses) are at least 300 feet away. Based on these factors the conventional wildland fire risk to TA-54-0375 was deemed minimal, “Acceptable As Is, No Action Required.” This risk evaluation was based on a combined assessment of low probability of wildfires arriving at the site from other directions (where higher fuel loadings might be present) as well as the effective setback of fuels in the direction that fire is

  14. Environmental Impact Assessment of Coal Mining: Indian Scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sribas Goswami

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Coal mining is a development activity, which is bound to damage the natural ecosystem by all its activities direct and ancillary, starting from land acquisition to coal beneficiation and use of the products. This is so because environmental degradation has affected especially the common property resources such as land and water on which depend the subsistence and well-being of the local community. The study area being the foremost coal producing region of the country also ranked high in the record of environmentally degraded region. Huge areas in the Raniganj and Jharia coalfield in India have become ruined due to abandoned and active mine surface and underground mines. In open cast mines, waste resources are usually stacked as huge dumps in the surroundings. These, coupled with coal dumps, cause noteworthy visual impact. Large vicinity of forest, farming land, and pasture land has been transformed into colliery colonies or into uncultivated land due to rapid expansion of the coal mines. As a result, land use pattern has been changed considerably over last three decades. This study is pursued to assess the impact of coal mining activities on local community and environment.

  15. Using MFM methodology to generate and define major accident scenarios for quantitative risk assessment studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hua, Xinsheng; Wu, Zongzhi; Lind, Morten

    2017-01-01

    to calculate likelihood of each MAS. Combining the likelihood of each scenario with a qualitative risk matrix, each major accident scenario is thereby ranked for consideration for detailed consequence analysis. The methodology is successfully highlighted using part of BMA-process for production of hydrogen......Generating and defining Major Accident Scenarios (MAS) are commonly agreed as the key step for quantitative risk assessment (QRA). The aim of the study is to explore the feasibility of using Multilevel Flow Modeling (MFM) methodology to formulating MAS. Traditionally this is usually done based...

  16. Using MFM methodology to generate and define major accident scenarios for quantitative risk assessment studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hua, Xinsheng; Wu, Zongzhi; Lind, Morten

    2017-01-01

    Generating and defining Major Accident Scenarios (MAS) are commonly agreed as the key step for quantitative risk assessment (QRA). The aim of the study is to explore the feasibility of using Multilevel Flow Modeling (MFM) methodology to formulating MAS. Traditionally this is usually done based...... to calculate likelihood of each MAS. Combining the likelihood of each scenario with a qualitative risk matrix, each major accident scenario is thereby ranked for consideration for detailed consequence analysis. The methodology is successfully highlighted using part of BMA-process for production of hydrogen...

  17. A Systematic Approach to Explorative Scenario Analysis in Emergy Assessment with Emphasis on Resilience

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kamp, Andreas; Østergård, Hanne

    2016-01-01

    the future may bring. We develop a systematic approach to explorative scenario analysis and attempt to quantify aspects of resilience specifically for emergy assessment (EmA) of production systems. We group system inputs into five categories: (1) fossil fuels, their derivatives, metals and minerals, (2) on...... by corresponding narratives. We analyse the aggregated effect on UEVs of these scenarios for production systems that differ with respect to how the emergy flow is distributed among the five input categories. We find that for most production systems, scenario conditions significantly affect the UEV. The production...

  18. Environmental assessment of plant protection strategies using scenarios for pig feed production.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cederberg, Christel; Wivstad, Maria; Bergkvist, Peter; Mattsson, Berit; Ivarsson, Kjell

    2005-06-01

    Two scenarios for future pig meat production were constructed. The first was a "business as usual" scenario, where the pig feed was based on domestic grain and imported soy-meal, and no efforts were made to reduce pesticide use. The second scenario had a strong environmental focus, and both peas and rapeseed were grown at pig-farm level to produce grain and protein feed. Preventive measures, such as a more diverse crop rotation and mechanical weed control, were combined to reduce pesticide use. The two scenarios were environmentally assessed by Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) and a pesticide risk indicator model (PRI-Farm). The results showed environmentally sound possibilities to reduce pesticide dependency and risks by using altered plant protection strategies in pig-feed production. Organizing on-farm feed production so that protein feed crops are integrated with grain crops contributes to a more diverse crop rotation.

  19. Decarbonizing the Global Economy - An Integrated Assessment of Low Carbon Emission Scenarios proposed in Climate Policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hokamp, Sascha; Khabbazan, Mohammad Mohammadi

    2017-04-01

    In 2015, the Conference of the Parties (COP 21) reaffirmed to targeting the global mean temperature rise below 2 °C in 2100 while finding no consent on decarbonizing the global economy, and instead, the final agreement called for enhanced scientific investigation of low carbon emission scenarios (UNFCC, 2015). In addition, the Climate Action Network International (CAN) proposes Special Reports to address decarbonization and low carbon development including 1.5 °C scenarios (IPCC, 2016). In response to these developments, we investigate whether the carbon emission cuts, in accordance with the recent climate policy proposals, may reach the climate target. To tackle this research question, we employ the coupled climate-energy-economy integrated assessment Model of INvestment and endogenous technological Development (MIND, cf. Edenhofer et al., 2005, Neubersch et al. 2014). Extending MIND's climate module to the two-box version used in the Dynamic Integrated model of Climate and the Economy (DICE, cf. Nordhaus and Sztorc, 2013, Nordhaus 2014), we perform a cost-effectiveness analysis with constraints on anthropogenic carbon emissions. We show that a climate policy scenario with early decarbonization complies with the 2° C climate target, even without Carbon Capturing and Storage (CCS) or negative emissions (see van Vuuren et al., 2013, for negative emissions). However, using emission inertia of 3.7 percent annually, reflecting the inflexibility on transforming the energy sector, we find a climate policy with moderately low emissions from 2100 onwards at a cost in terms of Balanced Growth Equivalents (BGE, cf. Anthoff and Tol, 2009) of 0.764 % that requires an early (2035 vs. 2120) peak of investments in renewable energy production compared to a business-as-usual scenario. Hence, decarbonizing the global economy and achieving the 2 °C target might still be possible before 2100, but the window of opportunity is beginning to close. References: Anthoff, D., and Tol, R

  20. Sustainability assessment of urban policy scenarios: analysing the impacts of land use-transportation interaction in the Lisbon Metropolitan Area

    OpenAIRE

    Campo, Sofía

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to analyse the impacts of future urban policy scenarios in the Lisbon region with the support of the Land Use and Transportation Impact Assessment integrated modelling framework for Lisbon (LUTIA-Lx). Three policy scenarios are analysed: (i) a business as usual scenario, consisting of minimum policy controls; (ii) a medium impact control scenario which builds on the propositions of national and regional policies; and (iii) a high impact control scenario which buil...

  1. Energy reference scenario 2000-2020 for emission calculations of the Federal Bureau of Environment Protection; Energiereferenzszenario 2000-2020 fuer Emissionsberechnungen des Umweltbundesamtes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schaerer, Bernd (comp.)

    2005-12-15

    Not only the measured emission values, but also the calculated emission freight is important in the environmental policy. The reporting of the development of emissions for air pollutants and greenhouse gases for the emission computation is as important as the supply of emission prognoses to the design of the politics of air pollution control. Under this aspect, the author of the contribution under consideration reports on an energy reference scenario for emission computations of the Federal Office for Environment Protection (Dessau-Rosslau, Federal Republic of Germany). The following aspects are described: (a) Development of the energy reference scenario; (b) Framework data for the prognosis; (c) Assumptions to the energy policy and environmental policy; (d) Energy consumption in the energy reference scenario.

  2. US National Climate Assessment (NCA) Scenarios for Assessing Our Climate Future: Issues and Methodological Perspectives Background Whitepaper for Participants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moss, Richard H.; Engle, Nathan L.; Hall, John; Jacobs, Kathy; Lempert, Rob; Mearns, L. O.; Melillo, Jerry; Mote, Phil; O' Brien, Sheila; Rosenzweig, C.; Ruane, Alex; Sheppard, Stephen; Vallario, Robert W.; Wiek, Arnim; Wilbanks, Thomas

    2011-10-01

    This whitepaper is intended to provide a starting point for discussion at a workshop for the National Climate Assessment (NCA) that focuses on the use and development of scenarios. The paper will provide background needed by participants in the workshop in order to review options for developing and using scenarios in NCA. The paper briefly defines key terms and establishes a conceptual framework for developing consistent scenarios across different end uses and spatial scales. It reviews uses of scenarios in past U.S. national assessments and identifies potential users of and needs for scenarios for both the report scheduled for release in June 2013 and to support an ongoing distributed assessment process in sectors and regions around the country. Because scenarios prepared for the NCA will need to leverage existing research, the paper takes account of recent scientific advances and activities that could provide needed inputs. Finally, it considers potential approaches for providing methods, data, and other tools for assessment participants. We note that the term 'scenarios' has many meanings. An important goal of the whitepaper (and portions of the workshop agenda) is pedagogical (i.e., to compare different meanings and uses of the term and make assessment participants aware of the need to be explicit about types and uses of scenarios). In climate change research, scenarios have been used to establish bounds for future climate conditions and resulting effects on human and natural systems, given a defined level of greenhouse gas emissions. This quasi-predictive use contrasts with the way decision analysts typically use scenarios (i.e., to consider how robust alternative decisions or strategies may be to variation in key aspects of the future that are uncertain). As will be discussed, in climate change research and assessment, scenarios describe a range of aspects of the future, including major driving forces (both human activities and natural processes

  3. Performance Assessment of a Solar-Assisted Desiccant-Based Air Handling Unit Considering Different Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giovanni Angrisani

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, three alternative layouts (scenarios of an innovative solar-assisted hybrid desiccant-based air handling unit (AHU are investigated through dynamic simulations. Performance is evaluated with respect to a reference system and compared to those of the innovative plant without modifications. For each scenario, different collector types, surfaces and tilt angles are considered. The effect of the solar thermal energy surplus exploitation for other low-temperature uses is also investigated. The first alternative scenario consists of the recovery of the heat rejected by the condenser of the chiller to pre-heat the regeneration air. The second scenario considers the pre-heating of regeneration air with the warmer regeneration air exiting the desiccant wheel (DW. The last scenario provides pre-cooling of the process air before entering the DW. Results reveal that the plants with evacuated solar collectors (SC can ensure primary energy savings (15%–24% and avoid equivalent CO2 emissions (14%–22%, about 10 percentage points more than those with flat-plate collectors, when the solar thermal energy is used only for air conditioning and the collectors have the best tilt angle. If all of the solar thermal energy is considered, the best results with evacuated tube collectors are approximately 73% in terms of primary energy saving, 71% in terms of avoided equivalent CO2 emissions and a payback period of six years.

  4. Scenario Simulation-Based Assessment of Trip Difficulty for Urban Residents under Rainstorm Waterlogging

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yingyue Sun

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available In this study, an experiment was performed to assess the trip difficulty for urban residents of different age groups walking in various depths of water, and the data were corroborated with the real urban rainstorm waterlogging scenarios in downtown (Daoli district Ha-Erbin (China. Mathematical models of urban rainstorm waterlogging were constructed using scenario simulation methods, aided by the GIS spatial analysis technology and hydrodynamic analysis of the waterway systems in the study area. Then these models were used to evaluate the impact of waterlogging on the safety of residents walking in the affected area. Results are summarized as: (1 for an urban rainstorm waterlogging scenario reoccurring once every 10 years, three grid regions would have waterlogging above 0.5 m moving at a velocity of 1.5 m/s. Under this scenario, waterlogging would accumulate on traffic roads only in small areas, affecting the safety and mobility of residents walking in the neighborhood; (2 for an urban rainstorm waterlogging scenario reoccurring once every 20 years, 13 grids experienced the same waterlogging situation affecting a larger area of the city; (3 for an urban rainstorm waterlogging scenario reoccurring once every 50 years, 86 grid regions were affected (waterlogging above 0.5 m moving at 1.5 m/s, and those areas would become impassable for residents.

  5. Scenario development for performance assessment - some questions for the near-field modelers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barr, G.E.; Barnard, R.W. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    1993-12-31

    In an attempt to achieve completeness and consistency, the performance-assessment analyses developed by the Yucca Mountain Project are tied to scenarios described in event trees. Development of scenarios requires describing the constituent features, events, and processes in detail. Several features and processes occurring at the waste packages and the rock immediately surrounding the packages (i.e., the near field) have been identified: The effects of radiation on fluids in the near-field rock, the path-dependency of rock-water interactions, and the partitioning of contaminant transport between colloids and solutes. This paper discusses some questions regarding these processes that the near-field performance-assessment modelers will need to have answered to specify those portions of scenarios dealing with the near field.

  6. Scenario development for performance assessment: Some questions for the near-field modelers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barr, G.E.; Barnard, R.W.

    1992-12-31

    In an attempt to achieve completeness and consistency, the performance-assessment analyses developed by the Yucca Mountain Project are tied to scenarios described in event trees. Development of scenarios requires describing the constituent features, events, and processes in detail. Several features and processes occurring at the waste packages and the rock immediately surrounding the packages (i.e., the near field) have been identified: the effects of radiation on fluids in the near-field rock, the path-dependency of rock-water interactions, and the partitioning of contaminant transport between colloids and solutes. This paper discusses some questions regarding these processes that the near-field performance-assessment modelers will need to have answered to specify those portions of scenarios dealing with the near field.

  7. Participatory scenario development for integrated assessment of nutrient flows in a Catalan river catchment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Caille

    2007-11-01

    Full Text Available Rivers in developed regions are under significant stress due to nutrient enrichment generated mainly by human activities. Excess nitrogen and phosphorus emissions are the product of complex dynamic systems influenced by various factors such as demographic, socio-economic and technological development. Using a Catalan river catchment, La Tordera (North-East of Spain, as a case study of an integrated and interdisciplinary environmental assessment of nutrient flows, we present and discuss the development of narrative socio-economic scenarios through a participatory process for the sustainable management of the anthropogenic sources of nutrients, nitrogen and phosphorus. In this context, scenarios are an appropriate tool to assist nutrient emissions modelling, and to assess impacts, possible pathways for socio-economic development and associated uncertainties. Evaluated against the 1993–2003 baseline period, scenarios target the 2030 horizon, i.e. through the implementation process of the Water Framework Directive (Directive 2000/60/EC. After a critical examination of the methodology used in the participatory development of socio-economic scenarios, we present four possible futures (or perspectives for the Catalan river catchment conceived by stakeholders invited to a workshop. Keys to the success of such a participatory process were trust, which enhanced openness, and disagreements, which fostered the group's creativity for scenario development. The translation of narrative socio-economic scenarios into meaningful nutrient emission scenarios is also discussed. By integrating findings of natural sciences and socio-economic analysis, we aim to assist decision makers and stakeholders in evaluating optimal management strategies for the anthropogenic sources of nitrogen and phosphorus.

  8. Participatory scenario development for integrated assessment of nutrient flows in a Catalan river catchment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caille, F.; Riera, J. L.; Rodríguez-Labajos, B.; Middelkoop, H.; Rosell-Melé, A.

    2007-11-01

    Rivers in developed regions are under significant stress due to nutrient enrichment generated mainly by human activities. Excess nitrogen and phosphorus emissions are the product of complex dynamic systems influenced by various factors such as demographic, socio-economic and technological development. Using a Catalan river catchment, La Tordera (North-East of Spain), as a case study of an integrated and interdisciplinary environmental assessment of nutrient flows, we present and discuss the development of narrative socio-economic scenarios through a participatory process for the sustainable management of the anthropogenic sources of nutrients, nitrogen and phosphorus. In this context, scenarios are an appropriate tool to assist nutrient emissions modelling, and to assess impacts, possible pathways for socio-economic development and associated uncertainties. Evaluated against the 1993-2003 baseline period, scenarios target the 2030 horizon, i.e. through the implementation process of the Water Framework Directive (Directive 2000/60/EC). After a critical examination of the methodology used in the participatory development of socio-economic scenarios, we present four possible futures (or perspectives) for the Catalan river catchment conceived by stakeholders invited to a workshop. Keys to the success of such a participatory process were trust, which enhanced openness, and disagreements, which fostered the group's creativity for scenario development. The translation of narrative socio-economic scenarios into meaningful nutrient emission scenarios is also discussed. By integrating findings of natural sciences and socio-economic analysis, we aim to assist decision makers and stakeholders in evaluating optimal management strategies for the anthropogenic sources of nitrogen and phosphorus.

  9. Specificity, contexts, and reference groups matter when assessing autistic traits.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gernsbacher, Morton Ann; Stevenson, Jennifer L; Dern, Sebastian

    2017-01-01

    Many of the personality and behavioral traits (e.g., social imperviousness, directness in conversation, lack of imagination, affinity for solitude, difficulty displaying emotions) that are known to be sensitive to context (with whom?) and reference group (according to whom?) also appear in questionnaire-based assessments of autistic traits. Therefore, two experiments investigated the effects of specifying contexts and reference groups when assessing autistic traits in autistic and non-autistic participants. Experiment 1 (124 autistic and 124 non-autistic participants) demonstrated that context matters when assessing autistic traits (F(1,244) = 267.5, p Autism Phenotype Questionnaire was specified as the participants' out-group (e.g., "I like being around non-autistic people" or "I like being around autistic people"), both autistic and non-autistic participants self-reported having more autistic traits; when the context was specified as the participants' in-group, participants reported having fewer autistic traits. Experiment 2 (82 autistic and 82 non-autistic participants) demonstrated that reference group matters when assessing autistic traits (F(2,160) = 94.38, p people, I have unusual eye contact"), autistic participants reported having more autistic traits; when the reference group was their in-group, autistic participants reported having fewer autistic traits. Non-autistic participants appeared insensitive to reference group on the Social Responsiveness Scale. Exploratory analyses suggested that when neither the context nor the reference group is specified (for assessing autistic traits on the Autism-Spectrum Quotient), both autistic and non-autistic participants use the majority ("non-autistic people") as the implied context and reference group.

  10. Assessing the Psychometric Properties of a Scenario-Based Measure of Achievement Guilt and Shame

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Ted; Sharp, Jessica; Alexander, James

    2008-01-01

    In this study, the psychometric properties of the scenario-based Achievement Guilt and Shame Scale (AGSS) were established. The AGSS and scales assessing interpersonal guilt and shame, high standards, overgeneralization, self-criticism, self-esteem, academic self-concept, fear of failure, and tendency to respond in a socially desirable manner were…

  11. Choosing and using climate change scenarios for ecological-impact assessments and conservation decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amy K. Snover,; Nathan J. Mantua,; Littell, Jeremy; Michael A. Alexander,; Michelle M. McClure,; Janet Nye,

    2013-01-01

    Increased concern over climate change is demonstrated by the many efforts to assess climate effects and develop adaptation strategies. Scientists, resource managers, and decision makers are increasingly expected to use climate information, but they struggle with its uncertainty. With the current proliferation of climate simulations and downscaling methods, scientifically credible strategies for selecting a subset for analysis and decision making are needed. Drawing on a rich literature in climate science and impact assessment and on experience working with natural resource scientists and decision makers, we devised guidelines for choosing climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment that recognize irreducible uncertainty in climate projections and address common misconceptions about this uncertainty. This approach involves identifying primary local climate drivers by climate sensitivity of the biological system of interest; determining appropriate sources of information for future changes in those drivers; considering how well processes controlling local climate are spatially resolved; and selecting scenarios based on considering observed emission trends, relative importance of natural climate variability, and risk tolerance and time horizon of the associated decision. The most appropriate scenarios for a particular analysis will not necessarily be the most appropriate for another due to differences in local climate drivers, biophysical linkages to climate, decision characteristics, and how well a model simulates the climate parameters and processes of interest. Given these complexities, we recommend interaction among climate scientists, natural and physical scientists, and decision makers throughout the process of choosing and using climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment.

  12. An Integrated Hydro-Economic Modelling Framework to Evaluate Water Allocation Strategies II: Scenario Assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    George, B.; Malano, H.; Davidson, B.; Hellegers, P.J.G.J.; Bharati, L.; Sylvain, M.

    2011-01-01

    In this paper the results of an assessment of the hydrological and economic implications of reallocating water in the Musi sub-basin, a catchment within the Krishna Basin in India, are reported. Policy makers identified a number of different but plausible scenarios that could apply in the sub-basin,

  13. Projecting county-level populations under three future scenarios: a technical document supporting the Forest Service 2010 RPA Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stanley J. Zarnoch; H. Ken Cordell; Carter J. Betz; Linda Langner

    2010-01-01

    County-level population projections from 2010 to 2060 are developed under three national population growth scenarios for reporting in the 2010 Renewable Resources Planning Act (RPA) Assessment. These population growth scenarios are tied to global futures scenarios defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a program within the United Nations...

  14. Assessment of wind and solar power in global low-carbon energy scenarios: An introduction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Luderer, Gunnar; Pietzcker, Robert C.; Carrara, Samuel; de Boer, Harmen Sytze; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Johnson, Nils; Mima, Silvana; Arent, Douglas

    2017-04-07

    This preface introduces the special section on the assessment of wind and solar in global low-carbon energy scenarios. The special section documents the results of a coordinated research effort to improve the representation of variable renewable energies (VRE), including wind and solar power, in Integrated Assessment Models (IAM) and presents an overview of the results obtained in the underlying coordinated model inter-comparison exercise.

  15. Climate change impact assessment on Veneto and Friuli Plain groundwater. Part I: an integrated modeling approach for hazard scenario construction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baruffi, F; Cisotto, A; Cimolino, A; Ferri, M; Monego, M; Norbiato, D; Cappelletto, M; Bisaglia, M; Pretner, A; Galli, A; Scarinci, A; Marsala, V; Panelli, C; Gualdi, S; Bucchignani, E; Torresan, S; Pasini, S; Critto, A; Marcomini, A

    2012-12-01

    Climate change impacts on water resources, particularly groundwater, is a highly debated topic worldwide, triggering international attention and interest from both researchers and policy makers due to its relevant link with European water policy directives (e.g. 2000/60/EC and 2007/118/EC) and related environmental objectives. The understanding of long-term impacts of climate variability and change is therefore a key challenge in order to address effective protection measures and to implement sustainable management of water resources. This paper presents the modeling approach adopted within the Life+ project TRUST (Tool for Regional-scale assessment of groUndwater Storage improvement in adaptation to climaTe change) in order to provide climate change hazard scenarios for the shallow groundwater of high Veneto and Friuli Plain, Northern Italy. Given the aim to evaluate potential impacts on water quantity and quality (e.g. groundwater level variation, decrease of water availability for irrigation, variations of nitrate infiltration processes), the modeling approach integrated an ensemble of climate, hydrologic and hydrogeologic models running from the global to the regional scale. Global and regional climate models and downscaling techniques were used to make climate simulations for the reference period 1961-1990 and the projection period 2010-2100. The simulation of the recent climate was performed using observed radiative forcings, whereas the projections have been done prescribing the radiative forcings according to the IPCC A1B emission scenario. The climate simulations and the downscaling, then, provided the precipitation, temperatures and evapo-transpiration fields used for the impact analysis. Based on downscaled climate projections, 3 reference scenarios for the period 2071-2100 (i.e. the driest, the wettest and the mild year) were selected and used to run a regional geomorphoclimatic and hydrogeological model. The final output of the model ensemble produced

  16. The sensitivity of agricultural impacts assessment to climate data and scenario methodologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruane, A. C.; Rosenzweig, C.

    2011-12-01

    Assessments of climate change impacts on the agricultural sector are crucially important from the farm- to global levels. While impacts assessments have made wide and creative use of data products, climate models, and methods for downscaling and scenario generation, this variety also hinders our ability to compare impacts from one study to other assessments. The unique nature of many impacts assessments is especially problematic when evaluating the impacts of climate change on large agricultural regions and global production; a crucial scale in understanding the economic impacts and market influence on food security and land use. This presentation examines the influence of methodological choices on agricultural impacts assessment by describing results from several projects. First, the utility of a wide variety of global and regional observational data products are compared for an agricultural system in the Florida Panhandle to determine the influence of observational uncertainties, reanalysis products, remotely sensed information, and downscaled models on impacts assessment. Second, the role of future climate scenarios is isolated by running the same Panhandle station with scenarios generated through a variety of generation methods with a focus on downscaling methodologies and the climate statistics allowed to change. Finally, an ensemble of weather generators are compared across an ensemble of wheat models in a variety of major agricultural regions, isolating important sensitivities in the crop models and corresponding strengths and weaknesses in the weather generators.

  17. Climate Change Impact Assessment on Han River Long Term Runoff in South Korea Based on RCP Climate Change Scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seung Jin Hong

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The 2007 World Economic Forum (WEF referred to climate change as the overriding problem we face. Concerns have been raised about how global warming would accelerate future climate change and its consequences. Many climate change studies expect the possible occurrence of extreme high temperature, increase in heavy rains and strong typhoons in the near future. Currently, climate change scenarios are used to prepare an appropriate plan for these phenomena under climate change. The main purpose of this paper is to suggest and evaluate an operational method of assessing the potential impact of climate change on hydrologic components and water resources at the regional scale. Future runoff was simulated using high resolution Regional Circulation Model (RCM (12.5 × 12.5 km Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP scenario operated by the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA and a semi-distribution model or SLURP (Semi-distributed Land Use-based Runoff Process. The study was carried out on the Han River including its nine dams. The study found that runoff characteristics, especially annual distribution, could change. The discharge in July tends to decrease while runoff can increase in August and September. The flow duration curve was estimated and compared with observed data and simulated daily runoff data for Paldang-dam to evaluate the effect of climate change. The analysis of the flow duration curve shows that the mean average low flow increased while the average wet and normal flow decreased under the climate change scenario.

  18. No-reference blur assessment of digital pictures based on multifeature classifiers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ciancio, Alexandre; da Costa, André Luiz N Targino; da Silva, Eduardo A B; Said, Amir; Samadani, Ramin; Obrador, Pere

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, we address the problem of no-reference quality assessment for digital pictures corrupted with blur. We start with the generation of a large real image database containing pictures taken by human users in a variety of situations, and the conduction of subjective tests to generate the ground truth associated to those images. Based upon this ground truth, we select a number of high quality pictures and artificially degrade them with different intensities of simulated blur (gaussian and linear motion), totalling 6000 simulated blur images. We extensively evaluate the performance of state-of-the-art strategies for no-reference blur quantification in different blurring scenarios, and propose a paradigm for blur evaluation in which an effective method is pursued by combining several metrics and low-level image features. We test this paradigm by designing a no-reference quality assessment algorithm for blurred images which combines different metrics in a classifier based upon a neural network structure. Experimental results show that this leads to an improved performance that better reflects the images' ground truth. Finally, based upon the real image database, we show that the proposed method also outperforms other algorithms and metrics in realistic blur scenarios.

  19. Assessment of European Union transition scenarios with a special focus on the issue of carbon leakage

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bernard, Alain [MEEDDAT - ASSESSECO (France); Vielle, Marc [Economics and Environmental Management Laboratory - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology at Lausanne (EPFL), CH-1015 Lausanne (Switzerland); Toulouse School of Economics (LERNA) (France)

    2009-07-01

    This paper uses the model GEMINI-E3 to simulate and assess the transition scenario to 2020 framed by the European Union in its 'Energy-Climate' Directive, and it raises several issues in this connection. After a brief description of the model, the paper presents the results of the scenarios, mainly the values of the major indicators of carbon price - both in the ETS and in non-ETS sectors - and the welfare cost of the EU policy under the various configurations considered. While it is independent of the scenario in the ETS sector, in the non-ETS sector the value of carbon is very sensitive to the provisions of the Directive and in particular the option of resorting to the flexibility mechanisms. The welfare cost also varies significantly according to scenarios, and its value for the entire EU is more than double in the scenario closest to the Directive as compared to the least-cost one. The paper also addresses the very sensitive issue of carbon leakage and argues in favor of a new concept of ''net leakage.'' The analysis shows that while carbon leakage may affect some specific sectors, at the aggregate level it does not represent a real concern, with a magnitude of at most a few percent of GHG abatement by Annex B countries. (author)

  20. Specificity, contexts, and reference groups matter when assessing autistic traits

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stevenson, Jennifer L.; Dern, Sebastian

    2017-01-01

    Many of the personality and behavioral traits (e.g., social imperviousness, directness in conversation, lack of imagination, affinity for solitude, difficulty displaying emotions) that are known to be sensitive to context (with whom?) and reference group (according to whom?) also appear in questionnaire-based assessments of autistic traits. Therefore, two experiments investigated the effects of specifying contexts and reference groups when assessing autistic traits in autistic and non-autistic participants. Experiment 1 (124 autistic and 124 non-autistic participants) demonstrated that context matters when assessing autistic traits (F(1,244) = 267.5, p Autism Phenotype Questionnaire was specified as the participants’ out-group (e.g., “I like being around non-autistic people” or “I like being around autistic people”), both autistic and non-autistic participants self-reported having more autistic traits; when the context was specified as the participants’ in-group, participants reported having fewer autistic traits. Experiment 2 (82 autistic and 82 non-autistic participants) demonstrated that reference group matters when assessing autistic traits (F(2,160) = 94.38, p Autism-Spectrum Quotient), both autistic and non-autistic participants use the majority (“non-autistic people”) as the implied context and reference group. PMID:28192464

  1. Reimbursement of pharmaceuticals: Reference pricing versus health technology assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M. Drummond (Michael); B. Jönsson (Bengt); F.F.H. Rutten (Frans); T. Stargardt (Tom)

    2011-01-01

    textabstractReference pricing and health technology assessment are policies commonly applied in order to obtain more value for money from pharmaceuticals. This study focussed on decisions about the initial price and reimbursement status of innovative drugs and discussed the consequences for market

  2. Environmental assessment of amine-based carbon capture Scenario modelling with life cycle assessment (LCA)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brekke, Andreas; Askham, Cecilia; Modahl, Ingunn Saur; Vold, Bjoern Ivar; Johnsen, Fredrik Moltu

    2012-07-01

    This report contains a first attempt at introducing the environmental impacts associated with amines and derivatives in a life cycle assessment (LCA) of gas power production with carbon capture and comparing these with other environmental impacts associated with the production system. The report aims to identify data gaps and methodological challenges connected both to modelling toxicity of amines and derivatives and weighting of environmental impacts. A scenario based modelling exercise was performed on a theoretical gas power plant with carbon capture, where emission levels of nitrosamines were varied between zero (gas power without CCS) to a worst case level (outside the probable range of actual carbon capture facilities). Because of extensive research and development in the areas of solvents and emissions from carbon capture facilities in the latter years, data used in the exercise may be outdated and results should therefore not be taken at face value.The results from the exercise showed: According to UseTox, emissions of nitrosamines are less important than emissions of formaldehyde with regard to toxicity related to operation of (i.e. both inputs to and outputs from) a carbon capture facility. If characterisation factors for emissions of metals are included, these outweigh all other toxic emissions in the study. None of the most recent weighting methods in LCA include characterisation factors for nitrosamines, and these are therefore not part of the environmental ranking.These results shows that the EDecIDe project has an important role to play in developing LCA methodology useful for assessing the environmental performance of amine based carbon capture in particular and CCS in general. The EDecIDe project will examine the toxicity models used in LCA in more detail, specifically UseTox. The applicability of the LCA compartment models and site specificity issues for a Norwegian/Arctic situation will be explored. This applies to the environmental compartments

  3. Scenario Methodology for Modelling of Future Landscape Developments as Basis for Assessing Ecosystem Services

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthias Rosenberg

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available The ecosystems of our intensively used European landscapes produce a variety of natural goods and services for the benefit of humankind, and secure the basics and quality of life. Because these ecosystems are still undergoing fundamental changes, the interest of the society is to know more about future developments and their ecological impacts. To describe and analyze these changes, scenarios can be developed and an assessment of the ecological changes can be carried out subsequently. In the project „Landscape Saxony 2050“; a methodology for the construction of exploratory scenarios was worked out. The presented methodology provides a possibility to identify the driving forces (socio-cultural, economic and ecological conditions of the landscape development. It allows to indicate possible future paths which lead to a change of structures and processes in the landscape and can influence the capability to provide ecosystem services. One essential component of the applied technique is that an approach for the assessment of the effects of the landscape changes on ecosystem services is integrated into the developed scenario methodology. Another is, that the methodology is strong designed as participatory, i.e. stakeholders are integrated actively. The method is a seven phase model which provides the option for the integration of the stakeholders‘ participation at all levels of scenario development. The scenario framework was applied to the district of Görlitz, an area of 2100 sq km located at the eastern border of Germany. The region is affected by strong demographic as well as economic changes. The core issue focused on the examination of landscape change in terms of biodiversity. Together with stakeholders, a trend scenario and two alternative scenarios were developed. The changes of the landscape structure are represented in story lines, maps and tables. On basis of the driving forces of the issue areas „cultural / social values“ and

  4. Agricultural conservation planning framework: 1. Developing multipractice watershed planning scenarios and assessing nutrient reduction potential.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tomer, M D; Porter, S A; Boomer, K M B; James, D E; Kostel, J A; Helmers, M J; Isenhart, T M; McLellan, E

    2015-05-01

    Spatial data on soils, land use, and topography, combined with knowledge of conservation effectiveness, can be used to identify alternatives to reduce nutrient discharge from small (hydrologic unit code [HUC]12) watersheds. Databases comprising soil attributes, agricultural land use, and light detection and ranging-derived elevation models were developed for two glaciated midwestern HUC12 watersheds: Iowa's Beaver Creek watershed has an older dissected landscape, and Lime Creek in Illinois is young and less dissected. Subsurface drainage is common in both watersheds. We identified locations for conservation practices, including in-field practices (grassed waterways), edge-of-field practices (nutrient-removal wetlands, saturated buffers), and drainage-water management, by applying terrain analyses, geographic criteria, and cross-classifications to field- and watershed-scale geographic data. Cover crops were randomly distributed to fields without geographic prioritization. A set of alternative planning scenarios was developed to represent a variety of extents of implementation among these practices. The scenarios were assessed for nutrient reduction potential using a spreadsheet approach to calculate the average nutrient-removal efficiency required among the practices included in each scenario to achieve a 40% NO-N reduction. Results were evaluated in the context of the Iowa Nutrient Reduction Strategy, which reviewed nutrient-removal efficiencies of practices and established the 40% NO-N reduction as Iowa's target for Gulf of Mexico hypoxia mitigation by agriculture. In both test watersheds, planning scenarios that could potentially achieve the targeted NO-N reduction but remove Cover crops and nutrient removal wetlands were common to these scenarios. This approach provides an interim technology to assist local watershed planning and could provide planning scenarios to evaluate using watershed simulation models. A set of ArcGIS tools is being released to enable

  5. No-Reference Video Quality Assessment by HEVC Codec Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Huang, Xin; Søgaard, Jacob; Forchhammer, Søren

    2015-01-01

    the transform coefficients, estimates the distortion, and assesses the video quality. The proposed scheme generates VQA features based on Intra coded frames, and then maps features using an Elastic Net to predict subjective video quality. A set of HEVC coded 4K UHD sequences are tested. Results show......This paper proposes a No-Reference (NR) Video Quality Assessment (VQA) method for videos subject to the distortion given by High Efficiency Video Coding (HEVC). The proposed assessment can be performed either as a BitstreamBased (BB) method or as a Pixel-Based (PB). It extracts or estimates...

  6. A Systematic Approach to Explorative Scenario Analysis in Emergy Assessment with Emphasis on Resilience

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kamp, Andreas; Østergård, Hanne

    2016-01-01

    Fossil energy depletion (specifically peak oil) and climate change are imagined to profoundly affect human civilisation. This motivates assessment of resilience, a concept associated with the ability to persist and maintain function. Explorative scenarios may be used to cast light on what...... the future may bring. We develop a systematic approach to explorative scenario analysis and attempt to quantify aspects of resilience specifically for emergy assessment (EmA) of production systems. We group system inputs into five categories: (1) fossil fuels, their derivatives, metals and minerals, (2) on....... A comparison of two specific production systems showed that different expectations of the future lead to contrasting conclusions regarding prioritisation. We use the insight gained in the study to suggest venues for sustainable development under changing societal conditions....

  7. Impact assessment of combined climate and management scenarios on groundwater resources and associated wetland (Majorca, Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Candela, Lucila; von Igel, Wolf; Javier Elorza, F.; Aronica, Giuseppe

    2009-10-01

    SummaryClimate change impact on a groundwater dependent wetland and natural recharge has been investigated in the Inca-Sa Pobla coastal aquifer for the year 2025. Temperature and precipitation based on the downscaled output from a general circulation model (GCM) was coupled to a groundwater model to estimate the impacts of climate change and management practices on groundwater. Management practices were based on changes in the volume of water extracted for agricultural and domestic purposes. Climate change impacts on the hydrogeological system were based on downscaled HadCM3 outputs for future medium-high (A2) and medium-low (B2) greenhouse gas scenarios developed by the IPCC [IPCC, 2001. Climate change 2001: the scientific basis. In: Houghton, J.T., Ding, Y., Griggs, D.J., Noguer, M., Van Der Linden, P.J., Dai, X., Maskell, K., Johnson, C.A. (Eds.), Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 881 pp]. Assessment of the impacts on the water level of the wetland were carried out by estimating the flow rate of springs discharging from the aquifer obtained by changes of agricultural land use and water supply allocation and variation of recharge according climate scenarios. The greatest reduction in recharge was observed in scenario A2 (-21%), while recharge in scenario B2 remained relatively unchanged (-4%). However, as uncertainties arising from GCM outputs maybe greater than the differences simulated here results are only indicative of the system response. In order to preserve the spring discharge at its current level (17 Mm 3/yr), which successfully prevents the wetland from drying up, a decrease in groundwater extraction is needed. In addition, the reallocation of agricultural wells is recommended under both scenarios. Spring discharge was affected the most by agricultural wells located near the wetland, as indicated by

  8. Safety case for the disposal of spent nuclear fuel at Olkiluoto. Assessment of radionuclide release scenarios for the repository system 2012

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2012-12-15

    , taking into account the uncertainty in timing and in the number of canisters potentially affected. Peak normalised releases for all calculation cases for the base, variant and disturbance scenarios are below the nuclide-specific constraints for the radioactive releases to the environment, as set out by the Finnish regulator, generally by more than an order of magnitude, even taking into account the possibility of multiple canister failures. Possible binary combinations of scenarios have been considered. Many can be excluded from detailed analysis on qualitative grounds. Where it is appropriate to sum the release rate of two different scenarios, the combined release rate to the surface environment still does not exceed the regulatory constraint. Finnish regulations also require an assessment of doses to humans, plants and animals, which should extend over a period in which such an assessment can be performed with sufficient reliability, with a minimum of several millennia. As a consequence, the period up to 10,000 years is referred to by Posiva as the dose criteria time window. Releases to the surface environment within the dose criteria time window are found to occur in the base scenario Reference Case, in some sensitivity cases for the base and variant scenarios and in one what-if case for the disturbance scenarios (AIC-LI). Biosphere modelling is carried out for these calculation cases and reported in Biosphere Assessment. (orig.)

  9. The reference energy scenario of the DGEMP for 2030,there's many a slip twixt the cup and the lip; Le scenario energetique de reference de la DGEMP pour 2030, ou il y a loin de la coupe aux levres

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Acket, C.; Nifenecker, H

    2008-05-15

    The authors discuss the energy reference scenario for 2030, proposed by the DGEMP. This scenario is published every 4 years. It represents the french energy situation in 2030, if no new energy policy was decided, in particularly no new measure from the Grenelle of the environment. The scenario supposes also no energy crisis in the fossil fuels supply and the fuels prices. In this topic, the objective of a contribution of 20% of renewable energies in the final energy consumption, seems possible. (A.L.B.)

  10. Choosing and using climate-change scenarios for ecological-impact assessments and conservation decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Snover, Amy K; Mantua, Nathan J; Littell, Jeremy S; Alexander, Michael A; McClure, Michelle M; Nye, Janet

    2013-12-01

    Increased concern over climate change is demonstrated by the many efforts to assess climate effects and develop adaptation strategies. Scientists, resource managers, and decision makers are increasingly expected to use climate information, but they struggle with its uncertainty. With the current proliferation of climate simulations and downscaling methods, scientifically credible strategies for selecting a subset for analysis and decision making are needed. Drawing on a rich literature in climate science and impact assessment and on experience working with natural resource scientists and decision makers, we devised guidelines for choosing climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment that recognize irreducible uncertainty in climate projections and address common misconceptions about this uncertainty. This approach involves identifying primary local climate drivers by climate sensitivity of the biological system of interest; determining appropriate sources of information for future changes in those drivers; considering how well processes controlling local climate are spatially resolved; and selecting scenarios based on considering observed emission trends, relative importance of natural climate variability, and risk tolerance and time horizon of the associated decision. The most appropriate scenarios for a particular analysis will not necessarily be the most appropriate for another due to differences in local climate drivers, biophysical linkages to climate, decision characteristics, and how well a model simulates the climate parameters and processes of interest. Given these complexities, we recommend interaction among climate scientists, natural and physical scientists, and decision makers throughout the process of choosing and using climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment. Selección y Uso de Escenarios de Cambio Climático para Estudios de Impacto Ecológico y Decisiones de Conservación. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

  11. A hybrid approach to incorporating climate change and variability into climate scenario for impact assessments

    OpenAIRE

    Gebretsadik, Yohannes; Strzepek, Kenneth; Schlosser, C. Adam

    2014-01-01

    Traditional 'delta-change' approach of scenario generation for climate change impact assessment to water resources strongly depends on the selected base-case observed historical climate conditions that the climate shocks are to be super-imposed. This method disregards the combined effect of climate change and the inherent hydro-climatological variability in the system. Here we demonstrated a hybrid uncertainty approach in which uncertainties in historical climate variability are combined with...

  12. A Methodology for Integrated, Multiregional Life Cycle Assessment Scenarios under Large-Scale Technological Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gibon, Thomas; Wood, Richard; Arvesen, Anders; Bergesen, Joseph D; Suh, Sangwon; Hertwich, Edgar G

    2015-09-15

    Climate change mitigation demands large-scale technological change on a global level and, if successfully implemented, will significantly affect how products and services are produced and consumed. In order to anticipate the life cycle environmental impacts of products under climate mitigation scenarios, we present the modeling framework of an integrated hybrid life cycle assessment model covering nine world regions. Life cycle assessment databases and multiregional input-output tables are adapted using forecasted changes in technology and resources up to 2050 under a 2 °C scenario. We call the result of this modeling "technology hybridized environmental-economic model with integrated scenarios" (THEMIS). As a case study, we apply THEMIS in an integrated environmental assessment of concentrating solar power. Life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions for this plant range from 33 to 95 g CO2 eq./kWh across different world regions in 2010, falling to 30-87 g CO2 eq./kWh in 2050. Using regional life cycle data yields insightful results. More generally, these results also highlight the need for systematic life cycle frameworks that capture the actual consequences and feedback effects of large-scale policies in the long term.

  13. An Assessment of Global Electric-Sector Water Demands to 2100 under the Latest Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ando, N.; Yoshikawa, S.; Kanae, S.

    2016-12-01

    Electricity demands are likely to continue growing in the coming decades, due to population and economy growth. The electric growth could lead water demands to increase because some kinds of power generation methods such as thermal power generation require large amount of water. Many countries still rely on thermal power generation. Thus, we are concerned that electricity generation could be a big factor to accelerate water scarcity. In this study, to assess the electric-sector impacts on water demands, we estimated future electric-sector water withdrawal and consumption in 17 regions from 2010 to 2100. The water withdrawal and consumption are calculated by using electricity generation and water demand intensities. The data set of future electricity generation is derived by the Asia-Pacific Integrated Model. This model applied the latest scenarios for global climate change studies, the socio-economic scenario (SSPs) and the radiative forcing scenario (RCPs). We used the water demands intensity data set of Macknick et al. (2012). Water demand intensities for power plants considerably varies by power plant cooling systems. Therefore, we constructed cooling system share scenarios. Our results indicated that by 2100, the water withdrawal and consumption in current developing countries increased and caught up with that in current developed countries. We found that socio-economic scenarios (SSPs) has large impacts on the water withdrawal and consumption. Sustainable society (SSP1) and conventional development society (SSP5) have higher economic growth than fragmentation society (SSP3). The sustainable society needs smaller amount of the water withdrawal and consumption compared with fragmentation society. In contrast, the conventional development society needs larger amount of the water withdrawal and consumption compared with fragmentation society. Therefore, higher economic growth did not always lead less electric-sector water withdrawal and consumption. A shift of

  14. Assessing Interventions to Manage West Nile Virus Using Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis with Risk Scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hongoh, Valerie; Campagna, Céline; Panic, Mirna; Samuel, Onil; Gosselin, Pierre; Waaub, Jean-Philippe; Ravel, André; Samoura, Karim; Michel, Pascal

    2016-01-01

    The recent emergence of West Nile virus (WNV) in North America highlights vulnerability to climate sensitive diseases and stresses the importance of preventive efforts to reduce their public health impact. Effective prevention involves reducing environmental risk of exposure and increasing adoption of preventive behaviours, both of which depend on knowledge and acceptance of such measures. When making operational decisions about disease prevention and control, public health must take into account a wide range of operational, environmental, social and economic considerations in addition to intervention effectiveness. The current study aimed to identify, assess and rank possible risk reduction measures taking into account a broad set of criteria and perspectives applicable to the management of WNV in Quebec under increasing transmission risk scenarios, some of which may be related to ongoing warming in higher-latitude regions. A participatory approach was used to collect information on categories of concern to relevant stakeholders with respect to WNV prevention and control. Multi-criteria decision analysis was applied to examine stakeholder perspectives and their effect on strategy rankings under increasing transmission risk scenarios. Twenty-three preventive interventions were retained for evaluation using eighteen criteria identified by stakeholders. Combined evaluations revealed that, at an individual-level, inspecting window screen integrity, wearing light colored, long clothing, eliminating peridomestic larval sites and reducing outdoor activities at peak times were top interventions under six WNV transmission scenarios. At a regional-level, the use of larvicides was a preferred strategy in five out of six scenarios, while use of adulticides and dissemination of sterile male mosquitoes were found to be among the least favoured interventions in almost all scenarios. Our findings suggest that continued public health efforts aimed at reinforcing individual

  15. No-Reference Video Quality Assessment using MPEG Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Søgaard, Jacob; Forchhammer, Søren; Korhonen, Jari

    2013-01-01

    We present a method for No-Reference (NR) Video Quality Assessment (VQA) for decoded video without access to the bitstream. This is achieved by extracting and pooling features from a NR image quality assessment method used frame by frame. We also present methods to identify the video coding...... and estimate the video coding parameters for MPEG-2 and H.264/AVC which can be used to improve the VQA. The analysis differs from most other video coding analysis methods since it is without access to the bitstream. The results show that our proposed method is competitive with other recent NR VQA methods...

  16. No-reference visual quality assessment for image inpainting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voronin, V. V.; Frantc, V. A.; Marchuk, V. I.; Sherstobitov, A. I.; Egiazarian, K.

    2015-03-01

    Inpainting has received a lot of attention in recent years and quality assessment is an important task to evaluate different image reconstruction approaches. In many cases inpainting methods introduce a blur in sharp transitions in image and image contours in the recovery of large areas with missing pixels and often fail to recover curvy boundary edges. Quantitative metrics of inpainting results currently do not exist and researchers use human comparisons to evaluate their methodologies and techniques. Most objective quality assessment methods rely on a reference image, which is often not available in inpainting applications. Usually researchers use subjective quality assessment by human observers. It is difficult and time consuming procedure. This paper focuses on a machine learning approach for no-reference visual quality assessment for image inpainting based on the human visual property. Our method is based on observation that Local Binary Patterns well describe local structural information of the image. We use a support vector regression learned on assessed by human images to predict perceived quality of inpainted images. We demonstrate how our predicted quality value correlates with qualitative opinion in a human observer study. Results are shown on a human-scored dataset for different inpainting methods.

  17. Scenario for a Short-Term Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA in Chiayi, Taiwan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chung-Han Chan

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Using seismic activity and the Meishan earthquake sequence that occurred from 1904 to 1906, a scenario for short-term probabilistic seismic hazards in the Chiayi region of Taiwan is assessed. The long-term earthquake occurrence rate in Taiwan was evaluated using a smoothing kernel. The highest seismicity rate was calculated around the Chiayi region. To consider earthquake interactions, the rate-and-state friction model was introduced to estimate the seismicity rate evolution due to the Coulomb stress change. As imparted by the 1904 Touliu earthquake, stress changes near the 1906 Meishan and Yangshuigang epicenters was higher than the magnitude of tidal triggering. With regard to the impact of the Meishan earthquake, the region close to the Yangshuigang earthquake epicenter had a +0.75 bar stress increase. The results indicated significant interaction between the three damage events. Considering the path and site effect using ground motion prediction equations, a probabilistic seismic hazard in the form of a hazard evolution and a hazard map was assessed. A significant elevation in hazards following the three earthquakes in the sequence was determined. The results illustrate a possible scenario for seismic hazards in the Chiayi region which may take place repeatly in the future. Such scenario provides essential information on earthquake preparation, devastation estimations, emergency sheltering, utility restoration, and structure reconstruction.

  18. Scenario-based earthquake hazard and risk assessment for Baku (Azerbaijan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Babayev

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available A rapid growth of population, intensive civil and industrial building, land and water instabilities (e.g. landslides, significant underground water level fluctuations, and the lack of public awareness regarding seismic hazard contribute to the increase of vulnerability of Baku (the capital city of the Republic of Azerbaijan to earthquakes. In this study, we assess an earthquake risk in the city determined as a convolution of seismic hazard (in terms of the surface peak ground acceleration, PGA, vulnerability (due to building construction fragility, population features, the gross domestic product per capita, and landslide's occurrence, and exposure of infrastructure and critical facilities. The earthquake risk assessment provides useful information to identify the factors influencing the risk. A deterministic seismic hazard for Baku is analysed for four earthquake scenarios: near, far, local, and extreme events. The seismic hazard models demonstrate the level of ground shaking in the city: PGA high values are predicted in the southern coastal and north-eastern parts of the city and in some parts of the downtown. The PGA attains its maximal values for the local and extreme earthquake scenarios. We show that the quality of buildings and the probability of their damage, the distribution of urban population, exposure, and the pattern of peak ground acceleration contribute to the seismic risk, meanwhile the vulnerability factors play a more prominent role for all earthquake scenarios. Our results can allow elaborating strategic countermeasure plans for the earthquake risk mitigation in the Baku city.

  19. Research Residents' perceptions of skill decay: Effects of repeated skills assessments and scenario difficulty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Grace F; Forsyth, Katherine; Jenewein, Caitlin G; Ray, Rebecca D; DiMarco, Shannon; Pugh, Carla M

    2017-04-01

    Skills decay is a known risk for surgical residents who have dedicated research time. We hypothesize that simulation-based assessments will reveal significant differences in perceived skill decay when assessing a variety of clinical scenarios in a longitudinal fashion. Residents (N = 46; Returning: n = 16, New: n = 30) completed four simulated procedures: urinary catheterization, central line, bowel anastomosis, and laparoscopic ventral hernia repair. Perception surveys were administered pre- and post-simulation. Perceptions of skill decay and task difficulty were similar for both groups across three procedures pre- and post-simulation. Due to a simulation modification, new residents were more confident in urinary catheterization than returning residents (F(1,4) = 11.44, p = 0.002). In addition, when assessing expectations for skill reduction, returning residents perceived greater skill reduction upon reassessment when compared to first time residents (t(35) = 2.37, p = 0.023). Research residents may benefit from longitudinal skills assessments and a wider variety of simulation scenarios during their research years. TABLE OF CONTENTS SUMMARY: As part of a longitudinal study, we assessed research residents' confidence, perceptions of task difficulty and surgical skill reduction. Residents completed surveys pre- and post-experience with four simulated procedures: urinary catheterization, subclavian central line insertion, bowel anastomosis, and laparoscopic ventral hernia repair. Returning residents perceived greater skill reduction upon reassessment when compared to residents participating for the first time. In addition, modification of the clinical scenarios affected perceptions of skills decay. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. The development of climatic scenarios for assessing impacts of climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carter, T.; Tuomenvirta, H. [Finnish Meteorological Inst., Helsinki (Finland); Posch, M. [National Inst. of Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven (Netherlands)

    1995-12-31

    There is a growing recognition that mitigation measures for limiting future global changes in climate due to the enhanced greenhouse effect are unlikely to prevent some changes from occurring. Thus, if climate changes appear to be unavoidable, there is an increased need to evaluate their likely impacts on natural systems and human activities. Most impacts of climate change need to be examined at a regional scale, and their assessment requires up-to-date information on future regional climate changes. Unfortunately, accurate predictions of regional climate are not yet available. Instead, it is customary to construct climatic scenarios, which are plausible representations of future climate based on the best available information. This presentation outlines seven principles of climatic scenario development for impact studies, briefly describing some of the strengths and weaknesses of available methods and then illustrating one approach adopted in Finland

  1. On the Assessment of Global Terrestrial Reference Frame Temporal Variations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ampatzidis, Dimitrios; Koenig, Rolf; Zhu, Shengyuan

    2015-04-01

    Global Terrestrial Reference Frames (GTRFs) as the International Terrestrial Reference Frame (ITRF) provide reliable 4-D position information (3-D coordinates and their evolution through time). The given 3-D velocities play a significant role in precise position acquisition and are estimated from long term coordinate time series from the space-geodetic techniques DORIS, GNSS, SLR, and VLBI. GTRFs temporal evolution is directly connected with their internal stability: The more intense and inhomogeneous velocity field, the less stable TRF is derived. The assessment of the quality of the GTRF is mainly realized by comparing it to each individual technique's reference frame. E.g the comparison of GTRFs to SLR-only based TRF gives the sense of the ITRF stability with respect to the Geocenter and scale and their associated rates respectively. In addition, the comparison of ITRF to the VLBI-only based TRF can be used for the scale validation. However, till now there is not any specified methodology for the total assessment (in terms of origin, orientation and scale respectively) of the temporal evolution and GTRFs associated accuracy. We present a new alternative diagnostic tool for the assessment of GTRFs temporal evolution based on the well-known time-dependent Helmert type transformation formula (three shifts, three rotations and scale rates respectively). The advantage of the new methodology relies on the fact that it uses the full velocity field of the TRF and therefore all points not just the ones common to different techniques. It also examines simultaneously rates of origin, orientation and scale. The methodology is presented and implemented to the two existing GTRFs on the market (ITRF and DTRF which is computed from DGFI) , the results are discussed. The results also allow to compare directly each GTRF dynamic behavior. Furthermore, the correlations of the estimated parameters can also provide useful information to the proposed GTRFs assessment scheme.

  2. SCENARIO PLANNING AS LEARNING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio Lourenço Junior

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Scenario Planning has been increasingly used, from its introduction to the decision process as effective tools to test decisions, and improve performance in a dynamic environment (Chermack, 2005. The purpose of this article is to demonstrate the potential of an experimental Scenario Planning Model to mobilize, encourage and add more content to the organization’s decision making process – mainly with respect to Strategic Plans of two governmental institutions, a pharmaceutical company and a technology education foundation.  This study describes the application stages of a hybrid scenario-planning model – herein referred to as Planning as Learning – via action-research, showing the scenarios resulting from the experiment and describes the main results of an assessment of such practice. In order to do that, two well-established Scenario Planning models (Prospective school and Shell’s model were analyzed. They were used as a reference for the proposition and application of an experimental model in the two study objects. A questionnaire was used to assess the technique impact. It was possible to obtain high levels of reliability. In-depth interviews were also conducted with the participants. At the end, the results confirmed the model efficiency as a basis for decision making in the competitive environment in which the two institutions are inserted, also to encourage the learning process as a group, as observed throughout the work.

  3. No-Reference Video Quality Assessment using Codec Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Søgaard, Jacob; Forchhammer, Søren; Korhonen, Jari

    2015-01-01

    A no-reference video quality assessment (VQA) method is presented for videos distorted by H.264/AVC and MPEG-2. The assessment is performed without access to the bit-stream. Instead we analyze and estimate coefficients based on decoded pixels. The approach involves distinguishing between the two...... types of videos, estimating the level of quantization used in the I-frames, and exploiting this information to assess the video quality. In order to do this for H.264/AVC, the distribution of the DCT-coefficients after intra-prediction and deblocking are modeled. To obtain VQA features for H.264/AVC, we...... propose a novel estimation method of the quantization in H.264/AVC videos without bitstream access, which can also be used for Peak Signalto-Noise Ratio (PSNR) estimation. The results from the MPEG-2 and H.264/AVC analysis are mapped to a perceptual measure of video quality by Support Vector Regression...

  4. Coordinated scenarios for a transdisciplinary assessment of the scientific understanding of Arctic environmental change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ammann, C. M.; Holland, M. M.

    2016-12-01

    The Arctic is undergoing an exceptionally rapid transformation. Trying to predict or project the consequences of this change is pushing nearly every discipline in the physical, biogeochemical and social sciences towards the limits of their current understanding. Adequate data is missing to test and validate models for capturing a state of the Arctic system that we have not observed. But even more challenging is the systems-level evaluation, where impacts can quickly lead to unexpected outcomes with cascading repercussions throughout the different components and subcomponents of the environment. One approach to test our understanding, and to expose gaps in current observation strategies, modeling approaches as well as planning tools (e.g., forecast workflows, or decision frameworks) is to carefully design a small number of coordinated scenarios of plausible future states of the system, and then to study their diverse, potential impacts. A coordination of the scenarios is essential so that all disciplinary perspectives can be arranged around a common state, assumptions can be aligned, and a transdisciplinary conversation can be advanced from a common platform to form a comprehensive assessment of our knowledge. This presentation is a call to the community to join and assist the SEARCH program in designing effective scenarios that can be used for cross-cutting investigation of current limitations in our scientific understanding of how the Arctic environment might change, and what consequences these changes might bring to the physical, biological and social environments.

  5. Assessment of future impacts of potential climate change scenarios on aquifer recharge in continental Spain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pulido-Velazquez, David; Collados-Lara, Antonio-Juan; Alcalá, Francisco J.

