WorldWideScience

Sample records for assessing dangerous climate

  1. Estimating live fuel status by drought indices: an approach for assessing local impact of climate change on fire danger

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pellizzaro, Grazia; Dubrovsky, Martin; Bortolu, Sara; Ventura, Andrea; Arca, Bachisio; Masia, Pierpaolo; Duce, Pierpaolo

    2014-05-01

    Mediterranean shrubs are an important component of both Mediterranean vegetation communities and understorey vegetation. They also constitute the surface fuels primarily responsible for the ignition and the spread of wildland fires in Mediterranean forests. Although fire spread and behaviour are dependent on several factors, the water content of live fuel plays an important role in determining fire occurrence and spread, especially in the Mediterranean shrubland, where live fuel is often the main component of the available fuel which catches fire. According to projections on future climate, an increase in risk of summer droughts is likely to take place in Southern Europe. More prolonged drought seasons induced by climatic changes are likely to influence general flammability characteristics of fuel, affecting load distribution in vegetation strata, floristic composition, and live and dead fuel ratio. In addition, variations in precipitation and mean temperature could directly affect fuel water status, and consequently flammability, and length of critical periods of high ignition danger for Mediterranean ecosystems. The main aim of this work was to propose a methodology for evaluating possible impacts of future climate change on moisture dynamic and length of fire danger period at local scale. Specific objectives were: i) evaluating performances of meteorological drought indices in describing seasonal pattern of live fuel moisture content (LFMC), and ii) simulating the potential impacts of future climate changes on the duration of fire danger period. Measurements of LFMC seasonal pattern of three Mediterranean shrub species were performed in North Western Sardinia (Italy) for 8 years. Seasonal patterns of LFMC were compared with the Drought Code of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index and the Keetch-Byram Drought Index. Analysis of frequency distribution and cumulative distribution curves were carried out in order to evaluate performance of codes and to identify

  2. AssessingDangerous Climate Change”: Required Reduction of Carbon Emissions to Protect Young People, Future Generations and Nature

    OpenAIRE

    Juan A Añel; Hansen, James; Kharecha, Pushker; Sato, Makiko; Masson-Delmotte, Valerie; Ackerman, Frank; Beerling, David J.; Paul J Hearty; Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove; Hsu, Shi-Ling; Parmesan, Camille; Rockstrom, Johan; Rohling, Eelco J.; Sachs, Jeffrey; Smith, Pete

    2013-01-01

    We assess climate impacts of global warming using ongoing observations and paleoclimate data. We use Earth's measured energy imbalance, paleoclimate data, and simple representations of the global carbon cycle and temperature to define emission reductions needed to stabilize climate and avoid potentially disastrous impacts on today's young people, future generations, and nature. A cumulative industrial-era limit of similar to 500 GtC fossil fuel emissions and 100 GtC storage in the biosphere a...

  3. Assessing 'Dangerous Climate Change': Required Reduction of Carbon Emissions to Protect Young People, Future Generations and Nature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, James; Kharecha, Pushker; Sato, Makiko; Masson-Demotte, Valerie; Ackerman, Frank; Beerling, David J.; Hearty, Paul J.; Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove; Hsu, Shi-Ling; Parmesan, Camille; Rockstrum, Johan; Rohling, Eelco J.; Sachs, Jeffrey; Smith, Pete; Steffen, Conrad; VanSusteren, Lise; VonShuckmann, Karina; Zachos, James C.

    2013-01-01

    We assess climate impacts of global warming using ongoing observations and paleoclimate data. We use Earth's measured energy imbalance, paleoclimate data, and simple representations of the global carbon cycle and temperature to define emission reductions needed to stabilize climate and avoid potentially disastrous impacts on today's young people, future generations, and nature. A cumulative industrial-era limit of approx.500 GtC fossil fuel emissions and 100 GtC storage in the biosphere and soil would keep climate close to the Holocene range to which humanity and other species are adapted. Cumulative emissions of approx.1000 GtC, sometimes associated with 2 C global warming, would spur "slow" feedbacks and eventual warming of 3-4 C with disastrous consequences. Rapid emissions reduction is required to restore Earth's energy balance and avoid ocean heat uptake that would practically guarantee irreversible effects. Continuation of high fossil fuel emissions, given current knowledge of the consequences, would be an act of extraordinary witting intergenerational injustice. Responsible policymaking requires a rising price on carbon emissions that would preclude emissions from most remaining coal and unconventional fossil fuels and phase down emissions from conventional fossil fuels.

  4. AssessingDangerous Climate Change”: Required Reduction of Carbon Emissions to Protect Young People, Future Generations and Nature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, James; Kharecha, Pushker; Sato, Makiko; Masson-Delmotte, Valerie; Ackerman, Frank; Beerling, David J.; Hearty, Paul J.; Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove; Hsu, Shi-Ling; Parmesan, Camille; Rockstrom, Johan; Rohling, Eelco J.; Sachs, Jeffrey; Smith, Pete; Steffen, Konrad; Van Susteren, Lise; von Schuckmann, Karina; Zachos, James C.

    2013-01-01

    We assess climate impacts of global warming using ongoing observations and paleoclimate data. We use Earth’s measured energy imbalance, paleoclimate data, and simple representations of the global carbon cycle and temperature to define emission reductions needed to stabilize climate and avoid potentially disastrous impacts on today’s young people, future generations, and nature. A cumulative industrial-era limit of ∼500 GtC fossil fuel emissions and 100 GtC storage in the biosphere and soil would keep climate close to the Holocene range to which humanity and other species are adapted. Cumulative emissions of ∼1000 GtC, sometimes associated with 2°C global warming, would spur “slow” feedbacks and eventual warming of 3–4°C with disastrous consequences. Rapid emissions reduction is required to restore Earth’s energy balance and avoid ocean heat uptake that would practically guarantee irreversible effects. Continuation of high fossil fuel emissions, given current knowledge of the consequences, would be an act of extraordinary witting intergenerational injustice. Responsible policymaking requires a rising price on carbon emissions that would preclude emissions from most remaining coal and unconventional fossil fuels and phase down emissions from conventional fossil fuels. PMID:24312568

  5. Assessing "dangerous climate change": required reduction of carbon emissions to protect young people, future generations and nature.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James Hansen

    Full Text Available We assess climate impacts of global warming using ongoing observations and paleoclimate data. We use Earth's measured energy imbalance, paleoclimate data, and simple representations of the global carbon cycle and temperature to define emission reductions needed to stabilize climate and avoid potentially disastrous impacts on today's young people, future generations, and nature. A cumulative industrial-era limit of ∼500 GtC fossil fuel emissions and 100 GtC storage in the biosphere and soil would keep climate close to the Holocene range to which humanity and other species are adapted. Cumulative emissions of ∼1000 GtC, sometimes associated with 2°C global warming, would spur "slow" feedbacks and eventual warming of 3-4°C with disastrous consequences. Rapid emissions reduction is required to restore Earth's energy balance and avoid ocean heat uptake that would practically guarantee irreversible effects. Continuation of high fossil fuel emissions, given current knowledge of the consequences, would be an act of extraordinary witting intergenerational injustice. Responsible policymaking requires a rising price on carbon emissions that would preclude emissions from most remaining coal and unconventional fossil fuels and phase down emissions from conventional fossil fuels.

  6. How Can We Avert Dangerous Climate Change?

    CERN Document Server

    Hansen, J

    2007-01-01

    Recent analyses indicate that the amount of atmospheric CO2 required to cause dangerous climate change is at most 450 ppm, and likely less than that. Reductions of non-CO2 climate forcings can provide only moderate, albeit important, adjustments to the CO2 limit. Realization of how close the planet is to "tipping points" with unacceptable consequences, especially ice sheet disintegration with sea level rise out of humanity's control, has a bright side. It implies an imperative: we must find a way to keep the CO2 amount so low that it will also avert other detrimental effects that had begun to seem inevitable, e.g., ocean acidification, loss of most alpine glaciers and thus the water supply for millions of people, and shifting of climatic zones with consequent extermination of species. Here I outline from a scientific perspective actions needed to achieve low limits on CO2 and global warming. These changes are technically feasible and have ancillary benefits. Achievement of needed changes requires overcoming t...

  7. Climate Change Represents Real, Present Danger

    OpenAIRE

    Kim, Jim Yong

    2013-01-01

    The President of the World Bank, Jim Yong Kim, pointed to the serious consequences to global economic outlook of failing to tackle the challenges of climate change. He remarked that the risks associated with climate change could threaten international peace and security. The Bank is stepping up mitigation, adaptation, and disaster risk management work.

  8. On Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference and Climate Change Risk (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mann, M. E.

    2009-12-01

    The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) commits signatory nations (which includes all major nations including the United States) to stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations at levels short of Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference (“ DAI”) with the climate. To properly define DAI, one must take into account issues that are not only scientific, but, economic, political, and ethical in nature. Defining DAI is furthermore complicated by the inter-generational and regionally-disaggregated nature of the risks associated with climate change. In this talk, I will explore the nature of anthropogenic climate change risks and the notion of DAI.

  9. Avoiding Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference with the Climate System

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Keller, K. [Department of Geosciences, Penn State, PA (United States); Hall, M. [Brookings Institution, Washington, DC (United States); Kim, Seung-Rae [Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ (United States); Bradford, D.F. [Department of Economics, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ (United States); Oppenheimer, M. [Woodrow Wilson School and Department of Geosciences, Princeton University, Robertson Hall 448, Princeton, NJ, 08544 (United States)

    2005-12-01

    The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change calls for the avoidance of 'dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system'. Among the many plausible choices, dangerous interference with the climate system may be interpreted as anthropogenic radiative forcing causing distinct and widespread climate change impacts such as a widespread demise of coral reefs or a disintegration of the West Antarctic ice sheet. The geological record and numerical models suggest that limiting global warming below critical temperature thresholds significantly reduces the likelihood of these eventualities. Here we analyze economically optimal policies that may ensure this risk-reduction. Reducing the risk of a widespread coral reef demise implies drastic reductions in greenhouse gas emissions within decades. Virtually unchecked greenhouse gas emissions to date (combined with the inertia of the coupled natural and human systems) may have already committed future societies to a widespread demise of coral reefs. Policies to reduce the risk of a West Antarctic ice sheet disintegration allow for a smoother decarbonization of the economy within a century and may well increase consumption in the long run.

  10. Beyond 'dangerous' climate change: emission scenarios for a new world.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Kevin; Bows, Alice

    2011-01-13

    The Copenhagen Accord reiterates the international community's commitment to 'hold the increase in global temperature below 2 degrees Celsius'. Yet its preferred focus on global emission peak dates and longer-term reduction targets, without recourse to cumulative emission budgets, belies seriously the scale and scope of mitigation necessary to meet such a commitment. Moreover, the pivotal importance of emissions from non-Annex 1 nations in shaping available space for Annex 1 emission pathways received, and continues to receive, little attention. Building on previous studies, this paper uses a cumulative emissions framing, broken down to Annex 1 and non-Annex 1 nations, to understand the implications of rapid emission growth in nations such as China and India, for mitigation rates elsewhere. The analysis suggests that despite high-level statements to the contrary, there is now little to no chance of maintaining the global mean surface temperature at or below 2°C. Moreover, the impacts associated with 2°C have been revised upwards, sufficiently so that 2°C now more appropriately represents the threshold between 'dangerous' and 'extremely dangerous' climate change. Ultimately, the science of climate change allied with the emission scenarios for Annex 1 and non-Annex 1 nations suggests a radically different framing of the mitigation and adaptation challenge from that accompanying many other analyses, particularly those directly informing policy. PMID:21115511

  11. Kamikazes: youth serving youth in a dangerous climate. Algeria.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gataa, R

    1995-01-01

    The Algerian Family Planning Association (FPA) launched its youth project in July 1993 in Oran. The first project of its kind in the Arab world, members call themselves Kamikazes in recognition of the hostile climate they face. The project's goal was to deal with social, cultural, and health problems. They also designed the project's logo, a cartoon booklet on the dangers of AIDS, and a T-shirt for members to wear. They based their activities in the local government-run information center. Between 15 and 25 years old, from a wide variety of social backgrounds, the young people drew up a list of common problems: drugs, alcohol, smoking, relationships with the opposite sex, abortion, contraception, sex education, AIDS, homosexuality, unemployment, the lack of clubs for young people, delinquency, lack of communication between parents and children, the repression of women, the lack of popular entertainment for young people, and the shortage of books. This project now is to be extended to Algiers and other cities. Over an 8-month period, the committee received instruction in contraception and combatting drug addition, participated in a workshop on empowerment and self esteem, and were trained in role-playing techniques. In their first 18 months of existence, the Kamikazes in Oran have succeeded in involving over 1000 of their peers. They have had particular success in reaching teenagers in secondary schools. One of the most valuable aspects of the project has been the sessions held with gynecologists and psychologists on sexual development, relationships between the sexes, and the avoidance of unwanted pregnancies, abortion, and sexually transmitted diseases. The success of the Oran Kamikaze project bodes well for the extension of the project to other parts of Algeria and indeed to some other countries of the Arab world. PMID:12319368

  12. The impact of climate change on forest fire danger rating in China's boreal forest

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YANG Guang; DI Xue-ying; GUO Qing-xi; SHU Zhan; ZENG Tao; YU Hong-zhou; WANG Chao

    2011-01-01

    The Great Xing'an Mountains boreal forests were focused on in the northeastern China.The simulated future climate scenarios of IPCC SRES A2a and B2a for both the baseline period of 1961-1990 and the future scenario periods were downscaled by the Delta Method and the Weather Generator to produce daily weather data.After the verification with local weather and fire data, the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System was used to assess the forest fire weather situation under climate change in the study region.An increasing trend of fire weather severity was found over the 21st century in the study region under the both future climate change scenarios, compared to the 1961-1990 baseline period.The annual mean/maximum fire weather index was predicted to rise continuously during 2010-2099, and by the end of the 21st century it is predicted to rise by 22%-52% across much of China's boreal forest.The significant increases were predicted in the spring from of April to June and in the summer from July to August.In the summer, the fire weather index was predicted to be higher than the current index by as much as 148% by the end of the 21st century.Under the scenarios of SRES A2a and B2a, both the chance of extremely high fire danger occurrence and the number of days of extremely high fire danger occurrence was predieted to increase in the study region.It is anticipated that the number of extremely high fire danger days would increase from 44 days in 1980s to 53-75 days by the end of the 21st century.

  13. The climate: dangerous game. Last news of the planet

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    There is no doubt, the climate is changing. But why the actions in favor of the change are so slow? In this framework the authors aims to answer the following questions: what was the weather yesterday? What is the impact of the human activities on the climate? In which world will live our children? What can we do? (A.L.B.)

  14. Assessing climate impacts

    OpenAIRE

    Wohl, Ellen E.; Roger S. Pulwarty; Zhang, Jian Yun

    2000-01-01

    Assessing climate impacts involves identifying sources and characteristics of climate variability, and mitigating potential negative impacts of that variability. Associated research focuses on climate driving mechanisms, biosphere–hydrosphere responses and mediation, and human responses. Examples of climate impacts come from 1998 flooding in the Yangtze River Basin and hurricanes in the Caribbean and Central America. Although we have limited understanding of the fu...

  15. Neuroscience in forensic psychiatry: From responsibility to dangerousness. Ethical and legal implications of using neuroscience for dangerousness assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gkotsi, Georgia Martha; Gasser, Jacques

    2016-01-01

    Neuroscientific evidence is increasingly being used in criminal trials as part of psychiatric testimony. Up to now, "neurolaw" literature remained focused on the use of neuroscience for assessments of criminal responsibility. However, in the field of forensic psychiatry, responsibility assessments are progressively being weakened, whereas dangerousness and risk assessment gain increasing importance. In this paper, we argue that the introduction of neuroscientific data by forensic experts in criminal trials will be mostly be used in the future as a means to evaluate or as an indication of an offender's dangerousness, rather than their responsibility. Judges confronted with the pressure to ensure public security may tend to interpret neuroscientific knowledge and data as an objective and reliable way of evaluating one's risk of reoffending. First, we aim to show how the current socio-legal context has reshaped the task of the forensic psychiatrist, with dangerousness assessments prevailing. In the second part, we examine from a critical point of view the promise of neuroscience to serve a better criminal justice system by offering new tools for risk assessment. Then we aim to explain why neuroscientific evidence is likely to be used as evidence of dangerousness of the defendants. On a theoretical level, the current tendency in criminal policies to focus on prognostics of dangerousness seems to be "justified" by a utilitarian approach to punishment, supposedly revealed by new neuroscientific discoveries that challenge the notions of free will and responsibility. Although often promoted as progressive and humane, we believe that this approach could lead to an instrumentalization of neuroscience in the interest of public safety and give rise to interventions which could entail ethical caveats and run counter to the interests of the offenders. The last part of this paper deals with some of these issues-the danger of stigmatization for brain damaged offenders because of

  16. Comparisons and Assessment of Forest Fire Danger Systems

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Tian Xiao-rui; Douglas J Mcrae; Den Boychuk; Jin Ji-zhong; Gao Cheng-da; Shu Li-fu; Wang Ming-yu

    2005-01-01

    The paper gives a brief description about the current main forest fire danger rating systems in the world, which include forest fire danger rating system used in Canada, USA, Australia, and other countries. It shows the composition, structure and development of the main fire danger rating systems. The limitations of those systems are also discussed. Through a comparison of the three main forest fire danger rating systems the paper describes their differences on development, fuel complex descriptions, inputs and outputs, and their applications and finds that the technologies of the Canadian forest fire danger rating system can be adopted for China to develop a national forest fire danger rating system. Two steps are needed to develop our own national forest fire danger rating system. Firstly, we apply the CFFDRS directly. Then some studies should be done to calibrate the FDRS to local weather and fuel characteristics.

  17. Forest fire danger projections in the Mediterranean using ENSEMBLES regional climate change scenarios

    OpenAIRE

    Bedia, J.; Herrera, S.; Camia, A.; Moreno, J.M.; Gutiérrez, J M

    2014-01-01

    We present future fire danger scenarios for the countries bordering the Mediterranean areas of Europe and north Africa building on a multi-model ensemble of state-of-the-art regional climate projections from the EU-funded project ENSEMBLES. Fire danger is estimated using the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) System and a related set of indices. To overcome some of the limitations of ENSEMBLES data for their application on the FWI System-recently highlighted in a previous study by Herre...

  18. Dangerous climate change and the importance of adaptation for the Arctic's Inuit population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ford, James D.

    2009-04-01

    The Arctic's climate is changing rapidly, to the extent that 'dangerous' climate change as defined by the United Nations Framework on Climate Change might already be occurring. These changes are having implications for the Arctic's Inuit population and are being exacerbated by the dependence of Inuit on biophysical resources for livelihoods and the low socio-economic-health status of many northern communities. Given the nature of current climate change and projections of a rapidly warming Arctic, climate policy assumes a particular importance for Inuit regions. This paper argues that efforts to stabilize and reduce greenhouse gas emissions are urgent if we are to avoid runaway climate change in the Arctic, but unlikely to prevent changes which will be dangerous for Inuit. In this context, a new policy discourse on climate change is required for Arctic regions—one that focuses on adaptation. The paper demonstrates that states with Inuit populations and the international community in general has obligations to assist Inuit to adapt to climate change through international human rights and climate change treaties. However, the adaptation deficit, in terms of what we know and what we need to know to facilitate successful adaptation, is particularly large in an Arctic context and limiting the ability to develop response options. Moreover, adaptation as an option of response to climate change is still marginal in policy negotiations and Inuit political actors have been slow to argue the need for adaptation assistance. A new focus on adaptation in both policy negotiations and scientific research is needed to enhance Inuit resilience and reduce vulnerability in a rapidly changing climate.

  19. Dangerous climate change and the importance of adaptation for the Arctic's Inuit population

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Arctic's climate is changing rapidly, to the extent that 'dangerous' climate change as defined by the United Nations Framework on Climate Change might already be occurring. These changes are having implications for the Arctic's Inuit population and are being exacerbated by the dependence of Inuit on biophysical resources for livelihoods and the low socio-economic-health status of many northern communities. Given the nature of current climate change and projections of a rapidly warming Arctic, climate policy assumes a particular importance for Inuit regions. This paper argues that efforts to stabilize and reduce greenhouse gas emissions are urgent if we are to avoid runaway climate change in the Arctic, but unlikely to prevent changes which will be dangerous for Inuit. In this context, a new policy discourse on climate change is required for Arctic regions-one that focuses on adaptation. The paper demonstrates that states with Inuit populations and the international community in general has obligations to assist Inuit to adapt to climate change through international human rights and climate change treaties. However, the adaptation deficit, in terms of what we know and what we need to know to facilitate successful adaptation, is particularly large in an Arctic context and limiting the ability to develop response options. Moreover, adaptation as an option of response to climate change is still marginal in policy negotiations and Inuit political actors have been slow to argue the need for adaptation assistance. A new focus on adaptation in both policy negotiations and scientific research is needed to enhance Inuit resilience and reduce vulnerability in a rapidly changing climate.

  20. The Danger Assessment: Validation of a Lethality Risk Assessment Instrument for Intimate Partner Femicide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, Jacquelyn C.; Webster, Daniel W.; Glass, Nancy

    2009-01-01

    The Danger Assessment (DA) is an instrument designed to assess the likelihood of lethality or near lethality occurring in a case of intimate partner violence. This article describes the development, psychometric validation, and suggestions for use of the DA. An 11-city study of intimate partner femicide used multivariate analysis to test the…

  1. Distributed Danger Assessment Model for the Internet of Things Based on Immunology

    OpenAIRE

    Run Chen; Jiliu Zhou; Caiming Liu

    2013-01-01

    The Internet of Things (IoT) confronts complicated and changeful security threats. It harms IoT and brings IoT potential danger. However, the research achievements of the danger assessment technology for IoT are rare. To calculate the danger value of IoT with many dispersive sense nodes, the theoretical model of distributed danger assessment for IoT is explored in this paper. The principles and mechanisms of Artificial Immune System (AIS) are introduced into the proposed model. Data packets i...

  2. The 2003 heat wave in France: dangerous climate change here and now.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poumadère, Marc; Mays, Claire; Le Mer, Sophie; Blong, Russell

    2005-12-01

    In an analysis of the French episode of heat wave in 2003, this article highlights how heat wave dangers result from the intricate association of natural and social factors. Unusually high temperatures, as well as socioeconomic vulnerability, along with social attenuation of hazards, in a general context where the anthropogenic contribution to climate change is becoming more plausible, led to an excess of 14,947 deaths in France, between August 4 and 18, 2003. The greatest increase in mortality was due to causes directly attributable to heat: dehydration, hyperthermia, heat stroke. In addition to age and gender, combinatorial factors included preexisting disease, medication, urban residence, isolation, poverty, and, probably, air pollution. Although diversely impacted or reported, many parts of Europe suffered human and other losses, such as farming and forestry through drought and fires. Summer 2003 was the hottest in Europe since 1500, very likely due in part to anthropogenic climate change. The French experience confirms research establishing that heat waves are a major mortal risk, number one among so-called natural hazards in postindustrial societies. Yet France had no policy in place, as if dangerous climate were restricted to a distant or uncertain future of climate change, or to preindustrial countries. We analyze the heat wave's profile as a strongly attenuated risk in the French context, as well as the causes and the effects of its sudden shift into amplification. Research and preparedness needs are highlighted. PMID:16506977

  3. Lithuania : Investment Climate Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    World Bank, (WB)

    2005-01-01

    The World Bank undertook an investment climate assessment in Lithuania in 2004 as part of its efforts to support member countries through in-depth analysis of major microeconomic constraints in their business environments. Lithuania has made serious efforts in recent years to improve its investment climate. This report has attempted to capture as much as possible the achievements of those efforts as well as the shortcomings that remain. The general picture in 2004 was of impressively rapid pr...

  4. Dangerous human-made interference with climate: A GISS modelE study

    CERN Document Server

    Hansen, J; Bauer, S; Baum, E; Cairns, B; Canuto, V; Chandler, M; Cheng, Y; Cohen, A; Faluvegi, G; Fleming, E; Friend, A; Genio, A D; Hall, T; Jackman, C; Jonas, J; Kelley, M; Kharecha, P; Kiang, N Y; Koch, D; Labow, G; Lacis, A; Lerner, J; Lo, K; Menon, S; Miller, R; Nazarenko, L; Novakov, T; Oinas, V; Perlwitz, J; Rind, D; Romanou, A; Ruedy, R; Russell, G; Sato, M; Schmidt, G A; Schmunk, R; Shindell, D; Stone, P; Streets, D; Sun, S; Tausnev, N; Thresher, D; Unger, N; Yao, M; Zhang, S; Perlwitz, Ja.; Perlwitz, Ju.

    2006-01-01

    We investigate the issue of "dangerous human-made interference with climate" using simulations with GISS modelE driven by measured or estimated forcings for 1880-2003 and extended to 2100 for IPCC greenhouse gas scenarios as well as the 'alternative' scenario of Hansen and Sato. Identification of 'dangerous' effects is partly subjective, but we find evidence that added global warming of more than 1 degree C above the level in 2000 has effects that may be highly disruptive. The alternative scenario, with peak added forcing ~1.5 W/m2 in 2100, keeps further global warming under 1 degree C if climate sensitivity is \\~3 degrees C or less for doubled CO2. We discuss three specific sub-global topics: Arctic climate change, tropical storm intensification, and ice sheet stability. Growth of non-CO2 forcings has slowed in recent years, but CO2 emissions are now surging well above the alternative scenario. Prompt actions to slow CO2 emissions and decrease non-CO2 forcings are needed to achieve the low forcing of the alt...

  5. Future impacts of climate change on forest fire danger in northeastern China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    TIAN Xiao-rui; SHU Li-fu; ZHAO Feng-jun; WANG Ming-yu; Douglas J. McRae

    2011-01-01

    Climate warming has a rapid and far-reaching impact on forest fire management in the boreal forests of China. Regional climate model outputs and the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) Sys- tern were used to analyze changes to fire danger and the fire season for future periods under IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B2, and the data will guide future fire management planning. We used regional climate in China (1961-1990) as our validation data, and the period (1991-2100) was modeled under SRES A2 and B2 through the weather simulated by the regional climate model system (PRECIS). Meteorological data and fire danger were interpolated to 1 km by using ANUSPLIN software. The average FWI value for future spring fire sea-sons under Scenarios A2 and B2 shows an increase over most of the region. Compared with the baseline, FWI averages of spring fire season will increase by -0.40, 0.26 and 1.32 under Scenario A2, and increase by 0.60, 1.54 and 2.56 under Scenario B2 in 2020s, 2050s and 2080s, re-spectively. FWI averages of autumn fire season also show an increase over most of the region. FWI values increase more for Scenario B2 than for Scenario A2 in the same periods, particularly during the 2050s and 2080s. Average future FWI values will increase under both scenarios for autumn fire season. The potential burned areas are expected to increase by 10% and 18% in spring for 2080s under Scenario A2 and B2, respec- tively. Fire season will be prolonged by 21 and 26 days under Scenarios A2 and B2 in 2080s respectively.

  6. Dangerous human-made interference with climate: a GISS modelE study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    We investigate the issue of 'dangerous human-made interference with climate' using simulations with GISS modelE driven by measured or estimated forcing for 1880-2003 and extended to 2100 for IPCC greenhouse gas scenarios as well as the 'alternative' scenario of Hansen and Sato (2004). Identification of 'dangerous' effects is partly subjective, but we find evidence that added global warming of more than 1 degrees C above the level in 2000 has effects that may be highly disruptive. The alternative scenario, with peak added forcing similar to 1.5 W/m2 in 2100, keeps further global warming under 1 degrees C if climate sensitivity is similar to 3 degrees C or less for doubled CO2. The alternative scenario keeps mean regional seasonal warming within 2 σ (standard deviations) of 20. century variability, but other scenarios yield regional changes of 5-10 σ, i.e. mean conditions outside the range of local experience. We conclude that a CO2 level exceeding about 450 ppm is 'dangerous', but reduction of non-CO2 forcing can provide modest relief on the CO2 constraint. We discuss three specific sub-global topics: Arctic climate change, tropical storm intensification, and ice sheet stability. We suggest that Arctic climate change has been driven as much by pollutants (O3, its precursor CH4, and soot) as by CO2, offering hope that dual efforts to reduce pollutants and slow CO2 growth could minimize Arctic change. Simulated recent ocean warming in the region of Atlantic hurricane formation is comparable to observations, suggesting that greenhouse gases (GHGs) may have contributed to a trend toward greater hurricane intensities. Increasing GHGs cause significant warming in our model in submarine regions of ice shelves and shallow methane hydrates, raising concern about the potential for accelerating sea level rise and future positive feedback from methane release. Growth of non-CO2 forcing has slowed in recent years, but CO2 emissions are now surging well above the alternative

  7. Dangerous human-made interference with climate: a GISS modelE study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Hansen

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available We investigate the issue of "dangerous human-made interference with climate" using simulations with GISS modelE driven by measured or estimated forcings for 1880–2003 and extended to 2100 for IPCC greenhouse gas scenarios as well as the "alternative" scenario of Hansen and Sato (2004. Identification of "dangerous" effects is partly subjective, but we find evidence that added global warming of more than 1°C above the level in 2000 has effects that may be highly disruptive. The alternative scenario, with peak added forcing ~1.5 W/m2 in 2100, keeps further global warming under 1°C if climate sensitivity is ~3°C or less for doubled CO2. The alternative scenario keeps mean regional seasonal warming within 2σ (standard deviations of 20th century variability, but other scenarios yield regional changes of 5–10σ, i.e. mean conditions outside the range of local experience. We conclude that a CO2 level exceeding about 450 ppm is "dangerous", but reduction of non-CO2 forcings can provide modest relief on the CO2 constraint. We discuss three specific sub-global topics: Arctic climate change, tropical storm intensification, and ice sheet stability. We suggest that Arctic climate change has been driven as much by pollutants (O3, its precursor CH4, and soot as by CO2, offering hope that dual efforts to reduce pollutants and slow CO2 growth could minimize Arctic change. Simulated recent ocean warming in the region of Atlantic hurricane formation is comparable to observations, suggesting that greenhouse gases (GHGs may have contributed to a trend toward greater hurricane intensities. Increasing GHGs cause significant warming in our model in submarine regions of ice shelves and shallow methane hydrates, raising concern about the potential for accelerating sea level rise and future positive feedback from methane release. Growth of non-CO2 forcings has slowed in recent years, but CO2 emissions are now surging well above the alternative scenario. Prompt

  8. Dangerous human-made interference with climate: a GISS modelE study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Hansen

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available We investigate the issue of "dangerous human-made interference with climate" using simulations with GISS modelE driven by measured or estimated forcings for 1880–2003 and extended to 2100 for IPCC greenhouse gas scenarios as well as the "alternative" scenario of Hansen and Sato (2004. Identification of "dangerous" effects is partly subjective, but we find evidence that added global warming of more than 1°C above the level in 2000 has effects that may be highly disruptive. The alternative scenario, with peak added forcing ~1.5 W/m2 in 2100, keeps further global warming under 1°C if climate sensitivity is ~3°C or less for doubled CO2. The alternative scenario keeps mean regional seasonal warming within 2σ (standard deviations of 20th century variability, but other scenarios yield regional changes of 5–10σ, i.e., mean conditions outside the range of local experience. We discuss three specific sub-global topics: Arctic climate change, tropical storm intensification, and ice sheet stability. We suggest that Arctic climate change has been driven as much by pollutants (O3, its precursor CH4, and soot as by CO2, offering hope that dual efforts to reduce pollutants and slow CO2 growth could minimize Arctic change. Simulated recent ocean warming in the region of Atlantic hurricane formation is comparable to observations, suggesting that greenhouse gases (GHGs may have contributed to a trend toward greater hurricane intensities. Increasing GHGs cause significant warming in our model in submarine regions of ice shelves and shallow methane hydrates, raising concern about the potential for accelerating sea level rise and future positive feedback from methane release. Growth of non-CO2 forcings has slowed in recent years, but CO2 emissions are now surging well above the alternative scenario. Prompt actions to slow CO2 emissions and decrease non-CO2

  9. Book review: the two degrees dangerous limit for climate change: public understanding and decision making by Christopher Shaw

    OpenAIRE

    Wall, Derek

    2015-01-01

    In The Two Degrees Dangerous Limit for Climate Change: Public Understanding and Decision Making, Christopher Shaw explores environmental policymaking by focusing on the public circulation of 2°C as the widely cited maximum figure by which temperatures can be allowed to rise. Derek Wall praises the book for combining natural science and social science to offer a well-researched and provocative interrogation of policy claims made about climate change.

  10. Distributed Danger Assessment Model for the Internet of Things Based on Immunology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Run Chen

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available The Internet of Things (IoT confronts complicated and changeful security threats. It harms IoT and brings IoT potential danger. However, the research achievements of the danger assessment technology for IoT are rare. To calculate the danger value of IoT with many dispersive sense nodes, the theoretical model of distributed danger assessment for IoT is explored in this paper. The principles and mechanisms of Artificial Immune System (AIS are introduced into the proposed model. Data packets in IoT are captured in each gateway and converted into antigens in the simulated immune environment. Detectors use self-learning and self-adaptation mechanisms in AIS to evolve themselves to adapt the local IoT environment and detect security threats. The mechanism of antibody density is simulated to reflect the intensity of security threats which are happening. Through the detected security threats and their intensity, the values of IoT property and security threats’ harm are combined to assess the quantitative value of danger for IoT. Theoretical analysis shows that the proposed model is significative of theory and practice.

  11. Needs Assessment of Female Street Kids: Children in Danger.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ivers, Kathryn J.; Carlson, Helena M.

    This report presents an assessment of the situation of homeless girls, paying particular attention to the issue of juvenile prostitution. A review of research on prostitutes was conducted, and common elements that seem to present themselves in these studies are identified, including sexual and/or physical abuse, runaway/throwaway status,…

  12. Climate Assessment for 2002

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waple, A. M.; Lawrimore, J. H.

    2003-04-01

    It is the thirteenth year that the Climate Assessment has been written to summarize the state of the earth's climate, and the third year that the National Climatic Data Center has taken the lead in its production. It is a cooperative effort that includes contributions from scientists around the country and the world. Neutral ENSO conditions at the beginning of 2002 gave way to a strengthening El Niño episode during late boreal summer and continuing into early winter. Weather patterns across the world began to reflect the positive ENSO conditions during the boreal autumn. Global temperatures in 2002 were 0.56°C above the long-term (1880-2001) average, which places 2002 as the second warmest year on record. Land temperatures were 0.89°C above average and ocean temperatures were 0.42°C above the 1880-2001 mean. This ranks both land and ocean as second warmest on record. The Northern Hemisphere temperature continues to average near record levels in 2002 at 0.63°C above the long-term average. The Southern Hemisphere also reflects the globally warmer conditions, with a positive anomaly of 0.47°C. Annual anomalies in excess of 1.0°C were widespread across much of Russia, Eastern Europe, Alaska, and central South America, while significantly cooler than average conditions were confined to the eastern half of Canada, southern South America and the eastern Pacific Ocean, near the coast of the United States. Although 12 tropical storms developed in the Atlantic during the boreal summer of 2002, most of them were weak and short-lived leading to a slightly below normal season in terms of overall activity, which is consistent with the developing El Nino. However, seven tropical storms made landfall on the coast of the United States, with an eighth brushing the coast of North Carolina. Hurricane Lili was the first hurricane to impact the U.S. directly in three years. Other notable aspects of the climate in 2002 include extreme drought in parts of the U.S., Canada and

  13. Dangerous chemical substances – Tools supporting occupational risk assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elżbieta Dobrzyńska

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available The assessment of risk associated with exposure to chemicals in the work environment is a task that still poses a lot of difficulties for the employers. At the same time the probability of adverse health effects faced by an employee as a result of such risks, and the related employer’s material losses should motivate employers to seek effective solutions aimed at assessing the risks and controling them to an acceptable level by the application of appropriate preventive measures. The paper presents examples of tools to assist the employer in the risk assessment associated with the presence of chemical agents in the workplace. Examples of guides, manuals, checklists and various interactive tools, developed in Poland and other European Union (EU countries, as well as in countries outside the EU and international organizations are described. These tools have been developed to meet the current requirements of the law and allow a rough estimation of chemical risk and based on these estimates take further steps to improve working conditions and safety. Med Pr 2014;65(5:683–692

  14. Thailand : Investment Climate Assessment Update

    OpenAIRE

    World Bank, (WB)

    2008-01-01

    This report provides an up-to-date assessment of the investment climate of Thailand. As the socio-economic framework in which enterprises operate including infrastructure, policies and regulations improving the investment climate is helpful for productivity and economic growth. The report is based mainly on the results of the second round of the Thailand Productivity and Investment Climate...

  15. Climate Assessment For 2001

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waple, A. M.; Lawrimore, J. H.; Lyon, B.; Halpert, M. S.; Gleason, K. L.; Menne, M. J.; Schnell, R. C.; Thiaw, W.; Wright, W. J.; Alexander, L.; Salinger, M. J.; Bell, G. D.; Higgins, R. W.; Stone, R. S.

    2002-05-01

    It is the twelfth year that the Climate Assessment has been written to summarize the state of the Earth's climate, and the second year that the National Climatic Data Center has taken the lead in its production. It is a cooperative effort that includes contributions from scientists around the country and the world. The long-running La Nina episode finally came to an end in 2001. The weak La Nina, which began in mid-1998 persisted through the first half of the year but gave way to neutral ENSO conditions for the latter half. Global temperatures in 2001 were 0.51C (0.92F) above the long-term (1880-2000) average, which places 2001 as the second warmest year on record. Land temperatures were 0.75C (1.35F) above average and ocean temperatures were 0.40C (0.72F) above the 1880-2000 mean. This ranks them as 2nd and 3rd warmest on record respectively. The Northern Hemisphere temperature continues to average near record levels in 2001 at 0.60C (1.08F) above the long-term average. The Southern Hemisphere also reflects the globally warmer conditions, with a positive anomaly of 0.43C (0.77F). Annual anomalies in excess of 1.0C (1.8F) were widespread across North America and much of Europe and the Middle East, while significantly cooler than average conditions were confined to Western Australia the Northeast and Northwest Pacific Ocean, and the far southeastern region of the Pacific, near coastal Chile. Although no hurricanes made landfall in the United States for the second consecutive year, it was nonetheless an extremely active Atlantic hurricane season, the fourth most active on record. Tropical Storm Allison became the costliest tropical storm on record when it caused around five billion US dollars worth of damage in southern and southeastern USA. The season was slow to start but quickly escalated in the last three months of the season and it was the first time in recorded history that three hurricanes have formed in the Atlantic in the month of November. Other notable

  16. Are College Students' Assessments of Threat Shaped by the Dangers of Their Childhood Environment?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sherman, Amanda K; Minich, Steven H; Langen, Tom A; Skufca, Joseph; Wilke, Andreas

    2016-07-01

    Humans internalize environmental cues of mortality risk at an early age, which influences subsequent risk perceptions and behavior. In this respect, an individual's current risk assessment may be viewed as an adaptive response to the dangers present within his or her early local environment. Here we examine the relationship between several variables indicating threat within an individual's early environment (e.g., prevalence of violent and property crimes, registered sex offenders) and their perception of crime risk within both the childhood and current adult environments. We recruited a group of 657 students who hail from diverse geographic backgrounds to provide the zip code location of their childhood residence along with subjective ratings of danger of that and their current location, which enabled us to compare their ratings of risk/danger with the federally reported crime statistics of each setting. Our results indicate that the early prevalence of registered sex offenders indeed influences an individual's risk perception in adulthood, and that these factors have a differential effect on males and females. Our findings provide support for the theory that early environmental factors signaling danger affect how individuals assess risk within their adult environment. PMID:25805844

  17. The role of sea-level rise and the Greenland ice sheet in dangerous climate change: implications for the stabilisation of climate

    OpenAIRE

    Lowe, J A; J. M. Gregory; J. Ridley; Huybrechts, Philippe; Nicholls, R J; Collins, M.

    2006-01-01

    Sea level rise is an important aspect of future climate change because, without upgraded coastal defences, it is likely to lead to significant impacts. Here we report on two aspects of sea-level rise that have implications for the avoidance of dangerous climate change and stabilisation of climate. If the Greenland ice sheet were to melt it would raise global sea levels by around 7m. We discuss the likelihood of such an event occurring in the coming centuries. We also examine the time scales a...

  18. Congress Assesses Climate Change Paleodata

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bierly, Eugene W.

    2006-08-01

    The `hockey stick' graph of surfacetemperature change overthe past millennium and implicationsfor climate change assessments wasthe subject of two hearings held by the U.S.House of Representatives Energy and CommerceSubcommittee on Oversight andInvestigations, on 19 and 27 July. These hearingsmarked only the second time that thecommittee has discussed climate issuessince George W. Bush became president.

  19. Modeling human-caused forest fire ignition for assessing forest fire danger in Austria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arndt N

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Forest fires have not been considered as a significant threat for mountain forests of the European Alpine Space so far. Climate change and its effects on nature, ecology, forest stand structure and composition, global changes according to demands of society and general trends in the provision of ecosystem services are potentially going to have a significant effect on fire ignition in the future. This makes the prediction of forest fire ignition essential for forest managers in order to establish an effective fire prevention system and to allocate fire fighting resources effectively, especially in alpine landscapes. This paper presents a modelling approach for predicting human-caused forest fire ignition by a range of socio-economic factors associated with an increasing forest fire danger in Austria. The relationship between touristic activities, infrastructure, agriculture and forestry and the spatial occurrence of forest fires have been studied over a 17-year period between 1993 and 2009 by means of logistic regression. 59 independent socio-economic variables have been analysed with different models and validated with heterogeneous subsets of forest fire records. The variables included in the final model indicate that railroad, forest road and hiking trail density together with agricultural and forestry developments may contribute significantly to fire danger. The final model explains 60.5% of the causes of the fire events in the validation set and allows a solid prediction. Maps showing the fire danger classification allow identifying the most vulnerable forest areas in Austria and are used to predict the fire danger classes on municipality level.

  20. From climate assessment to climate services

    OpenAIRE

    Visbeck, Martin

    2008-01-01

    The Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change has convinced the public that climate change is real. To tackle it, the panel needs complementary climate services that provide continuous climate information for all regions and the globe.

  1. Indoor Climate Quality Assessment -

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ansaldi, Roberta; Asadi, Ehsan; Costa, José Joaquim;

    This Guidebook gives building professionals useful support in the practical measurements and monitoring of the indoor climate in buildings. It is evident that energy consumption in a building is directly influenced by required and maintained indoor comfort level. Wireless technologies for measure...

  2. Integrated assessment of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Many researchers are working on all the separate parts of the climate problem. The objective of integrated assessment is to put the results from this work together in order to look carefully at the big picture so as to: (1) keep a proper sense of perspective about the problem, since climate change will occur in the presence of many other natural and human changes; (2) develop the understanding necessary to support informed decision making by many different key public and private actors around the world; and (3) assure that the type and mix of climate-related research that is undertaken will be as useful as possible to decisions makers in both the near and long term. This paper outlines a set of design guidelines for formulating integrated assessment programs and projects and then outlines some of the current problems and opportunities. Selected points are illustrated by drawing on results from the integrated assessment research now in progress at Carnegie Mellon University

  3. Critical infrastructures risk and vulnerability assessment in transportation of dangerous goods transportation by road and rail

    CERN Document Server

    Vamanu, Bogdan I; Katina, Polinpapilinho F

    2016-01-01

    This book addresses a key issue in today’s society: the safer transport of dangerous goods, taking into account people, the environment and economics. In particular, it offers a potential approach to identifying the issues, developing the models, providing the methods and recommending the tools to address the risks and vulnerabilities involved. We believe this can only be achieved by assessing those risks in a comprehensive, quantifiable and integrated manner. Examining both rail and road transportation, the book is divided into three sections, covering: the mature and accepted (by both academia and practitioners) methodology of risk assessment; the vulnerability assessment – a novel approach proposed as a vital complement to risk; guidance and support to build the tools that make methods and equations to yield: the Decision Support Systems. Throughout the book, the authors do not endeavor to provide THE solution. Instead, the book offers insightful food for thought for students, researchers, practitioner...

  4. Dangers of using global bioclimatic datasets for ecological niche modeling. Limitations for future climate projections

    OpenAIRE

    Bedia, Joaquín; Herrera, Sixto; Gutiérrez, José Manuel

    2013-01-01

    Global bioclimatic datasets are being widely used in ecological research to estimate the potential distribution of species using Climate Envelope Models (CEMs). These datasets are easily available and offer high resolution information for all land areas globally. However, they have not been tested rigorously in smaller regions, and their use in regional CEM studies may pose problems derived from their poor representation of local climate features. Moreover, these problems may be enhanced when...

  5. The case for deep reductions : Canada's role in preventing dangerous climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bramley, M.; Chandler, M. (ed.) [David Suzuki Foundation, Vancouver, BC (Canada)

    2005-11-01

    Canada chaired the annual session of United Nations climate change negotiations in Montreal in late 2005 at the Conference of Parties (COP)-11. This constituted the first session at which the provisions of the Kyoto Protocol required participating countries to initiate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction targets for the post-2012 period. Canada will hold the presidency of the negotiations for approximately one year, making Canada's responsibility in reducing GHG emissions a leading one. Two key questions are examined in determining what it should entail: what post-2012 GHG targets should Canada adopt and how should Canada approach the negotiations on the post-2012 international regime for GHG reductions? This paper seeks to provide answers to these questions. It presents a discussion of the need to stabilize GHG concentrations, by how much and when must emissions be reduced, post 2012 targets for Canada, and how should Canada approach the negotiations on the post 20012 international regime. The Pembina Institute and David Suzuki Foundation make a number of recommendations for the Government of Canada to consider such as calling on the Government of Canada to refrain from seeking operational rules for the post-2012 regime that threaten the environmental integrity of emissions targets. 201 refs., 3 tabs., 8 figs.

  6. Distinct neural circuits underlie assessment of a diversity of natural dangers by American crows.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cross, Donna J; Marzluff, John M; Palmquist, Ila; Minoshima, Satoshi; Shimizu, Toru; Miyaoka, Robert

    2013-08-22

    Social animals encountering natural dangers face decisions such as whether to freeze, flee or harass the threat. The American crow, Corvus brachyrhynchos, conspicuously mobs dangers. We used positron emission tomography to test the hypothesis that distinct neuronal substrates underlie the crow's consistent behavioural response to different dangers. We found that crows activated brain regions associated with attention and arousal (nucleus isthmo-opticus/locus coeruleus), and with motor response (arcopallium), as they fixed their gaze on a threat. However, despite this consistent behavioural and neural response, the sight of a person who previously captured the crow, a person holding a dead crow and a taxidermy-mounted hawk activated distinct forebrain regions (amygdala, hippocampus and portion of the caudal nidopallium, respectively). We suggest that aspects of mobbing behaviour are guided by unique neural circuits that respond to differences in mental processing-learning, memory formation and multisensory discrimination-required to appropriately nuance a risky behaviour to specific dangers. PMID:23825209

  7. A strategy for introducing modern bioenergy into developing Asia to avoid dangerous climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper explores the cost-effective strategy for introducing modern bioenergy into developing Asia through the 21st century under a 400 ppmv CO2 stabilization constraint using a global energy model that treats the bioenergy sector in detail. The major conclusions are the following. First, under the 400 ppmv CO2 stabilization constraint, it is cost-effective to use modern bioenergy largely to generate heat and replace direct coal use in developing Asia in the first half of the century, because direct heat generation from modern biomass is efficient and expected to achieve large CO2 reduction. As second-generation bioenergy conversion technologies (mainly gasification-based technologies) become mature in the second half of the century, it becomes cost-effective to introduce biomass-derived hydrogen, electricity, and Fischer-Tropsch synfuels and bioethanol produced using these technologies into developing Asia instead of modern biomass-derived heat. All biomass gasification-based conversion technologies are combined with CO2 capture and storage from 2060, which enables negative CO2 emissions and makes a substantial contribution to achieving the stringent climate stabilization target. Second, due to its small availability of biomass resources, large-scale import of biofuels and wood pellets is inevitable in developing Asia except southeastern Asia under the CO2 constraint used here. It is shown that this contributes to diversifying liquid fuel import sources and improving energy security in developing Asia. Third, sensitivity analysis shows that these findings are robust to bioenergy-related cost parameters. (author)

  8. Assessment of Application Example for a Sodium Fire Extinguishing Facility using Safety Control of Dangerous Substances Act

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sodium is under regulation of four kinds of laws including the Safety Control of Dangerous Substances Act and it is under categorized as Class 3(pyrophoric material, water-prohibiting substance). To obtain a license for a sodium experiment facility, the codes and regulations must be satisfied in the Safety Control of Dangerous Substance Act. However, there are some parts that need to be discussed in related regulations in the Safety Control of Dangerous Substance Act because there are differences with the actual features of sodium. To apply for an actual sodium facility, it is necessary to give a supplementary explanation regarding the regulations. The objective of this study is to assess the application example of a sodium experiment facility using the above mentioned laws and to propose the necessity of an amendment for conventional laws in regard to fire extinguishing systems and agents. In this work, an application example of a sodium experiment facility using the Safety Control of Dangerous Substances Act, and the necessity of amending the existing laws in regard to fire extinguishing systems including the agent used, was assessed. The safest standard was applied for cases in which the consideration of a sodium fire is not mentioned in conventional regulations. For the construction of the PGSFR (Prototype Gen-IV Sodium-cooled Fast Reactor), the described regulations in this work should be reviewed and improved carefully by the fire safety regulatory body

  9. Goal implementation perspectives of the Framework U N Convention on Climate Change in Russian Federation - Federal Objective Program on prevention of dangerous climate change and their negative consequences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Principal goals and tasks of Federal Target-oriented Program (FTP), system of program measures, its resources ensuring, mechanism for the FTP realization, supervision of execution and data on assessment of its effectiveness are expounded. Results of Russian Federation Inter-department commission activity on climate change issues are cited. Some aspects of negotiation process on Framework U N Convention o climate change are considered. (author)

  10. Assessing Climate Change Impacts: Agriculture

    OpenAIRE

    Bosello, Francesco; Zhang, Jian

    2005-01-01

    The economy-wide implications of climate change on agricultural sectors in 2050 are estimated using a static computable general equilibrium model. Peculiar to this exercise is the coupling of the economic model with a climatic model forecasting temperature increase in the relevant year and with a crop-growth model estimating climate change impact on cereal productivity. The main results of the study point out on the one hand the limited influence of climate change on world food supply and wel...

  11. Neuraminidase inhibitor resistance in influenza: assessing the danger of its generation and spread.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreas Handel

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available Neuraminidase Inhibitors (NI are currently the most effective drugs against influenza. Recent cases of NI resistance are a cause for concern. To assess the danger of NI resistance, a number of studies have reported the fraction of treated patients from which resistant strains could be isolated. Unfortunately, those results strongly depend on the details of the experimental protocol. Additionally, knowing the fraction of patients harboring resistance is not too useful by itself. Instead, we want to know how likely it is that an infected patient can generate a resistant infection in a secondary host, and how likely it is that the resistant strain subsequently spreads. While estimates for these parameters can often be obtained from epidemiological data, such data is lacking for NI resistance in influenza. Here, we use an approach that does not rely on epidemiological data. Instead, we combine data from influenza infections of human volunteers with a mathematical framework that allows estimation of the parameters that govern the initial generation and subsequent spread of resistance. We show how these parameters are influenced by changes in drug efficacy, timing of treatment, fitness of the resistant strain, and details of virus and immune system dynamics. Our study provides estimates for parameters that can be directly used in mathematical and computational models to study how NI usage might lead to the emergence and spread of resistance in the population. We find that the initial generation of resistant cases is most likely lower than the fraction of resistant cases reported. However, we also show that the results depend strongly on the details of the within-host dynamics of influenza infections, and most importantly, the role the immune system plays. Better knowledge of the quantitative dynamics of the immune response during influenza infections will be crucial to further improve the results.

  12. Climate indices for vulnerability assessments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Persson, Gunn; Baerring, Lars; Kjellstroem, Erik; Strandberg, Gustav; Rummuk ainen, Markku

    2007-08-15

    The demand is growing for practical information on climate projections and the impacts expected in different geographical regions and different sectors. It is a challenge to transform the vast amount of data produced in climate models into relevant information for climate change impact studies. Climate indices based on climate model data can be used as means to communicate climate change impact relations. In this report a vast amount of results is presented from a multitude of indices based on different regional climate scenarios. The regional climate scenarios described in this report show many similarities with previous scenarios in terms of general evolution and amplitude of future European climate change. The broad features are manifested in increases in warm and decreases in cold indices. Likewise are presented increases in wet indices in the north and dry indices in the south. Despite the extensive nature of the material presented, it does not cover the full range of possible climate change. We foresee a continued interactive process with stakeholders as well as continued efforts and updates of the results presented in the report.

  13. Comprehensive risk assessment for rail transportation of dangerous goods: a validated platform for decision support

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Currently, the most advanced and well documented risk assessments for the transportation of dangerous goods by railway take into account:(i)statistics-based loss of containment frequencies, (ii) specification of potential consequences for a given release situations using event tree methodology as an organisational tool and (iii) consequence calculation models to determine a risk figure known as CCDF (Complementary Cumulative Distribution Function). Such procedures for the risk assessment (including for example decision-making on preventive measures) may offer only a limited insight into the causes and sequences leading to an accident and do not allow for any kind of predictive analysis. The present work introduces an enhanced solution, and a related software platform, which attempts to integrate loss of containment causes and consequences with system's infrastructure and its environment. The solution features:(i)the use of a detailed Master Logical Diagram, including fault/event tree analysis to determine a loss of containment frequency based on different initiating events, scenarios and specific basic data, (ii) the characterization of a resulting source term following a release situation, and (iii) the calculation of various potential impacts on the neighbouring site. Results are wrapped into a CCDF format for each selected traffic segment. The risk-related results are integrated on a software platform, structured as a decision support system using intelligent maps and a variety of GIS (Geographical Information System) data processing procedures. The introduction of the hot spot approach, allows us to focus on the most risk-relevant areas and to use information on various railway infrastructure elements (e.g. points, tunnels), are the basis of the new models employed. The software is applicable to any railway transportation system, comprising its technical infrastructure, rolling stock, human actions, regulation and management procedures. It provides the

  14. Our climate in danger

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In this paper, the effect of the increase in the temperature of the earth's atmosphere as a consequence of the increase in the CO2 content and other trace gases has been reviewed. The results have been obtained by a number of model studies. The effect of the depletion of the ozone layer has also been considered. There is the horrific prediction that the global mean temperature of the earth will rise by about 3 deg. C and the antarctic ice will melt by the middle of the next century. As a result, the mean sea level will rise by several meters and this will make many cities and countries or part of countries vanish from the globe. As Bangladesh is a low deltaic region, it will be specially vulnerable. Model computations show that in some regions rainfall will increase whereas in other regions specially in the tropics, rainfall will decrease and desertification will increase. If this happens, mankind will be faced with a major disaster in history. Effect on the society in general and remedial measures have been discussed. (author). 14 refs, 3 figs, 6 tabs

  15. Assessment model for the transport of dangerous goods through road tunnels

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nelisse, R.M.L.; Vrouwenvelder, A.C.W.M.

    2012-01-01

    In many cases decisions have to be made with respect to the safety level that has to be maintained in tunnels. In this paper the central question is how one can decide between (a) a tunnel with limited allowance for dangerous goods and a deviation route for the prohibited goods or (b) a tunnel allow

  16. Contesting danger

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heathershaw, John; Megoran, Nick

    2011-01-01

    of danger is contested within the region. The example of urban violence in Osh, Kyrgyzstan and Jalalabad, Afghanistan in 2010 demonstrates how opportunities to mitigate conflict may have been lost due to the distortions of this discourse of danger. It concludes by raising the challenge to policy...... and subsequent considerations of the region in terms of the war on terror. It considers several examples of this discourse of danger including the popular US TV drama about presidential politics, The West Wing, the policy texts of ‘Washingtonian security analysis’ and accounts of danger, insecurity and urban...... violence in the Ferghana Valley. It is argued that popular policy and academic texts are relatively consistent across the three dimensions of endangerment. This argument is demonstrated through a discussion of how policy-making and practice is informed by this discourse of danger and of how the discourse...

  17. Zambia : An Assessment of the Investment Climate

    OpenAIRE

    World Bank

    2004-01-01

    This Zambia Investment Climate Assessment (ICA) forms part of World Bank Group global initiative to systematically analyze conditions for private investment and enterprise growth. Improving the investment climate is recognized as a key pillar of developing countries' path to promote economic growth and reduce poverty. The I C A compliments and amplifies a series of diagnostic work on this ...

  18. Assessing reservoir operations risk under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brekke, L.D.; Maurer, E.P.; Anderson, J.D.; Dettinger, M.D.; Townsley, E.S.; Harrison, A.; Pruitt, T.

    2009-01-01

    Risk-based planning offers a robust way to identify strategies that permit adaptive water resources management under climate change. This paper presents a flexible methodology for conducting climate change risk assessments involving reservoir operations. Decision makers can apply this methodology to their systems by selecting future periods and risk metrics relevant to their planning questions and by collectively evaluating system impacts relative to an ensemble of climate projection scenarios (weighted or not). This paper shows multiple applications of this methodology in a case study involving California's Central Valley Project and State Water Project systems. Multiple applications were conducted to show how choices made in conducting the risk assessment, choices known as analytical design decisions, can affect assessed risk. Specifically, risk was reanalyzed for every choice combination of two design decisions: (1) whether to assume climate change will influence flood-control constraints on water supply operations (and how), and (2) whether to weight climate change scenarios (and how). Results show that assessed risk would motivate different planning pathways depending on decision-maker attitudes toward risk (e.g., risk neutral versus risk averse). Results also show that assessed risk at a given risk attitude is sensitive to the analytical design choices listed above, with the choice of whether to adjust flood-control rules under climate change having considerably more influence than the choice on whether to weight climate scenarios. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

  19. Bioenergy and climate change mitigation: an assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Creutzig, Felix; Ravindranath, N. H.; Berndes, Göran; Bolwig, Simon; Bright, Ryan; Cherubini, Francesco; Chum, Helena; Corbera, Esteve; Delucchi, Mark; Faaij, Andre; Fargione, Joseph; Haberl, Helmut; Heath, Garvin; Lucon, Oswaldo; Plevin, Richard; Popp, Alexander; Robledo-Abad, Carmenza; Rose, Steven; Smith, Pete; Stromman, Anders; Sangwon, Suh; Masera, Omar

    2015-01-01

    Bioenergy deployment offers significant potential for climate change mitigation, but also carries considerable risks. In this review, we bring together perspectives of various communities involved in the research and regulation of bioenergy deployment in the context of climate change mitigation......: Land-use and energy experts, land-use and integrated assessment modelers, human geographers, ecosystem researchers, climate scientists and two different strands of life-cycle assessment experts. We summarize technological options, outline the state-of-the-art knowledge on various climate effects...... met, large-scale deployment (>200 EJ), together with BECCS, could help to keep global warming below 2° degrees of preindustrial levels; but such high deployment of land-intensive bioenergy feedstocks could also lead to detrimental climate effects, negatively impact ecosystems, biodiversity and...

  20. Bioenergy and climate change mitigation: an assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Creutzig, Felix; Ravindranath, N. H.; Berndes, Göran;

    2015-01-01

    met, large-scale deployment (>200 EJ), together with BECCS, could help to keep global warming below 2° degrees of preindustrial levels; but such high deployment of land-intensive bioenergy feedstocks could also lead to detrimental climate effects, negatively impact ecosystems, biodiversity and......Bioenergy deployment offers significant potential for climate change mitigation, but also carries considerable risks. In this review, we bring together perspectives of various communities involved in the research and regulation of bioenergy deployment in the context of climate change mitigation......: Land-use and energy experts, land-use and integrated assessment modelers, human geographers, ecosystem researchers, climate scientists and two different strands of life-cycle assessment experts. We summarize technological options, outline the state-of-the-art knowledge on various climate effects...

  1. IPCC. 4. climate assessment report, 2007

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The mission and challenge of the Intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC, GIEC in French) is to evaluate, synthesize and make available the sum of scientific and economic information of the complex domain of climatic change, and in addition to make the results of these works accepted by government representatives of 192 states. This document makes a brief synthesis in three parts of the 4. assessment report of the IPCC: 1 - physical scientific bases of climatic change: characteristic of the phenomenon, greenhouse gas emissions trend, already observed effects, forecasts of climate models; 2 - impacts, adaptations and vulnerabilities of climatic change: types of future impacts, impacts per sector, regional impacts, limits of ecosystems adaptation; 3 - mitigation of climatic changes: past emissions and future trends, possible mitigation actions and cost, possible political levers for emissions abatement. A last part introduces the French researchers involved in IPCC's works. (J.S.)

