WorldWideScience

Sample records for arctic climate system

  1. Arctic Climate Systems Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ivey, Mark D. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Robinson, David G. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Boslough, Mark B. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Backus, George A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Peterson, Kara J. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); van Bloemen Waanders, Bart G. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Swiler, Laura Painton [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Desilets, Darin Maurice [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Reinert, Rhonda Karen [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2015-03-01

    This study began with a challenge from program area managers at Sandia National Laboratories to technical staff in the energy, climate, and infrastructure security areas: apply a systems-level perspective to existing science and technology program areas in order to determine technology gaps, identify new technical capabilities at Sandia that could be applied to these areas, and identify opportunities for innovation. The Arctic was selected as one of these areas for systems level analyses, and this report documents the results. In this study, an emphasis was placed on the arctic atmosphere since Sandia has been active in atmospheric research in the Arctic since 1997. This study begins with a discussion of the challenges and benefits of analyzing the Arctic as a system. It goes on to discuss current and future needs of the defense, scientific, energy, and intelligence communities for more comprehensive data products related to the Arctic; assess the current state of atmospheric measurement resources available for the Arctic; and explain how the capabilities at Sandia National Laboratories can be used to address the identified technological, data, and modeling needs of the defense, scientific, energy, and intelligence communities for Arctic support.

  2. Arctic Climate Tipping Points

    OpenAIRE

    Lenton, Timothy M.

    2012-01-01

    There is widespread concern that anthropogenic global warming will trigger Arctic climate tipping points. The Arctic has a long history of natural, abrupt climate changes, which together with current observations and model projections, can help us to identify which parts of the Arctic climate system might pass future tipping points. Here the climate tipping points are defined, noting that not all of them involve bifurcations leading to irreversible change. Past abrupt climate changes in the A...

  3. Integrated regional changes in arctic climate feedbacks: Implications for the global climate system

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGuire, A.D.; Chapin, F. S., III; Walsh, J.E.; Wirth, C.

    2006-01-01

    The Arctic is a key part of the global climate system because the net positive energy input to the tropics must ultimately be resolved through substantial energy losses in high-latitude regions. The Arctic influences the global climate system through both positive and negative feedbacks that involve physical, ecological, and human systems of the Arctic. The balance of evidence suggests that positive feedbacks to global warming will likely dominate in the Arctic during the next 50 to 100 years. However, the negative feedbacks associated with changing the freshwater balance of the Arctic Ocean might abruptly launch the planet into another glacial period on longer timescales. In light of uncertainties and the vulnerabilities of the climate system to responses in the Arctic, it is important that we improve our understanding of how integrated regional changes in the Arctic will likely influence the evolution of the global climate system. Copyright ?? 2006 by Annual Reviews. All rights reserved.

  4. Arctic melt ponds and bifurcations in the climate system

    CERN Document Server

    Sudakov, Ivan; Golden, Kenneth M

    2014-01-01

    Understanding how sea ice melts is critical to climate projections. In the Arctic, melt ponds that develop on the surface of sea ice floes during the late spring and summer largely determine their albedo $-$ a key parameter in climate modeling. Here we explore the possibility of a simple sea ice climate model passing through a bifurcation point $-$ an irreversible critical threshold as the system warms, by incorporating geometric information about melt pond evolution. This study is based on a nonlinear phase transition model for melt ponds, and bifurcation analysis of a simple climate model with ice - albedo feedback as the key mechanism driving the system to a potential bifurcation point.

  5. Influence of Sea Ice on Arctic Marine Sulfur Biogeochemistry in the Community Climate System Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Deal, Clara [Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AL (United States); Jin, Meibing [Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AL (United States)

    2013-06-30

    Global climate models (GCMs) have not effectively considered how responses of arctic marine ecosystems to a warming climate will influence the global climate system. A key response of arctic marine ecosystems that may substantially influence energy exchange in the Arctic is a change in dimethylsulfide (DMS) emissions, because DMS emissions influence cloud albedo. This response is closely tied to sea ice through its impacts on marine ecosystem carbon and sulfur cycling, and the ice-albedo feedback implicated in accelerated arctic warming. To reduce the uncertainty in predictions from coupled climate simulations, important model components of the climate system, such as feedbacks between arctic marine biogeochemistry and climate, need to be reasonably and realistically modeled. This research first involved model development to improve the representation of marine sulfur biogeochemistry simulations to understand/diagnose the control of sea-ice-related processes on the variability of DMS dynamics. This study will help build GCM predictions that quantify the relative current and possible future influences of arctic marine ecosystems on the global climate system. Our overall research objective was to improve arctic marine biogeochemistry in the Community Climate System Model (CCSM, now CESM). Working closely with the Climate Ocean Sea Ice Model (COSIM) team at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), we added 1 sea-ice algae and arctic DMS production and related biogeochemistry to the global Parallel Ocean Program model (POP) coupled to the LANL sea ice model (CICE). Both CICE and POP are core components of CESM. Our specific research objectives were: 1) Develop a state-of-the-art ice-ocean DMS model for application in climate models, using observations to constrain the most crucial parameters; 2) Improve the global marine sulfur model used in CESM by including DMS biogeochemistry in the Arctic; and 3) Assess how sea ice influences DMS dynamics in the arctic marine

  6. The expedition ARCTIC `96 of RV `Polarstern` (ARK XII) with the Arctic Climate System Study (ACSYS). Cruise report; Die Expedition ARCTIC `96 des FS `Polarstern` (ARK XII) mit der Arctic Climate System Study (ACSYS). Fahrtbericht

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Augstein, E.

    1997-11-01

    The multinational expedition ARCTIC `96 was carried out jointly by two ships, the German RV POLARSTERN and the Swedish RV ODEN. The research programme was developed by scientists from British, Canadian, Finish, German, Irish, Norwegian, Russian, Swedish and US American research institutions and universities. The physical programme on POLARSTERN was primarily designed to foster the Arctic Climte System Study (ACSYS) in the framework of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). Investigations during the recent years have provided substantial evidence that the Arctic Ocean and the adjacent shelf seas play a significant role in the thermohaline oceanic circulation and may therefore have a distinct influence on global climate. Consequently the main ACSYS goals are concerned with studies of the governing oceanic, atmospheric and hydrological processes in the entire Arctic region. (orig.) [Deutsch] Die Expedition ARCTIC `96 wurde von zwei Forschungsschiffen, der deutschen POLARSTERN und der schwedischen ODEN unter Beteiligung von Wissenschaftlern und Technikern aus Deutschland, Finnland, Grossbritannien, Irland, Kanada, Norwegen, Russland, Schweden und den Vereinigten Staaten von Amerika durchgefuehrt. Die physikalischen Projekte auf der POLARSTERN dienten ueberwiegend der Unterstuetzung der Arctic Climate System Study (ACSYS) des Weltklimaforschungsprogramms, die auf die Erforschung der vorherrschenden ozeanischen, atmosphaerischen, kryosphaerischen und hydrologischen Prozesse der Arktisregion ausgerichtet ist. (orig.)

  7. COLLABORATIVE RESEARCH: TOWARDS ADVANCED UNDERSTANDING AND PREDICTIVE CAPABILITY OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE ARCTIC USING A HIGH-RESOLUTION REGIONAL ARCTIC CLIMATE SYSTEM MODEL

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gutowski, William J.

    2013-02-07

    The motivation for this project was to advance the science of climate change and prediction in the Arctic region. Its primary goals were to (i) develop a state-of-the-art Regional Arctic Climate system Model (RACM) including high-resolution atmosphere, land, ocean, sea ice and land hydrology components and (ii) to perform extended numerical experiments using high performance computers to minimize uncertainties and fundamentally improve current predictions of climate change in the northern polar regions. These goals were realized first through evaluation studies of climate system components via one-way coupling experiments. Simulations were then used to examine the effects of advancements in climate component systems on their representation of main physics, time-mean fields and to understand variability signals at scales over many years. As such this research directly addressed some of the major science objectives of the BER Climate Change Research Division (CCRD) regarding the advancement of long-term climate prediction.

  8. Regional Arctic System Model (RASM): A Tool to Advance Understanding and Prediction of Arctic Climate Change at Process Scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maslowski, W.; Roberts, A.; Osinski, R.; Brunke, M.; Cassano, J. J.; Clement Kinney, J. L.; Craig, A.; Duvivier, A.; Fisel, B. J.; Gutowski, W. J., Jr.; Hamman, J.; Hughes, M.; Nijssen, B.; Zeng, X.

    2014-12-01

    The Arctic is undergoing rapid climatic changes, which are some of the most coordinated changes currently occurring anywhere on Earth. They are exemplified by the retreat of the perennial sea ice cover, which integrates forcing by, exchanges with and feedbacks between atmosphere, ocean and land. While historical reconstructions from Global Climate and Global Earth System Models (GC/ESMs) are in broad agreement with these changes, the rate of change in the GC/ESMs remains outpaced by observations. Reasons for that stem from a combination of coarse model resolution, inadequate parameterizations, unrepresented processes and a limited knowledge of physical and other real world interactions. We demonstrate the capability of the Regional Arctic System Model (RASM) in addressing some of the GC/ESM limitations in simulating observed seasonal to decadal variability and trends in the sea ice cover and climate. RASM is a high resolution, fully coupled, pan-Arctic climate model that uses the Community Earth System Model (CESM) framework. It uses the Los Alamos Sea Ice Model (CICE) and Parallel Ocean Program (POP) configured at an eddy-permitting resolution of 1/12° as well as the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) and Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) models at 50 km resolution. All RASM components are coupled via the CESM flux coupler (CPL7) at 20-minute intervals. RASM is an example of limited-area, process-resolving, fully coupled earth system model, which due to the additional constraints from lateral boundary conditions and nudging within a regional model domain facilitates detailed comparisons with observational statistics that are not possible with GC/ESMs. In this talk, we will emphasize the utility of RASM to understand sensitivity to variable parameter space, importance of critical processes, coupled feedbacks and ultimately to reduce uncertainty in arctic climate change projections.

  9. a New Japanese Project for Arctic Climate Change Research - Grene Arctic - (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Enomoto, H.

    2013-12-01

    A new Arctic Climate Change Research Project 'Rapid Change of the Arctic Climate System and its Global Influences' has started in 2011 for a five years project. GRENE-Arctic project is an initiative of Arctic study by more than 30 Japanese universities and institutes as the flame work of GRENE (Green Network of Excellence) of MEXT (Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, Japan). The GRENE-Arctic project set four strategic research targets: 1. Understanding the mechanism of warming amplification in the Arctic 2. Understanding the Arctic system for global climate and future change 3. Evaluation of the effects of Arctic change on weather in Japan, marine ecosystems and fisheries 4. Prediction of sea Ice distribution and Arctic sea routes This project aims to realize the strategic research targets by executing following studies: -Improvement of coupled general circulation models based on validations of the Arctic climate reproducibility and on mechanism analyses of the Arctic climate change and variability -The role of Arctic cryosphere in the global change -Change in terrestrial ecosystem of pan-Arctic and its effect on climate -Studies on greenhouse gas cycles in the Arctic and their responses to climate change -Atmospheric studies on Arctic change and its global impacts -Ecosystem studies of the Arctic ocean declining Sea ice -Projection of Arctic Sea ice responding to availability of Arctic sea route (* ** ***) *Changes in the Arctic ocean and mechanisms on catastrophic reduction of Arctic sea ice cover **Coordinated observational and modeling studies on the basic structure and variability of the Arctic sea ice-ocean system ***Sea ice prediction and construction of ice navigation support system for the Arctic sea route. Although GRENE Arctic project aims to product scientific contribution in a concentrated program during 2011-2016, Japanese Arctic research community established Japan Consortium for Arctic Environmental Research (JCAR) in May

  10. Arctic adaptation and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The amplification of climatic warming in the Arctic and the sensitivity of physical, biological, and human systems to changes in climate make the Arctic particularly vulnerable to climate changes. Large areas of the Arctic permafrost and sea ice are expected to disappear under climate warming and these changes will have considerable impacts on the natural and built environment of the north. A review is presented of some recent studies on what these impacts could be for the permafrost and sea ice environment and to identify linkages with socioeconomic activities. Terrestrial adaptation to climate change will include increases in ground temperature; melting of permafrost with consequences such as frost heave, mudslides, and substantial settlement; rotting of peat contained in permafrost areas, with subsequent emission of CO2; increased risk of forest fire; and flooding of low-lying areas. With regard to the manmade environment, structures that will be affected include buildings, pipelines, highways, airports, mines, and railways. In marine areas, climate change will increase the ice-free period for marine transport operations and thus provide some benefit to the offshore petroleum industry. This benefit will be offset by increased wave height and period, and increased coastal erosion. The offshore industry needs to be particularly concerned with these impacts since the expected design life of industry facilities (30-60 y) is of the same order as the time frame for possible climatic changes. 18 refs., 5 figs

  11. Arctic sea ice and Eurasian climate: A review

    OpenAIRE

    Gao, Yongqi; Sun, Jianqi; Li, Fei; HE Shengping; Sandven, Stein; Yan, Qing; Zhang, Zhongshi; Lohmann, Katja; Keenlyside, Noel; Furevik, Tore; Suo, Lingling

    2014-01-01

    The Arctic plays a fundamental role in the climate system and has shown significant climate change in recent decades, including the Arctic warming and decline of Arctic sea-ice extent and thickness. In contrast to the Arctic warming and reduction of Arctic sea ice, Europe, East Asia and North America have experienced anomalously cold conditions, with record snowfall during recent years. In this paper, we review current understanding of the sea-ice impacts on the Eurasian climate. Paleo, obser...

  12. Arctic Hydrology and the role of feedbacks in the climate system (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hinzman, L. D.

    2009-12-01

    The effects of a warming climate on the terrestrial regions of the Arctic are already quite apparent and impacts to the hydrologic system are also quite evident. The broadest impacts to the terrestrial arctic regions will result through consequent effects of changing permafrost structure and extent. As the climate differentially warms in summer and winter, the permafrost will become warmer, the active layer (the layer of soil above the permafrost that annually experiences freeze and thaw) will become thicker, the lower boundary of permafrost will become shallower and permafrost extent will decrease in area. These simple structural changes will affect every aspect of the surface water and energy balances and local ecology. Surface moisture and surface temperature are the main driving variables in local terrestrial and atmospheric linkages. Surface temperature is the linchpin in energy fluxes since it links atmospheric thermal gradients, forcing convective heat transfer, with the subsurface thermal gradients, driving conductive heat transfer. Soil moisture exerts a strong influence upon energy fluxes through controls on evaporative heat flux, phase change in thawing of permafrost, and indirect effects on thermal conductivity. In order to understand and predict ecosystem responses to a changing climate and the resultant feedbacks, it is critical to quantify the dynamic interactions of soil moisture and temperature with changes in permafrost as a function of climatic processes, landscape type, and vegetation. In future climate scenarios, the Arctic is expected to be warmer, and experience greater precipitation. With the lengthening of the summer season, however, more of this precipitation will occur as rain. The periods of potential evaporation, and transpiration will also increase. Oddly enough, even now, the Arctic may be considered a desert. The vast wetlands that cover large portions of Alaska, Canada and Siberia exist because permafrost prevents soil moisture and

  13. Arctic Shipping Emissions in the Changing Climate

    OpenAIRE

    Vihanninjoki, Vesa

    2014-01-01

    Due to the Arctic climate change and the related diminishing of Arctic sea ice cover, the general conditions for Arctic shipping are changing. The retreat of Arctic sea ice opens up new routes for maritime transportation, both trans-Arctic passages and new alternatives within the Arctic region. Hence the amount of Arctic shipping is presumed to increase. Despite the observed development, the sailing conditions in the Arctic waters will remain challenging. Thus particular attention will be ...

  14. The Arctic Grand Challenge: Abrupt Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilkniss, P. E.

    2003-12-01

    Trouble in polar paradise (Science, 08/30/02), significant changes in the Arctic environment are scientifically documented (R.E. Moritz et al. ibid.). More trouble, lots more, "abrupt climate change," (R. B. Alley, et al. Science 03/28/03). R. Corell, Arctic Climate Impact Assessment team (ACIA), "If you want to see what will happen in the rest of the world 25 years from now just look what's happening in the Arctic," (Arctic Council meeting, Iceland, 08/03). What to do? Make abrupt Arctic climate change a grand challenge for the IPY-4 and beyond! Scientifically:Describe the "state" of the Arctic climate system as succinctly as possible and accept it as the point of departure.Develop a hypothesis and criteria what constitutes "abrupt climate change," in the Arctic that can be tested with observations. Observations: Bring to bear existing observations and coordinate new investments in observations through an IPY-4 scientific management committee. Make the new Barrow, Alaska, Global Climate Change Research Facility a major U.S. contribution and focal point for the IPY-4 in the U.S Arctic. Arctic populations, Native peoples: The people of the North are living already, daily, with wrenching change, encroaching on their habitats and cultures. For them "the earth is faster now," (I. Krupnik and D. Jolly, ARCUS, 2002). From a political, economic, social and entirely realistic perspective, an Arctic grand challenge without the total integration of the Native peoples in this effort cannot succeed. Therefore: Communications must be established, and the respective Native entities must be approached with the determination to create well founded, well functioning, enduring partnerships. In the U.S. Arctic, Barrow with its long history of involvement and active support of science and with the new global climate change research facility should be the focal point of choice Private industry: Resource extraction in the Arctic followed by oil and gas consumption, return the combustion

  15. Identifying uncertainties in Arctic climate change projections

    OpenAIRE

    Hodson, Daniel L. R.; Keeley, Sarah P. E.; West, Alex; Ridley, Jeff; Hawkins, Ed; Hewitt, Helene T.

    2013-01-01

    Wide ranging climate changes are expected in the Arctic by the end of the 21st century, but projections of the size of these changes vary widely across current global climate models. This variation represents a large source of uncertainty in our understanding of the evolution of Arctic climate. Here we systematically quantify and assess the model uncertainty in Arctic climate changes in two CO2 doubling experiments: a multimodel ensemble (CMIP3) and an ensemble constructed using a single mode...

  16. Building Materials in Arctic Climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Ole Mejlhede

    2005-01-01

    Building in the artic requires special attention on the appropriateness of building materials. The harsh climate makes execution difficult and sets unusual requirements for the pure material properties. In addition, there is a lack of choice of good, natural building materials in the arctic. This...... results in high transport costs. The building materials situation in Greenland may potentially be improved by intensifying the reuse of building materials or by promoting the local production of building materials....

  17. The Arctic Voice at the UN Climate Negotiations: Interplay Between Arctic & Climate Governance

    OpenAIRE

    Duyck, Sébastien, 1983-

    2015-01-01

    During the past decade, the Arctic has progressively gained the status of a “global barometer” of the implications of climate change. As governments finalize in 2015 the negotiations towards a new climate change agreement and as the priorities of the Arctic Council are shifting towards a stronger focus on climate change, the current year offers a timely opportunity to review the interplay between Arctic policies and the international climate change regime. Indeed, several of the Arctic st...

  18. Arctic and boreal ecosystems of western North America as components of the climate system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chapin, F. S., III; McGuire, A.D.; Randerson, J.; Pielke, R., Sr.; Baldocchi, D.; Hobbie, S.E.; Roulet, Nigel; Eugster, W.; Kasischke, E.; Rastetter, E.B.; Zimov, S.A.; Running, S.W.

    2000-01-01

    Synthesis of results from several Arctic and boreal research programmes provides evidence for the strong role of high-latitude ecosystems in the climate system. Average surface air temperature has increased 0.3??C per decade during the twentieth century in the western North American Arctic and boreal forest zones. Precipitation has also increased, but changes in soil moisture are uncertain. Disturbance rates have increased in the boreal forest; for example, there has been a doubling of the area burned in North America in the past 20 years. The disturbance regime in tundra may not have changed. Tundra has a 3-6-fold higher winter albedo than boreal forest, but summer albedo and energy partitioning differ more strongly among ecosystems within either tundra or boreal forest than between these two biomes. This indicates a need to improve our understanding of vegetation dynamics within, as well as between, biomes. If regional surface warming were to continue, changes in albedo and energy absorption would likely act as a positive feedback to regional warming due to earlier melting of snow and, over the long term, the northward movement of treeline. Surface drying and a change in dominance from mosses to vascular plants would also enhance sensible heat flux and regional warming in tundra. In the boreal forest of western North America, deciduous forests have twice the albedo of conifer forests in both winter and summer, 50-80% higher evapotranspiration, and therefore only 30-50% of the sensible heat flux of conifers in summer. Therefore, a warming-induced increase in fire frequency that increased the proportion of deciduous forests in the landscape, would act as a negative feedback to regional warming. Changes in thermokarst and the aerial extent of wetlands, lakes, and ponds would alter high-latitude methane flux. There is currently a wide discrepancy among estimates of the size and direction of CO2 flux between high-latitude ecosystems and the atmosphere. These

  19. The influence of human activity in the Arctic on climate and climate impacts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Huntington, H.P. [23834 The Clearing Dr., Eagle River, AK 99577 (United States); Boyle, M. [Institute for Resources, Environment and Sustainability, University of British Columbia, 2202 Main Mall, Vancouver, BC, V6S 1K4 (Canada); Flowers, G.E. [Department of Earth Sciences, Simon Fraser University, 8888 University Drive, Burnaby, BC, V5A 1S6 (Canada); Weatherly, J.W. [Snow and Ice Division, Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory, 72 Lyme Road, Hanover, NH 03755 (United States); Hamilton, L.C. [Department of Sociology, University of New Hampshire, 20 College Road, Durham, NH 03824 (United States); Hinzman, L. [Water and Environment Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks, P.O. Box 755860, Fairbanks, AK 99775 (United States); Gerlach, C. [Department of Anthropology, University of Alaska Fairbanks, P.O. Box 757720, Fairbanks, AK 99775 (United States); Zulueta, R. [Department of Biology, Global Change Research Group, San Diego State University, 5500 Campanile Drive, PS-240, San Diego, CA 92182 (United States); Nicolson, C. [Department of Natural Resources Conservation, University of Massachusetts, 160 Holdsworth Way, Amherst, MA , 01003 (United States); Overpeck, J. [Institute for the Study of Planet Earth, University of Arizona, 715 North Park Avenue, 2nd Floor, Tucson, AZ, 85721 (United States)

    2007-05-15

    Human activities in the Arctic are often mentioned as recipients of climate-change impacts. In this paper we consider the more complicated but more likely possibility that human activities themselves can interact with climate or environmental change in ways that either mitigate or exacerbate the human impacts. Although human activities in the Arctic are generally assumed to be modest, our analysis suggests that those activities may have larger influences on the arctic system than previously thought. Moreover, human influences could increase substantially in the near future. First, we illustrate how past human activities in the Arctic have combined with climatic variations to alter biophysical systems upon which fisheries and livestock depend. Second, we describe how current and future human activities could precipitate or affect the timing of major transitions in the arctic system. Past and future analyses both point to ways in which human activities in the Arctic can substantially influence the trajectory of arctic system change.

  20. A Synthesis of Arctic Weather and Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bromwich, D. H.; Hines, K. M.

    2008-12-01

    In the polar regions, its is difficult to place current weather and climate trends in a long-term climatological perspective, primarily because the meteorological records there are limited in time and space in comparison with other regions of the globe. The low spatial density of polar meteorological data makes it challenging to attribute changes to local effects or to hemispheric teleconnections. Reanalyses, which assimilate all available observations into physically-consistent, regularly-spaced and comprehensive datasets, can be especially helpful in these latitudes. The timeliness of such efforts is especially pronounced given the recently-observed dramatic changes in Arctic sea ice, land ice, and permafrost regions, whose causes are being debated. A new physically-consistent synthesis of Arctic observations will be achieved through the high-resolution reanalysis of the northern high latitude region, spanning poleward from the headwaters of the northward flowing rivers. The ASR is a collaboration of the Ohio State University, the National Center Atmospheric Research, the University of Colorado, the University of Illinois, and the University of Alaska-Fairbanks. The production phase of the initial ASR has been funded by the National Science Foundation as an International Polar Year (IPY 2007-2009) project covering 2000-2010. The ASR will provide a high resolution description in space (15 km) and time (1-3 h) of the coupled atmosphere-sea ice-land surface system of the Arctic. Ingested historical data streams from the surface and space, along with measurements of the physical components of the Arctic Observing Network being developed as part of IPY will be assimilated by the ASR. Gridded output fields from the ASR will serve a variety of uses such drivers for coupled ice-ocean, land surface and other models, and will offer a focal point for coordinated model inter-comparison efforts. The ASR will permit detailed reconstructions of the Arctic system's variability

  1. The Arctic CH4 sink and its implications for the permafrost carbon feedbacks to the global climate system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Juncher Jørgensen, Christian; Christiansen, Jesper; Mariager, Tue; Hugelius, Gustaf

    2016-04-01

    Using atmospheric methane (CH4), certain soil microbes are able to sustain their metabolism, and in turn remove this powerful greenhouse gas from the atmosphere. While the process of CH4 oxidation is a common feature in most natural and unmanaged ecosystems in temperate and boreal ecosystems, the interactions between soil physical properties and abiotic process drivers, net landscape exchange and spatial patterns across Arctic drylands remains highly uncertain. Recent works show consistent CH4 comsumption in upland dry tundra soils in Arctic and High Arctic environments (Christiansen et al., 2014, Biogeochemistry 122; Jørgensen et al., 2015, Nature Geoscience 8; Lau et al., 2015, The ISME Journal 9). In these dominantly dry or barren soil ecosystems, CH4 consumption has been observed to significantly exceed the amounts of CH4 emitted from adjacent wetlands. These observations point to a potentially important but largely overlooked component of the global soil-climate system interaction and a counterperspective to the conceptual understanding of the Arctic being a only a source of CH4. However, due to our limited knowledge of spatiotemporal occurrence of CH4 consumption across a wider range of the Arctic landscape we are left with substantial uncertainites and an overall unconstrained range estimate of this terrestrial CH4 sink and its potential effects on permafrost carbon feedback to the atmospheric CH4 concentration. To address this important knowledge gap and identify the most relevant spatial scaling parameters, we studied in situ CH4 net exchange across a large landscape transect on West Greenland. The transect representated soils formed from the dominant geological parent materials of dry upland tundra soils found in the ice-free land areas of Western Greenland, i.e. 1) granitic/gneissic parent material, 2) basaltic parent material and 3) sedimentary deposits. Results show that the dynamic variations in soil physical properties and soil hydrology exerts an

  2. Arctic Climate Forcing Observations to Improve Earth System Models: Measurements at High Frequency, Fine Spatial Resolution, and Climatically Relevant Spatial Scales with the use of the Recently Deployed NGEE-Arctic Tram

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curtis, J. B.; Serbin, S.; Dafflon, B.; Raz Yaseef, N.; Torn, M. S.; Cook, P. J.; Lewin, K. F.; Wullschleger, S. D.

    2014-12-01

    In order to improve the representation of the land surface and subsurface properties and their associated feedbacks with climate forcings, climate change, and drivers in Earth System Models (ESMs), detailed observations need to be made at climatically relevant spatial and temporal scales. Pan-Arctic spatial heterogeneity and temporal variation present major challenges to the current generation of ESMs. To enable highly spatially resolved and high temporal frequency measurements for the independent validation of modeled energy and greenhouse gas surface fluxes at core to intermediate scales, we have developed, tested, and deployed an automated observational platform, the Next Generation Ecosystem Experiment (NGEE)-Arctic Tram. The NGEE-Arctic Tram, installed on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) near Barrow, AK in mid May 2014, consists of 65 meters of elevated track and a fully automated cart carrying a suite of radiation and remote sensing instrumentation. The tram transect is located within the NGEE eddy covariance tower footprint to help better understand the relative contribution of different landforms (e.g. low center vs high center polygonal tundra and associated vegetation) to the overall energy budget of the footprint. Electrical resistivity tomography (ERT), soil moisture, and soil temperature sensors are acquired autonomously and co-located with the tram to link subsurface properties with surface observations. To complement the high frequency and fine spatial resolution of the tram, during the summer field seasons of 2013 and 2014 a portable version of the NGEE-Arctic Tram (also know as the portable energy pole or PEP); was used to characterize surface albedo, NDVI, surface temperature, and photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) across two ~500 m BEO transects co-located with subsurface ERT and ground penetrating radar (GPR) measurements. In addition, a ~ 3 Km transect across three drained thaw-lake basins (DTLB) of different climate

  3. Impacts of a Warming Arctic. Arctic Climate Impact Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Arctic is warming much more rapidly than previously known, at nearly twice the rate as the rest of the globe, and increasing greenhouse gases from human activities are projected to make it warmer still, according to an unprecedented four-year scientific study of the region conducted by an international team of 300 scientists. At least half the summer sea ice in the Arctic is projected to melt by the end of this century, along with a significant portion of the Greenland Ice Sheet, as the region is projected to warm an additional 4-7C by the year 2100. These changes will have major global impacts, such as contributing to global sea-level rise and intensifying global warming, according to the final report of the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA). The assessment was commissioned by the Arctic Council (a ministerial intergovernmental forum comprised of the eight Arctic countries and six Indigenous Peoples organizations) and the International Arctic Science Committee (an international scientific organization appointed by 18 national academies of science). The assessment's projections are based on a moderate estimate of future emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, and incorporate results from five major global climate models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

  4. Health in the Arctic and climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Sloth Pedersen, Henning

    2007-01-01

    The Arctic environment is like a magnifying glass. Many of the hazards stemming from industrial activity in the South tend to concentrate in the North. This is true for DDT, PCB, heavy metals and many other substances that may endanger human health. Climate change is yet another example of how the negative impact of industrial activity may be magnified in the Arctic region.

  5. The Arctic CH4 sink and its implications for the permafrost carbon feedbacks to the global climate system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Juncher Jørgensen, Christian; Christiansen, Jesper; Mariager, Tue; Hugelius, Gustaf

    2016-04-01

    Using atmospheric methane (CH4), certain soil microbes are able to sustain their metabolism, and in turn remove this powerful greenhouse gas from the atmosphere. While the process of CH4 oxidation is a common feature in most natural and unmanaged ecosystems in temperate and boreal ecosystems, the interactions between soil physical properties and abiotic process drivers, net landscape exchange and spatial patterns across Arctic drylands remains highly uncertain. Recent works show consistent CH4 comsumption in upland dry tundra soils in Arctic and High Arctic environments (Christiansen et al., 2014, Biogeochemistry 122; Jørgensen et al., 2015, Nature Geoscience 8; Lau et al., 2015, The ISME Journal 9). In these dominantly dry or barren soil ecosystems, CH4 consumption has been observed to significantly exceed the amounts of CH4 emitted from adjacent wetlands. These observations point to a potentially important but largely overlooked component of the global soil-climate system interaction and a counterperspective to the conceptual understanding of the Arctic being a only a source of CH4. However, due to our limited knowledge of spatiotemporal occurrence of CH4 consumption across a wider range of the Arctic landscape we are left with substantial uncertainites and an overall unconstrained range estimate of this terrestrial CH4 sink and its potential effects on permafrost carbon feedback to the atmospheric CH4 concentration. To address this important knowledge gap and identify the most relevant spatial scaling parameters, we studied in situ CH4 net exchange across a large landscape transect on West Greenland. The transect representated soils formed from the dominant geological parent materials of dry upland tundra soils found in the ice-free land areas of Western Greenland, i.e. 1) granitic/gneissic parent material, 2) basaltic parent material and 3) sedimentary deposits. Results show that the dynamic variations in soil physical properties and soil hydrology exerts an

  6. Warm Arctic—cold continents: climate impacts of the newly open Arctic Sea

    OpenAIRE

    James E. Overland; Kevin R. Wood; Wang, Muyin

    2011-01-01

    Recent Arctic changes are likely due to coupled Arctic amplification mechanisms with increased linkage between Arctic climate and sub-Arctic weather. Historically, sea ice grew rapidly in autumn, a strong negative radiative feedback. But increased sea-ice mobility, loss of multi-year sea ice, enhanced heat storage in newly sea ice-free ocean areas, and modified wind fields form connected positive feedback processes. One-way shifts in the Arctic system are sensitive to the combination of episo...

  7. New insights on Arctic Quaternary climate variability from palaeo-records and numerical modelling

    OpenAIRE

    Jakobsson, Martin; Long, A; Ingólfsson, Ó.; Kjaer, K. H.; Spielhagen, R. F.

    2010-01-01

    Terrestrial and marine geological archives in the Arctic contain information on environmental change through Quaternary interglacial–glacial cycles. The Arctic Palaeoclimate and its Extremes (APEX) scientific network aims to better understand the magnitude and frequency of past Arctic climate variability, with focus on the “extreme” versus the “normal” conditions of the climate system. One important motivation for studying the amplitude of past natural environmental changes in the Arctic is t...

  8. Development of wind power production in arctic climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Peltola, E.; Kaas, J.; Aarnio, E. [Kemijoki Oy (Finland)

    1998-10-01

    The project Development of wind power production in arctic climate is a direct continuation of Arctic wind energy research project, which started in 1989. The main topics in 1996-97 have been production development and commercialising the blade heating systems, development of operation and maintenance practices of arctic wind power plants, preparations for new wind farms and various network connection and energy system studies. Practical operations have taken place in Pyhaetunturi test power plant and in Paljasselkae and Lammashovi power plants, which are in commercial operation

  9. Arctic ecosystem responses to a warming climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mortensen, Lars O.

    is frozen solid for the main part of the year. However, in recent decades, arctic temperatures have in-creased between two and three times that of the global averages, which have had a substantial impact on the physical environment of the arctic ecosystem, such as deglaciation of the Greenland inland ice......’ of ecosystem re-sponses to the future global climate change....

  10. Pan-Arctic observations in GRENE Arctic Climate Change Research Project and its successor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamanouchi, Takashi

    2016-04-01

    We started a Japanese initiative - "Arctic Climate Change Research Project" - within the framework of the Green Network of Excellence (GRENE) Program, funded by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, Japan (MEXT), in 2011. This Project targeted understanding and forecasting "Rapid Change of the Arctic Climate System and its Global Influences." Four strategic research targets are set by the Ministry: 1. Understanding the mechanism of warming amplification in the Arctic; 2. Understanding the Arctic climate system for global climate and future change; 3. Evaluation of the impacts of Arctic change on the weather and climate in Japan, marine ecosystems and fisheries; 4. Projection of sea ice distribution and Arctic sea routes. Through a network of universities and institutions in Japan, this 5-year Project involves more than 300 scientists from 39 institutions and universities. The National Institute of Polar Research (NIPR) works as the core institute and The Japan Agency for Marine- Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC) joins as the supporting institute. There are 7 bottom up research themes approved: the atmosphere, terrestrial ecosystems, cryosphere, greenhouse gases, marine ecology and fisheries, sea ice and Arctic sea routes and climate modeling, among 22 applications. The Project will realize multi-disciplinal study of the Arctic region and connect to the projection of future Arctic and global climatic change by modeling. The project has been running since the beginning of 2011 and in those 5 years pan-Arctic observations have been carried out in many locations, such as Svalbard, Russian Siberia, Alaska, Canada, Greenland and the Arctic Ocean. In particular, 95 GHz cloud profiling radar in high precision was established at Ny-Ålesund, Svalbard, and intensive atmospheric observations were carried out in 2014 and 2015. In addition, the Arctic Ocean cruises by R/V "Mirai" (belonging to JAMSTEC) and other icebreakers belonging to other

  11. Climate and man in the Arctic

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The ever-changing climate shapes the Arctic landscape, influences life conditions for plants and animals and alters the availability of the living resources that play such and important part in the economy of Arctic peoples. It is essential that we try to understand the nature of climatic change and its effects on man and his environment. Only this way can we hope to be able to predict future changes that may have great consequences for the well-being of northern residents. In recent years many research projects have been addressing the subject and important advances have been made. At the same time it has become increasingly evident that the complexity of the whole issue calls for an integration of scientific approaches and for interdisciplinary collaboration. The seminar 'Climate and Man in the Arctic' provided an opportunity both to highlight important areas of climate related research and to discuss more general aspects of arctic research. Eight papers presented at the seminar are published in this volume. (au) 22 refs

  12. On the potential for climate change impacts on marine anthropogenic radioactivity in the Arctic regions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Current predictions as to the impacts of climate change in general and Arctic climate change in particular are such that a wide range of processes relevant to Arctic contaminants are potentially vulnerable. Of these, radioactive contaminants and the processes that govern their transport and fate may be particularly susceptible to the effects of a changing Arctic climate. This paper explores the potential changes in the physical system of the Arctic climate system as they are deducible from present day knowledge and model projections. As a contribution to a better preparedness regarding Arctic marine contamination with radioactivity we present and discuss how a changing marine physical environment may play a role in altering the current understanding pertaining to behavior of contaminant radionuclides in the marine environment of the Arctic region.

  13. Arctic sea ice balance and climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Proxy data and local historical records show that sea ice extent has undergone large secular variations over past millennia and centuries, for reasons that are only qualitatively understood. Since the onset of systematic observations in situ and satellites, the record shows a remarkable constancy of the annual cycle of the arctic sea ice cover. This cycle is described by a continuity equation that is used to discuss the mechanisms relating ice extent and thickness to climate, and to illustrate how ice formation, transport, and melting combine to produce the seasonal cycle of sea ice cover. The heat balances and stresses at the surface and bottom of the sea ice are external forcing functions with small-scale and large-scale feedbacks. Examples are the stable stratification of the ocean boundary layer caused by bottom melting and surface drainage which suppress the vertical ocean heat flux, and the arctic summer stratus which forms over ice-covered ocean regions and limits surface melting. Recent efforts to model the seasonal cycle of sea ice in the Arctic are discussed in light of the observational record. A promising new development is the incorporation of satellite data as explicit variables carried in dynamic-thermodynamic ice models. Of special interest in the context of climate is the fresh water budget of the Arctic Basin. Its largest components, the runoff generated by mid-latitude precipitation over the Eurasian continent, and the ice export driven by the wind field over the Arctic Basin, have no immediately apparent connection. Taking into account all other components of the fresh water balance, Aagaard and Carmack estimate that the contemporary influx and outflux of fresh water at the perimeter of the Arctic Basin are equal. The unraveling of the mechanisms responsible for this equality, and the consequence of a possible imbalance remain challenging questions

  14. Climate-derived tensions in Arctic security.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A.; Strickland, James Hassler

    2008-09-01

    Globally, there is no lack of security threats. Many of them demand priority engagement and there can never be adequate resources to address all threats. In this context, climate is just another aspect of global security and the Arctic just another region. In light of physical and budgetary constraints, new security needs must be integrated and prioritized with existing ones. This discussion approaches the security impacts of climate from that perspective, starting with the broad security picture and establishing how climate may affect it. This method provides a different view from one that starts with climate and projects it, in isolation, as the source of a hypothetical security burden. That said, the Arctic does appear to present high-priority security challenges. Uncertainty in the timing of an ice-free Arctic affects how quickly it will become a security priority. Uncertainty in the emergent extreme and variable weather conditions will determine the difficulty (cost) of maintaining adequate security (order) in the area. The resolution of sovereignty boundaries affects the ability to enforce security measures, and the U.S. will most probably need a military presence to back-up negotiated sovereignty agreements. Without additional global warming, technology already allows the Arctic to become a strategic link in the global supply chain, possibly with northern Russia as its main hub. Additionally, the multinational corporations reaping the economic bounty may affect security tensions more than nation-states themselves. Countries will depend ever more heavily on the global supply chains. China has particular needs to protect its trade flows. In matters of security, nation-state and multinational-corporate interests will become heavily intertwined.

  15. How is the Fram Strait Freshwater Outflow Responding to Changes in the Arctic Climate System?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dodd, Paul; Rabe, Benjamin; Granskog, Mats; Stedmon, Colin; Kristiansen, Svein; Hansen, Edmond

    2014-05-01

    The composition of the Fram Strait freshwater outflow is investigated by comparing 10 sections of concurrent salinity, δ18O, nitrate and phosphate measurements collected between 1997 and 2012. The largest inventories of net sea ice meltwater are found in 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012. The 2009-2012 sections are also the first to show positive fractions of sea ice meltwater at the surface near the core of the EGC. Sections from September 2009-2012 show an increased input of sea ice meltwater at the surface relative to older September sections. This suggests that more sea ice now melts back into the surface in late summer than previously. Comparison of April, July and September sections reveals seasonal variations in the inventory of positive sea ice meltwater, with maximum inventories in September sections. The time series of sections reveals a strong anti-correlation between meteoric water and net sea ice meltwater inventories, suggesting that meteoric water and brine may be delivered to Fram Strait together from a common source. We find that the freshwater outflow at Fram Strait exhibits a similar meteoric water to net sea ice meltwater ratio as the central Arctic Ocean and Siberian shelves, suggesting that much of the sea ice meltwater and meteoric water at Fram Strait may originate from these regions. However, we also find that the ratio of meteoric water to sea ice meltwater inventories at Fram Strait is decreasing with time, due to an increased surface input of sea ice meltwater in recent sections. From 2010 to 2013, automatic water samplers have provided high frequency year round tracer observations required to resolve seasonal and short-term variations in the freshwater composition at Fram Strait. Measurements from these instruments reveal significant short-term variations in the freshwater composition over the East Greenland Shelf.

  16. Arctic climate change in NORKLIMA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2010-07-01

    The NORKLIMA programme is the national Norwegian initiative on climate research established for the period 2004-2013. The programme seeks to generate key knowledge about climate trends, the impacts of climate change, and how Norway can adapt to these changes. The NORKLIMA programme also encompasses research on instruments and policies for reducing emissions. Large-scale Programmes As part of the effort to meet national research-policy priorities, the Research Council has established a special funding instrument called the Large-scale Programmes. This initiative is designed to build long-term knowledge in order to encourage innovation and enhance value creation as well as to help find solutions to important challenges facing society.(Author)

  17. The Arctic Ocean and climate: A Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aagaard, K.; Carmack, E. C.

    The most likely effects of the Arctic Ocean on global climate are through the surface heat balance and the thermohaline circulation. The former is intimately related to the stratification of the Arctic Ocean, while the latter may be significantly controlled by outflow from the Arctic Ocean into the major convective regions to the south. Evaluating these issues adequately requires detailed knowledge of the density structure and circulation of the Arctic Ocean and of their variability. New long time series of temperature and salinity (T/S) from the Canadian Basin show a grainy T/S structure, probably on a horizontal scale of a few tens of kilometers. The temperature field is particularly inhomogeneous, since for cold water it is not greatly constrained by buoyancy forces. The simultaneous velocity time series show that the grainy T/S structure results from a complex eddy field, often with vertically or horizontally paired counter-rotating eddies drifting with a slow larger-scale flow. The ocean is therefore not well mixed on these scales. Finally, we note that the ventilation of the interior Arctic Ocean from the adjacent shelves appears to be highly variable on an interannual basis, and indeed may not be robust on longer time scales. In particular we note the absence, or near-absence, of deep ventilation of the Canadian Basin during the last 500 years. Based on the 14C model of Macdonald et al. [1993], however, we hypothesize that these same waters were ventilated prior to that time and that the deep convective shutdown about 500 years ago coincided with the end of the whale-hunting Thule culture. We further suggest that the two events had a common cause, viz., the increase of sea ice over the continental shelves during summer.

  18. An energy efficient building for the Arctic climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vladyková, Petra

    The Arctic is climatically very different from a temperate climate. In the Arctic regions, the ambient temperature reaches extreme values and it has a direct large impact on the heat loss through the building envelope and it creates problems with the foundation due to the permafrost. The solar...... pattern is completely different due to the limited availability in winter, yet, in summer, the sun is above horizon for 24 hours. Furthermore, the sunrays reach the vertical opaque elements at shallow angles. The great winds and storms have large effects on the infiltration of buildings and they heavily...... the net positive solar gain, and a ventilation system with very efficient heat recovery. To design a passive house in the way it is defined by Wolfgang Feist, the founder of the Passivhaus Institute, its annual heat demand should not exceed 15 kWh/(m2∙a) and its total primary energy demand should...

  19. Climate Change: Science and Policy in the Arctic Climate Change: Science and Policy in the Arctic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bigras, S. C.

    2009-12-01

    It is an accepted fact that the Earth’s climate is warming. Recent research has demonstrated the direct links between the Arctic regions and the rest of the planet. We have become more aware that these regions are feeling the effects of global climate change more intensely than anywhere else on Earth -- and that they are fast becoming the new frontiers for resources and political disputes. This paper examines some of the potential climate change impacts in the Arctic and how the science of climate change can be used to develop policies that will help mitigate some of these impacts. Despite the growing body of research we do not yet completely understand the potential consequences of climate change in the Arctic. Climate models predict significant changes and impacts on the northern physical environment and renewable resources, and on the communities and societies that depend on them. Policies developed and implemented as a result of the research findings will be designed to help mitigate some of the more serious consequences. Given the importance of cost in making policy decisions, the financial implications of different scenarios will need to be considered. The Arctic Ocean Basin is a complex and diverse environment shared by five Arctic states. Cooperation among the states surrounding the Arctic Ocean is often difficult, as each country has its own political and social agenda. Northerners and indigenous peoples should be engaged and able to influence the direction of northern adaptation policies. Along with climate change, the Arctic environment and Arctic residents face many other challenges, among them safe resource development. Resource development in the Arctic has always been a controversial issue, seen by some as a solution to high unemployment and by others as an unacceptably disruptive and destructive force. Its inherent risks need to be considered: there are needs for adaptation, for management frameworks, for addressing cumulative effects, and for

  20. Climate Change, Globalization and Geopolitics in the New Maritime Arctic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brigham, L. W.

    2011-12-01

    Early in the 21st century a confluence of climate change, globalization and geopolitics is shaping the future of the maritime Arctic. This nexus is also fostering greater linkage of the Arctic to the rest of the planet. Arctic sea ice is undergoing a historic transformation of thinning, extent reduction in all seasons, and reduction in the area of multiyear ice in the central Arctic Ocean. Global Climate Model simulations of Arctic sea ice indicate multiyear ice could disappear by 2030 for a short period of time each summer. These physical changes invite greater marine access, longer seasons of navigation, and potential, summer trans-Arctic voyages. As a result, enhanced marine safety, environmental protection, and maritime security measures are under development. Coupled with climate change as a key driver of regional change is the current and future integration of the Arctic's natural wealth with global markets (oil, gas and hard minerals). Abundant freshwater in the Arctic could also be a future commodity of value. Recent events such as drilling for hydrocarbons off Greenland's west coast and the summer marine transport of natural resources from the Russian Arctic to China across the top of Eurasia are indicators of greater global economic ties to the Arctic. Plausible Arctic futures indicate continued integration with global issues and increased complexity of a range of regional economic, security and environmental challenges.

  1. Evidence and Implications of Recent Climate Change in Terrestrial Regions of the Arctic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hinzman, L. D.; Bettez, N.; Chapin, F. S.; Dyurgerov, M.; Fastie, C.; Griffith, D. B.; Hope, A.; Huntington, H. P.; Jensen, A.; Kane, D. L.; Kofinas, G.; Lynch, A.; Lloyd, A.; McGuire, A. D.; Nelson, F. E.; Osterkamp, T.; Oechel, W. C.; Racine, C.; Romanovsky, V. E.; Schimel, J.; Stow, D.; Sturm, M.; Tweedie, C. E.; Vourlitis, G.; Walker, M.; Webber, P. J.; Welker, J.; Winker, K.; Yoshikawa, K.

    2002-12-01

    Are changes occurring in the polar terrestrial regime? Is the distribution of permafrost and Arctic region freeze and thaw changing? Is the hydrology of Arctic terrestrial regions changing? Are significant changes occurring in the distribution and productivity of high-latitude vegetation? If one examines any individual scientific discipline, evidence of climate change in arctic regions offers only pieces of the puzzle. Here we present a broad array of evidence to provide a convincing case of change in the arctic climate and a system-wide response of terrestrial processes. The thermal regime of the Arctic holds unique characteristics and consequently will display marked changes in response to climate warming. In many cases, threshold changes will occur in physical systems proceeding from permanently frozen to periodically thawed. Dramatic changes also accompany biological systems adapting to an evolving environment. In the last 25 to 400 years a wide range of changes in the Arctic have been detected. In many cases, these changes started, or accelerated, in the mid-1970s. Some of the changes, like later freeze-up and earlier break-up of arctic rivers and lakes, mirror arctic-wide and even global increases in air temperature. Others document more subtle or complex responses of the arctic system as it adapts to current and longer-term trends in climate. Since the arctic system is particularly sensitive to changes in rain- and snowfall, timing of freeze-up and break-up, and the intensity of storm activity, it is likely that much of what has been documented to date, and will be observed in the future, arises from changes in these forcing fields. Unfortunately, compared with temperature, they are poorly known. Regardless of the driving forces, however, the combined observations and documentation offer diffuse but substantial evidence that the arctic system may be entering a state not seen before in recent history.

  2. The state of climate change adaptation in the Arctic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ford, James D.; McDowell, Graham; Jones, Julie

    2014-10-01

    The Arctic climate is rapidly changing, with wide ranging impacts on natural and social systems. A variety of adaptation policies, programs and practices have been adopted to this end, yet our understanding of if, how, and where adaptation is occurring is limited. In response, this paper develops a systematic approach to characterize the current state of adaptation in the Arctic. Using reported adaptations in the English language peer reviewed literature as our data source, we document 157 discrete adaptation initiatives between 2003 and 2013. Results indicate large variations in adaptation by region and sector, dominated by reporting from North America, particularly with regards to subsistence harvesting by Inuit communities. Few adaptations were documented in the European and Russian Arctic, or have a focus on the business and economy, or infrastructure sectors. Adaptations are being motivated primarily by the combination of climatic and non-climatic factors, have a strong emphasis on reducing current vulnerability involving incremental changes to existing risk management processes, and are primarily initiated and led at the individual/community level. There is limited evidence of trans-boundary adaptations or initiatives considering potential cross-scale/sector impacts.

  3. The state of climate change adaptation in the Arctic

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Arctic climate is rapidly changing, with wide ranging impacts on natural and social systems. A variety of adaptation policies, programs and practices have been adopted to this end, yet our understanding of if, how, and where adaptation is occurring is limited. In response, this paper develops a systematic approach to characterize the current state of adaptation in the Arctic. Using reported adaptations in the English language peer reviewed literature as our data source, we document 157 discrete adaptation initiatives between 2003 and 2013. Results indicate large variations in adaptation by region and sector, dominated by reporting from North America, particularly with regards to subsistence harvesting by Inuit communities. Few adaptations were documented in the European and Russian Arctic, or have a focus on the business and economy, or infrastructure sectors. Adaptations are being motivated primarily by the combination of climatic and non-climatic factors, have a strong emphasis on reducing current vulnerability involving incremental changes to existing risk management processes, and are primarily initiated and led at the individual/community level. There is limited evidence of trans-boundary adaptations or initiatives considering potential cross-scale/sector impacts. (letter)

  4. Arctic Sea Ice Changes, Interactions, and Feedbacks on the Arctic Climate during the Satellite Era

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, X.; Key, J. R.; Liu, Y.

    2011-12-01

    Of all the components of the Earth climate system, the cryosphere is arguably the least understood even though it is a very important indicator and an effective modulator of regional and global climate change. Changes in sea ice will significantly affect exchanges of momentum, heat, and mass between the ocean and the atmosphere, and have profound socio-economic impacts on transportation, fisheries, hunting, polar animal habitat and more. In the last three decades, the Arctic underwent significant changes in sea ice as part of the accelerated global climate change. With the recently developed One-dimensional Thermodynamic Ice Model (OTIM), sea and lake ice thickness and trends can be reasonably estimated. The OTIM has been extensively validated against submarine and moored upward-looking sonar measurements, meteorological station measurements, and comprehensive numerical model simulations. The Extended AVHRR Polar Pathfinder (APP-x) dataset has 25 climate parameters covering surface, cloud, and sea ice properties as well as surface and top-of-atmosphere radiative fluxes for the period 1982 - 2004 over the Arctic and Antarctic at 25 km resolution. The OTIM has been used with APP-x dataset for Arctic sea ice thickness and volume estimation. Statistical analysis of spatial and temporal distributions and trends in sea ice extent, thickness, and volume over the satellite period has been performed, along with the temporal analysis of first year and multiple year sea ice extent changes. Preliminary results show clear evidence that Arctic sea ice has been experiencing significant changes over the last two decades of the 20th century. The Arctic sea ice has been shrinking unexpectedly fast with the declines in sea ice extent, thickness, and volume, most apparent in the fall season. Moreover, satellites provide an unprecedented opportunity to observe Arctic sea ice and its changes with high spatial and temporal coverage that is making it an ideal data source for mitigating

  5. Warm Arctic—cold continents: climate impacts of the newly open Arctic Sea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James E. Overland

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Recent Arctic changes are likely due to coupled Arctic amplification mechanisms with increased linkage between Arctic climate and sub-Arctic weather. Historically, sea ice grew rapidly in autumn, a strong negative radiative feedback. But increased sea-ice mobility, loss of multi-year sea ice, enhanced heat storage in newly sea ice-free ocean areas, and modified wind fields form connected positive feedback processes. One-way shifts in the Arctic system are sensitive to the combination of episodic intrinsic atmospheric and ocean variability and persistent increasing greenhouse gases. Winter 2009/10 and December 2010 showed a unique connectivity between the Arctic and more southern weather patterns when the typical polar vortex was replaced by high geopotential heights over the central Arctic and low heights over mid-latitudes that resulted in record snow and low temperatures, a warm Arctic—cold continents pattern. The negative value of the winter (DJF 2009/10 North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO index associated with enhanced meridional winds was the lowest observed value since the beginning of the record in 1865. Wind patterns in December 2007 and 2008 also show an impact of warmer Arctic temperatures. A tendency for higher geopotential heights over the Arctic and enhanced meridional winds are physically consistent with continued loss of sea ice over the next 40 years. A major challenge is to understand the interaction of Arctic changes with climate patterns such as the NAO, Pacific North American and El Niño–Southern Oscillation.

  6. Arctic Ocean freshwater as a trigger for abrupt climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bradley, Raymond; Condron, Alan; Coletti, Anthony

    2016-04-01

    The cause of the Younger Dryas cooling remains unresolved despite decades of debate. Current arguments focus on either freshwater from Glacial Lake Agassiz drainage through the St Lawrence or the MacKenzie river systems. High resolution ocean modeling suggests that freshwater delivered to the North Atlantic from the Arctic Ocean through Fram Strait would have had more of an impact on Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) than freshwater from the St Lawrence. This has been interpreted as an argument for a MacKenzie River /Lake Agassiz freshwater source. However, it is important to note that although the modeling identifies Fram Strait as the optimum location for delivery of freshwater to disrupt the AMOC, this does not mean the freshwater source came from Lake Agassiz. Another potential source of freshwater is the Arctic Ocean ice cover itself. During the LGM, ice cover was extremely thick - many tens of meters in the Canada Basin (at least), resulting in a hiatus in sediment deposition there. Extreme ice thickness was related to a stagnant circulation, very low temperatures and continuous accumulation of snow on top of a base of sea-ice. This resulted in a large accumulation of freshwater in the Arctic Basin. As sea-level rose and a more modern circulation regime became established in the Arctic, this freshwater was released from the Arctic Ocean through Fram Strait, leading to extensive sea-ice formation in the North Atlantic (Greenland Sea) and a major reduction in the AMOC. Here we present new model results and a review of the paleoceanographic evidence to support this hypothesis. The bottom line is that the Arctic Ocean was likely a major player in causing abrupt climate change in the past, via its influence on the AMOC. Although we focus here on the Younger Dryas, the Arctic Ocean has been repeatedly isolated from the world ocean during glacial periods of the past. When these periods of isolation ended, it is probable that there were significant

  7. Climate change and the ecology and evolution of Arctic vertebrates

    OpenAIRE

    Gilg, Olivier; Kit M Kovacs; Aars, J; Fort, Jerome; Gauthier, Gilles; Gremillet, D.; Ims, Rolf A.; Meltofte, Hans; Moreau, J; Post, Eric; Schmidt, Niels Martin; Yannic, G; Bollache, L.

    2012-01-01

    Climate change is taking place more rapidly and severely in the Arctic than anywhere on the globe, exposing Arctic vertebrates to a host of impacts. Changes in the cryosphere dominate the physical changes that already affect these animals, but increasing air temperatures, changes in precipitation, and ocean acidification will also affect Arctic ecosystems in the future. Adaptation via natural selection is problematic in such a rapidly changing environment. Adjustment via phenotypic plasticity...

  8. Climate change and zoonotic infections in the Russian Arctic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Boris Revich

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Climate change in the Russian Arctic is more pronounced than in any other part of the country. Between 1955 and 2000, the annual average air temperature in the Russian North increased by 1.2°C. During the same period, the mean temperature of upper layer of permafrost increased by 3°C. Climate change in Russian Arctic increases the risks of the emergence of zoonotic infectious diseases. This review presents data on morbidity rates among people, domestic animals and wildlife in the Russian Arctic, focusing on the potential climate related emergence of such diseases as tick-borne encephalitis, tularemia, brucellosis, leptospirosis, rabies, and anthrax.

  9. Arctic indigenous peoples as representations and representatives of climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martello, Marybeth Long

    2008-06-01

    Recent scientific findings, as presented in the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA), indicate that climate change in the Arctic is happening now, at a faster rate than elsewhere in the world, and with major implications for peoples of the Arctic (especially indigenous peoples) and the rest of the planet. This paper examines scientific and political representations of Arctic indigenous peoples that have been central to the production and articulation of these claims. ACIA employs novel forms and strategies of representation that reflect changing conceptual models and practices of global change science and depict indigenous peoples as expert, exotic, and at-risk. These portrayals emerge alongside the growing political activism of Arctic indigenous peoples who present themselves as representatives or embodiments of climate change itself as they advocate for climate change mitigation policies. These mutually constitutive forms of representation suggest that scientific ways of seeing the global environment shape and are shaped by the public image and voice of global citizens. Likewise, the authority, credibility, and visibility of Arctic indigenous activists derive, in part, from their status as at-risk experts, a status buttressed by new scientific frameworks and methods that recognize and rely on the local experiences and knowledges of indigenous peoples. Analyses of these relationships linking scientific and political representations of Arctic climate change build upon science and technology studies (STS) scholarship on visualization, challenge conventional notions of globalization, and raise questions about power and accountability in global climate change research. PMID:19069077

  10. Arctic climate change: observed and modelled temperature and sea-ice variability

    OpenAIRE

    Johannessen, Ola M.; BENGTSSON, LENNART; MILES, MARTIN W.; Kuzmina, Svetlana I.; Semenov, Vladimir A.; Alekseev, Genrikh V.; NAGURNYI, ANDREI P.; Zakharov, Victor F.; Bobylev, Leonid P.; Pettersson, Lasse H.; HASSELMANN, KLAUS; Cattle, Howard P.

    2004-01-01

    Changes apparent in the arctic climate system in recent years require evaluation in a century-scale perspective in order to assess the Arctic's response to increasing anthropogenic greenhouse-gas forcing. Here, a new set of century- and multidecadal-scale observational data of surface air temperature (SAT) and sea ice is used in combination with ECHAM4 and HadCM3 coupled atmosphere-ice-ocean global model simulations in order to better determine and understand arctic climate variability. We sh...

  11. The Arctic Climate Modeling Program: Professional Development for Rural Teachers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertram, Kathryn Berry

    2010-01-01

    The Arctic Climate Modeling Program (ACMP) offered yearlong science, technology, engineering, and math (STEM) professional development to teachers in rural Alaska. Teacher training focused on introducing youth to workforce technologies used in Arctic research. Due to challenges in making professional development accessible to rural teachers, ACMP…

  12. Arctic climate change with a 2C global warming. Timing, climate patterns and vegetation change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The signatories to United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change are charged with stabilizing the concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere at a level that prevents dangerous interference with the climate system. A number of nations, organizations and scientists have suggested that global mean temperature should not rise over 2C above preindustrial levels. However, even a relatively moderate target of 2C has serious implications for the Arctic, where temperatures are predicted to increase at least 1.5 to 2 times as fast as global temperatures. High latitude vegetation plays a significant role in the lives of humans and animals, and in the global energy balance and carbon budget. These ecosystems are expected to be among the most strongly impacted by climate change over the next century. To investigate the potential impact of stabilization of global temperature at 2C, we performed a study using data from six Global Climate Models (GCMs) forced by four greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, the BIOME4 biogeochemistry-biogeography model, and remote sensing data. GCM data were used to predict the timing and patterns of Arctic climate change under a global mean warming of 2C. A unified circumpolar classification recognizing five types of tundra and six forest biomes was used to develop a map of observed Arctic vegetation. BIOME4 was used to simulate the vegetation distributions over the Arctic at the present and for a range of 2C global warming scenarios. The GCMs simulations indicate that the earth will have warmed by 2C relative to preindustrial temperatures by between 2026 and 2060, by which stage the area-mean annual temperature over the Arctic (60-90N) will have increased by between 3.2 and 6.6C. Forest extent is predicted by BIOME4 to increase in the Arctic on the order of 3 x 106 km2 or 55% with a corresponding 42% reduction in tundra area. Tundra types generally also shift north with the largest reductions in the prostrate dwarf-shrub tundra

  13. Status of Wind-Diesel Applications in Arctic Climates: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baring-Gould, I.; Corbus, D.

    2007-12-01

    The rising cost of diesel fuel and the environmental regulation for its transportation, use, and storage, combined with the clear impacts of increased arctic temperatures, is driving remote communities to examine alternative methods of providing power. Over the past few years, wind energy has been increasingly used to reduce diesel fuel consumption, providing economic, environmental, and security benefits to the energy supply of communities from Alaska to Antarctica. This summary paper describes the current state of wind-diesel systems, reviews the operation of wind-diesel plants in cold climates, discusses current research activities pertaining to these systems, and addresses their technical and commercial challenges. System architectures, dispatch strategies, and operating experience from a variety of wind-diesel systems in Alaska will be reviewed. Specific focus will also be given to the control of power systems with large amounts of wind generation and the complexities of replacing diesel engine waste heat with excess wind energy, a key factor in assessing power plants for retrofit. A brief overview of steps for assessing the viability of retrofitting diesel power systems with wind technologies will also be provided. Because of the large number of isolated diesel minigrids, the market for adding wind to these systems is substantial, specifically in arctic climates and on islands that rely on diesel-only power generation.

  14. Long-term trends of the Polar and Arctic cells influencing the Arctic climate since 1989

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qian, Weihong; Wu, Kaijun; Leung, Jeremy Cheuk-Hin; Shi, Jian

    2016-03-01

    The strengthening and broadening trends of the Hadley cell have been revealed, while the existence of the Arctic cell has also been confirmed in previous studies. This study extends previous strengthening trend analyses of the Hadley cell to the Polar and Arctic cells in the Northern Hemisphere and explores their climate influences. Results show that the Polar cell experienced an abrupt change from a slow to a rapid strengthening trend in 1989, while the Arctic cell showed an insignificant strengthening trend and a significant weakening trend successively. The strengthening subsidence flow associated with the Polar and Arctic cells can partly explain the warming surface air temperature and declining sea ice concentration through the increasing tropospheric height and temperature trends. These results provide new insights for understanding the interdecadal relationship between atmospheric circulation and climate change in the Arctic region.

  15. Evidence and implications of recent climate change in Northern Alaska and other Arctic regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hinzman, L.D.; Bettez, N.D.; Bolton, W.R.; Chapin, F.S.; Dyurgerov, M.B.; Fastie, C.L.; Griffith, B.; Hollister, R.D.; Hope, A.; Huntington, H.P.; Jensen, A.M.; Jia, G.J.; Jorgenson, T.; Kane, D.L.; Klein, D.R.; Kofinas, G.; Lynch, A.H.; Lloyd, A.H.; McGuire, A.D.; Nelson, F.E.; Oechel, W.C.; Osterkamp, T.E.; Racine, C.H.; Romanovsky, V.E.; Stone, R.S.; Stow, D.A.; Sturm, M.; Tweedie, C.E.; Vourlitis, G.L.; Walker, M.D.; Walker, D. A.; Webber, P. J.; Welker, J.M.; Winker, K.S.; Yoshikawa, K.

    2005-01-01

    The Arctic climate is changing. Permafrost is warming, hydrological processes are changing and biological and social systems are also evolving in response to these changing conditions. Knowing how the structure and function of arctic terrestrial ecosystems are responding to recent and persistent climate change is paramount to understanding the future state of the Earth system and how humans will need to adapt. Our holistic review presents a broad array of evidence that illustrates convincingly; the Arctic is undergoing a system-wide response to an altered climatic state. New extreme and seasonal surface climatic conditions are being experienced, a range of biophysical states and processes influenced by the threshold and phase change of freezing point are being altered, hydrological and biogeochemical cycles are shifting, and more regularly human sub-systems are being affected. Importantly, the patterns, magnitude and mechanisms of change have sometimes been unpredictable or difficult to isolate due to compounding factors. In almost every discipline represented, we show how the biocomplexity of the Arctic system has highlighted and challenged a paucity of integrated scientific knowledge, the lack of sustained observational and experimental time series, and the technical and logistic constraints of researching the Arctic environment. This study supports ongoing efforts to strengthen the interdisciplinarity of arctic system science and improve the coupling of large scale experimental manipulation with sustained time series observations by incorporating and integrating novel technologies, remote sensing and modeling. ?? Springer 2005.

  16. Climate change and the ecology and evolution of Arctic vertebrates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gilg, Olivier; Kovacs, Kit M.; Aars, J.;

    2012-01-01

    Climate change is taking place more rapidly and severely in the Arctic than anywhere on the globe, exposing Arctic vertebrates to a host of impacts. Changes in the cryosphere dominate the physical changes that already affect these animals, but increasing air temperatures, changes in precipitation......, and ocean acidification will also affect Arctic ecosystems in the future. Adaptation via natural selection is problematic in such a rapidly changing environment. Adjustment via phenotypic plasticity is therefore likely to dominate Arctic vertebrate responses in the short term, and many such...... adjustments have already been documented. Changes in phenology and range will occur for most species but will only partly mitigate climate change impacts, which are particularly difficult to forecast due to the many interactions within and between trophic levels. Even though Arctic species richness is...

  17. Arctic climate change in 21st century CMIP5 simulations with EC-Earth

    OpenAIRE

    Koenigk, Torben; Brodeau, Laurent; Graversen, Rune Grand; Karlsson, Johannes; Svensson, Gunilla; Tjernström, Michael; Willén, Ulrika; Wyser, Klaus

    2012-01-01

    The Arctic climate change is analyzed in anensemble of future projection simulations performed withthe global coupled climate model EC-Earth2.3. EC-Earthsimulates the twentieth century Arctic climate relativelywell but the Arctic is about 2 K too cold and the sea icethickness and extent are overestimated. In the twenty-firstcentury, the results show a continuation and strengtheningof the Arctic trends observed over the recent decades,which leads to a dramatically changed Arctic climate,especi...

  18. Sensitivity of simulated regional Arctic climate to the choice of coupled model domain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dmitry V. Sein

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available The climate over the Arctic has undergone changes in recent decades. In order to evaluate the coupled response of the Arctic system to external and internal forcing, our study focuses on the estimation of regional climate variability and its dependence on large-scale atmospheric and regional ocean circulations. A global ocean–sea ice model with regionally high horizontal resolution is coupled to an atmospheric regional model and global terrestrial hydrology model. This way of coupling divides the global ocean model setup into two different domains: one coupled, where the ocean and the atmosphere are interacting, and one uncoupled, where the ocean model is driven by prescribed atmospheric forcing and runs in a so-called stand-alone mode. Therefore, selecting a specific area for the regional atmosphere implies that the ocean–atmosphere system can develop ‘freely’ in that area, whereas for the rest of the global ocean, the circulation is driven by prescribed atmospheric forcing without any feedbacks. Five different coupled setups are chosen for ensemble simulations. The choice of the coupled domains was done to estimate the influences of the Subtropical Atlantic, Eurasian and North Pacific regions on northern North Atlantic and Arctic climate. Our simulations show that the regional coupled ocean–atmosphere model is sensitive to the choice of the modelled area. The different model configurations reproduce differently both the mean climate and its variability. Only two out of five model setups were able to reproduce the Arctic climate as observed under recent climate conditions (ERA-40 Reanalysis. Evidence is found that the main source of uncertainty for Arctic climate variability and its predictability is the North Pacific. The prescription of North Pacific conditions in the regional model leads to significant correlation with observations, even if the whole North Atlantic is within the coupled model domain. However, the inclusion of the

  19. Energy use and indoor environment in new and existing dwellings in Arctic climates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kotol, Martin

    2014-01-01

    Buildings in Arctic climates require large amounts of heat to provide their occupants with a comfortable indoor environment. In recent years the intention to conserve energy has caused buildings in the Arctic (and worldwide) to become more insulated and airtight. The natural infiltration of...... investigated. For energy and indoor environmental reasons it is advisable that new airtight buildings be equipped with mechanical ventilation systems with heat recovery. Nevertheless, these systems when exposed to the Arctic winter climate face the risk of frost formation, which may put the ventilation system...... that the majority of the monitored bedrooms were insufficiently ventilated. The problems with poor ventilation were more severe in newer buildings (build after 1990) due to tighter envelopes and unchanged ventilation strategies. In conclusion, it is possible to provide dwellings in the Arctic with good...

  20. Cloud radiation interaction and the Earth's climate: Relevance to the climate of the Arctic

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The influence on the energy balance of the earth's climate system is reviewed and is based on recent satellite observations of the Earth's Radiation Budget (ERB) and other satellite-derived cloud information. The special difficulties that polar cloudiness poses in analysis of ERB data are discussed. The role of arctic cloudiness on the snow-ice albedo feedback is examined and the possible influence of this feedback to global cloudiness and thus to the radiation balance on the earth are explored

  1. Adaptive strategies and life history characteristics in a warming climate: salmon in the Arctic?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nielsen, Jennifer L.; Ruggerone, Gregory T.; Zimmerman, Christian E.