    2017-04-01

    This research proposes and applies a method to assess potential impacts of future climatic scenarios on aquifer rainfall recharge in wide and varied regions. The continental Spain territory was selected to show the application. The method requires to generate future series of climatic variables (precipitation, temperature) in the system to simulate them within a previously calibrated hydrological model for the historical data. In a previous work, Alcalá and Custodio (2014) used the atmospheric chloride mass balance (CMB) method for the spatial evaluation of average aquifer recharge by rainfall over the whole of continental Spain, by assuming long-term steady conditions of the balance variables. The distributed average CMB variables necessary to calculate recharge were estimated from available variable-length data series of variable quality and spatial coverage. The CMB variables were regionalized by ordinary kriging at the same 4976 nodes of a 10 km x 10 km grid. Two main sources of uncertainty affecting recharge estimates (given by the coefficient of variation, CV), induced by the inherent natural variability of the variables and from mapping were segregated. Based on these stationary results we define a simple empirical rainfall-recharge model. We consider that spatiotemporal variability of rainfall and temperature are the most important climatic feature and variables influencing potential aquifer recharge in natural regime. Changes in these variables can be important in the assessment of future potential impacts of climatic scenarios over spatiotemporal renewable groundwater resource. For instance, if temperature increases, actual evapotranspitration (EA) will increases reducing the available water for others groundwater balance components, including the recharge. For this reason, instead of defining an infiltration rate coefficient that relates precipitation (P) and recharge we propose to define a transformation function that allows estimating the spatial

  6. Modelling regional land change scenarios to assess land abandonment and reforestation dynamics in the Pyrenees (France)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vacquie, Laure; Houet, Thomas; Sohl, Terry L.; Reker, Ryan; Sayler, Kristi L.

    2015-01-01

    Over the last decades and centuries, European mountain landscapes have experienced substantial transformations. Natural and anthropogenic LULC changes (land use and land cover changes), especially agro-pastoral activities, have directly influenced the spatial organization and composition of European mountain landscapes. For the past sixty years, natural reforestation has been occurring due to a decline in both agricultural production activities and rural population. Stakeholders, to better anticipate future changes, need spatially and temporally explicit models to identify areas at risk of land change and possible abandonment. This paper presents an integrated approach combining forecasting scenarios and a LULC changes simulation model to assess where LULC changes may occur in the Pyrenees Mountains, based on historical LULC trends and a range of future socio-economic drivers. The proposed methodology considers local specificities of the Pyrenean valleys, sub-regional climate and topographical properties, and regional economic policies. Results indicate that some regions are projected to face strong abandonment, regardless of the scenario conditions. Overall, high rates of change are associated with administrative regions where land productivity is highly dependent on socio-economic drivers and climatic and environmental conditions limit intensive (agricultural and/or pastoral) production and profitability. The combination of the results for the four scenarios allows assessments of where encroachment (e.g. colonization by shrublands) and reforestation are the most probable. This assessment intends to provide insight into the potential future development of the Pyrenees to help identify areas that are the most sensitive to change and to guide decision makers to help their management decisions.

  7. Deep Neural Networks for No-Reference and Full-Reference Image Quality Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bosse, Sebastian; Maniry, Dominique; Muller, Klaus-Robert; Wiegand, Thomas; Samek, Wojciech

    2018-01-01

    We present a deep neural network-based approach to image quality assessment (IQA). The network is trained end-to-end and comprises ten convolutional layers and five pooling layers for feature extraction, and two fully connected layers for regression, which makes it significantly deeper than related IQA models. Unique features of the proposed architecture are that: 1) with slight adaptations it can be used in a no-reference (NR) as well as in a full-reference (FR) IQA setting and 2) it allows for joint learning of local quality and local weights, i.e., relative importance of local quality to the global quality estimate, in an unified framework. Our approach is purely data-driven and does not rely on hand-crafted features or other types of prior domain knowledge about the human visual system or image statistics. We evaluate the proposed approach on the LIVE, CISQ, and TID2013 databases as well as the LIVE In the wild image quality challenge database and show superior performance to state-of-the-art NR and FR IQA methods. Finally, cross-database evaluation shows a high ability to generalize between different databases, indicating a high robustness of the learned features.

  8. Particle Reduction Strategies - PAREST. Emissions in PAREST reference scenario 2005-2020; Strategien zur Verminderung der Feinstaubbelastung - PAREST. Emissionen im PAREST-Referenzszenario 2005-2020

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Joerss, Wolfram [Institut fuer Zukunftsstudien und Technologiebewertung gGmbH (IZT), Berlin (Germany); Kugler, Ulrike; Theloke, Jochen [Stuttgart Univ. (Germany). Inst. fuer Energiewirtschaft und Rationelle Energieanwendung (IER)

    2013-06-15

    In the research project PAREST emission scenarios to 2020 for particulate matter (PM{sub 10} und PM{sub 2,5}), and aerosol precursors SO{sub 2}, NO{sub x}, NH{sub 3} and NMVOC were prepared for Germany and Europe, mitigation measures evaluated and the results used to model the PM pollution load for Germany. In this sub-report of PAREST Germany's aggregate emissions totals of the considered pollutants are presented in the reference scenario. [German] Im Forschungsvorhaben PAREST wurden Emissionsszenarien bis 2020 fuer Feinstaub (PM{sub 10} und PM{sub 2,5}) und die Aerosol-Vorlaeufersubstanzen SO{sub 2}, NO{sub x}, NH{sub 3} und NMVOC fuer Deutschland und Europa erstellt, Minderungsmassnahmen evaluiert und daraus die PM-Immissionsbelastung fuer Deutschland modelliert. In diesem Teilbericht zu PAREST werden die deutschlandweit aggregierten Emissionssummen der betrachteten Schadstoffe im Referenzszenario vorgestellt.

  9. Scenario-neutral Food Security Risk Assessment: A livestock Heat Stress Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Broman, D.; Rajagopalan, B.; Hopson, T. M.

    2015-12-01

    Food security risk assessments can provide decision-makers with actionable information to identify critical system limitations, and alternatives to mitigate the impacts of future conditions. The majority of current risk assessments have been scenario-led and results are limited by the scenarios - selected future states of the world's climate system and socioeconomic factors. A generic scenario-neutral framework for food security risk assessments is presented here that uses plausible states of the world without initially assigning likelihoods. Measures of system vulnerabilities are identified and system risk is assessed for these states. This framework has benefited greatly by research in the water and natural resource fields to adapt their planning to provide better risk assessments. To illustrate the utility of this framework we develop a case study using livestock heat stress risk within the pastoral system of West Africa. Heat stress can have a major impact not only on livestock owners, but on the greater food production system, decreasing livestock growth, milk production, and reproduction, and in severe cases, death. A heat stress index calculated from daily weather is used as a vulnerability measure and is computed from historic daily weather data at several locations in the study region. To generate plausible states, a stochastic weather generator is developed to generate synthetic weather sequences at each location, consistent with the seasonal climate. A spatial model of monthly and seasonal heat stress provide projections of current and future livestock heat stress measures across the study region, and can incorporate in seasonal climate and other external covariates. These models, when linked with empirical thresholds of heat stress risk for specific breeds offer decision-makers with actionable information for use in near-term warning systems as well as for future planning. Future assessment can indicate under which states livestock are at greatest risk

  10. The role of the uncertainty in assessing future scenarios of water shortage in alluvial aquifers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romano, Emanuele; Camici, Stefania; Brocca, Luca; Moramarco, Tommaso; Guyennon, Nicolas; Preziosi, Elisabetta

    2015-04-01

    There are many evidences that the combined effects of variations in precipitation and temperature due to climate change can result in a significant change of the recharge to groundwater at different time scales. A possible reduction of effective infiltration can result in a significant decrease, temporary or permanent, of the availability of the resource and, consequently, the sustainable pumping rate should be reassessed. In addition to this, one should also consider the so called indirect impacts of climate change, resulting from human intervention (e.g. augmentation of abstractions) which are feared to be even more important than the direct ones in the medium term: thus, a possible increase of episodes of shortage (i.e. the inability of the groundwater system to completely supply the water demand) can result both from change in the climate forcing and change in the demand. In order to assess future scenarios of water shortage a modelling chain is often used. It includes: 1) the use of General Circulation Models to estimate changes in temperature and precipitation; 2) downscaling procedures to match modeling scenarios to the observed meteorological time series; 3) soil-atmosphere modelling to estimate the time variation of the recharge to the aquifer; 4) groundwater flow models to simulate the water budget and piezometric head evolution; 5) future scenarios of groundwater quantitative status that include scenarios of demand variation. It is well known that each of these processing steps is affected by an intrinsic uncertainty that propagates through the whole chain leading to a final uncertainty on the piezometric head scenarios. The estimate of such an uncertainty is a key point for a correct management of groundwater resources, in case of water shortage due to prolonged droughts as well as for planning purposes. This study analyzes the uncertainty of the processing chain from GCM scenarios to its impact on an alluvial aquifer in terms of exploitation

  11. New Approaches to Transport Project Assessment: Reference Scenario Forecasting and Quantitative Risk Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang

    2010-01-01

    however has proved that the point estimates derived from such analyses are embedded with a large degree of uncertainty. Thus, a new scheme was proposed in terms of applying quantitative risk analysis (QRA) and Monte Carlo simulation in order to represent the uncertainties within the cost-benefit analysis......This presentation sets out a new methodology for examining the uncertainties relating to transport decision making based on infrastructure appraisals. Traditional transport infrastructure projects are based upon cost-benefit analyses in order to appraise the projects feasibility. Recent research...

  12. Life cycle assessment of municipal solid waste management scenarios on the small island of Mauritius.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajcoomar, Avinash; Ramjeawon, Toolseeram

    2017-03-01

    The aim of this study was to use the life cycle assessment tool to assess, from an environmental point of view, the different possible municipal solid waste (MSW) management scenarios for the island of Mauritius. The scenarios include landfilling with energy recovery (S1), incineration with energy recovery (S2), composting, incineration and landfilling (S3) and finally composting, recycling, incineration and landfilling (S4). The MSW generated in 2010 was selected as the functional unit. Foreground data were collected through surveys and literature. Background data were obtained from ecoinvent data in SimaPro 8 libraries. The scenarios were compared both through the CML-IA baseline-midpoint method and the ReCiPe end-point method. From the midpoint method, the results obtained indicates that landfilling (S1) has the greatest impact in all the analyzed impact categories except ozone layer depletion and human toxicity, while incineration (S2) has the least impact on almost all the analyzed damage categories except in global warming potential and human toxicity. The collection and transportation of waste has a significant impact on the environment. From the end-point method, S4 reduces the damage impact categories on Human Health, Ecosystems and Resources due to the recycling process. S3 is not favorable due to the impact caused by the composting process. However, it is also very important to emphasize that for incineration, the best available technology with energy recovery shall be considered. It is recommended that S2 and S4 are considered for strategic planning.

  13. An empirical, hierarchical typology of tree species assemblages for assessing forest dynamics under global change scenarios.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jennifer K Costanza

    Full Text Available The composition of tree species occurring in a forest is important and can be affected by global change drivers such as climate change. To inform assessment and projection of global change impacts at broad extents, we used hierarchical cluster analysis and over 120,000 recent forest inventory plots to empirically define forest tree assemblages across the U.S., and identified the indicator and dominant species associated with each. Cluster typologies in two levels of a hierarchy of forest assemblages, with 29 and 147 groups respectively, were supported by diagnostic criteria. Groups in these two levels of the hierarchy were labeled based on the top indicator species in each, and ranged widely in size. For example, in the 29-cluster typology, the sugar maple-red maple assemblage contained the largest number of plots (30,068, while the butternut-sweet birch and sourwood-scarlet oak assemblages were both smallest (6 plots each. We provide a case-study demonstration of the utility of the typology for informing forest climate change impact assessment. For five assemblages in the 29-cluster typology, we used existing projections of changes in importance value (IV for the dominant species under one low and one high climate change scenario to assess impacts to the assemblages. Results ranged widely for each scenario by the end of the century, with each showing an average decrease in IV for dominant species in some assemblages, including the balsam fir-quaking aspen assemblage, and an average increase for others, like the green ash-American elm assemblage. Future work should assess adaptive capacity of these forest assemblages and investigate local population- and community-level dynamics in places where dominant species may be impacted. This typology will be ideal for monitoring, assessing, and projecting changes to forest communities within the emerging framework of macrosystems ecology, which emphasizes hierarchies and broad extents.

  14. An empirical, hierarchical typology of tree species assemblages for assessing forest dynamics under global change scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costanza, Jennifer K; Coulston, John W; Wear, David N

    2017-01-01

    The composition of tree species occurring in a forest is important and can be affected by global change drivers such as climate change. To inform assessment and projection of global change impacts at broad extents, we used hierarchical cluster analysis and over 120,000 recent forest inventory plots to empirically define forest tree assemblages across the U.S., and identified the indicator and dominant species associated with each. Cluster typologies in two levels of a hierarchy of forest assemblages, with 29 and 147 groups respectively, were supported by diagnostic criteria. Groups in these two levels of the hierarchy were labeled based on the top indicator species in each, and ranged widely in size. For example, in the 29-cluster typology, the sugar maple-red maple assemblage contained the largest number of plots (30,068), while the butternut-sweet birch and sourwood-scarlet oak assemblages were both smallest (6 plots each). We provide a case-study demonstration of the utility of the typology for informing forest climate change impact assessment. For five assemblages in the 29-cluster typology, we used existing projections of changes in importance value (IV) for the dominant species under one low and one high climate change scenario to assess impacts to the assemblages. Results ranged widely for each scenario by the end of the century, with each showing an average decrease in IV for dominant species in some assemblages, including the balsam fir-quaking aspen assemblage, and an average increase for others, like the green ash-American elm assemblage. Future work should assess adaptive capacity of these forest assemblages and investigate local population- and community-level dynamics in places where dominant species may be impacted. This typology will be ideal for monitoring, assessing, and projecting changes to forest communities within the emerging framework of macrosystems ecology, which emphasizes hierarchies and broad extents.

  15. Assessing the Geographic Expression of Urban Sustainability: A Scenario Based Approach Incorporating Spatial Multicriteria Decision Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James K. Lein

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Urban sustainability involves a re-examination of urban development including environmental, social and economic policies and practices that acknowledge the role of cities in global environmental change. However, sustainability remains a broadly defined concept that has been applied to mean everything from environmental protection, social cohesion, economic growth, neighborhood design, alternative energy, and green building design. To guide sustainability initiatives and assess progress toward more sustainable development patterns this construct requires a means to place this concept into a decision-centric context where change can be evaluated and the exploitation of resources, the direction of investment, the orientation of technological development, and institutional programs can be made more consistent with future as well as present needs. In this study the problem of sustainability assessment was examined and a method that couples scenario analysis with spatial multicriteria decision analysis was introduced. The integration of a spatial multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA model for sustainable development with scenario planning resulted in an interpretation of sustainability that is more appropriate for local conditions and useful when exploring sustainability’s semantic uncertainties, particularly those alternate perspectives that influence future environments.

  16. No-reference quality assessment based on visual perception

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Junshan; Yang, Yawei; Hu, Shuangyan; Zhang, Jiao

    2014-11-01

    The visual quality assessment of images/videos is an ongoing hot research topic, which has become more and more important for numerous image and video processing applications with the rapid development of digital imaging and communication technologies. The goal of image quality assessment (IQA) algorithms is to automatically assess the quality of images/videos in agreement with human quality judgments. Up to now, two kinds of models have been used for IQA, namely full-reference (FR) and no-reference (NR) models. For FR models, IQA algorithms interpret image quality as fidelity or similarity with a perfect image in some perceptual space. However, the reference image is not available in many practical applications, and a NR IQA approach is desired. Considering natural vision as optimized by the millions of years of evolutionary pressure, many methods attempt to achieve consistency in quality prediction by modeling salient physiological and psychological features of the human visual system (HVS). To reach this goal, researchers try to simulate HVS with image sparsity coding and supervised machine learning, which are two main features of HVS. A typical HVS captures the scenes by sparsity coding, and uses experienced knowledge to apperceive objects. In this paper, we propose a novel IQA approach based on visual perception. Firstly, a standard model of HVS is studied and analyzed, and the sparse representation of image is accomplished with the model; and then, the mapping correlation between sparse codes and subjective quality scores is trained with the regression technique of least squaresupport vector machine (LS-SVM), which gains the regressor that can predict the image quality; the visual metric of image is predicted with the trained regressor at last. We validate the performance of proposed approach on Laboratory for Image and Video Engineering (LIVE) database, the specific contents of the type of distortions present in the database are: 227 images of JPEG2000, 233

  17. Loose and Tight GNSS/INS Integrations: Comparison of Performance Assessed in Real Urban Scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Falco, Gianluca; Pini, Marco; Marucco, Gianluca

    2017-01-29

    Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSSs) remain the principal mean of positioning in many applications and systems, but in several types of environment, the performance of standalone receivers is degraded. Although many works show the benefits of the integration between GNSS and Inertial Navigation Systems (INSs), tightly-coupled architectures are mainly implemented in professional devices and are based on high-grade Inertial Measurement Units (IMUs). This paper investigates the performance improvements enabled by the tight integration, using low-cost sensors and a mass-market GNSS receiver. Performance is assessed through a series of tests carried out in real urban scenarios and is compared against commercial modules, operating in standalone mode or featuring loosely-coupled integrations. The paper describes the developed tight-integration algorithms with a terse mathematical model and assesses their efficacy from a practical perspective.

  18. Life cycle assessment and residue leaching: The importance of parameter, scenario and leaching data selection

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Allegrini, Elisa; Butera, Stefania; Kosson, D.S.

    2015-01-01

    , due to the potential leaching of toxic substances. In waste LCA studies where residue utilisation is included, leaching has generally been neglected. In this study, municipal solid waste incineration bottom ash (MSWI BA) was used as a case study into three LCA scenarios having different system...... boundaries. The importance of data quality and parameter selection in the overall LCA results was evaluated, and an innovative method to assess metal transport into the environment was applied, in order to determine emissions to the soil and water compartments for use in an LCA. It was found that toxic......Residues from industrial processes and waste management systems (WMSs) have been increasingly reutilised, leading to landfilling rate reductions and the optimisation of mineral resource utilisation in society. Life cycle assessment (LCA) is a holistic methodology allowing for the analysis...

  19. Final report: Task 4a.2 20% wind scenario assessment of electric grid operational features

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Toole, Gasper L. [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2009-01-01

    Wind integration modeling in electricity generation capacity expansion models is important in that these models are often used to inform political or managerial decisions. Poor representation of wind technology leads to under-estimation of wind's contribution to future energy scenarios which may hamper growth of the industry. The NREL's Wind Energy Deployment System (WinDS) model provides the most detailed representation of geographically disperse renewable resources and the optimization of transmission expansion to access these resources. Because WinDS was selected as the primary modeling tool for the 20% Wind Energy by 2030 study, it is the ideal tool for supplemental studies of the transmission expansion results. However, as the wind industry grows and knowledge related to the wind resource and integration of wind energy into the electric system develops, the WinDS model must be continually improved through additional data and innovative algorithms to capture the primary effects of variable wind generation. The detailed representation of wind technology in the WinDS model can be used to provide improvements to the simplified representation of wind technology in other capacity expansion models. This task did not employ the WinDS model, but builds from it and its results. Task 4a.2 provides an assessment of the electric grid operational features of the 20% Wind scenario and was conducted using power flow models accepted by the utility industry. Tasks 2 provides information regarding the physical flow of electricity on the electric grid which is a critical aspect of infrastructure expansion scenarios. Expanding transmission infrastructure to access remote wind resource in a physically realizable way is essential to achieving 20% wind energy by 2030.

  20. Effect of practice management softwares among physicians of developing countries with special reference to Indian scenario by Mixed Method Technique

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sanjeev Davey

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Currently, many cheaper "practice management software" (PMS are available in developing countries including India; despite their availability and benefits, its penetration and usage vary from low to moderate level, justifying the importance of this study area. Materials and Methods : First preferred reporting items for systematic-review and meta-analysis (2009 guidelines were considered; followed by an extensive systematic-review of available studies in literature related to developing countries, on key search term from main abstracting databases: PubMed, EMBASE, EBSCO, BIO-MED Central, Cochrane Library, world CAT-library till 15 June 2014; where any kind of article whether published or unpublished, in any sort or form or any language indicating the software usage were included. Thereafter, meta-analysis on Indian studies revealing the magnitude of usage in Indian scenario by Open Meta-(analyst software using binary random effects (REs model was done. Studies from developed countries were excluded in our study. Results : Of 57 studies included in a systematic review from developing countries, only 4 Indian studies were found eligible for meta-analysis. RE model revealed although not-significant results (total participants = 243,526; range: 100-226,228, overall odds ratio = 2.85, 95% confidence interval = P < 0.05 and tests for heterogeneity: Q [df = 3] = 0.8 Het. P = 0.85. The overall magnitude of usage of PMS on Indian physicians practice was however found between 10% and 45%. Conclusion : Although variable and nonsignificant effect of usage of PM software on practice of physicians in developing countries like India was found; there is a need to recognize the hidden potential of this system. Hence, more in-depth research in future needs to be done, in order to find a real impact of this system.

  1. Reference material systems: a sourcebook for material assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bhagat, N. (ed.)

    1976-12-01

    A reference set of data related to material systems and a framework for carrying out the material technologies assessment are presented. While the bulk of renewables have been considered in this report, the nonrenewable materials dealt with here include structural materials only, such as steel, aluminum, cement and concrete, and bricks. The complete data set is supposed to include material flows, energy requirements, capital and labor inputs, and environmental effects for each process that a resource must go through to become a useful material for an end use. Although effort has been made to obtain as much information as possible, considerable gaps in data, apparent throughout this report, could not be avoided. A new material technology can be evaluated by substituting that technology for appropriate elements of the reference materials system and calculating the net change in material resource, energy, capital and labor requirements, and environmental impacts. This combination of information thus serves as a means of evaluating the potential benefits to be gained by research in various material technologies.

  2. Assessing cerebrovascular reactivity abnormality by comparison to a reference atlas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sobczyk, Olivia; Battisti-Charbonney, Anne; Poublanc, Julien; Crawley, Adrian P; Sam, Kevin; Fierstra, Jorn; Mandell, Daniel M; Mikulis, David J; Duffin, James; Fisher, Joseph A

    2015-02-01

    Attribution of vascular pathophysiology to reductions in cerebrovascular reactivity (CVR) is confounded by subjective assessment and the normal variation between anatomic regions. This study aimed to develop an objective scoring assessment of abnormality. CVR was measured as the ratio of the blood-oxygen-level-dependent magnetic resonance signal response divided by an increase in CO2, standardized to eliminate variability. A reference normal atlas was generated by coregistering the CVR maps from 46 healthy subjects into a standard space and calculating the mean and standard deviation (s.d.) of CVR for each voxel. Example CVR studies from 10 patients with cerebral vasculopathy were assessed for abnormality, by normalizing each patient's CVR to the same standard space as the atlas, and assigning a z-score to each voxel relative to the mean and s.d. of the corresponding atlas voxel. Z-scores were color coded and superimposed on their anatomic scans to form CVR z-maps. We found the CVR z-maps provided an objective evaluation of abnormality, enhancing our appreciation of the extent and distribution of pathophysiology compared with CVR maps alone. We concluded that CVR z-maps provide an objective, improved form of evaluation for comparisons of voxel-specific CVR between subjects, and across tests sites.

  3. Self-assessment in cancer patients referred to palliative care

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Strömgren, Annette S; Goldschmidt, Dorthe; Groenvold, Mogens

    2002-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Research in palliative care is considered difficult due to the poor health of patients. However, patient-provided data are essential for a thorough description of patient symptomatology and for the evaluation of care. METHODS: The authors examined the feasibility of a questionnaire......-based study using the European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer quality-of-life instrument EORTC QLQ-C30, the Edmonton Symptom Assessment System (ESAS), and the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS) in cancer patients who were receiving palliative care. This report describes...... the symptomatology of participating patients and examines differences in symptomatology between patients in three palliative care functions: inpatient, outpatient, and palliative home care. RESULTS: Of 267 eligible patients who were referred to a department of palliative medicine, initial self...

  4. Reference-free automatic quality assessment of tracheoesophageal speech.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Andy; Falk, Tiago H; Chan, Wai-Yip; Parsa, Vijay; Doyle, Philip

    2009-01-01

    Evaluation of the quality of tracheoesophageal (TE) speech using machines instead of human experts can enhance the voice rehabilitation process for patients who have undergone total laryngectomy and voice restoration. Towards the goal of devising a reference-free TE speech quality estimation algorithm, we investigate the efficacy of speech signal features that are used in standard telephone-speech quality assessment algorithms, in conjunction with a recently introduced speech modulation spectrum measure. Tests performed on two TE speech databases demonstrate that the modulation spectral measure and a subset of features in the standard ITU-T P.563 algorithm estimate TE speech quality with better correlation (up to 0.9) than previously proposed features.

  5. Climate change impact and adaptation assessment on food consumption utilizing a new scenario framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hasegawa, Tomoko; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Shin, Yonghee; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Masui, Toshihiko; Tanaka, Akemi

    2014-01-01

    We assessed the impacts of climate change and agricultural autonomous adaptation measures (changes in crop variety and planting dates) on food consumption and risk of hunger considering uncertainties in socioeconomic and climate conditions by using a new scenario framework. We combined a global computable general equilibrium model and a crop model (M-GAEZ), and estimated the impacts through 2050 based on future assumptions of socioeconomic and climate conditions. We used three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways as future population and gross domestic products, four Representative Concentration Pathways as a greenhouse gas emissions constraint, and eight General Circulation Models to estimate climate conditions. We found that (i) the adaptation measures are expected to significantly lower the risk of hunger resulting from climate change under various socioeconomic and climate conditions. (ii) population and economic development had a greater impact than climate conditions for risk of hunger at least throughout 2050, but climate change was projected to have notable impacts, even in the strong emission mitigation scenarios. (iii) The impact on hunger risk varied across regions because levels of calorie intake, climate change impacts and land scarcity varied by region.

  6. Dynamic EROI Assessment of the IPCC 21st Century Electricity Production Scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charles Neumeyer

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The Energy Return on Investment (EROI is an important measure of the energy gain of an electrical power generating facility that is typically evaluated based on the life cycle energy balance of a single facility. The EROI concept can be extended to cover a collection of facilities that comprise a complete power system and used to assess the expansion and evolution of a power system as it transitions from one portfolio mix of technologies to another over time. In this study we develop a dynamic EROI model that simulates the evolution of a power system and we perform an EROI simulation of one of the electricity production scenarios developed under the auspices of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC covering the global supply of electricity in the 21st century. Our analytic tool provides the means for evaluation of dynamic EROI based on arbitrary time-dependent demand scenarios by modeling the required expansion of power generation, including the plowback needed for new construction and to replace facilities as they are retired. The results provide insight into the level of installed and delivered power, above and beyond basic consumer demand, that is required to support construction during expansion, as well as the supplementary power that may be required if plowback constraints are imposed. In addition, sensitivity to EROI parameters, and the impact of energy storage efficiency are addressed.

  7. Development of sea level rise scenarios for climate change assessments of the Mekong Delta, Vietnam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doyle, Thomas W.; Day, Richard H.; Michot, Thomas C.

    2010-01-01

    Rising sea level poses critical ecological and economical consequences for the low-lying megadeltas of the world where dependent populations and agriculture are at risk. The Mekong Delta of Vietnam is one of many deltas that are especially vulnerable because much of the land surface is below mean sea level and because there is a lack of coastal barrier protection. Food security related to rice and shrimp farming in the Mekong Delta is currently under threat from saltwater intrusion, relative sea level rise, and storm surge potential. Understanding the degree of potential change in sea level under climate change is needed to undertake regional assessments of potential impacts and to formulate adaptation strategies. This report provides constructed time series of potential sea level rise scenarios for the Mekong Delta region by incorporating (1) aspects of observed intra- and inter-annual sea level variability from tide records and (2) projected estimates for different rates of regional subsidence and accelerated eustacy through the year 2100 corresponding with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate models and emission scenarios.

  8. From Seismic Scenarios to Earthquake Risk Assessment: A Case Study for Iquique, Chile.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aguirre, P.; Fortuno, C.; Martin, J. C. D. L. L.; Vasquez, J.

    2015-12-01

    Iquique is a strategic city and economic center in northern Chile, and is located in a large seismic gap where a megathrust earthquake and tsunami is expected. Although it was hit by a Mw 8.2 earthquake on April 1st 2014, which caused moderate damage, geophysical evidence still suggests that there is potential for a larger event, so a thorough risk assessment is key to understand the physical, social, and economic effects of such potential event, and devise appropriate mitigation plans. Hence, Iquique has been selected as a prime study case for the implementation of a risk assessment platform in Chile. Our study integrates research on three main elements of risk calculations: hazard evaluation, exposure model, and physical vulnerabilities. To characterize the hazard field, a set of synthetic seismic scenarios have been developed based on plate interlocking and the residual slip potential that results from subtracting the slip occurred during the April 1st 2014 rupture fault mechanism, obtained using InSAR+GPS inversion. Additional scenarios were developed based of the fault rupture model of the Maule 2010 Mw 8.8 earthquake and on the local plate locking models in northern Chile. These rupture models define a collection of possible realizations of earthquake geometries parameterized in terms of critical variables like slip magnitude, rise time, mean propagation velocity, directivity, and other, which are propagated to obtain a hazard map for Iquique (e.g. PGA, PGV, PDG). Furthermore, a large body of public and local data was used to construct a detailed exposure model for Iquique, including aggregated building count, demographics, essential facilities, and lifelines. This model together with the PGA maps for the April 1st 2014 earthquake are used to calibrate HAZUS outputs against observed damage, and adjust the fragility curves of physical systems according to more detailed analyses of typical Chilean building types and their structural properties, plus historical

  9. Use case scenarios - space based receiver assessment : GPS Adjacent Band Compatibility Assessment Workshop VI.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-03-30

    This workshop presentation discusses space based receiver applications, NASA developed receivers, the TriG receiver, on-orbit assessment parameters, the TriG GNSS-RO antenna gain pattern, the GNSS-RO antenna beam Earth grazing coverage area, assessme...

  10. Knowledge Brokerage for Impact Assessment of Land Use Scenarios in Inner Mongolia, China: Extending and Testing the FoPIA Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hannes J. König

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available While land serves numerous societal functions and contributes to sustainable development, it is often unclear how these functions are affected by political decisions and common drivers of land use change, such as economic development, climate change and demographic change. This study evaluates alternative land use scenarios in reference to a rural region of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region (China, where various processes and decisions have historically triggered unsustainable development. The scientifically tested “Framework for Participatory Impact Assessment (FoPIA” method is developed further to address specific features of the case study region, and its function as a knowledge-brokerage (KB tool is evaluated. Three scenarios are developed and analysed in expert workshops. “Land intensification: Agriculture” and “Land intensification: Mining” scenarios are found to have mainly negative environmental and social effects and positive economic impacts, while the “Environmental conservation and tourism” scenario is found to more positively affect all three sustainability dimensions. Assessments of methodological phases show that the FoPIA primarily serves to establish the KB process and that the framework particularly benefits from early examinations of scientific results by policy makers.

  11. Handling Qualities Evaluations of Low Complexity Model Reference Adaptive Controllers for Reduced Pitch and Roll Damping Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanson, Curt; Schaefer, Jacob; Burken, John J.; Johnson, Marcus; Nguyen, Nhan

    2011-01-01

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) researchers have conducted a series of flight experiments designed to study the effects of varying levels of adaptive controller complexity on the performance and handling qualities of an aircraft under various simulated failure or damage conditions. A baseline, nonlinear dynamic inversion controller was augmented with three variations of a model reference adaptive control design. The simplest design consisted of a single adaptive parameter in each of the pitch and roll axes computed using a basic gradient-based update law. A second design was built upon the first by increasing the complexity of the update law. The third and most complex design added an additional adaptive parameter to each axis. Flight tests were conducted using NASA s Full-scale Advanced Systems Testbed, a highly modified F-18 aircraft that contains a research flight control system capable of housing advanced flight controls experiments. Each controller was evaluated against a suite of simulated failures and damage ranging from destabilization of the pitch and roll axes to significant coupling between the axes. Two pilots evaluated the three adaptive controllers as well as the non-adaptive baseline controller in a variety of dynamic maneuvers and precision flying tasks designed to uncover potential deficiencies in the handling qualities of the aircraft, and adverse interactions between the pilot and the adaptive controllers. The work was completed as part of the Integrated Resilient Aircraft Control Project under NASA s Aviation Safety Program.

  12. AN ASSESSMENT OF CITIZEN CONTRIBUTED GROUND REFERENCE DATA FOR LAND COVER MAP ACCURACY ASSESSMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. M. Foody

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available It is now widely accepted that an accuracy assessment should be part of a thematic mapping programme. Authoritative good or best practices for accuracy assessment have been defined but are often impractical to implement. Key reasons for this situation are linked to the ground reference data used in the accuracy assessment. Typically, it is a challenge to acquire a large sample of high quality reference cases in accordance to desired sampling designs specified as conforming to good practice and the data collected are normally to some degree imperfect limiting their value to an accuracy assessment which implicitly assumes the use of a gold standard reference. Citizen sensors have great potential to aid aspects of accuracy assessment. In particular, they may be able to act as a source of ground reference data that may, for example, reduce sample size problems but concerns with data quality remain. The relative strengths and limitations of citizen contributed data for accuracy assessment are reviewed in the context of the authoritative good practices defined for studies of land cover by remote sensing. The article will highlight some of the ways that citizen contributed data have been used in accuracy assessment as well as some of the problems that require further attention, and indicate some of the potential ways forward in the future.

  13. Generation of Referring Expressions: Assessing the Incremental Algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Deemter, Kees; Gatt, Albert; van der Sluis, Ielka; Power, Richard

    2012-01-01

    A substantial amount of recent work in natural language generation has focused on the generation of "one-shot" referring expressions whose only aim is to identify a target referent. Dale and Reiter's Incremental Algorithm (IA) is often thought to be the best algorithm for maximizing the similarity to referring expressions produced by people. We…

  14. Proposals for enhanced health risk assessment and stratification in an integrated care scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dueñas-Espín, Ivan; Vela, Emili; Pauws, Steffen; Bescos, Cristina; Cano, Isaac; Cleries, Montserrat; Contel, Joan Carles; de Manuel Keenoy, Esteban; Garcia-Aymerich, Judith; Gomez-Cabrero, David; Kaye, Rachelle; Lahr, Maarten M H; Lluch-Ariet, Magí; Moharra, Montserrat; Monterde, David; Mora, Joana; Nalin, Marco; Pavlickova, Andrea; Piera, Jordi; Ponce, Sara; Santaeugenia, Sebastià; Schonenberg, Helen; Störk, Stefan; Tegner, Jesper; Velickovski, Filip; Westerteicher, Christoph; Roca, Josep

    2016-04-15

    Population-based health risk assessment and stratification are considered highly relevant for large-scale implementation of integrated care by facilitating services design and case identification. The principal objective of the study was to analyse five health-risk assessment strategies and health indicators used in the five regions participating in the Advancing Care Coordination and Telehealth Deployment (ACT) programme (http://www.act-programme.eu). The second purpose was to elaborate on strategies toward enhanced health risk predictive modelling in the clinical scenario. The five ACT regions: Scotland (UK), Basque Country (ES), Catalonia (ES), Lombardy (I) and Groningen (NL). Responsible teams for regional data management in the five ACT regions. We characterised and compared risk assessment strategies among ACT regions by analysing operational health risk predictive modelling tools for population-based stratification, as well as available health indicators at regional level. The analysis of the risk assessment tool deployed in Catalonia in 2015 (GMAs, Adjusted Morbidity Groups) was used as a basis to propose how population-based analytics could contribute to clinical risk prediction. There was consensus on the need for a population health approach to generate health risk predictive modelling. However, this strategy was fully in place only in two ACT regions: Basque Country and Catalonia. We found marked differences among regions in health risk predictive modelling tools and health indicators, and identified key factors constraining their comparability. The research proposes means to overcome current limitations and the use of population-based health risk prediction for enhanced clinical risk assessment. The results indicate the need for further efforts to improve both comparability and flexibility of current population-based health risk predictive modelling approaches. Applicability and impact of the proposals for enhanced clinical risk assessment require

  15. Monitoring and Forecasting Reference Evapotranspiration for Food Security Assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shukla, S.; Hobbins, M.; McEvoy, D.; Husak, G. J.; Dewes, C.; McNally, A.; Huntington, J. L.; Funk, C. C.; Verdin, J. P.

    2016-12-01

    Reference evapotranspiration (Ref ET; driven by temperature, humidity, wind speed, and solar radiation) and precipitation are the two most important climatic drivers of seasonal crop yields, which are directly associated with food security in several parts of the globe. In the last decade or so, significant strides have been made by the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) team and collaborators, towards improving precipitation monitoring. However, efforts to improve Ref ET monitoring and forecasting have thus far lagged by comparison. This presentation describes ongoing activities of the FEWS NET team and collaborators towards the development and implementation of a near-real time Ref ET monitoring and forecasting system, focusing primarily on the food-insecure FEWS NET countries. Due to a lack of in situ observations of meteorological forcings, the Ref ET monitoring dataset, which is calculated using the Penman-Monteith formulation of the ASCE Standardized Reference ET, uses NASA's MERRA-2 atmospheric forcings and is spatially downscaled using a finer resolution climatology of the International Water Management Institute global PET dataset. Ref ET forecasts (up to 6 months lead time) are calculated using seasonal climate forecasts from NCEP's CFSv2 and NASA's GEOS-5 models. Long-term (since early 1980s through 2015) evaluation of Ref ET monitoring and forecast datasets and the approach to provide operational updates of both datasets in near-real time, are summarized in this presentation. As a case study, the influence of improved Ref ET monitoring and Ref ET forecasts on crop yield estimates and food security outlooks in East Africa is also examined using the Water Requirement Satisfaction Index model. In summary, this presentation highlights the importance of monitoring and forecasting Ref ET for food security assessments and early warning.

  16. Assessment of Alternative Scenarios for CO2 Reduction Potential in the Residential Building Sector

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Young-Sun Jeong

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The South Korean government announced its goals of reducing the country’s CO2 emissions by up to 30% below the business as usual (BAU projections by 2020 in 2009 and 37% below BAU projections by 2030 in 2015. This paper explores the potential energy savings and reduction in CO2 emissions offered by residential building energy efficiency policies and plans in South Korea. The current and future energy consumption and CO2 emissions in the residential building were estimated using an energy–environment model from 2010 to 2030. The business as usual scenario is based on the energy consumption characteristic of residential buildings using the trends related to socio-economic prospects and the number of dwellings. The alternative scenarios took into account energy efficiency for new residential buildings (scenario I, refurbishment of existing residential buildings (scenario II, use of highly efficient boilers (scenario III, and use of a solar thermal energy system (scenario IV. The results show that energy consumption in the residential building sector will increase by 33% between 2007 and 2030 in the BAU scenario. Maximum reduction in CO2 emissions in the residential building sector of South Korea was observed by 2030 in scenario I. In each alternative scenario analysis, CO2 emissions were 12.9% lower than in the business as usual scenario by the year 2030.

  17. Statistical downscaling of the French Mediterranean climate: assessment for present and projection in an anthropogenic scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Lavaysse

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available The Mediterranean basin is a particularly vulnerable region to climate change, featuring a sharply contrasted climate between the North and South and governed by a semi-enclosed sea with pronounced surrounding topography covering parts of the Europe, Africa and Asia regions. The physiographic specificities contribute to produce mesoscale atmospheric features that can evolve to high-impact weather systems such as heavy precipitation, wind storms, heat waves and droughts. The evolution of these meteorological extremes in the context of global warming is still an open question, partly because of the large uncertainty associated with existing estimates produced by global climate models (GCM with coarse horizontal resolution (~200 km. Downscaling climatic information at a local scale is, thus, needed to improve the climate extreme prediction and to provide relevant information for vulnerability and adaptation studies. In this study, we investigate wind, temperature and precipitation distributions for past recent climate and future scenarios at eight meteorological stations in the French Mediterranean region using one statistical downscaling model, referred as the "Cumulative Distribution Function transform" (CDF-t approach. A thorough analysis of the uncertainty associated with statistical downscaling and bi-linear interpolation of large-scale wind speed, temperature and rainfall from reanalyses (ERA-40 and three GCM historical simulations, has been conducted and quantified in terms of Kolmogorov-Smirnov scores. CDF-t produces a more accurate and reliable local wind speed, temperature and rainfall. Generally, wind speed, temperature and rainfall CDF obtained with CDF-t are significantly similar with the observed CDF, even though CDF-t performance may vary from one station to another due to the sensitivity of the driving large-scale fields or local impact. CDF-t has then been applied to climate simulations of the 21st century under B1 and A2 scenarios

  18. Participatory Approach to Long-Term Socio-Economic Scenarios as Building Block of a Local Vulnerability and Risk Assessment Tool - The Case Study Lienz (East-Tyrol)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyer, Ina; Eder, Brigitte; Hama, Michiko; Leitner, Markus

    2016-04-01

    Risks associated with climate change are mostly still understood and analyzed in a sector- or hazard-specific and rarely in a systemic, dynamic and scenario-based manner. In addition, socio-economic trends are often neglected in local vulnerability and risk assessments although they represent potential key determinants of risk and vulnerability. The project ARISE (Adaptation and Decision Support via Risk Management Through Local Burning Embers) aims at filling this gap by applying a participatory approach to socio-economic scenario building as building block of a local vulnerability assessment and risk management tool. Overall, ARISE aims at developing a decision support system for climate-sensitive iterative risk management as a key adaptation tool for the local level using Lienz in the East-Tyrol as a test-site City. One central building block is participatory socio-economic scenario building that - together with regionalized climate change scenarios - form a centrepiece in the process-oriented assessment of climate change risks and vulnerability. Major vulnerabilities and risks may stem from the economic performance, the socio-economic or socio-demographic developments or changes in asset exposition and not from climate change impacts themselves. The IPCC 5th assessment report underlines this and states that for most economic sectors, the impact of climate change may be small relative to the impacts of other driving forces such as changes in population growth, age, income, technology, relative prices, lifestyle, regulation, governance and many other factors in the socio-economy (Arent et al., 2014). The paper presents the methodology, process and results with respect to the building of long-term local socio-economic scenarios for the City of Lienz and the surrounding countryside. Scenarios were developed in a participatory approach using a scenario workshop that involved major stakeholders from the region. Participatory approaches are increasingly recognized as

  19. Environmental assessment: Reference repository location, Hanford site, Washington

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    none,

    1986-05-01

    In February 1983, the US Department of Energy (DOE) identified a reference repository location at the Hanford Site in Washington as one of the nine potentially acceptable sites for a mined geologic repository for spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste. The site is in the Columbia Plateau, which is one of five distinct geohydrologic settings considered for the first repository. To determine their suitability, the Hanford Site and the eight other potentially acceptable sites have been evaluated in accordance with the DOE's General Guidelines for the Recommendation of Sites for the Nuclear Waste Repositories. These evaluations were reported in draft environmental assessments (EAs), which were issued for public review and comment. After considering the comments received on the draft EAs, the DOE prepared the final EAs. On the basis of the evaluations reported in this EA, the DOE has found that the Hanford site is not disqualified under the guidelines. The DOE has also found that it is suitable for site characterization because the evidence does not support a conclusion that the site will not be able to meet each of the qualifying conditions specified in the guidelines. On the basis of these findings, the DOE is nominating the Hanford site as one of five sites suitable for characterization.

  20. Environmental assessment: Reference repository location, Hanford site, Washington

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    none,

    1986-05-01

    In February 1983, the US Department of Energy (DOE) identified a reference repository location at the Hanford Site in Washington as one of the nine potentially acceptable sites for a mined geologic repository for spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste. The site is in the Columbia Plateau, which is one of five distinct geohydrologic settings considered for the first repository. To determine their suitability, the Hanford site and the eight other potentially acceptable sites have been evaluated in accordance with the DOE's General Guidelines for the Recommendation of Sites for the Nuclear Waste Repositories. These evaluations were reported in draft environmental assessments (EAs), which were issued for public review and comment. After considering the comments received on the draft EAs, the DOE prepared the final EAs. On the basis of the evaluations reported in this EA, the DOE has found that the Hanford site is not disqualified under the guidelines. The DOE has also found that is is suitable for site characterization because the evidence does not support a conclusion that the site will not be able to meet each of the qualifying conditions specified in the guidelines. On the basis of these findings, the DOE is nominating the Hanford site as one of five sites available for characterization.

  1. Public Review Draft: A Method for Assessing Carbon Stocks, Carbon Sequestration, and Greenhouse-Gas Fluxes in Ecosystems of the United States Under Present Conditions and Future Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bergamaschi, Brian A.; Bernknopf, Richard; Clow, David; Dye, Dennis; Faulkner, Stephen; Forney, William; Gleason, Robert; Hawbaker, Todd; Liu, Jinxun; Liu, Shu-Guang; Prisley, Stephen; Reed, Bradley; Reeves, Matthew; Rollins, Matthew; Sleeter, Benjamin; Sohl, Terry; Stackpoole, Sarah; Stehman, Stephen; Striegl, Robert G.; Wein, Anne; Zhu, Zhi-Liang; Zhu, Zhi-Liang

    2010-01-01

    The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA), Section 712, authorizes the U.S. Department of the Interior to develop a methodology and conduct an assessment of the Nation's ecosystems focusing on carbon stocks, carbon sequestration, and emissions of three greenhouse gases (GHGs): carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide. The major requirements include (1) an assessment of all ecosystems (terrestrial systems, such as forests, croplands, wetlands, shrub and grasslands; and aquatic ecosystems, such as rivers, lakes, and estuaries), (2) an estimation of annual potential capacities of ecosystems to increase carbon sequestration and reduce net GHG emissions in the context of mitigation strategies (including management and restoration activities), and (3) an evaluation of the effects of controlling processes, such as climate change, land use and land cover, and wildlfires. The purpose of this draft methodology for public review is to propose a technical plan to conduct the assessment. Within the methodology, the concepts of ecosystems, carbon pools, and GHG fluxes used for the assessment follow conventional definitions in use by major national and international assessment or inventory efforts. In order to estimate current ecosystem carbon stocks and GHG fluxes and to understand the potential capacity and effects of mitigation strategies, the method will use two time periods for the assessment: 2001 through 2010, which establishes a current ecosystem GHG baseline and will be used to validate the models; and 2011 through 2050, which will be used to assess future potential conditions based on a set of projected scenarios. The scenario framework is constructed using storylines of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report Emission Scenarios (SRES), along with initial reference land-use and land-cover (LULC) and land-management scenarios. An additional three LULC and land-management mitigation scenarios will be constructed for each

  2. Cancer: scenario and relationship of different geographical areas of the globe with special reference to North East-India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, Jagannath Dev; Kalit, Manoj; Nirmolia, Tulika; Saikia, Sidhartha Protim; Sharma, Arpita; Barman, Debanjana

    2014-01-01

    Cancer is becoming the most important public health burden around the globe. As per the GLOBOCAN 2008 estimates, about 12.7 million cancer cases and 7.6 million cancer deaths were estimated to have occurred in 2008. The burden of cancer cases for India in the year 2020 is calculated to be 1,148,757 (male 534,353; female 614,404) compared to 979,786 in 2010. The pattern of cancer incidence is varying among geographical regions, esophageal cancer for example being high in China, lung cancer in USA, and gallbladder cancer in Chile. The question remains why? Is it due to the diversity in genome pool, food habits, risk factor association and role of genetic susceptibility or some other factors associated with it? In India, the North East (NE)-India region is seeing a marked increase in cancer incidence and deaths, with a very different cancer incidence pattern compared to mainland India. The genome pool of the region is also quite distinct from the rest of India. Northeastern tribes are quite distinct from other groups; they are more closely related to East Asians than to other Indians. In this paper an attempt was made to see whether there is any similarity among the pattern of cancer incidence cases for different sites of NE-India region to South or East-Asia. Principal Component Analysis (PCA), Hierarchical Cluster Analysis (HCA), Pearson Correlation coefficient test was assessed to evaluate the linkage of North-East India region to other regions. A p value India with South and East-Asian regions, which may lead to the conclusion that there might be a genetic linkage between these regions.

  3. Experimental assessment of accident scenarios for the high temperature reactor fuel system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Seeger, O.; Avincola, V.; Bottomley, P.D.W.; Rondinella, V.V. [European Commission Joint Research Centre - Institute for Transuranium Elements (JRC-ITU) (Germany)

    2012-11-01

    The High Temperature Reactor (HTR) is an advanced reactor concept with particular safety features. Fuel elements are constituted by a graphite matrix containing sub-mm-sized fuel particles with TRISO (tri-isotropic) coating designed to provide high fission product retention. Passive safety features of the HTR include a low power density in the core compared to other reactor designs; this ensures sufficient heat transport in a loss of coolant accident scenario. The temperature during such events would not exceed 1600 C, remaining well below the melting point of the fuel. An experimental assessment of the fuel behaviour under severe accident conditions is necessary to confirm the fission product retention of TRISO coated particles and to validate relevant computer codes. Though helium is used as coolant for the HTR system, additional corrosion effects come into play in case of an in-leakage affecting the primary circuit. The experimental scope of the present work focuses on two key aspects associated with the HTR fuel safety. Fission product retention at high temperatures (up to {proportional_to}1800 C) is analyzed with the so-called cold finger apparatus (KueFA: Kuehlfinger-Apparatur), while the performance of HTR fuel elements in case of air/steam ingress accidents is assessed with a high temperature corrosion apparatus (KORA: Korrosions-Apparatur). (orig.)

  4. Assessment and use of drug information references in Utah pharmacies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moorman, Krystal L; Macdonald, Elyse A; Trovato, Anthony; Tak, Casey R

    2017-01-01

    To determine which drug references Utah pharmacists use most frequently. To determine which types of drug information questions are most commonly asked, and whether Utah pharmacists have access to adequate references to respond to these questions. A 19-question survey was created using Qualtrics, LLC (Provo, Utah) software. An electronic survey link was sent to 1,431 pharmacists with a valid e-mail address listed in the Department of Professional Licensing database. Questions focused on available references in the participant's pharmacy, how current the references are, and the participant's use of the references. Surveys were analyzed for participants practicing in either community or hospital pharmacies in the state of Utah. A total of 147 responses were included in the analysis. Approximately 44% of respondents practiced in the community, and 56% practiced in a hospital setting. The most commonly used references by Utah pharmacists are Micromedex, Lexicomp, UpToDate, Clinical Pharmacology, and Drug Facts & Comparisons. Pharmacists in the community frequently receive questions related to adverse drug reactions, drug interactions, and over-the-counter medications. Pharmacists in the hospital frequently receive questions relating to dosage and administration, drug interactions, and adverse drug reactions. About 89% of community pharmacists and 96% of hospital pharmacists feel available references are adequate to answer the questions they receive. Utah pharmacists generally use large reference suites to answer drug information questions. The majority of pharmacists consider the references available to them to be adequate to answer the questions they receive.

  5. Experimental assessment of accident scenarios for the high temperature reactor fuel system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Seeger, O.; Laurie, M.; Bottomley, P.D.W.; Rondinella, V.V. [European Commission, Joint Research Center, Karlsruhe (Germany). Inst. for Transuranium Elements; Avincola, V. [Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe (Germany). Inst. fuer Angewandte Materialien (IAM-AWP); Allelein, H.J. [RWTH Aachen Univ. (Germany). Lehrstuhl fuer Reaktorsicherheit und -technik

    2013-11-15

    The High Temperature Reactor (HTR) is characterized by an advanced design with passive safety features. Fuel elements are constituted by a graphite matrix containing sub-mm-sized fuel particles with TRi-ISOtropic (TRISO) coating, designed to provide high fission product retention. During a loss of coolant accident scenario in a HTR the maximum temperature is foreseen to be in the range of 1,600 to 1,650 C, remaining well below the melting point of the fuel. Two key aspects associated with the safety of HTR fuel are assessed in this paper: fission product retention at temperatures up to 1,800 C is analyzed with the Cold Finger Apparatus (KueFA) while the behaviour of HTR-relevant fuel materials in an oxidizing environment is studied with the Corrosion Apparatus KORA. The KueFA is used to observe the combined effects of Depressurization and LOss of Forced Circulation (DLOFC) accident scenarios on HTR fuel. Originally designed at the Forschungszentrum Juelich (FZJ), an adapted KueFA operates on irradiated fuel in hot cell at JRC-ITU. A fuel pebble is heated in helium atmosphere for several hundred hours, mimicking accident temperatures up to 1,800 C and realistic temperature transients. Nongaseous volatile fission products released from the fuel condense on a water cooled stainless steel plate dubbed 'Cold Finger'. Exchanging plates frequently during the experiment and analyzing plate deposits by means of High Purity Germanium (HPGe) gamma spectroscopy allows a reconstruction of the fission product release as a function of time and temperature. To achieve a good quantification of the release, a careful calibration of the setup is necessary and a collimator needs to be used in some cases. The analysis of condensation plates from recent KueFA tests shows that fission product release quantification is possible at high and low activity levels. Another relevant HTR accident scenario is air ingress into the reactor vessel as a consequence of a DLOFC incident. In

  6. From "farm to fork" strawberry system: current realities and potential innovative scenarios from life cycle assessment of non-renewable energy use and green house gas emissions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Girgenti, Vincenzo; Peano, Cristiana; Baudino, Claudio; Tecco, Nadia

    2014-03-01

    In this study, we analysed the environmental profile of the strawberry industry in Northern Italy. The analysis was conducted using two scenarios as reference systems: strawberry crops grown in unheated plastic tunnels using currently existing cultivation techniques, post-harvest management practices and consumption patterns (scenario 1) and the same strawberry cultivation chain in which some of the materials used were replaced with bio-based materials (scenario 2). In numerous studies, biodegradable polymers have been shown to be environmentally friendly, thus potentially reducing environmental impacts. These materials can be recycled into carbon dioxide and water through composting. Many materials, such as Mater-BI® and PLA®, are also derived from renewable resources. The methodology chosen for the environmental analysis was a life cycle assessment (LCA) based on a consequential approach developed to assess a product's overall environmental impact from the production system to its usage and disposal. In the field stage, a traditional mulching film (non-biodegradable) could be replaced with a biodegradable product. This change would result in waste production of 0 kg/ha for the bio-based product compared to 260 kg/ha of waste for polyethylene (PE). In the post-harvest stage, the issue addressed was the use and disposal of packaging materials. The innovative scenario evaluated herein pertains to the use of new packaging materials that increase the shelf life of strawberries, thereby decreasing product losses while increasing waste management efficiency at the level of a distribution platform and/or sales outlet. In the event of product deterioration or non-sale of the product, the packaging and its contents could be collected together as organic waste without any additional processes because the packaging is compostable according to EN13432. Scenario 2 would achieve reductions of 20% in the global warming potential and non-renewable energy impact categories

  7. Construct and face validity of the educational computer-based environment (ECE) assessment scenarios for basic endoneurosurgery skills.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cagiltay, Nergiz Ercil; Ozcelik, Erol; Sengul, Gokhan; Berker, Mustafa

    2017-11-01

    In neurosurgery education, there is a paradigm shift from time-based training to criterion-based model for which competency and assessment becomes very critical. Even virtual reality simulators provide alternatives to improve education and assessment in neurosurgery programs and allow for several objective assessment measures, there are not many tools for assessing the overall performance of trainees. This study aims to develop and validate a tool for assessing the overall performance of participants in a simulation-based endoneurosurgery training environment. A training program was developed in two levels: endoscopy practice and beginning surgical practice based on four scenarios. Then, three experiments were conducted with three corresponding groups of participants (Experiment 1, 45 (32 beginners, 13 experienced), Experiment 2, 53 (40 beginners, 13 experienced), and Experiment 3, 26 (14 novices, 12 intermediate) participants). The results analyzed to understand the common factors among the performance measurements of these experiments. Then, a factor capable of assessing the overall skill levels of surgical residents was extracted. Afterwards, the proposed measure was tested to estimate the experience levels of the participants. Finally, the level of realism of these educational scenarios was assessed. The factor formed by time, distance, and accuracy on simulated tasks provided an overall performance indicator. The prediction correctness was very high for the beginners than the one for experienced surgeons in Experiments 1 and 2. When non-dominant hand is used in a surgical procedure-based scenario, skill levels of surgeons can be better predicted. The results indicate that the scenarios in Experiments 1 and 2 can be used as an assessment tool for the beginners, and scenario-2 in Experiment 3 can be used as an assessment tool for intermediate and novice levels. It can be concluded that forming the balance between perceived action capacities and skills is

  8. Soil response along the coastal plain of Israel for seismic hazard assessments and earthquake scenario applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shapira, A.; Zaslavsky, Y.; Gorstein, M.; Kalmanovich, M.

    2003-04-01

    About 2 million inhabitants in Israel, almost one third of total population of the country, live in a narrow strip along the coast between the towns of Ashqelon in the south and Haifa in the north (130x10 km^2). Due to the high population density, this region may be considered a high seismic risk zone. The objective of this study was to derive the ground shaking characteristics, resonance frequencies and amplification factors for different site conditions along the coast. The quantitative assessment of the site response to seismic motions is made from the horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratios of ambient noise measurements at 190 sites. The loose sediments of sand and alluvium units yield amplification factors of 2-3 in the frequency range 1.2-3.5 Hz. In the Carmel coast, the complex calcareous sandstone and loose sediments, with a total thickness of 15-30m, that covers the Judea Group carbonates, may yield amplification factor up to 8 at frequency ranging from 2 to 6 Hz. The observed resonance frequencies and their amplifications were correlated with analytical functions that correspond to 1-D subsurface models. In many cases, we could not obtain useful data from borehole, to estimate the depth to the half-space. The thickness of the resonating soil layers was better estimated by correlating regional geological information with the mapped distribution of the predominant frequency and the maximum amplification across the investigated area. The Coastal Plain area was divided into six geographical zones, each one characterized by fundamental frequency and amplification factor. For each zone we adjusted the characteristic soil-column model. Under the assumption that the soil layers will behave linearly to the expected seismic ground motions and incorporating the local site conditions, we implemented the Stochastic Evaluation of Earthquake Hazard (Shapira and van Eck, 1993) procedure, to assess the site-specific uniform hazard in terms of peak ground acceleration

  9. Assessing Regional Scale Variability in Extreme Value Statistics Under Altered Climate Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brunsell, Nathaniel [Univ. of Kansas, Lawrence, KS (United States); Mechem, David [Univ. of Kansas, Lawrence, KS (United States); Ma, Chunsheng [Wichita State Univ., KS (United States)

    2015-02-20

    validity of an innovative multi–resolution information theory approach, and the ability of the RCM modeling framework to represent the low-frequency modulation of extreme climate events. Once the skill of the modeling and analysis methodology has been established, we will apply the same approach for the AR5 (IPCC Fifth Assessment Report) climate change scenarios in order to assess how climate extremes and the the influence of lowfrequency variability on climate extremes might vary under changing climate. The research specifically addresses the DOE focus area 2. Simulation of climate extremes under a changing climate. Specific results will include (1) a better understanding of the spatial and temporal structure of extreme events, (2) a thorough quantification of how extreme values are impacted by low-frequency climate teleconnections, (3) increased knowledge of current regional climate models ability to ascertain these influences, and (4) a detailed examination of the how the distribution of extreme events are likely to change under different climate change scenarios. In addition, this research will assess the ability of the innovative wavelet information theory approach to characterize extreme events. Any and all of these results will greatly enhance society’s ability to understand and mitigate the regional ramifications of future global climate change.