  2. Ice Melt, Sea Level Rise and Superstorms: Evidence from Paleoclimate Data, Climate Modeling, and Modern Observations that 2C Global Warming Could Be Dangerous

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, J.; Sato, Makiko; Hearty, Paul; Ruedy, Reto; Kelley, Maxwell; Masson-Delmotte, Valerie; Russell, Gary; Tselioudis, George; Cao, Junji; Rignot, Eric; Velicogna, Isabella; Tormey, Blair; Donovan, Bailey; Kandiano, Evgeniya; von Schuckmann, Karina; Kharecha, Pushker; Legrande, Allegra N.; Bauer, Michael; Lo, Kwok-Wai

    2016-01-01

    warmer than today. Ice melt cooling of the North Atlantic and Southern oceans increases atmospheric temperature gradients, eddy kinetic energy and baroclinicity, thus driving more powerful storms. The modeling, paleoclimate evidence, and ongoing observations together imply that 2 C global warming above the preindustrial level could be dangerous. Continued high fossil fuel emissions this century are predicted to yield (1) cooling of the Southern Ocean, especially in the Western Hemisphere; (2) slowing of the Southern Ocean overturning circulation, warming of the ice shelves, and growing ice sheet mass loss; (3) slowdown and eventual shutdown of the Atlantic overturning circulation with cooling of the North Atlantic region; (4) increasingly powerful storms; and (5) nonlinearly growing sea level rise, reaching several meters over a timescale of 50-150 years. These predictions, especially the cooling in the Southern Ocean and North Atlantic with markedly reduced warming or even cooling in Europe, differ fundamentally from existing climate change assessments. We discuss observations and modeling studies needed to refute or clarify these assertions.

  3. Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: evidence from paleoclimate data, climate modeling, and modern observations that 2 °C global warming could be dangerous

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko; Hearty, Paul; Ruedy, Reto; Kelley, Maxwell; Masson-Delmotte, Valerie; Russell, Gary; Tselioudis, George; Cao, Junji; Rignot, Eric; Velicogna, Isabella; Tormey, Blair; Donovan, Bailey; Kandiano, Evgeniya; von Schuckmann, Karina; Kharecha, Pushker; Legrande, Allegra N.; Bauer, Michael; Lo, Kwok-Wai

    2016-03-01

    C warmer than today. Ice melt cooling of the North Atlantic and Southern oceans increases atmospheric temperature gradients, eddy kinetic energy and baroclinicity, thus driving more powerful storms. The modeling, paleoclimate evidence, and ongoing observations together imply that 2 °C global warming above the preindustrial level could be dangerous. Continued high fossil fuel emissions this century are predicted to yield (1) cooling of the Southern Ocean, especially in the Western Hemisphere; (2) slowing of the Southern Ocean overturning circulation, warming of the ice shelves, and growing ice sheet mass loss; (3) slowdown and eventual shutdown of the Atlantic overturning circulation with cooling of the North Atlantic region; (4) increasingly powerful storms; and (5) nonlinearly growing sea level rise, reaching several meters over a timescale of 50-150 years. These predictions, especially the cooling in the Southern Ocean and North Atlantic with markedly reduced warming or even cooling in Europe, differ fundamentally from existing climate change assessments. We discuss observations and modeling studies needed to refute or clarify these assertions.

  4. Environmental health risk assessment and management for global climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carter, P.

    2014-12-01

    This environmental health risk assessment and management approach for atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution is based almost entirely on IPCC AR5 (2014) content, but the IPCC does not make recommendations. Large climate model uncertainties may be large environmental health risks. In accordance with environmental health risk management, we use the standard (IPCC-endorsed) formula of risk as the product of magnitude times probability, with an extremely high standard of precaution. Atmospheric GHG pollution, causing global warming, climate change and ocean acidification, is increasing as fast as ever. Time is of the essence to inform and make recommendations to governments and the public. While the 2ºC target is the only formally agreed-upon policy limit, for the most vulnerable nations, a 1.5ºC limit is being considered by the UNFCCC Secretariat. The Climate Action Network International (2014), representing civil society, recommends that the 1.5ºC limit be kept open and that emissions decline from 2015. James Hansen et al (2013) have argued that 1ºC is the danger limit. Taking into account committed global warming, its millennial duration, multiple large sources of amplifying climate feedbacks and multiple adverse impacts of global warming and climate change on crops, and population health impacts, all the IPCC AR5 scenarios carry extreme environmental health risks to large human populations and to the future of humanity as a whole. Our risk consideration finds that 2ºC carries high risks of many catastrophic impacts, that 1.5ºC carries high risks of many disastrous impacts, and that 1ºC is the danger limit. IPCC AR4 (2007) showed that emissions must be reversed by 2015 for a 2ºC warming limit. For the IPCC AR5 only the best-case scenario RCP2.6, is projected to stay under 2ºC by 2100 but the upper range is just above 2ºC. It calls for emissions to decline by 2020. We recommend that for catastrophic environmental health risk aversion, emissions decline

  5. Building a sustained climate assessment process

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Buizer, James L.; Dow, Kirstin; Black, Mary E.; Jacobs, Kathy; Waple, Anne; Moss, Richard H.; Moser, Susanne; Luers, Amy; Gustafson, David I.; Richmond, T. C.; Hays, Sharon L.; Field, Christopher B.

    2016-02-01

    The leaders and authors of the Third US National Climate Assessment (NCA3) developed new modes of engaging academia, the private sector, government agencies and civil society to support their needs for usable, rigorous, and timely information and better connect science and decision-making. A strategic vision for assessment activities into the future was built during the NCA3 process, including recommendations on how to establish a sustained assessment process that would integrate evolving scientific understanding into decision making to manage the risks of climate change over time. This vision includes a collaborative assessment process that involves partnerships across a diverse and widely distributed set of non-governmental and governmental entities. The new approach to assessments would produce timely, scientifically sound climate information products and processes, rather than focusing on the production of single quadrennial synthesis reports. If properly implemented, a sustained assessment would be more efficient and cost-effective, avoiding the painful and time-consuming process of beginning the assessment process anew every 4 years. This ongoing assessment would also encourage scientific and social innovations and explore new insights and opportunities, building the capacity to advance the development and delivery of climate information to meet societal requirements and benefit from scientific opportunities.

  6. Education in the field of dangerous materials emphasizing the assessment of a radiological threat

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The paper deals with some selected problems and requirements related to the education in areas concerning dangerous substances where special besides dosimetry and radiation protection quantities and units, special attention has also been paid to the threat which presents the potential misuse of nuclear and radioactive materials. In particular, the issues regarding the prevention against the use of these materials for terrorist attacks and procedures aimed at minimizing the impact of such malevolent act on the population and the environment have been discussed. In addition, it is given an overview of the current Czech legislation in this field as well as some of the most important international recommendations or directives/resolutions which address this field. (authors)

  7. Integrated Climate Change Impacts Assessment in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cayan, D. R.; Franco, G.; Meyer, R.; Anderson, M.; Bromirski, P. D.

    2014-12-01

    This paper summarizes lessons learned from an ongoing series of climate change assessments for California, conducted by the scientific community and State and local agencies. A series of three Assessments have considered vulnerability and adaptation issues for both managed and natural systems. California's vulnerability is many faceted, arising because of an exceptionally drought prone climate, open coast and large estuary exposure to sea level rise, sensitive ecosystems and complex human footprint and economy. Key elements of the assessments have been a common set of climate and sea-level rise scenarios, based upon IPCC GCM simulations. Regionalized and localized output from GCM projections was provided to research teams investigating water supply, agriculture, coastal resources, ecosystem services, forestry, public health, and energy demand and hydropower generation. The assessment results are helping to investigate the broad range of uncertainty that is inherent in climate projections, and users are becoming better equipped to process an envelope of potential climate and impacts. Some projections suggest that without changes in California's present fresh-water delivery system, serious water shortages would take place, but that technical solutions are possible. Under a warmer climate, wildfire vulnerability is heightened markedly in some areas--estimated increases in burned area by the end of the 21st Century exceed 100% of the historical area burned in much of the forested areas of Northern California Along California coast and estuaries, projected rise in mean sea level will accelerate flooding occurrences, prompting the need for better education and preparedness. Many policymakers and agency personnel in California are factoring in results from the assessments and recognize the need for a sustained assessment process. An ongoing challenge, of course, is to achieve more engagement with a broader community of decision makers, and notably with the private sector.

  8. A regional level multi-hazard impact assessment based on indicators of climatic and non-climatic change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lung, T.; Lavalle, C.; Hiederer, R.; Bouwer, L. M.

    2012-04-01

    Over the coming decades, Europe is expected to be confronted with major impacts due to anthropogenic climate change, with an increase in the frequency of some extreme weather events. Across the different European regions, impacts and vulnerability will vary in intensity and effect, according to changes in exposure to specific climatic stimuli and changes in non-climatic factors (sensitivity and vulnerability). To better prioritise adaptation strategies, there is a need for quantitative pan-European regional level assessments that are systematic and comparable across multiple hydro-meteorological hazards. This study presents an indicator-based impact assessment framework at NUTS-2 level that quantifies potential regional changes related to four weather-driven hazards: heat stress, river flood risk, drought proneness, and forest fire danger. This is done by comparing the current (baseline) situation with two scenarios, for the periods 2011-2040 and 2041-2070. For each hazard individually, the method integrates outcomes of a set of coherent high-resolution regional climate models from the ENSEMBLES project, based on the SRES A1B emission scenario, with current and projected non-climatic parameters such as land use and socio-economic factors, in order to quantify shifts in potential regional climate change impacts. In addition, an index of regional adaptive capacity is developed and compared with the impact indicators to identify regions of potentially high vulnerability. The results project strongest increases for heat stress, in particular in central Europe, and for forest fire danger, which not only rises considerably in the southern European regions but also shows a northwards shift. For drought proneness and flood risk the sign and magnitude of change vary across regions. An overall assessment combining all four hazards shows a clear trend towards increasing impact from climate-related natural hazards for most parts of Europe in the coming decades. The most

  9. Learning from integrated assessment of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The objective of integrated assessment of climate change is to put available knowledge together in order to evaluate what has been learned, policy implications, and research needs. This paper summarizes insights gained from five years of integrated assessment activity at Carnegie Mellon. After an introduction, Section 2 asks; who are the climate decision makers? It is concluded that they are a diffuse and often divergent group spread all over the world whose decisions are primarily driven by local non-climate considerations. Insights are illustrated with results from the ICAM-2 model. Section 3 asks: what is the climate problem? In addition to the conventional answer, it is noted that in a democracy the problem is whatever voters and their elected representatives think it is. Results from studies of public understanding are reported. Several other specific issues that define the problem, including the treatment of aerosols and alternative indices for comparing greenhouse gases are discussed. Section 4 discusses studies of climate impacts, focusing on coastal zones, the terrestrial biosphere and human health. Particular attention is placed on the roles of adaptation, value change, and technological innovation. In Section 5 selected policy issues are discussed. It is concluded by noting that equity has received too little attention in past work. It is argued that many conventional tools for policy analysis are not adequate to deal with climate problems. Values that change, and mixed levels of uncertainty, pose particularly important challenges for the future. 90 refs., 4 figs., 4 tabs

  10. Assessing the effectiveness of climate adaptation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anderson, Simon

    2011-10-15

    As governments and other agencies spend more money on adaptation to climate change they want to know that their investments are effective — that adaptation will keep development on track, that there is a fair distribution of costs and benefits, and that climate resilience is being built. But monitoring and evaluating adaptation policy and practice is not easy. Some approaches are unhelpful because they fail to integrate adaptation and development, use purely quantitative methods and do not include the perspectives of climate-vulnerable groups in their assessments. Enabling countries and organisations to effectively evaluate adaptation requires an inclusive approach built on sharing knowledge among all stakeholders — one that can capture behavioural and institutional changes and that answers to the needs of the climate-vulnerable poor.

  11. Dangers and Opportunities: A Conceptual Map of Information Literacy Assessment Approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oakleaf, Megan

    2008-01-01

    The culture of assessment in higher education requires academic librarians to demonstrate the impact of information literacy instruction on student learning. As a result, many librarians seek to gain knowledge about the information literacy assessment approaches available to them. This article identifies three major assessment approaches: (1)…

  12. Probabilistic Climate Scenario Information for Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dairaku, K.; Ueno, G.; Takayabu, I.

    2014-12-01

    Climate information and services for Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability (IAV) Assessments are of great concern. In order to develop probabilistic regional climate information that represents the uncertainty in climate scenario experiments in Japan, we compared the physics ensemble experiments using the 60km global atmospheric model of the Meteorological Research Institute (MRI-AGCM) with multi-model ensemble experiments with global atmospheric-ocean coupled models (CMIP3) of SRES A1b scenario experiments. The MRI-AGCM shows relatively good skills particularly in tropics for temperature and geopotential height. Variability in surface air temperature of physical ensemble experiments with MRI-AGCM was within the range of one standard deviation of the CMIP3 model in the Asia region. On the other hand, the variability of precipitation was relatively well represented compared with the variation of the CMIP3 models. Models which show the similar reproducibility in the present climate shows different future climate change. We couldn't find clear relationships between present climate and future climate change in temperature and precipitation. We develop a new method to produce probabilistic information of climate change scenarios by weighting model ensemble experiments based on a regression model (Krishnamurti et al., Science, 1999). The method can be easily applicable to other regions and other physical quantities, and also to downscale to finer-scale dependent on availability of observation dataset. The prototype of probabilistic information in Japan represents the quantified structural uncertainties of multi-model ensemble experiments of climate change scenarios. Acknowledgments: This study was supported by the SOUSEI Program, funded by Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, Government of Japan.

  13. Modeling human-caused forest fire ignition for assessing forest fire danger in Austria

    OpenAIRE

    Arndt N.; Vacik H; Koch V; Arpaci A; Gossow H

    2013-01-01

    Forest fires have not been considered as a significant threat for mountain forests of the European Alpine Space so far. Climate change and its effects on nature, ecology, forest stand structure and composition, global changes according to demands of society and general trends in the provision of ecosystem services are potentially going to have a significant effect on fire ignition in the future. This makes the prediction of forest fire ignition essential for forest managers in order to establ...

  14. An Assessment of Dangerous Substances in Water Framework Directive Transitional and Coastal Waters 2007-2009

    OpenAIRE

    MCGOVERN Evin; Cronin, Margot; Joyce, Eileen; McHugh, Brendan

    2011-01-01

    This report presents an assessment of hazardous substance contamination in Irish transitional and coastal waters. This was carried out in support of the EPA’s assessment of the quality status of surface waters (2007-2009) as required by the Water Framework Directive (Directive 2000/60/EC).

  15. Spent fuel transport associated with other dangerous goods in regular train units - assessment of hypothetical explosion impacts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Continental railway transport regulations (RID) do not exclude the transportation of spent fuel casks in a regular train unit that also contains wagons with other hazardous materials. In case of a train accident the release or reactions of those dangerous goods can potentially give significant accidental impacts onto the spent fuel casks. The assessment of fires from inflammable liquids and the explosion impacts from pressurized inflammable gases (like LPG) is well known from other studies which usually justified sufficient safety margins of the robust spent fuel cask designs. A new problem to be assessed is the potential impact from a detonation blast wave from explosives transported in the same train unit as a spent fuel cask. BAM is assessing this problem by developing a numeric model to calculate the effect of a dynamic external shockwave pressure onto the cask construction. The calculation results show that the integrity of a robust monolithic cask with a screwed lid closure system is preserved considering the effect of a 21 t (equivalent weight of TNT) explosives detonation in the regular transport configuration with a distance of 25 m between the centre of the explosion and the cask front

  16. Spent fuel transport associated with other dangerous goods in regular train units: assessment of hypothetical explosion impacts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Continental railway transport regulations (RID) do not exclude the transport of spent fuel casks in a regular train unit that also contains wagons with other hazardous materials. In the case of a train accident the release or reactions of those dangerous goods could potentially give significant accidental impacts on to the spent fuel casks. The assessment of fires from inflammable liquids and the explosion impacts from pressurised inflammable gases (like LPG) is well known from other studies (e.g. Droste, B., Probst, U. and Heller, W. Impact of an exploding LPG rail tank car onto a CASTOR spent fuel cask. Int. J. Radioact. Mater. Transport (RAMTRANS), 10(4), 231-240 (1999)) which have usually revealed sufficient safety margins to the robust spent fuel cask designs. A new problem to be assessed is the potential impact from a detonation blast wave from explosives transported in the same train unit as a spent fuel cask. BAM is assessing this problem by developing a numerical model to calculate the effect of the pressure of a dynamic external shockwave on the cask construction. The calculation results show that the integrity of a robust monolithic cask with a screwed lid closure system is preserved after the effect of a 21 tonne (equivalent weight of TNT) explosive detonation in the regular transport configuration with a distance of 25 m between the centre of the explosion and the front of the cask. (author)

  17. Dangerous Liaisons: Reflections on a Pilot Project for State-Mandated Outcomes Assessment of Written Communication

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denny, Harry C.

    2008-01-01

    This study details the development and results of a campus-based writing assessment plan that was mandated by a state-wide university system in order to explore the ''value-added'' from a writing program curriculum to undergraduate students' competence with written expression. Four writing samples (two timed essays and two conventional essays)…

  18. Assessment of fire seasonality, and evaluation of fire-weather relationship, and fire danger models in Italy

    OpenAIRE

    Masala, Francesco

    2013-01-01

    The main aim of this work was to improve our understanding of wildfires in the Mediterranean context through the characterization of fire regime and the assessment of the main driving forces on fire occurrence. A preliminary hierarchical cluster analysis, based on the fire occurrence and weather data in the period 1985-2008 has allowed to identify 6 areas homogeneous for fire events/regime and climate. Subsequently, three specific chapters have been developed. In the first chapter, the fir...

  19. [Dangerous animals].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hasle, Gunnar

    2002-06-30

    As travellers seek ever more exotic destinations they are more likely to encounter dangerous animals. Compared to risks such as AIDS, traffic accidents and malaria, the risk is not so great; many travellers are, however, concerned about this and those who give pre-travel vaccines and advice should know something about it. This article is mainly based on medical and zoological textbooks. Venomous stings and bites may be prevented by adequate clothing and by keeping safe distance to the animals. Listening to those who live in the area is of course important. Travellers should not carry antisera with them, but antisera should be available at local hospitals. It should be borne in mind that plant eaters cause just as many deaths as large predators. In some cases it is necessary to carry a sufficiently powerful firearm. PMID:12555616

  20. CO{sub 2} and climate: danger or hysteria?; CO{sub 2} und Klima: Gefahr oder Hysterie?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Haecker, W.D. [Bosch (R.) GmbH, Stuttgart (Germany)

    1995-12-31

    The influence of trace gases on the climatic conditions of the earth has been proved. The present contribution of CO{sub 2} to the greenhouse effect amounts to approx. 50-55 % and the contribution of fluorocarbon reaches approx. 25%. CO{sub 2} emissions caused by automobile in the street traffic contribute less than 10% to the greenhouse effect. Interdependences between the anthropogenic greenhouse effect and global climate changes are regarded as probable. The dimension of climate changes are investigated by various scientific institutes in the frame of trend calculations. The applied approaches partly differ very much from each other and put different emphasis on the interaction of the major influencing factors. Hence trend statements about the changes of the climate and the global average temperature can only be evaluated with great difficulty. On the other hand it would be rather irresponsible to accept the risk of major climatic changes and to wait until these change actually occur. Thus the corresponding industry branches still have the task to reduce CO{sub 2} emissions. Hence automobile manufacturers and purveyors must continue working on the reduction of the fuel consumption of vehicles. (orig.) [Deutsch] Der Einfluss der Spurengase auf die klimatischen Bedingungen der Erde gilt als nachgewiesen. Der Anteil des CO{sub 2} am Treibhauseffekt belaeuft sich zur Zeit auf rund 50-55%, der von FCKW auf rund 25%. - CO{sub 2}-Emissionen von Kraftfahrzeugen im Strassenverkehr sind am Treibhauseffekt mit weniger als 10% beteiligt. - Zusammenhaenge zwischen menschlich beeinflusstem Treibhauseffekt und globaler Klimaveraenderung werden als wahrscheinlich angenommen. Ihr Ausmass wird von verschiedenen wissenschaftlichen Institutionen im Rahmen von Trendrechnungen untersucht; die hierbei verwendeten Ansaetze sind zum Teil stark unterschiedlich und messen den Wechselwirkungen der wesentlichen Einflussgroessen unterschiedliche Bedeutung zu. Trendaussagen ueber die

  1. Climate Change Scientific Assessment and Policy Analysis. Scientific Assessment of Solar Induced Climate Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The programme Scientific Assessment and Policy Analysis is commissioned by the Dutch Ministry of Housing, Spatial Planning, and the Environment (VROM) and has the following objectives: Collection and evaluation of relevant scientific information for policy development and decision-making in the field of climate change; Analysis of resolutions and decisions in the framework of international climate negotiations and their implications. The programme is concerned with analyses and assessments intended for a balanced evaluation of the state of the art knowledge for underpinning policy choices. These analyses and assessment activities are carried out within several months to about a year, depending on the complexity and the urgency of the policy issue. Assessment teams organised to handle the various topics consist of the best Dutch experts in their fields. Teams work on incidental and additionally financed activities, as opposed to the regular, structurally financed activities of the climate research consortium. The work should reflect the current state of science on the relevant topic. In this report an assessment on the following topics is presented: (1) Reconstructions of solar variability, especially with respect to those parameters which are relevant for climate change; (2) Reconstructions of proxies of solar variability, e.g. cosmogenic isotopes; (3) Reconstructions of global as well as regional climate, with respect to temperature, precipitation and circulation; (4) Physical understanding of the mechanisms which play a role in the solar terrestrial link. We focus on the Holocene with emphasis on the last centuries because of data availability, to avoid confusing climate responses to orbital changes with those due to solar activity and because of the relevance for human induced climate change as compared to the role of the variable sun in the 20th century

  2. Assessing the impacts of climate change on natural resource systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Frederick, K.D.; Rosenberg, N.J. [eds.

    1994-11-30

    This volume is a collection of papers addressing the theme of potential impacts of climatic change. Papers are entitled Integrated Assessments of the Impacts of Climatic Change on Natural Resources: An Introductory Editorial; Framework for Integrated Assessments of Global Warming Impacts; Modeling Land Use and Cover as Part of Global Environmental Change; Assessing Impacts of Climatic Change on Forests: The State of Biological Modeling; Integrating Climatic Change and Forests: Economic and Ecological Assessments; Environmental Change in Grasslands: Assessment using Models; Assessing the Socio-economic Impacts of Climatic Change on Grazinglands; Modeling the Effects of Climatic Change on Water Resources- A Review; Assessing the Socioeconomic Consequences of Climate Change on Water Resources; and Conclusions, Remaining Issues, and Next Steps.

  3. Dangerous surplus

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    As a result of existing arms control reduction commitments, approximately 50 metric tons of weapon-grade plutonium is expected to become surplus in the United States--and a similar or larger amount in Russia--over the next 10 years. It is crucial that this surplus weapons plutonium be managed in a way that minimizes the danger that it will be re-used for weapons, does not lead to increased accessibility of civilian plutonium for weapons use, and meets reasonable standards for cost and human and environmental safety. The Committee on International Security and Arms Control (CISAC) of the National Academy of Sciences recently conducted an 18-month study for the U.S. government for methods of weapons plutonium management. This article summarizes the resulting report, which was released on January 24. The special security problems posed by plutonium are outlined. Three early phases of plutonium management emphasized by the report are discussed. Two candidate approaches for reducing the accessibility of weapons plutonium are described. One is to fabricate the weapons plutonium into mixed oxide fuel for reactors; the other is to mix the weapons plutonium with already reprocessed high-level radioactive waste for vitrification and long-term disposal. In either of the two approaches, the end result would be the dilution and the contamination of the weapons plutonium with a radioactive waste form. For both approaches, the ultimate destination of the plutonium would be a geologic repository

  4. Energy security and climate policy. Assessing interactions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2007-03-28

    World energy demand is surging. Oil, coal and natural gas still meet most global energy needs, creating serious implications for the environment. One result is that CO2 emissions, the principal cause of global warming, are rising. This new study underlines the close link between efforts to ensure energy security and those to mitigate climate change. Decisions on one side affect the other. To optimise the efficiency of their energy policy, OECD countries must consider energy security and climate change mitigation priorities jointly. The book presents a framework to assess interactions between energy security and climate change policies, combining qualitative and quantitative analyses. The quantitative analysis is based on the development of energy security indicators, tracking the evolution of policy concerns linked to energy resource concentration. The 'indicators' are applied to a reference scenario and CO2 policy cases for five case-study countries: The Czech Republic, France, Italy, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom. Simultaneously resolving energy security and environmental concerns is a key challenge for policy makers today. This study helps chart the course.

  5. Climate for Culture: assessing the impact of climate change on the future indoor climate in historic buildings using simulations

    OpenAIRE

    Leissner, J; Kilian, R; Kotova, Lola; Jacob, Daniela; Mikolajewicz, U; Brostrom, T; Ashley-Smith, J; Schellen, HL Henk; Martens, MHJ Marco; Schijndel, van, AWM Jos; Antretter, F.; Winkler, M.; Bertolin, C.; Camuffo, D; Simeunovic, Goran

    2015-01-01

    Background The present study reports results from the large-scale integrated EU project "Climate for Culture". The full name, or title, of the project is Climate for Culture: damage risk assessment, economic impact and mitigation strategies for sustainable preservation of cultural heritage in times of climate change. This paper focusses on implementing high resolution regional climate models together with new building simulation tools in order to predict future outdoor and indoor climate cond...

  6. Climate for Culture: assessing the impact of climate change on the future indoor climate in historic buildings using simulations

    OpenAIRE

    Leissner, J; Kilian, R; Kotova, L.; D. Jacob; Mikolajewicz, U; Broström, T; Ashley-Smith, J; Schellen, H.; Martens, M.; van Schijndel, J.; Antretter, F.; Winkler, M.; Bertolin, C.; Camuffo, D; Simeunovic, G.

    2015-01-01

    The present study reports results from the large-scale integrated EU project “Climate for Culture”. The full name, or title, of the project is Climate for Culture: damage risk assessment, economic impact and mitigation strategies for sustainable preservation of cultural heritage in times of climate change. This paper focusses on implementing high resolution regional climate models together with new building simulation tools in order to predict future outdoor and indoor climate conditions. The...

  7. A hybrid approach to incorporating climate change and variability into climate scenario for impact assessments

    OpenAIRE

    Gebretsadik, Yohannes; Strzepek, Kenneth; Schlosser, C. Adam

    2014-01-01

    Traditional 'delta-change' approach of scenario generation for climate change impact assessment to water resources strongly depends on the selected base-case observed historical climate conditions that the climate shocks are to be super-imposed. This method disregards the combined effect of climate change and the inherent hydro-climatological variability in the system. Here we demonstrated a hybrid uncertainty approach in which uncertainties in historical climate variability are combined with...

  8. An Assessment of the Investment Climate in South Africa

    OpenAIRE

    Clarke, George R. G.; Habyarimana, James; Ingram, Michael; Kaplan, David; Ramachandran, Vijaya

    2007-01-01

    The objective of the South Africa Investment Climate Assessment (ICA) is to evaluate the investment climate in South Africa in all its operational dimensions and to promote policies to strengthen the private sector. The investment climate is made up of the many location-specific factors that shape opportunities and incentives for firms to invest productively, create jobs, and expand. These...

  9. Modelling the hydrological cycle in assessments of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rind, D.; Rosenzweig, C.; Goldberg, R.

    1992-01-01

    The predictions of climate change studies depend crucially on the hydrological cycles embedded in the different models used. It is shown here that uncertainties in hydrological processes and inconsistencies in both climate and impact models limit confidence in current assessments of climate change. A future course of action to remedy this problem is suggested.

  10. Assessment of awareness regarding climate change in an urban community

    OpenAIRE

    Pandve, Harshal T; Chawla, P. S.; Kevin Fernandez; Samir A.Singru; Deepak Khismatrao; Sangita Pawar

    2011-01-01

    Background : Climate change has emerged as one of the most devastating environmental threats. It is essential to assess the awareness regarding climate change in the general population for framing the mitigation activities. Aim: To assess the awareness regarding climate change in an urban community. Settings and Design: Urban field practice area of a medical college in the Pune city. Observational study. Materials and Methods: The cross-sectional survey was conducted in the urban adult popula...

  11. 78 FR 4132 - National Climate Assessment and Development Advisory Committee

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-18

    ... National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration RIN 0648-XC433 National Climate Assessment and Development... of the National Climate Assessment and Development Advisory Committee (NCADAC) to announce the... public, commenters' identities will not be shared with the authors. When the report is released in...

  12. Case study applications of the BASINS climate assessment tool (CAT)

    Science.gov (United States)

    This EPA report will illustrate the application of different climate assessment capabilities within EPA’s BASINS modeling system for assessing a range of potential questions about the effects of climate change on streamflow and water quality in different watershed settings and us...

  13. Investment Climate Assessment : Improving Enterprise Performance and Growth in Tanzania

    OpenAIRE

    World Bank

    2004-01-01

    This Investment Climate Assessment is based on an analysis of data collected in the Investment Climate Survey of manufacturing firms in Tanzania. The survey was conducted between April and July 2003 by the World Bank and the Economic and Social Research Foundation (ESRF) in Dar es Salaam, in collaboration with the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). The assessment compares measures of fir...

  14. Assessing effects of variation in global climate data sets on spatial predictions from climate envelope models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romanach, Stephanie; Watling, James I.; Fletcher, Robert J., Jr.; Speroterra, Carolina; Bucklin, David N.; Brandt, Laura A.; Pearlstine, Leonard G.; Escribano, Yesenia; Mazzotti, Frank J.

    2014-01-01

    Climate change poses new challenges for natural resource managers. Predictive modeling of species–environment relationships using climate envelope models can enhance our understanding of climate change effects on biodiversity, assist in assessment of invasion risk by exotic organisms, and inform life-history understanding of individual species. While increasing interest has focused on the role of uncertainty in future conditions on model predictions, models also may be sensitive to the initial conditions on which they are trained. Although climate envelope models are usually trained using data on contemporary climate, we lack systematic comparisons of model performance and predictions across alternative climate data sets available for model training. Here, we seek to fill that gap by comparing variability in predictions between two contemporary climate data sets to variability in spatial predictions among three alternative projections of future climate. Overall, correlations between monthly temperature and precipitation variables were very high for both contemporary and future data. Model performance varied across algorithms, but not between two alternative contemporary climate data sets. Spatial predictions varied more among alternative general-circulation models describing future climate conditions than between contemporary climate data sets. However, we did find that climate envelope models with low Cohen's kappa scores made more discrepant spatial predictions between climate data sets for the contemporary period than did models with high Cohen's kappa scores. We suggest conservation planners evaluate multiple performance metrics and be aware of the importance of differences in initial conditions for spatial predictions from climate envelope models.

  15. Modeling and assessing international climate financing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Jing; Tang, Lichun; Mohamed, Rayman; Zhu, Qianting; Wang, Zheng

    2016-06-01

    Climate financing is a key issue in current negotiations on climate protection. This study establishes a climate financing model based on a mechanism in which donor countries set up funds for climate financing and recipient countries use the funds exclusively for carbon emission reduction. The burden-sharing principles are based on GDP, historical emissions, and consumptionbased emissions. Using this model, we develop and analyze a series of scenario simulations, including a financing program negotiated at the Cancun Climate Change Conference (2010) and several subsequent programs. Results show that sustained climate financing can help to combat global climate change. However, the Cancun Agreements are projected to result in a reduction of only 0.01°C in global warming by 2100 compared to the scenario without climate financing. Longer-term climate financing programs should be established to achieve more significant benefits. Our model and simulations also show that climate financing has economic benefits for developing countries. Developed countries will suffer a slight GDP loss in the early stages of climate financing, but the longterm economic growth and the eventual benefits of climate mitigation will compensate for this slight loss. Different burden-sharing principles have very similar effects on global temperature change and economic growth of recipient countries, but they do result in differences in GDP changes for Japan and the FSU. The GDP-based principle results in a larger share of financial burden for Japan, while the historical emissions-based principle results in a larger share of financial burden for the FSU. A larger burden share leads to a greater GDP loss.

  16. Climate and climate-related issues for the safety assessment SR-Site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The purpose of this report is to document current scientific knowledge on climate and climate-related conditions, relevant to the long-term safety of a KBS-3 repository, to a level required for an adequate treatment in the safety assessment SR-Site. The report also presents a number of dedicated studies on climate and selected climate-related processes of relevance for the assessment of long term repository safety. Based on this information, the report presents a number of possible future climate developments for Forsmark, the site selected for building a repository for spent nuclear fuel in Sweden (Figure 1-1). The presented climate developments are used as basis for the selection and analysis of SR-Site safety assessment scenarios in the SR-Site main report /SKB 2011/. The present report is based on research conducted and published by SKB as well as on research reported in the general scientific literature

  17. Climate and climate-related issues for the safety assessment SR-Site

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2010-12-15

    The purpose of this report is to document current scientific knowledge on climate and climate-related conditions, relevant to the long-term safety of a KBS-3 repository, to a level required for an adequate treatment in the safety assessment SR-Site. The report also presents a number of dedicated studies on climate and selected climate-related processes of relevance for the assessment of long term repository safety. Based on this information, the report presents a number of possible future climate developments for Forsmark, the site selected for building a repository for spent nuclear fuel in Sweden (Figure 1-1). The presented climate developments are used as basis for the selection and analysis of SR-Site safety assessment scenarios in the SR-Site main report /SKB 2011/. The present report is based on research conducted and published by SKB as well as on research reported in the general scientific literature

  18. Impact Assessment of Climate Change on Forestry Development in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    Forestry and forest ecosystem are highly sensitive to climate change.At present,studies about the responses of forests to climate change in China are more focused on physical influences of climate change.This paper firstly divided the key impact factors of climate change on forest and forestry developing into direct factors and indirect factors,and then made an assessment on climate change affecting future forestry development from the aspect of forest products and ecological services.On this basis,the adap...

  19. The development of climatic scenarios for assessing impacts of climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carter, T.; Tuomenvirta, H. [Finnish Meteorological Inst., Helsinki (Finland); Posch, M. [National Inst. of Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven (Netherlands)

    1995-12-31

    There is a growing recognition that mitigation measures for limiting future global changes in climate due to the enhanced greenhouse effect are unlikely to prevent some changes from occurring. Thus, if climate changes appear to be unavoidable, there is an increased need to evaluate their likely impacts on natural systems and human activities. Most impacts of climate change need to be examined at a regional scale, and their assessment requires up-to-date information on future regional climate changes. Unfortunately, accurate predictions of regional climate are not yet available. Instead, it is customary to construct climatic scenarios, which are plausible representations of future climate based on the best available information. This presentation outlines seven principles of climatic scenario development for impact studies, briefly describing some of the strengths and weaknesses of available methods and then illustrating one approach adopted in Finland

  20. The development of climatic scenarios for assessing impacts of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    There is a growing recognition that mitigation measures for limiting future global changes in climate due to the enhanced greenhouse effect are unlikely to prevent some changes from occurring. Thus, if climate changes appear to be unavoidable, there is an increased need to evaluate their likely impacts on natural systems and human activities. Most impacts of climate change need to be examined at a regional scale, and their assessment requires up-to-date information on future regional climate changes. Unfortunately, accurate predictions of regional climate are not yet available. Instead, it is customary to construct climatic scenarios, which are plausible representations of future climate based on the best available information. This presentation outlines seven principles of climatic scenario development for impact studies, briefly describing some of the strengths and weaknesses of available methods and then illustrating one approach adopted in Finland

  1. Climate Change in Environmental Impact Assessment of Renewable Energy Projects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Sanne Vammen

    2012-01-01

    Many renewable energy projects are subject to EIA. However a question that surfaces is what use an impact assessment is when the project is ‘good for the environment’? One of the current topics receiving much attention in impact assessment is climate change and how this factor is integrated in...... impact assessments. This warrants the question: How do we assess the climate change related impacts of a project that inherently has a positive effect on climate? This paper is based on a document study of EIA reports from Denmark. The results show that climate change is included in most of the EIA...... reports reviewed, and that only climate change mitigation is in focus while adaptation is absent. Also the results point to focus on positive impacts, while the indirect negative impacts are less apparent. This leads to a discussion of the results in the light of the purpose of EIA....

  2. Methodology for qualitative uncertainty assessment of climate impact indicators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otto, Juliane; Keup-Thiel, Elke; Rechid, Diana; Hänsler, Andreas; Pfeifer, Susanne; Roth, Ellinor; Jacob, Daniela

    2016-04-01

    The FP7 project "Climate Information Portal for Copernicus" (CLIPC) is developing an integrated platform of climate data services to provide a single point of access for authoritative scientific information on climate change and climate change impacts. In this project, the Climate Service Center Germany (GERICS) has been in charge of the development of a methodology on how to assess the uncertainties related to climate impact indicators. Existing climate data portals mainly treat the uncertainties in two ways: Either they provide generic guidance and/or express with statistical measures the quantifiable fraction of the uncertainty. However, none of the climate data portals give the users a qualitative guidance how confident they can be in the validity of the displayed data. The need for such guidance was identified in CLIPC user consultations. Therefore, we aim to provide an uncertainty assessment that provides the users with climate impact indicator-specific guidance on the degree to which they can trust the outcome. We will present an approach that provides information on the importance of different sources of uncertainties associated with a specific climate impact indicator and how these sources affect the overall 'degree of confidence' of this respective indicator. To meet users requirements in the effective communication of uncertainties, their feedback has been involved during the development process of the methodology. Assessing and visualising the quantitative component of uncertainty is part of the qualitative guidance. As visual analysis method, we apply the Climate Signal Maps (Pfeifer et al. 2015), which highlight only those areas with robust climate change signals. Here, robustness is defined as a combination of model agreement and the significance of the individual model projections. Reference Pfeifer, S., Bülow, K., Gobiet, A., Hänsler, A., Mudelsee, M., Otto, J., Rechid, D., Teichmann, C. and Jacob, D.: Robustness of Ensemble Climate Projections

  3. Urbanising Thailand: Implications for climate vulnerability assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R. Friend; C. Choosuk; K. Hutanuwatr; Y. Inmuong; J. Kittitornkool; B. Lambregts; B. Promphakping; T. Roachanakanan; P. Thiengburanathum; S. Siriwattanaphaiboon

    2016-01-01

    This report summarises a series of studies carried out by a multi-disciplinary team of Thai scholars. It focuses on the dynamics of urbanisation and climate change risks, and on the linkages between urbanisation, climate change and emerging patterns of urban poverty and vulnerability. It provides ne

  4. Assessment of awareness regarding climate change in an urban community

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Harshal T Pandve

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Background : Climate change has emerged as one of the most devastating environmental threats. It is essential to assess the awareness regarding climate change in the general population for framing the mitigation activities. Aim: To assess the awareness regarding climate change in an urban community. Settings and Design: Urban field practice area of a medical college in the Pune city. Observational study. Materials and Methods: The cross-sectional survey was conducted in the urban adult population who had given the written consent. A pre-tested questionnaire was used for a face to face interview. Responses were evaluated. Statistical Analysis Used: Proportions, percentage. Results: Total 733 respondents above 18 years of age were included in the present survey. 672 (91.68% respondents commented that global climate is changing. 547 (81.40% respondents opined that human activities are contributing to climate change. 576 (85.71% respondents commented that climate changing based on their personal experiences. Commonest source of information about climate change was television (59.78%. Poor awareness about UNFCC, Kyoto Protocol and IPCC was found. 549 (74.90% respondents commented that deforestation contribute most significantly towards climate change. As per 530 (72.31% respondents water related issues are due to changing climate change. According to 529 (72.17% respondents, direct physical hazards of extreme climatic events are most important health related impact of climate change. According to 478 (65.21% respondents, life style changes (63.3% would be most effective in tackling climate change and for preventing further climate change. Conclusion: The urban general population is aware about changing global climate. Personal efforts are more important in mitigating climate change as per the urban general population. The awareness campaigns regarding mitigation activities are recommended.

  5. Tools for Assessing the Impacts of Climate Variability and Change on Wildfire Regimes in Forests

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hety Herawati

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Fire is an intrinsic element of many forest ecosystems; it shapes their ecological processes, determines species composition and influences landscape structure. However, wildfires may: have undesirable effects on biodiversity and vegetation coverage; produce carbon emissions to the atmosphere; release smoke affecting human health; and cause loss of lives and property. There have been increasing concerns about the potential impacts of climate variability and change on forest fires. Climate change can alter factors that influence the occurrence of fire ignitions, fuel availability and fuel flammability. This review paper aims to identify tools and methods used for gathering information about the impacts of climate variability and change on forest fires, forest fuels and the probability of fires. Tools to assess the impacts of climate variability and change on forest fires include: remote sensing, dynamic global vegetation and landscape models, integrated fire-vegetation models, fire danger rating systems, empirical models and fire behavior models. This review outlines each tool in terms of its characteristics, spatial and temporal resolution, limitations and applicability of the results. To enhance and improve tool performance, each must be continuously tested in all types of forest ecosystems.

  6. Climate change vulnerability assessments in the regional context

    OpenAIRE

    Holsten, Anne

    2013-01-01

    Adapting sectors to new conditions under climate change requires an understanding of regional vulnerabilities. Conceptually, vulnerability is defined as a function of sensitivity and exposure, which determine climate impacts, and adaptive capacity of a system. Vulnerability assessments for quantifying these components have become a key tool within the climate change field. However, there is a disagreement on how to make the concept operational in studies from a scientific perspective. This co...

  7. Climate change and environmental assessments: Issues in an African perspective

    OpenAIRE

    Dalfelt, Arne; Næss, Lars Otto

    1997-01-01

    The present study discusses the potential for integrating climate change issues into environmental assessments (EAs) of development actions, with emphasis on sub-Sahara Africa. The study is motivated by the fact that future climate change could give significant adverse impacts on the natural and socio-economic environment in Africa. Yet, global change issues – including climate change – have to date largely been overlooked in the process of improving EA procedures and methodologies. The study...

  8. Climate change in safety assessment of a surface disposal facility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leterme, B.

    2012-04-01

    The Belgian Agency for Radioactive Waste and Enriched Fissile Materials (ONDRAF/NIRAS) aims to develop a surface disposal facility for LILW-SL in Dessel (North-East of Belgium). Given the time scale of interest for the safety assessment (several millennia), a number of parameters in the modelling chain near field - geosphere - biosphere may be influenced by climate change. The present study discusses how potential climate change impact was accounted for the following quantities: (i) near field infiltration through the repository earth cover, (ii) partial pressure of CO2 in the water infiltrating the cover and draining the concrete, and (iii) groundwater recharge in the vicinity of the site. For these three parameters, the impact of climate change is assessed using climatic analogue stations, i.e. stations presently under climatic conditions corresponding to a given climate state. Results indicate that : (i) Using Gijon (Spain) as representative analogue station for the next millennia, infiltration at the bottom of the soil layer towards the modules of the facility is expected to increase (from 346 to 413 mm/y) under a subtropical climate. Although no colder climate is foreseen in the next 10 000 years, the approach was also tested with analogue stations for a colder climate state. Using Sisimiut (Greenland) as representative analogue station, infiltration is expected to decrease (109 mm/y). (ii) Due to changes of the partial pressure of CO2 in the soil water, cement degradation is estimated to occur more rapidly under a warmer climate. (iii) A decrease of long-term annual average groundwater recharge by 12% was simulated using Gijon representative analogue (from 314 to 276 mm), although total rainfall was higher (947 mm) in the warmer climate compared to the current temperate climate (899 mm). For a colder climate state, groundwater recharge simulated for the representative analogue Sisimiut showed a decrease by 69% compared to current climate conditions. The

  9. Climate Change Impact Assessments for International Market Systems (CLIMARK)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winkler, J. A.; Andresen, J.; Black, J.; Bujdoso, G.; Chmielewski, F.; Kirschke, D.; Kurlus, R.; Liszewska, M.; Loveridge, S.; Niedzwiedz, T.; Nizalov, D.; Rothwell, N.; Tan, P.; Ustrnul, Z.; von Witzke, H.; Zavalloni, C.; Zhao, J.; Zhong, S.

    2012-12-01

    The vast majority of climate change impact assessments evaluate how local or regional systems and processes may be affected by a future climate. Alternative strategies that extend beyond the local or regional scale are needed when assessing the potential impacts of climate change on international market systems, including agricultural commodities. These industries have multiple production regions that are distributed worldwide and are likely to be differentially impacted by climate change. Furthermore, for many industries and market systems, especially those with long-term climate-dependent investments, temporal dynamics need to be incorporated into the assessment process, including changing patterns of international trade, consumption and production, and evolving adaptation strategies by industry stakeholder groups. A framework for conducting climate change assessments for international market systems, developed as part of the CLIMARK (Climate Change and International Markets) project is outlined, and progress toward applying the framework for an impact assessment for the international tart cherry industry is described. The tart cherry industry was selected for analysis in part because tart cherries are a perennial crop requiring long-term investments by the producer. Components of the project include the preparation of fine resolution climate scenarios, evaluation of phenological models for diverse production regions, the development of a yield model for tart cherry production, new methods for incorporating individual decision making and adaptation options into impact assessments, and modification of international trade models for use in impact studies. Innovative aspects of the project include linkages between model components and evaluation of the mega-uncertainty surrounding the assessment outcomes. Incorporation of spatial and temporal dynamics provides a more comprehensive evaluation of climate change impacts and an assessment product of potentially greater

  10. Assessing Climate Change Induced Turnover in Bird Communities Using Climatically Analogous Regions

    OpenAIRE

    Janine Sybertz; Michael Reich

    2015-01-01

    It is crucial to define and quantify possible impacts of climate change on wildlife in order to be able to pre-adapt management strategies for nature conservation. Thus, it is necessary to assess which species might be affected by climatic changes, especially at the regional scale. We present a novel approach to estimate possible climate change induced turnovers in bird communities and apply this method to Lüneburg Heath, a region in northern Germany. By comparing species pools of future clim...

  11. Assessing and managing the risks of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Some similarities and differences between the assessment and management of climate problems are presented along with ordinary environmental regulatory problems. The applicability of a familiar rule often invoked in thinking about the management of traditional environmental risks, namely, that an once of prevention is worth a pound of cure, is addressed with respect to the optimal management of climate-related risks

  12. Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Global Hydropower

    OpenAIRE

    Aanund Killingtveit; Byman Hamududu

    2012-01-01

    Currently, hydropower accounts for close to 16% of the world’s total power supply and is the world’s most dominant (86%) source of renewable electrical energy. The key resource for hydropower generation is runoff, which is dependent on precipitation. The future global climate is uncertain and thus poses some risk for the hydropower generation sector. The crucial question and challenge then is what will be the impact of climate change on global hydropower generation and what are the resulting ...

  13. Customized rating assessment of climate suitability (CRACS): climate satisfaction evaluation based on subjective perception

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Tzu-Ping; Yang, Shing-Ru; Matzarakis, Andreas

    2015-12-01

    Climate not only influences the behavior of people in urban environments but also affects people's schedules and travel plans. Therefore, providing people with appropriate long-term climate evaluation information is crucial. Therefore, we developed an innovative climate assessment system based on field investigations conducted in three cities located in Northern, Central, and Southern Taiwan. The field investigations included the questionnaire surveys and climate data collection. We first analyzed the relationship between the participants and climate parameters comprising physiologically equivalent temperature, air temperature, humidity, wind speed, solar radiation, cloud cover, and precipitation. Second, we established the neutral value, comfort range, and dissatisfied range of each parameter. Third, after verifying that the subjects' perception toward the climate parameters vary based on individual preferences, we developed the customized rating assessment of climate suitability (CRACS) approach, which featured functions such as personalized and default climate suitability information to be used by users exhibiting varying demands. Finally, we performed calculations using the climate conditions of two cities during the past 10 years to demonstrate the performance of the CRACS approach. The results can be used as a reference when planning activities in the city or when organizing future travel plans. The flexibility of the assessment system enables it to be adjusted for varying regions and usage characteristics.

  14. Customized rating assessment of climate suitability (CRACS): climate satisfaction evaluation based on subjective perception.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Tzu-Ping; Yang, Shing-Ru; Matzarakis, Andreas

    2015-12-01

    Climate not only influences the behavior of people in urban environments but also affects people's schedules and travel plans. Therefore, providing people with appropriate long-term climate evaluation information is crucial. Therefore, we developed an innovative climate assessment system based on field investigations conducted in three cities located in Northern, Central, and Southern Taiwan. The field investigations included the questionnaire surveys and climate data collection. We first analyzed the relationship between the participants and climate parameters comprising physiologically equivalent temperature, air temperature, humidity, wind speed, solar radiation, cloud cover, and precipitation. Second, we established the neutral value, comfort range, and dissatisfied range of each parameter. Third, after verifying that the subjects' perception toward the climate parameters vary based on individual preferences, we developed the customized rating assessment of climate suitability (CRACS) approach, which featured functions such as personalized and default climate suitability information to be used by users exhibiting varying demands. Finally, we performed calculations using the climate conditions of two cities during the past 10 years to demonstrate the performance of the CRACS approach. The results can be used as a reference when planning activities in the city or when organizing future travel plans. The flexibility of the assessment system enables it to be adjusted for varying regions and usage characteristics. PMID:25900004

  15. Agricultural climate impacts assessment for economic modeling and decision support

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomson, A. M.; Izaurralde, R. C.; Beach, R.; Zhang, X.; Zhao, K.; Monier, E.

    2013-12-01

    A range of approaches can be used in the application of climate change projections to agricultural impacts assessment. Climate projections can be used directly to drive crop models, which in turn can be used to provide inputs for agricultural economic or integrated assessment models. These model applications, and the transfer of information between models, must be guided by the state of the science. But the methodology must also account for the specific needs of stakeholders and the intended use of model results beyond pure scientific inquiry, including meeting the requirements of agencies responsible for designing and assessing policies, programs, and regulations. Here we present methodology and results of two climate impacts studies that applied climate model projections from CMIP3 and from the EPA Climate Impacts and Risk Analysis (CIRA) project in a crop model (EPIC - Environmental Policy Indicator Climate) in order to generate estimates of changes in crop productivity for use in an agricultural economic model for the United States (FASOM - Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model). The FASOM model is a forward-looking dynamic model of the US forest and agricultural sector used to assess market responses to changing productivity of alternative land uses. The first study, focused on climate change impacts on the UDSA crop insurance program, was designed to use available daily climate projections from the CMIP3 archive. The decision to focus on daily data for this application limited the climate model and time period selection significantly; however for the intended purpose of assessing impacts on crop insurance payments, consideration of extreme event frequency was critical for assessing periodic crop failures. In a second, coordinated impacts study designed to assess the relative difference in climate impacts under a no-mitigation policy and different future climate mitigation scenarios, the stakeholder specifically requested an assessment of a

  16. Assessing the observed impact of anthropogenic climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, Gerrit; Stone, Dáithí

    2016-05-01

    Impacts of recent regional changes in climate on natural and human systems are documented across the globe, yet studies explicitly linking these observations to anthropogenic forcing of the climate are scarce. Here we provide a systematic assessment of the role of anthropogenic climate change for the range of impacts of regional climate trends reported in the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report. We find that almost two-thirds of the impacts related to atmospheric and ocean temperature can be confidently attributed to anthropogenic forcing. In contrast, evidence connecting changes in precipitation and their respective impacts to human influence is still weak. Moreover, anthropogenic climate change has been a major influence for approximately three-quarters of the impacts observed on continental scales. Hence the effects of anthropogenic emissions can now be discerned not only globally, but also at more regional and local scales for a variety of natural and human systems.

  17. Cumulative carbon as a policy framework for achieving climate stabilization

    OpenAIRE

    Matthews, H. Damon; Solomon, Susan; Pierrehumbert, Raymond

    2012-01-01

    The primary objective of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change is to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations at a level that will avoid dangerous climate impacts. However, greenhouse gas concentration stabilization is an awkward framework within which to assess dangerous climate change on account of the significant lag between a given concentration level and the eventual equilibrium temperature change. By contrast, recent research has shown that global temperature change c...

  18. Integrated Regional Assessment of Climate Change for Korean River Basins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, H.; Franczyk, J.; Bae, D.; Jung, I.; Kwon, W.; Im, E.

    2006-12-01

    As the first national assessment, we investigated the potential impacts of climate change on water resources in the Korean peninsula that has varying climates and complex topography. Together with the precipitation runoff modeling system model, we used high resolution climate change scenarios and population and industrial growth scenarios for 2030. Climate change alone is projected to decrease mean annual runoff by 10% in four major river basins located in southern Korea. Summer floods and spring droughts are likely to occur more frequently at the sub-basin scale, suggesting the increasing vulnerability of regional water resources to climate change. When climate change scenarios are combined with population and industrial growth scenarios, the geographical variations of water stress increased. This necessitates the need for water allocation among different water users under the changing environment. A tool is being developed to address optimizing water allocation under changes in water availability for a selected basin of Korea.

  19. Assessing the likely impacts of climate change on infrastructure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Full text: In 2005, the Victorian Government contracted CSIRO, Maunsell Australia and Phillips Fox to undertake an overview assessment of the likely impacts of climate change on the State's infrastructure, establish the categories of infrastructure most at risk and outline opportunities for adaptation responses. The Government released the assessment in May 2007. Climate change poses a significant risk to infrastructure and its owners, managers and long-term operators. The work was undertaken on the basis that it should not be assumed that future climate and its impacts will simply be an extension of what has been experienced in the past. Major infrastructure items have long useful life spans (20-100 years). A bridge built today is expected to still be in use in tens, if not hundreds, of years. This means that recognition of likely climate change impacts and appropriate adaptation measures should occur now. Recognition of the risks associated with climate change is a valuable first step towards better planning of new infrastructure investments and reducing potential damage to existing infrastructure.lnfrastructure types examined were water, power, telecommunications, transport and buildings. The climate change projections used in this report are based on CSIRO climate modelling, supported by findings from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Climatic and other variables considered were temperature, rainfall, available moisture, humidity, winds, fire-weather frequency and intensity, solar radiation levels and sea-level rise. For each climate change variable identified, we described a worst-case impact for low and high climate change projections for the years 2030 and 2070. The assessment was made on the basis of 'business as usual' with no adaptation responses to climate change. The report also details the current governance structures associated with each infrastructure type. Overall, the report assessed the likely impact of climate change on

  20. IPCC. 4. climate assessment report, 2007; GIEC. 4. rapport d'evaluation du climat, 2007

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2007-07-01

    The mission and challenge of the Intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC, GIEC in French) is to evaluate, synthesize and make available the sum of scientific and economic information of the complex domain of climatic change, and in addition to make the results of these works accepted by government representatives of 192 states. This document makes a brief synthesis in three parts of the 4. assessment report of the IPCC: 1 - physical scientific bases of climatic change: characteristic of the phenomenon, greenhouse gas emissions trend, already observed effects, forecasts of climate models; 2 - impacts, adaptations and vulnerabilities of climatic change: types of future impacts, impacts per sector, regional impacts, limits of ecosystems adaptation; 3 - mitigation of climatic changes: past emissions and future trends, possible mitigation actions and cost, possible political levers for emissions abatement. A last part introduces the French researchers involved in IPCC's works. (J.S.)

  1. Uncertainty assessment tool for climate change impact indicators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otto, Juliane; Keup-Thiel, Elke; Jacob, Daniela; Rechid, Diana; Lückenkötter, Johannes; Juckes, Martin

    2015-04-01

    A major difficulty in the study of climate change impact indicators is dealing with the numerous sources of uncertainties of climate and non-climate data . Its assessment, however, is needed to communicate to users the degree of certainty of climate change impact indicators. This communication of uncertainty is an important component of the FP7 project "Climate Information Portal for Copernicus" (CLIPC). CLIPC is developing a portal to provide a central point of access for authoritative scientific information on climate change. In this project the Climate Service Center 2.0 is in charge of the development of a tool to assess the uncertainty of climate change impact indicators. The calculation of climate change impact indicators will include climate data from satellite and in-situ observations, climate models and re-analyses, and non-climate data. There is a lack of a systematic classification of uncertainties arising from the whole range of climate change impact indicators. We develop a framework that intends to clarify the potential sources of uncertainty of a given indicator and provides - if possible - solutions how to quantify the uncertainties. To structure the sources of uncertainties of climate change impact indicators, we first classify uncertainties along a 'cascade of uncertainty' (Reyer 2013). Our cascade consists of three levels which correspond to the CLIPC meta-classification of impact indicators: Tier-1 indicators are intended to give information on the climate system. Tier-2 indicators attempt to quantify the impacts of climate change on biophysical systems (i.e. flood risks). Tier-3 indicators primarily aim at providing information on the socio-economic systems affected by climate change. At each level, the potential sources of uncertainty of the input data sets and its processing will be discussed. Reference: Reyer, C. (2013): The cascade of uncertainty in modeling forest ecosystem responses to environmental change and the challenge of sustainable

  2. Assessing the Investment Climate for Rural Enterprises

    OpenAIRE

    Larson, Gunnar; Lamb, John; VanDer Meer, Cornelis

    2008-01-01

    The 2008 World Development Report identifies competition as an important variable of the rural investment climate. Competition triggers innovation and the productivity gains that drive economic growth, and with it the creation of jobs. Employment is generally the principal pathway that people have out of poverty. Fostering such competitive environments entails inducing the entry of local, ...

  3. Guatemala : Investment Climate Assessment, Volume 1

    OpenAIRE

    World Bank

    2008-01-01

    Guatemala has achieved substantial progress in improving its investment climate since 2004. Despite these achievements, Guatemala continues to face significant challenges. Guatemala's overall ease of doing business ranking is still relatively low-114th out of 178 countries, and it falls well behind the rankings of comparator countries such as El Salvador (69), Nicaragua (93), and Panama (6...

  4. Global climate change: An introduction and results from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4)

    OpenAIRE

    Seth, Anji

    2007-01-01

    This presentation gives summary of the results of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Working Group I (WG1) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4): The physical science basis for climate change. It begins with a history of the theory of global climate change, followed by the important concepts surrounding global climate change: the greenhouse effect and carbon cycle and how the climate has changed throughout the earth's history. It then discusses the IPCC's assessment reports, focusi...

  5. Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for Idaho National Laboratory

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Christopher P. Ischay; Ernest L. Fossum; Polly C. Buotte; Jeffrey A. Hicke; Alexander Peterson

    2014-10-01

    The University of Idaho (UI) was asked to participate in the development of a climate change vulnerability assessment for Idaho National Laboratory (INL). This report describes the outcome of that assessment. The climate change happening now, due in large part to human activities, is expected to continue in the future. UI and INL used a common framework for assessing vulnerability that considers exposure (future climate change), sensitivity (system or component responses to climate), impact (exposure combined with sensitivity), and adaptive capacity (capability of INL to modify operations to minimize climate change impacts) to assess vulnerability. Analyses of climate change (exposure) revealed that warming that is ongoing at INL will continue in the coming decades, with increased warming in later decades and under scenarios of greater greenhouse gas emissions. Projections of precipitation are more uncertain, with multi model means exhibiting somewhat wetter conditions and more wet days per year. Additional impacts relevant to INL include estimates of more burned area and increased evaporation and transpiration, leading to reduced soil moisture and plant growth.

  6. A Health Impact Assessment Framework for Assessing Vulnerability and Adaptation Planning for Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Helen Brown; Jeffery Spickett; Dianne Katscherian

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents a detailed description of an approach designed to investigate the application of the Health Impact Assessment (HIA) framework to assess the potential health impacts of climate change. A HIA framework has been combined with key climate change terminology and concepts. The fundamental premise of this framework is an understanding of the interactions between people, the environment and climate. The diversity and complexity of these interactions can hinder much needed action o...

  7. Climate and climate-related issues for the safety assessment SR-Can

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Naeslund, Jens-Ove (comp.)

    2006-11-15

    The purpose of this report is to document current scientific knowledge of the climate-related conditions and processes relevant to the long-term safety of a KBS-3 repository to a level required for an adequate treatment in the safety assessment SR-Can. The report also includes a concise background description of the climate system. The report includes three main chapters: A description of the climate system (Chapter 2); Identification and discussion of climate-related issues (Chapter 3); and, A description of the evolution of climate-related conditions for the safety assessment (Chapter 4). Chapter 2 includes an overview of present knowledge of the Earth climate system and the climate conditions that can be expected to occur in Sweden on a 100,000 year time perspective. Based on this, climate-related issues relevant for the long-term safety of a KBS-3 repository are identified. These are documented in Chapter 3 'Climate-related issues' to a level required for an adequate treatment in the safety assessment. Finally, in Chapter 4, 'Evolution of climate-related conditions for the safety assessment' an evolution for a 120,000 year period is presented, including discussions of identified climate-related issues of importance for repository safety. The documentation is from a scientific point of view not exhaustive, since such a treatment is neither necessary for the purposes of the safety assessment nor possible within the scope of a safety assessment. As further described in the SR-Can Main Report and in the Features Events and Processes report, the content of the present report has been audited by comparison with FEP databases compiled in other assessment projects. This report follows as far as possible the template for documentation of processes regarded as internal to the repository system. However, the term processes is not used in this report, instead the term issue has been used. Each issue includes a set of processes together resulting in the

  8. Climate and climate-related issues for the safety assessment SR-Can

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The purpose of this report is to document current scientific knowledge of the climate-related conditions and processes relevant to the long-term safety of a KBS-3 repository to a level required for an adequate treatment in the safety assessment SR-Can. The report also includes a concise background description of the climate system. The report includes three main chapters: A description of the climate system (Chapter 2); Identification and discussion of climate-related issues (Chapter 3); and, A description of the evolution of climate-related conditions for the safety assessment (Chapter 4). Chapter 2 includes an overview of present knowledge of the Earth climate system and the climate conditions that can be expected to occur in Sweden on a 100,000 year time perspective. Based on this, climate-related issues relevant for the long-term safety of a KBS-3 repository are identified. These are documented in Chapter 3 'Climate-related issues' to a level required for an adequate treatment in the safety assessment. Finally, in Chapter 4, 'Evolution of climate-related conditions for the safety assessment' an evolution for a 120,000 year period is presented, including discussions of identified climate-related issues of importance for repository safety. The documentation is from a scientific point of view not exhaustive, since such a treatment is neither necessary for the purposes of the safety assessment nor possible within the scope of a safety assessment. As further described in the SR-Can Main Report and in the Features Events and Processes report, the content of the present report has been audited by comparison with FEP databases compiled in other assessment projects. This report follows as far as possible the template for documentation of processes regarded as internal to the repository system. However, the term processes is not used in this report, instead the term issue has been used. Each issue includes a set of processes together resulting in the behaviour of a

  9. How to account for irreversibility in integrated assessment of climate change?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    How to account for irreversibility in integrated assessment of climate change? This Ph. D. thesis in Economics balances discounting, technical progress and the inertia of existing capital stock against uncertainty and the inertia of socio-economic systems to examine the issue of near term limitations of greenhouse gases emissions. After a general overview in chapter 2, and a more historical presentation of the debates in chapter 3, chapter 4 proceeds to review a large number of integrated assessment models. Chapter 5 introduces a Model on the Dynamics of Inertia and Adaptability of energy systems: DIAM, used to discuss how much previous studies might have overestimated the long term costs of CO2 limitations and underestimated adjustment costs. It shows that, given a target date for atmospheric CO2 concentration stabilisation, a higher inertia implies a lower optimal concentration trajectory. In a sequential decision framework, chapter 6 shows that current uncertainties about which CO2 concentration ceiling would not present dangerous interference with the climate system justifies precautionary action. Finally, chapter 7 uses the irreversibility effect theory to define formally situations of decision under controversy and compare the irreversibility of CO2 accumulation with the irreversibility of investments needed to moderate it. An option value for greenhouse gases emissions limitations is computed. (author)

  10. Vegetation Health and Productivity Indicators for Sustained National Climate Assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, M. O.; Running, S. W.