    2013-01-01

    In the warming Arctic, aquatic habitats are in flux and salmon are exploring their options. Adult Pacific salmon, including sockeye (Oncorhynchus nerka), coho (O. kisutch), Chinook (O. tshawytscha), pink (O. gorbuscha) and chum (O. keta) have been captured throughout the Arctic. Pink and chum salmon are the most common species found in the Arctic today. These species are less dependent on freshwater habitats as juveniles and grow quickly in marine habitats. Putative spawning populations are rare in the North American Arctic and limited to pink salmon in drainages north of Point Hope, Alaska, chum salmon spawning rivers draining to the northwestern Beaufort Sea, and small populations of chum and pink salmon in Canada’s Mackenzie River. Pacific salmon have colonized several large river basins draining to the Kara, Laptev and East Siberian seas in the Russian Arctic. These populations probably developed from hatchery supplementation efforts in the 1960’s. Hundreds of populations of Arctic Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) are found in Russia, Norway and Finland. Atlantic salmon have extended their range eastward as far as the Kara Sea in central Russian. A small native population of Atlantic salmon is found in Canada’s Ungava Bay. The northern tip of Quebec seems to be an Atlantic salmon migration barrier for other North American stocks. Compatibility between life history requirements and ecological conditions are prerequisite for salmon colonizing Arctic habitats. Broad-scale predictive models of climate change in the Arctic give little information about feedback processes contributing to local conditions, especially in freshwater systems. This paper reviews the recent history of salmon in the Arctic and explores various patterns of climate change that may influence range expansions and future sustainability of salmon in Arctic habitats. A summary of the research needs that will allow informed expectation of further Arctic colonization by salmon is given.

  2. The influence of Arctic haze and radiatively active trace gases on the arctic climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Increasing fossil fuel consumption and industrial activities have raised concerns of possible man-induced climate changes. The changes result mostly from increased radiatively active trace gases (RAG) and anthropogenic aerosols in the atmosphere. Among the by-products of combustion, carbon dioxide is the leading RAG. Fossil fuel combustion also generates sulfates and soot, the principal constituents of the Arctic haze. Both CO2 and Arctic haze interact with radiative processes to produce external climate forcing. Due to their strong tendency to absorb visible solar radiation, soot particles result in strong diabatic heating in the Arctic. With a mixing ratio of 10-10, a concentration 1 million times less than H2O, the solar radiative heating produced by particulate soot is still comparable to that of H2O. The Canadian Climate Centre (CCC) has recently completed a climate simulation with a double carbon dioxide scenario. Version 2 of the CCC-GCM includes a mixed-layer ocean and thermodynamic ice model. It allows for the evaluation of climate changes due to an external forcing. The aim of this paper is to compare the climate changes induced by increasing CO2 and Arctic haze. Since both signals are occurring simultaneously, the authors must investigate the individual contributions with a climate model. A preliminary sensitivity study of the Arctic haze (February to May) with interactive sea ice was done. The analysis suggests that the excess of solar radiative heating leads to increasing rates of snow and ice melt during spring and summer. The most sensitive regions are the Canadian Arctic Archipelago and the Greenland Sea. In both regions, the ice is substantially reduced. The anomaly of sea ice amount continues its propagation northward in June and July even though the Arctic haze is absent during that period

  3. Mechanical ventilation with heat recovery in arctic climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kragh, Jesper; Svendsen, Svend

    2005-01-01

    Mechanical ventilations systems with highly effective heat recovery units in arctic climate have problems with condensing water from the extracted humid indoor air. If the condensing water freezes to ice in the heat recovery unit, the airflow rate will quickly diminish due to the increasing press...... defrosting itself. Nevertheless, extra heating is still necessary in very cold periods to avoid draft for occupants.......Mechanical ventilations systems with highly effective heat recovery units in arctic climate have problems with condensing water from the extracted humid indoor air. If the condensing water freezes to ice in the heat recovery unit, the airflow rate will quickly diminish due to the increasing...... pressure drop. Preheating the inlet air (outdoor air) to a temperature just above 0ºC is typically used to solve the problem. To minimize the energy cost, a more efficient solution to the problem is therefore desirable. In this project a new design of a heat recovery unit has been developed to the low...

  4. Investigating changes in the climate- and ecosystemof Arctic sea ice using remotely operated vehicles

    OpenAIRE

    Katlein, Christian; Arndt, Stefanie; Fernandez Mendez, Mar; Lange, Benjamin; Nicolaus, Marcel; Wenzhöfer, Frank; Jakuba, Mike; German, Chris

    2014-01-01

    The Arctic Ocean is currently undergoing a dramatic change. Decreasing sea-ice extent, thickness and age are changing important processes in the climate system. An increasing coverage of the sea ice by melt ponds and an increased amount of light transmitted to the upper ocean are also affecting the ice associated ecosystem. To document these changes, we operated different remotely operated vehicles (ROV) underneath the drifting sea ice of the Central Arctic Ocean. The newest under...

  5. Climate change and sexual size dimorphism in an Arctic spider

    OpenAIRE

    Høye, Toke Thomas; Hammel, Jörg U; Fuchs, Thomas; Toft, Søren

    2009-01-01

    Climate change is advancing the onset of the growing season and this is happening at a particularly fast rate in the High Arctic. However, in most species the relative fitness implications for males and females remain elusive. Here, we present data on 10 successive cohorts of the wolf spider Pardosa glacialis from Zackenberg in High-Arctic, northeast Greenland. We found marked inter-annual variation in adult body size (carapace width) and this variation was greater in females than in males. E...

  6. The Contribution to Arctic Climate Change from Countries in the Arctic Council

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schultz, T.; MacCracken, M. C.

    2013-12-01

    The conventional accounting frameworks for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions used today, established under the Kyoto Protocol 25 years ago, exclude short lived climate pollutants (SLCPs), and do not include regional effects on the climate. However, advances in climate science now suggest that mitigation of SLCPs can reduce up to 50% of global warming by 2050. It has also become apparent that regions such as the Arctic have experienced a much greater degree of anthropogenic warming than the globe as a whole, and that efforts to slow this warming could benefit the larger effort to slow climate change around the globe. A draft standard for life cycle assessment (LCA), LEO-SCS-002, being developed under the American National Standards Institute process, has integrated the most recent climate science into a unified framework to account for emissions of all radiatively significant GHGs and SLCPs. This framework recognizes four distinct impacts to the oceans and climate caused by GHGs and SLCPs: Global Climate Change; Arctic Climate Change; Ocean Acidification; and Ocean Warming. The accounting for Arctic Climate Change, the subject of this poster, is based upon the Absolute Regional Temperature Potential, which considers the incremental change to the Arctic surface temperature resulting from an emission of a GHG or SLCP. Results are evaluated using units of mass of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e), which can be used by a broad array of stakeholders, including scientists, consumers, policy makers, and NGOs. This poster considers the contribution to Arctic Climate Change from emissions of GHGs and SLCPs from the eight member countries of the Arctic Council; the United States, Canada, Russia, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden. Of this group of countries, the United States was the largest contributor to Arctic Climate Change in 2011, emitting 9600 MMT CO2e. This includes a gross warming of 11200 MMT CO2e (caused by GHGs, black and brown carbon, and warming effects

  7. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration(NOAA) Arctic Climate Change Studies: A Contribution to IPY

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calder, J.; Overland, J.; Uttal, T.; Richter-Menge, J.; Rigor, I.; Crane, K.

    2004-12-01

    NOAA has initiated four activities that respond to the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment(ACIA) recommendations and represent contributions toward the IPY: 1) Arctic cloud, radiation and aerosol observatories, 2) documentation and attribution of changes in sea-ice thickness through direct measurement and modeling, 3) deriving added value from existing multivariate and historical data, and 4) following physical and biological changes in the northern Bering and Chukchi Seas. Northeast Canada, the central Arctic coast of Russia and the continuing site at Barrow have been chosen as desirable radiation/cloud locations as they exhibit different responses to Arctic Oscillation variability. NOAA is closely collaborating with Canadian groups to establish an observatory at Eureka. NOAA has begun deployment of a network of ice-tethered ice mass balance buoys complemented by several ice profiling sonars. In combination with other sea ice investigators, the Arctic buoy program, and satellites, changes can be monitored more effectively in sea ice throughout the Arctic. Retrospective data analyses includes analysis of Arctic clouds and radiation from surface and satellite measurements, correction of systematic errors in TOVS radiance data sets for the Arctic which began in 1979, addressing the feasibility of an Arctic System Reanalysis, and an Arctic Change Detection project that incorporates historical and recent physical and biological observations and news items at a website, www.arctic.noaa.gov. NOAA has begun a long-term effort to detect change in ecosystem indicators in the northern Bering and Chukchi Seas that could provide a model for other northern marine ecosystems. The first efforts were undertaken in summer 2004 during a joint Russian-US cruise that mapped the regions physical, chemical and biological parameters to set the stage for future operations over the longer term. A line of biophysical moorings provide detection of the expected warming of this area. A

  8. Sensitivity of the carbon cycle in the Arctic to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGuire, A. David; Anderson, Leif G.; Christensen, Torben R.; Dallimore, Scott; Guo, Laodong; Hayes, Daniel J.; Heimann, Martin; Lorenson, T.D.; Macdonald, Robie W.; Roulet, Nigel

    2009-01-01

    The recent warming in the Arctic is affecting a broad spectrum of physical, ecological, and human/cultural systems that may be irreversible on century time scales and have the potential to cause rapid changes in the earth system. The response of the carbon cycle of the Arctic to changes in climate is a major issue of global concern, yet there has not been a comprehensive review of the status of the contemporary carbon cycle of the Arctic and its response to climate change. This review is designed to clarify key uncertainties and vulnerabilities in the response of the carbon cycle of the Arctic to ongoing climatic change. While it is clear that there are substantial stocks of carbon in the Arctic, there are also significant uncertainties associated with the magnitude of organic matter stocks contained in permafrost and the storage of methane hydrates beneath both subterranean and submerged permafrost of the Arctic. In the context of the global carbon cycle, this review demonstrates that the Arctic plays an important role in the global dynamics of both CO2 and CH4. Studies suggest that the Arctic has been a sink for atmospheric CO2 of between 0 and 0.8 Pg C/yr in recent decades, which is between 0% and 25% of the global net land/ocean flux during the 1990s. The Arctic is a substantial source of CH4 to the atmosphere (between 32 and 112 Tg CH4/yr), primarily because of the large area of wetlands throughout the region. Analyses to date indicate that the sensitivity of the carbon cycle of the Arctic during the remainder of the 21st century is highly uncertain. To improve the capability to assess the sensitivity of the carbon cycle of the Arctic to projected climate change, we recommend that (1) integrated regional studies be conducted to link observations of carbon dynamics to the processes that are likely to influence those dynamics, and (2) the understanding gained from these integrated studies be incorporated into both uncoupled and fully coupled carbon–climate

  9. Arctic climate change: Greenhouse warming unleashed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mauritsen, Thorsten

    2016-04-01

    Human activity alters the atmospheric composition, which leads to global warming. Model simulations suggest that reductions in emission of sulfur dioxide from Europe since the 1970s could have unveiled rapid Arctic greenhouse gas warming.

  10. Climate Change and Tourism in the Arctic Circle

    OpenAIRE

    Richard S.J. Tol; Sharon Walsh

    2012-01-01

    We estimate grid level tourist numbers to Arctic Circle countries under a number of climate change scenarios. At present, the highest tourism volumes are found in Canada and most of the Scandinavian countries. In general, it appears that tourists are attracted to regions with better infrastructure and nicer cities. Under each climate change scenario, Russia sees a significant increase in tourist numbers because Russia is big, its climate is expected to show some improvement and it is relative...

  11. Arctic Climate Variability and Trends from Satellite Observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xuanji Wang

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Arctic climate has been changing rapidly since the 1980s. This work shows distinctly different patterns of change in winter, spring, and summer for cloud fraction and surface temperature. Satellite observations over 1982–2004 have shown that the Arctic has warmed up and become cloudier in spring and summer, but cooled down and become less cloudy in winter. The annual mean surface temperature has increased at a rate of 0.34°C per decade. The decadal rates of cloud fraction trends are −3.4%, 2.3%, and 0.5% in winter, spring, and summer, respectively. Correspondingly, annually averaged surface albedo has decreased at a decadal rate of −3.2%. On the annual average, the trend of cloud forcing at the surface is −2.11 W/m2 per decade, indicating a damping effect on the surface warming by clouds. The decreasing sea ice albedo and surface warming tend to modulate cloud radiative cooling effect in spring and summer. Arctic sea ice has also declined substantially with decadal rates of −8%, −5%, and −15% in sea ice extent, thickness, and volume, respectively. Significant correlations between surface temperature anomalies and climate indices, especially the Arctic Oscillation (AO index, exist over some areas, implying linkages between global climate change and Arctic climate change.

  12. Is climate change affecting wolf populations in the high Arctic?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mech, L.D.

    2004-01-01

    Global climate change may affect wolves in Canada's High Arctic (80DG N) acting through three trophic levels (vegetation, herbivores, and wolves). A wolf pack dependent on muskoxen and arctic hares in the Eureka area of Ellesmere Island denned and produced pups most years from at least 1986 through 1997. However when summer snow covered vegetation in 1997 and 2000 for the first time since records were kept, halving the herbivore nutrition-replenishment period, muskox and hare numbers dropped drastically, and the area stopped supporting denning wolves through 2003. The unusual weather triggering these events was consistent with global-climate-change phenomena.

  13. Is climate change affecting wolf populations in the high arctic?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mech, L.D. [Northern Prairie Wildlife Research Center, Biological Resources Division, U.S. Geological Survey, 8711-37th St., SE, 58401-7317 Jamestown, North Dakota (United States)

    2004-11-01

    Global climate change may affect wolves in Canadas High Arctic (80{sup o} N) acting through three trophic levels (vegetation, herbivores, and wolves). A wolf pack dependent on muskoxen and arctic hares in the Eureka area of Ellesmere Island denned and produced pups most years from at least 1986 through 1997. However, when summer snow covered vegetation in 1997 and 2000 for the first time since records were kept, halving the herbivore nutrition-replenishment period, muskox and hare numbers dropped drastically, and the area stopped supporting denning wolves through 2003. The unusual weather triggering these events was consistent with global-climate-change phenomena.

  14. Climate change and zoonotic infections in the Russian Arctic

    OpenAIRE

    Revich, Boris; Tokarevich, Nikolai; Parkinson, Alan J.

    2012-01-01

    Climate change in the Russian Arctic is more pronounced than in any other part of the country. Between 1955 and 2000, the annual average air temperature in the Russian North increased by 1.2°C. During the same period, the mean temperature of upper layer of permafrost increased by 3°C. Climate change in Russian Arctic increases the risks of the emergence of zoonotic infectious diseases. This review presents data on morbidity rates among people, domestic animals and wildlife in the Russian Arct...

  15. Climate change and zoonotic infections in the Russian Arctic

    OpenAIRE

    Boris Revich; Nikolai Tokarevich; Parkinson, Alan J.

    2012-01-01

    Climate change in the Russian Arctic is more pronounced than in any other part of the country. Between 1955 and 2000, the annual average air temperature in the Russian North increased by 1.2°C. During the same period, the mean temperature of upper layer of permafrost increased by 3°C. Climate change in Russian Arctic increases the risks of the emergence of zoonotic infectious diseases. This review presents data on morbidity rates among people, domestic animals and wildlife in th...

  16. Impact of Holocene climate variability on Arctic vegetation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gajewski, K.

    2015-10-01

    This paper summarizes current knowledge about the postglacial history of the vegetation of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA) and Greenland. Available pollen data were used to understand the initial migration of taxa across the Arctic, how the plant biodiversity responded to Holocene climate variability, and how past climate variability affected primary production of the vegetation. Current evidence suggests that most of the flora arrived in the area during the Holocene from Europe or refugia south or west of the region immediately after local deglaciation, indicating rapid dispersal of propagules to the region from distant sources. There is some evidence of shrub species arriving later in Greenland, but it is not clear if this is dispersal limited or a response to past climates. Subsequent climate variability had little effect on biodiversity across the CAA, with some evidence of local extinctions in areas of Greenland in the late Holocene. The most significant impact of climate changes is on vegetation density and/or plant production.

  17. Collaborative Research: Towards Advanced Understanding and Predictive Capability of Climate Change in the Arctic Using a High-Resolution Regional Arctic Climate Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cassano, John [Principal Investigator

    2013-06-30

    The primary research task completed for this project was the development of the Regional Arctic Climate Model (RACM). This involved coupling existing atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, and land models using the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate System Model (CCSM) coupler (CPL7). RACM is based on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) atmospheric model, the Parallel Ocean Program (POP) ocean model, the CICE sea ice model, and the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land model. A secondary research task for this project was testing and evaluation of WRF for climate-scale simulations on the large pan-Arctic model domain used in RACM. This involved identification of a preferred set of model physical parameterizations for use in our coupled RACM simulations and documenting any atmospheric biases present in RACM.

  18. Severity of climate change dictates the direction of biophysical feedbacks of vegetation change to Arctic climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Wenxin; Jansson, Christer; Miller, Paul; Smith, Ben; Samuelsson, Patrick

    2014-05-01

    Vegetation-climate feedbacks induced by vegetation dynamics under climate change alter biophysical properties of the land surface that regulate energy and water exchange with the atmosphere. Simulations with Earth System Models applied at global scale suggest that the current warming in the Arctic has been amplified, with large contributions from positive feedbacks, dominated by the effect of reduced surface albedo as an increased distribution, cover and taller stature of trees and shrubs mask underlying snow, darkening the surface. However, these models generally employ simplified representation of vegetation dynamics and structure and a coarse grid resolution, overlooking local or regional scale details determined by diverse vegetation composition and landscape heterogeneity. In this study, we perform simulations using an advanced regional coupled vegetation-climate model (RCA-GUESS) applied at high resolution (0.44×0.44° ) over the Arctic Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX-Arctic) domain. The climate component (RCA4) is forced with lateral boundary conditions from EC-EARTH CMIP5 simulations for three representative concentration pathways (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 8.5). Vegetation-climate response is simulated by the individual-based dynamic vegetation model (LPJ-GUESS), accounting for phenology, physiology, demography and resource competition of individual-based vegetation, and feeding variations of leaf area index and vegetative cover fraction back to the climate component, thereby adjusting surface properties and surface energy fluxes. The simulated 2m air temperature, precipitation, vegetation distribution and carbon budget for the present period has been evaluated in another paper. The purpose of this study is to elucidate the spatial and temporal characteristics of the biophysical feedbacks arising from vegetation shifts in response to different CO2 concentration pathways and their associated climate change. Our results indicate that the

  19. Changes to freshwater systems affecting Arctic infrastructure and natural resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Instanes, Arne; Kokorev, Vasily; Janowicz, Richard; Bruland, Oddbjørn; Sand, Knut; Prowse, Terry

    2016-03-01

    The resources component of the Arctic Freshwater Synthesis focuses on the potential impact of future climate and change on water resources in the Arctic and how Arctic infrastructure and exploration and production of natural resources are affected. Freshwater availability may increase in the Arctic in the future in response to an increase in middle- and high-latitude annual precipitation. Changes in type of precipitation, its seasonal distribution, timing, and rate of snowmelt represent a challenge to municipalities and transportation networks subjected to flooding and droughts and to current industries and future industrial development. A reliable well-distributed water source is essential for all infrastructures, industrial development, and other sectorial uses in the Arctic. Fluctuations in water supply and seasonal precipitation and temperature may represent not only opportunities but also threats to water quantity and quality for Arctic communities and industrial use. The impact of future climate change is varying depending on the geographical area and the current state of infrastructure and industrial development. This paper provides a summary of our current knowledge related to the system function and key physical processes affecting northern water resources, industry, and other sectorial infrastructure.

  20. Interdisciplinary cooperation on impacts of climate change in the Arctic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wardell, Lois; Chen, Linling; Strey, Sara

    2012-09-01

    Impact of Climate Change on Resources, Maritime Transport and Geopolitics in the Arctic and the Svalbard Area; Svalbard, Norway, 21-28 August 2011 Drastic changes in the Arctic climate directly relate to resource and transport development and complex geopolitical challenges in the Arctic. To encourage future interdisciplinary cooperation among political, social, and climate scientists, 30 early-career researchers from varied backgrounds—including climate change, resources, polar maritime transport, and geopolitics—assembled in Svalbard, Norway. Ola Johannessen, president of the Norwegian Scientific Academy of Polar Research, led this diverse group to highlight the importance of collaboration across disciplines for broadening the terms in which assessments are defined, thus collapsing distinctions between the physical and the human Arctic. He also highlighted the feasibility of conducting effective assessment exercises within short time frames. The group was also mentored by Willy Østreng, author of Science Without Boundaries: Interdisciplinarity in Research, Society, and Politics, who aided participants in understanding the process of interdisciplinary collaboration rather than creating an assemblage of discrete findings.

  1. Climate Change and Risk Management Challenges in the Arctic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jakobsen, Uffe

    Climate change or global warming results in melting ice in the Arctic, both inland and sea ice. This opens up opportunities of natural ressource extraction and possibilities of new shipping routes, that opens up opportunities for increased maritime activities. However, with these opportunies come...

  2. Arctic climate change in an ensemble of regional CORDEX simulations

    OpenAIRE

    Koenigk, Torben; Berg, Peter; Döscher, Ralf

    2015-01-01

    Fifth phase Climate Model Intercomparison Project historical and scenario simulations from four global climate models (GCMs) using the Representative Concentration Pathways greenhouse gas concentration trajectories RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 are downscaled over the Arctic with the regional Rossby Centre Atmosphere model (RCA). The regional model simulations largely reflect the circulation bias patterns of the driving global models in the historical period, indicating the importance of lateral and lowe...

  3. Prioritizing Climate Change Adaptations in Canadian Arctic Communities

    OpenAIRE

    Clara Champalle; Ford, James D; Mya Sherman

    2015-01-01

    Arctic regions are experiencing the most rapid climate change globally and adaptation has been identified as a priority across scales. Anticipatory planning to adapt to the impacts of climate change usually follows a number of steps: assess current and future vulnerability, identify potential adaptations, prioritize options, implement prioritized options, and monitor and evaluate implementation. While most of these steps are well documented, there has been limited examination of the process o...

  4. Icy rivers heating up : Modelling hydrological impacts of climate change in the (sub)arctic

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Linden, Sandra van der

    2003-01-01

    The Arctic is considered to be particularly sensitive to global climate change. Global warming will seriously affect the components of the water balance in northern regions and changes in precipitation and temperature have immediate as well as long term effects on river systems. The main goal of thi

  5. Emissions and climate forcing from global and Arctic fishing vessels

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKuin, Brandi; Campbell, J. Elliott

    2016-02-01

    Fishing vessels were recently found to be the largest source of black carbon ship emissions in the Arctic, suggesting that the fishing sector should be a focus for future studies. Here we developed a global and Arctic emissions inventory for fishing vessel emissions of short-lived and long-lived climate forcers based on data from a wide range of vessel sizes, fuel sulfur contents, engine types, and operational characteristics. We found that previous work generally underestimated emissions of short-lived climate forcers due to a failure to account for small fishing vessels as well as variability in emission factors. In particular, global black carbon emissions were underestimated by an order of magnitude. Furthermore, our order of magnitude estimate of the net climate effect from these fishing vessel emissions suggests that short-lived climate forcing may be particularly important in regions where fuel has a low sulfur content. These results have implications for proposed maritime policies and provide a foundation for future climate simulations to forecast climate change impacts in the Arctic.

  6. Climatically sensitive 'Arctic': Another scientific frontier for India

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Khare, N. [Ministry of Earth Sciences, Goa (India). National Centre for Antarctic and Ocean Research

    2008-01-15

    According to the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report, climate change is set to impact every continent and threaten nearly a third of the world's species with extinction. Effects on the earth's weather systems from increasing greenhouse gases will change rainfall pattern, punch-up the power of storms and boost the risk of droughts, flooding and stress on water supplies. Therefore, economic planners are in the quest of predictive models of such climatic change. It has now become a global responsibility to understand the climate change, on both short and long timescales as a global phenomenon, with different parts of the earth responding to the climatic change with a time lead-lag and by different orders of magnitude. Though the exact cause of climatic change on earth is still unknown, the time lead-lag in climatic change in different parts of the earth helps in understanding the role of various regions in triggering (?) or enhancing the climatic change. Deciphering and inter-comparing the climatic history of different geographic regions can help to better understand the possible role of different geographic regions in global climatic variations. The Arctic region is critical for studying global change because it impacts the entire earth system through powerful feedback processes involving the atmosphere, cryosphere, land surface and ocean. The Arctic region will experience the effects of global warming first and will amplify its effects within the earth system. Rapid changes are being observed in the Arctic region, which may be considered as the barometer of global climatic change. The Arctic region and its ecosystem serve an area of active research because it is particularly sensitive to climate change and also because climatically induced environmental changes can induce further changes of global consequence. The Arctic system is not only an amplifier of variability in the global climate, but also of the effects of greenhouse forcings

  7. Arctic Precipitation Analysis from the Arctic System Reanalysis (ASR): 2000-2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koyama, T.; Stroeve, J. C.

    2015-12-01

    Recent Arctic Amplification (AA), (e.g. the warming trend in the Arctic that is larger than for the Northern Hemisphere or the global average), is strongly linked to declining sea ice extent (SIE) [Serreze and Barry, 2011]. Precipitation over the Arctic Ocean is projected to increase thorough the twenty-first century, in part linked to AA and SIE decline [Kattsov et al., 2007; Bintanja and Selten, 2014]. Since mass loss from the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) is a key element in sea level rise through the end of this century, it is important to understand how precipitation may change in the future and impact the GrIS mass balance. As the first step, we need to better understand how current ice loss may be impacting precipitation over the ice sheet. Towards this end, monthly precipitation data from the Arctic System Reanalysis (ASR) is compared with gauge observations over Greenland. ASR is a high-resolution regional assimilation of model output developed as a resource for the detection and diagnosis of change in the coupled Arctic climate system [Bromwich et al., 2015]. In order to explore linkages between precipitation over Greenland and the surrounding SIE, ASR forecast precipitation data and SIE data from the NASA Team Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer and Special Sensor Microwave/Imager data set [Cavalieri et al., 1999] are statistically analyzed from 2000 to 2012. As a case study, spatial distributions of precipitation and pressure at the surface and in the middle troposphere over the Arctic are analyzed during the great Arctic cyclone of August 2012 [Simmonds and Rudeva, 2012; Parkinson and Comiso, 2013; Zhang et al., 2013].

  8. Influence of climate model variability on projected Arctic shipping futures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephenson, Scott R.; Smith, Laurence C.

    2015-11-01

    Though climate models exhibit broadly similar agreement on key long-term trends, they have significant temporal and spatial differences due to intermodel variability. Such variability should be considered when using climate models to project the future marine Arctic. Here we present multiple scenarios of 21st-century Arctic marine access as driven by sea ice output from 10 CMIP5 models known to represent well the historical trend and climatology of Arctic sea ice. Optimal vessel transits from North America and Europe to the Bering Strait are estimated for two periods representing early-century (2011-2035) and mid-century (2036-2060) conditions under two forcing scenarios (RCP 4.5/8.5), assuming Polar Class 6 and open-water vessels with medium and no ice-breaking capability, respectively. Results illustrate that projected shipping viability of the Northern Sea Route (NSR) and Northwest Passage (NWP) depends critically on model choice. The eastern Arctic will remain the most reliably accessible marine space for trans-Arctic shipping by mid-century, while outcomes for the NWP are particularly model-dependent. Omitting three models (GFDL-CM3, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, and MPI-ESM-MR), our results would indicate minimal NWP potential even for routes from North America. Furthermore, the relative importance of the NSR will diminish over time as the number of viable central Arctic routes increases gradually toward mid-century. Compared to vessel class, climate forcing plays a minor role. These findings reveal the importance of model choice in devising projections for strategic planning by governments, environmental agencies, and the global maritime industry.

  9. Arctic climate response to the termination of the African Humid Period

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muschitiello, Francesco; Zhang, Qiong; Sundqvist, Hanna S.; Davies, Frazer J.; Renssen, Hans

    2015-10-01

    The Earth's climate response to the rapid vegetation collapse at the termination of the African Humid Period (AHP) (5.5-5.0 kyr BP) is still lacking a comprehensive investigation. Here we discuss the sensitivity of mid-Holocene Arctic climate to changes in albedo brought by a rapid desertification of the Sahara. By comparing a network of surface temperature reconstructions with output from a coupled global climate model, we find that, through a system of land-atmosphere feedbacks, the end of the AHP reduced the atmospheric and oceanic poleward heat transport from tropical to high northern latitudes. This entails a general weakening of the mid-latitude Westerlies, which results in a shift towards cooling over the Arctic and North Atlantic regions, and a change from positive to negative Arctic Oscillation-like conditions. This mechanism would explain the sign of rapid hydro-climatic perturbations recorded in several reconstructions from high northern latitudes at 5.5-5.0 kyr BP, suggesting that these regions are sensitive to changes in Saharan land cover during the present interglacial. This is central in the debate surrounding Arctic climate amplification and future projections for subtropical precipitation changes.

  10. Law, climate change and the arctic: legal governance of climate change induced risks in the arctic ecosystems

    OpenAIRE

    Meyenhofer, Nadja

    2014-01-01

    Climate change is the cause of a variety of new environmental risks, which profoundly affect the Earth's ecosystems. Maintaining fragile regions, such as the Arctic and protecting them against threats is in this context of utmost importance, as their ecosystems provide many valuable goods and services human well-being depends upon. This thesis offers a definition of climate change induced risks and outlines how they are being governed under existing international, regional and domestic la...

  11. The Arctic as a test case for an assessment of climate impacts on national security.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Taylor, Mark A.; Zak, Bernard Daniel; Backus, George A.; Ivey, Mark D.; Boslough, Mark Bruce Elrick

    2008-11-01

    The Arctic region is rapidly changing in a way that will affect the rest of the world. Parts of Alaska, western Canada, and Siberia are currently warming at twice the global rate. This warming trend is accelerating permafrost deterioration, coastal erosion, snow and ice loss, and other changes that are a direct consequence of climate change. Climatologists have long understood that changes in the Arctic would be faster and more intense than elsewhere on the planet, but the degree and speed of the changes were underestimated compared to recent observations. Policy makers have not yet had time to examine the latest evidence or appreciate the nature of the consequences. Thus, the abruptness and severity of an unfolding Arctic climate crisis has not been incorporated into long-range planning. The purpose of this report is to briefly review the physical basis for global climate change and Arctic amplification, summarize the ongoing observations, discuss the potential consequences, explain the need for an objective risk assessment, develop scenarios for future change, review existing modeling capabilities and the need for better regional models, and finally to make recommendations for Sandia's future role in preparing our leaders to deal with impacts of Arctic climate change on national security. Accurate and credible regional-scale climate models are still several years in the future, and those models are essential for estimating climate impacts around the globe. This study demonstrates how a scenario-based method may be used to give insights into climate impacts on a regional scale and possible mitigation. Because of our experience in the Arctic and widespread recognition of the Arctic's importance in the Earth climate system we chose the Arctic as a test case for an assessment of climate impacts on national security. Sandia can make a swift and significant contribution by applying modeling and simulation tools with internal collaborations as well as with

  12. Climate change in the Arctic and its empirical diagnostics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The hypothesis that global climate warming observed during the last century is due to anthropogenically induced carbon dioxide concentration growth, has provoked controversy. In this context, general considerations are discussed which support the view that the 'greenhouse' global warming hypothesis is doubtful. Numerical climate modelling data 'predicts' that there must be an enhancement of the 'greenhouse signal' with latitude. Some results of surface air temperature (SAT) observations in the Arctic during the last 20 - 30 years demonstrate, however, a reduction in SAT in several Arctic regions. Some dendroclimatic data for the last 200-300 years relevant to tree growth near the northern forest boundary reveals that not only the conclusion about polar enhancement of climate warming is wrong but the warming itself could hardly be real. It is concluded that no uncontroversial information exists to support the hypothesis of global 'greenhouse' warming.(author)

  13. Climate change and sexual size dimorphism in an Arctic spider.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Høye, Toke Thomas; Hammel, Jörg U; Fuchs, Thomas; Toft, Søren

    2009-08-23

    Climate change is advancing the onset of the growing season and this is happening at a particularly fast rate in the High Arctic. However, in most species the relative fitness implications for males and females remain elusive. Here, we present data on 10 successive cohorts of the wolf spider Pardosa glacialis from Zackenberg in High-Arctic, northeast Greenland. We found marked inter-annual variation in adult body size (carapace width) and this variation was greater in females than in males. Earlier snowmelt during both years of its biennial maturation resulted in larger adult body sizes and a skew towards positive sexual size dimorphism (females bigger than males). These results illustrate the pervasive influence of climate on key life-history traits and indicate that male and female responses to climate should be investigated separately whenever possible. PMID:19435831

  14. The fate of the Arctic seaweed Fucus distichus under climate change: an ecological niche modeling approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jueterbock, Alexander; Smolina, Irina; Coyer, James A; Hoarau, Galice

    2016-03-01

    Rising temperatures are predicted to melt all perennial ice cover in the Arctic by the end of this century, thus opening up suitable habitat for temperate and subarctic species. Canopy-forming seaweeds provide an ideal system to predict the potential impact of climate-change on rocky-shore ecosystems, given their direct dependence on temperature and their key role in the ecological system. Our primary objective was to predict the climate-change induced range-shift of Fucus distichus, the dominant canopy-forming macroalga in the Arctic and subarctic rocky intertidal. More specifically, we asked: which Arctic/subarctic and cold-temperate shores of the northern hemisphere will display the greatest distributional change of F. distichus and how will this affect niche overlap with seaweeds from temperate regions? We used the program MAXENT to develop correlative ecological niche models with dominant range-limiting factors and 169 occurrence records. Using three climate-change scenarios, we projected habitat suitability of F. distichus - and its niche overlap with three dominant temperate macroalgae - until year 2200. Maximum sea surface temperature was identified as the most important factor in limiting the fundamental niche of F. distichus. Rising temperatures were predicted to have low impact on the species' southern distribution limits, but to shift its northern distribution limits poleward into the high Arctic. In cold-temperate to subarctic regions, new areas of niche overlap were predicted between F. distichus and intertidal macroalgae immigrating from the south. While climate-change threatens intertidal seaweeds in warm-temperate regions, seaweed meadows will likely flourish in the Arctic intertidal. Although this enriches biodiversity and opens up new seaweed-harvesting grounds, it will also trigger unpredictable changes in the structure and functioning of the Arctic intertidal ecosystem. PMID:27087933

  15.  Climate Change and the Arctic Discourses

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjørst, Lill Rastad

    2009-01-01

      It is now a fact that global warming and climate change are on the public agenda and will remain there for a long time to come. The Arctic has been portrayed as a thermometer for the world mostly because it is very vulnerable to the climatic changes and the subsequent consequences. Inuit are used...... as an example and included as the first witnesses to ‘the big catastrophe'. My hypothesis is that the newly emerging climate debate can establish an unexpected and unique political platform where Inuit can get influence on local as well as global questions. My investigating focus concerning these...

  16. Climate sensitivity to Arctic seaway restriction during the early Paleogene

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, Christopher D.; LeGrande, Allegra N.; Tripati, Aradhna K.

    2009-09-01

    The opening and closing of ocean gateways affects the global distribution of heat, salt, and moisture, potentially driving climatic change on regional to global scales. Between 65 and 45 million years ago (Ma), during the early Paleogene, exchange between the Arctic and global oceans occurred through two narrow and shallow seaways, the Greenland-Norway seaway and the Turgai Strait. Sediments from the Arctic Ocean suggest that, during this interval, the surface ocean was warm, brackish, and episodically enabled the freshwater fern Azolla to bloom. The precise mechanisms responsible for the development of these conditions in the Paleogene Arctic remain uncertain. Here we show results from an isotope-enabled, atmosphere-ocean general circulation model, which indicate that Northern Hemisphere climate would have been very sensitive to the degree of oceanic exchange through the Arctic seaways. We also present modelled estimates of seawater and calcite δ18O for the Paleogene. By restricting these seaways, we simulate freshening of the surface Arctic Ocean to ~ 6 psu and warming of sea-surface temperatures by 2 °C in the North Atlantic and 5-10 °C in the Labrador Sea. Our results may help explain the occurrence of low-salinity tolerant taxa in the Arctic Ocean during the Eocene and provide a mechanism for enhanced warmth in the north western Atlantic. We propose that the formation of a volcanic land-bridge between Greenland and Europe could have caused increased ocean convection and warming of intermediate waters in the Atlantic. If true, this result is consistent with the theory that bathymetry changes may have caused thermal destabilisation of methane clathrates and supports a tectonic trigger hypothesis for the Paleocene Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM).

  17. Gender specific reproductive strategies of an arctic key species (Boreogadus saida) and implications of climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Nahrgang, Jasmine; Varpe, Øystein; Korshunova, Ekaterina; Murzina, Svetlana; Hallanger, Ingeborg G.; Vieweg, Ireen; Berge, Jørgen

    2014-01-01

    The Arctic climate is changing at an unprecedented rate. What consequences this may have on the Arctic marine ecosystem depends to a large degree on how its species will respond both directly to elevated temperatures and more indirectly through ecological interactions. But despite an alarming recent warming of the Arctic with accompanying sea ice loss, reports evaluating ecological impacts of climate change in the Arctic remain sparse. Here, based upon a large-scale field study, we present ba...

  18. Food and water security in a changing arctic climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In the Arctic, permafrost extends up to 500 m below the ground surface, and it is generally just the top metre that thaws in summer. Lakes, rivers, and wetlands on the arctic landscape are normally not connected with groundwater in the same way that they are in temperate regions. When the surface is frozen in winter, only lakes deeper than 2 m and rivers with significant flow retain liquid water. Surface water is largely abundant in summer, when it serves as a breeding ground for fish, birds, and mammals. In winter, many mammals and birds are forced to migrate out of the Arctic. Fish must seek out lakes or rivers deep enough to provide good overwintering habitat. Humans in the Arctic rely on surface water in many ways. Surface water meets domestic needs such as drinking, cooking, and cleaning as well as subsistence and industrial demands. Indigenous communities depend on sea ice and waterways for transportation across the landscape and access to traditional country foods. The minerals, mining, and oil and gas industries also use large quantities of surface water during winter to build ice roads and maintain infrastructure. As demand for this limited, but heavily-relied-upon resource continues to increase, it is now more critical than ever to understand the impacts of climate change on food and water security in the Arctic

  19. Climate change and impacts on human health in the Arctic: an international workshop on emerging threats and the response of Arctic communities to climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Parkinson, Alan J.; Berner, James

    2009-01-01

    The Arctic Climate Impact Assessment(ACIA) was published in 2005 and was the firstcomprehensive scientific assessment of climatechange in the Arctic (1). Potential direct andindirect health impacts of climate change aredescribed in chapter 15 of this assessment.International Journal of Circumpolar Health 68:1 2009

  20. Climate Change and China as a Global Emerging Regulatory Sea Power in the Arctic Ocean

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cassotta Pertoldi-Bianchi, Sandra; Hossain, Kamrul; Ren, Jingzheng;

    2015-01-01

    on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) and the Arctic Council (AC) are taken into consideration under climate change effects, to assess how global legal frameworks and institutions can deal with China’s strategy in the Arctic Ocean. China’s is moving away from its role as “humble power” to one of “informal......The impact of climate change in the Arctic Ocean such as ice melting and ice retreat facilitates natural resources extraction. Arctic fossil fuel becomes the drivers of geopolitical changes in the Arctic Ocean. Climate change facilitates natural resource extractions and increases competition...... imperialistic” resulting in substantial impact on the Arctic and Antartic dynamism. Due to ice-melting, an easy access to natural resources, China’s Arctic strategy in the Arctic Ocean has reinforced its military martitime strategy and has profoundly changed its maritime military doctrine shifting from regional...

  1. Arctic climate change and oil spill risk analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    William B. Samuels; David E. Amstutz; Heather A. Crowley

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this project was to:1) describe the effects of climate change in the Arctic and its impact on circulation,2) describe hindcast data used in the Ocean Energy Management,Regulation and Enforcement (BOEMRE) Oil Spill Risk Analysis (OSRA) model,3)evaluate alternatives such as using forecast results in the OSRA model,and 4) recommend future studies.Effects of climate change on winds,sea ice,ocean circulation and river discharge in the Arctic and impacts on surface circulation can be evaluated only through a series of specially designed numerical experiments using highresolution coupled ice-ocean models to elucidate the sensitivity of the models to various parameterizations or forcings.The results of these experiments will suggest what mechanisms are most important in controlling model response and guide inferences on how OSRA may respond to different climate change scenarios.Climatological change in the Arctic could lead to drastic alterations of wind,sea ice cover and concentration,and surface current fields all of which would influence hypothetical oil spill trajectories.Because of the pace at which conditions are changing,BOEMRE needs to assess whether forecast ice/ocean model results might contain useful information for the purposes of calculating hypothetical oil spill trajectories.

  2. Past Changes in Arctic Terrestrial Ecosystems, Climate and UV Radiation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Callaghan, Terry V. [Abisko Scientific Research Station, Abisko (Sweden); Bjoern, Lars Olof [Lund Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Cell and Organism Biology; Chernov, Yuri [Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow (Russian Federation). A.N. Severtsov Inst. of Evolutionary Morphology and Animal Ecology] (and others)

    2004-11-01

    At the last glacial maximum, vast ice sheets covered many continental areas. The beds of some shallow seas were exposed thereby connecting previously separated landmasses. Although some areas were ice-free and supported a flora and fauna, mean annual temperatures were 10-13 deg C colder than during the Holocene. Within a few millennia of the glacial maximum, deglaciation started, characterized by a series of climatic fluctuations between about 18,000 and 11,400 years ago. Following the general thermal maximum in the Holocene, there has been a modest overall cooling trend, superimposed upon which have been a series of millennial and centennial fluctuations in climate such as the 'Little Ice Age' spanning approximately the late 13th to early 19th centuries. Throughout the climatic fluctuations of the last 150,000 years, Arctic ecosystems and biota have been close to their minimum extent within the most recent 10,000 years. They suffered loss of diversity as a result of extinctions during the most recent large-magnitude rapid global warming at the end of the last glacial stage. Consequently, Arctic ecosystems and biota such as large vertebrates are already under pressure and are particularly vulnerable to current and projected future global warming. Evidence from the past indicates that the treeline will very probably advance, perhaps rapidly, into tundra areas, as it did during the early Holocene, reducing the extent of tundra and increasing the risk of species extinction. Species will very probably extend their ranges northwards, displacing Arctic species as in the past. However, unlike the early Holocene, when lower relative sea level allowed a belt of tundra to persist around at least some parts of the Arctic basin when treelines advanced to the present coast, sea level is very likely to rise in future, further restricting the area of tundra and other treeless Arctic ecosystems. The negative response of current Arctic ecosystems to global climatic

  3. SEARCH: Study of Environmental Arctic Change--A System-scale, Cross-disciplinary Arctic Research Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shnoro, R. S.; Eicken, H.; Francis, J. A.; Scambos, T. A.; Schuur, E. A.; Straneo, F.; Wiggins, H. V.

    2013-12-01

    SEARCH is an interdisciplinary, interagency program that works with academic and government agency scientists and stakeholders to plan, conduct, and synthesize studies of Arctic change. Over the past three years, SEARCH has developed a new vision and mission, a set of prioritized cross-disciplinary 5-year goals, an integrated set of activities, and an organizational structure. The vision of SEARCH is to provide scientific understanding of arctic environmental change to help society understand and respond to a rapidly changing Arctic. SEARCH's 5-year science goals include: 1. Improve understanding, advance prediction, and explore consequences of changing Arctic sea ice. 2. Document and understand how degradation of near-surface permafrost will affect Arctic and global systems. 3. Improve predictions of future land-ice loss and impacts on sea level. 4. Analyze societal and policy implications of Arctic environmental change. Action Teams organized around each of the 5-year goals will serve as standing groups responsible for implementing specific goal activities. Members will be drawn from academia, different agencies and stakeholders, with a range of disciplinary backgrounds and perspectives. 'Arctic Futures 2050' scenarios tasks will describe plausible future states of the arctic system based on recent trajectories and projected changes. These scenarios will combine a range of data including climate model output, paleo-data, results from data synthesis and systems modeling, as well as expert scientific and traditional knowledge. Current activities include: - Arctic Observing Network (AON) - coordinating a system of atmospheric, land- and ocean-based environmental monitoring capabilities that will significantly advance our observations of arctic environmental conditions. - Arctic Sea Ice Outlook - an international effort that provides monthly summer reports synthesizing community estimates of the expected sea ice minimum. A newly-launched Sea Ice Prediction Network

  4. Development of Exhibit on Arctic Climate Change Called The Arctic: A Friend Acting Strangely Exhibition

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stauffer, Barbara W.

    2006-04-01

    The exhibition, The Arctic: A Friend Acting Strangely, was developed at the Smithsonian Institution’s National Museum of Natural History (NMNH) as a part of the museum’s Forces of Change exhibit series on global change. It opened to the public in Spring 2006, in conjunction with another Forces of Change exhibit on the Earth’s atmosphere called Change Is in the Air. The exhibit was a 2000 square-foot presentation that explored the forces and consequences of the changing Arctic as documented by scientists and native residents alike. Native peoples of the Arctic have always lived with year-to-year fluctuations in weather and ice conditions. In recent decades, they have witnessed that the climate has become unpredictable, the land and sea unfamiliar. An elder in Arctic Canada recently described the weather as uggianaqtuq —an Inuit word that can suggest strange, unexpected behavior, sometimes described as that of “a friend acting strangely.” Scientists too have been documenting dramatic changes in the Arctic. Air temperatures have warmed over most—though not all—of the Arctic since the 1950s; Arctic precipitation may have increased by as much as 8%; seasonal melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet has increased on average by 16% since 1979; polar-orbiting satellites have measured a 15¬–20% decline in sea ice extent since the 1970s; aircraft reconnaissance and ship observations show a steady decrease in sea ice since the 1950s. In response to this warming, plant distributions have begun to shift and animals are changing their migration routes. Some of these changes may have beneficial effects while others may bring hardship or have costly implications. And, many scientists consider arctic change to be a ‘bell-weather’ for large-scale changes in other regions of the world. The exhibition included text, photos artifacts, hands-on interactives and other exhibitry that illustrated the changes being documented by indigenous people and scientists alike.

  5. Climate change and infectious diseases in the Arctic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Parkinson, Alan J; Evengard, Birgitta; Semenza, Jan C;

    2014-01-01

    The Arctic, even more so than other parts of the world, has warmed substantially over the past few decades. Temperature and humidity influence the rate of development, survival and reproduction of pathogens and thus the incidence and prevalence of many infectious diseases. Higher temperatures may...... distribution of a range of infectious diseases. Many infectious diseases are climate sensitive, where their emergence in a region is dependent on climate-related ecological changes. Most are zoonotic diseases, and can be spread between humans and animals by arthropod vectors, water, soil, wild or domestic...

  6. Will Arctic ground squirrels impede or accelerate climate-induced vegetation changes to the Arctic tundra?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dalton, J.; Flower, C. E.; Brown, J.; Gonzalez-Meler, M. A.; Whelan, C.

    2014-12-01

    Considerable attention has been given to the climate feedbacks associated with predicted vegetation shifts in the Arctic tundra in response to global environmental change. However, little is known regarding the extent to which consumers can facilitate or respond to shrub expansion. Arctic ground squirrels, the largest and most northern ground squirrel, are abundant and widespread throughout the North American tundra. Their broad diet of seeds, flowers, herbage, bird's eggs and meat speaks to the need to breed, feed, and fatten in a span of some 12-16 weeks that separate their 8-9 month bouts of hibernation with the potential consequence to impact ecosystem dynamics. Therefore Arctic ground squirrels are a good candidate to evaluate whether consumers are mere responders (bottom-up effects) or drivers (top-down) of the observed and predicted vegetation changes. As a start towards this question, we measured the foraging intensity (giving-up densities) of Arctic ground squirrels in experimental food patches within which the squirrels experience diminishing returns as they seek the raisins and peanuts that we provided at the Toolik Lake field station in northern Alaska. If the squirrels show their highest feeding intensity in the shrubs, they may impede vegetation shifts by slowing the establishment and expansion of shrubs in the tundra. Conversely, if they show their lowest feeding intensity within shrub dominated areas, they may accelerate vegetation shifts. We found neither. Feeding intensity varied most among transects and times of day, and least along a tundra-to-shrub vegetation gradient. This suggests that the impacts of squirrels will be heterogeneous - in places responders and in others drivers. We should not be surprised then to see patches of accelerated and impeded vegetation changes in the tundra ecosystem. Some of these patterns may be predictable from the foraging behavior of Arctic ground squirrels.

  7. Arctic marine mammals and climate change: impacts and resilience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Sue E; Huntington, Henry P

    2008-03-01

    Evolutionary selection has refined the life histories of seven species (three cetacean [narwhal, beluga, and bowhead whales], three pinniped [walrus, ringed, and bearded seals], and the polar bear) to spatial and temporal domains influenced by the seasonal extremes and variability of sea ice, temperature, and day length that define the Arctic. Recent changes in Arctic climate may challenge the adaptive capability of these species. Nine other species (five cetacean [fin, humpback, minke, gray, and killer whales] and four pinniped [harp, hooded, ribbon, and spotted seals]) seasonally occupy Arctic and subarctic habitats and may be poised to encroach into more northern latitudes and to remain there longer, thereby competing with extant Arctic species. A synthesis of the impacts of climate change on all these species hinges on sea ice, in its role as: (1) platform, (2) marine ecosystem foundation, and (3) barrier to non-ice-adapted marine mammals and human commercial activities. Therefore, impacts are categorized for: (1) ice-obligate species that rely on sea ice platforms, (2) ice-associated species that are adapted to sea ice-dominated ecosystems, and (3) seasonally migrant species for which sea ice can act as a barrier. An assessment of resilience is far more speculative, as any number of scenarios can be envisioned, most of them involving potential trophic cascades and anticipated human perturbations. Here we provide resilience scenarios for the three ice-related species categories relative to four regions defined by projections of sea ice reductions by 2050 and extant shelf oceanography. These resilience scenarios suggest that: (1) some populations of ice-obligate marine mammals will survive in two regions with sea ice refugia, while other stocks may adapt to ice-free coastal habitats, (2) ice-associated species may find suitable feeding opportunities within the two regions with sea ice refugia and, if capable of shifting among available prey, may benefit from

  8. Arctic Vegetation under Climate Change – Biogenic Volatile Organic Compound Emissions and Leaf Anatomy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schollert, Michelle

    common arctic plant species, illustrating the great importance of vegetation composition for determining ecosystem BVOC emissions. Additionally, this thesis assesses the BVOC emission responses in common arctic plant species to effects of climate change: warming, shading and snow addition. Against...... treatment effects on BVOC emissions. Furthermore, the anatomy of arctic plants seems to respond differently to warming than species at lower latitudes. The results in this thesis demonstrate the complexity of the effects of climate change on BVOC emissions and leaf anatomy of arctic plant species...... emissions from the arctic region are assumed to be low, but data from the region is lacking. BVOC emissions are furthermore expected to change drastically due to the rapidly proceeding climate change in the Arctic, which can provide a feedback to climate warming of unknown direction and magnitude. BVOC...

  9. Changes in Arctic and Antarctic Sea Ice as a Microcosm of Global Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parkinson, Claire L.

    2014-01-01

    Polar sea ice is a key element of the climate system and has now been monitored through satellite observations for over three and a half decades. The satellite observations reveal considerable information about polar ice and its changes since the late 1970s, including a prominent downward trend in Arctic sea ice coverage and a much lesser upward trend in Antarctic sea ice coverage, illustrative of the important fact that climate change entails spatial contrasts. The decreasing ice coverage in the Arctic corresponds well with contemporaneous Arctic warming and exhibits particularly large decreases in the summers of 2007 and 2012, influenced by both preconditioning and atmospheric conditions. The increasing ice coverage in the Antarctic is not as readily explained, but spatial differences in the Antarctic trends suggest a possible connection with atmospheric circulation changes that have perhaps been influenced by the Antarctic ozone hole. The changes in the polar ice covers and the issues surrounding those changes have many commonalities with broader climate changes and their surrounding issues, allowing the sea ice changes to be viewed in some important ways as a microcosm of global climate change.

  10. Climate Change and China as a Global Emerging Regulatory Sea Power in the Arctic Ocean: Is China a Threat for Arctic Ocean Security?

    OpenAIRE

    Cassotta, Sandra; Hossain, Kamrul; Ren, Jingzheng; Goodsite, Michael Evan

    2015-01-01

    The impact of climate change in the Arctic Ocean such as ice melting and ice retreat facilitatesnatural resources extraction. Arctic fossil fuel becomes the drivers of geopolitical changes in theArctic Ocean. Climate change facilitates natural resource extractions and increases competitionbetween states and can result in tensions, even military ones. This article investigates through apolitical and legal analysis the role of China as an emerging regulatory sea power in the ArcticOcean given i...

  11. Collaborative Research. Quantifying Climate Feedbacks of the Terrestrial Biosphere under Thawing Permafrost Conditions in the Arctic

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhuang, Qianlai [Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN (United States); Schlosser, Courtney [Massachusetts Inst. of Technology (MIT), Cambridge, MA (United States); Melillo, Jerry [Marine Biological Lab. (MBL), Woods Hole, MA (United States); Walter, Katey [Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK (United States)

    2015-09-15

    Our overall goal is to quantify the potential for threshold changes in natural emission rates of trace gases, particularly methane and carbon dioxide, from pan-arctic terrestrial systems under the spectrum of anthropogenically-forced climate warming, and the conditions under which these emissions provide a strong feedback mechanism to global climate warming. This goal is motivated under the premise that polar amplification of global climate warming will induce widespread thaw and degradation of the permafrost, and would thus cause substantial changes to the landscape of wetlands and lakes, especially thermokarst (thaw) lakes, across the Arctic. Through a suite of numerical experiments that encapsulate the fundamental processes governing methane emissions and carbon exchanges – as well as their coupling to the global climate system - we intend to test the following hypothesis in the proposed research: There exists a climate warming threshold beyond which permafrost degradation becomes widespread and stimulates large increases in methane emissions (via thermokarst lakes and poorly-drained wetland areas upon thawing permafrost along with microbial metabolic responses to higher temperatures) and increases in carbon dioxide emissions from well-drained areas. Besides changes in biogeochemistry, this threshold will also influence global energy dynamics through effects on surface albedo, evapotranspiration and water vapor. These changes would outweigh any increased uptake of carbon (e.g. from peatlands and higher plant photosynthesis) and would result in a strong, positive feedback to global climate warming.

  12. Population dynamics in the high Arctic: Climate variations in time and space

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hendrichsen, Ditte Katrine

    Climatic factors profoundly influence the population dynamics, species interactions and demography of Arctic species. Analyses of the spatio-temporal dynamics within and across species are therefore necessary to understand and predict the responses of Arctic ecosystems to climatic variability, an...

  13. Boundary layer stability and Arctic climate change: a feedback study using EC-Earth

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bintanja, R.; Linden, van der E.C.; Hazeleger, W.

    2012-01-01

    Amplified Arctic warming is one of the key features of climate change. It is evident in observations as well as in climate model simulations. Usually referred to as Arctic amplification, it is generally recognized that the surface albedo feedback governs the response. However, a number of feedback m

  14. Arctic Climate Change Analysed By Two 30-year Scenario Regional Climate Model Runs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiilsholm, S.; Christensen, J. H.

    High-resolution climate change simulations for an area covering the entire Arctic have been conducted with the regional climate model (RCM) HIRHAM. The emission sce- narios used were the IPCC SRES1 marker scenarios A2 and B2. Three 30-year time slice experiments were conducted with HIRHAM for periods representing present-day (1961-1990) and the future (2071-2100) in the two scenarios. Changes of the climate between these two periods will be presented with special emphasize on the climate of Greenland.

  15. Climate change effects on human health in a gender perspective: some trends in Arctic research

    OpenAIRE

    Natalia, Kukarenko

    2011-01-01

    Background Climate change and environmental pollution have become pressing concerns for the peoples in the Arctic region. Some researchers link climate change, transformations of living conditions and human health. A number of studies have also provided data on differentiating effects of climate change on women's and men's well-being and health. Objective To show how the issues of climate and environment change, human health and gender are addressed in current research in the Arctic. The main...

  16. Climate change effects on human health in a gender perspective: some trends in Arctic research

    OpenAIRE

    Kukarenko, Natalia

    2011-01-01

    Background: Climate change and environmental pollution have become pressing concerns for the peoples in the Arctic region. Some researchers link climate change, transformations of living conditions and human health. A number of studies have also provided data on differentiating effects of climate change on women’s and men’s well-being and health. Objective: To show how the issues of climate and environment change, human health and gender are addressed in current research in the Arctic. The ma...

  17. Climate change on arctic environment, ecosystem services and society (CLICHE)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weckström, J.; Korhola, A.; Väliranta, M.; Seppä, H.; Luoto, M.; Tuittila, E.-S.; Leppäranta, M.; Kahilainen, K.; Saarinen, J.; Heikkinen, H.

    2012-04-01

    The predicted climate warming has raised many questions and concerns about its impacts on the environment and society. As a respond to the need of holistic studies comprising both of these areas, The Academy of Finland launched The Finnish Research Programme on Climate Change (FICCA 2011-2014) in spring 2010 with the main aim to focus on the interaction between the environment and society. Ultimately 11 national consortium projects were funded (total budget 12 million EUR). Here we shortly present the main objectives of the largest consortium project "Climate change on arctic environment, ecosystem services and society" (CLICHE). The CLICHE consortium comprises eight interrelated work packages (treeline, diversity, peatlands, snow, lakes, fish, tourism, and traditional livelihoods), each led by a prominent research group and a team leader. The research consortium has three main overall objectives: 1) Investigate, map and model the past, present and future climate change-induced changes in central ecosystems of the European Arctic with unprecedented precision 2) Deepen our understanding of the basic principles of ecosystem and social resilience and dynamics; identify key taxa, structures or processes that clearly indicate impending or realised global change through their loss, occurrence or behaviour, using analogues from the past (e.g. Holocene Thermal Maximum, Medieval Warm Period), experiments, observations and models 3) Develop adaptation and mitigation strategies to minimize the adverse effects of climate change on local communities, traditional livelihoods, fisheries, and tourism industry, and promote sustainable development of local community structures and enhance the quality of life of local human populations. As the project has started only recently no final results are available yet. However, the fieldwork as well as the co-operation between the research teams has thus far been very successful. Thus, the expectations for the final outcome of the project

  18. Climate change and natural hazards in the Arctic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eichelberger, J. C.; Eichelberger, L. P.

    2015-12-01

    Climate change is motivating much of the science research in the Arctic. Natural hazards, which have always been with us and can be influenced by climate, also pose a serious threat to sustainability of Arctic communities, the Native cultures they support, and the health and wellbeing of their residents. These are themes of the US Chairship of the Arctic Council. For example, repetitive floods, often associated with spring ice jams, are a particularly severe problem for river communities. People live near rivers because access to food, water and river transportation support an indigenous subsistence lifestyle. Some settlement sites for Indigenous Peoples were mandated by distant authorities without regard to natural hazards, in Alaska no less than in other countries. Thus bad policy of the past casts a long shadow into the future. Remote communities are subject to multiple challenges, including natural hazards, access to education, and limited job opportunities. These intersect to reproduce structural vulnerability and have over time created a need for substantial support from government. In the past 40 years, the themes of "sustainability" and "self reliance" have become prominent strategies for governance at both state and local levels. Communities now struggle to demonstrate their sustainability while grappling with natural hazards and chronic poverty. In the extreme, the shifting of responsibility to resource-poor communities can be called "structural violence". Accepting the status quo can mean living without sanitation and reliable water supply, leading to the high observed rates of disease not normally encountered in developed countries. Many of the efforts to address climate change and natural hazards are complementary: monitoring the environment; forecasting extreme events; and community-based participatory research and planning. Natural disaster response is complementary to the Arctic Council's Search and Rescue (SAR) initiative, differing in that those

  19. Changing climate: Geothermal evidence from permafrost in the Alaskan Arctic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lachenbruch, A.H.; Marshall, B.V.

    1986-01-01

    Temperature profiles measured in permafrost in northernmost Alaska usually have anomalous curvature in the upper 100 meters or so. When analyzed by heat-conduction theory, the profiles indicate a variable but widespread secular warming of the permafrost surface, generally in the range of 2 to 4 Celsius degrees during the last few decades to a century. Although details of the climatic change cannot be resolved with existing data, there is little doubt of its general magnitude and timing; alternative explanations are limited by the fact that heat transfer in cold permafrost is exclusively by conduction. Since models of greenhouse warming predict climatic change will be greatest in the Arctic and might already be in progress, it is prudent to attempt to understand the rapidly changing thermal regime in this region.

  20. Relating Regional Arctic Sea Ice and climate extremes over Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ionita-Scholz, Monica; Grosfeld, Klaus; Lohmann, Gerrit; Scholz, Patrick

    2016-04-01

    The potential increase of temperature extremes under climate change is a major threat to society, as temperature extremes have a deep impact on environment, hydrology, agriculture, society and economy. Hence, the analysis of the mechanisms underlying their occurrence, including their relationships with the large-scale atmospheric circulation and sea ice concentration, is of major importance. At the same time, the decline in Arctic sea ice cover during the last 30 years has been widely documented and it is clear that this change is having profound impacts at regional as well as planetary scale. As such, this study aims to investigate the relation between the autumn regional sea ice concentration variability and cold winters in Europe, as identified by the numbers of cold nights (TN10p), cold days (TX10p), ice days (ID) and consecutive frost days (CFD). We analyze the relationship between Arctic sea ice variation in autumn (September-October-November) averaged over eight different Arctic regions (Barents/Kara Seas, Beaufort Sea, Chukchi/Bering Seas, Central Arctic, Greenland Sea, Labrador Sea/Baffin Bay, Laptev/East Siberian Seas and Northern Hemisphere) and variations in atmospheric circulation and climate extreme indices in the following winter season over Europe using composite map analysis. Based on the composite map analysis it is shown that the response of the winter extreme temperatures over Europe is highly correlated/connected to changes in Arctic sea ice variability. However, this signal is not symmetrical for the case of high and low sea ice years. Moreover, the response of temperatures extreme over Europe to sea ice variability over the different Arctic regions differs substantially. The regions which have the strongest impact on the extreme winter temperature over Europe are: Barents/Kara Seas, Beaufort Sea, Central Arctic and the Northern Hemisphere. For the years of high sea ice concentration in the Barents/Kara Seas there is a reduction in the number

  1. Arctic Climate during Eocene Hyperthermals: Wet Summers on Ellesmere Island?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenwood, D. R.; West, C. K.; Basinger, J. F.

    2012-12-01

    Previous work has shown that during the late Paleocene to middle Eocene, mesothermal conditions (i.e., MAT ~12-15° C) and high precipitation (MAP > 150cm/yr) characterized Arctic climates - an Arctic rain forest. Recent analyses of Arctic Eocene wood stable isotope chemistry are consistent with the annual and seasonal temperature estimates from leaf physiognomy and nearest living relative analogy from fossil plants, including the lack of freezing winters, but is interpreted as showing that there was a summer peak in precipitation - modern analogs are best sought on the summer-wet east coasts (e.g., China, Japan, South Korea) not the winter-wet west coasts of present-day northern temperate continents (e.g., Pacific northwest of North America). Highly seasonal 'monsoon-type' summer-wet precipitation regimes (i.e., summer precip./winter precip. > 3.0) seem to characterize Eocene hyperthermal conditions in several regions of the earth, including the Arctic and Antarctic, based on both climate model sensitivity experiments and the paleoclimate proxy evidence. The leaf physiognomy proxy previously applied to estimate Arctic Paleogene precipitation was leaf area analysis (LAA), a correlation between mean leaf size in woody dicot vegetation and annual precipitation. New data from modern monsoonal sites, however demonstrates that for deciduous-dicot dominated vegetation, summer precipitation determines mean leaf size, not annual totals, and therefore that under markedly seasonal precipitation and/or light regimes that summer precipitation is being estimated using LAA. Presented here is a new analysis of a leaf macrofloras from 3 separate florules of the Margaret Formation (Split Lake, Stenkul Fiord and Strathcona Fiord) from Ellesmere Island that are placed stratigraphically as early Eocene, and likely fall within Eocene thermal maximum 1 (ETM1; = the 'PETM') or ETM2. These floras are each characterized by a mix of large-leafed and small-leafed dicot taxa, with overall

  2. Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dethloff, Klaus; Rex, Markus; Shupe, Matthew

    2016-04-01

    The Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) is an international initiative under the International Arctic Science Committee (IASC) umbrella that aims to improve numerical model representations of sea ice, weather, and climate processes through coupled system observations and modeling activities that link the central Arctic atmosphere, sea ice, ocean, and the ecosystem. Observations of many critical parameters such as cloud properties, surface energy fluxes, atmospheric aerosols, small-scale sea-ice and oceanic processes, biological feedbacks with the sea-ice ice and ocean, and others have never been made in the central Arctic in all seasons, and certainly not in a coupled system fashion. The primary objective of MOSAiC is to develop a better understanding of these important coupled-system processes so they can be more accurately represented in regional- and global-scale weather- and climate models. Such enhancements will contribute to improved modeling of global climate and weather, and Arctic sea-ice predictive capabilities. The MOSAiC observations are an important opportunity to gather the high quality and comprehensive observations needed to improve numerical modeling of critical, scale-dependent processes impacting Arctic predictability given diminished sea ice coverage and increased model complexity. Model improvements are needed to understand the effects of a changing Arctic on mid-latitude weather and climate. MOSAiC is specifically designed to provide the multi-parameter, coordinated observations needed to improve sub-grid scale model parameterizations especially with respect to thinner ice conditions. To facilitate, evaluate, and develop the needed model improvements, MOSAiC will employ a hierarchy of modeling approaches ranging from process model studies, to regional climate model intercomparisons, to operational forecasts and assimilation of real-time observations. Model evaluations prior to the field program will

  3. Impacts of northern climate changes on Arctic engineering practice

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Potential impacts of climate changes on engineering design practices in the Arctic are discussed with reference to permafrost engineering aspects, hydrology, and coastal and sea ice processes. Permafrost generally remains thermally stable only when mean annual air temperature remains 2-4 degrees below zero and the original surface conditions remain unchanged. It has been demonstrated that a temperature rise of only 1-2 degrees is very critical. The many different climate change forecasts make it difficult to design structures in permafrost with definite levels of confidence over a project's lifetime (i.e. up to 50 years). Consequences of climate warming on transportation-related structures can be estimated to a certain degree by examining experience with natural permafrost surfaces affected by land clearing or with structures built in permafrost. Melting of permafrost will be accompanied by surface settlements, slumping of slopes and banks, and creation of thaw pits and ponds, with eventual distress to many surface structures such as pavements and foundations. Designing for a warmer climate is illustrated for the case of the Bethel Highway, the first in Alaska to be designed for a progressively warmer climate. Increased water flows both from ice melting and increased precipitation in a warmer climate will make forecasting of discharge levels in drainage basins a difficult task. Of great concern to engineers is the potential for increased erosion and sediment loadings in streams. In coastal engineering, the effects of rising sea levels, increased open-water areas, and more severe storms foreseen in a warmer climate will require heavier and more elevated shore protection. On the other hand, shipping and offshore operations will be made easier. 9 refs., 4 figs

  4. Future Climate Change Will Favour Non-Specialist Mammals in the (Sub)Arctics

    OpenAIRE

    Anouschka R Hof; Jansson, Roland; Nilsson, Christer

    2012-01-01

    Arctic and subarctic (i.e., [sub] arctic) ecosystems are predicted to be particularly susceptible to climate change. The area of tundra is expected to decrease and temperate climates will extend further north, affecting species inhabiting northern environments. Consequently, species at high latitudes should be especially susceptible to climate change, likely experiencing significant range contractions. Contrary to these expectations, our modelling of species distributions suggests that predic...

  5. Foreword to the special issue: climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability in the Arctic

    OpenAIRE

    Ford, James D; Furgal, Chris

    2009-01-01

    The Arctic climate is changing, carrying wide-ranging implications for indigenous and non-indigenous inhabitants, businesses, industry and government across the circumpolar region. The latest scientific assessments indicate that change is happening faster than previously thought, and that the Arctic will continue to experience dramatic climate change in the future. This special edition of Polar Research brings together nine papers on climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability in the...