  10. Life cycle assessment of Italian citrus-based products. Sensitivity analysis and improvement scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beccali, Marco; Cellura, Maurizio; Iudicello, Maria; Mistretta, Marina

    2010-07-01

    Though many studies concern the agro-food sector in the EU and Italy, and its environmental impacts, literature is quite lacking in works regarding LCA application on citrus products. This paper represents one of the first studies on the environmental impacts of citrus products in order to suggest feasible strategies and actions to improve their environmental performance. In particular, it is part of a research aimed to estimate environmental burdens associated with the production of the following citrus-based products: essential oil, natural juice and concentrated juice from oranges and lemons. The life cycle assessment of these products, published in a previous paper, had highlighted significant environmental issues in terms of energy consumption, associated CO(2) emissions, and water consumption. Starting from such results the authors carry out an improvement analysis of the assessed production system, whereby sustainable scenarios for saving water and energy are proposed to reduce environmental burdens of the examined production system. In addition, a sensitivity analysis to estimate the effects of the chosen methods will be performed, giving data on the outcome of the study. Uncertainty related to allocation methods, secondary data sources, and initial assumptions on cultivation, transport modes, and waste management is analysed. The results of the performed analyses allow stating that every assessed eco-profile is differently influenced by the uncertainty study. Different assumptions on initial data and methods showed very sensible variations in the energy and environmental performances of the final products. Besides, the results show energy and environmental benefits that clearly state the improvement of the products eco-profile, by reusing purified water use for irrigation, using the railway mode for the delivery of final products, when possible, and adopting efficient technologies, as the mechanical vapour recompression, in the pasteurisation and

  11. Building Capacity in Urban Sustainability Assessment through Use of a Scenarios Game

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Rhys E.; Rutledge, Daniel T.; van Roon, Henri

    2011-01-01

    Urban form, the patterns of cities, in New Zealand is explored 50 years into the future through a scenarios game, published on the Internet. Four diverse scenarios provide a means to explore the present situation and envision how it may change over time with different trend drivers. Wild card events introduce uncertainty in a way that resonates…

  12. The use of scenarios as the basis for combined assessment of climate change mitigation and adaptation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Vuuren, D.P.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/11522016X; Isaac, M.; Kundzewicz, Z.W.; Arnell, N.; Barker, T.; Criqui, P.; Berkhout, F.; Hilderink, H.; Hinkel, J.; Hof, Andries|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/240412397; Kitous, A.; Kram, T.; Mechler, R.; Scrieciu, S.

    2011-01-01

    Scenarios are used to explore the consequences of different adaptation and mitigation strategies under uncertainty. In this paper, two scenarios are used to explore developments with (1) no mitigation leading to an increase of global mean temperature of 4 °C by 2100 and (2) an ambitious mitigation

  13. Assessment and use of drug information references in Utah pharmacies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Moorman KL

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Objective: To determine which drug references Utah pharmacists use most frequently. To determine which types of drug information questions are most commonly asked, and whether Utah pharmacists have access to adequate references to respond to these questions. Methods: A 19-question survey was created using Qualtrics, LLC (Provo, Utah software. An electronic survey link was sent to 1,431 pharmacists with a valid e-mail address listed in the Department of Professional Licensing database. Questions focused on available references in the participant’s pharmacy, how current the references are, and the participant’s use of the references. Surveys were analyzed for participants practicing in either community or hospital pharmacies in the state of Utah. Results: A total of 147 responses were included in the analysis. Approximately 44% of respondents practiced in the community, and 56% practiced in a hospital setting. The most commonly used references by Utah pharmacists are Micromedex, Lexicomp, UpToDate, Clinical Pharmacology, and Drug Facts & Comparisons. Pharmacists in the community frequently receive questions related to adverse drug reactions, drug interactions, and over-the-counter medications. Pharmacists in the hospital frequently receive questions relating to dosage and administration, drug interactions, and adverse drug reactions. About 89% of community pharmacists and 96% of hospital pharmacists feel available references are adequate to answer the questions they receive. Conclusions: Utah pharmacists generally use large reference suites to answer drug information questions. The majority of pharmacists consider the references available to them to be adequate to answer the questions they receive.

  14. Fabric-skin models to assess infection transfer for impetigo contagiosa in a kindergarten scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerhardts, A; Henze, S V; Bockmühl, D; Höfer, D

    2015-06-01

    Children in community bodies like kindergartens are predisposed to suffer from impetigo. To consider important measures for infection prevention, direct and indirect transmission routes of pathogens must be revealed. Therefore, we studied the role of skin and fabrics in the spread of the impetigo pathogen Staphylococcus aureus and the strain Streptococcus equi (surrogate to Streptococcus pyogenes) in order to assess infection transfer in realistic scenarios. The transmission of test strains was studied with standardized fabric-skin models using a technical artificial skin and fabrics of different fiber types commonly occurring in German kindergartens. In synthetic pus, both test strains persisted on artificial skin and fabrics for at least 4 h. Friction enhanced transfer, depending on the fiber type or fabric construction. In a skin-to-skin setup, the total transfer was higher than via fabrics and no decrease in the transmission rates from donor to recipients could be observed after successive direct skin contacts. Children in kindergartens may be at risk of transmission for impetigo pathogens, especially via direct skin contact, but also by the joint use of fabrics, like towels or handicraft materials. Fabric-skin models used in this study enable further insight into the transmission factors for skin infections on the basis of a practical approach.

  15. Assessment and comparison of total RF-EMF exposure in femtocell and macrocell base station scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aerts, Sam; Plets, David; Verloock, Leen; Martens, Luc; Joseph, Wout

    2014-12-01

    The indoor coverage of a mobile service can be drastically improved by deployment of an indoor femtocell base station (FBS). However, the impact of its proximity on the total exposure of the human body to radio-frequency (RF) electromagnetic fields (EMFs) is unknown. Using a framework designed for the combination of near-field and far-field exposure, the authors assessed and compared the RF-EMF exposure of a mobile-phone (MP) user that is either connected to an FBS or a conventional macrocell base station while in an office environment. It is found that, in average macrocell coverage and MP use-time conditions and for Universal Mobile Telecommunications System technology, the total exposure can be reduced by a factor of 20-40 by using an FBS, mostly due to the significant decrease in the output power of the MP. In general, the framework presented in this study can be used for any exposure scenario, featuring any number of technologies, base stations and/or access points, users and duration. © The Author 2013. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  16. A Simulation-based, cognitive assessment of resident decision making during complex urinary catheterization scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nathwani, Jay N; Law, Katherine E; Witt, Anna K; Ray, R D; DiMarco, S M; Pugh, C M

    2017-04-01

    This study explores general surgery residents' decision making skills in uncommon, complex urinary catheter scenarios. 40 residents were presented with two scenarios. Scenario A was a male with traumatic urethral injury and scenario B was a male with complete urinary blockage. Residents verbalized whether they would catheterize the patient and described the workup and management of suspected pathologies. Residents' decision paths were documented and analyzed. In scenario A, 45% of participants chose to immediately consult Urology. 47.5% named five diagnostic tests to decide if catheterization was safe. In scenario B, 27% chose to catheterize with a 16 French Coude. When faced with catheterization failure, participants randomly upsized or downsized catheters. Chi-square analysis revealed no measurable consensus amongst participants. Residents need more training in complex decision making for urinary catheterization. The decision trees generated in this study provide a useful blueprint of residents' learning needs. Exploration of general surgery residents' decision making skills in uncommon, complex urinary catheter scenarios revealed major deficiencies. The resulting decision trees reveal residents' learning needs. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Environmental influences on mate preferences as assessed by a scenario manipulation experiment.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniele Marzoli

    Full Text Available Many evolutionary psychology studies have addressed the topic of mate preferences, focusing particularly on gender and cultural differences. However, the extent to which situational and environmental variables might affect mate preferences has been comparatively neglected. We tested 288 participants in order to investigate the perceived relative importance of six traits of an ideal partner (wealth, dominance, intelligence, height, kindness, attractiveness under four different hypothetical scenarios (status quo/nowadays, violence/post-nuclear, poverty/resource exhaustion, prosperity/global well-being. An equal number of participants (36 women, 36 men was allotted to each scenario; each was asked to allocate 120 points across the six traits according to their perceived value. Overall, intelligence was the trait to which participants assigned most importance, followed by kindness and attractiveness, and then by wealth, dominance and height. Men appraised attractiveness as more valuable than women. Scenario strongly influenced the relative importance attributed to traits, the main finding being that wealth and dominance were more valued in the poverty and post-nuclear scenarios, respectively, compared to the other scenarios. Scenario manipulation generally had similar effects in both sexes, but women appeared particularly prone to trade off other traits for dominance in the violence scenario, and men particularly prone to trade off other traits for wealth in the poverty scenario. Our results are in line with other correlational studies of situational variables and mate preferences, and represent strong evidence of a causal relationship of environmental factors on specific mate preferences, corroborating the notion of an evolved plasticity to current ecological conditions. A control experiment seems to suggest that our scenarios can be considered as realistic descriptions of the intended ecological conditions.

  18. Environmental influences on mate preferences as assessed by a scenario manipulation experiment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marzoli, Daniele; Moretto, Francesco; Monti, Aura; Tocci, Ornella; Roberts, S Craig; Tommasi, Luca

    2013-01-01

    Many evolutionary psychology studies have addressed the topic of mate preferences, focusing particularly on gender and cultural differences. However, the extent to which situational and environmental variables might affect mate preferences has been comparatively neglected. We tested 288 participants in order to investigate the perceived relative importance of six traits of an ideal partner (wealth, dominance, intelligence, height, kindness, attractiveness) under four different hypothetical scenarios (status quo/nowadays, violence/post-nuclear, poverty/resource exhaustion, prosperity/global well-being). An equal number of participants (36 women, 36 men) was allotted to each scenario; each was asked to allocate 120 points across the six traits according to their perceived value. Overall, intelligence was the trait to which participants assigned most importance, followed by kindness and attractiveness, and then by wealth, dominance and height. Men appraised attractiveness as more valuable than women. Scenario strongly influenced the relative importance attributed to traits, the main finding being that wealth and dominance were more valued in the poverty and post-nuclear scenarios, respectively, compared to the other scenarios. Scenario manipulation generally had similar effects in both sexes, but women appeared particularly prone to trade off other traits for dominance in the violence scenario, and men particularly prone to trade off other traits for wealth in the poverty scenario. Our results are in line with other correlational studies of situational variables and mate preferences, and represent strong evidence of a causal relationship of environmental factors on specific mate preferences, corroborating the notion of an evolved plasticity to current ecological conditions. A control experiment seems to suggest that our scenarios can be considered as realistic descriptions of the intended ecological conditions.

  19. Worst-case scenario approach to the tsunami hazard assessment for the Apulian coasts (southern Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armigliato, Alberto; Pagnoni, Gianluca; Zaniboni, Filippo; Tinti, Stefano

    2014-05-01

    In the framework of the Mediterranean basin, Apulia cannot be counted among the most active areas in terms of earthquake and tsunami activity. Nonetheless, in its northern part, which includes the Gargano peninsula, several earthquakes with magnitudes up to 6.7 occurred historically, some of which were also tsunamigenic. The most famous one is the 30 July 1627 event, which produced extensive inundation in the northern part of Gargano and relevant effects also in some portions of its southern side. Its parent fault is still a matter of debate, since both the inland epicentral location determined by macroseismic studies and the strike-slip dominant focal mechanism inferred from local geology are incompatible with a tsunami excitation capable of producing the effects reported by the coeval sources. Moreover, Apulia is bounded by much more tectonically active and tsunamigenic regions, such as the Dalmatia-Montenegro-Albania coastal belt to the East, the western Hellenic Arc to the South-East and the Calabrian arc to the South-West. Finally, Apulia is located in a strategic position in between eastern and western Europe, involving the installation of crucial international infrastructures, such as the Trans-Adriatic gas pipeline. For all the reasons mentioned above, performing an accurate assessment of the hazard related (at least) to earthquakes and tsunami impact in Apulia represents a need. The OTRIONS project developed a multi-parametric network for this purpose, and in its framework we studied the tsunami hazard along the Apulian coasts by means of a worst-case credible scenario approach. This involved the selection and characterisation of all possible tsunamigenic sources both at local and remote distances: this task was carried out as a shared effort with the Italian national RITMARE project. The recognised sources, mainly retrieved from the published literature and from databases available online, include tectonic faults as well as submarine landslides. The

  20. Intravascular ultrasound assessment of remodelling and reference segment plaque burden in type-2 diabetic patients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Lisette Okkels; Thayssen, Per; Mintz, Gary S

    2007-01-01

    AIMS: Intravascular ultrasound (IVUS) assesses arterial remodelling by comparing the lesion external elastic membrane (EEM) with the reference segments; however, reference segments are rarely disease-free. The aim was to assess lesion and reference segment remodelling and plaque burden in patients...

  1. Life-cycle analysis of the total Danish energy system. An assessment of the present Danish energy system and selected furture scenarios. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kuemmel, B.; Soerensen, B.

    1997-01-01

    The promise of life-cycle analysis (LCA) is to enable the incorporation of environmental and social impacts into decision-making processes. The challenge is to do it on the basis of the always incomplete and uncertain data available, in a way that is sufficiently transparent to avoid that the modeller introduces any particular bias into the decision process, by the way of selecting and treating the incomplete data. The life-cycle analysis of the currently existing system is to be seen as a reference, against which alternative solutions to the same problem is weighed. However, as it takes time to introduce new systems, the alternative scenarios are for a future situation, which is chosen as the middle of the 21st century. The reason for using a 30-50 year period is a reflection on the time needed for a smooth transition to an energy system based on sources different from the ones used today, with implied differences all the way through the conversion and end-use system. A scenario will only be selected if it has been identified and if there is social support for it, so construction of more exotic scenarios by the researcher would only be meaningful, if its advantages are so convincing that an interest can be created and the necessary social support be forthcoming. One may say that the energy scenarios based on renewable energy sources are in this category, as they were identified by a minority group (of scientists and other individuals) and successfully brought to the attention of the public debate during 1970ies. In any case it should be kept in mind, that no claim of having identified the optimum solution can be made after assessing a finite number of scenarios. (EG) 88 refs.

  2. Exposure Scenarios and Unit Dose Factors for the Hanford Immobilized Low Activity Tank Waste Performance Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    RITTMANN, P.D.

    1999-12-29

    Exposure scenarios are defined to identify potential pathways and combinations of pathways that could lead to radiation exposure from immobilized tank waste. Appropriate data and models are selected to permit calculation of dose factors for each exposure

  3. Assessing climate change impacts, benefits of mitigation, and uncertainties on major global forest regions under multiple socioeconomic and emissions scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    John B Kim; Erwan Monier; Brent Sohngen; G Stephen Pitts; Ray Drapek; James McFarland; Sara Ohrel; Jefferson Cole

    2016-01-01

    We analyze a set of simulations to assess the impact of climate change on global forests where MC2 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) was run with climate simulations from the MIT Integrated Global System Model-Community Atmosphere Model (IGSM-CAM) modeling framework. The core study relies on an ensemble of climate simulations under two emissions scenarios: a...

  4. An Event-Based Approach to Design a Teamwork Training Scenario and Assessment Tool in Surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, Ngan; Watson, William D; Dominguez, Edward

    2016-01-01

    Simulation is a technique recommended for teaching and measuring teamwork, but few published methodologies are available on how best to design simulation for teamwork training in surgery and health care in general. The purpose of this article is to describe a general methodology, called event-based approach to training (EBAT), to guide the design of simulation for teamwork training and discuss its application to surgery. The EBAT methodology draws on the science of training by systematically introducing training exercise events that are linked to training requirements (i.e., competencies being trained and learning objectives) and performance assessment. The EBAT process involves: Of the 4 teamwork competencies endorsed by the Agency for Healthcare Research Quality and Department of Defense, "communication" was chosen to be the focus of our training efforts. A total of 5 learning objectives were defined based on 5 validated teamwork and communication techniques. Diagnostic laparoscopy was chosen as the clinical context to frame the training scenario, and 29 KSAs were defined based on review of published literature on patient safety and input from subject matter experts. Critical events included those that correspond to a specific phase in the normal flow of a surgical procedure as well as clinical events that may occur when performing the operation. Similar to the targeted KSAs, targeted responses to the critical events were developed based on existing literature and gathering input from content experts. Finally, a 29-item EBAT-derived checklist was created to assess communication performance. Like any instructional tool, simulation is only effective if it is designed and implemented appropriately. It is recognized that the effectiveness of simulation depends on whether (1) it is built upon a theoretical framework, (2) it uses preplanned structured exercises or events to allow learners the opportunity to exhibit the targeted KSAs, (3) it assesses performance, and (4

  5. Development of agro-environmental scenarios to support pesticide risk assessment in Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Centofanti, T; Hollis, J M; Blenkinsop, S; Fowler, H J; Truckell, I; Dubus, I G; Reichenberger, S

    2008-12-15

    This paper describes work carried out within the EU-funded FOOTPRINT project to characterize the diversity of European agricultural and environmental conditions with respect to parameters which most influence the environmental fate of pesticides. Pan-European datasets for soils, climate, land cover and cropping were intersected, using GIS, to identify the full range of unique combinations of climate, soil and crop types which characterize European agriculture. The resulting FOOTPRINT European agro-environmental dataset constitutes a large number of polygons (approximately 1,700,000) with attribute data files for i) area fractions of annual crops related to each arable-type polygon (as an indicator of its probability of occurrence); and, ii) area fractions of each soil type in each polygon (as an indicator of its probability of occurrence). A total of 25,044 unique combinations of climate zones, agricultural land cover classes, administrative units and soil map units were identified. The same soil/crop combinations occur in many polygons which have the same climate while the fractions of the soils and arable crops are different. The number of unique combinations of climate, soil and agricultural land cover class is therefore only 7961. 26-year daily meteorological data, soil profile characteristics and crop management features were associated with each unique combination. The agro-environmental scenarios developed can be used to underpin the parameterization of environmental fate models for pesticides and should also have relevance for other agricultural pollutants. The implications for the improvement and further development of risk assessment procedures for pesticides are discussed.

  6. The 1843 earthquake: a maximising scenario for tsunami hazard assessment in the Northern Lesser Antilles?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roger, Jean; Zahibo, Narcisse; Dudon, Bernard; Krien, Yann

    2013-04-01

    The French Caribbean Islands are located over the Lesser Antilles active subduction zone where a handful of earthquakes historically reached magnitude Mw=6.0 and more. According to available catalogs these earthquakes have been sometimes able to trigger devastating local or regional tsunamis, either directly by the shake or indirectly by induced landslides. For example, these islands have severely suffered during the Mw~7.5 Virgin Islands earthquake (1867) triggering several meters high waves in the whole Lesser Antilles Arc and, more recently, during the Mw=6.3 Les Saintes earthquake (2004) followed by a local 1 m high tsunami. However, in 1839 a Mw~7.5 subduction earthquake occured offshore Martinica followed a few years after by the more famous 1843 Mw~8.5 megathrust event, with an epicenter located approximately between Guadeloupe and Antigua, but both without any catastrophic tsunami being reported. In this study we discuss the potential impact of a maximum credible scenario of tsunami generation with such a Mw=8.5 rupture at the subduction interface using available geological information, numerical modeling of tsunami generation and propagation and high resolution bathymetric data within the framework of tsunami hazard assessment for the French West Indies. Despite the fact that the mystery remains unresolved concerning the lack of historical tsunami data especially for the 1843 event, modeling results show that the tsunami impact is not uniformly distributed in the whole archipelago and could show important heterogeneities in terms of maximum wave heights for specific places. This is easily explained by the bathymetry and the presence of several islands around the mainland leading to resonance phenomena, and because of the existence of a fringing coral reef surrounding partially those islands.

  7. MANAGEMENT OF ACUTE SPORTS INJURIES AND MEDICAL CONDITIONS BY PHYSICAL THERAPISTS: ASSESSMENT VIA CASE SCENARIOS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karges, Joy Renae; Salsbery, Mitchell A.; Smith, Danna; Stanley, Erica J.

    2011-01-01

    Purpose/Background: Some physical therapists (PTs) provide services at sporting events, but there are limited studies investigating whether PTs are properly prepared to provide such services. The purpose of this study was to assess acute sports injury and medical condition management decision-making skills of PTs. Methods: A Web-based survey presented 17 case scenarios related to acute medical conditions and sport injuries. PTs from the Sports Physical Therapy Section of The American Physical Therapy Association were e-mailed a cover letter/Web link to the survey and invited to participate over a 30-day period. Data were analyzed using SPSS 18.0. Results: A total of 411 of 5158 PTs who were members of the Sports Physical Therapy Association in 2009 and had valid e-mail addresses completed the survey, of which 389 (7.5%) were appropriate for analysis. Over 75.0% of respondents felt “prepared” or “somewhat prepared” to provide immediate care for 13 out of 16 medical conditions, with seizures, spinal cord injuries, and internal organ injuries having the lowest percentages. Over 75.0% of the respondents made “appropriate” or “overly cautious” decisions for 11 of the 17 acute injury or medical condition cases. Conclusions: Results of the current study indicate that PTs felt more “prepared” and tended to make “appropriate” return to play decisions on the acute sports injury and medical condition case studies more often than coaches who participated in a similar study, regardless of level of importance of the game or whether the athlete was a starter vs. non-starter. However, for PTs who plan on assisting at sporting events, additional preparation/education may be recommended, such as what is taught in an emergency responder course. PMID:21904695

  8. Agglomerative hierarchical cluster method to analyze landslide displacements and assess risk scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bossi, Giulia; Crema, Stefano; Mantovani, Matteo; Schenato, Luca; Cavalli, Marco; Marcato, Gianluca; Frigerio, Simone; Pasuto, Alessandro

    2017-04-01

    In the Rotolon catchment (eastern Italian Alps) a large Deep-seated Gravitational Slope Deformation (DGSD) induces secondary phenomena that are threatening the local population. In 2010 a mass of 340.000 m3 detached from the frontal part of the DGSD and then flow into the draining channel in the form of a debris flow, damaging a bridge and almost over-flooding, endangering the houses located 3 km downstream. For this reason, an Automated Total Station (ATS) has been installed in 2012 to monitor surface displacements so as to identify the most active regions of the slope in order to estimate the volume of material that could be mobilized in the next paroxysmal event and to assess the related risk. 42 benchmarks (5 stable control points and 37 on the active slope) have been monitored for two periods: the first one of 22 months between 2012 and 2014 and the second one for 12 months between 2015 and 2016. Analyzing the time series of displacements with the agglomerative hierarchical cluster method calculated with a simple single linkage algorithm, groups of similarly moving benchmarks have been clustered. For these groups the trend of acceleration and deceleration of displacements follows similar patterns. Even though the methodology does not take into account the position of the benchmarks, matching patterns are found in contiguous benchmarks within the groups, thus confirming the effectiveness of the approach. The possibility to identify areas with homogeneous behavior is fundamental to delineate the volume of possible new debris flow phenomena and therefore to produce reliable risk scenarios.

  9. ECO Exposure Assessment Tools by Phases of ERA - References

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eco-Box is a toolbox for exposure assessors. Its purpose is to provide a compendium of exposure assessment and risk characterization tools that will present comprehensive step-by-step guidance and links to relevant exposure assessment data bases

  10. ECO Exposure Assessment Tools by Receptors and Exposure Factors - References

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eco-Box is a toolbox for exposure assessors. Its purpose is to provide a compendium of exposure assessment and risk characterization tools that will present comprehensive step-by-step guidance and links to relevant exposure assessment data bases

  11. ECO Exposure Assessment Tools by Exposure Pathways - References

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eco-Box is a toolbox for exposure assessors. Its purpose is to provide a compendium of exposure assessment and risk characterization tools that will present comprehensive step-by-step guidance and links to relevant exposure assessment data bases

  12. Assessing carbon stocks and modelling win-win scenarios of carbon sequestration through land-use changes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ponce-Hernandez, R.; Koohafkan, P.; Antoine, J. (eds.)

    2004-07-01

    This publication presents a methodology and software tools for assessing carbon stocks and modelling scenarios of carbon sequestration that were developed and tested in pilot field studies in Mexico and Cuba. The models and tools enable the analysis of land use change scenarios in order to identify in a given area (watershed or district) land use alternatives and land management practices that simultaneously maximize food production, maximize soil carbon sequestration, maximize biodiversity conservation and minimize land degradation. The objective is to develop and implement 'win-win' options that satisfy the multiple goals of farmers, land users and other stakeholders in relation to food security, carbon sequestration, biodiversity and land conservation.

  13. Assessing reference evapotranspiration in a subhumid climate in NE Austria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nolz, Reinhard; Eitzinger, Josef; Cepuder, Peter

    2015-04-01

    Computing reference evapotranspiration and multiplying it with a specific crop coefficient as recommended by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) is the most widely accepted approach to estimate plant water requirements. The standardized form of the well-known FAO Penman-Monteith equation, published by the Environmental and Water Resources Institute of the American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE-EWRI), is recommended as a standard procedure for calculating reference evapotranspiration. Applied and validated under different climatic conditions it generally achieved good results compared to other methods. However, several studies documented deviations between measured and calculated reference evapotranspiration depending on local environmental conditions. Consequently, it seems advisable to evaluate the model under local environmental conditions. Evapotranspiration was determined at a subhumid site in Austria (48°12'N, 16°34'E; 157 m asl) using a large weighing lysimeter operated at (limited) reference conditions and compared with calculations according to ASCE-EWRI. The lysimeter had an inner diameter of 1.9 m and a hemispherical bottom with a maximum depth of 2.5 m. Seepage water was measured at a free draining outlet using a tipping bucket. Lysimeter mass changes were sensed by a weighing facility with an accuracy of ±0.1 mm. Both rainfall and evapotranspiration were determined directly from lysimeter data using a simple water balance equation. Meteorological data for the ASCE-EWRI model were obtained from a weather station of the Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics, Austria (ZAMG). The study period was from 2005 to 2010, analyses were based upon daily time steps. Daily calculated reference evapotranspiration was generally overestimated at small values, whereas it was rather underestimated when evapotranspiration was large, which is supported also by other studies. In the given case, advection of sensible heat proved

  14. Regional Issue Identification and Assessment (RIIA): an analysis of the mid-range projection, Series C Scenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Honea, B.; Hillsman, E.

    1979-10-01

    The Department of Energy has hypothesized a number of alternate energy futures as part of its energy planning and analysis programs. How a proposed energy future called the Mid-Range Projection Series C Scenario would affect Federal Region VI (Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Texas, and New Mexico) is examined in this report. This scenario assumes a medium supply and a medium demand for fuel through 1990, and it incorporates the fuel-switching provisions of the Energy Supply and Environmental Coordination Act. The report portrays the major regional environmental, human health and safety, socioeconomic, and institutional effects that might result from the realization of the Series C Scenario. This discussion should serve as a basis for further assessments, as it identifies some issues of major concern for Region VI that must be addressed in more depth.

  15. Efficient Adoption and Assessment of Multiple Process Improvement Reference Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simona Jeners

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available A variety of reference models such as CMMI, COBIT or ITIL support IT organizations to improve their processes. These process improvement reference models (IRMs cover different domains such as IT development, IT Services or IT Governance but also share some similarities. As there are organizations that address multiple domains and need to coordinate their processes in their improvement we present MoSaIC, an approach to support organizations to efficiently adopt and conform to multiple IRMs. Our solution realizes a semantic integration of IRMs based on common meta-models. The resulting IRM integration model enables organizations to efficiently implement and asses multiple IRMs and to benefit from synergy effects.

  16. Hydrological and water quality impact assessment of a Mediterranean limno-reservoir under climate change and land use management scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molina-Navarro, Eugenio; Trolle, Dennis; Martínez-Pérez, Silvia; Sastre-Merlín, Antonio; Jeppesen, Erik

    2014-02-01

    Water scarcity and water pollution constitute a big challenge for water managers in the Mediterranean region today and will exacerbate in a projected future warmer world, making a holistic approach for water resources management at the catchment scale essential. We expanded the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model developed for a small Mediterranean catchment to quantify the potential effects of various climate and land use change scenarios on catchment hydrology as well as the trophic state of a new kind of waterbody, a limno-reservoir (Pareja Limno-reservoir), created for environmental and recreational purposes. We also checked for the possible synergistic effects of changes in climate and land use on water flow and nutrient exports from the catchment. Simulations showed a noticeable impact of climate change in the river flow regime and consequently the water level of the limno-reservoir, especially during summer, complicating the fulfillment of its purposes. Most of the scenarios also predicted a deterioration of trophic conditions in the limno-reservoir. Fertilization and soil erosion were the main factors affecting nitrate and total phosphorus concentrations. Combined climate and land use change scenarios showed noticeable synergistic effects on nutrients exports, relative to running the scenarios individually. While the impact of fertilization on nitrate export is projected to be reduced with warming in most cases, an additional 13% increase in the total phosphorus export is expected in the worst-case combined scenario compared to the sum of individual scenarios. Our model framework may help water managers to assess and manage how these multiple environmental stressors interact and ultimately affect aquatic ecosystems.

  17. Scenario drafting for early technology assessment of next generation sequencing in clinical oncology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joosten, S E P; Retèl, V P; Coupé, V M H; van den Heuvel, M M; van Harten, W H

    2016-02-06

    Next Generation Sequencing (NGS) is expected to lift molecular diagnostics in clinical oncology to the next level. It enables simultaneous identification of mutations in a patient tumor, after which targeted therapy may be assigned. This approach could improve patient survival and/or assist in controlling healthcare costs by offering expensive treatment to only those likely to benefit. However, NGS has yet to make its way into the clinic. Health Technology Assessment can support the adoption and implementation of a novel technology, but at this early stage many of the required variables are still unknown. Scenario drafting and expert elicitation via a questionnaire were used to identify factors that may act as a barrier or facilitate adoption of NGS-based molecular diagnostics. Attention was paid to predominantly elicit quantitative answers, allowing their use in future modelling of cost-effectiveness. Adequately informing patients and physicians, the latters' opinion on clinical utility and underlying evidence as well as presenting sequencing results within a relevant timeframe may act as pivotal facilitators. Reimbursement for NGS-based testing and accompanying therapies (both general and in case of off-label prescription) was found to be a potential barrier. Competition on the market and demonstrating clinical utility may also be challenging. Importantly, numerous quantitative values for variables related to each of these potential barriers/facilitators, such as such as desired panel characteristics, willingness to pay or the expected number of targets identified per person, were also elicited. We have identified several factors that may either pose a barrier or facilitate the adoption of NGS in the clinic. We believe acting upon these findings, for instance by organizing educational events, advocating new ways of evidence generation and steering towards the most cost-effective solution, will accelerate the route from bench-to-bedside. Moreover, due to the

  18. Structural safety assessment for FLNG-LNGC system during offloading operation scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Zhi-qiang; Zhang, Dong-wei; Zhao, Dong-ya; Chen, Gang

    2017-04-01

    The crashworthiness of the cargo containment systems (CCSs) of a floating liquid natural gas (FLNG) and the side structures in side-by-side offloading operations scenario are studied in this paper. An FLNG vessel is exposed to potential threats from collisions with a liquid natural gas carrier (LNGC) during the offloading operations, which has been confirmed by a model test of FLNG-LNGC side-by-side offloading operations. A nonlinear finite element code LS-DYNA is used to simulate the collision scenarios during the offloading operations. Finite element models of an FLNG vessel and an LNGC are established for the purpose of this study, including a detailed LNG cargo containment system in the FLNG side model. Based on the parameters obtained from the model test and potential dangerous accidents, typical collision scenarios are defined to conduct a comprehensive study. To evaluate the safety of the FLNG vessel, a limit state is proposed based on the structural responses of the LNG CCS. The different characteristics of the structural responses for the primary structural components, energy dissipation and collision forces are obtained for various scenarios. Deformation of the inner hull is found to have a great effect on the responses of the LNG CCS, with approximately 160 mm deformation corresponding to the limit state. Densely arranged web frames can absorb over 35% of the collision energy and be proved to greatly enhance the crashworthiness of the FLNG side structures.

  19. Attack Trees for Practical Security Assessment: Ranking of Attack Scenarios with ADTool 2.0

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gadyatskaya, Olga; Jhawar, Ravi; Kordy, P.T.; Lounis, Karim; Mauw, Sjouke; Trujillo-Rasua, Rolando

    2016-01-01

    In this tool demonstration paper we present the ADTool2.0: an open-source software tool for design, manipulation and analysis of attack trees. The tool supports ranking of attack scenarios based on quantitative attributes entered by the user; it is scriptable; and it incorporates attack trees with

  20. Methods for translating narrative scenarios into quantitative assessments of land use change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mallampalli, Varun Rao; Mavrommati, Georgia; Thompson, Jonathan; Duveneck, Matthew; Meyer, Spencer; Ligmann-Zielinska, Arika; Gottschalk Druschke, Caroline; Hychka, Kristen; Kenney, Melissa A.; Kok, Kasper; Borsuk, Mark E.

    2016-01-01

    In the land use and land cover (LULC) literature, narrative scenarios are qualitative descriptions of plausible futures associated with a combination of socio-economic, policy, technological, and climate changes. LULC models are then often used to translate these narrative descriptions into

  1. Developing and Assessing Alternative Land-Use Scenarios from the MOLAND Model: A Scenario-Based Impact Analysis Approach for the Evaluation of Rapid Rail Provisions and Urban Development in the Greater Dublin Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eda Ustaoglu

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available In this study, environmental sustainability implications of planned rail infrastructure investments on the urban form and development in the Greater Dublin Region (GDR have been analysed incorporating the scenario analysis approach. Various scenarios are developed using the MOLAND Model applications including: A baseline scenario incorporating a continuation of the present dispersed pattern of urban development and an alternative scenario with rail-oriented corridor development, under varying conditions of economic growth. An alternative scenario was also developed for the recessionary development case considering the prolonged recession in the GDR. Further explorations incorporating a Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA approach are developed to evaluate the sustainability implications of different land development scenarios in the Dublin Region. This is assisted by focussing on the impacts of rail investments on urban form and development as raised in the international comparative literature. The findings from the CBA assessment positively indicate that containment policies-as represented by the public transport oriented development indicate benefits over the dispersed development case by reducing the negative consequences of sprawl type of developments. In contrast, dispersed development in the baseline scenario indicates costs of continuation of such development patterns exceed the benefits in the long term. This study will contribute to policy support evaluation measures relating to the integration of scenario analysis tool with the CBA approach in assisting the evaluation of new transport infrastructure proposals.

  2. Assessing risks and uncertainties in forest dynamics under different management scenarios and climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthias Albert

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Background Forest management faces a climate induced shift in growth potential and increasing current and emerging new risks. Vulnerability analysis provides decision support based on projections of natural resources taking risks and uncertainties into account. In this paper we (1 characterize differences in forest dynamics under three management scenarios, (2 analyse the effects of the three scenarios on two risk factors, windthrow and drought stress, and (3 quantify the effects and the amount of uncertainty arising from climate projections on height increment and drought stress. Methods In four regions in northern Germany, we apply three contrasting management scenarios and project forest development under climate change until 2070. Three climate runs (minimum, median, maximum based on the emission scenario RCP 8.5 control the site-sensitive forest growth functions. The minimum and maximum climate run define the range of prospective climate development. Results The projections of different management regimes until 2070 show the diverging medium-term effects of thinnings and harvests and long-term effects of species conversion on a regional scale. Examples of windthrow vulnerability and drought stress reveal how adaptation measures depend on the applied management path and the decision-maker’s risk attitude. Uncertainty analysis shows the increasing variability of drought risk projections with time. The effect of climate projections on height growth are quantified and uncertainty analysis reveals that height growth of young trees is dominated by the age-trend whereas the climate signal in height increment of older trees is decisive. Conclusions Drought risk is a serious issue in the eastern regions independent of the applied silvicultural scenario, but adaptation measures are limited as the proportion of the most drought tolerant species Scots pine is already high. Windthrow risk is no serious overall threat in any region, but adequate

  3. The role of psychophysiology in forensic assessments: deception detection, ERPs, and virtual reality mock crime scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mertens, Ralf; Allen, John J B

    2008-03-01

    Few data are available to address whether the use of ERP-based deception detection alternatives have sufficient validity for applied use. The present study was designed to replicate and extend J. P. Rosenfeld, M. Soskins, G. Bosh, and A. Ryan's (2004) study by utilizing a virtual reality crime scenario to determine whether ERP-based procedures, including brain fingerprinting, can be rendered less effective by participant manipulation by employing a virtual reality crime scenario and multiple countermeasures. Bayesian and bootstrapping analytic approaches were used to classify individuals as guilty or innocent. Guilty subjects were detected significantly less frequently compared to previous studies; countermeasures further reduced the overall hit rates. Innocent participants remained protected from being falsely accused. Reaction times did not prove suitable for accurate classification. Results suggested that guilty verdicts from ERP-based deception detection approaches are likely to be accurate, but that innocent (or indeterminate) verdicts yield no useful interpretation in an applied setting.

  4. Generating social impact scenarios, a key step in making technology assessment studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, M. V.

    1972-01-01

    The social impact scenario, a method used to trace the effects of new technological applications, is discussed. The research seeks to anticipate the secondary social impacts that arise from: (1) government or private programs that cope with major social problems like poverty, environmental pollution, or public safety; and (2) a concerted national effort to achieve a widely supported specific goal like landing a man on the moon or finding a cure for cancer.

  5. Scenario based seismic hazard assessment and its application to the seismic verification of relevant buildings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romanelli, Fabio; Vaccari, Franco; Altin, Giorgio; Panza, Giuliano

    2016-04-01

    The procedure we developed, and applied to a few relevant cases, leads to the seismic verification of a building by: a) use of a scenario based neodeterministic approach (NDSHA) for the calculation of the seismic input, and b) control of the numerical modeling of an existing building, using free vibration measurements of the real structure. The key point of this approach is the strict collaboration, from the seismic input definition to the monitoring of the response of the building in the calculation phase, of the seismologist and the civil engineer. The vibrometry study allows the engineer to adjust the computational model in the direction suggested by the experimental result of a physical measurement. Once the model has been calibrated by vibrometric analysis, one can select in the design spectrum the proper range of periods of interest for the structure. Then, the realistic values of spectral acceleration, which include the appropriate amplification obtained through the modeling of a "scenario" input to be applied to the final model, can be selected. Generally, but not necessarily, the "scenario" spectra lead to higher accelerations than those deduced by taking the spectra from the national codes (i.e. NTC 2008, for Italy). The task of the verifier engineer is to act so that the solution of the verification is conservative and realistic. We show some examples of the application of the procedure to some relevant (e.g. schools) buildings of the Trieste Province. The adoption of the scenario input has given in most of the cases an increase of critical elements that have to be taken into account in the design of reinforcements. However, the higher cost associated with the increase of elements to reinforce is reasonable, especially considering the important reduction of the risk level.

  6. Regional and urban downscaling of global climate scenarios for health impact assessments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    San Jose, R.; Perez, J.L.; Perez, L.; Gonzalez, R.M.; Pecci, J.; Garzon, A.; Palacios, M.

    2015-07-01

    In this contribution we have used global climate RCP IPCC scenarios to produce climate and air pollution maps at regional (25 km resolution) and urban scale with 200 m spatial resolution over Europe and five European cities in order to investigate the impact on meteorological variables and pollutant concentrations . We have used the very well known mesoscale meeorological model WRF-Chem (NOAA, US). We have used 2011 as control past year and two RCP scenarios from CCSM global climate model with 4.5 W/m2 and 8.5 W/m2 for 2030, 2050 and 2100 years. After running WRF-Chem model, using the boundary conditions provided by RCP scenarios with the emissions of 2011, we have performed a detailed downscaling process using CALMET diagnostic model to obtain a full 200 m spatial resolution map of five European cities (London, Antwerp, Madrid, Milan, and Helsinki). We will show the results and the health impacts for future RCP IPCC climate scenarios in comparison with the 2011 control year information for climate and health indicators. Finnally, we have also investigated the impact of the aerosol effects in the short wave radiation mean value. Two simulations with the WRF-Chem model have been performed over Europe in 2010. A baseline simulation without any feedback effects and a second simulation including the direct effects affecting the solar radiation reaching the surface as well as the indirect aerosol effect with potential impacts on increasing or decreasing the precipitation rates. Aerosol effects produce an increase of incoming radiation over Atlantic Ocean (up to 70%) because the prescribed aerosol concentrations in the WRF-Chem without feedbacks is substantially higher than the aerosol concentrations produced when we activate the feedback effects. The decrease in solar radiation in the Sahara area (10%) is found to be produced because the prescribed aerosol concentration in the {sup n}o feedback{sup s}imulation is lower than when we activate the feedback effects. (Author)

  7. Regional and urban down scaling of global climate scenarios for health impact assessments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    San Jose, R.; Perez, J. L.; Perez, L.; Gonzalez, R. M.; Pecci, J.; Garzon, A.; Palacios, M.

    2015-07-01

    In this contribution we have used global climate RCP IPCC scenarios to produce climate and air pollution maps at regional (25 km resolution) and urban scale with 200 m spatial resolution over Europe and five European cities in order to investigate the impact on meteorological variables and pollutant concentrations . We have used the very well known mesoscale meteorological model WRF-Chem (NOAA, US). We have used 2011 as control past year and two RCP scenarios from CCSM global climate model with 4.5 W/m2 and 8.5 W/m2 for 2030, 2050 and 2100 years. After running WRF-Chem model, using the boundary conditions provided by RCP scenarios with the emissions of 2011, we have performed a detailed down scaling process using CALMET diagnostic model to obtain a full 200 m spatial resolution map of five European cities (London, Antwerp, Madrid, Milan, and Helsinki). We will show the results and the health impacts for future RCP IPCC climate scenarios in comparison with the 2011 control year information for climate and health indicators. Finally, we have also investigated the impact of the aerosol effects in the short wave radiation mean value. Two simulations with the WRF-Chem model have been performed over Europe in 2010. A baseline simulation without any feedback effects and a second simulation including the direct effects affecting the solar radiation reaching the surface as well as the indirect aerosol effect with potential impacts on increasing or decreasing the precipitation rates. Aerosol effects produce an increase of incoming radiation over Atlantic Ocean (up to 70%) because the prescribed aerosol concentrations in the WRF-Chem without feedbacks is substantially higher than the aerosol concentrations produced when we activate the feedback effects. The decrease in solar radiation in the Sahara area (10%) is found to be produced because the prescribed aerosol concentration in the no feedback simulation is lower than when we activate the feedback effects. (Author)

  8. Open Scenario Study, Phase I. Volume 1. Assessment Overview and Results

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-03-01

    Ebola Disease Alert Examine the means and approach in dealing with transit travelers suspected of carrying a deadly infection 1999 IDA Balkans...1996 High Travel and Tourism Scenario Depicts a Super SARS outbreak in U.S. and Europe coinciding with upcoming three critical economic...in crisis mitigation and management Ebola Istanbul Depicts the discovery of Ebola infected person intent on spreading the disease through human

  9. Assessing groundwater pollution hazard changes under different socio-economic and environmental scenarios in an agricultural watershed

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lima, M. Lourdes, E-mail: mlima@mdp.edu.ar [Instituto de Geología de Costas y del Cuaternario, FCEyN, Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata, Funes 3350, Nivel 1, 7600 Mar del Plata (Argentina); Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (CONICET) (Argentina); Romanelli, Asunción, E-mail: aromanel@mdp.edu.ar [Instituto de Geología de Costas y del Cuaternario, FCEyN, Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata, Funes 3350, Nivel 1, 7600 Mar del Plata (Argentina); Instituto de Investigaciones Marinas y Costeras (IIMyC), Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (CONICET) (Argentina); Massone, Héctor E., E-mail: hmassone@mdp.edu.ar [Instituto de Geología de Costas y del Cuaternario, FCEyN, Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata, Funes 3350, Nivel 1, 7600 Mar del Plata (Argentina)

    2015-10-15

    This paper proposes a modeling approach for assessing changes in groundwater pollution hazard under two different socio-economic and environmental scenarios: The first one considers an exponential growth of agriculture land-use (Relegated Sustainability), while the other deals with regional economic growth, taking into account, the restrictions put on natural resources use (Sustainability Reforms). The recent (2011) and forecasted (2030) groundwater pollution hazard is evaluated based on hydrogeological parameters and, the impact of land-use changes in the groundwater system, coupling together a land-use change model (Dyna-CLUE) with a groundwater flow model (MODFLOW), as inputs to a decision system support (EMDS). The Dulce Stream Watershed (Pampa Plain, Argentina) was chosen to test the usefulness and utility of this proposed method. It includes a high level of agricultural activities, significant local extraction of groundwater resources for drinking water and irrigation and extensive available data regarding aquifer features. The Relegated Sustainability Scenario showed a negative change in the aquifer system, increasing (+ 20%; high–very high classes) the contribution to groundwater pollution hazard throughout the watershed. On the other hand, the Sustainability Reforms Scenario displayed more balanced land-use changes with a trend towards sustainability, therefore proposing a more acceptable change in the aquifer system for 2030 with a possible 2% increase (high–very high classes) in groundwater pollution hazard. Results in the recent scenario (2011) showed that 54% of Dulce Stream Watershed still shows a moderate to a very low contribution to groundwater pollution hazard (mainly in the lower area). Therefore, from the point of view of natural resource management, this is a positive aspect, offering possibilities for intervention in order to prevent deterioration and protect this aquifer system. However, since it is quite possible that this aquifer status

  10. Biodiversity losses and conservation trade-offs: Assessing future urban growth scenarios for a North American trade corridor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villarreal, Miguel; Norman, Laura M.; Wallace, Cynthia S.A.; Boykin, Kenneth

    2013-01-01

    The Sonoran Desert and Apache Highlands ecoregions of North America are areas of exceptionally high plant and vertebrate biodiversity. However, much of the vertebrate biodiversity is supported by only a few vegetation types with limited distributions, some of which are increasingly threatened by changing land uses. We assessed the impacts of two future urban growth scenarios on biodiversity in a binational watershed in Arizona, USA and Sonora, Mexico. We quantified and mapped terrestrial vertebrate species richness using Wildlife Habitat Relation models and validated the results with data from National Park Service biological inventories. Future urban growth, based on historical trends, was projected to the year 2050 for 1) a “Current Trends” scenario and, 2) a “Megalopolis” scenario that represented a transnational growth corridor with open-space conservation attributes. Based on Current Trends, 45% of existing riparian woodland (267 of 451species), and 34% of semi-desert grasslands (215 of 451 species) will be lost, whereas, in the Megalopolis scenario, these types would decline by 44% and 24% respectively. Outcomes of the two models suggest a trade-off at the taxonomic class level: Current Trends would reduce and fragment mammal and herpetofauna habitat, while Megalopolis would result in loss of avian-rich riparian habitat.

  11. Climate change impact assessment on flow regime by incorporating spatial correlation and scenario uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vallam, P.; Qin, X. S.

    2017-07-01

    Flooding risk is increasing in many parts of the world and may worsen under climate change conditions. The accuracy of predicting flooding risk relies on reasonable projection of meteorological data (especially rainfall) at the local scale. The current statistical downscaling approaches face the difficulty of projecting multi-site climate information for future conditions while conserving spatial information. This study presents a combined Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG) stochastic weather generator and multi-site rainfall simulator RainSim (CLWRS) approach to investigate flow regimes under future conditions in the Kootenay Watershed, Canada. To understand the uncertainty effect stemming from different scenarios, the climate output is fed into a hydrologic model. The results showed different variation trends of annual peak flows (in 2080-2099) based on different climate change scenarios and demonstrated that the hydrological impact would be driven by the interaction between snowmelt and peak flows. The proposed CLWRS approach is useful where there is a need for projection of potential climate change scenarios.

  12. ICUD-0530 Scenario based risk assessment of the dispersion of E-coli from combined sewer overflow to a fresh-water lake

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Michael Robdrup; Thorndahl, Søren Liedtke; Nielsen, Jesper Ellerbæk

    2017-01-01

    A scenario based risk assessment method is used to evaluate how combined sewer overflow (CSO) affects a nearby bathing beach in Skanderborg, Denmark. The method combines an urban drainage model with a 3D CFD model to pre-simulate 60 different scenarios, used for assessing the risk of poor bathing...

  13. Reference Models for Structural Technology Assessment and Weight Estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cerro, Jeff; Martinovic, Zoran; Eldred, Lloyd

    2005-01-01

    Previously the Exploration Concepts Branch of NASA Langley Research Center has developed techniques for automating the preliminary design level of launch vehicle airframe structural analysis for purposes of enhancing historical regression based mass estimating relationships. This past work was useful and greatly reduced design time, however its application area was very narrow in terms of being able to handle a large variety in structural and vehicle general arrangement alternatives. Implementation of the analysis approach presented herein also incorporates some newly developed computer programs. Loft is a program developed to create analysis meshes and simultaneously define structural element design regions. A simple component defining ASCII file is read by Loft to begin the design process. HSLoad is a Visual Basic implementation of the HyperSizer Application Programming Interface, which automates the structural element design process. Details of these two programs and their use are explained in this paper. A feature which falls naturally out of the above analysis paradigm is the concept of "reference models". The flexibility of the FEA based JAVA processing procedures and associated process control classes coupled with the general utility of Loft and HSLoad make it possible to create generic program template files for analysis of components ranging from something as simple as a stiffened flat panel, to curved panels, fuselage and cryogenic tank components, flight control surfaces, wings, through full air and space vehicle general arrangements.

  14. PRESSCA: A regional operative Early Warning System for landslides risk scenario assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ponziani, Francesco; Stelluti, Marco; Berni, Nicola; Brocca, Luca; Moramarco, Tommaso

    2013-04-01

    The Italian national alert system for the hydraulic and hydrogeological risk is ensured by the National Civil Protection Department, through the "Functional Centres" Network, together with scientific/technical Support Centres, named "Competence Centres". The role of the Functional Centres is to alert regional/national civil protection network, to manage the prediction and the monitoring phases, thus ensuring the flow of data for the management of the emergency. The Umbria regional alerting procedure is based on three increasing warning levels of criticality for 6 sub-areas (~1200 km²). Specifically, for each duration (from 1 to 48 hours), three criticality levels are assigned to the rainfall values corresponding to a recurrence interval of 2, 5, and 10 years. In order to improve confidence on the daily work for hydrogeological risk assessment and management, a simple and operational early warning system for the prediction of shallow landslide triggering on regional scale was implemented. The system is primarily based on rainfall thresholds, which represent the main element of evaluation for the early-warning procedures of the Italian Civil Protection system. Following previous studies highlighting that soil moisture conditions play a key role on landslide triggering, a continuous physically-based soil water balance model was implemented for the estimation of soil moisture conditions over the whole regional territory. In fact, a decreasing trend between the cumulated rainfall values over 24, 36 and 48 hours and the soil moisture conditions prior to past landslide events was observed. This trend provides an easy-to-use tool to dynamically adjust the operational rainfall thresholds with the soil moisture conditions simulated by the soil water balance model prior to rainfall events. The application of this procedure allowed decreasing the uncertainties tied to the application of the rainfall thresholds only. The system is actually operational in real-time and it was

  15. Environmental assessment: Reference repository location, Hanford Site, Washington (US)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    none,

    1986-05-01

    This appendix responds to the issues raised by Federal, State, and local governments, affected Indian Tribes, private citizens, and other organizations on the draft environmental assessment (EA) that was prepared pursuant to Section 112 of the Nuclear Waste Policy Act of 1982. In addition to presenting the issues raised in the comments and the responses, it describes where changes were made in the final EA. 535 refs., 13 figs., 16 tabs.

  16. Proposed terms of reference : class environmental assessment for waterpower projects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2002-04-01

    Ontario's waterpower resources currently make up about 27 per cent of the province's energy supply, with an installed capacity of 8,150 MW. The remainder is comprised of 39 per cent nuclear, 32 per cent fossil fuels (coal, gas, and oil), and 2 per cent renewable energy sources such as solar and wind power. Of the 200 operating waterpower facilities in Ontario, two-thirds are located south of the French and Mattawa rivers. More than half of these were constructed before 1951. The waterpower facilities in Ontario range widely in capacity and energy production. Waterpower facilities consist of a main dam, a powerhouse, an auxiliary storage dam, an auxiliary block dam, penstock, tunnels, canals, weirs, aqueducts, spillways, electrical incorporation, and other auxiliary structures. A Class Environmental Assessment (EA) provides a planning process through which potential impacts can be assessed and addressed. Class EA streamlines the environmental assessment process by focusing on defined issues. The proposed waterpower Class EA will propose that undertaking be a process for the planning, designing, establishing, constructing, operating, expanding or retiring of waterpower facilities under 200 MW. 1 tab., 2 figs.

  17. A method for assessing carbon stocks, carbon sequestration, and greenhouse-gas fluxes in ecosystems of the United States under present conditions and future scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bergamaschi, Brian A.; Bernknopf, Richard; Clow, David; Dye, Dennis; Faulkner, Stephen; Forney, William; Gleason, Robert; Hawbaker, Todd; Liu, Jinxun; Liu, Shu-Guang; Prisley, Stephen; Reed, Bradley; Reeves, Matthew; Rollins, Matthew; Sleeter, Benjamin; Sohl, Terry; Stackpoole, Sarah; Stehman, Stephen; Striegl, Robert G.; Wein, Anne; Zhu, Zhi-Liang; Zhu, Zhi-Liang

    2010-01-01

    he Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA), Section 712, mandates the U.S. Department of the Interior to develop a methodology and conduct an assessment of the Nation’s ecosystems, focusing on carbon stocks, carbon sequestration, and emissions of three greenhouse gases (GHGs): carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide. The major requirements include (1) an assessment of all ecosystems (terrestrial systems, such as forests, croplands, wetlands, grasslands/shrublands; and aquatic ecosystems, such as rivers, lakes, and estuaries); (2) an estimate of the annual potential capacities of ecosystems to increase carbon sequestration and reduce net GHG emissions in the context of mitigation strategies (including management and restoration activities); and (3) an evaluation of the effects of controlling processes, such as climate change, land-use and land-cover change, and disturbances such as wildfires.The concepts of ecosystems, carbon pools, and GHG fluxes follow conventional definitions in use by major national and international assessment or inventory efforts. In order to estimate current ecosystem carbon stocks and GHG fluxes and to understand the potential capacity and effects of mitigation strategies, the method will use two time periods for the assessment: 2001 through 2010, which establishes a current ecosystem carbon and GHG baseline and will be used to validate the models; and 2011 through 2050, which will be used to assess potential capacities based on a set of scenarios. The scenario framework will be constructed using storylines of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES), along with both reference and enhanced land-use and land-cover (LULC) and land-management parameters. Additional LULC and land-management mitigation scenarios will be constructed for each storyline to increase carbon sequestration and reduce GHG fluxes in ecosystems. Input from regional experts and stakeholders will be

  18. Vulnerabilities to agricultural production shocks: An extreme, plausible scenario for assessment of risk for the insurance sector

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tobias Lunt

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate risks pose a threat to the function of the global food system and therefore also a hazard to the global financial sector, the stability of governments, and the food security and health of the world’s population. This paper presents a method to assess plausible impacts of an agricultural production shock and potential materiality for global insurers. A hypothetical, near-term, plausible, extreme scenario was developed based upon modules of historical agricultural production shocks, linked under a warm phase El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO meteorological framework. The scenario included teleconnected floods and droughts in disparate agricultural production regions around the world, as well as plausible, extreme biotic shocks. In this scenario, global crop yield declines of 10% for maize, 11% for soy, 7% for wheat and 7% for rice result in quadrupled commodity prices and commodity stock fluctuations, civil unrest, significant negative humanitarian consequences and major financial losses worldwide. This work illustrates a need for the scientific community to partner across sectors and industries towards better-integrated global data, modeling and analytical capacities, to better respond to and prepare for concurrent agricultural failure. Governments, humanitarian organizations and the private sector collectively may recognize significant benefits from more systematic assessment of exposure to agricultural climate risk.

  19. Assessment of future agricultural conditions in southwestern Africa using fuzzy logic and high-resolution climate model scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Weinzierl, Thomas

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is expected to have a major impact on the arid savanna regions of southwestern Africa, such as the Okavango Basin. Precipitation is a major constraint for agriculture in countries like Namibia and Botswana and assessments of future crop growth conditions are in high demand. This GIS-based approach uses reanalysis data and climate model output for two scenarios and compares them to the precipitation requirements of the five most important crops grown in the region: maize, pearl millet, sorghum, cassava and cow pea. It also takes into account the dominant soil types, as plant growth is also limited by nutrient-poor soils with unfavorable physical and chemical properties. The two factors are then combined using a fuzzy logic algorithm. The assessment visualizes the expected shifts in suitable zones and identifies areas where farming without irrigation may experience a decline in yields or may even no longer be possible at the end of the 21st century. The results show that pearl millet is the most suitable crop in all scenarios while especially the cultivation of maize, sorghum and cow pea may be affected by a possible reduction of precipitation under the high-emission scenario.

  20. Children and adults exposed to electromagnetic fields at the ICNIRP reference levels: theoretical assessment of the induced peak temperature increase.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bakker, J F; Paulides, M M; Neufeld, E; Christ, A; Kuster, N; van Rhoon, G C

    2011-08-07

    To avoid potentially adverse health effects of electromagnetic fields (EMF), the International Commission on Non-Ionizing Radiation Protection (ICNIRP) has defined EMF reference levels. Restrictions on induced whole-body-averaged specific absorption rate (SAR(wb)) are provided to keep the whole-body temperature increase (T(body, incr)) under 1 °C during 30 min. Additional restrictions on the peak 10 g spatial-averaged SAR (SAR(10g)) are provided to prevent excessive localized tissue heating. The objective of this study is to assess the localized peak temperature increase (T(incr, max)) in children upon exposure at the reference levels. Finite-difference time-domain modeling was used to calculate T(incr, max) in six children and two adults exposed to orthogonal plane-wave configurations. We performed a sensitivity study and Monte Carlo analysis to assess the uncertainty of the results. Considering the uncertainties in the model parameters, we found that a peak temperature increase as high as 1 °C can occur for worst-case scenarios at the ICNIRP reference levels. Since the guidelines are deduced from temperature increase, we used T(incr, max) as being a better metric to prevent excessive localized tissue heating instead of localized peak SAR. However, we note that the exposure time should also be considered in future guidelines. Hence, we advise defining limits on T(incr, max) for specified durations of exposure.