    2014-12-01

    The National Climate Assessment process is developing a system of physical, ecological, and societal indicators that communicate key aspects of the physical climate, climate impacts, vulnerabilities, and preparedness for the purpose of informing both decision makers and the public. Implementing a 14 year record of Gross and Net Primary Productivity (GPP/NPP) derived from the NASA EOS MODIS satellite sensor we demonstrate how these products can serve as Ecosystem Productivity and Vegetation Health National Climate Indicators for implementation in sustained National Climate Assessments. The NPP product combines MODIS vegetation data with daily global meteorology to calculate annual growth of all plant material at 1 sq. km resolution. NPP anomalies identify regions with above or below average plant growth that may result from climate fluctuations and can inform carbon source/sink dynamics, agricultural and forestry yield measures, and response to wildfire or drought conditions. The GPP product provides a high temporal resolution (8-day) metric of vegetation growth which can be used to monitor short-term vegetation response to extreme events and implemented to derive vegetation phenology metrics; growing season start, end, and length, which can elucidate land cover and regionally specific vegetation responses to a changing climate. The high spatial resolution GPP and NPP indicators can also inform and clarify responses seen from other proposed Pilot Indicators such as forest growth/productivity, land cover, crop production, and phenology. The GPP and NPP data are in continuous production and will be sustained into the future with the next generation satellite missions. The long-term Ecosystem Productivity and Vegetation Health Indicators are ideal for use in sustained National Climate Assessments, providing regionally specific responses to a changing climate and complete coverage at the national scale.

  11. Methodologies for assessing socio-economic impacts of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Much of the studies on climate change impacts have focused on physical and biological impacts, yet a knowledge of the social and economic impacts of climate change is likely to have a greater impact on the public and on policymakers. A conventional assessment of the impacts of climate change begins with scenarios of future climate, commonly derived from global climate models translated to a regional scale. Estimates of biophysical conditions provided by such scenarios provide a basis for analyses of human impacts, usually considered sector by sector. The scenario approach, although having considerable merit and appeal, has some noteworthy limitations. It encourages consideration of only a small set of scenarios, requires bold assumptions to be made about adjustments in human systems, provides little direct analysis of sensitivities of human social and economic systems to climate perturbations, and usually invokes the assumption that all factors other than climate are stable and have no synergistic effects on human systems. Conventional studies concentrate on average climate, yet climate is inherently variable. A common response to this situation is to propose further development of climate models, but this is not a sufficient or necessary condition for good and useful assessments of impacts on human activities. Different approaches to socioeconomic impact analysis are needed, and approaches should be considered that include identification of sensitivities in a social or ecological system, identification of critical threshold levels or critical speeds of change in variables, and exploration of alternative methodologies such as process studies, spatial and temporal analogues, and socio-economic systems modelling. 5 refs., 3 figs

  12. Strengthening non-state climate action: a progress assessment of commitments launched at the 2014 UN Climate Summit

    OpenAIRE

    Chan, Sander; Falkner, Robert; van Asselt, Harro; Goldberg, Matthew

    2015-01-01

    This report provides the first progress assessment of climate actions launched at the 2014 UN Climate Summit in New York. It considers the distribution and performance of climate actions along multiple dimensions that are relevant to both mitigation and adaptation. While it is too early for a conclusive assessment of the effectiveness of climate actions, this study makes a first and indispensable step toward such an assessment. Initial findings are encouraging. One year after their launch, mo...

  13. Baltic Climate Vulnerability Assessment Framework : Introduction and Guidelines

    OpenAIRE

    Hjerpe, Mattias; Wilk, Julie

    2010-01-01

    This Vulnerability Assessment Framework was put together within the project Baltic Challenges and Chances for local and regional development generated by Climate Change financed by the European Regional Development Fund and the Baltic Sea Region Programme 2007-2013. The purpose of the framework is to guide and assist the Target Areas (TA) within the project in mapping and analysing the challenges and chances created by climate change. The Vulnerability exercises have originally been developed...

  14. Climate Change Impact Assessment of Food- and Waterborne Diseases

    OpenAIRE

    Jan C. Semenza; Herbst, Susanne; Rechenburg, Andrea; Jonathan E. Suk; Höser, Christoph; Schreiber, Christiane; Kistemann, Thomas

    2011-01-01

    The PubMed and ScienceDirect bibliographic databases were searched for the period of 1998–2009 to evaluate the impact of climatic and environmental determinants on food- and waterborne diseases. The authors assessed 1,642 short and concise sentences (key facts), which were extracted from 722 relevant articles and stored in a climate change knowledge base. Key facts pertaining to temperature, precipitation, water, and food for 6 selected pathogens were scrutinized, evaluated, and compiled acco...

  15. Forest climate change Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment in Himalayas

    OpenAIRE

    Chitale, V. S.; Shrestha, H. L.; Agarwal, N. K.; Choudhurya, D.; Gilani, H.; Dhonju, H. K.; M. S. R. Murthy

    2014-01-01

    Forests offer an important basis for creating and safeguarding more climate-resilient communities over Hindu Kush Himalayan region. The forest ecosystem vulnerability assessment to climate change and developing knowledge base to identify and support relevant adaptation strategies is realized as an urgent need. The multi scale adaptation strategies portray increasing complexity with the increasing levels in terms of data requirements, vulnerability understanding and decision making to...

  16. Variation of a Lightning NOx Indicator for National Climate Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koshak, William; Vant-Hull, B.; McCaul, E. W.; Peterson, H. S.

    2014-01-01

    Lightning nitrogen oxides (LNOx) indirectly influences our climate since these molecules are important in controlling the concentration of ozone (O3) and hydroxyl radicals (OH) in the atmosphere [Huntrieser et al., 1998]. In support of the National Climate Assessment (NCA) program, satellite Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS; Christian et al. [1999]; Cecil et al. [2014]) data is used to estimate LNOx production over the southern portion of the conterminous US for the 16 year period 1998-2013.

  17. Assessing climate-sensitive ecosystems in the southeastern United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costanza, Jennifer; Beck, Scott; Pyne, Milo; Terando, Adam; Rubino, Matthew; White, Rickie; Collazo, Jaime

    2016-01-01

    Climate change impacts ecosystems in many ways, from effects on species to phenology to wildfire dynamics. Assessing the potential vulnerability of ecosystems to future changes in climate is an important first step in prioritizing and planning for conservation. Although assessments of climate change vulnerability commonly are done for species, fewer have been done for ecosystems. To aid regional conservation planning efforts, we assessed climate change vulnerability for ecosystems in the Southeastern United States and Caribbean.First, we solicited input from experts to create a list of candidate ecosystems for assessment. From that list, 12 ecosystems were selected for a vulnerability assessment that was based on a synthesis of available geographic information system (GIS) data and literature related to 3 components of vulnerability—sensitivity, exposure, and adaptive capacity. This literature and data synthesis comprised “Phase I” of the assessment. Sensitivity is the degree to which the species or processes in the ecosystem are affected by climate. Exposure is the likely future change in important climate and sea level variables. Adaptive capacity is the degree to which ecosystems can adjust to changing conditions. Where available, GIS data relevant to each of these components were used. For example, we summarized observed and projected climate, protected areas existing in 2011, projected sea-level rise, and projected urbanization across each ecosystem’s distribution. These summaries were supplemented with information in the literature, and a short narrative assessment was compiled for each ecosystem. We also summarized all information into a qualitative vulnerability rating for each ecosystem.Next, for 2 of the 12 ecosystems (East Gulf Coastal Plain Near-Coast Pine Flatwoods and Nashville Basin Limestone Glade and Woodland), the NatureServe Habitat Climate Change Vulnerability Index (HCCVI) framework was used as an alternative approach for assessing

  18. Earth's Climate Sensitivity: Apparent Inconsistencies in Recent Assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwartz, Stephen E.; Charlson, Robert J.; Kahn, Ralph; Rodhe, Henning

    2014-12-01

    Earth's equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) and forcing of Earth's climate system over the industrial era have been re-examined in two new assessments: the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and a study by Otto et al. (2013). The ranges of these quantities given in these assessments and also in the Fourth (2007) IPCC Assessment are analyzed here within the framework of a planetary energy balance model, taking into account the observed increase in global mean surface temperature over the instrumental record together with best estimates of the rate of increase of planetary heat content. This analysis shows systematic differences among the several assessments and apparent inconsistencies within individual assessments. Importantly, the likely range of ECS to doubled CO2 given in AR5, 1.5-4.5 K/(3.7 W m-2) exceeds the range inferred from the assessed likely range of forcing, 1.2-2.9 K/(3.7 W m-2), where 3.7 W m-2 denotes the forcing for doubled CO2. Such differences underscore the need to identify their causes and reduce the underlying uncertainties. Explanations might involve underestimated negative aerosol forcing, overestimated total forcing, overestimated climate sensitivity, poorly constrained ocean heating, limitations of the energy balance model, or a combination of effects.

  19. NASA Earth Exchange (NEX) Supporting Analyses for National Climate Assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nemani, R. R.; Thrasher, B. L.; Wang, W.; Lee, T. J.; Melton, F. S.; Dungan, J. L.; Michaelis, A.

    2015-12-01

    The NASA Earth Exchange (NEX) is a collaborative computing platform that has been developed with the objective of bringing scientists together with the software tools, massive global datasets, and supercomputing resources necessary to accelerate research in Earth systems science and global change. NEX supports several research projects that are closely related with the National Climate Assessment including the generation of high-resolution climate projections, identification of trends and extremes in climate variables and the evaluation of their impacts on regional carbon/water cycles and biodiversity, the development of land-use management and adaptation strategies for climate-change scenarios, and even the exploration of climate mitigation through geo-engineering. Scientists also use the large collection of satellite data on NEX to conduct research on quantifying spatial and temporal changes in land surface processes in response to climate and land-cover-land-use changes. Researchers, leveraging NEX's massive compute/storage resources, have used statistical techniques to downscale the coarse-resolution CMIP5 projections to fulfill the demands of the community for a wide range of climate change impact analyses. The DCP-30 (Downscaled Climate Projections at 30 arcsecond) for the conterminous US at monthly, ~1km resolution and the GDDP (Global Daily Downscaled Projections) for the entire world at daily, 25km resolution are now widely used in climate research and applications, as well as for communicating climate change. In order to serve a broader community, the NEX team in collaboration with Amazon, Inc, created the OpenNEX platform. OpenNEX provides ready access to NEX data holdings, including the NEX-DCP30 and GDDP datasets along with a number of pertinent analysis tools and workflows on the AWS infrastructure in the form of publicly available, self contained, fully functional Amazon Machine Images (AMI's) for anyone interested in global climate change.

  20. Communicating uncertainty: lessons learned and suggestions for climate change assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Assessments of climate change face the task of making information about uncertainty accessible and useful to decision-makers. The literature in behavior economics provides many examples of how people make decisions under conditions of uncertainty relying on inappropriate heuristics, leading to inconsistent and counterproductive choices. Modern risk communication practices recommend a number of methods to overcome these hurdles, which have been recommended for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment reports. This paper evaluates the success of the most recent IPCC approach to uncertainty communication, based on a controlled survey of climate change experts. Evaluating the results from the survey, and from a similar survey recently conducted among university students, the paper suggests that the most recent IPCC approach leaves open the possibility for biased and inconsistent responses to the information. The paper concludes by suggesting ways to improve the approach for future IPCC assessment reports. (authors)

  1. The inherent dangers of using computable general equilibrium models as a single integrated modelling framework for sustainability impact assessment. A critical note on Boehringer and Loeschel (2006)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Scrieciu, S. Serban [Cambridge Centre for Climate Change Mitigation Research, Department of Land Economy, The University of Cambridge, Cambridge, CB2 1QA (United Kingdom)

    2007-02-01

    The search for methods of assessment that best evaluate and integrate the trade-offs and interactions between the economic, environmental and social components of development has been receiving a new impetus due to the requirement that sustainability concerns be incorporated into the policy formulation process. A paper forthcoming in Ecological Economics (Boehringer, C., Loeschel, A., in press. Computable general equilibrium models for sustainability impact assessment: status quo and prospects, Ecological Economics.) claims that Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models may potentially represent the much needed 'back-bone' tool to carry out reliable integrated quantitative Sustainability Impact Assessments (SIAs). While acknowledging the usefulness of CGE models for some dimensions of SIA, this commentary questions the legitimacy of employing this particular economic modelling tool as a single integrating modelling framework for a comprehensive evaluation of the multi-dimensional, dynamic and complex interactions between policy and sustainability. It discusses several inherent dangers associated with the advocated prospects for the CGE modelling approach to contribute to comprehensive and reliable sustainability impact assessments. The paper warns that this reductionist viewpoint may seriously infringe upon the basic values underpinning the SIA process, namely a transparent, heterogeneous, balanced, inter-disciplinary, consultative and participatory take to policy evaluation and building of the evidence-base. (author)

  2. The inherent dangers of using computable general equilibrium models as a single integrated modelling framework for sustainability impact assessment. A critical note on Boehringer and Loeschel (2006)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The search for methods of assessment that best evaluate and integrate the trade-offs and interactions between the economic, environmental and social components of development has been receiving a new impetus due to the requirement that sustainability concerns be incorporated into the policy formulation process. A paper forthcoming in Ecological Economics (Boehringer, C., Loeschel, A., in press. Computable general equilibrium models for sustainability impact assessment: status quo and prospects, Ecological Economics.) claims that Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models may potentially represent the much needed 'back-bone' tool to carry out reliable integrated quantitative Sustainability Impact Assessments (SIAs). While acknowledging the usefulness of CGE models for some dimensions of SIA, this commentary questions the legitimacy of employing this particular economic modelling tool as a single integrating modelling framework for a comprehensive evaluation of the multi-dimensional, dynamic and complex interactions between policy and sustainability. It discusses several inherent dangers associated with the advocated prospects for the CGE modelling approach to contribute to comprehensive and reliable sustainability impact assessments. The paper warns that this reductionist viewpoint may seriously infringe upon the basic values underpinning the SIA process, namely a transparent, heterogeneous, balanced, inter-disciplinary, consultative and participatory take to policy evaluation and building of the evidence-base. (author)

  3. NASA indicators research in support of the National Climate Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leidner, A. K.; Houser, P. R.; Tsaoussi, L.

    2013-12-01

    Indicators have the potential to concisely communicate to a broad audience the observed and projected climate trends and anomalies, as well as society's vulnerability and ability to adapt to climate change. Consequently, indicators are anticipated to play an important role in the Fourth U.S. National Climate Assessment (NCA) report, slated to be released in four years. The NCA objectives include providing information about observed and anticipated changes in climate and assessing the impacts for regions and sectors, in order to help the nation prepare for a changing climate. Efforts are underway within the NCA to identify a set physical, ecological, and societal climate change indicators, by leveraging existing indicators currently in use by federal agencies. The NCA indicators are intended to provide meaningful and authoritative measures about the status and trends of climate for decision makers and the public. As a complement to this effort, and to support the NCA sustained assessment process, NASA solicited membership for an Indicators System Team and selected fourteen projects to begin research in summer 2013. These teams will develop and test potential new indicators that align with the vision set forth by the NCA, by combining NASA's remote sensing and modeling data products with additional datasets. Here, we further describe the objectives of the research program and highlight preliminary findings of several key projects related to physical, ecological, and societal climate change indicators, and discuss future research activities. Ultimately, this research will be made available in the peer-reviewed literature so that the newly developed indicators have the potential to be included in future NCA reports.

  4. Methods for assessment of climate variability and climate changes in different time-space scales

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Main problem of hydrology and design support for water projects connects with modern climate change and its impact on hydrological characteristics as observed as well as designed. There are three main stages of this problem: - how to extract a climate variability and climate change from complex hydrological records; - how to assess the contribution of climate change and its significance for the point and area; - how to use the detected climate change for computation of design hydrological characteristics. Design hydrological characteristic is the main generalized information, which is used for water management and design support. First step of a research is a choice of hydrological characteristic, which can be as a traditional one (annual runoff for assessment of water resources, maxima, minima runoff, etc) as well as a new one, which characterizes an intra-annual function or intra-annual runoff distribution. For this aim a linear model has been developed which has two coefficients connected with an amplitude and level (initial conditions) of seasonal function and one parameter, which characterizes an intensity of synoptic and macro-synoptic fluctuations inside a year. Effective statistical methods have been developed for a separation of climate variability and climate change and extraction of homogeneous components of three time scales from observed long-term time series: intra annual, decadal and centural. The first two are connected with climate variability and the last (centural) with climate change. Efficiency of new methods of decomposition and smoothing has been estimated by stochastic modeling and well as on the synthetic examples. For an assessment of contribution and statistical significance of modern climate change components statistical criteria and methods have been used. Next step has been connected with a generalization of the results of detected climate changes over the area and spatial modeling. For determination of homogeneous region with the same

  5. Risk assessment of climate systems for national security.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A.; Boslough, Mark Bruce Elrick; Brown, Theresa Jean; Cai, Ximing [University of Illinois-Urbana; Conrad, Stephen Hamilton; Constantine, Paul [Stanford University; Dalbey, Keith R.; Debusschere, Bert J.; Fields, Richard; Hart, David Blaine; Kalinina, Elena Arkadievna; Kerstein, Alan R.; Levy, Michael [National Center for Atmospheric Research; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Malczynski, Leonard A.; Najm, Habib N.; Overfelt, James Robert; Parks, Mancel Jordan; Peplinski, William J.; Safta, Cosmin; Sargsyan, Khachik; Stubblefield, William Anthony; Taylor, Mark A.; Tidwell, Vincent Carroll; Trucano, Timothy Guy; Villa, Daniel L.

    2012-10-01

    Climate change, through drought, flooding, storms, heat waves, and melting Arctic ice, affects the production and flow of resource within and among geographical regions. The interactions among governments, populations, and sectors of the economy require integrated assessment based on risk, through uncertainty quantification (UQ). This project evaluated the capabilities with Sandia National Laboratories to perform such integrated analyses, as they relate to (inter)national security. The combining of the UQ results from climate models with hydrological and economic/infrastructure impact modeling appears to offer the best capability for national security risk assessments.

  6. Climate Services for Development Planning and Implementation: A Framework for Assessing and Valuing Climate Services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, G.

    2012-04-01

    Climate Services for Development Planning and Implementation: A Framework for Assessing and Valuing Climate Services Anderson, Glen D. While weather forecasting products have been available globally for decades, the full suite of climate services - including historical and real time observational meteorological data, daily, weekly, and seasonal forecasts, and longer-term climate projections - has only been under development in the last 15 to 20 years. Climate services have been developed and implemented quite quickly in developed countries for public and private sector users. However, diffusion of these tools in developing countries has been slower for several reasons related to 1) lack of awareness of the opportunities and benefits of climate services; 2) spotty record of managing local weather and climate data; and 3) limited resources to build and sustain capacity in providing climate services. The Climate Services Partnership (CSP) was formed during the International Conference on Climate Services (ICCS) in October 2011. The CSP seeks to improve the provision and development of climate services worldwide. During the ICCS, three working groups were formed to carry out the work program of the CSP leading up to the second ICCS in Berlin in September 2012. The Economic Valuation of Climate Services Working Group, chaired by John Zillman and myself, is collaborating on several activities to demonstrate the benefits of climate services and help providers prioritize opportunities for expanding the use of climate services. The proposed paper will provide an overview of the Working Group's activities leading up to the next ICCS and describe specific work that is underway and expected to be completed prior to the EGU meetings. The focal point of the Working Group's activities is the development of matrix to help identify and value the best opportunities for using climate services. Different categories of climate services will be listed in rows and potential users of

  7. Multi-risk assessment: from natural hazards to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valentina, Gallina; Silvia, Torresan; Andrea, Critto; Antonio, Marcomini

    2014-05-01

    The World Bank report on the main hotspots of natural hazards highlights that million people in the world are relatively highly exposed to at least two hazards and additional impacts on natural and human systems can be posed by climate change. Therefore, a major challenge for natural hazard and climate impact research is to develop new methods and tools for the aggregation of cumulative effects expected from multiple impacts forced by natural and anthropogenic drivers across different regions and sectors, taking into account changing climate, exposure and vulnerability. So far, a hazard by hazard approach has been generally applied for evaluating the consequences of natural and climate change hazards on the analyzed region (e.g. heavy precipitations, floods, sea-level rise, coastal erosion, storm surges). However, different natural hazards and climate-related impacts affecting a region should be handled according to a multi-risk approach in order to aggregate, compare and rank different kinds of concurrent impacts caused by climate change. Several EU funded projects (e.g. ESPON-HAZARD, ARMONIA, MATRIX) were developed so far in order to provide sound scientific advancement towards the elaboration of multi-risk approaches. A full multi-risk approach entails both a multi-hazard and multi-vulnerability perspective. However, internationally, most of the work concerning multi-hazards focused especially on natural hazards (e.g. flooding, storm surges, landslides, seismicity, droughts) affecting the same area. Moreover, multi-risk approaches developed so far refer only to the assessment of different hazards and rely on the analysis of static vulnerability (i.e. no time-dependent vulnerabilities for different exposed elements), also called multi-hazard risk assessment. A relevant challenge is therefore to develop a comprehensive formal approach for the assessment of different natural and climate-induced hazards and risks at the regional scale. A critical review of existing

  8. Assessment of the Health Impacts of Climate Change in Kiribati

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lachlan McIver

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Kiribati—a low-lying, resource-poor Pacific atoll nation—is one of the most vulnerable countries in the World to the impacts of climate change, including the likely detrimental effects on human health. We describe the preparation of a climate change and health adaptation plan for Kiribati carried out by the World Health Organization and the Kiribati Ministry of Health and Medical Services, including an assessment of risks to health, sources of vulnerability and suggestions for highest priority adaptation responses. This paper identifies advantages and disadvantages in the process that was followed, lays out a future direction of climate change and health adaptation work in Kiribati, and proposes lessons that may be applicable to other small, developing island nations as they prepare for and adapt to the impacts of climate change on health.

  9. Assessing climate change mitigation technology interventions by international institutions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    de Coninck, Heleen; Puig, Daniel

    2015-01-01

    Accelerating the international use of climate mitigation technologies is key if effortsto curb climate change are to succeed, especially in developing countries, where weakdomestic technological innovation systems constrain the uptake of climate change mitigationtechnologies. Several...... intergovernmental agencies have set up specific programmes to supportthe diffusion of climate mitigation technologies. Using a simplified technological innovationsystem-based framework, this paper aims to systematically review these programmes, with thedual aim of assessing their collective success in promoting...... further developed include knowledge development, legitimation and marketformation. These could be focal areas for the UNFCCC Technology Mechanism. We recommendthat, in future programmes, part of the funding is dedicated to programmes doingresearch and development as well as capability development....

  10. Assessing the impact of climate change on extreme sea levels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Full text: Full text: Assessments of the impact of climate change on extreme sea levels along parts of the Victorian coast will be presented. The method involves identifying a large population of storm surge events in tide gauge records along the stretch of coastline of interest and modelling each event with a hydrodynamic model. Conditions under future climate regimes are considered by perturbing the atmospheric boundary conditions of the model in accordance with wind speed projections from climate models. Extreme value analysis is applied to the output of the hydrodynamic model to generate probabilities and return periods for storm surge heights. A Monte-Carlo approach is used to combine these heights with tide heights. Finally estimates of future mean sea level rise from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change are added in. Initial work on the possible impact of changes in extreme sea levels on the risk of inundation of low lying coastal land will also be presented

  11. Climate Change and Environmental assessments: Issues in an African Perspective

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dalfelt, Arne; Naess, Lars Otto

    1997-12-31

    The present report discusses the potential for integrating climate change issues into environmental assessments of development actions, with an emphasis on sub-Sahara Africa. The study is motivated by the fact that future climate change could have significant adverse impacts on the natural and socio-economic environment in Africa. Yet, to date global change issues, including climate change, have been largely overlooked in the process of improving environmental assessment procedures and methodologies. It is argued that although emissions of greenhouse gases in Africa are negligible today, it is highly relevant to include this aspect in the planning of long-term development strategies. The report discusses potential areas of conflicts and synergies between climate change and development goals. The general conclusion is that environmental assessments could be an appropriate tool for addressing climate change issues, while there are still several obstacles to its practical implementation. Four priority areas are suggested for further work: (1) Environmental accounting, (2) harmonization and standard-setting, (3) implementation, and (4) risk management. 82 refs., 5 figs., 11 tabs.

  12. Climate change mitigation and adaptation in strategic environmental assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Countries are implementing CO2 emission reduction targets in order to meet a globally agreed global warming limit of +2 °C. However, it was hypothesised that these national reduction targets are not translated to regional or state level planning, and are not considered through Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) in order to meet emission reduction obligations falling on the transport, energy, housing, agriculture, and forestry sectors. SEAs of land use plans in the German state of Saxony, and the English region of the East of England were examined for their consideration of climate change impacts based on a set of criteria drawn from the literature. It was found that SEAs in both cases failed to consider climate change impacts at scales larger than the boundary of the spatial plan, and that CO2 reduction targets were not considered. This suggests a need for more clarity in the legal obligations for climate change consideration within the text of the SEA Directive, a requirement for monitoring of carbon emissions, a need for methodological guidance to devolve global climate change targets down to regional and local levels, and a need for guidance on properly implementing climate change protection in SEA. - Highlights: ► Strategic Environmental Assessments (SEA) of 12 land use plans from Germany and England have been examined. ► SEA failed to consider climate change impacts at scales larger than the boundary of the land use plans. ► SEA should be an important instrument for climate protection. ► Concrete steps for climate protection mainstreaming into SEA at the European Union and national levels have been suggested.

  13. Incorporating climate-system and carbon-cycle uncertainties in integrated assessments of climate change. (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogelj, J.; McCollum, D. L.; Reisinger, A.; Knutti, R.; Riahi, K.; Meinshausen, M.

    2013-12-01

    The field of integrated assessment draws from a large body of knowledge across a range of disciplines to gain robust insights about possible interactions, trade-offs, and synergies. Integrated assessment of climate change, for example, uses knowledge from the fields of energy system science, economics, geophysics, demography, climate change impacts, and many others. Each of these fields comes with its associated caveats and uncertainties, which should be taken into account when assessing any results. The geophysical system and its associated uncertainties are often represented by models of reduced complexity in integrated assessment modelling frameworks. Such models include simple representations of the carbon-cycle and climate system, and are often based on the global energy balance equation. A prominent example of such model is the 'Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse Gas Induced Climate Change', MAGICC. Here we show how a model like MAGICC can be used for the representation of geophysical uncertainties. Its strengths, weaknesses, and limitations are discussed and illustrated by means of an analysis which attempts to integrate socio-economic and geophysical uncertainties. These uncertainties in the geophysical response of the Earth system to greenhouse gases remains key for estimating the cost of greenhouse gas emission mitigation scenarios. We look at uncertainties in four dimensions: geophysical, technological, social and political. Our results indicate that while geophysical uncertainties are an important factor influencing projections of mitigation costs, political choices that delay mitigation by one or two decades a much more pronounced effect.

  14. Climate Change Impact Assessment of Food- and Waterborne Diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Semenza, Jan C; Herbst, Susanne; Rechenburg, Andrea; Suk, Jonathan E; Höser, Christoph; Schreiber, Christiane; Kistemann, Thomas

    2012-04-01

    The PubMed and ScienceDirect bibliographic databases were searched for the period of 1998-2009 to evaluate the impact of climatic and environmental determinants on food- and waterborne diseases. The authors assessed 1,642 short and concise sentences (key facts), which were extracted from 722 relevant articles and stored in a climate change knowledge base. Key facts pertaining to temperature, precipitation, water, and food for 6 selected pathogens were scrutinized, evaluated, and compiled according to exposure pathways. These key facts (corresponding to approximately 50,000 words) were mapped to 275 terminology terms identified in the literature, which generated 6,341 connections. These relationships were plotted on semantic network maps to examine the interconnections between variables. The risk of campylobacteriosis is associated with mean weekly temperatures, although this link is shown more strongly in the literature relating to salmonellosis. Irregular and severe rain events are associated with Cryptosporidium sp. outbreaks, while noncholera Vibrio sp. displays increased growth rates in coastal waters during hot summers. In contrast, for Norovirus and Listeria sp. the association with climatic variables was relatively weak, but much stronger for food determinants. Electronic data mining to assess the impact of climate change on food- and waterborne diseases assured a methodical appraisal of the field. This climate change knowledge base can support national climate change vulnerability, impact, and adaptation assessments and facilitate the management of future threats from infectious diseases. In the light of diminishing resources for public health this approach can help balance different climate change adaptation options. PMID:24808720

  15. A new climate dataset for systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of global warming

    OpenAIRE

    Heinke, J.; Ostberg, S.; S. Schaphoff; Frieler, K.; C. Müller; Gerten, D.; Meinshausen, M.; Lucht, W.

    2013-01-01

    In the ongoing political debate on climate change, global mean temperature change (ΔTglob) has become the yardstick by which mitigation costs, impacts from unavoided climate change, and adaptation requirements are discussed. For a scientifically informed discourse along these lines, systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of ΔTglob are required. The current availability of climate change scenarios constrains this type of assessment to a narrow range of tempe...

  16. Assessing Climate Impacts on Air Pollution from Models and Measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holloway, T.; Plachinski, S. D.; Morton, J. L.; Spak, S.

    2011-12-01

    It is well known that large-scale patterns in temperature, humidity, solar radiation and atmospheric circulation affect formation and transport of atmospheric constituents. These relationships have supported a growing body of work projecting changes in ozone (O3), and to a lesser extent aerosols, as a function of changing climate. Typically, global and regional chemical transport models are used to quantify climate impacts on air pollution, but the ability of these models to assess weather-dependent chemical processes has not been thoroughly evaluated. Quantifying model sensitivity to climate poses the additional challenge of isolating the local to synoptic scale effects of meteorological conditions on chemistry and transport from concurrent trends in emissions, hemispheric background concentrations, and land cover change. Understanding how well models capture historic climate-chemistry relationships is essential in projecting future climate impacts, in that it allows for better evaluation of model skill and improved understanding of climate-chemistry relationships. We compare the sensitivity of chemistry-climate relationships, as simulated by the EPA Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model, with observed historical response characteristics from EPA Air Quality System (AQS) monitoring data. We present results for O3, sulfate and nitrate aerosols, and ambient mercury concentrations. Despite the fact that CMAQ over-predicts daily maximum 8-hour ground-level O3 concentrations relative to AQS data, the model does an excellent job at simulating the response of O3 to daily maximum temperature. In both model and observations, we find that higher temperatures produce higher O3 across most of the U.S., as expected in summertime conditions. However, distinct regions appear in both datasets where temperature and O3 are anti-correlated - for example, over the Upper Midwestern U.S. states of Iowa, Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana in July 2002. Characterizing uncertainties

  17. Assessing Climate Misconceptions of Middle School Learners and Teachers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahagian, D. L.; Anastasio, D. J.; Bodzin, A.; Cirucci, L.; Bressler, D.; Dempsey, C.; Peffer, T.

    2012-12-01

    Middle School students and their teachers are among the many populations in the U.S. with misconceptions regarding the science or even reality of climate change. Teaching climate change science in schools is of paramount importance since all school-age children will eventually assume responsibility for the management and policy-making decisions of our planet. The recently published Framework for K-12 Science Education (National Research Council, 2012) emphasizes the importance of students understanding global climate change and its impacts on society. A preliminary assessment of over a thousand urban middles school students found the following from pretests prior to a climate literacy curriculum: - Do not understand that climate occurs on a time scale of decades (most think it is weeks or months) -Do not know the main atmospheric contributors to global warming -Do not understand the role of greenhouse gases as major contributors to increasing Earth's surface temperature -Do not understand the role of water vapor to trap heat and add to the greenhouse effect -Cannot identify some of the human activities that increase the amount of CO2 -Cannot identify sources of carbon emissions produced by US citizens -Cannot describe human activities that are causing the long-term increase of carbon -dioxide levels over the last 100 years -Cannot describe carbon reduction strategies that are feasible for lowering the levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere To address the lack of a well-designed middle school science climate change curriculum that can be used to help teachers promote the teaching and learning of important climate change concepts, we developed a 20-day Environmental Literacy and Inquiry (ELI): Climate Change curriculum in partnership with a local school district. Comprehension increased significantly from pre- to post-test after enactment of the ELI curriculum in the classrooms. This work is part of an ongoing systemic curriculum reform initiative to promote (1

  18. Climate Change Impacts and Responses: Societal Indicators for the National Climate Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kenney, Melissa A.; Chen, Robert S.; Maldonado, Julie; Quattrochi, Dale

    2011-01-01

    The Climate Change Impacts and Responses: Societal Indicators for the National Climate Assessment workshop, sponsored by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) for the National Climate Assessment (NCA), was held on April 28-29, 2011 at The Madison Hotel in Washington, DC. A group of 56 experts (see list in Appendix B) convened to share their experiences. Participants brought to bear a wide range of disciplinary expertise in the social and natural sciences, sector experience, and knowledge about developing and implementing indicators for a range of purposes. Participants included representatives from federal and state government, non-governmental organizations, tribes, universities, and communities. The purpose of the workshop was to assist the NCA in developing a strategic framework for climate-related physical, ecological, and socioeconomic indicators that can be easily communicated with the U.S. population and that will support monitoring, assessment, prediction, evaluation, and decision-making. The NCA indicators are envisioned as a relatively small number of policy-relevant integrated indicators designed to provide a consistent, objective, and transparent overview of major variations in climate impacts, vulnerabilities, adaptation, and mitigation activities across sectors, regions, and timeframes. The workshop participants were asked to provide input on a number of topics, including: (1) categories of societal indicators for the NCA; (2) alternative approaches to constructing indicators and the better approaches for NCA to consider; (3) specific requirements and criteria for implementing the indicators; and (4) sources of data for and creators of such indicators. Socioeconomic indicators could include demographic, cultural, behavioral, economic, public health, and policy components relevant to impacts, vulnerabilities, and adaptation to climate change as well as both proactive and reactive responses to climate change. Participants provided

  19. CLIMCONG: A framework-tool for assessing CLIMate CONGruency

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buras, Allan; Kölling, Christian; Menzel, Annette

    2016-04-01

    It is widely accepted that the anticipated elevational and latitudinal shifting of climate forces living organisms (including humans) to track these changes in space over a certain time. Due to the complexity of climate change, prediction of consequent migrations is a difficult procedure afflicted with many uncertainties. To simplify climate complexity and ease respective attempts, various approaches aimed at classifying global climates. For instance, the frequently used Köppen-Geiger climate classification (Köppen, 1900) has been applied to predict the shift of climate zones throughout the 21st century (Rubel and Kottek, 2010). Another - more objective but also more complex - classification approach has recently been presented by Metzger et al. (2013). Though being comprehensive, classifications have certain drawbacks, as I) often focusing on few variables, II) having discrete borders at the margins of classes, and III) subjective selection of an arbitrary number of classes. Ecological theory suggests that when only considering temperature and precipitation (such as Köppen, 1900) particular climate features - e.g. radiation and plant water availability - may not be represented with sufficient precision. Furthermore, sharp boundaries among homogeneous classes do not reflect natural gradients. To overcome the aforementioned drawbacks, we here present CLIMCONG - a framework-tool for assessing climate congruency for quantitatively describing climate similarity through continua in space and time. CLIMCONG allows users to individually select variables for calculation of climate congruency. By this, particular foci can be specified, depending on actual research questions posed towards climate change. For instance, while ecologists focus on a multitude of parameters driving net ecosystem productivity, water managers may only be interested in variables related to drought extremes and water availability. Based on the chosen parameters CLIMCONG determines congruency of

  20. A Tool for Assessing Social Climate in University Classrooms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sánchez, Carles Rostan; Ortiz, Dolors Cañabate; Carrasco, Mònica González; Carbo, Pilar Albertín; Burriel, Marc Pérez

    2015-01-01

    Introduction: Despite academic climate being a key aspect of teaching quality in academic institutions, few studies conducted in the university context have analyzed this construct systematically. Method: Given the absence of specific tools to apply to university, we propose the construction of a tool for assessing college students' perceptions of…

  1. Bacterial danger sensing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    LeRoux, Michele; Peterson, S Brook; Mougous, Joseph D

    2015-11-20

    Here we propose that bacteria detect and respond to threats posed by other bacteria via an innate immune-like process that we term danger sensing. We find support for this contention by reexamining existing literature from the perspective that intermicrobial antagonism, not opportunistic pathogenesis, is the major evolutionary force shaping the defensive behaviors of most bacteria. We conclude that many bacteria possess danger sensing pathways composed of a danger signal receptor and corresponding signal transduction mechanism that regulate pathways important for survival in the presence of the perceived competitor. PMID:26434507

  2. Developing a System of National Climate Assessment Indicators to Track Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerabilities, and Preparedness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janetos, A. C.; Kenney, M. A.; Chen, R. S.; Arndt, D.

    2012-12-01

    The National Climate Assessment (NCA) is being conducted under the auspices of the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), pursuant to the Global Change Research Act of 1990, Section 106, which requires a report to Congress every 4 years (http://globalchange.gov/what-we-do/assessment/). Part of the vision for the sustained National Climate Assessment (NCA) process is a system of physical, ecological, and societal indicators that communicate key aspects of the physical climate, climate impacts, vulnerabilities, and preparedness for the purpose of informing both decision makers and the public with scientifically valid information that is useful to inform decision-making processes such as the development and implementation of climate adaptation strategies in a particular sector or region. These indicators will be tracked as a part of ongoing assessment activities, with adjustments as necessary to adapt to changing conditions and understanding. The indicators will be reviewed and updated so that the system adapts to new information. The NCA indicator system is not intended to serve as a vehicle for documenting rigorous cause and effect relationships. It is reasonable, however, for it to serve as a guide to those factors that affect the evolution of variability and change in the climate system, the resources and sectors of concern that are affected by it, and how society chooses to respond. Different components of the end-to-end climate issue serve as categories within which to organize an end-to-end system of indicators: Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks Atmospheric Composition Physical Climate Variability and Change Sectors and Resources of Concern Adaptation and Mitigation Responses This framing has several advantages. It can be used to identify the different components of the end-to-end climate issue that both decision-makers and researchers are interested in. It is independent of scale, and therefore allows the indicators themselves to be described at

  3. An attempt to assess the energy related climate variability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Iotova, A. [Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Sofia (Bulgaria). National Inst. of Meteorology and Hydrology

    1995-12-31

    A lot of efforts are directed now to study the interactions between energy and climate because of their significant importance for our planet. Globally, energy related emissions of Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) contribute for atmospheric warming. On regional level, where it is more difficult to determine concrete direction of climate variability and change, the role of energy remains considerable being not so direct as in the case of emissions` impact. Still there is essential necessity for further analyses and assessments of energy related climate variations and change in order to understand better and to quantify the energy - climate relations. In the presentation an attempt is made to develop approach for assessment of energy related climate variations on regional level. For this purpose, data and results from the research within Bulgarian Case Study (BCS) in the DECADES Inter-Agency Project framework are used. Considering the complex nature of the examined interconnections and the medium stage of the Study`s realisation, at the moment the approach can be presented in conceptual form. Correspondingly, the obtained results are illustrative and preliminary

  4. Assessing climate change. Temperatures, solar radiation, and heat balance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rapp, Donald

    2008-07-01

    In ASSESSING CLIMATE CHANGE Donald Rapp has investigated a large body of scientific data relevant to climate change, approaching each element with necessary (but neutral) scientific skepticism. The chapters of the book attempt to answer a number of essential questions in relation to global warming and climate change. He begins by showing how the earth's climate has varied in the past, discussing ice ages, the Holocene period since the end of the last ice age, particularly during the past 1000 years. He investigates the reliability of ''proxies'' for historical temperatures and assesses the hockey stick version of global temperatures for the past millennium. To do this effectively he looks carefully at how well near surface temperatures of land and ocean on earth have been monitored during the past 100 years or more, and looks at the utility and significance of a single global average temperature. Topics such as the variability of the Sun and the Earth's heat balance are discussed in considerable detail. The author also investigates how the current global warming trend compares with past fluctuations in earth's climate and what is the likelihood that the warming trend we are experiencing now is primarily just another in a series of natural climate fluctuations as opposed to a direct result of human activities. A key factor in understanding what may happen in the future is to examine the credibility of the global climate models which claim that greenhouse gases produce most of the temperature rise of the 20th Century, and forecast much greater impacts in the century ahead. Finally, the book considers future global energy requirements, fossil fuel usage and carbon dioxide production, public policy relating to global warming, and agreements such as the Kyoto Protocol. (orig.)

  5. US National Climate Assessment (NCA) Scenarios for Assessing Our Climate Future: Issues and Methodological Perspectives Background Whitepaper for Participants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moss, Richard H.; Engle, Nathan L.; Hall, John; Jacobs, Kathy; Lempert, Rob; Mearns, L. O.; Melillo, Jerry; Mote, Phil; O' Brien, Sheila; Rosenzweig, C.; Ruane, Alex; Sheppard, Stephen; Vallario, Robert W.; Wiek, Arnim; Wilbanks, Thomas

    2011-10-01

    This whitepaper is intended to provide a starting point for discussion at a workshop for the National Climate Assessment (NCA) that focuses on the use and development of scenarios. The paper will provide background needed by participants in the workshop in order to review options for developing and using scenarios in NCA. The paper briefly defines key terms and establishes a conceptual framework for developing consistent scenarios across different end uses and spatial scales. It reviews uses of scenarios in past U.S. national assessments and identifies potential users of and needs for scenarios for both the report scheduled for release in June 2013 and to support an ongoing distributed assessment process in sectors and regions around the country. Because scenarios prepared for the NCA will need to leverage existing research, the paper takes account of recent scientific advances and activities that could provide needed inputs. Finally, it considers potential approaches for providing methods, data, and other tools for assessment participants. We note that the term 'scenarios' has many meanings. An important goal of the whitepaper (and portions of the workshop agenda) is pedagogical (i.e., to compare different meanings and uses of the term and make assessment participants aware of the need to be explicit about types and uses of scenarios). In climate change research, scenarios have been used to establish bounds for future climate conditions and resulting effects on human and natural systems, given a defined level of greenhouse gas emissions. This quasi-predictive use contrasts with the way decision analysts typically use scenarios (i.e., to consider how robust alternative decisions or strategies may be to variation in key aspects of the future that are uncertain). As will be discussed, in climate change research and assessment, scenarios describe a range of aspects of the future, including major driving forces (both human activities and natural processes

  6. Climate Change Assessments for Lakes Region of Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ayten Erol

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is one of the most important challenges for forestry. Forests are known to be most efficient natural tools to ensure availability and quality of water in many regions. Besides, planning of forest resources towards water quality and quantity is essential in countries that are expected to face with more frequent drought periods in the next decades due to climate change. Watershed management concept has been supposed as the primary tool to plan natural resources in a more efficient and sustainable way by both academicians and practitioners to mitigate and adapt climate change. Forest cover among other land use types provides the best regulating mechanism to mitigate erosion, sedimentation, desertification, and pollution. In addition, climate change can potentially affect forest stand dynamics by influencing the availability of water resources. Therefore, the amount of forest cover in a watershed is an indicator of climate change mitigation and adaptation. Climate change is a concern and risk for the sustainability of water resources in Lakes Region of Turkey. The objective of this study is to make a comprehensive assessment in lake watersheds of the Lakes region considering the forest cover. For this purpose, the study gives a general view of trends in climatic parameters using Mann Kendall trend test. The results showed that Mann Kendall trend test for temperature and precipitation data is not enough to evaluate the magnitude of potential changes of climate in terms of forest cover. Understanding impacts of changes in temperature and precipitation on forest cover, runoff data should be evaluated with temperature and precipitation for watersheds of forest areas in Lakes Region.

  7. Industry and dangerous wastes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The serious danger present tailing dumps of functioning and closed mineral resource industry in consequence of their weak security from natural disasters, proximity to water-ways, towns and state boundaries and also considering of past accidents

  8. Colored Contact Lens Dangers

    Medline Plus

    Full Text Available ... Uveitis Focus On Pediatric Ophthalmology Education Center Oculofacial Plastic Surgery Center Laser Surgery Education Center Redmond Ethics Center Global ... Halloween Hazard: The Hidden Dangers of Buying Decorative Contact Lenses Without a Prescription ...

  9. Incentives and stability of international climate coalitions: An integrated assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper analyses the incentives to participate in an international climate agreement and the stability of the resulting climate coalition using the integrated assessment model WITCH. Coalition stability is assessed under alternative assumptions concerning the pure rate of time preference, the aggregation of social welfare, and the severity of climate damages. The profitability, stability, and strong potential internal stability of a number of coalitions, those potentially effective in reducing GHG emissions, is explored in the paper. The main conclusion is that only the grand coalition, i.e. a coalition where all world regions cooperate to reduce emissions, can maintain GHG concentration below 550 ppm CO2-eq. However, this coalition is not internally stable, even when allowing for monetary transfers across world regions. Nonetheless, the paper also shows that strongly potentially internally stable coalitions exist, though of smaller size, which can mitigate global warming and limit GHG concentrations to 600 ppm CO2-eq. - Highlights: ► We analyse climate coalitions with an integrated assessment model. ► Coalitions’ profitability and stability is analysed under alternative assumptions. ► Effective coalitions should include larger emitters (such as India and China). ► A coalition that achieves 550 ppm CO2-eq is not internally stable. ► A stable coalition can achieve around 518 ppme in 2050 and 600 ppme in 2100

  10. Climate and desertification: indicators for an assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This work aims to define a methodology that, on the basis of commonly available surface climate records, assesses indicators of the increase or decrease of the extension of territories vulnerable to desertification and land degradation. The definition and quantification of environmental policy relevant indicators aims to improve the understanding and the decision making processes in dry lands. the results of this study show that since 1931 changes of climate involved 90% of the territory of the Sicilian region, with stronger intensity in the internal areas of Enna, Caltanissetta and Palermo provinces. (Author) 9 refs.

  11. Climate variability impact assessment on the flood risk in Slovenia

    OpenAIRE

    Šraj, Mojca; Menih, Matevž; Bezak, Nejc

    2016-01-01

    Assessment of climate change or climate variability is a significant topic in most geophysical disciplines. In this study, the flood frequency approach was selected to analyze changes in flood series. Discharge data from 55 gaging stations in Slovenia were used. The annual maximum method was applied to define the samples. The data sets were divided into 30-year periods based on a 10-year moving window. For each part of the data-set, the flood frequency analysis was performed. Changes in the e...

  12. Assessing the Vulnerability of Agriculture to Climate Change in Jordan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khresat, Sa'eb; Shraidaeh, Fadi; Maddat, Amer

    2015-04-01

    Climate change represents one of the greatest environmental, social and economic threats facing Jordan. In particular, the combined effects of climate change and water scarcity threaten to affect food and water resources that are critical for livelihoods in Jordan. This is especially true for those communities who live in the dryland area in the country and who rely wholly on rain-fed agriculture. The exact nature and extent of the impact of climate change on temperature and precipitation distribution pattern remain uncertain and it is the poor and vulnerable who will be the most susceptible to climate change adverse effects. A vulnerability assessment of rain fed agriculture to climate change and variability in semi-arid parts of Jordan was conducted in 2014. The purpose of this study is to assess the vulnerability and resilience of the most vulnerable groups where rainfed and irrigated agriculture is practiced. Also, the study focused on quantifying the impacts on agricultural productivity in response to climate change. This will help policymakers and researchers better understand and anticipate the likely impacts of climate change on agriculture and on vulnerable communities in Jordan. Also, it will provide them with tools to identify and implement appropriate adaptation strategies. The data used includes; Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 adopted by the IPCC for its fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Those pathways were used for climate modeling. A decision support system (DSSAT) for agricultural production was used to assess the impact of climate changes on agricultural production. This approach was used for the Identification of climate change risk and their impacts on Agriculture. Outputs from models are used to assess the vulnerability of farmers and crops to climate and socio-economic change by estimating their sensitivity and capacity to adapt to external factors as a means of identifying what causes the differences in their

  13. Trauma is danger

    OpenAIRE

    Porterfield Nancy; Hwang Paul F; Pannell Dylan; Davis Thomas A; Elster Eric A

    2011-01-01

    Abstract Background Trauma is one of the leading causes of death in young adult patients. Many pre-clinical and clinical studies attempt to investigate the immunological pathways involved, however the true mediators remain to be elucidated. Herein, we attempt to describe the immunologic response to systemic trauma in the context of the Danger model. Data Sources A literature search using PubMed was used to identify pertinent articles describing the Danger model in relation to trauma. Conclusi...

  14. Assessing climate change impact by integrated hydrological modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lajer Hojberg, Anker; Jørgen Henriksen, Hans; Olsen, Martin; der Keur Peter, van; Seaby, Lauren Paige; Troldborg, Lars; Sonnenborg, Torben; Refsgaard, Jens Christian

    2013-04-01

    showed some unexpected results, where climate models predicting the largest increase in net precipitation did not result in the largest increase in groundwater heads. This was found to be the result of different initial conditions (1990 - 2010) for the various climate models. In some areas a combination of a high initial groundwater head and an increase in precipitation towards 2021 - 2050 resulted in a groundwater head raise that reached the drainage or the surface water system. This will increase the exchange from the groundwater to the surface water system, but reduce the raise in groundwater heads. An alternative climate model, with a lower initial head can thus predict a higher increase in the groundwater head, although the increase in precipitation is lower. This illustrates an extra dimension in the uncertainty assessment, namely the climate models capability of simulating the current climatic conditions in a way that can reproduce the observed hydrological response. Højberg, AL, Troldborg, L, Stisen, S, et al. (2012) Stakeholder driven update and improvement of a national water resources model - http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364815212002423 Seaby, LP, Refsgaard, JC, Sonnenborg, TO, et al. (2012) Assessment of robustness and significance of climate change signals for an ensemble of distribution-based scaled climate projections (submitted) Journal of Hydrology Stisen, S, Højberg, AL, Troldborg, L et al., (2012): On the importance of appropriate rain-gauge catch correction for hydrological modelling at mid to high latitudes - http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/16/4157/2012/

  15. The National Climate Assessment as a Resource for Science Communication

    Science.gov (United States)

    Somerville, R. C. J.

    2014-12-01

    The 2014 Third National Climate Assessment (NCA3) is scientifically authoritative and features major advances, relative to other assessments produced by several organizations. NCA3 is a valuable resource for communicating climate science to a wide variety of audiences. Other assessments were often overly detailed and laden with scientific jargon that made them appear too complex and technical to many in their intended audiences, especially policymakers, the media, and the broad public. Some other assessments emphasized extensive scientific caveats, quantitative uncertainty estimates and broad consensus support. All these attributes, while valuable in research, carry the risk of impeding science communication to non-specialists. Without compromising scientific accuracy and integrity, NCA3 is written in exceptionally clear and vivid English. It includes outstanding graphics and employs powerful techniques aimed at conveying key results unambiguously to a wide range of audiences. I have used NCA3 as a resource in speaking about climate change in three very different settings: classroom teaching for undergraduate university students, presenting in academia to historians and other non-scientists, and briefing corporate executives working on renewable energy. NCA3 proved the value of developing a climate assessment with communication goals and strategies given a high priority throughout the process, not added on as an afterthought. I draw several lessons. First, producing an outstanding scientific assessment is too complex and demanding a task to be carried out by scientists alone. Many types of specialized expertise are also needed. Second, speaking about science to a variety of audiences requires an assortment of communication skills and tools, all tailored to specific groups of listeners. Third, NCA3 is scientifically impeccable and is also an outstanding example of effective communication as well as a valuable resource for communicators.

  16. Climate Change Assessment and Adaptation Planning for the Southeast US

    Science.gov (United States)

    Georgakakos, A. P.; Yao, H.; Zhang, F.

    2012-12-01

    A climate change assessment is carried out for the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin in the southeast US following an integrated water resources assessment and planning framework. The assessment process begins with the development/selection of consistent climate, demographic, socio-economic, and land use/cover scenarios. Historical scenarios and responses are analyzed first to establish baseline conditions. Future climate scenarios are based on GCMs available through the IPCC. Statistical and/or dynamic downscaling of GCM outputs is applied to generate high resolution (12x12 km) atmospheric forcing, such as rainfall, temperature, and ET demand, over the ACF River Basin watersheds. Physically based watershed, aquifer, and estuary models (lumped and distributed) are used to quantify the hydrologic and water quality river basin response to alternative climate and land use/cover scenarios. Demand assessments are carried out for each water sector, for example, water supply for urban, agricultural, and industrial users; hydro-thermal facilities; navigation reaches; and environmental/ecological flow and lake level requirements, aiming to establish aspirational water use targets, performance metrics, and management/adaptation options. Response models for the interconnected river-reservoir-aquifer-estuary system are employed next to assess actual water use levels and other sector outputs under a specific set of hydrologic inputs, demand targets, and management/adaptation options. Adaptive optimization methods are used to generate system-wide management policies conditional on inflow forecasts. The generated information is used to inform stakeholder planning and decision processes aiming to develop consensus on adaptation measures, management strategies, and performance monitoring indicators. The assessment and planning process is driven by stakeholder input and is inherently iterative and sequential.

  17. Fishing in dangerous waters: Remarks on a controversial appeal to spawner-recruit theory for long-term impact assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In the Hudson River power plant case, the defending utility companies appealed to the practices of commercial fishery managers as precedent for their own uses of spawner-recruit models in forecasting the effects on stock abundances of long-term water withdrawals by the power plants. In contrast to this perception of spawner-recruit models as commonly accepted instruments of fishery management, the present survey of managers and regulatory agencies revealed instead a universal rejection of such models. The inadequacies of spawner-recruit models were attributed variously to the effects of environmental uncertainty, to imperfect knowledge of population regulation, and to the lack of sufficient biological meaning in the models themselves. In general, impact assessment little resembles fishery regulation because the options and privileges commonly exercised by a fishery manager are closed to impact management. In either case, long-term forecasting remains unreliable due to the problem, as yet unsolved, of predicting reproduction and recruitment in natural populations. 21 refs., 1 fig

  18. Avoiding climate change uncertainties in Strategic Environmental Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Sanne Vammen; Kørnøv, Lone; Driscoll, Patrick Arthur

    2013-01-01

    This article is concerned with how Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) practice handles climate change uncertainties within the Danish planning system. First, a hypothetical model is set up for how uncertainty is handled and not handled in decision-making. The model incorporates the strategies...... ‘reduction’ and ‘resilience’, ‘denying’, ‘ignoring’ and ‘postponing’. Second, 151 Danish SEAs are analysed with a focus on the extent to which climate change uncertainties are acknowledged and presented, and the empirical findings are discussed in relation to the model. The findings indicate that despite...... incentives to do so, climate change uncertainties were systematically avoided or downplayed in all but 5 of the 151 SEAs that were reviewed. Finally, two possible explanatory mechanisms are proposed to explain this: conflict avoidance and a need to quantify uncertainty....

  19. Avoiding climate change uncertainties in Strategic Environmental Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This article is concerned with how Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) practice handles climate change uncertainties within the Danish planning system. First, a hypothetical model is set up for how uncertainty is handled and not handled in decision-making. The model incorporates the strategies ‘reduction’ and ‘resilience’, ‘denying’, ‘ignoring’ and ‘postponing’. Second, 151 Danish SEAs are analysed with a focus on the extent to which climate change uncertainties are acknowledged and presented, and the empirical findings are discussed in relation to the model. The findings indicate that despite incentives to do so, climate change uncertainties were systematically avoided or downplayed in all but 5 of the 151 SEAs that were reviewed. Finally, two possible explanatory mechanisms are proposed to explain this: conflict avoidance and a need to quantify uncertainty

  20. Climate impact on social systems. The risk assessment approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A novel approach to the problem of estimating climate impact on social systems is suggested. This approach is based on a risk concept, where the notion of critical events is introduced and the probability of such event is estimated. The estimation considers both the real stochasticity of climatic processes and the artificial stochasticity of climate predictions due to scientific uncertainties. The method is worked out in some detail for the regional problem of crop production and the risks associated with global climate change, and illustrated by a case study (Kursk region of the FSU). In order to get local climatic characteristics (weather) a so-called 'statistical weather generator' is used. One interesting finding is that the 3%-risk level remains constant up to 1- -1.1 deg. C rise of mean seasonal temperature, if the variance does not change. On the other hand, the risk grows rapidly with increasing variance (even if the mean temperature rises very slowly). The risk approach allows to separate two problems: (i) assessment of Global Change impact and (ii) decision-making. The main task for the scientific community is to provide the politicians with different options; the choice of admissible (from the social point of view) critical events and the corresponding risk levels is the business of decision makers. (au)

  1. Integrated science model for assessment of climate change. Revision 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Past measurements show that greenhouse gas concentrations, many of which are affected by human related activities, are increasing in the atmosphere. There is wide consensus that this increase influences related activities, are increasing the earth's energy balance and concern that this will cause significant change in climate. Many different policies could be adopted in response to the prospects of greenhouse warming. Models are used by policy markers to analyze the range of possible policy options developed as a response to concerns about climate change. A fully integrated assessment model that spans the many aspects of climate change, including economics, energy options, effects of climate, and impacts of climate change, would be a useful tool. With this goal in mind, the science modules which estimate the effect of emissions of greenhouse gasses on global temperature and sea level are being developed. This is a report of the current characteristics and performance of an Integrated Science Model which consists of coupled modules for carbon cycle, atmospheric chemistry of other trace gases, radiative forcing by greenhouse gases, energy balance model for global temperature, and a model for sea level response

  2. Climate Change Vulnerability Assessments: Four Case Studies of Water Utility Practices (2011 Final)

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA is releasing the final report titled, Climate Change Vulnerability Assessments: Four Case Studies of Water Utility Practices. This report was prepared by the National Center for Environmental Assessment's Global Climate Research Staff in the Office of Research and Developmen...

  3. Uncertainty assessment in climate change simulation of Ganges basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joseph, Jisha; Pathak, Amey; Ghosh, Subimal

    2015-04-01

    The assessment of hydrological responses to the change in climate at river basin scale is very essential for the proper planning and management of water resources. For studying the changes in land surface hydrology with climate, various hydrological models coupled with climate models were developed. However, modeling of the regional hydroclimate involves uncertainty at multiple levels. Generally, GCMs, downscaling methods and parameterization are the main sources of uncertainty. The major challenge in hydrological modeling is the calibration of parameters which demands very accurate observed data. The inter comparison of various uncertainties can be done by modeling the uncertainties. If the major source of uncertainty in modeling is identified, the level of accuracy required in the model calibration can be studied. Our objective is to assess future hydrological scenario in the Ganges basin considering multiple GCMs, scenarios and parameter uncertainty model and to identify and compare different sources of uncertainties in assessing the hydrological impacts of climate change. Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model which is a semi-distributed macro scale hydrological model is used for the present study. The model is run for a historic period 1979-2005 using the observed and reanalysis data and is evaluated using soil moisture data. The Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) method is carried out for the four calibration parameters in VIC and the model is run for future scenario using different GCMs and downscaling methods. The probability distribution of the output is used for modeling the uncertainties. The present analysis shows that accuracy in climate change simulations can be achieved by modeling the uncertainty, which will certainly improve the future regional hydroclimate projection. Keywords: uncertainty, Variable Infiltration Capacity model, Monte Carlo simulation

  4. Estimating live fuel status by drought indices: an approach for assessing local impact of climate change on fire danger

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Pellizzaro, G.; Dubrovský, Martin; Bortolu, S.; Ventura, A.; Arca, B.; Masia, P.; Duce, P.