  6. Arctic cities and climate change: climate-induced changes in stability of Russian urban infrastructure built on permafrost

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shiklomanov, Nikolay; Streletskiy, Dmitry; Swales, Timothy

    2014-05-01

    Planned socio-economic development during the Soviet period promoted migration into the Arctic and work force consolidation in urbanized settlements to support mineral resources extraction and transportation industries. These policies have resulted in very high level of urbanization in the Soviet Arctic. Despite the mass migration from the northern regions during the 1990s following the collapse of the Soviet Union and the diminishing government support, the Russian Arctic population remains predominantly urban. In five Russian Administrative regions underlined by permafrost and bordering the Arctic Ocean 66 to 82% (depending on region) of the total population is living in Soviet-era urban communities. The political, economic and demographic changes in the Russian Arctic over the last 20 years are further complicated by climate change which is greatly amplified in the Arctic region. One of the most significant impacts of climate change on arctic urban landscapes is the warming and degradation of permafrost which negatively affects the structural integrity of infrastructure. The majority of structures in the Russian Arctic are built according to the passive principle, which promotes equilibrium between the permafrost thermal regime and infrastructure foundations. This presentation is focused on quantitative assessment of potential changes in stability of Russian urban infrastructure built on permafrost in response to ongoing and future climatic changes using permafrost - geotechnical model forced by GCM-projected climate. To address the uncertainties in GCM projections we have utilized results from 6 models participated in most recent IPCC model inter-comparison project. The analysis was conducted for entire extent of Russian permafrost-affected area and on several representative urban communities. Our results demonstrate that significant observed reduction in urban infrastructure stability throughout the Russian Arctic can be attributed to climatic changes and that

  7. What is an appropriate and reasonable building solution for Arctic climates based on a passive house idea?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vladyková, Petra; Rode, Carsten

    2011-01-01

    A passive house is a highly insulated building with an efficient ventilation system with heat recovery providing heating and good indoor climate. A passive house utilises the solar and internal gains in an effective way. And the heating with fresh air provided by a ventilation system does not req...... use in the Arctic. Through the adaptation of a passive house to the Arctic climate by modification of the building, the optimal energy-efficient house for the Arctic is found.......A passive house is a highly insulated building with an efficient ventilation system with heat recovery providing heating and good indoor climate. A passive house utilises the solar and internal gains in an effective way. And the heating with fresh air provided by a ventilation system does not...... require a conventional hydronic heating system. The passive house concept has been successfully implemented in latitudes 40° to 60°, mainly in German-speaking countries, in Europe, and in Scandinavia. The most interesting locations for a passive house in the Arctic regions are selected based on cross...

  8. Marine Mammals and Climate Change in the Pacific Arctic: Impacts & Resilience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, S. E.

    2014-12-01

    Extreme reductions in Arctic sea ice extent and thickness have become a hallmark of climate change, but impacts to the marine ecosystem are poorly understood. As top predators, marine mammals must adapt to biological responses to physical forcing and thereby become sentinels to ecosystem variability and reorganization. Recent sea ice retreats have influenced the ecology of marine mammals in the Pacific Arctic sector. Walruses now often haul out by the thousands along the NW Alaska coast in late summer, and reports of harbor porpoise, humpback, fin and minke whales in the Chukchi Sea demonstrate that these temperate species routinely occur there. In 2010, satellite tagged bowhead whales from Atlantic and Pacific populations met in the Northwest Passage, an overlap thought precluded by sea ice since the Holocene. To forage effectively, baleen whales must target dense patches of zooplankton and small fishes. In the Pacific Arctic, bowhead and gray whales appear to be responding to enhanced prey availability delivered both by new production and advection pathways. Two programs, the Distributed Biological Observatory (DBO) and the Synthesis of Arctic Research (SOAR), include tracking of marine mammal and prey species' responses to ecosystem shifts associated with sea ice loss. Both programs provide an integrated-ecosystem baseline in support of the development of a web-based Marine Mammal Health Map, envisioned as a component of the U.S. Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS). An overarching goal is to identify ecological patterns for marine mammals in the 'new' Arctic, as a foundation for integrative research, local response and adaptive management.

  9. Boundary layer stability and Arctic climate change: a feedback study using EC-Earth

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bintanja, R.; Linden, E.C. van der; Hazeleger, W. [Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt (Netherlands)

    2012-12-15

    Amplified Arctic warming is one of the key features of climate change. It is evident in observations as well as in climate model simulations. Usually referred to as Arctic amplification, it is generally recognized that the surface albedo feedback governs the response. However, a number of feedback mechanisms play a role in AA, of which those related to the prevalent near-surface inversion have received relatively little attention. Here we investigate the role of the near-surface thermal inversion, which is caused by radiative surface cooling in autumn and winter, on Arctic warming. We employ idealized climate change experiments using the climate model EC-Earth together with ERA-Interim reanalysis data to show that boundary-layer mixing governs the efficiency by which the surface warming signal is 'diluted' to higher levels. Reduced vertical mixing, as in the stably stratified inversion layer in Arctic winter, thus amplifies surface warming. Modelling results suggest that both shortwave - through the (seasonal) interaction with the sea ice feedback - and longwave feedbacks are affected by boundary-layer mixing, both in the Arctic and globally, with the effect on the shortwave feedback dominating. The amplifying effect will decrease, however, with climate warming because the surface inversion becomes progressively weaker. We estimate that the reduced Arctic inversion has slowed down global warming by about 5% over the past 2 decades, and we anticipate that it will continue to do so with ongoing Arctic warming. (orig.)

  10. Habitat-specific effects of climate change on a low-mobility Arctic spider species

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bowden, Joseph James; Hansen, Rikke Reisner; Olsen, Kent;

    2015-01-01

    Abstract Terrestrial ecosystems are heterogeneous habitat mosaics of varying vegetation types that are differentially affected by climate change. Arctic plant communities, for example, are changing faster in moist habitats than in dry habitats and abiotic changes like snowmelt vary locally among...... habitats. Such differences between habitats may influence the effects of climate changes on animals and this could be especially true in low-mobility species. Suitable model systems to test this idea, however, are rare. We examined how proxies of reproductive success (body size, juvenile/female ratios...... of individuals. We found significant main effects of snowmelt and habitat on sex ratio with the proportion of females decreasing significantly in response to later snowmelt only in the mesic sites. Effects of climate change may be masked by habitat differences and have implications for future range changes...

  11. Arctic marine climate of the early nineteenth century

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Brohan

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available The climate of the early nineteenth century is likely to have been significantly cooler than that of today, as it was a period of low solar activity (the Dalton minimum and followed a series of large volcanic eruptions. Proxy reconstructions of the temperature of the period do not agree well on the size of the temperature change, so other observational records from the period are particularly valuable. Weather observations have been extracted from the reports of the noted whaling captain William Scoresby Jr., and from the records of a series of Royal Navy expeditions to the Arctic, preserved in the UK National Archives. They demonstrate that marine climate in 1810–25 was marked by consistently cold summers, with abundant sea-ice. But although the period was significantly colder than the modern average, there was a lot of variability: in the Greenland Sea the summers following the Tambora eruption (1816 and 1817 were noticeably warmer, and had lower sea-ice coverage, than the years immediately preceding them; and the sea-ice coverage in Lancaster Sound in 1819 and 1820 was low even by modern standards.

  12. Arctic marine climate of the early nineteenth century

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Brohan

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available The climate of the early nineteenth century is likely to have been significantly cooler than that of today, as it was a period of low solar activity (the Dalton minimum and followed a series of large volcanic eruptions. Proxy reconstructions of the temperature of the period do not agree well on the size of the temperature change, so other observational records from the period are particularly valuable. Weather observations have been extracted from the reports of the noted whaling captain William Scoresby Jr., and from the records of a series of Royal Navy expeditions to the Arctic, preserved in the UK National Archives. They demonstrate that marine climate in 1810–1825 was marked by consistently cold summers, with abundant sea-ice. But although the period was significantly colder than the modern average, there was considerable variability: in the Greenland Sea the summers following the Tambora eruption (1816 and 1817 were noticeably warmer, and had less sea-ice coverage, than the years immediately preceding them; and the sea-ice coverage in Lancaster Sound in 1819 and 1820 was low even by modern standards.

  13. Biased thermohaline exchanges with the Arctic across the Iceland-Faroe Ridge in ocean climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olsen, S. M.; Hansen, B.; Østerhus, S.; Quadfasel, D.; Valdimarsson, H.

    2016-04-01

    The northern limb of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation and its transport of heat and salt towards the Arctic strongly modulate the climate of the Northern Hemisphere. The presence of warm surface waters prevents ice formation in parts of the Arctic Mediterranean, and ocean heat is directly available for sea-ice melt, while salt transport may be critical for the stability of the exchanges. Through these mechanisms, ocean heat and salt transports play a disproportionally strong role in the climate system, and realistic simulation is a requisite for reliable climate projections. Across the Greenland-Scotland Ridge (GSR) this occurs in three well-defined branches where anomalies in the warm and saline Atlantic inflow across the shallow Iceland-Faroe Ridge (IFR) have been shown to be particularly difficult to simulate in global ocean models. This branch (IF-inflow) carries about 40 % of the total ocean heat transport into the Arctic Mediterranean and is well constrained by observation during the last 2 decades but associated with significant inter-annual fluctuations. The inconsistency between model results and observational data is here explained by the inability of coarse-resolution models to simulate the overflow across the IFR (IF-overflow), which feeds back onto the simulated IF-inflow. In effect, this is reduced in the model to reflect only the net exchange across the IFR. Observational evidence is presented for a substantial and persistent IF-overflow and mechanisms that qualitatively control its intensity. Through this, we explain the main discrepancies between observed and simulated exchange. Our findings rebuild confidence in modelled net exchange across the IFR, but reveal that compensation of model deficiencies here through other exchange branches is not effective. This implies that simulated ocean heat transport to the Arctic is biased low by more than 10 % and associated with a reduced level of variability, while the quality of the simulated salt

  14. The mechanism of multidecadal variability in the Arctic and North Atlantic in climate model INMCM4

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Data from a 500-year preindustrial control run of climate model INMCM4 show distinct climate variability in the Arctic and North Atlantic with a period of 35–50 years. The variability can be seen as anomalies of upper ocean density that appear in the Arctic and propagate to the North Atlantic. The density gradient in a northeast–southwest direction alternates with the density gradient in a northwest–southeast direction. A positive density anomaly in the Arctic is associated with a positive salinity anomaly, a positive surface temperature anomaly and a reduction of sea ice in the Barents and Kara Seas. The nature of the variability is a vertical advection of density by thermal currents similar to that proposed in Dijkstra et al (2008 Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 366). The cycle of model variability shows that after a negative anomaly of density in the northwest Atlantic, one should expect warming in the Arctic in 5–10 years. The ensemble of decadal predictions with climate model INMCM4 starting from 1995 shows that warming in the western Arctic and especially in the Barents Sea observed in 1996–2010 can be reproduced by eight of ten ensemble members. Arctic climate predictability in this case is associated with a proposed mechanism of a 35–50 year North Atlantic–Arctic oscillation. (letter)

  15. Dangerous climate change and the importance of adaptation for the Arctic's Inuit population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ford, James D.

    2009-04-01

    The Arctic's climate is changing rapidly, to the extent that 'dangerous' climate change as defined by the United Nations Framework on Climate Change might already be occurring. These changes are having implications for the Arctic's Inuit population and are being exacerbated by the dependence of Inuit on biophysical resources for livelihoods and the low socio-economic-health status of many northern communities. Given the nature of current climate change and projections of a rapidly warming Arctic, climate policy assumes a particular importance for Inuit regions. This paper argues that efforts to stabilize and reduce greenhouse gas emissions are urgent if we are to avoid runaway climate change in the Arctic, but unlikely to prevent changes which will be dangerous for Inuit. In this context, a new policy discourse on climate change is required for Arctic regions—one that focuses on adaptation. The paper demonstrates that states with Inuit populations and the international community in general has obligations to assist Inuit to adapt to climate change through international human rights and climate change treaties. However, the adaptation deficit, in terms of what we know and what we need to know to facilitate successful adaptation, is particularly large in an Arctic context and limiting the ability to develop response options. Moreover, adaptation as an option of response to climate change is still marginal in policy negotiations and Inuit political actors have been slow to argue the need for adaptation assistance. A new focus on adaptation in both policy negotiations and scientific research is needed to enhance Inuit resilience and reduce vulnerability in a rapidly changing climate.

  16. Dangerous climate change and the importance of adaptation for the Arctic's Inuit population

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Arctic's climate is changing rapidly, to the extent that 'dangerous' climate change as defined by the United Nations Framework on Climate Change might already be occurring. These changes are having implications for the Arctic's Inuit population and are being exacerbated by the dependence of Inuit on biophysical resources for livelihoods and the low socio-economic-health status of many northern communities. Given the nature of current climate change and projections of a rapidly warming Arctic, climate policy assumes a particular importance for Inuit regions. This paper argues that efforts to stabilize and reduce greenhouse gas emissions are urgent if we are to avoid runaway climate change in the Arctic, but unlikely to prevent changes which will be dangerous for Inuit. In this context, a new policy discourse on climate change is required for Arctic regions-one that focuses on adaptation. The paper demonstrates that states with Inuit populations and the international community in general has obligations to assist Inuit to adapt to climate change through international human rights and climate change treaties. However, the adaptation deficit, in terms of what we know and what we need to know to facilitate successful adaptation, is particularly large in an Arctic context and limiting the ability to develop response options. Moreover, adaptation as an option of response to climate change is still marginal in policy negotiations and Inuit political actors have been slow to argue the need for adaptation assistance. A new focus on adaptation in both policy negotiations and scientific research is needed to enhance Inuit resilience and reduce vulnerability in a rapidly changing climate.

  17. Rapid Arctic Changes due to Infrastructure and Climate (RATIC) in the Russian North

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walker, D. A.; Kofinas, G.; Raynolds, M. K.; Kanevskiy, M. Z.; Shur, Y.; Ambrosius, K.; Matyshak, G. V.; Romanovsky, V. E.; Kumpula, T.; Forbes, B. C.; Khukmotov, A.; Leibman, M. O.; Khitun, O.; Lemay, M.; Allard, M.; Lamoureux, S. F.; Bell, T.; Forbes, D. L.; Vincent, W. F.; Kuznetsova, E.; Streletskiy, D. A.; Shiklomanov, N. I.; Fondahl, G.; Petrov, A.; Roy, L. P.; Schweitzer, P.; Buchhorn, M.

    2015-12-01

    The Rapid Arctic Transitions due to Infrastructure and Climate (RATIC) initiative is a forum developed by the International Arctic Science Committee (IASC) Terrestrial, Cryosphere, and Social & Human working groups for developing and sharing new ideas and methods to facilitate the best practices for assessing, responding to, and adaptively managing the cumulative effects of Arctic infrastructure and climate change. An IASC white paper summarizes the activities of two RATIC workshops at the Arctic Change 2014 Conference in Ottawa, Canada and the 2015 Third International Conference on Arctic Research Planning (ICARP III) meeting in Toyama, Japan (Walker & Pierce, ed. 2015). Here we present an overview of the recommendations from several key papers and posters presented at these conferences with a focus on oil and gas infrastructure in the Russian north and comparison with oil development infrastructure in Alaska. These analyses include: (1) the effects of gas- and oilfield activities on the landscapes and the Nenets indigenous reindeer herders of the Yamal Peninsula, Russia; (2) a study of urban infrastructure in the vicinity of Norilsk, Russia, (3) an analysis of the effects of pipeline-related soil warming on trace-gas fluxes in the vicinity of Nadym, Russia, (4) two Canadian initiatives that address multiple aspects of Arctic infrastructure called Arctic Development and Adaptation to Permafrost in Transition (ADAPT) and the ArcticNet Integrated Regional Impact Studies (IRIS), and (5) the effects of oilfield infrastructure on landscapes and permafrost in the Prudhoe Bay region, Alaska.

  18. Arctic-HYCOS: a Large Sample observing system for estimating freshwater fluxes in the drainage basin of the Arctic Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pietroniro, Al; Korhonen, Johanna; Looser, Ulrich; Hardardóttir, Jórunn; Johnsrud, Morten; Vuglinsky, Valery; Gustafsson, David; Lins, Harry F.; Conaway, Jeffrey S.; Lammers, Richard; Stewart, Bruce; Abrate, Tommaso; Pilon, Paul; Sighomnou, Daniel; Arheimer, Berit

    2015-04-01

    The Arctic region is an important regulating component of the global climate system, and is also experiencing a considerable change during recent decades. More than 10% of world's river-runoff flows to the Arctic Ocean and there is evidence of changes in its fresh-water balance. However, about 30% of the Arctic basin is still ungauged, with differing monitoring practices and data availability from the countries in the region. A consistent system for monitoring and sharing of hydrological information throughout the Arctic region is thus of highest interest for further studies and monitoring of the freshwater flux to the Arctic Ocean. The purpose of the Arctic-HYCOS project is to allow for collection and sharing of hydrological data. Preliminary 616 stations were identified with long-term daily discharge data available, and around 250 of these already provide online available data in near real time. This large sample will be used in the following scientific analysis: 1) to evaluate freshwater flux to the Arctic Ocean and Seas, 2) to monitor changes and enhance understanding of the hydrological regime and 3) to estimate flows in ungauged regions and develop models for enhanced hydrological prediction in the Arctic region. The project is intended as a component of the WMO (World Meteorological Organization) WHYCOS (World Hydrological Cycle Observing System) initiative, covering the area of the expansive transnational Arctic basin with participation from Canada, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Russian Federation, Sweden and United States of America. The overall objective is to regularly collect, manage and share high quality data from a defined basic network of hydrological stations in the Arctic basin. The project focus on collecting data on discharge and possibly sediment transport and temperature. Data should be provisional in near-real time if available, whereas time-series of historical data should be provided once quality assurance has been completed. The

  19. The Arctic Holocene Transitions Proxy Climate Database — Principal Millennial-Scale Patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaufman, D. S.; McKay, N.

    2014-12-01

    The Arctic Holocene Transitions (AHT) Project is a community-based, PAGES-endorsed effort to investigate centennial-scale variability in the Arctic climate system during the Holocene, and to understand the feedbacks that lead to pronounced changes. The AHT project recently released a major database of Arctic Holocene proxy climate records (Clim. Past-Disc. 10:1). The systematic review of marine and terrestrial proxy climate time series is based on quantitative screening criteria with new approaches for assessing the geochronological accuracy of age models and for characterizing the climate variables represented by the proxies. Records from only 39% of the sites could be found in the primary paleoclimate data repositories, underscoring the importance of such community-based efforts to assembling a comprehensive product. The database authors, including representatives from six Arctic regions, considered published records from nearly 500 sites. Of these, time series from 170 sites met the criteria for inclusion in the database. Namely, the records are located north of 58°N, extend back at least to 6 cal ka (84% extend back > 8 ka), are resolved at sub-millennial scale (at least one value every 400 ± 200 yr) and have age models constrained by at least one age every 3000 yr. The database contains proxy records from lake sediment (60%), marine sediment (32%), glacier ice (5%), and other sources. Most (60%) reflect temperature (mainly summer warmth) and are primarily based on pollen, chironomid or diatom assemblages. Many (15%) reflect some aspect of hydroclimate as inferred from stable isotopes, pollen assemblages, and other indicators. Principal component (PC) analyses indicates that the predominant pattern of change in temperature-sensitive time series is a ramp between 5 and 3 ka that separates millennial-long intervals of less-pronounced change. This shift corresponds to cooling at most sites, but a substantial fraction of sites warm across this transition. Between

  20. Arctic Holocene proxy climate database – new approaches to assessing geochronological accuracy and encoding climate variables

    OpenAIRE

    Sundqvist, H. S.; Kaufman, D S; N. P. McKay; Balascio, N.L.; Briner, J.P.; Cwynar, L. C.; H. P. Sejrup; Seppä, H.; Subetto, D.A.; Andrews, J. T.; Y. Axford; Bakke, J.; H. J. B. Birks; Brooks, S.J.; de Vernal, A.

    2014-01-01

    We present a systematic compilation of previously published Holocene proxy climate records from the Arctic. We identified 170 sites from north of 58° N latitude where proxy time series extend back at least to 6 cal ka (all ages in this article are in calendar years before present – BP), are resolved at submillennial scale (at least one value every 400 ± 200 years) and have age models constrained by at least one age every 3000 years. In addition to conventional metadata for e...

  1. Arctic Holocene proxy climate database – New approaches to assessing geochronological accuracy and encoding climate variables

    OpenAIRE

    Sundqvist, H. S.; Kaufman, D S; N. P. McKay; Balascio, N.L.; Briner, J.P.; Cwynar, L. C.; H. P. Sejrup; Seppä, H.; Subetto, D.A.; Andrews, J. T.; Y. Axford; Bakke, J.; H. J. B. Birks; Brooks, S.J.; de Vernal, A.

    2014-01-01

    We present a systematic compilation of previously published Holocene proxy climate records from the Arctic. We identified 170 sites from north of 58° N latitude where proxy time series extend back at least to 6 cal ka (all ages in this article are in calendar years before present – BP), are resolved at submillennial scale (at least one value every 400 ± 200 years) and have age models constrained by at least one age every 3000 years. In addition to conventional metadata for each proxy record (...

  2. The Arctic

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Global climate change in the Arctic is a growing concern. Research has already documented pronounced changes, and models predict that increases in temperature from anthropogenic influences could be considerably higher than the global average. The impacts of climate change on Arctic ecosystems are complex and difficult to predict because of the many interactions within ecosystem, and between many concurrently changing environmental variables. Despite the global consequences of change in the Arctic climate the monitoring of basic abiotic as well as biotic parameters are not adequate to assess the impact of global climate change. The uneven geographical location of present monitoring stations in the Arctic limits the ability to understand the climate system. The impact of previous variations and potential future changes to ecosystems is not well understood and need to be addressed. At this point, there is no consensus of scientific opinion on how much of the current changes that are due to anthropogenic influences or to natural variation. Regardless of the cause, there is a need to investigate and assess current observations and their effects to the Arctic. In this chapter examples from both terrestrial and marine ecosystems from ongoing monitoring and research projects are given. (LN)

  3. Climate Change in the North American Arctic: A One Health Perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dudley, Joseph P; Hoberg, Eric P; Jenkins, Emily J; Parkinson, Alan J

    2015-12-01

    Climate change is expected to increase the prevalence of acute and chronic diseases among human and animal populations within the Arctic and subarctic latitudes of North America. Warmer temperatures are expected to increase disease risks from food-borne pathogens, water-borne diseases, and vector-borne zoonoses in human and animal populations of Arctic landscapes. Existing high levels of mercury and persistent organic pollutant chemicals circulating within terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems in Arctic latitudes are a major concern for the reproductive health of humans and other mammals, and climate warming will accelerate the mobilization and biological amplification of toxic environmental contaminants. The adverse health impacts of Arctic warming will be especially important for wildlife populations and indigenous peoples dependent upon subsistence food resources from wild plants and animals. Additional research is needed to identify and monitor changes in the prevalence of zoonotic pathogens in humans, domestic dogs, and wildlife species of critical subsistence, cultural, and economic importance to Arctic peoples. The long-term effects of climate warming in the Arctic cannot be adequately predicted or mitigated without a comprehensive understanding of the interactive and synergistic effects between environmental contaminants and pathogens in the health of wildlife and human communities in Arctic ecosystems. The complexity and magnitude of the documented impacts of climate change on Arctic ecosystems, and the intimacy of connections between their human and wildlife communities, makes this region an appropriate area for development of One Health approaches to identify and mitigate the effects of climate warming at the community, ecosystem, and landscape scales. PMID:26070525

  4. Arctic sea ice response to atmospheric forcings with varying levels of anthropogenic warming and climate variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Jinlun; Steele, Michael; Schweiger, Axel

    2010-10-01

    Numerical experiments are conducted to project arctic sea ice responses to varying levels of future anthropogenic warming and climate variability over 2010-2050. A summer ice-free Arctic Ocean is likely by the mid-2040s if arctic surface air temperature (SAT) increases 4°C by 2050 and climate variability is similar to the past relatively warm two decades. If such a SAT increase is reduced by one-half or if a future Arctic experiences a range of SAT fluctuation similar to the past five decades, a summer ice-free Arctic Ocean would be unlikely before 2050. If SAT increases 4°C by 2050, summer ice volume decreases to very low levels (10-37% of the 1978-2009 summer mean) as early as 2025 and remains low in the following years, while summer ice extent continues to fluctuate annually. Summer ice volume may be more sensitive to warming while summer ice extent more sensitive to climate variability. The rate of annual mean ice volume decrease relaxes approaching 2050. This is because, while increasing SAT increases summer ice melt, a thinner ice cover increases winter ice growth. A thinner ice cover also results in a reduced ice export, which helps to further slow ice volume loss. Because of enhanced winter ice growth, arctic winter ice extent remains nearly stable and therefore appears to be a less sensitive climate indicator.

  5. Holocene glaciation and climate evolution of Baffin Island, Arctic Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Gifford H.; Wolfe, Alexander P.; Briner, Jason P.; Sauer, Peter E.; Nesje, Atle

    2005-08-01

    Lake sediment cores and cosmogenic exposure (CE) dates constrain the pattern of deglaciation and evolution of climate across Baffin Island since the last glacial maximum (LGM). CE dating of erratics demonstrates that the northeastern coastal lowlands became ice-free ca.14 ka as the Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS) receded from its LGM margin on the continental shelf. Coastal lakes in southeastern Baffin Island started to accumulate sediment at this time, whereas initial lacustrine sedimentation was delayed by two millennia in the north. Reduced organic matter in lake sediment deposited during the Younger Dryas chron, and the lack of a glacial readvance at that time suggest cold summers and reduced snowfall. Ice retreated rapidly after 11 ka but was interrupted by a widespread readvance of both the LIS and local mountain glaciers ˜9.6 ka (Cockburn Substage). A second readvance occurred just before 8 ka during a period of unusually cold summers, corresponding to the 8.2 ka cold event in the Greenland Ice Sheet. Most local glaciers were behind their present margins before 7 ka, and in some instances much earlier, although the Foxe Dome of the LIS continued to slowly retract toward the present day Barnes Ice Cap throughout the Holocene. Pollen in lake sediments is rare and dominated by exotic sources prior to 12 ka. Subsequently, grass tundra became established, followed by modern tundra vegetation ca. 8 ka, with subtle changes in pollen assemblages in the late Holocene. Lake primary productivity peaked in the early Holocene, before terrestrial vegetation or marine surface waters reached their apparent thermal maxima. Lacustrine, marine, and glacial proxies all reflect significant late Holocene cooling. The onset of Neoglaciation is well dated in lacustrine records at ca. 6 ka, with intensification after 2.5 ka. The expansion of local glaciers during the Little Ice Age represents the most extensive advance since 7 ka. We suggest that the replacement of Atlantic surface

  6. Potential impacts of climate change on infectious diseases in the Arctic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parkinson, Alan J; Butler, Jay C

    2005-12-01

    Climate change could cause changes in the incidence of infectious diseases in Arctic regions. Higher ambient temperatures in the Arctic may result in an increase in some temperature sensitive foodborne diseases such as gastroenteritis, paralytic shellfish poisoning and botulism. An increase in mean temperature may also influence the incidence of infectious diseases of animals that are spread to humans (zoonoses) by changing the population and range of animal hosts and insect vectors. An increase in flooding events may result in outbreaks of waterborne infection, such as Giardia lamblia or Cryptospordium parvum. A change in rodent and fox populations may result in an increase in rabies or echinococcosis. Temperature and humidity influence the distribution and density of many arthropod vectors which in turn may influence the incidence and northern range of vectorborne diseases such as West Nile virus. Recommendations include: the strenghtening of public health systems, disease surveillance coordinated with climate monitoring, and research into the detection, prevention, control and treatment of temperature-sensitive infectious diseases. PMID:16440610

  7. Changes in forcing factors affecting coastal and shallow water erosion in the future Arctic climate change projections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dobrynin, Mikhail; Razumov, Sergey; Brovkin, Victor; Ilyina, Tatiana; Grigoriev, Mikhail

    2016-04-01

    Driving factors of seabed and coastal erosion in the Arctic can be classified as thermal and mechanical. Thermal factors such as air and ocean temperatures affect the seabed and coastal ground temperatures. Mechanical factors such as ocean currents and surface gravity waves contribute to the seabed and costal erosion due to shear stress. Due to polar amplification, the Arctic experiences strong increase in air and water temperature, sea-ice loss and changes in the ocean and atmospheric circulation, temperature and wind distribution. These climatic changes lead to changes in factors driving seabed and coastal erosion, which is expected to accelerate in the shallow Arctic regions such as the Laptev sea and East Siberian sea. In these regions, the coastal line to a large extent consists of frozen rocks, sediments and organic soils including ground ice. The increase of erosion rate of the coastal line will increase the release of organic and inorganic matter from thawed permafrost. Dynamics of thermal and mechanical drivers of seabed and coastal erosion in the present and future climate change (RCP8.5 scenario) simulated by the CMIP5 version of the MPI Earth system model and wave model WAM will be presented. Special attention will be given to changes in the air temperature, wind dynamics and development of new waves system in the ``ice-free'' Arctic and its role in the seabed and coastal erosion.

  8. ARCTIC LEGAL SYSTEM: A N EW SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT MODEL

    OpenAIRE

    KUMAR SAHU MANJEET

    2016-01-01

    Historically, the term ‘Arctic’ was used synonymously with the term ‘ice’, but climate change and Arctic hydrocarbon grabbed the attention of the world community as an opportunity to make the Arctic an ‘Energy Hub’. Exploration of oil and gas over the past six decades in the Arctic has made the region as places in the world. All major players in the market have endeavored to approach this new energy basket to utilize its maximum benefit. Commercial exploitation of natural resources has made t...

  9. Transboundary approach proposal for sustainable and climate change adaptation strategies in the Arctic

    OpenAIRE

    Azcarate, Juan; Balfors, Berit; Destouni, Georgia; Bring, Arvid

    2012-01-01

    Introduction Decisions on the development of the Arctic should be given increased attention as its environmental, socio-economic and political circumstances are being significantly influenced by major trends that reinforce and support each other and together are causing long lasting transformations in the region. Increased strategic interest in the Arctic combined with rapid technological advances and climate change are leading to growing economic activities and natural resource extraction th...

  10. The Endangered Arctic, the Arctic as Resource Frontier: Canadian News Media Narratives of Climate Change and the North.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stoddart, Mark C J; Smith, Jillian

    2016-08-01

    The Arctic is one of the most radically altered parts of the world due to climate change, with significant social and cultural impacts as a result. Using discourse network analysis and qualitative textual analysis of articles published in the Globe and Mail and National Post during the period 2006 to 2010, we identify and analyze key frames that interpret the implications of climate change on the Arctic. We examine Canadian national news media coverage to ask: How does the Arctic enter media coverage of climate change? Is there evidence of a climate justice discourse in relation to regional disparities in the risks and harms of climate change between northern and southern Canada? Climate change in the Arctic is often framed through the lens of Canadian national interests, which downplays climate-related social impacts that are already occurring at subnational political and geographical scales. L'Arctique est une des régions du monde la plus radicalement altérée par le changement climatique, menant comme résultat des importants changements sociaux et culturels. En utilisant l'analyse des réseaux de discours ainsi que l'analyse textuelle qualitative des articles publiés dans le Globe and Mail et le National Post de 2006 à 2010, nous identifions and analysons des cadres clés qui servent à interpréter les conséquences du changement climatique dans l'Arctique. Nous examinons la couverture des médias nationaux canadiens pour pouvoir demander : comment est-ce que l'Arctique s'insère dans la couverture médiatique du changement climatique? Est-ce qu'il y a de la preuve d'un discours de la justice climatique en relation des disparités régionales des risques et méfaits du changement climatique entre le Canada du nord et du sud? Le changement climatique dans l'Arctique est souvent encadré à travers le prisme des intérêts nationaux canadiens, ce qui minimise les impacts sociaux reliés au climat qui se produisent actuellement aux échelons sous

  11. The Arctic Climate Modeling Program: K-12 Geoscience Professional Development for Rural Educators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertram, K. B.

    2009-12-01

    Helping teachers and students connect with scientists is the heart of the Arctic Climate Modeling Program (ACMP), funded from 2005-09 by the National Science Foundation’s Innovative Technology Experience for Students and Teachers. ACMP offered progressive yearlong science, technology and math (STM) professional development that prepared teachers to train youth in workforce technologies used in Arctic research. ACMP was created for the Bering Strait School District, a geographically isolated area with low standardized test scores, high dropout rates, and poverty. Scientists from around the globe have converged in this region and other areas of the Arctic to observe and measure changes in climate that are significant, accelerating, and unlike any in recorded history. Climate literacy (the ability to understand Earth system science and to make scientifically informed decisions about climate changes) has become essential for this population. Program resources were designed in collaboration with scientists to mimic the processes used to study Arctic climate. Because the Bering Strait School District serves a 98 percent Alaska Native student population, ACMP focused on best practices shown to increase the success of minority students. Significant research indicates that Alaska Native students succeed academically at higher rates when instruction addresses topics of local interest, links education to the students’ physical and cultural environment, uses local knowledge and culture in the curriculum, and incorporates hands-on, inquiry-based lessons in the classroom. A seven-partner consortium of research institutes and Alaska Native corporations created ACMP to help teachers understand their role in nurturing STM talent and motivating students to explore geoscience careers. Research underscores the importance of increasing school emphasis in content areas, such as climate, that facilitate global awareness and civic responsibility, and that foster critical thinking and

  12. Climatic anomalous patterns associated with the Arctic and Polar cell strength variations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qian, Weihong; Wu, Kaijun; Leung, Jeremy Cheuk-Hin

    2016-03-01

    The Arctic cell as a reversed and closed loop next to the Polar cell has been recently revealed in the Northern Hemisphere (NH). In this paper, we study the interannual variability of the Arctic and Polar cell strengths during 1979-2012, and their influence on surface air temperature (SAT), precipitation, and sea-ice concentration (SIC) at mid- and high-latitudes of the NH. We show that there is a significant negative correlation between the Arctic and Polar cell strengths. Both the Arctic and Polar cell strengths can well indicate the recurring climatic anomalies of SAT, precipitation, and SIC in their extreme winters. The surface large-scale cold-warm and dry-wet anomalous patterns in these extreme winters are directly linked with the vertical structure of height and temperature anomalies in the troposphere. Results suggest that the past climatic anomalies are better indicated by the strength anomalies of the Polar and Arctic cells than the traditional indices of mid-high latitude pattern such as the Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation. This study illustrates a three-dimensional picture of atmospheric variable anomalies in the troposphere that result in surface climatic anomalies.

  13. Using records from submarine, aircraft and satellite to evaluate climate model simulations of Arctic sea ice thickness

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Stroeve

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Arctic sea ice thickness distributions from models participating in the World Climate Research Programme Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 are evaluated against observations from submarines, aircraft and satellites. While it's encouraging that the mean thickness distributions from the models are in general agreement with observations, the spatial patterns of sea ice thickness are poorly represented in most models. The poor spatial representation of thickness patterns is associated with a failure of models to represent details of the mean atmospheric circulation pattern that governs the transport and spatial distribution of sea ice. The climate models as a whole also tend to underestimate the rate of ice volume loss from 1979 to 2013, though the multi-model ensemble mean trend remains within the uncertainty of that from the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System. These results raise concerns regarding the ability of CMIP5 models to realistically represent the processes driving the decline of Arctic sea ice and project the timing of when a seasonally ice-free Arctic may be realized.

  14. Modeling the Arctic freshwater system and its integration in the global system: Lessons learned and future challenges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lique, Camille; Holland, Marika M.; Dibike, Yonas B.; Lawrence, David M.; Screen, James A.

    2016-03-01

    Numerous components of the Arctic freshwater system (atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere, and terrestrial hydrology) have experienced large changes over the past few decades, and these changes are projected to amplify further in the future. Observations are particularly sparse, in both time and space, in the polar regions. Hence, modeling systems have been widely used and are a powerful tool to gain understanding on the functioning of the Arctic freshwater system and its integration within the global Earth system and climate. Here we present a review of modeling studies addressing some aspect of the Arctic freshwater system. Through illustrative examples, we point out the value of using a hierarchy of models with increasing complexity and component interactions, in order to dismantle the important processes at play for the variability and changes of the different components of the Arctic freshwater system and the interplay between them. We discuss past and projected changes for the Arctic freshwater system and explore the sources of uncertainty associated with these model results. We further elaborate on some missing processes that should be included in future generations of Earth system models and highlight the importance of better quantification and understanding of natural variability, among other factors, for improved predictions of Arctic freshwater system change.

  15. Climate Prediction Center Monthly(CPC)Arctic Oscillation Index

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Arctic Oscillation (AO) is a leading teleconnection pattern in the Northern Hemisphere circulation. It is calculated as the first Empirical Orthogonal Function...

  16. Climate Prediction Center(CPC)Daily Arctic Oscillation Index

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Arctic Oscillation (AO) is a leading teleconnection pattern in the Northern Hemisphere circulation. It is calculated as the first Empirical Orthogonal Function...

  17. DOE Final Report on Collaborative Research. Quantifying Climate Feedbacks of the Terrestrial Biosphere under Thawing Permafrost Conditions in the Arctic

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhuang, Qianlai [Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN (United States); Schlosser, C. Adam [Massachusetts Inst. of Technology (MIT), Cambridge, MA (United States); Melillo, Jerry M. [Marine Biological Lab. (MBL), Woods Hole, MA (United States); Anthony, Katey Walter [Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK (United States); Kicklighter, David [Marine Biological Lab. (MBL), Woods Hole, MA (United States); Gao, Xiang [Massachusetts Inst. of Technology (MIT), Cambridge, MA (United States)

    2015-11-03

    Our overall goal is to quantify the potential for threshold changes in natural emission rates of trace gases, particularly methane and carbon dioxide, from pan-arctic terrestrial systems under the spectrum of anthropogenically-forced climate warming, and the conditions under which these emissions provide a strong feedback mechanism to global climate warming. This goal is motivated under the premise that polar amplification of global climate warming will induce widespread thaw and degradation of the permafrost, and would thus cause substantial changes to the landscape of wetlands and lakes, especially thermokarst (thaw) lakes, across the Arctic. Through a suite of numerical experiments that encapsulate the fundamental processes governing methane emissions and carbon exchanges – as well as their coupling to the global climate system - we intend to test the following hypothesis in the proposed research: There exists a climate warming threshold beyond which permafrost degradation becomes widespread and stimulates large increases in methane emissions (via thermokarst lakes and poorly-drained wetland areas upon thawing permafrost along with microbial metabolic responses to higher temperatures) and increases in carbon dioxide emissions from well-drained areas. Besides changes in biogeochemistry, this threshold will also influence global energy dynamics through effects on surface albedo, evapotranspiration and water vapor. These changes would outweigh any increased uptake of carbon (e.g. from peatlands and higher plant photosynthesis) and would result in a strong, positive feedback to global climate warming.

  18. Response of Arctic temperature to changes in emissions of short-lived climate forcers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sand, M.; Berntsen, T. K.; von Salzen, K.; Flanner, M. G.; Langner, J.; Victor, D. G.

    2016-03-01

    There is growing scientific and political interest in the impacts of climate change and anthropogenic emissions on the Arctic. Over recent decades temperatures in the Arctic have increased at twice the global rate, largely as a result of ice-albedo and temperature feedbacks. Although deep cuts in global CO2 emissions are required to slow this warming, there is also growing interest in the potential for reducing short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs; refs ,). Politically, action on SLCFs may be particularly promising because the benefits of mitigation are seen more quickly than for mitigation of CO2 and there are large co-benefits in terms of improved air quality. This Letter is one of the first to systematically quantify the Arctic climate impact of regional SLCFs emissions, taking into account black carbon (BC), sulphur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx), volatile organic compounds (VOCs), organic carbon (OC) and tropospheric ozone (O3), and their transport processes and transformations in the atmosphere. This study extends the scope of previous works by including more detailed calculations of Arctic radiative forcing and quantifying the Arctic temperature response. We find that the largest Arctic warming source is from emissions within the Asian nations owing to the large absolute amount of emissions. However, the Arctic is most sensitive, per unit mass emitted, to SLCFs emissions from a small number of activities within the Arctic nations themselves. A stringent, but technically feasible mitigation scenario for SLCFs, phased in from 2015 to 2030, could cut warming by 0.2 (+/-0.17) K in 2050.

  19. Arctic sea ice area in CMIP3 and CMIP5 climate model ensembles – variability and change

    OpenAIRE

    V. A. Semenov; Martin, T.; Behrens, L. K.; M Latif

    2015-01-01

    The shrinking Arctic sea ice cover observed during the last decades is probably the clearest manifestation of ongoing climate change. While climate models in general reproduce the sea ice retreat in the Arctic during the 20th century and simulate further sea ice area loss during the 21st century in response to anthropogenic forcing, the models suffer from large biases and the model results exhibit considerable spread. The last generation of climate models from World Climate Research ...

  20. Ecological risk analysis as a key factor in environmental safety system development in the Arctic region of the Russian Federation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Due to specific natural and climatic conditions combined with human intervention, the Arctic is regarded as a highly sensitive region to any environmental pressures. Arctic projects require continuous environmental monitoring. This poses for the government of the Russian Federation (RF) a tremendous task concerning the formation and implementation of sustainable nature management policy within the international framework. The current article examines the basic constraints to the effective ecological safety system implementation in the Arctic region of the RF. The ecological risks and their effects which influence the sustainable development of the region were analyzed. The model of complex environmental safety system was proposed

  1. Late Holocene Peat Growth at the Northern Siberian Periphery and its Relation to Arctic Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauch, H. A.; Abramova, E.; Alenius, T.; Saarnisto, M.

    2014-12-01

    During the last postglacial evolution of the shallow northern Siberian shelf systems regional sea level in the Arctic came to its Holocene highstand some time between 5 to 6 ka. After that time a general stabilization of the sedimentary regime occurred. That is well noted in a drastic decrease in sedimentation rates observed in all sediment cores taken from middle to outer shelf water depths of the Laptev Sea. But, at water depths lower than 30 meters - i.e., in the inner shelf and nearer to the coasts - sedimentation continued at relatively higher rates, presumably due to input of terrigenous material from river runoff as well as coastal erosion. Compared with that latter process, the huge Lena Delta should comprise a region of sediment catchment where aggradation wins over erosion. However, little is known about the detailed history of this delta during the second half of the Holocene. In order to gain more insight into this issue we have investigated three islands within the Lena Delta. All of these are comprised of massive peat of several meters in thickness. Picking discrete specimens of water mosses (Sphagnum) only, we have radiocarbon-dated these peat sections. The depth/age relation of the sampled profiles reflect the growth rate of peat. It shows that the islands' history above the present-day delta-sea level is about 4000 yrs. old. Moreover, a significant change in peat growth occurred after 2500 yrs BP in both, accumulation and composition, and allows the conclusion of a major shift in Arctic environmental conditions since then. Thus, our results may add further information also for other coastal studies, as the ongoing degradation of the rather vulnerable permafrost coast in the Laptev Sea and elsewhere along the North Siberian margin is often mentioned in context with recent Arctic climate change due to global warming.

  2. Arctic wind energy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Peltola, E. [Kemijoki Oy (Finland); Holttinen, H.; Marjaniemi, M. [VTT Energy, Espoo (Finland); Tammelin, B. [Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki (Finland)

    1998-12-31

    Arctic wind energy research was aimed at adapting existing wind technologies to suit the arctic climatic conditions in Lapland. Project research work included meteorological measurements, instrument development, development of a blade heating system for wind turbines, load measurements and modelling of ice induced loads on wind turbines, together with the development of operation and maintenance practices in arctic conditions. As a result the basis now exists for technically feasible and economically viable wind energy production in Lapland. New and marketable products, such as blade heating systems for wind turbines and meteorological sensors for arctic conditions, with substantial export potential, have also been developed. (orig.)

  3. Arctic wind energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arctic wind energy research was aimed at adapting existing wind technologies to suit the arctic climatic conditions in Lapland. Project research work included meteorological measurements, instrument development, development of a blade heating system for wind turbines, load measurements and modelling of ice induced loads on wind turbines, together with the development of operation and maintenance practices in arctic conditions. As a result the basis now exists for technically feasible and economically viable wind energy production in Lapland. New and marketable products, such as blade heating systems for wind turbines and meteorological sensors for arctic conditions, with substantial export potential, have also been developed. (orig.)

  4. Assessing climate impacts and risks of ocean albedo modification in the Arctic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mengis, N.; Martin, T.; Keller, D. P.; Oschlies, A.

    2016-05-01

    The ice albedo feedback is one of the key factors of accelerated temperature increase in the high northern latitudes under global warming. This study assesses climate impacts and risks of idealized Arctic Ocean albedo modification (AOAM), a proposed climate engineering method, during transient climate change simulations with varying representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios. We find no potential for reversing trends in all assessed Arctic climate metrics under increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations. AOAM only yields an initial offset during the first years after implementation. Nevertheless, sea ice loss can be delayed by 25(60) years in the RCP8.5(RCP4.5) scenario and the delayed thawing of permafrost soils in the AOAM simulations prevents up to 40(32) Pg of carbon from being released by 2100. AOAM initially dampens the decline of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning and delays the onset of open ocean deep convection in the Nordic Seas under the RCP scenarios. Both these processes cause a subsurface warming signal in the AOAM simulations relative to the default RCP simulations with the potential to destabilize Arctic marine gas hydrates. Furthermore, in 2100, the RCP8.5 AOAM simulation diverts more from the 2005-2015 reference state in many climate metrics than the RCP4.5 simulation without AOAM. Considering the demonstrated risks, we conclude that concerning longer time scales, reductions in emissions remain the safest and most effective way to prevent severe changes in the Arctic.

  5. Recent Progress Towards Establishing an Arctic Ocean Observing System - A NOAA Contribution to the Study of Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rigor, I. G.; Richter-Menge, J.; Calder, J.

    2004-12-01

    SEARCH is a coordinated, interagency program focused on understanding the full scope of changes taking place in the Arctic and to determine if the changes indicate the start of a major climate shift in this region. NOAA has initiated its contribution to the SEARCH program with seed activities that address high priority issues relating to the atmosphere and the cryosphere. One element of the NOAA SEARCH program is an Arctic Ocean Observing System. This presentation describes the recent progress made in establishing components of this observing system, specifically the deployment of drifting ice mass balance mass (IMB) and ocean buoys and a seafloor mooring equipped with ice profiling sonar (IPS). We present examples of data collected from the drifting buoys, show the location of equipment deployed in 2003, the planned deployments for 2004, and describe other historic observations of changes in the thickness of the sea ice cover. Combined, these data are being used to monitor changes in the thickness of the Arctic sea ice cover and in near surface ocean characteristics.

  6. Response of Arctic Temperature to Changes in Emissions of Short-Lived Climate Forcers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sand, M.; Berntsen, T.; von Salzen, K.; Flanner, M.; Langner, J.; Victor, D. G.

    2015-12-01

    There is growing scientific and political interest in the impacts of climate change and anthropogenic emissions on the Arctic. Over recent decades temperatures in the Arctic have increased twice the global rate, largely due to ice albedo and temperature feedbacks. While deep cuts in global CO2 emissions are required to slow this warming, there is also growing interest in the potential for reducing short lived climate forcers (SLCFs). Politically, action on SLCFs may be particularly promising because the benefits of mitigation appear promptly and there are large co-benefits in terms of improved air quality. This study is the first to systematically quantify the Arctic climate impact of regional SLCF emissions, taking into account BC, sulphur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx), volatile hydrocarbons (VOC), organic carbon (OC) and tropospheric ozone, their transport processes and transformations in the atmosphere. Using several chemical transport models we perform detailed radiative forcing calculations from emissions of these species. Geographically we separate emissions into seven source regions that correspond with the national groupings of the Arctic Council, the leading body organizing international policy in the region (the United States, Canada, the Nordic countries, the rest of Europe, Russia, East and South Asia, and the rest of the world). We look at six main sectors known to account for [nearly all] of these emissions: households (domestic), energy/industry/waste, transport, agricultural fires, grass/forest fires, and gas flaring. We find that the largest Arctic warming source is from emissions within the Asian nations. However, the Arctic is most sensitive, per unit mass emitted, to SLCFs emissions from a small number of activities within the Arctic nations themselves. A stringent, but technically feasible SLCFs mitigation scenario, phased in from 2015 through 2030, can cut warming by 0.2 K in 2050.

  7. Interannual climate variations in Arctic as driven by the Global atmosphere oscillation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serykh, Ilya; Byshev, Vladimir; Neiman, Victor; Sidorova, Alexandra; Sonechkin, Dmitry

    2015-04-01

    The present-day global climate change affects the Arctic basin substantially more because of the sea ice cover extinction and the permafrost melting. But there are essential variations of these effects from year to year. We believe that these variations might be a regional manifestation of a planetary-scale phenomenon named the Global atmospheric oscillation (GAO). GAO includes the well-known El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) process and similar processes in equatorial Atlantic and Indian Oceans within itself. The goal of this report is to present some arguments to support this point of view. For this goal, we have studied some interrelations between the above-mentioned Arctic anomalies and GAO as seen in global re-analyses of the sea level pressure (SLP) and near surface temperature (NST) for the period of 1920-2013. The mean global fields of SLP and NST have been computed for all El Niño events falling into this time period, and separately, for all and La Niña events. As a result, two (for SLP and NST as well) global fields of the mean El Niño/La Niña difference were obtained. Statistical significance of the non-zero values of these fields, i.e. the reality of GAO, was evaluated with the t-Student's test. It turned out that the main spatial structures of GAO, presented specifically by El Niño and La Niña events in Pacific region, exist at a very high level (up to 99%, t>4) of the significance. Therefore, one can conclude that the interannual-scale dynamics of GAO is actually reflected in the climate features of different regions of the Earth, including the Russian Arctic. In particular, when the boreal winter season coincides with an El Niño event GAO is indicative by a negative anomaly of NST (about -1°C) and a positive anomaly of SLP over the Arctic basin. In contrary, significant (about +1°C) positive anomaly of NST along with reduced SLP over the whole Arctic region is typical for any La Niña event (up to 95%, t>2). To control the reliability

  8. Biodiversity of Arctic marine ecosystems and responses to climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Michel, C.; Bluhm, B.; Gallucci, V.;

    2012-01-01

    The Arctic Ocean is undergoing major changes in many of its fundamental physical constituents, from a shift from multi- to first-year ice, shorter ice-covered periods, increasing freshwater runoff and surface stratification, to warming and alteration in the distribution of water masses. These cha...

  9. Does Change in the Arctic Sea Ice Indicate Climate Change? A Lesson Using Geospatial Technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bock, Judith K.

    2011-01-01

    The Arctic sea ice has not since melted to the 2007 extent, but annual summer melt extents do continue to be less than the decadal average. Climate fluctuations are well documented by geologic records. Averages are usually based on a minimum of 10 years of averaged data. It is typical for fluctuations to occur from year to year and season to…

  10. Arctic Shrub Growth Response to Climate Variation and Infrastructure Development on the North Slope of Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ackerman, D.; Finlay, J. C.; Griffin, D.

    2015-12-01

    Woody shrub growth in the arctic tundra is increasing on a circumpolar scale. Shrub expansion alters land-atmosphere carbon fluxes, nutrient cycling, and habitat structure. Despite these ecosystem effects, the drivers of shrub expansion have not been precisely established at the landscape scale. This project examined two proposed anthropogenic drivers: global climate change and local infrastructure development, a press disturbance that generates high levels of dust deposition. Effects of global change were studied using dendrochronology to establish a relationship between climate and annual growth in Betula and Salix shrubs growing in the Alaskan low Arctic. To understand the spatial heterogeneity of shrub expansion, this analysis was replicated in shrub populations across levels of landscape properties including soil moisture and substrate age. Effects of dust deposition on normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and photosynthetic rate were measured on transects up to 625 meters from the Dalton Highway. Dust deposition rates decreased exponentially with distance from road, matching previous models of road dust deposition. NDVI tracked deposition rates closely, but photosynthetic rates were not strongly affected by deposition. These results suggest that dust deposition may locally bias remote sensing measurements such as NDVI, without altering internal physiological processes such as photosynthesis in arctic shrubs. Distinguishing between the effects of landscape properties, climate, and disturbance will improve our predictions of the biogeochemical feedbacks of arctic shrub expansion, with potential application in climate change modeling.

  11. Rethinking Greenland and the Arctic in the Era of Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sejersen, Frank

    This book investigates how Arctic indigenous communities deal with the challenges of climate change and how they strive to develop self-determination. Adopting an anthropological focus on Greenland’s vision to boost extractive industries and transform society, the book examines how indigenous com...

  12. Key Findings of the AMAP 2015 Assessment on Black Carbon and Tropospheric Ozone as Arctic Climate Forcers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quinn, P.

    2015-12-01

    The Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP) established an Expert Group on Short-Lived Climate Forcers (SLCFs) in 2009 with the goal of reviewing the state of science surrounding SLCFs in the Arctic and recommending science tasks to improve the state of knowledge and its application to policy-making. In 2011, the result of the Expert Group's work was published in a technical report entitled The Impact of Black Carbon on Arctic Climate (AMAP, 2011). That report focused entirely on black carbon (BC) and co-emitted organic carbon (OC). The SLCFs Expert Group then expanded its scope to include all species co-emitted with BC as well as tropospheric ozone. An assessment report, entitled Black Carbon and Tropospheric Ozone as Arctic Climate Forcers, was published in 2015. The assessment includes summaries of measurement methods and emissions inventories of SLCFs, atmospheric transport of SLCFs to and within the Arctic, modeling methods for estimating the impact of SLCFs on Arctic climate, model-measurement inter-comparisons, trends in concentrations of SLCFs in the Arctic, and a literature review of Arctic radiative forcing and climate response. In addition, three Chemistry Climate Models and five Chemistry Transport Models were used to calculate Arctic burdens of SLCFs and precursors species, radiative forcing, and Arctic temperature response to the forcing. Radiative forcing was calculated for the direct atmospheric effect of BC, BC-snow/ice effect, and cloud indirect effects. Forcing and temperature response associated with different source sectors (Domestic, Energy+Industry+Waste, Transport, Agricultural waste burning, Forest fires, and Flaring) and source regions (United States, Canada, Russia, Nordic Countries, Rest of Europe, East and South Asia, Arctic, mid-latitudes, tropics, southern hemisphere) were calculated. To enable an evaluation of the cost-effectiveness of regional emission mitigation options, the normalized impacts (i.e., impacts per unit

  13. Wave climate in the Arctic 1992-2014: seasonality, trends, and wave-ice influence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Girard-Ardhuin, Fanny; Stopa, Justin; Ardhuin, Fabrice

    2016-04-01

    The diminishing sea ice has direct implications on the wave field which is mainly dependent on the ice-free area and wind. Over the past decade, the Arctic sea ice has diminished which directly impacts the wave field. This study characterizes the wave climate in the Arctic using detailed sea state information from a wave hindcast and merged altimeter dataset spanning 1992-2014. The waves are driven by winds from the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis. Ice concentrations derived from satellites with a grid spacing of 12.5 km are sufficiently able to resolve important features in the marginal ice zone. Before implementation, suitable wind forcing is identified and the validity and consistency of the wave hindcast is verified with altimeters. The seasonal ice advance and retreat largely dictates the waves and creates distinct features in the wind-waves and swells. The Nordic-Greenland Sea is dominated by swells from the North Atlantic while the coastal regions and semi-enclosed seas of the Kara, Laptev, Chukchi, and Beaufort have a more equal proportion of wind-waves and swells. Trends in the altimeters and model are in agreement and show increasing wave activities in the Baffin Bay, Beaufort, Chukchi, Laptev, and Kara Seas due to the loss of sea ice. In the Nordic-Greenland Sea, there is a decreasing trend related to changes in the wind field by North Atlantic Oscillation. The waves also influence the sea ice. Two distinctly different wave-ice environments are identified and selected events demonstrate the importance of waves in the marginal ice zone. The crux of the research identifies the need for continued study and improvement of wave-ice interaction.

  14. Observational uncertainty of Arctic sea-ice concentration significantly affects seasonal climate forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bunzel, Felix; Notz, Dirk; Baehr, Johanna; Müller, Wolfgang; Fröhlich, Kristina

    2016-04-01

    We examine how the choice of a particular satellite-retrieved sea-ice concentration dataset used for initialising seasonal climate forecasts impacts the prediction skill of Arctic sea-ice area and Northern hemispheric 2-meter air temperatures. To do so, we performed two assimilation runs with the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) from 1979 to 2012, where atmospheric and oceanic parameters as well as sea-ice concentration were assimilated using Newtonian relaxation. The two assimilation runs differ only in the sea-ice concentration dataset used for assimilating sea ice. In the first run, we use sea-ice concentrations as derived by the NASA-Team algorithm, while in the second run we use sea-ice concentrations as derived from the Bootstrap algorithm. A major difference between these two sea-ice concentration data products involves the treatment of melt ponds. While for both products melt ponds appear as open water in the raw satellite data, the Bootstrap algorithm more strongly attempts to offset this systematic bias by synthetically increasing the retrieved ice concentration during summer months. For each year of the two assimilation runs we performed a 10-member ensemble of hindcast experiments starting on 1 May and 1 November with a hindcast length of 6 months. For hindcasts started in November, initial differences in Arctic sea-ice area and surface temperature decrease rapidly throughout the freezing period. For hindcasts started in May, initial sea-ice area differences increase over time. By the end of the melting period, this causes significant differences in 2-meter air temperature of regionally more than 3°C. Hindcast skill for surface temperatures over Europe and North America is higher with Bootstrap initialization during summer and with NASA Team initialisation during winter. This implies that the choice of the sea-ice data product and, thus, the observational uncertainty also affects forecasts of teleconnections that depend on Northern

  15. Climate change and environmental impacts on maternal and newborn health with focus on Arctic populations

    OpenAIRE

    Rylander, Charlotta; Odland, Jon Ø; Sandanger, Torkjel M.

    2011-01-01

    Background: In 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) presented a report on global warming and the impact of human activities on global warming. Later the Lancet commission identified six ways human health could be affected. Among these were not environmental factors which are also believed to be important for human health. In this paper we therefore focus on environmental factors, climate change and the predicted effects on maternal and newborn health. Arctic issues are d...

  16. Climate change and environmental impacts on maternal and newborn health with focus on Arctic populations.

    OpenAIRE

    Rylander, Charlotta; Odland, Jon Øyvind; Sandanger, Torkjel Manning

    2011-01-01

    In 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) presented a report on global warming and the impact of human activities on global warming. Later the Lancet commission identified six ways human health could be affected. Among these were not environmental factors which are also believed to be important for human health. In this paper we therefore focus on environmental factors, climate change and the predicted effects on maternal and newborn health. Arctic issues are discussed ...

  17. Scenarios of 21st-century trans-Arctic shipping for climate studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephenson, S. R.; Davis, S. J.; Zender, C. S.; Smith, L. C.

    2013-12-01

    Receding Arctic sea ice coupled with increased resource demand in east Asia have recast the Arctic as an international trade space facilitating export of petroleum and minerals and offering potential alternative pathways for global maritime trade. Several studies have examined the future impact of increased vessel traffic in the Arctic on emissions of greenhouse gases and black carbon (BC); however, the net impact of these emissions on climate forcing in the region is not well understood. Here we present several scenarios of 21st-century trans-Arctic shipping for climate studies. Vessel transits between 5 east Asian ports (Tianjin, Shanghai, Hong Kong, Tokyo/Yokohama, Busan) and 2 European ports (Rotterdam, Hamburg) are estimated from 2010-2050 according to projected sea ice concentration and thickness, trends in cargo export volumes, and vessel ice class and cargo capacity. Sea ice data are represented by a 7-model ensemble mean from CMIP5 under two forcing scenarios (RCP 4.5/8.5). Emissions presented (CO2, CH4, N2O, NOx, SOx, BC) are obtained by convolving projected transits with trends in emissions factors. Results illustrate a range of emissions inventories for the Arctic owing to differences in vessel accessibility, trade volume, routes, and fuel mixtures.

  18. Climate change alters the structure of arctic marine food webs due to poleward shifts of boreal generalists

    OpenAIRE

    Kortsch, Susanne; Primicerio, Raul; Fossheim, Maria; Dolgov, Andrey V.; Aschan, Michaela

    2015-01-01

    Climate-driven poleward shifts, leading to changes in species composition and relative abundances, have been recently documented in the Arctic. Among the fastest moving species are boreal generalist fish which are expected to affect arctic marine food web structure and ecosystem functioning substantially. Here, we address structural changes at the food web level induced by poleward shifts via topological network analysis of highly resolved boreal and arctic food webs of the ...

  19. Projected Impact of Climate Change on the Water and Salt Budgets of the Arctic Ocean by a Global Climate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, James R.; Russell, Gary L.

    1996-01-01

    The annual flux of freshwater into the Arctic Ocean by the atmosphere and rivers is balanced by the export of sea ice and oceanic freshwater. Two 150-year simulations of a global climate model are used to examine how this balance might change if atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs) increase. Relative to the control, the last 50-year period of the GHG experiment indicates that the total inflow of water from the atmosphere and rivers increases by 10% primarily due to an increase in river discharge, the annual sea-ice export decreases by about half, the oceanic liquid water export increases, salinity decreases, sea-ice cover decreases, and the total mass and sea-surface height of the Arctic Ocean increase. The closed, compact, and multi-phased nature of the hydrologic cycle in the Arctic Ocean makes it an ideal test of water budgets that could be included in model intercomparisons.

  20. Tourism and Arctic Observation Systems : exploring the relationships

    OpenAIRE

    de la Barre, Suzanne; Maher, Patrick; Dawson, Jackie; Hillmer-Pegram, Kevin; Huijbens, Edward; Lamers, Machiel; Liggett, Daniela; Müller, Dieter; Pashkevich, Albina; Stewart, Emma

    2016-01-01

    The Arctic is affected by global environmental change and also by diverse interests from many economic sectors and industries. Over the last decade, various actors have attempted to explore the options for setting up integrated and comprehensive trans-boundary systems for monitoring and observing these impacts. These Arctic Observation Systems (AOS) contribute to the planning, implementation, monitoring and evaluation of environmental change and responsible social and economic development in ...

  1. Tourism and Arctic Observation Systems: exploring the relationships

    OpenAIRE

    Barre, de la, Suzanne; Maher, Patrick; Dawson, Jackie; Hillmer-Pegram, Kevin; Huijbens, Edward; Lamers, M.A.J.; Liggett, D.; Müller, D.; Pashkevich, A.; Stewart, Emma

    2016-01-01

    The Arctic is affected by global environmental change and also by diverse interests from many economic sectors and industries. Over the last decade, various actors have attempted to explore the options for setting up integrated and comprehensive trans-boundary systems for monitoring and observing these impacts. These Arctic Observation Systems (AOS) contribute to the planning, implementation, monitoring and evaluation of environmental change and responsible social and economic development in ...

  2. Evaluating observed and projected future climate changes for the Arctic using the Koeppen-Trewartha climate classification

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Feng, Song [University of Nebraska-Lincoln, School of Natural Resources, Lincoln, NE (United States); Ho, Chang-Hoi; Jeong, Su-Jong [Seoul National University, School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Hu, Qi; Oglesby, Robert J. [University of Nebraska-Lincoln, School of Natural Resources, Lincoln, NE (United States); University of Nebraska-Lincoln, Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Lincoln, NE (United States); Kim, Baek-Min [Korea Polar Research Institute, Incheon (Korea, Republic of)

    2012-04-15

    The ecosystems in the Arctic region are known to be very sensitive to climate changes. The accelerated warming for the past several decades has profoundly influenced the lives of the native populations and ecosystems in the Arctic. Given that the Koeppen-Trewartha (K-T) climate classification is based on reliable variations of land-surface types (especially vegetation), this study used the K-T scheme to evaluate climate changes and their impact on vegetation for the Arctic (north of 50 N) by analyzing observations as well as model simulations for the period 1900-2099. The models include 16 fully coupled global climate models from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment. By the end of this century, the annual-mean surface temperature averaged over Arctic land regions is projected to increase by 3.1, 4.6 and 5.3 C under the Special Report on Emissions Scenario (SRES) B1, A1b, and A2 emission scenarios, respectively. Increasing temperature favors a northward expansion of temperate climate (i.e., Dc and Do in the K-T classification) and boreal oceanic climate (i.e., Eo) types into areas previously covered by boreal continental climate (i.e., Ec) and tundra; and tundra into areas occupied by permanent ice. The tundra region is projected to shrink by -1.86 x 10{sup 6} km{sup 2} (-33.0%) in B1, -2.4 x 10{sup 6} km{sup 2} (-42.6%) in A1b, and -2.5 x 10{sup 6} km{sup 2} (-44.2%) in A2 scenarios by the end of this century. The Ec climate type retreats at least 5 poleward of its present location, resulting in -18.9, -30.2, and -37.1% declines in areal coverage under the B1, A1b and A2 scenarios, respectively. The temperate climate types (Dc and Do) advance and take over the area previously covered by Ec. The area covered by Dc climate expands by 4.61 x 10{sup 6} km{sup 2} (84.6%) in B1, 6.88 x 10{sup 6} km{sup 2} (126.4%) in A1b, and 8.16 x 10{sup 6} km{sup 2} (149.6%) in A2 scenarios. The projected redistributions of K-T climate types also differ

  3. Climate Change Impacts on Environmental and Human Exposure to Mercury in the Arctic

    OpenAIRE

    Kyrre Sundseth; Pacyna, Jozef M.; Anna Banel; Pacyna, Elisabeth G; Arja Rautio

    2015-01-01

    This paper reviews information from the literature and the EU ArcRisk project to assess whether climate change results in an increase or decrease in exposure to mercury (Hg) in the Arctic, and if this in turn will impact the risks related to its harmful effects. It presents the state-of-the art of knowledge on atmospheric mercury emissions from anthropogenic sources worldwide, the long-range transport to the Arctic, and it discusses the likely environmental fate and exposure effects on popul...

  4. Globalization and climate change challenges the Arctic communities adaptability and increases vulnerability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hendriksen, Kåre

    2011-01-01

    Globalization and climate change challenges the Arctic communities adaptability and increases vulnerability Kåre Hendriksen, PhD student, Aalborg University, Denmark The previous isolation of the Arctic will change as a wide range of areas increasingly are integrated into the globalized world....... Coinciding climate changes cause an easier access for worldwide market as well as for the extraction of coastal oil and mineral resources. In an attempt to optimize the fishing fleet by economic measures it is centralized to larger units, and the exports of unprocessed fish and shellfish to low wage...... countries, carrying out the processing before export, are increasing. Although the local populations often are able to adapt to climate change and exploit new seasonal fluxions and species, these developments leaves a series of smaller settlements without proper basis for commercially viable activities and...

  5. Eurasian Arctic climate over the past millennium as recorded in the Akademii Nauk ice core (Severnaya Zemlya

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Opel

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available The chronology of the Akademii Nauk (AN ice core from Severnaya Zemlya (SZ has been expanded to the last 1100 yr. Here, we present the easternmost high-resolution ice-core climate-proxy records (δ18O and sodium from the Arctic that provide new perspectives on past climate fluctuations in the Barents and Kara seas region. Multi-annual AN δ18O data as near-surface air-temperature proxy reveal major temperature changes over the last millennium, including the absolute minimum around 1800 and the exceptional warming to a double-peak maximum in the early 20th century. Neither a pronounced Medieval Climate Anomaly nor a Little Ice Age are detectable in the AN δ18O record. In contrast, there is evidence for several abrupt warming and cooling events such as in the 15th and 16th centuries. These abrupt changes are probably caused by shifts in the atmospheric circulation patterns and accompanied sea-ice feedbacks in the Barents and Kara seas region that highlight the role of the internal variability of the Arctic climate system.

  6. Polar cloud observatory at Ny-Ålesund in GRENE Arctic Climate Change Research Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamanouchi, Takashi; Takano, Toshiaki; Shiobara, Masataka; Okamoto, Hajime; Koike, Makoto; Ukita, Jinro

    2016-04-01

    Cloud is one of the main processes in the climate system and especially a large feed back agent for Arctic warming amplification (Yoshimori et al., 2014). From this reason, observation of polar cloud has been emphasized and 95 GHz cloud profiling radar in high precision was established at Ny-Ålesund, Svalbard in 2013 as one of the basic infrastructure in the GRENE (Green Network of Excellence Program) Arctic Climate Change Research Project. The radar, "FALCON-A", is a FM-CW (frequency modulated continuous wave) Doppler radar, developed for Arctic use by Chiba University (PI: T. Takano) in 2012, following its prototype, "FALCON-1" which was developed in 2006 (Takano et al., 2010). The specifications of the radar are, central frequency: 94.84 GHz; antenna power: 1 W; observation height: up to 15 km; range resolution: 48 m; beam width: 0.2 degree (15 m at 5 km); Doppler width: 3.2 m/s; time interval: 10 sec, and capable of archiving high sensitivity and high spatial and time resolution. An FM-CW type radar realizes similar sensitivity with much smaller parabolic antennas separated 1.4 m from each other used for transmitting and receiving the wave. Polarized Micro-Pulse Lidar (PMPL, Sigma Space MPL-4B-IDS), which is capable to measure the backscatter and depolarization ratio, has also been deployed to Ny-Ålesund in March 2012, and now operated to perform collocated measurements with FALCON-A. Simultaneous measurement data from collocated PMPL and FALCON-A are available for synergetic analyses of cloud microphysics. Cloud mycrophysics, such as effective radius of ice particles and ice water content, are obtained from the analysis based on algorithm, which is modified for ground-based measurements from Okamoto's retrieval algorithm for satellite based cloud profiling radar and lidar (CloudSat and CALIPSO; Okamoto et al., 2010). Results of two years will be shown in the presentation. Calibration is a point to derive radar reflectivity (dBZ) from original intensity data

  7. Sensitivity of Pliocene Arctic climate to orbital forcing, atmospheric CO2 and sea ice albedo parameterisation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howell, Fergus W.; Haywood, Alan M.; Dowsett, Harry J.; Pickering, Steven J.

    2016-01-01

    General circulation model (GCM) simulations of the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP, 3.264 to 3.025 Myr ago) do not reproduce the magnitude of Northern Hemisphere high latitude surface air and sea surface temperature (SAT and SST) warming that proxy data indicate. There is also large uncertainty regarding the state of sea ice cover in the mPWP. Evidence for both perennial and seasonal mPWP Arctic sea ice is found through analyses of marine sediments, whilst in a multi-model ensemble of mPWP climate simulations, half of the ensemble simulated ice-free summer Arctic conditions. Given the strong influence that sea ice exerts on high latitude temperatures, an understanding of the nature of mPWP Arctic sea ice would be highly beneficial.