  1. Children and adults exposed to electromagnetic fields at the ICNIRP reference levels: theoretical assessment of the induced peak temperature increase

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bakker, J. F.; Paulides, M. M.; Neufeld, E.; Christ, A.; Kuster, N.; van Rhoon, G. C.

    2011-08-01

    To avoid potentially adverse health effects of electromagnetic fields (EMF), the International Commission on Non-Ionizing Radiation Protection (ICNIRP) has defined EMF reference levels. Restrictions on induced whole-body-averaged specific absorption rate (SARwb) are provided to keep the whole-body temperature increase (Tbody, incr) under 1 °C during 30 min. Additional restrictions on the peak 10 g spatial-averaged SAR (SAR10g) are provided to prevent excessive localized tissue heating. The objective of this study is to assess the localized peak temperature increase (Tincr, max) in children upon exposure at the reference levels. Finite-difference time-domain modeling was used to calculate Tincr, max in six children and two adults exposed to orthogonal plane-wave configurations. We performed a sensitivity study and Monte Carlo analysis to assess the uncertainty of the results. Considering the uncertainties in the model parameters, we found that a peak temperature increase as high as 1 °C can occur for worst-case scenarios at the ICNIRP reference levels. Since the guidelines are deduced from temperature increase, we used Tincr, max as being a better metric to prevent excessive localized tissue heating instead of localized peak SAR. However, we note that the exposure time should also be considered in future guidelines. Hence, we advise defining limits on Tincr, max for specified durations of exposure.

  2. Children and adults exposed to electromagnetic fields at the ICNIRP reference levels: theoretical assessment of the induced peak temperature increase

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bakker, J F; Paulides, M M; Van Rhoon, G C [Erasmus MC-Daniel den Hoed Cancer Center, Department of Radiation Oncology, Section Hyperthermia, PO Box 5201, NL-3008 AE, Rotterdam (Netherlands); Neufeld, E; Christ, A; Kuster, N, E-mail: j.bakker@erasmusmc.nl [Foundation for Research on Information Technologies in Society (IT' IS) (Switzerland)

    2011-08-07

    To avoid potentially adverse health effects of electromagnetic fields (EMF), the International Commission on Non-Ionizing Radiation Protection (ICNIRP) has defined EMF reference levels. Restrictions on induced whole-body-averaged specific absorption rate (SAR{sub wb}) are provided to keep the whole-body temperature increase (T{sub body,incr}) under 1 deg. C during 30 min. Additional restrictions on the peak 10 g spatial-averaged SAR (SAR{sub 10g}) are provided to prevent excessive localized tissue heating. The objective of this study is to assess the localized peak temperature increase (T{sub incr,max}) in children upon exposure at the reference levels. Finite-difference time-domain modeling was used to calculate T{sub incr,max} in six children and two adults exposed to orthogonal plane-wave configurations. We performed a sensitivity study and Monte Carlo analysis to assess the uncertainty of the results. Considering the uncertainties in the model parameters, we found that a peak temperature increase as high as 1 deg. C can occur for worst-case scenarios at the ICNIRP reference levels. Since the guidelines are deduced from temperature increase, we used T{sub incr,max} as being a better metric to prevent excessive localized tissue heating instead of localized peak SAR. However, we note that the exposure time should also be considered in future guidelines. Hence, we advise defining limits on T{sub incr,max} for specified durations of exposure.

  3. How to manage uncertainty in future Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) scenarios addressing the effect of climate change in crop production

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Niero, Monia; Ingvordsen, Cathrine Heinz; Bagger Jørgensen, Rikke

    2015-01-01

    When Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is used to provide insights on how to pursue future food demand, it faces the challenge to describe scenarios of the future in which the environmental impacts occur. In the case of future crop production, the effects of climate change should be considered....... In this context, the objectives of this paper are two-fold: (i) to recommend an approach to deal with uncertainty in scenario analysis for LCA of crop production in a changed climate, when the goal of the study is to suggest strategies for adaptation of crop cultivation practices towards low environmental impacts......, and (ii) to implement the suggested approach to spring barley cultivation in Denmark. First, the main implications of climate change for future crop cultivation are analyzed, and the factors which should be included when modeling the climate change effects on crops through LCA are introduced, namely...

  4. Assessing Land Use-Cover Changes and Modelling Change Scenarios in Two Mountain Spanish National Parks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Javier Martínez-Vega

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Land Use-Cover Changes (LUCCs are one of the main problems for the preservation of biodiversity. Protected Areas (PAs do not escape this threat. Some processes, such as intensive recreational use, forest fires or the expansion of artificial areas taking place inside and around them in response to their appeal, question their environmental sustainability and their efficiency. In this paper, we analyze the LUCCs that took place between 1990 and 2006 in two National Parks (NPs belonging to the Spanish network and in their surroundings: Ordesa and Monte Perdido (Ordesa NP and Sierra de Guadarrama (Guadarrama NP. We also simulate land use changes between 2006 and 2030 by means of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs, taking into account two scenarios: trend and green. Finally, we perform a multi-temporal analysis of natural habitat fragmentation in each NP. The results show that the NPs analyzed are well-preserved and have seen hardly any significant LUCCs inside them. However, Socioeconomic Influence Zones (SIZs and buffers are subject to different dynamics. In the SIZ and buffer of the Ordesa NP, there has been an expansion of built-up areas (annual rate of change = +1.19 around small urban hubs and ski resorts. There has also been a gradual recovery of natural areas, which had been interrupted by forest fires. The invasion of sub-alpine grasslands by shrubs is clear (+2735 ha. The SIZ and buffer of the Guadarrama NP are subject to urban sprawl in forest areas and to the construction of road infrastructures (+5549 ha and an annual rate of change = +1.20. Industrial area has multiplied by 3.3 in 20 years. The consequences are an increase in the Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI, greater risk of forest fires and greater fragmentation of natural habitats (+0.04 in SIZ. In the change scenarios, if conditions change as expected, the specific threats facing each NP can be expected to increase. There are substantial differences between the scenarios depending on

  5. Scenario details of NPE 2012 - Independent performance assessment by simulated CTBT violation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gestermann, N.; Bönnemann, C.; Ceranna, L.; Ross, O.; Schlosser, C.

    2012-04-01

    The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) was opened for signature on 24 September 1996. The technical preparations for monitoring CTBT compliance are moving ahead rapidly and many efforts have been made since then to establish the verification system. In that regard the two underground nuclear explosions conducted by the Democratic People's Republic of Korea 2006 and 2009 were the first real performance tests of the system. In the light of these events National Data Centres (NDCs) realized the need of getting more familiar with the verification regime details. The idea of an independent annual exercise to evaluate the processing and analysis procedures applied at the National Data Centres of the CTBT was born at the NDC Evaluation Workshop in Kiev, Ukraine, 2006. The exercises should simulate a fictitious violation of the CTBT and all NDCs are invited to clarify the nature of the selected event. This exercise should help to evaluate the effectiveness of procedures applied at NDCs, as well as the quality, completeness, and usefulness of IDC products. Moreover, the National Data Centres Preparedness Exercise (NPE) is a measure for the readiness of the NDCs to fulfill their duties in regard of the CTBT verification, the treaty compliance based judgments about the nature of events as natural or artificial and chemical or nuclear, respectively. NPEs proved to be an efficient indicative tool for testing the performance of the verification system and its elements. In 2007 and 2008 the exercise were focused on seismic waveform data analysis. Since 2009 the analysis of infrasound data was included and additional attention was attached to the radionuclide component. In 2010 a realistic noble gas release scenario was selected as the trigger event which could be expected after an underground nuclear test. The epicenter location of an event from the Reviewed Event Bulletin (REB), unknown for participants of the exercise, was selected as the source of the noble gas

  6. On the need for bias correction in regional climate scenarios to assess climate change impacts on river runoff

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. J. Muerth

    2013-03-01

    of uncertainty. If not, the application of bias correction methods is either unnecessary to obtain the change signal in hydro-climatic projections, or safe to use for the production of present and future river runoff scenarios as it does not alter the change signal. The results of the present paper highlight the analysis of daily runoff simulated with four different hydrological models in two natural-flow catchments, driven by different regional climate models for a reference and a future period. As expected, bias correction of climate model outputs is important for the reproduction of the runoff regime of the past, regardless of the hydrological model used. Then again, its impact on the relative change of flow indicators between reference and future periods is weak for most indicators, with the exception of the timing of the spring flood peak. Still, our results indicate that the impact of bias correction on runoff indicators increases with bias in the climate simulations.

  7. Life Cycle Assessment of Biogas Production from Marine Macroalgae: a Latvian Scenario

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Pilicka, Iluta; Blumberga, Dagnija; Romagnoli, Francesco

    2011-01-01

    ... (rich in potassium, phosphate and nitrogen based compounds) as a nutrients. The aim of the research is to assess the impact of biogas production and the final use in a cogeneration unit system from a Life Cycle Assessment (LCA...

  8. 77 FR 48107 - Workshop on Performance Assessments of Near-Surface Disposal Facilities: FEPs Analysis, Scenario...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-08-13

    ...; ] NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION 10 CFR Part 61 RIN-3150-AI92 Workshop on Performance Assessments of Near... Commission (NRC or the Commission) plans to conduct a workshop on performance assessments of near-surface low... on three aspects of a performance assessment: (1) Features, Events, and Processes (FEPs) analysis, (2...

  9. NPE 2010 results - Independent performance assessment by simulated CTBT violation scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ross, O.; Bönnemann, C.; Ceranna, L.; Gestermann, N.; Hartmann, G.; Plenefisch, T.

    2012-04-01

    For verification of compliance to the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) the global International Monitoring System (IMS) is currently being built up. The IMS is designed to detect nuclear explosions through their seismic, hydroacoustic, infrasound, and radionuclide signature. The IMS data are collected, processed to analysis products, and distributed to the state signatories by the International Data Centre (IDC) in Vienna. The state signatories themselves may operate National Data Centers (NDC) giving technical advice concerning CTBT verification to the government. NDC Preparedness Exercises (NPE) are regularly performed to practice the verification procedures for the detection of nuclear explosions in the framework of CTBT monitoring. The initial focus of the NPE 2010 was on the component of radionuclide detections and the application of Atmospheric Transport Modeling (ATM) for defining the source region of a radionuclide event. The exercise was triggered by fictitious radioactive noble gas detections which were calculated beforehand secretly by forward ATM for a hypothetical xenon release scenario starting at location and time of a real seismic event. The task for the exercise participants was to find potential source events by atmospheric backtracking and to analyze in the following promising candidate events concerning their waveform signals. The study shows one possible way of solution for NPE 2010 as it was performed at German NDC by a team without precedent knowledge of the selected event and release scenario. The ATM Source Receptor Sensitivity (SRS) fields as provided by the IDC were evaluated in a logical approach in order to define probable source regions for several days before the first reported fictitious radioactive xenon finding. Additional information on likely event times was derived from xenon isotopic ratios where applicable. Of the considered seismic events in the potential source region all except one could be identified as

  10. Assessing nitrate leaching losses with simulation scenarios and model based fertiliser recommendations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michalczyk, A.; Kersebaum, K. C.; Hartmann, T.; Yue, S. C.; Chen, X. P.

    2012-04-01

    Excessive mineral nitrogen fertiliser application and irrigation in intensive agricultural cropping systems is seen as a major reason for low water and nitrogen use efficiencies in the North China Plain. High nitrogen fertiliser and irrigation water inputs do not only lead to higher production costs but also to decreasing ground water tables, nitrate accumulation in deeper soil layers below the root zone and water pollution. To evaluate the effects of improved management practices on environmental pollution risk, the HERMES model is used to simulate nitrate leaching losses. The HERMES model is a dynamic, process based crop model made for practical applications such as fertiliser recommendations. The model was tested and validated on two field studies in the south of the Hebei Province that lasted for about three years with a winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and summer maize (Zea mays L.) double cropping system. Biomass, grain yield, plant N uptake and soil water content were better simulated than mineral nitrogen in the soil. A model based nitrogen fertiliser recommendation was applied in the field for one wheat crop. The parallel model simulation showed satisfying results. Although there was no change in the amount of irrigation, the results indicated a possibility to reduce the fertiliser rate and thus nitrogen leaching even more than in the reduced treatment without reducing crop yields. Further more a simulation scenario with a model based fertiliser recommendation and a field capacity based irrigation was compared to farmers practice and reduced nitrogen treatment. The scenario results showed that the model recommendation together with the reduced irrigation has the highest potential to reduce nitrate leaching. The results also showed that flood irrigation as practiced by the farmers and its difficult to estimate amounts of water bears a big uncertainty for modelling.

  11. Tsunami scenarios and hazard assessment along the northern coast of Haiti

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gailler, A.; Calais, E.; Hébert, H.; Roy, C.; Okal, E.

    2015-12-01

    The northeastern Caribbean island arc, which materializes the boundary between the North American and Caribbean plates, is particularly exposed to large earthquakes and tsunamis. The low level of preparedness of a large part of its population and the lack of risk reduction provisions in public policies in many countries of the region put their population and economy at high risk in case of large telluric events. Here, we investigate the impact of three possible earthquake scenarios, consistent with the regional seismotectonic setting, on northern Haiti through inundation by tsunami waves. These scenarios simulate the effect of a M8.0 earthquake on the Septentrional strike-slip fault (possibly similar to the 1842 earthquake), a M8.1 earthquake on the offshore thrust fault system north of Haiti, and an earthquake rupturing a large portion of the offshore thrust fault system north of Haiti and the Dominican Republic. We calculate run-up heights along the northern coast of Haiti, in particular in the densely populated Cap Haitien. We find that the rupture of the offshore North Hispaniola thrust fault could result in wave heights up to 10 m with inundation up to 4 km inland, with only 10-15 min between ground shaking and the first wave arrivals. The city of Cap Haitien is particularly exposed, with potential flooding of most of the city and its suburbs, including the international airport. We also find that the historical reports available for the 1842 earthquake, when compared to our simulations, favor a rupture of the North Hispaniola thrust fault, although much uncertainty remains. If the 1842 earthquake did not rupture the Septentional fault offshore Haiti, then it is currently capable of at least a Mw7.7 earthquake, significantly larger than previously thought. The simulations presented here provide a basis for developing conservative maps of run-up heights that can be transferred, with added factors of safety, into practical implementation for tsunami preparedness

  12. An integrated monitoring approach using multiple reference sites to assess sustainable restoration in coastal Louisiana

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregory D. Steyer; Robert R. Twilley; Richard C. Raynie

    2006-01-01

    Achieving sustainable resource management in coastal Louisiana requires establishing reference conditions that incorporate the goals and objectives of restoration efforts. Since the reference condition is usually considered sustainable, it can be a gauge to assess the present condition of a (degraded) system or to evaluate progress of management actions toward some...

  13. Assessing groundwater pollution hazard changes under different socio-economic and environmental scenarios in an agricultural watershed.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lima, M Lourdes; Romanelli, Asunción; Massone, Héctor E

    2015-10-15

    This paper proposes a modeling approach for assessing changes in groundwater pollution hazard under two different socio-economic and environmental scenarios: The first one considers an exponential growth of agriculture land-use (Relegated Sustainability), while the other deals with regional economic growth, taking into account, the restrictions put on natural resources use (Sustainability Reforms). The recent (2011) and forecasted (2030) groundwater pollution hazard is evaluated based on hydrogeological parameters and, the impact of land-use changes in the groundwater system, coupling together a land-use change model (Dyna-CLUE) with a groundwater flow model (MODFLOW), as inputs to a decision system support (EMDS). The Dulce Stream Watershed (Pampa Plain, Argentina) was chosen to test the usefulness and utility of this proposed method. It includes a high level of agricultural activities, significant local extraction of groundwater resources for drinking water and irrigation and extensive available data regarding aquifer features. The Relegated Sustainability Scenario showed a negative change in the aquifer system, increasing (+20%; high-very high classes) the contribution to groundwater pollution hazard throughout the watershed. On the other hand, the Sustainability Reforms Scenario displayed more balanced land-use changes with a trend towards sustainability, therefore proposing a more acceptable change in the aquifer system for 2030 with a possible 2% increase (high-very high classes) in groundwater pollution hazard. Results in the recent scenario (2011) showed that 54% of Dulce Stream Watershed still shows a moderate to a very low contribution to groundwater pollution hazard (mainly in the lower area). Therefore, from the point of view of natural resource management, this is a positive aspect, offering possibilities for intervention in order to prevent deterioration and protect this aquifer system. However, since it is quite possible that this aquifer status (i

  14. Proposals for enhanced health risk assessment and stratification in an integrated care scenario

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Duenas-Espin, Ivan; Vela, Emili; Pauws, Steffen; Bescos, Cristina; Cano, Isaac; Cleries, Montserrat; Carles Contel, Joan; de Manuel Keenoy, Esteban; Garcia-Aymerich, Judith; Gomez-Cabrero, David; Kaye, Rachelle; Lahr, Maarten M. H.; Lluch-Ariet, Magi; Moharra, Montserrat; Monterde, David; Mora, Joana; Nalin, Marco; Pavlickova, Andrea; Piera, Jordi; Ponce, Sara; Santaeugenia, Sebastia; Schonenberg, Helen; Stoerk, Stefan; Tegner, Jesper; Velickovski, Filip; Westerteicher, Christoph; Roca, Josep

    2016-01-01

    Objectives: Population-based health risk assessment and stratification are considered highly relevant for large-scale implementation of integrated care by facilitating services design and case identification. The principal objective of the study was to analyse five health-risk assessment strategies

  15. The role of indicators in assessing transport policies: an application to European transport scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rienstra, Sytze A.; Stead, Dominic

    1997-01-01

    Indicators play an important role in the strategic assessment of policy packages. In this paper the role of indicators in assessing transport policiesis examined. As case study, the European Common Transport Policy (CTP) is used. Its three main objectives may be summarized as

  16. Energy assessment of second generation (2G) ethanol production from wheat straw in Indian scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mishra, Archana; Kumar, Akash; Ghosh, Sanjoy

    2018-03-01

    Impact of second-generation ethanol (2G) use in transportation sector mainly depends upon energy efficiency of entire production process. The objective of present study was to determine energy efficiency of a potential lignocellulosic feedstock; wheat straw and its conversion into cellulosic ethanol in Indian scenario. Energy efficiency was determined by calculating Net energy ratio (NER), i.e. ratio of output energy obtained by ethanol and input energy used in ethanol production. Energy consumption and generation at each step is calculated briefly (11,837.35 MJ/ha during Indian dwarf irrigated variety of wheat crop production and 7.1148 MJ/kg straw during ethanol production stage). Total energy consumption is calculated as 8.2988 MJ/kg straw whereas energy generation from ethanol is 15.082 MJ/kg straw; resulting into NER > 1. Major portion of agricultural energy input is contributed by diesel and fertilisers whereas refining process of wheat straw feedstock to ethanol and by-products require mainly in the form of steam and electricity. On an average, 1671.8 kg water free ethanol, 930 kg lignin rich biomass (for combustion), and 561 kg C5-molasses (for fodder) per hectare are produced. Findings of this study, net energy ratio (1.81) and figure of merit (14.8028 MJ/nil kg carbon) proves wheat straw as highest energy efficient lignocellulosic feedstock for the country.

  17. Serviceability Assessment for Cascading Failures in Water Distribution Network under Seismic Scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qing Shuang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The stability of water service is a hot point in industrial production, public safety, and academic research. The paper establishes a service evaluation model for the water distribution network (WDN. The serviceability is measured in three aspects: (1 the functionality of structural components under disaster environment; (2 the recognition of cascading failure process; and (3 the calculation of system reliability. The node and edge failures in WDN are interrelated under seismic excitations. The cascading failure process is provided with the balance of water supply and demand. The matrix-based system reliability (MSR method is used to represent the system events and calculate the nonfailure probability. An example is used to illustrate the proposed method. The cascading failure processes with different node failures are simulated. The serviceability is analyzed. The critical node can be identified. The result shows that the aged network has a greater influence on the system service under seismic scenario. The maintenance could improve the antidisaster ability of WDN. Priority should be given to controlling the time between the initial failure and the first secondary failure, for taking postdisaster emergency measures within this time period can largely cut down the spread of cascade effect in the whole WDN.

  18. Improving NPP availability using thermalhydraulic integral plant models. Assessment and application of turbine run back scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Reventos, F. [ANACNV, l' Hospitalet de l' Infant, Tarragona (Spain)]|[Technical University of Catalonia, UPC (Spain); Llopis, C.; Pretel, C. [Technical University of Catalonia, UPC (Spain); Posada, J.M.; Moreno, P. [Pablo Moreno S.A. (Spain)

    2001-07-01

    ANAV is the utility responsible of Asco and Vandellos Nuclear Power Plants, a two-unit and a single unit 1000 MW PWR plant, respectively. Both plants, Asco and Vandellos, are in normal operation since 1983 and 1987 and have undergone different important improvements like: steam generators and turbine substitution, power up-rating... Best estimate simulation by means of the thermal-hydraulic integral models of operating nuclear power plants are today impressively helpful for utilities in their purpose of improving availability and keeping safety level. ANAV is currently using Relap5/mod3.2 models of both plants for different purposes related to safety, operation, engineering and training. Turbine run-back system is designed to avoid reactor trips, and it does so in the existing plants, when the key parameters are correctly adjusted. The fine adjustment of such parameters was traditionally performed following the results of control simulators. Such simulators used a fully developed set of control equations and a quite simplified thermal-hydraulic feed-back. Boundary scenarios were considered in order to overcome the difficulties generated by simplification. (author)

  19. Scenario Centered Curriculum Assessment Based on the Technological Profile of the Student

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David FONSECA ESCUDERO

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This article presents the results and the degree of student satisfaction obtained in the usability testing of the Scenario Centered Curriculum (SCC method, with a specific focus on the technological profile of each group of students. The method was incorporated into a Digital Marketing course which was taught in three Vocation Training Schools in Spain, Italy and France. The schools involved, together with seven other members, form part of a consortium created to promote the development of the Learning4Work Project (L4W, as part of the Erasmus+ program of the European Community. The aim of this project is to verify whether the active learning metidos applied to Vocational Training environments improve student motivation and performance and bring about significant improvement in the workplace. The preliminary results obtained indicate a need to adapt the contents to the specific professional area of each school in order to improve the results, as it appears that without a contextualization phase, students do not fully appreciate the potential advantages of the method.

  20. A metric space for Type Ia supernova spectra: a new method to assess explosion scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sasdelli, Michele; Hillebrandt, W.; Kromer, M.; Ishida, E. E. O.; Röpke, F. K.; Sim, S. A.; Pakmor, R.; Seitenzahl, I. R.; Fink, M.

    2017-04-01

    Over the past years, Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) have become a major tool to determine the expansion history of the Universe, and considerable attention has been given to, both, observations and models of these events. However, until now, their progenitors are not known. The observed diversity of light curves and spectra seems to point at different progenitor channels and explosion mechanisms. Here, we present a new way to compare model predictions with observations in a systematic way. Our method is based on the construction of a metric space for SN Ia spectra by means of linear principal component analysis, taking care of missing and/or noisy data, and making use of partial least-squares regression to find correlations between spectral properties and photometric data. We investigate realizations of the three major classes of explosion models that are presently discussed: delayed-detonation Chandrasekhar-mass explosions, sub-Chandrasekhar-mass detonations and double-degenerate mergers, and compare them with data. We show that in the principal component space, all scenarios have observed counterparts, supporting the idea that different progenitors are likely. However, all classes of models face problems in reproducing the observed correlations between spectral properties and light curves and colours. Possible reasons are briefly discussed.

  1. An integrated assessment of energy-water nexus at the state level in the United States: Projections and analyses under different scenarios through 2095

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, L.; Patel, P. L.; Hejazi, M. I.; Kyle, P.; Davies, E. G.; Zhou, Y.; Clarke, L.; Edmonds, J.

    2013-12-01

    Water withdrawals for thermoelectric power plants account for approximately half of the total water use in the United States. With growing electricity demands in the future and limited water supplies in many water-scarce states in the U.S., grasping the trade-off between energy and water requires an integrated modeling approach that can capture the interactions among energy, water availability, climate, technology, and economic factors at various scales. In this study, the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), a technologically-detailed integrated model of the economy, energy, agriculture and land use, water, and climate systems, with 14 geopolitical regions that are further dissaggregated into up to 18 agro-ecological zones, was extended to model the electricity and water systems at the state level in the U.S. More specifically, GCAM was employed to estimate future state-level electricity generation and demands, and the associated water withdrawals and consumptions under a set of six scenarios with extensive levels of details on generation fuel portfolio, cooling technology mix, and water use intensities. The state-level estimates were compared against available inventories where good agreement was achieved on national and regional levels. We then explored the electric-sector water use up to 2095, focusing on implications from: 1) socioeconomics and growing demands, 2) the adoption of climate mitigation policy (e.g., RCP4.5 W/m2 vs. a reference scenario), 3) the transition of cooling systems, 4) constraints on electricity trading across states (full trading vs. limited trading), and 5) the adoption of water saving technologies. Overall, the fast retirement of once-through cooling, together with the gradual transition from fossil fuels dominant to a mixture of different fuels, accelerate the decline of water withdrawals and correspondingly compensate consumptive water use. Results reveal that U.S. electricity generation expands significantly as population grows

  2. Validation of a scenario-based assessment of critical thinking using an externally validated tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buur, Jennifer L; Schmidt, Peggy; Smylie, Dean; Irizarry, Kris; Crocker, Carlos; Tyler, John; Barr, Margaret

    2012-01-01

    With medical education transitioning from knowledge-based curricula to competency-based curricula, critical thinking skills have emerged as a major competency. While there are validated external instruments for assessing critical thinking, many educators have created their own custom assessments of critical thinking. However, the face validity of these assessments has not been challenged. The purpose of this study was to compare results from a custom assessment of critical thinking with the results from a validated external instrument of critical thinking. Students from the College of Veterinary Medicine at Western University of Health Sciences were administered a custom assessment of critical thinking (ACT) examination and the externally validated instrument, California Critical Thinking Skills Test (CCTST), in the spring of 2011. Total scores and sub-scores from each exam were analyzed for significant correlations using Pearson correlation coefficients. Significant correlations between ACT Blooms 2 and deductive reasoning and total ACT score and deductive reasoning were demonstrated with correlation coefficients of 0.24 and 0.22, respectively. No other statistically significant correlations were found. The lack of significant correlation between the two examinations illustrates the need in medical education to externally validate internal custom assessments. Ultimately, the development and validation of custom assessments of non-knowledge-based competencies will produce higher quality medical professionals.

  3. Life cycle assessment of integrated waste management systems for alternative legacy scenarios of the London Olympic Park

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Parkes, Olga, E-mail: o.parkes@ucl.ac.uk; Lettieri, Paola, E-mail: p.lettieri@ucl.ac.uk; Bogle, I. David L.

    2015-06-15

    Highlights: • Application of LCA in planning integrated waste management systems. • Environmental valuation of 3 legacy scenarios for the Olympic Park. • Hot-spot analysis highlights the importance of energy and materials recovery. • Most environmental savings are achieved through materials recycling. • Sensitivity analysis shows importance of waste composition and recycling rates. - Abstract: This paper presents the results of the life cycle assessment (LCA) of 10 integrated waste management systems (IWMSs) for 3 potential post-event site design scenarios of the London Olympic Park. The aim of the LCA study is to evaluate direct and indirect emissions resulting from various treatment options of municipal solid waste (MSW) annually generated on site together with avoided emissions resulting from energy, materials and nutrients recovery. IWMSs are modelled using GaBi v6.0 Product Sustainability software and results are presented based on the CML (v.Nov-10) characterisation method. The results show that IWMSs with advanced thermal treatment (ATT) and incineration with energy recovery have the lowest Global Warming Potential (GWP) than IWMSs where landfill is the primary waste treatment process. This is due to higher direct emissions and lower avoided emissions from the landfill process compared to the emissions from the thermal treatment processes. LCA results demonstrate that significant environmental savings are achieved through substitution of virgin materials with recycled ones. The results of the sensitivity analysis carried out for IWMS 1 shows that increasing recycling rate by 5%, 10% and 15% compared to the baseline scenario can reduce GWP by 8%, 17% and 25% respectively. Sensitivity analysis also shows how changes in waste composition affect the overall result of the system. The outcomes of such assessments provide decision-makers with fundamental information regarding the environmental impacts of different waste treatment options necessary for

  4. Integrated life-cycle assessment of electricity-supply scenarios confirms global environmental benefit of low-carbon technologies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hertwich, Edgar G; Gibon, Thomas; Bouman, Evert A; Arvesen, Anders; Suh, Sangwon; Heath, Garvin A; Bergesen, Joseph D; Ramirez, Andrea; Vega, Mabel I; Shi, Lei

    2015-05-19

    Decarbonization of electricity generation can support climate-change mitigation and presents an opportunity to address pollution resulting from fossil-fuel combustion. Generally, renewable technologies require higher initial investments in infrastructure than fossil-based power systems. To assess the tradeoffs of increased up-front emissions and reduced operational emissions, we present, to our knowledge, the first global, integrated life-cycle assessment (LCA) of long-term, wide-scale implementation of electricity generation from renewable sources (i.e., photovoltaic and solar thermal, wind, and hydropower) and of carbon dioxide capture and storage for fossil power generation. We compare emissions causing particulate matter exposure, freshwater ecotoxicity, freshwater eutrophication, and climate change for the climate-change-mitigation (BLUE Map) and business-as-usual (Baseline) scenarios of the International Energy Agency up to 2050. We use a vintage stock model to conduct an LCA of newly installed capacity year-by-year for each region, thus accounting for changes in the energy mix used to manufacture future power plants. Under the Baseline scenario, emissions of air and water pollutants more than double whereas the low-carbon technologies introduced in the BLUE Map scenario allow a doubling of electricity supply while stabilizing or even reducing pollution. Material requirements per unit generation for low-carbon technologies can be higher than for conventional fossil generation: 11-40 times more copper for photovoltaic systems and 6-14 times more iron for wind power plants. However, only two years of current global copper and one year of iron production will suffice to build a low-carbon energy system capable of supplying the world's electricity needs in 2050.

  5. A stochastic Forest Fire Model for future land cover scenarios assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. D'Andrea

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Land cover is affected by many factors including economic development, climate and natural disturbances such as wildfires. The ability to evaluate how fire regimes may alter future vegetation, and how future vegetation may alter fire regimes, would assist forest managers in planning management actions to be carried out in the face of anticipated socio-economic and climatic change. In this paper, we present a method for calibrating a cellular automata wildfire regime simulation model with actual data on land cover and wildfire size-frequency. The method is based on the observation that many forest fire regimes, in different forest types and regions, exhibit power law frequency-area distributions. The standard Drossel-Schwabl cellular automata Forest Fire Model (DS-FFM produces simulations which reproduce this observed pattern. However, the standard model is simplistic in that it considers land cover to be binary – each cell either contains a tree or it is empty – and the model overestimates the frequency of large fires relative to actual landscapes. Our new model, the Modified Forest Fire Model (MFFM, addresses this limitation by incorporating information on actual land use and differentiating among various types of flammable vegetation. The MFFM simulation model was tested on forest types with Mediterranean and sub-tropical fire regimes. The results showed that the MFFM was able to reproduce structural fire regime parameters for these two regions. Further, the model was used to forecast future land cover. Future research will extend this model to refine the forecasts of future land cover and fire regime scenarios under climate, land use and socio-economic change.

  6. Assessing hydrologic impacts of future Land Change scenarios in the San Pedro River (U.S./Mexico)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kepner, W. G.; Burns, S.; Sidman, G.; Levick, L.; Goodrich, D. C.; Guertin, P.; Yee, W.; Scianni, M.

    2012-12-01

    An approach was developed to characterize the hydrologic impacts of urban expansion through time for the San Pedro River, a watershed of immense international importance that straddles the U.S./Mexico border. Future urban growth is a key driving force altering local and regional hydrology and is represented by decadal changes in housing density maps from 2010 to 2100 derived from the Integrated Climate and Land-Use Scenarios (ICLUS) database. ICLUS developed future housing density maps by adapting the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) social, economic, and demographic storylines to the conterminous United States. To characterize the hydrologic impacts of future growth, the housing density maps were reclassified to National Land Cover Database 2006 land cover classes and used to parameterize the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) using the Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment (AGWA) tool. The presentation will report 1) the methodology for adapting the ICLUS data for use in AGWA as an approach to evaluate basin-wide impacts of development on water-quantity and -quality, 2) initial results of the application of the methodology, and 3) discuss implications of the analysis.

  7. Development and preliminary reliability testing of an assessment of patient independence in performing a treatment program: standardized scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris-Hayes, Marcie; Holtzman, Gregory W; Earley, Jeanne A; Van Dillen, Linda R

    2010-03-01

    Physical therapists often assess patient independence through observation; however, it is not known if therapists make these judgments reliably. We have developed a standardized method to assess a patient's ability to perform his or her treatment program independently. To develop a standardized assessment of patient independence in performance of a treatment program and examine the intra- and inter-rater reliability decisions made by two physical therapists. Test-retest. An assessment of patient independence in performance was developed. Standardized patient scenarios were used to assess the intra- and inter-tester reliability of two physical therapists. Percentage of agreement (%) and kappa's coefficient (k and k(w)) indexed rater reliability. Intra-rater reliability of therapist 1 was as follows: knowledge: % = 95, k = 0.90; performance: % = 95, k(w) = 0.82. Intra-rater reliability of therapist 2 was as follows: knowledge: % = 85, k = 0.68; performance: % = 94, k(w) = 0.80. Inter-rater reliability for knowledge was % = 91 and k = 0.79 and for performance was % = 91 and k(w) = 0.72. Trained therapists displayed substantial to excellent intra-rater reliability and substantial inter-rater reliability in assessing a patient's independence in a treatment program. :

  8. UVQ: a tool for assessing the water and contaminant balance impacts of urban development scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitchell, V G; Diaper, C

    2005-01-01

    This paper presents the water and contaminant daily simulation model of the total water cycle, called UVQ. The model has been developed to provide a means for rapidly assessing conventional and nonconventional approaches to providing water supply, stormwater and wastewater services to urban allotments, neighbourhoods and study areas. The model is placed the context of other such models developed internationally through a brief literature review. This is followed by a description of the model and output examples, which is used to illustrate the utility of the model. UVQ is an effective preliminary assessment tool for determining the impacts of urban development options on the total water cycle, as well as the performance of a wide range of non-conventional demand and supply side management techniques. It compliments other aspects of an environmental assessment of options, along with more traditional aspects such as infrastructure costing.

  9. One laptop per child, local refurbishment or overseas donations? Sustainability assessment of computer supply scenarios for schools in Colombia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Streicher-Porte, Martin; Marthaler, Christian; Böni, Heinz; Schluep, Mathias; Camacho, Angel; Hilty, Lorenz M

    2009-08-01

    With the intention of bridging the 'digital divide' many programmes have been launched to provide computers for educational institutions, ranging from refurbishing second hand computers to delivering low cost new computers. The fast and economical provision of large quantities of equipment is one of the many challenges faced by such programmes. If an increase is to be achieved in the sustainability of computer supplies for schools, not only must equipment be provided, but also suitable training and maintenance delivered. Furthermore, appropriate recycling has to be ensured, so that end-of-life equipment can be dealt with properly. This study has evaluated the suitability of three computer supply scenarios to schools in Colombia: (i) 'Colombian refurbishment', -refurbishment of computers donated in Colombia, (ii) 'Overseas refurbishment', -import of computers which were donated and refurbished abroad, and (iii) 'XO Laptop', -purchase of low cost computers manufactured in Korea. The methods applied were: Material Flow Assessment, -to assess the quantities-, Life Cycle Assessment, -to assess the environmental impacts, and the application of the Multiple Attribute Utility Theory, -to analyse, evaluate and compare different scenarios. The most sustainable solution proved to be the local refurbishment of second hand computers of Colombian origin to an appropriate technical standard. The environmental impacts of such practices need to be evaluated carefully, as second hand appliances have to be maintained, require spare parts and sometimes use more energy than newer equipment. Providing schools with second hand computers from overseas and through programmes such as 'One Laptop Per Child' has the disadvantage that the potential for social improvements - such as creation of jobs and local industry involvement - is very low.

  10. Assessment of national biomass in complex forests and technical capacity scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matieu Henry; Javier G. P. Gamarra; Gael Sola; Luca Birigazzi; Emily Donegan; Julian Murillo; Tommaso Chiti; Nicolas Picard; Miguel Cifuentes-Jara; S Sandeep; Laurent. Saint-André

    2015-01-01

    Understanding forest ecosystems is paramount for their sustainable management and for the livelihoods and ecosystem services which depend on them. However, the complexity and diversity of these systems poses a challenge to interpreting data patterns. The availability and accessibility of data and tools often determine the method selected for forest assessment. Capacity...

  11. An empirical, hierarchical typology of tree species assemblages for assessing forest dynamics under global change scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jennifer K. Costanza; John W. Coulston; David N. Wear

    2017-01-01

    The composition of tree species occurring in a forest is important and can be affected by global change drivers such as climate change. To inform assessment and projection of global change impacts at broad extents, we used hierarchical cluster analysis and over 120,000 recent forest inventory plots to empirically define forest tree assemblages across the U.S., and...

  12. Finding the Optimum Scenario in Risk-benefit Assessment: An Example on Vitamin D

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Berjia, Firew Lemma; Hoekstra, J.; Verhagen, H.

    2014-01-01

    that provides maximum net health gains. As a common health metric, Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALY) has been used to project the net health effect by using the QALIBRA (Quality of Life for Benefit Risk Assessment) software. Results: The method used in the vitamin D example shows that it is feasible to find...

  13. Allocation and 'what-if' scenarios in life cycle assessment of waste management systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heijungs, Reinout; Guinée, Jeroen B.

    2007-01-01

    Many modern waste treatment processes and waste management systems are able to treat many different types of waste at the same time, and deliver a number of useful outputs (secondary materials, energy) as well. These systems are thus increasingly multi-functional. As such, in life cycle assessment

  14. No-reference pixel based video quality assessment for HEVC decoded video

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Huang, Xin; Søgaard, Jacob; Forchhammer, Søren

    2017-01-01

    This paper proposes a No-Reference (NR) Video Quality Assessment (VQA) method for videos subject to the distortion given by the High Efficiency Video Coding (HEVC) scheme. The assessment is performed without access to the bitstream. The proposed analysis is based on the transform coefficients...

  15. Assessing the Geographic Expression of Urban Sustainability: A Scenario Based Approach Incorporating Spatial Multicriteria Decision Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Walter W. Kropp; James K. Lein

    2012-01-01

    Urban sustainability involves a re-examination of urban development including environmental, social and economic policies and practices that acknowledge the role of cities in global environmental change. However, sustainability remains a broadly defined concept that has been applied to mean everything from environmental protection, social cohesion, economic growth, neighborhood design, alternative energy, and green building design. To guide sustainability initiatives and assess progress towar...

  16. Sustainability assessment of electricity production technologies based on the turkish RES scenario in 2020

    OpenAIRE

    Tunarli, Korhan

    2014-01-01

    Environmental protection, economic development and social development are known to be three pillars of sustainability that should exist together for sustainable development. Sustainability assessment can be carried out for products, technologies, policies and processes. In this master thesis project, three pillars of sustainability are deeply studied with regards to electricity production technologies in Turkey for year 2020, in which futuristic projections are based on one chosen renewable e...

  17. Toward refined environmental scenarios for ecological risk assessment of down-the-drain chemicals in freshwater environments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franco, Antonio; Price, Oliver R; Marshall, Stuart; Jolliet, Olivier; Van den Brink, Paul J; Rico, Andreu; Focks, Andreas; De Laender, Frederik; Ashauer, Roman

    2017-03-01

    Current regulatory practice for chemical risk assessment suffers from the lack of realism in conventional frameworks. Despite significant advances in exposure and ecological effect modeling, the implementation of novel approaches as high-tier options for prospective regulatory risk assessment remains limited, particularly among general chemicals such as down-the-drain ingredients. While reviewing the current state of the art in environmental exposure and ecological effect modeling, we propose a scenario-based framework that enables a better integration of exposure and effect assessments in a tiered approach. Global- to catchment-scale spatially explicit exposure models can be used to identify areas of higher exposure and to generate ecologically relevant exposure information for input into effect models. Numerous examples of mechanistic ecological effect models demonstrate that it is technically feasible to extrapolate from individual-level effects to effects at higher levels of biological organization and from laboratory to environmental conditions. However, the data required to parameterize effect models that can embrace the complexity of ecosystems are large and require a targeted approach. Experimental efforts should, therefore, focus on vulnerable species and/or traits and ecological conditions of relevance. We outline key research needs to address the challenges that currently hinder the practical application of advanced model-based approaches to risk assessment of down-the-drain chemicals. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2017;13:233-248. © 2016 SETAC. © 2016 SETAC.

  18. Assessing the impact of climate-change scenarios on landslide occurrence in Umbria Region, Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ciabatta, L.; Camici, S.; Brocca, L.; Ponziani, F.; Stelluti, M.; Berni, N.; Moramarco, T.

    2016-10-01

    Landslides are frequent and widespread geomorphological phenomena causing loss of human life and damage to property. The main tool for assessing landslide risk relies on rainfall thresholds and thus, many countries established early warning systems aimed to landslide hazard assessment. The Umbria Region Civil Protection Centre developed an operational early warning system for landslide risk assessment, named PRESSCA, based on the soil saturation conditions to identify rainfall thresholds. These thresholds, currently used by the Civil Protection operators for the day-by-day landslide hazard assessment, provided satisfactory results with more than 86% of the landslides events correctly identified during the period 1990-2013. In this study, the PRESSCA system was employed for the assessment of climate change impact on landslide hazard in Central Italy. The outputs of five different Global Circulation Models (GCMs) were downscaled and weather generators were used for obtaining hourly rainfall and temperature time series from daily GCMs projection. Then, PRESSCA system was employed to estimate the number of landslide occurrence per year. By comparing results obtained for three different periods (1990-2013 (baseline), 2040-2069 and 2070-2099), for the Umbria territory a general increase in events occurrence was expected (up to more than 40%) in the future period, mainly during the winter season. The results also revealed that the effect of climate change on landslides was not straightforward to identify and the close interaction between rainfall magnitude/intensity, temperature and soil moisture should be analysed in depth. Overall, soil moisture was projected to decrease throughout the year but during the wet season the variations with respect to the present period were very small. Specifically, it was found that during the warm-dry season, due to the strong decrease of soil moisture, even for a sensible increase in rainfall intensity, the landslide occurrence was

  19. Optimal reference interval for homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance in a Japanese population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamada, Chizumi; Mitsuhashi, Toshitake; Hiratsuka, Noboru; Inabe, Fumiyo; Araida, Nami; Takahashi, Eiko

    2011-10-07

    The aim of the present study was to establish a reference interval for homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) in a Japanese population based on the C28-A3 document from the Clinical and Laboratory Standards Institute (CLSI). We selected healthy subjects aged 20-79 years, with fasting plasma glucose reference limits of HOMA-IR. We selected 2173 subjects as reference individuals, and 2153 subjects were used for analysis. The reference interval for HOMA-IR was established as between 0.4 and 2.4. This represents the first reference interval study for HOMA-IR that applies the stringent CLSI C28-A3 document. HOMA-IR ≥ 2.5 should be considered a reasonable indicator of insulin resistance in Japanese. (J Diabetes Invest, doi: 10.1111/j.2040-1124.2011.00113.x, 2011).

  20. Conservation assessments in climate change scenarios: spatial perspectives for present and future in two Pristidactylus (Squamata: Leiosauridae) lizards from Argentina.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minoli, Ignacio; Avila, Luciano Javier

    2017-02-26

    The consequences of global climate change can already be seen in many physical and biological systems and these effects could change the distribution of suitable areas for a wide variety of organisms to the middle of this century. We analyzed the current habitat use and we projected the suitable area of present conditions into the geographical space of future scenarios (2050), to assess and quantify whether future climate change would affect the distribution and size of suitable environments in two Pristidactylus lizard species. Comparing the habitat use and future forecasts of the two studied species, P. achalensis showed a more restricted use of available resource units (RUs) and a moderate reduction of the potential future area. On the contrary, P. nigroiugulus uses more available RUs and has a considerable area decrease for both future scenarios. These results suggest that both species have a moderately different trend towards reducing available area of suitable habitats, the persistent localities for both 2050 CO2 concentration models, and in the available RUs used. We discussed the relation between size and use of the current habitat, changes in future projections along with the protected areas from present-future and the usefulness of these results in conservation plans. This work illustrates how ectothermic organisms might have to face major changes in their availability suitable areas as a consequence of the effect of future climate change.

  1. Suicide ideation amongst people referred for mental health assessment in police custody

    OpenAIRE

    Forrester, Andrew; Samele, Chiara; Slade, Karen; Jamieson-Craig, Thomas Kern; Valmaggia, Lucia Rita

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: To examine the prevalence of suicide ideation amongst a group of people who had been arrested and taken into police custody, and were then referred to a mental health service operating in the police stations.Design/methodology/approach: A referred sample of 888 cases were collected over an 18-month period during 2012/13. Clinical assessments were conducted using a template in which background information was collected (including information about their previous clinical history, subs...

  2. Patient-Assessed Chronic Illness Care (PACIC) scenario in an Indian homeopathic hospital

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koley, Munmun; Saha, Subhranil; Ghosh, Shubhamoy; Nag, Goutam; Kundu, Monojit; Mondal, Ramkumar; Purkait, Rajib; Patra, Supratim; Ali, Seikh Swaif

    2015-01-01

    Homeopathy research has focused on chronic conditions; however, the extent to which current homeopathic care is compliant with the Chronic Care Model (CCM) has been sparsely shown. As the Bengali Patient-Assessed Chronic Illness Care (PACIC)-20 was not available, the English questionnaire was translated and evaluated in a government homeopathic hospital in West Bengal, India. The translation was done in six steps, and approved by an expert committee. Face validity was tested by 15 people for comprehension. Test/retest reliability (reproducibility) was tested on 30 patients with chronic conditions. Internal consistency was tested in 377 patients suffering from various chronic conditions. The questionnaire showed acceptable test/retest reliability [intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) 0.57–0.75; positive to strong positive correlations; p  0.05); however, monthly household income had a significant influence (p Bengali PACIC-20 were satisfactory, rendering it a valid and reliable instrument for assessing chronic illness care among the patients attending a homeopathic hospital. PMID:26933640

  3. Building Damage Assessment Using Scenario Based Tsunami Numerical Analysis and Fragility Curves

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Khawar Rehman

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available A combination of a deterministic approach and fragility analysis is applied to assess tsunami damage caused to buildings. The area selected to validate the model is Imwon Port in Korea. The deterministic approach includes numerical modeling of tsunami propagation in the East Sea following an earthquake on the western coast of Japan. The model is based on the linear shallow-water equations (LSWE augmented with Boussinesq approximation to account for dispersion effects in wave propagation, and coastal wave run-up is modeled by non-linear shallow-water equations (NLSWE. The output from the deterministic model comprises inundation depth. The numerical output is used to perform fragility analysis for buildings vulnerable to flooding by tsunamis in the port area. Recently developed fragility curves—based on the ordinal regression method—are used for damage probability estimates. The extent of structural damage in the areas under a tsunami hazard is identified by the numerical modeling of tsunami features. Our numerical model offers high bathymetric resolution, which enables us to capture flow features at the individual structure level and results in improved estimation of damage probability. This approach can serve as a measure of assessing structure vulnerability for areas with little or no records of tsunami damage and provide planners with a better understanding of structure behavior when a tsunami strikes.

  4. Patient-Assessed Chronic Illness Care (PACIC scenario in an Indian homeopathic hospital

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Munmun Koley

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Homeopathy research has focused on chronic conditions; however, the extent to which current homeopathic care is compliant with the Chronic Care Model (CCM has been sparsely shown. As the Bengali Patient-Assessed Chronic Illness Care (PACIC-20 was not available, the English questionnaire was translated and evaluated in a government homeopathic hospital in West Bengal, India. The translation was done in six steps, and approved by an expert committee. Face validity was tested by 15 people for comprehension. Test/retest reliability (reproducibility was tested on 30 patients with chronic conditions. Internal consistency was tested in 377 patients suffering from various chronic conditions. The questionnaire showed acceptable test/retest reliability [intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC 0.57–0.75; positive to strong positive correlations; p0.05; however, monthly household income had a significant influence (p<0.05 on the subscales except for “delivery system or practice design.” Overall, chronic illness care appeared to be quite promising and CCM-compliant. The psychometric properties of the Bengali PACIC-20 were satisfactory, rendering it a valid and reliable instrument for assessing chronic illness care among the patients attending a homeopathic hospital.

  5. Hydrological Assessment of Model Performance and Scenario Analyses of Land Use Change and Climate Change in lowlands of Veneto Region (Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pijl, Anton; Brauer, Claudia; Sofia, Giulia; Teuling, Ryan; Tarolli, Paolo

    2017-04-01

    Growing water-related challenges in lowland areas of the world call for good assessment of our past and present actions, in order to guide our future decisions. The novel Wageningen Lowland Runoff Simulator (WALRUS; Brauer et al., 2014) was developed to simulate hydrological processes and has showed promising performance in recent studies in the Netherlands. Here the model was applied to a coastal basin of 2800 ha in the Veneto Region (northern Italy) to test model performance and evaluate scenario analyses of land use change and climate change. Located partially below sea-level, the reclaimed area is facing persistent land transformation and climate change trends, which alter not only the processes in the catchment but also the demands from it (Tarolli and Sofia, 2016). Firstly results of the calibration (NSE = 0.77; year simulation, daily resolution) and validation (NSE = 0.53; idem) showed that the model is able to reproduce the dominant hydrological processes of this lowland area (e.g. discharge and groundwater fluxes). Land use scenarios between 1951 and 2060 were constructed using demographic models, supported by orthographic interpretation techniques. Climate scenarios were constructed by historical records and future projections by COSMO-CLM regional climate model (Rockel et al., 2008) under the RCP4.5 pathway. WALRUS simulations showed that the land use changes result in a wetter catchment with more discharge, and the climatic changes cause more extremes with longer droughts and stronger rain events. These changes combined show drier summers (-33{%} rainfall, +27{%} soil moisture deficit) and wetter (+13{%} rainfall) and intenser (+30{%} rain intensity) autumn and winters in the future. The simulated discharge regime -particularly peak flow- follows these polarising trends, in good agreement with similar studies in the geographical zone (e.g. Vezzoli et al., 2015). This will increase the pressure on the fully-artificial drainage and agricultural systems

  6. Rapid assessment of urban wetlands: do hydrogeomorphic classification and reference criteria work?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stander, Emilie K; Ehrenfeld, Joan G

    2009-04-01

    The Hydrogeomorphic (HGM) functional assessment method is predicated on the ability of hydrogeomorphic wetland classification and visual assessment of alteration to provide reference standards against which functions in individual wetlands can be evaluated. The effectiveness of this approach was tested by measuring nitrogen cycling functions in forested wetlands in an urbanized region in New Jersey, USA. Fourteen sites represented three HGM classes and were characterized as "least disturbed reference" or "non-reference" based on initial visual assessment. Water table levels and in situ rates of net nitrogen mineralization, net nitrification, and denitrification were measured over one year in each site. Hydrological alterations, resulting in consistently low or flashy water table levels, were not correlated with a priori designations as reference and non-reference. Although the flat-riverine wetland class had lower net nitrification and higher denitrification rates than riverine or mineral flat wetland classes, this difference was attributable to the lack of hydrologically-altered wetlands in the flat-riverine class, and thus more consistently wet conditions. Within all HGM classes, a classification based on the long-term hydrological record that separated sites with "normal," saturated hydrology from those with "altered," drier hydrology, clearly distinguished sites with different nitrogen cycling function. Based on these findings, current practices for designating reference standard sites to judge wetland functions, at least in urbanized regions, are ineffective and potentially misleading. At least one year of hydrological monitoring data is suggested to classify wetlands into groups that have different nutrient cycling functions, particularly in urban landscapes.

  7. An interdisciplinary scenario analysis to assess the water availability and water consumption in the Upper Ouémé catchment in Benin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Giertz

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an interdisciplinary scenario analysis to assess the influence of global and regional change on future water availability and water consumption in the Upper Ouémé catchment in central Benin. For the region three development scenarios were evolved. These scenarios are combined with climate change scenarios based on the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In the mo-delling approach the quantification of the land use/land cover change is performed by the cellular automata model CLUE-S. The future climate scenarios are computed with the regional climate model REMO driven by the global ECHAM model. Using this data different land use and climate change scenarios can be calculated with the conceptual hydrological model UHP-HRU to assess the effects of global changes on the future water availability in Benin. To analyse the future water availability also the water consumption has to be taken into account. Due to high population growth an increase in water need in the future is expected for the region. To calculate the future household water consumption data from a regional survey and demographic projections are used. Development of the water need for animal husbandry is also considered. The first test run of the modelling approach was performed for the development scenario 'business as usual' combined with the IPCC scenario B2 for the year 2025. This test demonstrates the applicability of the approach for an interdisciplinary scenario analysis. A continuous run from 2000–2025 will be simulated for different scenarios as soon as the input data concerning land use/land cover and climate are available.

  8. Assessment of regional acidifying pollutants in the Athabasca oil sands area under different emission scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cho, Sunny; Vijayaraghavan, Krish; Spink, David; Jung, Jaegun; Morris, Ralph; Pauls, Ron

    2017-05-01

    Acid deposition is a potential environmental impact of oil sands development in the Athabasca Oil Sands Region (AOSR) in Northeastern Alberta. An acid deposition management framework has been established to manage this issue. This framework includes an acid deposition modelling and time-to-effect impact assessment component that was recently implemented for four acidifying emissions cases using the Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. Predicted gross Potential Acid Input (PAI) deposition in the AOSR increases from the historical to existing case with further increases predicted in two future cases due to the projected increase in NOx emissions. On average the total predicted PAI deposition in the AOSR is approximately 40% sulphur deposition and 60% nitrogen deposition. Sulphur deposition decreases by 7% from the historical to existing cases due to the reductions in SO2 emissions that have occurred in the AOSR but increases by 5% from the existing to future case 1 and by 8% from existing to future case 2 even though continued AOSR SO2 emission decreases were modelled. This is likely the result of the deposition reduction associated with a single large reduction in SO2 emissions from one facility's main stack being offset elsewhere in the AOSR by deposition increases due to small increases in SO2 emissions from several in situ sources with shorter stacks. Average nitrogen deposition over the AOSR increases by 10% from the historical to existing case and then further increases by 10.6% from the existing case to future case 1 and by 12.3% from the existing case to future case 2. The increasing relevance of NOx emissions over SO2 emissions in the AOSR suggests that a robust treatment of nitrogen chemistry such as in CMAQ is required for conducting deposition assessments in the region. The modelling results provide information that can be used to inform oil sands emission management priorities in the context of acid deposition and nitrogen eutrophication

  9. Hydrological and water quality impact assessment of a Mediterranean limno-reservoir under climate change and land use management scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Molina Navarro, Eugenio; Trolle, Dennis; Martínez-Pérez, Silvia

    2014-01-01

    Water scarcity and water pollution constitute a big challenge for water managers in the Mediterranean region today and will exacerbate in a projected future warmer world, making a holistic approach for water resources management at the catchment scale essential. We expanded the Soil and Water...... Assessment Tool (SWAT) model developed for a small Mediterranean catchment to quantify the potential effects of various climate and land use change scenarios on catchment hydrology as well as the trophic state of a new kind of waterbody, a limno-reservoir (Pareja Limno-reservoir), created for environmental...... and recreational purposes. We also checked for the possible synergistic effects of changes in climate and land use on water flow and nutrient exports from the catchment. Simulations showed a noticeable impact of climate change in the river flow regime and consequently the water level of the limno...

  10. Life cycle assessment of integrated waste management systems for alternative legacy scenarios of the London Olympic Park.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parkes, Olga; Lettieri, Paola; Bogle, I David L

    2015-06-01

    This paper presents the results of the life cycle assessment (LCA) of 10 integrated waste management systems (IWMSs) for 3 potential post-event site design scenarios of the London Olympic Park. The aim of the LCA study is to evaluate direct and indirect emissions resulting from various treatment options of municipal solid waste (MSW) annually generated on site together with avoided emissions resulting from energy, materials and nutrients recovery. IWMSs are modelled using GaBi v6.0 Product Sustainability software and results are presented based on the CML (v.Nov-10) characterisation method. The results show that IWMSs with advanced thermal treatment (ATT) and incineration with energy recovery have the lowest Global Warming Potential (GWP) than IWMSs where landfill is the primary waste treatment process. This is due to higher direct emissions and lower avoided emissions from the landfill process compared to the emissions from the thermal treatment processes. LCA results demonstrate that significant environmental savings are achieved through substitution of virgin materials with recycled ones. The results of the sensitivity analysis carried out for IWMS 1 shows that increasing recycling rate by 5%, 10% and 15% compared to the baseline scenario can reduce GWP by 8%, 17% and 25% respectively. Sensitivity analysis also shows how changes in waste composition affect the overall result of the system. The outcomes of such assessments provide decision-makers with fundamental information regarding the environmental impacts of different waste treatment options necessary for sustainable waste management planning. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  11. Food scenarios 2025

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sundbo, Jon

    2016-01-01

    This article presents the results of a future study of the food sector. Two scenarios have been developed using a combination of: 1) a summary of the relevant scientific knowledge, 2) systematic scenario writing, 3) an expert-based Delphi technique, and 4) an expert seminar assessment. The two...... scenarios present possible futures at global, national (Denmark) and regional (Zealand, Denmark) levels. The main scenario is called ‘Food for ordinary days and celebrations’ (a combination of ‘High-technological food production − The functional society’ and ‘High-gastronomic food − The experience society...

  12. High water-stressed population estimated by world water resources assessment including human activities under SRES scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiguchi, M.; Shen, Y.; Kanae, S.; Oki, T.