    Vol. 16. Göttingen: EGU, 2014. EGU2014-5795. ISSN 1607-7962. [EGU General Assembly /11./. 27.04.2014-02.05.2014, Vienna] Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology http://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU2014/EGU2014-5795.pdf

  5. Assessement of user needs for climate change scenarios in Switzerland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, Andreas; Liniger, Mark; Flückiger-Knutti, Jacqueline

    2016-04-01

    There is a growing demand to assess and inform about future climate change and its impacts on society and ecosystems and to deduce appropriate adaptation strategies. The basis for such assessments are reliable and up-to-date climate change scenarios on the local to regional scale. In Switzerland, an important step has been accomplished by the release of the climate scenarios in 2011 ("CH2011"). New climate model simulations, an improved scientific understanding and new statistical downscaling tools make an update of these scenarios necessary. An important component toward the new national scenarios "CH2018" are the consideration of user needs in order to ensure that the new scenarios are user-tailored and hence find a wide applicability. The new CH2018 scenarios are developed in the framework of the recently founded National Center for Climate Services (NCCS). To get a better overview of who the users of climate scenarios are and what they need, a comprehensive market research was undertaken. The survey targeted the most climate-relevant sectors, and considered representatives from administration, research and private companies across Switzerland. The survey comprised several qualitative group interviews with key stakeholders, as well as a written questionaire, answered by more than one hundred users. Additionally, two workshops were organized to gather the needs in dissemination of climate scenarios. The results of the survey show the necessity to classify the user needs according to the level of usage: "intensive users" are mainly researchers who handle large climate scenario data for further use in subsequent impact studies; "extensive users" are usually from administrations or consulting companies and perform simple calculations for specific questions or use provided graphics and tables; "facilitators" are usually from media, NGOs or schools and process and disseminate scenario information for a specific target group. The less intensive the usage of climate

  6. CONTRIBUTION OF ROMANIAN SOILS TO THE POLLUTION OF ATMOSPHERE WITH CO2, THE DANGERS OF CLIMATE CHANGES AND MEASURES TO ATTENUATE OR ELIMINATE THEM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mihai Berca

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Romania has a surface of abt. 24 mil ha, and is almost entirely covered with soils. Over 9 millions hectars belong to thegroup of arable soils, cultivated with different field crops and permanently submitted to agricultural machineinterventions. This led to the oxidation of organic matter and of the heteropolycondensed humus due to the lack oftechnical and scientific instruments to stabilize the soils. In the moment when soils in the Southern, Eastern andWestern part of Romania were fallowed, these owned up to 15 % humus, either in a condensed form (huminic acids,either as humus-C, i.e. biomass residua in transformation.By the taking in culture and the soil tillage within the conventional system practiced still in our days, the analysis ofliterature and simulation calculations made by us showed that beginning 1930 until nowadays, over 70% of theagricultural soil humus was lost and abt 29 billions tons of CO2 and other dangerous gases were cast in the air.Recuperation of CO2 from air can be done only by „greening” all the surfaces and reintroducing CO2 in soil as humus.This can be done the speediest possible in a rate of maximum 0,1 % humus /year. There is no a viable solution for this,able to solve quickly the absorbtion.

  7. Climate Vulnerability Assessments : An Assessment of Climate Change Vulnerability, Risk, and Adaptation in Albania's Energy Sector

    OpenAIRE

    World Bank

    2009-01-01

    Many countries are increasingly vulnerable to destructive weather events, floods, droughts, windstorms, or other parameters. The vulnerability is driven in part by recent extremes in climate variability but also by countries' sensitivity to events exacerbated by past practices, socioeconomic conditions, or legacy issues. The degree to which vulnerability to weather affects the countries' e...

  8. BioCAS: Biometeorological Climate impact Assessment System for building-scale impact assessment of heat-stress related mortality

    OpenAIRE

    Kim, Kyu Rang; Yi, Chaeyeon; Lee, Ji-Sun; Jänicke, Britta; Fehrenbach, Ute; Scherer, Dieter

    2014-01-01

    An urban climate analysis system for Seoul was combined with biometeorological models for the spatially distributed assessment of heat stress risks. The Biometeorological Climate impact Assessment System (BioCAS) is based on the Climate Analysis Seoul (CAS) workbench which provides urban planners with gridded data relevant for local climate assessment at 25 m and 5 m spatial resolutions. The influence of building morphology and vegetation on mean radiant temperature Tmrt was simulated by the ...

  9. Assessing Impacts of Climate Change on Food Security Worldwide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenzweig, Cynthia E.; Antle, John; Elliott, Joshua

    2015-01-01

    The combination of a warming Earth and an increasing population will likely strain the world's food systems in the coming decades. Experts involved with the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) focus on quantifying the changes through time. AgMIP, a program begun in 2010, involves about 800 climate scientists, economists, nutritionists, information technology specialists, and crop and livestock experts. In mid-September 2015, the Aspen Global Change Institute convened an AgMIP workshop to draft plans and protocols for assessing global- and regional-scale modeling of crops, livestock, economics, and nutrition across major agricultural regions worldwide. The goal of this Coordinated Global and Regional Integrated Assessments (CGRA) project is to characterize climate effects on large- and small-scale farming systems.

  10. The emissions reduction commitments set out by the U.S. and China are welcome steps towards avoiding dangerous climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Ward, Bob

    2014-01-01

    On 12 November President Obama and China’s President Xi Jinping announced a commitment that the two countries would reduce their greenhouse gas emissions beyond what had been previously promised. Bob Ward looks at the agreement, writing that while it bodes well for next year’s Paris climate change summit, stronger commitments will be needed for emissions to stay below the warming limit.

  11. 76 FR 55673 - Vulnerability Assessments in Support of the Climate Ready Estuaries Program: A Novel Approach...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-09-08

    ... AGENCY Vulnerability Assessments in Support of the Climate Ready Estuaries Program: A Novel Approach... period for the draft documents titled, Vulnerability Assessments in Support of the Climate Ready... Partnership (EPA/600/R-11/ 058a) and Vulnerability Assessments in Support of the Climate Ready...

  12. Impacts of a Warming Arctic. Arctic Climate Impact Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Arctic is warming much more rapidly than previously known, at nearly twice the rate as the rest of the globe, and increasing greenhouse gases from human activities are projected to make it warmer still, according to an unprecedented four-year scientific study of the region conducted by an international team of 300 scientists. At least half the summer sea ice in the Arctic is projected to melt by the end of this century, along with a significant portion of the Greenland Ice Sheet, as the region is projected to warm an additional 4-7C by the year 2100. These changes will have major global impacts, such as contributing to global sea-level rise and intensifying global warming, according to the final report of the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA). The assessment was commissioned by the Arctic Council (a ministerial intergovernmental forum comprised of the eight Arctic countries and six Indigenous Peoples organizations) and the International Arctic Science Committee (an international scientific organization appointed by 18 national academies of science). The assessment's projections are based on a moderate estimate of future emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, and incorporate results from five major global climate models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

  13. Socio-economic Scenarios in Climate Assessments (IC11). Synthesis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    It is widely recognised that projections of social and economic futures are circumscribed by irreducible uncertainties and ignorance. A common analytical response is to develop scenarios that map a range of alternative possible outcomes. The application of scenarios in climate assessments in the Netherlands was investigated in this report, focusing on the use of the socio-economic scenarios 'Welvaart en Leefomgeving' (WLO - The Future of the Dutch Built Environment). This research was carried out within the Climate Changes Spatial Planning (CcSP) programme. WLO scenarios have been applied in climate assessment studies. WLO generates figures and data that are useful. Nevertheless we encountered several CcSP projects that did not apply any socio-economic scenarios, whilst this seemed necessary based on their objectives. In general, climate assessments make little sense if socio-economic developments are not taken into account. Interestingly, some of the studies that did apply socio-economic scenarios, picked only one or two of the scenarios generated by WLO. From a theoretical point of view this selective 'shopping' may lead to a tunnel vision, because it is impossible to estimate which scenario is more probable than the others. At the other hand it is often impractical to explore all four scenarios. The time horizon of WLO was in several cases too short for climate assessments. As it is probable that the structure of society has changed significantly by 2040, it is difficult to quantitatively support the storylines as was done in WLO, because many model assumptions are not correct anymore. Possibly it is better to take a backcasting approach for the second half of the century for the purpose of the CcSP programme. The two case studies described in this report provide examples of good practice that are likely to be useful in future projects that deal with scenarios. In addition, this study produced an interactive website (www.climatescenarios.nl) that provides key

  14. Assessment of the Effects of Climate Change on Federal Hydropower

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sale, Michael J. [M.J. Sale and Associates, Hanson, MA (United States); Shih-Chieh, Kao [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Ashfaq, Moetasim [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Kaiser, Dale P. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Martinez, Rocio [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Webb, Cindy [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Wei, Yaxing [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    2012-10-01

    As directed by Congress in Section 9505 of the SECURE Water Act of 2009 (Public Law 111-11), the US Department of Energy (DOE), in consultation with the federal Power Marketing Administrations (PMAs) and other federal agencies, including federal dam owners, has prepared a comprehensive assessment examining the effects of climate change on water available for hydropower at federal facilities and on the marketing of power from these federal facilities. This Oak Ridge National Laboratory report, referred to as the “9505 Assessment,” describes the technical basis for the report to Congress that was called for in the SECURE Water Act.

  15. Assessing climate benefits of natural gas and coal electricity generation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xiaochun; Myhrvold, Nathan; Caldeira, Ken

    2015-04-01

    A transition from a system of coal electricity generation to near-zero emission electricity generation will be central to any effort to mitigate climate change. Natural gas is increasingly seen as a 'bridge fuel' for transitions form coal to near-zero emission energy sources. However, various studies use different metrics to estimate the climate impact of natural gas utilization, and led to differing conclusions. Thus, there is a need to identify the key factors affecting the climate effects of natural gas and coal electricity production, and to present these climate effects in as clear and transparent a way as possible. Here, we identify power plant efficiency and methane leakage rate as the key factors that explain most of the variance in greenhouse gas emissions by natural gas and coal power plants. We then develop a power plant GHG emission model, apply available life-cycle parameters to calculate associated CO2 and CH4 emissions and assess climate effects. Simple underlying physical changes can be obscured by abstract evaluation metrics, thus we base our discussion on temperature changes over time. We find that, during the period of plant operation, if there is substantial natural gas leakage, natural gas plants can produce greater near-term warming than a coal plant with the same power output. If leakage rates can be made to be low and efficiency high, natural gas plants can produce some reduction in near-term warming. However, without carbon capture and storage natural gas power plants cannot achieve the deep reductions that would be required to avoid substantial contribution to additional global warming. Achieving climate benefits from the use of natural gas depends on building high-efficiency natural gas plants, controlling methane leakage, and on developing a policy environment that assures a transition to future lower-emission technologies. For more information please see http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/9/11/114022/article .

  16. Interactions between chemical and climate stressors: A role for mechanistic toxicology in assessing climate change risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hooper, Michael J.; Ankley, Gerald T.; Cristol, Daniel A.; Maryoung, Lindley A.; Noyes, Pamela D.; Pinkerton, Kent E.

    2013-01-01

    Incorporation of global climate change (GCC) effects into assessments of chemical risk and injury requires integrated examinations of chemical and nonchemical stressors. Environmental variables altered by GCC (temperature, precipitation, salinity, pH) can influence the toxicokinetics of chemical absorption, distribution, metabolism, and excretion as well as toxicodynamic interactions between chemicals and target molecules. In addition, GCC challenges processes critical for coping with the external environment (water balance, thermoregulation, nutrition, and the immune, endocrine, and neurological systems), leaving organisms sensitive to even slight perturbations by chemicals when pushed to the limits of their physiological tolerance range. In simplest terms, GCC can make organisms more sensitive to chemical stressors, while alternatively, exposure to chemicals can make organisms more sensitive to GCC stressors. One challenge is to identify potential interactions between nonchemical and chemical stressors affecting key physiological processes in an organism. We employed adverse outcome pathways, constructs depicting linkages between mechanism-based molecular initiating events and impacts on individuals or populations, to assess how chemical- and climate-specific variables interact to lead to adverse outcomes. Case examples are presented for prospective scenarios, hypothesizing potential chemical–GCC interactions, and retrospective scenarios, proposing mechanisms for demonstrated chemical–climate interactions in natural populations. Understanding GCC interactions along adverse outcome pathways facilitates extrapolation between species or other levels of organization, development of hypotheses and focal areas for further research, and improved inputs for risk and resource injury assessments.

  17. Assessment of Human Health Vulnerability to Climate Variability and Change in Cuba

    OpenAIRE

    Bultó, Paulo Lázaro Ortíz; Rodríguez, Antonio Pérez; Valencia, Alina Rivero; Vega, Nicolás León; Gonzalez, Manuel Díaz; Carrera, Alina Pérez

    2006-01-01

    In this study we assessed the potential effects of climate variability and change on population health in Cuba. We describe the climate of Cuba as well as the patterns of climate-sensitive diseases of primary concern, particularly dengue fever. Analyses of the associations between climatic anomalies and disease patterns highlight current vulnerability to climate variability. We describe current adaptations, including the application of climate predictions to prevent disease outbreaks. Finally...

  18. How dangerous are atomic power stations?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This article takes a look at potential dangers presented by atomic power stations and measures taken to ensure safety. Since the accident in Chernobyl, atomic power stations represent, from the point of view of the general public, a considerable danger. The article analyses the actual risks presented by atom power stations and asks the question, if these risks can even be assessed. Basic considerations on the stability and safety of reactors are discussed. Safety precautions implemented for the world's first nuclear reactor in the USA are discussed. The various safety precautions taken for various types of reactor are examined in detail. Also, the dangers presented by emissions that occur during normal operation are examined. The danger of a nuclear meltdown caused by external factors such as earthquakes, fire, aircraft crashes and terrorist activity is discussed

  19. Climate Change Impact Assessment for Sustainable Water Quality Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ching-Pin Tung

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The goal of sustainable water quality management is to keep total pollutant discharges from exceeding the assimilation capacity of a water body. Climate change may influence streamflows, and further alter assimilation capacity and degrade river sustainability. The purposes of this study are to evaluate the effect of climate change on sustainable water quality management and design an early warning indicator to issue warnings on river sustainability. A systematic assessment procedure is proposed here, including a weather generation model, the streamflow component of GWLF, QUAL2E, and an optimization model. The Touchen creek in Taiwan is selected as the study area. Future climate scenarios derived from projections of four global climate models (GCMs and two pollutant discharge scenarios, as usual and proportional to population, are considered in this study. The results indicate that streamflows may very likely increase in humid seasons and decrease in arid seasons, respectively. The reduction of streamflow in arid seasons may further degrade water quality and assimilation capacity. In order to provide warnings to trigger necessary adaptation strategies, an early warning indicator is designed and its 30-year moving average is calculated. Finally, environmental monitoring systems and methods to prioritize adaptation strategies are discussed for further studies in the future.

  20. EU climate policy up to 2020. An economic impact assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In its fight against climate change the EU is committed to reducing its overall greenhouse gas emissions to at least 20% below 1990 levels by 2020. To meet this commitment, the EU builds on segmented market regulation with an EU-wide cap-and-trade system for emissions from energy-intensive installations (ETS sectors) and additional measures by each EU Member State covering emission sources outside the cap-and-trade system (the non-ETS sector). Furthermore, the EU has launched additional policy measures such as renewable energy subsidies in order to promote compliance with the climate policy target. Basic economic reasoning suggests that emission market segmentation and overlapping regulation can create substantial excess costs if we focus only on the climate policy target. In this paper, we evaluate the economic impacts of EU climate policy based on numerical simulations with a computable general equilibrium model of international trade and energy use. Our results highlight the importance of initial market distortions and imperfections as well as alternative baseline projections for the appropriate assessment of EU compliance cost. (author)

  1. EU climate policy up to 2020: An economic impact assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In its fight against climate change the EU is committed to reducing its overall greenhouse gas emissions to at least 20% below 1990 levels by 2020. To meet this commitment, the EU builds on segmented market regulation with an EU-wide cap-and-trade system for emissions from energy-intensive installations (ETS sectors) and additional measures by each EU Member State covering emission sources outside the cap-and-trade system (the non-ETS sector). Furthermore, the EU has launched additional policy measures such as renewable energy subsidies in order to promote compliance with the climate policy target. Basic economic reasoning suggests that emission market segmentation and overlapping regulation can create substantial excess costs if we focus only on the climate policy target. In this paper, we evaluate the economic impacts of EU climate policy based on numerical simulations with a computable general equilibrium model of international trade and energy use. Our results highlight the importance of initial market distortions and imperfections as well as alternative baseline projections for the appropriate assessment of EU compliance cost.

  2. Economic Impact Assessment of Alternative Climate Policy Strategies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper investigates the world economic implications of climate change policy strategies, especially the evaluation of impacts by an implementation of Clean Development Mechanisms, Joint Implementation and Emissions trading with a world integrated assessment model. Of special interest in this context are the welfare spill over and competitiveness effects that result from diverse climate policy strategies. In particular, this study elaborates and compares multi gas policy strategies and explores the impacts of the inclusion of sinks. Because of the recent decision of an isolated climate policy strategy by the United States of America, we examine the economic impacts of all world regions by a non cooperative and free rider position of the USA. It turns out that Clean Development Mechanisms and Joint Implementation show evidence of improvement in the economic development in the host countries and increase the share of new applied technologies. The decomposition of welfare effects demonstrates that the competitiveness effect including the spill over effects from trade have the strongest importance because of the intense trade relations between countries. Climatic effects have a significant impact within the next 50 years, cause considerable welfare losses to world regions and will intensify if some highly responsible nations like the USA do not reduce their emissions

  3. Assessment of weather indicators for possible climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    From 20 century onwards, a great concern has been expressed regarding global climate change. This study attempts to perform detailed analysis of temperature and precipitation for Karachi city of Pakistan, to assess the possible climate change, using two data sets (51-year data: 1961-2012 and 31-year data: 1981-2012) for different parameters. Trends were generated using linear regression (LR) and Mann-Kendall (MK), which depicted that daily and annual temperatures were increasing, with changes in minimum temperature being more significant than maximum temperature. Analyses also showed increase in extreme temperature at night and during winter, showing that urbanization was a major factor, as the heat from buildings trapped in between dissipates at nights. The daily and monthly precipitation levels increased in contrast to annual precipitation trend, which is justified by the averaged monthly analysis showing that decreasing trends were much more significant than increasing trends. In addition, monthly precipitation showed an increase of 4.3 mm, using LR and MK test. It can be noticed that two extreme winter months (December and January) and two extreme hot months (May and October) received increased rainfall. However, statistical analyses showed overall annual decrease in rainfall. Furthermore, decadal analysis indicated sinusoidal behaviour of change in climate indicators; making climatic change evident but cyclic in nature. (author)

  4. The European programme on climatic change. Assessment and perspectives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    After having recalled how the ratification of the Kyoto protocol became the basis of the European programme for the struggle against climatic change (operation of flexibility mechanisms) and how this programme has been implemented, this report describes the content of the first European Climate Change Programme which notably addressed the energy sector with the promotion of energy efficiency and renewable energies, the transport sector, the industry sector with the implementation of the European trading scheme for CO2 emissions, and a regulation on some fluoridated gases. The second part proposes a contrasted assessment of this first programme. It outlines the difficulties to meet the Kyoto objective and identifies the main reason for that, i.e. the limited abilities of the EU to apply the Kyoto protocol. The third part presents the second programme with an integrated climate-energy policy, the integration of the air transport sector within the ETS, a new strategy of reduction of CO2 emissions by cars, and the definition of a strategy for adaptation to climate change in Europe

  5. Variation of a Lightning NOx Indicator for National Climate Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koshak, William J.; McCaul, Eugene W., Jr.; Peterson, Harold S.; Vant-Hull, Brian

    2014-01-01

    During the past couple of years, an analysis tool was developed by the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) for the National Climate Assessment (NCA) program. The tool monitors and examines changes in lightning characteristics over the conterminous US (CONUS) on a continual basis. In this study, we have expanded the capability of the tool so that it can compute a new climate assessment variable that is called the Lightning NOx Indicator (LNI). Nitrogen oxides (NOx = NO + NO2) are known to indirectly influence our climate, and lightning NOx is the most important source of NOx in the upper troposphere (particularly in the tropics). The LNI is derived using Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) data and is computed by summing up the product of flash area x flash brightness over all flashes that occur in a particular region and period. Therefore, it is suggested that the LNI is a proxy to lightning NOx production. Specifically, larger flash areas are consistent with longer channel length and/or more energetic channels, and hence more NOx production. Brighter flashes are consistent with more energetic channels, and hence more NOx production. The location of the flash within the thundercloud and the optical scattering characteristics of the thundercloud are of course complicating factors. We analyze LIS data for the years 2003-2013 and provide geographical plots of the time-evolution of the LNI in order to determine if there are any significant changes or trends between like seasons, or from year to year.

  6. Dangerous Raw Oysters

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2013-08-05

    Dr. Duc Vugia, chief of the Infectious Diseases Branch at the California Department of Public Health, discusses the dangers of eating raw oysters.  Created: 8/5/2013 by National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases (NCEZID).   Date Released: 8/7/2013.

  7. Trauma is danger

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Porterfield Nancy

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Trauma is one of the leading causes of death in young adult patients. Many pre-clinical and clinical studies attempt to investigate the immunological pathways involved, however the true mediators remain to be elucidated. Herein, we attempt to describe the immunologic response to systemic trauma in the context of the Danger model. Data Sources A literature search using PubMed was used to identify pertinent articles describing the Danger model in relation to trauma. Conclusions Our knowledge of Danger signals in relation to traumatic injury is still limited. Danger/alarmin signals are the most proximal molecules in the immune response that have many possibilities for effector function in the innate and acquired immune systems. Having a full understanding of these molecules and their pathways would give us the ability to intervene at such an early stage and may prove to be more effective in blunting the post-injury inflammatory response unlike previously failed cytokine experiments.

  8. Colored Contact Lens Dangers

    Medline Plus

    Full Text Available ... Halloween Hazard: The Hidden Dangers of Buying Decorative Contact Lenses Without a Prescription Sep. 26, 2013 It started ... vampire eyes to glow-in-the-dark lizard lenses, costume contacts can certainly add a spooky, eye-popping touch. ...

  9. Choosing and using climate change scenarios for ecological-impact assessments and conservation decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amy K. Snover; Nathan J. Mantua; Littell, Jeremy; Michael A. Alexander; Michelle M. McClure; Janet Nye

    2013-01-01

    Increased concern over climate change is demonstrated by the many efforts to assess climate effects and develop adaptation strategies. Scientists, resource managers, and decision makers are increasingly expected to use climate information, but they struggle with its uncertainty. With the current proliferation of climate simulations and downscaling methods, scientifically credible strategies for selecting a subset for analysis and decision making are needed. Drawing on a rich literature in climate science and impact assessment and on experience working with natural resource scientists and decision makers, we devised guidelines for choosing climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment that recognize irreducible uncertainty in climate projections and address common misconceptions about this uncertainty. This approach involves identifying primary local climate drivers by climate sensitivity of the biological system of interest; determining appropriate sources of information for future changes in those drivers; considering how well processes controlling local climate are spatially resolved; and selecting scenarios based on considering observed emission trends, relative importance of natural climate variability, and risk tolerance and time horizon of the associated decision. The most appropriate scenarios for a particular analysis will not necessarily be the most appropriate for another due to differences in local climate drivers, biophysical linkages to climate, decision characteristics, and how well a model simulates the climate parameters and processes of interest. Given these complexities, we recommend interaction among climate scientists, natural and physical scientists, and decision makers throughout the process of choosing and using climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment.

  10. Ice Melt, Sea Level Rise and Superstorms: Evidence from Paleoclimate Data, Climate Modeling, and Modern Observations that 2{\\deg}C Global Warming is Dangerous

    CERN Document Server

    Hansen, James; Hearty, Paul; Ruedy, Reto; Kelley, Maxwell; Masson-Delmotte, Valerie; Russell, Gary; Tselioudis, George; Cao, Junji; Rignot, Eric; Velicogna, Isabella; Tormey, Blair; Donovan, Bailey; Kandiano, Evgeniya; von Schuckmann, Karina; Kharecha, Pushker; Legrande, Allegra N; Bauer, Michael; Lo, Kwok-Wai

    2016-01-01

    We use numerical climate simulations, paleoclimate data, and modern observations to study the effect of growing ice melt from Antarctica and Greenland. Meltwater tends to stabilize the ocean column, inducing amplifying feedbacks that increase subsurface ocean warming and ice shelf melting. Cold meltwater and induced dynamical effects cause ocean surface cooling in the Southern Ocean and North Atlantic, thus increasing Earth's energy imbalance and heat flux into most of the global ocean's surface. Southern Ocean surface cooling, while lower latitudes are warming, increases precipitation on the Southern Ocean, increasing ocean stratification, slowing deepwater formation, and increasing ice sheet mass loss. These feedbacks make ice sheets in contact with the ocean vulnerable to accelerating disintegration. We hypothesize that ice mass loss from the most vulnerable ice, sufficient to raise sea level several meters, is better approximated as exponential than by a more linear response. Doubling times of 10, 20 or 4...

  11. Assessing the impacts of climatic change on mountain water resources.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beniston, Martin; Stoffel, Markus

    2014-09-15

    As the evidence for human induced climate change becomes clearer, so too does the realization that its effects will have impacts on numerous environmental and socio-economic systems. Mountains are recognized as very sensitive physical environments with populations whose histories and current social positions often strain their capacity to accommodate intense and rapid changes to their resource base. It is thus essential to assess the impacts of a changing climate, focusing on the quantity of water originating in mountain regions, particularly where snow and ice melt represent a large streamflow component as well as a local resource in terms of freshwater supply, hydropower generation, or irrigation. Increasing evidence of glacier retreat, permafrost degradation and reduced mountain snowpack has been observed in many regions, thereby suggesting that climate change may seriously affect streamflow regimes. These changes could in turn threaten the availability of water resources for many environmental and economic systems, and exacerbate a range of natural hazards that would compound these impacts. As a consequence, socio-economic structures of downstream living populations would be also impacted, calling for better preparedness and strategies to avoid conflicts of interest between water-dependent economic actors. This paper is thus an introduction to the Special Issue of this journal dedicated to the European Union Seventh Framework Program (EU-FP7) project ACQWA (Assessing Climate Impacts on the Quantity and Quality of WAter), a major European network of scientists that was coordinated by the University of Geneva from 2008 to 2014. The goal of ACQWA has been to address a number of these issues and propose a range of solutions for adaptation to change and to help improve water governance in regions where quantity, seasonality, and perhaps quality of water may substantially change in coming decades. PMID:24360916

  12. A climate robust integrated modelling framework for regional impact assessment of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janssen, Gijs; Bakker, Alexander; van Ek, Remco; Groot, Annemarie; Kroes, Joop; Kuiper, Marijn; Schipper, Peter; van Walsum, Paul; Wamelink, Wieger; Mol, Janet

    2013-04-01

    Decision making towards climate proofing the water management of regional catchments can benefit greatly from the availability of a climate robust integrated modelling framework, capable of a consistent assessment of climate change impacts on the various interests present in the catchments. In the Netherlands, much effort has been devoted to developing state-of-the-art regional dynamic groundwater models with a very high spatial resolution (25x25 m2). Still, these models are not completely satisfactory to decision makers because the modelling concepts do not take into account feedbacks between meteorology, vegetation/crop growth, and hydrology. This introduces uncertainties in forecasting the effects of climate change on groundwater, surface water, agricultural yields, and development of groundwater dependent terrestrial ecosystems. These uncertainties add to the uncertainties about the predictions on climate change itself. In order to create an integrated, climate robust modelling framework, we coupled existing model codes on hydrology, agriculture and nature that are currently in use at the different research institutes in the Netherlands. The modelling framework consists of the model codes MODFLOW (groundwater flow), MetaSWAP (vadose zone), WOFOST (crop growth), SMART2-SUMO2 (soil-vegetation) and NTM3 (nature valuation). MODFLOW, MetaSWAP and WOFOST are coupled online (i.e. exchange information on time step basis). Thus, changes in meteorology and CO2-concentrations affect crop growth and feedbacks between crop growth, vadose zone water movement and groundwater recharge are accounted for. The model chain WOFOST-MetaSWAP-MODFLOW generates hydrological input for the ecological prediction model combination SMART2-SUMO2-NTM3. The modelling framework was used to support the regional water management decision making process in the 267 km2 Baakse Beek-Veengoot catchment in the east of the Netherlands. Computations were performed for regionalized 30-year climate change

  13. Assessing the recent climate change effects on Southern Carpathians permafrost

    Science.gov (United States)

    Popescu, Razvan; Vespremeanu-Stroe, Alfred; Cruceru, Nicolae; Pop, Olimpiu

    2014-05-01

    Most of the rock glaciers from Southern Carpathians (SC) are relict or inactive in the present. A few cases of active or complex (active only across their upper parts) rock glaciers are supposed to exist in Retezat Massif (Vespremeanu-Stroe et al., 2012), but recent growth of vegetation (especially Pynus mugo) on their fronts arises the hypothesis of a contemporary inactivation trend. The present work aims to evaluate how the climate oscillations from the last 70 years impacted SC permafrost. Rock glaciers feedback was assessed using permafrost creep measurements (on two rock glaciers from Retezat Massif) and estimations of the vegetation age installed on the rock glaciers fronts. We assessed the main climatic indices for the alpine area, with a focus on the cold snow free interval (SFI; autumn and early winter) which is the most critical period for permafrost existence as revealed by its correlations with the multiannual variability of the bottom temperature of snow during late winter (BTS) and with the permafrost temperature. We assessed the magnitude of SFI by calculating the freezing index (°Ch) at several locations from SC. The oscillation of the freezing index during the last 70 years was possible using air temperature from high meteorological stations by establishing a relation between ground surface temperatures (GST) monitored in numerous sites from SC and air temperature. The main findings indicate a recent climate warming, since late 1970s, who initiated a gradual rock glaciers inactivation which speeds up in the last decade (2003 - 2012) due to unprecedented low freezing indices. These are supported by the low creep values in the median and terminal parts of monitored rock glaciers comparing with the permafrost rich upper parts and by the young ages of Pynus mugo shrubs (few decades) which colonize the rock glaciers fronts.

  14. A Health Impact Assessment Framework for Assessing Vulnerability and Adaptation Planning for Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Helen Brown

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a detailed description of an approach designed to investigate the application of the Health Impact Assessment (HIA framework to assess the potential health impacts of climate change. A HIA framework has been combined with key climate change terminology and concepts. The fundamental premise of this framework is an understanding of the interactions between people, the environment and climate. The diversity and complexity of these interactions can hinder much needed action on the critical health issue of climate change. The objectives of the framework are to improve the methodology for understanding and assessing the risks associated with potential health impacts of climate change, and to provide decision-makers with information that can facilitate the development of effective adaptation plans. While the process presented here provides guidance with respect to this task it is not intended to be prescriptive. As such, aspects of the process can be amended to suit the scope and available resources of each project. A series of working tables has been developed to assist in the collation of evidence throughout the process. The framework has been tested in a number of locations including Western Australia, Solomon Islands, Vanuatu and Nauru.

  15. Volcanic explosions and climatic change - A theoretical assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pollack, J. B.; Toon, O. B.; Summers, A.; Baldwin, B.; Sagan, C.; Van Camp, W.

    1976-01-01

    A theoretical assessment is presented of the influence of volcanic activity on the climate. The methodology of radiative transfer calculations is described and the sources of the adopted parameters are considered. The dependence of various quantities of interest is plotted as a function of the change in the optical depth of the stratosphere at a reference wavelength. An investigation is conducted concerning the increase in optical depth produced by volcanic explosions. An estimate is obtained regarding the magnitude of the mean surface temperature change resulting from the added aerosols.

  16. Integrated assessment of socio-economic risks of dangerous hydrological phenomena in Russian coastal zones of the Baltic, the Azov and the Black Seas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zemtsov, Stepan; Baburin, Vyacheslav; Goryachko, Mariya; Krylenko, Inna; Yumina, Natalya

    2013-04-01

    In 2012, an integrated damage from floods in Russia was about 1 billion euros, floods have caused the death of over 200 people. It is one of the most pressing scientific topics, but most of the works devoted to natural risks assessment. The main purpose of this work is to estimate the influence of dangerous hydrological phenomena (e.g. floods, underflooding and surges) on society, using vulnerability and damage assessment techniques. The objectives are to examine domestic and foreign methodologies, to integrate them and to test on specific Russian territory. Foreign training was organized at UNU-EHS (Bonn, Germany). Three different methods were used for each stage of research. The first part of the research was devoted to estimation of potential damage for population and economy of the Baltic Sea coastal zones. The authors used a model, which takes into account direct damage (loss of life, destruction of buildings, etc.) as well as indirect effects of the first, second, etc. orders (loss of profits, loss of the budget, etc.). A database, based on satellite images, maps, yearbooks of Russian Statistical Service and reports of entities, has been prepared. The database is a matrix, in which the rows are coastal zones, and the columns are given indicators: number of people in port areas (people), cost of fixed assets (million rubles), investment (million rubles.), revenue / profit (million rubles.), etc. The authors identified zones with different depth of flooding, using satellite images, and calculated the direct and indirect costs, using the methodology of EMERCOM. Maximum direct potential damage for the Baltic coast is about 15,7 billion euros, but indirect damage is more than 25,5 billion euros. The second part of research was devoted to vulnerability assessment of coastal municipalities of Krasnodar Region. A database, as a matrix of 252 parameters from 2007 to 2009 for 14 coastal municipalities, was developed. The parameters were divided into several blocks

  17. Agent Model Development for Assessing Climate-Induced Geopolitical Instability.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boslough, Mark B.; Backus, George A.

    2005-12-01

    We present the initial stages of development of new agent-based computational methods to generate and test hypotheses about linkages between environmental change and international instability. This report summarizes the first year's effort of an originally proposed three-year Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project. The preliminary work focused on a set of simple agent-based models and benefited from lessons learned in previous related projects and case studies of human response to climate change and environmental scarcity. Our approach was to define a qualitative model using extremely simple cellular agent models akin to Lovelock's Daisyworld and Schelling's segregation model. Such models do not require significant computing resources, and users can modify behavior rules to gain insights. One of the difficulties in agent-based modeling is finding the right balance between model simplicity and real-world representation. Our approach was to keep agent behaviors as simple as possible during the development stage (described herein) and to ground them with a realistic geospatial Earth system model in subsequent years. This work is directed toward incorporating projected climate data--including various C02 scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Third Assessment Report--and ultimately toward coupling a useful agent-based model to a general circulation model.3

  18. A new climate dataset for systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of global warming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Heinke

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available In the ongoing political debate on climate change, global mean temperature change (ΔTglob has become the yardstick by which mitigation costs, impacts from unavoided climate change, and adaptation requirements are discussed. For a scientifically informed discourse along these lines, systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of ΔTglob are required. The current availability of climate change scenarios constrains this type of assessment to a narrow range of temperature change and/or a reduced ensemble of climate models. Here, a newly composed dataset of climate change scenarios is presented that addresses the specific requirements for global assessments of climate change impacts as a function of ΔTglob. A pattern-scaling approach is applied to extract generalised patterns of spatially explicit change in temperature, precipitation and cloudiness from 19 Atmosphere–Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs. The patterns are combined with scenarios of global mean temperature increase obtained from the reduced-complexity climate model MAGICC6 to create climate scenarios covering warming levels from 1.5 to 5 degrees above pre-industrial levels around the year 2100. The patterns are shown to sufficiently maintain the original AOGCMs' climate change properties, even though they, necessarily, utilise a simplified relationships between ΔTglob and changes in local climate properties. The dataset (made available online upon final publication of this paper facilitates systematic analyses of climate change impacts as it covers a wider and finer-spaced range of climate change scenarios than the original AOGCM simulations.

  19. Health impact assessment of global climate change: expanding on comparative risk assessment approaches for policy making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patz, Jonathan; Campbell-Lendrum, Diarmid; Gibbs, Holly; Woodruff, Rosalie

    2008-01-01

    Climate change is projected to have adverse impacts on public health. Cobenefits may be possible from more upstream mitigation of greenhouse gases causing climate change. To help measure such cobenefits alongside averted disease-specific risks, a health impact assessment (HIA) framework can more comprehensively serve as a decision support tool. HIA also considers health equity, clearly part of the climate change problem. New choices for energy must be made carefully considering such effects as additional pressure on the world's forests through large-scale expansion of soybean and oil palm plantations, leading to forest clearing, biodiversity loss and disease emergence, expulsion of subsistence farmers, and potential increases in food prices and emissions of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. Investigators must consider the full range of policy options, supported by more comprehensive, flexible, and transparent assessment methods. PMID:18173382

  20. Sources of increased danger

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The present and future facts of absolute liability under specific laws will have to be supplemented by the legislator, and the claims for damages will have to be limited to physical and material damage. The formulation should be about as follows: 'If a person is killed by a source of increased danger or damage done to his/her body or health or material damage done, the owner of that source will be liable for payment of damages'. A standard of this kind has good chances of being realized and applied in German or even European technical and social developments of the future. The general clause of absolute reliability for sources of increased danger depends on the judge's decision and models so far, also of other countries, give no cause to doubt this. (orig./HP)

  1. Regional Risk Assessment for climate change impacts on coastal aquifers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iyalomhe, F; Rizzi, J; Pasini, S; Torresan, S; Critto, A; Marcomini, A

    2015-12-15

    Coastal aquifers have been identified as particularly vulnerable to impacts on water quantity and quality due to the high density of socio-economic activities and human assets in coastal regions and to the projected rising sea levels, contributing to the process of saltwater intrusion. This paper proposes a Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology integrated with a chain of numerical models to evaluate potential climate change-related impacts on coastal aquifers and linked natural and human systems (i.e., wells, river, agricultural areas, lakes, forests and semi-natural environments). The RRA methodology employs Multi Criteria Decision Analysis methods and Geographic Information Systems functionalities to integrate heterogeneous spatial data on hazard, susceptibility and risk for saltwater intrusion and groundwater level variation. The proposed approach was applied on the Esino River basin (Italy) using future climate hazard scenarios based on a chain of climate, hydrological, hydraulic and groundwater system models running at different spatial scales. Models were forced with the IPCC SRES A1B emission scenario for the period 2071-2100 over four seasons (i.e., winter, spring, summer and autumn). Results indicate that in future seasons, climate change will cause few impacts on the lower Esino River valley. Groundwater level decrease will have limited effects: agricultural areas, forests and semi-natural environments will be at risk only in a region close to the coastline which covers less than 5% of the total surface of the considered receptors; less than 3.5% of the wells will be exposed in the worst scenario. Saltwater intrusion impact in future scenarios will be restricted to a narrow region close to the coastline (only few hundred meters), and thus it is expected to have very limited effects on the Esino coastal aquifer with no consequences on the considered natural and human systems. PMID:26282744

  2. TIME-2, Radioactive Waste Disposal Climatic Change Risk Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1 - Description of program or function: TIME2 simulates the long-term evolution burial facilities for radioactive waste disposal, and forms part of a development programme in time-dependent probabilistic risk analysis. Environmental change in the model is essentially driven by changes in climatic conditions based on the geological record of climate changes and the astronomical or 'Milankovitch' theory of climates. The environment is modelled up to the first glaciation from the present. Processes brought on by climatic change such as glacial advance, sea-level changes, water budget, and erosion effects are considered, as well as human intrusion effects, each as a separate sub-model within the overall framework of the model. 2 - Method of solution: TIME2 is a Monte Carlo simulation code which models environmental change by random sampling of the parameters which are anticipated to vary with time within quantifiable limits. Probabilistic distribution functions for these parameters are provided by the user as input, and values are then sampled during each simulation of the code. Sampling occurs several times within each defined climate state type into which the changing climatic conditions from the present to the next Ice Age are divided (Temperate, Boreal, Tundra and Glacial). In addition a Savannah climate is modelled in the near future (500-1500 years) if the 'greenhouse effect' is to be simulated). The sampling of these environmental parameters occurs at specific time steps during a simulation which correspond either to the times of transition from one climate state to another, or to fixed user-specified times. The climate state durations are themselves sampled at the start of each simulation. Occurrences of human intrusion events are sampled separately for each time step and their effects assessed. A particular case involving input values which simulate conditions for example for a given site and repository, would typically include several thousand simulations so

  3. Dangerous Energy : Atomic

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This book describes the disaster in Chernobyl, Russia. Through the accident It reveals the dangerous nuclear energy with a lot of problems on the nuclear power plants which includes four reasons about propelling development of atomic and criticism about that, eight reasons against development of atomic, the problem in 11 -12 nuclear power plant, the movement of antagonism towards nuclear waste in Anmyon island, cases of antinuclear in foreign country and building of new energy system.

  4. Semantic Gaps Are Dangerous

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ejstrup, Michael; le Fevre Jakobsen, Bjarne

    2014-01-01

    constantely. Recently both media and migrations have accelerated considerably in speed. In Europe and thus in Denmark homogenous populations have developed into multicultural ones. Language has not kept pace with this development, and millions of people have to adapt to this new situation with lightning speed...... tools at hand. But we have not these tools of communication, and we are in a situation today where media and specially digital and social media, supported by new possibilities of migration, create dangerous situations....

  5. The dangerous story

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This book describes of the dangerous accident i Chernobyl, which includes what happen in Chernobyl, report of the soviet union and secret conversation between IAEA and Kremlin. It deals with presupposition of disasters and reality like atomic soldier's leukemia and pollution in West Europe and Poland Next, it reports of a great accident caused defect of nuclear power plant in Japan and nuclear power industry and stagnation of journalism.

  6. A Dangerous Awakening

    OpenAIRE

    Enwerem, Iheanyi M.; Ikime, Obaro

    2013-01-01

    Students of religion and interested observers of politics in Africa will cherish this book for providing a thorough analysis of the origin and politics of the Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN). A Dangerous Awakening chronicles the religious clashes in Nigeria, and shows how religion has been used in the struggle for political power. Dr. Enwerem bases his study on interviews and unpublished memos, papers and letters not otherwise accessible to the public. This book is an invaluable contri...

  7. From Global Climate Model Projections to Local Impacts Assessments: Analyses in Support of Planning for Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Snover, A. K.; Littell, J. S.; Mantua, N. J.; Salathe, E. P.; Hamlet, A. F.; McGuire Elsner, M.; Tohver, I.; Lee, S.

    2010-12-01

    Assessing and planning for the impacts of climate change require regionally-specific information. Information is required not only about projected changes in climate but also the resultant changes in natural and human systems at the temporal and spatial scales of management and decision making. Therefore, climate impacts assessment typically results in a series of analyses, in which relatively coarse-resolution global climate model projections of changes in regional climate are downscaled to provide appropriate input to local impacts models. This talk will describe recent examples in which coarse-resolution (~150 to 300km) GCM output was “translated” into information requested by decision makers at relatively small (watershed) and large (multi-state) scales using regional climate modeling, statistical downscaling, hydrologic modeling, and sector-specific impacts modeling. Projected changes in local air temperature, precipitation, streamflow, and stream temperature were developed to support Seattle City Light’s assessment of climate change impacts on hydroelectric operations, future electricity load, and resident fish populations. A state-wide assessment of climate impacts on eight sectors (agriculture, coasts, energy, forests, human health, hydrology and water resources, salmon, and urban stormwater infrastructure) was developed for Washington State to aid adaptation planning. Hydro-climate change scenarios for approximately 300 streamflow locations in the Columbia River basin and selected coastal drainages west of the Cascades were developed in partnership with major water management agencies in the Pacific Northwest to allow planners to consider how hydrologic changes may affect management objectives. Treatment of uncertainty in these assessments included: using “bracketing” scenarios to describe a range of impacts, using ensemble averages to characterize the central estimate of future conditions (given an emissions scenario), and explicitly assessing

  8. A Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment of California's At-Risk Birds

    OpenAIRE

    Thomas Gardali; Seavy, Nathaniel E.; DiGaudio, Ryan T.; Comrack, Lyann A.

    2012-01-01

    Conservationists must develop new strategies and adapt existing tools to address the consequences of anthropogenic climate change. To support statewide climate change adaptation, we developed a framework for assessing climate change vulnerability of California's at-risk birds and integrating it into the existing California Bird Species of Special Concern list. We defined climate vulnerability as the amount of evidence that climate change will negatively impact a population. We quantified clim...

  9. Assessment of governance strategies for climate adaptation in Flanders/Belgium

    OpenAIRE

    Verhofstede, Björn; Leinfelder, Hans; Allaert, Georges

    2010-01-01

    Climate discourse in recent decades has mainly focused on the issue of mitigation. Through a better understanding and assessment of climate challenges, adaptation arises as a complementary strategy to mitigation. Vulnerability in relation to climate change is seen as a function of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. Adaptation can influence sensitivity while mitigating impacts on the exposure to climate change. (IPCC, 2007). Adaptation requires space for climate on a local scale and ...

  10. La mesure du danger

    CERN Document Server

    Manceron, Vanessa; Revet, Sandrine

    2014-01-01

    La mesure du danger permet d’explorer des dangers de nature aussi diverse que la délinquance, la pollution, l’écueil maritime, la maladie ou l’attaque sorcellaire, l’extinction d’espèces animales ou végétales, voire de la Planète tout entière. Au croisement de la sociologie, de l’anthropologie et de l’histoire, les différents articles analysent les pratiques concrètes de mesure pour tenter de comprendre ce qui se produit au cours de l’opération d’évaluation du danger sans préjuger de la nature de celui-ci. L’anthropologie a contribué à la réflexion sur l’infortune en s’intéressant aux temporalités de l’après : maladies, catastrophes, pandémies, etc. et en cherchant à rendre compte de l’expérience des victimes, de leur vie ordinaire bouleversée, de la recomposition du quotidien. Elle s’intéresse aussi aux autres types de mesures, les savoirs incorporés, qui reposent sur l’odorat, la vue ou le toucher et ceux qui ressortent d’une épistémologie « non ...

  11. Assessment of impacts on ground water resources in Libya and vulnerability to climate change

    OpenAIRE

    S. P. Bindra; Hamid, A; S. Abulifa; H.S. Al Reiani; Hammuda Khalifa Abdalla

    2014-01-01

    This paper is designed to present the likely impact of climate change on groundwater resources in general and Libya in particular. State of the art reviews on recent research studies, and methodology to assess the impact of climate change on groundwater resources shows that climate change poses uncertainties to the supply and management of water resources. It outlines to demonstrate that how climate change impact assessment plays a vital role in forming the sensitive water balance rarely achi...

  12. Fisheries and Oceans Canada climate change risk assessment initiative

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper provided an overview of an initiative undertaken by the Department of Fisheries and Oceans (DFO) Canada to assess the risks associated with climate change on Canada's waterways and aquatic resources over the next 10 to 20 years. It discussed the risk associated with changes in water temperature and level in increasing the vulnerability of fish stocks and ecosystems. A decrease in water levels is also an issue as it will render current infrastructure ineffective. Storm surges can also have an impact on coastal community infrastructure. The purpose of the assessment was to provide DFO management with a structured understanding of the major climate change factors that pose risks to DFO's operations and to establish priorities in identifying appropriate risk mitigation responses. The presentation discussed the different stages of the initiative (planning, identification and evaluation of risk, validation, and reporting), its' challenges and benefits, as well as lessons learned from this exercises. Lessons learned from the project are as follows: get senior level buy-in from the outset; engage the right people; make it easy for others to be engaged; validate results and risk management response; be ready for surprises; and build in some flexibility to the process. figs

  13. Assessing risks of climate variability and climate change for Indonesian rice agriculture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naylor, Rosamond L; Battisti, David S; Vimont, Daniel J; Falcon, Walter P; Burke, Marshall B

    2007-05-01

    El Niño events typically lead to delayed rainfall and decreased rice planting in Indonesia's main rice-growing regions, thus prolonging the hungry season and increasing the risk of annual rice deficits. Here we use a risk assessment framework to examine the potential impact of El Niño events and natural variability on rice agriculture in 2050 under conditions of climate change, with a focus on two main rice-producing areas: Java and Bali. We select a 30-day delay in monsoon onset as a threshold beyond which significant impact on the country's rice economy is likely to occur. To project the future probability of monsoon delay and changes in the annual cycle of rainfall, we use output from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change AR4 suite of climate models, forced by increasing greenhouse gases, and scale it to the regional level by using empirical downscaling models. Our results reveal a marked increase in the probability of a 30-day delay in monsoon onset in 2050, as a result of changes in the mean climate, from 9-18% today (depending on the region) to 30-40% at the upper tail of the distribution. Predictions of the annual cycle of precipitation suggest an increase in precipitation later in the crop year (April-June) of approximately 10% but a substantial decrease (up to 75% at the tail) in precipitation later in the dry season (July-September). These results indicate a need for adaptation strategies in Indonesian rice agriculture, including increased investments in water storage, drought-tolerant crops, crop diversification, and early warning systems. PMID:17483453

  14. An Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change in India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nair, K. S.

    2009-09-01

    adaptation, mitigation and post-hazard recovery and resettlement measures. Providing basic necessities such as water, food and power, maintaining public health, implementing protective measures in the coastal zones and modifications in the urban infrastructure, especially in the coastal megacities become expensive. Impact of extremes on rails, roads and building are also becoming a major issue in the coastal zones and urban centres. Industrial sector is facing a threat from the falling reliable supply of water and power. However, procedure for the implementation of the strategies to mitigate the climate change impact and of the policy for the adaptation to climate change is slow. There are several hurdles for this, including various ecological, socio-economic, technical and political issues, alterations of the physical environment, inability of certain habitats and species to adapt to a new environment, abject poverty, lack of awareness, and the inefficient administrative mechanism. A comprehensive assessment of the shifts in regional climate and the impact of climate change on different facets of life in India, and of the current strategies and polices to face such challenges is made in this study. Suggestions for the improvement of the climate policy and adaptation strategy have been provided.

  15. Anticipatory flood risk assessment under climate change scenarios: from assessment to adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neuhold, C.; Hogl, K.; Seher, W.; Nachtnebel, H. P.; Scherhaufer, P.; Nordbeck, R.; Löschner, L.

    2012-04-01

    According to the Centre for Research on Epidemiology Disasters, floods are the type of natural disasters that affected the highest number of people from 1900 to 2008 worldwide. Specifically, Austria suffered from heavy floods in recent years, affecting thousands of people and causing billions of Euro in economic losses. Although there is yet no proof that these accumulated extreme events are a direct consequence of climate change, they may indicate what can be expected. Currently, comprehensive climate modelling research is being conducted for Austria that may lay the foundation for enhanced climate impact assessments (regional climate modelling under consideration of different global models and varying scenarios). However, the models so far have neither special focus on Austria nor a distinct definition of boundary conditions for Austria. Therefore, results of climate models are considered as too unreliable and inconsistent for predicting changes in flood characteristics, especially at a regional to local scale. As a consequence, adaptation strategies have to be derived from integrated impact analyses that are based on dissecting mechanisms and drivers for changes and not only on the dimension of climate change. This paper discusses a dynamic flood risk assessment methodology considering potential spatial and temporal developments of hazard and vulnerability under climate change scenarios. The approach integrates quantifiable results from assessments of hazard, exposure and sensitivity and the qualitative, interview based, assessment of adaptive capacities. Flood risk assessment will be conducted for the current state in Austria and enhanced by potential (1) flood scenarios increased by a climate change allowance (2) demographic development scenarios (3) land-use change scenarios and (4) adaptation policy assessment to identify regions especially prone to flooding. Comparing the current state with various anticipatory hazard and vulnerability scenarios provides

  16. Parametric assessment of climate change impacts of automotive material substitution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geyer, Roland

    2008-09-15

    Quantifying the net climate change impact of automotive material substitution is not a trivial task. It requires the assessment of the mass reduction potential of automotive materials, the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from their production and recycling, and their impact on GHG emissions from vehicle use. The model presented in this paper is based on life cycle assessment (LCA) and completely parameterized, i.e., its computational structure is separated from the required input data, which is not traditionally done in LCAs. The parameterization increases scientific rigor and transparency of the assessment methodology, facilitates sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of the results, and also makes it possible to compare different studies and explain their disparities. The state of the art of the modeling methodology is reviewed and advanced. Assessment of the GHG emission impacts of material recycling through consequential system expansion shows that our understanding of this issue is still incomplete. This is a critical knowledge gap since a case study shows thatfor materials such as aluminum, the GHG emission impacts of material production and recycling are both of the same size as the use phase savings from vehicle mass reduction. PMID:18853818

  17. The use of multi-model ensembles from global climate models for impact assessment of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Semenov, M. A.

    2009-04-01

    The IPCC 4th Assessment Report was based on large datasets of projections of future climate produced by eighteen modelling groups worldwide who performed a set of coordinated climate experiments in which numerous global climate models (GCMs) have been run for a common set of experiments and various emission scenarios. These datasets are freely available form the IPCC Data Distribution Centre (www.ipcc-data.org) and can be used by the research community to assess the impact of changing climate on various systems of interest including impacts on agricultural crops and natural ecosystems, biodiversity and plant diseases. Multi-model ensembles (MME) emphasize the uncertainty in climate predictions resulting from structural differences in the global climate model design as well as uncertainty to variations of initial conditions or model parameters. This paper describes a methodology based on a stochastic weather generator for linking MME of predictions from GCMs with process-based impact models to assess impacts of climate change on biological or ecological systems. The latest version of the LARS-WG weather generator is described which allows seamlessly generating daily site-specific climate scenarios worldwide by utilising local daily weather and MME from GCMs. Examples of impacts on wheat in Europe, based on MME, are discussed, including changes in severity of drought and heat stress around flowering.

  18. Dangerousness and mental health policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hewitt, J L

    2008-04-01

    Mental health policy development in the UK has become increasingly dominated by the assumed need to prevent violence and alleviate public concerns about the dangers of the mentally ill living in the community. Risk management has become the expected focus of contemporary mental health services, and responsibility has increasingly been devolved to individual service professionals when systems fail to prevent violence. This paper analyses the development of mental health legislation and its impact on services users and mental health professionals at the micro level of service delivery. Historical precedence, media influence and public opinion are explored, and the reification of risk is questioned in practical and ethical terms. The government's newest proposals for compulsory treatment in the community are discussed in terms of practical efficacy and therapeutic impact. Dangerousness is far from being an objectively observable phenomenon arising from clinical pathology, but is a formulation of what is partially knowable through social analysis and unknowable by virtue of its situation in individual psychic motivation. Risk assessment can therefore never be completely accurate, and the solution of a 'better safe than sorry' approach to mental health policy is ethically and pragmatically flawed. PMID:18307647

  19. A New Paradigm for Assessing the Role of Agriculture in the Climate System and in Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pielke, Roger A., Sr.; Adegoke, Jimmy O.; Chase, Thomas N.; Marshall, Curtis H.; Matsui, Toshihisa; Niyogi, Dev

    2007-01-01

    This paper discusses the diverse climate forcings that impact agricultural systems, and contrasts the current paradigm of using global models downscaled to agricultural areas (a top-down approach) with a new paradigm that first assesses the vulnerability of agricultural activities to the spectrum of environmental risk including climate (a bottom-up approach). To illustrate the wide spectrum of climate forcings, regional climate forcings are presented including land-use/land-cover change and the influence of aerosols on radiative and biogeochemical fluxes and cloud/precipitation processes, as well as how these effects can be teleconnected globally. Examples are presented of the vulnerability perspective, along with a small survey of the perceived drought impacts in a local area, in which a wide range of impacts for the same precipitation deficits are found. This example illustrates why agricultural assessments of risk to climate change and variability and of other environmental risks should start with a bottom-up perspective.

  20. Assessing climate change mitigation technology interventions by international institutions

    OpenAIRE

    Coninck, H.C. de; Puig, D.

    2015-01-01

    Accelerating the international use of climate mitigation technologies is key if effortsto curb climate change are to succeed, especially in developing countries, where weakdomestic technological innovation systems constrain the uptake of climate change mitigationtechnologies. Several intergovernmental agencies have set up specific programmes to supportthe diffusion of climate mitigation technologies. Using a simplified technological innovationsystem-based framework, this paper aims to systema...

  1. Transport of dangerous goods through road tunnels

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, N O; Lacroix, Didier; Amundsen, F.H.;

    1999-01-01

    A paper which describes the work of an OECD research group. The group has suggested a grouping of dangerous materials, a quantitative risk assessment model and a decision support model which should allow tunnel operators to determine if a given material should be allowed throug a given tunnel...

  2. Reducing Nuclear Dangers

    OpenAIRE

    Bunn, Matthew G.

    2012-01-01

    Ron Rosenbaum wants us to be worried. His book How the End Begins: The Road to a Nuclear World War III is intended as an urgent warning that the terrifying dangers of nuclear weapons did not disappear when the Cold War ended two decades ago. There are still many thousands of nuclear weapons in the world—about 95% of them in the U.S. and Russian arsenals—and thousands of them are constantly poised for launch within minutes.

  3. Dangers and Pleasures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Järvinen, Margaretha Maria; Østergaard, Jeanette

    2011-01-01

    This is a study of young people’s conceptions of illegal drug use as dangerous and/or pleasurable and an analysis of the relationship between attitudes to drugs, drinking, friends’ reported drug use and own experience with drug use and drinking. The article applies a mixed methods approach using......-old Danes: the anti-drug position, usually held by youths who do not use illegal drugs and do not have drug-using friends; the ambivalent position, occupied by non-users who report that they have drug-using friends; the transitory position, held by cannabis users, some of whom express positive attitudes to...

  4. Climate Hazard Assessment for Stakeholder Adaptation Planning in New York City

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horton, Radley M.; Gornitz, Vivien; Bader, Daniel A.; Ruane, Alex C.; Goldberg, Richard; Rosenzweig, Cynthia

    2011-01-01

    This paper describes a time-sensitive approach to climate change projections, developed as part of New York City's climate change adaptation process, that has provided decision support to stakeholders from 40 agencies, regional planning associations, and private companies. The approach optimizes production of projections given constraints faced by decision makers as they incorporate climate change into long-term planning and policy. New York City stakeholders, who are well-versed in risk management, helped pre-select the climate variables most likely to impact urban infrastructure, and requested a projection range rather than a single 'most likely' outcome. The climate projections approach is transferable to other regions and consistent with broader efforts to provide climate services, including impact, vulnerability, and adaptation information. The approach uses 16 Global Climate Models (GCMs) and three emissions scenarios to calculate monthly change factors based on 30-year average future time slices relative to a 30- year model baseline. Projecting these model mean changes onto observed station data for New York City yields dramatic changes in the frequency of extreme events such as coastal flooding and dangerous heat events. Based on these methods, the current 1-in-10 year coastal flood is projected to occur more than once every 3 years by the end of the century, and heat events are projected to approximately triple in frequency. These frequency changes are of sufficient magnitude to merit consideration in long-term adaptation planning, even though the precise changes in extreme event frequency are highly uncertain

  5. Health impact assessment of climate change in Bangladesh

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Global climate change (GCC) may have serious and irreversible impacts. Improved methods are needed to predict and quantify health impacts, so that appropriate risk management strategies can be focused on vulnerable areas. The disability-adjusted life year (DALY) is proposed as an effective tool in environmental health impact assessment (HIA). The DALY accounts for years of life lost to premature death and/or morbidity. Both the DALY and the determinants-of-health approach are applied to HIA of GCC in Bangladesh. Based on historical data, a major storm event may result in approximately 290 DALY per 1000 population, including both deaths and injuries, compared to a current all-cause rate of about 280 per 1000 in the region. A more precise result would require a large input of data; however, this level of analysis may be sufficient to rank risks, and to motivate and target risk management efforts

  6. An Assessment of the Investment Climate in Botswana, Volume 2. Detailed Results and Econometric Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    World Bank

    2007-01-01

    The objective of the Botswana Investment Climate Assessment (ICA) is to evaluate the investment climate in Botswana in all its operational dimensions and promote policies to strengthen the private sector. The investment climate is made up of the many location specific factors that shape the opportunities and incentives for firms to invest productively, create jobs, and expand. These factor...

  7. An Assessment of the Investment Climate in Botswana : Volume I, Main Report

    OpenAIRE

    World Bank

    2007-01-01

    The objective of the Botswana Investment Climate Assessment (ICA) is to evaluate the investment climate in Botswana in all its operational dimensions and promote policies to strengthen the private sector. The investment climate is made up of the many location specific factors that shape the opportunities and incentives for firms to invest productively, create jobs, and expand. These factor...

  8. U.S. NATIONAL ASSESSMENT OF POTENTIAL CONSEQUENCES OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE

    Science.gov (United States)

    The U.S. National Assessment of Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change will provide a detailed understanding of the consequences of climate change for the nation and will examine the possible coping mechanisms thatexist to adapt to climate change. This assessme...

  9. Climate change adaptation impact cost assessment in France. Second phase report. September 2009

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Firstly, this report presents the context and challenges of works dealing with climate change adaptation assessment: observations and perspectives of climate change, concepts and definitions of adaptation to climate change, adaptation within national, European and international context, objectives and organisation of the France's inter-departmental Group. It describes the chosen methodology: hypothesis, methodological tools (climate model), bibliographical tool, and heat wave counting methodology. It discusses the present results, outlines the encountered difficulties and discusses the perspectives for future work

  10. Integrating Water into an Economic Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Egypt

    OpenAIRE

    Yates, D

    1996-01-01

    Recent research indicates that larger countries, with multiple agro-climatic zones, have the capacity to adjust to marginal climate changes which could occur over the next century. However, in countries with fewer adaptation options and with increasing dependency on imports to meet growing domestic demands, climate change might have significant impacts. To date, little has been done on assessing integrated impacts of climate change in developing countries. This motivates the need for imp...