  8. Arctic Legal System: a New Sustainable Development Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kumar Sahu Manjeet

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Historically, the term ‘Arctic’ was used synonymously with the term ‘ice’, but climate change and Arctic hydrocarbon grabbed the attention of the world community as an opportunity to make the Arctic an ‘Energy Hub’. Exploration of oil and gas over the past six decades in the Arctic has made the region as places in the world. All major players in the market have endeavored to approach this new energy basket to utilize its maximum benefit. Commercial exploitation of natural resources has made this place a center for the regulation of oil and gas activities. However, petroleum exploration and its operation have had significant local detrimental impacts on the atmosphere, inhabitants and marine environment. Geologists have always believed in the huge reserves of oil and gas in the Arctic Region. However, the exploration of oil and gas started as recently as the mid-1950s. An increase in the demand of oil and gas in the international market, as well as its growing scarcity, compelled the world to locate oil and gas reserves in various regions. It is significant to note that the Arctic states are strategically going to control the excessive exploitation of Arctic hydrocarbon with much profitability. However, it is still a far sighted question ‘whether Arctic will provide direct competition to the Middle East’ and become another hub in the energy market.

  9. Intrinsic Versus Forced Variation in Coupled Climate Model Simulations of the Arctic Temperature during the 20th Century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, M.; Overland, J. E.; Kattsov, V.; Walsh, J. E.; Zhang, X.

    2010-12-01

    The two multi-year periods of winter time Arctic-wide (60-90°N) warm temperature anomalies (> 0.7°C) in the 20th century have recently received considerable attention in the scientific community. Reproducing these multi-year anomalies in coupled climate models, which constitutes CMIP3 archive, is a critical test to understand processes responsible for and increasing the confidence in the IPCC model projections of Arctic climate system changes. Our study evaluated all available realizations generated by CMIP3 models made available for the IPCC 4th Assessment (AR4), including 20th century simulations (20C3M) and corresponding control runs (PIcntr). Warm anomalies in the Arctic during the last two decades are reproduced by all ensemble members, with considerable variability in amplitude among models. In contrast only eight models, among which there are at least one realization in each model, generated warm anomalies with comparable amplitude (but not the timing) of the observed early-century warm event. The early-century warm events in all the models have decadal timescales, while that of the observed was multidecadal. The variance of the control runs in nine models was comparable with the variance in the observations. The random timing of early-century warm anomalies in 20C3M simulations and the similar variance of the control runs in about half of the models suggest that the observed mid-century warm period is consistent with intrinsic climate variability. Our results support selecting a subset of GCMs when making projections for future climate by using performance criteria based on comparison with retrospective data, characteristics of variability as well as means.

  10. Biogeophysical feedbacks enhance Arctic terrestrial carbon sink in regional Earth system dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Zhang

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Continued warming of the Arctic will likely accelerate terrestrial carbon (C cycling by increasing both uptake and release of C. There are still large uncertainties in modelling Arctic terrestrial ecosystems as a source or sink of C. Most modelling studies assessing or projecting the future fate of C exchange with the atmosphere are based an either stand-alone process-based models or coupled climate–C cycle general circulation models, in either case disregarding biogeophysical feedbacks of land surface changes to the atmosphere. To understand how biogeophysical feedbacks will impact on both climate and C budget over Arctic terrestrial ecosystems, we apply the regional Earth system model RCA-GUESS over the CORDEX-Arctic domain. The model is forced with lateral boundary conditions from an GCMs CMIP5 climate projection under the RCP 8.5 scenario. We perform two simulations with or without interactive vegetation dynamics respectively to assess the impacts of biogeophysical feedbacks. Both simulations indicate that Arctic terrestrial ecosystems will continue to sequester C with an increased uptake rate until 2060s–2070s, after which the C budget will return to a weak C sink as increased soil respiration and biomass burning outpaces increased net primary productivity. The additional C sinks arising from biogeophysical feedbacks are considerable, around 8.5 Gt C, accounting for 22% of the total C sinks, of which 83.5% are located in areas of Arctic tundra. Two opposing feedback mechanisms, mediated by albedo and evapotranspiration changes respectively, contribute to this response. Albedo feedback dominates over winter and spring season, amplifying the near-surface warming by up to 1.35 K in spring, while evapotranspiration feedback dominates over summer exerting the evaporative cooling by up to 0.81 K. Such feedbacks stimulate vegetation growth with an earlier onset of growing-season, leading to compositional changes in woody plants and vegetation

  11. Arctic climate response to forcing from light-absorbing particles in snow and sea ice in CESM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Goldenson

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available The presence of light-absorbing aerosol particles deposited on arctic snow and sea ice influences the surface albedo, causing greater shortwave absorption, warming, and loss of snow and sea ice, lowering the albedo further. The Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1 now includes the radiative effects of light-absorbing particles in snow on land and sea ice and in sea ice itself. We investigate the model response to the deposition of black carbon and dust to both snow and sea ice. For these purposes we employ a slab ocean version of CESM1, using the Community Atmosphere Model version 4 (CAM4, run to equilibrium for year 2000 levels of CO2 and fixed aerosol deposition. We construct experiments with and without aerosol deposition, with dust or black carbon deposition alone, and with varying quantities of black carbon and dust to approximate year 1850 and 2000 deposition fluxes. The year 2000 deposition fluxes of both dust and black carbon cause 1–2 °C of surface warming over large areas of the Arctic Ocean and sub-Arctic seas in autumn and winter and in patches of Northern land in every season. Atmospheric circulation changes are a key component of the surface-warming pattern. Arctic sea ice thins by on average about 30 cm. Simulations with year 1850 aerosol deposition are not substantially different from those with year 2000 deposition, given constant levels of CO2. The climatic impact of particulate impurities deposited over land exceeds that of particles deposited over sea ice. Even the surface warming over the sea ice and sea ice thinning depends more upon light-absorbing particles deposited over land. For CO2 doubled relative to year 2000 levels, the climate impact of particulate impurities in snow and sea ice is substantially lower than for the year 2000 equilibrium simulation.

  12. Tracking Particulate Organic Matter Characteristics in Major Arctic Rivers: Indicators of Watershed-Scale Climate Impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    McClelland, J. W.; Griffin, C. G.; Holmes, R. M.; Peterson, B. J.; Raymond, P. A.; Spencer, R. G.; Striegl, R. G.; Tank, S. E.

    2015-12-01

    Six large rivers, including the Yukon and Mackenzie in North America and the Yenisey, Ob', Lena, and Kolyma in Eurasia, drain the majority of the watershed area surrounding the Arctic Ocean. Parallel sampling programs were initiated at downstream locations on these rivers in 2003 to improve estimates of fluvial export and track large-scale perturbations associated with climate change. Over a decade later, synthesis of water chemistry data from these ongoing sampling efforts provides an unprecedented opportunity to 1) examine similarities and differences among the major Arctic rivers, and 2) think critically about how changes in various water chemistry parameters may or may not inform us about climate change impacts. River-borne organic matter characteristics may be particularly telling because mass flux values and composition/source indicators vary with hydrology and permafrost coverage. However, separating climate impacts that occur within river corridors from those that occur beyond them may be difficult, especially when considering changes in particulate organic matter (POM) loads. Data on suspended POM yields, C:N ratios, stable isotope ratios, and radiocarbon content in the major Arctic rivers show marked spatial, seasonal, and interannual variability that is helpful for thinking about how climate change effects may manifest in the future, but it will be challenging to separate changes in POM related to bank erosion and suspension/deposition of in situ sediment stocks from changes in POM that may be linked to processes such as permafrost thaw occurring across the broader landscape.

  13. Eocene climate and Arctic paleobathymetry: A tectonic sensitivity study using GISS ModelE-R

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, C. D.; Legrande, A. N.; Tripati, A. K.

    2009-12-01

    The early Paleogene (65-45 million years ago, Ma) was a ‘greenhouse’ interval with global temperatures warmer than any other time in the last 65 Ma. This period was characterized by high levels of CO2, warm high-latitudes, warm surface-and-deep oceans, and an intensified hydrological cycle. Sediments from the Arctic suggest that the Eocene surface Arctic Ocean was warm, brackish, and episodically enabled the freshwater fern Azolla to bloom. The precise mechanisms responsible for the development of these conditions remain uncertain. We present equilibrium climate conditions derived from a fully-coupled, water-isotope enabled, general circulation model (GISS ModelE-R) configured for the early Eocene. We also present model-data comparison plots for key climatic variables (SST and δ18O) and analyses of the leading modes of variability in the tropical Pacific and North Atlantic regions. Our tectonic sensitivity study indicates that Northern Hemisphere climate would have been very sensitive to the degree of oceanic exchange through the seaways connecting the Arctic to the Atlantic and Tethys. By restricting these seaways, we simulate freshening of the surface Arctic Ocean to ~6 psu and warming of sea-surface temperatures by 2°C in the North Atlantic and 5-10°C in the Labrador Sea. Our results may help explain the occurrence of low-salinity tolerant taxa in the Arctic Ocean during the Eocene and provide a mechanism for enhanced warmth in the north western Atlantic. We also suggest that the formation of a volcanic land-bridge between Greenland and Europe could have caused increased ocean convection and warming of intermediate waters in the Atlantic. If true, this result is consistent with the theory that bathymetry changes may have caused thermal destabilisation of methane clathrates in the Atlantic.

  14. Climate change and consequences in the Arctic: perception of climate change by the Nenets people of Vaigach Island

    OpenAIRE

    Davydov, Alexander N.; Mikhailova, Galina V.

    2011-01-01

    Background Arctic climate change is already having a significant impact on the environment, economic activity, and public health. For the northern peoples, traditions and cultural identity are closely related to the natural environment so any change will have consequences for society in several ways. Methods A questionnaire was given to the population on the Vaigach island, the Nenets who rely to a large degree on hunting, fishing and reindeer herding for survival. Semi-structured interviews ...

  15. Climate change and consequences in the Arctic: perception of climate change by the Nenets people of Vaigach Island

    OpenAIRE

    Alexander N. Davydov; Mikhaylova, Galina V.

    2011-01-01

    Background: Arctic climate change is already having a significant impact on the environment, economic activity, and public health. For the northern peoples, traditions and cultural identity are closely related to the natural environment so any change will have consequences for society in several ways. Methods: A questionnaire was given to the population on the Vaigach island, the Nenets who rely to a large degree on hunting, fishing and reindeer herding for survival. Semi-structured interview...

  16. Relevance of Hydro-Climatic Change Projection and Monitoring for Assessment of Water Cycle Changes in the Arctic

    OpenAIRE

    Bring, Arvid; Destouni, Georgia

    2010-01-01

    Rapid changes to the Arctic hydrological cycle challenge both our process understanding and our ability to find appropriate adaptation strategies. We have investigated the relevance and accuracy development of climate change projections for assessment of water cycle changes in major Arctic drainage basins. Results show relatively good agreement of climate model projections with observed temperature changes, but high model inaccuracy relative to available observation data for precipitation cha...

  17. Short-lived pollutants in the Arctic: their climate impact and possible mitigation strategies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Menon, Surabi; Quinn, P.K.; Bates, T.S.; Baum, E.; Doubleday, N.; Fiore, A.M.; Flanner, M.; Fridlind, A.; Garrett, T.J.; Koch, D.; Menon, S.; Shindell, D.; Stohl, A.; Warren, S.G.

    2007-09-24

    Several short-lived pollutants known to impact Arctic climate may be contributing to the accelerated rates of warming observed in this region relative to the global annually averaged temperature increase. Here, we present a summary of the short-lived pollutants that impact Arctic climate including methane, tropospheric ozone, and tropospheric aerosols. For each pollutant, we provide a description of the major sources and the mechanism of forcing. We also provide the first seasonally averaged forcing and corresponding temperature response estimates focused specifically on the Arctic. The calculations indicate that the forcings due to black carbon, methane, and tropospheric ozone lead to a positive surface temperature response indicating the need to reduce emissions of these species within and outside the Arctic. Additional aerosol species may also lead to surface warming if the aerosol is coincident with thin, low lying clouds. We suggest strategies for reducing the warming based on current knowledge and discuss directions for future research to address the large remaining uncertainties.

  18. Tourism and Arctic Observation Systems: exploring the relationships

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suzanne de la Barre

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The Arctic is affected by global environmental change and also by diverse interests from many economic sectors and industries. Over the last decade, various actors have attempted to explore the options for setting up integrated and comprehensive trans-boundary systems for monitoring and observing these impacts. These Arctic Observation Systems (AOS contribute to the planning, implementation, monitoring and evaluation of environmental change and responsible social and economic development in the Arctic. The aim of this article is to identify the two-way relationship between AOS and tourism. On the one hand, tourism activities account for diverse changes across a broad spectrum of impact fields. On the other hand, due to its multiple and diverse agents and far-reaching activities, tourism is also well-positioned to collect observational data and participate as an actor in monitoring activities. To accomplish our goals, we provide an inventory of tourism-embedded issues and concerns of interest to AOS from a range of destinations in the circumpolar Arctic region, including Alaska, Arctic Canada, Iceland, Svalbard, the mainland European Arctic and Russia. The article also draws comparisons with the situation in Antarctica. On the basis of a collective analysis provided by members of the International Polar Tourism Research Network from across the polar regions, we conclude that the potential role for tourism in the development and implementation of AOS is significant and has been overlooked.

  19. Collaborative Project. Understanding the effects of tides and eddies on the ocean dynamics, sea ice cover and decadal/centennial climate prediction using the Regional Arctic Climate Model (RACM)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hutchings, Jennifer [Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK (United States); Joseph, Renu [Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK (United States)

    2013-09-14

    The goal of this project is to develop an eddy resolving ocean model (POP) with tides coupled to a sea ice model (CICE) within the Regional Arctic System Model (RASM) to investigate the importance of ocean tides and mesoscale eddies in arctic climate simulations and quantify biases associated with these processes and how their relative contribution may improve decadal to centennial arctic climate predictions. Ocean, sea ice and coupled arctic climate response to these small scale processes will be evaluated with regard to their influence on mass, momentum and property exchange between oceans, shelf-basin, ice-ocean, and ocean-atmosphere. The project will facilitate the future routine inclusion of polar tides and eddies in Earth System Models when computing power allows. As such, the proposed research addresses the science in support of the BER’s Climate and Environmental Sciences Division Long Term Measure as it will improve the ocean and sea ice model components as well as the fully coupled RASM and Community Earth System Model (CESM) and it will make them more accurate and computationally efficient.

  20. Signs of the Land: Reaching Arctic Communities Facing Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sparrow, E. B.; Chase, M. J.; Demientieff, S.; Pfirman, S. L.; Brunacini, J.

    2014-12-01

    In July 2014, a diverse and intergenerational group of Alaskan Natives came together on Howard Luke's Galee'ya Camp by the Tanana River in Fairbanks, Alaska to talk about climate change and it's impacts on local communities. Over a period of four days, the Signs of the Land Climate Change Camp wove together traditional knowledge, local observations, Native language, and climate science through a mix of storytelling, presentations, dialogue, and hands-on, community-building activities. This camp adapted the model developed several years ago under the Association for Interior Native Educators (AINE)'s Elder Academy. Part of the Polar Learning and Responding Climate Change Education Partnership, the Signs of the Land Climate Change Camp was developed and conducted collaboratively with multiple partners to test a model for engaging indigenous communities in the co-production of climate change knowledge, communication tools, and solutions-building. Native Alaskans have strong subsistence and cultural connections to the land and its resources, and, in addition to being keen observers of their environment, have a long history of adapting to changing conditions. Participants in the camp included Elders, classroom teachers, local resource managers and planners, community members, and climate scientists. Based on their experiences during the camp, participants designed individualized outreach plans for bringing culturally-responsive climate learning to their communities and classrooms throughout the upcoming year. Plans included small group discussions, student projects, teacher training, and conference presentations.

  1. Dynamics of a recovering Arctic bird population: the importance of climate, density dependence, and site quality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruggeman, Jason E; Swem, Ted; Andersen, David E; Kennedy, Patricia L; Nigro, Debora

    2015-10-01

    Intrinsic and extrinsic factors affect vital rates and population-level processes, and understanding these factors is paramount to devising successful management plans for wildlife species. For example, birds time migration in response, in part, to local and broadscale climate fluctuations to initiate breeding upon arrival to nesting territories, and prolonged inclement weather early in the breeding season can inhibit egg-laying and reduce productivity. Also, density-dependent regulation occurs in raptor populations, as territory size is related to resource availability. Arctic Peregrine Falcons (Falco peregrinus tundrius; hereafter Arctic peregrine) have a limited and northern breeding distribution, including the Colville River Special Area (CRSA) in the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska, USA. We quantified influences of climate, topography, nest productivity, prey habitat, density dependence, and interspecific competition affecting Arctic peregrines in the CRSA by applying the Dail-Madsen model to estimate abundance and vital rates of adults on nesting cliffs from 1981 through 2002. Arctic peregrine abundance increased throughout the 1980s, which spanned the population's recovery from DDT-induced reproductive failure, until exhibiting a stationary trend in the 1990s. Apparent survival rate (i.e., emigration; death) was negatively correlated with the number of adult Arctic peregrines on the cliff the previous year, suggesting effects of density-dependent population regulation. Apparent survival and arrival rates (i.e., immigration; recruitment) were higher during years with earlier snowmelt and milder winters, and apparent survival was positively correlated with nesting season maximum daily temperature. Arrival rate was positively correlated with average Arctic peregrine productivity along a cliff segment from the previous year and initial abundance was positively correlated with cliff height. Higher cliffs with documented higher productivity (presumably

  2. Pcw/phemos for Arctic Weather, Climate and Air Quality: a Quasi-Geostationary View of the Arctic and Environs

    Science.gov (United States)

    McConnell, J. C.; O'Neill, N. T.; McElroy, C. T.; Solheim, B.; Buijs, H.; Rahnama, P.; Walker, K. A.; Martin, R. V.; Sioris, C.; Garand, L.; Trichtchenko, A.; Nassar, R.

    2011-12-01

    The Arctic is a region of rapid climate change with warming temperatures and depleting multi-year ice which may be exacerbated by transport of black carbon from the burning of the boreal forest and anthropogenic material from mid- and high-latitudes. It is also the source of winter storms delivering cold air to lower latitudes. Currently data are available for these areas from polar orbiting satellites, but only intermittently at a given location as the satellites pass overhead. The Canadian Space Agency, in concert with other government departments, is considering launching the PCW (Polar Communications and Weather) mission which would use two satellites each in a 16 hour TAP or 12 hour Molniya orbit (very high eccentricity with an apogee of ~ 6Re) which is a quasi-stationary orbit close to apogee ( 4 hours) to give 24x7 (continuous) coverage of the Arctic region. The baseline PCW meteorological instrument which would deliver operational meteorological data to the forecasting community is a 20-channel spectral imager similar to MODIS or ABI. The CSA is exploring the possibility of science instruments for atmospheric, plasma and auroral science. Currently the CSA has launched a Phase-A study for the development of an atmospheric package, called PHEMOS, led by ABB Bomen, with COM DEV and a group of atmospheric scientists from university and government. We will present the case for the development of a suite of innovative imaging instruments to provide essential Arctic weather, climate and air quality data from the PCW satellites. The science goals of the PHEMOS instruments (imaging FTS, UV-Vis spectrometer) in concert with those of the PCW multi-spectral imager are the provision of basic weather information, the collection of synoptic-scale air quality (gas and aerosol) measurements to better understand the impact of industrial and agricultural pollution, boreal forest fire smoke and volcanic aerosols on mid- and high latitudes as well as the acquisition of column

  3. INTRODUCTION: Impact of climate and fisheries on sub-Arctic stocks

    OpenAIRE

    2013-01-01

    Understanding the drivers (internal and external) that determine the productivity of marine ecosystems is challenging. For example, the correct estimate of recruitment is essential to estimate fish stock abundance. In this Theme Section, 5 papers explore the effect of fishing and climate on population structure across sub-Arctic ecosystems. The studies focus on how temperatureand fishing-induced changes in spatial and demographic population structure affect recruitment and population growth r...

  4. Remediation of oil-contaminated soil in Arctic Climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Pernille Erland; Fritt-Rasmussen, Janne; Rodrigo, Ana P.;

    Oil spill is a problem in towns in Greenland, where oil is used for heating and transport. The problem may increase in the future with expected oil exploitation in Greenlandic marine areas and related terrestrial activities. Oil undergoes natural microbial degradation in which nutrients......, temperature, water content, pE and pH are important factors for the degradation rate. In particular temperature and nutrient availability are challenges in the Arctic, and alternative solutions must be sought if biodegradation is to be implemented as a low-cost and lowtech solution in this region. Experiments...... have been made with excavated oil-contaminated soil from the Greenlandic town Sisimiut to study different low-tech and low-cost solutions for remediation of oil-contamination....

  5. Remediation of oil-contaminated soil in Arctic Climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Pernille Erland; Fritt-Rasmussen, Janne; Rodrigo, Ana;

    Oil spill is a problem in towns in Greenland, where oil is used for heating and transport. The problem may increase in the future with expected oil exploitation in Greenlandic marine areas and related terrestrial activities. Oil undergoes natural microbial degradation in which nutrients......, temperature, water content, pE and pH are important factors for the degradation rate. In particular temperature and nutrient availability are challenges in the Arctic, and alternative solutions must be sought if biodegradation is to be implemented as a low-cost and low-tech solution in this region....... Experiments have been made with excavated oil-contaminated soil from the Greenlandic town Sisimiut to study different low-tech and low-cost solutions for remediation of oil-contamination...

  6. Climate change and environmental impacts on maternal and newborn health with focus on Arctic populations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Torkjel M. Sandanger

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available In 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC presented a report on global warming and the impact of human activities on global warming. Later the Lancet commission identified six ways human health could be affected. Among these were not environmental factors which are also believed to be important for human health. In this paper we therefore focus on environmental factors, climate change and the predicted effects on maternal and newborn health. Arctic issues are discussed specifically considering their exposure and sensitivity to long range transported contaminants.Considering that the different parts of pregnancy are particularly sensitive time periods for the effects of environmental exposure, this review focuses on the impacts on maternal and newborn health. Environmental stressors known to affects human health and how these will change with the predicted climate change are addressed. Air pollution and food security are crucial issues for the pregnant population in a changing climate, especially indoor climate and food security in Arctic areas.The total number of environmental factors is today responsible for a large number of the global deaths, especially in young children. Climate change will most likely lead to an increase in this number. Exposure to the different environmental stressors especially air pollution will in most parts of the world increase with climate change, even though some areas might face lower exposure. Populations at risk today are believed to be most heavily affected. As for the persistent organic pollutants a warming climate leads to a remobilisation and a possible increase in food chain exposure in the Arctic and thus increased risk for Arctic populations. This is especially the case for mercury. The perspective for the next generations will be closely connected to the expected temperature changes; changes in housing conditions; changes in exposure patterns; predicted increased exposure to Mercury

  7. Recent climate change in the Arctic and its impact on contaminant pathways and interpretation of temporal trend data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Macdonald, R.W. [Institute of Ocean Sciences, Department of Fisheries and Oceans, P.O. Box 6000, Sydney, BC (Canada); Harner, T. [Meteorological Service of Canada, Environment Canada, 4905 Dufferin Street, Downsview, ON (Canada); Fyfe, J. [Meteorological Service of Canada, Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, 3964 Gordon Head Road, Victoria, BC (Canada)

    2005-04-15

    possibility, presently difficult to predict, is combination of immune suppression together with expanding ranges of disease vectors. Finally, biotransport through migratory species is exceptionally vulnerable to changes in migration strength or in migration pathway-in the Arctic, change in the distribution of ice and temperature may already have caused such changes. Hydrocarbons, which tend to impact surfaces, will be mostly affected by change in the ice climate (distribution and drift tracks). Perhaps the most dramatic changes will occur because our view of the Arctic Ocean will change as it becomes more amenable to transport, tourism and mineral exploration on the shelves. Radionuclides have tended not to produce a radiological problem in the Arctic; nevertheless one pathway, the ice, remains a risk because it can accrue, concentrate and transport radio-contaminated sediments. This pathway is sensitive to where ice is produced, what the transport pathways of ice are, and where ice is finally melted-all strong candidates for change during the coming century. The changes that have already occurred in the Arctic and those that are projected to occur have an effect on contaminant time series including direct measurements (air, water, biota) or proxies (sediment cores, ice cores, archive material). Although these 'system' changes can alter the flux and concentrations at given sites in a number of obvious ways, they have been all but ignored in the interpretation of such time series. To understand properly what trends mean, especially in complex 'recorders' such as seals, walrus and polar bears, demands a more thorough approach to time series by collecting data in a number of media coherently. Presently, a major reservoir for contaminants and the one most directly connected to biological uptake in species at greatest risk-the ocean-practically lacks such time series.

  8. Recent climate change in the Arctic and its impact on contaminant pathways and interpretation of temporal trend data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macdonald, R W; Harner, T; Fyfe, J

    2005-04-15

    possibility, presently difficult to predict, is combination of immune suppression together with expanding ranges of disease vectors. Finally, biotransport through migratory species is exceptionally vulnerable to changes in migration strength or in migration pathway-in the Arctic, change in the distribution of ice and temperature may already have caused such changes. Hydrocarbons, which tend to impact surfaces, will be mostly affected by change in the ice climate (distribution and drift tracks). Perhaps the most dramatic changes will occur because our view of the Arctic Ocean will change as it becomes more amenable to transport, tourism and mineral exploration on the shelves. Radionuclides have tended not to produce a radiological problem in the Arctic; nevertheless one pathway, the ice, remains a risk because it can accrue, concentrate and transport radio-contaminated sediments. This pathway is sensitive to where ice is produced, what the transport pathways of ice are, and where ice is finally melted-all strong candidates for change during the coming century. The changes that have already occurred in the Arctic and those that are projected to occur have an effect on contaminant time series including direct measurements (air, water, biota) or proxies (sediment cores, ice cores, archive material). Although these 'system' changes can alter the flux and concentrations at given sites in a number of obvious ways, they have been all but ignored in the interpretation of such time series. To understand properly what trends mean, especially in complex 'recorders' such as seals, walrus and polar bears, demands a more thorough approach to time series by collecting data in a number of media coherently. Presently, a major reservoir for contaminants and the one most directly connected to biological uptake in species at greatest risk-the ocean-practically lacks such time series. PMID:15866268

  9. Recent climate change in the Arctic and its impact on contaminant pathways and interpretation of temporal trend data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    possibility, presently difficult to predict, is combination of immune suppression together with expanding ranges of disease vectors. Finally, biotransport through migratory species is exceptionally vulnerable to changes in migration strength or in migration pathway-in the Arctic, change in the distribution of ice and temperature may already have caused such changes. Hydrocarbons, which tend to impact surfaces, will be mostly affected by change in the ice climate (distribution and drift tracks). Perhaps the most dramatic changes will occur because our view of the Arctic Ocean will change as it becomes more amenable to transport, tourism and mineral exploration on the shelves. Radionuclides have tended not to produce a radiological problem in the Arctic; nevertheless one pathway, the ice, remains a risk because it can accrue, concentrate and transport radio-contaminated sediments. This pathway is sensitive to where ice is produced, what the transport pathways of ice are, and where ice is finally melted-all strong candidates for change during the coming century. The changes that have already occurred in the Arctic and those that are projected to occur have an effect on contaminant time series including direct measurements (air, water, biota) or proxies (sediment cores, ice cores, archive material). Although these 'system' changes can alter the flux and concentrations at given sites in a number of obvious ways, they have been all but ignored in the interpretation of such time series. To understand properly what trends mean, especially in complex 'recorders' such as seals, walrus and polar bears, demands a more thorough approach to time series by collecting data in a number of media coherently. Presently, a major reservoir for contaminants and the one most directly connected to biological uptake in species at greatest risk-the ocean-practically lacks such time series

  10. Little auks buffer the impact of current Arctic climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grémillet, David; Welcker, Jorg; Karnovsky, Nina J.;

    2012-01-01

    Climate models predict a multi-degree warming of the North Atlantic in the 21st century. A research priority is to understand the impact of such changes upon marine organisms. With 40-80 million individuals, planktivorous little auks (Alle alle) are an essential component of pelagic food webs in...... this region that are potentially highly susceptible to climatic effects. Using an integrative study of their behaviour, physiology and fitness at three study sites, we evaluated the impact of ocean warming on little auks across the Greenland Sea in 2005-2007. Contrary to our hypothesis, the birds...... responded to a wide range of sea surface temperatures via plasticity of their foraging behaviour, allowing them to maintain their fitness levels unchanged. Predicted effects of climate change are significantly attenuated by such plasticity, confounding attempts to forecast future impacts of climate change...

  11. Norwegian Arctic climate. Climate influencing emissions, scenarios and mitigation options at Svalbard

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vestreng, Vigdis; Kallenborn, Roland; Oekstad, Elin

    2010-07-01

    The goal of this study was to establish an emission inventory and emission scenarios for climate influencing compounds at Svalbard, as a basis to develop strategies for emission reduction measures and policies. Emissions for the years 2000-2007 have been estimated for the Svalbard Zone. This area, covering about 173 000 km{sub 2}, ranges from 10 E to 35 E longitude and 74 N to 81 N latitude (Figure 1). In addition, air and ship transport between Tromsoe at the Norwegian mainland and Svalbard has been included. Pollutants considered in our inventory are carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}), methane (CH{sub 4}), Sulphur dioxide (SO{sub 2}), Nitrogen oxides (NO{sub x} as NO{sub 2}), and for the first time also estimates of black carbon (BC, soot) and organic carbon (OC) have been included. Our results show that emissions of all pollutants have increased over the time span 2000-2007 (Figure 2), and are expected to increase also in the future if additional measures are not implemented (Figure 12). The emissions from Svalbard are minuscule compared to emission released from the Norwegian mainland and waters (1% in the case of CO{sub 2}). Even so, local releases of climate influencing compounds in the vulnerable Arctic may turn out to make a difference both with respect to adverse environmental effects and to climate change. Emissions have been estimated for all activities of any significance taking place at and around Svalbard. Combustion sources as well as fugitive emissions of methane are included. The main sectors are coal mining, energy production and transportation. Pollution from 28 sub sectors related to these activities has been estimated. The scope of this work differs from that covered by national inventories since emission estimates are based on the fuel consumed and include emissions from international shipping and aviation. Fuel consumption data were collected from local authorities, institutions and industry. Emission factors have been selected from relevant

  12. Norwegian Arctic climate. Climate influencing emissions, scenarios and mitigation options at Svalbard

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vestreng, Vigdis; Kallenborn, Roland; Oekstad, Elin

    2010-07-01

    The goal of this study was to establish an emission inventory and emission scenarios for climate influencing compounds at Svalbard, as a basis to develop strategies for emission reduction measures and policies. Emissions for the years 2000-2007 have been estimated for the Svalbard Zone. This area, covering about 173 000 km{sub 2}, ranges from 10 E to 35 E longitude and 74 N to 81 N latitude (Figure 1). In addition, air and ship transport between Tromsoe at the Norwegian mainland and Svalbard has been included. Pollutants considered in our inventory are carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}), methane (CH{sub 4}), Sulphur dioxide (SO{sub 2}), Nitrogen oxides (NO{sub x} as NO{sub 2}), and for the first time also estimates of black carbon (BC, soot) and organic carbon (OC) have been included. Our results show that emissions of all pollutants have increased over the time span 2000-2007 (Figure 2), and are expected to increase also in the future if additional measures are not implemented (Figure 12). The emissions from Svalbard are minuscule compared to emission released from the Norwegian mainland and waters (1% in the case of CO{sub 2}). Even so, local releases of climate influencing compounds in the vulnerable Arctic may turn out to make a difference both with respect to adverse environmental effects and to climate change. Emissions have been estimated for all activities of any significance taking place at and around Svalbard. Combustion sources as well as fugitive emissions of methane are included. The main sectors are coal mining, energy production and transportation. Pollution from 28 sub sectors related to these activities has been estimated. The scope of this work differs from that covered by national inventories since emission estimates are based on the fuel consumed and include emissions from international shipping and aviation. Fuel consumption data were collected from local authorities, institutions and industry. Emission factors have been selected from relevant

  13. Earth System Modeling and Field Experiments in the Arctic-Boreal Zone - Report from a NASA Workshop

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sellers, Piers; Rienecker Michele; Randall, David; Frolking, Steve

    2012-01-01

    Early climate modeling studies predicted that the Arctic Ocean and surrounding circumpolar land masses would heat up earlier and faster than other parts of the planet as a result of greenhouse gas-induced climate change, augmented by the sea-ice albedo feedback effect. These predictions have been largely borne out by observations over the last thirty years. However, despite constant improvement, global climate models have greater difficulty in reproducing the current climate in the Arctic than elsewhere and the scatter between projections from different climate models is much larger in the Arctic than for other regions. Biogeochemical cycle (BGC) models indicate that the warming in the Arctic-Boreal Zone (ABZ) could lead to widespread thawing of the permafrost, along with massive releases of CO2 and CH4, and large-scale changes in the vegetation cover in the ABZ. However, the uncertainties associated with these BGC model predictions are even larger than those associated with the physical climate system models used to describe climate change. These deficiencies in climate and BGC models reflect, at least in part, an incomplete understanding of the Arctic climate system and can be related to inadequate observational data or analyses of existing data. A workshop was held at NASA/GSFC, May 22-24 2012, to assess the predictive capability of the models, prioritize the critical science questions; and make recommendations regarding new field experiments needed to improve model subcomponents. This presentation will summarize the findings and recommendations of the workshop, including the need for aircraft and flux tower measurements and extension of existing in-situ measurements to improve process modeling of both the physical climate and biogeochemical cycle systems. Studies should be directly linked to remote sensing investigations with a view to scaling up the improved process models to the Earth System Model scale. Data assimilation and observing system simulation

  14. CLIMATE CHANGE AND VULNERABILITY OF THE ARCTIC ELDERLY: AN ASSESSMENT FROM HUMAN RIGHTS POINT OF VIEW

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shahnaj Begum

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available There are increasing challenges among the elderly in the Arctic region. Global warming due to climate change is one of the major reasons for these challenges. Because of climate change temperature in the region increases, which results in rapid melting of sea ice causing various environmental, social, cultural and economic problems. Population in the region suffers from these problems where elderly people are the most vulnerable. Climate change has already affected the elderly lives in different ways, such as, by physical, social, political, cultural and psychological ways. These have serious consequences in terms of human rights of this vulnerable group of people. However, the elderly people’s human rights issues have not been adequately researched in the context of this region. The goal of this paper is to present elderly related human rights issues, particularly the rights that are affected due to climate change in this specific region.

  15. Arctic Spring Transition in Warming Climate: A Study Using Reanalysis Dataset

    Science.gov (United States)

    De, B.; Zhang, X.

    2014-12-01

    An increased warming trend over the Arctic in recent years has been documented using observations, and is expected to continue by climate model projections. This increase may shift the springtime transition time, resulting in a longer sea-ice melt and vegetation growing period over the Arctic. In this study, we investigated variability of and changes in the spring transition in a warming climate and examined attributions of various dynamic and thermodynamic processes. The results demonstrate a dramatic increase in springtime surface air temperature (SAT) over the Arctic since 1979. Physical analysis reveals the importance of large-scale poleward moisture and energy advection accompanied by an enhancement in net downward radiation flux, which result in the surface warming. The cloudiness could impact the surface radiation budget and retreat of sea ice cover reduces surface albedo, making an additional contribution to the surface warming. In addition to the overall evaluation of these physical processes, composite analysis suggests that relative contributions from these processes to the increased springtime SAT vary across different geographic sub-regions.

  16. Proceedings of the 2005 conference on assessment and remediation of contaminated sites in Arctic and cold climates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    With increasing activity and interest in the diamond mines and oil and gas industry in Canada's Arctic along with increased activity in the Antarctic, Alaska and Russia, the exchange of knowledge concerning development in the Arctic and other cold climates has become increasing relevant. The presentations at this conference focused on the assessment and remediation of contaminated sites in colder climates and regions around the world. Issues concerning Aboriginal involvement in impact management and collaborative planning were reviewed. The development of risk assessment methodologies and new remediation approaches and techniques were examined, as well as new closure and decommissioning management strategies. Issues concerning landfills, water migration, engineering and geologic considerations and barrier systems were reviewed. Other topics of discussion included the development of site-specific environmental criteria, issues concerning the remediation of mines, new developments in soil remediation, hydrocarbon, chlorinated ethenes and soil nitrogen ratios. Key challenges include the effects of cold temperatures on maintenance and remedial effectiveness, as well as the accumulation of hydrocarbons in the soil at low temperatures. Remediation planning and logistical support issues were also discussed. A total of 42 papers were presented at this conference, of which 10 have been indexed separately for inclusion in this database

  17. Climate change and infectious diseases in the Arctic: establishment of a circumpolar working group

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alan J. Parkinson

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available The Arctic, even more so than other parts of the world, has warmed substantially over the past few decades. Temperature and humidity influence the rate of development, survival and reproduction of pathogens and thus the incidence and prevalence of many infectious diseases. Higher temperatures may also allow infected host species to survive winters in larger numbers, increase the population size and expand their habitat range. The impact of these changes on human disease in the Arctic has not been fully evaluated. There is concern that climate change may shift the geographic and temporal distribution of a range of infectious diseases. Many infectious diseases are climate sensitive, where their emergence in a region is dependent on climate-related ecological changes. Most are zoonotic diseases, and can be spread between humans and animals by arthropod vectors, water, soil, wild or domestic animals. Potentially climate-sensitive zoonotic pathogens of circumpolar concern include Brucella spp., Toxoplasma gondii, Trichinella spp., Clostridium botulinum, Francisella tularensis, Borrelia burgdorferi, Bacillus anthracis, Echinococcus spp., Leptospira spp., Giardia spp., Cryptosporida spp., Coxiella burnetti, rabies virus, West Nile virus, Hantaviruses, and tick-borne encephalitis viruses.

  18. Climate change and infectious diseases in the Arctic: establishment of a circumpolar working group.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parkinson, Alan J; Evengard, Birgitta; Semenza, Jan C; Ogden, Nicholas; Børresen, Malene L; Berner, Jim; Brubaker, Michael; Sjöstedt, Anders; Evander, Magnus; Hondula, David M; Menne, Bettina; Pshenichnaya, Natalia; Gounder, Prabhu; Larose, Tricia; Revich, Boris; Hueffer, Karsten; Albihn, Ann

    2014-01-01

    The Arctic, even more so than other parts of the world, has warmed substantially over the past few decades. Temperature and humidity influence the rate of development, survival and reproduction of pathogens and thus the incidence and prevalence of many infectious diseases. Higher temperatures may also allow infected host species to survive winters in larger numbers, increase the population size and expand their habitat range. The impact of these changes on human disease in the Arctic has not been fully evaluated. There is concern that climate change may shift the geographic and temporal distribution of a range of infectious diseases. Many infectious diseases are climate sensitive, where their emergence in a region is dependent on climate-related ecological changes. Most are zoonotic diseases, and can be spread between humans and animals by arthropod vectors, water, soil, wild or domestic animals. Potentially climate-sensitive zoonotic pathogens of circumpolar concern include Brucella spp., Toxoplasma gondii, Trichinella spp., Clostridium botulinum, Francisella tularensis, Borrelia burgdorferi, Bacillus anthracis, Echinococcus spp., Leptospira spp., Giardia spp., Cryptosporida spp., Coxiella burnetti, rabies virus, West Nile virus, Hantaviruses, and tick-borne encephalitis viruses. PMID:25317383

  19. Global warming is changing the dynamics of Arctic host–parasite systems

    OpenAIRE

    Kutz, S.J; Hoberg, E. P.; Polley, L.; Jenkins, E.J

    2005-01-01

    Global climate change is altering the ecology of infectious agents and driving the emergence of disease in people, domestic animals, and wildlife. We present a novel, empirically based, predictive model for the impact of climate warming on development rates and availability of an important parasitic nematode of muskoxen in the Canadian Arctic, a region that is particularly vulnerable to climate change. Using this model, we show that warming in the Arctic may have already radically altered the...

  20. Enabling Use of Unmanned Aircraft Systems for Arctic Environmental Monitoring

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Storvold, Rune; la Cour-Harbo, Anders; Mulac, Brenda;

    , satellites and manned aircraft are the traditional platforms on which scientists gather data of the atmosphere, sea ice, glaciers, fauna and vegetation. However, significant data gaps still exist over much of the Arctic because there are few research stations, satellites are often hindered by cloud cover......, poor resolution, and the complicated surface of snow and ice. Measurements made from manned aircraft are also limited because of range and endurance, as well as the danger and costs presented by operating manned aircraft in harsh and remote environments like the Arctic. Unmanned aircraft systems (UAS...

  1. A Science Plan for Development of an Arctic System Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hinzman, L.; Cassano, J.; Doescher, R.; Holland, M.; Mitsudera, H.; Roberts, A.; Sumi, A.; Walsh, J.

    2008-12-01

    In the last 50 years a wide variety of changes in the Arctic have been documented. Regardless of the driving forces, the combined observations and documentation suggest that the arctic system may be entering a state unprecedented in the history of civilization. The complex interplay of physical, chemical, biological and social processes interact to such a degree that it is not possible to understand future trajectories without developing holistic perspectives of the complete system. A central justification for developing an 'Arctic System Model' is to strengthen our understanding of the inter-connections among system components and related feedback processes, thereby enhancing the predictive capability required for societal planning and response to future change. A recent community workshop has identified the objectives and strategic elements that comprise a plan for Arctic System Model development and implementation. The objective encompasses our understanding of change, attribution of change, and effects of change. The plan includes the use of a limited area model, driven at the boundaries by a global model. The limited-area model approach allows for the use of computationally sophisticated algorithms and very high resolution to resolve processes parameterized in global models. The implementation strategy includes the utilization of ongoing efforts in component modeling, together with community oversight and a dedicated vehicle for the provision of coordination, support activities, and liaison with the observational and user communities.

  2. Reconstruction of the Arctic Ocean environment during the Eocene Azolla interval using geochemical proxies and climate modeling. Geologica Ultraiectina (331)

    OpenAIRE

    Speelman, E. N.

    2010-01-01

    With the realization that the Arctic Ocean was covered with enormous quantities of the aquatic floating fern Azolla 49 Myrs ago, new questions regarding the Eocene conditions facilitating these blooms arose. This dissertation describes the reconstruction of paleo-environmental conditions facilitating the large-scale occurrence of the freshwater fern Azolla in the Early/Middle Eocene Arctic and how this bloom might have affected global climate. Comparison of organic geochemical analyses of Eoc...

  3. Tourism and Arctic Observation Systems: exploring the relationships

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Barre, de la Suzanne; Maher, Patrick; Dawson, Jackie; Hillmer-Pegram, Kevin; Huijbens, Edward; Lamers, M.A.J.; Liggett, D.; Müller, D.; Pashkevich, A.; Stewart, Emma

    2016-01-01

    The Arctic is affected by global environmental change and also by diverse interests from many economic sectors and industries. Over the last decade, various actors have attempted to explore the options for setting up integrated and comprehensive trans-boundary systems for monitoring and observing th

  4. The Arctic Summer Cloud Ocean Study (ASCOS) : Overview and experimental design

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tjernström, M.; Leck, C.; Birch, C.E.; Bottenheim, J.W.; Brooks, B.J.; Brooks, I.M.; Bäcklin, L.; Chang, R.Y.W.; Leeuw, G. de; Liberto, L. di; Rosa, S. de la; Granath, E.; Graus, M.; Hansel, A.; Heintzenberg, J.; Held, A.; Hind, A.; Johnston, P.; Knulst, J.; Martin, M.; Matrai, P.A.; Mauritsen, T.; Müller, M.; Norris, S.J.; Orellana, M.V.; Orsini, D.A.; Paatero, J.; Persson, P.O.G.; Gao, Q.; Rauschenberg, C.; Ristovski, Z.; Sedlar, J.; Shupe, M.D.; Sierau, B.; Sirevaag, A.; Sjogren, S.; Stetzer, O.; Swietlicki, E.; Szczodrak, M.; Vaattovaara, P.; Wahlberg, N.; Westberg, M.; Wheeler, C.R.

    2014-01-01

    The climate in the Arctic is changing faster than anywhere else on earth. Poorly understood feedback processes relating to Arctic clouds and aerosol-cloud interactions contribute to a poor understanding of the present changes in the Arctic climate system, and also to a large spread in projections of

  5. Arctic freshwater synthesis: Introduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prowse, T.; Bring, A.; Mârd, J.; Carmack, E.

    2015-11-01

    In response to a joint request from the World Climate Research Program's Climate and Cryosphere Project, the International Arctic Science Committee, and the Arctic Council's Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Program, an updated scientific assessment has been conducted of the Arctic Freshwater System (AFS), entitled the Arctic Freshwater Synthesis (AFSΣ). The major reason for joint request was an increasing concern that changes to the AFS have produced, and could produce even greater, changes to biogeophysical and socioeconomic systems of special importance to northern residents and also produce extra-Arctic climatic effects that will have global consequences. Hence, the key objective of the AFSΣ was to produce an updated, comprehensive, and integrated review of the structure and function of the entire AFS. The AFSΣ was organized around six key thematic areas: atmosphere, oceans, terrestrial hydrology, terrestrial ecology, resources and modeling, and the review of each coauthored by an international group of scientists and published as separate manuscripts in this special issue of Journal of Geophysical Research-Biogeosciences. This AFSΣ—Introduction reviews the motivations for, and foci of, previous studies of the AFS, discusses criteria used to define the domain of the AFS, and details key characteristics of the definition adopted for the AFSΣ.

  6. Aquatorialities of the Arctic Region – A Systems Theoretical Analysis of Risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gorm Harste

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available In order to describe the Arctic system I propose using a concept functionally equivalent to territoriality, namely aquatoriality. Whether communicating about territoriality or aquatoriality, concepts and delimitations are both contingent to forms of communication systems. I will distinguish between six communications systems that differentiated from each other could become involved in the new deals emerging around the Arctic. Apart of an economic communication code about the Arctic, a legal code, ecological communication codes, and tourist communication codes, I will cope with the military coding of the Arctic. These codes could then appear structurally coupled to a political system that in an organizational way appears in the Arctic Council.

  7. Pävi Naskali, Marjaana Seppänen & Shahnaj Begum (eds.), Ageing, Wellbeing and Climate Change in the Arctic. An interdisciplinary analysis (London: Routledge, 2015)

    OpenAIRE

    Hermann Óskarsson

    2016-01-01

    Book review of: Pävi Naskali, Marjaana Seppänen and Shahnaj Begum (eds.), Ageing, Wellbeing and Climate Change in the Arctic. An interdisciplinary analysis (London: Routledge’s series on advances in climate change research, 2015)

  8. Has prey availability for Arctic birds advanced with climate change? Hindcasting the abundance of tundra Arthropods using weather and seasonal variation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tulp, I.Y.M.; Schekkerman, H.

    2008-01-01

    Of all climatic zones on earth, Arctic areas have experienced the greatest climate change in recent decades. Predicted changes, including a continuing rise in temperature and precipitation and a reduction in snow cover, are expected to have a large impact on Arctic life. Large numbers of birds breed

  9. Effect of Warm Atlantic Waters on the Climate Anomalies in the West Arctic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. N. Zolotokrylin

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Significant climatic changes of oceanic and atmospheric elements and a relation of them to the ocean surface winter anomalies in North Atlantic are analyzed in the paper. Periods of «warm» ocean (2002–2012 and «cold» ocean (1960–1970 were determined. Positive anomalies of the ocean surface temperature increase the ice-free water area and, correspondingly, decrease the ice-field area. As a result of such changes in a state of the ocean surface (open water and ice, surface air temperature rises, and, consequently, atmospheric pressure in central part of a given Arctic sector drops.

  10. Resilience, human agency and climate change adaptation strategies in the Arctic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sejersen, Frank

    2009-01-01

      In the Arctic, indigenous peoples, researchers and governments are working to develop climate change adaptation strategies due to the rapid changes in sea ice extent, weather conditions and in the ecosystem as such. These strategies are often based on specific perceptions of vulnerability and w...... scales and the implications for resilience....... work with a number of barriers for resilience. The objective of the article is first to address the position of institutional barriers in the studies and strategies. Second the article analyses the role human agency is ascribed in proposed strategies and projects in Nunavut and Greenland. With a focus...

  11. Arctic Oil Spill Mapping and Response Using Unmanned Aerial Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cunningham, K. W.

    2011-12-01

    The University of Alaska Fairbanks works extensively with unmanned aerial systems and various sensor payloads used in mapping. Recent projects with Royal Dutch Shell and British Petroleum have demonstrated that unmanned aerial systems, including fixed and rotary winged platforms, can provide quick response to oil spill mapping in a variety of flight conditions, including those not well suited for manned aerial systems. We describe this collaborative research between the University and oil companies exploring and developing oil resources in Alaska and the Arctic.

  12. Postglacial sea-level rise and its impact on the circum-arctic Holocene climate evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauch, Henning; Abramova, Ekaterina; Alenius, Teija; Saarnisto, Matti

    2016-04-01

    The global sea-level rise after the last glaciation not only affected the surface properties (circulation, T-S, sea ice seasonality) of the Arctic Ocean and nearby seas it also had a strong impact on the Holocene development of the shallow North Siberian shelf systems and the environmental evolution of the adjacent hinterland areas. In this region sea level reconstructions indicate the postglacial highstand occurred some time in the middle Holocene, between 6 to 5 ka (Klemann et al., 2015). After that time the sedimentary regime of the shelf seas stabilized as noted in a drastic decrease in sedimentation rates observed in all sediment cores taken from middle to outer shelf water depths of the Laptev Sea (Bauch et al. 2001). But, at water depths lower than 30 meters - i.e., in the inner shelf and nearer to the coasts - sedimentation continued at relatively higher rates, presumably due to input of terrigenous material from river runoff as well as coastal erosion. In relation to the latter process, the huge Lena Delta should comprise a region of sediment catchment where aggradation wins over erosion. However, little is known about the detailed history of this delta during the second half of the Holocene. We therefore have investigated three islands within the Lena Delta. All of these are comprised of massive peat of several meters in thickness. Picking discrete specimens of water mosses (Sphagnum) only, we have carefully dated these peat sections. The depth/age relation of the sampled profiles reflect the growth rate of peat, and thus, the islands. It shows that the islands' history above the present-day delta sea level is about 4000 yrs. old. Moreover, a significant change in peat growth is noted after 2500 yrs BP in both, accumulation and composition, and allows the conclusion of a major shift in Arctic environmental conditions since then. Thus, our results add further information also for other coastal studies, as the ongoing degradation of the rather vulnerable

  13. A Two-dimensional Heat Transfer Model for Atmosphere-land System in the Lake-dominated Alaskan Arctic

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LING Feng; ZHANG Ting-jun

    2002-01-01

    Understanding lake ice growth and its sensitivity to climate change is vital to understand the thermal regime of thaw lake systems and predict their response to climate change. In this paper, a physically-based, two-dimensional, non-steady mathematical model is developed for studying the role of shallow tundra lakes in the Alaskan Arctic. Both the radiation absorption in lake water and the phasechange in permafrost are considerd in the model. The materials the model includes are snow, ice, water, unfrozen and frozen soil (peat, silt,sand and gravel). The basic inputs to the model observed mean daily air temperature and snow depth. The ability of this model to simulate lake ice growth and thickness variation, lake water temperature distribution, the thermal regime of permafrost and talik dynamics beneath lakes, and thawing rate of permafrost below and adjacent to shallow thaw lakes offers the potential to describe the effects of climate change in the Alaskan Arctic.

  14. SEARCH: Study of Environmental Arctic Change—A System-scale, Cross-disciplinary Arctic Research Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiggins, H. V.; Eicken, H.; Fox, S. E.

    2012-12-01

    SEARCH is an interdisciplinary and interagency program that works with academic and government agency scientists to plan, conduct, and synthesize studies of arctic change. The vision of SEARCH is to provide scientific understanding of arctic environmental change to help society understand and respond to a rapidly changing Arctic. Towards this end, SEARCH: 1. Generates and synthesizes research findings and promotes arctic science and scientific discovery across disciplines and among agencies. 2. Identifies emerging issues in arctic environmental change. 3. Provides information resources to arctic stakeholders, policy-makers, and the public to help them respond to arctic environmental change. 4. Coordinates with national arctic science programs integral to SEARCH goals. 5. Facilitates research activities across local-to-global scales with stakeholder concerns incorporated from the start of the planning process. 6. Represents the U.S. arctic environmental change science community in international and global change research initiatives. Specific current activities include: Arctic Observing Network (AON) - coordinating a system of atmospheric, land- and ocean-based environmental monitoring capabilities that will significantly advance our observations of arctic environmental conditions. Arctic Sea Ice Outlook ¬- an international effort that provides monthly summer reports synthesizing community estimates of the expected sea ice minimum. Sea Ice for Walrus Outlook - a resource for Alaska Native subsistence hunters, coastal communities, and others that provides weekly reports with information on sea ice conditions relevant to walrus in Alaska waters. In April, the SEARCH Science Steering Committee (SSC) released a set of draft 5-year goals and objectives for review by the broader arctic science community. The goals and objectives will direct the SEARCH program in the next five years. The draft SEARCH goals focus on four areas: ice-diminished Arctic Ocean, warming

  15. The Community Climate System Model, Version 2.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiehl, Jeffrey T.; Gent, Peter R.

    2004-10-01

    The Community Climate System Model, version 2 (CCSM2) is briefly described. A 1000-yr control simulation of the present day climate has been completed without flux adjustments. Minor modifications were made at year 350, which included all five components using the same physical constants. There are very small trends in the upper-ocean, sea ice, atmosphere, and land fields after year 150 of the control simulation. The deep ocean has small but significant trends; however, these are not large enough that the control simulation could not be continued much further. The equilibrium climate sensitivity of CCSM2 is 2.2 K, which is slightly larger than the Climate System Model, version 1 (CSM1) value of 2.0 K.Several aspects of the control simulation's mean climate and interannual variability are described, and good and bad properties of the control simulation are documented. In particular, several aspects of the simulation, especially in the Arctic region, are much improved over those obtained in CSM1. Other aspects, such as the tropical Pacific region simulation, have not been improved much compared to those in CSM1. Priorities for further model development are discussed in the conclusions section.HR ALIGN="center" WIDTH="30%">

  16. Impact of climate change on zooplankton communities, seabird populations and arctic terrestrial ecosystem—A scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stempniewicz, Lech; Błachowiak-Samołyk, Katarzyna; Węsławski, Jan M.

    2007-11-01

    Many arctic terrestrial ecosystems suffer from a permanent deficiency of nutrients. Marine birds that forage at sea and breed on land can transport organic matter from the sea to land, and thus help to initiate and sustain terrestrial ecosystems. This organic matter initiates the emergence of local tundra communities, increasing primary and secondary production and species diversity. Climate change will influence ocean circulation and the hydrologic regime, which will consequently lead to a restructuring of zooplankton communities between cold arctic waters, with a dominance of large zooplankton species, and Atlantic waters in which small species predominate. The dominance of large zooplankton favours plankton-eating seabirds, such as the little auk ( Alle alle), while the presence of small zooplankton redirects the food chain to plankton-eating fish, up through to fish-eating birds (e.g., guillemots Uria sp.). Thus, in regions where the two water masses compete for dominance, such as in the Barents Sea, plankton-eating birds should dominate the avifauna in cold periods and recess in warmer periods, when fish-eaters should prevail. Therefore under future anthropogenic climate scenarios, there could be serious consequences for the structure and functioning of the terrestrial part of arctic ecosystems, due in part to changes in the arctic marine avifauna. Large colonies of plankton-eating little auks are located on mild mountain slopes, usually a few kilometres from the shore, whereas colonies of fish-eating guillemots are situated on rocky cliffs at the coast. The impact of guillemots on the terrestrial ecosystems is therefore much smaller than for little auks because of the rapid washing-out to sea of the guano deposited on the seabird cliffs. These characteristics of seabird nesting sites dramatically limit the range of occurrence of ornithogenic soils, and the accompanying flora and fauna, to locations where talus-breeding species occur. As a result of climate

  17. Climate change and water security with a focus on the Arctic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Birgitta Evengard

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Water is of fundamental importance for human life; access to water of good quality is of vital concern for mankind. Currently however, the situation is under severe pressure due to several stressors that have a clear impact on access to water. In the Arctic, climate change is having an impact on water availability by melting glaciers, decreasing seasonal rates of precipitation, increasing evapotranspiration, and drying lakes and rivers existing in permafrost grounds. Water quality is also being impacted as manmade pollutants stored in the environment are released, lowland areas are flooded with salty ocean water during storms, turbidity from permafrost-driven thaw and erosion is increased, and the growth or emergence of natural pollutants are increased. By 2030 it is estimated that the world will need to produce 50% more food and energy which means a continuous increase in demand for water. Decisionmakers will have to very clearly include life quality aspects of future generations in the work as impact of ongoing changes will be noticeable, in many cases, in the future. This article will focus on effects of climate-change on water security with an Arctic perspective giving some examples from different countries how arising problems are being addressed.

  18. Building Partnerships and Research Collaborations to Address the Impacts of Arctic Change: The North Atlantic Climate Change Collaboration (NAC3)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Polk, J.; North, L. A.; Strenecky, B.

    2015-12-01

    Changes in Arctic warming influence the various atmospheric and oceanic patterns that drive Caribbean and mid-latitude climate events, including extreme events like drought, tornadoes, and flooding in Kentucky and the surrounding region. Recently, the establishment of the North Atlantic Climate Change Collaboration (NAC3) project at Western Kentucky University (WKU) in partnership with the University of Akureyri (UNAK), Iceland Arctic Cooperation Network (IACN), and Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre (CCCCC) provides a foundation from which to engage students in applied research from the local to global levels and more clearly understand the many tenets of climate change impacts in the Arctic within both a global and local community context. The NAC3 project encompasses many facets, including joint international courses, student internships, economic development, service learning, and applied research. In its first phase, the project has generated myriad outcomes and opportunities for bridging STEM disciplines with other fields to holistically and collaboratively address specific human-environmental issues falling under the broad umbrella of climate change. WKU and UNAK students desire interaction and exposure to other cultures and regions that are threatened by climate change and Iceland presents a unique opportunity to study influences such as oceanic processes, island economies, sustainable harvest of fisheries, and Arctic influences on climate change. The project aims to develop a model to bring partners together to conduct applied research on the complex subject of global environmental change, particularly in the Arctic, while simultaneously focusing on changing how we learn, develop community, and engage internationally to understand the impacts and find solutions.

  19. Why unprecedented ozone loss in the Arctic in 2011? Is it related to climatic change?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J.-P. Pommereau

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available An unprecedented ozone loss occurred in the Arctic in spring 2011. The details of the event are re-visited from the twice-daily total ozone and NO2 columns measurements of the eight SAOZ/NDACC (Système d'Analyse par Observation Zénitale/Network for Detection of Atmospheric Composition Changes stations in the Arctic. It is shown that the total ozone depletion in the polar vortex reached 38% (approx. 170 DU by the end of March that is larger than the 30% of the previous record in 1996. Asides from the long extension of the cold stratospheric NAT PSC period, the amplitude of the event is shown to be resulting from a record daily total ozone loss rate of 0.7% day���1 after mid-February, never seen before in the Arctic but similar to that observed in the Antarctic over the last 20 yr. This high loss rate is attributed to the absence of NOx in the vortex until the final warming, in contrast to all previous winters where, as shown by the early increase of NO2 diurnal increase, partial renoxification is occurring by import of NOx or HNO3 from the outside after minor warming episodes, leading to partial chlorine deactivation.

    The cause of the absence of renoxification and thus of high loss rate, is attributed to a vortex strength similar to that of the Antarctic but never seen before in the Arctic. The total ozone reduction on 20 March was identical to that of the 2002 Antarctic winter, which ended around 20 September, and a 15-day extension of the cold period would have been enough to reach the mean yearly amplitude of the Antarctic ozone hole. However there is no sign of trend since 1994, neither in PSC volume, early winter denitrification, late vortex renoxification, and vortex strength nor in total ozone loss. The unprecedented large Arctic ozone loss in 2011 appears to resulting from an extreme meteorological event and there is no indication of possible strengthening

  20. SEARCH: Study of Environmental Arctic Change--A System-scale, Cross-disciplinary, Long-term Arctic Research Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiggins, H. V.; Schlosser, P.; Loring, A. J.; Warnick, W. K.; Committee, S. S.

    2008-12-01

    The Study of Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH) is a multi-agency effort to observe, understand, and guide responses to changes in the arctic system. Interrelated environmental changes in the Arctic are affecting ecosystems and living resources and are impacting local and global communities and economic activities. Under the SEARCH program, guided by the Science Steering Committee (SSC), the Interagency Program Management Committee (IPMC), and the Observing, Understanding, and Responding to Change panels, scientists with a variety of expertise--atmosphere, ocean and sea ice, hydrology and cryosphere, terrestrial ecosystems, human dimensions, and paleoclimatology--work together to achieve goals of the program. Over 150 projects and activities contribute to SEARCH implementation. The Observing Change component is underway through National Science Foundation's (NSF) Arctic Observing Network (AON), NOAA-sponsored atmospheric and sea ice observations, and other relevant national and international efforts, including the EU- sponsored Developing Arctic Modelling and Observing Capabilities for Long-term Environmental Studies (DAMOCLES) Program. The Understanding Change component of SEARCH consists of modeling and analysis efforts, with strong linkages to relevant programs such as NSF's Arctic System Synthesis (ARCSS) Program. The Responding to Change element is driven by stakeholder research and applications addressing social and economic concerns. As a national program under the International Study of Arctic Change (ISAC), SEARCH is also working to expand international connections in an effort to better understand the global arctic system. SEARCH is sponsored by eight (8) U.S. agencies, including: the National Science Foundation (NSF), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the Department of Defense (DOD), the Department of Energy (DOE), the Department of the Interior (DOI), the Smithsonian

  1. Baseline studies for monitoring global climatic change in the Arctic environment; A remote sensing-spatial data base approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The US Geological Survey's National Mapping Division has initiated research to establish a long-term monitoring program based on remotely sensed and other digital spatial earth science data bases. Six to eight specific eco-physiographic provinces in Alaska will be identified and studied in support of global climate change research in Arctic regions. A study site in the Colville River delta region has been selected for developing a demonstration/pilot data base, which will serve as a conceptual model for the other eco-physiographic regions yet to be identified. Regional data sets assembled to date include a complete Alaskan coastline digitized from 1:250,000 scale USGS map sheets, a state-wide mosaic of digital elevation model data at 0.5-km resolution, and a digitized version of the physiographic divisions of Alaska. The monitoring program focuses on the compilation and integration of digital spatial data bases for scientific investigations of earth system processes. Research elements associated with the climate change study include the spatial integration of widely varying sources of earth science data and multi-platform, multi-temporal sources of remotely sensed data. Selection of the monitoring sites follow criteria established by the international Geosphere-Biosphere Program and will occur through a series of interagency workshops. The integrated digital spatial data bases for the defined monitoring sites will provide a working tool for researchers to examine global climate change over the past 20 years, as well as provide a basis for future comparative studies

  2. Relevance of hydro-climatic change projection and monitoring for assessment of water cycle changes in the Arctic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bring, Arvid; Destouni, Georgia

    2011-06-01

    Rapid changes to the Arctic hydrological cycle challenge both our process understanding and our ability to find appropriate adaptation strategies. We have investigated the relevance and accuracy development of climate change projections for assessment of water cycle changes in major Arctic drainage basins. Results show relatively good agreement of climate model projections with observed temperature changes, but high model inaccuracy relative to available observation data for precipitation changes. Direct observations further show systematically larger (smaller) runoff than precipitation increases (decreases). This result is partly attributable to uncertainties and systematic bias in precipitation observations, but still indicates that some of the observed increase in Arctic river runoff is due to water storage changes, for example melting permafrost and/or groundwater storage changes, within the drainage basins. Such causes of runoff change affect sea level, in addition to ocean salinity, and inland water resources, ecosystems, and infrastructure. Process-based hydrological modeling and observations, which can resolve changes in evapotranspiration, and groundwater and permafrost storage at and below river basin scales, are needed in order to accurately interpret and translate climate-driven precipitation changes to changes in freshwater cycling and runoff. In contrast to this need, our results show that the density of Arctic runoff monitoring has become increasingly biased and less relevant by decreasing most and being lowest in river basins with the largest expected climatic changes. PMID:21809779

  3. Early Paleogene Arctic terrestrial ecosystems affected by the change of polar hydrology under global warming:Implications for modern climate change at high latitudes

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Gaytha; A.; LANGLOIS

    2010-01-01

    Our understanding of both the role and impact of Arctic environmental changes under the current global warming climate is rather limited despite efforts of improved monitoring and wider assessment through remote sensing technology. Changes of Arctic ecosystems under early Paleogene warming climate provide an analogue to evaluate long-term responses of Arctic environmental alteration to global warming. This study reviews Arctic terrestrial ecosystems and their transformation under marked change of hydrological conditions during the warmest period in early Cenozoic, the Paleocene and Eocene. We describe a new approach to quantitatively reconstruct high latitudinal paleohydrology using compound-specific hydrogen isotope analysis which applies empirically derived genus-specific hydrogen isotope fractionations to in situ biomolecules from fossil plants. We propose a moisture recycling model at the Arctic to explain the reconstructed hydrogen isotope signals of ancient high latitude precipitation during early Paleogene, which bears implications to the likely change of modern Arctic ecosystems under the projected accelerated global warming.

  4. Response of methanogenic archaea to Late Pleistocene and Holocene climate changes in the Siberian Arctic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bischoff, Juliane; Mangelsdorf, Kai; Gattinger, Andreas; Schloter, Michael; Kurchatova, Anna N.; Herzschuh, Ulrike; Wagner, Dirk

    2013-04-01

    order to investigate the link between the methane dynamics in permafrost deposits and climate changes in the past, we studied the abundance, composition, and methane production of methanogenic communities in Late Pleistocene and Holocene sediments of the Siberian Arctic. We detected intervals of increased methane concentrations in Late Pleistocene and Holocene deposits along a 42 ka old permafrost sequence from Kurungnakh Island in the Lena Delta (northeast Siberia). Increased amounts of archaeal life markers (intact phospholipid ethers) and a high variety in genetic fingerprints detected by 16S ribosomal ribonucleic acid gene analyses of methanogenic archaea suggest presently living and presumably active methanogenic archaea in distinct layers predominantly in Holocene deposits, but also in deep frozen ground at 17 m depth. Potential methanogenic activity was confirmed by incubation experiments. By comparing methane concentrations, microbial incubation experiments, gene analysis of methanogens, and microbial life markers (intact phospholipid esters and ethers) to already partly degraded membrane lipids, such as archaeol and isoprenoid glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers, we demonstrated that archaeol likely represents a signal of past methanogenic archaea. The archaeol signal was used to reconstruct the response of methanogenic communities to past temperature changes in the Siberian Arctic, and the data suggest higher methane emissions occurred during warm periods, particularly during an interval in the Late Pleistocene and during the Holocene. This new data on present and past methanogenic communities in the Siberian terrestrial permafrost imply that these microorganisms will respond to the predicted future temperature rise in the Arctic with increasing methane production, as demonstrated in previous warmer periods.

  5. Late Holocene Climate Change Inferred From Varved Proglacial Lake Sediments on Northeastern Baffin Island, Arctic Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, E. K.; Briner, J. P.; Axford, Y.

    2007-12-01

    The Arctic has a disproportionately large response to changes in radiative forcing of climate, and glaciers and arctic lacustrine ecosystems respond sensitively to these changes. Lacustrine ecosystems throughout the Arctic are undergoing rapid regime shifts, including dramatically increased primary productivity and changing aquatic floral and faunal assemblages. Our work on organic lake sediments from northeast Baffin Island shows a large increase in primary productivity, changes in insect (Chironomidae) assemblages including the disappearance of cold stenotherms, and a rise in chironomid-inferred summer water temperatures of at least 1.5°C over the past 50 years, reaching temperatures that were unprecedented in the past 5000 years. Here, we pursue the use of varve thickness, an abiotic temperature proxy, to expand our understanding of late Holocene temperature changes on northeast Baffin Island. We obtained a 14C- and 239+240Pu-dated surface core/percussion core pair from a proglacial lake. Together these cores span > 8000 years and the sediments are varved, as verified by the 239+240Pu analysis, for at least the past 700 years. Magnetic susceptibility was high during the early Holocene, decreased to near-zero values during the mid-Holocene and increased during the past 2500 years to reach the highest values seen in the record around 1000 years ago. Loss-on- ignition had an opposite trend, with the highest values in the mid-Holocene. Sedimentation rate was constant during most of the Holocene (0.03 cm yr -1) and increased during the past 1000 years to 0.05 cm yr -1. These parameters indicate that following the absence of an active glacier during the middle Holocene, glacier activity initiated ~2500 years ago and reached peak activity over the last 1000 years. Our ongoing work to obtain a varve-thickness record for at least the last 700 years, and its calibration to a nearby weather station, will be presented.