    2009-04-01

    In an argument of the reduction and the adaptation for the climate change, the evaluation of the influence by the climate change is important. When we argue in adaptation plan from a damage scale and balance with the cost, it is particularly important. Parry et al (2001) evaluated the risks in shortage of water, malaria, food, the risk of the coast flood by temperature function and clarified the level of critical climate change. According to their evaluation, the population to be affected by the shortage of water suddenly increases in the range where temperature increases from 1.5 to 2.0 degree in 2080s. They showed how much we need to reduce emissions in order to draw-down significantly the number at risk. This evaluation of critical climate change threats and targets of water shortage did not include the water withdrawal divided by water availability. Shen et al (2008a) estimated the water withdrawal of projection of future world water resources according to socio-economic driving factors predicted for scenarios A1b, A2, B1, and B2 of the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES). However, these results were in function of not temperature but time. The assessment of the highly water-stressed population considered the socioeconomic development is necessary for a function of the temperature. Because of it is easy to understand to need to reduce emission. We present a multi-GCM analysis of the global and regional populations lived in highly water-stressed basin for a function of the temperature using the socioeconomic data and the outputs of GCMs. In scenario A2, the population increases gradually with warming. On the other hand, the future projection population in scenario A1b and B1 increase gradually until the temperature anomaly exceeds around from +1 to +1.5 degree. After that the population is almost constant. From Shen et al (2008b), we evaluated the HWSP and its ratio in the world with temperature function for scenarios A1B, A2, and B1 by the index of W

  13. Life cycle assessment of EPS and CPB inserts: design considerations and end of life scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Reginald B H; Khoo, Hsien H

    2005-02-01

    Expanded polystyrene (EPS) and corrugated paperboard (CPB) are used in many industrial applications, such as containers, shock absorbers or simply as inserts. Both materials pose two different types of environmental problems. The first is the pollution and resource consumption that occur during the production of these materials; the second is the growing landfills that arise out of the excessive disposal of these packaging materials. Life cycle assessment or LCA will be introduced in this paper as a useful tool to compare the environmental performance of both EPS and CPB throughout their life cycle stages. This paper is divided into two main parts. The first part investigates the environmental impacts of the production of EPS and CPB from 'cradle-to-gate', comparing two inserts--both the original and proposed new designs. In the second part, LCA is applied to investigate various end-of-life cases for the same materials. The study will evaluate the environmental impacts of the present waste management practices in Singapore. Several 'what-if' cases are also discussed, including various percentages of landfilling and incineration. The SimaPro LCA Version 5.0 software's Eco-indicator 99 method is used to investigate the following five environmental impact categories: climate change, acidification/eutrophication, ecotoxicity, fossil fuels and respiratory inorganics.

  14. Towards an optimal adaptation of exposure to NOAA assessment methodology in Multi-Source Industrial Scenarios (MSIS): the challenges and the decision-making process

    Science.gov (United States)

    López de Ipiña, JM; Vaquero, C.; Gutierrez-Cañas, C.

    2017-06-01

    It is expected a progressive increase of the industrial processes that manufacture of intermediate (iNEPs) and end products incorporating ENMs (eNEPs) to bring about improved properties. Therefore, the assessment of occupational exposure to airborne NOAA will migrate, from the simple and well-controlled exposure scenarios in research laboratories and ENMs production plants using innovative production technologies, to much more complex exposure scenarios located around processes of manufacture of eNEPs that, in many cases, will be modified conventional production processes. Here will be discussed some of the typical challenging situations in the process of risk assessment of inhalation exposure to NOAA in Multi-Source Industrial Scenarios (MSIS), from the basis of the lessons learned when confronted to those scenarios in the frame of some European and Spanish research projects.

  15. Assessment of future scenarios for wind erosion sensitivity changes based on ALADIN and REMO regional climate model simulation data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mezősi Gábor

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available The changes in rate and pattern of wind erosion sensitivity due to climate change were investigated for 2021–2050 and 2071–2100 compared to the reference period (1961–1990 in Hungary. The sensitivities of the main influencing factors (soil texture, vegetation cover and climate factor were evaluated by fuzzy method and a combined wind erosion sensitivity map was compiled. The climate factor, as the driving factor of the changes, was assessed based on observed data for the reference period, while REMO and ALADIN regional climate model simulation data for the future periods. The changes in wind erosion sensitivity were evaluated on potentially affected agricultural land use types, and hot spot areas were allocated. Based on the results, 5–6% of the total agricultural areas were high sensitive areas in the reference period. In the 21st century slight or moderate changes of wind erosion sensitivity can be expected, and mostly ‘pastures’, ‘complex cultivation patterns’, and ‘land principally occupied by agriculture with significant areas of natural vegetation’ are affected. The applied combination of multi-indicator approach and fuzzy analysis provides novelty in the field of land sensitivity assessment. The method is suitable for regional scale analysis of wind erosion sensitivity changes and supports regional planning by allocating priority areas where changes in agro-technics or land use have to be considered.

  16. Analysis of transport eco-efficiency scenarios to support sustainability assessment: a study on Dhaka City, Bangladesh.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iqbal, Asif; Allan, Andrew; Afroze, Shirina

    2017-08-01

    The study focused to assess the level of efficiency (of both emissions and service quality) that can be achieved for the transport system in Dhaka City, Bangladesh. The assessment technique attempted to quantify the extent of eco-efficiency achievable for the system modifications due to planning or strategy. The eco-efficiency analysis was facilitated with a detailed survey data on Dhaka City transport system, which was conducted for 9 months in 2012-2013. Line source modelling (CALINE4) was incorporated to estimate the on-road emission concentration. The eco-efficiency of the transport systems was assessed with the 'multi-criteria analysis' (MCA) technique that enabled the valuation of systems' qualitative and quantitative parameters. As per the analysis, driving indiscipline on road can alone promise about 47% reductions in emissions, which along with the number of private vehicles were the important stressors that restrict achieving eco-efficiency in Dhaka City. Detailed analysis of the transport system together with the potential transport system scenarios can offer a checklist to the policy makers enabling to identify the possible actions needed that can offer greater services to the dwellers against lesser emissions, which in turn can bring sustainability of the system.

  17. Using conditional tree forests and life history traits to assess specific risks of stream degradation under multiple pressure scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mondy, Cédric P; Usseglio-Polatera, Philippe

    2013-09-01

    The full accomplishment of the European Water Framework Directive objectives has required from EU members three successive steps: (i) the evaluation of their water body ecological status, (ii) the risk assessment of different anthropogenic pressure categories and (iii) the implementation of appropriate management and restoration programs. We aimed at designing an innovative retrospective ecological risk assessment (ERA) tool working for most of the French wadeable rivers in a context of multiple anthropogenic pressures (step ii). This tool, including conditional tree forest (CTF) models, was built on combinations of benthic macroinvertebrate trait-based metrics for each of sixteen anthropogenic pressure categories. For eleven pressure categories, CTF models have given good impairment risk assessment (i.e. AUC≥0.70), even at moderate risk level and in a multi-pressure context. The four other models have provided poorer but promising results (AUC=0.67±0.02). Identifying the potential weight of individual anthropogenic pressures that lead to biotic assemblage impairment in streams under multiple pressure scenario, is a key step for managers to implement appropriate stream restoration programs. Simultaneously considering the whole complexity of bio-ecological adaptations within biotic assemblages subjected to human pressures provides a functional diagnostic tool both (i) ecologically relevant and (ii) efficient for ERA. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Assessing the cross contamination and transfer rates of Salmonella enterica from chicken to lettuce under different food-handling scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ravishankar, Sadhana; Zhu, Libin; Jaroni, Divya

    2010-09-01

    Cross contamination of foodborne pathogens from raw meats to ready-to-eat foods has caused a number of foodborne outbreaks. The cross contamination and transfer rates of Salmonella enterica from chicken to lettuce under various food-handling scenarios were determined. The following scenarios were tested: in scenario 1, cutting board and knife used to cut chicken (10(6) CFU/g) were also used for cutting lettuce, without washing; in scenario 2, cutting board and knife were washed with water separately after cutting chicken, and subsequently used for cutting lettuce; and in scenario 3, cutting board and knife were thoroughly washed with soap and hot water after cutting chicken, and before cutting lettuce. In each scenario, cutting board, knife, chicken and lettuce were sampled for population of S. enterica. For scenario 1, both before and after cutting lettuce, the cutting board and knife each had about 2 logs CFU/cm(2) of S. enterica, respectively. The cut lettuce had about 3 logs CFU/g of S. enterica. In scenario 2, fewer organisms (0.5-2.4 logs CFU/g or cm(2)) were transferred. The transfer rates in both scenarios ranged from 0.02 to 75%. However, in scenario 3, lettuce, cutting board or knife, after washing and cutting lettuce. This shows that the FDA recommended practice for cleaning cutting boards is effective in removing S. enterica and preventing cross contamination. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. A novel no-reference objective stereoscopic video quality assessment method based on visual saliency analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Xinyan; Zhao, Wei; Ye, Long; Zhang, Qin

    2017-07-01

    This paper proposes a no-reference objective stereoscopic video quality assessment method with the motivation that making the effect of objective experiments close to that of subjective way. We believe that the image regions with different visual salient degree should not have the same weights when designing an assessment metric. Therefore, we firstly use GBVS algorithm to each frame pairs and separate both the left and right viewing images into the regions with strong, general and week saliency. Besides, local feature information like blockiness, zero-crossing and depth are extracted and combined with a mathematical model to calculate a quality assessment score. Regions with different salient degree are assigned with different weights in the mathematical model. Experiment results demonstrate the superiority of our method compared with the existed state-of-the-art no-reference objective Stereoscopic video quality assessment methods.

  20. Integrating experimental and numerical methods for a scenario-based quantitative assessment of subsurface energy storage options

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kabuth, Alina; Dahmke, Andreas; Hagrey, Said Attia al; Berta, Márton; Dörr, Cordula; Koproch, Nicolas; Köber, Ralf; Köhn, Daniel; Nolde, Michael; Tilmann Pfeiffer, Wolf; Popp, Steffi; Schwanebeck, Malte; Bauer, Sebastian

    2016-04-01

    Within the framework of the transition to renewable energy sources ("Energiewende"), the German government defined the target of producing 60 % of the final energy consumption from renewable energy sources by the year 2050. However, renewable energies are subject to natural fluctuations. Energy storage can help to buffer the resulting time shifts between production and demand. Subsurface geological structures provide large potential capacities for energy stored in the form of heat or gas on daily to seasonal time scales. In order to explore this potential sustainably, the possible induced effects of energy storage operations have to be quantified for both specified normal operation and events of failure. The ANGUS+ project therefore integrates experimental laboratory studies with numerical approaches to assess subsurface energy storage scenarios and monitoring methods. Subsurface storage options for gas, i.e. hydrogen, synthetic methane and compressed air in salt caverns or porous structures, as well as subsurface heat storage are investigated with respect to site prerequisites, storage dimensions, induced effects, monitoring methods and integration into spatial planning schemes. The conceptual interdisciplinary approach of the ANGUS+ project towards the integration of subsurface energy storage into a sustainable subsurface planning scheme is presented here, and this approach is then demonstrated using the examples of two selected energy storage options: Firstly, the option of seasonal heat storage in a shallow aquifer is presented. Coupled thermal and hydraulic processes induced by periodic heat injection and extraction were simulated in the open-source numerical modelling package OpenGeoSys. Situations of specified normal operation as well as cases of failure in operational storage with leaking heat transfer fluid are considered. Bench-scale experiments provided parameterisations of temperature dependent changes in shallow groundwater hydrogeochemistry. As a

  1. Women referred for occupational risk assessment in pregnancy have no increased risk of adverse obstetric outcomes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bidstrup, Signe Brøker; Kaerlev, Linda; Thulstrup, Ane Marie

    2015-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: Our aim was to study the association between pregnant women's referral status for occupational risk assessment, and their risk of preterm delivery (... pregnant women referred to two Danish clinics of occupational medicine (Copenhagen and Aarhus) from 1984 to 2010 were compared with the referred women's 1,077 non-referred pregnancy outcomes and with the pregnancy outcomes of 345,467 gainfully employed women from the same geographical areas and time period....../or that the occupational risk assessment and counselling of pregnant women are preventing these selected adverse pregnancy outcomes. FUNDING: The Research Unit at Department of Occupational and Environmental Medicine at Bispebjerg Hospital supported the study financially. TRIAL REGISTRATION: not relevant. The study...

  2. A broad assessment of factors determining Culicoides imicola abundance: modelling the present and forecasting its future in climate change scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Acevedo, Pelayo; Ruiz-Fons, Francisco; Estrada, Rosa; Márquez, Ana Luz; Miranda, Miguel Angel; Gortázar, Christian; Lucientes, Javier

    2010-12-06

    Bluetongue (BT) is still present in Europe and the introduction of new serotypes from endemic areas in the African continent is a possible threat. Culicoides imicola remains one of the most relevant BT vectors in Spain and research on the environmental determinants driving its life cycle is key to preventing and controlling BT. Our aim was to improve our understanding of the biotic and abiotic determinants of C. imicola by modelling its present abundance, studying the spatial pattern of predicted abundance in relation to BT outbreaks, and investigating how the predicted current distribution and abundance patterns might change under future (2011-2040) scenarios of climate change according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. C. imicola abundance data from the bluetongue national surveillance programme were modelled with spatial, topoclimatic, host and soil factors. The influence of these factors was further assessed by variation partitioning procedures. The predicted abundance of C. imicola was also projected to a future period. Variation partitioning demonstrated that the pure effect of host and topoclimate factors explained a high percentage (>80%) of the variation. The pure effect of soil followed in importance in explaining the abundance of C. imicola. A close link was confirmed between C. imicola abundance and BT outbreaks. To the best of our knowledge, this study is the first to consider wild and domestic hosts in predictive modelling for an arthropod vector. The main findings regarding the near future show that there is no evidence to suggest that there will be an important increase in the distribution range of C. imicola; this contrasts with an expected increase in abundance in the areas where it is already present in mainland Spain. What may be expected regarding the future scenario for orbiviruses in mainland Spain, is that higher predicted C. imicola abundance may significantly change the rate of transmission of orbiviruses.

  3. Can we be certain about future land use change in Europe? A multi-scenario, integrated-assessment analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holman, I P; Brown, C; Janes, V; Sandars, D

    2017-02-01

    The global land system is facing unprecedented pressures from growing human populations and climatic change. Understanding the effects these pressures may have is necessary to designing land management strategies that ensure food security, ecosystem service provision and successful climate mitigation and adaptation. However, the number of complex, interacting effects involved makes any complete understanding very difficult to achieve. Nevertheless, the recent development of integrated modelling frameworks allows for the exploration of the co-development of human and natural systems under scenarios of global change, potentially illuminating the main drivers and processes in future land system change. Here, we use one such integrated modelling framework (the CLIMSAVE Integrated Assessment Platform) to investigate the range of projected outcomes in the European land system across climatic and socio-economic scenarios for the 2050s. We find substantial consistency in locations and types of change even under the most divergent conditions, with results suggesting that climate change alone will lead to a contraction in the agricultural and forest area within Europe, particularly in southern Europe. This is partly offset by the introduction of socioeconomic changes that change both the demand for agricultural production, through changing food demand and net imports, and the efficiency of agricultural production. Simulated extensification and abandonment in the Mediterranean region is driven by future decreases in the relative profitability of the agricultural sector in southern Europe, owing to decreased productivity as a consequence of increased heat and drought stress and reduced irrigation water availability. The very low likelihood (future policy should seek to promote and support the multifunctional role of agriculture and forests in different European regions, rather than focusing on increased productivity as a route to agricultural and forestry viability.

  4. Reference charts for young stands — a quantitative methodology for assessing tree performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lance A. Vickers; David R. Larsen; Benjamin O. Knapp; John M. Kabrick; Daniel C. Dey

    2017-01-01

    Reference charts have long been used in the medical field for quantitative clinical assessment of juvenile development by plotting distribution quantiles for a selected attribute (e.g., height) against age for specified peer populations.We propose that early stand dynamics is an area of study that could benefit from the descriptions and analyses offered by similar...

  5. Comparing Results from the Clinical Assessment of Behavior and Child Behavior Checklist with Referred Preschoolers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Myers, Carl L.

    2013-01-01

    Behavior rating scales are popular assessment tools but more research is needed on the preschool versions of the instruments, particularly with referred samples of preschoolers. This study examined the comparability of results from parent ratings on the preschool versions of the Child Behavior Checklist (CBCL/1.5-5, Achenbach & Rescorla, 2000)…

  6. Cross-cultural assessment of automatically generated multimodal referring expressions in a virtual world

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Sluis, Ielka; Luz, Saturnino; Breitfuss, Werner; Ishizuka, Mitsuru; Prendinger, Helmut

    This paper presents an assessment of automatically generated multimodal referring expressions as produced by embodied conversational agents in a virtual world. The algorithm used for this purpose employs general principles of human motor control and cooperativity in dialogues that can be

  7. A retrospective chart study: The pathway to a diagnosis for adults referred for ASD assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Geurts, H.M.; Jansen, M.D.

    2012-01-01

    Charts of 125 adults (18 to 82 years), referred to an autism expert team for Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) assessment, were reviewed to explore the pathway to an adulthood ASD diagnosis. The participants first contacted the mental health care clinic at a median age of 19 years (range 2 to 78

  8. Reliable assessment of general surgeons' non-technical skills based on video-recordings of patient simulated scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spanager, Lene; Beier-Holgersen, Randi; Dieckmann, Peter; Konge, Lars; Rosenberg, Jacob; Oestergaard, Doris

    2013-11-01

    Nontechnical skills are essential for safe and efficient surgery. The aim of this study was to evaluate the reliability of an assessment tool for surgeons' nontechnical skills, Non-Technical Skills for Surgeons dk (NOTSSdk), and the effect of rater training. A 1-day course was conducted for 15 general surgeons in which they rated surgeons' nontechnical skills in 9 video recordings of scenarios simulating real intraoperative situations. Data were gathered from 2 sessions separated by a 4-hour training session. Interrater reliability was high for both pretraining ratings (Cronbach's α = .97) and posttraining ratings (Cronbach's α = .98). There was no statistically significant development in assessment skills. The D study showed that 2 untrained raters or 1 trained rater was needed to obtain generalizability coefficients >.80. The high pretraining interrater reliability indicates that videos were easy to rate and Non-Technical Skills for Surgeons dk easy to use. This implies that Non-Technical Skills for Surgeons dk (NOTSSdk) could be an important tool in surgical training, potentially improving safety and quality for surgical patients. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Validation of no-reference image quality index for the assessment of digital mammographic images

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Oliveira, Helder C. R.; Barufaldi, Bruno; Borges, Lucas R.; Gabarda, Salvador; Bakic, Predrag R.; Maidment, Andrew D. A.; Schiabel, Homero; Vieira, Marcelo A. C.

    2016-03-01

    To ensure optimal clinical performance of digital mammography, it is necessary to obtain images with high spatial resolution and low noise, keeping radiation exposure as low as possible. These requirements directly affect the interpretation of radiologists. The quality of a digital image should be assessed using objective measurements. In general, these methods measure the similarity between a degraded image and an ideal image without degradation (ground-truth), used as a reference. These methods are called Full-Reference Image Quality Assessment (FR-IQA). However, for digital mammography, an image without degradation is not available in clinical practice; thus, an objective method to assess the quality of mammograms must be performed without reference. The purpose of this study is to present a Normalized Anisotropic Quality Index (NAQI), based on the Rényi entropy in the pseudo-Wigner domain, to assess mammography images in terms of spatial resolution and noise without any reference. The method was validated using synthetic images acquired through an anthropomorphic breast software phantom, and the clinical exposures on anthropomorphic breast physical phantoms and patient's mammograms. The results reported by this noreference index follow the same behavior as other well-established full-reference metrics, e.g., the peak signal-to-noise ratio (PSNR) and structural similarity index (SSIM). Reductions of 50% on the radiation dose in phantom images were translated as a decrease of 4dB on the PSNR, 25% on the SSIM and 33% on the NAQI, evidencing that the proposed metric is sensitive to the noise resulted from dose reduction. The clinical results showed that images reduced to 53% and 30% of the standard radiation dose reported reductions of 15% and 25% on the NAQI, respectively. Thus, this index may be used in clinical practice as an image quality indicator to improve the quality assurance programs in mammography; hence, the proposed method reduces the subjectivity

  10. Regional Issue Identification and Assessment (RIIA): an analysis of the Mid-Range Projection Series C Scenario. Executive summary for Federal Region IV

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Honea, B.; Hillsman, E.

    1979-10-01

    The Department of Energy (DOE) has hypothesized a number of alternate energy futures as part of its energy planning and analysis programs. In this report, which is part of DOE's Regional Issue Identification and Assessment (RIIA) Program, Oak Ridge National Laboratory examines how a proposed energy future called the Mid-Range Projection Series C Scenario would affect Federal Region IV (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Tennessee). This scenario, to be called the Series C Scenario, assumes a medium supply and a medium demand for fuel through 1990, and it incorporates the fuel switching provisions of the Energy Supply and Environmental Coordination Act. The report portrays the major regional environmental, human health and safety, socioeconomic, and institutional effects that might result from the implementation of the Series C Scenario.

  11. Nuclear Computerized Library for Assessing Reactor Reliability (NUCLARR). Version 3.5, Quick Reference Guide

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gilbert, B.G.; Richards, R.E.; Reece, W.J.; Gertman, D.I.

    1992-10-01

    This Reference Guide contains instructions on how to install and use Version 3.5 of the NRC-sponsored Nuclear Computerized Library for Assessing Reactor Reliability (NUCLARR). The NUCLARR data management system is contained in compressed files on the floppy diskettes that accompany this Reference Guide. NUCLARR is comprised of hardware component failure data (HCFD) and human error probability (HEP) data, both of which are available via a user-friendly, menu driven retrieval system. The data may be saved to a file in a format compatible with IRRAS 3.0 and commercially available statistical packages, or used to formulate log-plots and reports of data retrieval and aggregation findings.

  12. Assessing hydrological drought risk for the irrigation sector in future climate scenarios: lessons learned from the Apulia case study (Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Critto, Andrea; Torresan, Silvia; Ronco, Paolo; Zennaro, Federica; Santini, Monia; Trabucco, Antonio; Marcomini, Antonio

    2016-04-01

    Climate change is already affecting the frequency of drought events which may threaten the current stocks of water resources and thus the availability of freshwater for the irrigation. The achievement of a sustainable equilibrium between the availability of water resources and the irrigation demand is essentially related to the planning and implementation of evidence-based adaptation strategies and actions. In this sense, the improvement (of existing) and the development of (new) appropriate risk assessment methods and tools to evaluate the impact of drought events on irrigated crops is fundamental in order to assure that the agricultural yields are appropriate to meet the current and future food and market demand. This study evaluates the risk of hydrological drought on the irrigated agronomic compartment of Apulia, a semi-arid region in Southern Italy. We applied a stepwise Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) procedure, based on the consecutive analysis of hazards, exposure, vulnerability and risks, integrating the qualitative and quantitative available information. Future climate projections for the timeframes 2021-2050 and 2041-2070 were provided by COSMO-CLM under the radiative forcing RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The run-off feeding the water stocks of the most important irrigation reservoirs in Apulia was then modeled with Arc-SWAT. Hence, the hazard analysis was carried out in order to estimate the degree of fulfillment of actual irrigation demand satisfied by water supply of different reservoirs in future scenarios. Vulnerability of exposed irrigated crops was evaluated depending on three factors accounting for crop yield variation vs water stress, water losses along the irrigation network, diversification of water supply. Resulting risk and vulnerability maps allowed: the identification of Reclamation Consortia at higher risk of not fulfilling their future irrigation demand (e.g. Capitanata Reclamation Consortia in RCP8.5 2041-2070 scenario); the ranking of most

  13. Reference genome assessment from a population scale perspective: an accurate profile of variability and noise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carbonell-Caballero, José; Amadoz, Alicia; Alonso, Roberto; Hidalgo, Marta R; Çubuk, Cankut; Conesa, David; López-Quílez, Antonio; Dopazo, Joaquín

    2017-11-15

    Current plant and animal genomic studies are often based on newly assembled genomes that have not been properly consolidated. In this scenario, misassembled regions can easily lead to false-positive findings. Despite quality control scores are included within genotyping protocols, they are usually employed to evaluate individual sample quality rather than reference sequence reliability. We propose a statistical model that combines quality control scores across samples in order to detect incongruent patterns at every genomic region. Our model is inherently robust since common artifact signals are expected to be shared between independent samples over misassembled regions of the genome. The reliability of our protocol has been extensively tested through different experiments and organisms with accurate results, improving state-of-the-art methods. Our analysis demonstrates synergistic relations between quality control scores and allelic variability estimators, that improve the detection of misassembled regions, and is able to find strong artifact signals even within the human reference assembly. Furthermore, we demonstrated how our model can be trained to properly rank the confidence of a set of candidate variants obtained from new independent samples. This tool is freely available at http://gitlab.com/carbonell/ces. jcarbonell.cipf@gmail.com or joaquin.dopazo@juntadeandalucia.es. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

  14. Socio-economic scenario development for the assessment of climate change impacts on agricultural land use: a pairwise comparison approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Abildtrup, Jens; Audsley, E.; Fekete-Farkas, M.

    2006-01-01

    for each of the four SRES scenario families. In the second step, European agricultural driving forces are derived for each scenario from global driving forces. Finally, parameters for the agricultural land use model are quantified. The stepwise procedure is appropriate when developing socio...

  15. Climate and socio-economic scenarios for climate change research and assessment: reconciling the new with the old

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Vuuren, D.P.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/11522016X; Carter, T.R.

    2014-01-01

    A suggestion for mapping the SRES illustrative scenarios onto the new scenarios framework of representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) is presented. The mapping first compares storylines describing future socio-economic developments for SRES and SSPs.

  16. Sensitivity analysis of parameters affecting carbon footprint of fossil fuel power plants based on life cycle assessment scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Dalir

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available In this study a pseudo comprehensive carbon footprint model for fossil fuel power plants is presented. Parameters which their effects are considered in this study include: plant type, fuel type, fuel transmission type, internal consumption of the plant, degradation, site ambient condition, transmission and distribution losses. Investigating internal consumption, degradation and site ambient condition effect on carbon footprint assessment of fossil fuel power plant is the specific feature of the proposed model. To evaluate the model, a sensitivity analysis is performed under different scenarios covering all possible choices for investigated parameters. The results show that carbon footprint of fossil fuel electrical energy that is produced, transmitted and distributed, varies from 321 g CO2 eq/kWh to 980 g CO2 equivalent /kWh. Carbon footprint of combined cycle with natural gas as main fuel is the minimum carbon footprint. Other factors can also cause indicative variation. Fuel type causes a variation of 28%. Ambient condition may change the result up to 13%. Transmission makes the carbon footprint larger by 4%. Internal consumption and degradation influence the result by 2 and 2.5%, respectively. Therefore, to minimize the carbon footprint of fossil fuel electricity, it is recommended to construct natural gas ignited combined cycles in low lands where the temperature is low and relative humidity is high. And the internal consumption is as least as possible and the maintenance and overhaul is as regular as possible.

  17. Including the temporal change in PM{sub 2.5} concentration in the assessment of human health impact: Illustration with renewable energy scenarios to 2050

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gschwind, Benoit, E-mail: benoit.gschwind@mines-paristech.fr [Centre Observation, Impacts, Energy, MINES ParisTech, 1 rue Claude Daunesse, CS 10207, F-06904 Sophia Antipolis (France); Lefevre, Mireille, E-mail: mireille.lefevre@mines-paristech.fr [Centre Observation, Impacts, Energy, MINES ParisTech, 1 rue Claude Daunesse, CS 10207, F-06904 Sophia Antipolis (France); Blanc, Isabelle, E-mail: isabelle.blanc@mines-paristech.fr [Centre Observation, Impacts, Energy, MINES ParisTech, 1 rue Claude Daunesse, CS 10207, F-06904 Sophia Antipolis (France); Ranchin, Thierry, E-mail: thierry.ranchin@mines-paristech.fr [Centre Observation, Impacts, Energy, MINES ParisTech, 1 rue Claude Daunesse, CS 10207, F-06904 Sophia Antipolis (France); Wyrwa, Artur, E-mail: awyrwa@agh.edu.pl [AGH University of Science and Technology, Al. Mickiewicza 30, Krakow 30-059 (Poland); Drebszok, Kamila [AGH University of Science and Technology, Al. Mickiewicza 30, Krakow 30-059 (Poland); Cofala, Janusz, E-mail: cofala@iiasa.ac.at [International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, 2067 Laxenburg (Austria); Fuss, Sabine, E-mail: fuss@mcc-berlin.net [International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, 2067 Laxenburg (Austria); Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change, Torgauer Str. 12-15, 10829 Berlin (Germany)

    2015-04-15

    This article proposes a new method to assess the health impact of populations exposed to fine particles (PM{sub 2.5}) during their whole lifetime, which is suitable for comparative analysis of energy scenarios. The method takes into account the variation of particle concentrations over time as well as the evolution of population cohorts. Its capabilities are demonstrated for two pathways of European energy system development up to 2050: the Baseline (BL) and the Low Carbon, Maximum Renewable Power (LC-MRP). These pathways were combined with three sets of assumptions about emission control measures: Current Legislation (CLE), Fixed Emission Factors (FEFs), and the Maximum Technically Feasible Reductions (MTFRs). Analysis was carried out for 45 European countries. Average PM{sub 2.5} concentration over Europe in the LC-MRP/CLE scenario is reduced by 58% compared with the BL/FEF case. Health impacts (expressed in days of loss of life expectancy) decrease by 21%. For the LC-MRP/MTFR scenario the average PM{sub 2.5} concentration is reduced by 85% and the health impact by 34%. The methodology was developed within the framework of the EU's FP7 EnerGEO project and was implemented in the Platform of Integrated Assessment (PIA). The Platform enables performing health impact assessments for various energy scenarios. - Highlights: • A new method to assess health impact of PM{sub 2.5} for energy scenarios is proposed. • An algorithm to compute Loss of Life Expectancy attributable to exposure to PM{sub 2.5} is depicted. • Its capabilities are demonstrated for two pathways of European energy system development up to 2050. • Integrating the temporal evolution of PM{sub 2.5} is of great interest for assessing the potential impacts of energy scenarios.

  18. Assessing Storm Vulnerabilities and Resilience Strategies: A Scenario-Method for Engaging Stakeholders of Public/Private Maritime Infrastructure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Becker, A.; Burroughs, R.

    2014-12-01

    This presentation discusses a new method to assess vulnerability and resilience strategies for stakeholders of coastal-dependent transportation infrastructure, such as seaports. Much coastal infrastructure faces increasing risk to extreme events resulting from sea level rise and tropical storms. As seen after Hurricane Sandy, natural disasters result in economic costs, damages to the environment, and negative consequences on resident's quality of life. In the coming decades, tough decisions will need to be made about investment measures to protect critical infrastructure. Coastal communities will need to weigh the costs and benefits of a new storm barrier, for example, against those of retrofitting, elevating or simply doing nothing. These decisions require understanding the priorities and concerns of stakeholders. For ports, these include shippers, insurers, tenants, and ultimate consumers of the port cargo on a local and global scale, all of whom have a stake in addressing port vulnerabilities.Decision-makers in exposed coastal areas need tools to understand stakeholders concerns and perceptions of potential resilience strategies. For ports, they need answers to: 1) How will stakeholders be affected? 2) What strategies could be implemented to build resilience? 3) How effectively would the strategies mitigate stakeholder concerns? 4) What level of time and investment would strategies require? 5) Which stakeholders could/should take responsibility? Our stakeholder-based method provides answers to questions 1-3 and forms the basis for further work to address 4 and 5.Together with an expert group, we developed a pilot study for stakeholders of Rhode Island's critical energy port, the Port of Providence. Our method uses a plausible extreme storm scenario with localized visualizations and a portfolio of potential resilience strategies. We tailor a multi-criteria decision analysis tool and, through a series of workshops, we use the storm scenario, resilience strategies

  19. Rapid Global River Flood Risk Assessment under Climate and Socioeconomic Scenarios: An Extreme Case of Eurasian region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwak, Young-joo; Magome, Jun; Hasegawa, Akira; Iwami, Yoichi

    2017-04-01

    Causing widespread devastation with massive economic damage and loss of human lives, flood disasters hamper economic growth and accelerate poverty particularly in developing countries. Globally, this trend will likely continue due to increase in flood magnitude and lack of preparedness for extreme events. In line with risk reduction efforts since the early 21st century, the monitors and governors of global river floods should pay attention to international scientific and policy communities for support to facilitate evidence-based policy making with a special interest in long-term changes due to climate change and socio-economic effects. Although advanced hydrological inundation models and risk models have been developed to reveal flood risk, hazard, exposure, and vulnerability at a river basin, it is obviously hard to identify the distribution and locations of continent-level flood risk based on national-level data. Therefore, we propose a methodological possibility for rapid global flood risk assessment with the results from its application to the two periods, i.e., Present (from 1980 to 2004) and Future (from 2075 to 2099). The method is particularly designed to effectively simplify complexities of a hazard area by calculating the differential inundation depth using GFID2M (global flood inundation depth 2-dimension model), despite low data availability. In this research, we addressed the question of which parts in the Eurasian region (8E to 180E, 0N to 60N) can be found as high-risk areas in terms of exposed population and economy in case of a 50-year return period flood. Economic losses were estimated according to the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenario, and the flood scale was defined using the annual maximum daily river discharge under the extreme conditions of climate change simulated with MRI-AGCM3.2S based on the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP8.5) emissions scenario. As a preliminary result, the total potential economic loss in the

  20. Dynamical rearrangement of super-Earths during disk dispersal. II. Assessment of the magnetospheric rebound model for planet formation scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Beibei; Ormel, Chris W.

    2017-10-01

    Context. The Kepler mission has provided a large sample to statistically analyze the orbital properties of the super-Earth planet population. We hypothesize that these planets formed early and consider the problem of matching planet formation theory to the current orbital configurations. Two scenarios - disk migration and in-situ formation - have been proposed to explain the origin of these planets. In the migration scenario, planets migrate inward to the inner disk due to planet-disk interaction, whereas in the in-situ scenario planets assemble locally. Therefore, planets formed by migration are expected to end up in resonances, whereas those formed in-situ are expected to stay in short period ratios and in non-resonant orbits. Both predictions are at odds with observations. Aims: We investigate whether a preferred formation scenario can be identified through a comparison between the magnetospheric rebound model and the Kepler data. Methods: We conduct N-body simulations of two-planet systems during the disk dispersal phase. Several distributions of model parameters are considered and we make a statistical comparison between the simulations and the Kepler observations. Results: Comparing the migration and the in-situ scenarios, we find that magnetospheric rebound tends to erase the difference in the orbital configuration that was initially presented. After disk dispersal, not all planets are in resonance in the migration scenario, whereas planets do not remain in compact configurations in the in-situ scenario. In both scenarios, the orbits of planets increase with the cavity expansion, and their period ratios have a wider distribution. Conclusions: From a statistical perspective, the magnetospheric rebound model reproduces several observed properties of Kepler planets, such as the fact that a significant number of planets are not in resonances and planet pairs can end up at large period ratios. The disparity in orbital configuration between the two formation

  1. Assessment of Geant4 Maintainability with respect to software engineering references

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ronchieri, Elisabetta; Grazia Pia, Maria; Canaparo, Marco

    2017-10-01

    Over time computer scientists have been provided metrics to measure software maintainability. In existing literature, a large number of references can be found about this topic; nevertheless, a lack of quantitative assessment of maintainability metrics has been observed. In this paper, we summarize the challenges of adopting code measurements in the context of physics software system. In this pilot study, we have used Geant4 - a twenty-year-old software system - to conduct this research and set the grounds for further discussion.

  2. Scenario? Guilty!

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kyng, Morten

    1992-01-01

    Robert Campbell categorizes the word "scenario" as a buzzword, identifies four major uses within HCI and suggests that we adopt new terms differentiating these four uses of the word. My first reaction to reading the article was definitely positive, but rereading it gave me enough second thoughts...

  3. Future Extreme Heat Scenarios to Enable the Assessment of Climate Impacts on Public Health over the Coterminous U.S

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quattrochi, D. A.; Crosson, W. L.; Al-Hamdan, M. Z.; Estes, M. G., Jr.

    2013-12-01

    In the United States, extreme heat is the most deadly weather-related hazard. In the face of a warming climate and urbanization, which contributes to local-scale urban heat islands, it is very likely that extreme heat events (EHEs) will become more common and more severe in the U.S. This research seeks to provide historical and future measures of climate-driven extreme heat events to enable assessments of the impacts of heat on public health over the coterminous U.S. We use atmospheric temperature and humidity information from meteorological reanalysis and from Global Climate Models (GCMs) to provide data on past and future heat events. The focus of research is on providing assessments of the magnitude, frequency and geographic distribution of extreme heat in the U.S. to facilitate public health studies. In our approach, long-term climate change is captured with GCM outputs, and the temporal and spatial characteristics of short-term extremes are represented by the reanalysis data. Two future time horizons for 2040 and 2090 are compared to the recent past period of 1981-2000. We characterize regional-scale temperature and humidity conditions using GCM outputs for two climate change scenarios (A2 and A1B) defined in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). For each future period, 20 years of multi-model GCM outputs are analyzed to develop a ';heat stress climatology' based on statistics of extreme heat indicators. Differences between the two future and the past period are used to define temperature and humidity changes on a monthly time scale and regional spatial scale. These changes are combined with the historical meteorological data, which is hourly and at a spatial scale (12 km) much finer than that of GCMs, to create future climate realizations. From these realizations, we compute the daily heat stress measures and related spatially-specific climatological fields, such as the mean annual number of days above certain thresholds of maximum and minimum air

  4. Future Extreme Heat Scenarios to Enable the Assessment of Climate Impacts on Public Health over the Coterminous U.S.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quattrochi, Dale A.; Crosson, William L.; Al-Hamdan, Mohammad Z.; Estes, Maurice G., Jr.

    2013-01-01

    In the United States, extreme heat is the most deadly weather-related hazard. In the face of a warming climate and urbanization, which contributes to local-scale urban heat islands, it is very likely that extreme heat events (EHEs) will become more common and more severe in the U.S. This research seeks to provide historical and future measures of climate-driven extreme heat events to enable assessments of the impacts of heat on public health over the coterminous U.S. We use atmospheric temperature and humidity information from meteorological reanalysis and from Global Climate Models (GCMs) to provide data on past and future heat events. The focus of research is on providing assessments of the magnitude, frequency and geographic distribution of extreme heat in the U.S. to facilitate public health studies. In our approach, long-term climate change is captured with GCM outputs, and the temporal and spatial characteristics of short-term extremes are represented by the reanalysis data. Two future time horizons for 2040 and 2090 are compared to the recent past period of 1981- 2000. We characterize regional-scale temperature and humidity conditions using GCM outputs for two climate change scenarios (A2 and A1B) defined in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). For each future period, 20 years of multi-model GCM outputs are analyzed to develop a 'heat stress climatology' based on statistics of extreme heat indicators. Differences between the two future and the past period are used to define temperature and humidity changes on a monthly time scale and regional spatial scale. These changes are combined with the historical meteorological data, which is hourly and at a spatial scale (12 km), to create future climate realizations. From these realizations, we compute the daily heat stress measures and related spatially-specific climatological fields, such as the mean annual number of days above certain thresholds of maximum and minimum air temperatures, heat indices

  5. Biomass Scenario Model Scenario Library: Definitions, Construction, and Description

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Inman, D.; Vimmerstedt, L.; Bush, B.; Peterson, S.

    2014-04-01

    Understanding the development of the biofuels industry in the United States is important to policymakers and industry. The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a system dynamics model of the biomass-to-biofuels system that can be used to explore policy effects on biofuels development. Because of the complexity of the model, as well as the wide range of possible future conditions that affect biofuels industry development, we have not developed a single reference case but instead developed a set of specific scenarios that provide various contexts for our analyses. The purpose of this report is to describe the scenarios that comprise the BSM scenario library. At present, we have the following policy-focused scenarios in our library: minimal policies, ethanol-focused policies, equal access to policies, output-focused policies, technological diversity focused, and the point-of-production- focused. This report describes each scenario, its policy settings, and general insights gained through use of the scenarios in analytic studies.

  6. Comparison of photographic and visual assessment of occlusal caries with histology as the reference standard

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Boye Uriana

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The purpose of this study was to compare diagnostic performance for the detection of caries using photographs with an established visual examination method and histological sections as the reference standard. Methods 50 extracted permanent teeth were assessed for the presence of occlusal caries by 9 examiners using two methods; traditional visual examination developed by BASCD and photographs produced by an intra-oral camera. For both methods, diagnoses were made at “caries into dentine” level. The teeth were histologically sectioned and the diagnostic decisions using visual and photographic assessment were compared to the histological reference standard. Inter- and intra- examiner reliability for the methods was assessed and weighted kappa values were calculated. Results The visual examination method had a median sensitivity value of 65.6% and a median specificity value of 82.4%. The photographic assessments method had a median sensitivity of 81.3% and a median specificity of 82.4%. Conclusions The photographic assessments method had a higher sensitivity for caries detection than the visual examination. The two methods had comparable specificities and good intra- and inter- examiner reliability.

  7. A statistical assessment of differences and equivalences between genetically modified and reference plant varieties

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amzal Billy

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Safety assessment of genetically modified organisms is currently often performed by comparative evaluation. However, natural variation of plant characteristics between commercial varieties is usually not considered explicitly in the statistical computations underlying the assessment. Results Statistical methods are described for the assessment of the difference between a genetically modified (GM plant variety and a conventional non-GM counterpart, and for the assessment of the equivalence between the GM variety and a group of reference plant varieties which have a history of safe use. It is proposed to present the results of both difference and equivalence testing for all relevant plant characteristics simultaneously in one or a few graphs, as an aid for further interpretation in safety assessment. A procedure is suggested to derive equivalence limits from the observed results for the reference plant varieties using a specific implementation of the linear mixed model. Three different equivalence tests are defined to classify any result in one of four equivalence classes. The performance of the proposed methods is investigated by a simulation study, and the methods are illustrated on compositional data from a field study on maize grain. Conclusions A clear distinction of practical relevance is shown between difference and equivalence testing. The proposed tests are shown to have appropriate performance characteristics by simulation, and the proposed simultaneous graphical representation of results was found to be helpful for the interpretation of results from a practical field trial data set.

  8. A decision support tool for assessing scenario acceptability using a hierarchy of indicators with compensabilities and importance weights

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Voet, van der H.; Heijden, van der G.W.A.M.; Kruisselbrink, J.W.; Tromp, S.O.; Rijgersberg, H.; Bussel, van L.G.J.; Asselt, van E.D.; Fles-Klerx, van der H.J.

    2014-01-01

    Choosing between different scenarios commonly requires decision making based on multiple criteria. For example finding the most sustainable agricultural production system requires evaluation of many indicators in fields as diverse as environment, animal welfare and economics. A new and transparent

  9. A comprehensive assessment of agricultural intensification scenarios for the Dongting Lake basin in south-central China in 2030.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yin, Guanyi; Liu, Liming; Chang, Xiao; Sun, Jin

    2016-07-01

    To explore the future of the material demand, pollutant emission, production, and arable land area surrounding the Dongting Lake basin, and to find a potential solution for agricultural development, this study assumes the following four agriculture intensification scenarios: the natural development scenario (ND), the production development scenario (PD), the moderate intensification scenario (MI), and the local resilience scenario (LR). The scenarios focus on different developmental patterns (natural development, short-term production growth, long-term sustainability, or self-sufficiency).The result shows to satisfy the food demand in 2030, and the production of crop and meat will be 26.96, 30.25, 28.05, and 16.27 × 10(6) t in ND, PD, MI, and LR, respectively; more than 1.78 × 10(6) ha of arable land is needed. Compared with the year 2012, the material input and pollutant output will increase by a maximum of 18.32 and 122.31 %, respectively. By classifying the environmental risk into four categories-greenhouse gas emission, air pollution, eutrophication, and ecotoxicity-the composite environmental risk index (CER) is calculated. The CER in PD was the highest, followed by that in ND, LR, and MI. Due to the production allocation within the 35 cities and counties, the spatial distribution of CER is more homogenous in PD and MI than in ND. The analysis of the scenarios reveals that through technological improvement and spatial allocation of agricultural production, scenario MI could be a potential direction for the government to design a sustainable agricultural-environmental system.

  10. D1.1 Refined scenarios and requirements, consolidated use cases, and qualitative techno-economic feasibility assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Monserrat del Río, José Francisco; Martín-Sacristán Gandía, David

    2016-01-01

    This document describes scenarios, consolidated use cases and associated requirements for wireless access networks in the 2020-2030 timeframe. These are based on METIS project and also taking into account work done in other 5G projects and forums such as ITU-R and NGMN. The document introduces spectrum authorization modes and describes spectrum usages scenarios, spectrum bands and spectrum demand for 5G services. Finally, this document provides qualitative techno-economic feasibility assessme...

  11. Patient and referring health care provider satisfaction with a physiotherapy spinal triage assessment service.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bath, Brenna; Janzen, Bonnie

    2012-01-01

    To evaluate participant and referring care provider satisfaction associated with a spinal triage assessment service delivered by physiotherapists in collaboration with orthopedic surgeons. People with low back-related complaints were recruited from those referred to a spinal triage assessment program delivered by physiotherapists. Measures of patient and provider satisfaction were completed at approximately 4 weeks after the assessment. The satisfaction surveys were analyzed quantitatively with descriptive statistics and qualitatively with an inductive thematic approach of open and axial coding. A total of 108/115 participants completed the posttest satisfaction survey. Sixty-six percent of participants were "very satisfied" with the service and 55% were "very satisfied" with the recommendations that were made. Only 18% of referring care providers completed the satisfaction survey and 90.5% of those were "very satisfied" with the recommendations. Sixty-one participants and 14 care providers provided comments which revealed a diverse range of themes which were coded into positive (ie, understanding the problem, communication, customer service, efficiency, and management direction), negative (ie, lack of detail, time to follow-up, cost) and neutral related to the triage service, and an "other" category unrelated to the service (ie, chronic symptoms, comorbidities, and limited access to health care.) The quantitative results of the participant survey demonstrated very high levels of satisfaction with the service and slightly less satisfaction with the recommendations that were made. Satisfaction of referring care providers with the recommendations and report was also high, but given the low response rate, these results should be interpreted with caution. Qualitative analysis of participant and provider comments revealed a diverse range of themes. These other issues may be important contextual factors that have the potential to impact patient relevant outcomes.

  12. Assessing models of speciation under different biogeographic scenarios; An empirical study using multi-locus and RNA-seq analyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Taylor; Tollis, Marc; Hsieh, PingHsun; Gutenkunst, Ryan N.; Liu, Zhen; Kusumi, Kenro; Culver, Melanie; Murphy, Robert W.

    2016-01-01

    Evolutionary biology often seeks to decipher the drivers of speciation, and much debate persists over the relative importance of isolation and gene flow in the formation of new species. Genetic studies of closely related species can assess if gene flow was present during speciation, because signatures of past introgression often persist in the genome. We test hypotheses on which mechanisms of speciation drove diversity among three distinct lineages of desert tortoise in the genus Gopherus. These lineages offer a powerful system to study speciation, because different biogeographic patterns (physical vs. ecological segregation) are observed at opposing ends of their distributions. We use 82 samples collected from 38 sites, representing the entire species' distribution and generate sequence data for mtDNA and four nuclear loci. A multilocus phylogenetic analysis in *BEAST estimates the species tree. RNA-seq data yield 20,126 synonymous variants from 7665 contigs from two individuals of each of the three lineages. Analyses of these data using the demographic inference package ∂a∂i serve to test the null hypothesis of no gene flow during divergence. The best-fit demographic model for the three taxa is concordant with the *BEAST species tree, and the ∂a∂i analysis does not indicate gene flow among any of the three lineages during their divergence. These analyses suggest that divergence among the lineages occurred in the absence of gene flow and in this scenario the genetic signature of ecological isolation (parapatric model) cannot be differentiated from geographic isolation (allopatric model).

  13. Assessment of Future Water Resources Availability under Climate Change Scenarios in the Mékrou Basin, Benin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eric Adéchina Alamou

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available This work aims to evaluate future water availability in the Mékrou catchment under climate change scenarios. To reach this goal, data from Regional Climate Models (RCMs were used as the input for four rainfall-runoff models which are ModHyPMA (Hydrological Model based on Least Action Principe, HBV (Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning, AWBM (Australian Water Balance Model, and SimHyd (Simplified Hydrolog. Then the mean values of the hydro-meteorological data of three different projected periods (2011–2040, 2041–2070 and 2071–2100 were compared to their values in the baseline period. The results of calibration and validation of these models show that the meteorological data from RCMs give performances that are as good as performances obtained with the observed meteorological data in the baseline period. The comparison of the mean values of the hydro-meteorological data of the baseline period to their values for the different projected periods indicates that for PET there is a significantly increase until 2100 for both Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Therefore, the rate’s increase of potential evapotranspiration (PET under the RCP8.5 scenario is higher than that obtained under the RCP8.5 scenario. Changes in rainfall amounts depend on the scenario of climate change and the projected periods. For the RCP4.5 scenario, there is a little increase in the annual rainfall amounts over the period from 2011 to 2040, while there is a decrease in the rainfall amounts over the other two projected periods. According to the RCP8.5 scenario, the contrary of changes observed with the RCP4.5 scenario are observed. At a monthly scale, the rainfall amounts will increase for August and September and decrease for July and October. These changes in rainfall amounts greatly affect yearly and monthly discharge at the catchment outlet. Over the three projected periods and for both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, the mean annual

  14. Integrated assessment and scenarios simulation of urban water security system in the southwest of China with system dynamics analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yin, Su; Dongjie, Guan; Weici, Su; Weijun, Gao

    2017-11-01

    The demand for global freshwater is growing, while global freshwater available for human use is limited within a certain time and space. Its security has significant impacts on both the socio-economic system and ecological system. Recently, studies have focused on the urban water security system (UWSS) in terms of either water quantity or water quality. In this study, water resources, water environment, and water disaster issues in the UWSS were combined to establish an evaluation index system with system dynamics (SD) and geographic information systems (GIS). The GIS method performs qualitative analysis from the perspective of the spatial dimension; meanwhile, the SD method performs quantitative calculation about related water security problems from the perspective of the temporal dimension. We established a UWSS model for Guizhou province, China to analyze influencing factors, main driving factors, and system variation law, by using the SD method. We simulated the water security system from 2005 to 2025 under four scenarios (Guiyang scenario, Zunyi scenario, Bijie scenario and combined scenario). The results demonstrate that: (1) the severity of water security in cities is ranked as follows: three cities are secure in Guizhou province, four cities are in basic security and two cities are in a situation of insecurity from the spatial dimension of GIS through water security synthesis; and (2) the major driving factors of UWSS in Guizhou province include agricultural irrigation water demand, soil and water losses area, a ratio increase to the standard of water quality, and investment in environmental protection. A combined scenario is the best solution for UWSS by 2025 in Guizhou province under the four scenarios from the temporal dimension of SD. The results of this study provide a useful suggestion for the management of freshwater for the cities of Guizhou province in southwest China.

  15. Integrated climate/land use/hydrological change scenarios for assessing threats to ecosystem services on California rangelands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byrd, K. B.; Flint, L. E.; Casey, C. F.; Alvarez, P.; Sleeter, B. M.; Sohl, T.

    2013-12-01

    In California there are over 18 million acres of rangelands in the Central Valley and the interior Coast Range, most of which are privately owned and managed for livestock production. Ranches provide extensive wildlife habitat and generate multiple ecosystem services that carry considerable market and non-market values. These rangelands are under pressure from urbanization and conversion to intensive agriculture, as well as from climate change that can alter the flow of these services. To understand the coupled and isolated impacts of land use and climate change on rangeland ecosystem services, we developed six spatially explicit (250 m) coupled climate/land use/hydrological change scenarios for the Central Valley and oak woodland regions of California consistent with three IPCC emission scenarios - A2, A1B and B1. Three land use land cover (LULC) change scenarios were each integrated with two downscaled global climate models (GCMs) (a warm, wet future and a hot, dry future) and related hydrologic data. We used these scenarios to quantify wildlife habitat, water supply (recharge potential and streamflow) and carbon sequestration on rangelands and to conduct an economic analysis associated with changes in these benefits. The USGS FOREcasting SCEnarios of land-use change model (FORE-SCE), which runs dynamically with downscaled GCM outputs, was used to generate maps of yearly LULC change for each scenario from 2006 to 2100. We used the USGS Basin Characterization Model (BCM), a regional water balance model, to generate change in runoff, recharge, and stream discharge based on land use change and climate change. Metrics derived from model outputs were generated at the landscape scale and for six case-study watersheds. At the landscape scale, over a quarter of the million acres set aside for conservation in the B1 scenario would otherwise be converted to agriculture in the A2 scenario, where temperatures increase by up to 4.5 °C compared to 1.3 °C in the B1 scenario

  16. External Quality Assessment Scheme for reference laboratories - review of 8 years' experience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kessler, Anja; Siekmann, Lothar; Weykamp, Cas; Geilenkeuser, Wolf Jochen; Dreazen, Orna; Middle, Jonathan; Schumann, Gerhard

    2013-05-01

    We describe an External Quality Assessment Scheme (EQAS) intended for reference (calibration) laboratories in laboratory medicine and supervised by the Scientific Division of the International Federation of Clinical Chemistry and Laboratory Medicine and the responsible Committee on Traceability in Laboratory Medicine. The official EQAS website, RELA (www.dgkl-rfb.de:81), is open to interested parties. Information on all requirements for participation and results of surveys are published annually. As an additional feature, the identity of every participant in relation to the respective results is disclosed. The results of various groups of measurands (metabolites and substrates, enzymes, electrolytes, glycated hemoglobins, proteins, hormones, thyroid hormones, therapeutic drugs) are discussed in detail. The RELA system supports reference measurement laboratories preparing for accreditation according to ISO 17025 and ISO 15195. Participation in a scheme such as RELA is one of the requirements for listing of the services of a calibration laboratory by the Joint Committee on Traceability in Laboratory Medicine.

  17. A Regression-Based Family of Measures for Full-Reference Image Quality Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oszust Mariusz

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The advances in the development of imaging devices resulted in the need of an automatic quality evaluation of displayed visual content in a way that is consistent with human visual perception. In this paper, an approach to full-reference image quality assessment (IQA is proposed, in which several IQA measures, representing different approaches to modelling human visual perception, are efficiently combined in order to produce objective quality evaluation of examined images, which is highly correlated with evaluation provided by human subjects. In the paper, an optimisation problem of selection of several IQA measures for creating a regression-based IQA hybrid measure, or a multimeasure, is defined and solved using a genetic algorithm. Experimental evaluation on four largest IQA benchmarks reveals that the multimeasures obtained using the proposed approach outperform state-of-the-art full-reference IQA techniques, including other recently developed fusion approaches.

  18. Preliminary assessment of the health and environmental effects of coal utilization in the midwest. Volume I. Energy scenarios, technology characterizations, air and water resource impacts, and health effects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    1977-01-01

    An initial evaluation of the major health and environmental issues associated with increased coal use in the six midwestern states of Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, and Wisconsin is presented. Using an integrated assessment approach, the evaluation proceeds from a base-line scenario of energy demand and facility siting for the period 1975 to 2020. Emphasis is placed on impacts from coal extraction, land reclamation, coal combustion for electrical generation, and coal gasification. The range of potential impacts and constraints is illustrated by a second scenario that represents an expected upper limit for coal utilization in Illinois. Included are: (1) a characterization of the energy demand and siting scenarios, coal related technologies, and coal resources, and (2) the related impacts on air quality, water availability, water quality, and human health.

  19. Combining Reference Class Forecasting with Overconfidence Theory for Better Risk Assessment of Transport Infrastructure Investments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Leleur, Steen; Salling, Kim Bang; Pilkauskiene, Inga

    2015-01-01

    -benefit analysis results that are modified by taking historical risk experience into account. This article seeks to add to this progress in risk assessment methodology in two ways: first it suggests to apply reference class forecasting (RCF) in a flexible way where the effort is focused on formulating the best...... simulation-based risk examination named SIMRISK is concluded to provide a new ‘in-depth’ possibility for dealing with uncertainties inherent to transport decision making based on socioeconomic analysis. In addition a further research perspective is outlined.......Assessing the risks of infrastructure investments has become a topic of growing importance. This is due to a sad record of implemented projects with cost overruns and demand shortfalls leading, in retrospect, to the finding that there is a need for better risk assessment of transport infrastructure...

  20. Women referred for occupational risk assessment in pregnancy have no increased risk of adverse obstetric outcomes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bidstrup, Signe Brøker; Kaerlev, Linda; Thulstrup, Ane Marie

    2015-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: Our aim was to study the association between pregnant women's referral status for occupational risk assessment, and their risk of preterm delivery (METHODS: In a cohort study, 1,202 deliveries among.......72-1.17). CONCLUSION: The women who are referred for occupational risk assessment at two large occupational university departments are not at an increased risk of preterm birth or of delivering low birth weight children. This may reflect that reproductive hazards in Danish workplaces are limited and....../or that the occupational risk assessment and counselling of pregnant women are preventing these selected adverse pregnancy outcomes. FUNDING: The Research Unit at Department of Occupational and Environmental Medicine at Bispebjerg Hospital supported the study financially. TRIAL REGISTRATION: not relevant. The study...

  1. Reduced reference image quality assessment based on wavelet domain singular value decomposition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Fei-Yan; Sun, Tao; Tu, Ya-Fei; Qin, Qian-Qing

    2009-10-01

    The traditional image quality assessment methods based on pixels have many limitations. Such as the lack of consideration of the image structure, or the need of a complete reference image. To avoid these problems, this paper presented a new image quality assessment method based on weighted singular value decomposition in wavelet domain (WWSVD). In this algorithm, the singular value vector difference and the mean bias between the original image and the distorted image are considered to evaluate the distortion degree. Many tests were conducted to evaluate the performance, the 227 testing images of JPEG2000 compression were come from the Live Image Quality Assessment Database, Release 2005. The results showed a great improvement in both the consistency with the DMOS (Differential Mean Opinion Score, DMOS) and the stability when applied to a large range of compression rates.

  2. Earthquake induced liquefaction hazard, probability and risk assessment in the city of Kolkata, India: its historical perspective and deterministic scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nath, Sankar Kumar; Srivastava, Nishtha; Ghatak, Chitralekha; Adhikari, Manik Das; Ghosh, Ambarish; Sinha Ray, S. P.