  11. Assessment of urgent impacts of greenhouse gas emissions—the climate tipping potential (CTP)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Susanne Vedel; Hauschild, Michael Zwicky; Nielsen, Per H.

    2014-01-01

    The impact of anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions on climate change receives much focus today. This impact is however often considered only in terms of global warming potential (GWP), which does not take into account the need for staying below climatic target levels, in order to avoid...... climate tipping potential (CTP) of GHG emissions relative to a climatic target level. The climate tipping impact category should be seen as complementary to the global warming impact category.The CTP of a GHG emission is expressed as the emission’s impact divided by the ‘capacity’ of the atmosphere for...... climate tipping impact category for assessing climate change impacts in LCA, complimentary to the global warming impact category which shall still represent the long-term climate change impacts, is considered to improve the value of LCA as a tool for decision support for climate change mitigation....

  12. Global assessment of experimental climate warming on tundra vegetation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Elmendorf, Sarah C.; Henry, Gregory H.R.; Hollister, Robert D.;

    2012-01-01

    Understanding the sensitivity of tundra vegetation to climate warming is critical to forecasting future biodiversity and vegetation feedbacks to climate. In situ warming experiments accelerate climate change on a small scale to forecast responses of local plant communities. Limitations of this ap...

  13. Is Brain Emulation Dangerous?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eckersley, Peter; Sandberg, Anders

    2013-12-01

    Brain emulation is a hypothetical but extremely transformative technology which has a non-zero chance of appearing during the next century. This paper investigates whether such a technology would also have any predictable characteristics that give it a chance of being catastrophically dangerous, and whether there are any policy levers which might be used to make it safer. We conclude that the riskiness of brain emulation probably depends on the order of the preceding research trajectory. Broadly speaking, it appears safer for brain emulation to happen sooner, because slower CPUs would make the technology`s impact more gradual. It may also be safer if brains are scanned before they are fully understood from a neuroscience perspective, thereby increasing the initial population of emulations, although this prediction is weaker and more scenario-dependent. The risks posed by brain emulation also seem strongly connected to questions about the balance of power between attackers and defenders in computer security contests. If economic property rights in CPU cycles1 are essentially enforceable, emulation appears to be comparatively safe; if CPU cycles are ultimately easy to steal, the appearance of brain emulation is more likely to be a destabilizing development for human geopolitics. Furthermore, if the computers used to run emulations can be kept secure, then it appears that making brain emulation technologies ―open‖ would make them safer. If, however, computer insecurity is deep and unavoidable, openness may actually be more dangerous. We point to some arguments that suggest the former may be true, tentatively implying that it would be good policy to work towards brain emulation using open scientific methodology and free/open source software codebases

  14. Assessing the Crop Growing Period According to the Climate Change Forecasts for Marina Baixa (SE Spain)

    OpenAIRE

    Herrera, Mario; Moutahir, Hassane; González, Carlos Alberto; Chirino Miranda, Esteban; Bellot Abad, Juan Francisco

    2015-01-01

    The present work aims to assess the likely effects of climate change on the length of growing period (LGP) of crops in Marina Baixa (SE, Spain). LGP can be assessed by a balance between preci- pitation and reference evapotranspiration. Less rainfall and an increased evapotranspiration, forecast by Global Climate Models (GCMs), are considered as a high risk for agriculture. This area is located in a semiarid climate region where water is a very limited resource. It is a typical example of area...

  15. Climate change health assessment: a novel approach for Alaska Native communities

    OpenAIRE

    Brubaker, Michael Y.; Bell, Jacob N.; Berner, James E.; Warren, John A.

    2012-01-01

    Objectives. Develop a process for assessing climate change impacts on public health that identifies climate-health vulnerabilities and mechanisms and encourages adaptation. Study design. Multi-stakeholder, participatory, qualitative research. Methods. A Climate Change Health Assessment (CCHA) was developed that involved 4 steps: (1) scoping to describe local conditions and engage stakeholders; (2) surveying to collect descriptive and quantitative data; (3) analysis to evaluate the data; and (...

  16. STUDY ON FOREST FIRE DANGER MODEL WITHREMOTE SENSING BASED ON GIS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2000-01-01

    Forest fire is one of the main natural hazards because of its fierce destructiveness. Various researches on fire real-time monitoring, behavior simulation and loss assessment have been carried out in many countries. As fire prevention is probably the most efficient means for protecting forests, suitable methods should be developed for estimating the fire danger. Fire danger is composed of ecological, human and climatic factors. Therefore, the systematic analysis of the factors including forest characteristics, meteorological status, topographic condition causing forest fire is made in this paper at first. The relationships between biophysical factors and fire danger are paid more attention to. Then the parameters derived from remote sensing data are used to estimate the fire danger variables, According to the analysis, not only PVI (Perpendicular Vegetation Index) can classify different vegetation but also crown density is captured with PVI. Vegetation moisture content has high correlation with the ratio of actual evapotranspiration (LE) to potential ecapotranspiration (LEp). SI (Structural Index), which is the combination of TM band 4 and 5 data, is a good indicator of forest age. Finally, a fire dsnger prediction model, in which relative importance of each fire factor is taken into account, is built based on GIS.

  17. PFP dangerous waste training plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This document establishes the minimum training requirements for the Plutonium Finishing Plant (PFP) personnel who are responsible for management of dangerous waste. The training plan outlines training requirements for handling of solid dangerous waste during generator accumulation and liquid dangerous waste during treatment and storage operations. The implementation of this training plan will ensure the PFP facility compliance with the training plan requirements of Dangerous Waste Regulation. Chapter 173-303-330. Washington Administrative Code (WAC). The requirements for such compliance is described in Section 11.0 of WHC-CM-7-5 Environmental Compliance Manual

  18. 75 FR 81233 - National Climate Assessment Development and Advisory Committee; Establishment and Meeting

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-12-27

    ... named to represent the federal agencies in the U.S. Global Change Research Program. The NCADAC will... receive updates on plans for development of the First Draft of the National Climate Assessment Development... National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Climate Assessment Development and...

  19. NASA and the National Climate Assessment: Promoting awareness of NASA Earth science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leidner, A. K.

    2014-12-01

    NASA Earth science observations, models, analyses, and applications made significant contributions to numerous aspects of the Third National Climate Assessment (NCA) report and are contributing to sustained climate assessment activities. The agency's goal in participating in the NCA was to ensure that NASA scientific resources were made available to understand the current state of climate change science and climate change impacts. By working with federal agency partners and stakeholder communities to develop and write the report, the agency was able to raise awareness of NASA climate science with audiences beyond the traditional NASA community. To support assessment activities within the NASA community, the agency sponsored two competitive programs that not only funded research and tools for current and future assessments, but also increased capacity within our community to conduct assessment-relevant science and to participate in writing assessments. Such activities fostered the ability of graduate students, post-docs, and senior researchers to learn about the science needs of climate assessors and end-users, which can guide future research activities. NASA also contributed to developing the Global Change Information System, which deploys information from the NCA to scientists, decision makers, and the public, and thus contributes to climate literacy. Finally, NASA satellite imagery and animations used in the Third NCA helped the pubic and decision makers visualize climate changes and were frequently used in social media to communicate report key findings. These resources are also key for developing educational materials that help teachers and students explore regional climate change impacts and opportunities for responses.

  20. Paleoclimate Implications for Human-Made Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Hansen, James E; Sato, Makiko

    2011-01-01

    Paleoclimate data help us assess climate sensitivity and potential human-made climate effects. We conclude that Earth in the warmest interglacial periods of the past million years was less than 1{\\deg}C warmer than in the Holocene. Polar warmth in these interglacials and in the Pliocene does not imply that a substantial cushion remains between today's climate and dangerous warming, but rather that Earth is poised to experience strong amplifying polar feedbacks in response to moderate global w...

  1. The Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (RISA) Program, Climate Services, and Meeting the National Climate Change Adaptation Challenge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Overpeck, J. T.; Udall, B.; Miles, E.; Dow, K.; Anderson, C.; Cayan, D.; Dettinger, M.; Hartmann, H.; Jones, J.; Mote, P.; Ray, A.; Shafer, M.; White, D.

    2008-12-01

    The NOAA-led RISA Program has grown steadily to nine regions and a focus that includes both natural climate variability and human-driven climate change. The RISAs are, at their core, university-based and heavily invested in partnerships, particularly with stakeholders, NOAA, and other federal agencies. RISA research, assessment and partnerships have led to new operational climate services within NOAA and other agencies, and have become important foundations in the development of local, state and regional climate change adaptation initiatives. The RISA experience indicates that a national climate service is needed, and must include: (1) services prioritized based on stakeholder needs; (2) sustained, ongoing regional interactions with users, (3) a commitment to improve climate literacy; (4) support for assessment as an ongoing, iterative process; (5) full recognition that stakeholder decisions are seldom made using climate information alone; (6) strong interagency partnership; (7) national implementation and regional in focus; (8) capability spanning local, state, tribal, regional, national and international space scales, and weeks to millennia time scales; and (9) institutional design and scientific support flexible enough to assure the effort is nimble enough to respond to rapidly-changing stakeholder needs. The RISA experience also highlights the central role that universities must play in national climate change adaptation programs. Universities have a tradition of trusted regional stakeholder partnerships, as well as the interdisciplinary expertise - including social science, ecosystem science, law, and economics - required to meet stakeholder climate-related needs; project workforce can also shift rapidly in universities. Universities have a proven ability to build and sustain interagency partnerships. Universities excel in most forms of education and training. And universities often have proven entrepreneurship, technology transfer and private sector

  2. Climate program "stone soup": Assessing climate change vulnerabilities in the Aleutian and Bering Sea Islands of Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Littell, J. S.; Poe, A.; van Pelt, T.

    2015-12-01

    Climate change is already affecting the Bering Sea and Aleutian Island region of Alaska. Past and present marine research across a broad spectrum of disciplines is shedding light on what sectors of the ecosystem and the human dimension will be most impacted. In a grassroots approach to extend existing research efforts, leveraging recently completed downscaled climate projections for the Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands region, we convened a team of 30 researchers-- with expertise ranging from anthropology to zooplankton to marine mammals-- to assess climate projections in the context of their expertise. This Aleutian-Bering Climate Vulnerability Assessment (ABCVA) began with researchers working in five teams to evaluate the vulnerabilities of key species and ecosystem services relative to projected changes in climate. Each team identified initial vulnerabilities for their focal species or services, and made recommendations for further research and information needs that would help managers and communities better understand the implications of the changing climate in this region. Those draft recommendations were shared during two focused, public sessions held within two hub communities for the Bering and Aleutian region: Unalaska and St. Paul. Qualitative insights about local concerns and observations relative to climate change were collected during these sessions, to be compared to the recommendations being made by the ABCVA team of researchers. Finally, we used a Structured Decision Making process to prioritize the recommendations of participating scientists, and integrate the insights shared during our community sessions. This work brought together residents, stakeholders, scientists, and natural resource managers to collaboratively identify priorities for addressing current and expected future impacts of climate change. Recommendations from this project will be incorporated into future research efforts of the Aleutian and Bering Sea Islands Landscape Conservation

  3. A New Economic Assessment Index for the Impact of Climate Change on Grain Yield

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    The impact of climate change on agriculture has received wide attention by the scientific community.This paper studies how to assess the grain yield impact of climate change, according to the climate change over a long time period in the future as predicted by a climate system model. The application of the concept of a traditional "yield impact of meteorological factor (YIMF)" or "yield impact of weather factor" to the grain yield assessment of a decadal or even a longer timescale would be suffocated at the outset because the YIMF is for studying the phenomenon on an interannual timescale, and it is difficult to distinguish between the trend caused by climate change and the one resulting from changes in non-climatic factors. Therefore,the concept of the yield impact of climatic change (YICC), which is defined as the difference in the per unit area yields (PUAY) of a grain crop under a changing and an envisaged invariant climate conditions, is presented in this paper to assess the impact of global climate change on grain yields. The climatic factor has been introduced into the renowned economic Cobb-Douglas model, yielding a quantitative assessment method of YICC using real data. The method has been tested using the historical data of Northeast China,and the results show that it has an encouraging application outlook.

  4. Using the Climate Assessment Tool (CAT) in U.S. EPA BASINS integrated modeling system to assess watershed vulnerability to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Imhoff, J C; Kittle, J L; Gray, M R; Johnson, T E

    2007-01-01

    During the last century, much of the United States experienced warming temperatures and changes in amount and intensity of precipitation. Changes in future climate conditions present additional risk to water and watershed managers. The most recent release of U.S. EPA's BASINS watershed modeling system includes a Climate Assessment Tool (CAT) that provides new capabilities for assessing impacts of climate change on water resources. The BASINS CAT provides users with the ability to modify historical climate and conduct systematic sensitivity analyses of specific hydrologic and water quality endpoints to changes in climate using the BASINS models (Hydrologic Simulation Program - FORTRAN (HSPF)). These capabilities are well suited for addressing questions about the potential impacts of climate change on key hydrologic and water quality goals using the watershed scale at which most important planning decisions are made. This paper discusses the concepts that motivated the CAT development effort; the resulting capabilities incorporated into BASINS CAT; and the opportunities that result from integrating climate assessment capabilities into a comprehensive watershed water quality modeling system. PMID:17978432

  5. Assessing Extremes Climatology Using NWS Local Climate Analysis Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Timofeyeva, M. M.; Hollingshead, A.; Hilderbrand, D.; Mayes, B.; Hartley, T.; Kempf McGavock, N. M.; Lau, E.; Olenic, E. A.; Motta, B.; Bunge, R.; Brown, L. E.; Fritsch, F.

    2010-12-01

    The Local Climate Analysis Tool (LCAT) is evolving out of a need to support and enhance the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Weather Service (NWS) field offices’ ability to access, manipulate, and interpret local climate data and characterize climate variability and change impacts. LCAT will enable NWS Regional Headquarters, Weather Forecast Offices, Weather Service Offices, and River Forecast Centers the ability to conduct regional and local climate studies using station and reanalysis gridded data and various statistical techniques for climate analysis. The analysis results will be used for climate services to guide local decision makers in weather and climate sensitive actions and to deliver information to the general public. Field offices need standardized, scientifically sound methodology for local climate analysis (such as trend, composites, and principal statistical and time-series analysis) that is comprehensive, accessible, and efficient, with the potential to expand with growing NOAA Climate Services needs. The methodology for climate analyses is practiced by the NWS Climate Prediction Center (CPC), NOAA National Climatic Data Center, and NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, as well as NWS field office staff. LCAT will extend this practice at the local level, allowing it to become both widespread and standardized, and thus improve NWS climate services capabilities. LCAT focus is on the local scale (as opposed to national and global scales of CPC products). The LCAT will: -Improve professional competency of local office staff and expertise in providing local information to their users. LCAT will improve quality of local climate services -Ensure adequate local input to CPC products that depend on local information, such as the U.S. Drought Monitor. LCAT will allow improvement of CPC climate products -Allow testing of local climate variables beyond temperature averages and precipitation totals such as climatology of

  6. ASSESSMENT OF SOCIAL AND PSYCHOLOGICAL CONSEQUENCES OF RADIATION DANGER EXPERIENCE AMONG DIFFERENT AGE GROUPS OF THE POPULATION FROM CONTAMINATED AREAS OF RUSSIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. A. Marchenko

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The results of evaluation of social-psychological consequences of radiation danger experience among different age groups of the population from contaminated areas of Russia (Oryol, Kaluga, Bryansk, Tula areas among whom the unfavorable emotional and personal changes were registered due to subjective features of perception of radiation threat have been represented (“risk” group. Experimental sample of the research consisted of 1 544 people from Russia. One of the main results of this research is establishment of the fact that adverse emotional and personal changes in connection with subjective features of perception of radiation threat were revealed for 53,9% of respondents of advanced age and more than 20% of respondents of middle and young age from contaminated areas of Russia. Among the respondents from contaminated areas of Belarus, about a third surveyed from each age group get to “risk” group.

  7. Uncertainty assessments of climate change projections over South America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torres, Roger Rodrigues; Marengo, Jose Antonio

    2013-04-01

    This paper assesses the uncertainties involved in the projections of seasonal temperature and precipitation changes over South America in the twenty-first century. Climate simulations generated by 24 general circulation models are weighted according to the reliability ensemble averaging (REA) approach. The results show that the REA mean temperature change is slightly smaller over South America compared to the simple ensemble mean. Higher reliability in the temperature projections is found over the La Plata basin, and a larger uncertainty range is located in the Amazon. A temperature increase exceeding 2 °C is found to have a very likely (>90 %) probability of occurrence for the entire South American continent in all seasons, and a more likely than not (>50 %) probability of exceeding 4 °C by the end of this century is found over northwest South America, the Amazon Basin, and Northeast Brazil. For precipitation, the projected changes have the same magnitude as the uncertainty range and are comparable to natural variability.

  8. The climate change response bill 2010: An assessment

    OpenAIRE

    GORECKI, PAUL K.; Tol, Richard S. J.

    2011-01-01

    Climate change is an important problem. It would be desirable to have legislation that would put Ireland on a low-cost and equitable trajectory to a zero-carbon economy. The draft Climate Change Response Bill 2010 will not achieve that. The exact emission reduction targets for 2020 are ambiguous, but considerably more ambitious than Ireland's obligations under EU legislation. EU legislation severely constrains the options for domestic climate policy so that the extra emission reduction would ...

  9. The Climate Change Response Bill 2010: An Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    GORECKI, PAUL K.; Tol, Richard S. J.

    2011-01-01

    Climate change is an important problem. It would be desirable to have legislation that would put Ireland on a low-cost and equitable trajectory to a zero-carbon economy. The draft Climate Change Response Bill 2010 will not achieve that. The exact emission reduction targets for 2020 are ambiguous, but considerably more ambitious than Ireland's obligations under EU legislation. EU legislation severely constrains the options for domestic climate policy so that the extra emission reduction would ...

  10. Manifesto for a Dangerous Sociology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cisneros, César

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available Based on my experience as a Mexican sociologist, I argue for the practice of a "Dangerous Sociology". I examine the process of sociological observation to show the need for such a practice. Some dimensions of this "Dangerous Sociology" are defined.

  11. Wildlife as biological indicators for assessing impacts of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Estimates of the impacts of climate change on wildlife are necessarily constrained by knowledge of the effects of climate on wildlife. A review is presented of the better-known impacts of climate on wildlife, examining their utility as ecological indicators. The most obvious feature of any species is its geographic distribution, or range. Climate may affect distribution indirectly through effects on habitat, directly through physiological effects, or most probably, through both. Impacts can include changes in distribution of habitat, changes in distribution of species, and changes in migration routes. Direct effects of climate include timing and success of breeding, timing and success of migration, winter survival, and extreme events. Distribution changes are powerful integrators of ecosystem-level events, but poor indicators of particular changes. Changes in the timing of migration, and the phenology of breeding, are more directly determined by weather events and hence will be better indicators of changing climate. Detailed knowledge of effects of climate on timing and success of breeding is available for only a few species, and has not been carefully synthesized with a view to using such variables as climatic indicators. Temperature maxima and minima, frost-free and degree days, and estimates of precipitation on finer scales, both temporal and geographic, are needed to predict the effects of climate change on wildlife. 48 refs

  12. Semantic Gaps are Dangerous

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ejstrup, Michael; le Fevre Jakobsen, Bjarne

    Language adapts to the environment where it serves as a tool to communication. Language is a social agreement, and we all have to stick to both grammaticalized and non-grammaticalized rules in order to pass information about the world around us. As such language develops and adapts constantely. R...... we do not have these tools of communication, and we are in a situation today where media and specially digital and social media, supported by new possibilities of migration, create dangerous situations.......Language adapts to the environment where it serves as a tool to communication. Language is a social agreement, and we all have to stick to both grammaticalized and non-grammaticalized rules in order to pass information about the world around us. As such language develops and adapts constantely....... Recently both media and migrations have accelerated considerably. In Europe and thus in Denmark homogenous populations have developed into multicultural ones. Language has not kept pace with this development, and millions of people have to adapt to this new situation with lightning speed. That seems not to...

  13. A dangerous mixture

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna Piva

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available A 59-year old woman was admitted for fatigue and arm paresthesias with Trousseau sign. Her medical history included thyroidectomy and hypercholesterolemia recently treated with simvastatin. Laboratory tests showed severe hypokalemia and hypocalcemia, severe increase in muscle enzymes, metabolic alkalosis; low plasma renin activity, increased thyroid-stimulating hormone, normal free thyroxine, increased parathyroid hormone, decreased vitamin D3; alterations in electrolyte urinary excretion, cortisol and aldosterone were excluded. Hypothesizing a statin-related myopathy, simvastatin was suspended; the patient reported use of laxatives containing licorice. Electrolytes normalized with intravenous supplementation. Among many biochemical alterations, none stands out as a major cause for muscular and electrolyte disorders. All co-factors are inter-connected, starting with statin-induced myopathy, worsened by hypothyroidism, secondary hyperaldosteronism and vitamin D deficiency, leading to hypocalcemia and hypokalemia, perpetrating muscular and electrolyte disorders. The importance of considering clinical conditions as a whole emerges with multiple co-factors involved. Another issue concerns herbal products and their potential dangerous effects.

  14. Differential climate impacts for policy-relevant limits to global warming

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schleussner, Carl Friedrich; Lissner, Tabea K.; Fischer, Erich M.; Wohland, Jan; Perrette, Mahé; Golly, Antonius; Rogelj, Joeri; Childers, Katelin; Schewe, Jacob; Frieler, Katja; Mengel, Matthias; Hare, William; Schaeffer, Michiel

    2016-01-01

    Robust appraisals of climate impacts at different levels of global-mean temperature increase are vital to guide assessments of dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. The 2015 Paris Agreement includes a two-headed temperature goal: "holding the increase in the global average

  15. Health Consequence Scales for Use in Health Impact Assessments of Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Helen Brown; Jeffery Spickett

    2014-01-01

    While health impact assessment (HIA) has typically been applied to projects, plans or policies, it has significant potential with regard to strategic considerations of major health issues facing society such as climate change. Given the complexity of climate change, assessing health impacts presents new challenges that may require different approaches compared to traditional applications of HIA. This research focuses on the development of health consequence scales suited to assessing and comp...

  16. An Assessment of a College of Business Administration's Ethical Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schulte, Laura; Carter, Amanda

    2004-01-01

    This study investigated graduate faculty and student perceptions of the ethical climate of a College of Business Administration within a Midwestern metropolitan university and the perceived importance of the ethical climate in the retention of students within graduate academic programs. Eighteen faculty and 90 graduate students completed the…

  17. Uncertainties in Agricultural Impact Assessments of Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Montesino San Martin, Manuel

    Future food security will be challenged by the likely increase in demand, changes in consumption patterns and the effects of climate change. Framing food availability requires adequate agricultural production planning. Decision-making can benefit from improved understanding of the uncertainties...... for adaptation to climate change (and a significant aspect for the design of the Representative Agricultural Pathways)....

  18. A Quantitative Climate-Match Score for Risk-Assessment Screening of Reptile and Amphibian Introductions

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Wilgen, Nicola J.; Roura-Pascual, Núria; Richardson, David M.

    2009-09-01

    Assessing climatic suitability provides a good preliminary estimate of the invasive potential of a species to inform risk assessment. We examined two approaches for bioclimatic modeling for 67 reptile and amphibian species introduced to California and Florida. First, we modeled the worldwide distribution of the biomes found in the introduced range to highlight similar areas worldwide from which invaders might arise. Second, we modeled potentially suitable environments for species based on climatic factors in their native ranges, using three sources of distribution data. Performance of the three datasets and both approaches were compared for each species. Climate match was positively correlated with species establishment success (maximum predicted suitability in the introduced range was more strongly correlated with establishment success than mean suitability). Data assembled from the Global Amphibian Assessment through NatureServe provided the most accurate models for amphibians, while ecoregion data compiled by the World Wide Fund for Nature yielded models which described reptile climatic suitability better than available point-locality data. We present three methods of assigning a climate-match score for use in risk assessment using both the mean and maximum climatic suitabilities. Managers may choose to use different methods depending on the stringency of the assessment and the available data, facilitating higher resolution and accuracy for herpetofaunal risk assessment. Climate-matching has inherent limitations and other factors pertaining to ecological interactions and life-history traits must also be considered for thorough risk assessment.

  19. Data driven approaches vs. qualitative approaches in climate change impact and vulnerability assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zebisch, Marc; Schneiderbauer, Stefan; Petitta, Marcello

    2015-04-01

    In the last decade the scope of climate change science has broadened significantly. 15 years ago the focus was mainly on understanding climate change, providing climate change scenarios and giving ideas about potential climate change impacts. Today, adaptation to climate change has become an increasingly important field of politics and one role of science is to inform and consult this process. Therefore, climate change science is not anymore focusing on data driven approaches only (such as climate or climate impact models) but is progressively applying and relying on qualitative approaches including opinion and expertise acquired through interactive processes with local stakeholders and decision maker. Furthermore, climate change science is facing the challenge of normative questions, such us 'how important is a decrease of yield in a developed country where agriculture only represents 3% of the GDP and the supply with agricultural products is strongly linked to global markets and less depending on local production?'. In this talk we will present examples from various applied research and consultancy projects on climate change vulnerabilities including data driven methods (e.g. remote sensing and modelling) to semi-quantitative and qualitative assessment approaches. Furthermore, we will discuss bottlenecks, pitfalls and opportunities in transferring climate change science to policy and decision maker oriented climate services.

  20. Maryland Delaware Climate Change Education Assessment and Research (MADE-CLEAR): Assessing the needs and engaging the community

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griswold, M.; Stylinski, C.; McGinnis, J.; Mouza, C.; Veron, D. E.; Wolfson, J.; Benson, S.; Shapiro, N.

    2012-12-01

    MADE-CLEAR is a regional collaborative partnership building sustainable capacity for effective and relevant education across multiple aspects of climate change within Maryland and Delaware. Our approach is a collaborative one informed by formal and informal education contexts; relevant systemic education policies and practices; and curricular, instructional, and technological capacities. Our project team includes climate scientists, learning scientists and education practitioners, and the project leverages partnerships with state departments of education, government agencies, informal education organizations and other stakeholders. Over the past year, the MADE-CLEAR team has reviewed regional and national climate educational materials and policies, as well as barriers and effective practices to teaching controversial topics such as climate change. We have formally and informally engaged stakeholders through our Maryland-Delaware Climate Change Education Summit along with smaller meetings and workshops. We also conducted needs assessments with regional education leaders including K-12 science supervisors, university faculty, and staff at informal education organizations. We identified four shared needs among these groups: 1) professional development focused on climate change for K-12 teachers, informal educators, and university faculty; 2) regionally-specific and interdisciplinary climate change education resources; 3) a focus on critical thinking and inquiry skills; and 4) support for networking and communities of practice focused on climate change education. Building directly from this community input, we have developed an implementation plan that seeks to catalyze climate education in Maryland and Delaware by 1) embedding climate science into formal and informal education; 2) building and sustaining the capacity of educators to deepen student understanding of climate change; 3) utilizing learning principles and the sociocultural diversity of our region to develop

  1. A new dataset for systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of global warming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Heinke

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available In the ongoing political debate on climate change, global mean temperature change (ΔTglob has become the yardstick by which mitigation costs, impacts from unavoided climate change, and adaptation requirements are discussed. For a scientifically informed discourse along these lines systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of ΔTglob are required. The current availability of climate change scenarios constrains this type of assessment to a narrow range of temperature change and/or a reduced ensemble of climate models. Here, a newly composed dataset of climate change scenarios is presented that addresses the specific requirements for global assessments of climate change impacts as a function of ΔTglob. A pattern-scaling approach is applied to extract generalized patterns of spatially explicit change in temperature, precipitation and cloudiness from 19 AOGCMs. The patterns are combined with scenarios of global mean temperature increase obtained from the reduced-complexity climate model MAGICC6 to create climate scenarios covering warming levels from 1.5 to 5 degrees above pre-industrial levels around the year 2100. The patterns are shown to sufficiently maintain the original AOGCMs' climate change properties, even though they, necessarily, utilize a simplified relationships between ΔTglob and changes in local climate properties. The dataset (made available online upon final publication of this paper facilitates systematic analyses of climate change impacts as it covers a wider and finer-spaced range of climate change scenarios than the original AOGCM simulations.

  2. Climate research in the former Soviet Union. FASAC: Foreign Applied Sciences Assessment Center technical assessment report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ellingson, R.G.; Baer, F.; Ellsaesser, H.W.; Harshvardhan; Hoffert, M.I.; Randall, D.A.

    1993-09-01

    This report assesses the state of the art in several areas of climate research in the former Soviet Union. This assessment was performed by a group of six internationally recognized US experts in related fields. The areas chosen for review are: large-scale circulation processes in the atmosphere and oceans; atmospheric radiative processes; cloud formation processes; climate effects of natural atmospheric disturbances; and the carbon cycle, paleoclimates, and general circulation model validation. The study found an active research community in each of the above areas. Overall, the quality of climate research in the former Soviet Union is mixed, although the best Soviet work is as good as the best corresponding work in the West. The best Soviet efforts have principally been in theoretical studies or data analysis. However, an apparent lack of access to modern computing facilities has severely hampered the Soviet research. Most of the issues considered in the Soviet literature are known, and have been discussed in the Western literature, although some extraordinary research in paleoclimatology was noted. Little unusual and exceptionally creative material was found in the other areas during the study period (1985 through 1992). Scientists in the former Soviet Union have closely followed the Western literature and technology. Given their strengths in theoretical and analytical methods, as well as their possession of simplified versions of detailed computer models being used in the West, researchers in the former Soviet Union have the potential to make significant contributions if supercomputers, workstations, and software become available. However, given the current state of the economy in the former Soviet Union, it is not clear that the computer gap will be bridged in the foreseeable future.

  3. Climate change and plant health; Development of a conceptual frame-work for impact assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Breukers, M.L.H.

    2010-01-01

    This report presents a conceptual framework for systematic assessment of direct economic impacts of climate change on pest and disease management at the crop level. The framework evaluates and aggregates the effects, and subsequently impacts, of climate change on selected pests and diseases and their control in a particular crop. Application of the framework reveals opportunities and threats in crop protection resulting from climate change, and can direct future adaptation efforts.

  4. Assessing agriculture vulnerabilities for the design of effective measures for adaptation to climate change (AVEMAC project)

    OpenAIRE

    DONATELLI Marcello; DUVEILLER BOGDAN GRÉGORY HENRY E; Fumagalli, Davide; SRIVASTAVA AMIT KUMAR; ZUCCHINI Antonio; FASBENDER DOMINIQUE; ANGILERI Vincenzo; Kay, Simon; JUSKEVICIUS Valentinas; Toth, Tibor; Haastrup, Palle; M'BAREK Robert; ESPINOSA GODED MARIA; CIAIAN PAVEL

    2012-01-01

    This final report of the AVEMAC study presents an assessment of the potential vulnerability of European agriculture to changing climatic conditions in the coming decades. The analysis is based on weather data generated from two contrasting realizations of the A1B emission scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for the time horizons 2020 and 2030. These two realizations (obtained from two different general circulation models, downscaled using regional climate...

  5. The impacts of climate change across the globe: a multi-sectoral assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Arnell, N. W.; Brown, S.; Gosling, S.N.; Gottschalk, P.; Hinkel, J.; Huntingford, C.; Lloyd-Hughes, B.; Lowe, J. A.; Nicholls, R. J.; Osborn, T. J.; Osborne, T. M.; Rose, G. A.; Smith, P; Wheeler, T.R.; Zelazowski, P

    2016-01-01

    The overall global-scale consequences of climate change are dependent on the distribution of impacts across regions, and there are multiple dimensions to these impacts. This paper presents a global assessment of the potential impacts of climate change across several sectors, using a harmonised set of impacts models forced by the same climate andsocio-economic scenarios. Indicators of impact cover the water resources, river and coastal flooding, agriculture, natural environment and built envir...

  6. Honey Production for Assessing the Impact of Climatic Changes on Vegetation

    OpenAIRE

    Schweitzer, P.; Nombré, I.; Boussim, JI.

    2013-01-01

    Burkina Faso is experiencing the effects of climate change in all sectors of its agriculture, including honey production. This study assessed the impact of climatic factors on countries' vegetation through honey production. Honey production of nine apiaries consisting of 165 rectangular movable frames beehives was monitored over a seven year period starting from 2002 to 2008. Climatic data such as rainfall, temperature and wind speed were obtained from the nearest meteorological station. Line...

  7. Using a Social Justice and Health Framework to Assess European Climate Change Adaptation Strategies

    OpenAIRE

    Melanie Boeckmann; Hajo Zeeb

    2014-01-01

    Climate change puts pressure on existing health vulnerabilities through higher frequency of extreme weather events, changes in disease vector distribution or exacerbated air pollution. Climate change adaptation policies may hold potential to reduce societal inequities. We assessed the role of public health and social justice in European climate change adaptation using a three-fold approach: a document analysis, a critical discourse analysis of a subgroup of strategies, and a ranking of strate...

  8. Modelling robust crop production portfolios to assess agricultural vulnerability to climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Mitter, Hermine; Heumesser, Christine; Schmid, Erwin

    2014-01-01

    Agricultural vulnerability is assessed by (i) modelling climate change impacts on crop yields and gross margins, (ii) identifying crop production portfolios for adaptation, and (iii) analyzing the effect of agricultural policies and risk aversion on adaptive capacity. We combine, spatially explicit, a statistical climate change model, the bio-physical process model EPIC and a portfolio optimization model. Under climate change, optimal portfolios include higher shares of intensive crop managem...

  9. Farmers’ preferences for climate-smart agriculture an assessment in the Indo-Gangetic plain:

    OpenAIRE

    Taneja, Garima; Pal, Barun Deb; Joshi, Pramod Kumar; Aggarwal, Pramod; Tyagi, N.K.

    2014-01-01

    This study was undertaken to assess farmers’ preferences and willingness to pay (WTP) for various climate-smart interventions in the Indo-Gangetic Plain. The research outputs will be helpful in integrating farmers’ choices with government programs in the selected regions. The Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP) was selected because it is highly vulnerable to climate change, which may adversely affect the sustainability of the rice-wheat production system and the food security of the region. Climate-sma...

  10. Do Current Assessments Underestimate Future Damages From Climate Change?

    OpenAIRE

    Stéphane Hallegatte

    2007-01-01

    While the economic debate on climate policy focuses on discounting, we do not know yet what to discount. The potential (non-discounted) socio-economic cost of climate change, indeed, is still unknown. Only a few studies have tried to estimate socio-economic costs of climate change. Most of them concluded that, for a warming of a few degrees, damages will be limited to a few percent of GDP. All these studies, however, have disregarded important mechanisms and have only considered the cost of a...

  11. Capturing subregional variability in regional-scale climate change vulnerability assessments of natural resources.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buotte, Polly C; Peterson, David L; McKelvey, Kevin S; Hicke, Jeffrey A

    2016-03-15

    Natural resource vulnerability to climate change can depend on the climatology and ecological conditions at a particular site. Here we present a conceptual framework for incorporating spatial variability in natural resource vulnerability to climate change in a regional-scale assessment. The framework was implemented in the first regional-scale vulnerability assessment conducted by the US Forest Service. During this assessment, five subregional workshops were held to capture variability in vulnerability and to develop adaptation tactics. At each workshop, participants answered a questionnaire to: 1) identify species, resources, or other information missing from the regional assessment, and 2) describe subregional vulnerability to climate change. Workshop participants divided into six resource groups; here we focus on wildlife resources. Participants identified information missing from the regional assessment and multiple instances of subregional variability in climate change vulnerability. We provide recommendations for improving the process of capturing subregional variability in a regional vulnerability assessment. We propose a revised conceptual framework structured around pathways of climate influence, each with separate rankings for exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. These revisions allow for a quantitative ranking of species, pathways, exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity across subregions. Rankings can be used to direct the development and implementation of future regional research and monitoring programs. The revised conceptual framework is equally applicable as a stand-alone model for assessing climate change vulnerability and as a nested model within a regional assessment for capturing subregional variability in vulnerability. PMID:26796918

  12. Artificial Immune Danger Theory Based Model for Network Security Evaluation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Feixian Sun

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Inspired by the principles of immune danger theory, a danger theory based model for network security risk assessment is presented in this paper. Firstly, the principle of the danger theory is introduced. And then, with the improved concepts and formal definitions of antigen, antibody, danger signal, and detection lymphocyte for network security risk assessment presented, the distributed architecture of the proposed model is described. Following that, the principle of network intrusion detection is expounded. Finally, the method of network security risk assessment is given. Theoretical analysis and simulation results show that the proposed model can evaluate the network attack threats in real time. Thus, it provides an effective risk evaluation solution to network security.

  13. Climate Vulnerability Assessments : An Assessment of Climate Change Vulnerability, Risk, and Adaptation in Albania’s Power Sector

    OpenAIRE

    World Bank

    2009-01-01

    Energy security is a key concern in Albania, which relies on hydropower for about 90 percent of its electricity production. While renewable energy resources like hydropower play a fundamental role in moving the world towards a low-carbon economy, they are also vulnerable to climatic conditions. Climate variability already affects Albania's energy production to a considerable extent, and cl...

  14. Possible impact of climate change on meningitis in northwest Nigeria: an assessment using CMIP5 climate model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdussalam, Auwal; Monaghan, Andrew; Steinhoff, Daniel; Dukic, Vanja; Hayden, Mary; Hopson, Thomas; Thornes, John; Leckebusch, Gregor

    2014-05-01

    Meningitis remains a major health burden throughout Sahelian Africa, especially in heavily-populated northwest Nigeria. Cases exhibit strong sensitivity to intra- and inter-annual climate variability, peaking during the hot and dry boreal spring months, raising concern that future climate change may increase the incidence of meningitis in the region. The impact of future climate change on meningitis risk in northwest Nigeria is assessed by forcing an empirical model of meningitis with monthly simulations from an ensemble of thirteen statistically downscaled global climate model projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Experiment Phase 5 (CMIP5) for RCPs 2.6, 6.0 and 8.5 scenarios. The results suggest future temperature increases due to climate change has the potential to significantly increase meningitis cases in both the early and late 21st century, and to increase the length of the meningitis season in the late century. March cases may increase from 23 per 100,000 people for present day (1990-2005), to 29-30 per 100,000 (p<0.01) in the early century (2020-2035) and 31-42 per 100,000 (p<0.01) in the late century (2060-2075), the range being dependent on the emissions scenario. It is noteworthy that these results represent the climatological potential for increased cases due to climate change, as we assume current prevention and treatment strategies remain similar in the future.

  15. Delivering CMIP5-based climate scenarios for impact assessments in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Semenov, Mikhail

    2014-05-01

    Local-scale climate scenarios are required as input to impact models for assessment of climate change impacts. These scenarios incorporate changes in climatic variability as well as extreme events which are particularly important when used in conjunctions with process-based non-linear impact models. ELPIS is a repository of climate scenarios for Europe, which is based on the LARS-WG weather generator and future climate projections. Recently, projections from 18 global climate models (GCMs) from the CMIP5 multi-model ensembles used in the latest IPCC AR5 were incorporated into ELPIS. In ELPIS, the site parameters for climatic variables for the baseline period, 1980-2010, were estimated by LARS-WG from the European Crop Growth Monitoring System (CGMS) daily weather which were interpolated from observed sites over 25-km grid in Europe. Using change-factors derived from GCMs, LARS-WG perturbed site distributions for the baseline climate to generate local-scale daily weather for the future under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 concentration pathways. The ability of LARS-WG to reproduce daily weather time series for 1980-2010 was assessed using statistical tests. Baseline site parameters, derived from CGMS, were validated against independent dataset obtained from the ECA&D archive. ELPIS represents a unique resource for impact assessments of climate change in Europe.

  16. Assessing climate adaptation options and uncertainties for cereal systems in West Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guan, K.; Sultan, B.; Biasutti, M.; Lobell, D. B.

    2015-12-01

    The already fragile agriculture production system in West Africa faces further challenges in meeting food security in the coming decades, primarily due to a fast increasing population and risks of climate change. Successful adaptation of agriculture should not only benefit in the current climate but should also reduce negative (or enhance positive) impacts for climate change. Assessment of various possible adaptation options and their uncertainties provides key information for prioritizing adaptation investments. Here, based on the several robust aspects of climate projections in this region (i.e. temperature increases and rainfall pattern shifts), we use two well-validated crop models (i.e. APSIM and SARRA-H) and an ensemble of downscaled climate forcing to assess five possible and realistic adaptation options (late sowing, intensification, thermal time increase, water harvesting and increased resilience to heat stress) in West Africa for the staple crop production of sorghum. We adopt a new assessment framework to account for both the impacts of adaptation options in current climate and their ability to reduce impacts of future climate change, and also consider changes in both mean yield and its variability. Our results reveal that most proposed "adaptation options" are not more beneficial in the future than in the current climate, i.e. not really reduce the climate change impacts. Increased temperature resilience during grain number formation period is the main adaptation that emerges. We also find that changing from the traditional to modern cultivar, and later sowing in West Sahel appear to be robust adaptations.

  17. Assessment of effects of climate change on catastrophic floods in mountain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The method, which has united model of formation thawed and rainfall runoff in river basins and a way of designing of the meteorological scenarios, simulating climate change, was applied to realization of these researches. The decisions of three hydrological tasks was taken into consideration: 1) estimation of runoff reaction of on uniform within a year increase or downturn of air temperature in limits of ±2oC; 2) estimation of runoff reaction on strengthening climate continentality - downturn of air temperature during snow cover accumulation (cold period) and the increase of air temperature in warm period (includes the period of snow melting) at preservation of annual air temperature at a modern level; 3) revealing of meteorological conditions leading to occurrence of danger on water object in the case of climate change. The mountain's rivers of Tien Shan, Altai and Urals were investigated. The strengthening of climate continentality can result (with other equal conditions) in occurrence of catastrophic situations at increase of average height of basin and simultaneous increase of precipitation, as the maximal discharge can grow 8-10 times. The reaction of plane rivers much less and the maximum discharges grow 3-4 times.(Author)

  18. Impacts of climate change on biodiversity, ecosystems, and ecosystem services: technical input to the 2013 National Climate Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Staudinger, Michelle D.; Grimm, Nancy B.; Staudt, Amanda; Carter, Shawn L.; Stuart, F. Stuart, III; Kareiva, Peter; Ruckelshaus, Mary; Stein, Bruce A.

    2012-01-01

    Ecosystems, and the biodiversity and services they support, are intrinsically dependent on climate. During the twentieth century, climate change has had documented impacts on ecological systems, and impacts are expected to increase as climate change continues and perhaps even accelerates. This technical input to the National Climate Assessment synthesizes our scientific understanding of the way climate change is affecting biodiversity, ecosystems, ecosystem services, and what strategies might be employed to decrease current and future risks. Building on past assessments of how climate change and other stressors are affecting ecosystems in the United States and around the world, we approach the subject from several different perspectives. First, we review the observed and projected impacts on biodiversity, with a focus on genes, species, and assemblages of species. Next, we examine how climate change is affecting ecosystem structural elements—such as biomass, architecture, and heterogeneity—and functions—specifically, as related to the fluxes of energy and matter. People experience climate change impacts on biodiversity and ecosystems as changes in ecosystem services; people depend on ecosystems for resources that are harvested, their role in regulating the movement of materials and disturbances, and their recreational, cultural, and aesthetic value. Thus, we review newly emerging research to determine how human activities and a changing climate are likely to alter the delivery of these ecosystem services. This technical input also examines two cross-cutting topics. First, we recognize that climate change is happening against the backdrop of a wide range of other environmental and anthropogenic stressors, many of which have caused dramatic ecosystem degradation already. This broader range of stressors interacts with climate change, and complicates our abilities to predict and manage the impacts on biodiversity, ecosystems, and the services they support. The

  19. GIS analysis to apply theoretical Minimal Model on glacier flow line and assess glacier response in climate change scenarios

    OpenAIRE

    M. Moretti; Mattavelli, M; De Amicis, Mattia; Maggi, V

    2014-01-01

    The development of theoretical work about glacier dynamics has given rise to the construction of mathematical models to assess glacier response in climate change scenarios. Glacier are sentinels of climate condition and the Project of Interest NextData will favour new data production about the present and past climatic variability and future climate projections, as well as new assessments of the impact of climate change on environment. The aim of this specific research program is to develo...

  20. An empirical economic assessment of impacts of climate change on agriculture in Zambia

    OpenAIRE

    Jain, Suman

    2007-01-01

    This report assesses the economic impacts of climate change on agriculture in Zambia, using the Ricardian method. A multiple linear regression model with net revenue per hectare as response variable has been fitted with climate, hydrological, soil, and socioeconomic variables as explanatory variables. There is one main cropping season in Zambia, lasting from November to April. Crop product...

  1. Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health in the United States: A Scientific Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Climate change threatens human health and well-being in the United States. To address this growing threat, the Interagency Group on Climate Change and Human Health (CCHHG), a working group of the U.S. Global Change Research Program’s (USGCRP), has developed this assessment as par...

  2. The National Climate Assessment: A Treasure Trove for Education, Communications and Outreach

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCaffrey, M.; Berbeco, M.; Connolly, R.; Niepold, F., III; Poppleton, K. L. I.; Cloyd, E.; Ledley, T. S.

    2014-12-01

    Required by Congress under the Global Change Act of 1990 to inform the nation on the findings of current climate research, the Third U.S. National Climate Assessment (NCA), released in May 2014, is a rich resource for climate change education, communications and outreach (ECO). Using a website design with mobile applications in mind, NCA takes advantage of mobile learning technology which is revolutionizing how, when and where learning occurs. In an effort to maximize the "teachable moments" inherent in the assessment, a community of experts from the National Center for Science Education and the CLEAN Network, working under the auspices of the National Climate Assessment Network (NCAnet) Education Affinity Group, have developed a series of NCA Learning Pathways that match key NCA messages and resources with reviewed educational materials and trusted online information sources, thereby adding pedagogical depth to the assessment. The NCA Learning Pathways, which focus on the regional chapters of the report, are designed make climate change science more local, human, relevant and, if properly framed by educators and communicators, hopeful for learners. This paper touches on the challenges and opportunities of infusing climate education, communications and outreach into curriculum and society, and details the development and content of NCA Learning Pathways, which are available online through NOAA's Climate.gov website: http://www.climate.gov/teaching

  3. Assessing Climate Literacy Content in Higher Education Science Courses: Distribution, Challenges, and Needs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veron, Dana E.; Marbach-Ad, Gili; Wolfson, Jane; Ozbay, Gulnihal

    2016-01-01

    The study described in this article is part of the Maryland and Delaware Climate Change Education Assessment and Research (MADE CLEAR) project, which aims to improve climate literacy in the K-16 population through systemic, sustainable change in teacher preparation. The authors surveyed faculty members at four higher education institutions to…

  4. Integrated assessment of farm level adaptation to climate change in agriculture

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mandryk, M.

    2016-01-01

    The findings of the thesis allowed assessing plausible futures of agriculture in Flevoland around 2050 with insights in effective adaptation to climate change at different levels. Besides empirical findings, this thesis contributed methodologically to the portfolio of climate change impact and adapt

  5. Climate change and plant health; Development of a conceptual frame-work for impact assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Breukers, M.L.H.

    2010-01-01

    This report presents a conceptual framework for systematic assessment of direct economic impacts of climate change on pest and disease management at the crop level. The framework evaluates and aggregates the effects, and subsequently impacts, of climate change on selected pests and diseases and thei

  6. Scenarios of long-term farm structural change for application in climate change impact assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mandryk, M.; Reidsma, P.; Ittersum, van M.K.

    2012-01-01

    Towards 2050, climate change is one of the possible drivers that will change the farming landscape, but market, policy and technological development may be at least equally important. In the last decade, many studies assessed impacts of climate change and specific adaptation strategies. However, ada

  7. Impacts of Climate Change on Brazilian Agriculture : Refocusing Impact Assessments to 2050

    OpenAIRE

    World Bank, (WB)

    2010-01-01

    This report evaluates the requirements for an assessment of climate change impacts on agriculture to guide policy makers on investment priorities and phasing. Because agriculture is vital for national food security and is a strong contributor to Brazil's GDP growth, there is growing concern that Brazilian agriculture is increasingly vulnerable to climate variability and change. To meet nat...

  8. Turkey - Investment Climate Assessment : From Crisis to Private Sector Led Growth

    OpenAIRE

    World Bank

    2010-01-01

    This investment climate assessment draws on the analysis of firm-level survey data collected during April 2008-January 2009, supplemented by other sources, to provide a comprehensive and up-to-date description of the investment climate facing Turkish firms of all size classes, including the impact of government regulations and recent reforms. An important feature of the analysis is extensive ...

  9. Assessment of wheat productivity vulnerability in Northern Kazakhstan under possible climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Assessment of wheat productivity vulnerability in basic wheat-sowing regions of Kazakstan under possible climate changes is presented. Productivity calculation is carried out with use of CERES-Wheat numerical model under different scenarios of climate change, formed on the base of common atmospheric output data circulation models, received for conditions of carbon dioxide concentration doubling in atmosphere. (author)

  10. Grenelle de l'Environnement: the climate-energy assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    After having recalled the main principles of the French 'Grenelle de l'Environnement' environmental policy (integration of cost for climate and biodiversity in large project choices) and discussed the articulation with international and European challenges (international negotiations, EU ETS, adjustment taxes), this report presents and discusses the different commitments, objectives, demands and adopted measures in different sectors: buildings, transports, energy management, development of renewable energies, climate-energy contribution, agriculture, regions and urban planning

  11. Assessing climate change causes, risks and opportunities in forestry

    OpenAIRE

    Paul J. Burgess; Moffat, Andy J.; Matthews, Robin B.

    2011-01-01

    Forests play an important role in regulating the global climate through storing carbon that would otherwise be released as CO 2 to the atmosphere, and affecting the global energy balance through absorption of solar radiation. Forests are also affected directly by the impact of increased CO 2 levels and temperatures on ecosystem processes, and indirectly by human responses seeking to mitigate the net emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) or adapt to new climates. This paper at...

  12. Climate Change Assessments for Lakes Region of Turkey

    OpenAIRE

    Ayten Erol

    2012-01-01

    Climate change is one of the most important challenges for forestry. Forests are known to be most efficient natural tools to ensure availability and quality of water in many regions. Besides, planning of forest resources towards water quality and quantity is essential in countries that are expected to face with more frequent drought periods in the next decades due to climate change. Watershed management concept has been supposed as the primary tool to plan natural resources in a more efficien...

  13. Irreversivle Climate Change Will Also Change Environmental Assessment and Management

    OpenAIRE

    Cairns, John

    2010-01-01

    Currently, the environmental and management methods for climate change will not be effective after irreversible climate change occurs. Without efforts to stabilize greenhouse gases, the temperature will continue to increase leading to: 1) risk to unique and threatened systems, 2) risk of extreme weather events, 3) distribution of impacts, 4) aggregate damages, and 5) risks of large-scaled discontinuities. New management systems must be put in place to protect natural capital and ecosystem se...

  14. Multi-model assessment of water scarcity under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schewe, J.; Heinke, J.; Gerten, D.; Haddeland, I.; Arnell, N. W.; Clark, D. B.; Dankers, R.; Eisner, S.; Fekete, B. M.; Colon-Gonzalez, F. J.; Gosling, S. N.; KIM, H.; Liu, X.; Masaki, Y.; Portmann, F. T.; Satoh, Y.; Stacke, T.; Tang, Q.; Wada, Y.; Wisser, D.; albrecht, T.; Frieler, K.; Piontek, F.; Warszawski, L.; Kabat, P.

    2013-12-01

    Water scarcity severely impairs food security and economic prosperity in many countries today. Expected future population changes will, in many countries as well as globally, increase the pressure on available water resources. On the supply side, renewable water resources will be affected by projected changes in precipitation patterns, temperature, and other climate variables. In the framework of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) we use a large ensemble of global hydrological models (GHMs) forced by five global climate models (GCMs) and the latest greenhouse--gas concentration scenarios (RCPs) to synthesize the current knowledge about climate change impacts on water resources. We show that climate change is likely to exacerbate regional and global water scarcity considerably. In particular, the ensemble average projects that up to a global warming of 2°C above present (approx. 2.7°C above pre--industrial), each additional degree of warming will confront an additional approx. 7% of the global population with a severe decrease in water resources; and that climate change will increase the number of people living under absolute water scarcity (five global climate models (GCMs). Color hues show the multi-model mean change, and saturation shows the agreement on the sign of change across all GHM-GCM combinations (percentage of model runs agreeing on the sign).

  15. Assessing the Agricultural Vulnerability for India under Changing Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, Tarul; Vardhan Murari, Harsha; Karmakar, Subhankar; Ghosh, Subimal; Singh, Jitendra

    2016-04-01

    Global climate change has proven to show majorly negative impacts for the far future. These negative impacts adversely affect almost all the fields including agriculture, water resources, tourism, and marine ecosystem. Among these, the effects on agriculture are considered to be of prime importance since its regional impacts can directly affect the global food security. Under such lines, it becomes essential to understand how climate change directs agricultural production for a region along with its vulnerability. In India, rice and wheat are considered as major staple diet and hence understanding its production loss/gain due to regional vulnerability to climate change becomes necessary. Here, an attempt has been made to understand the agricultural vulnerability for rice and wheat, considering yield as a function of temperature and precipitation during growing period. In order to accomplish this objective, the ratio of actual to potential evapo-transpiration has been considered which serves as a reliable indicator; with more this ratio towards unity, less vulnerable will be the region. The current objective needs an integration of climatic, hydrological and agricultural parameters; that can be achieved by simulating a climate data driven hydrologic (Variable Infiltration Capacity, VIC) model and a crop (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer, DSSAT) model. The proposed framework is an attempt to derive a crop vulnerability map that can facilitate in strategizing adaption practices which can reduce the adverse impacts of climate change in future.

  16. Assessing the sensitivity of avian species abundance to land cover and climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    LeBrun, Jaymi J.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Thompson, Frank R., III; Dijak, William D.; Millspaugh, Joshua J.

    2016-01-01

    Climate projections for the Midwestern United States predict southerly climates to shift northward. These shifts in climate could alter distributions of species across North America through changes in climate (i.e., temperature and precipitation), or through climate-induced changes on land cover. Our objective was to determine the relative impacts of land cover and climate on the abundance of five bird species in the Central United States that have habitat requirements ranging from grassland and shrubland to forest. We substituted space for time to examine potential impacts of a changing climate by assessing climate and land cover relationships over a broad latitudinal gradient. We found positive and negative relationships of climate and land cover factors with avian abundances. Habitat variables drove patterns of abundance in migratory and resident species, although climate was also influential in predicting abundance for some species occupying more open habitat (i.e., prairie warbler, blue-winged warbler, and northern bobwhite). Abundance of northern bobwhite increased with winter temperature and was the species exhibiting the most significant effect of climate. Models for birds primarily occupying early successional habitats performed better with a combination of habitat and climate variables whereas models of species found in contiguous forest performed best with land cover alone. These varied species-specific responses present unique challenges to land managers trying to balance species conservation over a variety of land covers. Management activities focused on increasing forest cover may play a role in mitigating effects of future climate by providing habitat refugia to species vulnerable to projected changes. Conservation efforts would be best served focusing on areas with high species abundances and an array of habitats. Future work managing forests for resilience and resistance to climate change could benefit species already susceptible to climate impacts.

  17. Temporal variations and change of forest fire danger in Europe in 1960–2012

    OpenAIRE

    A. Venäläinen; N. Korhonen; N. Koutsias; Xystrakis, F.; Urbieta, I. R.; J. M. Moreno

    2013-01-01

    Understanding how fire-weather danger indices changed in the past, and detecting how changes affected forest fire activity is important in changing climate. We used the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI), calculated from two reanalysis datasets, ERA 40 and ERA Interim, to examine the temporal variation of forest fire danger in Europe in 1960–2012. Additionally, we used national forest-fires statistical data from Greece and Spain to relate fire danger and fire ...

  18. Temporal variations and change in forest fire danger in Europe for 1960–2012

    OpenAIRE

    Venäläinen, A.; Korhonen, N.; O. Hyvärinen; Koutsias, N.; Xystrakis, F.; I. R. Urbieta; Moreno, J.M.

    2014-01-01

    Understanding how fire weather danger indices changed in the past and how such changes affected forest fire activity is important in a changing climate. We used the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI), calculated from two reanalysis data sets, ERA-40 and ERA Interim, to examine the temporal variation of forest fire danger in Europe in 1960–2012. Additionally, we used national forest fire statistics from Greece, Spain and Finland to examine the relationship between fire danger ...

  19. A climate change vulnerability assessment of California's at-risk birds.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas Gardali

    Full Text Available Conservationists must develop new strategies and adapt existing tools to address the consequences of anthropogenic climate change. To support statewide climate change adaptation, we developed a framework for assessing climate change vulnerability of California's at-risk birds and integrating it into the existing California Bird Species of Special Concern list. We defined climate vulnerability as the amount of evidence that climate change will negatively impact a population. We quantified climate vulnerability by scoring sensitivity (intrinsic characteristics of an organism that make it vulnerable and exposure (the magnitude of climate change expected for each taxon. Using the combined sensitivity and exposure scores as an index, we ranked 358 avian taxa, and classified 128 as vulnerable to climate change. Birds associated with wetlands had the largest representation on the list relative to other habitat groups. Of the 29 state or federally listed taxa, 21 were also classified as climate vulnerable, further raising their conservation concern. Integrating climate vulnerability and California's Bird Species of Special Concern list resulted in the addition of five taxa and an increase in priority rank for ten. Our process illustrates a simple, immediate action that can be taken to inform climate change adaptation strategies for wildlife.

  20. Dangerous scorpion fauna of Mali

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M Goyffon

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Although the main Malian scorpion species of medical interest, Androctonus amoreuxi, is responsible for severe envenomings and perhaps some deaths, it has hitherto been considered not dangerous for humans. This population is located in the Saharian North-Eastern regions of Mali where it is accompanied by Leiurus quinquestriatus, a well known dangerous species of the Sahara. In the Gao district, divided by the Niger River, less desolate than the Tessalit and Kidal regions, one specimen of the dangerous species Androctonus australis was found. To summarize, Mali harbors at least three dangerous scorpion species: Leiurus quinquestriatus, Androctonus amoreuxi and A. australis, the latter recently having been identified in Mali for the first time. The absence of Androctonus aeneas is surprising in this context because it is found in neighboring countries (Algeria, Niger and should be detected by new surveys. The possibility of preparing a single scorpion antivenom intended for Saharian and sub-Saharian populations is discussed.

  1. A modelling methodology for assessing the impact of climate variability and climatic change on hydroelectric generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A new methodology relating basic climatic variables to hydroelectric generation was developed. The methodology can be implemented in large or small basins with any number of hydro plants. The method was applied to the Sacramento, Eel and Russian river basins in northern California where more than 100 hydroelectric plants are located. The final model predicts the availability of hydroelectric generation for the entire basin provided present and near past climate conditions, with about 90% accuracy. The results can be used for water management purposes or for analyzing the effect of climate variability on hydrogeneration availability in the basin. A wide range of results can be obtained depending on the climate change scenario used. (Author)

  2. Climate in Spain: past, present and future. Regional climate change assessment report

    OpenAIRE

    Bladé, Ileana; Cacho, Isabel; Castro-Díez, Yolanda; Gomis, Damià; González-Sampériz, Penélope; Miguez-Macho, Gonzalo; Rodríguez-Fonseca, Belén; Rodríguez-Puebla, Concepción; Sánchez, Enrique; Sotillo, Marcos G.; Valero-Garcés, Blas L.; Vargas-Yáñez, Manuel

    2010-01-01

    Climate change is nowadays a reality and one of the most important challenges that humanity has to face this century, because of the threat that it represents, among others, for the economy, health, food and safety. There are increasingly more scientific evidences that we are at a critical moment, although we can still tackle the negative consequences of climate change if we take decisive actions at a global level. One of the key actions needed to meet this challenge is to gain as...

  3. Financial Consolidation: Dangers and Opportunities

    OpenAIRE

    Frederic S. Mishkin

    1999-01-01

    This paper argues that although financial consolidation creates some dangers because it is leading to larger institutions who might expose the U.S. financial system to increased systemic risk, these dangers can be handled by vigilant supervision and a government safety net with an appropriate amount of constructive ambiguity. Financial consolidation also opens up opportunities to dramatically reduce the scope of deposit insurance and limit it to narrow bank accounts, thus substantially reduci...

  4. 77 FR 17406 - National Climate Assessment and Development Advisory Committee (NCADAC) Meeting

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-03-26

    ..., Designated Federal Official, National Climate Assessment and Development Advisory Board, NOAA, Rm. 11230... received in the NCADAC DFO's office by Tuesday, April 3, 2012, to provide sufficient time for NCADAC...

  5. Completing Northeast Regional Vulnerability Assessment Incorporating the NatureServe Climate Change Vulnerability Index

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — NatureServe and Heritage Program collaborators have developed a Climate Change Vulnerability Index (CCVI) to provide a rapid, scientifically defensible assessment...

  6. A landscape-based assessment of climate change vulnerability for native Hawaiian plants

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — One common way to conduct species vulnerability assessments (VA) to climate change (CC) is to model species distributions and predict CC-related range shifts....

  7. 76 FR 11427 - National Climate Assessment Development and Advisory Committee; Request for Nominations and...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-03-02

    ... Committee; Request for Nominations and Notice of Meeting AGENCY: National Oceanic and Atmospheric... Development and Advisory Committee; Notice of Public Meeting. SUMMARY: This notice requests nominations of qualified individuals for the National Climate Assessment Development and Advisory Committee (NCADAC)...