  6. Modelling impact of climate change on atmospheric transport and fate of persistent organic pollutants in the Arctic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. M. Hansen

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model (DEHM was applied to investigate how projected climate changes will affect the atmospheric transport of 13 persistent organic pollutants (POPs to the Artic and their environmental fate within the Arctic. Two sets of simulations were performed, one with initial environmental concentrations from a 20 year spin-up simulation and one with initial environmental concentrations set to zero. Each set of simulations consisted of two ten-year time slices representing the present (1990–2000 and future (2090–2100 climate conditions. The same POP emissions were applied in all simulations to ensure that the difference in predicted concentrations for each set of simulations only arises from the difference in climate input. DEHM was driven using meteorological input from the global circulation model, ECHAM/MPI-OM, simulating the SRES A1B climate scenario. Under the applied climate and emission scenarios, the total mass of all compounds was predicted to be up to 20% higher across the Northern Hemisphere. The mass of HCHs within the Arctic was predicted to be up to 39% higher, whereas the change in mass of the PCBs was predicted to range from 14% lower to 17% higher depending on the congener and the applied initial environmental concentrations. The results of this study also indicate that contaminants with no or a short emission history will be more rapidly transported to and build up in the arctic environment in a future warmer climate. The process that dominates the environmental behaviour of POPs in the Arctic under a future warmer climate scenario is the shift in mass of POPs from the surface media to the atmosphere induced by the higher mean temperature. This is to some degree counteracted by higher degradation rates also following the higher mean temperature. The more dominant of these two processes depend on the physical-chemical properties of the compounds. Previous model studies have predicted that the effect of

  7. Next Generation Ecosystem Experiment: Quantification and prediction of coupled processes in the terrestrial Arctic system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hubbard, S. S.; Hinzman, L. D.; Graham, D. E.; Liang, L.; Norby, R.; Riley, W. J.; Rogers, A.; Rowland, J. C.; Thornton, P. E.; Torn, M. S.; Wilson, C. J.; Wullschleger, S. D.; NGEE Scientific Team

    2011-12-01

    Predicting the evolution of Arctic ecosystems to a changing climate is complicated by the many interactions and feedbacks that occur within and between components of the system. A new DOE Biological and Environmental Research project, called the Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments (NGEE) is being initiated to address "how does permafrost degradation in a warming Arctic, and the associated changes in landscape evolution, hydrology, soil biogeochemical processes, and plant community succession, affect feedbacks to the climate system?". A multi-disciplinary team will use observations, experiments, and simulations carried out from the pore to the landscape scales to address these questions. We will combine field research (performed around thermokarst features in Alaska on the North Slope and Seward Peninsula), laboratory research using a variety of approaches and techniques, and remote sensing observations to improve modeling capabilities for high-latitude systems. Our research is organized into four interrelated 'Challenges' to quantify: (1) environmental controls on permafrost degradation and its influence on hydrological state, stocks, fluxes and pathways; (2) mechanisms that drive structural and functional responses of the tundra plant community to changing resource availability; (3) controls, mechanisms and rates driving biodegradation of soil organic matter; and (4) the impact of permafrost degradation on ecosystem albedo, energy partitioning and total climate forcing. Coordinated data acquisition will be performed using a variety of commonly-used terrestrial ecosystem characterization approaches as well as novel molecular microbiological, geophysical, isotopic and synchrotron techniques. These datasets will be used in parallel with models to identify the key controls on coupled geomechanical, hydrological, soil biogeochemical, vegetation and land-surface processes, as well as the manifestation of these coupled processes over a broad range of space and time

  8. What we know, do not know, and need to know about climate change vulnerability in the western Canadian Arctic: a systematic literature review

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This letter systematically reviews and synthesizes scientific and gray literature publications (n = 420) to identify and characterize the nature of climate change vulnerability in the Inuvialuit Settlement Region of the western Canadian Arctic and identify gaps in understanding. The literature documents widespread evidence of climate change, with implications for human and biophysical systems. Adaptations are being employed to manage changing conditions and are indicative of a high adaptive capacity. However, barriers to adaptation are evident and are expected to constrain adaptive capacity to future climate change. Continued climate change is predicted for the region, with differential exposure sensitivity for communities, groups and sectors: a function of social-economic-biophysical characteristics and projected future climatic conditions. Existing climate risks are expected to increase in magnitude and frequency, although the interaction between projected changes and socio-economic-demographic trends has not been assessed. The capacity for adapting to future climate change has also not been studied. The review identifies the importance of targeted vulnerability research that works closely with community members and other stakeholders to address research needs. Importantly, the fully categorized list of reviewed references accompanying this letter will be a valuable resource for those working or planning to work in the region, capturing climate change research published since 1990. At a broader level, the systematic review methodology offers a promising tool for climate/environmental change studies in general where there is a large and emerging body of research but limited understanding of research gaps and needs.

  9. The great challenges in Arctic Ocean paleoceanography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Despite the importance of the Arctic in the climate system, the data base we have from this area is still very weak, and large parts of the climate history have not been recovered at all in sedimentary sections. In order to fill this gap in knowledge, international, multidisciplinary expeditions and projects for scientific drilling/coring in the Arctic Ocean are needed. Key areas and approaches for drilling and recovering undisturbed and complete sedimentary sequences are depth transects across the major ocean ridge systems, i.e., the Lomonosov Ridge, the Alpha-Mendeleev Ridge, and the Chukchi Plateau/Northwind Ridge, the Beaufort, Kara and Laptev sea continental margins, as well as the major Arctic gateways towards the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. The new detailed climate records from the Arctic Ocean spanning time intervals from the Late Cretaceous/Paleogene Greenhouse world to the Neogene-Quaternary Icehouse world and representing short- and long-term climate variability on scales from 10 to 106 years, will give new insights into our understanding of the Arctic Ocean within the global climate system and provide an opportunity to test the performance of climate models used to predict future climate change. With this, studying the Arctic Ocean is certainly one of the major challenges in climate research for the coming decades.

  10. Observed and model simulated 20th century Arctic temperature variability: Canadian Earth System Model CanESM2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chylek, P.; Li, J.; Dubey, M. K.; Wang, M.; Lesins, G.

    2011-08-01

    We present simulations of the 20th century Arctic temperature anomaly from the second generation Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2). The new model couples together an atmosphere-ocean general circulation model, a land-vegetation model and terrestrial and oceanic interactive carbon cycle. It simulates well the observed 20th century Arctic temperature variability that includes the early and late 20th century warming periods and the intervening 1940-1970 period of substantial cooling. The addition of the land-vegetation model and the terrestrial and oceanic interactive carbon cycle to the coupled atmosphere-ocean model improves the agreement with observations from 1900-1970, however, it increases the overestimate of the post 1970 warming. In contrast the older generation coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models Canadian CanCM3 and NCAR/LANL CCSM3, used in the IPCC 2007 climate change assessment report, overestimate the rate of the 20th century Arctic warming by factor of two to three and they are unable to reproduce the observed 20th century Arctic climate variability.

  11. Observed and model simulated 20th century Arctic temperature variability: Canadian Earth System Model CanESM2

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Chylek

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available We present simulations of the 20th century Arctic temperature anomaly from the second generation Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2. The new model couples together an atmosphere-ocean general circulation model, a land-vegetation model and terrestrial and oceanic interactive carbon cycle. It simulates well the observed 20th century Arctic temperature variability that includes the early and late 20th century warming periods and the intervening 1940–1970 period of substantial cooling. The addition of the land-vegetation model and the terrestrial and oceanic interactive carbon cycle to the coupled atmosphere-ocean model improves the agreement with observations from 1900–1970, however, it increases the overestimate of the post 1970 warming. In contrast the older generation coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models Canadian CanCM3 and NCAR/LANL CCSM3, used in the IPCC 2007 climate change assessment report, overestimate the rate of the 20th century Arctic warming by factor of two to three and they are unable to reproduce the observed 20th century Arctic climate variability.

  12. Multiproxy paleoecological evidence of Holocene climatic changes on the Boothia Peninsula, Canadian Arctic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fortin, Marie-Claude; Gajewski, Konrad

    2016-05-01

    A study of chironomid remains in the sediments of Lake JR01 on the Boothia Peninsula in the Central Canadian Arctic provides a high-resolution record of mean July air temperatures for the last 6.9 ka. Diatom and pollen studies have previously been published from this core. Peak Holocene temperatures occurred prior to 5.0 ka, a time when overall aquatic and terrestrial biological production was high. Chironomid-inferred summer air temperatures reached up to 7.5°C during this period. The region of Lake JR01 cooled over the mid- to late-Holocene, with high biological production between 6.1 and 5.4 ka. Biological production decreased again at ∼2 ka and the rate of cooling increased in the past 2 ka, with coolest temperatures occurring between 0.46 and 0.36 ka, coinciding with the Little Ice Age. Although biological production increased in the last 150 yr, the reconstructed temperatures do not indicate a warming during this time. During transitions, either warming or cooling, chironomid production increases, suggesting an ecosystem-level response to climate variability, seen at a number of lakes across the Arctic.

  13. Climate change and the loss of organic archaeological deposits in the Arctic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hollesen, Jørgen; Matthiesen, Henning; Møller, Anders Bjørn; Westergaard-Nielsen, Andreas; Elberling, Bo

    2016-01-01

    The Arctic is warming twice as fast as the global average with overlooked consequences for the preservation of the rich cultural and environmental records that have been stored for millennia in archaeological deposits. In this article, we investigate the oxic degradation of different types of organic archaeological deposits located in different climatic zones in West and South Greenland. The rate of degradation is investigated based on measurements of O2 consumption, CO2 production and heat production at different temperatures and water contents. Overall, there is good consistency between the three methods. However, at one site the, O2 consumption is markedly higher than the CO2 production, highlighting the importance of combining several measures when assessing the vulnerability of organic deposits. The archaeological deposits are highly vulnerable to degradation regardless of age, depositional and environmental conditions. Degradation rates of the deposits are more sensitive to increasing temperatures than natural soils and the process is accompanied by a high microbial heat production that correlates significantly with their total carbon content. We conclude that organic archaeology in the Arctic is facing a critical challenge that requires international action. PMID:27356878

  14. Climate change and the loss of organic archaeological deposits in the Arctic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hollesen, Jørgen; Matthiesen, Henning; Møller, Anders Bjørn; Westergaard-Nielsen, Andreas; Elberling, Bo

    2016-01-01

    The Arctic is warming twice as fast as the global average with overlooked consequences for the preservation of the rich cultural and environmental records that have been stored for millennia in archaeological deposits. In this article, we investigate the oxic degradation of different types of organic archaeological deposits located in different climatic zones in West and South Greenland. The rate of degradation is investigated based on measurements of O2 consumption, CO2 production and heat production at different temperatures and water contents. Overall, there is good consistency between the three methods. However, at one site the, O2 consumption is markedly higher than the CO2 production, highlighting the importance of combining several measures when assessing the vulnerability of organic deposits. The archaeological deposits are highly vulnerable to degradation regardless of age, depositional and environmental conditions. Degradation rates of the deposits are more sensitive to increasing temperatures than natural soils and the process is accompanied by a high microbial heat production that correlates significantly with their total carbon content. We conclude that organic archaeology in the Arctic is facing a critical challenge that requires international action. PMID:27356878

  15. Arctic Climate and Terrestrial Vegetation Responses During the Middle to Late Eocene and Early Oligocene: Colder Winters Preceded Cool-Down.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenwood, D. R.; Eldrett, J.

    2006-12-01

    The late Eocene to early Oligocene is recognized as an interval of substantial change in the global climate, with isotopic proxies of climate indicating a significant drop in sea surface temperatures. Other studies have shown, however that at middle latitudes that terrestrial mean annual temperature did not change significantly over this interval, and that the major change was likely a shift towards a greater range of seasonal temperatures; colder winters and warmer summers. Previous analyses of high latitude (Arctic) middle Eocene climate using both leaf physiognomic analysis and qualitative analysis of identified nearest living relatives of terrestrial floras indicated upper microthermal environments (mean annual temp. or MAT ca 10°C but perhaps as high as 15°C, coldest month mean temp. or CMMT ca 0°C) for Axel Heiberg Island in the Arctic Archipelago, but did not address precipitation nor provide data on the Eocene-Oligocene transition in the Arctic. Presented here are new estimates of temperature and precipitation (annual and season amounts) for the Arctic based on NLR analysis of terrestrial plant palynomorphs (spores and pollen) from the ODP 913B and 985 cores from near Greenland. The record of climate for the Greenland cores show a similar climate in the middle Eocene to that previously estimated for Axel Heiberg Island further to the west, with MAT 10- 15°C but with CMMT >5°C. Precipitation was high (mean annual precip. or MAP >180 cm/yr), although with large uncertainties attached to the estimate. The climate proxy record for the late Eocene to early Oligocene shows a lack of change in MAT and MAP over the time interval. Consistent with other published records at middle latitudes, however, winter temperatures (as CMMT) show greater variability leading up to the E-O boundary, and consistently cooler values in the early Oligocene (CMMT 5°C). Plant groups sensitive to freezing such as palms and the floating water fern Azolla were present in the warm

  16. An atmosphere-ocean GCM modelling study of the climate response to changing Arctic seaways in the early Cenozoic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, C. D.; Legrande, A. N.; Tripati, A. K.

    2008-12-01

    previous findings on the potential influence of Arctic gateways on ocean overturning and also suggests that Northern Hemisphere climate, particularly in the North Atlantic, was very sensitive to changes in Arctic seaways. This result is of particular significance when considered in the context of the Paleocene Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM). Volcanic activity prior to the PETM may have been responsible for the formation of a sub-aerial barrier in the North Atlantic, and consequently may have driven warming of intermediate waters sufficient to destabilize methane clathrates. Evidence for freshening of Arctic ocean waters prior to the PETM would support this hypothesis.

  17. Projected Impact of Climate Change on the Energy Budget of the Arctic Ocean by a Global Climate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, James R.; Russell, Gary L.; Hansen, James E. (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    The annual energy budget of the Arctic Ocean is characterized by a net heat loss at the air-sea interface that is balanced by oceanic heat transport into the Arctic. The energy loss at the air-sea interface is due to the combined effects of radiative, sensible, and latent heat fluxes. The inflow of heat by the ocean can be divided into two components: the transport of water masses of different temperatures between the Arctic and the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans and the export of sea ice, primarily through Fram Strait. Two 150-year simulations (1950-2099) of a global climate model are used to examine how this balance might change if atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs) increase. One is a control simulation for the present climate with constant 1950 atmospheric composition, and the other is a transient experiment with observed GHGs from 1950 to 1990 and 0.5% annual compounded increases of CO2 after 1990. For the present climate the model agrees well with observations of radiative fluxes at the top of the atmosphere, atmospheric advective energy transport into the Arctic, and surface air temperature. It also simulates the seasonal cycle and summer increase of cloud cover and the seasonal cycle of sea-ice cover. In addition, the changes in high-latitude surface air temperature and sea-ice cover in the GHG experiment are consistent with observed changes during the last 40 and 20 years, respectively. Relative to the control, the last 50-year period of the GHG experiment indicates that even though the net annual incident solar radiation at the surface decreases by 4.6 W(per square meters) (because of greater cloud cover and increased cloud optical depth), the absorbed solar radiation increases by 2.8 W(per square meters) (because of less sea ice). Increased cloud cover and warmer air also cause increased downward thermal radiation at the surface so that the net radiation into the ocean increases by 5.0 Wm-2. The annual increase in radiation into the ocean, however, is

  18. Sensitivity of Pliocene Arctic climate to orbital forcing, atmospheric CO2 and sea ice albedo parameterisation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howell, Fergus W.; Haywood, Alan M.; Dowsett, Harry J.; Pickering, Steven J.

    2016-05-01

    General circulation model (GCM) simulations of the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP, 3.264 to 3.025 Myr ago) do not reproduce the magnitude of Northern Hemisphere high latitude surface air and sea surface temperature (SAT and SST) warming that proxy data indicate. There is also large uncertainty regarding the state of sea ice cover in the mPWP. Evidence for both perennial and seasonal mPWP Arctic sea ice is found through analyses of marine sediments, whilst in a multi-model ensemble of mPWP climate simulations, half of the ensemble simulated ice-free summer Arctic conditions. Given the strong influence that sea ice exerts on high latitude temperatures, an understanding of the nature of mPWP Arctic sea ice would be highly beneficial. Using the HadCM3 GCM, this paper explores the impact of various combinations of potential mPWP orbital forcing, atmospheric CO2 concentrations and minimum sea ice albedo on sea ice extent and high latitude warming. The focus is on the Northern Hemisphere, due to availability of proxy data, and the large data-model discrepancies in this region. Changes in orbital forcings are demonstrated to be sufficient to alter the Arctic sea ice simulated by HadCM3 from perennial to seasonal. However, this occurs only when atmospheric CO2 concentrations exceed 300 ppm. Reduction of the minimum sea ice albedo from 0.5 to 0.2 is also sufficient to simulate seasonal sea ice, with any of the combinations of atmospheric CO2 and orbital forcing. Compared to a mPWP control simulation, monthly mean increases north of 60°N of up to 4.2 °C (SST) and 9.8 °C (SAT) are simulated. With varying CO2, orbit and sea ice albedo values we are able to reproduce proxy temperature records that lean towards modest levels of high latitude warming, but other proxy data showing greater warming remain beyond the reach of our model. This highlights the importance of additional proxy records at high latitudes and ongoing efforts to compare proxy signals between sites.

  19. Hydro-climatic and lake change patterns in Arctic permafrost and non-permafrost areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karlsson, Johanna Mård; Jaramillo, Fernando; Destouni, Georgia

    2015-10-01

    This paper investigates patterns of lake-area and hydro-climatic change in Arctic river basins, and possible influence of permafrost change reflected in such patterns. A salient change pattern, emerging across all investigated basins in both permafrost and non-permafrost areas, is an opposite change direction in runoff (R) from that in precipitation (P). To explain this change contrast, an increase (decrease) in relative water-balance constrained evapotranspiration ETwb/P is required where R decreases (increases). Increasing temporal variability of daily river discharge (sdQ) is found in all basins with spatially extensive lake decrease, which also exhibit decrease in ETwb/P. Clear indication of basin-wide permafrost thaw is found in only one basin, and is possible in two more, but unlikely in the largest of the total four investigated permafrost basins.

  20. Methane emissions from Alaska arctic tundra in response to climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In situ observations of methane emissions from the Alaska North Slope in 1987 and 1989 provide insight into the environmental interactions regulating methane emissions and into the local- and regional-scale response of the arctic tundra to interannual environmental variability. Inferences regarding climate change are based on in situ measurements of methane emissions, regional landscape characterizations derived from Landsat Multispectral Scanner satellite data, and projected regional-scale emissions based on observed interannual temperature differences and simulated changes in the spatial distribution of methane emissions. The authors results suggest that biogenic methane emissions from arctic tundra will be significantly perturbed by climatic change, leading to warmer summer soil temperatures and to vertical displacement of the regional water table. The effect of increased soil temperatures on methane emissions resulting from anaerobic decomposition in northern wetlands will be to both increase total emissions and to increase interannual and seasonal variability. The magnitude of these effects will be determined by those factors affecting the areal distribution of methane emission rates through regulation of the regional water table. At local scales, the observed 4.7C increase in mid-summer soil temperatures between 1987 and 1989 resulted in a 3.2-fold increase in the rate of methane emissions from anaerobic soils. The observed linear temperature response was then projected to the regional scale of the Alaska North Slope under three environmental scenarios. Under moderately drier environmental conditions than observed in 1987, a 4C mid-summer increase in soil temperatures more than doubled regional methane emissions relative to the 1987 regional mean of 0.72 mg m-2 hr-1 over the 88,408 km2 study area

  1. Climate change and Arctic ecosystems: 2. Modeling, paleodata-model comparisons, and future projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaplan, J.O.; Bigelow, N.H.; Prentice, I.C.; Harrison, S.P.; Bartlein, P.J.; Christensen, T.R.; Cramer, W.; Matveyeva, N.V.; McGuire, A.D.; Murray, D.F.; Razzhivin, V.Y.; Smith, B.; Walker, D. A.; Anderson, P.M.; Andreev, A.A.; Brubaker, L.B.; Edwards, M.E.; Lozhkin, A.V.

    2003-01-01

    Large variations in the composition, structure, and function of Arctic ecosystems are determined by climatic gradients, especially of growing-season warmth, soil moisture, and snow cover. A unified circumpolar classification recognizing five types of tundra was developed. The geographic distributions of vegetation types north of 55??N, including the position of the forest limit and the distributions of the tundra types, could be predicted from climatology using a small set of plant functional types embedded in the biogeochemistry-biogeography model BIOME4. Several palaeoclimate simulations for the last glacial maximum (LGM) and mid-Holocene were used to explore the possibility of simulating past vegetation patterns, which are independently known based on pollen data. The broad outlines of observed changes in vegetation were captured. LGM simulations showed the major reduction of forest, the great extension of graminoid and forb tundra, and the restriction of low- and high-shrub tundra (although not all models produced sufficiently dry conditions to mimic the full observed change). Mid-Holocene simulations reproduced the contrast between northward forest extension in western and central Siberia and stability of the forest limit in Beringia. Projection of the effect of a continued exponential increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration, based on a transient ocean-atmosphere simulation including sulfate aerosol effects, suggests a potential for larger changes in Arctic ecosystems during the 21st century than have occurred between mid-Holocene and present. Simulated physiological effects of the CO2 increase (to > 700 ppm) at high latitudes were slight compared with the effects of the change in climate.

  2. Effects of changes in climate on landscape and regional processes, and feedbacks to the climate system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Callaghan, Terry V; Björn, Lars Olof; Chernov, Yuri; Chapin, Terry; Christensen, Torben R; Huntley, Brian; Ims, Rolf A; Johansson, Margareta; Jolly, Dyanna; Jonasson, Sven; Matveyeva, Nadya; Panikov, Nicolai; Oechel, Walter; Shaver, Gus; Schaphoff, Sibyll; Sitch, Stephen

    2004-11-01

    Biological and physical processes in the Arctic system operate at various temporal and spatial scales to impact large-scale feedbacks and interactions with the earth system. There are four main potential feedback mechanisms between the impacts of climate change on the Arctic and the global climate system: albedo, greenhouse gas emissions or uptake by ecosystems, greenhouse gas emissions from methane hydrates, and increased freshwater fluxes that could affect the thermohaline circulation. All these feedbacks are controlled to some extent by changes in ecosystem distribution and character and particularly by large-scale movement of vegetation zones. Indications from a few, full annual measurements of CO2 fluxes are that currently the source areas exceed sink areas in geographical distribution. The little available information on CH4 sources indicates that emissions at the landscape level are of great importance for the total greenhouse balance of the circumpolar North. Energy and water balances of Arctic landscapes are also important feedback mechanisms in a changing climate. Increasing density and spatial expansion of vegetation will cause a lowering of the albedo and more energy to be absorbed on the ground. This effect is likely to exceed the negative feedback of increased C sequestration in greater primary productivity resulting from the displacements of areas of polar desert by tundra, and areas of tundra by forest. The degradation of permafrost has complex consequences for trace gas dynamics. In areas of discontinuous permafrost, warming, will lead to a complete loss of the permafrost. Depending on local hydrological conditions this may in turn lead to a wetting or drying of the environment with subsequent implications for greenhouse gas fluxes. Overall, the complex interactions between processes contributing to feedbacks, variability over time and space in these processes, and insufficient data have generated considerable uncertainties in estimating the net

  3. Deglacial and Holocene Evolution of Climate and Terrestrial Ecosystems in the Western Arctic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, M. E.

    2006-12-01

    The late- and post-glacial history of the Western Arctic land area is distinguished by the region being largely unglaciated (away from the coastal cordillera), and by a considerable reduction in areal extent due to sea-level rise. Between ca. 15 and 10 cal ka B.P. rising summer temperatures and increasing precipitation related to orbital forcing and adjustments in the hemispheric circulation resulted in widespread replacement of herbaceous vegetation with deciduous woody plants, rising lake levels, reduction of eolian activity, and the onset of thermokarst erosion. These changes had impacts at both global and regional levels, e.g., reduced atmospheric dust loading, increased carbon flux to the atmosphere, and feedbacks to the surface energy balance. The Younger Dryas event (ca. 12.9-11.6 cal ka B.P.) is not strongly expressed in terrestrial records. Some localities near the Pacific coast and in eastern Siberia record a weak to moderate climatic reversal, but central, northern, and eastern areas show no consistent signal. This suggests a muted response of the North Pacific and/or adjacent lands to events in the North Atlantic. However, the nearly coincident flooding and eventual breaching of the Bering land bridge probably reduced continentality in adjacent regions and may be linked to early-Holocene increases in effective moisture in both summer and winter. At ca. 10 cal ka B.P. evergreen conifers expanded to dominance or co-dominance much of the forest zone on both sides of the Bering Strait. This appears to be an example of a moisture-driven vegetation change in a region normally expected to respond largely to temperature. Particularly in Alaska and NW Canada, it likely led to two significant ecosystem changes: a vegetation-driven shift in the fire regime and enhanced paludification. The former could have influenced atmospheric chemistry and the latter nutrient availability, the status of permafrost, and the export of organic carbon and other nutrients to

  4. Landscape and Hydrological Transformation in the Canadian High Arctic: Climate Change and Permafrost Degradation As Drivers of Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamoureux, S. F.; Lafreniere, M. J.

    2014-12-01

    Recent climate warming and landscape instability arising from permafrost degradation in the Canadian High Arctic have resulted in significant changes to the hydrological system. We have undertaken an integrated watershed and permafrost research program at the Cape Bounty Arctic Watershed Observatory (75°N, 109°W) in paired watershed-lake systems to assess the impact of these changes. Research has captured hydrological changes resulting from exceptional warmth, and permafrost degradation and disturbance. Results highlight the contrasting effect of thermal (deeper soil thaw) versus physical perturbation (slope failures and permafrost degradation). Thermal perturbation applies to most of the landscape, and results indicate that ground ice melt alters flow and mobilizes solutes for a number of years following a single warm year. These effects are measureable at the slope-catchment scale, especially during baseflow. By contrast, physical disturbance is highly localized and produces high sediment and particulate carbon erosion from slopes, but downstream particulate delivery is dependent on surface connectivity. Recovery from disturbances appears to occur rapidly, and continued geomorphic change and new slope channels result in sustained delivery of particulates to channels. The result is increased long term landscape heterogeneity with respect to erosion compared to the pre-disturbance condition. Downstream channel response to particulate loading further dampens the response to physical disturbance through channel storage of material. Hence, at the larger watershed scale, the effect of physical perturbation is minimal in the initial years of recovery. These results point to a landscape that has been substantially impacted by recent hydrological and permafrost changes. Understanding and distinguishing these impacts provides a basis for systematically evaluating biogeochemical cycling and ecosystem responses in aquatic settings.

  5. Climate change, its consequences in the Arctic and around the world

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jayer, Sophie; Le Divenah, Claudie; Rosetti, Alexandra

    2010-05-01

    CLIMATE CHANGE, ITS CONSEQUENCES IN THE ARCTIC AND AROUND THE WORLD This project has been led in a French European Class either in physics, chemistry, geology, biology and English by: - Sophie Jayer (Biology and geology teacher) - Claudie Le Divenah (Physics and Chemistry teacher) - Alexandra Rosetti (English teacher) As it was a European class, all the classes were held in English. The goals were - to have the students study both sciences and English - to show them that all these subjects were linked in real life and how important English was for scientists - To give them a glimpse of what scientific researches were both in the field and in a lab - To get them involved in the polar year - To make them work on the notion of world citizenship and raise their awareness about the issue of sustainable development We first introduced the Damocles and Tara project to the pupils. Then we studied the Arctic's geography, their inhabitants and ecosystem (Biology and English). In physics and chemistry, they talked about their working conditions, equipments and what kind of analysis they would do. In geology, we studied the evolution of the sea ice and its consequences but also climate changes of the past, the influence of climate on human history and the evidences of global warming nowadays (the pupils had to find information and to make a presentation about different climate events that could be evidence of global warming). A man who works on a research boat for a French national organization came in our class and was able to present his work, the conditions of life on board and to answer the pupils' questions. This is a quick summary of our work. If you need any additional information before the GIFT, please contact me at: sophie.jayer@neuf.fr or Sophie Jayer 61 A route de Paris 78550 Bazainville 0033 (0)1 34 87 61 06 0033 (0)6 20 53 84 65 (mobile) Our group teaches at Emilie de Breteuil High School In Montigny le Bretonneux, 30 km southwest of Paris Lycée Emilie de

  6. Integrating Research on Global Climate Change and Human Use of the Oceans: a Geospatial Method for Daily Monitoring of Sea Ice and Ship Traffic in the Arctic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eucker, W.; McGillivary, P. A.

    2012-12-01

    One apparent consequence of global climate change has been a decrease in the extent and thickness of Arctic sea ice more rapidly than models have predicted, while Arctic ship traffic has likewise increased beyond economic predictions. To ensure representative observations of changing climate conditions and human use of the Arctic Ocean, we concluded a method of tracking daily changes in both sea ice and shipping in the Arctic Ocean was needed. Such a process improves the availability of sea ice data for navigational safety and allows future developments to be monitored for understanding of ice and shipping in relation to policy decisions appropriate to optimize sustainable use of a changing Arctic Ocean. The impetus for this work was the 2009 Arctic Marine Shipping Assessment (AMSA) which provided baseline data on Arctic ship traffic. AMSA was based on responses from circumpolar countries, was manpower intensive, and took years to compile. A more timely method of monitoring human use of the Arctic Ocean was needed. To address this, a method of monitoring sea ice on a scale relevant to ship-navigation (internationally required on ships over a certain size, which includes most commercial vessels in the Arctic Ocean. Daily AIS and sea ice observations were chosen for this study. Results of this method of geospatial analysis of the entire arctic are presented for a year long period from April 1, 2010 to March 31, 2011. This confirmed the dominance of European Arctic ship traffic. Arctic shipping is maximal during August and diminishes in September with a minimum in winter, although some shipping continues year-round in perennially ice-free areas. Data are analyzed for the four principal arctic quadrants around the North Pole by season for number and nationality of vessels. The goal of this study was not merely to monitor ship traffic and ice conditions concurrently, but also to demonstrate a new method of ocean monitoring based on daily assimilation, data fusion, and

  7. Observed and projected climate change implications for urban infrastructure and society in the Russian Arctic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Streletskiy, D. A.; Shiklomanov, N. I.; Efimov, S. V.; Shkolnik, I.

    2012-12-01

    The discoveries of mineral resources followed by an extensive economic development of the Russian North in 1960s led to a development of complex infrastructure on permafrost and urbanization of the Russian Arctic. Despite the mass migration from the northern regions, followed by the collapse of the Soviet Union and the diminishing government support, the Russian Arctic inherited massive infrastructure and remained predominantly urban. Currently, only in five districts bordering Arctic Ocean more than 1.4 million people live in urban-style buildings built on permafrost. Majority of the buildings are constructed assuming the equilibrium conditions of heat-exchange between atmosphere and permafrost underneath. This is usually achieved by construction on piles with ventilated cellars allowing ground cooling in a winter and shading in a summer. The ability of the foundations to carry structural load or foundation bearing capacity (FBC) depends on permafrost properties and changes according to permafrost temperature and active-layer depth. Climate warming observed in recent decades created conditions of diminishing FBC and resulted in deformations and failures of structures built on permafrost. This work is focused on quantitative assessment of these changes at a regional scale. In order to estimate the role of climate change on stability of structures build according to the passive principle, the permafrost-geotechnical model was developed. The historical changes were assessed by comparing model results for period associated with industrialization and construction boom in the Russian North (1965-1975) and present conditions (1995-2005) using NCEP climatic datasets. Projected changes in FBC according to A2 IPCC scenario for the mid-21st century (2041-2060) relative to baseline period (1981-2000) were assessed using output from the ensemble of MGO RCM climate change simulations. It has been found that substantial decrease in FBC will likely occur for the majority of

  8. A regional climate model for the Arctic and the North Atlantic; Ein regionales Klimamodell fuer die Arktis und den Nordatlantik

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berndt, H.

    2001-07-01

    The Arctic and the subpolar region of the North Atlantic with their complex net of mechanisms and feedbacks play an important role in the climate system. Because of the sparse observations and the low resolution of the global models the high-resolution regional climate model REMO provides an improved tool to investigate arctic processes. REMO is based on the former numerical weather prediction model EM of the German Weather Service (DWD) and was further developed at the Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology (MPIfM) in Hamburg. It has two different parameterization schemes - the original one called DWD-physics and additionally the ECHAM4-physics from MPIfM. The dynamical scheme is in both cases identical. In a first step REMO is adapted to the new domain. This configuration covers the Arctic and the North Atlantic down to 40 N with a horizontal resolution of 0.5 x 0.5 and 121 x 145 grid points. Different periods are simulated with DWD- and ECHAM4-Physics in forecast - as well as in climate-mode. Lateral boundary conditions are taken from NCEP/NCAR-reanalysis. Comparing REMO with ship observations in the Labrador Sea yields a better correspondence than the reanalysis data. Simulated precipitation is overestimated most probably due to unrealistic high humidity in the NCEP/NCAR-reanalysis. Observed sensible heat fluxes are much lower than the REMO and NCEP/NCAR simulated fluxes. REMO simulations in climate- and forecast-mode with ECHAM4-parameterizations are compared with measured surface temperatures and precipitation distributions. While there are numerically generated spectral spikes in the NCEP/NCAR precipitation fields in the Arctic, they are not found in the REMO results. In a sensitivity study the impact of higher surface roughness in the marginal ice zone is investigated. Ensemble experiments show the high internal variability masking any signals due to the changed roughness length. This high internal variability is mostly due to the large model domain and the

  9. Arctic tides from GPS on sea ice

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kildegaard Rose, Stine; Skourup, Henriette; Forsberg, René

    The presence of sea-ice in the Arctic Ocean plays a significant role in the Arctic climate. Sea ice dampens the ocean tide amplitude with the result that global tidal models which use only astronomical data perform less accurately in the polar regions. This study presents a kinematic processing of...... Global Positioning System (GPS) buoys placed on sea-ice at five different sites north of Greenland for the study of sea level height and tidal analysis to improve tidal models in the Central Arctic. The GPS measurements are compared with the Arctic tidal model AOTIM-5, which assimilates tide-gauges and...

  10. Vegetation and climate history in the Laptev Sea region (Arctic Siberia) during Late Quaternary inferred from pollen records

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andreev, Andrei A.; Schirrmeister, Lutz; Tarasov, Pavel E.; Ganopolski, Andrey; Brovkin, Viktor; Siegert, Christine; Wetterich, Sebastian; Hubberten, Hans-Wolfgang

    2011-08-01

    Paleoenvironmental records from a number of permafrost sections and lacustrine cores from the Laptev Sea region dated by several methods ( 14C-AMS, TL, IRSL, OSL and 230Th/U) were analyzed for pollen and palynomorphs. The records reveal the environmental history for the last ca 200 kyr. For interglacial pollen spectra, quantitative temperature values were estimated using the best modern analogue method. Sparse grass-sedge vegetation indicating arctic desert environmental conditions existed prior to 200 kyr ago. Dense, wet grass-sedge tundra habitats dominated during an interstadial ca 200-190 kyr ago, reflecting warmer and wetter summers than before. Sparser vegetation communities point to much more severe stadial conditions ca 190-130 kyr ago. Open grass and Artemisia communities with shrub stands ( Alnus fruticosa, Salix, Betula nana) in more protected and moister places characterized the beginning of the Last Interglacial indicate climate conditions similar to present. Shrub tundra ( Alnus fruticosa and Betula nana) dominated during the middle Eemian climatic optimum, when summer temperatures were 4-5 °C higher than today. Early-Weichselian sparse grass-sedge dominated vegetation indicates climate conditions colder and dryer than in the previous interval. Middle Weichselian Interstadial records indicate moister and warmer climate conditions, for example, in the interval 40-32 kyr BP Salix was present within dense, grass-sedge dominated vegetation. Sedge-grass- Artemisia-communities indicate that climate became cooler and drier after 30 kyr BP, and cold, dry conditions characterized the Late Weichselian, ca 26-16 kyr BP, when grass-dominated communities with Caryophyllaceae, Asteraceae, Cichoriaceae, Selaginella rupestris were present. From 16 to 12 kyr BP, grass-sedge communities with Caryophyllaceae, Asteraceae, and Cichoriaceae indicate climate was significantly warmer and moister than during the previous interval. The presence of Salix and Betula reflect

  11. Simulating the effects of climate change and climate variability on carbon dynamics in Arctic tundra

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stieglitz, Marc; Giblin, Anne; Hobbie, John; Williams, Matthew; Kling, George

    2000-12-01

    Through a simple modeling exercise, three mechanisms have been identified, each operating at a different timescale, that may govern carbon dynamics in Arctic tundra regions and partially explain observed CO2 flux variability. At short timescales the biosphere reacts to meteorological forcing. Drier conditions are associated with aerobic soil decomposition, a large CO2efflux, and a net ecosystem loss of carbon. Cooler and moister conditions favor slower anaerobic decomposition in soils, good growing conditions, and terrestrial carbon sequestration. At intermediate timescales, periods of terrestrial carbon loss are directly linked to periods of carbon sequestration by the ability of the ecosystem to retain labile nitrogen. Labile nitrogen released to the soil during periods when the tundra is a source of carbon (soil respiration > net primary productivity) is retained within the ecosystem and accessed during periods when carbon sequestration is favored (net primary productivity > soil respiration). Finally, the ability of vegetation to respond to long-term changes in soil nutrient status via changes in leaf nitrogen and leaf area index modulates this dynamic at intermediate to long timescales.

  12. Tundra shrubification and tree-line advance amplify arctic climate warming: results from an individual-based dynamic vegetation model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    One major challenge to the improvement of regional climate scenarios for the northern high latitudes is to understand land surface feedbacks associated with vegetation shifts and ecosystem biogeochemical cycling. We employed a customized, Arctic version of the individual-based dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS to simulate the dynamics of upland and wetland ecosystems under a regional climate model–downscaled future climate projection for the Arctic and Subarctic. The simulated vegetation distribution (1961–1990) agreed well with a composite map of actual arctic vegetation. In the future (2051–2080), a poleward advance of the forest–tundra boundary, an expansion of tall shrub tundra, and a dominance shift from deciduous to evergreen boreal conifer forest over northern Eurasia were simulated. Ecosystems continued to sink carbon for the next few decades, although the size of these sinks diminished by the late 21st century. Hot spots of increased CH4 emission were identified in the peatlands near Hudson Bay and western Siberia. In terms of their net impact on regional climate forcing, positive feedbacks associated with the negative effects of tree-line, shrub cover and forest phenology changes on snow-season albedo, as well as the larger sources of CH4, may potentially dominate over negative feedbacks due to increased carbon sequestration and increased latent heat flux. (letter)

  13. The impact of a seasonally ice free Arctic Ocean on the climate and surface mass balance of Svalbard

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. J. Day

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available General circulation models (GCMs predict a rapid decrease in Arctic sea ice extent in the 21st century. The decline of September sea ice is expected to continue until the Arctic Ocean is seasonally ice free, leading to a much perturbed Arctic climate with large changes in surface energy flux. Svalbard, located on the present day sea ice edge, contains many low lying ice caps and glaciers which are extremely sensitive to changes in climate. Records of past accumulation indicate that the surface mass balance (SMB of Svalbard is also sensitive to changes in the position of the sea ice edge.

    To investigate the impact of 21st Century sea ice decline on the climate and surface mass balance of Svalbard a high resolution (25 km regional climate model (RCM was forced with a repeating cycle of sea surface temperatures (SSTs and sea ice conditions for the periods 1961–1990 and 2061–2090. By prescribing 20th Century SSTs and 21st Century sea ice for one simulation, the impact of sea ice decline is isolated. This study shows that the coupled impact of sea ice decline and SST increase results in a decrease in SMB, whereas the impact of sea ice decline alone causes an increase in SMB of similar magnitude.

  14. Past climate variability and change in the Arctic and at high latitudes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alley, Richard B.; Brigham-Grette, Julie; Miller, Gifford H.; Polyak, Leonid; U.S. Climate Change Science Program; Subcommittee on Global Change Research; U.S. Geological Survey

    2009-01-01

    Paleoclimate records play a key role in our understanding of Earth's past and present climate system and in our confidence in predicting future climate changes. Paleoclimate data help to elucidate past and present active mechanisms of climate change by placing the short instrumental record into a longer term context and by permitting models to be tested beyond the limited time that instrumental measurements have been available.

  15. McCall Glacier record of Arctic climate change: Interpreting a northern Alaska ice core with regional water isotopes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klein, E. S.; Nolan, M.; McConnell, J.; Sigl, M.; Cherry, J.; Young, J.; Welker, J. M.

    2016-01-01

    We explored modern precipitation and ice core isotope ratios to better understand both modern and paleo climate in the Arctic. Paleoclimate reconstructions require an understanding of how modern synoptic climate influences proxies used in those reconstructions, such as water isotopes. Therefore we measured periodic precipitation samples at Toolik Lake Field Station (Toolik) in the northern foothills of the Brooks Range in the Alaskan Arctic to determine δ18O and δ2H. We applied this multi-decadal local precipitation δ18O/temperature regression to ∼65 years of McCall Glacier (also in the Brooks Range) ice core isotope measurements and found an increase in reconstructed temperatures over the late-20th and early-21st centuries. We also show that the McCall Glacier δ18O isotope record is negatively correlated with the winter bidecadal North Pacific Index (NPI) climate oscillation. McCall Glacier deuterium excess (d-excess, δ2H - 8*δ18O) values display a bidecadal periodicity coherent with the NPI and suggest shifts from more southwestern Bering Sea moisture sources with less sea ice (lower d-excess values) to more northern Arctic Ocean moisture sources with more sea ice (higher d-excess values). Northern ice covered Arctic Ocean McCall Glacier moisture sources are associated with weak Aleutian Low (AL) circulation patterns and the southern moisture sources with strong AL patterns. Ice core d-excess values significantly decrease over the record, coincident with warmer temperatures and a significant reduction in Alaska sea ice concentration, which suggests that ice free northern ocean waters are increasingly serving as terrestrial precipitation moisture sources; a concept recently proposed by modeling studies and also present in Greenland ice core d-excess values during previous transitions to warm periods. This study also shows the efficacy and importance of using ice cores from Arctic valley glaciers in paleoclimate reconstructions.

  16. Paradoxical cold conditions during the medieval climate anomaly in the Western Arctic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jomelli, Vincent; Lane, Timothy; Favier, Vincent; Masson-Delmotte, Valerie; Swingedouw, Didier; Rinterknecht, Vincent; Schimmelpfennig, Irene; Brunstein, Daniel; Verfaillie, Deborah; Adamson, Kathryn; Leanni, Laëtitia; Mokadem, Fatima

    2016-01-01

    In the Northern Hemisphere, most mountain glaciers experienced their largest extent in the last millennium during the Little Ice Age (1450 to 1850 CE, LIA), a period marked by colder hemispheric temperatures than the Medieval Climate Anomaly (950 to 1250 CE, MCA), a period which coincided with glacier retreat. Here, we present a new moraine chronology based on (36)Cl surface exposure dating from Lyngmarksbræen glacier, West Greenland. Consistent with other glaciers in the western Arctic, Lyngmarksbræen glacier experienced several advances during the last millennium, the first one at the end of the MCA, in ~1200 CE, was of similar amplitude to two other advances during the LIA. In the absence of any significant changes in accumulation records from South Greenland ice cores, we attribute this expansion to multi-decadal summer cooling likely driven by volcanic and/or solar forcing, and associated regional sea-ice feedbacks. Such regional multi-decadal cold conditions at the end of the MCA are neither resolved in temperature reconstructions from other parts of the Northern Hemisphere, nor captured in last millennium climate simulations. PMID:27609585

  17. Arctic Wears - Perspectives on Arctic Clothing

    OpenAIRE

    Konola, Sanna; Kähkönen, Päivi

    2015-01-01

    Arctic issues are rising around us on every field at the point of view of environment, sustainability, climate change, indigenous peoples’ rights, design and society, snow and ice building knowledge, challenges and possibilities in Arctic areas. The Arctic is written in Finland’s future strategies, and in 2017 Finland assumes the chairmanship of Arctic Council. In the northernmost university of European Union, University of Lapland, the northern issues have always been written in the DNA ...

  18. Reconstruction of Centennial and Millennial-scale Climate and Environmental Variability during the Holocene in the Central Canadian Arctic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rolland, N.; Porinchu, D.; MacDonald, G.; Moser, K.

    2007-12-01

    The Arctic and sub-Arctic regions are experiencing dramatic changes in surface temperature, sea-ice extent, glacial melt, river discharge, soil carbon storage and snow cover. According to the IPCC high latitude regions are expected to warm between 4°C and 7°C over the next 100 years. The magnitude of warming and the rate at which it occurs will dwarf any previous warming episodes experienced by latitude regions over the last 11,000 years. It is critical that we improve our understanding of how the Arctic and sub-Arctic regions responded to past periods of warming, especially in light of the changes these regions will be experiencing over the next 100 years. One of the lines of evidence increasingly utilized in multi-proxy paleolimnological research is the Chironomidae (Insecta: Diptera). Also known as non-biting midge flies, chironomids are ubiquitous, frequently the most abundant insects found in freshwater ecosystems and very sensitive to environmental conditions. This research uses Chironomidae to quantitatively characterize climate and environmental conditions of the continental interior of Arctic Canada during the Holocene. Spanning four major vegetation zones (boreal forest, forest-tundra, birch tundra and herb tundra), the surface samples of 80 lakes recovered from the central Canadian Arctic were used to assess the relationship of 22 environmental variables with the chironomid distribution. Redundancy analysis (RDA) identified four variables, total Kjeldahl nitrogen (TKN), pH, summer surface water temperature (SSWT) and depth, which best explain the variance in the distribution of chironomids within these ecoregions. In order to provide new quantitative estimates of SSWT, a 1-component weighted average partial least square (WA-PLS) model was developed (r2jack = 0.76, RMSEP = 1.42°C) and applied downcore in two low arctic continental Nunavut lakes located approximately 50 km and 200 km north of modern treeline. This robust midge-inferred temperature

  19. Climate change and credibility of fish stock agreements : the case of the north-east arctic cod

    OpenAIRE

    Ekerhovd, Nils-Arne

    2010-01-01

    We simulate how an increase in the productivity of the North-East Arctic cod stock would affect the Russian-Norwegian cooperation on the management of the stock. The productivity increase is linked to environmental conditions in the sea and to climate change through a temperature-dependent stock-recruitment relationship, where the numbers of recruits is positively related to the sea temperature given the spawning stock biomass. Increased recruitment and productivity of the stock improved the...

  20. Using records from submarine, aircraft and satellites to evaluate climate model simulations of Arctic sea ice thickness

    OpenAIRE

    J. Stroeve; Barrett, A; Serreze, M.; Schweiger, A

    2014-01-01

    Arctic sea ice thickness distributions from models participating in the World Climate Research Programme Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) are evaluated against observations from submarines, aircraft and satellites. While it is encouraging that the mean thickness distributions from the models are in general agreement with observations, the spatial patterns of sea ice thickness are poorly represented in most models. The poor spatial representation of thick...

  1. The regional species richness and genetic diversity of Arctic vegetation reflect both past glaciations and current climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stewart, L.; Alsos, Inger G.; Bay, Christian;

    2016-01-01

    Aim The Arctic has experienced marked climatic differences between glacial and interglacial periods and is now subject to a rapidly warming climate. Knowledge of the effects of historical processes on current patterns of diversity may aid predictions of the responses of vegetation to future clima......, it will most probably also exhibit lags in response to current and future climate change. Our results also suggest that local species richness at the plot scale is more determined by local habitat factors......Aim The Arctic has experienced marked climatic differences between glacial and interglacial periods and is now subject to a rapidly warming climate. Knowledge of the effects of historical processes on current patterns of diversity may aid predictions of the responses of vegetation to future climate...... change. We aim to test whether plant species and genetic diversity patterns are correlated with time since deglaciation at regional and local scales. We also investigate whether species richness is correlated with genetic diversity in vascular plants. Location Circumarctic. Methods We investigated...

  2. Model estimates of climate controls on pan-Arctic wetland methane emissions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    X. Chen

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Climate factors including soil temperature and moisture, incident solar radiation, and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration are important environmental controls on methane (CH4 emissions from northern wetlands. We investigated the spatio-temporal distributions of the influence of these factors on northern high latitude wetland CH4 emissions using an enhanced version of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC land surface model. We simulated CH4 emissions from wetlands across the pan-Arctic domain over the period 1948–2006, yielding annual average emissions of 35.1 ± 6.7 Tg CH4 yr−1 for the period 1997–2006. We characterized historical sensitivities to air temperature, precipitation, incident long- and short-wave radiation, and atmospheric [CO2] as a function of average summer air temperature and precipitation. Emissions from relatively warm and dry wetlands in the southern (permafrost-free portion of the domain were positively correlated with precipitation and negatively correlated with air temperature, while emissions from wetter and colder wetlands further north (permafrost were positively correlated with air temperature. Over the entire period 1948–2006, our reconstructed CH4 emissions increased by 20%, over 90% of which can be attributed to climate change. An increasing trend in summer air temperature explained the majority of the climate-related variance. We estimated future emissions in response to 21st century warming as predicted by CMIP5 model projections to result in end of century CH4 emissions 42% higher than our reconstructed 1997–2006 emissions, accompanied by the northward migration of warmer- and drier-than optimal conditions for CH4 emissions, implying a reduced role for temperature in driving future increases in emissions.

  3. Imminent ocean acidification in the Arctic projected with the NCAR global coupled carbon cycle-climate model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Steinacher

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available Ocean acidification from the uptake of anthropogenic carbon is simulated for the industrial period and IPCC SRES emission scenarios A2 and B1 with a global coupled carbon cycle-climate model. Earlier studies identified seawater saturation state with respect to aragonite, a mineral phase of calcium carbonate, as a key variable governing impacts on corals and other shell-forming organisms. Globally in the A2 scenario, water saturated by more than 300%, considered suitable for coral growth, vanishes by 2070 AD (CO2≈630 ppm, and the ocean volume fraction occupied by saturated water decreases from 42% to 25% over this century. The largest simulated pH changes worldwide occur in Arctic surface waters, where hydrogen ion concentration increases by up to 185% (ΔpH=−0.45. Projected climate change amplifies the decrease in Arctic surface mean saturation and pH by more than 20%, mainly due to freshening and increased carbon uptake in response to sea ice retreat. Modeled saturation compares well with observation-based estimates along an Arctic transect and simulated changes have been corrected for remaining model-data differences in this region. Aragonite undersaturation in Arctic surface waters is projected to occur locally within a decade and to become more widespread as atmospheric CO2 continues to grow. The results imply that surface waters in the Arctic Ocean will become corrosive to aragonite, with potentially large implications for the marine ecosystem, if anthropogenic carbon emissions are not reduced and atmospheric CO2 not kept below 450 ppm.

  4. Report of the Canada-European Union Symposium : environmental assessment, climate change research and policy implications in the Arctic

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Climate change models indicate that the Arctic regions will see a change in climate over the next 100 years. This will have a significant impact on the environment and natural resources, as well as on the communities that depend on them. This symposium outlined some of the major impacts of climate change already occurring in northern environments, as well as those likely to occur in the near future. The policy implications of these impacts were also examined, as well as ways in which the science of climate change may be used to further develop policy. The first session focused on scientific methods of climate change research, including the use of measuring instruments to detect changes in the Arctic Ocean Basin. The second session presented details of northern ecosystems, including tree line shifts and species currently at risk. Issues concerning stewardship and responsibility were also examined. The third session discussed the necessity of developing a mechanism to strengthen the information flow between the scientific community and policy leaders. Different climate models vary in their projections, and a universally accepted standard for validation and calibration must be established. The fourth session discussed the development of a framework to address cumulative effects and take into account various stakeholders, environmental impacts and other concerns specific to the Northwest Territories. The fifth session suggested ways in which international co-operation can increase and facilitate policy making. Open discussions followed each session. It was concluded that Arctic researchers and policy makers need to rethink the ways in which research planning and information dissemination is approached. It was suggested that opportunities for global collaboration should be explored. tabs., figs

  5. Eurasian Arctic climate over the past millennium as recorded in the Akademii Nauk ice core (Severnaya Zemlya

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Opel

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Understanding recent Arctic climate change requires detailed information on past changes, in particular on a regional scale. The extension of the depth–age relation of the Akademii Nauk (AN ice core from Severnaya Zemlya (SZ to the last 1100 yr provides new perspectives on past climate fluctuations in the Barents and Kara seas region. Here, we present the easternmost high-resolution ice-core climate proxy records (δ18O and sodium from the Arctic. Multi-annual AN δ18O data as near-surface air-temperature proxies reveal major temperature changes over the last millennium, including the absolute minimum around 1800 and the unprecedented warming to a double-peak maximum in the early 20th century. The long-term cooling trend in δ18O is related to a decline in summer insolation but also to the growth of the AN ice cap as indicated by decreasing sodium concentrations. Neither a pronounced Medieval Climate Anomaly nor a Little Ice Age are detectable in the AN δ18O record. In contrast, there is evidence of several abrupt warming and cooling events, such as in the 15th and 16th centuries, partly accompanied by corresponding changes in sodium concentrations. These abrupt changes are assumed to be related to sea-ice cover variability in the Barents and Kara seas region, which might be caused by shifts in atmospheric circulation patterns. Our results indicate a significant impact of internal climate variability on Arctic climate change in the last millennium.

  6. Role of Greenland meltwater in the changing Arctic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dukhovskoy, Dmitry; Proshutinsky, Andrey; Timmermans, Mary-Louise; Myers, Paul; Platov, Gennady; Bamber, Jonathan; Curry, Beth; Somavilla, Raquel

    2016-04-01

    Observational data show that the Arctic ocean-ice-atmosphere system has been changing over the last two decades. Arctic change is manifest in the atypical behavior of the climate indices in the 21st century. Before the 2000s, these indices characterized the quasi-decadal variability of the Arctic climate related to different circulation regimes. Between 1948 and 1996, the Arctic atmospheric circulation alternated between anticyclonic circulation regimes and cyclonic circulation regimes with a period of 10-15 years. Since 1997, however, the Arctic has been dominated by an anticyclonic regime. Previous studies indicate that in the 20th century, freshwater and heat exchange between the Arctic Ocean and the sub-Arctic seas were self-regulated and their interactions were realized via quasi-decadal climate oscillations. What physical processes in the Arctic Ocean - sub-Arctic ocean-ice-atmosphere system are responsible for the observed changes in Arctic climate variability? The presented work is motivated by our hypothesis that in the 21st century, these quasi-decadal oscillations have been interrupted as a result of an additional freshwater source associated with Greenland Ice Sheet melt. Accelerating since the early 1990s, the Greenland Ice Sheet mass loss exerts a significant impact on thermohaline processes in the sub-Arctic seas. Surplus Greenland freshwater, the amount of which is about a third of the freshwater volume fluxed into the region during the 1970s Great Salinity Anomaly event, can spread and accumulate in the sub-Arctic seas influencing convective processes there. It is not clear, however, whether Greenland freshwater can propagate into the interior convective regions in the Labrador Sea and the Nordic Seas. In order to investigate the fate and pathways of Greenland freshwater in the sub-Arctic seas and to determine how and at what rate Greenland freshwater propagates into the convective regions, several numerical experiments using a passive tracer to

  7. The Arctic Cooperative Data and Information System: Data Management Support for the NSF Arctic Research Program (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, J.; Serreze, M. C.; Middleton, D.; Ramamurthy, M. K.; Yarmey, L.

    2013-12-01

    The NSF funds the Advanced Cooperative Arctic Data and Information System (ACADIS), url: (http://www.aoncadis.org/). It serves the growing and increasingly diverse data management needs of NSF's arctic research community. The ACADIS investigator team combines experienced data managers, curators and software engineers from the NSIDC, UCAR and NCAR. ACADIS fosters scientific synthesis and discovery by providing a secure long-term data archive to NSF investigators. The system provides discovery and access to arctic related data from this and other archives. This paper updates the technical components of ACADIS, the implementation of best practices, the value of ACADIS to the community and the major challenges facing this archive for the future in handling the diverse data coming from NSF Arctic investigators. ACADIS provides sustainable data management, data stewardship services and leadership for the NSF Arctic research community through open data sharing, adherence to best practices and standards, capitalizing on appropriate evolving technologies, community support and engagement. ACADIS leverages other pertinent projects, capitalizing on appropriate emerging technologies and participating in emerging cyberinfrastructure initiatives. The key elements of ACADIS user services to the NSF Arctic community include: data and metadata upload; support for datasets with special requirements; metadata and documentation generation; interoperability and initiatives with other archives; and science support to investigators and the community. Providing a self-service data publishing platform requiring minimal curation oversight while maintaining rich metadata for discovery, access and preservation is challenging. Implementing metadata standards are a first step towards consistent content. The ACADIS Gateway and ADE offer users choices for data discovery and access with the clear objective of increasing discovery and use of all Arctic data especially for analysis activities

  8. Dynamics of Arctic and Sub-Arctic Climate and Atmospheric Circulation: Diagnosis of Mechanisms and Model Biases Using data Assimilation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sumant Nigam

    2013-02-05

    These five publications are summarized: Key role of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation in 20th century drought and wet periods over the Great Plains; A Sub-Seasonal Teleconnection Analysis: PNA Development and Its Relationship to the NAO; AMO's Structure and Climate Footprint in Observations and IPCC AR5 Climate Simulations; The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation in 20th Century Climate Simulations: Uneven Progress from CMIP3 to CMIP5; and Tropical Atlantic Biases in CCSM4.

  9. Vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in the arctic (VACCA): Implementing recommendations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2011-07-01

    This report provides recommendations for how Norway's government could move forward with the results from the Arctic Council supported VACCA project, suggesting how concrete activities may be implemented and applied to policy and practice. Based on the results of interviews with Arctic peoples and people involved in Arctic work, combined with desk studies of relevant literature, four Arctic contexts are defined within the dividing lines coastal/non-coastal and urban/non-urban. This report provides up to five concrete recommendations within each context, recommendations for cross-contextual action, and specific projects for further research and action.(auth)

  10. A closer investigation of associations between Autumn Arctic sea ice and central and east Eurasian winter climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Shaoyin; Liu, Jiping

    2016-04-01

    Whether recent Arctic sea ice loss is responsible for recent severe winters over mid-latitude continents has emerged as a major debate among climate scientists owing to short records of observations and large internal variability in mid- and high-latitudes. In this study, we divide the evolution of autumn Arctic sea ice extent during 1979-2014 into three epochs, 1979-1986 (high), 1987-2006 (moderate) and 2007-2014 (low), using a regime shift identification method. We then compare the associations between autumn Arctic sea ice and winter climate anomalies over central and eastern Eurasia for the three epochs with focus not only on the mean state, but also the extreme events. The results show robust and detectable signals of sea ice loss in weather and climate over western Siberia and East Asia. For the mean state, anomalous low sea ice extent is associated with a strengthening of the Siberian high pressure, a weakening of westerly winds over north Asia, leading to cold anomalies in central Asia and northern China. For the extreme events, the latitude (speed) of the jet stream shifts southward (reduces), the wave extent amplifies, blocking high events increase over Ural Mountains, leading to increased frequency of cold air outbreaks extending from central Asia to northeast China. These associations bear a high degree of similarity to the observed atmospheric anomalies during the low sea ice epoch. By contrast, the patterns of atmospheric anomalies for the high sea ice epoch are different from those congruent with sea ice variability, which is related to the persistent negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation. We also found that the ENSO plays a minor role in the determination of the observed atmospheric anomalies for the three epochs. Support for these observational analysis is largely corroborated by independent atmospheric model simulations.

  11. Marine carbonate system evolution during the EPOCA Arctic pelagic ecosystem experiment in the context of simulated Arctic ocean acidification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. G. J. Bellerby

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available A major, potential stressor of marine systems is the changing water chemistry following increasing seawater carbon dioxide concentration (CO2, commonly termed ocean acidification. In order to understand how an Arctic pelagic ecosystem may respond to future CO2, a deliberate ocean acidification and nutrient perturbation study was undertaken in an Arctic fjord. The initial setting and evolution of seawater carbonate chemistry were investigated. Additions of carbon dioxide resulted in a wide range of ocean acidification scenarios. This study documents the changes to the CO2 system throughout the study following net biological consumption and gas exchange with the atmosphere. In light of the common practice of extrapolating results to cover regions away from experimental conditions, a modelling study was also performed to assess the representativeness, in the context of the simulated present and future carbonate system, of the experimental study region to both the near and wider Arctic region. The mesocosm experiment represented the range of simulated marine carbonate system for the coming century and beyond (pCO2 to 1420 μatm and thus extrapolations may be appropriate to ecosystems exhibiting similar levels of CO2 system drivers. However, as the regional ocean acidification was very heterogenous and did not follow changes in atmospheric CO2, care should be taken in extrapolating the mesocosm response to other regions based on atmospheric CO2 scenarios.

  12. Arctic sea ice bordering on the North Atlantic and intera- nnual climate variations

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    Variations of winter Arctic sea ice bordering on the North Atlantic are closely related to climate variations in the same region. When winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index is positive (negative) anomaly phase, Icelandic Low is obviously deepened and shifts northwards (southwards). Simultaneously, the Subtropical High over the North Atlantic is also intensified, and moves northwards (south-wards). Those anomalies strengthen (weaken) westerly be-tween Icelandic Low and the Subtropical High, and further result in positive (negative) sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the mid-latitude of the North Atlantic, and increase (decrease) the warm water transportation from the mid-latitude to the Barents Sea, which causes positive (nega-tive) mixed-layer water temperature anomalies in the south part of the Barents Sea. Moreover, the distribution of anom-aly air temperature clearly demonstrates warming (cooling) in northern Europe and the subarctic regions (including the Barents Sea) and cooling (warming) in Baffin Bay/ Davis Strait. Both of distributions of SST and air temperature anomalies directly result in sea ice decrease (increase) in the Barents/Kara Seas, and sea ice increase (decrease) in Baffin Bay/Davis Strait.

  13. Spring melt ponds drive Arctic September ice at past, present and future climates in coupled climate simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schroeder, David; Feltham, Danny; Rae, Jamie; Flocco, Daniela; Ridley, Jeff; Blockley, Edd

    2016-04-01

    Stand-alone sea ice simulations with a physical based melt pond model reveal a strong correlation between the simulated spring pond fraction and the observed as well as simulated September sea ice extent for the period 1979 to 2014. This is explained by a positive feedback mechanism: more ponds reduce the albedo; a lower albedo causes more melting; more melting increases pond fraction. This feedback process is a potential reason for the acceleration of Arctic sea ice decrease in the last decade and the failure of many climate models (without an implicit pond model) to simulate the observed decrease. We implemented the Los Alamos sea ice model CICE 5 including our physical based melt pond model into the latest version of the Hadley Centre coupled climate model, HadGEM3. The model surface shortwave radiation scheme has been adjusted to account for pond fraction and depth. We performed three 55-year HadGEM3 simulations with constant external forcing for the years 1985, 2010 and 2035. In all three simulations we find a strong correlation between the April/May pond fraction and the September sea ice extent with correlation coefficients R1985 = -0.86, R2010 = -0.83 and R2035 = -0.79. Based on the correlation we can perform forecasts with remarkable skill values of S1985 = 0.50, S2010 = 0.36 and S2035 = 0.40. We calculate the skill as S = 1 - σferr2/ σref2, where σref2 is the variance of the de-trended climatology and σferr2 the forecast error variance. Altogether our three simulations cover a large range of September sea ice extent from maximum values of 8.5 million km2 for the 1985 run down to 1.5 million km2 for the 2035 run. We demonstrate that spring melt ponds are an important driver for summer ice melt and the consequent minimum ice extent for current and future climate conditions.

  14. Oil and gas activity in the Arctic. Challenges in changing climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The presentation reviews the oil and gas resources in the Arctic, discusses applications of experiences from the petroleum and gas activities on the Norwegian Shelf to resource development in the Arctic and concludes that the data bases should be improved for oceanographic, meteorological and ice data. The emphasis is on technological design (tk)

  15. Enhanced 20th century heat transfer to the Arctic simulated in the context of climate variations over the last millennium

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. H. Jungclaus

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Oceanic heat transport variations, carried by the northward flowing Atlantic Water, strongly influence Arctic sea-ice distribution, ocean–atmosphere exchanges, and pan-Arctic temperatures. Paleoceanographic reconstructions from marine sediments near Fram Strait have documented a dramatic increase in Atlantic Water temperatures over the 20th century, unprecedented in the last millennium. Here we present results from Earth system model simulations over the last millennium that reproduce and explain reconstructed integrated quantities such as pan-Arctic temperature evolution during the pre-industrial millennium as well as the exceptional Atlantic Water warming in Fram Strait in the 20th century. The associated increase in ocean heat transfer to the Arctic can be traced back to changes in the ocean circulation in the sub-polar North Atlantic. An interplay between a weakening overturning circulation and a strengthening sub-polar gyre as a consequence of 20th century global warming is identified as driving mechanism for the pronounced warming along the Atlantic Water path toward the Arctic. Simulations covering the late Holocene provide a reference frame that allows us to conclude that the changes during the last century are unprecedented in the last 1150 years and that they cannot be explained by internal variability or natural forcing alone.

  16. Backyard of the Rich North: The Climate Change-related Vicious Circle of the Arctic Zone

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Arctic zone is full of controversies, unknowns, contrasts, and challenges. The following example is enlightening. Saudi Arabia is a country that has been considered to have almost unlimited possibilities because of its enormous oil earnings. The country has US$60 thousand million purchasing power parity oil income each year for its mere 22 million inhabitants. Astonishingly, the Arctic zone's income from oil, gas, and minerals is at least as large as that of Saudi Arabia, modestly estimated, but the Arctic has less than 4 million people. Most money, however, flows away from the tundra, yet social and environmental problems remain there. A part of the side effect of consuming these resources - largely fossil fuels - returns to the Arctic in the form of greenhouse warming and all its consequences. The Arctic zone now warms at approximately double the rate of the world average

  17. Graduate training in Earth science across borders and disciplines: ArcTrain -"Processes and impacts of climate change in the North Atlantic Ocean and the Canadian Arctic"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stein, Rüdiger; Kucera, Michal; Walter, Maren; de Vernal, Anne

    2015-04-01

    Due to a complex set of feedback processes collectively known as "polar amplification", the Arctic realm is expected to experience a greater-than-average response to global climate forcing. The cascades of feedback processes that connect the Arctic cryosphere, ocean and atmosphere remain incompletely constrained by observations and theory and are difficult to simulate in climate models. Our capacity to predict the future of the region and assess the impacts of Arctic change processes on global and regional environments hinges on the availability of interdisciplinary experts with strong international experience and understanding of the science/society interface. This is the basis of the International Research Training Group "Processes and impacts of climate change in the North Atlantic Ocean and the Canadian Arctic - ArcTrain", which was initiated in 2013. ArcTrain aims to educate PhD students in an interdisciplinary environment that combines paleoclimatology, physical oceanography, remote sensing and glaciology with comprehensive Earth system modelling, including sea-ice and ice-sheet components. The qualification program for the PhD students includes joint supervision, mandatory research residences at partner institutions, field courses on land and on sea (Floating University), annual meetings and training workshops and a challenging structured training in expert skills and transferrable skills. Its aim is to enhance the career prospects and employability of the graduates in a challenging international job market across academic and applied sectors. ArcTrain is a collaborative project at the University of Bremen and the Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research in Bremerhaven. The German part of the project is designed to continue for nine years and educate three cohorts of twelve PhD students each. The Canadian partners comprise a consortium of eight universities led by the GEOTOP cluster at the Université du Québec à Montréal and including

  18. Arctic char - friend or foe?: Climate driven seasonal variation in competitive impact of Arcticchar (Salvelinus alpinus L) on brown trout (Salmo truttaence L)

    OpenAIRE

    Ulvan, Eva Marita

    2010-01-01

    Here I test for climate driven seasonal effects on competition in lakes using brown trout (Salmo trutta L.) and Arctic char (Salvelinus alpinus L.) as model organisms. Winter and summer brown trout consumption rates were estimated by 1374 Cs tracer methodology using brown trout sampled in  allopatric (brown trout) and 10 sympatric (brown trout/Arctic char) lakes, located along an altitudinal gradient in central Scandinavia. Lake catchment area  vegetation properties ranged from southern borea...

  19. Beyond arctic and alpine: the influence of winter climate on temperate ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ladwig, Laura M; Ratajczak, Zak R; Ocheltree, Troy W; Hafich, Katya A; Churchill, Amber C; Frey, Sarah J K; Fuss, Colin B; Kazanski, Clare E; Muñoz, Juan D; Petrie, Matthew D; Reinmann, Andrew B; Smith, Jane G

    2016-02-01

    Winter climate is expected to change under future climate scenarios, yet the majority of winter ecology research is focused in cold-climate ecosystems. In many temperate systems, it is unclear how winter climate relates to biotic responses during the growing season. The objective of this study was to examine how winter weather relates to plant and animal communities in a variety of terrestrial ecosystems ranging from warm deserts to alpine tundra. Specifically, we examined the association between winter weather and plant phenology, plant species richness, consumer abundance, and consumer richness in 11 terrestrial ecosystems associated with the U.S. Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER) Network. To varying degrees, winter precipitation and temperature were correlated with all biotic response variables. Bud break was tightly aligned with end of winter temperatures. For half the sites, winter weather was a better predictor of plant species richness than growing season weather. Warmer winters were correlated with lower consumer abundances in both temperate and alpine systems. Our findings suggest winter weather may have a strong influence on biotic activity during the growing season and should be considered in future studies investigating the effects of climate change on both alpine and temperate systems. PMID:27145612

  20. Reservoir Systems in Changing Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lien, W.; Tung, C.; Tai, C.

    2007-12-01

    Climate change may cause more climate variability and further results in more frequent extreme hydrological events which may greatly influence reservoir¡¦s abilities to provide service, such as water supply and flood mitigation, and even danger reservoir¡¦s safety. Some local studies have identified that climate change may cause more flood in wet period and less flow in dry period in Taiwan. To mitigate climate change impacts, more reservoir space, i.e. less storage, may be required to store higher flood in wet periods, while more reservoir storage may be required to supply water for dry periods. The goals to strengthen adaptive capacity of water supply and flood mitigation are conflict under climate change. This study will focus on evaluating the impacts of climate change on reservoir systems. The evaluation procedure includes hydrological models, a reservoir water balance model, and a water supply system dynamics model. The hydrological models are used to simulate reservoir inflows under different climate conditions. Future climate scenarios are derived from several GCMs. Then, the reservoir water balance model is developed to calculate reservoir¡¦s storage and outflows according to the simulated inflows and operational rules. The ability of flood mitigation is also evaluated. At last, those outflows are further input to the system dynamics model to assess whether the goal of water supply can still be met. To mitigate climate change impacts, the implementing adaptation strategies will be suggested with the principles of risk management. Besides, uncertainties of this study will also be analyzed. The Feitsui reservoir system in northern Taiwan is chosen as a case study.