    2017-09-01

    Liquefaction-induced ground failure is one amongst the leading causes of infrastructure damage due to the impact of large earthquakes in unconsolidated, non-cohesive, water saturated alluvial terrains. The city of Kolkata is located on the potentially liquefiable alluvial fan deposits of Ganga-Bramhaputra-Meghna Delta system with subsurface litho-stratigraphic sequence comprising of varying percentages of clay, cohesionless silt, sand, and gravel interbedded with decomposed wood and peat. Additionally, the region has moderately shallow groundwater condition especially in the post-monsoon seasons. In view of burgeoning population, there had been unplanned expansion of settlements in the hazardous geological, geomorphological, and hydrological conditions exposing the city to severe liquefaction hazard. The 1897 Shillong and 1934 Bihar-Nepal earthquakes both of M w 8.1 reportedly induced Modified Mercalli Intensity of IV-V and VI-VII respectively in the city reportedly triggering widespread to sporadic liquefaction condition with surface manifestation of sand boils, lateral spreading, ground subsidence, etc., thus posing a strong case for liquefaction potential analysis in the terrain. With the motivation of assessing seismic hazard, vulnerability, and risk of the city of Kolkata through a consorted federal funding stipulated for all the metros and upstart urban centers in India located in BIS seismic zones III, IV, and V with population more than one million, an attempt has been made here to understand the liquefaction susceptibility condition of Kolkata under the impact of earthquake loading employing modern multivariate techniques and also to predict deterministic liquefaction scenario of the city in the event of a probabilistic seismic hazard condition with 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years and a return period of 475 years. We conducted in-depth geophysical and geotechnical investigations in the city encompassing 435 km2 area. The stochastically

  3. Assessment of air quality microsensors versus reference methods: The EuNetAir joint exercise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borrego, C.; Costa, A. M.; Ginja, J.; Amorim, M.; Coutinho, M.; Karatzas, K.; Sioumis, Th.; Katsifarakis, N.; Konstantinidis, K.; De Vito, S.; Esposito, E.; Smith, P.; André, N.; Gérard, P.; Francis, L. A.; Castell, N.; Schneider, P.; Viana, M.; Minguillón, M. C.; Reimringer, W.; Otjes, R. P.; von Sicard, O.; Pohle, R.; Elen, B.; Suriano, D.; Pfister, V.; Prato, M.; Dipinto, S.; Penza, M.

    2016-12-01

    The 1st EuNetAir Air Quality Joint Intercomparison Exercise organized in Aveiro (Portugal) from 13th-27th October 2014, focused on the evaluation and assessment of environmental gas, particulate matter (PM) and meteorological microsensors, versus standard air quality reference methods through an experimental urban air quality monitoring campaign. The IDAD-Institute of Environment and Development Air Quality Mobile Laboratory was placed at an urban traffic location in the city centre of Aveiro to conduct continuous measurements with standard equipment and reference analysers for CO, NOx, O3, SO2, PM10, PM2.5, temperature, humidity, wind speed and direction, solar radiation and precipitation. The comparison of the sensor data generated by different microsensor-systems installed side-by-side with reference analysers, contributes to the assessment of the performance and the accuracy of microsensor-systems in a real-world context, and supports their calibration and further development. The overall performance of the sensors in terms of their statistical metrics and measurement profile indicates significant differences in the results depending on the platform and on the sensors considered. In terms of pollutants, some promising results were observed for O3 (r2: 0.12-0.77), CO (r2: 0.53-0.87), and NO2 (r2: 0.02-0.89). For PM (r2: 0.07-0.36) and SO2 (r2: 0.09-0.20) the results show a poor performance with low correlation coefficients between the reference and microsensor measurements. These field observations under specific environmental conditions suggest that the relevant microsensor platforms, if supported by the proper post processing and data modelling tools, have enormous potential for new strategies in air quality control.

  4. Reference manual for toxicity and exposure assessment and risk characterization. CERCLA Baseline Risk Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1995-03-01

    The Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA, 1980) (CERCLA or Superfund) was enacted to provide a program for identifying and responding to releases of hazardous substances into the environment. The Superfund Amendments and Reauthorization Act (SARA, 1986) was enacted to strengthen CERCLA by requiring that site clean-ups be permanent, and that they use treatments that significantly reduce the volume, toxicity, or mobility of hazardous pollutants. The National Oil and Hazardous Substances Pollution Contingency Plan (NCP) (USEPA, 1985; USEPA, 1990) implements the CERCLA statute, presenting a process for (1) identifying and prioritizing sites requiring remediation and (2) assessing the extent of remedial action required at each site. The process includes performing two studies: a Remedial Investigation (RI) to evaluate the nature, extent, and expected consequences of site contamination, and a Feasibility Study (FS) to select an appropriate remedial alternative adequate to reduce such risks to acceptable levels. An integral part of the RI is the evaluation of human health risks posed by hazardous substance releases. This risk evaluation serves a number of purposes within the overall context of the RI/FS process, the most essential of which is to provide an understanding of ``baseline`` risks posed by a given site. Baseline risks are those risks that would exist if no remediation or institutional controls are applied at a site. This document was written to (1) guide risk assessors through the process of interpreting EPA BRA policy and (2) help risk assessors to discuss EPA policy with regulators, decision makers, and stakeholders as it relates to conditions at a particular DOE site.

  5. Using Scenarios to Assess Policy Mixes for Resource Efficiency and Eco-Innovation in Different Fiscal Policy Frameworks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laurent Bontoux

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available There is no longer any doubt that the European Union needs to manage a transition towards a sustainable economy and society. The complexity of such an enterprise is creating major challenges that require a future oriented systemic approach, looking at the EU economy and society as a whole, and going beyond current agendas and policies. The purpose of the JRC foresight study “2035: Paths towards a sustainable EU economy” was to explore how this could be possible. Resource efficiency was at the core of the reflection. This created a context where the fiscal framework was perceived by the experts involved as essential in driving (or hindering the evolution towards a more sustainable future. Societal values (individualistic or collaborative were selected as the other axis around which to construct four scenarios. A large number of other drivers of change were taken into account to construct scenarios of a sufficient depth and detail to generate a systemic understanding. The scenarios were used in an original way to help experts identify which policy mixes would be best adapted to push each scenario towards a more sustainable future, while respecting its own logic and constraints. For each scenario, 6 policy domains considered the most relevant were selected among more than 50. Research and innovation, new business models and education were considered important for all four scenarios. The other domains were natural resources management, regulation, ethics, employment, transparency, governance, social protection, and systems integration. The study illustrates how powerful a policy framework which is fiscally supportive of environmental sustainability can be in supporting resource efficiency and that this can be achieved in very different ways depending on the prevailing social values. It also shows how a combination of actions in other policy areas can be used to drive sustainability further. In sum, this work illustrates how the creative use of

  6. Towards an integrated approach to natural hazards risk assessment using GIS: with reference to bushfires.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Keping; Blong, Russell; Jacobson, Carol

    2003-04-01

    This paper develops a GIS-based integrated approach to risk assessment in natural hazards, with reference to bushfires. The challenges for undertaking this approach have three components: data integration, risk assessment tasks, and risk decision-making. First, data integration in GIS is a fundamental step for subsequent risk assessment tasks and risk decision-making. A series of spatial data integration issues within GIS such as geographical scales and data models are addressed. Particularly, the integration of both physical environmental data and socioeconomic data is examined with an example linking remotely sensed data and areal census data in GIS. Second, specific risk assessment tasks, such as hazard behavior simulation and vulnerability assessment, should be undertaken in order to understand complex hazard risks and provide support for risk decision-making. For risk assessment tasks involving heterogeneous data sources, the selection of spatial analysis units is important. Third, risk decision-making concerns spatial preferences and/or patterns, and a multicriteria evaluation (MCE)-GIS typology for risk decision-making is presented that incorporates three perspectives: spatial data types, data models, and methods development. Both conventional MCE methods and artificial intelligence-based methods with GIS are identified to facilitate spatial risk decision-making in a rational and interpretable way. Finally, the paper concludes that the integrated approach can be used to assist risk management of natural hazards, in theory and in practice.

  7. Comparison of intravascular ultrasound and angiographic assessement of coronary reference segment size in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Lisette Okkels; Thayssen, Per; Mintz, Gary S

    2008-01-01

    During percutaneous coronary intervention, the reference segment is assessed angiographically. This report described the discrepancy between angiographic and intravascular ultrasound (IVUS) assessment of reference segment size in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus. Preintervention IVUS was used...... to study 62 de novo lesions in 41 patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus. The lesion site was the image slice with the smallest lumen cross-sectional area (CSA). The proximal and distal reference segments were the most normal-looking segments within 5 mm proximal and distal to the lesion. Plaque burden...... diameter was 1.56 +/- 0.55 mm. The mean difference between the IVUS reference lumen diameter and angiographic reference lumen diameter was 0.18 +/- 0.44 mm. Plaque burden in the reference segment correlated inversely with the difference between IVUS and quantitative coronary angiographic reference lumen...

  8. Update of the HL-LHC operational scenarios for proton operation

    CERN Document Server

    Metral, Elias; Antoniou, Fanouria; Appleby, Robert Barrie; Arduini, Gianluigi; Barranco Garcia, Javier; Baudrenghien, Philippe; Biancacci, Nicolo; Bracco, Chiara; Bruce, Roderik; Buffat, Xavier; Calaga, Rama; Carver, Lee Robert; Chapochnikova, Elena; Crouch, Matthew Paul; De Maria, Riccardo; Fartoukh, Stephane; Gamba, Davide; Giovannozzi, Massimo; Goncalves Jorge, Patrik; Hofle, Wolfgang; Iadarola, Giovanni; Karastathis, Nikos; Lasheen, Alexandre; Mastoridis, Themistoklis; Medina Medrano, Luis Eduardo; Mereghetti, Alessio; Mirarchi, Daniele; Muratori, Bruno; Papadopoulou, Parthena Stefania; Papaphilippou, Yannis; Pellegrini, Dario; Pieloni, Tatiana; Redaelli, Stefano; Rumolo, Giovanni; Salvant, Benoit; Solfaroli Camillocci, Matteo; Tambasco, Claudia; Tomas Garcia, Rogelio; Valuch, Daniel; CERN. Geneva. ATS Department

    2018-01-01

    The main aim of this document is to have a clearly identified set of beam and machine parameters to be used for numerical simulations and performance assessment. Two scenarios (referring only to the operation at the nominal beam energy of 7 TeV) are discussed: i) Nominal scenario (levelling at a luminosity of 5E34 cm-2s-1) ii) Ultimate scenario (levelling at a luminosity of 7.5E34 cm-2s-1)

  9. MIV Project: Mission scenario

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ravazzotti, Mariolina T.; Jørgensen, John Leif; Thuesen, Gøsta

    1997-01-01

    Under the ESA contract #11453/95/NL/JG(SC), aiming at assessing the feasibility of Rendez-vous and docking of unmanned spacecrafts, a msiision scenario was defined. This report describes the secquence of manouvres and task allocations for such missions.......Under the ESA contract #11453/95/NL/JG(SC), aiming at assessing the feasibility of Rendez-vous and docking of unmanned spacecrafts, a msiision scenario was defined. This report describes the secquence of manouvres and task allocations for such missions....

  10. Management of acute sports injuries and medical conditions by South Dakota high school head coaches: assessment via case scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cross, Patrick S; Karges, Joy R; Horkey, Melissa Ann; Kolb, Ginger A; Alexander, Krystle L; Knippling, Amy L; Jacobsen, Jordan Anthony

    2012-03-01

    When medical coverage does not exist at games and practices, coaches are often responsible for the management of acute conditions. The question that arises is whether they make proper medical decisions concerning the health and safety of their athletes. The purpose of this study was to assess high school head coaches' decision-making skills related to acute medical condition management through the use of case scenarios. A cover letter/web link to the web-based survey was e-mailed to all 2008-2009 school year South Dakota high school head athletic coaches. Head coaches were found to be responsible for the immediate care of injured athletes at practice (87.2 percent) and home competitions (72.3 percent). Less than 75.0 percent of coaches reported feeling "prepared" or "somewhat prepared" to handle 11 of the 16 types of acute athletic injuries and medical conditions presented, with less than 75.0 percent of coaches giving "appropriate" or "overly cautious" responses to eight of the 17 cases. Little to no relationship was found between perceived level of preparedness for treating various conditions and appropriateness of responses. A significant difference was found in appropriateness of decisions based on level of athlete (68.9 percent starters, 79.3 percent non-starters) and event situation (66.5 percent important events, 76.6 percent non-important events). In South Dakota, high school coaches are most often responsible for the initial management of acute injuries; yet, a large percentage of coaches did not feel "prepared" to manage various conditions and/or gave "inappropriate" responses to multiple cases. Furthermore, the level of athlete and the event situation may influence coaches' decisions. Further education may include the proper management of head and neck injuries, multiple concussions, dislocations, heat emergencies, eye injuries and internal organ injuries. Health care workers can be an integral part of training coaches in the care of acute conditions, as

  11. Results of extended plant tests using more realistic exposure scenarios for improving environmental risk assessment of veterinary pharmaceuticals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richter, Elisabeth; Berkner, Silvia; Ebert, Ina; Förster, Bernhard; Graf, Nadin; Herrchen, Monika; Kühnen, Ute; Römbke, Jörg; Simon, Markus

    2016-01-01

    Residues of veterinary medicinal products (VMPs) enter the environment via application of manure onto agricultural areas where in particular antibiotics can cause phytotoxicity. Terrestrial plant tests according to OECD guideline 208 are part of the environmental risk assessment of VMPs. However, this standard approach might not be appropriate for VMPs which form non-extractable residues or transformation products in manure and manure-amended soil. Therefore, a new test design with a more realistic exposure scenario via manure application is needed. This paper presents an extended plant test and its experimental verification with the veterinary antibiotics florfenicol and tylosin tartrate. With each substance, plant tests with four different types of application were conducted: standard tests according to OECD 208 and three tests with application of test substance via spiked manure either without storage, aerobically incubated, or anaerobically incubated for different time periods. In standard tests, the lowest NOEC was <0.06 mg/kg dry soil for florfenicol and 16.0 mg/kg dry soil for tylosin tartrate. Pre-tests showed that plant growth was not impaired at 22-g fresh manure/kg dry soil, which therefore was used for the final tests. The application of the test substances via freshly spiked as well as via aerobically incubated manure had no significant influence on the test results. Application of florfenicol via anaerobically incubated manure increased the EC10 by a factor up to 282 and 540 for half-maximum and for maximum incubation period, respectively. For tylosin tartrate, this factor amounted to 64 at half-maximum and 61 at maximum incubation period. The reduction of phytotoxicity was generally stronger when using cattle manure than pig manure and particularly in tests with cattle manure phytotoxicity decreased over the incubation period. The verification of the extended plant test showed that seedling emergence and growth are comparable to a standard OECD

  12. Energy technology scenarios for use in water resources assessments under Section 13a of the Federal Nonnuclear Energy Research and Development Act

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    1980-10-01

    This document presents two estimates of future growth of emerging energy technology in the years 1985, 1990, and 2000 to be used as a basis for conducting Water Resources Council assessments as required by the Nonnuclear Energy Research and Development Act of 1974. The two scenarios are called the high world oil price (HWOP) and low world oil price (LWOP) cases. A national-level summary of the ASA tabulations is shown in Appendix A; the scenarios are presented at the ASA level of detail in Appendix B. The two scenarios were generally derived from assumptions of the Second National Energy Plant (NEP II), including estimates of high and low world oil price cases, growth rate of GNP, and related economic parameters. The overall national energy growth inherent in these assumptions was expressed as a detailed projection of various energy fuel cycles through use of the Fossil-2 model and regionalized through use of the Strategic Environmental Assessment System (SEAS). These scenarios are for the use of regional analysts in examining the availability of water for and the potential impacts of future growth of emerging energy technology in selected river basins of the Nation, as required by Section 13(a).

  13. Women referred for occupational risk assessment in pregnancy have no increased risk of adverse obstetric outcomes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bidstrup, Signe Brøker; Kaerlev, Linda; Thulstrup, Ane Marie

    2015-01-01

    pregnant women referred to two Danish clinics of occupational medicine (Copenhagen and Aarhus) from 1984 to 2010 were compared with the referred women's 1,077 non-referred pregnancy outcomes and with the pregnancy outcomes of 345,467 gainfully employed women from the same geographical areas and time period...... with a higher birth weight than the average employee (difference 47.8 g; 95% CI: 19.9-75.6), but the outcomes did not differ with respect to gestational age (difference 0.05 weeks; 95% CI: -0.06-0.17), preterm delivery (OR: 0.8; 95% CI: 0.62-1.04), LBW (OR: 0.81; 95% CI: 0.52-1.26) or SGA (OR: 0.92; 95% CI: 0....../or that the occupational risk assessment and counselling of pregnant women are preventing these selected adverse pregnancy outcomes. FUNDING: The Research Unit at Department of Occupational and Environmental Medicine at Bispebjerg Hospital supported the study financially. TRIAL REGISTRATION: not relevant. The study...

  14. The Epidemic of Neonatal Abstinence Syndrome, Historical References of Its’ Origins, Assessment, and Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Enrique Gomez-Pomar

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Neonatal abstinence syndrome (NAS refers to a constellation of signs that are present in some newborn infants resulting from the abrupt cessation of passive transfer of maternal opioids used during pregnancy. The classic NAS refers to infants born to mothers who used opioids during pregnancy, but the term has broadened to include infants whose mothers have used or abused other psychoactive substances during pregnancy that contribute to the expression of the syndrome. Pregnant women who use opioids do so illicitly, and/or as medically prescribed for pain relief, and/or as medication assisted treatment for opioid dependence. The first case of NAS in infants and the subsequent treatment (or lack thereof was reported in 1875 and was called Congenital Morphinism. By 2012, the incidence of NAS increased to more than 30 per 1,000 hospital live births, along with an increase in the number of infants being treated pharmacologically for NAS, resulting in an increase in the length of stay and healthcare expenses. We present historical references on NAS, the various factors and events that led to its increasing prevalence and today’s current epidemic. We also review the current tools to assess infants with NAS and treatment options in its management.

  15. PAHs in baby food: assessment of three different processing techniques for the preparation of reference materials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huertas-Pérez, José Fernando; Bordajandi, Luisa R; Sejerøe-Olsen, Berit; Emteborg, Håkan; Baù, Andrea; Schimmel, Heinz; Dabrio, Marta

    2015-04-01

    A feasibility study for producing a matrix reference material for selected polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in baby food is reported. A commercially available baby food, containing carrots, potatoes, tomato, white beans and meat, was spiked with the so-called 15 + 1 PAHs included in the PAHs priority list for food of the EU, at a mass fraction level of 1 μg/kg. The contaminated baby food was further processed by autoclaving, freezing or freeze drying. The homogeneity of the three materials (bottle-to-bottle variation) and their short-term (4 weeks) and long-term (18 months) stability at different temperatures were assessed. To this end, an analytical method based on a solid-liquid extraction followed by cleaning up with gel permeation chromatography (GPC) and solid phase extraction (SPE) and GC-IDMS determination, was validated in-house. It could be demonstrated that the procedure fulfilled the demands for application to the homogeneity and isochronous stability studies for the candidate reference materials targeted here. All three materials proved to be sufficiently homogeneous for the intended use. Measurements on the autoclaved material provided the most promising results in terms of envisaged shelf life, although freeze drying was also found to be a suitable processing technique for most of the investigated PAHs. These results are an important step towards the development of a matrix reference material for PAHs in a processed food matrix in a presentation very similar to routine samples.

  16. EDITORIAL: Where next with global environmental scenarios? Where next with global environmental scenarios?

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Neill, Brian; Pulver, Simone; Van Deveer, Stacy; Garb, Yaakov

    2008-12-01

    -oriented scenario exercises also generate scenario products, but such products are recognized as meaningful mostly (or only) in the social context in which they were developed. It should be noted that those seeking to understand the functions, implications and utility of scenarios can approach analysis of scenarios and their impacts from either perspective—focusing attention on product outcomes and influence or assessing procedural and contextual dynamics and implications. Papers in this issue examine various aspects of scenario products, scenario processes and their interactions, with specific reference to global environmental change scenarios. Hulme and Dessai (2008) use the product-process distinction as a starting point for developing a framework to evaluate the success of scenario exercises. They identify 'prediction success', 'decision success' and 'learning success' as three evaluation metrics for scenarios, with the first two most relevant to scenario products and the last emphasizing procedural aspects of scenarios. They suggest that viewing scenarios primarily as products implies examining how closely actual outcomes have matched envisioned outcomes, while viewing them primarily as processes suggests evaluating the extent to which scenarios engaged participants and enabled their learning. O'Neill and Nakicenovic (2008) focus on Hulme and Dessai's evaluation metric, learning. Based on a review of six scenario/assessment exercises, they ask if and how scenario products have incorporated comparative assessments of results in order to enable cumulative learning across scenario efforts. The authors conclude that, although participating modelling teams have benefited greatly from the process of scenario activities and applied that learning to other scenario exercises in which they engage, learning from comparative assessments of scenario products has been rather limited; the latter due to the limited time and resources invested in comparative analysis. Pitcher (2009) speaks

  17. Subjective memory ability and long-term forgetting in patients referred for neuropsychological assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sieberen Pieter Van Der Werf

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available It has been suggested that the memory complaints of patients who are not impaired on formal memory tests may reflect accelerated forgetting. We examined this hypothesis by comparing the one-week delayed recall and recognition test performance of outpatients who were referred for neuropsychological assessment and who had normal memory performance during standard memory assessment with that of a non-patient control group. Both groups performed equally in verbal learning and delayed recall. However, after one week, the patients performed worse than controls on both recall and recognition tests. Although subjective memory ability predicted short-term memory function in patients, it did not predict long-term delayed forgetting rates in either the patients or controls. Thus, long-term delayed recall and recognition intervals provided no additional value to explain poor subjective memory ability in the absence of objective memory deficits.

  18. Life cycle assessment of forecasting scenarios for urban water management: A first implementation of the WaLA model on Paris suburban area.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loubet, Philippe; Roux, Philippe; Guérin-Schneider, Laetitia; Bellon-Maurel, Véronique

    2016-03-01

    A framework and an associated modeling tool to perform life cycle assessment (LCA) of urban water system, namely the WaLA model, has been recently developed. In this paper, the WaLA model is applied to a real case study: the urban water system of the Paris suburban area, in France. It aims to verify the capacity of the model to provide environmental insights to stakeholder's issues related to future trends influencing the system (e.g., evolution of water demand, increasing water scarcity) or policy responses (e.g., choices of water resources and technologies). This is achieved by evaluating a baseline scenario for 2012 and several forecasting scenarios for 2022 and 2050. The scenarios are designed through the modeling tool WaLA, which is implemented in Simulink/Matlab: it combines components representing the different technologies, users and resources of the UWS. The life cycle inventories of the technologies and users components include water quantity and quality changes, specific operation (electricity, chemicals) and infrastructures data (construction materials). The methods selected for the LCIA are midpoint ILCD, midpoint water deprivation impacts at the sub-river basin scale, and endpoint Impact 2002+. The results of the baseline scenario show that wastewater treatment plants have the highest impacts compared to drinking water production and distribution, as traditionally encountered in LCA of UWS. The results of the forecasting scenarios show important changes in water deprivation impacts due to water management choices or effects of climate change. They also enable to identify tradeoffs with other impact categories and to compare several scenarios. It suggests the capacity of the model to deliver information for decision making about future policies. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Depression: Current Scenario with reference to India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Megha Luthra

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Depression is an illness characterized by persistent sadness and a loss of interest in activities that you normally enjoy, accompanied by an inability to carry out daily activities, for at least two weeks. In addition, people with depression normally have several of the following symptoms: Loss of energy, Change in appetite, Sleeping more or less, Anxiety, Reduced concentration, Indecisiveness, Restlessness, Feelings of worthlessness, Guilt or hopelessness, Thoughts of self-harm or suicide, (WHO World Health Day Campaign Essentials

  20. On the need for bias correction in regional climate scenarios to assess climate change impacts on river runoff

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muerth, M. J.; Gauvin St-Denis, B.; Ricard, S.; Velázquez, J. A.; Schmid, J.; Minville, M.; Caya, D.; Chaumont, D.; Ludwig, R.; Turcotte, R.

    2012-09-01

    In climate change impact research, the assessment of future river runoff as well as the catchment scale water balance is impeded by different sources of modeling uncertainty. Some research has already been done in order to quantify the uncertainty of climate projections originating from the climate models and the downscaling techniques as well as from the internal variability evaluated from climate model member ensembles. Yet, the use of hydrological models adds another layer of incertitude. Within the QBic3 project (Québec-Bavaria International Collaboration on Climate Change) the relative contributions to the overall uncertainty from the whole model chain (from global climate models to water management models) are investigated using an ensemble of multiple climate and hydrological models. Although there are many options to downscale global climate projections to the regional scale, recent impact studies tend to use Regional Climate Models (RCMs). One reason for that is that the physical coherence between atmospheric and land-surface variables is preserved. The coherence between temperature and precipitation is of particular interest in hydrology. However, the regional climate model outputs often are biased compared to the observed climatology of a given region. Therefore, biases in those outputs are often corrected to reproduce historic runoff conditions from hydrological models using them, even if those corrections alter the relationship between temperature and precipitation. So, as bias correction may affect the consistency between RCM output variables, the use of correction techniques and even the use of (biased) climate model data itself is sometimes disputed among scientists. For those reasons, the effect of bias correction on simulated runoff regimes and the relative change in selected runoff indicators is explored. If it affects the conclusion of climate change analysis in hydrology, we should consider it as a source of uncertainty. If not, the

  1. Assessment of Patients Referred to Specialty Dental Hospitals for Dental Implant Procedure: A Retrospective Cohort Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thukral, Rishi; Kumar, Anuj; Prasant, M C; Punjabi, Krunal M; Paliwal, Aparna; Patel, Kunal

    2016-06-01

    One of the most common and effective ways of replacing missing teeth is by dental implants. Both quality and quantity of bone along with the area of implant placement govern the prognosis of the implant procedure. Certain risk factors predispose the implant treatment to high failure rate. Hence, we assessed the implant patients who were referred from private practitioners to the specialty hospitals from 2010 to 2014. All the patients being referred from private clinics to the specialty dental hospital for the purpose of prosthetic rehabilitation by dental implants from June 2010 to July 2014 were included in the present study. Skilled oral and maxillofacial surgeons were appointed for performing the implant surgical procedures. Prosthetic rehabilitation was done after 6 to 8 weeks and after 10 to 14 weeks in implant cases without and with bone augmentation procedures respectively. Distribution of dental implants based on the indications, location, dimension of augmentation procedure, and complication of implants was analyzed and assessed for the level of significance. Of the patients, 712 were females, while the remaining were males. Most of the patients were in the age group of 50 to 59 years. As compared with completely edentulous patients, most of the patients required rehabilitation by a single implant. Maximum dental implants were placed in maxillary premolar region and mandibular first molar region. Over 1,000 cases in this study required rehabilitation by augmentation procedure. Partially edentulous patients are most commonly referred to specialized dental hospitals for prosthetic rehabilitation by dental implants, mostly with the purpose of implant placement. Failure rate can be minimized by following strict patient selection protocols along with following a standard surgical criterion. Following standard surgical protocols and strict treatment planning, prognosis of the dental implant procedures can be improved to a greater extent, thereby increasing its

  2. A biological tool to assess flow connectivity in reference temporary streams from the Mediterranean Basin

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cid, N., E-mail: ncid@ub.edu [Grup de Recerca “Freshwater Ecology and Management (FEM)”, Departament d' Ecologia, Universitat de Barcelona, Catalonia (Spain); Verkaik, I. [Grup de Recerca “Freshwater Ecology and Management (FEM)”, Departament d' Ecologia, Universitat de Barcelona, Catalonia (Spain); García-Roger, E.M. [Grup de Recerca “Freshwater Ecology and Management (FEM)”, Departament d' Ecologia, Universitat de Barcelona, Catalonia (Spain); Institut Cavanilles de Biodiversitat i Biologia Evolutiva, Universitat de València (Spain); Rieradevall, M.; Bonada, N. [Grup de Recerca “Freshwater Ecology and Management (FEM)”, Departament d' Ecologia, Universitat de Barcelona, Catalonia (Spain); Sánchez-Montoya, M.M. [Department of Ecology and Hydrology, Regional Campus of International Excellence “Campus Mare Nostrum”—University of Murcia (Spain); Leibniz-Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries (IGB), Berlin (Germany); Gómez, R.; Suárez, M.L.; Vidal-Abarca, M.R. [Department of Ecology and Hydrology, Regional Campus of International Excellence “Campus Mare Nostrum”—University of Murcia (Spain); Demartini, D.; Buffagni, A.; Erba, S. [Instituto di Ricerca Sulle Acque (CNR-IRSA) (Italy); Karaouzas, I.; Skoulikidis, N. [Hellenic Center for Marine Research (HCMR) (Greece); Prat, N. [Grup de Recerca “Freshwater Ecology and Management (FEM)”, Departament d' Ecologia, Universitat de Barcelona, Catalonia (Spain)

    2016-01-01

    Many streams in the Mediterranean Basin have temporary flow regimes. While timing for seasonal drought is predictable, they undergo strong inter-annual variability in flow intensity. This high hydrological variability and associated ecological responses challenge the ecological status assessment of temporary streams, particularly when setting reference conditions. This study examined the effects of flow connectivity in aquatic macroinvertebrates from seven reference temporary streams across the Mediterranean Basin where hydrological variability and flow conditions are well studied. We tested for the effect of flow cessation on two streamflow indices and on community composition, and, by performing random forest and classification tree analyses we identified important biological predictors for classifying the aquatic state either as flowing or disconnected pools. Flow cessation was critical for one of the streamflow indices studied and for community composition. Macroinvertebrate families found to be important for classifying the aquatic state were Hydrophilidae, Simuliidae, Hydropsychidae, Planorbiidae, Heptageniidae and Gerridae. For biological traits, trait categories associated to feeding habits, food, locomotion and substrate relation were the most important and provided more accurate predictions compared to taxonomy. A combination of selected metrics and associated thresholds based on the most important biological predictors (i.e. Bio-AS Tool) were proposed in order to assess the aquatic state in reference temporary streams, especially in the absence of hydrological data. Although further development is needed, the tool can be of particular interest for monitoring, restoration, and conservation purposes, representing an important step towards an adequate management of temporary rivers not only in the Mediterranean Basin but also in other regions vulnerable to the effects of climate change. - Highlights: • The effect of flow connectivity on macroinvertebrate

  3. Assessment of locomotion behavior in adult Zebrafish after acute exposure to different pharmacological reference compounds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pankaj Gupta

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Objectives: The objective of the present study was to assess locomotor behavior of adult zebrafish after acute exposure to different pharmacological reference compounds. Materials and Methods: Adult zebrafish of 4-5-months-old were exposed to different concentrations of known reference compounds for 15 min. The test was conducted separately for each drug concentration as well as control. Locomotor activity parameters viz. distance travelled, speed, total mobile time, and total immobile time were recorded for each animal during the exposure period. Results: Out of 11 compounds tested, nine compounds showed decrease in locomotor behavior with significant changes in distance travelled, speed, total mobile time, and total immobile time. Caffeine exhibited biphasic response in locomotion behavior, while scopolamine failed to induce any significant changes. Conclusion: In view of the above findings, these results suggested that exposure of adult zebrafish with different known compounds produce the expected changes in the locomotion behavior; therefore, adult zebrafish can be used an alternative approach for the assessment of new chemical entities for their effect on locomotor behavior.

  4. Hazard Assessment for POPOCATÉPETL Volcano Using Hasset: a Probability Event Tree Tool to Evaluate Future Eruptive Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferrés, D.; Reyes Pimentel, T. A.; Espinasa-Pereña, R.; Nieto, A.; Sobradelo, R.; Flores, X.; González Huesca, A. E.; Ramirez, A.

    2013-05-01

    -eruptive crisis of April-May 2012, in order to identify the most probable processes in which this unrest could have developed and to contribute to the diagnosis task. In this research, we propose a comparison between the processes identified in this preliminary volcanic event tree and another elaborated using a Hazard Assessment Event Tree probability tool (HASSET), built on a bayesian event tree structure, using mainly the information of the known eruptive history of Popocatépetl. The HASSET method is based on Bayesian Inference and is used to assess volcanic hazard of future eruptive scenarios, by evaluating the most relevant sources of uncertainty that play a role in estimating the future probability of occurrence of a specific volcanic event. The final goal is to find the most useful tools to make the diagnosis and prognosis of the Popocatépetl volcanic activity, integrating the known eruptive history of the volcano, the experience of the scientific committee and the information provided by the monitoring systems, in an interactive and user-friendly way.

  5. It's the Heat AND the Humidity -- Assessment of Extreme Heat Scenarios to Enable the Assessment of Climate Impacts on Public Health

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crosson, William L; Al-Hamdan, Mohammad Z.; Economou, Sigrid, A.; Estes, Maurice G.; Estes, Sue M.; Puckett, Mark; Quattrochi, Dale A

    2013-01-01

    In the United States, extreme heat is the most deadly weather-related hazard. In the face of a warming climate and urbanization, which contributes to local-scale urban heat islands, it is very likely that extreme heat events (EHEs) will become more common and more severe in the U.S. In a NASA-funded project supporting the National Climate Assessment, we are providing historical and future measures of extreme heat to enable assessments of the impacts of heat on public health over the coterminous U.S. We use atmospheric temperature and humidity information from meteorological reanalysis and from Global Climate Models (GCMs) to provide data on past and future heat events. The project s emphasis is on providing assessments of the magnitude, frequency and geographic distribution of extreme heat in the U.S. to facilitate public health studies. In our approach, long-term climate change is captured with GCM output, and the temporal and spatial characteristics of short-term extremes are represented by the reanalysis data. Two future time horizons, 2040 and 2090, are the focus of future assessments; these are compared to the recent past period of 1981-2000. We are characterizing regional-scale temperature and humidity conditions using GCM output for two climate change scenarios (A2 and A1B) defined in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). For each future period, 20 years of multi-model GCM output have been analyzed to develop a heat stress climatology based on statistics of extreme heat indicators. Differences between the two future and past periods have been used to define temperature and humidity changes on a monthly time scale and regional spatial scale. These changes, combined with hourly historical meteorological data at a spatial scale (12 km) much finer than that of GCMs, enable us to create future climate realizations, from which we compute the daily heat stress measures and related spatially-specific climatological fields. These include the mean annual

  6. Narrative quality measures in school-age children referred for language assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebert, Kerry Danahy; Mikolajczyk, Elizabeth V

    2016-08-01

    Measures of narrative quality hold promise for clinical language assessment. However, more information is needed on the validity of such measures within clinical populations. This study examined aspects of validity for two clinically-available narrative quality measures, the Narrative Scoring Scheme and a holistic scoring method, within a diverse group of children referred for speech-language assessment. Assessment records from 72 school-age children were retrospectively analysed. Narrative quality scores from oral narrative language samples were examined for expected qualities including growth with age, similarity across groups defined by gender and linguistic background and relations with other measures of language ability including norm-referenced test scores and microstructural language sample measures. External validity was supported by unbiased scores across gender and linguistic background. Concurrent, criterion-related validity was supported by strong correlations between narrative quality and some microstructural measures, as well as by the similarity in performance between the two tools. However, the expected relation with age was not present and there were few correlations between narrative quality scores and norm-referenced language tests, showing limitations in construct and criterion-referenced validity. Results provide an independent validation of these two tools and may guide clinicians looking to assess narrative quality.

  7. Urinary 1-hydroxypyrene concentration as an exposure biomarker to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in Mexican women from different hot spot scenarios and health risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pruneda-Álvarez, Lucia G; Pérez-Vázquez, Francisco J; Ruíz-Vera, Tania; Ochoa-Martínez, Ángeles C; Orta-García, Sandra T; Jiménez-Avalos, Jorge A; Pérez-Maldonado, Iván N

    2016-04-01

    Recently, in developing countries, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) have been considered contaminants of grave concern for women and children. Therefore, the aim of this study was twofold: (1) evaluate exposure assessment to PAHs using urinary 1-hydroxypyrene (1-OHP) as an exposure biomarker and (2) perform a health risk assessment in women from four different high risk scenarios in Mexico. From 2012 to 2013, in a cross-sectional study, we evaluated a total of 184 healthy women from the following scenarios: (A) indoor biomass combustion site (n = 50); (B) brick manufacturing site using different materials such as fuel sources (n = 70); (C) industrial site (n = 44); and (D) high vehicular traffic site (n = 20). 1-hydroxypyrene (1-OHP) was quantified using a high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) technique. Afterward, a probabilistic health risk assessment was performed (Monte Carlo analysis). Mean urinary 1-OHP levels found were 0.92 ± 0.92; 0.91 ± 0.83; 0.22 ± 0.19; and 0.14 ± 0.17 μg/L for scenario A, B, C, and D, respectively. Then, based on the measured urinary 1-OHP levels, the estimated median daily intake doses of pyrene were calculated: 659, 623, 162, and 77.4 ng/kg/day for the women participating in the study living in areas A, B, C, and D, respectively, and finally, the hazard quotient (HQ) was calculated (22 ± 21, 21 ± 20, 5.5 ± 5.5, and 2.6 ± 3.5; for areas A, B, C, and D, respectively), high health risk was noted for the women living in the studied communities. The data shown in this study (exposure levels to PAHs and health risk assessment) made it reasonable to conclude that the exposure levels found have a significant potential for generating adverse effects on human health in the studied scenarios.

  8. Regional Issue Identification and Assessment program (RIIA). Environmental impacts and issues of the EIA MID-MID scenario: Federal Region I (New England)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brainard, J.; Munson, J.S.

    1979-04-15

    The impacts described here for 1985 and 1990 are based on a national energy projection which assumes medium energy demand and fuel supply through 1990 but does not incorporate the policies of the National Energy Act (NEA). This scenario, referred to as the Projection Series C or the TRENDLONG MID-MID scenario, is one of six possible energy futures developed by the DOE Energy Information Administration for the Department's 1977 Annual Report to Congress. It was chosen as representative of the official DOE national energy projections when this project was initiated, prior to the passage of the National Energy Act. Since the RIIA program is part of an ongoing review of the regional impact of energy policies, the next phase will examine the National Energy Act (NEA) and initiatives suggested by the President's second National Energy Plan. However, since coal utilization increases under the NEA, in general, impacts identified in the TRENDLONG Series C Scenario should provide a framework for the discussion of impacts by NEA. The environmental impacts discussed in this volume are for Federal Region I (Maine, Vermont, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Connecticut). However, there are nine companion volumes, one for each of the other Federal Regions.

  9. Psychopathology of the General Population Referred by Primary Care Physicians for Urgent Assessment in Psychiatric Hospitals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Judith McLenan

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Objective: The aim of this study was to evaluate the type, severity and progression of psychiatric pathologies in a sample of 372 outpatients (age range 18–65 years referred by their primary general practitioners (GPs to an Urgent Referral Team (URT based in a psychiatric hospital in Aberdeen, Scotland. This team offers immediate appointments (1- to 7-day delays for rapid assessments and early interventions to the outpatients referred by their primary family doctors.Method: One-sample t-test and z statistic were used for data analysis. From the total population, a convenience sample of 40 people was selected and assessed to evaluate whether follow-up appointments after the first visit could reduce the severity of suicidal ideation, depression and anxiety in the outpatients seen by the URT. A two-sample t-test and a Wilcoxon signed-rank test were used to assess the variations in the scores during the follow-up visits.Results: We found a statistically significant prevalence of depressive disorders, comorbid with anxiety at first presentation in people who were females, white, never married, living with a partner, not studying and not in paid employment. The common presentation of borderline personality disorder and dysthymia in this population underscores its vulnerability to major socioeconomic challenges.Conclusion: The data confirmed the impact that primary care cooperation with psychiatric hospitals can have on the psychiatric system, and as a reflection, on the population’s mental health and well-being. In fact, active cooperation and early diagnosis and intervention will help detect cases at risk in the general population and reduce admissions into hospitals.

  10. An Assessment of the Canadian Federal-Provincial Crop Production Insurance Program under Future Climate Change Scenarios in Ontario

    OpenAIRE

    Li, Shuang; Ker, Alan P.

    2013-01-01

    Research and observations indicate climate change has and will have an impact on Ontario field crop production. Little research has been done to forecast how climate change might influence the Canadian Federal-Provincial Crop Insurance program, including its premium rates and reserve fund balances, in the future decades. This paper proposes using a mixture of two normal yield probability distribution model to model crop yield conditions under hypothetical climate change scenarios. Then superi...

  11. Numerical Analysis of an Intercity Bus Structure: A Simple Unifilar Model Proposal to Assess Frontal and Semifrontal Crash Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Agenor Dias de Meira Jr.

    Full Text Available Abstract To improve the safety of the intercity bus structure against impact scenarios and to reduce the injuries and death in traffic accidents it is crucial in a country with continental dimensions like Brazil, where the road transport matrix is fundamental in the traffic of people and goods. In this context in the present article, a numerical model of an intercity bus was built with elastoplastic beam implemented in a commercial software Ls-Dyna. This model was submitted to different frontal and semi frontal impact crash scenarios. With this model were analyzed different accidents which happened in the Brazilian highways, it was also simulated a frontal impact test and the results obtained were compared with the experimental results. Finally two numerical approaches were compared, they are: a simple model made with lumped masses and non-linear springs series connected, and the elastoplastic beam model. The different comparisons carried out let us validate the intercity bus model created using elastoplastic beam elements and propose to use this model as an effective tool to search for more efficient bus structural configurations against impact scenarios.

  12. Generic Screening Models for Assessing Exposures to the Public and ICRP Reference Animals and Plants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yankovich, Tamara L.; Proehl, Gerhard; Telleria, Diego [International Atomic Energy Agency, P.O. Box 100, 1400 Vienna (Austria); Berkovskyy, Volodymyr [Ukrainian Radiation Protection Institute (RPI), 53, Melnikova Street, 04050, Kiev (Ukraine)

    2014-07-01

    With the update of the IAEA Fundamental Safety Principles (SF-1) stating the objective to protect people and the environment from harmful effects of ionizing radiation, it has been necessary to update International Basic Safety Standards (BSS) on Radiation Protection and Safety of Radiation Sources and the underlying safety guides and technical documents to provide guidance on how this could be achieved in practice. The current paper provides an update on the status and plans to revise the IAEA Safety Report 'Generic Models for Use in Assessing the Impact of Discharges of Radioactive Substances to the Environment' (SRS 19) that was published in 2001. The models of SRS 19 (2001), which was focused on assessment of exposures to the public, is being expanded into three volumes that provide methodologies for screening assessments for the public, as well as for flora and fauna. The revised SRS 19 guide will ultimately facilitate the application of screening models for different levels of assessment using updated parameter values from database that have been developed as part of the IAEA's EMRAS (Environmental Modelling for Radiation Safety) and EMRAS II international model validation programmes. The scope of the revised SRS 19 covers prospective screening assessment of doses to the representative person and Reference Animals and Plants (RAPs), and will provide simple and robust assessment methods for radiological assessment related to planning and design, applying a graded approach. Tabulated screening coefficients and environmental dilution factors will be included for 825 radionuclides. The screening coefficients are developed assuming equilibrium conditions; they can be used to assess radiological impacts arising from routine discharges of radionuclides to terrestrial and aquatic receptors for planned exposure situations. Volumes 1 and 2 of the revised SRS 19 are at an advanced stage of completion and are focused on 'Screening Assessment of Public

  13. Assessment of effectiveness of geologic isolation systems. Perspectives on the geological and hydrological aspects of long-term release scenario analyses

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stottlemyre, J.A.; Wallace, R.W.; Benson, G.L.; Zellmer, J.T.

    1980-06-01

    Information that may be relevant to individuals involved with analyzing long-term release scenarios of specific repositories for nuclear waste is presented. The bulk of the information is derived from recent studies in West Germany and the United States. Emphasis is on the specific geological and hydrological phenomena that, alone or in concert, could potentially perturb the area around specific repository sites. Research is continuing on most of the topics discussed within this report. Because research is ongoing, statements and conclusions described in this document are subject to change. The main topics of this report are: (1) fracturing, (2) geohydrology, (3) magmatic activity, and (4) geomorphology. Therefore, the site-specific nature of the problem cannot be overemphasized. As an example of how one might combine the many synergistic and time-dependent parameters into a concise format the reader is referred to A Conceputal Simulation Model for Release Scenario Analysis of a Hypothetical Site in Columbia Plateau Basalts, PNL-2892. For additional details on the topics in this report, the reader is referred to the Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) consultant report listed in the bibliography.

  14. Projecting Images of the "Good" and the "Bad School": Top Scorers in Educational Large-Scale Assessments as Reference Societies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waldow, Florian

    2017-01-01

    Researchers interested in the global flow of educational ideas and programmes have long been interested in the role of so-called "reference societies." The article investigates how top scorers in large-scale assessments are framed as positive or negative reference societies in the education policy-making debate in German mass media and…

  15. Learning a No-Reference Quality Assessment Model of Enhanced Images With Big Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gu, Ke; Tao, Dacheng; Qiao, Jun-Fei; Lin, Weisi

    2017-03-06

    In this paper, we investigate into the problem of image quality assessment (IQA) and enhancement via machine learning. This issue has long attracted a wide range of attention in computational intelligence and image processing communities, since, for many practical applications, e.g., object detection and recognition, raw images are usually needed to be appropriately enhanced to raise the visual quality (e.g., visibility and contrast). In fact, proper enhancement can noticeably improve the quality of input images, even better than originally captured images, which are generally thought to be of the best quality. In this paper, we present two most important contributions. The first contribution is to develop a new no-reference (NR) IQA model. Given an image, our quality measure first extracts 17 features through analysis of contrast, sharpness, brightness and more, and then yields a measure of visual quality using a regression module, which is learned with big-data training samples that are much bigger than the size of relevant image data sets. The results of experiments on nine data sets validate the superiority and efficiency of our blind metric compared with typical state-of-the-art full-reference, reduced-reference and NA IQA methods. The second contribution is that a robust image enhancement framework is established based on quality optimization. For an input image, by the guidance of the proposed NR-IQA measure, we conduct histogram modification to successively rectify image brightness and contrast to a proper level. Thorough tests demonstrate that our framework can well enhance natural images, low-contrast images, low-light images, and dehazed images. The source code will be released at https://sites.google.com/site/guke198701/publications.

  16. Assessing Hydrologic Impacts of Future Land Cover Change Scenarios in the South Platte River Basin (CO, WY, & NE) and the San Pedro River Basin (U.S./Mexico).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barlow, J. E.; Burns, I. S.; Guertin, D. P.; Kepner, W. G.; Goodrich, D. C.

    2016-12-01

    Long-term land-use and land cover change and their associated impacts pose critical challenges to sustaining vital hydrological ecosystem services for future generations. In this study, a methodology to characterize hydrologic impacts from future urban growth through time that was developed and applied on the San Pedro River Basin was expanded and utilized on the South Platte River Basin as well. Future urban growth is represented by housing density maps generated in decadal intervals from 2010 to 2100, produced by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Integrated Climate and Land-Use Scenarios (ICLUS) project. ICLUS developed future housing density maps by adapting the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) social, economic, and demographic storylines to the conterminous United States. To characterize hydrologic impacts from future growth, the housing density maps were reclassified to National Land Cover Database (NLCD) 2006 land cover classes and used to parameterize the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) using the Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment (AGWA) tool. The objectives of this project were to 1) develop and implement a methodology for adapting the ICLUS data for use in AGWA as an approach to evaluate impacts of development on water-quantity and -quality, 2) present, evaluate, and compare results from scenarios for watersheds in two different geographic and climatic regions, 3) determine watershed specific implications of this type of future land cover change analysis.

  17. Dental age assessment of Maltese children and adolescents. Development of a reference dataset and comparison with a United Kingdom Caucasian reference dataset.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elshehawi, Waleed; Alsaffar, Hani; Roberts, Graham; Lucas, Victoria; McDonald, Fraser; Camilleri, Simon

    2016-04-01

    The purpose of this study was to develop and validate a Reference Data Set for Dental Age Assessment of the Maltese population and compare the mean Age of Attainment to a UK Caucasian Reference Data Set. The Maltese Reference Data Set was developed from 1593 Dental Panoramic Tomograms of patients aged between 4 and 26 years, taken from the radiographic archives of the Dental Department, Mater Dei Hospital, Malta. Tooth Development Stages were recorded for all 16 maxillary and mandibular permanent teeth on the left side and both permanent third molars on the right, according to Demirjian's staging method. Summary and percentile data were calculated for each Tooth Development Stage, including the mean Age of Attainment. These means were used to estimate the Dental Age of each subject in the study sample using the simple unweighted average method. The estimated Dental Age was compared to the gold standard of the Chronological Age. Comparison of the Maltese and UK Caucasian Reference Data Set was by a series of t-tests, carried out for each paired Tooth Development Stage by gender. The mean Age of Attainment was slightly higher for the Maltese than the UK Caucasians in both males and females. However there was no statistically significant difference between the Chronological Age and Dental Age for either sex. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd and Faculty of Forensic and Legal Medicine. All rights reserved.

  18. Improved reclassification of mortality risk by assessment of physical activity in patients referred for exercise testing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Myers, Jonathan; Nead, Kevin T; Chang, Peter; Abella, Joshua; Kokkinos, Peter; Leeper, Nicholas J

    2015-04-01

    Inability to meet minimal guidelines on physical activity is associated with poor health outcomes, but quantifying activity can be complex. We studied whether a simple question regarding participation in regular activity improves risk classification for all-cause mortality. Maximal exercise testing was performed in 6962 patients (mean age, 58.9 ± 11 years) for clinical reasons. Subjects also were assessed for participation in regular activity using a simple yes/no response to meeting minimal recommendations on activity. The incremental value of adding a simple physical activity assessment to clinical, demographic, and exercise test information to predict mortality was determined using Cox proportional hazards models, net reclassification improvement, and integrated discrimination index during a mean follow-up of 9.7 ± 4 years. Subjects who did not meet the minimal guidelines on activity had a lower exercise capacity (7.4 ± 4.3 vs 9.1 ± 3.6 metabolic equivalents, P mortality rate (2.42% vs 1.71%, P mortality (hazard ratio, 1.36; 95% confidence interval, 1.22-1.51, P test variables, fitness had the highest C-index for predicting mortality (0.72, P mortality among patients who are referred for exercise testing. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  19. A Framework for Rapid Impact Assessment with special reference to wildfires

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isak D. Jansen Van Vuuren

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Geographical Information Systems (GIS technology is a powerful tool that can support decision-making in all the facets of disaster risk management. Being at the centre of all disaster risk management functions, GIS activities such as data acquisition, processing, analysis and visualisation should be seamless from planning to prediction, preparation, response and recovery. A case study of devastating wildfires that destroyed thousands of hectares of agricultural land during August 2011 in the North-West province, South Africa, identifies the lack of a comprehensive framework within which information-based disaster impact assessments are undertaken and which is integrated with the larger context of disaster risk management. Problems relating to the availability, quality and integration of data are typical of the ad hoc approach to the implementation of information technologies, indicating the need for an integrated and coordinated approach. The aim of this paper is to establish a framework for rapid impact assessment, with specific reference to geospatial data management. The framework is put into the theoretical context of disaster risk management and information management, with data acquisition and processing functions being anchored in the principles of information systems theory.

  20. A multiple-scenario assessment of the effect of a continuous-care, guideline-based decision support system on clinicians' compliance to clinical guidelines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shalom, Erez; Shahar, Yuval; Parmet, Yisrael; Lunenfeld, Eitan

    2015-04-01

    To quantify the effect of a new continuous-care guideline (GL)-application engine, the Picard decision support system (DSS) engine, on the correctness and completeness of clinicians' decisions relative to an established clinical GL, and to assess the clinicians' attitudes towards a specific DSS. Thirty-six clinicians, including residents at different training levels and board-certified specialists at an academic OB/GYN department that handles around 15,000 deliveries annually, agreed to evaluate our continuous-care guideline-based DSS and to perform a cross-over assessment of the effects of using our guideline-based DSS. We generated electronic patient records that realistically simulated the longitudinal course of six different clinical scenarios of the preeclampsia/eclampsia/toxemia (PET) GL, encompassing 60 different decision points in total. Each clinician managed three scenarios manually without the Picard DSS engine (Non-DSS mode) and three scenarios when assisted by the Picard DSS engine (DSS mode). The main measures in both modes were correctness and completeness of actions relative to the PET GL. Correctness was further decomposed into necessary and redundant actions, relative to the guideline and the actual patient data. At the end of the assessment, a questionnaire was administered to the clinicians to assess their perceptions regarding use of the DSS. With respect to completeness, the clinicians applied approximately 41% of the GL's recommended actions in the non-DSS mode. Completeness increased to the performance of approximately 93% of the guideline's recommended actions, when using the DSS mode. With respect to correctness, approximately 94.5% of the clinicians' decisions in the non-DSS mode were correct. However, these included 68% of the actions that were correct but redundant, given the patient's data (e.g., repeating tests that had been performed), and 27% of the actions, which were necessary in the context of the GL and of the given scenario

  1. Regional impact assessment of land use scenarios in developing countries using the FoPIA approach: findings from five case studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    König, Hannes Jochen; Uthes, Sandra; Schuler, Johannes; Zhen, Lin; Purushothaman, Seema; Suarma, Utia; Sghaier, Mongi; Makokha, Stella; Helming, Katharina; Sieber, Stefan; Chen, Le; Brouwer, Floor; Morris, Jake; Wiggering, Hubert

    2013-09-01

    The impact of land use changes on sustainable development is of increasing interest in many regions of the world. This study aimed to test the transferability of the Framework for Participatory Impact Assessment (FoPIA), which was originally developed in the European context, to developing countries, in which lack of data often prevents the use of data-driven impact assessment methods. The core aspect of FoPIA is the stakeholder-based assessment of alternative land use scenarios. Scenario impacts on regional sustainability are assessed by using a set of nine regional land use functions (LUFs), which equally cover the economic, social and environmental dimensions of sustainability. The cases analysed in this study include (1) the alternative spatial planning policies around the Merapi volcano and surrounding areas of Yogyakarta City, Indonesia; (2) the large-scale afforestation of agricultural areas to reduce soil erosion in Guyuan, China; (3) the expansion of soil and water conservation measures in the Oum Zessar watershed, Tunisia; (4) the agricultural intensification and the potential for organic agriculture in Bijapur, India; and (5) the land degradation and land conflicts resulting from land division and privatisation in Narok, Kenya. All five regions are characterised by population growth, partially combined with considerable economic development, environmental degradation problems and social conflicts. Implications of the regional scenario impacts as well as methodological aspects are discussed. Overall, FoPIA proved to be a useful tool for diagnosing regional human-environment interactions and for supporting the communication and social learning process among different stakeholder groups. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Comparing Forests across Climates and Biomes: Qualitative Assessments, Reference Forests and Regional Intercomparisons

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salk, Carl F.; Frey, Ulrich; Rusch, Hannes

    2014-01-01

    Communities, policy actors and conservationists benefit from understanding what institutions and land management regimes promote ecosystem services like carbon sequestration and biodiversity conservation. However, the definition of success depends on local conditions. Forests' potential carbon stock, biodiversity and rate of recovery following disturbance are known to vary with a broad suite of factors including temperature, precipitation, seasonality, species' traits and land use history. Methods like tracking over-time changes within forests, or comparison with “pristine” reference forests have been proposed as means to compare the structure and biodiversity of forests in the face of underlying differences. However, data from previous visits or reference forests may be unavailable or costly to obtain. Here, we introduce a new metric of locally weighted forest intercomparison to mitigate the above shortcomings. This method is applied to an international database of nearly 300 community forests and compared with previously published techniques. It is particularly suited to large databases where forests may be compared among one another. Further, it avoids problematic comparisons with old-growth forests which may not resemble the goal of forest management. In most cases, the different methods produce broadly congruent results, suggesting that researchers have the flexibility to compare forest conditions using whatever type of data is available. Forest structure and biodiversity are shown to be independently measurable axes of forest condition, although users' and foresters' estimations of seemingly unrelated attributes are highly correlated, perhaps reflecting an underlying sentiment about forest condition. These findings contribute new tools for large-scale analysis of ecosystem condition and natural resource policy assessment. Although applied here to forestry, these techniques have broader applications to classification and evaluation problems using

  3. Using the Conners' Teacher Rating Scale-Revised in school children referred for assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charach, Alice; Chen, Shirley; Hogg-Johnson, Sheilah; Schachar, Russell J

    2009-04-01

    Predictive validity of the Conners' Teacher Rating Scale-Revised (CTRS-R) was evaluated against a semi-structured clinical teacher interview in school children referred for diagnostic assessment of attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). We hypothesized that extreme scale values would increase diagnostic certainty and that classification errors would be associated with comorbid conditions. Children (n = 1038), aged 6 to 12 years, were screened using the CTRS-R and their teachers were interviewed. Three levels of T scores on the 3 Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition (DSM-IV) subscales of the CTRS-R were compared with DSM-IV symptom thresholds by interview. Where subscale scores and interviews showed highest agreement, presence of comorbid disruptive behavioural disorders, reading disability, language impairment, and low IQ were investigated for children classified correctly, compared with incorrectly. T scores of 60 and above on all CTRS-R DSM-IV subscales offered high sensitivity, from 91% to 94%. Only on subscales M (hyperactive-impulsive) and N (total) did T scores of less than 60 offer posttest probabilities of less than 10%, confirming that a child does not reach diagnostic threshold by interview. T scores of 80 and more offered high specificity, from 88% to 93%, but did not provide high posttest probabilities that children reach diagnostic criteria. Classification errors were associated with more language impairment among false positives than true positives on the M (18.9%, compared with 11.3%, P = 0.04) and N (19.0%, compared with 9.5%, P = 0.023) subscales, and more reading disabilities among false positives than among true positives on the N subscale (35.2%, compared with 21.6%, P = 0.009). The ability of the CTRS-R to predict whether clinically referred children reach DSM-IV criteria for ADHD at school is limited.

  4. Sport concussion assessment tool - 3rd edition - normative reference values for professional ice hockey players.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hänninen, Timo; Tuominen, Markku; Parkkari, Jari; Vartiainen, Matti; Öhman, Juha; Iverson, Grant L; Luoto, Teemu M

    2016-08-01

    To determine normative reference values for the Sport Concussion Assessment Tool-3rd Edition (SCAT3) using a large sample of professional male ice hockey players. A descriptive cross-sectional study. Preseason baseline testing was administered individually to 304 professional male ice hockey players. The participants were aged between 16 and 40 with a mean (M) age of 25.3 years. Over 60% of the athletes reported previous concussion, almost 20% had been hospitalized or medically imaged following a head trauma. Of the players, 48% reported no symptoms. The symptom score median (Md) was 1.0 (M=1.5) and severity median was 1.0 (M=2.3). The median of the SAC score was 27.0 (M=27.0). The median of the M-BESS was 1.0 (M=2.0). The Tandem gait median was 10.9s (M=10.8s). The most common baseline symptom was neck pain (24%). Delayed recall was the most difficult component of the SAC (Md=4); only 24% performed it flawlessly. All athletes completed the double-leg stance of the M-BESS without errors, but there was performance variability in the tandem stance (Md=0, M=0.6, range=0-10) and single-leg stance (Md=1.0, M=1.4, range=0-10). Representative normative reference values for the SCAT3 among professional male ice hockey players are provided. Copyright © 2015 Sports Medicine Australia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Assessing reference evapotranspiration at regional scale based on remote sensing, weather forecast and GIS tools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramírez-Cuesta, J. M.; Cruz-Blanco, M.; Santos, C.; Lorite, I. J.