  8. A global assessment of the impact of climate change on water scarcity

    OpenAIRE

    Simon N. Gosling; Arnell, Nigel W.

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a global scale assessment of the impact of climate change on water scarcity. Patterns of climate change from 21 Global Climate Models (GCMs) under four SRES scenarios are applied to a global hydrological model to estimate water resources across 1339 watersheds. The Water Crowding Index (WCI) and the Water Stress Index (WSI) are used to calculate exposure to increases and decreases in global water scarcity due to climate change. 1.6 (WCI) and 2.4 (WSI) billion people are es...

  9. Integrated assessment of vulnerability to climate change and options for adaptation in the Netherlands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In recent decades it has become increasingly clear that the global climate is warming and that regional climates are changing. The changes include alterations in rainfall pattern and intensities, sea level, and the frequencies of extreme weather events. Climate changes will not just have global effects, they will also occur regionally. The consequences will be felt and dealt with in our own region. In addition to studies at the European level, a study entitled 'An integrated assessment of vulnerability to climate change and adaptation options in the Netherlands' was carried out

  10. Integrated assessment of farm level adaptation to climate change in agriculture

    OpenAIRE

    Mandryk, M.

    2016-01-01

    The findings of the thesis allowed assessing plausible futures of agriculture in Flevoland around 2050 with insights in effective adaptation to climate change at different levels. Besides empirical findings, this thesis contributed methodologically to the portfolio of climate change impact and adaptation assessment. Overall, this thesis performed a prospective (using scenarios), multi-scale (taking into account crop, farm and regional level), integrated (notably multi-objective) and participa...

  11. Health Impacts of Climate Change in Vanuatu: An Assessment and Adaptation Action Plan

    OpenAIRE

    Spickett, Jeffery T; Katscherian, Dianne; McIver, Lachlan

    2013-01-01

    Climate change is one of the greatest global challenges and Pacific island countries are particularly vulnerable due to, among other factors, their geography, demography and level of economic development. A Health Impact Assessment (HIA) framework was used as a basis for the consideration of the potential health impacts of changes in the climate on the population of Vanuatu, to assess the risks and propose a range of potential adaptive responses appropriate for Vanuatu. The HIA process involv...

  12. Paste and Future Trends of Forest Fire Danger in Europe

    OpenAIRE

    CAMIA Andrea; Amatulli, Giuseppe; San-Miguel-Ayanz, Jesus

    2008-01-01

    Forest fire danger is meant to rate the component of fire risk dependent on weather conditions. Fire danger indices, normally applied on a daily bases, can be summarized for each year to rate the seasonal severity (i.e. the fire potential due to weather) and its changes over time. The index of Seasonal Severity Rating (SSR) has been derived from daily values of Van Wagner¿s Fire Weather Index (FWI, Van Wagner 1987) the fire danger assessment method most widely applied all over the world (San ...

  13. Mapping the Cultural Learnability Landscape of Danger.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark Barrett, H; Peterson, Christopher D; Frankenhuis, Willem E

    2016-05-01

    Cultural transmission is often viewed as a domain-general process. However, a growing literature suggests that learnability is influenced by content and context. The idea of a learnability landscape is introduced as a way of representing the effects of interacting factors on how easily information is acquired. Extending prior work (Barrett & Broesch, ), learnability of danger and other properties is compared for animals, artifacts, and foods in the urban American children (ages 4-5) and in the Shuar children in Ecuador (ages 4-9). There is an advantage for acquiring danger information that is strongest for animals and weakest for artifacts in both populations, with culture-specific variations. The potential of learnability landscapes for assessing biological and cultural influences on cultural transmission is discussed. PMID:27189404

  14. Assessment of impacts on ground water resources in Libya and vulnerability to climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. P. Bindra

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper is designed to present the likely impact of climate change on groundwater resources in general and Libya in particular. State of the art reviews on recent research studies, and methodology to assess the impact of climate change on groundwater resources shows that climate change poses uncertainties to the supply and management of water resources. It outlines to demonstrate that how climate change impact assessment plays a vital role in forming the sensitive water balance rarely achieved in most area owing to precipitation variability’s and seasonality. It demonstrates that how large increases in water demand with very little recharge from precipitation have strained Libya’s groundwater resources resulting in declines of groundwater levels and its quality, especially on Libyan coastal areas where most of the agriculture, domestic and industrial activities are concentrated. Based on several research studies it demonstrates that how policy and decision making process using best practices for monitoring, analyzing and forecasting variation of climate is a way forward to cope with the impact of sea level rise, and combat some water supplies in vulnerable areas that are becoming unusable due to the penetration of salt water into coastal aquifers (Jifara Plain, Sirt, Jebal El-Akhdar.Finally, a number of Global Climate Models (GCM are reviewed to demonstrate that how better understanding of climate and climate change forecasting helps in devising appropriate adaptation strategies due to the impact of climate change.

  15. Environmental tipping points significantly affect the cost-benefit assessment of climate policies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, Yongyang; Judd, Kenneth L; Lenton, Timothy M; Lontzek, Thomas S; Narita, Daiju

    2015-04-14

    Most current cost-benefit analyses of climate change policies suggest an optimal global climate policy that is significantly less stringent than the level required to meet the internationally agreed 2 °C target. This is partly because the sum of estimated economic damage of climate change across various sectors, such as energy use and changes in agricultural production, results in only a small economic loss or even a small economic gain in the gross world product under predicted levels of climate change. However, those cost-benefit analyses rarely take account of environmental tipping points leading to abrupt and irreversible impacts on market and nonmarket goods and services, including those provided by the climate and by ecosystems. Here we show that including environmental tipping point impacts in a stochastic dynamic integrated assessment model profoundly alters cost-benefit assessment of global climate policy. The risk of a tipping point, even if it only has nonmarket impacts, could substantially increase the present optimal carbon tax. For example, a risk of only 5% loss in nonmarket goods that occurs with a 5% annual probability at 4 °C increase of the global surface temperature causes an immediate two-thirds increase in optimal carbon tax. If the tipping point also has a 5% impact on market goods, the optimal carbon tax increases by more than a factor of 3. Hence existing cost-benefit assessments of global climate policy may be significantly underestimating the needs for controlling climate change. PMID:25825719

  16. Assessing vulnerability to climate change and socioeconomic stressors in the Reef Islands group, Solomon Islands

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Birk, Thomas

    2014-01-01

    This article assesses the vulnerability to climatic and socioeconomic stresses in the Reef Islands, Solomon Islands, an atoll island group in the Southwest Pacific. Climate change and the associated sea-level rise are often seen as the most pressing challenges to atoll communities, yet this study...... infrastructure, economic marginalization and weak governance of Solomon Islands. Findings suggest that some of these non-climatic stresses are currently – and in the short term – more important determinants of local vulnerability than climate change and sea-level rise. Certainly, these stresses are likely...... to be exacerbated by different elements of climate change in the short, medium and long term, but generally speaking climate change does not appear to be a major driver of the current changes in the islands. On the basis of these observations, the possible adaptation options, relevant to different time scales...

  17. Comparison of statistical downscaling methods for climate change assessment in Manitoba

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Downscaling of global climate model output is a necessary step in many climate change impact analyses. Manitoba Hydro has recently funded a project to investigate the merits of different downscaling methods for assessing the impact of climate change on river runoff in the Prairie region. The presentation will provide an overview of various statistical downscaling methods and highlight the strength and weaknesses of each method. The downscaling methods were evaluated based on a range of characteristics, including their theoretical foundation, their ability to reproduce observed climate, their ease of use, and availability of software. The downscaled climate data were used as input to the hydrologic model SLURP calibrated for several watersheds in northern Manitoba and in the Winnipeg River basin. The hydrologic model can be considered an integrator that smoothes out much of the day-to-day errors in the down-scaled climate data. The downscaling methods are also evaluated after post-processing through a hydrologic model. (author)

  18. Using Different Spatial Scales of Climate Data for Regional Climate Impact Assessment: Effect on Crop Modeling Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mereu, V.; Gallo, A.; Trabucco, A.; Montesarchio, M.; Mercogliano, P.; Spano, D.

    2015-12-01

    The high vulnerability of the agricultural sector to climate conditions causes serious concern regarding climate change impacts on crop development and production, particularly in vulnerable areas like the Mediterranean Basin. Crop simulation models are the most common tools applied for the assessment of such impacts on crop development and yields, both at local and regional scales. However, the use of these models in regional impact studies requires spatial input data for weather, soil, management, etc, whose resolution could affect simulation results. Indeed, the uncertainty in projecting climate change impacts on crop phenology and yield at the regional scale is affected not only by the uncertainty related to climate models and scenarios, but also by the downscaling methods and the resolution of climate data. The aim of this study was the evaluation of the effects of spatial resolutions of climate projections in estimating maturity date and grain yield for different varieties of durum wheat, common wheat and maize in Italy. The simulations were carried out using the CSM-CERES-Wheat and CSM-CERES-Maize crop models included in the DSSAT-CSM (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer - Cropping System Model) software, parameterized and evaluated in different experimental sites located in Italy. Dynamically downscaled climate data at different resolutions and different RCP scenarios were used as input in the crop models. A spatial platform, DSSAT-CSM based, developed in R programming language was applied to perform the simulation of maturity date and grain yield for durum wheat, common wheat and maize in each grid cell. Results, analyzed at the national and regional level, will be discussed.

  19. Assessing the impact on global climate from general anesthetic gases

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Mads P. Sulbæk; Nielsen, Ole John; Wallington, Timothy J.;

    2012-01-01

    anthropogenic radiative forcing of climate, as measured relative to the start of the industrial era (approximately 1750). The family of anesthetic gases includes several halogenated organic compounds that are strong greenhouse gases. In this short report, we provide an overview of the state of knowledge......Although present in the atmosphere with a combined concentration approximately 100,000 times lower than carbon dioxide (i.e., the principal anthropogenic driver of climate change), halogenated organic compounds are responsible for a warming effect of approximately 10% to 15% of the total...

  20. An assessment of the solar irradiance record for climate studies

    OpenAIRE

    Kopp Greg

    2014-01-01

    Total solar irradiance, the spatially and spectrally integrated radiant output from the Sun at a mean Sun-Earth distance of 1 astronomical unit, provides nearly all the energy driving the Earth’s climate system. Variations in this energy, particularly over long time scales, contribute to changes in Earth’s climate and have been linked to historical glaciation and inter-glacial periods as well as having a small effect on more recent global warming. Accurate measurements of solar irradiances re...

  1. Multi-model approach to assess the impact of climate change on runoff

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dams, J.; Nossent, J.; Senbeta, T. B.; Willems, P.; Batelaan, O.

    2015-10-01

    The assessment of climate change impacts on hydrology is subject to uncertainties related to the climate change scenarios, stochastic uncertainties of the hydrological model and structural uncertainties of the hydrological model. This paper focuses on the contribution of structural uncertainty of hydrological models to the overall uncertainty of the climate change impact assessment. To quantify the structural uncertainty of hydrological models, four physically based hydrological models (SWAT, PRMS and a semi- and fully distributed version of the WetSpa model) are set up for a catchment in Belgium. Each model is calibrated using four different objective functions. Three climate change scenarios with a high, mean and low hydrological impact are statistically perturbed from a large ensemble of climate change scenarios and are used to force the hydrological models. This methodology allows assessing and comparing the uncertainty introduced by the climate change scenarios with the uncertainty introduced by the hydrological model structure. Results show that the hydrological model structure introduces a large uncertainty on both the average monthly discharge and the extreme peak and low flow predictions under the climate change scenarios. For the low impact climate change scenario, the uncertainty range of the mean monthly runoff is comparable to the range of these runoff values in the reference period. However, for the mean and high impact scenarios, this range is significantly larger. The uncertainty introduced by the climate change scenarios is larger than the uncertainty due to the hydrological model structure for the low and mean hydrological impact scenarios, but the reverse is true for the high impact climate change scenario. The mean and high impact scenarios project increasing peak discharges, while the low impact scenario projects increasing peak discharges only for peak events with return periods larger than 1.6 years. All models suggest for all scenarios a

  2. Assessing the near-term risk of climate uncertainty : interdependencies among the U.S. states.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Loose, Verne W.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Malczynski, Leonard A.; Tidwell, Vincent Carroll; Stamber, Kevin Louis; Reinert, Rhonda K.; Backus, George A.; Warren, Drake E.; Zagonel, Aldo A.; Ehlen, Mark Andrew; Klise, Geoffrey T.; Vargas, Vanessa N.

    2010-04-01

    Policy makers will most likely need to make decisions about climate policy before climate scientists have resolved all relevant uncertainties about the impacts of climate change. This study demonstrates a risk-assessment methodology for evaluating uncertain future climatic conditions. We estimate the impacts of climate change on U.S. state- and national-level economic activity from 2010 to 2050. To understand the implications of uncertainty on risk and to provide a near-term rationale for policy interventions to mitigate the course of climate change, we focus on precipitation, one of the most uncertain aspects of future climate change. We use results of the climate-model ensemble from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report 4 (AR4) as a proxy for representing climate uncertainty over the next 40 years, map the simulated weather from the climate models hydrologically to the county level to determine the physical consequences on economic activity at the state level, and perform a detailed 70-industry analysis of economic impacts among the interacting lower-48 states. We determine the industry-level contribution to the gross domestic product and employment impacts at the state level, as well as interstate population migration, effects on personal income, and consequences for the U.S. trade balance. We show that the mean or average risk of damage to the U.S. economy from climate change, at the national level, is on the order of $1 trillion over the next 40 years, with losses in employment equivalent to nearly 7 million full-time jobs.

  3. Negativity Bias in Dangerous Drivers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chai, Jing; Qu, Weina; Sun, Xianghong; Zhang, Kan; Ge, Yan

    2016-01-01

    The behavioral and cognitive characteristics of dangerous drivers differ significantly from those of safe drivers. However, differences in emotional information processing have seldom been investigated. Previous studies have revealed that drivers with higher anger/anxiety trait scores are more likely to be involved in crashes and that individuals with higher anger traits exhibit stronger negativity biases when processing emotions compared with control groups. However, researchers have not explored the relationship between emotional information processing and driving behavior. In this study, we examined the emotional information processing differences between dangerous drivers and safe drivers. Thirty-eight non-professional drivers were divided into two groups according to the penalty points that they had accrued for traffic violations: 15 drivers with 6 or more points were included in the dangerous driver group, and 23 drivers with 3 or fewer points were included in the safe driver group. The emotional Stroop task was used to measure negativity biases, and both behavioral and electroencephalograph data were recorded. The behavioral results revealed stronger negativity biases in the dangerous drivers than in the safe drivers. The bias score was correlated with self-reported dangerous driving behavior. Drivers with strong negativity biases reported having been involved in mores crashes compared with the less-biased drivers. The event-related potentials (ERPs) revealed that the dangerous drivers exhibited reduced P3 components when responding to negative stimuli, suggesting decreased inhibitory control of information that is task-irrelevant but emotionally salient. The influence of negativity bias provides one possible explanation of the effects of individual differences on dangerous driving behavior and traffic crashes. PMID:26765225

  4. Uncertainty in runoff based on Global Climate Model precipitation and temperature data – Part 1: Assessment of Global Climate Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. A. McMahon

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Two key sources of uncertainty in projections of future runoff for climate change impact assessments are uncertainty between Global Climate Models (GCMs and within a GCM. Uncertainty between GCM projections of future climate can be assessed through analysis of runs of a given scenario from a wide range of GCMs. Within GCM uncertainty is the variability in GCM output that occurs when running a scenario multiple times but each run has slightly different, but equally plausible, initial conditions. The objective of this, the first of two complementary papers, is to reduce between-GCM uncertainty by identifying and removing poorly performing GCMs prior to the analysis presented in the second paper. Here we assess how well 46 runs from 22 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3 GCMs are able to reproduce observed precipitation and temperature climatological statistics. The performance of each GCM in reproducing these statistics was ranked and better performing GCMs identified for later analyses. Observed global land surface precipitation and temperature data were drawn from the CRU 3.10 gridded dataset and re-sampled to the resolution of each GCM for comparison. Observed and GCM based estimates of mean and standard deviation of annual precipitation, mean annual temperature, mean monthly precipitation and temperature and Köppen climate type were compared. The main metrics for assessing GCM performance were the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency index and RMSE between modelled and observed long-term statistics. This information combined with a literature review of the performance of the CMIP3 models identified the following five models as the better performing models for the next phase of our analysis in assessing the uncertainty in runoff estimated from GCM projections of precipitation and temperature: HadCM3 (Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, MIROCM (Center for Climate System Research (The University of Tokyo, National

  5. Guatemala : Investment Climate Assessment, Volume 2. Background Notes on Productivity

    OpenAIRE

    World Bank

    2008-01-01

    Guatemala has achieved substantial progress in improving its investment climate since 2004. Despite these achievements, Guatemala continues to face significant challenges. Guatemala's overall ease of doing business ranking is still relatively low-114th out of 178 countries, and it falls well behind the rankings of comparator countries such as El Salvador (69), Nicaragua (93), and Panama (6...

  6. USGCRP 2016: The Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health in the United States: A Scientific Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    This assessment strengthens and expands our understanding of climate-related health impacts by providing a more definitive description of climate-related health burdens in the United States. It builds on the 2014 USGCRP National Climate Assessment and reviews and synthesizes key ...

  7. Expert assessment of vulnerability of permafrost carbon to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schuur, E.A.G.; Abbott, B.W.; Bowden, W.B.; Brovkin, V.; Camill, P.; Canadell, J.G.; Chanton, J.P.; Chapin, F. S., III; Christensen, T.R.; Ciais, P.; Crosby, B.T.; Czimczik, C.I.; Grosse, G.; Harden, J.; Hayes, D.J.; Hugelius, G.; Jastrow, J.D.; Jones, J.B.; Kleinen, T.; Koven, C.D.; Krinner, G.; Kuhry, P.; Lawrence, D.M.; McGuire, A.D.; Natali, S.M.; O'Donnell, J. A.; Ping, C.-L.; Riley, W.J.; Rinke, A.; Romanovsky, V.E.; Sannel, A.B.K.; Schädel, C.; Schaefer, K.; Sky, J.; Subin, Z.M.; Tarnocai, C.; Turetsky, M.R.; Waldrop, M.P.; Anthony, K.M. Walter; Wickland, K.P.; Wilson, C.J.; Zimov, S.A.

    2013-01-01

    Approximately 1700 Pg of soil carbon (C) are stored in the northern circumpolar permafrost zone, more than twice as much C than in the atmosphere. The overall amount, rate, and form of C released to the atmosphere in a warmer world will influence the strength of the permafrost C feedback to climate change. We used a survey to quantify variability in the perception of the vulnerability of permafrost C to climate change. Experts were asked to provide quantitative estimates of permafrost change in response to four scenarios of warming. For the highest warming scenario (RCP 8.5), experts hypothesized that C release from permafrost zone soils could be 19–45 Pg C by 2040, 162–288 Pg C by 2100, and 381–616 Pg C by 2300 in CO2 equivalent using 100-year CH4 global warming potential (GWP). These values become 50 % larger using 20-year CH4 GWP, with a third to a half of expected climate forcing coming from CH4 even though CH4 was only 2.3 % of the expected C release. Experts projected that two-thirds of this release could be avoided under the lowest warming scenario (RCP 2.6). These results highlight the potential risk from permafrost thaw and serve to frame a hypothesis about the magnitude of this feedback to climate change. However, the level of emissions proposed here are unlikely to overshadow the impact of fossil fuel burning, which will continue to be the main source of C emissions and climate forcing.

  8. Socio-economic scenarios for climate change impact assessment : a guide to their use in the UK Climate Impacts Programme

    OpenAIRE

    2001-01-01

    Enormous challenges are faced in devising socio-economic scenarios for the assessment of future impacts and there is very little experience to draw upon. Socio-economic scenarios have not been widely used within impacts studies, but this report will serve to encourage their use more widely within the UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP). The aim has been to develop a scenarios framework through which stakeholders are able to reflect upon possible alternative futures and to make...

  9. Assessing Regional Scale Variability in Extreme Value Statistics Under Altered Climate Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brunsell, Nathaniel [University of Kansas; Mechem, David [University of Kansas; Ma, Chunsheng [Wichita State University

    2015-02-20

    Recent studies have suggested that low-frequency modes of climate variability can significantly influence regional climate. The climatology associated with extreme events has been shown to be particularly sensitive. This has profound implications for droughts, heat waves, and food production. We propose to examine regional climate simulations conducted over the continental United States by applying a recently developed technique which combines wavelet multi–resolution analysis with information theory metrics. This research is motivated by two fundamental questions concerning the spatial and temporal structure of extreme events. These questions are 1) what temporal scales of the extreme value distributions are most sensitive to alteration by low-frequency climate forcings and 2) what is the nature of the spatial structure of variation in these timescales? The primary objective is to assess to what extent information theory metrics can be useful in characterizing the nature of extreme weather phenomena. Specifically, we hypothesize that (1) changes in the nature of extreme events will impact the temporal probability density functions and that information theory metrics will be sensitive these changes and (2) via a wavelet multi–resolution analysis, we will be able to characterize the relative contribution of different timescales on the stochastic nature of extreme events. In order to address these hypotheses, we propose a unique combination of an established regional climate modeling approach and advanced statistical techniques to assess the effects of low-frequency modes on climate extremes over North America. The behavior of climate extremes in RCM simulations for the 20th century will be compared with statistics calculated from the United States Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) and simulations from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). This effort will serve to establish the baseline behavior of climate extremes, the

  10. Air Pollution and Climate Change Health Impact Assessment. The ACHIA Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Climate change may affect human health via interactions with air pollutants such as ozone and PM2.5. These air pollutants are linked to climate because they can be both affected by and have effects on climate. In coming decades, substantial, cost-effective improvements in public health may be achieved with well-planned strategies to mitigate climate impacts while also reducing health effects of ozone and PM2.5. Climate mitigation actions affect greenhouse pollutant emissions, including methane and black carbon, but also may affect other key air pollution precursors such as NOx, CO, and SOx. To better understand the potential of such strategies, studies are needed that assess possible future health impacts under alternative assumptions about future emissions and climate across multiple spatial scales. The overall objective of this project is to apply state of the art climate, air quality, and health modelling tools to assess future health impacts of ozone and PM2.5 under different IPCCs scenario of climate change, focusing specifically on pollution-related health co-benefits which could be achieved under alternative climate mitigation pathways in the period 2030-2050. This question will be explored at three spatial scales: global, regional (Europe), and urban (Paris). ACHIA is comprised of an integrated set of four work packages: WP1. Global Climate and Air Pollution Impacts of Alternative Emissions Pathways; WP2. Climate and Air Quality at Regional and Urban Scales: Results for Europe and Paris; WP3. Health Impact Assessment; WP4. Dissemination, Evaluation, Management. ACHIA is designed to create an interdisciplinary approach to the impacts of climate change on health through air quality changes, and to start longer-term collaborations between communities. We expect the project to advance state of art across all WPs, with important implications for research groups around the world. A particular innovation of the project is the multi-scale aspect, i.e., the analysis

  11. A strategy for climate evaluation of aircraft technology: an efficient climate impact assessment tool – AirClim

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Stenke

    2007-08-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is a challenge to society and to cope with requires assessment tools which are suitable to evaluate new technology options with respect to their impact on climate. Here we present AirClim, a model which comprises a linearisation of the processes occurring from the emission to an estimate in near surface temperature change, which is presumed to be a reasonable indicator for climate change. The model is designed to be applicable to aircraft technology, i.e.~the climate agents CO2, H2O, CH4 and O3 (latter two resulting from NOx-emissions and contrails are taken into account. It employs a number of precalculated atmospheric data and combines them with aircraft emission data to obtain the temporal evolution of atmospheric concentration changes, radiative forcing and temperature changes. The linearisation is based on precalculated data derived from 25 steady-state simulations of the state-of-the-art climate-chemistry model E39/C, which include sustained normalised emissions at various atmospheric regions. The results show that strongest climate impacts from ozone changes occur for emissions in the tropical upper troposphere (60 mW/m²; 80 mK for 1 TgN emitted, whereas from methane in the middle tropical troposphere (–2.7% change in methane lifetime; –30 mK per TgN. The estimate of the temperature changes caused by the individual climate agents takes into account a perturbation lifetime, related to the region of emission. A comparison of this approach with results from the TRADEOFF and SCENIC projects shows reasonable agreement with respect to concentration changes, radiative forcing, and temperature changes. The total impact of a supersonic fleet on radiative forcing (mainly water vapour is reproduced within 5%. For subsonic air traffic (sustained emissions after 2050 results show that although ozone-radiative forcing is much less important than that from CO2 for the year 2100. However the impact on temperature is of comparable size

  12. Main Dangers of Our Times.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Synek, Miroslav

    2003-03-01

    Terrorism and threatening dictatorships are the main, man-made, dangers of our times. They are run by master demagogues, or, brain-washing manipulators. ----- Our next step in coping with terrorism is to counter master demagoguery. Therefore, supporting EDUCATION that would emphasize the most unifying (and the least controversial), yet, BASIC CIVIC RESPECT for lives of people in a civilian human society, is a priority everywhere on our planet. ----- At the same time we start facing mostly small, threatening, dictatorships, capable of producing weapons of mass destruction. Therefore, we have to try to contribute to developing systems of FREE ELECTIONS, controlling weapons of mass destruction, wherever such dangers exist. ----- In a foreseeable future, unfortunately, we are facing a danger even by orders of magnitude greater. We are facing a possibility of a mass-produced heavy accumulation of inter-continental nuclear missiles, on a computerized "push-button" control, by a very powerful (and, quite possibly, miscalculating, or, suicidal) dictator, dangerous to the very existence of humanity on our planet. Therefore, it is a historical urgency that such a technological power be under the control by a government of the people, by the people and for the people, based on a sufficiently reliable system of FREE ELECTIONS, wherever, on our planet, such a potential danger may originate.

  13. Assessment of the need and options for a climate act; Arviointi ilmastolain vaihtoehdoista ja tarpeellisuudesta

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kokko, K.; Helenius, H.; Juhola, S.; Kulmala, M.; Ollikainen, M.; Savolainen, I.; Seppaelae, J.

    2012-11-15

    This report examines the need for a Climate Act and explores its various options. Current climate regulation reveals significant weaknesses and deficiencies, particularly in planning and coordinating the guidance activities of public authorities in the area of climate change mitigation and adaptation. The weaknesses and deficiencies are aimed to correct by using the regulation of monitoring, reporting and planning under one of the options for a Climate Act. In addition to presenting the current model and the model of a framework act (2+), this report describes the British climate act model and the model outlined in a preliminary report by Ekroos and Warsta. Moreover, the report includes an assessment of the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats of the different models. In the current model, climate regulation that guides the activities of public authorities is not only strategy-driven, but also, with regard to substantive climate regulation that guides private stakeholders, disintegrated and not always robust enough. The climate policy measures of Finnish public authorities contain gaps that should be filled with a government-coordinated Climate Act. The Act should set binding long- and short-term objectives for climate change mitigation and adaptation, and the objectives should translate into efficient public action through particularly designed policy programmes. In addition, monitoring both the achievement of these objectives and greenhouse gas emissions could benefit from regulation, and parliamentary scrutiny could be increased in the area of climate policy. The Climate Act and the objectives enshrined in it will increase the predictability of climate policy as well as harmonise and assemble disparate regulations. Recording the guiding principles in a separate section of the Act would reinforce their role in decision-making based on the Act. The Climate Act should apply not only to the emissions trading sector and non-ETS (emissions trading scheme

  14. Integrated assessment of vulnerability to climate change and adaptation options in the Netherlands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In recent decades, it has become increasingly clear that the global climate is becoming warmer and that regional climates are changing. This report summarizes the results of an integrated assessment of vulnerability to climate change and adaptation options in the Netherlands carried out between July 2000 and July 2001 within the framework of the Dutch National Research Program on Global Air Pollution and Climate Change (NRP-2). The project's main aims were: - to provide an overview of scientific insights, expert judgements and stakeholders' perceptions of current and future impacts (positive and negative) of climate change for several economic sectors, human health, and natural systems in the Netherlands, considering various cross-sectoral interactions, - to develop a set of adaptation options for these sectors through a participatory process with the main stakeholders, - to perform an integrated assessment of cross-sectoral interactions of climate change impacts and adaptation options. Climate change impacts and adaptation options have been investigated for several important economic sectors (including agriculture, forestry, fisheries, industry, energy, transport, insurance and recreation and tourism), human health and natural systems (including soils, water and biodiversity issues).The results of this study are based on literature survey, a dialogue with experts and stakeholders. We are convinced that the report represents the most essential and relevant aspects of the impacts and adaptation options for climate change in the Netherlands, given the scenario setting of this study, the state of the art of current scientific knowledge, and today's expert and stakeholders' perceptions of the issues at stake. 215 refs

  15. Potentially dangerous glacial lakes in Kyrgyzstan - Research overview of 2004-2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jansky, Bohumir; Yerokhin, Sergey; Sobr, Miroslav; Engel, Zbynek; Cerny, Michal; Falatkova, Kristyna; Kocum, Jan; Benes, Vojtech

    2016-04-01

    Global warming causes intensive melting and retreat of glaciers in most of high mountains all over the world. This process is also evident in the mountain regions of central Tien Shan. Glacier melt water affects changes in hydrological regime of water streams and causes overfilling of high mountain lake basins. The dams of many lakes are very unstable and can burst open. To determine the degree of such risk, it is necessary to analyse the genesis of lakes, to characterize the morphology of the lake basins and to know the particularities of their hydrological regime. According to the latest inventory within territory of Kyrgyzstan, a total of 1328 lakes have been identified as potentially dangerous, 12 lakes are considered as currently dangerous, other 25 feature high potential hazard. Since 1952 more than 70 disastrous cases of lake outburst have been registered. The hazardous alpine lakes are studied in Kyrgyzstan systematically since 1966. Since 2004, Czech-Kyrgyz research team has been operating in Kyrgyzstan in the field of dangerous glacial lakes. Projects were focused primarily on high-mountain glacial lakes risk assessment, propositions of risk mitigation measures, establishment of permanent research station near one of the studied glacier complexes, preparation of risk analysis for selected endangered valleys, evaluation of climatic and hydrological data and glacier development within observed regions. The most significant portion of data and information has been gathered during field work, complemented by satellite image analysis and surveillance flights over the monitored sites.

  16. The Colorado Climate Preparedness Project: A Systematic Approach to Assessing Efforts Supporting State-Level Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klein, R.; Gordon, E.

    2010-12-01

    Scholars and policy analysts often contend that an effective climate adaptation strategy must entail "mainstreaming," or incorporating responses to possible climate impacts into existing planning and management decision frameworks. Such an approach, however, makes it difficult to assess the degree to which decisionmaking entities are engaging in adaptive activities that may or may not be explicitly framed around a changing climate. For example, a drought management plan may not explicitly address climate change, but the activities and strategies outlined in it may reduce vulnerabilities posed by a variable and changing climate. Consequently, to generate a strategic climate adaptation plan requires identifying the entire suite of activities that are implicitly linked to climate and may affect adaptive capacity within the system. Here we outline a novel, two-pronged approach, leveraging social science methods, to understanding adaptation throughout state government in Colorado. First, we conducted a series of interviews with key actors in state and federal government agencies, non-governmental organizations, universities, and other entities engaged in state issues. The purpose of these interviews was to elicit information about current activities that may affect the state’s adaptive capacity and to identify future climate-related needs across the state. Second, we have developed an interactive database cataloging organizations, products, projects, and people actively engaged in adaptive planning and policymaking that are relevant to the state of Colorado. The database includes a wiki interface, helping create a dynamic component that will enable frequent updating as climate-relevant information emerges. The results of this project are intended to paint a clear picture of sectors and agencies with higher and lower levels of adaptation awareness and to provide a roadmap for the next gubernatorial administration to pursue a more sophisticated climate adaptation agenda

  17. [Dangerous states and mental health disorders: perceptions and reality].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tassone-Monchicourt, C; Daumerie, N; Caria, A; Benradia, I; Roelandt, J-L

    2010-01-01

    Image of Madness was always strongly linked with the notion of "dangerousness", provoking fear and social exclusion, despite the evolution of psychiatric practices and organisation, and the emphasis on user's rights respect. Mediatization and politicization of this issue through news item combining crime and mental illness, reinforce and spread out this perception. This paper presents a review of the litterature on social perceptions associating "dangerousness", "Insanity" and "mental illness", available data about the link between "dangerous states" and "psychiatric disorders", as well as the notion of "dangerousness" and the assessment of "dangerous state" of people suffering or not from psychiatric disorders. MAPPING OF SOCIAL REPRESENTATIONS: The French Survey "Mental Health in General Population: Images and Realities (MHGP)" was carried out between 1999 and 2003, on a representative sample of 36.000 individuals over 18 years old. It aims at describing the social representations of the population about "insanity/insane" and "mental illness/mentally ill". The results show that about 75% of the people interviewed link "insanity" or "mental illness" with "criminal or violent acts". Young people and those with a high level of education more frequently categorize violent and dangerous behaviours in the field of Mental illness rather than in that of madness. CORRELATION BETWEEN DANGEROUS STATE AND PSYCHIATRIC DISORDERS: in the scientific literature, all experts reject the hypothesis of a direct link between violence and mental disorder. Besides, 2 tendencies appear in their conclusions: on one hand, some studies establish a significative link between violence and severe mental illness, compared with the general population. On the other hand, results show that 87 to 97% of des aggressors are not mentally ills. Therefore, the absence of scientific consensus feeds the confusion and reinforce the link of causality between psychiatric disorders and violence. OFFICIAL

  18. NOAA's Coral Reef Conservation Program: 2016 projects to assess coral resilence and the resilence of communities to climate change

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — In 2016 the following projects will take place to assess coral resilence and the resilence of communities to climate change: Climate and resilience-based...

  19. Climate Change Effects and Impacts Assessment. A guidance manual for Local Government in New Zealand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Climate change is a real and internationally recognised outcome of increased amounts of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. It will have effects over the next decades that are predictable with some level of certainty, but which will vary from place to place throughout New Zealand. The climate will also change from year to year and decade to decade due to natural processes. For example, some parts of the country often have dry summers and autumns when an El Nino climate pattern is present. Both natural fluctuations and human-induced climate changes need to be considered when developing adaptation plans and policies, rather than just 'greenhouse warming' effects on their own. Councils already address extreme weather events and climate variations as they develop plans and provide services. Climate change effects need also to be considered as part of these regulatory, assessment and planning activities. It is not necessary to develop a set of procedures for dealing separately with effects and impacts of climate change - they can be built into existing practices. Over time, climate change responses will involve iterative planning processes, keeping up-to-date with new information, monitoring changes, and reviewing the effectiveness of responses. The response to climate change involves international, national, regional, district and community consideration and action. The Guidance Manual aims to assist local government in working with its communities and making appropriate decisions.

  20. A Review of Questionnaire Measures for Assessing the Social Climate in Prisons and Forensic Psychiatric Hospitals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tonkin, Matthew

    2016-09-01

    Significant time and resources are devoted to the monitoring of social climate in secure settings. However, if these efforts are to help (rather than hinder) attempts to improve the functioning of such units, the monitoring of social climate must be based on sound psychometric methods. The aim of this review was to determine what questionnaires exist to measure the social climate in secure settings and what evidence exists regarding their psychometric properties. Twelve questionnaire-based measures of social climate were identified. The Essen Climate Evaluation Schema has received the most consistent empirical support, but this questionnaire does not provide as much of an in-depth, detailed insight into social climate as that provided by other social climate questionnaires. Although more extensive measures of climate exist, they have not yet received sufficient validation to justify their routine use in practice. Nevertheless, there is growing evidence that some questionnaire-based measures can provide a reliable and valid assessment of the social climate in secure settings, which has important clinical and theoretical implications. PMID:25850103

  1. The sensitivity of agricultural impacts assessment to climate data and scenario methodologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruane, A. C.; Rosenzweig, C.

    2011-12-01

    Assessments of climate change impacts on the agricultural sector are crucially important from the farm- to global levels. While impacts assessments have made wide and creative use of data products, climate models, and methods for downscaling and scenario generation, this variety also hinders our ability to compare impacts from one study to other assessments. The unique nature of many impacts assessments is especially problematic when evaluating the impacts of climate change on large agricultural regions and global production; a crucial scale in understanding the economic impacts and market influence on food security and land use. This presentation examines the influence of methodological choices on agricultural impacts assessment by describing results from several projects. First, the utility of a wide variety of global and regional observational data products are compared for an agricultural system in the Florida Panhandle to determine the influence of observational uncertainties, reanalysis products, remotely sensed information, and downscaled models on impacts assessment. Second, the role of future climate scenarios is isolated by running the same Panhandle station with scenarios generated through a variety of generation methods with a focus on downscaling methodologies and the climate statistics allowed to change. Finally, an ensemble of weather generators are compared across an ensemble of wheat models in a variety of major agricultural regions, isolating important sensitivities in the crop models and corresponding strengths and weaknesses in the weather generators.

  2. Past climate reconstruction: a tool for assessing site suitability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reconstructing past climatic variations can lead to a better understanding of possible future precipitation and groundwater recharge patterns. Work so far has led to several new insights into past climate variability and will provide input into the hydrologic modeling effort in progress for the Waste Management Program. Short-term reconstructions (0 to 350 y) suggest that the basin and range of the southwestern United States have the driest, least variable precipitation record. The Pacific Northwest shows higher variability and several trends lasting for more then 25 y. The Southern High Plains have even more variability, but the upper Midwest and Southwest vary most and have the highest precipitation amounts. Pollen and lake level data from the literature suggest that the Southwest was wetter during at least part of the last glacial maximum than it is today

  3. Assessment of cold-climate environmental research priorities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    States, J.B.

    1983-04-01

    The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has consistently recognized that cold regions pose unique environmental problems. This report sets forth the conceptual framework and research plans for several high priority research areas. It provides the fundamental basis for implementation of the EPA Cold-Climate Environmental Research Program. This three- to five-year program encompasses both short- and long-term research of high relevance to the EPA and to the cold regions that it serves.

  4. Microindentation assessment of climatic loading impacts on polymer sealants

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Minster, Jiří; Šašek, Petr

    Prague: Institute of theoretical and applied mechanics, Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic, v. v. i., 2015 - (Náprstek, J.; Fischer, C.), s. 202-203 ISBN 978-80-86246-42-0. ISSN 1805-8248. [Engineering mechanics 2015 /21./. Svratka (CZ), 11.05.2015-14.05.2015] R&D Projects: GA MK(CZ) DF12P01OVV017 Keywords : microindentation * climatic loading * polymer sealants Subject RIV: AL - Art, Architecture, Cultural Heritage

  5. Optimal Contracting for Cattle Feeding: An Assessment of Climatic Conditions

    OpenAIRE

    Rahman, Shaikh Mahfuzur

    2010-01-01

    A unique approach using a biophysical growth model from the animal science literature is used to examine optimal contract cattle feeding behavior under alternative climatic conditions. The examination of incentives and outcomes in an unusually comprehensive contract parameter and behavioral space is made possible by combining simulated feedlot and carcass performance of a large set of cattle with public price and weather data. The model uniquely fits typical risk aversion levels and rationali...

  6. Man and the climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The aim of this report is explain and balance the real dangers associated with the climate changes that may result from human activities, those which lack some scientific background, and the precaution and prudence needs which are claimed by human beings and society. The main parts of the report are: the scientific aspects of climate changes (inventory of present knowledge, assessment of uncertainties; what are greenhouse effect, which sectors of human activities are emitting greenhouse gases, what are the threats for our planet); the international negotiations on climate (their stakes and problematic since the start of the 90's, is a world consensus possible?); the room for maneuver on economical, social and technological levels in order to decrease the greenhouse gas emissions and allocate the application of solutions between States, enterprises and citizens

  7. BASINS and WEPP Climate Assessment Tools (CAT): Case Study Guide to Potential Applications (External Review Draft)

    Science.gov (United States)

    This draft report supports application of two recently developed water modeling tools, the BASINS and WEPP climate assessment tools. The report presents a series of short case studies designed to illustrate the capabilities of these tools for conducting scenario based assessments...

  8. BASINS 4.0 CLIMATE ASSESSMENT TOOL (CAT): SUPPORTING DOCUMENTATION AND USER'S MANUAL (FINAL REPORT)

    Science.gov (United States)

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Global Change Research Program (GCRP) is an assessment-oriented program within the Office of Research and Development that focuses on assessing how potential changes in climate and other global environmental stressors may impact water qu...

  9. Lao PDR - Investment Climate Assessment : Policies to Promote Growth in the Non-Resource Sectors

    OpenAIRE

    World Bank

    2011-01-01

    The second Lao PDR investment climate assessment identifies the key constraints of the country's non-resource sector firms. This Assessment summarizes the results of a national survey conducted in late-2009 and draws on extensive interviews with policymakers and practitioners. Survey results reveal the nature of constraints that various non-resource sector firms in Lao PDR currently face. ...

  10. Economic assessment of climate adaptation options for urban drainage design in Odense, Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhou, Qianqian; Halsnæs, Kirsten; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

    2011-01-01

    risk quantification and assessment of appropriated adaptation actions in term of costs and benefits. This paper represents an economic assessment of three prevailing climate adaptation options for urban drainage design in a Danish case study, Odense. A risk-based evaluation framework is used to give...

  11. Crop modelling for integrated assessment of risk to food production from climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ewert, F; Rötter, R P; Bindi, M;

    2015-01-01

    The complexity of risks posed by climate change and possible adaptations for crop production has called for integrated assessment and modelling (IAM) approaches linking biophysical and economic models. This paper attempts to provide an overview of the present state of crop modelling to assess cli...

  12. Rapid systematic assessment of the detection and attribution of regional anthropogenic climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stone, Dáithí A.; Hansen, Gerrit

    2015-11-01

    Despite being a well-established research field, the detection and attribution of observed climate change to anthropogenic forcing is not yet provided as a climate service. One reason for this is the lack of a methodology for performing tailored detection and attribution assessments on a rapid time scale. Here we develop such an approach, based on the translation of quantitative analysis into the "confidence" language employed in recent Assessment Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. While its systematic nature necessarily ignores some nuances examined in detailed expert assessments, the approach nevertheless goes beyond most detection and attribution studies in considering contributors to building confidence such as errors in observational data products arising from sparse monitoring networks. When compared against recent expert assessments, the results of this approach closely match those of the existing assessments. Where there are small discrepancies, these variously reflect ambiguities in the details of what is being assessed, reveal nuances or limitations of the expert assessments, or indicate limitations of the accuracy of the sort of systematic approach employed here. Deployment of the method on 116 regional assessments of recent temperature and precipitation changes indicates that existing rules of thumb concerning the detectability of climate change ignore the full range of sources of uncertainty, most particularly the importance of adequate observational monitoring.

  13. Carbon dioxide dangers demonstration model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Venezky, Dina; Wessells, Stephen

    2010-01-01

    Carbon dioxide is a dangerous volcanic gas. When carbon dioxide seeps from the ground, it normally mixes with the air and dissipates rapidly. However, because carbon dioxide gas is heavier than air, it can collect in snowbanks, depressions, and poorly ventilated enclosures posing a potential danger to people and other living things. In this experiment we show how carbon dioxide gas displaces oxygen as it collects in low-lying areas. When carbon dioxide, created by mixing vinegar and baking soda, is added to a bowl with candles of different heights, the flames are extinguished as if by magic.

  14. How to account for irreversibility in integrated assessment of climate change?; Comment tenir compte de l'irreversibilite dans l'evaluation integree du changement climatique?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ha Duong, M

    1998-04-15

    How to account for irreversibility in integrated assessment of climate change? This Ph. D. thesis in Economics balances discounting, technical progress and the inertia of existing capital stock against uncertainty and the inertia of socio-economic systems to examine the issue of near term limitations of greenhouse gases emissions. After a general overview in chapter 2, and a more historical presentation of the debates in chapter 3, chapter 4 proceeds to review a large number of integrated assessment models. Chapter 5 introduces a Model on the Dynamics of Inertia and Adaptability of energy systems: DIAM, used to discuss how much previous studies might have overestimated the long term costs of CO{sub 2} limitations and underestimated adjustment costs. It shows that, given a target date for atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration stabilisation, a higher inertia implies a lower optimal concentration trajectory. In a sequential decision framework, chapter 6 shows that current uncertainties about which CO{sub 2} concentration ceiling would not present dangerous interference with the climate system justifies precautionary action. Finally, chapter 7 uses the irreversibility effect theory to define formally situations of decision under controversy and compare the irreversibility of CO{sub 2} accumulation with the irreversibility of investments needed to moderate it. An option value for greenhouse gases emissions limitations is computed. (author)

  15. The Kyoto protocol: assessment and perspectives. Towards a new regime up to the climate stake

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This report proposes an analysis within the context of transition of the climate regime from the 'before-2012' regime to the 'post-2020' regime. It first gives an overview of international stakes and context (lack of ambition for climate policy, perspective of an international agreement from 2020). Then, the authors recall the history and achievements of the Kyoto protocol which is the basis of the present climate policy regime. They propose an assessment of actions performed by countries during the first period of the protocol, and focus on the present climate regime elements which are to be safeguarded. They analyse the weaknesses of the present regime, and propose possible improvements for the future post-2020 climate regime

  16. Assessing climate impacts of planning policies-An estimation for the urban region of Leipzig (Germany)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Local climate regulation by urban green areas is an important urban ecosystem service, as it reduces the extent of the urban heat island and therefore enhances quality of life. Local and regional planning policies can control land use changes in an urban region, which in turn alter local climate regulation. Thus, this paper describes a method for estimating the impacts of current land uses as well as local and regional planning policies on local climate regulation, using evapotranspiration and land surface emissivity as indicators. This method can be used by practitioners to evaluate their policies. An application of this method is demonstrated for the case study Leipzig (Germany). Results for six selected planning policies in Leipzig indicate their distinct impacts on climate regulation and especially the role of their spatial extent. The proposed method was found to easily produce a qualitative assessment of impacts of planning policies on climate regulation.

  17. A New Framework for Spatio-temporal Climate Change Impact Assessment for Terrestrial Wildlife

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lankford-Bingle, Amber J.; Svancara, Leona K.; Vierling, Kerri

    2015-12-01

    We describe a first step framework for climate change species' impact assessments that produces spatially and temporally heterogeneous models of climate impacts. Case study results are provided for great gray owl ( Strix nebulosa) in Idaho as an example of framework application. This framework applies species-specific sensitivity weights to spatial and seasonal models of climate exposure to produce spatial and seasonal models of climate impact. We also evaluated three methods of calculating sensitivity by comparing spatial models of combined exposure and sensitivity. We found the methods used to calculated sensitivity showed little difference, except where sensitivity was directional (i.e., more sensitive to an increase in temperature than a decrease). This approach may assist in the development of State Wildlife Action Plans and other wildlife management plans in the face of potential future climate change.

  18. Assessment of the effect of climate change on the hydrological cycle

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karlsson, Ida Bjørnholt

    (shortened) Climate change is a well-established problem that humanity is facing in this century. However, predicting and evaluating projected future changes in climate are subject to a range of uncertainties, this is also true when assessing future hydrological conditions. This Ph.D. study focuses...... on hydrological impacts and modelling uncertainties of two Danish catchments. This is investigated by calibrating a simple lumped hydrological model under non-stationary historical climate conditions. The model showed deteriorating performance for periods outside the period where the model was...... choosing a specific impact study setup was also investigated by simulating and analysing results from three factors; four climate models in combinations with three hydrological models and four land use scenarios. Results showed that the climate model was the dominant uncertainty factor on stream flow and...

  19. Selection of climate policies under the uncertainties in the Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drouet, L.; Bosetti, V.; Tavoni, M.

    2015-10-01

    Strategies for dealing with climate change must incorporate and quantify all the relevant uncertainties, and be designed to manage the resulting risks. Here we employ the best available knowledge so far, summarized by the three working groups of the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5; refs , , ), to quantify the uncertainty of mitigation costs, climate change dynamics, and economic damage for alternative carbon budgets. We rank climate policies according to different decision-making criteria concerning uncertainty, risk aversion and intertemporal preferences. Our findings show that preferences over uncertainties are as important as the choice of the widely discussed time discount factor. Climate policies consistent with limiting warming to 2 °C above preindustrial levels are compatible with a subset of decision-making criteria and some model parametrizations, but not with the commonly adopted expected utility framework.

  20. Dangerous Goods Transport Problems in the European Union and Poland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriel Nowacki

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The paper refers to threat assessment of dangerous goods (DG in transportation of the European Union and the Republic of Poland. Dangerous goods in the European Union are carried by inland waterways, rail and road. In Poland 87.5% of DG have been carried by road and 12.5% by rail in 2014. DG can cause an accident and lead to fires, explosions and chemical poisoning or burning with considerable harm to people and the environment. There is not monitoring system in Poland to control in real time road transportation of dangerous goods. Proposition of National System of Monitoring Dangerous Goods in Poland was presented. Realization of mentioned kind of system may significantly contribute to improving safety of people and environment.

  1. On the importance of observational data properties when assessing regional climate model performance of extreme precipitation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sunyer Pinya, Maria Antonia; Sørup, Hjalte Jomo Danielsen; Christensen, Ole Bøssing;

    2013-01-01

    In recent years, there has been an increase in the number of climate studies addressing changes in extreme precipitation. A common step in these studies involves the assessment of the climate model performance. This is often measured by comparing climate model output with observational data. In the...... majority of such studies the characteristics and uncertainties of the observational data are neglected. This study addresses the influence of using different observational datasets to assess the climate model performance. Four different datasets covering Denmark using different gauge systems and comprising...... datasets, the RCMs are ranked according to their performance using two different metrics. These are based on the error in representing the indices and the spatial correlation. In comparison to the mean, extreme precipitation indices are highly dependent on the spatial resolution of the observations. The...

  2. Socio-economic and climate change impacts on agriculture: an integrated assessment, 1990-2080.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, Günther; Shah, Mahendra; Tubiello, Francesco N; van Velhuizen, Harrij

    2005-11-29

    A comprehensive assessment of the impacts of climate change on agro-ecosystems over this century is developed, up to 2080 and at a global level, albeit with significant regional detail. To this end an integrated ecological-economic modelling framework is employed, encompassing climate scenarios, agro-ecological zoning information, socio-economic drivers, as well as world food trade dynamics. Specifically, global simulations are performed using the FAO/IIASA agro-ecological zone model, in conjunction with IIASAs global food system model, using climate variables from five different general circulation models, under four different socio-economic scenarios from the intergovernmental panel on climate change. First, impacts of different scenarios of climate change on bio-physical soil and crop growth determinants of yield are evaluated on a 5' X 5' latitude/longitude global grid; second, the extent of potential agricultural land and related potential crop production is computed. The detailed bio-physical results are then fed into an economic analysis, to assess how climate impacts may interact with alternative development pathways, and key trends expected over this century for food demand and production, and trade, as well as key composite indices such as risk of hunger and malnutrition, are computed. This modelling approach connects the relevant bio-physical and socio-economic variables within a unified and coherent framework to produce a global assessment of food production and security under climate change. The results from the study suggest that critical impact asymmetries due to both climate and socio-economic structures may deepen current production and consumption gaps between developed and developing world; it is suggested that adaptation of agricultural techniques will be central to limit potential damages under climate change. PMID:16433094

  3. Comparative Risk Assessment to Inform Adaptation Priorities for the Natural Environment: Observations from the First UK Climate Change Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iain Brown

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Risk assessment can potentially provide an objective framework to synthesise and prioritise climate change risks to inform adaptation policy. However, there are significant challenges in the application of comparative risk assessment procedures to climate change, particularly for the natural environment. These challenges are evaluated with particular reference to the first statutory Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA and evidence review procedures used to guide policy for the UK government. More progress was achieved on risk identification, screening and prioritisation compared to risk quantification. This was due to the inherent complexity and interdependence of ecological risks and their interaction with socio-economic drivers as well as a climate change. Robust strategies to manage risk were identified as those that coordinate organisational resources to enhance ecosystem resilience, and to accommodate inevitable change, rather than to meet specific species or habitats targets. The assessment also highlighted subjective and contextual components of risk appraisal including ethical issues regarding the level of human intervention in the natural environment and the proposed outcomes of any intervention. This suggests that goals for risk assessment need to be more clearly explicated and assumptions on tolerable risk declared as a primer for further dialogue on expectations for managed outcomes. Ecosystem-based adaptation may mean that traditional habitats and species conservation goals and existing regulatory frameworks no longer provide the best guide for long-term risk management thereby challenging the viability of some existing practices.

  4. Assessing Flood Risk at Nuclear Power Plants with an Uncertain Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wigmosta, M. S.; Vail, L. W.

    2011-12-01

    In 2010 a tsunami severely damaged the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant in Japan. As a result, the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission directed that a systematic and methodical review of Commission processes and regulations be performed to determine whether the agency should make additional improvements to its regulatory system and to make recommendations to the Commission. Two of the recommendations of the Task Force created to inform the Commission were: establish a logical, systematic, and coherent regulatory framework for adequate protection that appropriately balances defense-in-depth and risk considerations and that the NRC require licensees to reevaluate and upgrade as necessary the design-basis flooding protection of structures, systems, and components for each operating reactor. These recommendations came at the same time as technical discussions about updating approaches to evaluate flood hazard were underway. These discussions included: consideration of climate nonstationarity in flood assessments; transitioning from PMP/PMF assessments to probabilistic flood analyses to better align with risk-informed decision making; and systematic consideration of combined events in flood risk analysis. There is no scientific basis to assume that shifts in long-term mean precipitation and temperature (such as is commonly derived from climate models) relate to flood probability. Flood mechanisms are often more complex and reflect climate pattern anomalies more than mean annual shifts. Instead of discounting historical data due to climatic nonstationarity, it is important to better understand the climate patterns that have triggered floods in the past and to look to climate forecasts to understand the likely changes in the frequency of those historical climate patterns with climate change. It is equally important to have a better understanding of whether climate change will result in flood-generating climate systems heretofore unknown in the particular locale. This

  5. The treatment of climate science in Integrated Assessment Modelling: integration of climate step function response in an energy system integrated assessment model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dessens, Olivier

    2016-04-01

    Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) are used as crucial inputs to policy-making on climate change. These models simulate aspect of the economy and climate system to deliver future projections and to explore the impact of mitigation and adaptation policies. The IAMs' climate representation is extremely important as it can have great influence on future political action. The step-function-response is a simple climate model recently developed by the UK Met Office and is an alternate method of estimating the climate response to an emission trajectory directly from global climate model step simulations. Good et al., (2013) have formulated a method of reconstructing general circulation models (GCMs) climate response to emission trajectories through an idealized experiment. This method is called the "step-response approach" after and is based on an idealized abrupt CO2 step experiment results. TIAM-UCL is a technology-rich model that belongs to the family of, partial-equilibrium, bottom-up models, developed at University College London to represent a wide spectrum of energy systems in 16 regions of the globe (Anandarajah et al. 2011). The model uses optimisation functions to obtain cost-efficient solutions, in meeting an exogenously defined set of energy-service demands, given certain technological and environmental constraints. Furthermore, it employs linear programming techniques making the step function representation of the climate change response adapted to the model mathematical formulation. For the first time, we have introduced the "step-response approach" method developed at the UK Met Office in an IAM, the TIAM-UCL energy system, and we investigate the main consequences of this modification on the results of the model in term of climate and energy system responses. The main advantage of this approach (apart from the low computational cost it entails) is that its results are directly traceable to the GCM involved and closely connected to well-known methods of

  6. Assessing Portuguese Guadiana Basin water management impacts under climate change and paleoclimate variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maia, Rodrigo; Oliveira, Bruno; Ramos, Vanessa; Brekke, Levi

    2014-05-01

    The water balance in each reservoir and the subsequent, related, water resource management decisions are, presently, highly information dependent and are therefore often limited to a reactive response (even if aimed towards preventing future issues regarding the water system). Taking advantage of the availability of scenarios for climate projections, it is now possible to estimate the likely future evolution of climate which represents an important stepping stone towards proactive, adaptative, water resource management. The purpose of the present study was to assess the potential effects of climate change in terms of temperature, precipitation, runoff and water availability/scarcity for application in water resource management decisions. The analysis here presented was applied to the Portuguese portion of the Guadiana River Basin, using a combination of observed climate and runoff data and the results of the Global Climate Models. The Guadiana River Basin was represented by its reservoirs on the Portuguese portion of the basin and, for the future period, an estimated value of the inflows originating in the Spanish part of the Basin. The change in climate was determined in terms of relative and absolute variations of climate (precipitation and temperature) and hydrology (runoff and water balance related information). Apart from the previously referred data, an hydrological model and a water management model were applied so as to obtain an extended range of data regarding runoff generation (calibrated to observed data) and water balance in the reservoirs (considering the climate change impacts in the inflows, outflows and water consumption). The water management model was defined in order to represent the reservoirs interaction including upstream to downstream discharges and water transfers. Under the present climate change context, decision-makers and stakeholders are ever more vulnerable to the uncertainties of climate. Projected climate in the Guadiana basin

  7. Assessing the impact of climate variability and human activities on streamflow variation

    OpenAIRE

    Chang, J.; Zhang, H.; Wang, Y.; Zhu, Y

    2015-01-01

    Water resources in river systems have been changing under the impact of both climate variability and human activities. Assessing the respective impact on decadal streamflow variation is important for water resource management. By using an elasticity-based method and calibrated TOPMODEL and VIC hydrological models, we quantitatively isolated the relative contributions that human activities and climate variability made to decadal streamflow changes in Jinghe basin, located in ...

  8. Assessing the impact of climate variability and human activity to streamflow variation

    OpenAIRE

    Chang, J.; Zhang, H.; Wang, Y.; Zhu, Y

    2015-01-01

    Water resources in river systems have been changing under the impacts of both climate variability and human activities. Assessing the respective impacts on decadal streamflow variation is important for water resources management. By using an elasticity-based method, calibrated TOPMODEL and VIC hydrologic models, we have quantitatively isolated the relative contributions that human activity and climate variability made to decadal streamflow changes in Jinhe b...

  9. Assessing the impact of climate variability and human activities on streamflow variation

    OpenAIRE

    Chang, Jianxia; Zhang, Hongxue; Wang, Yimin; Zhu, Yuelu

    2016-01-01

    Water resources in river systems have been changing under the impact of both climate variability and human activities. Assessing the respective impact on decadal streamflow variation is important for water resource management. By using an elasticity-based method and calibrated TOPMODEL and VIC hydrological models, we quantitatively isolated the relative contributions that human activities and climate variability made to decadal streamflow changes in the Jinghe basin, located...

  10. Comparison of Models for Climate Change Assessment of River Basin Runoff

    OpenAIRE

    Yates, D.; Strzepek, K.M.

    1994-01-01

    Two lumped-integral conceptual models, a non-parametric regression model and two annual "screening" models are used to compare the impact of climate variability on 5 basins at varying spatial scale and climactic characteristics around the world. Where data were available, different time steps were used to address the influence of the temporal scale on climate impact assessment of river runoff. The purpose of this exercise is to gain insight into the general applicability of these models and a...

  11. An integrated method for assessing climate-related risks and adaptation alternatives in urban areas

    OpenAIRE

    Yvonne Andersson-Sköld; Sofia Thorsson; David Rayner; Fredrik Lindberg; Sara Janhäll; Anna Jonsson; Ulf Moback; Ramona Bergman; Mikael Granberg

    2015-01-01

    The urban environment is a complex structure with interlinked social, ecological and technical structures. Global warming is expected to have a broad variety of impacts, which will add to the complexity. Climate changes will force adaptation, to reduce climate-related risks. Adaptation measures can address one aspect at the time, or aim for a holistic approach to avoid maladaptation. This paper presents a systematic, integrated approach for assessing alternatives for reducing the risks of hea...

  12. Assessing the continuity of the blue ice climate record at Patriot Hills, Horseshoe Valley, West Antarctica

    OpenAIRE

    Winter, Kate; Woodward, John; Dunning, Stuart; Turney, Chris; Fogwill, Christopher; Hein, Andrew; Golledge, Nicholas; Bingham, Robert; Marrero, Shasta; Sugden, David; Ross, Neil

    2016-01-01

    We use high resolution Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR) to assess the continuity of the Blue Ice Area (BIA) horizontal climate record at Patriot Hills, Horseshoe Valley, West Antarctica. The sequence contains three pronounced changes in deuterium isotopic values at ~18 cal ka, ~12 cal ka and ~8 cal ka. GPR surveys along the climate sequence reveal continuous, conformable dipping isochrones, separated by two unconformities in the isochrone layers, which correlate with the two older deuterium shi...

  13. STUDYING OF SAFETY CLIMATE ASSESSMENT: A CASE STUDY AT STEEL INDUSTRY

    OpenAIRE

    Hassan DARVISH; Mehdi ROOSTAEI; Azizi, Saeed

    2011-01-01

    Evolution of safety climate used as a practical means has determined and assessed potential problems relevant to safety issues in an organization and can be used in individuals’ performance and work efficiency and decreasing rate of incidents ;as well as; guidance to provide safety organization policy and comparison of safety performance in different organizations. The study wants to determine and prepare safety climate profile and application of its results in improving safety situation. In ...