  1. The Arctic response to remote and local forcing of black carbon

    OpenAIRE

    Sand, M.; T. K. Berntsen; Kay, J. E.; J. F. Lamarque; Seland, Ø; Kirkevåg, A.

    2013-01-01

    Recent studies suggest that the Arctic temperature response to black carbon (BC) forcing depend strongly on the location of the forcing. We investigate how atmospheric BC in the mid-latitudes remotely influence the Arctic climate, and compare this with the response to atmospheric BC located in the Arctic itself. In this study, idealized climate simulations are carried out with a fully coupled Earth System Model, which includes a comprehensive treatment of aerosol microphysics. In order to det...

  2. The Arctic response to remote and local forcing of black carbon

    OpenAIRE

    Sand, M.; T. K. Berntsen; Kay, J. E.; J. F. Lamarque; Seland, Ø; Kirkevåg, A.

    2012-01-01

    Recent studies suggest that the Arctic temperature response to black carbon (BC) forcing depend on the location of the forcing. We investigate how BC in the mid-latitudes remotely influence the Arctic climate, and compare this with the response to BC located in the Arctic it self. In this study, idealized climate simulations are carried out with a fully coupled Earth System Model, which includes a comprehensive treatment of aerosol microphysics. In order to determine how BC transported t...

  3. International Arctic Systems for Observing the Atmosphere (IASOA)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Ingeborg Elbæk; Skov, Henrik; Massling, Andreas

    2016-01-01

    IASOA activities and partnerships were initiated as a part of the 2007-2009 International Polar Year (IPY) and are expected to continue for many decades as a legacy program. The IASOA focus is on coordinating intensive measurements of the Arctic atmosphere collected in the U.S., Canada, Russia......, Norway, Finland, and Greenland, to create synthesis science that leads to an understanding of why, and not just how the Arctic atmosphere is evolving. The IASOA premise is that there are limitations with Arctic modeling and satellite observations that can only be addressed with boots-on-the-ground, in...

  4. Model estimates of climate controls on pan-Arctic wetland methane emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, X.; Bohn, T. J.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

    2015-11-01

    Climate factors including soil temperature and moisture, incident solar radiation, and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration are important environmental controls on methane (CH4) emissions from northern wetlands. We investigated the spatiotemporal distributions of the influence of these factors on northern high-latitude wetland CH4 emissions using an enhanced version of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land surface model. We simulated CH4 emissions from wetlands across the pan-Arctic domain over the period 1948-2006, yielding annual average emissions of 36.1 ± 6.7 Tg CH4 yr-1 for the period 1997-2006. We characterized historical sensitivities of CH4 emissions to air temperature, precipitation, incident long- and shortwave radiation, and atmospheric [CO2] as a function of average summer air temperature and precipitation. Emissions from relatively warm and dry wetlands in the southern (permafrost-free) portion of the domain were positively correlated with precipitation and negatively correlated with air temperature, while emissions from wetter and colder wetlands further north (permafrost) were positively correlated with air temperature. Over the entire period 1948-2006, our reconstructed CH4 emissions increased by 20 %, the majority of which can be attributed to an increasing trend in summer air temperature. We estimated future emissions in response to 21st century warming as predicted by CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) model projections to result in end-of-century CH4 emissions 38-53 % higher than our reconstructed 1997-2006 emissions, accompanied by the northward migration of warmer and drier than optimal conditions for CH4 emissions, implying a reduced role for temperature in driving future increases in emissions.

  5. ARCTIC FOUNDATIONS, INC. FREEZE BARRIER SYSTEM - SITE TECHNOLOGY CAPSULE

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arctic Foundations, Inc. (AFI), of Anchorage, Alaska has developed a freeze barrier technology designed to prevent the migration of contaminants in groundwater by completely isolating contaminant source areas until appropriate remediation techniques can be applied. With this tec...

  6. Effect of recent climate change on Arctic Pb pollution: A comparative study of historical records in lake and peat sediments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Historical changes of anthropogenic Pb pollution were reconstructed based on Pb concentrations and isotope ratios in lake and peat sediment profiles from Ny-Ålesund of Arctic. The calculated excess Pb isotope ratios showed that Pb pollution largely came from west Europe and Russia. The peat profile clearly reflected the historical changes of atmospheric deposition of anthropogenic Pb into Ny-Ålesund, and the result showed that anthropogenic Pb peaked at 1960s–1970s, and thereafter a significant recovery was observed by a rapid increase of 206Pb/207Pb ratios and a remarkable decrease in anthropogenic Pb contents. In contrast to the peat record, the longer lake record showed relatively high anthropogenic Pb contents and a persistent decrease of 206Pb/207Pb ratios within the uppermost samples, suggesting that climate-sensitive processes such as catchment erosion and meltwater runoff might have influenced the recent change of Pb pollution record in the High Arctic lake sediments. - Highlights: ► Historical changes of anthropogenic Pb pollution in Ny-Ålesund were reconstructed. ► Anthropogenic Pb in Ny-Ålesund was largely originated from W. European and Russia. ► Anthropogenic Pb recorded in peat sediments peaked at 1960–1970s and then declined. ► High anthropogenic fluxes were found in recent change of Pb record from lake sediments. ► Climate-sensitive processes might have influenced recent Pb accumulation rate in lakes. - This manuscript reports the effects of climate-sensitive processes on historical records of Pb pollution in sediments of Arctic lakes.

  7. Communicating climate science to high school students in the Arctic: Adventure Learning @ Greenland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hougham, R. J.; Miller, B.; Cox, C. J.

    2012-12-01

    Adventure Learning @ Greenland (AL@GL) engaged high school students in atmospheric research in the Arctic and in local environments to enhance climate literacy. The overarching objective for this project was to support climate literacy in high school students, specifically the concept of energy exchange between the Earth, atmosphere, and space. The goal then is to produce a model of education and outreach for remote STEM research that can be used to meaningfully engage K-12 and public communities. Over the course of the program experience, students conducted scientific inquiry associated with their place that supported a more focused science content at a field location. Approximately 45 students participated in the hybrid learning environments as part of this project at multiple locations in Idaho, USA, and Greenland. In Greenland, the Summit Camp research station located on the Greenland Ice Sheet was the primary location. The AL@GL project provided a compelling opportunity to engage students in an inquiry-based curriculum alongside a cutting-edge geophysical experiment at Summit: the Integrated Characterization of Energy, Clouds, Atmospheric state, and Precipitation at Summit (ICECAPS) experiment. ICECAPS measures parameters that are closely tied to those identified in student misconceptions. Thus, ICECAPS science and the AL@ approach combined to create a learning environment that was practical, rich, and engaging. Students participating in this project were diverse, rural, and traditionally underrepresented. Groups included: students participating in a field school at Kangerlussuaq, Greenland and Summit Station as members of the JSEP; students at MOSS will were part of the Upward Bound Math Science (UBMS) and HOIST (Helping Orient Indian Students and Teachers) project. These project serve high school students who are first college generation and from low-income families. JSEP is an international group of students from the United States, Greenland, and Denmark

  8. Species interactions and response time to climate change: ice-cover and terrestrial run-off shaping Arctic char and brown trout competitive asymmetries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finstad, A. G.; Palm Helland, I.; Jonsson, B.; Forseth, T.; Foldvik, A.; Hessen, D. O.; Hendrichsen, D. K.; Berg, O. K.; Ulvan, E.; Ugedal, O.

    2011-12-01

    There has been a growing recognition that single species responses to climate change often mainly are driven by interaction with other organisms and single species studies therefore not are sufficient to recognize and project ecological climate change impacts. Here, we study how performance, relative abundance and the distribution of two common Arctic and sub-Arctic freshwater fishes (brown trout and Arctic char) are driven by competitive interactions. The interactions are modified both by direct climatic effects on temperature and ice-cover, and indirectly through climate forcing of terrestrial vegetation pattern and associated carbon and nutrient run-off. We first use laboratory studies to show that Arctic char, which is the world's most northernmost distributed freshwater fish, outperform trout under low light levels and also have comparable higher growth efficiency. Corresponding to this, a combination of time series and time-for-space analyses show that ice-cover duration and carbon and nutrient load mediated by catchment vegetation properties strongly affected the outcome of the competition and likely drive the species distribution pattern through competitive exclusion. In brief, while shorter ice-cover period and decreased carbon load favored brown trout, increased ice-cover period and increased carbon load favored Arctic char. Length of ice-covered period and export of allochthonous material from catchments are major, but contrasting, climatic drivers of competitive interaction between these two freshwater lake top-predators. While projected climate change lead to decreased ice-cover, corresponding increase in forest and shrub cover amplify carbon and nutrient run-off. Although a likely outcome of future Arctic and sub-arctic climate scenarios are retractions of the Arctic char distribution area caused by competitive exclusion, the main drivers will act on different time scales. While ice-cover will change instantaneously with increasing temperature

  9. Seismicity of the Arctic mid-ocean Ridge system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schlindwein, Vera; Demuth, Andrea; Korger, Edith; Läderach, Christine; Schmid, Florian

    2015-03-01

    The Arctic mid-ocean ridge system constitutes the most active source of earthquakes in the north polar region. However, the characteristics of its earthquake activity at teleseismic and local scales are not well studied because of the remote location of the ridge. We present here a comprehensive seismicity analysis that compares the teleseismic earthquake record of 35 years drawn from the catalogue of the International Seismological Centre with reconnaissance-style local earthquake records at six locations along the ridge that were instrumented either with ocean bottom seismometers or with seismometers on drifting ice floes. The teleseismic earthquake activity varies along the ridge and reflects ultraslow spreading processes with more and larger earthquakes produced in magma-rich regions than in magma-starved areas. Large magnitude earthquakes M > 5.5 are common along this ultraslow spreading ridge. Locally recorded earthquakes are of small magnitude (M formation of the pronounced topographic relief. Their size and event rate is not as variable along the ridge as that of teleseismic events. Locally recorded earthquakes in the upper mantle are generated at several locations. Their focal depths do not depend on spreading rate but reflect the thermal state of the lithosphere with very deep earthquakes indicating an exceptionally cold lithosphere.

  10. Climate Observing Systems: Data System Challenges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karl, T. R.

    2001-12-01

    Existing observing and data systems have provided considerable information about past climate variations and changes. The recent reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the National Research Council, and the USGCRP National Assessment of Climate Variability and Change are testaments to a vast array of knowledge. These reports also expose some serious deficiencies in our ability to discern past climate variations and change which lead to substantial uncertainties in key climate state, climate feedback, and climate forcing variables. How significant are these uncertainties? For climate trends that have our highest confidence, like the change in mean global surface temperature, the 95 percent confidence intervals amount to about two-thirds of the calculated change. With such large uncertainties it is exceedingly difficult to discern accelerated changes. For other variables, especially variables related to climate feedbacks and forcings (with exceptions for long-lived and well-mixed greenhouse gases like CO2 or CH4) or climate and weather extremes, we often have little or no information to discern trends or cannot objectively assess confidence intervals. Do we know how to reduce existing uncertainties? First and foremost, a climate observation oversight and monitoring capability is needed that tracks the gathering of the data, the processing system, and the performance of the observations, especially time-dependent biases. An organized capability does not now exist, but could be developed at a new and/or existing centers. This center(s) should then have the means and influence to fix problems and be able to establish requirements for new in-situ and satellite observing including related data systems. Such a capability should complement the following: (1) Climate observations from both space-based and in-situ platforms that are taken in ways that address climate needs and adhere to the ten principles outlined by the NRC (1999 Adequacy of Climate

  11. Greenland sea ice anomalies during 1901-1984 and their relation to an interdecadal arctic climate cycle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Two ice data sets from the Greenland and neighboring seas have been analyzed to determine interannual and decadal time scale sea ice extent anomalies during this century. Sea ice concentration data on a 1 degree x 1 degree grid for 1953-1984 revealed the presence of a large positive anomaly in the Greenland Sea during the 1960s which coincided with the Great Salinity Anomaly, a low-salinity water mass that traveled cyclonically around the northern North Atlantic during 1968-1982. The two anomalies propagated into the Labrador Sea with a typical travel time of 3-5 years. Spring and summer ice-limit data obtained from Danish Meteorological Institute charts for 1901-1956 indicated the presence of heavy ice conditions in the Greenland Sea during 1902-1920 and in the late 1940s, and generally light ice conditions during the 1920s and 1930s. Only limited evidence of propagation of Greenland Sea ice anomalies into the Labrador Sea was observed, however. On the other hand, several large ice anomalies in the Greenland Sea occurred 2-3 years after large runoffs from northern Canada into the western Arctic Ocean. Similarly, a large runoff into the Arctic preceded the large Greenland Sea ice anomaly of the 1960s. These facts, together with recent evidence of climatic jumps in the Northern Hemisphere tropospheric circulation, suggest the existence of an interdecadal, self-sustained climate cycle in the Arctic which is described in terms of a negative feed-back loop. In the Greenland Sea this cycle is characterized by a state of large sea ice extent overlying a layer of cool freshwater that does not convectively overturn, which alternates with a state of small sea ice extent and warm saline surface water that frequently overturns

  12. The role of seasonality and large-scale climate drivers in recent Pan-Arctic tundra vegetation variability and change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhatt, U. S.; Walker, D. A.; Bieniek, P. A.; Raynolds, M. K.; Comiso, J. C.; Pinzon, J.; Tucker, C. J.

    2011-12-01

    An increase of Pan-Arctic tundra vegetation greenness has been documented using the remotely sensed Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and a coherent variability between NDVI, springtime coastal sea ice and land surface temperatures has been shown. The goal of this paper is to understand the forcing factors of this change and variability better through an analysis of the seasonality of these remotely sensed variables as well as long-term climate data sets. This study uses remotely sensed submonthly 25-km sea ice concentration, surface temperature, and NDVI from 1982 to 2010. The NDVI3g data has been corrected for biases in the spring and fall. Standard climate data (station, reanalysis, and model data) and ground observations are also examined. For overall trends, we find that summer time open water area has increased most in the Beaufort, and Siberian Seas. The seasonality of SWI trends display distinct heterogeneity across the Arctic, with maximum warming in August for most regions (Figure 1). The monthly time integrated NDVI trends display the largest positive values for most of the Arctic in July, with the exception of the E. Bering and Kara regions, which show declines during most months (Figure 2). The largest magnitude increases in Max-NDVI tend to be in subzones that are inland, particularly in the Beaufort and Chukchi regions. NDVI has increased more during spring in Eurasia and more during peak vegetation activity (July) over North America. The analysis suggests that local atmospheric circulation as well as other local factors likely plays an important role in vegetation productivity.

  13. The response of Arctic vegetation to the summer climate: relation between shrub cover, NDVI, surface albedo and temperature

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Recently observed Arctic greening trends from normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data suggest that shrub growth is increasing in response to increasing summer temperature. An increase in shrub cover is expected to decrease summer albedo and thus positively feed back to climate warming. However, it is unknown how albedo and NDVI are affected by shrub cover and inter-annual variations in the summer climate. Here, we examine the relationship between deciduous shrub fractional cover, NDVI and albedo using field data collected at a tundra site in NE Siberia. Field data showed that NDVI increased and albedo decreased with increasing deciduous shrub cover. We then selected four Arctic tundra study areas and compiled annual growing season maximum NDVI and minimum albedo maps from MODIS satellite data (2000-10) and related these satellite products to tundra vegetation types (shrub, graminoid, barren and wetland tundra) and regional summer temperature. We observed that maximum NDVI was greatest in shrub tundra and that inter-annual variation was negatively related to summer minimum albedo but showed no consistent relationship with summer temperature. Shrub tundra showed higher albedo than wetland and barren tundra in all four study areas. These results suggest that a northwards shift of shrub tundra might not lead to a decrease in summer minimum albedo during the snow-free season when replacing wetland tundra. A fully integrative study is however needed to link results from satellite data with in situ observations across the Arctic to test the effect of increasing shrub cover on summer albedo in different tundra vegetation types.

  14. On the effects of constraining atmospheric circulation in a coupled atmosphere-ocean Arctic regional climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berg, Peter; Döscher, Ralf; Koenigk, Torben

    2015-08-01

    Impacts of spectral nudging on simulations of Arctic climate in coupled simulations have been investigated in a set of simulations with a regional climate model (RCM). The dominantly circumpolar circulation in the Arctic lead to weak constraints on the lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) for the RCM, which causes large internal variability with strong deviations from the driving model. When coupled to an ocean and sea ice model, this results in sea ice concentrations that deviate from the observed spatial distribution. Here, a method of spectral nudging is applied to the atmospheric model RCA4 in order to assess the potentials for improving results for the sea ice concentrations when coupled to the RCO ocean-sea ice model. The spectral nudging applied to reanalysis driven simulations significantly improves the generated sea ice regarding its temporal evolution, extent and inter-annual trends, compared to simulations with standard LBC nesting. The method is furthermore evaluated with driving data from two CMIP5 GCM simulations for current and future conditions. The GCM biases are similar to the RCA4 biases with ERA-Interim, however, the spectral nudging still improves the surface winds enough to show improvements in the simulated sea ice. For both GCM downscalings, the spectrally nudged version retains a larger sea ice extent in September further into the future. Depending on the sea ice formulation in the GCM, the temporal evolution of the regional sea ice model can deviate strongly.

  15. A Climate System Model, Numerical Simulation and Climate Predictability

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZENG Qingcun; WANG Huijun; LIN Zhaohui; ZHOU Guangqing; YU Yongqiang

    2007-01-01

    @@ The implementation of the project has lasted for more than 20 years. As a result, the following key innovative achievements have been obtained, ranging from the basic theory of climate dynamics, numerical model development and its related computational theory to the dynamical climate prediction using the climate system models:

  16. Simulating the 20th Century Arctic Climate Using A Global Coupled Atmosphere-Ice-Ocean Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, J.; Watanabe, E.; Jin, M.; Hasumi, H.

    2006-12-01

    The simulations of the Arctic ice-ocean circulation using the high resolution global coupled atmosphere-ice- ocean model with 1/6x1/4 degrees and 48 vertical layers on the `Earth Simulator' supercomputer was evaluated to determine the model performance, physics soundness, and its sensitivity to different process parameterizations. The model was parameterized by GM (Gent and McWilliams 1990) parameterization to the north of 45N. The statistical time series of the total oceanic and ice kinetic energy and ice areas suggest that there is an equilibrium without any T/S restoring or flux adjustment, and no model drifting is found. The model climatology (mean over all the model years) and variability were examined and compared with the available observations, such as ice area, temperature and salinity at certain key depths and transects. Several important physical features in the Northern Hemisphere, such as the thermohaline in the Arctic Ocean, Atlantic Water, meridional thermohaline overturning, transports from Bering Strait, Fram Strait etc., were examined to determine physical soundness of the model. An important achievement is that the Atlantic Layer in the Arctic can be reasonably reproduced with no restoring temperature and salinity to observations. An important criterion of reproducing the Atlantic Layer variability is measured by the core (max) temperature of the layer of 500-1500m. The model produces reasonably the 20th century Atlantic Water core temperature that compares well with observation by Polyakov et al. (2004). The model catches the 1930s-40s warming and the 1990s warming, similar to the observation. These results indicate that this coupled global model captures most important dynamic and thermodynamic processes in the Arctic Ocean. Furthermore, the winter Dipole Anomaly (DA) and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) in the Arctic atmosphere and their contribution to sea ice export are investigated using the 20th century simulation.

  17. Arctic Watch

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orcutt, John; Baggeroer, Arthur; Mikhalevsky, Peter; Munk, Walter; Sagen, Hanne; Vernon, Frank; Worcester, Peter

    2015-04-01

    The dramatic reduction of sea ice in the Arctic Ocean will increase human activities in the coming years. This will be driven by increased demand for energy and the marine resources of an Arctic Ocean more accessible to ships. Oil and gas exploration, fisheries, mineral extraction, marine transportation, research and development, tourism and search and rescue will increase the pressure on the vulnerable Arctic environment. Synoptic in-situ year-round observational technologies are needed to monitor and forecast changes in the Arctic atmosphere-ice-ocean system at daily, seasonal, annual and decadal scales to inform and enable sustainable development and enforcement of international Arctic agreements and treaties, while protecting this critical environment. This paper will discuss multipurpose acoustic networks, including subsea cable components, in the Arctic. These networks provide communication, power, underwater and under-ice navigation, passive monitoring of ambient sound (ice, seismic, biologic and anthropogenic), and acoustic remote sensing (tomography and thermometry), supporting and complementing data collection from platforms, moorings and autonomous vehicles. This paper supports the development and implementation of regional to basin-wide acoustic networks as an integral component of a multidisciplinary, in situ Arctic Ocean Observatory.

  18. Possible effects of climate warming on selected populations of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in the Canadian Arctic

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stirling, I. [Canadian Wildlife Service, Edmonton, AB (Canada); Parkinson, C.L. [NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD (United States). Cryospheric Sciences Branch

    2006-09-15

    Climate warming in the Arctic has caused declines in the total cover and thickness of sea ice. Intuit hunters in the areas of some polar bear populations in the eastern Canadian Arctic have noted that more bears have approached human settlements during open-water periods in recent years. The observations have been interpreted as evidence of increasing polar bear population size, and have resulted in increases in hunting quotas. However, research on 2 polar bear populations in Western Hudson Bay and Baffin Bay suggest that their numbers are declining. This paper evaluated patterns of sea-ice breakup and freeze-up in 5 regions to test the hypothesis that sightings of more polar bears are due in part to changes in sea ice. The regions were based on the accepted boundaries of the polar bear management zones used by government agencies in Canada and Greenland. Areas included Foxe Basin; Baffin Bay; Davis Strait; Hudson Strait; and Eastern Hudson Bay. Analysis of passive-microwave satellite imagery beginning in the 1970s has indicated that sea ice is breaking up at progressively earlier dates, so that bears must fast for longer periods during the open-water periods. This paper suggested that polar bears are being observed close to human settlements as they are searching for alternative food sources in years when their stored body fat is depleted before freeze-up, when they can return to the sea ice to hunt for seals. It was suggested that if the climate continues to warm as projected by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, polar bears in all 5 populations discussed in the paper will become increasingly food-stressed, and that their numbers are likely to decline. It was suggested that problem interactions between bears and humans will also increase as the bears seek alternative food sources. It was concluded that a precautionary approach should be taken to the harvesting of polar bears. The potential effects of climate warming should be incorporated into

  19. Conceptualizing Climate Change in the Context of a Climate System: Implications for Climate and Environmental Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shepardson, Daniel P.; Niyogi, Dev; Roychoudhury, Anita; Hirsch, Andrew

    2012-01-01

    Today there is much interest in teaching secondary students about climate change. Much of this effort has focused directly on students' understanding of climate change. We hypothesize, however, that in order for students to understand climate change they must first understand climate as a system and how changes to this system due to both natural…

  20. UAV Deployed Sensor System for Arctic Ocean Remote Sensing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palo, S. E.; Lawrence, D.; Weibel, D.; LoDolce, G.; Krist, S.; Crocker, I.; Maslanik, J. A.

    2012-12-01

    The Marginal Ice Zone Observations and Processes Experiment (MIZOPEX), is an Arctic field project scheduled for summer 2013. The goals of the project are to understand how warming of the marginal ice zone affects sea ice melt and if this warming has been over or underestimated by satellite measurements. To achieve these goals calibrated physical measurements, both remote and in-situ, of the marginal ice zone over scales of square kilometers with a resolution of square meters is required. This will be accomplished with a suite of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) equipped with both remote sensing and in-situ instruments, air deployed microbuoys, and ship deployed buoys. In this talk we will present details about the air-deployed micro-buoy (ADMB) and self-deployed surface-sonde (SDSS) components of the MIZOPEX project, developed at the University of Colorado. These systems were designed to explore the potential of low-cost, on-demand access to high-latitude areas of important scientific interest. Both the ADMB and SDSS share a common measurement suite with the capability to measure water temperature at three distinct depths and provide position information via GPS. The ADMBs are dropped from the InSitu ScanEagle UAV and expected to operate and log ocean temperatures for 14 days. The SDSS are micro UAVs that are designed to fly one-way to a region of interest and land at specified coordinates, thereafter becoming a surface sensor similar to the ADMB. A ScanEagle will periodically return to the deployment zone to gather ADMB/SDSS data via low power radio links. Design decisions based upon operational constraints and the current status of the ADMB and SDSS will be presented.

  1. The response of high-impact blocking weather systems to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kennedy, Daniel; Parker, Tess; Woollings, Tim; Harvey, Benjamin; Shaffrey, Len

    2016-07-01

    Midlatitude weather and climate are dominated by the jet streams and associated eastward moving storm systems. Occasionally, however, these are blocked by persistent anticyclonic regimes known as blocking. Climate models generally predict a small decline in blocking frequency under anthropogenic climate change. However, confidence in these predictions is undermined by, among other things, a lack of understanding of the physical mechanisms underlying the change. Here we analyze blocking (mostly in the Euro-Atlantic sector) in a set of sensitivity experiments to determine the effect of different parts of the surface global warming pattern. We also analyze projected changes in the impacts of blocking such as temperature extremes. The results show that enhanced warming both in the tropics and over the Arctic act to strengthen the projected decline in blocking. The tropical changes are more important for the uncertainty in projected blocking changes, though the Arctic also affects the temperature anomalies during blocking.

  2. Radiative measurements at Thule, Greenland: factors affecting the cloud-free shortwave and longwave radiative budget in the Arctic

    OpenAIRE

    Di Biagio, C.; ENEA/UTMEA-TER, S. Maria di Galeria, Italy; Bertagnolio, P. P.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma2, Roma, Italia; di Sarra, A. G.; ENEA/UTMEA-TER, S. Maria di Galeria, Italy; Eriksen, P.; Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen, Denmark; Ascanius, S. E.; Danish Meteorological Institute, Qanaaq, Greenland; Muscari, G.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma2, Roma, Italia

    2011-01-01

    The Arctic region plays a central role in the global climate system. Modifications in the Arctic radiative budget may strongly influence large scale atmospheric and oceanic circulation. The evaluation of the surface energy balance sensitivity to variations in several parameters, such as surface temperature, water vapour content, surface albedo, and atmospheric aerosols, is one of the main issues in assessing how the Arctic will respond to future climate changes. The NDACC station at Thule...

  3. Tracking and responding to a changing Arctic sea-ice cover: How ice users can help the scientific community design better observing systems (Louis Agassiz Medal Lecture)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eicken, Hajo

    2010-05-01

    The Arctic sea-ice cover is undergoing a major transformation, with substantial reductions in summer ice extent reflecting changes in ice thickness, age, and circulation. These changes are impacting Arctic ecosystems and a range of human activities. Anticipating and responding to such impacts, exacerbated by increasing economic activity in parts of the Arctic, requires a foundation of environmental observations and model predictions. Recent increases in industrial activities such as shipping and resource development in parts of the Arctic have further highlighted the need for an integrated observing system. In the case of a changing sea-ice cover, how would one best design and optimize such a system? One of the challenges is to meet the information needs of the scientific community in furthering fundamental understanding of the Arctic system, as well as those of key stakeholders and society, helping them to prepare for and respond to Arctic change. This presentation focuses on how the concept of sea-ice system services, i.e., the uses and benefits (or harm) derived from sea ice, may help guide the implementation of an effective observing system. Principal service categories are (1) sea ice as climate regulator, marine hazard, and coastal buffer; (2) transportation and use of ice as a platform; (3) cultural services obtained from the "icescape"; and (4) support of food webs and biological diversity by sea ice. An analysis of the different ice services provided to different user groups can help prioritize different types of observations and determine optimal measurement strategies. Moreover, the focus on different uses of the ice cover may also help synthesize fundamental and applied research to help Arctic communities adapt in a changing environment. Alaska has experienced some of the most substantial changes in sea-ice conditions throughout the Arctic over the past three decades and is used to illustrate the concepts discussed above. Specifically, we have examined

  4. Predicting Climate Feedbacks and Impacts in the Terrestrial Arctic: w14_terraarctic progress report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Coon, Ethan [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Atchley, Adam Lee [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Berndt, Markus [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Moulton, John David [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Harp, Dylan Robert [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Garimella, Rao Veerabhadra [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Svyatsky, Daniil [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Wilson, Cathy Jean [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2016-07-14

    Regarding the Arctic Terrestrial Simulator (ATS), previous work solved integrated hydrology (coupled surface/subsurface flow) on multiple polygons, and surface flow over larger domains to guide landscape characterization. Solved thermal hydrology with freeze/thaw dynamics in three dimensions. Ongoing efforts apply state of the art thermal hydrology model to complex topography, and include mesh deformation processes.

  5. Arctic sea ice in the PlioMIP ensemble: is model performance for modern climates a reliable guide to performance for the past or the future?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. W. Howell

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Eight general circulation models have simulated the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP, 3.264 to 3.025 Ma as part of the Pliocene Modelling Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP. Here, we analyse and compare their simulation of Arctic sea ice for both the pre-industrial and the mid-Pliocene. Mid-Pliocene sea ice thickness and extent is reduced and displays greater variability within the ensemble compared to the pre-industrial. This variability is highest in the summer months, when the model spread in the mid-Pliocene is more than three times larger than the rest of the year. Correlations between mid-Pliocene Arctic temperatures and sea ice extents are almost twice as strong as the equivalent correlations for the pre-industrial simulations. It is suggested that the weaker relationship between pre-industrial Arctic sea ice and temperatures is likely due to the tuning of climate models to achieve an optimal pre-industrial sea ice cover, which may also affect future predictions of Arctic sea ice. Model tuning for the pre-industrial does not appear to be best suited for simulating the different climate state of the mid-Pliocene. This highlights the importance of evaluating climate models through simulation of past climates, and the urgent need for more proxy evidence of sea ice during the Pliocene.

  6. Quantifying the Mass Balance of Ice Caps on Severnaya Zemlya, Russian High Arctic. I: Climate and Mass Balance of the Vavilov Ice Cap

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bassford, R.P.; Siegert, M.J.; Dowdeswell, J.A.; Oerlemans, J.; Glazovsky, A.F.; Macheret, Y.Y.

    2006-01-01

    Due to their remote location within the Russian High Arctic, little is known about the mass balance of ice caps on Severnaya Zemlya now and in the past. Such information is critical, however, to building a global picture of the cryospheric response to climate change. This paper provides a numerical

  7. Freshwater and its role in the Arctic Marine System: Sources, disposition, storage, export, and physical and biogeochemical consequences in the Arctic and global oceans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carmack, E. C.; Yamamoto-Kawai, M.; Haine, T. W. N.; Bacon, S.; Bluhm, B. A.; Lique, C.; Melling, H.; Polyakov, I. V.; Straneo, F.; Timmermans, M.-L.; Williams, W. J.

    2016-03-01

    The Arctic Ocean is a fundamental node in the global hydrological cycle and the ocean's thermohaline circulation. We here assess the system's key functions and processes: (1) the delivery of fresh and low-salinity waters to the Arctic Ocean by river inflow, net precipitation, distillation during the freeze/thaw cycle, and Pacific Ocean inflows; (2) the disposition (e.g., sources, pathways, and storage) of freshwater components within the Arctic Ocean; and (3) the release and export of freshwater components into the bordering convective domains of the North Atlantic. We then examine physical, chemical, or biological processes which are influenced or constrained by the local quantities and geochemical qualities of freshwater; these include stratification and vertical mixing, ocean heat flux, nutrient supply, primary production, ocean acidification, and biogeochemical cycling. Internal to the Arctic the joint effects of sea ice decline and hydrological cycle intensification have strengthened coupling between the ocean and the atmosphere (e.g., wind and ice drift stresses, solar radiation, and heat and moisture exchange), the bordering drainage basins (e.g., river discharge, sediment transport, and erosion), and terrestrial ecosystems (e.g., Arctic greening, dissolved and particulate carbon loading, and altered phenology of biotic components). External to the Arctic freshwater export acts as both a constraint to and a necessary ingredient for deep convection in the bordering subarctic gyres and thus affects the global thermohaline circulation. Geochemical fingerprints attained within the Arctic Ocean are likewise exported into the neighboring subarctic systems and beyond. Finally, we discuss observed and modeled functions and changes in this system on seasonal, annual, and decadal time scales and discuss mechanisms that link the marine system to atmospheric, terrestrial, and cryospheric systems.

  8. Towards a process-based understanding of Holocene polar climate change. Using glacier-fed lake sediments from Arctic Svalbard and Antarctic South Georgia

    OpenAIRE

    Bilt, Willem van der

    2016-01-01

    Earth`s polar regions are undergoing dramatic changes due to ongoing climate change as demonstrated by increasing temperatures, collapsing ice shelves, Arctic sea ice loss and rapid glacier retreat. Driving an accelerating rise in global sea level, this amplified regional response may have devastating global socio-economic consequences in the foreseeable future. Yet the causes and range of polar climate variability remain poorly understood as observational records are short and fragmentary, w...

  9. Quantifying the Mass Balance of Ice Caps on Severnaya Zemlya, Russian High Arctic. I: Climate and Mass Balance of the Vavilov Ice Cap

    OpenAIRE

    Bassford, R. P.; Siegert, M.J.; Dowdeswell, J.A.; Oerlemans, J.; A. F. Glazovsky; Macheret, Y.Y.

    2006-01-01

    Due to their remote location within the Russian High Arctic, little is known about the mass balance of ice caps on Severnaya Zemlya now and in the past. Such information is critical, however, to building a global picture of the cryospheric response to climate change. This paper provides a numerical analysis of the climate and mass balance of the Vavilov Ice Cap on October Revolution Island. Mass balance model results are compared with available glaciological and climatological data. A referen...

  10. Assessment of extreme flood events in changing climate for a long-term planning of socio-economic infrastructure in the Russian Arctic

    OpenAIRE

    Shevnina, E.; Kurzeneva, E.; V. Kovalenko; Vihma, T.

    2016-01-01

    Climate warming has been and is expected to continue faster in the Arctic than at lower latitudes, which generates major challenges for adaptation. Among others, long-term planning of development of socio-economic infrastructure requires climate-based forecasts of the frequency and magnitude of extreme flood events. To estimate the cost of facilities and operational risks, a probabilistic form of long-term forecasting is preferable. A stochastic model allowing to simulate th...

  11. A comparison of climate changes between Arctic and China in the last 600 years%近600年来北极与中国气候变化的对比

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    许娟

    2004-01-01

    A compilation of paleoclimate records from lake sediments, trees, ice cores, and historical documents provide a view of China and Arctic environmental changes in the last 600 years. Many of these changes have also been identified in sedimentary and geochemical signatures in deep-sea sediment cores from the North Atlantic Ocean, Arctic and Greenland and ice cores from the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, confirming the linkage of environmental changes of different time scales between the Arctic and China. It is shown that the changes of precipitation, temperature and sea ice cover in Arctic were correlated with climate changes in China. This paper also developed a comparative research on the climate changes between Arctic and China both during the Little Ice Age (LIA) and the instrumental observation period. Cycles and trend of temperature variations during LIA and temperature and precipitation during the instrumental observation period are performed. We found some similarities and differences of environmental changes between Arctic and China.

  12. Near-Surface Meteorology During the Arctic Summer Cloud Ocean Study (ASCOS): Evaluation of Reanalyses and Global Climate Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Boer, G.; Shupe, M.D.; Caldwell, P.M.; Bauer, Susanne E.; Persson, O.; Boyle, J.S.; Kelley, M.; Klein, S.A.; Tjernstrom, M.

    2014-01-01

    Atmospheric measurements from the Arctic Summer Cloud Ocean Study (ASCOS) are used to evaluate the performance of three atmospheric reanalyses (European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF)- Interim reanalysis, National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) reanalysis, and NCEP-DOE (Department of Energy) reanalysis) and two global climate models (CAM5 (Community Atmosphere Model 5) and NASA GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Studies) ModelE2) in simulation of the high Arctic environment. Quantities analyzed include near surface meteorological variables such as temperature, pressure, humidity and winds, surface-based estimates of cloud and precipitation properties, the surface energy budget, and lower atmospheric temperature structure. In general, the models perform well in simulating large-scale dynamical quantities such as pressure and winds. Near-surface temperature and lower atmospheric stability, along with surface energy budget terms, are not as well represented due largely to errors in simulation of cloud occurrence, phase and altitude. Additionally, a development version of CAM5, which features improved handling of cloud macro physics, has demonstrated to improve simulation of cloud properties and liquid water amount. The ASCOS period additionally provides an excellent example of the benefits gained by evaluating individual budget terms, rather than simply evaluating the net end product, with large compensating errors between individual surface energy budget terms that result in the best net energy budget.

  13. Near-surface meteorology during the Arctic Summer Cloud Ocean Study (ASCOS: evaluation of reanalyses and global climate models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. de Boer

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Atmospheric measurements from the Arctic Summer Cloud Ocean Study (ASCOS are used to evaluate the performance of three reanalyses (ERA-Interim, NCEP/NCAR and NCEP/DOE and two global climate models (CAM5 and NASA GISS ModelE2 in simulation of the high Arctic environment. Quantities analyzed include near surface meteorological variables such as temperature, pressure, humidity and winds, surface-based estimates of cloud and precipitation properties, the surface energy budget, and lower atmospheric temperature structure. In general, the models perform well in simulating large scale dynamical quantities such as pressure and winds. Near-surface temperature and lower atmospheric stability, along with surface energy budget terms are not as well represented due largely to errors in simulation of cloud occurrence, phase and altitude. Additionally, a development version of CAM5, which features improved handling of cloud macro physics, is demonstrated to improve simulation of cloud properties and liquid water amount. The ASCOS period additionally provides an excellent example of the need to evaluate individual budget terms, rather than simply evaluating the net end product, with large compensating errors between individual surface energy budget terms resulting in the best net energy budget.

  14. Opportunities and limitations to detect climate-related regime shifts in inland Arctic ecosystems through eco-hydrological monitoring

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This study has identified and mapped the occurrences of three different types of climate-driven and hydrologically mediated regime shifts in inland Arctic ecosystems: (i) from tundra to shrubland or forest, (ii) from terrestrial ecosystems to thermokarst lakes and wetlands, and (iii) from thermokarst lakes and wetlands to terrestrial ecosystems. The area coverage of these shifts is compared to that of hydrological and hydrochemical monitoring relevant to their possible detection. Hotspot areas are identified within the Yukon, Mackenzie, Barents/Norwegian Sea and Ob river basins, where systematic water monitoring overlaps with ecological monitoring and observed ecosystem regime shift occurrences, providing opportunities for linked eco-hydrological investigations that can improve our regime shift understanding, and detection and prediction capabilities. Overall, most of the total areal extent of shifts from tundra to shrubland and from terrestrial to aquatic regimes is in hydrologically and hydrochemically unmonitored areas. For shifts from aquatic to terrestrial regimes, related water and waterborne nitrogen and phosphorus fluxes are relatively well monitored, while waterborne carbon fluxes are unmonitored. There is a further large spatial mismatch between the coverage of hydrological and that of ecological monitoring, implying a need for more coordinated monitoring efforts to detect the waterborne mediation and propagation of changes and impacts associated with Arctic ecological regime shifts.

  15. Improvement in Simulation of Eurasian Winter Climate Variability with a Realistic Arctic Sea Ice Condition in an Atmospheric GCM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, Young-Kwon; Ham, Yoo-Geun; Jeong, Jee-Hoon; Kug, Jong-Seong

    2012-01-01

    The present study investigates how much a realistic Arctic sea ice condition can contribute to improve simulation of the winter climate variation over the Eurasia region. Model experiments are set up using different sea ice boundary conditions over the past 24 years (i.e., 1988-2011). One is an atmospheric model inter-comparison (AMIP) type of run forced with observed sea-surface temperature (SST), sea ice, and greenhouse gases (referred to as Exp RSI), and the other is the same as Exp RSI except for the sea ice forcing, which is a repeating climatological annual cycle (referred to as Exp CSI). Results show that Exp RSI produces the observed dominant pattern of Eurasian winter temperatures and their interannual variation better than Exp CSI (correlation difference up to approx. 0.3). Exp RSI captures the observed strong relationship between the sea ice concentration near the Barents and Kara seas and the temperature anomaly across Eurasia, including northeastern Asia, which is not well captured in Exp CSI. Lagged atmospheric responses to sea ice retreat are examined using observations to understand atmospheric processes for the Eurasian cooling response including the Arctic temperature increase, sea-level pressure increase, upper-level jet weakening and cold air outbreak toward the mid-latitude. The reproducibility of these lagged responses by Exp RSI is also evaluated.

  16. Improvement in simulation of Eurasian winter climate variability with a realistic Arctic sea ice condition in an atmospheric GCM

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The present study investigates how much a realistic Arctic sea ice condition can contribute to improve simulation of the winter climate variation over the Eurasia region. Model experiments are set up using different sea ice boundary conditions over the past 24 years (i.e., 1988–2011). One is an atmospheric model inter-comparison (AMIP) type of run forced with observed sea-surface temperature (SST), sea ice, and greenhouse gases (referred to as Exp RSI), and the other is the same as Exp RSI except for the sea ice forcing, which is a repeating climatological annual cycle (referred to as Exp CSI). Results show that Exp RSI produces the observed dominant pattern of Eurasian winter temperatures and their interannual variation better than Exp CSI (correlation difference up to ∼0.3). Exp RSI captures the observed strong relationship between the sea ice concentration near the Barents and Kara seas and the temperature anomaly across Eurasia, including northeastern Asia, which is not well captured in Exp CSI. Lagged atmospheric responses to sea ice retreat are examined using observations to understand atmospheric processes for the Eurasian cooling response including the Arctic temperature increase, sea-level pressure increase, upper-level jet weakening and cold air outbreak toward the mid-latitude. The reproducibility of these lagged responses by Exp RSI is also evaluated. (letter)

  17. Sediment-Laden sea ice in the Arctic Ocean: Implications for climate, environment and sedimentation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sediments in sea ice were first described by F. Nansen during his famous Fram expedition (1893-1896). Many researchers observed and recorded sediment-laden or dirty sea ice in the Central Arctic, but the origin and incorporation mechanisms are poorly understood and were never the object of detailed studies. Sea ice-rafted sediments are important factors for the albedo and for the ecology and productivity of marine organisms, because of the absorption of solar radiation and lowered light transmission. Beginning in 1987 in the Eastern Arctic Basin and continuing in 1988, 1989 and 1990 in Fram Strait, Barents Sea and Greenland Sea the authors conducted a multi-disciplinary sea ice project on the role and importance of sea ice-rafted sediments for sedimentation in the Arctic Ocean. During the field work very high sediment accumulations were observed and sampled (up to 560 g sediment/kg ice). Most of the material was concentrated in small patches of 1-10 m in diameter, but in some areas, especially in the Eastern Arctic, they covered up to 80% of the ice surface and formed layers of pure mud, 2-3 cm thick. First estimations of the observed concentrations, the annual ice flow through Fram Strait, and the average sedimentation rate in this area show that the necessary sediment flux can be obtained only by sea ice. Thus, sea ice-rafting seems to be the most important input mechanism of fine grained terrigenous (biogenic and terrigenic) sediment into the ice-covered deep sea regions

  18. The Arctic response to remote and local forcing of black carbon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Sand

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Recent studies suggest that the Arctic temperature response to black carbon (BC forcing depend on the location of the forcing. We investigate how BC in the mid-latitudes remotely influence the Arctic climate, and compare this with the response to BC located in the Arctic it self. In this study, idealized climate simulations are carried out with a fully coupled Earth System Model, which includes a comprehensive treatment of aerosol microphysics. In order to determine how BC transported to the Arctic and BC sources not reaching the Arctic impact the Arctic climate, forcing from BC aerosols is artificially increased by a factor of 10 in different latitude bands in the mid-latitudes (28° N–60° N and in the Arctic (60° N–90° N, respectively. Estimates of the impact on the Arctic energy budget are represented by analyzing radiation fluxes at the top of the atmosphere, at the surface and at the lateral boundaries. Our calculations show that increased BC forcing in the Arctic atmosphere reduces the surface air temperature in the Arctic with a corresponding increase in the sea-ice fraction, despite the increased planetary absorption of sunlight. The analysis indicates that this effect may be due to a combination of a weakening of the northward heat transport caused by a reduction in the meridional temperature gradient and a reduction in the turbulent mixing of heat downward to the surface. The latter factor is explained by the fact that most of the BC is located in the free troposphere and causes a warming at higher altitudes which increases the static stability in the Arctic. On the other hand we find that BC forcing at the mid-latitudes warms the Arctic surface significantly and decreases the sea-ice fraction. Our model calculations indicate that atmospheric BC forcing outside the Arctic is more important for the Arctic climate change than the forcing in the Arctic itself. Although the albedo effect of BC on snow does show a more regional

  19. Characters of the organic δ13C and its climatic information in sediment cores of the lakes nearby the arctic yellow river station of China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arctic is favored by researchers due to its sensitivity and feedback to Global Climate Change, and the organic δ13C record of lake sediment is a key indicator for the environ- mental climate change. The sedimentary rates and δ13C of two sediment cores (No.1 and No.2), collected from two lakes near the Arctic Yellow River Station of China during July to Aug of 2007, were determined in order to investigate the climate change of the Arctic during the past centuries. The sedimentary rates, determined with 210Pb method, of sample No.1 and sample No.2 were 1.05 mm/a and 0.91 mm/a, respectively, and the vertical distribution of organic δ13C of two sediment cores have similar trends during the same period. The results show that the temperature at the Arctic Yellow River Station of China during the last three centuries was unsteady, and was alternating with a 'lower-higher-lower' process. (authors)

  20. Proceedings of the 2007 ARCSACC conference on the assessment and remediation of contaminated sites in Arctic and cold climates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Biggar, K.; Cotta, G.; Nahir, M.; Mullick, A.; Buchko, J.; Ho, A.; Guigard, S. [Alberta Univ., Edmonton, AB (Canada). Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, ARCSACC Organizing Committee] (eds.)

    2007-07-01

    The ARCSACC conferences provide a forum for the discussion of remediation technologies in Arctic, Antarctic and other cold climates in the world. Presentations at the conference investigated issues related to risk assessment, Aboriginal involvement in remediation practices, and recent regulatory issues concerning remediation practices. Various new remediation projects were described. Engineering and geologic considerations related to the remediation of hydrocarbons were also discussed. The conference was divided into the following 8 sessions: (1) bioremediation; (2) remediation technologies and techniques; (3) site assessment and contaminant transport; (4) regulatory guidelines; (5) site assessment and contaminant transport 2; (6) remediation technologies and techniques 2; (7) mine remediation and site construction; and (8) mine remediation and site construction 2. The conference featured 33 presentations, of which 19 have been catalogued separately for inclusion in this database. refs, tabs, figs.

  1. Climate system model, numerical simulation and climate predictability

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    @@ Thanks to its work of past more than 20 years,a research team led by Prof.ZENG Qingcun and Prof.WANG Huijun from the CAS Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP) has scored innovative achievements in their studies of basic theory of climate dynamics,numerical model development,its related computational theory,and the dynamical climate prediction using the climate system models.Their work received a second prize of the National Award for Natural Sciences in 2005.

  2. Security in the Arctic region. Coming in from the Cold War: Arctic security in the emerging global climate: A view from Canada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The article briefly discusses the strategic importance of the Arctic during the cold war years, before moving on to a consideration of the Canadian approach to the region and an outline of various Canadian governmental and private initiatives. The question of whether confidence and security building measures established in other areas are suitable for transfer to the Arctic is answered and a tentative list of some measures that might most appropriately and effectively serve to make the Arctic more secure is put forward for later and fuller discussions

  3. Biases of the Arctic climate in a regional ocean-sea ice-atmosphere coupled model:an annual validation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIU Xiying

    2014-01-01

    The Coupling of three model components, WRF/PCE (polar climate extension version of weather research and forecasting model ( WRF)), ROMS (regional ocean modeling system), and CICE (community ice code), has been implemented, and the regional atmosphere-ocean-sea ice coupled model named WRF/PCE-ROMS-CICE has been validated against ERA-interim reanalysis data sets for 1989. To better understand the reasons that generate model biases, the WRF/PCE-ROMS-CICE results were compared with those of its components, the WRF/PCE and the ROMS-CICE. There are cold biases in surface air temperature (SAT) over the Arctic Ocean, which contribute to the sea ice concentration (SIC) and sea surface temperature (SST) biases in the results of the WRF/PCE-ROMS-CICE. The cold SAT biases also appear in results of the atmo-spheric component with a mild temperature in winter and similar temperature in summer. Compared to results from the WRF/PCE, due to influences of different distributions of the SIC and the SST and inclusion of interactions of air-sea-sea ice in the WRF/PCE-ROMS-CICE, the simulated SAT has new features. These influences also lead to apparent differences at higher levels of the atmosphere, which can be thought as responses to biases in the SST and sea ice extent. There are similar atmospheric responses in feature of distribution to sea ice biases at 700 and 500 hPa, and the strength of responses weakens when the pressure decreases in January. The atmospheric responses in July reach up to 200 hPa. There are surplus sea ice ex-tents in the Greenland Sea, the Barents Sea, the Davis Strait and the Chukchi Sea in winter and in the Beau-fort Sea, the Chukchi Sea, the East Siberian Sea and the Laptev Sea in summer in the ROMS-CICE. These differences in the SIC distribution can all be explained by those in the SST distributions. These features in the simulated SST and SIC from ROMS-CICE also appear in the WRF/PCE-ROMS-CICE. It is shown that the performance of the WRF/PCE-ROMS-CICE is

  4. Radiocarbon age-offsets in an arctic lake reveal the long-term response of permafrost carbon to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaglioti, Benjamin V.; Mann, Daniel H.; Jones, Benjamin M.; Pohlman, John W.; Kunz, Michael L.; Wooller, Matthew J.

    2014-01-01

    Continued warming of the Arctic may cause permafrost to thaw and speed the decomposition of large stores of soil organic carbon (OC), thereby accentuating global warming. However, it is unclear if recent warming has raised the current rates of permafrost OC release to anomalous levels or to what extent soil carbon release is sensitive to climate forcing. Here we use a time series of radiocarbon age-offsets (14C) between the bulk lake sediment and plant macrofossils deposited in an arctic lake as an archive for soil and permafrost OC release over the last 14,500 years. The lake traps and archives OC imported from the watershed and allows us to test whether prior warming events stimulated old carbon release and heightened age-offsets. Today, the age-offset (2 ka; thousand of calibrated years before A.D. 1950) and the depositional rate of ancient OC from the watershed into the lake are relatively low and similar to those during the Younger Dryas cold interval (occurring 12.9–11.7 ka). In contrast, age-offsets were higher (3.0–5.0 ka) when summer air temperatures were warmer than present during the Holocene Thermal Maximum (11.7–9.0 ka) and Bølling-Allerød periods (14.5–12.9 ka). During these warm times, permafrost thaw contributed to ancient OC depositional rates that were ~10 times greater than today. Although permafrost OC was vulnerable to climate warming in the past, we suggest surface soil organic horizons and peat are presently limiting summer thaw and carbon release. As a result, the temperature threshold to trigger widespread permafrost OC release is higher than during previous warming events.

  5. Potential NEE Budget and Prediction of Future Emissions under Climate Change in an Arctic Wet Sedge Tundra, Barrow, Alaska .

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalhori, A. A. M.; Oechel, W. C.; Burba, G. G.; Gioli, B.; Zona, D.; Murphy, P.; Goodrich, J. P.

    2015-12-01

    Arctic ecosystems are critically affected by climate change and also play an important role in the global carbon budget. Presented here is a 14-year study of growing season CO2 fluxes in an Alaskan wet sedge tundra ecosystem -which is about 2 km south of the Arctic Ocean and is adjacent to the NOAA Climate Monitoring & Diagnostic Laboratory (CMDL)- and the key environmental controls on these fluxes. We have measured net ecosystem exchange of CO2 (NEE) using the eddy covariance technique from 1998 to 2014 in order to quantify the long-term seasonal and inter-annual variability in the CO2 budget over this period. The WPL correction and the surface heating correction were applied to all CO2 flux data from the open-path instrument (Burba et al., 2008). Despite several gaps in measurement years, we found that growing season net CO2 uptake has significantly increased since the 2000s and that NEE is sensitive to dry conditions in tundra. Our data suggest this increase in CO2 uptake (larger than -6 μmol m-2 s-1) occurred during the initial thawing period and during the June-August growing season. However, there is a decreasing trend in total summer uptake beginning in 2011, continuing until the end of 2014. The mean diurnal pattern for the summer period over the course of 14 years (Figure below), indicates inter-annual variability associated with the key environmental controls on these CO2 fluxes. Monthly trends in Photosynthetically Active Radiation (PAR), net radiation, relative humidity as well as air temperature and soil temperature have consistently simultaneous effects on the variation in NEE. More significant effect of PAR than temperature on summer NEE had been observed for the first period of this study, however our ANOVA, multiple regression and t-test results showed a stronger effect of temperature than PAR in the recent years assuming that Arctic warming will be greater than average global warming. Also the diurnal pattern shows that the maximum daily carbon

  6. Simulations of 20th and 21st century Arctic cloud amount in the global climate models assessed in the IPCC AR4

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vavrus, Steve; Waliser, Duane; Schweiger, Axel; Francis, Jennifer

    2009-12-01

    Simulations of late 20th and 21st century Arctic cloud amount from 20 global climate models (GCMs) in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) dataset are synthesized and assessed. Under recent climatic conditions, GCMs realistically simulate the spatial distribution of Arctic clouds, the magnitude of cloudiness during the warmest seasons (summer-autumn), and the prevalence of low clouds as the predominant type. The greatest intermodel spread and most pronounced model error of excessive cloudiness coincides with the coldest seasons (winter-spring) and locations (perennial ice pack, Greenland, and the Canadian Archipelago). Under greenhouse forcing (SRES A1B emissions scenario) the Arctic is expected to become cloudier, especially during autumn and over sea ice, in tandem with cloud decreases in middle latitudes. Projected cloud changes for the late 21st century depend strongly on the simulated modern (late 20th century) annual cycle of Arctic cloud amount: GCMs that correctly simulate more clouds during summer than winter at present also tend to simulate more clouds in the future. The simulated Arctic cloud changes display a tripole structure aloft, with largest increases concentrated at low levels (below 700 hPa) and high levels (above 400 hPa) but little change in the middle troposphere. The changes in cloud radiative forcing suggest that the cloud changes are a positive feedback annually but negative during summer. Of potential explanations for the simulated Arctic cloud response, local evaporation is the leading candidate based on its high correlation with the cloud changes. The polar cloud changes are also significantly correlated with model resolution: GCMs with higher spatial resolution tend to produce larger future cloud increases.

  7. Simulations of 20th and 21st century Arctic cloud amount in the global climate models assessed in the IPCC AR4

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vavrus, Steve [University of Wisconsin-Madison, Center for Climatic Research, Madison, WI (United States); Waliser, Duane [Jet Propulsion Laboratory, MS 183-501, Water and Carbon Cycles Group, Pasadena, CA (United States); Schweiger, Axel [University of Washington, Polar Science Center, Seattle, WA (United States); Francis, Jennifer [Rutgers University, J. J. Howard Marine Laboratory, Highlands, NJ (United States)

    2009-12-15

    Simulations of late 20th and 21st century Arctic cloud amount from 20 global climate models (GCMs) in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) dataset are synthesized and assessed. Under recent climatic conditions, GCMs realistically simulate the spatial distribution of Arctic clouds, the magnitude of cloudiness during the warmest seasons (summer-autumn), and the prevalence of low clouds as the predominant type. The greatest intermodel spread and most pronounced model error of excessive cloudiness coincides with the coldest seasons (winter-spring) and locations (perennial ice pack, Greenland, and the Canadian Archipelago). Under greenhouse forcing (SRES A1B emissions scenario) the Arctic is expected to become cloudier, especially during autumn and over sea ice, in tandem with cloud decreases in middle latitudes. Projected cloud changes for the late 21st century depend strongly on the simulated modern (late 20th century) annual cycle of Arctic cloud amount: GCMs that correctly simulate more clouds during summer than winter at present also tend to simulate more clouds in the future. The simulated Arctic cloud changes display a tripole structure aloft, with largest increases concentrated at low levels (below 700 hPa) and high levels (above 400 hPa) but little change in the middle troposphere. The changes in cloud radiative forcing suggest that the cloud changes are a positive feedback annually but negative during summer. Of potential explanations for the simulated Arctic cloud response, local evaporation is the leading candidate based on its high correlation with the cloud changes. The polar cloud changes are also significantly correlated with model resolution: GCMs with higher spatial resolution tend to produce larger future cloud increases. (orig.)

  8. Modulation of the Arctic Oscillation and the East Asian Winter Climate Relationships by the 11-year Solar Cycle

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    CHEN Wen; ZHOU Qun

    2012-01-01

    The modulation of the relationship between the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the East Asian winter climate by the 11-year solar cycle was investigated.During winters with high solar activity (HS),robust warming appeared in northern Asia in a positive AO phase. This result corresponded to an enhanced anticyclonic flow at 850 hPa over northeastern Asia and a weakened East Asian trough (EAT) at 500 hPa.However,during winters with low solar activity (LS),both the surface warming and the intensities of the anticyclonic flow and the EAT were much less in the presence of a positive AO phase.The possible atmospheric processes for this 11-year solar-cycle modulation may be attributed to the indirect influence that solar activity induces in the structural changes of AO.During HS winters,the sea level pressure oscillation associated with the AO became stronger,with the significant influence of AO extending to East Asia.In the meantime,the AO-related zonal-mean zonal winds tended to extend more into the stratosphere during HS winters,which implies a stronger coupling to the stratosphere.These trends may have led to an enhanced AO phase difference; thus the associated East Asian climate anomalies became larger and more significant.The situation tended to reverse during LS winters.Further analyses revealed that the relationship between the winter AO and surface-climate anomalies in the following spring is also modulated by the 11-year solar cycle,with significant signals appearing only during HS phases.Solar-cycle variation should be taken into consideration when the AO is used to predict winter and spring climate anomalies over East Asia.

  9. Reconciliation of essential process parameters for an enhanced predictability of Arctic stratospheric ozone loss and its climate interactions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. von Hobe

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Significant reductions in stratospheric ozone occur inside the polar vortices each spring when chlorine radicals produced by heterogeneous reactions on cold particle surfaces in winter destroy ozone mainly in two catalytic cycles, the ClO dimer cycle and the ClO/BrO cycle. Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs, which are responsible for most of the chlorine currently present in the stratosphere, have been banned by the Montreal Protocol and its amendments, and the ozone layer is predicted to recover to 1980 levels within the next few decades. During the same period, however, climate change is expected to alter the temperature, circulation patterns and chemical composition in the stratosphere, and possible geo-engineering ventures to mitigate climate change may lead to additional changes. To realistically predict the response of the ozone layer to such influences requires the correct representation of all relevant processes. The European project RECONCILE has comprehensively addressed remaining questions in the context of polar ozone depletion, with the objective to quantify the rates of some of the most relevant, yet still uncertain physical and chemical processes. To this end RECONCILE used a broad approach of laboratory experiments, two field missions in the Arctic winter 2009/10 employing the high altitude research aircraft M55-Geophysica and an extensive match ozone sonde campaign, as well as microphysical and chemical transport modelling and data assimilation. Some of the main outcomes of RECONCILE are as follows: (1 vortex meteorology: the 2009/10 Arctic winter was unusually cold at stratospheric levels during the six-week period from mid-December 2009 until the end of January 2010, with reduced transport and mixing across the polar vortex edge; polar vortex stability and how it is influenced by dynamic processes in the troposphere has led to unprecedented, synoptic-scale stratospheric regions with temperatures below the frost point; in these regions

  10. Reconciliation of essential process parameters for an enhanced predictability of Arctic stratospheric ozone loss and its climate interactions

    Science.gov (United States)

    von Hobe, M.; Bekki, S.; Borrmann, S.; Cairo, F.; D'Amato, F.; Di Donfrancesco, G.; Dörnbrack, A.; Ebersoldt, A.; Ebert, M.; Emde, C.; Engel, I.; Ern, M.; Frey, W.; Griessbach, S.; Grooß, J.-U.; Gulde, T.; Günther, G.; Hösen, E.; Hoffmann, L.; Homonnai, V.; Hoyle, C. R.; Isaksen, I. S. A.; Jackson, D. R.; Jánosi, I. M.; Kandler, K.; Kalicinsky, C.; Keil, A.; Khaykin, S. M.; Khosrawi, F.; Kivi, R.; Kuttippurath, J.; Laube, J. C.; Lefèvre, F.; Lehmann, R.; Ludmann, S.; Luo, B. P.; Marchand, M.; Meyer, J.; Mitev, V.; Molleker, S.; Müller, R.; Oelhaf, H.; Olschewski, F.; Orsolini, Y.; Peter, T.; Pfeilsticker, K.; Piesch, C.; Pitts, M. C.; Poole, L. R.; Pope, F. D.; Ravegnani, F.; Rex, M.; Riese, M.; Röckmann, T.; Rognerud, B.; Roiger, A.; Rolf, C.; Santee, M. L.; Scheibe, M.; Schiller, C.; Schlager, H.; Siciliani de Cumis, M.; Sitnikov, N.; Søvde, O. A.; Spang, R.; Spelten, N.; Stordal, F.; Sumińska-Ebersoldt, O.; Viciani, S.; Volk, C. M.; vom Scheidt, M.; Ulanovski, A.; von der Gathen, P.; Walker, K.; Wegner, T.; Weigel, R.; Weinbuch, S.; Wetzel, G.; Wienhold, F. G.; Wintel, J.; Wohltmann, I.; Woiwode, W.; Young, I. A. K.; Yushkov, V.; Zobrist, B.; Stroh, F.

    2012-11-01

    Significant reductions in stratospheric ozone occur inside the polar vortices each spring when chlorine radicals produced by heterogeneous reactions on cold particle surfaces in winter destroy ozone mainly in two catalytic cycles, the ClO dimer cycle and the ClO/BrO cycle. Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), which are responsible for most of the chlorine currently present in the stratosphere, have been banned by the Montreal Protocol and its amendments, and the ozone layer is predicted to recover to 1980 levels within the next few decades. During the same period, however, climate change is expected to alter the temperature, circulation patterns and chemical composition in the stratosphere, and possible geo-engineering ventures to mitigate climate change may lead to additional changes. To realistically predict the response of the ozone layer to such influences requires the correct representation of all relevant processes. The European project RECONCILE has comprehensively addressed remaining questions in the context of polar ozone depletion, with the objective to quantify the rates of some of the most relevant, yet still uncertain physical and chemical processes. To this end RECONCILE used a broad approach of laboratory experiments, two field missions in the Arctic winter 2009/10 employing the high altitude research aircraft M55-Geophysica and an extensive match ozone sonde campaign, as well as microphysical and chemical transport modelling and data assimilation. Some of the main outcomes of RECONCILE are as follows: (1) vortex meteorology: the 2009/10 Arctic winter was unusually cold at stratospheric levels during the six-week period from mid-December 2009 until the end of January 2010, with reduced transport and mixing across the polar vortex edge; polar vortex stability and how it is influenced by dynamic processes in the troposphere has led to unprecedented, synoptic-scale stratospheric regions with temperatures below the frost point; in these regions stratospheric ice

  11. Arctic species resilience

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mortensen, Lars O.; Forchhammer, Mads C.; Jeppesen, Erik

    , an extensive monitoring program has been conducted in the North Eastern Greenland National Park, the Zackenberg Basic. The objective of the program is to provide long time series of data on the natural innate oscillations and plasticity of a High Arctic ecosystem. With offset in the data provided through...... and precipitation. Concurrently, phenological change has been recorded in a wide range of plants and animals, with climate change seemingly being the primary driver of these changes. A major concern is whether species and biological systems embrace the plasticity in their phenological responses needed for tracking...

  12. Project CELIA: Climate and environment of the last interglacial (Isotope stage 5) in Arctic and subarctic North America

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stage 5e of the marine oxygen isotope record is the last time when world ice volume was lower, sea level was higher, and world climate warmer than during any part of the Holocene. To develop more accurate proxy data for natural climate change during the last interglacial, a multidisciplinary group of scientists working as regional teams has developed Project CELIA to generate and synthesize knowledge for this period from high latitude terrestrial and nearshore marine environments. The authors have cited 13 terrestrial sequences distributed across the Arctic and Subarctic for detailed study based upon well-exposed stratigraphy, abundance of organic remains, and geochronological potential. In addition, information from select marine cores bearing terrestrial pollen and ice cores from Devon and Agassiz Ice Caps will also be incorporated. These data will highlight regional changes in vegetation patterns, tree line position, permafrost distribution, and sea ice conditions from which ocean/atmospheric changes can be inferred. This information will be of value for testing hypotheses generated by GCMs and other simulations of interglacial conditions, refining such models and providing insight to future environments resulting from global warming. CELIA will be carried out over the next 5 years and will be directed by an international board of experts under the auspices of the University of Alberta's Canadian Circumpolar Institute

  13. Late Holocene Vegetation and Climate Change From the Central and Western Canadian Arctic Inferred From Fossil Pollen Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peros, M.; Gajewski, K.

    2007-12-01

    Two sediment cores from the central and western Canadian Arctic were used to document landscape-scale vegetation and climate changes spanning the last ~2500 years. Both cores were dated by Pb-210 and C-14 techniques. Fossil pollen was enumerated at continuous 1 cm intervals (each centimeter representing a period of ~70 years), permitting centennial-scale changes to be placed into a long-term context. The pollen percentages are dominated by Cyperaceae and show relatively uniform values throughout the cores. Quantitative climate reconstructions, based on the percentage values, are similarly stable. However, the influx of locally- and regionally-derived pollen grains increases over the last ~150 years, suggesting that higher primary production and summer temperatures occurred over this time. The pollen results from these cores are consistent with other high-resolution (~25 year) lake sediment proxy data (BSi and LOI) from the region. Despite this, a comparison of these data with several Holocene-length pollen records from the same region indicates that the changes that characterized the last 2000 years were relatively minor compared to those of the early Holocene.

  14. Coreless Winter Characteristics Observed with Global Positioning System Receivers over Antarctic and Arctic Regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wayan Suparta

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Problem statement: The most recent warming trends occurred during the winter in Polar Regions had been attracted many researchers to study its impacts, which might affect the sensitivity of climate prediction in both regions, as well as on a global basis. Approach: The aims of this study were to observe the characteristics of coreless winter events using the GPS meteorology such as the Zenith Tropospheric Delay (ZTD, Precipitable Water Vapor (PWV, the surface meteorology and the solar radiation measurements. The periods of observations were within two years which from January 2008 to December 2009 for Antarctic and from July 2008 to June 2010 for the Arctic. Results: The occurrence of coreless winter had clearly detected in June and January for Antarctic and Arctic, respectively. During the winter period, PWV and ZTD, temperature and relative humidity variations in both regions demonstrate a significant unusual warming peak than with the surface pressure. During this event, the increasing of 1°C of temperature showed that the PWV in Arctic was observed twice larger compared to the Antarctic. Conclusion: The increased PWV during winter suggest that the coreless winters characteristic is signified when advection between the warm or cold air masses over the region tend to increase the formation of cyclonic activity that causes increasing in surface temperature.

  15. Impacts of decline harvest of country food on nutrient intake among Inuit in Arctic Canada: impact of climate change and possible adaptation plan

    OpenAIRE

    Rosol, Renata; Powell-Hellyer, Stephanie; Chan, Hing Man

    2016-01-01

    Background. The pervasive food insecurity and the diet transition away from local, nutrient-rich country foods present a public health challenge among Inuit living in the Canadian Arctic. While environmental factors such as climate change decreased the accessibility and availability of many country food species, new species were introduced into regions where they were previously unavailable. An adaptation such as turning to alternate country food species can be a viable solution to substitute...