    2017-03-01

    Reference evapotranspiration (ETo) is a key component in efficient water management, especially in arid and semi-arid environments. However, accurate ETo assessment at the regional scale is complicated by the limited number of weather stations and the strict requirements in terms of their location and surrounding physical conditions for the collection of valid weather data. In an attempt to overcome this limitation, new approaches based on the use of remote sensing techniques and weather forecast tools have been proposed. Use of the Land Surface Analysis Satellite Application Facility (LSA SAF) tool and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) have allowed the design and development of innovative approaches for ETo assessment, which are especially useful for areas lacking available weather data from weather stations. Thus, by identifying the best-performing interpolation approaches (such as the Thin Plate Splines, TPS) and by developing new approaches (such as the use of data from the most similar weather station, TS, or spatially distributed correction factors, CITS), errors as low as 1.1% were achieved for ETo assessment. Spatial and temporal analyses reveal that the generated errors were smaller during spring and summer as well as in homogenous topographic areas. The proposed approaches not only enabled accurate calculations of seasonal and daily ETo values, but also contributed to the development of a useful methodology for evaluating the optimum number of weather stations to be integrated into a weather station network and the appropriateness of their locations. In addition to ETo, other variables included in weather forecast datasets (such as temperature or rainfall) could be evaluated using the same innovative methodology proposed in this study.

  6. A Scenario-Based Method for Assessing the Impact of Suggested Woodland Key Habitats on Forest Harvesting Costs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nils Egil Søvde

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Variable retention harvesting is acknowledged as a cost-effective conservation measure, but previous studies have focused on the environmental value and planning cost. In this study, a model is presented for optimizing harvesting cost using a high resolution map generated from airborne laser scanning data. The harvesting cost optimization model is used to calculate the objective value of different scenarios. By comparing the objective values, better estimates of the opportunity cost of woodland key habitats are found. The model can be used by a forest manager when evaluating what silvicultural treatments to implement or as an input for improving the nature reserve selection problem for woodland key habitats or retention patches. The model was tested on four real-world cases, and the results indicate that terrain transportation costs vary more than reported in the literature and that it may be worthwhile to divide the opportunity cost into its direct and indirect components.

  7. Putting flow-ecology relationships into practice: A decision-support system to assess fish community response to water-management scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cartwright, Jennifer M.; Caldwell, Casey; Nebiker, Steven; Knight, Rodney

    2017-01-01

    This paper presents a conceptual framework to operationalize flow–ecology relationships into decision-support systems of practical use to water-resource managers, who are commonly tasked with balancing multiple competing socioeconomic and environmental priorities. We illustrate this framework with a case study, whereby fish community responses to various water-management scenarios were predicted in a partially regulated river system at a local watershed scale. This case study simulates management scenarios based on interactive effects of dam operation protocols, withdrawals for municipal water supply, effluent discharges from wastewater treatment, and inter-basin water transfers. Modeled streamflow was integrated with flow–ecology relationships relating hydrologic departure from reference conditions to fish species richness, stratified by trophic, reproductive, and habitat characteristics. Adding a hypothetical new water-withdrawal site was predicted to increase the frequency of low-flow conditions with adverse effects for several fish groups. Imposition of new reservoir release requirements was predicted to enhance flow and fish species richness immediately downstream of the reservoir, but these effects were dissipated further downstream. The framework presented here can be used to translate flow–ecology relationships into evidence-based management by developing decision-support systems for conservation of riverine biodiversity while optimizing water availability for human use.

  8. Basis for the development of a scenario for ground water risk assessment of plant protection products to banana crop in the frame work of regulation 1107/2009

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alonso-Prados, Elena; Fernández-Getino, Ana Patricia; Alonso-Prados, Jose Luis

    2014-05-01

    The risk assessment to ground water of pesticides and their main metabolites is a data requirement under regulation 1107/2009, concerning the placing of plant protection products on the market. Predicted environmental concentrations (PEC) are calculated according to the recommendations of Forum for the Co-ordination of pesticide fate models and Their Use (FOCUS). The FOCUS groundwater working group developed scenarios for the main crops in European Union. However there are several crops which grow under specific agro-environmental conditions not covered by these scenarios and it is frequent to use the defined scenarios as surrogates. This practice adds an uncertainty factor in the risk assessment. One example is represented by banana crop which in Europe is limited to sub-tropical environmental conditions and with specific agronomic practices. The Canary Islands concentrates the higher production of banana in the European Union characterized by volcanic soils. Banana is located at low altitudes where soils have been eroded or degraded, and it is a common practice to transport soil materials from the high-mid altitudes to the low lands for cultivation. These cultivation plots are locally named "sorribas". These volcanic soils, classified as Andosols according to the FAO classification, have special physico-chemical properties due to noncrystalline materials and layer silicates. The good stability of these soils and their high permeability to water make them relatively resistant to water erosion. Physical properties of volcanic clayey soils are strongly affected by allophone and Fe and Al oxyhidroxides. The rapid weathering of porous volcanic material results in accumulation of stable organo-mineral complexes and short-range-order mineral such as allophane, imogolite and ferrihydrite. These components induce strong aggregation that partly favors properties such as: reduced swelling, increased aggregate stability of clay minerals, high soil water retention capacity

  9. Role Assessment of GIS Analysis and its Reliability while Ranking Urban Sustainability Using Scenarios Specific to Regional Climate, Community and Culture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salmi, H. Al; Abdulmuttalib, H. M.

    2012-07-01

    Urban Sustainability expresses the level of conservation of a city while living a town or consuming its urban resources, but the measurement of urban sustainability depends on what are considered important indicators of conservation besides the permitted levels of consumption in accordance with adopted criteria. This criterion should have common factors that are shared for all the members tested or cities to be evaluated as in this particular case for Abu Dhabi, but also have specific factors that are related to the geographic place, community and culture, that is the measures of urban sustainability specific to a middle east climate, community and culture where GIS Vector and Raster analysis have a role or add a value in urban sustainability measurements or grading are considered herein. Scenarios were tested using various GIS data types to replicate urban history (ten years period), current status and expected future of Abu Dhabi City setting factors to climate, community needs and culture. The useful Vector or Raster GIS data sets that are related to every scenario where selected and analysed in the sense of how and how much it can benefit the urban sustainability ranking in quantity and quality tests, this besides assessing the suitable data nature, type and format, the important topology rules to be considered, the useful attributes to be added, the relationships which should be maintained between data types of a geo- database, and specify its usage in a specific scenario test, then setting weights to each and every data type representing some elements of a phenomenon related to urban suitability factor. The results of assessing the role of GIS analysis provided data collection specifications such as the measures of accuracy reliable to a certain type of GIS functional analysis used in an urban sustainability ranking scenario tests. This paper reflects the prior results of the research that is conducted to test the multidiscipline evaluation of urban

  10. ROLE ASSESSMENT OF GIS ANALYSIS AND ITS RELIABILITY WHILE RANKING URBAN SUSTAINABILITY USING SCENARIOS SPECIFIC TO REGIONAL CLIMATE, COMMUNITY AND CULTURE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Al Salmi

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Urban Sustainability expresses the level of conservation of a city while living a town or consuming its urban resources, but the measurement of urban sustainability depends on what are considered important indicators of conservation besides the permitted levels of consumption in accordance with adopted criteria. This criterion should have common factors that are shared for all the members tested or cities to be evaluated as in this particular case for Abu Dhabi, but also have specific factors that are related to the geographic place, community and culture, that is the measures of urban sustainability specific to a middle east climate, community and culture where GIS Vector and Raster analysis have a role or add a value in urban sustainability measurements or grading are considered herein. Scenarios were tested using various GIS data types to replicate urban history (ten years period, current status and expected future of Abu Dhabi City setting factors to climate, community needs and culture. The useful Vector or Raster GIS data sets that are related to every scenario where selected and analysed in the sense of how and how much it can benefit the urban sustainability ranking in quantity and quality tests, this besides assessing the suitable data nature, type and format, the important topology rules to be considered, the useful attributes to be added, the relationships which should be maintained between data types of a geo- database, and specify its usage in a specific scenario test, then setting weights to each and every data type representing some elements of a phenomenon related to urban suitability factor. The results of assessing the role of GIS analysis provided data collection specifications such as the measures of accuracy reliable to a certain type of GIS functional analysis used in an urban sustainability ranking scenario tests. This paper reflects the prior results of the research that is conducted to test the multidiscipline evaluation

  11. Use of internal references for assessing CT density measurements of the pelvis as replacement for use of an external phantom

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boomsma, Martijn F.; Slouwerhof, Inge; Dalen, Jorn A. van [Isala Hospital, Department of Radiology, Zwolle (Netherlands); Edens, Mireille A. [Isala Hospital, Department of Innovation and Science, Zwolle (Netherlands); Mueller, Dirk [Philips Healthcare systems, Hamburg (Germany); Milles, Julien [Philips Healthcare Benelux, Eindhoven (Netherlands); Maas, Mario [AMC, Department of Radiology, Amsterdam (Netherlands)

    2015-11-15

    The purpose of this research is to study the use of an internal reference standard for fat- and muscle as a replacement for an external reference standard with a phantom. By using a phantomless internal reference standard, Hounsfield unit (HU) measurements of various tissues can potentially be assessed in patients with a CT scan of the pelvis without an added phantom at time of CT acquisition. This paves the way for development of a tool for quantification of the change in tissue density in one patient over time and between patients. This could make every CT scan made without contrast available for research purposes. Fifty patients with unilateral metal-on-metal total hip replacements, scanned together with a calibration reference phantom used in bone mineral density measurements, were included in this study. On computed tomography scans of the pelvis without the use of intravenous iodine contrast, reference values for fat and muscle were measured in the phantom as well as within the patient's body. The conformity between the references was examined with the intra-class correlation coefficient. The mean HU (± SD) of reference values for fat for the internal- and phantom references were -91.5 (±7.0) and -90.9 (±7.8), respectively. For muscle, the mean HU (± SD) for the internal- and phantom references were 59.2 (±6.2) and 60.0 (±7.2), respectively. The intra-class correlation coefficients for fat and muscle were 0.90 and 0.84 respectively and show excellent agreement between the phantom and internal references. Internal references can be used with similar accuracy as references from an external phantom. There is no need to use an external phantom to asses CT density measurements of body tissue. (orig.)

  12. Integrated hydrological model-based assessment of stormwater management scenarios in Copenhagen's first climate resilient neighbourhood using the three point approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lerer, Sara Maria; Righetti, Francesco; Rozario, Thomas

    2017-01-01

    The city of Copenhagen currently pursues a very ambitious plan to make the city 'cloudburst proof' within the next 30 years. The cloudburst management plan has the potential to support the city's aim to become more green, liveable, and sustainable. In this study, we assessed stormwater system...... designs using the Three Point Approach (3PA) as a framework, where an indicator value for each domain was calculated using state-of-the-art modelling techniques. We demonstrated the methodology on scenarios representing sequential enhancements of the cloudburst management plan for a district that has been...

  13. Skeletal and total body volumes of human fetuses: assessment of reference data by spiral CT

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Braillon, Pierre M. [Department of Radiology (Pavilion B), Hospital E. Herriot and University Claude Bernard, Lyon (France); Buenerd, Annie; Bouvier, Raymonde [Department of Pathology, Hospital E. Herriot and University Claude Bernard, Lyon (France); Lapillonne, Alexandre [USDA/ARS Children' s Nutrition Research Center, Department of Pediatrics, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX (United States)

    2002-05-01

    Objective: To define reference data for skeletal and total body volumes of normal human fetuses. Materials and methods: Spiral CT was used to assess the skeletal and total body volumes of 31 normal human stillborn infants with gestational age (GA) and body weight (BW) ranging from 14 to 41.5 weeks and 22 to 3,760 g, respectively. CT scans (slice thickness 2.7 mm, pitch 0.7) were performed within the first 24 h after delivery. Precise bone and soft-tissue windows were defined from analysis of the density along the diaphysis of the fetal long bones and from the measurement of a phantom that mimics soft tissues. Lengths and volumes were obtained from 3D reconstructions. The femur lengths measured from CT images (FLct) were compared with those provided by US studies (FLus). Results: Significant correlations (r>0.9) were found between BW, measured volumes of the entire skeleton or head, long-bone lengths, biparietal diameter and GA. Strong linear correlations (r>0.98) were observed between FLct and FLus. Conclusions: Skeletal and total body volume values obtained using spiral CT were significantly correlated with fetal biometric measurements. These data could complement those obtained in obstetric investigations with US. (orig.)

  14. Probabilistic-numerical assessment of pyroclastic current hazard at Campi Flegrei and Naples city: Multi-VEI scenarios as a tool for "full-scale" risk management.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giuseppe Mastrolorenzo

    face at least the VEI 5 reference scenario (at least 2 occurrences documented in the last 10 ka.

  15. Probabilistic-numerical assessment of pyroclastic current hazard at Campi Flegrei and Naples city: Multi-VEI scenarios as a tool for “full-scale” risk management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mastrolorenzo, Giuseppe; Palladino, Danilo M.; Pappalardo, Lucia; Rossano, Sergio

    2017-01-01

    least the VEI 5 reference scenario (at least 2 occurrences documented in the last 10 ka). PMID:29020018

  16. Probabilistic-numerical assessment of pyroclastic current hazard at Campi Flegrei and Naples city: Multi-VEI scenarios as a tool for "full-scale" risk management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mastrolorenzo, Giuseppe; Palladino, Danilo M; Pappalardo, Lucia; Rossano, Sergio

    2017-01-01

    least the VEI 5 reference scenario (at least 2 occurrences documented in the last 10 ka).

  17. Assessing factors that influence deviations between measured and calculated reference evapotranspiration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodny, Marek; Nolz, Reinhard

    2017-04-01

    Evapotranspiration (ET) is a fundamental component of the hydrological cycle, but challenging to be quantified. Lysimeter facilities, for example, can be installed and operated to determine ET, but they are costly and represent only point measurements. Therefore, lysimeter data are traditionally used to develop, calibrate, and validate models that allow calculating reference evapotranspiration (ET0) based on meteorological data, which can be measured more easily. The standardized form of the well-known FAO Penman-Monteith equation (ASCE-EWRI) is recommended as a standard procedure for estimating ET0 and subsequently plant water requirements. Applied and validated under different climatic conditions, the Penman-Monteith equation is generally known to deliver proper results. On the other hand, several studies documented deviations between measured and calculated ET0 depending on environmental conditions. Potential reasons are, for example, differing or varying surface characteristics of the lysimeter and the location where the weather instruments are placed. Advection of sensible heat (transport of dry and hot air from surrounding areas) might be another reason for deviating ET-values. However, elaborating causal processes is complex and requires comprehensive data of high quality and specific analysis techniques. In order to assess influencing factors, we correlated differences between measured and calculated ET0 with pre-selected meteorological parameters and related system parameters. Basic data were hourly ET0-values from a weighing lysimeter (ET0_lys) with a surface area of 2.85 m2 (reference crop: frequently irrigated grass), weather data (air and soil temperature, relative humidity, air pressure, wind velocity, and solar radiation), and soil water content in different depths. ET0_ref was calculated in hourly time steps according to the standardized procedure after ASCE-EWRI (2005). Deviations between both datasets were calculated as ET0_lys-ET0_ref and

  18. Scenarios and activities (Chapter 1)

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Burns, Mike

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The description and quantification of the shale gas-related activities presented in this Chapter informs the assessment of ecological and social risk addressed in other Chapters. For the Exploration Only scenario, activities that will manifest...

  19. Executive function impairment and recidivism in adult protective services clients referred for a decision making capacity assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terracina, Katherine A; Aamodt, Whitley W; Schillerstrom, Jason E

    2015-01-01

    The objective of this study was to determine if recidivistic Adult Protective Services (APS) cases referred for a decision-making capacity assessment were more cognitively impaired than nonrecidivistic cases. A retrospective medical record review of neuropsychological and demographic data was gathered during decisional capacity assessments. Recidivistic clients were those referred to APS more than once; those with a single open case were nonrecidivistic. Mean neuropsychological test scores were compared between recidivistic (n = 138) and nonrecidivistic (n = 95) subjects. No significant differences were found for age, gender, ethnicity, education, or dwelling status. Both recidivistic and nonrecidivistic cases performed poorly in all cognitive domains. Recidivistic clients performed significantly worse on measures of executive function (CLOX1, EXIT25). Executive function impairments seem to be one risk factor for recidivism in APS referrals. With 60% of cases referred for decision capacity assessments being recidivistic, identifying risk factors may help identify when targeted interventions are indicated to preclude recurrence of abuse.

  20. A stochastic dynamic model to assess land use change scenarios on the ecological status of fluvial water bodies under the Water Framework Directive

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hughes, Samantha Jane, E-mail: shughes@utad.pt [Fluvial Ecology Laboratory, CITAB – Centre for the Research and Technology of Agro-Environment and Biological Sciences, University of Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro, Vila Real (Portugal); Cabral, João Alexandre, E-mail: jcabral@utad.pt [Laboratory of Applied Ecology, CITAB – Centre for the Research and Technology of Agro-Environment and Biological Sciences, University of Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro, Vila Real (Portugal); Bastos, Rita, E-mail: ritabastos@utad.pt [Laboratory of Applied Ecology, CITAB – Centre for the Research and Technology of Agro-Environment and Biological Sciences, University of Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro, Vila Real (Portugal); Cortes, Rui, E-mail: rcortes@utad.pt [Fluvial Ecology Laboratory, CITAB – Centre for the Research and Technology of Agro-Environment and Biological Sciences, University of Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro, Vila Real (Portugal); Vicente, Joana, E-mail: jsvicente@fc.up.pt [Centro de Investigacão em Biodiversidade e Recursos Genéticos (CIBIO), Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade do Porto, Porto (Portugal); Eitelberg, David, E-mail: d.a.eitelberg@vu.nl [Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences, VU University Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1087, 1081 HV Amsterdam (Netherlands); Yu, Huirong, E-mail: h.yu@vu.nl [Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences, VU University Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1087, 1081 HV Amsterdam (Netherlands); College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University, 2 Yuanmingyuan W. Road, Haidian District, Beijing 100193 (China); and others

    2016-09-15

    This method development paper outlines an integrative stochastic dynamic methodology (StDM) framework to anticipate land use (LU) change effects on the ecological status of monitored and non-monitored lotic surface waters under the Water Framework Directive (WFD). Tested in the Alto Minho River Basin District in North West Portugal, the model is an innovative step towards developing a decision-making and planning tool to assess the influence impacts such as LU change and climate change on these complex systems. Comprising a series of sequential steps, a Generalized Linear Model based, competing model Multi Model Inference (MMI) approach was used for parameter estimation to identify principal land use types (distal factors) driving change in biological and physicochemical support elements (proximal factors) in monitored water bodies. The framework integrated MMI constants and coefficients of selected LU categories in the StDM simulations and spatial projections to simulate the ecological status of monitored and non-monitored lotic waterbodies in the test area under 2 scenarios of (1) LU intensification and (2) LU extensification. A total of 100 simulations were run for a 50 year period for each scenario. Spatially dynamic projections of WFD metrics were obtained, taking into account the occurrence of stochastic wildfire events which typically occur in the study region and are exacerbated by LU change. A marked projected decline to “Moderate” ecological status for most waterbodies was detected under intensification but little change under extensification; only a few waterbodies fell to “moderate” status. The latter scenario describes the actual regional socio-economic situation of agricultural abandonment due to rural poverty, partly explaining the projected lack of change in ecological status. Based on the WFD “one out all out” criterion, projected downward shifts in ecological status were due to physicochemical support elements, namely increased

  1. Assessment and comparison of three high-aluminum fly ash utilization scenarios in Inner Mongolia, China using an eco-efficiency indicator.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Shuo; Lin, Ling; Li, Shao Peng; Li, Qiang; Wang, Xiu Teng; Sun, Liang

    2017-05-01

    Utilization of fly ash is of great importance in China in the context of resource and environmental crises. Different fly ash utilization processes are proposed, and some have been practically applied. However, none of these fly ash utilization pathways has been evaluated comprehensively by integrating both environmental and economic perspectives. In this study, three high-aluminum fly ash utilization methods in Mongolia were assessed and compared based on the concept of eco-efficiency. The environmental assessment was conducted in accordance with life-cycle assessment principles, and a monetization-weighting approach was applied to obtain social willingness-to-pay as a reflection of environmental impact. The environmental assessment results revealed that the reuse of fly ash had significant advantage for saving primary resource, while solid waste, depletion of water, and global warming were the three highest environmental impacts from the life cycle perspective. The economic performance assessment showed positive net profits for fly ash utilization, but high value-added products were not necessarily indicative of better economic performance due to the relatively high operation cost. Comparison of the eco-efficiency indicators (EEIs) implied that the process of scenario 1#, which produced mullite ceramic and active calcium silicate, was the most recommended out of the three scenarios on the present scale. This judgment was consistent with the evaluation of the resource utilization rate. The present study showed that the EEI could be used to compare different fly ash utilization processes in a comprehensive and objective manner, thus providing definitive and insightful suggestions for decision-making and technical improvement.

  2. Reliable assessment of general surgeons' non-technical skills based on video-recordings of patient simulated scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Spanager, Lene; Beier-Holgersen, Randi; Dieckmann, Peter

    2013-01-01

    Nontechnical skills are essential for safe and efficient surgery. The aim of this study was to evaluate the reliability of an assessment tool for surgeons' nontechnical skills, Non-Technical Skills for Surgeons dk (NOTSSdk), and the effect of rater training.......Nontechnical skills are essential for safe and efficient surgery. The aim of this study was to evaluate the reliability of an assessment tool for surgeons' nontechnical skills, Non-Technical Skills for Surgeons dk (NOTSSdk), and the effect of rater training....

  3. An in-house usage assessment of print reference materials in a ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The study investigated the utilization of print reference materials in a Nigerian hybrid medical school library, factors influencing utilization or under utilization, and if utilization commensurate with the library's prospect on the use of these materials. During the period of study, it was assumed that all reference materials pulled ...

  4. Accuracy assessment of NOAA's daily reference evapotranspiration maps for the Texas High Plains

    Science.gov (United States)

    The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) provides daily reference ET for the continental U.S. using climatic data from North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS). This data provides large scale spatial representation for reference ET, which is essential for regional scal...

  5. Assessment of the impact of the greenhouse gas emission and sink scenarios in Finland on radiative forcing and greenhouse effect

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Savolainen, I.; Sinisalo, J.; Pipatti, R. [Technical Research Centre of Finland, Espoo (Finland)

    1996-12-31

    The objective of this work is to study greenhouse gas emissions and sinks and their greenhouse impact as a function of time. The greenhouse impact is expressed in terms of global average radiative forcing, which measures the perturbation in the Earth`s radiation budget. Radiative forcing is calculated on the basis of the concentration changes of the greenhouse gases and the radiation absorption properties of the gases. It takes into account the relatively slow changes in the concentrations due to natural removal and transformation processes and also allows a comparison of the impact of various greenhouse gases and their possible control options as a function of time. In addition to the applications mentioned above, the anthropogenic greenhouse gas emission histories of Nordic countries have been estimated, and the radiative forcing caused by them has been calculated with REFUGE. The dynamic impact of aerosol emissions both from the global point of view and in the context of different energy sources (coal, oil and natural gas) have also been studied. In some instances the caused radiative forcing has been examined on a per capita basis. The radiative forcing calculations contain considerable uncertainty due to inaccurately known factors at several stages of the calculation (emission estimation, concentration calculation and radiative forcing calculation). The total uncertainty of the results is typically on the order of +- 40 %, when absolute values are used. If the results are used in a relative way, e.g. to compare the impacts of different scenarios, the final uncertainty is considerably less (typically + 10 %), due to correlations in almost all stages of the calculation process

  6. Environmental and economic risks assessment under climate changes for three land uses scenarios analysis across Teshio watershed, northernmost of Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Min; Shibata, Hideaki; Chen, Li

    2017-12-01

    Land use and climate changes affect on the economy and environment with different patterns and magnitudes in the watershed. This study used risk analysis model stochastic efficiency with respect to a function (SERF) to evaluate economic and environmental risks caused by four climate change scenarios (baseline, small-, mid- and large changes) and three land uses (paddy dominated, paddy-farmland mixture and farmland dominated for agriculture) in Teshio watershed in northern Hokkaido, Japan. Under the baseline climate conditions, the lower ranking of economic income of crop yield and higher ranking of pollutant load from agricultural land were both predicted in paddy dominated for agriculture, suggesting that the paddy dominated system caused higher risks of economic and environmental variables compared to other two land uses. Increase of temperature and precipitation increased crop yields under all three climate changes which resulted in increase of the ranking of economic income, indicating that those climate changes could reduce economic risk. The increased temperature and precipitation also accelerated mineralization of organic nutrient and nutrient leaching to river course of Teshio which resulted in increase of the ranking of pollutant load, suggesting that those climate changes could lead to more environmental risk. The rankings of economic income in mid- and large changes of climate were lower than that in small change of climate under paddy-farmland mixture and farmland dominated systems due to decrease of crop yield, suggesting that climate change led to more economic risk. In summary, the results suggested that increase in temperature and precipitation caused higher risks of both economic and environmental perspectives, and the impacts was higher than those of land use changes in the studied watershed. Those findings would help producers and watershed managers to measure the tradeoffs between environmental protection and agricultural economic development

  7. Comparison of scenarios for the integrated management of construction and demolition waste by life cycle assessment: A case study in Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Penteado, Carmenlucia Santos Giordano; Rosado, Laís Peixoto

    2016-10-01

    Brazil, as a result of economic development and strengthening of the construction industry in recent years, is generating an increasing amount of construction and demolition waste (CDW). Hence, environmental assessment of the management systems is vital. A life cycle assessment (LCA) is presented of CDW management in a medium-sized municipality located in the southeast region of Brazil, where the impacts of leaching were not considered due to absence of consistent data. Six different proposed scenarios for the current CDW management situation have been considered. These scenarios comprised the combined use of landfilling, sorting, and recycling, and the use of CDW as paving material for landfill roads, in different percentages. Considering 0.8 ton of waste as the functional unit, the life cycle inventory was performed using primary data obtained from field survey and secondary data from the database Ecoinvent version 3.1, and from the literature. The method CML 2 baseline 2001 was used for environmental impacts evaluation. The results highlight that recycling is beneficial when efficient CDW sorting takes place at construction sites, avoiding the transport of refuse to sorting and recycling facilities, and the distance between the generation source and the recycling unit is within 30 km. Thus, our results are helpful to ensure that the decision-making processes are based on environmental and technical aspects, and not only on economic and political factors, and also provide data and support for other LCA studies on CDW. © The Author(s) 2016.

  8. Multi-model and multi-scenario assessments of Asian water futures: The Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) initiative

    Science.gov (United States)

    Satoh, Yusuke; Kahil, Taher; Byers, Edward; Burek, Peter; Fischer, Günther; Tramberend, Sylvia; Greve, Peter; Flörke, Martina; Eisner, Stephanie; Hanasaki, Naota; Magnuszewski, Piotr; Nava, Luzma Fabiola; Cosgrove, William; Langan, Simon; Wada, Yoshihide

    2017-07-01

    This paper presents one of the first quantitative scenario assessments for future water supply and demand in Asia to 2050. The assessment, developed by the Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) initiative, uses the latest set of global climate change and socioeconomic scenarios and state-of-the-art global hydrological models. In Asia, water demand for irrigation, industry, and households is projected to increase substantially in the coming decades (30-40% by 2050 compared to 2010). These changes are expected to exacerbate water stress, especially in the current hotspots such as north India and Pakistan, and north China. By 2050, 20% of the land area in the Asia-Pacific region, with a population of 1.6-2 billion, is projected to experience severe water stress. We find that socioeconomic changes are the main drivers of worsening water scarcity in Asia, with climate change impacts further increasing the challenge into the 21st century. Moreover, a detailed basin-level analysis of the hydro-economic conditions of 40 Asian basins shows that although the coping capacity of all basins is expected to improve due to gross domestic product (GDP) growth, some basins continuously face severe water challenges. These basins will potentially be home to up to 1.6 billion people by mid-21st century.

  9. Worst-case scenario approach to the tsunami hazard assessment for the coastal areas between Augusta and Siracusa, eastern Sicily, Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armigliato, Alberto; Pagnoni, Gianluca; Zaniboni, Filippo; Tinti, Stefano

    2015-04-01

    The province of Siracusa encompasses a very long portion of the eastern Sicily coastline, ranging from the southern part of the Catania Gulf to the north down to the southern-eastern end of the island, known as Capo Passero. Within this domain, the area comprised between the towns of Augusta and Siracusa has been selected as one of the sites for the testing of innovative methods for tsunami hazard, vulnerability and risk assessment and reduction developed in the frame of the EU Project called ASTARTE - Assessment, STrategy And Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe (Grant 603839, 7th FP, ENV.2013.6.4-3). The selection was driven by two main reasons. First, the area was hit by at least seven tsunamis in the approximate time interval from 1600 BC to present, as can be deduced from historical catalogues and paleo-tsunami deposits analysis: the most famous are probably the 21 July 365, 4 February 1169, 11 January 1693 and 28 December 1908 tsunamis. Secondly, as a whole, the test site has a strong relevance from the industrial, commercial, military, historical and cultural points of view: here it is sufficient to mention the huge petrochemical pole in the Augusta bay and the listing of Siracusa as UNESCO World Heritage Site since 2005. This contribution deals with the tsunami hazard assessment for the Augusta-Siracusa area, approached through the worst-case credible scenario technique. We selected five main source areas: the choice is driven mainly by the already mentioned fact that historical catalogues and paleo-tsunami studies tell us that the area under investigation can be impacted by tsunamis generated both in the near-field and in the far-field. The five areas include the Hyblaean-Malta escarpment and the Messina Straits in the near-field, the western and eastern lobes of the Ionian subduction zone in the intermediate field, and the western Hellenic Trench in the far-field. In each source area, a selection of possible faults was made, whose characteristics and

  10. Waste Isolation Safety Assessment Program scenario analysis methods for use in assessing the safety of the geologic isolation of nuclear waste.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Greenborg, J.; Winegardner, W.K.; Pelto, P.J.; Voss, J.W.; Stottlemyre, J.A.; Forbes, I.A.; Fussell, J.B.; Burkholder, H.C.

    1978-11-01

    The relative utility of the various safety analysis methods to scenario analysis for a repository system was evaluated by judging the degree to which certain criteria are satisfied by use of the method. Six safety analysis methods were reviewed in this report for possible use in scenario analysis of nuclear waste repositories: expert opinion, perspectives analysis, fault trees/event trees, Monte Carlo simulation, Markov chains, and classical systems analysis. Four criteria have been selected. The criteria suggest that the methods: (1) be quantitative and scientifically based; (2) model the potential disruptive events and processes, (3) model the system before and after failure (sufficiently detailed to provide for subsequent consequence analysis); and (4) be compatible with the level of available system knowledge and data. Expert opinion, fault trees/event trees, Monte Carlo simulation and classical systems analysis were judged to have the greatest potential appliation to the problem of scenario analysis. The methods were found to be constrained by limited data and by knowledge of the processes governing the system. It was determined that no single method is clearly superior to others when measured against all the criteria. Therefore, to get the best understanding of system behavior, a combination of the methods is recommended. Monte Carlo simulation was judged to be the most suitable matrix in which to incorporate a combination of methods.

  11. Multireader assessment as an alternative to reference assessment to improve the detection of radiographic progression in a large longitudinal cohort of rheumatoid arthritis (ESPOIR).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gandjbakhch, Frederique; Granger, Benjamin; Freund, Romain; Foltz, Violaine; Jousse-Joulin, Sandrine; Devauchelle, Valerie; Afshar, Mona; Albert, Jean David; Bailly, Florian; Constant, Elodie; Biale, Lisa; Milin, Morgane; Couderc, Marion; Denarie, Delphine; Fradin, Anne; Martaille, Virginie; Pierreisnard, Audrey; Poursac, Nicolas; Saraux, Alain; Fautrel, Bruno

    2017-01-01

    Structural damage progression is a major outcome in rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Its evaluation and follow-up in trials should involve radiographic scoring by 1 or 2 readers (reference assessment), which is challenging in large longitudinal cohorts with multiple assessments. To compare the reproducibility of multireader and reference assessment to improve the feasibility of detecting radiographic progression in a large cohort of patients with early arthritis (ESPOIR). We used 3 sessions to train 12 rheumatologists in radiographic scoring by the van der Heijde-modified Sharp score (SHS). Multireader scoring was based on 10 trained-reader assessments, each reader scoring a random sample of 1/5 of all available radiographs (for double scoring for each X-ray set) for patients included in the ESPOIR cohort with complete radiographic data at M0 and M60. Reference scoring was performed by 2 experienced readers. Scoring was performed blindly to clinical data, with radiographs in chronological order. We compared multireader and reference assessments by intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs) for SHS and significant radiographic progression (SRP). The intrareader and inter-reader reproducibility for trained assessors increased during the training sessions (ICC 0.79 to 0.94 and 0.76 to 0.92), respectively. For the 524 patients included, agreement between multireader and reference assessment of SHS progression between M0 and M60 and SRP assessment were almost perfect, ICC (0.88 (95% CI 0.82 to 0.93)) and (0.99 (95% CI 0.99 to 0.99)), respectively. Multireader assessment of radiographic structural damage progression is comparable to reference assessment and could be used to improve the feasibility of radiographic scoring in large longitudinal cohort with numerous X-ray evaluations.

  12. Hybrid integral-differential simulator of EM force interactions/scenario-assessment tool with pre-computed influence matrix in applications to ITER

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rozov, V.; Alekseev, A.

    2015-08-01

    A necessity to address a wide spectrum of engineering problems in ITER determined the need for efficient tools for modeling of the magnetic environment and force interactions between the main components of the magnet system. The assessment of the operating window for the machine, determined by the electro-magnetic (EM) forces, and the check of feasibility of particular scenarios play an important role for ensuring the safety of exploitation. Such analysis-powered prevention of damages forms an element of the Machine Operations and Investment Protection strategy. The corresponding analysis is a necessary step in preparation of the commissioning, which finalizes the construction phase. It shall be supported by the development of the efficient and robust simulators and multi-physics/multi-system integration of models. The developed numerical model of interactions in the ITER magnetic system, based on the use of pre-computed influence matrices, facilitated immediate and complete assessment and systematic specification of EM loads on magnets in all foreseen operating regimes, their maximum values, envelopes and the most critical scenarios. The common principles of interaction in typical bilateral configurations have been generalized for asymmetry conditions, inspired by the plasma and by the hardware, including asymmetric plasma event and magnetic system fault cases. The specification of loads is supported by the technology of functional approximation of nodal and distributed data by continuous patterns/analytical interpolants. The global model of interactions together with the mesh-independent analytical format of output provides the source of self-consistent and transferable data on the spatial distribution of the system of forces for assessments of structural performance of the components, assemblies and supporting structures. The numerical model used is fully parametrized, which makes it very suitable for multi-variant and sensitivity studies (positioning, off

  13. Analytical similarity assessment of rituximab biosimilar CT-P10 to reference medicinal product.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Kyoung Hoon; Lee, Jihun; Bae, Jin Soo; Kim, Yeon Jung; Kang, Hyun Ah; Kim, Sung Hwan; Lee, So Jung; Lim, Ki Jung; Lee, Jung Woo; Jung, Soon Kwan; Chang, Shin Jae

    2018-02-22

    CT-P10 (TruximaTM) was recently approved as the world's first rituximab biosimilar product in the European Union (EU) and South Korea. To demonstrate biosimilarity of CT-P10 with the reference medicinal product (RMP), extensive 3-way similarity assessment has been conducted between CT-P10, EU-Rituximab and US-Rituximab, focusing on the physicochemical and biological quality attributes. A multitude of state-of-the-art analyses revealed that CT-P10 has identical primary and higher order structures compared to the original product. Purity/impurity profiles of CT-P10 measured by the levels of aggregates, fragments, non-glycosylated form and process-related impurities were also found to be comparable with those of RMPs. In terms of the post-translational modification, CT-P10 contains slightly less N-terminal pyro-glutamate variant, which has been known not to affect product efficacy or safety. Oligosaccharide profiling has revealed that, although CT-P10 contains the same conserved glycan species and relative proportion with the RMPs, the content of total afucosylated glycan in CT-P10 was slightly higher than in EU- or US-Rituximab. Nevertheless, the effect of the observed level of afucosylation in CT-P10 drug product on Fc receptor binding affinity or antibody-dependent cell-mediated cytotoxicity was found to be negligible based on the spiking study with highly afucosylated sample. Arrays of biological assays representative of known and putative mechanisms of action for rituximab have shown that biological activities of CT-P10 are within the quality range of RMPs. Recent results of clinical studies have further confirmed that the CT-P10 exhibits equivalent clinical efficacy and safety profiles compared to EU- and US-Rituximab. The current 3-way similarity assessment together with clinical study results confidently demonstrate that CT-P10 is highly similar with EU- and US-Rituximab in terms of physicochemical properties, biological activities, efficacy, and safety for

  14. Expert judgment-based risk assessment using statistical scenario analysis: a case study-running the bulls in Pamplona (Spain).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mallor, Fermín; García-Olaverri, Carmen; Gómez-Elvira, Sagrario; Mateo-Collazas, Pedro

    2008-08-01

    In this article, we present a methodology to assess the risk incurred by a participant in an activity involving danger of injury. The lack of high-quality historical data for the case considered prevented us from constructing a sufficiently detailed statistical model. It was therefore decided to generate a risk assessment model based on expert judgment. The methodology is illustrated in a real case context: the assessment of risk to participants in a San Fermin bull-run in Pamplona (Spain). The members of the panel of "experts on the bull-run" represented very different perspectives on the phenomenon: runners, surgeons and other health care personnel, journalists, civil defense workers, security staff, organizers, herdsmen, authors of books on the bull-run, etc. We consulted 55 experts. Our methodology includes the design of a survey instrument to elicit the experts' views and the statistical and mathematical procedures used to aggregate their subjective opinions.

  15. Participatory Scenario Generation: Communicating Usability Issues in Product Design through User Involvement in Scenario Generation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Bijl-Brouwer, Mieke; van der Voort, Mascha C.

    2009-01-01

    Scenarios have proven to be a valuable tool in evaluating and communicating usability issues in consumer product design. Scenarios are explicit descriptions of hypothetical use situations. Realistic scenarios can serve as a valuable frame of reference to evaluate design solutions with regard to

  16. Measuring the sustainability of policy scenarios: Emergy-based strategic environmental assessment of the Chinese paper industry

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ren Jing-Ming,; Zhang, L.; Wang Ru-song,

    2010-01-01

    Recent years have seen increasing demand for wider application of strategic environmental assessment (SEA), especially SEA of major policies, as a powerful instrument to safeguard the environment during the rapid industrialization and urbanization in China. Debates on SEA are concentrated on its

  17. The Experimental Effects of the Strategic Adolescent Reading Intervention (STARI) on a Scenarios-Based Reading Comprehension Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, James; Hemphill, Lowry; Troyer, Margaret; Jones, Stephanie; LaRusso, Maria; Kim, Ha-Yeon; Donovan, Suzanne; Snow, Catherine

    2016-01-01

    Nearly one-quarter of U.S. eighth graders score below basic on national assessments of reading (NCES, 2013) and are poorly equipped for the reading demands of secondary school. Struggling adolescent readers cannot summarize a simple passage, use context to determine word meanings, and have difficulties making text-based inferences. In addition,…

  18. Student Performance along Axes of Scenario Novelty and Complexity in Introductory Biology: Lessons from a Unique Factorial Approach to Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deane-Coe, Kirsten K.; Sarvary, Mark A.; Owens, Thomas G.

    2017-01-01

    In an undergraduate introductory biology laboratory course, we used a summative assessment to directly test the learning objective that students will be able to apply course material to increasingly novel and complex situations. Using a factorial framework, we developed multiple true-false questions to fall along axes of novelty and complexity,…

  19. Development and application of benthic algal reference condition models to assess stream condition in the South Nahanni Watershed.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Kathryn E; Hall, Roland I; Scrimgeour, Garry J

    2017-07-01

    Monitoring biologists continually strive to improve the effectiveness of protocols to quantify environmental and ecological effects of anthropogenic activities. We developed and applied a reference condition approach (RCA) model to assess the ability of 3 descriptors of algal community structure (algal taxonomy, diatom taxonomy, and algal pigments) to identify impairment in 2 northern rivers in the South Nahanni River Watershed, Northwest Territories, Canada. We established reference conditions by sampling 62 regional reference (i.e., minimally disturbed) sites in 2008 (n = 44) and 2009 (n = 18) and assessed the condition of 38 test sites downstream of 2 mines in 2008 (N = 20 sites) and 2009 (N = 18 sites). Patterns of impairment downstream of the 2 mines were assessed and zones of influence were identified for each algal descriptor. Results showed that the 3 RCA models using the 3 descriptors of algal community structure identified reasonably consistent assessments downstream of Prairie Creek mine with changes in algal pigments being more sensitive than the other 2 descriptors. In Flat River, however, assessment of test sites varied considerably depending on the descriptor of algal community structure. Our results suggest that benthic algal RCA models show promise as biological monitoring tools, but additional investigations are required to better understand variance in site assessments among the 3 algal community descriptors. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2017;13:728-745. © 2016 SETAC. © 2016 SETAC.

  20. Use of an eight-arm radial water maze to assess working and reference memory following neonatal brain injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Penley, Stephanie C; Gaudet, Cynthia M; Threlkeld, Steven W

    2013-12-04

    Working and reference memory are commonly assessed using the land based radial arm maze. However, this paradigm requires pretraining, food deprivation, and may introduce scent cue confounds. The eight-arm radial water maze is designed to evaluate reference and working memory performance simultaneously by requiring subjects to use extra-maze cues to locate escape platforms and remedies the limitations observed in land based radial arm maze designs. Specifically, subjects are required to avoid the arms previously used for escape during each testing day (working memory) as well as avoid the fixed arms, which never contain escape platforms (reference memory). Re-entries into arms that have already been used for escape during a testing session (and thus the escape platform has been removed) and re-entries into reference memory arms are indicative of working memory deficits. Alternatively, first entries into reference memory arms are indicative of reference memory deficits. We used this maze to compare performance of rats with neonatal brain injury and sham controls following induction of hypoxia-ischemia and show significant deficits in both working and reference memory after eleven days of testing. This protocol could be easily modified to examine many other models of learning impairment.

  1. A Danish reference chart for assessment of psychomotor development based on the Ages & Stages Questionnaire

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Østergaard, Katrine Kure; Lando, Ane Vibeke; Hansen, Bo Mølholm

    2012-01-01

    The aim of this study was to obtain Ages and Stages Questionnaire (ASQ) scores from the background population so that these may be used as a reference group to extremely preterm children at nine and 18 months of corrected age....

  2. A Danish reference chart for assessment of psychomotor development based on the Ages & Stages Questionnaire

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Østergaard, Katrine Kure; Lando, Ane Vibeke; Hansen, Bo Mølholm

    2012-01-01

    The aim of this study was to obtain Ages and Stages Questionnaire (ASQ) scores from the background population so that these may be used as a reference group to extremely preterm children at nine and 18 months of corrected age.......The aim of this study was to obtain Ages and Stages Questionnaire (ASQ) scores from the background population so that these may be used as a reference group to extremely preterm children at nine and 18 months of corrected age....

  3. Development of National Future Extreme Heat Scenario to Enable the Assessment of Climate Impacts on Public Health

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quattrochi, Dale A.; Cresson, William L.; Al-Hamdan, Mohammad Z.; Estes, Maurice G.

    2013-01-01

    The project's emphasis is on providing assessments of the magnitude, frequency and geographic distribution of EHEs to facilitate public health studies. We focus on the daily to weekly time scales on which EHEs occur, not on decadal-scale climate changes. There is, however, a very strong connection between air temperature patterns at the two time scales and long-term climatic changes will certainly alter the frequency of EHEs.

  4. Reference values for mental health assessment instruments: objectives and methods of the Leiden Routine Outcome Monitoring Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schulte-van Maaren, Yvonne W M; Carlier, Ingrid V E; Giltay, Erik J; van Noorden, Martijn S; de Waal, Margot W M; van der Wee, Nic J A; Zitman, Frans G

    2013-04-01

    Routine outcome monitoring (ROM) was developed to establish the outcome of psychotherapeutic and pharmacological treatments through repeated assessments before, during and after treatment. Although standardization of psychiatric assessments and their reference values are essential for patient care, for various ROM instruments reference values are not available. The aim of the Leiden ROM Study is to generate reference values for 22 ROM instruments, covering generic and specific mood, anxiety and somatoform (MAS) disorders, for the general population. This article describes the extensive process of recruitment, as well as baseline characteristics of patient versus non-patient groups. Cross-sectional study in randomly selected participants aged 18-65 years from the Dutch population, included through general practitioners. Extensive demographic, psychosocial, mental health, and biological data from 1302 participants, recruited via general practitioners, were collected during a two-hour standardized assessment including observer-rated and self-report scales. These data will be compared with corresponding data from 7840 patients with psychopathology who were referred to secondary care. On-going quality control and calibration ensured maintenance of high quality during data collection. This reference group study for mental health assessments is the first study of this size carried out in the Netherlands. The results of this study are expected to be of value to secondary psychiatric care because they allow the indication of progress in health, treatment effect and possible termination of treatment. Additionally, the reference values can be used by primary care physicians as decision threshold for referral to specialized mental health care and vice versa. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  5. Proposed methodology for completion of scenario analysis for the Basalt Waste Isolation Project. [Assessment of post-closure performance for a proposed repository for high-level nuclear waste

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Roberds, W.J.; Plum, R.J.; Visca, P.J.

    1984-11-01

    This report presents the methodology to complete an assessment of postclosure performance, considering all credible scenarios, including the nominal case, for a proposed repository for high-level nuclear waste at the Hanford Site, Washington State. The methodology consists of defensible techniques for identifying and screening scenarios, and for then assessing the risks associated with each. The results of the scenario analysis are used to comprehensively determine system performance and/or risk for evaluation of compliance with postclosure performance criteria (10 CFR 60 and 40 CFR 191). In addition to describing the proposed methodology, this report reviews available methodologies for scenario analysis, discusses pertinent performance assessment and uncertainty concepts, advises how to implement the methodology (including the organizational requirements and a description of tasks) and recommends how to use the methodology in guiding future site characterization, analysis, and engineered subsystem design work. 36 refs., 24 figs., 1 tab.

  6. Needs assessment for next generation computer-aided mammography reference image databases and evaluation studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horsch, Alexander; Hapfelmeier, Alexander; Elter, Matthias

    2011-11-01

    Breast cancer is globally a major threat for women's health. Screening and adequate follow-up can significantly reduce the mortality from breast cancer. Human second reading of screening mammograms can increase breast cancer detection rates, whereas this has not been proven for current computer-aided detection systems as "second reader". Critical factors include the detection accuracy of the systems and the screening experience and training of the radiologist with the system. When assessing the performance of systems and system components, the choice of evaluation methods is particularly critical. Core assets herein are reference image databases and statistical methods. We have analyzed characteristics and usage of the currently largest publicly available mammography database, the Digital Database for Screening Mammography (DDSM) from the University of South Florida, in literature indexed in Medline, IEEE Xplore, SpringerLink, and SPIE, with respect to type of computer-aided diagnosis (CAD) (detection, CADe, or diagnostics, CADx), selection of database subsets, choice of evaluation method, and quality of descriptions. 59 publications presenting 106 evaluation studies met our selection criteria. In 54 studies (50.9%), the selection of test items (cases, images, regions of interest) extracted from the DDSM was not reproducible. Only 2 CADx studies, not any CADe studies, used the entire DDSM. The number of test items varies from 100 to 6000. Different statistical evaluation methods are chosen. Most common are train/test (34.9% of the studies), leave-one-out (23.6%), and N-fold cross-validation (18.9%). Database-related terminology tends to be imprecise or ambiguous, especially regarding the term "case". Overall, both the use of the DDSM as data source for evaluation of mammography CAD systems, and the application of statistical evaluation methods were found highly diverse. Results reported from different studies are therefore hardly comparable. Drawbacks of the DDSM

  7. Spatial assessment of the economic feasibility of short rotation coppice on radioactively contaminated land in Belarus, Ukraine, and Russia. I. Model description and scenario analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perk Mv, Marcel van der; Burema, Jiske; Vandenhove, Hildegarde; Goor, François; Timofeyev, Sergei

    2004-09-01

    The economic feasibility of short rotation coppice (SRC) production and energy conversion in areas contaminated by Chernobyl-derived (137)Cs was evaluated taking the spatial variability of environmental conditions into account. Two sequential GIS-embedded submodels were developed for a spatial assessment, which allow for spatial variation in soil contamination, soil type, and land use. These models were applied for four SRC production and four energy conversion scenarios for the entire contaminated area of Ukraine, Belarus, and Russia and for a part of the Bragin district, Belarus. It was concluded that in general medium-scale SRC production using local machines is most profitable. The areas near Chernobyl are not suitable for SRC production since the contamination levels in SRC wood exceed the intervention limit. Large scale SRC production is not profitable in areas where dry and sandy soils predominate. If the soil contamination does not exceed the intervention limit and sufficient SRC wood is available, all energy conversion scenarios are profitable.

  8. Synthetic Scenarios from CMIP5 Model Simulations for Climate Change Impact Assessments in Managed Ecosystems and Water Resources: Case Study in South Asian Countries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anandhi, A.; Omani, N.; Chaubey, I.; Horton, R.; Bader, D.; Nanjundiah, R. S.

    2017-01-01

    Increasing population, urbanization, and associated demand for food production compounded by climate change and variability have important implications for the managed ecosystems and water resources of a region. This is particularly true for south Asia, which supports one quarter of the global population, half of whom live below the poverty line. This region is largely dependent on monsoon precipitation for water. Given the limited resources of the developing countries in this region, the objective of our study was to empirically explore climate change in south Asia up to the year 2099 using monthly simulations from 35 global climate models (GCMs) participating in the fifth phase of the Climate Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) for two future emission scenarios (representative concentration pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and provide a wide range of potential climate change outcomes. This was carried out using a three-step procedure: calculating the mean annual, monsoon, and non-monsoon precipitation and temperatures; estimating the percent change from historical conditions; and developing scenario funnels and synthetic scenarios. This methodology was applied for the entire south Asia region; however, the percent change information generated at 1.5deg grid scale can be used to generate scenarios at finer spatial scales. Our results showed a high variability in the future change in precipitation (-23% to 52%, maximum in the non-monsoon season) and temperature (0.8% to 2.1%) in the region. Temperatures in the region consistently increased, especially in the Himalayan region, which could have impacts including a faster retreat of glaciers and increased floods. It could also change rivers from perennial to seasonal, leading to significant challenges in water management. Increasing temperatures could further stress groundwater reservoirs, leading to withdrawal rates that become even more unsustainable. The high precipitation variability (with higher propensity for

  9. Assessment of 1.5°C and 2°C climate change scenarios impact on wheat production in Tunisia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bergaoui, karim; Belhaj Fraj, Makram; Zaaboul, Rashyd; Allen, Myles; Mitchell, Dann; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Saeed, Fahad; Mc Donnell, Rachael

    2017-04-01

    years' state-level production data. Finally, we forced the crop model with HAPPI bias corrected outputs using ISI-MIP approach where the trend and the long-term mean are well represented and we assessed the impact of each scenario on the wheat production at the national level. The results highlighted a difference in wheat yield in some biophysical areas and farming systems. This insight is important as countries develop mitigation and adaptation strategies as the impact costs can be included.

  10. The production and assessment of a plastic rod for the Chinese Reference Preparation for Opacity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yi, X B; Xu, H L; Qin, J C; Qiao, L Y

    1989-04-01

    A reference preparation for opacity consisting of a plastic rod was introduced by Perkins et al. in 1973. It was adopted as the International Reference Preparation for Opacity in 1975. This plastic rod opacity reference preparation has been used to standardize the Chinese National Bacterial Opacity Standard. The material was prepared from plastic sheet by a water-bath method and by a dry-heat method; the sheet was then machined into the plastic rods. We have studied the technical processes and set up methods for the examination of the sheets and rods. The water-bath method was found to be better than the dry-heat method in our tests. Collaborative assays in research institutes of biological products have shown that the plastic rod can replace the glass-powder suspension. The duration of validity of the plastic rod opacity reference preparation and that of the glass-powder suspension used for the Chinese National Bacterial Opacity Standard were studied and found to be similar. For this reason the plastic rod opacity reference preparation has not been widely used in China.

  11. Disturbance automated reference toolset (DART): Assessing patterns in ecological recovery from energy development on the Colorado Plateau

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nauman, Travis; Duniway, Michael C.; Villarreal, Miguel; Poitras, Travis

    2017-01-01

    A new disturbance automated reference toolset (DART) was developed to monitor human land surface impacts using soil-type and ecological context. DART identifies reference areas with similar soils, topography, and geology; and compares the disturbance condition to the reference area condition using a quantile-based approach based on a satellite vegetation index. DART was able to represent 26–55% of variation of relative differences in bare ground and 26–41% of variation in total foliar cover when comparing sites with nearby ecological reference areas using the Soil Adjusted Total Vegetation Index (SATVI). Assessment of ecological recovery at oil and gas pads on the Colorado Plateau with DART revealed that more than half of well-pads were below the 25th percentile of reference areas. Machine learning trend analysis of poorly recovering well-pads (quantile < 0.23) had out-of-bag error rates between 37 and 40% indicating moderate association with environmental and management variables hypothesized to influence recovery. Well-pads in grasslands (median quantile [MQ] = 13%), blackbrush (Coleogyne ramosissima) shrublands (MQ = 18%), arid canyon complexes (MQ = 18%), warmer areas with more summer-dominated precipitation, and state administered areas (MQ = 12%) had low recovery rates. Results showcase the usefulness of DART for assessing discrete surface land disturbances, and highlight the need for more targeted rehabilitation efforts at oil and gas well-pads in the arid southwest US.

  12. Significant vestibular system impairment is common in a cohort of elderly patients referred for assessment of falls risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacobson, Gary P; McCaslin, Devin L; Grantham, Sarah L; Piker, Erin G

    2008-01-01

    Falls in elderly patients are associated with morbidity, mortality, and cost to the healthcare system. The development of falls risk assessment programs have represented a method of responding to what is known about injurious falls. The multidimensional assessments involve the comparison against normative data of a patient's performance on metrics known to influence the likelihood of future falls. The factors assessed usually include falls and medication history, measures of mentation, depression, orthostatic hypotension, simple or choice reaction time, gait stability, postural stability, and the integrity of the patient's vision, somesthetic, and vestibular senses. This investigation was conducted to measure the proportion of patients referred for falls risk assessment who have evidence of vestibular system impairment. Qualitative, retrospective review of data collected from 2003 to 2007. The cohort was 185 consecutive patients referred for multidimensional assessments of falls risk. Patients underwent quantitative assessments of peripheral and central vestibular system function consisting of electro- or videonystagmography (i.e., ENG/VNG), and sinusoidal harmonic acceleration testing. Results of these tests were compared to normative data. We found that 73% of the sample who underwent vestibular system assessment had quantitative evidence of either peripheral or central vestibular system impairment. Our results suggest that quantitative assessments of the vestibulo-ocular reflex should be conducted on patients who are evaluated for falls risk. These examinations should include at least caloric testing and, where available, rotational testing.

  13. Using Virtual Reality to Assess Ethical Decisions in Road Traffic Scenarios: Applicability of Value-of-Life-Based Models and Influences of Time Pressure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leon R. Sütfeld

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Self-driving cars are posing a new challenge to our ethics. By using algorithms to make decisions in situations where harming humans is possible, probable, or even unavoidable, a self-driving car's ethical behavior comes pre-defined. Ad hoc decisions are made in milliseconds, but can be based on extensive research and debates. The same algorithms are also likely to be used in millions of cars at a time, increasing the impact of any inherent biases, and increasing the importance of getting it right. Previous research has shown that moral judgment and behavior are highly context-dependent, and comprehensive and nuanced models of the underlying cognitive processes are out of reach to date. Models of ethics for self-driving cars should thus aim to match human decisions made in the same context. We employed immersive virtual reality to assess ethical behavior in simulated road traffic scenarios, and used the collected data to train and evaluate a range of decision models. In the study, participants controlled a virtual car and had to choose which of two given obstacles they would sacrifice in order to spare the other. We randomly sampled obstacles from a variety of inanimate objects, animals and humans. Our model comparison shows that simple models based on one-dimensional value-of-life scales are suited to describe human ethical behavior in these situations. Furthermore, we examined the influence of severe time pressure on the decision-making process. We found that it decreases consistency in the decision patterns, thus providing an argument for algorithmic decision-making in road traffic. This study demonstrates the suitability of virtual reality for the assessment of ethical behavior in humans, delivering consistent results across subjects, while closely matching the experimental settings to the real world scenarios in question.

  14. Assessment of H.264 video compression on automated face recognition performance in surveillance and mobile video scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klare, Brendan; Burge, Mark

    2010-04-01

    We assess the impact of the H.264 video codec on the match performance of automated face recognition in surveillance and mobile video applications. A set of two hundred access control (90 pixel inter-pupilary distance) and distance surveillance (45 pixel inter-pupilary distance) videos taken under non-ideal imaging and facial recognition (e.g., pose, illumination, and expression) conditions were matched using two commercial face recognition engines in the studies. The first study evaluated automated face recognition performance on access control and distance surveillance videos at CIF and VGA resolutions using the H.264 baseline profile at nine bitrates rates ranging from 8kbs to 2048kbs. In our experiments, video signals were able to be compressed up to 128kbs before a significant drop face recognition performance occurred. The second study evaluated automated face recognition on mobile devices at QCIF, iPhone, and Android resolutions for each of the H.264 PDA profiles. Rank one match performance, cumulative match scores, and failure to enroll rates are reported.

  15. Assessing Risks to Sea Otters and the Exxon Valdez Oil Spill: New Scenarios, Attributable Risk, and Recovery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harwell, Mark A.; Gentile, John H.