  14. Assessing Local Vulnerability to Climate Change in Agriculture for Tocantins, Brazil

    OpenAIRE

    Guerrero-Escobar, Santiago; Juarez-Torres, Miriam; Martinez Cruz, Adan

    2014-01-01

    We propose a reliable indicator of vulnerability to climate change in agriculture that allows assessing within the system the main components of vulnerability at a local level: stressors exposure (SE), stressors sensitivity (SS), and adaptive capacity (AC). Also, this indicator will allow identifying main vulnerability drivers and planning policies to increase system resiliency as well as designing climate change adaptation policies at the local level.

  15. A three-pillar approach to assessing climate impacts on low flows

    OpenAIRE

    G. Laaha; Parajka, J.; Viglione, A.; Koffler, D.; K. Haslinger; Schöner, W.; Zehetgruber, J.; G. Blöschl

    2015-01-01

    The objective of this paper is to present a new strategy for assessing climate impacts on low flows and droughts. The strategy is termed a three-pillar approach as it combines different sources of information. The first pillar, trend extrapolation, exploits the temporal patterns of observed low flows and extends them into the future. The second pillar, rainfall–runoff projections uses precipitation and temperature scenarios from climate models as an input to...

  16. Empirical Assessment of Climate Change on Major Agricultural Crops of Punjab, Pakistan

    OpenAIRE

    Afzal, Muhammad; Ahmed, Tanvir; Ahmed, Gulzar

    2016-01-01

    Global warming is exacerbating climate affect on agricultural productivity. The objective of present study is the empirical assessment of climate change on three major agricultural crops of Punjab, Pakistan. A variant of Cobb-Douglas production function is used for the panel data of the districts of Punjab covering period 1981 to 2012.Overall findings of the study reveal that temperature has positive impact on the production of wheat crops during the planting and harvesting stage. However, t...

  17. West Bank and Gaza - Investment Climate Assessment : Unlocking the Potential of the Private Sector

    OpenAIRE

    World Bank

    2007-01-01

    It is the purpose of this Investment Climate Assessment (ICA) to look at what hinders the move of the Palestinians to new markets and what can be done to encourage it. The ICA reveals that shrinking market access and the lack of free movement are the main constraints to growth for Palestinian enterprises. Relative to other countries in the region, the Palestinian investment climate is good...

  18. Climate change and forests: Impacts and adaption. A regional assessment for the Western Ghats, India

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ravindranath, N.H.; Sukumar, R. [Indian Inst. of Science, Bangalore (India). Centre for Ecological Sciences; Deshingkar, P. [Stockholm Environment Inst. (Sweden)

    1997-12-31

    Potential climate change over the next 50 to 100 years could have major impacts on tropical forests. Forests, particularly in the tropics, are subjected to anthropogenic pressures leading to degradation and loss of forest ecosystems. Given the significant dependence of local people and economies on forests in tropical and temperate countries, there is a need to assess the possible impacts of climate change and to develop adaption measures. The diversity of forest types in the Western Ghats ranges from wet evergreen and deciduous forest to dry thorn and montane forests with a wide range of annual rainfall regimes (from less than 65 cm to over 300 cm). The study was conducted in two regions of the Western Ghats; the Uttara Kannada district and the Nilgiris. Climate change projections for 2020 and 2050 were used in assessing the possible impacts on forests. In general, the `most likely` projections of climate change were an increase in mean temperature in the range of 0.3-1.0 deg C and an increase in precipitation of 3-8% over the study regions by the year 2050. The `worst case` scenario was an increase in temperature of 1 deg C and a decrease in precipitation by 8% by 2050. To assess the vegetational responses to climate change, a simple model based on present-day correlations between climatic (mean annual temperature and precipitation) and vegetation types for these regions was developed. Likely changes in the areas under different forest types were assessed for `moderate climate` sensitivity and central scaling factor (referred to as the `most likely scenario`) for the years 2020 and 2050, and `high climate` sensitivity and a lower scaling factor (the `worst case scenario`) for 2050 90 refs, 15 figs, 15 tabs

  19. Socio-economic and Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture: An Integrated Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Fischer, G.; Shah, M. M.; Tubiello, F.N.; H.T. van Velthuizen

    2005-01-01

    A comprehensive assessment of the impacts of climate change on agro- ecosystems over this century is developed, up to 2080 and at a global level, albeit with significant regional detail. To this end an integrated ecological- economic modelling framework is employed, encompassing climate scenarios, agro-ecological zoning information, socio-economic drivers, as well as world food trade dynamics. Specifically, global simulations are performed using the FAO/IIASA agro-ecological zone model, in...

  20. Socio-economic and climate change impacts on agriculture: an integrated assessment, 1990–2080

    OpenAIRE

    Fischer, Günther; Shah, Mahendra; N. Tubiello, Francesco; van Velhuizen, Harrij

    2005-01-01

    A comprehensive assessment of the impacts of climate change on agro-ecosystems over this century is developed, up to 2080 and at a global level, albeit with significant regional detail. To this end an integrated ecological–economic modelling framework is employed, encompassing climate scenarios, agro-ecological zoning information, socio-economic drivers, as well as world food trade dynamics. Specifically, global simulations are performed using the FAO/IIASA agro-ecological zone model, in conj...

  1. Assessment of the relative role of climate change and human activities in desertification:A review

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    XU Duanyang; LI Chunlei; ZHUANG Dafang; PAN Jianjun

    2011-01-01

    Climate change and human activities are the two kinds of driving forces in desertification,and assessing their relative role in desertification is of great significance to deeply understanding the driving mechanisms and preventing desertification expansion.This paper has systematically reviewed the progress of the researches on assessing the relative role of climate change and human activities in desertification from qualitative,semi-quantitative and quantitative aspects respectively.The authors found that there were still some problems in the previous researches.For example,the subjectivity in assessment was obvious,the assessment cannot be easily repeated,and the assessment and its results were always based on administrative regions and less taken and expressed in a continuous space.According to the progress of previous researches and the works conducted by the authors recently,we put forward a quantitative approach by selecting NPP as a common indicator to measure the relative role of climate change and human activities in desertification and dividing the ecological process of “driving force effect-dynamic response of desertified land” into several scenarios.Meanwhile,validation and scale of assessment should be taken into account when quantitative assessment of the relative role of climate change and human activities in desertification are carried out.

  2. Sea Extremes: Integrated impact assessment in coastal climate adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Carlo Sass; Knudsen, Per; Broge, Niels;

    2016-01-01

    We investigate effects of sea level rise and a change in precipitation pattern on coastal flooding hazards. Historic and present in situ and satellite data of water and groundwater levels, precipitation, vertical ground motion, geology,and geotechnical soil properties are combined with flood...... protection measures, topography, and infrastructure to provide a more complete picture of the water-related impact from climate change at an exposed coastal location. Results show that future sea extremes evaluated from extreme value statistics may, indeed, have a large impact. The integrated effects from...

  3. A climate treaty and the Norwegian economy: A CGE assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper examines the impact of an international climate treaty on a single country-Norway. A disaggregate computable general equilibrium (CGE) model is used. We discuss the treaty's effects on main macroeconomic indicators, economic growth, distributional impacts, the impact on pollutant emissions other than CO2, and the secondary benefits of this reduction. The results suggest that CO2 emissions will decrease compared to the current level. The distributional impacts are modest. Increases in secondary benefits recoup almost one half of the loss in private consumption. We characterize the uncertainty of this estimate. 21 refs., 4 figs., 6 tabs

  4. Flaming alcoholic drinks: flirting with danger.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Alethea; Frew, Quentin; Yousif, Ali; Ueckermann, Nicola; Dziewulksi, Peter

    2014-01-01

    Alcohol-related burn injuries carry significant mortality and morbidity rates. Flaming alcoholic beverages served in trendy bars and clubs are becoming increasingly popular. The dangers associated with an ignited alcoholic drink are often underestimated by party goers whose risk assessment ability is already impaired by heavy alcohol consumption. The authors present two cases demonstrating the varied severity of burn injuries associated with flaming alcoholic drinks, and their clinical management. Consumption of flaming alcoholic drinks poses potential risks for burn injuries. Further support is required to enable national and local agencies to implement effective interventions in drinking environments. PMID:24043236

  5. Addressing Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Together: A Global Assessment of Agriculture and Forestry Projects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kongsager, Rico; Locatelli, Bruno; Chazarin, Florie

    2016-01-01

    to greenhouse gas emissions and removals, are vulnerable to climate variations, and form part of adaptive strategies for rural livelihoods. We assessed how climate change project design documents (PDDs) considered a joint contribution to adaptation and mitigation in forestry and agriculture in the tropics......Adaptation and mitigation share the ultimate purpose of reducing climate change impacts. However, they tend to be considered separately in projects and policies because of their different objectives and scales. Agriculture and forestry are related to both adaptation and mitigation: they contribute...

  6. Future projections of fire danger in Brazilian biomes in the 21st century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Libonati, Renata; Silva, Patrícia; DaCamara, Carlos; Bastos, Ana

    2016-04-01

    In the global context, Brazil is one of the regions more severely affected by fire occurrences, with important consequences in the global CO2 balance, the state of the Amazon forest and the ecological diversity of the region. Brazil is also one of the few regions experiencing a raise in annual mean temperature above 2.5o during the 20th century, which may further increase between 2o and 7o until 2100 and, likely, be accompanied by a decrease in precipitation [1]. As the fire occurrence and severity largely depends on these two variables, it is worth assessing the evolution of fire danger for the coming decades. In order to obtain a detailed characterization of the future fire patterns in the different biomes of Brazil, we use outputs from a regional-downscaling of the EC-Earth climate model at 0.44 degrees spatial resolution for two future scenarios, an intermediate (RCP4.5) and a more severe (RCP8.5) one. We use a fire danger index specifically developed for the Brazilian climate and biome characteristics, the IFR from INPE. This index relies on values of maximum temperature, accumulated precipitation over different periods, minimum relative humidity and vegetation cover to estimate the likelihood of fire occurrence. We find a systematic increase of the days with critical fire risk, which is more pronounced in RCP8.5 and mostly affects months when fire activity takes place. Temperature increase is the most determinant factor for the increase in fire danger in the dry regions of savannah and shrubland, a result to be expected as fuel is already very dry. [1] Collins, M., R. Knutti, J. Arblaster, J.-L. Dufresne, T. Fichefet, P. Friedlingstein, X. Gao, W.J. Gutowski, T. Johns, G. Krinner, M. Shongwe, C. Tebaldi, A.J. Weaver and M. Wehner, 2013: Long-term Climate Change: Projections, Commitments and Irreversibility. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on

  7. The Northern Climate Exchange Gap Analysis Project : an assessment of the current state of knowledge about the impacts of climate change in northern Canada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Northern Climate ExChange (NCE) Gap Analysis Project was launched in 1999 with an objective to assess the state of knowledge on climate change in northern Canada. Resulting products of the project have included the Infosource Database, an on-line database of published climate change research related to the Canadian North, the Directory of Contacts, another on-line database of interested parties to climate change issues, and a set of tables that rate the level of available information on climate change as it relates to natural, economic and community systems. Other products include a report of a workshop on climate change research, 2 reports assessing the level of traditional northern knowledge about climate change, 2 reports assessing the completeness and value of the Infosource Database, a web site for NCE, and this report. All products are available to the public on the Internet or on a CD-ROM. The NCE Gap Analysis Project has shown there are inequalities in the amount of information across different systems, and that there is more knowledge on predicted temperature changes than for other climate components. The study notes that there are strong regional trends for compiled knowledge, with some regions having been better studied than others. The project revealed that traditional knowledge of climate change has not been well documented, and that more information exists about climate change impacts on biological systems with an economic component than those without economic significance. refs., tabs., figs

  8. OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE IN AN ASSESSMENT OF THE DANGER OF THE CONSEQUENCES OF PEACEFUL NUCLEAR EXPLOSIONS ON THE EXAMPLE OF FACILITY «DNEPR»

    OpenAIRE

    E. V. Hramcov; K. V. Varfolomeeva; S. A. Zelencova; G. V. Arhangel’skaja; Repin, V S; N. M. Vishnjakova

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of research was to assess the dynamics of the changes during the five-year period (from 2008 to 2013) of the radiation situation in the territory adjacent to the places of the peaceful nuclear explosions of the “Dnepr” series in the Murmansk region, the analysis of information environment of the subject in the Internet and the study of the population public opinion.Gamma-radiation dose rate registered in the investigated territory in 2013 (140 – 180 nSv/h) corresponded to the natu...

  9. Assessing pricing assumptions for weather index insurance in a changing climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J.D. Daron

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Weather index insurance is being offered to low-income farmers in developing countries as an alternative to traditional multi-peril crop insurance. There is widespread support for index insurance as a means of climate change adaptation but whether or not these products are themselves resilient to climate change has not been well studied. Given climate variability and climate change, an over-reliance on historical climate observations to guide the design of such products can result in premiums which mislead policyholders and insurers alike, about the magnitude of underlying risks. Here, a method to incorporate different sources of climate data into the product design phase is presented. Bayesian Networks are constructed to demonstrate how insurers can assess the product viability from a climate perspective, using past observations and simulations of future climate. Sensitivity analyses illustrate the dependence of pricing decisions on both the choice of information, and the method for incorporating such data. The methods and their sensitivities are illustrated using a case study analysing the provision of index-based crop insurance in Kolhapur, India. We expose the benefits and limitations of the Bayesian Network approach, weather index insurance as an adaptation measure and climate simulations as a source of quantitative predictive information. Current climate model output is shown to be of limited value and difficult to use by index insurance practitioners. The method presented, however, is shown to be an effective tool for testing pricing assumptions and could feasibly be employed in the future to incorporate multiple sources of climate data.

  10. Assessments of regional climate change and its impacts in Northern Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Omstedt, Anders; von Storch, Hans; Reckermann, Marcus; Quante, Markus

    2015-04-01

    Regional climate change assessments are urgently needed to complement the big picture with regional results and scenarios of higher resolution and with relevance for local decision makers and stakeholders. A new type of assessment report originated in the original BACC report of 2008 (BALTEX Assessment of Climate Change for the Baltic Sea region) which has served as role model for other assessments published or in preparation. It represents an approach to assessing and making available current knowledge on regional climate change and its regional impacts on the physical, biogeochemical and biological environment (ecosystems, socio-economic sphere). Reports of this type which are available or underway are the original BACC book (2008), the second BACC book (2015), the climate report for the greater Hamburg area (2011), and the NOSCCA report (North Sea Climate Change Assessment) which is expected to be published in 2016. The assessments are produced by teams of scientists from the region, led by lead authors who recruit experts from relevant topics to contribute. The process is not externally funded and completely based on published scientific evidence, and not biased by political or economic interest groups. The BACC-type reports aim to bring together consolidated knowledge that has broad consensus in the scientific community, but also acknowledging issues for which contradicting opinions are found in the literature, so that no consensus can be reached ("consensus on dissensus"). An international steering committee is responsible for overlooking the process, and all manuscripts are anonymously peer-reviewed by independent international experts. An outstanding outreach aspect of these reports is the close collaboration with regional stakeholders (for the BACC reports: HELCOM, the intergovernmental Baltic Marine Environment Protection Commission and the major regional science-policy interface in the Baltic Sea region; for the Hamburg climate report: the Hamburg city

  11. Climate change impact assessment on food security in Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ettema, Janneke; Aldrian, Edvin; de Bie, Kees; Jetten, Victor; Mannaerts, Chris

    2013-04-01

    As Indonesia is the world's fourth most populous country, food security is a persistent challenge. The potential impact of future climate change on the agricultural sector needs to be addressed in order to allow early implementation of mitigation strategies. The complex island topography and local sea-land-air interactions cannot adequately be represented in large scale General Climate Models (GCMs) nor visualized by TRMM. Downscaling is needed. Using meteorological observations and a simple statistical downscaling tool, local future projections are derived from state-of-the-art, large-scale GCM scenarios, provided by the CMIP5 project. To support the agriculture sector, providing information on especially rainfall and temperature variability is essential. Agricultural production forecast is influenced by several rain and temperature factors, such as rainy and dry season onset, offset and length, but also by daily and monthly minimum and maximum temperatures and its rainfall amount. A simple and advanced crop model will be used to address the sensitivity of different crops to temperature and rainfall variability, present-day and future. As case study area, Java Island is chosen as it is fourth largest island in Indonesia but contains more than half of the nation's population and dominates it politically and economically. The objective is to identify regions at agricultural risk due to changing patterns in precipitation and temperature.

  12. Environmental impact assessment of the national climate strategy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The national climate strategy aims at fulfilling the obligations to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases in accordance with the Kyoto protocol. The environmental impacts of the strategy were analysed by comparing a business as usual scenario with two scenarios based on additional measures. Both scenarios with additional measures are based on more emphasis on energy saving and use of renewable sources of energy, but they differ with respect to energy production. The environmental consequences until 2010 are similar in the scenarios with additional measures, and they are better from an environmental point of view than the business as usual scenario. Many of the measures have significant effects only in the long term, and all have indirect effects, opportunities and uncertain factors. Some measures can create societal conflicts, which further increases the uncertainty in implementing the climate strategy. In order to be able to adapt to and react on deviations from the development that the strategy aims at achieving the monitoring of the strategy should examine the implementation from many different aspects, because profound knowledge of the nature of the effects and key cause and effects relations is essential in revising and updating the strategy. (orig.)

  13. Arctic Holocene proxy climate database – new approaches to assessing geochronological accuracy and encoding climate variables

    OpenAIRE

    Sundqvist, H. S.; Kaufman, D S; N. P. McKay; Balascio, N.L.; Briner, J.P.; Cwynar, L. C.; H. P. Sejrup; Seppä, H.; Subetto, D.A.; Andrews, J. T.; Y. Axford; Bakke, J.; H. J. B. Birks; Brooks, S.J.; de Vernal, A.

    2014-01-01

    We present a systematic compilation of previously published Holocene proxy climate records from the Arctic. We identified 170 sites from north of 58° N latitude where proxy time series extend back at least to 6 cal ka (all ages in this article are in calendar years before present – BP), are resolved at submillennial scale (at least one value every 400 ± 200 years) and have age models constrained by at least one age every 3000 years. In addition to conventional metadata for e...

  14. Arctic Holocene proxy climate database – New approaches to assessing geochronological accuracy and encoding climate variables

    OpenAIRE

    Sundqvist, H. S.; Kaufman, D S; N. P. McKay; Balascio, N.L.; Briner, J.P.; Cwynar, L. C.; H. P. Sejrup; Seppä, H.; Subetto, D.A.; Andrews, J. T.; Y. Axford; Bakke, J.; H. J. B. Birks; Brooks, S.J.; de Vernal, A.

    2014-01-01

    We present a systematic compilation of previously published Holocene proxy climate records from the Arctic. We identified 170 sites from north of 58° N latitude where proxy time series extend back at least to 6 cal ka (all ages in this article are in calendar years before present – BP), are resolved at submillennial scale (at least one value every 400 ± 200 years) and have age models constrained by at least one age every 3000 years. In addition to conventional metadata for each proxy record (...

  15. Assessing the impact of costly punishment and group size in collective-risk climate dilemmas

    CERN Document Server

    Jiang, Luo-Luo; Zhou, Chang-Song; Kurths, Jurgen; Moreno, Yamir

    2016-01-01

    The mitigation of the effects of climate change on humankind is one of the most pressing and important collective governance problems nowadays$^{1-4}$. To explore different solutions and scenarios, previous works have framed this problem into a Public Goods Game (PGG), where a dilemma between short-term interests and long-term sustainability arises$^{5-9}$. In such a context, subjects are placed in groups and play a PGG with the aim of avoiding dangerous climate change impact. Here we report on a lab experiment designed to explore two important ingredients: costly punishment to free-riders and group size. Our results show that for high punishment risk, more groups succeed in achieving the global target, this finding being robust against group size. Interestingly enough, we also find a non-trivial effect of the size of the groups: the larger the size of the groups facing the dilemmas, the higher the punishment risk should be to achieve the desired goal. Overall, the results of the present study shed more light...

  16. Future projection of Indian summer monsoon variability under climate change scenario: An assessment from CMIP5 climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharmila, S.; Joseph, S.; Sahai, A. K.; Abhilash, S.; Chattopadhyay, R.

    2015-01-01

    In this study, the impact of enhanced anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions on the possible future changes in different aspects of daily-to-interannual variability of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) is systematically assessed using 20 coupled models participated in the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5. The historical (1951-1999) and future (2051-2099) simulations under the strongest Representative Concentration Pathway have been analyzed for this purpose. A few reliable models are selected based on their competence in simulating the basic features of present-climate ISM variability. The robust and consistent projections across the selected models suggest substantial changes in the ISM variability by the end of 21st century indicating strong sensitivity of ISM to global warming. On the seasonal scale, the all-India summer monsoon mean rainfall is likely to increase moderately in future, primarily governed by enhanced thermodynamic conditions due to atmospheric warming, but slightly offset by weakened large scale monsoon circulation. It is projected that the rainfall magnitude will increase over core monsoon zone in future climate, along with lengthening of the season due to late withdrawal. On interannual timescales, it is speculated that severity and frequency of both strong monsoon (SM) and weak monsoon (WM) might increase noticeably in future climate. Substantial changes in the daily variability of ISM are also projected, which are largely associated with the increase in heavy rainfall events and decrease in both low rain-rate and number of wet days during future monsoon. On the subseasonal scale, the model projections depict considerable amplification of higher frequency (below 30 day mode) components; although the dominant northward propagating 30-70 day mode of monsoon intraseasonal oscillations may not change appreciably in a warmer climate. It is speculated that the enhanced high frequency mode of monsoon ISOs due to increased GHG induced warming

  17. Climate services for the assessment of climate change impacts and risks in coastal areas at the regional scale: the North Adriatic case study (Italy).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valentina, Gallina; Torresan, Silvia; Giannini, Valentina; Rizzi, Jonathan; Zabeo, Alex; Gualdi, Silvio; Bellucci, Alessio; Giorgi, Filippo; Critto, Andrea; Marcomini, Antonio

    2013-04-01

    At the international level, the interest for climate services is rising due to the social and economic benefits that different stakeholders can achieve to manage climate risks and take advantage of the opportunities associated with climate change impacts. However, there is a significant gap of tools aimed at providing information about risks and impacts induced by climate change and allowing non-expert stakeholders to use both climate-model and climate-impact data. Within the CLIM-RUN project (FP7), the case study of the North Adriatic Sea is aimed at analysing the need of climate information and the effectiveness of climate services for the integrated assessment of climate change impacts in coastal zones of the North Adriatic Sea at the regional to local scale. A participative approach was developed and applied to identify relevant stakeholders which have a mandate for coastal zone management and to interact with them in order to elicit their climate information needs. Specifically, the participative approach was carried out by means of two local workshops and trough the administration of a questionnaire related to climate information and services. The results of the process allowed identifying three major themes of interest for local stakeholders (i.e. hydro-climatic regime, coastal and marine environment, agriculture) and their preferences concerning key climate variables (e.g. extreme events, sea-level, wave height), mid-term temporal projections (i.e. for the next 30-40 years) and medium-high spatial resolution (i.e. from 1 to 50 km). Furthermore, the workshops highlighted stakeholder concern about several climate-related impacts (e.g. sea-level rise, storm surge, droughts) and vulnerable receptors (e.g. beaches, wetlands, agricultural areas) to be considered in vulnerability and risk assessment studies for the North Adriatic coastal zones. This information was used by climate and environmental risk experts in order to develop targeted climate information and

  18. Tools and Techniques for Basin-Scale Climate Change Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zagona, E.; Rajagopalan, B.; Oakley, W.; Wilson, N.; Weinstein, P.; Verdin, A.; Jerla, C.; Prairie, J. R.

    2012-12-01

    The Department of Interior's WaterSMART Program seeks to secure and stretch water supplies to benefit future generations and identify adaptive measures to address climate change. Under WaterSMART, Basin Studies are comprehensive water studies to explore options for meeting projected imbalances in water supply and demand in specific basins. Such studies could be most beneficial with application of recent scientific advances in climate projections, stochastic simulation, operational modeling and robust decision-making, as well as computational techniques to organize and analyze many alternatives. A new integrated set of tools and techniques to facilitate these studies includes the following components: Future supply scenarios are produced by the Hydrology Simulator, which uses non-parametric K-nearest neighbor resampling techniques to generate ensembles of hydrologic traces based on historical data, optionally conditioned on long paleo reconstructed data using various Markov Chain techniuqes. Resampling can also be conditioned on climate change projections from e.g., downscaled GCM projections to capture increased variability; spatial and temporal disaggregation is also provided. The simulations produced are ensembles of hydrologic inputs to the RiverWare operations/infrastucture decision modeling software. Alternative demand scenarios can be produced with the Demand Input Tool (DIT), an Excel-based tool that allows modifying future demands by groups such as states; sectors, e.g., agriculture, municipal, energy; and hydrologic basins. The demands can be scaled at future dates or changes ramped over specified time periods. Resulting data is imported directly into the decision model. Different model files can represent infrastructure alternatives and different Policy Sets represent alternative operating policies, including options for noticing when conditions point to unacceptable vulnerabilities, which trigger dynamically executing changes in operations or other

  19. Assessment of the Climate Vulnerabilities of the Arabian Peninsula

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alharbi, T.; Sultan, M.; Ahmed, M.; Chouinard, K.

    2014-12-01

    The Arabian Peninsula (AP), like many places around the world, is apparently witnessing the impacts (amount, patterns, and frequency of precipitation) of global warming. Precipitation over the AP is largely controlled by two main wind regimes, the winter (October to March) northerlies or northwesterlies, hereafter referred to as westerlies, and the summer (April to September) monsoonal wind regimes. The global monthly Climate Prediction Centers (CPC) Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP) data (spatial resolution: 2.5° × 2.5°; temporal resolution: monthly; operational period: January 1979 to November 2011) was used to investigate the nature and magnitude of precipitation variations over the AP throughout 1979 - 2010. Trends in CMAP-derived precipitation patterns were examined over the winter and summer seasons throughout Periods I (1979-1995) and II (1996-2010). Reversals in precipitation patterns were observed in Periods I and II, where areas witnessing an increase in precipitation in Period I showed a decrease in precipitation throughout Period II, and vice versa for the remaining areas. Our findings suggest: (1) an increase in precipitation during Period I over the southeastern and southwestern coastal areas of AP (e.g., Muscat, Sanaa, and Jeddah) that is probably related to the intensification of the monsoons at the expense of the westerlies, (2) an increase in precipitation during Period II over the northwestern and southeastern of AP (e.g., northwestern Saudi Arabia, Empty Quarter, western and southwestern Oman, and eastern Yemen) is here attributed to intensification of the westerlies, and 3) the general similarity of annual trend patterns to the summer trend (Period I) and to winter trend (Period II) suggest that the annual trends are largely controlled by monsoonal wind regimes in Period I and by the westerlies in Period II. Outputs (i.e., precipitation) of climatic models (CCSM4.0) over the AP are being extracted (for upcoming 100 years) , downscaled

  20. Taming the Climate Emergency: Geoengineering and Ethics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Markku Oksanen

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available In this article, we shed some light into two questions with regard to te idea of climate emergency and dangerous climate change: Presuming that the negative effects of climate change can occur abruptly we want to investigate, in particular, whether there is any kind of rational basis to the conclusion that a state of climate emergency would require geoengineering implementations such as solar radiation management (SRM. Related to this, we will pose the question whether there can be exemptions from conventional morality justified by climate emergency for instance to use such largely untested geoengineering methods like SRM. We will take a look at SRM from an ethical point of view and analyze the concept of climate emergency and its policy relevance in order to assess the moral justification for the implementation of SRM.

  1. Development of a Simple Framework to Assess Hydrological Extremes using Solely Climate Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foulon, E.; Gagnon, P.; Rousseau, A. N.

    2014-12-01

    Extreme flow conditions such as droughts and floods are in general the direct consequences of short- to long-term weather/climate anomalies. For example, in southern Quebec, Canada, winter and summer 7-day low flows are due to summer and fall precipitations. Which prompts the question: is it possible to assess future extreme flow conditions from meteorological/climate indices or should we rely on the classical approach of using outputs of climate models as input to a hydrological model? The objective of this study is to assess six hydrological indices describing extreme flows at the watershed scale (Qmax, Qmin;7d, Qmin;30d for two seasons: winter and summer) using local climate indices without relying on the aforementioned classical approach. To establish the relationship between climate and hydrological indices, daily precipitations, minimum and maximum temperatures from 89 climate projections are used as inputs to a distributed hydrological model. River flows are simulated at the outlet of the Yamaska and Bécancour watersheds in Québec for the 1961-2100 periods. To identify the best predictors, hydrological indices are extracted from the flow series, and climate indices are computed for different time intervals (from a day up to four years). The difference between four-month, cumulative, climatic demand (P-ETP) explains 69% of the 7-day summer low flow during the calibration process. For both watersheds, preliminary findings indicate that the selected indices explain, on average, 38 and 60% of the variability of high- and low-flow indices, respectively. Overall, the results clearly illustrate that the change in the hydrological indices can be detected through the concurrent trends in the climate indices. The use of many climate projections ensures the relationships are not simulation-dependent and shows summer events are particularly at risk with increasing high flows and decreasing low flows. The development of a simple predictive tool to assess the impact of

  2. Validating a work group climate assessment tool for improving the performance of public health organizations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tracy Allison

    2005-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background This article describes the validation of an instrument to measure work group climate in public health organizations in developing countries. The instrument, the Work Group Climate Assessment Tool (WCA, was applied in Brazil, Mozambique, and Guinea to assess the intermediate outcomes of a program to develop leadership for performance improvement. Data were collected from 305 individuals in 42 work groups, who completed a self-administered questionnaire. Methods The WCA was initially validated using Cronbach's alpha reliability coefficient and exploratory factor analysis. This article presents the results of a second validation study to refine the initial analyses to account for nested data, to provide item-level psychometrics, and to establish construct validity. Analyses included eigenvalue decomposition analysis, confirmatory factor analysis, and validity and reliability analyses. Results This study confirmed the validity and reliability of the WCA across work groups with different demographic characteristics (gender, education, management level, and geographical location. The study showed that there is agreement between the theoretical construct of work climate and the items in the WCA tool across different populations. The WCA captures a single perception of climate rather than individual sub-scales of clarity, support, and challenge. Conclusion The WCA is useful for comparing the climates of different work groups, tracking the changes in climate in a single work group over time, or examining differences among individuals' perceptions of their work group climate. Application of the WCA before and after a leadership development process can help work groups hold a discussion about current climate and select a target for improvement. The WCA provides work groups with a tool to take ownership of their own group climate through a process that is simple and objective and that protects individual confidentiality.

  3. Representative Agricultural Pathways and Climate Impact Assessment for Pacific Northwest Agricultural Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    MU, J.; Antle, J. M.; Zhang, H.; Capalbo, S. M.; Eigenbrode, S.; Kruger, C.; Stockle, C.; Wolfhorst, J. D.

    2013-12-01

    Representative Agricultural Pathways (RAPs) are projections of plausible future biophysical and socio-economic conditions used to carry out climate impact assessments for agriculture. The development of RAPs iss motivated by the fact that the various global and regional models used for agricultural climate change impact assessment have been implemented with individualized scenarios using various data and model structures, often without transparent documentation or public availability. These practices have hampered attempts at model inter-comparison, improvement, and synthesis of model results across studies. This paper aims to (1) present RAPs developed for the principal wheat-producing region of the Pacific Northwest, and to (2) combine these RAPs with downscaled climate data, crop model simulations and economic model simulations to assess climate change impacts on winter wheat production and farm income. This research was carried out as part of a project funded by the USDA known as the Regional Approaches to Climate Change in the Pacific Northwest (REACCH). The REACCH study region encompasses the major winter wheat production area in Pacific Northwest and preliminary research shows that farmers producing winter wheat could benefit from future climate change. However, the future world is uncertain in many dimensions, including commodity and input prices, production technology, and policies, as well as increased probability of disturbances (pests and diseases) associated with a changing climate. Many of these factors cannot be modeled, so they are represented in the regional RAPS. The regional RAPS are linked to global agricultural and shared social-economic pathways, and used along with climate change projections to simulate future outcomes for the wheat-based farms in the REACCH region.

  4. Extreme Rainfall Events Over Southern Africa: Assessment of a Climate Model to Reproduce Daily Extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, C.; Kniveton, D.; Layberry, R.

    2007-12-01

    It is increasingly accepted that any possible climate change will not only have an influence on mean climate but may also significantly alter climatic variability. This issue is of particular importance for environmentally vulnerable regions such as southern Africa. The subcontinent is considered especially vulnerable extreme events, due to a number of factors including extensive poverty, disease and political instability. Rainfall variability and the identification of rainfall extremes is a function of scale, so high spatial and temporal resolution data are preferred to identify extreme events and accurately predict future variability. The majority of previous climate model verification studies have compared model output with observational data at monthly timescales. In this research, the assessment of a state-of-the-art climate model to simulate climate at daily timescales is carried out using satellite derived rainfall data from the Microwave Infra-Red Algorithm (MIRA). This dataset covers the period from 1993-2002 and the whole of southern Africa at a spatial resolution of 0.1 degree longitude/latitude. Once the model's ability to reproduce extremes has been assessed, idealised regions of SST anomalies are used to force the model, with the overall aim of investigating the ways in which SST anomalies influence rainfall extremes over southern Africa. In this paper, results from sensitivity testing of the UK Meteorological Office Hadley Centre's climate model's domain size are firstly presented. Then simulations of current climate from the model, operating in both regional and global mode, are compared to the MIRA dataset at daily timescales. Thirdly, the ability of the model to reproduce daily rainfall extremes will be assessed, again by a comparison with extremes from the MIRA dataset. Finally, the results from the idealised SST experiments are briefly presented, suggesting associations between rainfall extremes and both local and remote SST anomalies.

  5. Methods for Assessing Uncertainties in Climate Change, Impacts and Responses (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manning, M. R.; Swart, R.

    2009-12-01

    Assessing the scientific uncertainties or confidence levels for the many different aspects of climate change is particularly important because of the seriousness of potential impacts and the magnitude of economic and political responses that are needed to mitigate climate change effectively. This has made the treatment of uncertainty and confidence a key feature in the assessments carried out by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Because climate change is very much a cross-disciplinary area of science, adequately dealing with uncertainties requires recognition of their wide range and different perspectives on assessing and communicating those uncertainties. The structural differences that exist across disciplines are often embedded deeply in the corresponding literature that is used as the basis for an IPCC assessment. The assessment of climate change science by the IPCC has from its outset tried to report the levels of confidence and uncertainty in the degree of understanding in both the underlying multi-disciplinary science and in projections for future climate. The growing recognition of the seriousness of this led to the formation of a detailed approach for consistent treatment of uncertainties in the IPCC’s Third Assessment Report (TAR) [Moss and Schneider, 2000]. However, in completing the TAR there remained some systematic differences between the disciplines raising concerns about the level of consistency. So further consideration of a systematic approach to uncertainties was undertaken for the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). The basis for the approach used in the AR4 was developed at an expert meeting of scientists representing many different disciplines. This led to the introduction of a broader way of addressing uncertainties in the AR4 [Manning et al., 2004] which was further refined by lengthy discussions among many IPCC Lead Authors, for over a year, resulting in a short summary of a standard approach to be followed for that

  6. Prepared for climate change? A method for the ex-ante assessment of formal responsibilities for climate adaptation in specific sectors

    OpenAIRE

    Runhaar, H.A.C.; Uittenbroek, C.J.; Rijswick, van, P.C.J.; Mees, H.L.P.; Driessen, P.P.J.; Gilissen, H.K.

    2016-01-01

    Climate change-related risks encompass an intensification of extreme weather events, such as fluvial and pluvial flooding, droughts, storms, and heat stress. A transparent and comprehensive division of responsibilities is a necessary—but not the only—precondition for being prepared for climate change. In this paper, we present, and preliminarily test, a method for the ex-ante assessment of the division of public and private responsibilities for climate adaptation in terms of comprehensiveness...

  7. The co-production of science and policy in integrated climate assessments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lemos, M.C. [University of Michigan, Ann Arbor (United States). School of Natural Resources and Environment; Morehouse, B.J. [University of Arizona, Tucson (United States). Institute for the Study of Planet Earth

    2005-04-15

    This paper examines the use of interactive models of research in the US regional integrated scientific assessments (RISAS), using as a case study the climate assessment of the Southwest (CLIMAS). It focuses on three components of regional climate assessments: interdisciplinarity, interaction with stakeholders and production of usable knowledge, and on the role of three explanatory variables - the level of 'fit' between state of knowledge production and application, disciplinary and personal flexibility, and availability of resources - which affect the co-production of science and policy in the context of integrated assessments. It finds that although no single model can fulfill the multitude of goals of such assessments, it is in highly interactive models that the possibilities of higher levels of innovation and related social impacts are most likely to occur. (author)

  8. Toward a Simple Probabilistic GCM Emulator for Integrated Assessment of Climate Change Impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sue Wing, I.; Tebaldi, C.; Nychka, D. W.; Winkler, J.

    2014-12-01

    Climate emulators can bridge spatial scales in integrated assessment in ways that allow us to take advantage of the evolving understanding of the impacts of climate change. The spatial scales at which climate impacts occur are much finer than those of the "damage functions" in integrated assessment models (IAMs), which incorporate reduced form climate models to project changes in global mean temperature, and estimate aggregate damages directly from that. Advancing the state of IA modeling requires methods to generate—in a flexible and computationally efficient manner—future changes in climate variables at the geographic scales at which individual impact endpoints can be resolved. The state of the art uses outputs of global climate models (GCMs) forced by warming scenarios to drive impact calculations. However, downstream integrated assessments are perforce "locked-in" to the particular GCM x warming scenario combinations that generated the meteorological fields of interest—it is not possible assess risk due to the absence of probabilities over warming scenarios or model uncertainty. The availability of reduced-form models which can efficiently simulate the envelope of the response of multiple GCMs to a given amount of warming provides us with capability to create probabilistic projections of fine-scale of meteorological changes conditional on global mean temperature change to drive impact calculations in ways that permit risk assessments. This presentation documents a prototype probabilistic climate emulator for use as a GCM diagnostic tool and a driver of climate change impact assessments. We use a regression-based approach to construct multi-model global patterns for changes in temperature and precipitation from the CMIP3 archive. Crucially, regression residuals are used to derive a spatial covariance function of the model- and scenario-dependent deviations from the average pattern. By sampling from this manifold we can rapidly generate many realizations of

  9. A proposal for a new scenario framework to support research and assessment in different climate research communities

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vuuren, D.P. van; Riahi, K.; Moss, R.; Edmonds, J.; Thomson, A.; Nakicenovic, N.; Kram, T.; Berkhout, F.; Swart, R.; Janetos, A.; Rose, S.K.; Arnell, N.

    2012-01-01

    In this paper, we propose a scenario framework that could provide a scenario " thread" through the different climate research communities (climate change - vulnerability, impact, and adaptation - and mitigation) in order to support assessment of mitigation and adaptation strategies and climate impac

  10. A proposal for a new scenario framework to support research and assessment in different climate research communities

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vuuren, van D.P.; Riahi, K.; Moss, R.; Edmonds, J.; Thomson, A.; Nakicenovic, N.; Kram, T.; Berkhout, F.; Swart, R.J.; Janetos, A.; Rose, S.K.; Arnell, N.

    2012-01-01

    In this paper, we propose a scenario framework that could provide a scenario "thread" through the different climate research communities (climate change - vulnerability, impact, and adaptation - and mitigation) in order to support assessment of mitigation and adaptation strategies and climate impact

  11. Significance of model credibility in estimating climate projection distributions for regional hydroclimatological risk assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brekke, L.D.; Dettinger, M.D.; Maurer, E.P.; Anderson, M.

    2008-01-01

    Ensembles of historical climate simulations and climate projections from the World Climate Research Programme's (WCRP's) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) multi-model dataset were investigated to determine how model credibility affects apparent relative scenario likelihoods in regional risk assessments. Methods were developed and applied in a Northern California case study. An ensemble of 59 twentieth century climate simulations from 17 WCRP CMIP3 models was analyzed to evaluate relative model credibility associated with a 75-member projection ensemble from the same 17 models. Credibility was assessed based on how models realistically reproduced selected statistics of historical climate relevant to California climatology. Metrics of this credibility were used to derive relative model weights leading to weight-threshold culling of models contributing to the projection ensemble. Density functions were then estimated for two projected quantities (temperature and precipitation), with and without considering credibility-based ensemble reductions. An analysis for Northern California showed that, while some models seem more capable at recreating limited aspects twentieth century climate, the overall tendency is for comparable model performance when several credibility measures are combined. Use of these metrics to decide which models to include in density function development led to local adjustments to function shapes, but led to limited affect on breadth and central tendency, which were found to be more influenced by 'completeness' of the original ensemble in terms of models and emissions pathways. ?? 2007 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

  12. Climatic change of summer temperature and precipitation in the Alpine region - a statistical-dynamical assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heimann, D.; Sept, V.

    1998-12-01

    Climatic changes in the Alpine region due to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations are assessed by using statistical-dynamical downscaling. The downscaling procedure is applied to two 30-year periods (1971-2000 and 2071-2100, summer months only) of the output of a transient coupled ocean/atmosphere climate scenario simulation. The downscaling results for the present-day climate are in sufficient agreement with observations. The estimated regional climate change during the next 100 years shows a general warming. The mean summer temperatures increase by about 3 to more than 5 Kelvin. The most intense climatic warming is predicted in the western parts of the Alps. The amount of summer precipitation decreases in most parts of central Europe by more than 20 percent. Only over the Adriatic area and parts of eastern central Europe an increase in precipitation is simulated. The results are compared with observed trends and results of regional climate change simulations of other authors. The observed trends and the majority of the simulated trends agree with our results. However, there are also climate change estimates which completely contradict with ours. (orig.) 29 refs.

  13. Biosphere modeling with climate changes for safety assessment of high-level radioactive waste geological isolation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In the safety assessment of a high-level radioactive waste (HLW) disposal system, it is required to estimate radiological impacts on future human beings arising from potential radionuclide releases from a deep repository into the surface environment. In order to estimate the impacts, a biosphere model is developed by reasonably assuming radionuclide migration processes in the surface environment and relevant human lifestyles. Releases from the repository might not occur for many thousands of years after disposal. Over such timescales, it is anticipated that the considerable climatic change, for example, induced by the next glaciation period expected to occur in around ten thousand years from now, will have a significant influence on the near surface environment and associated human lifestyles. In case of taking these evolution effects into account in modeling, it is reasonable to develop several alternative models on biosphere evolution systems consistent with possible future conditions affected by expected climatic changes. In this study, alternative biosphere models were developed taking effects of possible climatic change into account. In the modeling, different climatic states existing in the world from the present climate condition in Japan are utilized as an analogy. Estimation of net effects of the climatic change on biosphere system was made by comparing these alternative biosphere models with a constant biosphere model consistent with the present climatic state through flux to dose conversion factors derived from each one. (author)

  14. OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE IN AN ASSESSMENT OF THE DANGER OF THE CONSEQUENCES OF PEACEFUL NUCLEAR EXPLOSIONS ON THE EXAMPLE OF FACILITY «DNEPR»

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. V. Hramcov

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of research was to assess the dynamics of the changes during the five-year period (from 2008 to 2013 of the radiation situation in the territory adjacent to the places of the peaceful nuclear explosions of the “Dnepr” series in the Murmansk region, the analysis of information environment of the subject in the Internet and the study of the population public opinion.Gamma-radiation dose rate registered in the investigated territory in 2013 (140 – 180 nSv/h corresponded to the natural radiation background, characteristic for the Khibiny. The average content of 137Cs in soil is comparable to the level of the global fallout contamination. Levels of the artificial radionuclides concentration in the samples of natural foodstuffs (mushrooms and berries were found in 2013 to be much lower than corresponded permissible levels. Values of the 3H specific activity for the water samples from the surface and underground sources sampled in 2013 decreased more than in 1,5 times in comparing with 2008 and have not exceeded the interventional level – 7600 Bq/kg. Exposure doses estimated for the critical group of population Exposure doses estimated in 2013 for the critical groups of population have not exceeded the dose limit adopted in RSS-99/2009. The interest of population to the mentioned problem has not been pointed out on the basic of the analysis of publications electronic versions in mass media for 2013. The comparative analysis of the results of the survey showed that level of public concern over the radiation environment in their places of residence has been low in 2008 and even lower in 2013. With a low level of the knowledge concerning radiation respondents found their significant interest for the issues relating radiation, its effects on the health and radiation protection measures.Along with the radiation-hygienic monitoring, it is necessary to conduct regular activities aimed on the population informing about the

  15. Danger.

    OpenAIRE

    Clay, Allyson

    1993-01-01

    The paintings in Allyson Clay’s series "Some places in the world a woman could walk" combine abstraction, photo silkscreen, and text to describe the experiences of women in the city. The works call up Baudelaire’s idea of the flâneur; far from being detached observers, Clay’s flâneuses reflect on their relationship to others and to public spaces. In each diptych text divulges the experiences, predilections and desires of individual women as they navigate public and private spaces within the...

  16. How well do integrated assessment models simulate climate change?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Vuuren, D.P.; Lowe, J.; Stehfest, E.; Gohar, L.; Hof, Andries; Hope, C.; Warren, R.; Meinshausen, M.; Plattner, G.K.

    2011-01-01

    Integrated assessment models (IAMs) are regularly used to evaluate different policies of future emissions reductions. Since the global costs associated with these policies are immense, it is vital that the uncertainties in IAMs are quantified and understood. We first demonstrate the significant spre

  17. Assessing the continuity of the blue ice climate record at Patriot Hills, Horseshoe Valley, West Antarctica

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winter, Kate; Woodward, John; Dunning, Stuart A.; Turney, Chris S. M.; Fogwill, Christopher J.; Hein, Andrew S.; Golledge, Nicholas R.; Bingham, Robert G.; Marrero, Shasta M.; Sugden, David E.; Ross, Neil

    2016-03-01

    We use high-resolution ground-penetrating radar (GPR) to assess the continuity of the Blue Ice Area (BIA) horizontal climate record at Patriot Hills, Horseshoe Valley, West Antarctica. The sequence contains three pronounced changes in deuterium isotopic values at ~18 cal ka, ~12 cal ka, and ~8 cal ka. GPR surveys along the climate sequence reveal continuous, conformable dipping isochrones, separated by two unconformities in the isochrone layers, which correlate with the two older deuterium shifts. We interpret these unconformities as discontinuities in the sequence, rather than direct measures of climate change. Ice sheet models and Internal Layer Continuity Index plots suggest that the unconformities represent periods of erosion occurring, as the former ice surface was scoured by katabatic winds in front of mountains at the head of Horseshoe Valley. This study demonstrates the importance of high-resolution GPR surveys for investigating both paleoflow dynamics and interpreting BIA climate records.

  18. Assessing confidence in management adaptation approaches for climate-sensitive ecosystems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A number of options are available for adapting ecosystem management to improve resilience in the face of climatic changes. However, uncertainty exists as to the effectiveness of these options. A report prepared for the US Climate Change Science Program reviewed adaptation options for a range of federally managed systems in the United States. The report included a qualitative uncertainty analysis of conceptual approaches to adaptation derived from the review. The approaches included reducing anthropogenic stressors, protecting key ecosystem features, maintaining representation, replicating, restoring, identifying refugia and relocating organisms. The results showed that the expert teams had the greatest scientific confidence in adaptation options that reduce anthropogenic stresses. Confidence in other approaches was lower because of gaps in understanding of ecosystem function, climate change impacts on ecosystems, and management effectiveness. This letter discusses insights gained from the confidence exercise and proposes strategies for improving future assessments of confidence for management adaptations to climate change. (letter)

  19. Uncertainties in assessing climate change impacts on the hydrology of Mediterranean basins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ludwig, Ralf

    2013-04-01

    There is substantial evidence in historical and recent observations that the Mediterranean and neighboring regions are especially vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Numerous climate projections, stemming from ensembles of global and regional climate models, agree on severe changes in the climate forcing which are likely to exacerbate subsequent ecological, economic and social impacts. Many of these causal connections are closely linked to the general expectation that water availability will decline in the already water-stressed basins of Africa, the Mediterranean region and the Near East, even though considerable regional variances must be expected. Consequently, climate change impacts on water resources are raising concerns regarding their possible management and security implications. Decreasing access to water resources and other related factors could be a cause or a 'multiplier' of tensions within and between countries. Whether security threats arise from climate impacts or options for cooperation evolve does not depend only on the severity of the impacts themselves, but on social, economic, and institutional vulnerabilities or resilience as well as factors that influence local, national and international relations. However, an assessment of vulnerability and risks hinges on natural, socio-economic, and political conditions and responses, all of which are uncertain. Multidisciplinary research is needed to tackle the multi-facet complexity of climate change impacts on water resources in the Mediterranean and neighboring countries. This is particularly true in a region of overall data scarcity and poor data management and exchange structures. The current potential to develop appropriate regional adaptation measures towards climate change impacts suffers heavily from large uncertainties. These spread along a long chain of components, starting from the definition of emission scenarios to global and regional climate modeling to impact models and a

  20. Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Agricultural Water Demands and Crop Yields in California's Central Valley

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tansey, M. K.; Flores-Lopez, F.; Young, C. A.; Huntington, J. L.

    2012-12-01

    Long term planning for the management of California's water resources requires assessment of the effects of future climate changes on both water supply and demand. Considerable progress has been made on the evaluation of the effects of future climate changes on water supplies but less information is available with regard to water demands. Uncertainty in future climate projections increases the difficulty of assessing climate impacts and evaluating long range adaptation strategies. Compounding the uncertainty in the future climate projections is the fact that most readily available downscaled climate projections lack sufficient meteorological information to compute evapotranspiration (ET) by the widely accepted ASCE Penman-Monteith (PM) method. This study addresses potential changes in future Central Valley water demands and crop yields by examining the effects of climate change on soil evaporation, plant transpiration, growth and yield for major types of crops grown in the Central Valley of California. Five representative climate scenarios based on 112 bias corrected spatially downscaled CMIP 3 GCM climate simulations were developed using the hybrid delta ensemble method to span a wide range future climate uncertainty. Analysis of historical California Irrigation Management Information System meteorological data was combined with several meteorological estimation methods to compute future solar radiation, wind speed and dew point temperatures corresponding to the GCM projected temperatures and precipitation. Future atmospheric CO2 concentrations corresponding to the 5 representative climate projections were developed based on weighting IPCC SRES emissions scenarios. The Land, Atmosphere, and Water Simulator (LAWS) model was used to compute ET and yield changes in the early, middle and late 21st century for 24 representative agricultural crops grown in the Sacramento, San Joaquin and Tulare Lake basins. Study results indicate that changes in ET and yield vary

  1. Developing a robust methodology for assessing the value of weather/climate services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krijnen, Justin; Golding, Nicola; Buontempo, Carlo

    2016-04-01

    Increasingly, scientists involved in providing weather and climate services are expected to demonstrate the value of their work for end users in order to justify the costs of developing and delivering these services. This talk will outline different approaches that can be used to assess the socio-economic benefits of weather and climate services, including, among others, willingness to pay and avoided costs. The advantages and limitations of these methods will be discussed and relevant case-studies will be used to illustrate each approach. The choice of valuation method may be influenced by different factors, such as resource and time constraints and the end purposes of the study. In addition, there are important methodological differences which will affect the value assessed. For instance the ultimate value of a weather/climate forecast to a decision-maker will not only depend on forecast accuracy but also on other factors, such as how the forecast is communicated to and consequently interpreted by the end-user. Thus, excluding these additional factors may result in inaccurate socio-economic value estimates. In order to reduce the inaccuracies in this valuation process we propose an approach that assesses how the initial weather/climate forecast information can be incorporated within the value chain of a given sector, taking into account value gains and losses at each stage of the delivery process. By this we aim to more accurately depict the socio-economic benefits of a weather/climate forecast to decision-makers.

  2. Accounting for adaptive capacity and uncertainty in assessments of species’ climate-change vulnerability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wade, Alisa A.; Hand, Brian K.; Kovach, Ryan; Luikart, Gordon; Whited, Diane; Muhlfeld, Clint C.

    2016-01-01

    Climate change vulnerability assessments (CCVAs) are valuable tools for assessing species’ vulnerability to climatic changes, yet failure to include measures of adaptive capacity and to account for sources of uncertainty may limit their effectiveness. Here, we provide a more comprehensive CCVA approach that incorporates all three elements used for assessing species’ climate change vulnerability: exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. We illustrate our approach using case studies of two threatened salmonids with different life histories – anadromous steelhead trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) and non-anadromous bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) – within the Columbia River Basin, USA. We identified general patterns of high vulnerability in low-elevation and southernmost habitats for both species. However, vulnerability rankings varied widely depending on the factors (climate, habitat, demographic, and genetic) included in the CCVA and often differed for the two species at locations where they were sympatric. Our findings illustrate that CCVA results are highly sensitive to data inputs and that spatial differences can complicate multi-species conservation. Our results highlight how CCVAs should be considered within a broader conceptual and computational framework for refining hypotheses, guiding research, and comparing plausible scenarios of species’ vulnerability for ongoing and projected climate change.

  3. Climate change assessment for Mediterranean agricultural areas by statistical downscaling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palatella, L.; Miglietta, M. M.; Paradisi, P.; Lionello, P.

    2010-07-01

    In this paper we produce projections of seasonal precipitation for four Mediterranean areas: Apulia region (Italy), Ebro river basin (Spain), Po valley (Italy) and Antalya province (Turkey). We performed the statistical downscaling using Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) in two versions: in one case Principal Component Analysis (PCA) filter is applied only to predictor and in the other to both predictor and predictand. After performing a validation test, CCA after PCA filter on both predictor and predictand has been chosen. Sea level pressure (SLP) is used as predictor. Downscaling has been carried out for the scenarios A2 and B2 on the basis of three GCM's: the CCCma-GCM2, the Csiro-MK2 and HadCM3. Three consecutive 30-year periods have been considered. For Summer precipitation in Apulia region we also use the 500 hPa temperature (T500) as predictor, obtaining comparable results. Results show different climate change signals in the four areas and confirm the need of an analysis that is capable of resolving internal differences within the Mediterranean region. The most robust signal is the reduction of Summer precipitation in the Ebro river basin. Other significative results are the increase of precipitation over Apulia in Summer, the reduction over the Po-valley in Spring and Autumn and the increase over the Antalya province in Summer and Autumn.

  4. Sea Extremes: Integrated impact assessment in coastal climate adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sorensen, Carlo; Knudsen, Per; Broge, Niels; Molgaard, Mads; Andersen, Ole

    2016-04-01

    We investigate effects of sea level rise and a change in precipitation pattern on coastal flooding hazards. Historic and present in situ and satellite data of water and groundwater levels, precipitation, vertical ground motion, geology, and geotechnical soil properties are combined with flood protection measures, topography, and infrastructure to provide a more complete picture of the water-related impact from climate change at an exposed coastal location. Results show that future sea extremes evaluated from extreme value statistics may, indeed, have a large impact. The integrated effects from future storm surges and other geo- and hydro-parameters need to be considered in order to provide for the best protection and mitigation efforts, however. Based on the results we present and discuss a simple conceptual model setup that can e.g. be used for 'translation' of regional sea level rise evidence and projections to concrete impact measures. This may be used by potentially affected stakeholders -often working in different sectors and across levels of governance, in a common appraisal of the challenges faced ahead. The model may also enter dynamic tools to evaluate local impact as sea level research advances and projections for the future are updated.

  5. Climate change assessment for Mediterranean agricultural areas by statistical downscaling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Palatella

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we produce projections of seasonal precipitation for four Mediterranean areas: Apulia region (Italy, Ebro river basin (Spain, Po valley (Italy and Antalya province (Turkey. We performed the statistical downscaling using Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA in two versions: in one case Principal Component Analysis (PCA filter is applied only to predictor and in the other to both predictor and predictand. After performing a validation test, CCA after PCA filter on both predictor and predictand has been chosen. Sea level pressure (SLP is used as predictor. Downscaling has been carried out for the scenarios A2 and B2 on the basis of three GCM's: the CCCma-GCM2, the Csiro-MK2 and HadCM3. Three consecutive 30-year periods have been considered. For Summer precipitation in Apulia region we also use the 500 hPa temperature (T500 as predictor, obtaining comparable results. Results show different climate change signals in the four areas and confirm the need of an analysis that is capable of resolving internal differences within the Mediterranean region. The most robust signal is the reduction of Summer precipitation in the Ebro river basin. Other significative results are the increase of precipitation over Apulia in Summer, the reduction over the Po-valley in Spring and Autumn and the increase over the Antalya province in Summer and Autumn.

  6. Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Electric Power Generation in the Western Interconnection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartos, M. D.; Chester, M.

    2014-12-01

    In recent years, concerns have grown over the potential impacts of climate change on electricity generation. Water resources are integral to the production of thermoelectric and hydroelectric power, and droughts are expected to become more frequent, severe, and longer-lasting over the course of the twenty-first century. Many generation technologies—including gas turbines and solar cells—are also vulnerable to changes in local climatic conditions like ambient air temperature. As extreme weather becomes more common, methods are needed to assess the impacts of climate change on regional power systems. However, these methods must also account for (1) heterogeneity in generation technologies, and (2) local variation in climatic conditions. This study uses a physically-based modeling system to assess the vulnerability of electric power infrastructure in the Western Interconnection. Climatic and hydrologic parameters relevant to power generation are identified for six generation technologies. Downscaled climate forcings are then used as inputs to a physically-based modeling system, consisting of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrological model and the RBM one-dimensional stream temperature model. Impacts to generating capacity are estimated directly from changes in modeled climatic and hydrologic parameters, using functional relationships unique to each generating technology. A preliminary analysis of 1,302 power stations in the Western Interconnection reveals decreases in summertime generating capacity of 8-22%, with the largest impacts occurring at thermoelectric and hydroelectric facilities in the Pacific Northwest and California. Impacts to base-load thermoelectric plants are mitigated by recirculating cooling systems, which reduce the performance penalty of low flows and high water temperatures. Climate impacts on solar and wind capacity are relatively small, indicating that these energy sources may play a more prominent role as conventional generation

  7. Influence of climate on landscape characteristics in safety assessments of repositories for radioactive wastes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In safety assessments of repositories for radioactive wastes, large spatial and temporal scales have to be considered when developing an approach to risk calculations. A wide range of different types of information may be required. Local to the site of interest, temperature and precipitation data may be used to determine the erosional regime (which may also be conditioned by the vegetation characteristics adopted, based both on climatic and other considerations). However, geomorphological changes may be governed by regional rather than local considerations, e.g. alteration of river base levels, river capture and drainage network reorganisation, or the progression of an ice sheet or valley glacier across the site. The regional climate is in turn governed by the global climate. In this work, a commentary is presented on the types of climate models that can be used to develop projections of climate change for use in post-closure radiological impact assessments of geological repositories for radioactive wastes. These models include both Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models and Earth Models of Intermediate Complexity. The relevant outputs available from these models are identified and consideration is given to how these outputs may be used to inform projections of landscape development. Issues of spatial and temporal downscaling of climate model outputs to meet the requirements of local-scale landscape development modelling are also addressed. An example is given of how climate change and landscape development influence the radiological impact of radionuclides potentially released from the deep geological disposal facility for spent nuclear fuel that SKB (the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company) proposes to construct at Forsmark, Sweden. - Highlights: • Reviews literature on climate and landscape change. • Makes application to disposal of radioactive wastes. • Illustrates for spent fuel disposal

  8. Climate change vulnerability of native and alien freshwater fishes of California: a systematic assessment approach.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter B Moyle

    Full Text Available Freshwater fishes are highly vulnerable to human-caused climate change. Because quantitative data on status and trends are unavailable for most fish species, a systematic assessment approach that incorporates expert knowledge was developed to determine status and future vulnerability to climate change of freshwater fishes in California, USA. The method uses expert knowledge, supported by literature reviews of status and biology of the fishes, to score ten metrics for both (1 current status of each species (baseline vulnerability to extinction and (2 likely future impacts of climate change (vulnerability to extinction. Baseline and climate change vulnerability scores were derived for 121 native and 43 alien fish species. The two scores were highly correlated and were concordant among different scorers. Native species had both greater baseline and greater climate change vulnerability than did alien species. Fifty percent of California's native fish fauna was assessed as having critical or high baseline vulnerability to extinction whereas all alien species were classified as being less or least vulnerable. For vulnerability to climate change, 82% of native species were classified as highly vulnerable, compared with only 19% for aliens. Predicted climate change effects on freshwater environments will dramatically change the fish fauna of California. Most native fishes will suffer population declines and become more restricted in their distributions; some will likely be driven to extinction. Fishes requiring cold water (<22°C are particularly likely to go extinct. In contrast, most alien fishes will thrive, with some species increasing in abundance and range. However, a few alien species will likewise be negatively affected through loss of aquatic habitats during severe droughts and physiologically stressful conditions present in most waterways during summer. Our method has high utility for predicting vulnerability to climate change of diverse fish

  9. Modeling interactions between land cover and climate in integrated assessment models (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calvin, K. V.