  16. Inversion of borehole temperature data for recent climatic changes: Examples from the Alaskan arctic and Antarctica

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A temperature disturbance at the earth's surface causes a downward-propagating thermal wave which can be sampled at later times in a geophysical borehole. This effect allows the surface temperature history at a given site to be reconstructed from precise temperature measurements at depth within the earth. Continuous permafrost regions are well suited for this type of paleoclimate reconstruction since they lack the disturbing effects of groundwater flow. Application of Backus-Gilbert theory to this inverse problem indicates the highest temporal resolution that can be obtained for surface disturbances occurring at time ∼to before present is ±0.40*to. If temperature measurements are limited to depths less than zb, temporal resolution is severely degraded for event times to > zb2/(18k) where k is the thermal diffusivity. Optimal resolution is retained back to ∼40 Y.B.P. when measurements to depths of 150 m (300 m) are utilized in the inversion. The resolution of events at time ∼to is also degraded if the vertical distance between measurements (dz) is > (kto/2)0.5. This is unlikely to cause a problem in practice, except when temperature data are acquired from a limited number of fixed thermistors. The authors are applying formal inversion techniques to the Alaskan Arctic dataset reported earlier by Lachenbruch and Marshall. On the basis of their data and a forward analysis, they concluded much of the permafrost surface in this region has warmed 2-4C during the last century. Application of inverse methods to this dataset provides improved estimates of the magnitude and timing of the recent arctic warming. Inversion of a recent temperature profile from the 300-m DVDP hole 1 1 in Taylor Valley, Antarctica, shows clear evidence for a 1C warming during the last ∼15 years

  17. Permafrost response to increasing Arctic shrub abundance depends on the relative influence of shrubs on local soil cooling versus large-scale climate warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Deciduous shrub abundance is increasing across the Arctic in response to climatic warming. In a recent field manipulation experiment in which shrubs were removed from a plot and compared to a control plot with shrubs, Blok et al (2010 Glob. Change Biol. 16 1296–305) found that shrubs protect the ground through shading, resulting in a ∼ 9% shallower active layer thickness (ALT) under shrubs compared to grassy-tundra, which led them to argue that continued Arctic shrub expansion could mitigate future permafrost thaw. We utilize the Community Land Model (CLM4) coupled to the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM4) to evaluate this hypothesis. CLM4 simulates shallower ALT (∼− 11 cm) under shrubs, consistent with the field manipulation study. However, in an idealized pan-Arctic + 20% shrub area experiment, atmospheric heating, driven mainly by surface albedo changes related to protrusion of shrub stems above the spring snowpack, leads to soil warming and deeper ALT (∼+ 10 cm). Therefore, if climate feedbacks are considered, shrub expansion may actually increase rather than decrease permafrost vulnerability. When we account for blowing-snow redistribution from grassy-tundra to shrubs, shifts in snowpack distribution in low versus high shrub area simulations counter the climate warming impact, resulting in a grid cell mean ALT that is unchanged. These results reinforce the need to consider vegetation dynamics and blowing-snow processes in the permafrost thaw model projections.

  18. Beyond Thin Ice: Co-Communicating the Many Arctics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Druckenmiller, M. L.; Francis, J. A.; Huntington, H.

    2015-12-01

    Science communication, typically defined as informing non-expert communities of societally relevant science, is persuaded by the magnitude and pace of scientific discoveries, as well as the urgency of societal issues wherein science may inform decisions. Perhaps nowhere is the connection between these facets stronger than in the marine and coastal Arctic where environmental change is driving advancements in our understanding of natural and socio-ecological systems while paving the way for a new assortment of arctic stakeholders, who generally lack adequate operational knowledge. As such, the Arctic provides opportunity to advance the role of science communication into a collaborative process of engagement and co-communication. To date, the communication of arctic change falls within four primary genres, each with particular audiences in mind. The New Arctic communicates an arctic of new stakeholders scampering to take advantage of unprecedented access. The Global Arctic conveys the Arctic's importance to the rest of the world, primarily as a regulator of lower-latitude climate and weather. The Intra-connected Arctic emphasizes the increasing awareness of the interplay between system components, such as between sea ice loss and marine food webs. The Transforming Arctic communicates the region's trajectory relative to the historical Arctic, acknowledging the impacts on indigenous peoples. The broad societal consensus on climate change in the Arctic as compared to other regions in the world underscores the opportunity for co-communication. Seizing this opportunity requires the science community's engagement with stakeholders and indigenous peoples to construct environmental change narratives that are meaningful to climate responses relative to non-ecological priorities (e.g., infrastructure, food availability, employment, or language). Co-communication fosters opportunities for new methods of and audiences for communication, the co-production of new interdisciplinary

  19. The Ancient Martian Climate System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haberle, Robert M.

    2014-01-01

    Today Mars is a cold, dry, desert planet. The atmosphere is thin and liquid water is not stable. But there is evidence that very early in its history it was warmer and wetter. Since Mariner 9 first detected fluvial features on its ancient terrains researchers have been trying to understand what climatic conditions could have permitted liquid water to flow on the surface. Though the evidence is compelling, the problem is not yet solved. The main issue is coping with the faint young sun. During the period when warmer conditions prevailed 3.5-3.8 Gy the sun's luminosity was approximately 25% less than it is today. How can we explain the presence of liquid water on the surface of Mars under such conditions? A similar problem exists for Earth, which would have frozen over under a faint sun even though the evidence suggests otherwise. Attempts to solve the "Faint Young Sun Paradox" rely on greenhouse warming from an atmosphere with a different mass and composition than we see today. This is true for both Mars and Earth. However, it is not a straightforward solution. Any greenhouse theory must (a) produce the warming and rainfall needed, (b) have a plausible source for the gases required, (c) be sustainable, and (d) explain how the atmosphere evolved to its present state. These are challenging requirements and judging from the literature they have yet to be met. In this talk I will review the large and growing body of work on the early Mars climate system. I will take a holistic approach that involves many disciplines since our goal is to present an integrated view that touches on each of the requirements listed in the preceding paragraph. I will begin with the observational evidence, which comes from the geology, mineralogy, and isotopic data. Each of the data sets presents a consistent picture of a warmer and wetter past with a thicker atmosphere. How much warmer and wetter and how much thicker is a matter of debate, but conditions then were certainly different than

  20. Pan-Arctic land–atmospheric fluxes of methane and carbon dioxide in response to climate change over the 21st century

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Future changes of pan-Arctic land–atmospheric methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2) depend on how terrestrial ecosystems respond to warming climate. Here, we used a coupled hydrology–biogeochemistry model to make our estimates of these carbon exchanges with two contrasting climate change scenarios (no-policy versus policy) over the 21st century, by considering (1) a detailed water table dynamics and (2) a permafrost-thawing effect. Our simulations indicate that, under present climate conditions, pan-Arctic terrestrial ecosystems act as a net greenhouse gas (GHG) sink of −0.2 Pg CO2-eq. yr−1, as a result of a CH4 source (53 Tg CH4 yr−1) and a CO2 sink (−0.4 Pg C yr−1). In response to warming climate, both CH4 emissions and CO2 uptakes are projected to increase over the century, but the increasing rates largely depend on the climate change scenario. Under the non-policy scenario, the CH4 source and CO2 sink are projected to increase by 60% and 75% by 2100, respectively, while the GHG sink does not show a significant trend. Thawing permafrost has a small effect on GHG sink under the policy scenario; however, under the no-policy scenario, about two thirds of the accumulated GHG sink over the 21st century has been offset by the carbon losses as CH4 and CO2 from thawing permafrost. Over the century, nearly all CO2-induced GHG sink through photosynthesis has been undone by CH4-induced GHG source. This study indicates that increasing active layer depth significantly affects soil carbon decomposition in response to future climate change. The methane emissions considering more detailed water table dynamics continuously play an important role in affecting regional radiative forcing in the pan-Arctic. (letter)

  1. Nonlinear controls on evapotranspiration in Arctic coastal wetlands

    OpenAIRE

    A. K. Liljedahl; Hinzman, L. D.; Harazono, Y.; Zona, D.; C. E. Tweedie; Hollister, R. D.; R. Engstrom; Oechel, W.C. (ed.)

    2011-01-01

    Projected increases in air temperature and precipitation due to climate change in Arctic wetlands could dramatically affect ecosystem functioning. As a consequence, it is important to define the controls on evapotranspiration, which is the major pathway of water loss from these systems. We quantified the multi-year controls on midday arctic coastal wetland evapotranspiration measured with the eddy covariance method at two vegetated drained thaw lake basins near Barrow, Alaska. Variations in n...

  2. Nonlinear controls on evapotranspiration in arctic coastal wetlands

    OpenAIRE

    A. K. Liljedahl; Hinzman, L. D.; Harazono, Y.; Zona, D.; C. E. Tweedie; Hollister, R. D.; R. Engstrom; Oechel, W.C. (ed.)

    2011-01-01

    Projected increases in air temperature and precipitation due to climate change in Arctic wetlands could dramatically affect ecosystem function. As a consequence, it is important to define controls on evapotranspiration, the major pathway of water loss from these systems. We quantified the multi-year controls on midday Arctic coastal wetland evapotranspiration, measured with the eddy covariance method at two vegetated, drained thaw lake basins near Barrow, Alaska. Variations ...

  3. Nonlinear controls on evapotranspiration in arctic coastal wetlands

    OpenAIRE

    A. K. Liljedahl; Hinzman, L. D.; Harazono, Y.; Zona, D.; C. E. Tweedie; Hollister, R. D.; R. Engstrom; Oechel, W.C. (ed.)

    2011-01-01

    Projected increases in air temperature and precipitation due to climate change in Arctic wetlands could dramatically affect ecosystem function. As a consequence, it is important to define controls on evapotranspiration, the major pathway of water loss from these systems. We quantified the multi-year controls on midday Arctic coastal wetland evapotranspiration, measured with the eddy covariance method at two vegetated, drained thaw lake basins near Barrow, Alaska. Variations in near-surface so...

  4. Arctic Rabies – A Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Prestrud Pål

    2004-03-01

    Full Text Available Rabies seems to persist throughout most arctic regions, and the northern parts of Norway, Sweden and Finland, is the only part of the Arctic where rabies has not been diagnosed in recent time. The arctic fox is the main host, and the same arctic virus variant seems to infect the arctic fox throughout the range of this species. The epidemiology of rabies seems to have certain common characteristics in arctic regions, but main questions such as the maintenance and spread of the disease remains largely unknown. The virus has spread and initiated new epidemics also in other species such as the red fox and the racoon dog. Large land areas and cold climate complicate the control of the disease, but experimental oral vaccination of arctic foxes has been successful. This article summarises the current knowledge and the typical characteristics of arctic rabies including its distribution and epidemiology.

  5. Climate Change Education in Earth System Science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hänsel, Stephanie; Matschullat, Jörg

    2013-04-01

    The course "Atmospheric Research - Climate Change" is offered to master Earth System Science students within the specialisation "Climate and Environment" at the Technical University Bergakademie Freiberg. This module takes a comprehensive approach to climate sciences, reaching from the natural sciences background of climate change via the social components of the issue to the statistical analysis of changes in climate parameters. The course aims at qualifying the students to structure the physical and chemical basics of the climate system including relevant feedbacks. The students can evaluate relevant drivers of climate variability and change on various temporal and spatial scales and can transform knowledge from climate history to the present and the future. Special focus is given to the assessment of uncertainties related to climate observations and projections as well as the specific challenges of extreme weather and climate events. At the end of the course the students are able to critically reflect and evaluate climate change related results of scientific studies and related issues in media. The course is divided into two parts - "Climate Change" and "Climate Data Analysis" and encompasses two lectures, one seminar and one exercise. The weekly "Climate change" lecture transmits the physical and chemical background for climate variation and change. (Pre)historical, observed and projected climate changes and their effects on various sectors are being introduced and discussed regarding their implications for society, economics, ecology and politics. The related seminar presents and discusses the multiple reasons for controversy in climate change issues, based on various texts. Students train the presentation of scientific content and the discussion of climate change aspects. The biweekly lecture on "Climate data analysis" introduces the most relevant statistical tools and methods in climate science. Starting with checking data quality via tools of exploratory

  6. Functional paleoclimate networks of North Atlantic terrestrial proxies: A new tool for studying spatio-temporal climate variability within the Arctic 2k framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franke, Jasper G.; Donner, Reik V.

    2016-04-01

    The increasing availability of high-resolution paleoclimate proxies allows to not only study climate variations in time, but also temporal changes in spatial variability patterns. In this study we use the method of functional paleoclimate network analysis [1] to investigate changes in the statistical similarity patterns among ensembles of high-resolution terrestrial paleoclimate records from Northern Europe. The study region ranging from Southern Finland over Northern Fennoscandia to Iceland is of paramount importance for reconstructions of the climate of the last two millennia within the Arctic 2k framework, and understanding the associated spatial variability of regional paleoclimate is a key question for further regional reconstructions. The analysis reported here is based on an ensemble of 16 paleoclimate proxy records comprising tree ring data from the Scandinavian Peninsula, different lacustrine archives from Southern Finland and one lake sediment record cored on Iceland, having a common interpretation as proxies of (mainly summer) temperatures. Based on the mentioned selection of existing data sets, we construct complex networks capturing the mutual statistical similarity of the variability recorded by different archives furing different episodes in time. These ''functional'' networks are not restricted to capturing linear Pearson correlations, but can also be obtained based on nonlinear characteristics like mutual information. This allows for comparing non-normally distributed time series or data of different origin like tree ring and lake sediment records as considered in this study. Furthermore, the obtained functional paleoclimate networks are used to test if regional (gridded) proxy-based temperature reconstructions preserve the essential spatial correlation patterns of the underlying archives. Temporal changes in the network structure indicate changing dynamics in the regional climate system and enable us to distinguish different episodes with distinct

  7. Climate Change Influences on Species Interrelationships and Distributions in High-Arctic Greenland

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    D. R., Klein; Bruun, H. H.; Lundgren, R.;

    2008-01-01

    and North Greenland coastal routes, and the majority of the plants have North American affinities. Climatic change, bringing about reduction in the extent sea ice adjacent to the coast and changes in seasonality and associated precipitation and air movements, influences patterns of activity, growth......, reproduction, and dispersal of all life forms present. Climate-associated changes in the biotic communities of the region are altering inter-species interactions, notably pollination, seed dispersal and plant-herbivore relations. Sexual reproduction and dispersal of propagules, primarily seeds, are essential...... will also be tied to the relationship of specific plant species to their insect pollinators. Those plants that are self-pollinated may have an initial advantage in an environment where insects and their plant relationships are being altered by the changing climate. An increase in growth and dispersal...

  8. AMAP Assessment 2013: Arctic Ocean acidification

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    This assessment report presents the results of the 2013 AMAP Assessment of Arctic Ocean Acidification (AOA). This is the first such assessment dealing with AOA from an Arctic-wide perspective, and complements several assessments that AMAP has delivered over the past ten years concerning the effects of climate change on Arctic ecosystems and people. The Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP) is a group working under the Arctic Council. The Arctic Council Ministers have requested AMAP to: - produce integrated assessment reports on the status and trends of the conditions of the Arctic ecosystems;

  9. Threshold sensitivity of shallow Arctic lakes and sublake permafrost to changing winter climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arp, Christopher D.; Jones, Benjamin M.; Grosse, Guido; Bondurant, Allen C.; Romanovksy, Vladimir E.; Hinkel, Kenneth M.; Parsekian, Andrew D.

    2016-01-01

    Interactions and feedbacks between abundant surface waters and permafrost fundamentally shape lowland Arctic landscapes. Sublake permafrost is maintained when the maximum ice thickness (MIT) exceeds lake depth and mean annual bed temperatures (MABTs) remain below freezing. However, declining MIT since the 1970s is likely causing talik development below shallow lakes. Here we show high-temperature sensitivity to winter ice growth at the water-sediment interface of shallow lakes based on year-round lake sensor data. Empirical model experiments suggest that shallow (1 m depth) lakes have warmed substantially over the last 30 years (2.4°C), with MABT above freezing 5 of the last 7 years. This is in comparison to slower rates of warming in deeper (3 m) lakes (0.9°C), with already well-developed taliks. Our findings indicate that permafrost below shallow lakes has already begun crossing a critical thawing threshold approximately 70 years prior to predicted terrestrial permafrost thaw in northern Alaska.

  10. Threshold sensitivity of shallow Arctic lakes and sublake permafrost to changing winter climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arp, Christopher D.; Jones, Benjamin M.; Grosse, Guido; Bondurant, Allen C.; Romanovsky, Vladimir E.; Hinkel, Kenneth M.; Parsekian, Andrew D.

    2016-06-01

    Interactions and feedbacks between abundant surface waters and permafrost fundamentally shape lowland Arctic landscapes. Sublake permafrost is maintained when the maximum ice thickness (MIT) exceeds lake depth and mean annual bed temperatures (MABTs) remain below freezing. However, declining MIT since the 1970s is likely causing talik development below shallow lakes. Here we show high-temperature sensitivity to winter ice growth at the water-sediment interface of shallow lakes based on year-round lake sensor data. Empirical model experiments suggest that shallow (1 m depth) lakes have warmed substantially over the last 30 years (2.4°C), with MABT above freezing 5 of the last 7 years. This is in comparison to slower rates of warming in deeper (3 m) lakes (0.9°C), with already well-developed taliks. Our findings indicate that permafrost below shallow lakes has already begun crossing a critical thawing threshold approximately 70 years prior to predicted terrestrial permafrost thaw in northern Alaska.

  11. TOPAZ4: an ocean-sea ice data assimilation system for the North Atlantic and Arctic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Sakov

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available We present a detailed description of TOPAZ4, the latest version of TOPAZ – a coupled ocean-sea ice data assimilation system for the North Atlantic Ocean and Arctic. It is the only operational, large-scale ocean data assimilation system that uses the ensemble Kalman filter. This means that TOPAZ features a time-evolving, state-dependent estimate of the state error covariance. Based on results from the pilot MyOcean reanalysis for 2003–2008, we demonstrate that TOPAZ4 produces a realistic estimate of the ocean circulation in the North Atlantic and the sea-ice variability in the Arctic. We find that the ensemble spread for temperature and sea-level remains fairly constant throughout the reanalysis demonstrating that the data assimilation system is robust to ensemble collapse. Moreover, the ensemble spread for ice concentration is well correlated with the actual errors. This indicates that the ensemble statistics provide reliable state-dependent error estimates – a feature that is unique to ensemble-based data assimilation systems. We demonstrate that the quality of the reanalysis changes when different sea surface temperature products are assimilated, or when in-situ profiles below the ice in the Arctic Ocean are assimilated. We find that data assimilation improves the match to independent observations compared to a free model. Improvements are particularly noticeable for ice thickness, salinity in the Arctic, and temperature in the Fram Strait, but not for transport estimates or underwater temperature. At the same time, the pilot reanalysis has revealed several flaws in the system that have degraded its performance. Finally, we show that a simple bias estimation scheme can effectively detect the seasonal or constant bias in temperature and sea-level.

  12. Cryostratigraphy, paleogeography, and climate change during the early Holocene warm interval, western Arctic coast, Canada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Botanical and cryostratigraphic records from northwest Canada indicate that the climate of the early Holocene was considerably warmer than today: tree line was over 100 km farther north; and a thaw unconformity, dating from 8000 14C years BP, formed at the base of an active layer 2.5 rimes thicker than at present. Numerous thermokarst-lake basins formed in the preceding millennia. Both the botanical and cryostratigraphic indices described are products of summer conditions. Previous reconstructions of early Holocene climate have not assessed the significance of paleocoastal location on the seasonality and extent of apparent climate warming. At present, there is a steep gradient in growing-season conditions between cooler sites on the Beaufort Sea coast and warmer, inland locations. Winter conditions are more uniform because both sea and land ate snow-covered. Coastal retreat in the region has been rapid, due to sea level rising over a gently sloping shelf containing readily erodible sediments. The coastline has moved about 100 km southward during the Holocene. The increasing proximity to the coast, through time, of points currently within 100 km of the sea may account for between one and two thirds of the cooling in summer climate experienced there since the mid-Holocene. (author)

  13. Past climate-driven range shifts and population genetic diversity in arctic plants

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pellissier, Loïc; Eidesen, Pernille Bronken; Ehrich, Dorothee;

    2016-01-01

    High intra-specific genetic diversity is necessary for species adaptation to novel environments under climate change, but species tracking suitable conditions are losing alleles through successive founder events during range shift. Here, we investigated the relationship between range shift since ...

  14. State of the Arctic Coast 2010: Scientific Review and Outlook

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rachold, V.; Forbes, D. L.; Kremer, H.; Lantuit, H.

    2010-12-01

    The coast is a key interface in the Arctic environment. It is a locus of human activity, a rich band of biodiversity, critical habitat, and high productivity, and among the most dynamic components of the circumpolar landscape. The Arctic coastal interface is a sensitive and important zone of interaction between land and sea, a region that provides essential ecosystem services and supports indigenous human lifestyles; a zone of expanding infrastructure investment and growing security concerns; and an area in which climate warming is expected to trigger landscape instability, rapid responses to change, and increased hazard exposure. Starting with a collaborative workshop in October 2007, the International Arctic Science Committee (IASC), the Land-Ocean Interactions in the Coastal Zone (LOICZ) Project and the International Permafrost Association (IPA) decided to jointly initiate an assessment of the state of the Arctic coast. The goal of this report is to draw on initial findings regarding climate change and human dimensions for the Arctic as a whole provided by the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA) and Arctic Human Development Report (AHDR) to develop a comprehensive picture of status and current and anticipated change in the most sensitive Arctic coastal areas. Underlying is the concept of a social ecological system perspective that explores the implications of change for the interaction of humans with nature. The report is aimed to be a first step towards a continuously updated coastal assessment and to identify key issues seeking future scientific concern in an international Earth system research agenda. The report titled “State of the Arctic Coast 2010: Scientific Review and Outlook” is the outcome of this collaborative effort. It is organized in three parts: the first provides an assessment of the state of Arctic coastal systems under three broad disciplinary themes - physical systems, ecological systems, and human concerns in the coastal zone; the

  15. Arctic Freshwater Synthesis: Summary of key emerging issues

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prowse, T.; Bring, A.; Mârd, J.; Carmack, E.; Holland, M.; Instanes, A.; Vihma, T.; Wrona, F. J.

    2015-10-01

    In response to a joint request from the World Climate Research Program's Climate and Cryosphere Project, the International Arctic Science Committee, and the Arctic Council's Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Program an updated scientific assessment has been conducted of the Arctic Freshwater System (AFS), entitled the Arctic Freshwater Synthesis (AFSΣ). The major reason behind the joint request was an increasing concern that changes to the AFS have produced, and could produce even greater, changes to biogeophysical and socioeconomic systems of special importance to northern residents and also produce extra-Arctic climatic effects that will have global consequences. The AFSΣ was structured around six key thematic areas: atmosphere, oceans, terrestrial hydrology, terrestrial ecology, resources, and modeling, the review of each coauthored by an international group of scientists and published as separate manuscripts in this special issue of Journal of Geophysical Research-Biogeosciences. This AFSΣ summary manuscript reviews key issues that emerged during the conduct of the synthesis, especially those that are cross-thematic in nature, and identifies future research required to address such issues.

  16. Late Cenozoic Paleoceanography of the Central Arctic Ocean

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Arctic Ocean is the smallest and perhaps least accessible of the worlds oceans. It occupies only 26% of the global ocean area, and less than 10% of its volume. However, it exerts a disproportionately large influence on the global climate system through a complex set of positive and negative feedback mechanisms directly or indirectly related to terrestrial ice and snow cover and sea ice. Increasingly, the northern high latitude cryosphere is seen as an exceptionally fragile part of the global climate system, a fact exemplified by observed reductions in sea ice extent during the past decades [2]. The paleoceanographic evolution of the Arctic Ocean can provide important insights into the physical forcing mechanisms that affect the form, intensity and permanence of ice in the high Arctic, and its sensitivity to these mechanisms in vastly different climate states of the past. However, marine records capturing the late Cenozoic paleoceanography of the Arctic are limited - most notably because only a single deep borehole exists from the central parts of this Ocean. This paper reviews the principal late Cenozoic (Neogene/Quaternary) results from the Arctic Coring Expedition to the Lomonosov Ridge and in light of recent data and observations on modern sea ice, outlines emerging questions related to three main themes: 1) the establishment of the 'modern' Arctic Ocean and the opening of the Fram Strait 2) the inception of perennial sea ice 3) The Quaternary intensification of Northern Hemisphere glaciations.

  17. Model estimates of climate controls on pan-Arctic wetland methane emissions

    OpenAIRE

    Chen, X.; Bohn, T. J; Lettenmaier, D. P.

    2015-01-01

    Climate factors including soil temperature and moisture, incident solar radiation, and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration are important environmental controls on methane (CH4) emissions from northern wetlands. We investigated the spatiotemporal distributions of the influence of these factors on northern high-latitude wetland CH4 emissions using an enhanced version of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land surface model. We simulated CH4 emissions from wetlands a...

  18. Model estimates of climate controls on pan-Arctic wetland methane emissions

    OpenAIRE

    Chen, X.; Bohn, T. J; Lettenmaier, D. P.

    2015-01-01

    Climate factors including soil temperature and moisture, incident solar radiation, and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration are important environmental controls on methane (CH4) emissions from northern wetlands. We investigated the spatio-temporal distributions of the influence of these factors on northern high latitude wetland CH4 emissions using an enhanced version of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land surface model. We simulated CH4 emissio...

  19. Arctic Glass: Innovative Consumer Technology in Support of Arctic Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruthkoski, T.

    2015-12-01

    The advancement of cyberinfrastructure on the North Slope of Alaska is drastically limited by location-specific conditions, including: unique geophysical features, remoteness of location, and harsh climate. The associated cost of maintaining this unique cyberinfrastructure also becomes a limiting factor. As a result, field experiments conducted in this region have historically been at a technological disadvantage. The Arctic Glass project explored a variety of scenarios where innovative consumer-grade technology was leveraged as a lightweight, rapidly deployable, sustainable, alternatives to traditional large-scale Arctic cyberinfrastructure installations. Google Glass, cloud computing services, Internet of Things (IoT) microcontrollers, miniature LIDAR, co2 sensors designed for HVAC systems, and portable network kits are several of the components field-tested at the Toolik Field Station as part of this project. Region-specific software was also developed, including a multi featured, voice controlled Google Glass application named "Arctic Glass". Additionally, real-time sensor monitoring and remote control capability was evaluated through the deployment of a small cluster of microcontroller devices. Network robustness was analyzed as the devices delivered streams of abiotic data to a web-based dashboard monitoring service in near real time. The same data was also uploaded synchronously by the devices to Amazon Web Services. A detailed overview of solutions deployed during the 2015 field season, results from experiments utilizing consumer sensors, and potential roles consumer technology could play in support of Arctic science will be discussed.

  20. Arctic Ocean Scientific Drilling: The Next Frontier

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ruediger Stein

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available The modern Arctic Ocean appears to be changing faster than any other region on Earth. To understand the potential extent of high latitude climate change, it is necessary to sample the history stored in the sediments filling the basins and covering the ridges of the Arctic Ocean. These sediments have been imaged with seismic reflection data, but except for the superficial record, which has been piston cored, they have been sampled only on the Lomonosov Ridge in 2004 during the Arctic Coring Expedition (ACEX-IODP Leg 302; Backman et al., 2006 and in 1993 in the ice-free waters in the Fram Strait/Yermak Plateau area (ODP Leg 151; Thiede et al., 1996.Although major progress in Arctic Ocean research has been made during the last few decades, the short- and long-term paleoceanographic and paleoclimatic history as well as its plate-tectonic evolution are poorly known compared to the other oceans. Despite the importance of the Arctic in the climate system, the database we have from this area is still very weak. Large segments of geologic time have not been sampled in sedimentary sections. The question of regional variations cannot be addressed.

  1. Observed and model simulated 20th century Arctic temperature variability: Canadian Earth System Model CanESM2

    OpenAIRE

    Chylek, P.; Li, J.; Dubey, M. K.; Wang, M.; Lesins, G.

    2011-01-01

    We present simulations of the 20th century Arctic temperature anomaly from the second generation Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2). The new model couples together an atmosphere-ocean general circulation model, a land-vegetation model and terrestrial and oceanic interactive carbon cycle. It simulates well the observed 20th century Arctic temperature variability that includes the early and late 20th century warming periods and the intervening 1940–1970 period of substantial cooling. The add...

  2. Observed and model simulated 20th century Arctic temperature variability: Canadian Earth System Model CanESM2

    OpenAIRE

    Chylek, P.; Li, J.; Dubey, M. K.; Wang, M.; Lesins, G.

    2011-01-01

    We present simulations of the 20th century Arctic temperature anomaly from the second generation Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2). The new model couples together an atmosphere-ocean general circulation model, a land-vegetation model and terrestrial and oceanic interactive carbon cycle. It simulates well the observed 20th century Arctic temperature variability that includes the early and late 20th century warming periods and the intervening 1940–1970 period of substantia...

  3. AROME-Arctic: New operational NWP model for the Arctic region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Süld, Jakob; Dale, Knut S.; Myrland, Espen; Batrak, Yurii; Homleid, Mariken; Valkonen, Teresa; Seierstad, Ivar A.; Randriamampianina, Roger

    2016-04-01

    In the frame of the EU-funded project ACCESS (Arctic Climate Change, Economy and Society), MET Norway aimed 1) to describe the present monitoring and forecasting capabilities in the Arctic; and 2) to identify the key factors limiting the forecasting capabilities and to give recommendations on key areas to improve the forecasting capabilities in the Arctic. We have observed that the NWP forecast quality is lower in the Arctic than in the regions further south. Earlier research indicated that one of the factors behind this is the composition of the observing system in the Arctic, in particular the scarceness of conventional observations. To further assess possible strategies for alleviating the situation and propose scenarios for a future Arctic observing system, we have performed a set of experiments to gain a more detailed insight in the contribution of the components of the present observing system in a regional state-of-the-art non-hydrostatic NWP model using the AROME physics (Seity et al, 2011) at 2.5 km horizontal resolution - AROME-Arctic. Our observing system experiment studies showed that conventional observations (Synop, Buoys) can play an important role in correcting the surface state of the model, but prove that the present upper-air conventional (Radiosondes, Aircraft) observations in the area are too scarce to have a significant effect on forecasts. We demonstrate that satellite sounding data play an important role in improving forecast quality. This is the case with satellite temperature sounding data (AMSU-A, IASI), as well as with the satellite moisture sounding data (AMSU-B/MHS, IASI). With these sets of observations, the AROME-Arctic clearly performs better in forecasting extreme events, like for example polar lows. For more details see presentation by Randriamampianina et al. in this session. The encouraging performance of AROME-Arctic lead us to implement it with more observations and improved settings into daily runs with the objective to

  4. Water temperature controls in low arctic rivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, Tyler V.; Neilson, Bethany T.; Overbeck, Levi D.; Kane, Douglas L.

    2016-06-01

    Understanding the dynamics of heat transfer mechanisms is critical for forecasting the effects of climate change on arctic river temperatures. Climate influences on arctic river temperatures can be particularly important due to corresponding effects on nutrient dynamics and ecological responses. It was hypothesized that the same heat and mass fluxes affect arctic and temperate rivers, but that relative importance and variability over time and space differ. Through data collection and application of a river temperature model that accounts for the primary heat fluxes relevant in temperate climates, heat fluxes were estimated for a large arctic basin over wide ranges of hydrologic conditions. Heat flux influences similar to temperate systems included dominant shortwave radiation, shifts from positive to negative sensible heat flux with distance downstream, and greater influences of lateral inflows in the headwater region. Heat fluxes that differed from many temperate systems included consistently negative net longwave radiation and small average latent heat fluxes. Radiative heat fluxes comprised 88% of total absolute heat flux while all other heat fluxes contributed less than 5% on average. Periodic significance was seen for lateral inflows (up to 26%) and latent heat flux (up to 18%) in the lower and higher stream order portions of the watershed, respectively. Evenly distributed lateral inflows from large scale flow differencing and temperatures from representative tributaries provided a data efficient method for estimating the associated heat loads. Poor model performance under low flows demonstrated need for further testing and data collection to support the inclusion of additional heat fluxes.

  5. Late Holocene climate and chemical change at high latitudes: case studies from contaminated sites in subarctic and arctic Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galloway, Jennifer M.; Cooney, Darryl; Crann, Carley; Falck, Hendrik; Howell, Dana; Jamieson, Heather; Macumber, Andrew; Nasser, Nawaf; Palmer, Michael; Patterson, R. Timothy; Parsons, Michael; Roe, Helen M.; Sanei, Hamed; Spence, Christopher; Stavinga, Drew; Swindles, Graeme T.

    2015-04-01

    Climate variability is occurring at unprecedented rates in northern regions of the Earth, yet little is known about the nature of this variability or its influence on chemical cycling in the environment, particularly in areas with a legacy of contamination from past resource development. We use a paleolimnological approach to reconstruct climate and chemical change over centuries and millennia at two sites in the mineral-rich Slave Geologic Province in Northern Canada heavily impacted by gold mining. Such an approach is necessary to define the cumulative effects of climate change on metal loading and can be used to define anthropogenic release of contaminants to support policy and regulation due to a paucity of long-term monitoring data. The Seabridge Gold Inc. Courageous Lake project is a gold exploration project 240 km north of Yellowknife in the central Northwest Territories, Arctic Canada. Mining operations took place within the claim area at the Tundra (1964-1968) and Salmita (1983-1987) mines. Giant Mine is located in the subarctic near the City of Yellowknife and mining at this site represents the longest continuous gold mining operation in Canada (1938 to 2002). Due to the refractory mineralogy of ore, gold was extracted from arsenopyrite by roasting, which resulted in release of substantial quantities of highly toxic arsenic trioxide to the environment. Arsenic (As) is also naturally elevated at these sites due its occurrence in Yellowknife Supergroup greenstone belts and surficial geologic deposits. To attempt to distinguish between geogenic and anthropogenic sources of As and characterize the role of climate change on metalloid mobility we used a freeze coring technology to capture lake sediments from the properties. Sediments were analyzed for sedimentary grain size and bulk geochemistry using ICP-MS to reconstruct climate and chemical change. Micropaleontological analyses are on-going. Interpretations of the physical, chemical, and biological archive

  6. Management system, organizational climate and performance relationships

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, B. D.

    1979-01-01

    Seven aerospace firms were investigated to determine if a relationship existed among management systems, organizational climate, and organization performance. Positive relationships were found between each of these variables, but a statistically significant relationship existed only between the management system and organizational climate. The direction and amount of communication and the degree of decentralized decision-making, elements of the management system, also had a statistically significant realtionship with organization performance.

  7. Modeling the 20th century Arctic Ocean/Sea ice system: Reconstruction of surface forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kauker, Frank; KöBerle, Cornelia; Gerdes, Rüdiger; Karcher, Michael

    2008-09-01

    The ability to simulate the past variability of the sea ice-ocean system is of fundamental interest for the identification of key processes and the evaluation of scenarios of future developments. To achieve this goal atmospheric surface fields are reconstructed by statistical means for the period 1900 to 1997 and applied to a coupled sea ice-ocean model of the North Atlantic/Arctic Ocean. We devised a statistical model using a redundancy analysis to reconstruct the atmospheric fields. Several sets of predictor and predictand fields are used for reconstructions on different time scales. The predictor fields are instrumental records available as gridded or station data sets of sea level pressure and surface air temperature. The predictands are surface fields from the NCAR/NCEP reanalysis. Spatial patterns are selected by maximizing predictand variance during a "learning" period. The reliability of these patterns is tested in a validation period. The ensemble of reconstructions is checked for robustness by mutual comparison and an "optimal" reconstruction is selected. Results of the simulations with the sea ice-ocean model are compared with historical sea ice extent observations for the Arctic and Nordic Seas. The results obtained with the "optimal" reconstruction are shown to be highly consistent with these historical data. An analysis of simulated trends of the "early 20th century warming" and the recent warming in the Arctic complete the manuscript.

  8. Shifts in Arctic phenology in response to climate and anthropogenic factors as detected from multiple satellite time series

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    There is an urgent need to reduce the uncertainties in remotely sensed detection of phenological shifts of high latitude ecosystems in response to climate changes in past decades. In this study, vegetation phenology in western Arctic Russia (the Yamal Peninsula) was investigated by analyzing and comparing Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series derived from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR), the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and SPOT-Vegetation (VGT) during the decade 2000–2010. The spatial patterns of key phenological parameters were highly heterogeneous along the latitudinal gradients based on multi-satellite data. There was earlier SOS (start of the growing season), later EOS (end of the growing season), longer LOS (length of the growing season), and greater MaxNDVI from north to south in the region. The results based on MODIS and VGT data showed similar trends in phenological changes from 2000 to 2010, while quite a different trend was found based on AVHRR data from 2000 to 2008. A significantly delayed EOS (p < 0.01), thus increasing the LOS, was found from AVHRR data, while no similar trends were detected from MODIS and VGT data. There were no obvious shifts in MaxNDVI during the last decade. MODIS and VGT data were considered to be preferred data for monitoring vegetation phenology in northern high latitudes. Temperature is still a key factor controlling spatial phenological gradients and variability, while anthropogenic factors (reindeer husbandry and resource exploitation) might explain the delayed SOS in southern Yamal. Continuous environmental damage could trigger a positive feedback to the delayed SOS. (letter)

  9. Climatic effect on DMS producers in the NE sub-Arctic Pacific: ENSO on the upper ocean

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    We examined dimethyl sulphide (DMS) data of two locations (P26 and P20) 1996-2001 in sub-Arctic NE Pacific with emphasis on 2 yr of DMS production measured in June and September of 1999 and 2000. At Station P26, integrated DMS to mixed layer depth (MLD) in June during 1999-2001 La Nina period averaged 102 ± 25 μmol/m2 or only 42% of the average of 242 ± 27 μmol/m2 measured during 1997-1998 El Nino period. The summer integrated DMS to MLD of 246 μmol/m2 in the year 2000 was 61% of summer average in the period 1996-1998 of 402 ± 115 μmol/m2. At Station P20 where the mean DMS level of the MLD in June during the La Nina years of 1999-2001 was 77 ± 7 μmol/m2, about 35% of 232 ± 22 μmol/m2 during the 1997-1998 El Nino. Phytoplankton species rich in DMSP (an algal precursor to DMS) were also more abundant in 1998 than in the years 1999-2001 with low DMS. The ENSO event was characterized by warmer, more stratified waters with MLD shallowing to about 19 m from 1996 to early 1998, compared to the following years. These results provide a first example of how climate fluctuations, through altering the physical and chemical properties of the upper ocean, may influence the structure of the phytoplankton assemblage and hence DMS concentrations in the open ocean

  10. Climatic effect on DMS producers in the NE sub-Arctic Pacific: ENSO on the upper ocean

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wong, Chi-Shing; Wong, Shau-King Emmy; Pena, Angelica [Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Sidney, BC (Canada). Inst. of Ocean Sciences; Levasseur, Maurice [Univ. Laval, Quebec (Canada). Dept. de biologie (Quebec-Ocean)

    2006-09-15

    We examined dimethyl sulphide (DMS) data of two locations (P26 and P20) 1996-2001 in sub-Arctic NE Pacific with emphasis on 2 yr of DMS production measured in June and September of 1999 and 2000. At Station P26, integrated DMS to mixed layer depth (MLD) in June during 1999-2001 La Nina period averaged 102 {+-} 25 {mu}mol/m{sup 2} or only 42% of the average of 242 {+-} 27 {mu}mol/m{sup 2} measured during 1997-1998 El Nino period. The summer integrated DMS to MLD of 246 {mu}mol/m{sup 2} in the year 2000 was 61% of summer average in the period 1996-1998 of 402 {+-} 115 {mu}mol/m{sup 2}. At Station P20 where the mean DMS level of the MLD in June during the La Nina years of 1999-2001 was 77 {+-} 7 {mu}mol/m{sup 2}, about 35% of 232 {+-} 22 {mu}mol/m{sup 2} during the 1997-1998 El Nino. Phytoplankton species rich in DMSP (an algal precursor to DMS) were also more abundant in 1998 than in the years 1999-2001 with low DMS. The ENSO event was characterized by warmer, more stratified waters with MLD shallowing to about 19 m from 1996 to early 1998, compared to the following years. These results provide a first example of how climate fluctuations, through altering the physical and chemical properties of the upper ocean, may influence the structure of the phytoplankton assemblage and hence DMS concentrations in the open ocean.

  11. Climate change and the loss of organic archaeological deposits in the Arctic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hollesen, Jørgen; Matthiesen, Henning; Møller, Anders Bjørn;

    2016-01-01

    of organic archaeological deposits located in different climatic zones in West and South Greenland. The rate of degradation is investigated based on measurements of O2 consumption, CO2 production and heat production at different temperatures and water contents. Overall, there is good consistency between...... the three methods. However, at one site the, O2 consumption is markedly higher than the CO2 production, highlighting the importance of combining several measures when assessing the vulnerability of organic deposits. The archaeological deposits are highly vulnerable to degradation regardless of age......, depositional and environmental conditions. Degradation rates of the deposits are more sensitive to increasing temperatures than natural soils and the process is accompanied by a high microbial heat production that correlates significantly with their total carbon content. We conclude that organic archaeology...

  12. Arctic shipping emissions inventories and future scenarios

    OpenAIRE

    J. J. Corbett; D. A. Lack; J. J. Winebrake; Harder, S; J. A. Silberman; Gold, M.

    2010-01-01

    The Arctic is a sensitive region in terms of climate change and a rich natural resource for global economic activity. Arctic shipping is an important contributor to the region's anthropogenic air emissions, including black carbon – a short-lived climate forcing pollutant especially effective in accelerating the melting of ice and snow. These emissions are projected to increase as declining sea ice coverage due to climate change allows for increased shipping activity in the Arctic. To understa...

  13. Improving Sea Ice Prediction in the NCEP Climate Forecast System Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collow, T. W.; Wang, W.; Kumar, A.

    2015-12-01

    Skillful prediction of Arctic sea ice is important for the wide variety of interests focused in that region. However, the current operational system used by the NOAA Climate Prediction Center does not adequately predict the seasonal climatology of sea ice extent and maintains too high sea ice coverage across the Arctic. It is thought that the primary reasoning for this lies in the initialization of sea ice thickness. Experiments are carried out using the Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) model with an improved sea ice thickness initialization from the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Analysis and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) rather than the default Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) sea ice thickness data. All other variables are initialized from CFSR. In addition, physics parameterizations are adjusted to better simulate real world conditions. Here we focus on hindcasts initialized from 2005-2014. Although the seasonal cycle of sea ice is generally better captured in runs that use PIOMAS sea ice thickness initialization, local sea ice freeze in early winter in the Bering Strait and Chukchi Sea is delayed when both sea ice thickness configurations are used. In addition ice freeze in the North Atlantic is more pronounced than in the observations. This shows that simply changing initial sea ice thickness is not enough to improve forecasts for all locations. Modeled atmospheric and oceanic parameters are investigated including the radiation budget, land surface temperature advection, and sub-surface oceanic heat flow to diagnose possible reasons for the modeling deficiencies, and further modifications to the model will be discussed.

  14. Toward Improved Estimation of the Dynamic Topography and Ocean Circulation in the High Latitude and Arctic Ocean: The Importance of GOCE

    OpenAIRE

    J. Johannessen; Raj, R; Nilsen, J.; Pripp, T.; Knudsen, P.; Counillon, F.; Stammer, D.; Bertino, L.; Andersen, O; Serra, N.(Physik-Institut, Universität Zürich, Zurich, Switzerland); Koldunov, N.

    2014-01-01

    The Arctic plays a fundamental role in the climate system and shows significant sensitivity to anthropogenic climate forcing and the ongoing climate change. Accelerated changes in the Arctic are already observed, including elevated air and ocean temperatures, declines of the summer sea ice extent and sea ice thickness influencing the albedo and CO2 exchange, melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet and increased thawing of surrounding permafrost regions. In turn, the hydrological cycle in the high ...

  15. Arctic River Mobility: A Baseline Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rowland, J. C.; Wilson, C. J.; Brumby, S. P.; Pope, P. A.

    2009-12-01

    In many arctic river systems, permafrost and the presence of frozen floodplain materials provides a significant source of bank cohesion. Due to this cohesion, permafrost may play an important control of arctic river mobility and meandering dynamics. Whether changes in the rates of permafrost thawing has had or will have as significant a geomorphic impact on arctic river meandering as has already been observed for arctic coastline retreat, lake size and distribution, and hillslope stability is at present an unanswered question. The potential impact of climate driven changes in arctic river meandering has important implications for river planform morphology, floodplain dynamics, river ecology, and the export of carbon and nutrients to coastal oceans. We present results of remote sensing analysis of river mobility for the Yukon River in Alaska and sections of the Siberian Rivers including the Lena, the Kolyma and the Indigirka Rivers. Comparisons of river location at successive intervals in time were conducted using Landsat imagery archives and higher resolution aerial photographs and satellite imagery. Extraction of river channel locations was accomplished using the GeniePro automated feature extraction software. Over the period of Landsat coverage (mid-1980s to present) arctic rivers show limited to no movement at the resolution of the Landsat data (30 m per pixel). On the Yukon Flats regions of the Yukon River, the most mobile sections of the river have migration rates comparable to reach-average values reported for temperate rivers; given that large portions of the Yukon display no detectable movement, reach-averaged values are far less than observed in temperate systems. Field inspection of areas of high erosion along the Yukon River indicate that erosional processes associated with the thermal degradation of permafrost play a dominant role in many of these areas. Thermal niching and large scale bank collapse due to undercutting play a large role in bank erosion

  16. Impacts of climate change on air pollution levels in the Northern Hemisphere with special focus on Europe and the Arctic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. B. Hedegaard

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available The response of a selected number of chemical species is inspected with respect to climate change. The coupled Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model ECHAM4-OPYC3 is providing meteorological fields for the Chemical long-range Transport Model DEHM. Three selected decades (1990s, 2040s and 2090s are inspected. The 1990s are used as a reference and validation period. In this decade an evaluation of the output from the DEHM model with ECHAM4-OPYC3 meteorology input data is carried out. The model results are tested against similar model simulations with MM5 meteorology and against observations from the EMEP monitoring sites in Europe.

    The test results from the validation period show that the overall statistics (e.g. mean values and standard deviations are similar for the two simulations. However, as one would expect the model setup with climate input data fails to predict correctly the timing of the variability in the observations. The overall performance of the ECHAM4-OPYC3 setup as meteorological input to the DEHM model is shown to be acceptable according to the applied ranking method. It is concluded that running a chemical long-range transport model on data from a "free run" climate model is scientifically sound. From the model runs of the three decades, it is found that the overall trend detected in the evolution of the chemical species, is the same between the 1990 decade and the 2040 decade and between the 2040 decade and the 2090 decade, respectively.

    The dominating impacts from climate change on a large number of the chemical species are related to the predicted temperature increase. Throughout the 21th century the ECHAM4-OPYC3 projects a global mean temperature increase of 3 K with local maxima up to 11 K in the Arctic winter based on the IPCC A2 emission scenario. As a consequence of this temperature increase, the temperature dependent biogenic emission of isoprene is predicted to increase significantly over land by

  17. Impacts of climate change on air pollution levels in the Northern Hemisphere with special focus on Europe and the Arctic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. B. Hedegaard

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available The response of a selected number of chemical species is inspected with respect to climate change. The coupled Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model ECHAM4-OPYC3 is providing meteorological fields for the Chemical long-range Transport Model DEHM. Three selected decades (1990s, 2040s and 2090s are inspected. The 1990s are used as a reference and validation period. In this decade an evaluation of the output from the DEHM model with ECHAM4-OPYC3 meteorology input data is carried out. The model results are tested against similar model simulations with MM5 meteorology and against observations from the EMEP monitoring sites in Europe.

    The test results from the validation period show that the overall statistics (e.g. mean values and standard deviations are similar for the two simulations. However, as one would expect the model setup with climate input data fails to predict correctly the timing of the variability in the observations. The overall performance of the ECHAM4-OPYC3 setup as meteorological input to the DEHM model is shown to be acceptable according to the applied ranking method. It is concluded that running a chemical long-range transport model on data from a "free run" climate model is scientifically sound. From the model runs of the three decades, it is found that the overall trend detected in the evolution of the chemical species, is the same between the 1990 decade and the 2040 decade and between the 2040 decade and the 2090 decade, respectively.

    The dominating impacts from climate change on a large number of the chemical species are related to the predicted temperature increase. Throughout the 21th century the ECHAM4-OPYC3 projects a global mean temperature increase of 3 K with local maxima up to 11 K in the Arctic winter based on the IPCC A2 emission scenario. As a consequence of this temperature increase, the temperature dependent biogenic emission of isoprene is predicted to increase significantly over land by

  18. Comparisons of late quaternary climatic development between the Arctic and Antarctic through calcareous nannofossils

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The content of calcareous nannofossils (remnants of microscopic planktonic algae) have been documented in numerous sediment cores from the Norwegian and Greenland Seas and in ODP Hole 704A from the subantarctic South Atlantic. Worldwide species extinctions, inceptions and distinct abundance variations have been used to correlate and date the studied cores, which comprise the last 500,000 years. The biostratigraphy has been correlated to oxygen isotope stratigraphy which shows that intervals rich in nannofossils represent interglacial time periods. The calcareous nannofossils indicate that during the time period studied, climatic fluctuations were similar in character and timing in both the subarctic and the subantarctic South Atlantic. Abundance patterns of warm water species suggest that surface waters were warmer than today only during oxygen isotope substage 5e (the last interglacial). The environment was interglacial also during isotope stages 9, 11, and 13, while stages 3 and 8 may have been characterized by intermediate glacial conditions. A significantly colder environment than at present prevailed in isotope stages 2, 4, 6, 10 and 12. Isotope stage 7 appears to have been fully interglacial in the subantarctic South Atlantic, but intermediate glacial in the Norwegian sea

  19. Climate Model Diagnostic Analyzer Web Service System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, S.; Pan, L.; Zhai, C.; Tang, B.; Kubar, T. L.; Li, J.; Zhang, J.; Wang, W.

    2015-12-01

    Both the National Research Council Decadal Survey and the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report stressed the need for the comprehensive and innovative evaluation of climate models with the synergistic use of global satellite observations in order to improve our weather and climate simulation and prediction capabilities. The abundance of satellite observations for fundamental climate parameters and the availability of coordinated model outputs from CMIP5 for the same parameters offer a great opportunity to understand and diagnose model biases in climate models. In addition, the Obs4MIPs efforts have created several key global observational datasets that are readily usable for model evaluations. However, a model diagnostic evaluation process requires physics-based multi-variable comparisons that typically involve large-volume and heterogeneous datasets, making them both computationally- and data-intensive. In response, we have developed a novel methodology to diagnose model biases in contemporary climate models and implementing the methodology as a web-service based, cloud-enabled, provenance-supported climate-model evaluation system. The evaluation system is named Climate Model Diagnostic Analyzer (CMDA), which is the product of the research and technology development investments of several current and past NASA ROSES programs. The current technologies and infrastructure of CMDA are designed and selected to address several technical challenges that the Earth science modeling and model analysis community faces in evaluating and diagnosing climate models. In particular, we have three key technology components: (1) diagnostic analysis methodology; (2) web-service based, cloud-enabled technology; (3) provenance-supported technology. The diagnostic analysis methodology includes random forest feature importance ranking, conditional probability distribution function, conditional sampling, and time-lagged correlation map. We have implemented the

  20. Vertical profiles of specific surface area, thermal conductivity and density of mid-latitude, Arctic and Antarctic snow: relationships between snow physics and climat

    Science.gov (United States)

    Domine, F.; Arnaud, L.; Bock, J.; Carmagnola, C.; Champollion, N.; Gallet, J.; Lesaffre, B.; Morin, S.; Picard, G.

    2011-12-01

    We have measured vertical profiles of specific surface area (SSA), thermal conductivity (TC) and density in snow from 12 different climatic regions featuring seasonal snowpacks of maritime, Alpine, taiga and tundra types, on Arctic sea ice, and from ice caps in Greenland and Antarctica. We attempt to relate snow physical properties to climatic variables including precipitation, temperature and its yearly variation, wind speed and its short scale temporal variations. As expected, temperature is a key variable that determines snow properties, mostly by determining the metamorphic regime (temperature gradient or equi-temperature) in conjunction with precipitation. However, wind speed and wind speed distribution also seem to have an at least as important role. For example high wind speeds determine the formation of windpacks of high SSA and high TC instead of depth hoar with lower values of these variables. The distribution of wind speed also strongly affects properties, as for example frequent moderate winds result in frequent snow remobilization, producing snow with higher SSA and lower TC than regions with the same average wind speeds, but with less frequent and more intense wind episodes. These strong effects of climate on snow properties imply that climate change will greatly modify snow properties, which in turn will affect climate, as for example changes in snow SSA modify albedo and changes in TC affect permafrost and the release of greenhouse gases from thawing permafrost. Some of these climate-snow feedbacks will be discussed.

  1. Interact - Access to the Arctic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johansson, M.; Callaghan, T. V.

    2013-12-01

    INTERACT is currently a network of 50 terrestrial research stations from all Arctic countries, but is still growing. The network was inaugurated in January 2011 when it received an EU 7th Framework award. INTERACT's main objective is to build capacity for identifying, understanding, predicting and responding to diverse environmental changes throughout the wide environmental and land-use envelopes of the Arctic. Implicit in this objective is the task to build capacity for monitoring, research, education and outreach. INTERACT is increasing access to the Arctic: 20 INTERACT research stations in Europe and Russia are offering Transnational Access and so far, 5600 person-days of access have been granted from the total of 10,000 offered. An INTERACT Station Managers' Forum facilitates a dialogue among station managers on subjects such as best practice in station management and standardised monitoring. The Station Managers' Forum has produced a unique 'one-stop-shop' for information from 45 research stations in an informative and attractive Station Catalogue that is available in hard copy and on the INTERACT web site (www.eu-interact.org). INTERACT also includes three joint research activities that are improving monitoring in remote, harsh environments and are making data capture and dissemination more efficient. Already, new equipment for measuring feedbacks from the land surface to the climate system has been installed at several locations, while best practices for sensor networking have been established. INTERACT networks with most of the high-level Arctic organisations: it includes AMAP and WWF as partners, is endorsed by IASC and CBMP, has signed MoUs with ISAC and the University of the Arctic, is a task within SAON, and contributes to the Cold Region community within GEO/GEOSS. INTERACT welcomes other interactions.

  2. Revisiting the relationship between Arctic sea-ice thickness and snow depth through climate-model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bunzel, Felix; Notz, Dirk; Toudal Pedersen, Leif

    2016-04-01

    The thickness of snow covering sea ice is a crucial parameter in any algorithm deriving sea-ice thickness from satellite-measured sea-ice freeboard. Here we investigate whether such snow thickness can robustly be estimated by assuming a simple correlation between snow thickness and sea-ice thickness. Such correlation is sometimes applied in schemes that aim at correcting the multi-year Warren snow climatology for the more recent past. In order to quantify the relationship between sea-ice thickness and snow depth, we analyse the correlation of ice thickness and snow depth in a multi-century pre-industrial model simulation and in a transient historical simulation performed with the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM). We find correlation coefficients to be low in the central Arctic, while they show substantial regional and temporal variations in the vicinity of the ice edge. Our results point towards possibly substantial errors in algorithms that assume too simplistic a relationship between sea-ice thickness and snow depth.

  3. AGU Position Statement: Geoengineering the Climate System

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    Human responsibility for most of the well-documented increase in global average temperatures over the last half century is well established. Further greenhouse gas emissions, particularly of carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels, will almost certainly contribute to additional widespread climate changes that can be expected to cause major negative consequences for most nations.1 Three proactive strategies could reduce the risks of climate change: 1) mitigation: reducing emissions; 2) adaptation: moderating climate impacts by increasing our capacity to cope with them; and 3) geoengineering: deliberately manipulating physical, chemical, or biological aspects of the Earth system.2 This policy statement focuses on large-scale efforts to geoengineer the climate system to counteract the consequences of increasing greenhouse gas emissions.

  4. The heartbeat of the Oligocene climate system

    OpenAIRE

    H. Pälike; Norris, R. D.; Herrle, J. O.; Wilson, P. A.; Coxall, H.K.; Lear, C.H.; Shackleton, N. J.; A. K. Tripati; Wade, B. S.

    2006-01-01

    A 13-million-year continuous record of Oligocene climate from the equatorial Pacific reveals a pronounced “heartbeat” in the global carbon cycle and periodicity of glaciations. This heartbeat consists of 405,000-, 127,000-, and 96,000-year eccentricity cycles and 1.2-million-year obliquity cycles in periodically recurring glacial and carbon cycle events. That climate system response to intricate orbital variations suggests a fundamental interaction of the carbon cycle, solar forcing, and glac...

  5. Low-energy house in Arctic climate - 5 years of experience

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vladyková, Petra; Rode, Carsten; Kragh, J.; Kotol, Martin

    2011-01-01

    production. Also presented are the results of several investigations carried out in the house, such as blower‐door tests and inspection of the ventilation system. The initial target for the heating demand of the house was that it should be restricted to 80 kWh/(m2⋅a), but in reality it has varied over the...

  6. Arctic Tides from GPS on sea-ice

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kildegaard Rose, Stine; Skourup, Henriette; Forsberg, René

    2013-01-01

    The presence of sea-ice in the Arctic Ocean plays a significant role in the Arctic climate. Sea-ice dampens the ocean tide amplitude with the result that global tidal models perform less accurately in the polar regions. This paper presents, a kinematic processing of global positioning system (GPS......) placed on sea-ice, at six different sites north of Greenland for the preliminary study of sea surface height (SSH), and tidal analysis to improve tide models in the Central Arctic. The GPS measurements are compared with the Arctic tide model AOTIM-5, which assimilates tide-gauges and altimetry data. The...... results show coherence between the GPS buoy measurements, and the tide model. Furthermore, we have proved that the reference ellipsoid of WGS84, can be interpolated to the tidal defined zero level by applying geophysical corrections to the GPS data....

  7. Risk assessment of climate systems for national security.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A.; Boslough, Mark Bruce Elrick; Brown, Theresa Jean; Cai, Ximing [University of Illinois-Urbana; Conrad, Stephen Hamilton; Constantine, Paul [Stanford University; Dalbey, Keith R.; Debusschere, Bert J.; Fields, Richard; Hart, David Blaine; Kalinina, Elena Arkadievna; Kerstein, Alan R.; Levy, Michael [National Center for Atmospheric Research; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Malczynski, Leonard A.; Najm, Habib N.; Overfelt, James Robert; Parks, Mancel Jordan; Peplinski, William J.; Safta, Cosmin; Sargsyan, Khachik; Stubblefield, William Anthony; Taylor, Mark A.; Tidwell, Vincent Carroll; Trucano, Timothy Guy; Villa, Daniel L.

    2012-10-01

    Climate change, through drought, flooding, storms, heat waves, and melting Arctic ice, affects the production and flow of resource within and among geographical regions. The interactions among governments, populations, and sectors of the economy require integrated assessment based on risk, through uncertainty quantification (UQ). This project evaluated the capabilities with Sandia National Laboratories to perform such integrated analyses, as they relate to (inter)national security. The combining of the UQ results from climate models with hydrological and economic/infrastructure impact modeling appears to offer the best capability for national security risk assessments.

  8. Reconciliation of essential process parameters for an enhanced predictability of Arctic stratospheric ozone loss and its climate interactions (RECONCILE): activities and results

    Science.gov (United States)

    von Hobe, M.; Bekki, S.; Borrmann, S.; Cairo, F.; D'Amato, F.; Di Donfrancesco, G.; Dörnbrack, A.; Ebersoldt, A.; Ebert, M.; Emde, C.; Engel, I.; Ern, M.; Frey, W.; Genco, S.; Griessbach, S.; Grooß, J.-U.; Gulde, T.; Günther, G.; Hösen, E.; Hoffmann, L.; Homonnai, V.; Hoyle, C. R.; Isaksen, I. S. A.; Jackson, D. R.; Jánosi, I. M.; Jones, R. L.; Kandler, K.; Kalicinsky, C.; Keil, A.; Khaykin, S. M.; Khosrawi, F.; Kivi, R.; Kuttippurath, J.; Laube, J. C.; Lefèvre, F.; Lehmann, R.; Ludmann, S.; Luo, B. P.; Marchand, M.; Meyer, J.; Mitev, V.; Molleker, S.; Müller, R.; Oelhaf, H.; Olschewski, F.; Orsolini, Y.; Peter, T.; Pfeilsticker, K.; Piesch, C.; Pitts, M. C.; Poole, L. R.; Pope, F. D.; Ravegnani, F.; Rex, M.; Riese, M.; Röckmann, T.; Rognerud, B.; Roiger, A.; Rolf, C.; Santee, M. L.; Scheibe, M.; Schiller, C.; Schlager, H.; Siciliani de Cumis, M.; Sitnikov, N.; Søvde, O. A.; Spang, R.; Spelten, N.; Stordal, F.; Sumińska-Ebersoldt, O.; Ulanovski, A.; Ungermann, J.; Viciani, S.; Volk, C. M.; vom Scheidt, M.; von der Gathen, P.; Walker, K.; Wegner, T.; Weigel, R.; Weinbruch, S.; Wetzel, G.; Wienhold, F. G.; Wohltmann, I.; Woiwode, W.; Young, I. A. K.; Yushkov, V.; Zobrist, B.; Stroh, F.

    2013-09-01

    The international research project RECONCILE has addressed central questions regarding polar ozone depletion, with the objective to quantify some of the most relevant yet still uncertain physical and chemical processes and thereby improve prognostic modelling capabilities to realistically predict the response of the ozone layer to climate change. This overview paper outlines the scope and the general approach of RECONCILE, and it provides a summary of observations and modelling in 2010 and 2011 that have generated an in many respects unprecedented dataset to study processes in the Arctic winter stratosphere. Principally, it summarises important outcomes of RECONCILE including (i) better constraints and enhanced consistency on the set of parameters governing catalytic ozone destruction cycles, (ii) a better understanding of the role of cold binary aerosols in heterogeneous chlorine activation, (iii) an improved scheme of polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) processes that includes heterogeneous nucleation of nitric acid trihydrate (NAT) and ice on non-volatile background aerosol leading to better model parameterisations with respect to denitrification, and (iv) long transient simulations with a chemistry-climate model (CCM) updated based on the results of RECONCILE that better reproduce past ozone trends in Antarctica and are deemed to produce more reliable predictions of future ozone trends. The process studies and the global simulations conducted in RECONCILE show that in the Arctic, ozone depletion uncertainties in the chemical and microphysical processes are now clearly smaller than the sensitivity to dynamic variability.

  9. Reconciliation of essential process parameters for an enhanced predictability of Arctic stratospheric ozone loss and its climate interactions (RECONCILE: activities and results

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. von Hobe

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available The international research project RECONCILE has addressed central questions regarding polar ozone depletion, with the objective to quantify some of the most relevant yet still uncertain physical and chemical processes and thereby improve prognostic modelling capabilities to realistically predict the response of the ozone layer to climate change. This overview paper outlines the scope and the general approach of RECONCILE, and it provides a summary of observations and modelling in 2010 and 2011 that have generated an in many respects unprecedented dataset to study processes in the Arctic winter stratosphere. Principally, it summarises important outcomes of RECONCILE including (i better constraints and enhanced consistency on the set of parameters governing catalytic ozone destruction cycles, (ii a better understanding of the role of cold binary aerosols in heterogeneous chlorine activation, (iii an improved scheme of polar stratospheric cloud (PSC processes that includes heterogeneous nucleation of nitric acid trihydrate (NAT and ice on non-volatile background aerosol leading to better model parameterisations with respect to denitrification, and (iv long transient simulations with a chemistry-climate model (CCM updated based on the results of RECONCILE that better reproduce past ozone trends in Antarctica and are deemed to produce more reliable predictions of future ozone trends. The process studies and the global simulations conducted in RECONCILE show that in the Arctic, ozone depletion uncertainties in the chemical and microphysical processes are now clearly smaller than the sensitivity to dynamic variability.

  10. Polar stratospheric ozone: interactions with climate change, results from the EU project RECONCILE, and the 2010/11 Arctic ozone hole

    Science.gov (United States)

    von Hobe, Marc

    2013-04-01

    One of the most profound and well known examples of human impacts on atmospheric chemistry is the so called ozone hole. During the second half of the 20th century, anthropogenic emissions of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) led to a significant increase in stratospheric chlorine levels and hence the rate of ozone removal by catalytic cycles involving chlorine. While CFCs were essentially banned by the 1987 Montreal Protocol and its subsequent amendments, and stratospheric chlorine levels have recently started to decline again, another anthropogenic influence may at least delay the recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer: climate change, with little doubt a result of human emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, has led to changes in stratospheric temperature and circulation. The large ozone losses that typically occur in polar regions in spring are particularly affected by these changes. Here, we give an overview of the ozone-climate interactions affecting polar stratospheric ozone loss, and present latest results from the international research project RECONCILE funded by the European Commission. Remaining open questions will be discussed including the possible impacts of recently suggested geoengineering concepts to artificially enhance the stratospheric aerosol loading. A special focus will also be put on the 2010/11 Arctic winter that saw the first Arctic Ozone hole, including an impact study on surface UV radiation in the densely populated northern mid-latitudes.

  11. Mapping the future expansion of Arctic open water

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnhart, Katherine R.; Miller, Christopher R.; Overeem, Irina; Kay, Jennifer E.

    2016-03-01

    Sea ice impacts most of the Arctic environment, from ocean circulation and marine ecosystems to animal migration and marine transportation. Sea ice has thinned and decreased in age over the observational record. Ice extent has decreased. Reduced ice cover has warmed the surface ocean, accelerated coastal erosion and impacted biological productivity. Declines in Arctic sea-ice extent cannot be explained by internal climate variability alone and can be attributed to anthropogenic effects. However, extent is a poor measure of ice decline at specific locations as it integrates over the entire Arctic basin and thus contains no spatial information. The open water season, in contrast, is a metric that represents the duration of open water over a year at an individual location. Here we present maps of the open water season over the period 1920-2100 using daily output from a 30-member initial-condition ensemble of business-as-usual climate simulations that characterize the expansion of Arctic open water, determine when the open water season will move away from pre-industrial conditions (`shift’ time) and identify when human forcing will take the Arctic sea-ice system outside its normal bounds (`emergence’ time). The majority of the Arctic nearshore regions began shifting in 1990 and will begin leaving the range of internal variability in 2040. Models suggest that ice will cover coastal regions for only half of the year by 2070.

  12. Development of arctic wind technology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Holttinen, H.; Marjaniemi, M.; Antikainen, P. [VTT Energy, Espoo (Finland)

    1998-10-01

    The climatic conditions of Lapland set special technical requirements for wind power production. The most difficult problem regarding wind power production in arctic regions is the build-up of hard and rime ice on structures of the machine

  13. The Community Climate System Model: CCSM3

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Collins, W D; Blackmon, M; Bitz, C; Bonan, G; Bretherton, C S; Carton, J A; Chang, P; Doney, S; Hack, J J; Kiehl, J T; Henderson, T; Large, W G; McKenna, D; Santer, B D; Smith, R D

    2004-12-27

    A new version of the Community Climate System Model (CCSM) has been developed and released to the climate community. CCSM3 is a coupled climate model with components representing the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, and land surface connected by a flux coupler. CCSM3 is designed to produce realistic simulations over a wide range of spatial resolutions, enabling inexpensive simulations lasting several millennia or detailed studies of continental-scale climate change. This paper will show results from the configuration used for climate-change simulations with a T85 grid for atmosphere and land and a 1-degree grid for ocean and sea-ice. The new system incorporates several significant improvements in the scientific formulation. The enhancements in the model physics are designed to reduce or eliminate several systematic biases in the mean climate produced by previous editions of CCSM. These include new treatments of cloud processes, aerosol radiative forcing, land-atmosphere fluxes, ocean mixed-layer processes, and sea-ice dynamics. There are significant improvements in the sea-ice thickness, polar radiation budgets, equatorial sea-surface temperatures, ocean currents, cloud radiative effects, and ENSO teleconnections. CCSM3 can produce stable climate simulations of millenial duration without ad hoc adjustments to the fluxes exchanged among the component models. Nonetheless, there are still systematic biases in the ocean-atmosphere fluxes in western coastal regions, the spectrum of ENSO variability, the spatial distribution of precipitation in the Pacific and Indian Oceans, and the continental precipitation and surface air temperatures. We conclude with the prospects for extending CCSM to a more comprehensive model of the Earth's climate system.

  14. Climate change impacts on food system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, X.; Cai, X.; Zhu, T.

    2014-12-01

    Food system includes biophysical factors (climate, land and water), human environments (production technologies and food consumption, distribution and marketing), as well as the dynamic interactions within them. Climate change affects agriculture and food systems in various ways. Agricultural production can be influenced directly by climatic factors such as mean temperature rising, change in rainfall patterns, and more frequent extreme events. Eventually, climate change could cause shift of arable land, alteration of water availability, abnormal fluctuation of food prices, and increase of people at risk of malnutrition. This work aims to evaluate how climate change would affect agricultural production biophysically and how these effects would propagate to social factors at the global level. In order to model the complex interactions between the natural and social components, a Global Optimization model of Agricultural Land and Water resources (GOALW) is applied to the analysis. GOALW includes various demands of human society (food, feed, other), explicit production module, and irrigation water availability constraint. The objective of GOALW is to maximize global social welfare (consumers' surplus and producers' surplus).Crop-wise irrigation water use in different regions around the world are determined by the model; marginal value of water (MVW) can be obtained from the model, which implies how much additional welfare benefit could be gained with one unit increase in local water availability. Using GOALW, we will analyze two questions in this presentation: 1) how climate change will alter irrigation requirements and how the social system would buffer that by price/demand adjustment; 2) how will the MVW be affected by climate change and what are the controlling factors. These results facilitate meaningful insights for investment and adaptation strategies in sustaining world's food security under climate change.

  15. Measurements of the dissolved inorganic carbon system and associated biogeochemical parameters in the Canadian Arctic, 1974–2009

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. E. Giesbrecht

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available We have assembled and conducted primary quality control on previously publically-unavailable water column measurements of the dissolved inorganic carbon system and associated biogeochemical parameters (oxygen, nutrients, etc. made on 25 cruises in the subarctic and Arctic regions dating from as far back as 1974. The measurements are primarily from the western side of the Canadian Arctic, but also include data ranging from the North Pacific to the Gulf of St. Lawrence. The data were subjected to primary quality control (QC to identify outliers and obvious errors. This dataset incorporates over four thousand individual measurements of total inorganic carbon (TIC, alkalinity, and pH from the Canadian Arctic over a period of more than 30 yr and provides an opportunity to increase our understanding of temporal changes in the inorganic carbon system in northern waters and the Arctic Ocean. The dataset is available for download on the CDIAC website: http://cdiac.ornl.gov/ftp/oceans/IOS_Arctic_Database/ (doi:10.3334/CDIAC/OTG.IOS_ARCT_CARBN.