    2014-01-01

    The Exxon Valdez oil spill occurred more than two decades ago, and the Prince William Sound ecosystem has essentially recovered. Nevertheless, discussion continues on whether or not localized effects persist on sea otters (Enhydra lutris) at northern Knight Island (NKI) and, if so, what are the associated attributable risks. A recent study estimated new rates of sea otter encounters with subsurface oil residues (SSOR) from the oil spill. We previously demonstrated that a potential pathway existed for exposures to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and conducted a quantitative ecological risk assessment using an individual-based model that simulated this and other plausible exposure pathways. Here we quantitatively update the potential for this exposure pathway to constitute an ongoing risk to sea otters using the new estimates of SSOR encounters. Our conservative model predicted that the assimilated doses of PAHs to the 1-in-1000th most-exposed sea otters would remain 1–2 orders of magnitude below the chronic effects thresholds. We re-examine the baseline estimates, post-spill surveys, recovery status, and attributable risks for this subpopulation. We conclude that the new estimated frequencies of encountering SSOR do not constitute a plausible risk for sea otters at NKI and these sea otters have fully recovered from the oil spill. PMID:24587690

  16. Assessing Risks to Sea Otters and the Exxon Valdez Oil Spill: New Scenarios, Attributable Risk, and Recovery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harwell, Mark A; Gentile, John H

    2014-06-01

    The Exxon Valdez oil spill occurred more than two decades ago, and the Prince William Sound ecosystem has essentially recovered. Nevertheless, discussion continues on whether or not localized effects persist on sea otters (Enhydra lutris) at northern Knight Island (NKI) and, if so, what are the associated attributable risks. A recent study estimated new rates of sea otter encounters with subsurface oil residues (SSOR) from the oil spill. We previously demonstrated that a potential pathway existed for exposures to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and conducted a quantitative ecological risk assessment using an individual-based model that simulated this and other plausible exposure pathways. Here we quantitatively update the potential for this exposure pathway to constitute an ongoing risk to sea otters using the new estimates of SSOR encounters. Our conservative model predicted that the assimilated doses of PAHs to the 1-in-1000th most-exposed sea otters would remain 1-2 orders of magnitude below the chronic effects thresholds. We re-examine the baseline estimates, post-spill surveys, recovery status, and attributable risks for this subpopulation. We conclude that the new estimated frequencies of encountering SSOR do not constitute a plausible risk for sea otters at NKI and these sea otters have fully recovered from the oil spill.

  17. Comparative life cycle assessment and life cycle costing of four disposal scenarios for used polyethylene terephthalate bottles in Mauritius.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foolmaun, Rajendra Kumar; Ramjeeawon, Toolseeram

    2012-09-01

    The annual rise in population growth coupled with the flourishing tourism industry in Mauritius has lead to a considerable increase in the amount of solid waste generated. In parallel, the disposal of non-biodegradable wastes, especially plastic packaging and plastic bottles, has also shown a steady rise. Improper disposal of used polyethylene terephthalate (PET) bottles constitutes an eyesore to the environmental landscape and is a threat to the flourishing tourism industry. It is of utmost importance, therefore, to determine a suitable disposal method for used PET bottles which is not only environmentally efficient but is also cost effective. This study investigated the environmental impacts and the cost effectiveness of four selected disposal alternatives for used PET bottles in Mauritius. The four disposal routes investigated were: 100% landfilling; 75% incineration with energy recovery and 25% landfilling; 40% flake production (partial recycling) and 60% landfilling; and 75% flake production and 25% landfilling. Environmental impacts of the disposal alternatives were determined using ISO standardized life cycle assessment (LCA) and with the support of SimaPro 7.1 software. Cost effectiveness was determined using life cycle costing (LCC). Collected data were entered into a constructed Excel-based model to calculate the different cost categories, Net present values, damage costs and payback periods. LCA and LCC results indicated that 75% flake production and 25% landfilling was the most environmentally efficient and cost-effective disposal route for used PET bottles in Mauritius.

  18. "When was that date?" Building and assessing a frame of reference in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Drie, J.; Logtenberg, A.; van der Meijden, B.; van Riessen, M.

    2009-01-01

    Concerns about our ability to equip young people with a frame of reference that they can actually use to orient themselves in time are widespread. The challenges were extensively debated within the last issue of Teaching History, with teachers, researchers and historians not only exploring the

  19. Assessing ecological departure from reference conditions with the Fire Regime Condition Class (FRCC) Mapping Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephen W. Barrett; Thomas DeMeo; Jeffrey L. Jones; J.D. Zeiler; Lee C. Hutter

    2006-01-01

    Knowledge of ecological departure from a range of reference conditions provides a critical context for managing sustainable ecosystems. Fire Regime Condition Class (FRCC) is a qualitative measure characterizing possible departure from historical fire regimes. The FRCC Mapping Tool was developed as an ArcMap extension utilizing the protocol identified by the Interagency...

  20. Reference intervals for platelet aggregation assessed by multiple electrode platelet aggregometry

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rubak, Peter; Villadsen, Kirsten; Hvas, Anne-Mette

    2012-01-01

    and methods We included 121 healthy individuals to establish reference intervals and six healthy individuals for evaluation of the day-to-day variation. Platelet aggregation was evaluated on hirudin whole blood employing Multiplate® induced by arachidonic acid, ADP, collagen and ristocetin (RISTOlow...

  1. Assessment of minute volume of lung in NPP workers for Korean reference man

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Y. J.; Song, S. H.; Lee, J.; Jin, Y. W.; Yim, Y. K.; Kim, J. S. [KNETEC, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2001-05-01

    To formulation of the reference Korean for radiation protection purpose, we measured the forced vital capacity(FVC), forced expiratory volume in second(FEVI), minute ventilation(MV) of Nuclear Power Plant workers using SP-1 Spirometry Unit(Schiller AG. 1998) and eatimated the liters of breathed for working and resting, also compared these data with ICRP 23.

  2. Assessment of international reference materials for isotope-ratio analysis (IUPAC Technical Report)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brand, Willi A.; Coplen, Tyler B.; Vogl, Jochen; Rosner, Martin; Prohaska, Thomas

    2014-01-01

    Since the early 1950s, the number of international measurement standards for anchoring stable isotope delta scales has mushroomed from 3 to more than 30, expanding to more than 25 chemical elements. With the development of new instrumentation, along with new and improved measurement procedures for studying naturally occurring isotopic abundance variations in natural and technical samples, the number of internationally distributed, secondary isotopic reference materials with a specified delta value has blossomed in the last six decades to more than 150 materials. More than half of these isotopic reference materials were produced for isotope-delta measurements of seven elements: H, Li, B, C, N, O, and S. The number of isotopic reference materials for other, heavier elements has grown considerably over the last decade. Nevertheless, even primary international measurement standards for isotope-delta measurements are still needed for some elements, including Mg, Fe, Te, Sb, Mo, and Ge. It is recommended that authors publish the delta values of internationally distributed, secondary isotopic reference materials that were used for anchoring their measurement results to the respective primary stable isotope scale.

  3. Assessing Factors in Adolescent Adjustment as Precursors to Recidivism in Court-Referred Youth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balkin, Richard S.; Miller, Janeen; Ricard, Richard J.; Garcia, Roberto; Lancaster, Chloe

    2011-01-01

    Court-referred youth participated in an intervention program and completed the Reynolds Adolescent Adjustment Screening Inventory. Reoffending rates were tracked for 2 years. Antisocial behavior, anger control, and emotional distress were influencing characteristics for recidivism. The Reynolds Adolescent Adjustment Screening Inventory may serve…

  4. Accuracy assessment of NOAA gridded daily reference evapotranspiration for the Texas High Plains

    Science.gov (United States)

    The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) provides daily reference evapotranspiration (ETref) maps for the contiguous United States using climatic data from North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS). This data provides large-scale spatial representation of ETref, which i...

  5. Accuracy assessment of NOAA gridded daily reference evapotranspiration for the Texas High Plains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moorhead, Jerry; Gowda, Prasanna H.; Hobbins, Michael; Senay, Gabriel; Paul, George; Marek, Thomas; Porter, Dana

    2015-01-01

    The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) provides daily reference evapotranspiration (ETref) maps for the contiguous United States using climatic data from North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS). This data provides large-scale spatial representation of ETref, which is essential for regional scale water resources management. Data used in the development of NOAA daily ETref maps are derived from observations over surfaces that are different from short (grass — ETos) or tall (alfalfa — ETrs) reference crops, often in nonagricultural settings, which carries an unknown discrepancy between assumed and actual conditions. In this study, NOAA daily ETos and ETrs maps were evaluated for accuracy, using observed data from the Texas High Plains Evapotranspiration (TXHPET) network. Daily ETos, ETrs and the climatic data (air temperature, wind speed, and solar radiation) used for calculating ETref were extracted from the NOAA maps for TXHPET locations and compared against ground measurements on reference grass surfaces. NOAA ETrefmaps generally overestimated the TXHPET observations (1.4 and 2.2 mm/day ETos and ETrs, respectively), which may be attributed to errors in the NLDAS modeled air temperature and wind speed, to which reference ETref is most sensitive. Therefore, a bias correction to NLDAS modeled air temperature and wind speed data, or adjustment to the resulting NOAA ETref, may be needed to improve the accuracy of NOAA ETref maps.

  6. Subjective Memory Ability and Long-Term Forgetting in Patients Referred for Neuropsychological Assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Werf, S.P.; Geurts, S.; de Werd, M.M.E.

    2016-01-01

    It has been suggested that the memory complaints of patients who are not impaired on formal memory tests may reflect accelerated forgetting. We examined this hypothesis by comparing the 1-week delayed recall and recognition test performance of outpatients who were referred for neuropsychological

  7. Subjective memory ability and long-term forgetting in patients referred for neuropsychological assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Werf, S.P. van der; Geurts, S.; Werd, M.M.E. de

    2016-01-01

    It has been suggested that the memory complaints of patients who are not impaired on formal memory tests may reflect accelerated forgetting. We examined this hypothesis by comparing the 1-week delayed recall and recognition test performance of outpatients who were referred for neuropsychological

  8. Development of Head Injury Assessment Reference Values Based on NASA Injury Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Somers, Jeffrey T.; Melvin, John W.; Tabiei, Ala; Lawrence, Charles; Ploutz-Snyder, Robert; Granderson, Bradley; Feiveson, Alan; Gernhardt, Michael; Patalak, John

    2011-01-01

    NASA is developing a new capsule-based, crewed vehicle that will land in the ocean, and the space agency desires to reduce the risk of injury from impact during these landings. Because landing impact occurs for each flight and the crew might need to perform egress tasks, current injury assessment reference values (IARV) were deemed insufficient. Because NASCAR occupant restraint systems are more effective than the systems used to determine the current IARVs and are similar to NASA s proposed restraint system, an analysis of NASCAR impacts was performed to develop new IARVs that may be more relevant to NASA s context of vehicle landing operations. Head IARVs associated with race car impacts were investigated by completing a detailed analysis of all of the 2002-2008 NASCAR impact data. Specific inclusion and exclusion criteria were used to select 4071 impacts from the 4015 recorder files provided (each file could contain multiple impact events). Of the 4071 accepted impacts, 274 were selected for numerical simulation using a custom NASCAR restraint system and Humanetics Hybrid-III 50th percentile numerical dummy model in LS-DYNA. Injury had occurred in 32 of the 274 selected impacts, and 27 of those injuries involved the head. A majority of the head injuries were mild concussions with or without brief loss of consciousness. The 242 non-injury impacts were randomly selected and representative of the range of crash dynamics present in the total set of 4071 impacts. Head dynamics data (head translational acceleration, translational change in velocity, rotational acceleration, rotational velocity, HIC-15, HIC-36, and the Head 3ms clip) were filtered according to SAE J211 specifications and then transformed to a log scale. The probability of head injury was estimated using a separate logistic regression analysis for each log-transformed predictor candidate. Using the log transformation constrains the estimated probability of injury to become negligible as IARVs approach

  9. Basin-scale assessment of water resource availability in climate change scenarios through a grid-based approach: an application to Sicily

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liuzzo, L.; Noto, L. V.; La Loggia, G.

    2009-04-01

    Climate change resulting from the enhanced greenhouse effect is expected to have great implications for hydrological cycle and for existing surface and groundwater resources systems. The effects of climate variability and climate change have to be fully considered in current water management and planning, since water availability, quality and streamflow are sensitive to changes in temperature and precipitation regimes. Since hydrological models are an important tool in the study and analysis of the hydrological processes and in water resources management, international literature proposes several models, that attempt to assess accurately the available water resources under stationary and changing climatic conditions at different spatial and temporal scales. In order to assess the potential impacts of climate change on surface and groundwater resources water availability in a Southern area of Italy, a conceptual model was applied to simulate the hydrological processes in the Belice river basin, located in Sicily. A trend analysis, carried out using non-parametric techniques, highlighted a decrease of precipitation and an increase of temperature for the area of study over the last 80 years. The model was applied for current conditions of precipitation and temperature as well as under the hypothesis of climate variations, as represented by scenarios consistent with the climate trend analysis. The analysis of the climatic forcing trend provided the parameters needed in order to generate synthetic climate forcing series through the use of stochastic approaches. The conceptual model, developed and applied in this study, is the TOpography based Probability Distributed Model, indicated as TOPDM, resulting from the combination and integration of TOPMODEL into a probability distributed model. Through a relationship between topographic index and storage capacity, this model reflects adequately the influence of basin topography in the hydrological process of runoff generation

  10. A dynamic reference model: a framework for assessing biodiversity restoration goals in a fire-dependent ecosystem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirkman, L Katherine; Barnett, Analie; Williams, Brett W; Hiers, J Kevin; Pokswinski, Scottrr M; Mitchell, Robert J

    2013-10-01

    The use of reference models as templates of historical or natural conditions to assess restoration progress is inherently logical; however, difficulties occur in application because of the need to incorporate temporal variation in ecosystems caused by disturbance and succession, as well as seasonal, interannual, or decadal variability. The landscape-scale restoration of the globally threatened and fire-dependent longleaf pine ecosystem in the southeastern United States is an example in which restoration efforts are even more complicated by the limited availability of extant reference sites. This study uses the dynamic reference conceptual framework to assess the direction and rate of recovery with respect to biodiversity restoration goals using a 15-year vegetation data set from an experimental restoration treatment in fire-excluded, hardwood-encroached longleaf pine sandhills. We compared ground-cover vegetation response to midstory hardwood removal through herbicide application, mechanical removal, and fire only. Nonmetric multidimensional scaling ordinations and proportional similarity analyses suggest that, while vegetation changed in all treatments over time, no differences in species composition or hardwood density in the ground cover were attributable to hardwood reduction treatments after 15 years with frequent prescribed fire. Furthermore, the results of this study indicate that considerable variability is associated with reference sites over time. Sites identified in 1994 as attainable restoration targets had become a moving target themselves, changing in magnitude consistent with alterations in restoration plots attributable to treatment effects and shaped by the modest increase in fire frequency imposed since 1998. In a broad restoration context, this study demonstrates a conceptual framework to better understand and integrate the range of spatial and temporal variation associated with the best available reference sites. It also illustrates a practical

  11. Global cross-station assessment of neuro-fuzzy models for estimating daily reference evapotranspiration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shiri, Jalal; Nazemi, Amir Hossein; Sadraddini, Ali Ashraf; Landeras, Gorka; Kisi, Ozgur; Fard, Ahmad Fakheri; Marti, Pau

    2013-02-01

    SummaryAccurate estimation of reference evapotranspiration is important for irrigation scheduling, water resources management and planning and other agricultural water management issues. In the present paper, the capabilities of generalized neuro-fuzzy models were evaluated for estimating reference evapotranspiration using two separate sets of weather data from humid and non-humid regions of Spain and Iran. In this way, the data from some weather stations in the Basque Country and Valencia region (Spain) were used for training the neuro-fuzzy models [in humid and non-humid regions, respectively] and subsequently, the data from these regions were pooled to evaluate the generalization capability of a general neuro-fuzzy model in humid and non-humid regions. The developed models were tested in stations of Iran, located in humid and non-humid regions. The obtained results showed the capabilities of generalized neuro-fuzzy model in estimating reference evapotranspiration in different climatic zones. Global GNF models calibrated using both non-humid and humid data were found to successfully estimate ET0 in both non-humid and humid regions of Iran (the lowest MAE values are about 0.23 mm for non-humid Iranian regions and 0.12 mm for humid regions). non-humid GNF models calibrated using non-humid data performed much better than the humid GNF models calibrated using humid data in non-humid region while the humid GNF model gave better estimates in humid region.

  12. Utilizing a reference material for assessing absolute tumor mechanical properties in modality independent elastography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Dong Kyu; Weis, Jared A.; Yankeelov, Thomas E.; Miga, Michael I.

    2014-03-01

    There is currently no reliable method for early characterization of breast cancer response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) [1,2]. Given that disruption of normal structural architecture occurs in cancer-bearing tissue, we hypothesize that further structural changes occur in response to NAC. Consequently, we are investigating the use of modalityindependent elastography (MIE) [3-8] as a method for monitoring mechanical integrity to predict long term outcomes in NAC. Recently, we have utilized a Demons non-rigid image registration method that allows 3D elasticity reconstruction in abnormal tissue geometries, making it particularly amenable to the evaluation of breast cancer mechanical properties. While past work has reflected relative elasticity contrast ratios [3], this study improves upon that work by utilizing a known stiffness reference material within the reconstruction framework such that a stiffness map becomes an absolute measure. To test, a polyvinyl alcohol (PVA) cryogel phantom and a silicone rubber mock mouse tumor phantom were constructed with varying mechanical stiffness. Results showed that an absolute measure of stiffness could be obtained based on a reference value. This reference technique demonstrates the ability to generate accurate measurements of absolute stiffness to characterize response to NAC. These results support that `referenced MIE' has the potential to reliably differentiate absolute tumor stiffness with significant contrast from that of surrounding tissue. The use of referenced MIE to obtain absolute quantification of biomarkers is also translatable across length scales such that the characterization method is mechanics-consistent at the small animal and human application.

  13. Risk factor scenario in an industrial set-up: Need for an effective screening tool to assess the high-risk group

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iyer Uma

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Industrial and technological revolution has resulted in nutrition transition. This calls for analyzing the risk factor scenario in the industrial population. Objective: The objective was to map the prevalence and assess the risk factors of industrial employees. Materials and Methods: The employees of a large petrochemical industry were enrolled (N=269 for the study. Risk factors were elicited through a structured questionnaire. Parameters monitored were fasting blood sugar and lipid profile. Relative risk was calculated to find out significant predictor variables. Results: The employees had high prevalence of overweight (27%, obesity (22%, central obesity (48.7%, prehypertension (43.2%, hypertension (36.6%, and dyslipidemia (41.4%. They had erroneous dietary habits such as low intake of fruits and vegetables and high fat intake. Most of the employees had low physical activity levels. The prevalence of smoking (13.5%, tobacco (28.2%, and alcohol use (22.2% were also high with 15.1% having multiple habits. One-fifth of the employees had metabolic syndrome (MS. Seven predictor variables, namely, family history, BMI, WHR, blood pressure, physical inactivity, TG, and TG/H were identified and used to develop the risk score card to identify people at high risk of CVD and DM. Conclusion: Multiple risk factor scenario among the industrial population studied calls for effective intervention strategies and policy changes to combat the burden of non-communicable diseases. The risk score card can be used to screen the high-risk group in the industrial population.

  14. An Independent Assessment of Evacuation Time Estimates for A Peak Population Scenario in the Emergency Planning Zone of the Seabrook Nuclear Power Station

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moeller, M. P.; Urbanik, II, T.; Mclean, M. A.; Desrosiers, A. E.

    1982-11-01

    This study comprises two major tasks. First, it includes an independent assessment of the methods and assumptions used in calculating evacuation time estimates (ETEs) applicable to the general population for a peak population scenario in the emergency planning zone {EPZ) of the Seabrook Nuclear Power Station. This consists of a review and analysis of previous work by Public Service of New Hampshire {PSNH) and the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), as well as an independent calculation of evacuation times using the CLEAR model for the demographic data reported by PSNH. Secondly, this study includes independent estimations of evacuation time for the peak population scenario developed using demographic data prepared by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission {NRC). These evacuation time estimates are approximately 60% and 84% greater, respectively, than the estimate provided by PSNH for a simulataneous evacuation of the entire EPZ under peak conditions. The CLEAR model, which was developed by Pacific Northwest Laboratory {PNL) under the sponsorship of the. NRC, was also used for these latter calculations. The results of this study reveal the importance of the assumptions used for calculating evacuation times. Because traffic routings and management plans have not been prepared for the area, the CLEAR calculations utilized indepdently prepared traffic routings and assumptions. A detailed analysis of the results suggests that the ETEs submitted by PSNH are consistent with the methods and assumptions which provide the bases for PSNH•s evacuation time estimates. Differences among evacuation time estimates stem largely from differences jn the assumed size of the evacuating population and the estimated effectiveness of traffic controls.

  15. Population Characteristics of Drunk Drivers Referred for Assessment in Two Wisconsin Counties 1981-1983.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gurnack, Anne M.

    1986-01-01

    Summarizes a study of Wisconsin's drunk driving law and evaluates the mandated alcohol assessment for convicted offenders. Findings indicated individuals operating while intoxicated remain young, male, unmarried, with high school educations. A substantial number of these persons were assessed with serious drinking problems. The strongest predictor…

  16. Environmental Impact of End-of-Life Tires: Life Cycle Assessment Comparison of Three Scenarios from a Case Study in Valle Del Cauca, Colombia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oscar O. Ortíz-Rodríguez

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Life Cycle Assessment methodology has been applied to estimate diverse environmental impacts of different usage alternatives for worn-out tires at the end of their useful life in a case study at the Department of Valle del Cauca, Colombia. Different real scenarios were compared, which allowed for the assessment of the best environmental option for the management of worn-out tires. A method developed in the Institute of Environmental Sciences at University of Leiden, better known as CML-2001, was used to calculate the environmental impact indicators. The results show that the incineration of whole tires in cement plants, and the activities of grinding and floor manufacturing from granulated rubber, exhibited the best indicators, especially in terms of environmental load avoidance through the recovery of materials. Finally, the categories of depletion of the ozone layer, acidification, global warming potential, depletion of abiotic resources, and photochemical ozone formation revealed that the strongest environmental impacts are associated with retreading and the production of multipart asphalt. This is due to the use of synthetic rubber in the former alternative, and of liquid asphalt, gravel, and diesel consumption in the latter.

  17. Utilizing the Global Land Cover 2000 reference dataset for a comparative accuracy assessment of 1 km global land cover maps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schultz, M.; Tsendbazazr, N. E.; Herold, M.; Jung, M.; Mayaux, P.; Goehman, H.

    2015-04-01

    Many investigators use global land cover (GLC) maps for different purposes, such as an input for global climate models. The current GLC maps used for such purposes are based on different remote sensing data, methodologies and legends. Consequently, comparison of GLC maps is difficult and information about their relative utility is limited. The objective of this study is to analyse and compare the thematic accuracies of GLC maps (i.e., IGBP-DISCover, UMD, MODIS, GLC2000 and SYNMAP) at 1 km resolutions by (a) re-analysing the GLC2000 reference dataset, (b) applying a generalized GLC legend and (c) comparing their thematic accuracies at different homogeneity levels. The accuracy assessment was based on the GLC2000 reference dataset with 1253 samples that were visually interpreted. The legends of the GLC maps and the reference datasets were harmonized into 11 general land cover classes. There results show that the map accuracy estimates vary up to 10-16% depending on the homogeneity of the reference point (HRP) for all the GLC maps. An increase of the HRP resulted in higher overall accuracies but reduced accuracy confidence for the GLC maps due to less number of accountable samples. The overall accuracy of the SYNMAP was the highest at any HRP level followed by the GLC2000. The overall accuracies of the maps also varied by up to 10% depending on the definition of agreement between the reference and map categories in heterogeneous landscape. A careful consideration of heterogeneous landscape is therefore recommended for future accuracy assessments of land cover maps.

  18. Imaged based estimation of food volume using circular referents in dietary assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jia, Wenyan; Yue, Yaofeng; Fernstrom, John D; Yao, Ning; Sclabassi, Robert J; Fernstrom, Madelyn H; Sun, Mingui

    2012-03-01

    Measuring food volume (portion size) is a critical component in both clinical and research dietary studies. With the wide availability of cell phones and other camera-ready mobile devices, food pictures can be taken, stored or transmitted easily to form an image based dietary record. Although this record enables a more accurate dietary recall, a digital image of food usually cannot be used to estimate portion size directly due to the lack of information about the scale and orientation of the food within the image. The objective of this study is to investigate two novel approaches to provide the missing information, enabling food volume estimation from a single image. Both approaches are based on an elliptical reference pattern, such as the image of a circular pattern (e.g., circular plate) or a projected elliptical spotlight. Using this reference pattern and image processing techniques, the location and orientation of food objects and their volumes are calculated. Experiments were performed to validate our methods using a variety of objects, including regularly shaped objects and food samples.

  19. Ecobiological assessment of a freshwater lake at Schirmacher Oasis, East Antarctica, with reference to human activities

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Ingole, B.S.; Dhargalkar, V.K.

    The scale and magnitude of probable impact of human activities over a decade (1983-1994) on the freshwater lake Priyadarshini, at Schirmacher Oasis, East Antarctica, was assessed through an ecological study conducted over an annual cycle during...

  20. WATER RESOURCES STATUS AND AVAILABILITY ASSESSMENT IN CURRENT AND FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS FOR BEAS RIVER BASIN OF NORTH WESTERN HIMALAYA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. P. Aggarwal

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The water resources status and availability of any river basin is of primary importance for overall and sustainable development of any river basin. This study has been done in Beas river basin which is located in North Western Himalaya for assessing the status of water resources in present and future climate change scenarios. In this study hydrological modelling approach has been used for quantifying the water balance components of Beas river basin upto Pandoh. The variable infiltration capacity (VIC model has been used in energy balance mode for Beas river basin at 1km grid scale. The VIC model has been run with snow elevation zones files to simulate the snow module of VIC. The model was run with National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP forcing data (Tmax, Tmin, Rainfall and wind speed at 0.5degree resolution from 1 Jan. 1999 to 31 Dec 2006 for calibration purpose. The additional component of glacier melt was added into overall river runoff using semi-empirical approach utilizing air temperature and glacier type and extent data. The ground water component is computed from overall recharge of ground water by water balance approach. The overall water balance approach is validated with river discharge data provided by Bhakra Beas Management Board (BBMB from 1994-2014. VIC routing module was used to assess pixel wise flow availability at daily, monthly and annual time scales. The mean monthly flow at Pandoh during study period varied from 19 - 1581 m3/s from VIC and 50 to 1556 m3/sec from observation data, with minimum water flow occurring in month of January and maximum flow in month of August with annual R2 of 0.68. The future climate change data is taken from CORDEX database. The climate model of NOAA-GFDL-ESM2M for IPCC RCP scenario 4.5 and 8.5 were used for South Asia at 0.44 deg. grid from year 2006 to 2100. The climate forcing data for VIC model was prepared using daily maximum and minimum near surface air temperature, daily

  1. Development of dietary-based toxic reference values to assess the risk of chlorophacinone to non-target raptorial birds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rattner, Barnett A.; Lazarus, Rebecca S.; Shultz, S. L.; Horak, Katherine E.; Abbo, Benjamin G.; Volker, Steven F.; Timms, R. M.; O'Brien, J. M.

    2014-01-01

    Regulatory changes in the use of some second-generation anticoagulant rodenticides in parts of North America may result in expanded use of first-generation anticoagulant rodenticides (FGARs). Recent toxicological studies with captive raptors have demonstrated that these species are considerably more sensitive to the FGAR diphacinone than traditional avian wildlife test species (mallard, bobwhite). We have now examined the toxicity of the FGAR chlorophacinone (CPN) to American kestrels fed rat tissue mechanically-amended with CPN, or rat tissue containing biologically-incorporated CPN, for 7 days. Nominal CPN concentrations in these diets were 0.15, 0.75 and 1.5 µg/g food wet weight, and actual CPN concentration in diets were analytically verified as being close to target values. Food intake was consistent among groups, body weight fluctuated by less than 6%, exposure and adverse effects were generally dose-dependent, and there were no dramatic differences in toxicity between mechanically-amended and biologically-incorporated CPN diets. Using benchmark dose statistical methods, toxic reference values at which clotting times were prolonged in 50% of the kestrels was estimated to be about 80 µg CPN consumed/kg body weight-day for prothrombin time and 40 µg CPN/kg body weight-day for Russell's viper venom time. Based upon carcass CPN residues reported in rodents from field baiting studies, empirical measures of food consumption in kestrels, and dietary-based toxic reference values derived from the 7-day exposure scenario, some free-ranging raptors consuming CPN exposed prey might exhibit coagulopathy and hemorrhage. These sublethal responses associated with exposure to environmentally realistic concentrations of CPN could compromise survival of exposed birds.

  2. An eco-hydrological modeling framework for assessing trade-offs among ecosystem services in response to alternative land use scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mckane, R.; Abdelnour, A. G.; Brookes, A.; Djang, K.; Stieglitz, M.; Pan, F.; Bolte, J.; Papenfus, M.; Burdick, C.

    2012-12-01

    Scientists, policymakers, community planners and others have discussed ecosystem services for decades, however, society is still in the early stages of developing methodologies to quantify and value the services that ecosystems provide. For example, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency recently established the Sustainable and Healthy Communities Research Program to develop such methodologies, so that natural capital can be better accounted for in decisions that affect the supply of the ecosystem goods and services upon which human well-being depends. Essential to this goal are highly integrated models that can be used to define policy and management strategies for entire ecosystems, not simply individual components of the ecosystem. We developed the VELMA (Visualizing Ecosystems for Land Management Assessments) eco-hydrologic modeling framework to help address this emerging risk assessment objective. Here we describe a proof-of-concept application of VELMA to the H.J. Andrews Experimental Forest, a forested 64 km2 basin and Long Term Ecological Research site in the western Cascade Range of Oregon, USA. VELMA is a spatially-distributed eco-hydrologic model that links a land surface hydrologic model with a terrestrial biogeochemistry model for simulating the integrated responses of vegetation, soil, and water resources to interacting stressors. We used the model to simulate the effects of three different land use scenarios (100% old-growth, 100% clearcut harvest, and present-day land cover consisting of 45% old-growth and 55% harvested) on trade-offs among five ecosystem services: timber production, carbon sequestration, greenhouse gas regulation, water quantity, and water quality. Compared to the old-growth simulation, over a 60-yr period the clearcut simulation reduced total ecosystem carbon stocks (-40%), and initially increased total stream discharge (+28%), stream nitrogen export (>300%), and total CO2 and N2O radiative forcing (>200%). The simulation for

  3. Toxicity reference values for chlorophacinone and their application for assessing anticoagulant rodenticide risk to raptors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rattner, Barnett A.; Horak, Katherine E.; Lazarus, Rebecca S.; Schultz, Sandra; Knowles, Susan N.; Abbo, Benjamin G.; Volker, Steven F.

    2015-01-01

    Despite widespread use and benefit, there are growing concerns regarding hazards of second-generation anticoagulant rodenticides to non-target wildlife which may result in expanded use of first-generation compounds, including chlorophacinone (CPN). The toxicity of CPN over a 7-day exposure period was investigated in American kestrels (Falco sparverius) fed either rat tissue mechanically-amended with CPN, tissue from rats fed Rozol® bait (biologically-incorporated CPN), or control diets (tissue from untreated rats or commercial bird of prey diet) ad libitum. Nominal CPN concentrations in the formulated diets were 0.15, 0.75 and 1.5 µg/g food wet weight, and measured concentrations averaged 94 % of target values. Kestrel food consumption was similar among groups and body weight varied by less than 6 %. Overt signs of intoxication, liver CPN residues, and changes in prothrombin time (PT), Russell’s viper venom time (RVVT) and hematocrit, were generally dose-dependent. Histological evidence of hemorrhage was present at all CPN dose levels, and most frequently observed in pectoral muscle and heart. There were no apparent differences in toxicity between mechanically-amended and biologically-incorporated CPN diet formulations. Dietary-based toxicity reference values at which clotting times were prolonged in 50 % of the kestrels were 79.2 µg CPN consumed/kg body weight-day for PT and 39.1 µg/kg body weight-day for RVVT. Based upon daily food consumption of kestrels and previously reported CPN concentrations found in small mammals following field baiting trials, these toxicity reference values might be exceeded by free-ranging raptors consuming such exposed prey. Tissue-based toxicity reference values for coagulopathy in 50 % of exposed birds were 0.107 µg CPN/g liver wet weight for PT and 0.076 µg/g liver for RVVT, and are below the range of residue levels reported in raptor mortality incidents attributed to CPN exposure. Sublethal responses associated

  4. Columnar modelling of nucleation burst evolution in the convective boundary layer – first results from a feasibility study Part III: Preliminary results on physicochemical model performance using two "clean air mass" reference scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. Hellmuth

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available In Paper I of four papers, a revised columnar high-order model to investigate gas-aerosol-turbulence interactions in the convective boundary layer (CBL was proposed. In Paper II, the model capability to predict first-, second- and third-order moments of meteorological variables in the CBL was demonstrated using available observational data. In the present Paper III, the high-order modelling concept is extended to sulphur and ammonia chemistry as well as to aerosol dynamics. Based on the previous CBL simulation, a feasibility study is performed using two "clean air mass" scenarios with an emission source at the ground but low aerosol background concentration. Such scenarios synoptically correspond to the advection of fresh post-frontal air in an anthropogenically influenced region. The aim is to evaluate the time-height evolution of ultrafine condensation nuclei (UCNs and to elucidate the interactions between meteorological and physicochemical variables in a CBL column. The scenarios differ in the treatment of new particle formation (NPF, whereas homogeneous nucleation according to the classical nucleation theory (CNT is considered. The first scenario considers nucleation of a binary system consisting of water vapour and sulphuric acid (H2SO4 vapour, the second one nucleation of a ternary system additionally involving ammonia (NH3. Here, the two synthetic scenarios are discussed in detail, whereas special attention is payed to the role of turbulence in the formation of the typical UCN burst behaviour, that can often be observed in the surface layer. The intercomparison of the two scenarios reveals large differences in the evolution of the UCN number concentration in the surface layer as well as in the time-height cross-sections of first-order moments and double correlation terms. Although in both cases the occurrence of NPF bursts could be simulated, the burst characteristics and genesis of the bursts are completely different. It is demonstrated

  5. Columnar modelling of nucleation burst evolution in the convective boundary layer - first results from a feasibility study Part III: Preliminary results on physicochemical model performance using two "clean air mass" reference scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hellmuth, O.

    2006-09-01

    In Paper I of four papers, a revised columnar high-order model to investigate gas-aerosol-turbulence interactions in the convective boundary layer (CBL) was proposed. In Paper II, the model capability to predict first-, second- and third-order moments of meteorological variables in the CBL was demonstrated using available observational data. In the present Paper III, the high-order modelling concept is extended to sulphur and ammonia chemistry as well as to aerosol dynamics. Based on the previous CBL simulation, a feasibility study is performed using two "clean air mass" scenarios with an emission source at the ground but low aerosol background concentration. Such scenarios synoptically correspond to the advection of fresh post-frontal air in an anthropogenically influenced region. The aim is to evaluate the time-height evolution of ultrafine condensation nuclei (UCNs) and to elucidate the interactions between meteorological and physicochemical variables in a CBL column. The scenarios differ in the treatment of new particle formation (NPF), whereas homogeneous nucleation according to the classical nucleation theory (CNT) is considered. The first scenario considers nucleation of a binary system consisting of water vapour and sulphuric acid (H2SO4) vapour, the second one nucleation of a ternary system additionally involving ammonia (NH3). Here, the two synthetic scenarios are discussed in detail, whereas special attention is payed to the role of turbulence in the formation of the typical UCN burst behaviour, that can often be observed in the surface layer. The intercomparison of the two scenarios reveals large differences in the evolution of the UCN number concentration in the surface layer as well as in the time-height cross-sections of first-order moments and double correlation terms. Although in both cases the occurrence of NPF bursts could be simulated, the burst characteristics and genesis of the bursts are completely different. It is demonstrated, that

  6. Assessment of models proposed for the 1985 revision of the international geomagnetic reference field

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peddie, N.W.; Zunde, A.K.

    1987-01-01

    Geomagnetic measurements from land, marine and aerial surveys conducted in the years 1945-1964 were used to test the 14 models proposed as additions, for that period, to the series of definitive geomagnetic reference field (DGRF) models. Overall, NASA's 'SFAS' models and the BGS (British Geological Survey) models agree best with these data. Comparisons of the two proposed definitive main-field models for 1980.0, with each other and with the existing IGRF 1980 main-field model, show mostly close agreement, with the greatest absolute differences (several tens of nanotesla) occurring in the region of Antarctica. Comparison of the the three proposed forecast secular-variation models for 1985-1990 with estimates of recent rates of change at 148 magnetic observatories shows that the IZMIRAN (U.S.S.R.) and USGS models are in closest agreement with these data. ?? 1987.

  7. Assessing structural variation in a personal genome-towards a human reference diploid genome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    English, Adam C; Salerno, William J; Hampton, Oliver A; Gonzaga-Jauregui, Claudia; Ambreth, Shruthi; Ritter, Deborah I; Beck, Christine R; Davis, Caleb F; Dahdouli, Mahmoud; Ma, Singer; Carroll, Andrew; Veeraraghavan, Narayanan; Bruestle, Jeremy; Drees, Becky; Hastie, Alex; Lam, Ernest T; White, Simon; Mishra, Pamela; Wang, Min; Han, Yi; Zhang, Feng; Stankiewicz, Pawel; Wheeler, David A; Reid, Jeffrey G; Muzny, Donna M; Rogers, Jeffrey; Sabo, Aniko; Worley, Kim C; Lupski, James R; Boerwinkle, Eric; Gibbs, Richard A

    2015-04-11

    Characterizing large genomic variants is essential to expanding the research and clinical applications of genome sequencing. While multiple data types and methods are available to detect these structural variants (SVs), they remain less characterized than smaller variants because of SV diversity, complexity, and size. These challenges are exacerbated by the experimental and computational demands of SV analysis. Here, we characterize the SV content of a personal genome with Parliament, a publicly available consensus SV-calling infrastructure that merges multiple data types and SV detection methods. We demonstrate Parliament's efficacy via integrated analyses of data from whole-genome array comparative genomic hybridization, short-read next-generation sequencing, long-read (Pacific BioSciences RSII), long-insert (Illumina Nextera), and whole-genome architecture (BioNano Irys) data from the personal genome of a single subject (HS1011). From this genome, Parliament identified 31,007 genomic loci between 100 bp and 1 Mbp that are inconsistent with the hg19 reference assembly. Of these loci, 9,777 are supported as putative SVs by hybrid local assembly, long-read PacBio data, or multi-source heuristics. These SVs span 59 Mbp of the reference genome (1.8%) and include 3,801 events identified only with long-read data. The HS1011 data and complete Parliament infrastructure, including a BAM-to-SV workflow, are available on the cloud-based service DNAnexus. HS1011 SV analysis reveals the limits and advantages of multiple sequencing technologies, specifically the impact of long-read SV discovery. With the full Parliament infrastructure, the HS1011 data constitute a public resource for novel SV discovery, software calibration, and personal genome structural variation analysis.

  8. Assessing data availability for the development of REDD-plus national reference levels.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Umemiya, Chisa; Amano, Masahiro; Wilamart, Suphawadee

    2010-09-30

    Data availability in developing countries is known to be extremely varied and is one of the constraints for setting the national reference levels (RLs) for the REDD-plus (i.e. 'Policy approaches and positive incentives on issues relating to reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation in developing countries; and the role of conservation, sustainable management of forests and enhancement of forest carbon stocks in developing countries') under the UNFCCC. Taking Thailand as a case study country, this paper compares three types of RLs, which require different levels of datasets, including a simple historic RL, a projected forest-trend RL, and a business-as-usual (BAU) RL. Other than the finding that different RLs yielded different estimations on future deforestation areas, the analysis also identified the characteristics of each RL. The historical RL demanded simple data, but can be varied in accordance with a reference year or period. The forest-trend RL can be more reliable than the historical RL, if the country's deforestation trend curve is formed smoothly. The complicated BAU RL is useful as it can demonstrate the additionality of REDD-plus activities and distinguish the country's unintentional efforts. With the REDD-plus that involves widespread participation, there should be steps from which countries choose the appropriate RL; ranging from simpler to more complex measures, in accordance with data availability in each country. Once registered with REDD-plus, the countries with weak capacity and capability should be supported to enhance the data collection system in that country.

  9. Reference-Free Assessment of Speech Intelligibility Using Bispectrum of an Auditory Neurogram.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hossain, Mohammad E; Jassim, Wissam A; Zilany, Muhammad S A

    2016-01-01

    Sensorineural hearing loss occurs due to damage to the inner and outer hair cells of the peripheral auditory system. Hearing loss can cause decreases in audibility, dynamic range, frequency and temporal resolution of the auditory system, and all of these effects are known to affect speech intelligibility. In this study, a new reference-free speech intelligibility metric is proposed using 2-D neurograms constructed from the output of a computational model of the auditory periphery. The responses of the auditory-nerve fibers with a wide range of characteristic frequencies were simulated to construct neurograms. The features of the neurograms were extracted using third-order statistics referred to as bispectrum. The phase coupling of neurogram bispectrum provides a unique insight for the presence (or deficit) of supra-threshold nonlinearities beyond audibility for listeners with normal hearing (or hearing loss). The speech intelligibility scores predicted by the proposed method were compared to the behavioral scores for listeners with normal hearing and hearing loss both in quiet and under noisy background conditions. The results were also compared to the performance of some existing methods. The predicted results showed a good fit with a small error suggesting that the subjective scores can be estimated reliably using the proposed neural-response-based metric. The proposed metric also had a wide dynamic range, and the predicted scores were well-separated as a function of hearing loss. The proposed metric successfully captures the effects of hearing loss and supra-threshold nonlinearities on speech intelligibility. This metric could be applied to evaluate the performance of various speech-processing algorithms designed for hearing aids and cochlear implants.

  10. Development of integrated scenarios to assess future conditions of aquatic ecosystems under water scarcity in the Mediterranean - perspectives from the GLOBAQUA project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huber-Garcia, Verena; Akinsete, Ebun; Gampe, David; Ker Rault, Philippe; Kok, Kasper; Koundouri, Phoebe; Luttik, Joke; Nikulin, Grigory; Pistocchi, Alberto; Souliotis, Ioannis; Ludwig, Ralf

    2017-04-01

    systems experience this and a worsening of the situation can be expected if actions are not taken. To assess future conditions, spatially distributed, integrated scenarios to drive various impact models are inevitable. These simulations then assess future conditions of aquatic ecosystems, both in water quality and quantity, and in the end provide decision support. To achieve this goal, a modeling framework is set up to develop integrated scenarios of changes in climate, land use and water management. These scenarios are based on storylines around various Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs), as established the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and developed in collaboration with project partners and experts. Major challenges stem from the downscaling of these to the regional scale. Projections of future climate conditions originate from the simulations provided through the EURO-CORDEX project. An ensemble of different General Circulation Models (GCMs) driving various Regional Climate Models (RCMs) is available. After a thorough investigation of these projections and an estimation of the uncertainty envelope, a small subset of models was chosen in a carefully conducted selection procedure, following a cluster analysis. These selected simulations were downscaled to better represent the regional conditions and provide the implications of the RCPs in the storylines. The impacts of the SSPs are represented in spatially distributed land use maps developed through the land use change model iCLUE (Conversion of Land Use and its Effects). In a first step knowledge on past land use change is required and an analysis was carried out based on the CORINE land cover data. Extensive expert surveys have been conducted in the case study areas to determine the most important drivers of these changes, considering both, biophysical and socio-economic variables. The results of these were implemented in iCLUE taking into account

  11. Sexual Problems in Cardiac Patients How to Assess, When to Refer

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jaarsma, Tiny; Steinke, Elaine E.; Gianotten, Woet L.

    2010-01-01

    It is increasingly realized that discussing sexuality is an important issue in the holistic care for cardiac patients. In this review article, the conditions of a good assessment of sexual problems are identified such as creating an appropriate environment, ensuring confidentiality, and using

  12. Factorial Validity of the Reynolds Intellectual Assessment Scales for Referred Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beaujean, A. Alexander; McGlaughlin, Sean M.; Margulies, Allison S.

    2009-01-01

    The Reynolds Intellectual Assessment Scales (RIAS) is a recently developed, individually administered psychometric instrument designed to measure general cognitive ability, as well as verbal (crystallized) intelligence, nonverbal (fluid) intelligence, and memory. Test reviewers have recommended the use of the RIAS despite the fact that, although…

  13. Assessment of reference gene stability influenced by extremely divergent disease symptoms in Solanum lycopersicum L.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wieczorek, Przemysław; Wrzesińska, Barbara; Obrępalska-Stęplowska, Aleksandra

    2013-12-01

    Tomato (Solanum lycopersicum L.) is one of the most important vegetables of great worldwide economic value. The scientific importance of the vegetable results from the fact that the genome of S. lycopersicum has been sequenced. This allows researchers to study fundamental mechanisms playing an essential role during tomato development and response to environmental factors contributing significantly to cell metabolism alterations. Parallel with the development of contemporary genetics and the constant increase in sequencing data, progress has to be aligned with improvement of experimental methods used for studying genes functions and gene expression levels, of which the quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) is still the most reliable. As well as with other nucleic acid-based methods used for comparison of the abundance of specific RNAs, the RT-qPCR data have to be normalised to the levels of RNAs represented stably in a cell. To achieve the goal, the so-called housekeeping genes (i.e., RNAs encoding, for instance, proteins playing an important role in the cell metabolism or structure maintenance), are used for normalisation of the target gene expression data. However, a number of studies have indicated the transcriptional instability of commonly used reference genes analysed in different situations or conditions; for instance, the origin of cells, tissue types, or environmental or other experimental conditions. The expression of ten common housekeeping genes of S. lycopersicum, namely EF1α, TUB, CAC, EXP, RPL8, GAPDH, TBP, ACT, SAND and 18S rRNA were examined during viral infections of tomato. Changes in the expression levels of the genes were estimated by comparison of the non-inoculated tomato plants with those infected with commonly known tomato viral pathogens, Tomato torrado virus, Cucumber mosaic virus, Tobacco mosaic virus and Pepino mosaic virus, inducing a diverse range of disease symptoms on the common host, ranging from mild leaves chlorosis to

  14. Integrated Hydrological Model-Based Assessment of Stormwater Management Scenarios in Copenhagen’s First Climate Resilient Neighbourhood Using the Three Point Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sara Maria Lerer

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The city of Copenhagen currently pursues a very ambitious plan to make the city ‘cloudburst proof’ within the next 30 years. The cloudburst management plan has the potential to support the city’s aim to become more green, liveable, and sustainable. In this study, we assessed stormwater system designs using the Three Point Approach (3PA as a framework, where an indicator value for each domain was calculated using state-of-the-art modelling techniques. We demonstrated the methodology on scenarios representing sequential enhancements of the cloudburst management plan for a district that has been appointed to become the first climate resilient neighbourhood in Copenhagen. The results show that if the cloudburst system is exploited to discharge runoff from selected areas that are disconnected from the combined sewer system, then the plan leads to multiple benefits. These include improved flood protection under a 100-years storm (i.e., compliance with the new demands in domain C of the 3PA, reduced surcharge to terrain under a 10-years storm (i.e., compliance with the service goal in domain B of the 3PA and an improved yearly water balance (i.e., better performance in domain A of the 3PA.

  15. Sport concussion assessment tool-Third edition normative reference values for professional Rugby Union players.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuller, G W; Govind, O; Tucker, R; Raftery, M

    2017-08-02

    To establish normative reference data for the SCAT3 in professional Rugby Union players. A cross sectional study in professional Rugby Union players competing in national and international professional competitions between 2015 and 2016. The SCAT3 was administered pre-season or prior to tournaments. Data was collected electronically using a custom tablet application. SCAT3 subcomponents distributions were described and normative ranges determined using percentile cut-offs for average, unusually low/high, and extremely low/high scores. The association between player characteristics and performance in SCAT3 subcomponents was also investigated in exploratory analyses. A total of 3611 professional Rugby Union players were included. The most common baseline symptom was fatigue (14%). The symptom score median (md) was 0 (interquartile range (IQR)=0-1). Symptom severity md was 0 (IQR=0-1). The md of the SAC score was 28 (IQR=26-29). The md of the MBESS was 2 (IQR=0-4). The Tandem gait md was 11.1s (IQR=10.0-12.7s). Upper limb coordination was normal in 98.4%. Younger age and lower educational level were associated with worse performance on delayed recall and reverse month sub-components of the SCAT3 (pvalues for the SCAT3 among professional Rugby Union players are provided. Baseline performance on concentration and delayed recall tests may be lower in younger athletes or in those with lower educational level. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  16. Orthorectification of KOMPSAT Optical Images Using Various Ground Reference Data and Accuracy Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kwangjae Lee

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Along with the appearance of high resolution satellite images, image correction using Rational Polynomial Coefficients (RPCs has become common. Location accuracy of Korea Multipurpose Satellite (KOMPSAT standard images is still not adequate, so, in order to leverage the KOMPSAT images for applications such as mapping and change detection, it is necessary to orthorectify the images. In this study, using updated RPCs, we performed orthorectification of KOMPSAT-2, KOMPSAT-3, and KOMPSAT-3A images using various data. Through this study, we discovered that the orthorectification result using precise Ground Control Points (GCPs and Digital Elevation Model (DEM is the best, but it was found that the correction results through image matching are also excellent. In particular, it was confirmed that orthoimages with a planimetric accuracy around 3 m (Root Mean Square Error (RMSE can be generated by using well-known matching algorithms with open data such as OpenStreetMap (OSM and Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM DEM, which can be acquired by anyone. Although the accuracy was low in some mountainous terrain, it was confirmed that it could be used for generating KOMPSAT orthoimages using open data. This paper describes the results for orthorectifying high resolution KOMPSAT optical images using various reference data.

  17. Assessment of National Public Health and Reference Laboratory, Accra, Ghana, within Framework of Global Health Security.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ogee-Nwankwo, Adaeze; Opare, David; Boateng, Gifty; Nyaku, Mawuli; Haynes, Lia M; Balajee, S Arunmozhi; Conklin, Laura; Icenogle, Joseph P; Rota, Paul A; Waku-Kouomou, Diane

    2017-12-01

    The Second Year of Life project of the Global Health Security Agenda aims to improve immunization systems and strengthen measles and rubella surveillance, including building laboratory capacity. A new laboratory assessment tool was developed by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to assess the national laboratory in Ghana to improve molecular surveillance for measles and rubella. Results for the tool showed that the laboratory is well organized, has a good capacity for handling specimens, has a good biosafety system, and is proficient for diagnosis of measles and rubella by serologic analysis. However, there was little knowledge about molecular biology and virology activities (i.e., virus isolation on tissue culture was not available). Recommendations included training of technical personnel for molecular techniques and advocacy for funding for laboratory equipment, reagents, and supplies.

  18. Women referred for occupational risk assessment in pregnancy have no increased risk of adverse obstetric outcomes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bidstrup, Signe Brøker; Kaerlev, Linda; Thulstrup, Ane Marie

    2015-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: Our aim was to study the association between pregnant women's referral status for occupational risk assessment, and their risk of preterm delivery (SGA). METHODS: In a cohort study, 1,202 deliveries among...... with a higher birth weight than the average employee (difference 47.8 g; 95% CI: 19.9-75.6), but the outcomes did not differ with respect to gestational age (difference 0.05 weeks; 95% CI: -0.06-0.17), preterm delivery (OR: 0.8; 95% CI: 0.62-1.04), LBW (OR: 0.81; 95% CI: 0.52-1.26) or SGA (OR: 0.92; 95% CI: 0...

  19. Long-range hazard assessment of volcanic ash dispersal for a Plinian eruptive scenario at Popocatépetl volcano (Mexico): implications for civil aviation safety

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonasia, Rosanna; Scaini, Chiara; Capra, Lucia; Nathenson, Manuel; Siebe, Claus; Arana-Salinas, Lilia; Folch, Arnau

    2014-01-01

    Popocatépetl is one of Mexico's most active volcanoes threatening a densely populated area that includes Mexico City with more than 20 million inhabitants. The destructive potential of this volcano is demonstrated by its Late Pleistocene-Holocene eruptive activity, which has been characterized by recurrent Plinian eruptions of large magnitude, the last two of which destroyed human settlements in pre-Hispanic times. Popocatépetl's reawakening in 1994 produced a crisis that culminated with the evacuation of two villages on the northeastern flank of the volcano. Shortly after, a monitoring system and a civil protection contingency plan based on a hazard zone map were implemented. The current volcanic hazards map considers the potential occurrence of different volcanic phenomena, including pyroclastic density currents and lahars. However, no quantitative assessment of the tephra hazard, especially related to atmospheric dispersal, has been performed. The presence of airborne volcanic ash at low and jet-cruise atmospheric levels compromises the safety of aircraft operations and forces re-routing of aircraft to prevent encounters with volcanic ash clouds. Given the high number of important airports in the surroundings of Popocatépetl volcano and considering the potential threat posed to civil aviation in Mexico and adjacent regions in case of a Plinian eruption, a hazard assessment for tephra dispersal is required. In this work, we present the first probabilistic tephra dispersal hazard assessment for Popocatépetl volcano. We compute probabilistic hazard maps for critical thresholds of airborne ash concentrations at different flight levels, corresponding to the situation defined in Europe during 2010, and still under discussion. Tephra dispersal mode is performed using the FALL3D numerical model. Probabilistic hazard maps are built for a Plinian eruptive scenario defined on the basis of geological field data for the "Ochre Pumice" Plinian eruption (4965 14C yr BP

  20. Long-range hazard assessment of volcanic ash dispersal for a Plinian eruptive scenario at Popocatépetl volcano (Mexico): implications for civil aviation safety

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonasia, Rosanna; Scaini, Chirara; Capra, Lucia; Nathenson, Manuel; Siebe, Claus; Arana-Salinas, Lilia; Folch, Arnau

    2013-01-01

    Popocatépetl is one of Mexico’s most active volcanoes threatening a densely populated area that includes Mexico City with more than 20 million inhabitants. The destructive potential of this volcano is demonstrated by its Late Pleistocene–Holocene eruptive activity, which has been characterized by recurrent Plinian eruptions of large magnitude, the last two of which destroyed human settlements in pre-Hispanic times. Popocatépetl’s reawakening in 1994 produced a crisis that culminated with the evacuation of two villages on the northeastern flank of the volcano. Shortly after, a monitoring system and a civil protection contingency plan based on a hazard zone map were implemented. The current volcanic hazards map considers the potential occurrence of different volcanic phenomena, including pyroclastic density currents and lahars. However, no quantitative assessment of the tephra hazard, especially related to atmospheric dispersal, has been performed. The presence of airborne volcanic ash at low and jet-cruise atmospheric levels compromises the safety of aircraft operations and forces re-routing of aircraft to prevent encounters with volcanic ash clouds. Given the high number of important airports in the surroundings of Popocatépetl volcano and considering the potential threat posed to civil aviation in Mexico and adjacent regions in case of a Plinian eruption, a hazard assessment for tephra dispersal is required. In this work, we present the first probabilistic tephra dispersal hazard assessment for Popocatépetl volcano. We compute probabilistic hazard maps for critical thresholds of airborne ash concentrations at different flight levels, corresponding to the situation defined in Europe during 2010, and still under discussion. Tephra dispersal mode is performed using the FALL3D numerical model. Probabilistic hazard maps are built for a Plinian eruptive scenario defined on the basis of geological field data for the “Ochre Pumice” Plinian eruption (4965 14C

  1. Assessment of spatiotemporal variations in the fluvial wash-load component in the 21st century with regard to GCM climate change scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mouri, Goro, E-mail: mouri@rainbow.iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp

    2015-11-15

    For stream water, in which a relationship exists between wash-load concentration and discharge, an estimate of fine-sediment delivery may be obtained from a traditional fluvial wash-load rating curve. Here, we demonstrate that the remaining wash-load material load can be estimated from a traditional empirical principle on a nationwide scale. The traditional technique was applied to stream water for the whole of Japan. Four typical GCMs were selected from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble to provide the driving fields for the following regional climate models to assess the wash-load component based on rating curves: the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC), the Meteorological Research Institute Atmospheric General Circulation Model (MRI-GCM), the Hadley Centre Global Environment Model (HadGEM) and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) climate model. The simulations consisted of an ensemble, including multiple physics configurations and different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), which was used to produce monthly datasets for the whole country of Japan. The impacts of future climate changes on fluvial wash load in Japanese stream water were based on the balance of changes in hydrological factors. The annual and seasonal variations of the fluvial wash load were assessed from the result of the ensemble analysis in consideration of the Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emission scenarios. The determined results for the amount of wash load increase range from approximately 20 to 110% in the 2040s, especially along part of the Pacific Ocean and the Sea of Japan regions. In the 2090s, the amount of wash load is projected to increase by more than 50% over the whole of Japan. The assessment indicates that seasonal variation is particularly important because the rainy and typhoon seasons, which include extreme events, are the dominant seasons. Because fluvial wash-load-component turbidity

  2. NO-REFERENCE IMAGE QUALITY ASSESSMENT FOR ZY3 IMAGERY IN URBAN AREAS USING STATISTICAL MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Zhang

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available More and more high-spatial resolution satellite images are produced with the improvement of satellite technology. However, the quality of images is not always satisfactory for application. Due to the impact of complicated atmospheric conditions and complex radiation transmission process in imaging process the images often suffer deterioration. In order to assess the quality of remote sensing images over urban areas, we proposed a general purpose image quality assessment methods based on feature extraction and machine learning. We use two types of features in multi scales. One is from the shape of histogram the other is from the natural scene statistics based on Generalized Gaussian distribution (GGD. A 20-D feature vector for each scale is extracted and is assumed to capture the RS image quality degradation characteristics. We use SVM to learn to predict image quality scores from these features. In order to do the evaluation, we construct a median scale dataset for training and testing with subjects taking part in to give the human opinions of degraded images. We use ZY3 satellite images over Wuhan area (a city in China to conduct experiments. Experimental results show the correlation of the predicted scores and the subjective perceptions.

  3. Experimental validation of the buildings energy performance (PEC assessment methods with reference to occupied spaces heating

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristian PETCU

    2010-01-01

    provided by measurements and to those provided by the monthly calculation (NP 048-2006. The deviations of 1.45% and 2.2% respectively validate the hourly calculation model, as they actually have no physical significance. The report presents a phenomenological analysis of the building transfer functions synthesized as tev (τ, function