    2013-12-01

    Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) link representations of the regionally disaggregated global economy, energy system, agriculture and land-use, terrestrial carbon cycle, oceans and climate in an internally consistent framework. These models are often used as science-based decision-support tools for evaluating the consequences of climate, energy, and other policies, and their use in this framework is likely to increase in the future. Additionally, these models are used to develop future scenarios of emissions and land cover for use in climate models (e.g., RCPs and CMIP5). Land use is strongly influenced by assumptions about population, income, diet, ecosystem productivity change, and climate policy. Population, income, and diet determine the amount of food production needed in the future. Assumptions about future changes in crop yields due to agronomic developments influence the amount of land needed to produce food crops. Climate policy has implications for land when land-based mitigation options (e.g., afforestation and bioenergy) are considered. IAM models consider each of these factors in their computation of land use in the future. As each of these factors is uncertain in the future, IAM models use scenario analysis to explore the implications of each. For example, IAMs have been used to explore the effect of different mitigation policies on land cover. These models can quantify the trade-offs in terms of land cover, energy prices, food prices, and mitigation costs of each of these policies. Furthermore, IAMs are beginning to explore the effect of climate change on land productivity, and the implications that changes in productivity have on mitigation efforts. In this talk, we describe the implications for future land use and land cover of a variety of socioeconomic, technological, and policy drivers in several IAM models. Additionally, we will discuss the effects of future land cover on climate and the effects of climate on future land cover, as simulated

  10. Dangerous Dogs, Constructivism and Normativity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Allan Dreyer

    2010-01-01

    This article argues that although there is no necessary link between constructivism and particular sets of norms, constructivism opens up a space for normativity and can be articulated through particular normative or political programs. I show how Laclau’s deconstructive constructivism can be art...... articulated within the framework of an ethos of democratization. The article takes its empirical point of departure in debates over dangerous dogs....

  11. Review of climate and climate related issues in the safety assessment SR-Can

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The climate, ice sheet and cryosphere sections have been reviewed and the general judgement is that this is a thorough analysis, made in a positive wish to solve the remaining problems. However, there are some gaps and weaknesses which can be summarized as follows: - It is still unclear how results from different projects are implemented in the decision making process. - More caution must be paid to error estimations and also on how errors are transferred between different steps in the analyses. Error bars should be presented also in the final results as they most often are used for further calculations introducing additional errors. The most striking example is the extensive use of oxygen isotope data from Greenland. - Permafrost calculations are presented in a too simplified manor. There is no caution paid to errors in the climate forcing and in effects of potential glacial erosion. The threat of permafrost becomes more severe if these items are considered. - The models used for different calculations should be better described. Much attention is paid to describe the physics of the real world, but less to how the physics is handled in the models which is crucial for the reliability of the model. - The glacial hydrology section needs to be better linked to the ice sheet modelling results and more adopted to polar environments. - Glacial erosion is not considered for some unexplained reason. - The green house scenario must be considered in a better way than at present. Melting Ice Sheets can certainly influence the sea level to such an extent that sea salt intrusion and influences on the ground water aquifers will occur. More research including field campaigns is needed on - Glacio-hydrology. Field studies must be performed at the Greenland Ice Sheet to obtain good analogies to a Scandinavian future ice sheet. The basis for the existing report is field experience and research carried out on temperate or polythermal glaciers. Polar ice sheets are very different

  12. Climate Change Impact Assessment and Adaptation Options in Vulnerable Agro-Landscapes in East-Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manful, D.; Tscherning, K.; Kersebaum, K.; Dietz, J.; Dietrich, O.; Gomani, C.; Böhm, H.; Büchner, M.; Lischeid, G.,; Ojoyi, M.,

    2009-04-01

    Climate change poses a risk to the livelihoods of large populations in the developing world, especially in Africa. In East Africa, climate change is expected to affect the spatial distribution and quantity of precipitation. The proposed project will assess aspects of climate impacts and adaptation options in Tanzania. The project will attempt to quantify (1) projected impacts including: variability in temperature, rainfall, flooding and drought (2) the affect changes in 1. will have on specific sectors namely agriculture (food security), water resources and ecosystem services. The cumulative effects of diminished surface and ground water flow on agricultural production coupled with increasing demand for food due to increase in human pressure will also be evaluated. Expected outputs of the project include (1) downscaled climate change scenarios for different IPCC emission scenarios (2) model based estimations of climate change impacts on hydrological cycle and assessment of land use options (3) scenarios of sustainable livelihoods and resilient agro-landscapes under climate change (4) assessment of adaptive practices and criteria for best adaptation practices. The presentation will focus on novel approaches that focus on the use of agro-ecosystem models to predict local and regional impacts of climate variability on food with specific needs of the end-user factored into model set-up process. In other words, model configurations adapted to the information needs of a specific end-user or audience are evaluated. The perception of risk within different end-users (small scale farmer versus a regional or state level policy maker) are explicitly taken into consideration with the overarching aim of maximizing the impact of the results obtained from computer-based simulations.

  13. Assessing the impact of climate change upon hydrology and agriculture in the Indrawati Basin, Nepal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palazzoli, Irene; Bocchiola, Daniele; Nana, Ester; Maskey, Shreedhar; Uhlenbrook, Stefan

    2014-05-01

    Agriculture is sensitive to climate change, especially to temperature and precipitation changes. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the climate change impacts upon rain-fed crops production in the Indrawati river basin, Nepal. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool SWAT model was used to model hydrology and cropping systems in the catchment, and to predict the influence of different climate change scenarios therein. Daily weather data collected from about 13 weather stations during 4 decades were used to constrain the SWAT model, and data from two hydrometric stations used to calibrate/validate it. Then management practices (crop calendar) were applied to specific Hydrological Response Units (HRUs) for the main crops of the region, rice, corn and wheat. Manual calibration of crop production was also carried, against values of crop yield in the area from literature. The calibrated and validated model was further applied to assess the impact of three future climate change scenarios (RCPs) upon the crop productivity in the region. Three climate models (GCMs) were adopted, each with three RCPs (2.5, 4.5, 8.5). Hence, impacts of climate change were assessed considering three time windows, namely a baseline period (1995-2004), the middle of century (2045-2054) and the end of century (2085-2094). For each GCM and RCP future hydrology and yield was compared to baseline scenario. The results displayed slightly modified hydrological cycle, and somewhat small variation in crop production, variable with models and RCPs, and for crop type, the largest being for wheat. Keywords: Climate Change, Nepal, hydrological cycle, crop yield.

  14. Integrated assessment of climate change impact on surface runoff contamination by pesticides.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gagnon, Patrick; Sheedy, Claudia; Rousseau, Alain N; Bourgeois, Gaétan; Chouinard, Gérald

    2016-07-01

    Pesticide transport by surface runoff depends on climate, agricultural practices, topography, soil characteristics, crop type, and pest phenology. To accurately assess the impact of climate change, these factors must be accounted for in a single framework by integrating their interaction and uncertainty. This article presents the development and application of a framework to assess the impact of climate change on pesticide transport by surface runoff in southern Québec (Canada) for the 1981-2040 period. The crop enemies investigated were: weeds for corn (Zea mays); and for apple orchard (Malus pumila), 3 insect pests (codling moth [Cydia pomonella], plum curculio [Conotrachelus nenuphar], and apple maggot [Rhagoletis pomonella]), 2 diseases (apple scab [Venturia inaequalis], and fire blight [Erwinia amylovora]). A total of 23 climate simulations, 19 sites, and 11 active ingredients were considered. The relationship between climate and phenology was accounted for by bioclimatic models of the Computer Centre for Agricultural Pest Forecasting (CIPRA) software. Exported loads of pesticides were evaluated at the edge-of-field scale using the Pesticide Root Zone Model (PRZM), simulating both hydrology and chemical transport. A stochastic model was developed to account for PRZM parameter uncertainty. Results of this study indicate that for the 2011-2040 period, application dates would be advanced from 3 to 7 days on average with respect to the 1981-2010 period. However, the impact of climate change on maximum daily rainfall during the application window is not statistically significant, mainly due to the high variability of extreme rainfall events. Hence, for the studied sites and crop enemies considered, climate change impact on pesticide transported in surface runoff is not statistically significant throughout the 2011-2040 period. Integr Environ Assess Managem 2016;12:559-571. © Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada 2015; Published 2015 SETAC. PMID:26331624

  15. Assessment of climate change statistical downscaling methods: Application and comparison of two statistical methods to a single site in Lisbon

    OpenAIRE

    Lopes, Pedro Miguel de Almeida Garrett Graça

    2008-01-01

    Climate change impacts are very dependent on regional geographical features, local climate variability, and socio-economic conditions. Impact assessment studies on climate change should therefore be performed at the local or at most at the regional level for the evaluation of possible consequences. However, climate scenarios are produced by Global Circulation Models for the entire Globe with spatial resolutions of several hundred kilometres. For this reason, downscaling methods are need...

  16. Assessment of future flood hazard in Europe using a large ensemble of bias-corrected regional climate simulations

    OpenAIRE

    ROJAS MUJICA RODRIGO FELIPE; Feyen, Luc; BIANCHI ALESSANDRA; Dosio, Alessandro

    2012-01-01

    We assess future flood hazard in view of climate change at pan-European scale using a large ensemble of climate projections. The ensemble consists of simulations from 12 climate experiments conducted within the ENSEMBLES project, forced by the SRES A1B emission scenario for the period 1961–2100. Prior to driving the hydrological model LISFLOOD, climate simulations are corrected for bias in precipitation and temperature using a Quantile Mapping (QM) method. For time slices of 30 years, a Gumbe...

  17. Uncertainty assessment of urban pluvial flood risk in a context of climate change adaptation decision making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Zhou, Qianqian

    2014-01-01

    There has been a significant increase in climatic extremes in many regions. In Central and Northern Europe, this has led to more frequent and more severe floods. Along with improved flood modelling technologies this has enabled development of economic assessment of climate change adaptation to...... increasing urban flood risk. Assessment of adaptation strategies often requires a comprehensive risk-based economic analysis of current risk, drivers of change of risk over time, and measures to reduce the risk. However, such studies are often associated with large uncertainties. The uncertainties arise from...... basic assumptions in the economic analysis and the hydrological model, but also from the projection of future societies to local climate change impacts and suitable adaptation options. This presents a challenge to decision makers when trying to identify robust measures. We present an integrated...

  18. The acquisition of dangerous biological materials :

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aceto, Donato Gonzalo; Astuto-Gribble, Lisa M.; Gaudioso, Jennifer M.

    2007-11-01

    Numerous terrorist organizations have openly expressed interest in producing and deploying biological weapons. However, a limiting factor for many terrorists has been the acquisition of dangerous biological agents, as evidenced by the very few successful instances of biological weapons use compared to the number of documented hoaxes. Biological agents vary greatly in their ability to cause loss of life and economic damage. Some agents, if released properly, can kill many people and cause an extensive number of secondary infections; other agents will sicken only a small number of people for a short period of time. Consequently, several biological agents can potentially be used to perpetrate a bioterrorism attack but few are likely capable of causing a high consequence event. It is crucial, from a US national security perspective, to more deeply understand the likelihood that terrorist organizations can acquire the range of these agents. Few studies have attempted to comprehensively compile the technical information directly relevant to the acquisition of dangerous bacteria, viruses and toxins. In this report, technical fact sheets were assembled for 46 potentially dangerous biological agents. Much of the information was taken from various research sources which could ultimately and significantly expedite and improve bioterrorism threat assessments. By systematically examining a number of specific agent characteristics included in these fact sheets, it may be possible to detect, target, and implement measures to thwart future terrorist acquisition attempts. In addition, the information in these fact sheets may be used as a tool to help laboratories gain a rudimentary understanding of how attractive a method laboratory theft is relative to other potential acquisition modes.

  19. Climate uncertainty and implications for U.S. state-level risk assessment through 2050.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Loose, Verne W.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Malczynski, Leonard A.; Tidwell, Vincent Carroll; Stamber, Kevin Louis; Kelic, Andjelka; Backus, George A.; Warren, Drake E.; Zagonel, Aldo A.; Ehlen, Mark Andrew; Klise, Geoffrey T.; Vargas, Vanessa N.

    2009-10-01

    Decisions for climate policy will need to take place in advance of climate science resolving all relevant uncertainties. Further, if the concern of policy is to reduce risk, then the best-estimate of climate change impacts may not be so important as the currently understood uncertainty associated with realizable conditions having high consequence. This study focuses on one of the most uncertain aspects of future climate change - precipitation - to understand the implications of uncertainty on risk and the near-term justification for interventions to mitigate the course of climate change. We show that the mean risk of damage to the economy from climate change, at the national level, is on the order of one trillion dollars over the next 40 years, with employment impacts of nearly 7 million labor-years. At a 1% exceedance-probability, the impact is over twice the mean-risk value. Impacts at the level of individual U.S. states are then typically in the multiple tens of billions dollar range with employment losses exceeding hundreds of thousands of labor-years. We used results of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report 4 (AR4) climate-model ensemble as the referent for climate uncertainty over the next 40 years, mapped the simulated weather hydrologically to the county level for determining the physical consequence to economic activity at the state level, and then performed a detailed, seventy-industry, analysis of economic impact among the interacting lower-48 states. We determined industry GDP and employment impacts at the state level, as well as interstate population migration, effect on personal income, and the consequences for the U.S. trade balance.

  20. An Integrated Hydro-Economic Model for Economy-Wide Climate Change Impact Assessment for Zambia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, T.; Thurlow, J.; Diao, X.

    2008-12-01

    Zambia is a landlocked country in Southern Africa, with a total population of about 11 million and a total area of about 752 thousand square kilometers. Agriculture in the country depends heavily on rainfall as the majority of cultivated land is rain-fed. Significant rainfall variability has been a huge challenge for the country to keep a sustainable agricultural growth, which is an important condition for the country to meet the United Nations Millennium Development Goals. The situation is expected to become even more complex as climate change would impose additional impacts on rainwater availability and crop water requirements, among other changes. To understand the impacts of climate variability and change on agricultural production and national economy, a soil hydrology model and a crop water production model are developed to simulate actual crop water uses and yield losses under water stress which provide annual shocks for a recursive dynamic computational general equilibrium (CGE) model developed for Zambia. Observed meteorological data of the past three decades are used in the integrated hydro-economic model for climate variability impact analysis, and as baseline climatology for climate change impact assessment together with several GCM-based climate change scenarios that cover a broad range of climate projections. We found that climate variability can explain a significant portion of the annual variations of agricultural production and GDP of Zambia in the past. Hidden beneath climate variability, climate change is found to have modest impacts on agriculture and national economy of Zambia around 2025 but the impacts would be pronounced in the far future if appropriate adaptations are not implemented. Policy recommendations are provided based on scenario analysis.

  1. An integrated method for assessing climate-related risks and adaptation alternatives in urban areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yvonne Andersson-Sköld

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The urban environment is a complex structure with interlinked social, ecological and technical structures. Global warming is expected to have a broad variety of impacts, which will add to the complexity. Climate changes will force adaptation, to reduce climate-related risks. Adaptation measures can address one aspect at the time, or aim for a holistic approach to avoid maladaptation. This paper presents a systematic, integrated approach for assessing alternatives for reducing the risks of heat waves, flooding and air pollution in urban settings, with the aim of reducing the risk of maladaptation. The study includes strategies covering different spatial scales, and both the current climate situation and the climate predicted under climate change scenarios. The adaptation strategies investigated included increasing vegetation; selecting density, height and colour of buildings; and retreat or resist (defend against sea-level rise. Their effectiveness was assessed with regard to not only flooding, heat stress and air quality but also with regard to resource use, emissions to air (incl. GHG, soil and water, and people’s perceptions and vulnerability. The effectiveness of the strategies were ranked on a common scale (from −3 to 3 in an integrated assessment. Integrated assessments are recommended, as they help identify the most sustainable solutions, but to reduce the risk of maladaptation they require experts from a variety of disciplines. The most generally applicable recommendation, derived from the integrated assessment here, taking into account both expertise from different municipal departments, literature surveys, life cycle assessments and publics perceptions, is to increase the urban greenery, as it contributes to several positive aspects such as heat stress mitigation, air quality improvement, effective storm-water and flood-risk management, and it has several positive social impacts. The most favourable alternative was compact, mid

  2. Assessment of polar climate change using satellite technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, Dorothy K.

    1988-02-01

    Results from general circulation models (GCMs) have indicated that a predicted climate warming resulting from an increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) will be amplified in the polar regions and that temperature increases in the polar regions will be several times greater than the global average. Some GCMs predict a 4°-5°C average air temperature increase in the Arctic by the middle of the next century. Evidence from the polar regions indicates that a warming in the cryosphere may already be in progress. A 2°-4°C rise in permafrost temperature, measured in northern Alaska, is believed to have occurred during the last 100 years. In addition, many small valley glaciers and ice caps have experienced retreat and appear to have contributed up to 50% to the observed rise (10-15 cm) in sea level during the last century. Other work shows that increased snowfall which can be associated with warmer temperatures has caused thickening of some Alaskan glaciers. Though a decrease in snow and sea ice cover would be a likely consequence of global warming, a sustained decrease in global snow and sea ice extent has not been found from analysis of more than 20 years of image data (1.1-km pixel resolution) from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration meteorological satellites and more than 7 years of scanning multichannel microwave radiometer snow data (30-km pixel resolution) on the Nimbus 7 satellite. Snow and sea ice are sensitive to atmospheric temperature changes because of their large surface to volume ratio. While measurements of snow and sea ice extent, snow depth, and sea ice concentration are possible using visible, near-infrared, or microwave sensors on satellites, it is not feasible to measure the mass balance of the ice sheets with these sensors directly. Estimates by glaciologists show that the Greenland Ice Sheet is in approximate equilibrium and that the Antarctic Ice Sheet has a positive mass balance. Satellite radar altimetry (and in the future

  3. A Review of Studies of Danger Perception and Prospects of its Study in Clinical Psychology Development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Veschikova M.I.,

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available The objective of studies of danger perception is to predict the behavior of a person, group, or society in terms of the potential hazard, to identify the main groups of factors that affect the risk assessment and sources of distortion of the evaluation. The review presents the sociological theories of danger, reveals the gender differences in the danger perception, and describes in details the individual factors of danger perception. We discuss the prospects of studying the outside world danger perception in clinical psychology of development. We emphasize that the key period for the development of danger assessment process is adolescence, because this is the age when most significant quantitative and qualitative changes in the cognitive sphere occur: the development of abstract logical thinking, increased interest to the life and death, the appearance of “personal myth”.

  4. Assessing atmospheric temperature data sets for climate studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Magnus Cederlöf

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Observed near-surface temperature trends during the period 1979–2014 show large differences between land and ocean, with positive values over land (0.25–0.27 °C/decade that are significantly larger than over the ocean (0.06–0.12 °C/decade. Temperature trends in the mid-troposphere of 0.08-0.11 °C/decade, on the other hand, are similar for both land and ocean and agree closely with the ocean surface temperature trend. The lapse rate is consequently systematically larger over land than over the ocean and also shows a positive trend in most land areas. This is puzzling as a response to external warming, such as from increasing greenhouse gases, is broadly the same throughout the troposphere. The reduced tropospheric warming trend over land suggests a weaker vertical temperature coupling indicating that some of the processes in the planetary boundary layer such as inversions have a limited influence on the temperature of the free atmosphere. Alternatively, the temperature of the free atmosphere is influenced by advection of colder tropospheric air from the oceans. It is therefore suggested to use either the more robust tropospheric temperature or ocean surface temperature in studies of climate sensitivity. We also conclude that the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis Interim can be used to obtain consistent temperature trends through the depth of the atmosphere, as they are consistent both with near-surface temperature trends and atmospheric temperature trends obtained from microwave sounding sensors.

  5. Aspirations and common tensions: larger lessons from the third US national climate assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moser, Susanne; Melillo, Jerry; Jacobs, Kathy; Moss, Richard H.; Buizer, James L.

    2016-02-01

    The Third US National Climate Assessment (NCA3) was produced by experts in response to the US Global Change Research Act of 1990. Based on lessons learned from previous domestic and international assessments, the NCA3 was designed to speak to a broad public and inform the concerns of policy- and decision-makers at different scales. The NCA3 was also intended to be the first step in an ongoing assessment process that would build the nation’s capacity to respond to climate change. This concluding paper draws larger lessons from the insights gained throughout the assessment process that are of significance to future US and international assessment designers. We bring attention to process and products delivered, communication and engagement efforts, and how they contributed to the sustained assessment. Based on areas where expectations were exceeded or not fully met, we address four common tensions that all assessment designers must confront and manage: between (1) core assessment ingredients (knowledge base, institutional set-up, principled process, and the people involved), (2) national scope and subnational adaptive management information needs, (3) scope, complexity, and manageability, and (4) deliberate evaluation and ongoing learning approaches. Managing these tensions, amidst the social and political contexts in which assessments are conducted, is critical to ensure that assessments are feasible and productive, while its outcomes are perceived as credible, salient, and legitimate.

  6. Regional assessment of Climate change impacts in the Mediterranean: the CIRCE project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iglesias, A.

    2011-12-01

    The CIRCE project has developed for the first time an assessment of the climate change impacts in the Mediterranean area. The objectives of the project are: to predict and to quantify physical impacts of climate change in the Mediterranean area; to evaluate the consequences of climate change for the society and the economy of the populations located in the Mediterranean area; to develop an integrated approach to understand combined effects of climate change; and to identify adaptation and mitigation strategies in collaboration with regional stakeholders. The CIRCE Project, coordinated by the Instituto Nazionale di Geofisca e Vulcanologia, started on 1st April 2007 and ended in a policy conference in Rome on June 2011. CIRCE involves 64 partners from Europe, Middle East and North Africa working together to evaluate the best strategies of adaptation to the climate change in the Mediterranean basin. CIRCE wants to understand and to explain how climate will change in the Mediterranean area bringing together the natural sciences community and social community in a new integrated and comprehensive way. The project has investigated how global and Mediterranean climates interact, how the radiative properties of the atmosphere and the radiative fluxes vary, the interaction between cloudiness and aerosol, the modifications in the water cycle. Recent observed modifications in the climate variables and detected trends will be compared. The economic and social consequences of climate change are evaluated by analysing direct impacts on migration, tourism and energy markets together with indirect impacts on the economic system. CIRCE has produced results about the consequences on agriculture, forests and ecosystems, human health and air quality. The variability of extreme events in the future scenario and their impacts is also assessed. A rigorous common framework, including a set of quantitative indicators developed specifically for the Mediterranean environment was be developed

  7. Climate induced changes on the hydrology of Mediterranean basins - assessing uncertainties and quantifying risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ludwig, Ralf

    2014-05-01

    According to current climate projections, the Mediterranean area is at high risk for severe changes in the hydrological budget and extremes. With innovative scientific measures, integrated hydrological modeling and novel field geophysical field monitoring techniques, the FP7 project CLIMB (Climate Induced Changes on the Hydrology of Mediterranean Basins; GA: 244151) assessed the impacts of climate change on the hydrology in seven basins in the Mediterranean area, in Italy, France, Turkey, Tunisia, Egypt and the Gaza Strip, and quantified uncertainties and risks for the main stakeholders of each test site. Intensive climate model auditing selected four regional climate models, whose data was bias corrected and downscaled to serve as climate forcing for a set of hydrological models in each site. The results of the multi-model hydro-climatic ensemble and socio-economic factor analysis were applied to develop a risk model building upon spatial vulnerability and risk assessment. Findings generally reveal an increasing risk for water resources management in the test sites, yet at different rates and severity in the investigated sectors, with highest impacts likely to occur in the transition months. Most important elements of this research include the following aspects: • Climate change contributes, yet in strong regional variation, to water scarcity in the Mediterranean; other factors, e.g. pollution or poor management practices, are regionally still dominant pressures on water resources. • Rain-fed agriculture needs to adapt to seasonal changes; stable or increasing productivity likely depends on additional irrigation. • Tourism could benefit in shoulder seasons, but may expect income losses in the summer peak season due to increasing heat stress. • Local & regional water managers and water users, lack, as yet, awareness of climate change induced risks; emerging focus areas are supplies of domestic drinking water, irrigation, hydropower and livestock. • Data

  8. Assessment of Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) temporal signature over the upper Zambezi

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Winsemius, H.C.; Savenije, H.H.G.; Van de Giesen, N.C.; Van den Hurk, B.J.J.M.; Zapreeva, E.A.; Klees, R.

    2006-01-01

    The temporal signature of terrestrial storage changes inferred from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) has been assessed by comparison with outputs from a calibrated hydrological model (lumped elementary watershed (LEW)) of the upper Zambezi and surroundings and an inspection of the

  9. Climate Change Education: Quantitatively Assessing the Impact of a Botanical Garden as an Informal Learning Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sellmann, Daniela; Bogner, Franz X.

    2013-01-01

    Although informal learning environments have been studied extensively, ours is one of the first studies to quantitatively assess the impact of learning in botanical gardens on students' cognitive achievement. We observed a group of 10th graders participating in a one-day educational intervention on climate change implemented in a botanical…

  10. 78 FR 21598 - National Climate Assessment and Development Advisory Committee (NCADAC)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-04-11

    ... From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Climate Assessment and Development Advisory..., Suite 250, 1717 Pennsylvania Avenue NW., Washington, DC 20006. The public will not be able to dial...

  11. Framework for economic pluvial flood risk assessment considering climate change effects and adaptation benefits

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhou, Qianqian; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen; Halsnæs, Kirsten;

    2012-01-01

    Climate change is likely to affect the water cycle by influencing the precipitation patterns. It is important to integrate the anticipated changes into the design of urban drainage in response to the increased risk level in cities. This paper presents a pluvial flood risk assessment framework to...

  12. Assessing the influence of long-term urban growth scenarios on urban climate

    OpenAIRE

    Aguejdad, Rahim; Hidalgo, Julia; Doukari, Omar; Masson, Valéry; Houet, Thomas

    2012-01-01

    The objective of this paper is to assess the influence of future urban The objective of this paper is to assess the influence of future urban growth scenarios on future urban climate in Toulouse metropolitan area (France). Specifically, we aim to test the hypothesis that urban growth based on sprawling patterns has a significant influence on the Urban Heat Island (UHI) phenomena than compact patterns. Urban growth simulations, which are based on three contrasting scenarios built by 2100 with ...

  13. A systematic approach to assess human wellbeing demonstrated for impacts of climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Lissner Tabea K.; Reusser Dominik E.; Lakes Tobia; Kropp Jürgen P.

    2014-01-01

    Climate change impacts will affect many important societal sectors, with potential negative consequences for human well-being and livelihoods, however an integrated and systematic measure to assess the state of livelihood conditions in this context is not available. At the same time, human livelihoods and wellbeing are an important part of (social) sustainability. Yet, aspects of human needs and well-being within assessments of sustainability are criticised for being ...

  14. Spatial Interpolation of Daily Rainfall Data for Local Climate Impact Assessment over Greater Sydney Region

    OpenAIRE

    Xihua Yang; Xiaojin Xie; Li Liu; Fei Ji; Lin Wang

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents spatial interpolation techniques to produce finer-scale daily rainfall data from regional climate modeling. Four common interpolation techniques (ANUDEM, Spline, IDW, and Kriging) were compared and assessed against station rainfall data and modeled rainfall. The performance was assessed by the mean absolute error (MAE), mean relative error (MRE), root mean squared error (RMSE), and the spatial and temporal distributions. The results indicate that Inverse Distance Weighting...

  15. Ensemble flood risk assessment in Europe under high end climate scenarios

    OpenAIRE

    ALFIERI LORENZO; Feyen, Luc; DOTTORI FRANCESCO; BIANCHI ALESSANDRA

    2015-01-01

    At the current rate of global warming, the target of limiting it within 2 degrees by the end of the century seems more and more unrealistic. Policymakers, businesses and organizations leading international negotiations urge the scientific community to provide realistic and accurate assessments of the possible consequences of so called “high end” climate scenarios. This study illustrates a novel procedure to assess the future flood risk in Europe under high levels of warming. It combines e...

  16. Rainfall variability and extremes over southern Africa: Assessment of a climate model to reproduce daily extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, C. J. R.; Kniveton, D. R.; Layberry, R.

    2009-04-01

    It is increasingly accepted that that any possible climate change will not only have an influence on mean climate but may also significantly alter climatic variability. A change in the distribution and magnitude of extreme rainfall events (associated with changing variability), such as droughts or flooding, may have a far greater impact on human and natural systems than a changing mean. This issue is of particular importance for environmentally vulnerable regions such as southern Africa. The subcontinent is considered especially vulnerable to and ill-equipped (in terms of adaptation) for extreme events, due to a number of factors including extensive poverty, famine, disease and political instability. Rainfall variability and the identification of rainfall extremes is a function of scale, so high spatial and temporal resolution data are preferred to identify extreme events and accurately predict future variability. The majority of previous climate model verification studies have compared model output with observational data at monthly timescales. In this research, the assessment of ability of a state of the art climate model to simulate climate at daily timescales is carried out using satellite derived rainfall data from the Microwave Infra-Red Algorithm (MIRA). This dataset covers the period from 1993-2002 and the whole of southern Africa at a spatial resolution of 0.1 degree longitude/latitude. The ability of a climate model to simulate current climate provides some indication of how much confidence can be applied to its future predictions. In this paper, simulations of current climate from the UK Meteorological Office Hadley Centre's climate model, in both regional and global mode, are firstly compared to the MIRA dataset at daily timescales. This concentrates primarily on the ability of the model to simulate the spatial and temporal patterns of rainfall variability over southern Africa. Secondly, the ability of the model to reproduce daily rainfall extremes will

  17. Climate change vulnerabilities- an integrated assessment in Pyramid Lake Paiute Indian Reservation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gautam, M. R.; Chief, K.; Wilde, K.; Smith, W.

    2011-12-01

    There are increasing concerns of potential climate change impacts that may place the Truckee River Basin in Nevada under unprecedented stress. We hypothesized that Pyramid Lake, a terminal lake of Truckee River, is prone to climatic as well as non-climatic stressors stemming from cumulative impacts from upstream urban areas and activities. Thus climate change may impair the ability of a major downstream water user, the Pyramid Lake Paiute Tribe (PLPT), to cope and adapt. The conventional approach in assessing vulnerability primarily focuses on hazards or biophysical vulnerabilities, such as water availability, floods, and drought impact. However, we found it inadequate to address the overall vulnerability of the PLPT. Thus in addition to biophysical vulnerabilities, intrinsic and external vulnerabilities were considered such as socio-economic variables (e.g. adaptive capacity) and policy and legal drivers (e.g. water rights). We proposed an elaborate framework for an integrated vulnerability assessment by adapting IPCC framework for vulnerability assessment, the Exposure-Sensitivity-Adaptive Capacity, and applied it to PLPT. Analysis of projected climate change dataset pointed towards increased incidences of floods and droughts and a warming trend over the whole basin with a higher rate at the lower basin in the future. In effort to understand how climatic trends trigger the vulnerability of PLPT, a multi-pronged approach was employed to understand key tribal livelihood assets including an in-depth analysis of the adaptive capacity of PLPT, a climate change survey, and a historical analysis of water conflict and negotiation. Results of the survey identified key natural assets as the lake, endangered fish, rangeland, and wetlands. The framework of a casual-loop diagram was developed in a system dynamic model that incorporated opinions of tribal stakeholders and other experts to evaluate how potential future climate changes might impact the endangered Cui ui fish

  18. Wind Climate Parameters for Wind Turbine Fatigue Load Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Toft, Henrik Stensgaard; Svenningsen, Lasse; Moser, Wolfgang; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Thøgersen, Morten Lybech

    established from the on-site distribution functions of the horizontal mean wind speeds, the 90% quantile of turbulence along with average values of vertical wind shear and air density and the maximum flow inclination. This paper investigates the accuracy of fatigue loads estimated using this equivalent wind...... root flapwise fatigue loads, which are sensitive to wind shear. The results in this paper indicate that using a 75% quantile for the wind shear at each wind speed bin leads to an appropriate, but conservative, assessment of the fatigue loads. However, care should be taken when using this approach for...

  19. Climate change impact assessment in Veneto and Friuli Plain groundwater. Part II: a spatially resolved regional risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pasini, S; Torresan, S; Rizzi, J; Zabeo, A; Critto, A; Marcomini, A

    2012-12-01

    Climate change impact assessment on water resources has received high international attention over the last two decades, due to the observed global warming and its consequences at the global to local scale. In particular, climate-related risks for groundwater and related ecosystems pose a great concern to scientists and water authorities involved in the protection of these valuable resources. The close link of global warming with water cycle alterations encourages research to deepen current knowledge on relationships between climate trends and status of water systems, and to develop predictive tools for their sustainable management, copying with key principles of EU water policy. Within the European project Life+ TRUST (Tool for Regional-scale assessment of groundwater Storage improvement in adaptation to climaTe change), a Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology was developed in order to identify impacts from climate change on groundwater and associated ecosystems (e.g. surface waters, agricultural areas, natural environments) and to rank areas and receptors at risk in the high and middle Veneto and Friuli Plain (Italy). Based on an integrated analysis of impacts, vulnerability and risks linked to climate change at the regional scale, a RRA framework complying with the Sources-Pathway-Receptor-Consequence (SPRC) approach was defined. Relevant impacts on groundwater and surface waters (i.e. groundwater level variations, changes in nitrate infiltration processes, changes in water availability for irrigation) were selected and analyzed through hazard scenario, exposure, susceptibility and risk assessment. The RRA methodology used hazard scenarios constructed through global and high resolution model simulations for the 2071-2100 period, according to IPCC A1B emission scenario in order to produce useful indications for future risk prioritization and to support the addressing of adaptation measures, primarily Managed Artificial Recharge (MAR) techniques. Relevant

  20. Assessing reference evapotranspiration in a subhumid climate in NE Austria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nolz, Reinhard; Eitzinger, Josef; Cepuder, Peter

    2015-04-01

    Computing reference evapotranspiration and multiplying it with a specific crop coefficient as recommended by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) is the most widely accepted approach to estimate plant water requirements. The standardized form of the well-known FAO Penman-Monteith equation, published by the Environmental and Water Resources Institute of the American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE-EWRI), is recommended as a standard procedure for calculating reference evapotranspiration. Applied and validated under different climatic conditions it generally achieved good results compared to other methods. However, several studies documented deviations between measured and calculated reference evapotranspiration depending on local environmental conditions. Consequently, it seems advisable to evaluate the model under local environmental conditions. Evapotranspiration was determined at a subhumid site in Austria (48°12'N, 16°34'E; 157 m asl) using a large weighing lysimeter operated at (limited) reference conditions and compared with calculations according to ASCE-EWRI. The lysimeter had an inner diameter of 1.9 m and a hemispherical bottom with a maximum depth of 2.5 m. Seepage water was measured at a free draining outlet using a tipping bucket. Lysimeter mass changes were sensed by a weighing facility with an accuracy of ±0.1 mm. Both rainfall and evapotranspiration were determined directly from lysimeter data using a simple water balance equation. Meteorological data for the ASCE-EWRI model were obtained from a weather station of the Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics, Austria (ZAMG). The study period was from 2005 to 2010, analyses were based upon daily time steps. Daily calculated reference evapotranspiration was generally overestimated at small values, whereas it was rather underestimated when evapotranspiration was large, which is supported also by other studies. In the given case, advection of sensible heat proved

  1. Assessing insect responses to climate change: What are we testing for? Where should we be heading?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nigel R. Andrew

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available To understand how researchers are tackling globally important issues, it is crucial to identify whether current research is comprehensive enough to make substantive predictions about general responses. We examined how research on climate change affecting insects is being assessed, what factors are being tested and the localities of studies, from 1703 papers published between 1985 and August 2012. Most published research (64% is generated from Europe and North America and being dedicated to core data analysis, with 29% of the studies analysed dedicated to Lepidoptera and 22% Diptera: which are well above their contribution to the currently identified insect species richness (estimated at 13% and 17% respectively. Research publications on Coleoptera fall well short of their proportional contribution (19% of publications but 39% of insect species identified, and to a lesser extent so do Hemiptera, and Hymenoptera. Species specific responses to changes in temperature by assessing distribution/range shifts or changes in abundance were the most commonly used methods of assessing the impact of climate change on insects. Research on insects and climate change to date is dominated by manuscripts assessing butterflies in Europe, insects of economic and/or environmental concern in forestry, agriculture, and model organisms. The research on understanding how insects will respond to a rapidly changing climate is still in its infancy, but the current trends of publications give a good basis for how we are attempting to assess insect responses. In particular, there is a crucial need for broader studies of ecological, behavioural, physiological and life history responses to be addressed across a greater range of geographic locations, particularly Asia, Africa and Australasia, and in areas of high human population growth and habitat modification. It is still too early in our understanding of taxa responses to climate change to know if charismatic taxa, such as

  2. BioCAS: Biometeorological Climate impact Assessment System for building-scale impact assessment of heat-stress related mortality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kim, Kyu Rang

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available An urban climate analysis system for Seoul was combined with biometeorological models for the spatially distributed assessment of heat stress risks. The Biometeorological Climate impact Assessment System (BioCAS is based on the Climate Analysis Seoul (CAS workbench which provides urban planners with gridded data relevant for local climate assessment at 25 m and 5 m spatial resolutions. The influence of building morphology and vegetation on mean radiant temperature Tmrt was simulated by the SOLWEIG model. Gridded hourly perceived temperature PT was computed using the Klima-Michel Model for a hot day in 2012. Daily maximum perceived temperature PTmax was then derived from these data and applied to an empirical-statistical model that explains the relationship between PTmax and excess mortality rate rEM in Seoul. The resultant rEM map quantifies the detrimental impact of hot weather at the building scale. Mean (maximum values of rEM in old and new town areas in an urban re-development site in Seoul were estimated at 2.3 % (50.7 % and 0 % (8.6 %, respectively, indicating that urban re-development in the new town area has generally resulted in a strong reduction of heat-stress related mortality. The study illustrates that BioCAS can generally be applied for the quantification of the impacts of hot weather on human health for different urban development scenarios. Further improvements are required, particularly to consider indoor climate conditions causing heat stress, as well as socio-economic status and population structure of local residents.

  3. Assessing climate impacts and risks of ocean albedo modification in the Arctic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mengis, N.; Martin, T.; Keller, D. P.; Oschlies, A.

    2016-05-01

    The ice albedo feedback is one of the key factors of accelerated temperature increase in the high northern latitudes under global warming. This study assesses climate impacts and risks of idealized Arctic Ocean albedo modification (AOAM), a proposed climate engineering method, during transient climate change simulations with varying representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios. We find no potential for reversing trends in all assessed Arctic climate metrics under increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations. AOAM only yields an initial offset during the first years after implementation. Nevertheless, sea ice loss can be delayed by 25(60) years in the RCP8.5(RCP4.5) scenario and the delayed thawing of permafrost soils in the AOAM simulations prevents up to 40(32) Pg of carbon from being released by 2100. AOAM initially dampens the decline of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning and delays the onset of open ocean deep convection in the Nordic Seas under the RCP scenarios. Both these processes cause a subsurface warming signal in the AOAM simulations relative to the default RCP simulations with the potential to destabilize Arctic marine gas hydrates. Furthermore, in 2100, the RCP8.5 AOAM simulation diverts more from the 2005-2015 reference state in many climate metrics than the RCP4.5 simulation without AOAM. Considering the demonstrated risks, we conclude that concerning longer time scales, reductions in emissions remain the safest and most effective way to prevent severe changes in the Arctic.

  4. International Conference on Climate Change Adaptation Assessments: Conference summary and statement

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1995-08-01

    The International Conference on Climate Change Adaptation Assessments was held in St. Petersburg, Russian Federation, from May 22--25, 1995. Sponsored by the Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring, the US Country Studies Program, and the directorate General for International Cooperation of the Netherlands Government, it was the first international conference focusing exclusively on adaptation to climate change. More than 100 people from 29 countries on five continents participated. The conference primarily addressed measures to anticipate the potential effects of climate change to minimize negative effects and take advantage of any positive effects. The focus was on what governments, institutions, and individuals can do to prepare for climate change. The conference dealt with two major topics: What adaptation options are most effective and efficient in anticipating climate change and what methods should be used to assess the effectiveness and efficiency of adaptation options. Brief summaries are given from the following sessions on agriculture; Water resources; coastal resources; ecosystems and forests; fisheries; human settlements; water and agriculture; and the panel session on international adaptation in national communications and other development plans and needs for technical assistance.

  5. European Monitoring Systems and Data for Assessing Environmental and Climate Impacts on Human Infectious Diseases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gordon L. Nichols

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Surveillance is critical to understanding the epidemiology and control of infectious diseases. The growing concern over climate and other drivers that may increase infectious disease threats to future generations has stimulated a review of the surveillance systems and environmental data sources that might be used to assess future health impacts from climate change in Europe. We present an overview of organizations, agencies and institutions that are responsible for infectious disease surveillance in Europe. We describe the surveillance systems, tracking tools, communication channels, information exchange and outputs in light of environmental and climatic drivers of infectious diseases. We discuss environmental and climatic data sets that lend themselves to epidemiological analysis. Many of the environmental data sets have a relatively uniform quality across EU Member States because they are based on satellite measurements or EU funded FP6 or FP7 projects with full EU coverage. Case-reporting systems for surveillance of infectious diseases should include clear and consistent case definitions and reporting formats that are geo-located at an appropriate resolution. This will allow linkage to environmental, social and climatic sources that will enable risk assessments, future threat evaluations, outbreak management and interventions to reduce disease burden.

  6. Incorporating long-term climate change in performance assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Swift, P.N. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Baker, B.L. [Technadyne Engineering Consultants, Inc., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Economy, K. [Ecodynamics Research Associates, Albuquerque, NM (United States); Garner, J.W. [Applied Physics, Inc., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Helton, J.C. [Arizona State Univ., Tempe, AZ (United States); Rudeen, D.K. [New Mexico Engineering Research Institute, Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    1994-03-01

    The United States Department of Energy (DOE) is developing the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) in southeastern New Mexico for the disposal of transuranic wastes generated by defense programs. Applicable regulations (40 CFR 191) require the DOE to evaluate disposal-system performance for 10,000 yr. Climatic changes may affect performance by altering groundwater flow. Paleoclimatic data from southeastern New Mexico and the surrounding area indicate that the wettest and coolest Quaternary climate at the site can be represented by that at the last glacial maximum, when mean annual precipitation was approximately twice that of the present. The hottest and driest climates have been similar to that of the present. The regularity of global glacial cycles during the late Pleistocene confirms that the climate of the last glacial maximum is suitable for use as a cooler and wetter bound for variability during the next 10,000 yr. Climate variability is incorporated into groundwater-flow modeling for WIPP PA by causing hydraulic head in a portion of the model-domain boundary to rise to the ground surface with hypothetical increases in precipitation during the next 10,000 yr. Variability in modeled disposal-system performance introduced by allowing had values to vary over this range is insignificant compared to variability resulting from other causes, including incomplete understanding of transport processes. Preliminary performance assessments suggest that climate variability will not affect regulatory compliance.

  7. Phenology as an Integrative Science for Assessment of Global Climate Change Impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weltzin, J.; Losleben, M. V.

    2007-12-01

    Phenology is the study of periodic plant and animal life cycle events and how these are influenced by seasonal and interannual variations in climate. Examples include the timing of leafing and flowering, agricultural crop stages, insect emergence, and animal migration. All of these events are sensitive measures of climatic variation and change, are relatively simple to record and understand, and are vital to both the scientific and public interest. Integration of spatially-extensive phenological data and models with both short and long-term climatic forecasts offer a powerful agent for human adaptation to ongoing and future climate change. However, a new data resource of national scale is needed to capture the valuable information potential of phenological responses to climate change; to study its nature, pace and the effects of ecosystem function; and to understand connectivity and synchrony among species. The USA National Phenology Network (USA-NPN) is being designed and organized to engage federal agencies, environmental networks and field stations, educational institutions, and mass participation by citizen scientists to create this data resource, and develop phenology research potential. This presentation illustrates the variety of source, scale, and use of phenology in assessing current and future global climate change impacts.

  8. Incorporating long-term climate change in performance assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The United States Department of Energy (DOE) is developing the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) in southeastern New Mexico for the disposal of transuranic wastes generated by defense programs. Applicable regulations (40 CFR 191) require the DOE to evaluate disposal-system performance for 10,000 yr. Climatic changes may affect performance by altering groundwater flow. Paleoclimatic data from southeastern New Mexico and the surrounding area indicate that the wettest and coolest Quaternary climate at the site can be represented by that at the last glacial maximum, when mean annual precipitation was approximately twice that of the present. The hottest and driest climates have been similar to that of the present. The regularity of global glacial cycles during the late Pleistocene confirms that the climate of the last glacial maximum is suitable for use as a cooler and wetter bound for variability during the next 10,000 yr. Climate variability is incorporated into groundwater-flow modeling for WIPP PA by causing hydraulic head in a portion of the model-domain boundary to rise to the ground surface with hypothetical increases in precipitation during the next 10,000 yr. Variability in modeled disposal-system performance introduced by allowing head values to vary over this range is insignificant compared to variability resulting from other causes, including incomplete understanding of transport processes. Preliminary performance assessments suggest that climate variability will not affect regulatory compliance

  9. Incorporating long-term climate change in performance assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The United States Department of Energy (DOE) is developing the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) in southeastern New Mexico for the disposal of transuranic wastes generated by defense programs. Applicable regulations (40 CFR 191) require the DOE to evaluate disposal-system performance for 10,000 yr. Climatic changes may affect performance by altering groundwater flow. Paleoclimatic data from southeastern New Mexico and the surrounding area indicate that the wettest and coolest Quaternary climate at the site can be represented by that at the last glacial maximum, when mean annual precipitation was approximately twice that of the present. The hottest and driest climates have been similar to that of the present. The regularity of global glacial cycles during the late Pleistocene confirms that the climate of the last glacial maximum is suitable for use as a cooler and wetter bound for variability during the next 10,000 yr. Climate variability is incorporated into groundwater-flow modeling for WIPP PA by causing hydraulic head in a portion of the model-domain boundary to rise to the ground surface with hypothetical increases in precipitation during the next 10,000 yr. Variability in modeled disposal-system performance introduced by allowing had values to vary over this range is insignificant compared to variability resulting from other causes, including incomplete understanding of transport processes. Preliminary performance assessments suggest that climate variability will not affect regulatory compliance

  10. Integrating human responses to climate change into conservation vulnerability assessments and adaptation planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maxwell, Sean L; Venter, Oscar; Jones, Kendall R; Watson, James E M

    2015-10-01

    The impact of climate change on biodiversity is now evident, with the direct impacts of changing temperature and rainfall patterns and increases in the magnitude and frequency of extreme events on species distribution, populations, and overall ecosystem function being increasingly publicized. Changes in the climate system are also affecting human communities, and a range of human responses across terrestrial and marine realms have been witnessed, including altered agricultural activities, shifting fishing efforts, and human migration. Failing to account for the human responses to climate change is likely to compromise climate-smart conservation efforts. Here, we use a well-established conservation planning framework to show how integrating human responses to climate change into both species- and site-based vulnerability assessments and adaptation plans is possible. By explicitly taking into account human responses, conservation practitioners will improve their evaluation of species and ecosystem vulnerability, and will be better able to deliver win-wins for human- and biodiversity-focused climate adaptation. PMID:26555860

  11. How Dangerous are 'Dirty Bombs'?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A radiological weapon (or a radiation weapon) is any weapon that is designed to spread radioactivity, either to kill, or to deny the use of an area (a modern version of salting the earth) and consists of a device (such as a nuclear or conventional explosive), which spreads radioactive material. Recently, it has been called 'dirty bombs'. This term refers especially to a weapon that would disperse radioactive material through conventional explosives. The term was put in focus in June 2002, when U. S. officials announced they had captured an al-Qaida terrorist in Chicago who was allegedly planning for such a device. Designed to produce radiation sickness in a military force or a civilian population instead of destroying a target, Iraq developed and tested radiation weapons in 1980s, during the war with Iran with intention to produce health effects that would be difficult to explain. The project was abandoned because a radiation levels low enough to escape detection were also insufficient to cause significant medical problems in the weeks following an attack. Radiological weapons are therefore widely considered to be militarily useless for a state-sponsored army and are not believed to have been deployed by any military forces. However, these weapons have been suggested as a possible terror weapon in order to create fear and panic in densely populated areas and havoc to local economies. They do not require weapons-grade materials, and common materials such as 137Cs used in radiological medical equipment, could be used. Subsequent removal of urban radioactive contamination, i.e. cleanup efforts according to experiences from the radiological accident in a Brazilian city of Goiania could be long, difficult and costly. Therefore, the overall effects of exploded dirty bombs are hard to assess considering that: a) The health effects of low-level radiation are hotly contested. Namely, according to 'linear, no-threshold' dosimetric model, any increase over background is

  12. Climate modeling - a tool for the assessment of the paleodistribution of source and reservoir rocks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Roscher, M.; Schneider, J.W. [Technische Univ. Bergakademie Freiberg (Germany). Inst. fuer Geologie; Berner, U. [Bundesanstalt fuer Geowissenschaften und Rohstoffe, Hannover (Germany). Referat Organische Geochemie/Kohlenwasserstoff-Forschung

    2008-10-23

    In an on-going project of BGR and TU Bergakademie Freiberg, numeric paleo-climate modeling is used as a tool for the assessment of the paleo-distribution of organic rich deposits as well as of reservoir rocks. This modeling approach is based on new ideas concerning the formation of the Pangea supercontinent. The new plate tectonic concept is supported by paleo- magnetic data as it fits the 95% confidence interval of published data. Six Permocarboniferous time slices (340, 320, 300, 290, 270, 255 Ma) were chosen within a first paleo-climate modeling approach as they represent the most important changes of the Late Paleozoic climate development. The digital maps have a resolution of 2.8 x 2.8 (T42), suitable for high-resolution climate modeling, using the PLASIM model. CO{sub 2} concentrations of the paleo-atmosphere and paleo-insolation values have been estimated by published methods. For the purpose of validation, quantitative model output, had to be transformed into qualitative parameters in order to be able to compare digital data with qualitative data of geologic indicators. The model output of surface temperatures and precipitation was therefore converted into climate zones. The reconstructed occurrences of geological indicators like aeolian sands, evaporites, reefs, coals, oil source rocks, tillites, phosphorites and cherts were then compared to the computed paleo-climate zones. Examples of the Permian Pangea show a very good agreement between model results and geological indicators. From the modeling approach we are able to identify climatic processes which lead to the deposition of hydrocarbon source and reservoir rocks. The regional assessment of such atmospheric processes may be used for the identification of the paleo-distribution of organic rich deposits or rock types suitable to form hydrocarbon reservoirs. (orig.)

  13. Assessing Climate Change Impacts on the Performance of Major Water Projects over China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Q.; Liu, X.; Yin, Y. Y.; Zhang, C.; Zhang, X.

    2014-12-01

    The terrestrial water cycle has been largely altered by water projects in China. Since 1950, half of the world's large dams over 15 m height have been built in China. The installed hydropower capacity in China was 249 GW in 2012, accounting for about one-fifth of the total installed hydropower capacity of the world. China has also pursued an ambitious effort, the South-North Water Diversion Project, to transfer 44.8 billion m3 of freshwater annually from southern China to the drier north. Climate change is expected to result in changes in land surface hydrology, thus pose a huge challenge to water management. The potential impacts of climate change on the performance of the major water projects are yet to be assessed. We used a land surface hydrological model together with a simple treatment of reservoir operation to assess the impact of hydrological change on the functions of the major water projects under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate and socio-economic scenarios. The bias-corrected climate data from global climate models under different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) were used to drive the hydrological model. The operation of 474 major reservoirs was considered with an operating rule to generate maximum possible hydroelectricity and to fulfill water diversion demands. The future socioeconomic conditions, the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), were used to estimate the water requirement and leverage the water diversion. The modeling results suggest that climate change would have negative impacts on hydropower production and water supply reliability in China. This research highlights the need to evaluate the performance change of existing water infrastructures and to develop adaptation strategy in sustainable water management in a changing environment.

  14. Assessment of Mould Growth for Library Buildings in Tropical Climates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ngah Abdul Wahab S.

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper attempt to give a brief insight into the importance of studying mould growth in library building that relates to human health and causes of material deterioration to library materials. It’s significant to conduct this research because no similar study has carried out for a library building in Malaysia. Recent literature on the topics reviews to gain insight into developing a theoretical framework and research method. Likewise, the study also supports through pilot study questionnaires with 30 respondents from two different university libraries. The finding revealed to further investigation and mould growth assessment to be conducted that useful in protecting library materials and users health effects through environmental control.

  15. Identifying the world's most climate change vulnerable species: a systematic trait-based assessment of all birds, amphibians and corals.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wendy B Foden

    Full Text Available Climate change will have far-reaching impacts on biodiversity, including increasing extinction rates. Current approaches to quantifying such impacts focus on measuring exposure to climatic change and largely ignore the biological differences between species that may significantly increase or reduce their vulnerability. To address this, we present a framework for assessing three dimensions of climate change vulnerability, namely sensitivity, exposure and adaptive capacity; this draws on species' biological traits and their modeled exposure to projected climatic changes. In the largest such assessment to date, we applied this approach to each of the world's birds, amphibians and corals (16,857 species. The resulting assessments identify the species with greatest relative vulnerability to climate change and the geographic areas in which they are concentrated, including the Amazon basin for amphibians and birds, and the central Indo-west Pacific (Coral Triangle for corals. We found that high concentration areas for species with traits conferring highest sensitivity and lowest adaptive capacity differ from those of highly exposed species, and we identify areas where exposure-based assessments alone may over or under-estimate climate change impacts. We found that 608-851 bird (6-9%, 670-933 amphibian (11-15%, and 47-73 coral species (6-9% are both highly climate change vulnerable and already threatened with extinction on the IUCN Red List. The remaining highly climate change vulnerable species represent new priorities for conservation. Fewer species are highly climate change vulnerable under lower IPCC SRES emissions scenarios, indicating that reducing greenhouse emissions will reduce climate change driven extinctions. Our study answers the growing call for a more biologically and ecologically inclusive approach to assessing climate change vulnerability. By facilitating independent assessment of the three dimensions of climate change vulnerability

  16. Assessing the impacts of climate change on river basin management: A new method with application to the Nile River

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tidwell, Amy C.

    A framework is developed for the assessment of climate change impacts on water resources systems. The applied techniques include: quantifying global climate model (GCM) skill over a range of time scales; developing future climate scenarios based on GCM data that are found to skillfully represent the observed climate over an historical baseline period; and using the climate scenarios together with hydrologic and water resources models to make assessments of the potential impacts and implications of climate change on water resources systems. A statistical analysis of GCM skill in East Africa shows that temperature is well represented in the GCMs at monthly to annual time scales. Precipitation is found to be much less reliable in the models and shows skill in fewer seasons and nodes than temperature. Eight climate scenarios, stemming from three global climate models and two atmospheric emissions scenarios, project temperature increases between 2 and 5° Celsius by the year 2080. Precipitation projections vary widely across models as well as regionally. The scenarios project changes in precipitation from -38% to +42%. The climate change impact methodology is applied to the Nile River Basin. It is shown that, in spite of widely varying precipitation projections, the major sub-basins of the Nile River will experience decreases in watershed runoff under all eight climate scenarios. Detailed water resources models are employed to assess the system wide response to the climate-induced hydrologic changes. The assessments indicate that water supply deficits will emerge by 2030 and continue to grow in frequency and magnitude by 2080. Additional impacts include reservoir depletion and reduced hydropower generation. An assessment of the river system response to basin development projects, including additional water storage and wetlands water conservation, indicates that adverse climate impacts may be mitigated for 30 to 40 years. The assessments demonstrate the relevance of

  17. Assessing impact of climate change on forest cover type shifts in Western Himalayan Eco-region

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    P.K.Joshi; Asha Rawat; Sheena Narula; Vinay Sinha

    2012-01-01

    Climate is a critical factor affecting forest ecosystems and their capacity to produce goods and services.Effects of climate change on forests depend on ecosystem-specific factors including dimensions of climate (texture,precipitation,drought,wind etc.).Available information is not sufficient to support a quantitative assessment of the ecological,social and economic consequences.The present study assessed shifts in forest cover types of Western Himalayan Eco-region (700-4500 m).100 randomly selected samples (75 for training and 25 for testing the model),genetic algorithm of rule set parameters and climatic envelopes were used to assess the distribution of five prominent forest cover types (Temperate evergreen,Tropical semi-evergreen,Temperate conifer,Subtropical conifer,and Tropical moist deciduous forests).Modelling was conducted for four different scenarios,current scenario,changed precipitation (8% increase),changed temperature (1.07℃ increase),and both changed temperature and precipitation.On increasing precipitation a downward shift in the temperate evergreen and tropical semi-evergreen was observed,while sub-tropical conifer and tropical moist-deciduous forests showed a slight upward shift and temperate conifer showed no shift.On increasing temperature,an upward shift in all forest types was observed except sub-tropical conifer forests without significant changes.When both temperature and precipitation were changed,the actual distribution was maintained and slight upward shift was observed in all the forest types except sub-tropical conifer.It is important to understand the likely impacts of the projected climate change on the forest ecosystems,so that better management and conservation strategies can be adopted for the bindiversity and forest dependent community.Knowledge of impact mechanisms also enables identification and mitigation of some of the conditions that increase vulnerability to climate change in the forest sector.

  18. A tool to assess potential for alien plant establishment and expansion under climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roger, Erin; Duursma, Daisy Englert; Downey, Paul O; Gallagher, Rachael V; Hughes, Lesley; Steel, Jackie; Johnson, Stephen B; Leishman, Michelle R

    2015-08-15

    Predicting the influence of climate change on the potential distribution of naturalised alien plant species is an important and challenging task. While prioritisation of management actions for alien plants under current climatic conditions has been widely adopted, very few systems explicitly incorporate the potential of future changes in climate conditions to influence the distribution of alien plant species. Here, we develop an Australia-wide screening tool to assess the potential of naturalised alien plants to establish and spread under both current and future climatic conditions. The screening tool developed uses five spatially explicit criteria to establish the likelihood of alien plant population establishment and expansion under baseline climate conditions and future climates for the decades 2035 and 2065. Alien plants are then given a threat rating according to current and future threat to enable natural resource managers to focus on those species that pose the largest potential threat now and in the future. To demonstrate the screening tool, we present results for a representative sample of approximately 10% (n = 292) of Australia's known, naturalised alien plant species. Overall, most alien plant species showed decreases in area of habitat suitability under future conditions compared to current conditions and therefore the threat rating of most alien plant species declined between current and future conditions. Use of the screening tool is intended to assist natural resource managers in assessing the threat of alien plant establishment and spread under current and future conditions and thus prioritise detailed weed risk assessments for those species that pose the greatest threat. The screening tool is associated with a searchable database for all 292 alien plant species across a range of spatial scales, available through an interactive web-based portal at http://weedfutures.net/. PMID:26063516

  19. Assessment of soil organic carbon stocks under future climate and land cover changes in Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yigini, Yusuf; Panagos, Panos

    2016-07-01

    Soil organic carbon plays an important role in the carbon cycling of terrestrial ecosystems, variations in soil organic carbon stocks are very important for the ecosystem. In this study, a geostatistical model was used for predicting current and future soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in Europe. The first phase of the study predicts current soil organic carbon content by using stepwise multiple linear regression and ordinary kriging and the second phase of the study projects the soil organic carbon to the near future (2050) by using a set of environmental predictors. We demonstrate here an approach to predict present and future soil organic carbon stocks by using climate, land cover, terrain and soil data and their projections. The covariates were selected for their role in the carbon cycle and their availability for the future model. The regression-kriging as a base model is predicting current SOC stocks in Europe by using a set of covariates and dense SOC measurements coming from LUCAS Soil Database. The base model delivers coefficients for each of the covariates to the future model. The overall model produced soil organic carbon maps which reflect the present and the future predictions (2050) based on climate and land cover projections. The data of the present climate conditions (long-term average (1950-2000)) and the future projections for 2050 were obtained from WorldClim data portal. The future climate projections are the recent climate projections mentioned in the Fifth Assessment IPCC report. These projections were extracted from the global climate models (GCMs) for four representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The results suggest an overall increase in SOC stocks by 2050 in Europe (EU26) under all climate and land cover scenarios, but the extent of the increase varies between the climate model and emissions scenarios. PMID:27082446

  20. The uncertainty cascade in flood risk assessment under changing climatic conditions - the Biala Tarnowska case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doroszkiewicz, Joanna; Romanowicz, Renata

    2016-04-01

    Uncertainty in the results of the hydraulic model is not only associated with the limitations of that model and the shortcomings of data. An important factor that has a major impact on the uncertainty of the flood risk assessment in a changing climate conditions is associated with the uncertainty of future climate scenarios (IPCC WG I, 2013). Future climate projections provided by global climate models are used to generate future runoff required as an input to hydraulic models applied in the derivation of flood risk maps. Biala Tarnowska catchment, situated in southern Poland is used as a case study. Future discharges at the input to a hydraulic model are obtained using the HBV model and climate projections obtained from the EUROCORDEX project. The study describes a cascade of uncertainty related to different stages of the process of derivation of flood risk maps under changing climate conditions. In this context it takes into account the uncertainty of future climate projections, an uncertainty of flow routing model, the propagation of that uncertainty through the hydraulic model, and finally, the uncertainty related to the derivation of flood risk maps. One of the aims of this study is an assessment of a relative impact of different sources of uncertainty on the uncertainty of flood risk maps. Due to the complexity of the process, an assessment of total uncertainty of maps of inundation probability might be very computer time consuming. As a way forward we present an application of a hydraulic model simulator based on a nonlinear transfer function model for the chosen locations along the river reach. The transfer function model parameters are estimated based on the simulations of the hydraulic model at each of the model cross-section. The study shows that the application of the simulator substantially reduces the computer requirements related to the derivation of flood risk maps under future climatic conditions. Acknowledgements: This work was supported by the