  16. Observing the carbon-climate system

    CERN Document Server

    Schimel, David; Moore, Berrien; Chatterjee, Abhishek; Baker, David; Berry, Joe; Bowman, Kevin; Crisp, Phillipe Ciais David; Crowell, Sean; Denning, Scott; Duren, Riley; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Gierach, Michelle; Gurney, Kevin; Hibbard, Kathy; Houghton, Richard A; Huntzinger, Deborah; Hurtt, George; Jucks, Ken; Kawa, Randy; Koster, Randy; Koven, Charles; Luo, Yiqi; Masek, Jeff; McKinley, Galen; Miller, Charles; Miller, John; Moorcroft, Paul; Nassar, Ray; ODell, Chris; Ott, Leslie; Pawson, Steven; Puma, Michael; Quaife, Tristan; Riris, Haris; Romanou, Anastasia; Rousseaux, Cecile; Schuh, Andrew; Shevliakova, Elena; Tucker, Compton; Wang, Ying Ping; Williams, Christopher; Xiao, Xiangming; Yokota, Tatsuya

    2016-01-01

    Increases in atmospheric CO2 and CH4 result from a combination of forcing from anthropogenic emissions and Earth System feedbacks that reduce or amplify the effects of those emissions on atmospheric concentrations. Despite decades of research carbon-climate feedbacks remain poorly quantified. The impact of these uncertainties on future climate are of increasing concern, especially in the wake of recent climate negotiations. Emissions, long concentrated in the developed world, are now shifting to developing countries, where the emissions inventories have larger uncertainties. The fraction of anthropogenic CO2 remaining in the atmosphere has remained remarkably constant over the last 50 years. Will this change in the future as the climate evolves? Concentrations of CH4, the 2nd most important greenhouse gas, which had apparently stabilized, have recently resumed their increase, but the exact cause for this is unknown. While greenhouse gases affect the global atmosphere, their sources and sinks are remarkably he...

  17. Extending Hydrologic Information Systems to accommodate Arctic marine observations data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hersh, Eric S.; Maidment, David R.

    2014-04-01

    The Chukchi Sea Offshore Monitoring in Drilling Area - Chemical and Benthos (COMIDA CAB) project characterizes the biota and chemistry of the continental shelf ecosystem of a region of the Chukchi Sea to form a baseline survey of environmental conditions before drilling for oil commences. This paper describes the COMIDA CAB project data and processing methods, which provide a novel approach to data tracking and archiving from marine sampling cruises. This approach features an adaptation of the Consortium of Universities for the Advancement of Hydrologic Science. Observations Data Model for application with physical, chemical, and biological oceanographic data - a new extension of the CUAHSI Hydrologic Information System - thus bringing hydroinformatics into the oceanographic realm. Environmental sampling has been carried out by five separate scientific teams who characterize particular classes of physical, chemical and biological variables, and who each have their own methods of processing samples in their laboratories following the two sampling cruises made to the Chukchi Sea in the summers of 2009 and 2010. The results of their observations and analyses are stored in data files, mostly in Excel format, whose structure is defined differently by each scientific team. In all, the 2009 and 2010 COMIDA CAB field efforts yielded a database of 510,405 data values. Of these, 474,129 were derived from continuous in-situ data sonde profiles and 36,276 were derived from non-sonde extracted samples of the sediment, epibenthos, and water column. These data values represent 301 variables measured at 65 sites and originated from 26 different source files. The biological observations represented 519 distinct taxa. The data from these files are transformed and synthesized into a comprehensive project database in which a set of standardized descriptors of each observed data value are specified and each data value is linked to the data file from which it was created to establish a

  18. Shaping a Sustainability Strategy for the Arctic

    OpenAIRE

    Azcarate, Juan; Balfors, Berit; Destouni, Georgia; Bring, Arvid

    2011-01-01

    The development of the Arctic is shaped by the opportunities and constraints brought by climate change and technological advances. In the Arctic, warmer climate is expected to affect ecosystems, local communities and infrastructure due to a combination of effects like reduced sea ice and glaciers, thawing permafrost and increased frequency of floods. Less ice and new technologies mean openings to exploit natural resources in the Arctic. Fishing, mining, hydrocarbon extraction and vessel trans...

  19. Arctic whaling : proceedings of the International Symposium Arctic Whaling February 1983

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jacob, H.K. s'; Snoeijing, K

    1984-01-01

    Contents: D.M. Hopkins and Louie Marincovich Jr. Whale Biogeography and the history of the Arctic Basin P.M. Kellt, J.H.W. Karas and L.D. Williams Arctic Climate: Past, Present and Future Torgny E. Vinje On the present state and the future fate of the Arctic sea ice cover P.J.H. van Bree On the biol

  20. Terrestrial biogeochemical feedbacks in the climate system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arneth, A.; Harrison, S. P.; Zaehle, S.; Tsigaridis, K.; Menon, S.; Bartlein, P. J.; Feichter, J.; Korhola, A.; Kulmala, M.; O'Donnell, D.; Schurgers, G.; Sorvari, S.; Vesala, T.

    2010-08-01

    The terrestrial biosphere is a key regulator of atmospheric chemistry and climate. During past periods of climate change, vegetation cover and interactions between the terrestrial biosphere and atmosphere changed within decades. Modern observations show a similar responsiveness of terrestrial biogeochemistry to anthropogenically forced climate change and air pollution. Although interactions between the carbon cycle and climate have been a central focus, other biogeochemical feedbacks could be as important in modulating future climate change. Total positive radiative forcings resulting from feedbacks between the terrestrial biosphere and the atmosphere are estimated to reach up to 0.9 or 1.5 W m-2 K-1 towards the end of the twenty-first century, depending on the extent to which interactions with the nitrogen cycle stimulate or limit carbon sequestration. This substantially reduces and potentially even eliminates the cooling effect owing to carbon dioxide fertilization of the terrestrial biota. The overall magnitude of the biogeochemical feedbacks could potentially be similar to that of feedbacks in the physical climate system, but there are large uncertainties in the magnitude of individual estimates and in accounting for synergies between these effects.

  1. Exploring Arctic Transpolar Drift During Dramatic Sea Ice Retreat

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gascard, J.C.; Festy, J.; le Goff, H.;

    2008-01-01

    The Arctic is undergoing significant environmental changes due to climate warming. The most evident signal of this warming is the shrinking and thinning of the ice cover of the Arctic Ocean. If the warming continues, as global climate models predict, the Arctic Ocean will change from a perennially...

  2. Reconstruction of the Arctic Ocean environment during the Eocene Azolla interval using geochemical proxies and climate modeling. Geologica Ultraiectina (331)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Speelman, E.N.

    2010-01-01

    With the realization that the Arctic Ocean was covered with enormous quantities of the aquatic floating fern Azolla 49 Myrs ago, new questions regarding the Eocene conditions facilitating these blooms arose. This dissertation describes the reconstruction of paleo-environmental conditions facilitatin

  3. Arctic Browning: vegetation damage and implications for carbon balance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Treharne, Rachael; Bjerke, Jarle; Emberson, Lisa; Tømmervik, Hans; Phoenix, Gareth

    2016-04-01

    'Arctic browning' is the loss of biomass and canopy in Arctic ecosystems. This process is often driven by climatic and biological extreme events - notably extreme winter warm periods, winter frost-drought and severe outbreaks of defoliating insects. Evidence suggests that browning is becoming increasingly frequent and severe at the pan-arctic scale, a view supported by observations from more intensely observed regions, with major and unprecedented vegetation damage reported at landscape (>1000km2) and regional (Nordic Arctic Region) scales in recent years. Critically, the damage caused by these extreme events is in direct opposition to 'Arctic greening', the well-established increase in productivity and shrub abundance observed at high latitudes in response to long-term warming. This opposition creates uncertainty as to future anticipated vegetation change in the Arctic, with implications for Arctic carbon balance. As high latitude ecosystems store around twice as much carbon as the atmosphere, and vegetation impacts are key to determining rates of loss or gain of ecosystem carbon stocks, Arctic browning has the potential to influence the role of these ecosystems in global climate. There is therefore a clear need for a quantitative understanding of the impacts of browning events on key ecosystem carbon fluxes. To address this, field sites were chosen in central and northern Norway and in Svalbard, in areas known to have been affected by either climatic extremes or insect outbreak and subsequent browning in the past four years. Sites were chosen along a latitudinal gradient to capture both conditions already causing vegetation browning throughout the Norwegian Arctic, and conditions currently common at lower latitudes which are likely to become more damaging further North as climate change progresses. At each site the response of Net Ecosystem CO2 Exchange to light was measured using a LiCor LI6400 Portable Photosynthesis system and a custom vegetation chamber with

  4. Performance of municipal waste stabilization ponds in the Canadian Arctic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ragush, Colin M.; Schmidt, Jordan J.; Krkosek, Wendy H.;

    2015-01-01

    The majority of small remote communities in the Canadian arctic territory of Nunavut utilize waste stabilization ponds (WSPs) for municipal wastewater treatment because of their relatively low capital and operational costs, and minimal complexity. New national effluent quality regulations have been...... implemented in Canada, but not yet applied to Canada’s Arctic due to uncertainty related to the performance of current wastewater treatment systems. Waste stabilization pond (WSP) treatment performance is impacted by community water use, pond design, and climate. The greatest challenge arctic communities...... experience when using passive wastewater treatment technologies is the constraints imposed by the extreme climate, which is characterized as having long cold winters with short cool summers that can be solar intense. The removal of carbonaceous biochemical oxygen demand (CBOD5), total suspended solids (TSS...

  5. Short Communication: Atmospheric moisture transport, the bridge between ocean evaporation and Arctic ice melting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gimeno, L.; Vázquez, M.; Nieto, R.; Trigo, R. M.

    2015-06-01

    If we could choose a region where the effects of global warming are likely to be pronounced and considerable, and at the same time one where the changes could affect the global climate in similarly asymmetric way with respect to other regions, this would unequivocally be the Arctic. The atmospheric branch of the hydrological cycle lies behind the linkages between the Arctic system and the global climate. Changes in the atmospheric moisture transport have been proposed as a vehicle for interpreting the most significant changes in the Arctic region. This is because the transport of moisture from the extratropical regions to the Arctic has increased in recent decades, and is expected to increase within a warming climate. This increase could be due either to changes in circulation patterns which have altered the moisture sources, or to changes in the intensity of the moisture sources because of enhanced evaporation, or a combination of these two mechanisms. In this short communication we focus on the assessing more objectively the strong link between ocean evaporation trends and Arctic Sea ice melting. We will critically analyze several recent results suggesting links between moisture transport and the extent of sea-ice in the Arctic, this being one of the most distinct indicators of continuous climate change both in the Arctic and on a global scale. To do this we will use a sophisticated Lagrangian approach to develop a more robust framework on some of these previous disconnect ng results, using new information and insights. Among the many mechanisms that could be involved are hydrological (increased Arctic river discharges), radiative (increase of cloud cover and water vapour) and meteorological (increase in summer storms crossing the Arctic, or increments in precipitation).

  6. Short Communication: Atmospheric moisture transport, the bridge between ocean evaporation and Arctic ice melting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Gimeno

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available If we could choose a region where the effects of global warming are likely to be pronounced and considerable, and at the same time one where the changes could affect the global climate in similarly asymmetric way with respect to other regions, this would unequivocally be the Arctic. The atmospheric branch of the hydrological cycle lies behind the linkages between the Arctic system and the global climate. Changes in the atmospheric moisture transport have been proposed as a vehicle for interpreting the most significant changes in the Arctic region. This is because the transport of moisture from the extratropical regions to the Arctic has increased in recent decades, and is expected to increase within a warming climate. This increase could be due either to changes in circulation patterns which have altered the moisture sources, or to changes in the intensity of the moisture sources because of enhanced evaporation, or a combination of these two mechanisms. In this short communication we focus on the assessing more objectively the strong link between ocean evaporation trends and Arctic Sea ice melting. We will critically analyze several recent results suggesting links between moisture transport and the extent of sea-ice in the Arctic, this being one of the most distinct indicators of continuous climate change both in the Arctic and on a global scale. To do this we will use a sophisticated Lagrangian approach to develop a more robust framework on some of these previous disconnect ng results, using new information and insights. Among the many mechanisms that could be involved are hydrological (increased Arctic river discharges, radiative (increase of cloud cover and water vapour and meteorological (increase in summer storms crossing the Arctic, or increments in precipitation.

  7. Environmental accounting for Arctic shipping - a framework building on ship tracking data from satellites.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mjelde, A; Martinsen, K; Eide, M; Endresen, O

    2014-10-15

    Arctic shipping is on the rise, leading to increased concern over the potential environmental impacts. To better understand the magnitude of influence to the Arctic environment, detailed modelling of emissions and environmental risks are essential. This paper describes a framework for environmental accounting. A cornerstone in the framework is the use of Automatic Identification System (AIS) ship tracking data from satellites. When merged with ship registers and other data sources, it enables unprecedented accuracy in modelling and geographical allocation of emissions and discharges. This paper presents results using two of the models in the framework; emissions of black carbon (BC) in the Arctic, which is of particular concern for climate change, and; bunker fuels and wet bulk carriage in the Arctic, of particular concern for oil spill to the environment. Using the framework, a detailed footprint from Arctic shipping with regards to operational emissions and potential discharges is established. PMID:25168183

  8. Offshore produced water management: A review of current practice and challenges in harsh/Arctic environments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Jisi; Chen, Bing; Thanyamanta, Worakanok; Hawboldt, Kelly; Zhang, Baiyu; Liu, Bo

    2016-03-15

    Increasing offshore oil and gas exploration and development in harsh/Arctic environments require more effective offshore produced water management, as these environments are much more sensitive to changes in water quality than more temperate climates. However, the number and scope of studies of offshore produced water management in harsh/Arctic environments are limited. This paper reviews the current state of offshore produced water management, impacts, and policies, as well as the vulnerability, implications and operational challenges in harsh/Arctic environments. The findings show that the primary contaminant(s) of concern are contained in both the dissolved oil and the dispersed oil. The application of emerging technologies that can tackle this issue is significantly limited by the challenges of offshore operations in harsh/Arctic environments. Therefore, there is a need to develop more efficient and suitable management systems since more stringent policies are being implemented due to the increased vulnerability of harsh/Arctic environments. PMID:26781453

  9. System Identification for Indoor Climate Control

    CERN Document Server

    M., A W; H., P W M; Steskens,

    2012-01-01

    The study focuses on the applicability of system identification to identify building and system dynamics for climate control design. The main problem regarding the simulation of the dynamic response of a building using building simulation software is that (1) the simulation of a large complex building is time consuming, and (2) simulation results often lack information regarding fast dynamic behaviour (in the order of seconds), since most software uses a discrete time step, usually fixed to one hour. The first objective is to study the applicability of system identification to reduce computing time for the simulation of large complex buildings. The second objective is to research the applicability of system identification to identify building dynamics based on discrete time data (one hour) for climate control design. The study illustrates that system identification is applicable for the identification of building dynamics with a frequency that is smaller as the maximum sample frequency as used for identificat...

  10. Abrupt Climate Change and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: sensitivity and non-linear response to Arctic/sub-Arctic freshwater pulses. Collaborative research. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hill, Christopher [MIT (Massachusetts Inst. of Technology), Cambridge, MA (United States)

    2015-06-15

    This project investigated possible mechanisms by which melt-water pulses can induce abrupt change in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) magnitude. AMOC magnitude is an important ingredient in present day climate. Previous studies have hypothesized abrupt reduction in AMOC magnitude in response to influxes of glacial melt water into the North Atlantic. Notable fresh-water influxes are associated with the terminus of the last ice age. During this period large volumes of melt water accumulated behind retreating ice sheets and subsequently drained rapidly when the ice weakened sufficiently. Rapid draining of glacial lakes into the North Atlantic is a possible origin of a number of paleo-record abrupt climate shifts. These include the Younger-Dryas cooling event and the 8,200 year cooling event. The studies undertaken focused on whether the mechanistic sequence by which glacial melt-water impacts AMOC, which then impacts Northern Hemisphere global mean surface temperature, is dynamically plausible. The work has implications for better understanding past climate stability. The work also has relevance for today’s environment, in which high-latitude ice melting in Greenland appears to be driving fresh water outflows at an accelerating pace.

  11. Energy saving systems in hot humid climates

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hadjilambi, A.; D'Aquilo, A.; Rodenberg, O.

    2014-01-01

    This "designers' manual" is made during the TIDO-course AR0533 Innovation & Sustainability. The aim of this manual is the description and comparison of several systems and strategies for cooling buildings in hot humid climates. To cool down a building you need to move the energy from a space or fro

  12. Characteristics of Arctic low-tropospheric humidity inversions based on radio soundings

    OpenAIRE

    T. Nygård; Valkonen, T.; Vihma, T.

    2013-01-01

    Humidity inversions have a high potential importance in the Arctic climate system, especially for cloud formation and maintenance, in wide spatial and temporal scales. Here we investigate the climatology and characteristics of humidity inversions in the Arctic, including their spatial and temporal variability, sensitivity to the methodology applied and differences from the Antarctic humidity inversions. The study is based on data of the Integrated Global Radiosonde Archive (IGRA) from 36 Arct...

  13. A Geo Information System (GIS) for circum-arctic coastal dynamics

    OpenAIRE

    Rachold, Volker; Lack, M.; Mikhail N Grigoriev

    2003-01-01

    Coastal erosion forms a major source of the sediment, organic carbon and nutrient flux into the arctic basin. Recent studies indicate that sediment input resulting from the erosion of ice-rich, permafrost-dominated coasts might be equal to or greater than river input. The program Arctic Coastal Dynamics (ACD) has been developed to improve our understanding of circum-arctic coastal dynamics as a function of environmental forcing, coastal geology, geocryology and morphodynamic behavior. Under t...

  14. SONARC: A Sea Ice Monitoring and Forecasting System to Support Safe Operations and Navigation in Arctic Seas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephenson, S. R.; Babiker, M.; Sandven, S.; Muckenhuber, S.; Korosov, A.; Bobylev, L.; Vesman, A.; Mushta, A.; Demchev, D.; Volkov, V.; Smirnov, K.; Hamre, T.

    2015-12-01

    Sea ice monitoring and forecasting systems are important tools for minimizing accident risk and environmental impacts of Arctic maritime operations. Satellite data such as synthetic aperture radar (SAR), combined with atmosphere-ice-ocean forecasting models, navigation models and automatic identification system (AIS) transponder data from ships are essential components of such systems. Here we present first results from the SONARC project (project term: 2015-2017), an international multidisciplinary effort to develop novel and complementary ice monitoring and forecasting systems for vessels and offshore platforms in the Arctic. Automated classification methods (Zakhvatkina et al., 2012) are applied to Sentinel-1 dual-polarization SAR images from the Barents and Kara Sea region to identify ice types (e.g. multi-year ice, level first-year ice, deformed first-year ice, new/young ice, open water) and ridges. Short-term (1-3 days) ice drift forecasts are computed from SAR images using feature tracking and pattern tracking methods (Berg & Eriksson, 2014). Ice classification and drift forecast products are combined with ship positions based on AIS data from a selected period of 3-4 weeks to determine optimal vessel speed and routing in ice. Results illustrate the potential of high-resolution SAR data for near-real-time monitoring and forecasting of Arctic ice conditions. Over the next 3 years, SONARC findings will contribute new knowledge about sea ice in the Arctic while promoting safe and cost-effective shipping, domain awareness, resource management, and environmental protection.

  15. Real-Time Observations of Optical Properties of Arctic Sea Ice with an Autonomous System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, C.; Gerland, S.; Nicolaus, M.; Granskog, M. A.; Hudson, S. R.; Perovich, D. K.; Karlsen, T. I.; Fossan, K.

    2012-12-01

    The recent drastic changes in the Arctic sea ice cover have altered the interaction of solar radiation and sea ice. To improve our understanding of this interaction, a Spectral Radiation Buoy (SRB) for measuring sea ice optical properties was developed, based on a system used during the last International Polar Year at the drift of "Tara" across the Arctic Ocean. A first version of the SRB was deployed on drifting ice in the high Arctic in April 2012. It includes three Satlantic spectral radiometers (two in air, one under ice), covering the wavelength range from 347 nm to 804 nm with 3.3 nm spectral resolution, a bio-shutter to protect the under-ice radiometer, a data logger to handle and store collected data, and an Iridium satellite modem to transfer data in real-time. The under-ice radiometer is mounted on an adjustable under-ice arm, and the other instruments are mounted on a triangular frame frozen into the ice. The SRB measures simultaneously, autonomously and continuously the spectral fluxes of incident and reflected solar radiation, as well as under-ice irradiance, water temperature and water pressure every hour. So far, between mid April and early August 2012, the system has drifted about 600 km, from the starting position near the North Pole towards the Fram Strait. The data collected during this deployment, so far, already demonstrate that this system is suitable for autonomous and long-term observations over and under sea ice in harsh conditions. Along with the SRB, commercially available Ice Mass Balance buoys (IMB) were deployed on the same ice floe. In the vicinity of the site, manned baseline measurements of snow and sea ice physical properties have been carried out during the SRB deployment. The combined datasets allow description of the evolution of the ice floe during seasonal melt. With snow melt, the spectral surface albedo decreased and the transmittance through the snow and ice increased after mid-April, especially when melt ponds started to

  16. The atmospheric role in the Arctic water cycle: A review on processes, past and future changes, and their impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vihma, Timo; Screen, James; Tjernström, Michael; Newton, Brandi; Zhang, Xiangdong; Popova, Valeria; Deser, Clara; Holland, Marika; Prowse, Terry

    2016-03-01

    Atmospheric humidity, clouds, precipitation, and evapotranspiration are essential components of the Arctic climate system. During recent decades, specific humidity and precipitation have generally increased in the Arctic, but changes in evapotranspiration are poorly known. Trends in clouds vary depending on the region and season. Climate model experiments suggest that increases in precipitation are related to global warming. In turn, feedbacks associated with the increase in atmospheric moisture and decrease in sea ice and snow cover have contributed to the Arctic amplification of global warming. Climate models have captured the overall wetting trend but have limited success in reproducing regional details. For the rest of the 21st century, climate models project strong warming and increasing precipitation, but different models yield different results for changes in cloud cover. The model differences are largest in months of minimum sea ice cover. Evapotranspiration is projected to increase in winter but in summer to decrease over the oceans and increase over land. Increasing net precipitation increases river discharge to the Arctic Ocean. Over sea ice in summer, projected increase in rain and decrease in snowfall decrease the surface albedo and, hence, further amplify snow/ice surface melt. With reducing sea ice, wind forcing on the Arctic Ocean increases with impacts on ocean currents and freshwater transport out of the Arctic. Improvements in observations, process understanding, and modeling capabilities are needed to better quantify the atmospheric role in the Arctic water cycle and its changes.

  17. Creating future fit between ice and society: The institutionalization of a refuge in the Arctic to preserve sea ice system services in a changing North

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lovecraft, A. L.; Meek, C. L.

    2010-12-01

    The Arctic sea ice system can be holistically characterized as a social-ecological system that provides not only vital geophysical and biological services to climate and oceans but also provisioning services to people and industry. These services are under threat from the three major interconnected global forces of increasing traffic for shipping, security, and tourism; contaminant accumulation primarily from distant, but also related to some local marine activities, industrial production; and climatic changes, especially the warming at the poles which is diminishing the earth’s cryosphere. As the Arctic becomes more open due to sea ice loss the current strategies to preserve individual species or sea ice system functions may become obsolete in the next several decades. Concurrent to this will be the rise of traffic in areas currently not passable and an increase in exploitation of natural resources (biological and mineral) further north. This expansion of human activity does not have a suite of institutions in place that comprehensively address a future open Arctic Ocean and the coasts of the circumpolar north. Consequently, as the amount of space that can preserve a diversity of sea ice system services shrinks and the use of that space becomes crowded with interests, governments across scales need to be able to plan to balance the increase in use with preservation of services valuable both in terms of regulating and supporting planetary processes and the cultural and provisioning services more immediately tied to human flourishing. In short, it is a race between stressors and human capacity to manage them through rules minimizing their direct impact on the ice or preventing them from entering an eventual “ice shed” boundaries of a minimum summer sea ice cover. This poster explores the potential for the creation of a system of governance that would provide a refuge based on the projected summer sea ice to remain in the Arctic even as the climate shifts in

  18. Making sense of Arctic maritime traffic using the Polar Operational Limits Assessment Risk Indexing System (POLARIS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stoddard, M. A.; Etienne, L.; Fournier, M.; Pelot, R.; Beveridge, L.

    2016-04-01

    Maritime traffic volume in the Arctic is growing for several reasons: climate change is resulting in less ice in extent, duration, and thickness; economic drivers are inducing growth in resource extraction traffic, community size (affecting resupply) and adventure tourism. This dynamic situation, coupled with harsh weather, variable operating conditions, remoteness, and lack of straightforward emergency response options, demand robust risk management processes. The requirements for risk management for polar ship operations are specified in the new International Maritime Organization (IMO) International Code for Ships Operating in Polar Waters (Polar Code). The goal of the Polar Code is to provide for safe ship operations and protection of the polar environment by addressing the risk present in polar waters. Risk management is supported by evidence-based models, including threat identification (types and frequency of hazards), exposure levels, and receptor characterization. Most of the information used to perform risk management in polar waters is attained in-situ, but increasingly is being augmented with open-access remote sensing information. In this paper we focus on the use of open-access historical ice charts as an integral part of northern navigation, especially for route planning and evaluation.

  19. Acquatorialities of the Arctic Region

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Harste, Gorm

    2013-01-01

    In order to describe the Arctic system I propose using a concept functionally equivalent to territoriality, namely aquatoriality. Whether communicating about territoriality or aquatoriality, concepts and delimitations are both contingent to forms of communication systems. I will distinguish between...... six communications systems that differentiated from each other could become involved in the new deals emerging around the Arctic. Apart of an economic communication code about the Arctic, a legal code, ecological communication codes, and tourist communication codes, I will cope with the military...

  20. Climate change mitigation through livestock system transitions

    OpenAIRE

    Havlík, Petr; Valin, Hugo; Herrero, Mario; Obersteiner, Michael; Schmid, Erwin; Rufino, Mariana C.; Mosnier, Aline; Thornton, Philip K.; Böttcher, Hannes; Conant, Richard T.; Frank, Stefan; FRITZ, Steffen; Fuss, Sabine; Kraxner, Florian; Notenbaert, An

    2014-01-01

    The livestock sector contributes significantly to global warming through greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. At the same time, livestock is an invaluable source of nutrition and livelihood for millions of poor people. Therefore, climate mitigation policies involving livestock must be designed with extreme care. Here we demonstrate the large mitigation potential inherent in the heterogeneity of livestock production systems. We find that even within existing systems, autonomous transitions from ext...

  1. Area use of Arctic charr (Salvelinus alpinus) and brown trout (Salmo trutta) in an Arctic fjord system - a two year acoustic telemetry study

    OpenAIRE

    Kirkemoen, Odin Lagerborg

    2016-01-01

    The Arctic charr Salvelinus alpinus (L.) and the brown trout Salmo trutta L. are fish species with complex and comparable life strategies. However, there are also differences between the two species. The migratory behavior of Arctic charr and brown trout at sea is poorly understood compared to their far more studied behavior in fresh water. Because of the declining populations of anadromous Arctic charr the last decades, this species is particularly important to understand in order to mitigat...

  2. Comparative Phylogeography Highlights the Double-Edged Sword of Climate Change Faced by Arctic- and Alpine-Adapted Mammals

    OpenAIRE

    Lanier, Hayley C.; Gunderson, Aren M.; Weksler, Marcelo; Fedorov, Vadim B.; Olson, Link E.

    2015-01-01

    Recent studies suggest that alpine and arctic organisms may have distinctly different phylogeographic histories from temperate or tropical taxa, with recent range contraction into interglacial refugia as opposed to post-glacial expansion out of refugia. We use a combination of phylogeographic inference, demographic reconstructions, and hierarchical Approximate Bayesian Computation to test for phylodemographic concordance among five species of alpine-adapted small mammals in eastern Beringia. ...

  3. Future scientific drilling in the Arctic Ocean: Key objectives, areas, and strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stein, R.; Coakley, B.; Mikkelsen, N.; O'Regan, M.; Ruppel, C.

    2012-04-01

    In spite of the critical role of the Arctic Ocean in climate evolution, our understanding of the short- and long-term paleoceanographic and paleoclimatic history through late Mesozoic-Cenozoic times, as well as its plate-tectonic evolution, remains behind that from the other world's oceans. This lack of knowledge is mainly caused by the major technological/logistic problems in reaching this permanently ice-covered region with normal research vessels and in retrieving long and undisturbed sediment cores. With the Arctic Coring Expedition - ACEX (or IODP Expedition 302), the first Mission Specific Platform (MSP) expedition within IODP, a new era in Arctic research began (Backman, Moran, Mayer, McInroy et al., 2006). ACEX proved that, with an intensive ice-management strategy, successful scientific drilling in the permanently ice-covered central Arctic Ocean is possible. ACEX is certainly a milestone in Arctic Ocean research, but - of course - further drilling activities are needed in this poorly studied ocean. Furthermore, despite the success of ACEX fundamental questions related to the long- and short-term climate history of the Arctic Ocean during Mesozoic-Cenozoic times remain unanswered. This is partly due to poor core recovery during ACEX and, especially, because of a major mid-Cenozoic hiatus in this single record. Since ACEX, a series of workshops were held to develop a scientific drilling strategy for investigating the tectonic and paleoceanographic history of the Arctic Ocean and its role in influencing the global climate system: - "Arctic Ocean History: From Speculation to Reality" (Bremerhaven/Germany, November 2008); - "Overcoming barriers to Arctic Ocean scientific drilling: the site survey challenge" (Copenhagen/Denmark, November 2011); - Circum-Arctic shelf/upper continental slope scientific drilling workshop on "Catching Climate Change in Progress" (San Francisco/USA, December 2011); - "Coordinated Scientific Drilling in the Beaufort Sea: Addressing

  4. Changing Arctic ecosystems--measuring and forecasting the response of Alaska's terrestrial ecosystem to a warming climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pearce, John; DeGange, Anthony R.; Flint, Paul; Fondell, Tom F.; Gustine, David; Holland-Bartels, Leslie; Hope, Andrew G.; Hupp, Jerry; Koch, Josh; Schmutz, Joel; Talbot, Sandra; Ward, David; Whalen, Mary

    2012-01-01

    The Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska is a complex landscape of lakes, streams, and wetlands scattered across low relief tundra that is underlain by permafrost. This region of the Arctic has experienced a warming trend over the past three decades, leading to thawing of on-shore permafrost and the disappearance of sea ice at an unprecedented rate. The loss of sea ice has increased ocean wave action, leading to higher rates of erosion and salt water inundation of coastal habitats. Warming temperatures also have advanced the overall phenology of the region, including earlier snowmelt, lake ice thaw, and plant growth. As a result, many migratory species now arrive in the Arctic several days earlier in spring than in the 1970s. Predicted warming trends for the future will continue to alter plant growth, ice thaw, and other basic landscape processes. These changes will undoubtedly result in different responses by wildlife (fish, birds, and mammals) and the food they rely upon (plants, invertebrates, and fish). However, the type of response by different wildlife populations and their habitats-either positively or negatively-remains largely unknown.

  5. High resolution modeling of the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere region over the Arctic - GEM-AC simulations for the future climate with and without aviation emissions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porebska, Magdalena; Struzewska, Joanna; Kaminski, Jacek W.

    2016-04-01

    Upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) region is a layer around the tropopause. Perturbation of the chemical composition in the UTLS region can impact physical and dynamical processes that can lead to changes in cloudiness, precipitation, radiative forcing, stratosphere-troposphere exchange and zonal flow. The objective of this study is to investigate the potential impacts of aviation emissions on the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. In order to assess the impact of the aviation emissions we will focus on changes in atmospheric dynamic due to changes in chemical composition in the UTLS over the Arctic. Specifically, we will assess perturbations in the distribution of the wind, temperature and pressure fields in the UTLS region. Our study will be based on simulations using a high resolution chemical weather model for four scenarios of current (2006) and future (2050) climate: with and without aircraft emissions. The tool that we use is the GEM-AC (Global Environmental Multiscale with Atmospheric Chemistry) chemical weather model where air quality, free tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry processes are on-line and interactive in an operational weather forecast model of Environment Canada. In vertical, the model domain is defined on 70 hybrid levels with model top at 0.1 mb. The gas-phase chemistry includes detailed reactions of Ox, NOx, HOx, CO, CH4, ClOx and BrO. Also, the model can address aerosol microphysics and gas-aerosol partitioning. Aircraft emissions are from the AEDT 2006 database developed by the Federal Aviation Administration (USA) and the future climate simulations are based on RCP8.5 projection presented by the IPCC in the fifth Assessment Report AR5. Results from model simulations on a global variable grid with 0.5o x 0.5o uniform resolution over the Arctic will be presented.

  6. DOI/GTN-P climate and active-layer data acquired in the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska and the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urban, Frank E.; Clow, Gary D.

    2014-01-01

    This report provides data collected by the climate monitoring array of the U.S. Department of the Interior on Federal lands in Arctic Alaska over the period August 1998 to July 2013; this array is part of the Global Terrestrial Network for Permafrost, (DOI/GTN-P). In addition to presenting data, this report also describes monitoring, data collection, and quality-control methods. This array of 16 monitoring stations spans lat 68.5°N. to 70.5°N. and long 142.5°W. to 161°W., an area of approximately 150,000 square kilometers. Climate summaries are presented along with quality-controlled data. Data collection is ongoing and includes the following climate- and permafrost-related variables: air temperature, wind speed and direction, ground temperature, soil moisture, snow depth, rainfall totals, up- and downwelling shortwave radiation, and atmospheric pressure. These data were collected by the U.S. Geological Survey in close collaboration with the Bureau of Land Management and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service.

  7. DOI/GTN-P climate and active-layer data acquired in the National Petroleum Reserve: Alaska and the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, 1998-2011

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urban, Frank E.; Clow, Gary D.

    2014-01-01

    This report provides data collected by the climate monitoring array of the U.S. Department of the Interior on Federal lands in Arctic Alaska over the period August 1998 to July 2011; this array is part of the Global Terrestrial Network for Permafrost, (DOI/GTN-P). In addition to presenting data, this report also describes monitoring, data collection, and quality-control methodology. This array of 16 monitoring stations spans lat 68.5°N. to 70.5°N. and long 142.5°W. to 161°W., an area of approximately 150,000 square kilometers. Climate summaries are presented along with quality-controlled data. Data collection is ongoing and includes the following climate- and permafrost-related variables: air temperature, wind speed and direction, ground temperature and soil moisture, snow depth, rainfall, up- and downwelling shortwave radiation, and atmospheric pressure. These data were collected by the U.S. Geological Survey in close collaboration with the Bureau of Land Management and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service.

  8. DOI/GTN-P Climate and active-layer data acquired in the National Petroleum Reserve–Alaska and the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, 1998–2014

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urban, Frank E.; Clow, Gary D.

    2016-01-01

    This report provides data collected by the climate monitoring array of the U.S. Department of the Interior on Federal lands in Arctic Alaska over the period August 1998 to July 2014; this array is part of the Global Terrestrial Network for Permafrost (DOI/GTN-P). In addition to presenting data, this report also describes monitoring, data collection, and quality-control methods. The array of 16 monitoring stations spans lat 68.5°N. to 70.5°N. and long 142.5°W. to 161°W., an area of approximately 150,000 square kilometers. Climate summaries are presented along with quality-controlled data. Data collection is ongoing and includes the following climate- and permafrost-related variables: air temperature, wind speed and direction, ground temperature, soil moisture, snow depth, rainfall totals, up- and downwelling shortwave radiation, and atmospheric pressure. These data were collected by the U.S. Geological Survey in close collaboration with the Bureau of Land Management and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service.

  9. Online Mapping Systems for Climate Data Delivery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gray, S. T.; Nicholson, C. M.; Bergantino, A. R.

    2009-12-01

    Online, map-based applications have experienced an explosion in popularity over the past decade. The success of these systems is largely due to their ability to provide a spatial framework data exploration, and for the visual context (e.g., satellite images) they offer. Here we detail the development of a new online mapping system for Wyoming that will serve as a portal for the delivery of weather, climate, and water-related data for users across the state. While capitalizing on the success of previous online mapping efforts, this new system also highlights the potential for additional applications and functionality. Known as the Wyoming Internet Map Server (WyoIMS), the system brings together real-time observations and summary products from multiple federal agencies (NOAA-NWS, NRCS, USGS) to provide “one-stop-shopping” for key climatic datasets. Likewise this system is providing a platform for data delivery, archiving, and QC/QA as part of a new statewide hydroclimatic monitoring network. Moving beyond the simple transfer of data, this system also allows users to access information from resources that include state libraries and various databases that contain information related to climate and water resources. Users can, for example, select individual counties, watersheds, irrigation districts, or municipalities and download a wide range of documents and reports specific to those locations. On the whole, WyoIMS has become a catalyst for the development of new climate-related products, and a foundation for decision support with applications in water resources, wildlife management, and agriculture.

  10. Teachers, Researchers, and Students Collaborating in Arctic Climate Change Research: The Partnership Between the Svalbard REU and ARCUS PolarTREC programs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roof, S.; Warburton, J.; Oddo, B.; Kane, M.

    2007-12-01

    Since 2004, the Arctic Research Consortium of the U.S. (ARCUS) "TREC" program (Teachers and Researchers Exploring and Collaborating, now "PolarTREC") has sent four K-12 teachers to Svalbard, Norway to work alongside researchers and undergraduate students conducting climate change research as part of the Svalbard Research Experiences for Undergraduates (REU) Program. The benefits of this scientist/educator/student partnership are many. Researchers benefit from teacher participation as it increases their understanding of student learning and the roles and responsibilities of K-12 teachers. The TREC teacher contributes to the research by making observations, analyzing data, and carrying heavy loads of equipment. In collaborating with K- 12 teachers, undergraduate student participants discover the importance of teamwork in science and the need for effective communication of scientific results to a broad audience. The questions that K-12 teachers ask require the scientists and students in our program to explain their work in terms that non-specialists can understand and appreciate. The K-12 teacher provides a positive career role model and several Svalbard REU undergraduate students have pursued K-12 teaching careers after graduating. TREC teachers benefit from working alongside the researchers and by experiencing the adventures of real scientific research in a remote arctic environment. They return to their schools with a heightened status that allows them to share the excitement and importance of scientific research with their students. Together, all parties contribute to greatly enhance public outreach. With ARCUS logistical support, TREC teachers and researchers do live web conferences from the field, reaching hundreds of students and dozens of school administrators and even local politicians. Teachers maintain web journals, describing the daily activities and progress of the researcher team. Online readers from around the world write in to ask questions, which the

  11. Live from the Arctic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warnick, W. K.; Haines-Stiles, G.; Warburton, J.; Sunwood, K.

    2003-12-01

    For reasons of geography and geophysics, the poles of our planet, the Arctic and Antarctica, are places where climate change appears first: they are global canaries in the mine shaft. But while Antarctica (its penguins and ozone hole, for example) has been relatively well-documented in recent books, TV programs and journalism, the far North has received somewhat less attention. This project builds on and advances what has been done to date to share the people, places, and stories of the North with all Americans through multiple media, over several years. In a collaborative project between the Arctic Research Consortium of the United States (ARCUS) and PASSPORT TO KNOWLEDGE, Live from the Arctic will bring the Arctic environment to the public through a series of primetime broadcasts, live and taped programming, interactive virtual field trips, and webcasts. The five-year project will culminate during the 2007-2008 International Polar Year (IPY). Live from the Arctic will: A. Promote global understanding about the value and world -wide significance of the Arctic, B. Bring cutting-edge research to both non-formal and formal education communities, C. Provide opportunities for collaboration between arctic scientists, arctic communities, and the general public. Content will focus on the following four themes. 1. Pan-Arctic Changes and Impacts on Land (i.e. snow cover; permafrost; glaciers; hydrology; species composition, distribution, and abundance; subsistence harvesting) 2. Pan-Arctic Changes and Impacts in the Sea (i.e. salinity, temperature, currents, nutrients, sea ice, marine ecosystems (including people, marine mammals and fisheries) 3. Pan-Arctic Changes and Impacts in the Atmosphere (i.e. precipitation and evaporation; effects on humans and their communities) 4. Global Perspectives (i.e. effects on humans and communities, impacts to rest of the world) In The Earth is Faster Now, a recent collection of comments by members of indigenous arctic peoples, arctic

  12. Experimentally determined temperature thresholds for Arctic plankton community metabolism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. M. Holding

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate warming is especially severe in the Arctic, where the average temperature is increasing 0.4 °C per decade, two to three times higher than the global average rate. Furthermore, the Arctic has lost more than half of its summer ice extent since 1980 and predictions suggest that the Arctic will be ice free in the summer as early as 2050, which could increase the rate of warming. Predictions based on the metabolic theory of ecology assume that temperature increase will enhance metabolic rates and thus both the rate of primary production and respiration will increase. However, these predictions do not consider the specific metabolic balance of the communities. We tested, experimentally, the response of Arctic plankton communities to seawater temperature spanning from 1 °C to 10 °C. Two types of communities were tested, open-ocean Arctic communities from water collected in the Barents Sea and Atlantic influenced fjord communities from water collected in the Svalbard fjord system. Metabolic rates did indeed increase as suggested by metabolic theory, however these results suggest an experimental temperature threshold of 5 °C, beyond which the metabolism of plankton communities shifts from autotrophic to heterotrophic. This threshold is also validated by field measurements across a range of temperatures which suggested a temperature 5.4 °C beyond which Arctic plankton communities switch to heterotrophy. Barents Sea communities showed a much clearer threshold response to temperature manipulations than fjord communities.

  13. Toward Improved Estimation of the Dynamic Topography and Ocean Circulation in the High Latitude and Arctic Ocean: The Importance of GOCE

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Johannessen, J. A.; Raj, R. P.; Nilsen, J. E. Ø.;

    2014-01-01

    The Arctic plays a fundamental role in the climate system and shows significant sensitivity to anthropogenic climate forcing and the ongoing climate change. Accelerated changes in the Arctic are already observed, including elevated air and ocean temperatures, declines of the summer sea ice extent...... quantify this. Moreover, changes in the temperature and salinity of surface waters in the Arctic Ocean and Nordic Seas may also influence the flow of dense water through the Denmark Strait, which are found to be a precursor for changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation with a lead time of...... around 10 years (Hawkins and Sutton in Geophys Res Lett 35:L11603, 2008). Evidently changes in the Arctic and surrounding seas have far reaching influences on regional and global environment and climate variability, thus emphasizing the need for advanced quantitative understanding of the ocean...

  14. Source Characterization and Temporal Variation of Methane Seepage from Thermokarst Lakes on the Alaska North Slope in Response to Arctic Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None, None

    2012-09-30

    The goals of this research were to characterize the source, magnitude and temporal variability of methane seepage from thermokarst lakes (TKL) within the Alaska North Slope gas hydrate province, assess the vulnerability of these areas to ongoing and future arctic climate change and determine if gas hydrate dissociation resulting from permafrost melting is contributing to the current lake emissions. Analyses were focused on four main lake locations referred to in this report: Lake Qalluuraq (referred to as Lake Q) and Lake Teshekpuk (both on Alaska's North Slope) and Lake Killarney and Goldstream Bill Lake (both in Alaska's interior). From analyses of gases coming from lakes in Alaska, we showed that ecological seeps are common in Alaska and they account for a larger source of atmospheric methane today than geologic subcap seeps. Emissions from the geologic source could increase with potential implications for climate warming feedbacks. Our analyses of TKL sites showing gas ebullition were complemented with geophysical surveys, providing important insight about the distribution of shallow gas in the sediments and the lake bottom manifestation of seepage (e.g., pockmarks). In Lake Q, Chirp data were limited in their capacity to image deeper sediments and did not capture the thaw bulb. The failure to capture the thaw bulb at Lake Q may in part be related to the fact that the present day lake is a remnant of an older, larger, and now-partially drained lake. These suggestions are consistent with our analyses of a dated core of sediment from the lake that shows that a wetland has been present at the site of Lake Q since approximately 12,000 thousand years ago. Chemical analyses of the core indicate that the availability of methane at the site has changed during the past and is correlated with past environmental changes (i.e. temperature and hydrology) in the Arctic. Discovery of methane seeps in Lake Teshekpuk in the northernmost part of the lake during 2009

  15. A Scientific Synthesis and Assessment of the Arctic Carbon Cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayes, Daniel J.; Guo, Laodong; McGuire, A. David

    2007-06-01

    The Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP), along with the Climate and Cryosphere (CliC) Project and the International Arctic Science Committee (IASC), sponsored the Arctic Carbon Cycle Assessment Workshop, at the Red Lion Hotel in Seattle, Wash., between 27 February and 1 March 2007. The workshop was held in a general effort toward the scientific synthesis and assessment of the Arctic system carbon cycle, as well as to generate feedback on the working draft of an assessment document. The initial assessment was prepared by the Arctic carbon cycle assessment writing team, which is led by A. David McGuire (University of Alaska Fairbanks) and includes Leif Anderson (Goteborg University, Sweden), Torben Christensen (Lund University, Sweden), Scott Dallimore (Natural Resources Canada), Laodong Guo (University of Southern Mississippi), Martin Heimann (Max Planck Institute, Germany), Robie MacDonald (Department of Fisheries and Oceans, Canada), and Nigel Roulet (McGill University, Canada). The workshop brought together leading researchers in the fields of terrestrial, marine, and atmospheric science to report on and discuss the current state of knowledge on contemporary carbon stocks and fluxes in the Artie and their potential responses to a changing climate. The workshop was attended by 35 scientists representing institutions from 10 countries in addition to two representatives of the sponsor agencies (John Calder for AMAP and Diane Verseghy for CliC).

  16. Frost flowers on young Arctic sea ice: The climatic, chemical, and microbial significance of an emerging ice type

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barber, D.; Ehn, J.; Pucko, M.;

    2014-01-01

    Ongoing changes in Arctic sea ice are increasing the spatial and temporal range of young sea ice types over which frost flowers can occur, yet the significance of frost flowers to ocean-sea ice-atmosphere exchange processes remains poorly understood. Frost flowers form when moisture from seawater...... formed. The new ice and frost flowers dramatically changed the radiative and thermal environment. The frost flowers were about 5°C colder than the brine surface, with an approximately linear temperature gradient from their base to their upper tips. Salinity and δ18O values indicated that frost flowers...

  17. FRAM - FRontiers in Arctic marine Monitoring: Permanent Observations in a Gateway to the Arctic Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soltwedel, Thomas

    2015-04-01

    Our ability to understand the complex interactions of biological, chemical, physical, and geological processes in the ocean is still limited by the lack of integrative and interdisciplinary observation infrastructures. The main purpose of the open-ocean infrastructure FRAM (FRontiers in Arctic marine Monitoring) is permanent presence at sea, from surface to depth, for the provision of near real-time data on climate variability and ecosystem change in an Arctic marine environment. The Alfred-Wegener-Institut I Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung (AWI), together with partner institutes in Germany and Europe, aims at providing such infrastructure for the polar ocean as a major contribution to international efforts towards comprehensive Global Earth Observation. The FRAM Ocean Observing System targets the gateway between the North Atlantic and the Central Arctic, representing a highly climate-sensitive and rapidly changing region of the Earth system. It will serve national and international tasks towards a better understanding of the effects of change in ocean circulation, water mass properties and sea-ice retreat on Arctic marine ecosystems and their main functions and services. FRAM integrates and develops already existing observatories, i.e. the oceanographic mooring array HAFOS (Hybrid Arctic/Antarctic Float Observing System) and the Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER) site HAUSGARTEN. It will implement existing and next-generation sensors and observatory platforms, allowing synchronous observation of relevant ocean variables, as well as the study of physical, chemical and biological processes in the water column and at the seafloor. Experimental and event-triggered platforms will complement observational platforms. Products of the infrastructure are continuous long-term data with appropriate resolution in space and time, as well as ground-truthing information for ocean models and remote sensing.

  18. Migratory bird use of the coastal lagoon system of the Beaufort Sea coastline within the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, Alaska, 1983

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This report covers the migratory bird use of the coastal lagoon system of the Beaufort Sea coastline within the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, Alaska. Aerial...

  19. A Prince's tribute...and trial. Monaco's Prince Albert II followed the footsteps of his great great grandfather when he ventured the Arctic Archipelago to trace climate change, this time with IAEA Marine scientists

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Monaco's Prince Albert II followed the footsteps of his great great grandfather when he ventured to the Arctic Archipelago to track climate change, this time with IAEA Marine scientists. He undertook this trip to draw global attention to the environmental damage to the Arctic regions caused by global warming. Although far away from industrialized areas, Svalbard Island is eminently suitable to observe the evolution of climate change and long-range pollutants transported from northern European countries by water currents and from North America by winds. Using nuclear techniques, it is hoped that some of the causes of climate change can be unlocked. The first of these studies was undertaken to evaluate the shell laminations of a very long-lived marine bivalve mollusc, the Ocean Quahog. The mollusc, with a life expectancy well over a century, acts as a recording of temperature variations and water chemistry. The second project aimed at determining levels of contaminates in marine zooplankton in remote arctic environments for comparison with other climatic regions

  20. Latitudinal distribution of the recent Arctic warming

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chylek, Petr [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Lesins, Glen K [DALLHOUSIE UNIV.; Wang, Muyin [UNIV OF WASHINGTON

    2010-12-08

    Increasing Arctic temperature, disappearance of Arctic sea ice, melting of the Greenland ice sheet, sea level rise, increasing strength of Atlantic hurricanes are these impending climate catastrophes supported by observations? Are the recent data really unprecedented during the observational records? Our analysis of Arctic temperature records shows that the Arctic and temperatures in the 1930s and 1940s were almost as high as they are today. We argue that the current warming of the Arctic region is affected more by the multi-decadal climate variability than by an increasing concentration of carbon dioxide. Unfortunately, none of the existing coupled Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models used in the IPCC 2007 cIimate change assessment is able to reproduce neither the observed 20th century Arctic cIimate variability nor the latitudinal distribution of the warming.

  1. Pliocene to Pleistocene climate and environmental history of Lake El'gygytgyn, Far East Russian Arctic, based on high-resolution inorganic geochemistry data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Wennrich

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available The 3.6 Ma sediment record of Lake El'gygytgyn, Far East Russian Arctic, represents the longest continuous climate archive of the terrestrial Arctic. Its elemental composition monitored by X-ray fluorescence scanning exhibits significant changes since the Mid-Pliocene caused by climate driven variations in the primary production, postsedimentary diagenetic processes, and current activity in the lake as well as weathering processes in its catchment. During the Mid to Late Pliocene, warmer and wetter climatic conditions are reflected by elevated Si / Ti ratios, indicating enhanced diatom production in the lake. Prior to 3.3 Ma, this signal is highly masked by intensified detrital input from the catchment, visible in maxima of clastic-related proxies such as the K concentration. In addition, calcite formation in the early lake history points to enhanced nutrient flux into the lake caused by intensified weathering in its catchment. Its termination at ca. 3.3 Ma is supposed to be linked to the development of permafrost in the region triggered by a first cooling in the Mid-Pliocene. After ca. 3.0 Ma the elemental data suggest a gradual transition to Quaternary-style glacial / interglacial cyclicity. In the early Pleistocene, the cyclicity was first dominated by variations on the 41 ka obliquity band but experienced a change to a 100 ka eccentricity dominance after the Middle Pleistocene Transition at ca. 1.2 to 0.7 Ma. This clearly demonstrates the sensitivity of the Lake El'gygytgyn record to orbital forcing. A successive decrease of the baseline-levels of the redox-sensitive Mn / Fe ratio and magnetic susceptibility between 2.3 to 1.8 Ma reflects an overall change in the bottom water oxygenation due to an intensified occurrence of pervasive glacial episodes in the early Quaternary. The coincidence with major changes in the North Pacific and Bering Sea paleoceanography at ca. 1.8 Ma implies that the change in lake hydrology was caused by regional

  2. Investigating arctic cloud and radiative properties associated with the large-scale climate variability through observations, reanalysis, and mesoscale modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barton, Neil P.

    This dissertation examines two decades of Arctic cloud cover data and the variability in Arctic clouds with relation to changes in sea ice using observational and reanalysis data, as well as a state-of-the-art mesoscale model. Decadal length Arctic cloud cover data are examined because of the inherent differences within these measurements that have not been explored in previous research. Cloud cover data are analyzed from regions poleward of 60°N from several sources of visual surface observations including surface remotely sensed measurements at two locations, two spaced-based passive remotely sensed datasets (Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer Polar Pathfinder extended (APPx) and Television Infrared Observation Satellite Operational Vertical Sounder (TOVS) Polar Pathfinder (TPP)), and one reanalysis dataset (European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting Reanalysis (ERA-40)) are compared. The passive remotely sensed data are sensitive to surface type. Cloud amounts from the APPx and TPP decrease with increases in sea ice concentrations. In comparison to the surface remotely sensed measurements over sea ice, the APPx and TPP cloud amounts are consistently low. The ERA-40 output cloud cover not contain a sharp decrease from water to ice surfaces, and compares reasonably with the remotely sensed surface measurements over sea ice. During the northern hemisphere winter at land stations, the TPP and ERA-40 cloud amounts are similar. This is most likely a result of the ERA-40 model using TOVS irradiances as input data. The APPx and surface cloud amounts are similar during all seasons, but they are not in precise agreement with the TPP/ERA-40 values. Cloud amounts from the ERA-40 are also most similar to surface measurements in regions where radiosonde data are used as input. Cloud radiative forcing calculated from the ERA-40 output is examined with relation to sea ice concentrations using 20 years of data. The radiative effect of clouds varies linearly with

  3. Global climate change and contaminants--an overview of opportunities and priorities for modelling the potential implications for long-term human exposure to organic compounds in the Arctic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armitage, James M; Quinn, Cristina L; Wania, Frank

    2011-06-01

    This overview seeks to provide context and insight into the relative importance of different aspects related to global climate change for the exposure of Northern residents to organic contaminants. A key objective is to identify, from the perspective of researchers engaged in contaminant fate, transport and bioaccumulation modelling, the most useful research questions with respect to projecting the long-term trends in human exposure. Monitoring studies, modelling results, the magnitude of projected changes and simplified quantitative approaches are used to inform the discussion. Besides the influence of temperature on contaminant amplification and distribution, accumulation of organic contaminants in the Arctic is expected to be particularly sensitive to the reduction/elimination of sea-ice cover and also changes to the frequency and intensity of precipitation events (most notably for substances that are highly susceptible to precipitation scavenging). Changes to key food-web interactions, in particular the introduction of additional trophic levels, have the potential to exert a relatively high influence on contaminant exposure but the likelihood of such changes is difficult to assess. Similarly, changes in primary productivity and dynamics of organic matter in aquatic systems could be influential for very hydrophobic contaminants, but the magnitude of change that may occur is uncertain. Shifts in the amount and location of chemical use and emissions are key considerations, in particular if substances with relatively low long range transport potential are used in closer proximity to, or even within, the Arctic in the future. Temperature-dependent increases in emissions via (re)volatilization from primary and secondary sources outside the Arctic are also important in this regard. An increased frequency of boreal forest fires has relevance for compounds emitted via biomass burning and revolatilization from soil during/after burns but compound-specific analyses are

  4. Communicating Arctic Change (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serreze, M.

    2009-12-01

    Nowhere on the planet are emerging signals of climate change more visible than in the Arctic. Rapid warming, a quickly shrinking summer sea ice cover, and thawing permafrost, will have impacts that extend beyond the Arctic and may reverberate around the globe. The National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) of the University of Colorado has taken a leading role in trying to effectively communicate the science and importance of Arctic change. Our popular “Sea Ice News and Analysis” web site tracks the Arctic’s shrinking ice cover and provides scientific analysis with language that is accurate yet accessible to a wide audience. Our Education Center provides accessible information on all components of the Earth’s cryosphere, the changes being seen, and how scientists conduct research. A challenge faced by NSIDC is countering the increasing level of confusion and misinformation regarding Arctic and global change, a complex problem that reflects the low level of scientific literacy by much of the public, the difficulties many scientists face in communicating their findings in accurate but understandable terms, and efforts by some groups to deliberately misrepresent and distort climate change science. This talk will outline through examples ways in which NSIDC has been successful in science communication and education, as well as lessons learned from failures.

  5. The Greening of the Arctic IPY Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walker, D. A.; Bhatt, U. S.; Epstein, H. E.

    2008-12-01

    In 2007, Arctic sea ice extent declined to the lowest level in recorded history, 24 percent lower than the previous record in 2005. If the Arctic continues to warm over the next few decades as predicted by most arctic scientists, large changes in vegetation biomass will occur and will have important consequences to many components of the Arctic system including status of the permafrost, hydrological cycles, wildlife, and human occupation. There will also be important feedbacks to climate through changes in albedo and carbon fluxes. Changes in biomass are already happening. In Arctic Alaska from 1981 to 2001, the greenness of the landscapes as measured by satellite-derived values of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) increased by 17 percent. It is uncertain what this remarkable change in greenness means with respect to plant biomass, but current NDVI-biomass relationships suggest that an average of over 100 g m-2 have been added to the tundra of northern Alaska within the past twenty years. Other studies have shown a major increase of shrub cover across northern Alaska during the past 50 years. If the Arctic Ocean becomes ice- free during the summer, some of the largest percentage increases could occur in the coldest parts of the Arctic. The three major objectives of this project are: (1) establish baseline ground observations along two transects in North American and Eurasia that traverse the entire Arctic bioclimate gradient; (2) use remote sensing and climate change analysis to determine how changes in sea ice concentrations affect land-surface temperature and the NDVI, (3) use vegetation-change models to predict how vegetation will change in the future. Strong correlations exist between sea-ice concentrations, land-surface temperatures, and the maximum and integrated NDVI). The changes in greening have been strongest in the Beaufort Sea region. Between 1982 and 2007, sea ice in the 50-km coastal strip of Beaufort Sea area during the period 18 June

  6. Global View of the Arctic Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    2000-01-01

    -lapsed view of this remote and inhospitable region. So far, they have processed one season's worth of images. 'We can see large cracks in the ice cover, where most ice grows, ' said Kwok. 'These cracks are much longer than previously thought, some as long as 2,000 kilometers (1,200 miles),' Kwok continued. 'If the ice is thinning due to warming, we'll expect to see more of these long cracks over the Arctic Ocean. 'Scientists believe this is one of the most significant breakthroughs in the last two decades of ice research. 'We are now in a position to better understand the sea ice cover and the role of the Arctic Ocean in global climate change, ' said Kwok.Radar can see through clouds and any kind of weather system, day or night, and as the Arctic regions are usually cloud-covered and subject to long, dark winters, radar is proving to be extremely useful. However, compiling these data into extremely detailed pictures of the Arctic is a challenging task. 'This is truly a major innovation in terms of the quantities of data being processed and the novelty of the methods being used, ' said Verne Kaupp, director of the Alaska SAR Facility at the University of Alaska, Fairbanks.The mission is a joint project between JPL, the Alaska SAR Facility, and the Canadian Space Agency. Launched by NASA in 1995, the Radarsat satellite is operated by the Canadian Space Agency. JPL manages the Sea Ice Thickness Derived From High Resolution Radar Imagery project for NASA's Earth Science Enterprise, Washington, DC. The Earth Science Enterprise is dedicated to studying how natural and human-induced changes affect our global environment.

  7. Last Deglacial Arctic to Pacific Transgressions via the Bering Strait: Implications for Climate, Meltwater Source, Ecosystems and Southern Ocean Wind Strength

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nwaodua, Emmanuel C.

    The main goal of this research is to provide physical evidence of reverse flow(s), from the Arctic to the North Pacific Ocean, after the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). This is primarily essential to studies concerned with understanding how the fluctuations in strength of the Southern Ocean Wind (SOW), in conjunction with an open Bering Strait, alter the direction of water flow through the Bering Strait. Visible and Near Infrared (VNIR) derivative spectroscopy; quotient normalization and varimax rotated principal component analysis of diffuse spectral reflectance (DSR) measurements from 234 surface core samples and 2 piston cores, in addition to the USGS spectral library, were used to extract and identify these lithological compositions (in order of importance) within the study location. These compositions are chlorite + muscovite; goethite + phycoerythrin + phycocyanin; smectite; calcite+dolomite; and illite + Chlorophyll a. The Geostatistical tool, kriging, was utilized in creating the sedimentary maps of all the components. These maps were used to determine these components' modern spatial patterns. This aided in the evaluation and downcore interpretation of the component most suited for this study. The illite in illite + Chlorophyll a assemblage was deemed to be the appropriate water mass tracer for a reverse flow from the Arctic into the North Pacific; this is because of its prominence and abundance in the Mackenzie River drainage basin and on the west Arctic Sea shelf. The illite denotes these periods of meltwater pulses (MWP): MWP 1A, ˜14,600 and 13,800 Cal yrs. BP, separated by the Older Dryas; MWP 1B, ˜11,000--9,200 Cal yrs. BP; and MWP 1C, ˜8,000 Cal yrs. BP. The timing of these pulses along with previously published data on the Bering Sea shelf and the North Pacific Ocean enabled these deductions: 1) the initial opening of the Bering Strait and the flow direction after the LGM; 2) the source of these meltwater pulses and the mechanism that might drive

  8. Impacts of decline harvest of country food on nutrient intake among Inuit in Arctic Canada: impact of climate change and possible adaptation plan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Renata Rosol

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Background: The pervasive food insecurity and the diet transition away from local, nutrient-rich country foods present a public health challenge among Inuit living in the Canadian Arctic. While environmental factors such as climate change decreased the accessibility and availability of many country food species, new species were introduced into regions where they were previously unavailable. An adaptation such as turning to alternate country food species can be a viable solution to substitute for the nutrients provided by the declined food species. The objective of this study was to estimate the impact on nutrient intake using hypothetical scenarios that current commonly harvested country foods were reduced by 50%, and were replaced with alternate or new species. Methods: Data collected during the 2007–2008 Inuit Health Survey from 36 Canadian Arctic communities spanning Nunavut, the Inuvialuit Settlement Region and Nunatsiavut were used. Results: A 50% decline in consumption of fish, whale, ringed seals and birds (the food that was reported to be in decline resulted in a significant decrease in essential nutrient intake. Possible substitute foods were identified but some nutrients such as zinc and especially vitamin D were most often found lacking in the alternative diet. Conclusions: If the alternative species are not available or feasible, more expensive and less nutritionally dense store-bought foods may be sought. Given the superior quality of country foods and their association with food security, and Inuit cultural health and personal identity, developing skills and awareness for adaptation, promoting regional sharing networks, forming a co-management agency and continuing nutritional monitoring may potentially preserve the nutritional integrity of Inuit diet, and in turn their health and cultural survival.

  9. Impacts of decline harvest of country food on nutrient intake among Inuit in Arctic Canada: impact of climate change and possible adaptation plan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosol, Renata; Powell-Hellyer, Stephanie; Chan, Hing Man

    2016-01-01

    Background The pervasive food insecurity and the diet transition away from local, nutrient-rich country foods present a public health challenge among Inuit living in the Canadian Arctic. While environmental factors such as climate change decreased the accessibility and availability of many country food species, new species were introduced into regions where they were previously unavailable. An adaptation such as turning to alternate country food species can be a viable solution to substitute for the nutrients provided by the declined food species. The objective of this study was to estimate the impact on nutrient intake using hypothetical scenarios that current commonly harvested country foods were reduced by 50%, and were replaced with alternate or new species. Methods Data collected during the 2007–2008 Inuit Health Survey from 36 Canadian Arctic communities spanning Nunavut, the Inuvialuit Settlement Region and Nunatsiavut were used. Results A 50% decline in consumption of fish, whale, ringed seals and birds (the food that was reported to be in decline) resulted in a significant decrease in essential nutrient intake. Possible substitute foods were identified but some nutrients such as zinc and especially vitamin D were most often found lacking in the alternative diet. Conclusions If the alternative species are not available or feasible, more expensive and less nutritionally dense store-bought foods may be sought. Given the superior quality of country foods and their association with food security, and Inuit cultural health and personal identity, developing skills and awareness for adaptation, promoting regional sharing networks, forming a co-management agency and continuing nutritional monitoring may potentially preserve the nutritional integrity of Inuit diet, and in turn their health and cultural survival. PMID:27388896

  10. Integrated Positioning System of Autonomous Underwater Robot and Its Application in High Latitudes of Arctic Zone

    OpenAIRE

    Inzartsev, Alexander; Kamorniy, Alexander; Kiselyov, Lev; Matviyenko, Yury; Rylov, Nicolay; Rylov, Roman; Vaulin, Yury

    2010-01-01

    1. An autonomous unmanned underwater vehicle for scientific research was used for the first time in the world history under ice in the Arctic polar latitudes. The possibility of its use for bottom characteristics research was practically proved.

  11. Arctic whaling: proceedings of the International Symposium Arctic Whaling February 1983

    OpenAIRE

    H.K. 's Jacob; Snoeijing, K

    1984-01-01

    Contents: D.M. Hopkins and Louie Marincovich Jr. Whale Biogeography and the history of the Arctic Basin P.M. Kellt, J.H.W. Karas and L.D. Williams Arctic Climate: Past, Present and Future Torgny E. Vinje On the present state and the future fate of the Arctic sea ice cover P.J.H. van Bree On the biology of whales Edward Mitchell Ecology of North Atlantic Boreal and Arctic Monodontid and Mysticete Whales Allen P. McCartney History of native whaling in the Arctic and Subarctic Albert A. Dekin Jr...

  12. Arctic Newcomers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tonami, Aki

    2013-01-01

    Interest in the Arctic region and its economic potential in Japan, South Korea and Singapore was slow to develop but is now rapidly growing. All three countries have in recent years accelerated their engagement with Arctic states, laying the institutional frameworks needed to better understand an...

  13. Climate Model Diagnostic Analyzer Web Service System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, S.; Pan, L.; Zhai, C.; Tang, B.; Jiang, J. H.

    2013-12-01

    The latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report stressed the need for the comprehensive and innovative evaluation of climate models with newly available global observations. The traditional approach to climate model evaluation, which compares a single parameter at a time, identifies symptomatic model biases and errors but fails to diagnose the model problems. The model diagnosis process requires physics-based multi-variable comparisons that typically involve large-volume and heterogeneous datasets, making them both computationally- and data-intensive. To address these challenges, we are developing a parallel, distributed web-service system that enables the physics-based multi-variable model performance evaluations and diagnoses through the comprehensive and synergistic use of multiple observational data, reanalysis data, and model outputs. We have developed a methodology to transform an existing science application code into a web service using a Python wrapper interface and Python web service frameworks (i.e., Flask, Gunicorn, and Tornado). The web-service system, called Climate Model Diagnostic Analyzer (CMDA), currently supports (1) all the datasets from Obs4MIPs and a few ocean datasets from NOAA and Argo, which can serve as observation-based reference data for model evaluation and (2) many of CMIP5 model outputs covering a broad range of atmosphere, ocean, and land variables from the CMIP5 specific historical runs and AMIP runs. Analysis capabilities currently supported by CMDA are (1) the calculation of annual and seasonal means of physical variables, (2) the calculation of time evolution of the means in any specified geographical region, (3) the calculation of correlation between two variables, and (4) the calculation of difference between two variables. A web user interface is chosen for CMDA because it not only lowers the learning curve and removes the adoption barrier of the tool but also enables instantaneous use

  14. The adaptation challenge in the Arctic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ford, James D.; McDowell, Graham; Pearce, Tristan

    2015-12-01

    It is commonly asserted that human communities in the Arctic are highly vulnerable to climate change, with the magnitude of projected impacts limiting their ability to adapt. At the same time, an increasing number of field studies demonstrate significant adaptive capacity. Given this paradox, we review climate change adaptation, resilience and vulnerability research to identify and characterize the nature and magnitude of the adaptation challenge facing the Arctic. We find that the challenge of adaptation in the Arctic is formidable, but suggest that drivers of vulnerability and barriers to adaptation can be overcome, avoided or reduced by individual and collective efforts across scales for many, if not all, climate change risks.

  15. The Return of China, Post-Cold War Russia and the Arctic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bertelsen, Rasmus Gjedssø; Gallucci, Vincent

    2016-01-01

    of the world, especially Asian emerging powers, which reflects climate change and power transition/globalization. We look in depth at the cases of cross-border exchange, energy and shipping. We show that Sino-Russian relations in this region reflect the general trends of Russia and China in a post-Cold War...... globalized international political and economic system. Russia for both domestic and international reasons struggles to find its post-Cold War position in the international political and economic system, which affects its place between the West and China. Russia's entire northern boundary is the Arctic......, with the longest Arctic coastline of all of the five Arctic coastal states. To in any way relegate any parts of its Arctic marine area currently defined by the Law of Sea as its EEZ to any international or Chinese authority would be to diminish its own power. China has since the late 1970s experienced phenomenal...

  16. Marine Invasive Species Management: Adapting in the Arctic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaiser, Brooks

    2014-01-01

    as a barrier to their establishment. The same characteristics that have previously made the Arctic less open to the establishment and spread of invasive species are ones that make the potential problem so expansive. At stake are unique species and co-evolved systems that have taken millennia to develop. Small...... perturbations in the fragile Arctic ecosystems are likely to have outsized impacts both ecologically and economically. This paper discusses the optimal management of invasive species threats as a process that begins before the arrival of any species, with prevention, and continues in an integrated fashion......The rapid pace of climate change and increased human disturbance of ecosystems in the Arctic is bringing urgency to concern over non-native species introductions and their potential threats to the marine environment and its economic productivity, where before environmental conditions served...